5.     Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS SPPD expert .
    6.     Percent reductions and plants to receive reductions based on recommendations by rule lead engineer, and are consistent with the reference:  EPA, 2007a
    7.     Percent reductions recommended are determined from the existing plant estimated baselines and estimated reductions as shown in the Federal Register Notice for the rule.  SO2 percent reduction are computed by 6,147/30,783 = 20% and PM10 and PM2.5 reductions are computed by 3,786/13,588 = 28%
    8.     Same approach as used in the 2006 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), which estimated reductions of "PM emissions by 10,538 tpy, a reduction of about 62%."  Used same list of plants as were identified based on tonnage and SCC from CAIR: http://www.envinfo.com/caain/June04updates/tiop_fr2.pdf
    9.     Except for dairy cows and turkeys (no growth), based on animal population growth estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute.  See Section 3.2.1.
    10.     Growth and Decline in woodstove types based on industry trade group data, See Section.
    11.     VOC emission ratios of year 2016 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020) -specific from year 2005 from the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) results for onroad refueling including activity growth from VMT, Stage II control programs at gasoline stations, and phase in of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls.
    12.     VOC and benzene emissions for year 2016 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020) from year 2002 from MSAT2 rule (EPA, 2007b)
    13.     Data files for the cement sector provided by Elineth Torres, the EPA-SPPD, from the analysis done for the Cement NESHAP:  The ISIS documentation and analysis for the cement NESHAP/NSPS is in the docket of that rulemaking- docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-005.  The Cement NESHAP is in the Federal Register: September 9, 2010 (Volume 75, Number 174, Page 54969-55066
    14.     New York NOX and VOC reductions obtained from Appendix J in NY Department of Environmental Conservation Implementation Plan for Ozone (February 2008): http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf.  See Section 3.2.6.
    15.     Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf
    16.     The 2008 data used came from Illinois' submittal of 2008 emissions to the NEI.
    17.     Based on available, enforceable state sulfur rules as of November, 2010: http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf , http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf , http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html , http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/new-york-mandates-cleaner-heating-oil/
    18.     VOC reductions in Connecticut and Virginia obtained from Transport Rule comments.

Onroad mobile and nonroad mobile controls
(list includes all key mobile control strategies but is not exhaustive)[a]
National Onroad Rules:
Tier 2 Rule:  Signature date February, 2000
2007 Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule:  February, 2009
Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule (MSAT2):  February, 2007
Renewable Fuel Standard:  March, 2010
all
1
Local Onroad Programs:
National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV):  March, 1998
Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) LEV Program:  January,1995
VOC
2
National Nonroad Controls:
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4:  June, 2004
Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large-Spark Ignition Engines and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land Based): "Pentathalon Rule":  November, 2002
Clean Bus USA Program:  October, 2007
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder:  October, 2008
all
3,4,5
Aircraft:
Itinerant (ITN) operations at airports to year 2012 and year 2014
all
6
Locomotives:
Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4:  June 2004
Locomotive Emissions Final Rulemaking, December 17, 1997
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine:  May 2008
all
EPA, 2009; 3; 4; 5
Commercial Marine:
Category 3 marine diesel engines Clean Air Act and International Maritime Organization standards (April, 30, 2010)  - also includes Transport Rule comments.
EIA fuel consumption projections for diesel-fueled vessels
OTAQ ECA C3 Base 2020 inventory for residual-fueled vessels
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4
Emissions Standards for Commercial Marine Diesel Engines, December 29, 1999
Tier 1 Marine Diesel Engines, February 28, 2003
all
7, 3; EPA, 2009
   a.     These control programs are the same as were used in the Proposed Transport Rule except for the C3 marine standards of April 2010, which are included in the Toxics Rule but were not included in the Proposed Transport Rule.
APPROACHES/REFERENCES  -  Mobile Sources

    1.     http://epa.gov/otaq/hwy.htm
    2.     Only for states submitting these inputs:  http://www.epa.gov/otaq/lev-nlev.htm
    3.     http://www.epa.gov/nonroad-diesel/2004fr.htm
    4.     http://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus/
    5.     http://www.epa.gov/otaq/marinesi.htm
    6.     Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System, December 2008: http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp
    7.     http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm

Stationary source projections:  EGU sector (ptipm)
The future-year data for the ptipm sector used in the air quality modeling were created by version 4.10 (v4.10) of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkt/progsregs/epa-ipm/index.html).  The IPM is a multiregional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. electric power sector.  Version 4.10 reflects state rules and consent decrees through December 1, 2010 and incorporates information on existing controls collected through the Information Collection Request (ICR), and information from comments received on the IPM-related Notice of Data Availability (NODA) published on September 1, 2010.  IPM v4.10 Final included the addition of over 20 GW of existing Activated Carbon Injection (ACI) reported to the EPA via the ICR.  Units with SO2 or NOX advanced controls (e.g., scrubber, SCR) that were not required to run for compliance with Title IV, New Source Review (NSR), state settlements, or state-specific rules were modeled by IPM to either operate those controls or not based on economic efficiency parameters.

Updates to IPM 4.10 (with respect to the version released in the IPM NODA version) include adjustments to assumptions regarding the performance of acid gas control technologies, new costs imposed on fuel-switching (e.g., bituminous to sub-bituminous), correction of lignite availability to some plants, incorporation of additional planned retirements, a more inclusive implementation of the scrubber upgrade option, and the availability of a scrubber retrofit to waste-coal fired fluidized bed combustion units without an existing scrubber.  Further details on the future-year EGU emissions inventory used for this rule can be found in the incremental documentation of the IPM v.4.10 platform, available at http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/BaseCasev410.html.  Note that the Transport Rule future-year base cases do not include the Toxics Rule, which was proposed on March 16, 2011.  In addition, the Boiler MACT was not represented in the final Transport Rule modeling because the rule was not final at the time the modeling was performed.

IPM is run in 5 year increments beyond year 2015.  IPM results were generated for 2012 and 2015.  The IPM 2015 results are valid for representing 2014, 2015, and 2016.  As explained in the Transport Rule IPM TSD, additional steps were taken to ensure that the results were valid for use in a 2014, 2015 (or 2016) model run.

Directly emitted PM emissions (i.e., PM2.5 and PM10) from the EGU sector are computed via a post processing routine which applies emission factors to the IPM-estimated fuel throughput based on fuel, configuration and controls to compute the filterable and condensable components of PM.  This methodology is documented in the IPM TSD.
Stationary source projections:  non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, afdust)
To project U.S. stationary sources other than the ptipm sector, we applied growth factors and/or controls to certain categories within the ptnonipm, nonpt, ag and afdust platform sectors.  This subsection provides details on the data and projection methods used for these sectors.  In estimating future-year emissions, we assumed that emissions growth does not track with economic growth for many stationary non-IPM sources.  This "no-growth" assumption is based on an examination of historical emissions and economic data.  While we are working toward improving the projection approach in future emissions platforms, we are still using the no-growth assumption for the 2005, v4.2 platform.  More details on the rationale for this approach can be found in Appendix D of the Regulatory Impact Assessment for the PM NAAQS rule (EPA, 2006b).

The starting point was the emission projections done for the 2005v4 platform for the Proposed Transport Rule.  The 2012 and 2014 projection factors developed for the Transport Rule Proposal (see http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#transport) were updated for these 2012 and 2014 baseline projections.  Several additional National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) were promulgated since emission projections were done for the Proposed Transport Rule, and these were included for the 2012 and 2014 base cases.  Also included in the 2012 and 2014 base cases are numerous future-year projection data from the Transport Rule comments; these data are described in the following sections.

Year-specific projection factors for years 2012 and 2014 were used for creating the 2012 and 2014 base cases unless noted otherwise.  Growth factors (and control factors) are provided in the following sections where feasible.  However, some sectors used growth or control factors that varied geographically and their contents could not be provided in the following sections (e.g., gasoline distribution varies by county and pollutant and has thousands of records).  If the growth or control factors for a sector are not provided in a table in this document, they are available as a "projection" or "control" packet for input to SMOKE on the v4.2 platform website (see the end of Section Error! Reference source not found.).
	Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)
Growth in ammonia (NH3) and dust (PM10 and PM2.5) emissions from livestock in the ag and afdust and ptnonipm sectors was based on projections of growth in animal population.  While there are a very small amount of livestock emissions in the ptnonipm sector as compared to the ag sector, the livestock growth projection packet was inadvertently not applied to the ptnonipm that sector.  This results in an underestimate  of NH3 in the ptnonipm sector of roughly 1,160 tons in 2012 and 1,390 tons in 2014 (primarily in Kansas and Minnesota for which the NH3 were reported at specific farms in the point source inventory), and for PM2.5 the ptnonipm sector underestimates are 3 tons in both 2012 and 2014.  These omissions are expected to have a negligible impact on the air quality PM and ozone results and these omissions were made in both the future base case and Transport Rule policy case.

Table 4-2 provides the growth factors from the 2005 base-case emissions to 2012 and 2014 for animal categories applied to the ag and afdust sectors for livestock-related SCCs.  For example, year 2014 beef emissions are 1.7% larger than the 2005 base-case emissions.  Except for dairy cows and turkey production, the animal projection factors are derived from national-level animal population projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute (FAPRI).  For dairy cows and turkeys, we assumed that there would be no growth in emissions.  This assumption was based on an analysis of historical trends in the number of such animals compared to production rates.  Although productions rates have increased, the number of animals has declined.  Thus, we do not believe that production forecasts provide representative estimates of the future number of cows and turkeys; therefore, we did not use these forecasts for estimating future-year emissions from these animals.  In particular, the dairy cow population is projected to decrease in the future as it has for the past few decades; however, milk production will be increasing over the same period.  Note that the ammonia emissions from dairies are not directly related to animal population but also nitrogen excretion.  With the cow numbers going down and the production going up we suspect the excretion value will be changing, but we assumed no change because we did not have a quantitative estimate.

The inventory for livestock emissions used 2002 emissions values therefore, our projection method projected from 2002 rather than from 2005.

Appendix E in the 2002v3 platform documentation provides the animal population data and regression curves used to derive the growth factors:  http://www.epa.gov/scram001/reports/Emissions%20TSD%20Vol2_Appendices_01-15-08.pdf.  Appendix F in the same document provides the cross references of livestock sources in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm sectors to the animal categories in Table 4-2.
Table 4-2.  Growth factors from year 2005 to future years for Animal Operations
Animal Category
                              Projection Factors

                                     2012
                                     2014
Dairy Cow
1.000
1.000
Beef
1.014
1.017
Pork
1.060
1.071
Broilers
1.230
1.275
Turkeys
1.000
1.000
Layers
1.160
1.193
Poultry Average
1.178
1.214
Overall Average
1.0623
1.075
	Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt)
We projected residential wood combustion emissions based on the expected increase in the number of low-emitting wood stoves and the corresponding decrease in other types of wood stoves.  As newer, cleaner woodstoves replace older, higher-polluting wood stoves, there will be an overall reduction of the emissions from these sources.  The approach cited here was developed as part of a modeling exercise to estimate the expected benefits of the woodstoves change-out program (http://www.epa.gov/burnwise).  Details of this approach can be found in Section 2.3.3 of the PM NAAQS Regulatory Impact Analysis (EPA, 2006b).

The specific assumptions we made were:
   # Fireplaces, SCC=2104008001: increase 1%/year
   # Old woodstoves, SCC=2104008002,<PHONE_NUMBER>, or<PHONE_NUMBER>: decrease 2%/year
   # New woodstoves, SCC=2104008003,<PHONE_NUMBER>,<PHONE_NUMBER>,<PHONE_NUMBER>,<PHONE_NUMBER> or<PHONE_NUMBER>: increase 2%/year

For the general woodstoves and fireplaces category (SCC<PHONE_NUMBER>) we computed a weighted average distribution based on 19.4% fireplaces, 71.6% old woodstoves, 9.1% new woodstoves using 2002v3 Platform (these emissions have not been updated for the 2005v4 platform used for the Transport Rule Proposal 2005v4) emissions for PM2.5.  These fractions are based on the fraction of emissions from these processes in the states that did not have the "general woodstoves and fireplaces" SCC in the 2002v3 NEI.  This approach results in an overall decrease of 1.056% per year for this source category.

Table 4-3 presents the projection factors used to project the 2005 base case (2002 emissions) for residential wood combustion.
Table 4-3.  Projection Factors for growing year 2005 Residential Wood Combustion Sources
SCC
SCC Description
                              Projection Factors

                                     2012
                                     2014
2104008000
Total: Woodstoves and Fireplaces
                                    0.8944
                                    0.8733
2104008001
Fireplaces: General
                                     1.10
                                     1.12
2104008070
Outdoor Wood Burning Equipment

2104008002
Fireplaces: Insert; non-EPA certified
                                     0.80
                                     0.76
2104008010
Woodstoves: General

2104008051
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Non-EPA certified

2104008003
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; non-catalytic
                                     1.20
                                     1.24
2104008004
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; catalytic

2104008030
Catalytic Woodstoves: General

2104008050
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: EPA certified

2104008052
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Low Emitting

2104008053
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Pellet Fired

	Gasoline Stage II growth and control (nonpt, ptnonipm)
Emissions from Stage II gasoline operations in the 2005 base case are contained in both nonpt and ptnonipm sectors.  The only SCC in the nonpt inventory used for gasoline Stage II emissions is<PHONE_NUMBER> (Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage II: Total).  The following SIC and SCC codes are associated with gasoline Stage II emissions in the ptnonipm sector:

   # SIC 5541 (Automotive Dealers & Service Stations, Gasoline Service Stations, Gasoline service stations)
   # SCC 40600401 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Vapor Loss w/o Controls)
   # SCC 40600402 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Liquid Spill Loss w/o Controls)
   # SCC 40600403 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Vapor Loss w/o Controls)
   # SCC 40600499 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Not Classified

We used a consistent approach across nonpt and ptnonipm to project these gasoline stage II emissions.  The approach involved computing state-level VOC-specific projection factors from the state-level MOVES2010-based results for onroad refueling, using ratios of future - year 2012 and 2014 refueling emissions to 2005 base-case emissions.  The approach accounts for three elements of refueling growth and control: (1) activity growth (due to VMT growth as input into MOVES2010), (2) emissions reductions from Stage II control programs at gasoline stations, and (3) emissions reductions resulting from the phase-in over time of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls.  We assumed that all areas with Stage II controls in 2005 continue to have Stage II controls in 2012 and 2014.  This approach is an update from the 2005v4 platform projections in the Proposed Transport Rule; in that platform, NMIM refueling projections were used instead of MOVES2010.

We computed VOC, benzene and naphthalene projection factors at a county-specific, annual resolution as shown below; note that naphthalene, while provided by MOVES2010, is not used in the Transport Rule:

	PF_VOC[state, future year] = VOC_RFL[state, future year]/VOC_RFL[state, 2005],
	PF_BENZENE[state, future year] = BENZENE_RFL[state, future year]/ BENZENE _RFL[state, 2005], and
	PF_NAPHTHALENE[state, future year] = PF_VOC[state, future year]

where VOC_RFL is the VOC refueling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010, and
      BENZENE_RFL is the BENZENE refueling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010

We applied these projection factors to both nonpt and ptnonipm sector gasoline stage II sources.

Chemical speciation uses certain VOC HAPs for some sources, specifically, benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, and methanol (BAFM).  The VOC HAPs are used for sources that have consistent VOC and VOC HAPs using various criteria as described in the Section<IP_ADDRESS>, and these sources are called "integrated" sources.  The nonpoint gasoline stage II emissions are an integrated source, and so the VOC HAPs are also projected based on ratios of future-year and base-year VOC.  The only two VOC HAPs emitted from refueling are benzene and naphthalene, and both of these were projected consistently with VOC.  However, naphthalene was not used in the chemical speciation (it is not B,A,F or M) and was therefore not used for this effort.  Benzene was used as part of the speciation for the nonpt sector gasoline stage II sources.  The ptnonipm is a "no-integrate" sector, so ptnonipm gasoline stage II sources did not use the projected benzene as part of the speciation, but rather used VOC speciation to estimate benzene.
	Portable fuel container growth and control (nonpt)
We obtained future-year VOC emissions from Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs) from inventories developed and modeled for the EPA's MSAT2 rule (EPA, 2007a).  The 10 PFC SCCs are summarized below (note that the full SCC descriptions for these SCCs include "Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage" as the beginning of the description).

   *<PHONE_NUMBER>	Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Permeation
   *<PHONE_NUMBER>	Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Evaporation
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Spillage During Transport
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Permeation
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Evaporation
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Spillage During Transport
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement
   *<PHONE_NUMBER> 	Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage

Additional information on the PFC inventories is available in Section 2.2.3 of the documentation for the 2002 Platform (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2002).

The future-year emissions reflect projected increases in fuel consumption, state programs to reduce PFC emissions, standards promulgated in the MSAT2 rule, and impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on gasoline volatility.  Future-year emissions for PFCs were available for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030.  In creating the inventories for 2012 and 2014, we linearly interpolated year 2010 and year 2015 inventories.  Benzene and other VOC HAP future-year PFC emissions were also included in the interpolation.  Benzene was used in VOC speciation for the air quality model through the modification of VOC speciation profiles calculations (no other BAFM HAPs are emitted from PFCs).

	Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)
As with the 2005v4 platform, aircraft emissions are contained in the ptnonipm inventory.  These 2005 point-source emissions are projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on itinerant (ITN) operations at airports.  The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take-offs whereby the aircraft leaves the airport vicinity and lands at another airport, or aircraft landings whereby the aircraft has arrived from outside the airport vicinity.  We used projected ITN information available from the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System: http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp (publication date December 2008).  This information is available for approximately 3,300 individual airports, for all years up to 2025.  We aggregated and applied this information at the national level by summing the airport-specific (U.S. airports only) ITN operations to national totals by year and by aircraft operation, for each of the four available operation types: commercial, general, air taxi, military.  We computed growth factors for each operation type by dividing future-year ITN by 2005-year ITN.  We assigned factors to inventory SCCs based on the operation type.

The methods that the FAA used for developing the ITN data in the TAF are documented in:
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2009-2025/media/2009%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf

Table 4-4 provides the national growth factors for aircraft; all factors are applied to year 2005 emissions.  For example, year 2012 commercial aircraft emissions are 1.9% higher than year 2005 emissions.

Table 4-4.  Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to future years
SCC
SCC Description
                               Projection Factor

                                     2012
                                     2014
2275001000
Military aircraft
                                     0.967
                                     0.968
2275020000
Commercial aircraft
                                     1.019
                                     1.066
2275050000
General aviation
                                     0.962
                                     0.977
2275060000
Air taxi
                                     0.872
                                     0.897
27501015
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5
                                     0.967
                                     0.968
27502001
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Commercial;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
                                     1.019
                                     1.066
27502011
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Commercial;Jet Engine: Jet A
                                     1.019
                                     1.066
27505001
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
                                     0.962
                                     0.977
27505011
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Jet Engine: Jet A
                                     0.962
                                     0.977
27601014
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-4
                                     0.967
                                     0.968
27601015
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5
                                     0.967
                                     0.968

We did not apply growth factors to any point sources with SCC 27602011 (Internal Combustion Engines; Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust; Commercial; Jet Engine: Jet A) because the facility names associated with these point sources appeared to represent industrial facilities rather than airports.  This SCC is only in one county, Santa Barbara, California (State/County FIPS 06083).

None of our aircraft emission projections account for any control programs.  We considered the NOX standard adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) in February 2004, which is expected to reduce NOX by approximately 2% in 2015 and 3% in 2020.  However, this rule has not yet been adopted as an EPA (or U.S.) rule; therefore, the effects of this rule were not included in the future-year emissions projections.
Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures (ptnonipm, nonpt)
We applied emissions reduction factors to the 2005 emissions for particular sources in the ptnonipm and nonpt sectors to reflect the impact of stationary-source control programs including consent decrees, settlements, and plant closures.  Some of the controls described in this section were obtained from comments on the Transport Rule proposal.  Here we describe the contents of the controls and closures for the 2012 and 2014 base cases.  Detailed summaries of the impacts of the control programs are provided in Appendix D.

Controls from the NOX SIP call were assumed to have been implemented by 2005 and captured in the 2005 base case (2005v2 point inventory).  This assumption was confirmed by review of the 2005 NEI that showed reductions from Large Boiler/Turbines and Large Internal Combustion Engines in the Northeast states covered by the NOx SIP call.  The future-year base controls consist of the following:

   * We did not include MACT rules where compliance dates were prior to 2005, because we assumed these were already reflected in the 2005 inventory.  The EPA OAQPS Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD) provided all controls information related to the MACT rules, and this information is as consistent as possible with the preamble emissions reduction percentages for these rules.
   * Various emissions reductions from the Transport Rule comments, including but not limited to: fuel switching at units, shutdowns, future-year emission limits, ozone SIP VOC controls for some sources in Virginia and Connecticut, and state and local control programs.
   * Evolutionary information gathering of plant closures (i.e., emissions were zeroed out for future years) were also included where information indicated that the plant was actually closed after the 2005 base year and prior to Transport Rule modeling that began in the fall of 2010.  We also applied unit and plant closures received from the Transport Rule comments.  However, plants projected to close in the future (post-2010) were not removed in the future years because these projections can be inaccurate due to economic improvements.  We also applied cement kiln (unit) and cement plant closures discussed later in Section <IP_ADDRESS>.  More detailed information on the overall state-level impacts of all control programs and projection datasets, including units and plants closed in the 2012 and 2014 base-case ptnonipm inventories are provided in Appendix D.  The magnitude of all unit and plant closures on the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) sector 2005 base-case emissions is shown in Table 4-5 below.
Table 4-5.  Summary of Non-EGU Emission Reductions Applied to the 2005 Inventory due to Unit and Plant Closures
                                     State
                                      CO
                                    (tons)
                                  NH3
(tons)
                                  NOX (tons)
                                  PM10 (tons)
                                     PM2.5
                                    (tons)
                                      SO2
                                    (tons)
                                      VOC
                                    (tons)
Alabama
                                                                         10,680
                                                                              6
                                                                          4,104
                                                                          2,543
                                                                          2,257
                                                                          1,912
                                                                            870
Arizona
                                                                            509
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,524
                                                                            161
                                                                             65
                                                                              7
                                                                             28
Arkansas
                                                                          1,110
                                                                              0
                                                                          3,994
                                                                            401
                                                                            129
                                                                            920
                                                                            271
California
                                                                          2,684
                                                                              0
                                                                          6,675
                                                                          1,121
                                                                            444
                                                                          1,161
                                                                             23
Delaware
                                                                             93
                                                                              6
                                                                          1,495
                                                                            350
                                                                            326
                                                                          5,409
                                                                            391
Florida
                                                                          4,136
                                                                            230
                                                                          7,869
                                                                          1,049
                                                                            577
                                                                          8,547
                                                                            246
Georgia
                                                                          7,435
                                                                             21
                                                                          2,678
                                                                          1,187
                                                                            765
                                                                          2,688
                                                                          2,295
Idaho
                                                                            625
                                                                              6
                                                                            461
                                                                             14
                                                                              6
                                                                             17
                                                                              1
Illinois
                                                                         10,175
                                                                              0
                                                                         11,605
                                                                          1,996
                                                                          1,267
                                                                         23,830
                                                                            716
Indiana
                                                                          1,058
                                                                              0
                                                                          4,794
                                                                            486
                                                                            207
                                                                          8,468
                                                                            157
Iowa
                                                                            461
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,939
                                                                            230
                                                                             48
                                                                          4,787
                                                                             15
Kansas
                                                                            989
                                                                              4
                                                                          1,624
                                                                             84
                                                                             48
                                                                            329
                                                                             52
Louisiana
                                                                          3,035
                                                                            127
                                                                          1,878
                                                                            521
                                                                            337
                                                                          4,114
                                                                          4,061
Maine
                                                                            256
                                                                             13
                                                                          1,906
                                                                            467
                                                                            212
                                                                          3,767
                                                                            310
Maryland
                                                                            107
                                                                             22
                                                                          1,634
                                                                            168
                                                                             83
                                                                          1,137
                                                                              6
Massachusetts
                                                                             45
                                                                              7
                                                                            518
                                                                            114
                                                                             68
                                                                          1,909
                                                                             55
Michigan
                                                                          7,995
                                                                             73
                                                                         10,900
                                                                          2,274
                                                                          1,076
                                                                         14,598
                                                                          2,083
Mississippi
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                             69
                                                                              5
                                                                              5
                                                                             96

Missouri
                                                                             17
                                                                              4
                                                                             23
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
                                                                              0
                                                                            310
Nevada
                                                                            204
                                                                              0
                                                                          2,817
                                                                            212
                                                                             74
                                                                            175
                                                                             66
New Hampshire
                                                                            109
                                                                              0
                                                                            287
                                                                            113
                                                                            103
                                                                            681
                                                                            291
New Jersey
                                                                              9
                                                                              0
                                                                             31
                                                                             24
                                                                             24
                                                                              0
                                                                            996
New York
                                                                              5
                                                                              1
                                                                             48
                                                                             16
                                                                             11
                                                                            217
                                                                             14
North Carolina
                                                                             12
                                                                              1
                                                                             94
                                                                             25
                                                                             17
                                                                            379
                                                                              7
Ohio
                                                                            340

                                                                          4,238
                                                                            610
                                                                            299
                                                                          7,128
                                                                             69
Oklahoma
                                                                            103
                                                                              4
                                                                          1,757
                                                                            531
                                                                            184
                                                                          1,498
                                                                             17
Pennsylvania
                                                                          1,415
                                                                              4
                                                                          6,117
                                                                          1,293
                                                                            683
                                                                          6,852
                                                                            116
South Carolina
                                                                          1,666
                                                                              4
                                                                          2,115
                                                                            441
                                                                            266
                                                                          1,052
                                                                            302
Tennessee
                                                                            106
                                                                              0
                                                                          2,229
                                                                            242
                                                                            146
                                                                          5,407
                                                                          9,065
Texas
                                                                          5,395
                                                                             20
                                                                          9,664
                                                                          1,264
                                                                            642
                                                                          9,216
                                                                            507
Virginia
                                                                          3,161
                                                                              1
                                                                          3,737
                                                                          1,355
                                                                          1,029
                                                                         11,102
                                                                          2,188
West Virginia
                                                                         59,321
                                                                             55
                                                                          5,257
                                                                          1,244
                                                                            830
                                                                         13,410
                                                                            783
Wisconsin
                                                                            479
                                                                             28
                                                                          1,953
                                                                            436
                                                                            297
                                                                          7,672
                                                                            349
Grand Total
                                                                        123,735
                                                                            637
                                                                        106,034
                                                                         20,979
                                                                         12,527
                                                                        148,485
                                                                         26,660

   * In addition to plant closures, we included the effects of the Department of Justice Settlements and Consent Decrees on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector emissions.  We also included estimated impacts of HAP standards per Section 112, 129 of the Clean Air Act on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) and nonpoint (nonpt) sector emissions, based on expected CAP co-benefits to sources in these sectors.
   * Numerous controls have compliance dates beyond 2008; these include refinery and the Office of Compliance and Enforcement (OECA) consent decrees, Department of Justice (DOJ) settlements, as well as most national VOC MACT controls.  Additional OECA consent decree information is provided in Appendix B of the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf.  The detailed data used are available at the website listed in Section 1.  Several of these consent decrees and national NESHAP rules such as RICE and cement have compliance dates that are between 2012 and 2014; therefore, there are several differences in controls applied to the 2012 and 2014 base cases.
   * Refinery consent decrees controls at the facility and SCC level (collected through internal coordination on refineries by the EPA).
   * Fuel sulfur fuel limits were enforceable in 2014 (not 2012) for Maine and New York.  These fuel limits were incremental and not applicable until after 2012.  Because we only apply controls that are applicable before July 1, 2014, more stringent sulfur fuel controls and additional states with controls in later years were not applied.
   * Criteria air pollutant (cap) reductions a cobenefit to RICE NESHAP controls.  SO2 RICE cobenefit controls are not applied in 2012.
   * Most of the control programs were applied as replacement controls, which means that any existing percent reductions ("baseline control efficiency") reported in the NEI were removed prior to the addition of the percent reductions due to these control programs.  Exceptions to replacement controls are "additional" controls, which ensure that the controlled emissions match desired reductions regardless of the baseline control efficiencies in the NEI.  We used the "additional controls" approach for many permit limits, settlements and consent decrees where specific plant and multiple-plant-level reductions/targets were desired and at municipal waste landfills where VOC was reduced 75% via a MACT control using projection factors of 0.25.
   * We applied New York State Implementation Plan available controls for the 1997 8-hour Ozone standard for non-EGU point and nonpoint NOX and VOC sources based on NY State Department of Environmental Conservation February 2008 guidance.  These reductions are found in Appendix J in:  http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf.  See Section 3.2.6.

	2014 base-case reductions from the Portland Cement NESHAP
As indicated in Table 4-1, the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model (EPA, 2010) was used to project the cement industry component of the ptnonipm emissions modeling sector to 2014.  This approach provided reductions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants, including mercury.  The ISIS cement emissions were developed in support for the Portland Cement NESHAPs and the NSPS for the Portland cement manufacturing industry.

The ISIS model produced a Portland Cement NESHAP policy case of multi-pollutant emissions for individual cement kilns (emission inventory units) that were relevant for years 2013 through 2017.  These ISIS-based emissions included information on new cement kilns, facility and unit-level closures, and updated policy case emissions at existing cement kilns.  The units that opened or closed before 2010 were included in the 2012 base case. The ISIS-based policy case predictions of emissions reductions and activity growth were only included in the 2014 base case and not in the 2012 base case.

The ISIS model results for the future show a continuation of the recent trend in the cement sector of the replacement of lower capacity, inefficient wet and long dry kilns with bigger and more efficient preheater and precalciner kilns.  Multiple regulatory requirements such as the NESHAP and NSPS currently apply to the cement industry to reduce CAP and HAP emissions.  Additionally, state and local regulatory requirements might apply to individual cement facilities depending on their locations relative to ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment areas.  The ISIS model provides the emission reduction strategy that balances: 1) optimal (least cost) industry operation, 2) cost-effective controls to meet the demand for cement, and 3) emission reduction requirements over the time period of interest.  Table 4-6 shows the magnitude of the ISIS-based cement industry reductions in the future-year emissions that represent 2014, and the impact that these reductions have on total stationary non-EGU point source (ptnonipm) emissions.

Table 4-6.  Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr)
for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector
                                   Pollutant
                       Cement Industry emissions in 2005
             Decrease in cement industry emissions in 2014 vs 2005
                 % decrease in ptnonipm from cement reduction
NOX
                                                                        193,000
                                                                         56,740
                                                                           2.4%
PM2.5
                                                                         14,400
                                                                          7,840
                                                                           1.8%
SO2
                                                                        128,400
                                                                        106,000
                                                                           5.0%
VOC
                                                                          6,900
                                                                          5,570
                                                                           0.4%
HCl
                                                                          2,900
                                                                          2,220
                                                                           4.5%

	Boiler reductions not associated with the MACT rule

The Boiler MACT ICR collected data on existing controls.  We used an early version of a data base developed for that rulemaking entitled "survey_database_2008_results2.mdb" (EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058-0788) which is posted under the Technical Information for the Boiler MACT major source rule (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/boiler/boilerpg.html).  We extracted all controls that were installed after 2005, determined a percent reduction, and verified with source owners that these controls were actively in use.  In many situations we learned that the controls were on site but were not in use.  A summary of the plant-unit specific reductions that were verified to be actively in use are summarized in Table 4-7.

Table 4-7.  State-level non-MACT Boiler Reductions from ICR Data Gathering
State
                                   Pollutant
                        Pre-controlled Emissions (tons)
                          Controlled Emissions (tons)
                               Reductions (tons)
                              Percent Reduction %
Michigan
                                      NOX
                                                                            907
                                                                            544
                                                                            363
                                                                             40
North Carolina
                                      SO2
                                                                            652
                                                                             65
                                                                            587
                                                                             90
Virginia
                                      SO2
                                                                           3379
                                                                            338
                                                                           3041
                                                                             90
Washington
                                      SO2
                                                                            639
                                                                            383
                                                                            256
                                                                             40
North Carolina
                                      HCl
                                                                             31
                                                                              3
                                                                             28
                                                                             90

	RICE NESHAP
There are three rulemakings for National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE).  These rules reduce HAPs from existing and new RICE sources.  In order to meet the standards, existing sources with certain types of engines will need to install controls.  In addition to reducing HAPs, these controls also reduce CAPs, specifically, CO, NOX, VOC, PM, and SO2.  In 2014 and beyond, compliance dates have passed for all three rules; thus all three rules are included in the emissions projection.  In 2012 only the earliest rule's compliance date has passed so only one rule is included.

The rules can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/rice/ricepg.html and are listed below:

   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (69 FR 33473)  published 06/15/04

   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (FR 9648 ) published 03/03/10
   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (75 FR 51570) published 08/20/2010

The difference among these three rules is that they focus on different types of engines, different facility types (major for HAPs, versus area for HAPs) and different engine sizes based on horsepower (HP).  In addition, they have different compliance dates.  We project CAPs from the 2005 NEI RICE sources, based on the requirements of the rule for existing sources only because the inventory includes only existing sources and the current projection approach does not estimate emissions from new sources.

A complete discussion on the methodology to estimate year 2012 and year 2014 RICE controls is provided in Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf.  Impacts of the RICE controls on stationary non-EGU emissions (nonpt and ptnonipm sectors), excluding WRAP, Texas, and Oklahoma oil and gas emissions (see Section 4.2.7) are provided in Table 4-8.

Table 4-8.  National Impact of RICE Controls on 2012 and 2014 Non-EGU Projections
Pollutant
2012 Reductions
2014 Reductions
CO
                                                                         18,987
                                                                        124,516
NOX
                                                                         30,250
                                                                        123,662
PM2.5
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,368
PM10
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,595
SO2
                                                                              0
                                                                         23,368
VOC
                                                                          1,069
                                                                         15,934

	Fuel sulfur rules
Fuel sulfur rules that were signed and implemented by June 30, 2014 are limited to Maine and New York.  No fuel sulfur rule reductions were available in other states and compliance dates for 2012.  As standard practice we have used June 30[th] as the cut-off date for all control programs to be included in a calendar year.  For example, a control program with a compliance (effective) date of June 30, 2012 would be included in the 2012 projected emissions; however, a control program effective July 1, 2012 would not be included in 2012 projections.  Several other states have fuel sulfur rules that were in development but not finalized prior to Transport Rule emissions processing:  http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf.

The fuel sulfur content for all home heating oil SCCs in 2005 is assumed to by 3000 part per million (ppm).  Effective July 1, 2012, New York requires all heating oil sold in New York to contain no more than 15ppm of sulfur, thus reducing SO2 emissions by 99.5% for 2014 projections (and no reduction for 2012).  These New York sulfur content reductions are further discussed here:
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html.

The Maine fuel sulfur rule effective January 1, 2014 reduces sulfur to 500ppm, resulting in an 83.33% reduction from 3000 ppm.  These Maine sulfur content reductions are discussed here:  http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf.

Further reductions in NY, ME, and other states effective after June 30, 2014 are not included.  The impact of these fuel sulfur content reductions on SO2 is shown in Table 4-9.
Table 4-9.  Impact of Fuel Sulfur Controls on 2014 Non-EGU Projections
State
SO2 Reductions
Maine
                                                                          7,053
New York
                                                                         54,431

	Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt)
For the 2005v4.2 platform, we incorporated updated 2005 oil and gas emissions from Texas and Oklahoma.  For Texas oil and gas production, we used 2012 and 2014 estimates from the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and used them as described in:  http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/5820783985FY0901-20090715-ergi-Drilling_Rig_EI.pdf.

We also received 2008 data for Oklahoma that we used as the best available data to represent 2012 and 2014.  As with the 2005 v4 platform, the v4.2 platform utilizes the Phase II WRAP oil and gas emissions data for the non-California Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states for 2005.  WRAP 2018 Phase II emissions were also available but determined to be inappropriate for use in 2012 and 2014.  Consequently, we started with the base year emissions for Oklahoma and the WRAP states and applied these additional reductions related to the RICE NESHAP.

For Oklahoma and WRAP oil and gas emissions, we applied CO, NOX, and VOC emissions reductions from the Stationary Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine (RICE) NESHAP, which we assumed has some applicability to this industry (see Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf).  SO2 reductions associated with the RICE NESHAP were also included for these same data for the year 2014 projection.  Table 4-10 shows the 2005, 2012, and 2014 NOX and SO2 emissions including RICE reductions for Oklahoma and the WRAP states.
Table 4-10.  Oil and Gas NOX and SO2 Emissions for 2005, 2012, and 2014 including additional reductions due to the RICE NESHAP

                                  NOX (tons)
                                  SO2 (tons)
State
                                     2005
                                     2012
                                     2014
                                     2005
                                     2012
                                     2014
Alaska
                                                                           836
                                                                           811
                                                                            732
                                                                            62
                                                                             62
                                                                             31
Arizona
                                                                             13
                                                                             12
                                                                             12

Colorado
                                                                         32,188
                                                                         31,806
                                                                         30,625
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            176
Montana
                                                                         10,617
                                                                         10,456
                                                                          9,957
                                                                            640
                                                                            640
                                                                            321
Nevada
                                                                             71
                                                                             69
                                                                             62
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              0
New Mexico
                                                                         61,674
                                                                         60,317
                                                                         56,119
                                                                            369
                                                                            369
                                                                            188
North Dakota
                                                                          6,040
                                                                          5,861
                                                                          5,306
                                                                            688
                                                                            688
                                                                            355
Oklahoma
                                                                         39,668
                                                                         44,362
                                                                         42,402
                                                                          1,014
                                                                              2
                                                                              2
Oregon
                                                                             61
                                                                             60
                                                                             55

South Dakota
                                                                            566
                                                                            550
                                                                            502
                                                                             43
                                                                             43
                                                                             21
Texas
                                                                         42,854
                                                                         46,251
                                                                         39,462
                                                                          5,977
                                                                             43
                                                                             38
Utah
                                                                          6,896
                                                                          6,777
                                                                          6,409
                                                                            149
                                                                            149
                                                                             75
Wyoming
                                                                         36,172
                                                                         35,505
                                                                         33,442
                                                                            541
                                                                            541
                                                                            272
                                                                    Grand Total
                                                                        237,656
                                                                        242,837
                                                                        225,085
                                                                          9,834
                                                                          2,888
                                                                          1,479
Future-year VOC Speciation for gasoline-related sources (ptnonipm, nonpt)
To account for the future projected increase in the ethanol content of fuels, we used different future-year VOC speciation for certain gasoline-related emission sources.  Such sources include gasoline stage II (refueling vehicles), portable fuel containers (PFCs), and finished fuel storage and transport-related sources related to bulk terminals (where the ethanol may be mixed) and downstream to the pump.  We identified this last group of sources as "btp" (from bulk terminals to pumps).  While most of these sources are in the nonpt sector, there are also some in the ptnonipm sector.  In the 2005 base year, we used zero percent ethanol (E0) fuel profiles.  For the 2012 and 2014 profiles, we used combinations of E0 and ten percent ethanol (E10) fuel profiles.  The fuel type fraction was developed based on the Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2007 projections of ethanol fuels for the year 2022.  In the AEO 2007 data, the proportions of E0 and E10 fuels are the same for 2012 and years beyond (even though the quantities of the two fuels change over these years).  The national level proportions were allocated to counties across the country using fuel modeling at the EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality.  All gasoline stage II and "btp" sources used the same combination of E0 and E10 headspace profiles as were used for exhaust and evaporative profiles.

Mobile source projections
Mobile source monthly inventories of onroad and nonroad mobile emissions were created for 2012 and 2014 using a combination of the NMIM and MOVES2010 models.  Future-year emissions reflect onroad mobile control programs including the Light-Duty Vehicle Tier 2 Rule, the Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule, and the Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) final rule.  Nonroad mobile emissions reductions for these years include reductions to locomotives, various nonroad engines including diesel engines and various marine engine types, fuel sulfur content, and evaporative emissions standards.

Onroad mobile sources are comprised of several components and are discussed in the next subsection (4.3.1).  Monthly nonroad mobile emission projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.2.  Locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (C1/C2 CMV) projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.3, and Class 3 (C3) CMV projected emissions are discussed in subsection 4.3.4.
	Onroad mobile (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm)
The onroad emissions were primarily based on the 2010 version of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES2010)  -  the same version as was used for 2005.  The same MOVES-based PM2.5 temperature adjustment factors were applied as were used in 2005 for running mode emissions; however, cold start emissions used year-specific temperature adjustment factors.  The temperature adjustments have the minor limitation that they were based on the use of MOVES national default inputs rather than county-specific inputs.  This was because a county-specific database for input to MOVES was not available at the time this approach was needed.  However, the PM2.5 temperature adjustments are fairly insensitive to the county-specific inputs, which is why this is only a minor limitation.

California onroad (on_noadj)
Like year 2005 emissions, future-year California NH3 emissions are from MOVES runs for California, disaggregated to the county level using NMIM.  For all other pollutants, we did not use MOVES to generate future-year onroad emissions for California, because the 2005 base year emissions were provided by CARB's Emission Factors mobile model (EMFAC), outputs of which CARB submitted for the 2005 NEI.  For California, we chose an approach that would maintain consistency between the 2005 and 2012 and 2014 emissions.  This approach involved computing projection factors from a consistent set of future and 2005-year data provided by CARB based on the EMFAC2007 model.  For 2012 emissions, we generated projection factors by dividing the EMFAC2007-based emissions for 2012 (linearly interpolated between year 2009 and year 2014) by the EMFAC2007-based emissions for 2005.  These EMFAC-based emissions were provided in March 2007.  California does not specify road types, so we first used NMIM California ratios to break out vehicle emissions to the match the more detailed NMIM level before projecting to 2012.

HAP emissions were computed as 2005v2-based HAP-CAP ratios applied to 2012 and 2014 CAP emissions at the pollutant and Level 3 SCC (first 7 characters).  HAPs were scaled to either of three pollutants: exhaust PM2.5 (e.g., metals), exhaust VOC (e.g., exhaust mode VOC HAPs such as acetaldehyde and formaldehyde), or evaporative VOC (e.g., evaporative mode VOC HAPs such as benzene).

Onroad mobile sector with no adjustment for daily temperature (on_noadj)
As discussed in Section 2, the MOVES2010 model was used for all vehicles, road types, and pollutants.  Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) were projected using growth rates from the Department of Energy's AEO2009.  We used MOVES2010 to create emissions by state, SCC, pollutant, emissions mode and month.  We then allocated these emissions to counties using ratios based on 2012 and 2015 NMIM county-level data by state, SCC, pollutant, and emissions mode.  2014 NMIM data were not available for this effort, but the 2015 NMIM can reasonably be expected to be sufficient for 2014 state-county allocations for this purpose.  While the EPA intends to replace this approach with a county-specific implementation of MOVES for use in future regulatory actions, this approach was the best approach available at the time of this modeling.

Onroad PM gasoline running and cold start mode sectors (on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm)
MOVES-based cold start and running mode emissions consist of gasoline exhaust speciated PM and naphthalene.  These pre-temperature-adjusted emissions at 72°F are projected to years 2012 and 2014 from year 2005 inventories using the 2012- and 2014-specific runs of MOVES2010.  VMT were projected using growth rates from the AEO2009.  As with the on_noadj sector, the 2012 and 2014 MOVES2010 data were created at the state-month level, and the 2012 and 2015 NMIM results were used to disaggregate the state level results to the county level.

MOVES-based temperature adjustment factors were applied to gridded, hourly emissions using gridded, hourly meteorology.  As seen in Figure 4-1, for year 2012, we used the same temperature adjustment factors as the 2005 base case for both start and running modes.  However, cold start temperature adjustment factors decrease slightly in future years, and for year 2014 processing, we updated the temperature adjustment curves for these cold start emissions.  These have little impact, reducing cold-start mode temperature-adjusted PM and naphthalene by under 4% for temperatures down to 0 F.  Note that running exhaust temperature adjustment factors are the same for all years.  Also, these running mode exhaust mode emissions are considerably larger than cold start mode emissions.

Figure 4-1.  MOVES exhaust temperature adjustment functions for 2005, 2012, and 2014

	Nonroad mobile (nonroad)
This sector includes monthly exhaust, evaporative and refueling emissions from nonroad engines (not including commercial marine, aircraft, and locomotives) derived from NMIM for all states except California.  Like the onroad emissions, NMIM provides nonroad emissions for VOC by three emission modes: exhaust, evaporative and refueling.  Unlike the onroad sector, nonroad refueling emissions for nonroad sources are not included in the nonpoint (nonpt) sector and so are retained in this sector.

With the exception of California, U.S. emissions for the nonroad sector (defined as the equipment types covered by NMIM) were created using a consistent NMIM-based approach as was used for 2005, but projected for 2012 and 2015.  The 2012 and 2015 NMIM runs utilized the NR05d-Bond-final version of NONROAD (which is equivalent to NONROAD2008a).  Similar to the onroad mobile NMIM inventories, year 2014 NMIM emissions were created by interpolating year 2012 and year 2015 NMIM inventories.  These future-year emissions account for increases in activity (based on NONROAD model default growth estimates of future-year equipment population) and changes in fuels and engines that reflect implementation of national regulations and local control programs that impact each year differently due to engine turnover.

The national regulations incorporated in the modeling are those promulgated prior to December 2009, and beginning about 1990.  Recent rules include:
   * "Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4": (http://www.epa.gov/nonroaddiesel/2004fr.htm ), published June 29, 2004, and,
   * Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large Spark-Ignition Engines, and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land-Based), November 8, 2002 ("Pentathalon Rule").
   * OTAQ's Locomotive Marine Rule: (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm)
   * OTAQ's Small Engine Spark Ignition ("Bond") Rule: (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-ld.htm)

We have not included voluntary programs such as programs encouraging either no refueling or evening refueling on Ozone Action Days and diesel retrofit programs.  NMIM version 20071009, with county database NCD20070912, and NONROAD model version NONROAD2008a (see http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nonrdmdl.htm#model) was used to create NMIM inventories for 2012 and 2015.

California nonroad emissions
Similar to onroad mobile, NMIM was not used to generate future-year nonroad emissions for California, other than for NH3.  We used NMIM for California future nonroad NH3 emissions because CARB did not provide these data for any nonroad vehicle types.  As we did for onroad emissions, we chose a projection approach that would maintain consistency between the base year and future-year emissions for nonroad emissions in California.

California year 2014 nonroad CAP emissions are similar to those used in the 2002v3 projected inventory.  However, similar to onroad mobile, California nonroad HAPs were computed as ratios to select CAPs using 2005 NMIM CAP-HAP ratios.

California year 2012 nonroad CAP emissions were computed by linearly interpolating year 2009 and 2014 inventories.  And 2012 HAP emissions were also computed using the same 2005-based CAP-HAP ratios used to create 2014 HAP emissions.
	Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3)
Future locomotive and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions were calculated using projection factors that were computed based on national, annual summaries of locomotive emissions in 2002 and future years.  These national summaries were used to create national by-pollutant, by-SCC projection factors; these factors include final locomotive-marine controls and are provided in Table 4-11.
Table 4-11.  Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2 Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions
SCC
SCC Description
                                   Pollutant
                               Projection Factor

                                     2012
                                     2014
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      CO
                                                                          0.972
                                                                          0.968
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.094
                                                                          1.114
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.851
                                                                          0.792
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.875
                                                                          0.762
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.890
                                                                          0.775
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.531
                                                                          0.278
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.951
                                                                          0.897
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      CO
                                                                          1.232
                                                                          1.272
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.223
                                                                          1.262
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.732
                                                                          0.711
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.768
                                                                          0.696
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.778
                                                                          0.705
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.166
                                                                          0.005
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.839
                                                                          0.748
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      CO
                                                                          0.303
                                                                          0.313
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.223
                                                                          1.262
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.339
                                                                          0.350
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.283
                                                                          0.286
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.286
                                                                          0.288
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.001
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.291
                                                                          0.300
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      CO
                                                                          1.030
                                                                          1.046
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.223
                                                                          1.262
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.667
                                                                          0.598
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.660
                                                                          0.576
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.662
                                                                          0.578
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.156
                                                                          0.005
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.738
                                                                          0.633
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      CO
                                                                          1.015
                                                                          1.032
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.223
                                                                          1.262
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.658
                                                                          0.590
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.650
                                                                          0.568
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.651
                                                                          0.568
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.155
                                                                          0.005
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.728
                                                                          0.625
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      CO
                                                                          1.239
                                                                          1.279
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.223
                                                                          1.262
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      NOX
                                                                          1.133
                                                                          1.127
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.942
                                                                          0.919
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.962
                                                                          0.938
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.183
                                                                          0.005
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      VOC
                                                                          1.548
                                                                          1.526

The future-year locomotive emissions account for increased fuel consumption based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail, and emissions reductions resulting from emissions standards from the Final Locomotive-Marine rule (EPA, 2009).  This rule lowered diesel sulfur content and tightened emission standards for existing and new locomotives and marine diesel emissions to lower future-year PM, SO2, and NOX, and is documented at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm.  Voluntary retrofits under the National Clean Diesel Campaign (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel/index.htm) are not included in our projections.

We applied HAP factors for VOC HAPs by using the VOC projection factors to obtain 1,3-butadiene, acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, and formaldehyde.

Class 1 and 2 CMV gasoline emissions (SCC =<PHONE_NUMBER>) were not changed for future-year processing.  C1/C2 diesel emissions (SCC =<PHONE_NUMBER> and<PHONE_NUMBER>) were projected based on the Final Locomotive Marine rule national-level factors provided in Table 4-11.  Similar to locomotives, VOC HAPs were projected based on the VOC factor.

Delaware provided updated future-year NOX, SO2, and PM emission estimates for C1/C2 CMV as part of the Transport Rule comments.  These updated emissions were applied to the 2012 and 2014 inventories and override the C1/C2 projection factors in Table 4-11.
	Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3)
The seca_c3 sector emissions data were provided by OTAQ in an ASCII raster format used since the SO2 Emissions Control Area-International Marine Organization (ECA-IMO) project began in 2005.  The (S)ECA Category 3 (C3) commercial marine vessel 2002 base-case emissions were projected to year 2005 for the 2005 base case and to years 2012 and 2014 for the future base cases.  Both future base cases include ECA-IMO controls.  An overview of the ECA-IMO project and future-year goals for reduction of NOX, SO2, and PM C3 emissions can be found at:  http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420f09015.htm

The resulting coordinated strategy, including emission standards under the Clean Air Act for new marine diesel engines with per-cylinder displacement at or above 30 liters, and the establishment of Emission Control Areas is at:  http://www.epa.gov/oms/oceanvessels.htm

These projection factors vary depending on geographic region and pollutant; where VOC HAPs are assigned the same growth rates as VOC.  The projection factors used to create the 2012 and 2014 seca_c3 sector emissions are provided in Table 4-12.  Note that these factors are relative to 2002.  Factors relative to 2005 can be computed from the 2002-2005 factors.

The geographic regions are described in the ECA Proposal technical support document: http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420r09007-chap2.pdf.  These regions extend up to 200 nautical miles offshore, though less at international boundaries.  North and South Pacific regions are divided by the Oregon-Washington border, and East Coast and Gulf Coast regions are divided east-west by roughly the upper Florida Keys just southwest of Miami.

Delaware provided updated future-year NOX, SO2, and PM emission estimates for the C3 CMV as part of the Transport Rule comments.  These updated emissions were applied to the 2012 and 2014 inventories and override the C3 projection factors in Table 4-12.

The factors to compute HAP emission are based on emissions ratios discussed in the 2005v4 documentation.  As with the 2005 base case, this sector uses CAP-HAP VOC integration.
Table 4-12.  NOX, SO2, and PM2.5 Factors to Project Class 3 Commercial Marine Vessel emissions to 2012 and 2014

NOX
SO2
PM2.5

2012
2014
2012
2014
2012
2014
Alaska East
                                                                        1.26234
                                                                        1.32620
                                                                        0.52912
                                                                        0.56462
                                                                        0.52433
                                                                        0.55951
Alaska West (AW)
                                                                        1.28461
                                                                        1.35119
                                                                        1.33532
                                                                        1.42491
                                                                        1.33555
                                                                        1.42515
East Coast
                                                                        1.33102
                                                                        1.39686
                                                                        0.55987
                                                                        0.61140
                                                                        0.51862
                                                                        0.56635
Gulf Coast
                                                                        1.12285
                                                                        1.14364
                                                                        0.47456
                                                                        0.50248
                                                                        0.43526
                                                                        0.46087
Hawaii East (HE)
                                                                        1.37239
                                                                        1.45513
                                                                        0.61127
                                                                        0.67392
                                                                        0.54920
                                                                        0.60550
Hawaii West (HW)
                                                                        1.45767
                                                                        1.54847
                                                                        1.59605
                                                                        1.75964
                                                                        1.59408
                                                                        1.75748
North Pacific (NP)
                                                                        1.19916
                                                                        1.23653
                                                                        0.54159
                                                                        0.57792
                                                                        0.47330
                                                                        0.50506
South Pacific (SP)
                                                                        1.40836
                                                                        1.49931
                                                                        0.64318
                                                                        0.71344
                                                                        0.54825
                                                                        0.60797
Great Lakes (GL)
                                                                        1.08304
                                                                        1.10302
                                                                        0.42239
                                                                        0.43687
                                                                        0.39684
                                                                        0.41045
Outside ECA
                                                                        1.37211
                                                                        1.44085
                                                                        1.52102
                                                                        1.65818
                                                                        1.52102
                                                                        1.65818
	Future-year VOC Speciation (on_noadj, nonroad)
We used speciation profiles for VOC in the nonroad and on_noadj sectors that account for the increase in ethanol content of fuels in future years.  The same future-year profiles were used for 2012 and 2014.  The combination profiles use proportions of E0 and E10 expected in the future based on AEO 2007 projections of E10 and E0 fuel use.  The proportions of E0 and E10 are the same for 2012 and years beyond (even though the quantities of the two fuels change over these years).  The national proportions were allocated to counties across the country using the same fuel modeling done for the stationary source gasoline speciation, as discussed in Section 4.2.8.

The speciation of onroad exhaust VOC additionally accounts for a portion of the vehicle fleet meeting Tier 2 standards; different exhaust profiles are available for pre-Tier 2 versus Tier 2 vehicles.  Thus for exhaust VOC, a combination of pre-Tier 2 E0, pre-Tier 2 E10, Tier 2 E0 and Tier 2 E10 profiles are used.  Figure 4-2 shows the Tier 2 fraction of Light Duty Vehicles for different future years in terms of different metrics.  For previous modeling applications, we based the fraction on the population of vehicles.  However, since these vehicles emit a smaller portion of VOC, a more appropriate metric for use in weighting the speciation profiles is the fraction of exhaust total hydrocarbons (THC) which is used in the 2012 case described here.  The fraction of Tier 2 emissions used here for 2012 is 0.182.  We erroneously used this same fraction for 2014; the correct fraction of Tier 2 emissions for 2014 should have been 0.261.

Table 4-13 summarizes the profiles combined for the source categories and VOC emission modes used.

Table 4-13.  Future-year Profiles for Mobile Source Related Sources
Sector
Type of profile
Profile Codes Combined for the Future-year Speciation
Stationary
headspace
8762:   Composite Profile - Gasoline Headspace Vapor using 0% Ethanol
8763:   Composite Profile - Gasoline Headspace Vapor using 10% Ethanol
Nonroad exhaust
Pre-Tier 2 vehicle exhaust
8750:  Gasoline Exhaust - Reformulated gasoline
8751: Gasoline Exhaust - E10 ethanol gasoline
Onroad and Nonroad evap*
Evaporative
8753:  Gasoline Vehicle - Evaporative emission - Reformulated gasoline
8754:  Gasoline Vehicle - Evaporative emission - E10 ethanol gasoline
Nonroad refueling
headspace
Same as Stationary
Onroad exhaust
Pre-Tier 2 vehicle exhaust and Tier 2 vehicle exhaust
8750: Gasoline Exhaust - Reformulated gasoline
8751: Gasoline Exhaust - E10 ethanol gasoline
8756: Composite Profile - Gasoline Exhaust - Tier 2 light-duty vehicles using 0% Ethanol
8757: Composite Profile - Gasoline Exhaust - Tier 2 light-duty vehicles using 10% Ethanol
* E0 and E10 combinations are based on AEO2007 projections of E0 and E10 fuel
* Tier 2 and pre-Tier 2 combinations are based on the 2012 contribution of Tier 2 exhaust emissions

Figure 4-2.  Tier 2 Fraction of Light Duty Vehicles

Canada, Mexico, and Offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt)
Emissions for Canada, Mexico, and offshore sources were not projected to future years, and are therefore the same as those used in the 2005 base case.  Therefore, the Mexico emissions are based on year 1999, offshore oil is based on year 2005, and Canada is based on year 2006.  For both Mexico and Canada, their responsible agencies did not provide future-year emissions that were consistent with the base year emissions.

Source Apportionment
The EPA prepared special emissions inputs for the CAMX model to allow CAMX to be used for source apportionment modeling.  Source apportionment modeling was used to quantify the impact of emissions in specific upwind states on projected downwind nonattainment and maintenance receptors for both PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone.  To prepare these emissions, the EPA prepared special tagging input files called GSTAG files for the SMOKE speciation processor.

The tagging input files and custom SMOKE scripts implemented tagging by state of all source emissions except for biogenic and wildfire emissions for all ozone and PM2.5 precursors.  Separate tagging runs were done for ozone and PM2.5 precursors.  Biogenic and wildfire emissions were not tagged by state because they are generally considered not feasible for emissions controls, but these were tagged as "other sources" and their contributions could be tracked in total without association with individual states.  Prescribed burning and agricultural burning were included in the tagged emissions.  The states the EPA analyzed using source apportionment for ozone and for PM2.5 are: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Washington D.C., and Wisconsin.  There were also several other states that are only partially contained within the 12 km modeling domain (i.e., Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, and Wyoming).  However, the EPA did not individually track the emissions or assess the contribution from emissions in these states

Remedy Case

The 2014 Remedy Case for the Transport Rule represents the implementation of SO2, annual NOX, and ozone-season NOX emission reductions to address upwind state emissions that contribute significantly to nonattainment in, or interfere with maintenance by downwind states with respect to the existing ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS standards in the eastern U.S.  The final Transport Rule requires SO2 and/or NOX reductions from EGUs in 27 states starting in 2012.  For the remedy case modeling, the emissions for all sectors were unchanged from the base-case modeling except for those from EGUs (the ptipm sector).  The EPA used the IPM model to project the 2014 remedy case EGU emissions.  The changes in EGU SO2 and NOX emissions as a result of the control case for the lower 48 states are summarized in Section 7.  Section 7 also provides state-specific summaries of EGU NOX and SO2 for the lower 48 states.  Additional details on the changes that resulted from the remedy case are provided in the Transport Rule Final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), Chapter 7 (Cost, Economic, and Energy Impacts), which describes the modeling conducted to estimate the cost, economic, and energy impacts to the power sector.

The 23 states covered by the annual SO2 and NOX reduction requirements for the annual and/or 24-hour PM2.5 standards in the remedy case are colored in blue and green in Figure 6-1.  Figure 6-2 distinguishes between the "Group 1" states (in red) and the "Group 2" states (in orange); the Group 1 states are subject to a second, more stringent phase of SO2 reductions starting in 2014 (sections VI and VII of the preamble to the final Transport Rule discuss the SO2 groups in detail).  All states covered for the annual and/or 24-hour PM2.5 standards are in one annual NOX tier with uniform stringency beginning in 2012.  Table 6-1 shows the groups in which each state is included, including whether the state is included in the Eastern modeling domain. Section 7 provides annual SO2 and NOX summaries for these selected groups/tiers of states.

The 20 states required to make ozone-season NOX reductions to address the 8-hour ozone standard in the final Transport Rule are shown in green and yellow in Figure 6-1.  In these states ozone-season NOX reductions begin with the 2012 ozone season.  As discussed in section III of the preamble, the EPA issued a supplemental proposal to provide the opportunity for public comment on inclusion of six additional states in the Transport Rule ozone-season program:  Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin.  These six states are also shown in green or yellow in Figure 6-1.  Section 7 provides ozone-season NOX emissions summaries for the states required in the final Transport Rule to make ozone-season NOX reductions and the six additional states addressed in the supplemental proposal.  Figure 6-1 shows for each of the contiguous 48 states the components of the rule they fall under, and whether they are included in the Eastern modeling domain.  Tribal land emissions are not associated with particular states; those few tribal emissions in the eastern domain are very small and are not associated with existing units covered by the Transport Rule.

The emissions, cost, air quality, and benefits analyses done for the Transport Rule are from a modeling scenario that requires annual SO2 and NOx reductions in the 23 states covered for the PM2.5 standards, and ozone season NOX requirements in the 20 states covered for the ozone standard and the six states addressed by the supplemental proposal (26 states total) as shown in Figure 6-1.

Figure 6-1.  States Covered by the Final Transport Rule
(Figure 6-1 includes six states--IA, KS, MI, MO, OK, and WI--not covered for ozone-season requirements in the final rule, for which the EPA issued a supplemental proposal to require ozone-season reductions.)

Figure 6-2.  Group 1 and Group 2 States Covered by the Annual PM Component of the
Final Transport Rule

Table 6-1.  Transport Rule Status of States
State
                                     State
                                  EPA Region
                       Covered for PM2.5  -  Group 1 SO2
                       Covered for PM2.5  -  Group 2 SO2
                      Covered for Ozone in Transport Rule
                  Covered for Ozone in Supplemental  Proposal
                             Total State Coverage
                               In Eastern Domain
                                 Western State
ALABAMA
AL
                                       4
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
ARIZONA
AZ
                                       9
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
ARKANSAS
AR
                                       6
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
CALIFORNIA
CA
                                       9
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
COLORADO
CO
                                       8
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
CONNECTICUT
CT
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
DELAWARE
DE
                                       3
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DC
                                       3
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
FLORIDA
FL
                                       4
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
GEORGIA
GA
                                       4
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
IDAHO
ID
                                      10
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
ILLINOIS
IL
                                       5
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
INDIANA
IN
                                       5
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
IOWA
IA
                                       7
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
KANSAS
KS
                                       7
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
KENTUCKY
KY
                                       4
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
LOUISIANA
LA
                                       6
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
MAINE
ME
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
MARYLAND
MD
                                       3
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
MASSACHUSETTS
MA
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
MICHIGAN
MI
                                       5
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
MINNESOTA
MN
                                       5
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
MISSISSIPPI
MS
                                       4
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
MISSOURI
MO
                                       7
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
MONTANA
MT
                                       8
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
NEBRASKA
NE
                                       7
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
NEVADA
NV
                                       9
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NH
                                       1
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
NEW JERSEY
NJ
                                       2
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
NEW MEXICO
NM
                                       6
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
NEW YORK
NY
                                       2
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
NORTH CAROLINA
NC
                                       4
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
NORTH DAKOTA
ND
                                       8
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
OHIO
OH
                                       5
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
OKLAHOMA
OK
                                       6
                                       0
                                       0
                                       0
                                       1
                                       1
                                       1
                                       0
OREGON
OR