Corrected Version as of February 18, 1994 Guidance on the Post 1996 Rate of Progress Plan and the Attainment Demonstration Ozone/ Carbon Monoxide Programs Branch U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 ii iii CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.1 Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.0 CALCULATION OF POST 1996 TARGET LEVELS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.1 Calculation of Post 1996 Target Level( s) of Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.2 Example Calculation of Post 1996 Target Level( s) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Calculation of 1999 Target Level of Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.3 Conditions Permitting Less than a 3 Percent VOC Emission Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.0 ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION REQUIREMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3.1 Modeling Requirements for Attainment Demonstrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3.2 Special Air Quality Situations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Areas Requiring Emission Reductions in Addition to 3 Percent per Year . . . . . . . . . . 18 Multi State Nonattainment Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 States Included in More than One Modeling Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 International Border Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Areas with Differing Required Attainment Dates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Exceedances Monitored within a Modeling Domain Due Primarily to Emissions in Another Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 4.0 NOX EMISSION REDUCTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.1 Substitution of NOx Emission Reductions for Post 1996 VOC Emission Reductions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.2 Calculation of Post 1996 NOx and VOC Target Levels of Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.3 Creditability of Pre 1996 VOC and NOx Reductions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 4.4 Example Calculation of Post 1996 VOC and NOx Target Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Calculation of 1999 Target Levels of Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 5.0 CONTROL STRATEGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 5.1 Mandatory Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Serious Nonattainment Area Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Severe Nonattainment Area Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Extreme Nonattainment Area Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 5.2 Additional Control Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 5.3 Emission Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Growth Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 5.4 Relationship Between the Post 1996 Rate of Progress Plans and Other Provisions of the Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Multiple Projection System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 5.5 Economic Incentive Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 5.6 Contingency Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 5.7 Long Term Control Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 5.8 New Technologies for Extreme Ozone Nonattainment Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 iv 6.0 POST 1996 RATE OF PROGRESS PLAN AND ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION SUBMITTALS AND DOCUMENTATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 6.1 Post 1996 Rate of Progress and Attainment Demonstration Requirements . . . . . . . . . 55 1990 Adjusted Base Year Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Target Level( s) of Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Control Measure and Growth Factor Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Milestone Year Projected Inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 6.2 Multi State Submittal Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 6.3 Mid Course Corrections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 6.4 Suggested Submittal Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 APPENDIX A: DEFINITIONS OF TERMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A 1 APPENDIX B: GENERAL IMPLICATIONS OF MILESTONE AND ATTAINMENT FAILURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B 1 APPENDIX C: CHECKLISTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C 1 APPENDIX D: COMPILATION OF GUIDANCE MEMORANDA ON THE 15 PERCENT RATE OF PROGRESS REQUIREMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D 1 v LIST OF TABLES Number Page 1. SERIOUS AND ABOVE OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA POST 1996 MILESTONE AND ATTAINMENT DATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2. SIP SUBMITTAL REQUIREMENTS FOR MODERATE AND ABOVE OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREAS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3. BEA PROJECTION CATEGORIES FOR METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS ( MSA'S) AND STATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 5. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR POST 1996 RATE OF PROGRESS CONTROL STRATEGY SUMMARY SUBMITTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 6. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR ATTAINMENT CONTROL STRATEGY SUMMARY SUBMITTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 7. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR CONTINGENCY MEASURE SUBMITTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 8. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR SUBMITTAL OF RULE EFFECTIVENESS ( RE) IMPROVEMENT MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 9. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR SUBMITTAL OF STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE POST 1996 RATE OF PROGRESS PLAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 10. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR SUBMITTAL OF STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 vi LIST OF FIGURES Number Page Figure 1. Flowchart for generic post 1996 rate of progress VOC target level calculation . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 2. Flowchart of hypothetical example 1999 rate of progress VOC target level calculation . . . . 14 Figure 3. Flowchart for generic post 1996 rate of progress VOC calculations ( with NOx substitution) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Figure 4. Flowchart for rate of progress NOx calculation for 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Figure 4a. Flowchart for generic post 1999 rate of progress NOx calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 5. Flowchart for hypothetical example 1999 rate of progress VOC calculations ( with NOx substitution) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Figure 6. Flowchart for hypothetical example 1999 rate of progress NOx calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 vii ACRONYMS Act Clean Air Act ACT Alternative Control Technology AEERL Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory AFS AIRS Facility Subsystem AIRS Aerometric Information Retrieval System AMS AIRS Area and Mobile Source Subsystem ASC Area Source Category code BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis CFR Code of Federal Regulations CO carbon monoxide CTG Control Techniques Guideline E GAS Economic Growth Analysis System EIP Economic Incentive Program EPA U. S. Environmental Protection Agency EPS Emissions Preprocessor System FIP Federal Implementation Plan FIPS Federal Information Processing Standards FMVCP Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program FR Federal Register I/ M Inspection and Maintenance lb pound( s) LEV Low Emitting Vehicle MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization MPS Multiple Projection System MSA Metropolitan Statistical Area NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard( s) NESHAP National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants NO2 nitrogen dioxide NOx nitrogen oxides NSPS New Source Performance Standards NSR New Source Review OAQPS Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards ppb parts per billion ppm parts per million psi pounds per square inch RACT Reasonably Available Control Technology RE rule effectiveness REMI Regional Economic Models, Inc. ROM regional oxidant modeling RVP Reid vapor pressure SAS Statistical Analysis System SCC Source Classification Code SIC Standard Industrial Classification SIP State implementation plan STAPPA/ ALAPCO State and Territorial Air Pollution Program Administrators and Association of Local Air Pollution Control Officials TCM transportation control measures TIP Transportation Improvement Program tpy tons per year TSD Technical Support Document( ation) UAM Urban Airshed Model VMT vehicle miles traveled VOC volatile organic compound( s) ACRONYMS ( continued)

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Section 182( c)( 2) of the Clean Air Act ( Act) requires each serious and above ozone nonattainment area to submit a State implementation plan ( SIP) revision by November 15, 1994, which describes, in part, how the area will achieve an actual volatile organic compound ( VOC) emission reduction of at least 3 percent per year averaged over each consecutive 3 year period beginning 6 years after enactment ( i. e., November 15, 1996) until the area's attainment date. The attainment dates prescribed by section 181( a) of the Act are as follows:

! November 15, 1999 for serious ozone nonattainment areas.

! November 15, 2005 for severe ozone nonattainment areas.

! November 15, 2007 for severe ozone nonattainment areas with a 1986 1988 ozone design value of 0.190 parts per million ( ppm) up to, but not including, 0.280 ppm.

! November 15, 2010 for extreme ozone nonattainment areas.

This SIP revision must also describe how any growth in emissions over each applicable post 1996 period will be offset. The portion of the SIP revision that illustrates the plan for the achievement of these emission reductions is subsequently defined in this document as the " post 1996 rate of progress plan."

The Act permits less than a 3 percent per year VOC emission reduction averaged over each consecutive 3 year period for serious and severe ozone nonattainment areas if the State demonstrates that the plan includes all measures that, given technological achievability, can feasibly be implemented in the given area. Additionally, the State must demonstrate that its plan includes measures that are achieved in practice by sources in the same source category in nonattainment areas of the next higher classification [ section 182( c)( 2)( B)( ii) of the Act]. The 3 percent requirement cannot be waived in areas classified as extreme. The Act also provides for crediting of VOC emission reductions achieved in the 1990 1996 period to the post 1996 rate of progress plan, if they are in excess of the 15 percent VOC reductions ( net of growth) required between 1990 and 1996 [ section 182( c)( 2)( B)( ii)], and substitution of nitrogen oxides ( NOx) emission reductions ( net of growth) occurring in the post 1990 period for the post 1996 VOC emission reduction requirements [ section 182( c)( 2)( C) of the Act].

In addition to the 3 percent VOC emission reduction requirement, section 182( c)( 2) also requires the SIP for serious and above ozone nonattainment areas to provide " a demonstration that the plan, as revised, will provide for attainment of the ozone national ambient air quality standard ( NAAQS) by the applicable date." Furthermore, section 182( c)( 2) requires that the demonstration be based on photochemical grid modeling or an equivalent analytical method as determined by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA). All serious and above ozone nonattainment areas and all multi State moderate ozone nonattainment areas are required to submit their attainment demonstrations, based on the use of a photochemical grid model such as the Urban Airshed Model ( UAM), to EPA by November 15, 1994. It is important to note that the underlying requirement of the SIP is that nonattainment areas achieve attainment of the ozone NAAQS by their attainment date. That is, additional reductions beyond the required 3 percent per year VOC emission reductions may be needed for the nonattainment area to attain the NAAQS by its applicable date.

This document focuses on the calculation of post 1996 target levels, the required submittals and submittal schedules for each element of the post 1996 rate of progress plan and attainment demonstration, and the development of control strategies to achieve the required emission reductions. This document also provides States with information on acceptable data sources and procedures for projecting emissions. ACRONYMS ( continued)

2 Significant overlap occurs between concepts relating to the 15 percent rate of progress plan and concepts relating to the post 1996 plan. Where such overlap occurs, the applicable guidance documents developed for the 15 percent rate of progress plan are referenced. One significant difference between the two plans is that unlike the 15 percent plan, NOx emission reductions can be substituted for the required VOC emission reductions in the post 1996 plan. Guidance is provided on how States can calculate the amount of NOx emission reductions that can be substituted for VOC emission reductions.

This document also describes the EPA requirements for an attainment demonstration based on photochemical grid modeling and discusses the role of NOx reductions in attainment demonstrations. Additionally, this document discusses the general implications of milestone and attainment failures for serious and above ozone nonattainment areas. Specific requirements for milestone compliance demonstrations and consequences of failure to meet a milestone will be addressed in future rulemaking. This document also provides a sample checklist to aid States in a step by step review of their rate ofprogress plans to ensure that they contain all of the necessary components required for approval by EPA. Finally, this document provides blank forms that States are encouraged to use to document and submit their post 1996 rate of progress plans. ACRONYMS ( continued)

3 1.0 INTRODUCTION Section 182( c)( 2) of the Act requires each serious and above ozone nonattainment area to submit a SIP revision by November 15, 1994, which provides for an actual VOC emission reduction of at least 3 percent per year averaged over each consecutive 3 year period beginning 6 years after enactment of the Act ( i. e., November 15, 1996) until the area attains the ozone standard. The attainment dates prescribed by section 181( a) of the Act are as follows:

! November 15, 1999 for serious ozone nonattainment areas.

! November 15, 2005 for severe ozone nonattainment areas.

! November 15, 2007 for severe ozone nonattainment areas with a 1986 1988 ozone design values of 0.190 ppm up to, but not including, 0.280 ppm.

! November 15, 2010 for extreme ozone nonattainment areas.

If an area's attainment demonstration shows that the area will attain before the statutory attainment date, the post 1996 rate of progress plan is only required to extend to the demonstrated attainment date.

The portion of the SIP revision that illustrates the plan for the achievement of the post 1996 emission reductions is subsequently defined in this document as the " post 1996 rate of progress plan." The SIP must also describe how any growth in emissions over each applicable period will be offset.

The Act also mandates a 15 percent VOC emission reduction, net of growth, between 1990 and 1996. The SIP revision describing how this requirement will be met was due by November 15, 1993. The plan for these 1990 1996 reductions is termed the " 15 percent rate of progress plan." The EPA has published guidance documents describing the procedures to follow in developing the 15 percent rate ofprogress plans. Because many of the issues discussed in these documents are also associated with concerns relating to the development of the post 1996 rate of progress plan, States should review the following documents pertaining to the 15 percent rate of progress plans:

! Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans, EPA 452/ R 92 005, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. October 1992.

! Guidance on the Relationship Between the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans and Other Provisions of the Clean Air Act, EPA 452/ R 93 007, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. May 1993.

! Guidance for Growth Factors, Projections, and Control Strategies for the 15 Percent Rateof Progress Plans, EPA 452/ R 93 002, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. March 1993.

! Guidance on Preparing Enforceable Regulations and Compliance Programs for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans, EPA 452/ R 93 005, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. June 1993.

The SIP for serious and above ozone nonattainment areas due by November 15, 1994 must also include " a demonstration that the plan, as revised, will provide for attainment of the ozone NAAQS by the ACRONYMS ( continued)

4 applicable date" [ section 182( c)( 2)( A)]. This demonstration must be based on photochemical grid modeling, such as UAM, or an equivalent analytical method as determined by EPA. This requirement also applies to all multi State moderate ozone nonattainment areas. Additionally, those intrastate moderate nonattainment areas that opt to use photochemical grid modeling for their attainment demonstrations must also submit their demonstrations by November 15, 1994. It is important to note that the underlying requirement of the SIP is that nonattainment areas attain the NAAQS by their attainment date. That is, achievement of the 3 percent per year VOC emission reduction requirement may not provide all of an area's mandated emission reductions.

Section 182( c)( 2)( B)( ii) permits less than a 3 percent per year VOC emission reduction averaged over each consecutive 3 year period for serious and severe ozone nonattainment areas if the State demonstrates that the plan includes all measures that, given technological achievability, can feasibly be implemented in the given area. Additionally, the State must demonstrate that its plan includes measures that are achieved in practice by sources in the same source category in nonattainment areas of the next higher classification. The 3 percent requirement cannot be waived in areas classified as extreme. The Act also provides for crediting of VOC emission reductions achieved in the 1990 1996 period to the post 1996 rate of progress plan, if they are in excess of the 15 percent VOC reductions ( net of growth) required between 1990 and 1996 [ section 182( c)( 2)( B)( ii)], and substitution of NOx emission reductions ( net of growth) occurring in the post 1990 period for the post 1996 VOC emission reduction requirements [ section 182( c)( 2)( C)].

Demonstrating achievement of the 15 percent VOC emission reductions by November 15, 1996, and then subsequently demonstrating achievement of the 3 percent per year VOC emission reductions averaged over each consecutive 3 year period from November 15, 1996 until the attainment date, are termed milestone demonstrations. Achievement of the milestones must be demonstrated within 90 days of the milestone date ( e. g., the 9 percent reduction required by November 15, 1999 must be demonstrated by February 13, 2000). Moderate areas are not required to submit such a demonstration. Serious and above nonattainment areas will not be required to demonstrate achievement of the milestone if the milestone date and attainment date are the same, and the standard has been attained. The EPA will instead determine whether the nonattainment area has attained the ozone NAAQS based on the nonattainment area's air quality data for the previous 3 years. However, to comply with the rate of progress requirements, nonattainment areas are required to develop a plan for milestone emission reductions ( i. e., a post 1996 rateof progress plan) up through their attainment date.

The EPA expects to promulgate in late 1994 a milestone compliance demonstration rule that will address this requirement. The rule will also address summary data needs, detailed reporting requirements, and the consequences of submitting an inadequate demonstration ( in terms of documentation) as well as consequences of failure to demonstrate the 15 percent and 3 percent per year emission reduction requirements.

1.1 Purpose This document provides guidance on the procedures that States should follow in calculating target levels of emissions, projecting emission inventories and creditable emission reductions, and developing and presenting control measures which serious and above ozone nonattainment areas must include in their post 1996 rate of progress plans. Fully adopted post 1996 rate of progress plans are due to EPA by November 15, 1994.

The post 1996 rate of progress plan must account for the effects of emissions growth projected to occur in a nonattainment area. This document provides information and references on acceptable data sources and procedures for projecting emissions using growth factors. ACRONYMS ( continued)

5 Attainment demonstration requirements are described for those nonattainment areas that are required or choose to use photochemical grid modeling. This section also discusses special air quality situations involving attainment demonstrations.

Unlike the 15 percent rate of progress plan, NOx reductions, net of growth, can be substituted for the required post 1996 VOC reductions. This document explains how to calculate the amount of NOx reductions available to an ozone nonattainment area to meet the post 1996 rate of progress requirements and the role of NOx reductions in attainment demonstrations based on photochemical grid modeling .

A key component of the post 1996 rate of progress plan is the control measures that the States adopt and implement to reduce VOC and or NOx emissions to meet the 3 percent per year reduction requirements. States are referenced to further documentation of stationary and mobile source control measures and economic incentive programs ( EIP's) if they wish to employ a particular control measure toward the post 1996 rate of progress plan and/ or attainment demonstration. The regulatory concepts of long term measures ( for serious and above nonattainment areas) and new technologies ( for extreme nonattainment areas) are discussed as ways for States to obtain additional time to plan for and adopt certain control measures that require complex analyses or other time consuming activities. The purpose of this discussion is to guide States as to how EPA intends to administer these two concepts in the context of the rate of progress plan requirements.

The Act requires that States with ozone nonattainment areas include contingency measures in their SIP's [ sections 172( c)( 9) and 182( c)( 9)]. The contingency measures are the additional controls to be implemented in the event of a milestone or attainment failure. This document discusses contingency measures to provide States with guidance on how to comply with the contingency measure requirements for serious and above ozone nonattainment areas.

A final purpose of this document is to provide the States with a suggested format for their post 1996 rate of progress control strategy submittals and describe the documentation requirements for attainment demonstrations based on photochemical grid modeling. ACRONYMS ( continued)

6 ACRONYMS ( continued)

7 2.0 CALCULATION OF POST 1996 TARGET LEVELS To determine their control strategies for achieving the post 1996 VOC emission reductions, States will need to calculate the target level of emissions for each milestone and attainment year. This section explains the procedures for calculating the target level of emissions for each milestone and attainment date to which serious and above ozone nonattainment areas are subject.

Emissions and emission reductions for the post 1996 plan are calculated on a typical weekday basis for the " peak" 3 month ozone period ( generally June through August). States will need to document how they calculated the targets for each of their applicable milestone and attainment dates. The documentation will need to show the 3 percent per year emission reduction levels averaged over each period between consecutive milestone dates and the target level of emissions for each milestone.

Table 1 presents the post 1996 milestone and attainment dates for serious and above ozone nonattainment areas.

TABLE 1. SERIOUS AND ABOVE OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA POST 1996 MILESTONE AND ATTAINMENT DATES Nonattainment Classification Milestone Date( s) Primary NAAQS Attainment Date Serious Nov. 15, 1999 Nov. 15, 1999 Severe1 Nov. 15, 1999, 2002, & 2005 Nov. 15, 2005 Severe2 Nov. 15, 1999, 2002, 2005, & 2007 Nov. 15, 2007 Extreme Nov. 15, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, & 2010 Nov. 15, 2010 1 With an ozone design value of less than 0.190 ppm. 2 With a 1986 1988 ozone design value of 0.190 ppm up to, but not including, 0.280 ppm.

If an area's attainment demonstration shows that the area will attain before the statutory attainment date, the post 1996 rate of progress plan is only required to extend to the demonstrated attainment date.

2.1 Calculation of Post 1996 Target Level( s) of Emissions The target level( s) of emissions represents the maximum amount of emissions that a nonattainment area can emit for a given target year while complying with the post 1996 rate of progress plan requirements. Figure 1 outlines the general approach to calculating the target level of ACRONYMS ( continued) 8 a = 1990y FMVCP/ RVP EMISSIONS *  Does not include preenactment banked emissions reduction credits FINAL BASE YEAR ( 1990) INVENTORY* 1990 RATE OF PROGRESS BASE YEAR INVENTORY 1990 ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY CALCULATED RELATIVE TO YEAR x ( BEx) EMISSIONS REDUCTION REQUIRED BETWEEN YEAR y AND YEAR x ( BGr)

SUBTRACT BIOGENICS,

EMISSIONS OUTSIDE NONATTAINMENT AREA SUBTRACT FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND YEAR x multiply by r FLEET TURNOVER CORRECTION ( FTx) = a  b x = current target year y = previous target year TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR y ( TLy)

TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR x ( TLx) =

( TLy  BGr  FTx) b = 1990x FMVCP/ RVP EMISSIONS B A C D E Figu re 1. Flowchart for generic post 1996 rate of progress VOC target level calculation ACRONYMS ( c 9 VOC emissions. Two eq post 1996 target levels. Th Target level = ( previous milestone's progress requirement)  ( fleet turnove or TLx = TLy  BGr  FTx where:

x = Current milestone or attainment year y Year of previous milestone TLx = Target level of emissions for year x ( in pounds ( lb)/ day)

TLy = Target level of emissions for year y ( in lb/ day)

BGr = Emission reduction requirement for year x ( in lb/ day)

FTx = Fleet turnover correction term x day).

This equation can be used to calculate the target level of emissions for each target level for each milestone year ( TLx ) is calculated by subtracting the 3 pe progress emission reduction ( BGr ) and the fleet turnover correction term ( FTx ) f year ( TLy ). The specific steps needed to calculate target are discussed below.

There are six major steps in calculating a post 1996 target level of emissions. The first are needed to calculate the 3 percent per year rate of progress emission reductions. Steps developing the 1990 base year inventory and the 1990 rate of progress inventory, were requ been submitted by States in 15 percent rate of progress plan. The EPA document entitled the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate of Prog Plans ( see reference 1), describes these two inventories in more detail.

Step 1: Develop the 1990 base year inventory The total 1990 base year emissions from the four emission source types ( point, area, mobile, and biogenic) are compiled. It should be noted that the base year inventory used for the post 1996 rate of

progress plan must be consistent with the base year inventory used for attainment demonstration purposes.

Any changes that were made to the inventory between submittal of the 15 percent rate of progress plan and the post 1996 rate of progress plan should be reflected.

Step 2: Develop the 1990 rate of progress base year inventory Biogenic source emissions and other emissions from sources located outside the nonattainment area, but included in step 1, are removed from 1990 base year inventory.

Step 3: Calculate the 1990 adjusted base year inventory The Act specifies the emissions " baseline" from which each emission reduction milestone is calculated. Section 182( c)( 2)( B) states that the reductions must be achieved " from the baseline emissions described in subsection ( b)( 1)( B)." This baseline value is termed the 1990 adjusted base year inventory.

Section 182( b)( 1)( B) defines baseline emissions ( for purposes of calculating each milestone VOC/ NOx emission reduction) as " the total amount of actual VOC or NOx emissions from all anthropogenic sources in the area during the calendar year of enactment." This section excludes from the baseline the emissions ACRONYMS ( c 10 that would be eliminated January 1, 1990, and Reid v ( 55 FR 23666, June 11, 1990)

nonattainment areas during the p The 1990 adjusted base year inventor attainment date because the emission re turnover. Thus, a severe ozone nonattainm would need to calculate the 1990 adjusted ba adjustment that must be made to the inventory including emissions from vehicle refueling, using separate mobile source emission factor for each appl multiplied by 1990 vehicle miles traveled ( VMT), or g mobile source emissions that must be subtracted from the calculate the 1990 adjusted base year inventory for each mil calculated as follows:

FMVCP/ RVP Reductions Between 1990 and Current Target Year ( x) Subtract Adjusted 1990 mobile source emissions = ( 1990 VMT)( MOBILE5a emission from Actual 1990 mobile source emissions = ( 1990 VMT)( MOBILE5a emission factors from A) MOBILE5a run from the 1990 base year inventory. Emission factors from this run will b with actual 1990 VMT to calculate actual 1990 emissions. If the refueling emission factor is calculated in MOBILE5a as a grams per gallon of gasoline factor, that factor should be multiplied by actual 1990 gasoline throughput and those emissions should be included in the 1990 actual mobile source emissions.

B) MOBILE5a run as in the 1990 base year inventory, except that year " x" will be used as the evaluation year ( this will change the vehicle mix to account for fleet turnover). Emission factors from this run will be used with actual 1990 VMT to calculate adjusted 1990 emissions relative to year " x." If the refueling emission factor is calculated in MOBILE5a as a grams per gallon of gasoline factor, that factor should be multiplied by actual 1990 gasoline throughput and those emissions should be included in the adjusted mobile source emissions.

A detailed description of the procedure for calculating the 1990 adjusted base year inventory is provided in an EPA document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans. ( See reference 1.) The adjusted base year inventory can be calculated the same way for each post 1996 milestone/ attainment year. After this inventory has been calculated for each applicable milestone and attainment year, the next step is to determine the required creditable emission reductions.

Step 4: Calculate 3 percent per year reductions In general, to compute the required emission reductions, the number of years between successive milestone dates ( or in some cases between a milestone date and the attainment date) should be 0.03. If an area plans to substitute NOx for VOC, however, the percent reduction will have to adjusted.

This is discussed in more detail in section 4 of this document. ACRONYMS ( c 11 Percentage reduction = r where:

( x y) = Number of years between c For example, an extreme area would m reduction between 2008 and 2010. Next,

inventory calculated relative the current m reduction.

BGr = BEx * r where:

BGr = Emission reduction requirement for milestone or attain BEx = 1990 adjusted base year inventory calculated relative to year x r = Percent reduction needed to meet the rate of progress requiremen The fifth step is to calculate the fleet turnover correction term.

Step 5: Calculate fleet turnover correction term In the absence of any new requirements of the Act, there would still be some decrease vehicle emission factors for many years as a result of fleet turnover, the gradual replacem control vehicles with newer vehicles with controls. The Act does not allow States to take reductions for rate of progress purposes. During the calculation of the 1996 milestone target, these " FMVCP reductions" ( along non creditable RVP reductions) that would occu 1990 and 1996 were subtracted from the 1990 rate of progress base year inventory to calculate the adjusted base year inventory. This 1990 adjusted base year inventory was then used to calculate the required reductions and the 1996 target.

Because nonattainment areas are required to meet their 1996 targets, the calculation of the 1999 target must be based, in part, on the 1996 target. Likewise, the calculation of each subsequent target will depend, in part, on the level of the previous In the previous step ( step 4), the adjusted base year inventory was multiplied by the total percent required reduction in order to determine the reductions required in target year. This emission reduction requirement must then be subtracted from the emission target in the previous milestone year to calculate the new milestone target. However, one additional correction term, the fleet turnover correction, is needed properly calculate the target.

The fleet turnover correction is needed to account for the mobile source emission reductions that would have occurred under the preenactment FMVCP and RVP requirements ( under 55 FR 23666),

between consecutive milestone years. For example, assume that a nonattainment area has met the milestone target for 1996. The further creditable reduction required to meet the post 1996 rate of progress requirements was calculated step 4. However, between 1996 and 1999, there will be some additional reductions in emissions due to fleet turnover of older vehicles that are not creditable. These reductions must also be subtracted from the 1996 target to determine the 1999 target. These additional, non

creditable, reductions are referred to here as the fleet turnover correction term.

The calculation of the fleet turnover correction term is simple and does not require any additional MOBILE runs beyond what has been required in previous steps of this calculation. For the general case,

the fleet turnover correction term is calculated as follows: ACRONYMS ( c 12 Fleet Turnover Correctio where:

x = current target year y = previous target year 1990y FMVCP/ RVP = Adjusted 1990 mo year 1990x FMVCP/ RVP = Adjusted 1990 mobile year.

The adjusted 1990 mobile source emissions for the c step 3 as 1990 VMT times MOBILE5a emission factor Act measures disabled and RVP set to the Phase 2 limit r mobile source emissions for the previous target year were c level calculation for the previous year. For example, the fleet equal to the adjusted mobile source emissions calculated for the the adjusted mobile source emissions calculated in step 3 of the cur Step 6: Calculate post 1996 target level of emissions To calculate each target level of emissions, the required emission reductions and the fleet turnover correction term from step 5 are subtracted from the previo For the purposes of calculating the 1999 target, it may be necessary to recalculate base year inventory was significantly revised after submittal of the 15 percent rate of Target level = ( previous milestone's target level)  ( reductions required to meet the rate of

progress requirement, calculated in step 4)  ( fleet turnover correction term,

calculated in step 5).

This target represents the level of emissions that must be achieved in order for a nonattainment area to demonstrate that the rate of progress requirement will be met.

2.2 Example Calculation of Post 1996 Target Level( s)

This section presents a hypothetical example that calculates a target level for 1999. This example builds on the example contained in the EPA document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans ( see reference 1), and assumes that no changes have been made to base year emission inventory. Figure 2 outlines the procedure to follow to calculate the target.

Calculation of 1999 Target Level of Emissions Step 1: Develop 1990 base year VOC emission inventory ( lb/ day)

Point Sources 1,000 Area Sources 2,500 Mobile 3,500 Biogenic Sources + 5,000 ACRONYMS ( c 13 Total 12,000 Step 2: Develop 1990 rate of prog 1990 base year inventory =

12,000 Point Sources ( outside nonattainment area)

 200 Area Sources ( outside nonattainment area)

 500 Mobile ( outside nonattainment area)

 500 Biogenic Sources  5,000 Total 5,800 ACRONYMS ( continued) 14 a = 1990y FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS ( 600 lb/ day)

*  Does not include preenactment banked emissions reduction credits FINAL BASE YEAR ( 1990) INVENTORY*

12,000 lb/ day 1990 RATE OF PROGRESS BASE YEAR INVENTORY 5,800 lb/ day 1990 ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY CALCULATED RELATIVE TO YEAR x ( BEx)

5,200 lb/ day EMISSIONS REDUCTION REQUIRED BETWEEN YEAR y AND YEAR x ( BGr)

468 lb/ day SUBTRACT BIOGENICS ( 5,000 lb/ day),

EMISSIONS OUTSIDE NONATTAINMENT AREA ( 1,200 lb/ day) SUBTRACT FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND YEAR x ( 600 lb/ day) multiply by r= 0.09 FLEET TURNOVER CORRECTION ( FTx) = a  b 100 lb/ day x = current target year = 1999 y = previous target year = 1996 TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR y ( TLy)

4,000 lb/ day TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR x ( TLx) =

( TLy  BGr  FTx)

3,432 lb/ day b = 1990x FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS ( 500 lb/ day)

B A C D E Figu re 2. Flowchart of hypothetical example 1999 rate of progress VOC target level calculation ACRONYMS ( c 15 Step 3: Calculate the 19 The only adjustment that mus source emission reductions using emission factor for 1999, multiplyi 1990 actual mobile source emissions For this example, the State calculates th turnover up through 1999 and the RVP lim following is the adjusted base year inventory 1990 Adjusted Base Year Inventory ( lb/ day)

= 1990 rate of progress inventory  ( FMVCP and RVP 1999)

= 5,800 lb/ day  600 lb/ day = 5,200 lb/ day.

Step 4: Calculate 3 percent per year reductions The 1990 adjusted base year inventory calculated relative to the 1999 m by 0.09 to calculate the required emission reductions from 1996 to 1999.

9 percent reduction = 5,200 x 0.09 = 468 lb/ day Step 5: Calculate fleet turnover correction term The fleet turnover correction term is the difference between the FMVCP/ RVP emission re calculated in step 3 and the previous milestone year's FMVCP/ RVP emission reductions. In hypothetical example, the FMVCP/ RVP reductions calculated relative to 1996 are assumed to lb/ day. Therefore, the fleet turnover correction term for 1999 is 100 lb/ day ( i. e., 600 lb/ day  500 Step 6: Calculate target level of emissions for 1999 To calculate the target level of emissions for 1999, the required emission reductions calculated in step 4 and the fleet turnover correction term are subtracted from the 1996 milestone target level. The 1996 target level was calculated to be 4,000 lb/ day in the EPA document Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plan ( see reference 1).

Target level = ( 1996 milestone target level)  ( reductions calculated in step 4)  ( fleet turnover correction term calculated in step 5)

= 1996 target level  ( 5,200 lb/ day * 0.09)  ( 600 lb/ day  500 lb/ day)

= 4,000 lb/ day  468 lb/ day  100 lb/ day = 3,432 lb/ day This area's plan must therefore demonstrate that the projected emissions for 1999, reflecting the adopted control strategy, will be less than or equal to 3,432 lb/ day. ACRONYMS ( c 16 2.3 Conditions Permittin A State may be permitted to a demonstrates that the plan includ implemented in the given area. In are achieved in practice by sources in classification. The measures necessary basis. Any determination to lessen the 3 p demonstration, and revised to include any ne category in any State, allowing a reasonable tim It is important to note that the waiver provision does areas. Furthermore, States must understand that the att requirement of the Act. Although less than a 3 percent V purposes of satisfying the rate of progress requirements, a S in its SIP to attain the ozone NAAQS by its applicable attainm demonstrate attainment to obtain a waiver, the waiver does not re obligation to demonstrate attainment. ACRONYMS ( c 17 3.0 ATTAINMENT DE This section of the document nonattainment areas that are requ air quality situations involving atta 3.1 Modeling Requirements for Attain The UAM is described in the EPA document ( see reference 2). In addition, the General Prea attainment demonstration implications of using U Procedures to follow in applying photochemical grid demonstration are described in Guideline for Regulatory reference 3). Chapters 1 and 2 of the Guideline identify est protocol identifies Technical Committees whose responsibiliti and specific meteorological episodes to be modeled ( note that the than the nonattainment area); ( 2) develop compatible inputs for the specific quality, wind fields, and emissions; ( 3) apply the model an performance is acceptable; ( 4) develop projected emissions for the requi the model using projected emissions see whether predicted ozone concen ( ppb) or less throughout the modeling domain ( i. e., the model demonstrates a not demonstrate attainment, additional control measures must be developed and evaluated. This is an iterative process until attainment is demonstrated.

It should be noted that both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions are included in the m Also, for consistency the projected emissions should reflect the control measures used to o percent VOC emission reduction required between 1990 and 1996, additional annual 3 perce thereafter, and where necessary, additional control measures to achieve attainment.

The required modeling protocol should also identify a Policy Oversight Committee. This group provides input on the strategies to be tested and is responsible for reaching consensus on the strategy t implement in the 1994 SIP revision.

The modeling demonstration supporting the 1994 SIP revision should be submitted to the appropriate U. S. EPA Regional Office( s) by November 15, 1994. The Regional Office will then evaluate the plan and prepare a technical support document ( TSD) assessing the adequacy of the documentation of the analysis. The following should be provided by States to support preparation of this document: ( 1) the modeling protocol with episode dates and the modeling domain defined; ( 2) the emissions input preparation for the base case inventory, emission projections and emission estimates derived for the attainment demonstration to be implemented in the 1994 SIP revision; ( 3) air quality and meteorological input preparations for the selected episodes; ( 4) diagnostic analyses used to troubleshoot model performance,

including the rationale for revisions to inputs which resulted; ( 5) results of the model performance evaluation; ( 6) air quality predictions corresponding with the attainment demonstration to be implemented in the SIP; and ( 7) procedures which the EPA or other interested parties can follow to gain access to all relevant input and output files so as to replicate results, if desired. Each of these seven required components is described in greater detail in Guidance on Urban Airshed Model ( UAM) Reporting Requirements for Attainment Demonstration ( see reference 4). Regional Offices are encouraging States to submit these items as soon as possible to receive early feedback.

States should plan to achieve emission reductions as early in the process as possible, since section 181( b)( 2) requires EPA to make a determination as to whether an area has attained the ozone NAAQS within 6 months following an applicable attainment date. This requirement dictates the use of the most ACRONYMS ( c 18 recent 3 years of air qual NAAQS. For example, for quality data for 1997  1999 to the General Preamble ( 57 FR 13 3.2 Special Air Quality Situations Areas Requiring Emission Reductions in A There may be circumstances under which a non of the NAAQS will require additional VOC and/ o reduction mandated in section 182( c)( 2)( B)( i). The areas must achieve attainment of the NAAQS by their percent per year reduction requirement.

Multi State Nonattainment Areas Section 182( j) defines and establishes requirements for ozone nona in more than one State called multi State nonattainment areas. Beyon the different nonattainment area classifications, section 182( j)( 1) require coordinate the revisions and implementation of the SIP's applicable to the n photochemical grid modeling ( or another method determined by EPA) as par process.

A joint modeling demonstration must be submitted by all States in the modeling dom will not to approve any attainment demonstration unless all of the affected States have This demonstration should identify the strategy be used for attainment and should iden reduction necessary each State. The demonstration should reference the applicable model and include a schedule for developing control measures and the attainment demonstration for t multi State area. Where all of the States are in the same Region, only one modeling demonstratio submitted. If the States are in different Regions, the demonstration should be sent to each Region.

addition, each State must individually submit regulations to achieve the necessary reductions for that S Section 182( j)( 2) recognizes that if any State in which there is located a portion of a multi State nonattainment area fails to provide a demonstration of attainment within the required period, the State may petition EPA to make a finding that the State( s) would have been able to make such a demonstration " but for the failure of one or more other States, which other portions of the area are located, to commit to the implementation of all measures required by section 182...." If the EPA Administrator makes a finding that this situation is occurring, the sanctions of section 179 shall not apply to the petitioning State( s). Section III. A. 9 of the General Preamble provides the primary guidance for these nonattainment area SIP's ( 57 FR 13529).

States Included in More than One Modeling Domain There are a number of cases where a State is included in more than one modeling domain. In this situation, the State must ensure that control measures are applied consistently in all model applications.

International Border Areas Section 179B applies to nonattainment areas that are affected by emissions emanating from outside the United States. This section provides relief for nonattainment areas along international borders analogous to what is provided to States within multi State nonattainment areas by section 182( j): EPA shall approve the SIP if it meets all the requirements in the Act and if the State establishes that the ACRONYMS ( c 19 implementation of the pl emissions emanating from the Act) section V. C of th areas.

Areas with Differing Required Attain There are several situations in which areas with earlier attainment dates. In some cases,

nonattainment areas of varying severity. A com nonattainment area( s) ( required attainment date of nonattainment area. In other cases, an area may be i Each ozone nonattainment area is still subject to the appl attainment under section 182( b)( 1)( A) and ( c)( 2). For exam transport region is still subject to the 6 year deadlin However, this area is ( at least, presumptively) being affected by possibly affecting other areas, as well. If the areas that are affecting have a higher classification, that moderate area may be receiving trans exceeding the NAAQS well after its own mandatory attainment date.

In general, two situations exist in which an area might be subject to additiona requirements related to the demonstration of attainment. In the first, an area mi levels of transport that even if it reduced its own emissions dramatically ( e. g., tota emissions), the incoming ozone and precursors would be high enough to continue to standard beyond the applicable attainment date. In the second situation, the area might additional reductions ( beyond those required under section 182), but even where those add could be achieved to demonstrate attainment, the question arises whether it is equitable to re reductions or to allow more time for the reductions in the " upwind" area to take place. The Ac express relief for these situations. Thus, where the demonstration of attainment is complicated by between two areas of different classifications, the State is still responsible for developing and subm demonstrations which show that the standard will be attained by the applicable date. In other words, t State must provide for sufficient emission reductions on a schedule that will ensure attainment by the deadline prescribed in the Act ( e. g., by 1996 for moderate areas). The area does have the option of requesting to be reclassified the next higher classification.

When such areas develop the demonstration of attainment due in November 1994, they should provide a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of all control measures being implemented in both the local and upwind areas. States should clearly show the extent to which the downwind area is dependent on upwind strategies while fully meeting its own requirements associated with its classification. The EPA will continue working with States facing this situation to resolve these issues.

Exceedances Monitored within a Modeling Domain Due Primarily to Emissions in Another Domain Generally, episodes in which emissions included within a modeling domain do not play a significant role in contributing to monitored exceedances within that domain should not be modeled in an attainment demonstration. Guidance on " overwhelming transport" contained in sections 3.1 and 3.2 of Criteria for Assessing the Role of Transported Ozone/ Precursors in Ozone Nonattainment Areas ( see reference 5) may be used to identify unsuitable episodes. Alternatively, diagnostic tests described in section 4.3 of Guideline for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed Model ( see reference 3) may be used to identify unsuitable episodes. Note that this guidance is not saying that episodes in which transported ozone/ precursors play an important role are unsuitable for modeling. This guidance is singling out cases in ACRONYMS ( c 20 which drastic changes in in predicted daily maximum An episode which is otherwise c Regulatory Application of the Urb this case, evidence should be presente the upwind domain( s) identified as likel has been reached that the upwind area( s) w pattern to ensure that predicted concentration downwind grid are at or below 120 ppb. Sectio means for facilitating such interdomain coordinati evidence of a good faith effort to implement resultin ACRONYMS ( c 21 4.0 NO X EMISSION RED Section 182( c)( 2)( C) of the A occur after 1990 to meet post 19 describes the procedure for calcula emission reduction requirements.

4.1 Substitution of NO x Emission Reduct Section 182( c)( 2)( C) states that actual NOx emi used to meet post 1996 emission reduction requir outlined in EPA's December 15, 1993 NOx Substitut progress requirement is that the sum of all creditable V percent per year averaged over each applicable milestone from the VOC rate of progress inventory and the percent N of progress inventory. In addition, overall VOC and NOx modeled attainment demonstration. In other words, the NOx emi of progress plan cannot be greater than the cumulative reductions demonstration. This is necessary because there may be a number of d be used to show attainment, the rate of progress plan must be consis the State as its attainment strategy. It should be noted, however, that if a S corrections to demonstration, it can also make corresponding c plan.

Although the NOx supplement to the General Preamble does not specify that photoch modeling must used for this demonstration, this modeling is generally necessary to d to which NOx can be substituted for VOC. In addition, use of photochemical grid modeli substitution demonstrations would be consistent with requirements that photochemical mode justify exempting the area from NOx controls or lessening the amount of NOx controls required If a State plans to substitute NOx reductions for VOC reductions, separate target level( s) of emissions will have to be calculated for both NOx and VOC. Figure 3 provides an overview of the procedure for calculating the VOC target level and Figures 4 and 4a provides an overview of the procedu for calculating the NOx target level. The target levels are calculated as discussed in section 2 of this document with some exceptions.

4.2 Calculation of Post 1996 NO x and VOC Target Levels of Emissions The target levels of emissions represent the maximum amount of emissions allowed in each post

1996 milestone year given the 3 percent per year rate of progress requirement. The target level( s) of VOC emissions can be calculated using the following equation: ACRONYMS ( continued) 22 a = 1990y FMVCP/ RVP EMISSIONS *  Does not include preenactment banked emissions reduction credits FINAL BASE YEAR ( 1990) INVENTORY* 1990 RATE OF PROGRESS BASE YEAR INVENTORY 1990 ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY CALCULATED RELATIVE TO YEAR x ( BEx) EMISSIONS REDUCTION REQUIRED BETWEEN YEAR y AND YEAR x ( BGr)

SUBTRACT BIOGENICS,

EMISSIONS OUTSIDE NONATTAINMENT AREA SUBTRACT FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND YEAR x multiply by rVOC FLEET TURNOVER CORRECTION ( FTx) = a  b x = current target year y = previous target year TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR y ( TLy)

TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR x ( TLx) =

( TLy  BGr  FTx) b = 1990x FMVCP/ RVP EMISSIONS B A C D E Figu re 3. Flow char t for generic post 1996 rate of progress VOC calculations ( with NOx substitution) ACRONYMS ( continued) 23 *  Does not include preenactment banked emissions reduction credits FINAL BASE YEAR ( 1990) INVENTORY* 1990 RATE OF PROGRESS BASE YEAR INVENTORY 1990 ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY CALCULATED RELATIVE TO YEAR x ( BEx) EMISSIONS REDUCTION REQUIRED BETWEEN 1990 AND YEAR x ( BGr)

SUBTRACT EMISSIONS OUTSIDE NONATTAINMENT AREA SUBTRACT FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND YEAR x multiply by n TOTAL EXPECTED REDUCTIONS BY YEAR x x = current target year TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR x ( A  C) B A C D ADD REDUCTIONS FROM:

FMVCP/ RVP Figu re 4. Flow chart for rate of progress NOx calculation for 1999 ACRONYMS ( continued) 24 a = 1990y FMVCP/ RVP EMISSIONS *  Does not include preenactment banked emissions reduction credits FINAL BASE YEAR ( 1990) INVENTORY* 1990 RATE OF PROGRESS BASE YEAR INVENTORY 1990 ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY CALCULATED RELATIVE TO YEAR x ( BEx) EMISSIONS REDUCTION REQUIRED BETWEEN YEAR y AND YEAR x ( BGr)

SUBTRACT BIOGENICS,

EMISSIONS OUTSIDE NONATTAINMENT AREA SUBTRACT FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND YEAR x multiply by n FLEET TURNOVER CORRECTION ( FTx) = a  b x = current target year y = previous target year TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR y ( TLy)

TARGET LEVEL FOR YEAR x ( TLx) =

( TLy  BGr  FTx) b = 1990x FMVCP/ RVP EMISSIONS B A C D E Figu re 4a. Flow char t for generic post 1999 rate of progress NOx calculations ACRONYMS ( c 25 TLx, VOC = TLy, VOC  BGr, VO where:

x = Current milestone or attainme y = Year of previous milestone TLx, VOC = Target level of VOC emissio TLy, VOC = Target level of VOC emissions BGr, VOC = Emission reduction requirement f FTx, VOC = Fleet turnover correction term for V The target level of NOx emissions for 1999 can be TL1999 = 1990 ROP  BGr, NOx  FMVCP/ RVP1999 where:

1990 ROP = 1990 rate of progress NOx inventory BGr, NOx = NOx emission reduction requirement for 1999 ( in lb/ day FMVCP/ RVP1999 = FMVCP/ RVP NOx reductions calculated relative The target level of NOx emissions for years after 1999 can be calculated TLx, NOx = TLy, NOx  BGr, NOx  FTx, NOx where:

x = Current milestone or attainment y = Year of previous milestone TLx, NOx = Target level of NOx emissions for year x (

TLy, NOx = Target level of NOx emissions for year y ( in lb/ day)

BGr, NOx = Emission reduction requirement for NOx for year x ( in lb/ day)

FTx, NOx = Fleet turnover correction term for NOx for year x ( in lb/ day).

These equations can be used to calculate the target level of emissions for each post 1996 milestone ye The reason that the 1999 NOx target is calculated differently is that there is not a 1996 NOx target that ca be used to calculate the 1999 target. Once the 1999 NOx target is established it can be used to calculate the next target. The specific steps needed to calculate each target are discussed below.

There are six major steps in calculating a post 1996 target level of emissions. The first four steps are needed to calculate the 3 percent per year rate of progress emission reduction. The first three of these steps, developing the 1990 base year inventory, developing the 1990 rate of progress inventory, and developing the adjusted base year inventory were discussed in detail for VOC in section 2 of this document.

The following describes how the post 1996 target levels should be calculated when NOx substitution for VOC will occur.

Step 1: Develop the 1990 base year inventory The total 1990 base year VOC and NOx emissions from the five major emission source categories ( point, area, on road and off road mobile, and biogenic) are compiled. It should be noted that the base year inventory used for the post 1996 rate of progress plan must be consistent with the base year inventory used for attainment demonstration purposes. Any changes that were made to the inventory between submittal of the 15 percent rate of progress plan and the post 1996 rate of progress plan should be reflected. ACRONYMS ( c 1 Most emission inventories do not contain biogenic NOx emissions. If these emissions are included,

they must be subtracted in developing the rate of progress inventory.

26 Step 2: Develop the 1990 Biogenic source emissions area, but included in step 1, ar Step 3: Calculate the 1990 adjust The Act specifies the emissions " baselin calculated. Section 182( c)( 2)( B) states tha described in subsection ( b)( 1)( B)." This bas The baseline excludes the VOC and NOx emiss promulgated by January 1, 1990, and by RVP reg ( 55 FR 23666, June 11, 1990), which require maxim nonattainment areas during the peak ozone season.

The 1990 adjusted base year inventories must be calculated attainment year because the emission reductions associated wi turnover. The only adjustment that must be made to the inventor source emissions, including VOC emissions from vehicle refueling made by calculating a separate mobile source emission factor for each emission factors are then multiplied by 1990 VMT, or gallons of gasolin the mobile source emissions that must be subtracted from the 1990 rate of

calculate the 1990 adjusted base year inventories for each milestone/ attainme calculated as follows:

FMVCP/ RVP Reductions Between 1990 and Current Target Year ( x): Subtract Adjusted 1990 mobile source emissions = ( 1990 VMT)( MOBILE5a emission factors from B)

from Actual 1990 mobile source emissions = ( 1990 VMT)( MOBILE5a emission factors from A)

A) MOBILE5a run from the 1990 base year inventory. Emission factors from this run will be used with actual 1990 VMT to calculate actual 1990 emissions. If the refueling emission factor for VOC is calculated in MOBILE5a as a grams per gallon of gasoline factor, that factor should be multiplied by actual 1990 gasoline throughput and those emissions should be included in the 1990 actual mobile source emissions.

B) MOBILE5a run as in the base year inventory, except that year " x" will be used as the evaluation year ( this will change the vehicle mix to account for fleet turnover). Emission factors from this run will be used with actual 1990 VMT to calculate adjusted 1990 emissions relative to year " x." If the refueling emission factor for VOC is calculated in MOBILE5a as a grams per gallon of gasoline factor, that factor should be multiplied by actual 1990 gasoline throughput and those emissions should be included in the 1990 adjusted mobile source emissions.

A detailed description of procedure for calculating the 1990 adjusted base year inventory is provided in an EPA document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Target ACRONYMS ( c 27 for the 15 Percent Rate o calculated the same way fo Step 4: Calculate required cred The percent reduction required is calc VOC reduction and the percent NOx red VOC reduction is equal to the number of y minus the percent ( n) that will be achieved th Percentage VOC reduction = rVOC = [ 0.03 * ( x y)]

where:

rVOC = percent VOC reduction needed to meet the rate of

Number of years between current ( x) and previous ( y) targe n = percent of reductions that will be achieved through NOx re Next, these percentage figures are multiplied by the adjusted base relative to the current milestone/ attainment date to yield the required BGr, VOC = BEx, VOC * rVOC and BGr, NOx = BEx, NOx * n where:

BGr, VOC = VOC emission reduction requirement for milestone date ( in lb/ day)

BGr, NOx = NOx emission reduction requirement for milestone date ( in lb/ day)

BEx, VOC = 1990 adjusted base year VOC inventory calculated relative to year x BEx, NOx = 1990 adjusted base year NOx inventory calculated relative to year x rVOC = percent VOC reduction needed to meet the rate of progress requirement.

n = percent NOx reduction needed to meet the rate of progress requirement.

Step 5: Calculate fleet turnover correction term For VOC and for the post 1999 NOx target, the fleet turnover correction is needed to account for the mobile source emission reductions that would have occurred under the preenactment FMVCP and RVP requirements ( under 55 FR 23666), between consecutive milestone years. The calculation of this correction for VOC is described in detail in section 2 of this document. This term is calculated the same way for NOx .

For the 1999 NOx target, different adjustments need to be made because there is not a target from a previous year that accounts for reductions between 1990 and 1996. Adjustments must be made to account for emission reductions associated with FMVCP and RVP because these emission reductions are not creditable for substitution. Unlike the adjustments made to the VOC rate of progress base year emission inventory, the effects of reasonably available control technology ( RACT) fix ups do not need to be included in the adjustment calculation because they do not affect NOx emissions. Due to the lack of a NOx performance standard for I/ M programs prior to enactment of the 1990 amendments to the Act and the negligible impact of corrections to I/ M programs on NOx emissions, the NOx target does not need to be adjusted to account for I/ M program corrections.

The NOx adjustment for FMVCP for the 1999 target is calculated as follows: ACRONYMS ( c 28 FMVCP/ RVP NOx Reductions Between 1990 and 1999: Subtract Adjusted 1990 mobile source from Actual 1990 mobile source emissions = ( 199 A) MOBILE5a run from the 1990 base year inven with actual 1990 VMT to calculate actual 1990 emis B) MOBILE5a run as in the 1990 base year inventory, exc year ( this will change the vehicle mix to account for fleet tu will be used with actual VMT to calculate adjusted 1990 Step 6: Calculate post 1996 target levels of emissions To calculate the target level VOC emissions, the required emission redu and the fleet turnover correction term from step 5 are subtracted from the p For the purposes of calculating the 1999 VOC target, it may be necessary to r the base year inventory was significantly revised after submittal of the 15 percen VOC target level = ( previous milestone's target level)  ( reductions required to meet th of progress requirement, calculated in step 4)  ( fleet turnover correction term, calculated in step 5).

The 1999 NOx target is calculated by adding the required emission reductions calculated in step to the expected reductions from the FMVCP and RVP and subtracting this total from the 1990 N of progress inventory.

NOx target level = ( 1990 NOx rate of progress inventory)  [( reductions required to meet the rate of progress requirement, calculated in step 4) + ( reductions from 1990 to target year from FMVCP and RVP, calculated in step 5)].

To calculate the post 1999 target level NOx emissions, required emission reductions calculated in step 4 and the fleet turnover correction term from step 5 are subtracted from the previous milestone's target level.

Post 1999 NOx target level = ( previous milestone's target level)  ( reductions required to meet the rate of progress requirement, calculated in step 4)  ( fleet turnover correction term, calculated in step 5).

These targets represent the level of VOC and NOx emissions that must be achieved in order for a nonattainment area to demonstrate that the rate of progress requirement will be met. Once these targets have been calculated, the overall emission levels should be compared to the area's attainment demonstration to ensure that the rate of progress plan is consistent with the strategy selected for the area's attainment demonstration. ACRONYMS ( c 29 4.3 Creditability of Pre ACRONYMS ( c 30 Under section 182( c)( 2)(

the 1990 1996 period to the reductions ( net of growth) req provides for substitution of NOx reductions. As discussed in the " G Amendments of 1990," ( 57 FR 13517 such as NOx reductions achieved as a re NOx RACT provisions may allow 30 day subject to such rules to a typical summer day 4.4 Example Calculation of Post 1996 VOC and This section presents a hypothetical example that descr show the calculation procedure for this example for VOC Calculation of 1999 Target Levels of Emissions Developing the 1990 base year inventory and the 1990 rate of prog steps in calculating the post 1996 target levels. These inventories, wh to have been submitted by the States in their 15 percent rate of progress Guidance on the Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 Ta Progress Plans ( see reference 1) describes these two inventories in more detai Step 1: Develop the 1990 base year inventory ( lb/ day)

VOC NOx Point Sources 1,000 5,000 Area Sources 2,500 2,000 Mobile 3,500 + 3,000 Biogenic Sources + 5,000  Total 12,000 10,000 Step 2: Develop 1990 rate of progress base year inventory ( lb/ day)

VOC NOx 1990 base year inventory 12,000 10,000 Point Sources  200  1,000 Area Sources  500  500 Mobile  500  700 Biogenic Sources  5,000 Total 5,800 7,800 ACRONYMS ( continued) 31 a = 1990y FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS ( 600 lb/ day)

*  Does not include preenactment banked emissions reduction credits FINAL BASE YEAR ( 1990) INVENTORY*

12,000 lb/ day 1990 RATE OF PROGRESS BASE YEAR INVENTORY 5,800 lb/ day 1990 ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY CALCULATED RELATIVE TO 1999 ( BEx)

5,200 lb/ day EMISSIONS REDUCTION REQUIRED BETWEEN 1996 AND 1999 ( BGr)

260 lb/ day SUBTRACT BIOGENICS ( 5,000 lb/ day),

EMISSIONS OUTSIDE NONATTAINMENT AREA ( 1,200 lb/ day) SUBTRACT FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND 1999 ( 600 lb/ day) multiply by rVOC= 0.05 FLEET TURNOVER CORRECTION ( FTx) = a  b 100 lb/ day x = 1999 y = 1996 TARGET LEVEL FOR 1996 ( TLy)

4,000 lb/ day TARGET LEVEL FOR 1999 ( TLx) =

( TLy  BGr  FTx)

3,640 lb/ day b = 1990x FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS ( 500 lb/ day)

B A C D E Figu re 5. Flowchart for hypothetical example 1999 rate of progress VOC calculations ( with NOx substitution) ACRONYMS ( continued) 32 *  Does not include preenactment banked emissions reduction credits FINAL BASE YEAR ( 1990) INVENTORY*

10,000 lb/ day 1990 RATE OF PROGRESS BASE YEAR INVENTORY 7,800 lb/ day 1990 ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY CALCULATED RELATIVE TO 1999 ( BEx)

7,600 lb/ day EMISSIONS REDUCTION REQUIRED BETWEEN 1990 AND 1999 ( BGr)

304 lb/ day SUBTRACT EMISSIONS OUTSIDE NONATTAINMENT AREA ( 2,200 lb/ day) SUBTRACT FMVCP/ RVP REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND 1999 ( 200 lb/ day) multiply by n= 0.04 TOTAL EXPECTED REDUCTIONS BY 1999 504 lb/ day TARGET LEVEL FOR 1999 ( A  C)

7,296 lb/ day B A C D ADD REDUCTIONS FROM:

FMVCP/ RVP ( 200 lb/ day)

Figu re 6. Flow chart for hypothetical example 1999 rate of progress NOx calculations ACRONYMS ( c 33 Step 3: Calculate the 19 The only adjustment that mus source emission reductions using emission factor for 1999, and mult emissions for the 1990 adjusted base be a reduction of 600 lb/ day of VOC du the nonattainment area in 55 FR 23666, an following is the adjusted base year inventory 1990 adjusted VOC base year inventory = 1990 VO FMVCP/ RVP reductions = 5,800  600 lb/ day = 5,200 lb/ day.

1990 adjusted NOx base year inventory = 1990 NOx rate of prog FMVCP/ RVP reductions = 7,800 lb/ day  200 lb/ day = 7,600 lb/ day.

Step 4: Calculate required creditable reductions For 1999, the total percentage required reduction is 9 percent ( 3 percent per year x 3 this example, VOC emission reductions will account for 5 percent of the reductions nee NOx reductions will account for the remaining 4 percent. This example assumes that thes reductions are consistent with the area's attainment demonstration. The required VOC and N reductions from to 1999 are calculated as follows:

Percent NOx reduction = n = 4%.

Percent VOC reduction = rVOC = [ 0.03 * ( x y)]  n = [ 0.03 * ( 1999 1996)]  0.04 = 0.05 = 5%

Next, these percentage figures are multiplied by the adjusted base year inventories calculated relative to the current milestone/ attainment date to yield the required VOC and NOx emission reductions.

BGr, VOC = BEx, VOC * rVOC = 5,200 * 0.05 = 260 lb/ day and BGr, NOx = BEx, NOx * n = 7,600 * 0.04 = 304 lb/ day.

Severe and extreme nonattainment areas must also calculate the post 1996 rate of progress emission reductions for each of their milestone/ attainment dates.

Step 5: Calculate fleet turnover correction term ACRONYMS ( c 34 As noted previously, this For VOC, the fleet turnove reductions calculated in step 3 hypothetical example, the FMVC lb/ day of VOC. Therefore, the flee lb/ day  500 lb/ day). The NOx correc example, the FMVCP/ RVP NOx reducti Step 6: Calculate target level of emissions To calculate the target level of emissions for VOC calculated in step 4 and the fleet turnover correction level. The 1996 target level was calculated to be 4,000 Adjusted Base Year Emissions Inventory and the 1996 T ( see reference 1).

VOC target level = ( 1996 milestone target level) ( reductions calc turnover correction term)

= 1996 target level  ( 5,200 lb/ day * 0.05)  ( 600 lb/ day  500 lb/ day)

= 4,000 lb/ day  260 lb/ day  100 lb/ day = 3,640 lb/ day.

The target for NOx is calculated by subtracting the sum of the NOx reduction required a FMVCP/ RVP reductions between 1990 and 1999 from the 1990 rate of progress inventor NOx target level = ( 1990 NOx rate of progress inventory)  [( required reductions for 1999 calculated in step 4) + ( FMVCP/ RVP reductions)]

= 7,800 lb/ day  ( 7,600 lb/ day * 0.04)  ( 200 lb/ day)

= 7,296 lb/ day.

This area's plan must therefore demonstrate that the projected 1999 VOC inventory will be less than or equal to 3,640 lb/ day and the projected 1999 NOx inventory will be less than or equal to 7,296 lb/ day. ACRONYMS ( c 35 5.0 CONTROL STRAT States will need to include co demonstrate how emissions will demonstrate attainment of the ozon reductions by developing, adopting, a stationary and mobile sources or by doc future Federal regulatory programs for VO following two documents:

! Guidance for Growth Factors, Projections, and C of Progress Plans see reference 6).

! Guidance on the Relationship Between the 15 Percent R Provisions of the Clean Air Act ( see reference 7).

5.1 Mandatory Requirements This section identifies the specific measures required by the Act for ea nonattainment area. In addition, Table 2 lists the SIP submittal requirem nonattainment areas in chronological order.

Serious Nonattainment Area Requirements Under section 182( c) of the Act, serious nonattainment areas are subject to the contro required for moderate areas ( i. e., RACT rule fix ups, RACT catch ups, I/ M program co I/ M, stage II vapor recovery) as well as the following additional control measures:

! Enhanced I/ M program.

! A major stationary source cut off for RACT of 50 tons per year ( tpy) VOC or NOx .

! Clean fuel vehicle program in areas with a population greater than or equal to 250,000.

! Emission offset ratio of 1.2: 1.

Emission reductions associated with stage II vapor recovery, RACT catch ups, basic I/ M, and the first three of the four control measures listed above are creditable toward the post 1996 VOC emission reduction requirement to the extent that they occur between 1990 and 1999; represent emission reductions that are real, permanent, and enforceable; and are not needed to meet the 15 percent rate of progress requirement. Due to uncertainties in projecting new source growth and determining the level of emission reductions needed to offset minor source growth, EPA will not allow States to take credit in their post 1996 rate of progress plan for projected emission reductions resulting emission offsets. However, any additional, actual, permanent, and enforceable emission reductions from an offset that are not used to offset minor source growth will be creditable in the milestone compliance demonstrations required for serious areas. TABLE 2. SIP SUBMITTAL REQUIREMENTS FOR MODERATE AND ABOVE OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREAS 1992 ACRONYMS ( c 36 Nov. 15  Moderate and above ozone nonattainment areas must submit the following items for their 15 percent rate ofprogress plans:

! Final 1990 base year inventory for VOC, NO x, and CO.

! 1990 rate of progress base year inventory for VOC, NO x, and CO.

! Initial 1990 adjusted base year inventory for VOC.

! Documentation of how the 15 percent VOC reduction and 1996 target level of emissions were calculated.

! Growth factors for developing projected rate of progress and modeling inventories.

! Documentation of Act mandated control measures and associated control efficiencies.

 Moderate and above ozone nonattainment areas must submit:

! New source review ( NSR) rules for VOC and NO x. ! VOC and NO x RACT rules ( committal SIP acceptable for NO x for 1993 under certain circumstances).

! Stage II vapor recovery programs.

! Requirements for emission statement program ( major sources of VOC and NO x).

 Serious and above ozone nonattainment areas must submit:

! Enhanced I/ M programs and begin implementation ( committal SIP acceptable for 1993 implementation).

! Optional clean fuel fleet substitute  Severe and extreme ozone nonattainment areas must submit:

! Employer trip reduction programs.

! Measures for reducing VMT.

! Transportation control measures ( TCM's).

1993 37 Nov. 15  Moderate ozone nonattainment areas not using the UAM must submit an attainment demonstration.

 Moderate and above ozone nonattainment areas must submit their final 15 percent rate of progress plans including:

! Final 1996 projected emission inventory for VOC, NO x and CO.

! Control measures that will achieve emission reductions needed to meet their 15 percent VOC emission reduction requirement.

! Contingency measures for failures to meet their 1996 target level of emissions or failure to attain the ozone NAAQS. TABLE 2. SIP SUBMITTAL RE ABOVE OZONE NONATTAINME In addition, the Federally implemented p required in the nine nonattainment areas w 1987 1989 period and populations over 250,0 reformulated gasoline are also creditable toward Because certain measures are expected to require sig develop, including large amounts of coordination betw may have difficulty adopting all control measures in their rate of progress plan deadline. The EPA will allow States t reductions from " long term" measures in their post 1996 rate o backstop measures at least equivalent reductions have been ad SIP, and such backstop measures will automatically go into effect i measures are not ready in time for their projected implementation date of long term control measures is provided in section 5.7.

Severe Nonattainment Area Requirements Under section 182( d) of the Act, severe nonattainment areas are subject to the control measures required for serious areas ( except for emission offset requirements)

well as the following additional control measures.

! Measures to offset VMT growth.

! Employer trip reduction program.

! A major stationary source cut off for RACT of 25 tpy VOC or NOx .

! Emission offset ratio of 1.3 to 1 ( or 1.2 to 1 if the State's plan requires all existing major sources in the nonattainment area to use the best available control technology for the control of VOC emissions).

As with serious nonattainment areas, EPA will not allow States with severe nonattainment areas to take credit for projected emission reductions resulting from emission offsets in their post 1996 rate of progress plans. However, any additional, actual, permanent, and enforceable emission reductions from an offset that are not used to offset minor source growth will be creditable in the milestone compliance demonstrations required for severe areas ( i. e., in 1999, 2002, and for severe areas with a 1986 1988 ozone design value of 0.190 ppm up to, but not including, 0.280 ppm, 2005). All other post 1996 emission reductions that are real, permanent, and enforceable are creditable in the post 1996 rate of

progress plan.

Extreme Nonattainment Area Requirements Under section 182( e) of the Act, extreme ozone nonattainment areas are subject to the control measures required for severe areas ( except for emission offset requirements) as well as the following additional control measures. 1 EPA is currently considering the possibility of requiring the submittal of this periodic inventory by November 15, 1994.

2 EPA is currently considering the possibility of requiring the submittal of this periodic inventory by November 15, 1997.

3 EPA is currently considering the possibility of requiring the submittal of this periodic inventory by November 15, 2000.

4 EPA is currently considering the possibility of requiring the submittal of this periodic inventory by November 15, 2003.

38 1994 May 15 Seriou and all severe and ab program. Nov. 15 M demonstration.

 Serious and above ozone 1996 rate of progress plans:

! 1990 adjusted VOC base year invento year.

! Projected inventory for applicable post 19 inventory for serious ozone nonattainment a ! Documentation of how the 3 percent per year V were calculated for each applicable milestone dat ! Growth factors used in developing projected rate o ! Final Technical Support Documentation ( TSD) of ma control efficiencies, plus discretionary controls needed f  Serious and above ozone nonattainment areas and interst submit an attainment demonstration based on UAM modeling, i 15 Moderate and above ozone nonattainment areas must subm NO x , and CO emissions in 1993. 1 1996Nov. 15 Attainment date for m areas unless the area has requested and been granted an extension.

 Milestone date for moderate and above ozone nonattainment areas to VOC emission reduction requirement. 1997Feb. 15 Serious and above ozon must submit a milestone compliance demonstration showing compliance with th emission reduction requirement. 1998Nov. 15 Moderate and above ozone nona must submit periodic inventory of VOC, NO x , and CO emissions in 1996. 2 1999Nov. 15 Attainment date for serious ozone nonattainment areas, unless the area has requested granted an extension.

 Milestone date for serious, severe, and extreme ozone nonattainment areas to achieve the percent per year VOC emission reduction requirement. 2000Feb. 15 Severe and extreme ozo nonattainment areas must submit a milestone compliance demonstration showing compliance with th 3 percent per year VOC emission reduction requirement. 2001Nov. 15 Serious and above ozone nonattainment areas must submit periodic inventory of VOC, NO x , and CO emissions in 1999. 3 2002Nov. 15 Milestone date for severe and extreme ozone nonattainment areas to achieve the 3 percent per year VOC emission reduction requirement. 2003Feb. 15 Severe and extreme ozone nonattainment areas must submit a milestone compliance demonstration showing compliance with the 3 percent per year VOC emission reduction requirement. 2004Nov. 15 Severe and extreme ozone nonattainment areas must submit periodic inventory of VOC, NO x , and CO emissions in 2002. 4 2005Nov. 15 Attainment date for severe ozone nonattainment areas ( except those with a 1986 1988 design value between 0.190 and 0.280 ppm) unless the area has requested and been granted an extension. 5 EPA is currently considering the possibility of requiring the submittal of this periodic inventory by November 15, 2006.

6 EPA is currently considering the possibility of requiring the submittal of this periodic inventory by November 15, 2009.

39  Milestone d year VOC emission 1986 1988 design val submit a milestone com emission reduction requir 1988 design value between 0 ! Milestone date.

! Attainment date unless the area  Severe and extreme ozone nonat and CO emissions in 2005. 5 2008Nov. 15

achieve the 3 percent per year VOC emissi nonattainment areas must submit a milestone 3 percent per year VOC emission reduction re nonattainment areas:

! Milestone date.

! Attainment date unless the area has requested and be ! Submit periodic inventory for VOC, NO x , and CO emiss 40 MSA's Farm Agricultural services, fo Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Government and government enterprises States Farm Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and other Agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries Other Mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction Metal mining Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels Construction Manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers Textile mill products Apparel and other finished textile products Paper allied products Printing and publishing Chemical and allied products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and miscellaneous plastic products Leather and leather products 41 TABLE 3. BEA ( MSA's) AND STA States Manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Lumber and wood products ( except furniture and fixtures) Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electric and electronic equipment Transportation equipment, except motor vehicles Motor vehicles and equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing Transportation and public utilities Railroad transportation Trucking and warehousing Local, suburban, and highway passenger transportation Air transportation Pipeline transportation Transportation services Water transportation Communication Electric, gas, and sanitary services Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Banking Other credit and securities agencies Insurance Real estate and combination offices Services Hotels and other lodging places Personal, business, and miscellaneous repair services Automotive repair, services, and garages Amusement and recreation services Motion pictures Private households Health services Private education services Nonprofit organizations Miscellaneous professional services Government and government enterprises Federal, civilian Federal, military State and local In addition, the REMI models are updated yearly, which allows the forecasts to be based on recent information on the economic structure and activity of the U. S. and its regional economies.

The EPA is not preferring or requiring the use of E GAS. States are encouraged to incorporate the most accurate growth factors available into their projected inventories. E GAS is another tool that can be used in this process. Documentation of the system was released in April 1993. ( See references 8, 9.) Copies of the model software can be obtained from the Global Emissions and Control Division of AEERL.

EPA's Emissions Preprocessor System ( EPS) 42 While the BE EPS is a tool that c emissions. If a State These projections can b modeling required for the inventory which correspond meteorological conditions) mu temporally, and chemically as U data, by chemical species, for each Act include typical peak ozone day, c for 1990. The EPS serves to develop ho by grid cell from county emissions; nitrog NO x inventories and speciated hydrocarbon e to develop these inventories for 1990 or, using population, VMT, and industrial sector activity,

developed in a similar fashion using backcasts of th Based on the population, VMT, industrial activi speciated, hourly emission inventory for a future episode f expected growth in activity, but will not account for changes changes, or other factors which would change the amount em These changes can be identified by the user and input to EPS to r scenarios can be developed to examine potential or expected reducti SCC's or more general source categories ( e. g., fuel combustion, degrea 5.4 Relationship Between the Post 1996 Rate of Progress Plans and Other P Reference 7 summarizes the regulatory programs required by the Act for contr and NO x emissions. This guidance document also provides guidelines on the types reductions that can be credited towards meeting the emission reduction requiremen progress plans. The criteria for determining creditable emission reductions for 15 emission reduction requirement are also applicable for determining the creditability of e reductions toward the post 1996 rate of progress plan requirements so long as emission red were not credited towards meeting the 15 percent VOC emission reduction requirement. Stat local agencies should review the information in Reference 7 for determining the creditability of emission reductions in their post 1996 rate of progress plans.

Multiple Projection System ( MPS)

The MPS is designed to facilitate the projection of future emissions of ozone precursors,

specifically CO, VOCs, and NO x , in any given geographic area. The MPS gives state/ local air agencies a computer system capable of performing " what if scenario analysis" and reporting the final results ( i. e., their rate of progress inventory) to EPA.

The system is capable of projecting emissions out to the year 2008 at intervals of 3 years. In addition to projecting emissions, the system can make projections in the form of percent reduction relative to base year emissions. The system is designed to accept input data from either the AIRS Facility Subsystem ( AFS) or the Area and Mobile Source Subsystem ( AMS). Output from system is in the form of tables or graphs, which can be directed to the computer screen or to a printer.

Tabular results can also be output to an ASCII file, allowing user to subsequently import the reported information into other software for further analysis ( either numeric or graphic). Data contained in the output file can also be exported to Lotus 123, dBaseIII, Excel. As indicated above, the principal output types are batch transactions in AIRS FS and AMS format. 43 As was stated ea of CO, VOC, and basic capabilities:

: import emission data for data for 1990 and later year : import 1990 activity level data,

for on road mobile sources;

: accept user specified criteria for selecti : allow editing of imported control efficiency prior to projection of future emissions;

: project future emissions for the selected records ba : export projected emission data as DBaseIII, Lotus, and : generate tabular reports of projected emissions out to the ye : generate graphs depicting projected emissions out to the year 20 : generate batch transaction files of projected emission data for import Necessary input from the user to the MPS may be apparent from this list.

provide files containing the 1990 emission data and the control efficiency, RE growth factor data for future years. The projected growth factor file is generat 5.5 Economic Incentive Programs ( EIP)

Section 182( g)( 4)( B) of the Act requires EPA to promulgate rules for EIP's. A State with extreme ozone nonattainment area must submit an EIP when it fails to submit a milestone demonstration or to meet an applicable rate of progress milestone. Such programs are also id as an explicit option upon such failures in serious and severe ozone nonattainment areas.

Additionally, the Act explicitly allows the use of EIP's in the general SIP requirements [ section 110( a)( 2)], provisions for nonattainment area SIP's [ section 172( c)( 6)], and in the system of regulations for controlling emissions from consumer or commercial products [ section 183( e)( 4)].

On February 23, 1993, EPA proposed a rule for implementing EIP's ( 58 FR 11110). The proposed EIP rule serves as interim guidance for both mandated ( statutory) and discretionary EIP's and addresses some of the general issues associated with the design and implementation of EIP's.

Reference 7 presents EPA's interim guidance on the relationship between the 15 percent rate of

progress plans and EIP's. Because the discussion provided in reference 7 is also relevant to the post

1996 plan, States should review the guidance provided in that document.

5.6 Contingency Measures The Act requires that States with ozone nonattainment areas classified as moderate and above include contingency measures in their SIP's [ sections 172( c)( 9) and 182( c)( 9)]. The contingency measures are the additional controls to be implemented in the event of a milestone or attainment failure. Section 172( c)( 9) of the Act specifies the general requirements for nonattainment area SIP's to contain contingency measures that will take effect without further action by the State or EPA if an area either fails to make reasonable further progress or fails to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date. Section 182( c)( 9) requires SIP contingency measures for failure of serious and above areas to meet milestones. Plans to meet the 1996 milestone date are required as part of the 15 44 percent rate of p information on the which is also applica All contingency measures implemented unless and un NAAQS. EPA recognizes that implemented immediately so the novel concept. The SIP should clea of the measures, and an indication th State or EPA ( e. g., a public hearing discusses milestone and attainment fai development or implementation of contingen below.

If a moderate or above nonattainment area receives attainment date, the contingency measures will not be attain the new attainment date. If a milestone complian nonattainment area and the area fails to meet the mileston required to be implemented even if the nonattainment area w extension.

For the post 1996 rate of progress plan, some areas will be able to m measures requirement by referencing the contingency measures identi progress plan. The policy for States to include NO x contingency measure progress plan that was due November 15, 1993 is outlined in " Guidance on 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans," Memorandum from Michael H. Shapiro Administrator for Air and Radiation to the Regional Division Directors, Augus Contingency measures for the post 1996 rate of progress plan must not be inconsi area's attainment demonstration. If a serious or above area fails to meet the 15 perc and uses their contingency measures or a portion thereof, then the State can backfill th with all VOC, NO x , or a combination of VOC and NO x measures based upon the modeling that area. EPA finds this acceptable due to the fact that NO x substitution for the 3 percent p VOC reduction requirement is permitted for under the Act.

Additionally, areas that have implemented control measures from their overall SIP control strategy as a contingency measure or that have implemented any of their contingency measures listed in their 15 percent rate of progress plan must develop new measures to backfill the contingency plan and/ or the control strategy. Within 1 year of the triggering a contingency requiring the early implementation of control measures, the State must submit a SIP revision containing whatever additional provisions are needed to backfill the SIP to remedy any eventual shortfall that may occur as the result of the early use of the control measures. The EPA expects any control measures that are implemented early as part of a contingency plan will remain in place ( be superseded by replacement control measures) until the next milestone. At the next milestone, the State can demonstrate whether or not these control measures are needed to stay on track.

The EPA encourages the early implementation of required control measures and of contingency measures as a means of guarding against failures to meet a milestone or to attain. Any implemented measures ( that are not needed for the rate of progress requirements or for the attainment demonstration) would need to be backfilled only to the extent they are used to meet a milestone. For purposes of an attainment failure, it would be impractical to require States backfill the contingency measures when they have already fulfilled the contingency measure requirement for their classification. The State would be required to adopt new contingency measures as part of the process of developing their new SIP for new classification. See " Early Implementation of Contingency Measures for Ozone and Carbon Monoxide ( CO) Nonattainment Areas," Memorandum from G. T. Helms, Chief, Ozone/ Carbon Monoxide Programs Branch, August 13, 1993. 45 For milestone fa compensate the sufficient measures be implemented. Gene B of this document. Add and implications will be pro For an attainment failure, EPA States could adopt measures that a contingency measure requirement. T lowered for already adopted measures i or measure that meets the creditability req achieve real, permanent, enforceable reduct contingency measure. In addition, please refer Measures that are due November 15, 1993 for M Memorandum from D. Kent Berry, Acting director November 8, 1993, for more information.

5.7 Long Term Control Measures It is anticipated that some serious and above ozone nonattainm large emission reductions to achieve attainment by their attainme may be an unreasonable burden for such areas to identify, develop,

control measures needed to demonstrate attainment in their post 1996 must be submitted to EPA by November 15, 1994. The General Preamb Title I of Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 ( 57 FR 13498) sets forth t areas that may need additional time to fully develop and adopt certain " long that would be the preferred method to achieve attainment. The long term contr include those that require complex analyses, decision making, and coordination a governmental agencies. It is important to note that no measure that is specifically re Act ( e. g., NO x RACT controls) can be considered a " long term" control measure.

The EPA intends to allow such areas reasonable time to complete full development and adoption of long term control measures under the following conditions:

! The portion of the post 1996 rate of progress plan that contains the demonstration of attainment must identify each control measure for which additional time would be needed for full development and adoption.

! The plan must show that the long term control measures cannot be fully developed and adopted by the submittal date the attainment demonstration.

! The plan must contain an enforceable commitment ( i. e., a commitment that has been subjected to hearing as part of the SIP) by the relevant agency that development and adoption will occur on an expeditious schedule to achieve specified emission reductions from each long term control measure for each year through the attainment year.

! The plan must contain a " backstop" control measure for each long term control measure that would be implemented to achieve equivalent emission reductions unless the long term control measure is adopted and implemented on schedule.

! The long term control measures must not be needed to meet any emission reduction requirements during the first 6 years after enactment ( i. e., from November 15, 1990 through November 15, 1996). 46 47 ! States must hav States with the aut 1996 rate of progres The backstop control mea progress plan submittal and milestone and attainment failu automatically on a schedule ( wh emission reductions associated attainment year. The backstop contr reductions rather than thoroughly anal declining emission cap ( e. g., lbs/ day, tpy)

appropriate backstop control measure.

Several States have expressed concern about the EPA's legal counsel has advised that the only remed in their post 1996 rate of is to require t backstop control measures is set forth in the General Pr the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 ( 57 FR 13498). Th wording in the Act requires that States submit SIP measures attainment within a certain timeframe. The adoption of backst that these will be achieved.

When each long term control measure is fully developed and adopted,

EPA as a SIP revision. The revision would also propose deletion of the c control measure. The EPA's approval of each long term control measure w corresponding backstop control measure from the SIP. For this reason, EPA actual implementation of backstop control measures in most cases because Stat opportunity to submit SIP revisions to incorporate fully developed and adopted lo measures and to delete the backstop control measures from SIP. In addition, if a control measure cannot be developed, then a State has the option of submitting a SIP r a fully developed and adopted alternative measure to replace the original long te measure prior to any necessary implementation of a backstop control measure.

Thus, a State may find that progress can be achieved with control measures that are fully developed, adopted, and included in its post 1996 rate or progress plan by November 15, 1994.

However, the State may determine expeditious attainment of the NAAQS is impossible unless its SIP also includes control measures which cannot be fully developed until after the November 15, 1994 submittal deadline. In its post 1996 rate of progress plan submittal, the State must clearly describe each of the long term control measures and show that each measure cannot be fully developed and adopted until a specified future date, despite expeditious implementation efforts. The post 1996 rate

of progress plan must include with each long term control measure an enforceable schedule binding responsible agencies to achieve the identified emission reductions associated with implementation of each long term control measure. Please note that the intention of long term control measures are for aiding in attaining NAAQS. EPA realizes, however, that in some circumstances long term measures may be needed for the rate of progress requirements as well. Therefore, these ( if all above requirements are followed) are creditable to the post 1996 rate of progress plan requirements as long as the appropriate amount of reductions are achieved by the milestone date.

5.8 New Technologies for Extreme Ozone Nonattainment Areas In addition to the long term measures option discussed in section 5.7 above, section 182( e)( 5)

of the Act permits the EPA to approve SIP's and attainment demonstrations for extreme ozone nonattainment areas which include control measures that anticipate the development of new techniques or the improvement of existing technologies. In order to receive EPA approval, the State cannot use such measures to achieve the necessary emission reductions required during the 1990 2000 48 period and the S measures in case t reductions. These co proposed implementati accordance with the requ addition to the contingency 7 Both the 1990 base year inventory and 1990 rate of progress base year inventories were calculated for the 15 percent rate of progress plan. If any adjustments are made to these inventories since they were submitted for the 15 percent plan, then these revised inventories will need to be submitted as part of the post 1996 rate of progress plan, with a full explanation of the changes and why they were made. If no changes were made, then the State should reference the previous inventories in the post 1996 rate of

progress plan.

8 See CFR Part 51.281 on adopted measures. See section 5.2 of this document for information on using TCM's that are not adopted measures for the rate of progress plan.

49 6.0 POST 1996 R SUBMITTALS AN 6.1 Post 1996 Rate of P This section identifies the in November 15, 1994 rate of pro suggested formats for these subm following elements and documenta ! 1990 adjusted base year inventory( ies).

! VOC ( and NO x , where applicable) target leve supporting calculations.

! Growth factors for developing projected rate of pro inventories.

! Control measures and their associated control efficiencies.

! Projected milestone and attainment year inventories reflecting strategy.

! Fully adopted post 1996 rate of progress plan, including attainment d and any control measures needed to meet rate of progress or attainment demonstration requirements. 8 ! Modeling Documentation ( see reference 4).

1990 Adjusted Base Year Inventory Documentation of the adjusted base year inventory for each milestone year will take two distinct forms. The written documentation must include the expected emission reductions f FMVCP and RVP program, as well as both actual 1990 motor vehicle emissions using 1990 V and MOBILE5a emission factors, and the adjusted emissions using 1990 VMT and the MOBIL emission factors calculated for each milestone/ attainment year with the appropriate RVP for the nonattainment area as mandated by EPA. States must provide EPA with the inputs to the MOBILE5a model used in calculating the expected emission reductions from the FMVCP and RVP program.

For purposes of the AIRS Area and Mobile Source Subsystem ( AMS) adjusted base year submittal, States must provide the RVP inputs as required under the Act for nonattainment area,

and run the MOBILE5a model for 1999 and each subsequent milestone/ attainment year vehicle mix ( e. g., extreme areas run the model for 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2010). Because the calculation of 50 the FMVCP and States will not sub Other requirements for AIRS are the same as tho documentation of the base y Ozone State Implementation P Base Year Ozone and Carbon M reference 11.) States should realize inventory for the AIRS facility subsy calculation of the adjusted inventory fro for both the rate of progress an retrieved from the 1990 base year inventory All adjustments apply to mobile source emissio emissions are different because the base year inv nonattainment area boundaries. The AIRS has a fl designated nonattainment area boundaries and, there develop these two different inventories.

Target Level( s) of Emissions The target level( s) of emissions for each milestone and attainment amount of anthropogenic emissions within the nonattainment area t year order to comply with the rate of progress requirements. The E document the target emission level( s) as well as calculations made in level( s).

Control Measure and Growth Factor Information Documentation for all of the control measures and their associated control efficienci factors for both the post 1996 rate of progress plan and the attainment demonstration submitted. See Table 1 in EPA document entitled Guidance on the Adjusted Base Ye Emissions Inventory and the Target for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans ( see ref for a suggested computerized format. Table I also provides an example of growth factor documentation.

The control measure information consists primarily of a list of control measures and associated control efficiencies on a computer diskette file formatted as discussed above. For control measures that will be applied during modeling of attainment, control information must be reported for the entire modeling domain unless measures are specifically limited to the nonattainment area.

Supplied control information for attainment year strategies will be used as input to the upcoming regional oxidant modeling ( ROM) exercises to improve consistency between ROM and UAM results.

Also included should be the rule penetration ( percentage of rule coverage) associated with new area source control measures and any expected changes in RE for point or area sources. In addition to the data on spreadsheet, paper documentation should be provided describing the control measures, their implementation dates, assumptions made, and any further explanation needed for the information listed on the spreadsheet.

Milestone Year Projected Inventories 51 The milestone year the assumptions used documented.

6.2 Multi State Submittal In The officials in each State that a EPA should send, as part of their p Regional Administrator( s) stating tha a multi State post 1996 rate of progress target for each State, percent reduction re total 3 percent per year VOC/ NO x emissi original targets are calculated assuming that e on its own. The sum of the new targets must equ Each State will be responsible for adopting and imple new target. No State will be responsible for the failure o 6.3 Mid Course Corrections The EPA recognizes that there are some uncertainties associated generate base year and projected emission inventories and to model VOC and NO x emissions and ozone air quality. It is expected that, ove experience in running the current version of UAM and improved air qua be available. In addition, anticipated improvements in emission inventory will result in improved input to UAM.

For these reasons, States are encouraged to consider making mid course correctio attainment demonstrations and rate of progress plans around 1997. This will allow advantage of improved modeling techniques, air quality monitoring systems and emiss to refine their attainment strategies.

6.4 Suggested Submittal Tables The following tables are the suggested submittal forms for a summary of the post 1996 rateof progress plan and the attainment demonstration. Table 5 is the recommended format for control strategy submittal. Table 6 contains information for all of the controls needed for the attainment demonstration. Table 7 suggests a format for the contingency measure submittal. Table 8 provides a format for explaining RE improvement measures. Tables 9 and 10 recommend a format for giving further details on all of the stationary source control measures. 15 All noncreditable mobile source measures should be listed individually but may be calculated in a single MOBILE5a run.

16 All creditable mobile source measures that are calculated through MOBILE5a should listed individually but may be calculated in a single run.

17 Emission reductions from mobile source measures that are not calculated in MOBILE5a should be calculated and listed individually.

52 TABLE 5. SUG STRATEGY SUM Control Measure Creditable/ Noncreditable Implementation Date Expected VOC Emissions Reductions ( lb/ day) Expected NO x Emissions Reductions ( lb/ day)

TOTAL STATIONARY MOBILE SOURCE CONTROLS:

Noncreditable15 Creditable16 Creditable17 TOTAL MOBILE:

TOTAL 53 TABLE 6. SUG SUBMITTAL Control Measure Implementation Date Expected VOC Emissions Reductions ( lb/ day) Expected NO x Emissions Reductions ( lb/ day)

TOTAL STATIONARY MOBILE SOURCE CONTROLS:

TOTAL MOBILE:

TOTAL TABLE 7. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR CONTINGENCY MEASURE SUBMITTAL 1990 VOC adjusted base year inventory: 5,200 lb/ day 1990 NOx adjusted base year inventory: 7,600 lb/ day IMPLEMENTATIO NORDER DESCRIPTION OF CONTROL MEASURE EXPECTED VOC EMISSION REDUCTIO N( lb/ day) EXPECTED NOx EMISSION REDUCTION ( lb/ day) EMISSION REDUCTION AS A PERCENTAG E OF 1990 VOC ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY EMISSION REDUCTION AS A PERCENTAGE OF 1990 NOx ADJUSTED BASE YEAR INVENTORY 1 Automobile emission tax 80 105 1.54 1.38 2 NO x RACT w/ lower major stationary source cutoff ( 25 tpy for serious area) 30 0.39 3 Stage II vapor recovery for boats 25 0.48 TOTAL 105 135 2.02 1.77 TABLE 8. SUG IMPROVEMENT RE IMPROVEMENT MEASURE 1990 RE ( percent) NEW RE ( percent) IMPLEMENTATION DATE EXPECTED EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ( lb/ day)

TOTAL:

TABLE 9. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR SUBM CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE POST 1996 R CONTROL MEASURE IMPLEMENTATION DATE 1990 CONTROL EFFICIENCY ( percent) NEW CONTROL EFFICIENCY ( percent) EXPECTED EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ( lb/ day)

TOTAL:

TABLE 10. SUGGESTED FORMAT FOR SUBMITTAL OF STATIONARY SOUR CONTROL MEASURES FOR THE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION CONTROL MEASURE IMPLEMENTATION DATE 1990 CONTROL EFFICIENCY ( percent) NEW CONTROL EFFICIENCY ( percent) EXPECTED EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ( lb/ day)

TOTAL: 1. Guidance on the Ad Rate of Progress Plans,

Research Triangle Park, NC 2. User's Guide for t A C, D( R), E F, U. S. E Research Triangle Park,

3. Guideline for Regulatory A Model, 450/ 4 91 01, U. S. E Agency, OAQPS, Research Triangle 4. Guidance on Urban Airshed Model (

for Attainment Demonstration, EPA 454 Environmental Protection Agency, OAQPS Park, NC. January 1994.

5. Criteria for Assessing the Role of Transp Ozone/ Precursors in Ozone Nonattainment Areas 015, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, OAQP Triangle Park, NC. May 1991.

6. Guidance for Growth Factors, Projections, and Cont Strategies for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans,

452/ R 93 007. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, OAQ Research Triangle Park, NC. March 1993.

7. Guidance on the Relationship Between the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans and Other Provisi of the Clean Air Act, EPA 452/ R 93 007, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, OAQPS,

Research Triangle Park, NC. May 1993.

8. Economic Growth Analysis System: Reference Manual, EPA

600/ R 93 067a, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Washington, DC. April 1993.

9. Economic Growth Analysis System: User's Guide, EPA 600/ R

93 067b, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Washington, DC. April 1993.

10. Emission Inventory Requirements for Ozone State Implementation Plans, EPA 450/ 4 91 010, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, OAQPS, Research Triangle Park, NC.

March 1991.

11. Example Documentation Report for 1990 Base Year Ozone and Carbon Monoxide State Implementation Plan Emission Inventories, EPA 450/ 4 92 007, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, OAQPS, Research Triangle Park, NC. March 1992. REFERENCES A 1 APPENDIX A:

This appendix provide document. Different EPA source). The following defin reader is advised to refer to sp definitions for the program or ti The following terms are defined in A Growth Factors, Projections, and Contr reference 6):

! Area Source.

! Attainment Demonstration.

! Attainment Determination.

! Basic Inspection and Maintenance.

! Major Stationary Source.

! Milestone Compliance Demonstration.

! 1990 Adjusted Base Year Inventory.

! 1990 Base Year Inventory.

! 1990 Rate of Progress Base Year Inventory.

! 1996 Target Level of Emissions.

! Peak Ozone Season.

! Point Source.

! Post 1996 Rate of Progress Plan.

! RACT " Catch ups."

! RACT " Fix ups."

! Rate of Progress Plan.

! Rule Effectiveness.

! Volatile Organic Compound.

The following terms are defined in Appendix A of the EPA document entitled Guidance on the Relationship Between the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans and Other Provisions of the C Air Act ( see reference 7):

! Reclassification.

! Reformulated Gasoline.

! Reid Vapor Pressure.

! Stage II.

! Transportation Control Measures.

Backstop Measure Fully adopted control measure that achieves an annual emission reduction equivalent to those that would be achieved by the implementation of long term control measures.

Economic Growth Analysis System ( E GAS) An EPA model for projecting emissions growth based on value added and physical output data.

Economic Incentive Program A program which may include State established emission fees or a system of marketable permits, or a system of State fees based on the sale or manufacture of products the use of which contributes to ozone formation, or any combination of the foregoing or other similar measures, as well as incentives and requirements to reduce vehicle emissions and VMT in an area.

Emissions Preprocessor System ( EPS) An EPA model for developing hourly emission rates from annual emissions, emissions by grid cell from county emissions, NO and NO 2 emissions from NO x inventories, and speciated hydrocarbon emissions from VOC inventories. A 2 Fleet Turnover the target level of e reflect the emission r 55 FR 23666, June 11,

Long Term Control Measur more time to develop and adop progress plans ( i. e., November 1 measure that will achieve equivalen adopted and implemented on schedu New Technologies Control measures for development of new control techniques or th VOC and/ or NO x emissions that require more t submittal of the post 1996 rate of progress plans Projected Milestone Inventory An inventory of proje control measures. A nonattainment area computes this plan for each target year.

Target Year A year in which a nonattainment area must recalc for the post 1996 rate of progress plan ( e. g., target years for extre 2008, and 2010).

Target Level of Emissions The maximum amount of emissions that a no a given target year while complying with the post 1996 rate of progress pla Urban Airshed Model ( UAM) An EPA approved photochemical grid model for attainment demonstrations for nonattainment areas. 18 Appendix H of the document entitled Guidance for Growth Factors, Projections, and Control Strategies for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plan, EPA 452/ R 93 002, March 1993, describes the attainment failure implications for marginal and moderate areas.

B 1 APPENDIX B:

FAILURES This appendix provides a failures for serious, severe, a milestone demonstrations and future rulemaking. Marginal an are required to attain by 1993 does not attain by 1996, it may be rec requirements for this higher classifi to achieve the 1999 milestone emission red nonattainment areas.

Serious Areas Milestone Failures Serious areas are required to demonstrate one milestone, t emission reduction requirement unless they apply for and re year attainment date extensions under section 181( a)( 5). Plans the rate of progress plan, due by November 15, 1993. Serious are compliance demonstration within 90 days after milestone date ( i will determine within 90 days whether or not the demonstration was a 182( c)( 9) requires that contingency measures go into effect automatically required to elect one of three additional measures to implement if these con adequate to correct the failure. The elective options are:

! Bumping up to the next higher classification.

! Implementing additional contingency measures.

! Adopting an EIP that meets the requirements of section 182( g)( 4).

This election must occur within 90 days of the milestone failure determination by EPA. If the State fails to make the election within the 90 days or 6 months thereafter, area will be reclassif to the next higher classification by operation of law. Within 12 months after the date by which the State is required to elect an option, the State must submit a SIP revision that corrects the failure.

The EPA has 9 months after the submittal date to review and approve or disapprove the revised SIP.

Because the timeframe involved in making a State election, revising the SIP to reflect the election, and EPA approval of the SIP revision may take as long as 2.5 years, States with serious areas are strongly encouraged to implement control measures as soon as a milestone failure is deemed likely.

States that wait until the milestone failure occurs will have extremely limited time available to develop, implement, and evaluate additional control measures before the next milestone must be met.

Attainment Failures Serious areas are required to attain the NAAQS for ozone by November 15, 1999, unless they apply for and receive at least one two available 1 year attainment date extensions under section 181( a)( 5). EPA shall determine, based on the area's design value ( as of the attainment date) whether B 2 the area attained November 15, 199 classification [ section attainment date, identi implement the contingenc expects all actions implem Severe Areas Severe nonattainment areas with a 1 demonstrate post 1996 emission reducti by 2005, unless they apply and receive extensions under section 181( a)( 5). Severe a up to, but not including, 0.280 ppm must demo 1999, 2002, and 2005, and are required to attain receive at least one of the two available 1 year attai Milestone Failures As with serious areas, severe areas that fail to meet a miles measures following the same requirements as for serious are options specified in section 182( g)( 3).

Attainment Failures Upon an attainment failure, severe areas must implement the contingenc in the SIP [ section 172( c)( 9)] following the same requirements as for seriou major stationary source within the nonattainment area must pay the fees man as a penalty for failure to attain. These emission fees apply to sources of NO x em controls are used in the attainment demonstration. Section 181( b)( 4)( B) the Ac if a severe area's design value is above 0.140 ppm for the attainment year or if the ar its most recent milestone, NSR requirements pertaining to extreme areas become appli area, and the major stationary source threshold for extreme areas ( 10 tpy or more) also g effect. A severe nonattainment area cannot be reclassified as an extreme area upon attainm failure.

Extreme Areas Milestone Failures Extreme areas are required to demonstrate post 1996 milestones in 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2008 [ 182( g)( 2)]. In the event of a milestone failure, section 182( g)( 5) requires that extreme areas adopt an EIP, as described in section 182( g)( 1), and implement the contingency measures described in the SIP [ section 172( c)( 9) and 182( c)( 9)] following the same requirements as for serious areas. Attainment Failures Extreme areas are required to attain the NAAQS for ozone by November 15, 2010, unless they apply for and receive at least one of the two available 1 year attainment date extensions under section 181( a)( 5). Extreme areas that fail to attain by their applicable attainment date, must implement the contingency measures contained in the SIP [ section 172( c)( 9)] following the same requirements as for serious areas, and each major stationary source within the nonattainment area must pay the fees as mandated by section 185. These emission fees apply to sources of NO x emissions as well if NO x controls are used in the attainment demonstration.

Bump up Requirements B 3 The EPA classif These classificatio Section 181( a) of the classification must atta the EPA must make "

[ section 181( b)( 2) of the Act to quality assurance review, co of ozone, average number of be used to determine whether an a Under section 181( a)( 5) of the Act, a Sta nonattainment area's attainment date; up be granted if the State is in complete compli than one exceedance of the ozone NAAQS has According to section 181( b)( 2) of the Act, failure of nonattainment area to attain the ozone NAAQS by th will result in their reclassification the higher of:

! The next higher classification for the area.

! The classification associated with the area's design value when EP determination that attainment was not achieved.

This reclassification procedure does not apply to severe and extreme are NAAQS by their applicable date. If a severe or extreme area fails to attain area must implement contingency measures required under section 172( c)( 9)

must pay the fees authorized by section 185.

" Bump up" refers to the reclassification process that a marginal, moderate, or serio automatically undergoes if it fails to attain the NAAQS. The term bump up also appli reclassification of a serious or severe nonattainment area as a result of milestone failure.

severe nonattainment areas that fail to meet a milestone are required to make an election, u section 182( g)( 3) of the Act, from three given measures identified on page B 1. One explicit op reclassification of the area to the next higher classification.

Upon bump up, the attainment date specified for the higher classification applies to the area that has been bumped up. Section 182( i) of the Act allows EPA to establish due dates for required submittals associated with the new classification, but does not allow EPA to adjust the attainment date. An early voluntary bump up will allow the State more flexibility and time in planning for and achieving the new requirements of the higher classification. Since failure to submit approvable SIP revisions can result in sanctions or Federal implementation plan ( FIP) measures, it will be in the best interests of areas to attempt to assess whether attainment is improbable as soon as possible.

Attainment Date Extensions If a moderate or above nonattainment area receives a 1 year extension or two 1 year extensions of their attainment date, no additional rate of progress requirements are required during the time of the extension( s). Contingency measures are not required to be implemented during this time unless the nonattainment area failed to meet a required milestone. For purposes of section 172( c)( 9), contingency measures would be required to be implemented when the area failed to attain the new attainment date. However, if a nonattainment area receives an extension, the area is to perform a milestone compliance demonstration for the original attainment date year. Since the area is asking for an extension, the nonattainment area has not attained and therefore is required to do the milestone compliance demonstration. B 4 Fee Provisions Section 185 of the Ac in their SIP's for the im each major stationary sou failure to attain during the year until the area attains. Th used in the attainment demonstr The Act requires that these fees equa stationary source during the calendar y will also be adjusted for inflation over tim baseline level of emissions for a source is det ! The actual VOC or NO x emissions.

! The emissions allowed according to the applicable per If EPA determines that the fee provisions of a SIP do not m 185, or the State is not administering the fee program as requ unpaid fees, including any interest computed in accordance wit Revenue Code of 1986.

Additionally, section 185 provides a fee exemption for areas with a po that can demonstrate that their failure to attain is due to ozone or precu from other areas. 19 56 FR 42216, " State Implementation Plan Completeness Criteria; Final Rule." August 26, 1991.

C 1 APPENDIX C:

The following checkl plan. Questions in the question requires no furth not necessarily invalidate th occasionally, will require a SIP These checklists are designed to as progress plans, and also to assist EPA checklists are all inclusive, however.