The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray. Feeling good, Lewis. I wanted to bring up this chart here from our good friend Mike over in Poland. I think he lives in Krakow, but I'm not sure. But Mike, it's good to send this chart to us. This is my trade of the day, folks. We were looking to buy the wheat. It rallied 20 cents off the bottom. One slight problem. I put the order in to buy it at $5.92.5 and it got to $5.93.5. So by this $25, we left $1,200 on the table. But they made it up to us, by the way. I had to stop in on the S&P at $45.39 and lost 10 points on that. I was $5.45.40. And then, of course, we lost $500 in the crude oil today. But we made it back, folks. Those of you that follow the teachings that we try to do here at TFNN, we watched something called the 3A2. That is really a good indicator of a trend change. And we had that going on today in the stock market. I'm going to bring it up here so you'll be able to see it. Dow Jones today started as the weakest, and it certainly had a weak move here, but you'll be able to see here. There's what happened. There was your 3A2 after the big break right here. And then, boom, down she went, and it completed the pattern down here, making it back both losses today. So it ended up being a scratch day, and at the end of the day here, we're going to move it. But the crude oil is the one that I wanted to talk to you about, folks, because my specialty is looking at these markets intraday, and sometimes I'm better at it than I think I am, but sometimes I get it absolutely right. This time, we sold the crude oil this morning, and it was a beautiful 61% retracement there at 82.15. It backed off to 81.95, and then immediately stopped us out. We lost our 50 points on that. But let me show you what happened to the crude oil. Just looking at the ABCDs on the day, I want to get this up here. This is why I do those day trading things, because on days like this, you get to pick the pockets of some people.  Pretty soon it adds up. But look at this beautiful three-drive pattern that we had right here. There's drive one, drive two, drive three. It's a perfect ABCD stopping exactly at the 1.618 level and is kind enough to stay there for 15 minutes. And then it breaks down, and what does it do? It rallies all the way up to the 3A2 and drops another $400. So that's the advantage of the work that was done by Manuel Mandelbrot and Fractals. That pattern, that ABCD pattern that you're seeing right here, that's why everything works the way that it does. Does it work that way all the time? Heavens know, but I missed one here. Look at this. There was an A leg here. There was a B leg here, a C leg here, right out of 61% retracement. And then boom, there it went. You had double, double reasoning up here to do it. You had a 1.618, two ABCDs. Can't ask for anything more than that. Turned out to be okay. They don't always work, but you know, like I said, you're going to be right about two out of three times and not many golfers, you know, do that well. So who knows? And there's Mike from Niagara Falls. Mike, you live in Poland now, don't you, buddy? Yeah, I do. But see, I like to keep it a mystery. So I don't know where you are, but we're glad to hear from you. Thank you for the week, Charlotte. Very good. So I save a lot of money on long distance. Sure. I'm following that December week trade. Yes. And I'm paper trading it right now. I'm in at 5.99. Okay. That's about, I got in two minutes. I got basically in 20 minutes after 8.30. So around 10 to 9. Okay. I got in. Okay. That's a nice run for you. What's your upside? Well, I don't know. This is just the first day. And if it's right, you can see this was, this had to be short covering because you made new contract lows and then all of a sudden the market reversed. So that causes people to come in to go short covering. What you don't want to do is you don't want it to close at a loss at any time. So make sure you have your stop at the break-even point. Yeah. Don't everybody go back that far. Look at pattern, price and time. So explain how you, how you targeted 5.92 and a half. It's very simple. All I did was I went over the last six days of trading. I measured those six days from the low to the high and I measured it by 1.618. And that number came in at 5.91. So I shaded it by a penny. I should have shaded it by two pennies. And then that's where I got the number for it. But the fact that, you know, what that was happened to be the low of the day, you know, well, so that turned out to be pretty good. That's all I did. And it was a daily chart, too. It was not something that I was looking at interday. I'd done that at 1.30 in the morning when I sent it out and said, you got to take a look at this today.  So it's just a pattern. That's all it is. So how about this? How about taking your measurements, right? And then making sure you get filled and just add like two or three cents. That way you get filled. You can do that very easily.  And sometimes you'd like today, I got stopped out of the high-tech in the S&P. I'm watching it. So when I can see that happening right after report, it hits the stops. I went right back in at 37. And so, but anyway, that's all I'm looking at right now. Maybe just somebody in the pits following you. Maybe some market maker in the pits are following you. And they're basically trying to do a basic... No. No. Listen to me, Mike. Listen to me. I watch charts, not all the time, but most of the time. And I can tell you, because I put in a lot of orders. I mean, I'm not, you know, I'm not just saying that I put in orders. I put in orders. And I can tell you these orders that you put in, they are religious. And I don't care. You can get within a quarter cent, one cent. It won't hit you. I had one last night in gold within ten cents of my stop. They didn't fill me. So, you don't have to worry about that. That's the reason I went to Chicago in 1983, 8082 to find out if it was fair. Now it's electronic. They can't screw with that. But to me, you know, when I trade and lose money on the NASDAQ, I feel that there's an invisible hand. Like there's someone there controlling this market. No. First of all, the NASDAQ is like the witch of the wicked wister of the West. That thing is very, very, not insane, but it's like the pork bellies of the financials. And it's just very wild. Okay? So I don't like to trade it very much. Now, when it gets quiet, sir, I'm going to take a look at it. But most of the time, if you trade the S&P or the Russell or the Dow Jones, you're going to be okay. And even the Dow Jones, yesterday after the close mic, the Dow Jones rallied 140 points after the market closed in New York at four o'clock. The futures market was still open and the Dow Jones went up 140 points. Yeah, that's because of the earnings. That's because of a sales force. Well, is that on the Dow? Is that in the Dow? Okay, it's a component of the Dow Jones. Well, see, I wasn't aware of that. So that's probably the reason behind it anyway. So hey, just remember, these markets are very fair. Just the fact that the NASDAQ is a little squirrely. I don't trade that. So, okay, we'll be right back, folks. Thanks, Mike, for calling in. Appreciate it. Thanks, Mike, for calling in. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to tfnn.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand, TFNN Educating Investors. 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To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Call now. Toe free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, folks, stay with me here. I'll bring you another chart here. Today, I talk about this 3A2 pattern so often that I'd like to bring it to your attention because if you pay attention to it, it'll sometimes give you some pretty good ideas of what you want to be doing now. If we take a look at this chart that I'm going to bring up next, and it is something we haven't seen in quite a while, but it's had a heck of a move here, and this is natural gas as we get ready to take a look at this. This is just a 13-minute chart, folks, over the last few days. But look at the low that we made on the week, just last week, just, excuse me, three days ago. Look at that. Right at the 3A2. Hit it, and stay there. Stay there for a good half an hour and then explode it to go up to new high grounds. That's why, you know, if you're trading these really wild markets like we've got going here right now, it's important that you pay attention to that because it'll give you some really good ideas of what you're looking at as you're going through watching some of these markets unfold, the way that they do. They don't always do what you want them to do, but when they do, they're very, very exciting. Today's a little frustrating when the people that I listen to me, I miss one order and get two others, but that's the name of the game, folks. Some day it's chicken salad, some day it isn't, but here's the main chart. Do you want to pay close attention to, folks? This is a 60-minute chart here on the S&PX, which is the cash S&P, not the futures. And you're going to see a little question mark on this thing right here and you'll be able to get up here and take a look at it in just a second here. This comes from our good friend, Mr. AS, over in the UK. You'll notice here that we make this beautiful ABCD pattern up into this area right here, right where the question mark was. And of course, we've had to sell off, not a lot. You know, we came down from what? We came down to 45-15, 25 handles. That's nothing in the S&P. Boys and girls, let's talk just one tiny little bit about something personal. If you know anybody that is going to go to London, if you're here in the United States and you're going to be going to London or any place in England, sometime in the next 30 days, please call me. I have to deliver a book and I don't want to send it by mail or by luggage and I will be happy to pay for you but the guy will pick it up wherever you are in the UK but that's the way I'd like to do it. So my phone number is 877 that's the CFNN number<PHONE_NUMBER>. It's<PHONE_NUMBER>. If you are going to the UK, preferably London, within the next 30 days or so, please let me know. I'll send you it and you can get deliver it and I'll make it worth your while. I don't want to use the post office because I don't trust them and the second thing is is they want to charge me to send a little book $78. Can you believe that? $78 for a book that weighs 9 ounces. I tell you it just really scares me when I hear stuff like that going on really watching here as we see some of these things unfold. Now we're having a pretty good rally going here we're rallying about 11 points here in the S&P so far off of that bottom but today's a really important day cycle wise folks. This double full moon, the blue moon that we have is very important. It's called the super full moon for a reason we got the moon as close to the earth as it can be, that's perigee so we want to watch that also so it's usually a big thing so you can look into your charts and usually within a day or two you're going to hit those pretty close to right on the money. The interesting one today was the tremendous move that we had in the crew at All Complex folks we started the day at 79.10 we went all the way up to 83. I believe the high was 83.70 or something like that let me believe that one, no not quite it was 83.40 it was a high so it rallied $4,000 overnight and now we're back to 83 believe it or not this is just amazing we had that 3.8 2.8, let's just draw this up since we're looking at kicks and giggles here boy this is really wild action you got to love this we're right at the old 78.6 right now here in the crew also let's get this drawn in for the folks to see it and if I were a betting man, which I'm not I'd be looking to see if we can get this little puppy up to show the folks what it looks like and you'll see that's I'm just looking at a 4 minute chart and please hit the button and it did there it is right there there was your 3.8.2 this was a $500 move down and here's where we are right now I just sold it right there just a little tiny bit above below that low and I put my stop right above the high I'm risking 30 pips that's all I'm risking so that's what I'm watching my back things start coming down and I have my stop right here once I get a 30 point cushion if I get one then what I'll do is I'll put my stop and break even and let her rip to see what it's going to there's two negatives about this one I'm way above the opening price late in the day but the good part is is my risk is controlled I'm really right at a really really close level here for putting the trade on if I were to do that which I did I know I know I have to risk just $300 and I made a nice piece of change on this one here so I've got a couple of bucks to spare on this so that's what I'm doing is I'm looking at could these patterns happen all day long on all kinds of different things okay so what we're trying to do now is just to find the ones that are relatively easy to work this is an easy one because I have a controlled risk that's what the whole thing is about now if this were going straight up and I didn't have anything else so then there's some trouble involved and it might not work and believe me I have a lot of them that don't work so but what I do is I just keep looking and keep digging because eventually you know you're going to find that what they call the little blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while that's how he feeds himself so that's what I'm doing is I'm watching this particular trade unfold here so right now I'm under water by about 10 points and I got my stop at 20 points above that high so if you get me I will say goodbye because I had a nice run on the downside didn't get all of it but I got a nice piece of it so I'm willing to give back some of it if I happen to be if I lose on this trade so those are the ones that I'm paying very very very close attention to and I just are really close to getting stopped out but not yet I'm still about 10 pips away and we'll see if that's going to work or not folks when I talk about the risk when I'm looking at all these patterns the ones that don't work you just get out of dodge that's why this morning when I made the early morning video we were just shorted the crude oil it worked really good for about $200 and then the market reversed when I set the video out we were out $150 or 15 pips and so by the time they got the letter we were already stopped out it went up 50 pips above our our sell price and so we stood I just just took a hickey here for $300 so I said thank you very much that pattern is now failed in my opinion because it's gone above the 78% level so that's what I was risking right there I the perfect example of what I'm looking at when I'm trading because if I hit it right it's going to be worth a lot of money and if I'm wrong not someone asked me what it is why did you pick 30 pips well I made three times that on the way down okay so all I'm going to do now is I'm going to find out what I'm able to recoup some of it but I wasn't able to so I'm willing to give some of that back and that's the only reason I picked it and 30 pips beyond the 786 doesn't work stay tuned for Michael Moore folks he's going to talk to us about the crude oil complex and gasoline, heating oil and natural gas so we'll be right back folks with Mike Moore of More Analytics The Gold Report As a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange The Gold Report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations The Gold Report New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com He's responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns you can take 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After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com Educating Investors Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 am to 4.00 pm eastern for free! Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN Educating Investors You can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV Okay, we're back folks with Mike Moore more analytics. Michael tell us what's going on with Crudall. We had 83 bucks and we're back there again right now. Where is it going, buddy? How are you, Larry? I am good. Let me pull it up here for you. Okay, so we have some unique things going on in the market right now and the cracks in the spreads are really blown apart. Let me pull up the Crudall here for you. So I said, I don't know if everybody can see this or not, but the trade above 79.97 won's a decent strength we'd seen $2.38 of that and then another piece of that this morning if you may recall just as a sort of a backup we held exhaustion here failed below a bearish formation here another one for over here and then we took out this bullish formation here and now we've also taken out this upper formation this morning rallied pulled right back down to it in our rallying again. However interestingly I'm just going to jump around a little bit here for a minute. Sure the heating oil had started a bearish correction up here and then failed below a bearish formation and then another bearish formation so in general this is bearish while Crud is bullish that rarely happens but when it does cracks can move enormously so if you take a look at the heat crack here the heat crack for those of you don't know is the spread between the heating oil and the Crudall and they call it a crack spread because when Crudall comes into a refinery it goes through a machine called a cracker and cracks out of it the heating oil or the gasoline but if you can see in here in the heating oil we got bearish right below this line up here the other day more bearish here more bearish here and just in a matter of three days it's about almost $12,000 per contract meaning that if you were long the Crud instead of the heat you would have made 12 grand more to the upside or if you were short the heat and not the Crud and let me just jump around that's a huge amount the Arbab also had failed below a bearish formation then another one came back up through it so it's currently sort of bullish although it's chopping around right here but that's also why this Arbab the heat spread since the heat has been so strong we had seen this shown this on previous shows this big move down here and I said we are approaching the last part of this structure and I think that may now be complete but even that financial difference is just a difference of 6 grand under 24 hours wow is that an unusual amount you guys were watching this what's that? isn't that an unusual amount? yes that's why you should always pay attention to what's going on in these spreads because there is enormous profit potential in these spreads that you can make and even if you're looking at the Crud all you might as well be looking at this anyway this is a gigantic difference in your equity curve just this move down here in the Arbab to heat that's a matter of 13, 14 grand in just under 2 weeks wow one thing I wanted to bring up though we were talking about this in the last show is the Brent if you recall in the Brent we pulled up here I said the trade above $8233 projects us upward $13.90 and we've only seen $5.77 of that so far so that was a break above a longer term line over here we rallied up we got the $5.70 rolled back over but since we've taken out this bullish formation this suggests a good likelihood of seeing more of that $13.90 i.e. it should also pull up the WTI with it I go through that too fast no no no repeat that though please I'd like to just for my own personal I'd like to hear that in the Brent here I don't know if you can read this but I said the trade above $8233 projects this upward $13.90 and we had attained $5.77 of that for holding exhaustion here failing a bearish formation failing another bearish formation but now we take it out of bullish formation which suggests that now we might see more of that $13.90 that makes sense to the upside especially if we take out these highs that makes sense that makes sense yes it sure does did you want to take a look at the natural gas I sure do that's been really wild today my goodness I happened to be watching it boy it was a wild one for sure before I do that one other thing this is the DCD spread right here and the DCD spread is the spread of the entire curve and the crude oil and we have broken up back above a significant bearish formation here and that's why we're seeing all the strength come in and if we take out this upper line up in here which comes around $609 to $611 we take that out decently then it's kind of a warrant of like another $240 ticks to the upside which would also be quite bullish for the outrides in other words this spread is often an indicator of what you're going to see in the outrides as sort of a leading indicator not always but alright natural gas really been chopping around here we have made this full structure to the downside we got bullish on the break above here and here and we've made a bullish correction we held the original exhaustion right in here rolled over and we rallied up to try to test for new highs again rolled over a little bit also so it's kind of hard to say right here what this is just a bullish correction against this and then we're going to start a new bearish structure or whether this is actually in the midst of a new bull structure to the upside I'm kind of tending towards the latter but we'll have to see did you want to take a look at the metals or the S&Ps let's do that let's do gold and silver and then we'll take a look at the indices okay so gold I've warned today should have a range expansion meaning today's range should be greater than yesterday's range let me pull this up here for a second bear with me well I just deleted it give me a second okay here's the gold just recently I'd said that we held exhaustion down below at 1915 and 191090 if you remember we were talking about this in a couple of shows ago we held it once here a second time here and a third time this was a macro exhaustion level and we'll really see a macro move out of it and then I said the trade above 191910 minus 2 ticks per hour warned of renewed strength we'd seen $58 of that and then I said decent trade above 17190 we'll project this upward $74 so this is a really key line this one up above this is a formation that comes down all the way from the highs so it would be best if this rolls over a little bit more and then breaks up through it because that would give it even more credibility and these were the other you know so we held this exhaustion broke about this bullish formation this bullish formation and we're rallying up Mike, when we come back from the break would you pull up one of those spreads as a chart so I could see it as a chart the one that you like first yeah just pick one or two of them so that I can see what the chart looks like a line chart or a bar chart whatever you have sure thing you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN dot com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN dot com educating investors are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders? head over to TFNN dot com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to visit TFNN dot com right now to join thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN Educating Investors an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ we're back folks talking with Mike Moore of more analytics Mark I know Mike I know you have your website up and it's you want to go to more analytics it's M-O-O-R analytics dot com if you could put up a chart mark mark of a just what a spread chart looks like I used to do July bean spreads diesel July oil I don't do spreads anymore so could you show me what that spread looks like so that I can do my analysis as a spread trader just to see what it looks like just pick one and blow it up so we could take a look at it sure this is can you see my screen yeah you've got about too many things there just pick one so that I can see it clearly because I'm a this would be an example of the heat crack this is the spread between the heating oil and the crude okay now what over what period of time is this this is a daily chart so each one of these bars represents one day of price movement wow that's a big move whatever that was that must have been the movement in crude oil right yeah like I said you know this just on a financial perspective I mean just in five days here that's a matter of almost 13 grand per lot wow yeah can you can you blow it up even more because you can there's a lot of space on there that I can't make any heads or tails out can you can you get I hate to say this can you get rid of the moving averages sure that's what I want to see that's what I want to see right there yeah yeah that's good okay yeah I can I can make a case for that I can see the ABCD that's fine okay very good yeah did you want to go back to yet dude no which bread was that that was gasoline to crude or what that was the that was the heating oil crack so that was the heating heating heating heating oil to crude yeah okay now is that a one-to-one ratio yes but they have multiple ratios I mean you can do them they have there's different ratio spreads but this is the most common one is the straight ratio all right now that being said I wouldn't say that that is a straight what's the best way of putting I don't I don't think that that's a you know volatility to volatility hedge because the the heating oil for example if I look at heat my average volatility I'm right in there right now is 849 ticks okay so 849 849 times 0.42 gotta give you that amount and crude dollars so it's basically moving heating oil is basically moving $3 and 56 crude points a day whereas the crude oil itself is really only moving 154 ticks okay all right I see that yes they're both related but he's moving much harder than the crude is mm-hmm did uh so we talked about the gold let's talk about gold next if we could please okay yeah so gold's been creeping up here I think this is a bullish structure and not just a correction from the move down from the highs we talked about this on the show last time I believe we completed this full bull structure this is a full bearish correction against it and the fact that we took out 1939-20 suggests to me that there's a good likelihood that this we could be seeing a macro-polish maybe out of here perhaps even to the tune of this this kind of size so we're a little early to tell but and did you want to take a look at the SMB oh absolutely that's always a fun one yes okay so on an overall basis I caution that we held exhaustion up here at 46 35 and a quarter we held that with the 46 50 high and rolled over 284.5 points and that is a hold then I said the trade above 44 13 now warrants renewed strength we'd seen 125 25 of that and a little bit more today and then the trade above 44 66 75 projects this upward 98 minimum we'd seen 72.5 oh that this morning and then just a little bit more also and that was the break above we had originally held exhaustion down here then broke above this formation heads that with the break down below here and then we got back above this line we got bullish here bullish here and it's still trucking to the upside if we take out this line on the upside right here which comes in around 45 52 and a half that's going to want to run probably for the highs for these highs which would be 46 34 50 and if we fail back down through this line let me just give you some numbers here that line comes in at 44 55 26 we failed below that decently 44 55 26 that's minus 23 per hour if we fail below that decently then that's going to warrant a decent pressure probably knock the market right back down to test these lows did you want to see Bitcoin yes sir we had a question about that so I'm glad you brought it up let's do Bitcoin so Bitcoin just as a little recap I'd said failure below 31 655 would warrant pressure we saw 6,070 of that and I said I warned that this was a bearish correction the minimum target would be 25 710 if you recall in past shows when we were trading up in here I said that the 25 710 this target right here is what we were looking for when we talked to past shows and we got right down there and we also held this macro exhaustion level we held it once year a second time here a third time here multiple times before popping up but we could not quite get a decent penetration above this line now we've rolled over if we get a decent penetration back above that line then that's going to open up the upside to higher trade again and that line is going to come in at well it's been incredibly volatile these last couple of days hasn't it incredible volatility in Bitcoin in the last couple of days yeah absolutely that's why sometimes just so you know if the viewers may be interested when I do an analysis like this you know people might be wondering like wow why does he have suggestions around all these far away numbers that are nowhere near settlement and that's because 70% of your days are going to stay within 180 but on those other 30% of the days when the market moves really hard you don't want to be sitting there with no numbers from your analysts to trade off I see so there's a lot of extra work that's done every day that is not necessarily used but needs to be there in order to keep you on top of the market even in hard moves Mike I'd like to work a little closer with you in the next couple starting next week maybe one or two days maybe take a few minutes to show me one of these charts like I'd like to say I'm Barry Sean Crude, I'm bullish on Crude or Heating Oil and then you show me the spread that might be even better would you do that sure because when you tell me these numbers these are monster numbers you get a $6,000 move in Crude and you get $18,000 move in something else and that interests me I know people have made a fortune trading spreads I never have done it but I do know how to read a chart so I think if I can practice a little bit I think I can get pretty good at it tell the folks how you can reach us again and we're going to have you on again next week how about Thursday next week do you want to be able to do that sure that sounds great and by the way just I don't necessarily go over at every show but in my analysis down below I have each of these spreads with significant calls and each of them that people can take advantage of so it's a lot more than just the outright that's what I'd like to see this is great so tell the folks how to reach it Mike oh yeah more analytics M is in Mary O O R analytics there's no E at the end of more it's just more analytics.com alright buddy we'll see you next Thursday okay that will be the 7th of September thank you sir thank you Mike if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then Rocket Equities and Options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for Rocket Equities and Options report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN Educating Investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right? like any endeavor in life before you 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community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV okay folks we're going to Mike are you still there by any chance I thought he was hang up but we'll have Mike on next Thursday having a pretty volatile day across the board here down down quite a bit Nasdaq is still up S&P still up Russell's down so having some good move everywhere gold sold off a little bit so we're going to find out next support and the gold should be coming in here over the weekend I would be would be my wildest gas but we'll have to have to wait and see what happens folks tomorrow we will have Joe Denapoli of Denapoli levels he's been working on Fibonacci stuff just about as long as I have we're going back to 1970 when John Hilt showed me gave me my first proportional divider and I went and I showed Joe what it was and we went over to the UCLA bookstore and he bought everyone that was in stock and he started teaching and my golly's done a great job with it so he's got some different ramifications of what we do but it's basically gets down to numbers and cycles and Fibonacci and patterns and that's what we're trying to do here is to find the ones that work the best so Joe will be our guest I know he's politically motivated but he is not going to be talking about any politics are you going to hear this quick little click on the buzzing sound as he moves into the sunset because we don't want to have anything to do with the political stuff I know I said this thing about the guy in Spain they got blackballed by the lady that he happened to give the kiss to but you know that that's really a sad situation yes Johnny I'll shut up anyway Joe Denapoli will be our guest tomorrow and that we have some real exciting things because we've had a tremendous week and with this big cycle day that we have coming in here today with this double full moon also known as the blue moon and we'll see what's going to happen we also have a super moon because it's perigee the moon is as close to the earth and remember Pythagoras knew this in 663 BC he knew apigee and perigee of the moon and the earth and the distance between the earth and the moon let's take a break till tomorrow and we'll see you on the flip side and may god bless


Hello and welcome to yet another conversation of Dreamers and Unicorns and this as you know that we talk to lots of really interesting people and today I have a person who is an investor, he's an author, he's been you know a person who's helped many companies scale up and there are lots of things that we are going to talk to him about but there is one thing that really intrigued me and you know most of the times when I think of choosing a guest for the show there's got to be something that really I want to figure out during this conversation so I really don't have much of a scripted version of it, we kind of really have a broad view but let me not spoil everything by explaining it. So let me just say that I'm delighted to welcome David Kidder, hey David welcome, welcome to the show and David is the CEO of Bionic, welcome. Well very grateful to be here, grateful to see you again and looking forward to the conversation together, it'll be fun. So explain to me what Bionic does and why do you call it Bionic, what's the story behind the name? You know it's funny my last company where I spent a lot of time just kind of selling the dream so to speak I used to say like our software product made you Bionic, better stronger and faster than you were but Bionic is an idea, it's like an exoskeleton, you know we're around you but it's still you, we're here to help grow you, it's still you, so that those skills, the people, the talent to actually ignite a growth revolution which is our purpose is ultimately making you and your company stronger better than it probably could imagine so I love the idea of Bionic, it's a great idea, it's a great concept, it's a great name. So David when you started to talk about your own journey, you know you've done many different things, I want to just really explore the motivations that have shaped you, you know kind of things that you cared about and what got you interested in growth of organizations and you know eventually I want to go and talk about this thing which intrigued me which is the growth operating system so I'm going to talk about that but let me hear your backstory, what shaped you, what were those experiences? You know I've been, I think of my entrepreneurship job as a career right, it's a skill to get good at and there's some aspects of it that I'm good at and some not so good at and so over the years my fourth company as a founder and I'm a co-founder of this company with Ann Berkwich, my amazing co-founder of Bionic since now, I guess for almost eight years old, it's a you know 60 person $25 million service company, we think ourselves as a product-enabled service company, we'll get into this but so though my last three companies were all venture-backed SaaS service companies, you know three exits, two worked, one didn't but you know it was a great journey of learning, you know I love the idea of less about getting to what you want or the top of the mountain because you discover there's nothing there when you get to the top and more about who you're becoming and so I just love the journey, the grind of letting these experiences shape you and grow and you know companies are basically reflections of the founder's journey in a lot of ways, they're there to teach you and you keep repeating the lessons until you learn how to solve them successfully and so I like that the gritty, the feel of growth actually in the job and business of growth now at Bionic, so it's I've had a great journey, been a very active angel investor about 45 investments and also three LPs and different funds over the last 15 years and love being on the other side of the table, just helping entrepreneurs work through the personal journey of doing this work because it's not easy, it's a really tough thing to do for a long period of time to get to the outcome you're driving to. So are you one of the investors who's very hands-on or are you a person who sort of writes the check and says I'll see when it grows to a substantial amount? Well there's two aspects of angel investing or seed stage investing that you need to know, one is in both the seed round and the A round almost 60% of the reason why you invest in the company is the founders, is the team that's the proprietary gift of the talent. The second thing is that you actually have to do a lot of investments to get portfolio returns, typically 30 or 40, about about seven to 10% are truly almost all of the unbounded returns, so if you're not comfortable for a long period of time, like a decade of getting to any returns and a lot of the failure comes fast and upfront, you're really in a relationship with those entrepreneurs for a long period of time and I think a lot of times you know I'll have invested and backed a talented entrepreneur you know twice, three times before they had their exit and we had success together, so I just love being in the personal leadership journey with those founders as they grow, as they discover who they're becoming, what their giftedness is, but more importantly is really solving a need in the world that they were born to do, that to me is the most important part of this journey. So in some sense what you're saying is that there are two parallel tracks, there is the track of the founder going through their own journey of discovering themselves and then parallel that plays out in the organization or the startup which they are sort of working on and at some point of time I think they merge, is that how it happens? Yeah I think of, here's three kind of framers to think about, the first job of a founder, this comes from Fred Wilson who is one of my investors in one of my companies, he says the job of a founder is three things, number one is your vision right, you have to be kind of right in on time within three to five years because when you ask an entrepreneur to what degree was good timing and fortune you know a big part of your success, they're like 80% right, it's being there when it happens, you predict the future and you weren't dead when it actually happened, so that's really about outside forces and your timing, so you gotta be very good on where that will, when that will happen but in the year you're in, you kind of have to be right in on time quarter to quarter within those sort of 12 month window and the reason why is because you're deploying capital and resources, so too much capital means you'll be dead before it happens and too little means you'll be too late, so that timing is really difficult to get right, second is talent, you gotta put the right people in the right seats at the right time, people that deploy that money and actually solve the need, whether it be product or services, even one mistake of your hiring in the first sort of zero to 20 employees can be fatal because by the time you get them in the seats you hire them then if they fail you replace them, it's almost lights out by the time you get the right person at the right seat, that's a year your life, that can be your entire funny round, so talent is the second thing, the third thing is never run out of money and there's only two ways, one is to raise it or earn it and in a way they almost take the same energy, so knowing what type of businesses you are you're building is really important to have them at capital, what you're doing. This next part, these other two elements are really critical that when you're building as a founder there's actually two jobs, there's building the company and building the business, so the company and business are actually different things, they're doing the same job, the company creates the business that solves the need, but the job of building those things as a founder is actually two discrete pieces of work, your culture, the systems, the mindset, the belief, the doctrine that it makes decisions, it leads the people, the hearts and minds to go solve that need which becomes the business, from code to strategy and deploying capital for those decisions, but I think of them as separate things, knitted together that ultimately win a space and you have to take very intentional effort and work and mindset to go with those things right. So in your career you've done many of these, so you've done it many times over, which of these three is the toughest for you personally and then we'll talk about the general version, what do you find the toughest and why? Well I mean cultures, you know cultures are overused, we're in, it's great, I think it's really, I think as this system really, we have a thing called the Bionic Playbook which describes what are the tools that our culture is created, what so our playbook creates the culture, so in a way you have to look at it as like if you don't like what's coming out of your business, the company, having to treat people or how well it's working or its beliefs it's, you can't really look at the individual, although that's an important thing to look through, if you've hired well, you got to look at the system right, you got to fix the way the company leads itself, the way it treats others, treats customers, what it believes, what it's obsessed with and tweak those things, optimize those things so that the outcome you're getting is improving all the time, because it's going to take a long time, there's never a state where it's never going to be finished, but you want a healing, optimizing system that creates a culture that builds the company, and as a result of that, the work that gets done of building the business, right, how it solves the need, how it services that need, how what tools and functions create this product or the service that lead to that outcome are really outcomes of building a team in a culture that's cohesive systematically, so I really focus on systems and less on the person when it fails and I take responsibility for making sure that the the culture is actually producing the right outcome as a way of measuring our success. Okay so you've got a viewer question already and so this is of course also an invitation to all those who've joined in, you know, feel free to ask all the questions while you know we keep talking for every interesting question that you found there, I'm going to bring it up and throw it out to David and it's good, he has to respond to these, so there's Preeti from Los Angeles, she says, can you please ask him, does he also invest in capacity building for enterprises? I guess the follow-up, I guess the question is what is capacity, human capacity, there's mindsets, there's systems, there's resources, you know, ultimately for CEOs, we you know, we have a company by now that works with you know, CEOs of large enterprises who have to go through transformations, you know, their big to bigger is really the business, the core business solves a total addressable market in the world today that's often being disrupted, so the needs and behaviors of customers are changing and so if they can't adapt, they can't grow, that means they can't really discover because when disruption happens the planning model of big to bigger fails, it can't learn fast enough, it can't break its biases to actually solve the need as it's changed, so the ability to discover what Bionic does is its belief is that venture capital entrepreneurship or forms of management, in the same way an MBA administrates the big to bigger, that discovery job at new zero to 100 million revenue is really a job of mindset and systems of portfolios around customer problems and needs and not markets and so the idea of capacity, the question that you're asking is really one of resourcing, how much resource actually goes into discovery versus capturing or planning as a business and the reason why it has to be a dynamic decision environment is because when a rate of change outside exceeds the rate of learning on the inside, it creates an asymmetry and that asymmetry actually accelerates disruption because you literally are trying to make what you have work and and and resourcing to create loss of versions, you know it's sub cost biases, these things reinforce bad decision making when actual change is happening in the world, so to your point, capacity to me is both mindset and resources that are in the position to discover new growth, most companies are wildly under invested in these places because they think of this as innovation, I rarely use the word innovation because there's so much brain damage around it, innovations is sort of like an everyday idea as an activation as a it's almost like a toy instead of a company, growth is about an urgent model so the same way we have Six Sigma and Lee manufacturing TQM as ways to manage the efficiency, you need an operating system that's designed for growth, you need to bring the pieces together, you know how you invest, how you take strategy and build portfolios, how do we build special forces for growth, how do we get you know we have a navy, where are special forces, are they skilled, can we actually grow things, do we have a funding model that can go from zero to a hundred million, can we go through the zygote to ugly teenage years of investing of hard things that take time and lastly is can we go fast, can we operate at speed, can we get things to market in 90 days that are born to die, the reason why this is so important that integrated system of growth, that growth operating system, that's the capacity, do we have a capacity growth, is it funded, is it has the mindset, the people that actually do this as an always-on skill just like we have for efficiency and most companies today don't have that and what we've pioneered at Bionic is like the anti-6 sigma of this generation, the anti-McKinsey of this generation, it's a really powerful team and tool and model that can be replicated in large organizations but it's a great question, more than you want it as an answer but hopefully it brings some color around what we do. Yeah we have so that sort of has triggered another question from Niranjan who wants to know that you know when you talk about growth, is it just customer loyalty that drives growth or is it a combination of other factors? If you had to add a little more nuance to it, what would you say? Well it's interesting because customer loyalty is trust, there's a vulnerability that says I'm with you in this journey and so that's actually a very powerful tool because the challenge in disruption is that customers don't know. So you can't go to classic big-to- bigger market skills, your agency and do a survey when they don't know, right? That's classic marketing, that's like go capture the market and the budget and the behavior that exists. That total addressable marketplace thinking is actually the problem because it's not about the market, it's about the need in the world, it's a customer problem needs so when you reframe that, not five big bets of zero sum outcomes but 50 non-zero learning the new behavior so we can solve it and capture it and go back to the organization and say what do we have? What are our proprietary gifts to solve this need in the world as it's changing? Loyalty will teach us in their behaviors because you're doing it with them, not for them, not inside out, not invention is such a problem. So I love the idea of loyalty but it's actually only in their behaviors that will teach us where they're going because they can't tell us because they don't know. So how we work, how we experiment with them is all the tease out can we find the new behavior and the God metric to scale into that that captures that behavior, monetizes it and solves it with them as opposed to for them. Brilliant. I'm going to sort of, you know, do a little bit of a reset of the place and so today we are talking to David Kidder who's the CEO of Bionic and you know if you don't follow him on Twitter I really recommend that you join him on social media and he sort of has this really, really, you know, interesting idea about what drives growth and he sort of describes it as an operating system which is what I got intrigued by and so that's what we are going to talk to him about. So if you have any questions do leave your questions in the box and then you know I'm going to put it up periodically and have David to answer that. So with that David I'm going to shift gears and say if you have to do a big picture explanation of what is a growth operating system and then we'll get into the nitty gritty in a little bit but just explain to somebody who doesn't understand anything so what is a growth operating system? A growth operating system describes the model, talent and capacity for always on growth. It's bringing together the collection of critical skills as a way to manage growth on a day-to-day quarter-quarter basis that most companies can't do or don't do. So in the same way they have systems to manage the optimization and efficiency and planning of organizations, they have blueprint planning, they have lead manufacturing of six sigma, they have tools they manage that measure the efficiency. There is not one that exists to lead and manage growth in most organizations. They call innovation, right? They launch a hundred things, a hundred things get launched, we have a lot of activity, a lot of ideas and they never die and the CFO and COS flip out because they have a hundred things they'll never die and everyone's making their idea work. The whole company gets excited and then intellectually dishonest because they have to be.   They're going to make it work and the problem with that is that you don't understand is that the only thing that matters is the obsession with the need, the complete permission to solve it and whatever is the right idea in the answer, not making the one you have to work. So getting this right in mindset and systems helps the organization think, invest differently and work differently systematically to have always on growth. And Bionic has proven this at scale, literally at scale over the last eight years now with some of the biggest companies in the world, P&G, General Mills, Nike, Citigroup and others who've just been incredible and really building and layering in a model that they help lead the organization to create always on growth. And so I'd say this which is 30 years ago when you're like, we really need an ERP system to help manage back office, front office, efficiency. How can we take this local product and make it global? They can do that in their sleep today. You can operate at will today because these tools. The question is, why can't we grow at will today? That's a powerful provocative idea which is how can we can't turn on growth when we want growth? Why do we have to wait for it and cross our fingers and maybe it will happen and do all these crazy things that make us why is that at a permanent capabilities organization that's a pipeline that we're stacking every year in the same way we're taking cost out, we're bringing revenue in. That is the provocative idea and solution that we've been solving successfully now for eight years that's going mainstream. So that's what Viac does and that's really what an operating system is. I use it as a bit of a mind game. It's a bit of a trick because it's really not an operating system in the software system. It's about integrating an operating system and it's a thing that actually it has to, it propagates the CEO to think like, wait, I actually have an operating system for efficiency. It has these tools in it. I run the company with operating system and but I don't have one for growth. So it really creates this this new debate versus big to bigger mindset shift that says, I'm missing this capability to bring in the organization that is the organ that creates the blood flow that creates the growth that's always on it. It's not an activity. It's not an initiative. It's an integrated capability in the way I believe the company and so that's what we do. So is it reasonable to say that the growth operating system is the equivalent of when you have a build versus build versus buy or so there are polarities. What is the polarity of growth? Yeah, let me, I'll try to frame this. I think what you, what I'm, you could think of maybe as the growth OS is the is the anti-six sigma. You have six efficiency, you have, you need the opposite of that for growth, right? It's a system. So what you're asking is how is growth produced? The reality is for most of our partners is when you get into a portfolio around a new customer need, how you achieve that, how you successfully achieve that, you may often discover while we have a proprietary gift as a company but we are missing a proprietary gift and that is really where the organic question comes in. So the question of like, do we acquire this growth or do we build it organically? Build buy and partners those quit, build buy and partners with those four choices but you can actually go in and make a determination very early about do we have this giftedness? Do we need to bring it in? Can we accelerate the future? So if you can get there to that need fast enough, a model innovation where you have a proprietary gift and someone solved that technologically speaking, you could just acquire that and tuck it in and grow and scale it. Maybe, and so those are the strategic decisions about how you win the need in the world. The permission is very wide. It's no longer a question of like, we must acquire this or we must grow organically or we're good or bad either way. It really ends the sort of internal psychological war about what we have to have to be able to win a space and it really comes down to giftedness. You know, two mediocre companies don't make a great company. You can't smash together two incrementally bad companies. So you really, when you find two proprietary gifts, solving a need in the world where that one plus one equals three or 10, that's when you acquire. If you don't need that tool because you have it inside of you, you release it to the world. So those answers to organic versus inorganic become very clear throughout the pipeline as the commercial truth is in the room. I'll just say this, we get to jump to those next questions, which is, I have a lot of CEOs either after I do a keynote or in the process of this work, they realize, oh my god, my company doesn't tell me the truth. And whenever I hear that or it happens often, it's like, yeah, it doesn't tell you the truth and that's on you, right? It's not a criticism.  And so that's a terrible place to be in. So the only way to get into truth in the room is to lower the cost of failure. So these people can speak and tell the truth based on the science of validation to a CEO whose job it is, is to create unfair advantage for them, but not subordinate so they demand a truth that's not true, which has failed a lot of large organizations, but to create a partnership where those people are together solving the need in the world. And so I think that we replicate that same environment. It's a huge alleviating factor for companies getting trust in the room, going in offense, feeling the courage to really lean into this work is really about truth. And I love that respect of our work. So, you know, there are lots more questions which have come up and just there's a quick one. Karthik wants to know that, you know, when you think about predictable revenue, is that, you know, even doable? How does one manage to build predictability? And I would sort of ask a follow-up bit on that, that if the moment you get it predictable, does it mean that you've sort of not in some sense leveraged the opportunity? Because if I know that it's going to be at five and you hit five, how do I know it couldn't have been 10? Yeah, I mean, it's a really, it's a complex question he's asking. So it's a good question, but there's, let me answer one, the second kind of a second part first, which is predictable revenue is comes in waves, right? So revenue can be predictable when you understand the need and the sort of behavior and budget, so to speak, that's allocated to that need and that problem in the world. And I would say that, you know, predictable revenue, I just one lens, I wrote this book called The Startup Playbook, which is, I interviewed like 40 of the best entrepreneurs in the world, Elon and Reid Hoff and others, and they talked about how to bet your life on an idea. But when it, when your revenue grows forever, basically in linear, you've discovered you need in the world, it means you've actually created a pain killer and not a vitamin, right? You solve the chronic life on malignant pain in the world that people will always, once they turn it on, they'll never stop doing it. And they often didn't even know they need it. So the nuance between this is, I actually think there are predictable revenue streams in the world, but they're typically reframing the problem or need, right? And so what you're describing is the other dimension, which is that tam to tap problem. Oh my God, the total-aggressible marketplace for, you know, let's say hair loss products, right? Like, I want to grow my receding hairline back. I want to get my hair back. It's one billion, right? Small marketplace over the counter drugs can solve it because I'm willing to put chemistry in my head to get my hair back, right? But the marketplace for keeping the hair I have, just preserving it is actually 50 times bigger because just slow it down. So I don't need to grow. I just want to keep, I'm going to slow down. Like that's an example of a total-aggressible need in the world that's orders of magnitude bigger than the actual person who would actually pay money to get it back. That's a gestalt. Many marketplaces are like that. And when you move from what's the actual custom problem and you listen and you solve it as opposed to making your software, making, making your chemical work, making your product inside out, with a magical powder that can grow your hair back, we're going to sell this, you're missing the need. So it's a simple idea. It's actually quite profound. So permanent revenue growth lives when we can discover that painkiller that is very often just beyond the marketplace that exists that leads an unlimited problem that happens and understanding it through a lens that most people understand. We had taxis. We have Uber. We had the, we had people who could deliver things. We now have accessibility in marketplaces. So we're really searching for marketplaces that have unlimited demand. So when you're investing these companies, there's supply and demand. So you always want to asymmetrically invest in something that has unlimited new demand. And you can solve for as opposed to like, we can create a lot of supply. Supply-based companies are really technology-driven or we can make it as opposed to we've tapped the demand. You want to search for that thing that people haven't seen because of the lenses they view the world through. And that's really what you're going after. I think that's underneath the question, the one you've sort of brought to mention too. So a lot of people say that, you know, when you look at what COVID has done is this accelerated a lot of trends. Some people say it's disrupted the world and some people talk about the opportunities in different sectors like telehealth or education and all of that. Do you believe that the post pandemic world is fundamentally different or is it an accelerated version of the old stuff? What is your view? Well, I mean, certainly there's a lot of aspects of should versus must going on in organizations about accelerating digital change. I mean, I think there's some aspects of the business that will never change. We'll never go back because they've realized that we can work differently, much more efficiently at a much lower cost basis. That's really under when you look at the margin growth of companies who successfully navigated this moment and they're like, whether it be real estate or systems or distributed or whatever it is, they're learning like, oh my god, I don't need to travel two thirds of the time and spend that money. There's so many things we needed to do because we had to be there or do things that actually weren't true or they're enabled in ways now that you actually have the same, you have a good enough outcome with a powerful result that you won't spend money on in the future. That's changed our digital architecture, what we've accelerated, what we're abandoning. This is a bias crushing moment about what we believe to be true. There's some things that will be permanent as a result of that. But there's also new needs and habits that are formed where we were buying vitamins, but we actually were buying painkillers. We didn't know it. So like home delivery food services, the before and after of Blue Apron was that model alone was probably a fatal path that now became successful because they had enough time and money and demand to say, I'm not going to go to a restaurant really for a year, but I need high quality food in my home. Someone needs just to do it for me because the mental bandwidth to like cook, clean, manage my house, it was a huge painkiller. Before it was a vitamin, it was just a hobby to do that. What a nice experience you could cook yourself. While it turns out it's a permanent habit. So things like that create new habit, once you get beyond 69, 70 days of things, those needs are not going away. They are going to become permanent new line items in your life. There's this great app called True Bill. I encourage you to download it because what it does is it reveals the role of subscriptions in your life. So here's my challenge to the audience, which is download True Bill, connect it to your credit card and your bank accounts, and let it do its work because it's going to tell you how many subscriptions you're actually paying for in a monthly basis in your life. What you're going to discover it's going to be shocking.  And so these enabling functions in our life that we're paying for that we were not discreetly going and buying up a shelf, but we've activated and turned on. That is where permanent revenue lives and they become habits. They have taken over the habits of our life and it's a new behavior that we're willing to outsource the jobs to be done for a money time and energy that we never needed before, but they've actually been on for a long time and they're on today. So I encourage you to do it because it's a great revelation of what permanent revenue looks like and new needs, and it shows you that gestalt that just beyond that check is the actual need type of insight. Yeah, you know that's an interesting model that there are so many and this whole subscription economy that's coming up, you know, which is you know the newsletters, the podcasts and a whole lot of people are putting things behind paywalls. So at one level as a creator you want the subscription. As a consumer you want to be more selective. So that's an inherent polarity that I guess which is going to be there. So guys just to reset the room, you know I'm talking to David Kidder who's a CEO of Bionic and I'm going to talk to him about the five elements that make up his growth operating system. So talk to me about the five elements and then there are questions which are there and I'm going to sort of bring them up as well. All right, so what does a growth operating system encompass? So every company has versions of this and they're typically scattered where there are toy quite frankly. So the first and most important element, the linchpin is what we call the growth board. That is the investment body with a growth mindset. The guns and badges of leadership can invest in portfolios in the total addressable problems or customer needs in the world. So they're no longer looking for what we have today, they're investing in the need in the world. So it's no longer the five big bets that some expensive consulting firm told us to make and never die. It's we're going to launch a large volume of bets that most of it will die because what the mindset of the leader has learned in our companies is basically this these two startling insights. Number one is that 70% of all the growth you ever get, all the billions of unbounded return come from 7% of capital deployed. So if I invest 100 million, 7 million are all the return or 93 million or 93 of the ideas are going to go to zero. And the question is, why? Why did that happen? Or more importantly, how do we just invest in the 7 of 100 work? And the answer to that question is you can't because the 93 teach you the 7. And this is important to recognize the faster and cheaper we get to the 93 failures to get us the 7. And I'll care if it's 1 out of 10, the numbers don't matter. It's the mindset about what you're looking for. Because we have to go back and say well why did we invest in them? So when you go back to the beginning and say well why did we invest in those 7, there are two investment signals in the early stages. The first one is high conviction. And what that describes is a deep understanding, a proprietary gift of why us and why now. What is the outside force that we do not control that's making this happen and what's our proprietary gift? That's a signal. The second signal is disagreement rates. We make all of our money from the ideas with the highest disagreement rates. So it's really about non-consensus investing. So when we have consensus, we're basically screwed. Because we're planning, like that's not discovery. It's the very nature of us planning means we're consensus around this is a good idea. And when we think it's a good idea, that means that we haven't learned anything new and nothing we haven't brought in new to the world. We're not learning, we're reinforcing. So once a leadership team, that growth board, can understand how we reframe a large volume that's with a high degree of failure non-consensus, high conviction, non-conviction decision making, they become better investors because they create the permission to learn. That's the first job. They had to have a growth mindset and they got to become great growth investors. So the other components are discover, validate and build. Discover is how do we take the super expensive, you know, beautiful mind strategy we bought from expensive consulting firm and make it the right portfolios. How do we reframe there in the total addressable problems in the world and then do the generation of the solutions to that problem. So we start with the right 20 or 30 or 50 so that we can begin the investment journey so we can validate them. That's the third component. We need special forces for growth. Who can move fast, tell the truth, lower the cost of failure, run the experiments to get out of the out of the dark alleys and into the light so we know what we should build, which is the third element, which is we got to learn to invest across a stage of adventure. They replace classic tollgate financing inside of a company with venture so teams can sell the dream and unsell the dream moving back and forth across the stage of seed ABC rounds. Those rounds are like raising children, right? Zag it to five-year-old, five-year-old to 10-year-old, 10-year-olds to ugly teenagers. Each one of those stages is a different set of questions and a different set of metrics. You're learning about signals that become indicators that become metrics. They mature. So the beginning, we're just looking for signals. So we can't ask a five-year-old kid, well, how fast can you grow? Right? Which is like, what's your rate of return? What's your margin? That's an impossible thing to know because you don't know what the right revenue is. You're learning.  You're about, you're trying to win a new need, which is can we understand the need? Do we understand the 20 or 30 signals that become a habit so that as I get to an a-round that product to market fit, I know that of the 20 signals, I know the one metric that drives the whole business or the small cocktail or two or three metrics that drive the whole business because none of else matters. If we get those right, that God metric and drive it to the unlimited demand, we're going to get a billion to our company on this, right? So what's more important in this, is it the signal or is it the metric which helps me to understand whether that signal is really the right one? It's what happens over time. A signal is a behavior, a habit loop that becomes an indicator because there's been a lot of signals. Do versus say, we want to do, that becomes an indicator. So you'll go from 50 signals to 10 indicators in the A and B round, of which only one or two of those indicators drive the whole business. So we can't do this whole business. A lot of these leadership, they want every answer because they're derisking it because they want consensus and safety. No, we want top line growth on an unbounded return. So we want to find out what that God metric is that drives the whole business and then we can scale that because we know what we're investing in because that indicator is going to become a core metric to the business. And once it starts to peak, we then can start working through the rest of the metrics to improve them for scalability. So that journey is what venture capitalists do. C-Day BC rounds is a funding model that is replacing the Tolgate model on big businesses. Big enterprises today use a Tolgate model that they make a plan and then they fund the plan. They haven't even asked the question and is this commercially true? So they spent a lot of money launching a zombie idea and then no one buys it or they don't buy it repeatedly which they could have known upfront in the funnel years ago or months ago for a small amount of money because there's no habit, there's no behavior long before. And then they use it as a funny model where they commingle commercialization in the process. So what do you think the probability after a CEO invests 10, 50, 100 million dollars in a plan that that team is going to come back and say well we hired our agency and the agency said it's a great idea or more importantly your baby is ugly. It's never going to happen. And then we put Agile on top of it. We're going to be Agile all the way over the cliff. Agile is really important, very important at the stages when you know it's commercially true. Then we leverage that not before. So when you use these tools, how you fund it, when you fundamentally change this you actually can go in and confidence and scale things because you know what are the stages of growth that are through a totally different mindset and lenses that we are using when we're discovering and capturing new needs in the world. Does that make sense? It does. And when you when you think about it then the question I would have is you know are startups going to be the beneficiaries of a growth operating system or is it going to be the incumbents? You know those who have grown to a certain size and now sort of faltering or you know they are in a stalemate kind of a scenario. So who is really the person when you build the company who are you building it for? Yeah, I was building it for for big enterprises. This is I mean startups do this. This is their job. This is what a founder's job is to do is to build a culture and a business that does this as a way of working. I mean there's there's so much I mean I've contributed my own book into the space. There's there's so much so many great books out there about learning how to become a great co-founder which we never had growing up. I mean the amount of content in the world about how to build businesses and niches is everywhere. If you can't start a company and get some traction with the tools that exist today you probably should be joining one. You don't have to be a founder like you can be a great co-founder. You can be you can be a great number two. You know you know you know founding in a company is is really difficult and massively risky and most often fails. And it fails not because you you're not good at what you do it's because it's an outside force. You're not there when it happens or what you have what happened wasn't true right. You believe your idea as opposed to the need in the world. So getting all these newest things right makes the job really hard. But the idea of an operating system to your to your question is is really not who should know what who can and can't do this. It's more about returning a refounding moment to a large organization getting back to the capability in the mindset that really began. It's if you listen to Jeff Bezos's letters on last you know 25 years he has an idea called the day one mindset which is it you know the first day in a company is the greatest energy permission joy etc. That's something that he recommits the whole company to all the time because he wants them to have a mindset that it's possible can do and they can be an offense as a permanent way of thinking not protection not playing not to lose playing to win and they take bets bold they're obsessed with the needs of the world they they follow outside forces and if you're a CEO and you're not say you know are we doing that most organizations have eradicated that because they're focused on the quarter which is important I get that but they have no chance to win the future until they bring these systems and mindsets back to create the permission and the truth as an everyday job not a not an initiative an everyday job that's what ambidextrous leadership is the ability to operate and create and every new see in the world in the world is going to have to have that skill so would the role of the founder or co-founders you know when you look at depending on the number of people what is the number one job or does it change there is no number one job which is is it to find the product market fit is it to raise capital is it to you know motivate the employees is it to keep an year on the ground is it to pivot quickly enough is it to make sure that there's enough cash I mean what would be your priority list you know how would you sort of do a priority ABC what are those I mean those they change over time I mean they so this is why the job is hard because you have to set the priorities they're very dynamic over time I would say that the absolute number one thing for me is is you you got to build a product that wins whether it be a service or not you got to build truly a one of one product in the world so you know the question is is well who is going to build that product so can I attract the talent can I build the culture that can make them thrive because if this is truly a talent arms race because they're the ones who can solve these so if you're looking for the signal you know have I built a great company it's because I have a great product right that's truly one of one in the world and you know one of my great investors was the founders fund they always said competition is for losers right you know don't chase press releases don't chase features solve the need build a one of one company call the marketplace into you don't chase the marketplace don't chase your competitors it's an arm it's a it's a arms race to the bottom so I think if I were to pick one thing it would probably be that the company is obsessed with the need and their focus is doing a product that solves it that's truly one of one of the world that product question service or technology otherwise is really the is the number one thing and then you build the organization that because and but the nuance what I'm trying to say is is that the culture company is not obsessed with making their idea work they're obsessed with solve the need of which their product is the evidence that that's actually true so that's why I would make that number one number two is talent right you know getting it right and number three is is has the ability to either generate its own oxygen i.e revenue or you have a stable of really solid believers who have the capital to enable you to capture the new net solve that new need in the world indefinitely quite frankly you know when you look at the books that have shaped you as an entrepreneur as a writer you know what are some of those two or three books that you think are really supremely useful and impactful um I mean the the uh Steve blanks the four step steps the epiphany changed my life I mean that that book is is the most important book I've ever read in business I haven't I would tell me again the name it's Steve blanks the four steps the epiphany to the epiphany um he wrote it he was teaching Berkeley or Stanford it was Berkeley actually that was his like interclass book and and so much has come out of that book lean start has come out of others but um but it's his thinking in that model that really worked but I would say maybe it's a tie but the other ones that I think the other two that are you must read and it's the bag of the two best non-instructional books are Ben Horowitz's books the hard things but the hard things oh yeah and what you mean who you are they are far and away the greatest like truth of founder led journeys and who you have to become to do this job all that you could ever buy and as a small plug if you're looking for just really good advice the the book we wrote 10 years ago the star playbook it's like it's the best advice on like the top three lenses that Elon Sarah Blakely Robin Chase that that book is basically like a toolkit A and B role of just great wisdom um of how to actually do the job like I wrote the book because it's like um it's like a gut test like when you when you're testing your gut like am I making the right decision going in there and opened up like if there's a whole section like hiring and firing and funding managing your board and managing yourself and how to deal with failure you can read 20 quotes from Elon and always have people and be like okay I'm not crazy or that makes no sense to me if it doesn't make sense to you you're probably like oh I'm drawing from the right the wrong biome of my experience so I use that as a tool even today to see like am I really understanding this with a dimension and making a good decision so that's a great toolkit but those three books the Four Steps to Epiphany and both of Ben's books I think are the greatest startup business books of all time yeah so so you're talking about the Four Step Epiphany and then you're talking about the hard thing about hard things by Ben Horowitz and also by him the more recent one he's written about culture so that's also another great one yeah I just you know heard him on this podcast which he does A16Z Live where he answers something called what's called the boss questions you know so how do you take those decisions which I think is a really very very good podcast I would sort of look at that the other one that you know the other one that I would sort of really think which I really like there's Peter Teal's book where he defines zero to one you know which I really thought was an interesting idea where how do you think about something as a you know it's a more of the same or it's a truly original idea do you think more startups succeed because they are you know truly original one in that category or is it that you don't have to be the first one to the market but if you can improve the first one whichever is in the market and do something way better you're most successful which of the needs too I mean there there are just fewer of the one-of-one companies for sure but I think that when you look at I mean execution engineer execution evidence tool like those things I mean if you look at you know so zero to one is a is a fantastic book of course Peter's literally a genius and have you spent spent time with him we I described those he has seven sort of lenses and the startup Playbook has five but they're very similar and they in the beginning you know you're you're looking through lenses in your mindset of deploying your time, energy and capital so the question is is what are you investing that time, energy and capital in and the the the five lenses of the seven that that that are kind of outlined in zero to one are basically this the first one is is proprietary gift why you what is the thing you know about the world that no one else in the world knows and yet that's really the secrets and you never give your secrets away but you're always talking about that's why that competition is for losers why would I tell the world my secret the second is is you have extreme focus in a way optionality is the enemy the more things you do the weaker the company so getting focus on the need and how you're going to solve it is hugely critical concentrate your energy like a laser excuse me the third is the pain killers and not vitamins you got to build things that are solving chronic lifelong pain the last two lenses are about execution so the 10x factor I want to be able to have the company sit on the one thing that if I asymmetrically invest in it will be impossible to replicate and the fourth fifth lens is the idea of monopolies permanence how can I intentionally build permanent in the life of the customer so they can't leave those lenses become the way you think it deploy capital so how you think how zero to one of these books is really about the mindset of the leader how what they value what they deploy their energy through how they think like that role people over value activity and urgency and quite frankly fear zero some fear as opposed to non-zero understanding that's a huge psychological change for the company when they have a non-zero mindset because it's more so often there's more patient patients then they they're winning something else right they're not winning the dollar their competitors have they're winning the need in the world that the behavior is going to and that's that's hugely important to stand so whether you're building on top of a Russian rocket that you know SpaceX first bought you know and now is building their one engines and built like they knew that there's a progression over time we will eventually solve the who's going to build our engine but if we don't get a rocket that's reusable and can land that doesn't even matter so that's the timing I got to deploy the energy and timing if they were just about the technology they would have built the software the rocket from day one and they would have spent all their money as opposed to just getting the thing into orbit so that's the point is that how you think and how you deploy your capital as opposed to solving the need versus making your technology work is fatal and it's fatal fast so anyways I don't know if I answered your question I got off a ranch because I get excited about this but really hard to do the job well because if how much thinking matters and all of it what are you reading now you know on my I'm in Arizona and I'm speaking at a conference this morning actually right after this and so I'm in this room which is an ugly backdrop but I next to my bed is Adam Grant's new book called Think Again Adam is a a friend and advisers and our board advisers at Bionic a lot of what we do at Bionic is is a direct influence of how his research has led to basically how do you invest in non-consensus high conviction how do you do non-consensus investing is really a lot of his thought leadership but he's also just amazing human beings so I'm just starting that book which is great and I also have the new HBR which which actually has an article about 70 venture capitalists share their secrets of how they invest so I love that learning that we're doing my own understanding of it okay so that's something that I'm reading right now as well Adam Grant's book Think Again brilliant book I really like it I liked all his previous ones as well I'll say most of them I've liked except for Plan B which I didn't like that much but everything else I think I like a lot yeah he's awesome yeah and so thank you very very much David you know this is this is been really fascinating thank you so much for sharing your ideas sharing your reading list sharing your framework of looking at organizations that clearly something works because you know the biggest names the Fortune 250 are the ones which are working with you so it's a great thing you are on too thanks a lot for your time and so appreciate your sharing your wisdom with us very very very thank you goodbye bye thanks