Hello everyone and welcome to the 10th and final plenary session of the eighth annual International Conference on Sustainable Development. I'm going to ask our moderator, Phoebe Konduri, professor at the School of Economics at the Athens University of Economics and Business to connect her camera and microphone so that we can start this session the job opportunities and the clean energy Phoebe Konduri. Thank you so much, Shanae. I'm really happy to chair this last plenary of the day. We are going to be talking about job opportunities and clean energy transition and we have representatives from the US, from Asia and from Europe to discuss this very because we all say that we want to become sustainable we want to make the transition to sustainability and this of course means transition to carbon free energy but is it feasible with regards to the job losses that didn't taste does it create new jobs how many of them and how can we make sure that the people in the workforce have the skills to respond to these new jobs. We have three amazing speakers in our panel but I will first take a few minutes to set the scene with regards to the European case study and then I will ask our amazing panel to discuss further their experiences from different continents. Let me share my screen and put the whole sustainability transition as I understand it taking place at least in Europe. I'm going to try to bring together the STGs the 17 sustainable development goals and Agenda 2030 the European Green Deal and the lately enhanced EU multi-annual financial framework and the EU recovery plan. I always start my speeches these days presenting this sketch with the three big tsunamis that we are facing currently the COVID pandemic that is session the economic recession that comes derives from the pandemic and of course climate change and we all know that climate is an emergency and we need to try to limit it to below 1.5 Celsius increase beyond which there is extreme weather events and poverty for hundreds of millions of people with significantly increase. The European Commission with its European Green Deal has committed to carbon neutrality by 2050 this means that we need a global reduction target of at least 68% by 2030. A few days ago the president of the European Commission proposed to increase the 2030 ambition for reduction in emissions from 40% to at least 55% and this is a huge step forward because as we know very few countries are able at the moment to implement STG 13 which concerns climate action and if you see the second map on my slides the situation does not look anymore promising by 2030. So in 2015 we had the 17 sustainable development goals in a few months later we have the signature of the Paris Agreement and since then United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network this huge global network that tries to mobilize sustainability transition is issuing the its dashboard and index that shows the progress of each and every country in the world with regards to the achievement of the SDGs. So not only does the SDGs give us our blueprint for the sustainability transition but it also monitors our progress with regards to it. In 2018 IPCC tells us that we need to limit the increase in temperature not just by two degrees but 1.5 degrees which effectively implies zero net emissions by 2050 and in 2019 we have the six major transformations to achieve the SDGs which are a very convenient way to operationalize the SDGs mapping the why governments are organized in terms of implementing the 17 SDGs. 17 is too big of a number for any government to handle implementation is much easier using these six transformation education health energy decarbonization sustainable management of land water and ocean sustainable cities and digital revolution for sustainable development it is interesting that the different transformation have different requirements and specificities with regards to financing this transition we may come back to this a bit later. December 2019 we have the European Green Deal we know that this is about 2050 decarbonization, carbon neutral Europe by 2050, clean tech leadership by Europe and leaving no one behind in just transition an inclusive transition and of course then we had the coronavirus and we know the flattening the prevention curve, the microeconomic recession curve and what was important here is to try to avoid having the pandemic turning to a major economic and financial crisis that will long outlast the health crisis and this meant keeping the workforce into place channeling financial support from the government to the vulnerable safeguarding SMEs against bankruptcy support the financial system as non-performing loans mount and develop develop fiscal packages comparable to the crisis related loss of the GTP which of course will have to be financed by national debt. Many international and multilateral organizations have put together a recovery plan the European Commission did the same and we have our recovery plan which was 750 billion and enhanced as the 21-27 multi-annual financial framework of the European Green Deal what is interesting is that the money from the recovery plan have to be 30% climate mainstream and also digital mainstream so climate and digitalizing climate adaptation and mitigation and digitalization are our major axis of allocating the recovery fund money and based on the need to bring all these together we've at UNSDSN put together senior working group for the energy transition trying to identify pathways that will allow us to allocate the recovery fund budget the European Green Deal budget and of course the enhanced MFF budget according to the needs of each country and the needs of each country are identified by the technological and policy pathways that we are putting together for climate mitigation and adaptation across EU member states and these technological and policy pathways aim to the joint implementation of the European Green Deal and then 17 sustainable development goals that are based on the European semester process country specific recommendations supported of course by the financial portfolios from the budget of the European Green Deal the EU MFF and the recovery plan the the the this exercise is developed for member states politicians and decision made makers in order to facilitate identification and absorption of the funds at national level and create cross-country alliances for a sustainable recovery but also facilitate public private sector partnership in order to mobilize private resources for the implementation of the European Green Deal and at the end of the day create a climate pack manifesto between the policy makers the politicians the business the financial sector and civil society in order to implement this transition it is very important that the European Green Deal aspires to be financed partly 50% by the budget of the EU and the income from ETS emission strategy system but the other half of the one trillion has to come from mobilizing private resources in in the days of a pandemic when everything needs to be financed by public debt it is important for the public sector to come in to achieve some some rebooting of the economy by big infrastructure projects and create a level of certainty in the economy in order to attract the interest of the private sector to come in and invest the pandemic has created such a big economic uncertainty that it is almost impossible to convince the private sector to come in what we need now after so many crises the financial crisis the climate crisis the covid crisis is a fundamental transformation of economic social and financial systems that will trigger exponential change in strengthening our social economic health and environmental resilience and we need big thinking and big changes we need systems innovation we need top-down mobilization like the climate loan and of course our national energy climate plans which is if you look at them consistently and additively it is obvious that the EU needs to raise to climate ambition and it is obvious that some countries need more incentivization towards embarking on a pathway towards a climate neutral economy by 2050 but we also need bottom-up mobilization and here is where the climate part of the european commission is coming in uses systems innovation approach and co-design with all the stakeholders of the future pathways it is indeed important to realize that although global power demand will grow we have on the supply side the renewables consistently cheaper than fossil fuels energy storage installations increasing exponentially strong energy efficiency improvements large-scale carbon capture and transition to circular economy this means that we have a immobilizing situation towards a green recovery and it is one argument that the energy sector needs to kickstart the green recovery after the pandemic and this is what we are going to talk about in this planning area we need an ambitious agenda set for job creation and climate change goals and we need the public sector leadership on investing in clean energy i'm wrapping up in one minute so it is very important to understand what is the relation between job space green recovery what is the relation between the jobs that are created during a transition to a carbon neutral economy and the jobs that are lost due to facing our fossil fuel there are some reports the wealth employment social outlook that indicates that the transition to a sustainable economy in the energy sector results in a creation of 24 million jobs globally while only six million jobs will be lost and we have a net increase of 18 million according to this report the net increase in europe will be about two million however we have the world experts which is our first speaker doing that the net effect on jobs from a green recovery is much bigger he's talking about 160 million jobs to be created globally and four millions to be lost in fossil fuel industry and he's also pointing to the need to for investing in capacity building for the existing workforce in order to become able to respond to the new challenges of the new sustainability transition so on this note i will stop talking and i will bring in the true expert on the subject professor um uh polling who has been working on this area for many years and has produced extremely interesting results professor robert polling is a distinguished university professor of economics and coordinator of the political economy research institute at the universities of massachusetts answer professor calling polling please come in thank you uh and thank you very much for inviting me to participate so i'm going to focus uh primarily on the um how we do the estimate and thank you feeby for uh mentioning the article that i wrote uh some months ago uh with a much higher uh rough estimate of the employment opportunities generated by a clean energy transformation than was uh estimated in the ilo study that you were referring to okay so uh my first uh slide if you'll change it uh alana um is what what you're looking at is just some estimates that i've done uh over the past several years with co-workers which shows um the uh difference differentiation in the job creation uh through investing in a clean energy uh infrastructure versus maintaining a fossil fuel energy infrastructure and the first set of numbers and i hope you can see them decently uh show us figures for uh six countries that all of which are fossil fuel producers right now major fossil fuel producers brazil china india indonesia south africa and the us and if you can see just uh focus on the for right column uh for a minute what we observe in going from country to country is that investing in building the clean energy infrastructure generates about two to three times more jobs per dollar of expenditure in all the countries we've looked at there is variation as you'll see uh but uh the clean energy uh investments are job generators relative to investing in the fossil fuel economy and then the second uh set of numbers the smaller three countries uh germany south korea and spain um emphasize a critical or related point is that for countries such as germany south korea and spain that are effectively 100 percent or close to 100 percent energy importers that job creation of course is a total benefit and so the transition from a energy infrastructure uh existing in which you have to rely on imports to one in which you can generate uh your energy primarily through domestic resources is a boom into a major uh expansion of job opportunities okay so let's switch to the next slide and uh now i'm going to focus on the methodological issues so the question is okay you see my numbers in which we say we're going to create two to three times more jobs per dollar or whatever your money unit is of expenditure um how do i know that and for that matter fee be referred to my article um in which i basically claim that the net job creation was you know in the range of 160 million jobs as opposed to uh 30 million jobs that the ilo came up with well why should you believe me why do i think my numbers are any good okay let me explain my methodology very straightforward the basic tool is the input output tables which are available for all almost all countries a lot of regions i do work with us states and we we generate numbers for us states as well and these uh tables are based the the raw materials are based on enterprise surveys of how business operations work in other words you ask entities businesses public sector enterprises um what do you do when you walk into work every day or people aren't walking in now but generally what what makes your enterprise go you know how much do you spend on labor and how much do you spend on everything else in other words buildings machines energy inputs land okay and that's basically how you construct an input output table and you can go from relatively uh low levels of specificity to very highly specified models such as those for the us which includes 546 activities in which we describe what goes on inside the enterprise now from those data um we're able to generate what we can call employment to output ratios so we know what is getting produced in let's say a car manufacturer a glass manufacturer retrofitting buildings we know what the final product is the output and what we can also discern from the data are how much employment uh takes place to produce a car window or to produce a a clean retrofitted building or to raise public transportation levels so that's what we call an employment output ratio and uh that the way that we uh specify that and in the table i showed you the first table it was the number of jobs that get created by spending one million dollars and of course we can change the units money units but it's basically the number of jobs created for a given amount of spending okay so that's our basic measure employment to output and uh what we can also observe within the input output tables are three categories three channels through which jobs get created and we call them direct jobs indirect jobs and induced jobs the direct jobs are the jobs generated within the activity itself so in other words if we are retrofitting a building to make it more energy efficient how many people show up at the building to put in the new windows to put in the insulation uh to improve the uh caulking and the doors if we're if we're putting solar panels on rooftops how many people are required and and so forth so that is the so-called direct jobs now indirect jobs are the jobs along the supply chain if we are installing new windows in a building um who produce those uh windows in the first place and how did the windows get from the manufacturer to uh the the building that is putting in the new windows or to the car manufacturer that's what we call indirect jobs and those are the two main important categories of job creation that we measure the third category is called induced jobs those are the standard multiplier effects that you learn about in intro to macroeconomics in other words when people are hired into the new direct jobs and the new indirect jobs that means they're getting wages and they have money in their pockets they spend the money and that their expenditures will in turn create these multiplier effects uh that will create more jobs and that's what we call the induced effects within uh the input output model so this is the three ways through which jobs get created okay so now the next slide okay um um yeah okay so uh why do we get differences why would we get two to three times more jobs in the united states uh for uh producing a clean energy uh investment program versus maintaining the fossil fuel infrastructure so there's three sources of these differences and it's very straightforward once you think about it one is what we call labor intensity so in other words if we're going to retrofit a building are we're going to put solar panels on roofs or we're going to build a solar installation uh utility scale solar installation how many people do you need to do the work okay how many people do you need to do the work relative to how much are you going to spend on machines buildings land and energy and that's our standard measure of what we call labor intensity the higher the percentage of labor inputs labor intensity the more jobs you get secondly compensation how much are you going to pay the workers so if you pay a worker a hundred thousand dollars uh for uh to perform a given task um you're going to have fewer jobs available than if you're paying people fifty thousand dollars so compensation is the second consideration and the third if we're thinking about job creation in a given country would be domestic content so if we're putting solar panels on roofs how many how much manufacturing is being done within say my country the united states um how much of the delivery is taking place within the united states and the installation versus if we are purchasing um oil from canada or mexico or saudi arabia or venezuela uh how much of all of that is being imported versus how much is being done domestically and so those would be the three considerations and those will always be the three considerations and that's it it's a very simple set of of variables here note there is nothing about quote green jobs per se it's about labor intensity compensation and domestic content and once we can identify relative labor intensities compensation levels and domestic content we know how many jobs you're going to get through a green investment activity a clean energy investment activity versus a fossil fuel activity we don't have to define green jobs per se as long as we can define the activities within the input output model okay next slide uh okay uh yes so the finally i want to end with uh i i express things in very simple terms and the basic framework is simple and it works and i'd say it's robust i've used it over and over again in many countries uh people have tried have criticized it and i think we've defended it quite well but let me uh complicate the story a little bit as in terms of closing first when i say we're investing in clean energy um that's conceptually pretty straightforward we want to do things that will get us to a net zero global economy um but uh specifically within the out input output model there isn't a category that says clean energy uh so we have to uh construct that we have to do it synthetically we have to define what we mean and we have to assign relative weights to various activities so i've given you examples like building retrofits or public transportation or solar energy or wind energy and when we talk about solar energy do we mean rooftop installations or do we mean utility scale and so all of those things need to be specified within the input output model each of those activities and then we have to say well what proportion if we're spending a trillion dollars what proportion of the trillion dollars will go to solar what proportion will go to wind what proportion will go to building retrofits electric vehicles and so forth that's the first big thing that you need to work on secondly the input output model is what we call a static model it is a snapshot of the economy at a moment in time and so we're looking and it's a very good snapshot they're they're reliable numbers because they're based on pretty well worked out industrial surveys but that's the snapshot and we're talking about a clean energy transition over the next decade to get to roughly a 50 percent emission reduction and a net zero by 2050 so we have to incorporate changes over time and how we do that is something that you know we can debate uh you can do it in various ways but we do have to take account of that because clearly labor productivity over time is going to improve and that means that we will need fewer workers in 2045 than we need in 2020 and then the third and critical factor is okay we're talking about so far jobs jobs jobs numbers of jobs but what about these jobs are they good jobs and we talked briefly about compensation levels generally speaking the compensation levels in the fossil fuel economy today are better than the job than the compensation levels in the clean energy economy so we want to talk about improving job quality and then Phoebe mentioned we what about are people are people ready to take these jobs are they well qualified so we have to look at the workforce composition whether people are trained and to get into these jobs and to the extent they're not we need to improve it and then finally we need to look at who is getting these jobs generally speaking these jobs are are performed right now made now by males men and in the united states specifically white males overwhelmingly and so we have to think about ways to expand access to make these jobs equally available to all sectors of the society thank you very much it's very clear and a very useful methodology indeed i am trying to use it and not just your results but the methodology as a whole for this project that we have on mapping the effects of the transition to sustainability in Europe in Europe and the implementation of the european green deal i wanted to ask how do you handle the for example the future jobs that are not on table right now for example the european commission announced that after 2030 they want to move towards a hydrogen economy how how do you deal with that i mean how can you incorporate in your analysis a future estimates of a hydrogen based economy when we don't have enough information today for that well we do have some information so we do you know we can look at basically the uh technical research the literature on what what is the production methods for undertaking hydrogen waste energy just like we would do for solar energy or wind energy or coal um now it's more speculative of course the fact that we don't have a mature industry means that the production methods are likely to change more rapidly but we go with what we know and then we specify within the input output model what we know about uh existing production yeah obviously and uh i have questions from the audience that are also very interesting and i have the same question in my mind uh obviously uh the transition to clean energy is one major issue in the sustainability transition but the sustainability transition also concerns conserving ecosystem services uh concerns um the transition to circular economy which is supposed to be a big part of the sustainability transition cancelling out pollution and keeping resources in constant use so how do you deal holistically with these issues not just the carbonization but also the conservation aspect of the sustainability transition basically it's the same technique um and i actually have been modeling uh issues around regenerative agriculture and land conservation and reforestation and you know the technical again uh once we know what it takes to get people to do these jobs and they are activities and you can assign it within the input output model you can get job creation and of course by the way these active regenerative agriculture is hugely labor intensive so if you want to create a lot of jobs quickly uh that's a much faster way than say uh some most of the clean energy at other activities yes and actually we tried to uh map ecosystem services using of water food energy nexus using input output table in the way you're proposing your methodology and i think it works and that's why i think your methodology is holistic and and very very very useful uh rob uh thank you very much i in the interest of time i need to move to our second speaker who comes uh from europe uh dr mirko armiento uh he is a senior researcher at nl foundation and will give us uh his experience on jobs and job creation and energy transition mirko the floor is hello can you hear me yes very well if you want to share your slides please yes yes i'm doing okay so thank you very much first of all let me thanks sds sam um for for this invitation for inviting a foundation and also today is a great day because uh we just announced a new partnership with sds sam for providing research activities in particular for the implementation of the european green deal by applying the six transformation you would just mentioned before maybe and but apart from that today i'm here uh to present the results of a study that we uh undertook together with the uroelectric uh cambridge econometrics and the guide house uh and we presented the this summer the study is called equality in shaping an inclusive energy transition and the research question was how can uh can we assess the effect of the carbonization policies on on inequality in particular uh we also assess the effect on economy and on jobs but the main uh focus was inequality because it's uh together with climate change one of the the most crucial issues i think that we should address uh nowadays uh together with covid probably um of course but um uh so we basically uh selected the six key uh decarbonization policies uh this decarbonization policies the decarbonization policy that aim that can allow us to uh reach the target of the to achieve the target of the uh 95 percent of co2 reduction by 2015 in europe and uh we see uh what happens in terms of inequality uh in the year 28 uh these results also helped us to select some best practices and some case studies and we also were was possible to to have some mitigation policies some policy option that uh if combined can also allow us to have uh an inclusive energy transition so um just to go a bit more into detail uh here you can see in these slides these are the six decarbonization policies that we uh considered in our modeling called E3ME it's the Cambridge econometrics modeling uh it's also used widely by the european commission and basically uh the the the scenario the individual policy scenario like this so carbon pricing taxation on energy vector the subsidies for uh low carbon technologies the phase out of fossil fuel support the emission performance standards and the measures to increase energy efficiency as you can see from these graphs which represent the gene index variation for reach of this individual scenario uh in uh in the year and the considered year uh you can see that some policies are regressive if taken individually and some others are more progressive it's the case for instance of carbon pricing of taxation when when we mean regressive we mean that the effect uh i mean the costs are are beared by uh are beared by the the lowest uh income households and then it could be uh i mean uh impact negatively on them uh and progressive we mean the opposite uh then for instance is the case of more progressive measures such as the energy efficiency measures or the subsidies for low carbon technology but uh what's most important is that this was the starting point but of course uh in order to achieve an objective you need to implement all this policy together you don't implement just one second policies and that's uh that's uh of course when you implement a package you have multiple effects overlapping on policies and effects then the the things is a bit more complicated and we will so basically with the climate policies if there is no policy action you so you don't act proactively uh so there is no policy maybe don't act proactively in advance then you will have uh regressive effects then the population probably and and there will be no social acceptance and we saw this already in europe with the g-region movements and other movements that were opposing not to climate change but to the fact they they would pay much more than others and but it's possible to to avoid that as as we will show you in a few in a few moments so starting from that we started to select and investigate what were the the best let's say case studies around the world and the best policies that can act to mitigate this impact and we find out that in europe for instance since nineties in sweden there was uh uh proposed that uh an implement in a reduction of vat or taxes on electricity bills and this also helped to counter the regressive effects of specific environmental taxes then this can be an idea then uh in italy uh very recently uh the the government implemented a target that supports a scheme for energy efficiency to obtain it's possible to obtain 110 percent tax refund for investing in energy efficiency measures and also we'd know up from cost for the lowest income households in scotland there were several successful job retaining program for people employed in fossil fuel sector but at the same time it's not just europe in in north america we have for instance in canada the lump sum transfer that were introduced to upset the increased households cost uh specifically coming from carbon pricing and in california we had the compensation part so these are all very best practices and starting from this we uh considered the the different criteria among them simplicity effectiveness specifically and deployability into the u we selected four key mitigating policy options that can help also to uh balance much more the decarbonization policies that i mentioned at the beginning then we selected the lump sum transfer for instance if we redistribute the revenues through lump sum transfer or at the same time with the same amount of money we lower vat or taxes on electricity this can really help a lot then uh if we implement targeted energy efficiency measure specifically with no up from cost uh if of course it's very important also to have a proper and functioning job retaining program to take a bit unemployment in the most affected industry but at the same time it's also important funding subsidies for the most innovative low-carbon technologies uh for instance via general taxation or using as well the carbon revenues so if we all consider combine this policy option together with the the the climate policies the six let's say selected climate policy we see that the effort on on a genie index variation will be completely different uh in the red area here in this graph you can see that if we if there is no proactive let's say policy making uh so with the simple standard revenue balancing or without revenue balancing you will have a regressive effect then it means that who will be the cost it will be the lowest income household but if we implement this for policy option with i mean recycling the revenues coming for instance for taxation analysis vector or carbon pricing and you use lump sum transfer or the other measure i i mentioned just before uh that the effect will be much progressive as you can see for instance in 2040 we estimated that there will be less 1.5 percent of the gene index variation and this for gene index it's it's it's a lot let's say uh we also introduced the sensitivity analysis in order to assess what will be the effect of covid and of course it will be a negative effect on the combined policy package but the effect won't be so large i mean it's in terms of 0.05 percent the difference uh so just to the last few slides uh you we also assess what will be the effect of this combined policy package on GDP and unemployment and as you can see from this graph our morning we say that it would be positive so I agree completely with professor Paul in that energy transition will create a lot of jobs and also will push GDP and finally this is my last slide we'll have a progressive effect all over Europe so with particularly as you can see from this graph uh some areas such as central and eastern Europe or southern Europe that are some somehow most more peripheral economy they have more peripheral economies can benefit the most from this uh from this policy policymaking uh options implemented so uh we conclude saying that this is valid for Europe of course but I think can be can be replicated a similar study for other in other parts of the world and I guess the results can be very similar or at least comparable in in terms of what are the takeaways so for me the main takeaways of this study was that if we act proactively uh and the policy making policies are implemented uh in advance then we can take all both the issues of inequalities and climate change at the same time and we can address it effectively so thank you very much for thank you very much this is a very interesting fact we definitely integrated in the implementation of the Green Deal project that we are doing currently and we are definitely working with then a foundation for that as well so thank you very much for your clear presentation I have an interesting question for the audience I know it's um uh at the moment too much to ask but I will uh pose it to you lately we've been talking a lot about uh lifestyle dysfunction and happiness and discussing that GDP is not an adequate measure of development and growth and the question is is it about time to integrate uh life satisfaction subjective well-being into the measurements of job creation and the effects on employment well you asked the question to the right person because actually I know an alternative to GDP and uh well it was a monitor indicator but not with subjective well-being but that was very interesting in reading the literature and I think yeah the time is coming because I mean also after this last crisis global crisis that is affecting us so I think it's always more and more important so of course I am a big fan of of modifying GDP because as or at least in in finding alternative measures to compare GDP with this is this is very important because it can really tell us what what can I mean how how we are how how what is the level of the well-being of our society so of course for me these things especially if related to the to the jobs satisfaction and with this big change that is I mean happening right now with smart working and so on I think this will be a question for thoughts for the future thank you very much Mirko I have to it's there's never enough time there's never enough time uh I need to move to our last speaker uh who is a professor Hyunshun Cheon president of the korean energy economics institute we are very happy to have you with us uh please uh professor jung the floor is yours thank you professor pb let me explain our characteristic energy sector first korea energy sector is characterized by the dominance of fossil fuel which account for 83 percent of total primary energy supply strong dependence on energy import at 84 percent of total primary energy supply and also dominance of industrial energy use at 55 percent of total final consumption in 2017 korea government is committed to advance the country's energy transitions by increasing the share of renewable electricity to 20 percent in 2030 and 30 to 35 percent in 2040 to gradually phase out coal and nuclear from the energy mix while significantly improving energy efficiency another party agreement korea is committed to limit is greenhouse gas emissions to 536 million ton equivalent uh next slide please thank you as you can see the slide to reach the target korea must overcome the past past dependence problems reaching the ambitious target will require korea to enhance decarbonization effort across all energy sectors address regulatory and institutional barriers introduce flexible market designs make use of advanced technology and innovative capacity next slide please as you can see we have uh corona 19 virus uh crisis so which impact i would like talking about the impact of covid 19 on korean economies next slide please thank you covid 19 has a negative impact on korean economy but its impact is small compared to other countries according according to the oecd economic survey korea is experiencing the soar lowest recession among oecd countries the project contradictions in gdp this year is milder than other oecd countries next slide please this slide uh show the impact of covid 19 on the total primary energy supply in korea the total primary energy supply is expected to fall by 1.4 percent to 299 million ton oil equivalent in this year from the previous years as you can see there are big uh decrease in oil and coal in 2019 and this year next slide please and also we have some impact on uh final energy consumptions the final energy consumption is also expected to fall by 1.3 percent to 228 million to in this year from the previous years as you can see there is a big uh decrease in oil and also transportations next slide please thank you covid 19 and drop in oil price have different impact on energy industry by energy source decreasing demand for petroleum product city gas and electricity will reduce the sale of industries meanwhile the impact of covid 19 on the low carbon industry like as renewable energy efficiency are expected to be limited next slide please now i'm going to explain the korean new deal including korean deal briefly next slide please with regard to green economy the government recognized the impact of climate change on the spread of disease seeing how fast covid 19 has transmitted throughout the world new jobs are expected to increase along with demand for workers with new skill and technology but there would also be jobs no longer needed and a falling demand for low-scale workers the korean government announced korean new deal including green new deal in july this year as part of its post-covid 19 recovery package which is a significant step increase along the path of korean energy transitions next slide please thank you the goal of korean new deal is transform the economy from fast follow to leader from carbon dependent economy to green economy with the society going to more inclusive one there are two plus one policy these are new deal and green new deal and stronger safety net which will be implemented with strong financial support and improved regulation to promote the private sector next slide please so as you can see there are key project by the three different years for example digital new deal has three key projects like s data dam ai smart health care for green new deal has also three different key project such as green new green remodeling green energy and also the last one is echo vehicles next slide please so actually i don't have enough time so i'm gonna briefly explain about the key project of green new deal so as you can see that there are eight green new deal and also the government to choose three major project out of eight green new deal project and also the government has investment plan the government who has planned to invest 61 billion u.s. dollar will be invested until 2025 and we estimate 60 659 000 new jobs will be created and also we count which means 10.7 jobs per injection of 1 billion u.s. dollar next slide please i'm gonna briefly explain about the one by one for major project of green new deal the first one is green remodeling the total of 3.1 trillion won will be invested by 2022 creating 78 000 new jobs and by 2025 a total of 5.4 trillion won will be invested also we expected to creating 124 000 new jobs so green remodeling has different projects like as public dental homes and daycare centers and recreation facility so we try to make more energy efficiency and also we try to construct new and also we do other things next slide please oh previous one the green energy one thank you so the second major project of green new deal is green energy the total of 4.5 trillion won will be invested by 2022 creating 16 000 new jobs and by 2025 a total of 11.3 trillion won will be invested we also expecting a new job of 38 000 so green energy has wind power solar power hydrogen economy and also the green energy support transition from fossil fuel generation to renewable energy generation next one please next slide please the last third one of major project of green new deal is eco-friendly vehicle so as you can see the korean government has planned to increase the number of electric car hydrogen fuel cell car and also we try to promote scraping of old diesel vehicle including construction vehicle and farm machines also we try to promote replacing with energy vessel and use a diesel particular a filter for public vessels next one please so i'm going to briefly explain about the greenhouse gas emission target in korea so as you can see the previously our target was reduced the greenhouse gas emission by 37 percent compared by ba u but we slightly changed the slightly changed the portion of domestic mitigation portion as you can see we tried to reduce the portion of international offset and last year the end december so we changed the target like as from relative target to absolute target so right now the korean greenhouse gas emission deduction target is 24 to 4 percent by 2030 compared to 2017 emission levels next one please this is my last slide to get a target the government has many different measures and plans for example i would like to explain about the transportation the korea government announced a revision to the standard for greenhouse gas emission from vehicle and mileage to the defect from 2030 car will be required to emit 70 gram of greenhouse gas emission per kilometer lower from current 97 gram per kilometer and have better mileage 33 kilometer per liter of fuel longer than current 24 kilometer per liter so there are many other measures and some plan and strategies so if we have some more questions please let me know so actually this is my presentation for the korean new deal and also greenhouse gas emission target thank you very much thank you very much very informative because it is not europeans are very familiar with and we are excited to hear about green deals in Asia in the US that are important and i say that as a response to one of the questions which says that it appears that green deals are localized they are not green deals are about international trade and cooperation and competitive advantage and they they are focused on on their success is based on international trade efficient international trade so it seems to me that the korean green deal is consistent with what is going on in the US and in in Europe you are focusing on decarbonization on circular economy immobility energy efficiency is circular economy part of the picture and in order to devise your green deal do you take as an example maybe the european green deal that there was the one that was the first one on table uh how did you use the the european experience in what you've put together group is a pb uh that is a very important questions and very good comment but as you may know our korean green deal announced this july so that means it only have two months so we are still studying and working on how can we make korean new deal to success and also our war is we try to transform our society to low carbon society so we're studying about or benchmarking to european new deal and also the i understand the usa case also based uh thinking about the american style of new deal so we make a benchmarking and compare together and then each country has their own characteristic of new deal so we try to make successful and sustainable to our society to low carbon so please wait more and we will study and then uh sharing about our information thank you so much it is so important that each and every continent each and every country have their green deals so that they are no um uh border issues with regards to imports and exports with regards to importing uh fossil fuel high content uh imports and exporting low fossil fuel content so it what is important is to have a global climate pack and this is what president magro is trying to put together so that everybody all stakeholders in each and every state really commit to their signature in the sustainable development goals and agenda 2030 which has been signed by 193 uh states and it's our um global agenda so uh thank uh thank you to a big thanks to all uh three speakers uh the methodological introduction by rob uh the um nice european project european analysis by mikro and you uh johnson uh bringing together the asian experience has been a very very interesting and very promising for the global transition what i want to reemphasize is that in this transition we uh need to make sure that we uh keep everybody involved it has to be in just transition we can leave no one behind and i think the biggest challenge is not to become greener the biggest challenge is to be able to provide capacity building for our workforce in order to keep uh synchronize in order to synchronize with the incredible incredible pace of technological advancements i am worried that this fourth industrial revolution will be a huge challenge on our workforce and our um and the way we are gonna try to handle the synchronization of our education and capacity building and skill provision with the advancements in technology will be one major uh future challenge thank you all i hope you enjoyed the session as much as i did thank you thank you


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So with open world games, one of the many questions we see people have is, how big will the explorable map be? Well today guys, I have the answer for you in regards to Biomutant, and we also compare to other popular open world games. How's it going guys, my name's DPJ and if you enjoyed the video leaving a like really helps out, and if you're new around here and want to see more Biomutant, be sure to subscribe. So Biomutant is just around the corner, it releases on May 25th, and it's been pretty hyped up. It is a game which offers many many things from a deep character class and customisation system to an incredible crafting system and so much more, which you can take into the very populated world full of secrets and side quests to do. The game for sure looks great, I don't think anyone watching this will disagree with that. But a question I myself once had and I'm seeing it every day from you guys is, how big is the explorable map going to be within Biomutant? So after a bit of research people, I actually found many official sources stating the answer, and also found a direct interview with THQ Nordic who also gave out map size details. So the map will be 8x8km, so basically it's 64km squared by my understanding, which I will state is nowhere near the biggest map we have seen within open world games, but it's far from the smallest as well. But to give you guys a kind of understanding to this map size, a few maps around the same size are Red Dead Redemption 2, which comes in at a little bigger with 75km, The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild is said to be 74km, Ark Survival Evolved, the centre map is around 70km, Player Unknown's Battleground is the same size, which we see within Biomutant at 64km, So is Planet's Side 2, Far Cry 5 is slightly smaller at 60km, Watch Dogs 2 is 56km, Fallout 7 is 41km, It's also bigger than Red Dead 1's map, Skyrims, GTA San Andreas and even Horizon Zero Dawn. Now the thing I will state is, none of these maps felt small to me when I was playing them games, so I feel what we get with Biomutant, which I will state is still considered small when compared to other open world games, I feel with a few levels to the map in terms of being able to swim down, finding cave systems, and also in a few instances being able to fly using high balloons and a few other things, plus with how filled the world does seem to be, with the many instances that NPCs you can find, side quests here and everywhere, I don't actually feel the size of it will be noticed that much, even though like I said, 64km squared isn't too bad, it's actually quite a decent size, and because there's actually no word on fast travel points, and because there's no words on vehicles where you can move around faster, yes there's tames, but other than that, I mean you're running from one side to the other, so 64km squared is plenty people, and again like I said, when it's filled with many many things to do, it will seem so much bigger, anyway, and also to mention with the many certain areas of Biomutant which require you to level up certain aspects of your class to even explore these areas, there will be a lot to do and learn here which is great, but yeah guys I hope this video has answered any questions you may have about the size of the map, I will link a great reddit post which documents many open worlds and their sizes, that will be linked below, but on that note guys the end of the video has arrived, if you enjoyed it even a like really helps out, if you're new around here and want to see more Biomutant be sure to subscribe, and if you never want to miss a video I upload content notifications on by hitting that bell button, but guys thanks as always for stopping by and hopefully I will see you on that next one


Hey, Aloha and welcome to Stan Energy Man here on Think Tech Hawaii. Stan Osserman, the one and only from Kailua, as obtrusive and obnoxious as I can be on any given day. I will probably maximize that today. I've already started off with a good email, but I'm probably going to pay for later. Anyway, today's show is really important. I can't overemphasize the importance and really pertinent to what's going on today. And I want to start off by saying there's a thing that I have from my flying background called a PIO, pilot induced oscillation. And it happens when you're flying along, especially when you're getting close to landing, and you're kind of on the edge of the envelope where your airplane's not all that stable. And you put in a flight control thing, it doesn't do what you want it to do, so you put in a little bit more, and then all of a sudden it takes hold, and then you overcorrect, and then you undercorrect, and you overcorrect, and pretty soon your airplane is doing this. Well, inflation is kind of that going on in your economy. So I've got my friend Dan Gowan here who happens to know quite a bit about economics and oil prices and bonds and markets and the software that controls what they do together. And he's going to try and make this something that we all understand. And it's really tied to energy because energy is tied to so much of what goes into your economy. The manufacturing, the resourcing of raw materials, the transportation of raw materials, the transportation of finished products, and even just going to the market to pick up your finished materials. They all require fuel, and they all require energy to manufacture or to move. So energy plays a huge role in potentially huge role in inflation. So Dan, take it away. Thank you, Stan. If I can get slide number one, please. The reason why Stan had me give this talk is one of my security clearance is I'm treasury certified, so I'm one of the few people that kind of qualified to even talk about this subject. I've got some intimate knowledge into the treasurer's computer system, the Fed reserve, so I have a good idea how a lot of it works, and I'm going to try to keep this as simple as I can and try to explain to people how it works. So can I get slide number two, please? Okay, what this is from, this is from Star Trek. It says season three, episode 17. So it's an original series, that which survives. Now I'm not going to go into the complete story. You want to go watch that version of Star Trek? It's a good story. Go watch it. Easy enough to find somebody where you can get online on the internet. Anyway, what the basic story is, an alien has sabotaged the ship and has burned the fuel regulator to the engine wide open. So the engine is uncontrollable and the speeds are getting faster, faster, faster. Now with Spock and the actor you see right there, that is actually James Duhan, which plays Lieutenant Commander Montgomery Scott. And what Spock has proposed is that Scotty insert a magnetic probe into the flow of fuel going into the engine. Now most of the public doesn't under one other really comprehend this, but for an engineer scientist, this image right here is absolutely terrifying. And here's the reason why. Imagine a four megaton hydrogen bomb, multiply that by a thousand. That's what's going into this engine every second. And this guy is going to stick his hand in. Okay. So that's why this is terrifying. Now, their choices are simply this. One, if they do nothing, some wide around work 15, the ship explodes, goes up like a supernova. Now he could risk cutting off that fuel supply. But just by doing that, he could risk blowing the ship up too. So either way, it's a game. And I go to slide number three. Okay. What there you've got. Notice the title says further reserved now. Now, what do you've got there on top that notes you have there on top? This is the United States bank note. No, it has the red treasury mark. That's an actual certified currency as defined according to the Constitution United States. What I'm going to tell you has to do with the legal distinction. Now, when it comes to trading securities on electronic formats, those securities could those securities either have to be bonds or stocks, they have to be certified securities. In other words, legally, because the Constitution and how it how it strictly defines currency, what money is in the United States, that we're not actually able to trade that top note on any electronic exchange. So you have to use that bottom thing. Now, on the top there says a Federal Reserve note. Technically, what a Federal Reserve note is, it's actually a bond. It's a bond. It's what they call zero coupon bond. It's a bond that pays no interest is what it does. Okay. But the point is I can trade that bond for other bonds. And it's important to understand that concept. Legally, that's the only thing that can be traded on electronic exchanges are those bonds and stocks that you cannot trade currency. And it has to do it because the Constitution is pretty strict on this subject, but they consider money. Okay. Can I go to slide number four, please? Okay. What's on that picture right there? That happened February 14, 1945. The gentleman in the center there that is King Abdul Aziz Saud of Saudi Arabia, to the right there that is President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, they're on board the USS Quincy on the Red Sea. That right there is the birth of the Petrodollar. What happened was these two major powers who are both those countries that, well, even today, they export large quantities of oil into the international market. What they decided to do is price all oil in dollars. Okay. Which really means that that oil is going to be priced in essentially US government bonds. Okay. Now this, as far as oil being priced in dollars, that has been true since 1945 all the way up until the year 2018. Something, I'll just keep this in back in mind, something happened in 2018 was rather important. And that was the first time oil was priced in non-dollars happened in, was March 26, 2018, Shanghai, China, it was priced in Yan, and that was between Iran and China. And today we have four countries that price oil in non-dollars and that happens to be Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Oman. Oman joined this group last week. Right. Not only that, but if you go to Russia, try to buy natural gas or oil from the Russians, they'll make you convert that into either rubles, euros, or Chinese one. They will not accept dollars for their hydrocars. That's important to remember about. Can I go to slide number five, please? Okay. US oil production. Because oil is the primary commodity for the entire planet, everybody has to have oil for gasoline and diesel, especially since we use gasoline, diesel to transport any commodity around the planet. Truck train, Piper ship. Okay. Even the pipes require the burning natural gas to power the pumps. Okay. Truck train, Piper ship. Because of that, all commodities in the world are priced in dollars. Corn, wheat, pork bellies, turkey, chicken, you name it. It's all priced in dollars. Okay. So the whole world has to have dollars. That's what makes the dollar, the world's global reserve currency. Because if you're going to buy and sell those commodities in the international markets, you're dealing with dollars. Okay. You're going to have to convert your currency, two dollars to buy and sell in those commodities for the entire world. What that chart there shows you basically is just more proof what I was telling you about the US oil production that right now we're only producing between, what we got here, between 11 and 12 million barrels a day. Well, we're starting to drift back up. But for good check of this year, we're sort of underperforming, but that's all that really shows. Can I get slide number six? Okay. And that there says USA gasoline and storage. Okay. So there's a little bit of information about this slide, but I'm going to use this slide to explain about the dynamics between supply and demand. Okay. Well, first of all, we've had an uptick in the amount of gasoline, a storage here in America. The reason why that happened is because Joe Biden, President Biden took some oil out of strategic patrol reserve and sold it to some of the big oil companies and they refined it and turned it into gasoline because they've increased the amount of supply of gasoline that caused the prices to drop. So remember that concept and that is if you have a lot of something that drops the price, if you have a small amount of something, the prices increase, supply and demand. Okay. Those two things are linked together. Now, probably the best places I can give an example of how that dynamic works out in an economic system. It has to do with inflation versus deflation. When you have an economic system, you always want to have it. So where you have more demand than you have supply, that gives you a positive spin in your economic system and it can give you inflation and you use the interest rates on debt because money is actually loaned into existence. Okay. And so by raising or lowering the interest rates on that debt, you can control the rate of inflation. So by limiting the supply of your commodities, you've got more demand than supply and those interest rates and you use that to keep your economy in balance. Now, examples of when it gets out of balance, one of them had to do with the Great Depression, the reason why the depression occurred. During the 1920s, a lot of manufacturers entity, business entities went after and they borrowed a lot of money and they used that money to build a lot of manufacturing capacity. So when the 29-stop market crash happened, all this demand crashed because people lost their jobs, they couldn't consume as much so far. But you had all this manufacturing capacity tied to all these debts and because you had all this and so that depressed the prices of what they were producing and they could just make barely make payments on this debt, they were dragging around and all of that, but they drug this debt around for about 10 years.  And so when he did that, that brought the economy back into balance between supply and demand and then he was able to use that to rev the manufacturing engine back up and get us through World War II. And that led to the economic recover right through the 50s and the 50s were actually a pretty good economic time for the United States, but it goes back to understanding that relationship between supply and demand and that's just some basic understandings in economics and how that works. Now as far as inflation, let me give you some examples. If you don't have inflation and control how it can whip your economic system apart. So for example, right now in the Middle East, they're completely sold out of your rear. Your rear is fertilized if you didn't know that. And what's happened is because the natural gas prices this summer has been steadily going up and if you listened to some of our previous talks, you know that a major component for making ammonia is natural gas and they take ammonia and they can turn that into urea, which is basically take some more carbon monoxide, some molecules of money attached together and so you make urea. But what's happened is, is people out there are seeing the prices, the natural gas steadily going up. So what they did is they went and bought up all their urea they could, all the fertilizer they could, before the prices went higher. That's called porting. And you'll find that whenever people are noticing that, for example, let's say you had jar of baby food, let's say this week I buy it for $1, maybe three weeks from now I buy another jar of baby food, then it's $2. Three more weeks after that, I buy another jar of baby food, it's $3. What happens is most people get in their mind, well, the prices are going up. I have no idea how high the price is going to be three weeks, one month, two months out. What do they do? They start hoarding, hoarding as much as they can. What happens at the manufacturer, when the manufacturer sees that all my baby food is sold at this place, what they do, they only have a certain amount of manufacturing capacity. When they build manufacturing capacity, they have to go borrow the money to build the factory. So there's a limit there. What they do is they start raising the prices and because they start raising the prices, the people, your consumers, they start hoarding more of that stuff and then the manufacturer, he raises the prices even higher. So you get this feedback loop, it starts flipping and it's between that manufacturer and the consumer, between the supply and demand and that's how the inflation starts feeding on itself. As an example right now, lithium carbonate, the prices are sky high and if you order any lithium carbonate for making some of your lithium ion batteries, you'll have to wait eight months before they'll deliver it. Before you can order lithium carbonate and they deliver between 30 and 90 days. Now you got to wait eight months and it's because they still haven't mined the stuff out of the ground and what they've done is they've raided the prices because people are paying those prices because they're hoarding the lithium is what's going on. Vegetable oil, the price of vegetable oil is already doubled in the last year. This is at the wholesale level. The price of potatoes have already doubled, again at the wholesale level. The price of soybeans have already doubled, again at the wholesale level. The price of lumber, lumber crashed last July, guess what? They recovered all the costs and all of that but the price of levels doubled since last year at the wholesale level. So we have inflation in our economic system and it's feeding on itself. There's a feedback loop there. Any questions so far Stan? Now just the connection again back to energy, you know the lithium batteries connected to energy. The moving of food and the tying of so many commodities to transportation goes back to energy. You can't afford to get this kind of instability in the energy sector because it has a multiplying factor through the rest of the commodities that are traded. Well also recognize we already pointed out there's a length between oil and the dollar directly. There's a direct connection that is the master resource and since it is sold throughout the world in dollars therefore you have to have dollars. You got money connected to the master resource which is energy. You get high energy prices, it'll feed back into your financial system. If you don't get this thing under control, it can tear your economic system apart. We'll talk about that. So there's a direct connection between the money and oil and energy directly and it's wired directly into the the foundation of the system. Can we go to slide number seven please? Okay this has to do with yield curve what's called a positive yield curve what that is. Okay so what you've got there on the screen that has to do with the United States trader is and what the idea behind a positive yield curve is simply this and that is your short duration bonds have a low interest rate on them and longer duration bonds have a higher interest rate on them and it has to do with risk. If you're going to buy one of these U.S. government bonds you're going to hold on for 30 years right you're going to want to be paid a higher interest rate for your risk. Now understanding U.S. government bond is essentially risk-free debt because it's being issued by a government the U.S. government so that right there what I'm actually showing you that is the real reserve currency the world is using these bonds to trade for those commodities okay they don't necessarily care about what the yield is on them just as long as it's a positive yield but they're actually trading these things for those commodities for your portbillies for your oil for everything okay. Now the thing about bonds is the price is that the price of your bond is inverse to the interest rate on them what that means is if the price if the price of your bond is high the interest rates are low but if the price in your bond is low then the interest rates are high. These bonds are sold at auction so basically the government wants to get the most money as it can so they want the prices to go out and they're trying to convince you to pay them more money for their bonds. Now if there's a lot of demand for the bonds the prices will be high and the government only has to pay a little interest rate on okay so that's high demand pay a little interest rate but if nobody wants those bonds what the government has to do to entice you to buy the bond is raise the interest rates on those bonds okay so remember the price of the bond is inverse to to the interest on that bond they go back and forth right now the Fed reserve controls the bond market here's how they do they do it in three different ways and contrary to popular belief these three different ways are really nothing new to the Fed reserve the truth is all three of these things that they have have been in the Fed reserve act since 1913 the first one is is they well first of all the Fed reserve is actually a private institution the employees are government employees but the Fed reserve is actually a private institutions the people that own them are actually the member banks jp morgan's city bank they actually they own their own their Fed reserve so it's a public employees but private institutions what that means you can subpoena the employees and get them to talk to congress but if you try to audit the Fed you're going to go through a court because technically that is a private corporation now how they control it is the the Fed reserve controls the interest rates how the banks when the banks loan each other money the Fed reserve controls those interest rates that's called the interbate banking rate and that's really down in the short end of the curve now on the upper end of the curve how they controlled us with QE and QT quantitative easing quantitative tightening what quantitative easing is is where the Fed reserve goes into the bond market and they start buying up all the bonds when they buy up all the bonds what happens when they buy up all the bonds the prices the bonds go up and the interest rates go down that's how the Fed reserve is able to force the interest rates go down by buying up all the bonds out of the market now when it comes to quantitative tightening that's where the Fed reserve takes the bonds on their balance sheet and they sell them into the market in other words they flood the market with bonds okay when they flood the market with bonds that causes the prices on those bonds to fall with the interest rates to go up okay so it's important to understand that concept so QE is they're buying up all the bonds and forces the interest rates down QT is where they sell them into the market right and that causes the interest rates to go up okay when you have the Federal Reserve making those bond purchases or sales is that really the big banks making those purchases and sales well basically when you go to the bond auction the primary dealers all those big banks they're the ones at the bond auction you and I are you and I buy those bonds from the banks but the banks are at the auction they're buying them directly from the treasure right and the banks so when they buy them out the treasury they can turn around and sell them directly to the Federal Reserve basically the Federal Reserve says hey I want these bonds the bank buys it gives the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve gives the bank something called they're called bank reserves that's what they're called so technically the Federal Reserve is not actually printing money but they're actually money is actually loaned into existence the Federal Reserve is a bank that has the ability to lend unlimited amounts of money they don't print money they lend money into existence it's sort of like when you create a mortgage you put down your 10% your banker creates a mortgage backed security and he loans money into existence that money doesn't exist it's actually created by that loan and then that loan turns into a mortgage backed security which it gets sold out in the market so money is lend loaned into existence okay if I can get you to page number eight so yeah okay yield curve inversion equals recession what happens with a yield curve version that's when the Federal Reserve decides they're going to tighten monetary conditions they can do that in two ways one is is they can raise the interest rates on those inner bank bank loans and that causes the yields and the short-term bonds to be higher than longer ones okay the other way they can do it is stop buying bonds using QE that might do it the other way it can do it they can start selling bonds into the market and that could do it now give me an example what yield curve conversion looks like let's say I had two-year bonds have paid 5% but yet the 20-year bond is only paying 1.5% that means the shorter term bonds have a higher interest rate than the shorter term ones and if you look at that chart right there if I can get you to show number eight again see that pink area there whenever the that's when those yield curve conversions happen notice 1929 we had a yield curve conversion all right that causes a crash here's how that works when you're talking about us government bonds remember this is same people that make the money so this is risk-free debt now whenever the government does QE basically they buy up all the government bonds remember they bought up all the risk-free debt that's okay and they've dropped the interest rate and what that does that forces everybody because you I can't afford to own a bond that pays me no interest because there's always still limited inflation or whatever so it forces everybody to go out and buy up all the stocks all the corporate bonds is what happens okay now whenever the government does this QE inversion thing what happens is everybody sells off all their stocks and their bonds to rush toward that two-year bond that's paying 5% okay so that's how you get a stock market sell off in the process but also remember all the other things that are tied to those bonds like well for example let's see oil okay so if you have this yield curve conversion right that that has a lot of other knock-on effects to it one of them has to do with commodities whenever you get these yield curve conversions one of the things that happens I just described how the stock market sells off it what happens overseas in other countries depending on what interest rates look right look around other government bonds what'll happen is it'll trigger a sell-off and other stock markets and bond markets around the world people will trade their currencies for the dollar that means their currency drops in value the dollar goes up in value just so they can buy those bonds okay well whenever that happens that means it takes fewer dollars to buy a barrel of oil that means oil could go from $80 a barrel drop down to 10 bucks right hey good for the consumer inexpensive oil right yeah bad for the producer because when prices drop like that the guy that's running the oil well or the refinery he stops making oil he turns the tap off or the guy running the refinery he turns the refinery up because he's losing money selling you fuel at that price and that'll happen because you got a crash in the commodities market and that's because the dollar went too fast up in value right fewer dollars to buy the same oil but yet it doesn't change the cost of producing end products it's a little bit complex but if you think about what I just said it'll make a lot of sense okay if I can get to page number nine okay so we go back to that thing here says the needle jumped in the magnetic ball okay so in this case here um the guy there is envisioned that is Jerome Powell and he's trying to cut off QE and what happened when he started inserting that magnetic probe into the engine then the needle in the magnetic bottle jumped now the Federal Reserve um since 2019 they've been pumping $120 billion a month into the markets of QE that's $80 billion with the bonds and $40 billion with the mortgages the Federal Reserve Blackrock has been going around the United States buying up all single family houses um and Blackrock's turning those into mortgages back securities and the Federal Reserve's been buying those so right now we have a housing bubble it's bigger than the 2008 bubble uh 95 percent of Americans cannot afford to buy a house and the culprit is actually the Federal Reserve the Federal Reserve is trying to get the housing market from from collapsing okay but they've created a bigger problem in the process the other problem is is our stock market um and we'll talk a little about this later there's something called the the Buffett indicator that's Warren Buffett right you go through and look it up on Google well the Buffett indicator is a valuation indicator right and it's a really good indicator to tell you when you're going to have a stock market crash but right now the Buffett indicator the reading on the Buffett indicator is 200 well and 11 percent okay what that means is gentlemen ladies and gentlemen we're doing work 15 in our in our starship the sub ride around 16 or 17 she's going to blow up okay so I'm just I'm going to give you your two minute warning now yep yep yep okay go to number 10 okay January January 3rd uh that was January 3rd there was a spike in the 10 year remember Jerome Powell did that QE started cutting back and buying those bonds we got a jump in the the 10 year bond 1.7 percent uh to give you an idea what happened last week the 30 year bond lost 9.35 percent of its value the 10 year bond lost 4.24 percent of its value now you didn't see that big of a jump in the stock market and here's the reason why there's a type of bond called TIPS it's um it's an inflation protected bond is what it is well what's happened is is the Federal Reserve has bought up 25 percent of the TIPS market to keep the the rate on those bonds from going up and the reason why is to so the federal government doesn't have to pay as much on those bonds because they already know the rate of inflation side the other reason why the Federal Reserve did that is because all the ETFs on the stock market are tied to the TIPS index and that keeps the stock market for blowing up so if you want to know why the route in the bond market that happened last week did blow up the stock did not blow up the stock market is because the Federal Reserve owns most of the TIPS bond market because they know all those ETF funds that's computer traded funds exchange traded funds are tied directly back to that TIPS bond and oh by the way the 10 year bond is tied to the mortgages right just to understand that uh the last page late number 11 please okay what that is that's called the golden zone you see that line right there that's a relationship between the 10 year bond and the CPI the the December reading on the November rate of inflation was 6.8 what that relationship there shows you all the dots you see there that's where the Federal Reserve has set policy in the past and that's where the 10 year rate ended up and if you notice that red area that's where Jerome's been setting the interest rates before now with a CPI a 6.8 what that means is the interest rates on the 10 year bond should be 7.8 but it's not it's way below where it should be so basically where the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are at is one if they do nothing our economy is going to rip itself apart it'll look like Venezuela or Turkey not only that but probably the world number two Jerome Powell cutting back in the QE he could blow it up just by doing the QE because the sensitive the bond market tried directly back to the stock market and our housing market so that's the the situation we're at right now that is our starship is barreling out of control and if Jerome or Janet Yon do not slow this thing down we're going to have bigger problems than we ever imagined that's that's all I got to say oh that was econ 606 in 30 minutes yes um I mean the economies are complicated um thing I'd like to also point out that probably very few of the banks in in New York or the big banks they don't really make anything they just handle money and you've just kind of gone through a litany of how the interest rates and making money on other people's money is a business it's a big business it's a huge business it has huge implications and energy is also a big business with huge implications tied directly into what the Fed does yeah and that's why I wanted to have this show today because I think it's really important and I hope I hope get a lot of people looking at it and understanding it so that we don't we don't overreact to what's going on in our multi megaton engine and we start settling things out well what I what I try to point out Stan is the fuel for the dollars oil you have problems with oil that causes problems with the entire world economy now I'm not what I'm trying to tell everybody especially if we know we you and I stand we've talked about this we have resource problems with oil and those things are not getting any better when you look at what the new stuff they're finding and the old fields are depleting that's going to continue to have a problem with the world's economy we really need to diversify and this thing we're dealing with right now I just described how I saw how sensitive it was I mean a 30-year bond lost almost 10 percent of its value just last week how many trillions was that Stan that's how sensitive it is yeah I need to do something here guys yeah so we've never had a more important time for saying an intelligent government and policy and it's not looking good in the DC inside the Beltway right now as far as I'm concerned so anyway Dan thank you so much for really a crash course in inflation and connecting it back to the energy world because that's what this show is about is energy yeah and it's truly an important commodity worldwide and now I think people understand why it's even more important and you can't just be you know making radical changes in your oil policy and and your energy policy without some serious repercussions yeah well hopefully everybody will go back and watch that Star Trek episode and when you watch it you'll really appreciate what I just described this is really what Jerome Powell's I know he's sweating bullets right now I can tell you I know he's yeah well Dan thanks for being on the show again today and I'm sure we're gonna have another couple economic talks down in the in the future and I want to have you on at least once a month to give us a reality check on energy so thanks again for being here today and for everybody out there in think tech land we'll see you next week Tuesday and just as a teaser on the 25th of this month I have the CEO of plug power coming on to talk to us about his company that's doing gangbusters around the world in hydrogen aloha


I've finally done it guys, I've finished updating my Lucid Dreaming app. This is the iPhone app that I would recommend you get if you want to do more reality checks. Now it has several features which I really want to talk about in this video. So firstly this is the home screen. So you can find this by just typing how to lucid or lucid dreaming into the app store and you want to look for this logo here, the little eye with the blue crescent moon inside. That's my lucid dreaming app and yeah it's called how to lucid at the moment. Now there's a few things I want to make you very aware of here. This is in my opinion the best lucid dreaming app on iPhone at the moment simply because it works basically. It's not focused on pointless features so let me just get right into it. The main feature here is the reality check reminders.  So let's say in the next hour you want to have 50 reminders, 30 reminders it can do that and then you can customize here the text. So I've got mine to say are you dreaming do a reality check now? Let me just get rid of some of this. It's hard to type while also making sure the phone is in frame here. But you can say let's say if your name is Sarah and you can just type that that'll be the reminder. And then the notification sound you can decide which sound you want. So I'm just going to play you a few of these. So there's a weird bell sound. Angel Chorus, a slightly more annoying sound there. Rabbit Hole and the Alien Tunnel. So yeah you can customize the notifications there. You can customize the text that's going to say how often it goes off, what time bracket it goes off with, the sound. And then this explains a bit more about reality checks and how they work, how to do them, and then there's a link here to learn more about them.  Now for those of you who know what the wake back to bed technique is, this is basically a technique which involves waking up early, then going back to sleep with the intention of lucid dreaming. However it's quite hard to do that without actually waking yourself up too much. So you can set up to five alarms here with the same customizable sound and they turn themselves off. So you don't need to open your eyes, you don't even need to move or touch your phone. You can literally just wake up when you hear the alarm and you can set them to go off at any time. You can experiment with this and find out the best times of doing this. And then it explains how to do it, how to use the wake back to bed. So that's the main features is the reality check reminders and the auto shut off alarm. However it does also have a dream journal. Oh by the way you're probably wondering if I use this it would be too bright. There is a dark mode. So you can turn off dark mode here, you can see me in the reflection there filming. So yeah dark mode is really useful for if you're writing in your dream journal in the middle of the night. I've tried to keep the dream journal as simple as possible. So basically you can type in the title, you can press this button if you want it to be marked as lucid or not lucid. You can describe the dream and then it's done. It automatically puts the date for you, you don't need to write the date and it automatically saves it into folders according to the month. So you can see in chronological order here all of the dreams you've had in May and the reason I have no dreams here is because I've just released this update. So it's brand new, I've deleted my app and restored it with this one. So you can see here it says May 2020, you can search by keyword. You can type in keywords, very important for doing certain techniques and recognising your dream signs. You can search by lucid, non lucid or all dreams. And these little three buttons here, that is basically a tutorial on how to keep dream journals if you want it. Basically you can just write your dreams down, press new, it automatically sorts it into the date. You don't need to do anything else, you can just record whether it's lucid or not and that is literally it. Now there's also an about section just explaining a bit more about me, about the app, the benefits of lucid dreaming, you know why you might want to learn how to lucid dream, very simple. And then in the tools section, this is quite useful, in my opinion. So I've got tutorials on all of the major techniques here and by the way this is all offline, the entire app is free, it's ad free and everything here is available and it works offline and without an internet connection. So you have tutorials here, mild, wild, wake back to bed, the dialed and the 90 dialed, which is my technique that I created, in my opinion one of the most effective. And so yeah, you can learn more about lucid dreaming there using the techniques. And there's also other things like my best recommendations for supplements and where to get them. You have all sorts of things here, acronyms, an entire list of all the lucid dreaming acronyms so you can impress your friends on forums or whatever subreddit you're lurking in, tips and warnings and everything here.  Now in terms of the reality check reminder, it will show you reminders on your phone and it will also echo the reminders to your watch if you have an Apple watch, I'm not sure if you do, but if you do have an Apple watch, then it will echo the reminders to there. If not, it will just show them on your iPhone. Now yes, you can disable notifications based on time brackets, so you can decide, let's say if you want 60 reminders within a time bracket, you can select the starting time, let's say now and the ending time. So you can tell it to end when you would go to sleep, let's say 10, it will only play reminders between those hours, even if you don't want to do that. Let's say if you just want to do 60 reminders randomly all the time every day, that's what I would recommend doing. If you have your phone on your iPhone settings to do not disturb, so do not disturb comes on it, let's say eight in the evening, it will automatically pause notifications and play them again in the morning. So you don't need to worry about it waking you up in the middle of the night. However, if you do want to experiment with that and if you do want a sort of a cheaper way of doing what the Instagram claims to be doing, you can actually get the Apple watch and experiment with that and see for yourself if you can get it to work or if it's just, you can experiment with that if you want to, but the main feature is just the reality check reminders, very simple, very straightforward. So yeah, to remind you basically, look for this icon, this logo in the App Store, just type in how to Lucid, all one word, or howtolucid.com or type in Lucid Dreaming app, it should come up for one of those things. And at the moment, it is only available on iPhone App Store. It will be coming to Android, there will be an Android app, but at the moment it's just available on iPhone. However, any features, any suggestions you have, any bugs, any feedback really, comment on this video, upvote people's comments if you want to see a suggestion or a feature, or just email me at contact at howtolucid.com and just put in the subject line something like app suggestion. And so yeah, as I said, this is entirely your app. I want to make this the best Lucid Dreaming app for you. This is also the features that I use personally as well every day. And like I said, the entire thing is completely free. There are no ads whatsoever, no ads, nothing like that, no weird banners or anything. What you see is what you get and the whole thing is free, it works offline. If you do like this, if you find this useful, please consider becoming a supporter on my Patreon, but you don't have to. I did this because I love the features here and I actually use this myself. As I said, I will be bringing this to Android very soon. You don't need a link for this, you can just type in howtolucid on the App Store. But if you would like to support me on Patreon and make sure I can do more of this kind of thing, then the link for that is in the description or just go to patreon.com forward slash howtolucid. And yeah, please leave a comment letting me know what you think about this app. I would really, really appreciate any feedback, any suggestions of how I can make it better. And by the way, please, this is my only request from you guys, okay? If you get this, if you download this app, please consider either sharing it with your friend or leaving a review on the App Store. It takes about two seconds and it would really, really help me out. So yeah, I would really appreciate if you could leave a review for this or just consider sharing it with your friends. It won't give any annoying notifications, it will just literally give you the reality check reminders that you have at a frequency you decide. It won't give you any promotions, any advertising, any weird links or anything like that. The only thing it will do is if you do want to see some of my videos on YouTube, like this one, you can click this on the homepage, you can click this top videos tab and it has a link to some of my other looser dreaming videos on YouTube. And then there are some links also to various resources and tools you might want to use like one of my courses here, which just tells you a bit more about, you know, the bootcamp course, if you want to look at that. But that is pretty much everything here is free, useful, available and hopefully gonna be a good for you to help you looser dream more. So yeah, check it out and I'll see you next time.


The 82nd is the only division size element that the Army has that can jump into a drop zone anywhere in the world. We can be wheels up from Fort Bragg in 18 hours with a package ready to go. So 82nd does a swift response exercise every year to continue to refine that capability. If we're jumping in somewhere overseas, we're most likely going to have our international partners with us. So again, just doing this keeps us ready for if we need to do it for real. And like I said, it just helps always to refine and enhance our international relations with our NATO partners. Direct delivery from the United States of Joint Forcible Entry Force was one of the goals, but doing it in conjunction with our allies was another one. And so that's what we've been doing here in Romania. We've got our headquarters at MK Air Base where we've got several nations represented within our combined headquarters. And all of those elements have been critical parts of this training exercise throughout. It's a good experience, like for me and my professional career, being able to gain credibility from my soldiers saying, like, yeah, I've done this, I've jumped here. And I think it's just a good experience getting to know our allies, I guess. Like always, interoperability, interoperability, and we are stronger together. And I think that we are ready for future challenges here in Europe. These kinds of exercises are critical. When you look out and you see aircraft flying from five different allied countries and all the different parachutes coming down from all the different allies that participated, it drives it home, I think, how important this is and how much we can do.