[Federal Register Volume 76, Number 180 (Friday, September 16, 2011)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 57872-57896]
[FR Doc No: 2011-23659]

Vol. 76

Friday,

No. 180

September 16, 2011

Part IV

Environmental Protection Agency

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40 CFR Part 52

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South Coast;
Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard; Proposed Rule

Federal Register / Vol. 76 , No. 180 / Friday, September 16, 2011 /
Proposed Rules

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2011-0622; FRL-9464-8]

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South
Coast; Attainment Plan for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve state implementation plan (SIP)
revisions submitted by California to provide for attainment of the 1997
8-hour ozone national ambient air quality standards in the Los Angeles-
South Coast Area (South Coast). These SIP revisions are the South Coast
2007 Air Quality Management Plan (South Coast 2007 AQMP) (revised 2011)
and South Coast-related portions of the 2007 State Strategy (revised
2009 and 2011). EPA is proposing to approve the emissions inventories,
reasonably available control measures, provisions for transportation
control strategies and measures, reasonable further progress (RFP) and
attainment demonstrations, transportation conformity motor vehicle
emissions budgets for all RFP milestone years and the attainment year,
contingency measures for failure to make RFP or attain, and Clean Air
Act section 182(e)(5) new technologies provisions and associated
commitment to adopt contingency measures. EPA is also proposing to
approve commitments to measures and reductions by the South Coast Air
Quality Management District and the California Air Resources Board.
Simultaneously and in the alternative, EPA is proposing to disapprove
the SIP with respect to certain provisions for transportation control
strategies and measures pending resolution of petitions filed before
the 9th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Association of Irritated
Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th Cir. 2011).

DATES: Any comments must be submitted by October 17, 2011.

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-OAR-
2011-0622, by one of the following methods:
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov.
Follow the on-line instructions.
     E-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS>     Mail or deliver: Marty Robin, Office of Air Planning (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IX, 75 Hawthorne
Street, San Francisco, CA 94105.
    Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket
without change and may be made available online at http://www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided,
unless the comment includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or
other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Information that you consider CBI or otherwise protected should be
clearly identified as such and should not be submitted through http://www.regulations.gov or e-mail. The http://www.regulations.gov Web site
is an ``anonymous access'' system, and EPA will not know your identity
or contact information unless you provide it in the body of your
comment. If you send e-mail directly to EPA, your e-mail address will
be automatically captured and included as part of the public comment.
If EPA cannot read your comments due to technical difficulties and
cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to consider
your comment.
    Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available
electronically on the http://www.regulations.gov Web site and in hard
copy at EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, California,
94105. While all documents in the docket are listed in the index, some
information may be publicly available only at the hard copy location
(e.g., copyrighted material), and some may not be publicly available at
either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please
schedule an appointment during normal business hours with the contact
listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section below.
    Copies of the SIP materials are also available for inspection at
the following locations:
     California Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento,
California 95812, and
     South Coast Air Quality Management District, 21865 E.
Copley Drive, Diamond Bar, California 91765.

The SIP materials are also electronically available at: http://aqmd.gov/aqmp/07aqmp/index.html and http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX,<PHONE_NUMBER>,
<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and
``our'' refer to EPA.

Table of Contents

I. The 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS)
and the South Coast Nonattainment Area
    A. Background on the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
    B. The South Coast 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for Ozone Nonattainment SIPs
III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address 8-
Hour Ozone Nonattainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area
    A. California's SIP Submittals
    B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP
Submissions
IV. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion
of the Revised 2007 State Strategy
    A. Emission Inventories
    B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Demonstration
and Control Strategy
    C. Attainment Demonstration
    D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
    E. Transportation Control Strategies and Transportation Control
Measures and Vehicle Miles Travelled Offset To Offset Emissions
Increases From VMT Increases, To Provide for RFP and Attainment
    F. Contingency Measures
    G. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
    H. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
V. EPA's Proposed Actions
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. The 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and
the South Coast Nonattainment Area

A. Background on the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

    Ground-level ozone is formed when oxides of nitrogen
(NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) react in the
presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants, referred to as ozone
precursors, are emitted by many types of pollution sources, including
on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden
equipment and paints.
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    \1\ California plans sometimes use the term Reactive Organic
Gases (ROG) for VOC. These terms are essentially synonymous. For
simplicity, we use the term VOC herein to mean either VOC or ROG.
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    Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases. Ozone

exposure also has been associated with increased susceptibility to
respiratory infections, medication use, doctor visits, and emergency
department visits and hospital admissions for individuals with lung
disease. Ozone exposure also increases the risk of premature death from
heart or lung disease. Children are at increased risk from exposure to
ozone because their lungs are still developing and they are more likely
to be active outdoors, which increases their exposure. See ``Fact
Sheet, Proposal To Revise the National Ambient Air Quality Standards
for Ozone,'' January 6, 2010 and 75 FR 2938 (January 19, 2010).
    In 1979, under section 109 of the CAA, EPA established primary and
secondary national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or standard)
for ozone at 0.12 parts per million (ppm) averaged over a 1-hour
period. See 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).
    On July 18, 1997, EPA revised the primary and secondary NAAQS for
ozone to set the acceptable level of ozone in the ambient air at 0.08
ppm, averaged over an 8-hour period. See 62 FR 38856 (July 18,
1997).\2\ EPA set the 8-hour ozone standard based on scientific
evidence demonstrating that ozone causes adverse health effects at
lower concentrations and over longer periods of time than was
understood when the pre-existing 1-hour ozone standard was set. EPA
determined that the 8-hour standard would be more protective of human
health, especially children and adults who are active outdoors, and
individuals with a pre-existing respiratory disease, such as asthma.
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    \2\ In March 2008, EPA completed another review of the primary
and secondary ozone standards and tightened them further by lowering
the level for both to 0.075 ppm. 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008).
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B. The South Coast 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

    Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, EPA is required
by the Clean Air Act (CAA) to designate areas throughout the nation as
attaining or not attaining the NAAQS. On April 15, 2004, EPA designated
the South Coast as nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard and
classified it as ``severe-17'' under CAA section 181(a)(1) and 40 CFR
51.903(a), Table 1. See 69 FR 23858 at 23888-89 (April 30, 2004) and 40
CFR 81.305. The designations and classifications became effective on
June 15, 2004.
    In 2007, California requested that EPA reclassify the South Coast
from ``severe-17'' to ``extreme'' nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour
ozone standard under CAA section 181(b)(3).\3\ We granted California's
request on May 5, 2010 and reclassified the South Coast to extreme
nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard effective June 4,
2010. See 75 FR 24409. The South Coast 2007 AQMP was developed to
address the extreme area planning requirements for the 1997 8-hour
ozone standard in the CAA and EPA's implementing regulations and thus
California did not need to make additional submittals in response to
this reclassification.
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    \3\ See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution No. 07-9 (June 1,
2007), p. 12; CARB Resolution No. 07-41 (September 27, 2007), p. 8;
and letter, James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne
Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, November 28, 2007.
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    The South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area is home to about 17
million people, has a diverse economic base, and contains one of the
highest-volume port areas in the world. For a precise description of
the geographic boundaries of the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment
area, see 40 CFR 81.305. The local air district with primary
responsibility for developing a plan to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone
NAAQS in this area is the South Coast Air Quality Management District
(District or SCAQMD).
    Ambient 8-hour ozone levels in the South Coast are well above the
1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. The maximum design value for the area, based
on monitored readings at the Crestline monitor, is 0.112 ppm for the
2008-2010 period.\4\
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    \4\ See EPA, Air Quality System Quick Look Report dated April
14, 2011 in the docket for today's action. A design value is an
ambient concentration calculated using a specific methodology to
evaluate monitored air quality data and is used to determine whether
an area's air quality is meeting a NAAQS. The methodology for
calculating design values for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS is found in 40
CFR part 50, Appendix I. This value is preliminary because while
2008 and 2009 data are complete, validated, and certified, 2010 data
have not yet been certified by the District.
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II. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for Ozone Nonattainment SIPs

    States must implement the 1997 8-hour ozone standard under Title 1,
Part D of the CAA, which includes section 172, ``Nonattainment plan
provisions,'' and subpart 2, ``Additional Provisions for Ozone
Nonattainment Areas'' (sections 181-185).
    In order to assist states in developing effective plans to address
their ozone nonattainment problem, EPA issued the 8-hour ozone
implementation rule. This rule was finalized in two phases. The first
phase of the rule addresses classifications for the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard, applicable attainment dates for the various classifications,
and the timing of emissions reductions needed for attainment. See 69 FR
23951 (April 30, 2004). The second phase addresses SIP submittal dates
and the requirements for reasonably available control technology and
measures (RACT and RACM), reasonable further progress (RFP), modeling
and attainment demonstrations, contingency measures, and new source
review. See 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). The rule is codified at 40
CFR part 51, subpart X.\5\ We discuss each of these CAA and regulatory
requirements for 8-hour ozone nonattainment plans in more detail below.
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    \5\ EPA has revised or proposed to revise several elements of
the 8-hour ozone implementation rule since its initial promulgation
in 2004. See, e.g., 74 FR 2936 (January 16, 2009); 75 FR 51960
(August 24, 2010); and 75 FR 80420 (December 22, 2010). None of
these revisions affect any provision of the rule that is applicable
to EPA's proposed actions on the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone Plan.
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III. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address 8-
Hour Ozone Nonattainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area

A. California's SIP Submittals

    Designation of an area as nonattainment starts the process for a
state to develop and submit to EPA a State implementation plan (SIP)
providing for attainment of the NAAQS under title 1, part D of the CAA.
For 8-hour ozone areas designated as nonattainment effective June 15,
2004, this attainment SIP was due by June 15, 2007. See CAA 172(b) and
40 CFR 51.908(a) and 51.910.
    California has made five SIP submittals to address the CAA's
planning requirements for attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in
the South Coast nonattainment area. We refer to these submittals
collectively as ``the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone SIP'' or ``the
South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP.'' The two principal ones are the District's
2007 8-Hour Ozone Plan (South Coast 2007 AQMP) and the California Air
Resources Board's (CARB's) State Strategy for California's 2007 State
Implementation Plan (2007 State Strategy).
1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
    The ``Final 2007 Air Quality Management Plan, June 2007'' (South
Coast 2007 AQMP) was adopted by the District on June 1, 2007 and
submitted to CARB on October 24, 2007.6 7 On

November 28, 2007, CARB submitted the South Coast 2007 AQMP to EPA. The
South Coast 2007 AQMP includes an 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration
for the South Coast nonattainment area, commitments by the SCAQMD to
adopt control measures to achieve emissions reductions from sources
under its jurisdiction (primarily stationary sources), and motor
vehicle emissions budgets (budgets) used for transportation conformity
purposes. The attainment demonstration includes air quality modeling,
an analysis of CAA section 172 reasonably available control measures
(RACM), base year and projected year emissions inventories, and
contingency measures.
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    \6\ See November 28, 2007 letter to Wayne Nastri, Regional
Administrator, EPA Region 9, from James N. Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB, with enclosures.
    \7\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP is the first South Coast Plan to
address the 8-hour ozone NAAQS. We have previously acted on numerous
South Coast air quality plans for ozone, PM-10, carbon monoxide, and
NO2, such as the 1997/1999 AQMP. We approved the ozone
portion of the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as amended in 1999, on April
10, 2000 (see 65 FR 18903). Our most recent action on a SIP
addressing the CAA requirements for the South Coast ozone
nonattainment area was our partial approval and partial disapproval
of the 2003 AQMP, which addressed 1-hour ozone (see 74 FR 10176,
March 10, 2009). Our 2009 final action was challenged in the Ninth
Circuit Court of Appeals, which published an opinion remanding
certain aspects of EPA's action for further action consistent with
the opinion. See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d
584 (9th Cir. 2011). The issues in dispute relate to the
consequences of an EPA disapproval of a SIP submittal, the adequacy
of EPA's evaluation of a particular control measure from the 2003
State Strategy, and the rationale for EPA's approval of the State's
submittal as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A)
(TCMs to offset growth in emissions from growth in VMT) in the South
Coast. EPA has sought rehearing on some of the issues, and the
mandate in this case has not yet been issued pending action by the
court on the petition for rehearing.
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    In today's proposal, we are evaluating only those portions of the
South Coast 2007 AQMP and its revisions that are relevant to attainment
of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast.
2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
    To demonstrate attainment, the South Coast 2007 AQMP relies to a
large extent on measures and commitments in CARB's 2007 State Strategy.
The 2007 State Strategy was adopted by CARB on September 27, 2007 and
submitted to EPA on November 16, 2007.\8\ It describes CARB's overall
approach to addressing, in conjunction with local plans, attainment of
both the 1997 8-hour ozone and fine particulate (PM2.5)
NAAQS not only in the South Coast nonattainment area but also in the
San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento area. It also includes CARB's
commitments to propose 15 defined State measures \9\ and to obtain
specific amounts of aggregate emissions reductions of NOX
and VOC emissions in the South Coast from sources under the State's
jurisdiction, primarily on- and off-road motor vehicles and engines. In
addition, it contains an RFP demonstration and contingency measures for
the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area.
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    \8\ See CARB Resolution No. 07-28, September 27, 2007 with
attachments and letter from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer,
CARB, to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9,
November 16, 2007 with enclosures.
    \9\ The 2007 State Strategy also includes measures to be
implemented by the California Bureau of Automotive Repair (Smog
Check improvements) and the California Department of Pesticide
Regulation (VOC reductions from pesticide use). See 2007 State
Strategy, pp. 64-65 and CARB Resolution 7-28, Attachment B, p. 8.
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    On August 12, 2009, CARB submitted the ``Status Report on the State
Strategy for California's 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP) and
Proposed Revision to the SIP Reflecting Implementation of the 2007
State Strategy,'' dated March 24, 2009 and adopted April 24, 2009
(``2009 State Strategy Status Report'').\10\ This submittal updated the
2007 State Strategy to reflect its implementation during 2007 and 2008.
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    \10\ See CARB Resolution No. 09-34, April 24, 2009 and letter,
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Wayne Nastri,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, August 12, 2009 with
enclosures. Only pages 11-27 of the 2009 State Strategy Status
Report are submitted as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is
for informational purposes only. See Attachment A to CARB Resolution
No. 09-34.
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    In today's proposal, we are evaluating only those portions of the
2007 State Strategy and its revisions that are relevant to attainment
of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast.
3. CARB's 2011 SIP Revisions
    On May 18, 2011, CARB submitted a SIP revision entitled Progress
Report on Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans
(SIP) for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and
Proposed SIP Revisions, dated March 29, 2011 and adopted April 28,
2011, together with the adopting resolution and other supporting
documentation 11 12 (2011 Progress Report). Appendix F of
this 2011 Progress Report provides revised control measure commitments
and a revised rule implementation schedule for the South Coast 2007
AQMP.\13\ We refer to this SIP revision as the ``2011 Progress Report,
Appendix F.''
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    \11\ See CARB Board Resolution 11-24, April 28, 2011 and letter,
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, May 18, 2011 with enclosures.
    \12\ Only Appendices B, C, and D of the 2011 Progress Report are
submitted as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is for
informational purposes only. See letter, James Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region 9, May 18, 2011.
    \13\ See letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive Officer, CARB, to
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated May
19, 2011, and enclosed ARB Board Resolution 11-24.
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    On July 29, 2011, CARB submitted the ``8-Hour Ozone State
Implementation Plan Revisions and Technical Revisions to the
PM2.5 State Implementation Plan Transportation Conformity
Budgets for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,'' dated
June 20, 2011 and adopted July 21, 2011 (2011 Ozone SIP Revision).\14\
This SIP revision updates the 2007 State Strategy and 2009 State
Strategy Status Report. Specifically, it updates the emissions
inventories, RFP demonstration, contingency measures, and
transportation conformity budgets for the South Coast to reflect rule
adoptions and improvements to emissions estimates. CARB provided
supplemental documentation for the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision on August
10, 2011 (2011 Ozone SIP Supplement).\15\
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    \14\ See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011 and letter, James
N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional
Administrator, EPA Region 9, July 29, 2011 with enclosures. Only
Appendix A of the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision is submitted as a SIP
revision. The balance of the report is for informational purposes
only.
    \15\ See letter, Lynn Terry, Executive Officer, CARB, to Deborah
Jordan, Director, Region 9 Air Division, dated August 10, 2011 with
attachments.
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    Future references in this proposal to the 2007 State Strategy and
to the South Coast 2007 AQMP will be to the State Strategy as revised
in 2009 and 2011, and the AQMP as revised in 2011, respectively, unless
otherwise noted.

B. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP Submissions

    CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing
prior to the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public
hearing was provided consistent with EPA's implementing regulations in
40 CFR 51.102.
    Both the District and CARB have satisfied applicable statutory and
regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior
to adoption and submission of the South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan. The
District conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods,
and held public hearings prior to the adoption of the South Coast 2007
AQMP on June 1, 2007 (See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution No. 07-9).
CARB provided the required public notice and opportunity for public
comment prior to its September 27, 2007 public hearing on the plan. See
CARB Resolution No. 07-41. The District also provided the

required public notice and hearing on its 2011 revision to the 2007
AQMP. See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution 11-9.
    CARB conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods,
and held a public hearing prior to the adoption of the 2007 State
Strategy on September 27, 2007 (See CARB Resolution No. 07-28). CARB
also provided the required public notice, opportunity for public
comment, and a public hearing prior to its April 24, 2009 adoption of
the 2009 State Strategy Status Report. See CARB Resolution 09-34, April
24, 2009. Finally, CARB provided the required public notice,
opportunity for public comment, and a public hearing prior to its April
28, 2011 and July 21, 2011 adoption of the 2011 Progress Report and the
2011 Ozone SIP Revision, respectively. See CARB Resolution 11-11, April
28, 2011, and CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011.
    The SIP submittals include proof of publication for notices of the
District and CARB public hearings, as evidence that all hearings were
properly noticed. We find, therefore, that each of the five submittals
meet the procedural requirements for public notice and hearing in CAA
sections 110(a) and 110(l).
    CAA section 110(k)(1)(B) requires EPA to determine whether a SIP
submittal is complete within 60 days of receipt. This section also
provides that any plan that EPA has not affirmatively determined to be
complete or incomplete will be deemed complete 6 months after the date
of submission by operation of law. EPA's SIP completeness criteria are
found in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix V.
    The November 28, 2007 submittal of the South Coast 2007 AQMP became
complete by operation of law on May 28, 2008. The November 16, 2007
submission of the 2007 State Strategy and the August 12, 2009 revisions
to the Strategy became complete by operation of law on May 16, 2008 and
February 12, 2010, respectively.
    We determined that CARB's 2011 Progress Report submittal of May 18,
2011 was complete on June 13, 2011. See Letter, Deborah Jordan, Air
Division Director, US EPA Region 9, to James Goldstene, Executive
Officer, CARB, dated June 13, 2011. We determined that CARB's 2011
Ozone SIP Update submittal of July 29, 2011 was complete on August 23,
2011.\16\
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    \16\ See Letter, Deborah Jordan, Air Division Director, US EPA
Region 9, to James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, dated August
23, 2011.
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IV. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion of
the Revised 2007 State Strategy

    We provide our evaluation of the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone
SIP's compliance with applicable CAA and EPA regulatory requirements
below. A more detailed evaluation can be found in the technical support
document (TSD) for this proposal, which is available online at http://www.regulations.gov under docket number EPA-R09-OAR-2011-0622, or from
the EPA contact listed at the beginning of this notice.

A. Emissions Inventories

1. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
    CAA section 182(a)(1) requires each state with an ozone
nonattainment area classified under subpart 2 to submit, within two
years of the area's designation as nonattainment, a ``comprehensive,
accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all sources'' of
the relevant pollutant or pollutants in accordance with guidance
provided by EPA. CAA 182(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.915. EPA has issued
``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and
Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulations,'' (EPA-454/R-
05-001), November 2005 (``EI Guidance'') which provides guidance on how
to develop base year and baseline emissions inventories for 8-hour
ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze SIPs.
    For areas that were initially designated nonattainment for the 8-
hour ozone standard in 2004, EPA recommends using calendar year 2002 as
the base year for the inventory required by CAA section 182(a)(1). EI
Guidance, p. 8.
    Emissions inventories for ozone should include emissions of VOC,
NOX, and carbon monoxide (CO) and represent an average
summer week day during the ozone season. EI Guidance, pp. 14 and 17.
States should include documentation in their submittals explaining how
emissions data were calculated. 70 FR 71612 at 71664 and EI Guidance,
p. 40. In estimating mobile source emissions, states should use the
latest emission models and planning assumptions available at the time
the SIP is developed. 66 FR at 32854 and 70 FR 61612, at 71666. For
California, the latest available mobile source emissions model is
EMFAC2007, which EPA approved in 2008 for use in SIPs and
transportation conformity analyses. See 73 FR 3464 (January 18, 2008).
2. Emissions Inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    The base year and future year baseline inventories for ozone
precursors for the South Coast ozone nonattainment area together with
additional documentation for the inventories are found in Chapter 3 and
Appendix III of the South Coast 2007 AQMP.\17\ These inventories
represent average summer day (ozone season) emissions. Inventories are
provided for the base year of 2002; the RFP milestone years of 2008,
2011, 2014, 2017, 2020; and the attainment year of 2023. The projected
baseline inventories include reductions from Federal, State, and
District measures adopted prior to 2007. See South Coast 2007 AQMP,
page 3-1 and 2007 State Strategy, Appendix A, p. 1. All inventories
include emissions from point, area, on-road and non-road sources.
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    \17\ By ``future year baseline inventories'' or ``projected
baseline inventories,'' we mean projected emissions inventories for
future years that account for, among other things, the effects of
economic growth and adopted emissions control requirements.
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    As a starting point for the South Coast 2007 AQMP's inventories,
the District used CARB's inventory for the year 2002. This inventory
and CARB's documentation for its inventories can be found in Appendices
A and F, respectively, of the 2007 State Strategy. The 2002 inventory
for the South Coast nonattainment area was projected to 2005 and future
years using CARB's California Emission Forecasting System (CEFS). Both
base year and projected baseline inventories use the most current
version of California's mobile source emissions model, EMFAC2007, for
estimating on-road motor vehicle emissions. EPA has approved this model
for use in SIPs and transportation conformity analyses. 73 FR 3464
(January 18, 2008). Off-road inventories were developed using the CARB
off-road model.
    As part of its 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, CARB submitted revised base
year and future year baseline inventories for the South Coast
nonattainment area. See Table 1 below. These revised inventories
incorporate improved activity data and/or emission factors for diesel
trucks and buses and off-road equipment that were developed as part of
CARB's December 2010 rulemakings amending its In-Use On-Road Truck and
Bus Rule and In-Use Off-Road Engine rule. The State estimates that
these changes collectively reduce the 2002 base year total inventory in
the South Coast by 5 percent for NOX and less than 2 percent

for VOC.\18\ The projected baseline inventories for subsequent years
were also revised to reflect the ongoing effects of the 2007-2009
economic recession, which has significantly reduced activity levels and
associated emissions from the State's construction and goods movement
sectors. CARB estimates that emissions levels and growth rates will
return to normal levels by the 2017-2018 timeframe. 2011 Ozone SIP
Revision, Appendix B. As a result, projected emission levels from these
categories in the years up to 2017-2018 are now substantially lower
than were originally projected in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007
State Strategy as submitted in November 2007. These recession-related
decreases in emissions do not in themselves affect the Plan's emissions
inventories for the modeling validation years (1997, 2004, and 2005),
the base year (2002), or future years (2020 and 2023), and thus do not
change the carrying capacity estimates in the plan (i.e., they do not
in themselves affect the target level of overall emissions reductions
needed to demonstrate attainment), nor do they alter the 2002 adjusted
baseline emissions, which provide the starting point for the reasonable
further progress demonstration. The principal effect of the recession-
related decreases in projected emissions estimates is to reduce the
amount of reductions needed from the SIP's control strategy to
demonstrate RFP in the years prior to 2018.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \18\ See Appendix A of 2011 Ozone SIP Revision.

                 Table 1--South Coast Base Year and Attainment Year Emissions Inventory Summary
                             [Summer planning inventory emissions in tons per day] a
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Emissions inventory category                        NOx                                 VOC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Year                          2002              2023              2002              2023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary/Areawide Sources.............                89                68               318               273
On-road Mobile Sources..................               652               140               361                98
Off-road Mobile Sources.................               283               170               202               142
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    TOTAL...............................              1024               378               881               513
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Numbers may not add up to precise totals due to rounding. Source: 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, Appendix B, p. B-
  2.

3. Proposed Action on the Base Year Emissions Inventory
    We have reviewed the 2002 base year emissions inventory in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP and the inventory methodologies used by the
District and CARB in developing that inventory and have determined that
the inventory was developed consistent with CAA requirements as
reflected in the 8-hour ozone implementation rule, and EPA's guidance.
The revised 2002 base year inventory is a comprehensive, accurate, and
current inventory of actual emissions of 8-hour ozone precursors in the
South Coast nonattainment area. We therefore propose to approve the
base year inventory as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(a)(1) and EPA's 8-hour ozone implementation rule. 40 CFR 51.915. We
provide detail on our review of the base year inventory in section
II.A. of the TSD for this proposal.

B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Demonstration and
Control Strategy

1. Requirements for RACM and Control Strategy
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan ``provide
for the implementation of all reasonably available control measures as
expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology),
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air
quality standards.'' The 8-hour ozone implementation rule requires that
for each nonattainment area that is required to submit an attainment
demonstration, the state must also submit concurrently a SIP revision
demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM necessary to demonstrate
attainment as expeditiously as practicable and to meet any RFP
requirements. 40 CFR 51.912(d).
    EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM
requirement in the General Preamble at 13560 \19\ and in a memorandum
entitled ``Guidance on Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)
Requirements and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for the Ozone
NAAQS,'' John Seitz, November 30, 1999. (Seitz memo). In summary, EPA
guidance provides that to address the requirement to adopt all RACM,
states should consider all potentially reasonable control measures for
source categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether they
are reasonably available for implementation in that area and whether
they would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the
area's attainment date by one year or more. See Seitz memo and General
Preamble at 13560; see also ``State Implementation Plans; General
Preamble for Proposed Rulemaking on Approval of Plan Revisions for
Nonattainment Areas,'' 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979) and Memorandum dated
December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, ``Additional Submission on RACM from States
with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \19\ The ``General Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,'' published at 57 FR 13498 on
April 16, 1992, describes EPA's preliminary view on how we would
interpret various SIP planning provisions in title I of the CAA as
amended in 1990, including those planning provisions applicable to
the 1-hour ozone standard. EPA continues to rely on certain guidance
in the General Preamble to implement the 8-hour ozone standard under
title I.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements that are
not already either federally promulgated, part of the state's SIP, or
otherwise creditable in SIPs must be submitted in enforceable form as
part of a state's attainment plan for the area. 72 FR 20586, at
20614.\20\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as moderate or
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of RACT
for all major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for
which EPA has issued a Control Techniques Guideline (CTG). CAA
section 182(f) requires that RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply
to major stationary sources of NOX. In extreme areas, a
major source is a stationary source that emits or has the potential
to emit at least 10 tons of VOC or NOX per year. CAA
section 182(e) and (f). Under the 8-hour ozone implementation rule,
states were required to submit SIP revisions meeting the RACT
requirements of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 27
months after designation for the 8-hour ozone standard (September
15, 2006 for areas designated in April 2004) and to implement the
required RACT measures no later than 30 months after that submittal
deadline. See 40 CFR 51.912(a). California submitted the CAA section
182 RACT SIP for the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area on
January 31, 2007, which EPA fully approved on December 18, 2008. See
73 FR 76947.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CAA section 172(c)(6) requires nonattainment plans to ``include
enforceable emission limitations, and such other control measures,
means or techniques (including economic incentives such as fees,
marketable permits, and auctions of emission rights), as well as
schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or
appropriate to provide for attainment of such standard in such area by
the applicable attainment date * * *.'' See also CAA section
110(a)(2)(A). The ozone implementation rule requires that all control
measures needed for attainment be implemented no later than the
beginning of the attainment year ozone season. 40 CFR 51.908(d). The
attainment year ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately
preceding a nonattainment area's attainment date. 40 CFR 51.900(g).
2. RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    For the 2007 Ozone Plan and the 2007 State Strategy, CARB, the
District, and the local agency (through the South Coast's metropolitan
planning organization (MPO), the Southern California Association of
Governments (SCAG)) each undertook a process to identify and evaluate
potential reasonably available control measures that could contribute
to expeditious attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standards in the
South Coast nonattainment area. We describe each agency's efforts
below.
a. District's RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    The District's RACM demonstration, which focuses on stationary and
area source controls, is described in Chapter 6 and Appendix VI of the
South Coast 2007 AQMP. In developing the South Coast 2007 AQMP, the
District conducted a process to identify RACM for the South Coast that
involved public meetings to solicit input, evaluation of EPA's
suggested RACM, and evaluation of other air agencies' regulations. See
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
    To identify potential reasonably available measures for the South
Coast, the District evaluated measures implemented in other
nonattainment areas (including the San Joaquin Valley, the San
Francisco Bay Area, Sacramento, Ventura, Dallas-Fort Worth, and the
Houston-Galveston area) and measures identified by the Lake Michigan
Air Directors Consortium (LADCO), and held meetings with CARB,
technical experts, local government representatives, and the public
during development of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. The District sponsored
an AQMP summit, which generated 200 potential control measures. The
District also reevaluated all 82 of the existing SIP-approved District
rules and regulations.
    From the set of identified potential controls, the District then
screened the identified measures and rejected those that would not
individually or collectively advance attainment in the area, had
already been adopted as rules, or were in the process of being adopted.
The remaining measures were evaluated taking into account baseline
inventories, available control technologies, and potential emission
reductions as well as whether the measure could be implemented on a
schedule that would advance attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard by at least a year, assuming a 2024 deadline. South Coast 2007
AQMP, Appendix VI.
    In general, EPA believes that the District's current rules and
regulations are equivalent to or more stringent with respect to
emissions of ozone precursors than those developed by other air
districts.
    Based on its RACM analysis for stationary and area sources under
its jurisdiction, the District scheduled 15 new or revised stationary
source control measures for development and adoption, including
measures at least as stringent as those identified in other California
districts' AQMPs and several innovative measures. Since submission of
the AQMP in 2007, the District has adopted 13 of these rules and
submitted them to EPA for approval into the SIP. These rules are part
of the District's enforceable commitment to achieve emissions
reductions of 9 tons per day (tpd) of NOX and 19 tpd of VOC
by 2023. As to the few remaining measures that the District rejected
from its RACM analysis, the District determined that these measures
would not advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP due to the
insignificant or unquantifiable emissions reductions they would
potentially generate. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
    The District has made new commitments in its South Coast 2007 AQMP
to achieve specific reductions from VOC and NOX sources in
the South Coast area. The District committed to adopt and submit
measures that will achieve the following additional emissions
reductions by 2023: 9 tpd NOX and 19 tpd VOC. See South
Coast 2007 AQMP, Table 4-2A, page 4-10 and CARB Staff Report on the
South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 13.\21\ The District expects to meet its
emissions reductions commitments for VOC and NOX (see Table
2 below) by adopting new control measures and programs and
strengthening existing control measures, such as those identified in
Table 4-2A of the South Coast 2007 AQMP (see South Coast 2007 AQMP,
page 4-10 and CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 13), and
through the additional actions summarized in the CARB Staff Report on
the South Coast 2007 AQMP (See CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007
AQMP, p. 18). These new or revised control measures include rules to
regulate lubricants, consumer products, non-RECLAIM ovens, dryers and
furnaces, space heaters, facility modernizations, livestock waste, and
residential wood burning. The South Coast 2007 AQMP also identifies 22
measures (beyond the new control measures and additional actions just
discussed) for further review, which may yield additional emission
reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \21\ The CARB Staff Report on the South Coast 2007 AQMP, page
ES-4, incorrectly states the SCAQMD commitments as 19 tpd
NOX and 9 tpd VOC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SCAQMD has committed to adopt and implement control measures that
will achieve the total tonnage of emission reductions identified in
Tables 2 and 3 of Appendix F of the 2011 Progress report. As discussed
above, the District's commitment is to achieve the total tonnage of
reductions of each pollutant by the specified dates. If SCAQMD
determines that a particular measure is infeasible, in whole or in
part, SCAQMD commits to achieve equivalent reductions on the same
schedule through substitute controls. South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 4-73.

   Table 2--District Short and Intermediate Term Control Measures Credited in South Coast 2007 AQMP Attainment
                                        Demonstration, as Revised in 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Emissions reduction    Emissions reductions achieved a
                                                          commitment in South  ---------------------------------
                                                          Coast 2007 AQMP, as
  Control  measure      Rule No.           Title            revised in 2011
                                                       ------------------------      NOX              VOC
                                                            NOX         VOC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BCM-03.............             445  Woodburning        n/a.......  n/a.......  0.1 tpd        0.7 tpd.
                                      fireplaces and
                                      woodstoves.
CTS-01.............            1144  Metalworking       n/a.......  2.0 tpd...  n/a            4.2 tpd.
                                      fluids and
                                      direct-contact
                                      lubricants.
CTS-03 \b\.........  ..............  Consumer Products  n/a.......  n/a.......  n/a            n/a.
                                      Certification
                                      and Emissions
                                      Reductions from
                                      the Use of
                                      Consumer
                                      Products at
                                      Inst. and Comm'l
                                      Facilities.
CTS-04.............            1143  Consumer Paint     n/a.......  n/a.......  n/a            10.1 tpd.
                                      Thinners and
                                      Multi-Purpose
                                      Solvents.
CMB-01.............            1147  NOX reductions     4.1 tpd...  ..........  4.1 tpd        .................
                                      from
                                      miscellaneous
                                      sources.
FUG-02.............             461  Gasoline transfer  n/a.......  4.0 tpd...  n/a            Met via excess
                                      and dispensing.                                           from Rule 1143.
FUG-04.............            1149  Storage Tank and   n/a.......  n/a.......  n/a            0.04 tpd.
                                      Pipeline
                                      Cleaning and
                                      Degassing.
CMB-03.............            1111  Further NOX        1.1 tpd...  n/a.......  3.0 tpd        n/a.
                                      reductions from
                                      space heaters.
MCS-01.............          1110.2  Liquid and         2.2 tpd...  9.2 tpd...  0.54 tpd       0.3 tpd.
                                      gaseous fuels--
                                      stationary ICEs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Measures not yet adopted or not fully approved by EPA \c\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     ..............  .................  NOX.......  VOC.......  .............
MCS-01.............            1146  NOX from           ..........  ..........      Emissions reductions not
                                      industrial,                                   currently creditable; EPA
                                      institutional, &                              proposed limited approval/
                                      commercial                                  limited disapproval published
                                      boilers, steam                              July 8, 2011, see 76 FR 40303.
                                      generators, and
                                      process heaters.
                             1146.1  NOX from small     ..........  ..........      Emissions reductions not
                                      ind, inst, &                                  currently creditable; EPA
                                      comm'l boilers,                               proposed limited approval/
                                      steam gens, and                             limited disapproval published
                                      proc. htrs.                                 July 8, 2011, see 76 FR 40303.
EGM-01.............            2301  Emissions          0.8 tpd...  0.5 tpd...  Scheduled for
                                      reductions from                            adoption in
                                      new or                                     2012.
                                      redevelopment
                                      projects.
MCS-05.............            1127  Livestock waste..  n/a.......  0.6 tpd...  EPA has not
                                                                                yet acted on
                                                                                this rule.
FLX-02.............  ..............  Refinery pilot     n/a.......  1.6 tpd...  Not yet
                                      program.                                   adopted.
MOB-05.............  ..............  AB923 LDV high     0.4 tpd...  0.7 tpd...  No rule
                                      emitter program.                           associated
                                                                                with this
                                                                                measure.
MOB-06.............  ..............  AB923 MDV high     0.6 tpd...  0.6 tpd...  No rule
                                      emitter program.                           associated
                                                                                with this
                                                                                measure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               SIP Commitments and Currently Creditable Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2023 SIP commitment--NOX.............  9.2 tpd NOX............  SIP-creditable           7.7 tpd.
                                                                 reductions--NOX.
2023 SIP commitment--VOC.............  19.3 tpd VOC...........  SIP-creditable           15.3 tpd.
                                                                 reductions--VOC.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ From SCAQMD's 2011 ``Revisions to PM2.5 and Ozone State Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin and
  Coachella Valley,'' which was included as Appendix F in CARB's 2011 Progress Report, Tables 2 and 3, and
  District rule evaluation forms. Some emissions reduction commitments were revised from the information
  originally provided in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.

\b\ Adopted by CARB in November 2010.
\c\ EPA can only credit District rules that have been adopted, submitted to EPA, and approved for credit in the
  SIP.
n/a = not applicable.

                 Table 3--Status of District Rules in the South Coast 2007 AQMP for 8-Hour Ozone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Implementation
               Rule                  Adoption date       date             SIP status       Federal Register cite
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rule 445--Woodburning fireplaces              2008       2008-2014  SIP-approved.........  74 FR 27716, 06/11/
 and woodstoves.                                                                            09.
Rule 461--Gasoline transfer and               2009       2010-2012  SIP-approved.........  71 FR 18216, 04/11/
 dispensing.                                                                                06.
Rule 1149--storage tank and                   2008            2008  SIP-approved.........  74 FR 67821, 12/21/
 pipeline cleaning and degreasing.                                                          09.
Rule 1144--Vanishing oils and rust            2009            2011  Proposed for SIP-      75 FR 41744, 07/15/
 inhibitors.                                                         approval.              11.
Rule 1143--Consumer Paint Thinners            2009            2011  Proposed for SIP-      76 FR 41744, 07/15/
 and Multi-Purpose Solvents.                                         approval.              11.
Rule 1147--NOX reductions from                2008            2010  SIP-approved.........  75 FR 46845, 08/04/
 miscellaneous sources.                                                                     10.
Rule 1111--Further NOX reductions             2009       2012-2043  SIP-approved.........  75 FR 46845, 08/04/
 from space heaters.                                                                        10.
Rule 1110.2--Liquid and gaseous               2008            2011  SIP-approved.........  74 FR 18995, 4/27/09.
 fuels--stationary ICEs.
Rule 1146--NOX from industrial,               2008            2011  Submitted............  Proposed limited
 institutional, commercial                                                                  approval/limited
 boilers, steam generators, and                                                             disapproval 7/8/11,
 process heaters.                                                                           76 FR 40303.
Rule 1146.1--NOX from small                   2008            2011  Submitted............  Proposed limited
 industrial, institutional,                                                                 approval/limited
 commercial boilers, steam                                                                  disapproval 7/8/11,
 generators, and process heaters.                                                           76 FR 40303.
Rule 1127--Livestock Waste........            2006            2011  Submitted to EPA on    Found complete on 10/
                                                                     10/05/06.              25/06.
Refinery Pilot Program............            2008            2010  Not yet adopted......  N/A.
Rule 2301--Indirect Source Review.            2012            2014  Not yet adopted......  N/A.
AB923--Light duty vehicle high                 (a)             (a)  No rule associated     N/A.
 emitter program.                                                    with this measure.
AB923--Light duty vehicle high                 (a)             (a)  No rule associated     N/A.
 emitter program.                                                    with this measure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Ongoing.

b. The Local Jurisdiction's RACM Analysis
    The local jurisdiction's RACM analysis was conducted by the
metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the South Coast region,
the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). This
analysis focused on transportation control measures (TCMs). TCMs are,
in general, measures designed to reduce emissions from on-road motor
vehicles through reductions in vehicle miles traveled or traffic
congestion. SCAG's analysis is described in Appendix IV-C of the South
Coast 2007 AQMP. The TCMs in the South Coast 2007 AQMP are derived from
TCM projects in the 2006 SCAG Regional Transportation Improvement
Program (RTIP). This evaluation, described beginning on page 49 of
Appendix IV-C of the South Coast 2007 AQMP, resulted in extensive local
government commitments to implement programs to reduce auto travel and
improve traffic flow. South Coast 2007 AQMP page 6-6 and Appendix IV-C.
Attachment A to Appendix IV-C contains an extensive list of TCMs under
development and newly scheduled TCMs. See South Cost 2007 AQMP,
Appendix IV-C, p. 39.
    SCAG evaluated a wide variety of transportation control measures,
including those measures listed in CAA section 108(f), and determined
that there were no combinations of reasonable measures that would
advance attainment of the 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast. See
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix IV-C.
c. CARB's RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer
products.
    Given the need for significant emissions reductions from mobile and
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, the
State of California has been a leader in the development of stringent
control measures nationwide for on-road and off-road mobile sources and
the fuels that power them. See, e.g., 2007 State Strategy, p. 37; see
also TSD at Appendix A. California has unique authority under CAA
section 209 (subject to a waiver by EPA) to adopt and implement new
emission standards for many categories of on-road vehicles and engines
and new and in-use off-road vehicles and engines.
    The State is working with EPA on goods movement activities and is
implementing programs to reduce emissions from ship auxiliary engines,
locomotives, harbor craft and new cargo handling equipment. In
addition, the State has standards for lawn and garden equipment,
recreational vehicles and boats, and other off-road sources that
require newly manufactured equipment to be 80-98 percent cleaner than
their uncontrolled counterparts. Id. Finally, the State has adopted
many measures that focus on achieving reductions from in-use mobile
sources that include more stringent inspection and maintenance
requirements in California's Smog

Check program, truck and bus idling restrictions, and various incentive
programs. Appendix A of the TSD includes a list of all measures adopted
by CARB between 1990 and the beginning of 2007. These measures,
reductions from which are reflected in the Plan's baseline inventories,
fall into two categories: measures that are subject to a waiver of
Federal pre-emption under CAA section 209 (section 209 waiver measures
or waiver measures) and those for which the State is not required to
obtain a waiver (non-waiver measures). Emissions reductions from waiver
measures are fully creditable in attainment and RFP demonstrations and
may be used to meet other CAA requirements, such as contingency
measures. See TSD, section II.C. and EPA's proposed and final approval
of the SJV 1-Hour Ozone Plan at 74 FR 33933, 33938 (July 14, 2009) and
75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010). Generally, the State's baseline non-waiver
measures have been approved by EPA into the SIP and are fully
creditable for meeting CAA requirements. See TSD, Appendix A.
    CARB developed its proposed 2007 State Strategy after an extensive
public consultation process to identify potential SIP measures.\22\
Through this process, CARB identified and has committed to develop 15
new or revised control measures. See also the discussion on enforceable
commitments below. These measures focus on cleaning up the in-use fleet
as well as increasing the stringency of emissions standards for a
number of engine categories, fuels, and consumer products. They build
on CARB's existing program, which addresses emissions from all types of
mobile sources through both regulations and incentive programs. See
Appendix A of the TSD. Table 4 lists the defined measures in the 2007
State Strategy and their current adoption and approval status. Table 5
provides the State's current estimate of the expected emissions
reductions from these measures in the attainment year (2023), which
would contribute to achieving the State's aggregate emission reduction
commitment for that year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \22\ More information on this public process including
presentations from the workshops and symposium that preceded the
adoption of the 2007 State Strategy can be found at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm.

          Table 4--2007 State Strategy Defined Measures Scheduled for Consideration and Current Status
                                               [Updated July 2011]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              State measure                          Expected action year                  Current status
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements..................  2007-2009..............................  Elements approved 75 FR
                                                                                38023 (July 1, 2010).\23\
Expanded Vehicle Retirement..............  2007...................................  Adopted by CARB June 2009;
                                                                                by BAR, September 2010.
Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline     2007...................................  Approved, see 75 FR 26653
 Program.                                                                            (May 2, 2010).
Cleaner In-use Heavy Duty Trucks.........  2007,..................................  Proposed approval 76 FR
                                           2008, 2010.............................   40652 (July 11, 2011).
Auxiliary Ship Cold Ironing and Other      2007-2008..............................  Adopted December 2007.
 Clean Technologies.
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuels......  Fuel: 2008-2011........................  Proposed approval 76 FR
                                           Engines: 2008..........................   40652 (July 11, 2011).
Port Truck Modernization.................  2007, 2008, 2010.......................  Adopted December 2007 and
                                                                                December 2008.
Accelerated Introduction of Cleaner        2008...................................  Prop 1B funds awarded to
 Locomotives.                                                                        upgrade line-haul
                                                                                locomotive engines not
                                                                                already accounted for by
                                                                                enforceable agreements with
                                                                                the railroads. Those
                                                                                cleaner line-hauls will
                                                                                begin operation by 2012.
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft...........  2007, 2010.............................  Adopted November 2007,
                                                                                revised June 2010.
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment........  2007, 2010.............................  Waiver decision pending.
New Emissions Standards for Recreational   2013...................................  Action expected in 2013.
 Boats.
Expanded Off-Road Recreational Vehicle     2013...................................  Action expected in 2013.
 Emissions Standards.
Enhanced Vapor Recovery for Above Ground   2008...................................  Adopted June 2007, effective
 Storage Tanks.                                                                      June 2008.
Additional Evaporative Emissions           2009, 2013.............................  Action expected 2013.
 Standards.
Consumer Products Program (I & II).......  2008, 2009, & 2011.....................  Approved 74 FR 57074
                                                                                (November 4, 2009) and 76
                                                                                FR 27613 (May 12, 2011).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 23, 2011 Progress Report, Table 1, and 2011 Ozone SIP Revision,
  Appendix A-3. Additional information from http://www.arb.ca.gov.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ California Assembly Bill 2289, passed in 2010, requires the
Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR) to direct older vehicles to high
performing auto technicians and test stations for inspection and
certification effective 2013. Reductions shown for the SmogCheck
program in the 2011 Progress Report do not include reductions from
AB 2289 improvements. See CARB Progress Report Supplement,
Attachment 5.

Table 5--Expected Emissions Reductions From Defined Measures in the 2007
                   State Strategy for the South Coast
                     [2023 planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Measure                     2023 NOX        2023 VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements (BAR) [partial].             1.2             5.3
Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks........            27.4             1.3
Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing &                28.4             0.7
 Clean Technology.......................
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel                  44.5             0.8
 [engine portion].......................
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft..........              10             0.4
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment                    3.2             0.3
 (>25hp)................................

Consumer Products Program [partial].....              --             7.1
                                         -------------------------------
    Totals..............................           114.7            15.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: CARB 2011 Ozone SIP Revision Supplement, Attachment 1.

    The 2007 State Strategy includes an enforceable commitment to
achieve aggregate emissions reductions of 141 tpd of NOX and
54 tpd of VOC by the attainment year (2023). See Table 6. The 2007
State Strategy demonstrates that these CARB commitments, in combination
with existing SIP-creditable measures, the District's commitments, and
reduction commitments from the CAA section 182(e)(5) new technologies
provision, will be sufficient to attain the 1997 8-hour NAAQS in the
South Coast nonattainment area by the applicable attainment date of
June 15, 2024. CARB also made enforceable commitments to achieve
aggregate emissions reductions in the RFP milestone years of 2014 and
2020. See 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 20 and CARB Resolution
07-28, Attachment B, p. 4. See Table 6 below. The nature of these
commitments is described in the State Strategy as follows:

    The total emission reductions from the new measures necessary to
attain the federal standards are an enforceable State commitment in
the SIP. While the proposed State Strategy includes estimates of the
emission reductions from each of the individual new measures, it is
important to note that the commitment of the State Strategy is to
achieve the total emission reductions necessary to attain the
federal standards, which would be the aggregate of all existing and
proposed new measures combined. Therefore, if a particular measure
does not get its expected emission reductions, the State still
commits to achieving the total aggregate emission reductions,
whether this is realized through additional reductions from the new
measures or from alternative control measures or incentive programs.
If actual emission decreases occur in any air basin for which
emission reduction commitments have been made that are greater than
the projected emissions reductions from the adopted measures in the
State Strategy, the actual emission decreases may be counted toward
meeting ARB's total emission reduction commitments.

CARB Resolution 07-28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 3.

                      Table 6--CARB Commitments to Specific Aggregate Emissions Reductions
                                              [Tons per summer day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                2023  CAA
                                                2014             2020 1             2023             section
                                                                                182(e)(5) 2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC.....................................                46                52                54                40
NOX.....................................               152               144               141               241
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2009 State Strategy Update, p. 20.
\1\ No commitments to VOC or NOX reductions in 2017; 2020 commitment in the South Coast is necessary to provide
  for attainment in the downwind nonattainment areas.
\2\ The anticipated reductions of VOC and NOX from 182(e)(5) measures will be reassessed as new SIPs are
  developed and revised. 2009 State Strategy Update, p. 20.

d. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New or Improved Technologies Provisions
    For ozone nonattainment areas classified as extreme, the CAA
recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely to a
certain extent on new or evolving technologies, given the relatively
long time between developing the initial plan and attaining the
standard and the degree of emissions reductions needed to attain. To
address these needs, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes EPA to approve
provisions in an extreme area plan which ``anticipate development of
new control techniques or improvement of existing control
technologies,'' and to approve an attainment demonstration based on
such provisions, if the State demonstrates that: (1) Such provisions
are not necessary to achieve the incremental emission reductions
required during the first 10 years after November 15, 1990;\24\ and (2)
the State has submitted enforceable commitments to develop and adopt
contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated technologies
do not achieve the planned reductions. CAA 182(e)(5). The State must
submit these contingency measures to EPA no later than 3 years before
proposed implementation of these long-term measures, and the
contingency measures must be ``adequate to produce emissions reductions
sufficient, in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to
achieve the periodic emissions reductions required by [CAA sections
182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and attainment by the applicable dates.'' Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ Consistent with provisions in our implementation
regulations for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 40 CFR part 51, subpart X,
we interpret this 10 year timeframe to run from the effective date
of designation for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The General Preamble further provides that the new technology
measures contemplated by section 182(e)(5) may include those that
anticipate future technological developments as well as those that
require complex analyses, decision making and coordination among a
number of government agencies. See General Preamble at 13524. An
attainment demonstration that relies on long-term new technology
measures under section 182(e)(5) must identify any such measures and
contain a schedule outlining the steps leading to final development and
adoption of the measures. Id.
    CARB and the SCAQMD have demonstrated a clear need for emissions
reductions from new and improved control technologies to reduce air

pollution in the South Coast. The adopted control measures and
enforceable commitments, discussed above, provide the majority, but not
all, of the balance of the emissions reductions needed to attain by
June 15, 2024. See 2007 State Strategy, p. 54. The State Strategy and
South Coast AQMP rely on commitments to achieve additional reductions
of 241 tpd NOX and 40 tpd VOC by 2023 from new and improved
technologies consistent with the requirements of section 182(e)(5). See
2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 20. The new technology provisions
(also called ``long-term measures'') described in the revised 2007
State Strategy and South Coast 8-Hour Ozone SIP are not relied on to
demonstrate RFP; they are relied on solely for attainment by June 15,
2024. They are accompanied by an enforceable commitment by the State to
adopt and submit contingency measures no later than 3 years before
implementation, as required by CAA section 182(e)(5). We provide our
analysis of these new technology provisions below.
    CARB and the California districts have a longstanding history of
successfully adopting and implementing technology-advancing regulations
and innovative control measures. They have worked closely with research
scientists and the regulated industry to develop regulations that are
stringent enough to compel technology development, yet flexible enough
to encourage industry innovations. CARB has provided a list of
potential long-term control measures which include increased durability
of emission control equipment in passenger vehicles, tighter engine
emission standards, cleaner ground support equipment at airports, and
prioritizing Federal transportation funding to support air quality
goals. See pp. 56-57 of the 2007 State Strategy. The SCAQMD has also
provided a list of potential advanced control technologies and
innovative approaches that could achieve the long-term reductions (See
South Coast 2007 AQMP, pp. 4-54 to 4-71). SCAQMD also has an active
Technology Advancement Office. The South Coast technology advancement
efforts include, though are not limited to: Heavy-Duty Class 8 Electric
Trucks, Vehicle Maintenance, Commercial Green Cleaners, Fireplace Gas
Log Buy-down, Residential Yard Equipment and Commercial Leaf Blower
Exchange, Boiler and Process Heater Efficiency Upgrades, Architectural
Coating Rebates, and zero-emission electric delivery trucks.
    CARB has also provided updates to its list of potential long-term
measures in both the 2009 State Strategy update and the 2011 ozone SIP
revision. The SCAQMD has also provided a more specific list of
potential technologies, which may be used to fulfill the new technology
commitments. SCAQMD's list of potential projects includes (but is not
limited to) extensive retirement of high-emitting light duty vehicles,
accelerated penetration of zero-emitting vehicles, retrofit and I/M for
heavy duty vehicles, more stringent fuel specifications and use of
diesel alternatives, more stringent marine vessel standards and
programs, advanced and zero-emitting technologies for locomotives/cargo
transportation, accelerated replacement of pleasure craft, more
stringent aircraft standards, and ultra-low VOC formulations for
consumer products. See South Coast AQMP, Table 4-9, p. 4-56. See 2009
State Strategy Status Report, pp. 25-27 and 2011 Ozone SIP Revision,
Appendix A, pp. A-8 to A-12.
    To implement the long-term strategy, CARB has committed to a
process that will help ensure that the long-term measures are adopted
and that reductions are achieved by the beginning of the last full
ozone season before the attainment date. CARB is coordinating a
government, private and public effort to establish emission goals for
critical mobile and stationary emission source categories. The effort
includes periodic assessment of technology advancement opportunities
and updates to the Board and the public regarding new emission control
opportunities and progress in achieving the long-term measure
reductions. CARB's commitment for implementing the long-term strategy
also includes (a) sharing results through periodic briefings to the
Board, workshops, conferences, symposia, Web site postings and other
means, (b) working to secure resources for continuing research and
development of new technologies, and (c) developing schedules for
moving from research to implementation. Id.
    An initial step in the long-term strategy was the signing of a
Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between the U.S. EPA, CARB and the South
Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Districts to commit to developing and
testing new sustainable technologies to accelerate progress in meeting
air quality goals. The goal of the MOA is to help align agency research
resources to evaluate innovative technologies and assess new monitoring
equipment to better measure mobile and stationary source emissions. The
MOA agencies have also established a Clean Air Technology Working Group
to help bring together the necessary participants (e.g., scientists,
engineers, analysts and agency specialists) to achieve the goals of the
MOA. 2009 State Strategy Status Report, pp. 25-27. For the South Coast,
the focus has been on demonstrating new technologies for goods movement
activities at a large intermodal rail yard in the City of San
Bernardino, and on the more than 1,000 stationary and area emission
sources in the South Coast (e.g., auto repair shops, transportation
facilities, concrete and aggregate operations, military installations,
printing and coating operations, and manufacturing facilities). See
2011 Ozone SIP Revision, p. A-9.
    Other State programs that may achieve emissions reductions to help
meet CARB's 182(e)(5) commitment include: potential co-benefits from
California's climate change programs where State legislation (Assembly
Bill 32--Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32)) aims to reduce
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) in 2020 to 1990 levels or by about 30%;
California's Air Quality Improvement Program (AQIP), an incentive
program that supports the deployment of hybrid and zero-emission
vehicles and other advanced technologies today in order to achieve the
large-scale reductions needed in the future; and California's annual
research program, which identifies projects and provides funding to
help provide timely scientific and technical information needed for air
quality control programs. In addition, the South Coast AQMD has
identified a clean energy strategy that focuses agencies and business
leaders on using the cleanest technologies, making efficient land-use
decisions, cleaner energy generation (solar and fuel cells),
modernizing old inefficient power plants and improving building energy
use. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, pp. A-10 to A-12.
    In addition to its commitment to the process discussed above, CARB
has committed to submit an 8-hour ozone SIP revision by 2020 that will:
(1) Reflect modifications to the 2023 emission reduction target based
on updated science and (2) identify additional strategies and
implementing agencies needed to achieve the needed reductions by the
beginning of the 2023 ozone season. See 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, p. A-
8.
    CARB's 2011 Ozone SIP Revision updates and reaffirms both the
``long-term strategy commitment to identify and implement advanced
technologies to reduce ozone-forming emissions in the State Strategy''
and the State's enforceable commitment ``to develop, adopt, and submit
contingency measures by 2020 if advanced

technology measures do not achieve planned reductions.'' See CARB
Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011. Finally, CARB has committed to meet
annually with EPA to discuss strategies to maximize the clean air
benefits of emerging advanced technologies and to provide annual
summaries of strategies and activities.\25\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ See letter, James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated August
29, 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The long-term strategy commitment for the South Coast 8-Hour Ozone
SIP satisfies the two criteria in CAA section 182(e)(5)(A) and (B) as
follows. First, as mentioned above, the South Coast 8-Hour Ozone SIP
does not rely on any of these new technology reductions to demonstrate
RFP in any milestone year between 2008 and 2020. CARB has committed to
achieve 241 tpd of NOX and 40 tpd of VOC reductions through
new technology measures approved under section 182(e)(5) only in the
attainment year (2023). We note that the amount and relative proportion
of reductions from measures scheduled for long-term adoption under
section 182(e)(5), as compared to measures already adopted in
regulatory form or scheduled for near-term adoption, should clearly
decrease in any future SIP update, and that EPA will not approve a SIP
revision that contains an increase in the amount or relative proportion
of section 182(e)(5) new technology measures without a convincing
showing in a SIP revision that the technologies relied upon in the
near-term rules have been found to be technologically infeasible or
ineffective in achieving emissions reductions in the near term.
    Second, CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to submit
adopted contingency measures to EPA by 2020 as required by CAA section
182(e)(5). See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011. These contingency
measures must be adequate to produce emissions reductions sufficient,
in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to achieve the
periodic emissions reductions required by CAA sections 182(b)(1) or
(c)(2) and attainment by the applicable dates. See CAA 182(e)(5). EPA
will approve or disapprove these contingency measures in accordance
with CAA section 110.
    Based on the above discussion and evaluations, we propose to
determine that the long-term strategy for the South Coast 8-Hour Ozone
SIP satisfies the requirements of CAA 182(e)(5).
3. Proposed Actions on RACM Demonstration and Control Strategy
    As described above, the District evaluated a range of potentially
available measures for inclusion in its 2007 Ozone Plan and committed
to adopt those it found to be reasonably available for implementation
in the South Coast nonattainment area. The process and the criteria the
District used to select certain measures and reject others were
consistent with EPA's RACM guidance. The evaluation processes
undertaken by SCAG and the State were also consistent with EPA's RACM
guidance. See e.g., General Preamble at 13560 and Seitz memo.
    Based on our review of these RACM analyses and the District's and
California's adopted rules, as well as their commitments to adopt and
implement additional control measures, we propose to find that there
are, at this time, no additional reasonably available control measures
(including reasonably available control technology) that would advance
attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast.
Therefore, we propose to find that the South Coast 2007 AQMP, together
with the 2007 State Strategy, provide for the implementation of all
RACM as required by CAA section 172(c)(1).
    We propose to approve the SCAQMD's commitments to achieve specific
aggregate reductions of NOX and VOC emissions by specific
years as given in Table 4-2A of the 2007 AQMP, as revised by Tables 2
and 3 of the 2007 Progress Report, Appendix F, and as shown in Table 2
above.
    We propose to approve CARB's commitments to propose certain defined
measures, as given in Table B-1 in Appendix B of the 2011 Progress
Report, and Appendix B, Table B-1 in the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision. We
also propose to approve CARB's commitment to achieve the total
aggregate emissions reductions necessary to demonstrate RFP and to
attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast nonattainment
area, as given in 2009 State Strategy Status Report, p. 20 and CARB
Resolution 07-28, Attachment B, p. 4, and shown in Table 6 above. See
CARB Resolution 07-28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 4.
    Finally, we are proposing to approve CARB's and the District's
long-term strategy commitments in the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone
Plan under the new technology provisions of CAA section 182(e)(5). This
proposal is based on our proposed findings that these commitments
satisfy the two criteria in CAA section 182(e)(5)(A) and (B). First,
the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone Plan does not rely on any of these
new technology reductions to demonstrate RFP in any milestone year
between 2008 and 2020. CARB has committed to achieve 241 tpd of
NOX and 40 tpd of VOC reductions through new technology
measures approved under section 182(e)(5) only in the attainment year
(2023). We note that the amount and relative proportion of reductions
from measures scheduled for long-term adoption under 182(e)(5), as
compared to measures already adopted in regulatory form or scheduled
for near-term adoption, should clearly decrease in any future SIP
update, and that EPA will not approve a SIP revision that contains an
increase in the amount or relative proportion of 182(e)(5) new
technology measures without a convincing showing in a SIP revision that
the technologies relied upon in the near-term rules have been found to
be technologically infeasible or ineffective in achieving emissions
reductions in the near-term.
    Second, CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to submit
adopted contingency measures to EPA by 2020 as required by CAA
182(e)(5). See CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011. These contingency
measures must be adequate to produce emissions reductions sufficient,
in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to achieve the
periodic emissions reductions required by CAA section 182(b)(1) or
(c)(2) and attainment by the applicable attainment date. See CAA
182(e)(5). Following the State's submittal of these contingency
measures, EPA will approve or disapprove the provisions in accordance
with CAA section 110.

C. Attainment Demonstration

1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstrations
    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires states with ozone nonattainment
areas classified as serious or above to submit plans that demonstrate
attainment of the applicable ambient air quality standard as
expeditiously as practicable but no later than the outside date
established in the CAA.\26\ The attainment demonstration is due within
three years of the area's designation as nonattainment (40 CFR 51.908),
and should include:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \26\ EPA's regulation at 40 CFR 51.903(a) translates the maximum
attainment periods in Table 1 of section 181, which are specifically
linked to enactment of the 1990 CAA Amendments, for purposes of
attaining the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (1) Technical analyses that locate and identify sources of
emissions that are

contributing to violations of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS within the
nonattainment area;
    (2) adopted measures with schedules for implementation and other
means and techniques necessary and appropriate for attainment; and
    (3) contingency measures required under section 172(c)(9) of the
CAA.
    See 70 FR 71612 at 71624.
    The requirements for the first two items are described in the
sections on emissions inventories and RACM above (sections IV.A. and
IV.C.) and in the sections on air quality modeling and attainment
demonstration that follow immediately below. Requirements for the third
item are described in the sections on the control strategy and the
contingency measures (sections V.B. and V.F.), respectively.
2. Air Quality Modeling in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    Below, we discuss the applicable statutory and regulatory
requirements for modeled attainment demonstrations and EPA guidance on
air quality modeling for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, the air
quality modeling analysis supporting the attainment demonstration in
the State's submittal, and our evaluation of these modeling analyses as
part of the attainment demonstration SIP.
a. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 8-Hour Ozone Air Quality
Modeling and EPA Guidance
    For any ozone nonattainment area classified as serious or above,
section 182(c)(2)(A) of the CAA specifically requires the State to
submit a modeled attainment demonstration based on a photochemical grid
modeling evaluation or any other analytical method determined by the
Administrator to be at least as effective as photochemical modeling.
EPA's ozone implementation rule in 40 CFR section 51.908 also specifies
this requirement and in addition requires that each attainment
demonstration meet the requirements of section 51.112, including
Appendix W to 40 CFR part 51, as interpreted in EPA guidance. See,
e.g., ``Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Air
Quality Goals in Attainment Demonstrations for Ozone, PM2.5,
and Regional Haze,'' April 2007 (hereafter referred to as ``EPA's 2007
attainment demonstration guidance documents''). These guidance
documents describe the criteria that an air quality model and its
application should meet to qualify for use in an 8-hour ozone
attainment demonstration. For more detail on EPA's evaluation of the
modeling in the South Coast 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration, see
the ``Modeling and Other Analyses Attainment Demonstration'' (section
II.B.) of the TSD for today's proposal. The modeling section of the TSD
also includes a complete list of applicable modeling guidance
documents. These documents describe the components of the attainment
demonstration, explain how the modeling and other analyses should be
conducted, and provide overall guidance on the technical analyses for
attainment demonstrations.
    As with any predictive tool, inherent uncertainties are associated
with photochemical grid modeling. EPA's guidance recognizes these
limitations and provides recommended approaches for considering other
analytical evidence to help assess whether attainment of the NAAQS is
likely. This process is called a weight of evidence (WOE) analysis.
    EPA's modeling guidance (updated in 1996, 1999, and 2002) discusses
various WOE analyses. EPA's modeling guidance was updated in 2005 and
2007 for the 1997 8-hour attainment demonstration procedures to include
a WOE analysis as an integral part of any attainment demonstration.
This guidance strongly recommends that all attainment demonstrations
include supplemental analyses beyond the recommended modeling. These
supplemental analyses would provide additional information such as data
analyses, and emissions and air quality trends, which would help
strengthen the conclusion based on the photochemical grid modeling. A
WOE analysis is specifically recommended for inclusion in any
attainment demonstration SIP where the modeling results predict Future
Design Values (FDVs) ranging from 82 to less than 88 ppb (see EPA's
2007 attainment demonstration guidance documents).
b. 8-Hour Attainment Demonstration Modeling and Weight of Evidence in
the South Coast 2007 AQMP
i. Photochemical Grid Modeling Attainment Demonstration Results
    a. Photochemical Grid Model. The model selected for the Final 2007
AQMP attainment demonstrations is the Comprehensive Air Quality Model
with Extensions (CAMx), version 4.4 (Environ, 2006), using Statewide
Air Pollution Research Center-99 (SAPRC-99) gas phase mechanisms
(Carter, 2000).\27\ The modeling system (including the photochemical
model, meteorological inputs, and chemical mechanism) is consistent
with the previous advice of outside peer reviewers. CAMx is a state-of-
the-art air quality model that can simulate ozone and PM2.5
concentrations together in a ``one-atmosphere'' approach for attainment
demonstrations. CAMx is designed to integrate the output from both
prognostic and diagnostic meteorological models.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \27\ Carter, W.P.L., May 8, 2000a. Documentation of the SAPRC-99
chemical mechanism for VOC reactivity assessment. Report to the
California Air Resources Board, Contracts 92-329 and 95-308.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    b. Episode Selection. Six meteorological episodes from three years
are used as the basis for the plan. The 2003 AQMP benefited from the
intensive monitoring conducted under the 1997 Southern California Ozone
Study (SCOS 1997) where the August 4-7, 1997 episode was the
cornerstone of the modeling analysis. One of the primary modeling
episodes that was used in the 2003 AQMP, August 5-6, 1997, was also
selected for this plan. In addition, five episodes that occurred during
the Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study III (MATES-III) sampling program
in 2004 (August 7-8) and 2005 (May 21-22, July 15-19, August 4-6, and
August 27-28) were selected.
    c. Model Performance. Model performance was evaluated in three
zones in the South Coast Basin: the San Fernando Valley; the eastern
San Gabriel, Riverside and San Bernardino Valleys; and Los Angeles and
Orange County. Normalized Gross Bias, Normalized Gross Error, and Peak
Prediction Accuracy were determined for each area. Although not a
requirement for determining acceptable model performance, the
performance statistics were compared to the EPA performance goals
presented in guidance documents. The performance goals for Normalized
Gross Error and Peak Prediction Accuracy were met in the eastern San
Gabriel, Riverside and San Bernardino Valleys. In general, the
statistic for bias (Normalized Gross Bias) tends to be negative,
indicating that the model tends to slightly under-predict ozone. Based
on their analysis, South Coast concludes and EPA agrees that model
performance is acceptable for this application.
ii. Modeling Approaches for the SCAQMD Attainment Demonstration
    CAMx simulations were conducted for the base year 2002, and future-
year 2023 baseline and controlled emissions.\28\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ Future year controlled emissions were estimated from the
baseline emissions using the CEPA control factors for the
simulations, are given in Table V-4-4 of the 2007 South Coast AQMP,
Appendix V.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The ozone attainment demonstration relies on the use of site-
specific relative response factors (RRFs) being applied to the 2002
weighted design values. The RRFs are determined from the future year
controlled and the 2002 base year simulations. The initial screening
for station days to be included in the attainment demonstration
included the following criteria: (1) Having an observed concentration
equaling or exceeding 85 ppb, and (2) a simulation predicted base year
(1997, 2004 or 2005) concentration over 60 ppb. Additional criteria
were added to the selection process as the simulations were evaluated.
A minimum of five episode days are recommended to determine the site
specific RRF. The selection criteria for the episode days and the
process of applying the RRFs to the CAMx modeling are discussed in more
detail in the TSD for today's action.
iii. Results of SCAQMD Modeling
    The results of the attainment demonstration for 2023 indicate that
the Federal 1997 8-hour ozone standard would be attained by June 15,
2024 at all monitors with the 2023 controlled emissions inventory. The
attainment targets (420 tpd VOC and 114 tpd NOX) are based
on both short-term and long-term control measures. With controls in
place, it is expected that all stations in the South Coast ozone
nonattainment area will meet the Federal 1997 8-hour ozone standard in
calendar year 2023 (i.e., by June 15, 2024). The east Basin stations of
Crestline and Fontana are projected to have the highest 8-hour ozone
design values of 83 ppb and 81 ppb respectively. Both sites are
downwind receptors along the primary wind transport route that moves
precursor emissions and developing ozone eastward by the daily sea
breeze. Future year projections of ozone along the northerly transport
route through the San Fernando Valley indicate that the ozone design
value in the Santa Clarita Valley will be 74 ppb, which is
approximately 13 percent below the standard, in 2023.
    In addition to the monitor-based attainment test, the AQMP includes
an unmonitored area analysis. This review is intended to ensure that a
control strategy leads to reductions in ozone at other locations which
could have baseline (and future) design values exceeding the NAAQS were
a monitor deployed there. The unmonitored area analysis indicates
projected 2024 controlled 8-hour ozone design concentrations at or
below 84 ppb for all grid cells in the South Coast Air Basin.
c. EPA's Evaluation and Proposed Conclusion on the Modeling
Demonstration
    Our evaluation of the air quality modeling analyses and supporting
information provided in the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP indicate that
the South Coast area will attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard by its
attainment date of June 15, 2024. In addition to the attainment
demonstration provided in the South Coast 2007 Ozone SIP, we have
considered supplemental technical information, including ambient air
quality monitoring data, which was not available at the time the
attainment modeling was performed by SCAQMD. This information is
discussed in more detail in the TSD. The modeling shows significant
reductions in ozone from the base period. The modeling predicts values
of 83 ppb or below at all of the twenty ozone monitoring stations. The
most recent ambient air quality data that we have reviewed indicate
that the area is on track to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard by
2024. The peak ozone design values have dropped from 128 ppb in 2000-
2002 to 112 ppb in 2008-2010.
    Based on the analysis above and in the TSD, EPA proposes to find
that the air quality modeling provides an adequate basis for the RACM,
RFP and attainment demonstrations in the South Coast 2007 8-Hour Ozone
Plan.
3. Enforceable Commitments in the Attainment Demonstration
    Table 8 below summarizes the measures that are relied upon in the
South Coast 2007 AQMP's 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration to
achieve the carrying capacities shown in Table 7. This attainment
demonstration was updated by the 2011 Ozone SIP revision to reflect
adjustments to future year baseline inventories and adopted controls.

   Table 7--Emissions Carrying Capacity Estimates for the South Coast
             Nonattainment Area for 8-Hour Ozone Attainment
             [Tons/day, based on summer planning inventory]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            NOX                                  VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
114.......................................................          420
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: South Coast 2007 AQMP, Table 5-6, page 5-21.

    As shown in Table 8, the majority of emissions reductions the State
projects are needed for attaining the 8-hour ozone standard in the
South Coast nonattainment area by 2024 come from baseline measures.
These baseline measures include numerous adopted District and State
measures that generally have been approved by EPA either through the
SIP process or the CAA section 209 waiver process. See Appendices A and
B of the TSD for a list of these measures. We have also accounted for
ARB's improvements to the emissions inventories, discussed above in
section IV.A, in the attainment year baseline emissions level (see
Table 8, row D). The remaining reductions needed for attainment are to
be achieved through the District's and CARB's enforceable commitments
to achieve aggregate emission reductions in the South Coast either
through defined control measures or through their commitments to
develop new or improved technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5). Since
the submittal of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy, the
District and CARB have adopted numerous control measures that have
significantly reduced the amount of emissions reductions that still
need to be achieved through these commitments. See Table 9.

                     Table 8--Summary of South Coast's 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration
                                         [Tons per summer planning day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               NOX                              VOC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A......................  Revised 2002 baseline   1024...........................  881
                          emissions level.
B......................  Attainment target       114............................  420
                          level.
C......................  Total reductions        910............................  461
                          needed from 2002
                          baseline levels to
                          demonstrate
                          attainment (A-B).
D......................  Attainment year         493............................  529
                          baseline emissions
                          level (from 2011
                          Ozone SIP Revision
                          Supplement, ``new
                          2023 baseline'').
E......................  Reductions from         531............................  352
                          baseline measures and
                          improvements to the
                          emissions inventory
                          (A-D).

F......................  Reductions needed from  379............................  109
                          control strategy
                          measures including
                          reductions from new
                          technologies (D-B).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Ozone SIP Revision, Appendix B, and 2011 Ozone SIP Revision Supplement.

Table 9--Reductions Needed for Attainment Remaining as Commitments Based
                       on SIP-Creditable Measures
                 [Tons per summer planning day in 2023]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           NOX                VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A              Total reductions                   910                461
                needed from
                baseline and
                control strategy
                measures to attain.
B              Reductions from                    531                352
                baseline measures
                and emissions
                inventory
                improvements.
C              Total reductions         7.7 + 114.7 =      15.3 + 15.9 =
                from approved                   122.4               31.2
                measures
                (District--Table 2
                above, and CARB--
                Table 5 above).
D              Total reductions                 256.6               77.8
                remaining as
                commitments and
                reductions from
                new technology
                measures (A-B-C).
E              Reductions                        14.3               33.1
                remaining as CARB
                enforceable
                commitments \1\.
F              Reductions                         1.5                3.9
                remaining as
                District
                enforceable
                commitments \2\.
G              Total reductions                   241                 40
                remaining as
                reductions from
                new technologies
                (CAA section
                182(e)(5).
H              Percent of                          2%                 8%
                reductions needed
                for attainment
                from new control
                measures, not
                including
                reductions from
                new technologies
                [(E + F)/A].
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Calculated by subtracting from CARB's 2023 NOX commitment of 141 tpd
  and VOC commitment of 54 tpd (Table 8) the adjustments to baseline
  from State and Federal sources from 2011 Ozone SIP Revision
  Supplement, Attachment 1 (12 tpd NOX, 5 tpd VOC) and emissions
  reductions from currently SIP-creditable State measures from Table 5
  (114.7 tpd NOX, 15.9 tpd VOC).
\2\ From Table 2 above in section IV.B., difference between District
  commitments and SIP-creditable measures.

    As shown in Table 9, reductions in the projected baseline inventory
from measures already adopted by the District and State (both prior to
and as part of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy),
which EPA has approved/waived or proposed to approve, provide the great
majority of the emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment
of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast. The balance is in
the form of either enforceable commitments to specific aggregate
emissions reductions by the District and CARB, or emissions reductions
from new or improved technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5). In this
section, we discuss the enforceable commitments that are a part of the
attainment demonstration in the South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan.\29\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \29\ Based on SIP-creditable measures adopted to date, the South
Coast 2007 Ozone Plan does not rely on enforceable commitments to
aggregate emissions reductions to demonstrate RFP or to meet any
other applicable requirement of the CAA. Therefore, we discuss here
only those enforceable commitments relied on to demonstrate
attainment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We believe that, with respect to the 2007 South Coast 8-hour Ozone
SIP, circumstances warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments
as part of the attainment demonstration for the South Coast. As shown
in Table 9 above, a substantial portion of NOX emissions
reductions and the majority of the VOC reductions needed to demonstrate
attainment in the South Coast come from rules and regulations that were
adopted prior to 2007, i.e., from baseline measures. As a result of
these State and District efforts, most sources in the South Coast
nonattainment area are currently subject to stringent rules adopted and
approved by EPA prior to the development of the 2007 State Strategy and
the South Coast 2007 AQMP, leaving few opportunities (and generally
more technologically and economically challenging ones) to further
reduce emissions. In the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State
Strategy, the District and CARB identified potential control measures
that could provide many of the additional emissions reductions needed
for attainment. See 2007 Ozone Plan, Chapter 5 and 2007 State Strategy,
Chapter 5. However, the timeline needed to develop, adopt, and
implement these measures went beyond the November 2007 submittal date
of the South Coast 8-hour Ozone SIP. These circumstances warrant the
District's and CARB's reliance on enforceable commitments as part of
the attainment demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007
State Strategy.
    Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable
commitments, we now consider the three factors EPA uses to determine
whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted measures
to meet a CAA planning requirements is approvable: (a) Does the
commitment address a limited portion of the statutorily-required
program; (b) is the state capable of fulfilling its commitment; and (c)
is the commitment for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
a. Commitments are a Limited Portion of Required Reductions
    For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a
limited portion of a statutory requirement, such as the amount of
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in a
nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the
new technologies provision (CAA section 182(e)(5) are not counted as
commitments.\30\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \30\ CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve an
attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from new
technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in CAA
section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emissions limitations under which
enforceable commitments are considered. As a result, reductions
attributed in the attainment demonstration to new technologies are
not considered part of the State's enforceable commitments for
purposes of determining the percentage of reductions needed for
attainment that remain as commitments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As shown in Table 9 above, the remaining portions of the emission

reductions needed to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone
standard in the South Coast nonattainment area (i.e., of the State's
total enforceable commitments), after accounting for State and District
measures approved/waived by EPA since 2007 and emissions reduction
commitments assigned to CAA section 182(e)(5) measures, are 15.8 tpd
NOX and 37 tpd VOC. When compared to the total reductions
needed to demonstrate attainment (not including the CAA section
182(e)(5) reductions in the attainment demonstration), the remaining
portion of the enforceable commitments represents approximately 2
percent of the needed NOX reductions and 8 percent of the
needed VOC reductions. Historically, EPA has approved SIPs with
enforceable commitments in the range of 10 percent or less of the total
needed reductions for attainment. See our approval of the SJV
PM10 Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004), the SJV 1-hour
ozone plan at 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010), the Houston-Galveston 1-hour
ozone plan at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001), proposed approval of the
SJV 2007 PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR 41338 (July 13, 2011), and
proposed approval of the South Coast PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR
41562 (July 14, 2011). Thus, the State's commitment addresses a limited
proportion of the required emission reductions.
b. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling its Commitment
    For the second factor, we consider whether the District and State
are capable of fulfilling their commitments.
    As discussed above, CARB has adopted and submitted the 2009 State
Strategy Status Report and the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision which update and
revise the 2007 State Strategy. These submittals show that CARB has
made significant progress in meeting its enforceable commitments for
the South Coast 8-hour ozone nonattainment area and several other
nonattainment areas in California. The District has also made
significant progress in meeting its enforceable commitments for the
attainment year of 2023. It has adopted rules that are projected to
achieve additional reductions of NOX and VOC in future years
as shown in Table 2 above. In addition to the rules discussed above,
both CARB and the District have well-funded incentive grants programs
to reduce emissions from the on- and off-road engine fleets. Reductions
from several of these programs have yet to be quantified and/or
credited in the attainment demonstration. See, for example, Tables 2
and 3 in Appendix F of the 2011 Progress Report.
    Given the State's and District's efforts to date to reduce
emissions, we believe that the State and District are capable of
meeting their enforceable commitments to adopt measures that will
reduce emissions of NOX and VOC to the levels needed to
attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast 8-hour ozone
nonattainment area by the attainment date, as shown in Table 9.
c. The Commitment Is for a Reasonable and Appropriate Timeframe
    For the third and last factor, we consider whether the commitment
is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
    In order to meet the commitments to adopt measures to reduce
emissions to the levels needed to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard
in the South Coast nonattainment area by 2023, the South Coast 2007
AQMP and 2007 State Strategy include ambitious rule development,
adoption, and implementation schedules. The State has committed to
adopt the rules needed to achieve the few remaining reductions by 2023.
We believe that this period is appropriate given the technological and
economic challenges associated with the control measures that will be
needed to achieve these reductions and the State's required procedures
for development and adoption of these measures. In addition, these
reductions are not needed to meet earlier RFP targets and the adoption
and submission timeframe ensures adequate time for implementation by
the beginning of the last full ozone season (2023) prior to the June
15, 2024 attainment date. See Tables 2 and 4 above. Thus, the
commitment is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
4. Proposed Action on Attainment Demonstration
    In order to approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, EPA must make
several findings.
    First, we must find that the demonstration's technical bases,
including the emissions inventories and air quality modeling, are
adequate. As discussed above in section IV.A and IV.C.2, we are
proposing to approve the revised base year emissions inventory, and to
find the air quality modeling adequate to support the attainment
demonstration.
    Second, we must find that the SIP provides for expeditious
attainment through the implementation of all RACM. As discussed above
in section IV.C., we are proposing to approve the RACM demonstration in
the South Coast 2007 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section
172(c)(1).
    Third, we must find that the emissions reductions that are relied
on for attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for
attainment. As shown in Table 9, the South Coast 2007 AQMP relies
primarily on adopted and approved/waived rules to achieve the emissions
reductions needed to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standards in the
South Coast by June 15, 2024. The balance of the reductions projected
to be needed for attainment is currently in the form of enforceable
commitments to adopt measures to achieve aggregate tonnage reductions
of VOC or NOX in the near term from available technologies
and measures, and an enforceable commitment to adopt and submit in the
longer term measures relying on the development and deployment of new
technologies that will achieve specific aggregate tonnage reductions of
VOC and NOX.
    EPA has previously accepted enforceable commitments in lieu of
adopted control measures in attainment demonstrations when the
circumstances warrant them and the commitments meet three criteria. As
discussed above in section IV.C.3., we believe that circumstances here
warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments, and that the
three criteria are met: (1) The commitments constitute a limited
portion of the required emissions reductions; (2) both the State and
District are capable of meeting their commitments; and (3) the
commitments are for an appropriate timeframe. Based on these
evaluations, we are proposing to approve the enforceable commitments as
part of the attainment demonstration.
    CAA section 182(e)(5) allows extreme ozone nonattainment area plans
under certain conditions to include provisions for the development of
new technologies in the SIP and allows EPA to approve attainment
demonstrations based, in part, on those provisions. For the reasons
discussed in section IV.B., we propose to find that California has met
the conditions for relying on new technology provisions in its
attainment demonstration for the South Coast nonattainment area.
    For the foregoing reasons, we propose to approve the attainment
demonstration in the South Coast 2007 Ozone Plan.

D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration

1. Requirements for Reasonable Further Progress
    CAA Section 172(c)(2) requires that plans for nonattainment areas
shall provide for reasonable further progress (RFP). RFP is defined in
section 171(1) as ``such annual incremental reductions in emissions of
the relevant air pollutant as are required by [Part D--Plan
Requirements for Nonattainment Areas] or may reasonably be required by
the Administrator for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the
applicable [NAAQS] by the applicable date.'' CAA Section 182(b)(1)
specifically requires that ozone nonattainment areas that are
classified as moderate or above demonstrate a 15 percent reduction in
ozone precursor emissions between the years of 1990 and 1996. For ozone
nonattainment areas classified as serious or higher, section
182(c)(2)(B) also requires a 3 percent per year reduction of ozone
precursor emissions until attainment, in addition to the 15 percent
reduction required under CAA 182(b)(1).
    CAA Section 182(b)(1)(D) prohibits the state from including
emissions reductions from pre-1990 Federal motor vehicle programs when
demonstrating RFP. In other words, the reductions from these programs
are not creditable when demonstrating RFP.
    The ozone implementation rule for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS
interprets the RFP requirements for the purposes of the 1997 8-hour
ozone standards, establishing requirements for RFP that depend on the
area's classification as well as whether the area has an approved 15
percent reduction plan for the 1-hour ozone standard that covers all of
the 8-hour ozone nonattainment area. See 40 CFR 51.910(a) and 70 FR
71612. In 1997, EPA approved a 15 percent rate of progress (ROP) plan
for the South Coast, which covers the entire nonattainment area for the
1997 8-hour ozone standard. See 62 FR 1150 (January 8, 1997). As a
result, the State does not need to demonstrate another 15 percent
reduction in VOC for this area. Instead, under the ozone implementation
rule, the 8-hour ozone SIP for South Coast must provide for an average
of 3 percent per year of VOC and/or NOX emissions reductions
for (1) the 6-year period beginning January 1 of the year following the
year used for the baseline and (2) all remaining 3-year periods after
the first 6-year period out to the area's attainment date. 40 CFR
51.910(a)(1)(ii)(B). Except as specifically provided in CAA section
182(b)(1)(C), emissions reductions from all SIP-approved, federally
promulgated, or otherwise SIP-creditable measures that occur after the
baseline are creditable for purposes of demonstrating that the RFP
targets are met.
    The RFP demonstration must calculate and exclude the non-creditable
reductions described in CAA 182(b)(1)(D). These non-creditable
reductions include emissions reductions from pre-1990 Federal motor
vehicle programs. The method for calculating the target emissions
levels is found in Appendix A to the preamble of the ozone
implementation rule. See 70 FR 71612 at 71696.
2. RFP Demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    California has made several submittals to address the RFP
requirement for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast 8-
hour ozone nonattainment area. The original RFP demonstration is in
Chapter 6 of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. The demonstration addresses
NOX and VOC emissions and uses the 2002 annual average
inventory as the baseline emissions inventory and 2023 as the
attainment year. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Table 6-2A and 6-2B. CARB
submitted a revised RFP demonstration for the South Coast 8-hour ozone
nonattainment area on July 29, 2011 as part of the 2011 Ozone SIP
Revision. The 2011 submission reflected revisions to several
significant control measures since the submission of the SIP in 2007,
as well as changes to the on-road diesel and off-road construction
emissions estimates. Table 10 below summarizes the South Coast ozone
RFP demonstration as revised by the 2011 Ozone SIP Revision.

      Table 10--2011 Revisions to the 8-Hour Ozone SIP Reasonable Further Progress Calculations South Coast
                                          [Summer season, tons per day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    2002      2008     2011     2014     2017     2020     2023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline ROG....................................     880.5    632.0    579.9    535.2    519.8    513.9   513.4.
CA MVCP/RVP Adjustment..........................       0.0     56.1     73.0     86.6     93.7     98.3   101.6.
RACT Corrections................................       0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0     0.0.
Adjusted 2002 Baseline ROG in milestone year....     880.5    824.5    807.6    793.9    786.8    782.3   778.9.
RFP commitment for ROG reductions from new             0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0     0.0.
 measures.......................................
Future Year ROG with existing and proposed        ........    632.0    579.9    535.2    519.8    513.9   513.4.
 measures.......................................
Required % change since previous milestone year   ........      18%       9%       9%       9%       9%      9%.
 (ROG or NOX) compared to 2002..................
Required % change since 2002 (ROG or NOX).......  ........      18%      27%      36%      45%      54%     63%.