2044....................................................       2,400      10,000       1,400       5,400      -5,900     -22,000     -19,000      -9,000
2045....................................................       2,300       9,200       1,300       4,200      -6,100     -22,000     -19,000      -9,300
2046....................................................       2,200       8,100       1,300       2,900      -6,300     -23,000     -20,000      -9,600
2047....................................................       2,000       6,700       1,200       1,500      -6,400     -23,000     -20,000      -9,700
2048....................................................       1,900       5,400       1,100       1,500      -6,500     -24,000     -20,000     -10,000
2049....................................................       1,700       4,000       1,100       1,600      -6,600     -24,000     -21,000     -10,000
2050....................................................       1,500       2,500       1,000       1,600      -6,700     -24,000     -21,000     -10,000
2051....................................................       1,500       2,500       1,000       1,600      -6,800     -25,000     -21,000     -10,000
2052....................................................       1,500       2,500       1,000       1,600      -6,800     -25,000     -21,000     -10,000
2053....................................................       1,500       2,600       1,000       1,600      -6,900     -25,000     -21,000     -10,000
2054....................................................       1,500       2,600       1,000       1,600      -6,900     -25,000     -21,000     -11,000
2055....................................................       1,500       2,600       1,000       1,600      -6,900     -25,000     -21,000     -11,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

 Table 144--OMEGA Estimated Upstream Criteria Emission Impacts of the Proposed Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                EGU                                          Refinery
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX        PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027....................................................         140         830          71         680        -140        -530        -450        -210
2028....................................................         350       2,000         170       1,600        -370      -1,400      -1,200        -560
2029....................................................         570       3,300         280       2,700        -660      -2,500      -2,200        -990
2030....................................................         860       4,900         420       4,000      -1,000      -3,900      -3,400      -1,600
2031....................................................       1,100       6,300         550       5,100      -1,400      -5,400      -4,700      -2,200
2032....................................................       1,400       7,900         700       6,300      -1,900      -7,200      -6,200      -2,900
2033....................................................       1,800       9,700         860       7,700      -2,400      -9,200      -7,900      -3,700
2034....................................................       2,100      11,000       1,000       8,800      -2,900     -11,000      -9,500      -4,500
2035....................................................       2,300      12,000       1,100       9,500      -3,400     -13,000     -11,000      -5,200
2036....................................................       2,500      13,000       1,200       9,900      -3,800     -14,000     -12,000      -5,800
2037....................................................       2,600      14,000       1,300      10,000      -4,300     -16,000     -14,000      -6,500
2038....................................................       2,800      14,000       1,400      10,000      -4,700     -17,000     -15,000      -7,100
2039....................................................       2,800      14,000       1,500      10,000      -5,100     -19,000     -16,000      -7,700
2040....................................................       2,900      14,000       1,500       9,600      -5,400     -20,000     -17,000      -8,300
2041....................................................       2,900      14,000       1,500       9,000      -5,800     -21,000     -18,000      -8,800
2042....................................................       2,900      13,000       1,500       8,100      -6,100     -22,000     -19,000      -9,200
2043....................................................       2,800      12,000       1,500       7,200      -6,400     -23,000     -20,000      -9,700
2044....................................................       2,700      11,000       1,500       6,000      -6,600     -24,000     -21,000     -10,000
2045....................................................       2,600      10,000       1,500       4,600      -6,700     -25,000     -21,000     -10,000

2046....................................................       2,400       8,900       1,400       3,200      -7,000     -25,000     -22,000     -11,000
2047....................................................       2,200       7,500       1,300       1,700      -7,100     -26,000     -22,000     -11,000
2048....................................................       2,100       6,000       1,300       1,700      -7,200     -26,000     -22,000     -11,000
2049....................................................       1,900       4,400       1,200       1,800      -7,300     -27,000     -23,000     -11,000
2050....................................................       1,600       2,800       1,100       1,800      -7,400     -27,000     -23,000     -11,000
2051....................................................       1,700       2,800       1,100       1,800      -7,500     -27,000     -23,000     -11,000
2052....................................................       1,700       2,800       1,100       1,800      -7,500     -27,000     -23,000     -12,000
2053....................................................       1,700       2,800       1,100       1,800      -7,500     -27,000     -23,000     -12,000
2054....................................................       1,700       2,800       1,100       1,800      -7,600     -27,000     -23,000     -12,000
2055....................................................       1,700       2,800       1,100       1,900      -7,600     -27,000     -23,000     -12,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

 Table 145--OMEGA Estimated Upstream Criteria Emission Impacts of the Proposed Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                EGU                                          Refinery
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX        PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027....................................................         100         580          49         470         -96        -370        -320        -150
2028....................................................         220       1,300         110       1,000        -240        -900        -780        -360
2029....................................................         420       2,400         210       2,000        -470      -1,800      -1,500        -710
2030....................................................         620       3,500         300       2,800        -710      -2,700      -2,300      -1,100
2031....................................................         860       4,800         420       3,900      -1,000      -3,900      -3,400      -1,600
2032....................................................       1,100       6,200         540       4,900      -1,400      -5,300      -4,600      -2,100
2033....................................................       1,400       7,800         700       6,100      -1,900      -7,100      -6,100      -2,800
2034....................................................       1,700       9,100         830       7,100      -2,300      -8,700      -7,500      -3,500
2035....................................................       1,900      10,000         940       7,800      -2,700     -10,000      -8,700      -4,100
2036....................................................       2,000      11,000       1,000       8,000      -3,000     -11,000      -9,700      -4,600
2037....................................................       2,200      11,000       1,100       8,400      -3,400     -13,000     -11,000      -5,200
2038....................................................       2,300      12,000       1,200       8,400      -3,800     -14,000     -12,000      -5,700
2039....................................................       2,400      12,000       1,200       8,300      -4,100     -15,000     -13,000      -6,200
2040....................................................       2,400      12,000       1,300       8,000      -4,400     -16,000     -14,000      -6,700
2041....................................................       2,400      12,000       1,300       7,500      -4,700     -17,000     -15,000      -7,200
2042....................................................       2,400      11,000       1,300       6,800      -4,900     -18,000     -16,000      -7,500
2043....................................................       2,400      10,000       1,300       6,000      -5,200     -19,000     -16,000      -7,900
2044....................................................       2,300       9,500       1,300       4,900      -5,300     -20,000     -17,000      -8,100
2045....................................................       2,100       8,500       1,200       3,800      -5,500     -20,000     -17,000      -8,400
2046....................................................       2,000       7,400       1,200       2,700      -5,700     -21,000     -18,000      -8,700
2047....................................................       1,900       6,200       1,100       1,400      -5,800     -21,000     -18,000      -8,800
2048....................................................       1,700       5,000       1,100       1,400      -5,900     -22,000     -18,000      -9,000
2049....................................................       1,500       3,700       1,000       1,400      -6,000     -22,000     -19,000      -9,200
2050....................................................       1,400       2,300         930       1,500      -6,100     -22,000     -19,000      -9,300
2051....................................................       1,400       2,300         940       1,500      -6,200     -22,000     -19,000      -9,400
2052....................................................       1,400       2,300         940       1,500      -6,200     -22,000     -19,000      -9,500
2053....................................................       1,400       2,300         950       1,500      -6,200     -22,000     -19,000      -9,500
2054....................................................       1,400       2,400         950       1,500      -6,200     -22,000     -19,000      -9,500
2055....................................................       1,400       2,400         950       1,500      -6,200     -22,000     -19,000      -9,500
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

 Table 146--OMEGA Estimated Upstream Criteria Emission Impacts of the Proposed Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                EGU                                          Refinery
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX        PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027....................................................          84         490          42         400         -78        -300        -260        -120
2028....................................................         190       1,100          95         910        -200        -750        -650        -300
2029....................................................         320       1,800         160       1,500        -350      -1,300      -1,100        -520
2030....................................................         500       2,900         250       2,300        -570      -2,200      -1,900        -870
2031....................................................         780       4,400         380       3,500        -930      -3,500      -3,000      -1,400
2032....................................................       1,100       6,100         540       4,900      -1,400      -5,200      -4,500      -2,100

2033....................................................       1,400       7,700         690       6,100      -1,800      -7,000      -6,000      -2,800
2034....................................................       1,700       9,300         850       7,300      -2,400      -8,900      -7,600      -3,600
2035....................................................       2,000      10,000         970       8,100      -2,800     -11,000      -9,100      -4,300
2036....................................................       2,100      11,000       1,100       8,400      -3,200     -12,000     -10,000      -4,800
2037....................................................       2,300      12,000       1,200       8,800      -3,600     -13,000     -12,000      -5,500
2038....................................................       2,400      12,000       1,200       8,900      -4,000     -15,000     -13,000      -6,100
2039....................................................       2,500      12,000       1,300       8,800      -4,400     -16,000     -14,000      -6,600
2040....................................................       2,600      12,000       1,300       8,500      -4,700     -18,000     -15,000      -7,200
2041....................................................       2,600      12,000       1,400       8,000      -5,100     -19,000     -16,000      -7,700
2042....................................................       2,600      12,000       1,400       7,200      -5,300     -20,000     -17,000      -8,100
2043....................................................       2,500      11,000       1,400       6,400      -5,600     -21,000     -18,000      -8,600
2044....................................................       2,400      10,000       1,300       5,300      -5,800     -21,000     -18,000      -8,900
2045....................................................       2,300       9,200       1,300       4,100      -6,000     -22,000     -19,000      -9,200
2046....................................................       2,200       8,100       1,300       2,900      -6,200     -23,000     -19,000      -9,500
2047....................................................       2,000       6,800       1,200       1,500      -6,300     -23,000     -20,000      -9,700
2048....................................................       1,900       5,400       1,200       1,600      -6,500     -24,000     -20,000      -9,900
2049....................................................       1,700       4,000       1,100       1,600      -6,600     -24,000     -20,000     -10,000
2050....................................................       1,500       2,500       1,000       1,600      -6,700     -24,000     -21,000     -10,000
2051....................................................       1,500       2,500       1,000       1,600      -6,800     -25,000     -21,000     -10,000
2052....................................................       1,500       2,600       1,000       1,600      -6,800     -25,000     -21,000     -10,000
2053....................................................       1,500       2,600       1,000       1,600      -6,900     -25,000     -21,000     -10,000
2054....................................................       1,500       2,600       1,000       1,700      -6,900     -25,000     -21,000     -11,000
2055....................................................       1,500       2,600       1,000       1,700      -6,900     -25,000     -21,000     -11,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

    Table 147 through Table 150 show the net impact of the proposed
standards and alternatives on emissions of criteria pollutants,
accounting for vehicle, EGU, and refinery emissions. In 2055, when the
fleet will be largely comprised of vehicle meeting the proposed
standards, there would be a net decrease in emissions of
PM2.5, NOX, and SOX (i.e., all of the
pollutants for which we have emissions estimates from all three source
sectors). The proposal would result in net reductions of
PM2.5, NOX, NMOG, and CO emissions for all years
between 2028 and 2055. Net SOX emissions would be reduced
beginning in 2040. Until then, the increased electricity generation
associated with the proposed standards would result in net increases in
SOX emissions, which would peak in the mid-2030's.

    Table 147--OMEGA Estimated Net Criteria Emission Impacts of the Proposed Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              Vehicles, EGUs and Refineries
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    Emission impacts relative to no action (thousand U.S. tons)               Percent change from no action
                                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Calendar year                                                                           PM2.5 (%)    NOX (%)               SOX (%)
                                      PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX          CO                                NMOG (%)               CO (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.............................         -62        -430      -1,500         410       -24,000       -0.11      -0.070      -0.13       0.89      -0.22
2028.............................        -180      -1,100      -4,300         860       -61,000       -0.33       -0.21      -0.42        1.9      -0.60
2029.............................        -360      -2,300      -8,900       1,400      -110,000       -0.68       -0.49      -0.91        3.1       -1.2
2030.............................        -900      -3,700     -15,000       1,900      -180,000        -1.8        -0.9       -1.6        4.2       -2.0
2031.............................      -1,500      -5,700     -21,000       2,400      -250,000        -3.0        -1.5       -2.5        5.3       -3.1
2032.............................      -2,100      -8,100     -30,000       2,800      -330,000        -4.4        -2.4       -3.6        6.3       -4.5
2033.............................      -2,800     -11,000     -39,000       3,000      -430,000        -6.0        -3.5       -5.1        7.0       -6.2
2034.............................      -3,600     -14,000     -50,000       3,100      -530,000        -7.7        -4.9       -6.9        7.3       -8.3
2035.............................      -4,400     -17,000     -61,000       3,000      -640,000        -9.5        -6.5       -8.9        7.2        -11
2036.............................      -5,100     -20,000     -72,000       2,600      -720,000         -11        -8.2        -11        6.3        -13
2037.............................      -5,900     -23,000     -84,000       2,000      -820,000         -13         -10        -14        5.1        -16
2038.............................      -6,700     -26,000     -97,000       1,300      -930,000         -15         -13        -17        3.4        -19
2039.............................      -7,500     -30,000    -110,000         400    -1,000,000         -17         -15        -20        1.1        -22
2040.............................      -8,400     -33,000    -120,000        -650    -1,100,000         -19         -17        -23       -1.8        -25
2041.............................      -9,200     -37,000    -130,000      -1,800    -1,200,000         -21         -20        -26       -5.2        -28
2042.............................      -9,900     -40,000    -150,000      -3,100    -1,300,000         -23         -22        -29         -9        -31
2043.............................     -11,000     -43,000    -160,000      -4,500    -1,400,000         -25         -25        -32        -14        -34
2044.............................     -11,000     -46,000    -170,000      -6,000    -1,400,000         -26         -27        -35        -19        -37
2045.............................     -12,000     -49,000    -180,000      -7,500    -1,500,000         -28         -29        -37        -25        -39
2046.............................     -13,000     -52,000    -190,000      -9,200    -1,600,000         -30         -31        -40        -32        -41
2047.............................     -13,000     -55,000    -190,000     -11,000    -1,600,000         -31         -34        -42        -39        -43
2048.............................     -14,000     -58,000    -200,000     -11,000    -1,700,000         -32         -36        -44        -40        -44
2049.............................     -14,000     -61,000    -210,000     -11,000    -1,700,000         -33         -38        -45        -40        -46

2050.............................     -15,000     -63,000    -210,000     -11,000    -1,700,000         -34         -40        -46        -41        -47
2051.............................     -15,000     -64,000    -220,000     -11,000    -1,800,000         -35         -40        -47        -41        -47
2052.............................     -15,000     -65,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -40        -48        -41        -48
2053.............................     -15,000     -65,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -41        -49        -42        -49
2054.............................     -15,000     -66,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -41        -49        -42        -49
2055.............................     -15,000     -66,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -41        -50        -42        -49
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

 Table 148--OMEGA Estimated Net Criteria Emission Impacts of the Alternative 1 Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              Vehicles, EGUs and Refineries
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    Emission impacts relative to no action (thousand U.S. tons)               Percent change from no action
                                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Calendar year                                                                           PM2.5 (%)    NOX (%)               SOX (%)
                                      PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX          CO                                NMOG (%)               CO (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.............................         -65        -440      -1,500         420       -25,000       -0.11      -0.072      -0.14       0.92      -0.23
2028.............................        -200      -1,200      -4,600         940       -65,000       -0.37       -0.22      -0.45        2.1      -0.65
2029.............................        -400      -2,400      -9,000       1,400      -110,000       -0.76       -0.49      -0.93        3.1       -1.2
2030.............................        -970      -3,900     -15,000       2,000      -180,000        -1.9        -0.9       -1.7        4.4       -2.1
2031.............................      -1,600      -6,000     -23,000       2,400      -260,000        -3.2        -1.6       -2.6        5.3       -3.2
2032.............................      -2,200      -8,600     -32,000       2,700      -350,000        -4.6        -2.5       -3.9        6.2       -4.7
2033.............................      -3,000     -12,000     -42,000       3,100      -450,000        -6.2        -3.8       -5.5        7.0       -6.6
2034.............................      -3,800     -15,000     -54,000       3,100      -570,000        -8.0        -5.3       -7.5        7.4       -8.8
2035.............................      -4,500     -18,000     -67,000       3,000      -680,000        -9.9        -7.0       -9.8        7.2        -11
2036.............................      -5,300     -21,000     -80,000       2,600      -780,000         -12        -8.9        -12        6.4        -14
2037.............................      -6,100     -25,000     -93,000       2,100      -900,000         -14         -11        -15        5.2        -17
2038.............................      -7,000     -29,000    -110,000       1,300    -1,000,000         -16         -14        -18        3.4        -20
2039.............................      -7,800     -32,000    -120,000         340    -1,100,000         -18         -16        -22        0.9        -24
2040.............................      -8,700     -36,000    -140,000        -780    -1,200,000         -20         -19        -25       -2.2        -27
2041.............................      -9,500     -40,000    -150,000      -2,100    -1,300,000         -22         -21        -29       -5.9        -31
2042.............................     -10,000     -43,000    -160,000      -3,500    -1,400,000         -24         -24        -32        -10        -34
2043.............................     -11,000     -47,000    -180,000      -5,000    -1,500,000         -26         -27        -35        -15        -37
2044.............................     -12,000     -50,000    -190,000      -6,600    -1,600,000         -27         -29        -38        -21        -40
2045.............................     -12,000     -53,000    -200,000      -8,300    -1,700,000         -29         -32        -41        -28        -43
2046.............................     -13,000     -57,000    -210,000     -10,000    -1,700,000         -31         -34        -44        -35        -45
2047.............................     -14,000     -59,000    -210,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -32         -36        -46        -43        -47
2048.............................     -14,000     -63,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -33         -39        -48        -44        -49
2049.............................     -15,000     -66,000    -230,000     -12,000    -1,900,000         -35         -41        -50        -45        -50
2050.............................     -15,000     -69,000    -230,000     -13,000    -1,900,000         -36         -43        -51        -45        -52
2051.............................     -15,000     -69,000    -240,000     -13,000    -1,900,000         -36         -43        -52        -45        -52
2052.............................     -16,000     -70,000    -240,000     -13,000    -2,000,000         -36         -44        -53        -45        -53
2053.............................     -16,000     -71,000    -240,000     -13,000    -2,000,000         -37         -44        -54        -46        -54
2054.............................     -16,000     -71,000    -250,000     -13,000    -2,000,000         -37         -44        -54        -46        -54
2055.............................     -16,000     -71,000    -250,000     -13,000    -2,000,000         -37         -44        -55        -46        -55
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

 Table 149--OMEGA Estimated Net Criteria Emission Impacts of the Alternative 2 Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              Vehicles, EGUs and Refineries
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   Emission impacts relative to no action  (thousand U.S. tons)               Percent change from no action
                                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Calendar year                                                                          PM2.5  (%)   NOX  (%)               SOX  (%)
                                      PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX          CO                               NMOG  (%)              CO  (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.............................         -45        -360      -1,100         290       -17,000       -0.08      -0.058      -0.10       0.64      -0.16
2028.............................        -130        -910      -3,100         600       -42,000       -0.25       -0.17      -0.30        1.3      -0.42
2029.............................        -290      -2,000      -6,900       1,100       -88,000       -0.55       -0.41      -0.71        2.4       -0.9
2030.............................        -820      -3,100     -11,000       1,500      -140,000        -1.6        -0.7       -1.2        3.3       -1.6
2031.............................      -1,400      -4,900     -17,000       1,900      -200,000        -2.8        -1.3       -2.0        4.2       -2.5
2032.............................      -2,000      -7,000     -24,000       2,200      -270,000        -4.1        -2.1       -3.0        5.1       -3.7
2033.............................      -2,700      -9,600     -33,000       2,600      -360,000        -5.7        -3.2       -4.3        5.9       -5.3

2034.............................      -3,400     -12,000     -43,000       2,700      -460,000        -7.4        -4.5       -5.9        6.3       -7.2
2035.............................      -4,200     -15,000     -53,000       2,600      -560,000        -9.1        -5.9       -7.7        6.3         -9
2036.............................      -4,900     -18,000     -63,000       2,300      -640,000         -11        -7.5        -10        5.6        -11
2037.............................      -5,700     -21,000     -74,000       1,900      -730,000         -13          -9        -12        4.8        -14
2038.............................      -6,500     -24,000     -85,000       1,300      -830,000         -15         -11        -15        3.3        -17
2039.............................      -7,300     -27,000     -97,000         500      -920,000         -17         -14        -17        1.3        -20
2040.............................      -8,000     -31,000    -110,000        -430    -1,000,000         -18         -16        -20       -1.2        -23
2041.............................      -8,800     -34,000    -120,000      -1,500    -1,100,000         -20         -18        -23       -4.3        -25
2042.............................      -9,500     -37,000    -130,000      -2,700    -1,200,000         -22         -21        -26         -8        -28
2043.............................     -10,000     -40,000    -140,000      -4,000    -1,300,000         -24         -23        -29        -12        -31
2044.............................     -11,000     -43,000    -150,000      -5,300    -1,300,000         -25         -25        -31        -17        -33
2045.............................     -12,000     -45,000    -160,000      -6,700    -1,400,000         -27         -27        -33        -22        -35
2046.............................     -12,000     -48,000    -170,000      -8,300    -1,400,000         -28         -29        -36        -29        -37
2047.............................     -13,000     -51,000    -170,000      -9,700    -1,500,000         -30         -31        -38        -35        -39
2048.............................     -13,000     -54,000    -180,000     -10,000    -1,500,000         -31         -33        -39        -36        -40
2049.............................     -14,000     -56,000    -190,000     -10,000    -1,600,000         -32         -35        -41        -37        -42
2050.............................     -14,000     -59,000    -190,000     -10,000    -1,600,000         -33         -37        -42        -37        -43
2051.............................     -14,000     -59,000    -200,000     -10,000    -1,600,000         -34         -37        -43        -37        -43
2052.............................     -14,000     -60,000    -200,000     -10,000    -1,600,000         -34         -37        -44        -38        -44
2053.............................     -15,000     -60,000    -200,000     -11,000    -1,600,000         -34         -38        -44        -38        -44
2054.............................     -15,000     -61,000    -200,000     -11,000    -1,600,000         -34         -38        -45        -38        -45
2055.............................     -15,000     -61,000    -200,000     -11,000    -1,600,000         -34         -38        -45        -38        -45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

 Table 150--OMEGA Estimated Net Criteria Emission Impacts of the Alternative 3 Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              Vehicles, EGUs and Refineries
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   Emission impacts relative to no action  (thousand U.S. tons)               Percent change from no action
                                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Calendar year                                                                          PM2.5  (%)   NOX  (%)               SOX  (%)
                                      PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX          CO                               NMOG  (%)              CO  (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.............................         -37        -360      -1,000         250       -15,000       -0.07      -0.058      -0.09       0.55      -0.14
2028.............................        -110        -870      -2,900         530       -39,000       -0.21       -0.16      -0.28        1.2      -0.39
2029.............................        -220      -1,600      -5,500         830       -68,000       -0.42       -0.34      -0.56        1.8       -0.7
2030.............................        -740      -2,700      -9,400       1,200      -110,000        -1.4        -0.6       -1.0        2.7       -1.3
2031.............................      -1,300      -4,500     -15,000       1,700      -180,000        -2.6        -1.2       -1.7        3.9       -2.2
2032.............................      -1,900      -6,800     -23,000       2,300      -260,000        -4.0        -2.0       -2.8        5.1       -3.6
2033.............................      -2,600      -9,500     -31,000       2,600      -360,000        -5.5        -3.1       -4.1        6.0       -5.2
2034.............................      -3,400     -13,000     -41,000       2,800      -470,000        -7.2        -4.5       -5.7        6.5       -7.3
2035.............................      -4,200     -16,000     -52,000       2,700      -570,000        -9.0        -6.1       -7.7        6.5        -10
2036.............................      -4,900     -19,000     -63,000       2,400      -660,000         -11        -7.8        -10        5.9        -12
2037.............................      -5,700     -22,000     -75,000       1,900      -770,000         -13         -10        -12        4.9        -15
2038.............................      -6,500     -25,000     -88,000       1,300      -870,000         -15         -12        -15        3.3        -18
2039.............................      -7,300     -29,000    -100,000         440      -980,000         -17         -14        -18        1.2        -21
2040.............................      -8,200     -32,000    -110,000        -550    -1,100,000         -19         -17        -21       -1.5        -24
2041.............................      -9,000     -36,000    -130,000      -1,700    -1,200,000         -21         -19        -24       -4.9        -27
2042.............................      -9,700     -39,000    -140,000      -3,000    -1,300,000         -23         -22        -27         -9        -30
2043.............................     -11,000     -43,000    -150,000      -4,400    -1,400,000         -24         -24        -31        -13        -33
2044.............................     -11,000     -46,000    -160,000      -5,800    -1,400,000         -26         -27        -33        -19        -36
2045.............................     -12,000     -49,000    -170,000      -7,400    -1,500,000         -28         -29        -36        -25        -38
2046.............................     -13,000     -52,000    -180,000      -9,100    -1,600,000         -29         -31        -39        -31        -41
2047.............................     -13,000     -55,000    -190,000     -11,000    -1,600,000         -31         -33        -41        -39        -42
2048.............................     -14,000     -58,000    -200,000     -11,000    -1,700,000         -32         -36        -43        -40        -44
2049.............................     -14,000     -60,000    -210,000     -11,000    -1,700,000         -33         -38        -45        -40        -45
2050.............................     -15,000     -63,000    -210,000     -11,000    -1,700,000         -34         -40        -46        -41        -47
2051.............................     -15,000     -64,000    -210,000     -11,000    -1,800,000         -35         -40        -47        -41        -47
2052.............................     -15,000     -65,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -40        -48        -41        -48
2053.............................     -15,000     -65,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -41        -49        -42        -49
2054.............................     -15,000     -66,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -41        -49        -42        -49
2055.............................     -15,000     -66,000    -220,000     -12,000    -1,800,000         -35         -41        -50        -42        -50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* CO emission rates were not available for calculating CO inventories from EGUs or refineries.

    The estimated refinery emission impacts include consideration of
the impact on reduced liquid fuel demand on domestic refining. Our
central analysis estimates that impact at 93 percent. In other words,
93 percent of the reduced liquid fuel demand results in reduced
domestic refining. There is the possibility that reduced domestic
demand for liquid fuel would have no impact on domestic refining. In
other words, excess domestic refined liquid fuel would be exported for
use elsewhere. In that event, there would be no decrease in domestic
refinery emissions and the net criteria air pollutant impacts for the
proposed standards would be as shown in Table 151. We request comment
on the correct portion of reduced liquid fuel demand that would result
in reduced domestic refining.

    Table 151--OMEGA Estimated Net Criteria Emission Impacts of the Proposed Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                    Vehicles and EGUs and No Impacts From Refineries
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    Emission impacts relative to no action (thousand U.S. tons)               Percent change from no action
                                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Calendar year                                                                          PM2.5  (%)   NOX  (%)               SOX  (%)
                                      PM2.5        NOX        NMOG         SOX          CO                               NMOG  (%)              CO  (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.............................          70          79      -1,000         610       -24,000        0.20       0.015       -0.1        4.5      -0.22
2028.............................         150         100      -3,300       1,400       -61,000        0.43        0.02      -0.34        9.3       -0.6
2029.............................         230         -61      -6,900       2,300      -110,000        0.70       -0.02      -0.76         15       -1.2
2030.............................          -8        -320     -12,000       3,300      -180,000         0.0        -0.1       -1.3         19         -2
2031.............................        -230        -900     -17,000       4,300      -250,000        -0.7        -0.3       -2.1         24       -3.1
2032.............................        -430      -1,700     -24,000       5,300      -330,000        -1.4        -0.6       -3.2         29       -4.5
2033.............................        -680      -2,600     -32,000       6,300      -430,000        -2.2        -1.1       -4.5         34       -6.2
2034.............................        -960      -3,800     -41,000       7,100      -530,000        -3.1        -1.7       -6.1         39       -8.3
2035.............................      -1,300      -5,200     -51,000       7,600      -640,000        -4.2        -2.6       -8.1         42        -11
2036.............................      -1,700      -6,900     -61,000       7,700      -720,000          -6        -3.8        -10         43        -13
2037.............................      -2,100      -8,700     -72,000       7,800      -820,000          -7          -5        -13         45        -16
2038.............................      -2,500     -11,000     -83,000       7,700      -930,000          -9          -7        -16         47        -19
2039.............................      -3,000     -13,000     -95,000       7,300    -1,000,000         -10          -9        -19         47        -22
2040.............................      -3,500     -15,000    -110,000       6,800    -1,100,000         -12         -11        -22         47        -25
2041.............................      -4,000     -17,000    -120,000       6,100    -1,200,000         -13         -13        -25         45        -28
2042.............................      -4,400     -20,000    -130,000       5,200    -1,300,000         -15         -15        -28         42        -31
2043.............................      -4,900     -22,000    -140,000       4,200    -1,400,000         -17         -18        -31         37        -34
2044.............................      -5,400     -24,000    -150,000       3,000    -1,400,000         -19         -20        -34         30        -37
2045.............................      -5,900     -27,000    -160,000       1,800    -1,500,000         -20         -23        -37         19        -39
2046.............................      -6,400     -29,000    -170,000         410    -1,600,000         -22         -25        -39          5        -41
2047.............................      -6,800     -31,000    -170,000      -1,000    -1,600,000         -23         -28        -41        -16        -43
2048.............................      -7,200     -34,000    -180,000      -1,000    -1,700,000         -25         -30        -43        -16        -44
2049.............................      -7,600     -36,000    -190,000      -1,100    -1,700,000         -26         -33        -45        -16        -46
2050.............................      -8,000     -39,000    -190,000      -1,100    -1,700,000         -28         -35        -46        -16        -47
2051.............................      -8,000     -39,000    -200,000      -1,100    -1,800,000         -28         -36        -47        -16        -47
2052.............................      -8,100     -40,000    -200,000      -1,100    -1,800,000         -28         -36        -48        -17        -48
2053.............................      -8,200     -41,000    -200,000      -1,100    -1,800,000         -28         -37        -49        -17        -49
2054.............................      -8,200     -41,000    -200,000      -1,100    -1,800,000         -29         -37        -49        -17        -49
2055.............................      -8,300     -41,000    -200,000      -1,100    -1,800,000         -29         -37        -50        -17        -49
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 152 through Table 155 show reductions in vehicle emissions of
air toxics. We expect this proposal would reduce emissions of air
toxics from light- and medium-duty vehicles in three ways: The GPF
technology that we project manufacturers would choose to use in meeting
the proposed PM standards would decrease particle-phase pollutants, the
NMOG+NOX standards would decrease gas-phase toxics, and the
projected increase in BEVs we project manufacturers would choose to
produce in complying with the GHG standards would result in lower air
toxic emissions overall from the light- and medium-duty fleet.
    For most air toxic emissions, we rely on estimates from EPA's MOVES
emissions model. In MOVES, emissions of most gaseous toxic compounds
are estimated as fractions of the emissions of VOC. Toxic species in
the particulate phase (e.g., polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs))
are estimated as fractions of total organic carbon smaller than 2.5
[mu]m (OC2.5). Thus, reductions in air toxic emissions are proportional
to modelled reductions in total VOCs and/or OC2.5.\768\ Emission
measurements of PAHs in EPA's recent GPF test program (see Section
III.C.2 and DRIA Chapter 3.2.2) suggest this is a conservative estimate
indicate reduction in emissions of particle-phase PAH compounds of over
99 percent, compared to about 95 percent for total PM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \768\ U.S. EPA (2020) Air Toxic Emissions from Onroad Vehicles
in MOVES3. Assessment and Standards Division, Office of
Transportation and Air Quality. Report No. EPA-420-R-20-022.
November 2020. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P1010TJM.pdf.

 Table 152--OMEGA Estimated Vehicle Air Toxic Emission Impacts of the Proposed Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Calendar year               Acetaldehyde    Acrolein   Benzene    Ethylbenzene    Formaldehyde     Naphthalene    1,3 Butadiene     15 PAH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.................................             -16         -1        -44             -17            -9.1            -1.9             -6.5      -0.044
2028.................................             -38       -2.4       -110             -53             -22            -4.7              -16       -0.11
2029.................................             -69       -4.4       -200            -110             -40            -8.5              -29       -0.21
2030.................................            -100       -6.6       -310            -190             -60             -13              -43       -0.43
2031.................................            -140       -9.2       -430            -290             -83             -18              -59       -0.66
2032.................................            -190        -12       -570            -400            -110             -23              -78        -0.9
2033.................................            -240        -15       -730            -530            -140             -29              -98        -1.2
2034.................................            -290        -19       -900            -680            -170             -36             -120        -1.4
2035.................................            -350        -22      -1100            -850            -200             -42             -140        -1.7
2036.................................            -390        -25      -1200           -1000            -230             -47             -160        -1.9
2037.................................            -430        -28      -1400           -1200            -250             -53             -180        -2.2
2038.................................            -480        -31      -1500           -1400            -280             -59             -200        -2.5
2039.................................            -520        -34      -1700           -1600            -310             -64             -210        -2.7
2040.................................            -560        -37      -1800           -1800            -330             -69             -230        -2.9
2041.................................            -610        -39      -2000           -2000            -360             -74             -250        -3.2
2042.................................            -640        -41      -2100           -2200            -380             -78             -260        -3.4
2043.................................            -670        -44      -2200           -2300            -400             -82             -270        -3.6
2044.................................            -700        -45      -2300           -2500            -410             -85             -280        -3.7
2045.................................            -720        -47      -2400           -2600            -430             -88             -290        -3.9
2046.................................            -750        -48      -2500           -2800            -440             -91             -300        -4.1
2047.................................            -760        -49      -2600           -2900            -450             -93             -310        -4.2
2048.................................            -780        -51      -2600           -3000            -470             -96             -310        -4.3
2049.................................            -800        -52      -2700           -3100            -480             -98             -320        -4.4
2050.................................            -810        -53      -2800           -3200            -490            -100             -330        -4.5
2051.................................            -820        -54      -2800           -3300            -490            -100             -330        -4.5
2052.................................            -830        -54      -2800           -3300            -500            -100             -330        -4.6
2053.................................            -840        -55      -2900           -3300            -500            -100             -330        -4.6
2054.................................            -840        -55      -2900           -3400            -510            -100             -340        -4.7
2055.................................            -840        -55      -2900           -3400            -510            -100             -340        -4.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Table 153--Estimated Vehicle Air Toxic Emission Impacts of the Alternative 1 Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Calendar year               Acetaldehyde    Acrolein   Benzene    Ethylbenzene    Formaldehyde     Naphthalene    1,3 Butadiene     15 PAH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.................................             -17       -1.1        -46             -18            -9.5              -2             -6.8      -0.046
2028.................................             -41       -2.6       -120             -56             -23              -5              -17       -0.12
2029.................................             -70       -4.5       -210            -110             -41            -8.6              -29       -0.21
2030.................................            -110         -7       -330            -200             -63             -13              -45       -0.44
2031.................................            -150       -9.7       -450            -300             -87             -18              -62       -0.67
2032.................................            -200        -13       -600            -420            -110             -24              -81       -0.91
2033.................................            -260        -16       -780            -570            -150             -31             -100        -1.2
2034.................................            -310        -20       -970            -740            -180             -38             -130        -1.5
2035.................................            -370        -24      -1100            -930            -210             -45             -150        -1.7
2036.................................            -410        -27      -1300           -1100            -240             -51             -170          -2
2037.................................            -470        -30      -1500           -1300            -270             -57             -190        -2.3
2038.................................            -520        -34      -1700           -1500            -300             -64             -210        -2.5
2039.................................            -570        -37      -1800           -1800            -330             -69             -230        -2.8
2040.................................            -610        -40      -2000           -2000            -360             -75             -250          -3
2041.................................            -660        -42      -2200           -2200            -390             -81             -270        -3.2
2042.................................            -690        -45      -2300           -2400            -410             -85             -280        -3.5
2043.................................            -730        -47      -2400           -2600            -430             -90             -300        -3.7
2044.................................            -760        -49      -2500           -2800            -450             -93             -310        -3.8
2045.................................            -790        -51      -2600           -2900            -470             -97             -320          -4
2046.................................            -810        -53      -2800           -3100            -480            -100             -330        -4.2
2047.................................            -830        -54      -2800           -3200            -490            -100             -340        -4.3
2048.................................            -850        -56      -2900           -3300            -510            -110             -350        -4.4
2049.................................            -870        -57      -3000           -3400            -520            -110             -350        -4.5
2050.................................            -890        -58      -3000           -3500            -530            -110             -360        -4.6
2051.................................            -900        -59      -3100           -3600            -540            -110             -360        -4.7
2052.................................            -910        -59      -3100           -3600            -540            -110             -370        -4.7
2053.................................            -910        -60      -3100           -3700            -550            -110             -370        -4.8
2054.................................            -920        -60      -3100           -3700            -550            -110             -370        -4.8
2055.................................            -920        -60      -3200           -3700            -550            -110             -370        -4.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Table 154--Estimated Vehicle Air Toxic Emission Impacts of the Alternative 2 Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Calendar year               Acetaldehyde    Acrolein   Benzene    Ethylbenzene    Formaldehyde     Naphthalene    1,3 Butadiene     15 PAH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.................................             -12      -0.76        -32             -12            -6.7            -1.4             -4.7      -0.032
2028.................................             -27       -1.8        -78             -38             -16            -3.3              -11       -0.08
2029.................................             -55       -3.5       -160             -88             -32            -6.7              -22       -0.16
2030.................................             -82       -5.3       -240            -150             -48             -10              -34       -0.38
2031.................................            -120       -7.6       -350            -230             -68             -14              -48        -0.6
2032.................................            -160        -10       -480            -320             -93             -19              -64       -0.83
2033.................................            -210        -14       -630            -440            -120             -25              -85        -1.1
2034.................................            -260        -17       -790            -580            -150             -32             -110        -1.4
2035.................................            -310        -20       -940            -730            -180             -37             -120        -1.6
2036.................................            -340        -22      -1100            -880            -200             -42             -140        -1.9
2037.................................            -390        -25      -1200           -1000            -230             -48             -160        -2.1
2038.................................            -440        -28      -1400           -1200            -260             -53             -180        -2.4
2039.................................            -480        -31      -1500           -1400            -280             -58             -190        -2.6
2040.................................            -520        -34      -1700           -1600            -310             -63             -210        -2.9
2041.................................            -550        -36      -1800           -1700            -330             -68             -220        -3.1
2042.................................            -590        -38      -1900           -1900            -350             -72             -240        -3.3
2043.................................            -620        -40      -2000           -2100            -370             -76             -250        -3.5
2044.................................            -640        -42      -2100           -2200            -380             -79             -260        -3.7
2045.................................            -660        -43      -2200           -2400            -400             -81             -270        -3.8
2046.................................            -690        -45      -2300           -2500            -410             -84             -280          -4
2047.................................            -700        -46      -2400           -2600            -420             -86             -280        -4.1
2048.................................            -720        -47      -2400           -2700            -430             -88             -290        -4.2
2049.................................            -740        -48      -2500           -2800            -440             -90             -300        -4.3
2050.................................            -750        -49      -2500           -2900            -450             -92             -300        -4.4
2051.................................            -760        -50      -2600           -2900            -460             -93             -300        -4.5
2052.................................            -770        -50      -2600           -3000            -460             -94             -310        -4.5
2053.................................            -770        -51      -2600           -3000            -460             -94             -310        -4.5
2054.................................            -780        -51      -2600           -3100            -470             -95             -310        -4.6
2055.................................            -780        -51      -2600           -3100            -470             -95             -310        -4.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Table 155--Estimated Vehicle Air Toxic Emission Impacts of the Alternative 3 Standards Relative to the No Action Scenario, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                                  [U.S. tons per year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Calendar year               Acetaldehyde    Acrolein   Benzene    Ethylbenzene    Formaldehyde     Naphthalene    1,3 Butadiene     15 PAH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027.................................             -10      -0.67        -28             -12              -6            -1.2             -4.1      -0.028
2028.................................             -25       -1.6        -71             -36             -14              -3              -10      -0.073
2029.................................             -42       -2.7       -120             -71             -25            -5.2              -17       -0.13
2030.................................             -68       -4.4       -200            -120             -40            -8.3              -28       -0.34
2031.................................            -110       -6.9       -320            -200             -63             -13              -43       -0.57
2032.................................            -150        -10       -460            -300             -90             -19              -63       -0.81
2033.................................            -210        -13       -620            -410            -120             -25              -84        -1.1
2034.................................            -260        -17       -800            -560            -150             -32             -110        -1.3
2035.................................            -320        -20       -970            -710            -180             -39             -130        -1.6
2036.................................            -360        -23      -1100            -880            -210             -44             -150        -1.9
2037.................................            -410        -27      -1300           -1100            -240             -50             -170        -2.1
2038.................................            -460        -30      -1400           -1200            -270             -56             -190        -2.4
2039.................................            -510        -33      -1600           -1400            -300             -62             -210        -2.6
2040.................................            -550        -36      -1800           -1600            -320             -67             -220        -2.9
2041.................................            -590        -38      -1900           -1800            -350             -72             -240        -3.1
2042.................................            -630        -41      -2000           -2000            -370             -77             -250        -3.3
2043.................................            -660        -43      -2200           -2200            -390             -81             -270        -3.5
2044.................................            -690        -45      -2300           -2400            -410             -84             -280        -3.7
2045.................................            -710        -46      -2400           -2600            -420             -88             -290        -3.9
2046.................................            -740        -48      -2500           -2700            -440             -91             -300          -4
2047.................................            -760        -49      -2600           -2800            -450             -93             -310        -4.2
2048.................................            -780        -51      -2600           -3000            -470             -96             -310        -4.3
2049.................................            -800        -52      -2700           -3100            -480             -98             -320        -4.4
2050.................................            -810        -53      -2800           -3200            -490            -100             -330        -4.5
2051.................................            -820        -54      -2800           -3200            -490            -100             -330        -4.5
2052.................................            -830        -54      -2800           -3300            -500            -100             -330        -4.6
2053.................................            -840        -55      -2900           -3300            -500            -100             -340        -4.6
2054.................................            -840        -55      -2900           -3400            -510            -100             -340        -4.7
2055.................................            -850        -55      -2900           -3400            -510            -100             -340        -4.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B. How would the proposal affect air quality?

    In the very localized area in close proximity to roadways (i.e.,
within 300-600 meters of the roadway), the decreases in vehicle
emissions resulting from the proposal would decrease ambient levels of
PM2.5, NO2, and other traffic-related pollutants
described in Section II.C.8.
    The changes in emissions that are presented in Section VII.A would
also impact ambient levels of ozone, PM2.5, NO2,
SO2, CO, and air toxics over a larger geographic scale.
Photochemical air quality modeling is necessary to predict these air
quality impacts of the proposal's emissions changes, because many of
these pollutants form in the atmosphere and their concentrations depend
on many complex factors (including the spatial and temporal
distribution of the emissions changes, atmospheric chemistry, and
meteorology). EPA conducted an illustrative air quality modeling
analysis of a regulatory scenario involving light- and medium-duty
vehicle emission reductions and corresponding changes in ``upstream''
emission sources like EGU (electric generating unit) emissions and
refinery emissions. Decisions about the emissions and other elements
used in the air quality modeling were made early in the analytical
process for the proposed rulemaking. Accordingly, the air quality
analysis does not represent the proposal's regulatory scenario, nor
does it reflect the expected impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act
(IRA). Based on updated power sector modeling that incorporated
expected generation mix impacts of the IRA, we are projecting the IRA
will lead to a significantly cleaner power grid; nevertheless, the
analysis provides some insights into potential air quality impacts
associated with emissions increases and decreases from these multiple
sectors. Chapter 8 of the DRIA provides details on the methodology,
emissions inputs, and results of this illustrative air quality
modeling.
    On the basis of the exploratory air quality modeling, we conclude
that in 2055 the proposal would result in widespread decreases in
ozone, PM2.5, NO2, CO, and some air toxics, even
when accounting for the impacts of increased electricity generation.
While the results of the illustrative analysis include some increases
in ambient pollutant concentrations, as the power sector becomes
cleaner over time as a result of the IRA and future policies, these
impacts would decrease. Although the specific locations of increased
air pollution are uncertain, we expect them to be in more limited
geographic areas, compared to the widespread decreases that we predict
to result from the reductions in vehicle emissions.

VIII. Estimated Costs and Benefits and Associated Considerations

    This section presents a summary of costs, benefits, and net
benefits plus additional considerations associated with these costs and
benefits. We begin with a high-level summary in Section VIII.A. of this
preamble, followed by more detailed content and discussion in
subsequent subsections.

A. Summary of Costs and Benefits

    This section presents a high-level summary of monetized costs,
benefits, and net benefits of the standards. Using the 3 percent
average SC-GHG value for climate benefits, the net benefits for the
proposal are $200 billion to $220 billion for calendar year (CY) 2055.
The present value (PV) of net benefits for calendar years 2027 through
2055, with discounting to 2027, is $1.6 trillion using a 3 percent
discount rate and $850 billion using a 7 percent discount rate. The
equivalent annualized values (EAV) of those present values are $85
billion and $60 billion, respectively.\769\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \769\ The equivalent annualized value (EAV) of benefits, costs,
and net benefits represent a flow of constant annual values that,
had they occurred in each year from 2027 to 2055, would yield an
equivalent present value to those in each of the summary tables
(using either a 3 percent or 7 percent discount rate).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Costs and benefits are categorized into non-emission costs, fueling
impacts, non-emissions benefits, climate benefits, and criteria air
pollutant benefits. Table 156 breaks down net benefits into costs and
benefits for CY 2055, as well as present values (PV) and equivalent
annualized values (EAV) using both 3 percent and 7 percent discount
rates for all costs and benefits except for climate benefits. Table 156
shows the climate benefits using the central SC-GHG values at 5, 3 and
2.5 percent discount rate, as well as the 95th percentile values at 3
percent discount rate, and the associated net benefits.\770\ The same
discount rate used to discount the value of SC-GHGs (at 5, 3, and 2.5
percent) is used to calculate the present and equivalent annualized
values of SC-GHGs for internal consistency, we discuss each of these
categories in more depth in the following sections. We seek comment on
the benefit-cost analysis.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \770\ The 3 percent 95th percentile estimates are included to
provide information on potentially higher-than-expected economic
impacts from climate change, conditional on the 3 percent estimate
of the discount rate.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Note that some non-emission costs are shown as negative values in
Table 156. Those entries represent savings but are included as costs
because, traditionally, things like repair and maintenance have been
viewed as costs of vehicle operation. Where negative values are shown,
we are estimating that those costs are lower in the proposal than in
the no-action case. Congestion and noise costs are attributable to
increased congestion and roadway noise resulting from our assumption
that drivers may choose to drive more under the proposal versus the no
action case. Those increased miles are known as rebound miles and are
discussed in Section VIII.F.1 and Chapter 4 of the DRIA.
    Similarly, some of the traditional benefits of rulemakings that
result in lower fuel consumption by the transportation fleet, i.e., the
non-emission benefits, are shown as negative values. Our past GHG rules
have estimated that time spent refueling vehicles would be reduced due
to the lower fuel consumption of new vehicles; hence, a benefit.
However, in this analysis, we are estimating that refueling time would
increase somewhat due to our assumptions for mid-trip recharging events
for electric vehicles. Therefore, the increased refueling time
represents a disbenefit (a negative benefit) as shown. As noted in
Section VIII.B.2, we consider our refueling time estimate to be dated
considering the rapid changes taking place in electric vehicle charging
infrastructure driven in no small part by the Inflation Reduction Act,
and we request comment and data on how our estimates could be improved.
    Table 157 through Table 159 show the same summary of benefits and
costs for each of the three alternatives.

       Table 156--Summary of Costs, Fuel Savings and Benefits of the Proposal, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                     [Billions of 2020 dollars] \a\ \b\ \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   CY 2055       PV, 3%       PV, 7%      EAV, 3%      EAV, 7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Non-Emission Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle Technology Costs.......................           10          280          180           15           15
Repair Costs...................................          -24         -170          -79         -8.9         -6.5
Maintenance Costs..............................          -51         -410         -200          -21          -16
Congestion Costs...............................         0.16          2.3          1.3         0.12         0.11
Noise Costs....................................       0.0025        0.037        0.021       0.0019       0.0017
Sum of Non-Emission Costs......................          -65         -290          -96          -15         -7.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Fueling Impacts
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-tax Fuel Savings...........................           93          890          450           46           37
EVSE Port Costs................................          7.1          120           68          6.2          5.6
Sum of Fuel Savings less EVSE Port Costs.......           86          770          380           40           31
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Non-Emission Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Value Benefits...........................         0.31          4.8          2.7         0.25         0.22
Refueling Time Benefits........................         -8.2          -85          -45         -4.4         -3.6
Energy Security Benefits.......................          4.4           41           21          2.2          1.7
Sum of Non-Emission Benefits...................         -3.6          -39          -21           -2         -1.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Climate Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5% Average.....................................           15           82           82          5.4          5.4
3% Average.....................................           38          330          330           17           17
2.5% Average...................................           52          500          500           25           25
3% 95th Percentile.............................          110        1,000        1,000           52           52
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Criteria Air Pollutant Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Wu et al., 2020.........        16-18          140           63          7.5          5.1
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Pope III et al., 2019...        31-34          280          130           15           10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Net Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With Climate 5% Average........................      180-200        1,400          610           74           48
With Climate 3% Average........................      200-220        1,600          850           85           60
With Climate 2.5% Average......................      210-230        1,800        1,000           93           67
With Climate 3% 95th Percentile................      280-290        2,300        1,500          120           95
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ The same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHG at 5, 3, 2.5
  percent) is used to calculate present and equivalent annualized values of SC-GHGs for internal consistency,
  while all other costs and benefits are discounted at either 3 percent or 7 percent.
\b\ PM2.5-related health benefits are presented based on two different long-term exposure studies of mortality
  risk: a Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and a National Health Interview Survey study (Pope III et al., 2019).
  The criteria pollutant benefits associated with the standards presented here do not include the full
  complement of health and environmental benefits that, if quantified and monetized, would increase the total
  monetized benefits.
\c\ For net benefits, the range in 2055 uses the low end of the Wu et al. (2020) range and the high end of the
  Pope III et al. (2019) range. The present and equivalent annualized value of net benefits for a 3 percent
  discount rate reflect benefits based on the Pope III et al. (2019) study while the present and equivalent
  annualized values of net benefits for a 7 percent discount rate reflect benefits based on the Wu et al. (2020)
  study.

     Table 157--Summary of Costs, Fuel Savings and Benefits of the Alternative 1, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                     [Billions of 2020 dollars] \a\ \b\ \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   CY 2055       PV, 3%       PV, 7%      EAV, 3%      EAV, 7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Non-Emission Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle Technology Costs.......................           11          330          220           17           18
Repair Costs...................................          -26         -180          -82         -9.3         -6.7
Maintenance Costs..............................          -57         -450         -220          -24          -18
Congestion Costs...............................         0.11          3.5          2.2         0.18         0.18
Noise Costs....................................       0.0017        0.055        0.034       0.0028       0.0027
Sum of Non-Emission Costs......................          -71         -300          -82          -15         -6.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Fueling Impacts
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-tax Fuel Savings...........................          100          990          510           51           41
EVSE Port Costs................................          7.1          120           68          6.2          5.6
Sum of Fuel Savings less EVSE Port Costs.......           95          870          440           45           36
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Non-Emission Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Value Benefits...........................         0.22          6.5          3.9         0.34         0.32
Refueling Time Benefits........................         -8.8          -90          -47         -4.7         -3.8
Energy Security Benefits.......................          4.8           46           23          2.4          1.9
Sum of Non-Emission Benefits...................         -3.8          -38          -20           -2         -1.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Climate Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5% Average.....................................           16           91           91            6            6
3% Average.....................................           41          360          360           19           19

2.5% Average...................................           57          560          560           27           27
3% 95th Percentile.............................          120        1,100        1,100           58           58
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Criteria Air Pollutant Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Wu et al., 2020.........        16-18          150           66          7.7          5.3
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Pope III et al., 2019...        32-35          290          130           15           11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Net Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With Climate 5% Average........................      200-210        1,500          660           80           52
With Climate 3% Average........................      220-240        1,800          930           93           65
With Climate 2.5% Average......................      240-260        2,000        1,100          100           73
With Climate 3% 95th Percentile................      300-320        2,500        1,700          130          100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ The same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHG at 5, 3, 2.5
  percent) is used to calculate present and equivalent annualized values of SC-GHGs for internal consistency,
  while all other costs and benefits are discounted at either 3 percent or 7 percent.
\b\ PM2.5-related health benefits are presented based on two different long-term exposure studies of mortality
  risk: a Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and a National Health Interview Survey study (Pope III et al., 2019).
  The criteria pollutant benefits associated with the standards presented here do not include the full
  complement of health and environmental benefits that, if quantified and monetized, would increase the total
  monetized benefits.
\c\ For net benefits, the range in 2055 uses the low end of the Wu et al. (2020) range and the high end of the
  Pope III et al. (2019) range. The present and equivalent annualized value of net benefits for a 3 percent
  discount rate reflect benefits based on the Pope III et al. (2019) study while the present and equivalent
  annualized values of net benefits for a 7 percent discount rate reflect benefits based on the Wu et al. (2020)
  study.

     Table 158--Summary of Costs, Fuel Savings and Benefits of the Alternative 2, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                     [Billions of 2020 dollars] \a\ \b\ \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   CY 2055       PV, 3%       PV, 7%      EAV, 3%      EAV, 7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Non-Emission Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle Technology Costs.......................          8.8          230          140           12           12
Repair Costs...................................          -22         -160          -74         -8.3           -6
Maintenance Costs..............................          -47         -370         -180          -19          -14
Congestion Costs...............................        0.064         0.74         0.48        0.039        0.039
Noise Costs....................................        0.001        0.012       0.0078      0.00064      0.00064
Sum of Non-Emission Costs......................          -60         -300         -110          -16         -8.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Fueling Impacts
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-tax Fuel Savings...........................           84          790          400           41           33
EVSE Port Costs................................          7.1          120           68          6.2          5.6
Sum of Fuel Savings less EVSE Port Costs.......           77          680          330           35           27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Non-Emission Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Value Benefits...........................         0.17          2.4          1.5         0.12         0.12
Refueling Time Benefits........................         -7.6          -79          -41         -4.1         -3.3
Energy Security Benefits.......................          3.9           37           19          1.9          1.5
Sum of Non-Emission Benefits...................         -3.5          -39          -21           -2         -1.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Climate Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5% Average.....................................           13           74           74          4.9          4.9
3% Average.....................................           34          290          290           15           15
2.5% Average...................................           47          450          450           22           22
3% 95th Percentile.............................          100          900          900           47           47
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Criteria Air Pollutant Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Wu et al., 2020.........        15-17          140           61          7.2          4.9
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Pope III et al., 2019...        30-33          270          120           14           10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Net Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With Climate 5% Average........................      160-180        1,300          550           68           44
With Climate 3% Average........................      180-200        1,500          780           78           54
With Climate 2.5% Average......................      200-210        1,700          930           85           61
With Climate 3% 95th Percentile................      250-270        2,100        1,400          110           86
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ The same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHG at 5, 3, 2.5
  percent) is used to calculate present and equivalent annualized values of SC-GHGs for internal consistency,
  while all other costs and benefits are discounted at either 3 percent or 7 percent.
\b\ PM2.5-related health benefits are presented based on two different long-term exposure studies of mortality
  risk: a Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and a National Health Interview Survey study (Pope III et al., 2019).
  The criteria pollutant benefits associated with the standards presented here do not include the full
  complement of health and environmental benefits that, if quantified and monetized, would increase the total
  monetized benefits.
\c\ For net benefits, the range in 2055 uses the low end of the Wu et al. (2020) range and the high end of the
  Pope III et al. (2019) range. The present and equivalent annualized value of net benefits for a 3 percent
  discount rate reflect benefits based on the Pope III et al. (2019) study while the present and equivalent
  annualized values of net benefits for a 7 percent discount rate reflect benefits based on the Wu et al. (2020)
  study.

     Table 159--Summary of Costs, Fuel Savings and Benefits of the Alternative 3, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                     [Billions of 2020 dollars] \a\ \b\ \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   CY 2055       PV, 3%       PV, 7%      EAV, 3%      EAV, 7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Non-Emission Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vehicle Technology Costs.......................           11          270          170           14           14
Repair Costs...................................          -24         -170          -77         -8.6         -6.3
Maintenance Costs..............................          -51         -390         -190          -20          -15
Congestion Costs...............................         0.11          1.5         0.82        0.078        0.066
Noise Costs....................................       0.0016        0.024        0.013       0.0012       0.0011
Sum of Non-Emission Costs......................          -64         -290          -95          -15         -7.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Fueling Impacts
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-tax Fuel Savings...........................           93          850          430           45           35
EVSE Port Costs................................          7.1          120           68          6.2          5.6
Sum of Fuel Savings less EVSE Port Costs.......           86          740          360           38           29
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Non-Emission Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drive Value Benefits...........................         0.21          3.2          1.8         0.17         0.15
Refueling Time Benefits........................         -8.2          -83          -43         -4.3         -3.5
Energy Security Benefits.......................          4.4           40           20          2.1          1.6
Sum of Non-Emission Benefits...................         -3.6          -39          -21         -2.1         -1.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Climate Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5% Average.....................................           15           80           80          5.3          5.3
3% Average.....................................           38          320          320           17           17
2.5% Average...................................           52          490          490           24           24
3% 95th Percentile.............................          110          970          970           51           51
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Criteria Air Pollutant Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Wu et al., 2020.........        16-18          140           62          7.3          5.0
PM2.5 Health Benefits--Pope III et al., 2019...        31-34          280          120           14           10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Net Benefits
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With Climate 5% Average........................      180-190        1,300          580           71           46
With Climate 3% Average........................      200-220        1,600          820           82           57
With Climate 2.5% Average......................      210-230        1,800          990           90           64
With Climate 3% 95th Percentile................      270-290        2,200        1,500          120           91
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ The same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SC-GHG at 5, 3, 2.5
  percent) is used to calculate present and equivalent annualized values of SC-GHGs for internal consistency,
  while all other costs and benefits are discounted at either 3 percent or 7 percent.
\b\ PM2.5-related health benefits are presented based on two different long-term exposure studies of mortality
  risk: a Medicare study (Wu et al., 2020) and a National Health Interview Survey study (Pope III et al., 2019).
  The criteria pollutant benefits associated with the standards presented here do not include the full
  complement of health and environmental benefits that, if quantified and monetized, would increase the total
  monetized benefits.
\c\ For net benefits, the range in 2055 uses the low end of the Wu et al. (2020) range and the high end of the
  Pope III et al. (2019) range. The present and equivalent annualized value of net benefits for a 3 percent
  discount rate reflect benefits based on the Pope III et al. (2019) study while the present and equivalent
  annualized values of net benefits for a 7 percent discount rate reflect benefits based on the Wu et al. (2020)
  study.

B. Vehicle Cost and Fueling Impacts

1. Vehicle Technology and Purchase Price Impacts
    Table 160 shows the estimated annual vehicle technology costs of
the program for the indicated calendar years (CY). The table also shows
the present-values (PV) of those costs and the equivalent annualized
values (EAV) for the calendar years 2027-2055 using both 3 percent and
7 percent discount rates.\771\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \771\ For the estimation of the stream of costs and benefits, we
assume that after implementation of the MY 2027 and later standards,
the MY 2032 standards apply to each year thereafter.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We expect the technology costs of the program will result in a rise
in the average purchase price for consumers, for both new and used
vehicles. While we expect that vehicle manufacturers will strategically
price vehicles (e.g., subsidizing a lower price for some vehicles with
a higher price for others), we assume in our modeling that increased
vehicle technology costs will fully impact purchase prices paid by
consumers. These projected vehicle technology costs represent the
incremental costs to manufacturers. For consumers, projected vehicle
technology costs are offset by savings in reduced operating costs,
including fuel savings and reduced maintenance and repair costs, as
discussed in Section VIII.B.3 and in Chapter 4 of the DRIA.
Additionally, consumers may also benefit from IRA purchase incentives
for PEVs.

  Table 160--Vehicle Technology Costs Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-
                                                      Duty
                                           [Billions of 2020 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Vehicle technology   Vehicle technology   Vehicle technology
        Calendar year          Vehicle technology   costs, alternative   costs, alternative   costs, alternative
                                costs, proposal             1                    2                    3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................                  7.5                  7.9                  5.5                  2.6

2028........................                  6.8                   10                    5                  2.3
2029........................                  6.6                   14                  5.8                  1.8
2030........................                  8.7                   17                  6.1                  4.9
2031........................                   13                   20                   11                   12
2032........................                   17                   23                   15                   18
2035........................                   22                   24                   17                   24
2040........................                   19                   20                   15                   18
2045........................                   13                   13                   10                   13
2050........................                   12                   13                   10                   12
2055........................                   10                   11                  8.8                   11
PV3.........................                  280                  330                  230                  270
PV7.........................                  180                  220                  140                  170
EAV3........................                   15                   17                   12                   14
EAV7........................                   15                   18                   12                   14
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Fueling Impacts
i. Fuel Savings
    The proposed standards are projected to reduce liquid fuel
consumption (gasoline and diesel) while simultaneously increasing
electricity consumption. The net effect of these changes in consumption
for consumers is decreased fuel expenditures or fuel savings. Electric
Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) port costs, which reflect capital costs
for procuring and installing PEV charging infrastructure, are also
shown. For more information regarding fuel consumption, including other
considerations like rebound driving, see DRIA Chapter 4. See Section IV
of this Preamble and Chapter 5 of the DRIA for more detail on EVSE port
costs.
    Fuel savings arise from reduced expenditures on liquid-fuel due to
reduced consumption of those fuels. Electricity consumption is expected
to increase, with a corresponding increase in expenditures, due to
electric vehicles replacing liquid-fueled vehicles. We describe how we
calculate reduced fuel consumption and increased electricity
consumption in Chapter 9 of the DRIA. Table 161 presents liquid-fuel
consumption impacts and Table 162 presents electricity consumption
impacts.

Table 161--Liquid-Fuel Consumption Impacts Associated With the Proposal and Each of the Alternatives, Light-Duty
                                                 and Medium-Duty
                                      [Billions of gallons of liquid fuel]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Liquid-fuel          Liquid-fuel          Liquid-Fuel
        Calendar year             Liquid-fuel            impacts,             impacts,             impacts,
                               impacts, proposal      alternative 1        alternative 2        alternative 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................                -0.89                -0.93                -0.65                -0.53
2028........................                 -2.2                 -2.5                 -1.6                 -1.3
2029........................                   -4                 -4.4                 -3.2                 -2.3
2030........................                 -6.1                   -7                 -4.9                 -3.9
2031........................                 -8.6                 -9.8                   -7                 -6.3
2032........................                  -12                  -13                 -9.6                 -9.3
2035........................                  -21                  -23                  -19                  -19
2040........................                  -34                  -38                  -31                  -33
2045........................                  -42                  -47                  -38                  -42
2050........................                  -48                  -52                  -43                  -48
2055........................                  -49                  -54                  -44                  -49
sum.........................                 -900               -1,000                 -810                 -870
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 162--Electricity Consumption Impacts Associated With the Proposal and Each of the Alternatives, Light-Duty
                                                 and Medium-Duty
                                                [Terawatt hours]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Electricity          Electricity          Electricity
        Calendar year             Electricity            impacts,             impacts,             impacts,
                               impacts, proposal      alternative 1        alternative 2        alternative 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................                  8.9                  9.3                  6.4                  5.4
2028........................                   21                   23                   15                   13
2029........................                   38                   39                   29                   22
2030........................                   56                   61                   44                   36
2031........................                   78                   84                   64                   58
2032........................                  100                  110                   86                   85
2035........................                  190                  200                  170                  170

2040........................                  300                  330                  280                  290
2045........................                  380                  420                  350                  380
2050........................                  430                  470                  390                  430
2055........................                  440                  490                  400                  440
sum.........................                8,100                8,900                7,400                7,900
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 163 presents the retail fuel savings, net of savings in
liquid fuel expenditures and increases in electricity expenditures.
These represent savings that consumers would realize. Table 164
presents the pretax fuel savings, net of savings in liquid fuel
expenditures and increases in electricity expenditures. These represent
the savings included in the net benefit calculation since fuel taxes do
not contribute to the value of the fuel. We present fuel tax impacts
along with other transfers in Section VIII.B.4. The net benefits
calculation also includes the EVSE costs presented in Table 165.
    The estimated present value pre-tax fuel savings associated with
the proposed standards are $450 billion and $890 billion using 7 and 3
percent discount rates, respectively. Table 163 and Table 164 also show
the undiscounted annual monetized fuel savings and the present value
(PV) of those costs and equivalent annualized value (EAV) for the
calendar years 2027-2055 using both 3 percent and 7 percent discount
rates.

  Table 163--Retail Fuel Savings Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                          [Billions of 2020 dollars] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Retail fuel          Retail fuel          Retail fuel
        Calendar year             Retail fuel            savings,             savings,             savings,
                               savings, proposal      alternative 1        alternative 2        alternative 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................                  1.2                  1.3                  0.9                  0.7
2028........................                  3.2                  3.7                  2.4                  1.9
2029........................                    6                    7                  4.8                  3.5
2030........................                   10                   12                  8.1                  6.5
2031........................                   14                   17                   12                   11
2032........................                   20                   23                   17                   16
2035........................                   39                   44                   34                   35
2040........................                   69                   77                   61                   66
2045........................                   89                   98                   80                   87
2050........................                  100                  110                   93                  100
2055........................                  110                  120                   98                  110
PV3.........................                1,100                1,200                  950                1,000
PV7.........................                  550                  610                  490                  520
EAV3........................                   56                   62                   50                   54
EAV7........................                   45                   50                   40                   42
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Positive values represent monetary savings.

  Table 164--Pretax Fuel Savings Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                          [Billions of 2020 dollars] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Pretax fuel          Pretax fuel          Pretax fuel
        Calendar year             Pretax fuel            savings,             savings,             savings,
                               savings, proposal      alternative 1        alternative 2        alternative 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................                  0.9                  0.9                  0.7                  0.5
2028........................                  2.4                  2.8                  1.8                  1.5
2029........................                  4.7                  5.4                  3.7                  2.7
2030........................                  7.7                  9.2                  6.2                    5
2031........................                   11                   13                  9.2                  8.2
2032........................                   16                   18                   13                   13
2035........................                   31                   35                   27                   28
2040........................                   56                   63                   50                   54
2045........................                   74                   82                   66                   73
2050........................                   88                   97                   79                   87
2055........................                   93                  100                   84                   93
PV3.........................                  890                  990                  790                  850
PV7.........................                  450                  510                  400                  430
EAV3........................                   46                   51                   41                   45

EAV7........................                   37                   41                   33                   35
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Positive values represent monetary savings.

Table 165--EVSE Costs Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative,
                       Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                      [Billions of 2020 dollars] *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          EVSE costs,
                    Calendar year                      proposal and each
                                                          alternative
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027................................................                 1.3
2028................................................                0.66
2029................................................                 1.1
2030................................................                 1.1
2031................................................                 8.3
2032................................................                 8.3
2035................................................                 6.7
2040................................................                 7.1
2045................................................                 7.3
2050................................................                 7.1
2055................................................                 7.1
PV3.................................................                 120
PV7.................................................                  68
EAV3................................................                 6.2
EAV7................................................                 5.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Positive values represent costs.

ii. Refueling Time
    In our analyses, we take into account refueling differences among
liquid fuel vehicles, BEVs, and PHEVs. Stringent GHG standards have
traditionally resulted in lower fuel consumption by liquid fueled
vehicles. Provided fuel tanks on liquid fueled vehicles retain their
capacity, lower fuel consumption is expected to reduce the frequency of
refueling events and therefore reduce the time spent refueling
resulting from less time spent seeking a refueling opportunity. OEMs
may also elect to package smaller fuel tanks, leveraging lower fuel
consumption to meet vehicle range, which would also lower the time
spent refueling resulting from less time spent at the fuel pump.
Consistent with past analyses, we have estimated the former of these
possibilities with respect to liquid fueled vehicles.
    Electric vehicles are fueled via charging events. Many charging
events are expected to occur at an owner's residence via a personally
owned charge point or during work hours using an employer owned charge
point, both of which impose very little time burden on the driver.
However, charging events will also occur in public places where the
burden on the driver's time may be relatively long (e.g., when drivers
are in the midst of an extended road trip). Thus, liquid fueling events
and mid-trip charging events are the focus of our refueling time
analysis. See DRIA Chapter 4 for a more detailed discussion of this
analysis. We request comment on our approach, specifically regarding
the charging time for PEVs.
    Note that the benefits associated with reduced refueling time are
shown in Table 166 as negative values. In other words, we have
estimated disbenefits associated with refueling time. The disbenefit
arises from the time associated with BEV mid-trip refueling, which is
estimated to result in more time spent refueling relative to our no-
action scenario. As noted, we request comment on our approach which, in
its current form is taken from the 2021 rule and given the pace of
change in the BEV charging infrastructure and the presence of the IRA,
can already be considered somewhat dated.

               Table 166--Refueling Benefits From Time Saved Associated With the Proposal and Each Alternative, Light-Duty and Medium-Duty
                                                              [Billions of 2020 dollars] *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               Benefits associated    Benefits associated    Benefits associated    Benefits associated
                                                                   with reduced           with reduced           with reduced           with reduced
                        Calendar year                            refueling time,        refueling time,        refueling time,        refueling time,
                                                                     proposal            alternative 1          alternative 2          alternative 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2027........................................................                   -0.1                   -0.2                   -0.1                   -0.1
2028........................................................                  -0.36                  -0.38                  -0.27                  -0.25
2029........................................................                  -0.67                  -0.67                  -0.55                  -0.47
2030........................................................                     -1                   -1.1                  -0.88                  -0.78
2031........................................................                   -1.5                   -1.5                   -1.2                   -1.2
2032........................................................                   -1.9                   -1.9                   -1.6                   -1.6

2035........................................................                   -3.4                   -3.5                   -3.1                   -3.2
2040........................................................                   -5.5                   -5.8                   -5.1                   -5.4
2045........................................................                   -6.9                   -7.4                   -6.5                   -6.9
2050........................................................                   -7.9                   -8.4                   -7.3                   -7.8
2055........................................................                   -8.2                   -8.8                   -7.6                   -8.2
PV3.........................................................                    -85                    -90                    -79                    -83
PV7.........................................................                    -45                    -47                    -41                    -43
EAV3........................................................                   -4.4                   -4.7                   -4.1                   -4.3