Section 6 of Understanding Climatic Change. Understanding Climatic Change, a program for action by the U.S. Committee for the Global Atmospheric Research Program. Section 6, a National Climatic Research Program. Part 1. While there is ample evidence that past climatic changes have had profound effects on man's activities, future changes of climate promise to have even greater impacts. The present level of use of land for agriculture, the use of water supplies for irrigation and drinking, and the use of both air sheds and watersheds for waste disposal is approaching the limit. A change of climate, even if sustained only for a few years time, could seriously disrupt this use pattern and have far-reaching consequences to the national economy and well-being. To this vulnerability to natural climatic changes, we must add the increasing possibility that man's own activities may have significant climatic repercussions. If we are to react rationally to the inevitable climatic changes of the future, and if we are ever to predict their future course, whether they are natural or man-induced, a far greater understanding of these changes is required than we now possess. It is, moreover, important that this knowledge be acquired as soon as possible. Although much has been accomplished, and further research is underway on many problems, as summarized in Chapter 5, the mechanics of the climatic system is so complex, and our observations of its behavior so incomplete, that at present, we do not know what causes any particular climatic change to occur. Our response to this state of affairs is the recommendation of an integrated research program to contain the observational, analytical, and research components necessary to acquire this understanding. Here, to four, the many pieces of the climatic puzzle have been considered in relative isolation from each other, a subdivision that is natural to the traditional scientific method. We believe, however, that the time has now come to initiate a broad and coordinated attack on the problem of climate and climatic change. Such a program should not stifle the development of new and independent lines of attack, nor seek to assemble all efforts under a single authority. On the contrary, its purpose should be to provide a coordinating framework for the necessary research on all aspects of this important problem, including the strengthening of those efforts already underway, as well as the initiation of new efforts. Only in this manner can our limited resources be used to maximum benefit and a balanced and coherent approach maintained. The Approach From the summary of recent and current research on climates and climatic variation presented in Chapter 5, it is clear that considerable effort has been devoted to this problem. It is also clear that much remains to be done. As an approach to the research program itself, we here attempt to summarize what is now known and to identify those elements that now make a greatly expanded effort both feasible and desirable. What climatic events and processes can we now identify? From the analysis of accumulated instrumental climatic data, we can identify some of the major characteristics of the climatic changes of the past few decades. These include the presence of seasonal and annual circulation anomalies over large regions of the earth, together with some longer-term trends. More recent satellite observations have documented changes in worldwide cloudiness, snow cover, and the global radiation balance, and have served to emphasize the climatic role of the oceans. Although the necessary oceanic measurements have not yet been made, satellite observations, together with atmospheric data, indicate that the oceans accomplish between one-third and one-half of the total annual meridional heat transport. From the analysis of selected paleoclimatic data, it appears that ancient climates have been somewhat similar in behavior to the present day climate, although the resolution is poorer. These data also suggest the presence of seemingly quasi-periodic climatic fluctuations on timescales of order 100,000 years associated with the earth's major glaciations. From the solutions of numerical general circulation models, we can identify a number of important physical elements in the maintenance of global climate. Primary among these is the role played by convective motions in the vertical heat flux and by the transfers of heat at the ocean surface. Climate models also show that the climate is sensitive to the extent of cloudiness and to the surface albedo. Recent solutions of global atmospheric models have shown that the accuracy of the simulations of cloudiness and precipitation is more difficult to establish than the average seasonal distribution of the large-scale patterns of pressure, temperature, and wind, which are simulated with reasonable accuracy, C appendix B. This may be due to the prescription of the sea's surface temperature in the atmospheric models, serving to mask errors in the model's heat balance. Less experience has been gained with oceanic general circulation models, although they are capable of portraying the large-scale thermal structure of the oceans and the distribution of the major current systems when subject to realistic, atmospheric, surface boundary conditions. These and other models are just beginning to identify the energetic mesoscale eddy, which in some ways appears to be the oceanic counterpart of the transient cyclones and anti-cyclones in the atmosphere. From the analysis of a variety of climate models, as well as from the analysis of climatic data, we can identify a number of links or processes in the phenomenon of climatic change. On at least the shorter climatic time scales, the climatic system is regulated by a number of feedback mechanisms, especially those involving cloudiness, surface temperature, and surface albedo. Underlying these effects is the increasing evidence that large-scale thermal interactions between the ocean and atmosphere are the primary factor in climatic variations on time scales from months to millennia. These interactions must be examined in coupled ocean atmosphere models whose development has just begun. The role of the oceans in the climatic system raises the possibility of some degree of useful predictability on, say, seasonal or annual time scales, and is an obviously important matter for further research. From the analysis of the limited data available, we can identify a number of areas in which man's actions may be capable of altering the course of climatic change. Chief among these is interference with the atmospheric heat balance by increasing the aerosol and particulate loading and increasing the CO2 content of the atmosphere by industrial and commercial activity. While present evidence indicates that these are not now dominant factors, they may become so in the future. To these we must also add the possibility of man's direct thermal interference with climate by the disposal of large amounts of waste heat into the atmosphere and ocean. Although important large-scale thermal pollution effects of this sort do not appear likely before the middle of the next century, they may eventually be the factor that limits the climatically acceptable level of energy production. Why is a program necessary? Although the conclusions identified above represent important research achievements, they are nevertheless concerned with separate pieces of the problem. What we cannot identify at the present time is how the complete climatic system operates, which are its most critical and sensitive parts, which processes are responsible for its changes, and what are the most likely future climates. In short, while we know something about climate itself, we know very little about climatic change. From among the present activities, we can identify important problems requiring further research. In general, these concern new observations and the further analysis of older ones, the design of improved climatic models of the atmosphere and ocean, and the simulation of climatic variations under a variety of conditions for the past, present, and future. As we attempt this research on a global scale, it becomes increasingly important that we ensure the smooth flow of data and ideas, as well as of resources, among all parts of the problem. The attention devoted in each country, and internationally through GARP, to the improvement of weather forecasting, a problem whose physical basis is reasonably well understood, must be matched by a program devoted to climate and climatic variation, a problem whose global aspects are even more prominent and whose physical basis is not at all well understood. The need for a broad, sustained, and coordinated attack is therefore a fundamental reason for a climatic research program. Other circumstances also indicate that a major research program on climatic change is both timely and necessary. First, for the past few years, we have had available to us the unprecedented observational capability of meteorological satellites. This capability has steadily increased from the initial observations of the cloudiness, radiation budget, and albedo to include the vertical distribution of temperature and moisture, the extent of snow and ice, the sea surface temperature, the presence of particulates, and the character of the land surface. The regular global coverage provided by such satellites clearly constitutes an observational breakthrough of great importance for climatic studies. Second, the study increase in the speed and capacity of computers, which has been taking place since their introduction in the 1950s, has reached the point where numerical integration of global circulation models over many months or even years is now practical. Such calculations, along with the associated data processing, will form the quantitative backbone of climatic research for many years to come, and their feasibility clearly constitutes a computational breakthrough. This computing capability, as represented, for example, by machines of the TI-ASC or ILLIC-4 class, will permit extensive experimentation for the first time with the coupled global climatic system. Finally, the recent development of unified physical models of the coupled ocean atmosphere may itself be viewed as a modeling breakthrough of great importance. Up to now, either the atmosphere or the ocean has been considered as a separate entity in global modeling, and their solutions have consequently described a sort of quasi-equilibrium climate. The simulation of climatic variation with these models, on the other hand, is just now beginning. A future modeling breakthrough of equally great importance will be the successful parameterization of the eddy transports of baroclinic disturbances in the atmosphere and in the ocean. Aside from the practical importance, or even urgency, of the climatic problem, the breakthroughs noted above indicate that a time is at hand during which progress will be in proportion to our efforts. By coordinating these efforts into a coherent research program, we may therefore expect to achieve significantly greater understanding of climatic variation. The Research Program, NCRP. We have here assembled our specific recommendations for the data, the research, and the applications that we believe constitute the needed elements of a comprehensive national research program on climatic change. We recognize that some of the elements of this program require considerable further development and coordination. We also recognize that some of the recommended efforts are already underway or are planned by various groups, but we believe that their identification as parts of a coherent program is both valuable and necessary. Our recommendations for the planning and execution of this program are given later in this chapter, including those items on which we urge immediate action. Data needed for climatic research The availability of suitable climatic data is essential to the success of climatic analysis and research, and such data are an integral part of the overall program. The needed data are discussed below in terms of a sub-program for climatic data assembly and analysis and a sub-program for climatic index monitoring. These are the efforts that we believe to be necessary to make the store of climatic data more useful to the climatic research community and to ensure the systematic collection of the needed climatic data in the future. Climatic data analysis Instrumental data Instrumental observations of the atmosphere adequate to depict even a decade old climatic variation are available only for about the last half century for selected regions of the northern hemisphere and the observational coverage of the oceans is even poorer in both space and time, see Appendix A. In order to assess more accurately the present database of conventional observations and the needed extensions of such data, a number of efforts should be undertaken. A worldwide inventory of climatic data should be taken to determine the amount, nature, and location of past and present instrumental observations of the following variables surface pressure temperature humidity wind rainfall snowfall and cloudiness upper air temperature pressure altitude wind and humidity ocean temperature salinity and current the location and depth of land ice sea ice and snow the surface insulation ground temperature ground moisture and runoff this inventory should identify the length of the observational record the data quality and the state of its availability in addition to the usual data sources efforts should be made to locate data from private sources older records and unpublished climatological summaries although some of these data have been summarized no overall inventory of this type exists selected portions of these data should be systematically transferred to suitable computer storage in a format permitting easy access and screening by variable time period and location these data should then be used to compute in a systematic fashion a basic set of climatic statistics for as many time periods and for as many regions of the world as possible these should include the means the variances and the extremes for monthly seasonal annual and decade old periods for both individual stations and for various ensembles of stations up to and including the entire globe research should also be devoted to the effects of instrumental errors observational coverage and analysis procedures on climatic statistics recognizing that these data have large differences in quality coverage and length of record and were often collected as byproducts of other studies new four-dimensional climatological data analysis schemes should be developed based on suitable analysis methods or models to synthesize as much of the missing information as possible while making maximum use of the available data efforts should also be devoted to the design of suitable computerized graphical display and output once such synthesis are available we recommend that suitable climatological diagnostic studies be made using dynamical climate models to generate systematically the various auxiliary and unobserved climatic variables such as evaporation sensible heat flux surface wind stress and the balances of surface heat moisture and momentum such data of course would be artificial but may nevertheless be of diagnostic use in so far as possible the pertinent statistics of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations and their energy momentum and heat balances should be determined the results of such analyses should be made available in the form of new climatological atlases supplementing and extending those now available for scattered portions of the record and for selected regions of the world the widely used climatological summaries of swerve drop 1942 molar 1951 and buddhiko 1963 for example are largely based on the subjective analyses of older data of uncertain quality other analyses are more authoritative or to enrass muson 1971 newell et al 1972 but are in need of extension we wish to emphasize the great importance of the potentially unmatched coverage of observations from satellites those that are of climatic value should be systematically catalogued and summarized and made available on as timely a basis as possible these should include observations of cloud cover snow and ice extent planetary albedo and the net radiation balance as remote techniques for measuring the atmosphere's composition motion and temperature structure and the surface temperature of land and ocean are developed these data should be systematically added to the climatological inventory they should also be used in the analysis and model based diagnostic efforts described above and in the climatic index monitoring program outlined below the presently available summaries of such data e.g. von der har and swami 1971 have yielded important new results and should be continued on an expanded basis historical data as noted in appendix a a wealth of information has been recorded on past variations of weather and climate in historical sources such as books manuscripts blogs and journals during the past several centuries while much of these data are fragmentary and not of a quality comparable with that of instrumental observations it is nevertheless of value we therefore recommend that an organized effort be made to locate classify and summarize historical climatic information and to identify and exploit new sources from the studies of this sort that have already been made e.g. Bryson and julian 1963 the rory leduri 1971 lamb 1968 1972 it is clear that these efforts should involve historians archaeologists and geographers on an international scale efforts be made to relate this material to data from other proxy sources whenever possible and efforts made to interpret and focus the material in a climatologically meaningful way proxy data we recognize the unique value of proxy data for studies of climatic change such data are obtained from the analysis of tree ring growth patterns glacier movements lake and deep sea sediments ice cores and studies of soil and periglacial stratigraphy data from tree rings annually layered lake sediments and some ice cores are capable of providing information for individual years while those from other sources provide more generalized climatic information on timescales of decades centuries and millennia such data constitute the only source of records for the study of the structure and characteristics fluctuations of ancient climates as discussed in appendix a of this report some of these past climates were quite different from the present regime and provide our only documentation of the extreme states of which the earth's climatic system is capable because all proxy climatic data may contain both bias and random error components it is essential that a variety of independent proxy records be studied it is important that coverage be as nearly global as possible since most of the information on climatic variations is contained in the spatial patterns of the data fields while noting that some such activity is already in progress we urge that the assembly and analysis of paleoclimatic data be initially focused on four time spans see below this represents a strategic decision in order to make the best use of the available resources in each area it is important that steps be taken to increase greatly the degree of coordination and cooperation within the paleo climatological community and that the cross checking of overlapping data sets the development of complementary and independent proxy data sources and the calibration against instrumentally observed data be undertaken whenever possible the last 10 000 years this is the interval within which we may hope to gain insight into the current interglacial period by the systematic assembly of a wide variety of proxy climatic data this is also the interval of greatest practical importance for the immediate future for this period particular attention should be given to six techniques studies of the structural isotopic and chemical properties of tree rings should be intensified and extended to a global coverage since forest cover large areas of the globe it is possible in principle to develop climatic records over extensive continental areas and to reconstruct the spatial patterns of past climate for the past several centuries or millennia the amount of effort depends on the availability of suitable trees and on the resolution required in the climatic reconstruction data on variations of the density of wood from x-ray techniques and on the concentrations of trace elements and of stable isotopes of carbon hydrogen and oxygen in well-dated rings should also be developed special efforts should be made to calibrate the few millennia long tree ring records with information from other suitable proxy data sources such as pollen fars and ice cores studies of pollen records in lakes and bogs should be extended most pollen analyses to date have concerned bogs created by the retreat of the last continental ice sheet in order to permit synoptic reconstruction of the global vegetational record for the past 10,000 years or so pollen analyses with extensive carbon-14 dating should be extended to the non-glaciated areas of the world particularly to low latitude regions and to the southern hemisphere studies of the polar ice caps should be expanded this should include additional short ice cores in widely distributed locations in both green land and Antarctica and more detailed isotopic analyses studies of the major mountain glaciers should be expanded to obtain additional information on the various glaciers advances and retreats using chronological control where possible studies of ocean sediments in the few basins of known high deposition rates should be greatly expanded particularly near the continental margins the synoptic reconstruction of even the decadal variations of sea surface temperatures and possibly of currents as well would be of great paleoclimatic interest this effort will involve lithologic faunal and isotopic analyses of long cores collected specifically for this purpose the records from varved sediments enclosed basin lakes or land locked seas should be extended such data are particularly sensitive to the climatic fluctuations in arid regions and would further our knowledge of the long-term behavior of deserts and drought the last 30 000 years this interval is dominated by the waxing and waning of continental ice sheets in this interval the radiocarbon dating method provides a good chronology and the possibilities for studying the relative phases of different proxy climatic records on a global basis are a maximum in this period particular efforts should be made in the following areas pollen records for the interval 10 000 to 30 000 years ago should be obtained in a wide variety of sites in both hemispheres ice margin data should continue to be collected for northern hemisphere glaciers and should be extended into southern hemisphere mountain areas additional deep sea cores should be obtained especially in the pacific and southern oceans in order to reveal further the geographic pattern of marine paleoclimates these data would be particularly useful from high deposition rate basins additional data should be obtained on the fluctuations in the extent and volume of the polar ice sheets during this time interval particular attention should be given to the smaller ice sheets such as the west Antarctic and greenland ice sheets which react more rapidly to climatic variations more extensive analyses of sea level records should be made emphasizing the removal of tectonic and isostatic effects present studies on raised coral reefs should be extended and estuarine borings should be carefully dated and given thorough lithologic analysis the last 150 000 years here we should seek to increase our knowledge of the last 100 000 year glacial interglacial cycle this interval includes the last period in the climatic history of the earth that was evidently most like that of today the data of this period also provide the best example of how the last interglacial period ended efforts should be made to further develop a number of proxy data sources including extensive collection and analyses of marine sediment cores to provide adequate global coverage of the world ocean further studies of the fluctuations of the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps with emphasis on records extending beyond the beginning of the last interglacial this should include a geographic network of ice cores of sufficient length to penetrate this time range of which those at camp century bird and Vostok are now the only examples further systematic study of the lowest soil sequences in suitable regions around the world including argentina australia china and the great planes of north america systematic studies of desert regions and arid intermountain basin areas in order to examine the patterns of long-term changes in aridity present records are limited to about the last 40 000 years and their extension will require long borings in selected lakes and playas extended studies of sea level variations from coral reef and island shoreline features further studies of long pollen records covering previous interglacial periods this should include data from previously unsampled regions of the world particularly in the southern hemisphere the last one million years and beyond fluctuations in this time range should not be ignored simply because of their antiquity here we have the opportunity to compare the circulation patterns that have characterized the last several full glacial and interglacial periods and thereby to contribute evidence on the question of the degree of determinism of the earth's climatic system efforts should therefore be made to extend suitable proxy records into this time range including additional marine sediment cores of sufficient length say up to 100 meters long to cover several glacial cycles should be obtained this will require new innovations in drilling technology as piston cores do not penetrate deeply enough for this purpose and rotary drills presently in use greatly disturb the sedimentary record the record of the Antarctic ice sheet and the associated sea level variations should be extended as far back as possible and in as much detail as possible this ice mass is a living climatic fossil and may contain information about the global climate for the past several million years climatic index identification and monitoring in addition to the data provided by conventional surface and upper air observations climatic studies require other contemporary data that are not now readily available the one hope for obtaining truly global coverage of many current climatic variables rests with satellite observations we expect that climatic studies in the foreseeable feature will have to rely on a combination of conventional observations satellite observations and special observations designed to monitor selected climatic variables as discussed below we should therefore make full use of the temporary expansion of the observational network planned for the fgge in 1978 in order to design a longer lived climatic observing program in addition efforts should be made to process the monitored data from both satellites and other systems into forms that are useful for climatic studies support should be given to the development of new satellite based observational techniques including those designed to monitor the oceans and the earth's surface there remain however a number of processes that are important to climate that are now beyond the reach of satellite observations primary among these is the pattern of the planetary thermal forcing which drives the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and the related balance of energy at the earth's surface even a measurement of the average pole to equator temperature difference tells us something about the circulation and in a similar way the discharge of a river gives us some information on the hydrologic balance in the river's basin such measurements which represent time and space integrals of climatically important processes we term climatic indices while efforts to monitor indices of this sort are already underway we recommend that further efforts be made to identify and monitor a variety of such indices in a coordinated and sustained fashion as part of a comprehensive global climatic index monitoring program or cimp whose elements are outlined below atmospheric indices the heat balance of the atmosphere is basic to the character of the general circulation and hence is a principal determinant of climate it is therefore important that the primary elements of this balance be monitored with as much accuracy and with as nearly global coverage as possible in particular we recommend that further efforts be made to monitor the solar constant and the spectral distribution of solar radiation with appropriate satellite born instrumentation monitor the net outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation by satellite based measurements from which determinations of the absorbed radiation and planetary albedo may be made monitor the latent heat released in large-scale tropical convection possibly with the aid of satellite cloud observations develop methods to monitor remotely the surface latent heat flux into the atmosphere possibly with the aid of satellite measurements of the vertical distribution and total amount of water vapor these methods and those for the sensible heat flux discussed below will require calibration against field appropriate measurements especially over the oceans develop methods to monitor remotely the surface sensible heat flux into the atmosphere especially that from the oceans such as occurs in winter off the east coasts of the continents and in the higher latitudes efforts should also be made to monitor remotely the vertical sensible heat flux that occurs as a result of convective motions both over the oceans and over land expand the satellite monitoring of global cloud cover to include information on the clouds height thickness and liquid water content so that their role in the heat balance may be determined monitor the distribution of surface wind over the oceans possibly by radar measurements of the scattering by surface waves or from the microwave emissivity changes created by foam oceanic indices in view of the fundamental role the oceans play in the processes of climatic change special efforts should be made to monitor those oceanic variables associated with large-scale thermal interaction with the atmosphere in addition to the low-level air temperature moisture cloudiness surface wind and surface radiation the surface heat exchange depends critically on the sea surface temperature and heat storage in the oceanic surface layer itself we therefore recommend that further efforts be made to monitor the worldwide distribution of sea surface temperature by a combination of all available ship buoy coastal and satellite based measurements sea surface temperature analyses such as now performed operationally by the navy's fleet numerical weather central in monterey should be extended and supplemented for climatic purposes on a global basis by improved satellite observations capable of penetrating cloud layers the drifting buoy observations of sea surface temperature planned for the fgge should be expanded and maintained on a routine basis monitor the heat storage in the surface layer of the ocean by a program of observations from satellite interrogated expandable drifting buoys and by expendable bathy thermograph or xbt observations from ships of opportunity in those areas of the world ocean traveled by commercial ships it is estimated that there are several hundreds such transits each year across most major oceans of the world an expansion of xbt observations from merchant ships of opportunity is being undertaken by the north pacific project nor packs in cooperation with the navy's fleet numerical weather central and noah's national marine fishery service similar programs should be undertaken in the other oceans and especially in the oceans of the southern hemisphere with special efforts made to place instruments aboard ships on unconventional routes and on selected government vessels this xbt program should be supplemented by buoy measurements in selected locations and by xbt's launched from aircraft on meridional flight paths in the more inaccessible ocean areas expand the present data buoy programs now underway by noah and others so that the volume and heat transport of the major ocean currents can be monitored suitably deployed bottom mountain sensors moored buoys or both should be used to monitor the transport of the gulf stream corrosion and Antarctic circumpolar currents in selected locations such as is planned for the drake passage as part of the international southern ocean studies isos the water mass balance of individual basins such as the Arctic should also be monitored monitor the complete temperature structure in selected regions of the ocean such as meridional cross sections through the major gyral circulations the several long-term local observational series such as the panularis plymouth and mermansk sections should be maintained and new efforts started in regions of special interest monitor the vertical salinity structure of the oceans in those high latitude regions where salinity plays an important role in determining the density field of the upper ocean layers near surface salinity is also important in regions where ocean bottom water is formed such as in the wettel sea this might best be done by a combination of moored buoys and ship observations monitor the large-scale distribution of sea level by the use of an expanded network of tide gauges such a measurement program at island sites in the equatorial pacific is being undertaken in connection with nor packs and other measurements are planned in the indian ocean as part of the indian ocean experiment index radar altimeters such as those proposed for the c sat a satellite should also be useful for this purpose monitor the oceanic chemical composition at selected sites and in selected sections including the concentration of dissolved gases and tray substances such measurements now being performed as part of the geosex program should be expanded and continued cryospheric indices in view of the great influence of snow and ice cover on the surface energy balance further efforts should be made to monitor the distribution of sea ice in the polar oceans and the ice in major lakes and estuaries efforts should also be made to measure as many as possible of the ice's physical properties by remote sensing devote further study to the current mass budgets of the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps from both glaciological field observations and from airborne and satellite measurements such observations should include changes in ice edge locations and the numbers and sizes of icebergs and in the ice caps fern line height methods for the remote aerial sensing of surface temperature and possibly ice accumulation rate should also be further developed extend the monitoring of the movement and mass budget of selected mountain glaciers monitor the extent depth and characteristics of worldwide snow cover surface and hydrologic indices in association with the monitoring of the elements of the surface heat balance and of the various oceanic and cryospheric climatic indices initially lower priority but nevertheless important efforts should be made to monitor the natural changes of surface vegetative cover possibly by observations from earth resources satellites monitor the variations of soil moisture and groundwater possibly by satellite based techniques monitor the flow and discharge of the major river systems of the world monitor the level and water balance of the major lakes of the world monitor the total precipitation especially rainfall over the oceans possibly by satellite born radar observations and surface gauges composition and turbidity indices in view of the role that atmospheric constituents and aerosols play in the heat balance of the atmosphere further efforts should be made to monitor the chemical composition of the atmosphere at a number of sites throughout the world with particular reference to the content of co2 measurements such as those at monoloa should be continued and extended to additional selected sites the composition of the higher atmosphere should also be periodically determined especially the water vapor in the stratosphere and the ozone concentration in the stratosphere and mesosphere monitor the total aerosol and dust loading of the atmosphere together with determinations of the vertical and horizontal aerosol distribution by an extension of such programs as n cars global atmospheric aerosol study or g a r s in addition to turbidity measurements the aerosol particle size distribution and optical properties should be determined when possible efforts should also be made to monitor the occurrence of large-scale forest fires and volcanic eruptions together with estimates of their particular loading of the atmosphere anthropogenic indices in view of man's increasing interference with the environment further efforts should be made to monitor the addition of waste heat into the atmosphere and ocean although the present levels of thermal pollution are relatively small on a global basis steadily increasing levels of energy generation pose a threat to the stability of at least the local climate and possibly the larger scale climate as well therefore both the local thermal discharges of power generating and industrial facilities should be monitored along with the thermal pollution from urbanized areas monitor the climate sensitive chemical pollution of the atmosphere and ocean measurement programs such as those of the environmental protection agency and the atomic energy commission should be expanded on a global basis and extended to the oceans monitor the changes of large-scale land use including forest clearing irrigation and urbanization possibly by the use of earth resources satellites summary of climatic index monitoring a summary of the elements of the recommended program is given in table 6.1 here we have not made an assessment of the required accuracy of the various monitored indices nor has the capability of presently available instrumentation been thoroughly reviewed further analysis is also needed to determine the characteristic variability of each climatic index in general the surface heat and hydrologic balances should be monitored with an accuracy of a few percent so that space and time-averaged climatic statistics will have at least a five percent accuracy it is important that this monitoring activity be undertaken on a continuing and long-term basis for at least two decades in order to assemble a meaningful body of data for climatic analyses as noted below these efforts should be coordinated on an international scale and be part of an international climatic program end of section six recording by warren coddy gurney illinois section seven of understanding climatic change this is a libra vox recording all libra vox recordings are in the public domain for more information or to volunteer please visit libra vox.org recording by warren coddy gurney illinois understanding climatic change a program for action by the u.s committee for the global atmospheric research program section seven a national climatic research program part two research needed on climatic variation we here outline the research that we believe needs to be performed in terms of model development theoretical research and empirical and diagnostic studies while research in some of these areas is already underway as part of garb activities in anticipation of the fgge these efforts are the necessary ingredients of the much broader climatic research program that we recommend be carried out in the years ahead theoretical studies of climatic change mechanisms we recognize the importance of theoretical studies in a problem as complex as climatic variation and the essential interaction that must take place between theory and the complementary observational and numerical modeling studies our present knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic variation is so meager however and progress in this area is so difficult to anticipate that any recommendations are subject to modification as new avenues of attack open up or as old ones prove fruitless there are however certain fundamental problems to which further study must be directed the question of the degree of predictability of natural climatic change must be given further theoretical attention while the local details of whether do not appear to be predictable beyond a few weeks time the consequences of this fact for climatic variations are not clear in such studies a clear definition of the internal climatic system needs to be made and particular attention must be given to the roles of the ocean and ice this question has an obvious and important bearing on our eventual capability to predict climatic variation the related question of the possible intransitivity of climatic states needs further study again with particular attention to the oceans and ice the whole question of climatic variation may be viewed as a stability problem for a system containing elements with very different time constants and support should be given to such theoretical approaches theoretical research should be directed to the nature and stability of the various climatic feedback mechanisms identified earlier particularly those involving the sea surface temperature cloudiness albedo and land surface character further theoretical research should be directed to the general problem of the development of statistical hydrodynamical representations of climate and to the parameterization of transient phenomena on a variety of time and space scales additional theoretical studies should also be made of specific climatic phenomena such as drought and the growth of arid regions ice ages and the stability of polar ice cover and the effects of global pollution from natural and artificial sources atmospheric general circulation models the global dynamical models of the atmospheric general circulation or GCMs that have been developed in recent years represent the most sophisticated mathematical tools ever available for the study of this system and are the testing grounds for many of our theoretical ideas the latest versions of these models C appendix B embody much of the physics that governs the larger scales of atmospheric behavior along with physical parameterizations of smaller scale processes in addition to the simulation of the free air temperature pressure wind and humidity distributions over the globe with a resolution of several hundred kilometers such atmospheric models provide solutions for the various components of the heat and moisture balances such as the fluxes of short wave and longwave radiation sensible heat flux evaporation precipitation surface runoff and ground temperature the surface boundary conditions usually assumed are the distributions of sea surface temperature and sea ice and the assumption of a heat balance over land surfaces after a spin up period of a month or so during which the temperature comes into statistical equilibrium with the sun's heating in the ocean surface temperature the average global climate simulated by such models shows a reasonable resemblance to observation several examples of such simulations are shown in appendix B in order to improve the fidelity of such global atmospheric models for the simulation of the various processes of climatic change and to ensure their increased availability for the conduct of climatic experiments efforts should be made to improve the models treatment of clouds especially those of the non precipitating high altitude cirrus and the low level stratus type account should be taken of the liquid water content of clouds and the full interaction of clouds with atmospheric radiative transfer attention should also be given to the modeling of cloud evaporation and advection improve the parameterization of turbulent convective and mesoscale processes by comparing the performance of alternative schemes against appropriate observations of the fluxes of heat moisture and momentum particular attention should be given to improved parameterizations of the fluxes within the surface boundary layer to the parameterization of cumulus convection and to the treatment of energy flux by gravity waves improve the treatment of ground cover and land usage in the calculation of the surface heat and moisture balances particular attention should be given to the improvement of the prognostic schemes for snow cover as this may prove of importance in seasonal climatic variations parameterize the role of aerosols in such models so that the effects of both natural and anthropogenic particulates on the heating rate of the atmosphere may be determined improve the numerical resolution of the solutions by the use of finer grids or the use of graded meshes in regions of special interest and increase the computational efficiency by the development of more accurate numerical algorithms and improved solution methods simulate the annual cycle of atmospheric circulation with models using observed forcing functions to obtain the surface fluxes of heat momentum and water vapor such numerical integrations are necessary in order to ensure adequate model calibration and to simulate climatic statistics for the atmosphere determine the noise level or sensitivity of the model simulated climate to changes in the initial conditions including random errors and to changes in the parameterizations of the model such studies are necessary in order to determine the physical significance of numerical climate change experiments made with atmospheric models oceanic general circulation models the oceanic general circulation models or GCMs are generally at a less advanced stage of development than their atmospheric counterparts and have only recently been extended to the global ocean see appendix B with the surface boundary conditions of specified thermal forcing and wind stress plus the kinematic and insulated wall boundary conditions at the bottom and lateral sides of the ocean basin such models simulate with fair accuracy the large scale distributions of ocean temperature and current with a resolution of several hundred kilometers if the density structure is specified from observations a model will spin up from rest in a few months time and show a reasonable correspondence with observed drift current patterns at the surface the simulated transport of the major western boundary currents in the models is generally less than that indicated by available observations but nevertheless quantitatively more accurate than the predictions of previous theories areas of coastal and equatorial upwelling show the same strong relationship to the surface wind stress pattern in the model as is observed in the real ocean the more relevant calculation with respect to climate modeling is one in which the density field as well as the velocity field is predicted from boundary conditions that determine the vertical flux of momentum heat and water at the ocean surface however this problem involves much longer time scales the spin up time of a pre stratified ocean is of the order of two or three decades but if changes in the abyssal thermal structure are to be predicted then the turnover time of the ocean is the order of several centuries preliminary results see for example brian and cox 1968 show that such models can successfully simulate the gross features of the density structure of the world ocean although more detailed calculations must be made to provide a critical test in order to improve the accuracy of ocean models and to lay the foundation for their successful coupling with atmospheric models efforts should be made to improve our knowledge of the structure behavior and role of mesoscale eddies in the ocean in the atmosphere there is a peak in kinetic energy spectrum observed at wavelengths of a few thousand kilometers whereas in the ocean the peak kinetic energy is in eddies that have a radius or quarter wavelength of the order of 10 to the second kilometers thus an ocean circulation model requires about an order of magnitude greater horizontal resolution to resolve its most energetic eddies than does an atmospheric gcm further field studies such as those conducted under the mid ocean dynamics experiment or mode the north pacific experiment nor packs and those planned under the joint soviet-american poly mode experiment are needed to determine the transfer of heat and momentum by such eddies such observational experiments should provide the basis for the interpretation of high-resolution numerical experiments which are necessary to resolve the details of the eddy motions and to establish their role in the oceanic general circulation intensify research on the parameterization of turbulent and mesoscale motions both in the surfaced mixed layer and the deeper ocean layers including thermohaline convection so that the results of field measurements may be usefully incorporated into global ocean circulation models improve the prediction of sea surface temperature and heat transport by the inclusion of the depth and structure of the surfaced mixed layer as a predicted variable in oceanic general circulation models this should include experiments on the numerical forecasting of the oceanic surface layer as driven by observed surface conditions and the formation and behavior of pools of a nominously warm or cold water simulate the annual cycle of sea surface temperature and currents with models using observed forcing functions to obtain the surface fluxes of momentum heat and water precipitation minus evaporation such numerical integrations must be carried out over several annual cycles in order to ensure adequate model calibration and to simulate climatic statistics for the ocean subject the ocean models to the same kind of diagnostic testing and sensitivity analysis as performed for atmospheric models in order to determine the roles of possible oceanic feedback processes and the levels of predictability associated with various oceanic variables apply high resolution versions of global oceanic circulation models or regional versions thereof to the study of the behavior of local intense currents such as the eddying motion of western boundary currents and the structure of equatorial currents develop more accurate models of sea ice which include the effects of salinity and the dynamic and thermodynamic factors governing the distribution of the polar ice packs the database being assembled by the arctic ice dynamics joint experiment or aid checks in the Beaufort sea should be useful in the design of models that can predict those properties of the polar ice pack that are important in the surface heat balance such as the ice thickness and the occurrence of open water leads search for new computational algorithms for predicting oceanic circulation that will provide the greatest accuracy for the least possible cost at present the methods used in modeling the ocean are similar to those used in the atmospheric gcms the presence of lateral boundaries and the need to resolve mesoscale motions may make alternative numerical methods of particular use in numerical ocean models coupled global atmosphere ocean models tests of climatic change extending over one or more years are not adequate unless they are made with the model of the coupled ocean atmosphere system while the uncoupled atmospheric and oceanic gcms are useful for many purposes the thermal and mechanical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere is fundamental to climatic variation we note that a global ocean model may require only a fraction of the computational effort needed by an atmospheric gcm of the same resolution but emphasize that care must be taken to avoid erroneous drift in the simulated climate due to systematic biases in the model or in the oceanic initial state assuming that coupled models cgcms will incorporate the developments and improvements recommended above for the separate atmospheric and oceanic models emphasis should be given to the following research with cgcms investigation of the simulated climatic variability on seasonal and annual time scales of all climatic variables of the coupled system including the simulated exchange processes at the air-sea interface of particular importance in the coupled models is the simulation of the sea surface temperature as this has a key role in the evolution of the system this will require integration over many years of simulated time in order to generate adequate climatic statistics and to examine the model stability particular attention should be given to evidence of climatic trends and in transitivity and the numerical solutions the statistics of such simulations with cgcms will also prove valuable in the calibration of statistical climate models the sensitivity of the climate simulated by coupled models should be systematically examined in experiments extending at least through an annual cycle these studies should include the climatic consequences of uncertainties in the simulation's initial state including random errors in the parameterization of the various physical processes such as convection and cloudiness boundary layer fluxes and mesoscale oceanic eddies and in the computational procedures such studies are necessary in order to establish the characteristic noise levels of the models and are of great importance in the use of the models for climate experiments a program of climate change hypothesis testing should be undertaken with coupled models as soon as their stability and calibration are reasonably assured this should include examination of the various feedback mechanisms among components of the climatic system such as ice and snow cloudiness sea surface temperature albedo radiation and convection the coupled models should be used in a program of long-range integrations with observed initial and boundary conditions in order to assess both their overall fidelity and their usefulness as long-range or climatic forecasting tools although not a research task in itself special efforts should be made to appropriately store analyze and display the rather staggering amounts of data generated during the integration of CGCMs so that subsequent diagnosis can be performed efficiently statistical dynamical climate models although the coupled numerical models of the global circulation offer the most comprehensive and detailed solutions available even with the fastest computers envisaged relatively few century long climatic simulations will be possible and it is likely that none will be performed for periods as long as a millennium such models will therefore find their greatest use in climatic research in the exploration of the character of relatively short period say annual to decadal climatic variations and in the calibration of other less detailed models we therefore emphasize that statistical dynamical climate models defined as those in which the structure and motion of the individual large-scale transient disturbances are not resolved in detail will have to be used to simulate the longer period climatic variations while such models provide less resolution of the details of climatic change they may display less climatic noise than do the global circulation models in order to ensure the availability of the hierarchy of models needed in a comprehensive research program on climatic change the following research should be carried out statistical dynamical models of the coupled time dependent atmospheric and oceanic circulation should be constructed and calibrated that embody suitable time and space averaged representations of the climatic elements in their extreme form such models address the study state globally averaged quantities while others for example consider time dependent zonally averaged variables further efforts should be made to represent the climatically important land sea distribution in such models and to calibrate them systematically against observations as well as against other climatic models simulation of climatic variation over extended time periods should be made by the integration of suitably calibrated time dependent statistical dynamical models depending on the time range appropriate components of the climatic systems atmosphere hydrosphere cryosphere lithosphere and biosphere should be introduced along with appropriate variations of the external boundary conditions see figures three point one and three point two coupled time dependent models in which the global circulation is represented by low order spatial resolution should also be further developed such as those using a limited number of orthogonal components or spectral modes coupled models should be constructed and calibrated that embody new forms of time averaged representations of the climatic system we recognize that the parameterization of the effects of the transient eddies poses a difficult problem in statistical hydrodynamics and urge that full use be made of both model generated and observed statistics as well as of theory to develop a variety of such models for different types and ranges of time averaging in each type of statistical dynamical model particular attention should be given to the inclusion of the ocean and ice in such models attention should also be given to the possibility of treating the atmosphere statistically while simulating the ocean in detail and perhaps of treating both the atmosphere and ocean statistically while simulating the growth of ice sheets in detail it is particularly important that such models be calibrated with respect to both the mean and variance of the climatic elements and that their stability and sensitivity be systematically determined empirical and diagnostic studies of climatic variation although we have recommended some diagnostic and empirical studies in connection with the analysis of instrumental and proxy climatic data such studies should also be made on a phenomenological basis as part of the climatic analysis and research program as the record of past climates is made more complete there will be increased opportunity to carry out such investigations with both instrumental and proxy data in particular studies should be made of the temporal and spatial correlations among various data including regional and global estimates of the trends of key climatic elements such as temperature and precipitation further empirical studies should be made of the surface oceanic variables of temperature salinity sea level and sea ice and of the planetary heat balance albedo and cloudiness from satellite-based observations the studies of burkness 1969 kukla and kukla 1974 namayas 1972 a and wortsky 1973 are examples of the sort of empirical synthesis that can be achieved and should be systematically extended to other regions of the world and to other climatic variables in these efforts particular attention should be given to the various possible climatic feedback processes and to the forcing functions of the general circulation here the diagnostic use of climatic models should prove valuable further studies should be made of the statistical characteristics of climatic data both observed and simulated power spectrum analyses should be made for as many variables and locations as possible and with the longest records available as the spectrum's redness has an important bearing on questions of climatic cycles and climate prediction needed applications of climatic studies although closely related to the climatic data analysis and climatic research recommended above the needed applications of climatic studies and of climate models in particular are so important that they warrant identification as a separate component of the program it is in these applications that the program reaches its fruition and if attention to them is delayed until our understanding is complete or our models perfect they may never be undertaken with due regard for scientific caution we believe that the time has come for a vigorous attack on the areas of climate model application described below simulation of the earth's climatic history the evidence presented in appendix a and summarized in chapter four shows that the climatic history of the earth has been remarkably variable and that this history provides information that is of value in the study of present and possible future climates the data assembled by paleo climatologists show conclusively that the flora fauna and surface characteristics of many regions of the world have often been markedly different in past times than they are today compared with this long period panorama instrumental observations provide a frustratingly short record it is at this juncture that the intersection of paleo climatic and numerical modeling studies offers the most promise the global climatic models have the potential ability to simulate at least a near equilibrium approximation to past climates subject to the appropriate geological boundary conditions while the paleo climatic records can be used as verification data initial efforts in this direction have already begun see chapter five and we may expect increasing insight into the nature of past climates as both the models and proxy database improve in order to explore the nature of past climates systematically and to lay the foundation for the study of possible future climates the following studies should be made the geophysical boundary conditions at a number of selected times in the history of the earth should be systematically assembled with a view toward their use in climate models this should include global data on the continental and mass positions and elevations sea level ice sheet elevations and margins see ice extent soil type and vegetative cover and surface albedo estimates should also be made of the earth's rotation rate and of the solar insulation due to orbital parameter changes the selection of the time period might be based on criteria such as the occurrence of an ice age the distribution of the continents and mountains the opening or closing of a major oceanic passage or the large-scale flooding or draining of lowlands periods of particular climatic stress such as indicated by the disappearance of species might also be considered the various proxy records of temperature salinity and precipitation should also be systematically assembled for the same selected times to serve as verification data for the coupled climate models simulations and as possible input or boundary conditions for uncoupled models dynamical global models should be used to simulate the quasi equilibrium paleo climate at selected times in the past when the boundary conditions external to the ocean atmosphere system can be reasonably well specified such experiments should be focused on times when the global climate might be expected to be in a particularly interesting state as judged from the available geological and proxy evidence or when the climate might be expected to be in the process of changing most rapidly from one characteristic regime to another the simulations should extend long enough to accumulate realistic climatic statistics and should use the assembled paleo climatic data for verification by using part of the paleo climatic evidence namely the sea surface temperature as a boundary condition atmospheric GCMs may also be used for this purpose coupled statistical dynamical models or other coupled climate models should be used to simulate the time dependent climatic evolution between the various equilibrium states identified above for this application the dynamics of ice sheets should be incorporated into the coupled ocean atmosphere models and note taken of the possible time dependence of the remaining boundary conditions such as solar radiation and continental drift in particular the astronomical changes of seasonal radiation resulting from the variation of the earth's orbital parameters should be incorporated in a climate model and the resulting simulated climatic changes compared with the paleo climatic evidence this recommendation parallels one made earlier in connection with the development of the statistical dynamical models themselves studies should be made of possible methods to accelerate the simulation of quasi equilibrium climatic states in the global circulation models so that realistic statistics can be obtained without integration over long time periods exploration of possible future climates one of the most important applications of climate models is the systematic conduct and evaluation of climatic experiments designed to explore the effects of either natural or anthropogenic changes in the system it is from such model based experiments calibrated with respect to observed behavior that we must draw our conclusions as to how the climatic system operates and on which we should base our projections of likely future climates the program in this area should include the determination of the global climatic effects of the following with both coupled global circulation models and parameterized models the changes of incoming solar radiation these experiments should be performed with coupled models in view of the dominance of the oceans in the planetary heat storage and should include changes in both the amount and spectral distribution of solar radiation the changes of land surface character and albedo as introduced by deforestation urbanization irrigation and changes of agricultural practices the changes of cloudiness these experiments should consider the effects of the introduction or removal of both condensation and freezing nuclei and the production of artificial clouds by aircraft the changes of evaporation as introduced by reservoirs irrigation and transpiration the disposal of waste heat these experiments should be made with coupled models and should include a broad range of rates and locations of heat release in both atmosphere and ocean the introduction of dust and particulates into the troposphere the stratosphere or both these experiments should consider the effects of scattering absorption fallout and scavenging by precipitation and should be designed to simulate the effects of both man-made pollution and volcanic dust the partial or complete removal of the Arctic sea ice or the Antarctic ice sheet these experiments should be performed with a coupled model that includes the mass and heat budget of pack ice the diversion of ocean currents these experiments should be performed with coupled models in climatic simulations of this kind the physical basis of each experiment should be carefully examined in order to ensure the adequacy of the particular model or models to be employed the experiments suggested above are those that we believe should be performed as part of the climatic research program as they involve processes or areas of likely maximum climatic sensitivity or changes to which the climate's response is relatively uncertain and or they represent conceivable or in some cases likely future alterations by nature or by man it is important in such climatic experiments that the synoptic and statistical significance of the results be carefully examined this should include the repetition of the experiment under slightly different but admissible conditions to determine its stability and noise level and the analysis of independent simulations with other models only in this way can we hope to accumulate the necessary experimental knowledge on which to base our expectations of future climatic states this together with a knowledge gained from the observational and research portions of the program outlined above will lay the scientific foundation for what might be called climatic engineering development of long range or climatic forecasting a third important area of application of climatic studies is the problem of long range or climatic forecasting on timescales of months seasons and years there have been numerous studies of this question almost since the beginning of recorded observations this research has not solved the problem but has at least identified some of its ingredients we believe that further efforts should be made to systematically acquire the data and perform the research necessary to attack this problem anew especially with the aid of climatic models clearly the demand for climatic or long range forecasts greatly exceeds present capability an accurate prediction of the temperature or rainfall anomaly over say the central plains of north america or over the ukraine a decade a year or even a season in advance would be of great value and even a somewhat less accurate but reliable prediction of the likelihood of such anomalies would be of great use to those involved in agriculture energy supply allocation and commerce at present the skill of the experimental long range outlooks prepared by the national weather service for the 30 day temperature anomaly at some 100 u.s cities is only 11 greater than chance and only 2 greater than chance for the 30 day precipitation anomaly these forecasts are principally prepared by a mixture of empirical and statistical methods and have also been applied to the seasonal prediction of temperature namayas 1968 the ability of numerical models to perform useful long range or climatic forecasting i.e. forecasts over monthly seasonal or annual periods has not been systematically examined because of the large amounts of computation involved and the unavailability of suitable models such efforts must also contend with the crucial questions of climatic predictability noted in chapter 3 and the long-range stability of the models themselves we believe that further attention should be given to these problems using the expanded database the coupled dynamical models and the new computer resources called for in the climatic program we therefore recommend that the coupled global circulation models should be systematically applied to the preparation of a series of long-range forecasts using observed initial conditions wherever possible these integrations should extend over at least several seasons well beyond the limit of local predictability appropriate climatic statistics should be drawn from these integrations and systematically compared with the observed variations of all the climatic elements available and statistically analyzed for possibly significant trends of regional climatic anomalies these statistical dynamical models and other appropriate members of the parameterized climate model hierarchy should be used in the preparation of similar long-range forecasts systematic empirical and diagnostic studies of longer period variations in the climatic system should be undertaken with the aid of models and the expanding database of monitored variables assessment of climates impact on man while the above efforts are concerned with the physical aspects of the problem of climatic variation a climatic research program should also include studies of the impact of climate and climatic change on man himself this is best done with the guidance and insight provided by climate models while many studies have been made in this important area such as those of the department of transportation's climatic impact assessment program or cip more comprehensive research should be undertaken on a long-term basis these studies may be characterized as seeking answers to such questions as what is a one degree change of mean winter temperature worth after all or even climatic variation so what the study of the impacts of climatic variations on man is also a way of establishing priorities for research climate and food water and energy that climate has a dominant influence on agricultural food production water supply and the generation and use of energy is generally recognized the kinds and amounts of crops that may be grown in various regions the water available for domestic agricultural and industrial use and the consumption of electrical energy and fossil fuels all depend in large measure on the distribution of temperature rainfall and sunshine during the global warming of the first part of this century for example the average length of the growing season in england as measured by the duration of temperatures above 42 degrees fahrenheit increased by two to three weeks and during the most recent cooling trend since the 1940s has undergone a comparable shortening davis 1972 although maunder 1970 johnson and smith 1965 and others have surveyed the vast literature on the effects of climatic change on man further quantification of these effects is needed particularly as a function of the time and space skills of atmospheric variability accordingly we recommend that research be devoted to the following the systematic assembly from both national and international sources of data on worldwide food production and the analysis of their response and sensitivity to variations of climate on monthly and seasonal time scales such analyses should then be used to model or simulate the total agricultural response to hypothetical climatic variations we note in some cases it may be the variance or extremes of climate rather than the averages themselves that will prove to be the more important factor an applied system study of this problem has been recently initiated by r.a. brison and colleagues at the university of wisconsin with the aim of developing predictive relationships between climate and food supply which will be useful for policy decisions the systematic assembly of worldwide data on available water supply both from rainfall and snowpack and its patterns of use and loss analysis should then be undertaken of the water supply systems response and sensitivity to variations of climate and simulation models constructed the systematic assembly of worldwide data on the production and use of energy and the determination of its response and sensitivity to climatic variations as in the cases of food and water simulation models should be constructed so that the consequences of various patterns of hypothetical climatic change can be estimated social and economic impacts although it is difficult to obtain useful measures of the social and economic impacts of climatic change increased attention should be given to this aspect of the problem this is a problem in which the noise level of non-climatic factors is very high and for which the physical scientists knowledge must be supplemented by the skills and methods of social and political scientists the goal of this research should be the development of an overall model of societal response to climatic change this is an area in which international cooperation should be sought and efforts such as those now being proposed by the international federation of institutes of advanced study should be supported and expanded end of section seven recording by warren coddy gurney illinois


So let's try this one. This one is essentially a NMR problem, but we've also got a mass spec and IR alongside with it. So it says here that the mass spec, the M plus peak at MZ equals 73. Can you tell us anything about that? That's 73. So it's the parent on R, right? So what is the being of? What does that tell us? That's a nitrogen, right? Okay. So it has a nitrogen. So that's one thing we want to remember, okay? Nitrogen's 14, so we can take that away from there and we can figure out how many carbons it has from there, right? So how many carbons do you think this thing has? Four, right? Because if we take 4 times 12, right, that's going to give us 48, then we add 14, and then we'll just have enough room for the hydrogen, right? So it's going to be C4 and what's the H? It's going to be actually a whole lot. And you can tell that when we look here, right? So we have 6 hydrogens, 4 hydrogens, 100. So that adds up to 11. So what is this telling us here? This is 3350. It's not the CN bond, but it's the NH bond. And it's telling us that it's only a single band. So what does that tell us? One hydrogen there, right? In other words, it's a secondary amine, right? Isn't that what you mean to say? Okay, it's a secondary amine. So which one of these three peaks on the NMR is this hydrogen corresponding to? This first one, the second one, or the third? The first one, why would you guess that? Because there's only one H, right? Okay, so that's good. In fact, let's go ahead and kind of draw what the NMR looks like. So we can kind of see it, right? So what do we got? 1.0? So we'll say that's like 1.0. So 1.05, that's somewhere around there, right? We're going to see something that looks like that. And then at 1.15, we'll have a triplet of something that looks like that, okay? And then at 2, we'll say 2.65, so somewhere around there we're going to have a quartet that looks like that, okay? So this says one hydrogen there, six hydrogens there, and four hydrogens there. Okay, so that one hydrogen passed the correspond to that. What is this saying if we've got a triplet? What does that tell us? A triplet? That there's two neighboring hydrogens, okay? But this says four, right? What does that mean? That's not two. Two groups are equivalent, right? And that gives you a clue here, right? So those six hydrogens, there's two methyl groups that are equivalent to each other, okay? So effectively, if this was three and this was two, we made a triplet and a quartet, what would we expect that to look like? An ethyl group, right? So if those two are equivalent, what does this thing look like? It's symmetrical, it's got two ethyl groups on it, okay? That's the model for that, okay? So this is called di-ethylene. Are there any questions on how to do that one? Questions? Are we still recording? Okay, pretty straightforward. This one was really nice because it gave us a lot of things to remind ourselves, you know? If we have the odd, remember there's the nitrogen in it. At 3350, right? We're even going to have a single or double van. The weak tells us that it's the NH bond as opposed to like the OH bond, which would be very strong, okay? But a single van that's telling us that it's a secondary thing as opposed to a primary, okay? Because if it was two vans, then we'd have a primary thing. And then of course, going through the analysis here, you can see that the six to four that those two groups are equivalent, okay? Are there any questions now on this? I think I went over everything about it twice. Okay, good job.


So let's take a look at a few more trigonometric substitutions. So how about this integral of 1 over x squared square root of x squared minus 4? So since the square root is the problematic part of this integral, we'll want to draw a right triangle where x squared minus 4 occurs naturally. And since x is x squared and 4 is 2 squared, we'll want a triangle with sides of x2 and square root of x squared minus 4. If you don't play, you can't win, so let's try to draw such a triangle. Setting up our Pythagorean relationship, making x and 2 the lengths of the legs of the right triangle does not give us a right triangle where x squared minus 4 appears naturally. So let's switch which sides have which lengths. For example, we might make our hypotenuse have length 2. Find the Pythagorean relationship, do a little algebra, and we have something that's not x squared minus 4. So we'll try again, this time making x the hypotenuse. We'll write our Pythagorean relationship, do a little algebra, and finally we have a triangle where x squared minus 4 appears naturally. We need our angle. Since the problematic part of this integral is the square root of x squared minus 4, we should look to a trigonometric function that incorporates it, and that's either going to be sine or tangent. However, tangent, because it's opposite over adjacent, will give us the easier expression. So we'll start with that. The integrand also includes x squared, which means that somehow we want to incorporate the hypotenuse, and we have our choice of functions, but the easiest is going to be relating the hypotenuse to the adjacent side. So that'll either be cosine or secant, and in this case, secant is easier. So let's do a little bit of algebra, and let's find our differential. So we'll substitute x squared is going to be 4 secant squared theta. Squared of x squared minus 4 is 2 tangent theta. And finally, dx is, we'll do what algebraic simplification we can, and after all the dust settles, we're ready to do some calculus. So let's integrate. And we have one-quarter sine theta plus c. Since we started in x, we end in x. So we'll pull up our picture, and from our picture we see that sine of theta is opposite over hypotenuse, and making that final substitution gives us our answer for the indefinite integral. Sometimes we have to do a little bit more work. Here we want to find the integral of 1 over squared 6 minus 2x minus x squared. And again, we're looking for a triangle where square root 6 minus 2x minus x squared appears naturally. Since our Pythagorean relationship is expressed in terms of squares, it's easiest if our variable terms can be reduced to a perfect square. So let's do that. 6 minus 2x minus x squared is 6 minus 2x plus x squared. We'll complete the square by adding one on the inside of the parentheses. But since we don't want to change the expression, that also means we'll have to add one on the outside of the parentheses. And so our expression is 7 minus x plus 1 squared. And so that means we want a triangle where one side is square root 7, another side is x plus 1, and the third side is square root 6 minus 2x minus x squared. And one possibility is, and we note that sine of theta x plus 1 over square root 7, and why not cosine theta square root 6 minus 2x minus x squared over square root 7. We do want to be able to solve for an expression in x so we can find dx. So let's go ahead and work that sine expression. And we'll use our simpler substitution, square root 7 sine theta equals x plus 1, and so differentiating root 7 cosine theta d theta equals dx. Since we want to do something with this square root 6 minus 2x minus x squared, we might want to solve our cosine relationship, making our substitutions. We can simplify, then integrate, we get theta plus c, and we start it in x, so we should end in x. Theta is going to be arc sine of x plus 1 over root 7.


Well, I was so excited to find this squishmallow. Hey, fellow buddies, thanks for watching. Let's get started. Who doesn't comp out as high as I had hoped. And the newer tag ones do okay, but it's a little bit of a hot mess on the bottom. So I'm going to see if I can get it clean. It does say that you can wash them in the washing machine, but this is a big guy. So I'm going to keep you guys posted, but this is the before. All right. So I put some dry powder. I should say Norwex soap and I got it wet and put it on this Norwex rag. So it's just water and dry soap and I put it on this towel and I have rubbed it into this towel. And I just basically scrubbed it. You can see like some remnants where I didn't get it all the way in. But I just really ran it across the bottom of here and it looks pretty good. Now I'm just going to throw it into my washing machine and I'm going to put it on a. What do you call it? Cold. It says to wash it cold here. Let me get the. Here is the. It says machine wash cold tumble dry low heat. So that's what I'm going to do. And I'm going to hope when it comes out, it's going to be perfect. Here's another spot. I'm going to spot clean it real quick. So basically I'm spot cleaning before I put it in the washing machine. That's what I'm doing now. All right. So it's off its back. It looks like there's a spot right here. I'm going to get that real quick. It's gone and I've used this Norwex before. It's really, really fantastic. So it's face. I'm going to get that now. Good to go. All right. So now we're going to wash it in the washing machine and see how it comes out. Okay.  Low and light. You're going to hit start. It's going to soak it. Here it goes. This squishmallow is going to go for a ride. All right.  We're going to let this cycle go for 35 minutes and then I'm going to pull it out and I'm going to put it into whoa. That is fast. I'm going to put it into the dryer on low heat and then I'm going to pull it out and we are going to see if those stains or marks are gone. So stay tuned. All right. Washing machine is done. Face looks clean. Body looks clean. I do want to actually get it dry because I think we'll be able to tell a lot better if all of that staining came out. But there were some stains on the top. And when I say stains, I mean marks, I guess I really don't know if they were stains. But I will say that I have used the Norwex Laundry Detergent in the past to get things out like marker and stuff that have been on items for a long time. And I really, really like it. So who knows? Who knows what was on this thing? It's staining from a garage sale, but it's looking really fresh and clean. So I am going to toss it in the dryer. Oh, look, there's a dime. A lucky dime. All right. Here it goes. Now I have one of those big dryers. So you can tell this guy is big. He is big. All right. Let's power it on. Let's put it on. It's already on low. I don't know. This thing is massive. What do you guys think? 45 minutes? We'll try 45 minutes. All right. Let's see what happens. All right. Let's see if it is clean and it looks amazing. It's perfect. 100% clean. Brilliant. She looks amazing. Looks great. Be sure to check out the description of the video. Like, comment, share and subscribe. Thanks for watching.


Alrighty, I have a very small construction update today because it's like they almost didn't do that much although Snoopy's I mean they got the launch shed up and they're about to get the first launch shed up as well You can kind of see them starting it there. So that's really exciting But not too much outside of that to be honest. I'm kind of shocked like Snoopy's like I never see the construction workers anymore. So they work really low hours. Maybe I don't know It's just like I never see them working that often as much as I see like every time I fly tundra is always working the construction workers are always there So I just found that a little interesting, but nonetheless tundra twister very slow movement now Okay, I was expecting to see the op booth up. You can see the queue line that giant rectangular Slab there that's gonna be the queue line and then you'll see three prongs sticking out of the ground Right at the end of it over there. That's what I assume is going to be the op booth You can see where the staircase and the elevator is gonna go right off to the right of the queue line And yeah, they're getting a lot of electrical setup as you can see someone's up there on the top where the The motors are and then on top of that they've been working on the electrical room and all that jazz So again, not much movement with tundra twister not as much as I was expecting I will be there tomorrow filming as always again I'll be there daily the paint job on vortex is coming along really quickly a lot quicker than I was expecting I thought I would take them like three weeks, but it looks like it's gonna hardly take them two weeks At this rate and then front gate right now not much to show you, but I just wanted to show you guys Anyways, thanks so much for watching today's update. Have a good one guys. Bye


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Let me tell you how it happened Hey, what's up guys? This is Jonas Blue and we are here on the set in New York City Central Park for my brand new music video Polaroid feature in Liam Payne and Lennon Stella Sort of an aunt song, so you kind of have to, you kind of get in the mood a little bit I love this song, when I first heard it, like I was so excited The sun is shining, I feel amazing But this is gonna be on MTV Oh my god, that's the, I'm so excited It's just the dream This Polaroid is the set in New York City Let's do this! Oh my god James has done his opening scene Absolutely incredible So we're doing a nice little walk and shop The light's beautiful right now With all the nature Really early, it's like, 10 o'clock in the morning for a rave But still, we're here for it There was a lot of screaming girls that were very excited to see Liam There's a lot of people now gathering, I think I've got the idea that we're here Hello, a lot of people watching The story of the song was basically that love at first sight And as soon as I was writing it, we knew it was for Liam We have a second shot on the Polaroid video shoot And we're here, there's a few of watches in Tedry Park Tensions are rising, it's absolutely incredible Yeah, second shot, here we go Honestly, like the best day, it's like very good vibes on set There's something wonderful about Lennon's voice as well They can't even capture it I just checked her out on YouTube and Instagram And I just love the sound of her voice I'm sure she's got a very huge and massive long career ahead of her This backdrop is just incredible So you'll have me, Pan, Yano, Pan, Polaroid We're gonna get into it right now With all three of us on the set for the first time That is a wrap, thank you so-