Welcome to the NTN Nightly. I'm Nisha Charles. This edition stops stories. Foundation works begin at the St. Jude's Hospital Reconstruction site. The Government of St. Lucia provides more tax relief to the business sector. The Royal St. Lucia Police Force receives a $30,000 donation from the Department of External Affairs and the NTN Nouvelle-Arcoyole. The Government of St. Lucia is pressing ahead with plans for an improved health sector. The St. Jude's Hospital Reconstruction project is well on the way, with over 300 tons of steel being prepared and laid for the foundation of the project. Approximately 60 construction workers are currently employed on the site, and this number will increase significantly as work progresses. At the Owen King EU Hospital, a sustainable management structure is being sought as the transitioning from the Victoria Hospital continues. Prime Minister of the Honourable, Alan Shasne speaking in the House of Assembly on Tuesday indicated that healthcare remains a top priority for the Government. The Government he noted has invested significant sums of money into the health sector and is working assiduously to get major health institutions on Ireland fully operational. That is why last year we spent $5.5 million as a Government in supporting families in need for healthcare. That is why getting the St. Jude's up and running and opening, that we've improved the quality of the facility at the stadium. That is why we're now improving and have improved the facilities in the primary healthcare services. And that is why we're going to have a massive training program, but more importantly that we're going to introduce a healthcare insurance, a card in which people now, when they are sick, they can go to the doctor. And the benefit to the state is that we will for the first time have a state of health of our country. We will know who has high blood pressure, who is pre-diabetic, and start capturing and addressing those problems before they become crisis. But more importantly that we will now have programs to be able to benefit those people. And we have the empirical evidence, Mr. Speaker, to show whether the fact that we're making a dent in our problems. According to Director of Implementation Nancy Charles, the Government is striving to have a structure that will ensure the sustainability and continuity of the Owen King EU Hospital. A proper governing structure would ensure accountability, transparency and maintenance of the hospital. The ability to fund the hospital according to the Director of Implementation also plays a critical role in the Government's plans. However, she explained that efforts towards the transitioning to the Owen King EU Hospital are continuing. We are currently working on the National Health Insurance, so the Ministry of Finance together with CDB and World Bank, they've started a project in looking at how we can incorporate, if not a full but a partial national health insurance. And with reference to the management structure, the Government has been in negotiation with Cayman Health City for a consultancy service to assist us in putting a proper management structure at OKEU. So you have been hearing a lot that we want to privatize the hospital and give Cayman Health City the hospital to run, and so forth, none of that is the case. We have asked for or we are negotiating a consultancy contract and by that I mean they will be bringing in professionals and persons because they have the worry for all and they know how to put in certain structures for hospital management and ensuring continuity. They will be assisting us with our local institutions who would be hired for the job, teach them, train them so that they can eventually manage the hospital on their own. As it relates to the St Jude Hospital, Charles explained that there were several issues with the existing structure. The condition did not allow for a proper health facility of international standards, and so the Government is taking the necessary steps to improve the facility. Some of the structures including the kitchen, the emergency unit, the warehouse and administrative centre to name a few require some rehabilitation work. I am pleased to say that we have started the process of the new wing of the St Jude Hospital. So let me remind you what is it that is happening at St Jude's. Some of the existing structure at St Jude's is not fit for use. So for example, the unit that was dedicated for dialysis, it was an existing unit, there are cracks in the building, the building is on site and so we cannot use that building for dialysis. It means we have to build a new structure to house the dialysis unit and also the main structure for the operations of the hospital, your operating room, our patient and so forth. This facility also was not keeping with the international standards for a hospital and so we now have to build a new wing for that facility as well. So construction for the new wing of the operating and operational centre for St Jude's Hospital has begun. I can safely say that right now we have begun excavation and we are preparing for the foundation and for the building of the structure. The Government of St Lucia shows the public that no effort is being spread in ensuring the health facilities on island admit international standards and are fully operational. For the Government Information Service, I am General Norville. The Government of St Lucia continues to provide tax relief to the business sector, this time targeting local manufacturers. Prime Minister Hon. Alan Chastney moved a motion in the House of Assembly on Tuesday, October 29th for an amendment to the Value Added Tax Act to zero rate the service of printing. The amendment also stipulated a definition for educational supplies. Hon. Chastney explained the reasoning for the amendment. Educational supplies as defined under the Value Added Tax Act 15.42 including newspapers, trade catalogs and advertising matter, magazines and books and patterns and samples with no commercial value are treated as exempt supplies under the second schedule of the VAP Act. When those same items are however produced or printed locally for a third party the production or printing thereof is treated as a service and subjected to the standard rate of that. So it means that we have manufacturers Mr. Speaker who by virtue of the existing legislation are prejudiced in their own country. The fact is that those items now can be imported and have no that on them yet if in fact those items are now produced in St Lucia they are valuable and we truly believe that this was an error because I cannot believe that either government would want in any way prejudice any of its local manufacturers. The amendment also sought to exempt Value Added Tax on imports of personal items food, clothing, toys and other household commodities contained in barrels from November 15, 2019 to January 31, 2020. The concessions on barrels are in accordance with the following terms and conditions 100% waiver of import duty on personal items food, clothing, toys and other household consumables contained in barrels electronics are explicitly excluded the number of barrels qualifying for concessions is 2 per household the upper limit of the value per barrel is easy $2,500 per barrel on the items qualifying for concessions qualifying items must be for personal use and not commercial use the usual penalties and fines apply if the goods are used for commercial purposes as is customary the appropriate legal instrument is being tabled in this house Honourable House to allow for the exemption of Value Added Tax on all qualifying items food, clothing, toys, household, consumables, personal items imported within the barrels during this period. And that was Prime Minister Hon. Alan Shastney The Department of External Affairs has donated a check of $30,000 to the Royal St Lucia Police Force The donations were made in support of the Marine Unit with funding raised at a Gallard dinner held in Martinique on December 13, 2018 Johanna Sultan is the Council General for Martinique, Guadeloupe and French Guiana The police especially played a very important role in the protection of borders especially when it comes to Martinique and St Lucia I mean we all know that a lot of contraband comes up from South America and St Lucia is really the first border and so in protecting her borders she indirectly protects those of Martinique and the islands further to the north so it was really important for us to assist the police and in assisting them we would also be assisting Martinique so it was really easy to sell the idea to the French they understood exactly where we were coming from and we received a lot of support Deputy Commissioner of Police Milton Daisy expressed gratitude on behalf of the Royal St Lucia Police Force for the donation towards the Marine Unit When I was told that the Marine Unit would be receiving this donation I was very pleased simply because I know about the Marine Unit I worked there and I know what resources are needed for us to be in operation and persons may not know but it costs a lot to maintain the Marine Unit even in terms of the fueling sometimes you have the fuel you do not have the parts and so on so we appreciate this gift of $30,000 it will go a long way in assisting us in putting our equipment together so that we could be out there to fight transnational crime The Czech presentation took place on Wednesday October 30th 2019 and this is the NTN Nightly, do stay with us Think about the children How will we save them? Chemicals and GMOs are not the solution Use organic and join Excessive agrochemical use, additives and genetically modified foods are harmful to health and the environment Join the Good Food Revolution Grow, buy and consume organic A message from Rye St Lucia and the Ministry of Sustainable Development with funding from the GEF Small Grants Program, UNDP Good Food Revolution Welcome back Ryan O'Brien is out on assignment but at this time we note the participation of the youth in Creole Heritage Month The incorporation of Creole Day celebrations among the youth and members of the private sector this year is indicative of the development of the language and heritage in St Lucia Companies were buzzed with activities last Friday Among them, Bank of St Lucia Bank of St Lucia, Souffre, Viejo, Rosalie, Waterfront and Bridge Street all redefined customer service on Friday by treating customers to an early junior Creole experience they would never forget Aside from the distinctive Madras D'Accord the financial institution serenaded customers with traditional folk music and added Creole breakfast to their long list of financial services According to the Bridge Street branch manager Octavian Charles Bank that is primarily rooted in St Lucia's soil Bank of St Lucia takes the island's culture and heritage very seriously In observance of Creole Heritage Month, the bank encouraged all its employees to communicate to customers in the island's native language as much as it was possible to do so The waterfront and Bridge Street branches also featured some of its local customers who sell a variety of locally crafted products in observance of Creole Heritage Month Charles added that Bank of St Lucia has partnered with the FRC on several projects which are currently under construction and are currently under construction In observance of Creole Heritage Month, Charles added that Bank of St Lucia has partnered with the FRC on several projects and is committed to supporting local Junet Creole Activities for 2019 took place in the communities of Beau-Séjeaux, Troselle and Vieillefort Meanwhile, financial investment and consultancy services Limited Fix also celebrated Junet Creole with its customers and the general public The company opened its doors at both its branches treating visitors and customers to breakfast and entertainment Here's Anise Antoine As an indigenous institution, Fix prides itself on culture, heritage, loyalty and family and Junet Creole is one of the many events that allows the company to demonstrate how important those values are to them Every year, Fix joins the rest of Corporate St Lucia to host its own Junet Creole celebrations as a gesture of appreciation to its customers but more importantly to keep the island's heritage alive for the younger generations Roger Williams from Lacklery says he was pleasantly surprised when he walked in I can't believe how many people are here and how many people are going to have breakfast and it's so magical It's the magic of the island that connects with the island Fix is the only island in the world where all its staff are Both branches came alive on Friday with Creole folk music breakfast being served by staff and 3 light false flashes of madras address and carefully placed antiquated products across the room. What stood out for some customers however, wasn't the decor but the close relationship the company has with its clients. My name is Isiya because we are co-fixers in the family. We are young people who need a lot of money to buy food. With the help of the initials, I am part of the Djetwara. I was joined by my mother who opened up for me to buy food for my family. So, to hear me say thank you fix for the money I have to buy food for my family. Financial investment and consultancy services limited was founded by the Honourable George Theophilist who hails from the community of Shwazel. The company's history is rich in St. Lucia's culture and according to company officials, fix will forever stay true to its roots, especially as it approaches its 28th year of doing business in St. Lucia. From the Government Information Service, I am Anisia Antoine reporting. And stay with the NTN Nightly. Up next, Primus Hutchinson is here with more junior quail celebrations in the NTN Nouvelle-Arquail. Everyone is at risk forgetting a foodborne illness. While most foodborne illness cases are mild and go unreported. Long-term health complications and even deaths can occur from a foodborne illness. Foodborne illnesses are caused by contamination of food at any stage of preparation. If you are a food handler involved in home-based food production, meat, fish, chicken or a big shop. As a food vendor, how you prepare food can put your customers at risk. Do you know the risks and how to avoid them? The St Lucia Bureau of Standards can help you. For more information, contact the St Lucia Bureau of Standards at 450546 or email SLBS at candw.lc or visit the website at www.slbs.org.lc. St Lucia Bureau of Standards, making quality and standards our way of life. Welcome back. We join Primus Hutchinson for the NTN Nouvelle-Arquail. My name is Madame. I am the Secretary of State for Information and Information in the government of the GIS. I am the President of the NTN Nouvelle-Arquail. I am Primus Hutchinson. I am the Prime Minister Alain Chastney. I am very happy to be here today. I would like to thank all of you for your time. I am Chastney. The business that has published a book called Artic d'Education, which I found very interesting on the list of taxwaters. I would like to thank you for your time. I would also like to thank the Barelle Commission for the Nouvelle-Arquail who has also tried their best because I would like to thank you for your time. I would like to thank the Commission for the Nouvelle-Arquail who has also tried their best to create a better business. The opposition also supported my presence with the pleasure to meet with you as they approached you to be暂혀. I would like to thank all of you for your time. I would like to thank all of you for the effort that you have done to enable me to join the Barelle Commission. to find the Barrel Commission, which has an advantage over my salary. We also have Prime Minister, a separate body, and the family of the special gas company which was an indicator, a senator, and also a mother, which I consider to have passed away recently. Prime Minister has complemented the government of Taiwan, which observes the national youth and participates here, and observes the salary. It is especially important for international musicians who are here, such as Ronald Bohingson and Louvre François and all the other artists who were performing in Taiwan. The project is to build hospitals in June, and to advance quickly. The project is to deliver a facility that can provide a discussion about whether or not the hospital is the same to receive treatment. This is what Dr. Selma visited. The 28th of October, more than 300 years old, has already been prepared to establish a foundation for the hospital. In addition, it is necessary to work to implement the project so that the employees can continue to work here. The project is also to provide a support for the entire service of the operation through the work that has been done to strengthen the fact that there is an establishment to ensure that the hospital can effectively also operate in hospitals that are facilitated. The 14th of October, the project is to provide a data that can be found on the left side of the building of the hospital. The celebration is to celebrate a very special day, as usual, and all those who organize it will also be pleased to come to celebrate the same. In the village of Azei, there is a big crowd of people who want to celebrate. So, for example, we have three people who are also working here to organize a participation. This is the village of Azei where we have a lot of people who are working here. We have a lot of people who are working here. We have a lot of people who are working here to support the operation. What is the name of the project? The name of the project is the project is called the project of Azei. Who is the director of this project? We have a lot of people who are working here to show the project of Azei. We have a lot of people who are working here to show the project. So, you want to explain what is the project? We are a group of people who are working here to demonstrate. We have a lot of people who are working here. What is the reason for the development of the project? We have a lot of people who are working here because we are working here in the village of Azei. We have a lot of people who are working here to show the project. We are a group of people who are working here Pizzla. What's that Pizzla? Plus that Pizzla, we call it HLA, that's a hondi-grapple. So here we are in a small neighborhood which is very old. So we have our phone, our cell phone, TVs, our radio. So I sell my mom's coffee.  I don't know what to say. I don't know what to say.  Yes, I'm not a special person.   That's what I want to know. But anyway, we're open to business, we're open to business, we're open to business, we're open to business, because my mother's at school, it's a very rare opportunity to go and have breakfast, being here not only because of this, but also because of our school. If the people here want to attend the exhibition, they can come see me, they can come to the conference, they can come see me. So, we are open to business, we're open to business, we're open to business. We can get to you by the name of Madame, underwears by her name, and she's a request, but he can't stop me from exposing him because he knew first of all that he'll expose him in a moment. He can't expose him. What are the three types of problems that you have to deal with? I have to deal with problems that I have to deal with one day, one day and a half. Except for one day, I have to deal with two days a day, I have to deal with seven days a month, I have to deal with three days a month. And I have to do a weekday job. My husband can't stop me from doing that. So you have to sell your house at the other end? Yes, I have to sell my house at the other end, that's my business. The only thing I can do is to sell my house at a different point. Even if you do not sell your house, you will have to do something. The first reason is that I don't stay home every day.  So I asked him if he could come with me. He said yes, he could not come with me. He could not come with me. So he would come with me. That's why I asked him to come with me. We are quite lucky that we are able to do everything here. You just spoke to us before. I am Darion Louis, I am the father of Showa day. I am here for just about 10 minutes from the place where I come from. We are out here with you today. But tell us generally, what is the Showa day like? It is good. We have started this program. This is the show, the crafters have started. We enjoyed it very much. Showa day was very good. We came out from the place where we came from as main location, so Haudia Nuka really really enjoys Haudia. What do you think of Haudia Nuka? Well, I think it's very different. If you want to play stands in natural bamboo, I think it's very local artists who perform Haudia. I think it's Deban Dominic, WCK, Ebb, Midnight Grovers who perform elsewhere. I don't think it's very interactive craft, basket weaving, and it's a small sport, it's a fishing sport. So, I think it's very important to gain a lot of attention to Haudia. It's important to have a lot of people coming in to support us since we know how to do it, it's a lot of money. But, for example, we have a lot of people who support us. And the opposite of the money we have borrowed a year ago, we've received a lot of money. Because we are just helping the poor. So the right now we are supporting it. And we are really helping all of them. If there are people in need of their help, they are willing to pay for our food. They are very willing to buy our food. We are in the mid-air. When it is going to get dark the police will block us. We will be taking care of it... We will be taking care of it... We will be taking care of it... We will be able to live way ahead of you... We will live way ahead of you everyday. So join us tomorrow. Kill Decently See. See you tomorrow! Welcome. You have made an request... You have made an order to make peace. So we can make peace again. Pleter. What he is, he is a local. I better be careful, because the day after that, after I finish my program, I will be able to go to the court for the exam, and if I go there, I won't be able to go home. So every time I go to court, I have to go for the exam. Here's a look at what's happening to us weather-wise. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with scattered showers, and possibly isolated thunderstorms across the windward islands. Elsewhere, fair skies becoming cloudy at times with a few showers. Moisture and instability associated with a share line will generate cloudy periods with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the windward islands during the next 24 hours. Residents and motorists in areas prone to flooding or landslide are advised to exercise caution. A tropical wave located over the Central Tropical Atlantic is more than westward near 12 miles per hour or 19 km per hour and is expected to affect the lesser Antelese by Friday. A second tropical wave located over the Central Tropical Atlantic is moving westward near 12 miles per hour or 19 km per hour. Tides for castries harbor, high at 4.46 p.m., low at 11.39 p.m. Tides for Viewford Bay, low at present, high at 5.53 p.m. Seas moderate to locally rough with waves and northally to northeasterly swells 5-8 or 1.5 to 2.4 meters. Small craft operators and the sea bathers are advised to exercise caution due to rough seas. The sun will rise Thursday at 5.58 a.m. And that brings us to the end of the NTN Nightly. Join us next time at 7 p.m. with a repeat at 7 a.m. You can also catch up with us anytime on the Celusia Government Facebook page or YouTube channel. I'm Nisha Charles.


amily member or loved one and if there is is that an opportunity to consider as consistently as you can start to collect more of that data in a structured fashion and I'll sneak in a little second thing here we've mentioned the palliative care register it's just my lack of knowledge I'm not actually sure how you get on the palliative care register it seems a really obvious question to ask so and how one could feed into the other quick responses to that please Richard? Yep as you know as part of the our response in our submission to the carers bill we've asked for people that are caring for somebody with a terminal illness to have their care plans fast tracked so there will be a if that goes ahead and if that's part of what comes out of the carers bill then there should hopefully be an opportunity there for perhaps whoever's filling that plan in to ask their carer what kind of care that the person that they're caring for is have they been picked up in say the palliative care register and that so there's a really good opportunity there I think in terms of one of the other things we've said about the carers bill is a greater role for GPs in identifying people that are carers and that is again a good place in which someone that might be palliative that's not been picked up gets picked up as well so there potentially is some crossover there and as far as I understand it the palliative care register is the GP sort of maintains and admits people on to that register but there's definitely an opportunity. What qualifies you for the register? Sorry? What qualifies you for the register? I think it's a GP's decision and the diagnosis but others may correct me. I think ultimately initially it was all patients with a cancer diagnosis went on to the palliative care register but yeah. It's limited to cancer I think no it's not but I think there is a need for more other people to with other diagnosis to be added on to the palliative care register and people with a cancer diagnosis often they have multiple comorbidities as well and they may not die because of their cancer it may be because of other things and I think it's a great point that having a carer's assessments is a fantastic way again to collect that information and again if we get this in search of people with carer's assessments we need to be prepared as to be able to support these people as well. Very brief I think if you asked a carer whether they were providing a palliative care service I'm not sure they'd be able to tell you whether they were or not. I think that it needs to just be a little bit more a bit cleverer than that and about the person doing the assessment being able to assess whether the care that's being provided is of a palliative nature or not and that's why it's one reason why what happens with the carer's support plan as will be and the and what's happens with the assessment of the person's care needs as well need to be a bit need to be kind of joined up really in order to be able to identify in order to be able to plan for what future services are going to be required by both. Thank you, myri. Are you okay? Thanks, Dennis. It's on the comorbidity that Trisha mentioned there. I'm a bit worried that we're going into silos here, dementia, cancer, because a lot of people, maybe just through aging process for instance, have sensory problems because of age or mobility problems. People may have acquired arthritis, but there could be heart disease, it could be the effect of a stroke. Other conditions exacerbate, I understand that, but what becomes the principal condition that we're caring for is it the heart disease or is it the dementia, is it the cancer or is it the stroke? My answer to that would be it's the person and their need. First and foremost, what does this person need and what does this family need in order to cope with a series of conditions that they may experience over a number of days, weeks, months or even years? Just to reiterate, I would absolutely agree that people do need specialist input for their conditions specific, but it's about looking holistically at that person and their extended families to vote their needs and addressing those needs in a comprehensive and coordinated way. What we're concerned about as Alzheimer Scotland is when somebody's dementia impacts on their experience of care or their access to it and when we're trying to overcome the barriers that currently dementia creates. As I think I said earlier on, we're interested not only, there are people who die of their dementia, there are many other people who die with dementia, but their dementia has a significant impact on their experience and I can give you statistics around that but time is short. It's important that you do look at the person but that you do therefore look at how the different conditions do have an impact on each other. For example, how the primary condition, if you like, is a physical condition, is something like COPD, then the psychological effects of dementia are going to have an impact there so it is very important that each condition is looked at and that the particular specialised inputs required around each are brought together and are able to be accessed by a person so that somebody isn't prevented from accessing the specialist input that they require because they have one condition, for example dementia, just because they have another. So, I don't think it's a point about silos, I think it's a point about access and bringing it all together and recognising that it's not just about one condition that somebody has.  The written submission from Chaz writes that the NHS boards and local authorities will jointly meet 25 per cent of your funding. We had some evidence, just to reflect on that, that there is around £13.5 of the total cost of NHS funding for Chaz as a minister through Tayside. In that evidence session, the interim director of finance, Lindsay Bedford told us that there was a commitment to visit the baseline and confirm the agreement of hospice running course. Have they been there yet? Thank you, convener, for providing me with the opportunity to discuss this. I'm sure there's a willingness within NHS Tayside to meet with us and we certainly have had a meeting planned, which unfortunately had to be rescheduled. We are hoping to meet with NHS Tayside to discuss the baseline before the end of October. However, that's a discussion around 25 per cent. As you can see in my written submission, there is what I would call an anomaly between the funding of children's hospice services and adult hospice services and my ambition and my early discussions with the Scottish Government are around achieving the 50 per cent of agreed hospice costs, which I'm sure the committee would support. I think that we had some trying to find out and establish what level of funding there was for the hospices. We'll put it polite. It was inadequate the response that was returned on adult hospices in terms of the health boards. Has anyone got a response on that? We don't know. Amy? It's just for us that the issue isn't about hospice funding. It's about the access that people get in charge for, because care tends to happen in the social sector so much more. It's more a discussion around the issues around how health and social care funding joins up with each other, would be the biggest funding issues. I'd like to draw to the committee's attention that you'd like to think about further. In terms of adult hospices, funding arrangements are set out by a chief executive letter and it's meant to be a 50 per cent, but just while I've got my mic on, I think it's worth highlighting that all the evidence that there is says that investing in pallidive care services can be completely offset by the savings that are made in acute services and you actually end up getting a situation where for most people who want to be cared for at home, it's their choice and you save money for the NHS. Just that we had attempted, but the information we had, I think we'd described as adequate, about the 50 per cent target and I was just wondering if you had any knowledge from your point of view whether that target is being met. I would have to check. Okay, that's good. I don't think there's any further questions. Thank you all very much for being with us this morning for this session and for the written evidence, which will be helpful to us in this inquiry. We know that you'll be watching us carefully in the coming weeks. Thank you all very much. We now go into private session as previously agreed. Thank you.


In this module, we will be continuing with our discussion on power laws from a slightly different perspective of probability. One product of this exponential power law feature to nonlinear systems is that they are non-normal, meaning there is statistically no normal average or typical state within the system. To understand this, we need to first talk a bit about what we mean by average and normal. When we say normal, we mean that there is some kind of mean state to the system. In enough samples of the different states within the system, we will be able to compute some average that we can use as a representative of the whole system. So for example, the distribution of people's heights, if we were to plot them, would follow what is called a normal distribution, meaning there will be very many people around the average of say 5 to 6 feet, some a bit larger and some of it smaller than this, say between 3 and 8 feet, but virtually no one outside of this range of states. These normal distributions then have a well-defined centre and then drop off exponentially fast, meaning there is an extraordinary low probability of getting extreme states. Another feature to normal distributions is the so-called law of large numbers, which means that the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed. This so-called law is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the law of large numbers that will bring the net gains and losses back to an average. The normal distribution holds for many linear systems, physical and chemical, but in the world of non-linearity, the idea that there is such a thing as normal, and we should expect this normal, is no longer applicable. The power law nature to non-linear systems creates what is called a long-tail distribution, meaning extraordinary events that are virtually impossible within normal distributions are possible within non-linear systems. These extraordinary events are referred to as black swans. For example, on October the 19th, 1987, on Black Monday, the Dow Jones Stock Market Index dropped by 22% in a single day. Compared to the typical fluctuations of less than 1%, this was a shift in more than 20 standard deviations from the norm. In a normal distribution, this would be virtually impossible, with something like a 10 to the power of minus 50 chance of it happening. Although in normal distributions, extraordinary events like this are virtually impossible, they are much more common in power law distributions, resulting in a very different graph that has a long tail, sometimes called fat tail. These extraordinary events can then have a dramatic effect on the system's average behavior, essentially rendering this concept of average or normal nonsensical, because if we take a random sample, we will get a certain average, but then if we add just one more node to this, it might be a black swan that will radically alter the average again. So if we go back to our example of measuring people's heights, if we have a room of people and then the tallest person in the world walks in, the average height will only change by a few feet. But say we are measuring people's income, and now the richest person in the world walks in, with an income of many billions, this would so radically alter the average income for it to become nonsensical. In a power law distribution, as we increase the number of samples we take, values will not converge to an average, but will in fact diverge with some exceptions. Asking for an average is like asking how big is a stone, or how long is an average piece of string? Within probability power laws describe an exponential relation between the size of an event and the frequency of it occurring. Many types of systems follow this power law distribution, resulting in a long tail graph, from traffic on the internet to the occurrence of earthquakes and stock market crashes. This power law makes extreme events much more likely and renders our traditional conception of average and normal no longer applicable. Again, this ties back to our main theme of nonlinearity being the product of the nature of interactions between components and over time. Our normal distribution is largely derived from the fact that we are taking random samples from components that have no correlation between them. If I flip a coin now, it will not affect the value that I get when I flip it the next time, and will follow a normal distribution. If you win on one casino table, it will not affect whether I will win on another one and so on. But in these nonlinear systems, things are arranged in a particular way. Large websites are large because of the network effect, and because people have specifically chosen to connect to them. There's nothing random about this. Financial crashes are also similar in nature. In a few lectures from now, we'll be coming back to illustrate how power laws are in fact closely related to fractal geometry.


Who's Body? A Lord Peter Wimsey Mystery, by Dorothy L. Sayers, narrated by David Case. CHAPTER ONE Oh, damn! said Lord Peter Wimsey at Piccadilly Circus. Hi, driver! The taxi man irritated at receiving this appeal while negotiating the intricacies of turning into Lower Regent Street, across the route of a 19-bus, a 38B, and a bicycle, bent an unwilling ear. I've left the catalogue behind, said Lord Peter deprecatingly, and commonly careless on me, do you mind putting back to where we came from? To the Savile Club, sir. And no, a one hundred and ten Piccadilly, just beyond. Thank you. Thought you was in a hurry, said the man, overcome with a sense of injury. I'm afraid it's an awkward blaze to turn in, said Lord Peter, answering the thought rather than the words. His long, amiable face looked as if it had generated spontaneously from his top hat, as white maggots breed from gorgonzola. The taxi, under the severe eye of a policeman, revolved by slow jerks, with a noise like the grinding of teeth. The block of new, perfect, and expensive flats in which Lord Peter dwelt upon the second floor, stood directly opposite the Green Park, in a spot for many years occupied by the skeleton of a frustrated commercial enterprise. As Lord Peter led himself in, he heard his man's voice in the library, uplifted in that throttled stridentcy peculiar to well-trained persons using the telephone. I believe that's his lordship just coming in again, if your grace would kindly hold the line a moment. What is it, Bunter? Her grace has just called up from Denver, my lord. I was just saying your lordship had gone to the sale when I heard your lordship's latchkey. Thanks! said Lord Peter, and you might find me my catalogue, would you? I think I must have left it in my bedroom or on the desk. He sat down to the telephone with an air of leisurely courtesy, as though it were an acquaintance dropped in for a chat. Hello, mother! Not you! Oh, there you are, dear! replied the voice of the Dyerger Duchess. I was afraid I had just missed you. Well, you had, as a matter of fact. I had just started off to Brocklebury's sale to pick up a book or two, but I had to come back for the catalogue. What's up? Such a quaint thing! said the Duchess. I thought I'd tell you.  Thibbs! said Lord Peter. Thibbs! Oh, yes! the little architect man who's doing the church roof. Yes? What about him? Mrs. Throgmorton's just been in quite a state of mind. Sorry, mother, I can't hear. Mrs. Who? Throgmorton. Throgmorton, the vicar's wife. Oh, Throgmorton, yes. Mr. Thibbs. Sample complete. Ready to continue?


What are some things happening in the NBA that you wish more people were talking about? That's what I asked on Twitter last night because we had zero games and I was just trying to figure out what the heck do I wanna talk about? What do I wanna do? So as a guy that watches as much basketball as I do, obviously there's a lot of storylines and things happening around the league that I either don't get a chance to talk about or I completely, completely miss. And this is an opportunity for us to get flowers from for some under talked about players slash team.  Very busy dude, as you can see, he's in a car right now doing that interview. He's a busy dude, very cool dude. I'm just saying, the link is in the description if you wanna support or watch the episode with Nasred. Like I said, I will continue to promote the Can't He Beat The Podcast every chance I get. We're starting to get more and more NBA plays. It's a beautiful thing. I got some more in the back pocket, just coming out soon. Also coming out soon are these hats and an entire shooting stars collection for the Enjoy Basketball brand that is coming out on Thursday. I'll give you more details about that in tomorrow's episode. Let's get into some of these things that we should be talking about. The first one comes from OptimisticKT, Sanderic Lively being the second best player in the draft and starting at center for a playoff team when he's the second youngest lottery pick. Brankin' these young dudes is kinda irrelevant to me, but we can definitely, definitely give our flowers to Sanderic Lively because from the very first moment he walked on the NBA court as far as an official game in the game against Wimby, a lot of us open our eyes like, oh boy, is this the guy? Cause again, I don't watch college basketball, but I remember when the draft was happening, we were doing a live stream and my guys that do watch college basketball, I was like, yo, that is the perfect center for Luca Doncic. He's relatively raw, but once he starts to put it together as a rim roll, as a defender, well, Luca Doncic, that can be kinda scary. And we're just 19 games to his NBA career and we're starting to see that. Like he started off, of course, that first game against Wimby where he looked like the better rookie, but his minutes have changed a little bit, whether it be foul trouble or Jason Kidd finding out different rotations and stuff. That last game against OKC was his best game of his NBA career. And ultimately they ended up losing that game, but from the very first moment to the very end, he was what? The second best player on the Dallas Mavericks? You can argue that he was what? The second best player on the course, again, specifically that game. And he was talking about Shay on the court, he was talking about J-Dubb, J-Homegren, like he might be a player that gets up for these type of things, because now that I'm thinking about it, he had the good game against Wimby, he had the great game against Kshet. He's just looking at these other bigs in his class, because again, Kshet was last year, but anyway, in his rookie class, like, hold on, I can hold my own. This draft class in general just has a bunch of really tough defenders or guys that project to be really good defenders from up top of Victor Webnyama. Again, I'm adding, chatting this one. The Thompson Twins, even though I'm in Thompson as in played a ton. Anthony Black, Balau Kula Bali.  We can go on and on and on, like the defensive potential of this draft class as a whole. And Derek Lively sits towards the top of that list because we talked about him being a raw talent. If he could put it together, he don't look as raw as a lot of people anticipated, in my opinion. Like, yeah, he's not going to be a duke that's going to put the ball on the floor, a hezzy, and go up for a strong lay. But rolling to the rim, good hands, good defensive instincts, where there are a lot of times where they were running pick and roll with the OKC Thunder. And let's say it was Josh Giddy as the roll man.  And we just looking, I'm just talking about the shots that he were blocked, but the ones that he changed just by him being at the rim and so on and so forth. He's been amazing. And when you have a guy like Luka Donchis that can put the lob on the money for you every single time, I can only see him getting better and better and better. The next one is Brandon Swoles, my fall Brandon. I know that's probably not how you pronounce it. Jalen Suggs figuring it out on Twitter. I have this little series called Jalen Suggs Moments. I know it's a bad title series, but it is what it is. When I'm watching OKC, I'm sorry, I'm watching Orlando Magic Games and I'm finding a moment for Jalen Suggs, right? Because he is such a high energy, very emotional basketball player, there are so many moments throughout his games where like you can count it as a Jalen Suggs moment. So I got to pick a choose, which out of the seven moments is worth tweeting about. Jalen Suggs has become one of my favorite role players in all the association. Some of y'all have been around here for a long time. You know of a thing called the Kenny Pharrell All-Stars. I'm putting together my ballot this year other than the season. Jalen Suggs is one of the captains. You can argue that at all of the perimeter defenders in basketball so far this season, Jalen Suggs has been the best or you can't get further than number five without mentioning the name Jalen Suggs. And also he's now shooting with 37% on four three-point attempts per game. Like the three-point shot is coming around and you add the defensive intensity and stuff. Like when you look at that draft class, you look at the top guys, you feel like Jalen Suggs did not live up to expectation. I can understand that obviously he's at what, fourth, fifth overall pick in the entire draft. But when you take it at face value at the player that he is right now at 22 years old, you can feel pretty good about that draft if you're the Orlando Magic, especially since they're one of the better teams in the association through the first month. Jaden McDaniels-Goat says small market teams dominate it. Now the idea of a small market team is up for debate because like, okay, so here's a good article that tells you like these are the large markets, these are the media markets, right? So like the teams that are playing really good basketball right now in the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Denver Nuggets, Orlando Magic, technically are not small market teams. These guys are the smaller markets. But we kind of group all of these together. If you're not the LA Lakers or the Chicago Bulls or in New York or Philly or Dallas, you kind of looked at it as a small market team. But a lot of these teams have put it together. And there is a tweet the other day by Brett Usher. Let me see if I can find it. And it was about Anthony Edwards. They say Anthony Edwards needed a bigger market but the dude is 22 and has already been to the playoffs twice and he was in a hip movie and has a signature shoes, the best player or tied for the best player in the league record-wise. And then on this, Cal Coolsman said big markets don't matter anymore. Which I think has become in the reality. Like, I felt like when I was younger and I'm only talking about, let's say, five to 10 years ago, when you need, when you wanted to do these type of things, you wanted to be in movies, you wanted to have a poppin' signature shoe, you needed to be in one of the top markets. Now between him, Giannis, Jean-Marin, Lamello, you don't necessarily need to end up in one of the bigger markets to have a successful off-court career.  And that's not the case anymore, y'all. And now though, I feel like NBA front offices and so on and so forth are, I'd say it's smarter now than they've ever been, where you're able to build in these smaller to media-sized markets without having to go out and get one of the superstar free agents, draft the whale, making the trades, and then bringing people in that will love the city. So it is cool to see, it's cool to see that it is balancing the self out where it's not just I'm in California or I'm in New York for me to be successful as a player when championships or be a marketable player. I like this when the emergence of Kobe White and the consistency of Patrick Williams now they'll be in the sideline. Tony Hawk, Skater Boy, said it's been two games, brother, let's not get ahead of ourselves and you're right, but you're also wrong because I want to root for these dudes, okay? Also, is that a free-in? That is this free-in. One of the best shows of the season, I'ma say that. My number one show of the season. No, it is kinda cool. I talked about it briefly on the Kiddy Beach podcast, but Kobe White has turned into a different player, which is cool. I'm not even just looking at just two game sample sides for Kobe, it's gone back for a couple different games or so. Bulls fans are just kinda happy to have a new life in the team over the last couple of games and hell, you can argue that they were scheduled loss of the Pelicans or you can argue about the Milwaukee Bucks struggles defensively. I don't really care to see my two of my younger players, my North Carolina players go out and play good hoops over the last couple of games. That's, I don't think it's something that most people care about or should be talking about, but I'm just saying, keep your eye on Kobe White specifically if you have not been watching Chicago's Bulls ball because he's been looking better and better every single game. That's all, that's all I'm saying. Ben says to consistency on defense, Alperin Shagoon has played with this season. There has been a lot of talk about his offense, but his defense has been slept on. I just butchered the heck out of that tweet, but you understand what I'm saying or what he is saying. And I agree to an extent, right? I think Alperin Shagoon has been significantly better this year than his first couple of years in his NBA career, defensively, but because he is such a great offensive player, the defense will always be under appreciated, I would say. And I feel like unless you come into the league as a guy that it's immediately a defensive and a positive impact, that the idea of you being a poor defender is gonna follow you until the masses really get into your game. Like, Nikola Yoko's a perfect example of this. Now, Nikola Yoko's was not a very good defender the first couple of years of his career, but slowly he started to put it together. And now I think most people recognize that Yoko's is not one of the best defensive players in the league, but he is an adequate defensive player. And if you have the offensive upside, like Alperin Shagoon in the offensive production, like Alperin Shagoon is starting off in year number three, and you can say that every year he's getting better defensively, that you can feel good about him being your five, because at the end of the day, I think that you need to have an adequate to good defensive center to hold you down. And most playoff series and most times you're trying to go on a run. Now, it might be a little bit early for the Houston Rocks to think about going on a run, but you talk about them building what their future of their franchise is, to have it that LP is not this revolving door defensively or have it so he's not one of those defensive centers that doesn't give effort or doesn't understand the defensive side of the ball. It just means a lot for their future. I think I personally have to tap in a little bit more to his defense to understand whether or not, you know, what being a sand here is completely true about it being slept on or whatever. But I do recognize that he's not a bad defender anymore, but is he better than maybe I think? I don't know, I gotta watch more, I guess Houston Rocking game. Chris said, this man being the MVP. I love it, I love it, I love it.  Last year he took that first jump. We were like, okay, clutch is playing in the league, the Sacramento Kings are in the playoffs, yada, yada, yada. He has taken another jump on top of that. It's so cool to see as a Deer and Fox fans to see that next jump. Because we knew if he put his hand down and got to the rim, there was not really many people messing with him. We knew, especially based off last year, did that mid-range jump shot is silky smooth and that's his go-to spot in the half court. But now he is attempting 8.33 pointers per game, which is five more per game than last season. And he is shooting 37%. I don't know what you do about that. If you were guarding this man, how do you stop him if his three-point shot is coming along? Again, 13 game sample size we'll see if it holds up the entirety of the season. But 37% adds another element to this man's game when he was already not unguardable, but close to unguardable. Like the idea has been, well, you slow Deer and Fox down, you can not neutralize him, but you can mute him quite a bit. This season that is not the case. He has been a significantly better half court player this year versus in the transition. And that don't even make sense. When I say that aloud, it doesn't make sense, but all of the numbers in the eye test says that's true.  Give him a grenade. Give him the ball with five seconds left in the shot clock. He gonna make some magic happen. The numbers say on grenades, last couple seconds of the shot clock, he has had a 1.25 points per possession which puts him in the 93% tile. You know how demoralizing it is to play defense for 20 seconds and still give up a bucket? Deer and Fox has given you that bucket. I don't know, I just been impressed with everything that Deer and Fox has brought to the table. And they have a few players on their team that are not playing to expectation. And eventually if you feel like those things are gonna average out, right? Like he and Murray can take, like starts to shoot the ball better or Harrison Barnes gets back on track. You look at this team and saw that they were the 3C last year and you feel good about them being, because you look at before the season started, I think a lot of people recognize there was like 11 to 12 teams that are gonna be competing for 10 spots. And I know a lot of people left the Sacramento Kings off like, oh, the second year after the big year is the harder year. When you think about what Deer and Fox is doing, you think about some bonuses production and you think about the means averaging out for the rest of the players, you feel pretty good about the Sacramento Kings keeping their spot in the playoffs. There are a couple other ones like that I kept seeing like Tumani Kamara. I have not watched a ton of Portland Trailblazer games and have an opinion about him, but now that I see a lot of people talking about it, I'm gonna try to lock in a little bit. Mitchell Robinson was one that got a lot of love and I talked about him a little bit on the podcast where he has become one of the, maybe the second best player on the New York Knicks so far this season because of his defense and everything. Overall, there are just a ton of stuff that have gone under the radar. And we might have to do a video like this every couple of weeks so we can all get caught up on hoops. Leave a like, subscribe or watch or listen to the podcast when I was reading Spotify, Apple, YouTube, it's everywhere.