Control Efficiency2028%=100x 1-Pf2028-1xFn+1-Ri12+1-1-Ri12xFnPf2028
Eq. 4-2

Here, the existing source emissions factor (Fe) is set to 1.0, 2028 (future year) minus 2016 (base year) is 12, and new source emission factor (Fn) is the ratio of the NSPS emission factor to the existing emission factor.  Table 4-15 shows the values for Retirement rate and new source emission factors (Fn) for new sources with respect to each NSPS regulation and other conditions within. For the nonpt sector, the RICE NSPS control program was applied when estimating year 2023 and 2028 emissions for the 2016v1 modeling platform.  Further information about the application of NSPS controls can be found in Section 4 of the Additional Updates to Emissions Inventories for the Version 6.3, 2011 Emissions Modeling Platform for the Year 2023 technical support document (https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-11/documents/2011v6.3_2023en_update_emismod_tsd_oct2017.pdf).

Table 4-15. Assumed retirement rates and new source emission factor ratios for NSPS rules
NSPS Rule
Sector(s)
Retirement Rate years (%/year)
Pollutant Impacted
Applied where?
New Source Emission Factor (Fn)
Oil and Gas

np_oilgas, pt_oilgas
No assumption
VOC
Storage Tanks: 70.3% reduction in growth-only (>1.0)
0.297

Gas Well Completions: 95% control (regardless)
0.05

Pneumatic controllers, not high-bleed >6scfm or low-bleed: 77% reduction in growth-only (>1.0)
0.23

Pneumatic controllers, high-bleed >6scfm or low-bleed: 100% reduction in growth-only (>1.0)
0.00

Compressor Seals: 79.9% reduction in growth-only (>1.0)
0.201

Fugitive Emissions: 60% Valves, flanges, connections, pumps, open-ended lines, and other
0.40

Pneumatic Pumps: 71.3%; Oil and Gas
0.287
RICE
np_oilgas, pt_oilgas, nonpt, ptnonipm
40, (2.5%)
NOX
Lean burn: PA, all other states
0.25, 0.606

Rich Burn: PA, all other states
0.1, 0.069

Combined (average) LB/RB: PA, other states
0.175, 0.338

CO
Lean burn: PA, all other states
1.0 (n/a), 0.889

Rich Burn: PA, all other states
0.15, 0.25

Combined (average) LB/RB: PA, other states
0.575, 0.569

VOC
Lean burn: PA, all other states
0.125, n/a

Rich Burn: PA, all other states
0.1, n/a

Combined (average) LB/RB: PA, other states
0.1125, n/a
Gas Turbines
pt_oilgas, ptnonipm
45 (2.2%)
NOX
California and NOX SIP Call states
0.595

All other states
0.238
Process Heaters
pt_oilgas, ptnonipm
30 (3.3%)
NOX
Nationally to Process Heater SCCs
0.41

 Oil and Gas NSPS (np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)
For oil and gas NSPS controls, except for gas well completions (a 95 percent control), the assumption of no equipment retirements through year 2028 dictates that NSPS controls are applied to the growth component only of any PROJECTION factors.  For example, if a growth factor is 1.5 for storage tanks (indicating a 50 percent increase activity), then, using Table 4-15, the 70.3 percent VOC NSPS control to this new growth will result in a 23.4 percent control: 100 *(70.3 * (1.5 -1) / 1.5); this yields an "effective" growth rate (combined PROJECTION and CONTROL) of 1.1485, or a 70.3 percent reduction from 1.5 to 1.0.  The impacts of all non-drilling completion VOC NSPS controls are therefore greater where growth in oil and gas production is assumed highest.  Conversely, for oil and gas basins with assumed negative growth in activity/production, VOC NSPS controls will be limited to well completions only.  These reductions are year-specific because projection factors for these sources are year-specific.    Table 4-16 (np_oilgas) and Table 4-18 (pt_oilgas) list the SCCs where Oil and Gas NSPS controls were applied; note controls are applied to production and exploration-related SCCs.  Table 4-17 (np_oilgas) and Table 4-19 (pt_oilgas) shows the reduction in VOC emissions after the application of the Oil and Gas NSPS CONTROL packet for both future years 2023 and 2028.
Table 4-16. Non-point (np_oilgas) SCCs in 2016v1 modeling platform where Oil and Gas NSPS controls applied
                                      SCC
                                   SRC_TYPE
OILGAS NSPS CATEGORY
TOOL OR STATE SCC
SRC CAT TYPE
SCCDESC
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
1. Storage Tanks
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Crude Petroleum; Oil Well Tanks - Flashing & Standing/Working/Breathing
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
3. Pnuematic controllers: not high or low bleed
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Crude Petroleum; Oil Well Pneumatic Devices
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
5. Fugitives
STATE
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Oil Production; Fugitives: All Processes
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Oil Production; Fugitives: Connectors
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Oil Production; Fugitives: Flanges
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Oil Production; Fugitives: Open Ended Lines
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Oil Production; Fugitives:  Valves
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
1. Storage Tanks
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Storage Tanks: Condensate
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
3. Pnuematic controllers: not high or low bleed
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Gas Well Pneumatic Devices
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
6. Pneumatic Pumps
STATE
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Gas Well Pneumatic Pumps
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Fugitives: Connectors
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Fugitives: Flanges
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Fugitives: Open Ended Lines
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Fugitives:  Valves
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
5. Fugitives
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Fugitives:  Other
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
5. Fugitives
STATE
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Fugitives: All Processes
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
2. Well Completions
STATE
EXPLORATION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Gas Well Venting - Initial Completions
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
1. Storage Tanks
STATE
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Natural Gas Liquids; Gas Well Water Tank Losses
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
6. Pneumatic Pumps
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Oil Exploration; Oil Well Pneumatic Pumps
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                      OIL
2. Well Completions
TOOL
EXPLORATION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Oil Exploration; Oil Well Completion: All Processes
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
6. Pneumatic Pumps
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Exploration; Gas Well Pneumatic Pumps
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
2. Well Completions
TOOL
EXPLORATION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Exploration; Gas Well Completion: All Processes
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
1. Storage Tanks
STATE
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production - Unconventional; Storage Tanks: Condensate
<PHONE_NUMBER>
                                     NGAS
2. Well Completions
STATE
EXPLORATION
Gas Well Completion: All Processes Unconventional

Table 4-17. Emissions reductions for np_oilgas sector due to application of Oil and Gas NSPS
year
poll
2016v1
2016
pre-CoST
emissions
emissions
change from 2016
% change
                                                                           2023
VOC
                                                                        2817303
                                                                        2881217
                                                                        -863524
                                                                         -30.0%
                                                                           2028
VOC
                                                                        2817303
                                                                        2881217
                                                                       -1077514
                                                                         -37.4%

Table 4-18. Point source SCCs in pt_oilgas sector where Oil and Gas NSPS controls were applied.
SCC
                                 FUEL PRODUCED
                             OILGAS NSPS CATEGORY
SCCDESC
                                                                       31000101
                                      Oil
                              2. Well Completions
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Crude Oil Production; Well Completion
                                                                       31000130
                                      Oil
                              4. Compressor Seals
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Crude Oil Production; Fugitives: Compressor Seals
                                                                       31000133
                                      Oil
                               1. Storage Tanks
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Crude Oil Production; Storage Tank
                                                                       31000151
                                      Oil
                  3. Pnuematic controllers: high or low bleed
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Crude Oil Production; Pneumatic Controllers, Low Bleed
                                                                       31000152
                                      Oil
                  3. Pnuematic controllers: high or low bleed
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Crude Oil Production; Pneumatic Controllers High Bleed >6 scfh
                                                                       31000207
                                      Gas
                                 5. Fugitives
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Production; Valves: Fugitive Emissions
                                                                       31000220
                                      Gas
                                 5. Fugitives
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Production; All Equipt Leak Fugitives (Valves, Flanges, Connections, Seals, Drains
                                                                       31000222
                                      Gas
                              2. Well Completions
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Production; Well Completions
                                                                       31000225
                                      Gas
                              4. Compressor Seals
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Production; Compressor Seals
                                                                       31000233
                                      Gas
                  3. Pnuematic controllers: high or low bleed
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Production; Pneumatic Controllers, Low Bleed
                                                                       31000309
                                      Gas
                              4. Compressor Seals
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Processing; Compressor Seals
                                                                       31000324
                                      Gas
                  3. Pnuematic controllers: high or low bleed
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Processing; Pneumatic Controllers Low Bleed
                                                                       31000325
                                      Gas
                  3. Pnuematic controllers: high or low bleed
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Processing; Pneumatic Controllers, High Bleed >6 scfh
                                                                       31088811
                                     Both
                                 5. Fugitives
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Fugitive Emissions; Fugitive Emissions

Table 4-19. VOC reductions (tons/year) for the pt_oilgas sector after application of the Oil and Gas NSPS CONTROL packet for both future years 2023 and 2028.
Year
Pollutant
2016v1
Emissions Reductions
% change
                                                                           2023
VOC
                                                                        129,253
                                                                         -2,523
                                                                          -2.0%
                                                                           2028
VOC
                                                                        129,253
                                                                         -2,808
                                                                          -2.2%

 RICE NSPS (nonpt, ptnonipm, np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)

For RICE NSPS controls, the EPA emission requirements for stationary engines differ according to whether the engine is new or existing, whether the engine is located at an area source or major source, and whether the engine is a compression ignition or a spark ignition engine.  Spark ignition engines are further subdivided by power cycle, two-stroke versus four-stroke, and whether the engine is rich burn or lean burn.  We applied NSPS reduction for lean burn, rich burn and "combined" engines using Eq. 4-2 and information listed in Table 4-15. Table 4-20, Table 4-21 and Table 4-25 list the SCCs where RICE NSPS controls were applied for the 2016v1 platform. Table 4-22, Table 4-23, Table 4-24 and Table 4-26 show the reductions in emissions in the nonpoint, ptnonipm, and nonpoint oil and gas sectors after the application of the RICE NSPS CONTROL packet for both future years 2023 and 2028. Note that for nonpoint oil and gas, VOC reductions were only appropriate in the state of Pennsylvania.

Table 4-20. SCCs and Engine Type in 2016v1 modeling platform where RICE NSPS controls applied for nonpt and ptnonipm sectors.
SCC
Lean, Rich, or Combined
SCCDESC
                                                                       20200202
Combined
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Reciprocating
                                                                       20200253
Rich
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; 4-cycle Rich Burn
                                                                       20200254
Lean
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; 4-cycle Lean Burn
                                                                       20200256
Lean
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; 4-cycle Clean Burn
                                                                       20300201
Combined
Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Reciprocating
<PHONE_NUMBER>
Combined
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Natural Gas; Total: Boilers and IC Engines
<PHONE_NUMBER>
Combined
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Natural Gas; All IC Engine Types
<PHONE_NUMBER>
Combined
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Total: Boilers and IC Engines

Table 4-21. Non-point Oil and Gas SCCs in 2016v1 modeling platform where RICE NSPS controls applied
SCC
Lean, Rich, or Combined category
SRC_TYPE
TOOL OR STATE SCC
SRC CAT TYPE
SCCDESC
2310000220
Combined
BOTH
TOOL
EXPLORATION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; All Processes; Drill Rigs
2310000660
Combined
BOTH
TOOL
EXPLORATION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; All Processes; Hydraulic Fracturing Engines
2310020600
Combined
NGAS
STATE
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Natural Gas; Compressor Engines
2310021202
Lean
NGAS
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 HP
2310021251
Lean
NGAS
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Lateral Compressors 4 Cycle Lean Burn
2310021302
Rich
NGAS
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 HP
2310021351
Rich
NGAS
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; On-Shore Gas Production; Lateral Compressors 4 Cycle Rich Burn
2310023202
Lean
CBM
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas; CBM Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 HP
2310023251
Lean
CBM
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas; Lateral Compressors 4 Cycle Lean Burn
2310023302
Rich
CBM
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas; CBM Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 HP
2310023351
Rich
CBM
TOOL
PRODUCTION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas; Lateral Compressors 4 Cycle Rich Burn
2310400220
Combined
BOTH
STATE
EXPLORATION
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; All Processes - Unconventional; Drill Rigs

Table 4-22. Nonpoint Emissions reductions after the application of the RICE NSPS
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reductions (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
CO
                                                                      2,688,250
                                                                        -16,982
                                                                          -0.6%
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        718,766
                                                                        -23,704
                                                                          -3.3%
                                                                           2028
CO
                                                                      2,688,250
                                                                        -23,145
                                                                          -0.9%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        718,766
                                                                        -33,621
                                                                          -4.7%

Table 4-23. Ptnonipm Emissions reductions after the application of the RICE NSPS
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reductions (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
CO
                                                                      1,446,353
                                                                         -2,756
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                         -3,400
                                                                          -0.4%
                                                                           2023
VOC
                                                                        774,289
                                                                             -2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
CO
                                                                      1,446,353
                                                                         -3,295
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                         -4,232
                                                                          -0.4%
                                                                           2028
VOC
                                                                        774,289
                                                                             -3
                                                                           0.0%

Table 4-24. Oil and Gas Emissions reductions for np_oilgas sector due to application of RICE NSPS
year
poll
2016v1
2016
pre-CoST
 emissions
emissions
reduction
% change
                                                                           2023
CO
                                                                         762706
                                                                         767414
                                                                        -106005
                                                                         -13.8%
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                         574133
                                                                         598738
                                                                         -93806
                                                                         -15.7%
                                                                           2023
VOC
                                                                        2817303
                                                                        2881217
                                                                           -525
                                                                         -0.02%
                                                                           2028
CO
                                                                         762706
                                                                         767414
                                                                        -145622
                                                                         -19.0%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                         574133
                                                                         598738
                                                                        -134144
                                                                         -22.4%
                                                                           2028
VOC
                                                                        2817303
                                                                        2881217
                                                                           -785
                                                                         -0.03%

Table 4-25. Point source SCCs in pt_oilgas sector where RICE NSPS controls applied.
SCC
Lean, Rich, or Combined
SCCDESC
                                                                       20200202
Combined
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Reciprocating
                                                                       20200253
Rich
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas;4-cycle Rich Burn
                                                                       20200254
Lean
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas;4-cycle Lean Burn
                                                                       20200256
Combined
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas;4-cycle Clean Burn
                                                                       20300201
Combined
Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Reciprocating
                                                                       31000203
Combined
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Natural Gas Production; Compressors (See also 310003-12 and -13)

Table 4-26. Emissions reductions (tons/year) in pt_oilgas sector after the application of the RICE NSPS CONTROL packet for future years 2023 and 2028.
Year
Pollutant
2016v1
Emissions Reductions
% change
                                                                           2023
CO
                                                                        177,690
                                                                        -20,258
                                                                         -11.4%
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        379,866
                                                                        -53,694
                                                                         -14.1%
                                                                           2023
VOC
                                                                        129,253
                                                                           -436
                                                                          -0.3%
                                                                           2028
CO
                                                                        177,690
                                                                        -26,095
                                                                         -14.7%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        379,866
                                                                        -70,659
                                                                         -18.6%
                                                                           2028
VOC
                                                                        129,253
                                                                           -512
                                                                          -0.4%

 Fuel Sulfur Rules (nonpt, ptnonipm)
Fuel sulfur rules, based on web searching and the 2011 emissions modeling notice of data availability (NODA) comments, are currently limited to the following states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The fuel limits for these states are incremental starting after year 2012, but are fully implemented by July 1, 2018, in all of these states. The control packet representing these controls was updated by MARAMA for version 1 platform.

Summaries of the sulfur rules by state, with emissions reductions are provided in Table 4-27 and Table 4-28. These tables reflect the impacts of the MARAMA packet only, as these reductions are not estimated in non-MARAMA states. Most of these reductions occur in the nonpt sector; a small amount of reductions occurs in the ptnonipm sector, and a negligible amount of reductions occur in the pt_oilgas sector.

Table 4-27. Summary of fuel sulfur rule impacts on nonpoint SO2 emissions for 2023 and 2028
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reductions (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
SO2
                                                                        140,469
                                                                        -28,137
                                                                         -20.0%
                                                                           2028
SO2
                                                                        140,469
                                                                        -24,200
                                                                         -17.2%

Table 4-28. Summary of fuel sulfur rule impacts on ptnonipm SO2 emissions for 2023 and 2028
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reductions (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
SO2
                                                                        658,204
                                                                         -1,183
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2028
SO2
                                                                        658,204
                                                                         -1,241
                                                                          -0.2%

 Natural Gas Turbines NOx NSPS (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)
Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls were generated based on examination of emission limits for stationary combustion turbines that are not in the power sector.  In 2006, the EPA promulgated standards of performance for new stationary combustion turbines in 40 CFR part 60, subpart KKKK.  The standards reflect changes in NOx emission control technologies and turbine design since standards for these units were originally promulgated in 40 CFR part 60, subpart GG.  The 2006 NSPSs affecting NOx and SO2 were established at levels that bring the emission limits up-to-date with the performance of current combustion turbines.  Stationary combustion turbines were also regulated by the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call, which required affected gas turbines to reduce their NOx emissions by 60 percent.  Table 4-29 compares the 2006 NSPS emission limits with the NOx Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) regulations in selected states within the NOx SIP Call region.  The map showing the states and partial-states in the NOx SIP Call Program can be found at: http://www3.epa.gov/airmarkets/progress/reports/program_basics.html. The state NOx RACT regulations summary (Pechan, 2001) is from a year 2001 analysis, so some states may have updated their rules since that time.

Table 4-29. Stationary gas turbines NSPS analysis and resulting emission rates used to compute controls
NOx Emission Limits for New Stationary Combustion Turbines
Firing Natural Gas
<50 MMBTU/hr
50-850 MMBTU/hr
>850 MMBTU/hr

Federal NSPS
100
25
15
ppm

State RACT Regulations
5-100 MMBTU/hr
100-250 MMBTU/hr
>250 MMBTU/hr

Connecticut
225
75
75
ppm
Delaware
42
42
42
ppm
Massachusetts
65*
65
65
ppm
New Jersey
50*
50
50
ppm
New York
50
50
50
ppm
New Hampshire
55
55
55
ppm
* Only applies to 25-100 MMBTU/hr
Notes: The above state RACT table is from a 2001 analysis. The current NY State regulations have the same emission limits.
New source emission rate (Fn)
NOX ratio (Fn)
Control (%)
NOx SIP Call states plus CA
= 25 / 42 =
0.595
40.5%
Other states
= 25 / 105 =
0.238
76.2%

For control factor development, the existing source emission ratio was set to 1.0 for combustion turbines. The new source emission ratio for the NOx SIP Call states and California is the ratio of state NOx emission limit to the Federal NSPS.  A complicating factor in the above is the lack of size information in the stationary source SCCs.  Plus, the size classifications in the NSPS do not match the size differentiation used in state air emission regulations.  We accepted a simplifying assumption that most industrial applications of combustion turbines are in the 100-250 MMBtu/hr size range and computed the new source emission rates as the NSPS emission limit for 50-850 MMBtu/hr units divided by the state emission limits.  We used a conservative new source emission ratio by using the lowest state emission limit of 42 ppmv (Delaware).  This yields a new source emission ratio of 25/42, or 0.595 (40.5 percent reduction) for states with existing combustion turbine emission limits.  States without existing turbine NOx limits would have a lower new source emission ratio -the uncontrolled emission rate (105 ppmv via AP-42) divided into 25 ppmv = 0.238 (76.2 percent reduction).  This control was then plugged into Eq. 4-2 as a function of the year-specific projection factor.  Also, Natural Gas Turbines control factors supplied by MARAMA were used within the MARAMA region.

Table 4-30 and Table 4-32 list the point source SCCs where Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls were applied for the 2016v1 platform. Table 4-31 and Table 4-33 show the reduction in NOx emissions after the application of the Natural Gas Turbines NSPS CONTROL packet for both future years 2023 and 2028. The values in Table 4-31 and Table 4-33 include emissions both inside and outside the MARAMA region.

Table 4-30. Ptnonipm SCCs in 2016v1 modeling platform where Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls applied
SCC
SCC description
20200201
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine
20200203
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine: Cogeneration
20200209
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine: Exhaust
20200701
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Process Gas; Turbine
20200714
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Process Gas; Turbine: Exhaust
20300202
Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Turbine
20300203
Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Turbine: Cogeneration

Table 4-31. Ptnonipm emissions reductions after the application of the Natural Gas Turbines NSPS
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reduction (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                         -2,531
                                                                          -0.3%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                         -3,346
                                                                          -0.4%
Table 4-32. Point source SCCs in pt_oilgas sector where Natural Gas Turbines NSPS control applied.
SCC
SCC description
20200201
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine
20200209
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine: Exhaust
20300202
Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Turbine
20300209
Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Turbine: Exhaust
20200203
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine: Cogeneration
20200714
Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Process Gas; Turbine: Exhaust
20300203
Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Turbine: Cogeneration
Table 4-33. Emissions reductions (tons/year) for pt_oilgas after the application of the Natural Gas Turbines NSPS CONTROL packet for future years 2023 and 2028.
Year
Pollutant
2016v1
Emissions Reduction
% change
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        379,866
                                                                         -8,079
                                                                          -2.1%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        379,866
                                                                        -11,282
                                                                          -3.0%

 Process Heaters NOx NSPS (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)
Process heaters are used throughout refineries and chemical plants to raise the temperature of feed materials to meet reaction or distillation requirements.  Fuels are typically residual oil, distillate oil, refinery gas, or natural gas.  In some sense, process heaters can be considered as emission control devices because they can be used to control process streams by recovering the fuel value while destroying the VOC.  The criteria pollutants of most concern for process heaters are NOx and SO2.
In 2016, it is assumed that process heaters have not been subject to regional control programs like the NOx SIP Call, so most of the emission controls put in-place at refineries and chemical plants have resulted from RACT regulations that were implemented as part of SIPs to achieve ozone NAAQS in specific areas, and refinery consent decrees. The boiler/process heater NSPS established NOx emission limits for new and modified process heaters. These emission limits are displayed in Table 4-41.

Table 4-34. Process Heaters NSPS analysis and 2016v1 new emission rates used to estimate controls
NOX emission rate Existing (Fe)
Fraction at this rate
Average
PPMV
Natural Draft
Forced Draft

80
0.4
0

100
0.4
0.5

150
0.15
0.35

200
0.05
0.1

240
0
0.05

Cumulative, weighted: Fe
104.5
134.5
119.5
NSPS Standard
40
60

New Source NOX ratio (Fn)
0.383
0.446
0.414
NSPS Control (%)
61.7
55.4
58.6

For computations, the existing source emission ratio (Fe) was set to 1.0. The computed (average) NOx emission factor ratio for new sources (Fn) is 0.41 (58.6 percent control). The retirement rate is the inverse of the expected unit lifetime.  There is limited information in the literature about process heater lifetimes. This information was reviewed at the time that the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) developed its initial regional haze program emission projections, and energy technology models used a 20-year lifetime for most refinery equipment.  However, it was noted that in practice, heaters would probably have a lifetime that was on the order of 50 percent above that estimate.  Therefore, a 30-year lifetime was used to estimate the effects of process heater growth and retirement.  This yields a 3.3 percent retirement rate. This control was then plugged into Eq. 4-2 as a function of the year-specific projection factor. Table 4-35 and Table 4-37 list the point source SCCs where Process Heaters NSPS controls were applied for the 2016v1 platform.  Table 4-36 and Table 4-38 show the reduction in NOx emissions after the application of the Process Heaters NSPS CONTROL packet for both future years 2023 and 2028.

Table 4-35. Ptnonipm SCCs in 2016v1 modeling platform where Process Heaters NSPS controls applied.
scc
sccdesc
30190003
Industrial Processes; Chemical Manufacturing; Fuel Fired Equipment; Process Heater: Natural Gas
30190004
Industrial Processes; Chemical Manufacturing; Fuel Fired Equipment; Process Heater: Process Gas
30590002
Industrial Processes; Mineral Products; Fuel Fired Equipment; Residual Oil: Process Heaters
30590003
Industrial Processes; Mineral Products; Fuel Fired Equipment; Natural Gas: Process Heaters
30600101
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Oil-fired
30600102
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Gas-fired
30600103
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Oil
30600104
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Gas-fired
30600105
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Natural Gas-fired
30600106
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Process Gas-fired
30600107
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG)
30600199
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Other Not Classified
30990003
Industrial Processes; Fabricated Metal Products; Fuel Fired Equipment; Natural Gas: Process Heaters
31000401
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Distillate Oil (No. 2)
31000402
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Residual Oil
31000403
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Crude Oil
31000404
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Natural Gas
31000405
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Process Gas
31000406
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Propane/Butane
31000413
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Crude Oil: Steam Generators
31000414
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Natural Gas: Steam Generators
31000415
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Process Gas: Steam Generators
39900501
Industrial Processes; Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries; Process Heater/Furnace; Distillate Oil
39900601
Industrial Processes; Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries; Process Heater/Furnace; Natural Gas
39990003
Industrial Processes; Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries; Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries; Natural Gas: Process Heaters

Table 4-36. Ptnonipm emissions reductions after the application of the Process Heaters NSPS
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reductions (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                         -9,511
                                                                          -1.0%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                        -12,692
                                                                          -1.3%
Table 4-37. Point source SCCs in pt_oilgas sector where Process Heaters NSPS controls were applied
SCC
SCC Description
30190003
Industrial Processes; Chemical Manufacturing; Fuel Fired Equipment; Process Heater: Natural Gas
30600102
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Gas-fired
30600104
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Gas-fired
30600105
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Natural Gas-fired
30600106
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Process Gas-fired
30600199
Industrial Processes; Petroleum Industry; Process Heaters; Other Not Classified
30990003
Industrial Processes; Fabricated Metal Products; Fuel Fired Equipment; Natural Gas: Process Heaters
31000401
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Distillate Oil (No. 2)
31000402
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Residual Oil
31000403
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Crude Oil
31000404
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Natural Gas
31000405
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Process Gas
31000413
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Crude Oil: Steam Generators
31000414
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Natural Gas: Steam Generators
31000415
Industrial Processes; Oil and Gas Production; Process Heaters; Process Gas: Steam Generators
39900501
Industrial Processes; Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries; Process Heater/Furnace; Distillate Oil
39900601
Industrial Processes; Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries; Process Heater/Furnace; Natural Gas
Table 4-38.  NOx emissions reductions (tons/year) in pt_oilgas sector after the application of the Process Heaters NSPS CONTROL packet for futures years 2023 and 2028.
Year
Poll
2016v1
Emissions Reductions
% change
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        379,866
                                                                         -1,698
                                                                          -0.4%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        379,866
                                                                         -2,376
                                                                          -0.6%

 CISWI (ptnonipm)
On March 21, 2011, the EPA promulgated the revised NSPS and emission guidelines for Commercial and Industrial Solid Waste Incineration (CISWI) units. This was a response to the voluntary remand that was granted in 2001 and the vacatur and remand of the CISWI definition rule in 2007. In addition, the standards redevelopment included the 5-year technology review of the new source performance standards and emission guidelines required under Section 129 of the Clean Air Act. The history of the CISWI implementation is documented here: https://www.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/commercial-and-industrial-solid-waste-incineration-units-ciswi-new. Baseline and CISWI rule impacts associated with the CISWI rule are documented here: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0119-2559. The EPA mapped the units from the CISWI baseline and controlled dataset to the 2014 NEI inventory and computed percent reductions such that our future year emissions matched the CISWI controlled dataset values. Table 4-39 summarizes the total impact of CISWI controls for 2023 and 2028. Note that this rule applies to specific units in 11 states: Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Texas for CO, SO2, and NOX.

Table 4-39. Summary of CISWI rule impacts on ptnonipm emissions for 2023 and 2028
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reductions (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
CO
                                                                      1,446,353
                                                                         -2,745
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                         -1,711
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2023
SO2
                                                                        658,204
                                                                         -1,807
                                                                          -0.3%
                                                                           2028
CO
                                                                      1,446,353
                                                                         -2,937
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                         -1,722
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2028
SO2
                                                                        658,204
                                                                         -1,933
                                                                          -0.3%

 Petroleum Refineries NSPS Subpart JA (ptnonipm)
On June 24, 2008, EPA issued final amendments to the Standards of Performance for Petroleum Refineries. This action also promulgated separate standards of performance for new, modified, or reconstructed process units after May 14, 2007 at petroleum refineries. The final standards for new process units included emissions limitations and work practice standards for fluid catalytic cracking units, fluid coking units, delayed coking units, fuel gas combustion devices, and sulfur recovery plants. In 2012, EPA finalized the rule after some amendments and technical corrections. See https://www.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/petroleum-refineries-new-source-performance-standards-nsps-40-cfr for more details on NSPS  -  40 CFR 60 Subpart Ja. These NSPS controls were applied to petroleum refineries in the ptnonipm sector for years 2023 and 2028. Units impacted by this rule were identified in the 2016v1 inventory. For delayed coking units, an 84% control efficiency was applied and for storage tanks, a 49% control efficiency was applied. The analysis of applicable units was completed prior to the 2014v2 NEI and the 2016v1 platform. Therefore, to ensure that a control was not applied to a unit that was already in compliance with this rule, we compared emissions from the 2016v1 inventory and the 2011en inventory (the time period of the original analysis). Any unit that demonstrated a 55+% reduction in VOC emissions from 2011en to 2016v1 would be considered compliant with the rule and therefore not subject to this control. Table 4-40 below reflects the impacts of these NSPS controls on the ptnonipm sector. This control is applied to all pollutants; Table 4-40 summarizes reductions for the years 2023 and 2028 for NOX, SO2, and VOC.

Table 4-40. Summary of NSPS Subpart JA rule impacts on ptnonipm emissions for 2023 and 2028
year
poll
2016v1 (tons)
emissions reductions (tons)
% change
                                                                           2023
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                             -1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2023
SO2
                                                                        658,204
                                                                             -3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2023
VOC
                                                                        774,289
                                                                         -5,269
                                                                          -0.7%
                                                                           2028
NOX
                                                                        952,181
                                                                             -1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
SO2
                                                                        658,204
                                                                             -3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
VOC
                                                                        774,289
                                                                         -5,233
                                                                          -0.7%

 State-Specific Controls (ptnonipm)
ICI Boilers  -  North Carolina
The Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters MACT Rule, hereafter simply referred to as the "Boiler MACT," was promulgated on January 31, 2013, based on reconsideration. Background information on the Boiler MACT can be found at: https://www.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/industrial-commercial-and-institutional-boilers-and-process-heaters. The Boiler MACT promulgates national emission standards for the control of HAPs (NESHAP) for new and existing industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) boilers and process heaters at major sources of HAPs. The expected cobenefit for CAPs at these facilities is significant and greatest for SO2 with lesser impacts for direct PM, CO and VOC. This control addresses only the expected cobenefits to existing ICI boilers in the State of North Carolina. All other states previously considered for this rule are assumed to be in compliance with the rule and therefore the emissions need no further estimated controls applied. The control factors applied here were provided by North Carolina.

Arizona Regional Haze Controls
U.S. EPA Region 9 provided regional haze FIP controls for a few industrial facilities. Information on these controls are available in the docket for this rulemaking at https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EPA-R09-OAR-2013-0588-0072. These non-EGU controls have implementation dates between September 2016 and December 2018.

Consent Decrees
MARAMA provided a list of controls relating to consent decrees to be applied to specific units within the MARAMA region. This list includes sources in North Carolina that were subject to controls in the beta version of this emission modeling platform. Outside of the MARAMA region, controls related to consent decrees were applied to several sources, including the LaFarge facility in Michigan (8127411), for which NOX emissions must be reduced by 18.633% to meet the decree; and the Cabot facilities in Louisiana and Texas, which had been subject to consent decree controls in the 2011 platforms, and 2016 emissions values suggest controls have not yet taken effect. Other facilities subject to a consent decree were determined to already be in compliance based on 2016 emissions values.

State Comments
A comment from the State of Illinois that was included in the 2011 platform was carried over for the 2016v1 platform. The data accounts for three coal boilers being replaced by two gas boilers not in the inventory and results in a large SO2 reduction.

The State of Ohio reported that the P. H. Glatfelter Company facility (8131111) has switched fuels after 2016, and so controls related to the fuel switch were applied. This is a new control for version 1 platform.

Comments relating to Regional Haze in the 2011 platform were analyzed for potential use in the 2016v1 platform. For those comments that are still applicable, control efficiencies were recalculated so that 2016v1 post-control emissions (without any projections) would equal post-control emissions for the 2011 platform (without any projections). This is to ensure that controls which may already be applied are accounted for. Some facilities' emissions were already less than the 2011 post-control value in 2016v1 and therefore did not need further controls here. For facility 3982311 (Eastman Chemical in Tennessee), one unit has a control efficiency of 90 in 2016v1 and the others have no control; a replacement control of 91.675 was applied for this facility so that the unit with control efficiency=90 is not double controlled.

Wisconsin provided alternate emissions to use as input to 2023v1/2028v1 CoST. Wisconsin provided new emissions totals for three facilities and requested that these new totals be used as the basis for 2023v1 and 2028v1 projections, instead of 2016v1. The provided emissions were facility-level only, therefore 2016v1 emissions were scaled at these facilities to match the new provided totals.

The District of Columbia provided a control packet to be applied to three ptnonipm facilities in all 2016v1 platform projections.

 Projections Computed Outside of CoST
Projections for some sectors are not calculated using CoST.  These are discussed in this section.
 Nonroad Mobile Equipment Sources (nonroad)
Outside California and Texas, the MOVES2014b model was run separately for each future year, including 2023 and 2028, resulting in a separate inventory for each year. The fuels used are specific to each future year, but the meteorological data represented the year 2016. The 2023 and 2028 nonroad emission factors account for regulations such the Emissions Standards for New Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines, Equipment, and Vessels (https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-control-emissions-nonroad-spark-ignition), Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder (https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-control-emissions-air-pollution-locomotive), and Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4 (https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-control-emissions-air-pollution-nonroad-diesel). The resulting future year inventories were processed into the format needed by SMOKE in the same way as the base year emissions. Inside California and Texas, CARB and TCEQ provided separate datasets for each future year. Because the CARB and TCEQ inventories already reflect future year emissions, no additional work related to projections was required except to include them as SMOKE input files.
 Onroad Mobile Sources (onroad)
The MOVES2014b model was run separately for each future year, including 2023 and 2028, resulting in separate emission factors for each year. The 2023 and 2028 onroad emission factors account for changes in activity data and the impact of on-the-books rules that are implemented into MOVES2014b.  These include regulations such as the Light Duty Vehicle GHG Rule for Model-Year 2017-2025, and the Tier 3 Motor Vehicle Emission and Fuel Standards Rule (https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-control-air-pollution-motor-vehicles-tier-3).  Local inspection and maintenance (I/M) and other onroad mobile programs are included such as California LEVIII, the National Low Emissions Vehicle (LEV) and Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) LEV regulations (https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-control-air-pollution-new-motor-vehicles-and-2), local fuel programs, and Stage II refueling control programs. Regulations finalized after the year 2014 are not included, such as the Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Final Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 and the Final Rule for Phase 2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles.

The fuels used are specific to each future year, the age distributions were projected to the future year, and the meteorological data represented the year 2016. The resulting emission factors were combined with future year activity data using SMOKE-MOVES run in a similar way as the base year.  The development of the future year activity data is described later in this section. CARB provided separate emissions datasets for each future year. The CARB-provided emissions were adjusted to match the temporal and spatial patterns of the SMOKE-MOVES based emissions. Additional information about the development of future year onroad emission and on how SMOKE was run to develop the emissions can be found in the 2016v1 platform onroad sector specification sheet.

Where state and local agencies did not provide future year activity data, future year VMT were computed based on annual VMT data from the AEO2019 reference case for VMT by fuel and vehicle type. Specifically, the following two AEO2019 tables were used:

 Light Duty (LD): Light-Duty VMT by Technology Type (table #51: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=51-AEO2019&cases=ref2019&sourcekey=0)
 Heavy Duty (HD): Freight Transportation Energy Use (table #58: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=58-AEO2019&cases=ref2019&sourcekey=0)

Total VMT for each MOVES fuel and vehicle grouping was calculated for the years 2016, 2020, 2023, and 2028 based on the AEO-to-MOVES mappings above. From these totals, 2016-2023 and 2016-2028 VMT trends were calculated for each fuel and vehicle grouping. Those trends became the national VMT projection factors. The AEO2019 tables include data starting from the year 2017. Since we were projecting from 2016, 2016-to-2017 projection factors were calculated from AEO2018, and then multiplied by 2017-to-future projection factors from AEO2019. MOVES fuel and vehicle types were mapped to AEO fuel and vehicle classes.  The resulting 2016-to-future year national VMT projection factors used for the 2016v1 platform are provided in Table 4-41.  These factors were adjusted to prepare county-specific projection factors for light duty vehicles based on human population data available from the BenMAP model by county for the years 2017, 2023, and 2028 (https://www.woodsandpoole.com/ circa 2015).  The purpose of this adjustment based on population changes helps account for areas of the country that are growing more than others.  Where agencies provided future year VMT data, those data were used.
Table 4-41. Factors used to Project 2016 VMT to 2023 and 2028
SCC6
description
                                  2023 factor
                                  2028 factor
220111
LD gas
                                     5.99%
                                     6.99%
220121
LD gas
                                     5.99%
                                     6.99%
220131
LD gas
                                     5.99%
                                     6.99%
220132
LD gas
                                     5.99%
                                     6.99%
220142
Buses gas
                                     8.43%
                                    19.86%
220143
Buses gas
                                     8.43%
                                    19.86%
220151
MHD gas
                                     8.43%
                                    19.86%
220152
MHD gas
                                     8.43%
                                    19.86%
220153
MHD gas
                                     8.43%
                                    19.86%
220154
MHD gas
                                     8.43%
                                    19.86%
220161
HHD gas
                                    -51.15%
                                    -64.99%
220221
LD diesel
                                    86.79%
                                    177.3%
220231
LD diesel
                                    86.79%
                                    177.3%
220232
LD diesel
                                    86.79%
                                    177.3%
220241
Buses diesel
                                    14.30%
                                    21.23%
220242
Buses diesel
                                    14.30%
                                    21.23%
220243
Buses diesel
                                    14.30%
                                    21.23%
220251
MHD diesel
                                    14.30%
                                    21.23%
220252
MHD diesel
                                    14.30%
                                    21.23%
220253
MHD diesel
                                    14.30%
                                    21.23%
220254
MHD diesel
                                    14.30%
                                    21.23%
220261
HHD diesel
                                    12.91%
                                    17.85%
220262
HHD diesel
                                    12.91%
                                    17.85%
220342
Buses CNG
                                    65.57%
                                    88.00%
220521
LD E-85
                                    -0.70%
                                    -10.03%
220531
LD E-85
                                    -0.70%
                                    -10.03%
220532
LD E-85
                                    -0.70%
                                    -10.03%
220921
LD Electric
                                     1258%
                                     2695%
220931
LD Electric
                                     1258%
                                     2695%
220932
LD Electric
                                     1258%
                                     2695%

Future year VPOP data were projected using calculations of VMT/VPOP ratios for each county, fuel, and vehicle type from the 2016 VMT and VPOP data. Those ratios were then applied to the future year projected VMT to estimate future year VPOP. Future year VPOP data submitted by state and local agencies were then incorporated into the VPOP projections. Future year VPOP data were provided by state and local agencies in NH, NJ, NC, WI, Pima County, AZ, and Clark County, NV. All of these submissions were the same as for the 2016beta platform except for New Jersey, which provided a new submission for the 2016v1 platform. For Pima County, just like with the VMT, future year VPOP was only provided for 2022 (used directly for 2023) and not for 2028. Where necessary, VPOP was split to SCC (full FF10) using SCC distributions from the EPA projection.  Both VMT and VPOP were redistributed between the LD car and truck vehicle types (21/31/32) based on splits from the EPA projection, and used the EPA projection for buses in North Carolina and state-provided VPOP for all other vehicles in North Carolina.

Hoteling hours were projected to the future years by calculating 2016 inventory HOTELING/VMT ratios for each county for combination long-haul trucks on restricted roads only.  Those ratios were then applied to the future year projected VMT for combination long-haul trucks on restricted roads to calculate future year hoteling. Some counties had hoteling activity but did not have combination long-haul truck restricted road VMT in 2016; in those counties, the national AEO2018-based projection factor for diesel combination trucks was used to project 2016 hoteling to the future years. This procedure gives county-total hoteling for the future years. Each future year also has a distinct APU percentage based on MOVES input data that was used to split county total hoteling to each SCC: 22.6% APU for 2023, and 25.9% APU for 2028.
 Locomotives (rail)
Rail emissions were computed for future years based on future year fuel use values for 2020, 2023, and 2028 were based on the Energy Information Administration's 2018 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) freight rail energy use growth rate projections for 2016 thru 2028 (see Table 4-42) and emission factors based on historic emissions trends that reflect the rate of market penetration of new locomotive engines.

A correction factor was added to adjust the AEO projected fuel use for 2017 to match the actual 2017 R-1 fuel use data.  The additive effect of this correction factor was carried forward for each subsequent year from 2018 thru 2028. The modified AEO growth rates were used to calculate future year Class I line-haul fuel use totals for 2020, 2023, and 2028. As shown in Table 4-42 the future year fuel use values ranged between 3.2 and 3.4 billion gallons, which matched up well with the long-term line-haul fuel use trend between 2005 and 2018. The emission factors for NOx, PM10 and VOC were derived from trend lines based on historic line-haul emission factors from the period of 2007 through 2017.
Table 4-42. Class I Line-haul Fuel Projections based on 2018 AEO Data
                                     Year
                              AEO Freight Factor
                               Projection Factor
                              Corrected AEO Fuel
                                 Raw AEO Fuel
                                     2016
                                       1
                                       1
                                 3,203,595,133
                                 3,203,595,133
                                     2017
                                    1.0212
                                    1.0346
                                 3,314,384,605
                                 3,271,393,249
                                     2018
                                    1.0177
                                    1.0311
                                 3,303,215,591
                                 3,260,224,235
                                     2019
                                    1.0092
                                    1.0226
                                 3,275,939,538
                                 3,232,948,182
                                     2020
                                    1.0128
                                    1.0262
                                 3,287,479,935
                                 3,244,488,580
                                     2021
                                    1.0100
                                    1.0235
                                 3,278,759,301
                                 3,235,767,945
                                     2022
                                    0.9955
                                    1.0090
                                 3,232,267,591
                                 3,189,276,235
                                     2023
                                    0.9969
                                    1.0103
                                 3,236,531,624
                                 3,193,540,268
                                     2024
                                    1.0221
                                    1.0355
                                 3,317,383,183
                                 3,274,391,827
                                     2025
                                    1.0355
                                    1.0489
                                 3,360,367,382
                                 3,317,376,026
                                     2026
                                    1.0410
                                    1.0544
                                 3,377,946,201
                                 3,334,954,845
                                     2027
                                    1.0419
                                    1.0553
                                 3,380,697,189
                                 3,337,705,833
                                     2028
                                    1.0356
                                    1.0490
                                 3,360,491,175
                                 3,317,499,820

The projected fuel use data was combined with the emission factor estimates to create future year link-level emission inventories based on the MGT traffic density values contained in the FRA's 2016 shapefile. The link-level data created for 2020, 2023, and 2028 was aggregated to create county, state, and national emissions estimates (see Table 4-43) which were then converted into FF10 format for use in the 2016v1 emissions platform.
Table 4-43. Class I Line-haul Historic and Future Year Projected Emissions
                                   Inventory
                                      CO
                                      HC
                                      NH3
                                      NOx
                                     PM10
                                     PM2.5
                                      SO2
                                2007 (2008 NEI)
                                    110,969
                                    37,941
                                      347
                                    754,433
                                    25,477
                                    23,439
                                     7,836
                                   2014 NEI
                                    107,995
                                    29,264
                                      338
                                    609,295
                                    19,675
                                    18,101
                                      381
                                    2016 v1
                                    94,020
                                    21,727
                                      294
                                    489,562
                                    14,538
                                    14,102
                                      332
                                   2017 NEI
                                    97,272
                                    21,560
                                      304
                                    492,385
                                    14,411
                                    13,979
                                      343
                                2020 Projected
                                    96,482
                                    19,133
                                      302
                                    448,924
                                    12,800
                                    12,415
                                      340
                                2023 Projected
                                    94,987
                                    16,550
                                      297
                                    404,329
                                    11,059
                                    10,728
                                      335
                                2028 Projected
                                    98,625
                                    13,847
                                      309
                                    361,914
                                     9,236
                                     8,959
                                      348
                                 2016 vs 2028
                                     4.90%
                                    -36.27%
                                     4.90%
                                    -26.07%
                                    -36.47%
                                    -36.47%
                                     4.90%

Other rail emissions were projected based on AEO growth rates as shown in Table 4-44. See the 2016v1 rail specification sheet for additional information on rail projections.
 Table 4-44. AEO growth rates for rail sub-groups
                                    Sector
                                     2016
                                     2020
                                     2023
                                     2028
                                  Rail Yards
                                      1.0
                                    0.97513
                                   0.947802
                                   0.952483
                            Class II/III Railroads
                                      1.0
                                    0.97513
                                   0.947802
                                   0.952483
                              Commuter/Passenger
                                      1.0
                                   1.033858
                                   1.071348
                                   1.136023

 Sources Outside of the United States (onroad_can, onroad_mex, othpt, ptfire_othna, othar, othafdust, othptdust)
This section discusses the projection of emissions from Canada and Mexico and other areas outside of the U.S. Information about the base inventory used for these projections or the the naming conventions can be found in Section 2.7.  Emissions for Mexico are based on the Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Mexico, 2008 projected to years 2023 and 2028 (ERG, 2014a). Additional details for these sectors can be found in the 2016v1 platform specification sheets.
 Canadian fugitive dust sources (othafdust, othptdust)
Canadian area source dust (othafdust)
ECCC provided area stationary source inventories for the years 2023 and 2028. Unlike in their 2015 inventories in which area dust emissions were grouped into a separate file, these sources were not provided as separate inventories for the future years, and so othafdust sector emissions were extracted from that single area source inventory. As with 2015, the future year dust emissions are pre-adjusted, so future year othafdust follows the same emissions processing methodology as the base year. To make the future year emissions consistent with the base year, the same 2015->2010 adjustment factors for construction dust that were applied to the base year inventory were also applied to the future year projected inventories.
Canadian point source dust (othptdust)

ECCC had provided their own future year projections of the harvest and tillage point ag dust inventories, but those inventories exhibited the same waffle pattern as 2015, so we instead decided to project the improved 2015 inventories. ECCC separately provided data from which future year projections could be derived in a file called "Projected_CAN2015_2023_2028.xlsx", which includes emissions data for 2015, 2023, and 2028 by pollutant, province, ECCC sub-class code, and other source categories. This data was used to calculate 2015-to-2023 and 2015-to2028 projection factors, which were then applied to the improved 2015 Canada point ag dust inventories to create projections for 2023 and 2028. Emissions values from these in-house projections were found to be close in magnitude to ECCC's own projections. Projection factors were applied by province, sub-class code, and pollutant. The ECCC projection workbook included additional source information which provides more detail than do the subclass codes, but that more detailed information could not be easily mapped to the inventory, and the level of detail offered by the sub-class codes was considered sufficient for projection purposes. For the othptdust sector, there are separate sub-class codes for each of the two inventories (harvest and tillage).
 Point Sources in Canada and Mexico (othpt)
Canada point airport and agriculture emissions
Future year airport and agriculture emission inventories from ECCC were not available in time for inclusion in the platform. Instead, ECCC provided data from which future year projections of these inventories could be derived. This data, provided by ECCC in a file called "Projected_CAN2015_2023_2028.xlsx", includes emissions data for 2015, 2023, and 2028 by pollutant, province, ECCC sub-class code, and other source categories. This data was used to calculate 2015-to-2023 and 2015-to-2028 projection factors, which were then applied to the improved 2015 point airport and ag inventories to create projections of Canadian emissions for 2023 and 2028. Projection factors were applied by province, sub-class code, and pollutant. The ECCC projection workbook included additional source information which provides more detail than do the subclass codes, but that more detailed information could not be easily mapped to the inventory, and the level of detail offered by the sub-class codes was considered sufficient for projection purposes. For the ag inventories, the sub-class codes are similar in detail to SCCs: fertilizer has a single sub-class code, and animal emissions categories (broilers, dairy, horses, sheep, etc) each have a separate sub-class code. Sub-class codes for airport emissions are similar in detail to SCCs, with separate codes for piston and turbine emissions from military aircraft, commercial aircraft, and general aviation.
Other Canada point sources
Future year projections for stationary point sources (excluding ag) were provided by ECCC for 2023 and 2028. ECCC provided emissions inventories for upstream oil and gas sources (UOG) and for all other stationary point sources, including electric power generation. These inventories were generally used as-is, with the following exceptions. The 2015 non-UOG stationary point source inventories included monthly emissions as well as annual emissions. In the future year projected inventories provided by ECCC, monthly emissions were included not included for EPG (electric power generation) sources, but were for the rest of the non-UOG sources. For consistency with the base year, monthly emissions were added to the EPG sources in the inventory, using facility-specific monthly temporal profiles derived from the 2015 inventory. For new facilities that were not in 2015, monthly emissions were left blank in the inventory, and monthly temporalization is applied SMOKE using profiles assigned by SCC. For 2015, ECCC provided a pre-speciated point source inventory including species for the CB6 mechanism. For the future years, ECCC did not provide a pre-speciated inventory, but advised that speciation for the future years is unchanged from the base year. Because the baseline VOC emissions are different in the future year projections, it was necessary to develop a prespeciated CB6 inventory for the future years which is consistent with the 2015 inventory but is based on future year projections of VOC. For this, speciation profiles for each facility-SCC in 2015 were calculated using the 2015 CB6 inventory, and these profiles were applied to future year VOC to create a CB6 future year inventory. Speciation profiles were also developed by SCC from 2015, for application to future year facility-SCC combinations which could not be matched to 2015. The future year inventories also include SCCs which were not in the 2015 inventory all; for those sources, we apply standard speciation profiles in SMOKE. To prevent double counting of VOC speciated within SMOKE with pre-speciated VOC, the point source inventory has VOC emissions represented as VOC_INV for sources that are in the pre-speciated CB6 inventory, and as VOC for sources that are not pre-speciated. Only the VOC and not the VOC_INV is speciated within SMOKE. Changes to point source IDs in the stationary source inventory were necessary for the PMC calculation, which is based on inventory PM10 and PM2.5. This SMOKE calculation requires that PM10 and PM2.5 emissions are assigned to the same point source IDs, but that was not always the case with respect to the rel_point_id and process_id fields for each unit. This was also an issue with the 2015 inventory, but the procedure that was used to fix 2015 did not help resolve this issue in the future year inventories, and so a more robust fix was implemented for 2023 and 2028. All rel_point_id and process_id values in the 2023 and 2028 Canada stationary point inventories were redefined, such that all records with the same FIPS code, latitude, longitude, and stack parameters (implying emissions from the same stack) were assigned the same rel_point_id and process_id for all pollutants. This fixed all instances in which PM10 and PM2.5 from the same source were assigned different point source IDs, but there are still sources in the future year inventories in which PM10 emissions are less than the PM2.5 emissions from the same source.
Mexico
The othpt sector includes a general point source inventory in Mexico. This inventory is based on projections of a 2008 inventory. The inventory was originally projected to years 2018, 2025, and 2030 by ERG1 . For the beta and v1 platform future year projections, emissions values from 2018 and 2025 were interpolated to 2023, and values from 2025 and 2030 were interpolated to 2028. These inventories are unchanged from the 2011 platform.
 Nonpoint sources in Canada and Mexico (othar)
Canadian stationary sources
ECCC provided area stationary source inventories for the years 2023 and 2028. Unlike in their 2015 inventories in which dust and agricultural emissions were grouped into separate files, these sources were not provided as separate inventories for the future years. Therefore, dust emissions from the othafdust and othptdust sectors, and ag emissions from the othpt sector, needed to be removed from the future year area source inventory to prevent a double count. PM emissions for all SCCs in the othafdust inventory (see othafdust sector document) were moved to a separate inventory. Then, most emissions from agricultural SCCs (2801- and 2805-) were removed, since the NH3 and VOC emissions overlap the point format ag inventories which are part of the othpt sector, and the PM emissions were either already moved to the othafdust sector, overlap the othptdust sector, or were not present in 2015 (see note about fertilizer below). One ag SCC was partially retained in the area source inventory according to both the SCC and ECCC's 5-digit "sub-class codes". SCC<PHONE_NUMBER> for sub-class code 80104, which represents agricultural fuel combustion, was not removed from the area source inventory, since these emissions were part of the othar sector in 2016ff and are not included in any of the other inventories. PM emissions from fertilizer were not present in any 2015 ECCC inventory, but did appear in the future year area source inventory. According to ECCC, this was an error in 2015, and the 2015 inventories should have included approximately 7,000 tons per year of PM emissions from fertilizer. Fertilizer PM emissions were also excluded from in future year modeling to preserve consistency between modeling years. ECCC provided an additional stationary area source inventory for 2023 and 2028 representing electric power generation (EPG). According to ECCC, this inventory's emissions were covered by the point source EPG inventory in 2015 and does not double count the 2023 and 2028 point source inventories, and it is appropriate to include this new area source EPG inventory in the othar sector.
Canadian mobile sources
For mobile nonroad sources, including rail and CMV, future year inventories from ECCC were not available in time for inclusion in beta platform. Instead, ECCC provided data from which future year projections of these inventories could be derived. This data, provided by ECCC in a file called "Projected_CAN2015_2023_2028.xlsx", includes emissions data for 2015, 2023, and 2028 by pollutant, province, ECCC sub-class code, and other source categories. This data was used to calculate 2015-to-2023 and 2015-to-2028 projection factors, which were then applied to the 2015 mobile source inventories to create projections of Canadian mobile source emissions for 2023 and 2028. Projection factors were applied by province, sub-class code, and pollutant. The ECCC projection workbook included additional source information which provides more detail than do the subclass codes, but that more detailed information could not be easily mapped to the inventory, and the level of detail offered by the sub-class codes was considered sufficient for projection purposes. For the nonroad inventory, the sub-class code is analogous to the SCC7 level in U.S. inventories. For example, there are separate sub-class codes for fuels (e.g. 2-stroke gasoline, diesel, LPG) and category (e.g. construction, lawn and garden) but not for individual vehicle types within each category (e.g. snowmobiles, tractors). For CMV and rail, the sub-class code is closer to full SCC, because there are separate codes for port and underway emissions, and for freight and passenger rail emissions.
Mexico
The othar sector includes two Mexico inventories, an area inventory and a nonroad inventory. Similar to 2016, the future year Mexico inventories are based on projections of a 2008 inventory, but are based on different interpolations. In addition to the 2014 and 2018 projections that were the basis for 2016, these inventories were also originally projected to years 2025 and 2030.  For future year projections, emissions values from 2018 and 2025 were interpolated to 2023, and emissions values from 2025 and 2030 were interpolated to 2028. These emissions are unchanged from the 2011 platform, except that CMV emissions were removed from the nonroad inventory to prevent a double count with the Mexico CMV inventory, which was not part of the 2011 platform.
 Onroad sources in Canada and Mexico (onroad_can, onroad_mex)
For Canadian mobile onroad sources, future year inventories from ECCC were not available in time for inclusion in the v1 platform. Instead, ECCC provided data from which future year projections of these inventories could be derived. This data, provided by ECCC in a file called "Projected_CAN2015_2023_2028.xlsx", includes emissions data for 2015, 2023, and 2028 by pollutant, province, ECCC sub-class code, and other source categories. This data was used to calculate 2015-to-2023 and 2015-to-2028 projection factors, which were then applied to the 2015 mobile source inventories to create projections of Canadian mobile source emissions for 2023 and 2028. Projection factors were applied by province, sub-class code, and pollutant. The ECCC projection workbook included additional source information which provides more detail than do the subclass codes, but that more detailed information could not be easily mapped to the inventory, and the level of detail offered by the sub-class codes was considered sufficient for projection purposes. For the onroad inventory, the sub-class code is analogous to the SCC6+process level in U.S. inventories, in that it specifies fuel type, vehicle type, and process (e.g. brake, tire, exhaust, refueling), but not road type.

For Mexican mobile onroad sources, MOVES-Mexico was run to create emissions inventories for years 2023 and 2028. Results from those runs are used in future year emissions processing for the v1 platform. These emissions are unchanged from the 2011 platform.

Emission Summaries
Tables 5-1 through 5-4 summarize emissions by sector for the 2016fh, 2023fh1, and 2028fh1 cases. These summaries are provided at the national level by sector for the contiguous U.S. and for the portions of Canada and Mexico inside the larger 12km domain (12US1) discussed in Section 3.1 and for the 36-km domain (36US3).  Note that totals for the 12US2 domain are not available here, but the sum of the U.S. sectors would be essentially the same, only the Canadian and Mexican emissions would change according to how far north/south the grids go.  Note that the afdust sector emissions here represent the emissions after application of both the land use (transport fraction) and meteorological adjustments; therefore, this sector is called "afdust_adj" in these summaries.  The afdust emissions in the 36km domain are smaller than those in the 12km domain due to how the adjustment factors are computed and the size of the grid cells. The onroad sector totals are post-SMOKE-MOVES totals, representing air quality model-ready emission totals, and include CARB emissions for California. The cmv sectors include U.S. emissions within state waters only; these extend to roughly 3-5 miles offshore and includes CMV emissions at U.S. ports.  "Offshore" represents CMV emissions that are outside of U.S. state waters. Canadian CMV emissions are included in the other sector. The total of all US sectors is listed as "Con U.S. Total."  State totals and other summaries are available in the reports area on the web and FTP site for the 2016v1 platform (ftp://newftp.epa.gov/air/emismod/2016/v1/).

Table 5-1. National by-sector CAP emissions summaries for the 2016fh case, 12US1 grid (tons)
Sector
                                      CO
                                      NH3
                                      NOX
                                     PM10
                                     PM2_5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC
afdust_adj

                                                                      7,203,692
                                                                      1,006,446

ag

                                                                      3,409,761

                                                                        194,779
airports
                                                                        674,176
                                                                              0
                                                                        185,454
                                                                         11,068
                                                                          9,805
                                                                         25,412
                                                                         85,768
cmv_c1c2
                                                                         23,548
                                                                             83
                                                                        162,502
                                                                          4,457
                                                                          4,320
                                                                            634
                                                                          6,436
cmv_c3
                                                                         13,956
                                                                             39
                                                                        110,462
                                                                          2,201
                                                                          2,025
                                                                          4,528
                                                                          8,600
nonpt
                                                                      2,629,755
                                                                         78,509
                                                                        710,918
                                                                        570,314
                                                                        463,807
                                                                        138,650
                                                                      3,695,093
nonroad
                                                                     10,593,274
                                                                          1,845
                                                                      1,110,277
                                                                        109,196
                                                                        103,230
                                                                          2,133
                                                                      1,128,691
np_oilgas
                                                                        759,771
                                                                             12
                                                                        572,043
                                                                         14,050
                                                                         13,984
                                                                         19,243
                                                                      2,792,092
onroad
                                                                     19,889,617
                                                                        100,318
                                                                      3,630,693
                                                                        239,997
                                                                        117,758
                                                                         27,559
                                                                      1,852,260
ptagfire
                                                                        262,645
                                                                         51,276
                                                                         10,240
                                                                         38,688
                                                                         26,951
                                                                          3,694
                                                                         17,181
ptegu
                                                                        658,346
                                                                         23,976
                                                                      1,290,190
                                                                        163,981
                                                                        133,517
                                                                      1,540,589
                                                                         33,739
ptfire
                                                                     13,717,466
                                                                        239,605
                                                                        227,337
                                                                      1,461,693
                                                                      1,234,062
                                                                        111,291
                                                                      3,109,465
ptnonipm
                                                                      1,439,081
                                                                         63,731
                                                                        940,031
                                                                        396,884
                                                                        254,386
                                                                        654,527
                                                                        770,204
pt_oilgas
                                                                        167,531
                                                                          4,338
                                                                        339,280
                                                                         11,301
                                                                         10,784
                                                                         33,227
                                                                        127,565
rail
                                                                        104,551
                                                                            326
                                                                        559,381
                                                                         16,344
                                                                         15,819
                                                                            457
                                                                         26,082
rwc
                                                                      2,119,402
                                                                         15,439
                                                                         31,282
                                                                        317,469
                                                                        316,943
                                                                          7,703
                                                                        340,941

Con. U.S. Total
                                                                     53,053,119
                                                                      3,989,258
                                                                      9,880,090
                                                                     10,561,336
                                                                      3,713,836
                                                                      2,569,647
                                                                     14,188,893

beis
                                                                      7,167,921

                                                                        965,761

                                                                     42,133,700
CONUS + beis
                                                                     60,221,040
                                                                      3,989,258
                                                                     10,845,852
                                                                     10,561,336
                                                                      3,713,836
                                                                      2,569,647
                                                                     56,322,592

Can./Mex./Offshore

Sector
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM2_5
SO2
VOC
Canada othafdust

                                                                      1,060,979
                                                                        187,228

Canada othar
                                                                      2,727,917
                                                                          4,842
                                                                        397,394
                                                                        313,494
                                                                        248,467
                                                                         19,939
                                                                        832,491
Canada onroad_can
                                                                      1,665,792
                                                                          6,877
                                                                        404,856
                                                                         25,204
                                                                         14,076
                                                                          1,556
                                                                        143,213
Canada othpt
                                                                      1,081,673
                                                                        503,214
                                                                        657,348
                                                                        115,280
                                                                         46,765
                                                                        993,944
                                                                        797,611
Canada othptdust

                                                                        150,832
                                                                         55,539

Canada ptfire_othna
                                                                        761,402
                                                                         13,032
                                                                         16,359
                                                                         84,476
                                                                         71,745
                                                                          6,731
                                                                        185,476
Canada CMV
                                                                         10,741
                                                                             37
                                                                         93,456
                                                                          1,682
                                                                          1,563
                                                                          2,984
                                                                          5,184
Mexico othar
                                                                        241,571
                                                                        201,994
                                                                        220,491
                                                                        115,460
                                                                         54,294
                                                                          7,717
                                                                        522,236
Mexico onroad_mex
                                                                      1,828,101
                                                                          2,789
                                                                        442,410
                                                                         15,151
                                                                         10,836
                                                                          6,247
                                                                        158,812
Mexico othpt
                                                                        171,065
                                                                          5,049
                                                                        371,671
                                                                         67,173
                                                                         51,791
                                                                        436,802
                                                                         67,343
Mexico ptfire_othna
                                                                        383,162
                                                                          7,436
                                                                         16,604
                                                                         44,992
                                                                         38,176
                                                                          2,785
                                                                        131,499
Mexico CMV
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Offshore cmv in Federal waters
                                                                         33,224
                                                                            128
                                                                        293,102
                                                                          7,188
                                                                          6,658
                                                                         28,060
                                                                         16,209
Offshore cmv outside Federal waters
                                                                         23,338
                                                                            440
                                                                        257,615
                                                                         24,828
                                                                         22,848
                                                                        181,941
                                                                         11,083
Offshore pt_oilgas
                                                                         50,052
                                                                             15
                                                                         48,691
                                                                            668
                                                                            667
                                                                            502
                                                                         48,210
Non-US Total
                                                                      8,978,039
                                                                        745,854
                                                                      3,219,997
                                                                      2,027,409
                                                                        810,652
                                                                      1,689,208
                                                                      2,919,366

Table 5-2. National by-sector CAP emissions summaries for the 2023fh1 case, 12US1 grid (tons)
Sector
                                      CO
                                      NH3
                                      NOX
                                     PM10
                                     PM2_5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC
afdust_adj

                                                                      7,255,011
                                                                      1,016,777

ag

                                                                      3,543,157

                                                                        205,451
airports
                                                                        738,835
                                                                              0
                                                                        219,766
                                                                         11,358
                                                                         10,127
                                                                         30,208
                                                                         92,473
cmv_c1c2
                                                                         23,570
                                                                             59
                                                                        116,344
                                                                          3,191
                                                                          3,093
                                                                            242
                                                                          4,527
cmv_c3
                                                                         16,709
                                                                             48
                                                                        104,555
                                                                          2,623
                                                                          2,413
                                                                          5,380
                                                                         10,397
nonpt
                                                                      2,644,789
                                                                         79,342
                                                                        709,268
                                                                        579,169
                                                                        472,935
                                                                        106,355
                                                                      3,756,888
nonroad
                                                                     10,581,376
                                                                          2,032
                                                                        737,625
                                                                         71,457
                                                                         66,940
                                                                          1,527
                                                                        856,474
np_oilgas
                                                                        788,072
                                                                             20
                                                                        585,230
                                                                         16,221
                                                                         16,102
                                                                         31,269
                                                                      3,203,738
onroad
                                                                     13,773,993
                                                                         89,285
                                                                      1,751,007
                                                                        199,979
                                                                         72,468
                                                                         12,484
                                                                      1,098,966
ptagfire
                                                                        262,645
                                                                         51,276
                                                                         10,240
                                                                         38,688
                                                                         26,951
                                                                          3,694
                                                                         17,181
ptegu
                                                                        659,538
                                                                         36,544
                                                                            996
                                                                        144,758
                                                                        124,433
                                                                         18,820
                                                                         35,922
ptfire
                                                                     13,717,466
                                                                        239,605
                                                                        227,337
                                                                      1,461,693
                                                                      1,234,062
                                                                        111,291
                                                                      3,109,465
ptnonipm
                                                                      1,448,566
                                                                         63,739
                                                                        928,896
                                                                        400,192
                                                                        257,145
                                                                        572,494
                                                                        771,838
pt_oilgas
                                                                        186,242
                                                                          4,377
                                                                        361,166
                                                                         13,602
                                                                         12,973
                                                                         38,125
                                                                        156,725
rail
                                                                        105,988
                                                                            330
                                                                        469,157
                                                                         12,778
                                                                         12,376
                                                                            460
                                                                         20,436
rwc
                                                                      2,046,853
                                                                         14,793
                                                                         31,902
                                                                        304,464
                                                                        303,920
                                                                          7,010
                                                                        329,017

Con. U.S. Total
                                                                     46,994,644
                                                                      4,124,607
                                                                      6,253,489
                                                                     10,515,185
                                                                      3,632,716
                                                                        939,358
                                                                     13,669,497

beis
                                                                      7,167,921

                                                                        965,761

                                                                     42,133,700
CONUS + beis
                                                                     54,162,565
                                                                      4,124,607
                                                                      7,219,250
                                                                     10,515,185
                                                                      3,632,716
                                                                        939,358
                                                                     55,803,196

Can./Mex./Offshore

Sector
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM2_5
SO2
VOC
Canada othafdust

                                                                      1,178,439
                                                                        207,111

Canada othar
                                                                      2,689,047
                                                                          4,702
                                                                        310,393
                                                                        303,854
                                                                        228,992
                                                                         19,477
                                                                        823,199
Canada onroad_can
                                                                      1,418,143
                                                                          6,043
                                                                        234,813
                                                                         25,849
                                                                         10,996
                                                                            752
                                                                         87,466
Canada othpt
                                                                      1,094,900
                                                                        610,668
                                                                        541,448
                                                                         87,726
                                                                         46,205
                                                                        868,739
                                                                        684,095
Canada othptdust

                                                                        150,854
                                                                         55,547

Canada ptfire_othna
                                                                        760,345
                                                                         13,015
                                                                         16,337
                                                                         84,366
                                                                         71,652