Mostly rough fish
2
Green
About 1 foot
Mostly rough fish
3
Brown/Green
About 3 feet
Bass and rough fish
4
Blue/Brown
About 5 feet
Mostly bass
5
Blue/Brown
About 8 feet
Mostly Bass and some walleye
6
Blue
About 15 feet
Bass, walleye, and trout
7
Blue
More than 20 feet
Bass, walleye, and trout

8. What condition do you think best describes the lakes closest to your home? (please circle one)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Don't Know

Lakes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Some important things to note:

   * Meeting the goals for water quality in the Chesapeake Bay would also affect freshwater bodies of the watershed.
   * Nutrients have a small effect on many rivers because the water is constantly moving.
   * Reducing the amount of nutrients entering lakes will improve the appearance of the water and change the ecological conditions.

The table below shows the current condition and conditions in 2025 that scientists predict for lakes in the part of the watershed in your state if no further actions are taken to reduce nutrient and sediment pollution.

The table shows the average condition for <state> lakes within the Watershed.  This is an average, so individual lakes near you could be higher or lower.

Current Conditions
Conditions in 2025 with no additional actions*
Average Condition of <State> Lakes in the Watershed
3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish
2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish
All forecasts for the year 2025 are based on measures from the Northeast Lakes Model developed by the Office of Research and Development of the EPA.

Pollution Reduction Programs for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Federal and State Agencies are developing programs to meet the goals that have been set for water quality and wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay.  Any program would be phased in over time but would be fully implemented by the year 2025.

Progress toward each water quality goal will depend on the design of the program.
For example,
   # Pollution reduction practices close to the Bay will improve water quality in the Bay, but not in freshwater lakes farther out in the watershed.

   # Planting aquatic grasses will improve aquatic life habitat but will have a smaller effect on water clarity and dissolved oxygen than programs focused on reducing nutrients and sediment.

9. Before taking this survey, had you read or heard of programs to reduce excess nutrients and sediments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed?
         □	  Yes
         □	  No

                   Paying for Pollution Reduction Programs

The changes required under pollution reduction programs would result in higher costs for your household.

Costs to Your Household
Some of the basic things people spend money on would become more expensive. For example:

   * Higher water bills or increased maintenance costs for septic systems for households in the Watershed. For renters, rent or utility bills would increase.

   * Higher prices for some agricultural products and other goods for households both outside and inside the Watershed, including the area where you live.  This is because of higher costs for businesses inside the Watershed.

A pollution reduction program, if implemented, would permanently increase the cost of living for your household.

Deciding Future Actions

Imagine that you were given the opportunity to vote on future pollution reduction programs.

In the questions that follow, we will ask your opinion about different programs that provide different levels of environmental improvements, and cost your household different amounts.

You will be asked three questions.  In each question you will need to choose the program you like best from the following alternatives:

   * The NO FURTHER ACTION option would have no additional pollution reductions or costs to your household.

   * The two programs labeled PROGRAM A and PROGRAM B differ in how much they reduce pollution and how much they cost your household.

An Example Question is on the next page to show you what the questions will look like.

An Example Question

Conditions in 2025
z
Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.2
Program B
 Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Waters
Dissolved Oxygen
40% of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

33 %
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

50%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

70%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
4 feet

33% increase

Average visibility of
3 feet

67% increase

Aquatic Grasses
Coverage is
80,000 acres

56,000 acres

30% Decrease

100,000 acres

25% increase

150,000 acres

 50% increase
Lakes
Lake Condition

Average of 3 in
your state

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

4
Blue/Brown Water
5 feet of visibility
Mostly Bass

3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$36 per year
or $3 per month

$50 per year
or $4.16 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B
If you want Program A, mark this box
If you do not want A or B, mark this box
If you want Program B, mark this box

Please think carefully about how you would actually vote in these situations.  We urge you to respond as though costs for your household really would go up if the program were implemented.  Knowing how different people would vote on this program is very important for decision makers in state and federal governments.

Consider the Outcomes and the Costs

Please take time to consider both the benefits of the program and the costs to your household. Ask yourself if the program outcomes for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed are worth the additional cost to your household.

Paying the costs means you would have less money to spend on other things such as food, clothes, going on trips, and even towards resolving other environmental problems you care about.

 You would be making a commitment to pay the additional amount every year from now on.

Only you know what is best for you and your household, so please only think of your household when deciding whether to vote for NO FURTHER ACTION, PROGRAM A, or PROGRAM B.

10. Suppose you could choose from the following three options. Mark the box at the bottom to indicate which plan you would vote for.

Conditions in 2025
z
Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.2
Program B
 Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Waters
Dissolved Oxygen
40% of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

33 %
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

85%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

100%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
5 feet

83% increase

Average visibility of
4 feet

50% increase

Aquatic Grasses
Current coverage is 80,000 acres

56,000 acres

30% Decrease

130,000 acres

25% increase

165,000 acres

50% increase
Lakes
Lake Condition

Average of 3 in
<state>

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

5
Blue/Brown Water
8 feet of visibility
Bass and walleye

4
Blue/Brown Water
5 feet of visibility
Mostly bass

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$250 per year
or $20.83 per month

$180 per year
or $15 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B

As you vote on the next questions please remember...

   * On the following pages you will see questions that present new sets of program options. These options require a different mix of management practices in different areas.

   * Consider each question separately, imagining that the options are the only ones available to choose from.

   * The next two questions cannot be compared to each other, or to the question you just answered.

   * Do not add up effects or costs across different questions.

11. Now suppose instead that a different set of options were available.  Please mark the box at the bottom to indicate which plan you would vote for.

Conditions in 2025
z
Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.2
Program B
 Chesapeake Bay Tidal Waters
Dissolved Oxygen
40% of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

33 %
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

85%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

40%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
4 feet

33% increase

Average visibility of
5 feet

No Change

Aquatic Grasses
Coverage is
80,000 acres

56,000 acres

30% Decrease

130,000 acres

25% increase

80,000 acres

50% increase
Lakes
Lake Condition

Average of 3 in
your state

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish

4
Blue/Brown Water
5 feet of visibility
Mostly bass

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$40 per year
or $3.33 per month

$60 per year
or $5 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B

12. Now suppose instead that a different set of options were available.  Please mark the box at the bottom to indicate which plan you would vote for.

Conditions in 2025
z
Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.2
Program B
 Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Waters
Dissolved Oxygen
40% of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

33 %
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

100%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

85%
of the Bay areas
will meet DO goals

Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
5 feet

83% increase

Average visibility of
4 feet

33% increase

Aquatic Grasses
Current coverage is 80,000 acres

56,000 acres

30% Decrease

130,000 acres

20% increase

165,000 acres

75% increase
Lakes
Lake Condition

Average of 3 in
your state

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

5
Blue/Brown Water
8 feet of visibility
Bass and walleye

4
Blue/Brown Water
5 feet of visibility
Mostly bass

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$370 per year
or $30.83 per month

$180 per year
or $15 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B

13. For the choices you just made about programs, how much consideration did you give to improvements in lakes compared to the Chesapeake Bay tidal waters? (Please circle one.)

Considered Only the Lakes

Considered Lakes and Bay Waters Equally

Considered Only the Bay Waters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

14. Using each of the numbers 1 through 5, rank the following in order of importance when you were choosing between programs.  (1 = Most Important, 5 = Least Important)

______ Dissolved oxygen
______ Water clarity
______ Aquatic grass coverage
______ Lake category
______ Cost of the program

15. Aside from costs, which of the following was most important in making your decision about which program to vote for? (Please choose one.)

      oo Recreation on the Bay
      oo Recreation in Lakes
      oo Preserving the environment for future generations
      oo Availability and/or price of seafood
      oo Value of property near the Bay
      oo Value of property near Lakes
      oo The possibility of visiting the Bay in the future
      oo The possibility of visiting Lakes in the future
      oo Other __________________

16. Thinking about how you voted among programs, please rate how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.  (Circle the number that matches your answer.)

Strongly Disagree

Neutral

Strongly Agree
  My choices would have been different if the economy in my area were better.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  It is important to improve waters in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, no matter how high the costs.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I do not think I should have to contribute any amount to the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay watershed.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I am concerned that the programs would hurt the economy.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  It was difficult to understand the descriptions of the programs.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I believe the programs will improve the environment as described.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  Some of the programs cost too much compared to what they would deliver.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  The changes offered by the programs happen too far into the future for me to really care about.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  The survey provided me with the information I needed to make a choice between the options shown.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

17. If you voted for NO FURTHER ACTION in any of the choices you were given, please let us know how much you agree or disagree with the each of the following statements.  If not, skip to the next question. (Circle the number that matches your answer.)

Strongly Disagree

Neutral

                                                                 Strongly Agree
  Nothing can be done to improve the quality of the Bay and freshwater lakes.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I would not vote for any program even if there were no costs to my household.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for NO FURTHER ACTION because the costs were too high compared to the environmental improvements.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for NO FURTHER ACTION because I am against more government requirements and spending.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

18. If you voted for Program A or Program B in any of the choices you were given, please let us know how much you agree or disagree with the each of the following statements.  If not, skip this question. (Circle the number that matches your answer.)

Strongly Disagree

Neutral

                                                                 Strongly Agree
  I voted for a program because I thought it would also lead to better water quality closer to my home.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for a program more for future generations than for myself.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for the program because I may visit the Chesapeake Bay or lakes in the watershed in the next few years.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for a program because I believe it is our responsibility to preserve wildlife and habitat in the Bay and Lakes.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for a program so others could enjoy the Bay and lakes, rather than for myself.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Questions about you and your household

Finally, we would like to ask you a few questions about you and your household for statistical purposes.  The reports prepared for this study will summarize findings across all responses and will not associate responses with an individual.  Your answers will not be saved or stored in a way that can be associated with your name or address.  You will not be contacted about your responses or this survey.
19. Are you male or female?
Male
Female

9. What is your age?
_________ years old

10. What is your current marital status?
      Single, never married
      Married or living with a long-term partner
      Separated or divorced
      Widowed

9. How many children under age 18 are living at your home?
____________ children

10. What was your total pre-tax household income, including all earners in your household, in 2011?
      Under $25,000
      $25,000 - $34,999
      $35,000 - $49,999
      $50,000 - $74,999
      $75,000 - $99,999
      $100,000-$199,999
      $200,000 or more

9. What is the highest degree or level of school you have completed?
      No high school diploma
      High school diploma or GED
      Some college credit or college degree
      Some graduate school or professional school credit or a graduate or professional degree

9. Which of the following best describes the home or apartment you live in?
      Owned by you or someone in your household with a mortgage or loan
      Owned by you or someone in your household without a mortgage or loan
      Rented
      Other: ____________________________________________________

9. Have you or any member of your family ever worked for any of the following industries or jobs? (Please fill in the box next to all that apply.)
      Agriculture
      Commercial fishing
      Tour guide for fishing
      No one in my family has worked in these industries

   Thank you very much for your help.

The public reporting and recordkeeping burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 2 hours per response.  Send comments on the Agency's need for this information, the accuracy of the provided burden estimates, and any suggested methods for minimizing respondent burden, including through the use of automated collection techniques to the Director, Collection Strategies Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2822T), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20460.  Include the OMB control number in any correspondence.  Do not send the materials to this address.

Attachment 4: Full Text of DRAFT Endpoint-Based Declining Baseline Stated Preference Survey Component

Cover
Chesapeake Bay Stated Preference Survey
Endpoint Version
Declining Baseline
May 22, 2012

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
About this survey
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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In this survey we will describe the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and ask some questions about your experiences.  We will then describe possible plans for changing (or not changing) how the Chesapeake Bay Watershed is managed.  We will describe how these plans could affect the Watershed and your household and ask whether you would vote for different plans.  Finally we will ask some questions about your opinions on different topics covered in the survey and some information about your household.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Your answers will help inform policymakers.  All information and responses will be kept confidential.  Background information in this survey was provided by the National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and other state and federal offices.

The Chesapeake Bay Watershed

The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, shown in green, is home to 17 million people and covers parts of six states and Washington DC.

The Watershed includes over 100,000 small rivers and streams, 150 major rivers, and thousands of lakes.  Water that falls on the land within the watershed drains into these rivers, and eventually enters the Chesapeake Bay.
The Chesapeake Bay Watershed includes two types of water bodies:
The freshwater lakes and rivers of the Watershed support wildlife and provide recreational opportunities like swimming, boating, and fishing.
The Chesapeake Bay tidal waters include the Bay itself and parts of some rivers and streams that flow into the Bay.  Bay waters are salty and support different types of wildlife than the rest of the Watershed.  People also swim, boat, and fish in the tidal sections of the watershed.

1. Over the last five years have you done any of the following activities in lakes and rivers in the watershed, or in the Chesapeake Bay tidal waters?

Lakes and rivers in the Watershed
Chesapeake Bay tidal waters
Swimming, water skiing, or jet skiing
□
□
Fishing
□
□
Boating, including sailing, motor boating and kayaking
□
□
Viewing nature, including bird watching
□
□
Biking or walking on trails along the water

□
□
Other _______________________
□
□

2. About how many times have you visited lakes and rivers in the watershed, or the Chesapeake Bay Tidal waters to do any these activities?  Please check one statement in each column that best describes your experience.

Lakes and rivers in the Watershed
Chesapeake Bay tidal waters
I have never visited
□
□
I have not visited in the last 5 years
□
□
Once over the last 5 years
□
□
A few times over the last 5 years
□
□
About once a year
□
□
2 to 10 times a year
□
□
More than 10 times a year
□
□

Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Pollutants in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed degrade the quality of the water in lakes, rivers and the Chesapeake Bay, and can affect wildlife habitat and recreational opportunities.  Two key pollutants are nutrients and sediments.

   *    Nutrients.  Nitrogen and phosphorous are naturally occurring substances that are essential for healthy ecosystems.  But too much can lead to algae that deprive fish and plants of oxygen. Excess nutrients come from fertilizers, livestock manure, and outflows from wastewater treatment plants.

   *    Sediment.   Loose soil that settles to the bottom of water bodies is also a natural part of the environment.  Too much sediment makes the water murky and harms aquatic plants and animals.  Paved surfaces and some farming practices have led to more soil erosion, causing more sediment to enter rivers and streams and flow into the Chesapeake Bay.

For the following questions, check the box next to your answer.

3. Before taking this survey, were you aware of the negative effects that too much sediment or nutrients can have on wildlife habitat or recreation opportunities?
       □	Yes
□	No

4. Have you previously heard of the sources of excess nutrients and sediments in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed?
       □	Yes
       □	No

Reducing nutrient and sediment pollution in the
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Changing the way land, storm water, and waste water are managed can improve water quality in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.  As a result, wildlife habitat and recreation opportunities will improve in lakes, rivers and the Bay.

Practices to Improve Water Quality
   * Changing the way farmers dispose of livestock manure and till their land
   * Installing better equipment at wastewater treatment facilities
   * Restoring streams and wetlands and paving fewer surfaces to slow storm water runoff
   * Restoring oyster reefs and bay grass beds to filter water and improve fish habitat

Water Quality Improvements
   * Clearer water because less nutrients and sediment enter the water
   * More aquatic grasses will grow because clearer water allows more sunlight to reach them
   * Smaller, less frequent algae blooms
   * More oxygen in the water because of reduced algae

Ecosystem and Recreation Improvements
   * Cleaner and healthier aquatic environment
   * More game fish and crabs for recreational fishermen
   * More enjoyable  boating and swimming
   * More oysters and bay grass beds will provide habitat for a variety of fish and shellfish while also improving water quality

5. How do you think environmental conditions have changed in lakes and rivers closest to your home and in  -  -  - the Chesapeake Bay? (Please check one box in each column)

Lakes and Rivers
Chesapeake Bay
Better than they were 10 years ago
□
□
About the same as they were 10 years ago
□
□
Worse than they were 10 years ago
□
□
Don't know
□
□

6. On a scale from 1 to 5, please indicate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements by circling a number.

Strongly
Disagree

Neutral

Strongly Agree
Don't Know
 I am concerned about current pollution levels in lakes and rivers.
1
2
3
4
5
DK
 I am concerned about current pollution levels in the Chesapeake Bay.
1
2
3
4
5
DK
 Some decrease in environmental quality is inevitable as our economy grows.
1
2
3
4
5
DK

Environmental Quality in the Chesapeake Bay

Different areas of the Chesapeake Bay provide different types of wildlife habitat and recreation opportunities.  State governments and federal agencies have been working with scientists to develop environmental goals for improving the quality of the Chesapeake Bay.

For the Chesapeake Bay, environmental goals are based measurements of water quality and aquatic life:

Water Clarity
   * Measured by how far one can see into the water
   * People who go swimming or boating may prefer clearer water
   * Clearer water means more sunlight for underwater plants to grow

Blue Crab
   * A key ecological species and popular shellfish for recreational fishermen

Oysters
   * Their shells form reefs that provide habitat for other aquatic life
   * As "filter feeders" they clean the waters of the Bay

7. Before taking this survey, had you read or heard about any environmental goals for water clarity in the Chesapeake Bay or for any Chesapeake Bay species?
      □	Yes
      □	No

Environmental Quality in the Chesapeake Bay
State and local governments already have some pollution reduction programs in place but additional actions are being considered.  Scientists studying the Chesapeake Bay Watershed monitor its health and use models to predict water conditions in the future under different pollution reduction programs.

The table here shows both current conditions and predicted conditions in 2025 for the Chesapeake Bay tidal waters if no further action is taken to reduce nutrients and sediment.

Current Conditions
Conditions in 2025 with no further action*

 Water Clarity
 How many feet you can see down into the water.

Average of visibility of
3 feet

Average of visibility of
3 feet
No Change
Blue Crabs

Goal is 415 million crabs
 250
 million crabs

 250
 million crabs
 No Change
Oysters

Goal is 35,000 tons
 3,300
 tons
 3,300
 tons
 No Change
All forecasts for the year 2025 are based on monitoring data from the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Estuary Models developed by the Chesapeake Bay Program Office of the EPA in conjunction with state and federal partners.
Environmental Quality in Lakes

Scientists studying the effect of nutrient pollution on lakes categorize them by how much algae grows in the water.

High amounts of algae:
   * Changes the color of the water and reduces visibility.
   * Results in fewer game fish like bass and trout and more rough fish like carp and catfish.

Lake Condition
Water Color
Water Clarity
Most Common
Types of fish
1
Green
Less than 1 foot
Mostly rough fish
2
Green
About 1 foot
Mostly rough fish
3
Brown/Green
About 3 feet
Bass and rough fish
4
Blue/Brown
About 5 feet
Mostly bass
5
Blue/Brown
About 8 feet
Mostly Bass and some walleye
6
Blue
About 15 feet
Bass, walleye, and trout
7
Blue
More than 20 feet
Bass, walleye, and trout

8. What condition do you think best describes the lakes closest to your home? (please circle one)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Don't Know

Lakes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Some important things to note:

   * Meeting the goals for water quality in the Chesapeake Bay would also affect freshwater bodies of the watershed.
   * Nutrients have a small effect on many rivers because the water is constantly moving.
   * Reducing the amount of nutrients entering lakes will improve the appearance of the water and change the ecological conditions.

The table below shows the current condition and conditions in 2025 that scientists predict for lakes in the part of the watershed in your state if no further actions are taken to reduce nutrient and sediment pollution.

The table shows the average condition for <state> lakes within the Watershed.  This is an average, so individual lakes near you could be higher or lower.

Current Conditions
Conditions in 2025 with no additional actions*
Average Condition of <State> Lakes in the Watershed
3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish
3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish
All forecasts for the year 2025 are based on measures from the Northeast Lakes Model developed by the Office of Research and Development of the EPA.

Pollution Reduction Programs for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Federal and State Agencies are developing programs to meet the goals that have been set for water quality and wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay.  Any program would be phased in over time but would be fully implemented by the year 2025.

Progress toward each water quality goal will depend on the design of the program.
For example,
   # Pollution reduction practices close to the Bay will improve water quality in the Bay, but not in freshwater lakes farther out in the watershed.

   # Planting aquatic grasses will improve aquatic life habitat but will have a smaller effect on water clarity than programs focused on reducing nutrients and sediment.

9. Before taking this survey, had you read or heard of programs to reduce excess nutrients and sediments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed?
         □	  Yes
         □	  No

                   Paying for Pollution Reduction Programs

The changes required under pollution reduction programs would result in higher costs for your household.

Costs to Your Household
Some of the basic things people spend money on would become more expensive. For example:

   * Higher water bills or increased maintenance costs for septic systems for households in the Watershed. For renters, rent or utility bills would increase.

   * Higher prices for some agricultural products and other goods for households both outside and inside the Watershed, including the area where you live.  This is because of higher costs for businesses inside the Watershed.

A pollution reduction program, if implemented, would permanently increase the cost of living for your household.

Deciding Future Actions

Imagine that you were given the opportunity to vote on future pollution reduction programs.

In the questions that follow, we will ask your opinion about different programs that provide different levels of environmental improvements, and cost your household different amounts.

You will be asked three questions.  In each question you will need to choose the program you like best from the following alternatives:

   * The NO FURTHER ACTION option would have no additional pollution reductions or costs to your household.

   * The two programs labeled PROGRAM A and PROGRAM B differ in how much they reduce pollution and how much they cost your household.

An Example Question is on the next page to show you what the questions will look like.

An Example Question

Conditions in 2025

Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.05
Program B
 Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Waters
Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
4 feet

33% increase

Average visibility of
3 feet

67% increase

Blue Crab
250 million crabs

 235
 million crabs
 6% decrease

 300
 million crabs
 20% increase

 275
 million crabs
10 % increase

Oysters
3,300 tons

 2,700
 tons
 18% decrease

 3,960
 tons
 20 % increase

 4,950
 tons
 50% increase
 Lakes
Lake Condition
Average of 3 in
your state

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish

4
Blue/Brown Water
5 feet of visibility
Mostly bass

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$150 per year
or $12.50 per month

$200 per year
or $16.67 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B
If you want Program B, mark this box
If you want Program A, mark this box
If you do not want A or B, mark this box

Please think carefully about how you would actually vote in these situations.  We urge you to respond as though costs for your household really would go up if the program were implemented.  Knowing how different people would vote on this program is very important for decision makers in state and federal governments.

Consider the Outcomes and the Costs

Please take time to consider both the benefits of the program and the costs to your household. Ask yourself if the program outcomes for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed are worth the additional cost to your household.

Paying the costs means you would have less money to spend on other things such as food, clothes, going on trips, and even towards resolving other environmental problems you care about.

 You would be making a commitment to pay the additional amount every year from now on.

Only you know what is best for you and your household, so please only think of your household when deciding whether to vote for NO FURTHER ACTION, PROGRAM A, or PROGRAM B.

10. Suppose you could choose from the following three options.   Mark the box at the bottom to indicate which plan you would vote for.

Conditions in 2025

Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.05
Program B
 Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Waters
Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
5 feet

83% increase

Average visibility of
4 feet

50% increase

Blue Crab
250 million crabs

 235
 million crabs
 6% Decrease

 280
 million crabs
 12% increase

 312
 million crabs
25 % increase

Oysters
3,300 tons

 2,700
 tons
 18% Decrease

 5,250
 tons
 50% increase

 4,300
 tons
 23% increase
 Lakes
Lake Condition
Average of 3 in
your state

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish

4
Blue/Brown Water
5 feet of visibility
Mostly bass

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$180 per year
or $15 per month

$250 per year
or $20.83 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B

As you vote on the next questions please remember...

   * On the following pages you will see questions that present new sets of program options. These options require a different mix of management practices in different areas.

   * Consider each question separately, imagining that the options are the only ones available to choose from.

   * The next two questions cannot be compared to each other, or to the question you just answered.

   * Do not add up effects or costs across different questions.

11. Now suppose a different set of options were available.  Please mark the box at the bottom to indicate which plan you would vote for.

Conditions in 2025

Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.05
Program B
 Bay Tidal Waters
Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
4 feet

33% increase

Average visibility of
5 feet

No Change

Blue Crab
250 million crabs

 235
 million crabs
 6% Decrease

 250
 million crabs
 No Change

 280
 million crabs
12% increase

Oysters
3,300 tons

 2,700
 tons
 18% Decrease

 4,300
 tons
 30% increase

 5,250
 tons
 59% increase
 Lakes
Lake Conditions
Average of 3 in
your state

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

4
Blue/Brown Water
5 feet of visibility
Mostly Bass

5
Blue/Brown Water
8 feet of visibility
Bass and walleye

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$60 per year
or $5 per month

$40 per year
or $20.83 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B

12. Now suppose a different set of options were available, instead of those in the previous question.  Please mark the box at the bottom to indicate which plan you would vote for.

Conditions in 2025

Current
Conditions

No Further Action
.2
Program A
.05
Program B
 Bay Tidal Waters
Water Clarity
Average visibility of
3 feet

Average visibility of
1.5 feet

50% Decrease

Average visibility of
5 feet

83% increase

Average visibility of
4 feet

33% increase

Blue Crab
250 million crabs

 235
 million crabs
 6% Decrease

 280
 million crabs
 12% increase

 312
 million crabs
25% increase

Oysters
3,300 tons

 2,700
 tons
 18% Decrease

 5,250
 tons
 50% increase

 3,300
 tons
 no change
 Lakes
Lake Condition
Average of 3 in
your state

2
Green Water
1 foot of visibility
Mostly rough fish

5
Blue/Brown Water
8 feet of visibility
Bass and walleye

3
Brown/Green Water
3 feet of visibility
Bass and rough fish

Permanent Increase in the Cost of Living for your Household

$0 per year

$60 per year
or $3.33 per month

$180 per year
or $15 per month

Your Vote
Please mark one of the boxes to the right

No Further Action

Program A

Program B

13. For the choices you just made about programs, how much consideration did you give to improvements in lakes compared to the Chesapeake Bay tidal waters? (Please circle one.)

Considered Only the Lakes

Considered Lakes and Bay Waters Equally

Considered Only the Bay Waters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

14. Using each of the numbers 1 through 4, rank the following in order of importance when you were choosing between programs.  (1 = Most Important, 5 = Least Important)

______ Clarity
______ Striped Bass
______ Blue Crab
______ Lake Category
______ Cost of the program

15. Aside from costs, which of the following was most important in making your decision about which program to vote for? (Please choose one.)

      oo Recreation on the Bay
      oo Recreation in Lakes
      oo Preserving the environment for future generations
      oo Availability and/or price of seafood
      oo Value of property near the Bay
      oo Value of property near Lakes
      oo The possibility of visiting the Bay in the future
      oo The possibility of visiting Lakes in the future
      oo Other __________________

16. Thinking about how you voted among programs, please rate how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.  (Circle the number that matches your answer.)

Strongly Disagree

Neutral

Strongly Agree
  My choices would have been different if the economy in my area were better.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  It is important to improve waters in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, no matter how high the costs.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I do not think I should have to contribute any amount to the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay watershed.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I am concerned that the programs would hurt the economy.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  It was difficult to understand the descriptions of the programs.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I believe the programs will improve the environment as described.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  Some of the programs cost too much compared to what they would deliver.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  The changes offered by the programs happen too far into the future for me to really care about.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  The survey provided me with the information I needed to make a choice between the options shown.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

17. If you voted for NO FURTHER ACTION in any of the choices you were given, please let us know how much you agree or disagree with the each of the following statements.  If not, skip to the next question. (Circle the number that matches your answer.)

Strongly Disagree

Neutral

                                                                 Strongly Agree
  Nothing can be done to improve the quality of the Bay and freshwater lakes.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I would not vote for any program even if there were no costs to my household.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for NO FURTHER ACTION because the costs were too high compared to the environmental improvements.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for NO FURTHER ACTION because I am against  more government requirements and spending.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

18. If you voted for Program A or Program B in any of the choices you were given, please let us know how much you agree or disagree with the each of the following statements.  If not, skip this question. (Circle the number that matches your answer.)

Strongly Disagree

Neutral

Strongly Agree
  I voted for a program because I thought it would also lead to better water quality closer to my home.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for a program more for future generations than for myself.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for the program because I may visit the Chesapeake Bay or lakes in the watershed in the next few years.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for a program because I believe it is our responsibility to preserve wildlife and habitat in the Bay and Lakes.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
  I voted for a program so others could enjoy the Bay and lakes, rather than for myself.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Questions about you and your household

Finally, we would like to ask you a few questions about you and your household for statistical purposes.  The reports prepared for this study will summarize findings across all responses and will not associate responses with an individual.  Your answers will not be saved or stored in a way that can be associated with your name or address.  You will not be contacted about your responses or this survey.
19. Are you male or female?
Male
Female

10. What is your age?
_________ years old

11. What is your current marital status?
      Single, never married
      Married or living with a long-term partner
      Separated or divorced
      Widowed

10. How many children under age 18 are living at your home?
____________ children

11. What was your total pre-tax household income, including all earners in your household, in 2011?
      Under $25,000
      $25,000 - $34,999
      $35,000 - $49,999
      $50,000 - $74,999
      $75,000 - $99,999
      $100,000-$199,999
      $200,000 or more

10. What is the highest degree or level of school you have completed?
      No high school diploma
      High school diploma or GED
      Some college credit or college degree
      Some graduate school or professional school credit or a graduate or professional degree

10. Which of the following best describes the home or apartment you live in?
      Owned by you or someone in your household with a mortgage or loan
      Owned by you or someone in your household without a mortgage or loan
      Rented
      Other: ____________________________________________________

10. Have you or any member of your family ever worked for any of the following industries or jobs? (Please fill in the box next to all that apply.)
      Agriculture
      Commercial fishing
      Tour guide for fishing
      No one in my family has worked in these industries

   Thank you very much for your help.

The public reporting and recordkeeping burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 2 hours per response.  Send comments on the Agency's need for this information, the accuracy of the provided burden estimates, and any suggested methods for minimizing respondent burden, including through the use of automated collection techniques to the Director, Collection Strategies Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2822T), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20460.  Include the OMB control number in any correspondence.  Do not send the materials to this address.
10.

Attachment 5: First Federal Register Notice

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 6560-50-P
[EPA-HQ-OA-2012-0033; FRL-9674-7]

Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request;
Valuing Improved Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay Using Stated Preference
Methods; EPA ICR No. 2456.01, OMB Control No. 20XX-new

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency.

ACTION: Notice.

SUMMARY: In compliance with the Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.), this document announces that EPA is planning to submit a request for a new Information Collection Request (ICR) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Before submitting the ICR to OMB for review and approval, EPA is soliciting comments on specific aspects of the proposed information collection as described below.

DATES: Comments must be submitted on or before [insert date 60 days after publication in the
Federal Register].

ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA- 2012-0033 by one of the following methods:
:: www.regulations.gov: Follow the on-line instructions for submitting comments.
:: Email<EMAIL_ADDRESS>:: Fax:<PHONE_NUMBER>
:: Mail: Office of Environmental Information, Environmental Protection Agency, Mailcode: 28221T, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460, Instructions: Direct your comments to Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA- 2012-0033. EPA's policy is that all comments received will be included in the public docket without change and may be made available online at www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided, unless the comment includes information claimed to be Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Do not submit information that you consider to be CBI or otherwise protected through www.regulations.gov or e-mail. The www.regulations.gov website is an "anonymous access" system, which means EPA will not know your identity or contact information unless you provide it in the body of your comment. If you send an e-mail comment directly to EPA without going through www.regulations.gov your e-mail address will be automatically captured and included as part of the comment that is placed in the public docket and made available on the Internet. If you submit an electronic comment, EPA recommends that you include your name and other contact information in the body of your comment and with any disk or CD-ROM you submit. If EPA cannot read your comment due to technical difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to consider your comment. Electronic files should avoid the use of special characters, any form of encryption, and be free of any defects or viruses. For additional information about EPA's public docket visit the EPA Docket Center homepage at http://www.epa.gov/epahome/dockets.htm.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Nathalie Simon, National Center for
Environmental Economics, Office of Policy, (1809T), Environmental Protection Agency, 1200
Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460; telephone number:<PHONE_NUMBER>; fax number:
202-566-2363; email address<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

How Can I Access the Docket and/or Submit Comments?
EPA has established a public docket for this ICR under Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA-
2012-0033, which is available for online viewing at www.regulations.gov, or in person viewing at the Office of Environmental Information (OEI) Docket in the EPA Docket Center (EPA/DC), EPA West, Room 3334, 1301 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington, DC. The EPA/DC Public Reading Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding legal holidays. The telephone number for the Reading Room is<PHONE_NUMBER>, and the telephone number for the OEI Docket is<PHONE_NUMBER>.
Use www.regulations.gov to obtain a copy of the draft collection of information, submit or view public comments, access the index listing of the contents of the docket, and to access those documents in the public docket that are available electronically. Once in the system, select "search," then key in the docket ID number identified in this document.

What Information is EPA Particularly Interested in?

Pursuant to section 3506(c)(2)(A) of the PRA, EPA specifically solicits comments and information to enable it to:

(i) evaluate whether the proposed collection of information is necessary for the proper performance of the functions of the Agency, including whether the information will have practical utility;

(ii) evaluate the accuracy of the Agency's estimate of the burden of the proposed collection of information, including the validity of the methodology and assumptions used;

(iii) enhance the quality, utility, and clarity of the information to be collected; and (iv) minimize the burden of the collection of information on those who are to respond, including through the use of appropriate automated electronic, mechanical, or other technological collection techniques or other forms of information technology, e.g., permitting electronic submission of responses. In particular, EPA is requesting comments from very small businesses (those that employ less than 25) on examples of specific additional efforts that EPA could make to reduce the paperwork burden for very small businesses affected by this collection.

What Should I Consider when I Prepare My Comments for EPA?
You may find the following suggestions helpful for preparing your comments:
1. Explain your views as clearly as possible and provide specific examples.
2. Describe any assumptions that you used.
3. Provide copies of any technical information and/or data you used that support your views.
4. If you estimate potential burden or costs, explain how you arrived at the estimate that you provide.
5. Offer alternative ways to improve the collection activity.
6. Make sure to submit your comments by the deadline identified under DATES.
7. To ensure proper receipt by EPA, be sure to identify the docket ID number assigned to this action in the subject line on the first page of your response. You may also provide the name, date, and Federal Register citation.

What Information Collection Activity or ICR Does this Apply to?

Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA-2012-0033.

Affected entities: Entities potentially affected by this action are members of the general public who may be contacted to participate in the study.

Title: Willingness to Pay for Improved Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay

ICR numbers: EPA ICR No. 2456.01, OMB Control No. 2012-new.

ICR status: This ICR is for a new information collection activity. An Agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not required to respond to, a collection of information, unless it displays a currently valid OMB control number. The OMB control numbers for EPA's regulations in title 40 of the CFR, after appearing in the Federal Register when approved, are listed in 40 CFR part 9, are displayed either by publication in the Federal Register or by other appropriate means, such as on the related collection instrument or form, if applicable. The display of OMB control numbers in certain EPA regulations is consolidated in 40 CFR part 9.

Abstract: On May 12, 2009 the President signed Executive Order 13508 calling for the protection and restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In response to the Executive Order and other considerations the Environmental Protection Agency established Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment for the Chesapeake Bay. These TMDLs called for reductions of 25, 24, and 20%, respectively, of these pollutants (EPA 2011). The Chesapeake Bay watershed encompasses 64,000 square miles in parts of six states and the District of Columbia. While efforts have been underway to restore the Bay for more than 25 years, and significant progress has been made over that period, the TMDLs are necessary to continue progress toward the goal of a healthy Bay. As might be expected, a program on this scale is likely to be expensive. A 2004 report on implementation of the "tributary strategies" proposed under an earlier plan for Bay restoration estimated their cost at $28 billion in capital costs plus an additional $2.7 billion dollars per year in perpetuity for operating and maintenance costs (Blue Ribbon Panel 2004). The watershed states of New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, and Maryland, as well as the District of Columbia, have developed Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs) detailing the steps each will take to meet its obligations under the TMDLs. EPA has begun a new study to estimate costs of compliance with the TMDLs. While these costs may prove high, a multitude of benefits may also be anticipated to arise from restoring the Chesapeake Bay. It is important to put cost estimates in perspective by estimating corresponding benefits.

EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE) is undertaking a benefits analysis of improvements in Bay water quality under the TMDLs, as well as of ancillary benefits that might arise from terrestrial measures taken to improve water quality. As part of this analysis, NCEE plans to conduct a broad-based inquiry into benefits using a state-of-the-art stated preference survey. Benefits from the TMDLs for the Chesapeake will accrue to those who live on or near the Bay and its tributaries, as well as to those who live further away and may never visit the Bay but have a general concern for the environment. The latter category of benefits is typically called "non-use values" and estimating the monetary value can only be achieved through a stated preference survey.

In addition, a stated preference survey is able to estimate "use values," those benefits that accrue to individuals who choose to live on or near the Bay or recreate in the watershed. Stated preference surveys allow the analyst to define a specific object of choice or suite of choices such that benefits are defined in as precise a manner as feasible. While use benefits of water quality improvements in the Chesapeake Bay watershed will also be estimated through other revealed preference methods, the stated preference survey allows for careful specification of the choice scenarios and will complement estimates found using other methods. Participation in the survey will be voluntary and the identity of the participants will be kept confidential.

Burden Statement: The annual public reporting and recordkeeping burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 0.5 hours per response. Burden means the total time, effort, or financial resources expended by persons to generate, maintain, retain, or disclose or provide information to or for a Federal agency. This includes the time needed to review instructions; develop, acquire, install, and utilize technology and systems for the purposes of collecting, validating, and verifying information, processing and maintaining information, and disclosing and providing information; adjust the existing ways to comply with any previously applicable instructions and requirements which have subsequently changed; train personnel to be able to respond to a collection of information; search data sources; complete and review the collection of information; and transmit or otherwise disclose the information.
The ICR provides a detailed explanation of the Agency's estimate, which is only briefly summarized here:
   * Estimated total number of potential respondents: 1500.
   * Frequency of response: once.
   * Estimated total average number of responses for each respondent: 1.
   * Estimated total annual burden hours: 750 hours.
   * Estimated total annual costs: $ 15,975. This includes estimated respondent burden costs only as there are no capital costs or operating and maintenance costs associated with this collection of information.
What is the Next Step in the Process for this ICR?
EPA will consider the comments received and amend the ICR as appropriate. The final ICR package will then be submitted to OMB for review and approval pursuant to 5 CFR 1320.12. At that time, EPA will issue another Federal Register notice pursuant to 5 CFR 1320.5(a)(1)(iv) to announce the submission of the ICR to OMB and the opportunity to submit additional comments to OMB. If you have any questions about this ICR or the approval process, please contact the technical person listed under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT.

Dated: May 2, 2012.
Al McGartland, Office Director, National Center for Environmental Economics.
BILLING CODE: 6560-50-P
[FR Doc. 2012-12298 Filed 05/23/2012 at 8:45 am; Publication Date: 05/24/2012]

Attachment 6: Preview Letter to Mail Survey Recipients
Dear Resident:

      I am writing to let you know about an important survey on environmental protection and government regulations affecting the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding lands.  Over time, human activities have caused many changes in Chesapeake Bay and the rivers, streams, and lakes around it.  The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state governments are considering policies that could impact water quality, wildlife, and recreation in this region.  These policies differ in their outcomes and their costs.  Because of this, policymakers would like to know what policies would be supported by residents of the Chesapeake Bay region, as well as people who live further away.

      Your address was randomly selected to receive a survey about these policies as part of a scientifically-determined regional sample of households.  This survey, The Future of the Chesapeake, will help officials from the EPA and state governments to better understand your preferences over policies that would affect the future of water quality, wildlife and recreation in Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas.

      Sometime in the next few weeks, you will receive the survey booklet by mail.  Your participation is completely voluntary, and there are no penalties for not answering any questions.  Your help, however, is very important.  We cannot send this survey to everyone, so your answers will represent the opinions of many other Eastern U.S. residents like you.  By filling out this survey when it arrives, you will be participating in an important study that will help officials understand your priorities for public policy and the environment.  Your answers will be kept confidential to the extent provided by law.

      Your participation is extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate.  Please keep in mind that by quickly returning your completed survey, you will be helping to keep down the costs of collecting this important information.

      We hope that you find this survey important and interesting and thank you for your assistance in this project.

Sincerely,

[INSERT NAME], [INSERT TITLE]
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Environmental Economics

Attachment 7: Cover Letter to Mail Survey Recipients
Dear Resident:

      Within the last two weeks you received a letter informing you that, your household was selected at random to receive a short survey regarding environmental protection and government regulations affecting the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas.

      Thank you for your participation.  The survey, The Future of the Chesapeake Bay, is enclosed with this letter.

      Over time, human activities have caused many changes in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding rivers, streams, and lakes.  The Environmental Protection Agency and state governments are considering policies that could affect water quality, wildlife and recreation in these areas.  These policies differ in their outcomes and their costs.  Your answers to the survey will help government officials understand your priorities for public policy and the environment.

      Your responses to this survey are extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate.  All answers to the survey are kept confidential to the extent provided by law. Once we have received your survey, we will delete your name from all lists, so that your responses can never be traced back to you.  Of course, your participation is voluntary and you may refuse to answer any or all questions.

      We hope that you find this survey important and interesting and thank you for your assistance in this project. We would greatly appreciate if you could complete and return the survey using the prepaid envelope in the near future.

Sincerely,

[INSERT NAME], [INSERT TITLE]
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Environmental Economics

Attachment 8: Post Card Reminder to Mail Survey Recipients
                           OMB Control No. xxxx-xxxx
   Last week a survey, The Future of the Chesapeake Bay, was mailed to you concerning environmental protection and government regulations in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas.  If you have already returned your completed survey, please accept our sincere thanks.

   If you have not yet completed your survey, we ask that you please do so today.  You are one of a select few who have been chosen to participate.  Your answers will help us understand your priorities for public policy and the environment in the Eastern U.S.

   If you did not receive the survey or it was misplaced, please contact TBD at (###) ###-#### or xxx@xxx and we will send a replacement today.

   Regards,

   [INSERT NAME]
   Environmental Protection Agency
FRONT

                                     BACK

   United States Last week a survey was mailed to you concerning Environmental Protection Agencyand government regulatiNortheast Washington, DC 20460 you have already returned your completed
   Mail Code XXX our sincere thanks.

Attachment 9: Cover Letter to Recipients of the Second Survey Mailing
Dear Resident:

      Within the last few weeks a survey, The Future of the Chesapeake Bay, was sent to you about environmental protection and government regulations in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas.  Our records indicate that you have not yet returned a completed survey. You are one of a select few who have been chosen to participate.  Your answers to the survey will help officials from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state governments to better understand your preference over policies which would affect the future of water quality, wildlife and recreation in the Eastern U.S.

      Your responses to this survey are extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate.  If you have not yet returned your survey, we ask that you please do so today. Another copy of the survey is enclosed with this letter.

Over time, human activities have caused many changes in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding rivers, streams, and lakes.  The Environmental Protection Agency and state governments are considering policies that could affect water quality, wildlife and recreation in these areas.  These policies differ in their outcomes and their costs.  Your answers to the survey will help government officials understand your priorities for the environment and regulations.

      All answers to the survey are kept confidential to the extent provided by law. Once we have received your survey, we will delete your name from all lists, so that your responses can never be traced back to you.  Of course, your participation is voluntary and you may refuse to answer any or all questions.

      We hope that you find this survey important and interesting and thank you for your assistance in this project. We would greatly appreciate if you could complete the survey today and return it using the prepaid envelope.

Sincerely,

[INSERT NAME], [INSERT TITLE]
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Environmental Economics

Attachment 10: Reminder Letter to Recipients of the Second Survey Mailing
Dear Resident:

      Within the last week a survey, The Future of the Chesapeake Bay, was mailed to you concerning environmental protection and government regulations in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas. Through a random process, your address was selected to receive the survey as part of a scientifically-determined regional sample. If you have not yet completed your survey, we ask that you please do so today. You are one of a select few who have been chosen to participate.  Your answers to the survey will help officials from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state governments to better understand your preference over policies which would affect the future of water quality, wildlife and recreation in the Eastern U.S.

      Your responses to this survey are extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate.

      Over time, human activities have caused many changes in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding rivers, streams, and lakes.  The EPA and state governments are considering policies that could affect water quality, wildlife and recreation in these areas.  These policies differ in their outcomes and their costs.  Your answers to the survey will help government officials understand your priorities for the environment and regulations.

      All answers to the survey are kept confidential to the extent provided by law. Once we have received your survey, we will delete your name from all lists, so that your responses can never be traced back to you.  Of course, your participation is voluntary and you may refuse to answer any or all questions.

      We hope that you find the survey important and interesting and thank you for your assistance in this project. We would greatly appreciate if you could return the completed survey using the prepaid envelope in the near future.  If you have misplaced your survey, please contact TBD at (###) ###-### or XXX@XXX for a replacement.

Sincerely,

[INSERT NAME], [INSERT TITLE]
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Environmental Economics
Attachment 11: Letter to Participants in the Telephone Non-response Survey
Dear Resident:

      Within the last week a survey, The Future of the Chesapeake Bay, was mailed to you concerning environmental protection and government regulations in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas. Your address was randomly selected to receive the survey as part of a scientifically-determined regional sample. Our records indicate that you did not return the completed survey. While we are no longer asking that you complete the full survey, we will be contacting you by phone to participate in a brief telephone survey that is expected to take less than 5 minutes. Included with this letter is a small token of our appreciation which is your to keep.

      Your answers to the telephone survey will help officials from the Environmental Protection Agency and state governments to better understand preferences over policies which would affect the future of water quality, wildlife and recreation in the Eastern U.S.  You will be participating in an important study that will help government officials understand your priorities for the environment and regulations.

      Your responses are extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate. All answers to the telephone survey are kept confidential to the extent provided by law. After you participate we will delete your name from all lists, so that your responses can never be traced back to you.  Of course, your participation is voluntary and you may refuse to answer any or all questions.

      We hope that you will find the telephone survey important and interesting and thank you for your assistance in this project.

Sincerely,

[INSERT NAME], [INSERT TITLE]
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Environmental Economics
Attachment 12: Cover Letter to Recipients of the Priority Mail Non-response Questionnaire
Dear Resident:

      Within the last week a survey, The Future of the Chesapeake Bay, was mailed to you concerning environmental protection and government regulations in the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas. Through a random process, your address was selected to receive the survey as part of a scientifically-determined regional sample. Our records indicate that you did not return the completed survey. While we are no longer asking that you complete the full survey, a brief questionnaire is enclosed with this letter that is expected to take less than 5 minutes to complete. Also included is a small token of our appreciation which is your to keep.

      Your answers to the questionnaire will help officials from the Environmental Protection Agency and state governments to better understand preferences over policies which would affect the future of water quality, wildlife and recreation in the Eastern U.S.  By filling out this questionnaire, you will be participating in an important study that will help government officials understand your priorities for the environment and regulations.

      Your responses to this questionnaire are extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate. All answers to the survey are kept confidential to the extent provided by law. Once we have received your questionnaire, we will delete your name from all lists, so that your responses can never be traced back to you.  Of course, your participation is voluntary and you may refuse to answer any or all questions.

      We hope that you find this questionnaire important and interesting and thank you for your assistance in this project. We would greatly appreciate if you could return the questionnaire in the next several days.

Sincerely,

[INSERT NAME], [INSERT TITLE]
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Environmental Economics

Attachment 13: Priority Mail Non-response Questionnaire
                         The Chesapeake Bay Watershed

The Chesapeake Bay Watershed is shown below in green.

The Watershed spreads over parts of six states and Washington DC. It contains 150 major rivers and thousands of lakes, small rivers and streams. Water draining from these lands enters these waterways and eventually the Chesapeake Bay.

The Chesapeake Bay Watershed includes two types of water bodies, with different characteristics and potential problems.

1. In the last five years, about how often have you visited watershed lakes or rivers, or the Chesapeake Bay tidal waters to do recreational activities such as swimming, water skiing or jet skiing; fishing; sailing, motor boating or kayaking; viewing nature, including bird watching; biking or walking on trails along the water?

                       Lakes and rivers in the Watershed
                          Chesapeake Bay tidal waters
I have never visited
                                      
                                      
I have not visited in the last 5 years
                                      
                                      
Once over the last 5 years
                                      
                                      
A few times over the last 5 years
                                      
                                      
About once a year
                                      
                                      
2 to 10 times a year
                                      
                                      
More than 10 times a year
                                      
                                      

2. How do you think environmental conditions have changed in lakes and rivers closest to your home and in  -  -  - the Chesapeake Bay? (Please check one box in each column)

                           Lakes and Rivers near you
                                Chesapeake Bay
Better than they were 10 years ago
                                      
                                      
About the same as they were 10 years ago
                                      
                                      
Worse than they were 10 years ago
                                      
                                      
Don't know
                                      
                                      

3. On a scale from 1 to 5, please circle the number that indicates how much you agree or disagree with each statement.

                                   Strongly
                                   Disagree

                                    Neutral

                                Strongly Agree
                                 Don't Know
 I am concerned about current pollution levels in lakes and rivers.
                                       1
                                       2
                                       3
                                       4
                                       5
                                      DK
 I am concerned about current pollution levels in the Chesapeake Bay.
                                       1
                                       2
                                       3
                                       4
                                       5
                                      DK
 Some decrease in environmental quality is inevitable as our economy grows.
                                       1
                                       2
                                       3
                                       4
                                       5
                                      DK
 I am against more government requirements and spending.
                                       1
                                       2
                                       3
                                       4
                                       5
                                      DK

4. Have you read or heard of programs to reduce pollutants in the Chesapeake Bay watershed?
  Yes
  No

5. Are you male or female?	 Male    Female

6. What is your age?	 years old

7. What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
  No high school diploma
  High school diploma or GED
  Some college credit or college degree
  Some graduate school, professional school credit, or a graduate or professional degree

8. In 2011, what was your total pre-tax household income, including all earners in your household?
  Under $25,000
 $75,000 - $99,999
  $25,000 - $34,999
 $100,000 - $199,999
  $35,000 - $49,999
 $200,000 or more
  $50,000 - $74,999

Attachment 14: Telephone Non-response Screener Script
     The Future of the Chesapeake Bay Telephone Nonresponse Questionnaire

Hello, this is _________________calling from Abt Associates.  We are conducting an important survey of U.S. residents for the Environmental Protection Agency, or EPA. This is not a sales call. This is a follow-up to a survey that was mailed to your household last week along with a letter from the EPA and a small incentive. Your participation is extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate.

SL1
	In order to select just one person to interview, may I please speak to the person in your 	household, age 18 or older, who has had the most recent birthday?

      1	Rspn on line		          SKIP TO SL2
      2    Eligible rspn is not on phone     SKIP TO SL1b
      3	Rspn unavailable		          SCHEDULE CALLBACK
      4	No respondent over 18	          THANK AND SCREEN OUT
      8	Don't Know (VOL)	          THANK AND TERMINATE  -  Soft Refusal
      9	Refused (VOL)		          THANK AND TERMINATE  -  Hard Refusal

SL1b

      May I speak with that person?

      1    Rspn called to phone	SKIP TO SL1c
      2    Rspn unavailable		SCHEDULE CALLBACK
      8	Don't Know (VOL)	THANK AND TERMINATE  -  Soft Refusal
      9	Refused  (VOL)		THANK AND TERMINATE  -  Hard Refusal

SL1c

      Hello, this is _________________calling from Abt Associates.  We are conducting an important survey of U.S. residents for the Environmental Protection Agency, or EPA.  This is a follow-up to a survey that was mailed to your household last week along with a letter from the EPA and a small incentive. Your participation is extremely important to ensure that the survey results are complete and accurate. Could we begin now?

      IF ASKED:  This is a short survey which should take no more than five minutes.

      1	Yes
      2	No	time			SCHEDULE CALLBACK
      8	Don't Know (VOL)	THANK AND TERMINATE  -  Soft Refusal
      9	Refused  (VOL)		THANK AND TERMINATE  -  Hard Refusal

SL2

     Do you have a cell phone in addition to the line on which we're speaking right now?

     1	Yes, also have cell phone
     2	No, this is only phone		SKIP TO SA2
     8	Don't know (VOL)			THANK AND END, screen out
     9	Refused (VOL)			THANK AND END, soft refusal

SA1

     Of all of the phone calls that you or your family receives, are... (Read List)

     1	all or almost all calls received on cell phones,
     2	some received on cell phones and some received on land lines, or
     3	very few or none on cell phones.
     8	Don't know (VOL)
     9	Refused (VOL)

SA2

     Record gender from observation.  (Ask only if Necessary) (MATCHES QUESTION 18 IN MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 3 IN NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1	Male
     2	Female
     8	Don't Know (VOL)
     9	Refused (VOL)

Q1

     First, could you please tell me about how often you have visited the Chesapeake Bay watershed lakes or rivers to do recreational activities? Recreational activities include swimming, water skiing or jet skiing; fishing; sailing, motor boating or kayaking; viewing nature, including bird watching; biking or walking on trails along the water. Is it... (MATCHES QUESTION 2 IN MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 1 IN NONRESPONSE SURVEY)

     1	Never visited
     2	Have not visited in the last 5 years
     3	Once over the last 5 years
     4	A few times over the last 5 years
     5	About once a year
     6	2 to 10 times a year
     7	More than 10 times a year
     8 Don't Know (VOL)
     9 Refused  (VOL)
Q2

     Now, could you please tell me about how often you have visited Chesapeake Bay tidal waters to do any of the same recreational activities? Is it... (MATCHES QUESTION 2 IN MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 1 IN NONRESPONSE SURVEY)

     1	Never visited
     2	Have not visited in the last 5 years
     3	Once over the last 5 years
     4	A few times over the last 5 years
     5	About once a year
     6	2 to 10 times a year
     7	More than 10 times a year
     8 Don't Know (VOL)
     9 Refused  (VOL)

Q3a

In your opinion, how do you think environmental conditions have changed in lakes and rivers closest to your home?  Are they... (MATCHES...)

     1	Better than they were 10 years ago
     2	About the same as they were 10 years ago
     3	Worse than they were 10 years ago
     4	Don't know (VOL)
     5	Refused (VOL)

Q3b

In your opinion, how do you think environmental conditions have changed in the Chesapeake Bay? Are they... (MATCHES...)

     1	Better than they were 10 years ago
     2	About the same as they were 10 years ago
     3	Worse than they were 10 years ago
     4	Don't know (VOL)
     5	Refused (VOL)

Q4a

     On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is "strongly disagree" and 5 is "strongly agree", how much do you agree or disagree with this statement: "I am concerned about current pollution levels in lakes and rivers"? (MATCHES QUESTION 5 IN THE MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 2 IN THE NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1     2     3     4     5	8 Don't Know (VOL)	9 Refused (VOL)

Q4b

     On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is "strongly disagree" and 5 is "strongly agree", how much do you agree or disagree with this statement: "I am concerned about current pollution levels in the Chesapeake Bay"? (MATCHES QUESTION 5 IN THE MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 2 IN THE NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1     2     3     4     5	8 Don't Know (VOL)	9 Refused (VOL)

Q4c

     On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is "strongly disagree" and 5 is "strongly agree", how much do you agree or disagree with this statement: "Some decrease in environmental quality is unavoidable as our economy grows"? (MATCHES QUESTION 5 IN THE MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 2 IN THE NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1     2     3     4     5	8 Don't Know (VOL)	9 Refused (VOL)

Q4d

     On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is "strongly disagree" and 5 is "strongly agree", how much do you agree or disagree with this statement: "I am against any additional government requirements and spending."   (MATCHES QUESTION 16 IN THE MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION X IN THE NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1     2     3     4     5	8 Don't Know (VOL)	9 Refused (VOL)

Q5

     Have you read or heard of programs to reduce pollution in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed? (MATCHES QUESTION 8 IN THE MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION X IN THE NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1	Yes
     2	No
     4	Don't know (VOL)
     5	Refused (VOL)

Now, I have just a few questions for classification purposes.

D1
	NOTE: We should not accept any ages younger than 18 for this question

     What is your age? (MATCHES QUESTION 19 IN MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 4 IN NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     ________ Years        8 Don't Know (VOL)     9 Refused (VOL)

D3
     What is the highest level of education that you have completed?  Is it... (READ LIST) 	(MATCHES QUESTION 23 IN MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 6 IN NON 	RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1	No high school diploma
     2	High school diploma or GED
     3	Some college credit or college degree
     4	Some graduate school, professional school credit, or a graduate or professional degree
     8 Don't Know (VOL)
     9 Refused  (VOL)

D6

     Including everyone living in your household, which of the following categories best describes your total household income before taxes?  Is it ... (READ LIST) (MATCHES QUESTION 22 IN MAIN SURVEY, MATCHES QUESTION 10 IN NON RESPONSE SURVEY)

     1	Less than $25,000,
     2	$25,000 to $34,999,
     3	$35,000 to $49,999,
     4	$50,000 to $74,999,
     5	$75,000 to $99,999,
     6	$100,000 to $199,999,
     7	$200,000 or more
     98	Don't know (VOL)
     99	Refused (VOL)

CLOSING:

     Thank you very much for your time, and have a great evening/day

Attachment 15: Description of Statistical Survey Design

      The following represents an anticipated experimental design for survey implementation, along with the associated number of completed surveys that will be required. Part B of this supporting statement provides detail on the sampling design. The proposed design and sampling plan is based on standard design and sampling theory for choice experiments and population surveys, as outlined by Louviere et al. (2000), Kuhfeld (2009) and Dillman (2000).  EPA notes that the anticipated experimental design described here is preliminary and it may be subject to refinements during design evaluations to account for issues such as dominant or dominated pairs, ecological feasibility, and to remove attribute combinations which do not provide information for estimation.
      The purpose of the Chesapeake Bay survey is to calculate average per household parameters (e.g., willingness to pay and choice probabilities) within a given survey population. Additional analysis that differentiates per-household parameters may be conducted within groups of households which use or do not use the Chesapeake Bay.

Experimental design for the choice experiments
      Based on focus groups and pretests, and guided by realistic ranges of attribute outcomes, the anticipated experimental design includes two multi-attribute choice options or alternatives, A and B, together with a fixed status quo or "no policy" option. Choice options, named Program A and Program B, are characterized by three potential levels for environmental attributes and six different levels of annual household cost. Furthermore, there are two additional factors of the split-sample experiments:
      1. Constant vs. declining baseline environmental attributes in the "No action" choice;
      2. Attributes will be offered in terms of either "inputs" or "endpoints."
Different split-sample experiments will be produced in the three geographic divisions:

      1. Bay States: Maryland, Virginia, District of Columbia
      2. Watershed States: Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia
      3. Other East Coast States: Vermont, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida
      Within these geographic divisions, the split-sample experiment cells will collect more detailed information in the Bay states, with "input" information only in the Watershed and Other East Coast states, as stipulated in Table A15-1.  Contingent on the available budget and required accuracy, Cell 8 can be added for Watershed States utilizing "constant" baseline and "endpoint"-based attributes.

Table A15-1. Split-sample design cells.

                              Geographic division
                                Baseline factor
                            Stated preferences over
Cell 1
                                  Bay States
                                   Constant
                                     Input
Cell 2
                                  Bay States
                                   Declining
                                     Input
Cell 3
                                  Bay States
                                   Declining
                                   Endpoint
Cell 4
                                   Watershed
                                   Constant
                                     Input
Cell 5
                                   Watershed
                                   Declining
                                     Input
Cell 6
                               Other East Coast
                                   Constant
                                     Input
Cell 7
                               Other East Coast
                                   Declining
                                     Input
Cell 8*
                                   Watershed
                                   Constant
                                   Endpoint
Note: Implementation of Cell 8 (*) sample is contingent on available budget and accuracy requirements.

      For the "inputs" version of the questionnaire, options A and B are characterized by levels for the following five attributes:
         1. Change in dissolved oxygen in A and B (x1A; x1B)  -  3 possible levels
         2. Change in water clarity in A and B (x2A; x2B)  -  3 possible levels
         3. Change in aquatic grass coverage in A and B (x3A; x3B)  -  3 possible levels
         4. Change in lake condition in A and B (x4A; x5B)  -  3 possible levels
         5. Cost in A and B (x5A; x5B) -  6 possible levels
      For the "endpoints" version of the questionnaire, options A and B are characterized by levels for the following five attributes:
         1. Change in water clarity in A and B (x1A; x1B)  -  3 possible levels
         2. Change in blue crab abundance in A and B (x2A; x2B)  -  3 possible levels
         3. Change in oyster abundance in A and B (x3A; x3B)  -  3 possible levels
         4. Change in lake condition in A and B (x4A; x5B)  -  3 possible levels
         5. Cost in A and B (x5A; x5B) -  6 possible levels
This implies an experimental design characterized by [3[4]x6] for each alternative, or [3[8]x6[2]] for alternatives A and B combined for either "inputs" or "endpoints" version of the instrument.
      To construct a preliminary main effects design that is sufficiently flexible to estimate alternative specific main effects and response patterns (i.e., a non-generic design), we begin with the smallest available 100% efficient linear main effects plan for a full 3[8]x6[2] design. This treats each attribute of each alternative as a separate design element.  Elimination of duplicate profiles reduces efficiency to 99.3%. From this candidate design, an initial evaluation was conducted to identify dominant/dominated pairs.  These were adjusted to eliminate dominance, as well as to remove duplicates symmetric with respect to swapping Options A and B.  These adjustments result in only minimal changes in orthogonality and other design properties. The result is a design with 72 profiles, with attributes labeled following the above notation, and levels indicated by integers 1...N, where N for each attribute is the number of levels identified above.
      Following common practice in the environmental economics literature, we anticipate three choice questions per survey.  This allows the 72 profiles to be included (orthogonally blocked) in 24 unique survey booklets, as illustrated in Table A15-2. The attribute levels applied within surveys are summarized in Table A15-3. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that 6 to 12 completed responses are required for each profile in order to achieve large sample statistical properties for choice experiments (Louviere et al. 2000, p. 104, citing Bunch and Batsell 1989).  Following this guidance, the above design will require 24x12 = 288 completed surveys, or 12 completed surveys for each unique survey booklet.  This will provide a total of 864 profile responses per cell.

Table A15-2: Set of 72 Design Profiles used within each design cell
Version
                                Choice Question
x1A
x2A
x3A
x4A
x5A
x1B
x2B
x3B
x4B
x5B
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              4
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              4
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              6
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              5
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              6
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              4
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              4
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              6
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              5
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              4
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              6
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              6
                                                                              4
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              4
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              5
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              4
                                                                              5
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              4
                                                                              5
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              5
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              5
                                                                              6
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              6
                                                                              6
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              5
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              6
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              4
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              7
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              4
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              7
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              5
                                                                              7
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              6
                                                                              8
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              6
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              8
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              5
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              6
                                                                              8
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              5
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              9
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              6
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              4
                                                                              9
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              6
                                                                              9
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              4
                                                                             10
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              5
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                             10
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              4
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              4
                                                                             10
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              6
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                             11
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              5
                                                                             11
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              5
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                             11
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                             12
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              4
                                                                             12
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              5
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              5
                                                                             12
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              6
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              6
                                                                             13
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                             13
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              4
                                                                             13
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              5
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              1
                                                                              5
                                                                             14
                                                                              1
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                             14
                                                                              2
                                                                              1
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              5