TSD-1f

Future Year Emissions Inventory for

8-h OTC Ozone Modeling

Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Research

Division of Air Resources

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation

Albany, NY 12233

February 22, 2007

Following the designation of an area as non-attainment for the criteria
pollutant Ozone, the Clean Air Act requires submission of an
implementation plan, commonly referred to as State Implementation Plan
(SIP), demonstrating as to how that area will be meeting the NAAQS in
the time period established by the Act. Several areas of the OTR were
designated as being in nonattainment for 8-hr ozone (see   HYPERLINK
"http://www.epa.gov/ozonedesignations/"
http://www.epa.gov/ozonedesignations/ ) with a maximum attainment date
of June 2009 and June 2010. However, given that ozone precursors also
contribute to PM2.5 and other logistics, it was recommended and agreed
by the member states that the future year for demonstrating attainment
would be 2009. Therefore the OTR states initiated the development of
emissions inventories reflecting growth and control from 2002 to 2009 as
well as for 2012 and 2018. The 2018 inventory was in response to the
need for submission of regional haze SIP, and the 2012 as a next step in
the event that attainment for ozone was not feasible in 2009.

Future year emissions inventories within the OTR

The OTR states through MANE-VU contracted MACTEC Federal Programs
(called Contractor) develop the 2009, 2012 and 2018 inventories based
upon 2002 inventories that the states had previously developed for use
in the base year model work. The Contractor in consultation with the
states developed the necessary growth and control factors and applied to
the 2002 inventory. It should be noted that emissions for mobile sources
and the electric energy generating units (EGUs) was not part of the
Contractor’s effort. The states provided VADEQ and NESCAUM appropriate
MOBILE 6 input files along with the projected VMTs, which coupled with
the hourly gridded temperature information was used to generate mobile
source emissions. As for the emissions from the EGU sector, the
inter-RPO work group utilized the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to
develop the state and unit-level emissions. Details on these topics can
be found in MACTEC (2007) for non-EGU sectors and in ICF (2005a, 2005b)
for the EGU sector. These inventories are identified as 2009 on the way
(2009OTW), since they reflect all emission control measures that were
promulgated or would become effective on or before 2009.

In addition to these OTW inventories, states have also requested the
development of what is termed as beyond on the way (BOTW) inventories
for 2009, 2012, and 2018. These inventories are to be based on
additional OTC model rules, which would result in reduction in emissions
from specific source categories. Details on the development of these
controls and the corresponding inventories can be found in MACTEC
(2007).

Future year emission inventories outside the OTR

MANE-VU obtained inventories for 2009OTW and 2018OTW as part of the
inter-RPO workgroup. However, only MRPO provided emissions for 2012OTW.
For the VISTAS region, 2012 emissions were obtained by interpolating
area, nonroad, and non-EGU emissions between 2009 and 2018. For mobile
sources, VMT were interpolated between 2009 and 2018 and the 2012
emissions were calculated with MOBILE6 using these interpolated VMT and
2012 emission factors. For the CENRAP region, no 2012 emissions were
generated, and therefore the 2009 emissions were used in the 2012 CMAQ
simulation.

Canadian Emissions

In the case of Canadian emissions, 2010 and 2020 area, non-road, and
mobile source emissions were obtained from USEPA (  HYPERLINK
"ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/canada_2000inventory/"
ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/canada_2000inventory/ ).

Primary PM2.5 and PM10 emissions for the SCCs listed in   HYPERLINK
"http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/invent/tf_scc_list2002nei_v2.xls"
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/invent/tf_scc_list2002nei_v2.xls  were
divided by a factor of 4 to account for the fugitive dust transport
fraction correction. EGU point source emissions for 2010 and 2020 were
obtained from Environment Canada (Bloomer, 2006), while non-EGU point
source emissions were assumed to be the same as those developed for 2002
and described elsewhere (see TSD-1c). The 2010 inventories were used in
preparing CMAQ input files for the 2009OTW, 2009BOTW, and 2012BOTW
scenarios.

Emissions processing – Application of SMOKE

The 2009OTW, 2009BOTW, and 2012 BOTW inventories were processed by VADEQ
and NYSDEC using a template similar to that was used for processing 2002
base year emissions (see TSD-1d, TSD-1j) for the 12 km domain. In
particular, all gridding and speciation profiles and cross-reference
files as well as all temporal allocation profiles and cross-reference
files used in the 2002 processing were also used for future year
processing.  For each day, the following files were prepared:

2009OTW:

MANE-VU

2009 OTW V3 area source (VADEQ)

2009 V3 nonroad source (VADEQ)

2009 mobile source (NYSDEC)

2009 OTW V3 non-EGU point source (VADEQ)

2009 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (VADEQ)

2009 EGU point source, IPM2.1.9. non-fossil fuel units (VADEQ)

VISTAS

2009 BaseG area source (VADEQ)

2009 BaseG nonroad source (VADEQ)

2009 BaseG non-EGU point source (VADEQ)

2009 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (incl. post-IPM adjustments) (VADEQ)

2009 BaseG low-level fires (VADEQ)

2009 BaseG elevated source fires (VADEQ)

MRPO

2009 BaseK area source (NYSDEC)

2009 BaseK area source NH3/dust (NYSDEC)

2009 BaseK nonroad source (NYSDEC)

2009 non-EGU point source (VADEQ)

2009 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (incl. post-IPM adjustments) (VADEQ)

CENRAP

2009 BaseB area source (VADEQ)

2009 BaseB nonroad source (VADEQ)

2009 non-EGU point source (VADEQ)

2009 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (VADEQ)

VISTAS/MRPO/CENRAP (“non-MANE-VU RPOs”)

2009 mobile sources for all non-MANE-VU RPOs as implemented in VISTAS
2009 BaseG processing (VADEQ)

Canada

2010 area sources (NYSDEC)

2010 nonroad sources (NYSDEC)

2010 mobile sources (NYSDEC)

point sources (2002 non-EGU point sources; 2010 EGU point sources from
IPM) (NYSDEC)

Biogenics

Same as for 2002 base case, calculated with hourly MM5 meteorological
fields for 2002 (NYSDEC)

2009 BOTW:

As above for 2009 OTW, with the following two exceptions:

MANE-VU

2009 BOTW V3 area source (NYSDEC)

2009 BOTW V3 non-EGU point source (NYSDEC)

2012 BOTW:

MANE-VU

2012 OTW V3 area source (NYSDEC)

2012 V3 nonroad source (NYSDEC)

2012 mobile source (NYSDEC)

2012 OTW V3 non-EGU point source (NYSDEC)

2012 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (NYSDEC)

2009 EGU point source, IPM2.1.9. non-fossil fuel units (VADEQ)

VISTAS

2012 BaseG area source (interpolated between 2009 BaseG and 2018 BaseG)
(NYSDEC)

2012 BaseG nonroad source (interpolated between 2009 BaseG and 2018
BaseG) (NYSDEC)

2012 BaseG mobile source (interpolated VMT between 2009 BaseG and 2018
BaseG) (NYSDEC)

2012 BaseG non-EGU point source (interpolated between 2009 BaseG and
2018 BaseG) (NYSDEC)

2012 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (incl. post-IPM adjustments) (NYSDEC)

2009 BaseG low-level fires (VADEQ)

2009 BaseG elevated source fires (VADEQ)

MRPO

2012 BaseK area source (NYSDEC)

2012 BaseK area source NH3/dust (NYSDEC)

2012 BaseK nonroad source (NYSDEC)

2012 BaseK nonroad source (NYSDEC)

2012 non-EGU point source (NYSDEC)

2012 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (incl. post-IPM adjustments) (NYSDEC)

CENRAP

2009 BaseB area source (VADEQ)

2009 BaseB nonroad source (VADEQ)

2009 mobile source (based on VISTAS 2009 BaseG processing) (NYSDEC)

2009 non-EGU point source (VADEQ)

2009 IPM2.1.9. EGU point source (VADEQ)

Canada

2010 area sources (NYSDEC)

2010 nonroad sources (NYSDEC)

2010 mobile sources (NYSDEC)

point sources (2002 non-EGU point sources; 2010 EGU point sources from
IPM) (NYSDEC)

Biogenics

Same as for 2002 base case, calculated with hourly MM5 meteorological
fields for 2002

References

ICF (2005a) IPM documentation for VISTAS IPM run –e-mail and other
communications. Gopal Sistla (  HYPERLINK
<EMAIL_ADDRESS><EMAIL_ADDRESS>)

ICF (2005b) Future Year Electricity Generating Sector Emission Inventory
Development Using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) in Support of
Fine Particulate Mass and Visibility Modeling in the VISTAS and Midwest
RPO Regions (Final Report) Prepared by ICF Resources, L.L.C., 9300 Lee
Highway, Fairfax,VA.

MACTEC (2007) Development of Emission Projection for 2009, 2012, and
2018 for nonEGU point, area, and nonroad sources in the MANE-VU region.
 HYPERLINK "http://www.marama.org/reports"  www.marama.org/reports

Bloomer, Bryan (2006)   HYPERLINK<EMAIL_ADDRESS><EMAIL_ADDRESS>Personal communication to Gopal Sistla (
 HYPERLINK<EMAIL_ADDRESS><EMAIL_ADDRESS>)

TSD-1c (2006) Emissions Processing for 2002 OTC Regional and Urban 12km
Base year simulation

TSD-1d (2006) 8-h Ozone Modeling using the SMOKE/CMAQ system

TSD-1j (2007) Emission processing for OTC 2009 OTW/OB 12km CMAQ
Simulations

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