[Federal Register Volume 88, Number 6 (Tuesday, January 10, 2023)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 1454-1495]
[FR Doc No: 2022-28666]

Vol. 88

Tuesday,

No. 6

January 10, 2023

Part II

Environmental Protection Agency

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40 CFR Part 52

Air Plan Partial Approval and Partial Disapproval; AK, Fairbanks North
Star Borough; 2006 24-Hour PM2.5 Serious Area and 189(d) Plan; Proposed
Rule

Federal Register / Vol. 88 , No. 6 / Tuesday, January 10, 2023 /
Proposed Rules

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R10-OAR-2022-0115; FRL-9755-01-R10]

Air Plan Partial Approval and Partial Disapproval; AK, Fairbanks
North Star Borough; 2006 24-Hour PM2.5 Serious Area and 189(d) Plan

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve in part and disapprove in part the state implementation plan
(SIP) revisions, submitted by the State of Alaska (Alaska or the State)
to address Clean Air Act (CAA or Act) requirements for the 2006 24-hour
fine particulate matter (PM2.5) national ambient air quality
standards (NAAQS) in the Fairbanks North Star Borough PM2.5
nonattainment area (Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area).
Alaska made these submissions on December 13, 2019, and December 15,
2020.

DATES:
    Comments. Written comments must be received on or before March 13,
2023.
    Public Hearing. EPA plans to hold one public hearing concerning the
proposed rule in Fairbanks, Alaska. The date, time and location will be
announced separately.

ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R10-
OAR-2022-0115, at https://www.regulations.gov. Follow the online
instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted, comments cannot
be edited or removed from regulations.gov. EPA may publish any comment
received to its public docket. Do not submit electronically any
information you consider to be Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information the disclosure of which is restricted by statute.
Multimedia submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a
written comment. The written comment is considered the official comment
and should include discussion of all points you wish to make. EPA will
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of
the primary submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing
system). For additional submission methods, the full EPA public comment
policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and general
guidance on making effective comments, please visit https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Matthew Jentgen, EPA Region 10, 1200
Sixth Avenue--Suite 155, Seattle, WA 98101,<PHONE_NUMBER>,
[email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document wherever ``we,''
``us,'' or ``our'' is used, it is intended to refer to EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Background
    A. Environmental Justice Considerations
II. Clean Air Act Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Area
Plans and for PM2.5 Serious Areas That Fail To Attain
    A. Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Area Plans
    B. Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Areas That Fail To
Attain
    C. Combined Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Areas and
Serious Areas That Fail To Attain
III. Review of the Fairbanks Serious Plan and Fairbanks 189(d) Plan
    A. Emission Inventories
    B. Pollutants Addressed
    C. Control Strategy
    D. Attainment Demonstration and Modeling
    E. Reasonable Further Progress
    F. Quantitative Milestones
    G. Contingency Measures
    H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
    I. Nonattainment New Source Review Requirements Under CAA
section 189(e)
IV. Consequences of a Disapproval
    A. The Act's Provisions for Sanctions
    B. Federal Implementation Plan Provisions That Apply If a State
Fails To Submit an Approvable Plan
    C. Ramifications Regarding Transportation Conformity
V. Summary of Proposed Action
    A. Proposed Approval
    B. Proposed Disapproval
VI. Incorporation by Reference
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
    A. Executive Order 12866: Regulatory Planning and Review and
Executive Order 13563: Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review
    B. Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA)
    C. Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA)
    D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA)
    E. Executive Order 13132: Federalism
    F. Executive Order 13175: Coordination With Indian Tribal
Governments
    G. Executive Order 13045: Protection of Children From
Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks
    H. Executive Order 13211: Actions That Significantly Affect
Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use
    I. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act (NTTAA)
    J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address
Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income
Population

I. Background

    In 2009, EPA designated a portion of the Fairbanks North Star
Borough as ``nonattainment'' for the 2006 24-hour PM2.5
NAAQS, which is set at the level of 35 micrograms per cubic meter
([mu]g/m\3\) (Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area) (74 FR
58688, November 13, 2009).\1\ Effective July 2, 2014, EPA classified
the area as ``Moderate'' (79 FR 31566, June 2, 2014). Subsequently,
Alaska submitted, and EPA approved, a plan to meet Moderate
nonattainment area requirements (82 FR 42457, September 8, 2017)
(``Fairbanks Moderate Plan'').
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    \1\ See 40 CFR 81.302.
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    On May 10, 2017, EPA determined that the Fairbanks PM2.5
Nonattainment Area failed to attain the 2006 24-hour PM2.5
NAAQS in the area by the outermost statutory Moderate area attainment
date of December 31, 2015 (82 FR 21711). As a result, the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment Area was reclassified as a ``Serious''
nonattainment area by operation of law.
    Upon reclassification as a Serious PM2.5 nonattainment
area, the State was required to submit a Serious area attainment plan
satisfying the requirements of CAA sections 172, 189(b), and 189(c) and
40 CFR 51.1003(b). In accordance with CAA section 188(c)(2), the
outermost attainment date for a Serious area is no later than the end
of the tenth calendar year following designation (i.e., December 31,
2019).
    Alaska submitted a plan to address the Serious PM2.5
nonattainment area requirements on December 13, 2019 (Fairbanks Serious
Plan).\2\ Along with the required planning elements, the Fairbanks
Serious Plan includes more stringent performance and operating
requirements for residential and commercial heating devices, new
regulations for wood sellers, and some requirements for stationary
sources in the nonattainment area. The Fairbanks Serious Plan is
comprised of revisions to Title 18, Chapter 50, of the Alaska
Administrative Code (18 AAC 50) and the State Air Quality Control Plan,
adopted and incorporated by reference into State law at 18 AAC
50.030(a).\3\ On January 9, 2020, in accordance with CAA section
110(k)(1)(B), EPA determined that the Fairbanks Serious

Plan was administratively and technically complete (85 FR 7760,
February 11, 2020).
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    \2\ Alaska SIP revision submitted October 25, 2018, to address
the nonattainment NSR element for the Fairbanks Serious area, among
other things. EPA approved as meeting the nonattainment NSR element
for the Serious Plan on August 29, 2019 (84 FR 45419).
    \3\ We note that 18 AAC 50.030(a) is not submitted, rather
Alaska submits the adopted provisions separately for EPA approval.
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    Within the Fairbanks Serious Plan, the State sought an extension of
the otherwise applicable attainment date through CAA section 188(e). On
September 2, 2020, EPA determined that the area failed to attain by the
Serious area attainment date and denied the State's Serious area
attainment date extension request (85 FR 54509). As a result, Alaska
was required to submit a revised SIP submission to meet both the
Serious area attainment plan requirements and the additional CAA
requirements set forth in CAA section 189(d) by December 31, 2020.\4\
Alaska submitted the revised plan on December 15, 2020 (Fairbanks
189(d) Plan). The Fairbanks 189(d) Plan updated a number of chapters of
the State Air Quality Control Plan (i.e., narrative portions of the
SIP), adopted and incorporated by reference into State law at 18 AAC
50.030(a). Prior to EPA taking action to approve or disapprove the
Fairbanks Serious Plan, Alaska withdrew and replaced several chapters
of the Fairbanks Serious Plan with the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan
submission.\5\ In this proposed action, EPA is not proposing to act on
the withdrawn elements of the prior Fairbanks Serious Plan, only those
elements that remain as revised by Alaska in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan.
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    \4\ 40 CFR 51.1003(c).
    \5\ See SIP submission cover letter, submitted by Alaska
Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) Commissioner Jason
Brune to EPA Regional Administrator, Chris Hladick, on December 15,
2020.
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    On September 24, 2021, EPA approved as meeting the Serious area
planning requirements the 2013 base year emissions inventory and the
PM2.5 precursor demonstration elements of the Fairbanks
Serious Plan (86 FR 52997). In the same action, EPA approved other plan
components as SIP strengthening, including (1) the updated Fairbanks
Emergency Episode Plan \6\ that the State adopted on November 18, 2020
and submitted on December 15, 2020; and (2) emission control measures
included in the SIP submissions on October 25, 2018 and November 28,
2018 (in addition to the December 13, 2019 submission).\7\ EPA did not
determine as part of the September 24, 2021, approval whether these SIP
strengthening components met specific nonattainment plan requirements,
including control strategy requirements in CAA section 189 and 40 CFR
51.1010 or the contingency measure requirements in CAA section
172(c)(9) and 40 CFR 51.1014. EPA's proposed determination on whether
these components meet the nonattainment plan requirements is contained
in this document.
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    \6\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, III.D.7.12 (i.e.,
Alaska's planning chapter related to air quality forecasting and
curtailment levels).
    \7\ For a description of the specific control measures addressed
across the State's SIP submissions, see 86 FR 52997, September 24,
2021.
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    Alaska's air quality monitoring network for the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment Area has included four regulatory
monitor site locations. Table 1 in this document includes the site
names, identification number, monitor data, and design values for the
PM2.5 monitor site locations in Fairbanks. With EPA
approval, the State discontinued the monitor location at the State
Office Building and established the A Street monitor as a monitor
location in 2019. Alaska established the A Street monitor location as a
State or Local Air Monitoring Station (SLAMS) PM2.5
monitoring station to characterize PM2.5 concentrations in
the City of Fairbanks. The Hurst Road monitor measures expected maximum
concentrations for the nonattainment area.\8\ We note Alaska flagged
monitor data in 2019 influenced by wildfire smoke. We discuss in
section III.3 of this document how Alaska's demonstration was
considered for attainment modeling, but this wildfire-influenced data
in 2019 was not regulatory significant under 40 CFR 50.14(a), so the
monitor data has not been excluded from the official design value in
EPA's Air Quality System (AQS).\9\
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    \8\ For further details of the air quality monitoring network in
the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area, EPA's approval
letters of Alaska's Annual Monitoring Network Plans for each year
between 2019 to 2022 are included in the docket for this action.
    \9\ Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation. (April 14,
2021). Exceptional Events Waiver Request, For Exceptional PM2.5
Events Between May 26, and July 26, 2019, in the Fairbanks North
Star Borough, Alaska. Alaska Department of Environmental
Conservation, Air Quality Division

                                    Table 1--Fairbanks PM2.5 Monitoring Locations and Recent Site-Level Design Values
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                                                                                98th percentile  ([micro]g/m\3\)    2019-2021  24-
                Local site name                           Site location                AQS ID     ---------------------------------------  hour  design
                                                                                2019 **        2020         2021        value **
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Hurst Road *..................................  3288 Hurst Road, North Pole......     02-090-0035         78.3         71.4         65.5              72
A Street......................................  397 Hamilton Ave., Fairbanks.....     02-090-0040     *** 34.1         36.1     *** 29.6          *** 33
NCore.........................................  809 Pioneer Road, Fairbanks......     02-090-0034         60.0         26.6         27.5              38
State Office Building.........................  675 7th Avenue, Fairbanks........     02-090-0010     *** 34.7          n/a          n/a          *** 35
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* Monitor location previously referred to as North Pole Fire Station.
** Data in this table includes state-flagged monitor days in 2019 that were influenced by wildfires.
*** Incomplete monitor data and/or invalid 3-year design value. In July 2019, Alaska shut down the regulatory PM2.5 monitor at the State Office Building
  and established a new maximum impact PM2.5 monitoring site at the A Street location. Due to data issues in 2021, an official 98th percentile
  measurement for A Street could not be calculated.
Source: EPA 2021 AQS Design Value Report.

A. Environmental Justice Considerations

    Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994) requires that
Federal agencies, to the greatest extent practicable and permitted by
law, identify and address disproportionately high and adverse human
health or environmental effects of their actions on minority and low-
income populations. Additionally, Executive Order 13985 (86 FR 7009,
January 25, 2021) directs Federal government agencies to assess
whether, and to what extent, their programs and policies perpetuate
systemic barriers to opportunities and benefits for people of color and
other underserved groups, and Executive Order 14008 (86 FR 7619,
February 1, 2021) directs Federal agencies to develop programs,
policies, and activities to address the disproportionate health,
environmental, economic, and climate impacts on disadvantaged
communities.
    To identify environmental burdens and susceptible populations in

underserved communities in the Fairbanks Nonattainment Area and to
better understand the context of our proposed action on the Fairbanks
Serious Plan and Fairbanks 189(d) Plan on these communities, we
conducted a screening-level analysis using EPA's environmental justice
(EJ) screening and mapping tool (``EJSCREEN'').\10\
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    \10\ EJSCREEN provides a nationally consistent dataset and
approach for combining environmental and demographic indicators.
EJSCREEN is available at https://www.epa.gov/ejscreen/what-ejscreen.
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    There are 12 environmental justice indices available on
EJSCREEN,\11\ each index combines demographic factors with a single
environmental factor. Although the EJSCREEN indices for
PM2.5 and Ozone are not available for Fairbanks, Alaska, we
note that the Fairbanks Nonattainment Area has some of the highest
PM2.5 concentrations in the country and has been designated
a PM2.5 nonattainment area since 2009. Residents in
Fairbanks and North Pole have been subject to a high pollution burden
for many years. Other health and socioeconomic indices, identified in
EJSCREEN, that are impacted by elevated PM2.5 concentrations
include: low life expectancy (95-100 percentile) and asthma (90-95
percentile) in an area south of downtown Fairbanks and population under
age 5 (95-100 percentile) in various areas in Fairbanks and North Pole.
Most of Alaska, including the Fairbanks area, is considered ``medically
underserved.'' \12\
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    \11\ Environmental indices include: particulate matter
PM2.5; Ozone; Diesel particulate matter; Air Toxics
cancer risk; Air toxics respiratory hazard index; Traffic proximity
and volume; Lead paint; Superfund proximity; Risk management plan
(RMP) facility proximity; Hazardous waste proximity; Underground
storage tanks (UST) and leaking UST (LUST); and Wastewater
discharge.
    \12\ Medically Underserved Areas are defined by the Health
Resources and Services Administration as geographic areas with a
lack of access to primary care services. For more information see:
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/workforce-shortage-areas/shortage-designation#mups.
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    A review of other environmental justice indices in EJSCREEN for the
cities of Fairbanks, AK and North Pole, AK are below the 80th
percentile, with some areas around downtown Fairbanks in the 80-90th
percentile for the following indices: Superfund proximity, Hazardous
waste proximity, Underground storage tanks. No indices are above the
90th percentile for the Fairbanks Nonattainment Area. EJSCREEN reports
for Fairbanks and North Pole are included in the docket for this
action.
    As discussed in EPA's EJ technical guidance, people of color and
low-income populations often experience greater exposure and disease
burdens than the general population, which can increase their
susceptibility to adverse health effects from environmental
stressors.\13\ Underserved communities may have a compromised ability
to cope with or recover from such exposures due to a range of physical,
chemical, biological, social, and cultural factors.\14\
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    \13\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (June 2016).
Technical Guidance for Assessing Environmental Justice in Regulatory
Analysis. Section 4.
    \14\ Id. at section 4.1.
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    If EPA were to finalize the proposed disapprovals described in
section III of this proposed rulemaking, Alaska would be required to
submit a plan revision for the Fairbanks Nonattainment Area to address
the identified deficiencies. In addition, as summarized in section IV
of this proposed rulemaking, such final action would trigger clocks for
the Fairbanks Nonattainment Area for offset sanctions 18 months after
the final rule effective date, highway funding sanctions six months
after the offset sanctions, and the obligation for EPA to promulgate a
Federal implementation plan (FIP) within two years of the final rule
effective date. Alaska's expeditious submission of plan revisions that
correct the deficiencies identified in this document will ensure the
plan meets CAA requirements, and the measures in the plan when
implemented achieves attainment as expeditiously as practicable. And in
doing so, the plan revisions address harmful and disproportionate
health and environmental effects on underserved and overburdened
populations, consistent with the principles of environmental justice.

II. Clean Air Act Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Area Plans and for
PM2.5 Serious Areas That Fail To Attain

A. Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Area Plans

    On August 24, 2016, EPA promulgated the final rule entitled, ``Fine
Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards: State
Implementation Plan Requirements'' (PM2.5 SIP Requirements
Rule).\15\ The PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule is codified at 40
CFR part 51, subpart Z. The PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule
establishes regulatory requirements and provides interpretive guidance
on the statutory SIP requirements that apply to states with areas
designated nonattainment for the PM2.5 standards. Because
this action addresses planning requirements for Serious nonattainment
areas and the planning requirements under CAA section 189(d) for
Serious nonattainment areas that failed to attain by the attainment
date, both planning requirements will be discussed here.
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    \15\ 81 FR 58010, August 24, 2016. Prior to promulgating the
PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule, EPA provided its
interpretations of the CAA's requirements for particulate matter
plans under part D, title I of the Act in the following guidance
documents: (1) ``State Implementation Plans; General Preamble for
the Implementation of Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1990'' (``General Preamble''); (2) ``State Implementation Plans;
General Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of the Clean Air
Act Amendments of 1990; Supplemental'' (``General Preamble
Supplement''); and (3) ``State Implementation Plans for Serious PM-
10 Nonattainment Areas, and Attainment Date Waivers for PM-10
Nonattainment Areas Generally; Addendum to the General Preamble for
the Implementation of Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1990'' (``General Preamble Addendum'').
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    Upon reclassification of a Moderate nonattainment area as a Serious
nonattainment area under subpart 4 of part D, title I of the CAA, the
Act requires the State to submit a Serious area nonattainment plan that
addresses specific requirements.\16\ In accordance with subpart 4 of
part D, title I of the CAA and the PM2.5 SIP Requirements
Rule at 40 CFR 51.1003(b), Serious area nonattainment plans must
address the following requirements:
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    \16\ CAA section 189(b), 42 U.S.C. 7513a(b); see also 81 FR
58010, at pp. 58074-58075, August 24, 2016.
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    1. Base year emissions inventory meeting the requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(3) \17\ and 40 CFR 51.1008(b)(1);
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    \17\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(3).
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    2. Attainment projected emissions inventory meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) \18\ and 40 CFR 51.1008(b)(2);
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    \18\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(1).
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    3. Serious area nonattainment plan control strategy meeting the
requirements of CAA section 189(b)(1)(B) \19\ and 40 CFR 51.1010,
including provisions to assure that the best available control measures
(BACM) and best available control technologies (BACT), for the control
of direct PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors are
implemented no later than four years after the area is reclassified
(CAA section 189(b)(1)(B) \20\);
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    \19\ 42 U.S.C. 7513a(b)(1)(B).
    \20\ Id.
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    4. Attainment demonstration and modeling meeting the requirements
of CAA sections 188(c)(2) and 189(b)(1)(A) \21\ and 40 CFR 51.1011;
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    \21\ 42 U.S.C. 7513(c)(2) and 7513a(b)(1)(A).
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    5. Reasonable further progress (RFP) provisions meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2) \22\ and 40 CFR 51.1012;
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    \22\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(2).
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    6. Quantitative milestones meeting the requirements of CAA section
189(c) \23\ and 40 CFR 51.1013;
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    \23\ 42 U.S.C. 7513a(c).

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    7. An evaluation by the state of sources of all four
PM2.5 precursors for regulation, and implementation of
controls on all such precursors, unless the state provides an adequate
demonstration establishing that it is either not necessary to regulate
a particular precursor in the nonattainment area at issue in order to
attain by the attainment date, or that emissions of the precursor do
not make a significant contribution to PM2.5 levels that
exceed the standard; \24\
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    \24\ CAA section 189(e), 42 U.S.C. 7513a(e) and 40 CFR 51.1006,
51.1010.
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    8. Contingency measures meeting the requirements of CAA section
172(c)(9) \25\ and 40 CFR 51.1014; and
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    \25\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(9).
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    9. Nonattainment new source review provisions meeting the
requirements of CAA section 189(b)(3) and 40 CFR 51.165.
    In the Serious area nonattainment plan, a state must also satisfy
the requirements for the Moderate area plan in CAA section 189(a), to
the extent the state has not already met those requirements in the
Moderate area plan submitted for the area (see CAA section 189(b)(1),
40 CFR 51.1003(b), and 81 FR 58010, August 24, 2016, at page 58075). In
addition, the Serious area nonattainment plan must meet the general
requirements applicable to all SIP submissions under CAA section 110,
including the requirement to provide necessary assurances that the
implementing agencies have adequate personnel, funding, and authority
under CAA section 110(a)(2)(E), and the requirements concerning
enforcement provisions in CAA section 110(a)(2)(C).

B. Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Areas That Fail To Attain

    In the event that a Serious area fails to attain the
PM2.5 NAAQS by the applicable attainment date, CAA section
189(d) \26\ requires that ``the State in which such area is located
shall, after notice and opportunity for public comment, submit within
12 months after the applicable attainment date, plan revisions which
provide for attainment of the . . . standard . . .'' The attainment
plan required under CAA section 189(d) must, among other things,
demonstrate expeditious attainment of the NAAQS within the time period
provided under CAA section 179(d)(3) \27\ and provide for annual
reductions in emissions of direct PM2.5 or a
PM2.5 plan precursor pollutant within the area of not less
than five percent per year from the most recent emissions inventory for
the area until attainment.\28\ In addition to the requirement to submit
control measures providing for a five percent reduction in emissions of
certain pollutants on an annual basis, EPA interprets CAA section
189(d) as requiring a state to submit an attainment plan that includes
the same basic statutory plan elements that are required for other
attainment plans. Specifically, a state must submit to EPA its plan to
meet the requirements of CAA section 189(d) in the form of a complete
attainment plan submission that includes the following elements: \29\
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    \26\ 42 U.S.C. 7513a(d).
    \27\ 42 U.S.C. 7509(d)(3).
    \28\ 81 FR 58010, at page 58098.
    \29\ 40 CFR 51.1003(c)(1).
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    1. Base year emissions inventory meeting the requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(3) \30\ and 40 CFR 51.1008(c)(1);
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    \30\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(3).
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    2. Attainment projected emissions inventory meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) \31\ and 40 CFR 51.1008(c)(2);
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    \31\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(1).
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    3. Unless previously met, a Serious area nonattainment plan control
strategy that ensures that best available control measures (BACM),
including best available control technologies (BACT), for the control
of direct PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors are
implemented in the area (CAA section 189(b)(1)(B) \32\ and 40 CFR
51.1010(a)).
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    \32\ 42 U.S.C. 7513a(b)(1)(B).
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    4. Additional measures (beyond those already adopted in previous
nonattainment plan SIP submissions for the area as RACM/RACT, BACM/
BACT, and Most Stringent Measures (MSM) \33\ (if applicable)) that
provide for attainment of the NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable
and, from the date of such submission until attainment, demonstrate
that the plan will at a minimum achieve an annual five percent
reduction in emission of direct PM2.5 or any
PM2.5 plan precursor from the most recent emissions
inventory for the area. The state must reconsider and reassess any
measures previously rejected by the state during the development of any
Moderate area or Serious area attainment plan control strategy for the
area. 40 CFR 51.1010(c).
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    \33\ MSM is applicable if EPA has previously granted an
extension of the attainment date under CAA section 188(e) for the
nonattainment area and NAAQS at issue. EPA denied Alaska's request
to extend the Serious area attainment date for the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment Area. Therefore, MSM is not
applicable to the Fairbanks Serious Plan or Fairbanks 189(d) Plan.
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    5. Attainment demonstration and modeling meeting the requirements
of CAA sections 188(c)(2) and 189(b)(1)(A) \34\ and 40 CFR 51.1011;
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    \34\ 42 U.S.C. 7513(c)(2) and 7513a(b)(1)(A).
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    6. Reasonable further progress (RFP) provisions meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2) \35\ and 40 CFR 51.1012;
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    \35\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(2).
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    7. Quantitative milestones meeting the requirements of CAA section
189(c) \36\ and 40 CFR 51.1013;
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    \36\ 42 U.S.C. 7513a(c).
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    8. An evaluation by the state of sources of all four
PM2.5 precursors for regulation, and implementation of
controls on all such precursors, unless the state provides an adequate
demonstration establishing that it is either not necessary to regulate
a particular precursor in the nonattainment area at issue in order to
attain by the attainment date, or that emissions of the precursor do
not make a significant contribution to PM2.5 levels that
exceed the standard; \37\
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    \37\ 40 CFR 51.1006.
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    9. Contingency measures meeting the requirements of CAA section
172(c)(9) \38\ and 40 CFR 51.1014; and
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    \38\ 42 U.S.C. 7502(c)(9).
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    10. Nonattainment new source review provisions meeting the
requirements of CAA section 189(b)(3) \39\ and 40 CFR 51.165.
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    \39\ 42 U.S.C. 7513a(b)(3).
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C. Combined Requirements for PM2.5 Serious Areas and Serious Areas That
Fail To Attain

    On September 2, 2020, EPA determined that the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment Area failed to attain the 2006 24-hour
PM2.5 NAAQS by the Serious area attainment date and denied
the State's Serious area attainment date extension request (85 FR
54509). This action triggered the obligation for the State to make a
new SIP submission to meet the requirements laid out in Section II.B of
this document, including submission of a new plan containing all the
elements in 40 CFR 51.1003(c). EPA's determination that Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment Area failed to attain the NAAQS did not,
however, nullify the State's obligation to meet the still outstanding
requirements for PM2.5 Serious areas laid out in Section
II.A, including the requirement to adopt and submit a plan containing
all the elements in 40 CFR 51.1003(b). Moreover, a result of the
determination of failure to attain was to require the State to make a
SIP submission meeting the requirements of CAA section 189(d) and
providing for attainment by a later attainment date. Because CAA
section 189(d) does not itself supply a specific date, EPA interprets
the CAA to impose the attainment date requirements of CAA section 172
and 179, and as

interpreted in 40 CFR 51.1004(a)(3), rather than the date imposed in
CAA section 182(c)(2) and as interpreted in 40 CFR 51.1004(a)(2).
    Consistent with the deadlines laid out in the CAA, Serious area
plans are intended to be submitted and approved or disapproved well
before the Serious area attainment date.\40\ The Serious plan must be
designed to achieve attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but no
later than the outermost statutory attainment date, which is the end of
the tenth calendar year following the area's designation to
nonattainment.\41\ If implementation of the Serious Plan fails to
achieve attainment by the Serious area attainment date, the state must
submit a new plan meeting the requirements for Serious areas that fail
to attain in CAA section 189(d).\42\ The state must design this new CAA
section 189(d)plan to achieve attainment as expeditiously as
practicable, but no later than the deadlines in CAA sections 172 and
179.\43\ Thus, the CAA requires states to adopt and implement a plan
meeting the requirement of CAA section 189(d) only after adopting and
implementing a fully-approved Serious area plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \40\ CAA section 189(b)(2) and 40 CFR 51.1003.
    \41\ CAA section 189(b)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1004(a)(2).
    \42\ CAA section 189(d) and 40 CFR 51.1003(c).
    \43\ CAA sections 172 and 179 and 40 CFR 51.1004(a)(3)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Accordingly, the CAA does not contain provisions that address
precisely how a state should meet all of the planning requirements for
a Serious nonattainment area, after such area has already failed to
attain the NAAQS, but before the state has met all of the planning
requirements for Serious nonattainment areas. By extension, the CAA
does not account for potential conflicts between the required plan
provisions for Serious area plans and Section 189(d) plans,
particularly with respect to the attainment projected inventory,
attainment demonstration, RFP, and quantitative milestone (QM) plan
provisions. These elements are required for all PM2.5
nonattainment plans and are dependent on a single projected attainment
date that complies with the statutory requirements governing the area.
Thus, in the event that a state is obligated to submit both a Serious
area plan and a Section 189(d) plan, a conflict arises between the
applicable attainment date by which states should structure these plan
provisions and against which EPA should evaluate them. Such conflict
exists here.
    EPA acknowledges that the complicated series of events and
chronology in this situation make it more difficult to evaluate the
State's remaining Serious area plan obligations and new section 189(d)
plan obligations. Alaska submitted the Serious Area Plan on December
13, 2019, 18 days before the then-applicable attainment date of
December 31, 2019. This plan included a request to extend the
attainment date from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2024, pursuant
to CAA section 188(e), which EPA denied.\44\ EPA also has not fully
approved this Plan. Notably, EPA has not approved the attainment
projected inventory, attainment demonstration, RFP, and QM plan
provisions of the Serious Area Plan submitted on December 13, 2019.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \44\ 85 FR 54509
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As discussed in this section, on September 2, 2020, EPA determined
that the area failed to attain the 2006 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS
by December 31, 2019. As a result, the attainment projected inventory,
attainment demonstration, RFP, and QM provisions of the December 13,
2019, Serious Area Plan submission did not meet CAA requirements for
Serious areas. Moreover, no revisions to these plan provisions could
satisfy the Serious area planning requirements because the Serious area
attainment date has already passed. Alaska subsequently withdrew these
plan provisions and replaced them with the submission of the Fairbanks
189(d) Plan and structured the new plan provisions around the
applicable attainment date for Serious areas that fail to attain.
    EPA now needs to take action on the nonattainment plan SIP
submissions for the Fairbanks Nonattainment Area that are currently
before the agency in a way that is logical and most consistent with the
statutory and regulatory requirements. Given the impossibility of the
State now submitting a Serious area plan designed to achieve an
attainment date that has already passed and that the applicable
attainment date for the Fairbanks Nonattainment Area is now governed by
CAA sections 172 and 179 and 40 CFR 51.1004(a)(3), EPA proposes that it
should evaluate any previously unmet Serious area planning obligations
based on the current, applicable attainment date under CAA section
189(d), and not the original Serious area attainment date.\45\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \45\ 86 FR 53150, September 24, 2021, at p. 53155.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thus, the combined planning requirements EPA is evaluating as part
of the Fairbanks Serious Plan and Fairbanks 189(d) Plan submissions are
included in Table 2:

   Table 2--Combined Fairbanks Serious Plan and Fairbanks 189(d) Plan
                              Requirements
 [CAA planning requirements for PM2.5 serious areas and areas that fail
                               to attain]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Legal/ regulatory
                   Description                          requirement
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base year emissions inventory for Serious areas   CAA section 172(c)(3);
 subject to CAA section 189(b) *.                  40 CFR 51.1008(b)(1).
Base year emissions inventory for areas subject   CAA section 172(c)(3);
 to CAA section 189(d).                            40 CFR 51.1008(c)(1).
Attainment projected emissions inventory........  CAA section 172(c)(1);
                                                   40 CFR 51.1008(c)(2).
Serious area nonattainment plan control strategy  CAA section
 that ensures that best available control          189(b)(1)(B); 40 CFR
 measures (BACM), including best available         51.1010(a).
 control technologies (BACT), for the control of
 direct PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors are
 implemented in the area.
Additional measures (beyond those already         CAA section 189(d);40
 adopted in previous nonattainment plan SIP        CFR 51.1010(c).
 submissions for the area as RACM/RACT, BACM/
 BACT, and Most Stringent Measures (MSM) \46\
 (if applicable)) that provide for attainment of
 the NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable and,
 from the date of such submission until
 attainment, demonstrate that the plan will at a
 minimum achieve an annual five percent
 reduction in emission of direct PM2.5 or any
 PM2.5 plan precursor. The state must reconsider
 and reassess any measures previously rejected
 by the state during the development of any
 Moderate area or Serious area attainment plan
 control strategy for the area.

Attainment demonstration and modeling...........  CAA sections 188(c)(2)
                                                   and 189(b)(1)(A); 40
                                                   CFR 51.1003(c) and
                                                   51.1011.
Reasonable further progress (RFP) provisions....  CAA section 172(c)(2);
                                                   40 CFR 51.1012.
Quantitative milestones.........................  CAA section 189(c); 40
                                                   CFR 51.1013.
An adequate evaluation by the state of sources    CAA section 189(e);40
 of all four PM2.5 precursors for regulation,      CFR 51.1006.
 and implementation of controls on all such
 precursors, unless the state provides a
 demonstration establishing that it is either
 not necessary to regulate a particular
 precursor in the nonattainment area at issue in
 order to attain by the attainment date, or that
 emissions of the precursor do not make a
 significant contribution to PM2.5 levels that
 exceed the standard.**
Contingency measures applicable to Serious areas  CAA section 172(c)(9);
 subject to CAA section 189(b).                    40 CFR 51.1014.
Contingency measures applicable to Serious areas  CAA section 172(c)(9);
 subject to CAA section 189(d).                    40 CFR 51.1014.
Nonattainment new source review provisions......  CAA section 189(b)(3);
                                                   40 CFR 51.165.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* EPA finalized approval of this requirement on September 24, 2021 (86
  FR 52997).
** EPA finalized approval of this requirement applicable to Serious
  areas subject to CAA section 189(b) on September 24, 2021 (86 FR
  52997).

    As noted in section I of this document, EPA approved parts of the
Fairbanks Serious Plan as meeting the base year emission inventory
requirements, PM2.5 precursor demonstration requirements,
and the nonattainment new source review provisions (86 FR 52997,
September 24, 2021; see also 84 FR 45419, August 29, 2019). Therefore,
the ensuing evaluation focuses on the remaining statutory and
regulatory requirements applicable to Serious nonattainment plan
provisions. Additionally, we are also evaluating whether the December
15, 2020, submission meets the additional planning requirements of a
revised Serious area attainment plan under CAA section 189(d) and 40
CFR 51.1003(c).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \46\ MSM is applicable if EPA has previously granted an
extension of the attainment date under CAA section 188(e) for the
nonattainment area and NAAQS at issue. EPA denied Alaska's request
to extend the Serious area attainment date for the Fairbanks Serious
Nonattainment Area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

III. Review of the Fairbanks Serious Plan and Fairbanks 189(d) Plan

A. Emission Inventories

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    CAA section 172(c)(3) requires that states submit a comprehensive,
accurate, and current inventory of actual emissions from all sources of
the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the nonattainment area as part
of a nonattainment plan for such area. The regulation at 40 CFR 51.1008
contains the requirements for emission inventories.\47\ EPA has also
issued additional guidance concerning emissions inventories for
PM2.5 nonattainment areas.\48\ In accordance with 40 CFR
51.1008, the attainment plan must include a base year emissions
inventory and attainment projected emissions inventory.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \47\ 81 FR 58010, August 24, 2016, at pp. 58078-58079.
    \48\ ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone
and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,'' EPA, May 2017 (``Emissions
Inventory Guidance''), available at: https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/air-emissions-inventory-guidance-implementation-ozone-and-particulate.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The base year emissions inventory for a Serious PM2.5
nonattainment area must be one of the three years for which EPA used
monitored data to reclassify the area to Serious, or another
technically appropriate year justified by the state in its Serious area
nonattainment plan SIP submission.\49\ Similarly, the base year
emission inventory for a nonattainment area subject to CAA section
189(d) must be one of the three years for which monitored data were
used by EPA to determine the area failed to attain by the
PM2.5 NAAQS by the applicable Serious area attainment date,
or another technically appropriate year justified by the state in its
Serious area nonattainment plan SIP submission.\50\ The base year
emissions inventory should provide a state's best estimate of actual
emissions from all sources, i.e., all emissions that contribute to the
formation of PM2.5. The emissions must be either annual
total emissions, average-season day emissions, or both, as appropriate
for the relevant annual versus 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS. The
state must include a rationale for providing annual or seasonal
emission inventories, and justification for the period used for any
seasonal emissions calculations.\51\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \49\ 40 CFR 51.1008(b)(1).
    \50\ 40 CFR 51.1008(c)(1).
    \51\ 40 CFR 51.1008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    According to 40 CFR 51.1008, the Serious Plan and 189(d) Plan must
include an attainment projected inventory for the nonattainment area.
The year of the projected inventory shall be the most expeditious year
for which projected emissions show modeled PM2.5
concentrations below the level of the NAAQS. The emissions values shall
be projected emissions of the same sources included in the base year
inventory for the nonattainment area (i.e., those only within the
nonattainment area) and any new sources. The state shall include in
this inventory projected emissions growth and contraction from both
controls and other causes during the relevant period. The temporal
period of emissions shall be the same temporal period (annual, average-
season-day, or both) as the base year inventory for the nonattainment
area. The same sources reported as point sources in the base year
inventory for the nonattainment area shall be included as point sources
in the attainment projected inventory for the nonattainment area.
Stationary nonpoint and mobile source projected emissions shall be
provided using the same detail

(e.g., state, county, and process codes) as the base year inventory for
the nonattainment area. The same detail of the emissions included shall
be consistent with the level of detail and data elements as in the base
year inventory for the nonattainment area (i.e., as required by 40 CFR
part 51, subpart A). Consistent with the base year inventory for the
nonattainment area, the inventory shall include direct PM2.5
emissions, separately reported PM2.5 filterable and
condensable emissions, and emissions of the scientific PM2.5
precursors, including precursors that are not significant
PM2.5 plan precursors pursuant to a precursor demonstration
under 40 CFR 51.1006.
    A state's SIP submission must include documentation explaining how
it calculated emissions data for the inventory and be consistent with
the data elements required by 40 CFR part 51, subpart A. In estimating
mobile source emissions, a state must use the latest emissions models
and planning assumptions available at the time the SIP is
developed.\52\ States are also required to use EPA's ``Compilation of
Air Pollutant Emission Factors'' (``AP-42'') road dust method for
calculating re-entrained road dust emissions from paved
roads.53 54
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \52\ See CAA section 172(c)(3).
    \53\ EPA released an update to AP-42 in January 2011 that
revised the equation for estimating paved road dust emissions based
on an updated data regression that included new emission tests
results. 76 FR 6328 (February 4, 2011).
    \54\ AP-42 has been published since 1972 as the primary source
of EPA's emission factor information. https://www.epa.gov/air-emissionsfactors-and-quantification/ap-42-compilation-airemissions-factors. It contains emission factors and process information for
more than 200 air pollution source categories. A source category is
a specific industry sector or group of similar emitting sources. The
emission factors have been developed and compiled from source test
data, material balance studies, and engineering estimates.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of State's Submission
    The base year planning emissions inventory for direct
PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors (nitrogen oxides
(NOX), sulfur dioxide (SO2), volatile organic
compounds (VOC), and ammonia (NH3)) and the documentation
for the inventory for the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area
are located in State Air Quality Control Plan, Chapter III.D.7.6
(``Emissions Inventory Data'') and Appendix III.D.7.6 of the Fairbanks
189(d) Plan.\55\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \55\ Adopted November 18, 2020.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The State developed the inventory using data sources and emission
calculation methodologies from the approved Fairbanks Serious Plan,
2013 base year emissions inventory, as its starting point and then
updated the emissions totals based on additional source and activity
data collected since preparation of that inventory. The State based the
2019 base year inventory included in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan on
historical source activity data in calendar year 2019 for all source
sectors. EPA's MOVES2014b model was used for on-road vehicles
(including effects of the on-going Federal Motor Vehicle Control
Program and Tier 3 fuel standards, coupled with Alaska Ultra Low Sulfur
Diesel standards) and non-road vehicles and equipment (including the
effect of Federal fuel and Alaska ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD)
programs for non-road fuel).

             Table 3--2019 Baseline Episode Average Daily Emissions (Tons per Day) by Source Sector
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   2019 Base year emissions inventory (tons/day)
          Source sector          -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       PM2.5            NOX             SO2             VOC             NH3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Point Sources...................            0.57           10.31            5.68            0.03           0.073
Area, Space Heating.............            1.91            2.43            3.88            8.60           0.132
    Area, Space Heat, Wood......            1.77            0.39            0.16            8.38           0.086
    Area, Space Heat, Oil.......            0.06            1.82            3.62            0.10           0.004
    Area, Space Heat, Coal......            0.07            0.05            0.09            0.11           0.014
    Area, Space Heat, Other.....            0.01            0.17            0.02            0.01           0.029
Area, Other.....................            0.22            0.36            0.03            2.10           0.046
On-Road Mobile..................            0.22            1.70            0.01            3.83           0.040
Non-Road Mobile.................            0.26            0.94            5.41            4.16           0.002
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Totals......................            3.17           15.73           15.01           18.72           0.293
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, III.D.7.6, Table 7.6-7

    The State focused on what it identified as the three most important
source types in the airshed: stationary point sources; space heating
area (nonpoint) sources; and on-road mobile sources. At the time the
State developed the emissions inventory, these three source types were
the major contributors to both direct PM2.5 emissions as
well as emissions of PM2.5 precursor pollutants gases
SO2, NOX, VOC, and NH3 within the
nonattainment area.
    The emission sources with the highest relative direct
PM2.5 contributions were:
     55.8% for wood-fired space heating;
     17.9% stationary sources;
     8.1% non-road mobile; and
     6.8% on-road mobile.
    The emission sources with the highest relative SO2
contributions were:
     37.9% stationary sources;
     36% non-road mobile; and
     24.1% oil-fired space heating.
    The emission sources with the highest relative NOX
contributions were:
     65.5% stationary sources;
     11.6% oil-fired space heating;
     10.8% on-road mobile; and
     6% non-road mobile.
    The emission sources with the highest relative VOC contributions
were:
     44.8% for wood-fired space heating;
     22.2% non-road mobile; and
     20.5% on-road mobile.
    The emission sources with the highest relative NH3
contributions were:
     29.3% for wood-fired space heating;
     25% stationary sources;
     15.8% other area sources; and
     13.5% on-road mobile.\56\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \56\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, III.D.7.6, Figures
7.6-8--7.6-12.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    EPA's technical evaluation of Alaska's Emissions Inventory planning
sections is included in the docket for this action.\57\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \57\ Kotchenruther, B. (August 24, 2022). Technical support
document for Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation's
amendments to: State Air Quality Control Plan, Emission Inventory
Data (version adopted November 18, 2020). U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Region 10, Laboratory Services and Applied
Sciences Division.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

a. 2024 Attainment Projected Inventory
    The Fairbanks 189(d) Plan includes an attainment projected
inventory for 2024.\58\ Previously Alaska stated that attainment by
2024 was not practicable and estimated that 2029 was the most
expeditious attainment date.\59\ EPA did not take action on the
attainment projected emissions inventory submitted as part of the
Fairbanks Serious Plan (see 86 FR 52997, September 24, 2021). Alaska
has subsequently withdrawn and replaced the applicable planning chapter
from that SIP submission with a revised attainment projected emission
inventory included in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan. Consistent with these
statements, EPA is proposing to evaluate any previously unmet Serious
area planning obligations based on the current, applicable attainment
date appropriate under CAA section 189(d) and not the original Serious
area attainment date.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \58\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter III.D.7.9.
    \59\ The State included an attainment projected emissions
inventory in the Fairbanks Serious Plan, submitted on December 13,
2019, which also projected attainment in 2024. However, the
Attainment Demonstration chapter in the Fairbanks Serious Plan
stated that attainment by 2024 was not practicable. Instead, the
State estimated the most expeditious attainment date is 2029.
However, Alaska did not identify a 2029 inventory in the Emissions
Inventory chapter nor adequately demonstrate that 2029 was the most
expeditious attainment date. The State did, however, produce a 2029
inventory for the Reasonable Further Progress plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thus, EPA views the 2024 attainment projected inventory included in
the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan as the applicable projected inventory, which
is based on the 2019 base year inventory of actual emissions. The 2024
emissions projection follows two steps. First, the State projected the
2019 base year emissions to 2024 based on forecasted source activity
changes coupled with changes in emission factors due to already adopted
Federal, state, and local control measures that existed prior to the
development of the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan. Second, the State modified
these initial 2024 emissions projections based on the suite of
additional emission reductions from measures the State will be
implementing under the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan.
    The State forecasted emissions reductions from the ongoing Wood
Stove Change Out Program \60\ and the Oil-To-Gas Conversion Program
\61\ in Fairbanks beyond 2019 based on an analysis of the historical
change out program activity and existing funding available for future
changeouts, as well as certifying that no new staffing will be required
to handle projected changeouts through 2024. Alaska projected the
additional emissions reductions in PM2.5 and SO2
from these measures to be 0.6941 tons per day and 0.0083 tons per day,
respectively, in 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \60\ The Woodstove Changeout Program, administered by the
Fairbanks North Star Borough Air Quality Program, is primarily
funded through EPA's Targeted Airshed Grant, along with local and
state funding. The program has received $32 million in total funding
since 2010. The program upgrades or removes solid fuel-fired and
oil-fired heating devices. Since 2010, the change out program has
evolved to ensure the best emission outcomes by narrowing
eligibility, and what types of devices may be installed.
    \61\ Funded and managed by the Fairbanks North Star Borough Air
Quality Program, residential oil heating appliances are changed out
for natural gas-fired heating devices to support natural gas
expansion through conversion of to gas heating appliances. The
program has received $2 million in total funding since 2019.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The State based emissions reductions for the Solid-Fuel Burning
Appliance Curtailment Program \62\ in Fairbanks on Alaska's revisions
in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan that increases the stringency of the
existing curtailment program. Under the latest regulations, the State
lowered the curtailment program's two air quality alert stages to 20
[mu]g/m\3\ and 30 [mu]g/m\3\, respectively, for Stage 1 and Stage 2
alerts (down from 25 [mu]g/m\3\ and 35 [mu]g/m\3\, respectively). In
addition, Alaska plans to utilize 2019-2020 Targeted Airshed Grant
(TAG) funding to install several dynamic highway message signs,
purchase an infrared camera, and expand staffing to increase
compliance. As a result, Alaska estimated that the curtailment program
compliance rate will increase from 30% in 2019 to 45% by 2024. Alaska
projected the additional emissions reductions in PM2.5 and
SO2 from these measures to be 0.351 tons per day and -0.058
tons per day, respectively, in 2024 (an increase in SO2
results from the projected increase in conversions to liquid-fueled
heating devices).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \62\ Fairbanks Emergency Episode Plan, State Air Quality Control
Plan, Vol. II, Chapter III.D.7.12; 18 AAC 50.030(a); 18 AAC
50.075(e).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The State also incorporated point source SO2 emissions
reductions under the Fairbanks Serious Plan into the 2024 attainment
projected inventory. For a detailed summary of the attainment projected
inventory, see EPA's Fairbanks Emissions Inventory Technical Support
Document in the docket for this action.\63\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \63\ Kotchenruther, B. (August 24, 2022). Technical support
document for Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation's
amendments to: State Air Quality Control Plan, Emission Inventory
Data (version adopted November 18, 2020). U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Region 10, Laboratory Services and Applied
Sciences Division.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. EPA's Evaluation and Proposed Action
a. 2019 Base Year Emissions Inventory
    EPA proposes to find that the 2019 base year emissions inventory
meets the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1008.
Calendar year 2019 is an appropriate base year for the Fairbanks 189(d)
Plan because it is one of the three years for which EPA used monitored
data to determine that the area failed to attain the PM2.5
NAAQS by the applicable Serious area attainment date.\64\ The base year
emissions inventory is a seasonal inventory, based on two historical
meteorological episodes considered by EPA to be representative of the
range of meteorological conditions that lead to exceedances of the 24-
hour NAAQS. This is an appropriate temporal scope for a base year
emissions inventory where anthropogenic exceedances of the 24-hour
NAAQS occur exclusively in winter.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \64\ 85 FR 54509.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The emissions inventory is of actual emissions in 2019, as required
in the PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule and guidance.\65\ The
emissions inventory also includes separate reporting for filterable and
condensible PM2.5 for the relevant emissions sectors and SCC
codes. The base year 2019 emissions inventory, reported as average
season day emissions, is based on methodologies used by the State and
vetted by EPA in the Fairbanks Moderate and Serious Plans and applied
to the new base year of 2019. Therefore, the inventory reports
emissions consistent with the Air Emissions Reporting Rule (AERR) and
contains the detail and data elements required by 40 CFR part 51,
subpart A. For these reasons, we are proposing to approve the 2019 base
year emissions inventory in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1008.\66\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \65\ 40 CFR 51.1008(a)(1)(ii).
    \66\ We note that EPA approved as meeting the Serious area
planning requirements the 2013 base year emissions inventory on
September 24, 2021 (86 FR 52997).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. 2024 Attainment Projected Inventory
    EPA proposes to find that the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan does not
satisfy the requirement of 40 CFR 51.1008(c)(2) to include an
attainment projected emission inventory for the most expeditious
attainment date. The Fairbanks 189(d) Plan contains an attainment
projected emissions inventory, and Alaska projects attainment by
December 31, 2024. The updated State Air Quality Control Plan

contains the revisions and methodology for the 2024 projected
inventory.\67\ These chapters supersede the chapters that contain the
prior attainment projected inventory. As discussed further in section
III.D of this document, regarding the Attainment Demonstration,
Alaska's proposed attainment date of 2024 is predicated on a modeling
platform that is outdated and lacks the quantitative performance
evaluation and speciated information at the air quality monitor (Hurst
Road in North Pole) with highest PM2.5 concentrations.
Alaska is currently in the process of updating the modeling using the
latest model. Therefore, December 31, 2024, may not be the most
expeditious year for which projected emissions show modeled
concentrations below the level of the NAAQS. Moreover, as discussed
further in section III.C in this document, the control strategy does
not contain all required control measures. Therefore, the attainment
projected emissions inventory does not necessarily take into
consideration all required emissions reductions, so we propose to
disapprove the projected emissions inventory.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \67\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. II, Chapter
III.D.7.6.7-8.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

B. Pollutants Addressed

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Under subpart 4 of part D, title I of the CAA and the
PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule, each state containing a
PM2.5 nonattainment area must evaluate all PM2.5
precursors for regulation unless, for any given PM2.5
precursor, the state demonstrates to the Administrator's satisfaction
that such precursor does not contribute significantly to
PM2.5 levels that exceed the NAAQS in the nonattainment
area.\68\ The provisions of subpart 4 do not define the term
``precursor'' for purposes of PM2.5, nor do they explicitly
require the control of any specifically identified PM2.5
precursor. The statutory definition of ``air pollutant,'' however,
provides that the term ``includes any precursors to the formation of
any air pollutant, to the extent the Administrator has identified such
precursor or precursors for the particular purpose for which the term
`air pollutant' is used.'' \69\ EPA has identified SO2,
NOX, VOCs, and NH3 as precursors to the formation
of PM2.5.\70\ Accordingly, the attainment plan requirements
of part D, title I of the CAA and the PM2.5 SIP Requirements
Rule apply to emissions of all four precursors and direct
PM2.5 from all types of stationary, area, and mobile
sources, except as otherwise provided in CAA section 189(e).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \68\ 40 CFR 51.1006, 51.1010; See 81 FR 58010, August 24, 2016,
at pp. 58017-58020.
    \69\ CAA section 302(g).
    \70\ 81 FR 58010, August 24, 2016, at p. 58015.
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    A large number of chemical reactions, often non-linear in nature,
can convert gaseous SO2, NOX, VOCs, and
NH3 to PM2.5, making them precursors to
PM2.5.\71\ Formation of secondary PM2.5 also
depends on atmospheric conditions, including solar radiation,
temperature, and relative humidity, and the interactions of precursors
with particles and with cloud or fog droplets.\72\ According to the
State, in the Fairbanks Serious Plan, total wintertime PM2.5
concentrations in the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area are
a function of both primary PM2.5 emissions and secondary
PM2.5 formed from precursors (see State Air Quality Control
Plan, Vol II, Chapter III.D.7.8, section 7.8.1 of the Fairbanks Serious
Plan in the docket for this action).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \71\ ``Air Quality Criteria for Particulate Matter'' (EPA/600/P-
99/002aF), EPA, October 2004, Ch. 3.
    \72\ ``Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Revisions to the
National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter''
(EPA/452/R-12-005), EPA, December 2012), 2-1.
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    CAA section 189(e) requires that the control requirements for major
stationary sources of direct PM10 \73\ and PM2.5
\74\ also apply to major stationary sources of PM10 and
PM2.5 precursors, except where the Administrator determines
that such sources do not contribute significantly to PM10 or
PM2.5 levels that exceed the standard in the area. CAA
section 189(e) contains the only express exception to the control
requirements under subpart 4 (e.g., requirements for reasonably
available control measures (RACM) and reasonably available control
technology (RACT), BACM and BACT, Most Stringent Measures (MSM), and
New Source Review (NSR) for sources of direct PM2.5 and
PM2.5 precursor emissions). Although section 189(e)
explicitly addresses only major stationary sources, EPA interprets this
provision as authorizing it also to determine, under appropriate
circumstances, that regulation of specific PM10 or
PM2.5 precursors from other source categories in a given
nonattainment area is not necessary.\75\ For example, under EPA's
longstanding interpretation of the control requirements that apply to
stationary, area, and mobile sources of PM10 precursors in
the nonattainment area under CAA section 172(c)(1) and subpart 4,\76\ a
state may demonstrate in a SIP submission that control of a certain
precursor pollutant is not necessary in light of its insignificant
contribution to ambient PM10 or PM2.5 levels in
the nonattainment area.\77\
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    \73\ The requirements for attainment plans for the 2006 24-hour
PM2.5 NAAQS include the general nonattainment area
planning requirements in CAA section 172 of title I, part D, subpart
1 and the additional planning requirements specific to particulate
matter in CAA sections 188 and 189 of title I, part D, subpart 4. 81
FR 58010, August 24, 2016, at pp. 58012-58014.
    \74\ The general attainment plan requirements of subpart 1, part
D, of Title I of the CAA in addition to the specific requirements in
subpart 4, part D, of Title I of the CAA apply to both
PM10 and PM2.5. See 81 FR 58010, August 24,
2016, at pp. 58013.
    \75\ 81 FR 58010, August 24, 2016, at pp. 58018-58019.
    \76\ General Preamble, 57 FR 13498, April 16, 1992, at pp.
13539-42.
    \77\ 40 CFR 51.1006. See also 81 FR 58010, 58033. Courts have
upheld this approach to the requirements of subpart 4 for
PM10. See, e.g., Assoc. of Irritated Residents v. EPA, et
al., 423 F.3d 989 (9th Cir. 2005).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Under the PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule, a state may elect
to submit to EPA a ``comprehensive precursor demonstration'' for a
specific nonattainment area to show that emissions of a particular
precursor from all existing sources located in the nonattainment area
do not contribute significantly to PM2.5 levels that exceed
the NAAQS at issue in the nonattainment in the area.\78\ If EPA
determines that the contribution of the precursor to PM2.5
levels in the area is not significant and approves the demonstration,
then the state is not required to control emissions of the relevant
precursor from existing sources in the attainment plan.\79\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \78\ 40 CFR 51.1006(a)(1).
    \79\ 40 CFR 51.1006(a)(1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In addition, in May 2019, EPA issued the ``PM2.5
Precursor Demonstration Guidance'' (``PM2.5 Precursor
Guidance''), which provides recommendations to states for analyzing
nonattainment area PM2.5 emissions and developing such
optional precursor demonstrations, consistent with the PM2.5
SIP Requirements Rule.\80\
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    \80\ ``PM2.5 Precursor Demonstration Guidance,'' EPA-
454/R-19-004, May 2019, including Memo dated May 30, 2019, from
Scott Mathias, Acting Director, Air Quality Policy Division and
Richard Wayland, Director, Air Quality Assessment Division, Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS), EPA to Regional Air
Division Directors, Regions 1-10, EPA.
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    EPA is evaluating both the remaining elements of the Fairbanks
Serious Plan before the agency and the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan in
accordance with the presumption embodied within subpart 4 that the
State must address all PM2.5 precursors in the evaluation
and implementation of potential control measures, unless the State
adequately demonstrates that emissions of a particular precursor or
precursors do not contribute significantly to ambient

PM2.5 levels that exceed the PM2.5 NAAQS in the
nonattainment area. In reviewing any determination by the state to
exclude a PM2.5 precursor from the required evaluation of
potential control measures, we considered both the magnitude of the
precursor's contribution to ambient PM2.5 concentrations in
the nonattainment area and the sensitivity of ambient PM2.5
concentrations in the area to reductions in emissions of that
precursor.\81\
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    \81\ 40 CFR 51.1006(a)(1)(i) and (ii).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of State's Submission
    On September 24, 2021, EPA approved Alaska's PM2.5
precursor demonstration submitted as part of the Fairbanks Serious Plan
for purposes of NOX and VOC emissions as it relates to
control measure requirements (86 FR 52997). Alaska included its updated
PM2.5 precursor analysis in the SIP submission to meet CAA
189(d) requirements.\82\ This submission included a new NOX
model run that replaced a quantitative analysis conducted as part of
the Fairbanks Serious Plan submission. Because there were no
significant changes to the modeling platform during the short time
period between the Fairbanks Serious Plan and 189(d) Plan submissions,
the State reasoned that the other model runs and precursor analysis
from the Fairbanks Serious Plan are still applicable as part of the
updated precursor demonstration.
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    \82\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter III.D.7.8,
section <IP_ADDRESS>.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Alaska's precursor demonstration provided both concentration-based
and sensitivity-based analyses of precursor contributions to ambient
PM2.5 concentrations in the Fairbanks PM2.5
Nonattainment Area. For VOC emissions, Alaska's demonstration was based
on a comprehensive precursor analysis where a baseline model run was
compared to a control model run with a 100% reduction of VOC emissions
from anthropogenic sources. These results are well below the 1.5 [mu]g/
m\3\ significance threshold. For NOX emissions, Alaska
included a baseline model run in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan evaluating a
50% reduction in NOX as part of the 189(d) Plan. According
to the State, this provides further evidence that NOX does
not contribute significantly to PM2.5 formation in the
Fairbanks Nonattainment Area. The sensitivity precursor analysis showed
that the maximum 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations due to
anthropogenic NOX emissions were less than or equal to 1.22
[mu]g/m\3\ in 2019 for all model grid cells containing regulatory
monitors, and therefore were below the 1.5 [mu]g/m\3\ threshold.
    These analyses led the State to conclude that SO2 and
NH3 emissions contribute significantly to ambient
PM2.5 levels that exceed the PM2.5 NAAQS in the
Fairbanks Nonattainment Area, while NOX and VOC do not
contribute significantly to such exceedances. Consistent with this
conclusion, the State focused the control strategy and attainment
demonstration on sources of PM2.5, SO2, and
NH3 emissions. A technical summary of Alaska's updated
PM2.5 precursor demonstration is included in the docket for
this action.\83\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \83\ Briggs and Kotchenruther. (August 24, 2022). Review of
Fairbanks Nonattainment Area Precursor Demonstrations for Volatile
Organic Compounds and Nitrogen Oxides in the 2020 State
Implementation Plan Submission. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region 10, Laboratory Services and Applied Science Division.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Importantly, Alaska's precursor analysis in the 189(d) Plan did not
address nonattainment NSR requirements. The State previously made the
determination to regulate all four EPA-identified legal precursors to
PM2.5 in the nonattainment NSR regulations applicable to the
Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area. EPA approved Alaska's
October 25, 2018, SIP revision as meeting the nonattainment NSR
requirements triggered upon reclassification of the area to Serious (84
FR 45419, August 29, 2019).
3. EPA's Evaluation and Proposed Action
    EPA has evaluated the State's precursor demonstration included in
the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan consistent with the PM2.5 SIP
Requirements Rule and the recommendations in the PM2.5
Precursor Guidance. Noting that Alaska did not submit a precursor
determination for SO2 and NH3 emissions,\84\ EPA
agrees that SO2 and NH3 emission sources,
therefore, remain subject to control requirements under subparts 1 and
4 of part D, title I of the Act.
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    \84\ According to Alaska, there is a negligible amount of
NH3 associated with coal-fired boilers, fuel oil-fired
turbines or diesel engine emissions and this amount is not in the
emissions inventory. See State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II,
Chapter III.D.<IP_ADDRESS>.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    EPA proposes to approve the State's demonstration that
NOX and VOC emissions do not contribute significantly to
ambient PM2.5 levels that exceed the 2006 PM2.5
NAAQS in the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area for purposes
other than NSR program requirements. If EPA finalizes this proposed
approval, Alaska would not be required to identify and impose control
measures for NOX and VOC emission sources in Fairbanks other
than for NSR purposes or to impose motor vehicle emission budgets for
NOX and VOC emissions. Our proposed approval of Alaska's
precursor demonstration does not extend to nonattainment NSR
requirements for the area. Alaska previously determined that it was
appropriate to regulate NOX, SO2, VOCs, and
NH3 as precursors to PM2.5 with respect to
nonattainment NSR and submitted rule changes to that effect on October
25, 2018. EPA approved the submitted revised program as meeting
nonattainment NSR requirements triggered upon reclassification of the
Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area to Serious (84 FR 45419,
August 29, 2019).
    Regarding the State's analytical approach, EPA proposes to find
that the State used appropriate methods and data to evaluate
PM2.5 formation in the Fairbanks PM2.5
Nonattainment Area from precursor emissions. Alaska began with
concentration-based analyses for the precursors and proceeded with
sensitivity-based analyses if necessary, which is an acceptable
progression of analyses under the PM2.5 SIP Requirements
Rule. The State utilized the appropriate threshold recommended in EPA's
guidance (1.5 [mu]g/m\3\) in evaluating the significance of precursor
emissions to the formation of 24-hour PM2.5 and utilized
data from all four monitors in the Fairbanks PM2.5
Nonattainment Area (see Table 1 of this document).
    Regarding the results of the State's analysis, the concentration-
based modeling analysis of VOC emissions demonstrates that
anthropogenic VOCs have impacts on PM2.5 concentrations in
the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area that are well below
the 1.5 [mu]g/m\3\ significance threshold. Therefore, we propose to
concur with the State's conclusion that VOCs are not significant for
PM2.5 formation in the Fairbanks PM2.5
Nonattainment Area.
    Further, we propose to find that the weight of evidence presented
in the Fairbanks Serious Plan and Fairbanks 189(d) Plan suggests that
NOX emitted from all sources is an insignificant contributor
to local PM2.5 concentrations. Additional details of EPA's
evaluation of Alaska's precursor PM2.5 analyses are included
in EPA's PM2.5 precursor Technical Support Document in the
docket for this action.\85\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \85\ Briggs and Kotchenruther. (August 24, 2022). Review of
Fairbanks Nonattainment Area Precursor Demonstrations for Volatile
Organic Compounds and Nitrogen Oxides in the 2020 State
Implementation Plan Submission. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region 10, Laboratory Services and Applied Science Division.

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C. Control Strategy

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    CAA section 189(b) and 40 CFR 51.1010(a) contain the control
measure requirements for Serious areas. CAA section 189(d) and 40 CFR
51.1010(c) contain the control measure requirements for Serious areas
that fail to attain. EPA summarizes these statutory and regulatory
provisions in this section.
    Pursuant to CAA section 189(b) and 40 CFR 51.1010(a), the state
must identify, adopt, and implement best available control measures,
including best available control technologies, on sources of direct
PM2.5 emissions and sources of emissions of PM2.5
plan precursors located in any Serious PM2.5 nonattainment
area or portion thereof located within the state. This level of control
stringency is commonly called ``BACM'' and ``BACT.'' The regulation at
40 CFR 51.1010(a) specifies the requirements states must meet to
identify potential control measures and in determining the measures
states must include in the control strategy as BACM or BACT for the
nonattainment area:
    The state must identify all sources of direct PM2.5
emissions and sources of emissions of PM2.5 precursors in
the nonattainment area, in accordance with the emissions inventory
requirements in 40 CFR 51.1008(b).
    The state must identify all potential control measures to reduce
emissions from all sources of direct PM2.5 emissions and
sources of emissions of PM2.5 plan precursors in the
nonattainment area. The state must survey other NAAQS nonattainment
areas in the U.S. and identify any measures for direct PM2.5
and PM2.5 plan precursors not previously identified by the
state during the development of the Moderate area attainment plan for
the area.
    The state must identify, adopt, and implement the best available
control measures for each emission source. However, the state may
demonstrate that any measure identified under 40 CFR 51.1010(a)(2) is
not technologically or economically feasible to implement in whole or
in part by the end of the tenth calendar year following the effective
date of designation of the area and may eliminate such whole or partial
measure from further consideration. Overall, economic feasibility is a
less significant factor in the BACM and BACT determination process.\86\
There are considerations for technological feasibility of a potential
control measure, where a state may consider factors including but not
limited to a source's processes and operating procedures, raw
materials, physical plant layout, and potential environmental impacts
such as increased water pollution, waste disposal, and energy
requirements.\87\ There are also considerations for economic
feasibility of a potential control measure where a state may consider
capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, and cost effectiveness
of the measure.\88\ In assessing whether a control measure or
technology is BACM or BACT, the state must consider emission reduction
measures with higher costs per ton compared to the economic feasibility
criteria applied in their RACM or RACT analysis.\89\ With respect to
determining BACT pursuant to CAA section 189(b), EPA expects that
states use the top-down BACT analysis process used in the Prevention of
Significant Deterioration Program.\90\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \86\ Id.
    \87\ 40 CFR 51.1010(a)(3)(i); 81 FR 58010, 58084.
    \88\ 40 CFR 51.1010(a)(3)(ii); 81 FR 58010, 58085.
    \89\ 81 FR 58010, 58085.
    \90\ Id. 58010, 58080 (``Consistent with past policy, BACT
determinations for PM2.5 NAAQS implementation are to
follow the same process and criteria that are applied to the BACT
determination process for the PSD program.'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Pursuant to CAA section 189(b), a state with a Serious
nonattainment area must include provisions to assure that the
implementation of BACM and BACT level controls on sources of direct
PM2.5 and PM2.5 plan precursors no later than 4
years after the date the area is classified (or reclassified) as a
Serious area.
    In the preamble to the final PM2.5 SIP Requirements
Rule, EPA recommended the following 5-Step BACM/BACT selection process
states should follow to satisfy the analytical and substantive
requirements of 40 CFR 51.1010(a) and CAA section 189(b): \91\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \91\ 81 FR 58010, 58084-85.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Step 1: Develop a comprehensive inventory of sources and source
categories of directly emitted PM2.5 and PM2.5
precursors.
    Step 2: Identify potential control measures for all such sources.
    Step 3: Determine whether an available control measure or
technology is technologically feasible.
    Step 4: Determine whether an available control measure or
technology is economically feasible.
    Step 5: Determine the earliest date by which a control measure or
technology can be implemented in whole or in part in the area.
    EPA's interprets CAA section 189(b) to require the state to
determine what is BACM or BACT for a particular source or source
category.\92\ EPA's longstanding interpretation of the CAA is that BACM
and BACT determinations are to be generally independent of attainment
for purposes of implementing the PM2.5 NAAQS.\93\ EPA
interprets the CAA requirement to impose BACM/BACT level control as
requiring more emphasis on what controls are the best for the relevant
source and whether those controls are feasible rather than on the
attainment needs of the area.\94\ States also may not decline to
evaluate, or to control as necessary, sources or source categories on
the basis that they are de minimis.\95\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \92\ 81 FR 58010, 58081.
    \93\ Addendum to the General Preamble, 59 FR 41998, 42011
(August 16, 1994); 81 FR 58010, 58081.
    \94\ Id.
    \95\ Id. 58010, 58082.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Subsequently, for a state with a Serious PM2.5
nonattainment area that has failed to attain by the applicable
attainment date, the state must submit a revised attainment plan with a
control strategy that demonstrates that each year the area will achieve
at least a 5 percent reduction in emissions of direct PM2.5
or a 5 percent reduction in emissions of a PM2.5 plan
precursor based on the most recent emissions inventory for the area;
and that the area will attain the standard as expeditiously as
practicable consistent with the attainment date requirements under 40
CFR 51.1004(a)(3).\96\ The regulation at 40 CFR 51.1010(c) specifies
the following process the state must follow in determining which
measures must be included in the control strategy:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \96\ CAA section 189(d), 42 U.S.C. 7513a(d), and 40 CFR
51.1010(c).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The state shall identify all sources of direct PM2.5
emissions and sources of emissions of PM2.5 precursors in
the nonattainment area in accordance with the emissions inventory
requirements in 40 CFR 51.1008(b).
    The state shall identify all potential control measures to reduce
emissions from all sources of direct PM2.5 emissions and
sources of emissions of PM2.5 plan precursors in the
nonattainment area. For the sources and source categories represented
in the emission inventory for the nonattainment area, the state shall
identify the most stringent measures for reducing direct
PM2.5 and PM2.5 plan precursors adopted into any
SIP or used in practice to control emissions in any state, as
applicable.
    The state shall also reconsider and reassess any measures
previously

rejected by the state during the development of any Moderate area or
Serious area attainment plan control strategy for the area.
    Similar to the requirements for Serious area plans, the state may
make a demonstration for a 189(d) plan that a measure is not
technologically or economically feasible to implement in whole or in
part within 5 years or such longer period as EPA may determine is
appropriate after EPA's determination that the area failed to attain by
the Serious area attainment date and may eliminate such whole or
partial measure from further consideration. There are considerations
for technological feasibility of a potential control measure, as
described under 40 CFR 51.1010(c)(3)(i), where a state may consider
factors including but not limited to a source's processes and operating
procedures, raw materials, physical plant layout, and potential
environmental impacts such as increased water pollution, waste
disposal, and energy requirements. There are also considerations for
economic feasibility of a potential control measure, under 40 CFR
51.1010(c)(3)(ii), where a state may consider capital costs, operating
and maintenance costs, and cost effectiveness of the measure.
    Unless the state has demonstrated that the measure is not
technologically or economically feasible, the state shall adopt and
implement all potential control measures identified.
    Finally, control measures adopted as part of the state's control
strategy must be permanent, enforceable as a practical matter, and
quantifiable.\97\ In order to be enforceable as a practical matter, the
state must adopt into the SIP not only the control measure or emission
limit itself but also appropriate monitoring, recordkeeping, and
reporting requirements to ensure compliance with the control
measure.\98\ Without appropriate monitoring, recordkeeping, and
reporting requirements, violations of the control measure could go
undetected.\99\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \97\ Control measures must be incorporated by reference into the
regulatory portion of the SIP (52.70(c) and (d)) with appropriate
monitoring and reporting requirements. See CAA section 110(a)(2)(A);
42 U.S.C. 7410(a)(2)(A); 81 FR 58010, at pp. 58046-47; 57 FR 13498,
at pp.13567-68.
    \98\ 81 FR at 58046-47; 57 FR 13498, at p. 13567-68; 67 FR
22168, at p. 22170; 80 FR 33840 at pp. 33843, 33865; Montana Sulphur
& Chemical Co. v. EPA, 666 F.3d 1174, at pp. 1189-1190 (9th Cir.
2012).
    \99\ 67 FR 22168, at p. 22170; Montana Sulphur & Chemical Co. v.
EPA, 666 F.3d 1174, at pp. 1189-1190 (9th Cir. 2012).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Therefore, we will evaluate whether Alaska met the applicable
planning requirements as part of the Fairbanks Serious Plan and
Fairbanks 189(d) Plan.
2. Summary of State's Submission
a. Identification and Adoption of BACM
    We note that Alaska included its initial BACM analysis in the
Fairbanks Serious Plan, submitted in 2019. EPA approved a number of
specific control measures as SIP strengthening but did not approve them
as meeting the BACM/BACT requirement at that time.\100\ Subsequently,
Alaska updated its BACM analysis and resubmitted the updated analysis
in 2020 as part of the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan, to meet Serious area and
189(d) requirements. Even though the State made a SIP submission
intended to meet the requirements of CAA section 189(d), it remains
obligated to meet the BACM/BACT level controls required as part of a
Serious area nonattainment plan for the area. The State did not
withdraw some parts of the Serious area plan with respect to the BACM/
BACT requirements for certain sources. Accordingly, we are evaluating
the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan submission where the State has updated parts
of the BACM analysis, and otherwise evaluating the information the
State initially included in the Fairbanks Serious Plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \100\ 86 FR 52997.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Alaska followed EPA's recommended 5-step process to evaluate BACM-
level controls for sources of PM2.5 and PM2.5
precursors. Alaska also analyzed controls for stationary sources of
PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors to satisfy BACT
requirements. Alaska's process for analyzing BACT-level controls is
discussed separately in this section following the BACM discussion.
    For Step 1, Alaska developed a comprehensive inventory of sources
and source categories of PM2.5 and PM2.5
precursors.\101\ Alaska identified the following source categories in
the Fairbanks nonattainment area: solid fuel burning (outdoor hydronic
heaters, solid fuel-fired heaters, fireplaces, burn barrels and open
burning, and agricultural and forest burns); residential and commercial
fuel oil combustion; transportation (automobiles and heavy-duty
vehicles); and small area/commercial sources (coffee roasters,
charbroilers, incinerators, and used oil burners).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \101\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter
III.D.7.6.6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For Step 2, Alaska identified potential control measures for the
source categories identified in Step 1. First, Alaska reviewed the
control measures that were implemented under the Fairbanks Moderate
Plan and discussed their implementation status.\102\ Alaska then
reconsidered and reassessed the measures that the State rejected as
potential RACM/RACT for the Fairbanks Moderate Plan. As a means of
identifying additional potential BACM/BACT measures for the Fairbanks
area, Alaska surveyed rules and regulations in other states and local
governments and identified measures for reducing direct
PM2.5 and PM2.5 plan precursors adopted into any
nonattainment plan or used in practice to control emissions. Alaska
also created a stakeholder group to identify, evaluate, and recommend
community-based solutions to bring the area into compliance with
Federal air quality standards for PM2.5, see State Air
Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter III.D.7.7, Table 7.7-3 and Table
7.7-4. Overall, Alaska identified 84 control measures for analysis
which are included in State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7. EPA's review of each of the 84 control measures is included
as a Technical Support Document in the docket for this action.\103\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \102\ See State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter
III.D.7.7, Table 7.7-1
    \103\ Jentgen, M. (September 27, 2022). Technical support
document for Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation's
(ADEC) control measure analysis, under 40 CFR 1010(a) and (c). U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10, Air and Radiation
Division.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to controls for NH3 emissions, Alaska
stated that processes that emit NH3 (biomass burning,
mobile, home heating) differ in Fairbanks from those in the rest of the
country, where NH3 from agricultural activities, vehicles,
and other industrial activities form ammonium nitrate. Alaska conducted
a literature review to identify potential controls for the sources of
NH3 in the emissions inventory. Alaska was unable to
identify any potential controls to control NH3 emissions
specifically.\104\ As discussed further in this section, Alaska
included in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan an analysis that demonstrates
that certain measures and technologies designed to reduce emissions of
direct PM2.5 have the co-benefit of reducing emissions of
NH3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \104\ See State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7 at 5354. Alaska also notes that in the Fairbanks
Nonattainment Area, there is only a limited amount of particulate
matter-nitrate measured at the monitors.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For Step 3, Alaska evaluated technical feasibility for the
potential control measures and identified and rejected certain control
measures that the State determined to be technically infeasible.\105\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \105\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7-5355.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For Step 4, Alaska evaluated the economic feasibility of the
control measures that it determined to be technically feasible. Alaska
included these economic evaluations of potential emission control
technologies in the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan.\106\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \106\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7-5440.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For Step 5, Alaska determined whether it could implement a control
measure or technology in whole or in part no later than four years
after reclassification of the area to Serious nonattainment, which
would be June 2021.\107\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \107\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7-5442; State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7-174.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Below is a summary of the regulations adopted by Alaska, organized
by source category, resulting from the BACM analyses included in the
Fairbanks Serious Plan and Fairbanks 189(d) Plan, included in State Air
Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter III.D.7.7 and State Air Quality
Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix III.D.7.7.
i. Solid-Fuel Burning
    The solid-fuel burning source category includes a number of
measures that the State adopted as part of the Fairbanks Serious Plan.
These measures address direct PM2.5 SO2, and
NH3 emissions. As discussed in Step 2, Alaska researched
potential controls measures for NH3 for this source category
and did not identify any ammonia-specific controls.\108\ However,
according to Alaska, some measures identified and adopted by the State
to control emissions of direct PM2.5 have the co-benefit of
reducing emissions of NH3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \108\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7-5353-5354; State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. II,
Chapter III.D.7.10-5--10-7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The owner, vendor, or dealer of a wood-fired heating
device must register the device with Alaska upon the occurrence of
events such as new device sale, home sale, or participating in a
curtailment waiver program. 18 AAC 50.077(h).
     Commercial wood sellers must register with Alaska and
ensure that wood being sold must have a moisture content less than 20
percent. Non-commercial wood sellers are not permitted to sell wet
wood. 18 AAC 50.076(d), (e), (g), (j), (k), and (l). According to the
Fairbanks 189(d) Plan, this measure reduces both direct
PM2.5 emissions as well as SO2 and NH3
emissions.
     Wood-fired heating devices are prohibited in the
nonattainment area unless specific device performance criteria are met,
and outdoor hydronic heaters are not permitted except for pellet-fueled
hydronic heaters that also meet specific performance criteria. New
woodstoves and pellet-fueled woodstoves must be EPA-certified and meet
specific performance criteria. A person may not install a new pellet-
fueled hydronic heaters within 300 feet from the closest property line
or within 660 feet from a school, clinic, hospital, or senior housing
unit. 18 AAC 50.077(a), (b), (c), (d), and (j). According to the
Fairbanks 189(d) Plan, this measure reduces both direct
PM2.5 and NH3 emissions as well as accounting for
SO2 emissions. Alaska acknowledges that there is a resulting
increase in SO2 emissions since measures designed to reduce
direct PM2.5 through removal, curtailment, or replacement of
solid-fuel devices trigger a shift in heating energy to heating oil,
which has greater SO2 emissions compared to wood fuels.\109\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \109\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter
III.D.<IP_ADDRESS>.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Regulations that give Alaska the authority to review
manufacturer test results and place a model on the department's list of
devices, which identifies what devices that are approved for operation
in the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area. 18 AAC 50.077(e).
According to the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan, this measure reduces both
direct PM2.5 emissions as well as SO2 and
NH3 emissions.
     Alaska revised the woodstove curtailment program rules to
lower curtailment thresholds and further restrict curtailment waivers.
Specifically, Alaska revised the requirements for the exemption process
to ensure a waiver is temporary and objective criteria are used to
determine economic hardship. Alaska continues to implement this
program. Fairbanks Emergency Episode Plan, State Air Quality Control
Plan, Vol. II, Chapter III.D.7.12; 18 AAC 50.030(a) and 18 AAC
50.075(e).
     When Alaska issues a curtailment alert, fuel to non-exempt
devices must be withheld, and combustion in these devices--as evidenced
by visible smoke from a chimney--must cease within three hours after
the effective time of a curtailment of operation under an emergency
episode. Solid fuel fired heating device shall be operated so that
visible emissions do not cross property lines.18 AAC 50.075(e)(3) and
(f)(2). Alaska has revised the requirements for curtailment program
advisories and alerts. Now, an advisory is called when PM2.5
concentrations are expected to reach 15 [mu]g/m\3\. A stage 1 alert is
called when PM2.5 concentrations are expected to reach 20
[mu]g/m\3\ (this alert stage allows for specific exemptions). A stage 2
alert is called when PM2.5 concentrations are expected to
reach 30 [mu]g/m\3\. Fairbanks Emergency Episode Plan, State Air
Quality Control Plan, Vol. II, Chapter III.D.7.12. According to the
Fairbanks 189(d) Plan, this measure reduces both direct
PM2.5 and NH3 emissions as well as accounting for
SO2 emissions. Alaska acknowledges that there is a resulting
increase in SO2 emissions since measures designed to reduce
direct PM2.5 through removal, curtailment, or replacement of
solid-fuel devices trigger a shift in heating energy to heating oil,
which has greater SO2 emissions compared to wood fuels.\110\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \110\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. II, Chapter
III.D.<IP_ADDRESS>.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Wood-fired heating devices and wood fired retrofit control
devices must be professionally sized and professionally installed with
confirmation of proper installation and location. 18 AAC 50.077(i).
     New woodstoves cannot serve as the primary or only source
of heat, unless the device is installed in a ``dry cabin'' or existing
rental units that have qualified for No Other Adequate Source of Heat
(NOASH) waivers. 18 AAC 50.077(j). According to the Fairbanks 189(d)
Plan, this measure reduces both direct PM2.5 emissions as
well as SO2 and NH3 emissions.
     Wood-fired device vendors in the nonattainment area are
required to provide curtailment information to the buyer at time of
sale and review proper operating instructions. Wood-fired device
vendors may not advertise devices prohibited for sale within the
nonattainment area. 18 AAC 50.077(l).
     All EPA uncertified devices, non-pellet fueled hydronic
heaters, and coal-fired heating devices must be removed or replaced by
December 31, 2024, or upon sale, lease, or conveyance of an existing
building, whichever is earlier; and these devices that may not be
reinstalled within the area shall be rendered inoperable. 18 AAC
50.077(l) and (m); 18 AAC 50.079(f). According to the Fairbanks 189(d)
Plan, this measure reduces both direct PM2.5 emissions as
well as SO2 and NH3 emissions.
ii. Residential and Commercial Fuel Oil Combustion
    The State developed and adopted these measures to address fuel oil
combustion to reduce SO2 emissions. The State researched
potential controls measures for NH3 for this source category
and did not identify any ammonia-specific controls. Starting September
1, 2022, an individual or

business may only sell or purchase fuel oil containing no more than
1,000 parts per million (ppm) sulfur may be sold for use in fuel oil-
fired equipment, including space heating devices.\111\ As part of its
BACM analysis included in the Fairbanks Serious Plan and updated in the
Fairbanks 189(d) Plan, Alaska evaluated requirements to use ULSD
heating oil in homes.\112\ Alaska determined that the switch to ULSD is
technologically feasible, while the economic analysis showed this
change would result in a cost of $1,819 per ton of SO2
removed. As described in detail in the ``Pollutants Addressed'' section
III.B of this document, SO2 is a significant precursor of
PM2.5 concentrations in the Fairbanks PM2.5
Nonattainment Area. After completing the BACM analysis, Alaska stated
that, while the ULSD measure appears to be technically and economically
feasible, Alaska declined to adopt and implement the measure.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \111\ 18 AAC 50.078(b).
    \112\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter III.D.7.7;
State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. III, Appendix III.D.7.7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Rather than mandate an area-wide fuel switch from Diesel #2 (2,566
ppm) to ULSD (15 ppm), Alaska elected to mandate a fuel switch to
Diesel #1 (1,000 ppm) by September 1, 2022. The State determined that
this initial step down, meant to be more economically feasible for
local residents, reduced the environmental risks associated with the
transport of an increased volume of fuel into the community and still
provides a large sulfur reduction. As support for its rejection of
mandating ULSD as BACM, Alaska cited a University of Alaska Fairbanks/
Alaska cost analysis. This analysis estimated an increase in annual
household heating expenditures of $68.31 (a 3 percent increase) under
the selected measure, while the same cost analysis estimated an
increase between $311.96 and $374.86 (a 13.5 to 16.5 percent increase)
in annual household heating expenditures if Alaska mandated a switch to
ULSD.\113\ Alaska also cited concerns from local residents that the
increased cost in fuel oil could drive more residents to burning less
expensive and higher PM emitting solid fuels.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \113\ Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation. (February
2019). Residential Fuel Expenditure Assessment of a Transition to
Ultra-Low Sulfur and High Sulfur No. 1 Heating Oil for the Fairbanks
PM-2.5 Serious Nonattainment Area. State Air Quality Control Plan,
Vol II, Appendix III.D.7.7, at p. III.D.7.7-226.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Alaska determined that the earliest date to implement the fuel
switch to #1 Diesel was September 1, 2022. Alaska selected this date,
in part, due to comments received during the public comment period.
Also, Alaska stated that there is an inadequate supply of locally
produced Diesel #1 and additional time was required to allow for the
local refinery to modify its processes. Alaska also noted that the
additional time allows residents to budget and prepare for the
increased cost. Alaska received requests through the comment process to
delay the conversion until 2024, but Alaska felt that was too long a
delay and that the approximate two years provided should be sufficient
to allow the local refinery and residents to plan and prepare for the
change in fuel oil.
    Alaska did not reevaluate its rejection of mandating switching to
use of ULSD as part of the Fairbanks 189(d) Plan submission. Alaska
reasoned that circumstances did not change sufficiently between
submission of the Fairbanks Serious Plan to warrant revisiting its
decision. Alaska noted that after implementation of the fuel switch to
Diesel #1 in 2022, Alaska will evaluate whether the fuel switch results
in significant sulfur reduction and whether the additional expense to
homeowners of requiring the use of ULSD heating oil is needed to
further address the air pollution problem.\114\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \114\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. II, Chapter
III.D.7.7, at pp. III.D.7.7-129--III.D.7.7-131.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

iii. Small Commercial Area Sources
    The State evaluated potential measures from these sources to
address direct PM2.5, SO2, and NH3
emissions. After a literature review, Alaska did not identify any
NH3-specific controls for this source category.\115\ Thus,
Alaska identified and evaluated potential measures from these sources
to address direct PM2.5 and SO2. For small area
sources, Alaska identified coffee roasters, charbroilers, incinerators,
and waste oil burners. Initially, as part of the Fairbanks Serious
Plan, Alaska adopted regulations 18 AAC 50.078(c) and (d) that required
information from charbroilers, incinerators, and waste oil burners.
Coffee roasters, per 18 AAC 50.078(d), are required to install a
pollution control device on any unit that emits 24 pounds or more of
particulate matter in a 12-month period and either install controls or
demonstrate technological or economic infeasibility, not later than one
year from effective date of regulation. As an update in the Fairbanks
189(d) Plan, Alaska conducted an economic evaluation of charbroilers
(catalyst oxidizers) and found the cost to be $47,786 per ton of
PM2.5 removed, concluding that installing catalyst oxidizers
on charbroiling facilities is not cost effective. Regarding
incinerators, Alaska states that, in fact, there are no incinerators
within the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area so no
additional controls are required. For used oil burners, Alaska
presented a technological infeasibility determination in the 189(d)
Plan. According to the State, the only acceptable disposal method
available in the nonattainment area is through burning. Shipping the
used oil to the continental United States, another potential disposal
method, would require risky overland transport and cost $2.51 per
gallon to pick up, ship, and dispose. Another factor the State
considered is that restricting burning of used oil would likely lead to
dumping the used oil on land or water. Therefore, the State determined
that this measure is technologically infeasible in the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment Area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \115\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. III, Appendix
III.7.7-5353-5354.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

iv. Mobile Emissions
    The State evaluated measures from mobile sources to address direct
PM2.5, SO2, and NH3 emissions. After a
literature review, Alaska did not identify any NH3-specific
controls for this source category.\116\ Thus, Alaska identified and
evaluated potential measures from these sources to address direct
PM2.5, SO2. Alaska considered mobile sources and
transportation measures as part of the BACM analysis, including high
occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, traffic flow improvement, vehicle
inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, low-emission vehicle (LEV)
program, retrofit diesel program, and van pools.\117\ Alaska noted that
Fairbanks has expanded the availability of plug-ins and required
electrification of certain parking lots. Fairbanks has also expanded
transit service and a commuter van pool program. Alaska also has an
anti-idle program. Alaska concluded that, due to relatively light
traffic congestion in Fairbanks, low population and employment density,
any additional transportation control measures would provide limited
emission reduction benefits.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \116\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. III, Appendix
III.7.7-5353-5354.
    \117\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix
III.D.7.7, Measures 57, 59, and R20.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Summary of Control Measures Selected by Alaska To Meet BACM
Requirements
    Based on the BACM analysis, Alaska identified and implemented
emissions controls, as described in Table 4.

Alaska's identification and adoption of BACT is discussed in the next
section.

 Table 4--Alaska's List of Emission Control Measures With Quantifiable Emission Benefits and Projected Emissions
                                               Reductions in 2024
                                [First year all control measures are implemented]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       2024 emission              Implementation date
       Control measure               State rule         reductions   -------------------------------------------
                                                      (tons per day)       PM2.5                  SO2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Woodstove changeout program..  Targeted Airshed                 0.68            0.01  Ongoing, through 2025.
                                Grant terms and
                                conditions 18 AAC
                                50.077(a), (b), (c),
                                (d), (e), (j), (m).
Solid fuel burning             Fairbanks Emergency              0.68      SO2: -0.23  Ongoing.
 curtailment program (Stage 1   Episode Plan, State
 and Stage 2 Alerts).           Air Quality Control
                                Plan, Vol. II,
                                Chapter III.D.7.12;
                                18 AAC 50.030(a); 18
                                AAC 50.075(e).
Shift from #2 to #1 oil for    18 AAC 50.078(b).....            0.01            1.95  2023.
 residential/commercial space
 heating.
Dry wood requirements for      18 AAC 50.076(d),                0.10           <0.01  2022.
 commercial wood sales.         (e), (g), (j), (k),
                                and (l).
Removal of all uncertified     18 AAC 50.077(l) and             0.16           <0.01  2024.
 device and cordwood outdoor    (m).
 hydronic heaters.
New wood-fired device          18 AAC 50.077(c).....            0.39            0.01  2020.
 requirements (i.e., 2.0 g/
 hr).
Removal of coal heaters......  18 AAC 50.079(f).....            0.02            0.02  2024.
Wood-fired devices may not be  18 AAC 50.077(j).....            0.35           -0.01  2020.
 primary or only heating
 source.
NOASH/exemption requirements.  Fairbanks Emergency             <0.01           <0.01  2020.
                                Episode Plan, State
                                Air Quality Control
                                Plan, Vol. II,
                                Chapter III.D.7.12;
                                18 AAC 50.077(g).
Combined BACM emissions        .....................            2.39            1.74  ..........................
 reductions.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II, Chapter III.D.7.7, Tables 7.7-28 and 7.7-29.

c. Alaska's Identification and Adoption of BACT
    Alaska noted that large stationary sources are a subgroup of
emissions sources that have specific requirements in the BACM analysis.
Alaska evaluated all stationary sources with potential to emit (PTE)
greater than 70 tons per year (tpy) of PM2.5 or
PM2.5 precursors for potential BACT-level controls.
According to Alaska, sources with emissions below the 70 tpy threshold
only require evaluation for BACM. Alaska states that this emissions
threshold is in place to distinguish between the planning requirements
for certain sources emitting above and below this threshold and is
consistent with an emissions threshold in the 2016 PM2.5
Implementation Rule.\118\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \118\ We note that Alaska applied this threshold to emissions
sources at the GVEA Zehnder facility.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We note that EPA disagrees with this assessment. All emissions
sources identified in the emissions inventory are subject to BACM
requirements, and the BACT evaluation process is merely a sub-set of
BACM that includes a process to evaluate emissions control technologies
that are the best available control measures for the emission source
category. Accordingly, all sources of direct PM2.5 and
PM2.5 precursors are subject to BACM and BACT requirements
regardless of PTE. There is no PTE threshold below which BACT
requirements do not apply. The 70 tons per year PTE threshold cited by
Alaska only has relevance in determining whether a new stationary
source proposed to be constructed in a nonattainment area meets the
definition of a major stationary source pursuant to the nonattainment
new source review provisions.\119\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \119\ 40 CFR 51.165(a)(1)(iv)(A)(1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Alaska identified five stationary sources that it evaluated for
potential BACT controls, see State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol II,
Chapter III.D.7, section 7.7.8. Table 5 includes the annual emissions
(tons/year) for each of the facilities:

                           Table 5--Annual Emissions (Tons/Year), by Facility, in 2019
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         Facility                            PM2.5       SO2        NOX        VOC        NH3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chena Power Plant........................................      55.63     507.39     623.70       1.96       0.06
Fort Wainwright..........................................      66.58     481.13     485.30       4.91       0.06
UAF Campus Power Plant...................................       9.08     154.52     246.51       1.56  .........
GVEA Zehnder.............................................       1.04      27.98      76.32       0.04       0.50
GVEA North Pole..........................................      26.45     247.31   1,046.50       0.90      14.98
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol III, Appendix III.D.7.7-6-9-10-2020 fairbanks-5-percent-plan-sip-
  sector-emission-summary-calculation-spreadsheet.

    Below is a summary of Alaska's BACT analysis for each source. Each
source is comprised of multiple emission units, and the State performed
the BACT analysis for each emission unit. After a literature review,
Alaska did not identify any NH3-specific controls for this
source category.\120\ Thus, Alaska identified and evaluated potential
measures from these sources to address direct PM2.5 and
SO2 emissions. Alaska's BACT determinations are evaluated by
EPA on an independent basis. Details of EPA's analysis of Alaska's BACT
evaluation and determination are included as BACT

Technical Support Documents in the docket for this action.\121\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \120\ State Air Quality Control Plan, Vol. III, Appendix
III.7.7-5353-5354.
    \121\ See Hedgpeth and Sorrels. (August 24, 2022). Review of
Best Available Control Technology analyses submitted for the Aurora
Energy, LLC Chena Power Plant as part of the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment SIP. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region 10, Laboratory Services and Applied Science Division;
Hedgpeth, Z. (August 24, 2022). Review of Best Available Control
Technology analyses submitted for Fort Wainwright-US Army Garrison
Alaska (FWA) and Doyon Utilities, LLC (DU) as part of the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment SIP. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region 10, Laboratory Services and Applied Science Division;
Hedgpeth and Sorrels. (August 24, 2022). Review of Best Available
Control Technology analyses submitted for the University of Alaska,
Fairbanks as part of the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment
SIP. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10, Laboratory
Services and Applied Science Division; Hedgpeth, Z. (August 24,
2022). Review of Best Available Control Technology analyses
submitted for the Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA) Zehnder
and North Pole Power Plants as part of the Fairbanks
PM2.5 Nonattainment SIP. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region 10, Laboratory Services and Applied Science Division.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

i. Chena Power Plant
    Chena Power Plant is an existing stationary source owned and
operated by Aurora Energy, LLC, which consists of four existing coal-
fired boilers: three 76 million British Thermal Units (MMBtu)/hour
overfeed traveling grate stoker type boilers and one 269 MMBtu/hr
spreader-stoker type boiler that burn coal to produce steam for heating
and power (497 MMBtu/hr combined).
    The State's BACT Determination for the Chena Power Plant evaluated
potential controls to reduce NOX, PM2.5, and
SO2 emissions from its four coal-fired boilers.\122\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \122\ Alaska evaluated potential NOX controls for
each emission unit, but because Alaska determined and EPA is
proposing to approve in this proposed action that NOX
emissions are not significant for PM2.5 formation in the
Fairbanks nonattainment area, ADEC does not plan to require
implementation of BACT for NOX. Thus, EPA is not
discussing ADEC's BACT analysis for NOX here.

                 Table 6--Chena Power Plant BACT Summary
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Chena Power Plant, Aurora Energy, LLC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Alaska's BACT determination, by source
          Pollutant                             category
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Coal-fired boilers (EUs 4-7)--3 boilers rated 76 MMBtu per hour and 1
                     boiler rated 269 MMBtu per hour
------------------------------------------------------------------------