Feedback from numerous points in the supply chain has indicated that sales of alternative refrigerants have increased dramatically since 2011. As the phaseout progresses, the percentage of HCFC-22 servicing need met by retrofit refrigerants is expected to rise, thereby further reducing the need for HCFC-22 and adding to the potential inventory of recovered refrigerant.
Air-Conditioning Industry
HFC-134a, R-410A, and R-407C are replacing HCFC-22 in new stationary and mobile AC equipment. Some mobile AC equipment has been using alternatives since the early 1990s, with some buses and trains using HFC-134a, and some heavy rail cars using R-407C (WMATA 2005; Amtrak 2005; Motorcoach Training 2005; Greyhound 2005; Carrier Corporation 2005b). Stationary AC equipment using R-410A has been commercially available since 1996 (HARDI 2004), and is the standard refrigerant in all systems installed after 2009 in the U.S. residential market (J.P. Morgan 2011). Manufacturers of R-410A saw significant growth in 2010 driven by the conversion to R-410A from HCFC-22 in the U.S. Between 2009 and 2010, R-410A residential AC units as a percentage of all condensing unit shipments rose from 55% to 90% due to the phaseout of HCFC-22 (J.P. Morgan 2011).

Since January 1, 2010, new appliances charged with HCFC-22 could no longer be sold on the market; however, dry-shipped replacement parts (e.g., condensing units, compressors) are still allowed. Consumers have the option of selecting to repair existing HCFC-22 units rather than switching to alternatives. A replacement compressor would cost $1,800 to $2,000, approximately 40 percent of the cost of an R-410A system replacement (J.P. Morgan 2011). This analysis does not take into account the possibility that repairs may extend the lifetime of existing HCFC-22 appliances but the impact of extended equipment lifetime due to dry-shipped replacement parts is considered in Appendix D. EPA's assumption that residential AC typically lasts for 15 years is consistent with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s estimates for the average life of a system, which is estimated at 15-20 years (DOE 2012).
Refrigeration Industry
Advanced refrigeration technologies (e.g., distributed systems and secondary loop systems) represent an estimated 40% of new equipment sales and are generally charged with HFC refrigerants (Hill Phoenix 2009; Hussmann 2009). The current trend in the supermarket industry is to use HFC refrigerant blends, particularly R-407A. There has been a shift from R-404A towards blends with lower GWPs, such as R-407A and R-407C (Verisae 2009). Carbon dioxide has been used as a secondary fluid in supermarkets since 2006 and more recently as a primary refrigerant. It is anticipated that the use of carbon dioxide as a primary refrigerant will become increasingly common in commercial and industrial applications (Shecco 2012).

Based on an industry survey, HCFC-22 accounts for approximately 40% of the refrigerants (by weight) still used by supermarkets (Garry 2012). Of the 2,445 retailers surveyed, most did not plan to fully replace HCFC-22 until 2015 or 2020 (Garry 2012).
Recovery and Reuse Practices
As indicated in the total projected servicing need scenarios presented in Section 4.4, recovered HCFC-22 and HCFC-123 that is recycled, inventoried, or reclaimed will likely need to increase to satisfy future servicing needs that cannot be met through virgin supplies. Key findings from this analysis include:
HCFC-22
* In 2015, the amount of recovered HCFC-22 refrigerant is projected to range from 21,300 to 27,200 metric tons, depending on the percentage of total available refrigerant from retired or converted equipment that is recovered and reused.
* Since virgin production of HCFC-22 for domestic use stops in 2020, recovery would have to be at approximately the baseline recovery scenario rate (51 percent) or higher to meet estimated servicing need (assuming no existing inventory, and not considering the assumptions in the sensitivity analyses).
* In 2025, the availability of recovered HCFC-22 refrigerant under the baseline and higher recovery scenarios would provide adequate supplies to meet estimated servicing need. In the lower recovery scenario, servicing need could potentially be met if surplus HCFC-22 from previous years is carried over.
HCFC-123
* In 2015, the amount of recovered HCFC-123 refrigerant is projected to be 330 metric tons, based on a baseline refrigerant recovery rate of 90 percent.
* Starting in 2020, recovered HCFC-123 refrigerant is expected to meet estimated servicing need.
HCFC-124
* In 2015, the amount of recovered HCFC-124 refrigerant is projected to be less than 1 metric ton.
   By 2020, the availability of recovered HCFC-124 refrigerant would provide adequate supplies to meet estimated servicing need.

Although there is the potential for supply tightness the closer it gets to 2020, proper maintenance practices during the lifetime of equipment, recovery practices at the time of equipment disposal or decommissioning, and the full penetration of reclaim and reuse practices can greatly reduce the likelihood of future shortfalls.

The use of recovery procedures during the lifetime of equipment and at the time of decommissioning reduces potential emissions of refrigerant and increases the available supply of refrigerant. End-users of AC and refrigeration equipment must have equipment installed by trained technicians. They must also have their equipment properly maintained to reduce incidences of major leaks. Service technicians must take efforts to isolate components or recover refrigerants prior to service as venting (releasing) HCFC (and CFC and HFC) refrigerant when making repairs is illegal. Service practices that involve locating and repairing leaks in lieu of "topping off" leaking systems further ensure future supplies of HCFC refrigerant. As with servicing procedures, the venting of refrigerant during decommissioning is illegal. The AC and refrigeration community, including end-users, service technicians, and all affected stakeholders, must position itself for approaching phaseouts of HCFCs by using proper recovery techniques and complying with regulations that are in place to promote the growth of HCFC recovery and reuse.
Recycling, Reuse, and Managing Inventory
With proper storage tanks, a reserve of recovered HCFC-22 can be collected, stored, and accessed to service equipment owned by the same company years later, when HCFC-22 is expected to be less affordable and less available. A report released in 1995 by the Food Marketing Institute (FMI) included a survey issued to supermarket operators on the use of refrigerant management plans (RMPs) as a strategy to ensure an adequate supply of CFC refrigerants for use after the December 31, 1995, CFC production phaseout. Of those surveyed, 52 percent were banking recovered CFC refrigerant, an activity adopted primarily by store operators with 11 or more stores (FMI 1995).

Industry sources suggest that recovery and direct reuse is a widespread practice amongst supermarkets in large retail food equipment; however, the extent can vary significantly between chains, depending largely on the extent to which supermarkets are converting their HCFC-22 equipment to alternatives (ICF 2011). Some supermarkets who have converted a substantial proportion of their HCFC-22 equipment indicated that they have sufficient recovered HCFC-22 in-stock for servicing such that they do not anticipate a need to purchase any more virgin material in the future (ICF 2011).

Feedback from industry sources indicates there was a significant amount of HCFC-22 in the supply chain leading into 2012 (ICF 2011). Additionally, EPA collected data on HCFC-22 inventory from nine companies in early fall, 2013 using Clean Air Act section 114 authority. Additional discussion of HCFC-22 inventory levels is included in Appendix E. Some of the pre-2012 inventory was consumed in 2012 to meet servicing needs but both anecdotal feedback and inventory data continue to indicate that there is a significant amount of inventory that can help meet servicing need in 2015 and beyond.
HCFC-22 Economics
Another factor that affects the projections of HCFC-22 servicing supply and need is the cost of virgin and reclaimed HCFC-22. Prior to 2012, the price of HCFC-22 remained low. The relatively low cost of virgin HCFC-22 in the market, and the costs associated with sending recovered HCFC-22 to reclaimers, decreased the incentives to properly manage HCFC-22 in existing systems (e.g., fixing leaks, recovering and recycling refrigerant, etc.).

As the allowed production and import of virgin HCFC-22 decreased in 2012 and 2013, HCFC-22 price increased. As a result, interest in and demand for recovery and reuse, reclamation, and retrofit options increased significantly. As the supply of virgin HCFC-22 continues to decrease, demand for recovered and reclaimed refrigerant and demand for HCFC-22 alternatives is expected to increase. All of these factors could affect realized lifetimes for equipment, which could decrease future servicing need. A sensitivity analysis shows that shortening realized lifetimes by five years in 20 percent of equipment could result in a 9 to 14 percent decrease in HCFC-22 service need between 2015 and 2025. Additional details can be found in Appendix D.
Increasing Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (SEER)
In 2001, the DOE set a stricter seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) standard for residential unitary ACs and heat pumps. The minimum efficiency standard of residential unitary ACs and heat pumps was raised by 30 percent to a 13 SEER for all such units manufactured for sale on or after January 23, 2006 (DOE 2001; DOE 2004). These increased SEER requirements are reflected in the Vintaging Model. The projections provided in this analysis do not consider the need for HCFC-22 to service higher efficiency residential AC equipment installed after 2015 because all new HCFC-22 systems were banned starting in 2010 (see Appendix A for more details).

The Vintaging Model currently assumes that the 13 SEER vintage of HCFC-22 residential unitary AC equipment uses a charge size of approximately 4.76 kg. Appendix D presents an analysis that examines the potential effects on service need of a lower charge size of 4 kg for HCFC-22 13 SEER residential unitary AC equipment. This change results in a 2 to 7 percent decrease in total HCFC-22 service need across all refrigeration and AC end-uses between 2015 and 2023. As modeled, all HCFC-22 residential unitary AC equipment has reached end-of-life by 2023, so there is no longer servicing need for that end-use after 2023.
Lower Loss Rates
EPA's GreenChill program is committed to reducing refrigerant emissions by lowering equipment leak rates or eliminating leaks entirely within the commercial refrigeration industry. Approximately 20 percent of U.S. supermarkets participate in GreenChill. Increased participation in this program can lower the industry-wide leak rate for HCFC-22 equipment and therefore further decrease HCFC-22 servicing need. Since 2008, the average commercial refrigeration emissions rate across GreenChill partners has been 13 percent, which is nearly half the national average of 25 percent. In addition, the ban on HCFC-22 in new equipment manufactured after 2010 (and the resultant increase in price for virgin and reclaimed HCFC-22) may also prompt service technicians to be more careful during servicing and encourage end-users to have leaks fixed more frequently, particularly for larger equipment, where the financial benefits of leak-tightness are more apparent.

Both of these factors can affect projections of future servicing needs for HCFC-22, particularly in residential unitary AC, large retail food, medium retail food, and cold storage. Reducing HCFC-22 loss rates was found to result in a 10 to 23 percent reduction in HCFC-22 servicing needs. Details on this sensitivity analysis are presented in Appendix D.

Conclusion
On January 1, 2015, production, import, introduction into interstate commerce and use of HCFCs are banned except for on-going refrigeration and AC service needs for equipment manufactured on or before December 31, 2019 and for nonresidential fire suppression. To support development of the allocation levels that will allow the U.S. to comply with the Montreal Protocol's 2015 and 2020 reduction steps, this report provides projections on the quantity of HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 needed for (a) servicing AC and refrigeration equipment manufactured before January 1, 2020; (b) charging new AC and refrigeration equipment between 2015 and 2020 (HCFC-123 only); and (c) nonresidential fire suppression applications before January 1, 2020.

Under the Baseline and Higher Recovery scenarios developed in this analysis, future HCFC servicing needs can be met by using recovered refrigerant and an amount of virgin refrigerant allowable under the United States' Montreal Protocol cap. If recovery and reuse is lower than expected (i.e., the lower recovery rate scenario), the refrigeration and AC industry could face the potential risk of a shortage of HCFC-22 starting in 2015, however, this is unlikely. Alternatively, if leak rates, practiced equipment lifetimes, and charge sizes are lower than what the Vintaging Model currently assumes -- as considered in the sensitivity analysis in Appendix D -- servicing need, as well as the need for virgin supply, could be significantly lower than what is presented below.

The tables below summarize total projected HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 servicing need in 2015, 2020, and 2025 compared to the ODP-weighted HCFC consumption cap. The percentage shown in parentheses is the percent of servicing need met by either recovered or virgin HCFCs. Concluding points are also provided on the implications of the three recovery and reuse scenarios.

   *    In 2015, the projected servicing need for HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 is equal to 2,580 ODP-weighted MT. As shown in Table 5-1, under a higher recovery scenario, 58 percent of this need could be met with recovered refrigerant; and 45 percent of servicing need can be met at the baseline recovery rate. Only 31 percent of the total servicing need can be met under the lower recovery rate scenario, leading to a potential shortage of at least 250 ODP-weighted metric tons in 2015.

Table 5-1: Comparison of HCFC Servicing and New Equipment Servicing Need Projections (ODP-Weighted Metric Tons) and Necessary Supply Projections by Source, 2015
2015
                             Lower Recovery Rate
                            Baseline Recovery Rate
                             Higher Recovery Rate
Cap[a]
                                     1,524
Servicing Need
                                     2,580
Necessary Supply

  Recovered
                                   812 (31%)
                                  1,177 (46%)
                                  1,502 (58%)
  Virgin
                                  1,524 (59%)
                                  1,402 (54%)
                                  1,078 (42%)
Shortfall
                                   244 (10%)
                                    0 (0%)
                                    0 (0%)
        [a]HCFC consumption cap expressed in ODP-weighted metric tons.
              Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA (2012).

* In 2020, the HCFC consumption cap is reduced to 0.5 percent of the baseline, or 76.2 ODP-weighted metric tons. Projected servicing need for 2020 is 1,250 ODP-weighted MT. As shown in Table 5-2 under the baseline and higher recovery scenarios, sufficient supplies of recovered material will be available to meet servicing needs, and no shortage is expected. For the lower recovery scenario, 73 percent of the total servicing need can be met by recovered and reused material, resulting in a shortage of at least 272 ODP-weighted metric tons. EPA regulations prohibit consumption of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b in 2020, but allow consumption of HCFC-123 and HCFC-124. While this analysis projects that all servicing need for HCFC-123 can be met from recovered supplies, it is worthwhile to note that the total projected HCFC-123 servicing need of 580 metric tons (11.6 ODP-Tons) is 15% of the total HCFC cap.

   Table 5-2: Comparison of HCFC Servicing Need Projections (ODP-Weighted Metric Tons)
and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (ODP-Weighted Metric Tons and Percent), 2020
2020
                              Lower Recovery Rate
                            Baseline Recovery Rate
                             Higher Recovery Rate
Cap[a]
                                     76.2
Servicing Need
                                     1,250
Necessary Supply

  Recovered
                                   910 (73%)
                                 1,289 (100%)
                                 1,673 (100%)
  Virgin
                                   76.2 (6%)
                                    0 (0%)
                                    0 (0%)
Shortfall
                                   264 (21%)
                                    0 (0%)
                                    0 (0%)
              [a]HCFC consumption cap expressed in ODP-weighted metric tons.
              Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2012.

   *    In 2025, HCFC servicing need is projected at 314 ODP-weighted MT (Table 5-3). There is no projected shortfall in any of the scenarios considered. For the lower recovery scenario, recovered and reused supplies can meet 90% of the total servicing need. The remaining need can be met with virgin materials without exceeding the consumption cap. No virgin material is expected to be needed for the baseline and higher recovery scenarios. While the Clean Air Act allows consumption of HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 until 2030, EPA has not yet proposed allowances for the 2020-2029 timeframe. While this analysis projects that all servicing need for HCFC-123 can be met from recovered supplies, it is worthwhile to note that the total projected HCFC-123 servicing need of 470 metric tons (9.4 ODP-Tons) is 12% of the total HCFC cap.

Table 5-3: Comparison of HCFC Servicing Need Projections (ODP-Weighted Metric Tons)
and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (ODP-Weighted Metric Tons and Percent), 2025
2025
                              Lower Recovery Rate
                            Baseline Recovery Rate
                             Higher Recovery Rate
Cap[a]
                                     76.2
Servicing Need
                                      314
Necessary Supply

  Recovered
                                   284 (90%)
                                  616 (100%)
                                  509 (100%)
  Virgin
                                   30 (10%)
                                    0 (0%)
                                    0 (0%)
Shortfall
                                    0 (0%)
                                    0 (0%)
                                    0 (0%)
        [a]HCFC consumption cap expressed in ODP-weighted metric tons to represent allocations of HCFC-22 and HCFC-123.
        Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2012.

   *    Although no servicing need for HCFC-142b is projected from 2015 to 2020, stakeholder feedback and industry data from California indicate that there is still equipment using HCFC-142b and that there will be continued, but limited, refrigerant servicing need beyond 2015.

Projections of future HCFC supply and servicing need vary depending on various market trends as addressed in this report. More rapid equipment transitions, reductions in loss rates through careful servicing and programs such as GreenChill, and lower charge sizes in more efficient equipment may result in lower service need, and consequently lower need for virgin supply. The projections in this report provide only some of the information necessary for taking initial steps in determining post-2015 servicing needs for HCFC-22, HCFC-123, HCFC-124, and HCFC-142b equipment.

 Appendix A: Methodology Used to Calculate Projected Servicing Needs
This appendix outlines the methodology used to calculate the projected servicing and new chemical need of AC, refrigeration, and fire suppression equipment using HCFC-22, HCFC-123 and HCFC-124. This appendix contains two sections:
   * Section A.1 provides an overview of EPA's Vintaging Model (EPA 2012), which was used to establish the estimates of units of equipment using HCFC-22 and HCFC-124 for servicing need beyond 2015 and HCFC-123 for new equipment and servicing beyond 2015.
   * Section A.2 discusses the limitations to the servicing projections presented in this report.
    A.1 EPA's Vintaging Model
          Box A-1: Developing and Maintaining EPA's Vintaging Model

The Vintaging Model synthesizes data from a variety of sources, including:
   *      EPA's ODS Tracking System and submissions to the SNAP program, both maintained by the U.S. EPA Stratospheric Protection Division;
   *      Published literature from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Technical Options Committees, the Alternative Fluorocarbons Environmental Acceptability Study (AFEAS), and those provided in industry-related and EPA conference proceedings; and
   *      Numerous representatives at companies and trade associations, such as the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, the Air-Conditioning Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM), and the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.

In some instances the unpublished information that EPA uses in the model is classified as Confidential Business Information (CBI). The annual emissions inventories of chemicals are aggregated in such a way that CBI cannot be inferred.

The Vintaging Model is continually updated to improve assumptions and modeling techniques and refine inputs based on information received from these sources. EPA shares the revised assumptions and results of model improvements with industry through publications such as this one as well as through presentations, such as those given at the April 2007 Spring Meetings of AHRI.

Since 2009, the refrigeration and air-conditioning sectors of the Vintaging Model have been updated multiple times. In 2012, an update to the large, medium, and small retail food end-uses had an impact on the projected service, leak, and new chemical demand, as well as disposal recovery. In addition, changes to the small commercial and residential unitary AC end-uses also affected the service demand of HCFC-22.
EPA's Vintaging Model was developed as a tool for estimating the annual chemical emissions from industrial sectors that have historically used ODS in their products. Emissions are estimated from the following end-use sectors: 1) Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration; 2) Foams; 3) Aerosols; 4) Solvents; 5) Fire-Extinguishing; and 6) Sterilants. Within these sectors, there are over 60 independently modeled end-uses. The model requires information on the market growth for each of the end-uses, as well as a history and projection of the market transition from ODS to alternatives. As ODS are phased out, a percentage of the market share originally filled by the ODS is allocated to substitutes.

The model, named for its method of tracking the emissions of annual "vintages" of new equipment that enter into service, is a "bottom-up" model. This means it models the consumption of controlled ozone-depleting substances and their substitutes based on:
   1)      Estimates of the quantity of equipment or products sold, serviced, and retired or retrofitted each year, and
   2)      The quantity of the chemical required to manufacture and/or maintain the equipment.

The model makes use of this market information to build an inventory of in-use stocks of equipment and quantities of ODS/ODS substitutes in each of the end-uses.

Emissions are estimated by applying annual leak rates, service emission rates, and disposal emission rates to consumption data for each vintage of equipment. Emissions from AC and refrigeration equipment are split into two categories: emissions during equipment lifetime and disposal emissions. The first category includes the amount of chemical leaked during equipment operation and the amount of chemical emitted during service. Consumption required to service or refill equipment is driven by the need to replace such losses, and therefore, emissions during the lifetime of equipment are equal to consumption for servicing (since it is assumed that all leaked refrigerant is eventually replaced). Emissions, and therefore, consumption from leakage and servicing can be expressed as follows:

     Esj = (la + ls) x Σ Qcj-i+1 for i=1-->k
     Where:
     Es = 	Emissions from Equipment Serviced. Emissions in year j from normal leakage and servicing of equipment.
     la = 	Annual Leak Rate. Average annual leak rate during normal equipment operation (expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge).
     ls = 	Service Leak Rate. Average leakage during equipment servicing (expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge).
     Qc = 	Quantity of Chemical in New Equipment. Total amount of a specific chemical used to charge new equipment in a given year by weight.
     i = 	Counter, runs from 1 to lifetime (k).
     j = 	Year of emission.
     k = 	Lifetime. The average lifetime of the equipment.

The assumptions used in this calculation range by equipment, refrigerant, and vintage, reflecting that as new technologies replace older ones, improvements in their leak, service, and disposal emission rates are assumed to occur.

For the purpose of this analysis, the following data from EPA's Vintaging Model were compiled and summarized for the AC and refrigeration sector:
   1) Consumption for Servicing, which is equal to the need to service (i.e., refill) existing equipment. These data are back-calculated using service and leak emissions because the quantity emitted during the lifetime of equipment drives the need to replace such losses. These estimates are further distinguished between consumption of virgin and recycled/reclaimed chemical. The model assumes that a certain percentage of refrigerant, which varies by end-use, is recovered from discarded equipment. The model then assumes a "best-case" scenario in which all recovered and re-usable refrigerant re-enters the market. See Section A.2 for further discussion on this "recovery pool."
   2) Need for New Equipment, which is equal to the amount of chemical needed to fill new equipment. This estimate is further distinguished between consumption of virgin and recycled/reclaimed chemical.
   2)  Number of Units of Equipment, which is equal to, for "year X"', the number of units existing in "year X-1" plus the number of new units produced in "year X" minus the number of units disposed in "year X".
      For example:
            No. of Units in 1999 = No. of Units in 1998 + New Units in 1999  -  Units Disposed in 1999

Estimates from EPA's Vintaging Model are often cross-checked with actual historical data from EPA's ODS Tracking System, which tracks actual ODS production and consumption (including import and export) by U.S. companies. The Model's virgin manufacture parameter is considered to be most comparable to the Montreal Protocol's definition of consumption (i.e., production plus imports minus exports). In EPA's Vintaging Model, the Virgin Manufacture parameter is calculated to be any need for consumption (either for new equipment or servicing) that cannot be met through recycled or recovered material; no distinction is made in the Vintaging Model between whether that need is met through domestic manufacturing or imports. As shown in Figure A-1, estimates from the model generally align to actual consumption from 1993 to 2011.

  Figure A-1: Comparison of EPA's Vintaging Model Estimates for Virgin Manufacture
             and ODS Tracking System Data for HCFC-22 Consumption

Table A-1 presents the input assumptions used to develop the projections in this report. The loss rates represent the percent of the total charge that leaks in a given year plus the amount, on an annual basis, emitted at service, expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge. Because the amount lost from leaks and servicing is annualized, equipment is assumed to reach the end of its lifetime with a full charge. EPA's Vintaging Model then applies a "recovery rate," which refers to the percent of total charge of the equipment that is recovered and reused at the time of disposal. These recovery rates represent averages, intended to capture the range of possible practices occurring at disposal.
Growth rate assumptions are also provided in Table A-1. The growth rates refer to the growth of the equipment market for each end-use as a whole and are not specific to the refrigerant. When the transition to different equipment and different refrigerants occur, the input assumptions are adjusted to account for these changes.
               Table A-1: Input Assumptions, Years 2015 to 2025
                              Current Refrigerant
                              Equipment Type and
                           Original ODS Refrigerant
                                Charge Size[a]
                                   Loss Rate
                                Growth Rate[b]
                                 Recovery Rate
                               Lifetime (Years)
                               Manufactured From
                                 AC Equipment

                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Residential Unitary A/C
                                       3
                                      14%
                                     0.8%
                                      35%
                                      15
                                   1992-2005
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Residential Unitary A/C
                                       5
                                      14%
                                     0.8%
                                      35%
                                      15
                                   2006-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Small Commercial Unitary AC
                                       8
                                      11%
                                     0.8%
                                      40%
                                      15
                                   1992-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Large Commercial Unitary AC
                                      15
                                      10%
                                     0.8%
                                      40%
                                      15
                                   1992-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps
                                       4
                                      5%
                                     0.8%
                                      57%
                                      20
                                   1992-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Dehumidifiers
                                       0
                                      1%
                                     0.2%
                                      50%
                                      11
                                   1985-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Packaged Terminal Units
                                       1
                                      5%
                                     0.8%
                                      35%
                                      12
                                   1992-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Window Units
                                       1
                                      1%
                                     5.0%
                                      50%
                                      12
                                   1985-2009
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 School & Tour Buses
                                       5
                                      10%
                                     2.6%
                                      50%
                                      12
                                   1994-2006
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Transit Buses
                                       8
                                      44%
                                     2.6%
                                      50%
                                      12
                                   1985-2008
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-11 Centrifugal Chillers
                                      700
                                      14%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                   1991-1995
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-11 Centrifugal Chillers
                                      700
                                      5%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                   1996-2009
                                   HCFC-123
CFC-11 Centrifugal Chillers
                                      440
                                      1%
                                     0.5%
                                      90%
                                      25
                                 1993-Present
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 Centrifugal Chillers
                                      721
                                      8%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      27
                                   1991-1995
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 Centrifugal Chillers
                                      721
                                      5%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      27
                                   1996-2009
                                   HCFC-123
CFC-12 Centrifugal Chillers
                                      453
                                      1%
                                     0.5%
                                      90%
                                      27
                                 1993-Present
                                    HCFC-22
Reciprocating Chillers
                                      230
                                      6%
                                     0.2%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1993-1998
                                    HCFC-22
Reciprocating Chillers
                                      230
                                      1%
                                     0.2%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1999-2009
                                    HCFC-22
Screw Chillers
                                      300
                                      1%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1996-2009
                                    HCFC-22
Scroll Chillers
                                      240
                                      1%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1996-2009
                                    HCFC-22
R-500 Chillers
                                      926
                                      11%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      27
                                   1991-1995
                                    HCFC-22
R-500 Chillers
                                      926
                                      5%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      27
                                   1996-2009
                                   HCFC-123
R-500 Chillers
                                      582
                                      1%
                                     0.5%
                                      90%
                                      27
                                 1993-Present
                            Refrigeration Equipment

                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 Cold Storage
                                   <0.01
                                      20%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1990-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Cold Storage
                                   <0.01
                                      22%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1985-1992
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Cold Storage
                                   <0.01
                                      20%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1992-2009
                                     R-502
R-502 Cold Storage
                                   <0.01
                                      25%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1985-1995
                                    HCFC-22
R-502 Cold Storage
                                   <0.01
                                      20%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1990-2009
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 Large Retail Food
                                     1,800
                                      30%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                   1991-1999
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 Large Retail Food
                                     1,360
                                      30%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                   2000-2009
                                    HCFC-22
R-502 Large Retail Food
                                     1,800
                                      30%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                   1990-1999
                                    HCFC-22
R-502 Large Retail Food
                                     1,800
                                      30%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                   1995-1999
                                    HCFC-22
R-502 Large Retail Food
                                     1,360
                                      30%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                   2000-2009
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Large Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
                                      25
                                      15%
                                     0.9%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1985-2009
                                    R-402A
HCFC-22 Large Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
                                      25
                                      15%
                                     0.9%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1995-2005
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Small Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
                                       3
                                      8%
                                     0.9%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1985-2009
                                    R-402A
HCFC-22 Small Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
                                       3
                                      8%
                                     0.9%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1995-2005
                                    R-401A
HCFC-22 Small Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
                                       3
                                      8%
                                     0.9%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                   1995-2005
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 Small Retail Food
                                       1
                                      8%
                                     0.8%
                                      35%
                                      20
                                   1990-2008
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      952
                                      10%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                   1991-2009
                                   HCFC-123
CFC-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      598
                                      5%
                                     2.5%
                                      90%
                                      25
                                   1992-2004
                                   HCFC-123
CFC-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      598
                                      5%
                                     2.5%
                                      90%
                                      25
                                 2005-Present
                                    HCFC-22
CFC-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      992
                                      10%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                   1991-2009
                                   HCFC-123
CFC-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      623
                                      5%
                                     2.5%
                                      90%
                                      25
                                   1992-2004
                                   HCFC-123
CFC-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      623
                                      4%
                                     2.5%
                                      90%
                                      25
                                 2005-Present
                                    R-401A
CFC-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      850
                                      5%
                                     2.5%
                                      90%
                                      25
                                   1995-1999
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                     9,100
                                      16%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                   1985-1992
                                    HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                     9,100
                                      12%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                   1992-2009
Source: VM IO File_v4.4_11.6.12
[a]Charge size presented in kilograms. Cold storage charge size presented in kilograms/cubic foot.
[b]The growth rate applies to new consumption/virgin manufacture for products entering the market. For example, in the window units market, any year's consumption for new equipment is five percent greater than the previous year's consumption.

Table A-2 presents the assumptions used to model the transition from HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 to alternatives for each end use. Only those end-uses that have been using HCFC-22, HCFC-123, or HCFC-124, or have in whole or in part transitioned to use HCFC-22, HCFC-123, HCFC-124, are shown. The first column of the table presents the HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 equipment types by the refrigerants that they originally used. The second column presents the refrigerants that enter the market and are used in new equipment in place of HCFC-22, HCFC-123, or HCFC-124. These refrigerants begin to enter the new-equipment market in the year presented in the third column and fully penetrate this market by the date presented in the fourth column, after which they continue to make up that portion of the market. The final column indicates the percent of the HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 new-equipment market that the given substitute refrigerant replaces by the transition end date. All transitions are assumed to occur linearly between the transition start and end dates. Each row represents a different vintage of equipment that can have different properties (e.g., charge size or leak rate) in addition to start date for the transition to the substitute, the end date to reach assumed market penetration, and assumed market penetration from the other vintages of equipment. By combining multiple transitions to different refrigerants and over different time periods, the Vintaging Model mimics actual, non-linear transitions that may occur.

         Table A-2: Transition to Alternatives Assumptions of EPA's
Vintaging Model for HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 Refrigeration and AC Equipment[a]
                                       1
                                        2
                                        3
                                        4
                                        5
                  Equipment Type and Original ODS Refrigerant
                                    Substitute
                                   Start Date
                                   End Date[b]
                      Market Penetration of Substitute[c]
HCFC-22 Residential Unitary AC
   R-410A[d]
   2000
   2005
   5%

   2000
   2006
   5%

   2006
   2006
   20%

   2007
   2010
   20%

   2010
   2010
   50%
HCFC-22 Small Commercial Unitary AC
   R-410A
   1996
   2000
   3%

   2001
   2005
   18%

   2006
   2009
   8%

   2009
   2010
   71%
   HCFC-22 Large Commercial Unitary AC
   R-407C
   2006
   2009
   1%

   2009
   2010
   5%

   R-410A
   2001
   2005
   5%

   2006
   2009
   9%

   2009
   2010
   81%
HCFC-22 Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps
   R-407C
   2000
   2006
   5%

   2006
   2009
   3%

   2009
   2010
   23%

   R-410A
   2000
   2006
   5%

   2006
   2009
   5%

   2009
   2010
   41%

   HFC-134a
   2000
   2009
   2%

   2009
   2010
   18%
   HCFC-22 Dehumidifiers
   HFC-134a
   1997
   1997
   89%

   R-410A
   2007
   2010
   11%
   HCFC-22 Packaged Terminal Units
   R-410A
   2006
   2009
   10%

   2009
   2010
   90%
   HCFC-22 Window Units
   R-410A
   2008
   2009
   10%

   2009
   2010
   90%
   CFC-12 Tour Buses
   HFC-134a
   2006
   2007
   100%
   HCFC-22 Transit Buses
   HFC-134a
   1995
   2009
   100%
   HCFC-22 Trains
   HFC-134a
   2002
   2009
   50%

   R-407
   2002
   2009
   50%
   CFC-12 Cold Storage
   R-404A
   1996
   2010
   75%

   R-507A
   1996
   2010
   25%
   HCFC-22 Cold Storage
   R-404A
   1996
   2009
   8%

   2009
   2010
   68%

   R-507A
   1996
   2009
   3%

   2009
   2010
   23%
   R-502 Cold Storage
   R-404A
   1996
   2010
   38%

   R-507A
   1996
   2010
   12%

   Other
   1996
   2010
   50%
CFC-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration
   HFC-134a
   1995
   2010
   100%
   CFC-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration
   HFC-134a
   1995
   2010
   15%

   R-404A
   1995
   2010
   50%

   R-410A
   1999
   2010
   20%

   R-507A
   1995
   2010
   15%
HCFC-22 Industrial Process Refrigeration
   HFC-134a
   1995
   2009
   2%

   2009
   2010
   14%

   R-404A
   1995
   2009
   5%

   2009
   2010
   45%

   R-410A
   1999
   2009
   2%

   2009
   2010
   18%

   R-507A
   1995
   2009
   2%

   2009
   2010
   14%
   CFC-12 Large Retail Food
   R-404A
   2000
   2000
   14%

   2000
   2009
   4%

   2001
   2010
   13%

   2009
   2010
   29%

   2010
   2010
   23%

   R-507A
   2000
   2000
   6%

   2000
   2009
   0.4%

   2001
   2010
   1%

   2009
   2010
   4%

   2010
   2010
   2%

   R-407A
   2000
   2009
   1%

   2001
   2010
   0.3%

   2009
   2010
   2%

   2010
   2010
   0.4%
   R-502 Large Retail Food
   R-404A
   2000
   2000
   14%

   2000
   2009
   4%

   2001
   2010
   13%

   2009
   2010
   29%

   2010
   2010
   23%

   R-507A
   2000
   2000
   6%

   2000
   2009
   0.4%

   2001
   2010
   1%

   2009
   2010
   4%

   2010
   2010
   2%

   R-407A
   2000
   2009
   1%

   2001
   2010
   0.3%

   2009
   2010
   2%

   2010
   2010
   0.4%
HCFC-22 Large Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
   R-404A
   1995
   2000
   30%

   2008
   2010
   30%

   HFC-134a
   1993
   2005
   30%

   2006
   2006
   10%
HCFC-22 Small Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
   R-404A
   1995
   2005
   5%

   2006
   2006
   25%

   2008
   2010
   45%

   R-507A
   1995
   2005
   10%

   2008
   2010
   15%
   CFC-12 Small Retail Food
   HFC-134a
   1993
   1995
   85%

   R-404A
   1993
   1996
   7.5%

   2000
   2009
   7.5%

   R-507A
   1993
   1996
   2.5%

   2000
   2009
   2.5%

   CO2
   2010
   2010
   5%
   CFC-12 Transport
   HFC-134a
   1995
   1999
   100%
   R-502 Transport[e]
   HFC-134a
   1993
   1995
   55%

   R-404A
   1993
   1995
   45%
   HCFC-22 Screw Chillers
   R-410A
   2010
   2020
   36%

   R-407C
   2000
   2009
   1%

   2009
   2010
   9%

   2010
   2020
   54%
   HCFC-22 Scroll Chillers
   R-410A
   2010
   2020
   36%

   R-407C
   2000
   2009
   1%

   2009
   2010
   9%

   2010
   2020
   54%
   CFC-12 Reciprocating Chillers
   R-410A
   2010
   2020
   40%
   CFC-11 Centrifugal Chillers
   HFC-134a
   2000
   2010
   100%
   CFC-12 Centrifugal Chillers
   HFC-134a
   2000
   2010
   100%
   R-500 Chillers
   HFC-134a
   2000
   2010
   100%
Source: VM IO File_v4.4_11.6.12
[a]Interim transitions (e.g., from a CFC to HCFC-22 to HFCs) are not shown. For example, the retail food new-equipment market that originally used CFC-12 first transitioned from CFC-12 to R-502 and then to HCFC-22. Then, between 1995 and 2010, 83 percent of the HCFC-22 new-equipment market is assumed to transition to R-404A, 13 percent to R-507A., and the remaining 4% to R-407A.
[b]The end date is January 1 of the year. Transitions are assumed to occur instantaneously on January 1.
[c]The market penetration of the substitute represents the percent of the HCFC-22 new-equipment market that is replaced by the substitute refrigerant.
[d]Multiple vintages of equipment are represented in this table (i.e. Two vintages of R-410A equipment are represented separately. Each vintage has a different charge size and they reach their maximum market penetration a year apart).
[e]The R-502 transport refrigeration market transitions directly to HFC-134a and R-404A. There is no interim transition to HCFC-22.
[f]Only 13 SEER HCFC-22 equipment is modeled by the Vintaging Model.
    A.1 Limitations and Caveats
This analysis utilized the best data available from various sources. Nonetheless, when making projections several assumptions are required. The following caveats should be noted.
Recycled or Reclaimed Refrigerant

EPA's Vintaging Model was used to determine the quantities of HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 from existing (recycled or reclaimed) sources that can meet post-2015 servicing needs. For a given year, the model assumes that a certain percentage of refrigerant, which varies by end-use, is recovered from discarded equipment, while the remainder is emitted. The model aggregates the quantities recovered but does not distinguish the "pool" of refrigerant between quantities that are reclaimed versus those that are recycled. The model then assumes that the entire pool of recovered refrigerant re-enters the market within the same year. The model assumes that any additional need for refrigerant above the estimated amount recovered is met by virgin manufacture. The recovery pool and the remaining virgin manufacture are evaluated only at the most aggregate level, across all end-uses, and not at the end-use level, as the model does not differentiate between virgin and recycled refrigerant when calculating need for each end-use. This model attribute reflects a more realistic scenario in that reclaimers are not likely to only sell back to the end-use market sector from which the used refrigerant originated; rather, reclaimed refrigerant can be retailed to the overall AC and refrigeration industry.

Under this modeled approach, the model does not consider the quantity of refrigerant that companies send off for destruction after equipment is decommissioned. Although the quantities of destroyed refrigerant are very small, they are not subtracted from the recovered pool, so the quantity available for reuse may be slightly overestimated in the model. Additionally, the model does not account for any stockpiling of recovered refrigerant beyond a one-year timeframe, as discussed in Section 4.3. To the extent that stockpiling has occurred over the last few years, the quantity of recovered refrigerant modeled as re-entering the market may be overestimated in earlier years (i.e., when refrigerant is banked), and the quantity modeled as re-entering the market in later years may be underestimated (i.e., when the accumulated stockpile is accessed as a source). However, EPA has collected data on HCFC-22 inventory from a handful of companies and is using that information to inform the 2015-2019 rulemaking.

Repairs with Dry-Shipped Appliance Components

While it is illegal to install new HCFC-22 systems, HCFC-22 components (e.g., condensing units, compressors, line sets, etc.) that are shipped without a refrigerant charge are available for repairs of systems installed before 2010. The Vintaging Model assumes that components will continue to be available for usual repairs of existing equipment. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the potential impact of dry-shipped appliance components on Vintaging Model projections of HCFC-22 servicing need. The analysis estimated that servicing need could be 7 to 11 percent higher than the Vintaging Model projections when the installation of dry-shipped components is accounted for. Additional details of this analysis can be found in Appendix D.
Date of Shipment versus Date of Installation of HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 Units

It is feasible and potentially common for some AC and refrigeration appliances to be manufactured, charged, shipped and/or purchased in one year and installed in another year. Such would be the case, for example, for units designated for construction projects that have received building code approval and entered into a binding contract in one year but are completed in some future year. The Vintaging Model relies on shipment data of new AC and refrigeration equipment to help estimate new units entering the market for a given year. The model does not make adjustments to shipment data to reflect the date of installation since shipment data is the closest and best proxy to installation for the purposes of modeling. Thus, the model assumes the year of installation is the same as the year of shipment. Any equipment modeled as "shipped" in 2014, for example, is therefore assumed to be part of the installed base in that year. In summary, shipment date becomes the modeled installation date. For example, a residential unitary AC system shipped in 2009 would be in service for 15 years from that date, and would be retired in 2024.

The model assumes that the entire fleet of 2014 HCFC-123 units within a given end-use are being installed and retired in the same year, whereas, in reality some of these units may instead be installed a year or two after shipment, starting their lifetime and servicing need a year or two after the shipment date, and hence, retiring a year or two after the retirement of the rest of the fleet. In this case, the model is not accurately reflecting the actual start and end date for servicing need for this subset of equipment. Instead, the model uses an average lifetime for each unique equipment type. This average is intended to account for units that are used for a few years less than the assumed useful life as well as those that are used well beyond their assumed useful life. Given the use of an average lifetime in the model, variations of a year or two between shipment and installation date should fall within "normal" fluctuations in lifetime seen in actual equipment use. Additionally, the majority of HCFC consumption comes from residential and commercial refrigeration and AC equipment that have lifetimes of 15 years or longer. Thus, any such equipment entering the market after 2015 is assumed to remain in service beyond 2030, when all HCFC consumption will be phased out in the United States.

HCFC-123 in Fire Suppression

Per an amendment to the Clean Air Act passed in December 2011, HCFC use in fire suppression in nonresidential applications can continue after 2015. The Vintaging Model does not yet reflect the amendment to section 605(a) of the Clean Air Act; however, a scenario was run to estimate the use of Halotron I -- the most widely used fire suppression agent containing HCFC-123 -- assuming production and consumption continued until December 31, 2019. Table A-3 presents projected servicing need estimates for HCFC-123.

Table A-3: Projected HCFC-123 Servicing Need for
Fire Suppression, 2015-2025, (Metric Tons)
                                     HCFC
                                     2015
                                     2016
                                     2017
                                     2018
                                     2019
                                     2020
                                     2025
                                   HCFC-123
                                      190
                                      200
                                      200
                                      210
                                      210
                                       -
                                       -

These servicing need estimates were included in the analysis presented in the report.
 Appendix B: HCFC Projections by End-Use
This Appendix provides estimates of the projected installed base of HCFC equipment by end-use and the projected servicing need of HCFCs for AC and refrigeration equipment. Descriptions of end-uses are provided in Section 3 of the report. For the purpose of this analysis, data on HCFC blend consumption for servicing are divided among the corresponding HCFC constituent(s) of that blend, according to the nominal percent composition. However, to accurately portray the number of units containing HCFC-22, blends are not disaggregated when presenting the number of units of equipment (i.e., a unit running on a blend containing HCFC-22 counts as one unit).

Tables B-1, B-2, and B-3 present the number of units of equipment using HCFC-22, HCFC-123, and HCFC-124 (or a blend containing these chemicals) respectively that are estimated to be in use in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. These estimates were developed based on EPA's Vintaging Model, which takes into account recent input from stakeholders (EPA 2012). Sections 3.1 and 3.2 provide an overview of these AC and refrigeration end-uses.

         Table B-1: Estimated Number of HCFC-22 Units in Operation[a]
                                Equipment Type
                                     2010
                                     2015
                                     2020
                                     2025
Window Units
                                                                    76,181,000
                                                                     43,444,500
                                                                      4,102,700
                                                                              -
Packaged Terminal Units
                                                                     2,478,800
                                                                      1,355,100
                                                                        123,100
                                                                              -
Residential Unitary AC
                                                                    76,099,300
                                                                     46,893,700
                                                                     14,663,600
                                                                              -
Small Commercial Unitary AC
                                                                     3,092,700
                                                                      1,887,900
                                                                        751,100
                                                                              -
Large Commercial Unitary AC
                                                                       198,100
                                                                        127,400
                                                                         53,700
                                                                              -
Chillers
                                                                       443,900
                                                                        326,300
                                                                        202,800
                                                                         82,600
Dehumidifiers
                                                                     1,282,100
                                                                        670,200
                                                                              -
                                                                              -
Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps
                                                                     1,393,700
                                                                      1,104,800
                                                                        695,800
                                                                        247,500
Other Mobile AC (Bus & Train AC)
                                                                        18,800
                                                                          4,300
                                                                              -
                                                                              -
Subtotal AC
                                                                   161,188,400
                                                                     95,814,200
                                                                     20,592,800
                                                                        330,100
Retail Food
                                                                     2,112,000
                                                                        969,100
                                                                        461,870
                                                                        142,100
Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                                                         8,700
                                                                          7,500
                                                                          5,600
                                                                          3,500
Subtotal Refrigeration
                                                                     2,120,700
                                                                        976,600
                                                                        467,500
                                                                        145,600
Total
                                                                   163,309,100
                                                                     96,790,800
                                                                     21,060,300
                                                                        475,700
     [a]Cold Storage is not shown in this table because the model estimates this end-use based on cubic feet of storage, rather than number of units.

          Table B-2: Estimated Number of HCFC-123 Units in Operation
                                Equipment Type
                                     2010
                                     2015
                                     2020
                                     2025
Chillers
                                                                         40,900
                                                                         47,600
                                                                         49,500
                                                                         39,800
Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                                                          9,200
                                                                         12,600
                                                                         14,300
                                                                         12,000
Fire Suppression
                                                                      1,226,700
                                                                      1,422,100
                                                                      1,487,800
                                                                        871,100
Total
                                                                      1,276,800
                                                                      1,482,300
                                                                      1,551,600
                                                                        922,900

          Table B-3: Estimated Number of HCFC-124 Units In Operation
                                Equipment Type
                                     2010
                                     2015
                                     2020
                                     2025
Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                                                            170
                                                                            170
                                                                            140
                                                                              -
Medium Retail Food
                                                                         27,700
                                                                         27,200
                                                                         18,800
                                                                              -
Total
                                                                         27,800
                                                                         27,400
                                                                         18,900
                                                                              0

Table B-4 presents the metric tons of HCFC-22 estimated to be needed to service AC and refrigeration equipment in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. Table B-5 presents the metric tons of HCFC-123 estimated to be needed to service and charge new and existing AC and refrigeration equipment in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. Table B-6 presents the metric tons of HCFC-124 estimated to be needed to service refrigeration equipment in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025.

           Table B-4: Projected HCFC-22 Servicing Need (Metric Tons)
                                Equipment Type
                                     2010
                                     2015
                                     2020
                                     2025
Window Units
                                                                            270
                                                                            160
                                                                         <50
                                                                              -
Packaged Terminal Units
                                                                             90
                                                                         <50
                                                                         <50
                                                                              -
Residential Unitary AC
                                                                         37,900
                                                                         24,400
                                                                          9,500
                                                                              -
Small Commercial Unitary AC
                                                                          2,600
                                                                          1,600
                                                                            600
                                                                              -
Large Commercial Unitary AC
                                                                            300
                                                                            190
                                                                             80
                                                                              -
Chillers
                                                                          3,300
                                                                          1,300
                                                                            720
                                                                            310
Dehumidifiers
                                                                         <50
                                                                         <50
                                                                              -
                                                                              -
Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps
                                                                            290
                                                                            230
                                                                            140
                                                                             50
Other Mobile AC (Bus & Train AC)
                                                                             80
                                                                         <50
                                                                              -
                                                                              -
Total AC
                                                                         44,800
                                                                         27,900
                                                                         11,100
                                                                            360
Cold Storage
                                                                          1,100
                                                                            830
                                                                            570
                                                                            340
Retail Food
                                                                         14,700
                                                                         10,200
                                                                          5,500
                                                                          1,300
Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                                                          8,900
                                                                          7,200
                                                                          5,400
                                                                          3,500
Total Refrigeration
                                                                         24,700
                                                                         18,200
                                                                         11,400
                                                                          5,200
Total
                                                                         69,400
                                                                         46,100
                                                                         22,500
                                                                          5,500
      Note: Totals do not sum due to independent rounding

          Table B-5: Projected HCFC-123 Servicing Need (Metric Tons)
                                Equipment Type
                                     2010
                                     2015
                                     2020
                                     2025
Chillers
                                      420
                                     1,200
                                      220
                                      180
Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      260
                                      770
                                      370
                                      290
Fire Suppression
                                      160
                                      190
                                       -
                                       -
Total
                                      850
                                    2,200
                                     590
                                     470

          Table B-6: Projected HCFC-124 Servicing Need (Metric Tons)
                                Equipment Type
                                     2010
                                     2015
                                     2020
                                     2025
Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                       2
                                       2
                                       2
                                       -
Medium Retail Food
                                       2
                                       2
                                       1
                                       -
Total
                                       5
                                       5
                                       4
                                       -
     Note: Totals do not sum due to independent rounding

 Appendix C: Changes to the Vintaging Model
Table C-1 summarizes the changes that have been made to EPA's Vintaging Model and the HCFCs affected by the alteration since the 2009 Service Tail Report. Changes were made to the model based on industry research and feedback.

        Table C-1: Changes Made to EPA's Vintaging Model (Since 2009)
                                    End Use
                                Change(s) Made
                                HCFCs Affected
Large Retail Food[a]
Increased 1985 stock assumptions
Charge size reduced
Distributed systems and Secondary Loop Systems (SLS) were introduced (reduced charge sizes)
Increased lifetime from 15 years to 17.5 years
Increased disposal loss rate for DX (20%) and Distributed (18.5%) and decreased disposal loss rate for SLS (14%)
New refrigerants added to end-use (R-402A, R-422A, R-422D, R-407A, R-408A [R-402A and R-408A blends contain HCFC-22])
HCFC-22
Medium Retail Food[a]
End-Use was split into two end-uses (large condensing units and small condensing units)
Decreased 1985 stock assumptions
Additional refrigerant blends were added (R-401A [containing HCFC-22 and HCFC-124], R-402A, HFC-134a)
Large condensing units have a larger annual leak rate (increased from 6% to 13%)
HCFC-22, HCFC-124
Small Retail Food[a]
Increased 1985 stock assumptions
Decreased leak and service rate
HCFC-22
Small Commercial Unitary AC
Increased original 1985 stock assumptions
HCFC-22
Large Commercial Unitary AC
Decreased original 1985 stock assumption
HCFC-22
Residential Unitary AC
Increased original 1985 stock assumptions
Removed transitions to R-407C (all equipment transitions from HCFC-22 to R-410A)
Increased service loss rate (10%)
HCFC-22
[a]ICF, 2011.

 Appendix D: Sensitivity Analyses
Although EPA's assumptions are continually updated to improve and refine the accuracy of the model, future servicing need for HCFC-22 is affected by outside factors that may not be fully reflected. The extent to which the market price of HCFC-22 fluctuates and affects usage patterns and transitions and how HCFC allocations in recent years affect future servicing needs are two examples of market influence that is not captured in the current assessment.

This Appendix presents analyses performed to determine the effect that different assumptions may have on HCFC-22 service need. The following sensitivity analyses were considered individually (i.e., the effects on HCFC-22 servicing need resulting from each analysis are not additive or cumulative):

   * Smaller system charge sizes;
   * Lower equipment loss rates;
   * Earlier transitions to alternatives; and
   * Longer equipment lifetimes due to repairs using dry-shipped condensing units.
    D.1 Smaller System Charge Size
This sensitivity analysis explores the impact on servicing need of a smaller charge size in residential unitary AC equipment. Residential unitary AC accounts for approximately 50 percent of the total servicing need across all refrigeration and AC end-uses for 2015 to 2019. This end-use represents such a large portion of the total servicing need for HCFC-22 in refrigeration and AC equipment due in part to its high installed base, larger equipment charge sizes, long lifetimes, and high loss rates. A large number of residential unitary AC units containing HCFC-22 will continue to be in use through 2023, and they are projected to require a significant amount of HCFC-22 to meet their servicing need.

In 2001, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) set a stricter seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) standard for residential unitary ACs and heat pumps. The minimum efficiency standard of residential unitary ACs and heat pumps was raised by 30 percent to a 13 SEER for all such units manufactured for sale on or after January 23, 2006 (DOE 2001; DOE 2004). These increased SEER requirements are reflected in this report, although earlier SEER requirements are not explicitly reflected. As shown in the Table D-1, the EPA currently assumes that the 13 SEER vintage of HCFC-22 residential unitary AC equipment uses a charge size of approximately 4.8 kg.

Table D-1: Charge Size, Loss Rate, and Lifetime for HCFC-22 Residential AC Equipment
                                    End-Use
                                   Original
                            Residential Unitary AC
                                    13 SEER
                            Residential Unitary AC
                               Charge Size (kg)
                                      3.4
                                      4.8
                               Annual Loss Rate
                                     13.6%
                                     13.6%
                               Lifetime (years)
                                      15
                                      15
                               Manufactured From
                                  1992 - 2005
                                 2006  -  2009

This analysis examines the potential effects on service need of a smaller charge size of 4 kg for HCFC-22 13 SEER residential unitary AC equipment. This change results in a 2 to 7 percent decrease in total HCFC-22 service need across all refrigeration and AC end-uses between 2015 and 2023, as shown in Table D-2. After 2023, all HCFC-22 residential unitary AC equipment is modeled as having reached end-of-life, so there is no longer servicing need for the end-use.

Table D-2: HCFC-22 Service Need for Residential AC from Smaller 13 SEER Charge Size, 2015-2025
                                    End-Use
                                     2015
                                     2016
                                     2017
                                     2018
                                     2019
                                     2020
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
Resid-ential Unitary AC
VM Baseline
                                    24,400
                                    21,700
                                    18,900
                                    16,000
                                    13,000
                                     9,500
                                     6,500
                                     3,900
                                     1,800
                                       -
                                       -

Lower Charge
                                    23,200
                                    20,500
                                    17,600
                                    14,700
                                    11,600
                                     8,000
                                     5,400
                                     3,300
                                     1,500
                                       -
                                       -
Total
VM Baseline
                                    46,100
                                    41,600
                                    36,700
                                    32,300
                                    27,700
                                    22,500
                                    17,900
                                    13,700
                                    10,100
                                     6,900
                                     5,500

Lower Charge
                                    45,000
                                    40,400
                                    35,500
                                    31,000
                                    26,300
                                    21,000
                                    16,800
                                    13,100
                                     9,800
                                     6,900
                                     5,500
Percent Decrease in Total HCFC-22 Need
(All Ref/AC End Uses)
                                      2%
                                      3%
                                      3%
                                      4%
                                      5%
                                      7%
                                      6%
                                      5%
                                      3%
                                       -
                                       -
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
    D.2 Lower Equipment Loss Rate
This sensitivity analysis explores the impact on servicing need of a lower loss rate for residential unitary AC, large and medium retail food refrigeration, and cold storage units. With the price of HCFC-22 increasing, feedback from stakeholders has suggested that service technicians may now be more careful with the refrigerant, resulting in lower loss rates than those estimated in this report.

Between 2015 and 2021, service need from residential unitary AC, large retail food refrigeration, medium retail food refrigeration (large condensing units), and cold storage together are projected to account for approximately 70 to 80 percent of the total service need across all refrigeration and AC end-uses; by 2025, this proportion drops to 30 percent of total need. These four end-uses represent a large portion of the total servicing need for HCFC-22 in refrigeration and AC equipment due in part to their high installed base, larger equipment charge sizes, long lifetimes, and high modeled loss rates. A large number of units containing HCFC-22 within these end-uses will continue to be in use through 2025, and they are expected to require a significant amount of HCFC-22 to meet their servicing need.

The annual loss rates for these end-uses (as modeled in the Vintaging Model) are shown in Table D-3. The annual loss rate is equal to the annual leak rate plus the annual emission rate from servicing.

Table D-3: Annual Loss Rate and Lifetime for HCFC-22 Residential AC, Large Retail Food Refrigeration, Medium Retail Food Refrigeration (Large Condensing Units), and Cold Storage Equipment
                                    End-Use
                      HCFC-22 Equipment Charge Size (kg)
                                   Lifetime
                                    (years)
                      HCFC-22 Equipment Annual Loss Rate
Residential Unitary AC
                                      3-5
                                      15
                                      14%
Large Retail Food
                                  1,360-1,800
                                      18
                                      30%
Medium Retail Food (Large Condensing Units)
                                      25
                                      20
                                      15%
Cold Storage
                                  <0.01[a]
                                     20-25
                                      20%
  [a]Cold storage charge size presented in kilograms/cubic foot

This analysis examines the potential effects of a lower loss rate for HCFC-22 equipment on service need, by assuming that residential unitary AC, large retail food refrigeration, medium retail food refrigeration (large condensing units), and cold storage units undergo annual leak tightening beginning in 2012. The following specific assumptions are made:

   * Residential Unitary AC: Annual loss rate will decline by 1 percentage point per year until the loss rate equals 10 percent.
   * Large Retail Food: Annual loss rate will decline by 5 percentage points so that the loss rate equals 25 percent.
   * Medium Retail Food (Large Condensing Units): Annual loss rates will decline by 1 percentage point per year until the loss rate equals 10 percent.
   * Cold Storage: Annual loss rate will decline by 1 percentage point per year until the loss rate equals 15 percent.

These changes result in a 10 to 23 percent decrease in total HCFC-22 service need across all refrigeration and AC end-uses between 2015 and 2025, as shown in Table D-4.

Table D-4: HCFC-22 Service Need for Residential AC, Large Retail Food Refrigeration, Medium Retail Food (Large Condensing Units), and Cold Storage from Lower Annual Loss Rates, 2015-2025
                                    End-Use
                                     2015
                                     2016
                                     2017
                                     2018
                                     2019
                                     2020
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
Residential Unitary AC
VM Baseline
                                    24,400
                                    21,700
                                    18,900
                                    16,000
                                    13,000
                                     9,500
                                     6,500
                                     3,900
                                     1,800
                                       -
                                       -

Lower Loss
                                    17,200
                                    15,300
                                    13,300
                                    11,300
                                     9,200
                                     6,700
                                     4,600
                                     2,700
                                     1,200
                                      -
                                      -
Large Retail Food
VM Baseline
                                     9,100
                                     8,200
                                     7,200
                                     6,500
                                     5,800
                                     4,900
                                     4,200
                                     3,400
                                     2,600
                                     1,900
                                     1,100

Lower Loss
                                     6,000
                                     5,400
                                     4,800
                                     4,300
                                     3,800
                                     3,300
                                     2,700
                                     2,200
                                     1,700
                                     1,200
                                      700
Medium Retail Food (Large Condensing Units)
VM Baseline
                                      900
                                      800
                                      700
                                      700
                                      600
                                      500
                                      500
                                      400
                                      300
                                      300
                                      200

Lower Loss
                                      700
                                      600
                                      500
                                      400
                                      400
                                      400
                                      300
                                      300
                                      200
                                      200
                                      100
Cold Storage
VM Baseline
                                      800
                                      800
                                      700
                                      700
                                      600
                                      600
                                      500
                                      500
                                      400
                                      400
                                      300

Lower Loss
                                      700
                                      600
                                      500
                                      500
                                      500
                                      400
                                      400
                                      400
                                      300
                                      300
                                      300
Total
VM Baseline
                                    46,100
                                    41,600
                                    36,700
                                    32,300
                                    27,700
                                    22,500
                                    17,900
                                    13,700
                                    10,100
                                     6,900
                                     5,500

Lower Loss
                                    35,400
                                    31,900
                                    28,300
                                    25,000
                                    21,600
                                    17,700
                                    14,300
                                    11,200
                                     8,400
                                     6,100
                                     5,000
Percent Decrease in Total HCFC-22 Need
(All Ref/AC End Uses)
                                      23%
                                      23%
                                      23%
                                      23%
                                      22%
                                      21%
                                      20%
                                      19%
                                      16%
                                      12%
                                      10%
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.

    D.3 Earlier Equipment Transitions to Alternatives
This sensitivity analysis explores the impact on servicing need of an earlier transition of HCFC-22 residential unitary AC, retail food refrigeration, and IPR equipment to alternative refrigerants. Of total HCFC-22 service need from 2015 to 2020, residential unitary AC, retail food refrigeration, and industrial process refrigeration (IPR) together account for approximately 90 percent. As the price of HCFC-22 increased and as equipment reached the end of its useful life, feedback from stakeholders indicates that retrofits and system replacements may have occurred more rapidly than modeled in this report.

New residential unitary AC equipment completed the transition from HCFC-22 to R-410A as of 2010, due to the ban on the use of virgin HCFC-22 to service new refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment. Although no new residential AC systems are manufactured today using HCFC-22, this report assumes that an estimated 50 percent of the residential unitary AC market in the United States was using HCFC-22 through 2009. As a result, servicing need for HCFC-22 is modeled for another 15 years -- through the end of 2023 -- the full 15 year lifetime of these units.

A significant portion of retail food refrigeration, which consists of large direct expansion (DX) systems, large condensing units, small condensing units, and stand-alone units, were also using HCFC-22 or blends containing HCFC-22 up until 2010; however, transitions away from HCFC-22 to other refrigerants and refrigerant blends (e.g., HFC-134a, R-507, and R-404A) are modeled as early as 1993. In the retail food sector, industry contacts, especially distributors, are suggesting that HCFC-22 sales have dropped off significantly in recent years, and that retrofits or system replacements are undertaken more frequently.

While historical HCFC-22 use in IPR systems was somewhat limited -- HCFC-22 systems only accounted for approximately 10-15 percent of the total IPR market, some HCFC-22 units continued to be manufactured until 2010 (as modeled in this report). These units have significant charge sizes and a lifetime of approximately 25 years, which contribute to the high service need for these units beyond 2015.

This analysis examines the potential effects of early retirement of HCFC-22 equipment on service need, by assuming that 20 percent of residential unitary air-conditioning, retail food refrigeration, and industrial process refrigeration equipment are retired 5 years earlier than this report assumes, beginning in 2010 (e.g., 20 percent of equipment that would have retired in 2015 is being retired in 2010 instead). These changes result in a 9 to 14 percent decrease in HCFC-22 service need between 2015 and 2025, as shown in Table D-5.

Table D-5: HCFC-22 Service Need for Residential AC, Retail Food Refrigeration, and Industrial Process Refrigeration from Early Retirement, 2015-2025
                                    End-Use
                                     2015
                                     2016
                                     2017
                                     2018
                                     2019
                                     2020
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
Residential
VM Baseline
                                    24,400
                                    21,700
                                    18,900
                                    16,000
                                    13,000
                                     9,500
                                     6,500
                                     3,900
                                     1,800
                                       -
                                       -

Early Transition
                                    21,400
                                    18,700
                                    15,900
                                    13,200
                                    10,400
                                     7,600
                                     5,200
                                     3,100
                                     1,400
                                       -
                                       -
Retail Food
VM Baseline
                                    10,200
                                     9,200
                                     8,000
                                     7,200
                                     6,400
                                     5,500
                                     4,700
                                     3,800
                                     3,000
                                     2,200
                                     1,300

Early Transition
                                     9,300
                                     8,300
                                     7,200
                                     6,400
                                     5,600
                                     4,700
                                     3,800
                                     3,100
                                     2,400
                                     1,700
                                     1,100
IPR
VM Baseline
                                     7,200
                                     6,800
                                     6,400
                                     6,000
                                     5,700
                                     5,400
                                     5,000
                                     4,600
                                     4,300
                                     3,900
                                     3,500

Early Transition
                                     6,800
                                     6,400
                                     6,000
                                     5,700
                                     5,300
                                     5,000
                                     4,600
                                     4,200
                                     3,900
                                     3,500
                                     3,100
Total
VM Baseline
                                    46,100
                                    41,600
                                    36,700
                                    32,300
                                    27,700
                                    22,500
                                    17,900
                                    13,700
                                    10,100
                                     6,900
                                     5,500

Early Transition
                                    41,800
                                    37,300
                                    32,600
                                    28,300
                                    23,900
                                    19,400
                                    15,400
                                    11,800
                                     8,700
                                     6,100
                                     4,900
Percent Decrease in Total HCFC-22 Need
                                      9%
                                      10%
                                      11%
                                      13%
                                      14%
                                      14%
                                      14%
                                      14%
                                      13%
                                      12%
                                      12%
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
    D.4 Longer Equipment Lifetimes Due to Repairs Using Dry-shipped Condensing Units
This sensitivity analysis explores the impact on servicing need of repairing residential unitary AC systems with dry-shipped condensing units (CUs). Although new HCFC-22 systems were banned in 2010, replacement dry-shipped CUs can be used for repairing systems, potentially extending the lifetime of the AC unit (and servicing need). This analysis assumes existing residential unitary AC units using HCFC-22 are repaired with dry-shipped CUs. Table D-6 shows the percentage of new shipments that EPA assumes are HCFC-22 CUs instead of R-410a CUs.

Table D-6: Assumptions for Percentage of New CU Shipments Going to HCFC-22 Repairs
 Year
                                     2010
                                     2011
                                     2012
                                     2013
                                     2014
                                     2015
                                     2016
                                     2017
                                     2018
 Percentage of New Shipments
                                      5%
                                      20%
                                      15%
                                      10%
                                      10%
                                      5%
                                      5%
                                      5%
                                      0%

The analysis further assumes that repairing systems with dry-shipped CUs extends the equipment lifetime by 10 years.

Table D-7 shows the resulting increase in need in the residential unitary AC end-use and the percent increase in service need compared to total need from all refrigeration and air-conditioning end-uses associated with increasing equipment lifetimes by 10 years with dry-shipped CUs. This change results in a 7 to 11 percent increase in HCFC-22 service need between 2015 and 2025.

Table D-7: Additional HCFC-22 Need in Residential Unitary AC from Dry-Shipped CUs, 2015-2025
                                    End-Use
                                     2015
                                     2016
                                     2017
                                     2018
                                     2019
                                     2020
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
Baseline Servicing Need for Residential Unitary AC
                                    24,400
                                    21,700
                                    18,900
                                    16,000
                                    13,000
                                     9,500
                                     6,500
                                     3,900
                                     1,800
                                       -
                                       -
Additional Modeled Servicing Need for Residential Unitary AC
                                     3,700
                                     3,900
                                     4,100
                                     2,700
                                     2,700
                                     2,600
                                     1,900
                                     1,300
                                      900
                                      600
                                      400
Total Residential Unitary AC Servicing Need
                                    28,100
                                    25,600
                                    23,000
                                    18,800
                                    15,700
                                    12,100
                                     8,300
                                     5,200
                                     2,700
                                      600
                                      400
Increase in Total Need for All HCFC-22 Ref/AC Servicing
                                      8%
                                      9%
                                      11%
                                      8%
                                      10%
                                      11%
                                      10%
                                      10%
                                      9%
                                      8%
                                      7%
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.

 Appendix E: HCFC-22 Inventory Estimate
In August 2013, EPA asked questions of up to nine companies about their HCFC-22 inventory and sales. Under section 114(a) of the Clean Air Act, for the purpose of carrying out any provision of the Act, EPA has the authority to ask any person who is subject to any requirement of the Act to establish and maintain such records, make such reports, and provide such other information as the Administrator may reasonably require. Many stakeholders encouraged EPA to use this authority to gather data on HCFC-22 inventory levels in particular.

EPA used the data received in response to its section 114 request to substantiate what the agency had already heard from many industry representatives: HCFC-22 inventory is still high, and potentially higher than the agency had previously estimated in the fall of 2011. Concurrent with the 2012-2014 Proposed Rule, EPA published Analysis of HCFC -  22 Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector: Additional Considerations for Estimating Virgin Demand ("Adjustment Memo"), which stated that EPA believed HCFC-22 inventory was between 22,700 and 45,400 MT. Based on inventory data from a limited number of companies as of December 31, 2012, as well as other information received by the agency during the development of this proposed rule, EPA knows HCFC-22 inventory is higher than its previous estimate.

Given that inventory at the end of 2012 was higher than 45,400 MT, EPA expects that a significant amount of HCFC-22 servicing need in 2015-2019 can be met by existing stocks. Since HCFC-22 inventory is quite large, and may even grow in 2013 and 2014, the preamble to the 2015-2019 Proposed Rule states that EPA is proposing to account for up to 10,000 MT of inventory drawdown each year as it considers an appropriate HCFC-22 consumption allocation.
 References
Airgas. 2006. Personal communication between Lauren Flinn, ICF International, and Bob Mueller, Director, Utility & CPI Industries, Airgas. August 2006.

The Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy. 2006. Comment submitted in response to EPA's Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 70 FR 67172), November 4, 2005. EDocket ID Number, OAR-2003-0130, Document ID No. 0172, 0174, January 19, 2006, January 26, 2006.
American Pacific. 2013. Personal communication between Derina Man, ICF International, and Jeff Gibson, American Pacific. April 2013.
Amtrak. 2005. Email correspondence between Iliriana Mushkolaj, ICF Consulting and Madina Alharazim, Amtrak. July 2005.

ARI. 2005. Personal communication and transcribed correspondence between Lauren Flinn, ICF Consulting and Karim Amrane, Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI). March to June 2005.

Arkema. 2009. Comment submitted in response to EPA's Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 40 FR Part 82). December 23, 2008. EDocket ID Number, OAR-2008-0496, Document ID No. 0111.1, March, 9, 2009.

Badger/Kidde. 2013. Personal communication between Derina Man, ICF International, and Tom Lucier, Badger/Kidde. March 2013.

Carrier Corporation. 2005a. Personal communication and transcribed correspondence between Lauren Flinn, ICF Consulting and Fred Keller, Carrier Corporation. June 2005.
Carrier Corporation. 2005b. Personal communication between Iliriana Mushkolaj, ICF Consulting and Chris Repice, Carrier Corporation. June 2005.
Cold Ships. 2009. Personal communication between Lauren Flinn, ICF International and Gerald Donovan, Cold Ships. October, 2009.
DOE. 2012. Energy Saver: Central Air Conditioning. Available at: http://energy.gov/energysaver/articles/central-air-conditioning. Accessed February 2013.
DOE. 2011. Federal Register. "Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps; Direct Final Rule." Volume 76, Number 123. June 27, 2011. 10 CFR Part 430. Available online at http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2011-BT-STD-0011-0001

DOE. 2004. Department of Energy Press Release. "Energy Department Will Enforce 13 SEER Air Conditioner Standard." Number R-04-064. April 2, 2004.

DOE. 2001. Federal Register. "Consumer products; energy conservation program: Central air conditioners and central air conditioning heat pumps -- Energy conservation standards; Final Rule." Volume 66, Number 14. January 22, 2001. 10 CFR, Part 430. Available at http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=2001_register&docid=01-1790-filed

EPA. 2013. Summary of Refrigerant Reclamation 2000-2011. Available at <http://www.epa.gov/ozone/title6/608/reclamation/recsum.pdf>. Accessed January 2013.

EPA. 2012. U.S. EPA Vintaging Model. Version VM IO_v4.4_11.6.12.

EPA. 2011. Federal Register. "Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Adjustments to the Allowance System
for Controlling HCFC Production, Import, and Export." Vol. 76, No. 151. Friday, August 5, 2011. 40 CFR Part 82. Available online at http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-08-05/pdf/2011-19896.pdf.

EPA. 2009. "Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Adjustments to the Allowance System for Controlling HCFC Production, Import, and Export." Vol. 74, No. 239. Tuesday, December 15, 2009. 40 CFR Part 82. Available at http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2009-12-15/pdf/E9-29569.pdf.

EPA. 2007. HCFC Phaseout Schedule. Available at http://www.epa.gov/ozone/title6/phaseout/hcfc.html. Accessed December 2007.

EPA. 2006. Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases. EPA Report 430-R-06-005. Washington,
DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Atmospheric Programs.
EPA. 2004a. Federal Register. "Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Refrigerant Recycling: Substitute Refrigerants; Final Rule." Volume 69, Number 49. March 12, 2004. 40 CFR, Part 82. Available online at
http://www.epa.gov/ozone/title6/608/regulations/69fr11946.pdf.

EPA. 2004b. "Analysis of Costs to Abate International Ozone-Depleting Substance Substitute Emissions." Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Report No. EPA 430-R-04-006. Washington, DC, June 2004.

EPA. 2003a. Federal Register. "Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Allowance
System for Controlling HCFC Production, Import and Export." Volume 68, Number 13. January 23, 2003. 40 CFR, Part 82. Available at http://www.epa.gov/ozone/title6/phaseout/68fr2819.pdf.

EPA. 2003b. "Regulatory Impact Analysis: The Substitutes Recycling Rule (Section 608 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990)." September 16, 2003. U.S. EPA, Global Programs Division, Office of Air and Radiation.

FMI. 1995. Guidelines for the Use of Alternative Refrigerants in the Supermarket. The Education and Research Departments, Food Marketing Institute. Released September 1995.

Garry, M. 2012. SN Refrigeration Survey: HCFC-22 Still Widely Used. Supermarket News. October 12, 2012. Available online at http://supermarketnews.com/technology/sn-refrigeration-survey-HCFC-22-still-widely-used

Greyhound. 2005. Personal communication between Iliriana Mushkolaj, ICF Consulting and Mario Nava, Greyhound. June 2005.

Halotron. 2008. Halotron Product Information. Available online at http://www.halotroninc.
com/halotron1.php. Accessed April 2008.

HARDI. 2004. The Status of Refrigerant 410A For New A/C Equipment. Heating, Air-conditioning, & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI), Refrigeration Systems Council Report to Industry. March 15, 2004.

Hill Phoenix. 2009. Personal communication between Emily Herzog, ICF International and Scott Martin, Hill Phoenix. May 2009.

Hill Phoenix. 2005. Personal communication and transcribed correspondence between Lauren Flinn, ICF Consulting and Scott Martin, Hill Phoenix. February and June 2005.

Home Energy Center. 2006. Personal communication between Charlotte Coultrap-Bagg, ICF International and Steve Woolery, Home Energy Center. August 23, 2006.
Hughes Associates Inc. 2012. Personal communication between Derina Man, ICF International, and Dan Verdonik. April 5, 2012.
Hussmann/Ingresoll Rand. 2009. Personal communication between Julia Forge, ICF International, and Bryan Ware, Hussman/Ingersoll Rand. July 2009.
ICF International. 2012. Proposed Approach: Other HCFCs beyond 2014. Memorandum. EPA.

ICF International. 2011. Revised Analysis of HCFC-22 Servicing Needs in the U.S. Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Sector: Additional Considerations for Estimating Virgin Demand. Memorandum. EPA.

Johnson Controls, 2009. Personal communication between Lauren Flinn, ICF International and Chris Forth, Johnson Controls.
J.P. Morgan, 2011. 2011 HVAC Review and Outlook. North America Equity Research. November 11, 2011.
Kysor/Warren. 2009. Personal communication between Emily Herzog, ICF International, and Travis 0Lumpkin, Kysor/Warren. May 2009.
Motorcoach Training. 2005. Personal communication and transcribed correspondence between Lauren Flinn, ICF Consulting and Joe Pemberton, Motorcoach Training. June to July 2005.

National Refrigerants, Inc. 2006. Comments submitted in response to EPA's Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 70 FR 67172), November 4, 2005. EDocket ID Number, OAR-2003-0130, Document ID No. 0170, 0170.1, January 2, 2006.

Shecco. 2012. 2013: Natural Refrigerants Market Growth for North America. Available online at: http://www.shecco.com/files/the_guide_2013-america.pdf

Skaer, Mark. 2007. Average SEERs Rise in Residential Sector. Air Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration News. September 10, 2007.

UNEP. 2003a. Report of the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol, TEAP HCFC Task Force, May 2003. Ozone Secretariat, United Nations Environment Programme. Available online at: http://ozone.unep.org/teap/Reports/Other_Task_Force/HCFC03R1.pdf.

UNEP. 2003b. Handbook for the International Treaties for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. Sixth Edition. United Nations Environment Programme, Ozone Secretariat. Available online at http://www.unep.org/ozone/Handbook2003.shtml.

UNEP. 2000. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Ozone Secretariat. United Nations Environment Programme. Available online at http://ozone.unep.org/pdfs/Montreal-Protocol2000.pdf.

United States Congress. 2011. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. 112 Cong., 1 sess. Cong. Bill. Available online at <http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112hr1540eh/pdf/BILLS-112hr1540eh.pdf>.

U.S. HCFC Manufacturer Representatives. 2008. Personal communications between ICF International and HCFC manufacturers, including AGC Chemicals, Honeywell, DuPont, Kivlan, Solvay, and York. February  -  March, 2008.

U.S. HCFC Manufacturer Representatives. 2009. Personal communications between ICF International and HCFC manufacturers, including Halon Alternatives Research Corporation (HARC) and Honeywell. January-July 2009.

U.S. HCFC Manufacturer Representatives. 2013. Personal communications between EPA and refrigerant industry representatives, including Airgas, AHRI, The Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, Arkema, Combes Investment Property, DuPont, HARDI, Honeywell, Hudson, National, Polar Technologies and USA Refrigerants. March-July, 2013.

Verisae. 2009. Personal communication between Emily Herzog, ICF International, and Ted Gartland, Verisae. May 2009.

WMATA. 2005. Email correspondence between Lauren Flinn, ICF Consulting and Joan Lelacheur, Washington Metro Area Transit Authority. June 2005.