EAV7........................................................                   -3.6                   -3.8                   -3.3                   -3.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values represent disbenefits.

3. Other Purchase Price and Fueling Considerations Affecting Consumers
    The analysis monetizes vehicle technology costs and fueling impacts
and informs net benefits associated with the standards. It also
reflects impacts on consumers. In addition to the effects that we
monetize, we look more closely into, but do not monetize, the effects
of the standards on low-income households and on consumers of low-
priced new vehicles and used vehicles. These effects depend, in large
part, on two elements of vehicle ownership, namely (a) the purchase
prices of vehicles and (b) fueling expenditures. Typically, the
introduction of more stringent standards leads to higher purchase
prices and lower fuel expenditures. The net effect varies across
households. However, the reduction in fuel expenditures may be
especially relevant for low-income households and consumers in the used
and low-priced new vehicle markets. First, fuel expenditures are a
larger portion of expenses for low-income households compared to higher
income households. Second, lower-priced new vehicles have historically
been more fuel efficient. Third, fuel economy and therefore fuel
savings do not decline as vehicles age even though the price paid for
vehicles typically declines as vehicles age and are resold. Fourth,
low-income households are more likely to purchase lower-priced new
vehicles and used vehicles (Hutchens et al. 2021), capturing their
associated fuel savings.
    Furthermore, for many vehicle consumers, access to credit for
vehicle purchases is essential and may be of particular concern for
low-income households. The effects of the standards on access to credit
is influenced by the potentially countervailing forces of vehicle
purchase costs and fuel costs. However, the degree of influence and the
net effect is not clear (see Chapter 8.4.3 of the 2021 rule). Increased
purchase prices and presumably higher loan principal may, in some
cases, discourage lending, while reduced fuel expenditures may, in some
cases, improve lenders' perceptions of borrowers' repayment
reliability.
    Finally, while access to conventional fuels can be assumed for the
most part, the number and density of charging stations varies
considerably.\772\ Public and private charging infrastructure has been
expanding alongside PEV adoption and is generally expected to continue
to grow, particularly in light of public and private investments and
consistent with local level priorities.773 774 This includes
home charging events, which are likely to continue to grow with PEV
adoption but are also expected to represent a declining proportion of
charging events as PEV share increases and more drivers without easy
access to home charging adopt PEVs and therefore use public
charging.\775\ Thus, publicly accessible charging is an important
consideration, especially among renters and residents of multi-family
housing and persons who charge away from home.\776\ Households without
access to charging at home or the workplace may incur additional
charging costs, though there is ongoing interest in and development of
alternative charging solutions (e.g., curbside charging or use of
mobile charging units) and business models (e.g., providing charging as
an amenity or as a subscription service for multi-family housing).\777\
Though, especially among consumers who rely upon public charging, the
higher price of public charging is important, improvements in access
and availability to both public and private charging are expected,
bolstered by private and public investment in charging infrastructure,
including the recent Federal investments provided by the CHIPS Act, the
BIL and the IRA, which will allow for increased investment along the
vehicle supply chain, including charging infrastructure.\778\ Please
see Section IV.C.4 and Chapter 5 of the DRIA for a more detailed
discussion of public and private investments in charging
infrastructure, and our assessment of infrastructure needs and costs
under this proposal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \772\ https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html,
accessed 3/8/2022.
    \773\ Bui, Anh, Peter Slowik, and Nic Lutsey. 2020. Update on
electric vehicle adoption across U.S. cities. International Council
on Clean Transportation. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/EV-cities-update-aug2020.pdf.
    \774\ Greschak, Tressa, Matilda Kreider, and Nathan Legault.
2022. ``Consumer Adoption of Electric Vehicles: An Evaluation of
Local Programs in the United States.'' School for Environment and
Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/172221.
    \775\ Ge, Yanbo, Christina Simeone, Andrew Duvall, and Andrew
Wood. 2021. There's No Place Like Home: Residential Parking,
Electrical Access, and Implications for the Future of Electric
Vehicle Charging Infrastructure. NREL/TP-5400-81065, Golden, CO:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81065.pdf.
    \776\ https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/EV-Demographic-Survey-English-final.pdf.
    \777\ Matt Alexander, Noel Crisostomo, Wendell Krell, Jeffrey
Lu, Raja Ramesh, ``Assembly Bill 2127: Electric Vehicle Charging
Infrastructure Assessment,'' July 2021, California Energy
Commission. Accessed March 9, 2023, at https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/programs/electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure-assessment-ab-2127.
    \778\ More information on these three acts can be found in the
January, 2023 White House publication ``Building a Clean Energy
Economy: A Guidebook to the Inflation Reduction Act's Investments in
Clean Energy and Climate Action.'' found online at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

4. Transfers
    There are three types of transfers included in our analysis. Two of
these transfers come in the form of tax credits arising from the
Inflation Reduction Act to encourage investment in battery technology
and the purchase of electrified vehicles. These are transfers from the
government to producers of vehicles (the battery tax credit) or
purchasers of vehicles (the vehicle purchase tax credit). The third is
fuel taxes which are transfers from purchasers of fuel to the
government. The proposal results in less liquid-fuel consumed and,
therefore, less money transferred from purchasers of fuel to the
government.

  Table 167--Battery Tax Credits Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Battery tax      Battery tax      Battery tax      Battery tax
                Calendar year                     credits,         credits,         credits,         credits,
                                                  proposal      alternative 1    alternative 2    alternative 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................................             6.8              7.1              4.8              4.1
2028........................................             9.2               11              6.3              5.6
2029........................................              13               13               11              6.9
2030........................................              11               13              8.7              7.9
2031........................................               9              9.3              7.6              8.4
2032........................................             5.3              5.5              4.6              5.4
2035........................................               0                0                0                0
2040........................................               0                0                0                0
2045........................................               0                0                0                0
2050........................................               0                0                0                0
2055........................................               0                0                0                0
PV3.........................................              49               52               39               34
PV7.........................................              43               46               34               30
EAV3........................................             2.6              2.7                2              1.8
EAV7........................................             3.5              3.8              2.8              2.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 168--Vehicle Purchase Tax Credits Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-
                                                      Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Purchase tax     Purchase tax     Purchase tax     Purchase tax
                Calendar year                     credits,         credits,         credits,         credits,
                                                  proposal      alternative 1    alternative 2    alternative 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................................             6.7                7              4.8                4
2028........................................             9.9               11              6.7              6.1
2029........................................              14               14               13              7.7
2030........................................              18               20               14               13
2031........................................              22               23               19               21
2032........................................              27               29               24               27
2035........................................               0                0                0                0
2040........................................               0                0                0                0
2045........................................               0                0                0                0
2050........................................               0                0                0                0
2055........................................               0                0                0                0
PV3.........................................              86               92               71               68
PV7.........................................              74               79               60               58
EAV3........................................             4.5              4.8              3.7              3.6
EAV7........................................               6              6.4              4.9              4.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Table 169--Fuel Tax Transfers Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Fuel taxes,      Fuel taxes,      Fuel taxes,      Fuel taxes,
                Calendar year                     proposal      alternative 1    alternative 2    alternative 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................................            0.31             0.32             0.22             0.18
2028........................................            0.77             0.88             0.57             0.46
2029........................................             1.4              1.6              1.1             0.81
2030........................................             2.4              2.8              1.9              1.5
2031........................................             3.3              3.9              2.7              2.4
2032........................................             4.5              5.2              3.8              3.6
2035........................................               8                9                7              7.3
2040........................................              12               14               11               12
2045........................................              15               16               13               14
2050........................................              16               17               14               16

2055........................................              15               17               14               15
PV3.........................................             180              200              160              170
PV7.........................................              97              110               85               91
EAV3........................................             9.5               11              8.4                9
EAV7........................................             7.9              8.8                7              7.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C. U.S. Vehicle Sales Impacts

1. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales Impacts
    As discussed in Section IV.A of this Preamble, EPA used the OMEGA
model to analyze impacts of this proposal, including impacts on vehicle
sales. The OMEGA model accounts for interactions in producer and
consumer decisions in total sales and in the share of ICE and BEV
vehicles in the market. As in previous rulemakings, the sales impacts
are based on a set of assumptions and inputs, including assumptions
about the role of fuel consumption in vehicle purchase decisions, and
assumptions on consumers' demand elasticity.\779\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \779\ The demand elasticity is the percent change in quantity
associated with percent increase in price. For price, we use net
price, where net price is the difference in technology costs less an
estimate of the change in fuel costs over the number of years we
assume fuel costs are taken into account. BEV purchase incentives
from the IRA are also accounted for in the net consumer prices used
in OMEGA. See DRIA Chapter 2.6.8 for more information.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In OMEGA, the amount of fuel savings considered in the purchase
decisions is directly incorporated in the producer assumptions of how
many years of fuel savings consumers consider in their purchase
decision. In the 2021 rule, as well as in this proposed rule, EPA
assumed that LD vehicle buyers account for about 2.5 years of fuel
consumption in their purchase decision. However, as discussed in detail
in the 2021 rule,\780\ there is not a consensus around the role of fuel
consumption in vehicle purchase decisions. Greene et al. (2018)
provides a reference value of $1,150 for the value of reducing fuel
costs by $0.01/mile over the lifetime of an average vehicle; for
comparison, 2.5 years of fuel savings is only about 30 percent of that
value, or about $334. This $334 is within the large standard deviation
in Greene et al. (2018) for the willingness to pay to reduce fuel
costs, but it is far lower than both the mean of $1,880 (160 percent of
the reference value) and the median of $990 (85 percent of the
reference value) per one cent per mile in the paper. On the other hand,
the 2021 NAS report,\781\ citing the 2015 NAS report, observed that
automakers ``perceive that typical consumers would pay upfront for only
one to four years of fuel savings'' (pp. 9-10), which is within the
range of values identified in Greene et al. (2018) for consumer
response, but well below the median or mean. In other words, though
automakers seem to operate under a perception of consumer willingness
to pay for additional fuel economy that is not inconsistent with
estimates in the literature of how consumers actually behave, it does
appear possible that automakers do not fully account for how those
consumers actually behave. In comments on the 2021 rule, some
commenters suggested that new vehicle buyers care more about fuel
consumption than the use of 2.5 years suggests, and that EPA should
model automaker adoption of fuel-saving technologies based on
historical actions. As discussed in Section VIII.J and DRIA Chapter
4.4, we note that, historically, automakers did not provide fuel saving
technology to customers, even though it was proven to pay for itself in
short periods of time. However, EPA notes that the data, methods and
ideas discussed here are based on historical data and focus on ICE
vehicle sales. Automaker adoption of fuel-saving technologies and
consumer response to fuel savings, and the amount of fuel savings
considered in the purchase decision, may be different with electric
vehicles and in an era of high BEV sales. We request comment on data,
methods and perspectives on the role of fuel consumption in the vehicle
purchase decision.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \780\ 86 FR 74434, December 30, 2021, ``Revised 2023 and Later
Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards.''
    \781\ National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
2021. Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle
Fuel Economy--2025-2035. Washington, DC: The National Academies
Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26092.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Continuing the approach used in the final 2021 rule, EPA will be
using a demand elasticity for new LD vehicles of -0.4 based on a 2021
EPA peer reviewed report, which included a literature review on and
estimates of the effects of new vehicle price changes on the new
vehicle market.\782\ However, as noted in EPA's report and by public
commenters on the proposed 2021 rule, -0.4 appears to be the largest
estimate (in absolute value) for a long-run new vehicle demand
elasticity in recent studies. Further, EPA's report examining the
relationship between new and used vehicle markets shows that, for
plausible values reflecting that interaction, the new vehicle demand
elasticity varies from -0.15 to -0.4. A smaller elasticity does not
change the direction of sales effects, but it does reduce the magnitude
of the effects. We chose the larger value of this range for our
analysis because it will lead to more conservative estimates that are
still within the range estimated within the report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \782\ U.S. EPA. 2021. The Effects of New-Vehicle Price Changes
on New- and Used-Vehicle Markets and Scrappage. EPA-420-R-21-019.
https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=352754&Lab=OTAQ.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For this proposed rule, EPA is maintaining the previous assumptions
of 2.5 years of fuel savings and a new vehicle demand elasticity of -
0.4 for its modeling of LD sales impacts. These assumptions are applied
to the Proposal, as well as the more stringent (Alternative 1(-10)) and
less stringent (Alternative 2 (+10)) and Alternative 3 (linear phase-
in)) options as described in Section III.E.
    Under the Proposed scenario, there is a small change projected in
total new LD vehicle sales compared to sales under the No Action
scenario.\783\ See Table 170 for total new vehicle sales impacts under
the Proposed scenario. The table shows that sales decrease for two
years, increase for the next two years, and then decrease again. Though
the increase in the middle years may seem unexpected at first, as
technology costs are increasing, the reduction in average per vehicle
cost due to the 2.5 years of fuel cost savings incorporated

into the sales impact estimates offset the increase in the LD vehicle
technology costs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \783\ The No Action scenario consists of the 2021 rule standards
and IRA provisions as explained in Section IV.B.

                         Table 170--Total New LD Sales Impacts in the Proposed Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  No action               Proposed rule
                                                              --------------------------------------------------
                             Year                                                                 Change from no
                                                                 Total sales      Total sales      action  (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.........................................................      15,487,827       15,432,908       -54,919 (-
                                                                                0.35%)
2028.........................................................      15,637,207       15,616,676       -20,531 (-
                                                                                0.13%)
2029.........................................................      15,770,260       15,781,094   10,834 (0.07%)
2030.........................................................      15,807,049       15,814,296    7,247 (0.05%)
2031.........................................................      15,884,729       15,860,358       -24,370 (-
                                                                                0.15%)
2032.........................................................      15,880,160       15,834,010       -46,150 (-
                                                                                0.29%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 171 shows the total new vehicle sales impacts under the three
alternative scenarios. All three alternatives also show a very small
change in sales compared to the No Action scenario. The change is
largest in magnitude under the most stringent alternative (Alternative
1), with the largest results projected to be a decrease of less than
0.8 percent in 2032. Alternative 3 projects the smallest, in magnitude,
results in the first two years, with Alternative 2 projecting the
smallest, in magnitude, results in the last two years.

                                 Table 171--Total New LD Sales Impacts in Alternative 1, Alternative 2 and Alternative 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Alternative 1 (-10)               Alternative 2 (+10)             Alternative 3 (linear)
                                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Year                                         Change from no                    Change from no                    Change from no
                                                    Total sales       action (%)      Total sales       action (%)      Total sales       action (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027..............................................   15,429,939     -57,889 (-0.37%)   15,447,829     -39,998 (-0.26%)   15,476,391     -11,436 (-0.07%)
2028..............................................   15,582,224     -54,983 (-0.35%)   15,624,158     -13,048 (-0.08%)   15,643,941        6,734 (0.04%)
2029..............................................   15,690,100     -80,160 (-0.51%)   15,778,412        8,153 (0.05%)   15,795,393       25,133 (0.16%)
2030..............................................   15,732,702     -74,347 (-0.47%)   15,821,919       14,871 (0.09%)   15,823,563       16,514 (0.10%)
2031..............................................   15,774,869    -109,860 (-0.69%)   15,864,090     -20,639 (-0.13%)   15,857,727     -27,001 (-0.17%)
2032..............................................   15,758,885    -121,275 (-0.76%)   15,834,633     -45,527 (-0.29%)   15,818,292     -61,868 (-0.39%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Medium-Duty Sales Impacts
    The cited literature is focused on light-duty vehicles, which are
primarily purchased and used as personal vehicles by individuals and
households. The medium-duty vehicle market, in contrast, largely serves
commercial applications. The assumptions in our analysis of the LD
sales response are specific to that market, and do not necessarily
carry over to the MD vehicle market. Commercial vehicle owners purchase
vehicles based on the needs for their business, and we believe they are
less sensitive to changes in vehicle price than personal vehicle
owners.\784\ The elasticity of demand affects the sensitivity of
vehicle buyers to a change in the price of vehicles: The smaller the
elasticity, in absolute value, the smaller the estimated change in
sales due to a change in vehicle price. Therefore, as explained in
Chapter 4.4 of the DRIA, the estimates of a change in sales due to this
rule depend on the elasticity of demand assumptions. For this proposal,
we are assuming an elasticity of 0 for the MD vehicle sales impacts
estimates, and we are not projecting any differences in the number of
MD vehicles sold between the No Action and the Proposal. This
implicitly assumes that the buyers of MD vehicles are not going to
change purchase decisions if the price of the vehicle changes, all else
equal. In other words, as long as the characteristics of the vehicle do
not change, commercial buyers will still purchase the vehicle that fits
their needs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \784\ See DRIA Chapter 4.1.1 for more information.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We seek comment on our assumptions for both LD and MD vehicle sales
impacts.

D. Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Benefits

    EPA estimated the climate benefits for the final standards using
measures of the social cost of three GHGs: Carbon, methane, and nitrous
oxide. The social cost of each gas (i.e., the social cost of carbon
(SC-CO2), methane (SC-CH4), and nitrous oxide
(SC-N2O)) is the monetary value of the net harm to society
associated with a marginal increase in emissions in a given year, or
the benefit of avoiding that increase. Collectively, these values are
referenced as the ``social cost of greenhouse gases'' (SC-GHG). In
principle, SC-GHG includes the value of all climate change impacts,
including (but not limited to) changes in net agricultural
productivity, human health effects, property damage from increased
flood risk and natural disasters, disruption of energy systems, risk of
conflict, environmental migration, and the value of ecosystem services.
The SC-GHG therefore, reflects the societal value of reducing emissions
of the gas in question by one metric ton. EPA and other Federal
agencies began regularly incorporating SC-GHG estimates in their
benefit-cost analyses conducted under Executive Order (E.O.)

12866 \785\ since 2008, following a Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals
remand of a rule for failing to monetize the benefits of reducing
CO2 emissions in a rulemaking process.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \785\ Benefit-cost analyses have been an integral part of
executive branch rulemaking for decades. Presidents since the 1970s
have issued executive orders requiring agencies to conduct analysis
of the economic consequences of regulations as part of the
rulemaking development process. E.O. 12866, released in 1993 and
still in effect today, requires that for all regulatory actions that
are significant under 3(f)(1), an agency provide an assessment of
the potential costs and benefits of the regulatory action, and that
this assessment include a quantification of benefits and costs to
the extent feasible.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We estimate the global social benefits of CO2,
CH4, and N2O emission reductions expected from
the proposed rule using the SC-GHG estimates presented in the February
2021 Technical Support Document (TSD): Social Cost of Carbon, Methane,
and Nitrous Oxide Interim Estimates under E.O. 13990 (IWG 2021). These
SC-GHG estimates are interim values developed under E.O. 13990 for use
in benefit-cost analyses until updated estimates of the impacts of
climate change can be developed based on the best available climate
science and economics. We have evaluated the SC-GHG estimates in the
TSD and have determined that these estimates are appropriate for use in
estimating the global social benefits of CO2,
CH4, and N2O emission reductions expected from
this proposed rule. After considering the TSD, and the issues and
studies discussed therein, EPA finds that these estimates, while likely
an underestimate, are the best currently available SC-GHG estimates.
These SC-GHG estimates were developed over many years, using a
transparent process, peer-reviewed methodologies, the best science
available at the time of that process, and with input from the public.
As discussed in Chapter 10 of the DRIA, these interim SC-GHG estimates
have a number of limitations, including that the models used to produce
them do not include all of the important physical, ecological, and
economic impacts of climate change recognized in the climate-change
literature and that several modeling input assumptions are outdated. As
discussed in the February 2021 TSD, the Interagency Working Group on
the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) finds that, taken together,
the limitations suggest that these SC-GHG estimates likely
underestimate the damages from GHG emissions. The IWG is currently
working on a comprehensive update of the SC-GHG estimates (under E.O.
13990) taking into consideration recommendations from the National
Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, recent scientific
literature, public comments received on the February 2021 TSD and other
input from experts and diverse stakeholder groups. EPA is participating
in the IWG's work. In addition, while that process continues, EPA is
continuously reviewing developments in the scientific literature on the
SC-GHG, including more robust methodologies for estimating damages from
emissions, and looking for opportunities to further improve SC-GHG
estimation going forward. Most recently, EPA has developed a draft
updated SC-GHG methodology within a sensitivity analysis in the
regulatory impact analysis of EPA's November 2022 supplemental proposal
for oil and gas standards that is currently undergoing external peer
review and a public comment process. See Chapter 10 of the DRIA for
more discussion of this effort.
    We monetize benefits of the proposed standards and evaluate other
costs in part to enable a comparison of costs and benefits pursuant to
E.O. 12866, but we recognize there are benefits that we are currently
unable to fully quantify. EPA's practice has been to set standards to
achieve improved air quality consistent with CAA section 202, and not
to rely on cost-benefit calculations, with their uncertainties and
limitations, as identifying the appropriate standards. In setting
standards, we place weight on the emissions reductions the standards
are projected to achieve, and we present the monetized benefits here
and elsewhere as illustrative, taking into consideration their
substantial uncertainties and limitations.
    Table 172 through Table 175 show the benefits of reduced
CO2, CH4, N2O and GHG emissions,
respectively, and consequently the annual quantified benefits (i.e.,
total GHG benefits), for each of the four interim social cost of GHG
(SC-GHG) values estimated by the interagency working group. Table 176
through Table 179 show the same information for Alternative 1. Table
180 through Table 183 show the same information for Alternative 2, and
Table 184 through Table 187 show this information for Alternative 3.
See Chapter 10.4 of the DRIA for more on the application of SC-GHG
estimates.

Table 172--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CO2 Emissions Associated With the Proposal, Light-Duty and Medium-
                                                      Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................          0.1         0.34             0.5                     1
2028............................................         0.27         0.88             1.3                   2.6
2029............................................         0.51          1.6             2.4                     5
2030............................................         0.81          2.6             3.8                   7.8
2031............................................          1.2          3.8             5.5                    11
2032............................................          1.7          5.2             7.5                    16
2035............................................          3.5           10              15                    32
2040............................................          6.6           19              27                    59
2045............................................          9.9           27              38                    84
2050............................................           13           35              48                   110
2055............................................           15           37              52                   110
PV..............................................           82          330             500                  1000

EAV.............................................          5.4           17              24                    52
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

Table 173--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CH4 Emissions Associated With the Proposal, Light-Duty and Medium-
                                                      Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................     0.000022     0.000046        0.000059               0.00012
2028............................................     0.000068      0.00014         0.00018               0.00038
2029............................................      0.00015      0.00032         0.00041               0.00085
2030............................................      0.00026      0.00054         0.00069                0.0014
2031............................................      0.00042      0.00086          0.0011                0.0023
2032............................................      0.00063       0.0013          0.0016                0.0034
2035............................................       0.0017       0.0034          0.0043                 0.009
2040............................................       0.0046        0.009           0.011                 0.024
2045............................................       0.0086        0.016            0.02                 0.044
2050............................................        0.013        0.025            0.03                 0.066
2055............................................        0.015        0.027           0.033                  0.07
PV..............................................        0.067         0.19            0.26                  0.49
EAV.............................................       0.0044       0.0097           0.012                 0.026
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

Table 174--Climate Benefits From Reductions in N2O Emissions Associated With the Proposal, Light-Duty and Medium-
                                                      Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................      0.00094       0.0028          0.0041                0.0074
2028............................................       0.0021       0.0063          0.0091                 0.017
2029............................................       0.0039        0.012           0.017                  0.03
2030............................................       0.0061        0.018           0.026                 0.047
2031............................................       0.0091        0.026           0.038                  0.07
2032............................................        0.013        0.036           0.052                 0.096
2035............................................        0.026        0.072             0.1                  0.19
2040............................................        0.049         0.13            0.19                  0.35
2045............................................        0.073         0.19            0.26                  0.51
2050............................................        0.096         0.24            0.33                  0.64
2055............................................         0.11         0.27            0.37                  0.73
PV..............................................         0.61          2.3             3.5                   6.1
EAV.............................................         0.04         0.12            0.17                  0.32
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

Table 175--Climate Benefits From Reductions in GHG Emissions Associated With the Proposal, Light-Duty and Medium-
                                                      Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................          0.1         0.34             0.5                     1
2028............................................         0.27         0.88             1.3                   2.7
2029............................................         0.52          1.7             2.4                     5
2030............................................         0.82          2.6             3.8                   7.9
2031............................................          1.2          3.8             5.5                    12
2032............................................          1.7          5.3             7.6                    16
2035............................................          3.5           11              15                    32
2040............................................          6.7           19              27                    60
2045............................................           10           28              38                    85
2050............................................           13           35              48                   110
2055............................................           15           38              52                   110
PV..............................................           82          330             500                  1000
EAV.............................................          5.4           17              25                    52
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 176--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CO2 Emissions Associated With Alternative 1, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................         0.11         0.36            0.52                   1.1
2028............................................         0.31            1             1.5                     3
2029............................................         0.58          1.9             2.7                   5.6
2030............................................         0.95            3             4.4                   9.2
2031............................................          1.4          4.4             6.3                    13
2032............................................          1.9          5.9             8.6                    18
2035............................................          3.9           12              17                    36
2040............................................          7.4           21              30                    66
2045............................................           11           30              42                    93
2050............................................           14           38              53                   120
2055............................................           16           41              57                   120
PV..............................................           91          360             550                  1100
EAV.............................................            6           19              27                    58
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 177--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CH4 Emissions Associated With Alternative 1, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................     0.000023     0.000048        0.000062               0.00013
2028............................................     0.000065      0.00014         0.00018               0.00036
2029............................................      0.00014      0.00029         0.00037               0.00077
2030............................................      0.00024       0.0005         0.00065                0.0013
2031............................................      0.00041      0.00084          0.0011                0.0022
2032............................................      0.00063       0.0013          0.0016                0.0034
2035............................................       0.0018       0.0035          0.0045                0.0094
2040............................................       0.0049       0.0096           0.012                 0.026
2045............................................       0.0094        0.018           0.022                 0.047
2050............................................        0.015        0.027           0.033                 0.072
2055............................................        0.016         0.03           0.036                 0.077
PV..............................................        0.072          0.2            0.28                  0.53

EAV.............................................       0.0047         0.01           0.013                 0.028
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 178--Climate Benefits From Reductions in N2O Emissions Associated With Alternative 1, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................      0.00097       0.0029          0.0042                0.0077
2028............................................       0.0023       0.0068          0.0098                 0.018
2029............................................        0.004        0.012           0.017                 0.031
2030............................................       0.0065        0.019           0.027                  0.05
2031............................................       0.0096        0.028            0.04                 0.073
2032............................................        0.013        0.038           0.054                   0.1
2035............................................        0.027        0.076            0.11                   0.2
2040............................................        0.053         0.14             0.2                  0.38
2045............................................         0.08         0.21            0.29                  0.55
2050............................................          0.1         0.26            0.36                   0.7
2055............................................         0.12          0.3             0.4                  0.79
PV..............................................         0.66          2.5             3.7                   6.5
EAV.............................................        0.044         0.13            0.18                  0.34
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 179--Climate Benefits From Reductions in GHG Emissions Associated With Alternative 1, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                 Calendar  year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................         0.11         0.36            0.52                   1.1
2028............................................         0.31            1             1.5                     3
2029............................................         0.58          1.9             2.7                   5.6
2030............................................         0.96          3.1             4.4                   9.2
2031............................................          1.4          4.4             6.3                    13
2032............................................          1.9            6             8.6                    18
2035............................................          3.9           12              17                    36
2040............................................          7.5           22              30                    66
2045............................................           11           31              43                    94
2050............................................           14           38              53                   120
2055............................................           16           41              57                   120
PV..............................................           91          360             560                  1100
EAV.............................................            6           19              27                    58
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 180--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CO2 Emissions Associated With Alternative 2, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................        0.076         0.25            0.36                  0.74
2028............................................          0.2         0.64            0.94                   1.9
2029............................................         0.41          1.3             1.9                     4
2030............................................         0.65          2.1               3                   6.3
2031............................................         0.99          3.1             4.5                   9.4
2032............................................          1.4          4.4             6.3                    13
2035............................................            3          9.2              13                    28
2040............................................            6           17              24                    53
2045............................................          8.9           25              35                    76
2050............................................           12           31              43                    96
2055............................................           13           34              47                   100
PV..............................................           73          290             450                   890
EAV.............................................          4.8           15              22                    47
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 181--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CH4 Emissions Associated With Alternative 2, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................     0.000018     0.000038        0.000049                0.0001
2028............................................     0.000052      0.00011         0.00014               0.00029
2029............................................      0.00013      0.00027         0.00035               0.00072
2030............................................      0.00021      0.00044         0.00057                0.0012
2031............................................      0.00035      0.00072         0.00092                0.0019
2032............................................      0.00054       0.0011          0.0014                 0.003
2035............................................       0.0015        0.003          0.0038                0.0081
2040............................................       0.0042       0.0082            0.01                 0.022
2045............................................        0.008        0.015           0.019                  0.04
2050............................................        0.012        0.023           0.028                 0.061
2055............................................        0.014        0.025           0.031                 0.065
PV..............................................        0.061         0.17            0.24                  0.46
EAV.............................................        0.004       0.0089           0.011                 0.024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 182--Climate Benefits From Reductions in N2O Emissions Associated With Alternative 2, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................      0.00073       0.0022          0.0031                0.0057
2028............................................       0.0016       0.0047          0.0068                 0.012
2029............................................       0.0032       0.0093           0.013                 0.025
2030............................................        0.005        0.015           0.021                 0.038
2031............................................       0.0076        0.022           0.031                 0.058
2032............................................        0.011        0.031           0.044                 0.082
2035............................................        0.023        0.065           0.092                  0.17
2040............................................        0.046         0.12            0.17                  0.33
2045............................................        0.068         0.18            0.25                  0.47
2050............................................         0.09         0.22            0.31                   0.6
2055............................................         0.11         0.26            0.35                  0.68
PV..............................................         0.56          2.1             3.2                   5.6

EAV.............................................        0.037         0.11            0.16                  0.29
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 183--Climate Benefits From Reductions in GHG Emissions Associated With Alternative 2, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................        0.076         0.25            0.36                  0.75
2028............................................          0.2         0.65            0.95                     2
2029............................................         0.41          1.3             1.9                     4
2030............................................         0.66          2.1               3                   6.3
2031............................................         0.99          3.1             4.5                   9.5
2032............................................          1.4          4.4             6.4                    13
2035............................................          3.1          9.3              13                    28
2040............................................            6           17              25                    54
2045............................................            9           25              35                    77
2050............................................           12           32              44                    97
2055............................................           13           34              47                   100
PV..............................................           74          290             450                   900
EAV.............................................          4.9           15              22                    47
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 184--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CO2 Emissions Associated With Alternative 3, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................        0.061          0.2            0.29                   0.6
2028............................................         0.16         0.53            0.77                   1.6
2029............................................          0.3         0.97             1.4                   2.9
2030............................................         0.52          1.7             2.4                     5
2031............................................         0.88          2.8               4                   8.4
2032............................................          1.4          4.3             6.1                    13
2035............................................          3.2          9.6              14                    29
2040............................................          6.4           19              26                    57
2045............................................          9.8           27              38                    83
2050............................................           13           35              48                   110
2055............................................           15           37              52                   110
PV..............................................           79          320             480                   960
EAV.............................................          5.2           16              24                    50
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 185--Climate Benefits From Reductions in CH4 Emissions Associated With Alternative 3, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................      0.00002     0.000042        0.000054               0.00011
2028............................................     0.000055      0.00012         0.00015               0.00031
2029............................................      0.00011      0.00023          0.0003               0.00061
2030............................................      0.00019      0.00039          0.0005                 0.001
2031............................................      0.00032      0.00066         0.00085                0.0018
2032............................................      0.00051       0.0011          0.0013                0.0028
2035............................................       0.0015       0.0031          0.0039                0.0082
2040............................................       0.0044       0.0087           0.011                 0.023
2045............................................       0.0085        0.016            0.02                 0.043
2050............................................        0.013        0.025            0.03                 0.066
2055............................................        0.015        0.027           0.033                  0.07
PV..............................................        0.065         0.18            0.25                  0.49
EAV.............................................       0.0043       0.0095           0.012                 0.025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 186--Climate Benefits From Reductions in N2O Emissions Associated With Alternative 3, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................      0.00065       0.0019          0.0028                0.0051
2028............................................       0.0014       0.0043          0.0062                 0.011
2029............................................       0.0025       0.0075           0.011                  0.02
2030............................................       0.0042        0.012           0.018                 0.033
2031............................................       0.0071         0.02           0.029                 0.054
2032............................................        0.011        0.031           0.044                 0.081
2035............................................        0.024        0.067           0.095                  0.18
2040............................................        0.048         0.13            0.18                  0.35
2045............................................        0.073         0.19            0.26                   0.5
2050............................................        0.097         0.24            0.33                  0.65
2055............................................         0.11         0.28            0.37                  0.73
PV..............................................          0.6          2.2             3.4                   5.9
EAV.............................................        0.039         0.12            0.17                  0.31
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

   Table 187--Climate Benefits From Reductions in GHG Emissions Associated With Alternative 3, Light-Duty and
                                                   Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Discount rate and statistic
                  Calendar year                  ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   5% Average   3% Average   2.5% Average    3% 95th Percentile
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027............................................        0.062          0.2             0.3                  0.61
2028............................................         0.17         0.54            0.78                   1.6
2029............................................          0.3         0.98             1.4                   2.9
2030............................................         0.53          1.7             2.4                   5.1
2031............................................         0.89          2.8             4.1                   8.5
2032............................................          1.4          4.3             6.2                    13
2035............................................          3.2          9.7              14                    29
2040............................................          6.5           19              26                    58
2045............................................          9.9           27              38                    84
2050............................................           13           35              48                   110
2055............................................           15           38              52                   110
PV..............................................           80          320             490                   970

EAV.............................................          5.3           17              24                    51
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same
  discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHGs at 5, 3, 2.5 percent) is
  used to calculate the present value of SC-GHGs for internal consistency. The 95th percentile of estimates
  based on a 3 percent discount rate are included to provide information on potentially higher-than-expected
  economic impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate of the discount rate. Annual
  benefits shown are undiscounted values.

E. Criteria Pollutant Health and Environmental Benefits

    The light-duty passenger cars and light trucks and medium-duty
vehicles subject to the proposed standards are significant sources of
mobile source air pollution, including directly-emitted
PM2.5 as well as NOX and VOC emissions (both
precursors to ozone formation and secondarily-formed PM2.5).
The proposed program would reduce exhaust emissions of these pollutants
from the regulated vehicles, which would in turn reduce ambient
concentrations of ozone and PM2.5. Emissions from upstream
sources would likely increase in some cases (e.g., power plants) and
decrease in others (e.g., refineries). We project that in total, the
proposed standards would result in substantial net reductions of
emissions of pollutants like PM2.5, NOx and VOCs. Criteria
and toxic pollutant emissions changes attributable to the proposed
standards are presented in Section VII of this Preamble. Exposures to
ambient pollutants such as PM2.5 and ozone are linked to
adverse environmental and human health impacts, such as premature
deaths and non-fatal illnesses (as explained in Section II.C of this
Preamble). Reducing human exposure to these pollutants results in
significant and measurable health benefits.
    This section discusses the economic benefits from reductions in
adverse health and environmental impacts resulting from criteria
pollutant emission reductions that can be expected to occur as a result
of the proposed emission standards. When feasible, EPA conducts full-
scale photochemical air quality modeling to demonstrate how its
national mobile source regulatory actions affect ambient concentrations
of regional pollutants throughout the United States. The estimation of
the human health impacts of a regulatory action requires national-scale
photochemical air quality modeling to conduct a full-scale assessment
of PM2.5 and ozone-related health benefits.
    EPA conducted an illustrative air quality modeling analysis of a
regulatory scenario involving light- and medium-duty vehicle emission
reductions and corresponding changes in ``upstream'' emission sources
like EGU (electric generating unit) emissions and refinery emissions
(see DRIA Chapter 8). Decisions about the emissions and other elements
used in the air quality modeling were made early in the analytical
process for the proposed rulemaking. Accordingly, the air quality
analysis does not represent the proposal's regulatory scenario, nor
does it reflect the expected impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act
(IRA). Based on updated power sector modeling that incorporated
expected generation mix impacts of the IRA, we are projecting the IRA
will lead to a significantly cleaner power grid. Because the air
quality analysis does not account for these impacts on EGU emissions,
we instead used the OMEGA-based emissions analysis (see Preamble
Section VII.A) and benefit-per-ton (BPT) values to estimate the
criteria pollutant (PM2.5) health benefits of the proposed
standards.
    The BPT approach estimates the monetized economic value of
PM2.5-related emission reductions or increases (such as
direct PM, NOX, and SO2) due to implementation of
the proposed program. Similar to the SC-GHG approach for monetizing
reductions in GHGs, the BPT approach monetizes the health benefits of
avoiding one ton of PM2.5-related emissions from a
particular onroad mobile or upstream source. The value of health
benefits from reductions (or increases) in PM2.5 emissions
associated with this proposal were estimated by multiplying
PM2.5-related BPT values by the corresponding annual
reduction (or increase) in tons of directly-emitted PM2.5
and PM2.5 precursor emissions (NOx and SO2). As
explained in Chapter 7.4 in the DRIA, the PM2.5 BPT values
represent the monetized value of human health benefits, including
reductions in both premature mortality and morbidity.
    The mobile sector BPT estimates used in this proposal were
published in 2019, but were recently updated using the suite of
premature mortality and morbidity studies in use by EPA for the 2023
p.m. NAAQS Reconsideration Proposal.786 787 The upstream BPT
estimates used in this proposal were also recently updated.\788\ The
health benefits Technical Support Document (Benefits TSD) that
accompanied the 2023 p.m. NAAQS Proposal details the approach used to
estimate the PM2.5-related benefits reflected in these
BPTs.\789\ For more detailed information about the benefits analysis
conducted for this proposal, including the BPT unit values used in this
analysis, please refer to Chapter 7.4 of the DRIA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \786\ Wolfe, P.; Davidson, K.; Fulcher, C.; Fann, N.; Zawacki,
M.; Baker, K. R. 2019. Monetized Health Benefits Attributable to
Mobile Source Emission Reductions across the United States in 2025.
Sci. Total Environ. 650, 2490-2498. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.09.273.
    \787\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2022. PM
NAAQS Reconsideration Proposal RIA. EPA-HQ-OAR-2019-0587. December.
    \788\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2023.
Technical Support Document: Estimating the Benefit per Ton of
Reducing Directly-Emitted PM2.5, PM2.5
Precursors and Ozone Precursors from 21 Sectors. January.
    \789\ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2023.
Estimating PM2.5- and Ozone-Attributable Health Benefits.
Technical Support Document (TSD) for the PM NAAQS Reconsideration
Proposal RIA. EPA-HQ-OAR-2019-0587. January.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    A chief limitation to using PM2.5-related BPT values is
that they do not reflect benefits associated with reducing ambient
concentrations of ozone. The PM2.5-related BPT values also
do not capture the benefits associated with reductions in direct
exposure to NO2 and mobile source air toxics, nor do they
account for improved ecosystem effects or visibility. The estimated
benefits of this proposal would be larger if we were able to monetize
these unquantified benefits at this time.
    Table 188 presents the annual, undiscounted PM2.5-
related health

benefits estimated for the stream of years beginning with the first
year of rule implementation, 2027, through 2055 for the proposed
standards. Benefits are presented by source (onroad and upstream) and
are estimated using either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate to
account for avoided health outcomes that are expected to accrue over
more than a single year (the ``cessation'' lag between the change in PM
exposures and the total realization of changes in health effects).
Because premature mortality typically constitutes the vast majority of
monetized benefits in a PM2.5 benefits assessment, we
present benefits based on risk estimates reported from two different
long-term exposure studies using different cohorts to account for
uncertainty in the benefits associated with avoiding PM-related
premature deaths.790 ,791
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \790\ Wu, X, Braun, D, Schwartz, J, Kioumourtzoglou, M and
Dominici, F (2020). Evaluating the impact of long-term exposure to
fine particulate matter on mortality among the elderly. Science
advances 6(29): eaba5692.
    \791\ Pope III, CA, Lefler, JS, Ezzati, M, Higbee, JD, Marshall,
JD, Kim, S-Y, Bechle, M, Gilliat, KS, Vernon, SE and Robinson, AL
(2019). Mortality risk and fine particulate air pollution in a
large, representative cohort of US adults. Environmental health
perspectives 127(7): 077007.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The total present value of PM2.5-related benefits for
the proposed program between 2027 and 2055 (discounted back to 2027) is
$140 to $280 billion at a 3 percent discount rate and $63 to $130
billion at a 7 percent discount rate (2020 dollars).

   Table 188--Monetized PM2.5 Health Benefits of Onroad and Upstream Emissions Reductions Associated With the
                                      Proposal, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Onroad                     Upstream                 Total benefits
                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount
                                  rate          rate          rate          rate          rate          rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................    0.053-0.11     0.048-0.1   0.011-0.026    0.01-0.023    0.064-0.14    0.058-0.13
2028........................     0.13-0.28     0.12-0.25   0.039-0.088    0.035-0.08     0.17-0.37     0.15-0.33
2029........................     0.24-0.52     0.22-0.47    0.083-0.19    0.075-0.17     0.33-0.71     0.29-0.63
2030........................      0.65-1.3      0.58-1.2     0.15-0.33     0.14-0.29       0.8-1.7      0.72-1.5
2031........................         1-2.1      0.93-1.9     0.24-0.52     0.22-0.47       1.3-2.7       1.2-2.4
2032........................         1.4-3       1.3-2.7     0.36-0.77     0.33-0.69       1.8-3.7       1.6-3.4
2033........................       1.9-3.9       1.7-3.5      0.51-1.1     0.45-0.96       2.4-4.9       2.1-4.4
2034........................       2.3-4.8       2.1-4.3      0.67-1.4       0.6-1.3         3-6.2       2.7-5.6
2035........................       3.2-6.4       2.9-5.8        0.98-2      0.88-1.8       4.2-8.4       3.7-7.6
2036........................       3.7-7.4       3.3-6.6       1.2-2.4         1-2.2       4.8-9.8       4.3-8.8
2037........................       4.2-8.4       3.7-7.5       1.4-2.8       1.2-2.6        5.6-11          5-10
2038........................       4.7-9.4       4.2-8.5       1.6-3.3         1.5-3        6.3-13        5.6-11
2039........................        5.1-10       4.6-9.3       1.9-3.8       1.7-3.4          7-14        6.3-13
2040........................        6.3-13        5.7-11       2.4-4.8       2.1-4.3        8.7-17        7.8-16
2041........................        6.8-14        6.1-12       2.7-5.3       2.4-4.8        9.5-19        8.5-17
2042........................        7.3-14        6.6-13       2.9-5.8       2.6-5.2         10-20        9.2-18
2043........................        7.8-15          7-14       3.2-6.4       2.9-5.8         11-22        9.8-20
2044........................        8.1-16        7.3-14       3.4-6.9       3.1-6.2         12-23         10-21
2045........................        9.3-18        8.4-16       3.7-7.4       3.3-6.6         13-26         12-23
2046........................        9.7-19        8.7-17         4-7.9       3.6-7.1         14-27         12-24
2047........................         10-20          9-18       4.2-8.3       3.8-7.5         14-28         13-25
2048........................         10-20        9.2-18       4.3-8.6       3.9-7.7         15-29         13-26
2049........................         11-21        9.4-18       4.4-8.9           4-8         15-29         13-26
2050........................         12-22         10-20       4.6-9.1       4.1-8.2         16-31         14-28
2051........................         12-23         11-20       4.6-9.2       4.1-8.2         16-32         15-29
2052........................         12-23         11-21       4.6-9.2       4.1-8.3         16-32         15-29
2053........................         12-23         11-21       4.6-9.3       4.2-8.3         17-32         15-29
2054........................         12-23         11-21       4.6-9.3       4.2-8.3         17-32         15-29
2055........................         13-25         12-22       4.6-9.3       4.2-8.3         18-34         16-31
Present Value...............       100-200         46-91         39-79         17-35       140-280        63-130
Equivalent Annualized Value.        5.4-11       3.7-7.4       2.1-4.1       1.4-2.8        7.5-15        5.1-10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The range of benefits in this table reflect the range of premature mortality estimates derived from the
  Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and the NHIS study (Pope III et al., 2019). All benefits estimates are
  rounded to two significant figures. Annual benefit values presented here are not discounted. The present value
  of benefits is the total aggregated value of the series of discounted annual benefits that occur between 2027-
  2055 (in 2020 dollars) using either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate. The benefits associated with the
  standards presented here do not include the full complement of health and environmental benefits that, if
  quantified and monetized, would increase the total monetized benefits.

     Table 189--Monetized PM2.5 Health Benefits of Onroad and Upstream Emissions Reductions Associated With
                                    Alternative 1, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Onroad                     Upstream                 Total benefits
                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount
                                  rate          rate          rate          rate          rate          rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................    0.055-0.12     0.05-0.11   0.012-0.027   0.011-0.025    0.067-0.15     0.06-0.13
2028........................      0.14-0.3     0.13-0.27    0.048-0.11   0.044-0.098     0.19-0.41     0.17-0.37
2029........................     0.25-0.53     0.22-0.48     0.11-0.23    0.095-0.21     0.35-0.76     0.32-0.69

2030........................      0.66-1.4      0.59-1.2      0.2-0.42     0.18-0.38      0.85-1.8      0.77-1.6
2031........................         1-2.2      0.93-1.9     0.31-0.65     0.28-0.59       1.3-2.8       1.2-2.5
2032........................         1.4-3       1.3-2.7     0.44-0.94      0.4-0.84       1.9-3.9       1.7-3.5
2033........................       1.9-3.9       1.7-3.5      0.61-1.3      0.55-1.2       2.5-5.2       2.2-4.6
2034........................       2.3-4.8       2.1-4.3      0.78-1.7      0.71-1.5       3.1-6.5       2.8-5.8
2035........................       3.2-6.5       2.9-5.8       1.1-2.3         1-2.1       4.3-8.8       3.9-7.9
2036........................       3.7-7.4       3.3-6.7       1.3-2.7       1.2-2.5          5-10       4.5-9.1
2037........................       4.2-8.5       3.8-7.6       1.6-3.2       1.4-2.9        5.8-12        5.2-11
2038........................       4.7-9.5       4.2-8.6       1.8-3.7       1.6-3.4        6.5-13        5.9-12
2039........................        5.2-10       4.7-9.4       2.1-4.2       1.9-3.8        7.3-15        6.5-13
2040........................        6.4-13        5.7-11       2.7-5.3       2.4-4.8        9.1-18        8.1-16
2041........................        6.9-14        6.2-12         3-5.9       2.7-5.3        9.9-20        8.9-18
2042........................        7.4-15        6.6-13       3.2-6.5       2.9-5.8         11-21        9.5-19
2043........................        7.8-15          7-14       3.5-7.1       3.2-6.4         11-23         10-20
2044........................        8.2-16        7.4-15       3.8-7.6       3.4-6.8         12-24         11-21
2045........................        9.4-18        8.5-17       4.1-8.2       3.7-7.3         14-27         12-24
2046........................        9.8-19        8.8-17       4.4-8.8       3.9-7.9         14-28         13-25
2047........................         10-20        9.1-18       4.6-9.2       4.1-8.3         15-29         13-26
2048........................         10-20        9.3-18       4.8-9.5       4.3-8.6         15-30         14-27
2049........................         11-21        9.5-19       4.9-9.8       4.4-8.8         16-31         14-27
2050........................         12-23         11-20          5-10         4.5-9         17-33         15-29
2051........................         12-23         11-21          5-10       4.5-9.1         17-33         15-30
2052........................         12-23         11-21        5.1-10       4.6-9.1         17-33         15-30
2053........................         12-23         11-21        5.1-10       4.6-9.1         17-33         15-30
2054........................         12-23         11-21        5.1-10       4.6-9.1         17-34         15-30
2055........................         13-25         12-23        5.1-10       4.6-9.1         18-35         16-32
Present Value...............       100-210         46-92         44-88         19-39       150-290        66-130
Equivalent Annualized Value.        5.4-11       3.8-7.5       2.3-4.6       1.6-3.2        7.7-15        5.3-11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The range of benefits in this table reflect the range of premature mortality estimates derived from the
  Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and the NHIS study (Pope III et al., 2019). All benefits estimates are
  rounded to two significant figures. Annual benefit values presented here are not discounted. The present value
  of benefits is the total aggregated value of the series of discounted annual benefits that occur between 2027-
  2055 (in 2020 dollars) using either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate. The benefits associated with the
  standards presented here do not include the full complement of health and environmental benefits that, if
  quantified and monetized, would increase the total monetized benefits.

     Table 190--Monetized PM2.5 Health Benefits of Onroad and Upstream Emissions Reductions Associated With
                                    Alternative 2, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Onroad                     Upstream                 Total benefits
                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount
                                  rate          rate          rate          rate          rate          rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................   0.039-0.083   0.035-0.075  0.0083-0.019  0.0075-0.017     0.047-0.1   0.042-0.092
2028........................     0.094-0.2    0.084-0.18    0.031-0.07   0.028-0.063     0.13-0.27     0.11-0.24
2029........................     0.19-0.41     0.17-0.37    0.069-0.15    0.062-0.14     0.26-0.56     0.23-0.51
2030........................      0.59-1.2      0.53-1.1     0.12-0.27     0.11-0.24      0.71-1.5      0.64-1.3
2031........................        0.97-2      0.87-1.8      0.2-0.43     0.18-0.39       1.2-2.4       1.1-2.2
2032........................       1.4-2.8       1.2-2.5     0.31-0.65     0.28-0.59       1.7-3.5       1.5-3.1
2033........................       1.8-3.7       1.6-3.3     0.44-0.94      0.4-0.85       2.2-4.6         2-4.2
2034........................       2.2-4.6         2-4.2      0.59-1.2      0.53-1.1       2.8-5.9       2.5-5.3
2035........................       3.1-6.2       2.8-5.6      0.87-1.8      0.78-1.6           4-8       3.6-7.2
2036........................       3.6-7.2       3.2-6.5         1-2.1      0.92-1.9       4.6-9.3       4.1-8.4
2037........................       4.1-8.2       3.7-7.4       1.2-2.5       1.1-2.3        5.3-11       4.8-9.6
2038........................       4.6-9.2       4.1-8.3       1.4-2.9       1.3-2.6          6-12        5.4-11
2039........................        5.1-10       4.5-9.2       1.6-3.4         1.5-3        6.7-14          6-12
2040........................        6.2-12        5.6-11       2.1-4.3       1.9-3.8        8.4-17        7.5-15
2041........................        6.7-13        6.1-12       2.4-4.8       2.1-4.3        9.1-18        8.2-16
2042........................        7.2-14        6.5-13       2.6-5.2       2.4-4.7        9.8-19        8.8-18
2043........................        7.7-15        6.9-14       2.9-5.8       2.6-5.2         11-21        9.5-19
2044........................          8-16        7.2-14       3.1-6.2       2.8-5.6         11-22         10-20
2045........................        9.2-18        8.3-16       3.3-6.6           3-6         13-25         11-22
2046........................        9.6-19        8.6-17       3.6-7.1       3.2-6.4         13-26         12-23
2047........................        9.9-19        8.9-17       3.8-7.5       3.4-6.8         14-27         12-24
2048........................         10-20        9.1-18       3.9-7.8         3.5-7         14-28         13-25
2049........................         10-20        9.4-18           4-8       3.6-7.2         14-28         13-26

2050........................         11-22         10-20       4.1-8.3       3.7-7.4         16-30         14-27
2051........................         12-22         10-20       4.2-8.3       3.7-7.5         16-31         14-28
2052........................         12-23         11-20       4.2-8.3       3.8-7.5         16-31         14-28
2053........................         12-23         11-20       4.2-8.4       3.8-7.5         16-31         14-28
2054........................         12-23         11-21       4.2-8.4       3.8-7.5         16-31         14-28
2055........................         13-25         12-22       4.2-8.4       3.8-7.5         17-33         15-30
Present Value...............       100-200         45-89         35-71         15-31       140-270        61-120
Equivalent Annualized Value.        5.3-10       3.7-7.3       1.8-3.7       1.3-2.5        7.2-14       4.9-9.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The range of benefits in this table reflect the range of premature mortality estimates derived from the
  Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and the NHIS study (Pope III et al., 2019). All benefits estimates are
  rounded to two significant figures. Annual benefit values presented here are not discounted. The present value
  of benefits is the total aggregated value of the series of discounted annual benefits that occur between 2027-
  2055 (in 2020 dollars) using either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate. The benefits associated with the
  standards presented here do not include the full complement of health and environmental benefits that, if
  quantified and monetized, would increase the total monetized benefits.

     Table 191--Monetized PM2.5 Health Benefits of Onroad and Upstream Emissions Reductions Associated With
                                    Alternative 3, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Onroad                     Upstream                 Total Benefits
                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount   3% Discount   7% Discount
                                  rate          rate          rate          rate          rate          rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................   0.034-0.073   0.031-0.066  0.0057-0.013  0.0051-0.012    0.04-0.086   0.036-0.078
2028........................    0.085-0.18    0.076-0.16   0.023-0.052   0.021-0.047     0.11-0.23    0.097-0.21
2029........................     0.15-0.32     0.14-0.29    0.049-0.11   0.044-0.098      0.2-0.43     0.18-0.39
2030........................      0.54-1.1        0.48-1    0.098-0.21    0.088-0.19      0.63-1.3      0.57-1.2
2031........................      0.92-1.9      0.83-1.7     0.18-0.38     0.16-0.34       1.1-2.3      0.99-2.1
2032........................       1.3-2.7       1.2-2.4     0.29-0.62     0.26-0.56       1.6-3.3         1.4-3
2033........................       1.7-3.6       1.6-3.3     0.43-0.92     0.39-0.83       2.2-4.5         2-4.1
2034........................       2.2-4.6         2-4.1       0.6-1.3      0.54-1.1       2.8-5.8       2.5-5.2
2035........................         3-6.1       2.7-5.5       0.9-1.8      0.81-1.7         3.9-8       3.5-7.2
2036........................       3.5-7.1       3.2-6.4       1.1-2.2        0.97-2       4.6-9.3       4.1-8.4
2037........................         4-8.1       3.6-7.3       1.3-2.7       1.2-2.4        5.3-11       4.8-9.7
2038........................       4.6-9.2       4.1-8.3       1.5-3.1       1.4-2.8        6.1-12        5.5-11
2039........................          5-10       4.5-9.1       1.8-3.6       1.6-3.3        6.8-14        6.1-12
2040........................        6.2-12        5.6-11       2.3-4.6       2.1-4.1        8.5-17        7.7-15
2041........................        6.7-13          6-12       2.6-5.2       2.3-4.6        9.3-18        8.4-17
2042........................        7.2-14        6.5-13       2.8-5.7       2.6-5.1         10-20          9-18
2043........................        7.7-15        6.9-14       3.1-6.3       2.8-5.6         11-21        9.7-19
2044........................          8-16        7.2-14       3.4-6.8         3-6.1         11-23         10-20
2045........................        9.3-18        8.3-16       3.6-7.3       3.3-6.5         13-25         12-23
2046........................        9.7-19        8.7-17       3.9-7.8         3.5-7         14-27         12-24
2047........................        9.9-19        8.9-17       4.1-8.3       3.7-7.4         14-28         13-25
2048........................         10-20        9.2-18       4.3-8.6       3.9-7.7         15-29         13-26
2049........................         10-20        9.4-18       4.4-8.9           4-8         15-29         13-26
2050........................         12-22         10-20       4.6-9.1       4.1-8.2         16-31         14-28
2051........................         12-23         10-20       4.6-9.2       4.1-8.2         16-32         15-29
2052........................         12-23         11-21       4.6-9.2       4.1-8.3         16-32         15-29
2053........................         12-23         11-21       4.6-9.2       4.2-8.3         16-32         15-29
2054........................         12-23         11-21       4.6-9.3       4.2-8.3         17-32         15-29
2055........................         13-25         12-22       4.6-9.3       4.2-8.3         18-34         16-31
Present Value...............       100-200         45-89         38-77         17-33       140-280        62-120
Equivalent Annualized Value.        5.3-10       3.7-7.3           2-4       1.4-2.7        7.3-14          5-10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The range of benefits in this table reflect the range of premature mortality estimates derived from the
  Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and the NHIS study (Pope III et al., 2019). All benefits estimates are
  rounded to two significant figures. Annual benefit values presented here are not discounted. The present value
  of benefits is the total aggregated value of the series of discounted annual benefits that occur between 2027-
  2055 (in 2020 dollars) using either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate. The benefits associated with the
  standards presented here do not include the full complement of health and environmental benefits that, if
  quantified and monetized, would increase the total monetized benefits.

    This analysis includes many data sources that are each subject to
uncertainty, including projected emission inventories, air quality data
from models, population data, population estimates, health effect
estimates from epidemiology studies, economic data, and assumptions
regarding the future state of the world (i.e., regulations, technology,
and human behavior). When compounded, even small uncertainties can
greatly

influence the size of the total quantified benefits. There are also
inherent limitations associated with using the BPT approach. Despite
these uncertainties, we believe the criteria pollutant benefits
presented here are our best estimate of benefits absent air quality
modeling and we have confidence in the BPT approach and the
appropriateness of relying on BPT health estimates for this rulemaking.
Please refer to DRIA Chapter 7 for more information on the uncertainty
associated with the benefits presented here.

F. Other Impacts Including Maintenance and Repair

    We present here the estimated impacts associated with rebound
driving (drive value, congestion, noise) and the impacts on maintenance
and repair costs. Lastly, we briefly discuss the safety-related
impacts. More information on each of these topics is presented in
Chapter 4 and Chapter 9 of the DRIA.
1. Impacts Associated With Rebound Driving
    The rebound effect might occur when an increase in vehicle fuel
efficiency makes it possible for people to choose to drive more without
spending more because of the lower cost per mile of driving. Additional
driving can lead to costs and benefits that can be monetized. Note that
we do not estimate or further discuss the size of the rebound effect in
this Preamble. See DRIA Chapter 4 for that discussion. We request
comment on the assumptions described there. In this section, we take
the size of the rebound effect determined in the DRIA and highlight the
costs and benefits associated with additional driving.
i. Drive Value
    The increase in travel associated with the rebound effect produces
social and economic opportunities that become accessible with
additional travel. We estimate the economic benefits from increased
rebound-effect driving as the sum of the fuel costs paid to drive those
miles and the owner/operator surplus from the additional accessibility
that driving provides. These benefits are known as the drive value and
appear in Table 192.
    The fuel costs of the rebound miles driven are simply the number of
rebound miles multiplied by the cost per mile of driving them. The
economic value of the increased owner/operator surplus provided by
added driving is estimated as one half of the product of the fuel
savings per mile and rebound miles. Because fuel savings differ among
vehicles in response to standards, the value of benefits from increased
vehicle use differs by model year and varies across alternative
standards.

                      Table 192--Drive Value Benefits Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              [Billions of 2020 dollars] *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Drive value benefits,    Drive value benefits,    Drive value benefits,    Drive value benefits,
                    Calendar year                             proposal              alternative 1            alternative 2            alternative 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027................................................                   0.0011                   0.0019                   0.0026                  -0.0036
2028................................................                    0.024                    0.045                    0.028                   0.0068
2029................................................                    0.049                     0.12                    0.049                     0.02
2030................................................                    0.086                      0.2                    0.077                    0.041
2031................................................                     0.12                     0.28                     0.11                    0.063
2032................................................                     0.16                     0.37                     0.16                      0.1
2035................................................                     0.26                      0.5                     0.22                     0.21
2040................................................                     0.37                     0.51                     0.15                     0.26
2045................................................                     0.34                     0.37                    0.087                     0.22
2050................................................                     0.34                     0.29                     0.11                     0.21
2055................................................                     0.31                     0.22                     0.17                     0.21
PV3.................................................                      4.8                      6.5                      2.4                      3.2
PV7.................................................                      2.7                      3.9                      1.5                      1.8
EAV3................................................                     0.25                     0.34                     0.12                     0.17
EAV7................................................                     0.22                     0.32                     0.12                     0.15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Positive values represent benefits.

ii. Congestion and Noise
    In contrast to the benefits of additional driving are the costs
associated with that driving. Increased vehicle use associated with a
positive rebound effect also contributes to increased traffic
congestion and highway noise. Delays associated with congestion impose
higher costs on road users in the form of increased travel time and
operating expenses. Likewise, vehicles driving more miles on roadways
leads to more road noise from tires, wind, engines, and motors.
    As in past rulemakings (i.e., GHG 2010, 2012, and 2021), EPA relies
on estimates of congestion and noise costs developed by the Federal
Highway Administration's (FHWA's), specifically the ``Middle''
estimates for marginal congestion and noise costs, to estimate the
increased external costs caused by added driving due to the rebound
effect. FHWA's congestion and noise cost estimates focus on freeways.
EPA, however, applies the congestion cost to all vehicle miles, freeway
and non-freeway and including rebound miles to ensure that these costs
are not underestimated. Table 193 shows the values used as inputs to
OMEGA and adjusted within the model to the dollar basis used in the
analysis.
    Table 194 presents the congestion costs associated with the
proposal and each of the alternatives, while Table 195 shows the same
information for noise costs.

                              Table 193--Costs Associated With Congestion and Noise
                                         [2018 Dollars per vehicle mile]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Sedans/wagons     CUVs/SUVs/vans    Pickups
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Congestion.......................................................           0.0634             0.0634     0.0566
Noise............................................................           0.0009             0.0009     0.0009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        Table 194--Congestion Costs Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              [Billions of 2020 dollars] *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         Congestion costs,        Congestion costs,        Congestion costs,        Congestion costs,
                    Calendar year                             proposal              alternative 1            alternative 2            alternative 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027................................................                 -0.00023                  0.00063                  0.00072                  -0.0039
2028................................................                     0.01                    0.025                    0.012                 -0.00089
2029................................................                    0.022                    0.071                     0.02                   0.0042
2030................................................                    0.038                     0.11                     0.03                    0.012
2031................................................                    0.055                     0.17                    0.046                    0.023
2032................................................                    0.074                     0.21                    0.065                    0.039
2035................................................                     0.12                     0.28                    0.082                    0.088
2040................................................                     0.19                     0.27                    0.037                     0.12
2045................................................                     0.17                      0.2                   0.0096                     0.11
2050................................................                     0.17                     0.14                    0.028                     0.11
2055................................................                     0.16                     0.11                    0.064                     0.11
PV3.................................................                      2.3                      3.5                     0.74                      1.5
PV7.................................................                      1.3                      2.2                     0.48                     0.82
EAV3................................................                     0.12                     0.18                    0.039                    0.078
EAV7................................................                     0.11                     0.18                    0.039                    0.066
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Positive values represent costs.

                          Table 195--Noise Costs Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              [Billions of 2020 dollars] *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                Noise costs,             Noise costs,             Noise costs,
                    Calendar year                      Noise costs,  proposal       alternative 1            alternative 2            alternative 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027................................................                -0.000014               -0.0000017                0.0000041                -0.000059
2028................................................                  0.00014                  0.00037                  0.00018                -0.000006
2029................................................                  0.00033                   0.0011                  0.00031                 0.000076
2030................................................                  0.00059                   0.0018                  0.00047                   0.0002
2031................................................                  0.00087                   0.0026                  0.00073                  0.00038
2032................................................                   0.0012                   0.0033                    0.001                  0.00064
2035................................................                   0.0019                   0.0043                   0.0013                   0.0015
2040................................................                   0.0029                   0.0043                  0.00064                    0.002
2045................................................                   0.0027                   0.0031                  0.00021                   0.0017
2050................................................                   0.0027                   0.0022                  0.00048                   0.0017
2055................................................                   0.0025                   0.0017                    0.001                   0.0016
PV3.................................................                    0.037                    0.055                    0.012                    0.024
PV7.................................................                    0.021                    0.034                   0.0078                    0.013
EAV3................................................                   0.0019                   0.0028                  0.00064                   0.0012
EAV7................................................                   0.0017                   0.0027                  0.00064                   0.0011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Positive values represent costs.

2. Maintenance and Repair Costs
    Maintenance and repair (M&R) are large components of vehicle cost
of ownership for any vehicle. According to Edmunds, maintenance costs
consist of two types of maintenance: Scheduled and unscheduled.
Scheduled maintenance is the performance of factory-recommended items
at periodic mileage or calendar intervals. Unscheduled maintenance
includes wheel alignment and the replacement of items such as the
battery, brakes, headlights, hoses, exhaust system parts, taillight/
turn signal bulbs, tires, and wiper blades/inserts.\792\ Repairs, in
contrast, are done to fix malfunctioning parts that inhibit the use of
the vehicle. The differentiation between the items that are included in
unscheduled maintenance versus repairs is likely arbitrary, but the
items considered repairs seem to follow the systems that are covered in
vehicle comprehensive (i.e., ``bumper-to-bumper'') warranties offered
by automakers, which exclude common ``wear'' items like tires, brakes,
and starter batteries.\793\
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    \792\ Edmunds, ``Edmunds.com/tco.html,'' Edmunds, [Online].
Available: Edmunds.com/tco.html. [Accessed 24 February 2022].
    \793\ D. Muller, ``Warranties Defined: The Truth behind the
Promises,'' Car and Driver, 29 May 2017.
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    To estimate maintenance and repair costs, we have used the data
gathered and summarized by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in their
evaluation of the total cost of ownership for vehicles of various sizes
and powertrains.\794\
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    \794\ ``Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for
Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains, ANL/ESD-21/
4,'' Argonne National Laboratory, Energy Systems Division, April
2021.

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i. Maintenance Costs