22......................................            2042      13,927,310      19,426,959      13,591,314       7,223,922       6,773,441       4,343,622
23......................................            2043      13,935,979      19,433,140      13,595,268       7,224,155       6,773,625       4,343,622
24......................................            2044      13,943,871      19,438,767      13,598,868       7,224,367       6,773,790       4,343,622
25......................................            2045      22,174,444      29,152,824      20,355,009       7,633,697       9,489,116       4,781,464
26......................................            2046      13,955,521      19,447,074      13,604,182       7,224,679       6,774,061       4,343,622
27......................................            2047      13,960,466      19,450,599      13,606,438       7,224,812       6,774,181       4,343,622
28......................................            2048      13,964,937      19,453,788      13,608,477       7,224,932       6,774,292       4,343,622
29......................................            2049      13,969,051      19,456,721      13,610,354       7,225,042       6,774,396       4,343,622
30......................................            2050      26,815,885      33,350,158      23,655,970       8,045,813      11,171,981       4,781,464
31......................................            2051      18,425,034      23,909,622      18,057,646       9,002,835       8,999,434       4,343,622
32......................................            2052      18,428,332      23,911,973      18,059,151       9,002,923       8,999,513       4,343,622
33......................................            2053      18,431,447      23,914,194      18,060,572       9,003,007       8,999,585       4,343,622
34......................................            2054      18,434,213      23,916,166      18,061,833       9,003,081       8,999,649       4,343,622
35......................................            2055      28,781,702      35,756,214      26,844,673       9,423,600      12,687,495       4,781,464
36......................................            2056      18,438,804      23,919,440      18,063,928       9,003,204       8,999,755       4,343,622
37......................................            2057      18,440,716      23,920,803      18,064,800       9,003,256       8,999,799       4,343,622
38......................................            2058      18,442,316      23,921,944      18,065,529       9,003,299       8,999,834       4,343,622
39......................................            2059      18,443,789      23,922,994      18,066,201       9,003,338       8,999,864       4,343,622
40......................................            2060      31,518,164      38,029,601      28,307,710       9,825,764      13,480,752       4,781,464
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                      Table VII-11 Continued SCMS Costs by Function
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Intermediate                                                                      Total per
                  Year                     Calendar year        CA            Root CA           DCM           Manager       Total costs       vehicle
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021      $4,317,570      $1,723,817      $4,378,553      $2,233,628     $39,100,867           $2.42
2.......................................            2022       4,279,932       1,717,795       4,340,915       2,231,119      38,814,652            2.38
3.......................................            2023       4,279,932       1,717,795       4,340,915       2,231,119      38,826,479            2.36
4.......................................            2024       4,279,932       1,717,795       4,340,915       2,231,119      38,849,687            2.35
5.......................................            2025       4,718,684       1,808,090       4,760,710       2,292,279      46,595,268            2.80
6.......................................            2026       4,279,932       1,717,795       4,340,915       2,231,119      38,931,210            2.32
7.......................................            2027       4,279,932       1,717,795       4,340,915       2,231,119      38,977,180            2.31
8.......................................            2028       4,279,932       1,717,795       4,340,915       2,231,119      39,022,793            2.29
9.......................................            2029       4,279,932       1,717,795       4,340,915       2,231,119      39,067,558            2.28
10......................................            2030       5,968,049       1,808,090       4,760,710       2,557,780      59,448,941            3.44
11......................................            2031       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,464,444            3.75
12......................................            2032       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,506,362            3.73
13......................................            2033       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,547,052            3.71
14......................................            2034       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,586,244            3.68
15......................................            2035      10,890,222       1,808,090       4,760,710       3,511,964      85,783,450            4.77
16......................................            2036       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,658,556            3.62
17......................................            2037       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,691,506            3.58
18......................................            2038       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,722,070            3.55
19......................................            2039       8,455,524       1,717,795       4,340,915       3,382,829      65,750,310            3.52
20......................................            2040      12,177,224       1,808,090       4,760,710       3,774,067      99,760,445            5.29
21......................................            2041      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,474,574            4.62
22......................................            2042      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,493,733            4.77
23......................................            2043      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,512,955            4.74
24......................................            2044      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,530,450            4.72
25......................................            2045      17,513,413       1,808,090       4,760,710       4,691,868     122,360,635            6.48
26......................................            2046      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,556,305            4.67
27......................................            2047      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,567,283            4.64
28......................................            2048      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,577,214            4.62
29......................................            2049      12,631,117       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339      88,586,351            4.59
30......................................            2050      19,214,431       1,808,090       4,760,710       4,691,868     138,296,371            7.13
31......................................            2051      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,120,950            5.68
32......................................            2052      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,128,271            5.68
33......................................            2053      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,135,185            5.68
34......................................            2054      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,141,322            5.68
35......................................            2055      23,459,123       1,808,090       4,760,710       4,692,002     152,995,074            7.89

36......................................            2056      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,151,511            5.68
37......................................            2057      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,155,754            5.68
38......................................            2058      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,159,302            5.68
39......................................            2059      16,806,710       1,717,795       4,340,915       4,517,339     110,162,566            5.68
40......................................            2060      23,459,123       1,808,090       4,760,710       4,692,026     160,663,404            8.29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Fuel Economy Impact
    In addition to the cost of V2V equipment itself, other potential
costs include the potential for new equipment on vehicles to increase
vehicle weight. The agency expects increased weight of V2V equipment
will have a small impact on the fuel economy of the individual
vehicles. Over the lifetime of these vehicles, this impact on fuel
economy will create a cost for society.
    Potential fuel economy impacts can be evaluated in terms of annual
impacts and the lifetime fuel economy impacts for a specified MY
vehicle (MY fuel impact). The annual fuel impact represents the
additional fuel costs from all V2V-equipped vehicles for that year. The
MY fuel impact represents the additional fuel costs for a life of a MY
vehicle and should be discounted.
    As described in previous sections, V2V components include DSRC
radios and relevant parts/materials (e.g., antenna, installation
material, HSM etc.) and OBE for cellular, Wi-Fi and satellite. A
variance depending on the potential implementation is related to the
one or two DSRC radio communication approach. Therefore, for the Hybrid
option, the total additional total weight would be 3.21 pounds which
came from one-radio and relevant parts/materials (3.06 pounds) and
satellite radios (0.15 pounds). Weight from cellular and Wi-Fi are
negligible. For the DSRC option, the total additional weight would be
3.38 pounds based the used of two DSRC radios and relevant parts/
materials.
    The impact of added weight on both annual and MY fuel economic is a
function of vehicle volumes, vehicle miles traveled, survival
probability (i.e., the percentage of the vehicle fleet that will not be
scrapped due to an accident), the price of gasoline, and the change in
vehicle fuel economy (i.e., change in miles per gallon) due to the
added weight. Details on the estimating vehicle volumes, miles
traveled, and survivability can be found in Chapter VII of the PRIA.
(a) Annual Fuel Economy Impact
    Table VII-12 shows the annual fuel economy impact for both one-
radio with the Hybrid option and two radios with the DSRC option. Note
that the weight difference between the two-radio system and the one-
radio system is 0.17 pound. This small weight difference resulted in no
discernable difference between these two technology approaches. To be
consistent with the measure used for other cost items, the ``per
vehicle'' cost was estimated to be the cost per a new vehicle. As
shown, the proposed rule would increase the current total annual fuel
consumption by 1.10 million gallons in 2021 to 30.51 million gallons in
2060. The corresponding annual cost for these additional fuels was
estimated to be $3.08 to $135.16 million, annually. These amounts were
translated into $0.19 to $6.97 per new vehicle sold.

                                   Table VII-12--Annual Fuel Economy Impact *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Additional      Total fuel
              Year                 Calendar year    Fuel price        gallons         economy       Per vehicle
                                                                     (million)      (million $)      cost ($)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            2021           $2.80            1.10           $3.08           $0.19
2...............................            2022            2.86            2.69            7.69            0.47
3...............................            2023            2.91            4.70           13.68            0.83
4...............................            2024            2.95            6.58           19.41            1.17
5...............................            2025            2.99            8.34           24.94            1.50
6...............................            2026            3.02           10.02           30.26            1.81
7...............................            2027            3.06           11.66           35.68            2.11
8...............................            2028            3.08           13.19           40.63            2.39
9...............................            2029            3.11           14.62           45.47            2.65
10..............................            2030            3.14           16.01           50.27            2.91
11..............................            2031            3.18           17.32           55.08            3.16
12..............................            2032            3.22           18.52           59.63            3.40
13..............................            2033            3.26           19.69           64.19            3.63
14..............................            2034            3.35           20.73           69.45            3.89
15..............................            2035            3.38           21.76           73.55            4.09
16..............................            2036            3.43           22.68           77.79            4.28
17..............................            2037            3.47           23.50           81.55            4.45
18..............................            2038            3.51           24.28           85.22            4.61
19..............................            2039            3.58           24.99           89.46            4.79
20..............................            2040            3.66           25.64           93.84            4.97
21..............................            2041            3.64           26.27           95.62            5.00
22..............................            2042            3.68           26.70           98.26            5.29
23..............................            2043            3.72           27.11          100.85            5.40
24..............................            2044            3.76           27.46          103.25            5.50
25..............................            2045            3.80           27.83          105.75            5.60
26..............................            2046            3.84           28.11          107.94            5.69
27..............................            2047            3.88           28.44          110.35            5.78
28..............................            2048            3.93           28.71          112.83            5.88

29..............................            2049            3.97           28.91          114.77            5.95
30..............................            2050            4.01           29.21          117.13            6.04
31..............................            2051            4.06           29.43          119.49            6.16
32..............................            2052            4.10           29.65          121.57            6.27
33..............................            2053            4.14           29.82          123.45            6.37
34..............................            2054            4.18           29.97          125.27            6.46
35..............................            2055            4.22           30.10          127.02            6.55
36..............................            2056            4.27           30.20          128.95            6.65
37..............................            2057            4.31           30.33          130.72            6.74
38..............................            2058            4.35           30.41          132.28            6.82
39..............................            2059            4.39           30.47          133.76            6.90
40..............................            2060            4.43           30.51          135.16            6.97
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* For both one-radio and two-radios approaches.

(b) MY Fuel Economy Impact
    MY fuel cost (i.e., lifetime fuel economy cost) is the cost of
additional gasoline used over the vehicle's life and is estimated on a
per vehicle basis. The fuel economy cost for a specific MY vehicle is
derived by applying the specific MY fuel economy cost per vehicle to
every vehicle. The cost is accrued throughout the vehicle's life and is
discounted to reflect its present value (in 2014 dollars) using 3% and
7% discount rates. The MY fuel economy impact also is a function of
mileage, survival probability (i.e., the percentage of the vehicle
fleet that will not be scrapped due to an accident), the price of
gasoline, the change in vehicle fuel economy due to the added weight,
and the discount rate chosen to express lifetime impacts in their
present value. Additional details on the deriving the MY fuel economy
impact can be found in Chapter 7 of the PRIA.
    Table VII-13 shows the MY fuel economy impacts at both 3 and 7
percent discount rates. As shown, at a 3 percent discount rate, the MY
fuel economy impact of V2V related equipment is estimated to be $32.75
million at MY 2021 and gradually increasing to $104.73 million for MY
2050 vehicles. The cost per vehicle is estimated to be $2.02 for MY
2021 and $5.40 for MY 2050 vehicles. The increase in fuel cost in the
future, especially after the third year when the full adoption of DSRC
radios starts, is primarily due to projected higher fuel prices and
vehicle sales, both of which can vary. The cost per vehicle for a
particular MY vehicle is calculated by dividing the total fuel cost for
that MY by the total vehicle sales of that MY vehicle. For the first
two years, due to the proposed phased in implementation, the cost per
vehicle is smaller than the cost per affected vehicle since cost per
vehicle as defined is the average cost over all new vehicles.
    At a 7 percent discount rate, the MY fuel economy impact is
estimated to be $25.03 for million MY 2021 and $80.52 million for MY
2050 vehicles. The cost per vehicle for these two MY vehicles would be
$1.55 and $4.15 for MY 202 and MY 2050 vehicles, respectively.

                                                 Table VII-13--MY Fuel Economy Impact * by Discount Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                MY fuel economy impact             Per vehicle  cost
                                                            Gallons per    Total gallons            (million $)          -------------------------------
                  Year                      Model year        vehicle        (million)   --------------------------------
                                                                                @3%             @7%             @3%             @7%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021            0.83           13.38          $32.75          $25.03           $2.02           $1.55
2.......................................            2022            1.22           19.88           49.33           37.71            3.02            2.31
3.......................................            2023            1.58           26.01           65.34           49.96            3.97            3.04
4.......................................            2024            1.54           25.52           64.90           49.62            3.93            3.00
5.......................................            2025            1.49           24.80           63.85           48.81            3.83            2.93
6.......................................            2026            1.50           25.07           65.31           49.92            3.90            2.98
7.......................................            2027            1.50           25.39           66.95           51.17            3.97            3.03
8.......................................            2028            1.51           25.74           68.69           52.50            4.03            3.08
9.......................................            2029            1.52           26.03           70.32           53.74            4.11            3.14
10......................................            2030            1.53           26.42           72.30           55.27            4.18            3.19
11......................................            2031            1.53           26.77           74.21           56.74            4.26            3.25
12......................................            2032            1.54           27.06           76.00           58.14            4.33            3.31
13......................................            2033            1.55           27.34           77.77           59.52            4.40            3.37
14......................................            2034            1.55           27.71           79.86           61.15            4.48            3.43
15......................................            2035            1.56           28.07           81.82           62.67            4.55            3.48
16......................................            2036            1.56           28.40           83.76           64.18            4.61            3.53
17......................................            2037            1.57           28.77           85.80           65.76            4.68            3.59
18......................................            2038            1.57           29.09           87.73           67.25            4.74            3.64
19......................................            2039            1.58           29.45           89.80           68.86            4.81            3.69
20......................................            2040            1.58           29.87           92.00           70.56            4.88            3.74
21......................................            2041            1.58           30.30           94.14           72.18            4.92            3.77
22......................................            2042            1.59           29.53           92.69           71.07            4.99            3.83
23......................................            2043            1.59           29.69           94.15           72.20            5.05            3.87
24......................................            2044            1.59           29.85           95.63           73.36            5.10            3.91
25......................................            2045            1.59           30.03           97.17           74.56            5.15            3.95

26......................................            2046            1.59           30.19           98.66           75.72            5.20            3.99
27......................................            2047            1.59           30.37          100.21           76.94            5.25            4.03
28......................................            2048            1.59           30.53          101.73           78.14            5.30            4.07
29......................................            2049            1.59           30.69          103.20           79.30            5.35            4.11
30......................................            2050            1.59           30.87          104.73           80.52            5.40            4.15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4. Overall Annual Costs
(a) Total Annual Costs
    The annual costs represent the total annual capital investment and
fuel economy impact from all V2V-equipped vehicles per year. The costs
comprise four major categories: (1) Vehicle technology (i.e., DSRC
radios and app), (2) SCMS, (3) equipment and communication network in
support of vehicles-to-SCMS communication (i.e., Communication), and
(4) fuel economy impact due to the increased weight from the in-vehicle
equipment in (1) and (3).
    Table VII-14 presents the total annual costs and cost per vehicle.
The total annual costs would range from $2.2 (the lower bound for 2021)
to $5.0 billion (not shown, upper bound for 2024). The cost per new
vehicle would range from $135 to $301 (lower bound for 2021 and upper
bound for 2024). The lower and upper bounds represent the two
technology implementation approaches (one-radio and two-radios) that
the agency believes can meet the proposed rule and the security and
privacy specifications.

                              Table VII-14--Total Annual Costs and Cost per Vehicle
                                                    [2014 $]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Annual cost  (million $)         Annual cost per vehicle
              Year                 Calendar year ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Low            High             Low            High
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            2021          $2,192          $2,864         $135.38         $176.89
5...............................            2025           3,701           4,803          222.02          288.13
10..............................            2030           3,649           4,692          210.94          271.22
15..............................            2035           3,717           4,757          206.52          264.26
20..............................            2040           3,831           4,844          203.01          256.71
25..............................            2045           3,796           4,764          201.14          252.49
30..............................            2050           3,858           4,818          198.97          248.50
35..............................            2055           3,832           4,766          197.65          245.80
40..............................            2060           3,804           4,717          196.20          243.27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(b) Total Annual Costs by Cost Category
    Table VII-15 to Table VII-18 lists the total annual costs
separately for the four cost categories. As shown, the majority of
costs came from vehicle technology costs. The annual vehicle technology
costs ranged from $2.0 to $4.9 billion (in 2023, not shown) and the per
vehicle cost ranged from $124 to $298.
    The SCMS costs included the costs for the establishment, operation,
and maintenance of the system that covered the expenditure on human
resources, equipment, facilities, energy, etc. The total annual SCMS
costs would range from $39 to $161 million. This is equivalent to $2 to
$8 per vehicle.
    The communication costs included the costs for equipment and
communication network that are needed in support of the vehicle-to-SCMS
communication. The annual communication costs would range up to $494
million. The communication cost per vehicle would be up to $26 per
vehicle.
    The fuel economy impact was based on the added weight of 3.38
pounds for the two-radio technology approach and 3.21 pounds for the
one-radio approach. Due to the insignificant weight difference between
these two approaches, the estimated fuel economy impacts are identical
for these approaches when factoring rounding errors. Therefore, the
fuel economy impact as shown applies to both approaches. The annual
fuel economy impact would range from $3 to 135 million. This equates to
up to $7 per vehicle.

                               Table VII-15--Total Annual Vehicle Technology Costs
                                        [2014 $ and vehicles in millions]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Total costs  (million $)            Cost per vehicle
              Year                 Calendar year ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Low            High             Low            High
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            2021          $2,001          $2,822         $123.59         $174.29
5...............................            2025           3,297           4,646          197.79          278.68
10..............................            2030           3,160           4,447          182.63          257.06
15..............................            2035           3,135           4,413          174.17          245.17
20..............................            2040           3,178           4,473          168.39          237.03

25..............................            2045           3,096           4,359          164.09          230.98
30..............................            2050           3,115           4,385          160.67          226.16
35..............................            2055           3,061           4,308          157.85          222.19
40..............................            2060           3,015           4,243          155.47          218.85
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                     Table VII-16--Total Annual SCMS Costs *
                                        [2014 $ and vehicles in millions]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                Total costs      Cost per
                              Year                                 Calendar year    (million $)       vehicle
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................................................            2021             $39           $2.42
5...............................................................            2025              47            2.80
10..............................................................            2030              59            3.44
15..............................................................            2035              86            4.77
20..............................................................            2040             100            5.29
25..............................................................            2045             122            6.48
30..............................................................            2050             138            7.13
35..............................................................            2055             153            7.89
40..............................................................            2060             161            8.29
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Not impacted by technology approach.

                                 Table VII-17--Total Annual Communication Costs
                                        [2014 $ and vehicles in millions]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Total costs  (million $)            Cost per vehicle
              Year                 Calendar year ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Low            High             Low            High
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            2021              $0          $1,486           $0.00           $9.18
5...............................            2025              85           3,324            5.15           19.94
10..............................            2030             135           3,799            7.81           21.96
15..............................            2035             185           4,229           10.24           23.49
20..............................            2040             178           4,597            9.42           24.36
25..............................            2045             178           4,709            9.42           24.96
30..............................            2050             178           4,873            9.16           25.13
35..............................            2055             178           4,917            9.16           25.36
40..............................            2060             178           4,939            9.16           25.47
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             Table VII-18--Total Annual Fuel Economy Impact * Costs
                                        [2014 $ and vehicles in millions]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       Fuel
                                                                    consumption     Fuel costs       Cost per
                      Year                         Calendar year     (million       (million $)       vehicle
                                                                     gallons)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................................            2021            1.10           $3.08           $0.19
5...............................................            2025            8.34           24.94            1.50
10..............................................            2030           16.01           50.27            2.91
15..............................................            2035           21.76           73.55            4.09
20..............................................            2040           25.64           93.84            4.97
25..............................................            2045           27.83          105.75            5.60
30..............................................            2050           29.21          117.13            6.04
35..............................................            2055           30.10          127.02            6.55
40..............................................            2060           30.51          135.16            6.97
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Cost equal for both two technology implementation approaches due to insignificant weight difference.

5. Overall Model Year (MY) Costs
    The primary difference between the annual and MY costs is the fuel
economy impact. The PRIA assumes that vehicle technology, SCMS, and
communication costs would be paid by vehicle owners when their vehicles
were purchased. Thus, these three costs are identical between the
annual and

MY costs. In annual costs, the fuel economy impact measures the
additional fuel costs for all V2V-equipped MY vehicles in a specific
calendar year. For estimating the MY costs, the fuel economy impact
measures the incremental lifetime fuel impact for a specific MY
vehicles and were discounted at a 3 and 7 percent rate to reflect their
present value.
    Table VII-19 and Table VII-20 shows the MY costs at a 3 percent and
7 percent discount rate, respectively. At a 3 percent discount rate,
the MY costs would range from $2.22 (lower bound at Year 1) to $5.03
billion (upper bound at Year 4, not shown). The cost per vehicle would
range from $137.21 to $304.06. The lower bound of the costs represents
the MY costs for the one-radio approach and the higher bound represents
the cost for the two-radio approach.
    At a 7 percent discount rate, the MY costs would range from $2.21
(lower bound at Year 1) to $5.01 billion (upper bound at Year 4, not
shown). The MY cost per vehicle would range from $136.73 to $303.14.

                         Table VII-19--Total MY Costs and Cost per Vehicle at 3 Percent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Total MY costs  (million $)         MY cost per vehicle
              Year                  Model year   ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Low            High             Low            High
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            2021          $2,221          $2,894         $137.21         $178.72
5...............................            2025           3,740           4,842          224.36          290.46
10..............................            2030           3,671           4,714          212.21          272.49
15..............................            2035           3,726           4,765          206.98          264.72
20..............................            2040           3,829           4,842          202.92          256.61
25..............................            2045           3,787           4,756          200.68          252.03
30..............................            2050           3,846           4,806          198.33          247.86
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                         Table VII-20--Total MY Costs and Cost per Vehicle at 7 Percent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Total MY costs  (million $)        MY cost per  vehicle
              Year                 Calendar year ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Low            High             Low            High
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            2021          $2,214          $2,886         $136.73         $178.25
5...............................            2025           3,725           4,827          223.45          289.56
10..............................            2030           3,654           4,697          211.22          271.51
15..............................            2035           3,706           4,746          205.92          263.66
20..............................            2040           3,808           4,821          201.78          255.47
25..............................            2045           3,764           4,733          199.49          250.83
30..............................            2050           3,821           4,782          197.09          246.61
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The agency seeks comment on all aspects of the cost estimates
developed for this proposal. This includes all cost assumptions,
estimated component costs, communication costs including other
potential options the agency did not evaluate, and views on potential
SCMS costs. Please provide any supporting data for the comments. If
necessary, the agency has processes and procedures for submitting
confidential business information.

C. Non-Quantified Costs

    The agency identified four major non-quantified costs that could be
related to the deployment of V2V devices. These include the potential
health costs due to a potential increase in electromagnetic
hypersensitivity (EHS, i.e., human radiation exposure to wireless
communications discussed in Section IV.E) potential loss of perceived
privacy, the opportunity costs of alternative uses for the spectrum,
and possibly increased litigation costs. The agency requests comment on
these costs, particularly whether there exist ways to quantify any of
these costs.
1. Health Insurance Costs Relating to EHS
    Many commenters (mostly individual citizens) commented on the
potential relationship of DSRC radio technology and electromagnetic
field exposure hypersensitivity, raising concerns regarding the
potential for a V2V mandate to increase electromagnetic beyond today's
levels. The agency takes these concerns very seriously. The agency
since has conducted a literature review and other research (on-going)
to better understand electromagnetic radiation and its relationship to
the symptoms of EHS. As we understand that the expertise of our sister
agencies such as the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the
Food and Drug Administration (FDA), among others, have been involved
with electromagnetic fields, in parallel with the pervasiveness of
cellular phone deployment in the United States and globally.
    The FDA found that most studies conducted to date show no
connection between certain health problems and exposure to
radiofrequency fields via cell phone use and that attempts to replicate
and confirm the few studies that did show a connection have
failed.\353\ Furthermore, V2V devices would operate at distances
significantly further than the distance between a portable cellular
phone to its operator, where the device is generally carried on a
person or pressed directly to the ear. Therefore, the EHS effects are
expected to be lower for V2V than cell phones; the agency does not
quantify the health costs relating to EHS. Nevertheless, the agency
acknowledges that research is still ongoing and, as technology evolves;
wireless communications will most likely continue to increase. We will
continue to monitor the progress of this issue and closely follow the
efforts of the Radiofrequency Interagency Work Group (RFIAWG) which may
yield any

potential future guidance for wireless device deployment and usage.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \353\ Radiation-Emitting Products, ``Current Research Results,''
http://www.fda.gov/Radiation-EmittingProducts/RadiationEmittingProductsandProcedures/HomeBusinessandEntertainment/CellPhones/ucm116335.htm, last accessed: June 3, 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Perceived Privacy Loss
    One intangible outcome of the proposed rule is a perceived
potential for loss of privacy. Individuals may perceive the V2V system
as eroding their personal privacy and view this as a considerable
negative consequence. Also, several surveys showed that individual
attitudes towards information security seems inconsistent with their
behavior on protection of their information.354 355
Acquisti, et al. stated that identifying the consequence of a privacy
incident is difficult enough, and quantifying these consequences is
remarkably complex.\356\ Furthermore, there are few studies on the
economic costs for privacy and even less for quantifying the economic
costs for perceived privacy loss. Given the great uncertainties for
valuing the perceived loss of privacy, this analysis does not quantify
this cost.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \354\ Acquisti, Alessandro (2004), Privacy Attitudes and Privacy
Behavior, Losses, Gains, and Hyperbolic Discounting (Preliminary
draft).
    \355\ Acquisti, Alessandro (2002). Protecting privacy with
economics: Economic incentives for preventing technologies in
ubiquitous computing environments. In workshop on Socially-informed
Design of Privacy-enhancing Solutions, 4th International Conference
on Ubiquitous Computing--UBICOMP'02.
    \356\ Acquisti, A., Friedman, A., Telang, R., ``Is there a Cost
to Privacy Breaches? An Event Study'', Twenty Seventh International
Conference on Information System, Milwaukee 2006 (pre-proceeding
draft version).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To ease the privacy concerns and mitigate possible privacy loss,
the agency is committed to regulating V2V communications in a manner
that both protects individuals and promotes this important safety
technology. NHTSA has worked closely with experts and our industry
research partners (CAMP and the VIIC) to build privacy protections into
the design and deployment of V2V communications that help guard against
risks to individual privacy.
    The agency has conducted a thorough privacy impact assessment as
required by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2005, Public Law 108-
447. This Act requires that Federal agencies conduct privacy impact
assessments (PIAs) of proposed regulatory activities involving
collections or systems of information in electronic form with the
potential to impact individual privacy. A PIA documents the flow of
information and information requirements within a system by detailing
how and why information is transmitted, collected, stored and shared
to: (1) Ensure compliance with applicable legal, regulatory, and policy
requirements regarding privacy; (ii) determine the risks and effects of
the proposed data transactions; and (iii) examine and evaluate
protections and alternative processes for handling data to mitigate
potential privacy risks.
3. Opportunity Costs of Spectrum for Other Uses
(a) Overview
    Our analysis shows that this rule will generate significant net
benefits due to improved safety, decreased loss of life, reduced
property damage, and other impacts. While requiring this technology has
costs, the analysis here shows that the benefits of this rule well
justify those costs.
    As discussed in greater detail elsewhere in this notice, the FCC
designated the 5.9 GHz band (i.e., 5850-5925 MHz) for ITS radio
services and adopted open license to both public safety and non-public
safety use of this band with the priority for public safety
communications in 2003. Within the 5.9 GHz band, the FCC has designated
Channel 172 (i.e., 5.855-5.865 GHz, a 10 MHz band) exclusively for
``vehicle-to-vehicle communication for crash avoidance and mitigation,
and safety of life and property applications.''
    Given the FCC's decision about how to allocate Channel 172, this
rule results in the use of that particular radio spectrum for vehicle-
to-vehicle communication even though that resource could potentially
have alternative uses for society, including alternative safety
applications. The FCC, not NHTSA or DOT, has the authority to determine
the commercial use of spectrum. However, NHTSA understands the scarcity
of spectrum and in the interests of providing a complete analysis of
the costs and benefits of this rule seeks comment on the potential
costs associated with the lost opportunity to exploit the spectrum at
issue for other uses.
    The FCC, as part of its own ongoing rulemaking proceeding, is
considering whether to allow ``Unlicensed National Information
Infrastructure'' (UNII) devices (that provide short-range, high-speed,
unlicensed wireless connections for, among other applications, Wi-Fi-
enabled radio local area networks, cordless telephones, and fixed
outdoor broadband transceivers used by wireless Internet service
providers) to operate in the same frequencies of the spectrum as V2V.
    Opening any spectrum band to sharing could result in many more
devices transmitting and receiving information on the same or similar
frequencies. Depending on the technology, band, and uses at issue, such
sharing can work well or can lead to harmful interference among those
devices. Recognizing the scarcity of spectrum, in December 2015 and
January 2016, the DOT, FCC, and the Department of Commerce sent joint
letters to members of the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science,
and Transportation, stating a shared ``commitment to finding the best
method to develop, successfully test, and deploy advanced automotive
safety systems while working to meet existing and future spectrum
demands,'' and announcing an interagency, multi-phased testing regime
that will be used to ``provide reliable, real-world data on the
performance of unlicensed devices that are designed to avoid
interfering with DSRC operation in the 5.9 GHz band.'' \357\ The
results of this test will inform FCC on potential sharing solutions, if
any, between proposed Unlicensed National Information Infrastructure
(U-NII) devices and DSRC operations in the 5.850-5.925 GHz (U-NII-4)
band.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \357\ See letter in NHTSA Docket No. NHTSA-2016-0126.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The results of the interagency tests will also be utilized to
inform NHTSA's proceeding as it progresses towards aproceeding prior to
any final rulemaking on V2V. As noted in the joint DOT-FCC-Commerce
letter that responds to a Congressional letter dated September 9, 2015,
it is ``imperative--to ensure the future automotive safety and
efficiency of the traveling public--that all three phases of the FCC
test plan be completed before reaching any conclusions as to whether
[non-DSRC] unlicensed devices can safely operate in the 5.9 GHz band.''
without interfering with DSRC operation.
    DOT believes that any estimate of the opportunity cost of this NPRM
should be made in the context of the FCC's existing policies and
authorities. Put another way, in identifying and valuing other
opportunities that might be precluded or degraded by this NPRM, DOT is
considering those opportunities consistent with the FCC's designation
of spectrum. However, in assessing the benefits in the context of the
current FCC designation on which this rule focuses, we invite and will
consider comments on opportunity costs associated with broader uses of
spectrum beyond the current FCC designation.
    In addition, we provide a further discussion of other potential
benefits of DSRC beyond the two safety applications quantified in the
economic analysis for this NPRM. Those

additional benefits include potential safety, congestion,
environmental, UAS and Smart City benefits.
(b) Benefits of DSRC
    We first provide a further explanation of the potential additional
safety benefits of DSRC beyond the two intersection safety applications
quantified in the economic analysis for this NPRM.
    The primary benefit of the proposed rule is improved automobile
safety. Section VII.D discusses this benefit at length. DOT also wishes
to present a broader discussion of the benefits not measured in the
Primary Regulatory Impact Analysis and seek comment on the resulting
estimate. To arrive at this estimate, we have taken existing research
that quantified motor vehicle crashes as costing society over $242
billion in economic impacts in 2010 and caused societal harm of over
$836 billion through fatalities, injuries and property damage.
Adjusting the societal harm estimate to reflect the increase in traffic
fatalities and CPI in 2015, we arrive at a value of $966 billion.
Recognizing previous research has indicated that V2V could potentially
avoid or mitigate 80% of unimpaired crashes, we have conservatively
calculated scenarios where V2V is phased in linearly, reaching maximum
crash reduction benefits of 5, 10, and 15% by 2035.

         Table VII-21--Summary of Estimated Present Value of Benefits of V2V Communication for This NPRM
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               Percentage of    2018 PV at 3%     2018 PV at 7%
                     Societal Harm  ($M)                          crashes       discount rate     discount rate
                                                                 prevented          ($M)              ($M)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$966,000....................................................             5.0          $603,620          $288,480
$966,000....................................................            10.0         1,207,230           576,950
$966,000....................................................            15.0         1,810,850           865,430
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    A more conservative approach to calculating total benefit of the
rule could be considering a function of the number of lives that would
be saved by V2V communication, multiplied by the economic value of a
life. A number of values have been used for the economic value of a
life; we compute our sensitivity analysis using values of $5-$13.4M.
Table VII-22 below presents different estimates for the 2018 value of
the benefit of the rule through 2050.

         Table VII--22 Summary of Estimated Present Value of Benefits of V2V Communication for This NPRM
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Percentage of                    2018 PV at 3%     2018 PV at 7%
            Value of a life  ($M)               fatalities      Fatalities      discount rate     discount rate
                                                 prevented       prevented          ($M)              ($M)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$5.4........................................             1.0          350.92           $38,636           $23,965
$13.4.......................................             1.0          350.92            95,874            59,468
$5.4........................................             5.0          1754.6           193,181           119,824
$13.4.......................................             5.0          1754.6           479,373           297,341
$5.4........................................            10.0          3509.2           386,360           239,648
$13.4.......................................            10.0          3509.2           958,747           594,683
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(c) Other Benefits of DSRC Communication
    The benefits shown above offset the costs, including opportunity
costs, of this proposed rule. Moreover, the beneficial uses of spectrum
for vehicle-to-vehicle communications could well increase in the
future. Over the last five years, the USDOT has sponsored the Connected
Vehicle Program under Intelligent Transportation Systems Research. This
program has identified more than fifty potential connected vehicle
applications concepts, many of which have already been prototyped and
demonstrated. As a part of this process, the component application
development programs have also conducted assessments to measure safety,
mobility, and environmental impacts. Field demonstrations have been
supplemented by estimation of difficult-to-observe impacts and
potential future impacts from broader application deployment using a
range of analytical methods. The USDOT has published documentation from
the more advanced application development efforts, including concepts
of operations, system requirements, design documents, algorithms,
functional descriptions, characterization test results, field test
evaluation results and estimation of benefits associated with these
prototypes. In total, the USDOT has identified fifty-three connected
vehicle applications that will depend on effective vehicle
communication. These fifty-three applications include thirteen safety
applications that address vehicle occupant and pedestrian safety
through communication with other vehicles as well as roadside
infrastructure. They also include fifteen applications that address
environmental quality and resource consumption, and many more that
address congestion, mobility, and data gathering.
(d) Opportunity Costs of Precluding Alternative Uses
    Decisions regarding whether to allow additional uses of spectrum
than those currently authorized by the FCC for the ITS band are not
within the scope of DOT's or NHTSA's authority. Comments on the value
of these uses will, however, be accepted. Such comments should consider
that the interagency spectrum sharing tests are not yet complete, and
it will be impossible to fully measure such benefits until the
feasibility of sharing is determined. If such sharing is possible,
those benefits will likely decrease opportunity costs associated with
mandating V2V communications. Nothing in this rulemaking would preclude
the FCC, in conjunction with DOT and NTIA, from authorizing appropriate
sharing at some future date.
    The chart below is a generic calculation of the spectrum
opportunity cost, based on preclusion of alternative uses for the
spectrum. This estimate might overstate the value of opportunity cost
if sharing is determined to be possible. We use estimated Wi-Fi values
from 2013 and earlier reports to estimate the economic value of one MHz
of

spectrum. To do this, we begin by extracting data from the largest and
most recent study of spectrum values from TAS, making several
adjustments based on our analysis.\358\ To calculate a net present
value as of 2016, we treat the annual economic value of the spectrum
beginning in 2018 and until 2050, meaning that it will generate the
same value for each year in the future. There are two assumptions
implicit in this approach: (1) The spectrum continues to generate value
into the future and (2) the value of the spectrum does not change from
year to year (i.e., the growth rate is zero).\359\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \358\ Assessment of the Economic Value of Unlicensed Spectrum in
the United States, Final Report, February 2014, Telecom Advisory
Services, LLC http://www.wififorward.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Value-of-Unlicensed-Spectrum-to-the-US-Economy-Full-Report.pdf (last
accessed Dec 8, 2016). We first remove RFID retail because it is a
very different technology from Wi-Fi and it operates at very low
frequency bands (13.56, 4.33, and 902-928 MHz (i.e., all operate at
less than 1 GHz). Second, Table C includes $34.885B of producer
surplus associated with Wi-Fi only tablets estimated as the
difference between the retail price and manufacturing costs for a
weighted average of tablet suppliers. In practice, consumers pay
above manufacturing costs for marketing, brand, and other amenities,
making this an overestimate. As a rough adjustment, we cut this
number in half to $17.44B. Adding all spectrum values from Table C
of the TAS report except for RFID retail yields a total value for
unlicensed Wi-Fi spectrum of $110 billion. Based on the CEA report,
there are a total of 638 MHz of spectrum available for unlicensed
Wi-Fi use. This includes 83 MHz in the 2.4 GHz band and 555 MHz in
the 5.1-5.8 GHz band. Dividing the TAS estimate of Wi-Fi value by
the total bandwidth gives an estimate of $172.4 million per each MHz
of spectrum.
    \359\ Other researchers including Bazelon and McHenry (2015) use
a similar approach. Bazelon and McHentry (2015) paper is available
here: http://www.brattle.com/system/publications/pdfs/000/005/168/original/Mobile_Broadband_Spectrum_-_A_Valuable_Resource_for_the_American_Economy_Bazelon_McHenry_051115.pdf (last accessed Dec 8, 2016).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The estimated present value of each additional MHz up to 2050
ranges between $1.9B and $3.4B based on whether a 7 or a 3 percent
discount rate is used, respectively.\360\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \360\ We use 3 and 7 percent discount rates to be consistent
with OMB guidelines, available here (Step 7, p. 11): https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/regpol/circular-a-4_regulatory-impact-analysis-a-primer.pdf (last accessed Dec 8,
2016).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We seek comment on whether these per-MHz figures are reasonable,
including comment on the detailed analysis in footnote 3, as well as
any alternative methodologies.

                                              Table VII-23--Summary of Estimated Present Value of Spectrum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                PV to 2050, 2018    PV to 2050, 2018
                                                                       Value                                      implementation, 3%  implementation, 7%
                            Approach                               (billions of         MHz       Billions of $/     discount rate       discount rate
                                                                        $)                              MHz         (billions of $/     (billions of $/
                                                                                MHz)                MHz)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Value of Wi-Fi........................................             110             638             0.2                 3.4                 1.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Other ways to estimate the opportunity cost of spectrum may be
feasible, including using auction values for spectrum licenses. A
method like this would require estimates of the ratio between auction
value and annual consumer surplus. A method like that would generate
far higher values than the table above because it uses licensed rather
than unlicensed spectrum as a benchmark--making it yield an estimate
that cannot be directly used to assess the value of unlicensed
spectrum. Other considerations when using the estimates above to value
the spectrum in question include:
    The value of spectrum is highly situational and the historic
spectrum value might not be a valid indication of the spectrum of the
future. Spectrum value differs with respect to variables including, but
not limited to, frequencies, size of the block or segment,
international harmonization, geographic location, the timing of the
release of new batches of spectrum, and the extent to which use is
shared or exclusive. Frequencies might be the most significant factor
to determine the value since different frequencies have different
characteristics that make useful for different applications. The most
useful bands of frequencies may be auctioned out and developed early.
The spectrum values for these frequencies may have very different
characteristics from the 5.9 GHz band and their value may exceed the
value of the 5.9 GHz.
    The cost of delivering information over spectrum varies and is a
function of the range in which it operates. Higher frequency spectrums
like 5.9 GHz broadcast over much shorter distances than lower frequency
spectrums and thus require the interaction of interoperable devices
over these short distances to transmit and receive messages in order
for applications to activate.
    Existing market values do not reflect the progressive increase of
the economic value of spectrum over time (i.e., time-dependent value).
    The above estimates yield per-MHz figures for the gross opportunity
cost that would result if spectrum in these bands were monopolized.
However, the actual opportunity cost associated with spectrum that
would result from mandating V2V in the way prescribed in this NPRM is
represented by foregone alternative uses of that spectrum, which would
be more limited.
    It is possible that all spectrum within the relevant 75 MHz will
ultimately be used for vehicle-to-vehicle communications given the
substantial safety benefits of that technology. It is, however, likely
that not all spectrum within the relevant 75 MHz will be de facto or de
jure used exclusively for the specific safety applications envisioned
by this rule, i.e., those based on transmission of the Basic Safety
Message. In particular, we propose to require BSM transmissions on a
single 10 MHz channel. Multiplying this 10 MHz by the per-MHz values
derived above yields an opportunity cost of $19-$34 billion. We seek
comment on the best framework to appropriately consider the opportunity
costs of this proposed rule across the band, taking into account
varying assumptions about spectrum usage. DOT expects to include an
estimate of the opportunity cost of spectrum as part of its RIA in a
final rule.
4. Increased Litigation Costs
    The agency recognizes the possibility of higher litigation costs
due to the cooperative nature of the V2V environment. However, the
agency reiterates that driving tasks are drivers' responsibilities. The
at-fault driver in a crash will bear the economic burden and this will
not be altered in the V2V environment. Furthermore, V2V technology is
expected to help avoid crashes and thus reduce the overall burden
imposed on legal systems and traffic courts.

D. Estimated Benefits

1. Assumptions and Overview
    In order to estimate the benefits of this rule, the agency made
several key assumptions. The agency applied the same assumptions for
adoption and vehicle fleet penetration rates as for estimating both the
costs and benefits of this proposed rule, as shown in Table VII-24 and
Table VII-25.

                                                 Table VII-24--V2V Technology Adoption Rates in Percent
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                Model year
                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      2021         2022         2023         2024         2025         2026         2027         2028
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DSRC %..........................................           50           75          100          100          100          100          100          100
Applications % *................................            0            5           10           25           40           65           90          100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* As percent of DSRC-equipped vehicles.

                                 Table VII-25--V2V Technology Fleet Penetration
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         With DSRC radios                    With apps
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
              Year                 Calendar year     Number of                       Number of
                                                     vehicles         Percent        vehicles         Percent
                                                     (million)                       (million)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            2021             8.1             3.3             0.0             0.0
5...............................            2025           68.13            27.4             6.3             5.2
10..............................            2030           144.3            55.8            87.2            33.7
15..............................            2035           208.4            77.6           163.7            61.0
20..............................            2040           253.0            90.8           226.1            81.2
25..............................            2045           276.6            96.2           265.3            92.3
30..............................            2050           291.3            98.6           286.9            96.8
35..............................            2055           300.6            99.7           298.1            98.9
40..............................            2060           305.2           100.0           304.6            99.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The agency estimated the potential benefits of the proposed rule
based upon a scenario where two safety applications, IMA and LTA, are
voluntarily adopted by industry following a DSRC-mandate. The agency
focused on these potential safety applications because we have
sufficient data and because they can be effectively enabled only by
V2V. IMA warns drivers of vehicles approaching from a lateral direction
at an intersection, while LTA warns drivers of vehicles approaching
from the opposite direction when attempting a left turn at an
intersection. The agency notes that this may not be the scenario that
actually occurs following a DSRC-mandate; manufacturers may choose to
offer other safety applications that use V2V technology beyond these
two and may offer those technologies or IMA and LTA in a time frame
different from what is considered for purposes of analysis. In
addition, manufacturers may also offer various other technologies that
use DSRC, such as V2I or V2P technologies. These other technologies may
offer benefits of a different amount than those calculated for IMA and
LTA and they may accrue over a different timeframe. The agency requests
comment on these assumptions.
    Overall, three major factors influence the potential benefits of a
V2V implementation: The size of the crash population, the safety
application effectiveness, and vehicle communication rates. The
undiscounted annual benefits thus are the product of these three
factors and can be expressed mathematically by the following generic
formula:

Bi = P * E * Ci

Where,

Bi = Annual benefits (or MY benefits) of the proposed
rule at year i,
P = Target population (crashes, fatalities, injuries, or PDOVs),
E = Effectiveness of apps (i.e., IMA or LTA), and
Ci = communication rate at year i.
(a) Target Population (P)
    The target population (P) includes crashes, fatalities, injuries,
and PDOVs. As described in Section II.A, the Safety Need, this proposed
rule is estimated to affect potentially 3.4 million light-vehicle-to-
light-vehicle crashes. This potential population excludes other crashes
scenarios. More specifically, single-vehicle crashes were excluded
based on the V2V's inherent cooperative operation, with two vehicles
communicating with each to potentially issue a warning before a crash.
Crashes with four or more vehicles were not included because the agency
does not have data to estimate how effective the safety warning
applications would be as these crashes might involve complex
interactions among vehicles. Crashes involving pedestrians and pedal-
cyclists were also excluded since these crashes might need the
communication between vehicles and persons. Crashes involving
motorcycles were excluded because the agency has not conducted any V2V
research on motorcycles. Finally, crashes involving at least one heavy
vehicle \361\ are excluded since the agency is only evaluating light
vehicle crashes at this time.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \361\ Heavy vehicles include trucks and buses with a GVWR
greater than 10,000 pounds.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Figure VII-2 depicts how the agency determined the potential target
population for both the IMA and LTA safety warning applications. In
addition, the figure also includes the corresponding monetized values
at each ``stage'' of filtering for the potential target population. As
indicated, the end result is an estimated 1.06 million crashes that
could be addressed by the IMA and LTA safety warning applications,
making up approximately 19 percent of the total police-reported
crashes. These crashes resulted in 2,372 fatalities and 0.69 million
MAIS 1-5 injuries and damaged 1.29 million vehicles. Together, these
crashes cost society $121 billion, annually. Separately, IMA crashes
resulted in 1,824 fatalities and 0.47 million MAIS

1-5 injuries and damaged 0.97 million vehicles. The IMA crashes cost
society $84 billion, annually. When compared to IMA, LTA has a smaller
number of target crashes. LTA crashes resulted in 548 fatalities and
0.22 million injuries (MAIS 1-5) and damaged 0.32 million vehicles. The
IMA crashes cost society $36 billion, annually.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP12JA17.018

    The target populations used for this analysis were retrieved from
the 2010-2013 FARS and GES. FARS is a census of fatalities that
occurred in fatal crashes on public roadways. FARS was used to derive
the incidence of fatal target crashes and associated fatalities. GES is
a sampling system of all police-reported crashes. GES was used to
derive the MAIS 1+ injuries in non-fatal target crashes and PDOVs. The
agency utilized multiple years of crash data to limit variations of
crashes and provide the best possible estimate for projecting potential
benefits.
    The variables used to define the target crashes include vehicle
forms submitted, vehicle body type, crash type, the first harmful
event, relation to roadway, roadway alignment, roadway condition,
rollover type, jackknife status, driver contributing factor, and
vehicle contributing factor. Of these variables, the driver
contributing and vehicle contributing factors were used to refine the
target population. The driver contribution factor specifies whether
driver's alertness contributed to the crashes. The vehicle contributing
factor identifies whether vehicle's component failure or defect
contributed to the crashes. Crashes where incapacitated or drowsy
drivers were involved and where vehicle mechanical failures such as
brake systems, tires, steering, and transmissions were cited as
contributing factors were excluded.
(b) Effectiveness (E)
    The agency applied effectiveness rates for IMA and LTA. The
effectiveness rate estimates are derived using the Safety Impact
Methodology (SIM) tool developed by the Department of Transportation's
Volpe Center, specifically for estimating the effectiveness of V2V
technology. In order to obtain a crash warning using V2V technology,
two V2V-equipped vehicles need to interact during a potential crash
situation--if a V2V-equipped vehicle interacts with a non-V2V-equipped
vehicle in a potential crash situation, no warning is to be expected,
because the non-equipped vehicle would produce no BSM for the equipped
vehicle to recognize and respond to. To be able to estimate the
effectiveness of advanced crash avoidance technology such as V2V, NHTSA
developed a methodology that uses available data and computer
simulation,\362\ extending current estimation capabilities and enabling
V2V technology to be ``exposed'' to more conflict situations to make up
for and potential lack of crashes in the real-world crash databases.
The methodology and simulation tool allows the agency to better
comprehend the crash avoidance potential and the performance criteria
of the V2V technology prior to the technology's actual deployment.
Extensive details on how the agency estimates effectiveness of
potential V2V safety applications can be found in Chapter 4 of the PRIA
and Chapter XII.B.1 of the V2V Readiness Report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \362\ For an overview of this methodology, see ``Implementation
of the Safety Impact Methodology Tool'' DRAFT located in Docket
NHTSA-2016-0126.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table VII-26 shows the effectiveness of IMA and LTA used for the
benefit

estimates in this proposal. As shown, IMA is estimated to prevent 43-56
percent of intersection related crashes and LTA would prevent 37-63
percent of crashes where a left turn is being attempted across oncoming
traffic.

     Table VII-26--Effectiveness of IMA and LTA Safety Applications
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Apps                       Low  (%)        High  (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
IMA.....................................              43              56
LTA.....................................              37              63
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    These estimates are adjusted slightly from the effectiveness
estimates used in the V2V Readiness Report to reflect the latest crash
data available to the agency. There are no changes in methodology for
developing the effectiveness estimate from that used in the V2V
Readiness Report. In the Readiness Report, the agency estimated values
of 41-55 percent for IMA and 36-62 percent for LTA, differences of only
one to two percent at either end of the ranges. The differences
originate in the minor adjustment in the injury probability curves for
IMA and overall the newer crash data yielded a different crash scenario
distribution. In order to account for potential uncertainty in these
effectiveness rates, the agency included lower effectiveness rates in
the uncertainty analysis for this rule. The agency requests additional
information concerning the potential effectiveness of these two
applications.
(c) Communication Rate (Ci)
    The communication rate (Ci) used the generic benefit
formula above, represents the potential probability of a crash in which
the vehicles involved are both DSRC-equipped light vehicles utilizing
the safety applications IMA and LTA. To derive this probability, the
agency first developed a projection of the number of vehicles that
would be equipped by leveraging the technology adoption rates used for
estimating the proposed rule costs. As discussed in the estimated cost
section, the proposed rule would require that all applicable vehicles
are equipped allowing for a market-driven adoption for safety
applications. The proposed requirement for DSRC radio adoption schedule
is a three year phase-in: 50 percent of the first MY vehicles, 75
percent of the second MY vehicles and 100 percent of the third MY
vehicles. For benefits estimation, the agency applied these proposed,
required adoption rates to estimated, future vehicle sales yielding the
potential vehicles that could be equipped with DSRC devices in the
overall vehicle fleet.
    The agency believes a similar, market-driven approach could take
hold for V2V technology once the equipment becomes widely available and
consumers recognize the potential benefits.
    The agency believes that IMA and LTA could be adopted as standard
equipment on a schedule similar to the ``combined'' schedules for the
FCW and LDW displayed in the NCAP data. Based on broad collection of
implementation information such as, the ITS study, NCAP data, agency
meetings with manufacturers, announcements on V2V implementation from
vehicle industry, and the cost consideration; the agency established
the a safety application adoption trend of 0% for the first MY vehicles
that have DSRC radios, 5%, 10%, 25%, 40%, 65%, 90%, and 100% for each
following MY vehicles, respectively.
    The agency believes that this adoption rate is reasonable. We note
that the pattern is similar to those shown in the NCAP data; with slow
initial rate spanning approximately two years and then increasing year
over year at a rate that would reach full adoption in the eighth year
of the implementation of the DSRC technology. Under this adoption
scenario, the benefits estimates assume IMA and LTA would not be
deployed in the first year. In the second year, with the required 75
percent DSRC installation rate and the five percent safety application
adoption among the DSRC-equipped vehicles, five percent of the total
new vehicles (= 0.05 * 0.75) are expected to have the two safety
applications. In the third year, 10 percent of the new vehicles (= 0.1
* 1.00) would have the apps, and so on so forth. Overall, the benefits
(and costs) of the proposed rule were estimated based on this specific
technology adoption scenario, as shown in Table VII-27.

                                      Table VII-27--V2V Technology Adoption Scenario for Cost and Benefit Estimates
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    1 (2021)     2 (2022)     3 (2023)     4 (2024)     5 (2025)     6 (2026)     7 (2027)     8 (2028)
                    Year (MY)                         (%)          (%)          (%)          (%)          (%)          (%)          (%)          (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DSRC............................................           50           75          100          100          100          100          100          100
Apps*...........................................            0            5           10           25           40           65           90          100
Apps Actual **..................................            0            4           10           25           40           65           90          100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* IMA and LTA of DSRC-equipped new vehicles.
** of all new vehicles.

    Table VII-28 shows the communication rates from 2021 to 2060 by
vehicle type (i.e., PCs, LTVs, and PCs and LTVs combined) separately
for IMA and LTA. As expected, the communication rates would be
relatively small in the first few years and accelerate faster when time
progresses.
    The overall communication with vehicles that had the apps would be
rare in the first three years as measured by those rates for IMA. The
rate would reach over 50 percent (51.41%) in 2034, the 14th year of the
implementation of the proposed rule. In 2039, 5 years later, the rate
would reach 75 percent. In 2044, the communication rate would reach
over 90 percent.
    For LTA, the communication rates would be smaller than the general
communication rates. In 2022, for example, the contributable rate for
LTA with vehicles equipped with the apps is about 0.02 percent, 50
percent of the overall communication rate. However, the ratio would
increase over time and narrow the difference between these two rates.
In 2034, the rate for LTA would be 41.36 percent, 80.5 percent of the
overall communicating rate.

                                                  Table VII-28--Light Vehicle Fleet Communication Rates
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                IMA                                             LTA
                  Year                     Calendar year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              PCs (%)        LTVs (%)      Combined (%)       PCs (%)        LTVs (%)      Combined (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021            0.00            0.00            0.00            0.00            0.00            0.00
2.......................................            2022            0.02            0.02            0.04            0.01            0.01            0.02
3.......................................            2023            0.13            0.13            0.26            0.07            0.07            0.14
4.......................................            2024            0.52            0.50            1.02            0.28            0.27            0.55
5.......................................            2025            1.32            1.26            2.58            0.73            0.70            1.43
6.......................................            2026            2.77            2.64            5.41            1.61            1.54            3.15
7.......................................            2027            4.94            4.71            9.65            3.06            2.92            5.98
8.......................................            2028            7.55            7.19           14.74            4.96            4.72            9.68
9.......................................            2029           10.40            9.88           20.28            7.17            6.81           13.98
10......................................            2030           13.45           12.76           26.21            9.63            9.14           18.77
11......................................            2031           16.63           15.77           32.40           12.33           11.69           24.02
12......................................            2032           19.90           18.84           38.74           15.20           14.39           29.59
13......................................            2033           23.19           21.92           45.11           18.20           17.20           35.40
14......................................            2034           26.46           24.95           51.41           21.29           20.07           41.36
15......................................            2035           29.65           27.87           57.52           24.41           22.95           47.36
16......................................            2036           32.69           30.62           63.31           27.50           25.75           53.25
17......................................            2037           35.53           33.16           68.69           30.48           28.45           58.93
18......................................            2038           38.12           35.46           73.58           33.31           30.98           64.29
19......................................            2039           40.40           37.47           77.87           35.92           33.32           69.24
20......................................            2040           42.36           39.21           81.57           38.29           35.45           73.74
21......................................            2041           43.99           40.69           84.68           40.38           37.36           77.74
22......................................            2042           45.18           42.03           87.21           42.06           39.12           81.18
23......................................            2043           46.11           43.17           89.28           43.46           40.69           84.15
24......................................            2044           46.81           44.17           90.98           44.59           42.07           86.66
25......................................            2045           47.33           45.04           92.37           45.47           43.27           88.74
26......................................            2046           47.72           45.83           93.55           46.16           44.33           90.49
27......................................            2047           48.04           46.56           94.60           46.71           45.28           91.99
28......................................            2048           48.29           47.25           95.54           47.14           46.13           93.27
29......................................            2049           48.49           47.90           96.39           47.49           46.91           94.40
30......................................            2050           48.65           48.50           97.15           47.77           47.61           95.38
31......................................            2051           48.75           49.02           97.77           47.97           48.24           96.21
32......................................            2052           48.81           49.50           98.31           48.14           48.82           96.96
33......................................            2053           48.82           49.93           98.75           48.25           49.34           97.59
34......................................            2054           48.81           50.31           99.12           48.33           49.81           98.14
35......................................            2055           48.78           50.65           99.43           48.37           50.23           98.60
36......................................            2056           48.73           50.96           99.69           48.39           50.60           98.99
37......................................            2057           48.65           51.22           99.87           48.37           50.93           99.30
38......................................            2058           48.54           51.41           99.95           48.33           51.19           99.52
39......................................            2059           48.43           51.56           99.99           48.29           51.41           99.70
40......................................            2060           48.33           51.67          100.00           48.25           51.57           99.82
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(d) Adoption Rate of IMA and LTA
    Since the agency is not mandating any applications, we next made an
assumption concerning at what rate IMA and LTA could be adopted
voluntarily by industry. We contracted with the Intelligent
Transportation Society of America (ITS America, or ITS) to conduct a
study to better understand the utilization of DSRC among stakeholders
and to investigate potential safety application deployment and product
development.\363\ As part of the effort, ITS identified an array of V2V
and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) apps and interviewed 42
stakeholders specifically about these apps' development and deployment.
The stakeholders interviewed included chipset manufacturers, mobile
device manufacturers, infrastructure industrial equipment makers,
vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and academia. Based on
the interview results, ITS America concluded that about 91 apps
(including both V2V and V2I) would likely to be deployed within 5 years
of a DSRC mandate. IMA and LTA were rated among the highest priority
apps among all the interviewees.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \363\ Impact of Light Vehicle Rule on Consumer/Aftermarket
Adoption--Dedicated Short Range Communications Market Study,
Intelligent Transportation Society of America, FHWA-JPO-17-487,
available at http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/60000/60500/60535/FHWA-JPO-17-487_Final_.pdf (last accessed Dec 12, 2016).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The ITS study confirmed many aspects of the agency's proposed
requirements and assumptions regarding potential V2V deployment
including the proposed implementation timing. However, the study was
not able to predict clearly a safety application adoption trend after
an initial deployment. To fill this gap and establish a potential
trend, the agency examined the adoption patterns of the three crash
avoiding warning systems reported as part of regular data submissions
associated with the agency's New Car Assessment Program (NCAP). The
crash avoiding warning systems are blind spot detection (BSD), forward
collision warning (FCW), and Lane Departure Warning (LDW). We note that
only FCW and LDW are currently reported on NHTSA's Safer Car
technologies as being ``Recommended Technologies,'' while BSD is
reported to NHTSA for research purposes but not, at this time,
presented to the public.
    Table VII-29 lists the adoption rates for these systems that were
offered as standard equipment and the combined adoption rates for the
technologies offered as standard or optional. As

shown, the rate of the standard equipment is relatively low, although
it increases gradually. In contrast, the rate for the optional
equipment (based on the combined rates) was much higher and the pace of
the offering these features increased faster. These warning
technologies are projected to reach the full combined deployment around
2021 based on a curve linear regression model resulting in an estimated
full deployment spanning ten years. This projected rate is absent any
sort of formal regulation beyond the inclusion in the agency's NCAP
ratings program.

                                             Table VII-29--Reported Adoption Rates by Vehicle Manufacturers
                                                                        [Percent]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        BSD                             FCW                             LDW
                          Year                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             Standard       Combined *       Standard       Combined *       Standard       Combined *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011....................................................             0.3            11.9             0.0            11.4             0.0             2.5
2012....................................................             1.0            30.0             0.0            11.4             0.0             5.9
2013....................................................             1.3            30.4             0.8            21.0             0.0            17.4
2014....................................................             0.1            27.0             2.6            22.1             0.2            15.8
2015....................................................             0.6            45.7             5.6            57.3             2.5            52.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* standard equipment and optional equipment combined.

    The agency believes a similar, market-driven approach could take
hold for V2V technology once the equipment becomes widely available and
consumers recognize the potential benefits. The agency believes that
IMA and LTA could be adopted as standard equipment on a schedule
similar to the ``combined'' schedules for the FCW and LDW displayed in
the NCAP data.
    Based on broad collection of implementation information such as,
the ITS study, NCAP data, agency meetings with manufacturers,
announcements on V2V implementation from vehicle industry, and the cost
consideration; the agency established the a safety application adoption
trend of 0% for the first MY vehicles that have DSRC radios, 5%, 10%,
25%, 40%, 65%, 90%, and 100% for each following MY vehicles,
respectively. The agency notes that the pattern is similar to those
shown in the NCAP data; with slow initial rate spanning approximately
two years and then increasing year over year at a rate that would reach
full adoption in the eighth year of the implementation of the DSRC
technology. Under this adoption scenario, IMA and LTA would not be
deployed in the first year. In the second year, with the required 75
percent DSRC installation rate and the five percent safety application
adoption among the DSRC-equipped vehicles, five percent of the total
new vehicles (= 0.05 * 0.75) are expected to have the two safety
applications. In the third year, 10 percent of the new vehicles (= 0.1
* 1.00) would have the apps, and so on so forth. Overall, the benefits
(and costs) of the proposed rule were estimated based on this specific
technology adoption scenario, as shown in Table VII-27. However, in
order to test the significant uncertainty in this assumption, we
included adoption rate as one of the variables in our uncertainty
analysis.
    The agency, though, requests comment on these assumption. Do
commenters have more concrete data concerning the potential or likely
adoption rate of these applications? Are there any other technologies
that have been voluntarily introduced into the fleet that the agency
should consider when projecting the potential adoption rate of IMA and
LTA?
2. Injury and Property Damage Benefits
(a) Annual Injury and Property Damage Benefits
(1) Maximum Annual Benefits
    The maximum annual benefits represent the crashes, fatalities,
injuries, and property damage vehicles (PDOVs) that can be reduced
annually after the full adoption of DSRC and safety related
applications.\364\ Once fully deployed, the agency estimates the
proposed rule would:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \364\ Would occur 43 years after the first implementation.

 Prevent 439,000 to 615,000 crashes annually
 equivalent to 13 to 18 percent of multiple light-vehicle
crashes
 Save 987 to 1,366 lives
 Reduce 305,000 to 418,000 MAIS 1-5 injuries,\365\ and
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \365\ MAIS (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale) represents the
maximum injury severity of an occupant at an Abbreviated Injury
Scale (AIS) level. AIS ranks individual injuries by body region on a
scale of 1 to 6: 1=minor, 2=moderate, 3=serious, 4=severe,
5=critical, and 6=maximum (untreatable).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Eliminate 537,000 to 746,000 property damage only vehicles
(PDOVs)
(2) Annual Benefits
    The annual benefits are summarized every five years from 2021 to
2060 in Table VII-30. As shown, the proposed rule would not yield
benefits in Year 1 due to the zero percent safety application adoption
rates for new vehicles in that year. However, the agency estimates that
five years after a final rule is issued, Year 5 (2025), 10,094 to
13,763 annual vehicle crashes would potentially be prevented, saving 23
to 31 lives and preventing 6,946 to 9,197 MAIS 1-5 injuries. Moreover,
the agency estimates this proposed rule has the potential to prevent
12,496 to 16,949 damaged vehicles.
    As the fleet penetration increases, the proposed rule could prevent
107,120 to 147,615 crashes, save 244 to 332 lives, and reduce 73,983 to
99,254 MAIS 1-5 injuries by Year 10, a more than ten-fold increase from
Year 5.
    After 20 years, the agency estimates about 80 percent of the
maximum benefits will be achievable. The yields an estimated to 349,914
to 487,561 crashes prevented, 789 to 1,089 lives save, and the
reduction of 242,589 to 329,909 MAIS 1-5 injuries.

                                              Table VII-30--Summary of Annual Benefits of the Proposed Rule
                                                                     [Undiscounted]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Crashes               Fatalities           MAIS 1-5 injuries             PDOVs
                    Year                       Calendar  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 year         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...........................................        2021           0           0           0           0           0           0           0           0
5...........................................        2025      10,094      13,763          23          31       6,946       9,197      12,496      16,949
10..........................................        2030     107,120     147,615         244         332      73,983      99,254     131,946     180,693
15..........................................        2035     241,740     335,287         547         751     167,329     226,278     296,835     408,920
20..........................................        2040     349,914     487,561         789       1,087     242,589     329,909     428,697     593,093
25..........................................        2045     401,894     561,737         904       1,249     278,926     380,771     491,628     682,127
30..........................................        2050     424,901     594,569         955       1,321     295,009     403,284     519,483     721,535
35..........................................        2055     435,932     610,326         980       1,355     302,723     414,094     532,831     740,437
40..........................................        2060     439,138     615,028         987       1,365     304,986     417,366     536,657     745,996
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(b) Lifetime Injury and Property Damage Benefits by Vehicle Model Year
    The lifetime benefits for a MY vehicle (also MY Benefits), as
described earlier, represent the total benefits that would be accrued
through the life of a vehicle. The MY benefits represent the total
benefits that would be accrued though the life of a vehicle. The
lifetime benefits can occur at any time during the in-use life of a
vehicle and are required to be discounted to reflect their present
values (2014 dollars). The discounting procedures for future benefits
and costs in regulatory analyses are based on the guidelines published
in OMB Circular A-4 and OMB Circular A-94 Revised.
    The agency's analysis for determining lifetime benefits uses two
approaches. One approach is a so-called ``free rider'' approach and the
other is the ``no free-rider'' approach, where the primary difference
is the treatment on the distribution of benefits from crashes involving
different MY vehicles.
    The ``free-rider approach'' is based on the notion that the
lifetime benefits of a specific MY vehicle should correspond to the
investment up to that specific MY of vehicles and that benefits should
be credited to the later MY vehicles. For example, if benefits are from
a crash that involved a MY 2021 vehicle and a MY 2030 vehicle, under
this approach, all benefits would be credited to the MY 2030 vehicle.
The MY 2021 vehicle would not receive any benefits because the benefits
would not be realized until the investment on the MY 2030 vehicles is
made. In contrast, the ``no free-rider'' approach is based on the
notion that benefits should be shared among all vehicles since the
future investment will continue because of the proposed rule. With the
same case above, the no free-rider approach allows both MY 2021 and MY
2030 vehicles to share a portion of the benefits. Additional details on
the methodology and derivation of benefits of these two approaches can
be found in Chapter V of the PRIA prepared in support of this proposal.
(1) Injury and Property Damage Benefits by Model Year and Approach
    Table VII-31 and Table VII-32 show the MY specific injury and
property damage benefits (i.e., the lifetime benefits for a specific MY
vehicle) for the ``free rider approach'' for the 3 and 7 percent
discount, respectively. In parallel, Table VII-33 and Table VII-34 show
the benefits for the ``no free-rider'' approach also at a 3 and 7
percent discount rate, respectively.
    The analysis estimates the lifetime benefits only for MYs 2021 to
2050 vehicles. For 2050 MY vehicles, its lifetime benefits would be
realized from year 2040 to year 2086. As described in the annual
benefit section, the annual benefits would be stabilized at the maximum
level around year 2062. Furthermore, after MY 2050, vehicle sales were
assumed to at the MY 2050 level. Therefore, the lifetime benefits for
vehicles newer than MY 2050 would be stabilized at the MY 2050 level.

                                 Table VII-31--MY Benefits for Light Vehicles Free-Rider Approach at 3 Percent Discount
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Crash prevented      Fatalities eliminated     MAIS 1-5 injuries             PDOVs
                    Year                      Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Low        High         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...........................................        2021           0           0           0           0           0           0           0           0
2...........................................        2022         271         369           1           1         187         246         336         455
3...........................................        2023       1,821       2,484           4           6       1,254       1,660       2,255       3,059
4...........................................        2024       8,138      11,116          19          25       5,604       7,436      10,066      13,675
5...........................................        2025      20,094      27,510          46          62      13,847      18,427      24,828      33,799
6...........................................        2026      45,766      62,828         104         142      31,567      42,151      56,477      77,072
7...........................................        2027      86,774     119,428         198         269      59,905      80,243     106,948     146,292
8...........................................        2028     125,283     172,790         285         389      86,552     116,237     154,257     211,408
9...........................................        2029     151,801     209,713         345         471     104,932     141,211     186,755     256,340
10..........................................        2030     175,685     243,053         398         545     121,501     163,794     215,991     296,855
11..........................................        2031     196,823     272,641         446         611     136,178     183,866     241,830     332,755
12..........................................        2032     215,458     298,792         488         669     149,129     201,633     264,580     364,439
13..........................................        2033     231,828     321,830         524         720     160,518     217,309     284,539     392,308
14..........................................        2034     247,041     343,282         558         767     171,108     231,922     303,068     418,229
15..........................................        2035     260,349     362,101         588         809     180,382     244,762     319,252     440,931
16..........................................        2036     271,907     378,496         614         845     188,445     255,966     333,289     460,676
17..........................................        2037     282,112     393,009         636         877     195,570     265,900     345,664     478,129
18..........................................        2038     290,458     404,930         655         903     201,406     274,078     355,763     492,430
19..........................................        2039     297,903     415,591         671         926     206,617     281,402     364,761     505,202

20..........................................        2040     305,087     425,875         687         948     211,645     288,466     373,446     517,525
21..........................................        2041     312,804     436,885         704         972     217,039     296,015     382,788     530,741
22..........................................        2042     305,604     427,030         688         950     212,077     289,414     373,891     518,632
23..........................................        2043     308,426     431,146         694         959     214,065     292,270     377,270     523,513
24..........................................        2044     310,949     434,815         699         967     215,841     294,812     380,294     527,871
25..........................................        2045     313,325     438,253         705         974     217,510     297,187     383,150     531,965
26..........................................        2046     315,443     441,309         709         981     218,996     299,295     385,700     535,611
27..........................................        2047     317,611     444,417         714         987     220,514     301,432     388,318     539,332
28..........................................        2048     319,665     447,353         719         994     221,951     303,447     390,802     542,853
29..........................................        2049     321,616     450,138         723       1,000     223,315     305,356     393,165     546,196
30..........................................        2050     323,726     453,138         728       1,006     224,788     307,409     395,724     549,803
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                 Table VII-32--MY Benefits for Light Vehicles Free-Rider Approach at 7 Percent Discount
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Crash prevented      Fatalities eliminated     MAIS 1-5 injuries             PDOVs
                    Year                      Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Low        High         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...........................................        2021           0           0           0           0           0           0           0           0
2...........................................        2022         256         348           1           1         176         232         317         429
3...........................................        2023       1,703       2,322           4           5       1,172       1,552       2,109       2,860
4...........................................        2024       7,517      10,264          17          23       5,175       6,865       9,300      12,630
5...........................................        2025      18,321      25,071          42          57      12,623      16,789      22,643      30,811
6...........................................        2026      41,157      56,470          94         128      28,383      37,874      50,801      69,294
7...........................................        2027      77,149     106,128         176         239      53,251      71,286      95,110     130,038
8...........................................        2028     110,525     152,362         251         343      76,343     102,466     136,116     186,464
9...........................................        2029     133,399     184,211         303         414      92,198     124,008     164,150     225,223
10..........................................        2030     154,035     213,015         349         478     106,513     143,518     189,411     260,228
11..........................................        2031     172,397     238,716         391         535     119,263     160,954     211,857     291,412
12..........................................        2032     188,544     261,378         427         585     130,486     176,350     231,570     318,868
13..........................................        2033     202,920     281,609         459         630     140,486     190,116     249,097     343,341
14..........................................        2034     216,257     300,416         489         672     149,771     202,927     265,341     366,065
15..........................................        2035     227,911     316,898         515         708     157,892     214,173     279,513     385,947
16..........................................        2036     238,068     331,308         537         740     164,978     224,022     291,846     403,300
17..........................................        2037     247,120     344,183         558         768     171,299     232,835     302,824     418,783
18..........................................        2038     254,424     354,622         574         791     176,407     239,999     311,659     431,301
19..........................................        2039     260,956     363,981         588         811     180,980     246,431     319,551     442,510
20..........................................        2040     267,247     372,995         602         831     185,384     252,625     327,152     453,305
21..........................................        2041     273,843     382,418         617         851     189,997     259,091     335,132     464,608
22..........................................        2042     267,553     373,820         602         832     185,665     253,336     327,356     454,035
23..........................................        2043     270,054     377,472         608         839     187,427     255,872     330,347     458,363
24..........................................        2044     272,178     380,572         612         846     188,924     258,023     332,888     462,038
25..........................................        2045     274,288     383,630         617         853     190,407     260,137     335,424     465,677
26..........................................        2046     276,078     386,219         621         858     191,664     261,926     337,576     468,762
27..........................................        2047     278,074     389,079         625         864     193,061     263,891     339,986     472,186
28..........................................        2048     279,772     391,511         629         870     194,250     265,562     342,038     475,099
29..........................................        2049     281,380     393,809         633         875     195,374     267,140     343,983     477,855
30..........................................        2050     283,192     396,388         637         880     196,640     268,906     346,180     480,956
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Table VII-33--MY Benefits for Light Vehicles No Free-Rider Approach at 3 Percent Discount
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Crash prevented      Fatalities eliminated     MAIS 1-5 injuries             PDOVs
                    Year                      Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Low        High         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...........................................        2021           0           0           0           0           0           0           0           0
2...........................................        2022       4,006       5,506           9          12       2,764       3,697       4,941       6,750
3...........................................        2023      12,297      16,917          28          38       8,488      11,363      15,159      20,727
4...........................................        2024      34,161      47,041          78         106      23,588      31,616      42,093      57,606
5...........................................        2025      59,813      82,461         136         186      41,316      55,459      73,659     100,913
6...........................................        2026     104,216     143,863         237         323      72,020      96,827     128,262     175,926
7...........................................        2027     153,676     212,415         349         477     106,247     143,074     189,014     259,566
8...........................................        2028     180,917     250,375         410         562     125,133     168,761     222,387     305,740
9...........................................        2029     190,032     263,281         430         590     131,488     177,573     233,465     321,299
10..........................................        2030     199,389     276,526         451         619     138,010     186,614     244,840     337,269
11..........................................        2031     207,808     288,476         470         645     143,885     194,784     255,061     351,656
12..........................................        2032     215,391     299,268         487         669     149,181     202,173     264,254     364,628
13..........................................        2033     222,098     308,843         502         690     153,870     208,741     272,371     376,118
14..........................................        2034     228,851     318,485         517         711     158,591     215,353     280,546     387,688

15..........................................        2035     234,712     326,883         530         729     162,695     221,125     287,627     397,746
16..........................................        2036     239,796     334,194         541         745     166,258     226,159     293,758     406,483
17..........................................        2037     244,444     340,890         551         760     169,518     230,774     299,356     414,478
18..........................................        2038     248,150     346,265         559         771     172,124     234,492     303,807     420,872
19..........................................        2039     251,493     351,122         566         782     174,475     237,855     307,817     426,644
20..........................................        2040     254,958     356,134         574         792     176,909     241,317     311,982     432,615
21..........................................        2041     258,973     361,900         583         805     179,722     245,284     316,828     439,511
22..........................................        2042     251,474     351,552         566         782     174,540     238,321     307,596     426,854
23..........................................        2043     252,797     353,515         569         786     175,478     239,695     309,167     429,160
24..........................................        2044     254,138     355,482         572         790     176,425     241,064     310,767     431,486
25..........................................        2045     255,409     357,336         574         794     177,320     242,350     312,289     433,684
26..........................................        2046     256,606     359,072         577         798     178,162     243,551     313,725     435,749
27..........................................        2047     257,844     360,856         580         802     179,030     244,781     315,217     437,879
28..........................................        2048     258,876     362,342         582         805     179,754     245,805     316,460     439,653
29..........................................        2049     259,929     363,853         584         808     180,492     246,844     317,732     441,462
30..........................................        2050     261,241     365,723         587         812     181,408     248,125     319,322     443,708
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Table VII-34--MY Benefits for Light Vehicles No Free-Rider Approach at 7 Percent Discount
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Crash prevented      Fatalities eliminated     MAIS 1-5 injuries             PDOVs
                    Year                      Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Low        High         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...........................................        2021           0           0           0           0           0           0           0           0
2...........................................        2022       3,026       4,154           7           9       2,087       2,787       3,735       5,096
3...........................................        2023       9,423      12,946          21          29       6,501       8,689      11,624      15,874
4...........................................        2024      26,555      36,520          60          82      18,328      24,527      32,742      44,755