The first picture, this picture is very interesting because if you're looking for the blue line, the blue line is the forecast the global GDP level we did in 2007. The red line is the forecast we did in 2008. So after financial crisis, we thought the global GDP would dip, but gradually go up like that, a little gap. This is for advanced economy. This is for the whole world. But this is the real global GDP level. You see the global GDP level today is a big drop and remain under the trend and go all the way forward. This is a big, big gap. We lost all those global GDPs in the past seven and eight years permanently. This is very important to understand. These crisis leave a much deeper, much bigger scar than everyone ever thought. This is for the whole world, even for emerging market. You will see they still pick it up, but still there's a gap. And in the advanced economy, the real concern is not only the gap is keep big and people keep wider. That means the growth still becomes slower. This is the real concern of a global GDP. And we permanently emphasize again, lost such a big chunk of real global GDP forever. So we operate the whole global economy in a lower level. I think that's the first very important concept. Because of that, all the country today is run under the potential output. So they have an output gap. But you see, all the advanced economy under the potential roughly 1.5%. Japan, Belgium, even US is still a little bit behind. Even in the advanced economy, China still 1% point under the potential. Do the whole world run under this potential? The output gap is still quite big. Why that? Why we have such a low potential growth? The few things quite interesting. Number one, investments is lower. You will see in the United States, the investments share to GDP compared with roughly, this is 14, this is 2007, you will see the US investments share in GDP, roughly 200% point lower. Investments are lower. In the Europe, the investments are much lower. Investments are only higher in China and in Brazil, in Russia, but in China, you know, the investments are way too high need to further adjust. Not only investment, the trade growth is much slower. This is the trade growth, this is GDP, global GDP growth rate. Trade growth is always stronger than global growth rates. This is 80, 89. In 90, particularly, trade growth is two times more. And in the year 2000, trade growth is much stronger. The first time, the trade growth is slower than global GDP growth. In the past 30 years, we never, ever observed that since it happened. The global trade growth is slower than global GDP growth. More than that, the really the issues confuse everyone. We're still looking for the reason. It's a global FDR is much lower. You will see the FDR 2000, 2007 and 2013, we see the global capture flow. But what surprised us is the real FDR in terms of share of global GDP is all global. Global FDR in terms of share of global GDP is a lower period by period today. Roughly global FDR in terms of share of GDP is 37% lower than year 2000. We lost 40% of FDR globally, which is a big impact for the global GDP and the global capital. Meanwhile, we see the huge global financial flow. The real capital flow actually slows dramatically. We're still looking for the reason. We're still don't know why the real capital flow were dropped in such a big way. If we're putting those together, you have a wake and the investments, you have a wake trade and you have a wake and FDI, obviously, growth will be weak. More than that. The real issues, we try to figure out what will be the potential growth for the next five years. You know, when we talk about the potential growth rates, basically, we talk about potential capital growth rates, we talk about potential labor growth rates, we talk about potential productivity growth rates. So this is the composition for the key issues. Since year 2000, the potential growth rate is pretty high in the advanced economy. It's in the emerging market. You will see deep quite a bit during the process periods, understand? But over in the next five years, we forecast the potential growth rates still much lower than the year 2000 to 2007. A little bit up from the advanced economy, in emerging market will continue low. The potential growth is a concept to measure the capacity, to measure the how much the system can grow. This is a very important concept. This is the base for the growth. Why then? We see the potential capital growth is weakening, which we show investments is lower. We see the labor surprise is weakening dramatically in the advanced economy because demographic change, because aging. And the particular key issue is the productivity growth today. Overall, all the world is weakening. The productivity growth is lower everywhere. In the advanced economy, in the US, in Europe, in the UK, in the emerging market, in China, in Brazil, in Russia, everywhere. So the key issue is how can we promote productivity growth? And you will see the productivity growth is lower. But still, if you're looking for the next five years, the potential growth is still heavily depends on the productivity growth. That's the real challenge for the next five years. The productivity growth has been slower. But for the next five years, the growth is still pending on the productivity growth. So the key challenge for the whole world is really how to boost this part of the growth, which is productivity growth, has become very important issue. And for the emerging market, there's a lot of people talk about that. We down revised the potential growth since the year 2000s. For the advanced economies, given the potential growth, we see we drop them roughly half percent of the point and compared with before the 2010. And also emerging market, the potential growth lost 1.5%. This is quite a big potential growth loss compared with the previous ones here, compared with this one you will see. And further, and this is emerging market except China. So China played a quite a big chunk in terms of the potential growth. The potential growth loss is a big issue. Because the emerging market lost quite a big potential growth rate. So this is the catch up. This is the emerging market growth rate, the advanced economy growth rate. So how much emerging market growth is stronger than the advanced economy? You will see this is roughly from 17 to year 2000, roughly around 1.5 to 2, really peaked. During the crisis time, emerging market growth picked up, now dropped down. So we expect to see the emerging market drop pass will slower go back to normal situations. Why emerging market slowed down? Really it's very simple. Because in the past 10 years, oil prices went high, now it's much lower. In the past few years, commodity prices went high, it's much lower. The full price is way high. So the commodity cycle is over. And you will see the trade value is much lower today. It's also from an advanced economy from emerging market as well. And also you see the interest rates lower very much during the crisis times and now it's going to pick them up. So external environments has really changed for the emerging market because the super commodity cycle is over because trade change is weaker and the easier financing, lower interest rates environments is almost over because Fed is going to raise interest rates.  And also advanced economy, weight growth has a big impact on the emerging market, but emerging market also will have an active impact on the advanced economy as well. We have to keep that in mind. You will see if an emerging market lower 1 percent of global GDP will impact a roughly 10 base point for US, quite a big 0.3 percent and roughly half percent of GDP growth negative impact on Japan as well. So we are really live together now. So the whole world is linked together, the global emerging market slowdown will have quite a big impact on the global GDP growth as well. China, everybody concerns about China gross slowdown, but the key issue will interest how much China gross slowdown will impact for the whole world. We have a very interesting study we see 1 percent of China's investment slowdown, let me emphasize investment slowdown is not a GDP, will impact China trade partners GDP gross slowdown. So roughly we'll have for Philippines, for Thailand, roughly 3.3, 3.4 career, roughly have a 1 percent investment slowdown have a 0.6 percent of the negative GDP gross impact on South Korea. This is huge. And on China's, this is manufactured partner commodity partners, you will see on Chile, on Jim Barberway, on Saudi, on Kazakhstan, roughly 1 percent of Chinese investment drop will have 0.3 to 0.4 potential GDP growth. Now think about that. This is not the two same thing. This is China's investment drop has a negative impact on China trade partners GDP gross drop. And China, we see need a drop 10 percent of the point of investment from kind of 44 percent of the GDP to roughly 35, 34. So 10 percent of an investment drop, how much will impact on the negative GDP growth on the China trade partners, which will be huge. And the second, think about that. The China need adjusted macroeconomic structure not only for today, for the next five years, maybe 10 years. So China's impact on its demand on the global commodity manufacturer trade partner, it's a long-term issue. So we'll have to understand that long-term impact from China to the whole war as well. So the commodity price because of that commodity price also the other reason probably oil price really job and understand that we see all your price will stay lower. Why that? This is the cost function of the oil production. It's not a fiscal cost. It's the cost production cost. You see on the Middle East, I'm sure the per barrel cost is only $29. Offshore share is only 43 and the extra heavy oil is really 53 deep water. So roughly share guess is today is around the $40, $45 per barrel. So the cost is really low. The real high end cost come to the oil sands found really deep waters. They do have a high cost of that. But over a big chunk of oil production still remain in the production cost around the $40 per barrel. So that's the reason when the monopoly can be broken down, everybody try to maintain the output. Since oil price drop, Saudi still produce 10.2 million barrel oil per day. US still produce 12.4 million barrel oil per day. Don't change it at all. With Iran, with Iraq join the supply side. So we'll proceed oil price will be low for quite a while, which is good news but also will create a different impact for the different country. Depends on your input and output as well. When we from the real economy move to the financial sectors, what we thought is really the central bank's balance is expanded dramatically, particularly in Japan. In all the advanced economies, roughly from 5%, 10% GDP increase to 15% as well. The key figure is here. It's here. The government death level is really way, way high. You will see this is the whole advanced economy, the death level. This death level is way high than the World War, the government death level. It's almost close to World War II. It's hard to believe see how high the government death they have today. It's for the world average, even for the emerging market, death level is way, way high. The death level has quite a few impacts here. Because one key issue is when you have a high death, you have pay high interest rates. It's hard to read this number. Let me just point one line. In the advanced economy in 2007, the total government death is 71.6% of GDP. Today, it's roughly 104.6%. So death increase roughly 40%. How much is that interest rate they pay? 2.9% of GDP that time, 2.9% GDP today. So death increase 40%. But the interest payments remain very low. Why is that? Because the interest rate is so low, which have profound impact on the low interest rates as well. We need to keep that in mind as mine. Interest rates are low. Everybody understand here? Yeah. I can jump later here. So everybody say interest low is QE, which is true, but it's not QE. You see the interest rates really pick the US interest roughly in 80s and all the way down, down, down, all the way to today. And the real interest rates is negative. But also tricky thing is when interest rates drop, quite a bit is the interest rates drop, but the capital cost then drop at all because van Boiland capital market. Now, the question is here. Will the interest rates go back and will interest rates go stay low? This is a fundamental issue because low interest rates change the production behavior, change the consumer behavior. This is a very important index for the whole world. And we expect to see interest rates to stay low level because the death pressure here. It cannot afford a higher interest rate. So whole things really link to each other now. So if we move to financial market, if we're putting them together, it's really the story I try to say is, yes, we lost a big chunk of global GDP. Yes, because crisis, the potential growth is much lower. Yes, because potential growth is lower, we operate under the output gap. So we need aggregate policy. We need the demand policy to push the demand to push the growth, right? It's a very straightforward as econ 101. But unfortunately, what I try to tell you in the second part is, there's no macro policy space. There's no monetary space. Central Bank's balances expand big enough already. There's no fiscal space because they cannot borrow more money because even in the today's level, if interest rates increase, every government will be in big problem because they squash the fiscal space. One percent interest increase, one percent of fiscal space shrink. So no fiscal space, more than that. We're also facing the financial market change. The big financial market changes really stretch changes. The whole banking intermediaries shift away from banking sector to shadow banking, to SS management company. You will see SS management companies really grow up strongly. It's holding compared with roughly pension funds, you know, I mean you will see this is really strong growth. And you will see the copper bonds overseas is very much owned by the pension fund now. The pension fund today becomes a big financial institute. Let me give you one number. In United States, compared today with 2007, the whole banking sector lend to the private sector, the real sector, dropped $286 billion. But the money come from SS management company. The lending from SS management company to the real sector increased 1.36 trillion. The whole financial intermediation shift away from traditional banking sector to the non-banking sector, which has a profound impact on what? On particularly on market liquidity issues. So when the central bank liquidity increase because of low interest rates, the market liquidity become very, very tight. And this is a typical chart to say how tight is the market liquidity. You will see the blue bar, it is the dealers infantry holding for the bonds. They need to clean the market. You see the peak is 400 billion in 2008. Today it's roughly only 100 billion. This is the index. So the dealers infantry is only 25% of the peak level in the process. But the bonds size needed to be cleaned increased roughly from 20 trillion to 40 trillion. So why market liquidity is so tight? I call the liquidity illusion issue. The bonds size increase two times roughly for 40 trillion. The infantry, the bonds deal a hold so they can clean the market drop roughly only 25% of peak level. This gap is a real market liquidity gap. So I always say this chart, it's a real liquidity illusion. The central bank liquidity and the market liquidity. And the shift really caused a big concern on those issues. And another concern is the dollars have become stronger. I'm putting two things together. It's not necessarily have to go together, but it's interesting. The red bar mean the number for crosses. You will see when dollar becomes stronger and in 80 you have a lot of crosses here in later 90s when dollar goes stronger again crosses again by that. When dollar goes stronger, dollar go back to US, the cost emerging market, the capital issues and when dollar getting stronger the copper sector balances and the countries balances become worse. They have to pay more. So dollar strong always associated on the balances management as well. And the fair to raise interest rates also a concern. Everybody talk about fair, fair is racist. So fair, I think I did a good job in terms of communication, make it very clear to everybody what is the policy. But real concern is in the market. The real concern is here. This is a fair, the forecast interest rates. This is a market forecast expected interest rates. This is the risk premium because low interest rates, the risk premium is so low and almost and the negative and the average risk premium should 175 base point 1.75% as well. Now the problem is if the fair the risk rate whether this curve will move to this curve, how soon, how fast. If this curve move to that curve, they will cause the global re-pricing all different risk of the assets. They will cause the market volatility. So fair the risk interest rates, I'm not concerned the capital flow today. The really concern is the hallmark response to that hallmark expectation move into the fair forecasting deadline. I think this move how soon, how fast. This is a big uncertainty here in the market given the market liquidity is very tight and the loss of this chart is also very scary. This is very technical. So the real another concern today is really NC but it's a serious in financial market interconnectivities. This bar showed how much interconnectivity increase. This is the U.S. Treasury. You could the global interest interest move roughly from 40% of the movement to 80% of the movement. Emerging market you see the index move also from roughly 45% to 75%. So you will see the this is U.S. high yield bounce market commitments. Coal movements increase really dramatically during the crisis. We are living such a tightly interconnected world which is bad news for portfolio management because I mean you invest in whatever the market doesn't matter because every market moving the same thing right. But it created a big problem for us. The real concern is when the market move into the one direction it soak all the liquidity. It make the liquidity extremely extremely tight. So you will see isn't the blue dose is the the Coal movements. The Coal movements levels varies from 20% to 0.8 and roughly varies. So this is liquidity become very tight and this is okay. So liquidity is pretty much okay. But the red dose is after crisis. What happened compared before crisis and after crisis connectivity increase the Coal movements increased dramatically. You will see most heavy parties here at that time most heavy parties are here now and move all the way to the liquidity tightening. It's even more in the derivative market. In the derivative market you will see the Coal movements and the liquidity is always moving sort of in a very different distribution map. But after crisis see all highly interconnected and with a very tight liquidity. The reason is very simple. If everyone into the one direction drove the money into the one direction of course there's no market. That's a real concern. If the Coal move towards this line we don't know how far, how soon, how big, how strong. We know if they move into that direction in a strong way the market will shift all the way to this end. We're facing a real, real serious liquidity challenge. So this is the things we experienced just a week ago when China stock market volatiles. The global market volatiles dramatically. You will see fix roughly from 15% jump to more than 40% just over a day and two days. The market can change very dramatically because we're living in such such interconnected world. Putting them together I think the message is very clear. Number one we lost a lot of global GDP because of crisis. The scarf is deeper and bigger and we all run under the potential growth and future potential growth also is awakening because the weak investment growth, the weak labor supply growth and also the weak productivity growth as well. And when we're facing the weak the growth we need to aggregate demand policy to push the growth. We don't have a policy space because we don't have monetary policy, we don't have a fiscal policy. So but financial sectors we're also facing challenges because the shifting in the market structures and because the strong dollar and the federal interest rates and possible market volatility as well. So what's the policy recommendation? The policy recommendation go very straightforward. Number one at this time maintain the macro stability still the key. The global cooperation become extremely extremely important today because we all live together and the most importantly given we don't have a demand side of policy space do the supply side things do the structural reform. These are the key issues and the structural reform in the product market in the labor markets in the service sectors in pension reforms all those structural reforms will play an important role to boost the potential growth for the futures invest in the infrastructure in the knowledge economies and long term on the innovation of SMEs. The structural reform is everything. We found the whole world needed to do the structural reform. It's a low-income country, it's an emerging market, it's in the advanced economy with the different roles in the different areas but for the next few years was a structural reform is the key thing to define the growth potential to define the growth of the whole world. I'll stop here. Thank you very much.


Hello friends, my name is Saurabh Deshmukh, working as an assistant professor in Department of Mechanical Engineering, Vulture Institute of Technology, Sallapur. In previous video, we have learned the dynamic viscosity along with kinematic viscosity and their units. Also, we have learned the Newton's law of viscosity. In this video, we are going to learn the effect of temperature on viscosity along with its problems. The learning outcome at the end of this session, the learner will able to explain viscosity and will also able to solve problem on viscosity. Now, we will see the viscosity variation along with temperature. So, effect of temperature on viscosity. So, the temperature affects viscosity. The viscosity of liquid decreases with increase in temperature, while the viscosity of gases increases with increase in temperature. So, I will write it here, the temperature viscosity for fluid for gas, ok. So, as the temperature of the fluid or the liquid decreases, as the temperature of the fluid or liquid decreases, the viscosity increases, ok. And as the temperature of the gas decreases, the viscosity also decreases or in other term as liquid and gas, as the temperature of the liquid or fluid increases, the viscosity decreases. And as the temperature of gas increases, the viscosity also increases. This happens because in liquid, the cohesive forces are dominant over the molecular transfer or molecular moment transfer. So, as the temperature increases, the cohesive forces decreases. So, the viscosity, we know that in liquid, the cohesive forces are dominant over the molecular moment transfer. So, as the temperature increases, the cohesive forces decreases, which cause the decrease in viscosity. But in gases, the cohesive forces are smaller as compared to the molecular moment transfer. So, with increase in temperature, the molecular moment transfer increases and hence the viscosity also increases, ok. So, for liquid, mu equals to mu 0 into 1 upon 1 plus alpha t plus beta t square, where the mu is the viscosity of liquid at t degree Celsius, ok. mu 0 is viscosity of liquid at 0 degree Celsius. Alpha and beta are the constants for the liquid, where alpha equals to 0.03368 and beta equals to 0.000221, ok. And the mu 0, that is the viscosity of the liquid or particularly water here, it is 1.79 into 10 raise to minus 3 poise. And for gases, the formula is mu equals to mu 0 plus alpha t minus beta t square, where again mu is the viscosity of the gases at temperature t, mu 0 is viscosity of gases at temperature 0, alpha and beta are constant and t is temperature, ok. For air, the value of mu 0 equals to 0.000117 and alpha equals to it is 0.00000056 while beta equals to it is 0.1189 into 10 raise to. Now, we will see a problem on viscosity. So, the problem a plate 0.025 mm distance from a fixed plate moves at 60 centimeter per second and requires a force of 2 Newton per unit area, that is 2 Newton per meter square to maintain this speed, ok. Now, we need to determine the fluid viscosity between the plates. Now, I will just draw a diagram here, ok. This is the fixed plate and moving plate is at a 0.025 mm distance from the fixed plate. So, this will be the moving plate, which is moving with the velocity 60 centimeter per second, ok. And force is also required here to maintain this speed, which is 2 Newton, ok. And the distance between these two plates is, we take it as a dy equals to 0.025 mm. Let consider these fluids are apart from each other by the means of oil. So, now, we need to calculate the viscosity of this oil, ok. So, first of all, we will write the given data here. So, they have given the distance between the plates, ok. That is dy equals to 0.025 mm, which is equals to 0.025 into 10 raise to minus 3 meter. Also, the velocity of the moving plate is also given, which is u equals to 60 centimeters per second. So, it is, it will be 0.6 meter per second. So, the force on the upper plate also is given. So, that will be F equals to 2 Newton per meter square. Now, we need to calculate the viscosity of the oil, ok. That will be mu equals to tau upon dou u by dou y. So, we have the value of tau here, that is force required per unit area, that is tau, that is shear stress. We also have the value of dy. Now, we need to calculate the du, that is this, that is the difference between the velocities of two plates. Obviously, this velocity, this plate is fixed. So, the velocity of the fixed plate will be 0. So, du equals to, it will be 60 minus 0, which is equals to 60 centimeter per second, that is 0.6 meter per second. So, we will substitute this given data in this formula. So, mu equals to tau is 2 upon du is 0.6 by 0.025 into 10 dash 2 minus 3. So, after calculating this substitutions, we will get mu equals to 8.33 into 10 dash 2 minus 4 poise or either 8.33 into 10 dash 2 minus 5 Newton second per meter square. A flat plate of area 1.5 into 10 dash 2 6 mm square is pulled with a speed of 0.4 meter per second, related to another plate located at a distance of 0.15 mm apart from it. Find the force and power required to maintain the speed if the fluid separating them having viscosity 1 poise. Now, we will write the given data here. So, they have given the area of plate. So, that will be A equals to 1.5 into 10 dash 2 6 mm square, which is equals to 1.5 meter square. Now, they have given the relative speed between the two plates. It is given as 0.4 meter per second. So, it will be du equals to 0.4 meter per second. They have also given the relative distance between the two plates that is 0.15 mm. So, it will be dy equals to 0.15 mm, relatively 0.15 into 10 dash 2 minus 3 meter. So, now we need to calculate the force required and power required to maintain the speed. So, we know that tau equals to mu into du by dy. So, we will first calculate the tau that is shear stress. So, it will be also they have given the mu the value of viscosity. So, mu equals to it is 1 poise or it is 1 by 10 Newton second per meter square. So, we will substitute it here 1 by 10 into 0.4 upon 0.15 into 10 dash 2 minus 3. So, it will be 266.66 Newton per meter square. Now, we need to calculate the force. So, we know we all know that f equals to shear stress or here tau into area area of the plate is given here. So, it will be 266.66 into the area is 1.5 meter square. So, it will be 1.5. So, the force required per unit area will be 400 Newton. Now, we need to calculate the power required to move this plate at a constant speed. So, we all know that force into velocity that is u here. So, force will be here 400 into velocity is 0.4. So, it will be 160 watt. So, the power equals to 160 watt and the force required to maintain the speed will be 400 Newton. These are the references. Thank you.


The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour, and it doesn't matter where you're at, in the world, or off the world. I think we got some people in space, so they could be all kinds of places, and they could start the show off in one side of the globe and be on the other by the time it's over. So it doesn't really matter as long as they're here with us at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Well, I haven't heard anybody trade from space yet, but I'm sure, I'm sure if you can do it on your phone, maybe somebody's done it from up there. You can give me a call today at<PHONE_NUMBER>. We've come off one of the most oversold markets on a short term basis. What we're going to find out today is, is this a short covering rally or not? I've got the most shorted stocks in the market. I sent out a list with the particulars. We won't go through those on the air, but we will go through the names so you can keep an eye on them. And that, we were worried about until about 2.45 or 2.50 on Friday, the possibility of an invasion of the Ukraine. We found out from a leaked phone call that, hey, even the Ukrainian president doesn't think it's common. So that was kind of interesting. I was listening to a lot of people that thought it was imminent. Still could be, because tonight, or tomorrow night, actually is the new moon. So if they want to come in under the cover of darkness, then I have people telling me, well, they would invade, but they've got to have frozen tundra. So the tanks just don't sink into the mud. And that seems kind of interesting. But you'd think they would have thought of that when they made the tank, make the treads wide enough that they wouldn't just sink in the mud. But I do not know, but I do not trust the Putin. And I do trust that the dude abides, but I do not trust in the Putin<PHONE_NUMBER>. So we're up 62 points. The real question is, are we going to have the kind of volume that really makes this worth it? And are people going to infer that the earnings we had in the last week with Microsoft and Apple are going to go into the rest of the market? I think a lot of people are getting, are pricing in a lot more on the earnings this week. And we do have some interesting options, I mean, earnings. After the bell tonight, we've got a little bit of tech with NXPI, about 50% of their business goes to cars, automobiles, transportation, that a lot of those were shut down in this quarter. It's going to give us a kind of a read on just how bad was it? Kind of feel like Johnny Carson. How bad was it? It was so bad. Anyway, serious logic. Also, tonight in the oil sector, we've got Holmerick and Payne. Seems like there should be a joke with that, but there is not. Now, tomorrow morning in the morning, before the bell in the morning, that means before 9.30, if you're in Lutz, untied parcel service, that's UPS, Exxon Mobile, you got to think that's going to be good, Linux International, maybe a little bit of color on what's happening in housing, manpower group, Pultee Homes, also another little bit of read on housing and what they're expecting, what they're seeing. I've seen the reports. We also have Scott's Miracle Grow. Hey, you know, I haven't looked at that in an eternity. It was my pick. If you were getting into the weed business, what does this thing look like now? Well, it came way off with the weed business. Still the best probably weed stock that there is, and actually doesn't look very bad, but yeah, you'd really love to see a retest of 133, but man, it don't look like you're going to get it. You had a nice move higher on the 7th of December a day that will live in infamy, well, actually with about the same volume, if that's right, 500,000, yeah, not as good as I thought. Okay, so what else do we have going on out here this week? Well, that's a tomorrow morning before the bell. After the bell, we've got PayPal, AMD, Google, Starbucks, Gilead, Electronic Arts, MicroStrategy, Match Group, if you're into Grinder. And we know just how much traders are into Grinder. Anyway, that's after the bell tomorrow night. Wednesday, we've got D.H. Horton, so a little bit more color. In fact, I think if we're growing, filling in between the lines, what do they call that, the kids' books? Fill in the blank, not fill in the blanks, where you fill in the lines. Anyway, waste management, marathon petroleum, that's got to be good. Capri holding, Shimana, Johnson Controls, a little bit more on what's going on in automotive. After the bell on Wednesday night, we've got Metamucil, used to be known as Facebook, Qualcomm, so we're going to get a little bit more on the phone business. You know, I said when we looked at Gile, it was at GLW, it just really looked from those numbers that Apple was going to be good. It started off slow and then went back higher. Qualcomm probably, I don't know, I'm going to bet that that's probably priced in from Apple's movement. Spotify Technology, and we'll talk about that. I got some emails. Coolic and Sofa, a little bit more on that, Align Technology, the invisible braces, Corvo, another play for the phone, cellular phone, smartphone business. It is a McKesson. So we got that Thursday, Penn National Gaming, Nokia, Merck, Eli, Biogen. So got a little bit of a murder's row for biotech next Thursday. Unless you really have an abiding belief like the dude, because the dude abides, then you've got to be thinking about maybe editing stage left before that hits the fan after the bell on Thursday night. We've got Amazon Snap, Pinterest, Ford Motor, Skyworks Solutions, a little bit more in that cellular phone, smartphone business. Skechers, I think everybody, the Skechers had been doing fairly well. Fortnett, Clorox, Decker's brand, and we've got a little bit of tennis shoes this week. Friday morning, as we get back, finish up the week, we've got Bristol, Myers Squibb, Royal Caribbean, Regeneron, so a little bit of bio like this week. We'll be back in a minute. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return, or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. 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For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. As we get back, a question out here is Boeing from Ronald and Boeing got a big deal out, not a lot of volume out here, but interesting. Nonetheless, they kind of leaked on Thursday, Friday that they've got a couple of new variants of the 787, which may better compete with the low end of the Airbus. So we'll see about that. But man, you got to bounce. But I would have liked to see maybe 25 million shares today. So you see how the end of that comes in today, but we shall see. Let's do a little history and then we'll move on. And it's history repeating. SBC announced on this day in 2005 it would purchase AT&T Corporation. Huh, I thought AT&T was a corporation of its own. For more than 16 billion, this completed maybe the longest and sorted tail of an old AT&T company after the breakup in 1984. SBC, one of the original baby bells, renamed itself AT&T after the merger, confusing nearly everyone in the world as to which company was really which anymore. And that is a question. I know somebody rebuilding a hundred year old yacht, wooden yacht, and has almost replaced every piece of wood in the boat. Is it the same boat? At what point does it not become the same boat? Yeah, I think that's probably a question for academic scholars. But yeah, is it AT&T really AT&T? Don't know on this day in 2005. More questions than answers, as always. OK, what else do we have? Oh, did I? I don't think I put anything in there. Yeah, did I? Let's see if I did because I may have forgotten about it. Uh, what do we have here? I think I got to it most oversold since 2016 most highly shorted since 2016. So we probably were going to get a bounce. This leads me to the theme of today's very special show. All of them are special. This one's just a little bit more special. And that is what's going on with the short leaders out here. This is all the stocks with more than five days to cover. That means whatever the average volume is in the last 30 days, it would take five days of that just to get the shorts out. Albertson's not exactly sure why you want to be shortened. A grocery store doesn't seem like a fast kind of move. But hey, you're up a little bit, but only about half the volume of Friday. We look at other ones out here. AEO American Eagles Outfitters, almost nothing on that. A G, which is a first misgestic silver, a little bit of a bounce, about half the volume, maybe a little more than we had on Friday. If you're looking at this as some kind of reversal out there. So not a lot of people piling into that yet so far today. AKBA, which is a beaker therapeutics. Man, if you saw that today, you certainly wouldn't see it. Volumes about three-fourths, maybe. It looks like you might be able to match that volume for Friday. AMCOR, about half the volume of Friday. A-T-U-S, maybe a fourth of the volume of Friday. This is Altus, A-T-U-S. Look at this. I mean, it's a nice one on a move, but is it an oversold? In that, you certainly would think that if everybody was short this thing, that you'd have a ton of volume today if this was just short covering out here, or this was a short squeeze rally. You'd see a lot more in that. Bed Bath and Below, a little bit of a pop out here. Again, so far today, got seven million shares compared to the 14 million shares on Friday. Ben Franklin Resources. Up a little bit. Volume's pretty good, but I wouldn't say that the candle does much for today. Got a little Doji and BGC partners. And what is that? And it's just a Doji out here on no volume. What do these guys do that those guys don't do? Let's take a quick look. Okay. Brokeage and Financial Technology Company in the United States. Government bonds, corporate bonds, other debt instruments. Okay. I should probably know these folks, but I don't. BKR. This one challenged the top, did so on just a little bit lighter volume. Again, we got more energy coming this week. Nice reversal on this one. It did open kind of lower and close higher out here. We'd like to see a lot more volume from that one before the end of the day. CLNY, which is colony financial. And just going sideways on a day with about, I'm going to say five eighths, the volume of Friday so far. CLR, Continental Resources, just going sideways. About half the volume of Friday so far. CLVS, which is Clovis Oncology. A little tick higher. CRO On the Cron. What is the actual name of this company? Chronos Group. Okay. 22. You got a nice move out here. Friday you had 2.8 million shares. Today you got 1.5. That could turn into something later in the day. Deutsche Bank. Certainly a huge move off the low. Kind of a state sponsored bank. Probably the best way to describe it. Decent volume on the day. 2.9 million shares compared to the 4.3 on Friday. DD, double D. Not much on this one. Volume has been decreasing for a week. Datadog. This one I think a lot of people have been waiting for. It had kind of found a way of balancing out the lows out here. Going sideways for about seven or eight days. You got to move higher today. 3.3 million shares so far compared to five. That could get a little bit better before the end of the day. Dish networks. I don't know how these guys ever hang around. But there's AMC and others. All having the same kind of problems. Not much out here. About half the volume you had today. How you had on Friday. Dynavax technologies. About fourth of the volume they had on Friday. 8 by 8. About a fourth of the volume you had on Friday. So that doesn't look like much of a squeeze yet. Certainly no volume involved to chase these folks out. AXA equitable and nice move. But again you had a big thrust down on 5.2 million shares on Friday. You got about 1.9 million shares so far today. EXEL on this. Almost at the time of the second. We'll be back. We'll go through as many of these as we can. Maybe we'll get through the whole list. But I think we're starting to see a theme here. That is the short stocks are not seeing the big pieces so far. About half the volume on sellers that we had on Friday. Maybe a little less. Back. You having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com. 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And Excellus, which is a biotech company, they've got a couple of cancer drugs out, I think. Again, are we seeing a big short squeeze out here? Normally you get a squeeze, you get some volume. Not getting much out here in most of these stocks. Excellus, E-X-E-L. And 2.4 million shares Friday, you got 763,000 today. So yeah, I'm going to continue thinking that what we have here is everybody piling back into the usual suspects like Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and that kind of stuff, thinking that they're going to be the safe stocks going forward, but kind of tough to bet on that. Matterport Digital Twin 3D data platform. Can you look at the, oh, this new issue. Okay, let's take a look at here. I had another question by one of my subscribers about companies like this. And there are just so many of them. And the question is, do these guys do something that no one else can do? Because the underlying technology of all this stuff is just pieces and parts bought from China and integrated in their technology. Everybody kind of does the same thing. I haven't seen a great deal of these companies that differentiates themselves.  And the thing spins around with lasers and measures the interior room and stuff like that. And then they're able to recreate it. And everybody, I think everybody that's watched those shows has seen that kind of technology. It's just that everybody does it. Everybody buys the same parts from the same people that make them in China. And as it more of a software-based thing it is, but I think you have to know that business to know what's important in the software before you pick one of these companies. But I think there's three or four or five of these things out there over the last year that have IPO'd. And I just don't know what's the important part. This is where if you're in the business maybe you understand a lot better than I do. But comment, hey, people still have dish networks, maybe that's interesting. Matterport. You're up today with about half the volume you had Friday. 21 million shares on Friday. Damn, a little better. 12.8 million shares so far today. Let's go to some other one. Fold. Wash and fold. Amicus Therapeutics. Actually, I like at least the light volume test of January 10th to $8.4 million. No, $8.41 on 10.6 million shares. Got about 2 million shares from Friday when you went down and test that low. But you would have liked to seen some volume come in today, just a million shares so far. So could these just all be dead cat bounces? Well, I'd like to see some volume come in to actually make me think these are anything other than some one-day wonders. But again, these are not the biggest stocks in the market. We'll look at those if we still have time today. 21st Century Fox. About half the volume of Friday. Friday had a big turnaround, 4 million shares. These guys, of course, are all on cable. Both are Fox News and other stuff. But I think they sold a lot of the stuff to Disney, didn't they? Anyway, I'm not a big fan of being on anything on cable. If I had to buy something, it would probably be Fox. They are the only people that have anybody watching them left on cable news. You got maybe 10, 15, 20% of the people watching CNN, MSNBC, Weather Channel, all the other go-tos. There just aren't people watching cable news anymore with a rare exception. They don't have any more people than they had a year ago, but certainly they're not as bad off as CNN and MSNBC. CNN is for sale at about, I think, a fourth of the price that they were asking for a year and a half ago. AT&T desperately wants to get rid of it and get out of it, which may tell you a lot more future about what's going to go on in cable. You can't just have one or two channels holding everything up for that level of infrastructure. I think eventually it all goes digital, but then do you really need a cable company other than for internet? GEO, not much of a bounce at all out here today. This one doesn't even get the dead cat bounce to Generalon. You got a little move out here, but again, not a lot of volume. GIS, which is General Mills opposed to Colonel Sanders. I want to see them go a mono, a mono in a octagon. Anyway, General Mills. You had a nice push higher. Probably the one thing that I've noticed over the weekend was how much money are going into these cyclical companies that people think are going to be safe next year, like General Mills, Kellogg's, that kind of stuff. Gogo, this is one that's circling the drain as far as I can tell with Musk and his satellites being everywhere, but it hasn't quite dropped down. Again, monster short, so I'm not going to be chasing that one. HBI, which is Hibbet, isn't it? Haines Brands, okay. So you had a lot of volume on the downside on Friday. You had 5.6 million shares today. You're up on 2.8. So this isn't a giant turnaround on volume for most of these short stocks. It's a pretty decent move out here on H&R Block, but again maybe 5.8 of the volume so far had on Friday not a blowout. HST, which is host resorts. Nice reversal candle. You had 5.6 million shares on Friday, excuse me, 3.2 so far today. There didn't that much. Kind of interesting to see at least one name you can instantly know on this list of massively shorted stocks and that is IBM. Not much going on in this one either. You had some decent volume on Friday of 5.5 million shares. You got 3 million today, but it's not even going up. Just kind of going sideways. International flavors and fragrances had more volume than previous low by about 300,000 shares on from the September 22nd low. So 2.2 million shares on Friday, 1 million shares today. IMGN, Immunogen, another one of these biotech companies. Again, if you missed the first part of the show, just how much that biotech has weighted this weekend. I mean the last couple of days, Thursday, Friday. So maybe a good trade is to go into these through Wednesday or Wednesday night. But who knows on Thursday and Friday. Be back in a minute. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and passive investors. Distributor, 4-Side Fund Services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. As we return, we're back into stocks that have amazing levels of short selling and mostly based on how many days to cover that it would be what's going on. And if everybody is just saying this is a short covering rally, why aren't they covering these shorts? Anyway, Immunogen bounce out here today. Friday, they had 3.2 million shares. Today, they got one so far. Again, these could pick up before the end of the day. But does this look like a handful of stocks are getting all the love? And these aren't changing much. Infinera INFN, the symbol on this one. Nice reversal-looking candle. You had 2.8 million shares on Friday. You got one million shares today. INO and no-vote pharmaceuticals. I'm going to say there's much in here. Iron Mountain. This is one I probably should have stuck with. We talked about it last year. It never really did anything for the short squeeze. This thing has been absolutely pounded for years now. I'm not exactly sure the reason everybody thinks these people are going out of business. But certainly that way. Invesco mortgage capital up on light volume. Juniper Networks. Some very nice candles over the last couple of days. Again, 9.4 million shares on Friday. You got about 5.3 million shares. We're not starting off the week with a lot of volume in those. KPTA, T.I. Kerrio O'Farm Therapeutics. I retested the previous high on 3.5 million shares compared to the 1.6. About double the volume back here on January 26. Friday had 2.7 million shares today. 800,000. I'm going to say that most of these bounces so far have been fairly wimpy. Kroger, another grocery store of people shorting the living daylights out of. I do not understand this. These things move like glaciers. The only good thing you have today is this is back down into the December 22 low on light volume. I don't know who shorts grocery stores. Unless you know that they were poisoning their companies, it could take you a thousand years to get your money back. Not a lot of volume. 3.5 million shares compared to the 10 million shares on Friday. This is kind of more of a bottoming pattern than many of the others we've seen out there. L.T.H.M. Livit. Yeah. Had a little doji out here on Friday. Just under 2 million shares. Got 1 million shares today. Again, I'm going to have to see a lot of volume come in before the end of the day before I start feeling that this is a lot better. Move out here. M.A.C.R.I.T. Not much to write home about. M.P.C. Barathon Petroleum, as we said on this one. I don't know why you short this one. This is, you know, if energy goes up, if there's going to be a stock that does have a short squeeze on this, this one does look fairly good other than the fact you only got about half the volume you had on Friday, and everything is for sale these days. M.T.D.R. Matador Resources. At least hold in the highs. Not a lot of volume as it goes sideways. If this thing gets going, keep an eye on that one with its short levels. M.T.G., which is Magic Investments. If it makes a profit, it's going to be Magic. Again, on Friday, 1.7 million shares to the downside testing today, 900,000 shares so far, upside. One of the ones that had been off the list for a while had been McEwen Mining. It is back like a bad rash with massive shorting in this thing and a low of 80 cents. The December 15th low had 4 million shares. Friday had 1.7. Today, you got 1.1. I'm not exactly sure what's going on here other than the fact that 80 cent stock people are continuing to once again go after it fairly heavily. I'm not exactly sure what they're thinking. To Nielsen, do we even need these guys anymore if they're all automatic? I don't need a ratings or people that write down stuff in a book. It's all on the web these days. 5.8 million shares on the downside, 2.75 million shares so far on the upside today. Nuon Communications, that's out of here. NVTA, Invita Common Stock, about half the volume of Friday. As I said, we're getting here fairly late in the ballgame to be down this. It makes me think of the Bucks game where they almost got there but they took about one extra quarter off that they shouldn't have. New York Community Bank Corp. They had 8.2 million shares on Friday, about 6 million shares. Maybe I don't like the volume on Friday but that one at least got some decent volume today. On Semiconductors, nice pop here. Friday they had almost 10 million shares. Today about 6.2 million shares. Nice place to actually buy it. One of the few stocks out here that had a fairly good gap that got retested. 23 million share gap tested on 10 million shares. That one actually looks a little bit better than most. OPK. OP... OPKO. A little bounce on this one. 6.4 million shares on Friday, 3.5 million shares today. Well, I think we've gone through enough of these. Do I have to go through the rest? Probably not. SGMO, which we've been talking about in the den for a while. But this doesn't seem to be getting going. Worst thing is things going sideways. If we do find some kind of low in biotech, this one had massively shorted. 500,000 shares today, but 1.1 million shares on Friday. Again, like I said, there's really much going on out here. Not a whole lot. Let's take a look at Z, which is Zillow, which may be trying to make some kind of low. Finally, this thing... Well, it's got a 50% off sale sign hanging on it.  This man talked about taking a very quick beating. May find a low here. When we back, we'll look at some of the usual suspects before we wrap up the show. Doesn't look like a big short squeeze move today in at least the most highly shorted spots. We'll go back to the usual suspects. Yeah. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. 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This week, we have a much bigger problem, I suspect. These are companies that close their books later. They're also companies that probably are more sensitive to shipping issues, the dock issues around the Long Beach and issues of supply chains. Microsoft, not really a big problem with supply chains ever, although they do make some hardware. Apple, a bigger deal, but they've got all these things all lined up far in advance. Everything's pretty much built in Asia and almost everything as we talked about going into Christmas could be thrown on a 747. And I even saw an argument over the weekend that they made more money instead of shipping them in via a ship that putting on a 747 and selling them instantly actually made their money turnover look better, which some people may be thinking of. But yeah, if 10 bucks is that such a big price to pay on a $1,500 smartphone? I don't think many people, including Apple or the customer would understand the difference in the 10 bucks or care. That much, but interestingly enough, Microsoft up. Certainly a lot of volume on Friday. We have 50 million shares up on 28 million so far. Watch that volume as you come into the end of the day. So when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here tomorrow. Same Bat Channel, same Bat Time.


Alrighty new update on this there's sound. Let's watch the whole thing when you finish you can take the kids swimming swimming ah Gee, I forgot my bathing suit. I guess I can't go in the water all summer.  I'm not gonna wear it until I lose maybe three or four pounds when you're right All right, I'm seeing all the updates in there. I got some notes here and there Turn on the sound just a tad here So I like that you included the Turn here, so it doesn't feel like a 2d card anymore.  This is a bit more upright the whole thing that It it feels a bit like it's just up here and it's cut off and there's nothing else there And I think to me it feels like she can come in here and then we actually bring in The frame just a bit more when she comes in and does that so it's not just in here We barely see it. I almost missed it. I think I would Stylize it in caricature and just go broader because it's also the dialogue and the voices everything's very old-timey So when you do this she could have a slight lean back That amount of rotation is okay, but imagine just the head would be further back She's really making a point to be seen. Hey, I'm talking to you But also something for the audience to really notice right now It's a bit too subtle subjectively just to me. I think that could be Could be tweaked Then in terms of his arms It still has the thing. I see some of the changes where the hand starts to have an arc It doesn't cover her which is great I Think to me, there's just some Contrasting broader things but also some technical things like technically if you look at if I'm gonna go crazy here with If I track just that wrist I'm gonna pretend that that's where the controller is to some degree, right? And then I guess it's around here. I'm gonna keep pretending to be tracking Something although at this point I guess it would be lower, but anyway Broadly speaking you can see this transition here how this arm goes up straight and then like that So watch out for your arcs just just from a technical point of view, but it still feels like this is Is a huge move and then This is another huge move. So when you look at that, it's very similar in terms of energy You might argue well, this one's higher. Sure, but this is why I mentioned that I Personally would have kept this one here again. This is it's your shot. Oh all subjective But you are paying for this workshop. So I want to give you my opinions. I'm not gonna not say anything That's my job here. So I still personally would reduce this by a ton You can still go up and do this and then that arm might just be down here Slightly up or I would still just keep it on that table so that when it's here Keep it there. And if he goes all the way up like that, what does that mean? Well, maybe that means that the shoulder might just be lower But it's still in that pose where it's kind of like that And that way you have somewhere to go with intensity same with this this to me feels too big I would go not more than this meaning that you might go from something like this Soft with a little bit of an arc up like that or something small like this But this is small bigger big, right? So this would be the small one slightly bigger gesture and then you finish with the big one And that's why I mentioned this otherwise you have same energy three times just feels very repetitive personally Yeah, I think this just takes away from that Big gesture there watch out Excuse me. Mm-hmm. Never eat crackers before you have a feedback session From a technical point of view watch out as you continue with more detail when you have a lot of elbow movements Like that the hand is completely still you're gonna have to have some keep alive and some impression on the fingers things like that Even that elbow if you watch that boom stops a bit harshly so Keep going on that type of cleanup same thing if you have all of that body movement Watch out for this wrist. There's nothing going on. So you're gonna have to have some movement and compression and changes That's all the awesome polish stuff And there's a little bit of a slight feel of a sudden stop Pong on that That line there. It's not like there's a Arm pop, but still it's just a bit harsh and even this one starts to have it almost like a pin through here Like it's just pivoting off of here and then bigger linear key coming down. So it's just mostly Clean up for that stuff and then This one's a bit odd if you look at his eyes It's very fast Looks over there quickly over there Clearly over there and it's almost like he's looking at camera, but he watches in real time It doesn't it just doesn't quite feel natural and I know it is one of the notes where I Would suggest to have him kind of look at her to see a ditchy ditchy catch on that I'm doing something wrong, but what I would do is if he goes like this.   I will probably go from here and at this point not as far although I like that eyes lead there, but I'm trying to find a moment where I Mean one of the compromise could be just to have your dart over there and leave it Don't move over there So just kind of like a look because it is corner of the eye it gives you that kind of feeling of is she checking And then at least it will read enough. This is just too much and it happens right before the cut If there's something then cut out of that last dart, but in order to not So I do it in order to have that read better But what I would be if this was my shot what I would do is I would reduce the amount of head movement So you move the head around a lot. You don't quite notice what the eyes are doing.  So and then that way you have kind of a Just a clear read of that. I Make sense and Then watch out There's something you did for the note of having A movement in that arm because of this was all the tension and in the post change with but right now It just feels a bit mechanical stops on a bit of a harsh note and It doesn't feel like it's quite part of the moment It just feels like a separate move just added on to me it would be and Ah like this is when he goes up and on that up shoulder goes up and then the chest goes a bit over There's slight rotation and this then goes down and it might even Go off the hip a little bit to be a bit looser, but that's kind of how we approach that The rest is working better here in the second half This is just a bit post-aposive and all of that moves and it also feels like a linear key on that leg Like the roots the leg the arm everything moves bam and everything stops even there's a little bit of continuation here I would have that a bit more like something really would lead probably could lead with that arm a lot Or you start moving your your route over for a shift and then the leg continues But even when he comes down here, I would give it a little bit easier and he's out just a little bit Even though that's a step, but imagine it has a bit of a rotation on that ankle Just kind of soft a little bit, but you still want to feel like well at that point There's no more weight so the hip is going to go up a bit And it's not such of a harsh stop And on that post change it's slightly more forward, but to me I know it's kind of a match with this and he feels fairly straight, but It just feels still a bit more like this I would personally cheat and start that bend in that in the chest around here And you don't have to maybe less with the head, but it's just a bit more of a Like that I love this though, I love that he has that Huh that thought and also you have it here right there, huh, huh? That's great I love that that's in there Watch out this starts to feel a bit too twin there You just have a bit of a different pose arm back in maybe this one a bit further in It just feels not quite natural and I think one of the other notes were that he's just a bit squatty And I know he gets up here, but even here he still has there's still something fairly Squatty there, but it's mostly this just feels off the straight arms twins with that squatty feel there This watch out. There's a tangent right there between her arm and his arm and this is weird as if She's pushing his arms. See that that arm comes over a both of them stop at the same time And they feel like IK arms just because they go in a very straight line. They the arcs are very harsh here They seem like IK arms and then it comes to a sudden stop And it feels like you don't want to overlap things which I understand why you want to keep this clear, but And you just kind of cheat and bring that arm in like that For a bit of a bigger lean over there. I would still push that it's still fairly straight And this feels out so to me it feels like bring that arm in but lean that body over more To get that I'm not gonna wear it. I'm not I'm against you type of feel Same thing here. It's a harsh stop bound So it's a lot of clean up. I think mostly that I would say here So watch out for your arcs and easins and stops and especially arts and arms if they're IK But that's cute The only thing I would say is on That hand here again arcs seems like it goes up and it has a bit of a stop and goes down And then after that it's kind of the same pose wise with the fingers Imagine that hand will be a bit rotated out and then comes in and there's been maybe a bit of a squeeze of the fingers So just a bit more Polish love on that one just overall as well Alrighty, thanks Alright, there's an email you can sign up You can start whenever you want you can submit whatever you want to get 16 submissions either way a like and subscribe would be awesome All right. Thank you


Well, thank you very much for having me here today and thank you all for coming. I know it's sunny outside So if that had happened in England, I can guarantee you no one would be here For me, it's really and now I must apply to psychologist and by training So the reason why I'm interested in big data and the open-source movement is really because it can tell us a lot about How people behave in their everyday lives and how that relates to something like more stable psychological traits that make people Uniquely themselves and so you can already tell that my talk is going to be a little different To the talks that you're probably going to hear over the course of the day But I still hope that you enjoy it and that you learn something new about how data can relate to something like psychology Okay, so now I want to start and with the news story that I'm pretty sure that many of you have come across in one way or another And so that was a new story that was originally published in the Swiss news outlet That's magazine and basically in a nutshell what the authors claim is that the Trump presidential campaign had used detailed psychological profiles of millions and millions of voters and in the US to target them with highly personalized Advertising and on Facebook and the goal was not only to kind of convince and Trump supporters to go out and vote for Trump But also to kind of discourage and Hillary voters to go out on election day and put in their vote And so I mean it's it's kind of questionable whether that story is true simply because we don't have any data So it's very not open source and in that sense And but it clearly put digital psychometrics and in the spotlight and it's kind of now known around the world And that's why I want to kind of talk about what is digital psychometrics? How does it work and what could be the benefits but also like the challenges that we experience by now being able to predict Someone's kind of highly intimate psychological characteristics from their online behavior Okay, so psychometrics really means that we're trying to assess someone's psychological traits something like their personality They're acute their life satisfaction And the way that we did that traditionally was that we use questionnaire measures So we would give people a questionnaire that says I talked to a lot of different people that parties and now tell us How much you agree with that statement and What we were really getting at is basically people self-perception So they told us about how they saw themselves and you can I mean it's quite obvious that that's a bit problematic for various reasons And I just want to kind of briefly talk about you the first one is that well people lie And so especially if there's a lot of stake at stake when you kind of apply to a job I doubt that many people would say that they strongly agree to the statement I make a mess of things so it's very very easy to kind of misrepresent on these questionnaires And the second problem is that it's very difficult to scale So kind of completing one of these tests takes between five minutes up to an hour So we can like as research is we can easily invite people to the laboratory have them complete the questionnaire Maybe do that for like 20 50 people But if you want to do that for millions and millions of people then it gets a bit problematic Now watch digital psychometrics and this is something that's only been around for yeah, maybe like the last five years So what we're trying to do is to kind of get away from giving people Questionnaires and asking them about their self-perception But we're trying to look at what people actually do out there in the real world So kind of which websites do they visit? What do they do in their social media profile? And what do they spend what kind of stuff do they buy with their credit cards? Or even just what is their phone recording in terms of geolocation and physical activity and We know from research and that we can actually successfully predict someone's psychological trades from something like personal websites from tweets Facebook likes status updates and profile pictures and In a way, it's not very surprising because everything that you do out there Basically tells us a lot about your personal preferences your habits what you do in that your everyday life And how that then translates into something like more stable psychological traits And I just want to give you an example So that's apply magic sauce is an API and that we developed at the psychometric center And it's based on the models that we developed name basically We came up with a name because people asked us so how do you how do you make these predictions? And we're like got a bit sick of it So we're like, oh you just take data you apply a bit of magic sauce and then you have the Psychological profiles, so that's how we came to that name and I just want to show you how it works So how can we get how it can you use it because it's it's free online everybody can use it So how can you get from something like Facebook likes to like a psychological profile? so basically what happens if you go and apply magic sauce calm and You can click on predict my profile, so that's open to everybody. It's absolutely free of charge And then you can donate different types of data, so you can donate your Facebook profile You can donate your Twitter data if you click here and connect with Facebook, and this is my profile now I've all I'm already logged in so I didn't have to put in my login details And so you can see it's connected to Facebook if you click on make a prediction Basically in a few seconds it scrapes your Facebook profile takes your likes takes your status updates and turns it into Psychological profile so you can do that from all the sources that you have or the individual ones and that are available in your Kind of profile, so you can see it predicts stuff like gender, so it's pretty close and for me and that one And age I mean psychological gender somewhere in the middle big five personality traits So this one in that case my Facebook suggests that I'm kind of liberal or autistic I'm a bit more introverted and a bit more laid back and the end-to-end the average So all of you can do that if you just click on apply magic sauce It gives you a description of what your profile means and in terms of your psychology also predicts intelligence a bit above average That's promising life satisfaction a bit lower Not so surprising working as an academic and it kind of basically predicts a whole bunch of other stuff So check it out and really that just takes a few seconds, so you don't have to sit down complete like Question is for half an hour, but really just log in with Facebook and then you get at least a rough idea of what your psychological profile looks like Okay, so the question is how does that work? So what's behind and our prediction? I am engine apply magic sauce, but also other prediction engines So there's IBM stats social that does and pretty much and similar prediction Predictions so it all started and with the my personality Facebook app So my personality was set up by one of my colleagues in Cambridge who didn't have anything to do during his summer in 2007 so he set up this app and that allowed people to take real psychometric tests So they could kind of complete a personality questionnaire IQ questionnaire life satisfaction And then they got immediate responses on there and they get immediate feedback on their responses So they completed a question and right there was feedback and on their personality or whatever they had completed Now when he did that you actually wanted to collect data of maybe a thousand people maybe some of his friends and But people loved the feedback so much that they shared it on Facebook and he ended up collecting a data set of seven million people Completely free of charge simply because people really like to learn about themselves and they like to know themselves And so what we have now is this database that has Psychometric test responses on something like personality values life satisfaction of around seven million Facebook users around the world Now what's amazing about this data set for people who are interested in data is that at the end of the like after people had received feedback They were asked whether they would voluntarily share their Facebook profile information with us and for research purposes And about 50% of people did so so for about three and a half million users We actually have their self perception in terms of psychological characteristics and we also have their Facebook profile data So we know what they liked on Facebook what they post on Facebook We have access to their profiles and pictures and basically their public profile And now this is them like this is the interesting part And I'm not going to go into into details here because I'm sure that pretty much all of you know more about that than I do but basically once you have this behavior on the one hand and you have someone psychological and Characteristics on the other hand you can start building models, right? So whether it's a simple linear aggression or you kind of bet gets more complex and into neural networks or something And basically you can kind of try and take someone's behavior And predict a psychological profile without them having to complete a questionnaire and Like if you want to know more about that the models and feel free to kind of come and see me afterwards But what I want to do is basically show you some of the relationships that we found in the data That really show and it's very obvious and how people of different personalities Different the way that they behave online See, okay, so this is and a word cloud and of the words and status updates So they're most strongly correlated with the personality trait of extroversion So extroverted people are those who kind of love to be social they love to hang out with others They're optimistic and enthusiastic and you can see that in the words, right? So extroverts and talk about parties amazing love weekend tonight And so they seem to be having and a pretty good time If you compare that to the introverted word cloud, which I think most of us will be Probably somewhere in the introverted and cloud here you can see that it's very different So introversion Associated with talking about computers enemy internet reading books And and this is like on a very basic level. This is just counting words, right? So you don't need any rocket science You don't need any complex machine learning algorithms to see that there's something in the way that people behave online That's related to their personality It gets even better So this one so high agreeableness is one of the personality traits that distinguishes between people who care a lot about their social Relationships or trusting or empathetic and kind of warm and welcoming So those people again, this is like it's kind of stereotypical, but it also this is what we find in the data So they talk about family wonderful amazing and beautiful and happy So they're just very grateful in general and now word of warning and the word cloud for the low agreeableness Which is basically people who are more Competitive and more critical looks very very different and this is nothing that we came up with This is just what you see in the data So those are the words that are most strongly current and I'm not going to go through all of them now The pleasure of that but you can see again that it's very obvious how different personalities relate to to online behavior You can do the same thing for likes so just as an example again introversion extroversion because that's Like introverts again talking about computers seems to be a big common theme here So final fantasy battle star Galactica and extroversion those are people who hang out and love to be around other people So they like to meet new people socializing parties. So just just are just Official Facebook pages. So it's not if one of your friends posts a cat video and you're like, yeah I like that. So those are just official pages. So in terms of like, I don't know BBC or CNN Okay, the latest development, which I think is extremely interesting is that you can do Predictions of someone's personality simply based on faces. So the profile pictures that we have available on the end on our in our My personality database and we're used to kind of make predictions from faces of someone's personality And this is basically just the AI Dreaming of faces of introverts and extroverts So those are the faces that the computer predicted to be most introverted and extroverted and again You can see very obvious differences that make a lot of sense. So the introverts have glasses Look a bit more shy and reserved with the extroverts Probably have their hair dyed because it's like much more blonde and then the picture of the introverted ones and also maybe wear contact lenses because they have like blue eyes where introverts have Brown eyes. So again, like whatever kind of digital footprint you take there's a pretty good chance that it's in some way related to something like psychology personality intelligence Okay, now the question is how accurate is it and I don't kind of I don't want to go into too much detail But the the the way that we usually assess the accuracy of a prediction model is we compare the computer-based prediction to the self-perception of the participant and when you kind of look across different personality traits different footprints the Accuracy is usually around a correlation of point five or point six Now the thing is that point five point six is that good is that bad? And it's really difficult to say so what my colleagues did and I think this is actually a very nice way of illustrating the power and Of computer algorithms is they compared it to the judgments of people in our environment So how good are our work colleagues our friends our family members our partners at judging our personality in Comparison to how good the computer is And what this so this is just a Examples for Facebook likes so the computer needs around 10 Facebook pages to be better than someone's work colleague It's about 65 pages to be better than someone's friend About 120 to be better than someone's family member and around 250 to be better than someone's spouse and Now the average number of likes at the time we conducted the study was 230 So the computer is basically better than everybody except kind of a little bit worse than our partner and spouse Which is for me? Basically insane because the computer only has to Facebook likes right and usually you spend a lot of time with your friends a lot of time With your family and your partner so they should technically have a very good idea And with who you are as a person yet the computer is pretty much has pretty much the same accuracy just by looking at your Facebook likes Okay, so now how can we use like these insights digital psychometrics and in action? So what can what are the applications and of being able to predict someone's psychological profile? And the main message is really that I think it helps us to kind of personalize services across the whole board So we can use it for targeted marketing and healthcare and education because the more we know and about the person About their personal needs and preferences the better we will be able and to tailor the services that we offer and to those preferences Okay, so I just want to go very briefly to the first two to give you an idea of how I see digital psychometrics working out and in practice So what we did or like the question that we were interested in it Can we use the knowledge of someone's psychological? Characteristics to increase the effectiveness of digital marketing So that's going back to the to the Trump story where they kind of try to target people based in their personality and Really kind of increase the persuasiveness of their messaging simply by taking these characteristics into account And we did an advertise what we didn't promote Trump and we promoted something that's quite far away An online beauty retailer in the UK and what we did is we simply came up and With a few extroverted messages and a few introverted messages. So you can see the extroverted messages There was always something going on people were kind of having a good time together and when they introverted ads It was like usually one person in a quiet setting Now what we did is we ran actual Facebook campaigns and over the course of seven days Where we targeted introverted extroverted users with these different types of messages So over the course of the seven days we attracted about six million impressions So that's the number of times the ad was shown in Facebook around 10,000 clicks and about 400 purchases on the beauty retailers Webside I just want to give you two metrics So basically what we saw is that when you match the message that you use to promote a product to people's Psychological characteristics. We see higher conversion rates so people purchase more often and they also generate more revenue For the company and this is really simple, right? So it's exactly the same product the only thing that we're changing is actually the way that we communicate and with people based on their Psychological profile now you can do that to kind of promote consumer products You could do the same thing in the context of political campaigns in the context of health care Okay, the second topic that I think is extremely interesting and extremely important these days and is health care and just one example is That we can now predict and whether someone is likely to To develop a depression simply by looking at their smartphone So if we take into account and their activity in terms of where they are how much physical activity there is and how much they sleep How much they interact with other people all stuff that's kind of passively collected on your phone while you carry it around Pretty much 24 hours and a day can tell us whether or not you're more likely than the average person to develop a depression And if you think about that the people who develop a Depression are usually not the ones who would go out and seek help that is actually really useful because we can actively help those people who are in a vulnerable situation and This was a new story that I think is extremely interesting and it very nicely for me kind of shows both the positives like potential but also the danger for abuse and which was like Facebook and was being accused of Doing research on the press team. So people like teens experiencing Anxiety or stress and then being basically being exploited for targeting now if you think about it This is actually an amazing chance. So if Facebook is doing research trying to identify people who are at risk Well, if that information was being used to kind of help those those teenagers who are probably not going to go and see Their parents because they're having a bad time Then on the one hand, that's an amazing opportunity that could actually be used to help those Teenages, but obviously it also has the whole other dark side. We're knowing it like having information On something like that could be abused to exploit weaknesses and people's characters But like for me, it's really when I read this news story I was like well obviously there is potential for abuse But don't kind of say that it's bad in general because it's a technology and if we can help those people the benefits that we could Would be like basically equalling out the potential dangers in my point of view Okay, so now look into the future of digital psychometrics and as all of you know, there's basically more and more data Collected on us every second. So I think the future is really kind of taking People's more stable psychological traits that we can get from something like Facebook profiles the websites that people visit But then combining it and with information about the context that the person is in So kind of really looking at the person at in real time. So what is that? Okay, we know that this person is extroverted But what is he doing right now is in an extroverted situation is it in a good mood? And what does that tell us about how we should communicate with that person? How may be? prone he is to kind of showing a certain type of behavior and the person that I think has very nicely expressed why this is and So important is one of my favorite comedians Louis CK and I'll just let him give you give you the spiel Just the constant nobody takes in life unless it comes through this Yes, like whenever I see a televised event That's a huge like the the Olympics opening ceremony or Times Square at at midnight on New Year's Eve Everybody they see sees of people all looking at it through their phone Like there's explosions and acrobats, but they're looking at it through a little three inch screen like I think if Jesus comes back and Starts telling everyone everything it'll just everybody's just going to be twittering and they won't Really, I am Christ and I have returned. Oh my god. Jesus is right in front of me Yes I think you very nicely summarizes the fact that most of our lives are now mediated by these digital devices So whether it's communicating with our friends or just capturing the moments that are most important to us Most of it is recorded by like a smartphone by wearable devices and this is only going to get more And I think it's on the one hand and this is actually also my my conclusion I mean on the one-handed it's it's extremely exciting that we know so much about people's lives now but also with that great power that we have comes a great responsibility and And I really mean that because I think for a lot of people it's Extremely scary because they don't know what's happening. They don't know how stuff works They don't know what's actually possible And I think it's true for all of us in the room But certainly also people in academia is that we get need to get a lot better openly communicating and transparently Communicating first of all what's possible and then also how the technologies that we develop are going to affect people's lives Because what they hear at the moment is stories like the news story about Trump or the news story about Facebook How those technologies are kind of ruining their lives making them prone to being manipulated and basically posing a huge threat to their lives Now I think what we need to do is basically show them the other side So show them that yes these technologies exist and we're working on them to kind of make them better But actually there's so much potential for kind of helping you make better decisions helping you kind of lead healthy and happy lives And we're not doing that behind the scenes But we actually openly communicating and to the public what's possible and what we're currently working on and I hope that we Can all do to do that together and I think obviously the open-source movement and is one of the movements where we can see that Like at least going in the right direction And this is is my vision for the future that it's kind of people like you and me working together academia working together with industry And making that change happen. Well, thank you very much