Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.9308
                                    0.9196
                                    0.9107
                                    0.8972
                                    0.8759
                                    0.8656
                                    0.8181
                                   B737-800W
                                    BOEING
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.8911
                                    0.8804
                                    0.8719
                                    0.8589
                                    0.8385
                                    0.8287
                                    0.7832
                                  B737-900ER
                                    BOEING
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.9586
                                    0.9470
                                    0.9379
                                    0.9240
                                    0.9020
                                    0.8914
                                    0.8425
                                  B737-900ERW
                                    BOEING
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.9586
                                    0.9470
                                    0.9379
                                    0.9240
                                    0.9020
                                    0.8914
                                    0.8425
                                   A319-NEO
                                    AIRBUS
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7262
                                    0.7169
                                    0.7096
                                    0.6983
                                    0.6808
                                    0.6724
                                    0.6339
                                   A319-NEO
                                    AIRBUS
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7262
                                    0.7169
                                    0.7096
                                    0.6983
                                    0.6808
                                    0.6724
                                    0.6339
                                   A320-NEO
                                    AIRBUS
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7272
                                    0.7179
                                    0.7105
                                    0.6992
                                    0.6817
                                    0.6733
                                    0.6348
                                   A320-NEO
                                    AIRBUS
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7272
                                    0.7179
                                    0.7105
                                    0.6992
                                    0.6817
                                    0.6733
                                    0.6348
                                   A321-NEO
                                    AIRBUS
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.8557
                                    0.8448
                                    0.8361
                                    0.8228
                                    0.8022
                                    0.7923
                                    0.7469
                                   A321-NEO
                                    AIRBUS
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.8557
                                    0.8448
                                    0.8361
                                    0.8228
                                    0.8022
                                    0.7923
                                    0.7469
                                    B737-7
                                    BOEING
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7290
                                    0.7266
                                    0.7209
                                    0.7121
                                    0.6987
                                    0.6931
                                    0.6688
                                 B737-8 (BBJ)
                                    BOEING
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7817
                                    0.7792
                                    0.7730
                                    0.7635
                                    0.7492
                                    0.7432
                                    0.7171
                                    B737-8
                                    BOEING
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7817
                                    0.7792
                                    0.7730
                                    0.7635
                                    0.7492
                                    0.7432
                                    0.7171
                                    B737-9
                                    BOEING
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.8247
                                    0.8220
                                    0.8155
                                    0.8055
                                    0.7904
                                    0.7841
                                    0.7566
                                     CS100
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.6550
                                    0.6501
                                    0.6439
                                    0.6346
                                    0.6201
                                    0.6132
                                    0.5816
                                     CS300
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7120
                                    0.7066
                                    0.7000
                                    0.6898
                                    0.6741
                                    0.6665
                                    0.6322
                                   MS-21-300
                                     IRKUT
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7380
                                    0.7380
                                    0.7380
                                    0.7271
                                    0.7103
                                    0.7028
                                    0.6688
                                   MS-21-300
                                     IRKUT
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7380
                                    0.7380
                                    0.7380
                                    0.7271
                                    0.7103
                                    0.7028
                                    0.6688
                                   MS-21-200
                                     IRKUT
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.6870
                                    0.6870
                                    0.6870
                                    0.6769
                                    0.6612
                                    0.6542
                                    0.6226
                                   MS-21-200
                                     IRKUT
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.6870
                                    0.6870
                                    0.6870
                                    0.6769
                                    0.6612
                                    0.6542
                                    0.6226
                                    C919ER
                                     COMAC
                                 Air Transport
                                 Single Aisle
                                    0.7120
                                    0.7120
                                    0.7082
                                    0.6969
                                    0.6795
                                    0.6711
                                    0.6331
                                    CRJ700
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.6144
                                    0.6055
                                    0.5991
                                    0.5894
                                    0.5735
                                    0.5664
                                    0.5339
                                    CRJ900
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.6451
                                    0.6357
                                    0.6290
                                    0.6189
                                    0.6021
                                    0.5947
                                    0.5606
                                    CRJ1000
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.6738
                                    0.6640
                                    0.6570
                                    0.6464
                                    0.6290
                                    0.6212
                                    0.5855
                                   ERJ135-LR
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.4182
                                    0.4121
                                    0.4078
                                    0.4012
                                    0.3903
                                    0.3855
                                    0.3634
                                    ERJ145
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.4201
                                    0.4141
                                    0.4097
                                    0.4031
                                    0.3922
                                    0.3873
                                    0.3651
                                    ERJ175
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.6877
                                    0.6777
                                    0.6706
                                    0.6597
                                    0.6419
                                    0.6340
                                    0.5976
                                    ERJ190
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.7769
                                    0.7656
                                    0.7575
                                    0.7453
                                    0.7252
                                    0.7162
                                    0.6751
                                    ERJ195
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.7699
                                    0.7588
                                    0.7508
                                    0.7386
                                    0.7187
                                    0.7098
                                    0.6690
                                    RRJ-95
                                    SUKHOI
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.6699
                                    0.6602
                                    0.6532
                                    0.6427
                                    0.6254
                                    0.6177
                                    0.5823
                                   RRJ-95LR
                                    SUKHOI
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.7154
                                    0.7051
                                    0.6977
                                    0.6864
                                    0.6679
                                    0.6597
                                    0.6219
                                    MRJ-70
                                  MITSUBISHI
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.5340
                                    0.5340
                                    0.5340
                                    0.5257
                                    0.5121
                                    0.5060
                                    0.4782
                                    MRJ-90
                                  MITSUBISHI
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.5540
                                    0.5540
                                    0.5540
                                    0.5454
                                    0.5313
                                    0.5250
                                    0.4961
                                  ERJ-175 E2
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.5920
                                    0.5892
                                    0.5831
                                    0.5739
                                    0.5588
                                    0.5521
                                    0.5213
                                  ERJ-190 E2
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.6040
                                    0.6011
                                    0.5949
                                    0.5856
                                    0.5702
                                    0.5633
                                    0.5318
                                  ERJ-195 E2
                                    EMBRAER
                                 Air Transport
                                 Regional Jet
                                    0.6150
                                    0.6121
                                    0.6058
                                    0.5962
                                    0.5806
                                    0.5736
                                    0.5415
                                    ATR42-5
                                      ATR
                                 Air Transport
                                   Turboprop
                                    0.3353
                                    0.3311
                                    0.3280
                                    0.3234
                                    0.3157
                                    0.3125
                                    0.3009
                                    ATR72-2
                                      ATR
                                 Air Transport
                                   Turboprop
                                    0.3779
                                    0.3732
                                    0.3697
                                    0.3645
                                    0.3559
                                    0.3522
                                    0.3392
                                     Q400
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                 Air Transport
                                   Turboprop
                                    0.4960
                                    0.4898
                                    0.4852
                                    0.4783
                                    0.4670
                                    0.4623
                                    0.4451
                                    CL-605
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.4990
                                    0.4928
                                    0.4878
                                    0.4804
                                    0.4685
                                    0.4633
                                    0.4411
                                    CL-850
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.4911
                                    0.4849
                                    0.4801
                                    0.4727
                                    0.4610
                                    0.4559
                                    0.4341
                                    G-5000
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.6428
                                    0.6348
                                    0.6285
                                    0.6188
                                    0.6035
                                    0.5969
                                    0.5683
                                    G-6000
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.6924
                                    0.6838
                                    0.6770
                                    0.6666
                                    0.6501
                                    0.6429
                                    0.6121
                                   FAL900LX
                               DASSAULT-AVIATION
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.4712
                                    0.4653
                                    0.4607
                                    0.4536
                                    0.4424
                                    0.4375
                                    0.4166
                                     FAL7X
                               DASSAULT-AVIATION
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.4911
                                    0.4849
                                    0.4801
                                    0.4727
                                    0.4610
                                    0.4559
                                    0.4341
                                    ERJLEG
                                    EMBRAER
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.4990
                                    0.4928
                                    0.4878
                                    0.4804
                                    0.4685
                                    0.4633
                                    0.4411
                                      GVI
                                  GULFSTREAM
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.5734
                                    0.5663
                                    0.5607
                                    0.5521
                                    0.5385
                                    0.5326
                                    0.5072
                                     GULF5
                                  GULFSTREAM
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.5853
                                    0.5780
                                    0.5722
                                    0.5635
                                    0.5495
                                    0.5434
                                    0.5174
                                     GULF4
                                  GULFSTREAM
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.6419
                                    0.6339
                                    0.6275
                                    0.6179
                                    0.6026
                                    0.5959
                                    0.5674
                                  Global 7000
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.5880
                                    0.5880
                                    0.5823
                                    0.5736
                                    0.5597
                                    0.5538
                                    0.5280
                                  Global 8000
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Large BGA
                                    0.5960
                                    0.5960
                                    0.5930
                                    0.5842
                                    0.5702
                                    0.5641
                                    0.5380
                                 Learjet 40XR
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3344
                                    0.3305
                                    0.3276
                                    0.3234
                                    0.3165
                                    0.3136
                                    0.3037
                                 Learjet 45XR
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.2947
                                    0.2912
                                    0.2887
                                    0.2850
                                    0.2790
                                    0.2764
                                    0.2676
                                 Learjet 60XR
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3444
                                    0.3403
                                    0.3374
                                    0.3330
                                    0.3259
                                    0.3229
                                    0.3127
                                    CL-300
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3831
                                    0.3785
                                    0.3753
                                    0.3704
                                    0.3626
                                    0.3592
                                    0.3478
                                    CNA525B
                                    CESSNA
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.2421
                                    0.2393
                                    0.2372
                                    0.2341
                                    0.2292
                                    0.2271
                                    0.2199
                                    CNA525C
                                    CESSNA
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.2421
                                    0.2393
                                    0.2372
                                    0.2341
                                    0.2292
                                    0.2271
                                    0.2199
                                  CNA560-XLS
                                    CESSNA
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3265
                                    0.3226
                                    0.3199
                                    0.3157
                                    0.3090
                                    0.3062
                                    0.2965
                                    CNA680
                                    CESSNA
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3865
                                    0.3820
                                    0.3788
                                    0.3739
                                    0.3660
                                    0.3627
                                    0.3513
                                    CNA750
                                    CESSNA
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.4084
                                    0.4036
                                    0.4002
                                    0.3951
                                    0.3868
                                    0.3833
                                    0.3713
                                   FAL2000LX
                               DASSAULT-AVIATION
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3870
                                    0.3824
                                    0.3792
                                    0.3742
                                    0.3663
                                    0.3630
                                    0.3514
                                    EMB505
                                    EMBRAER
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.2749
                                    0.2716
                                    0.2693
                                    0.2658
                                    0.2602
                                    0.2578
                                    0.2496
                                     G280
                                  GULFSTREAM
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.4426
                                    0.4374
                                    0.4337
                                    0.4280
                                    0.4190
                                    0.4152
                                    0.4021
                                    GULF150
                                  GULFSTREAM
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3850
                                    0.3805
                                    0.3772
                                    0.3723
                                    0.3644
                                    0.3611
                                    0.3496
                                  Learjet 70
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3457
                                    0.3416
                                    0.3387
                                    0.3344
                                    0.3274
                                    0.3244
                                    0.3142
                                  Learjet 75
                                  BOMBARDIER
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3457
                                    0.3416
                                    0.3387
                                    0.3344
                                    0.3274
                                    0.3244
                                    0.3142
                                   CNA680-S
                                    CESSNA
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3865
                                    0.3820
                                    0.3788
                                    0.3739
                                    0.3660
                                    0.3627
                                    0.3513
                                   CNA750-X
                                    CESSNA
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.3716
                                    0.3672
                                    0.3641
                                    0.3594
                                    0.3519
                                    0.3487
                                    0.3378
                                     PC-24
                                    PILATUS
                                      BGA
                                   Small BGA
                                    0.2930
                                    0.2918
                                    0.2894
                                    0.2857
                                    0.2798
                                    0.2773
                                    0.2687
Representative Cumulative Metric Value Improvement and Cumulative Non-Recurring Cost (NRC) by Aircraft Category
The following table shows examples of representative non-recurring costs for each aircraft size category. We could observe that the more technologies inserted, there is a diminishing MV% benefit to the amount of NRC spent.
MV%
Small BGA NRC ($B)
Large BGA NRC ($B)
Turboprop NRC ($B)
Regional Jet NRC ($B)
Single Aisle - legacy NRC ($B)
                        Single Aisle - new gen NRC ($B)

Small Twin Aisle - legacy NRC ($B)
Small Twin Aisle - new gen - NRC ($B)
Large Twin Aisle - legacy NRC ($B)
Large Twin Aisle - new generation NRC ($B)
Large Quad NRC ($B)
                                     3.50%
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.2
$0.2
$0.2
$0.2
$0.3
$0.5
$0.3
                                     7.10%
$0.2
$0.3
$0.2
$0.3
$0.4
$0.4
$0.7
$0.7
$1.0
$1.2
$1.0
                                     7.20%
$0.2
$0.3
$0.3
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.7
$0.7
$1.0
$1.2
$1.0
                                     7.25%
$0.2
$0.3
$0.3
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.7
$0.7
$1.0
$1.6
$1.0
                                     7.70%
$0.3
$0.4
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.5
$0.7
$0.7
$1.0
$1.6
$1.0
                                     7.73%
$0.3
$0.4
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.5
$0.7
>$1.1
$1.0
$1.6
$1.1
                                     7.85%
$0.3
$0.4
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.8
$0.7
>$1.1
$1.0
$1.6
$1.1
                                     7.88%
$0.3
$0.4
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.1
>$1.4
$1.6
$1.2
                                     8.38%
$0.3
>$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
$0.8
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.1
>$1.4
$1.6
$1.2
                                     8.48%
$0.5
>$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
$0.8
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.1
>$1.4
$1.6
$1.2
                                     8.75%
$0.5
>$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
$1.6
>$1.8
                                     9.13%
$0.5
>$0.6
$0.5
$0.5
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
$1.6
>$1.8
                                     9.20%
$0.5
>$0.6
$0.6
$0.5
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
$1.6
>$1.8
                                     9.38%
$0.5
>$0.6
$0.6
$0.5
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
>$2.0
>$1.8
                                     9.48%
$0.6
>$0.6
$0.6
>$0.6
$0.8
$0.8
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
>$2.0
>$1.8
                                     9.63%
$0.6
>$0.6
$0.6
>$0.6
$0.8
>$1.0
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
>$2.0
>$1.8
                                     9.88%
$0.6
>$0.6
>$0.7
>$0.6
>$1.0
>$1.0
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
>$2.0
>$1.8
                                    >10%
>$0.8
>$0.6
>$0.7
>$0.6
>$1.0
>$1.0
>$1.2
>$1.1
>$1.4
>$2.0
>$1.8
Selected Technology Profiles
The following sections are selected technology profiles that provide details of each of the most important fuel burn reducing technologies that were analyzed. Each of the profiles explain the background of each technology, alongside with its source of fuel burn improvements, technology applications, metric value improvement, commercial & technical feasibility, and non-recurring engineering cost estimate by aircraft size category. This report elaborates only selected technology profiles that are most pertinent to metric value improvement, as it is the focus of the analysis in this report. A more complete technology profile list can be found in the March 2015 report.
Engine Technologies
Major engine OEMs are continually adding to their technology portfolio. Big Four OEMs are spending between $800M and $1.2B on R&D, so these types of upgrades are part of the ongoing business model to keep competitive in the aero-engine market.  Engine technology insertion is targeted to address TSFC (Thrust Specific Fuel Consumption), Propulsion System Weight Reduction, Maintenance Cost reduction, Performance Improvement, or System Reliability.  Engine technologies embody a range of innovations, including materials (e.g., ceramic matrix composite parts), architecture (e.g., optimizing thermal efficiency versus propulsive efficiency), airfoil aerodynamics, sealing (e.g., blade tip clearances), cooling (i.e., blade cooling to enable higher operating temperatures), and systems technologies (e.g., electric engine start).  In practice, however, it is airfoil aerodynamics and sealing technologies that are applied to new in-production aircraft.  The engine is a highly integrated set of systems that leaves little room for modifications post-entry into service (EIS).
Exhibit 8.12. Representative Engine "Tech Insertion" Packages

Furthermore, engine technologies rarely buy their way on individually; rather, engine OEM's create technology insertion (TI) "packages" that improve fuel burn, reduce maintenance cost, and/or improve performance (representative TI packages are illustrated in Exhibit 4-1).  If fuel burn is the competitive requirement, a minimum of 0.5 to 1.0% fuel burn improvement is necessary to justify the development and certification costs in order to be marketable to airline customers.  Integration of a suite of TRL-6 technologies into a propulsion system can cost the OEM in the ballpark of $100M per 1% fuel burn reduced, excluding any potential additional certification costs.  Lower TRL technologies can add another $100 to $150M, and require additional years in development.  These TI packages normally become the new production standard, and are sold for incorporation during normal engine maintenance activities.  As stated by a major engine OEM executive "....there is 2 to 4 year financial return requirement (for technology insertion packages).....anything that gets repaired or replaced (during normal maintenance) buys its way in....".  Another consideration, especially for lessors, is residual value.  Technology insertion is not only a short term cost/benefit analysis, but a consideration in future residual value of the aircraft and/or engine at future sale.
Traditionally, technology development generally revealed itself in mid-life upgrades to engine programs.  With the plethora of new engine development going on, technologies developed for new engines (such as LEAP-X and Trent XWB) are being migrated back to prior versions of existing engines (e.g., technology developed for the Trent 1000 and 700EP were incorporated into a TI package for the Trent 900).  While TI packages will vary from engine to engine, technologies developed and tested in recent new engine programs (e.g., GEnx, Trent 1000/XWB, geared turbofan (GTF), LEAP-X, etc.) will be incorporated into current engines.  ICF projects engine upgrade packages will continue to be developed throughout the forecast period regardless of the source of technology development. While ICF forecasted 0.2% improvement per annum, some sources indicate that there is substantial upside to this number, with Pratt and Whitney claiming an average fuel burn improvement of 0.5%-1% for the geared turbofan (Warwick, Pratt and Whitney's Geared Turbofan).

Engine Technologies Improvements (Minor PIP)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
=
=
-
=
=
=
=
=
0.2% /yr
0.2% /yr
0.1% /yr
0.2% /yr
0.2% /yr
0.2% /yr
0.2% /yr
0.2% /yr
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Technical Feasibility
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$118
$200
$115
$181
$270
$503
$681
$720

Variable Camber Trailing Edge
The idea of the variable camber trailing edge is to tailor the aerodynamics of the wing in flight to improve the performance over a range of flight conditions. Ideally aircraft would fly mostly at the nominal cruise flight condition for which the wing was designed for, but in practice, aircraft end up flying at a range of conditions dictated by operations.  The air traffic control restriction that requires flight at a constant altitude in 2,000 ft. increments is particularly limiting. The drag penalty due to this restriction over the complete cruise segment can be as high as 7%. If these restrictions were to be reduced or eliminated in the future, as planned under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)'s NextGen program, the penalties could reduce dramatically, and this technology might no longer be worthwhile.
Variable camber trailing edge technology is currently implemented in the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350. In these implementations, both ailerons and flap positions are optimized for each flight condition to minimize the drag ( (Norris, Boeing Unveils Plans for Trailing Edge Variable Camber on 787 to Reduce Drag, Save Weight)). The aileron mechanisms are similar to conventional ones, but the flap mechanisms had to be adapted to enable the required adjustments. This includes the ability of the spoilers to deflect downwards to close gaps opened when the flaps are slightly drooped. There is also the possibility of morphing the trailing edge without resorting to hinged surfaces, which we cover in the "Adaptive Morphing Trailing Edge" section.

Variable Camber Trailing Edge Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
X
+
-
-
=
+
+
+
0.0%
3.0%
0.5%
0.5%
1.8%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

                                     2015
                                     2018
                                     2020
                                     2023
                                     2028
                                     2030
Commercial Feasibility
0%
0%
2%
3%
5%
6%
Technical Feasibility
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$184
$233
$209
$228
$282
$419
$496
$611

Advanced Wingtip Devices
Wingtips devices are an effective way of increasing the lift-to-drag ratio of an aircraft. These can be winglets (single or split), or span extensions. Increasing the span or the vertical extent of the wing reduces the lift-induced drag by spreading the vorticity, weakening the adverse effect that this vorticity has on the rest of the wing. At the global level, this is expressed as a reduction in the kinetic energy associated with the vortex system. Adding wing tip devices also increases the lift, which improves field and climb performance. The penalty for adding a wing tip device is added viscous drag and weight. The degree to how much weight is added is highly dependent on how much margin there is in the structural design of the original wing. For an over-designed wing, it is possible to add wingtip devices with no structural reinforcement, but usually reinforcements are required in the rest of the wing.
The tradeoffs between extending the wing horizontally versus adding a winglet involve a careful multidisciplinary analysis. Aerodynamically, a wing horizontal extension is more effective in reducing the induced drag than an equivalent increase in the vertical extent of the wing. The fact that the equivalent horizontal extension can be made smaller for the same induced drag reduction further decreases the viscous drag penalty. However, the horizontal extension induces larger bending moments on the wing and thus leads to a heavier wing. This makes it more challenging to incorporate in a wing that has already been designed.
Given the trend to retrofit in-production aircraft with winglets, one must question why this was not done in the original design. After all, winglets are relatively mature technology. The reason has to do with the tradeoff between fuel burn and aircraft cost. Fuel burn depends on both weight and drag, but it is more sensitive to drag, while aircraft cost depends primarily on the weight and has no dependence on drag. Hence, as fuel prices increase, there is more incentive to decrease the fuel burn at the cost of a more expensive aircraft. This is a major factor when determining the optimal span and wingtip devices of an aircraft.
This trend can be seen in two of the most recent aircraft, the Boeing 787 and the Airbus 350, which exhibit significantly higher spans when compared to aircraft of the same weight. Further, the 777X is rumored to feature higher span wings, and Embraer just announced that they would extend the span of the E-175 (Caldas)
Gate code constraints play a major role in the decision of span and wingtip devices. It is no coincidence that the Airbus A350 has winglets while the Boeing 787 does not: the A350'span is just under the ICAO gate code E constraint, while the Boeing 787 is well under this constraint. An interesting note on this is that the 777X is rumored to feature folding wingtips in order to increase its span while fitting in code E gates, further reinforcing the fact that we are now willing to trade higher penalties in weight and cost for lower drag and hence lower fuel burn.
The design of wing tip extensions is still progressing, as evidenced by the novel shape of the split winglets introduced by Boeing on the 737 MAX. Raked wingtip are also becoming more common and their shape is changing, as can be seen in the evolution of the original 777-200LR/300ER tips to the shape in the 787. Thus, further gains are expected from the shaping of wingtip devices.
Advanced Wingtip Devices Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
5%
10%
14%
20%
30%
38%
Technical Feasibility
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$98
$124
$111
$121
$150
$222
$264
$325

Adaptive Trailing Edge
The motivation for this technology is exactly the same as the one for the variable camber trailing edge described previously: to tailor the wing so as to minimize the drag at the various flight conditions. Instead of relying on hinged surfaces to alter the shape of the wing, morphing changes the shape of the structure continuously by using piezoelectric materials or by internal mechanisms. The result is a smooth variation in the shape with no need for gaps that would otherwise contribute to the overall drag. On the other hand, gaps are a desirable feature in the high-lift system (slats and flaps), since they enable higher maximum lift. This technology has been tested in the Boeing 737 ecoDemonstrator (Wilsey and Stoker).
The main tradeoff to be considered when employing morphing is whether the performance improvement is worth the added weight, cost, complexity and actuation energy. Morphing technology has been progressing in all these fronts and it is expected that this trade will become favorable at some point in the next 10 years. There are two possibilities to deploy the morphing trailing edge: one could have local morphing on the trailing edge or conventional moving surfaces to augment or replace the conventional adaptive trailing edge technology, or one could replace all control surfaces with morphing. The latter would have the advantage of eliminating the drag due to gaps, and it also allows for a finer control of the spanwise distribution of the trailing edge camber, which is very limited when using a conventional adaptive trailing edge.

Adaptive Trailing Edge Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
X
+
-
-
=
+
+
+
0.0%
2.0%
0.5%
0.5%
1.3%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
0%
0%
4%
10%
15%
17%
Technical Feasibility
0%
0%
50%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$148
$188
$168
$184
$228
$338
$401
$493
Riblet Coatings
Riblets are a pattern of tiny ridges that are aligned in the direction of the flow. They have been shown to reduce the skin friction due to a turbulent boundary layer by about 6.5% for the flight regime that is typical of commercial transport aircraft. Riblets work by reducing the turbulence at the surface in the direction perpendicular to the flow, reducing the skin friction drag. Although this is a well understood way of reducing skin friction drag, the issue with the use of this technology hinges on the cost of manufacturing, the curability in service and maintenance issues. Lufthansa Technik is currently researching riblet paint coatings (Gubisch). Given the increasing value of decreasing drag, there is a chance that this technology is deployed within the next 10 years.

Riblet Coatings Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
-
-
-
-
=
+
+
+
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
0%
5%
13%
25%
35%
51%
Technical Feasibility
0%
50%
80%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$148
$188
$168
$184
$228
$338
$401
$493

Natural Laminar Flow Control - Nacelle
Skin-friction drag is one of the primary sources of drag on an aircraft, usually accounting for just over 50% of the total drag at cruise. As mentioned previously, this drag is due to the friction caused by the boundary layer. Boundary layers can be either laminar or turbulent, and the former generate less friction, and thus lower drag. Laminar boundary layers are also thinner, contributing to a decrease in pressure drag as well. Due to the combination of high speed and scale of the aircraft, the boundary layers on transport aircraft  are almost completely turbulent. It is particularly difficult to achieve a laminar boundary layer in this flow regime through passive means, especially in lifting surfaces that are swept. Although they start as laminar at the leading edges, they will quickly transition to turbulent unless the right technology is used.
Natural laminar flow (NLF) relies solely on the careful design of the aerodynamic shape so as to delay the transition of the boundary layer from laminar to turbulent as much as possible. This technology has been used in high-performance sailplanes for several decades, but the higher the speed and the longer the dimensions, the more difficult it is to achieve. Furthermore, wing sweep has an adverse effect. As a result, NLF is currently not feasible on wings of commercial transports flying at high subsonic speeds.
However, recent progress has made it possible to achieve NLF for a significant portion of engine nacelles, as is the case in the Boeing 787. NLF requires especially tight manufacturing tolerances as well as attention to the paint material and thickness. The 777X will also feature nacelles with NLF. (CITE Boeing PAS Widebody presentation).

Natural Laminar Flow Control - Nacelle Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
-
-
+
+
=
=
=
=
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
0%
0%
1%
3%
5%
6%
Technical Feasibility
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$254
$324
$289
$316
$391
$580
$688
$847
Hybrid Laminar Flow Control  -  Empennage
As mentioned above, it is possible to achieve a significant amount of NLF on nacelles. However, the boundary layer will eventually transition when the streamwise distance is long enough. To increase the extent of laminar flow beyond what is possible with the passive means of NLF, or to ensure laminar flow with an adverse shape or flight condition, it is possible to use hybrid laminar flow control (HLFC).
HLFC uses suction to delay the transition from laminar to turbulent and thus create areas with a laminar boundary layer. This technology has been tested for the 787-9 vertical tail and will represent the first commercial application of HLFC. Usually, the suction is created by mechanical means and requires a source of power. The patent filed by Boeing seems to show a system that does not require mechanical power: it sucks the boundary layer in through tiny holes in the skin to a plenum, or hollow chamber, inside the leading edge vertical tail that is then connected to an area of lower pressure elsewhere. This reduces the complexity of the system and eliminates the power requirement, making it commercially more viable.

Hybrid Laminar Flow Control - Empennage Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
-
-
-
-
=
+
+
+
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.4%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
0%
3%
6%
10%
15%
17%
Technical Feasibility
0%
80%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$254
$324
$289
$316
$391
$580
$688
$847

Hybrid Laminar Flow Control  -  Nacelle
As mentioned above, it is possible to achieve a significant extent of NLF on nacelles. However, there might be desirable to increase the extent of laminar flow even further than it is possible with passive means. Given the possible application of HLFC to the empennage of the 787-9, and as this technology matures, it is likely that this will be applied to other components of the aircraft, including nacelles. The application to wings, however, remains a very challenging proposition for the reasons that were already mentioned.

Hybrid Laminar Flow Control - Nacelle Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
-
-
-
-
=
+
+
+
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
0%
3%
6%
10%
15%
17%
Technical Feasibility
0%
80%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$219
$278
$249
$272
$337
$499
$592
$729

ECS Aerodynamic Cleanup and On-Demand ECS Scheduling
The environmental control system (ECS) of an aircraft provides air supply, thermal control and cabin pressurization for the crew and passengers. Avionics cooling, smoke detection and fire suppression are also commonly considered part of an aircraft's environmental control system. The Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 have made both aerodynamic and power-saving improvements to the ECS system (Sinnett). The inlet and outlet ducts to the system's compressor have been optimized to reduce the pressure drag. In addition, on-demand ECS scheduling now allows engines to power the system only when needed as opposed to an entire flight (Boeing Co.).

ECS Aerodynamic Cleanup and On-Demand ECS Scheduling Improvements (Minor PIP)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
8%
20%
28%
40%
60%
68%
Technical Feasibility
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$40
$46
$43
$45
$50
$68
$77
$87

Fuel Cell APU Replacement
Aircraft auxiliary power units (APUs) are small gas turbine engines used to provide electrical power, air conditioning, hydraulic power, and pneumatic power both on the ground as a backup in flight. Several companies are conducting research to enable APUs to be replaced with fuel cells. Fuel cells take advantage of a chemical reaction of some hydrogen-based compounds with air to produce electricity. While this would likely not produce a direct weight reduction benefit, fuel cell APUs are an important element to enable further development of the "more electric aircraft" architecture discussed earlier in the report, as well as reducing fuel consumption and emissions for ground operations. Fuel cell APUs would have many ancillary benefits, including production of nitrogen as a byproduct, which could be used for the fuel tank inerting system. Fuel cells also produce water as a byproduct of the chemical reaction, which would allow airlines to begin a flight with less stored water for lavatories, further reducing weight (Breit).

Fuel Cell APU Replacement Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
=
=
=
+
+
-
-
-
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
0%
0%
0%
60%
30%
36%
Technical Feasibility
0%
0%
0%
25%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$148
$188
$168
$184
$228
$338
$401
$493

Control Surface  -  Optimal Control Laws for Horizontal Stabilizer Trim
Maintaining trimmed flight efficiently requires clean, accurate, and dynamic control laws. There is room for improvement with contemporary control systems with regards to overshoot, rise time, and steady-state error. This technology complements the adaptive trailing edge technology, since if the trailing edge geometry changes, the trim settings should change at the same time.

Control Surface - Optimal Control Laws for Horizontal Stabilizer Trim Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
X
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
0.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
5%
10%
14%
20%
50%
60%
Technical Feasibility
80%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$98
$124
$111
$121
$150
$222
$264
$325

Gap Reductions & Aerodynamic Cleanup on Slats/Spoilers/Ailerons/ etc.

Hinged control surfaces such as ailerons, elevators and rudders, leave gaps on the aerodynamic surface that need to be sealed as much as possible to reduce drag. While some effort has been made to minimize this type of drag, this is an area of continuous improvement.
Spoilers and slats also incur some drag if their trailing edges are not perfectly flush with the shape of the wing. By making these trailing edges thinner, this source of drag can be reduced, as demonstrated in a recent next-generation 737 performance improvement package (Tesch, Next-Generation 737 Fuel Performace Improvement).

Gap Reductions & Aerodynamic Cleanup on Slats/Spoilers/Ailerons Improvements (Minor PIP)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
-
-
=
=
=
=
=
=
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
10%
25%
35%
50%
75%
83%
Technical Feasibility
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$40
$46
$43
$45
$50
$68
$77
$87

Reducing Profiles of Lights, Antennae, Sensors, etc.
Although the additional lights, antennae and sensors protruding from the aircraft have relatively small dimensions, they can collectively add up to a significant amount of drag. It is well known that circular cross sections (such as those used in some anti-collision lights) exhibit a drag that is ten times higher of that of a streamlines shape with the same width. Therefore, several in-production aircraft have modified these details for in-production aircraft (Tesch, Next-Generation 737 Fuel Performace Improvement), (Caldas). Although the drag reductions are modest, they are generally low cost modifications.

Reducing Profiles of Lights, Antennae, Sensors, etc. Improvements (Minor PIP)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
10%
25%
35%
50%
75%
83%
Technical Feasibility
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$8
$9
$9
$9
$10
$14
$15
$17

Aft Body Redesign for Aerodynamics
There is room for aerodynamic improvements on the aft body of many contemporary aircraft. Understandably, the majority of aerodynamic analysis and design effort targets the wings. However, with recent skyrocketing fuel prices, opportunities for drag reduction on non-lifting parts such as the fuselage have also become a focus of aircraft OEMs. This has been seen on the 737 MAX (Boeing Co.)
For in-production aircraft, it is not feasible to perform a major redesign of the aft body, but it is possible to make modifications on the existing shape. The area where the horizontal and vertical tails join the fuselage is particularly critical when it comes to interference drag, and is a good target for redesign.

Aft Body Redesign for Aerodynamics Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
-
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
9%
20%
28%
40%
60%
68%
Technical Feasibility
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$184
$233
$209
$228
$282
$419
$496
$611

Composites  -  Current State, Increased Application
Decreasing aircraft weight without compromising drag is a sure way of reducing aircraft fuel burn. Composite materials have been known for decades and have been used in military airplanes for a long time, and exhibit strength to weight ratios higher than those of metals. However, composites have only recently been used in the primary structures of commercial transport aircraft (in the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350). In spite of the knowledge gained over the years in the military applications, the current generation of composite structures in these new commercial aircraft has much room for improvement. For both airplanes, the predicted weight advantages of composites have not been fully realized and there have been growing pains in the development of these structures. This is due in part to complications in the fastening of the various parts (especially when interfacing composite parts with metal ones) and also due to the use of conservative design procedures to mitigate the risks in using a new material. Design and manufacturing techniques that enable a more detailed tailoring of the composite ply angles have the potential to reduce the weight further. There is room for improvement when it comes to reducing the cost of manufacturing composites. In addition to the weight reduction, composites a much less susceptible to corrosion and should reduce the maintenance cost in the long run. Finally, composites enable more freedom in the manufacture shape, which could improve the aerodynamics of wings.
There are typically three main techniques to fabricate composite parts that are utilized to produce various part types:
Automated layup:
Automated layup could include Automated Tape Laying (ATL), in which CNC robotic compaction delivery head to deposit composite prepreg reinforcements from a loading station onto a mold surface, or Automated Fiber Placement (AFP), in which the machine applies "tow preg" material in strips instead of a single sheet.
Hand layup:
Hand layup fabrication involves manual placement of composite reinforcements in or on a tool, which usually involves placing prepregs into a mold, subsequently placing a vacuum bag on the tool, and placing the material and tool into a high-temperature oven or autoclave to cure.Out of autoclave:
Out of autoclave composite fabrication could include Resin Transfer Molding, in which liquid matrix resin is infused into a dry-fiber "preform" and the resulting part is molded to near-net shaped with very good surface quality, or Resin Film Infusion, in which stacks of composite fabrics mixed with B-staged resin are stacked onto a tool and readied for vacuum bagging and curing.

Composites - Current State, Increased Application Improvements (Large Incremental Update)
Metric Value Benefit & Percentage Improvement by Aircraft Category
Small BGA
Large BGA
Turbo-prop
Regional Jet
Single Aisle
Small Twin
Large Twin
Large Quad
-
-
-
-
=
+
+
+
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
1.3%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Commercial & Technical Feasibility by Forecast Year

2015
2018
2020
2023
2028
2030
Commercial Feasibility
2%
5%
7%
10%
15%
17%
Technical Feasibility
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Estimated Total NRE ($M) by Aircraft Category
$219
$278
$249
$272
$337
$499
$592
$729

Technology Readiness Level Definitions
This appendix elaborates the definitions of the technology readiness level (TRL) of technologies that were mentioned in prior sections of the report. The technology readiness level goes from a scale of 1-9, in which basic principles and theories are defined as low TRL level, while flight proven technologies and systems are defined as high TRL level
                          Technology Readiness Level
                                  Definition
                                       1
                    Basic principles observed and reported
                                       2
               Technology concept and/or application formulated
                                       3
Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept
                                       4
       Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment
                                       5
        Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment
                                       6
System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment (ground or space)
                                       7
             System prototype demonstration in a space environment
                                       8
Actual system completed and "flight qualified" through test and demonstration (ground or space)
                                       9
    Actual system "flight proven" through successful mission operations

Introduction to Technology Response Database
The Technology Response Database (or Technology Response Microsoft Excel Spreadsheets) provides the basis for the future aircraft fleet (for aircraft that the international CO2 standards apply to). Specifically, the entry into service (EIS) years, end of production (EOP) years, metric value (MV) continuous improvement forecast, and the long-term MV improvement estimates out to 2040 are used in the fleet evolution modeling that the EPA developed separate from this report.
In the EPA analysis, the aircraft in the Technology Response Database are first organized into growth and replacement market segments. The same market segments are mapped to aircraft in the baseline CO2 emissions inventory for the year 2015 that the EPA uses for its analysis. Growth and retirement rates mapped to the operations from the 2015 baseline inventory determine the market demand for each growth and replacement market segment. The aircraft available to assume the market demand for a specific year are determined by the EIS and EOP years. The EIS years for new aircraft that are part of a specific transition pair (e.g., A319-1 and A319-NEO) are adjusted to enter the fleet after the EOP year of the older aircraft in the same pair (e.g. A319-NEO EIS changes from 2017 to 2020). If aircraft going out of production are not part of a specified transition pair, the other aircraft in the same market segment will assume the market demand for that year (or years).
The MV continuous improvement forecast is implemented as an adjustment factor to the fuel burn (calculated using PIANO). Because we start with a 2015 base year and the ICF MV forecast starts at 2010, we must scale the MV continuous improvement values to the base year we use in our analysis, and thus, the adjustment factor, η, for a given year is
ηY=MVYMV(2015),   Y>2015
where MV(Y) is the metric value from the ICF continuous improvement metric value forecast for year Y and MV(2015) is the metric value in the base year.
If all the aircraft go out of production within a specific market segment for a year after 2015, then the long-term percent improvement provided by ICF is added to this adjustment factor for the aircraft remaining in the market segment. Long-term replacement aircraft beyond the project aircraft defined for transition pairs are considered generic. At least one long-term replacement aircraft is selected in each market segment to represent the general fleet level efficiency within that market segment in our fleet evolution model. Long-term replacements for aircraft that end production before the final forecast year (2040) are modeled with a MV percent improvement estimate in the Technology Response Database. These long-term improvements are added to the MV continuous improvement forecast of the aircraft that is going out of production. For example, A319-NEO has an EOP year of 2030. The long-term replacement for A319-NEO is a clean sheet aircraft which is estimated to have a MV improvement of about 20 percent. This 20 percent improvement is added to the MV improvement forecast for A319-NEO as a step-change to all subsequent years after the aircraft's EOP year (2030). The adjustment factor then becomes
                            ηY=MVYMV2015*100-x100
where x is the long-term percent improvement provided by ICF.
For the analysis of stringency scenarios, the adjustment factor is updated further to include the technology response. The only aircraft impacted by a stringency scenario is the A380-8 for scenario 3. This scenario 3 has an effective date for in-production aircraft of 2023, and the EOP year for A380-8 is 2025. Thus, for the years 2023 to 2025, the adjustment factor for A380-8 is
ηY=MVYMV2015*100-x100-tr100
where x is the long-term percent improvement as before and tr is the percent MV improvement after the accelerated technology insertions. For the A380-8, the MV improvement from the technology response is 2.63 percent.


[Federal Register: February 6, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 25)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Page 6838-6840]
[DOCID:fr06fe08-3]

=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

Federal Aviation Administration

14 CFR Part 39

[Docket No. FAA-2007-27824; Directorate Identifier 2003-NE-12-AD;
Amendment 39-15364; AD 2006-11-05R2]
RIN 2120-AA64

Airworthiness Directives; Rolls-Royce plc RB211 Series Turbofan
Engines

AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of
Transportation (DOT).

ACTION: Final rule; request for comments.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: The FAA is revising an existing airworthiness directive (AD)
for Rolls-Royce plc (RR) RB211-22B series, RB211-524B, -524C2, -524D4,
-524G2, -524G3, and -524H series, and RB211-535C and -535E series
turbofan engines with high pressure compressor (HPC) stage 3 disc
assemblies, part numbers (P/Ns) LK46210, LK58278, LK67634, LK76036,
UL11706, UL15358, UL22577, UL22578, and UL24738 installed. That AD
currently requires removing from service certain disc assemblies before
they reach their full published life if not modified with anticorrosion
protection. This AD requires the same actions but relaxes the removal
compliance time for certain disc assemblies that have a record of
detailed inspection. This AD results from the FAA allowing certain
affected disc assemblies that have a record of a detailed inspection,
to remain in service for a longer period than the previous AD allowed.
We are issuing this AD to relax the compliance time for disc assemblies
manufactured both ``before and after 1990'' by providing an option to
track the disc life based on a record of a detailed inspection rather
than by its entry into service date, while continuing to prevent
corrosion-induced uncontained disc assembly failure, resulting in
damage to the airplane.

DATES: Effective February 21, 2008. The Director of the Federal
Register previously approved the incorporation by reference of certain
publications listed in the regulations as of February 24, 2004 (69 FR
2661, January 20, 2004).
    We must receive any comments on this AD by April 7, 2008.

ADDRESSES: Use one of the following addresses to comment on this AD.
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: Go to http://www.regulations.gov
 and follow the instructions for sending your

comments electronically.
     Mail: U.S. Docket Management Facility, Department of
Transportation, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE., West Building Ground Floor,
Room W12-140, Washington, DC 20590-0001.
     Hand Delivery: Deliver to Mail address above between 9
a.m. and 5 p.m., Monday through Friday, except Federal holidays.
     Fax:<PHONE_NUMBER>.
    Contact Rolls-Royce plc, PO Box 31, Derby, England, DE248BJ;
telephone: 011-44-1332-242424; fax: 011-44-1332-245-418, for the
service information identified in this AD.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ian Dargin, Aerospace Engineer, Engine
Certification Office, FAA, Engine and Propeller Directorate, 12 New
England Executive Park; Burlington, MA 01803; e-mail:
<EMAIL_ADDRESS>telephone<PHONE_NUMBER>; fax<PHONE_NUMBER>.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On May 15, 2006, the FAA issued AD 2006-11-
05, Amendment 39-14609 (71 FR 29586, May 23, 2006). We also issued a
correction to that AD on September 26, 2006 (71 FR 58254, October 3,
2006) and a revision to that AD on April 9, 2007 (72 FR 18862, April
16, 2007). That AD revision requires removing from service certain disc
assemblies before they reach their full published life if not modified
with anticorrosion protection. That AD was the result of the
manufacturer's reassessment of the corrosion risk on HPC stage 3 disc
assemblies that have not yet been modified with sufficient application
of anticorrosion protection. That condition, if not corrected, could
result in corrosion-induced uncontained disc assembly failure,
resulting in damage to the airplane.

Actions Since AD 2006-11-05R1 Was Issued

    Since AD 2006-11-05R1 was issued, we discovered that the population
of affected disc assemblies identified in that AD was incorrect. That
AD allowed affected disc assemblies that entered into service ``before
1990'' that have a record of a detailed inspection, to remain in
service for a longer period than the previous AD, AD 2006-11-05,
allowed. This revised AD allows disc assemblies manufactured both
``before and after 1990'' that have a record of a detailed inspection,
to remain in service for 17 years from last overhaul inspection date.
But the discs are not to exceed the manufacturer's published cyclic
limit in the time limits section of the manual. We are issuing this AD
to relax the compliance time for certain disc assemblies by providing
an option to track the disk life based on a record of a detailed
inspection rather than by its entry into service date, while continuing
to prevent corrosion-induced uncontained disc assembly failure,
resulting in damage to the airplane.

Relevant Service Information

    We have reviewed and approved the technical contents of RR MSB No.
RB.211-72-9661, Revision 5, dated December 22, 2006. That MSB allows
affected disc assemblies and that have a record of detailed inspection:
     To remain in service for 17 years from last overhaul
inspection date; but
     Not to exceed the manufacturer's published cyclic limit in
the time limits section of the manual.

We do not incorporate by reference this MSB, but we list it in the
Related Information section.

Bilateral Airworthiness Agreement

    This engine model is manufactured in the United Kingdom (UK), and
is type certificated for operation in the United States under the
provisions of section 21.29 of the Federal Aviation Regulations (14 CFR
21.29) and the applicable bilateral airworthiness agreement. Under this
bilateral airworthiness agreement, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA),
which is the airworthiness authority for the UK, has kept the FAA
informed of the situation described above. We have examined the
findings of the CAA, reviewed all available information, and determined
that AD action is necessary for products of this type design that are
certificated for operation in the United States.

FAA's Determination and Requirements of This AD

    The unsafe condition described previously is likely to exist or
develop on other RR RB211-22B series, RB211-524B, -524C2, -524D4, -
524G2, -524G3, and -524H series, and RB211-535C and -535E series
turbofan engines of the same type design. We are issuing this AD to
relax the compliance time for certain disc assemblies by providing an
option to track the disk life based on a record of a detailed
inspection rather than by its entry into service date, while continuing
to prevent corrosion-induced uncontained disc assembly failure,
resulting in damage to the airplane. This AD requires the following for
affected HPC stage 3 rotor disc assemblies:

     Removing affected disc assemblies from service; and
     Re-machining, inspecting, and applying anticorrosion
protection; and
     Re-marking, and returning disc assemblies into service;
and
     Allowing affected disc assemblies that have a record of a
detailed inspection, to remain in service for 17 years from last
overhaul inspection date but not to exceed the manufacturer's published
cyclic limit in the time limits section of the manual.

FAA's Determination of the Effective Date

    Since an unsafe condition exists that requires the immediate
adoption of this AD, we have found that notice and opportunity for
public comment before issuing this AD are impracticable. Good cause
exists for making this amendment effective in less than 30 days.

Comments Invited

    This AD is a final rule that involves requirements affecting flight
safety and was not preceded by notice and an opportunity for public
comment. However, we invite you to send us any written relevant data,
views, or arguments regarding this AD. Send your comments to an address
listed under ADDRESSES. Include ``AD Docket No. FAA-2007-27824;
Directorate Identifier 2003-NE-12-AD'' in the subject line of your
comments. We specifically invite comments on the overall regulatory,
economic, environmental, and energy aspects of the rule that might
suggest a need to modify it.
    We will post all comments we receive, without change, to http://www.regulations.gov
, including any personal information you provide. We

will also post a report summarizing each substantive verbal contact
with FAA personnel concerning this AD. Using the search function of the
Web site, anyone can find and read the comments in any of our dockets,
including the name of the individual who sent the comment (or signed
the comment on behalf of an association, business, labor union, etc).
You may review the DOT's complete Privacy Act Statement in the Federal
Register published on April 11, 2000 (65 FR 19477-78).

Examining the AD Docket

    You may examine the AD docket on the Internet at http://www.regulations.gov
; or in person at the Docket Operations office

between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., Monday through Friday, except Federal
holidays. The AD docket contains this AD, the regulatory evaluation,
any comments received, and other information. The street address for
the Docket Operations office (telephone<PHONE_NUMBER>) is the same as
the Mail address provided in the ADDRESSES section. Comments will be
available in the AD docket shortly after receipt.

Authority for This Rulemaking

    Title 49 of the United States Code specifies the FAA's authority to
issue rules on aviation safety. Subtitle I, Section 106, describes the
authority of the FAA Administrator. Subtitle VII, Aviation Programs,
describes in more detail the scope of the Agency's authority.
    We are issuing this rulemaking under the authority described in
Subtitle VII, Part A, Subpart III, Section 44701, ``General
requirements.'' Under that section, Congress charges the FAA with
promoting safe flight of civil aircraft in air commerce by prescribing
regulations for practices, methods, and procedures the Administrator
finds necessary for safety in air commerce. This regulation is within
the scope of that authority because it addresses an unsafe condition
that is likely to exist or develop on products identified in this
rulemaking action.

Regulatory Findings

    We have determined that this AD will not have federalism
implications under Executive Order 13132. This AD will not have a
substantial direct effect on the States, on the relationship between
the national Government and the States, or on the distribution of power
and responsibilities among the various levels of government.
    For the reasons discussed above, I certify that this AD:
    1. Is not a ``significant regulatory action'' under Executive Order
12866;
    2. Is not a ``significant rule'' under the DOT Regulatory Policies
and Procedures (44 FR 11034, February 26, 1979); and
    3. Will not have a significant economic impact, positive or
negative, on a substantial number of small entities under the criteria
of the Regulatory Flexibility Act.
    We prepared a summary of the costs to comply with this AD and
placed it in the AD Docket. You may get a copy of this summary at the
address listed under ADDRESSES.

List of Subjects in 14 CFR Part 39

    Air transportation, Aircraft, Aviation safety, Incorporation by
reference, Safety.

Adoption of the Amendment

0
Under the authority delegated to me by the Administrator, the Federal
Aviation Administration amends part 39 of the Federal Aviation
Regulations (14 CFR part 39) as follows:

PART 39--AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES

0
1. The authority citation for part 39 continues to read as follows:

    Authority:  49 U.S.C. 106(g), 40113, 44701.

Sec.  39.13  [Amended]

0
2. The FAA amends Sec.  39.13 by removing Amendment 39-15026 (72 FR
18862, April 16, 2007) and by adding a new airworthiness directive,
Amendment 39-15364, to read as follows:

2006-11-05R2 Rolls-Royce plc: Amendment 39-15364. Docket No. FAA-
2007-27824; Directorate Identifier 2003-NE-12-AD.

Effective Date

    (a) This airworthiness directive (AD) becomes effective February
21, 2008.

Affected ADs

    (b) This AD revises AD 2006-11-05R1, Amendment 39-15026.

Applicability

    (c) This AD applies to Rolls-Royce plc (RR) RB211-22B series,
RB211-524B, -524C2, -524D4, -524G2, -524G3, and -524H series, and
RB211-535C and -535E series turbofan engines with high pressure
compressor (HPC) stage 3 disc assemblies, part numbers (P/Ns)
LK46210, LK58278, LK67634, LK76036, UL11706, UL15358, UL22577,
UL22578, and UL24738 installed. These engines are installed on, but
not limited to, Boeing 747, Boeing 757, Boeing 767, Lockheed L-1011,
and Tupolev Tu204 series airplanes.

Unsafe Condition

    (d) This AD results from the FAA allowing certain affected disc
assemblies that have a record of a detailed inspection, to remain in
service for a longer period than the previous AD allowed. We are
issuing this AD to relax the compliance time for disc assemblies
manufactured both `` before and after 1990'' by providing an option
to track the disc life based on a record of a detailed inspection
rather than by its entry into service date, while continuing to
prevent corrosion-induced uncontained disc assembly failure,
resulting in damage to the airplane.

Compliance

    (e) You are responsible for having the actions required by this
AD performed within the compliance times specified unless the
actions have already been done.

Removal of HPC Stage 3 Disc Assemblies

    (f) Remove from service affected HPC stage 3 disc assemblies
identified in the following Table 1, using one of the following
criteria:

                                 Table 1.--Affected HPC Stage 3 Disc Assemblies
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                Rework band for
                                                                                cyclic life
                                                             Rework band for                     accumulated on
                                                               cyclic life     Rework band for   disc assemblies
                                                             accumulated on      cyclic life      P/Ns LK76036,
                                                             disc assemblies   accumulated on       UL11706,
                       Engine model                         P/Ns LK46210 and  disc assembly P/      UL15358,
                                                             LK58278 (pre RR   N LK67634 (pre       UL22577,
                                                            Service Bulletin  RR SB No. RB.211-   UL22578, and
                                                            (SB) No. RB.211-      72-5420)       UL24738 (pre RR
                                                                72-5420)                        SB No. RB.211-72-
                                                                                9434)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-22B series...............................................       4,000-6,200      7,000-10,000     11,500-14,000
-535E4 series.............................................               N/A               N/A      9,000-15,000
-524B-02, B-B-02, B3-02, and B4 series, Pre and Post             4,000-6,000       7,000-9,000     11,500-14,000
 accomplishment of SB No. 72-7730.........................
-524B2 and C2 series, Pre SB No. 72-7730..................       4,000-6,000       7,000-9,000     11,500-14,000
-524B2-B-19 and C2-B-19 series, SB No. 72-7730............       4,000-6,000       7,000-9,000      8,500-11,000
-524D4 series, Pre SB No. 72-7730.........................       4,000-6,000       7,000-9,000     11,500-14,000
-524D4-B series, SB No. 72-7730...........................       4,000-6,000       7,000-9,000      8,500-11,000
-524G2, G3, H, and H2 series..............................       4,000-6,000       7,000-9,000      8,500-11,000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (1) For disc assemblies that entered into service before 1990,
remove disc assembly and rework as specified in paragraph (g)(2) of
this AD, on or before January 4, 2007, but not to exceed the upper
cyclic limit in Table 1 of this AD before rework. Disc assemblies
reworked may not exceed the manufacturer's published cyclic limit in
the time limits section of the manual.
    (2) For disc assemblies that entered into service in 1990 or
later, remove disc assembly within the cyclic life rework bands in
Table 1 of this AD, or within 17 years after the date of the disc
assembly entering into service, whichever is sooner, but not to
exceed the upper cyclic limit of Table 1 of this AD before rework.
Disc assemblies reworked may not exceed the manufacturer's published
cyclic limit in the time limits section of the manual.
    (3) For disc assemblies that when new, were modified with an
application of anticorrosion protection and re-marked to P/N LK76036
(not previously machined) as specified by part 1 of the original
issue of RR SB No. RB.211-72-5420, dated April 20, 1979, remove
RB211-22B series disc assemblies before accumulating 10,000 cycles-
in-service (CIS), and remove RB211-524 series disc assemblies before
accumulating 9,000 CIS.
    (4) If the disc assembly date of entry into service cannot be
determined, the date of disc assembly manufacture may be obtained
from RR and used instead.
    (5) Disc assemblies in RB211-535C series operation are
unaffected by the interim rework cyclic band limits in Table 1 of
this AD, but must meet the calendar life requirements of either
paragraph (f)(1) or (f)(2) of this AD, as applicable.

Optional Rework of HPC Stage 3 Disc Assemblies

    (g) Rework HPC stage 3 disc assemblies that were removed in
paragraph (f) of this AD as follows:
    (1) For disc assemblies that when new, were modified with an
application of anticorrosion protection and re-marked to P/N LK76036
(not previously machined) as specified by Part 1 of the original
issue of RR SB RB.211-72-5420, dated April 20, 1979, rework disc
assemblies and re-mark to either P/N LK76034 or P/N LK78814 using
paragraph 2.B. of the Accomplishment Instructions of RR SB No.
RB.211-72-5420, Revision 4, dated February 29, 1980. This rework
constitutes terminating action to the removal requirements in
paragraph (f) of this AD.
    (2) For all other disc assemblies, rework using Paragraph 3.B.
of the Accomplishment Instructions of RR SB No. RB.211-72-9434,
Revision 4, dated January 12, 2000. This rework constitutes
terminating action to the removal requirements in paragraph (f) of
this AD.
    (3) If rework is done on disc assemblies that are removed before
the disc assembly reaches the lower life of the cyclic life rework
band in Table 1 of this AD, artificial aging of the disc assembly to
the lower life of the rework band, at time of rework, is required.
    (4) Disc assemblies that have a record of detailed inspection,
regardless of the date of entry into service, are allowed to remain
in service for 17 years from last overhaul inspection date but not
to exceed the manufacturer's published cyclic limit in the time
limits section of the manual.

Alternative Methods of Compliance

    (h) The Manager, Engine Certification Office, has the authority
to approve alternative methods of compliance for this AD if
requested using the procedures found in 14 CFR 39.19.

Related Information

    (i) Civil Aviation Authority AD 004-01-94, dated January 4,
2002, and RR Mandatory Service Bulletin No. RB.211-72-9661, Revision
5, dated December 22, 2006, pertain to the subject of this AD.

Material Incorporated by Reference

    (j) You must use Rolls-Royce plc Service Bulletin No. RB.211-72-
5420, Revision 4, dated February 29, 1980, and Rolls-Royce plc
Service Bulletin No. RB.211-72-9434, Revision 4, dated January 12,
2000, to perform the rework required by this AD. The Director of the
Federal Register previously approved the incorporation by reference
of these service bulletins in accordance with 5 U.S.C. 552(a) and 1
CFR part 51, as of February 24, 2004 (69 FR 2661, January 20, 2004).
You can get copies from Rolls-Royce plc, PO Box 31, Derby, England,
DE248BJ; telephone: 011-44-1332-242424; fax: 011-44-1332-245-418.
You can review copies at the FAA, New England Region, 12 New England
Executive Park, Burlington, MA; or at the National Archives and
Records Administration (NARA). For information on the availability
of this material at NARA, call<PHONE_NUMBER>, or go to: http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/cfr/ibr-locations.html
.

    (k) Contact Ian Dargin, Aerospace Engineer, Engine Certification
Office, FAA, Engine and Propeller Directorate, 12 New England
Executive Park; Burlington, MA 01803; e-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
telephone<PHONE_NUMBER>; fax<PHONE_NUMBER>, for more information
about this AD.

    Issued in Burlington, Massachusetts, on January 25, 2008.
Peter A. White,
Assistant Manager, Engine and Propeller Directorate, Aircraft
Certification Service.
 [FR Doc. E8-2028 Filed 2-5-08; 8:45 am]

BILLING CODE 4910-13-P