8,607
                                                                         11,139
                                                                          1,601
                                                                         84,529
North Carolina
                                                                         16,967
                                                                         12,665
                                                                         49,551
                                                                          6,272
                                                                          8,939
                                                                          9,870
                                                                        104,264
North Dakota
                                                                          6,397
                                                                            598
                                                                         41,504
                                                                          4,552
                                                                            976
                                                                            934
                                                                         54,962
Ohio
                                                                         53,572
                                                                         12,847
                                                                         52,348
                                                                          9,847
                                                                         11,785
                                                                            316
                                                                        140,715
Oklahoma
                                                                          1,411
                                                                          6,246
                                                                         90,047
                                                                          3,765
                                                                          4,559
                                                                          6,644
                                                                        112,672
Oregon
                                                                            412
                                                                          8,852
                                                                         58,145
                                                                          3,741
                                                                          3,375
                                                                         65,350
                                                                        139,874
Pennsylvania
                                                                         55,547
                                                                         16,263
                                                                         44,607
                                                                          7,565
                                                                         11,058
                                                                            454
                                                                        135,494
Rhode Island
                                                                             10
                                                                            256
                                                                          1,289
                                                                            394
                                                                            577
                                                                             14
                                                                          2,540
South Carolina
                                                                         14,455
                                                                          4,779
                                                                         26,598
                                                                          3,491
                                                                          5,061
                                                                          9,163
                                                                         63,548
South Dakota
                                                                            390
                                                                          2,982
                                                                         33,678
                                                                          2,910
                                                                          1,056
                                                                          7,062
                                                                         48,079
Tennessee
                                                                         12,856
                                                                         21,912
                                                                         32,563
                                                                          5,072
                                                                          8,514
                                                                          3,934
                                                                         84,851
Texas
                                                                         21,464
                                                                         37,563
                                                                        194,036
                                                                         21,361
                                                                         29,859
                                                                         21,578
                                                                        325,861
Tribal
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,569
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                          1,569
Utah
                                                                          5,055
                                                                          3,595
                                                                         14,761
                                                                          1,627
                                                                          2,703
                                                                         27,412
                                                                         55,153
Vermont
                                                                             37
                                                                            337
                                                                          6,943
                                                                            479
                                                                            605
                                                                            696
                                                                          9,098
Virginia
                                                                         12,357
                                                                         11,455
                                                                         38,140
                                                                          5,968
                                                                          6,661
                                                                          5,659
                                                                         80,241
Washington
                                                                          2,396
                                                                          4,618
                                                                         45,599
                                                                          6,697
                                                                          6,721
                                                                          4,487
                                                                         70,519
West Virginia
                                                                         26,377
                                                                          5,154
                                                                         14,778
                                                                          1,702
                                                                          1,930
                                                                          3,050
                                                                         52,991
Wisconsin
                                                                          5,233
                                                                          7,967
                                                                         37,277
                                                                          6,083
                                                                          6,783
                                                                            994
                                                                         64,337
Wyoming
                                                                          8,068
                                                                         10,298
                                                                         31,645
                                                                          1,455
                                                                          1,103
                                                                         15,686
                                                                         68,254
Total
                                                                        496,877
                                                                        433,346
                                                                      2,110,298
                                                                        268,745
                                                                        301,073
                                                                        684,035
                                                                      4,294,373
VOC Speciation Changes that Represent Fuel Changes
A significant detail that is different in each of the MATS modeling cases than in the 2005v4.2 emissions modeling is the VOC speciation profiles used to split total VOC emissions into the VOC model species needed for CMAQ.  In this section, we summarize the various speciation profile information used in configuring the various cases.

A major change between the 2005v4.2 platform and the MATS base and future modeling is the integration of ethanol for key sectors and specific inventories.  In the previous platform, the inventories for specific sources had benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde and/or methanol (BAFM).  These emissions would be integrated, namely their emissions would come from the inventory not from speciating VOC.  To prevent double counting, BAFM would be removed from VOC, leaving the remainder (NONHAPVOC) to be speciated to other components (i.e. non-BAFM species).  See section <IP_ADDRESS> of the 2005v4 platform for more details ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_07jul2010.pdf.  In the MATS modeling, if ethanol was present in the inventories, it would also be integrated.  To differentiate when a source was integrating BAFM versus EBAFM (ethanol in addition to BAFM), the speciation profiles is referred to as an "E-profile", for example pre-Tier 2 vehicles E10 gasoline exhaust speciation profile 8751 versus 8751E.  For the onroad sector, ethanol is integrated for all emissions from gasoline vehicles.  For the nonpt sector, ethanol is integrated for refueling and portable fuel containers (PFCs).  In the future-year case, the nonpt sector includes a cellulosic corn ethanol and biodiesel inventory (SCC 30125010) in which ethanol is integrated.  For fuel distribution operations associated with the bulk-plant-to-pump (btp) distribution, ethanol is speciated from VOC because the nonpoint inventories do not include ethanol specifically.

The onroad sector has some additional changes to VOC speciation.  Instead of speciating VOC, SMOKE-MOVES uses TOG instead of VOC.  Therefore, SMOKE does not need to convert VOC to TOG before creating NONHAPTOG and performing additional speciation. A second change in VOC speciation is the differentiation of a new mode.  In previous platforms, onroad mobile emissions were divided into exhaust and evaporative modes.  For the MATS base and future years, gasoline vehicle's evaporative mode is further divided into permeation specific emissions and evaporative.  Similar to evaporative and exhaust profiles, these profiles change between the base and future year cases.  Additional updates include headspace vapor speciation utilizes a combination of the E10 headspace vapor profile and E0 headspace vapor profile as opposed to using solely E0 for 2005, and a new Heavy Duty Diesel vehicle exhaust mode profile for pre-2007 model year (MY) vehicles that replaces an older 2004-vintage medium-duty diesel profile.  See Table 3-1 for more details.

The VOC speciation approach is customized to account for the impact of fuel changes in the future year case.  These changes affect the onroad sector, the nonroad sector, and parts of the nonpt and ptnonipm sectors.  These fuel changes and vehicle changes are implemented by using different VOC profiles and combination of profiles between the base and future cases.  The speciation changes from fuels in the nonpt sector are for refueling, portable fuel containers (PFCs), and fuel distribution operations associated with the bulk-plant-to-pump (btp) distribution.  The speciation changes from fuels in the ptnonipm sector include btp distribution operations inventoried as point sources.  Refinery to bulk terminal (rbt) fuel distribution speciation does not change across the modeling cases because this is considered upstream from the introduction of ethanol into the fuel.  Mapping of fuel distribution SCCs to btp and rbt emissions categories can be found in Appendix A of the revised annual Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document (EPA Report No. 420-R-10-005, January 2010, http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420r10005.pdf).

Table 3-1 summarizes the different profiles utilized for the fuel-related sources in each of the sectors for 2005 and the future year cases.  A comparison of the 2005v4.2 platform with the MATS 2005 case is also included. Appendix A lists ancillary input data set names used for MATS emissions.

Table 3-1.  Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases
Category
                                   2005v4.2
                                   2005 MATS
                              2017 MATS reference
Onroad Gasoline

Exhaust
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO

                                                                           8750
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust
                                                                          8750E
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust
                                                                          8751E
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust

                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust
                                                                          8751E
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust
                                                                          8757E
Tier 2 E10 Exhaust

                                                                          8758E
Tier 2 E15 Exhaust
Evaporative
                                    COMBO
                      COMBO (All evap except permeation)
                      COMBO (All evap except permeation)

                                                                           8753
E0 Evap
                                                                          8753E
E0 Evap
                                                                          8754E
E10 Evap

                                                                           8754
E10 Evap
                                                                          8754E
E10 Evap
                                                                          8872E
E15 Evap

                            COMBO (Permeation evap)
                            COMBO (Permeation evap)

                                                                          8766E
E0 evap perm
                                                                          8769E
E10 evap perm

                                                                          8769E
E10 evap perm
                                                                          8770E
E15 evap perm
Refueling
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO

                                                                          8869E
E0 Headspace
                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace

                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace
                                                                          8871E
E15 Headspace
Onroad Diesel

Exhaust
                                                                           4674
2004 MDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
                                                                          877T3
Pre & Post 2007 MY HDD exhaust

                        Weighted 8774 and 8775 profiles
Evaporative
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
Refuel
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
Nonroad Gasoline

Exhaust
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO
                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust

                                                                           8750
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust
                                                                           8750
Pre-Tier 2 E0 exhaust

                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust
                                                                           8751
Pre-Tier 2 E10 exhaust

Evaporative
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO
                                                                           8754
E10 Evap

                                                                           8753
E0 evap
                                                                           8753
E0 evap

                                                                           8754
E10 evap
                                                                           8754
E10 evap

Refueling
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace

                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace

                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace

Nonroad Diesel

Exhaust
                                                                           4674
2004 MDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
Evaporative
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
Refueling
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
                                                                           4547
Diesel Headspace
PFC
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace

                                                                          8869E
E0 Headspace

                                                                          8870E
E10 Headspace

Aircraft
                                                                           5565
Aircraft Exhaust
                                                                          5565*
Aircraft Exhaust
                                                                          5565*
Aircraft Exhaust

* Updated version in SPECIATE 4.3
* Updated version in SPECIATE 4.3
Locomotives
                                                                           4674
2004 MDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
                                                                           8774
Pre-2007 MY HDD exhaust
Marine
                                                                           2480
Ship Channel Downwind
                                                                           2480
Ship Channel Downwind
                                                                           2480
Ship Channel Downwind
BTP
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                     COMBO
                                     COMBO

                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace
                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace

                                                                           8870
E10 Headspace
                                                                           8871
E15 Headspace
RBT/BPS
                                                                           8762
E0 Headspace composite
                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace
                                                                           8869
E0 Headspace
Ethanol Plants
                                                                           1188
fermentation process
                                                                           8776
Ethanol Fuel Prod
                                                                           8776
Ethanol Fuel Prod[a]

                                                                          8776E
Ethanol Fuel Prod[b]

[a] corn ethanol and  biodiesel ptnonipm

[b] cellulosic ethanol & cellulosic diesel nonpt

2017 Reference Case
The 2017 reference case represents the future, including the implementation of emissions impacts of the fuel volumes mandated by the 2005 EPAct and 2007 EISA and finalized in the RFS2 program.  The reference case includes MSAT2 and LDGHG but does not include HDGHG impacts.  The 2017 reference case assumes 21.6 billion gallons of renewable fuels (24 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons due to volume increases of ethanol), with 17.8 billion gallons of E10 and E15, 1.5 billion gallons of biodiesel, 0.2 billion gallons of renewable diesel, and 2.2 billion gallons of cellulosic diesel. The fuel changes required upstream emissions estimates and adjustments in addition to the downstream changes to onroad and nonroad mobile source emissions.  For nonroad mobile sources, onroad mobile including refueling sources, OTAQ-generated emissions were provided to reflect the reference case fuels.

The 2017 reference case uses many of the same growth and control assumptions as those for the Final Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), because other than onroad mobile, nonroad mobile, onroad refueling, PFC, and ethanol plant sources, both MATS and CSAPR use the same 2005v4.2-based emissions inventories.  There are some differences between the 2012 and 2014 base case projections in CSAPR and the 2017 reference case for MATS:

   1) 2017 includes some additional controls that were promulgated after 2014, (e.g., post-2014 consent decrees and fuel sulfur rules in a couple of states).
   2) Growth factors for several sources are year-specific; so while the methodology is the same as CSAPR, the future year emissions estimates differ (e.g., oil and gas in a couple states, residential wood combustion).
   3) Onroad refueling uses year and scenario-specific (i.e., reference) MOVES emissions for all MATS modeling, rather than NEI emissions.
   4) There is a new dataset of ethanol plants that replace a limited set of NEI ethanol plants in 2005v4.2-based CSAPR 2012 and 2014 projections.  These MATS reference case emissions are the same for the 2005 and 2017 base case.
   5) Minor errors identified after CSAPR modeling was complete were fixed (e.g, we include agricultural dust projections for the couple of states that provided point source farms).

The remainder of Section 4 is very similar to Section 4 in the CSAPR emissions modeling TSD, available from ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf, but with the updates described above.

The future case projection methodologies vary by sector.  For EGU emissions (ptipm sector), the emissions reflect state rules and federal consent decrees through December 1, 2010.  For onroad mobile sources, all national measures for which data were available at the time of modeling have been included.  The future case scenarios reflect projected economic changes and fuel usage for EGU and mobile sectors.  For nonEGU point (ptnonipm sector) and nonpoint stationary sources (nonpt, ag, and afdust sectors), local control programs that might have been necessary for areas to attain the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS annual standard, 2006 PM NAAQS (24-hour) standard, and the 1997 ozone NAAQS are generally not included in the future base-case projections for most states.  One exception are some NOX and VOC reductions associated with the New York, Virginia, and Connecticut State Implementation Plans (SIP), which were added as part of the comments received from the CSAPR and a larger effort to start including more local control information on stationary non-EGU sources; this is described further in Section 4.2.  The following bullets summarize the projection methods used for sources in the various sectors, while additional details and data sources are given in Table 4-1.
   * IPM sector (ptipm):  Unit-specific estimates from IPM, version 4.10.
   * Non-IPM sector (ptnonipm):  Projection factors and percent reductions reflect CSAPR (Transport Rule) comments and emission reductions due to control programs, plant closures, consent decrees and settlements, and 1997 and 2001 ozone State Implementation Plans in NY, CT, and VA.  We also used projection approaches for point-source livestock, and aircraft that are consistent with projections used for the sectors that contain the bulk of these emissions.  Terminal area forecast (TAF) data aggregated to the national level were used for aircraft to account for projected changes in landing/takeoff activity.  Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.
   * Average fires sector (avefire):  No growth or control.
   * Agricultural sector (ag):  Projection factors for livestock estimates based on expected changes in animal population from 2005 Department of Agriculture data; no growth or control for NH3 emissions from fertilizer application.
   * Area fugitive dust sector (afdust):  Projection factors for dust categories related to livestock estimates based on expected changes in animal population; no growth or control for other categories in this sector.
   * Remaining Nonpoint sector (nonpt):  Projection factors that implement CSAPR Proposal comments and reflect emission reductions due to control programs.  Residential wood combustion projections based on growth in lower-emitting stoves and a reduction in higher emitting stoves.  PFC projection factors reflecting impact of the final Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) rule and include ethanol emissions.  Gasoline stage II onroad refueling emissions obtained directly from MOVES.  Oil and gas projection estimates are provided for the non-California Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states as well as Oklahoma and Texas.  Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.
   * Nonroad mobile sector (nonroad):  Same version of the NONROAD2008a, including same set of 293 county groups and representing counties as the 2005 base case.  Future-year equipment population estimates and control programs (final locomotive-marine and small spark ignition) to 2017 are included.  The only differences between the MATS future case runs are the fuels used, specifically, the ratio of E10 and E15 fuels.  Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and is discussed in Section 3.
   * Locomotive, and non-Class 3 commercial marine sector (alm_no_c3):  Projection factors for Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine and locomotives which reflect CSAPR Proposal comments and activity growth and final locomotive-marine controls.
   * Class 3 commercial marine vessel sector (seca_c3):  Base-year 2005 emissions grown and controlled to 2017, incorporating CSAPR Proposal comments and controls based on Emissions Control Area (ECA) and International Marine Organization (IMO) global NOX and SO2 controls.
   * Onroad mobile sector uses a version MOVES developed for the Tier 3 Proposal that incorporates new car and light truck greenhouse gas emissions standards (LDGHG) affecting model years 2012 and later (published May 7, 2010).  These emissions also include RFS2 fuels.  VOC speciation uses different future-year values to take into account both the increase in ethanol use, and the existence of Tier 2 vehicles that use a different speciation profile.  This sector includes all non-refueling onroad mobile emissions (exhaust, evaporative, brake wear and tire wear modes).  SMOKE-MOVES was used in a similar configuration as the 2005 base case to apportion MOVES emissions factors into hourly gridded temperature-adjusted emissions.
   * Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar):  No growth or control.
   * Other onroad sector (othon):  No growth or control.
   * Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar):  No growth or control.
   * Other point (othpt):  No growth or control.
   * Biogenic:  2005 emissions used for all future-year scenarios.

Table 4-1 summarizes the control strategies and growth assumptions by source type that were used to create the 2017 reference-case emissions from the 2005v4.2 base-case inventories.  These future year base case projections and controls are also included in the MATS reference and control cases.  All Mexico, Canada, and offshore oil emissions are unchanged in all future cases from those in the 2005 base case.

Lists of the control, closures, projection packets (datasets) used to create the MATS 2017 future case inventories from the 2005 MATS base case are provided in Appendix C.

The remainder of this section is organized either by source sector or by specific emissions category within a source sector for which a distinct set of data were used or developed for the purpose of projections for the MATS Rule.  This organization allows consolidation of the discussion of the emissions categories that are contained in multiple sectors, because the data and approaches used across the sectors are consistent and do not need to be repeated.  Sector names associated with the emissions categories are provided in parentheses.

Table 4-1.  Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2017 reference case emissions inventories from the 2005 base case
Control Strategies and/or growth assumptions
(grouped by affected pollutants or standard and approach used to apply to the inventory)
Pollutants affected
Approach/ Reference
             Non-EGU Point (ptnonipm sector) projection approaches
MACT rules, national, VOC: national applied by SCC, MACT
Boat Manufacturing
Wood Building Products Surface Coating
Generic MACT II: Spandex Production, Ethylene manufacture
Large Appliances
Miscellaneous Organic NESHAP (MON): Alkyd Resins, Chelating Agents, Explosives,        Phthalate Plasticizers, Polyester Resins, Polymerized Vinylidene Chloride
Reinforced Plastics
Asphalt Processing & Roofing
Iron & Steel Foundries
Metal: Can, Coil
Metal Furniture
Miscellaneous Metal Parts & Products
Municipal Solid Waste Landfills
Paper and Other Web
Plastic Parts
Plywood and Composite Wood Products
Carbon Black Production
Cyanide Chemical Manufacturing
Friction Products Manufacturing
Leather Finishing Operations
Miscellaneous Coating Manufacturing
Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)
Refractory Products Manufacturing
Sites Remediation
                                      VOC
                                  EPA, 2007a
Consent decrees on companies (based on information from the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance  -  OECA) apportioned to plants owned/operated by the companies
VOC, CO, NOx, PM, SO2
                                       1
DOJ Settlements: plant SCC controls for:
Alcoa, TX
Premcor (formerly Motiva), DE
All
                                       2
Refinery Consent Decrees:  plant/SCC controls
NOx, PM, SO2
                                       3
Hazardous Waste Combustion
PM
                                       4
Municipal Waste Combustor Reductions  - plant level
PM
                                       5
Hospital/Medical/Infectious Waste Incinerator Regulations
NOX, PM, SO2
                                   EPA, 2005
Large Municipal Waste Combustors  -  growth applied to specific plants
All (including Hg)
                                       5
MACT rules, plant-level, VOC: Auto Plants
VOC
                                       6
MACT rules, plant-level, PM & SO2: Lime Manufacturing
PM, SO2
                                       7
MACT rules, plant-level, PM: Taconite Ore
PM
                                       8
Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 2017 (some farms in the point inventory)
NH3, PM
                                       9
NESHAP:  Portland Cement (09/09/10)  -  plant level based on Industrial Sector Integrated Solutions (ISIS) policy emissions in 2013.  The ISIS results are from the ISIS-Cement model runs for the NESHAP and NSPS analysis of July 28, 2010 and include closures.
Hg, NOX, SO2, PM, HCl
                                 10; EPA, 2010
New York ozone SIP controls
VOC, NOX,
 HAP VOC
                                      11
Additional plant and unit closures provided by state, regional, and the EPA agencies and additional consent decrees.  Includes updates from CSAPR comments.
All
                                      12
Emission reductions resulting from controls put on specific boiler units (not due to MACT) after 2005, identified through analysis of the control data gathered from the Information Collection Request (ICR) from the Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Boiler NESHAP.
NOX, SO2, HCl
                               Section <IP_ADDRESS>
Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE) NESHAP
NOX, CO, PM, SO2
                                      13
Ethanol plants that account for increased ethanol production due to RFS2 mandate
All
                                      14
State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil  - effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New York
SO2
                                      15
                 Nonpoint (nonpt sector) projection approaches
Municipal Waste Landfills: projection factor of 0.25 applied
All
EPA, 2007a
Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to 2017
NH3, PM
                                       9
New York, Connecticut, and Virginia ozone SIP controls
VOC
                                    11, 16
RICE NESHAP
NOX, CO, VOC, PM, SO2
                                      13
State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil  - effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New York
SO2
                                      15
Residential Wood Combustion Growth and Change-outs from year 2005 to 2017
All
                                      17
Gasoline and diesel fuel Stage II refueling via MOVES2010a month-specific inventories for 2017 with assumed RFS2 and LDGHG fuels
VOC, Benzene, Ethanol
                                      18
Portable Fuel Container Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule 2 (MSAT2) inventory growth and control from year 2005 to 2017
VOC
                                      19
Use Phase II WRAP 2018 Oil and Gas
VOC, SO2, NOX, CO
                                Section 4.2.14
Use 2008 Oklahoma and Texas Oil and Gas, and apply year 2017 projections for TX, and RICE NESHAP controls to Oklahoma emissions.
VOC, SO2, NOX, CO, PM
                                Section 4.2.14

APPROACHES/REFERENCES- Non-EGU Stationary Sources:

    1.     Appendix B in the MATS Proposal TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf
    2.     For Alcoa consent decree, used http:// cfpub.epa.gov/compliance/cases/index.cfm; for  Motiva: used information sent by State of Delaware
    3.     Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS, Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD).
    4.     Obtained from Anne Pope, the US EPA - Hazardous Waste Incinerators criteria and hazardous air pollutant controls carried over from 2002 Platform, v3.1.
    5.     Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS SPPD expert.
    6.     Percent reductions and plants to receive reductions based on recommendations by rule lead engineer, and are consistent with the reference:  EPA, 2007a
    7.     Percent reductions recommended are determined from the existing plant estimated baselines and estimated reductions as shown in the Federal Register Notice for the rule.  SO2 percent reduction are computed by 6,147/30,783 = 20% and PM10 and PM2.5 reductions are computed by 3,786/13,588 = 28%
    8.     Same approach as used in the 2006 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), which estimated reductions of "PM emissions by 10,538 tpy, a reduction of about 62%."  Used same list of plants as were identified based on tonnage and SCC from CAIR: http://www.envinfo.com/caain/June04updates/tiop_fr2.pdf
    9.     Except for dairy cows and turkeys (no growth), based on animal population growth estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute.  See Section 4.2.10.
    10.     Data files for the cement sector provided by Elineth Torres, the EPA-SPPD, from the analysis done for the Cement NESHAP:  The ISIS documentation and analysis for the cement NESHAP/NSPS is in the docket of that rulemaking- docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-005.  The Cement NESHAP is in the Federal Register: September 9, 2010 (Volume 75, Number 174, Page 54969-55066
    11.     New York NOX and VOC reductions obtained from Appendix J in NY Department of Environmental Conservation Implementation Plan for Ozone (February 2008): http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf.
    12.     Appendix D of Cross-State Air Pollution Rule:  ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf
    13.     Appendix F in the Proposed (Mercury and Air) Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf
    14.     The 2008 data used came from Illinois' submittal of 2008 emissions to the NEI.
    15.     Based on available, enforceable state sulfur rules as of November, 2010: http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf , http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf , http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html , http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/new-york-mandates-cleaner-heating-oil/
    16.     VOC reductions in Connecticut and Virginia obtained from CSAPR comments.
    17.     Growth and Decline in woodstove types based on industry trade group data, See Section 4.2.11.
    18.     MOVES (2010a) results for onroad refueling including activity growth from VMT, Stage II control programs at gasoline stations, and phase in of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls.  http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm
    19.     VOC, benzene, and ethanol emissions for 2017 based on MSAT2 rule and ethanol fuel assumptions (EPA, 2007b)

Onroad mobile and nonroad mobile controls
(list includes all key mobile control strategies but is not exhaustive)
National Onroad Rules:
Tier 2 Rule:  Signature date February, 2000
2007 Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule:  February, 2009
Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule (MSAT2):  February, 2007
Renewable Fuel Standard:  March, 2010
Light Duty Greenhouse Gas Rule: May, 2010
Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for 2008-2011
all
1
Local Onroad Programs:
National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV):  March, 1998
Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) LEV Program:  January,1995
VOC
2
National Nonroad Controls:
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4:  June, 2004
Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large-Spark Ignition Engines and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land Based): "Pentathalon Rule":  November, 2002
Clean Bus USA Program:  October, 2007
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder: October, 2008
Locomotive and marine rule (May 6, 2008)
Marine SI rule (October 4, 1996)
Nonroad large SI and recreational engine rule (November 8, 2002)
Nonroad SI rule (October 8, 2008)
Phase 1 nonroad SI rule (July 3, 1995)
Tier 1 nonroad diesel rule (June 17, 2004)
all
3,4,5
Aircraft (emissions are in the nonEGU point inventory):
Itinerant (ITN) operations at airports to 2017
all
6
Locomotives:
Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4:  June 2004
Locomotive Emissions Final Rulemaking, December 17, 1997
Locomotive rule: April 16, 2008
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine:  May 2008
all
EPA, 2009; 3; 4; 5
Commercial Marine:
Category 3 marine diesel engines Clean Air Act and International Maritime Organization standards (April, 30, 2010)  - also includes CSAPR comments.
EIA fuel consumption projections for diesel-fueled vessels
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule  -  Tier 4
Emissions Standards for Commercial Marine Diesel Engines, December 29, 1999
Locomotive and marine rule (May 6, 2008)
Tier 1 Marine Diesel Engines, February 28, 2003
all
7, 3; EPA, 2009
APPROACHES/REFERENCES  -  Mobile Sources

    1.     http://epa.gov/otaq/hwy.htm
    2.     Only for states submitting these inputs:  http://www.epa.gov/otaq/lev-nlev.htm
    3.     http://www.epa.gov/nonroad-diesel/2004fr.htm
    4.     http://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus/
    5.     http://www.epa.gov/otaq/marinesi.htm
    6.     Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System, January 2010: http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp
    7.     http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm
Stationary source projections:  EGU sector (ptipm)
The future-year data for the ptipm sector used in the air quality modeling were created using version 4.10 Final of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkt/progsregs/epa-ipm/index.html).  The IPM is a multiregional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. electric power sector.  Version 4.10 Final reflects federal and state rules and binding, enforceable consent decrees through December of 2010.  The 2017 IPM emissions reflect the CSAPR as finalized in July 2011.  The reference case, also known as the future year baseline, emissions do not reflect the final Mercury and Air Toxics (MATS) rule, but the control case emissions do reflect the rule.  Neither case reflects the Boiler MACT regulatory assumptions.

Version 4.10 Final reflects state rules and consent decrees through December 1, 2010, information obtained from the 2010 Information Collection Request (ICR), and information from comments received on the IPM-related Notice of Data Availability (NODA) published on September 1, 2010. Notably, IPM 4.1 Final included the addition of over 20 GW of existing Activated Carbon Injection (ACI) for coal-fired EGUs reported to EPA via the ICR. Additional unit-level updates that identified existing pollution controls (such as scrubbers) were also made based on the ICR and on comments from the IPM NODA. Units with SO2 or NOX advanced controls (e.g., scrubber, SCR) that were not required to run for compliance with Title IV, New Source Review (NSR), state settlements, or state-specific rules were modeled by IPM to either operate those controls or not based on economic efficiency parameters. The IPM run for the reference case modeled with CMAQ assumed that 100% of the HCl found in the coal was emitted into the atmosphere. However, in the final IPM results for the rule, neutralization of 75% of the available HCl was included based on recent findings.

Further details on the reference case EGU emissions inventory used for this rule can be found in the IPM v.4.10 Documentation, available at http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/transport.html. The reference case modeled in IPM for this rule includes estimates of emissions reductions that will result from the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. However, reductions from the Boiler MACT rule were not represented this modeling because the rule was stayed at the time the modeling was performed. A complete list of state regulations, NSR settlements, and state settlements included in the IPM modeling is given in Appendices 3-2, 3-3, and 3-4 beginning on p. 68 of http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/CSAPR/docs/DocSuppv410_FTransport.pdf. For the 2017 reference case EGU emissions, the IPM outputs for 2020, which are also representative of the year 2017, were used. These emissions were very similar to the year 2015 emissions output from the same IPM modeling case.

Directly emitted PM emissions (i.e., PM2.5 and PM10) from the EGU sector are computed via a post processing routine which applies emission factors to the IPM-estimated fuel throughput based on fuel, configuration and controls to compute the filterable and condensable components of PM.  This methodology is documented in the IPM CSAPR TSD.
Stationary source projections:  non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, afdust)
To project U.S. stationary sources other than the ptipm sector, we applied growth factors and/or controls to certain categories within the ptnonipm, nonpt, ag and afdust platform sectors.  This subsection provides details on the data and projection methods used for these sectors.  The MATS future year scenarios also required obtaining and preprocessing numerous other inputs that we received directly from OTAQ.

In estimating future-year emissions, we assumed that emissions growth does not track with economic growth for many stationary non-IPM sources.  This "no-growth" assumption is based on an examination of historical emissions and economic data.  More details on the rationale for this approach can be found in Appendix D of the Regulatory Impact Assessment for the PM NAAQS rule (EPA, 2006).

The starting point for projecting the 2005 MATS emissions was to use similar emission projection methodologies as used for the 2005v4.2 platform for the Final CSAPR, which incorporated responses to public comments on the modeling inventories.  The 2012 and 2014 projection factors developed for the CSAPR (see http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#final) were updated to reflect year 2017.

Year-specific projection factors for years 2017 were created.  Growth factors (and control factors) are provided in the following sections where feasible.  However, some sectors used growth or control factors that varied geographically and their contents could not be provided in the following sections (e.g., gasoline distribution varies by state and pollutant and has hundreds of records).

Table 4-2 lists the stationary non-EGU inputs and projection factors that were applied to account for the year 2017 RFS2 mandate impacts on emissions to the reference case.  These inputs are discussed in more detail in Section 4.2.1 through Section 4.2.9.  All other stationary non-EGU projections, controls and plant closure information not related to the RFS2 impacts are discussed in Section 4.2.10 through Section 4.2.13.  All stationary non-EGU emissions in the 2017 reference case are unchanged in the 2017 control case (see Section 5); therefore, we will simply note that these emissions are "year 2017" rather than the more cumbersome "year 2017 reference case".
   Table 4-2.  MATS reference case mobile source-related projection methods
Input
Type
Sector(s)
Description
Corn ethanol plants
SMOKE ORL file that replaces 2005 base case ORL file
ptnonipm
Based on RFS2 analysis and production volumes.  Point source format.
Biodiesel plants
SMOKE ORL file
ptnonipm
Accounts for facilities with current production capacities, to support RFS2 biodiesel production.  Point source format.
Cellulosic fuel production
SMOKE ORL file
nonpt
Accounts for cellulosic ethanol and cellulosic diesel to support RFS2 cellulosic production.  County-level (nonpoint) format.
Ethanol transport and distribution
SMOKE ORL file
nonpt
Accounts for ethanol vapor losses and spillage at any point in the transport and distribution chain.  County-level (nonpoint) format.
Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs)
SMOKE ORL
nonpt
NONROAD-model based emissions from PFCs, including vapor displacement, tank permeation, and diurnal evaporation.  County-level (nonpoint) format.
Onroad refueling
SMOKE ORL file
nonpt
MOVES-based gasoline and diesel fuel spillage and displacement vapor losses.  County-level (nonpoint) format, monthly resolution.
Refinery adjustments
Projection factors
ptnonipm
Not in base cases, accounts for changes in various refinery processes due to incorporation of RFS2 fuels.
Ethanol transport gasoline & ethanol blends
Projection factors
nonpt, ptnonipm
Not in base cases, accounts for RFS impacts on emissions from bulk plant storage, refinery to bulk terminal, and bulk terminal to pump.
Upstream agricultural adjustments
Projection factors
afdust, ag, nonpt, ptnonipm
Not in base cases, accounts for changes in ag burning/dust, fertilizer application/production, livestock dust/waste and pesticide application/production.
Ethanol plants (ptnonipm)
As discussed in Section 2.4.1, we replaced all corn ethanol plants that OTAQ had supplied from the RFS2 rule  - see Section 2.1.2 in the CSAPR Final TSD- with those recently compiled for 2005 and a year 2017 without the RFS2 mandate (not separately modeled for this rule).  Additional ethanol plants cited for development in support of increased ethanol production for RFS2 are the cause for the increased number of facilities and emissions in the reference case.  Table 4-3 provides the summaries for the corn ethanol plants in the 2017 reference case.
         Table 4-3.  2017 reference case corn ethanol plant emissions
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
1,3-Butadiene
                                                                         0.0011
Acrolein
                                                                           41.7
Formaldehyde
                                                                           45.2
Benzene
                                                                           20.3
Acetaldehyde
                                                                          643.2
CO
                                                                         14,847
NOX
                                                                         20,035
PM10
                                                                         21,639
PM2.5
                                                                          6,825
SO2
                                                                         11,299
VOC
                                                                         35,459
Biodiesel plants (ptnonipm)
OTAQ developed an inventory of existing biodiesel plants for 2017 that were sited at existing plant locations in support of producing biodiesel fuels for the RFS2 mandate.  The RFS2 calls for 1.45 billion gallons per year (Bgal) of biodiesel fuel production by year 2017.  Only plants with current production capacities were assumed to be operating in 2017.  Total plant capacity at these existing facilities is limited to just over 1 Bgal.  There was no attempt to site future year plants to account for the need to match biodiesel production needed for RFS2.  Therefore, OTAQ applied a scalar adjustment (of 1.41) to each individual biodiesel plant to match the 2017 production target of 1.45 Bgal.  Once facility-level production capacities were scaled, emission factors were applied based on an assumed natural gas combustion process.  Inventories were modeled as point sources with Google Earth and web searching validating facility coordinates and correcting state-county FIPS.  Table 4-4 provides the 2017 biodiesel plant emissions estimates.

                  Table 4-4.  2017 biodiesel plant emissions
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
Acrolein
                                                                       3.09E-04
Formaldehyde
                                                                       2.23E-03
Benzene
                                                                       4.71E-05
Acetaldehyde
                                                                       3.59E-04
CO
                                                                            726
NOX
                                                                          1,171
PM10
                                                                             99
PM2.5
                                                                             99
SO2
                                                                              9
VOC
                                                                             64
Portable fuel containers (nonpt)
OTAQ provided year 2017 PFC emissions that include estimated Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) and oxygenate impacts on VOC emissions, and more importantly, large increases in ethanol emissions from RFS2.  These emission estimates also include refueling from the NONROAD model for gas can vapor displacement, changes in tank permeation and diurnal emissions from evaporation.  Because these PFC inventories contain ethanol, we developed a VOC E-profile that integrated ethanol, see Section 3 for more details.  Emissions for 2017 are provided in Table 4-5.
                      Table 4-5.  PFC emissions for 2017
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
VOC
                                                                        123,186
Benzene
                                                                          1,368
Ethanol
                                                                         11,565
Cellulosic fuel production (nonpt)
OTAQ developed county-level inventories for cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol production for 2017 to satisfy RFS2 production.  The methodology for building cellulosic plant emissions inventories is fairly similar conceptually to that for building the biodiesel plant inventories.  First, we assume that cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol are produced in the same counties where current production capacity exists, based on RFS2 FRM inventories.  Total county production capacities was over 16 Bgal; therefore, OTAQ applied a scalar adjustment (of 0.246) to each counties production capacity to match the 2017 production target of 3.93 Bgal (2.2 Bgal diesel and 1.69Bgal ethanol).  Once county-level cellulosic production capacities were scaled down to match the 2017 target, emission factors were applied based on an assumed natural gas combustion process.  Table 4-6 provides the year 2017 cellulosic plant emissions estimates.

                  Table 4-6.  2017 cellulosic plant emissions
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
Acrolein
                                                                             21
Formaldehyde
                                                                             58
Benzene
                                                                             27
Acetaldehyde
                                                                            786
CO
                                                                         42,839
Ethanol
                                                                          1,875
NH3
                                                                            0.5
NOX
                                                                         64,062
PM10
                                                                          7,533
PM2.5
                                                                          3,796
SO2
                                                                          4,973
VOC
                                                                          5,336
We had no refined information on potential VOC speciation differences between cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol sources.  Therefore, we summed up cellulosic diesel and cellulosic ethanol sources and used the same SCC (30125010: Industrial Chemical Manufacturing, Ethanol by Fermentation production) for VOC speciation as was used for corn ethanol plants.  However, these cellulosic inventories contain ethanol; therefore we developed a VOC E-profile that integrated ethanol, see Section 3 for more details.
Ethanol transport and distribution (nonpt)
OTAQ developed county-level inventories for ethanol transport and distribution for 2017 to account for losses for the processes such as truck, rail and waterways loading/unloading and intermodal transfers such as highway-to-rail, highways-to-waterways, and all other possible combinations of transfers.  Emission rates were applied based on June 2008 AP-42 factors and ethanol versus gasoline vapor mass equations.  These emissions are entirely evaporative and therefore limited to VOC and are summarized in Table 4-7.  The leading descriptions are "Industrial Processes; Food and Agriculture; Ethanol Production" for each SCC.
 Table 4-7.  VOC losses (Emissions) due to ethanol transport and distribution
SCC
Description
                                     Tons
                                                                       30205031
Denatured Ethanol Storage Working Loss
                                                                         27,763
                                                                       30205052
Ethanol Loadout to Truck
                                                                         19,069
                                                                       30205053
Ethanol Loadout to Railcar
                                                                          9,610
Onroad refueling (nonpt)
As discussed in Section 2.5.2, the refueling inventory includes gasoline and diesel fuel emissions from spillage loss and displacement vapor loss.  For this analysis, the refueling emissions were estimated using the revised version of EPA's Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES2010a) at the county level for all twelve months.  The same set of representative counties and temperatures were used for all MATS scenarios.  VMT, fleet age distribution and speed distribution were developed for 2017.  Because these refueling inventories contain ethanol, we developed a VOC E-profile that integrated ethanol, see Section 3 for more details.  A summary of the 2017 onroad mobile refueling emissions is provided in Table 4-8.

          Table 4-8.  Onroad gasoline and diesel refueling emissions
Fuel Type
Pollutant
                                                                           Tons
Gasoline
VOC
                                                                         63,759
Diesel
VOC
                                                                         12,962
Gasoline
Benzene
                                                                            161
Gasoline
Ethanol
                                                                          8,735
Refinery adjustments (ptnonipm)
Refinery emissions were adjusted for changes in fuels due to the RFS2 mandate.  These adjustments were provided by OTAQ and impact processes such as process heaters, catalytic cracking units, blowdown systems, wastewater treatment, condensers, cooling towers, flares and fugitive emissions.  The impact of the RFS2-based reductions is shown in Table 4-9.
         Table 4-9.  Impact of refinery adjustments on 2017 emissions
Pollutant
Reductions (tons)
CO
                                                                         12,674
NOX
                                                                         20,183
PM10
                                                                          4,367
PM2.5
                                                                          2,525
SO2
                                                                         13,846
VOC
                                                                          3,693
Ethanol transport gasoline and blends (ptnonipm, nonpt)
Emissions changes in the transport of changing fuels from the RFS2 mandate impact several processes including bulk plant storage (BPS), refinery to bulk terminal (RBT) and bulk terminal to pump (BTP).  These impacts, provided by OTAQ, result in approximately 15,000 tons of VOC reductions in 2017 for these processes.
Upstream agricultural adjustments (afdust, ag, nonpt, ptnonipm)
Changes in domestic biofuel volumes, resulting from the RFS2 fuels mandate, impact upstream agricultural-related source categories in several emissions modeling sectors.  These source categories include fertilizer application, pesticide application and livestock waste (NH3 only), agricultural tilling, unloading and livestock dust (PM only) and fertilizer production mixing and blending, pesticide production and agricultural burning (all pollutants).  As seen in Table 4-10, the cumulative impact of these source-specific changes is a net increase in emissions for upstream agricultural sources.
Table 4-10.  Upstream agricultural emission increases due to RFS2 fuels in 2017
Pollutant
Increases (tons)
CO
                                                                            302
NH3
                                                                         45,272
NOX
                                                                            363
PM10
                                                                         42,934
PM2.5
                                                                          6,500
SO2
                                                                             69
VOC
                                                                             16
Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)
Growth in ammonia (NH3) and dust (PM10 and PM2.5) emissions from livestock in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm sectors was based on projections of growth in animal population.  Table 4-11 provides the growth factors from the 2005 base-case emissions to all MATS year 2017 scenarios for animal categories applied to the ag, afdust, and ptnonipm sectors for livestock-related SCCs.

Except for dairy cows and turkey production, the animal projection factors are derived from national-level animal population projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute (FAPRI).  For dairy cows and turkeys, we assumed that there would be no growth in emissions.  This assumption was based on an analysis of historical trends in the number of such animals compared to production rates.  Although productions rates have increased, the number of animals has declined.  Thus, we do not believe that production forecasts provide representative estimates of the future number of cows and turkeys; therefore, we did not use these forecasts for estimating future-year emissions from these animals.  In particular, the dairy cow population is projected to decrease in the future as it has for the past few decades; however, milk production will be increasing over the same period.  Note that the ammonia emissions from dairies are not directly related to animal population but also nitrogen excretion.  With the cow numbers going down and the production going up we suspect the excretion value will be changing, but we assumed no change because we did not have a quantitative estimate.

The inventory for livestock emissions used 2002 emissions values therefore, our projection method projected from 2002 rather than from 2005.

Appendix E in the 2002v3 platform documentation provides the animal population data and regression curves used to derive the growth factors:  http://www.epa.gov/scram001/reports/Emissions%20TSD%20Vol2_Appendices_01-15-08.pdf.  Appendix F in the same document provides the cross references of livestock sources in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm sectors to the animal categories in Table 4-11.
   Table 4-11.  Growth factors from year 2005 to 2017 for animal operations
Animal Category
Projection Factor
Dairy Cow
1.0000
Beef
1.0206
Pork
1.0893
Broilers
1.3442
Turkeys
1.0000
Layers
1.2406
Poultry Average
1.2674
Overall Average
1.0935
Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt)
We projected residential wood combustion (RWC) emissions based on the expected increase in the number of low-emitting wood stoves and the corresponding decrease in other types of wood stoves.  As newer, cleaner woodstoves replace older, higher-polluting wood stoves, there will be an overall reduction of the emissions from these sources.  The approach cited here was developed as part of a modeling exercise to estimate the expected benefits of the woodstoves change-out program (http://www.epa.gov/burnwise).  Details of this approach can be found in Section 2.3.3 of the PM NAAQS Regulatory Impact Analysis (EPA, 2006).

The specific assumptions we made were:
   # Fireplaces, source category code (SCC)=2104008001: increase 1%/year
   # Old woodstoves, SCC=2104008002,<PHONE_NUMBER>, or<PHONE_NUMBER>: decrease 2%/year
   # New woodstoves, SCC=2104008003,<PHONE_NUMBER>,<PHONE_NUMBER>,<PHONE_NUMBER>,<PHONE_NUMBER> or<PHONE_NUMBER>: increase 2%/year
For the general woodstoves and fireplaces category (SCC<PHONE_NUMBER>) we computed a weighted average distribution based on 19.4% fireplaces, 71.6% old woodstoves, 9.1% new woodstoves using 2002v3 Platform missions for PM2.5.  These fractions are based on the fraction of emissions from these processes in the states that did not have the "general woodstoves and fireplaces" SCC in the 2002v3 NEI.  This approach results in an overall decrease of 1.056% per year for this source category.

We discovered an interpolation error in the year 2017 projection factors for RWC after air quality modeling.  Table 4-12 presents the projection factors used to project the 2005 base case (2002 emissions) for RWC, including these 2017 errors.  Table 4-13shows the national impact (tons) of the 2017 projection factor error.
Table 4-12.  Projection factors for growing year 2005 residential wood combustion sources
SCC
SCC Description
                             Erroneous 2017 Factor
                              Correct 2017 Factor
2104008000
Total: Woodstoves and Fireplaces
                                     0.45
                                     0.84
2104008001
Fireplaces: General
                                     0.65
                                     1.15
2104008070
Outdoor Wood Burning Equipment

2104008002
Fireplaces: Insert; non-EPA certified
                                     0.36
                                     0.70
2104008010
Woodstoves: General

2104008051
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Non-EPA certified

2104008003
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; non-catalytic
                                     0.74
                                     1.30
2104008004
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; catalytic

2104008030
Catalytic Woodstoves: General

2104008050
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: EPA certified

2104008052
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Low Emitting

2104008053
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Pellet Fired

Table 4-13.  Impact of year 2017 projection factor error on residential wood combustion estimates
Pollutant
2005 Emissions
Erroneous 2017 Emissions
Erroneous 2017 Reductions
Correct 2017 Emissions
Correct 2017 Reductions
NOX
                                                                         38,292
                                                                         18,023
                                                                         20,270
                                                                         33,545
                                                                          4,747
PM2.5
                                                                        381,362
                                                                        174,769
                                                                        206,593
                                                                        326,706
                                                                         54,656
SO2
                                                                          5,302
                                                                          2,529
                                                                          2,773
                                                                          4,697
                                                                            605
VOC
                                                                        569,950
                                                                        242,126
                                                                        327,824
                                                                        450,990
                                                                        118,959
Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)
These 2005 point-source emissions are projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on itinerant (ITN) operations at airports.  The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take-offs whereby the aircraft leaves the airport vicinity and lands at another airport, or aircraft landings whereby the aircraft has arrived from outside the airport vicinity.  We used projected ITN information available from the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System: http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp (publication date January 2010).  This information is available for approximately 3,300 individual airports, for all years up to 2030.  We aggregated and applied this information at the national level by summing the airport-specific (U.S. airports only) ITN operations to national totals by year and by aircraft operation, for each of the four available operation types: commercial, general, air taxi and military.  We computed growth factors for each operation type by dividing future-year ITN by 2005-year ITN.  We assigned factors to inventory SCCs based on the operation type.

The methods that the FAA used for developing the ITN data in the TAF are documented in:
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2009-2025/media/2009%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf

Table 4-14 provides the national growth factors for aircraft; all factors are applied to year 2005 emissions.  For example, year 2017 commercial aircraft emissions are 12.88% higher than year 2005 emissions.  The same aircraft factors were used for each of the year-specific scenarios:  low-ethanol, reference and control.
Table 4-14.  Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to 2017
SCC
SCC Description
                                                              Projection Factor
2275001000
Military aircraft
                                                                         1.0229
2275020000
Commercial aircraft
                                                                         1.1288
2275050000
General aviation
                                                                         0.8918
2275060000
Air taxi
                                                                         0.8620
27501015
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5
                                                                         1.0229
27502001
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Commercial;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
                                                                         1.1288
27502011
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Commercial;Jet Engine: Jet A
                                                                         1.1288
27505001
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
                                                                         0.8918
27505011
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Jet Engine: Jet A
                                                                         0.8918
27601014
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-4
                                                                         1.0229
27601015
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5
                                                                         1.0229
We did not apply growth factors to any point sources with SCC 27602011 (Internal Combustion Engines; Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust; Commercial; Jet Engine: Jet A) because the facility names associated with these point sources appeared to represent industrial facilities rather than airports.  This SCC is only in one county, Santa Barbara, California (State/County FIPS 06083).

None of our aircraft emission projections account for any control programs.  We considered the NOX standard adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) in February 2004, which is expected to reduce NOX by approximately 2% in 2015 and 3% in 2020.  However, this rule, signed July 2011 (see http://www.epa.gov/otaq/aviation.htm), was not adopted as an EPA (or U.S.) rule prior to MATS modeling; therefore, the effects of this rule were not included in the future-year emissions projections.
Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures (ptnonipm, nonpt)
We applied emissions reduction factors to the 2005 emissions for particular sources in the ptnonipm and nonpt sectors to reflect the impact of stationary-source control programs including consent decrees, settlements, and plant closures.  Some of the controls described in this section were obtained from comments on the CSAPR proposal.  Detailed summaries of the impacts of the control programs are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf.

Controls from the NOX SIP call were assumed to have been implemented by 2005 and captured in the 2005 base case (2005v2 point inventory).  This assumption was confirmed by review of the 2005 NEI that showed reductions from Large Boiler/Turbines and Large Internal Combustion Engines in the Northeast states covered by the NOX SIP call.  The future-year base controls consist of the following:
   * We did not include MACT rules where compliance dates were prior to 2005, because we assumed these were already reflected in the 2005 inventory.  The EPA OAQPS Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD) provided all controls information related to the MACT rules, and this information is as consistent as possible with the preamble emissions reduction percentages for these rules.
   * Various emissions reductions from the CSAPR comments, including but not limited to: fuel switching at units, shutdowns, future-year emission limits, ozone SIP VOC controls for some sources in Virginia and Connecticut, and state and local control programs.
   * Evolutionary information gathering of plant closures (i.e., emissions were zeroed out for future years) were also included where information indicated that the plant was actually closed after the 2005 base year and prior to CSAPR and MATS modeling that began in the spring of 2011.  We also applied unit and plant closures received from the CSAPR comments.  However, plants projected to close in the future (post-2010) were not removed in the future years because these projections can be inaccurate due to economic improvements.  We also applied cement kiln (unit) and cement plant closures discussed later in Section <IP_ADDRESS>.  More detailed information on the overall state-level impacts of all control programs and projection datasets, including units and plants closed in the 2017 reference case ptnonipm inventories are provided in Appendix D of the Final CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf.  The magnitude of all unit and plant closures on the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) sector 2005 base-case emissions is shown in Table 4-15 below.  These same reductions are seen in all MATS future year scenarios.
Table 4-15.  Summary of non-EGU emission reductions applied to the 2005 inventory due to unit and plant closures

                                      CO
                                      NH3
                                      NOX
                                     PM10
                                     PM2.5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC
Reductions
                                                                        125,162
                                                                            636
                                                                        109,237
                                                                         21,143
                                                                         12,600
                                                                        190,734
                                                                         26,750
   * In addition to plant closures, we included the effects of the Department of Justice Settlements and Consent Decrees on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector emissions.  We also included estimated impacts of HAP standards per Section 112, 129 of the Clean Air Act on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) and nonpoint (nonpt) sector emissions, based on expected CAP co-benefits to sources in these sectors.
   * Numerous controls have compliance dates beyond 2008; these include refinery and the Office of Compliance and Enforcement (OECA) consent decrees, Department of Justice (DOJ) settlements, as well as most national VOC MACT controls.  Additional OECA consent decree information is provided in Appendix B of the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf.  The detailed data used are available at the website listed in Section 1.
   * Refinery consent decrees controls at the facility and SCC level (collected through internal coordination on refineries by the EPA).
   * Fuel sulfur fuel limits were enforceable for Maine, New Jersey and New York.
   * Criteria air pollutant (cap) reductions a cobenefit to RICE NESHAP controls, including SO2 RICE cobenefit controls.
   * We applied New York State Implementation Plan available controls for the 1997 8-hour Ozone standard for non-EGU point and nonpoint NOX and VOC sources based on NY State Department of Environmental Conservation February 2008 guidance.  These reductions are found in Appendix J in:  http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf.  See Section 3.2.6 in the CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf.
Most of the control programs were applied as replacement controls, which means that any existing percent reductions ("baseline control efficiency") reported in the NEI were removed prior to the addition of the percent reductions due to these control programs.  Exceptions to replacement controls are "additional" controls, which ensure that the controlled emissions match desired reductions regardless of the baseline control efficiencies in the NEI.  We used the "additional controls" approach for many permit limits, settlements and consent decrees where specific plant and multiple-plant-level reductions/targets were desired and at municipal waste landfills where VOC was reduced 75% via a MACT control using projection factors of 0.25.
Reductions from the Portland Cement NESHAP (ptnonipm)
As indicated in Table 4-1, the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model (EPA, 2010) was used to project the cement industry component of the ptnonipm emissions modeling sector to 2013.  There were no future year estimates for 2017, so 2013 estimates were used for all future year MATS modeling scenarios.  This approach provided reductions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants, including mercury.  The ISIS cement emissions were developed in support for the Portland Cement NESHAPs and the NSPS for the Portland cement manufacturing industry.

The ISIS model produced a Portland Cement NESHAP policy case of multi-pollutant emissions for individual cement kilns (emission inventory units) that were relevant for years 2013 through 2017.  These ISIS-based emissions included information on new cement kilns, facility and unit-level closures, and updated policy case emissions at existing cement kilns.  The units that opened or closed before 2010 were included in the projections as were the ISIS-based policy case predictions of emissions reductions and activity growth.

The ISIS model results for the future show a continuation of the recent trend in the cement sector of the replacement of lower capacity, inefficient wet and long dry kilns with bigger and more efficient preheater and precalciner kilns.  Multiple regulatory requirements such as the NESHAP and NSPS currently apply to the cement industry to reduce CAP and HAP emissions.  Additionally, state and local regulatory requirements might apply to individual cement facilities depending on their locations relative to ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment areas.  The ISIS model provides the emission reduction strategy that balances: 1) optimal (least cost) industry operation, 2) cost-effective controls to meet the demand for cement, and 3) emission reduction requirements over the time period of interest.  Table 4-16 shows the magnitude of the ISIS-based cement industry reductions in the future-year emissions that represent 2013 (and 2017 for MATS), and the impact that these reductions have on total stationary non-EGU point source (ptnonipm) emissions.

Table 4-16.  Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr)
for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector
                                   Pollutant
                       Cement Industry emissions in 2005
                                    (tons)
                              Reductions in 2017
                                    (tons)
                              Percent Reduction %
NOX
                                                                        193,000
                                                                         56,740
                                                                           2.4%
PM2.5
                                                                         14,400
                                                                          7,840
                                                                           1.8%
SO2
                                                                        128,400
                                                                        106,000
                                                                           5.0%
VOC
                                                                          6,900
                                                                          5,570
                                                                           0.4%
HCl
                                                                          2,900
                                                                          2,220
                                                                           4.5%
Boiler reductions not associated with the MACT rule (ptnonipm)
The Boiler MACT ICR collected data on existing controls.  We used an early version of a data base developed for that rulemaking entitled "survey_database_2008_results2.mdb" (EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058-0788) which is posted under the Technical Information for the Boiler MACT major source rule (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/boiler/boilerpg.html).  We extracted all non-EGU stationary (ptnonipm) controls that were installed after 2005, determined a percent reduction, and verified with source owners that these controls were actively in use.  In many situations we learned that the controls were on site but were not in use.  A summary of the plant-unit specific reductions that were verified to be actively in use are summarized in Table 4-17.  All reductions are promulgated by the present day, and therefore these reductions are the same for all MATS future year scenarios.
  Table 4-17.  State-level non-MACT boiler reductions from ICR data gathering
State
                                   Pollutant
                        Pre-controlled Emissions (tons)
                          Controlled Emissions (tons)
                           Reductions in 2017 (tons)
                              Percent Reduction %
Michigan
                                      NOX
                                                                            907
                                                                            544
                                                                            363
                                                                             40
North Carolina
                                      SO2
                                                                            652
                                                                             65
                                                                            587
                                                                             90
Virginia
                                      SO2
                                                                           3379
                                                                            338
                                                                           3041
                                                                             90
Washington
                                      SO2
                                                                            639
                                                                            383
                                                                            256
                                                                             40
North Carolina
                                      HCl
                                                                             31
                                                                              3
                                                                             28
                                                                             90
RICE NESHAP (ptnonipm and nonpt)
There are three rulemakings for National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE).  These rules reduce HAPs from existing and new RICE sources.  In order to meet the standards, existing sources with certain types of engines will need to install controls.  In addition to reducing HAPs, these controls also reduce CAPs, specifically, CO, NOX, VOC, PM, and SO2.  In 2014 and beyond, compliance dates have passed for all three rules; thus all three rules are included in the 2017 reference case emissions projection.

The rules can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/rice/ricepg.html and are listed below:
   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (69 FR 33473) published 06/15/04
   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (FR 9648 ) published 03/03/10
   * National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (75 FR 51570) published 08/20/2010
The difference among these three rules is that they focus on different types of engines, different facility types (major for HAPs, versus area for HAPs) and different engine sizes based on horsepower (HP).  In addition, they have different compliance dates.  We project CAPs from the 2005 NEI RICE sources, based on the requirements of the rule for existing sources only because the inventory includes only existing sources and the current projection approach does not estimate emissions from new sources.

A complete discussion on the methodology to estimate RICE controls is provided in Appendix F in the Proposed MATS Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf.  Impacts of the RICE controls on stationary non-EGU emissions (nonpt and ptnonipm sectors), excluding WRAP, Texas, and Oklahoma oil and gas emissions (see Section 4.2.7) are provided in Table 4-18.  These reductions are promulgated before year 2017, and therefore these reductions are the same for all MATS future year scenarios.
     Table 4-18.  National impact of RICE controls on non-EGU projections

                                      CO
                                      NOX
                                     PM10
                                     PM2.5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC
Reductions
                                    116,434
                                    111,749
                                     1,595
                                     1,368
                                    21,957
                                    14,669
Fuel sulfur rules (ptnonipm and nonpt)
Fuel sulfur rules that were signed (enforceable) at the time of the emissions processing are limited to Maine, New Jersey and New York.  Several other states have fuel sulfur rules that were in development but not finalized prior to the final CSAPR and proposed MATS emissions processing:  http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf.

The fuel sulfur content for all home heating oil SCCs in 2005 is assumed to by 3000 part per million (ppm).  Effective July 1, 2012, New York requires all heating oil sold in New York to contain no more than 15ppm of sulfur, thus reducing SO2 emissions by 99.5% for post-2012 projections.  These New York sulfur content reductions are further discussed here:
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html.

The New Jersey year 2017 standard of 15ppm (assuming 500ppm baseline for Kerosene) sulfur content yields a 96.25% SO2 emissions reduction for kerosene (fuel #1).  The New Jersey sulfur content reductions are discussed here:  http://njtoday.net/2010/09/01/nj-adopts-rule-limiting-sulfur-content-in-fuel-oil/.

For MATS year 2017 projections, the Maine fuel sulfur rule, effective in year 2016, reduces sulfur to50 ppm from 3,000 ppm in 2005, resulting in a 98.3% reduction for the 2017 scenario.  The impact of these fuel sulfur content reductions on SO2 is shown in Table 4-19.  These year-specific reductions are the same for all MATS scenarios:  low-ethanol, reference and control.
 Table 4-19.  Impact of fuel sulfur (SO2) controls on 2017 non-EGU projections
State
                               Reductions (tons)
Maine
                                                                          8,323
New Jersey
                                                                            998
New York
                                                                         54,431
Total
                                                                         63,751
Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt)
For the 2005v4.2 platform, we incorporated updated 2005 oil and gas emissions from Texas and Oklahoma.  For Texas oil and gas production, we used year 2017 estimates from the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and used them as described in:  http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/5820783985FY0901-20090715-ergi-Drilling_Rig_EI.pdf.

We also received 2008 data for Oklahoma that we used as the best available data to represent 2017.  We utilized the latest available future year, year 2018, Phase II WRAP oil and gas emissions data for the non-California Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states to represent 2017.  RICE NESHAP reductions, discussed earlier in this section, which are effective by year 2014, were applied to the year 2008 Oklahoma oil and gas inventory but not applied to the 2017 TCEQ oil and gas estimates or 2018 WRAP Phase II oil and gas inventory.

For Oklahoma, we applied CO, NOX, SO2 and VOC emissions reductions from the RICE NESHAP, which we assumed has some applicability to this industry (see Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:  http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf).  All these year-specific oil and gas projection estimates are the same for all MATS scenarios:  low-ethanol, reference and control.  Table 4-20 shows the 2005 and 2017 NOX and SO2 emissions including RICE reductions for Oklahoma.
Table 4-20.  Oil and gas NOX and SO2 emissions for 2005 and 2017 including additional reductions due to the RICE NESHAP

                                      NOX
                                     PM2.5
                                      SO2
                                      VOC

                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2005
                                                                           2017
Alaska
                                                                            836
                                                                            453

                                                                             62
                                                                              1
                                                                             68
                                                                             12
Arizona
                                                                             13
                                                                             15

                                                                             37
                                                                             49
Colorado
                                                                         32,188
                                                                         33,517

                                                                            350
                                                                             11
                                                                         35,500
                                                                         43,639
Montana
                                                                         10,617
                                                                         13,880

                                                                            640
                                                                              6
                                                                          9,187
                                                                         14,110
Nevada
                                                                             71
                                                                             63

                                                                              1
                                                                              0
                                                                            105
                                                                            163
New Mexico
                                                                         61,674
                                                                         74,648

                                                                            369
                                                                             12
                                                                        215,636
                                                                        267,846
North Dakota
                                                                          6,040
                                                                         20,869

                                                                            688
                                                                              4
                                                                          8,988
                                                                         17,968
Oklahoma
                                                                         39,668
                                                                         42,402
                                                                          1,918
                                                                          2,231
                                                                          1,014
                                                                              2
                                                                        155,908
                                                                        163,598
Oregon
                                                                             61
                                                                             44

                                                                             19
                                                                             14
South Dakota
                                                                            566
                                                                            557

                                                                             43
                                                                              0
                                                                            370
                                                                            562
Texas
                                                                         42,854
                                                                         34,772
                                                                          2,945
                                                                          1,085
                                                                          5,977
                                                                             36
                                                                          4,337
                                                                          2,800
Utah
                                                                          6,896
                                                                          6,297

                                                                            149
                                                                              1
                                                                         43,403
                                                                         81,890
Wyoming
                                                                         36,172
                                                                         34,142

                                                                            541
                                                                              3
                                                                        166,939
                                                                        304,748
Total
                                                                        237,656
                                                                        261,659
                                                                          4,862
                                                                          3,316
                                                                          9,834
                                                                             76
                                                                        640,498
                                                                        897,400
Onroad mobile source projections (onroad)
The same version of MOVES and SMOKE-MOVES Integration Tool was used to create all MATS onroad emission scenarios.  Section 2.2 describes these components in support of year 2005 processing.  This section will only address the differences related to creating and processing year 2017 reference case emissions.  Speciation changes for all scenarios are discussed in Section 3.

Inputs for temperatures (Section 2.2.1), the representative counties and fuel months (Section 2.2.2), the overall parallel processing procedures (Section 2.2.3), speed data (Section 2.2.4), and SMOKE-MOVES configurations (Section 2.2.4) were previously discussed and were the same for all MATS scenarios.  However, year-specific MOVES inputs were obtained for fuels and California LEV standards, and SMOKE inputs of VMT and vehicle populations were year-specific and are described below.

For the 2017 VMT inventory, MOVES2010a was run with default inputs to generate total national VMT by SCC.  But, because MOVES uses a static (1999) default allocation of VMT to county, MOVES was not used for these allocations.  Instead, the 2017 county VMT was created by interpolating between the NCD VMT values for 2015 and those for 2020 and computing the NCD fraction for each county, then multiplying these fractions by the MOVES VMT.  The VMT was also adjusted to account for increased onroad transportation of ethanol fuels and the resulting increase in travel by large tanker trucks.

Vehicle populations by county and SCC were developed similarly to the VMT, using MOVES to generate national totals for each year and using the NCD to allocate to county.  However, the NCD does not include population estimates, so we used MOVES to generate the 2005 national population and we assumed that, for each calendar year (2005 and 2017) and for each SCC, the allocation of  national vehicle population to county was proportional to the allocation of VMT (summed across road types).

The MOVES 2017 emissions used for MATS reflect onroad mobile control programs including the Light-Duty Vehicle Tier 2 Rule and the Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) final rule.
California LEV
The list of States which have implemented programs to require the sale of vehicles in their state certified for sale in California began with the information stored in the modeling inputs used for the 2008 National Emission Inventory (NEI) stored in the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) County database.  This information was reviewed and updated by states during the process of developing the national inventory for calendar year 2008.  This information was supplemented with information from a "Dear Manufacturer" letter, "Sales of California-certified 2008-2010 Model Year Vehicles (Cross-Border Sales Policy)" (October 29,2007) produced by the Compliance and Innovative Strategies Division of the US Environmental Protection Agency which describes the areas that have recently implemented a California standards program.  This information was used to generate emission rate table inputs for the MOVES model for each of these areas using the guidance provided in the document, "Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVES" (EPA-420-B-10-003, January 2010) provided to States with the MOVES model.  For calendar year 2017, areas that had implemented California standards would still have these programs in place in calendar year 2017.  More information on the states that have implemented California LEV standards can be found at:
http://www.dieselnet.com/standards/us/#cal.
Nonroad mobile source projections (nonroad, alm_no_c3, seca_c3)
The components of the nonroad mobile sectors are discussed in Section 2.3.  Nonroad mobile emissions reductions for MATS include year-specific regulations affecting locomotives, various nonroad engines including diesel engines and various marine engine types, fuel sulfur content, and evaporative emissions. This section discusses the changes due to the NONROAD/NMIM system (nonroad sector) and additional C1/C2 CMV and locomotive emissions from volume increases resulting from incorporation of larger amounts in renewable fuels in the 2017 reference case.
Emissions generated with the NONROAD model (nonroad)
As discussed in Section 2.3.1, most nonroad emissions are were estimated using the EPA's NONROAD model, as run by the EPA's consolidated modeling system known as the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM).  NONROAD is EPA's model for calculating emissions from nonroad equipment, except for aircraft, locomotives, and commercial marine vessels.  Like the onroad emissions, the NONROAD/NMIM system provides nonroad emissions for VOC by three emission modes: exhaust, evaporative and refueling.  Unlike the onroad sector, nonroad refueling emissions for nonroad sources are not included in the nonpoint (nonpt) sector and so are retained in this sector.

The same temperatures and representative counties were used for all NONROAD model-generated MATS scenarios.  For 2017, E10 and E15 are available in every county, but nonroad equipment is assumed to burn only E10.  To generate the NMIM fuels, the E10 fuel was copied from MOVES to NMIM, and the E10 oxygenate was assigned a market share of 1.  Highway diesel fuel sulfur levels are copied directly from MOVES to NMIM.  Nonroad diesel fuel sulfur levels are retained from NMIM.

Section <IP_ADDRESS> provides a cross-walk of the nonroad mobile NMIM emission scenarios used in MATS; as previously discussed, the only difference between these scenarios are the increases in activity (based on NONROAD model default growth estimates of future-year equipment population) and changes in fuels and engines that reflect implementation of national regulations and local control programs that impact each year differently due to engine turnover.  For year 2017, EPA assumed that nonroad equipment would use only E10.  Although the NONROAD Model estimates changes in VOC production from E15, NMIM calculates toxics as if the fuel were E10. Emission estimates for ethanol come from speciation of VOC in the SMOKE model.  These ethanol adjustments for nonroad engines running on E15 came from the EPAct Phase 1 data.

We have not included voluntary programs in our projections such as programs encouraging either no refueling or evening refueling on Ozone Action Days and diesel retrofit programs.  The national regulations incorporated in all MATS future year scenarios are those promulgated prior to December 2009, and beginning about 1990.  Recent rules include:
   * "Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4": (http://www.epa.gov/nonroaddiesel/2004fr.htm ), published June 29, 2004, and,
   * Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large Spark-Ignition Engines, and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land-Based), November 8, 2002 ("Pentathalon Rule").
   * OTAQ's Locomotive Marine Rule, March 2008: (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm)
   * OTAQ's Small Engine Spark Ignition ("Bond") Rule, November 2008: (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-ld.htm)
All future year nonroad emissions used NMIM data that are based on AEO2009 fuels and the same NMIM county database NCD20101201Tier3.  We converted emissions from monthly totals to monthly average-day values based the on number of days in each month.  Only criteria and select HAPs (benzene, acetaldehyde, butadiene, acrolein, and formaldehyde) were retained when creating SMOKE one record per line (ORL) files.
Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3)
Aircraft emissions reside in the nonEGU point inventory (ptnonipm), and the projection factors used to create year 2017 estimates, are discussed in Section 4.2.  The remaining 2005 NEI emissions for locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (C1/C2 CMV) use year-specific projection estimates.  Base future year locomotive and C1/C2 CMV emissions were calculated using projection factors that were computed based on national, annual summaries of emissions in 2002 and 2017. Some additional emissions were then factored in due to changes in fuels.  These national summaries were used to create national by-pollutant, by-SCC projection factors; these factors include final locomotive-marine controls and are provided in Table 4-21.  Modest additive Class I railroad and C1/C2 CMV emissions that account for RFS2 volume increases in the MATS reference scenario were then added into the reference case due to the volume differences in corn, cellulosic and imported ethanol and cellulosic diesel fuels.  These additional emissions are summarized in Table 4-22.
Table 4-21.  Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and class 1 and class 2 commercial marine vessel emissions to 2017
SCC
SCC Description
                                   Pollutant
                                                              Projection Factor
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      CO
                                                                          0.938
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.144
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.700
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.642
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.653
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.087
2280002X00
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.786
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      CO
                                                                          1.334
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.627
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.578
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.586
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.005
2285002006
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.589
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      CO
                                                                          0.328
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.352
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.286
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.288
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.001
2285002007
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.315
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      CO
                                                                          1.071
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.496
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.461
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.463
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.005
2285002008
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.475
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      CO
                                                                          1.057
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      NOX
                                                                          0.489
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.455
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.455
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.005
2285002009
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
                                      VOC
                                                                          0.469
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      CO
                                                                          1.341
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      NH3
                                                                          1.325
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      NOX
                                                                          1.128
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                     PM10
                                                                          0.914
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                     PM2.5
                                                                          0.934
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      SO2
                                                                          0.006
2285002010
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
                                      VOC
                                                                          1.509

Table 4-22.  Additional class 1 railroad and C1/C2 CMV emissions from RFS2 fuel volume changes
Pollutant
                           2017 Class 1 Rail (tons)
                             2017 C1/C2 CMV (tons)
1,3-Butadiene
                                                                           0.83
                                                                           0.01
Acrolein
                                                                           0.80
                                                                           0.08
Formaldehyde
                                                                          11.12
                                                                           3.21
Benzene
                                                                           0.66
                                                                           0.44
Acetaldehyde
                                                                           4.83
                                                                           1.59
CO
                                                                          1,250
                                                                            197
NH3
                                                                           3.93
                                                                           0.62
NOX
                                                                          5,731
                                                                            890
PM10
                                                                            141
                                                                             29
PM2.5
                                                                            136
                                                                             27
SO2
                                                                           2.96
                                                                           3.96
VOC
                                                                            257
                                                                             21