Okay, so like we were saying, let's go over this one. It says predict the products of this reaction by interpreting the flow of electrons as indicated by the curved arrows. So this is the information that the problem gives us. It gives us this structure and it gives us the curly arrows to show us the way that the reaction is proceeding. So this is a mechanism that it's giving you and it just wants you to predict what the products are from what you see the arrows are doing. Okay, so anytime you see an arrow, that's indicating the making or the breaking of a bond, okay? The movement of electrons, okay? So if you're doing anything around here or up here, right? So everybody look over here, over here, right? You're not focusing on the arrows. It's only where the arrows are moving that the molecule is changing, okay? So don't mess with anything else. So what we see here is that this lone pair of electrons here is coming over to make a bond, okay? So instead of having a single bond there, we're going to have a what? Double bond. Double bond, okay? But then we see this pair of electrons here, what's happening to that? They're moving over to here, right? So what's going to happen to this bond here? It's going to be broken. So there's not going to be a bond there anymore, okay? So don't leave that bond there. This is what almost everybody who got this one wrong was leaving that bond there. This is showing you that it's not going to be there anymore. In fact, these two electrons are going to do what? What are they going to do over here? Make a what? Double bond.  They're going to be here. Well, let's just draw this piece of what we see up there, right? So it goes boop, boop, right? Now we have, remember this is a carbon in the middle. If you want to write it, just write it like that, right? What happened to this oxygen and the double bond? Anything? Nothing, right? So we just keep it like that, okay? And this oxygen had a single bond, but now it has a double bond, right? So, and then everybody likes to put their long pair of electrons. That's okay. So let's just keep it with the two lone pair electrons, okay? And if you know about carbon dioxide, you know that there's, of course, two lone pairs there. If that, I know a lot of people wanted to put those lone pairs. It was totally fun. And you should probably want to. Okay, so that's one of the products. And what did we say here? These electrons in this bond are going to go down here and make a double bond here, right? And what's that going to cause this double bond to do? It's not going to be there anymore. It's going to do what? Move over to here, okay? So what are we making in here? What is that structure? A benzene ring, right? Okay, that's a very common thing to make, okay? So oftentimes you want to look for structures that you've seen before, okay? But not only that, what's happening to the water here? The water that's attached to this cyclohexadiene. Yeah, that bond is being broken, right? Water's a good leading group. Remember we talked about that? Those small molecules are good leading groups. So what are we going to show by itself over here? Yeah, H2O, right? Did we add another hydrogen to it? Uh-huh, so it's not H3O. I know we see that plus and we want to say H3O, no. We're getting rid of that plus charge by adding those electrons to it. That's what's happening, okay? So let's just draw what we just interpreted in English, okay? Remember I always say this is like reading hieroglyphics, okay? You can translate it into English, but it's much more easy to just draw a picture, okay? So let's do it. We've got our carbon dioxide. What else do we say? Water's going to be broken off. So it probably is more obvious for you all to write it like that and then you might say, okay, the loan tears there. But I know we all like to say what this is organic chemistry. We want to draw structures. It'd be preferable to draw it like this. But if you draw it either way, I would have been fine with it. And then let's draw this big thing in the middle, okay? What did we do? We just made a benzene ring. And did we mess with anything over here? Nope, so let's just draw it. So look, nothing happened to the double bond up there. So we just leave it, right? We made a double bond there and we moved the double bond from here to here. Ta-da. And we don't mess with anything else. And the last thing, what did we always say, right? If there's an overall formal charge in the one side, then that same overall formal charge has to be on the other side, right? So what do we have? A minus, a minus and a plus. So overall that's negative one, right? So what are we going to have as the formal charge over on the other side? Negative one. Negative one, okay? So if we're not having something like that then... It's wrong. Yeah, it's not going to be correct, okay? Okay. Any questions about this one? Yeah, okay, so just keep this in mind when we're doing this.


Hi, I'm Dr. Karla Witzke with Urology. Some of the benefits that my patients will have from coming to the surgery center will be that they will have faster service, they'll have more efficient service, and their experience overall should be very enjoyable. My name is Dr. James Ware, I'm an orthopedic surgeon and a medical director at the new surgery center here in the Mount Pleasant facility. I'm going to be excited to offer a variety of procedures at the Mount Pleasant Surgery Center here including all outpatient arthroscopic procedures for the shoulder, for the knee, various other outpatient procedures including carpal tunnel surgeries, ganglion surgeries, trigger fingers, and we're very excited that in the near future hopefully we'll be offering the opportunity to do some outpatient total knee replacements as well. The types of procedures that will be available for my patients for urology will be taking care of kidney stones, surgery such as removing fluid around the testicles, hydroceleectomy, spermatosielectomy, circumcision, even circumcision for infants, and procedures for incontinence for women. We also have the opportunity for them to schedule their outpatient follow-ups in physical therapy because we're all located right in the same building, so I think the overall flow and experience will be a much more efficient and enjoyable process for the patient. Post-operatively patients in an outpatient setting, especially a surgery center such as this, will wake up more quickly. They will have their family closer to them. The nurses are able to spend more time patient to patient and they will be able to go home faster than they typically would be from the larger hospital setting. It is a great benefit to have this facility here in Mount Pleasant and especially because I'm already coming here once a week to see patients and so to be able to have my office right above where we're going to be doing surgery makes this seamless. I love that it is kind of bringing in the area of need where we don't have anything currently such as this caliber. To have an emergency room, a surgery center, the facilities to be able to see patients is a huge benefit for patients that live in the surrounding area around Mount Pleasant. The other thing that I find really exciting about the ability to have the center here in Mount Pleasant is that there is an overnight stay available and so those will be for patients who may need to require a 23-hour stay after a larger procedure and the staff here is excellent. We have the cream of the crop, the friendliest nurses, the smartest nurses, they're going to take excellent care of my patients. Our staff, when you walk in, you'll be greeted with a smile and that will carry through with you and your family to make sure surgery is very nerve wracking and we want to make it very peaceful and easy and that is our goal the entire time that you and your family are here.


The Romance of the Ranchos Los Angeles, 1870 Bandits terrorize surrounding ranchos Los Angeles, 1873 Sheriff's posse forms to combat outlaws Los Angeles, 1874 Authorities close in on Tibercio Vasquez The Title Insurance and Trust Company of Los Angeles presents The Romance of the Ranchos An historically accurate dramatization of the colorful events Which make up the background of our Southern California of today Each week our wandering vocero Frank Graham returns to give us a picture of the exciting California of yesterday Title Insurance and Trust Company of Los Angeles presents these stories because the authentic early history of Southern California is directly related to the service the company renders to the community Its work is to examine into and verify the ownership of land to the end that when you buy real estate you know it's yours To be able to do this the company must examine the ownership of the land all the way back to the earliest grants Checking on every transfer of its title and on every recorded instrument and legal proceeding that might affect it By means of its records the company is able to do this work far more quickly than you as an individual could And at vastly less cost to you And by taking extreme care to do the work accurately and completely The company is able to ensure to you the validity of the title you acquire Now here is our wandering vocero Frank Graham to bring us the story Buenos noches señoras y señores Tonight our story is concerned with one of the most notorious of the bad men of early California A man whose name has gone down in the annals of California for the one man war he conducted against the march of progress Here then is an exciting chapter in the romance of the ranchers For several years in the early 1870s the name of Tiburcio Vasquez was synonymous with villainy in Southern California Operating from his hideout of Vasquez rocks in Mint Canyon he conducted a reign of terror over the countryside robbing and looting He was wanted for murder in the north and his special hatred was for Americans Said to have stemmed from an incident in which a gringo stole his sweetheart It was in the spring of 1874 when late one evening a group of men approached the house of an Italian Alessandro Rapetto On ramshaw Rapetto near the present site of Montabello I hope you know what you're doing Tiburcio Not necessary for you to hope Chavez Just those I tell you and all will be well See I suppose so but I don't like it These claws they smell like the sheep Tonight you are a sheep herder and you would better be convinced Or you will answer to me if Tiburcio Vasquez You know what that means I can ramble me if I did not mean anything Of course I will do what you say I just do not like the smell It better learn to like it pretty quick eh See see I feel fine already Good quiet Now near the Acienda nobody say anything just me I do the talking and everybody do as I say See see we are with you Hayfi This senoris is going to be the neatest trick of my career See very neat Alright hombre quiet What is it? Senor Rapetto is it not? See who are you? Oh but the poor sheep are the senor Antonio They call me these are my friends And we go to our sheep at the ranch of Diego Sepulveda Finding such a long way we are unable to make it in one day We should like a place to sleep for the night Perhaps in your barn if it would not trouble you Senor otherwise we should be obliged to sleep on the ground Very well go ahead But mind you don't screw hay all over the barn And be on your way in the morning Oh see see see Hayfi what is this? What are we doing? You had ears didn't you? They are going to spend the night in Senor Rapetto's barn But why?  You get the idea whatever your hands These little pistols have spoken me for And it is so hard to keep under control I would not tempt too much All right hombres inside get the others No no no After you Senor But you can't do this you Senor I am not only kind I am doing You do not seem to realize who I am I don't know Bursio Vasquez can do anything Senor Vasquez No you have heard of me I am getting to be famous Well not half so famous As I will be Senor All California will know me well Senor And you are going to help All right line up against the wall all of you Hey keep them covered But Senor Vasquez I have no money here I can give you nothing What I say is true I never keep money here I have nothing to give you And I would gladly give you all I have But I cannot Senor your generosity overwhelms me But I do not want all you have I want only eight hundred dollars Eight hundred dollars But I tell you I haven't that much here I have nothing a few places But you have money in the Pueblo bank Very well That will do as well in fact I had expected Here is a check you will sign Go ahead Senor How can you get it from the bank Yes Senor you shall see Boy muchacho come here You mean me senor?    Senor Senor Apeto The man wishes me to To get this money for him The man? Oh you have a check Let's see it son Yes Senor Senor Apeto's check for Eight hundred dollars Son this is a mighty big check For a young fellow to be cashing Where did you get it? He just told me to get the money And bring it back This is kind of irregular Is Senor Apeto ill? Come come boy I can't give you all this money Without knowing a little more about this You needn't be so frightened my boy I am not going to hurt you But I must know why Senor Apeto Sent you to get this much money Why he didn't come himself Please Senor Don't ask me Please I must not tell I must not You must not Huh? Sen Call the sheriff Vasquez the boy should be back by now I must stop worrying So he will come He had better come with a little pistol He's getting nervous Senor Stop appointing that thing at me Will you please I don't like it You don't like it Well now it's not too bad So inconsiderate of me Well perhaps you will not have the look at it So long Senor Hey Isidro Isidro has seen someone coming Go to the window look See Well who is it? Caramba it is the boy He is riding up now Well it is good You will know that I'd be happy to wear that Senor Now if he has the money All right you shall not have the worry Please turn that pistol away The boys will come You got what you want Well when I do The pistol goes back All right Jose Bring the boy in And need three cases Now perhaps you will stop Worrying about the orders I give you But I still do not like it We shall get the money and go Quickly See see But there's no worries Now muchacho You are fine boy Come you got the money See Senor Here it is God she is my amigo Let me look first Boom See Go Well what are you looking so frightened for Your master is quite safe now Hey Senor He has been up to something I can tell He is pleased He is troubled The boy is brought to Sierra Worry The orders Come here you boy No Senor No Stop that Leave the boy alone There's no time for that Go Muchacho Good work You are a boy after my own art Hasta la vista Hola Diablo It is time for me Here they come But they will never catch it Oh hey Listen to that crowd He yell for his head Chef We got to produce Vasquez And quick Yeah he's got him scared With his talk of revolution Nah he's getting more Rotatious every day He's got to be stopped And don't forget He's wanted for murder Up north There's a reward of Eight thousand dollars I know all that men What can I do I have to have time But nobody realizes That at half of them people Out there in California That's right Many of them really sympathize With this Vasquez He'll know every word That was said about him Out there in an hour I can't make a move That isn't reported to him It's almost impossible To organize a defense Against him But half the populations Against me But you've got to do something I don't know it Sooner or later His own men Will betray him I can only hope That it's soon I've ordered it People you say I'm getting To be quite a drawer Of crowd I bought coffee They mean business I think they're getting Too hot Perhaps you had better Take to the hills for a while Run from them No, not Vasquez Why should I sneak off As though I were afraid of them I am not afraid of them I would go And I am ready And feel like it And before I go We shall have a great fiesta She is the barn At the mother The canyon of the lorors We shall have a A fandango And dance the whole night Through What Vasquez I have warned you Those are my orders Very well, Hayfi But I do not like it I have a feeling A feeling that you should go Now You are playing with danger Once too often In the files of the title insurance And trust company of Los Angeles Are 1600 large volumes Called lot books These are in effect In index of every deed Mortgage decree Or other important A proceeding Shown by public records To affect any one Of the million And a half Separate parcels Of real estate In Los Angeles County But matters affecting Land ownership Consist of more than These recordings Are relating to Particular properties For example While a deed may convey A lot The legal bankruptcy Of its owner Would be just as effectual In transferring its ownership Many other matters That relate to persons Rather than to Individual pieces Of property Also affect land ownership Among them Are judgments Powers of attorney And sanity commitments Guardianships And probate proceedings Divorce actions And property settlements And so In a different set Of books Called the general index Title insurance In Los Angeles List these personal matters They are indexed By names of people Rather than by Particular properties I will tell you why The general index Is probably the most Interesting part Of the company's title Plant later in the program But now Back to Frank Graham And the rest of our story As the sheriff And his men Continued a vain search For Tibusio Vasquez The bandit was spending his last night Before leaving for Mexico In a wild fiesta At the barn Near the mouth of Laurel Canyon All of the gang were there With their sweethearts Long into the night The merrymaking went on Hey, hey, hey, come on It is getting late It is time to go Ya ve, you all long face The party is just begun Come stop looking so sour And joining the fun Both Vasquez We must leave before dawn And we need rest We have a hard treat We will have a rest When the fiesta is over We will go to the house Of Greek George And there we shall sleep Until dawn But not until the fiesta is over But hey, hey, those are my orders You do not wish to obey them You do not have them Lately you are becoming Less useful to me anyway You frighten too easily But hey, hey, I did not mean anything All right Then stop sniffling Over leaving Come on, join the party Pick yourself a pretty girl Get a bottle Take a lesson for me, amigo Greek George You see how he dances George, where did you learn To dance like that Driving the commas What do you mean, Vasquez? You make joke about my dancing I am a good dancer, no?  I do not know, senior But because you have no eyes In your head So, I like, senior Eat with sharp tongue It makes the game of Saving them much more interesting You think you can tame me, senior? You think I cannot My little dog Ah, I am impressed Where are you, Vasquez?    You don't know me Sooner or later I have a better idea Perhaps I wouldn't have to kill him What are you talking about? Nothing Never mind Senior, where are you going? I'll be right back, senior You mean you really know where Vasquez is? Sure, I told his own men To give him up sooner or later I was right Greek George told us the whole thing You're having a famed angle at oral canyon tonight He'll come down to sleep at Greek George's house We'll get him there Good And that'll last When do we start? You'll start right away I'm not going Huh? Why not? You know why not I'd give my right arm to go Every move I make is watched He'd be warned in no time So you'll take charge of the party There'll be eight of you You're to assemble one by one at the livery stable Guns and ammunition are there ready for you Take a winding route But get to Greek George's by dawn Good night Miss Mitchell, Smith, Rogers, Beers All right men This time we're going to get him Let's go That's Greek George's down there From here on we'll have to go carefully, men Yeah, we're not too early It's getting light What's that? It looks like a wagon coming down the trail Back in the shadows, men We'll stop them All right All right Just a couple of Mexicans and Marantzo down there Let them know But we'll come to the wagon It's just the thing we need What do you mean, Elmo?  Hey, you must hurry Already it is light We should have been gone long ago Yes, yeah, in a minute Where's almost up my breakfast? Fire breakfast I tell you we must hurry I do not like this We should never have come here Why not sell our face? Hey, where is Greek George? Why is he not here? How should I know?   Stop worrying and go fix the horses See, but very happy All right, Jose, ready with the horses We leave in a minute And you set the others on the head See, Chavez Winner Hey, what is that?  I am quite a fixer, you know Oh, why did you do it? Well, nobody seems to understand that Maybe I am hot-blooded No, lose my temper too much But I am a California honor, senor I love my California I see the Americanos come And take what is ours Changes to something that is not ours Well, maybe that is for the best I cannot say, but I cannot like it I cannot stand by and see it Without pulling up a fight I am sorry you have made a mistake, Vazquez If you were to work with the Americanos You could have done much for California See? Perhaps, sir, I cannot say But perhaps if people remember that I love California They will not think so badly of me Maybe not, senor For the sake of your memory I hope not And now? Oh, you must go Oh, but wait Wait, come here, senor Senor, repeto Here is gold watch See, I take it from Americano engineer You find his name on the back Please, senor You give it back to him Maybe he can make it work I cannot And besides, senor Where I will be I do not think I will need a watch, eh? Do not like to hear you say that See, senor, I will give it to you Thank you, senor No No, no, no, senor Not as de la vista Adios You know, senor I think this is one time when Vazquez Will not have his own way And to put your Vazquez was right At last his career of crime was finished He was taken to San Jose Tried for murder and hanged Thus ended a vivid stormy chapter In the story of early California A chapter rich in the romance of the ranchers Frank Graham will have a great story For you next week He'll tell you a little about it in just a moment A few minutes ago I told you how Title insurance and trust company maintains A general index in which you're listed Matters which may affect land ownership But relating to persons Rather than to individual pieces of property In that index at present are the names Of more than a million and a half persons Many of these people do not own any real estate And perhaps never will But in case they ever do Certain things that have happened to them May affect the title to land acquired by them And so the company must keep this massive information Posted in its general index Much of the personal history of people Is reflected in the entries under the names In the index Hence there is a fascination in the tracing Of land titles through the past If the examiner visualizes the human stories Behind the facts For example the life of Pio Pico Last Mexican governor of California Is reflected in 25 entries In the general index since 1850 The earlier ones show him actively conveying And mortgaging valuable lands And giving powers of attorney Later the fading of his fortunes Is seen in an action to restrain A foreclosure of sale of property He had borrowed money on The last posting in 1895 Reveals his death and the probate Of his estate Frank, what's the story for next week? Next week we'll tell you the story Of Rancho San Vicente Santa Monica And the Boca de Santa Monica And of the lifelong fight That a gallant California put up for his land You won't want to miss it And so until then This is your Wondering Barcaro Frank Graham Saying Hasta la vista, señoras y señores The romance of the Ranchos A presentation of the title insurance And trust company of Los Angeles Frank Graham is the Wondering Barcaro Is dramatized by John Dunkel And produced by Ted Bliss With special arrangements by Erwin Yeo Bob Lamon speaking This is the Columbia Broadcasting System


Hello viewers, Ujjala Day here from Bukam 3rd Sam and I am representing Pranavananda women's college. So without wasting much more time, let me start my art work video.


So again today that my talk is, you know, I refer to it as the end of the beginning. It's on central banking Bitcoin and the pricing mechanism Ultimately, you know, really the way that I view the world is you know, where the story of central banking ends is really where where Bitcoin begins And that's that hence the title the end of the beginning You know in the presentation, I'm gonna go over a few items And I think we all recognize that the world changed in March It led to some really unprecedented actions from the Fed and central bankers all over the world I'm going to provide some historical context of this round of QE or this episode of QE relative to 2008 QE and then even before that and then talk about how really, you know You know kind of how the central bankers think about what it is They're doing and they're not really experts and then I'll go into a discussion of the pricing mechanism the impact of central banking Actions on the pricing mechanism and then transitioning that into Bitcoin and how Bitcoin's pricing mechanism So, you know before we get started though I want you know kind of throughout the presentation for everyone to have this this page in context and On the right side of the page I basically laid out that the amount of Bitcoin that have been issued each week since the Fed really turbocharged their quantitative easing Action in this round and you can see that roughly there's about 10 to 10 to 13,000 Bitcoin being created each week until May 20th, which was after the happening and that cut cut in half to about you know Just over 5,000 about 5200 to 5500 and on the right side You can see that the Fed has increased the money supply of dollars from anywhere from 60 billion to 550 billion And then it varies quite significantly, but on average The the Fed has created 20 million dollars for each Bitcoin that's been created and each week The Fed has created 226 billion on average each week for a total of 2.9 trillion in in just 13 weeks, which is pretty crazy when you when you think about So, you know, I refer to this I don't know how many people are top gun fans But I refer to this as the the feds you're going to do what moment and looking at that in perspective to pass QE's so just to frame this episode, you know 2.9 trillion since the beginning of March and You know looking and again, that's over 13 weeks QE in the height of the financial crisis in 2008 was you know over eight weeks they printed one or digitally created 1.3 trillion QE 2 was only 600 billion and then QE 3 which was over 124 weeks was 1.7 billion So what the Fed has done not only in speed, but in magnitude is truly unprecedented But what I want to keep in context too is that You know coronavirus and COVID and global economic shutdown it really is just a scapegoat and or or another way to think about it it is the accelerant and I don't want anybody to leave this the central banks off the hook and You know when I say that it's important to recognize that the feds actions from 2017 to 2019 Actually induced, you know a crisis before the crisis and that the the the economic system was already inherently unstable Going into then what was an accelerant in the the economic shutdown so on the left-hand screen here This is a slide or a chart of the the repo market So the repo markets are a short-term funding market, you know several trillion dollars But you can see that in September of 2019 the rates nearly tripled or quadrupled overnight I really you know that was a signal of those those funding markets Which are which are large and significant actually breaking so had nothing to do with coronavirus and then similarly before the you know People were aware of coronavirus but before the significant economic shutdown There was already a massive oil imbalance and then the Saudis and the Russians can come together on cutting back supply All of that happened before Before the COVID crisis and global economic shutdown so the setup was already there now everyone attributes What the feds actions to just related to this but but it's important to have that context that the system was already inherently Unfragile or in Was fragile and that what we're seeing now from the Fed you know was already set up and it wasn't just about COVID So this is just a slide to kind of articulate this So over the course of 20 the end of 2017 early 2018 the Fed withdrew approximately 33% of all cash in the banking system and that ended in September when the repo markets broke and the Fed had to come in quickly to provide Emergency funding to those so I refer to that as the emerging or the pre-crisis crisis So before COVID everything the Fed had already had to add about 500 billion of cash into the system And then also for context around the oil crisis You know again that that that announcement was one was on March 8 And then subsequent to that the Fed took you know the action on March 12th to add 1.5 trillion to their to their emergency repo funding and on March 15 They you know cut basis the the short-term interest rates by a hundred basis points to 700 billion and then on March 22nd they announced unlimited QE what I refer to as QE plus plus and And one of the things that I highlight is that each time the Fed takes these actions And it shouldn't be missed that these these three actions were extreme and they all happened within a 10-day period And so there's always this view that the experts are in control But they're their their actions are always incremental and it's it's this idea that if the Fed was in control Then when they announced the 5.1.5 trillion dollar repo program Why didn't that fix the problem then subsequently when they did a 700 billion QE program? Why didn't that fix the problem and then subsequently with with unlimited QE was basically all bets are off And so the takeaway I would you know lay out here is when you see these events and looking at the market It's always reacted to the market and they're trying to ultimately stabilize the credit system Now this is this this provides greater context So when you see this on a little bit of a zoomed out view You can see that that that that unwind of the Fed's balance sheet that happened over the course of September or October of 2017 to September of 2019 was initially almost all reversed in the pre-crisis episode but then you know now The Fed has increased Their balance sheet since that moment by 2.9 trillion and so it's like all of that that basically took You know two years to unwind was reversed and so there's a lot of discussion within the Fed about monetizing debt and in what what what they were trying to do was unwind QE 1 2 and 3 Over you know the past two years and and what they found out and what the market communicated to them was that wasn't possible and so when anybody ever tells you that That the Fed isn't monetizing the debt of the United States whether it's public debt or private debt That's a lie And it's a lie because they can never unwind QE because as we'll see QE is only designed or can only work to increase the credit the size of the credit system So but I do think that it's important always to go back and look at the historical context Where if you look at QE 1 you look QE 2 and you look at QE 3 QE 1 was acute it happened over eight weeks It was 1.6 trillion but then QE 2 happened over approximately a year and it was 600 billion and QE 3 of 1.7 trillion happened Over you know approximately a year and a half What's often missed as you see this lead up to the financial crisis where there's this kind of very linear line That that's not as extreme and and because of the scale of the past episodes of QE it's hard to to understand and the consequence of what happened leading up to the crisis and So this is just zooming in on what happened before the crisis. So, you know, you can't necessarily see it from from this screen but Ultimately leading up to the crisis over the prior 30 years approximately 30 to 40 years approximately the Fed had increased The money supply by 700 percent, which is massive, you know Increasing the money supply by seven times even over a 30-year period is significant and Ultimately what we'll find out or my view at least I think I make a convincing case for is that it was this monetary Debasement that actually led to the financial crisis that the credit system could not have expanded To the to the size of manner that it did had it not been for for this and in these activities of constantly increasing the money supply The consequence again on the credit system was from that same period of time to lead to the lead-up to the crisis The credit system in the United States increased from 1.8 trillion to 52.5 trillion You know essentially an increase of 28 times And you know another way to think about that is for every dollar that existed in the system There were 65 dollars of debt and if you were just looking at the banking system each dollar was levered 150 to 1 and so You know one one one way that I put the context around it because I think it's similar to COVID is that you know back in 2008 subprime would you know kind of was blamed for the crisis really? It was just the symptom and it was the accelerant It was the match that lit the fire not the fire itself the fire was the leverage in the banking system So if there's one chart that I use to highlight this it's you know the credit system debt end of 2007 versus the base money supply You know 52.5 trillion to zero to basically 800 billion and in the in the key takeaway for this is that this Chart could not exist if the each time that the market as a whole tried to correct the Fed didn't increase the money supply In the decades leading up to the financial crisis And so that's why I think yeah in my view QE is the problem not the solution This is essentially if I was to simplify QE It's too much debt not enough dollars through QE They add more dollars that can only work if it creates more debt because the Fed is essentially trying to take a situation Where current debt levels cannot be sustained and their solution to that is rather than allow the market to right size And to become healthier and reduce the amount of debt their solution is to add more dollars So those dollars are designed to stabilize the credit system to stabilize asset prices So existing debt levels can be sustained, but ultimately that introduction of new new dollars then leads to credit expansion And that is actually the goal and so you know one you know One way to think about that is that QE is more like heroin rather than an antibiotic the more that's applied to a financial system The more dependent the system become becomes on the need for QE and the worse off when it is removed And that's what we saw in September 2018 That's also what we see with with the COVID crisis is that that a lot of the instability is created from just the high degrees of leverage in the financial system So now when we think about going from the financial crisis to today again The Fed increased the money supplied by 3.6 trillion and that led you directly Contributed to the credit system expanding by 23 trillion from approximately 52 trillion to 75 trillion again That expansion of the credit system would not be possible if the Fed hadn't supplied The amount of dollars that they did to the system And now this ultimately you know leads leads us where we are today and my right side chart got a little screwed up But what you can see is the Fed's increased the money supply just since March by 2.9 trillion They've primarily done that by buying treasuries. They've also issued about 450 billion of Dollar swaps to central banks. They've purchased 470 billion mortgage-backed securities to prop up the housing market and they've issued a hundred and seven billion of direct loans So what we see on the right side, and I apologize that the chart is screwed up but that today we have about seventy five point five trillion of Debt and only four point nine trillion in dollars and that that those amount of dollars in the system have been increased by 2.7 trillion the one the slight difference between the two point nine and in the two point seven trillion are that cash a Significant amount of cash is actually left the banking system And when I think about the banking system It's the dollars that exist in the banking system and within the Treasury network can be used to satisfy debt obligations that exist in the system and that those dollars that leave are Are not available to serve service debt So, you know in one way you can think about it that the Fed by adding dollars delevers the system today There's approximately, you know, $15 of debt to every one doll one actual dollar reserve in the system But but that system is still massively levered and so that's one of the things that when you think about Well, how why aren't we seeing this massive, you know inflation when the feds created 2.9 trillion? It's because the seventy five point five trillion is trying to delever While and while the slide got screwed up a little bit What's expanding massively is the public sector debt and what's trying to contract is the private sector debt And so everyone in the world is trying to shore up their balance sheets and trying to save more and that that ultimately leads to a Contraction the credit system to the Fed through its quantitative easing program and through what Congress is doing They're actually trying to to reverse that natural course Now I think you know when I look at this in summary, you know it the Fed is never introspective or if they are They're not introspective in the in the right way It's always viewed as you know looking to the Fed to come in and create a solution and no one no one ever You know outside of the Ron Paul's of the world But but really no one in the mainstream ever questions the obvious are central banks part of if not central to the problem And in my view, it's that the instability whether it's related to COVID-19 or related to You know the 2008 financial crisis both of those are identical to me It was always about an overlevered financial system and the only way that leverage in the degree of leverage can exist is If the Fed is consistently adding money to the system to be able to allow existing debt levels to be sustained and more debt to be created So now I'm going to transition kind of the You know kind of what's happened both kind of in the lead up to the 2008 financial crisis to what's happening today It's just more of a of a fundamental discussion And and one one thing to note is that idea of why no one why the Fed itself never questions it or why people in the mainstream never question It's really that Central Banking's a monoculture. There's I think about it as there's mainstream economics, and then there's Austrian economics And I'm personally someone that just came around to Austrian economics about five years ago But once you understand it once you see it all makes sense and what these two views basically say is you know Regardless of what is bucketed in mainstream economics? There's an idea that active money active management of the money supply is that by the central bank is good And then the Austrian side, it's no that's bad And so on the left side, it's it's not a matter of if it's let's do it into what extent when on the right side It's don't do it. Whatever you do don't mess with the money supply And that really comes into What is that at play and it is the pricing mechanism? And so I want to I think you know one one piece of Literature that I would certainly recommend everybody read is the use of knowledge in society Hayek particularly writes on the subject, you know in a way that Helped me out significantly in my understanding, but he describes the price system as a mechanism for communicating information Such that the only and the most most essential information is passed on and it's really a kind of you know Kind of telecommunications machinery of really communicated Communicating knowledge outside the world or around the world and one of the things that he that he talks about is how That it really wasn't a deliberate design It was just a it was something that emerged on the market organically people's use of money and monetary mediums and And and and he's described he says the problem You know as it relates to the pricing mechanism and the value that it that it adds is the problem is precisely how to expend the span of Utilization of resources beyond the span of control of anyone mind and therefore how to dispense with a need of conscious control And that's really what money does and that's really the function of money as we'll see and So when I think about price and the pricing mechanism, you know, we all you know, whether it's dollars euros Yeah, and we all think of price and in dollar terms, but realistically there or we think about CPI in general inflation levels But realistically when you think about price There is no price. There's there's only exchange ratios between every, you know, various different goods You know hundreds of millions of people and and billions of goods And so what we're actually learning through price and money is that money gives us the medium to communicate value But as we think about value and recognizing that all value subjective is that what the information that we're really trying to learn Is how much is a house, you know worth relative to a car how much how many you know How long do I have to work and how much of my time has to be invested to be able to buy a car and really those things are Constantly changing so when I think about it on the micro level. It's here You basically have good a and good b and then you have money What should be a relative constant in the case of Bitcoin it will ultimately be a pure constant And so the goal is for the supply of money to be constant such that the demand of money can be variable and the supply and demand of all Other goods is variable, but that by having that constant in the supply of money You can then know the relative price of good a and good b And so if you look on the right side, it's like that that that information that is valuable is looking at You know two goods that are otherwise very comparable seeing an Apple iPhone and a Samsung Galaxy and seeing that one's one point Three times more expensive than the other and then being able to evaluate and do the economic calculus on your side as to which one You want and what the trade-offs are And so when I think again about the pricing mechanism, it's you know, either Everyone is contributing their preferences through it which looking at the at the left side the The the mall outside the capital or outside the Washington Monument Think about all the hundreds of millions of people that have knowledge of how to keep how to build things What they're seeing in the market and then how they react to the pricing mechanism And that and that millions of people are the hundreds of millions if not billions of people that make up an economy They're actually the ones that are communicating price and that actually have the knowledge and what you actually have happened When the central bank does QE is that you have a few people co-op that entire Process and it really destroys the value of money In terms of what it's trying to communicate and that being price And so there's an idea and I'll talk about this at a high level But there's an idea that when you manipulate price, you're essentially, you know, you're not creating more workers You're not creating more products. You're basically just shifting the allocation of Who is pricing risk and who's getting to allocate the monetary capital, you know in the economy? And and one of the consequences of that is that it actually leads to longer term unemployment because the Because and I'll explain this on the next slide, but when you're manipulating price levels You're ultimately causing the supply and demand structures in the economy to shift and those those Those levels of supply and demand can only exist so long as the money remains manipulated But as soon as it starts to either not be increased at the same rate or or or the accommodation is not added Then everyone figures out that it's unsustainable and then the market collapses And this is really kind of to contextualize that idea. This is this is the US market and the housing prices you had You know, basically the housing market You know was a bubble in 2007 prices declined about 17 percent And then what did the Fed do the Fed stepped in and bought 1.8 trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities to prop up housing values So we look at a world where the home ownership rate in the United States the labor participation rate And even mortgages are below where they were in 2007, but if we think about 2007 as a bubble Prices now for you for homes in the United States on average are 20 percent higher And that only happens if the Fed goes and buys mortgages What does that do that draws in labor and skills over the course of the last ten years to train themselves to build more houses? And and and really the long-term consequence of that is when everyone figures out that those prices can't be sustained It's not just that the price of houses come down It's that there's a massive piece of the workforce that was allocated the housing that should have probably been Allocated somewhere else and once the market figures that out those skills can't just immediately Transition to some other equilibrium to produce other goods because their purpose trained for for you building housing instruction And so that's really like you know when I summarize this as if you really think about it in a common-sense world When the Fed creates money, and this is the chart on the bottom It doesn't change the amount of people in the in the labor force. It doesn't create jobs It just increases the money supply and all that does is shift the balance of power of who's setting the You know basically being able to to communicate preferences in the world And so really at the core when you're manipulating the pricing mechanism through QE You're essentially distorting all of the information that's can be communicated through the economy and Ultimately and what we find in the times of COVID and after the financial crisis is we only see in very cute periods after Volatility has been muted for a long time as a function of the Fed that that volatility ultimately ends up coming up and Comes to form in longer term and more acute and more significant on planet I'm gonna go ahead just based on time to Skip this slide, but but really when I think about this, you know There's there's there's the there's the economic debate Which is what leads to a more sound and stable economy a currency that can be manipulated and that the government can play an active role in in facilitating the the ease of you know trying to smooth out business cycles or Is it is it better to take that hands out of the government and realistically take the hand take it out of the hands of everybody? And just let the market function and in my world the way that I think about it is you have a hundred hundreds of millions of people Communicating that information from a pricing mechanism that can't be manipulated You're not going to get into these large business cycles or these large debt cycles that ultimately cause greater Instability in the long run and so when I think about the you know the the four schools of thought You have the Austrian school that says don't eff with the money You have the Kandian school that says government spending smooths out business cycles Then you have the monitor a school that says the money supply management smooths out business cycles kind of less So I'm government bank of debt creation and then you have the MM a MMT school modern monetary theory that really doesn't exist It's just been been made up in the last two years to to be an excuse for government deficit So the positive about Bitcoin is that we now have a market test. There's a lot of economists You know, I don't consider myself an economist But there's a lot of people that views and we'll talk about you know a theoretical or economic intellectual debates But but what we have in Bitcoin is now to competing economic systems and to competing monetary systems And this is a chart of Bitcoin on the right that demonstrates that the consensus is forming around Bitcoin The price of Bitcoin rising is more people looking to Bitcoin and saying this monetary system is better than the legacy monetary system And they're doing that, you know, whether you look at it You see, you know rampant speculation the fundamentals of that chart continuing to go up over time Or because people are assessing the monetary properties of it and then viewing it as a better monetary meeting for them individually And if more and more individuals are doing that then you know the the consensus only continues to accelerate from there So I just have two slides left So when I take this slide, which is the price It's really if I was to simplify it into two simple charts It is the Fed manipulating the money supply And I refer to this chart as fool me once shame on you fool me four times shame on me Because this isn't just a one-time event It will continue to happen and will continue to happen because of the leverage profile in the system and because QE Can only quote work if it's helping to expand the credit system, which is the problem And so did this I just pulled a quote from Paul Tudor Jones in his explanation as to why he began to allocate to Bitcoin He says, you know referring to what's happened in the last three months It has happened globally with such speed that even a market veteran like myself was less speechless We are witnessing the great monetary inflation and an unprecedented expansion of every form of money Unlike anything the developed world has ever seen and that's really the core of it that the size scope and speed Has has really ripped the band-aid off for a lot of people and and it's going to lead more people to Bitcoin And then this is the the the last slide It's the reverse of that point which is the supply of Bitcoin is fixed and when an average individual You know not not necessarily average intelligence just an average individual is posed with a question Which one of these two charts do you want to buy in terms of your money? Do you want a currency with a fixed supply or you do you want a currency that has been manipulated time and time again and Debased time and time again, and so Paul Tudor Jones quote was I also made the case for owning Bitcoin the quintess Quintessence of a scare of scarcity premium It is literally the only tradeable asset in the world that has a known fixed maximum supply bias design the total quantity of Bitcoin Including those not yet mine cannot exceed 21 million These are the two charts that matter and these are the two charts that are people are going to continue to figure out and Come back to and the end result will be you know Ultimately a pricing mechanism that you may look at Bitcoin today. That is that is volatile But really the central banking model trades short-term stability for long-term volatility And and and we see that time and again that is the financial crisis that is COVID-19 It is a function of monetary manipulation and Bitcoin really trades short-term volatility for long-term stability And at the end of the day It's a currency whose supply and driveliness pricing system can't be manipulated and that's compared to systemic and persistent manipulation and that that you know over the long term when you're when you're exposing Bitcoin to these stressors and allowing it to be volatile but keeping the Supply constant that over time there will increasingly be a convergence on that and the output of that will be Long-term stability no massive debt cycles, you know an economy that is that is far more Stable anti-fragile and that's compared to an inherently fragile financial system that exists today


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