[Federal Register: May 25, 2010 (Volume 75, Number 100)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Page 29205-29208]
[DOCID:fr25my10-9]

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DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

Federal Emergency Management Agency

44 CFR Part 65

[Docket ID FEMA-2010-0003; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1123]

Changes in Flood Elevation Determinations

AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS.

ACTION: Interim rule.

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SUMMARY: This interim rule lists communities where modification of the
Base (1% annual-chance) Flood Elevations (BFEs) is appropriate because
of new scientific or technical data. New flood insurance premium rates
will be calculated from the modified BFEs for new buildings and their
contents.

DATES: These modified BFEs are currently in effect on the dates listed
in the table below and revise the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) in
effect prior to this determination for the listed communities.
    From the date of the second publication of these changes in a
newspaper of local circulation, any person has ninety (90) days in
which to request through the community that the Deputy Federal
Insurance and Mitigation Administrator reconsider the changes. The
modified BFEs may be changed during the 90-day period.

ADDRESSES: The modified BFEs for each community are available for
inspection at the office of the Chief Executive Officer of each
community. The respective addresses are listed in the table below.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kevin C. Long, Acting Chief,
Engineering Management Branch, Mitigation Directorate, Federal
Emergency Management Agency, 500 C Street, SW., Washington, DC 20472,
(202) 646-2820, or (e-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The modified BFEs are not listed for each
community in this interim rule. However, the address of the Chief
Executive Officer of the community where the modified BFE
determinations are available for inspection is provided.
    Any request for reconsideration must be based on knowledge of
changed conditions or new scientific or technical data.
    The modifications are made pursuant to section 201 of the Flood
Disaster Protection Act of 1973, 42 U.S.C. 4105, and are in accordance
with the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, 42 U.S.C. 4001 et seq.,
and with 44 CFR part 65.
    For rating purposes, the currently effective community number is
shown and must be used for all new policies and renewals.
    The modified BFEs are the basis for the floodplain management
measures that the community is required either to adopt or to show
evidence of being already in effect in order to qualify or to remain
qualified for participation in the National Flood Insurance Program
(NFIP).
    These modified BFEs, together with the floodplain management
criteria required by 44 CFR 60.3, are the minimum that are required.
They should not be construed to mean that the community must change any
existing ordinances that are more stringent in their floodplain
management requirements. The community may at any time enact stricter
requirements of its own or pursuant to policies established by other

Federal, State, or regional entities. The changes in BFEs are in
accordance with 44 CFR 65.4.
    National Environmental Policy Act. This interim rule is
categorically excluded from the requirements of 44 CFR part 10,
Environmental Consideration. An environmental impact assessment has not
been prepared.
    Regulatory Flexibility Act. As flood elevation determinations are
not within the scope of the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5 U.S.C. 601-
612, a regulatory flexibility analysis is not required.
    Regulatory Classification. This interim rule is not a significant
regulatory action under the criteria of section 3(f) of Executive Order
12866 of September 30, 1993, Regulatory Planning and Review, 58 FR
51735.
    Executive Order 13132, Federalism. This interim rule involves no
policies that have federalism implications under Executive Order 13132,
Federalism.
    Executive Order 12988, Civil Justice Reform. This interim rule
meets the applicable standards of Executive Order 12988.

List of Subjects in 44 CFR Part 65

    Flood insurance, Floodplains, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.

0
Accordingly, 44 CFR part 65 is amended to read as follows:

PART 65--[AMENDED]

0
1. The authority citation for part 65 continues to read as follows:

    Authority: 42 U.S.C. 4001 et seq.; Reorganization Plan No. 3 of
1978, 3 CFR, 1978 Comp., p. 329; E.O. 12127, 44 FR 19367, 3 CFR,
1979 Comp., p. 376.

Sec.  65.4  [Amended]

0
2. The tables published under the authority of Sec.  65.4 are amended
as follows:

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                                                             Date and name of
         State and county           Location and case No.     newspaper where     Chief executive officer   Effective date of  modification   Community
                                                           notice was published         of community                                             No.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alabama:
    Shelby........................  Town of Calera (09-04- March 24, 2010;       The Honorable George W.    July 29, 2010..................       010373
                                     0261P).                March 31, 2010;       Roy, Mayor, Town of
                                                            Shelby County         Calera, P.O. Box 177,
                                                            Reporter.             Calera, AL 35040.
    Shelby........................  Unincorporated areas   March 24, 2010;       The Honorable Lindsey      July 29, 2010..................       010191
                                     of Shelby County (09-  March 31, 2010;       Allison, Chairperson,
                                     04-0261P).             Shelby County         Shelby County
                                                            Reporter.             Commission, P.O. Box
                                                                                467, Columbiana, AL
                                                                                35051.
Arizona:
    Maricopa......................  City of Glendale (09-  March 18, 2010;       The Honorable Elaine M.    July 23, 2010..................       040045
                                     09-2335P).             March 25, 2010;       Scruggs, Mayor, City of
                                                            Arizona Business      Glendale, 5850 West
                                                            Gazette.              Glendale Avenue,
                                                                                Glendale, AZ 85301.
    Maricopa......................  Unincorporated areas   March 18, 2010;       The Honorable Don          July 23, 2010..................       040037
                                     of Maricopa County     March 25, 2010;       Stapley, Chairman,
                                     (09-09-2335P).         Arizona Business      Maricopa County Board of
                                                            Gazette.              Supervisors, 301 West
                                                                                Jefferson Street,
                                                                                Phoenix, AZ 85003.
California:
    Riverside.....................  City of Perris (10-09- March 31, 2010;       The Honorable Daryl R.     July 29, 2010..................       060258
                                     0106P).                April 7, 2010; The    Busch, Mayor, City of
                                                            Perris Progress.      Perris, 101 North D
                                                                                Street, Perris, CA 92570.
    Riverside.....................  City of Riverside (09- March 10, 2010;       The Honorable Ronald O.    February 26, 2010..............       060260
                                     09-1506P).             March 17, 2010; The   Loveridge, Mayor, City
                                                            Press-Enterprise.     of Riverside, 3900 Main
                                                                                Street, Riverside, CA
                                                                                92522.
Florida:
    Miami-Dade....................  City of Sunny Isles    March 15, 2010;       The Honorable Norman S.    February 26, 2010..............       120688
                                     Beach (09-04-8292P).   March 22, 2010;       Edelcup, Mayor, City of
                                                            Miami Daily           Sunny Isles Beach, 18070
                                                            Business Review.      Collins Avenue, Suite
                                                                                250, Sunny Isles Beach,
                                                                                FL 33160.
    Osceola.......................  City of St. Cloud (09- March 25, 2010;       The Honorable Donna Hart,  July 30, 2010..................       120191
                                     04-6066P).             April 1, 2010;        Mayor, City of St.
                                                            Osceola News-         Cloud, 1300 9th Street,
                                                            Gazette.              St. Cloud, FL 34769.
    Polk..........................  Unincorporated areas   March 31, 2010;       The Honorable Bob          August 5, 2010.................       120261
                                     of Polk County (09-    April 7, 2010; Polk   English, Chairman, Polk
                                     04-8238P).             County Democrat.      County Board of County
                                                                                Commissioners, P.O. Box
                                                                                9005, Drawer BC01,
                                                                                Bartow, FL 33831.
    Volusia.......................  City of Deltona (09-   March 22, 2010;       The Honorable Dennis       July 27, 2010..................       120677
                                     04-1747P).             March 29, 2010; The   Mulder, Mayor, City of
                                                            Beacon.               Deltona, 2345 Providence
                                                                                Boulevard, Deltona, FL
                                                                                32725.
Georgia:
    Catoosa.......................  City of Ringgold (09-  March 24, 2010;       The Honorable Joe Barger,  July 29, 2010..................       130029
                                     04-6882P).             March 31, 2010; The   Mayor, City of Ringgold,
                                                            Catoosa County News.  150 Tennessee Street,
                                                                                Ringgold, GA 30736.
    Catoosa.......................  Unincorporated areas   March 24, 2010;       The Honorable Keith        July 29, 2010..................       130028
                                     of Catoosa County      March 31, 2010; The   Greene, Chairman,
                                     (09-04-6882P).         Catoosa County News.  Catoosa County Board of
                                                                                Commissioners, 800
                                                                                Lafayette Street,
                                                                                Ringgold, GA 30736.
    Clayton.......................  City of Morrow (09-04- February 12, 2010;    The Honorable Jim          June 21, 2010..................       130045
                                     4735P).                Februrary 19, 2010;   Millirons, Mayor, City
                                                            Clayton News Daily.   of Morrow, 1500 Morrow
                                                                                Road, Morrow, GA 30260.
    Cobb..........................  City of Smyrna (09-04- March 12, 2010;       The Honorable A. Max       February 26, 2010..............       130057
                                     6852P).                March 19, 2010;       Bacon, Mayor, City of
                                                            Marietta Daily        Smyrna, 2800 King
                                                            Journal.              Street, Smyrna, GA 30080.
    Cobb..........................  Unincorporated areas   March 12, 2010;       The Honorable Samuel S.    February 26, 2010..............       130052
                                     of Cobb County (09-    March 19, 2010;       Olens, Chairman, Cobb
                                     04-6852P).             Marietta Daily        County Board of
                                                            Journal.              Commissioners, 100
                                                                                Cherokee Street,
                                                                                Marietta, GA 30090.
    Columbia......................  Unincorporated areas   March 14, 2010;       The Honorable Ron C.       July 19, 2010..................       130059
                                     of Columbia County     March 21, 2010; The   Cross, Chairman,
                                     (09-04-4792P).         Columbia County       Columbia County Board of
                                                            News-Times.           Commissioners, P.O. Box
                                                                                498, Evans, GA 30809.

    Fulton........................  City of Atlanta (09-   March 12, 2010;       The Honorable Kasim Reed,  February 26, 2010..............       135160
                                     04-6852P).             March 19, 2010;       Mayor, City of Atlanta,
                                                            Fulton Daily Report.  55 Trinity Avenue,
                                                                                Atlanta, GA 30303.
Illinois:
    Will..........................  Village of Mokena (09- March 25, 2010;       The Honorable Joseph W.    July 30, 2010..................       170705
                                     05-4682P).             April 1, 2010;        Werner, Mayor, Village
                                                            Mokena Messenger.     of Mokena, 11004
                                                                                Carpenter Street,
                                                                                Mokena, IL 60448.
    Will..........................  Village of Romeoville  March 25, 2010;       The Honorable John Noak,   July 30, 2010..................       170711
                                     (09-05-4629P).         April 1, 2010; The    Mayor, Village of
                                                            Herald News.          Romeoville, 13 Montrose
                                                                                Drive, Romeoville, IL
                                                                                60446.
    Will..........................  Unincorporated areas   March 25, 2010;       The Honorable Lawrence M.  July 30, 2010..................       170695
                                     of Will County (09-    April 1, 2010; The    Walsh, Chairman, Will
                                     05-4629P).             Herald News.          County Board of
                                                                                Supervisors, 302 North
                                                                                Chicago Street, Joliet,
                                                                                IL 60432.
Mississippi:
    Rankin........................  City of Brandon (09-   March 31, 2010;       The Honorable Tim          March 25, 2010.................       280143
                                     04-6879P).             April 7, 2010;        Coulter, Mayor, City of
                                                            Rankin County News.   Brandon, P.O. Box 1539,
                                                                                Brandon, MS 39043.
    Rankin........................  Unincorporated areas   March 31, 2010;       The Honorable Jay Bishop,  March 25, 2010.................       280142
                                     of Rankin County (09-  April 7, 2010;        Chair, Rankin County
                                     04-6879P).             Rankin County News.   Board of Supervisors,
                                                                                211 East Government
                                                                                Street, Suite A,
                                                                                Brandon, MS 39042.
North Carolina:
    Dare..........................  Town of Kill Devil     November 10, 2009;    The Honorable Raymond      October 30, 2009...............       375353
                                     Hills (09-04-6827P).   November 17, 2009;    Sturza, Mayor, Town of
                                                            The Coastland Times.  Kill Devil Hills, P.O.
                                                                                Box 1719, Kill Devil
                                                                                Hills, NC 27948.
    Durham........................  City of Durham (09-04- November 20, 2009;    The Honorable William V.   April 5, 2010..................       370086
                                     5502P).                November 27, 2009;    Bell, Mayor, City of
                                                            The Herald Sun.       Durham, 101 City Hall
                                                                                Plaza, Durham, NC 27701.
    Forsyth.......................  City of Winston-Salem  January 5, 2010;      The Honorable Allen        May 12, 2010...................       375360
                                     (09-04-7422P).         January 12, 2010;     Joines, Mayor, City of
                                                            Winston-Salem         Winston-Salem, P.O. Box
                                                            Journal.              2511, Winston-Salem, NC
                                                                                27102.
    Guilford......................  City of Greensboro     November 30, 2009;    The Honorable Yvonne J.    April 6, 2010..................       375351
                                     (09-04-6072P).         December 7, 2009;     Johnson, Mayor, City of
                                                            Greensboro News &     Greensboro, P.O. Box
                                                            Record.               3136, Greensboro, NC
                                                                                27402.
    McDowell......................  Unincorporated areas   January 22, 2010;     Mr. Charles Abernathy,     June 1, 2010...................       370148
                                     of McDowell County     January 29, 2010;     County Manager, McDowell
                                     (09-04-1274P).         The McDowell News.    County, 60 East Court
                                                                                Street, Marion, NC 28752.
    Orange........................  Town of Carrboro (09-  November 20, 2009;    The Honorable Mark         March 29, 2010.................       370275
                                     04-7185P).             November 27, 2009;    Chilton, Mayor, Town of
                                                            Chapel Hill Herald.   Carrboro, 301 West Main
                                                                                Street, Carrboro, NC
                                                                                27510.
    Orange........................  Town of Chapel Hill    December 9, 2009;     The Honorable Kevin Foy,   April 15, 2010.................       370180
                                     (08-04-4997P).         December 16, 2009;    Mayor, Town of Chapel
                                                            Chapel Hill Herald.   Hill, 405 Martin Luther
                                                                                King Jr. Boulevard,
                                                                                Chapel Hill, NC 27514.
    Wake..........................  City of Raleigh (09-   January 20, 2010;     The Honorable Charles      May 27, 2010...................       370243
                                     04-4425P).             January 27, 2010;     Meeker, Mayor, City of
                                                            The News & Observer.  Raleigh, 222 West
                                                                                Hargett Street, Raleigh,
                                                                                NC 27602.
    Wake..........................  Unincorporated areas   November 30, 2009;    Mr. David C. Cooke, Wake   April 6, 2010..................       370368
                                     of Wake County (08-    December 7, 2009;     County Manager, 337
                                     04-4911P).             The News & Observer.  South Salisbury Street,
                                                                                Suite 1100, Raleigh, NC
                                                                                27602.
Ohio:
    Franklin......................  City of Columbus (09-  March 12, 2010;       The Honorable Michael B.   July 19, 2010..................       390170
                                     05-4021P).             March 19, 2010; The   Coleman, Mayor, City of
                                                            Columbus Dispatch.    Columbus, 90 West Broad
                                                                                Street, Columbus, OH
                                                                                43215.
    Franklin......................  City of Whitehall (09- March 12, 2010;       The Honorable John A.      July 19, 2010..................       390180
                                     05-4021P).             March 19, 2010; The   Wolfe, Mayor, City of
                                                            Columbus Dispatch.    Whitehall, 360 South
                                                                                Yearling Road,
                                                                                Whitehall, OH 43213.
    Warren........................  City of Monroe (09-05- March 5, 2010; March  The Honorable Robert       July 9, 2010...................       390042
                                     1088P).                12, 2010; The         Routson, Mayor, City of
                                                            Middletown Journal.   Monroe, P.O. Box 330,
                                                                                Monroe, OH 45050.
Tennessee: Madison................  Unincorporated areas   March 10, 2010;       The Honorable Jimmy        July 15, 2010..................       470112
                                     of Madison County      March 17, 2010;       Harris, Mayor, Madison
                                     (09-04-3077P).         Jackson Sun.          County, 100 East Main
                                                                                Street, Suite 302,
                                                                                Jackson, TN 38301.
Texas:
    Bexar.........................  City of San Antonio    April 2, 2010; April  The Honorable Julian       August 9, 2010.................       480045
                                     (09-06-2985P).         9, 2010; San          Castro, Mayor, City of
                                                            Antonio Express-      San Antonio, P.O. Box
                                                            News.                 839966, San Antonio, TX
                                                                                78283.
    Bexar.........................  City of San Antonio    March 31, 2010;       The Honorable Julian       April 22, 2010.................       480045
                                     (08-06-2113P).         April 7, 2010;        Castro, Mayor, City of
                                                            Daily Commercial      San Antonio, P.O. Box
                                                            Recorder.             839966, San Antonio, TX
                                                                                78283.
    Bexar.........................  City of San Antonio    March 19, 2010;       The Honorable Julian       April 7, 2010..................       480045
                                     (09-06-2177P).         March 26, 2010;       Castro, Mayor, City of
                                                            Daily Commercial      San Antonio, P.O. Box
                                                            Recorder.             839966, San Antonio, TX
                                                                                78283.
Utah: Weber.......................  City of Ogden (09-08-  March 19, 2010;       The Honorable Matthew R.   July 26, 2010..................       490189
                                     0418P).                March 26, 2010;       Godfrey, Mayor, City of
                                                            Ogden Standard-       Ogden, 2549 Washington
                                                            Examiner.             Boulevard, Suite 910,
                                                                                Ogden, UT 84401.
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(Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance No. 97.022, ``Flood
Insurance.'')

    Dated: April 30, 2010.
Sandra K. Knight,
Deputy Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administrator, Mitigation,
Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency.
[FR Doc. 2010-12478 Filed 5-24-10; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 9110-12-P


APPENDIX C C. 1 PROBABILISTIC EXPOSURE/ RESPONSE RELATIONSHIPS Figures C. 1 and C. 2 ( which are Figures B. 28 and B. 29, respectively, from Whitfield et al., 1996) show the probabilistic exposure response relationships for FEV 1 decrement

15% and

20%, derived from Folinsbee et al. ( 1988), Horstman et al. ( 1990), and McDonnell et al. ( 1991) for 8 hr exposures and individuals engaged in moderate exertion. The small squares indicate the response rates at the ozone concentrations at which subjects were exposed in these studies ( 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 ppm), and the short horizontal line segments above and below the data point, which are connected by a line segment, indicate the 90% Credible Interval ( CI). For example, for FEV 1 decrement

15%, the response rate at 0.08 ppm was about 18%, and the 90% CI about this value is about 10 28%; the derived 90% CI compares favorably to this range. The " derived" 90% CI and the " experimental" CIs compare less favorably at 0.12 ppm because the linear regression used to fit the data does not capture the nonlinear characteristics of the data. The derived and experimental CIs for other endpoints compare more favorably at all ozone concentrations for the FEV 1

20% endpoint. Figures for 31 other endpoints are given in Appendix B of Whitfield et al. ( 1996). Characteristics ( i. e., parameters of functions fit to the data, and regression r2 values) of functions representing exposure response relationships for 33 endpoints are listed in Table C. 1 and C. 2 ( Tables 3.7 and 3.8, respectively, from Whitfield et al., 1996). C 2 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.00 0.20 20 40 60 80 0 100 O3 Concentration ( ppm) .05 frac .25 frac .50 frac .75 frac .95 frac data 90% CI Legend:

0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.00 0.20 20 40 60 80 0 100 O3 Concentration ( ppm) .05 frac .25 frac .50 frac .75 frac .95 frac data 90% CI Legend: FIGURE C. 1 Probabilistic Exposure Response Relationship for FEV1 Decrement

15% Derived from Folinsbee et al. ( 1988), Horstman et al. ( 1990), and McDonnell et al. ( 1991) [ for 8 hr exposures, heavy exertion; includes data, medians, and 90% CIs for data and relationship]

FIGURE C. 2 Probabilistic Exposure Response Relationship for FEV1 Decrement

20% Derived from Folinsbee et al. ( 1988), Horstman et al. ( 1990), and McDonnell et al. ( 1991) [ for 8 hr exposures, heavy exertion; includes data, medians, and 90% CIs for data and relationship] C 3 TABLE C. 1 Summary of Functions Fit to Experimental Data C FEV1 Decrement C Corrected for Exercise in Clean Air Study Endpointa Function a b d e r2 Avol et al., 1984 ( 1.33 hrs) DFEV1

10%

DFEV1

15%

DFEV1

20% Linear Linear Linear  0.2395  0.2400  0.2395 3.4388 2.9713 2.6825 0.98 0.99 0.99 Kulle et al., 1985 ( 2 hrs) DFEV1

10%

DFEV1

15%

DFEV1

20% Linear Linear Linear  0.3225  0.2600  0.2375 2.3500 1.6000 1.2500 0.95 0.93 0.89 McDonnell et al.,

1983 ( 2.5 hrs) DFEV1

10%

DFEV1

15%

DFEV1

20% Logistic Logistic Logistic 0.6420 0.4968 0.3347 5.5996 9.4948 12.0073  27.2927  45.3838  60.4547 0.99 1.00 1.00 Seal et al., 1993 ( 2.33 hrs) DFEV1

10%

DFEV1

15%

DFEV1

20% Probit Probit Probit  1.0276  0.6639  0.3259 0.7917 0.8401 0.9192 0.99 0.99 0.97 Folinsbee et al.,

1988; Horstman et al., 1990; McDonnell et al.,

1991 ( 8 hrs) DFEV1

10%

DFEV1

15%

DFEV1

20% Linear Linear Linear  0.0980  0.2087  0.1462 5.0000 4.9000 2.9250 1.00 1.00 0.98 aDFEV1 means forced expiratory volume ( in 1 sec.) decrement. C 4 TABLE C. 2 Summary of Functions Fit to Experimental Data C Symptoms C Corrected for Exercise in Clean Air Study Endpointa Function a b d e r2 Avol et al., 1984 ( 1.33 hrs) Any lower respiratory M/ S lower resp Linear Linear  0.2084  0.0902 2.6824 0.5206 0.99 0.94 Kulle et al., 1985 ( 2 hrs) Any cough Any PDI M/ S cough M/ S PDI Linear Linear Linear Linear  0.2650  0.4550  0.1626  0.5250 3.0000 3.8000 0.8675 3.0000 0.97 0.79  0.33b 0.72 McDonnell et al.,

1983 ( 2.5 hrs) Any cough Any PDI M/ S cough M/ S PDI Probit Probit Linear Linear  2.0954  1.6071 0.0062  0.0427 1.2098 1.5124 1.2604 1.1512 0.99 0.96 0.70 0.96 Seal et al., 1993 ( 2.33 hrs) Any cough Any PDI M/ S cough M/ S PDI Lognormal Lognormal Linear Probit 0.2469 0.2464  0.1445  0.3209 1.9248 2.3641 1.3704 0.9317 0.97 0.99 0.97 0.96 Folinsbee et al.,

1988; Horstman et al., 1990; McDonnell et al.,

1991 ( 8 hrs) Any cough Any PDI M/ S cough M/ S PDI Linear Linear Linear Linear  0.2928 0.7372  0.1747  0.3087 5.0750 10.1750 2.3000 3.7000 0.54 1.00 0.88 0.93 aInitializations: M/ S means moderate or severe, PDI means pain on deep inspiration.

bThe data do not support a meaningful exposure response relationship for this health endpoint. The negative r2 value flags this situation. C 5 1The representative distribution is obtained by computing the average cumulative probability at selected points along the X axis. This calculation, like the risk calculations described earlier, implicitly assumes that the distributions are perfectly correlated. It may be argued that perfect correlation, while not correct, is more reasonable that perfect independence, and there is no basis for choosing any other degree of correlation between these two extremes. C. 2 HEADCOUNT RISK RESULTS Risk results for each endpoint are available in the form of 10 probability distributions for each air quality scenario. Since there are nine scenarios, it is not practical to plot all of the distributions on one figure because the figure would be quite messy. The nine air quality scenarios include: one for baseline (" As Is") conditions; two for 1 hour, 1 exceedance standards ( 1112 and 1110); four for 8 hour, 1 exceedance standards ( 8110, 8109, 8108, 8107); and two for 8 hour, 5 exceedance standards ( 8508, 8509). The first digit in the code for each standard indicates the averaging time, the second digit specifies the number of exceedances, and the last two digits specify the standard expressed in pphm. For example, 8508 indicates an 8 hour, 5 exceedances standard with O 3 concentration set at 8 pphm or 0.08 ppm.

To gain insight about the risk implications of the air quality scenarios, we developed " representative distributions" and " Box plots." These are shown in Figures C. 3 20 and C. 21 23, respectively. Figures C. 24 26 estimate the number of times that responders ( i. e., outdoor children who experience a specific condition, such as having FEV 1 decrements

15%) respond.

C. 2.1 Representative Risk Distributions Figure C. 3, which contains representative distributions, shows two sets of nine plots for FEV 1 decrement

15%, 8 hr exposures, moderate exertion, Chicago, and children. The top half of the figure shows representative distributions over the number of children experiencing the effect one or more times ( i. e., persons basis), and the bottom half shows representative distributions over the number of times any child experiences the effect ( i. e., person occurrences basis). Each representative distribution gives some idea of the range of results among each set of 10 distributions. There is one representative distribution for each of nine air quality scenarios. Each plot is " representative" of the 10 distributions for a particular scenario. Since there are only 9 plots instead of 90, it is easier to see patterns. Each of these plots is a valid cumulative probability distribution. 1 The plot indicates, for example, that the median number of children in Chicago who may experience FEV 1 decrements

15% under as is air quality is around 65 thousand. When the most stringent standard ( 8107) is just attained, the median estimate is about 15 thousand children.

C. 2.2 Box Plots for Risk Results Box plots provide another perspective about risk results. Each Box plot displays the ranges of the medians ( or 0.5 fractile), 0.05 fractiles, and 0.95 fractiles of 10 risk distributions that result from the 10 pNEM exposure distributions that are available. These ranges are represented by rectangles in the figures ( unless there is no range, in which case the rectangle " collapses" into a horizontal line). There are 3 rectangles above the code letter for each standard. The top rectangle represents the range of the 0.95 fractiles, the middle rectangle represents the range of the medians, and the bottom rectangle represents the range of the 0.05 fractiles. A line connects the bottom of the 0.95 fractile rectangle and the top of the 0.05 fractile rectangle and passes through the 0.5 fractile rectangle. With this format, results for 81 scenarios ( 9 scenarios for each of 9 urban areas) can be displayed in one figure. For these plots, however, we switched from numbers of persons or person occurrences to percentage of persons responding. As shown in C 6 Figure C. 3, under as is conditions in Chicago, the median risk estimates for the percentage of children having FEV 1 decrements

15% vary from 13 14%, the 0.95 fractiles vary from 21 22%, and the 0.05 fractiles vary from 7 8%. Box plots have the following characteristics. If the risk distributions for a particular air quality scenario are quite " similar," the rectangles will be small. If the variance of a risk distribution is small, the rectangles will be close together. If the distributions are spaced far enough apart ( indicative of widely varying risk estimates for different pNEM runs), rectangles will overlap. C 7 20 40 60 80 100 0 120 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 900 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 3 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, Chicago, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 8 5 10 15 20 25 0 30 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 50 100 150 200 250 0 300 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 4 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, Denver, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 80 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 92 183 275 367 458 0 550 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 5 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, Houston, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 10 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 350 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 4000 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 6 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, Los Angeles, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 11 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 35 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 350 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 7 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, Miami, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 12 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 0 225 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 500 1000 0 1500 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 8 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, New York, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 13 20 40 60 80 0 100 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 200 400 600 800 0 1000 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 9 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, Philadelphia, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 14 5 10 15 20 25 0 30 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 50 100 150 200 250 0 300 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 10 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, St. Louis, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 70 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 108 217 325 433 542 0 650 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

15% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 11 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

15%, Washington DC, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 70 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 350 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 12 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, Chicago, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 17 5 10 15 0 20 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 25 50 75 100 0 125 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 13 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, Denver, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 18 10 20 30 40 0 50 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 46 92 137 183 229 0 275 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 14 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, Houston, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 19 50 100 150 0 200 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 500 1000 1500 0 2000 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 15 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, Los Angeles, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 20 5 10 15 0 20 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 25 50 75 100 0 125 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 16 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, Miami, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 21 25 50 75 100 0 125 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 700 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 17 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, New York, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 22 10 20 30 40 50 0 60 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 500 1000 1500 0 2000 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 17 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, Philadelphia, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 23 5 10 15 0 20 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 25 50 75 100 0 125 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 19 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, St. Louis, Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 24 10 20 30 0 40 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Children Having FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 46 92 137 183 229 0 275 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Occurrences of FEV1 Decrements

20% ( thousands) ASIS 8110 1112 8109 1110 8509 8508 8108 8107 FIGURE C. 20 Representative Risk Distributions for Alternative Air Quality Scenarios ( FEV1 Decrements

20%, Washington, D. C., Outdoor Children, 8 Hr Exposures, Moderate Exertion) C 25 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 40 Scenarios:

Chicago ZDABHJFCG Denver ZDABHJFCG Houston ZDABHJFCG Los Ang ZDABHJFCG Miami ZDABHJFCG New York ZDABHJFCG Phila ZDABHJFCG St Louis ZDABHJFCG WashDC ZDABHJFCG Z= AsIs D= 8110 A= 1112 B= 8109 H= 1110 J= 8509 F= 8508 C= 8108 G= 8107 Key:

0.05 fractiles medians 0.95 fractiles FIGURE C. 21 Headcount Risk Results for the Percentage of Children Responding for the Eight Hr, Moderate Exertion, FEV1 Decrements

15% Endpoint C 26 5 10 15 20 0 25 Scenarios:

Chicago ZDABHJFCG Denver ZDABHJFCG Houston ZDABHJFCG Los Ang ZDABHJFCG Miami ZDABHJFCG New York ZDABHJFCG Phila ZDABHJFCG St Louis ZDABHJFCG WashDC ZDABHJFCG Z= AsIs D= 8110 A= 1112 B= 8109 H= 1110 J= 8509 F= 8508 C= 8108 G= 8107 Key:

0.05 fractiles medians 0.95 fractiles FIGURE C. 22 Headcount Risk Results for the Percentage of Children Responding for the Eight Hr, Moderate Exertion, FEV1 Decrements

20% Endpoint C 27 5 10 0 15 Scenarios:

Chicago ZDABHJFCG Denver ZDABHJFCG Houston ZDABHJFCG Los Ang ZDABHJFCG Miami ZDABHJFCG New York ZDABHJFCG Phila ZDABHJFCG St Louis ZDABHJFCG WashDC ZDABHJFCG Z= AsIs D= 8110 A= 1112 B= 8109 H= 1110 J= 8509 F= 8508 C= 8108 G= 8107 Key:

0.05 fractiles medians 0.95 fractiles FIGURE C. 23 Headcount Risk Results for the Percentage of Children Responding for the One Hr, Moderate Exertion, Moderate to

Severe Pain on Deep Inspiration Endpoint C 28 C. 2.3 Ratios of Mean Numbers of Occurrences and Mean Numbers of Responders Figures C. 24 26 show the ratios for the mean numbers of occurrences and mean numbers of outdoor children responding for three endpoints, nine urban areas, and five air quality scenarios. The endpoints are FEV1 decrements

15% and

20% for 8 hr exposures at moderate exertion, and moderate to severe pain on deep inspiration for 1 hr exposures at moderate exertion. The following letter codes were used to identify the urban areas: CH = Chicago, DE = Denver, HO = Houston, LA = Los Angeles, MI = Miami, NY = New York City, PH = Philadelphia, SL = St. Louis, and DC = Washington, D. C.

The ratios were computed in the following way. For a specific endpoint, available risk results include 10 probability distributions ( one for each of 10 pNEM runs) over the number of persons who respond one or more times, and 10 probability distributions over the number of personoccurrences ( which allows for the possibility that an individual may respond more than one time). The ratio of interest here is the sum of the expected values of the person occurrences distributions divided by the sum of the expected values of the persons distributions. The ratio is, in a sense, an estimate of the average number of times that a responder responds during an ozone season. C 29 5 6 7 8 4 9 Urban Area 8108 8508 8109 8509 1112 DE HO LA MI NY PH SL CH DC Scenarios:

3 4 2 5 Urban Area 8108 8508 8109 8509 1112 DE HO LA MI NY PH SL CH DC Scenarios: FIGURE C. 24 RATIOS OF MEAN NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES AND MEAN NUMBER OF RESPONDERS ( FEV1 DECREMENTS

15%, 9 URBAN AREAS, OUTDOOR CHILDREN, 8 HR EXPOSURES, MODERATE EXERTION)

FIGURE C. 25 RATIOS OF MEAN NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES AND MEAN NUMBER OF RESPONDERS ( FEV1 DECREMENTS

20%, 9 URBAN AREAS, OUTDOOR CHILDREN, 8 HR EXPOSURES, MODERATE EXERTION) C 30 10 12 14 16 18 8 20 Urban Area 8108 8508 8109 8509 1112 Scenarios:

DE HO LA MI NY PH SL CH DC FIGURE C. 26 RATIOS OF MEAN NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES AND MEAN NUMBER OF RESPONDERS ( MODERATE TO SEVERE PAIN ON DEEP INSPIRATION, 9 URBAN AREAS, OUTDOOR CHILDREN, 1 HR EXPOSURES, MODERATE EXERTION) C 31 C. 3 BENCHMARK RISK Figures C. 27 29 illustrate benchmark risk results for the probability that the benchmark response will be exceeded 5 or more times in an ozone season. Benchmark response is r, the fraction of the population who experience the specified health effect upon exposure to ozone. Benchmark risk is defined as the probability that the benchmark response is

r n or more times in a given period of time ( 1 ozone season) at some location within a geographic region, given a specific condition of air quality ( e. g., that standard 1112 is just attained). In this report, we use r values of 0.05 and 0.1 ( sometimes referred to as 0.05 and 0.1 benchmarks, or 5% and 10% benchmarks).

Figure C. 27 shows the graphical format used to display benchmark risk results. The figure is for the probability that the benchmark response for the FEV 1 decrement

15%, 8 hr exposure, moderate exertion endpoint will be exceeded 5 or more times in an ozone season for 0.05 and 0.1 benchmarks.

This figure includes results for 9 urban areas and 9 air quality scenarios for each urban area. The air quality scenarios are indicated by a letter code above the name of each area. The letter code is explained on the right side of the figure. There are 2 vertical lines for each air quality scenario: the one on the left ( a solid line) is for the 0.05 benchmark, and the one on the right ( a dotted line) is for the 0.1 benchmark. The height of the line indicates the benchmark risk. The benchmark risk for the 0.05 benchmark is, logically,

the benchmark risk for the 0.1 benchmark.

For example, for Miami, scenario G, daily maximum 8 hr running average ozone concentrations, and using the distribution for the highest ozone concentration, the benchmark risk for the 0.05 benchmark is about 0.52; and the benchmark risk for the 0.1 benchmark is about 0.2. In other words, if standard 8107 is just attained in Miami, then the benchmark risk ( i. e., probability) is 0.52 that  5% of the population will experience FEV 1 decrements  15% 5 or more times in an ozone season. C 32 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Benchmarks:

Scenarios:

Z= AsIs J= 8509 B= 8109 F= 8508 C= 8108 A= 1112 H= 1110 D= 8110 G= 8107 Chicago ZJBFCAHDG Denver ZJBFCAHDG Houston ZJBFCAHDG Los Ang ZJBFCAHDG Miami ZJBFCAHDG New York ZJBFCAHDG Philadel ZJBFCAHDG St Louis ZJBFCAHDG Wash DC ZJBFCAHDG 0.05 0.10 FIGURE C. 27 Probability that the Benchmark Response for the Eight Hr, Moderate Exertion, FEV1 Decrement

15% Endpoint Will Be Exceeded 5 or More Times in an Ozone Season C 33 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Benchmarks:

Scenarios:

Z= AsIs J= 8509 B= 8109 F= 8508 C= 8108 A= 1112 H= 1110 D= 8110 G= 8107 Chicago ZJBFCAHDG Denver ZJBFCAHDG Houston ZJBFCAHDG Los Ang ZJBFCAHDG Miami ZJBFCAHDG New York ZJBFCAHDG Philadel ZJBFCAHDG St Louis ZJBFCAHDG Wash DC ZJBFCAHDG 0.05 0.10 FIGURE C. 28 Probability that the Benchmark Response for the Eight Hr, Moderate Exertion, FEV1 Decrement

20% Endpoint Will Be Exceeded 5 or More Times in an Ozone Season C 34 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 Benchmarks:

Scenarios:

Z= AsIs J= 8509 B= 8109 F= 8508 C= 8108 A= 1112 H= 1110 D= 8110 G= 8107 Chicago ZJBFCAHDG Denver ZJBFCAHDG Houston ZJBFCAHDG Los Ang ZJBFCAHDG Miami ZJBFCAHDG New York ZJBFCAHDG Philadel ZJBFCAHDG St Louis ZJBFCAHDG Wash DC ZJBFCAHDG 0.05 0.10 FIGURE C. 29 Probability that the Benchmark Response for the One Hr, Moderate Exertion, Moderate to Severe Pain on Deep Inspiration Endpoint Will Be Exceeded 5 or More Times in an Ozone Season