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 APPENDIX 2A: ADDITIONAL AIR QUALITY MODELING INFORMATION
 Overview
A 2016-based modeling platform was used to project future-year air quality for 2032 to identify areas that would exceed the existing and potential alternative PM NAAQS after accounting for expected emission reductions from `on-the-books' rules. This platform uses the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ; www.epa.gov/cmaq) model for air quality simulation and incorporates the most recent, complete set of base year emissions information available for national modeling. PM2.5 design values (DVs) were projected to 2032 using relative response factors (RRFs) developed from CMAQ simulations based on emissions estimated for 2016 and projected to 2032.
Air quality ratios, which relate a change in PM2.5 DVs to a change in emissions, were used to estimate the emission reductions needed to just meet the existing and alternative NAAQS in areas projected to exceed the standards in 2032. The emission reduction estimates are used in identifying controls and associated costs of meeting the standards. To inform calculations of the health benefits of meeting standards, annual-mean PM2.5 concentration fields corresponding to cases where the existing and alternative NAAQS are just met were developed. The PM2.5 concentration fields were created by adjusting the 2032 field based on the CMAQ modeling using the incremental change in annual PM2.5 DV needed to meet the standards.
      The overall steps in the air quality analysis are:
 Project annual and 24-hour PM2.5 DVs to 2032 using a CMAQ simulation for 2016 and a corresponding CMAQ simulation with emissions representative of 2032.
 Develop air quality ratios that relate a change in PM2.5 DVs to a change in emissions for use in estimating the emission reductions needed to just meet the existing and alternative NAAQS. The air quality ratios are developed using the change in DVs associated with CMAQ sensitivity modeling where 50% reductions in anthropogenic emissions were applied in targeted counties relative to previous CMAQ modeling for 2028.
 Using the air quality ratios from Step 2, estimate the emission reductions needed to meet the existing standards (12/35) beyond the 2032 modeling case. For counties in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and South Coast Air Basin of California, 75% reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions are applied in addition to reductions in primary PM2.5 emissions in this step. Concentrations of ammonium nitrate are elevated in SJV and South Coast, and these areas are pursuing both NOx and primary PM2.5 emission reductions to meet the existing standards. For other counties, primary PM2.5 emission reductions alone are applied. The resulting PM2.5 DVs define the 12/35 analytical baseline that is used as the reference case in estimating the incremental costs and benefits of meeting alternative standards relative to existing standards.
 Using the air quality ratios from Step 2, estimate the primary PM2.5 emission reductions needed to meet the alternative standards beyond the 12/35 analytical baseline.
 Develop a gridded national PM2.5 concentration field associated with the 2032 case by fusing the 2032 CMAQ modeling with projected monitor concentrations. Adjust the 2032 concentration field according to the changes in PM2.5 DVs needed to meet standard levels to create national PM2.5 concentration fields associated with meeting the existing and alternative standard levels.
 As a sensitivity analysis, estimate the influence on PM2.5 DVs of emission reductions beyond the 2032 modeling that are expected to occur due to EGU retirements and other factors became known or on-the-books after the EGU emissions projections were conducted for the 2032 CMAQ modeling.
In the remainder of this Appendix, the 2016 air quality model configuration and simulation are described and evaluated in Section 2A.1. The projection of air quality from 2016 to 2032 is described in Section 2A.2. The development of air quality ratios and their application to estimating emission reductions is described in Section 2A.3. The development of the PM2.5 concentration fields is described in Section 2A.4. Finally, the sensitivity analysis for EGU emission reductions beyond the 2032 CMAQ modeling case is described in section 2A.6.
 2A.1	2016 CMAQ Modeling
CMAQ modeling was performed for 2016 to provide a reference simulation for the PM2.5 DV projections to 2032 that are described in section 2A.2.
    2A.1.1	Model Configuration
CMAQ is a three-dimensional grid-based Eulerian air quality model designed to estimate the formation and fate of oxidant precursors, primary and secondary PM2.5 concentrations, and deposition over regional spatial scales (e.g., over the contiguous U.S.) (Appel et al., 2021, Appel et al., 2018, Appel et al., 2017). CMAQ simulates the key processes (e.g., emissions, transport, chemistry, and deposition) that affect primary (directly emitted) and secondary (formed by atmospheric processes) PM using state-of-the-science process parameterizations and input data for emissions, meteorology, and initial and boundary conditions. CMAQ's representation of the chemical and physical mechanisms that govern the formation and fate of air pollution enable simulations the impacts of emission controls on PM2.5 concentrations.
CMAQ version 5.3.2 (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4081737) was used to simulate air quality for 2016 to provide a reference simulation for the 2032 air quality projection. The geographic extents of the outer and inner air quality modeling domains are shown in Figure 2A-1. The outer domain covers the 48 contiguous states along with most of Canada and Mexico with a horizontal resolution of 36 x 36 km. Air quality modeling for the 36-km domain was used to provide chemical boundary conditions for the nested 12-km domain simulation, which was used in projecting air quality to the future. Both model domains have 35 vertical layers with a top at about 17.6 km (50 millibars). The chemical boundary and initial conditions for the 36-km modeling domain were developed with version 3.1.1 of the hemispheric CMAQ model (https://www.epa.gov/cmaq/hemispheric-scale-applications). The simulations included 10 days of model spin-up in December 2015 and produced hourly pollutant concentrations for each grid cell across each modeling domain.
Gas-phase chemistry in the CMAQ simulations was based on the Carbon Bond 2006 mechanism (CB6r3) (Emery et al., 2015), and deposition was modeled with the M3DRY parameterization. Aerosol processes were parameterized with the AERO7 module using ISORROPIA II for inorganic aerosol thermodynamics (Fountoukis and Nenes, 2007) and the non-volatile treatment for primary organic aerosol (Appel et al., 2017, Simon and Bhave, 2012). Emissions used were based on version 2 of the 2016 emissions modeling platform as described in detail previously (USEPA, 2022). Emissions of anthropogenic precursors for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) (Murphy et al., 2017) were not added to the simulation beyond what was captured in the National Emissions Inventory. Emissions of biogenic compounds were modeled with the Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS) (Bash et al., 2016). Emissions of sea-spray aerosol (Gantt et al., 2015) were simulated online within CMAQ using 2016 meteorology.
The 2016 meteorological data were derived from running Version 3.8 of the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) (Skamarock et al., 2008). The meteorological outputs from WRF include hourly-varying horizontal wind components (i.e., speed and direction), temperature, moisture, vertical diffusion rates, and rainfall rates for each grid cell in each vertical layer. Selected physics options used in the WRF simulations include Pleim-Xiu land surface model (Pleim et al., 2001, Xiu and Pleim, 2001), Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 planetary boundary layer scheme (Pleim, 2007), Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization (Kain, 2004) utilizing the moisture-advection trigger (Ma and Tan, 2009), Morrison double moment microphysics (Morrison et al., 2005, Morrison and Gettelman, 2008), and RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation schemes (Iacono et al., 2008). The meteorological model configuration and evaluation have been described previously (USEPA, 2019c).

                                     36US3
12US2
36US3
12US2
Figure 2A-1	Map of the Outer 36US3 (36 x 36 km Horizontal Resolution) and Inner 12US2 (12 x 12 km Horizontal Resolution) Modeling Domains Used for the PM NAAQS RIA
    2A.1.2	Model Performance Evaluation
CMAQ predictions were evaluated by comparison with observations from U.S. monitoring networks in 2016. Modeled PM2.5 concentrations were compared with available observations from U.S. EPA's Air Quality System (AQS) database (www.epa.gov/aqs). Modeled concentrations of PM2.5 components (nitrate; sulfate; elemental carbon; EC; and organic carbon, OC) were compared with observations from the Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network (USEPA, 2019d). CSN sites tend to be in relatively urban areas and IMPROVE sites in relatively rural areas. Model predictions were paired with observations in space and time by averaging predictions to the observation sampling period and matching predictions with monitors in a model grid cell. Regional performance statistics were summarized according to the U.S. climate regions defined in Figure 2A-2. The absolute and normalized bias and error statistics and Pearson correlation coefficient used in evaluating model performance are defined in Table 2A-1. As described below, performance statistics for this application are generally within the range of model performance statistics reported in previous applications (Kelly et al., 2019, Simon et al., 2012) and suggest that the simulations are suitable for use in our application.
In Figure 2A-3, PM2.5 model performance is shown for the AQS sites having the highest PM2.5 DVs in the county for counties with projected annual PM2.5 DVs greater than 8 g m[-3] or 24-hour DVs greater than 30 g m[-3]. For regions in the eastern U.S., normalized mean biases (NMBs) are within 15% and Pearson correlation coefficients are 0.58 or greater for all regions, except for the South (r=0.37). In western regions, the model is generally biased low compared with observations, with NMBs ranging from -16% in the Northwest to -30% in the Southwest. Underpredictions in western regions could be related to challenges in representing the influence of complex terrain in the 12-km modeling, challenges in simulating wildfire impacts, and underestimates of windblown dust influence. PM2.5 performance statistics by region and season across all sites are provided in Table 2A-2. For the annual period, NMB is within 13% in eastern regions and correlation coefficients are 0.55 or greater in four of the five regions. In the western regions, NMB ranged from 8.0% in the Northwest to -25.9% in the Northern Rockies and Plains and correlation coefficients ranged from 0.10 to 0.43.
Model performance statistics for PM2.5 sulfate by region and season for sites in the CSN and IMPROVE networks are provided in Table 2A-3. The annual NMBs in sulfate predictions are within +-16% for all regions except the Northwest (NMB: 64%) at CSN sites and within +-23% for all regions except the Northwest (NMB: 41%) at IMPROVE sites. Overpredictions of PM2.5 species concentrations in the Northwest have been previously attributed to challenges in simulating the atmospheric mixing height near the Puget Sound and at coastal sites and in simulating wildfire influence on concentrations (Kelly et al., 2019). Concentrations are relatively low in the Northwest compared with the eastern U.S., and mean biases (MBs) in sulfate predictions are <0.25 g m[-3] for both networks in the Northwest. Correlation coefficients over the annual period for sulfate predictions and observations were greater than 0.56 in six of the nine regions for CSN sites and seven of the nine regions at IMPROVE sites. Spatially, sulfate predictions tend to be biased slightly low in the southern and eastern parts of the domain and biased slightly high toward the Northwestern part of the domain (Figure 2A-4 and 2A-5).
Model performance statistics for PM2.5 nitrate by region and season for sites in the CSN and IMPROVE networks are provided in Table 2A-4. In five of the nine regions, the annual NMB in nitrate predictions is within +-18% at CSN sites and within +-30% at IMPROVE sites. Nitrate predictions are biased low in the West at CSN (NMB: -48.8%) and IMPROVE (NMB: -24.8%) sites. Underpredictions of nitrate during meteorological inversion episodes in western mountain basins have been identified in the past due to challenges in resolving the influence of complex terrain and chemical and meteorological coupling in 12-km modeling (Baker et al., 2011, Kelly et al., 2019). Outside of the Northwest, correlation coefficients for the annual period ranged from 0.59 to 0.79 at CSN sites and 0.52 to 0.75 at IMPROVE sites. Spatially, nitrate predictions tend to be biased high in the eastern US and low in western U.S. (Figure 2A-4 and 2A-5).
Model performance statistics for PM2.5 OC by region and season for sites in the CSN and IMPROVE networks are provided in Table 2A-5. The annual NMB in OC predictions is within +-30% for six of the nine regions at CSN sites and seven of the nine regions at IMPROVE sites. PM2.5 OC predictions are biased high (positive NMB) in eight of the nine regions at CSN sites and five of the nine regions at IMPROVE sites. Correlation coefficients over the annual period for OC predictions and observations were greater than 0.5 in five of the nine regions for CSN sites and four of the nine regions at IMPROVE sites. Spatially, OC predictions tend to be biased high in the eastern U.S. and low in the western U.S., although spatial variability exists (Figure 2A-4 and 2A-5). Modeling of the emissions, volatility and atmospheric chemistry related to organic aerosol formation is an active area of research (USEPA, 2019d).
Model performance statistics for PM2.5 EC by region and season for sites in the CSN and IMPROVE networks are provided in Table 2A-6. The annual NMB in EC predictions is within +-17% at CSN sites and within +-25% at IMPROVE sites for all regions except the Northwest. As mentioned above, overpredictions of PM2.5 species concentrations in the Northwest may be associated with challenges in modeling the mixing height near the coast, wildfire influence, and other factors. Correlation coefficients for the EC predictions and observations over the annual period were greater than 0.5 in seven of the nine regions for CSN and IMPROVE sites. Spatially, EC predictions tend to be biased slightly low through much of the US with predictions biased high along the coast of the Northeast and Northwest (Figure 2A-4 and 2A-5).

Figure 2A-2	U.S. Climate Regions (Karl and Koss, 1984) Used in the CMAQ Model Performance Evaluation

Table 2A-1	Definition of Statistics Used in the CMAQ Model Performance Evaluation
Statistic
Description
MB (g m[-3]) =  1ni=1nPi-Oi
Mean bias (MB) is defined as the average difference between predicted (P) and observed (O) concentrations for the total number of samples (n)
RMSE (g m[-3]) = i=1n(Pi-Oi)2/n
Root mean-squared error (RMSE)
NMB (%) = inPi-OiinOix100
The normalized mean bias (NMB) is defined as the sum of the difference between predictions and observations divided by the sum of observed values
NME (%) = inPi-OiinOix100
Normalized mean error (NME) is defined as the sum of the absolute value of the difference between predictions and observations divided by the sum of observed values
r = i=1n(Pi-P)(Oi-O)i=1n(Pi-P)2i=1n(Oi-O)2
Pearson correlation coefficient

Figure 2A-3	Comparison of CMAQ Predictions of PM2.5 and Observations at AQS Sites for County Highest PM2.5 Monitors with 2032 PM2.5 DVs Greater than 8/30

Table 2A-2	CMAQ Performance Statistics for PM2.5 at AQS Sites in 2016
                                    Region
                                    Season
                                       N
                                     Avg.
                                     Obs.
                                 (g m[-3])
                                     Avg.
                                     Mod.
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      MB
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      NMB
                                      (%)
                                     RMSE
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      NME
                                      (%)
                                       r
                                   Northeast
Winter
                                                                          13305
8.32
10.16
1.84
22.1
5.95
47.6
0.65

Spring
                                                                          13491
6.86
7.41
0.56
 8.1
3.85
39.0
0.69

Summer
                                                                          13636
7.20
6.61
-0.58
-8.1
3.45
35.3
0.56

Fall
                                                                          13413
6.72
7.94
1.22
18.1
4.90
46.8
0.65

Annual
                                                                          53845
7.27
8.02
0.75
10.3
4.63
42.3
0.64
                                   Southeast
Winter
                                                                          10996
7.37
8.47
1.09
14.8
5.26
41.8
0.48

Spring
                                                                          11218
8.05
7.60
-0.45
-5.6
3.47
29.9
0.60

Summer
                                                                          11501
8.01
6.59
-1.43
-17.8
3.55
32.6
0.51

Fall
                                                                          11454
8.88
8.69
-0.19
-2.2
5.28
32.9
0.63

Annual
                                                                          45169
8.09
7.83
-0.26
-3.2
4.47
34.0
0.55
                                  Ohio Valley
Winter
                                                                          10729
8.47
10.61
2.15
25.4
5.50
44.8
0.57

Spring
                                                                          10739
7.76
8.42
0.66
 8.6
4.65
39.3
0.47

Summer
                                                                          10753
8.54
8.36
-0.18
-2.0
3.93
32.7
0.49

Fall
                                                                          10761
8.92
10.48
1.56
17.5
5.67
40.2
0.62

Annual
                                                                          42982
8.42
9.47
1.05
12.5
4.99
39.3
0.55
                                 Upper Midwest
Winter
                                                                           6638
8.19
9.62
1.43
17.4
5.07
42.6
0.65

Spring
                                                                           6556
7.04
7.53
0.48
 6.9
7.98
44.2
0.30

Summer
                                                                           6253
6.02
6.00
-0.02
-0.4
3.35
39.9
0.52

Fall
                                                                           6863
6.42
7.65
1.23
19.2
4.29
45.2
0.65

Annual
                                                                          26310
6.93
7.73
0.80
11.5
5.46
43.1
0.52
                                     South
Winter
                                                                           7935
6.93
8.35
1.42
20.4
4.77
46.1
0.53

Spring
                                                                           8266
8.00
7.21
-0.79
-9.9
4.23
35.6
0.51

Summer
                                                                           7974
9.02
6.20
-2.81
-31.2
5.39
45.6
0.35

Fall
                                                                           7951
7.96
8.40
0.44
 5.5
4.52
37.0
0.57

Annual
                                                                          32126
7.98
7.53
-0.44
-5.6
4.74
41.0
0.43

                                   Southwest
Winter
                                                                           5373
8.12
6.59
-1.53
-18.9
8.45
58.1
0.39

Spring
                                                                           5447
4.77
5.16
0.39
 8.3
4.07
52.7
0.32

Summer
                                                                           5548
6.35
3.99
-2.36
-37.2
4.63
49.6
0.28

Fall
                                                                           5574
5.58
5.08
-0.50
-9.0
4.35
49.5
0.42

Annual
                                                                          21942
6.20
5.19
-1.00
-16.2
5.64
52.9
0.37
                               N. Rockies &
                                    Plains
Winter
                                                                           5006
5.80
3.60
-2.21
-38.0
6.77
62.9
0.29

Spring
                                                                           5238
5.22
4.04
-1.17
-22.5
15.61
61.9
0.11

Summer
                                                                           5267
6.55
4.32
-2.23
-34.0
34.38
66.1
0.09

Fall
                                                                           5065
4.58
4.46
-0.12
-2.6
6.55
63.8
0.22

Annual
                                                                          20576
5.54
4.11
-1.43
-25.9
19.66
63.8
0.10
                                   Northwest
Winter
                                                                           9961
7.90
6.18
-1.72
-21.8
8.67
70.3
0.24

Spring
                                                                          10059
4.23
5.42
1.19
28.1
4.88
64.3
0.45

Summer
                                                                           9884
4.72
6.37
1.65
34.9
8.29
69.0
0.44

Fall
                                                                           9864
5.63
6.32
0.69
12.2
6.67
69.0
0.39

Annual
                                                                          39768
5.62
6.07
0.45
 8.0
7.28
68.5
0.32
                                     West
Winter
                                                                          10915
9.47
7.53
-1.94
-20.5
6.83
47.0
0.61

Spring
                                                                          11124
6.79
5.99
-0.79
-11.7
3.80
39.3
0.57

Summer
                                                                          11516
9.24
7.46
-1.78
-19.3
9.73
43.8
0.25

Fall
                                                                          11097
8.64
7.15
-1.50
-17.3
6.24
43.8
0.47

Annual
                                                                          44652
8.54
7.03
-1.50
-17.6
7.01
43.8
0.43

Figure 2A-4	NMB in 2016 CMAQ Predictions of PM2.5 Components at CSN and IMPROVE Sites

Figure 2A-5	NMB in 2016 CMAQ Predictions of PM2.5 Components at CSN and IMPROVE Sites for Monitors in Counties with 2032 PM2.5 DVs Greater than 8/30
Table 2A-3	CMAQ Performance Statistics for PM2.5 Sulfate at CSN and IMPROVE Sites in 2016
                                    Region
                                    Network
                                    Season
                                       N
                                     Avg.
                                     Obs.
                                 (g m[-3])
                                     Avg.
                                     Mod.
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      MB
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      NMB
                                      (%)
                                     RMSE
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      NME
                                      (%)
                                       r
                                   Northeast
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            696
                                                                           1.04
                                                                           1.06
                                                                           0.02
                                                                            1.6
                                                                           0.87
                                                                           43.0
                                                                           0.29

Spring
                                                                            741
                                                                           0.92
                                                                           1.02
                                                                           0.10
                                                                           10.8
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           38.4
                                                                           0.59

Summer
                                                                            736
                                                                           1.16
                                                                           0.98
                                                                          -0.18
                                                                          -15.5
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           28.7
                                                                           0.79

Fall
                                                                            705
                                                                           0.88
                                                                           0.96
                                                                           0.09
                                                                            9.8
                                                                           0.55
                                                                           36.7
                                                                           0.70

Annual
                                                                           2878
                                                                           1.00
                                                                           1.01
                                                                           0.00
                                                                            0.5
                                                                           0.62
                                                                           36.3
                                                                           0.57

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            349
                                                                           0.72
                                                                           0.67
                                                                          -0.05
                                                                           -7.3
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           30.3
                                                                           0.70

Spring
                                                                            387
                                                                           0.73
                                                                           0.72
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.6
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           26.8
                                                                           0.76

Summer
                                                                            396
                                                                           0.70
                                                                           0.62
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                          -11.9
                                                                           0.34
                                                                           32.2
                                                                           0.83

Fall
                                                                            375
                                                                           0.58
                                                                           0.57
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.9
                                                                           0.26
                                                                           30.4
                                                                           0.84

Annual
                                                                           1507
                                                                           0.68
                                                                           0.65
                                                                          -0.04
                                                                           -5.8
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           29.9
                                                                           0.80
                                   Southeast
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            456
                                                                           0.93
                                                                           1.02
                                                                           0.09
                                                                            9.5
                                                                           0.44
                                                                           35.4
                                                                           0.64

Spring
                                                                            490
                                                                           1.11
                                                                           1.08
                                                                          -0.03
                                                                           -2.8
                                                                           0.48
                                                                           30.9
                                                                           0.56

Summer
                                                                            463
                                                                           1.11
                                                                           0.89
                                                                          -0.22
                                                                          -19.6
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           32.0
                                                                           0.54

Fall
                                                                            447
                                                                           0.95
                                                                           0.97
                                                                           0.02
                                                                            1.9
                                                                           0.36
                                                                           25.7
                                                                           0.72

Annual
                                                                           1856
                                                                           1.03
                                                                           0.99
                                                                          -0.04
                                                                           -3.5
                                                                           0.45
                                                                           31.0
                                                                           0.60

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            342
                                                                           0.95
                                                                           0.85
                                                                          -0.10
                                                                          -10.6
                                                                           0.44
                                                                           35.0
                                                                           0.61

Spring
                                                                            379
                                                                           1.24
                                                                           0.97
                                                                          -0.27
                                                                          -21.6
                                                                           0.61
                                                                           30.6
                                                                           0.45

Summer
                                                                            394
                                                                           1.21
                                                                           0.77
                                                                          -0.44
                                                                          -36.3
                                                                           0.61
                                                                           41.0
                                                                           0.58

Fall
                                                                            366
                                                                           1.04
                                                                           0.86
                                                                          -0.17
                                                                          -16.8
                                                                           0.39
                                                                           26.9
                                                                           0.72

Annual
                                                                           1481
                                                                           1.12
                                                                           0.86
                                                                          -0.25
                                                                          -22.6
                                                                           0.53
                                                                           33.6
                                                                           0.56
                                  Ohio Valley
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            510
                                                                           1.34
                                                                           1.14
                                                                          -0.20
                                                                          -15.0
                                                                           0.81
                                                                           35.3
                                                                           0.52

Spring
                                                                            526
                                                                           1.19
                                                                           1.21
                                                                           0.02
                                                                            1.7
                                                                           0.61
                                                                           34.2
                                                                           0.43

Summer
                                                                            515
                                                                           1.65
                                                                           1.50
                                                                          -0.15
                                                                           -9.0
                                                                           0.86
                                                                           30.5
                                                                           0.67

Fall
                                                                            499
                                                                           1.23
                                                                           1.22
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -0.9
                                                                           0.62
                                                                           31.0
                                                                           0.67

Annual
                                                                           2050
                                                                           1.35
                                                                           1.27
                                                                          -0.09
                                                                           -6.3
                                                                           0.74
                                                                           32.7
                                                                           0.61

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            192
                                                                           1.07
                                                                           0.89
                                                                          -0.18
                                                                          -16.7
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           30.9
                                                                           0.69

Spring
                                                                            213
                                                                           1.16
                                                                           0.95
                                                                          -0.22
                                                                          -18.6
                                                                           0.53
                                                                           28.9
                                                                           0.56

Summer
                                                                            211
                                                                           1.48
                                                                           1.12
                                                                          -0.36
                                                                          -24.5
                                                                           0.67
                                                                           33.9
                                                                           0.73

Fall
                                                                            202
                                                                           1.27
                                                                           1.04
                                                                          -0.23
                                                                          -17.8
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           28.1
                                                                           0.80

Annual
                                                                            818
                                                                           1.25
                                                                           1.00
                                                                          -0.25
                                                                          -19.8
                                                                           0.55
                                                                           30.6
                                                                           0.72
                                 Upper Midwest
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            278
                                                                           1.03
                                                                           1.10
                                                                           0.07
                                                                            7.0
                                                                           0.53
                                                                           33.8
                                                                           0.73

Spring
                                                                            292
                                                                           0.93
                                                                           1.15
                                                                           0.22
                                                                           24.1
                                                                           0.47
                                                                           39.5
                                                                           0.71

Summer
                                                                            275
                                                                           1.04
                                                                           1.08
                                                                           0.04
                                                                            3.5
                                                                           0.47
                                                                           33.4
                                                                           0.82

Fall
                                                                            280
                                                                           0.76
                                                                           1.00
                                                                           0.24
                                                                           31.7
                                                                           0.56
                                                                           48.3
                                                                           0.77

Annual
                                                                           1125
                                                                           0.94
                                                                           1.08
                                                                           0.14
                                                                           15.4
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           38.1
                                                                           0.75

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            194
                                                                           0.76
                                                                           0.71
                                                                          -0.05
                                                                           -6.9
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           27.6
                                                                           0.83

Spring
                                                                            208
                                                                           0.76
                                                                           0.75
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.4
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           30.3
                                                                           0.71

Summer
                                                                            210
                                                                           0.68
                                                                           0.59
                                                                          -0.10
                                                                          -14.3
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           31.0
                                                                           0.88

Fall
                                                                            210
                                                                           0.63
                                                                           0.61
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.8
                                                                           0.34
                                                                           35.3
                                                                           0.79

Annual
                                                                            822
                                                                           0.71
                                                                           0.66
                                                                          -0.04
                                                                           -6.1
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           30.9
                                                                           0.81
                                     South
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            258
                                                                           0.99
                                                                           1.12
                                                                           0.12
                                                                           12.5
                                                                           0.63
                                                                           39.9
                                                                           0.60

Spring
                                                                            273
                                                                           1.16
                                                                           1.08
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                           -7.3
                                                                           0.84
                                                                           38.6
                                                                           0.63

Summer
                                                                            264
                                                                           1.49
                                                                           1.07
                                                                          -0.42
                                                                          -28.3
                                                                           0.81
                                                                           39.9
                                                                           0.46

Fall
                                                                            257
                                                                           1.31
                                                                           1.24
                                                                          -0.07
                                                                           -5.3
                                                                           0.61
                                                                           32.0
                                                                           0.67

Annual
                                                                           1052
                                                                           1.24
                                                                           1.12
                                                                          -0.11
                                                                           -9.2
                                                                           0.73
                                                                           37.5
                                                                           0.56

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            212
                                                                           0.75
                                                                           0.78
                                                                           0.03
                                                                            4.2
                                                                           0.38
                                                                           34.2
                                                                           0.73

Spring
                                                                            242
                                                                           0.97
                                                                           0.80
                                                                          -0.17
                                                                          -17.1
                                                                           0.65
                                                                           38.5
                                                                           0.60

Summer
                                                                            221
                                                                           1.42
                                                                           0.77
                                                                          -0.65
                                                                          -45.5
                                                                           0.91
                                                                           48.4
                                                                           0.55

Fall
                                                                            234
                                                                           1.10
                                                                           0.89
                                                                          -0.21
                                                                          -19.1
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           33.1
                                                                           0.73

Annual
                                                                            909
                                                                           1.06
                                                                           0.81
                                                                          -0.25
                                                                          -23.4
                                                                           0.64
                                                                           39.6
                                                                           0.59
                                   Southwest
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            189
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           0.01
                                                                            1.9
                                                                           0.72
                                                                           74.3
                                                                           0.19

Spring
                                                                            195
                                                                           0.40
                                                                           0.67
                                                                           0.27
                                                                           68.7
                                                                           0.36
                                                                           77.6
                                                                           0.38

Summer
                                                                            192
                                                                           0.70
                                                                           0.49
                                                                          -0.22
                                                                          -30.7
                                                                           0.45
                                                                           45.2
                                                                           0.13

Fall
                                                                            200
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           0.52
                                                                           0.02
                                                                            3.0
                                                                           0.28
                                                                           45.1
                                                                           0.35

Annual
                                                                            776
                                                                           0.53
                                                                           0.55
                                                                           0.02
                                                                            4.1
                                                                           0.48
                                                                           58.1
                                                                           0.13

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            829
                                                                           0.25
                                                                           0.39
                                                                           0.14
                                                                           57.0
                                                                           0.37
                                                                           83.1
                                                                           0.36

Spring
                                                                            909
                                                                           0.39
                                                                           0.62
                                                                           0.23
                                                                           60.3
                                                                           0.35
                                                                           70.8
                                                                           0.47

Summer
                                                                            900
                                                                           0.65
                                                                           0.40
                                                                          -0.25
                                                                          -38.3
                                                                           0.48
                                                                           49.3
                                                                           0.32

Fall
                                                                            877
                                                                           0.47
                                                                           0.40
                                                                          -0.07
                                                                          -14.7
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           45.4
                                                                           0.38

Annual
                                                                           3515
                                                                           0.44
                                                                           0.45
                                                                           0.01
                                                                            3.1
                                                                           0.38
                                                                           57.7
                                                                           0.28
                               N. Rockies &
                                    Plains
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            141
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           0.62
                                                                           0.11
                                                                           21.0
                                                                           0.46
                                                                           54.4
                                                                           0.70

Spring
                                                                            145
                                                                           0.54
                                                                           0.65
                                                                           0.11
                                                                           20.5
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           45.7
                                                                           0.68

Summer
                                                                            135
                                                                           0.54
                                                                           0.55
                                                                           0.01
                                                                            1.5
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           37.5
                                                                           0.79

Fall
                                                                            139
                                                                           0.47
                                                                           0.55
                                                                           0.08
                                                                           17.5
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           43.8
                                                                           0.80

Annual
                                                                            560
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           0.59
                                                                           0.08
                                                                           15.2
                                                                           0.35
                                                                           45.4
                                                                           0.73

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            542
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           0.42
                                                                           0.10
                                                                           31.3
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           66.1
                                                                           0.73

Spring
                                                                            573
                                                                           0.38
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           0.13
                                                                           34.0
                                                                           0.25
                                                                           53.3
                                                                           0.67

Summer
                                                                            603
                                                                           0.36
                                                                           0.40
                                                                           0.04
                                                                           10.0
                                                                           0.21
                                                                           42.2
                                                                           0.54

Fall
                                                                            574
                                                                           0.34
                                                                           0.40
                                                                           0.06
                                                                           17.7
                                                                           0.26
                                                                           48.8
                                                                           0.70

Annual
                                                                           2292
                                                                           0.35
                                                                           0.43
                                                                           0.08
                                                                           22.9
                                                                           0.25
                                                                           52.0
                                                                           0.67
                                   Northwest
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            129
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           0.57
                                                                           0.27
                                                                           92.1
                                                                           0.51
                                                                          119.4
                                                                           0.21

Spring
                                                                            135
                                                                           0.38
                                                                           0.73
                                                                           0.36
                                                                           93.6
                                                                           0.47
                                                                           97.7
                                                                           0.64

Summer
                                                                            135
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           0.60
                                                                           0.10
                                                                           20.8
                                                                           0.34
                                                                           53.8
                                                                           0.44

Fall
                                                                            134
                                                                           0.34
                                                                           0.59
                                                                           0.24
                                                                           70.7
                                                                           0.42
                                                                           93.6
                                                                           0.39

Annual
                                                                            533
                                                                           0.38
                                                                           0.62
                                                                           0.24
                                                                           64.0
                                                                           0.44
                                                                           86.3
                                                                           0.38

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            405
                                                                           0.15
                                                                           0.26
                                                                           0.11
                                                                           75.6
                                                                           0.20
                                                                           97.5
                                                                           0.65

Spring
                                                                            474
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           0.19
                                                                           61.2
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           69.4
                                                                           0.73

Summer
                                                                            488
                                                                           0.35
                                                                           0.39
                                                                           0.04
                                                                           11.8
                                                                           0.23
                                                                           48.9
                                                                           0.45

Fall
                                                                            471
                                                                           0.24
                                                                           0.33
                                                                           0.09
                                                                           38.0
                                                                           0.24
                                                                           71.2
                                                                           0.62

Annual
                                                                           1838
                                                                           0.27
                                                                           0.37
                                                                           0.11
                                                                           40.5
                                                                           0.24
                                                                           66.2
                                                                           0.62
                                     West
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            246
                                                                           0.46
                                                                           0.61
                                                                           0.15
                                                                           33.1
                                                                           0.44
                                                                           70.5
                                                                           0.35

Spring
                                                                            257
                                                                           0.76
                                                                           0.80
                                                                           0.04
                                                                            5.1
                                                                           0.53
                                                                           49.5
                                                                           0.44

Summer
                                                                            258
                                                                           1.31
                                                                           0.74
                                                                          -0.58
                                                                          -43.9
                                                                           1.25
                                                                           51.1
                                                                           0.35

Fall
                                                                            235
                                                                           0.77
                                                                           0.65
                                                                          -0.12
                                                                          -16.1
                                                                           0.52
                                                                           47.2
                                                                           0.49

Annual
                                                                            996
                                                                           0.83
                                                                           0.70
                                                                          -0.13
                                                                          -15.8
                                                                           0.77
                                                                           52.5
                                                                           0.37

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            510
                                                                           0.22
                                                                           0.38
                                                                           0.16
                                                                           74.2
                                                                           0.33
                                                                          104.3
                                                                           0.36

Spring
                                                                            549
                                                                           0.51
                                                                           0.61
                                                                           0.10
                                                                           20.5
                                                                           0.36
                                                                           53.8
                                                                           0.39

Summer
                                                                            548
                                                                           0.74
                                                                           0.52
                                                                          -0.22
                                                                          -30.2
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           47.6
                                                                           0.36

Fall
                                                                            527
                                                                           0.47
                                                                           0.44
                                                                          -0.03
                                                                           -6.0
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           47.1
                                                                           0.45

Annual
                                                                           2134
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           0.00
                                                                            0.3
                                                                           0.38
                                                                           55.2
                                                                           0.39

Table 2A-4	CMAQ Performance Statistics for PM2.5 Nitrate at CSN and IMPROVE Sites in 2016
                                    Region
                                    Network
                                    Season
                                       N
                                     Avg.
                                     Obs.
                                 (g m[-3])
                                     Avg.
                                     Mod.
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      MB
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      NMB
                                      (%)
                                     RMSE
                                 (g m[-3])
                                      NME
                                      (%)
                                       r
                                   Northeast
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            696
                                                                           1.72
                                                                           2.44
                                                                           0.72
                                                                           42.1
                                                                           1.55
                                                                           61.7
                                                                           0.74

Spring
                                                                            741
                                                                           0.86
                                                                           0.84
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.7
                                                                           0.72
                                                                           55.6
                                                                           0.77

Summer
                                                                            736
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           0.21
                                                                          -0.12
                                                                          -36.2
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           62.2
                                                                           0.52

Fall
                                                                            705
                                                                           0.64
                                                                           0.72
                                                                           0.08
                                                                           12.0
                                                                           0.65
                                                                           61.0
                                                                           0.66

Annual
                                                                           2878
                                                                           0.88
                                                                           1.04
                                                                           0.16
                                                                           18.3
                                                                           0.92
                                                                           60.1
                                                                           0.79

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            349
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           1.05
                                                                           0.56
                                                                          113.3
                                                                           0.99
                                                                          127.3
                                                                           0.66

Spring
                                                                            387
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           0.00
                                                                            1.3
                                                                           0.40
                                                                           65.7
                                                                           0.61

Summer
                                                                            396
                                                                           0.15
                                                                           0.20
                                                                           0.05
                                                                           31.1
                                                                           0.26
                                                                           91.3
                                                                           0.40

Fall
                                                                            375
                                                                           0.22
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           0.07
                                                                           32.1
                                                                           0.35
                                                                           82.5
                                                                           0.57

Annual
                                                                           1507
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           0.45
                                                                           0.16
                                                                           55.2
                                                                           0.56
                                                                           96.6
                                                                           0.62
                                   Southeast
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            456
                                                                           0.68
                                                                           1.33
                                                                           0.66
                                                                           97.0
                                                                           1.15
                                                                          112.4
                                                                           0.64

Spring
                                                                            490
                                                                           0.37
                                                                           0.37
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.5
                                                                           0.41
                                                                           63.1
                                                                           0.60

Summer
                                                                            463
                                                                           0.20
                                                                           0.22
                                                                           0.02
                                                                            9.2
                                                                           0.21
                                                                           70.8
                                                                           0.35

Fall
                                                                            450
                                                                           0.33
                                                                           0.43
                                                                           0.11
                                                                           32.8
                                                                           0.46
                                                                           76.6
                                                                           0.62

Annual
                                                                           1859
                                                                           0.39
                                                                           0.58
                                                                           0.19
                                                                           48.4
                                                                           0.66
                                                                           87.6
                                                                           0.68

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            342
                                                                           0.49
                                                                           0.63
                                                                           0.14
                                                                           27.5
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           70.9
                                                                           0.60

Spring
                                                                            379
                                                                           0.34
                                                                           0.26
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                          -24.1
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           56.2
                                                                           0.42

Summer
                                                                            394
                                                                           0.19
                                                                           0.19
                                                                           0.01
                                                                            4.1
                                                                           0.16
                                                                           59.5
                                                                           0.44

Fall
                                                                            366
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           0.28
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -3.7
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           61.9
                                                                           0.61

Annual
                                                                           1481
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           0.33
                                                                           0.01
                                                                            3.0
                                                                           0.33
                                                                           63.2
                                                                           0.61
                                  Ohio Valley
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            510
                                                                           2.41
                                                                           2.37
                                                                          -0.04
                                                                           -1.8
                                                                           1.63
                                                                           43.5
                                                                           0.59

Spring
                                                                            526
                                                                           0.91
                                                                           0.87
                                                                          -0.03
                                                                           -3.5
                                                                           1.04
                                                                           64.7
                                                                           0.44

Summer
                                                                            515
                                                                           0.37
                                                                           0.37
                                                                           0.00
                                                                            1.0
                                                                           0.48
                                                                           78.3
                                                                           0.27

Fall
                                                                            499
                                                                           0.82
                                                                           0.84
                                                                           0.02
                                                                            2.7
                                                                           0.81
                                                                           58.4
                                                                           0.59

Annual
                                                                           2050
                                                                           1.13
                                                                           1.11
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.1
                                                                           1.08
                                                                           53.4
                                                                           0.69

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            192
                                                                           1.31
                                                                           1.07
                                                                          -0.24
                                                                          -18.5
                                                                           1.15
                                                                           55.2
                                                                           0.54

Spring
                                                                            213
                                                                           0.53
                                                                           0.32
                                                                          -0.21
                                                                          -39.2
                                                                           0.65
                                                                           59.4
                                                                           0.60

Summer
                                                                            211
                                                                           0.19
                                                                           0.18
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -5.5
                                                                           0.21
                                                                           68.0
                                                                           0.32

Fall
                                                                            202
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           0.37
                                                                          -0.13
                                                                          -26.1
                                                                           0.60
                                                                           62.4
                                                                           0.55

Annual
                                                                            818
                                                                           0.62
                                                                           0.47
                                                                          -0.15
                                                                          -23.5
                                                                           0.72
                                                                           58.6
                                                                           0.64
                                 Upper Midwest
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            278
                                                                           2.76
                                                                           2.72
                                                                          -0.04
                                                                           -1.5
                                                                           1.54
                                                                           37.6
                                                                           0.75

Spring
                                                                            292
                                                                           1.15
                                                                           1.14
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -1.1
                                                                           1.27
                                                                           58.0
                                                                           0.52

Summer
                                                                            275
                                                                           0.35
                                                                           0.36
                                                                           0.01
                                                                            3.8
                                                                           0.55
                                                                           85.8
                                                                           0.27

Fall
                                                                            280
                                                                           0.81
                                                                           0.82
                                                                           0.01
                                                                            1.1
                                                                           0.87
                                                                           55.9
                                                                           0.65

Annual
                                                                           1125
                                                                           1.27
                                                                           1.26
                                                                          -0.01
                                                                           -0.6
                                                                           1.12
                                                                           48.6
                                                                           0.77

                                    IMPROVE
Winter
                                                                            194
                                                                           1.44
                                                                           1.11
                                                                          -0.34
                                                                          -23.3
                                                                           1.32
                                                                           49.9
                                                                           0.66

Spring
                                                                            208
                                                                           0.58
                                                                           0.35
                                                                          -0.22
                                                                          -38.3
                                                                           0.78
                                                                           58.6
                                                                           0.67

Summer
                                                                            210
                                                                           0.12
                                                                           0.14
                                                                           0.02
                                                                           20.5
                                                                           0.16
                                                                           75.5
                                                                           0.55

Fall
                                                                            210
                                                                           0.33
                                                                           0.27
                                                                          -0.06
                                                                          -18.1
                                                                           0.50
                                                                           65.4
                                                                           0.52

Annual
                                                                            822
                                                                           0.60
                                                                           0.46
                                                                          -0.14
                                                                          -24.0
                                                                           0.80
                                                                           55.5
                                                                           0.72
                                     South
                                      CSN
Winter
                                                                            258
                                                                           0.97
                                                                           1.02
                                                                           0.06
                                                                            5.8
                                                                           0.85
                                                                           53.7
                                                                           0.63

Spring
                                                                            273
                                                                           0.35
                                                                           0.30
                                                                          -0.06
                                                                          -16.1
                                                                           0.36
                                                                           61.9
                                                                           0.52

Summer
                                                                            264