A Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System for
Assessment of the Ozone

 National Ambient Air Quality Standard in

 the Ozone Transport Region

December 31, 2006

The Modeling Committee of the

Ozone Transport Commission

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1
Background……………………………………………………
………….……….6

1.2
Objectives……………………………………………………
…………………….6

1.3 Photochemical Modeling
System…………………………………………….…6

1.4
Deliverables……………………………………………………
………………….7

1.5
Schedule………………………………………………………
…………………..7

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

OTR Oversight
Committee………………………………………………………
.8

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling
Workgroup……………………………………..8

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling
Workgroup……………………………………..8

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development
Workgroup…………………………...8

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development
Workgroup………………………………8

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

3.1
Description……………………………………………………
……………………9

3.2 Horizontal Grid
Size…………………………………………………………
……9

3.2 Number of Vertical
Layers……………………………………………………….9

4 OZONE EPISODES

4.1 EPA Episode Selection
Criteria…………………………………………………9

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection
Procedure………………………………………10

5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological
Fields……………………………………………………...11

5.2 Quality Assurance of MM5 Meteorological
Fields…………………………….11

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Emission Inventories for OTC
States……………………………………11

6.2 2002 Emission Inventories for All Other OTR
States…………………………12

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR
Domain……………..12

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR
Domain……..12

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

8.1 Initial
conditions……………………………………………………
………………12

8.2 Boundary
conditions……………………………………………………
…………13

8.3 Ambient Air Quality
Data………………………………………………………….1
3

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input
Components…………………………………13

9.2 Diagnostic
Tests…………………………………………………………
…………13

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

10.1 Performance
Criteria………………………………………………………
……..13

10.2 Statistical Performance
Measures……………………………………………...14

11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for
2009………………………….15

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all other OTR States for
2009………………..15

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2010 AND 2013 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR
Domain…………………………….15

13 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening
Runs……………………………………...15

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform
Runs……………………………………………..16

13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission
Databases……………..…..16

13.4 OTR Domain Ozone Control
Strategy……………………………………..…..16

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES

14.1 2009 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for OTR
Domain………16

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

15.1 Initial
Conditions……………………………………………………
……………..16

15.2 Boundary
Conditions……………………………………………………
………..16

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009
……………………………………………….17

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for
2009………………………………….17

16 DOCUMENTATION
REPORT…………………………………………………………
.…17

17
REFERENCES……………………………………………………
………………………...17

APPENDIX A:  Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC
SIP Quality

                         Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone
National Ambient Air                                           Quality
Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

APPENDIX B:  Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC
SIP Quality

                         Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone
National Ambient Air                                           Quality
Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1 Background

Moderate non-attainment areas in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) are
required to attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2010.  Modeled or monitored
attainment is based on the summer ozone season preceding 2010, so the
target year for attainment modeling is 2009 for moderate non-attainment
areas. The Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) has embarked on the task of
preparing a State Implementation Plan (SIP) ozone modeling system for
exercising photochemical grid model(s) to assess the impact of candidate
ozone control strategies in moderate and serious non-attainment areas in
the OTR.  The OTC Directors endorsed the Modeling Protocol for the OTC
SIP Quality Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient
Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region at the November
12-13, 2003 Fall meeting of the OTC.  The subject protocol has been
modified since then to incorporate CMAQ model modifications and emission
inventory improvements.

This modeling protocol outlines procedures to prepare and use the OTC
SIP ozone modeling system to help design an ozone attainment strategy to
attain the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR.  Emission inventories for
point, area, on–road and off-road sources of NOx, VOC and CO will be
developed for a base year of 2002.  BEIS3 will be used to estimate
biogenic emissions.  MM5 will be used at a 12 km grid resolution and, in
the photochemical grid model, 4 km grid cells will be nested in urban
areas where appropriate.  A model performance evaluation will be
prepared for 2002.  If model performance is satisfactory, emission input
files reflecting candidate control strategy scenarios for 2009 will be
prepared, and 2009 ozone levels will be simulated with the modeling
system.  OTC States with moderate and serious non-attainment areas will
then use these modeling results to help support required ozone
attainment demonstrations. However, it has become apparent that modeling
at a higher resolution than 12 km is not possible without improvements
in the modeling system in terms of the physical and chemical formulation
as well as the need for development of emissions estimates at spatial
resolutions higher than county-level estimates.

1.2 Objective

The New York Department of Environmental Conservation has agreed to be
the lead agency

for developing a SIP quality ozone modeling system for assessing the
future year attainment

of the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR.  The CMAQ model will be used to
evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies in the OTR Modeling
Domain. The regulatory objective will be to design an ozone control
strategy that will result in attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in
moderate non-attainment areas by 2009.

1.3 Photochemical Modeling System

The OTC Modeling Committee in its prior work exercised both CMAQ and
CAMx and noticed that even though these models had performed similarly
in estimating ozone on an over-all basis, the level of agreement between
the simulated and measured concentrations varied from good to bad
depending on the model and depending upon the simulation day.  So, as
part of this protocol, both models (which continue to be updated by
their developers) will be applied for an episode that occurred in 2002.
However, it was soon recognized that there was a need for application of
a one-atmosphere modeling system that would provide estimates of both
ozone and particulate matter and that the same base year emissions and
meteorological data would be utilized in the development of appropriate
SIPs. This together with USEPA’s launching of the CMAS center that
provides a venue for sharing information from other modelers led the OTC
modeling committee to select the CMAQ model for application in its SIP
Quality Ozone Modeling System for testing the effectiveness of proposed
control strategies in the OTR.

The OTC Modeling Committee also examined the performances of two
emissions processors (EMS2001 and SMOKE, both using CB4 chemistry) from
prior work and concluded that there are differences between them that
could be minimized by forcing the models to use a common speciation and
surrogate database. Since CMAQ was the air quality model of choice,
given that it handled inputs from SMOKE more readily than it did from
the EMS2001 processor, the SMOKE emission processor was selected for
constructing emission files for the SIP Quality Ozone Modeling System
for the OTR Domain.

1.4 Deliverables

The key deliverables for the SIP quality ozone modeling system for the
OTR are listed below.

Select Ozone Episodes

Prepare Meteorological Fields

Prepare 2002 Emission Inventories for each OTC State

Acquire 2002 Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR Domain

Prepare 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

Complete 2002 Model Performance Evaluation for the OTR Domain

Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for each OTC State

Acquire 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR
Domain

Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

Complete Modeling Runs for 2009 CAA Scenarios

Design Control Strategy for the OTR Modeling Domain.

Prepare 2009 Emission Input Files for OTR Control Strategy

Complete Modeling Runs for the OTR Control Strategy for 2009

Complete Evaluation Report for 2009 Control Strategy

1.5 Schedule

The schedule for developing the SIP quality modeling system and the
assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the Ozone Transport Region is provided
in Appendix A.  Because of delays encountered in developing, integrating
and processing state-of-the-art emission inventories from Regional
Planning Organizations in the MANE-VU modeling domain, schedule target
dates have been moved back approximately 9 months (complete Modeling TSD
report in March of 2007 instead of June of 2006).

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee (Appendix B)

OTC Air Directors will serve as the OTR Oversight Committee.  The Air
Directors will ensure

that 2002 and 2009 CAA emission inventories are prepared for each OTC
state in the OTR

Modeling Domain, and will also be responsible for obtaining emission
inventories for the non OTR States that are part of the OTR Modeling
Domain. The Air Directors will oversee the design of ozone control
strategies for the OTR, and will make the final decision on any funding
needed to develop the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System.  The Air
Directors will review all OTC SIP Quality Modeling System documentation
before it is released to interested parties. The state members of the
OTC Modeling Committee will keep Air Directors informed of the
development of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System.

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B)

OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for preparing
the modeling

assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the OTR.  The Workgroup will be
responsible for collecting

and processing model input data, setting up all model input files,
performing model runs, and

interpreting and documenting the results of the modeling analyses for
the OTR domain.

The Workgroup will prepare and submit all OTC SIP quality modeling
system documentation to

the OTC Air Directors.

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for
preparing and assessing

MM5 meteorological fields for the OTR Modeling Domain.  This Workgroup
will also work with

the OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup to prepare all meteorological
input files for the

OTC SIP quality modeling system.

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup will be responsible for
obtaining and

developing guidance for preparing 2002 and 2009 state emission
inventories for all states in the

OTR.  The OTC Air Directors will be responsible for obtaining emission
inventories for non-OTR

states in the OTR Modeling Domain.  The Mid-Atlantic Regional Air
Management Association

(MARAMA) and the Mid-Atlantic /Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU)
organizations will

provide funding for contractors and work with OTR states to help prepare
state-of-the-art 2002

emission files, 2009 CAA emission files and 2009 Control Strategy
emission files for the OTR

Modeling Domain.

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup will be responsible for
designing an ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain that will attain
the ozone NAAQS by 2009 in moderate non-attainment areas and 2012 in
serious non-attainment areas.  The Workgroup will work with the OTC
stationary /area source committee and the OTC mobile source committee to
design an effective ozone control strategy for the OTR domain.

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

3.1 Description

The OTR modeling domain (see Figure 1) follows the national grid adopted
by the Regional Haze Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs), but with
focus on the eastern U.S. The areal extent of the domain was selected
such that the northeastern areas of Maine are inside the domain. Based
upon the existing computer resources, the southern and western
boundaries were limited to the region shown in Figure 1.  At a
horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, there are 172 grids in the
east-west and 172 grids in north-south direction.  Details of the
modeling system setup can be found at   HYPERLINK
"ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/gsistla/otc-mm5-cmaq-grid-de
f.doc"
ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/gsistla/otc-mm5-cmaq-grid-def
.doc

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size

Following EPA and as noted above, a 12 km grid resolution will be used
for the domain. A coarser mesh may not be appropriate for urban area
applications.  Modeling at a higher resolution than 12 km will not be
performed at this time; to do would require improvements in the modeling
system in terms of the physical and chemical formulation as well as the
need for development of emissions at a higher spatial resolution than
that for the currently available county-level estimates.

3.3 Number of Vertical Layers

Similar to the horizontal grid spacing which is fixed by the default set
forth in the design of the meteorological model, in this case 12 km, the
definition of the vertical structure could also be adopted one-to-one
based upon the meteorological model which has 29 layers. However, given
the computational resources and runtime needs the number of vertical
layers in the photochemical model was limited to 22, of which the lower
16 layers (approximately 3km) were set one-to-one with those of the
meteorological model.

4 OZONE EPISODES

4.1 Episode Selection Criteria

Since it would be impractical to model every violation day, EPA has
recommended targeting a select group of episode days for ozone
attainment demonstrations.  Such episode days should be (1)
meteorologically representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in
the domain, and (2) so severe that any control strategies predicted to
attain the ozone NAAQS for that episode day would also result in
attainment for all other exceedance days.

Figure 1: OTC Modeling Domain with areal extent of 12km and 36km grids

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure

While the above-suggested approach is perhaps feasible for isolated
urban areas, such an approach may not be meaningful given the areal
extent of concern and the modeling domain. Also, selection of episodes
from different years would require the generation of the meteorological
fields and emissions database, which would be an extremely difficult
proposition given the modeling domain.  The 2002 ozone season had a
significant number of exceedance days (the spatial distribution of the
daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima over the eastern U. S. can be examined at the
site   HYPERLINK
"ftp://ftp.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/htdocs/index.html"
ftp://ftp.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/htdocs/index.html ). It was
decided that the 5-month ozone season of 2002 would be simulated with
the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System which will involve investigating
numerous ozone episodes and would provide for better assessment of the
simulated pollutant fields.  The Environ report “Determination of
Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season for Ozone Transport Region SIP
Modeling” demonstrated that 2002 episode days are (1) meteorologically
representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in the domain, and
(2) are probably so severe that control strategies predicted to attain
the ozone NAAQS for those episode day would also result in attainment
for all other exceedance days.

5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields

The MM5 setup has been described by Zhang (2000) for generating
meteorological fields based on a modified Blackadar scheme for the
boundary layer.  Since there are a variety of options that can be
exercised in the application of MM5, initial testing was performed for a
high ozone event of 2002 with the most commonly used default options as
well as with modified boundary layer schemes (Zhang and Zheng 2004). A
set of options was selected and used by Prof. Zhang of UMD in
consultation with NYDEC Staff for running MM5 for the 2002 5-month ozone
season.

Quality Assurance of Meteorological Fields

As a part of this effort, the simulated meteorological fields will be
compared to data collected under CASTNET as well as with observations
from the National Weather Service (NWS).  Prior experience has shown
that these approaches provide for an independent assessment of the
simulated meteorological conditions. Also, data from any other special
measurements will be sought and compared with the simulated fields. This
analysis should provide a degree of confidence in the simulated
meteorological fields and their use in photochemical grid modeling.
This work will be coordinated through the meteorological model work
group.

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for OTC states

Each state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2002 base year emission
Inventory that include VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone summer day.
States are to follow EPA guidance documents for this base year
inventory, which is due to EPA by June 1, 2004.  Note this inventory may
also qualify as the consolidated emissions regulatory report (CERR).

Emissions for all categories will be estimated for each county and state
and the seasonal factors will facilitate spatial and temporal
adjustments for modeling.  Point and area source data will be submitted
by individual states to EPA for uploading to EPA's National Emission
Inventory (NEI) database using the required EPA format.  MOBILE6.2 input
files and VMT data will be submitted to NEI so that EPA can generate
on-road mobile emissions for each state by county in a format that can
be easily gridded and speciated.  Similarly, off-road input files will
be sent to EPA for running the latest NONROAD model.

It is anticipated that these state inventories will follow the EPA
prescribed approach and should be formatted in a consistent manner.
While this protocol deals with 8-hr ozone issues, the inventory would
also contain the necessary information for exercising the particulate
option of the photochemical model.  This would be of help in those cases
where the one-atmosphere option is to be exercised in the assessment.
Biogenic emissions will be estimated with EPA’s BEIS-3 emissions
model.

6.2 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for All Other States in the OTR
Domain

A 2002 base year emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a
typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the
OTR domain.  It is anticipated that these inventories will be developed
following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner.

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

Emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. The surrogate data files
for the OTR grid have been previously developed by NY DEC and will be
used in this study. For those pollutants that depend upon ambient
temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature fields will be used.

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

The processing of the emissions data will include several quality checks
before the data are exercised in the simulations.  Prior experience has
shown that considerable time and resources are often invested in
developing the gridded emissions data.  While there are many avenues to
improve or correct the data, based upon consensus of the OTC
Photochemical Modeling Workgroup, a definite closure of the emissions
processing will be adhered to and any further changes or corrections
will be archived and incorporated at a later date.  In performing this
work, close attention will be paid to the emissions within the OTR and,
if necessary, corrections will be incorporated on the advice of the OTC
Photochemical Modeling Workgroup.

Biogenic emissions will be prepared for each episode day using BEIS-3.
The temperature data from MM5 layer-1 will be used along with cloud
cover information obtained from MM5.

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

8.1 Initial Conditions

Prior experience has shown that a 3-day ramp-up period is sufficient to
establish pollutant levels that are encountered in the beginning of the
ozone episode.  In this application clean conditions will be assumed for
the 1st hour of the simulation along with the emissions and boundary
conditions as described below. Since the application was to be in
one-atmosphere mode using a common platform, it was determined that a
longer ramp-up period of 15 days was needed because experiments
indicated that some of the PM2.5 species from the initial conditions
(IC) were retained for ramp-up periods of 10 days or less. Thus the CMAQ
model run will start on May 1, 2002; the first 15 days are assumed to be
ramp-up days and will not used for performance evaluation purposes.

8.2 Boundary Conditions

In prior studies attempts were made to include any available information
from ozonesondes and monitors that are near the western and northern
boundaries of the modeling domain. For this study, similar attempts will
be made to obtain pollutant data at the boundaries.

For boundary conditions, NY DEC will run CMAQ with the continental 36 km
grid using GEOS-CHEM simulation data for 2002.  The GEOS-CHEM
information will be obtained by NESCAUM from Prof. Daniel Jacob's group
of Harvard University. Hour by hour boundary conditions will then be
extracted from the continental 36 km CMAQ run results and used for the
OTR 12 km modeling domain.

8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data

Ambient air quality data will be extracted from the EPA AQS archive for
ozone, CO, NOx, and total and speciated hydrocarbons reported as part of
the PAMS network. Also, data from CASTNET will be obtained.  Since the
OTR modeling domain extends over two time zones, while the model
simulations are reflective of a single time zone, EST, there will be a
need to ”correct” the clock and assemble the ambient air quality
database.  Any special measurements that are relevant to this study
during the summer of 2002 will also be acquired, including upper air
measurements.

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components

Before proceeding with modeling, all air quality, emissions, and
meteorological data will be

reviewed to ensure completeness, accuracy, and consistency.  Any errors,
missing data or

inconsistencies will be addressed using appropriate methods that are
consistent with standard practices.

9.2 Diagnostic Tests

Attempts will be made to perform diagnostic tests to ensure that the
simulated ozone patterns are in agreement with observed patterns over
the entire simulation period.  While it is unrealistic to expect
day-to-day agreement between the measured and predicted data, close
attention will be paid to the changes in pattern of the measured ozone
levels and the ability of the model to capture such changes.

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

10.1 Performance Criteria

This is an area that will likely require dialog among member states.
While there are many statistical tests that can be applied to predicted
ozone concentrations, it is important to define a priori some of the
conditions of the analysis and the targets of evaluation.  Also, it is
important to define the areal extent for which the assessment needs to
be done to address the performance of the model. Statistical tests are
to be applied to the precursor data as well, recognizing that all tests
applied to the ozone data may or may not be valid.

As part of the model assessment, qualitative analysis will also be
performed by comparing predicted and measured pollutant fields to
establish if the spatial patterns are captured by the modeling system.
This is a critical step, since the measured concentrations may fall into
a neighboring grid cell (but not at the measured location itself) and
may be found to be in good agreement.

Another area that is quite important is the predictive ability of the
model with respect to height. Recognizing that the pollutants trapped
above the mixed layer during the overnight hours would mix down during
the daytime, comparison will be made between measurements and model
predictions.   Special attention will be paid to elevated monitoring
stations, such as the television tower near Durham, North Carolina; the
Sears Tower in Chicago, Illinois, and monitors located at elevated rural
stations at Whiteface Mountain, NY.

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures

The recommended EPA procedures will be used to calculate the recommended
performance measures.  At a minimum, the following three statistical
performance measures will be used to assess CAMx model performance for
each episode.

Unpaired highest-prediction accuracy

     This measure quantifies the difference between the highest observed
eight-hour

     value in the domain and the highest predicted value in the domain.
The acceptable                performance range is plus or minus 15-20
percent.

Normalized bias

     This measure indicates the degree to which simulated eight-hour
values are over or

     under-predicted.  The acceptable performance range is plus or minus
5-15 percent.

Gross error of all pairs above 40 ppb

      This measure indicates the average discrepancy between predicted
and observed

      values and provides an overall assessment of model performance.
The

      acceptable performance range is 30-35 percent.

11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTR States for 2009

Each OTC state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2009 CAA emission
inventory that is consistent with the regulations and rules adopted or
expected to be in-place.  The inventory will be developed consistent
with EPA guidance.  The states will develop the information on growth
factors and controls used in the development of the inventory.  Each
state will submit a report on the development of these future year
inventories.

Since the electric energy generation and use are highly inter-connected,
coupled with the existing rules on trading and banking of pollutants, it
is expected that an inventory consistent with this information would be
developed for all electric energy generation units using models such as
IPM.

Recognizing that any prediction of future emissions are subject to
changes, the OTC Modeling Committee would develop a decision framework
on obtaining these emissions to be consistent with the OTC SIP quality
modeling system schedule (Appendix A).

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all non-OTR States for 2009

A 2009 CAA emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a
typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the
OTR.  It is anticipated that these inventories will be developed
following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner.

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2009 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain for 2009

2009 CAA emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. For pollutants
that depend on ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature
fields will be used to estimate hourly emission rates.  The biogenic
emission input files prepared for the base 2002 will be used as a
surrogate for 2009 biogenic emissions.  These emissions data will be
processed using the quality assurance checks described in section 7.2.

It should be noted that the CAA means all on the books and on the way
control measures (OTB/OTW) scheduled to be in effect by 2009.

13 OTR DOMAIN OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs

A series of CALGRID screening runs will be performed to investigate the
level of emissions reductions needed both within and outside of the OTR.
 This will help identify potential emission reductions scenarios that
can be used for CMAX future year SIP modeling runs.

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs

OTC SIP modeling platform CAA runs for 2009 will be reviewed to help
determine the level of emissions reductions needed to attain the ozone
NAAQS.   VOC and NOX sensitivity runs will also be performed to help
identify potential emission reductions scenarios that can be used to
lower ozone levels in the OTR.

13.3   Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases

A review of air quality and emission databases (for example, EPA Clear
Skies and Transport Rule emission files) will be performed to help
identify potential source sectors of ozone precursors.  Analysis of
available EPA modeling results will also be performed to help identify
potential source sectors of ozone precursors in, and upwind, of the OTR
domain.

13.4 Ozone Control Strategy for the OTR Domain

The OTR Control Strategy Development Team will review CALGRID results,
other available databases, and EPA databases, to help identify potential
control programs.  The Team will work with OTR states and the OTC
stationary, area and mobile source committees to design ozone control
strategies for the OTR Domain with the goal of meeting regulatory target
dates.

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES

14.1 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain for
2009

Emissions files for the selected ozone control strategy for the OTR
Domain for 2009 will be prepared in a consistent manner as per schedule.
 If necessary, additional IPM simulations may be performed to obtain EGU
emission estimates.

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

15.1 Initial Conditions

The initial conditions at the startup will be “clean”.  The OTR
Modeling Team will use the 2002 initial condition files as a surrogate
for initial conditions for 2009 modeling runs.

15.2 Boundary conditions

EPA will be consulted for guidance in estimating boundary conditions for
2009 or, under default, would utilize those adapted for the Base 2002
base year simulation. It should be noted that the default option was
used for the 2009 CMAQ simulation.

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009

The model will be run with the CAA emission files developed for 2009.
Tile plots,

difference plots, and model statistics will be prepared to help
characterize the extent of

any remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR in 2009.

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009.

The model will be run with OTR control strategy emission files prepared
for 2009.  Tile plots, difference plots and model statistics will be
prepared to help characterize the extent of any

remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR for the year 2009.

16 DOCUMENTATION

A report titled “Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality
Standards in the Ozone Transport Region will be prepared by the OTR
Modeling Team”.  The report would cover model performance evaluation,
and an evaluation of the OTR control strategy runs for 2009. This
technical document will be made available to all interested parties and
will be used by the member States in their SIP submission documentation
as needed.

17 REFERENCES

Environ (2006): Determination of Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season
for Ozone Transport Region SIP Modeling

Dalin Zhang (2000): Development of meteorological database for summer
1997 using MM5 at 12 km resolution in Photochemical Model Simulations

Dalin Zhang and William Zheng (2004): Diurnal cycles of surface winds
and temperatures as simulated by five boundary-layer parameterizations,
Journal of Appl. Meteorology 43, 157-169

Gopal Sistla (1999): Development of a surrogate database for use in
Regional/Urban-scale Modeling at 4 km spatial resolution (see
HYPERLINK "http://envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/"
http://envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/ )

Wick Havens (2000): Development of an Emissions Inventory for
Regional/Urban-scale Modeling, MARAMA-RTC (see  HYPERLINK
"http://www.marama.org/" http://www.marama.org/ )

APPENDIX A

Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality
Modeling System for Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality
Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

OTC Photochemical Modeling Workgroup

State Lead	                             Gopal Sistla

OTC contact		               Tom Frankiewicz

Chair OTC Modeling Committee	Barbara Kwetz

Delaware		Mohammed Majeed

DC			Rama Tangirala

Maine			Tom Downs

Maryland		Mike Woodman

Massachusetts		Steve Dennis

New Hampshire	               Jeff Underhill

New York		Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania		Tim Leon Gurrero

NESCAUM		Gary Kleiman

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

OTC Meteorological Modeling Workgroup

State Lead		Mike Woodman

OTC contact		Tom Frankiewicz

Connecticut		Dave Wackter

Delaware		Mohammed Majeed

DC			Rama Tangirala

Maine			Tom Downs

Maryland		Tad Aburn

			Matt Seybold

			Mike Woodman

			Jeff Stehr

Massachusetts		Rich Fields

New Hampshire	              Jeff Underhill

New Jersey		Alan Dresser

New York		Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania		Tim Leon Gurrero

Vermont		               Paul Wishinski

Virginia		               Kirit Chaudhar

MARAMA		Serpil Kayin

NESCAUM		Gary Kleiman

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

OTC Emission Inventory Development Workgroup

State Lead		Ray Malenfant

OTC contact	              Tom Frankiewicz

Connecticut		Bill Simpson

Delaware		Dave Fees

DC			Rama Tangirala

Maine			Dave Wright

Maryland		Roger Thgunell

Massachusetts		Ken Santlal

New Hampshire	               Mike Fitzgerald

Andy Bodnarik

New Jersey		Joan Held

New York		Jim Ralston

Pennsylvania		Dean Van Orden

Rhode Island		Karen Slattery

Vermont		              Jeff Merrell

Virginia		              Tom Ballou

MARAMA		Serpil Kayin

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

OTC/MANE-VU Control Strategies Workgroup

State Lead	               Jeff Underhill

OTC contact		Tom Frankiewicz

Connecticut		Dave Wackter

			Kurt Kebschull

Delaware		Ray Malenfant

			Mohammed Majeed

Maine			Jeff Crawford

			Tom Downs

Maryland		Tad Aburn

			Matt Seybold

			Mike Woodman

			Jeff Stehr

Massachusetts		Eileen Hiney

			Steve Dennis

New Hampshire	              Jeff Underhill

Andy Bodnarik

New Jersey		Bob Stern

			Ray Papalski

			Alan Dresser

			Robert Huizer

New York		Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania		Wick Havens

			Tim Leon Gurrero

Rhode Island		Barbara Morin

Vermont		              Paul Wishinski

Virginia		              Kirit Chaudhar

MARAMA		Serpil Kayin

			Megan Schuster

NESCAUM		Leah Weiss

			Gary Kleiman

EPA			Invited for selected discussions

APPENDIX B

Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality
Modeling System.

Work plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality
Modeling System†

Task

No.

Activity or Task	Initial

Target

Date	Organization(s) Performing Task

	Remarks & Status Notes & Revisions

	Initial Planning

	1

	Prepare a Work plan and a Modeling Protocol for the development of the
OTC SIP quality modeling system to address ozone non-attainment problems
in the OTR.

	Nov 03

	NY, MA

	Completed

	Meteorology

	2

3

4	Complete MM5 modeling for 2002 (May thru Sep)

Episode evaluation and assessment

Evaluate MM5 data and process for photochemical models.

	Dec 04

Dec 04

Mar 05	MD (UMCP), NY

Contract Support

MD (UMCP), NY	In progress

In progress

Inn progress

	Emissions Inventories

	5

6

7

8

	Prepare 2002 emission inventories for MANEVU states in the OTR Domain.

Obtain 2002 emission inventories for non-MANEVU states in the OTR
Domain.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission inventories for MANEVU states in the OTR
Domain.

Obtain 2009 CAA emission inventories for non-MANEVU states in the OTR
Domain.	Jan 05

Jan 05

Aug 05

Aug 05	MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA

	Emission Input files

	9

10

11

	Prepare 2002 emission files for the OTR domain with SMOKE and /or
EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission files for the OTR domain with SMOKE and /or
EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 emission files for OTR control strategy with SMOKE and /or
EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

	Nov 04

Nov 05

Nov 05	NY

NY

NY

	Delayed until Jan 05

Task

No.

Activity or Task	Initial

Target

Date	Organization(s) Performing Task

	Remarks & Status Notes & Revisions

	Modeling

	12

13

14

15

	Complete 2002 model performance evaluation for OTR Domain.

Test model sensitivity to NOx, VOC reductions and potential control
measure options.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 CAA scenarios.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 OTR control strategy

	May 05

Sep 05

Jan 06

Jan 06	NY

NY

NY

NY

	OTR Control Strategy Development

	16

17

18	Perform screening runs with OTC CALGRID modeling system

Review air quality and emission databases to help identify potential
sources of ozone in the OTR.

Design Control Strategy for the OTR Domain

	Mar 05

Jul 05

Sep 05

                    	OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

Reports

	19	Complete technical support documents presenting regional OTR
modeling and air quality/emission database analyses.  (These two
documents will provide technical support for state ozone SIPs.

	Jun 06	NY, other OTC states	This will allow states nine months to
prepare SIP revisions due in April 2007.

	Management

	20

21	Day-to-day management and coordination.

Provide direction, oversight, and obtain any necessary funding.
on-going

on-going

	OTC Modeling Committee

OTC Air Directors

† To be used as needed for Ozone SIPs in the OTR.  Based on EPA draft
guidance, Ozone SIPs expected submission by April 2007.

 PAGE

 PAGE   2


			  UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

		        DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

			  OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY

			          WASHINGTON, D.C.

Issued by the Department of Transportation on December 18, 2003

NOTICE OF ACTION TAKEN -- DOCKET OST-1999-5031

________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________

This serves as notice to the public of the action described below, taken
by the Department official indicated (no additional confirming order
will be issued in this matter).

Applicant:  China Southern Airlines Company Limited				Date Filed:
December 5, 2003

Relief requested: Renew exemption from 49 U.S.C. § 41301 to engage in
scheduled foreign air transportation of persons, property and mail
between Guangzhou, China, on the one hand, and Anchorage, Atlanta,
Boston, Chicago, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Detroit, Fairbanks, Honolulu, Las
Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York, Philadelphia, Portland,
San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., on the other hand.  China
Southern operates this service under a code-share/blocked space
agreement with Delta Air Lines on flights operated by Delta.

Date and citation of last action:  December 9, 2002, in this docket

Applicant representative:  Moffett B. Roller<PHONE_NUMBER>

Responsive pleadings:  None filed

	DISPOSITION

Action:  Approved								Action date:  December 18, 2003

Effective dates of authority granted:  December 18, 2003-December 18,
2004

Basis for approval (bilateral agreement/reciprocity):  U.S.-China Air
Transport Services Agreement

Except to the extent exempted/waived, this authority is subject to the
terms, conditions, and limitations indicated:

X Standard exemption conditions (attached) and China Southern’s
foreign air carrier permit (Order 2001-11-4)

X Statement of authorization for Delta Air Lines and China Southern
code-share operations dated February 19, 1999, in this docket, and
conditions therein.

Special conditions/Partial grant/Denial basis/Remarks:

Action taken by:   Paul L. Gretch, Director

		      Office of International Aviation

________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________

Under authority assigned by the Department in its regulations, 14 CFR
Part 385, we found that (1) the applicant was qualified to perform the
proposed operations; (2) our action was consistent with Department
policy; (3) grant of the authority was consistent with the public
interest; and (4) grant of the authority would not constitute a major
regulatory action under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975.
To the extent not granted/deferred/dismissed, we denied all requests in
the referenced Docket.  We may amend, modify, or revoke the authority
granted in this Notice at any time without hearing at our discretion.

Persons entitled to petition the Department for review of the action set
forth in this Notice under the Department’s regulations, 14 CFR §
385.30, may file their petitions within seven (7) days after the date of
issuance of this Notice.  This action was effective when taken, and the
filing of a petition for review will not alter such effectiveness.

An electronic version of this document is available on the World Wide
Web at:

http://dms.dot.gov//reports/reports_aviation.asp

											Attachment

Foreign Carrier Conditions

In the conduct of the operations authorized, the foreign carrier
applicant(s) shall:

(1)  Not conduct any operations unless it holds a currently effective
authorization from its homeland for such operations, and it has filed a
copy of such authorization with the Department;

(2)  Comply with all applicable requirements of the Federal Aviation
Administration, including, but not limited to, 14 CFR Parts 129, 91, and
36, and with all applicable U.S. Government requirements concerning
security.  To assure compliance with all applicable U.S. Government
requirements concerning security, the holder shall, before commencing
any new service (including charter flights) from a foreign airport that
would be the holder’s last point of departure for the United States,
contact its Principal Security Inspector (PSI) to advise the PSI of its
plans and to find out whether the Transportation Security Administration
has determined that security is adequate to allow such airport(s) to be
served;

(3)  Comply with the requirements for minimum insurance coverage
contained in 14 CFR Part 205, and, prior to the commencement of any
operations under this authority, file evidence of such coverage, in the
form of a completed OST Form 6411, with the Federal Aviation
Administration’s Program Management Branch (AFS-260), Flight Standards
Service (any changes to, or termination of, insurance also shall be
filed with that office);

(4)  Not operate aircraft under this authority unless it complies with
operational safety requirements at least equivalent to Annex 6 of the
Chicago Convention;

(5)  Conform to the airworthiness and airman competency requirements of
its Government for international air services;

(6)  Except as specifically exempted or otherwise provided for in a
Department Order, comply with the requirements of 14 CFR Part 203,
concerning waiver of Warsaw Convention liability limits and defenses;

(7)  Agree that operations under this authority constitute a waiver of
sovereign immunity, for the purposes of 28 U.S.C. 1605(a), but only with
respect to those actions or proceedings instituted against it in any
court or other tribunal in the United States that are: (a)  based on its
operations in international air transportation that, according to the
contract of carriage, include a point in the United States as a point of
origin, point of destination, or agreed stopping place, or for which the
contract of carriage was purchased in the United States; or (b)  based
on a claim under any international agreement or treaty cognizable in any
court or other tribunal of the United States.  In this condition, the
term "international air transportation" means "international
transportation" as defined by the Warsaw Convention, except that all
States shall be considered to be High Contracting Parties for the
purpose of this definition;

(8)  Except as specifically authorized by the Department, originate or
terminate all flights to/from the United States in its homeland;

(9)  Comply with the requirements of 14 CFR Part 217, concerning the
reporting of scheduled, nonscheduled, and charter data;

(10) If charter operations are authorized, except as otherwise provided
in the applicable aviation agreement, comply with the Department's rules
governing charters (including 14 CFR Parts 212 and 380); and

(11) Comply with such other reasonable terms, conditions, and
limitations required by the public interest as may be prescribed by the
Department, with all applicable orders or regulations of other U.S.
agencies and courts, and with all applicable laws of the United States.

This authority shall not be effective during any period when the holder
is not in compliance with the conditions imposed above.  Moreover, this
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敬㐠‹景琠敨唠匮潃敤മ


[Federal Register: October 20, 2009 (Volume 74, Number 201)]
[Notices]
[Page 53737-53738]
[DOCID:fr20oc09-54]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Notice of FERC Staff Attendance at Southwest Power Pool Regional
State Committee Annual Meeting and Southwest Power Pool Board of
Directors Meeting and Annual Meeting of Members

October 8, 2009.
    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission hereby gives notice that
members of its staff may attend the meetings of the Southwest Power
Pool (SPP) Regional State Committee, and SPP Board of Directors, as
noted below. Their attendance is part of the Commission's ongoing
outreach efforts.

SPP Regional State Committee Annual Meeting

    October 26, 2009 (1 p.m.-5 p.m.), Doubletree Hotel Warren Place,
6110 South Yale Avenue, Tulsa, OK 74136,<PHONE_NUMBER>.

SPP Board of Directors Meeting and Annual Meeting of Members

    October 27, 2009 (8 a.m.-3 p.m.), Doubletree Hotel Warren Place,
6110 South Yale Avenue, Tulsa, OK 74136,<PHONE_NUMBER>.
    The discussions may address matters at issue in the following
proceedings:
    Docket No. ER06-451, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER07-371, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER08-923, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER08-1307, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER08-1308, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER08-1357, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER08-1358, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER08-1419, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-35, Tallgrass Transmission LLC
    Docket No. ER09-36, Prairie Wind Transmission LLC
    Docket No. ER09-262, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-342, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-659, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1050, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1254, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1255, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.

    Docket No. ER09-1386-001, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1397, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1665-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1714-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1716-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.,
    Docket No. ER09-1732-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1733-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1736-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER09-1740-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER10-13-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER10-21-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER10-33-000, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. ER08-1419, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. OA08-5 and EL09-40, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. OA08-60, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. OA08-61, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    Docket No. OA08-104, Southwest Power Pool, Inc.
    These meetings are open to the public.
    For more information, contact Patrick Clarey, Office of Energy
Market Regulation, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission at (317) 249-
5937 or<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
Nathaniel J. Davis, Sr.,
Deputy Secretary.
[FR Doc. E9-25176 Filed 10-19-09; 8:45 am]

BILLING CODE 6717-01-P


[Federal Register: July 8, 2009 (Volume 74, Number 129)]
[Notices]
[Page 32638]
[DOCID:fr08jy09-91]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

Federal Emergency Management Agency

[Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-1848-DR; Docket ID FEMA-2008-0018]

Kansas; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS.

ACTION: Notice.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: This is a notice of the Presidential declaration of a major
disaster for the State of Kansas (FEMA-1848-DR), dated June 24, 2009,
and related determinations.

DATES: Effective Date: June 24, 2009.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Peggy Miller, Disaster Assistance
Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency, 500 C Street, SW.,
Washington, DC 20472,<PHONE_NUMBER>.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that, in a letter
dated June 24, 2009, the President issued a major disaster declaration
under the authority of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and
Emergency Assistance Act, 42 U.S.C. 5121 et seq. (the ``Stafford
Act''), as follows:

    I have determined that the damage in certain areas of the State
of Kansas resulting from a severe winter storm and record and near
record snow during the period of March 26-29, 2009, is of sufficient
severity and magnitude to warrant a major disaster declaration under
the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act,
42 U.S.C. 5121 et seq. (the ``Stafford Act''). Therefore, I declare
that such a major disaster exists in the State of Kansas.
    In order to provide Federal assistance, you are hereby
authorized to allocate from funds available for these purposes such
amounts as you find necessary for Federal disaster assistance and
administrative expenses.
    You are authorized to provide Public Assistance in the
designated areas; assistance for emergency protective measures
(Public Assistance Category B), including snow removal for any-
continuous 48-hour period during or proximate to the incident period
in the designated areas; Hazard Mitigation throughout the State; and
any other forms of assistance under the Stafford Act that you deem
appropriate. Consistent with the requirement that Federal assistance
is supplemental, any Federal funds provided under the Stafford Act
for Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation will be limited to 75
percent of the total eligible costs. If Other Needs Assistance under
Section 408 of the Stafford Act is later requested and warranted,
Federal funding under that program will also be limited to 75
percent of the total eligible costs.
    Further, you are authorized to make changes to this declaration
to the extent allowable under the Stafford Act.

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) hereby gives notice
that pursuant to the authority vested in the Administrator, under
Executive Order 12148, as amended, Michael L. Karl, of FEMA is
appointed to act as the Federal Coordinating Officer for this major
disaster.
    The following areas of the State of Kansas have been designated as
adversely affected by this major disaster:

    Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Coffey, Cowley, Dickinson, Elk,
Grant, Greenwood, Harvey, Lyon, Marion, Sumner, and Woodson Counties
for Public Assistance.
    The counties of Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Grant,
Haskell, Kearny, Kingman, Kiowa, McPherson, Meade, Pratt, Reno,
Rice, Seward, Stafford, Stanton, and Stevens for emergency
protective measures (Category B) under the Public Assistance program
for any continuous 48-hour period during or proximate to the
incident period.
    All counties within the State of Kansas are eligible to apply
for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

    The following Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance Numbers
(CFDA) are to be used for reporting and drawing funds: 97.030,
Community Disaster Loans; 97.031, Cora Brown Fund; 97.032, Crisis
Counseling; 97.033, Disaster Legal Services; 97.034, Disaster
Unemployment Assistance (DUA); 97.046, Fire Management Assistance
Grant; 97.048, Disaster Housing Assistance to Individuals and
Households In Presidentially Declared Disaster Areas; 97.049,
Presidentially Declared Disaster Assistance--Disaster Housing
Operations for Individuals and Households; 97.050, Presidentially
Declared Disaster Assistance to Individuals and Households--Other
Needs; 97.036, Disaster Grants--Public Assistance (Presidentially
Declared Disasters); 97.039, Hazard Mitigation Grant.

W. Craig Fugate,
Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency.
[FR Doc. E9-16078 Filed 7-7-09; 8:45 am]

BILLING CODE 9111-23-P