[Federal Register Volume 76, Number 180 (Friday, September 16, 2011)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 57846-57869]
[FR Doc No: 2011-23656]

Vol. 76

Friday,

No. 180

September 16, 2011

Part III

Environmental Protection Administration

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40 CFR Part 50

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; San Joaquin
Valley; Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard; Proposed Rule

Federal Register / Vol. 76 , No. 180 / Friday, September 16, 2011 /
Proposed Rules

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2011-0589; FRL-9464-9]

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; San
Joaquin Valley; Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve state implementation plan (SIP)
revisions submitted by California to provide for attainment of the 1997
8-hour ozone national ambient air quality standards in the San Joaquin
Valley (SJV). These SIP revisions are the 2007 Ozone Plan (revised 2008
and 2011) and SJV-related portions of the 2007 State Strategy (revised
2009 and 2011). EPA is proposing to approve the emissions inventories,
reasonably available control measures demonstration, provisions for
transportation control strategies and measures, provisions for advanced
technology/clean fuels for boilers, reasonable further progress (RFP)
and attainment demonstrations, transportation conformity motor vehicle
emissions budgets for all RFP milestone years and the attainment year,
contingency measures for failure to make RFP or attain, and Clean Air
Act section 182(e)(5) new technologies provisions and associated
commitment to adopt contingency measures. EPA is also proposing to
approve commitments to measures and reductions by the SJV Air Pollution
Control District and the California Air Resources Board. In the
alternative, EPA is proposing to disapprove the SIP with respect to
certain provisions for transportation control strategies and measures
sufficient to offset any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle
miles traveled or the number of vehicle trips.

DATES: Written comments must be received on or before October 17, 2011.

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-OAR-
2011-0622, by one of the following methods:
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov.
Follow the online instructions.
     E-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS>     Mail or deliver: Marty Robin, Office of Air Planning (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IX, 75 Hawthorne
Street, San Francisco, CA 94105.
    Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket
without change and may be made available online at http://www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided,
unless the comment includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or
other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Information that you consider CBI or otherwise protected should be
clearly identified as such and should not be submitted through http://www.regulations.gov or e-mail. The http://www.regulations.gov Web site
is an ``anonymous access'' system, and EPA will not know your identity
or contact information unless you provide it in the body of your
comment. If you send e-mail directly to EPA, your e-mail address will
be automatically captured and included as part of the public comment.
If EPA cannot read your comments due to technical difficulties and
cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to consider
your comment.
    Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available
electronically on the http://www.regulations.gov Web site and in hard
copy at EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, California
94105. While all documents in the docket are listed in the index, some
documents may be publicly available only at the hard copy location
(e.g., copyrighted material), and some may not be publicly available at
either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please
schedule an appointment during normal business hours with the contact
listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section below.
    Copies of the SIP materials are also available for inspection at
the following locations:
     California Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento,
California 95812, and
     San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District, 1990 E.
Gettysburg, Fresno, California 93726.
    The SIP materials are also electronically available at: http://aqmd.gov/aqmp/07aqmp/index.html, http://www.valleyair.org/Air_Quality_Plans/AQ_Final_Adopted_Ozone2007.htm and http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Frances Wicher, Air Planning Office
(AIR-2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, (415) 972-
3957<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. The 1997 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS and the San Joaquin Valley Ozone
Nonattainment Area
    A. Background on the 1997 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
    B. The SJV 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Attainment
SIPs
III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address
Ozone Attainment in the San Joaquin Valley
    A. California's SIP Submittals
    B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP
Submissions
IV. Review of the SJV 2007 Ozone Plan and SJV Portion of the 2007
State Strategy
    A. Emissions Inventories
    B. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and
Control Strategy
    C. Attainment Demonstration
    D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
    E. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control
Measures To Offset Emissions Increases From VMT Increases, To
Provide for RFP and Attainment
    F. Contingency Measures
    G. Advanced Control Technology and Clean Fuels for Boilers
    H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
    I. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
V. EPA's Proposed Actions
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and ``our'' refer to
EPA.

I. The 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard and the San Joaquin Valley Ozone
Nonattainment Area

A. Background on the 1997 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

    Ground-level ozone pollution is formed by the reaction of volatile
organic compounds (VOC) \1\ and nitrogen oxides (NOX) in the
atmosphere in the presence of sunlight. These two pollutants, referred
to as ozone precursors, are emitted by many types of pollution sources
including on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden
equipment and paints.
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    \1\ California plans sometimes use the term Reactive Organic
Gases (ROG) for VOC. These terms are essentially synonymous. For
simplicity, we use the term VOC to mean either VOC or ROG.
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    Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases. Ozone exposure also has
been associated with increased susceptibility to respiratory

infections, medication use, doctor visits, and emergency department
visits and hospital admissions for individuals with lung disease. Ozone
exposure also increases the risk of premature death from heart or lung
disease. Children are at increased risk from exposure to ozone because
their lungs are still developing and they are more likely to be active
outdoors, which increases their exposure. See ``Fact Sheet, Proposal to
Revise the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone,'' January
6, 2010 and 75 FR 2938 (January 19, 2010).
    On July 18, 1997, EPA revised the primary and secondary national
ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or standard) for ozone to replace
the existing 1-hour ozone standard of 0.12 parts per million (ppm) with
an 8-hour standard set at 0.08 ppm. 62 FR 33856.\2\ EPA revised the
ozone standard after considering substantial evidence from numerous
health studies demonstrating that serious health effects are associated
with exposures to ozone concentrations above the levels of these
revised standards.
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    \2\ In March 2008, EPA completed another review of the primary
and secondary ozone standards and tightened them further by lowering
the level for both to 0.075 ppm. 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008).
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B. The SJV 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

    Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, EPA is required
by Clean Air Act (CAA) section 107(d) to designate areas throughout the
Nation as attaining or not attaining the NAAQS. On April 15, 2004, EPA
designated the SJV as nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard
and classified the area as ``serious'' under CAA section 181(a)(1) and
40 CFR 51.903(a), Table 1. See 69 FR 23858 at 23888-89 (April 30, 2004)
and 40 CFR 81.305. The designation and classification became effective
on June 15, 2004. In 2007, California requested that EPA reclassify the
SJV from ``serious'' to ``extreme'' nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour
ozone standard under CAA section 181(b)(3).\3\ We granted California's
request on May 5, 2010 and reclassified the SJV to extreme
nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard effective June 4,
2010. See 75 FR 24409.
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    \3\ See SJVUAPCD Governing Board Resolution No. 07-04-11a (April
30, 2007), p. 4; CARB Resolution No. 07-20 (June 14, 2007), p. 6;
and letter, James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne
Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, November 17, 2007.
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    The SJV 8-hour ozone nonattainment area is home to almost 4 million
people and is the Nation's leading agricultural area. Stretching over
250 miles from north to south and averaging 80 miles wide, it is
partially enclosed by the Coast Mountain range to the west, the
Tehachapi Mountains to the south, and the Sierra Nevada range to the
east. It encompasses over 23,000 square miles and includes all or part
of eight counties: San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno,
Tulare, Kings, and the valley portion of Kern. For a precise
description of the geographic boundaries of the San Joaquin Valley 8-
hour ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305. The local air
district which has primary responsibility for developing a plan to
attain the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS in this area, is the San Joaquin
Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District (SJVUAPCD or District).
    Ambient 8-hour ozone values in the SJV vary depending on the
location with the highest values being recorded on its eastern edge
from Fresno to south of Bakersfield. For the 2008-2010 period, the 8-
hour ozone design value for the area is 0.104 ppm, recorded at the
Arvin-Bear Mountain Boulevard monitoring site southeast of
Bakersfield.\4\
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    \4\ See EPA, Air Quality System Preliminary Design Report dated
September 18, 2011 in the docket for today's proposal. A design
value is an ambient concentration calculated using a specific
methodology to evaluate monitored air quality data and is used to
determine whether an area's air quality meets a NAAQS. The
methodology for calculating design values for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS
is found in 40 CFR part 50, Appendix I.
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II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment
Area SIPs

    States must implement the 1997 8-hour ozone standard under Title 1,
part D of the CAA, which includes section 172, ``Nonattainment plan
provisions,'' and subpart 2, ``Additional Provisions for Ozone
Nonattainment Areas'' (sections 181-185).
    In order to assist states in developing effective plans to address
their ozone nonattainment problem, EPA issued the 8-hour ozone
implementation rule. This rule was finalized in two phases. The first
phase of the rule addresses classifications for the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard, applicable attainment dates for the various classifications,
and the timing of emissions reductions needed for attainment. See 69 FR
23951 (April 30, 2004). The second phase addresses SIP submittal dates
and the requirements for reasonably available control technology and
measures (RACT and RACM), reasonable further progress (RFP)
demonstration, modeling and attainment demonstrations, contingency
measures, and new source review. See 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005).
The rule is codified at 40 CFR part 51, subpart X.\5\ We discuss each
of these CAA and regulatory requirements for 8-hour ozone nonattainment
plans in more detail below.
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    \5\ EPA has revised or proposed to revise several elements of
the 8-hour ozone implementation rule since its initial promulgation
in 2004. See, e.g., 74 FR 2936 (January 16, 2009); 75 FR 51960
(August 24, 2010); and 75 FR 80420 (December 22, 2010). None of
these revisions affect any provision of the rule that is applicable
to EPA's proposed actions on the SJV 2007 8-hour Ozone SIP.
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III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address Ozone
Attainment in the San Joaquin Valley

A. California's SIP Submittals

    Designation of an area as nonattainment starts the process for a
state to develop and submit to EPA a SIP providing for attainment of
the NAAQS under title 1, part D of the CAA. For 8-hour ozone areas
designated as nonattainment effective June 15, 2004, this SIP was due
by June 15, 2007. See CAA 172(b) and 40 CFR 51.908(a) and 51.910.
    California has made five SIP submittals to address the CAA's
planning requirements for attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in
the San Joaquin Valley. We refer to these submittals collectively as
the ``[SJV] 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP.'' The two principal ones are the
SJVUAPCD's 2007 Ozone Plan (also Plan) and the California Air Resources
Board's (CARB) State Strategy for California's 2007 State
Implementation Plan (2007 State Strategy).
1. SJV 2007 Ozone Plan
    The 2007 Ozone Plan was adopted by the District's Governing Board
on April 30, 2007 and by CARB on June 14, 2007 and submitted to EPA on
November 16, 2007.\6\ It includes an attainment demonstration,
commitments by the SJVUAPCD to adopt control measures to achieve
emissions reductions from sources under its jurisdiction (primarily
stationary sources), and motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEB) used
for transportation conformity purposes. The attainment demonstration
includes air quality modeling, an analysis of CAA section 172
reasonably available control

measures (RACM), base year and projected year emissions inventories,
and contingency measures. On April 24, 2009, CARB submitted a minor
amendment to the 2007 Ozone Plan's strategy to extend the adoption date
for Control Measure S-Gov-5 ``Composting Green Waste.'' \7\
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    \6\ See San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control
District (SJVUAPCD) Governing Board Resolution 07-04-11a: In the
Matter of Adopting the San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution
Control District 2007 Ozone Plan, April 30, 2007; CARB Resolution
No. 07-20, June 14, 2007; letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9,
November 16, 2007 with enclosures; and letter, James N. Goldstene,
Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region 9, February 1, 2008 with enclosures (revising the RFP
demonstrations for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley air
basins).
    \7\ See SJVUAPCD Governing Board Resolution No. 08-12-18,
December 18, 2008; and letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB to Laura Yoshii, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA
Region 9, April 24, 2009, with enclosures.
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2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
    To demonstrate attainment, the 2007 Ozone Plan relies to a large
extent on measures and commitments in CARB's 2007 State Strategy. The
2007 State Strategy was adopted by CARB on September 27, 2007 and
submitted to EPA on November 16, 2007.\8\ It describes CARB's overall
approach to addressing, in conjunction with local plans, attainment of
both the 1997 8-hour ozone and 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS in all
nonattainment areas in the State, including the San Joaquin Valley. It
also includes CARB's commitments to propose 15 defined State measures
\9\ and to obtain specific amounts of aggregate reductions of VOC and
NOX emissions in the SJV from sources under the State's
jurisdiction, which are primarily on- and off-road motor vehicles and
engines, consumer products, and fuels.
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    \8\ See CARB Resolution No. 07-28, September 27, 2007 with
attachments and letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB,
to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, November 16,
2007 with enclosures.
    \9\ The 2007 State Strategy also includes measures to be
implemented by the California Bureau of Automotive Repair (Smog
Check improvements) and the California Department of Pesticide
Regulation (VOC reductions from pesticide use). See 2007 State
Strategy, pp. 64-65 and CARB Resolution 7-28, Attachment B, p. 8.
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    On August 12, 2009, CARB submitted the ``Status Report on the State
Strategy for California's 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP) and
Proposed Revision to the SIP Reflecting Implementation of the 2007
State Strategy,'' dated March 24, 2009 and adopted April 24, 2009 (2009
State Strategy Status Report).\10\ This submittal updated the 2007
State Strategy to reflect its implementation during 2007 and 2008.
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    \10\ See CARB Resolution No. 09-34, April 24, 2009, with
attachments and letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB,
to Laura Yoshii, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, August
12, 2009 with enclosures. Only pages 11-27 of the 2009 State
Strategy Status Report are submitted as a SIP revision. The balance
is for informational purposes only. See Attachment A to the CARB
Resolution No. 09-34.
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    In today's proposal, we are evaluating only those portions of the
2007 State Strategy and its revisions that are relevant for attainment
of the 8-hour standard in the San Joaquin Valley.
3. CARB 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions
    On July 29, 2011, CARB submitted the ``8-Hour Ozone State
Implementation Plan Revisions and Technical Revisions to the
PM2.5 State Implementation Plan Transportation Conformity
Budgets for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,'' dated
June 20, 2011 and adopted July 21, 2011 (2011 Ozone SIP Revisions).\11\
This submittal updates both the 2007 State Strategy and the SJV 2007
Ozone Plan. Specifically, it amends CARB's rulemaking schedule for the
Agricultural Engines measure.\12\ It also updates the emissions
inventories, RFP demonstration, contingency measures, and
transportation conformity MVEB for the SJV to reflect rule adoptions
and improvements to emissions inventories. CARB provided supplemental
documentation for the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions on August 10, 2011 (2011
Ozone SIP Revision Supplement).\13\
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    \11\ See CARB Resolution No. 11-22, July 21, 2011 and letter,
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, July 29, 2011, with
enclosures.
    \12\ In May 2011, CARB adopted other updates and revisions to
its rulemaking schedule in the 2007 State Strategy. See CARB,
Progress Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation
Plans (SIP) for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins
and Proposed SIP Revisions, submitted on May 18, 2011 (2011 Progress
Report). We proposed to approve those revisions on July 13, 2011 (76
FR 41338).
    \13\ Letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive Office, CARB, to
Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA Region 9, August 10,
2011.
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    Future references in this proposal to the 2007 State Strategy and
to the SJV 2007 Ozone Plan will be to the Strategy as revised in 2009
and 2011 and the Plan as revised in 2009 and 2011, respectively, unless
otherwise noted.

B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP Submittals

    CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing
prior to the adoption and submittal of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public
hearing was provided consistent with EPA's implementing regulations in
40 CFR 51.102.
    Both the District and CARB have satisfied applicable statutory and
regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior
to adoption and submittal of the 2007 Ozone Plan. The District
conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods, and held a
public hearing prior to the adoption of the Plan on April 30, 2007. See
2007 Ozone Plan, p. ES-1 and SJVUAPCD Governing Board Resolution, p. 3.
CARB provided the required public notice and opportunity for public
comment prior to its June 14, 2007 public hearing on the Plan. See CARB
Resolution No. 07-20. The District also provided the required public
notice and hearing on the 2009 revision to the Plan. See SJVUAPCD
Governing Board Resolution No. 08-12-18, December 18, 2008, p. 2.
    CARB conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods,
and held a public hearing prior to the adoption of the 2007 State
Strategy on September 27, 2007. See CARB Resolution No. 07-28. CARB
also provided the required public notice, opportunity for public
comment, and a public hearing prior to its April 24, 2009 adoption of
the 2009 State Strategy Status Report and its July 21, 2011 adoption of
the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions. See CARB Resolution No. 09-34 and CARB
Resolution No. 11-22.
    The SIP submittals include proof of publication for notices of
District and CARB public hearings, as evidence that all hearings were
properly noticed. We find, therefore, that each of the five submittals
that comprise the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP meets the procedural
requirements for public notice and hearing in CAA sections 110(a) and
110(l).
    CAA section 110(k)(1)(B) requires EPA to determine whether a SIP
submittal is complete within 60 days of receipt. This section also
provides that any plan submittal that EPA has not affirmatively
determined to be complete or incomplete will be deemed complete by
operation of law six months after the date of submittal. EPA's SIP
completeness criteria are found in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix V.
    The November 16, 2007 submittal of the 2007 Ozone Plan and the
April 24, 2009 submittal revising the Plan became complete by operation
of law on May 15, 2008 and October 24, 2009, respectively. The November
16, 2007 submittal of the 2007 State Strategy and the August 12, 2009
submittal of the 2009 revisions to the Strategy became complete by
operation of law on May 16, 2008 and February 12, 2010, respectively.
We found the submittal of the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions complete on
August 23, 2011.\14\
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    \14\ Letter, Deborah Jordan, EPA Region 9 to James Goldstene,
CARB, August 23, 2011.

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IV. Review of the SJV 2007 Ozone Plan and the SJV Portion of the 2007
State Strategy

    We summarize our evaluation of the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP's
compliance with applicable CAA and EPA regulatory requirements below.
Our detailed evaluation can be found in the TSD for this proposal which
is available online at http://www.regulations.gov in docket number EPA-
R09-OAR-2010-0589 or from the EPA contact listed at the beginning of
this notice.

A. Emissions Inventories

1. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
    CAA section 182(a)(1) requires each state with an ozone
nonattainment area classified under subpart 2 to submit, within two
years of the area's designation as nonattainment, a ``comprehensive,
accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all sources'' of
the relevant pollutant or pollutants in accordance with guidance
provided by EPA. CAA 182(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.915. EPA has issued the
``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and
Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and
Regional Haze Regulations,'' EPA-454/R-05-001, November 2005 (``EI
Guidance'') which provides guidance on how to develop base year and
future year baseline emissions inventories for 8-hour ozone,
PM2.5, and regional haze SIPs. For areas that were initially
designated nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone standard in 2004, EPA
recommends using calendar year 2002 as the base year for the inventory
required by CAA section 182(a)(1). EI Guidance, p. 8.
    Emissions inventories for ozone should include emissions of VOC,
NOX, and carbon monoxide (CO) and represent an average
summer week day during the ozone season. EI Guidance, pp. 14 and 17.
States should include documentation in their submittals explaining how
the emissions data were calculated. 70 FR at 71664 and EI Guidance, p.
40. In estimating mobile source emissions, states should use the latest
emissions models and planning assumptions available at the time the SIP
is developed. 68 FR at 32854 and 70 FR 71666.
2. Emissions Inventories in the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP
    The base year and future year baseline inventories for
NOX and VOC for the SJV ozone nonattainment area together
with additional documentation for the inventories are found in Appendix
B of the 2007 Ozone Plan and Appendices A and F of the 2007 State
Strategy.15, 16 These inventories represent average summer
day (ozone season) emissions. An inventory is provided for the base
year of 2002 and projected baseline inventories are provided for the
RFP milestone years of 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020; and the
attainment year of 2023. The baseline inventories include reductions
from federal, State, and District measures adopted prior to 2007. See
2007 State Strategy, Appendix A, p. 1. All inventories include
emissions from point, area, on-road, and non-road sources. The 2002
inventory was projected to 2005 and future years using CARB's
California Emissions Forecasting System (CEFSv 1.06). Both base year
and projected baseline inventories use the most current version of
California's mobile source emissions model, EMFAC2007, for estimating
on-road motor vehicle emissions. EPA has approved this model for use in
SIPs and transportation conformity analyses. 73 FR 3464 (January 18,
2008). See 2007 Ozone Plan, p. B-1.
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    \15\ By ``future year baseline inventories'' or ``projected
baseline inventories,'' we mean projected emissions inventories for
future years that account for, among other things, the ongoing
effects of economic growth and adopted emissions control
requirements.
    \16\ Inventories for CO and non-anthropogenic sources (that is,
biogenic or natural sources) were developed for the air quality
modeling and can be found at http://www.arb.ca.gov/eos/SIP_Modeling/.
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    As part of its 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, CARB submitted revised
base year and future year baseline inventories for the SJV. See Table 1
below. These revised inventories incorporate improved activity data
and/or emissions factors for diesel trucks and buses and off-road
equipment that were developed as part of CARB's December 2010
rulemakings amending its In-Use On-Road Truck and Bus Rule and In-Use
Off-Road Equipment Rule. They also reflect revisions to the methodology
for estimating NOX emissions from natural-gas fueled
industrial equipment as well as other improvements to the stationary
source inventories made by the District in the period between adoption
of the 2007 Ozone Plan and the initial draft of the 2008
PM2.5 Plan. See Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan, Appendix
B, December 2007. Collectively, these revisions reduce the total
estimated 2002 base year NOX and VOC inventories by
approximately 12 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. 2011 Ozone SIP
Revisions, p. B-9. For a more detailed discussion of these inventory
changes, see TSD, section II.A.
    The future year baseline inventories were also revised to reflect
the effects of the 2007-2009 economic recession, which has
significantly reduced activity levels in and associated emissions from
the State's construction and goods movement sectors. CARB estimates
economic growth rates will return to normal levels by the 2017-2018
time period. 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, Appendix B. As a result,
projected emission levels from these categories in the years up to
2017-2018 are now lower than were originally projected in the 2007
Ozone Plan and 2007 State Strategy as submitted in November 2007. These
recession-related decreases in emissions do not in themselves affect
the Plan's emissions inventories for the modeling validation years
(1999/2000), the base year (2002), or future years (2020 and 2023) and
thus do not change the carrying capacity estimates in the Plan (i.e.,
they do not in themselves affect the target level of overall emissions
reductions needed to demonstrate attainment), nor do they alter the
2002 base year inventory which provides the starting point for the RFP
demonstration. The principal effect of the recession-related decreases
in projected emissions estimates is to reduce the amount of reductions
needed from the SIP's control strategy to demonstrate RFP in the years
prior to 2018.

     Table 1--San Joaquin Valley Revised Base Year and Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Inventory Summary
                                              [tons per summer day]
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                                                                NOX                             VOC
          Emissions inventory category           ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       2002            2023            2002            2023
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Stationary and Area Sources.....................             101              53             276             244
On-road Mobile Sources..........................             312              69             110              37

Off-road Mobile Sources.........................             152              73              71              57
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    Total.......................................             565             195             457             339
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Source: 2011 8-Hour Ozone SIP Revision, Appendix B, p. B-3.

    Note: 2023 emissions levels reflect control adopted through 2011.
3. Proposed Action on the Emissions Inventories
    We have reviewed the 2002 base year emissions inventory in the SJV
2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP and the inventory methodologies used by the
District and CARB and have determined that the inventory was developed
consistent with CAA requirements as reflected in the 8-hour ozone
implementation rule and EPA's guidance. The revised 2002 base year
inventory is comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual
emissions of 8-hour ozone precursors in the San Joaquin Valley
nonattainment area. We therefore propose to approve the base year
inventory as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(1) and
EPA's 8-hour ozone implementation rule. We provide more detail on our
review of the inventories in section II.A. of the TSD for this
proposal.

B. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control
Strategy

1. Requirements for RACM and Control Strategies
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan ``provide
for the implementation of all reasonably available control measures as
expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology),
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air
quality standards.'' The 8-hour ozone implementation rule requires that
for each nonattainment area that is required to submit an attainment
demonstration, the state must also submit concurrently a SIP revision
demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM necessary to demonstrate
attainment as expeditiously as practicable and to meet any RFP
requirements. 40 CFR 51.912(d).
    EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM
requirement in the General Preamble at 13560 \17\ and in a memorandum
entitled ``Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control Measure
Requirement and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone
Nonattainment Areas,'' John Seitz, Director, OAQPS to Regional Air
Directors, November 30, 1999 (Seitz memo). In summary, EPA guidance
provides that, to address the requirement to adopt all RACM, states
should consider all potentially reasonable control measures for source
categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether they are
reasonably available for implementation in that area and whether they
would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the area's
attainment date by one year or more. See Seitz memo and General
Preamble at 13560.\18\ Any measures that are necessary to meet these
requirements that are not already either federally promulgated, part of
the state's SIP, or otherwise creditable in SIPs must be submitted in
enforceable form as part of a state's attainment plan for the area.\19\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \17\ The ``General Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,'' published at 57 FR 13498 on
April 16, 1992, describes EPA's preliminary view on how we would
interpret various SIP planning provisions in title I of the CAA as
amended in 1990, including those planning provisions applicable to
the 1-hour ozone standard. EPA continues to rely on certain guidance
in the General Preamble to implement the 8-hour ozone standard under
title I.
    \18\ See also ``State Implementation Plans; General Preamble for
Proposed Rulemaking on Approval of Plan Revisions for Nonattainment
Areas,'' 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979) and Memorandum dated December
14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, ``Additional Submission on RACM From States
With Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
    \19\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as moderate or
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of RACT
for all major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for
which EPA has issued a Control Techniques Guideline (CTG). CAA
section 182(f) requires that RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply
to major stationary sources of NOX. In extreme areas, a
major source is a stationary source that emits or has the potential
to emit at least 10 tons of VOC or NOX per year. CAA
sections 182(e) and (f). Under the 8-hour ozone implementation rule,
states were required to submit SIP revisions meeting the RACT
requirements of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 27
months after designation for the 8-hour ozone standard (September
15, 2006 for areas designated in April 2004) and to implement the
required RACT measures no later than 30 months after that submittal
deadline. See 40 CFR 51.912(a). California submitted the CAA section
182 RACT SIP for SJV in January 2007 and a revised RACT SIP in June
2009. EPA proposed to partially approve and partially disapprove
that 2009 SJV RACT SIP on August 31, 2011. See Partial Approval and
Partial Disapproval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California;
San Joaquin Valley; Reasonably Available Control Technology for
Ozone; Proposed rule, signed August 31, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CAA section 172(c)(6) requires nonattainment plans to ``include
enforceable emission limitations, and such other control measures,
means or techniques (including economic incentives such as fees,
marketable permits, and auctions of emission rights), as well as
schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or
appropriate to provide for attainment of such standard in such area by
the applicable attainment date * * * .'' See also CAA section
110(a)(2)(A). The ozone implementation rule requires that all control
measures needed for attainment be implemented no later than the
beginning of the attainment year ozone season. 40 CFR 51.908(d). The
attainment year ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately
preceding a nonattainment area's attainment date. 40 CFR 51.900(g).
2. RACM Demonstration and the Control Strategy in the SJV 2007 8-Hour
Ozone SIP
    For the 2007 Ozone Plan and the 2007 State Strategy, the District,
CARB, and the local agencies (through the SJV's eight metropolitan
planning organizations (MPO)) each undertook a process to identify and
evaluate potential reasonably available control measures that could
contribute to expeditious attainment of the 8-hour ozone standards in
the SJV. We describe each agency's efforts below. We also discuss
CARB's and the District's adopted control strategies including the
provisions for the development of new

and improved technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5).
a. SJVUAPCD's RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    The District's RACM analysis, which focuses on stationary and area
source controls, is described in Chapter 6 and Appendix I of the 2007
Ozone Plan. To identify potential RACM, the District reviewed measures
from a number of sources including measures in other nonattainment
areas' plans and measures suggested by the public during development of
the Plan. 2007 Ozone Plan, pp. 6-2 to 6-3. The identified potential
measures, as well as existing District measures, are described by
emissions inventory category in Appendix I of the Plan. From the set of
identified potential controls, the District selected measures for
adoption and implementation based on the technological and economic
feasibility of emissions controls, the potential magnitude and timing
of emissions reductions, cost effectiveness, and other acceptable
criteria for determining RACM. 2007 Ozone Plan, p. 6-3.
    After completing its RACM analysis for stationary and area sources
under its jurisdiction, the District developed its ``Stationary Source
Regulatory Implementation Schedule'' (2007 Ozone Plan, Table 6-1),
which gives the schedule for regulatory adoption and implementation of
the measures determined to be feasible. The District also identified a
number of source categories for which feasibility studies would be
undertaken to refine the inventory and evaluate potential controls.
These categories and the schedule for studying them are listed in Table
6-2 of the 2007 Ozone Plan.
    In the five years prior to the adoption of the 2007 Ozone Plan, the
District developed and implemented comprehensive plans to address
attainment of the PM10 standards (2003 PM10 Plan,
approved 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004)) and the 1-hour ozone standards
(2004 Extreme Ozone Attainment Plan, approved 75 FR 10420 (March 8,
2010)). These plans have resulted in the adoption by the District of
many new rules and revisions to existing rules for stationary and area
sources. For the most part, the District's current rules are equivalent
to or more stringent than those developed by other air districts. In
addition to these stationary and area source measures, the District has
also adopted an indirect source review rule, Rule 9510, to address
increased indirect emissions from new industrial, commercial and
residential developments. See SJVUAPCD Rule 9510 ``Indirect Source
Review,'' adopted December 15, 2005, approved 76 FR 26609 (May 9,
2011). The District also operates incentive grant programs to
accelerate turnover of existing stationary and mobile engines to
cleaner units. See 2007 Ozone Plan, chapters 7 and 8 and SJV Ozone Mid-
Course Review, Section 5 and 6.\20\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ SJVAPCD, 2010 Ozone Mid-Course Review, May 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the 2007 Ozone Plan, the District identified and committed to
adopt and implement 19 new control measures for NOX and VOC
and to achieve certain aggregate emissions reductions of NOX
and VOC. See 2007 Ozone Plan, Table 6-1 (revised December 18, 2008). In
Table 2 below, we list these measures, which mostly involve
strengthening existing District rules, their adoption dates and current
SIP approval status. As can be seen from Table 2, the District has
completed action on all of its rule adoption commitments. Table 6-1 in
the Plan shows estimated emissions reductions from each rule for
milestone years from 2008 to 2020, 2012, and the attainment year of
2023. The District's commitment, however, is only to the aggregate
emissions reductions of NOX and VOC in each year. 2007 Ozone
Plan, p. 6-5 and SJVUAPCD Governing Board Resolution 07-04-11a, p. 6.
We show these commitments in Table 3 below. Table 4 gives the total
estimate of SIP-creditable reductions achieved by the District to date.

                          Table 2--San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District 2007 Ozone Plan Specific Rule Commitments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                Adoption date
       Measure No. & description         District rule ------------------------------------------------------------------------        SIP status
                                              No.                   Anticipated                           Actual
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S-GOV-1 Composting Biosolids..........            4565  1st Q--2007.......................  March 2007........................  Proposed: August 31,
                                                                                2011 (signature date).
S-AGR-1 Open Burning (Phase IV).......            4103  2nd Q--2010.......................  April 2010........................  Proposed:76 FR 40660
                                                                                (July 11, 2011).
S-SOL-11 Solvents:
    Organic Solvents..................            4661  3rd Q--2007.......................  September 2007....................  75 FR 24406 (May 5,
                                                                                2010).
    Organic Solvent Degreasing........            4662                                      September 2007....................  74 FR 37948 (July 30,
                                                                                2009).
    Organic Solvent Cleaning..........            4663                                      September 2007....................  74 FR 37948 (July 30,
                                                                                2009).
S-COM-5 Stationary Gas Turbines.......            4703  3rd Q--2007.......................  September 2007....................  74 FR 53888 (October 21,
                                                                                2009).
S-IND-24 Soil Decontamination.........            4651  3rd Q--2007.......................  September 2007....................  74 FR 52894 (October 15,
                                                                                2009).
S-IND-6 Polystyrene Foam..............            4682  3rd Q--2007.......................  September 2007....................  76 FR 41745 (July 15,
                                                                                2011).
S-PET-1&2 Gasoline Storage & Transfer.            4623  4th Q--2007.......................  December 2007.....................  74 FR 56120 (October 30,
                                                  4624                                                                           2009).
S-PET-3 Aviation Fuel Storage.........  ..............  3rd Q--2007.......................  Found not feasible................  Found infeasible.
S-COM-1 Large Boilers.................            4306  3rd Q--2008.......................  October 2008......................  75 FR 1715 (January 13,
                                                  4320                                                                           2010)
                                                                                76 FR 16696 (March 25,
                                                                                2011).
S-COM-2 Boilers, Steam Generators and             4307  3rd Q--2008.......................  October 2008......................  75 FR 1715 (January 13,
 Process Heaters (2 to 5 MMBtu/hr).                                                                                2010).
S-COM-7 Glass Melting Furnaces\1\.....            4354  3rd Q--2008.......................  October 2008......................  76 FR 53640 (August 29,
                                                                                2011).
S-SOL-20 Graphic Arts.................            4607  4th Q--2008.......................  December 2008.....................  74 FR 52894 (October 15,
                                                                                2009).
S-COM-9 Residential Water Heaters.....            4902  1st Q--2009.......................  March 2009........................  75 FR 24408 (May 5,
                                                                                2010).
S-GOV-5 Composting Green Waste........            4566  4th Q 0 2010......................  August 2011.......................  Rule adopted.
S-IND-21 Flares.......................            4311  2nd Q--2009.......................  June 2009.........................  Proposed: 76 FR 52623
                                                                                (August 8, 2011).
S-IND-14 Brandy and Wine Aging........            4695  3rd Q--2009.......................  September 2009....................  76 FR 47076 (August 4,
                                                                                2011).

S-SOL-1 Architectural Coatings........            4601  4th Q--2009.......................  December 2009.....................  Proposed: 76 FR 35167
                                                                                (June 16, 2011).
S-AGR-2 Confined Animal Facilities....            4570  2nd Q--2010.......................  October 2010......................  Proposed: August 31,
                                                                                2011 (signature date).
S-SOL-6 Adhesives.....................            4653  3rd Q--2010.......................  September 2010....................  Rule submitted.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: List of measures and anticipated adoption dates: 2007 Ozone Plan, Table 6-1, revised December 18, 2009.

                  Table 3--San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District 2007 Ozone Plan Aggregate Emissions Reductions Commitments
                                                                  [Tons per summer day]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               2011            2012            2014            2017            2020            2023
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX.....................................................             4.4             6.0             6.3             7.8             8.0             8.2
VOC.....................................................            15.3            26.5            40.5            42.2            44.5            46.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2007 Ozone Plan, Table 6-1, revised December 18, 2008.

         Table 4--San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District 2007 Ozone Plan Aggregate Creditable Emissions Reductions From Adopted Rules
                                                                  (Tons per summer day)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               2011            2012            2014            2017            2020            2023
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX.....................................................             3.6             6.2            10.3            11.1            12.0            12.6
VOC.....................................................            34.3            37.7            39.8            41.3            43.1            44.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: TSD, Table D-5.

    The District also included in its Plan programs for incentive
grants and to develop innovative strategies such as green contracting
and energy conservation. These are discussed below in section II.B.2.d.
b. The Local Jurisdictions' RACM Analysis
    The local jurisdictions' RACM analysis was conducted by the SJV's
eight MPOs.\21\ This analysis focused on potential NOX
emissions reductions from transportation control measures (TCM). TCMs
are, in general, measures designed to reduce emissions from on-road
motor vehicles through reductions in vehicle miles traveled or traffic
congestion. The analysis is summarized in Chapter 9 of the 2007 Ozone
Plan and described in detail in Appendix C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \21\ These eight MPOs represent the eight counties in the San
Joaquin Valley nonattainment area: The San Joaquin Council of
Governments, the Stanislaus Council of Governments, the Merced
County Association of Governments, the Madera County Transportation
Commission, the Council of Fresno County Governments, Kings County
Association of Governments, the Tulare County Association of
Governments and the Kern Council of Governments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the 2007 Ozone Plan, the SJV MPOs evaluated RACM using a three-
step process of developing a list of potential reasonably available
local controls, estimating the maximum potential emissions reductions
from the identified measures, and then comparing these reductions
against the level of reductions needed to advance attainment of the 8-
hour ozone standard in the SJV. Through this process, the MPOs
determined that there were no additional local RACM for NOX,
beyond those measures already adopted, that could advance attainment of
the 8-hour ozone standard in the SJV. 2007 Ozone Plan, p. 9-7.
c. CARB's RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer
products.
    Given the need for significant emissions reductions from mobile and
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, the
State of California has been a leader in the development of stringent
control measures for on-road and off-road mobile sources and the fuels
that power them. California has unique authority under CAA section 209
(subject to a waiver by EPA) to adopt and implement new emission
standards for many categories of on-road vehicles and engines and new
and in-use off-road vehicles and engines.
    According to the 2007 State Strategy, California's new vehicle
emissions standards have reduced new car emissions by 99 percent and
new truck emissions by 90 percent from uncontrolled levels, and new
lawn and garden equipment, recreational vehicles and boats, and other
off-road sources are 80-98 percent cleaner than their uncontrolled
counterparts. 2007 State Strategy, p. 37. In addition to its new
vehicle and engine standards, the State has adopted many measures that
focus on achieving reductions from in-use mobile sources that include
more stringent inspection and maintenance requirements in California's
Smog Check program, truck and bus idling restrictions, and various
incentive programs. Appendix A of the TSD includes a list of all
measures adopted by CARB between 1990 and the beginning of 2007. These
measures, reductions from which are reflected in the Plan's baseline
inventories, fall into two categories: Measures that are subject to a
waiver of Federal pre-emption under CAA section 209 (section 209

waiver measures or waiver measures) and those for which the State is
not required to obtain a waiver (non-waiver measures). Emissions
reductions from waiver measures are fully creditable in attainment and
RFP demonstrations and may be used to meet other CAA requirements, such
as contingency measures. See TSD, section II.D.3.a.i. and EPA's
proposed and final approval of the SJV 1-Hour Ozone Plan at 74 FR
33933, 33938 (July 14, 2009) and 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010).
Generally, the State's baseline non-waiver measures have been approved
by EPA into the SIP and are fully creditable for meeting CAA
requirements. See TSD, Appendix A.
    CARB developed its proposed 2007 State Strategy after an extensive
public consultation process to identify potential measures.\22\ Through
this process, CARB identified and has committed to develop 15 new
defined measures. These measures focus on cleaning up the in-use fleet
as well as increasing the stringency of emissions standards for a
number of engine categories, fuels, and consumer products. They build
on CARB's already extensive existing program described above, which
addresses emissions from all types of mobile sources through both
regulations and incentive programs. See TSD, Appendix A. Table 5 below
lists the defined measures in the 2007 State Strategy that are
applicable to the SJV and their current adoption and approval status.
Table 6 provides the CARB's current estimates of the emissions
reductions in the SJV from these measures, which are part of the
State's commitment to achieve the tonnage of reductions needed for
attainment. Table 7 provides the estimates of the emissions reductions
that are currently SIP creditable.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \22\ This process is described in the 2007 Ozone Plan at p. 9-
10. More information on this public process including presentations
from the workshops and symposium that proceeded adoption of the 2007
State Strategy can be found at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm.

  Table 5--2007 State Strategy Defined Measures Applicable to the SJV,
              Schedule for Consideration and Current Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Expected action
        State measures                 year            Current status
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements.......          2007-2009  Elements approved 75
                                                    FR 38023 (July 1,
                                                    2010).\23\
Expanded Vehicle Retirement                  2007  Adopted by CARB, June
 (AB 118).                                          2009; by BAR,
                                                    September 2010.
Modification to Reformulated                 2007  Approved, 75 FR 26653
 Gasoline Program.                                  (May 12, 2010).
Cleaner In-Use Heavy Duty        2007, 2008, 2010  Proposed for
 Trucks.                                            approval: 76 FR
                                                    40652 (July 11,
                                                    2011).
Accelerated Introduction of                  2008  Prop 1B bond funds
 Cleaner Locomotives.                               awarded to upgrade
                                                    line-haul locomotive
                                                    engines not already
                                                    accounted for by
                                                    enforceable
                                                    agreements with the
                                                    railroads. Those
                                                    cleaner line-hauls
                                                    will begin operation
                                                    by 2012.
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road                2007, 2010  Waiver decision
 Engines.                                           pending.
Cleaner In-Use Agricultural                  2013  Incentive program in
 Equipment.                                         progress. Additional
                                                    action expected
                                                    2013.
New Emissions Standards for                  2013  Action expected 2013.
 Recreational Boats.
Expanded Off-Road Recreational               2013  Action expected 2013.
 Vehicle Emissions Standards.
Enhanced Vapor Recovery for                  2008  Adopted June 2007.
 Above Ground Storage Tanks.                        Requirements
                                                    implemented through
                                                    District Rule 4621.
Additional Evaporative                       2013  Action expected 2013.
 Emissions Standards.
Consumer Products Program (I &   2008, 2009, 2011  Approved, 74 FR 57074
 II).                                               (November 4, 2009)
                                                    and 76 FR 27613 (May
                                                    12, 2011).
Pesticide Regulation (DPR)....         2008, 2009  Submitted October
                                                    2009, revisions
                                                    submitted August
                                                    2011.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p.4, 2011 Progress Report,
  Table 1, and 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, Appendix A-3. Additional
  information from http://www.ca.arb.gov.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ California Assembly Bill 2289, passed in 2010, requires the
Bureau of Automotive Repair to direct older vehicles to high
performing auto technicians and test stations for inspection and
certification effective 2013. Reductions shown for the SmogCheck
program in the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions do not include reductions
from AB 2289 improvements. 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, Appendix C.

 Table 6--Expected Emissions Reductions From Defined Measures in the San
                             Joaquin Valley
                       [Tons per summer day 2023]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       State measure                         NOX    VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements (BAR).............................    1.0    3.0
Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks..........................   16.9    0.9
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment.........................    1.9    0.2
Consumer Products Program.................................     --    5.0
Pesticides: DPR Regulation................................     --    1.2
                                                           -------------
  Totals..................................................   19.8   10.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions Supplement, Attachment 1.

Table 7--Currently Creditable Emissions Reductions From Defined Measures
                        in the San Joaquin Valley
                       [Tons per summer day 2023]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       State measure                         NOX    VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements (BAR).............................    1.0    3.0
Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks..........................   16.9    0.9
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment.........................    1.9    0.2
Consumer Products Program.................................     --    5.0
                                                           -------------

  Totals..................................................   19.8    9.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions Supplement, p. attachment 1.

    The 2007 State Strategy also includes an enforceable commitment to
achieve aggregate emissions reductions of 46 tpd NOX and 25
tpd VOC in the SJV by the attainment year of 2023 that are sufficient,
in combination with existing SIP-creditable measures, the District's
commitments, and commitments for reductions under the CAA section
182(e)(5) new technologies provision, to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard in the San Joaquin Valley by the applicable attainment date of
June 15, 2024. CARB also made enforceable commitments to achieve
aggregate emissions reductions in the SJV in the RFP milestone years of
2014, 2017, and 2020. See 2007 State Strategy, p. 63; CARB Resolution
07-28, Attachment B, p. 6; and 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p.
21. See Table 8 below. The nature of these commitments is described in
the State Strategy as follows:

    The total emission reductions from the new measures necessary to
attain the federal standards are an enforceable State commitment in
the SIP. While the proposed State Strategy includes estimates of the
emission reductions from each of the individual new measures, it is
important to note that the commitment of the State Strategy is to
achieve the total emission reductions necessary to attain the
federal standards, which would be the aggregate of all existing and
proposed new measures combined. Therefore, if a particular measure
does not get its expected emission reductions, the State still
commits to achieving the total aggregate emission reductions,
whether this is realized through additional reductions from the new
measures or from alternative control measures or incentive programs.
If actual emission decreases occur in any air basin for which
emission reduction commitments have been made that are greater than
the projected emissions reductions from the adopted measures in the
State Strategy, the actual emission decreases may be counted toward
meeting ARB's total emission reduction commitments.

CARB Resolution 07-28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 3.

                                          Table 8--CARB Commitments to Specific Aggregate Emissions Reductions
                                                                  [Tons per summer day]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                2023 CAA
                                                                      2014              2017              2020              2023            182(e)(5)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC...........................................................                23              -\1\                24                25              -\1\
NOX...........................................................                76             88-93                56                46                81
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 23.
\1\ No commitment to VOC reductions in 2017 or to VOC reductions pursuant to CAA 182(e)(5) advanced technologies provision.

d. Section 182(e)(5) New or Improved Technologies Provisions
    For ozone nonattainment areas classified as extreme, the CAA
recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely to a
certain extent on new or evolving technologies, given the relatively
long time between developing the initial plan and attaining the
standard and the degree of emissions reductions needed to attain. To
address these needs, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes EPA to approve
provisions in an extreme area plan which ``anticipate development of
new control techniques or improvement of existing control
technologies,'' and to approve an attainment demonstration based on
such provisions, if the State demonstrates that: (1) Such provisions
are not necessary to achieve the incremental emission reductions
required during the first 10 years after November 15, 1990; \24\ and
(2) the State has submitted enforceable commitments to develop and
adopt contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated
technologies do not achieve the planned reductions. CAA 182(e)(5). The
State must submit these contingency measures to EPA no later than 3
years before proposed implementation of these long-term measures, and
the contingency measures must be ``adequate to produce emissions
reductions sufficient, in conjunction with other approved plan
provisions, to achieve the periodic emissions reductions required by
[CAA sections 182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and attainment by the applicable
dates.'' Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ Consistent with provisions in the 8-hour ozone
implementation rule at 40 CFR part 51, subpart X, we interpret this
10-year timeframe to run from the effective date of designation for
the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, that is, June 15, 2004.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The General Preamble further provides that the new technology
measures contemplated by section 182(e)(5) may include those that
anticipate future technological developments as well as those that
require complex analyses, decision making and coordination among a
number of government agencies. See General Preamble at 13524. An
attainment demonstration that relies on long-term new technology
measures under section 182(e)(5) must identify any such measures and
contain a schedule outlining the steps leading to final development and
adoption of the measures. Id. The General Preamble also provides that
EPA will set a schedule for implementing contingency measures upon
making a finding of failure to meet a milestone, i.e., to achieve the
periodic emissions reductions required by CAA sections 182(b)(1) or
(c)(2) or to attain by the applicable dates. Id.
    CARB and the District have demonstrated a clear need for emissions
reduction from new control technologies or improvement of existing
technologies to reduce air pollution in the SJV. Adopted control
measures and enforceable commitments discussed above provide the
majority, but not all, of the emissions reductions needed to attain the
1997 8-hour ozone standards in the SJV. See 2007 State Strategy, p. 54.
For the balance of the reductions needed to attain by June 15, 2024,
the 2007 State Strategy and 2007 Ozone Plan rely on CARB's commitments
to achieve additional reductions of 81 tpd NOX by 2023 from
new and improved technologies. See 2009 State Strategy Status Report,
p. 20. The new technology provisions (also called ``long-term
measures'') described in the 2007 State Strategy and 2007 Ozone Plan
are not relied on to demonstrate RFP in any year and are accompanied by
an enforceable commitment by the State to adopt and submit contingency
measures no later than 3 years before implementation, as required by
CAA section 182(e)(5).
    CARB and the California districts have a longstanding history of
successfully adopting and implementing

technology-advancing regulations and innovative control measures. They
have worked closely with research scientists and the regulated industry
to develop regulations that are stringent enough to compel technology
development yet flexible enough to encourage industry innovations. CARB
has provided a list of potential long-term control measures which
include reduced deterioration of emission control equipment in
passenger vehicles, tighter engine emission standards, cleaner ground
support equipment at airports, and prioritizing federal transportation
funding to support air quality goals. See pp. 56-57 of the 2007 State
Strategy. The District has also provided a list of potential advanced
control technologies and innovative approaches that could achieve the
long-term reductions. See 2007 Ozone Plan, pp. 11-5 to 11-10, and
Chapters 7 and 8. CARB updated its list of potential long-term measures
in both the 2009 State Strategy Status Report and the 2011 Ozone SIP
Revisions. See 2009 State Strategy Status Report, pp. 25-27 and 2011
Ozone SIP Revisions, Appendix A, pp. A-8 to A-12.
    To implement the long-term strategy, CARB has committed to a
process that will ensure that the long-term measures and reductions are
achieved by the attainment year. CARB is coordinating a government,
private and public effort to establish emissions reductions goals for
critical mobile and stationary source categories. The effort includes
periodic assessment of technology advancement opportunities and updates
to the Board and the public regarding new emission control
opportunities and progress in achieving the long-term measure
reductions. CARB's commitment for implementing the long-term strategy
also includes (a) Sharing results through periodic briefings to the
Board, workshops, conferences, symposia, Web site postings and other
means, (b) working to secure resources for continuing research and
development of new technologies, and (c) developing schedules for
moving from research to implementation. Id.
    An initial step in the long-term strategy was the signing of a
Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between the U.S. EPA, CARB and the South
Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Districts to commit to developing and
testing new sustainable technologies to accelerate progress in meeting
air quality goals. The goal of the MOA is to help align agency research
resources to evaluate innovative technologies and assess new monitoring
equipment to better measure mobile and stationary source emissions. The
MOA agencies have also established a Clean Air Technology Initiative to
help bring together the necessary participants (e.g., scientists,
engineers, analysts and agency specialists) to achieve the goals of the
MOA. 2009 State Strategy Status Report, pp. 25-27. For the SJV, the
focus is on the area that straddles Kern and Tulare counties. This
area, which frequently exceeds health-based air standards, has high
levels of mobile source emissions from the goods movement corridors of
Highway 99 and Interstate 5 as well as stationary source emissions from
a variety of energy production facilities, farms, and agricultural
processing operations. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, p. A-9. For a
summary of San Joaquin Valley funded projects, see http://epa.gov/region9/cleantech/projects.html.
    Other State programs that may achieve emissions reductions to help
meet CARB's 182(e)(5) commitment include: potential co-benefits from
California's climate change programs where State legislation (Assembly
Bill 32--Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32)) aims to reduce
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) in 2020 to 1990 levels or by about 30 percent;
California's Air Quality Improvement Program (AQIP), an incentive
program that supports the deployment of hybrid and zero-emission
vehicles and other advanced technologies; and California's annual
research program, which identifies projects and provides funding to
help provide timely scientific and technical information needed for air
quality control programs.
    In addition, the District is pursuing innovative strategies. Its
``Fast Track'' strategy includes opportunities to reduce emissions from
heavy-duty trucks by shifting goods movement to lower-emission
alternatives, such as short-sea shipping. In 2010, the U.S. Department
of Transportation awarded the Ports of Stockton, West Sacramento, and
Oakland with a $30 million grant to move goods between Oakland and the
two inland ports over the San Joaquin-Sacramento Delta. The District
has also adopted a Technology Advancement Program (TAP) which is its
strategic approach to encouraging innovation and development of new
emission reduction technologies. The TAP will consist of an ongoing
review of new technology concepts, interagency partnerships, funding
for technology advancement programs, and collaborations to build and
expand local capacity for research and development in the SJV. For more
information about the SJV TAP, see http://www.valleyair.org/Grant_Programs/TAP/tap_idx.htm. In addition to the TAP, The District has
established a Regional Energy Efficiency Strategy to support technology
development and deployment in the Valley. The Regional Energy
Efficiency Program lays out goals and measures that will guide the
District's actions to reduce emissions caused by electricity and
natural gas consumption in residential, industrial, and institutional
settings. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, pp. A-11 to A-12.
    Along with its commitment to the process discussed above, CARB has
committed to submit an 8-hour ozone SIP revision by 2020 that will: (1)
Reflect modifications to the 2023 emission reduction target based on
updated science and (2) identify additional strategies and implementing
agencies needed to achieve the needed reductions by 2023. See 2011
Ozone SIP Revisions, p. A-8. The District has also committed to submit
by late 2019 SIP revisions containing the control measures that are
necessary to achieve the long-term measure reductions by the attainment
year and to make any other needed revisions to the SIP. See SJVUAPCD
Governing Board Resolution No. 07-04-11a p. 6.
    CARB's 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions update and reaffirm both the
``long-term strategy commitment to identify and implement advanced
technologies to reduce ozone-forming emissions in the State Strategy''
and the State's enforceable commitment ``to develop, adopt, and submit
contingency measures by 2020 if advanced technology measures do not
achieve planned reductions.'' See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011.
Finally, CARB has committed to meet annually with EPA to discuss
strategies to maximize the clean air benefits of emerging advanced
technologies and to provide annual summaries of strategies and
activities. See letter, James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, August 29,
2011.
3. Proposed Actions on the RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    As described above, the District evaluated a range of potentially
available measures for inclusion in its 2007 Ozone Plan and committed
to adopt those it found to be reasonably available for implementation
in the SJV. The process and the criteria the District used to select
certain measures and reject others are consistent with EPA's RACM
guidance. We also describe above the measure evaluation processes
undertaken by the SJV MPOs and the State. Their processes are also
consistent with EPA's RACM guidance.

See, e.g., General Preamble at 13560 and Seitz memo.
    Based on our review of these RACM analyses and the District's and
California's adopted rules, as well as their commitments to adopt and
implement additional controls, we propose to find that there are, at
this time, no additional reasonably available control measures that
would advance attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the SJV.
Therefore, we propose to find that the SJV 2007 Ozone Plan, together
with the 2007 State Strategy, provides for the implementation of all
RACM as required by CAA section 172(c)(1).
    Because the SJV is designated and classified as extreme
nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS, CAA sections 182(b)(2)
and 182(f) require the implementation of RACT for all major sources of
VOC or NOX and all VOC sources covered by an EPA-issued CTG
in this area. California submitted the District's revised 8-hour ozone
RACT SIP (adopted April 16, 2009) on June 18, 2009. We have recently
proposed to partially approve and partially disapprove this RACT SIP,
based on our proposal to determine that the RACT SIP does not
adequately demonstrate compliance with section 182 RACT requirements
for ten source categories. See Partial Approval and Partial Disapproval
of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; San Joaquin Valley;
Reasonably Available Control Technology for Ozone; Proposed rule,
signed August 31, 2011.
    Under EPA's longstanding policy, a SIP meets the RACM requirement
in CAA section 172(c)(1) if it includes all reasonably available
measures that individually or in combination with other such reasonably
available measures can advance attainment of the relevant standard by
one year or more. Based on our evaluation of the potential emission
reductions from the missing section 182 RACT controls, we propose to
determine that the additional reductions from these rules in
combination with other potential RACM would not result in earlier
attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the SJV. See TSD,
section II.C.3.
    We propose to approve the SJVUAPCD's commitments to achieve
specific aggregate emissions reductions of NOX and VOC by
specific years as given in Table 6-2 of the 2007 Ozone Plan and shown
in Table 3 above. We are not proposing to act on SJVAPCD's commitments
to adopt and implement specific control measures on the schedule
identified in Table 6-1 (as amended December 18, 2008) in the 2007
Ozone Plan because, as of August 18, 2011 with the adoption of the Rule
4655, these commitments have all been fulfilled.
    We are proposing to approve CARB's commitments to propose certain
defined measures, as given in Table B-1 in 2011 Progress Report,
Appendix B and Appendix A-7 of the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions. We are
also proposing to approve CARB's commitment to achieve the total
aggregate emissions reductions necessary to demonstrate RFP and to
attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the SJV as given in the 2009
State Strategy Status Report, p. 20 and shown in Table 8 above. See
CARB Resolution 07-28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 3.
    Finally, we are proposing to approve the CARB's and District's
long-term strategy provisions and related commitments in the SJV 2007
8-Hour Ozone SIP under the new technology provisions of CAA section
182(e)(5). This proposal is based on our proposed findings that they
satisfy the two criteria in CAA section 182(e)(5)(A) and (B). First,
the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP does not rely on any of the new
technology reductions to demonstrate RFP in any milestone year between
2008 and 2020. CARB has committed to achieve 81 tpd of NOX
reductions through new technology measures approved under section
182(e)(5) only in the attainment year (2023). We note that the amount
and relative proportion of reductions from measures scheduled for long-
term adoption under section 182(e)(5), as compared to measures already
adopted in regulatory form or scheduled for near-term adoption, should
clearly decrease in any future SIP update, and that EPA will not
approve a SIP revision that contains an increase in the amount or
relative proportion of section 182(e)(5) new technology measures
without a convincing showing in a SIP revision that the technologies
relied upon in the near-term rules have been found to be
technologically infeasible or ineffective in achieving the expected
emissions reductions.
    Second, CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to submit
adopted contingency measures to EPA by 2020 as required by CAA section
182(e)(5). See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011. These contingency
measures must be adequate to produce emissions reductions sufficient,
in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to achieve the
periodic emissions reductions required by CAA sections 182(b)(1) or
(c)(2) and to attain by the applicable dates. See CAA 182(e)(5).
Following the State's submittal of these contingency measures, EPA will
approve or disapprove the provisions in accordance with CAA section
110.

C. Attainment Demonstration

1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstrations
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires states with ozone nonattainment
areas classified as serious or above to submit plans that demonstrate
attainment of the applicable standard as expeditiously as practicable
but no later than the outside date established in the CAA.\25\ The
attainment demonstration is due within three years of the area's
designation as nonattainment (40 CFR 51.908) and should include:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ EPA's regulation at 40 CFR 51.903(a) translates the maximum
attainment periods in Table 1 of section 181, which are specifically
linked to enactment of the 1990 CAA Amendments, for purposes of
attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (1) Technical analyses to locate and identify sources of emissions
that are causing violations of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS within the
nonattainment area;
    (2) Adopted measures with schedules for implementation and other
means and techniques necessary and appropriate for attainment; and
    (3) Contingency measures required under section 172(c)(9) of the
CAA.
    See 70 FR 71612 at 71615.
    The requirements for the first two items are described in the
sections on emissions inventories and RACM/RACT above (sections IV.A.
and IV.C.) and in the sections on the air quality modeling and
attainment demonstration that follow immediately below. Requirements
for the third item are described in the section on contingency measures
(IV.F.).
2. Air Quality Modeling in the SJV 2007 Ozone Plan
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires SIPs for ozone nonattainment
areas to include a ``demonstration that the plan, as revised, will
provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable
attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on
photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined
by the Administrator, in the Administrator's discretion, to be at least
as effective.'' Air quality modeling is used to establish emissions
attainment targets, that is, the combination of emissions of ozone
precursors that the area can accommodate without exceeding the relevant
standard, and to assess whether the proposed control strategy will
result in attainment of that standard. Air quality modeling is

performed for a base year and compared to air quality monitoring data
from that year in order to evaluate model performance. Once the
performance is determined to be acceptable, future year changes to the
emissions inventory are simulated to determine the relationship between
emissions reductions and changes in ambient air quality throughout the
air basin. The procedures for modeling ozone as part of an attainment
demonstration are contained in EPA's ``Guidance on the Use of Models
and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals
for the 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS and Regional Haze''
\26\ (Guidance).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \26\ ``Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for
Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone
and PM2.5 NAAQS and Regional Haze'', EPA-454/B-07-002,
April 2007. Additional EPA modeling guidance can be found in
``Guideline on Air Quality Models'' in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix W.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The air quality modeling that underpins the SJV 2007 Ozone Plan is
described in Chapter 3 and documented in Appendix F. We provide a brief
description of the modeling and a summary of our evaluation of it
below. More detailed information about the modeling and our evaluation
are available in section II.B. of the TSD.
    CARB performed the air quality modeling for the 2007 Ozone Plan.
Significant time, money, and effort by CARB, the District, and many
others have gone into preparing the air quality modeling to support the
attainment demonstration in the 2007 Ozone Plan for the San Joaquin
Valley, including support for the multi-million dollar Central
California Ozone Study (CCOS). CCOS is a cooperative effort involving
California cities, State and local and air pollution control agencies,
federal agencies, industry groups, academics, and contractors. Field
data for CCOS were collected during the 4 months from June through
October 2000 and included five several-day intensive monitoring
periods. Data and modeling results based on the CCOS study provided a
solid foundation for the 2007 Ozone Plan.
    The Plan includes an attainment demonstration using photochemical
modeling with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions
(CAMx) model, incorporating the [California] Statewide Air Pollution
Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism, and meteorological fields
from the Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). In addition to the July 29-
August 2, 2000 episode using CCOS data, CARB modeled ambient ozone
levels during July 9-13, 1999 using routinely available meteorological
and air quality data.
    EPA recommends that States prepare modeling protocols as part of
their modeled attainment demonstrations. Guidance, p. 133. The Guidance
at pp. 133-134 describes the topics to be addressed in this modeling
protocol. A modeling protocol should detail and formalize the
procedures for conducting all phases of the modeling analysis, such as
describing the background and objectives, creating a schedule and
organizational structure, developing the input data, conducting model
performance evaluations, interpreting modeling results, describing
procedures for using the model to demonstrate whether proposed
strategies are sufficient to attain the NAAQS, and producing
documentation to be submitted for EPA Regional Office review and
approval prior to actual modeling.
    The 2007 Ozone Plan's modeling protocol is contained in Appendix C
of the CARB Staff Report \27\ in the Plan. The protocol covers all of
the topics recommended in the Guidance, including model and episode
selection, meteorological and emission data preparation, and
performance testing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \27\ ``Photochemical Modeling Protocol for Developing Strategies
to Attain the Federal 8-hour Ozone Air Quality Standard in Central
California'', California Air Resources Board, 5/22/2007, included as
Appendix C to the ``Final Draft, Staff Report: Analysis of the San
Joaquin Valley 2007 Ozone Plan'', State of California Air Resources
Board, 5/30/2007. (``Staff Report'' at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/sjv8hr/sjvozone.htm).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2007 Ozone Plan's air quality model performance is discussed in
Appendix F, including extensive statistical and graphical analysis
demonstrating adequate overall model performance. The attainment
demonstration for a given monitoring location used only those days that
satisfied a number of performance criteria. The sensitivity testing
described by CARB provides assurance that the model is adequately
simulating the physical and chemical processes leading to ozone in the
atmosphere and that the model responds in a scientifically reasonable
way to emissions changes.
    The Plan's Appendix F also provides extensive documentation on the
Relative Reduction Factors, which are the key results from the model
for use in the attainment test, and the details of their calculation.
The documentation also includes the results of modeling runs with
various combinations of VOC and NOX reductions, to
illustrate alternative control strategies and establish a ``carrying
capacity'', a combination of VOC and NOX emissions
consistent with attainment of the ozone standard. EPA proposes to
conclude that the attainment tests are adequate and consistent with EPA
guidance.
    In addition to a modeled attainment demonstration, which focuses on
locations with an air quality monitor, EPA generally requires an
unmonitored area analysis. The unmonitored area analysis uses a
combination of model output and ambient data to identify areas that
might exceed the NAAQS if monitors were located there. It ensures that
a control strategy leads to reductions in ozone in unmonitored
locations that might have baseline (and future) ambient ozone levels
exceeding the NAAQS. In order to examine unmonitored areas in all
portions of the modeling domain, EPA recommends use of interpolated
spatial fields of ambient data combined with gridded modeled outputs.
Guidance, p. 29. CARB's unmonitored area analysis \28\ uses EPA's MATS
software. Based on this analysis CARB concluded that there are no
unmonitored ozone peaks in the modeling domain that would violate the
1997 8-hour ozone standards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ ``Unmonitored Area Analysis for Ozone in the San Joaquin
Valley'', California Air Resources Board, August 12, 2011. SJV--
unmonitored--ozone.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Finally, the Plan's Appendix F concludes with ``Corroborative
Analyses/Weight Of Evidence Elements'', containing a supplemental
analyses in support of the attainment demonstration. These analyses
include ozone air quality trends, meteorologically adjusted ozone
trends, and precursor emission trends, all of which show continued
progress and support the conclusion that the attainment demonstration
is sound.
    Base on our review, EPA proposes to find that the air quality
modeling provides an adequate basis for the RACM/RACT, RFP, and
attainment demonstrations in the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP.
3. Enforceable Commitments in the Attainment Demonstration
    Section 11.2 of the 2007 Ozone Plan includes the initial attainment
demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standards in the SJV. The 2011
Ozone SIP Revisions update this demonstration to reflect changes to
future year inventories and adopted controls.
    The air quality modeling described above demonstrates that a 75
percent reduction in NOX emissions from the 2002 base year
level is necessary to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.

A 75 percent reduction from the 2002 base year level equates to an
attainment target level of 160 tpd NOX. See 2007 State
Strategy, p. 70. In the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, CARB revised the 2002
base year NOX emissions downward by 12 percent based on
improved inventory methodologies and data. See Section IV.A. above.
    Both CARB and EPA recognize that the ideal approach for evaluating
the impact of the base year inventory changes on the attainment target
would be to perform new air quality modeling. Both Agencies also
recognize the time and effort involved in such modeling for an area
that is as large and diverse as the San Joaquin Valley. To address the
need for remodeling, CARB has committed to update the SJV 2007 Ozone
Plan modeling to reflect the emissions inventory improvements and any
other new information by December 31, 2014 or by the date the SIPs are
due for the revised 8-hour ozone standard whichever comes first. See
CARB Resolution 11-22, p. 3 and 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, p. B-8.
    As part of the technical support for the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions,
CARB qualitatively evaluated the impact on the attainment target of the
revision to this base year inventory and concluded that the 160 tpd
target remains viable. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, p. B-9. The 160
tpd target represents a 72 percent reduction from the revised 2002 base
year level. CARB also recognized, however, that a reduction of up to 75
percent from the revised baseline (an attainment target level of 141
tpd) may be necessary to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the
SJV and reaffirmed its 2007 State Strategy commitment to achieve all
emissions reductions that are necessary to provide for attainment. See
CARB Resolution 11-22, p. 3.
    As EPA stated in its comment letter on the proposed 2011 Ozone SIP
Revisions,\29\ we believe that a 75 percent reduction from the base
year NOX emissions level, based on the modeling provided in
the Plan as submitted in 2007, provides the best available estimate of
the NOX reductions needed to reach attainment. The predicted
ozone concentrations from the existing modeling matched the monitored
ozone concentration from the summer 2000 episode fairly well, despite
having what we now know to be overly high emissions inputs. The model,
therefore, may be underpredicting ozone concentrations and the original
160 tpd NOX target may result in higher ozone levels than
the existing modeling predicted. Applying the 75 percent reduction from
the existing modeling against the revised base year inventory
compensates for this underprediction. This equates to a target level of
141 tpd compared to the original target level of 160 tpd.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \29\ Letter, Deborah Jordan, Director, Air Division, EPA Region
9, to James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, July 20, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In our comment letter, we recommended that CARB commit to revising
the modeling by a specific date and to commit, in the interim, to
achieving a 75 percent reduction in NOX from the revised
2002 base year levels by 2023. We noted that these recommendations are
consistent with CARB's continuing strong commitment and efforts to
achieve the emission reductions needed for attainment of the air
quality standards in the San Joaquin Valley and the rest of California.
    In response, CARB included a commitment to update the 2007 SIP
modeling for the SJV to reflect emissions inventory improvements and
reaffirmed its commitment to achieve the emissions reduction necessary
to provide for attainment. CARB has stated that these commitments are
sufficient to address the concerns we raised in our comment letter. See
2011 Ozone SIP Revisions Supplement, p. 1.
    EPA notes that NOX reductions needed to reach a target
level of 141 tpd relative to the reductions needed to meet a target
level of 160 tpd are part of CARB's long-term commitment discussed
above in section IV.B.2.d. The current estimate of the NOX
reductions needed from new technologies, based on adopted measures and
CARB's remaining commitments for reductions from defined measures, is
approximately 50 tpd. See Table 10 below. This level of reductions is
well within CARB's existing commitment to achieve 81 tpd of
NOX emissions reductions from new or improved technologies.
See 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 21.
    Table 9 below summarizes our evaluation of the attainment
demonstration taking into account emission reductions achieved to date
and other updates.

 Table 9--Summary of Reductions Needed for SJV's 8-Hour Ozone Attainment
                              Demonstration
                       [Tons per summer day, 2023]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              NOX              VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Revised 2002 baseline emissions                 565.2            457.5
 level................................
B Attainment target level.............            141              342
C Total reductions needed from 2002               424.2            115.5
 baseline levels to demonstrate
 attainment (A-B).....................
D Attainment year baseline emissions              226.6            403.3
 level................................
E Reductions from baseline measures               338.6             54.2
 and improvements to the emissions
 inventories (A-D)....................
F Reductions needed from control                   85.6             61.3
 strategy measures including, for NOX,
 reductions from new technologies (B-
 D)...................................
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: TSD, Table D-11.

    As shown in this table, the majority of the emissions reductions
that the State projects are needed for attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard in the SJV by 2024 come from baseline reductions. These
baseline reductions are from existing control measures including
numerous adopted District and State measures, which generally have been
approved by EPA either through the SIP process or the CAA section 209
waiver process. See Appendices A and B of the TSD. Also included in the
baseline are improvements to the emissions inventories, discussed above
in section IV.A. The remaining reductions needed for attainment are to
be achieved through the District's and CARB's enforceable commitments
to reduce emissions in the SJV or through their commitments to develop
and deploy new technologies pursuant to CAA section 182(e)(5). Since
the submittal of the 2007 Ozone Plan and 2007 State Strategy, the
District and CARB have adopted measures that have

significantly reduced the amount of emission reductions needed for
attainment that remain as commitments. See Table 10.

   Table 10--Reductions Needed for Attainment Remaining as Commitments
                    Based on SIP-Creditable Measures
                      [Tons per summer day in 2023]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                             NOX                VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Total reductions needed from                 423.9               115.5
 baseline and control strategy
 measures to attain (A-B)..........
B Reductions from baseline measures            338.6                54.2
 and adjustments due to emissions
 inventory improvements............
C Total reductions from approved                32.4                53.6
 measures (Tables 4 and 7).........
D Total reductions remaining as                 53.2                 7.7
 commitments and, for NOX,
 reductions from new technologies
 (A-B-C)...........................
E Reductions remaining as CARB                   4.7                 5.9
 enforceable commitments\1\........
F Reductions remaining as SJVAPCD                0                   1.8
 enforceable commitments...........
G Total reductions remaining as                 48.6
 reductions from new technologies
 (CAA section 182(e)(5))...........
H Percent of total reductions                    1.1%               6.7%
 needed remaining as commitments
 not including NOX reductions from
 new technologies..................
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Calculated by subtracting from CARB's 2023 46 tpd NOX commitments
  (Table 8) the adjustment to baseline from State and federal sources
  from 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions Supplement, Attachment 1 (21.5 tpd) and
  emissions reductions from currently SIP-creditable State measures on
  Table 7 (19.8 tpd).

    As shown in Table 9, reductions in the projected baseline inventory
from measures already adopted by the District and State (both prior to
and as part of the 2007 Ozone Plan and 2007 State Strategy) that EPA
has approved or proposed for approval provide the great majority of the
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 8-
hour ozone standard in the SJV. The balance is in the form of either
enforceable commitments to specific aggregate emissions reductions by
the District and CARB (lines E and F in Table 10 above) or reductions
from new or improved technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5) (line G
in Table 10). In this section we discuss the enforceable commitments
that are part of the attainment demonstration in the SJV 2007 8-hour
ozone SIP.
    We believe that, with respect to the 2007 SJV 8-hour Ozone SIP,
circumstances warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments as
part of the attainment demonstration.\30\ As shown in Table 9 above,
the majority of NOX emissions reductions and a substantial
fraction of the VOC reductions needed to demonstrate RFP and attainment
in the SJV come from rules and regulations that were adopted prior to
2007, i.e., from the baseline measures. As a result of these State and
District efforts, most sources in the San Joaquin Valley nonattainment
area are currently subject to stringent rules adopted prior to the
State Strategy's and the Plan's development, leaving few opportunities
(and generally more technologically and economically challenging ones)
to further reduce emissions. In the 2007 Ozone Plan and the 2007 State
Strategy, the District and CARB identified potential control measures
that could contribute many of the additional emissions reductions
needed for attainment. See 2007 Ozone Plan, Appendix I and 2007 State
Strategy, Chapter 5. However, the timeline needed to develop, adopt,
and implement these measures went beyond the November 2007 submittal
date of the SJV 8-hour Ozone SIP. These circumstances warrant the
District's and CARB's reliance on enforceable commitments as part of
the attainment demonstration in the 2007 Ozone Plan and 2007 State.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \30\ Based on SIP-creditable measures adopted to date, the SJV
2007 8-hour ozone SIP does not rely on enforceable commitments to
aggregate emissions reductions to demonstrate RFP or to meet any
other applicable requirement of the CAA. Therefore, we discuss here
only those enforceable commitments relied on to demonstrate
attainment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable
commitments, we now consider the three factors EPA uses to determine
whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted measures
to meet a CAA planning requirements is approvable: (a) Do the
commitments address a limited portion of the statutorily-required
program; (b) is the state capable of fulfilling its commitments; and
(c) are the commitments for a reasonable and appropriate period of
time.
a. The Commitments Are a Limited Portion of Required Reductions
    For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a
limited portion of a statutory requirement, such as the amount of
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate RFP and attainment in a
nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the
new technologies provision (CAA section 182(e)(5)) are not counted as
commitments.\31\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \31\ CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve an
attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from new
technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in CAA
section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emissions limitations under which
enforceable commitments are considered. As a result, reductions
attributed in the attainment demonstration to new technologies are
not considered part of the State's enforceable commitments for the
purposes of determining the percent of the reductions needed for
attainment that remain as commitments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As shown Table 9, the remaining portion of the enforceable
commitments, after accounting for approved measures and advanced
technology measures, needed to demonstrate attainment of the 8-hour
ozone standard in the San Joaquin Valley are 7.7 tpd of VOC and,
approximately 4.6 tpd of NOX. When compared to the total
reductions needed to demonstrate attainment (not including the CAA
section 182(e)(5) reductions in the attainment demonstration), the
remaining portion of the enforceable commitments represents at most 6.7
percent of the needed VOC and 1.1 percent of the needed NOX.
Historically, EPA has approved SIPs with enforceable commitments in the
range of 10 percent or less. See our approval of the SJV
PM10 Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004), the SJV 1-hour
ozone plan at 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010), the Houston-Galveston 1-hour
ozone plan at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001), proposed approval of the
SJV 2007 PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR 41338 (July 13, 2011), and
proposed approval of the South Coast PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR
41562 (July 14, 2011). Thus, the State's commitment addresses a limited
proportion of the required emissions reductions.

b. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling Its Commitments
    For the second factor, we consider whether the State and District
are capable of fulfilling their commitments.
    As discussed above, CARB has adopted and submitted the 2009 State
Strategy Status Report and the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, which update
and revise the 2007 State Strategy. These submittals show that CARB has
made significant progress in meeting its enforceable commitments for
the San Joaquin Valley. The District has already exceeded its
commitments for reducing NOX emissions for the attainment
year of 2023. See Tables 3 and 4 above and Table D-4 in the TSD. It
also has adopted additional rules (Rules 9510 and 4320) that are
projected to achieve NOX reductions in the attainment year.
These reductions, however, are not currently creditable to the
attainment and RFP demonstrations. In addition, the District has
adopted revisions to District Rule 4702 (Reciprocating Internal
Combustion Engines) that are likely to achieve substantial
NOX reductions. See SJVAPCD, Final Draft Staff Report
Proposed Amendments To Rule 4702 (Internal Combustion Engines), August
18, 2011. It has also adopted Rule 4566 (Organic Materials Composting
Operations) that will achieve an estimated 19 tpd reductions in VOC (in
SIP currency) by 2017. Finally, the District is continuing to work to
identify and adopt additional measures to reduce emissions. Beyond the
rules discussed above, both CARB and the District have well-funded
incentive grant programs to reduce emissions from the on- and off-road
engine fleets. Reductions from several of these programs have yet to be
quantified and/or credited in the attainment demonstration. See, for
example, SJVAPCD, 2008 PM2.5 Progress Report (May 2011),
section 2.3.
    Given the State's and District's efforts to date to reduce
emissions, we believe that the State and District are capable of
meeting their enforceable commitments to adopt measures to reduce
emissions of NOX and VOC to the levels needed in combination
with reductions from the new technologies provision to attain the 1997
8-hour ozone standard in the San Joaquin Valley by CAA deadline of June
15, 2024.
c. The Commitments Are for a Reasonable and Appropriate Timeframe
    For the third and last factor, we consider whether the commitment
is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
    In order to meet the commitments to reduce emissions to the levels
needed to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the San Joaquin
Valley, the 2007 Ozone Plan and 2007 State Strategy included ambitious
rule development, adoption, and implementation schedules, which both
the District and CARB have substantially met. Given that almost all the
emissions reductions committed to by District and CARB have already
been achieved and the rules that are likely to achieve the few
remaining ones are scheduled for adoption by 2013, these schedules
provide sufficient time to achieve the few remaining reductions needed
to attain (when considered with the emissions reductions provided by
the advanced technology provision) by the applicable attainment date of
June 15, 2024. See Tables 2 and 5 above. Thus, we find that the
commitments are for a reasonable and appropriate timeframe.
4. Proposed Action on the Attainment Demonstration
    In order to approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, EPA must make
several findings:
    First, we must find that the demonstration's technical bases--
emissions inventories and air quality modeling--are adequate. As
discussed above in sections IV.A. and IV.C.2., we are proposing to
approve the revised base year emissions inventory and to find the air
quality modeling adequate to support the attainment demonstration.
    Second, we must find that the SIP provides for expeditious
attainment through the implementation of all RACM. As discussed above
in section II.C., we are proposing to approve the RACM demonstration in
the SJV 2007 8-hour Ozone SIP as meeting the requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(1).
    Third, we must find that the emissions reductions that are relied
on for attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for
attainment. As shown on Table 9, the 2007 8-hour Ozone SIP relies
primarily on adopted and approved/waived rules to achieve the emissions
reductions needed to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standards in the SJV
by June 15, 2024. The balance of the reductions projected to be needed
for attainment is currently in the form of enforceable commitments to
adopt measures to achieve aggregate tonnage reductions of VOC or
NOX in the near term from available technologies and an
enforceable commitment to adopt and submit in the longer term measures
relying on the development and deployment of new technologies that will
achieve specific aggregate tonnage reductions of NOX.
    EPA has previously accepted enforceable commitments in lieu of
adopted control measures in attainment demonstrations when
circumstances warrant them and the commitments meet three criteria. As
discussed above in section IV.C.3., we propose to find that
circumstances here warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments
and that the three criteria are met: (1) The commitments constitute a
limited portion of the required emissions reductions, (2) both the
State and the District have demonstrated their capability to meet their
commitments, and (3) the commitments are for an appropriate timeframe.
Based on these evaluations, we are proposing to approve the enforceable
commitments as part of the attainment demonstration in the 2007 8-Hour
Ozone SIP.
    CAA section 182(e)(5) allows extreme ozone nonattainment area plans
under certain conditions to include provisions for the development of
new technologies and allows EPA to approve attainment demonstrations
based, in part, on those provisions. For the reasons discussed above in
section IV.B., we propose to find that California has met the
conditions for relying on the CAA's new technologies provisions in its
attainment demonstration for the SJV.
    As discussed above in section IV.C.2. above, the SJV Ozone Plan and
State Strategy, as adopted in 2007, demonstrates that a 75 percent
reduction in NOX emissions from the 2002 base year level is
necessary to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. Since the adoption
of the SJV ozone SIP in 2007, the base year NOX emissions
level has to be revised downward by 12 percent due to new inventory
methodologies and data. Both CARB and EPA recognize that the ideal
approach for evaluating the impact of these base year inventory changes
on the attainment target in the SJV 2007 Ozone Plan would be to perform
new air quality modeling, but both also recognize the time and effort
involved in such modeling. CARB has committed to update the SJV 2007
Ozone Plan modeling to reflect the emissions inventory improvements and
any other new information by December 31, 2014 or by the date the SIPs
are due for the revised 8-hour ozone standard whichever comes first.
See CARB Resolution 11-22, p. 3 and 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions, p. B-8.
EPA is proposing to approve this commitment.
    EPA believes that a 75 percent reduction from the base year
NOX emissions level from the existing

modeling provides the best currently available estimate of the
NOX reductions needed to reach attainment. CARB has
committed to, and has reaffirmed its commitment to achieve the
reductions needed for attainment in the SJV. See CARB Resolution 07-28
(September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 3, 2009 State Strategy Status
Report, p. 13, and CARB Resolution 11-22, p. 3. It has also stated that
these commitments are sufficient to address the attainment needs of the
SJV. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions Supplement, p. 1. As discussed above,
CARB's commitment to achieving 81 tpd of NOX emissions
reductions from new technologies is sufficient to cover any reductions
that may be needed for attainment due to the changes to the base year
inventory.
    For the foregoing reasons, we propose to approve the attainment
demonstration in the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP.

D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration

1. Requirements for RFP Demonstrations
    CAA section 172(c)(2) requires that plans for nonattainment areas
provide for reasonable further progress (RFP). RFP is defined in
section 171(1) as ``such annual incremental reductions in emissions of
the relevant air pollutant as are required by [title 1, part D] or may
reasonably be required by the Administrator for the purpose of ensuring
attainment of the applicable [standard] by the applicable date.'' CAA
Section 182(b)(1) specifically requires that SIPs for ozone
nonattainment areas that are classified as moderate or above
demonstrate a 15 percent reduction in VOC emissions between the years
of 1990 and 1996. For ozone nonattainment areas classified as serious
or higher, CAA Section 182(c)(2)(B) also requires, in addition to the
15 percent reduction required under CAA 182(b)(1), a three percent per
year reduction (averaged over three-year periods) of ozone precursor
emissions until attainment.
    The ozone implementation rule interprets the RFP requirements for
the purposes of the 1997 ozone standards, establishing requirements for
RFP that depend on the area's classification as well as whether the
area has an approved 15 percent rate of progress plan for VOC under CAA
section 182(b)(1) for the 1-hour ozone standard that covers the entire
8-hour ozone nonattainment area. See 40 CFR 51.910(d) and 70 FR 71612.
In 1997 EPA approved a 15 percent rate of progress plan for the SJV
which covers the current 1997 8-hour ozone standard nonattainment area.
See 62 FR 1150, 1172 (January 8, 1997). As a result, the area does not
need to demonstrate another 15 percent reduction in VOC. Instead, under
the ozone implementation rule, the 8-hour ozone SIP for SJV must
provide for an average of three percent per year of VOC and/or
NOX emissions reductions for (1) the six-year period
beginning January 1 of the year following the year used for the
baseline and (2) all remaining three-year periods after the first six-
year period out to the area's attainment date. 40 CFR
51.910(a)(1)(ii)(B). Except as specifically provided in CAA section
182(b)(1)(C), emissions reductions from all SIP approved, federally
promulgated, or otherwise SIP creditable measures that occur after the
baseline are creditable for purposes of demonstrating RFP targets are
met. The implementation rule also sets the baseline for RFP
calculations as 2002.
    The RFP demonstration must calculate and exclude the non-creditable
reductions described in CAA 182(b)(1)(D). These non-creditable
reductions include emissions reductions from pre-1990 federal motor
vehicle programs. The method for calculating the target emissions
levels is found in Appendix A to the preamble of the ozone
implementation rule. See 70 FR 71612 at 71696.
2. RFP Demonstration in the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP
    California has made several submittals to address the RFP
requirement for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the SJV. The last of
these is found in Appendix A of the 2011 Ozone SIP Revisions. This
revised demonstration incorporates the inventory revisions described in
section IV.A. above as well as reductions from measures that have been
adopted since the 2007 Ozone Plan's submittal except for those that EPA
has determined by rule are not currently creditable. See 2011 Ozone SIP
Revisions, p. 2.
3. Proposed Action on the RFP Demonstration
    CARB calculated the RFP target levels following the method provided
in the ozone implementation rule and preamble. See 40 CFR 51.910 and 70
FR 71612 at 71631-71650. EPA has made minor adjustments to the State's
calculations to remove reductions from currently unapproved measures
(e.g., pesticides). A summary of our evaluation of the State's RFP
demonstration, taking into account these minor adjustments, is shown in
Table 11 below. The detailed analysis can be found in section II.G. of
the TSD. As shown in the Table 11, the SJV 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP
provides for RFP in each milestone years. We propose, therefore, to
approve the SIP's RFP demonstration.

                                                  Table 11--San Joaquin Rate of Progress Demonstrations
                                                             [Summer planning tons per day]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         2008                2011                2014                2017                2020                2023
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     VOC Calculation
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Target level of VOC needed to    365.0..............  327.2.............  293.6.............  264.4.............  239.7.............  218.1
 meet ROP requirement.
Baseline VOC in milestone year   408.8..............  355.9.............  333.5.............  331.0.............  333.0.............  341.5
 (with uncreditable reductions
 removed).
Apparent shortfall.............  43.8...............  28.7..............  39.9..............  66.6..............  93.3..............  123.4
Percent apparent shortfall in    9.8%...............  6.5%..............  9.2%..............  15.4%.............  21.6%.............  28.6%
 VOC.
Shortfall previous provided by   0.0%...............  9.8%..............  9.6%..............  9.2%..............  15.4%.............  21.6%
 NOX substitution.
Percent actual shortfall in VOC  9.8%...............  -3.3%.............  -0.4%.............  6.2%..............  6.2%..............  7.0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    NOX Calculations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adjusted NOX baseline (MVCP and  425.5..............  359.6.............  309.0.............  260.3.............  226.5.............  196.5
 uncreditable reductions
 removed).
Change in NOX since 2002         122.9..............  184.4.............  213.4.............  278.0.............  310.8.............  537.0
 adopted controls only.
Percent change in NOX since      22.4%..............  33.9%.............  42.8%.............  51.5%.............  57.8%.............  63.4%
 2002.

Percent change in NOX used for   0%.................  9.6%..............  9.6%..............  9.6%..............  15.8%.............  22.0%
 VOC substitution through
 previous milestone.
Percent reductions since 2002    22.4%..............  24.1%.............  33.0%.............  41.8%.............  41.8%.............  41.1%
 available for RFP substitution
 and contingency in the
 milestone year.
Percent change since 2002 used   9.8%...............  0.0%..............  0.0%..............  6.2%..............  6.2%..............  7.0%
 for VOC substitution in the
 milestone year, percent.
Percent change since 2002        12.6%..............  24.1%.............  33.0%.............  35.6%.............  35.5%.............  34.1%
 surplus after meeting
 substitution in the milestone
 year.
RFP met?.......................  Yes................  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes...............  Yes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control
Measures To Offset Emissions Increases From VMT Increases, To Provide
for RFP and Attainment

1. Requirements for Transportation Control Strategies and
Transportation Control Measures To Offset Emissions Growth, To Provide
for RFP and Attainment
    CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) requires that areas classified as severe
or extreme submit transportation control strategies and transportation
control measures (TCM) sufficient to offset any growth in VOC emissions
from growth in VMT or the number of vehicle trips, and to provide
(along with other measures) the reductions needed to meet the
applicable RFP requirement. CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) also requires that
states choose and implement such measures as are specified in section
108(f), to the extent needed to demonstrate attainment. In selecting
the measures, Congress directed that States ``should ensure adequate
access to downtown, other commercial, and residential areas and should
avoid measures that increase or relocate emissions and congestion
rather than reduce them.'' CAA 182(d)(1)(A).
    EPA believes that it is appropriate to treat the three required
elements of section 182(d)(1)(A) (i.e., offsetting emissions growth,
attainment of the RFP reduction, and attainment of the ozone standard)
as separable. As to the first element of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A)
(i.e., offsetting emissions growth), EPA has historically interpreted
this CAA provision to allow areas to meet the requirement by
demonstrating that emissions from motor vehicles decline each year
through the attainment year. General Preamble at 13521-13522.\32\
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    \32\ See also 60 FR 48896 (September 21, 1995) approval of