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DATE:	4 June 2012
TO:	Robert Kelly, EPA Region 2
FROM:	James Paumier, AMEC
	EPA Contract EP-W-09-02, Task Order 0234
	AMEC Project<PHONE_NUMBER>
SUBJECT:	Air Quality Modeling for Sources Affecting the National Park Service Class I Area on St. John, Virgin Islands, in support of the Regional Haze SIP for the Virgin Islands: Final Model Runs for Visibility Reduction
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This memorandum summarizes the final modeling performed under the above referenced contract for the Virgin Islands (VI) regional haze modeling.
Section 1 discusses visibility observations at the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) site on St. John, Virgin Islands.  Visibility observations are tabulated and graphed.  Section 2 describes the various sources in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands that were modeled using the CALPUFF modeling system, including modeling conducted with reductions to emissions applied to the Hovensa sources as well as the marine vessels (ferry, cargo and cruise ships).  Section 3 describes the receptor network used in the modeling.  Model results are tabulated in Section 4.  In Section 5, possible explanations as to why the modeled visibility impacts at the IMPROVE site are less than the observed visibility impacts are briefly examined.  As part of this examination, wind roses from the two surface stations used in the modeling are presented.

1. VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS AT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IMPROVE SITE
According to the IMPROVE web site, the IMPROVE program is a cooperative measurement effort established in 1985 to aid in the creation of Federal and State implementation plans for the protection of visibility in Class I areas.  The objectives of the IMPROVE program are:
      (1) to establish current visibility and aerosol conditions in mandatory class I areas;
      (2) to identify chemical species and emission sources responsible for existing man-made visibility impairment;
      (3) to document long-term trends for assessing progress towards the national visibility goal; and
      (4) to provide regional haze monitoring representing all visibility-protected federal class I areas where practical.
Figure 1 shows the location of the IMPROVE monitor (red balloon icon) on St. John, north of Cruz Bay, which is the main port on St. John.  The Virgin Islands (VI) National Park, a Class I area over 7000 acres in size, is on the island of St. John.  Additionally, Hassel Island, immediately south of Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas (not shown in the figure) and about 15 kilometers to the west of Cruz bay and the IMPROVE monitor location, is also part of the VI National Park.  To assess visibility impacts at Class I areas, the National Park Service has predefined receptor locations in Class I areas at which visibility modeling is performed.  For the VI National Park, 75 receptors have been defined, with one of those receptors on Hassel Island.  Several Class I receptor locations for modeling purposes are shown (blue balloon icons) in Figure 1.

   Figure 1.  Location of the IMPROVE Receptor on St. John, Virgin Islands.
Particulate matter samples are taken every three days at the IMPROVE monitor.  From these data, we can calculate the impact of particulate matter on visibility at the site.  Table 1 shows the observed annual average, best 20% of days and worst 20% of days at the IMPROVE monitor on St. John for the period 2007-2010.
IMPROVE monitoring data tables present the following information:
   * BEXT (Source)  -  calculated beta extinction coefficient (total IMPROVE monitor value  -  modeled annual average background);
   * BEXT (BKG)  -  background beta extinction coefficient (from modeled annual background);
   * BEXT (Total)  -  beta extinction coefficient recorded at IMPROVE monitor;
   * BEXT SO4  -  beta extinction coefficient from IMPROVE monitor SO4;
   * BEXT NO3  -  beta extinction coefficient from IMPROVE monitor NO3;
   * BEXT OC  -  beta extinction coefficient from IMPROVE monitor organic carbon;
   * BEXT EC  -  beta extinction coefficient from IMPROVE monitor elemental carbon;
   * BEXT PMC  -  beta extinction coefficient from IMPROVE monitor coarse particulate matter;
   * BEXT PMF  -  beta extinction coefficient from IMPROVE monitor fine particulate matter;
   * BEXT NO2  -  beta extinction coefficient from IMPROVE monitor NO2;
   * dv (total)  -  deciview haze index from monitor emissions + modeled background;
   * dv (bkg)  -  deciview haze index from modeled background; and
   * ∆dv  -  change in deciview haze index = total monitored  -  background modeled emissions.
The graphs that follow Table 1 summarize the observed daily extinction by species at the IMPROVE site on St. John.  The light blue background in the cells is only meant to more easily identify the years.
Ammonium nitrate fine (ammNO3f), ammonium sulfate-fine (ammSO4f), elemental carbon-fine (ECf), organic carbon-fine (OCMf), and sea salt-fine (SeaSaltf) are displayed.  Omitted from the figures are coarse mass extinction, soil extinction (fine), and Rayleigh scattering.
Since observations are taken every third day, observations are reported on no more than 121 or 122 days each year.  For 2007, visibility data were reported for 84 days; for 2008, 2009, and 2010, the number of days reporting is 113, 114, and 118, respectively.  This corresponds to 17 days for the "Best 20%" and 17 for the "Worst 20%" days for 2007, whereas, for 2008-2010, 23 days correspond to the "Best 20%" and "Worst 20%".  Labels for the "Best 20%" (B) and "Worst 20%" (W) of days based on aerosol extinction (which includes coarse mass extinction, soil extinction (fine)) are shown above the bars.
Note that for 2007-2009, the maximum on the y-axis is 60 Mm[-1], whereas for 2010 it is 80 Mm[-1].

Table 1.  IMPROVE Monitoring Site - Observations, 2007-2010

                                 BEXT (Source)
                                  BEXT (BKG)*
                                 BEXT (Total)
                                   BEXT SO4
                                   BEXT NO3
                                    BEXT OC
                                    BEXT EC
                                   BEXT PMC
                                   BEXT PMF
                                   BEXT NO2
                                  BEXT Ssalt
                                      dv
                                    (total)
                                   dv (bkg)
                                     ∆dv

                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]

                         2007 IMPROVE - Annual Average
                                     24.78
                                     15.60
                                     40.38
                                     9.14
                                     2.01
                                     0.68
                                     0.49
                                     6.76
                                     2.47
                                      --
                                     7.83
                                     13.96
                                     4.45
                                     9.51
                         2007 IMPROVE - Best 20% Days
                                     10.08
                                     15.60
                                     25.68
                                     5.15
                                     1.38
                                     0.48
                                     0.44
                                     3.13
                                     0.25
                                      --
                                     3.84
                                     9.43
                                     4.45
                                     4.99
                         2007 IMPROVE - Worst 20% Days
                                     50.06
                                     15.60
                                     65.66
                                     14.93
                                     3.59
                                     1.23
                                     0.61
                                     14.15
                                     8.44
                                      --
                                     11.70
                                     18.82
                                     4.45
                                     14.37
                         2008 IMPROVE - Annual Average
                                     24.20
                                     15.60
                                     39.80
                                     7.66
                                     1.80
                                     0.70
                                     0.48
                                     6.96
                                     2.13
                                      --
                                     9.07
                                     13.81
                                     4.45
                                     9.37
                         2008 IMPROVE - Best 20% Days
                                     8.95
                                     15.60
                                     24.55
                                     4.67
                                     1.14
                                     0.59
                                     0.35
                                     2.96
                                     0.30
                                      --
                                     3.55
                                     8.98
                                     4.45
                                     4.54
                         2008 IMPROVE - Worst 20% Days
                                     48.15
                                     15.60
                                     63.75
                                     11.57
                                     2.87
                                     0.80
                                     0.32
                                     14.11
                                     7.42
                                      --
                                     15.66
                                     18.52
                                     4.45
                                     14.08
                         2009 IMPROVE - Annual Average
                                     26.00
                                     15.60
                                     41.60
                                     8.94
                                     1.75
                                     1.10
                                     0.78
                                     6.94
                                     2.32
                                      --
                                     8.76
                                     14.26
                                     4.45
                                     9.81
                         2009 IMPROVE - Best 20% Days
                                     11.61
                                     15.60
                                     27.21
                                     5.87
                                     1.31
                                     0.48
                                     0.41
                                     3.28
                                     0.25
                                      --
                                     4.63
                                     10.01
                                     4.45
                                     5.56
                         2009 IMPROVE - Worst 20% Days
                                     51.40
                                     15.60
                                     67.00
                                     15.31
                                     2.66
                                     2.83
                                     2.27
                                     13.87
                                     8.36
                                      --
                                     10.71
                                     19.02
                                     4.45
                                     14.57
                         2010 IMPROVE - Annual Average
                                     30.14
                                     15.60
                                     45.74
                                     10.86
                                     1.94
                                     1.06
                                     1.61
                                     8.34
                                     3.34
                                      --
                                     7.57
                                     15.20
                                     4.45
                                     10.75
                         2010 IMPROVE - Best 20% Days
                                     10.29
                                     15.60
                                     25.89
                                     5.42
                                     1.18
                                     0.19
                                     0.31
                                     3.40
                                     0.18
                                      --
                                     4.21
                                     9.51
                                     4.45
                                     5.06
                         2010 IMPROVE - Worst 20% Days
                                     64.36
                                     15.60
                                     79.96
                                     17.69
                                     3.21
                                     3.31
                                     5.49
                                     18.16
                                     12.39
                                      --
                                     8.71
                                     20.79
                                     4.45
                                     16.34
* Background [BEXT (BKG)] is assumed to be the same as average modeled background.   All values other than BEXT (Total) in this table rely on the assumed background.

2. SOURCES MODELED
AMEC developed a list of point sources and area sources for use in this modeling effort.  Most of the sources and the associated parameters and emission rates were defined for the March 2011 modeling.  Table 1 shows the sources modeled with the respective emission rates for SO2, NOX, fine particulates, and elemental carbon.  In this phase of the modeling, emission rates from BART-eligible sources were used (Hovensa, St. Croix WAPA, and St. Thomas WAPA).  The sources are also divided into several logical categories to provide group-specific model results based on groups identified in the Task Order and several additional groups provided by the Task Order Project Officer (TOPO).
Several sources of information were used to develop the list of sources, groupings of sources, emission rates, and source parameters.  These include:
   * AEG Anguilla Power Renewable Energy Power Generation Project (Table 6-4) with source parameters and emission rates (received 12/2010);
   * AEG Bovoni Power, LLC (Table A-5) Nearby Inventory with source parameters and emission rates (received 12/15/2011);
   * The spreadsheet St. John  -  Emissions Calculations.xls with emissions data for a number of sources on St. John (received 12/2010);
   * Development of 2002 Regional Haze Area, Point, Nonroad Mobile, and Onroad Mobile Source Emission Inventories For St. John, Virgin Island - Draft Report (received 12/2010);
   * Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Factbook; and
   * Email correspondence.
The sources in each group are explained in more detail in the discussion below.
Group 1 - St. Croix  -  Hovensa Point Sources
Sources in this group were selected from Table 6-4 of the AEG Anguilla Project Report.  In the original modeling (prior to modeling BART-eligible sources), this group contained seven sources (six of the largest sources and one aggregate of the remaining sources), representing a total of approximately 75% of St. Croix's total emissions.  Since there were over 170 sources on St. Croix, the model was limited to major emission points which were the electric utilities and the top 3 emitters of PM, SO2, or NOX.  St. Croix sources were split between Groups 1 and 6, with Group 1 representing only the Hovensa refinery, and Group 6 representing Water and Power Authority (WAPA) St. Croix sources.
For this modeling effort, BART-eligible boilers, heaters, flares, and reciprocating gas compressors at Hovensa were explicitly modeled.  The result was 65 BART-eligible point sources.  The aggregated source consisted of the nonBART sources.  Emission rates for the aggregate source do not include any BART-eligible sources (i.e., no double counting of emissions).
Emissions regarding the flares were provided as a sum for the entire facility, with potential to emit rates of 1200 tpy SO2, 1897 tpy NOX, and negligible PM emissions.  Ten flares were identified at Hovensa in the AEG Anguilla inventory, with zero emissions for two of them.  Per email correspondence on May 11, 2012, only five flares are BART-eligible.  A proportion of the total emissions (5 BART flares / 8 total flares) was used to approximate the BART flare emissions.
Additional model runs were conducted for each year applying selected emissions reductions: 1) reductions to Hovensa emissions based on a Consent Decree and 2) reductions to the marine vessels (ferries, cargo ships, and cruise ships).  The reductions are discussed prior to Table 2.
Group 2  -  Actual St. John Point Sources
Sources in this category represent the actual point sources originally provided to AMEC by the TOPO for the original modeling completed in March 2011.  Stack parameters for these sources have been estimated by AMEC using parameters for generic generators, since no such information was presented with the emissions calculations.  Two additional sources obtained from the AEG Bovoni Power inventory were added for the current modeling effort: the Virgin Grand generator and the Virgin Grand incinerator.  This category consists of seven (7) point sources.
Group 3  -  Aggregate St. John Marine Sources
Marine sources at St. John include all ferry, cruise ship, and cargo ship emissions specified in the St. John  -  Emissions Calculations spreadsheet.  Each vessel type was modeled as a separate aggregated source (e.g. all ferry emissions as a single source).  The three different types of marine vessels were represented with different stack parameters obtained from typical cruise ship data specifications. An additional model run with reduced emissions was also conducted.  As a conservative assumption, all three types of marine sources were modeled as point sources located at the Cruz Bay docks, rather than spreading the emissions over a greater area.
As noted above for the Hovensa source group, an alternative set of emission rates for the marine sources at St. John was modeled.  The reductions are discussed prior to Table 2.
Group 4  -  Sample Puerto Rico Sources
Emissions and stack location are based on the AES Puerto Rico, L.P. 454 MW coal fired power plant in Guayama, Puerto Rico.  The stack parameters are based on a similarly sized coal-fired boiler.
Group 5 - Actual St. Thomas Sources
In the current modeling effort this source group was removed because the source was included as one of the St. Thomas WAPA sources in the newly added Group 14.
Group 6  -  Other St. Croix Sources
Sources in this category are from Table 6-4 of the AEG Anguilla Power report and emissions rates were updated, if necessary, with rates from the AEG Bovoni Power report.  This group consists of eight sources  -  seven individual point sources and 1 aggregated point source.  Six of the individual point sources are St. Croix WAPA and the seventh is the large boiler at Renaissance Group I.L.L.P.  The aggregated source consists of seven point sources, including the large and small generators at Renaissance, the Buccaneer Hotel, Divi Carina Bay Resort, Carambola Resort, and oil burners at Virgin Island Asphalt Products Corporation.  The location and stack parameters for the aggregated source were conservatively represented by placing the source in the same location as the largest emitter of PM10 on St. Croix, the Hovensa wet scrubber, which was modeled in Group 1.  The large boiler at Renaissance accounts for about 95% of the SO2 emissions and 65% of the NOX emissions in the two nonWAPA sources.
For this modeling effort, two boilers at WAPA, model IDs WPSX10 and WPSX11, were modeled as BART-eligible sources.  Per data provided in a spreadsheet on February 23, 2012 and a follow-up email on March 6, the 3-year average actual emissions were used for the St. Croix BART-eligible WAPA sources.   The other four St. Croix WAPA sources were not BART-eligible and emission rates from the AEG Anguilla report were used.

Group 7  -  Aggregate British Virgin Islands (BVI) Sources
This category represents emissions from total oil usage on the BVI.  The oil usage data was selected from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Factbook (1000 bbl/day).  The Department of Energy (DOE) website indicates that residual oil is not consumed in significant quantity in the BVIs, so only a distillate emission factor was estimated.  The distillate oil emission rates were calculated from AP-42, Chapter 1.3 (Fuel Oil Combustion), conservatively assuming a sulfur content of 0.5% (Source: Latin America and the Caribbean Sulphur Levels in Diesel Fuel, UNEP).
AMEC created an area source representative of the island of Tortola.  Tortola is the closest of the BVIs to St. John.  The area source represents the largest city on Tortola, Road Town.  It is represented as a 2.5 km[2] square area source, covering the majority of the land area of Road Town.
Group 8  -  Simulated BVI Sources
The modeled area source represents general land clearing via open burning.  The emission factors used were taken from AP-42 Chapter 11.9, Table 11.9-1 for overburden.  Section 13.2.3, "Heavy Construction," advises using this factor for general land clearing.  The area modeled is 100m x 100m and the location is based on sensible and possible locations of future land clearing.
Group 9  -  St. John Paved and Unpaved Road Fugitive Sources
This group was modeled with an 80% reduction in the emission rates from the March 2011 from paved and unpaved roads
A single area source was modeled to represent fugitive dust emissions from roadways on St. John.  The emission rates were from the St. John  -  Emissions Calculations spreadsheet.  Paved roads are responsible for 32.7 tons per year (TPY) of particulate matter emissions on St. Johns, while unpaved roads produce 99.4 TPY.  The area modeled is a 5 kilometer by 10.4 kilometer (km) rectangular region, representing an area equal to the 52 km[2] land area of St. John.
Group 10  -  Aggregate St. John Burning
A single area source was modeled to represent all sources of fires on St. John, including open burning, forest fires, and structure fires.  The emission rates were from the spreadsheet St. John  -  Emissions Calculations.xls.  The area is conservatively modeled as 8.6km by 3.4km rectangle (about 29.4 km[2]) that is contained mostly within the land mass of St. John.
Group 11  -  St. John Residential Boilers
The modeled area source represents emissions from residential boiler usage on St. John.  The emission rates were from the spreadsheet St. John  -  Emissions Calculations.xls.  The area is conservatively modeled as 3km by 3km square region, located at Cruz Bay, St. John.
Group 12  -  St. John Miscellaneous Industrial Processes/Construction
The modeled area source represents emissions from other industrial sources on St. John.  There are two sources represented by Group 12.  The Majestic Concrete facility emits 0.32 Tons per Year of particulate matter, and residential construction emits 10.7 Tons per Year.  The emission rates were from the spreadsheet St. John  -  Emissions Calculations.xls.  The area is conservatively modeled as 3km by 3km square region, located at Cruz Bay, St. John.
Group 13  -  St. John Motor Vehicle Emission Sources
The modeled area source represents motor vehicle emissions on St. John.  The emission rates were provided in an e-mail from the TOPO.  The area modeled is a 5 km x 10.4 km rectangular region, representing an area equal to the 52 km[2] land area of St. John, the same as in Group 9 for paved/unpaved roads.
Group 14  -  St. Thomas - WAPA Sources
This group is new for the March 2012 visibility modeling effort and consists of 10 combustion and boiler sources at the WAPA facilities on St. Thomas.  Data from the AEG Bovoni Power inventory report were used to develop the input source parameters and emission rates for the modeling.
The single source that was in Group 5 in the March 2011 modeling was moved to this group and the emission rates updated.  Emissions based on the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority (VIWAPA)  -  Unit 23, at Krum Bay were modeled.  It is a 39 MW turbine that burns No. 2 distillate fuel oil.  The stack parameters were based on an engineering estimate for a similarly sized turbine.
For this modeling effort, two boilers at WAPA, model IDs WPSX10 and WPSX11, were modeled as BART-eligible sources.  Per data provided in a spreadsheet on February 23, 2012 and a follow-up email on March 6, the 3-year average actual emissions were used for the St. Croix BART-eligible WAPA sources.   The other four St. Croix WAPA sources were not BART-eligible and emission rates from the AEG Anguilla report were used.
Group 15  -  St. Thomas - Other Sources
This group is new for the March 2012 visibility modeling effort and consists of 13 point sources and one area source on St. Thomas.  Data from the AEG Bovoni Power inventory report were used to develop the input source parameters and emission rates for the modeling.  Sources in this group included several resorts, the St. Thomas Hospital, and asphalt facility, and operations at a quarry.  One of the quarry locations was modeled as a point source (crushing and handling) and another was modeled as an area source (blasting/drilling operations).
Group 17  -  St. John Non-road
A spreadsheet with non-road sources on St. john was received on May 16, 2012 and included in the full model runs.  This source group consisted of non-road gasoline and diesel vehicles (e.g., light commercial and farm), equipment (e.g. lawn and garden), and other (e.g., compressed natural gas) sources.
The area was modeled as a 5 km x 10.4 km rectangular region, representing an area equal to the 52 km[2] land area of St. John, the same as in Group 9 for paved/unpaved roads.
0.1 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
As noted above, CALPUFF and CALPOST were rerun for all four years using the same emissions as shown in Table 2, except with the following emissions reductions: 1) Hovensa Consent Decree and 2) Reductions to the marine vessels (ferries, cargo ships, and cruise ships).
The reductions from the consent decree were 3,460 tons/year for SO2, 4,744 tons/year for NOX, and 17 tons/year for particulates.  The total reductions were applied to a subset of the sources identified in Table 2 as follows: 10% to B1155 (model ID 3), 10% to B33012 (model ID 4), 10% to B1151_4 (model ID 80), 10% to B3303_4 (model ID 81), and 60% to the aggregate source (model ID 7).  The reason for applying the consent decree reductions to selected sources was to minimize the amount of recalculations that would be required.  Another reason for applying the reductions in this manner is that the Hovensa sources are on St. Croix, approximately 70 kilometers from the modeled receptor network.
In addition to the Hovensa consent decree reductions, emissions from marine sources  -  ferries, cargo ships, and cruise ships -  were reduced by 85% for PM and SO2, and 80% for NOX.  The following table shows the reduced emissions used in the modeling.

                             Location and Model ID
                                   SO2 (g/s)
                                   NOX (g/s)
                                   PMF (g/s)
                                   EC (g/s)
Hovensa B1155
                                     13.50
                                     18.62
                                     2.86
                                   2.86E-02
Hovensa B33012
                                     9.08
                                     11.32
                                     2.29
                                   2.29E-02
Hovensa B1151_4
                                     8.85
                                     12.00
                                     2.26
                                   2.26E-02
Hovensa B3303_4
                                     26.88
                                     18.59
                                     4.47
                                   4.47E-02
Hovensa HOVENS (aggregated source)
                                     5.00
                                     16.03
                                     25.67
                                   2.57E-01
St. John FERRY
                                   3.675E-01
                                     1.70
                                   3.11E-02
                                   3.11E-04
St. John CRUISE
                                   3.63E-02
                                   1.25E-01
                                   5.65E-03
                                   5.65E-05
St. John CARGO
                                   2.12E-03
                                   5.52E-03
                                   2.59E-04
                                   2.59E-06

Table 2.  Sources, Source Groups, and Modeled Emission Rates
                                     Group
                                       #
                                 Source Group
                                   Model ID
                                     Type
                                  Model ID #
                                   Location
                                  Description
                                      SO2
                                     (g/s)
                                      NOx
                                     (g/s)
                                      PMF
                                     (g/s)
                                      EC*
                                     (g/s)
                                    Comment
                                       1
                   St. Croix - Hovensa BART-eligible Sources
                                     B1155
                                     Point
                                       3
                                   St. Croix
Nos. 3 and 5 Boilers
                                     23.44
                                     32.43
                                     2.91
                                   2.91E-02

                                    B33012
                                     Point
                                       4
                                   St. Croix
Nos. 6 and 7 Boilers
                                     19.03
                                     25.04
                                     2.34
                                   2.34E-02

                                    B1151_4
                                     Point
                                      80
                                   St. Croix
Nos. 1 and 4 Boilers
                                     18.77
                                     25.72
                                     2.31
                                   2.31E-02

                                    B3303_4
                                     Point
                                      81
                                   St. Croix
Nos. 8 and 9 Boilers
                                     36.83
                                     32.21
                                     4.52
                                   4.52E-02

                                    G1101E
                                     Point
                                      82
                                   St. Croix
GT#1 Turbine
                                     3.90
                                     23.18
                                   3.51E-01
                                   3.51E-03

                                    G1101F
                                     Point
                                      83
                                   St. Croix
GT#2 Turbine
                                     3.90
                                     23.18
                                   3.51E-01
                                   3.51E-03

                                    G1101G
                                     Point
                                      84
                                   St. Croix
GT#3 Turbine
                                     3.90
                                     23.18
                                   3.51E-01
                                   3.51E-03

                                     G3404
                                     Point
                                      85
                                   St. Croix
GT#4 Turbine
                                     4.63
                                     23.29
                                   3.71E-01
                                   3.71E-03

                                     G3405
                                     Point
                                      86
                                   St. Croix
GT#5 Turbine
                                     4.63
                                     22.05
                                   3.71E-01
                                   3.71E-03

                                     G3406
                                     Point
                                      87
                                   St. Croix
GT#6 Turbine
                                     4.63
                                     22.05
                                   3.71E-01
                                   3.71E-03

                                     G3407
                                     Point
                                      88
                                   St. Croix
GT#7 Turbine
                                     4.63
                                     22.05
                                   3.71E-01
                                   3.71E-03

                                     G3408
                                     Point
                                       6
                                   St. Croix
GT#8 (Gas Turbine)
                                     4.82
                                     28.82
                                    4.4E-01
                                    4.4E-03

                                     G3409
                                     Point
                                      89
                                   St. Croix
GT#9 Turbine
                                     1.50
                                     4.32
                                   4.03E-01
                                   4.03E-03

                                    Various
                                     Point
                                   100 -137
                                   St. Croix
38 Heaters
                                  See Table 3

                                  C200A, B, C
                                     Point
                                   138 - 140
                                   St. Croix
Reciprocating Gas Compressors
                                      0.0
                                   9.52E-01
                                   5.75E-03
                                   5.75E-05

                                 C4601A, B, C
                                     Point
                                  141  -  143
                                   St. Croix
Reciprocating Gas Compressors
                                      0.0
                                     10.90
                                   2.59E-02
                                   2.59E-04

                                    Various
                                     Point
                                  144  -  151
                                   St. Croix
Flares
                                     2.70
                                     4.26
                                      0.0
                                      0.0

                                   Hovensa-
                                    nonBART

                                    HOVENS
                                     Point
                                       7
                                   St. Croix
                              St. Croix - Hovensa
                              Aggregated Sources
                                     64.72
                                     97.91
                                     25.96
                                    0.2596

                                       2
                         Actual St. John Point Sources
                                    CANEEL
                                     Point
                                       8
                                   St. John
Caneel Bay Resort  -
Backup Generators
                                     0.015
                                   7.26E-03
                                   8.64E-04
                                   8.64E-06

                                    GALLOW
                                     Point
                                       9
                                   St. John
Gallows Point Resort  -
Dryers and Backup Generator
                                   1.15E-05
                                   5.51E-04
                                   2.44E-06
                                   1.15E-07

                                    GRANDE
                                     Point
                                      10
                                   St. John
Grande Bay Resort  -
Backup Generator
                                   4.66E-03
                                   2.39E-03
                                   2.61E-04
                                   2.61E-06

                                     MYRAH
                                     Point
                                      11
                                   St. John
Myrah Keating Smith Health Center - Backup Gen & WH
                                   5.92E-04
                                   7.70E-04
                                   3.47E-05
                                   3.47E-07

                                    WPSJ_U7
                                     Point
                                      12
                                   St. John
VIWAPA St. John - Generator
                                     0.630
                                     10.21
                                    0.1764
                                   1.764E-03

                                    VGGENE
                                     Point
                                      37
                                   St. John
Virgin Grand Generator
                                     0.540
                                     3.510
                                     0.680
                                   6.80E-03

                                    VGINCI
                                     Point
                                      38
                                   St. John
Virgin Grand Incinerator
                                     0.050
                                     0.010
                                     0.130
                                   1.30E-03

                                       3
                       Aggregate St. John Marine Sources
                                     FERRY
                                     Point
                                      13
                                   St. John
All Ferries Servicing St. John  -
at Cruz Bay Docks
                                     2.45
                                      8.5
                                   2.07E-01
                                   2.07E-03

                                    CRUISE
                                     Point
                                      14
                                   St. John
All Cruise Ships Servicing St. John -  at Cruz Bay Docks
                                   2.42E-01
                                   6.27E-01
                                   3.77E-02
                                   3.77E-04

                                     CARGO
                                     Point
                                      15
                                   St. John
All Cargo Ships Servicing St. John - at Cruz Bay Docks
                                   1.41E-02
                                   2.76E-02
                                   1.73E-03
                                   1.73E-05

                                       4
                          Sample Puerto Rico Sources
                                    PRPOWE
                                     Point
                                      16
                                  Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico AES Power Plant
                                     13.03
                                     59.2
                                     17.92
                                   1.79E-01

                                       5
                           Actual St. Thomas Sources
                                    STPOWER
                                     Point
                                      17
                                  St. Thomas
St. Thomas Power Plant

                       Removed  -  now part of Group 14
                                   (WPST_23)
                                       6
                            Other St. Croix Sources
                                     CROIX
                                     Point
                                      18
                                   St. Croix
St. Croix Misc. Aggregated Sources
                                     5.21
                                     37.62
                                     2.43
                                   2.43E-02

                                    VBOILER
                                     Point
                                      19
                                   St. Croix
St. Croix Renaissance Grp Boiler
                                    110.00
                                     68.00
                                     9.80
                                   9.80E-02

                             St. Croix VIWAPA BART
                                    WPSX10
                                     Point
                                      20
                                   St. Croix
VIWAPA - Boiler
                                    0.6329
                                    0.06329
                                   7.77E-01
                                   7.77E-03
                            Reported Emissions (1)

                                    WPSX11
                                     Point
                                      21
                                   St. Croix
VIWAPA - Boiler
                                     8.716
                                     8.832
                                     1.056
                                   1.056E-02

                           St. Croix VIWAPA nonBART
                                    WPSX16
                                     Point
                                      22
                                   St. Croix
VIWAPA - Combustion Turbine
                                     8.543
                                     15.93
                                     1.525
                                   1.525E-02

                                    WPSX17
                                     Point
                                      23
                                   St. Croix
VIWAPA - Combustion Turbine
                                     8.467
                                     13.14
                                     1.512
                                   1.512E-02

                                    WPSX19
                                     Point
                                      24
                                   St. Croix
VIWAPA - Combustion Turbine
                                     8.001
                                     12.98
                                     2.268
                                   2.268E-02

                                    WPSX20
                                     Point
                                      25
                                   St. Croix
VIWAPA - Combustion Turbine
                                     8.089
                                     12.98
                                     2.268
                                   2.268E-02

                                       7
                             Aggregate BVI Sources
                                    TORTAR
                                     Area
                                       1
                                    Tortola
Tortola - BVI Total Combustion of Oil as Area Source
(2,500,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                     15.65
                                      4.4
                                   7.28E-01
                                   7.28E-03

                                       8
                             Simulated BVI Sources
                                    TORTBU
                                     Area
                                       2
                                    Tortola
Tortola - Open Burning
(10,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                      --
                                     0.416
                                     1.77
                                   1.77E-02

                                       9
                                St. John Roads
                                    SJROAD
                                     Area

                                       3
                                   St. John
St. John - Paved and Unpaved Road Fugitive Emissions (52,000,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                      --
                                      --
                                    0.7599
                                   7.599E-03

                                      10
                          Aggregate St. John Burning
                                    SJBURN
                                     Area
                                       4
                                   St. John
St. John - All Open Burning, Forest Fires Etc.
(29,240,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                   8.36E-04
                                   1.39E-04
                                   2.44E-02
                                   2.44E-04

                                      11
                               St. Johns Boilers
                                     SJRES
                                     Area
                                       5
                                   St. John
St. John - Residential Boilers
(9,000,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                   4.73E-04
                                   1.06E-01
                                   3.94E-04
                                   3.94E-06

                                      12
                           St. John Misc. Industrial
                                    SJMISC
                                     Area
                                       6
                                   St. John
St. John - Misc. Industrial (Concrete, Construction)
(9,000,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                      --
                                      --
                                    0.31767
                                   3.18E-03

                                      13
                               St. John Vehicle
                                     SJVEH
                                     Area
                                       7
                                   St. John
St. John - On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions
(52,000,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                   4.63E-02
                                   7.20E-01
                                    0.02112
                                   2.11E-04

                                      14
                                  St. Thomas
                                     WAPA
                                    WPST_23
                                     Point
                                      26
                                  St. Thomas
Combustion Turbine
                                     8.966
                                     12.01
                                     3.78
                                   3.78E-02

                                    WPST_22
                                     Point
                                      27
                                  St. Thomas
Combustion Turbine
                                     6.564
                                     9.702
                                     2.848
                                   2.848E-02

                                    WPST_18
                                     Point
                                      28
                                  St. Thomas
Combustion Turbine
                                     8.656
                                     12.98
                                   6.30E-01
                                   6.30E-03

                                    WPST_15
                                     Point
                                      29
                                  St. Thomas
Combustion Turbine
                                     8.417
                                     14.49
                                   6.30E-01
                                   6.30E-03

                                  St. Thomas
                                     WAPA
                                 BART-eligible
                                    WPST_14
                                     Point
                                      30
                                  St. Thomas
Combustion Turbine
                                      0.0
                                      0.0
                                      0.0
                                      0.0
                            Reported Emissions (1)

                                    WPST_13
                                     Point
                                      31
                                  St. Thomas
Boiler
                                     12.42
                                     8.50
                                   5.37E-01
                                   5.37E-03

                                    WPST_12
                                     Point
                                      32
                                  St. Thomas
Combustion Turbine
                                    0.3452
                                     2.685
                                   3.84E-02
                                   3.84E-04

                                    WPST_11
                                     Point
                                      33
                                  St. Thomas
Boiler
                                     7.575
                                     6.147
                                   8.06E-01
                                   8.06E-03

                                  St. Thomas
                                     WAPA
                                    WPST_10
                                     Point
                                      34
                                  St. Thomas
--
                                      --
                                      --
                                      --
                                      --

                                    WPST_09
                                     Point
                                      35
                                  St. Thomas
--
                                      --
                                      --
                                      --
                                      --

15

                                      15

                            St. Thomas Other Source

                           St. Thomas Other Sources
                                    STHOSP
                                     Point
                                      36
                                  St. Thomas
St. Thomas Hospital
                                    0.1100
                                   9.00E-02
                                   1.00E-02
                                   1.00E-04

                                    STOUFF
                                     Point
                                      39
                                  St. Thomas
Stouffers Hotel
                                     3.640
                                     3.380
                                    0.7400
                                   0.740E-02

                                    FRGENE
                                     Point
                                      40
                                  St. Thomas
Frenchman's Reef Generator
                                    0.3200
                                     4.790
                                    0.3400
                                   0.340E-02

                                    FRDIST
                                     Point
                                      41
                                  St. Thomas
Frenchman's Reef Distillation
                                     6.020
                                     4.950
                                    0.3600
                                   0.360E-02

                                    ISLRDS
                                     Point
                                      42
                                  St. Thomas
Islands Road Asphalt
                                    0.4600
                                   2.00E-02
                                    0.1300
                                   0.130E-02

                                   QUARRY_1
                                     Point
                                      43
                                  St. Thomas
Quarry - Crushing/Handling
                                      --
                                      --
                                   8.999E-02
                                   8.999E-04

                                   QUARRY_2
                                     Area
                                       8
                                  St. Thomas
Quarry  -  Blasting/Drilling
(24,277 sq. meters (2)
                                      --
                                      --
                                    0.1583
                                   0.1583-02

                                    CONCRT
                                     Point
                                      44
                                  St. Thomas
Concrete Block Plant
                                      --
                                      --
                                   2.664E-03
                                   2.664E-05

                                    WSB_001
                                     Point
                                      45
                                  St. Thomas
Wyndham Sugar Bay Generator #1 (1,370 kW)
                                   5.466E-02
                                     2.276
                                   4.219E-02
                                   4.219E-04

                                    WSB_002
                                     Point
                                      46
                                  St. Thomas
Wyndham Sugar Bay Generator #2 (1,370 kW)
                                   5.466E-02
                                     2.276
                                   4.219E-02
                                   4.219E-04

                                    WSB_003
                                     Point
                                      47
                                  St. Thomas
Wyndham Sugar Bay Generator #3 (2,000 kW)
                                   5.466E-02
                                     2.276
                                   4.219E-02
                                   4.219E-04

                                    RITZ_E1
                                     Point
                                      48
                                  St. Thomas
Ritz Carlton Engine #1
(1,275 kW)
                                    0.4833
                                     2.278
                                   1.438E-02
                                   1.438E-04

                                    RITZ_E2
                                     Point
                                      49
                                  St. Thomas
Ritz Carlton Engine #2
(1,275 kW)
                                    0.4833
                                     2.278
                                   1.438E-02
                                   1.438E-04

                                    RITZ_E3
                                     Point
                                      50
                                  St. Thomas
Ritz Carlton Engine #3
(1,275 kW)
                                    0.4833
                                     2.278
                                   1.438E-02
                                   1.438E-04

                                      17
                               St. John NonRoad
                                    SJNONR
                                     Area
                                       9
                                   St. john
Nonroad Emissions
(52,000,000 sq. meters) (2)
                                    0.5146
                                    0.0595
5.54E-02
                                   5.54E-04
                              Email of 5/16/2012
   g/s  -  grams/second
   (1) St. Croix VIWAPA and St. Thomas VIWAPA BART-eligible sources were modeled with Reported Emissions
   (2) Emission rate in the table is expressed in grams/second; area over which the emission rate is modeled is shown in the description; to obtain the emission rate input to the model (expressed in g/s/m[2]), divide the emission rate in the table by the area
   *	Elemental Carbon is assumed to be 1% of PM emissions

Table 3.  Hovensa BART-eligible Heater Inventory

1. RECEPTOR NETWORK
The National Park Service (NPS) has developed a database of modeling receptors for all Class I areas in the United States and the Virgin Islands. For the Virgin Island Class I area, 74 receptors are defined with an additional receptor on Hassel Island.  Since this receptor network does not allow for examination of single source contributions, an additional receptor located at the IMPROVE monitor site was modeled, allowing calculations of source contributions at the IMPROVE site.  The NPS receptor set was downloaded from the NPS website (http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/maps/receptors/index.cfm) and converted to the Lambert Conformal Conic (NAD83, km) for the modeling.  Figure 2 shows the receptor network.

         Figure 2.  Location of Class I Receptors for VI National Park

2. MODEL RESULTS
The modeling results at the IMPROVE receptor with all sources modeled for each year 2007 through 2010 are shown in Table 2.  The average annual visibility parameters for all days in the year, the 8[th] high values (98[th] percentile), and the average of the best 20% days and worst 20% days based on the percent change of the total beta extinction over the background beta extinction are presented.
For the model results with BART-eligible sources, the average of the best 20% days is omitted since not all days during the year resulted in visibility impacts (Tables 10 and later).  In these tables, the number of days with non-zero visibility impacts is noted in parenthesis after the year for the annual average and the worst 20% days.
The following table briefly describes the tables of results that follow.
                                    Tables
                                  Description
                                      4-6
All sources for 2007-2010 with emissions for BART-eligible sources modeled
                                      7-9
All sources for 2007-2010 with BART-eligible sources and emission  reductions: Hovensa Consent Decree and marine vessel reductions
                                     10-11
Hovensa BART-eligible sources, 2007-2010 (Group 1)
                                     12-13
Hovensa BART-eligible + nonBART sources, 2007-2010
                                     14-15
St. Thomas WAPA BART-eligible sources, 2007-2010 (Group 14b)
                                     16-17
St. Thomas WAPA BART-eligible + nonBART sources, 2007-2010 (Group 14d)
                                     18-19
St. Thomas WAPA BART-eligible + nonBART + other St. Thomas sources, 2007-2010 (Group 14e)
                                     20-21
St. Croix WAPA BART-eligible sources, 2007-2010 (Group 6b)
                                     22-23
St. Croix WAPA BART-eligible + nonBART sources, 2007-2010 (Group 6d)
                                     24-25
St. John point sources, 2007-2010 (Group 2)
                                     26-27
St. John marine vessel sources (ferry, cargo, cruise), 2007-2010 (Group 3)  -  no emissions reductions
                                     28-29
St. John marine vessel sources (ferry, cargo, cruise), 2007-2010 (Group 3alt)  -  with emissions reductions as described above
                                     30-31
Puerto Rico surrogate power plant, 2009 only (Group 4)
                                     32-33
British Virgin Islands oil combustion, 2009 only (Group 7)
                                     34-35
British Virgin Islands burning, 2009 only (Group 8)
                                     36-37
St. John fugitive road dust, 2007-2010 (Group 9)
                                     38-39
St. John burning, 2007-2010 (Group 10)
                                     40-41
St. John boilers, 2007-2010 (Group 11)
                                     42-43
St. John misc. industrial/construction, 2007-2010 (Group 12);
also includes results for an alternate size area source for 2009 only
                                     44-45
St. John onroad (motor vehicles), 2007-2010 (Group 13)
                                     46-47
St. John nonroad, 2007-2010 (Group 17)
Following Table 6 are plots of the modeled daily visibility impacts from all sources (without reductions) at the IMPROVE site (Figures 3, 5, 7, and 9) and Hassel Island site (Figures 4, 6, 8, and 10).  The letter `B' above a column corresponds to "Best 20%" day and the letter `W' corresponds to a "Worst 20%" day.
Note that the scale for the y-axis (beta extinction) varies from figure-to-figure.  Also note that for some days, the bar extends above the top of the y-axis.  On those days, the beta extinction is denoted in parentheses next to the bar.

Table 4.  IMPROVE Site Receptor - Model Results for All Sources, No Reductions
                                   IMPROVE
                                 BEXT (Source)
                                  BEXT (BKG)
                                 BEXT (Total)
                                Percent CHANGE
                                   BEXT SO4
                                   BEXT NO3
                                    BEXT OC
                                    BEXT EC
                                   BEXT PMC
                                   BEXT PMF
                                   BEXT NO2
                                      dv
                                    (total)
                                      dv
                                     (bkg)
                                     ∆dv

                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                       %
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]

                                     2007
                                Annual Average
                                     8.17
                                     15.66
                                     23.84
                                     52.16
                                     0.79
                                     0.14
                                      --
                                     0.66
                                      --
                                     6.58
                                      --
                                     8.43
                                     4.49
                                     3.94
                                     2007
                               98[th] percentile
                                     27.09
                                     15.63
                                     42.77
                                    173.70
                                     7.38
                                     0.22
                                      --
                                     1.77
                                      --
                                     17.72
                                      --
                                     14.53
                                     4.46
                                     10.07
                                     2007
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.68
                                     15.64
                                     18.33
                                     17.16
                                     0.08
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.24
                                      --
                                     2.36
                                      --
                                     6.05
                                     4.47
                                     1.58
                                     2007
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     17.56
                                     15.67
                                     33.25
                                    112.23
                                     3.11
                                     0.63
                                      --
                                     1.26
                                      --
                                     12.57
                                      --
                                     11.86
                                     4.49
                                     7.38
                                     2008
                                Annual Average
                                     5.50
                                     15.66
                                     21.16
                                     35.06
                                     0.28
                                     0.05
                                      --
                                     0.47
                                      --
                                     4.69
                                      --
                                     7.40
                                     4.49
                                     2.91
                                     2008
                               98[th] percentile
                                     15.29
                                     15.85
                                     31.15
                                     96.52
                                     1.55
                                     0.98
                                      --
                                     1.16
                                      --
                                     11.60
                                      --
                                     11.36
                                     4.61
                                     6.76
                                     2008
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.80
                                     15.62
                                     18.42
                                     17.95
                                     0.05
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.25
                                      --
                                     2.50
                                      --
                                     6.11
                                     4.46
                                     1.65
                                     2008
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     10.74
                                     15.71
                                     26.46
                                     68.39
                                     1.06
                                     0.21
                                      --
                                     0.86
                                      --
                                     8.61
                                      --
                                     9.65
                                     4.52
                                     5.14
                                     2009
                                Annual Average
                                     5.96
                                     15.66
                                     21.63
                                     38.04
                                     0.41
                                     0.07
                                      --
                                     0.50
                                      --
                                     4.98
                                      --
                                     7.56
                                     4.49
                                     3.07
                                     2009
                               98[th] percentile
                                     23.43
                                     15.85
                                     39.32
                                    148.07
                                     6.08
                                     0.58
                                      --
                                     1.53
                                      --
                                     15.25
                                      --
                                     13.69
                                     4.61
                                     9.09
                                     2009
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.89
                                     15.62
                                     18.51
                                     18.49
                                     0.04
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.26
                                      --
                                     2.59
                                      --
                                     6.15
                                     4.46
                                     1.70
                                     2009
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     12.55
                                     15.70
                                     28.25
                                     79.96
                                     1.78
                                     0.33
                                      --
                                     0.95
                                      --
                                     9.49
                                      --
                                     10.19
                                     4.51
                                     5.68
                                     2010
                                Annual Average
                                     4.71
                                     15.66
                                     20.37
                                     30.03
                                     0.51
                                     0.11
                                      --
                                     0.37
                                      --
                                     3.72
                                      --
                                     7.04
                                     4.49
                                     2.55
                                     2010
                               98[th] percentile
                                     14.95
                                     15.85
                                     30.84
                                     94.58
                                     3.92
                                     5.06
                                      --
                                     0.54
                                      --
                                     5.44
                                      --
                                     11.26
                                     4.61
                                     6.66
                                     2010
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.95
                                     15.58
                                     18.53
                                     18.95
                                     0.01
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.27
                                      --
                                     2.67
                                      --
                                     6.17
                                     4.43
                                     1.73
                                     2010
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     8.84
                                     15.70
                                     24.55
                                     56.39
                                     2.33
                                     0.51
                                      --
                                     0.55
                                      --
                                     5.46
                                      --
                                     8.85
                                     4.51
                                     4.35

Table 5.  Hassel Island NPS Receptor - Model Results for All Sources, No Reductions
                                Hassel Island
                                 BEXT (Source)
                                  BEXT (BKG)
                                 BEXT (Total)
                                Percent CHANGE
                                   BEXT SO4
                                   BEXT NO3
                                    BEXT OC
                                    BEXT EC
                                   BEXT PMC
                                   BEXT PMF
                                   BEXT NO2
                                      dv
                                    (total)
                                      dv
                                     (bkg)
                                     ∆dv

                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                       %
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]

                                     2007
                                Annual Average
                                     2.91
                                     15.66
                                     18.58
                                     18.59
                                     1.11
                                     0.16
                                      --
                                     0.15
                                      --
                                     1.49
                                      --
                                     6.10
                                     4.49
                                     1.62
                                     2007
                               98[th] percentile
                                     12.60
                                     15.81
                                     28.48
                                     80.10
                                     8.86
                                     0.61
                                      --
                                     0.29
                                      --
                                     2.85
                                      --
                                     10.46
                                     4.58
                                     5.88
                                     2007
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     0.75
                                     15.65
                                     16.40
                                     4.79
                                     0.20
                                     0.01
                                      --
                                     0.05
                                      --
                                     0.49
                                      --
                                     4.94
                                     4.48
                                     0.47
                                     2007
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     6.91
                                     15.67
                                     22.61
                                     44.23
                                     3.82
                                     0.64
                                      --
                                     0.22
                                      --
                                     2.23
                                      --
                                     8.03
                                     4.49
                                     3.54
                                     2008
                                Annual Average
                                     2.04
                                     15.66
                                     17.71
                                     13.06
                                     0.56
                                     0.09
                                      --
                                     0.13
                                      --
                                     1.26
                                      --
                                     5.69
                                     4.49
                                     1.20
                                     2008
                               98[th] percentile
                                     5.68
                                     15.76
                                     21.47
                                     36.27
                                     4.26
                                     0.12
                                      --
                                     0.12
                                      --
                                     1.19
                                      --
                                     7.64
                                     4.55
                                     3.09
                                     2008
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     0.70
                                     15.65
                                     16.35
                                     4.48
                                     0.21
                                     0.02
                                      --
                                     0.04
                                      --
                                     0.43
                                      --
                                     4.92
                                     4.48
                                     0.44
                                     2008
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     4.11
                                     15.72
                                     19.84
                                     26.18
                                     1.38
                                     0.32
                                      --
                                     0.22
                                      --
                                     2.19
                                      --
                                     6.82
                                     4.52
                                     2.29
                                     2009
                                Annual Average
                                     2.16
                                     15.66
                                     17.83
                                     13.81
                                     0.63
                                     0.07
                                      --
                                     0.13
                                      --
                                     1.32
                                      --
                                     5.73
                                     4.49
                                     1.25
                                     2009
                               98[th] percentile
                                     8.05
                                     15.47
                                     23.56
                                     52.36
                                     5.92
                                     1.24
                                      --
                                     0.08
                                      --
                                     0.81
                                      --
                                     8.57
                                     4.36
                                     4.21
                                     2009
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     0.44
                                     15.67
                                     16.10
                                     2.79
                                     0.08
                                     0.01
                                      --
                                     0.03
                                      --
                                     0.32
                                      --
                                     4.76
                                     4.49
                                     0.27
                                     2009
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     4.83
                                     15.70
                                     20.54
                                     30.85
                                     2.03
                                     0.27
                                      --
                                     0.23
                                      --
                                     2.30
                                      --
                                     7.13
                                     4.51
                                     2.62
                                     2010
                                Annual Average
                                     5.47
                                     15.66
                                     21.15
                                     35.02
                                     1.48
                                     0.27
                                      --
                                     0.34
                                      --
                                     3.38
                                      --
                                     7.37
                                     4.49
                                     2.89
                                     2010
                               98[th] percentile
                                     16.22
                                     15.63
                                     31.92
                                    104.23
                                     9.91
                                     0.60
                                      --
                                     0.52
                                      --
                                     5.19
                                      --
                                     11.61
                                     4.46
                                     7.14
                                     2010
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     1.83
                                     15.70
                                     17.53
                                     11.66
                                     0.54
                                     0.06
                                      --
                                     0.11
                                      --
                                     1.12
                                      --
                                     5.60
                                     4.51
                                     1.09
                                     2010
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     10.48
                                     15.68
                                     26.20
                                     67.00
                                     4.38
                                     0.97
                                      --
                                     0.47
                                      --
                                     4.67
                                      --
                                     9.50
                                     4.50
                                     5.00
Table 6.  NPS Receptors on St. John  -  Model Results for All Sources, No Reductions
                                 St. John NPS
                                 BEXT (Source)
                                  BEXT (BKG)
                                 BEXT (Total)
                                Percent CHANGE
                                   BEXT SO4
                                   BEXT NO3
                                    BEXT OC
                                    BEXT EC
                                   BEXT PMC
                                   BEXT PMF
                                   BEXT NO2
                                      dv
                                    (total)
                                      dv
                                     (bkg)
                                     ∆dv

                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                       %
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]

                                     2007
                                Annual Average
                                     19.67
                                     15.66
                                     35.34
                                    125.58
                                     0.86
                                     0.15
                                      --
                                     1.70
                                      --
                                     16.96
                                      --
                                     12.50
                                     4.49
                                     8.01
                                     2007
                               98[th] percentile
                                     34.86
                                     15.63
                                     50.55
                                    223.47
                                     8.05
                                     2.74
                                      --
                                     2.19
                                      --
                                     21.88
                                      --
                                     16.20
                                     4.46
                                     11.74
                                     2007
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     13.09
                                     15.64
                                     28.72
                                     83.68
                                     0.12
                                     0.01
                                      --
                                     1.18
                                      --
                                     11.78
                                      --
                                     10.51
                                     4.47
                                     6.05
                                     2007
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     28.15
                                     15.69
                                     43.86
                                    179.48
                                     3.05
                                     0.65
                                      --
                                     2.22
                                      --
                                     22.22
                                      --
                                     14.71
                                     4.50
                                     10.20
                                     2008
                                Annual Average
                                     20.44
                                     15.66
                                     36.10
                                    130.47
                                     0.34
                                     0.06
                                      --
                                     1.82
                                      --
                                     18.22
                                      --
                                     12.73
                                     4.49
                                     8.24
                                     2008
                               98[th] percentile
                                     33.62
                                     15.60
                                     49.22
                                    215.56
                                     0.07
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     3.05
                                      --
                                     30.50
                                      --
                                     15.94
                                     4.44
                                     11.49
                                     2008
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     14.48
                                     15.64
                                     30.11
                                     92.58
                                     0.19
                                     0.02
                                      --
                                     1.30
                                      --
                                     12.97
                                      --
                                     11.01
                                     4.47
                                     6.55
                                     2008
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     29.51
                                     15.67
                                     45.19
                                    188.37
                                     0.66
                                     0.17
                                      --
                                     2.61
                                      --
                                     26.07
                                      --
                                     15.05
                                     4.49
                                     10.56
                                     2009
                                Annual Average
                                     18.87
                                     15.66
                                     34.53
                                    120.44
                                     0.46
                                     0.08
                                      --
                                     1.67
                                      --
                                     16.66
                                      --
                                     12.31
                                     4.49
                                     7.82
                                     2009
                               98[th] percentile
                                     34.40
                                     15.72
                                     50.13
                                    218.80
                                     0.93
                                     0.06
                                      --
                                     3.04
                                      --
                                     30.37
                                      --
                                     16.12
                                     4.53
                                     11.59
                                     2009
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     13.86
                                     15.61
                                     29.48
                                     88.76
                                     0.10
                                     0.01
                                      --
                                     1.25
                                      --
                                     12.50
                                      --
                                     10.80
                                     4.46
                                     6.34
                                     2009
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     25.88
                                     15.71
                                     41.60
                                    164.76
                                     1.51
                                     0.28
                                      --
                                     2.19
                                      --
                                     21.89
                                      --
                                     14.18
                                     4.52
                                     9.67
                                     2010
                                Annual Average
                                     21.92
                                     15.66
                                     37.59
                                    139.86
                                     0.51
                                     0.13
                                      --
                                     1.93
                                      --
                                     19.35
                                      --
                                     13.08
                                     4.49
                                     8.60
                                     2010
                               98[th] percentile
                                     40.51
                                     15.76
                                     56.27
                                    257.14
                                     0.08
                                     0.02
                                      --
                                     3.67
                                      --
                                     36.74
                                      --
                                     17.28
                                     4.55
                                     12.73
                                     2010
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     14.50
                                     15.60
                                     30.10
                                     92.99
                                     0.12
                                     0.01
                                      --
                                     1.31
                                      --
                                     13.07
                                      --
                                     11.01
                                     4.45
                                     6.56
                                     2010
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     32.92
                                     15.73
                                     48.67
                                    209.31
                                     1.46
                                     0.54
                                      --
                                     2.81
                                      --
                                     28.11
                                      --
                                     15.77
                                     4.53
                                     11.24

Figure 3.  Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  IMPROVE Site Receptor, 2007

Figure 4. Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  Hassel Island NPS Receptor, 2007

Figure 5. Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  IMPROVE Site Receptor, 2008

Figure 6. Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  Hassel Island NPS Receptor, 2008

Figure 7. Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  IMPROVE Site Receptor, 2009

Figure 8. Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  Hassel Island NPS Receptor, 2009

Figure 9. Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  IMPROVE Site Receptor, 2010

Figure 10. Modeled Beta Extinction  -  All Sources, No Reductions  -  Hassel Island NPS Receptor, 2010

Table 7.  IMPROVE Site Receptor - Model Results for All Sources, with Reductions
                                   IMPROVE
                                 BEXT (Source)
                                  BEXT (BKG)
                                 BEXT (Total)
                                Percent CHANGE
                                   BEXT SO4
                                   BEXT NO3
                                    BEXT OC
                                    BEXT EC
                                   BEXT PMC
                                   BEXT PMF
                                   BEXT NO2
                                      dv
                                    (total)
                                      dv
                                     (bkg)
                                     ∆dv

                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                       %
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]

                                     2007
                                Annual Average
                                     7.99
                                     15.66
                                     23.65
                                     51.00
                                     0.65
                                     0.12
                                      --
                                     0.66
                                      --
                                     6.56
                                      --
                                     8.37
                                     4.49
                                     3.89
                                     2007
                               98[th] percentile
                                     25.41
                                     15.63
                                     41.08
                                    162.89
                                     6.86
                                     0.23
                                      --
                                     1.67
                                      --
                                     16.66
                                      --
                                     14.13
                                     4.46
                                     9.67
                                     2007
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.68
                                     15.64
                                     18.33
                                     17.16
                                     0.08
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.24
                                      --
                                     2.36
                                      --
                                     6.05
                                     4.47
                                     1.58
                                     2007
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     16.79
                                     15.67
                                     32.47
                                    107.25
                                     2.48
                                     0.53
                                      --
                                     1.25
                                      --
                                     12.53
                                      --
                                     11.65
                                     4.49
                                     7.16
                                     2008
                                Annual Average
                                     5.44
                                     15.66
                                     21.10
                                     34.71
                                     0.24
                                     0.05
                                      --
                                     0.47
                                      --
                                     4.68
                                      --
                                     7.38
                                     4.49
                                     2.89
                                     2008
                               98[th] percentile
                                     14.92
                                     15.85
                                     30.79
                                     94.21
                                     1.30
                                     0.87
                                      --
                                     1.16
                                      --
                                     11.60
                                      --
                                     11.24
                                     4.61
                                     6.64
                                     2008
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.80
                                     15.62
                                     18.42
                                     17.95
                                     0.05
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.25
                                      --
                                     2.50
                                      --
                                     6.11
                                     4.46
                                     1.65
                                     2008
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     10.46
                                     15.71
                                     26.18
                                     66.63
                                     0.87
                                     0.18
                                      --
                                     0.86
                                      --
                                     8.55
                                      --
                                     9.56
                                     4.52
                                     5.04
                                     2009
                                Annual Average
                                     5.87
                                     15.66
                                     21.54
                                     37.46
                                     0.34
                                     0.06
                                      --
                                     0.50
                                      --
                                     4.97
                                      --
                                     7.53
                                     4.49
                                     3.04
                                     2009
                               98[th] percentile
                                     21.76
                                     15.72
                                     37.52
                                    138.63
                                     5.32
                                     1.38
                                      --
                                     1.37
                                      --
                                     13.69
                                      --
                                     13.22
                                     4.53
                                     8.70
                                     2009
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.89
                                     15.62
                                     18.51
                                     18.49
                                     0.04
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.26
                                      --
                                     2.59
                                      --
                                     6.15
                                     4.46
                                     1.70
                                     2009
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     12.11
                                     15.70
                                     27.81
                                     77.14
                                     1.42
                                     0.28
                                      --
                                     0.95
                                      --
                                     9.47
                                      --
                                     10.06
                                     4.51
                                     5.56
                                     2010
                                Annual Average
                                     4.59
                                     15.66
                                     20.26
                                     29.30
                                     0.41
                                     0.09
                                      --
                                     0.37
                                      --
                                     3.71
                                      --
                                     6.99
                                     4.49
                                     2.51
                                     2010
                               98[th] percentile
                                     13.37
                                     15.85
                                     29.26
                                     84.58
                                     3.10
                                     4.30
                                      --
                                     0.54
                                      --
                                     5.43
                                      --
                                     10.74
                                     4.61
                                     6.13
                                     2010
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     2.95
                                     15.58
                                     18.53
                                     18.94
                                     0.01
                                     0.00
                                      --
                                     0.27
                                      --
                                     2.67
                                      --
                                     6.17
                                     4.43
                                     1.73
                                     2010
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     8.30
                                     15.70
                                     24.01
                                     52.93
                                     1.87
                                     0.44
                                      --
                                     0.55
                                      --
                                     5.45
                                      --
                                     8.65
                                     4.51
                                     4.14

Table 8.  Hassel Island NPS Receptor - Model Results for All Sources, with Reductions
                                 Hassel Island
                                 BEXT (Source)
                                  BEXT (BKG)
                                 BEXT (Total)
                                Percent CHANGE
                                   BEXT SO4
                                   BEXT NO3
                                    BEXT OC
                                    BEXT EC
                                   BEXT PMC
                                   BEXT PMF
                                   BEXT NO2
                                      dv
                                    (total)
                                      dv
                                     (bkg)
                                     ∆dv

                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                       %
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]
                                    Mm[-1]

                                     2007
                                Annual Average
                                     2.62
                                     15.66
                                     18.29
                                     16.74
                                     0.88
                                     0.13
                                      --
                                     0.15
                                      --
                                     1.46
                                      --
                                     5.97
                                     4.49
                                     1.48
                                     2007
                               98[th] percentile
                                     10.20
                                     15.81
                                     26.05
                                     64.78
                                     6.17
                                     0.95
                                      --
                                     0.28
                                      --
                                     2.80
                                      --
                                     9.58
                                     4.58
                                     4.99
                                     2007
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     0.73
                                     15.64
                                     16.37
                                     4.65
                                     0.18
                                     0.01
                                      --
                                     0.05
                                      --
                                     0.48
                                      --
                                     4.93
                                     4.47
                                     0.45
                                     2007
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     5.93
                                     15.67
                                     21.62
                                     37.92
                                     2.97
                                     0.53
                                      --
                                     0.22
                                      --
                                     2.21
                                      --
                                     7.62
                                     4.49
                                     3.13
                                     2008
                                Annual Average
                                     1.91
                                     15.66
                                     17.57
                                     12.19
                                     0.46
                                     0.08
                                      --
                                     0.12
                                      --
                                     1.24
                                      --
                                     5.62
                                     4.49
                                     1.13
                                     2008
                               98[th] percentile
                                     4.80
                                     15.81
                                     20.62
                                     30.39
                                     0.70
                                     0.59
                                      --
                                     0.32
                                      --
                                     3.19
                                      --
                                     7.23
                                     4.58
                                     2.65
                                     2008
                                 Best 20% Days
                                     0.68
                                     15.65
                                     16.33
                                     4.34
                                     0.20
                                     0.02
                                      --
                                     0.04
                                      --
                                     0.42
                                      --
                                     4.90
                                     4.48
                                     0.42
                                     2008
                                Worst 20% Days
                                     3.72
                                     15.71
                                     19.44