So I'm flattered guys. Thank you so much. Ah, okay If you have a spare card I can write right here for you Okay, hello, good afternoon here. We are in I believe it's the Vietnam room. Yes, okay. Ladies and gentlemen, a very good afternoon to you. I trust you've had a good lunch. Whoever is remaining if we could please ask you to to come and join us here. And we can get the session underway. Okay, my name is Martin Sun. I'm from CNBC. It's my honor and also pleasure to be here. Welcome. We know what this plenary session is about. But before we begin, just to a couple of quick housekeeping items for you all and for for the panelists as well. You probably need to be aware that this is an open session. On the record, some members of the media, I'd rather maybe here in the audience, it's going to be webcast live. So this is for your reference in case there are questions and also for for the panelists. This is all on the record. In other words, if anybody has cell phones, any sorts of other communication devices, if you could please ideally turn them off of you or you really cannot silent would be alright. Just as a matter of courtesy while this session is underway. And format wise, what has happened before I know is very sequential and set piece sort of pitch battle and then right towards the end will draw questions out from the floor from the audience. We can do that. That's nice and safe. We can get through this session. But if possible, I'd like to get you folks engaged sooner rather than later. If you have a question or even comments for any of our panelists here, all we always ask is in terms of protocol, tell us who you are, where you're from or who you represent and also who your question or comment is to that would be very helpful. And I believe there should be groving microphones that come to you to just raise your hands. Okay. In terms of timekeeping, we've got about 75 minutes or an hour and 15 minutes. This is World Economic Forum. So we're running on Swiss time. We're getting started, I believe on the dot and I think we need to end on the dot as well because there are other plenary sessions and people are busy. They want to meet other people in network, which is what this whole conclave is all about. Again, our theme redrawing the green print of Asia's energy architecture. We know that. What I'd like to do before I introduce you to the panelists, though, is to do this. Get to this underlying question. My brief is fairly simple. We're trying to get to the bottom of one core question and that is how this part of the world Asia can design a comprehensive blueprint or green print as a word to manage the transition, the change to a wider spectrum of energy resources out here in Asia. We'll talk about economic also political frameworks. What's needed to enable this new resources, innovations, technology, what's available, what is cost effective, what's realistic, and also supply chain security because at the bottom of this feeding and also powering Asia sustainably in the future is going to depend on, if not energy independence, at least a bit more security and a little bit more self reliance, I think. Underlying all this, of course, is what we've seen happen to oil, all the prices have come back down and give some people, including corporates, some comfort. What I'd like to do to start with, though, is I'm going to spring a surprise. I told some of the panelists, but not all about this and none of you know about this. I'm going to deviate a little bit from the usual Weft plan. What we're talking about this afternoon, I think is very topical, very topical, especially post 311 in Japan, the nuclear disaster, earthquake tsunami and subsequent nuclear disaster. It's raising a lot of questions. We've seen the backlash in the West, Germany, several other states as well. Out here in Asia, though, it's a little bit more uncertain places like Indonesia, Vietnam, China, obviously, India. What I'd like to do now is to get the audience involved. First off, just a real simple poll, it's binary, just yes or no. Give me a show of hands, whether you folks think should nuclear be part of Asia's energy future? It's not as simple as yes or no, I know that, but come on, let's get this thing started. Who's for yes? Raise your hands, please. Wow. Okay, I'm kind of surprised. And those, that's actually pretty surprising. And interesting as well. And this is a good way to kick off, I think. So the majority, I'd put it at, oh, to be generous, maybe 70% yes, 30% no to the question, should nuclear be part of Asia's energy future? Let me pose this question to our guests, but I need to introduce our panelists first, of course. Just next to me, Gerard Masterlight, GDF. Next to him, we've got Trimum Puni from Ibeka, which is an NGO co-op type organization, which does a lot of work ground up at the village and community level with hydropower. It's a very interesting story she has. Next to her, of course, is Karen Agustiawan, CEO of Protamina, Melody Meyer, Chevron, Asia-Pacific head, and last but not least, right at the very end. Of course, we've got Prashant Ruhia, who is the head of the SR Group in India, the Bikin Guam, a power generator as well. So these are our panelists, 73rd, 7030, yes nuclear, no nuclear to Asia's power or energy future. Gerard, what do you say? I consider that nuclear is part of the solution. It will be part of the solution everywhere in the world, of course, depending on the political choice of each country. As we are concerned as an energy group, 10% of our power is produced through seven nuclear plants that we have in Belgium. We own and operate the totality of the nuclear plants in Belgium. And I consider that the nuclear from base load generation has a role to play. What is surprising after Fukushima is that the reactions have not been the same in Asia and in Europe or even in the States. Most many countries in Asia have decided to stick to nuclear. Does that surprise you? A little bit because it happened in the accident, dramatic accidents happen in Asia. And nevertheless, most of the Asian countries, including Japan, have decided to keep nuclear. In Europe and in Western Europe, where there never has been any accident, any civil accident in nuclear, Germany has decided to withdraw and to stop. Switzerland has decided to stop. And Italy is deciding today or tomorrow in a referendum also either to come back in nuclear or perhaps more likely to close definitely the door to nuclear. In the US, some operators have decided to stop projects, creating write-offs. So in Europe and in the States, there are some hesitations and we don't know today what we know what will happen in Germany, Switzerland and Italy, but not yet the reactions of the other countries. They will make the stress test. And of course, they will have to decide after the stress test whether they close down some plants or not. And also what will be the final commitment towards nuclear. I consider as a power group, an energy group that using the most modern specifications of the third generation nuclear plants, such as the EPR designed by ARIVA or ATMEA, smaller one designed jointly by ARIVA and Mitsubishi, have very safe reactors, much safer than all the existing nuclear plants that are run over the world. And of course, it is a sovereign decision of each government, each country depending on the public opinion, either to continue or to enter into the nuclear power generation. But as an industrialist, I consider that nuclear is an element of the solutions, because especially here in Asia, the first element to take into account is the strong demand for the coming 20 years and 30 years. The demand will be the physical consumption of energy and power will grow at a pace which will be more or less double than the rhythm of the rest of the world. So there is a need for energy, without enough energy supply, there will not be a growth. There is no economy growth without enough supply of energy and electricity. So it is part of the solution. It is part of the solution. Yes. And needs in third or maybe even fourth generation technology now is safe. But at the end of the day, it's a question of political will. Absolutely. I think. Okay, Fremont Pouni, you've heard the our straw poll or seen our straw poll, 70% yes, nuclear, 30% no, what say you? Well, I think if you're talking about nuclear power plant, it's just like taking an airplane. You know, it has to be prepared technically and human resources. So you see how many people are taking airplane, you know, but if something happened, finish. If an accident in the airplane, you know, there is nothing left. So this is exactly the way you ask yourself, do you want to take an airplane or you want to walk? This is in my opinion. But in the case of Indonesia, you know, in ASEAN, especially, where there are so many potential from renewable energy, for instance, you know, we have to really make it an optimum. You know, we still have a geothermal, everything, every renewable energy sources, you know, if it's possible, this is based on the culture mindset of the community. Because I'm talking here, you know, with the economic growth, and also some effort that the government trying to catch up.  But in a way that infrastructure to provide that is very left behind. So the thing is, to answer whether we need nuclear or not, in my opinion is we have to really make the society decided where are they going to, you know, to drive their development. Because I know that nuclear is possible. It's possible, but it's not the answer for the present condition. Due to so many local resources that are possible to be developed. This is what my opinion. But we never know in the next 50 years, 100 years, where all the resources has been ticked up and we don't have anything left, then there's no solution. We should have an answer. Then that's what I say. Maybe. Okay. All right. I did. I mentioned in my in some of my roundtable discussion that I am always open into any options of energy. And I think we should not shut ourselves into any kind of energy.  The only thing that I have concerns regarding nuclear energy is, you know, I heard that it is in the fourth generation, Gerard. I know that you say it's safe. When you have this nuclear plant in Indonesia, please be aware that you have the system, you have the process. But it is the people who is handling the nuclear plant.  I'm not worried about the technology. I'm not worried about, you know, about it being operating. But I'm worried about the human resources. Are we ready? Basically from this region, from my country, in terms of human resources.  But the awareness of HSE is not where to, compared to the other international companies. So this is the gap that I think we need to fill in. Okay. This is a very interesting point because in my discussions earlier today, as well as yesterday, this whole question of infrastructure needs in Indonesia, one of the big challenges, I think, in the way of further development of rollout or buildout in terms of PPPs is precisely that. I mean, one, obviously, is money. But two, it's actual implementation and management, especially because of centralization. It's not as easy as importing technical expertise. They need to speak Bahasa for one. Yeah. Melody? So maintaining Asia's growth trajectory is extremely important for the world. And certainly to meet the increasing demand for energy, we're going to need all forms of energy. We're going to need nuclear. Nuclear will continue to play a role. We'll need fossil fuels. Today fossil fuels provide a significant percentage of our energy demand needs in the region. And we expect over the next couple decades that fossil fuels will also play a significant role. But there'll be emerging role for renewables and alternatives. Certainly renewables at scale that don't require subsidies are important. But having all forms of energy is very, very important. And this this region is uniquely blessed with fossil fuels, oil, natural gas, significantly growing resources in natural gas. Certainly geothermal is a big part of this region. My company is a very large producer of geothermal here in Indonesia. We're 50%. But there are opportunities to continue to expand in the areas of geothermal. So bottom line, we're going to need all forms of energy to meet that growing demand in this region. Okay, now, before we get to Prashat, I'm going to be a bit of a spoiler because we've talked several times before. I know exactly what his position is, but go ahead. Well, I think clearly India has, I mean, we've heard about the region and Indonesia. India has a slightly different problem. We the need for power and energy is significant. Currently, we are we're producing about 150 gigawatts of power. And we need another 350 to 400 gigawatts over the next two decades to meet the total requirement of the country. And if you take China today, they're closer to 800,000 megawatts, 800 gigawatts already today. So and we don't have the same level of natural fossil fuel resources, whether it's oil or natural gas. And therefore, I think, at least from an Indian perspective, all alternate source of power, including nuclear is something which I think the country is going to pursue. Last year, we signed the NPT the treaty for permitting additional nuclear power plants. And I think while the safety and the technology is available, obviously, there's going to be a debate post the 311. But but I think in the end, it'll come around to all sources of power, including nuclear, including nuclear. But the interesting thing is, to meet India's more immediate needs, because it is underpowered the statistic that sticks in my mind is what 45% of people don't have access to power even now. So I mean, it's not just a question of safety and security is very important. But it's also a question of making sure that every individual gets access to power, which to me is the first will be the government's first objective. And and they'll have to live with the resources available to it. Okay, we have to come clean here. There are vested interests.  You've been quoted widely publicly extensively saying that look to paraphrase, I mean, look, everybody wants the lights on in India, I think they wanted it on yesterday, right? Right. Problem is, it's got to be affordable. And that argues for coal, you think? I mean, clearly, the people who are going to consume the power now, I have to get it at an affordable price. And and for that, you have to use the resources which we have in India, which is largely available, which is coal. And today, the cost of power generated from coal is clearly amongst the lowest, clearly the lowest after probably hydro. And again, there isn't abundant resources of possibility of generating hydropower in India. So I think coal is going to be it's today 55 or 60% of our total generation. I think it's going to remain in that range. All right, let me ask you a slightly controversial question. When you look at China, for example, we know, of course, they also have huge energy needs, probably not as much of a shortfall as as India. They're also leaders in renewables and solar, very big in wind as well. And they've also got one of the most aggressive nuclear buildout programs on the planet. Are they getting their math wrong then? Is that what you're saying? No, I don't think they're getting their math wrong. I think it's, as I said, even India will build out nuclear over time. But it's a seven to eight year program to build to build these plants. And we only got approvals international approvals last year. So they're still, you know, under development. And at the same time, we have immediate power requirements. Those are going to get get met by coal, coal based power or gas based power, or hydro. And then in the next phase, which is closer to a decade from now, is when I think you'll get access to nuclear power. China is a bit ahead of us. I think they started a few years ago, and they'll get it. They'll get the power probably earlier. Okay, one point that Prashant made in our early discussions, and this comes back around to what treatment point he was saying, this decision needs to be inclusive. And very much from the ground up. And what Gerard was saying, it's a political decision, an issue of sovereignty at the end. The big difference here is, I mean, India, you're talking about the biggest democracy in the world, China. Basically, I mean, let's be honest about this. They can do what they want. Is that fair? That's the decision, the sovereign decision of the country. First of all, I would like to preside that all over the world, nuclear represents 15%. So 85% of the power generation in the world comes from other technologies than nuclear. And in the future, nuclear will not represent in the long run, even before Fukushima, more than 15%. Because the existing 15% have been built mainly in the 70s and 80s. And after Chernobyl, all the construction have been stopped in Western countries, only in China, India, and Japan and Korea. There was some construction of nuclear plants. But today, the percentage of nuclear is declining. Because most of the new construction of power generation are based on coal, based on gas or renewables. And hydro, I include hydro in renewables. So even in China, it is important to understand nuclear, the big program. But natural gas, the natural gas developments, even in China, will be even greater than nuclear. Perhaps that would be what I wanted to underline. After Fukushima, the winners in terms of technology will be renewables. And that is what is in mind of the population, public opinion. You will replace nuclear by renewables. That's simple. But in fact, that would not be exactly the case. A very significant part of the space left by the nuclear will be occupied by natural gas. You have just seen perhaps the document published by the International Energy Agency last week about the future of energy. And the title is The Golden Age of Gas. And they see, and I agree with that, the natural gas as the leading energy of the 21st century. Because you have lots of reserves between one century and two centuries. Thanks to the, not only the classical natural gas, but also the unconventional gas, shell gas, not only. So you will have plenty of natural gas. And big countries like China, but also like the US, have decided and have decided to give a significant role to natural gas, which will become thanks to LNJ, you can find natural gas, a world renewable market, which is not the case so far. What about efficiency cost effectiveness? If you need to import it, how does it compare to, I should know this is a silly question, but I'll ask you, compared to, let's say, coal? Of course, it depends on the immediate price of natural gas. So far, natural gas, for example, in the US market, is very cheap. Very cheap compared to coal. That is not the case everywhere. But in the US market, they have stopped building coal power plants. And the natural gas is replacing, because locally you have enormous quantities of shell gas, unconventional gas. And the price is around four US dollars per million BTU in the US. Of course, the US are becoming a gas island. They no longer import natural gas. Unfortunately for us, we were the, it was to be the largest importer of LNG in the US market. And now they are independent on the gas point of view. But they do not export. So it is an island. It is a quite isolated market. And therefore, the natural gas on other markets, such as Europe, are quite double the price of the US market. So it's it's, it's happened. And just one last observation in terms of climate change. Natural gas is much more efficient than coal. The emission of CO2 are half, 50 percent of the one of coal. And to illustrate that in Europe, you know that Europe has this is even with clean or cold technology. Yes. Okay. All right. Yes. You know, Europe has has decided very tough commitments in order of reducing CO2 emissions minus 20 percent in 2020. That if the totality of the coal plants in in Europe would be converted into gas plants, those those targets would be reached immediately in one time. Because because natural gas is much cleaner than than than than coal. Let's bring you in on this and I guess let you defend yourself. Go ahead. I totally agree with you know, in terms of the US, that absolutely makes sense to go down the gas. But their gas reserves have gone from 30 years to 125 years since they've got shale gas discoveries and production. But I think in the region in Asia that the situation is slightly different. There isn't sufficient access to gas and if you were to buy LNG and build power plants of that, which is the credit gas, the cost of that is significantly higher than the four dollars which I was talking about. Okay. Talk to us about your own company corporate experience. I know that you have a very aggressive build-up program in terms of capacity. Within three years you're going to I think double your output in terms of getting access to the actual material. The coal, much of that is in India's interior but it's not easy. Yeah. Well the initial build-out of power plants which we did at SR was gas-based. So we have a little below 2,000 megawatts of gas-based power and then we and then we came across the shortage of sufficient natural gas in the country and therefore the expansion which we're doing we're adding on another 8,000 megawatts of power, 8 gigawatts and all of that is on coal based in the interior of the country based on domestic coal mines and that program is underway and will be completed over the next two years time. Okay. But I mean you're also looking at assets here obviously in Indonesia. Thermal coal which has a higher sulfur content. It's frankly better quality than the stuff in the interior of India. No? Yeah certainly. It's the quality of coal here is better. But most of the coal which comes into India from countries like Indonesia or Australia will be primarily used along for plants along the coast of the country and if you're building power plants in the interior of the country then you'll normally go for the domestic coal. All right let's bring Trimung Puneen on this. We have Jiragu touched on renewables. Talk to us about your experience. I find it fascinating because what is happening is this is very much bottom up. It's economic empowerment. It's not just self-sufficiency and economic independence but you've got some projects where after a village or a community meets its own needs from your micro hydroprojects you sell the surplus to the grid.  I love just to say something that really sufficient sustainable make sure that the ownership in the local level. You know this is this is what what in in in the opinion when the first time we start with this was thinking that Indonesia especially we are an island country it is doesn't make any sense if we would like to have a national grid you know from from one island to another island. What is the best way to fulfill the energy demand of the local community. The resources is there water is plenty everywhere you know so what the best thing to do is just we have to make sure that every local community utilizing their own resources to be able to manage by themselves because this is will sustain you know this is what very important is locally ownership and then sustainable and what we do is I always tell them that the electricity is not for infrastructure this is a trigger for economic development so this is very important part the thing when they enough you know they have enough electricity to trigger their economic development locally then they have also potential to sell the access to the grid because the demand mostly not very big and the resources big so they can sell it to the rest to the grid and by selling to the grid they have their own income this is what creating dependability you know it's dependent really from from the outside you know support and this is actually we not only would like to implement this even we have one power plant in the Philippines owned by the local community what very important for our nation you know and especially other places like philippine or asian region that we have to give trust to the local community to fulfill their own demand what we need is just giving an intervention in terms of technology we give a technical assistance we support them with with fun if there is no fun availability or connect them to the bank because mostly the bank is definitely not interesting come to them unless there is a big support you know mostly government or private sector who has art who want to share and i'm sure this is the three elements of sustainable development can be achieved easily first is economic activity yes it is there is an energy there is an economic activity environmental support of course if you want to have your hydro will be sustainable you have to make sure that you conserve the environment properly and the third is community involvement you involve the community in the mainstream of development so there's three elements i'm sure that this is somehow the very important pillar for sustainable development especially also in the energy sector it's a great story it makes sense to me as well i know what we're talking about here is real literal decentralization i want to bring ibu and also melody in on this big u.s oil major state oil here what do you make of this because i remember ibu earlier this morning you're telling me that one of the biggest headaches you face as a result of decentralization in indonesia the last decade or so is oh my gosh at the retail level 18 000 islands it is a nightmare for you but this idea of decentralization not suggesting that people go on drill an oil well or look for oil in the backyard but but still i mean it it seems to make sense i think providing electricity to the smaller islands i do agree with ibu numpuni that you know there are ways that can be operated by the local community but from us from pertamina i think we we've already we've already um i have the floating storage for west java and the second one will be in central java but we do help also pln to distribute the electricity on a further eastern side of of indonesia on islands uh you know on a smaller scale like the 20 megawatts and so on using mini lngs so these are the things that you know we help for electric electrification of the nation i know that you know we are also just like india only about 60 percent so we still have a gap of 40 percent and the likelihood of reaching 95 percent would be only in i think in 2025 was that the program from the for the country but in the meantime i think what pertamina can help is you know because we are an energy company and we also have the sources of lng and you know for remote areas uh you know we can do the mini lngs uh uh type of uh a scheme but um for distribution i think um i i think people in this room need to be aware that um distribution of fuel is very related to the uh is not only infrastructure but it's also uh politically it is very well connected to the government so i think we will not uh risk the liability of not you know if someone or other uh should i say entities of doing the distribution because it you know if if there is no fuel in just one or two retail shop the news will get into the uh the media very uh very uh what in five or ten seconds you know so this is how sensitive uh fuel distribution is in indonesia i so i don't think that you know uh right now unless the other entities have the uh uh infrastructure already in place especially in remote areas you know because that this is where the uh complaints usually come from so otherwise i think it is be it is i think it is best handled with uh uh per tamina as a national company because it is the right hand you know um arm of the government itself all right understood no leading what do you think so i you know uh responsive to my earlier comment we need all forms of energy to meet the growing demand i i think that we also need uh energy at a micro scale and at at a large scale so i i think that you know there there are remote micro opportunities all all across the region that need micro projects and i think that that's there's an excellent that i mean the demand is is large so being able to meet that demand through micro projects projects at scale different types of energy sources geothermal certainly big big in the region lng is um uh enabled by technology i think technology is playing a role in all of these sources whether it's micro projects or geothermal projects certainly uh the large growth in in the lng projects in deep water are enabled through deep water technology and carbon capture sequestration technologies to be able to bring those those resources to market the technology is playing a big role again i just think we need all forms of energy micro and global and renewables at scale are also important whatever we we can get access or make available i need to know here that this isn't necessarily mutually exclusive because offline before the session i was talking about your art and uh free and for one of premium puny's projects gdf is involved with the soft loan i mean it's uh i'm sure the company can afford it why did you do though what what does gdf get out of it well it's it's it's true that that we are we are supporting uh what uh what evika is doing it's it's uh fantastic uh what what you are doing i don't like to congratulate you for for your your efforts um you know we are uh an energy company present in 70 different countries and uh it is always uh surprising to to to see that uh um uh we also are in water business water distribution one billion people on the planet have no access to clean water and two billion uh no access to electricity uh and uh among this figure eight hundred million in asia so uh everything can be done in order to to help uh people to to be connected to electricity uh needs to be to be done so of course no company can can do it alone of course uh and we have to rely on on local NGOs local associations uh local operator and we have decided at the gdf stress level to create a project what we call an in french rassembleur d'energie to the gathering people for energy in order to uh to help projects local projects with three means first one is a soft loan uh through a fund that will have to start 100 million euro that's not bad uh secondly we have a foundation uh in order to to give uh 30 days uh and third um technical assistance and we do this technical assistance through uh uh our volunteers uh we have 2000 people employees of gdf stress uh that we do not pay for that they they they have decided on a voluntary basis to spend their holidays to spend their their their weekends to participate to projects most of them uh being in uh emerging countries in order to create locally to help in uh uh on a micro uh micro uh hydro project or in order to connect a uh small village to electricity or to create a well and a pump for for for clean water because that's that's it is very important uh we do not make many external publicity on that but for our own employees that's very very important for the for the the solidarity within within the company and the unity of the company oh okay that's very uh very nice to hear i want to get back out to the audience uh again what strikes me is this we've part of this conversation has been about cost it's been about affordability um we know that a lot of economies in this part of the world are grappling with price pressures inflation soft side foods etc but also obviously energy and i had this thought oh i don't know about a week ago and i want to put this question to the audience and again just a yes or no answer if you could pressures on government right now to cap prices extend or increase subsidies may be politically expedient it may basically be related to a government's survival but it may be also bad economics so the question i want to ask you is this okay how worried are you that it could be politically expedient but lead to bad economics if governments cave in worried or not worried is is the choice yes worried show of hands oh my gosh it's about four not worried okay all right not getting much uh response here okay maybe it was a bad question i don't know but anyway look it was uh all right it was something that i was i've been wondering in any case uh does anybody have would people like to engage question comment about what we've been talking about discussing this afternoon sir thank you uh my name santo so i'm from green radio and as part of the 30 percent of this room who say no to nuclear i think i should say something and then for indonesia current the future energy will be for the solar because we have a lot and 20 sorry 12 hours a day solar energy and if we really focus on it uh research and also developing i think it's very potential for us we don't need nuclear actually because first we can get from other resources and the future is for solar and the second many people say that we live in the in the ring of fire which very dangerous natural disaster happened here so i think the case of focusing on something that will be very common happen here okay would you like one of our panelists specifically to respond to that or i think we can for evu okay thank you thank you i do hear you um but please bear in mind that uh it is always about human capacity yeah i think i'm not talking that nuclear energy will be in here in the next 30 to 40 years yes of course we can develop all types of energy starting from uh the non fossil fuel be it geothermal be it cbm be it solar be it wind you know it everything is is there basically in indonesia but uh i'm i'm one of a person that is not closed-minded i'm always open because i like to learn new things you know and um it is it it is something that we need to be ready in term of human resources you know i'm not saying that we have to be ready to build it but in terms of human resources we need to be ready yeah i don't want us you know uh in this uh southeast asia region if you look uh you know singapore is ahead of us we just spoke to the prime minister of chilean uh they're ahead of us you know i mean in terms of human capacity they know all about nuclear i mean i think they already have a small pilot project in thailand so i'm not i'm not saying that you know you have to build a power plant here in indonesia but please be ready when the time is you know when the time comes it is all about human resources i think in the southeast asia i think we are left behind now from thailand we are left behind now from malaysia indonesia we are left behind now from vietnam yeah i think this is uh uh an alert for our country basically in terms of human resources okay i i hear you too uh but let's get back to trimum puny and talk about this approach where it's decentralized and also localized micro hydro do you struggle with these sorts of human skill or technical skill capacity challenges and how do you deal with it no basically this is a very major technology which actually we learned the first time it's from european countries that transferring the no-haul and technology and now we have the capacity ourselves indonesian we have to be uh share this with others that's why we have a possibility you know uh 2006 we have three years uh you know transferring this no-haul to philippine because they ask us and we go from one village to another village and we soon go going to to rwanda to africa and there's an over you know from fiji also waiting for us can can we share with this it means that uh they have a belief that even though big is necessary you know like all of your big things you know but smallest beautiful and needed by the local community because they you know this is this is the thing that and more to the point and we don't have any problem with the technicalities but one thing i always you know share with with all the engineers you know that that actually implementing that make sure that you bring the technology close enough to the local community so through training they should have the no-haul the capability and understanding how to run and operate even if there is capability available we ask them to join us to go to the workshop and they can manufacture themselves this is very important because what we have to do is we're creating dignity and also independent you know uh of the local community so they're able to be independent from outside uh sources because because you know we have here so huge tasks the government also you know so we have to make sure that if there is capability that we can transfer to them why not just do it this is what happened so if i have to go back to your question in terms of technology micro and mini hydro is actually very mature technology that's if you you know that in japan it's uh one of the small micro hydro is like 110 years already old and then in europe more than 50 years okay but but i think your point is even at a local level it is still doable because you're doing it doable have you consider solar yeah uh well different the story with the solar different solar pv it is the most expensive and in terms of efficiency of the of the uh energy also you cannot get as like a hydro of course it's different you know because you have to really calculate uh you know the sun in the peak uh peak hours you have to calculate that and also uh i have to respond to my colleague here that solar pv is mostly the technology is still in the developed countries you know like german america japan you know indonesia up till now still do not have the capability even though actually the the raw material is available here but uh sorry that our country's not spend enough enough fun to research on that so up till now we still do not have the capability even just to make the waffle of the solar pv that is it's a very very hard uh task for us but we have to go that because there is a plenty of sun you know like uh 12 hours in indonesia you okay i bring up this point because i mean the cost of pv uh aside uh there's one school of thought that believes with solar if you can localize it within a village or a community etc and have them generate their own power just on the rooftops basically look one of the big problems with uh uh conventional is there's a lot of inefficiency and loss through the through transmission through the grid but if it's right there a source where it's needed or closer to it uh it just seems to make a lot of sense to me anybody else want to jump in with the question or a comment sir oh sorry yes we'll come to you next uh yes uh i'm salim aleem a professor at the university of vermont in the us originally from pakistan and i'm wondering if the panelists can comment on the issue of conservation of energy which seems to have been missed completely because we've got an invisible power generation potential uh just from improving conservation and efficiency especially in the transmission sector we've estimated in pakistan that 80 percent of our energy demand could be met by improving transmission efficiency in some of the urban areas okay and who would you like to comment on this free for all who would like to have melody go ahead i'd be happy to you know i i think the cheapest and most plentiful form of energy is conservation efficiency and and and with a very rigorous process of baselining understanding consumption and creating awareness around energy usage there is a real opportunity to reduce consumption and become efficient in community cities offices and and you know with major companies i mean my my company 10 years ago we started baselining and measuring our own energy usage and over the last 10 years we've reduced our our energy footprint our person our usage in our company by about 27 percent almost 30 percent so very rigorous process of understanding how to how to reduce your own consumption um another comment i'll make just about solar i think efficiency is so efficiency and conservation you know one of the challenges with solar i've heard a scientist say is night of course you know and technology has a role there to play with solar as well but finding creative ways to apply solar energy is also essential one of our heavy oil operations in in the u.s. we're piloting a technology to convert solar to steam so that we can reduce our usage of natural gas for steam generation and use solar as a supplement so that pilot is a significant technology pilot to see how we can use solar energy as a supplement to displace other other energy usages that can be used elsewhere so technology plays an important role you know in in solar and conservation plays and efficiency plays a very significant role in meeting energy demand absolutely George you wanted to yes you were absolutely right to mention energy conservation because energy conservation energy savings energy efficiency has to be put in common factor of every energy policy everywhere in the in the world because the the cheapest megawatt power is the one we do not consume and we save i see a difference also in in emerging countries and in Europe or in the states in emerging countries the the basic need is to to have enough power enough energy to accompany the growth in Europe it is a little bit different the approach is different because the Europe has decided very strong commitments strong targets in order to reduce energy consumption so as a power producer and and we sell megawatt power and cubic meters of natural gas in Europe we've decided especially because we are mainly in Europe for half of our activities we to integrate the fact that we will sell less electricity less natural gas in the future and therefore we have created a full division dedicated to energy efficiency which is a big one we have 77 000 people working in that division and in order to help our customers either individual corporations or local municipalities local entities to to reduce their consumption and also to to design differently their their plants and to to to have a different vision of their energy future so it's absolutely important and key well there are two things on on the efficiency you know as as if we learn from pertamina it's our our oil and gas company that's so many flare you know they just never using it i can imagine how many megawatt that actually we can catch you know from from that flare you know and this is the first thing the second thing is whenever you talk about the efficiency you have to also talking about the price pricing pricing policy it's a hit in a very you know important aspect most of the developing countries especially indonesia we put so much subsidy that is taking for granted for for those who already having the electricity they think that this is so cheap so they don't have any notion of you know making this you know efficiency in in their you know behavior this is i learned that that really you know very closely once we have an example in one village that actually coffee producer you know we put an expensive but based on on the agreement by the community once they know that the energy is expensive per kilowatt hour they use it very efficiently because why they want to pay as small as possible if you want to pay as most possible so you have to really have an awareness it's close in your in your mind so whenever you don't use that energy you just turn off everything you know this is this is very important you have to to really you know culturally put this attitude of saving the energy is because you have to pay as long as you give subsidy in huge you know numbers then people will just taking easy that this is you know my common that on it's very important having a pricing policy to to be able to address your issue people can be you know efficient using the energy so do it with subsidies do it with price controls let the market determine the price and then people will be forced to be more energy efficient they have to they don't want to spend so much money on energy that's that's the reason why interesting all right anybody uh there's a moment in the front row martin i just wanted to please i think uh in one of the programs it was discussed actually in vienna i think it was a couple of weeks ago was 20 percent reduction in in emissions 20 percent in renewable power and 20 percent improvement in efficiency to to to his point by 2020 and i think this kind of a program at least for for a region for our region makes makes a lot of sense i mean and i fully agree with with able that you know subsidies and india there's a huge subsidies is does provide the consumer the ability to to afford waste because because it's not costing him the true true market value somebody else is paying for right more of it all in this case the government the gentleman in the front row sir hi my name is sami brico i'm a chief executive of amac i have a couple of comments and also a couple of questions i think it was very good that you mentioned the issue about conservation because i think it got a little bit lost in the beginning of the conversation but we picked it up because as you said in many of the places we can actually save a quite a lot of consumption by by conservation but in order to do that also in asia you need to have an unbelievable educational system and about how are we using electricity how are we using energy how are we using actually water and when i go on the streets of jakarta i don't see that yet so i think there is a quite a lot of catch up which we need to do because everybody in the emerging market would like to have the same living standards maybe as it is in the u.s or in europe and they have the dream in order to be able so mobile as they can and they think that by copying maybe some of the bad habits in the u.s and in europe that's a good thing to do but so there is a quite a lot of learning actually which we can which we can take from there in order not to make the same type of mistakes that maybe other cultures has been going through okay when it comes to efficiency it's very important when we speak about efficiency is that there are the grid systems the our technologies today and the hvdc for instance high voltage direct current that's what the shinies are using this on a big time you can move thousands of megawatts from the western side to the eastern side where the consumption is taking place but also you need to pay for this i mean it's not free of charge and and and one of the question which i have is that to the panel there's a lot of r&d has been spent on hvdc's that a lot of r&d has been spent on solar on on hydro on on on on biofuels or also wind farms or even oil and gas industry but how much at the end of the day is going to be transferred from the r&d to the consumer at the end of the day is the consumer ready today in asia to pay double the price or triple the price that's a question one i'm an engineer by background so i can do as many green power generation as you want but who's going to pay for this when we speak about solar and i'm not going to attack solar i think solar need to be part of the equation and we need to continue to work on that but just to give you a feeling to produce one megawatt of solar you need to have 2.4 hectares of land which is or 2.4 acres of land which is one hectare for one megawatt if i put you a gas turbine or diesel generator set of one megawatt i can get this on this stage just to give you a feeling about how what is the footprint we are talking about when we speak about wind is great i think it need to be part of the equation the utilization factor of wind is about 22 to 25 percent in the uk just to give you an example in 2010 bad winter which means that was very cold winter did not have so much winds very good summers we did not have winds the utilization factor dropped from 22 percent to 10 percent which means that the 2500 megawatt which installed on the grid are giving not more than 10 percent of it that means 250 megawatt that doesn't sound so exciting you see so we have issues so my question is a panel we need to think about and what is your what is your view what is carbon pricing is going to play for this who's going to pay for the r&d how much the consumers are want to pay for this and what will be the path forward wow okay there's a lot of questions here let's see who wants to tackle this first ibu i think i think i think i like to have the first pass on this uh i like i like your your firing up the room now on this issue um i we we had lots of discussions about this right and i think we know that for alternative energy technology comes first in line and that costs uh that that that is expensive and uh you know if if if if you know as of as an investor as you know private sectors i think what we like to do as is an open book transparency on you know what is what is the cap irr that we are allowed to have for this you know developing this alternative energy and you know uh then calculated backwards and see what is the price of of energy you know uh produced by that technology but the main problem is samir in this part of the world i mean as long as you have the subsidy there is no clear comparison because you have the subsidy and everything everyone in in the country is comparing it to the subsidy price not to the real market price now unless you take out the subsidy then this alternative energy can move up and can take place uh to replace the fossil fuel but if that doesn't happen you know until uh if if any nation say taun kuda you know it will never happen yeah it will never happen so you need to take out the subsidy first bring it up the renewable energy at the market price and we we can take all the technology costs that you know with as an engineer background samir can do anything uh you know uh very creative alternative energy but without that that's not going to happen all right it will theoretically agree with you i think the problem with subsidies is i think it's uh it's a classic political problem what once you've given it it's extremely difficult to uh to to take it away jordan you wanted to comment yes that that's a very good question the and i agree with the senior brico that that that's a question for all the governments everywhere in the world that is typically a big one in in europe because europe has decided to have very ambitious targets in terms of renewables but if we today even the the wind farms onshore have to be subsidized wind farm offshore massively subsidized uh solar photovoltaic also and therefore and you don't pay only once you pay three times i would like to explain that having said that as a as a group we we participate because it's a logical decision to invest uh when we are an energy group because of the price of the subsidy the price of the electricity which is bought by the government it's a it's an economic choice for one single company perhaps not for the collectivity that's another another problem and it's the problem you you mentioned because sometimes it is paid by the consumer sometimes by the taxpayer let's take an example an island i like this you take an island which has a need of one thousand megawatt for people for industries one thousand megawatt this island the government of this island wants to be green so decides to put one thousand megawatt of wind farms okay perfect that's perfect but uh only when there is wind and there is wind uh for 30 percent of the time for 70 percent of the times there is no wind and no no production and since electricity cannot be stored uh it's difficult because the the consumers want to have electricity 24 hours a day so you have your one thousand megawatt of wind you need to buy to to build one thousand megawatt of uh alternative of uh not solar not yet solar because uh unfortunately during the night there there is there is no no sun and you need electricity even during the night during the night so basically uh gas fired turbine that you can switch on very easily uh when there is no wind and switch off when there is wind so the result of that first you have to build not one thousand corresponding to the the needs but two times two thousand one thousand in so in wind one thousand in gas fired secondly you have to subsidize wind because without subsidy you would not get uh wind uh construction wind farm construction and you pay a third time on the gas turbine because gas turbine could work what are the percent of the time but in that particular case you stop them one during 30 percent of the time so the the cost of the investment is higher 30 percent higher in that case so you you you you you you pay three times but that's perhaps a choice of the governments but the choice has to be taken uh in in in the awareness of this uh of this cost paid either by the taxpayer or by the by the the the the consumer i think i'll take only two points in addition i think on the as regards the subsidy element we've seen for example in india in all the major cities the price of power going up by 300 percent uh and the price of power today is in line with the market what it costs and on market forces uh at about 15 or 16 cents uh which is quite expensive for uh for india from an affordability perspective but even at that price the consumer is not complaining as long as he gets 24 hours continuous power so or electricity so that that's sort of a good example from whose you know if you take away the subsidy would the consumer be willing to pay as long as the goods gets good reliable uh power and on the second point uh with regard to whose to pay i think again uh that's one of the reasons why renewable whether it's solar whether it's wind has to be a part of the solution but not the entire solution and therefore at least we are coming up with a in india we're coming up with a 20 percent renewable number which will cost more to generate but will be uh on on average uh the cost of power will be less because the rest of the 75 percent or 80 percent can generate power at lower price and and the average is what the consumer uh will pay i'm not sure that sort of address is part of your answer but i just would like to address also one thing maybe uh we are talking about the east and asia you know uh context that we understand not the whole community or people that can afford you know to have an energy and i believe that energy is also human right that the government should provide so in a way of talking about subsidy when you talking about subsidy doesn't mean that subsidy has to be taken off all of them but i just make an example very easy for indonesia we have 26 million a consumer uh household consumer on the using of the electricity and and it's so easy because the database is on our utility so why don't you just set up a criteria that if people are using only 30 kilowatt hour up to 50 kilowatt hour per month it is a family that needs subsidy so direct that subsidy to the family that actually you know looking for the their consumption is so easy but no it's it's incredible because the subsidy goes for you know we enjoy subsidy now in this hotel and and and also you know for the very luxurious apartment and everything exactly but it's very hard you know okay this is getting interesting we have time for one quick last question any takers the gentleman on the left please my name is gandhi i'm from ubm i agree to this thought that no the energy mix must include all the different sources but as far as renewables are concerned many countries are like giving other policies and the thought process i believe is because of the economics of scale for example china is now giving a lot of subsidy on led lighting they believe that no in the beginning by giving that subsidy the volume will grow and then they can remove it so the economic scale could be reached so i'm not sure what's your thought in that process who'd you like to respond to that anyone please anybody who would like to take that melody so well you know renewables need to be competitive at scale without subsidy and the you know we talked about the r&d investments that are required to to get renewables competitive at scale what you're describing is you know a period of time where you provide investors an opportunity to invest in the into the operation so that the technology will follow and there have been examples i know cul-bed methane in the united states was an example of that occurring but it's not you know it's not a sustainable model in general so you know i i imagine that you know it could be a possibility that that would work but that is not a sustainable long-term you know operation for for a technical for a resource to be developed that has to be a sustainable operation for investors to be able to invest in a renewable and you know i think that the primary focus should be on the r&d the research and development pilot projects applying those pilot projects in unique ways to make those pilot successful so that they could eventually be applied at scale without subsidies is the is the best model okay uh what we need to do right now is we're bumping up against the limits of time in 30 seconds let's just swing around the whole panel give me a key takeaway from this whole discussion either an idea or something that's actionable starting with prashant i mean i think key takeaway from my perspective is is that in for our region we need to find a solution which is which encompasses all forms of all forms of energy generation and in the larger country certainly like India also nuclear okay and there is clearly a huge scope for improvement in in conservation and and in reduced reduction and renewable generation okay and obviously there's a huge investment required to improve the technology quickly so that it can be can be affordable and sustainable nobody asia-pacific is a very growing region it's an and world we're going to need all forms of of energy at scale and it's just important to continue to stay focused on all forms of energy including conservation i think with the current economic growth of indonesia we should be uh uh uh fully aware that we need all kinds of energy and uh i think we also need to be aware that new alternative energy cost is very expensive and i think in this part of the world the education of i think the younger generations of you know subsidy and also alternative energy should be given at an early stage let's consider small-scale sustainable local ownership okay in every country there is no one solution the solution is in the mix a mix of energy what we call a bouquet of of energy which will be different from one country to another country and in indonesia has the chance to have a coal to have gas to have water to have solar sun and and and also geothermal also indonesia he's one of the most favorite country in that sense well to have it all excellent leaders and gentlemen we'll have to leave the session there thank you for taking part for being with us enjoy your afternoon


Since, I would say that since I'm born, I'm a big movies fan and a fan of movies, I mean this is part of not only of my life as a human being but as an artist, it has been probably my biggest source of inspiration and so much that I decided to create music most of the time without words who could become the soundtrack of the movie that you can invent in your own mind yourself and in that aspect I think music is one of the most interactive art form because it's it lets the people not having a narrative content, it lets the people inventing and creating their own movie in their own mind and be the soundtrack of your next movie is the most beautiful thing that I could dream about.


The president's remarks upon appointing Thurgood Marshall as an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court from the Rose Garden of the White House, the 13th of June 1967. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I have just talked to the Chief Justice and informed him that I shall send him to the Senate this afternoon. The nomination of Mr. Thurgood Marshall, Solicitor General to the position of Associate Justice Supreme Court made vacant by the resignation of Justice Tom C. Clark of Texas. As most of you know, Mr. Marshall is presently serving as Solicitor General. He served on the second highest court in the land, the Court of Appeals, the state of New York, from which place he resigned at my request to come here as Solicitor General. He has argued 19 cases in the Supreme Court since becoming Solicitor General. Prior to that time, he had argued some 33 cases. The statistician told me that probably only one or two other living men have argued as many cases before the court and perhaps less than a half a dozen in all the history of the nation. The Solicitor has had some 50 odd cases. He has lost only eight of those cases. The little background will be given you by George Christian, but Mr. Marshall was first in his class at Howard. He has had a distinguished record as private counsel and as government counsel in courts of the land. I believe he's already earned his place in history, but I think it will be greatly enhanced by his service on the court. I believe he earned the department. He deserves the appointment. He's best qualified by training and by very valuable service to the country. I believe it's the right thing to do, the right time to do it, the right man in the right place. I trust that his nomination will be promptly considered by the Senate. Thank you very much.


Good evening, and welcome to episode 361 of the Private Property Podcast. I'm your host, Osama Andouma Kumano. It's the Wednesday edition of the Private Property Podcast. If you join us for the first time, welcome to your daily dose of all things property, the only property show, the only daily property show in South Africa that caters to your property needs. Welcome to the family. It's absolutely great to have you with us for the first time. We hope you like it. Just stay around and of course, do make sure that you go to our Facebook or YouTube pages to catch up on all the great episodes that you have already missed on. You can of course also catch up on all the great episodes on Spotify and Apple podcasts or whatever you'll get your podcasts. And to all our original viewers of Facebook and Instagram and YouTube, welcome to it. You know how we do every single weekday. You and I have an appointment at 7 p.m. where I'm always in conversation with property experts who help us navigate our property journey. Doesn't matter where we are on our property journey, whether we're looking to buy, to sell, to build, we are renting, we are renting. This certainly is the one-stop-shop on all things relating to property. And of course, talking about the one-stop-shop on property matters, you know that you can catch other great shows across private properties, social media pages. As it is on Wednesday, you can catch Esther Klassen on the first time home buy show later on, where she's always in conversation with people who have not only walked that first time home buying journey, but have gone continued to grow their portfolios from strength to strength. And every Tuesdays and Thursdays, you can catch them by doing what we've got on the farming podcast, tackling all things agriculture. And on Mondays and Fridays, Chad takes us through incredible properties that you can find on www.privateproperty.co.za. And of course, you can catch that every Mondays and Fridays at 8 p.m. And then, of course, there's myself, so I'm going to do my lo-allies on your screens at 7 p.m. And it's always so great to have you with us on the show. It's a Wednesday, it's the second Wednesday of the week. And I know the second Wednesday, we always have somebody from the Apsa-Hollandons team. This evening, we've got a double team, two members from the Apsa-Hollandons team. And we're going to be looking at the consumer insights on the home ownership index that, you know, the Apsa has. You know, we have this conversation every quarter. The person that we always have who's almost become like his piece, definitely part of the fan. He's here often enough, almost the Zim, who's the head of advanced analytics at the Apsa-Hollandons. And this evening, we're also joined by Unumusso Cuevo, who's a data science manager at Apsa-Hollandons. Muzi Unumusso Griming, and thank you so much for having us on the show, for joining us rather on the show. So one of the things that Unumusso did of A was comment that Unumusso and I are, you know, matching. So we've got a great color combination going on. And it wasn't planned. I love serendipitous moments like this. I don't think we've actually ever had it on the show before where a guest and I match like this. And I think orange is such a red color. Like it's not a common color, like black. You know, it's easy to match with black, but orange is such a unique color that it certainly is special. And I think one of the things is definitely looking forward to having Unumusso for the first time in the show. We're looking forward to having her on the show for future episodes when we tackle this particular topic. And before we look at some of the, you know, the insights from from quarter three Muzi, the question I would ask you every time I have a conversation is what is the Apsa home ownership, you know, index for people probably don't know what exactly is it and what does it measure? Thanks so much. The Apsa home owner sentiment index, it tries to measure exactly that. It tries to measure the sentiment, what makes it stand out, you know, from other main measures that we've seen in the leader state space is that we want to know what is happening in the hearts and minds of actual consumer every day people, me and you, not necessarily interviewing intermediaries or any other industry stakeholders. So we will contact a couple of respondents and we'll ask them a series of questions to try and get a dipstick of what they think and how they're feeling about the property industry. And where we found it useful, especially in the interesting rollercoaster we've been on over the past 18 months is that it's been able to give us a good sense of where everyone is, where the consumer is, and has been able to give us a very useful leading indicators for where we can expect the market to move in the coming quarters. And I mean, I think one of the great things and we always talk about it was that data is great, but data for the sake of data isn't particularly useful, right? We, there's certain things that you want to be able to do, especially with great rich data, and to use it to drive certain decisions. And I think this is one of the benefits, certainly I can see it from an organization perspective, but also then from a consumer perspective, when you're reading the report on a quarterly basis and want to get a sense of what the sentiment is from people who are already kind of in the property space, who are probably home owners or who are investors around certain things within the property space, and we'll get into that. And I think almost I want to bring it in. When we look at your Q4, Muze and I do this conversation every month, we're looking at every single quarter, but when we look at Q3 rather, you say, I'm already in Q4 mode, then Q3 did it pull the number on me? And Q4 is already moving so quickly. I think we're going to be ending the year in two weeks time. The way it's moving feels like we're going to have ended the year in the next two weeks. But Muze, I want to look at Q3 caps, if you can share with us about what some of the latest stacks with Q3 in the report are. Thanks, Amma. So what we're seeing is that the overall confidence together with all sub indices, they rebounded up to quarter one levels after the dips from quarter two. If you can remember, quarter two results were largely influenced by the acts of violence and destruction on property that we saw at the beginning of the early parts of July. But what we're seeing now is that sentiment is up five percentage points and it currently sits one percentage point ahead of quarter one. And in fact, this is the second highest sentiment that we've seen since the inception of the HSI report. And the main drivers that our respondents are citing, it's property's ability to create long-term value. They see it as a secure asset. And it's also the potential for it to really create long-term income. What we've also interestingly picked up is that sentiment towards selling, which has largely lagged pre-lockdown level, it has finally started to recover and we're seeing it now sitting close to the 2019 levels. And there's really two camps of respondents. So there are respondents that are seeing the opportunity to get a really good selling price currently in the market. And then there's another set of respondents who are potentially continuing to feel some financial strain, citing that if you can no longer afford a property, then you should probably rather sell. And if we compare this to some of the data that we're seeing coming through from the national regulator data that's showing that credit granted has actually increased 6% quarter in quarter, as well as the fact that we are unfortunately also seeing this decrease in the number of consumers in good standing, it really starts to paint a picture of a consumer group that is concerned around affordability. If we also look a little bit forward, this could spell some challenges once interest rates start to rise because expense and debt will also start to increase. And of course, this will mean that it's going to place consumers under additional pressure. I think I got excited to have you join this conversation with Muzie and I because we are on together. And I forgot to mention one thing to our viewers that I know they're already messaging us about and want to find out if we are doing it this evening. And that's, of course, the daily competition that we run. Of course, it is still happening. So do not worry. There is just my excitement having somebody new and somebody that I'm also matching with, right? I think that's never happened before. We are, of course, running that incredible competition on our Facebook page where you send a chance of walking away with 500 grand in cash every single evening. We'll be taking a break slightly later on in the show to get a sense of who might be the lucky winner of that 500 grand in cash. Remember, the only way you can walk away with the money is that you need to be watching us live and drop us a message down here below to claim your price. So that is me getting excited. The competition is still on. It's not going anywhere. We've got 500 grand in the money bag yesterday. We had Farhan Siddiqui claiming that 1500 grand. So we are going to be back at 500 grand and of course be able to win that cash. Now, Muzie, one of the really great things that you mentioned, and it's actually so much great, but it's heartening because we of course saw it a few weeks back, was when you mentioned how there was the sentiment, certainly, when we looked at Q2, the violence that we saw in that particular portrait certainly had an effect on the people's sentiment and certainly people who are in property. Perhaps share with us what have been the other social economic or even social political events that affected Q3 results, especially as you indicated that the sentiment overall went up in the second highest that we've had since the sentiment index was started. So positive sentiment was really just driven around the opportunities they are in getting with selling price currently. And then the negative sentiment really was the biggest driver for it with respect to the negative responses that we got. It was the lack of economic prosperity for both households and for the country. And there's still a measure of uncertainty that still exists when it comes to COVID-19. What we also found, however, is that there are a number of respondents that would really like to participate in home ownership, but are unable to. So respondents who do not own a property, they had the highest growth in buying sentiment quarter on quarter. But they also still continue to cite concerns around affordability, risk to income, and given just the current economic environment. And I think this talks a little bit to the challenges facing South Africa when it comes to unemployment, especially among of course this evening in conversation with the Apsa Home Loans team who is a data science manager as well as the head of advanced analytics. And we're looking at the consumer home, the home owner sentiment index, we're looking at the quarter three insights, and of course taking your questions and comments on our social media pages. We've got my question here saying that I always find these updates very insightful and helpful to yourself as a property investor. And I think one of the realities with being a property investor is you really want to get a good sense of different data sets that help and certainly inform how you make your investment decisions. Sometimes when you're buying for your primary residence, you don't need to consume as much of this data because you know you're just buying this one property during your family are going to live there. But the moment the decision is about investing in property and buying multiple properties and trying to figure out what kind of strategy you also want to have conversations like this certainly help in you making better decisions and just more strategic decisions on your property portfolio. Now Mozi, our resident home owner sentiment index guru, I want to bring you in. I think when we look at the sentiments towards buying and how it's essentially reached an all-time high earlier this year, perhaps when you look at what you've seen, especially given how the sentiment has recovered to pre-lockdown levels, perhaps you're with us that relationship because when I've looked at it as a property investor and always intrigued when I look at certainly the stock that we're constantly getting in the market, how long it's also just staying on the market. And as much as we're also keeping up with the registrations and the sales, they're not moving as quickly as the stock is coming on the market. So can you just show a little bit for us when it comes to that? Certainly, so for this one we're kind of going to go down memory lane a little bit. Sentiment in Q3 or sentiment towards buying property in Q3 is currently sitting at 81%. Now to remind everyone, we were sitting at an all-time high of 82% in Q1. We saw a reduction, as Noam Musso mentioned, given the acts of violence and destruction to property that we saw in Q2, essentially in Q3 sentiment towards buying property has pretty much recovered. And also earlier Noam Musso mentioned that sentiment towards selling has finally recovered to pre-lockdown levels. Now in our conversations since we went into lockdown, we saw most of our indicators recovering and even exceeding pre-lockdown levels, except sentiment towards selling property, which remains stubbornly low. What this means now with sentiment towards selling, it had remained flat in Q2 and we took a bit of a dip in terms of buying sentiment and that's where we saw the gap close. And many of our conversations in the last year were around this gap between buying and selling sentiment because more people were saying buy, buy, buy and fewer people were saying sell. So it kind of gave a gap between buying sentiment and selling sentiment and that then resulted in what we had predicted last year, which kind of started happening this year. We saw house prices go through a cycle of some healthy growth and our industry stakeholders, when we spoke to them, they were talking about stock levels that were starting to come down. The other thing that we saw happen last year when the market recovered was that we saw a lot of first-time buyers coming into the market and when a first-time buyer comes into the market, they typically, well, if they're first-time buyer by definition, they always come in, they take a property that's available for sale and they don't necessarily have a property that they can sell or put back on the shelf for someone else to buy. And that's one of the things that kind of drove down the stock levels as we saw last year. The other thing that happened with interest rates having come down, there were a lot of non-first-time buyers who either upgraded their property or wanted to purchase their first investment property because now this was affordable. This also resulted in somewhat of a decline in overall stock levels. What we saw this time with the recovery and selling sentiment, as Non-Muslim mentioned, the one thing was around affordability where respondents are starting to talk about affordability and potentially you're needing to think about selling your property if you can no longer afford it or even selling your property to enable you to upgrade to another property. And I think the difference here is the dynamic in the market where we are potentially going to go into a cycle where people are still buying properties, but now we're starting to see people release the properties that they currently own back into the market. That's kind of the implication of the recovery in sentiment towards selling. But the gap between sentiment towards buying and sentiment towards selling, sentiment towards selling has recovered to pre-lockdown levels, but buying sentiment is very close to all-time highs. So we're still seeing that relative gap where there's relatively more would-be buyers than would-be sellers. We're going to look at something that you've touched on and that's the interest rates. But I want us to take a quick break and get a sense of who this evening's winner of that 500 dryings in cash is. Remember if your name is the one that is picked out, you have to drop us a text down here below in order to claim your price. We'll be taking more of your questions and comments just after this. And the lucky winner of that 500 dryings in cash this evening goes to Tabiso Mufugeng. I hope you're watching us do drop us a message down here below. And of course we are going to make sure that you get that 500 dryings in cash. And in the event where Tabiso doesn't raise his hand, then you know the normal thing is going to happen. We're going to put that back in the money bag and it's going to be 1000 runs that will be up for grabs tomorrow evening. So Tabiso Mufugeng, you've got until the end of the show to get in touch with us and let us know that you are watching us alive in order to claim that price. And of course I'm still in conversation with Umu Zizem as well as Numboso Sibego, who are from Sibego, who are from the Apsa Home Loans team. I'm looking at the Home Owners Sentiment Index, looking at the Q3 results. We have this conversation every quarter because we understand the importance of getting data and having it dissected because sometimes sometimes you may not want to read the report. Although I can attest this report is actually a really great report. It's nice and easy, great graphics, it's great to understand. It's not one of those 300 page long reports that you struggle to read through. It's really easy, light, accessible reading. So I do urge you to actually read it every time we have this conversation because it really does give you good insight into some of the things that could help you make better property decisions. Before the break, you mentioned one of the things that you touched on was of course interest rates. One of the big things that we saw that in many ways the low interest rate carried us through the past couple of quarters. When you look at, and I know that you don't like talking about your old expectations, but certainly what are the expectations for the coming quarters, especially given that we know interest rates are going to go up. As much as there certainly was a school of thought that say bye, bye, bye, these are historically low interest rates. We might not see them again anytime soon. The reality is they were here because of the crisis we found ourselves in and not because we sort of gradually took them down. And we know that they're going to go up, and they're not going to go up in seven years time, right? I mean, we'd love that. Listen, if the Reserve Bank is listening, I think we would absolutely love to take that long for them to rise. But we know that's not going to be the case. So when we look at the fact that we know they're going to be rising, and they are one of the factors that have carried us through the past quarters, what are the predictions for the coming quarters given the imminent rise? Correct. So we think interest rates where they are, they have bottomed out. They're at the bottom. We don't think we're going to go nowhere. We think we're going to start going up. The one view that we have put forward, and it's a view that we've had for a while, is that we think interest rates will remain where they are for the rest of this year. And we'll see the first 25 basis point increase coming in March with another 50 basis point increases later on next year. So either one increase of 50 basis points or two increases of 25 basis points. I think one interesting thing or one important thing to highlight is we don't think interest rates will increase at the speed that they came down. So in three years' time, we don't believe that interest rates are going to be sitting where they were sitting in January last year. For example, we don't think the primary ending rate is going to be sitting at 10% in three years' time. We think it will still be slightly lower. But we do expect about a 75 basis point increase in the coming year. And what the big rate cuts did last year is we think they've prompted somewhat of a structural shift. As we mentioned, the supply and demand dynamic shift resulted in an increase in overall property prices. And this happened exceeding inflation. So house prices grew in real-time. And we think consumers are just used to where interest rates are sitting now. We also saw many consumers reaching for more expensive properties across the board. So first-time buyers couldn't afford they were able to now participate in the market. First-time buyers were going to buy any way we saw they afforded slightly more expensive properties. And we also saw non-first-time home owners or rather non-first-time buyers. Who were bringing forward the upgrade decisions. So those who had planned to upgrade this year could upgrade last year. Those who planned to upgrade next year could upgrade this year, etc. So we think as interest rates start to increase, it will bring down a bit of a slow down in terms of what we saw. And I need to use my words carefully. We are not expecting the market to slow down. We just expect to slow down in how quickly the market has been grown. So we think the market will continue to grow. We just don't think that the market is going to continue as quickly as what it's been running right now. So we still expect house prices to continue going up potentially starting to slow down. And I mean we don't expect the slow down in the growth rate to happen immediately. We expect that to start kind of happen gradually, eventually halfway through next year and even into the second half of the year. You know, Numusso, one of the things that Umusi is touched on is around people upgrading their homes. Then we've obviously seen I think the great thing about the lower interest rates is people who are living in let's say a 1.5 in property. We're like, well, now I can actually qualify for let's say a 1.8 and I want to go for it. But this concept of upgrading obviously doesn't always extend to having to buy a completely different property. But some people it can be as sort of small scale or as less drastic as doing renovations in your particular property where you now are in a space where you can do certain renovations in whether property you're living in or your other properties. What came out from the support when it comes to the sentiment around renovations? So renovation sentiment has actually been one of these interesting sentiments to track because largely there have been a lot of changes. But what we saw was an interesting new trend in quarter three of 2020 where we saw non-first time home owners that generally scored quite low renovations sentiment. We've seen them start to now score quite high either first or second. We believe a big part of this is potentially the adjustment in monthly household expenses, which has made renovation expenditure a lot more viable. So, you know, reduction in travel and number of holidays that people are taking, entertainment, all of that sort of funneling into renovations. So what we're also seeing is that respondents are citing the potential increase in value that can come out through these renovations. And they are also expecting that they're going to get higher returns when they sell. But there's also another dynamic that plays out because the upgrading decision, it's also a bit different for many non-first time home owners as a lot of them are living in what they believe will be there for forever home. So it's quite tricky to move a settled family away, you know, kids away from their friends, from school. So it's just a lot more admin that's involved in that as compared to first time home owners or non-home owners. And I think one of the things that's happened is that our winner this evening has, in fact, claimed their prize. So congratulations to Tabisso Mufuging, who's going to be walking away with that 500 rands in cash. Thank you very much. And so that is, of course, us still on 500 rands for tomorrow evening. So all you have to do, if you want to be just like Tabisso, make sure that you comment on the Pint post on our Facebook page, where we want to find out some of the nuggets that you have learned while watching the show. And of course, we want to reach that bold target of 20,000 comments. And if you are the lucky winner, then if you set a chance of walking away with that 500 rands in cash, then all you have to do is to be watching us live in order to claim that prize. Now, Mufuging, I want to come back to you. When we look then at the sentiment, what's the sentiment when you look at buying versus renting this porter? Because I think this is one of those areas that is just generally contentious. And I think now more than ever, it has also become quite contentious with a lot of people, I'll say general sentiment, being that, look, this is a great time to buy, why pay somebody else's bond. And I don't ascribe to you to that philosophy. But they're like, well, this is a great time. You're probably going to be paying the same amount of bond payment was going to be low. But when you look at the sentiment of buying versus renting, what does it look like for quarter three? So renters and investors, they continue to be made for each other. Renters scored the lowest in buying versus renting sentiment. So more of them still preferring to rent rather than to buy. And the biggest drivers that they are citing is around the fact that there's a lack of job security, and they're not able to to afford buying a property at the stage. And renting really solves both these. It gives them that relative flexibility that they need. I think one of the things I'm really glad when renters, I say, go the extra mile, but not buying too tight. They're being cut off right now. And the buyer property to cost is no interest rates. When, for the most part, I always say that no interest rates are known contender of the primary and enterprise of buying a property. The similar factors that we use to consider, there are certainly ways of taking advantage. That is the primary reason. And then you need to go back and probably assist and base in whether you can move forward with things, especially when that's wrong to it. You've got to take advantage of things that you can take advantage of for a year and then you can take advantage of things that you can take advantage of. You know, data is lacking, you can take advantage of what you have to take advantage of. It's not going to be the case. But then things are going to be taken advantage of. I love that we're still in a market where the ranges and the interest rates are exactly what we're talking about. That was a post-conflict of the show, but that the one thing I was asking you every single time you look here and you know that the show is not quite like it. But it's the last time that I will get to asking you this question. Is the market still looking healthy? I think we'll see our indicators on the acquisition side. So overall sentiment towards buying versus rating and sentiment towards investing. I think we'll see those remain buoyant or remain close to where they are. I do suspect that we'll start seeing sentiment towards selling continue to creep up as we as we've seen property owners enjoy the benefits of pricing increases. I do think that we'll hit a bit of pressure next year once we start seeing those interest rates go up. Maybe our indicators might come down slightly, but I think overall it'll be a positive story for the property market. Fortunately for us, the consumer has a long memory and I think what's kind of happened in the property space over the past year and a half has been positive and I think the consumer will carry that forward for the next while. What was the, I know that this is the last time that I'm speaking to you on this show, but I know that you and I are going to stay together. Thank you so much. It's always up to you to have your time with us and I know that it will be fun talks somewhere along the line. So thank you for what is going on in the show and really being able to break down what can be a very boring topic in such a necessity where you've got to always find an interesting piece of your course to use for the future. And I think we're certainly going to love having you on this or one of the best gift with Portrait as we tackle the as we always talk about, so we could read it to you. To both of you, thank you so much for joining us on this show. Thank you so much. Thank you. It was a pleasure. And directly from all of us who are going to be the finance manager and as well as the music. Wrapping up the Wednesday edition of the product conference with myself, because I'm working on tomorrow. And then actually, because you haven't with us on the show this evening, and we're back with this on this Wednesday, so you can have the first time from tomorrow, so this is the class and I think it's going to be so great.