Jason, over to you. Thank you, Steve. So it's a pleasure to be here. What I would like to talk about is two activities that we have been doing in the open group. Health care has only been a forum in the open group for five years, and it was a board-mandated forum, and a slightly different way to come into the organization. But I think you'll see that we have been busy. I want to talk about a reference architecture, a framework that we call the O'Hara, and then talk about something that we recently acquired, I guess, from the US federal government called the THM, which is an information model. Just a little background. How many people here care about their health? OK, I actually noticed a few people without their hands up, and I'm going to come to you afterwards, because I find that interesting. The health care industry is truly one of the largest worldwide. Its growth is one of the fastest among all industries, and it's unsustainable. It's widely recognized that the pace of growth is not sustainable. Yes, in the US it's 17% of gross domestic product, but in developed countries it's 10%. It's a lot of money. And it's not like everything's going well. The third leading cause of death in the US is estimated to be 250,000 people a year, 700 people a day, more than a jumbo jet crashing each day. There is no doubt, but the health care industry has been slow to respond to the fourth industrial revolution, but that's changing. That's changing through AI, through predictive analytics, through the use of enterprise architecture, through the use of medical devices, personal, as well as in the hospital. So what we have in the HERA is a framework to help cure what ELS Health Care. We've developed a holistic view, which I'm going to show you in two seconds or so. It's guided by the principle of better outcomes for patients, better outcomes as defined by patients. It's informed by evidence. It aligns business strategy and technology and operations. It's based on the key elements of the time-tested notion of plan, first you plan, then you build, then you run. Here's what it looks like. Oops, I went too far, perhaps. Let's see. No. So it's a cloverleaf. We call it a fidget spinner. There are 12 steps in this framework, and this is truly an overarching framework. Notice in the middle, it has the person or the family or people. It also is agile, and I'll explain that in a minute, even though it may look like it's waterfall because there's some kind of linearity going on here, but it's not waterfall. It's based on plan, build, run, as I said, where plan is all about management. Build is all about the architectural model, and run is about the operations of the program. When I say and we say that when the forum has developed this as an agile reference architecture, what we mean is that, obviously, if it's a new business, you might start in a waterfall fashion. You might talk about, OK, what's your vision? What's your strategy? And how do you run through this cycle? But if you have a business as most of the ones that we work for that are operating, you can start anywhere along those 12 steps and go anywhere else. I'll explain. So if we just look at the management model, the vision, that's where we start, right? It's quite straightforward. You can read it on the slide.  What strategies do you need? Taking into account the ecosystem, the regulatory environment, your competitors, and so forth, what are the capabilities that you need to develop? What is the portfolio that you need to develop to transform your company? Once you get into what is traditionally in the architectural framework, there's a lot of work to do. There's developing the business processes that are going to be managed and changed. There is the information model. The information model is critical, and that's where the FIM comes in. And that's where we marry the two. And there'll be a lot to say about that as I go through this. There are, there's the applications step and some of the most commonly used standards for health care are now based on APIs. There's the technology. And then in the run, in the operations model, there's four steps.  What are the next steps in HERA? And by the way, I should say, HERA has been, we've developed applications. We've used it to explain work done in the opioid crisis on prescription drug programs in hospital, in a hospital in Norway, in eclinical quality measures in the Medicaid program in the U.S. But we really want to focus now on making it executable. How are we going to do that? If you really think back just two hours ago, maybe to Mark Langhorst's presentation, 3.1 Archimate can help build out any of these steps, virtually any of these steps. And we are really looking forward to engaging members of the open group in helping to build down to that next level, Mark talked about. And I was impressed by this idea that if you have a framework at this level but you want to operate at this level, you've got to have some kind of tools that cover that gap. We're working actually tomorrow, we're talking to the Dutch quasi-government organization called Nictes, which has developed a hospital reference architecture in Archimate, not surprisingly, in Archimate. And we're talking about combining the two because FIM is broader. That's one way. Another is that we're expanding collaborations. Not only with the Netherlands, we were just talking to the World Economic Forum in The Hague where we were invited. Being considered as a secretariat for one of their projects on standardizing clinical informatics, we'll see where that goes. We're an agile organization. They're trying to get their stuff together and get people involved. Some of our Platinum members are much engaged in that project. They're focused on outcome measures, patient focused outcome measures. And then we want to test and demonstrate the FIM in a variety of situations. So let me transition now to talk about the information model. I could, I'll say just a word. I look back at the history of development of enterprise architecture, which has happened in my lifetime. Early paper by Evans and Hague that was published in Harvard Business Review. Really talking about information. IBM's initial, I think it's, I forget what it's called. I think I'm thinking PBS, but it's initial architectural framework, information focus. Zachman at the beginning, looking at information structure architecture only later in the late 90s calling it enterprise architecture. Togaf, a boundaryless information flow. So there is a pretty heavy focus on information and digitizing it. At this point, we're gonna watch a short video that we had help through the US government in developing that pretty much explains it. FIM, the Federated Health Information Model. Advancing healthcare interoperability by harmonizing standards. Thanks to rapid 21st century technology developments. Today, we use all kinds of digital products that transfer key information to help us do things we value like managing our finances, shopping online, finding a flight, looking a place to stay, reserving transit, keeping up with family and friends and last but not least, managing our health and healthcare. Unfortunately, transferring healthcare information among all of those who need it often feels like being stuck in a time warp. Consider for example, Mr. John Smith. John is a 70 year old retired veteran who lives on a modest pension with his wife, Mary. He suffers from multiple health problems. Heart disease, chronic low back pain, obesity, borderline diabetes and bouts of depression. When John begins to experience moderate chest pain, his internist refers him to a cardiologist. When John and Mary arrive at the office, they are given page after page of forms to fill out about John's health, insurance and basic demographics. They complete them while knowing the same information already exists in the EHR at his primary care physician's office. Imagine their frustration. Why couldn't this information be sent electronically to the new cardiologists? Of course, the answer is that most EHRs don't easily talk to one another. They don't interoperate. Everyone is handicapped by poor interoperability in healthcare. Most healthcare stakeholders experience information sharing challenges every day. For example, clinical staff know they don't always have the most up to date patient information. Yet they need to make decisions in real time. Not having information needed to provide high value care is frustrating and costly. Sometimes the source of frustration is too much information. Providers often have to scour through detailed clinical narratives, looking for key information to gain an accurate picture of their patient's healthcare needs. As a result, clinicians often lack confidence in the information they use to make vital decisions with their patients. We need better solutions to help information flow securely and timely so patients can receive the highest value healthcare possible. At the heart of this problem is lack of standards agreement. Consider a real life example of what can happen in the absence of agreed on standards. Our story goes back over 100 years ago to Baltimore, Maryland, the fifth largest US city at the time.  Naturally, neighboring firefighters responded.  However, their hoses did not fit the fire plugs in Baltimore. With no standard size for couplings, water could not be transported to the flames. Firefighters stood by helplessly as the fire burned out of control and much of central Baltimore burned down in what became the third largest fire disaster in American history. Unlike the Baltimore example, the primary barrier to gaining standards agreement in healthcare today is not physical or technical, rather it's economic and social. Alas, it's easier to create new standards than to build consensus on making existing standards work. Fortunately, compatibility among healthcare standards does not mean that everyone needs to use the same standard. As long as standards are mapped to a common logical information model, they can work together and information can flow. This is the purpose and promise of the Federated Health Information Model, which we call the FEM. The FEM is an expandable health information model and different standards can be mapped to it. By providing a common map for different standards, the FEM can harmonize standards developed by different organizations. The FEM provides a detailed map of healthcare information put into distinct groupings or domains. This map of health information and associated standards can be used to increase interoperability so health information is available when and where it is needed. The result is more efficient healthcare systems, better care and improved patient outcomes, and much less frustration for providers and for patients and caregivers like John and Mary Smith. Okay, so if the FEM is so great, why did the government give it away? Which they sort of did. After 10 years of funding, $5 million over 200,000 person hours. First, there was an extraordinary lack of understanding. I mean, really, while the Klinger-Cohen Act, which was designed, which was intended to bring federal agencies together in their data models and their ability to exchange information is responsible for the creation of the FEM and the 10 years of work that was done on it in the US federal government. The fact is that no offense, enterprise architects do enterprise architecture very well, but they don't do marketing. And marketers don't do enterprise architecture very well. So nobody knew much about it. Also, you've got all that UML and it scares some people and I'll get into that in a minute. So it was a little hard to understand. Also, there was no basic sort of... So it was on the web, unlike us, we now have the FEM on the web and we can track who uses it. We have a daily tracker, we can do analysis. Federal government didn't do that. For all we know, Epic, Cerner, McKesson, Athena Health, all borrowed this open source to put into their own proprietary information models. We don't really know. There were adoption questions naturally. They didn't know how many folks had adopted it. Also something happened about a year ago. The VA and the DOD, which were two of the major sponsors of the FEM. In fact, the FEM came from the Veterans Health Information Model. Those two organizations let approximately $10 billion of contract money to Cerner to develop an electronic health information model that could allow veterans and people in active military service to be able to get their data shared among their providers and about 70% of veterans receive care outside of the veteran administration in the private sector which use all kinds of different electronic health records. There was a bit of ideology in the current administration. Let it hit the private sector and see how it can compete there. And then there is this, and Clay Christensen's terms, hugely disruptive technology called FIRE, Fast Health Interoperability Resources which has grown up over a 10-year-plus period. And this is a very complicated story, how it got there. But HL7 International is the largest health care standards body.  What you have on that top line is you've now got clinicians doing smart on FIRE. You've got employer organizations doing Argonaut on FIRE. You've got buyers, whether it's public or private insurance companies participating in DaVinci. You've got Epic and the other nine top 10 EHRs who have to some extent incorporated FIRE into their business model. In the middle you've got government there. In the US, in Netherlands and other places, there are regulations that specify standards that shall be used. The US is pretty light on this, but whenever a government organization says do this, the market moves because they like, the market likes that kind of certainty. So FIRE has really taken hold. How many of you have an iPhone and see that app with the heart? Press on that. You'll see that you can download your medical record from your provider. And if you look at the small writing, you'll see that they use the FIRE API to transfer that information. Google, Amazon Web Services, and Microsoft are all jumping on board and you can see that there is international presence in using the FIRE as well. So what we knew we had to operate in this environment where the FIRE had just taken off. It may be on the top of the Gartner hype cycle, it may be part way up, the Gartner hype cycle and the trough of disillusionment and then the even trajectory after that may not even apply, don't know. But what we did with support from ONC is we put together a group of experts, architects, master architects who wrote the FIM, including physician, informaticists and various architects as well as federal people in the federal government. And we asked them, what do you think is potentially the greatest value of the FIM? And this is what we learned. First, we learned some things about FIRE. We learned that FIRE is immensely popular because it's easy to use. It's based on an API. Somehow in healthcare, again, late to the game of the fourth industrial revolution. But the idea that you could use APIs to transfer things quickly and easily only was adopted in healthcare quite recently. But here's the problem. FIRE enables a relatively easy agreement of exchange of information between two entities, but it does not ensure that that methodology will allow two other agencies to exchange information. So as a result, the adoption of FIRE while it's fantastic is resulting in over 10,000 profiles that are kept in the repository. What's it gonna be in five years or a year? It's almost like a whole new interoperability problem on a meta level. These aren't really standards. They're working on it, but we wanted to know how can FIM address this issue. What we knew is that meeting the need of having a common health information model, common logical information model, some people call it, is really necessary. It helps solve the N squared problem if you're, I'm sure you're familiar with that, where if everybody has to develop unique means of interoperability, then N squared, if you have seven entities that wanna exchange data, you got 49 interoperability instances. If you map to a common logical information model as the video showed, even though you don't have to use the same standards, they can be translated and it becomes N and far more manageable. So, we knew that the complexity of FIRE was preventing its uptake, FIM was preventing its uptake, so that what we were told is that making FIM accessible, easy to use, making it easy to do the right thing was our goal. So how did we do that? We created something called the FIM Profile Builder, FPB, and we're trademarking it and we're hosting it on our website. We're in the process of doing it, but we demonstrated that it works. And what does it do? It takes the front end part of the FIM, where you have, by the way, it's not just an information model, it's an information and terminology model. So, you saw the UML model, there's actually over 42 domains, covers about 90% of the healthcare that's typically exchanged. Each of those, well, each of those domains has classes, there's over 1,000 classes and there's 6,000 elements under each of those. And each, if you go onto our website, which I'm gonna quickly show you at the end of the talk, you can see the model, you can explore it, you can see the terminology bindings to it. That's its strength. What we were able to do in the demonstration period when we were transferring the FIM to the open group was build something called a FIM Profile Builder. We were able to build a user interface that uses the FIM so that instead of looking at all that UML, you can type in what it is that you're interested in and all of the elements in the FIM that are relevant to immunization reports, for example, pop up, and then you can constrain them as resources, which is what is done in FIRE. You constrain them, you say whether they're mandatory or whether they're used but not standard or whether you don't even have them or need them or want them and then that template gets saved, so it's reusable. The template then goes through this thing called the FIM Profile Builder Generator, which is based on something called MDMI, model-driven, model-driven something or the other, sorry. Model-driven health tools, MDHT, and something called MDMI, and it generates FIRE profiles and implementation guides. And what we did is we tested the automated generated FIM FIRE profile with the one that the Argonaut Group, which the government is looking at and which is being used all over the world, that's how it's done. It's done manually. These profiles are created manually for interoperability. We were able to generate exactly the same profile automatically. We're talking to our colleagues in the Netherlands tomorrow and did last week in the Hague with the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Sport about how the FIM could help what's likely to be mandated use of certain kinds of standards called ZIBs or detailed clinical models. So let me very quickly to finish out, show you, are we showing it here? Yes, this is our new website and I encourage you to visit it, www.fim.org. It's full of interesting things, naturally I think so. It has the animation. It has the model. It has the FIM profile builder. Not quite hosted yet, but you can download the software so we're getting there, we'll be there soon. And then it talks about who the FIM is for. So it starts with managers. And for managers, it addresses the value propositions of the FIM and the FIM profile builder. And it shows the FIM animation, because as you saw, the FIM animation is at a level where basically your grandmother can understand it. And then it has a video, one of three, on the FIM profile builder. It also then talks to modelers who are going to be interested in the FIM model, which you can access there. And as it says, the FIM model is based on hundreds of use cases coming out of not just the federal government but based on the standards, the international standards like SNOMED CT where there's, I don't know, 300,000 standards, I think. It addresses the informaticists who are doing the terminology bindings to the information model. And then the developers who are really, that's where the action is. Those are the people who are out there using the FIRE. Our hope is we'll use the FIM and make these profiles assist in a significant way in achieving interoperability so that your health data is available to you and those who provide your care when you need it, where you need it so they can use information and clinical decision support to give you the best care possible and to avoid those medical errors, which is just part of the issue. That's not even, medical errors doesn't even get into the whole quality side of things. So that's really, I don't know where we are on time, but that's all I have to say. Please have a seat, Jason. We've got a few questions. Thank you for that. And again, thank you for standing in for Oliver. Absolutely.  Yes, yes, thank you. So tomorrow from when we start 8.30, I think, actually, through to 12.30, we will be having a workshop. And Oliver will be talking about smart hospitals in India. And unfortunately, he had a colleague from DXC who could not make it due to visa, but I want to give a shout out to DXC and Phillips and IBM as really major workers in the forum. Tomorrow, we're also going to have people from the Dutch government who are, and this organization called Nictus, who are going to come talk to us about their hospital reference architecture, which they built out in Archimage. So we're looking forward to that. And we would really like to encourage, I would like to encourage, as many people who know and use Archimate to come join us. I used to think, Steve, as you know, that you had to know healthcare to use Archimate in O'Hara. I don't believe that anymore. So I would encourage you to come. Good. Well, on that line of hearing getting people from the Dutch government, and you said you were in the haig last week. First question came in, how are and how does O'Hara and the FIM benefit people outside the US? Oh, cool. So yes, you're right. That was a US-centric talk with some deviations, but so if it benefits people outside the US in exactly the same way that it does benefit people in the US and in some cases, easier. So if you're in a country, let's take the Netherlands since we're sitting in the Netherlands right now, there's universal care. Whether it's a developed country or a developing country, there are governments that take healthcare. I'm not gonna say more seriously. They take a more active, that's all right. They take a more active role in setting standards and requiring coverage and access. Fire is being used all over the world. There are dev days, HL7 dev days in many, many countries. It's HL7 is an international group. So exactly in the same way that it helps folks in the US, the three main standards that are binded to the FIM SNOMED CT, LOINC and RXNORM are used in virtually all European countries, not every one. There's also the opportunity if you're in a country where you use other standards to bind those standards to the FIM and it will work the same to me, mathematical magic that the common logical information model does for interoperability. Okay, okay. How does the FIM handle extensions? Well it's an extensible model and so you simply add on to it. In the sense of fire, you add more resources. So it's an information model, it shows relationships. You can look at it, if you have an allergy condition, who you see and what the nature of the allergy is, is it a food intolerance or not. It's extensible. DeVida, some of you may have heard of, it's the big dialysis company but it's also an insurer built a renal domain. So all you need is people who have an interest and you just add on to the FIM. Want to extend it, right. For the thousands of fire profiles already out there, do you plan to set up a process to extract the templates out of them? Never thought of it. No, but talk to me afterwards and tell me why it's a good idea. I mean, we're talking to HL7 and we're figuring out, this is fairly new, right? We just became stewards of the FIM in September. Right, yeah, very new. This has happened over a year period. So in healthcare, collaboration is so key. The use of other standards. You saw those puzzles with all those different puzzle pieces, all those different standards organizations. So that may be a good idea. I don't know. Okay, last question, Jason. Why would an organization need the FIM if they already have the mature fire available to use? Well, fire is not mature. Fire is not actually even a standard yet at HL7, but like I'm told by them and others, that really good standards get used before they become formal, before they become normalized is what HL7's balloting process, how it works. So first of all, it's not a mature standard. It requires manually building these profiles for information exchange, but if you're a hospital or you're an insurance company or you're a large physician collaboration and you wanna exchange data, not just with one other hospital in your network, but with physical therapy, labs, the number of exchange instances is huge. You don't wanna keep building these things over and over and over again. So really, the argument for automating the building of fire profiles is our low-hanging fruit, and that's what we're going after. Great, Jason, thank you very much. We'll leave it there. Thank you.


In today's class, we will discuss about hydraulic flood routing. In earlier classes, you have already been told about the flood routing by way of hydrologic methods, but in today's class, we will discuss about the hydraulic way of flood routing. So let us say this is a channel, the flood wave is moving in this direction and here I know what is the hydrograph. You all know what is a hydrograph, right? This is T, this is the discharge. So the time history of the discharge will be called the hydrograph. So in this channel system, I know the inflow hydrograph and here I know the rating curve. Let us say this is the downstream end of the channel. So here I know the rating curve, the stage discharge relationship. Given these conditions, I want to know the flow depth and the velocity or discharge at any other location. For example, here I want to know for a given time what is the discharge or flow velocity and what is the flow depth. So how we will go about this? When you say hydraulic routing, it can be done in many ways. So to start with, let us begin with dynamic routing. In dynamic flood routing, we use the governing equations as continuity equation for water flow and then momentum equation for water flow. If I consider the flow to be one dimensional, then what should I do? I should use these equations. The continuity equation will be partial h over partial t plus partial u h over partial x is equal to 0. Please remember that we have assumed here the flow to be one dimensional. That means suppose this is the cross section of a river. At any point, this will have three different components. The flow will be in three different directions. Let us say this is along the flow, this is along the width and this is along the depth. So when I say the flow is one dimensional, that means flow along the main direction or the longitudinal direction is prominent. Other two directions are not so significant. So I consider that the effect of these two components of the flow velocity are minimal. So I consider this direction only. So when I say this is one dimensional flow, this h is basically the flow depth and u is the flow velocity. Do not forget that we have also assumed that the bed is rigid. You know that all natural flow channels are with sediment flow but here for the sake of simplicity, we have assumed that the bed is rigid. That means no sediment flow. So this is the continuity equation for water flow and the momentum equation for water flow will be partial u h over partial t plus partial over partial x u square h g h square by 2 is equal to g h s o s f. Coming to different terms in these equations, as we said earlier u and h are respectively the flow velocity and flow depth. Here g is the acceleration due to gravity, s naught is the bed slope and as we are assuming one dimensional flow, s naught or the bed slope will be the slope along the flow. That means if this is the channel, this slope or in other words if I consider this to be x, this to be z, slope will be minus del z del x. So this is the slope or the bed slope. S f is the friction slope. What is friction slope? Suppose this is the water surface. So we consider three different types of slopes. One is the bed slope, which is the slope of this. One is the water surface slope. The slope of this line. Another is the friction slope or the slope of the energy line. I can draw the energy line here like this. So slope of the energy line is called the S f. If you consider the equations mathematically, these equations are hyperbolic partial differential equations. These are non-linear by nature. So a closed form analytical solution is very difficult. We can find closed form analytical solutions only for idealized cases. Therefore, one should go for the numerical solution. So we will study here the numerical solution to these equations, but before that let me explain you this S f. How one will estimate the S f? S f is the friction slope and it should be estimated by some resistance relationship. For example, Manning's equation. So one can use Stege's equation or Manning's equation, some sort of resistance relationship and you must know that these resistance relationships are valid for uniform flow. For example, Manning's equation is valid for uniform flow. That means we assume in our analysis that for unsteady flow, even the uniform flow resistance relationship is valid. This is an assumption. Strictly speaking, this will not be the case. In unsteady flow, the resistance relationship will be different. However, we assume that Manning's equation is equally valid in case of unsteady flow also. So coming back to the numerical solution, if I have to write some of the names here, then one will be method of characteristics. Then there is finite difference method. Then we have finite element method, also spectral methods. There are so many variations of these methods also. However, our discussion is limited to this finite difference method. You know this method of characteristics. This is generally used in pipe flows, but in channel flows, we generally use finite difference method. So let us consider about finite difference method. I will explain here one explicit method and if time permits, one implicit method. What is the difference between explicit and implicit method? In explicit method, suppose this is a partial derivative term.  Now, I have set of algebraic equations and unknowns. I try to solve the unknowns. Suppose I have a partial derivative term like this. So the spatial derivative will be expressed in terms of unknown time level values. For example, suppose I use a forward finite difference. So this is the forward finite difference, but look at the time levels. The time levels here are for unknown time level. This is called implicit and in explicit, we use by using same forward finite difference, but the time level will be for known time level. Here, these symbols k and k plus 1, they represent the known time level and the unknown time level. It will be more clear when we draw the grid. So let us say this is the finite difference grid. This is the distance and this is the time. To represent distance, I use the nodes as i's. So these are different nodes. That means different i values. They represent the distances and these are different time levels. Let us say I represent them through k. So this grid indicates the spatial variation and the temporal variation of our problem document. This is the spatial direction. This is the temporal direction. So this x means, let us say this is 0 kilometer. This might be 2 kilometers. This might be 4 kilometers like this, but when I say i, this designation i means some number. For example, this might be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Some nodes, I designate these nodes through these i values. Similarly, the time nodes are designated by k values. For example, k is 1 here, 2 here, 3 here, 4 here. In absolute sense, this k is equal to 1 may represent, let us say time is equal to 2 hours. So if I am interested to know the variables throughout the channel, do not forget this. This is the channel. These are the different nodes which I represent in this grid as i's and these nodes on these nodes both h and u. If you remember the governing equations as we wrote for the continuity equation and the momentum equation, the independent variables are x and t, the space and the time nodes. But the dependent variables, the unknowns are the flow variables u and h, the velocity and the flow depth. So here, at all the nodes, I need to find out what is h and what is u. On all the nodes, here I need to know what is h and what is u, what is h and what is u, what is h and what is u like this. So for all the nodes and also at all the time levels, I need to know how h and u vary. So h is a function of x and t, h varies with distance as well as with time, u also varies with distance and time. So how do I define the problem? So this flood routing problem I will define by this. Suppose this is the channel, I know at a given time the flow depth and the velocities at all the nodes. So this is called the initial condition. At t is equal to 0 for all x, I know u for all x is known and h for all x is known. So initial condition says at time t is equal to 0, I know the variables values at all the nodes. What is boundary condition? Boundary condition is at unknown time levels, it is greater than 0. I know the values at the boundaries or at the end nodes. As you know, the channel is divided into number of nodes. So this first node and the last node, the inflow section and the outflow section on these nodes, I should know the variables values. So this is one section, this is another section, this is called the inflow or you can say the starting point of my problem domain, this is the outflow section. So I know some condition here, I know some other condition here. From these given conditions called the boundary conditions, my results should be affected by these conditions. So let us once again formulate the problem and we are discussing one numerical method which is explicit and the name of the method is Lax Diffusive Scheme. So we are discussing about Lax Diffusive Scheme. I am not repeating the governing equations. You are supposed to know these governing equations. Few minutes back we discussed that. So here the main philosophy is to write the time derivative. Let us say this is a general type of time derivative. It should be represented through, I will come to this star business this. Look at this expression very carefully. This partial derivative term is made equivalent to this algebraic term and this is for node i. That means if you remember my finite difference grid, let us say this is a particular i and I am trying to evaluate the time derivative term at this node. For this particular node, I can write these equivalent algebraic terms and this f is the functional value. If this is h, this will be h. If this is velocity, this will be velocity at i at an unknown time level. That means if this is let us say this is k, this is k plus 1. If this is i, so this is unknown and this is known. Everything here is known. At this level I do not know anything. So my objective is to find out u and h values at these nodes. So at node i del f over del t is made equivalent like this. What is f star? This is the average of the neighborhood values. Mathematically it can be proved that if I use the value f i k here, the scheme will be unstable. What is an unstable scheme? An unstable scheme is when the numerical errors, total numerical errors, they grow with time stepping. As time increases, the total numerical error, they increase. So we do not want that. Our scheme should be stable. That means the error should be within some limits. To fulfill that condition, we use here a averaging parameter which is because ours is a case of one dimensional problem.  And do not forget this is for the known time level. That means f i star here will be average of these two values. This is i minus 1, this is i plus 1. In case of a two dimensional problem, this should be made average of all the four neighborhoods. However, this is a one dimensional problem and we are writing this star parameter with two neighborhood parameters. Now this is the substitution for the time derivative. What about the space derivative? If this is a general statement for a space derivative, then I can write the equivalent algebraic expressions. This will be f i plus 1, f i minus 1 divided by 2 delta x. We use a central finite difference in case of spatial derivative. Do not forget to use the known time level values here. This is for node i. Once again I repeat, when we look the governing equations, we see that in the governing equations, there are spatial derivatives and there are time derivatives. The time derivative terms are made equivalent to algebraic expressions by way of time stepping in which we use the averaging of the parameters between the neighborhood values. However, in case of spatial derivative, we use central finite difference and because lax diffusive scheme is an explicit scheme, so spatial derivative will be expressed in terms of known time level values. That means, here we use known time level values. So, I will just give an example how to discretize, how to use these principles in the governing equations. If I rewrite my governing equation, let us say continuity equation. This is the continuity equation.  This should be at known time levels divided by 2 delta x. I substitute the spatial derivative here and as we discussed for the time derivative here, we will be equal to 0. So, if I look at this discretized equation, this is called the discretized equation. This is the partial differential equation. This is the equivalent algebraic equation which is made, which is in the discretized form. This is called discretization. So, here again h i star, if I replace h i star as we discussed, it will be average of the neighborhood values. So, it will be half of h i minus 1 k and h i plus 1 k. So, if you look at this equation, everywhere whenever there is the superscript k, I know the values because in the numerical grid, k indicates known time level and k plus 1 is the unknown time level. That means, if I look very carefully this expression, I have only one unknown time level expression. So, I can write h i k plus 1 equal to minus here half.  This is with k. This is with k divided by 2 delta x. Then delta t will come here multiplied by delta t and this will be plus half plus h i minus 1 h i plus 1. This is k. This is 2. So, on the right hand side, we have all the values with superscript k. That means, I know these values. So, the beauty of this explicit scheme is that we can know the unknown time levels value with the known time level values and I do not have to solve any matrix or any difficult thing. Explicitly, I can have the terms for each node. I can write this term for all the i values, but just hold on. When I say all the i values, if I draw the grid, this is i and this is k and if you relook the expression we wrote there, it is involving i plus 1 and i minus 1. That means, if this is my i, let us say this is i, it will involve evaluation of h here will involve this and this. So, here we have a problem and what is the problem? The problem is these two values will not exist for the end nodes. For example, if I am here, I can have this, but there is no node here. Similarly, for the downstream end, I do not have the node here. So, what we do is this lag scheme can be used. Just remember, lag scheme can be used for the interior nodes and for the end nodes or the boundary nodes, we use the boundary condition. What will be the boundary condition? The boundary conditions will depend on the problem statement. When we say problem statement, in some cases it will be the inflow hydrograph for the inflow section. So, you remember these statements, let us say inflow. At inflow section, I must use, of course we have not discussed the method of characteristics, but for the time being, just take it for granted that there is something called method of characteristics and in method of characteristics, we get one negative characteristic equation. So, for inflow section, one should use the negative characteristic equation and the condition from the problem statement. So, when we say from the problem statement, for example, if this is the channel and you have been provided with the inflow hydrograph, then this is your problem statement. So, one equation is this, the other equation is this. We have two equations and two unknowns in H and U. So, one should be able to find out both uniquely for the inflow section. One simplified method one can use in place of this characteristic equation is, you use one equation from this and you use. So, I am writing here 1 a in place of this negative characteristic equation. Suppose you do not know what is negative characteristic equation, you can go for this method. This method says use the extrapolation. What is extrapolation? Extrapolation is suppose these are the nodes. I know the values, let us say H, I know the H value here, I know the H value here. So, you extend this line to find out H value here. That means H, let us say this is 1, this is 2, this is 3. H 2 k plus 1 is known. How it will be known? This will be known by the Lax Diffusive Scheme. When we use the Lax Diffusive Scheme for the interior nodes, I can find out H and U for these nodes. So, this is known. Similarly, H 3 at unknown time level is known and what about H 1 k plus 1? As we said, we cannot use the Lax Scheme for this. So, we will use the boundary condition. So, this will be expressed in terms of these two. So, if I use a linear curve, that means I assume that the relationship between these three is a straight line. I can fit a straight line between the H values at these three nodes. So, it will become this plus this divided by 2 will become this or 2 times H 2 minus H 3 k plus 1. This is called the method of extrapolation. So, you use extrapolation method in place of method of characteristics and do not forget the condition from the problem statement. For example, if you have been provided with the inflow hydrograph, then use that condition and also this condition. These two will be sufficient to find out what is the H and what is U at node number 1. Similarly, for the end node or we can say the downstream end. Generally, we have the rating curve and we have the either extrapolation or positive characteristic equation. Now, we will discuss the flow chart of the Lax diffusive scheme so that the sequences, the sequential steps to be used in Lax scheme will be clear. So, we start the program here, then all the inflow values sorry input values. When I say input, what are the different input values? It will be different channel parameters such as slope length, its cross section at different places and then we have the numerical parameters then you may have the flow parameters and you may have the constants. For example, we have G in our expression. So, acceleration due to gravity G is equal to 9.81 that information you should put as input. Then you set the initial condition that means at t is equal to 0, you set U for all i's and H for all i's. Then from this now you have to find out what is your delta t. I will write your stability. I have not explained what is stability criteria. I will explain after this because this will be a breakage in the continuity. So, first let us complete this flow chart and then we will discuss about what is stability. For the time being just know that stability means we find out what is delta t. Unlike in case of implicit schemes, we have to follow certain conditions for delta t. In explicit schemes, although it looks very simple, we are paying the price here. For example, we have to follow the current condition to find out what is the delta t value. We cannot use delta t values at our own sweet will. So, after stability, one should go for the unsteady flow condition and here you can solve the H equation or the continuity equation. Solve continuity equation and solve momentum equation. When you solve continuity equation, you will find H k plus 1 for all i's except 1 and the last node. Similarly, here you will find u for all i values, but you cannot get these values for node number or i number 1 and i number last. So, what we do is we use here the boundary condition. Please remember that these two lines are from the lack scheme. The last line the boundary condition is not solved by lack scheme. You have to use the problem statement and common sense and general rules of the numerical method to find out what is the boundary condition. Then we should go for the next time step, but before that I should verify this diamond shape indicates a logical statement. So, I should verify whether I have reached the required time level or not. So, t here is verified. If I have already reached the required time level, then I should stop. If I have not reached the required time level, I should repeat, but before repeating I should swap the I should exchange because if this is the grid, let us say this is my k, this is my k plus 1. That means this is the known time level, this is the unknown time level. So, using these values, I calculate these values. So, here at the end of this, I am here. Now all the values are known. So, I should treat this as k. That means now this becomes k and this becomes k plus 1. So, I should swap the variables.  Then, once again it becomes the same thing. That means now I am at time level k, which is known for example here and I move forward, but before going there I should know what is stability, what is delta t. Then I solve the lax diffusive scheme, put the boundary conditions and get the answers. So, I time step this. That means I go to one time level, another time level, another time level like this and I will stop when I reach the required time level. For example, suppose there is a flood in a river and I know that the flood takes, let us say 4 hours to reach the downstream end. Then probably I should do the flood routing for 4 hours or maybe 10 hours, something like that. So, the user, the programmer has to give the time of computation. That means at which time level I want to stop my program. So, that has to be given. That will be given in this numerical parameters in the input file. So, you use the time of computation here and as soon as the program reaches the time of computation, it will stop. If I want to write the results, then where should I write, I should use, it depends. For example, let us say this is the channel. One sort of output will be, suppose I am at a place for a given x, I want the time variation of the hydrograph. Let us say, suppose this is h, this is t. Let us say this is the flow depth, this is time and this is like this. To get the result like this, what should I do? Where should I write the output? I should write the output here. Before I move here, this should be my output. So, here I should write t and also h k for i. This i is fixed. This is for a particular given. This is for some value, let us say 50. For a given distance, I have to know for each time level, what will be the variation of depth. If my objective is that for the whole domain, I should know how the surface look like. For example, suppose this is the water surface, this is the bed. So, here the objective is different. This is x, this is h. You compare this and this. Here the objective is different, here the objective is different. So, for this, what I need to do? After the end of all the computations, before stopping, I should write the output here. So, depending on the objective of the user, depending on the objective of the user, one should use the output statement. Now, let us go to the stability, because we have not discussed the stability. So, we will discuss the stability here or in other words, if we are using an explicit scheme, then we have to use a limited value of delta t. We cannot use any value of delta t. So, how to decide that? This is called Courant-Frederick-Lewis condition, C-F-L condition. This condition says delta t should be less than equal to delta x divided by u i plus minus square root g h i. So, we multiply here. How the computer will know that this is less than this? Delta t is less than this. So, to ensure that, we use a factor which is less than 1. So, we call that as the Courant number. We use a Courant number. That means delta t is equal to Courant number times delta x divided by u i plus. Let us use plus, because this will give you a stringent value square root g h i. Let me explain this. This Courant number C n is a factor which is less than 1 and this delta x will be given by the user. u i and h i are known. g is acceleration due to gravity. Based on this, delta t will be calculated. A typical value of Courant number for lag scheme is in the range of 0.6 to 0.8. Even higher values, one can numerically experiment what is the value of Courant number and accordingly, you can decide what value of Courant number is appropriate for the given problem. Once you find out delta t, please check that this is dependent on i. That means, if this is the numerical grid for each time level, let us say this is the time level k plus 1. So, to determine what will be this value of delta t, I need to find out delta t for each i and I should select the minimum of all the delta t's. So, you find out minimum of delta t i. Let us say this is i. So, for each i, I will find one delta t value and based on the minimum criteria, I will choose the minimum value of all the delta t's. So, I go for the minimum of the delta t to select what will be my next time level. So, once delta t is calculated, then we can follow this flow chart to find out this is the stability step. So, we can move further. Please remember that this is not uniform. That means, this delta t and this delta t, this delta t, these might be different. Delta t may not be equal for all the time steps. Now, when you do the lag scheme, what is expected? Sometimes, we find in flood routing some discontinuities like let us say something like this. Let us say this is x, this is h. In flood routing in hydraulics, this is called a bore. Mathematically, you can say that this is a discontinuity. So, lag scheme is not very good to capture the discontinuity like this. That means, strictly speaking, the numerical scheme should produce these as the result, but lag scheme will give what? It will give you something like this. It will give you some sort of the nature. It will indicate you the nature, but step like things will come. So, when we get step like things, we know that this is not a very good thing. So, what we do? We do something called the, this is called a numerical error. So, because lag scheme is only second order accurate in space and first order accurate in time, we find these type of errors. So, there is another scheme which is called MacCormack scheme. This, if we use this scheme, then the step like things will not come and it can capture the bore very correctly. So, as I mentioned in the MacCormack scheme, the philosophy will be slightly different, but it is similar to lag scheme. So, this is a two-step scheme. One is the predictor scheme. The other is the corrector step. In the predictor step, this is calculated by f, let us say P fk i divided by delta T and we also have the spatial derivative terms, which will be in terms of known time level divided by delta x. This is backward finite difference and this is time stepping. This is the predictor step and in the corrector step, we will have, let us say c is for corrector step. Now, this is known the predictor step. So, this is used and for the spatial derivative, we will use the predicted values, but here we have used the backward finite difference scheme. So, here in the corrector step, we will use the forward finite scheme. This is in terms of predicted values and the thing is not over here. There will be a final step, which will say what is k plus 1. That means, is half of f. Remember this very carefully. This is corrector step. This is not predictor. This is at time level k. So, in the scheme of the parameters, the variables are defined in terms of, let us say h and u at time level. I have h k and u k. These two are known. First, I will find out what is predicted value of h. Similarly, what is predicted values, value of u. From this, I will find what is corrector value of h and then, I will find what is this. This is the sequence. So, in McCormack scheme also, it is not free from numerical error. Any numerical scheme you use, it will be with some error. So, here we find oscillation. For example, if this is the shock, we will find some oscillations here. So, this is also not very good. So, what is done is there is something called artificial viscosity. This is used to kill the numerical oscillations. So, by using artificial viscosity and McCormack scheme, one can capture the shocks very well. So, to conclude today's lecture, I will say that this hydraulic way of doing the flood routine is very good. In this, we use the continuity equation and the momentum equation, which are also called the Saint-Venant equations. We solve these equations by some numerical method. We have discussed two explicit methods. One is the Lax diffusive scheme. The other is the McCormack scheme. As I told, McCormack scheme is better because it is fourth order accurate and this scheme captures the shock very well. So, we will stop here.


Good morning. Today, we depart Washington and route to the Far East, and I'm sure you know it's a journey we're very excited about. We've looked forward to this trip for a long time. We'll travel first to Indonesia for talks with President Suwarto and also meet with the foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. From Indonesia, we'll leave for Tokyo, and the 12th Annual Economic Summit of the Free Industrialized Nations of Asia, Europe, and North America. America's partnership with the nations of Asia grows stronger every year. In the days ahead, we will once again work together to reaffirm and renew our economic, strategic, and political ties. It'll also be good to reaffirm and renew our personal ties. As for the Tokyo Summit, our agenda is full. There'll be long and rather detailed economic meetings, and we'll also discuss other areas of political and strategic concern. It'll be good to see the summit members and to renew our friendship. This summit comes at an interesting time. There's no denying that the winds of freedom are blowing east and west. There are brisk and bracing winds sweeping out the old and, I believe, ushering in a new era of freedom. An era in which democracy is once again recognized as the new idea. So this is an exciting time, and I expect the Tokyo Summit to reflect the dynamism of the day. Nancy, who I'll be joining in Los Angeles later today, is going into a very heavy schedule on this trip. In Thailand and Malaysia, she'll be working very hard on events and issues that are related to her work against drug abuse. So it looks like we'll both have a lot to report when we return. And for now, sayonara. You see, I've been practicing. Thank you. God bless you all. All right. Do you have any concerns about possible terrorist activities against either you or Mrs. Reagan? I'm superstitious. I just won't even mention this.


Hi, this is Pastor David Rosales of Calvary Chapel of the Chino Valley, California. Recently, I posted what I considered a simple comment and encouragement to people to do their best to attend their home church services. It was not an encouragement for them to come to our church, though I have no policy of rejecting visitors to church, but rather a general encouragement to believers to be plugged in to their home churches. In the post, I wrote, in our day, people stay home and watch services online, often because they do not want to attend live services. By choice, they don't serve, support, fellowship, or know anyone. Is this good? Tomorrow morning, we will look at 1 Thessalonians 5, 12-14, what is a church for the answer? To be honest, I never thought I would have to address such a thing as this. Now, I almost never received more than a handful of responses to such posts, mainly because they are simple announcements and are not intended to stir any responses. But this time, there was a flurry of responses to my encouragement to be part of a home church with more than one person insisting that I was simply a megachurch pastor trying to profit off of people and was being motivated by my ego and greed. So this is the state of the church. Anger, when a brother says that fellowship and service is important for the Christian if that person truly wants to grow in the Lord. When I was saved, one of the first things I was told to do was to find a home church and to be planted in it. I was told that I needed to read God's Word, to pray, to find a good home church for fellowship and service, and to share my faith. This is Bible 101, the basics of Christianity. But perhaps in today's me first climate, the thought of actually caring about the needs of others and the value of actual relationships have been clouded by the instantaneous connections that we have through our iPhones and our iPads. Many have come under the mistaken belief that watching a church service on the screen is the same as being in the actual service and it is contributing to the depersonalization of a very personal message, the gospel, that informs us that God is actually with us. It's important to remember that the church is a community of believers, not simply a location or a building. As I survey the church, I see that many Christians are not settled into a home. Some refer to multiple places as their home for certain days or nights of the week. There seems to be a restlessness, a constant search for something new. This kind of mindset reminds me of the Athenian philosopher spoken of in Acts chapter 17, verse 21, where Luke told us that they spent their time in nothing else but either to tell or to hear some new thing. Some question if it is necessary or even possible to have a home church. Others wonder if it's even necessary to go to church services at all. And this is not only unbiblical, it's terribly unhealthy because a church is specifically created for us to fellowship with God and with his children. And we've been told that the one who loves God must love his brother also. Immediately someone asks, are you saying that we have to go to church in order to be saved? And no, I'm not saying that at all because being a church member is not the same as being a Christian. Attending church services do not make you into a Christian. But still the fact is if you are saved, then of course you'll desire to be in fellowship with other believers. There are many believers who desire to be in a church service but cannot. There are those who are in isolated locations and unable to attend. They may be in a remote location on a military mission or even incarcerated. There are others who are battling conditions that make it very difficult for them to attend. For them, at this time, it's difficult to be around people. So they watch services online. There are those who are physically ill and unable to attend. But they would if they could. Cancer patients, those with physical illnesses, watch us online. My mom broke her back and was bedridden for the last year of her life. But she watched services online until she went to be with Jesus. All of this is understandable. And we do what we can to accommodate them in their need. The key is, if they had their way, they would be in their home church going to services. When it's possible to be part of a local group of believers, it's something that should be done. It's where it's made possible to use your gifts to pray, to serve, to have fellowship, be accountable, receive communion, be baptized. It's a community of believers. It's your church family. In the New Testament, the word church never speaks of a building or of a special place that people meet. The word church, Ecclesia, is used around 49 times in the New Testament. It means the called out ones normally speaks of an assembly or a congregation. The Apostle Peter told the church in 1 Peter chapter 2, verse 9, you are a chosen generation, a royal priesthood, a holy nation, his own special people, that you may proclaim the praises of him who called you out of darkness into his marvelous light. We are the called out ones. We meet together with other called out ones. We are the church. Theologians have given us aspects of the church that are revealed in Scripture and have spoken of the church as the church triumphant, the church universal. They speak of the church militant, the church visible, the church invisible, and the church local. Each designation gives us different insight into what we generally call the church. So as we put together the various descriptions of the church, we can answer the question, what is the church?  The church is a community that proclaims Jesus as Lord and Savior. The church worships Jesus, sings praise to him, gives thanks to him. The church is organized under the leadership of pastor teachers and the church is taught God's word. The church is made up of a priesthood of believers and individually receives instructions from God's word as each reads the Scriptures, but also is taught in formal studies and services. The church celebrates baptism, participates in the ordinance of communion together. The church recognizes the need of spiritual leadership and respects the role of spiritual leaders in the fellowship. Finally, the church loves one another, serves one another, financially supports the work that is performed for the Lord in their local congregation. And this is where there's a confusion and a growing weakness with the body of Christ. Christianity has become fragmented, individualized and depersonalized. People speak of their personal relationship with Jesus and this is true. Yet they also need to remember that their faith is lived out in a community of like-minded believers. The church is a gathering of like-minded believers who love Jesus and love one another. This makes the church different than baseball teams for eternal organizations and the like. It is a community of believers that are a family in the Lord Jesus Christ. The church is not an event. It's a family that gets to know one another. When Paul closed the book of Romans, he mentioned around 36 people by name. This helps us to understand that there's an importance of being part of a church fellowship. There's a relationship with one another and together the church loves Jesus and the church loves one another. Now as is true in every family, there are family members that can be difficult to get along with. Though they may be difficult in the end, they're still family and the best thing we can do is to make sure that we remain in love with our family and to live in peace with them to the best of our abilities. Instead of running away from the family, it's always best to attempt to live in peace with them when it is at all possible. We work things out because we need each other. In the end, a person might be able to travel faster when he's alone but he always accomplishes more when he travels with others. In this journey of faith, we need to travel together to remember that the 120 were gathered in the upper room united in one accord in prayer that they together received the baptism of the spirit and that together they became the one church. We must remember that together they spilt out of that room and together they were taught fellowship, broke bread, celebrated baptism and communion and impacted a needy world. This all happened as they were together, united in one heart and prayer. In this day, more than ever, we need to remember the words recorded in Hebrews 10, 25, not forsaken the assembling of ourselves together as the manner of some is but exhorting one another and so much the more as you see the day approaching. If you have gone through hurt, try to resolve it to the best of your ability. If you must find a new location to grow in, try to become someone who contributes to the overall health of the church family and continue growing in the Lord Jesus. Keep your eyes on the Lord and may you be blessed as you serve him. This is Pastor David Rosales of Calvary Chapel of the Chino Valley, California.


Hey, what's going on guys welcome back to another video. So today I'm going to take you through my top five picks for March of 2023. These are just random crappy products either that I've kind of bunched together for the sake of doing a YouTube video. I do put a lot of time and thought into this and they add genuine products that I feel have a lot of potential not just for March 2023 but for the up and coming months. So the way these videos work is I'll start off by showing you each product on AliExpress and just explaining essentially what the product is different benefits and features of it. I'll also show you some actual evidence behind why I think it's such a good product and what has so much potential. So this will be sales numbers or Google trends information and that sort of thing. And then I'll also talk you through what my strategy would be for each of these products. So if I was going to commit myself and choose one of these products and build a business and try and make it a success, then this would be the strategy that I used. So that being said, we won't waste any more time. We jump straight into the first product. So here we are on AliExpress and let's play this video and just take a look at exactly what this product is. You may have seen products like this before. There's a big well-known brand out there called Ridge Wallet that absolutely crushing it. They're making a ton of money. I've got a video coming on Friday where I'm going to break down their entire business and talk about the products and that sort of thing because in my mind it's just ultimately what every person that is getting started with drop shipping should be striving and aiming towards.  So while I was just waffling on about a random company, hopefully you're watching the video and you saw that it's a metal debit card, credit card holder and you can like pop your credit cards out. There's a little kind of strap that holds your cash. Basically it's like a modern day or modern world alternative to the old school leather or wallet or whatever you call whatever your wallet is made out of. There's quite a few reasons then why I think this product has so much potential. Number one, if we look at the order numbers on AliExpress, so the total sales closing in on nearly a million dollars over 50,000 orders and we can see that there's been a massive upward spike in orders for this product so a massive increase in popularity. In today's world fashion and looking good and having luxury, expensive and cool looking items has been more popular than ever. I think the world is going to continue to go that way. So this kind of modern day replacement for the old school wallet I think is only going to grow in popularity. There's only going to be more and more people looking for a product like this. Also with the way that the world is going. So if we have a look at the search time of metal wallet here on Google Trends, this is worldwide 2004 to present. You can see kind of there's been a slow and steady increase in popularity and it's always a massive spike as you come into Q4 too. So if you're getting involved and drop shipping for the right reasons and you're looking to build a proper business and take advantage of those Q4 months, now would be a great time to do that because it gives you plenty of time to establish your brand, test the right products, make sure they're good quality to really then put yourself in a great position for Q4 to take advantage of it. So going back to what I said about the way the world is going, less and less people are carrying a cash. You don't need your typical wallet that holds notes and coins. Products like this just holds all of the kind of necessary cards that you're going to be using on a day to day basis. It's smaller, it's slimmer, it's cooler and like I said, I think only demand for products like this is just going to increase in popularity. To give you kind of like a quick insight into what the video is going to look like on Friday, this is the company I was talking about. This is the UK version. Just to kind of quickly show you if we have a look at similar web, we can see that they're kind of like in and around. There's been a bit of a drop in Jan, but November and December time consistently achieving over 500,000 visits every single month. I've checked out the US version of these guys and it's consistently over 2 million visits per month. So a massive, massive company and here it is, is obviously it's developed a much more refined and expensive and high quality products than the one I showed you on AliExpress. But it just goes to show nonetheless that the demand is there for a product like this. In terms of my strategy then, Facebook ads, interests, tags in, obviously males is going to be your biggest audience for this. And then target people who are interested in fashion, luxury items, money, stylish, I wouldn't be going after the lower end of the market for this. I'd be trying to pitch myself somewhere kind of halfway between what Ridge wallet are doing. Not everybody has 120 quid to drop on a wallet. So if you can get something that looks similar and does a very similar job, but charge say 30, 40, 50 pounds, then I think there's a gap in the market for somebody to be doing that. Moving on to product number two, which is a pretty cool product, has a bit of a wow factor and it's quite visually pleasing as well, which is always super important for social media platforms. I also think that your perfect target person for this is going to be a female over the age of 50. These, at least from my experience, have always been the best and most consistent buyers on Facebook. So play through the video. I haven't actually watched this, but you can probably guess what it is. You can order whatever letter you want and it's like a wooden cutout with a perspex screen and you can put your money in there. It's basically a piggy bank in the shape of a letter. Price-wise as well, I thought it's quite reasonable because it has that kind of handcrafted look. It looks like quite an expensive product, so I imagine it's not the easiest thing to make. So £10.57, even if this offer ends, however, LXpress has always offers going, maximum we're going to be paying 20 quid. That comes with free guaranteed on-time 15-day delivery. You could easily sell this for 40 quid, I reckon, which would leave a pretty decent healthy profit margin of in and around £30. If we have a look at the market as a whole for the past five years in the UK, search term of Moneybox, you can see there's a pretty consistent demand for Moneybox throughout the year actually. However, as we come into summer, demand starts to increase slowly, but surely leading up to those Q4 months. Moving on to the actual strategy side of things. Well, in fact, going back to that, what I'm trying to say, I skipped over that, is that with a product like this, I don't think it's going to be a pump and dump. I don't think it's going to be something that you try and milk for six months and pummel a ton of money in to try and see some return. I think you could build a genuine kind of nice brand and sell a lot of these kind of like wooden effect type products that aim towards grandparents that are going to be buying for their children. As with strategy then, I've already mentioned parents with children up to 10 years old. You can target that as an interest, but ultimately, it's going to be the grandparents. From my experience, they're going to be buying it. So that's going to be the third recommendation. And then I'll target people that have an interest in money saving as well. In terms of like an ad creative, the first thing that comes to me is having an elderly person, somebody of grandparent age talking on camera about how they've bought it for their grandchild when they're first born. And it's a means of saving up and saving some money for them. I think that's definitely the sweet spot for a product like this. And because it has that wow factor, as well as that kind of personalization and specific specificity, if that's even a word, to the actual person without obviously being their name. I think you're going to be on to a winner. The other advantage as well to products like this, you could play it off as something that is made to order. So that'd be a good excuse. If anybody's chasing that order, you can say that it's made to order. And that could be your excuse basically for that one to two week delivery time. Moving on to product number three, a similar type-ish product, but for a completely different market. Again, it's like a wooden effect. It's a shelf basically that comes in many different shapes. So I think again, it's quite a visually pleasing product. So I think it's definitely going to capture people's attention because it's not like you can walk into a B&Q or Dunn Elm or some form of like department store and see this and find and see this exact product. I think advertising the products like this that nobody has seen before, that definitely, at least from my experience, they've definitely been the best products because such social media is such a busy place. Dropshipping is so competitive nowadays. The chances of actually being the first, chances of running a Facebook ad and putting the products in front of someone and that being the first time they've ever seen that product is going to be quite slim. Whereas with the products like this, which is relatively new, I've never seen anybody advertising this before, you will be the first person to put that product in front of somebody else, and therefore you're much more likely to capture the purchase. So about £15 all in, including shipping. Again, it comes with that on time guarantee. You've heard me say it in previous videos before. Don't always go to AliExpress or Reliant AliExpress. It's great for product research. But in my opinion, try and find an agent with a reputable reputation. So it comes in lots of different shapes and sizes. You can get just the moon, you can get the moon and cat. So you can kind of combine interest there and that'd be a new marketing angle. It comes in a love heart form as well. Has this kind of cool beachy type effect as well. There's one in the shape of a wolf. I think you could easily create a one product store around just this product in the different variants. If we take a look at some numbers as well, taken from sell the trend, brilliant product research tool for finding those kind of weird and wonderful products, then we can see there's been a constant increase in demand for this product, a constant increase in order numbers from week to week, which is always a great sign. If we take a look at some product insights from sell the trend, these can be hit and miss to be honest. However, some of them are pretty bang on. So low competition, products are not oversaturated in the market. That basically means there's not that many people selling the product. There's good profit margins. So it takes an average of the stores that is tracking. So it's tracking four different stores. And the average selling price is $55. The product cost is $8. We saw plus shipping it's about 15, which leaves a very decent profit margin of $40. You can definitely make that work with direct marketing on Facebook. It's in a popular niche. These guys recommend like the home decor niche, which probably could work. However, if it was me, then I would definitely be going down this kind of healing crystals route. If you watch my videos regularly, a few weeks ago, I did a review of this Shopify store that had made it was just over a million dollars, I think, selling this. In fact, I think it was on Aliexpress. So it's this product here in the top right hand corner that I'm highlighting now that made over a million dollars selling this product because those kind of healing crystals and spiritualism and meditation type niches are absolutely massive. People are super, super passionate about that sort of stuff as well. People who are interested with that sort of thing, even with just these images. That's the other great thing about this products listing is that you probably don't need to buy one of these things yourself. You probably don't need to create any extra content. You could use this image here. And because it's showing and aimed and has that angle towards those people who are interested in crystals and spiritualism and healing stones, that sort of thing. And then it's already spot on. It's already made to measure basically. So Facebook interests, if I was to go after this one, it'd be IKEA, Home Decor, Healing Crystals, spiritualism, healing stones, all that sort of thing, meditation would be another one, maybe even yoga as well. You could try that one. Just to kind of get grips or get an idea of then of how strong this market is, this is worldwide for the past five years, like there's such a strong and consistent demand for this. So again, it's not a pump and done product. This is a product which will sell consistently all year round, probably with an extra spike in those Q4 months as well. So definitely a long-term and sustainable business here. Moving on to next products though. For those people who do like to kind of hop between products and pump and dump them, I definitely think this is one of those. So it's a pretty cool product. It has like a pretty cool technology. Well, the video demonstrates exactly what it is. It's basically an LED notice board. You can reuse, rub things out, write notes on and what it's to your children, they use as a nightlight or whether you put your shopping list on it because you like that sort of thing. Ultimately though, I'm quite visually pleased in product. And if we take a look at some numbers as well, it's absolutely smashing it in terms of sales on AliExpress. So the total sales is just under $700,000. We can see there's been a consistent kind of spike in order numbers, which means more and more people are buying this month on month a month, which shows a strong demand for the products, which is always a great sign. If it's going the other way, then you should probably stay away from it. So if I was going to try and sell this product and build a store around it, I would probably start like an LED children's nightlight type store. This would be a product. You can get those astronaut lamps, you can get those nightlights, you can get those rocket lamps, those 3D printed rocket lamps, which are pretty cool. And then when it came to targeting the Ed Creative, this one they've got is that's not great. I probably won't use that. I would definitely, unless you could find some other content, but if it was me, I'd probably order a few of these things and send them out to some different influencers to create some content, whether it's on Fiverr. You could even do it yourself if you're confident enough. If you've watched my videos, you know I'm a big UGC guy. So that would definitely be my root in terms of creative. When it comes to targeting, I'd definitely go for parents with young children, grandparents, of course, as such strong buyers on Facebook at least, life hacks, parent hacks, creative ideas, all that sort of thing. Moving on to the fifth and final product then, before you leave the video thinking this is a crappy product, this is just one example. I want to talk more or mainly. In fact, let's start with this then. So let's look at Solar Lights. United Kingdom, 2004 till present, it's dead in January and February time. But then look what happens in March, then look what happens in April, then May. We've got essentially the next three or four months of a significant spike and demand and interest in products like this. So if I have a look at the numbers for the product I just showed you, ignore this kind of step off because of where we are in a year. Like I just showed you, there's going to be a spike coming very soon. So that will start to go up again. But we have over 600,000 in total sales, 33,000 orders. This is no doubt a great product that people are enjoying. Basically, it's some light that goes on the outside of your house. It creates quite a nice effect. You usually see it actually on new builds that are quite expensive. They have these lights that go up and down outside because it just adds kind of like a feel of luxury and makes the house look expensive. So this is kind of like the next best thing for somebody who wants that same effect, but only wants to spend say 20 or 30 quid on a light. So the price of this product, 262, 201 with 15 day delivery. So you're talking about five pounds all in. I'd stick probably 20 quid on top of that to make it 25 per light. What's really good about this as well? Nobody's going to buy just one of these for the house and just stick it on randomly in some location. They're probably going to buy two of them so they can put it either side of a door or they might have two for the front, two for the back, two for the side. People are going to be buying more than one of these things basically. So it's the perfect opportunity to have those multi-buy offers. And before you know it, somebody has spent say 100 quid with you and bought half a dozen of these things. If you don't like that product I just showed you this is another great product in my opinion because you can be super specific now with the types of people that you're targeting because you can obviously target dog owners. And if you ask me, things like this have a really nice effect. And again, it fits that perfect target market. It tends to be, dare I say an older generation that are interested in their gardens, which fits that perfect kind of profile on Facebook. I didn't actually know that they could stick on things as well. I think it's just all in all a really kind of fun loving product that people who love dogs and are into dogs and dogs of their life, they would just absolutely love this. Just building on top of this, don't just think poor solar lights as well. And there's another product, it's an owl, it's a light up LED solar owl. And last year I sold an absolutely ton of them. So the solar light niche is one that's close to my heart. It's one that's undeniable, becomes crazy, crazy popular in the up and coming months. So don't miss the boat on this. It's definitely one of the easier niches I should say to get started in if you're looking to get started in the next couple of weeks. And so with that being said, I'm going to wrap the video up. That's all five products. I hope you stuck with me. I hope you enjoyed the video. More importantly, I hope you take some of these products away and make them work for you and you find some success and ultimately achieve those goals, whatever they may be. If you need any extra help getting started, just leave a comment down below. I read every single comment in my video, so I will see it, I will read it and I will of course reply to you. Thanks for watching guys and I'll see you in the next one. Cheers.