Hello everyone welcome back today to CRT MarketWatch. This is an exclusive show dedicated to the CRT and higher end pro video monitor market mostly through eBay that's what we're looking at today so let me just get into some details on what we're gonna actually be doing in today's episode. This is gonna fall in line with other MarketWatch episodes where we're gonna look at pro CRT monitor sales on eBay in North America and every monitor must support 240p through RGBS without modification. We're gonna be looking at sales data for September 9th to November 30th in 2020. Prices are not gonna include tax and they also will not include a make-and-offer price if one was not listed. I've started a thing called working price points for each PVM line and I'll explain this more when we're looking at a price point for a PVM line but this is what I consider a grade B to A kind of not the best quality or condition but definitely one that is working and doesn't need to fully be serviced it may need some calibration it's a PVM that you should be able to buy hookup and use not really needing a lot of circuit board repair or anything like that that's gonna be lower than a grade of what I'm considering on this working price point. We're gonna highlight specific monitor sales and then we're gonna look at market trends and we're gonna do some analysis of some of those sales. We're gonna start off today with Ikegami CRT monitor sales. We've got a 1416R that sold in September for 287 and then a 149R that sold for $225 and then the bottom one is a 2017 RA on May 3rd for $153 you notice it says PU beside that that means that it is pickup only so no shipping involved. If there's not something like that designated next to the sale listing then it was including the shipping costs so that's not a bad price if you could get a couple of CRTs that do 240p now these are on the lower end side in the earlier 90s to mid 90s models. The one highlighted sale was the HTM 1517R and the picture there and that is a multi-format monitor so it accepts signals beyond 480i so it goes 480p and then all the way up to 1080i so it actually does some high-definition stuff and much more desirable that's along the lines of those quality of like a 14L5. JVC had a couple sales too again these companies that we're talking about first off are not gonna have huge numbers these are more the ones that you are outliers that did make broadcast and professional quality monitors but they're not searched for as much as the Sony's you also do generally get a lower price point on many of these first off there's H150CG that is a 14 inch screen 750 TV line broadcast quality monitor online with like a BVM F5U this one had no RGBS component card it sold for $324 shipped however you can add a card and there are those cards are available secondary on eBay and they're made for a reasonable price generally under $100 for that custom card so that's a fair entry point for a higher quality JVC monitor and the one under that but that is a 16 inch and that's actually a digital monitor it accepts 240p all the way up to 1080i or for $462 that's a pretty good price here's a look at that specific listing this was on an auction and the only thing was it did have some scuff marks on the screen which you can kind of see on this picture right here and this monitor should have a protective anti-glare layer on that screen so the idea being that if you bought this monitor you can get it and remove that anti-glare screen and have a clean screen underneath it and for $462 shipped that is a really good price for a 16 inch multi-format high-end broadcast level monitor so next we're going to be looking at is these Olympus monitors and you'll notice only three Olympus sales these were specifically listed as Olympus OEVs CRTs and I will tell you this Olympus OEV 143 model is a direct copy of the Sony PVM 20M2 MDU medical version which is the preferred version of the M series M2 units that has the additional second RGB and component input on the back and the only real difference is the color scheme and the fact that it says Olympus on the front and the back of the shell so three of those sold around $350 each there was one that was cheaper so those tend to sell for a little bit less than what the M2 MDU unit would that a lot of these listings for Olympus come from old medical supply companies or medical recycling companies on eBay and they tend to not have the proper equipment to test these CRTs fully so a lot of the listings will look like what these do in the pictures behind me where it won't actually show anything displayed it'll say it's power tested might even show a screen with some of the menus pulled up like it is in this picture and the screen might even look discolored however most the time that's a good sign that it's working and so you do take a little bit of a risk but I found that more often than not you're gonna get a much better deal with these Olympus's just because they're not searched for as often and not as many people seem to know about them all right now let's move into the Sony BVM sales these are the best of the best some of the biggest sales that happened this month were specifically BVM now first off we've got a little one this is a D9 H1U and it is a field monitor now look there is a DH5U in the 9 inch and that has the built-in controls I've done a video specifically on that monitor where I serviced one this one is a H1U so it doesn't have the controls built in it has a separate control board that's what the 10R is so that's valued that BKM control board is valued at about 200 to $300 right now on eBay and then this monitor also included the BKM 129X card so that's a good deal because that one is again 200 to $300 and then finally the tube on this monitor only had 55 hours listed on it so that's really low the only other thing that is worth noting is it only had the 16 by 9 bezel on it and this one the small field monitor it is not like the larger D series monitors those from the 14 inch and up have an insert in them that you can remove at least the D14s and the D20s they have an insert in them that you can remove and you can either put the insert can be either 4 by 3 or 16 by 9 however on this smaller D9 it is the entire frame on the bezel so you have to unscrew it and take the entire bezel off with the plastic and everything and then expose all the wires around the front of the CRT if you don't want to have the 16 by 9 bezel on there and those can be kind of difficult to obtain at this point generally costs about $200 and so that's just the one disappointing thing about that D9 is that 69 bezel is stuck unless you want to dremel it I did an entire video on this monitor so I'll not cover it really much at all here but it was a huge sale it was the most expensive one time monitor sale and it was the only monitor that was sold on eBay that was listed listed as refurbished so that is something I want you to know those are the two main BVMs that were sold one other thing I want to mention on that D9 is to remember that it does accept 240p up to 1080i so it is also multi-format just like the D32 the BVM8045Q that you see there from October was $300 it was picked up so it was again not not shipped the others were shipped and that one is analog only and similar to like the 804 series which we'll talk about soon here that's a PVM and we're gonna get into the Sony PVM CRT sales and of course we're gonna start with these monitors that I just mentioned the 804 series now there is an 804 series monitor that we're not talking about that is the 8040 because that only supports S video and composite however the 41Q, 42Q, 44Q and 45Q all have models that do support RGB sync and 240p and 480i so that's a very popular PVM for either people starting to get into a PVM and getting their first one or someone that is getting one to use for testing purposes or for videography purposes and those 10 are selling a lot you had 12 sales in September and then 13 sales in October and then 22 sales in November so a total of 47 CRTs all together for $8200 during those three month time period I do have our pricing here the lowest that was sold was $70 and it was a parts slash repair monitor and it was shipped so for $70 you can get an extra monitor for parts or try to fix one and then the highest was a $300 grade A monitor that was sold again including shipping so that would have been top quality and serviced a little bit and looked really nice the average working price point again for that like B minus grade up to about an A minus grade the average price point for that shipped was $220 for those 804 Q series monitors again great monitors if you're looking for something small and versatile those will accept nearly every kind of sync input I really do like them for the bench purposes and here's some other smaller monitors that I wanted to point out to you to you that were sold during this time period you've got the 9L series the 9L2 and the 9L3 those are both after the 804 series so they're a little bit later and they so they're a little newer a little bit of a redesign and you'll see right here at the power button point on the background picture how it does not have the same loop pull hooks that the 804 series has it has just kind of a molded plastic knob instead so that's something that's significantly different on there and then it does accept cards in this one so you do need a 129x card if you want to do RGB in this one those are sold for about $200 a piece there was four of those and then the other one I wanted to mention was the five inch monitors those have been selling like crazy they're really getting up there averaging about $290 a piece I feel like the working price for one of those delivered right now is $300 or just really popular for some reason to get one of those small ones now we're going to start looking at the sony pvm 13 inch sales that occurred and we're going to start with the 13 numbered series this could be anything that is 13 and then a number after that most of them are like 51 q 54 q 53 md I also included any n series monitors that did support rgb so there's a couple in six us on the list and one and two you and then there's some older monitors on there like a 1390 and a 1271 q but just a ton of these monitors sold we had a total of 21 sales this quarter and that amounted to $7454 the average sales price being $355 now that is for all of them together so the lowest sale was a 1342 q that is $150 and it was picked up now that is one of the older ones on the list that monitor does do rgb however it does not have an onboard service menu and it does not have speaker support for the mono speaker on on it for the rgb line the highest sale was a pristine condition 1354 q which is the model before the 20m2 you and that's sold for $610 shipped the working pvm average price for again that b minus grade to a minus grade shipped you're looking at about $380 now look do not get confused here this does not include anything that has really been professionally serviced or had any kind of parts repaired increase the value these are just ones that you're going to get kind of in the working shape listed as working on ebay that's a pretty good price point for that and again this is ebay working pvm average price $380 range for one of those shipped now let's get into the m series which is one upgraded step from that these tend to be a little bit newer than those 50 models and 40 models and 90 models that we were talking about on the prior slide again a lot of sales here just tons of them throughout this month we're going to look at a couple in specific that i have noted here you notice one of these outliers in september 15th for $995 and os that is actually new old stock so that came in the original box and then was shipped with original paperwork and original foam so kind of new inbox complete inbox tested kind of a unit so you can understand why that one would cost a bit more and then we've got a couple that were picked up now i did also include the m4s you'll notice so the difference between the two of these monitors is the m2 and the m4 are pretty much exactly the same except the m4 has higher resolution on its display so it has an 800 tv line tube where the 14 m2 only has a 600 tv line tube and other than that the monitors are pretty much identical as far as performance and function the 14 m4 though has always got some outliers on it where the prices are just crazy on it so we have one from october 10th for $1,600 and then one from november 14th for almost $1,300 and then we'll have some more reasonable prices on here for some others like one for $630 and around that $600, $700 price point but look at this listing here again this is over $1,600 and it's in texas it's for this 14m4u and it says it sold it's from a reputable seller i didn't see it relisted or sell again so i thought that was incredible so again let's look closely here at some 14m series sales statistics we've got 10 sales of that m2 for a total of just under $5,000 the average sales price $499 now the lowest was a $193 for a working that was pickup only and then the highest was that new old stock for $995 the working pvm average price is $430 shipped and that is just about $50 over the last series that we talked about and that makes complete sense how you're getting this little bit better a little bit newer monitor and you have to pay a little bit more premium for that now if we jump down here to the 14m4 we're going to have six sales totaling $5,000 almost $5,100 and our average sales price is $848 with the lowest sale being 445 that was a local pickup and then the highest sale being that $1,600 listing that we had seen so that all together makes this one always hard to judge what it's exactly going to sell for because i believe the working pvm average price would be $700 $800 around that number but still sometimes it just seems to sell consistently for more than that for some reason that's the m-series data now we're going to go and move on to that next progression of monitor and this being the final line that sony had in the pvms and again we're only looking at this l2 series the l-series l2 so the l2s are 600 tv line monitors and they are again made in the early 2000s up to the mid 2000s we're going to start with that 14 inch you'll see a lot of sales there the highest being $891 again just crazy more of them go for that $430 price point to $500 and then if we look down here at the 20 l2s we did have three of those sell and again we had one that was 1375 but that was shipped and that was new old stock in the box and then we had one that go for 450 shipped and 300 picked up i'll be honest with you those 20 l2s that's pretty darn reasonable to me first off look at this one whoever got this one got a really good deal $450 shipped for this working good condition 20 l2 it's listed as multi format it's not now this one is a white version because it's the medical unit and it actually sold for again 1375 shipped but it was in the original box tested with all the goodies in there i can't really fault anybody for buying this if you're going to spend that kind of money and it's really hard to have a lot of peace of mind with these things so might as well spending on one that's still in the new box and in as good a condition as possible even if it is going to cost you almost $1400 it's if it's something you want it may be worth that investment so we got the 14 l2s eight total sales on there $3,700 average selling price of $467 the lowest being a $325 shipped the highest being $891 shipped the working pvm price point for that i have that at about $460 right now so that's what i would think you would have to pay between 430 to 460 on that one a little bit higher than the m series but not very much the only reason it's higher is because it's a little newer and other than that not much difference there 20 l2 again three sales for $2,100 it's just over $700 average the lowest sale being a $300 pickup and the highest being that one we just looked at that was $1375 i'm giving this an a working pvm average price of about $750 because again this one's hard to tell where it's going to be listed so if you get it for $750 or less that is the price point for right now for ebay for that monitoring good working condition here are the 20 inch m series we transitioned out of the 14 inch on that last slide and we're moving into the 20 inches and up for the rest of our show today and we're going to start with the m2s and m4s so this is the same scenario that i discussed with the 14 m series where you have the 2s and the 4s the 20 m2s i did have a couple that were pickups only and then some that were fixed i put fix next to those because those definitely had a serious repair on them that needed an internal circuit board fix uh so you've got that one that had a fix on september 10th for 591 and this extremely cheap one down here was a pickup and it had a problem in it kind of a parts monitor down there at the bottom and then the other ones here the 20 m4s see this was kind of wild there were 20 m4s that sold and they all some of them sold for less than what the 14 m4 sold for shipped so that's an interesting statistic to look at we'll look at those numbers a little closer here first the 20 m2 sales that's a total of $4200 nearly average selling price of $596 lowest being that $113 sales price that we talked about it was a parts only monitor and it was pickup only the highest being $895 so this one's going to have that working pvm average sales price point of $750 and up very similar to that l2 that we just talked about that 20 l2 both of these are so close to each other that you have to give them nearly the same grade on price points plus they don't have very much features that differentiate one from the other now the 20 m4 is again the high resolution tube so that does show a little bit better on that 20 inch screen and i will also tell you that this is not now this is not the case with the 14 inch version of this monitor but when it comes to the 20 inch the 20 m4 that tube inside there is compatible with one of those other multi format monitors like the 20 l5 pvm or any of the 20 inch bvms that need an 800 tv line tube or up the 20 m4 youtube is compatible with it not the 14 m4 that's not compatible with the bvms that are 14 inches just the 20 m4 uses the same tube so that makes it a little bit more valuable again five sales 4800 dollars 974 dollars for average selling price the lowest was 630 dollars the highest 1240 dollars this working pvm average price point has to be about 1200 dollars i feel like they could just sell pretty much right away for 1200 dollars shipped if they are in a really good working condition all right now we're getting into the specialty monitor sales now this was actually someone that was on my patreon page and he was able to sell his 2530 that was in good working condition for just over 1200 dollars so it was nice to see that monitor be able to sell we also had a 2950 q which is one of my favorites it sold for 2000 dollars picked up now this one did include a box and the speakers it was in really nice condition so i feel like that was kind of a steal for anybody who got that at 2000 dollars so we had those two big sales the 2530 and the 2950 25 2950 was only available for pickups and no shipping on that one and there were 2030s that sold three of those for about 2100 dollars so those were selling between 800 and 700 a piece for shipped working 2030s sometimes they would get up as high as 900 there were some 1954 q sales for 1300 dollars there were four of them but every single one of them surprisingly was a repair model and it was untested so it was parts and they were all pickups so not really any blowout or unbelievable deals or sales on that 54 q all right so now we're going to start with the pvm multi-format series monitors starting with the 14l fives and we had six 14l fives that sold three were shipped and three were pickup omelies and we had an average price of 631 dollars almost 3800 dollars for this the total price on those six sales average sale price was uh or the lowest price was 545 dollars the highest sale price was 900 dollars i again have to give this working pvm a minus to b minus grade on this one 800 dollars and up for a shipped version of this if you can get it for less than that it's a pretty good price so this is again a multi-format monitor it's a little bit smaller in size than the bvm's it's got a speaker on there and it's really easy to use compared to the bvm's really nice looking pvm i feel like it's very often overlooked for things like the 14m for you for some reason but anyway i want you to notice that a lot of those were picked up at 599 so i feel like that's a good deal but the real deal where the two people in september who bought the two that were sold for 545 and shipped so if you got those for 545 dollars shipped then those are two steels those those sales you can see there's two sold and then the same thing was with the 599 listing there was three sold those were all picked up from the same seller so now we're going to move on to the 20l fives which is the bigger version of that l5 that we just looked at the 14 inch version of now we're going to look at the six sales of this monitor i want you to notice one big thing on there that the majority of these were pickup only so they'd go for sale on ebay generally for a buy it now price pick up only and they would sell and someone would have to go get it the only one that was shipped was that one in september 28th that was sold for buy it now for 1140 dollars again these sales have just kind of popped up and so you have to know when they're coming for the most part and then they go right away and again they're not being shipped so you have to be ready to go travel i know that the last two i listed again in the patreon page and people told me that they went and bought those and went and picked those up those were in pennsylvania for that kind of a price you got to be just ready to go have the money ready sitting there and once it comes available just buy it and hopefully be able to make a trip to go pick these up the average sale price for the six monitors was 1349 dollars the total of the six sales was 4900 almost so the lowest sale was 850 dollars it was pickup and it did need some minor repairs i could tell from the picture and then the highest sale was a $2000 pickup and at the end of october now working at pvm price point here i'm giving this one a $2000 price point just for one that's working that you could go pick up this is not including any kind of shipping it could be more than that could be a little bit less than that so that's the price point if you could find it for 850 dollars or $1200 shipped you better just grab it when you see it because somebody else will right now so here's a look at the last two that sold they were 1250 they were still in the working environment when they were pictured and listed taken basically by a salvage person out and then resold right away the same person was uh sold a couple of 14 l fives too so now let's get into some statistics on these sales i have some pretty bright and colorful graphs here for you now we're going to look first at the total sales by size and it's separated here in each one of these bars in this graph represents a month so first starting in september october and november kind of made this graph so you could see that some of these areas are consistently in the same amount of sales each month so the green for example that's all the 14 inch size monitors that sold this month had more 14 inches and this month had less blue had the blue stands for the 20 inch and above this first month had less 20 inches uh however if you look at the red and ones that's the number of smaller monitors that sold and that is pretty darn consistent right there over the free by the time period the same number in the same amount of sales goes on uh you know a couple of three four thousand dollars each month on that monitor and then the big outlier here is this blue big section for the last 15 500 in november that's being heavily driven by that bvm d 32 that we looked at earlier all right moving on now to our total sales for the quarter if you look at our quarter three sales from our last quarter we had a total of 59 thousand dollars in sales well this quarter we totaled out to 72 100 and sales that's an increase of 13 200 are pretty much 23 in increase in total sales volume and then if we break that down and look at the number of total units sold for this quarter there were 132 units sold and units each unit is a pvm and in this quarter we had 150 units sold so that's an increase of 18 units are almost 14 percent so again we're still going through a growth period right now and just some of the key analysis in our takeaways most of the sony pvms of bvm prices have increased and are continuing to increase of course the best deals are still going to be through local sales and through networking and okay i'm going to just go ahead and like little do a little shameless promotion of the patreon right here because the last i'd say four or five weeks i've gone in and i've shared tons and tons of posts of pvms bvms ikigamis jvcs nearly all the monitors that were sold on this listing at least ones that were at the better pricing i had first posted on the patreon page and i know a lot of those patreon members were able they told me to get a lot of those l5s this month that were again at a better price than i could get them for myself and turn around in service and sell back to the community it's way cheaper than i can ever find them for myself so if i can't buy them myself i'm sharing them in that patreon page so if you go there you just join for a dollar a month and you can get and see every one of those listings and if something works for you it's near where you live i even show the ones i find globally and not only on ebay any other listing site that i might find so good things also come to those that are persistent and random great deals do happen just about every week on ebay restored monitors do still sell for more when they are available because there was only one really available this time around supplies are still extremely limited on the larger and better monitors and most top-end monitors are still not being shipped at least not the bigger ones that we talked about now be cautious though because there's always the too good to be true rule and scams do still exist but that's all we're going to talk about today i really just want to say thank you so much for joining me if you're still around to this point and you enjoyed this please make sure you hit the like button for me and make sure you're subscribed to the channel if you like to watch these types of videos and lastly i want to say a special thank you to the supporters at patreon because without their support each month i would not be able to spend the insane amount of time it takes to study all these silly numbers for sales and try to help people understand you know what what the value is on these crts i wouldn't be able to go into this much of a deep dive and make these great presentations without their support so thank you very much and guys i will see all of you next time with some more retro content


Building relationships with our nation's allies is an important part of our Navy's success. Petty Officer Rebecca Sunderland tells us how keeping those friendships strong will continue to make our Navy great. Admiral Mark Ferguson visited Naval Air Station Siginella to hear from personnel and discuss the importance of teamwork in pursuit of the Navy's mission objectives. In an all-hands call, Ferguson used his experiences as Commander Allied Joint Force Command and Commander U.S. Naval Forces Europe and Africa to emphasize the need for strong friendships with our nation's allies. We're working ever more closer with our partners in the Black Sea, our allies Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. We operate up north with France and the United Kingdom, Norway. Just recently we had Canada send aircraft over and operate with us. And so the teamwork here is really terrific. The Admiral also thanks Siginella for their contributions to their friendship with their host nation.


Erin you clearly weren't able to accomplish your ultimate goal How do you process not only the season coming to an end, but at the hands of the Astros and for? It's an awful day just an awful awful ending That always stings it hurts No one I'd rather do it with than those guys in there and how much how together they are so you you know Kind of lean on each other in there, but the ending you know as I've said before it's cruel So much goes into it and Trying to climb to that top of the mountain and you know unfortunately we haven't been able to get there yet and Continues to you know I Know it'll continue to motivate everyone in there to to try and get there You know and that's that's what you work for and You know don't take for granted the opportunity you have sitting in front of you and but the ending the ending is terrible You generally address the team when the season comes to a close What did you feel like it was important for you to tell them or for them to hear from you? Just grateful to do it with them You know acknowledge You know You know unfortunately many of us have felt this feeling together that not getting all the way there and having this ending And it never gets easier you know you try to put it in perspective and with You know, obviously, you know families and health and things like that and real tragedies out there You try to have that perspective, but you understand You know keenly what everyone is feeling right now in that room. So You know you try and reflect a little bit on it and You know also hopefully allow it to be another log on the fire that Creates that burn and motivation heading in the offseason that you want to be on that stage you want to be playing for for all of it and You got to keep fighting for it Brendan standing on your right Aaron the first time you went out to check on Nester Was that the groin and how is he now? I Mean he's alright. He's alright He actually did it I Think in this bullpen in his first start against Cleveland It wasn't as significant as when he went on the IL earlier in the year, but And he actually pitched through through it well with that game Then obviously came back on three days rest and was good was good today and then You know, you know, I think he had You know, I don't think he was in pain or anything like that But he just you know, we noticed all of a sudden you know the down tick and velocity and More importantly the command because because there's times when he'll drop in velocity and and that's not a big red flag But obviously walking two guys in a row there You know Unfortunate, you know the bullpen came in was terrific and gave us a gave us a chance there, but Yeah, feel feel bad for for Nester Dan standing sitting seat on your right just to go back to that Aaron You so you guys went out and did he just convince you that he was okay and that he would be able to get through that Yeah, he said he said he's fine So we've you know Kind of talked through I mean we've been dealing with this on different levels for a couple months so kind of Yeah, he said he was fine and then you know You know obviously wasn't quite fine enough Given the result do you kind of look back on that and can maybe wish you had gone with your gut and pull them there? I mean, we're so up against it there like if you've you know going out with a trainer We feel like he's sound No, I'm not gonna just pull him out of the game because he you know isn't perfect So once we felt like he was sound You know obviously, you know the Homer and you know so But you know just automatically pull pull guys in the middle of the second or third inning when You know you feel like their sound John standing on your right obviously sweep doesn't look good at the end How close do you feel that you guys are and do you have any regrets at all about the postseason? You know not close enough, you know, they they beat us You know, I guess you know and we end up second in the American League You know, we got it we got to keep working to get better You know, obviously we had some key contributors Missing that you know, I think would have been Difference makers for us potentially But but then again everyone has to deal with those things on some level So it's you know frustrating Joel standing right Aaron you mentioned that having gone through this with a lot of the same guys now The this end game Do you think that the group is missing something that could help win at this time of year because you essentially are having Very similar postseason's who you're able to beat and who you're not able to beat year after year. I Mean I think we have a lot of the right ingredients in there. I think we I think Look, I think we're a few Really impactful people that weren't able to play in this postseason That would have potentially been a real difference So I don't want to so I do feel like we have a lot of those people in that room You know, we we got thinned out a little bit by injury again. Everyone's got to deal with that But I think there were some significant so every year is a little bit different and what exactly you have Where are you from a health standpoint those things? Very much matter But you're always searching to try and get better and be more complete and be more Excellent in In every scenario against potentially every opponent, so I Mean you're always trying to work to get there and sometimes it lines up better than others Sometimes you're kind of grinding at the finish Andy's standing on your right here And you talked to talk to the end of last season about how important it was for the club to improve and obviously This year was better than last year But is it disheartening at all to end this way and see the gap still between your club in Houston? Yeah, it's awful That's what I said. I mean this is as bad as it gets Again though I I mean and I Because you got it everyone's got to deal with their stuff you like I I think we're a few really significant pieces in there that weren't Weren't healthy players or are hurt that Maybe it's a different little bit of a different story But you you get back on the horse and try and Try and put yourself in the best position to to be successful and and you know the the grind of the season Sometimes puts you in a great position. Sometimes it it makes it more challenging There's attrition that happens throughout the year that you got to deal with So, you know You know at this point in time Right now that you know we got beat by a better team right now and you know that's That's a reality of it and they're clearly setting the mark in this league You know that that we're aspiring to get to a couple last ones Christy in the left center I'll the season began with Aaron judge to talk about his contract Could you just say how you feel about what his season was like and the possibility that you watched his last game and pin Stripes tonight incredible Just just an incredible season and you know someone that I've grown close with and just Admire and respect and You know Hopefully we'll see him in pinstripes for a long time. I don't even want to think about the alternative right now But You know he's he means a lot to a lot of us in that room. We'll finish up with Ron up front Another Aaron question for someone whose Pre-reformance clearly in the postseason wasn't up to what he and you expect Did he put himself from what you saw just the burden of carrying the group? What do you say to him? Oh, I don't know I mean that's I mean it's baseball man. I mean It happens all the time where the greatest of greats go through You know a struggle for and a lot of times that's just the timing of you know it I say it all it's a game of failure and You know, you're gonna have you're gonna have some ups and downs and You know So I Think that's too easy to run to he felt the burden of carrying. I think he was just a little bit off You know, I think his timing was a little bit off And that could be for a number of reasons, you know in the end. It could be it was baseball And thanks a lot appreciate it


They have heard that a certain former president of the United States and 18 others have been indicted under racketeering charges in Georgia. If you're like me, you thought racketeering was just very narcos, very elite stapler, but it's not just the mob or drug rings that can face RICO charges, racketeer-influenced and corrupt organizations. It's any group involved in systematic illegal activities, a.k.a. a criminal enterprise, like trying to retain power after losing an election. Let's say RuPaul and the cast of RuPaul's Drag Race decided to form an illegal Whigs Dealing Ring, and Sasha Colby, Anitra, and Marsha Marsha Marsha repeatedly broke into Whig factories, stole Whigs, and sold them on the black market on behalf of Ru. They would have committed just two or more racketeering acts within a pattern, and thus could be charged under RICO. RuPaul could even be charged as the head of this criminal enterprise, even if she didn't personally swipe a single strand.


Face tag. Boom. I'm a gang and you gotta go take a new ID picture. Yeah, you gotta go take a new prison, California prison ID picture. I got mine on me right now. Shit. Oh, you got the prison ID picture. Keep it on. Yeah, right here. Look, check it out. Real certified stepper. On the gang. Really in the stealer. Oh, you keep it. Yeah, that's my ID. You sure? That's what you're talking about. That's what you're talking about. You took it to the airport. That's what you're showing me at the airport.  Work at the airport. Yeah, we on boss talk, one-on-one, one-on-one. Yeah, we gonna talk. Okay, you was gone for how long? I was gone for nine years. What's changed? What's the biggest change when you came home that you seen? All the girls had different babies. More babies. They all got more babies. They all got more babies. He ain't lying. Yeah, my mentality just to like, when I was, I grew up in there, I learned how to shave in there. I learned everything in there on one prison. But just I came home and just, just the way I act and the way I see people, body language and just, you know, just firm contact and just the way you talk to people and just the way I see and I know how to have conversation with older people, younger people and have more respect and gratitude towards life. But now since I'm getting famous and I'm getting all this money and I'm getting the finer things in life, it's like sometimes I feel like in the beginning, I felt like I didn't deserve it. Like I was like, I was out of place, you know?  And the other day I went back to the hood for the first time and like three weeks, my mom was like, hey, come sleep over here. I took her out to go eat.  On the set. Just on the visit. Yeah, I'm cool, dawg, just like the way I'm doing it. So it's getting some of the people that's in that hood or whatever gonna try to hold you back. No, yeah, yeah, it is what it is, but as long as I'm staying righteous and solid and I keep it real and I'm doing me and everybody's getting theirs, everybody's happy and people want to see me win, but ain't nobody gonna stop me. I'm gonna keep doing what I'm doing. As long as I'm going about it the right way, I'm gonna keep doing what I'm doing.  Like, you know, a lot of people love me. A lot of people love me, 20% hate by everybody tries to find something.  Now I'm real solid. I'm real, real, real, real, real, really out here in the field, really been to level fours, really been to the shoe, really from the hood, really down for the hood. If the homies want to call me to the hood of DP, I'ma go.  And it's just like that.   They'll always, the hood runs deep.  Like they could always, it's always gonna be around forever. I'm from the hood for life. I love my hood and where I'm from. You know what I'm saying? That's my body goes all over my face, but I don't wanna go back to the hood.   What did you think when you came out and seen all these, the podcast, the bloggers, all this stuff going on when it come to the media? I see, I see everybody's making the money out of it and everybody's eating on it. So like everybody has the promotions getting their money, the media's getting their money, the camera guy's getting their money, the video hinders are getting their money, the rapper's getting his money, the manager, the money's in the music and rapping media. Once you get lost into like the LA rap scene, like with the blacks and like the Mexicans, like it's a trip and people get lost into it and it's just like, that's what we do out here. Wow. I gotta go back into the prison like nine years in prison. What was the biggest ride that you was in? What was the craziest thing? Come on now. You know, we're crazy. Yeah, I don't wanna speak too much on that, but yeah, I participated in a couple of them, you know what I'm saying? I did an indicted interview and I spoke on my prison experiences, but yeah, I participated in a couple of them, you know what I'm saying? That's all I gotta say. That's all you have to say about that? Hell yeah. It's just something else. No, no, no, that's cool.  But yeah, I've been in them, guys. On the hood, I've been in them. I earn all my tattoos. All my tattoos, I earn them.  You get like a peanut butter sandwich and I've been there. What's the snacks? Like that's, no, no, that's what they give you. Like when they lock the whole unit down. Peanut butter sandwich. Yeah, you just get a peanut butter sandwich and maybe a drink, that's it. Did they have a lockout down? Hell yeah. What did they feed you? They only locked you down for two weeks now. Okay. Cause I ain't been now, I'm talking to early 90s.  But now the longest you can put your lock down is for two weeks. So it's better. And everybody loves it. Cause you're just in the cell chilling. Nobody wanna go to yard. But they feed you the same food? Yeah, they feed you the same food, they bring you the same food to the cell. Wow, see that's different. Yeah, they bring you the same food to the cell. They treat us bad. Bullshit, that's dog food. On the gang, dog food. Dog food, man, that's dog food. The only thing, and I still eat it to this day, don't think they did it different for us. They gave you like peanut butter and pancakes. Ooh, pancakes. That's all we had. Peanut butter and pancakes? Peanut butter and pancakes, that was best breakfast. Still to this day. They gave you waffles in Pelican Bay with a little sausage right there, waffles, bam. So that's the best, you remember the best meals. You know what I'm saying?   You are mad. They give you a good, healthy piece of chicken. What's up with the, like in, I know in Texas where they give you like thyme, like you can't eat, you can eat, but you get five minutes to eat. Like they knock on that table. Five minutes to eat? Five minutes. Yeah.  Okay, so in Pelican Bay, you eating yourself. Oh, so they don't let y'all go nowhere. You get room service right there. That's crazy. Yeah, they bring you, yeah, at Pelican Bay, they bring you the food to your cell, boom. And they lock it in. It's chow time and the couple come around and he'll just open your cell and push the food in.  And the respectful thing to do is, say I'm eating on the table, I don't know if I'm gonna get some blacks and I'll see what the blacks are in our blacks. You know, cool.  We're gonna wait for the blacks to finish. You know, it's respectful. Like, man, gentlemen. And then once he's done, you guys ready? And then we all leave. Wow. Are they hard on y'all? Like I see the tattoos. I know in prison, you get tattoos in the Texas prison, you would get like a case if they catch you. Hitting each other up or you don't like it. Yeah, you catch a case. Like they, in the more cases you catch the more, you know, it stipulates you. You could be doing more time for it. A case? Yes. It's like a case. No write-up, not with no write-up? Well, that's what we call it. You know, you get a few write-ups. You get a 60 day, you get a 30 days. It's different tattoos, you know what I'm saying.  Face tag. Boom. Again, you gotta go take a new ID picture. Yeah, you gotta go take a new prison, California prison ID picture. I got mine on me right now. Shit. Oh, you got the prison ID picture. Keep it on me. Yeah, yeah, right here. Look, check it out, real certified stepper. On the game. We didn't steal it. Oh, you keep it. Yeah, that's my ID. You sure? That's what you show them in the airport. That's what you show them in the airport. That's what you show them in the airport. They work at the airport. They work at the airport. They work at the airport. This man got his ID. That's crazy. Yeah, they accepted it. And they accepted it just like a regular ID. When they see me walk through with, when they see me walk through with all these chains, they'd be like, all right. Yeah, we're just gonna make a rest there. Yeah. Let's go to TSA. That's crazy. And to clear? No, we didn't let us go to TSA. Okay, okay. Yeah, but they let us go to TSA. Yeah, this is my recent one for a strap. Look at the gate on this one. That's what I heard. Reception. Reception. 518-2021. That's my recent one for a strap. 518-2021. That's crazy, man.  So, okay. So when you, how old was you when you first went? 18. He was 18. Juvenile hard too. Juvenile hard. Juvenile hard. Y8 compound, 715-17. Did you see any at home is when you first get there? My homeboys? Yeah, anybody that you went with, right? I went in there with my homeboy. Oh, they went with you? Yeah, my homeboys went in there with me, yeah. Now I went in there with my homeboy in June on and when I was 18, I got caught there burglary. Then I went back again, went back again. And then been back for violations all year this year. Back in the county violations. Because of what I'm tripping on, like when you go. Once you went in the system, man, it's just. It's crazy. It's hard to break that barrier, man. Just to stay out that, get out that mentality, not hold the gun.


We have started talking about approximation methods in general and perturbation theory in particular. So far we have generated, we have adopted a very easy convention, very easy to understand simple convention with the one that is available in McQuarrie's quantum chemistry book to talk about perturbation theory. And in the last module we said that we are going to talk about more applications and we are going to see how higher order perturbations are going to make results better and so on and so forth. Before we go there, we should at least learn how what the expressions are for higher order perturbation in the first place. And also I had told you very sketchily that the wave functions, perturb wave functions are written as linear sums of the unperturbed wave functions. There is another issue that deserves a little more attention at this time. So what we will do today is that now that we are familiar with the language of quantum chemistry, we are trying, we will try to see whether we understand the way this treatment is there in a little more difficult but definitely much more detailed book by F. L. Piller elementary quantum chemistry. And we will see what happens when we go higher up the ladder and try to do higher order perturbations. This graphic is from the cover of an album Stairway to Heaven. I leave it to you to find out which band had published this album. So we are discussing perturbation theory for non-degenerated states, which means that very quickly in one of the next modules we will also have to talk about degenerate states because the treatment will be a little different. Essentially we will get similar results but degeneracy has to be factored later on. For now we do not worry about that, we consider every state has a unique energy. We do not have any two states with the same energy. For that now what we are doing is we are writing this perturbation to the Hamiltonian a little differently. Earlier the convention we had used is Hamiltonian is equal to 0th order Hamiltonian plus first order plus second order so on and so forth. That gives us many, many terms. Now we will write it in a more compact form. We will just write the Hamiltonian to be unperturbed Hamiltonian plus lambda into V. Well lambda is a perturbation parameter. I mean I could have written just V, which is perturbation and I could have said that whatever is the perturbation first order, second order, third order, everything is there in V. But lambda acts as a dial. A Speeler has said it very nicely, regulator. You have regulators in fan. You want higher fan speed, you just turn the regulator a little bit. So this is like a regulator of perturbation. If you want to go higher up in perturbation, just have to increase the value of lambda. The expressions for wave function and energy are more or less the same. Write wave function as psi k, the kth state wave function is equal to the unperturbed wave function for that state plus a sum of lambda to the power j, jth order corrected correction term for the wave function of kth level. Lambda to the power j psi k jth. That is how we write it. So the coefficient becomes lambda to the power j. So this lambda gives us a module to handle the entire problem using sort of one parameter. That is the good thing about it and we will see how we can get nice systematic results by taking this approach. Expression for energy is very similar to the similar informed the expression of the wave function E k is equal to unperturbed energy for the kth state plus sum over lambda to the power j E k jth. So this is the formulation. Now what we will do is we are going to write Schrodinger equation for the kth state of the perturbed system and we can write it in this form. Well, H psi equal to H psi of course, so I can bring everything to the left hand side, have 0 on the right hand side and then on the left hand side I get this operator H hat minus E k operating on psi k. So we have encountered this operator earlier. What I did not tell you explicitly is that when this happens when an operator operates on a function to produce 0, that means it has made the function vanish or annihilate. So this kind of an operator is called an annihilation operator. Annihilation operators are used in quantum mechanics quite frequently to simplify complex problems. So this is the annihilation operator and we are going to refer to this form of annihilation operator many times in our discussion in this module and maybe the next. So what we do now is that we expand this instead of H hat we write the expression H hat 0th plus lambda V. Instead of E k we write E k 0th plus this sum of perturbation terms instead of psi k we write this expression here. I am going to do that this is what the Hamiltonian becomes 0th order Hamiltonian plus lambda V minus this is the expression for E k 0th order energy for remember the kth state minus the sum of the perturbation terms. So this is the Hamiltonian minus the energy that annihilation operator what is the wave function unperturbed wave function plus the sum of the perturbation terms that of course will be equal to 0. Now you see I have written these some things in blue the unperturbed terms are written in blue because that helps us see something that will happen naturally later on. So I expand this now instead of this summation I want to write well pillar has not written it in so much of detail but I thought I will just write it once so that in case you are scared with some summation signs this might be a little easier. So I will just expand it this lambda to the power 1 first order correction to energy minus lambda square second order correction to energy so on and so forth lambda to the power n minus 1 n minus 1 nth correction to the energy and so on and so forth there is a reason why I have written n minus 1 and you might wonder what happened to this j equal to 0 term the j equal to 0 term is subsumed here you can think it is not really there is no point in writing it separately. Similarly we expand the wave function as well now we are going to make this operator operate on the wave function and what we will do is we will collect the terms in different powers of lambda while doing that let us look at the blue terms what happens when I write h hat 0 minus 0th order energy operating on 0th order wave function what do I get it is shorting a equation right so remember h hat 0th minus e k 0th is actually annihilation operator for the unperturbed 0th order wave function so that term is going to vanish we will get something like this I have not written it so first let me collect all the terms all the coefficient in lambda and while doing that again I will get a summation in the coefficient of lambda lambda to the power 2 lambda to the power 3 so on and so forth I will start writing in the highest order perturbation wave function and go down so lambda is multiplied by what the first thing I write is okay where is lambda in the right hand side I cannot take the second order correction right because lambda square is there the highest order correction that is required is first psi k first is multiplied by lambda and that has to be multiplied has to be operated upon by h hat 0 minus e x hat all right so this is the first term that I get in the coefficient for lambda once again as usual please feel free to stop the video get your pen and paper work this out yourself that is the only way you will understand properly okay do not try to see these modules at a stretch here up to this write it out then restart it will take a little bit of time but then you will understand properly okay but is there anything else in lambda I have taken this okay and I have written this zeroth order Hamiltonian minus zeroth order energy is there anything else that I should write yeah yes we have this zeroth order wave function also right psi k zeroth when that is operated by this say lambda v lambda v operating on psi k zeroth that will also yield a lambda remember lambda is a real number constant so it will go out when the operators operate so lambda v operating on psi k zeroth and there is something else minus ek first order that also is multiplied by lambda lambda to the power 1 that also operates on psi k zeroth so this is what you get the coefficient of lambda is unperturbed Hamiltonian minus unperturbed energy operating on first order correction to wave function plus v minus first order correction to energy operating on zeroth order wave function very nice systematic expression okay and as you see it is going to get more and more systematic as we go ahead okay what is the second one next I want to collect all the coefficients for lambda square so I write lambda square what will I get in lambda square where do I have lambda square here as usual we are going to write the highest order Hamilton highest order correction in wave function first so here I have a lambda square so lambda square goes out this psi k second to get lambda square out of the bracket has to be operated upon by the unperturbed wave function minus the unperturbed energy so exactly same operator as the first term in the coefficient of lambda is observed in the first term of the coefficient of lambda same operator but different wave function the wave function for the coefficient of lambda was first order correction to the wave function psi k first the wave function for the first term in coefficient of lambda is lambda square is second order correction to psi okay what else do I have do I have anything in first order correction to the wave function so here I have lambda psi k first if that is operated upon by again lambda v then lambda square will come out and if it is operated upon by this lambda into e k first then once again lambda square will come out so the second term is v minus e k first operating upon psi x psi k first once again you see the operator is the same in the second term as it was in the second term for the coefficient of lambda what is the third term is there anything else naturally now we have to look for the zeroth order wave function where we get lambda square see psi k zeroth where we like it lambda square when e k second operates on psi k zeroth then I am going to get it there is no other term in the operator that will give me lambda square upon operating on the unperturbed zeroth order wave function so this is what we get and that is the complete expression for the coefficient of lambda square so you see what is emerging as a trend is that the first term has the same operator and it operates on the nth order wave function nth order correction to a function where n is the exponent to which lambda is raised the second term is v minus e x first operating on well here it is psi x zeroth here it is psi x first so well 1 is 2 minus 1 and 0 is 1 minus 1 so again this is exponent minus 1 and then you have this summation so it is not very difficult to understand I hope that when we talk about the coefficient of lambda to the power n then the expression is going to be again the first term will be the same operator h hat zeroth minus e k zeroth operating on this time psi k nth remember this nth means is the same exponent as lambda same exponent as to which the lambda is raised in that term what will the second term be the same operator v minus e k first operating on the next wave function in series next correction term in series v minus e k first operating on psi k n minus 1th what will the third term be now it will be minus e k second psi k n minus 2th and so on and so forth this is the general expression for the coefficient of lambda to the power n so what we will do is we will clean up this projection a little bit we will take this expression and we are going to substitute up here okay well let us not forget the to complete it equate it to 0 and this is what it is okay so we have written this expression okay we have expanded we have got rid of the unpart of Schrodinger equation and we have got this expand this equation left hand of which is written in terms of different powers of lambda lambda to the power 1 lambda to the power 2 so on and so forth lambda to the power n so on and so forth if there is more than n all right now we have encountered this earlier also see remember something we are doing exactly the same thing that we have done earlier it is just that we are expanding the scope that is why the expressions are a little more complicated that is all so now if this is the case then the condition for this lambda to be non-zero is that the coefficient of each power of lambda must individually be equal to 0 so if I take the general coefficient then this whole thing has to be equal to 0 let us equate that to 0 and this is what we get this is a very very important equation and we will have to refer to it time and again in the subsequent discussion. So what have I done I have taken the coefficient of lambda to the power n and we have equated to 0 because lambda is non-zero so every coefficient coefficient of every power of lambda must be equal to 0 by themselves so I have h hat is 0th minus e k 0th operating on psi k nth is equal to minus v operating on psi k n minus 1th plus summation j equal to 0 to n minus 1 e k n minus jth operating on psi k jth okay extremely useful equation it is going to come handy time and again do we have to remember it please do not there is absolutely no need to remember please try to understand okay so now when we have something like this to simplify as we have said earlier the most common technique in quantum mechanics is left multiply by a complex conjugate of an appropriate wave function integrate over the function space and the appropriate wave function in this case is psi k 0th okay we are working with the kth state right so it is natural that we are going to left multiply by complex conjugate of one of the wave functions associated with this state and the best thing to do is to take psi k 0th because that is the unperturbed wave function that is going to simplify the problem as we will say so left multiply by psi k 0th and integrate over all space we are going to write the rest of the discussion in bracket notation I hope we have not forgotten bracket notation I think we have said it several times but since we have we are recording it over sometime I have also forgotten to what extent we have written what we say is this if I write say psi this is called the bra vector psi in bra vector means in essentially psi star this is called kth vector psi in ket vector essentially means psi and we will write psi i and psi j then when we combine if you write this is called bracket bra psi i ket psi j this essentially means integral integral over all space psi i star psi j d tau it is as simple as that okay I think we have said it several times earlier but still just in case somebody is confused okay so we left multiply and integrate over all function space this is what we get psi k 0th remember when I write psi k 0th in bra vector it essentially means it is complex conjugate please do not get confused about that multiplied by h 0th minus e k 0th operating on psi k nth usually we write another vertical draw another vertical line here to just make it look good okay right hand side what I have got I have got minus psi k 0th star v psi k n minus 1th integrated over all space and I have got summation j equal to 0 to n minus 1th see I am multiplying by one quantity right so there is no problem there is a specific quantity psi k 0 no problem in taking it inside and then integrating so I have a sum of integrals each of it which is psi k 0th e k n minus jth psi k jth okay let us see how this helps simplify the situation so do that we realize we understand that this e k n minus jth is a constant it is a value of energy right value of some correction to energy it is a number so I can bring it out okay bring it out outside the integral but not outside the summation sign the sum summing over j here we have n minus j so we cannot bring it outside the summation inside the summation but outside the integral good thing is then the integral becomes psi k 0 0th psi k jth and as we will see that simplifies to a very beautiful expression we will see all right what about the left hand side in the left hand side these two wave functions can change places if we use the turnover rule that we had studied in one of the earlier modules as the property of Hermitian operator remember I did not tell you explicitly at that time that this is called turnover rule but here it is for you know what it is so I can just interchange psi k 0th and psi k nth why because we know that h 0th minus e k 0th will operate on psi k 0th not only that it will make it 0 remember annihilation operator so we use the turnover rule and we get this expression we get integral psi k nth h 0th minus e k 0th operating on psi k 0 integral over all space is equal to minus psi k 0th star v psi k n minus 1 h integrated over all space plus this summation where I have taken the integral out of the sorry I have taken this energy out of the integral sign but definitely not outside the summation now life is getting a little simpler so this is remember annihilation operator operating on the wave function that is going to become 0 so the entire left hand side becomes 0 what about the right hand side in the right hand side I am left with this integral psi k 0th v psi k n minus 1 h and I am left with this summation so we now need to think how this summation pens out right so we need to see whether it is possible to simplify the summation a little more let us see to do that we remember that perturbation theory is valid only for small disturbances and in fact we have said this earlier in some other context so it is without any loss in generality we can consider that integral psi k 0th star psi k is equal to 1 does this make sense integral what I am saying is psi k 0th for the time being I will be lazy and not write the star okay if it is complex we have to write the star let us not worry about it this multiplied by instead of psi k what will I write I will write psi k 0th plus well summation lambda i psi k lambda i to the power so what does it boil down to it boils down to integral of psi k 0th okay I will write star what is there psi k 0th star psi k 0th integrated over all space plus now see I will get summation some lambda will be there lambda to the power whatever integral psi k 0th psi k ith d tau remember this is small yeah remember this is small so we might as well neglect this term and this we said to be approximate to be equal to 1 because the entire normalization constant normalization constant for the entire wave function psi k has to hold so we consider psi k integral psi k 0 psi k to be equal to 1 so what we have also done here explicitly is that we have written integral psi k 0th psi k jth is equal to delta 0j see in all these integrals only when j was equal to 0 then it survived and it was 1 whenever j was anything other than 0 it was 0 so we write this delta function psi k 0th psi k j well psi k 0th star psi k j integrated over all psi k jth integrated over all space turns out to be delta 0j right 1 for j equal to 0 and 0 for j non-zero all other values of j okay so how does that help our cause what are we trying to find out we are trying to evaluate this integral sorry we are trying to evaluate this summation in this summation we have integral psi k 0th psi k jth yeah so what are we saying here we are saying here that that integral turns out to be Kronecker delta delta 0jth okay so that is great because in that case in this summation only one term will survive the term for which j is equal to 0 everything else is vanish going to vanish so for term when j equal to 0 what happens this integral is 1 fine and here we put 0 you get ek nth and everything else vanishes you get ek nth so this integral that we have obtained here integral psi k 0th star v psi k n minus 1th that integral turns out to be the expression for the nth order perturbation to the energy of the kth state okay see so far we had only done first order perturbation now we have got an expression for the nth order perturbation energy correction to energy for nth order perturbation and look at this expression it is remarkably similar to what we had got for the first order perturbation not only that what we got for the first order perturbation is not surprisingly a special case of this nth order perturbation right just put n equal to 1 what will you get this becomes psi k 0th was not that the expression for the first order perturbation term first order correction to energy integral psi k 0th star v psi k 0th yeah so this here gives us the expression very nicely for the nth order perturbation of for the correction to energy because of nth order perturbation well we are almost done with this discussion but we would like to close the module here come back for a shorter module so that you get time to go up go through this and make sure that all of us have understood everything before embarking on the next part of the story.


Runners up who are also going to give a student model or talks and the next one is Zach Flaming who will be talking about a hydrological model for prediction reanalysis and capacity building and each of these entries where we're phenomenal. We're pleased that they're providing Talks with us because the student talks are only 15 minutes We sometimes don't take any questions like we did with Julia so So if you take all 15 minutes no questions if you end a little early, you'll get one or two. So, thank you All right, thank you So I'm going to talk about EF5 which stands for the ensemble framework for flash flood forecasting This is a hydrological modeling framework We developed at the University of Oklahoma and collaboration with the National Severe Storms Laboratory The idea was that we wanted a hydrological model that was suitable for producing flash flood forecasts At high resolution which is for us one kilometer over the entire US and we wanted to be able to produce these forecasts very rapidly So in response to a rainfall that was occurring So we were using a radar based rainfall that occurs every two minutes And so that was kind of the driver for development of this whole system What we did when we were developing this is we actually made it very modular and so we Designed different modules here and so that you can actually plug and play in the code or and in the configuration files to Enable and disable the different modules. So we have modules for precipitation So we can load in precipitation in different formats of things like that and we can convert on the fly between formats We do not reproject on the fly though So it's only a conversion process the same goes for the evapotranspiration We've also added in kind of snowmelt models and so you can see kind of how the flow goes if you add in snowmelt That the precipitation goes to the snowmelt model which then goes to the surface runoff model For the surface runoff models, we have kind of three options We have crest which is basically a Vic based model We have the Sacramento model and then we have what we call hydrophobic Which is basically there's no infiltration into the land surface and everything runs off And then we couple those two couple different routing options the primary one being kinematic wave routing Which is basically just a very simple You know going downhill down slope routing scheme We use that we can then produce a variety of outputs where we can look at things most commonly stream flow We can also do some Recurrence interval work if you have a historical run of the model simulation that you can compare against We're playing around with inundation and so we're trying to do different things there So we can get water depth and water extent and we're also looking at soil moisture We've also coupled this with parameter options optimization with dream if you want to calibrate the hydrologic model Although that's not actually how we tend to do things Just kind of going forward. What does this all look like? Well, this is written in C++ It's about 20,000 lines of code and about a thousand of that is actually with the water balance models There's another about a thousand lines of code That's actually with the routing models and the rest of that is really what I call kind of glue code It's code that's just making it all work making it so that you can read in the configuration files You can have all these different options. You can specify the parameters You can specify the inputs and outputs and things like that I'm kind of the point of showing this here is just showing you that you should really kind of adopt these frameworks because You're getting a lot of code for free when you do that and that your models are actually pretty simple compared to the overall Framework of reading files reading data and doing conversions and things like that So this is the system we built For doing kind of a flash flood forecasting It's called flash which stands for flood locations and simulated hydrographs. You can see on the left here We're using the MRMS which stands for multi radar multi sensor and it's the kind of q3 Which is qpe version 3 the rainfall observations You can see that these are at a scale of one kilometer every two minutes So we're trying to build a hydrologic model that can actually take these Rainfall estimates and then propagate them forward into kind of a stream flow forecast produce forecasting flooding And so to do that we built the storm field distributed hydrologic modeling framework Which is the f5 which is kind of explaining there and then we're kind of taking this further now and we're going And we're saying hey, okay, we've built this what can we do with this? Can we predict actually impacts can we you couple this with something like the agent-based modeling and things like that? We kind of tie this all together to see what will the humans do when we issue a flash flood warning and how will they Interact will they actually not drive through flooded roads if we tell them roads are flooded and things like that And that's kind of where we're trying to get so if you've ever had a wireless emergency alert on your phone for a flash flood Warning at three in the morning, you know how kind of annoying that is and you know how it probably wasn't relevant to you So that's kind of what we're trying to fix right as we're trying to give tools To the National Weather Service that they can actually issue better flash flood warning So they don't have to alert people when they don't need to that the people that they do alert can take it very seriously If you're familiar with the national water model, it's just something that's also come online very recently You're probably wondering kind of what's the difference here And this is just a brief rundown of kind of the differences So the national water model has 2.6 million forecast points. We have about 10.2 million We have multiple different water balance models Which I kind of described the national water model only uses no ampere right now the national water model likes to calibrate and We don't we just look at a kind of a priori parameters We don't do any calibration of the hydrographs in our model We do that all driving the parameters for them estimates of kind of the land surface and soil surface On the biggest difference though is the actually of the cycling of the model and how frequently they're run The flashes run every 10 minutes with a 12 hour forecast compared to the national water model Which is run every hour within 18 hour forecast So you can see that you're getting six runs in an hour with flash And so if you have a flash flood that's about to occur is occurring You can issue a warning much quicker because you'll have the information into the hydrologic model much quicker the other thing we've done with flash as we've looked at doing a Sorry with EFI as we've done a hydrologic reanalysis. So with the MRMS precip We actually have a reanalysis that's been derived from that Discovering the time period from 2001 through 2011 which is the time period there is basically single pole radar So this data set is very homogeneous and so that's kind of why we're looking at it So we re-ran that we put in the five-minute data, which was what was collected at that time We put that all in and then we kept just four values as the output from the hydrologic model We kept the maximum stream flow the time of the maximum stream flow and then the maximum stream flow normalized by the drainage area And then we also kept the minimum soil moisture and the idea was to use these values to then kind of develop Climatologies of where flash flood was happening and to see how they're the model was performing with that So this is just an example of output from kind of the hydrographs from the stream analysis So this is a flash flood in Arkansas that killed 20 people in June of 2010 It occurred at a campground where people were sleeping and the courage kind of overnight You can see the black dots here the observations And then we have kind of the three model runs from the three different water balance models So you can see how they compare we're a little bit early in this gauge But overall like you'd prefer to be earlier than late. So that's okay. We have a different Gauge here that was located nearby and kind of a different basin So you can see we're much better on the timing here and you can see that the models the two Infiltration based models tend to underestimate a little bit and the hydrophobic model overestimates a little bit And this is kind of what you would expect you want to be able to encompass the observations with your models Look at kind of a larger scale validation. This is the correlation coefficient across the US So all these dots are different USGS gauges. You can see how kind of the correlation goes there We're pretty good out in the east We don't deal with snow when we did the reanalysis So we do poorly in the West the radar coverage is also poor in the West And so you have a significant drop-off in correlations there, which is kind of what you'd expect You can also look at this in terms of the same information just in terms of now basin area and also kind of bias So you can see kind of presenting the same information here We're going up to what we consider a flash flood basins which are about a thousand kilometers squared And so you can see that across that range we tend to do pretty good You'll see kind of the low red dots where we again in the mountain West We don't deal with snow and the radar coverage is bad So our rainfall estimates are bad so you can see overall We're pretty happy with the performance of the system that actually seems to be working pretty well Again without any sort of calibration We are making all this data available. We have kind of a website here You can go you can actually browse the data and then you can download the data for individual days It's very useful. We're doing some other analysis here So kind of the bottom left plot with the yellows is the maximum unit discharge of that occurred over this entire time period in the bottom right you have the Minimum soil moisture that was associated with flood events We're looking at in flood events was the soil saturated before the rainfall that caused the flood Or was it kind of a rain falling on dry soil that then was just the rainfall intensity was so great That it overwhelmed and produced a flood can also look at the timing of the flood Which is what you see in the top right as a function of seasonality there, too if you look closely at the plot you can actually see and kind of the spring which is the March April May time frame you can see things like MCS coming off the mountains in Colorado and propagating downstream And you can see that reflected in our model simulations as well So one of the other projects we've been doing with the F5 is actually a capacity building So we've been working with their various agencies Particularly with NASA with their severe program to look at how we can use the F5 in Africa to do kind of flood forecasting there To be able to scale up so you can see the workshops. We've done over the past few years here We've done five of them now Various countries and so it's been kind of a big success and we've been really focused with the F5 I'm making it very usable for the users So we have hopefully nice documentation We've made nice kind of power points that go through the training and to do kind of all those things for you So that people can actually learn how to use it so they can take this and they can use this in their own countries On all these workshops, they're in specific countries and specific places, but they invite Representatives from kind of all the surrounding countries There to learn as well and then they can go and they can take that back to their national governments As well and so it's kind of a nice thing and it's a nice thing for us because we've actually fixed a lot of bugs in the Model as we've been working on different things that people have been trying different things. We're like, that's funny That's not working right and we'll dig in the code I'm like, oh, yes, we made a typo there and so you can kind of fix those things as part of this process So it's good for everyone And this is my last slide just to kind of summarize everything again We have a EF5, an ensemble framework for flash flood forecasting, which is a really nice system We're doing hydrologic modeling now We have a reanalysis that you can go download if you're interested in that and we also have kind of the capacity building We actually have videos that are online on YouTube as well And so you can go check those out if you're interested in kind of learning how to use it and walking through the training EF5 is all open source. The source code is on GitHub So you can go there if you're interested in downloading it and modifying it and contributing That's all I have for today. Thank you. We do have time for questions. So well done