[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 10 (Friday, January 15, 2016)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 2140-2159]
[FR Doc No: 2016-00089]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2015-0048; FRL-9940-95-Region 9]

Clean Air Plans; 1-Hour and 1997 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements; San Joaquin Valley, California

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve a state implementation plan (SIP) revision submitted by the
State of California to provide for attainment of the 1-hour ozone
national ambient air quality standard in the San Joaquin Valley,
California ozone nonattainment area and to meet other Clean Air Act
requirements. Specifically, with respect to the 1-hour ozone standard,
the EPA is proposing to find the emissions inventories to be acceptable
and to approve the reasonably available control measures demonstration,
the rate of progress demonstrations, the attainment demonstration,
contingency measures for failure to meet rate of progress milestones,
the provisions for advanced technology/clean fuels for boilers, and the
demonstration that the plan provides sufficient transportation control
strategies and measures to offset emissions increases due to increases
in motor vehicle activity. For the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, the EPA
is proposing to approve the demonstration that the plan provides
sufficient transportation control strategies and measures to offset
emissions increases due to increases in motor vehicle activity.

DATES: Any comments must arrive by February 16, 2016.

ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID Number EPA-
R09-OAR-2015-0048, by one of the following methods:
    1. http://www.regulations.gov: Follow the on-line instructions for
submitting comments.
    2. Email<EMAIL_ADDRESS>    3. Mail or deliver: John Ungvarsky (AIR-2), U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA
94105-3901. Deliveries are only accepted during the Regional Office's
normal hours of operation.
    Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket
without change and may be made available online at http://www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided,
unless the comment includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or
other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Information that you consider CBI or otherwise protected should be
clearly identified as such and should not be submitted through http://www.regulations.gov or email. http://www.regulations.gov is an
anonymous access system, and the EPA will not know your identity or
contact information unless you provide it in the body of your comment.
If you send an email directly to the EPA, your email address will be
automatically captured and included as part of the public comment. If
the EPA cannot read your comment due to technical difficulties and
cannot contact you for clarification, the EPA may not be able to
consider your comment.

    Docket: The index to the docket and documents in the docket for
this action are generally available electronically at
www.regulations.gov and in hard copy at EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne
Street, San Francisco, California. While all documents in the docket
are listed at www.regulations.gov, some information may be publicly
available only at the hard copy location (e.g., copyrighted material,
large maps), and some may not be publicly available in either location
(e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please schedule an
appointment during normal business hours with the contact listed in the
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John Ungvarsky, Air Planning Office
(AIR-2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 9, (415) 972-
3963<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and
``our'' refer to the EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Regulatory Context
    A. Ozone Standards, SIPs, and Area Designations
    B. The San Joaquin Valley Nonattainment Area
II. CARB's SIP Revision Submittal To Address Remaining 1-Hour and
1997 8-Hour Ozone Requirements in the San Joaquin Valley
    A. CARB's SIP Submittal
    B. CAA Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submittal of SIP
Revisions
III. Evaluation of the 2013 Ozone Plan
    A. Emissions Inventories
    B. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and
Control Strategy
    C. Rate of Progress Demonstration
    D. Attainment Demonstration
    E. Contingency Measures
    F. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers
    G. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control
Measures to Offset Growth in Emissions from Growth in Vehicle Miles
Traveled or Number of Vehicle Trips
IV. Proposed Action
V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. Regulatory Context

A. Ozone Standards, SIPs, and Area Designations

    Ground-level ozone is formed when oxides of nitrogen
(NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) react in the
presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants, referred to as ozone
precursors, are emitted by many types of pollution sources, including
on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden
equipment and paints. Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public
health effects occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in
children and adults with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone
can reduce lung function and inflame airways, which can increase
respiratory symptoms and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases. See
``Fact Sheet, Proposal to Revise the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards for Ozone,'' January 6, 2010 and 75 FR 2938 (January 19,
2010).
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    \1\ California plans sometimes use the term Reactive Organic
Gases (ROG) for VOC. These terms are essentially synonymous. For
simplicity, we use the term VOC herein to mean either VOC or ROG.
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    Under section 109 of the Clean Air Act (CAA), the EPA promulgates
national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or standards) for
pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. In 1979, the EPA established
the NAAQS for ozone at 0.12 parts per million (ppm) averaged over a 1-
hour period (``1-hour ozone standard''). 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).
An area is considered to have attained the 1-hour ozone standard if
there are no violations of the standard, as determined in accordance
with the regulation codified at 40 CFR 50.9, based on three consecutive
calendar years of complete, quality assured and certified monitoring
data. A violation occurs when the ambient ozone air quality monitoring
data show greater than one (1.0) ``expected number'' of exceedances per
year at any site in the area, when averaged over three consecutive
calendar years.\2\ An exceedance occurs when the maximum hourly ozone
concentration during any day exceeds 0.124 ppm. For more information,
see ``National 1-hour primary and secondary ambient air quality
standards for ozone'' (40 CFR 50.9) and ``Interpretation of the 1-Hour
Primary and Secondary National Ambient Air Quality Standards for
Ozone'' (40 CFR part 50, appendix H).
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    \2\ An ``expected number'' of exceedances is a statistical term
that refers to an arithmetic average. An ``expected number'' of
exceedances may be equivalent to the number of observed exceedances
plus an increment that accounts for incomplete sampling. See, 40 CFR
part 50, appendix H. Because, in this context, the term
``exceedances'' refers to days (during which the daily maximum
hourly ozone concentration exceeded 0.124 ppm), the maximum possible
number of exceedances in a given year is 365 (or 366 in a leap
year).
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    In 1997, the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone to set the acceptable
level of ozone in the ambient air at 0.08 ppm, averaged over an 8-hour
period (``1997 8-hour ozone standard''). 62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997).
The EPA determined that the 1997 8-hour standard would be more
protective of human health, especially children and adults who are
active outdoors, and individuals with a pre-existing respiratory
disease, such as asthma. In 2008, the EPA revised and further
strengthened the NAAQS for ozone by setting the acceptable level of
ozone in the ambient air at 0.075 ppm, averaged over an 8-hour period
(``2008 8-hour ozone standard''). 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008). In
2015, the EPA further tightened the 8-hour ozone standard to 0.070 ppm.
80 FR 65292 (October 26, 2015). While both the 1979 1-hour ozone
standard and the 1997 8-hour ozone standard have been revoked, certain
requirements that had applied under the revoked standards continue to
apply under the anti-backsliding provisions of CAA section 172(e).
    Once the EPA has promulgated a NAAQS, states are required to
develop and submit plans that provide for the implementation,
maintenance, and enforcement of the NAAQS under CAA section 110(a)(1).
The content requirements for such plans, which are referred to as state
implementation plans (SIPs) are found in CAA section 110(a)(2). Under
the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1977, the EPA designated all areas of
the country as ``attainment,'' ``nonattainment,'' or ``unclassifiable''
for the various NAAQS depending upon the availability of ambient
concentration data and depending upon whether violations of the NAAQS
were occurring in a given area. The CAA further requires states with
``nonattainment'' areas to submit revisions to their SIPs that provide
for, among other things, attainment of the relevant standard within
certain prescribed periods.
    In California, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is
responsible for adoption and submittal to the EPA of California SIPs
and California SIP revisions and is the primary State agency
responsible for regulation of mobile sources. Local and regional air
pollution control districts are responsible for developing regional air
quality plans and for regulation of stationary sources. For the San
Joaquin Valley, the San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control
District (SJVUAPCD or ``District'') develops and adopts air quality
management plans to address CAA SIP planning requirements applicable to
that region. Such plans are then submitted to CARB for adoption and
submittal to the EPA as revisions to the California SIP.

B. The San Joaquin Valley Nonattainment Area

    Under the 1977 CAA Amendments, the EPA designated the San Joaquin
Valley Air Basin (``San Joaquin Valley'' or ``Valley'') as a
``nonattainment'' area for the photochemical oxidant (later, the 1-hour
ozone) NAAQS. 43 FR 8962, at

8972 (March 3, 1978). Initially, eight entire counties comprised the
San Joaquin Valley: San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno,
Tulare, Kings, and Kern counties. In 2001, however, the EPA approved a
request to revise the boundary of the San Joaquin Valley to exclude
eastern Kern County. 66 FR 56476 (November 8, 2001). As such, the San
Joaquin Valley ozone nonattainment area stretches over 250 miles from
north to south, averages a width of 80 miles, and encompasses over
23,000 square miles. It is partially enclosed by the Coast Mountain
range to the west, the Tehachapi Mountains to the south, and the Sierra
Nevada range to the east. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the nation's
leading agricultural areas, and in recent decades, has experienced a
high rate of growth in population. From 1990 to 2010, the population in
the Valley increased from approximately 2.7 million to 4 million
people. For a precise description of the geographic boundaries of the
San Joaquin Valley, see 40 CFR 81.305.
    The CAA, as amended in 1977, required states to submit SIP
revisions for nonattainment areas that, among other requirements,
provided for attainment no later than 1987; however, like many areas of
the country, the San Joaquin Valley failed to attain the ozone NAAQS by
1987. In the 1990 CAA Amendments, Congress established a classification
system for ozone nonattainment areas under which areas with more severe
ozone problems were given a higher classification and more time to
attain the standard but were subject to a greater number of, and more
stringent, SIP requirements. The classifications include ``Marginal,''
``Moderate,'' ``Serious,'' ``Severe,'' and ``Extreme.'' See CAA section
181(a)(1).
    Under this classification system, the San Joaquin Valley was
classified as a ``Serious'' ozone nonattainment area for the 1-hour
ozone standard with an attainment date of no later than November 15,
1999. 56 FR 56694 (November 6, 1991). In response, in 1994, CARB
submitted The California Ozone State Implementation Plan (``1994
California Ozone Plan''), a comprehensive ozone plan for the State of
California that included a state strategy as well as certain regional
ozone plans, such as the regional plan for the San Joaquin Valley. The
EPA approved the 1994 California Ozone Plan in 1997. 62 FR 1150
(January 8, 1997).
    In 2001, the EPA found that the San Joaquin Valley had failed to
attain the 1-hour ozone standard by the ``Serious'' area deadline and
reclassified the area to ``Severe.'' 66 FR 56476 (November 8, 2001). In
2004, the EPA granted the State's request to voluntarily reclassify the
San Joaquin Valley from ``Severe'' to ``Extreme'' for the 1-hour ozone
standard and required the state to submit a SIP revision providing for
the ``Extreme'' area SIP elements in CAA section 182(e), which include
a demonstration of attainment of the standard as expeditiously as
practicable, but no later than November 15, 2010. 69 FR 20550 (April
16, 2004).
    In response, CARB and the District developed and adopted the
Extreme Ozone Attainment Demonstration Plan (``2004 Ozone Plan'') for
the San Joaquin Valley, and, in 2004, CARB submitted the 2004 Ozone
Plan to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP. The 2004 Ozone
Plan was supported by certain measures and commitments contained in the
state's ``2003 State Strategy.'' The 2004 Ozone Plan was later amended
and clarified, and the EPA approved the plan, as amended and clarified,
in 2010. 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010).
    Specifically, we approved the following elements of the 2004 Ozone
Plan: (1) Rate-of-progress (ROP) demonstration as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2) and 40 CFR
51.905(a)(1)(i) and 51.900(f)(4); (2) ROP contingency measures as
meeting the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9); (3)
the attainment demonstration as meeting the requirements of
182(c)(2)(A) and 181(a) and 40 CFR 51.905(a)(1)(ii); (4) the attainment
contingency measures as meeting the requirements of CAA section
172(c)(9); and (5), along with certain measures contained in the 2003
State Strategy, the demonstration of implementation of reasonably
available control measures (RACM)(exclusive of RACT) \3\ as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c) and 40 CFR 51.905(a)(1)(ii). Id., at
10436-10437. In connection with the control strategy of the attainment
demonstration, we approved certain committal measures and aggregate
emission reduction commitments made by CARB and the District. Id. We
also found that the 2004 Ozone Plan met the following requirements: (1)
CAA section 182(e)(3) and 40 CFR 51.905(a)(1)(i) and 51.900(f)(7) for
clean fuel/clean technology boilers; and (2) CAA section 182(d)(1)(A)
and 40 CFR 51.905(a)(1)(i) and 51.900(f)(11) for transportation control
measures (TCMs) sufficient to offset growth in emissions from growth in
vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) or the number of vehicle trips. Lastly, in
our approval of the 2004 Ozone Plan, we approved a specific rule,
District Rule 9310, related to school buses.
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    \3\ We addressed the SIP requirements related to implementation
of reasonably available control technology (RACT) for the 1-hour
ozone standard in separately rulemakings. See, e.g., 77 FR 1417
(January 10, 2012)(final partial approval and partial disapproval of
the San Joaquin Valley RACT SIP).
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    Our approval of the 2004 Ozone Plan was challenged, and the U.S.
Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit remanded the approval of the
plan back to the EPA based on its conclusion that the EPA had not
adequately considered and addressed the implications of more recent
emissions data in determining that the 2004 Ozone Plan had met all
applicable CAA requirements. Sierra Club v. EPA, 671 F.3d 955 (9th Cir.
2012) (``Sierra Club'').\4\ In response to the Sierra Club decision,
the EPA withdrew its approval of the 2004 Ozone Plan. 77 FR 70376
(November 26, 2012).\5\ CARB indicated that it intended to withdraw the
plan upon EPA's approval withdrawal action, and thus, in the same
Federal Register document as the withdrawal of approval, the EPA issued
a finding of failure to submit required SIP revisions to provide for
attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley.
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    \4\ For further background on this court decision, see our
proposed rule at 77 FR 58078 (September 19, 2012).
    \5\ The EPA's March 8, 2010 final rule taking action on the 2004
Ozone Plan also took final approval action on SJVUAPCD Rule 9310
(``School Bus Fleets''). Approval of District Rule 9310 was not
affected by the decision in Sierra Club, and thus the EPA did not
withdraw its approval of that rule when it withdrew its approval of
the rest of the action taken on March 8, 2010. However, the EPA did
intend to withdraw approval of all of the elements of the 2004 Ozone
Plan but inadvertently failed to withdraw its approval of the 2008
Clarification submitted by CARB in support of the 2004 Ozone Plan.
See 40 CFR 52.220(c)(371), and the EPA intends to fix this error by
withdrawing that paragraph from 40 CFR 52.220(c) when it takes final
action on the 2013 Ozone Plan.
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    Meanwhile, as noted above, in 1997, the EPA established an 8-hour
ozone standard to replace the 1-hour ozone standard, and in 2004, the
EPA designated the San Joaquin Valley as a ``Serious'' nonattainment
area for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. 69 FR 23858, at 23888-23899
(April 30, 2004). In 2010, the EPA approved a request by CARB to
reclassify the San Joaquin Valley as ``Extreme'' for the 1997 8-hour
ozone standard. 75 FR 24409 (May 5, 2010). In 2004, the EPA also
established regulations governing the transition from the 1-hour ozone
standard to the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, and under these
regulations, the 1-hour ozone standard was revoked in most areas of the
country, including the San Joaquin Valley, effective June 15, 2005, but
the SIP revision requirements that applied at the time of revocation of
the standard continue to apply after revocation

consistent with the anti-backsliding provisions in section 172(e). This
means that, notwithstanding revocation of the 1-hour ozone standard,
the San Joaquin Valley remained subject to ``Extreme'' area
requirements for the 1-hour ozone standard and is also subject to the
``Extreme'' area requirements for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.
    In 2007, in response to SIP revision requirements for the 1997 8-
hour ozone standard, CARB and the District developed and adopted the
2007 Ozone Plan (``2007 Ozone Plan'') and related portions of the 2007
State Strategy and submitted them to the EPA as revisions to the SIP.
The 2007 Ozone Plan was revised in 2008 and 2011, and in 2012, the EPA
approved the plan, as revised, together with the related portions of
the 2007 State Strategy. 77 FR 12652 (March 1, 2012). Our approval of
the 2007 Ozone Plan and related portions of the 2007 State Strategy
were challenged in the Ninth Circuit. In 2015, the Ninth Circuit upheld
the EPA's approval of CARB's and the District's committal measures but
rejected the EPA's longstanding interpretation of the CAA as allowing
California to take emissions reduction credit for mobile source
regulations that the EPA has waived or authorized under CAA section 209
notwithstanding their absence from the federally enforceable California
SIP. See Committee for a Better Arvin v. EPA, 786 F.3d 1169 (9th Cir.
2015) (``Committee for a Better Arvin''). In light of the decision in
Committee for a Better Arvin, the EPA has proposed approval as a
revision to the California SIP of a number of CARB's mobile source
regulations for which preemption has been waived or authorized under
CAA section 209. 80 FR 69915 (November 12, 2015).
    As part of the approval of the 2007 Ozone Plan, the EPA approved
the demonstration that the plan provides for transportation control
strategies (TCS) and TCMs sufficient to offset any growth in emissions
from growth in VMT or the number of vehicle trips as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A). Id., at 12670.\6\ In
approving the VMT emissions offset demonstration in 2012, the EPA
applied its then-longstanding interpretation of the VMT emissions
offset requirement in CAA section 182(d)(1)(A), first explained in
guidance in the General Preamble to Title I of the CAA (see 57 FR
13498, at 13521-13523, April 16, 1992) (herein referred to as the
``General Preamble''), that no transportation control measures are
necessary if aggregate motor vehicle emissions are projected to decline
each year from the base year of the plan to the attainment year. See 76
FR 57872, at 57889 (September 16, 2011). The EPA approved the plan as
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) because the
emissions inventories in the 2007 Ozone Plan showed decreases in
aggregate year-over-year motor vehicle emissions in the San Joaquin
Valley from a base year through the applicable attainment year.
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    \6\ CAA section 182(d)(1)(A), which, in relevant part, requires
the state, if subject to its requirements, to ``submit a revision
that identifies and adopts specific enforceable transportation
control strategies and transportation control measures to offset any
growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles traveled or numbers
of vehicle trips in such area.'' Herein, we use ``VMT'' to refer to
vehicle miles traveled, and refer to the related SIP requirement as
the ``VMT emissions offset requirement.'' In addition, we refer to
the SIP revision intended to demonstrate compliance with the VMT
emissions offset requirement as the ``VMT emissions offset
demonstration.''
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    However, between the time when the EPA's approval of the 2007 Ozone
Plan was signed and when it was published in the Federal Register, the
EPA's petition for rehearing in a case challenging the EPA's
longstanding interpretation of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) was denied. See
Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d. 584, at 596-597
(9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d
668, further amended February 13, 2012 (``Association of Irritated
Residents''). In the Association of Irritated Residents case, the Court
ruled that additional transportation control measures are required
whenever vehicle emissions are projected to be higher than they would
have been had VMT not increased, even when aggregate vehicle emissions
are actually decreasing. In light of the Association of Irritated
Residents decision, the EPA withdrew its determination that the 2007
Ozone Plan provided sufficient TCMs to offset the growth in emissions
from the growth in VMT in the same Federal Register document as the
Agency's withdrawal of the approval of the 2004 Ozone Plan and finding
of failure to submit required SIP revisions. 77 FR 70376 (November 26,
2012).
    In 2013, in response to the EPA's withdrawal of approval of the
2004 Ozone Plan and the VMT emission offset demonstration for the 1997
8-hour ozone standard and the related finding of failure to submit,
CARB and the District prepared, adopted, and submitted the 2013 Plan
for the Revoked 1-Hour Ozone Standard (``2013 Ozone Plan''). The 2013
Ozone Plan addresses the various 1-hour ozone SIP elements for which
the EPA had withdrawn approval (i.e., RACM, ROP and attainment
demonstrations, ROP and attainment contingency measures, clean fuels/
clean technology boilers, and VMT emissions offset demonstration) and
also addresses the VMT emissions offset requirement for the 1997 8-hour
ozone standard. The 2013 Ozone Plan builds upon the regulatory
foundation built by previous San Joaquin Valley attainment plans for
ozone as well as for other nonattainment pollutants, including
PM10 and PM2.5, including, but not limited to,
dozens of District rules establishing VOC or NOX emissions
limits and other requirements for various types of stationary sources,
and dozens of state regulations establishing such limits and
requirements for various types of mobile sources, for vehicle
inspection and maintenance, for gasoline and diesel fuels, for consumer
products and pesticides. These various regulatory programs have
resulted in significant emissions reductions of ozone precursors and
corresponding ozone concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley despite
high rates of growth in population and regional VMT. For instance, 1-
hour ozone exceedance days within the Valley (i.e., number of days in a
year during which the 0.12 ppm standard was violated at a (i.e., at
least one) monitoring site) have decreased from 45 in 1990 to 3 in
2012. See table A-1 of 2013 Ozone Plan. However, as of 2012, the Valley
continued to experience violations of the 1-hour ozone standard, and
the 2013 Ozone Plan was developed to demonstrate attainment of that
standard, and to meet the other remaining 1-hour ozone SIP obligations
(and the VMT emissions offset requirement for the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard).
    Lastly, as noted above, the EPA tightened the 8-hour ozone standard
in 2008 and tightened the standard further in 2015. The EPA has
designated the San Joaquin Valley as an ``Extreme'' area for the 2008
8-hour ozone standard. 77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012). The ``Extreme'' area
plan for the San Joaquin Valley for the 2008 ozone standard is due in
2016. In establishing final implementation rules for the 2008 8-hour
ozone standard, the EPA revoked the 1997 8-hour ozone standards and
includes anti-backsliding requirements that apply upon revocation of
the 1997 8-hour ozone standards. 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
Consistent with the application of anti-backsliding provisions upon
revocation of the 1-hour ozone standards, areas that remain designated
as nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard at the time of
revocation of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard continue to be subject to
certain SIP requirements that had

applied by virtue of the area's classifications for the now-revoked
1997 8-hour ozone standard as well as the revoked 1-hour ozone
standard. Id. at 12296; 40 CFR 51.1105 and 51.1100(o). For the purposes
of this proposed action, this means that outstanding SIP requirements
linked to the San Joaquin Valley's ``Extreme'' nonattainment area
classifications for the 1-hour ozone standard and 1997 8-hour ozone
standard continue to apply notwithstanding the revocation of these two
ozone NAAQS. The EPA has not yet established area designations for the
2015 8-hour ozone standard.

II. CARB's SIP Revision Submittal To Address Remaining 1-Hour and 1997
8-Hour Ozone Requirements in the San Joaquin Valley

A. CARB's SIP Submittal

    The District adopted the 2013 Ozone Plan on September 19, 2013, and
CARB approved the plan as a revision to the California SIP on November
21, 2013.\7\ CARB submitted the 2013 Ozone Plan to the EPA on December
20, 2013.\8\ The 2013 Ozone Plan includes base year and projected
future year emissions inventories, air quality modeling, provisions
demonstrating implementation of RACM, provisions for advanced
technology/clean fuels for boilers, provisions for transportation
control strategies and measures, an ROP demonstration, an attainment
demonstration, and contingency measures for failure to make ROP or
attain.
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    \7\ See SJVUAPCD Governing Board Resolution 2013-09-13: In the
Matter of Adopting the San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution
Control District 2013 Plan For The Revoked 1-Hour Ozone Standard,
September 19, 2013; CARB Resolution No. 13-45, November 21, 2013.
    \8\ Letter, Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB to Jared
Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, December 20, 2013
with enclosures.
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    Appendix D of the 2013 Ozone Plan contains the VMT emissions offset
demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone and 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. On
June 19, 2014, CARB submitted a technical supplement to the VMT
emissions offset demonstrations submitted as part of the 2013 Ozone
Plan.\9\ CARB's technical supplement includes a revised set of motor
vehicle emissions estimates reflecting technical changes to the inputs
used to develop the original set of calculations.\10\ While the vehicle
emissions estimates in CARB's technical supplement differ from those
contained in the demonstrations in the 2013 Ozone Plan, the conclusions
of the analyses remain the same.
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    \9\ See June 19, 2014 letter and enclosures from Lynn Terry,
Deputy Executive Officer, CARB, to Deborah Jordan, Director, Air
Division, EPA Region 9. On July 25, 2014, CARB sent the EPA a
revised technical supplement that corrected a minor typographical
error. See record of July 25, 2014 email and attachment from Jon
Taylor, CARB, to Matt Lakin, EPA Region 9, included in the docket.
    \10\ The principal difference between the two sets of
calculations is that CARB's technical supplement includes running
exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and running loss emissions of VOCs
in all of the emissions scenarios. These processes are directly
related to VMT and vehicle trips. The revised calculation excludes
diurnal and resting loss emissions of VOCs from all of the emissions
scenarios because such evaporative emissions are related to vehicle
population rather than to VMT or vehicle trips.
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B. CAA Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submittal of SIP
Revisions

    CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing
prior to the adoption and submittal of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public
hearing was provided consistent with the EPA's implementing regulations
in 40 CFR 51.102.
    Both the District and CARB have satisfied applicable statutory and
regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior
to adoption and submittal of the 2013 Ozone Plan. The District
conducted a public workshop on April 16, 2013. On August 20, 2013, the
District posted on its Web site an announcement and supporting
documents for a September 19, 2013 public hearing and also sent out an
email to<EMAIL_ADDRESS>informing interested individuals
and parties about the public hearing and links to key documents and
participation via webcast.\11\ The District thereby provided the
required public notice and opportunity for public comment prior to its
public hearing on the 2013 Ozone Plan. On September 19, 2013, the
District held a public hearing to adopt the 2013 Ozone Plan and adopted
the plan on that date. See 2013 Ozone Plan, appendix J (``Summary of
Significant Comments and Responses'') and SJVUAPCD Governing Board
Resolution 2013-9-13.
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    \11\ January 30, 2015 email from Elizabeth Melgoza, CARB, to
John Ungvarsky, EPA Region 9; May 13, 2015 and May 19, 2015 emails
from SJVUAPCD staff to John Ungvarsky, EPA Region 9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB also provided the required public notice and opportunity for
public comment prior to its November 21, 2013 public hearing and
approval of the 2013 Ozone Plan as a revision to the California SIP.
See CARB ``Notice of Public Meeting'' dated October 21, 2013, and CARB
Resolution No. 13-45. As noted previously, on December 20, 2013, CARB
submitted the 2013 Ozone Plan and related public process documentation
to the EPA. The EPA determined that CARB's December 20, 2013 SIP
revision submittal was complete on May 19, 2014.\12\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \12\ See letter from Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA
Region 9, to Richard W. Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, dated May
19, 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on information in the December 20, 2013 SIP submittal and
subsequent email communication with District staff, the EPA has
determined that all hearings were properly noticed. We find, therefore,
that the submittal of the 2013 Ozone Plan meets the procedural
requirements for public notice and hearing in CAA sections 110(a) and
110(l).

III. Evaluation of the 2013 Ozone Plan

A. Emissions Inventories

    We have evaluated the emissions inventories in the 2013 Ozone Plan
to determine if they are consistent with EPA guidance (General Preamble
at 13502) and adequate to support that plan's RACM, ROP and attainment
demonstrations. Appendix B of the 2013 Ozone Plan presents the base
year and projected emission inventories relied on for the ROP and
attainment demonstrations. Appendix B also discusses the methodology
used to determine base year (2007) emissions and identifies the growth
and control factors used to project emissions for the 2013 and 2016
(ROP milestone years) and 2017 (ROP increment and attainment) projected
year inventories. The plan includes summer (May through October)
average daily inventories for the base year of 2007 and projected
inventories for years 2013 through 2022 for all major source categories
(stationary sources, area sources, and on-road and nonroad mobile
sources). Emissions are calculated for the two major ozone precursors--
NOX and VOC. See tables B-1 and B-2 of appendix B of the
2013 Ozone Plan. Additional documentation for the inventories prepared
for the 2013 Ozone Plan are found in appendix E, section 6 of the 2013
Ozone Plan.
    The emissions inventories in the 2013 Ozone Plan were developed
using data provided by CARB, the California Department of
Transportation, and the San Joaquin Valley's eight metropolitan
planning organizations (MPO).\13\ These

agencies collect data (e.g., industry growth factors, socioeconomic
projections, travel activity levels, emission factors, emission
speciation profiles, and emissions) and develop methodologies (e.g.,
model and demographic forecast improvements) used to generate
comprehensive emissions inventories. CARB maintains statewide
inventories in its California Emissions Inventory Development and
Reporting System (CEIDARS) and uses the California Emission Forecasting
and Planning Inventory System (CEFS) to forecast or backcast emissions.
CEFS is designed to generate year-specific emissions estimates for each
county/air basin/district combination taking into account two factors:
the effects of growth, and the effects of adopted emission control
rules. It does this by linking these growth and control factors
directly to CEIDARS emission categories for a particular base year. The
2007 inventory was used to project future years using CARB's CEFS v
1.06.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \13\ These eight MPOs represent the eight counties in the San
Joaquin Valley air basin: the San Joaquin Council of Governments,
the Stanislaus Council of Governments, the Merced County Association
of Governments, the Madera County Transportation Commission, the
Council of Fresno County Governments, Kings County Association of
Governments, the Tulare County Association of Governments, and the
Kern Council of Governments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB also conducts periodic evaluations and updates of the growth
profiles to ensure that emission forecasts are based on data that
reflect historical trends, current conditions, and recent forecasts.
CARB staff conducted a category-by-category review and update of the
growth profile data for source categories that, in aggregate, comprise
more than 95 percent of the NOX or VOC emissions in the San
Joaquin Valley. To capture the effects of the economic recession, CARB
staff ensured that the growth profiles included historical data through
at least 2008 (data through 2009 or 2010 were included when available).
Growth forecasts for the years 2009 and beyond were obtained primarily
from government entities with expertise in developing forecasts for
specific sectors, or in some cases, from econometric models.
    Motor vehicle emissions were based on estimates of VMT provided by
the regional transportation planning agencies and the California
Department of Transportation. The plan uses CARB's Emission FACtor
(EMFAC) model, version EMFAC2011, to calculate the emission factors for
cars, trucks and buses. At the time that the 2013 Ozone Plan was
developed, EMFAC2011 was the mobile source model approved for use in
California SIPs.\14\ Nonroad emissions estimates were based on CARB's
OFFROAD model.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \14\ See 78 FR 14533 (March 6, 2013) regarding the EPA approval
of the 2011 version of the California EMFAC model and announcement
of its availability. The software and detailed information on the
EMFAC vehicle emission model can be found on the following CARB Web
site: http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm. EMFAC2011 was the
approved version of EMFAC at the time of adoption and submittal of
the 2013 Ozone Plan. Recently, the EPA approved an updated version
of the model, EMFAC2014. 80 FR 77337 (December 14, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 1 provides a summary of the emissions estimates prepared for
the 2013 Ozone Plan for the base year (2007) and ROP and attainment
years 2013, 2016, and 2017.

                                Table 1--San Joaquin Valley Ozone Precursor Base Year and Projected Future Year Emissions
                                                                  [Summer average, tpd]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                NOX                                         VOC
                            Category                             ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     2007       2013       2016       2017       2007       2013       2016       2017
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary......................................................         57         40         30         30        100         96         97         97
Area............................................................         11         11         11         11        221        186        191        193
On-road Mobile..................................................        273        158        119        110         71         49         35         33
Off-road Mobile.................................................        144        108         99         97         65         49         45         43
                                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................................................        485        316        259        247        457        381        368        366
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2013 Ozone Plan, appendix B.
Note: Because of rounding conventions, the totals may not reflect total of categories.

    We have determined that the 2007 base year emission inventory in
the 2013 Ozone Plan is comprehensive, accurate, and current and that
this inventory as well as the 2013, 2016, and 2017 projected
inventories have been prepared consistent with EPA guidance.
Accordingly, we propose to find that these inventories provide an
appropriate basis for the various other elements of the 2013 Ozone
Plan, including RACM, and the ROP and attainment demonstrations.

B. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control
Strategy

1. Requirements for RACM and Control Strategies
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires nonattainment area plans to provide
for the implementation of all RACM. The RACM demonstration requirement
is a continuing applicable requirement for the San Joaquin Valley
``Extreme'' 1-hour ozone nonattainment area under EPA's anti-
backsliding rules that apply once a standard has been revoked. See 40
CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and 51.1100(o)(17).
    The EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM
requirement in the General Preamble at 13560 and a memorandum entitled
``Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and
Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas,''
John Seitz, Director, OAQPS to Regional Air Directors, November 30,
1999 (Seitz memo). In summary, EPA guidance provides that states, in
addressing the RACM requirement, should consider all potential measures
for source categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether
they are reasonably available for implementation in that area and
whether they would advance the area's attainment date by one or more
years.
2. RACM and Control Strategy in the 2013 Ozone Plan
    The District's RACM demonstration and control strategy for the 1-
hour ozone standard in the 2013 Ozone Plan relies on control measures
that have been adopted by CARB and the District under previous
attainment plans. In the more recent years prior to the adoption of the
2013 Ozone Plan, CARB and the District have developed and implemented
comprehensive plans for the 1997 8-hour ozone standards, 1997
PM2.5 standards, and 2006 PM2.5 standards that
resulted in the adoption of many new rules and revisions to

existing rules for stationary, area, and mobile sources. These
previously adopted measures generated significant reductions in
NOX and VOC emissions. The measures are listed in the
Technical Support Document (TSD) for today's action. The control
measures were developed and adopted under previous San Joaquin Valley
attainment plans, including the 2007 Ozone Plan, the 2008 PM2.5 Plan
(adopted April 30, 2008) (``2008 PM2.5 Plan''), and the 2012
PM2.5 Plan (adopted December 20, 2012) (``2012 PM2.5
Plan''), which were developed to provide, among other things, for
attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, the 1997 PM2.5
standards, and the 2006 PM2.5 standard, respectively, and
which relied on adoption and implementation by CARB of new or tightened
mobile source regulations under CARB's 2007 State Strategy.\15\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \15\ The EPA approved the San Joaquin Valley 2007 Ozone Plan and
related portions of the 2007 State Strategy at 77 FR 12652 (March 1,
2012); the San Joaquin Valley 2008 PM2.5 Plan and related
portions of the 2007 State Strategy at 76 FR 69896 (November 9,
2011). The EPA proposed to approve portions of the 2012
PM2.5 Plan on January 13, 2015 (80 FR 1816).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

a. The District's RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    The District's RACM analysis builds on previously adopted measures.
Table 3-1 (p. 3-3) in the 2013 Ozone Plan lists currently adopted
District rules that are contributing towards attainment of the 1-hour
ozone standard. The 2013 Ozone Plan's RACM evaluation for
NOX and VOC sources is summarized in section 4.2 (p. 4-2)
and detailed in appendix C (``Stationary and Area Source Control
Strategy Evaluation'') of the 2013 Ozone Plan. The evaluation of
potential controls in the 2013 Ozone Plan is presented by source
category. For stationary and area source categories, the evaluation is
broken down by the current District rule or rules that fall within a
given source category.
    The following information is provided in appendix C of the 2013
Ozone Plan for each stationary or area source category or District
rule:
     A description of the sources within the category or
sources subject to the rule;
     Base year (2007) and projected baseline year emissions
(for every year from 2013 to 2022) in the source category or affected
by the rule;
     A discussion of the current rule requirements and/or
listing and discussion of existing rules, regulations, or other control
efforts that address the source category; and
     Identification and discussion of potential new controls,
including in many cases, a discussion of the technological and economic
feasibility of the new controls. Rules adopted by other agencies
(including the EPA, South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD),
and Bay Area AQMD) are discussed and compared to existing SJVUAPCD
rules. Measures proposed by the public for the source category/rule are
also identified and discussed. In addition, non-regulatory approaches
to reducing emissions in each stationary and area source category are
discussed, including the use of incentives, opportunities for
technology advancement programs, policy initiatives, and education/
outreach programs.
    Through its RACM evaluation process, the District identified two
new control measures for adoption, and through adoption of the 2013
Ozone Plan, the District committed to adopt and submit these measures
as a revision to the California SIP (see District Resolution 2013-9-13,
page 5), although the District and State do not rely on reductions from
these commitments in their attainment demonstration. See 2013 Ozone
Plan, section 3.1.3 (p. 3-8).
    The District's commitments have been fulfilled in that the
anticipated rule amendments have been adopted and the rules have been
submitted to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP. The current
status of the rules is shown in table 2, and as shown there, the EPA
has approved one of the two rules and has proposed approval of the
other. We expect to take final action on the second rule prior to final
action on the 2013 Ozone Plan.

                       Table 2--Status of Rule Adoption Commitments in the 2013 Ozone Plan
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   Measure                                          Emission
             Rule                description     Adoption date  Submittal date     reductions         Status
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4308.........................  Boilers, Steam         11/14/13         5/13/14  Minimal in 2017  Approved 2/12/
                                Generators,                                                       15 (80 FR
                                and Process                                                       7803).
                                Heaters 0.075
                                to <2 MMBtu/hr.
4905.........................  Natural Gas-            1/22/15          4/7/15  To Be            Proposed
                                Fired, Fan                                       Determined.      Approval 11/5/
                                Type                                                              15 (80 FR
                                Residential                                                       68484).
                                Central
                                Furnaces.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2013 Ozone Plan, p. 3-9, table 3-3.

    In light of the comprehensiveness of the District's stationary and
area source program, and the stringency of the District's regulations,
the 2013 Ozone Plan concludes that RACM is being implemented for
sources under the District's jurisdiction. See section 4.2.1 of the
2013 Ozone Plan.
    The District also identified a number of source categories for
which existing information is inadequate to determine the feasibility
of additional controls. These categories and the additional controls to
be studied are discussed in section 3.1.4. (p. 3-9). The schedule for
these studies is given in table 3-4 (see 2013 Ozone Plan, p. 3-10).
    The TSD for today's action includes additional information on each
District rule, including its status in terms of federal approval and
the net inventory changes between 2007 and 2017.
b. CARB and Metropolitan Planning Organizations' RACM Analysis and
Adopted Control Strategy
    Given the need for significant emissions reductions in California
nonattainment areas, CARB has been a leader in the development and
adoption of stringent mobile source control measures nationwide and has
unique authority under CAA section 209 (subject to a waiver or
authorization by the EPA) to adopt and implement new emissions
standards for many categories of on-road vehicles and engines and new
and in-use off-road engines. CARB has adopted standards and other
requirements related to the control of emissions from numerous types of
on-road motor vehicles and new and in-use off-road vehicles, such as
passenger cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles, off-road engines (gasoline
and diesel-powered), in-use off-road diesel fueled fleets, portable
equipment, marine engines, and many others.
    Historically, the EPA has allowed California to take into account
emissions reductions from CARB regulations for which the EPA has issued
waivers or authorizations under

CAA section 209 notwithstanding the fact that these regulations have
not been approved as part of the California SIP. However, in response
to the decision by the Ninth Circuit in Committee for a Better Arvin v.
EPA, discussed previously, the EPA has now proposed to approve the
current set of mobile source regulations for which waivers or
authorizations have been issued as a revision to the California SIP. 80
FR 69915 (November 12, 2015). We expect to take final action on
California's mobile source regulations prior to final action on the
2013 Ozone Plan.
    CARB's mobile source program extends beyond regulations that are
subject to the waiver or authorization process set forth in CAA section
209 to include standards and other requirements to control emissions
from in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses, gasoline and diesel fuel
specifications, and many other types of mobile sources. Generally,
these regulations have been submitted and approved as revisions to the
California SIP. See, e.g., 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012) (EPA approval of
standards and other requirements to control emissions from in-use
heavy-duty diesel-powered trucks).
    Section <IP_ADDRESS> of the 2013 Ozone Plan discusses the emissions
reductions from CARB's mobile source program and includes a table
(table 3-2) that lists all of the regulations adopted or amended by
CARB from 2000 through early 2012. While all of the listed measures
contribute to some degree to attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard in
the San Joaquin Valley, some are called out in particular as providing
significant emissions reductions relied upon for attainment of the
ozone standard under the 2013 Ozone Plan. These measures include the
in-use heavy-duty diesel-powered truck regulation, the in-use off-road
equipment regulation, and the advanced clean car program, among others.
The 2013 Ozone Plan concludes that, in light of the comprehensiveness
and stringency of CARB's mobile source program, all reasonable control
measures under CARB's jurisdiction are being implemented.
    With respect to TCMs, the 2013 Ozone Plan relies on the
documentation found in appendix C of the 2012 PM2.5 Plan to
conclude that all reasonably available control measures under the
jurisdiction of the Valley's MPOs are being implemented. Appendix C of
the 2012 PM2.5 Plan describes the efforts by the San Joaquin
Valley's eight MPOs to implement cost-effective transportation control
measures (TCMs). See section C.11.4 (p. C-33) of appendix C of the 2012
PM2.5 Plan. While no additional TCMs were identified by the
MPOs, the 2012 PM2.5 Plan includes a discussion of the on-
going implementation of a broad range of TCMs in the Valley. There is
also a discussion of the MPOs' Congestion Management and Air Quality
funding policy, which is a standardized process across the Valley for
distributing 20 percent of the Congestion Management and Air Quality
funds to projects that meet a minimum cost-effectiveness. During the
comment period for the 2012 PM2.5 Plan, a number of TCMs
were suggested by the public for consideration. See appendix I, pp. I-
10 to I-13 of the 2012 PM2.5 Plan. The feasibility of these
measures is discussed in the District's responses to comments. Id.
c. RACM Demonstration
    The 2013 Ozone Plan concludes that the RACM requirement is met
through implementation of the measures described above under the
District's jurisdiction, CARB's jurisdiction, and the MPOs'
jurisdiction for stationary and area sources, mobile sources, and TCMs,
respectively. The plan also concludes that to advance the attainment
date by one year (i.e., from 2017 to 2016) would require an additional
reduction of 12.1 tpd of NOX, and that there are no
reasonable measures that collectively would reduce emissions in the
Valley by that amount by 2016. In support for that conclusion, the plan
notes that about 90 percent of NOX emission reductions
occurring between the 2007 base year and the 2017 attainment year come
from mobile sources and that such reductions cannot be expedited
through additional District action because, generally, the District
does not have jurisdiction over mobile sources.
3. Proposed Action on RACM Demonstration
    The process followed by the District in the 2013 Ozone Plan to
identify RACM is generally consistent with the EPA's recommendations in
the General Preamble. The process included compiling a comprehensive
list of potential controls measures for sources of NOX and
VOC in the San Joaquin Valley. This list included measures suggested in
public comments on the 2013 Ozone Plan. See 2013 Ozone Plan, appendix
J. As part of this process, the District evaluated potential controls
for all relevant source categories for economic and technological
feasibility and provided justifications for the rejection of certain
identified measures. Id. After completing this evaluation, the District
committed to adopt and submit two measures (i.e., Rules 4308 and 4905),
which it has now done. See 2013 Ozone Plan, table 3-3, p. 3-10 and
table 2 above.
    We have reviewed the District's determination in the 2013 Ozone
Plan that its stationary and area source control measures represent
RACM for NOX and VOC. In our review, we also considered our
previous evaluations of the District's rules in connection with our
approval of the San Joaquin Valley RACT SIP demonstration for the 1997
8-hour ozone standard, our comments on the 2012 PM2.5 Plan,
and our comments on the District's RACT SIP demonstration for the 2008
8-hour ozone standard.\16\ We also reviewed measures suggested by the
public in comments on the 2013 Ozone Plan. Based on this review, we
believe that the District's rules provide for the implementation of
RACM for stationary and area sources of NOX and VOC.\17\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \16\ See 77 FR 1417 (January 10, 2012); EPA Region 9, Technical
Support Document for the EPA's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for the
California State Implementation Plan--EPA's Evaluation of the San
Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District's Reasonably
Available Control Technology (RACT) Demonstration for Ozone State
Implementation Plan (SIP), Adopted April 16, 2009 (dated August 29,
2011); letter dated October 19, 2012, from Kerry Drake, Associate
Director, Air Division EPA--Region 9 to Samir Sheikh, SJVUAPCD; and
letter dated June 4, 2014, from Andrew Steckel, Chief, Rules Office,
EPA Region 9 to Errol Villegas, Planning Manager, SJVUAPCD.
    \17\ A full list of the District's rules, including cites to our
most recent final or proposed rulemaking on each can be found in the
TSD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to mobile sources, we recognize CARB as a leader in
the development and implementation of stringent control measures for
on-road and off-road mobile sources. Its current program addresses the
full range of mobile sources in the San Joaquin Valley through
regulatory programs for both new and in-use vehicles. See 2013 Ozone
Plan, table 3-2 and appendix A of the TSD. With respect to
transportation controls, we note that the MPOs have a program to fund
cost-effective TCMs. See appendix C, p. C-33 of the 2012
PM2.5 Plan. Overall, we believe that CARB's and the MPOs'
programs provide for the implementation of RACM for NOX and
VOC from mobile sources in the San Joaquin Valley.
    Based on our review of the results of these RACM analyses, the
District's and CARB's adopted rules, we propose to find that there are,
at this time, no additional reasonably available measures that would
advance attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard in the San Joaquin
Valley. In the 2013 Ozone Plan, the District estimates that it would
take a reduction between of 12.1 tpd of NOX to advance
attainment from

2017 to 2016 in the San Joaquin Valley. See section 4.2 (p. 4-3). We
find that no reasonably available and unadopted measures identified in
the 2013 Ozone Plan, either individually or collectively, could deliver
this additional increment of reductions in 2016 because of the extent
to which the emissions inventory reflects mobile sources (see table 1
above) and the extent to which the mobile source inventory already
reflects CARB's emissions standards and other requirements for new and
in-use on-road and off-road vehicles and engines.
    For the foregoing reasons, we propose to find that the 2013 Ozone
Plan provides for the implementation of all RACM as required by CAA
section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and 51.1100(o)(17).

C. Rate of Progress Demonstration

1. Requirements for Rate of Progress Demonstrations
    CAA section 172(c) requires nonattainment area plans to provide for
reasonable further progress (RFP) which is defined in section 171(1) as
such annual incremental reductions in emissions as are required in part
D or may reasonably be required by the Administrator in order to ensure
attainment of the relevant ambient standard by the applicable date. CAA
sections 182(c)(2) and (e) require that ``Serious'' and above area SIPs
include ROP quantitative milestones that are to be achieved every 3
years after 1996 until attainment. For ozone areas classified as
Serious and above, section 182(c)(2) requires that the SIP must provide
for reductions in ozone-season, weekday VOC emissions of at least 3
percent per year net of growth averaged over each consecutive 3-year
period. This is in addition to the 15 percent reduction over the first
6-year period required by CAA section 182(b)(1) for areas classified as
moderate and above. The CAA requires that these milestones be
calculated from the 1990 inventory after excluding, among other things,
emission reductions from ``[a]ny measure related to motor vehicle
exhaust or evaporative emissions promulgated by the Administrator by
January 1, 1990'' and emission reductions from certain federal gasoline
volatility requirements. CAA section 182(b)(1)(B)-(D). The EPA has
issued guidance on meeting 1-hour ozone ROP requirements. See General
Preamble at 13516 and ``Guidance on the Post-1996 Rate-of-Progress Plan
and the Attainment Demonstration,'' EPA-452/R-93-015, EPA Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, February 18, 1994 (corrected).
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(C) allows for NOX reductions that
occur after 1990 to be used to meet the post-1996 ROP emission
reduction requirements, provided that such NOX reductions
meet the criteria outlined in the CAA and the EPA guidance. The
criteria require that: (1) The sum of all creditable VOC and
NOX reductions must meet the 3 percent per year ROP
requirement; (2) the substitution is on a percent-for-percent of
adjusted base year emissions for the relevant pollutant; and (3) the
sum of all substituted NOX reductions cannot be greater than
the cumulative NOX reductions required by the modeled
attainment demonstration. See General Preamble at 13517 and
``NOX Substitution Guidance,'' EPA Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, December 1993. Our guidance in the General
Preamble states that by meeting the specific ROP milestones discussed
above, the general RFP requirements in CAA section 172(c)(2) will also
be satisfied. General Preamble at 13518.
    The ROP demonstration requirement is a continuing applicable
requirement for the San Joaquin Valley ``Extreme'' 1-hour ozone
nonattainment area under the EPA's anti-backsliding rules that apply
once a standard has been revoked. See 40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and
51.1100(o)(4).
2. ROP Demonstration in the 2013 Ozone Plan
    Section 4.3.2 (beginning on page 4-5) of the 2013 Ozone Plan
provides a demonstration that the San Joaquin Valley meets the 2010,
2013, and 2016 ROP milestones and 2017 increment.\18\ We have
summarized the ROP demonstrations in table 3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \18\ In later 2014, i.e., after adoption and submittal of the
2013 Ozone Plan, CARB revised the state's Truck and Bus regulation
(see http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2014/truckbus14/truckbus14.htm).
The 2014 revisions resulted in a temporary emission reduction
disbenefit of approximately 5 tpd of NOX in the 2016 and
2017 milestone years in the San Joaquin Valley. See letter from
Sylvia Vanderspek, Chief, Air Quality Planning Branch, CARB, to
Matthew Lakin, Manager, Air Planning Office, EPA Region 9, dated
April 23, 2015. The EPA has determined that because the 2013 Ozone
Plan demonstrates that ROP milestones are met by a significant
margin in 2016 and 2017, even if the 5 tpd NOX disbenefit
was added back into the 2016 and 2017 baselines, the 2013 Ozone Plan
would still exceed the 2016 and 2017 ROP milestones by approximately
33% for both years.

                                     Table 3--San Joaquin ROP Demonstrations
                                                [Tpd or percent]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       2007            2010            2013            2016            2017
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            VOC Emission Calculations
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline VOC inventory..........           457.2           440.5           380.5             368           366.3
Non-creditable FMVCP/RVP          ..............             5.6             3.7             2.7             0.7
 adjustments....................
Adjusted baseline VOC inventory   ..............           451.6           447.9           445.2           444.5
 in baseline year (Line 1-Line
 2).............................
Basis for required VOC            ..............           451.6           407.3           367.9           334.1
 reductions.....................
RFP Percent Reduction Required    ..............              9%              9%              9%              3%
 from prior milestone...........
Target level....................  ..............           411.0           370.6           334.8           324.1
Apparent Shortfall..............  ..............            29.5             9.9            33.2            42.2
Forecasted Percent VOC shortfall  ..............            6.5%            2.2%            7.5%            9.5%
VOC percent shortfall previously  ..............              0%            6.5%            2.2%            7.5%
 addressed provided by NOX
 substitution...................
Actual VOC percent shortfall....  ..............            6.5%           -4.3%            5.2%            2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            NOX Emission Calculations
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline NOX inventory..........           484.9           368.2           316.0           259.2           247.1
Non-creditable FMVCP adjustments  ..............             4.9            -1.9             6.3             0.4
Adjusted baseline NOX inventory   ..............           480.0           481.9           475.6           475.2
 for milestones.................

Change since 2007...............  ..............           111.8           165.9           216.4           228.1
Forecasted Percent NOX            ..............           23.3%           34.4%           45.5%           48.0%
 creditable reductions since
 2007...........................
NOX percent previously used for   ..............              0%            6.5%            6.5%           11.7%
 VOC shortfall by NOX
 substitution...................
NOX percent available for VOC     ..............           23.3%           27.9%           39.0%           36.3%
 shortfall by NOX substitution
 and contingency................
NOX percent substitution needed   ..............            6.5%            0.0%            5.2%            2.0%
 for VOC shortfall..............
Forecasted NOX percent reduction  ..............           16.7%           27.9%           33.8%           34.2%
 surplus........................
Contingency measure reserve       ..............             Yes             Yes             Yes             Yes
 achieved?......................
ROP achieved?...................  ..............             Yes             Yes             Yes             Yes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2013 Ozone Plan, table 4-2 (page 4-6).

3. Proposed Action on the ROP Demonstration
    Based on our review of the ROP calculations in the 2013 Ozone Plan,
summarized in table 3 above, we conclude the 2013 Ozone Plan
demonstrates that sufficient emission reductions have or will be
achieved to meet the 2010, 2013, and 2016 ROP milestones and the 2017
increment. Therefore, we propose to approve the ROP demonstration in
the 2013 Ozone Plan as meeting the requirements of CAA section
172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2)(B), and 40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and 51.1100(o)(4).

D. Attainment Demonstration

1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstrations
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires states with ozone nonattainment
areas classified as ``Serious'' or above to submit plans that
demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by the applicable
attainment date. Under the CAA, as amended in 1990, the San Joaquin
Valley ``Extreme'' nonattainment area was to have attained the 1-hour
ozone standard by November 15, 2010. In 2011, we determined that the
San Joaquin Valley had failed to attain the standard by the 2010
attainment date. 76 FR 82133 (December 30, 2011). Given that the
original statutory attainment date had passed and the 1-hour ozone
standard had been revoked, in our 2012 final action withdrawing our
approval of the 2004 Ozone Plan and issuing findings of failure to
submit, we set a new attainment date by reference to CAA section
172(a)(2). 77 FR 70376, at 70377 (November 26, 2012), effective
November 26, 2012. Application of the attainment date formulation in
section 172(a)(2) means that the state was required to submit a revised
San Joaquin Valley plan demonstrating attainment of the 1-hour ozone
standard as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than five years
from the effective date of the findings of failure to submit, or, in
this case, no later than November 26, 2017.
    An attainment demonstration should include a control strategy that
identifies specific measures to reduce emissions and photochemical
modelling results showing that the emissions reductions from
implementation of the control strategy is sufficient to attain the
standard by the applicable attainment date. The attainment
demonstration requirement is a continuing applicable requirement for
the San Joaquin Valley ``Extreme'' 1-hour ozone nonattainment area
under the EPA's anti-backsliding rules that apply once a standard has
been revoked. See 40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and 51.1100(o)(12).
2. One-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration in the 2013 Ozone Plan
a. Control Strategy for Attainment of the 1-Hour Ozone Standard
    The 2013 Ozone Plan relies entirely on reductions from previously
adopted measures. Tables 3-1 and 3-2 in the 2013 Ozone Plan documents
District and State measures that contribute to attainment of the 1-hour
ozone standard in 2017. Although the 2013 Ozone Plan includes two
commitment measures (see table 3-3 in 2013 Ozone Plan), reductions from
those measures were not relied on for attainment. Moreover, the two
measures have been adopted and submitted to the EPA.
    The future year inventories, which include reductions from adopted
and creditable measures, were used in the 2013 Ozone Plan's modeling
analysis described in appendix E of the 2013 Ozone Plan. Based on the
modeling analysis, the District determined that the 1-hour ozone
standard could be attained in 2017. A summary of the base year (2007)
and 2017 attainment-year emissions inventories is shown in table 1
above. It reflects reductions of 238 tpd of NOX and 91 tpd
of VOCs from the 2007 base year emissions inventory. For a more
detailed comparison of the 2007 base year and 2017 attainment year
inventories, see appendix B of the 2013 Ozone Plan and the TSD for
today's action.
    For purposes of evaluating the 2013 Ozone Plan, all of the measures
relied on to satisfy the applicable control requirements are baseline
measures. As the term is used here, baseline measures are federal,
State, and District rules and regulations adopted prior by the end of
January 2012 (i.e., prior to the development of 2013 Ozone Plan) that
continue to achieve emissions reductions through the projected 2017
attainment year and beyond.\19\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \19\ These measures are typically rules that may have compliance
dates that occur after the adoption date of a plan and mobile source
measures that achieve reductions as older engines are replaced
through attrition (e.g., through fleet turnover). On December 31,
2014 and subsequent to the submittal of the 2013 Ozone Plan, the
State of California's Office of Administrative Law approved
revisions to CARB's Truck and Bus regulation (see http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2014/truckbus14/truckbus14.htm). The revisions
resulted in a temporary emission reduction disbenefit of
approximately 5 tpd of NOX in 2017. In an April 23, 2015
letter from Sylvia Vanderspek, Chief, Air Quality Branch, CARB to
Matt Lakin, Manager, Air Planning Office, EPA Region IX, the State
provides an adequate technical justification showing that the
demonstration of attainment in 2017 is not affected.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The District has adopted more than 50 prohibitory rules that limit
emissions of either VOC or NOX. These rules include controls
for a variety of sources including boilers, oil field and refinery
equipment, surface coatings operations, and open burning. The 2013
Ozone Plan lists many of these measures in table 3-1. Reductions from
these measures are incorporated into the future year baseline
inventories. Appendix C of the 2013 Ozone Plan includes inventory
information that allows for a comparison of 2007 rule-specific
emissions inventory data for stationary and area sources against future
year rule-specific inventories. The net

inventory impact of the rule reductions and growth is included in the
TSD for today's proposal. We have also provided in the TSD a list of
the District's prohibitory NOX and VOC rules and SIP
approval status.
    The state's baseline measures fall within two categories: Measures
for which the State has obtained a waiver or authorization of federal
pre-emption under CAA section 209 (``waiver'' measures) and those for
which the state is not required to obtain a waiver (``non-waiver''
measures). Non-waiver measures include: Improvements to California's
inspection and maintenance (I/M) program, SmogCheck; cleaner burning
gasoline and diesel regulations; and limits on the VOC content and
reactivity of consumer products. Table 3-2 of the 2013 Ozone Plan lists
many of the state's measures adopted since 2006 that are contributing
to attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard.
    Over the years, the EPA has approved the non-waiver measures and
amendments to those measures as part of the California SIP.
Historically, the EPA has allowed California to take credit for waiver
measures (to meet CAA SIP requirements including ROP and attainment
demonstrations) notwithstanding the fact that the regulations
themselves have not been submitted or approved into the California SIP.
However, in light of the Ninth Circuit's decision in Committee for a
Better Arvin v. EPA, as discussed above, CARB has submitted the most
recent set of waiver measures that contribute emissions reductions to
the state's attainment plans as part of the SIP, and the EPA has
proposed approval of the measures. 80 FR 69915 (November 12, 2015). We
anticipate final action on the CARB mobile source SIP submittal prior
to final action on the 2013 Ozone Plan.
    The 2013 Ozone Plan also includes reductions from federal measures.
These measures include, for example, the EPA's national emission
standards for heavy duty diesel trucks,\20\ certain new construction
and farm equipment,\21\ and locomotives.\22\ States are allowed to rely
on reductions from federal measures in attainment and ROP
demonstrations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ 66 FR 5001 (January 18, 2001). CARB estimates that
interstate trucks registered outside of California represent over 50
percent of the heavy duty trucks in California. See Table III-1 in
``Staff Report: Initial Statement of Reason for Proposed Rulemaking,
Proposed Regulation for In-Use, On-road Diesel Vehicles,''
California Air Resources Board (October 2008).
    \21\ Tier 2 and 3 non-road engines standards, 63 FR 56968
(October, 23 1998); Tier 4 diesel non-road engine standard, 69 FR
38958 (June 29, 2004).
    \22\ 63 FR 18978 (May 16, 1998) and 73 FR 37045 (June 30, 2008).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Air Quality Modeling in the 2013 Ozone Plan
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires SIPs for ozone nonattainment
areas to include a ``demonstration that the plan, as revised, will
provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable
attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on
photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined
by the Administrator, in the Administrator's discretion, to be at least
as effective.'' Air quality modeling is used to establish emissions
attainment targets, that is, the combination of emissions of ozone
precursors that the area can accommodate without exceeding the relevant
standard, and to assess whether the proposed control strategy will
result in attainment of that standard. The procedures for modeling
ozone as part of an attainment demonstration are contained in the EPA's
Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating
Attainment of Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone and
PM2.5 NAAQS and Regional Haze (``Modeling Guidance'').\23\
The Modeling Guidance recommends for a modeling protocol to be reviewed
by the EPA prior to performance of the modeling. The Guidance includes
recommendations for model input preparation, model performance
evaluation, use of the model output for the attainment demonstration,
and modeling documentation. Air quality modeling is performed using
meteorology and emissions from a base year, and the modeled
concentrations are compared to air quality monitoring data from that
year to evaluate model performance. Once the performance is determined
to be acceptable, future year emissions are simulated with the model.
The relative (or percent) change in modeled concentration due to future
emissions reductions provides a Relative Response Factor (RRF). For
each monitoring site, the site's RRF is applied to its monitored base
year design value to provide the future design value for comparison to
the NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance also recommends supplemental air
quality analyses, which may be used as part of a Weight of Evidence
(WOE) analysis. A WOE analysis assesses attainment by considering
evidence other than the main air quality modeling attainment test, such
as trends and additional monitoring and modeling analyses.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ ``Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for
Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone
and PM2.5 NAAQS and Regional Haze,'' EPA-454/B-07-002,
April 2007. Additional EPA modeling guidance can be found in the
``Guideline on Air Quality Models'' in 40 CFR part 51, appendix W.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Older guidance for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS was provided in Guideline
for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed Model; \24\ however,
much of its content is outdated. Most importantly, formerly
photochemical models were used in an absolute sense for the modeled
attainment test, whereas currently the EPA recommends that models be
used in a relative sense. That is, formerly the modeled concentration
due to future emissions (absolute model prediction) was used directly
to compare to the NAAQS. Currently, the EPA recommends that the
relative change in modeled concentration (RRF) due to future emission
reductions be used; this is applied to the monitored design value and
the result compared to the NAAQS. Given that the current guidance is
aimed at the 8-hour standard, whereas the older guidance is aimed at
the 1-hour standard but is outdated, the State has flexibility in the
approach to be used. Discussions between the EPA, CARB, and the
District resulted in the approach described in the Plan's Modeling
Protocol, which mainly followed the more recent Modeling Guidance, but
accommodated the form and level of the 1-hour standard and incorporated
model performance goals from the older 1-hour guidance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ ``Guideline for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed
Model,'' EPA-450/4-91-013, July 1991.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB performed the air quality modeling for the 2013 Ozone Plan,
with assistance from the District. The 2013 Ozone Plan's modeling
protocol is contained in appendix E (``Modeling Protocol''). This
protocol was reviewed by the EPA, and contains all of the elements
recommended in the Guidance, including selection of model, and modeling
period, modeling domain, and model boundary conditions and
initialization procedures; a thorough discussion of emission inventory
development and their spatial and temporal allocation; and other model
input preparation procedures, model performance evaluation procedures;
selection of days and other details for calculating RRFs; and
provisions for the archiving of and access to raw model inputs and
outputs. While some additional detail on the input meteorological data
could have been useful, overall the protocol adequately addresses all
of the expected elements.

    The modeling analysis uses the Community Multiscale Air Quality
(CMAQ) photochemical model, developed by the EPA. The SAPRC99 (State-
wide Air Pollution Research Center, 1999 version) chemical mechanism
was used in CMAQ, based on CARB's historical experience with it, its
favorable scientific review and good performance over the years. The
modeling incorporates routinely available meteorological and air
quality data collected during 2007, the base year for the 2013 Ozone
Plan. The WRF model (Weather and Research Forecasting model, from the
National Center for Atmospheric Research) was used to prepare
meteorological input for CMAQ. CMAQ and WRF are both recognized in the
Modeling Guidance as technically sound, state-of-the-art models. Air
quality modeling was performed for May through September, 2007, a
period that spans the ozone season in the San Joaquin Valley. The
overall air quality modeling domain includes the entire State of
California with 12 km resolution, and a nested domain of finer 4 km
resolution that covers the San Joaquin Valley. The overall
meteorological modeling covers California's neighboring states, and
major portions of the next outer ring of states, with 35 km resolution;
it has nested domains at 12 km and 4 km, with the latter, innermost
covering the entire State of California. The areal extent, and the
horizontal and vertical resolution used in these models were more than
adequate for modeling San Joaquin Valley ozone.
    Model performance information is provided in appendix F of the 2013
Ozone Plan in the form of time series and scatter plots of modeled
ozone compared to monitored ozone, for the May-September, 2007 period.
The time series show a good match between predicted and observed
concentrations. While there is some underprediction during the second
half of the period (mid-July through September), performance is
generally good, and the overall peaks were captured by the model.
Scatter plots also show good performance, with very few outliers.
Modeled values are generally within 20% of observations, and root-mean-
square error (RMSE) values are typically near 0.7, showing good
correlation between modeled and monitored concentrations. While current
Modeling Guidance does not prescribe specific performance goals, the
Modeling Protocol adopted goals from the older, 1991 EPA 1-hour ozone
modeling guidance, section 5.2: Unpaired highest prediction accuracy:
Within 20 percent; Normalized bias within 15 percent; and Gross error
of all pairs above 60 parts per billion (ppb) (i.e., 0.060 ppm) within
35 percent (appendix F, section 1.4.1). The Modeling Protocol mentions
evaluation of model performance within multiple geographic subregions,
as well as additional performance statistics and spatial plots for
ozone and precursor species, but these were not provided in the SIP
submittal. The CARB Staff Report stated that all the performance goals
were met. See CARB's ``Staff Report, San Joaquin Valley 2013 Plan for
the Federal 1-Hour Ozone Standard,'' dated November 8, 2013, page 8.
The EPA agrees that the model performance is adequate for the San
Joaquin Valley 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration.
    The 2013 Ozone Plan used a ``band-RRF'' approach for the use of
modeling results in the modeled attainment test. This a refinement of
the approach in the Modeling Guidance, and is described in appendix F
(``Modeling Approach and Results,'' section 1.4.1) of the 2013 Ozone
Plan, as well as in the Modeling Protocol and in a journal paper.\25\
The Modeling Guidance approach is briefly reviewed here before the
band-RRF approach is described. As mentioned above, in simplest terms,
an RRF is the relative model response to emissions changes, that is,
the ratio of future modeled concentration to base year modeled
concentration. Since the model provides concentrations for every grid
square, for every hour of the simulated period, in actually
implementing an RRF, a choice must be made of which particular model
concentrations should be included in the calculation. The Modeling
Guidance recommends that high concentration days selected from grid
cells near the monitor be used; these will be most relevant for
estimating the future design value at the monitor. Specifically, for
the 1997 0.08 ppm (80 ppb) 8-hour ozone NAAQS in effect at the time,
the Modeling Guidance recommends that the highest concentration among
grid cells within 15 km of the monitor be used to represent the
monitor, and that all modeled maximum daily 8-hour concentrations at or
above 085 ppb \26\ (0.085 ppm) be averaged. The RRF is the average for
future days divided by the average for base year days; this ratio
reflects the average response of high ozone concentrations near the
monitor to future emission changes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ Sarika Kulkarni, Ajith P. Kaduwela, Jeremy C. Avise, John
A. DaMassa & Daniel Chau (2014), ``An extended approach to calculate
the ozone relative response factors used in the attainment
demonstration for the National Ambient Air Quality Standards'',
Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 64:10, 1204-1213,
DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2014.936984.
    \26\ The 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS is actually 0.08 ppm;
concentrations of 84.999 ppb or below round to 80 and comply with
the NAAQS, and concentrations of 85.0 or higher exceed the NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2013 Ozone Plan band-RRF approach parallels the Modeling
Guidance, but differs in several specifics, especially in the choice of
concentration levels to include in calculating the RRF. The 2013 Ozone
Plan applied an initial performance screen: Only days that meet the
model performance criteria cited above were retained for the
calculation. For the choice of grid cell to represent the monitor, the
2013 Ozone Plan used the grid cell containing the monitor itself,
rather than the maximum cell within 15 km; this puts a somewhat greater
reliance on the spatial accuracy of the model, but is not necessarily
less conservative. The 2013 Ozone Plan's choice of concentration days
to include is more complex than in the Guidance. Instead of using an
average over all high concentration days, in the band-RRF approach
there is a different RRF for each 10 ppb-wide (0.010 ppm) band of ozone
concentrations; the RRF used for a particular monitored day is computed
from future and base year averages only within the concentration band
relevant for that day, rather than from all high days.\27\ This
refinement has the advantage of allowing the model response to vary
depending on the concentration, instead of assuming the relative
response is always the same, as the Modeling Guidance procedure does.
The Modeling Guidance acknowledges that there tends to be a greater
model response to emission changes at higher ozone concentrations
(Modeling Guidance, page 37), so the use of RRF bands is a reasonable
refinement. The use of band-RRFs requires that each day be scaled by
its corresponding RRF, and that the future design value be estimated
from those scaled values concentrations. This is different than the
Modeling

Guidance approach, in which a single RRF is applied to the monitored
design value itself. The ``design value'' for the 1-hour ozone standard
is nearly equivalent to the 4th highest concentration.\28\ In the 2013
Ozone Plan's approach, the 10 days with the highest observed
concentration were multiplied by their respective RRFs, and the 4th
highest resulting concentration was used as the predicted future design
value for the monitor. The inclusion of 10 candidate days accommodates
any shifts in the concentration rank of the days as the result of
controls; it ensures the inclusion of days that could contribute to the
post-control design value. Applying different RRFs to different days
and estimating the design value afterward is very similar to the EPA's
updated guidance procedure for PM2.5 attainment
demonstrations.\29\ The band-RRF approach is a refinement to the 8-hour
ozone approach recommended in the Modeling Guidance for the modeled
attainment test, and is adequate for the San Joaquin Valley 1-hour
ozone attainment demonstration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \27\ Specifically, a linear regression between observed and
modeled concentrations was used to choose a modeled concentration
for each observed day; that modeled concentration predicted from the
linear fit was then used to select a ppb band and the corresponding
RRF. This indirect procedure avoids quirks of individual days,
providing a typical model response appropriate for future
projections. It also avoids introducing any inconsistency and model
bias into the RRF calculation. If the observed value were used
directly to choose a band, and the model happened to underpredict on
that day, then the RRF, chosen on the basis of the higher observed
value, would be the model response appropriate for a higher ozone
concentration, rather than for the modeled base year concentration.
In short, it keeps both the RRF numerator and denominator both as
modeled values, consistent with the definition of an RRF.
    \28\ The 1-hour ozone NAAQS is met when the ``expected number of
days per calendar year with maximum hourly average concentrations
above 0.12 parts per million . . . is equal to or less than 1'' (40
CFR 50.9); 40 CFR part 50, appendix H describes the procedure for
calculating this, based on three calendar years. This is
approximately the same as allowing one exceedance per year over
three years, that is, the three highest values are allowed to exceed
0.12 ppm. Thus, the fourth highest concentration is a unbiased
single-year value to use for comparison to the NAAQS level in a
modeling context.
    \29\ ``Update to the 24 Hour PM2.5 NAAQS Modeled
Attainment Test,'' EPA memorandum dated June 28, 2011, from Tyler
Fox, Air Quality Modeling Group, EPA Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards. The updated guidance allowed for the shifting of
PM2.5 day ranks. A shift is possible since emission
controls affect PM2.5 species components differently, and
species composition may be different for different seasons: Control
could affect mainly winter days, with summer days little affected
and so becoming higher ranked. The 2013 Ozone Plan's RRF procedure
was carried out for the top 10 observed days. This accommodates
differences in ranking between the observed days and their
corresponding modeled days and bands, ensuring that days that were
not the highest before controls, but are so after control, are
available for the design value calculation. It also accommodates the
fact that applying controls may result in shifting in the ranks of
the days; the particular day that is 4th highest before controls may
not be the 4th highest post-control day. The 2013 Ozone Plan does
explicitly state whether such rank shifts actually occurred in
applying the band-RRF approach, but table 4 in appendix G of the
2013 Ozone Plan does not appear to show such shifts: The 2017 design
values remain sorted from high to low as are the 2007 design values.
Shifts might be expected to occur if a concentration near the bottom
of a band with a relatively small RRF was reduced more than a
concentration at the top of the next lower band.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    An additional difference between the 2013 Ozone Plan modeled
attainment test and the Modeling Guidance is that it uses only the
single 2005-2007 design value as the starting point, whereas for a 2007
base year the Modeling Guidance would recommend the average of the
three design values for 2005-2007, 2006-2008, and 2007-2009. It is not
clear how to use band-RRF approach in conjunction with this Guidance
recommendation, but presumably it would involve using ozone
observations from a longer period than 2005 through 2007. Using a
longer period might make for more stable design value estimates, less
subject to year-to-year meteorological variability; conversely it also
introduces some inconsistency given that emissions changes during a
longer period would generally be larger. The EPA estimated the effect
of using an alternative starting point by applying modeled percent
change in design value from the 2013 Ozone Plan to the 2006-2008 design
value, and to the three-design value average mentioned above. The
results were 120.2 and 119.6 ppb (0.1202 and 0.1196 ppm), respectively,
both slightly higher than the 2013 Ozone Plan's 119.3 ppb (0.1193 ppm),
but both less than the NAAQS-compliant value of 124 ppb (or 0.124 ppm,
which rounds to 0.12 ppm). Documentation on the rationale for the 2013
Ozone Plan choice of the 2005-2007 design value starting point would
have strengthened the support for the attainment demonstration, but
even in its absence, the EPA finds the procedure followed to be
adequate for the San Joaquin Valley 1-hour ozone attainment
demonstration.
    The final model results appear in chapter 2 of the 2013 Ozone Plan
(and are repeated in appendix F, section 1.4.2 ``Attainment
Demonstration''). These are tables of three-year design values for base
year 2007 and for the projected year 2017. The highest monitored 2007
design value was 135 ppb (0.135 ppm) at the Edison monitor. The highest
projected 2017 design value, accounting for emission reductions
occurring during 2007-2017 was 119.3 ppb (0.1193 ppm) at Edison
monitor. This is comfortably below the maximum 124 ppb (0.124 ppm)
consistent with NAAQS attainment. The next highest 2017 design value
was substantially less, 107.4 ppb (0.1074 ppm) at the Arvin monitor.
    The 2013 Ozone Plan contains a ``Weight of Evidence'' (WOE) section
in its appendix G. This section includes analyses of ambient
concentration and emission trends, and additional analyses that
strengthen the 2013 Ozone Plan's attainment demonstration conclusion
that NAAQS attainment will be achieved in 2017. The overall San Joaquin
Valley design value trend from 1994 through 2012 is downward, despite
some individual multi-year periods of little progress, and corroborates
the projection of attainment in 2017 (appendix G, figure 1, page G-2).
This pattern is also seen for individual monitoring site design values
trends (appendix G, figures 4-6 and 8-10, pages G-6--G-10). An
exception to this is the Fresno-Drummond site, for which the 2007-2011
trend is upward, though the number of NAAQS exceedance days remains
small (appendix G, figure 6, page G-7). Since VOC and especially
NOX emission trends have been steadily downward (appendix G,
figures 18-22, pages G-20--G-23), these stagnant periods are likely due
to unfavorable meteorology. The 2013 Ozone Plan also includes trends
adjusted for the effect of meteorology, based on a statistical analysis
that estimates what ozone would have been had wind speeds and
temperatures been more typical (appendix G, section G-2). Since a
statistical analysis requires numerous data points, 20-day averages
were examined rather than the design values, of which there are only
one per year. While this means that the results cannot be used to
directly adjust the design value trends, it is clear that for 2008-
2011, unfavorable meteorology resulted in higher ozone concentrations
(appendix G, figure 12, page G-14), and partly explains the slower
recent progress in the design values at some monitoring sites.
    The 2013 Ozone Plan includes NOX vs. VOC diagrams
showing the modeled sensitivity of ozone to reductions at each
monitoring site (appendix G, figure 23, pages G-34--G-39.). The
relatively flat slopes mean that ozone changes relatively little with
VOC reductions. While the relative effectiveness varies by site and
reduction amount, on a tpd basis NOX reductions
approximately 20 times as effective as VOC reductions; for the Edison
design value site, the relative effectiveness is closer to 7. In
conjunction with the pronounced downward NOX emission trend
referred to above, these findings provide confidence in the attainment
strategy.
    Finally, the 2013 Ozone Plan provides a supplemental attainment
demonstration using a traditional ``single RRF'' approach, in addition
to the ``band-RRF'' approach (appendix G, sections 6.1 and 6.2, pages
G-26--G-33). (As described above, in the former approach, described in
the Modeling Guidance for 8-hour ozone, a single RRF is used regardless
of the ozone concentration. In the latter approach there is a different
RRF for each ``band'' or range of ozone values.) The single

RRF approach is more conservative, giving slightly higher future
concentrations; this was expected since the RRF includes model results
from lower, less responsive, ozone levels. The single RRF approach
nevertheless also shows 2017 attainment.
    The various analyses provided in appendix G of the 2013 Ozone Plan
provide assurance in the attainment demonstration's conclusion that the
1-hr ozone NAAQS will be attained in 2017.
c. Evaluation of the Air Quality Modeling in the 2013 Ozone Plan
    The modeling showed that existing State and District control
measures are sufficient to attain the 1979 1-hour Ozone NAAQS by 2017
at all monitoring sites in the San Joaquin Valley. Given the extensive
discussion of modeling procedures, tests, and performance analyses
called for in the Modeling Protocol and the good model performance, the
EPA finds that the modeling is adequate for purposes of supporting the
1-hour ozone attainment demonstration.
3. Proposed Action on the Attainment Demonstration
    To approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, the EPA must make
several findings: First, we must find that the demonstration's
technical bases--emissions inventories and air quality modeling--are
adequate. As discussed above in section III.A, we propose to find that
the inventories in the 2013 Ozone Plan provide an appropriate basis for
the various other elements of the 2013 Ozone Plan, including the
attainment demonstration, and for the reasons discussed above, we find
the air quality modeling adequate to support the attainment
demonstration.
    Second, we must find that the SIP provides for expeditious
attainment through the implementation of all RACM. As discussed above
in section III.B, we are proposing to approve the RACM demonstration in
the 2013 Ozone Plan.
    Third, we must find that the emissions reductions that are relied
on for attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for
attainment. As stated previously in today's action, the EPA is
proposing to approve the 2013 Ozone Plan in part based on the
permanence and enforceability of the waiver measures flowing from the
approval of the measures as part of the SIP. Thus, the EPA will not
finalize approval of the 2013 Ozone Plan until the Agency takes final
action to approve the waiver measures as part of the California SIP.
Once that occurs, the 2013 Ozone Plan will rely entirely on adopted and
approved rules to achieve the emissions reductions needed to attain the
1-hour ozone standards in the San Joaquin Valley in 2017.

E. Contingency Measures

1. Requirements for Contingency Measures
    Section 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the CAA require that SIPs
contain contingency measures that will take effect without further
action by the state or the EPA if an area fails to attain the ozone
standard by the applicable attainment date (section 172(c)(9)) or fails
to meet an ROP milestone (section 182(c)(9)). This requirement is a
continuing applicable requirement for the San Joaquin Valley
``Extreme'' 1-hour ozone nonattainment area under the EPA's anti-
backsliding rules that apply once a standard has been revoked. See 40
CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and 51.1100(o)(13).
    The Act does not specify how many contingency measures are needed
or the magnitude of emission reductions that must be provided by these
measures. However, the EPA provided initial guidance interpreting the
contingency measure requirements in the General Preamble at 13510. Our
interpretation is based upon the language in sections 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9) in conjunction with the control measure requirements of
sections 172(c), 182(b) and 182(c)(2)(B), the reclassification and
failure to attain provisions of section 181(b) and other provisions. In
the General Preamble, the EPA indicated that states with moderate and
above ozone nonattainment areas should include sufficient contingency
measures so that, upon implementation of such measures, additional
emissions reductions of three percent of the emissions in the adjusted
base year inventory (or such lesser percentage what will cure the
identified failure) would be achieved in the year following the year in
which the failure is identified. These reductions should be beyond what
is needed to meet the attainment and/or ROP requirement. States may use
reductions of either VOC or NOX or a combination of both to
meet the contingency measure requirements. General Preamble at 13520,
footnote 6. The states must show that the contingency measures can be
implemented with minimal further action on their part and with no
additional rulemaking actions.
    In subsequent guidance,\30\ the EPA indicated that contingency
measures could be implemented early, i.e., prior to the milestone or
attainment date. Consistent with this policy, states are allowed to use
excess reductions from already adopted measures to meet the CAA
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) contingency measures requirement. This
is because the purpose of contingency measures is to provide extra
reductions that are not relied on for ROP or attainment that will
provide continued progress while the plan is being revised to fully
address the failure to meet the required milestone. Nothing in the CAA
precludes a state from implementing such measures before they are
triggered. This approach has been approved by the EPA in numerous SIPs.
See 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) (approval of the Indiana portion of the
Chicago area 15 percent ROP plan); 62 FR 66279 (December 18, 1997)
(approval of the Illinois portion of the Chicago area 15 percent ROP
plan); 66 FR 30811 (June 8, 2001) (proposed approval of the Rhode
Island post-1996 ROP plan); and 66 FR 586 and 66 FR 634 (January 3,
2001) (approval of the Massachusetts and Connecticut 1-hour ozone
attainment demonstrations). In the only adjudicated challenge to this
approach, the court upheld it. See LEAN v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir.
2004). 70 FR 71611, 71651.
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    \30\ G.T. Helms, Chief, Ozone/Carbon Monoxide Programs Branch,
EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, memorandum titled
``Early Implementation of Contingency Measures for Ozone and Carbon
Monoxide (CO) Nonattainment Areas,'' August 13, 1993.
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2. Contingency Measures in the 2013 Ozone Plan
    Contingency measure provisions are described in Section 4.4 of the
2013 Ozone Plan. To provide for contingency measures for failure to
meet the ROP milestones, the SIP relies on surplus NOX
reductions in the ROP demonstration. See 2013 Ozone Plan, table 4-2.
See also table 3 above.
    For the failure to attainment contingency measure, the 3 percent
reduction from the 2007 baseline can come from either VOC or
NOX. A three percent reduction from the 2007 baseline is
equivalent to 14.5 tpd of NOX. VOC emission reductions are
only 0.3 tpd between 2017 and 2018; thus, NOX emission
reductions are necessary to satisfy the attainment contingency measure
requirement. Fleet turnover in 2018 is expected to reduce
NOX emissions by 11.0 tpd. See 2013 Ozone Plan, appendix B,
Tables B-1 and B-2. In the 2013 Ozone Plan, the District relies on 3.5
tpd of NOX reductions from unspecified incentive programs
plus the NOX reductions from fleet turnover to achieve the
14.5 tpd of NOX necessary for the failure to attainment
contingency

measure. See 2013 Ozone Plan, table 4-4.
3. Proposed Action on the Contingency Measures
    Contingency measures for ROP. As discussed above in section III.C,
we are proposing to approve the 2013 Ozone Plan's ROP demonstration. As
seen in the second to last line on table 3 above (in the ROP
demonstration), there are sufficient excess reductions of
NOX in each milestone year beyond those needed to meet the
next ROP percent reduction requirement to provide the 3 percent of
adjusted baseline emissions reductions needed to meet the RFP
contingency measure requirement for 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2017.
Accordingly, we propose to approve the ROP contingency measures in the
2013 Ozone Plan under CAA section 182(c)(9) and 40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1)
and 51.1100(o)(13).
    Contingency measures for failure to attain. We are not proposing
action on the plan's attainment contingency measures at this time.
Attainment contingency measures are a distinct provision of the CAA
that we may act on separately from the attainment demonstration.

F. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers

1. Requirements for Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for
Boilers
    CAA section 182(e)(3) provides that SIPs must require each new,
modified, and existing electric utility and industrial and commercial
boiler that emits more than 25 tons per year (tpy) of NOX to
either burn as its primary fuel natural gas, methanol, or ethanol (or a
comparably low polluting fuel), or use advanced control technology
(such as catalytic control technology or other comparably effective
control methods). This requirement is a continuing applicable
requirement for the San Joaquin Valley ``Extreme'' 1-hour ozone
nonattainment area under the EPA's anti-backsliding rules that apply
once a standard has been revoked. See 40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and
51.1100(o)(6).
    Further guidance on this requirement is provided in the General
Preamble at 13523. According to the General Preamble, a boiler should
generally be considered as any combustion equipment used to produce
steam and generally does not include a process heater that transfers
heat from combustion gases to process streams. General Preamble at
13523. In addition, boilers with rated heat inputs less than 15 million
Btu (MMBtu) per hour which are oil or gas fired may generally be
considered de minimis and exempt from these requirements since it is
unlikely that they will exceed the 25 tpy NOX emission
limit. General Preamble at 13524.
2. Provisions for Controls on Boilers in the San Joaquin Valley
District Rules
    The 2013 Ozone Plan, which addresses the CAA section 182(e)(3)
requirements on page 4-10, states that District Rules 4306 and 4352
address NOX from affected boilers and that these rules meet
the requirements of the CAA.
    Rule 4306 ``Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters--Phase
3'' as revised on October 16, 2008, applies to any gaseous fuel or
liquid fuel fired boiler, steam generator, or process heater with a
total rated heat input greater than 5 million Btu per hour. The
emission limits in the rule (5 ppm to 30 ppm for gaseous fuels and 40
ppm for liquid fuels) cannot be achieved without the use of advanced
control technologies. See ``Alternative Control Techniques Document--
NOX Emissions from Industrial/Commercial/Institutional (ICI)
Boilers,'' Emissions Standards Division, EPA, March 1994; see also 76
FR 57846 at 57864-57865 (September 11, 2011) and 77 FR 12652 at 12670
(March 1, 2012) (proposed and final rules approving 2007 Ozone Plan for
the San Joaquin Valley). All units subject to Rule 4306 were required
to comply with the limits in the rule no later than December 1, 2008.
See Rule 4306, section 7.0. We most recently approved Rule 4306 as a
SIP revision at 75 FR 1715 (January 13, 2010).
    Rule 4352 ``Solid Fuel Fired Boilers, Steam Generators And Process
Heaters'' as revised December 15, 2011, applies to any boiler, steam
generator or process heater fired on solid fuel at a source that has a
potential to emit more than 10 tpy of NOX or VOC. All units
subject to Rule 4352 were required to comply with the rule's most
stringent limits no later than January 1, 2013. Rule 4352, section 5.1.
We most recently approved Rule 4352 into the California SIP at 77 FR
66548 (November 6, 2012). In an EPA action on the previous version of
Rule 4352, we determined that all of the NOX emission limits
in Rule 4352 effectively require operation of Selective Noncatalytic
Reduction (SNCR) control systems, which are comparably effective to
Selective Catalytic Reduction for the affected sources. SNCR also
appears to achieve NOX emission reductions comparable to
combustion of clean fuels at these types of boilers. We therefore
concluded that Rule 4352 satisfies the requirements of section
182(e)(3) for solid fuel-fired boilers in the San Joaquin Valley. 75 FR
60623 (October 10, 2010).
    New and modified boilers that will emit or have the potential to
emit 25 tpy or more of NOX are subject to the District's new
source permitting rule, Rule 2201 ``New and Modified Stationary Source
Review Rule.'' This rule requires new and modified source to install
and operate best available control technology/lowest achievable
emissions reductions technology. The EPA most recently approved Rule
2201 into the California SIP at 79 FR 55637 (September 17, 2014).
3. Proposed Finding on the Clean Fuel/Advanced Technology for Boilers
    Based on our review of, and previous approval of, the emission
limitations in the District's rules discussed above, we propose to find
that the 2013 Ozone Plan meets the clean fuels or advanced control
technology for boilers requirement in CAA section 182(e)(3) and 40 CFR
40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and 51.1100(o)(6).

G. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control
Measures To Offset Growth in Emissions From Growth in Vehicle Miles
Traveled or Number of Vehicle Trips

1. Requirements for VMT Emissions Offset Demonstrations
    Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act requires, in relevant part, the
state, if subject to its requirements for a given area, to ``submit a
revision that identifies and adopts specific enforceable transportation
control strategies and transportation control measures to offset any
growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles traveled or number of
vehicle trips in such area.'' \31\ This requirement is a continuing
applicable requirement for the San Joaquin Valley ``Extreme'' ozone
nonattainment area for the 1-hour and 1997 8-hour standards under the
EPA's

anti-backsliding rules that apply once a standard has been revoked. See
40 CFR 40 CFR 51.1105(a)(1) and 51.1100(o)(10).
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    \31\ CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three separate elements.
In short, under section 182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt
transportation control strategies and measures (1) to offset growth
in emissions from growth in VMT, and, (2) in combination with other
emission reduction requirements, to demonstrate RFP, and (3) to
demonstrate attainment. For more information on the EPA's
interpretation of the three elements of section 182(d)(1)(A), please
see 77 FR 58067, at 58068 (September 19, 2012)(proposed withdrawal
of approval of South Coast VMT emissions offset demonstrations). The
decision by the Ninth Circuit in the Association of Irritated
Residents case, and the EPA's related withdrawal of the San Joaquin
Valley approvals and finding of failure to submit, relate only to
the first element of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A)(i.e., the VMT
emissions offset requirement). Accordingly, this proposed action
relates only to the first element of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
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    As described above, in 2012, 77 FR 70376 (November 26, 2012), the
EPA withdrew the Agency's approvals of the VMT emissions offset
demonstrations for the San Joaquin Valley for the 1-hour ozone and 1997
8-hour ozone standards. In both instances, the EPA had based its
approvals on the Agency's long-standing interpretation of the VMT
emissions offset requirement that was rejected by the Ninth Circuit in
the Association of Irritated Residents case. In response to the Court's
decision, the EPA issued a memorandum titled ``Guidance on Implementing
Clean Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A): Transportation Control Measures and
Transportation Control Strategies to Offset Growth in Emissions Due to
Growth in Vehicle Miles Travelled'' (herein referred to as the ``August
2012 guidance'').\32\
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    \32\ Memorandum from Karl Simon, Director, Transportation and
Climate Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, to Carl
Edland, Director, Multimedia Planning and Permitting Division, EPA
Region 6, and Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA Region 9,
August 30, 2012.
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    The August 2012 Guidance discusses the meaning of the terms,
``transportation control strategies'' (TCSs) and ``transportation
control measures'' (TCMs), and recommends that both TCSs and TCMs be
included in the calculations made for the purpose of determining the
degree to which any hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in
VMT should be offset. Generally, TCSs is a broad term that encompasses
many types of controls including, for example, motor vehicle emission
limitations, inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, alternative
fuel programs, other technology-based measures, and TCMs, that would
fit within the regulatory definition of ``control strategy.'' See,
e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n). TCMs are defined at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as meaning
``any measure that is directed toward reducing emissions of air
pollutants from transportation sources. Such measures include, but are
not limited to those listed in section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act[,]''
and generally refer to programs intended to reduce the VMT, the number
of vehicle trips, or traffic congestion, such as programs for improved
public transit, designation of certain lanes for passenger buses and
high-occupancy vehicles (HOVs), trip reduction ordinances, and the
like.
    The August 2012 guidance explains how states may demonstrate that
the VMT emissions offset requirement is satisfied in conformance with
the Court's ruling. States are recommended to estimate emissions for
the nonattainment area's base year and the attainment year. One
emission inventory is developed for the base year, and three different
emissions inventory scenarios are developed for the attainment year.
For the attainment year, the state would present three emissions
estimates, two of which would represent hypothetical emissions
scenarios that would provide the basis to identify the ``growth in
emissions'' due solely to the growth in VMT, and one that would
represent projected actual motor vehicle emissions after fully
accounting for projected VMT growth and offsetting emissions reductions
obtained by all creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the August 2012 guidance
for specific details on how states might conduct the calculations.
    The base year on-road VOC emissions should be based on VMT in that
year and it should reflect all enforceable TCSs and TCMs in place in
the base year. This would include vehicle emissions standards, state
and local control programs such as I/M programs or fuel rules, and any
additional implemented TCSs and TCMs that were already required by or
credited in the SIP as of that base year.
    The first of the emissions calculations for the attainment year
would be based on the projected VMT and trips for that year, and assume
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited in the base year
inventory have been put in place since the base year. This calculation
demonstrates how emissions would hypothetically change if no new TCSs
or TCMs were implemented, and VMT and trips were allowed to grow at the
projected rate from the base year. This estimate would show the
potential for an increase in emissions due solely to growth in VMT and
trips. This represents a ``no action'' taken scenario. Emissions in the
attainment year in this scenario may be lower than those in the base
year due to the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually
being replaced through fleet turnover; however, provided VMT and/or
numbers of vehicle trips will in fact increase by the attainment year,
they would still likely be higher than they would have been assuming
VMT had held constant.
    The second of the attainment year's emissions calculations would
also assume that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited have
been put in place since the base year, but would also assume that there
was no growth in VMT and trips between the base year and attainment
year. This estimate reflects the hypothetical emissions level that
would have occurred if no further TCMs or TCSs had been put in place
and if VMT and trip levels had held constant since the base year. Like
the ``no action'' attainment year estimate described above, emissions
in the attainment year may be lower than those in the base year due to
the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually being
replaced by cleaner vehicles through fleet turnover, but in this case
they would not be influenced by any growth in VMT or trips. This
emissions estimate would reflect a ceiling on the attainment emissions
that should be allowed to occur under the statute as interpreted by the
Court because it shows what would happen under a scenario in which no
offsetting TCSs or TCMs have yet been put in place and VMT and trips
are held constant during the period from the area's base year to its
attainment year. This represents a ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario.
These two hypothetical status quo estimates are necessary steps in
identifying the target level of emissions from which states would
determine whether further TCMs or TCSs, beyond those that have been
adopted and implemented in reality, would need to be adopted and
implemented in order to fully offset any increase in emissions due
solely to VMT and trips identified in the ``no action'' scenario.
    Finally, the state would present the emissions that are actually
expected to occur in the area's attainment year after taking into
account reductions from all enforceable TCSs and TCMs that in reality
were put in place after the baseline year. This estimate would be based
on the VMT and trip levels expected to occur in the attainment year
(i.e., the VMT and trip levels from the first estimate) and all of the
TCSs and TCMs expected to be in place and for which the SIP will take
credit in the area's attainment year, including any TCMs and TCSs put
in place since the base year. This represents the ``projected actual''
attainment year scenario. If this emissions estimate is less than or
equal to the emissions ceiling that was established in the second of
the attainment year calculations, the TCSs or TCMs for the attainment
year would be sufficient to fully offset the identified hypothetical
growth in emissions.
    If, instead, the estimated projected actual attainment year
emissions are still greater than the ceiling which was established in
the second of the attainment year emissions calculations, even after
accounting for post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the state would need
to adopt and implement additional TCSs or TCMs to further offset the

growth in emissions and bring the actual emissions down to at least the
``had VMT and trips held constant'' ceiling estimated in the second of
the attainment year calculations, in order to meet the VMT offset
requirement of section 182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the Court.
2. Revised San Joaquin Valley VMT Emissions Offset Demonstrations
    For the revised San Joaquin Valley VMT emissions offset
demonstrations, the State used EMFAC2011, the latest EPA-approved motor
vehicle emissions model for California. The EMFAC2011 model estimates
the on-road emissions from two combustion processes (i.e., running
exhaust and start exhaust) and four evaporative processes (i.e., hot
soak, running losses, diurnal losses, and resting losses). The
EMFAC2011 model combines trip-based VMT data from the eight San Joaquin
Valley MPOs (e.g., Council of Fresno County Governments), starts data
based on household travel surveys, and vehicle population data from the
California Department of Motor Vehicles. These sets of data are
combined with corresponding emission rates to calculate emissions.
    Emissions from running exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and
running losses are a function of how much a vehicle is driven. As such,
emissions from these processes are directly related to VMT and vehicle
trips, and the State included emissions from them in the calculations
that provide the basis for the revised San Joaquin Valley VMT emissions
offset demonstrations. The State did not include emissions from resting
loss and diurnal loss processes in the analysis because such emissions
are related to vehicle population, not to VMT or vehicle trips, and
thus are not part of ``any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle
miles traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such area'' (emphasis
added) under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
    The revised San Joaquin Valley VMT emissions offset demonstrations
address both the 1-hour ozone standard and the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard and include two different ``base year'' scenarios: 1990, for
the purposes of the VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 1-hour
ozone standard, and 2002, for the purposes of the VMT emissions offset
demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. The ``base year'' for
VMT emissions offset demonstration purposes should generally be the
same ``base year'' used for nonattainment planning purposes. In 2012,
the EPA approved the 2002 base year inventory for the San Joaquin
Valley for the purposes of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, 77 FR 12652,
at 12670 (March 1, 2012), and thus, the State's selection of 2002 as
the base year for the revised San Joaquin Valley VMT emissions offset
demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard is appropriate. With
respect to the 1-hour ozone standard, the attainment demonstration in
the 2013 Ozone Plan relies on a base year of 2007, rather than 1990;
however, the State's selection of 1990 as the base year for the VMT
offset demonstration is appropriate because 1990 was used as the base
year for 1-hour ozone SIP planning purposes under the CAA Amendments of
1990, which established, among other requirements, the VMT emissions
offset requirement in section 182(d)(1)(A).
    The demonstrations also include the previously described three
different attainment year scenarios (i.e., no action, VMT offset
ceiling, and projected actual) but the attainment year differs between
the two demonstrations. Year 2017 was selected as the attainment year
for the revised VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 1-hour ozone
standard, and year 2023 was selected as the attainment year for the
revised demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. For the 1997
8-hour ozone standard, the State's selection of 2023 is appropriate
given that the approved San Joaquin Valley 1997 8-hour ozone plan
demonstrates attainment by the applicable attainment date of June 15,
2024 based on the 2023 controlled emissions inventory. See 76 FR 57846,
at 57856-57861 (September 16, 2011) and 77 FR 12652, at 12670 (March 1,
2012).
    The San Joaquin Valley 2013 Ozone Plan, which includes the revised
VMT emissions offset demonstrations in appendix D, provides a
demonstration of attainment by 2017. The revised San Joaquin Valley 1-
hour ozone attainment demonstration thus provides a demonstration of
attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard in the San Joaquin Valley by
2017 based on the controlled 2017 emissions inventory. As described in
section III.D of this document, the EPA is proposing to approve 2017 as
the attainment year for the 1-hour ozone standard in the San Joaquin
Valley.\33\ Based on the proposed approval of 2017 as the attainment
year for the San Joaquin Valley for the 1-hour ozone standard, we find
CARB's selection of year 2017 as the attainment year for the revised
VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard to be
acceptable. For additional background and justification regarding the
2017 attainment year, please see section III.D in today's notice.