This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonis and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That is right here on the FanDuel podcast network and numberfire.com as we're taking a look ahead to week five of the 2019 NFL season letting you know our favorite bets on the board with JJ Zacharyson of numberfire and FanDuel. My name is Jim Sonis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com and joined here as always by Ed Fang of thepowerrank.com. Ed, we are on to week number five in the NFL. How are you doing today? I'm doing great, man. It's that time of year where the air gets a little less humid. It gets a little crisp as we get into October and we start figuring out who the contenders and the pretenders are. So it's an exciting time. We were putting out our Halloween decorations last night which I think is like, I like putting out Christmas decorations because there's a lot more but the Halloween decorations like, they remind me of fall. I get to wear sweaters. I get to wear, you know, like warm socks. I get to eat candy corn. I get to have apple cider and not feel guilty about it. Like it's my time of year. This is my time where I feel good. I feel great. Excellent. Yeah, so do I. I definitely like it when it gets a little cooler. Little more fun to be outside and sweat a little bit. So yeah. Do you still run outside when it's like in the fifties or so? I mean, I run outside when it's in the single digits. So I kind of, it's actually nice in the Midwest in the winter because no one else is outside. You got the whole place to yourself. That is fair. I will, you know, I'll leave that. You want to go out? I know you're up there in Syracuse, New York. You get a little bit of a... I like going out, but I don't like running. I would not run outdoors. I will flop around in a snow pile but I'm not going to go running. So I'll leave that to you and... You're warm. You'll never be cold. That's a valid point. You know, you make good points and I'm saying that your argument is logical but I'm not going to do it. There's a big disconnect there for sure you can find Ed on Twitter at the Powerache. I am at Jimsonus, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. Coming up today, we're in talk with JJ Zacharyson, the editor-in-chief over at Fandall and at Numberfire. You can find him on Twitter at LayRoundQB. We're going to break down week five of the NFL and talk about how JJ changes player outlooks during the season to account for role changes. We're going to talk about three of the biggest gains on this week five slate and get his thoughts on the totals and spreads in those games. We also had our college football preview earlier this week with Eli Hershkovich of You Better, You Bet. Breaking down week six of college football, we gave some breakdowns on Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State versus Ohio State, Auburn, Florida. Eli talked about Illinois versus Minnesota as well. And if you want to find that podcast, just search for covering the spread on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, the Google Play Store, I Heart Radio. Wherever you get your podcast, you can find covering the spread and get Eli's thoughts there while you're there. Make sure you subscribe, rate and review the podcast. All those help us out a ton. We really do appreciate it. Before we bring on JJ though, gotta take a look back at last week and go through our NFL picks here and our guest whalecapper had a pretty solid week. Covering the past. All right, so in the week four preview of covering the spread, he had whalecapper on and he did really well. He won the Browns plus seven in that game against Baltimore and the Browns played really well, won that game outright. He also wanted the under for Patriots Bills at 43 and a half and that game was a super low scoring affair and it wasn't just because Josh Allen left. It was a low scoring game even before that so he got that one there. Also wanted the under for Saints at Cowboys at 47. That game was way under as well. Did have the Chiefs minus six and a half and that game was tight the whole way. The Chiefs did come back to win but the Lions did cover but overall a really nice week there for whalecapper going three and one there. Ed, you and I didn't do as hot. I had the Texas. Well, I'm just saying, we didn't even have to sweat three of those games, right? No, there was no, I think the Browns plus seven they won by like 12 so covered there by like 19. Patriots Bills went under by almost 20 points and Cowboys Saints went under by 25 points. Yeah, that was, there wasn't much going on in that game. Yeah, so find whalecapper on Twitter at whale underscore capper because he deserves your follow. I was bad because I wanted the over on the Texans Panthers. That game went way under. Kyle Allen fumbled like 17 times. Deshaun Watson didn't have his best game. That was a bad pick on my part. Ed talked about the Vikings plus two and a half against the Bears and the Bears won that one. Mitch Trabisky got hurt. It was a very strange game. There were fumbles in that game too. It was a weird week. And I think that was one of the weirder games on there. Now, Stefan Diggs is MIA. Yeah, I mean, the line movement was great because I think we talked about it, Minnesota plus three or plus two and a half. It ended up being a pick by game times. Trabisky goes down. What's his name? Chase Daniel comes in and it was pretty good. I don't know how long that's gonna last. But I wanted to say that we got to start reevaluating this Minnesota team as like a sleeper Super Bowl team because that's not looking so hot right now. It's definitely something I talked about in the preseason. I thought a guy named Kirk Cousins could get his act together and be the, what, $175 million guy that he was signed as. So far hasn't gotten it done. And the defense doesn't really look great either by some of my success rate numbers too. So I'm in the process of reevaluating what I thought about that team. Well, one thing we talked about with Minnesota was that we didn't think they would go as extreme as this when it comes to running the football because they had Kirk Cousins, they had Adam Thielen, they had Stefan Diggs. When you have personnel like that, you're probably not gonna go as extreme as they have gone. But for whatever reason, they have taken it as far as you possibly can. And we've seen Kirk Cousins be not a great quarterback but he's been a very competent quarterback in years past. And suddenly, despite having good personnel around him, that's not there. So I think like the thought process behind liking the Vikings, a large part of it was the Vikings were 30 to one to win Super Bowl. That was a very good number, I thought. I think that the thought process behind it was still not bad. It's just that they went to the polar, they went as far as they could in the negative direction, I think. Right. Well, I mean, they are running the ball well. Right. There is that but yeah, I mean, I agree. I think the thought process was right. I think a lot of people kind of agreed with that but it's time to reevaluate. It's October. Absolutely. And that's the only way we can do. We've got data, we can change our minds. We should change our minds. Once we get more data and get better information, we should change our minds and it's looking like it's that time for Minnesota. We're gonna bring JJ in in just one second. But first, if you wanna get in on the action, check out the FanDuel Sportsbook and place your first bet today. If you lose, FanDuel will give you a refund up to $500 in site credit. Visit Sportsbook.FanDuel.com for more details, terms and conditions apply. Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Let's bring on JJ Zacharista now to preview week number five of NFL. Once again, follow him on Twitter at LayRoundQB. Covering the present. Let's bring on JJ Zacharista now to preview week five across the NFL. JJ, welcome back to Covering the Spread. How are you doing today? I'm good, man. I'm good. I'm ready for week five to get going. And it's already week five, which feels like insanely weird to me. Like we're already into October. It feels like we were doing pre-season podcasts talking about player projections that you like five minutes ago. So like I have no idea where the season has gone so far. Yeah, it's nuts, nuts. Yes, let's break down week five here with JJ. And JJ, when we had you on back in July, actually for our first show, we were talking about player projections, talking about player props and stuff like that. And now that we actually have some data, we've got thoughts on what guys' roles may be. But those roles also change from one week to the next like David Montgomery in week one. Didn't have a big role, but that has steadily increased as the year has gone along. And obviously those role changes are gonna play a pretty major role in prop betting. So how do you account for role changes when you're trying to project what a player will do in the coming week? Yeah, so I think that there's probably three main buckets to sort of look at here. The first one is sort of the news that beat writers are saying. I know that you sort of have to sift through that and see what matters and what doesn't matter. And that's not always an easy thing to do, but I still think that that information is helpful in some way. You can look at peripheral numbers as well. You know, peripheral numbers, meaning numbers that aren't really being shown on their end of game stat line. But if you're looking at things like snap rate and if you see that increasing but the numbers don't match with their end of game stat line, then you know that better numbers are coming. But even still, you know, a good example of this, even if a player isn't seeing that many snaps, a good example of this is his usage when he is on the field. You can look at that two ways. You can look at it as that player is going to regress and he's not gonna see such high usage on the minimal snaps that he played. Or you could see it as they wanna give this guy the ball. He's only played 25% of the team snaps, but maybe if he sees more snaps, then all of a sudden he's gonna see the ball more. Or, you know, they're giving him the ball for a reason, if you will. So I think those are two things. Then you could just look at general talent and how well these guys are playing. I mean, there's a lot of statistics out there. And even if you're just watching film, you can see that Ronald Jones looks really good in the Tampa Bay backfield. And I think that we can confidently say that Ronald Jones at least deserves to see more work in that backfield. Now we're also working with the assumption of rational coaching, which isn't always the case. But, you know, at the same time, more often than not, coaches are rational. And as a result of that, you know, you can utilize that for player prop purposes. So how do you weigh those two things? Because let's stick with the Ronald Jones one as an example here. Because we've seen Jones perform pretty well, I think, the entire year. And they've kind of had this hot hand approach. Bruce Arian still says that he wants to mix Peyton Barber in there. So how much do you weigh player evaluation in what you think should happen versus what coaches are saying and things like that?  So I think that that, you know, it's risky. It's risky here. I think that, you know, overall, if you just look at, you know, if you combine those two things and if you look at Ronald Jones's increasing Snapshare, for instance, and you see it getting better and better each week, David Montgomery, another good example where week one is Snapshare didn't look great. His running back usage out of that back field from a production share standpoint didn't look great. But then you see that increasing week over week over week, you can feel more confident that that sort of trend is gonna continue into the coming week. So I think it's just kind of combining all of those things. Excellent. So JJ, a lot of your work centers around regression when we had you on in the pre-season, you did a lot of, told us about a lot of nice things with regression in the mean in terms of touchdown rate and other things that are gonna regress pretty hard from season to season. How can we apply that to the current season? You know, we've only had four weeks of the season. Regression is gonna hit pretty hard. Who are you trying to monitor the next couple of weeks? Yeah, so the way that an easy way to look at touchdown regression actually, in particular, and obviously that can play into player props as well, but an easy way to look at touchdown regression is to see how many yards a player has versus how many touchdowns he scored and see how frequently players score based on those yardage totals over the last half decade, decade, however long back you wanna go. And the main reason you can do that is because the two correlate pretty strongly together. You know, obviously a player who's seeing more yards is likely to score more touchdowns. And if there's, you know, if you're looking at that and you see a player with a really high yardage total like Leonard Fournette, who hasn't found the end zone yet, you can spot regression and say this guy has positive regression heading his way. I mean, if you look at Fournette in particular, based on his yardage total, and this is both receiving and rushing, he should have about three and a half touchdowns this year, but he hasn't scored at all. And obviously this is all situation dependent. You know, someone like Todd Gurley of last year, for instance, is always gonna outperform in this particular metric in the way that we're doing things here, but it at least gives you a high level view as to how players should be performing versus how they are performing in the touchdown column. And we know that touchdowns are a little bit fickle and it's a way to sort of play that market and see where things are at from a prop that standpoint, because we know that, you know, Leonard Fournette, seeing this usage that he's seeing, which is really only being seen by like Christian McCaffrey to start the year and Levy on Bell, eventually he's gonna find the end zone regardless of the offense that he's in. So you can utilize that to your advantage and realize that regression is going to hit as long as he continues that production. Yeah, the thing with Leonard Fournette too that's helpful is that they don't have anyone else to put in to like take away a goal line carry, which I think can make you even more confident about those yardage numbers too. Yeah, and the other thing too that I think is really important and often overlooked is a team level regression. You know, a lot of people just look at the individual Leonard Fournette and say he should have more touchdowns, sure, but I like looking at the way teams are scoring touchdowns and by that, I mean what's their pass to rush touchdown ratio? So if you look at three teams this year, the Falcons, the Jags and the Lions, all three of those teams have eight or more passing touchdowns and one or fewer rushing touchdowns. So not only does that mean that we're probably gonna see some sort of regression hit where that evens out a little bit more, but then you can kind of carry that over to what happens with the quarterbacks and what happens with the running backs on those team and then utilize that information for player props. Interesting, so that'll be applicable for the Lions next week potentially when carry on Johnson comes off a buy. So interesting guys to monitor there for sure from a prop betting perspective, but let's dive in to three pretty big games. On tab for week number five, starting off down in the Superdome where the Buccaneers are squaring off with the Saints. A lot more interesting than this game appeared like it would be. A couple weeks ago when Drew Brees went down, the Saints are three point favorites here. The total is 46 and a half and the Bucs got a huge win last week on the road against the Rams. Do you view this Buccaneers team as being legit JJ? They've been kind of close in every game so far or will that game look like an outlier against the Rams by season's end? Yeah, it's really interesting. I think that entering the season, we could have looked at this Buccaneers roster from a personnel standpoint and say that they were a bottom 10 roster in the league. But I think that we're seeing what the impact of coaching can have in the league, especially on the defensive side. Todd Boles is really doing good work with that defense. But it's sort of hard to get a read on them because losing to the Giants at home makes me think that they're kind of not for real. So yeah, I mean, they're kind of in this weird limbo stage where they're probably the toughest team to read. But at the same time, I do think that we can feel a little bit confident about Tampa Bay just given the coaching staff and the changes there and how that has looked so far. The other thing too is we're always going to have games during the year where we look back and we're like, what on earth happened? Why was that game? Like, how is this game such an anomaly? And I think like that Rams game, there was a lot of weird stuff that went down. There were a lot of weird turnovers or a couple of defensive touchdowns. And I think it's hard to put a lot of stock in what we saw there. And you can say it's anything about the Saints in the first game with Teddy Bridgewater where they had a couple of defensive or special teams touchdowns against Seattle, but then had an interesting game plan again against Dallas. So any thoughts on this game, JJ, whether it be the total, the spread or just the Saints in general? I think the total is a little bit too high. You know, we saw New Orleans play it pretty conservatively really both weeks. The main reason why you might not think the way that they played it conservatively two weeks ago against Seattle was that the defense played well. And the rest of the unit played well. They were able to play from ahead. And that's not likely to happen week in and week out the way they started that game. Teddy Bridgewater throwing a deep on only 6.9% of his passes. That's by far the lowest in the NFL to start the season. I just don't love that. And on top of that, you have a game in New Orleans where they play better defensively. And as a result, you know, you have the defense that'll play better, lower scoring contest in general. So I could easily see this going under. I know that there's been some line movement focusing on the under there and I think it makes sense. Excellent. So we have another big game with Green Bay going to Dallas. Dallas is a three and a half point favorite. Green Bay couldn't get it done on Thursday night, but actually the offense probably had their best game of the year. This total is sitting at 47 and the Cowboys struggled last week. What do you see in this game and your analysis on both of these teams? Yeah, so if you look at the Cowboys in particular, what we saw last week was that they're reverting back to more of this early down run heavy offense, which is not what we want to see. We want more points. We want them to air it out. That's when we see more offensive points for these teams. And Cowboys stats on Twitter, he said that they tweeted that they have a 39% success rate when handing it to Zeke on first down this year. It's a 53% success rate when Dak is throwing it. So I do have some concern over the play calling as a result.  They've played a lot of games at home this year and they've faced Chicago. Really the only game, the only contest where they didn't look that great was last week when they finally played a pretty competent offense in Philadelphia. So overall, I think that just given the fact that the Cowboys are running the offense the way that they're running it, there's some ambiguity as to how this Green Bay Packers defense might look. But one of the things with this Packers defense is that they've been really bad against the run, and that might force the Cowboys or make the Cowboys want to run the ball a little bit more in this contest. And if that's the case, it would speed up the game, not from a play calling standpoint, but literally a time standpoint. And that could cause lower scoring in this contest. So the under might end up hitting, especially without Devonte Adams. Yeah, we've seen some live movement here too. It was 47, it's now 46 and a half. So backing up your point there, JJ. And you mentioned Devonte Adams, probably going to miss this game. Tyron Smith also out for the Cowboys. So impactful offensive injuries on both sides. I think, again, goes towards the under here. Do you think the Packers can cover this spread? Or is it more about the under for you here? I think it's more about the under. I might take the Cowboys, just because of what I mentioned about the Packers defense and the fact that, sure, this game might end up being slower paced because they can run the football on Green Bay. And that's not necessarily a great thing. It might keep the game closer. But at the same time, Green Bay has had really advantageous matchups defensively with their road game being in Chicago. And anytime you get a defense at home, they're gonna play better. So that's really my fear with Green Bay here. And then on top of that, you have no Devonte Adams more than likely. So that just makes it easier to side with the Cowboys if you're gonna side one way or the other. All right, let's move on here to the Colts at the Chiefs. The spread in this one is a Chiefs minus 11. Total here has come down. It was 57, is now 56. And as of this recording, JJ, we don't know TY Hilton's status for this game. I believe he sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. How much does TY Hilton's availability influence your view of this Colts team here against Kansas City? I mean, I would like the Colts offense more if TY Hilton were active, but I also think it's easy to overstate what TY Hilton would end up doing to this line in this total. I just am not feeling the Colts offense, at least from the perspective of how they've performed and how they should be performing. Jacoby Brissette so far this season has a 7.4% touchdown rate, which is third highest in the league behind only Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson. That's a really high touchdown rate for a backup quarterback who, I get it, not a typical backup quarterback. He's better than average, but I don't know if he's a better than average starter in the league. I don't think we can confidently say that. And that's a far too high touchdown rate for a player of that caliber. And then on top of that, the Colts are scoring a touchdown at the highest rate or the fifth highest rate in the league per drive. So that's another reason that we could look at this team and this offense and say they're bound to regress. Well, that happened this week, maybe not because the Chiefs defense is that bad and that they have that many holes, but the fact that it's in Kansas City, that's why I think that it could hit this week. So I'm not really that optimistic about this Colts offense, even though they're going into Kansas City and playing a pretty mediocre Chiefs D. Excellent. What about the Chiefs against the Colts defense? I mean, they should be able to do what they want for the most part because they can do that against any defense. But the Colts defense usually schemes pretty well. And we saw some of that at least, at least some of it parts of the game in the playoffs last season. So I'm not, you know, I think overall, I'm not looking at this game and feeling confident that the over is gonna hit. I'm more confident in the under more than likely. But I think that, you know, overall, a lot of that has to do with me believing that the Colts offense isn't gonna be able to move the ball as well as they have so far this year. And then as a result of that, the Chiefs might just end up being a little bit more conservative. Is the pessimism around the Colts offense enough to get you to bet the spread of KC minus 11? Or is that number appropriate in your eyes? I think it's pretty appropriate.  It's tough, especially with a team in the Colts. It's not, that's well-coached and it's not, you know, the personnel is not bad. So it's hard to bet a number like that. I think the number that you wanna bet here is the total and just go the under. All right, any other spreads or totals you see on the board that you like here for week number five over at Fandals Sportsbook? Yeah, I'm really intrigued by the Cardinals-Bangles game. It could go in a lot of different directions just because we know the offensive lines for both of those teams are very, very bad. So it wouldn't shock me at all if we see like a 13 to 10 game after everyone's super excited about what could happen in fantasy and this hitting the over. But I still think the over is still a decent bet mostly because these two teams have run at a really fast pace to start the year. Arizona's first in the league in seconds per play. Cincinnati ranked seventh. They're both in top 10 situation neutral pace. So a higher pace means more plays. More plays means more points. And then that would hopefully result in the over being hit. Yeah. And I think that's kind of the way you wanna view it. You wanna go for fast-paced games where the clock will stop often given Kyler Murray's success recently. The clock will stop pretty often there and given Andy Dalton's lack of success, same thing. So I think that the thought process definitely there for sure. That is JJ Zacharyson again. He is the editor-in-chief at both Fandall and at Number Fire. You can follow him on Twitter at late round QB. JJ, thank you for stopping by once again. Talking a little regression, talking a little week five. We appreciate it. Good luck in week five and we'll talk to you again soon. Thanks guys. Appreciate it. Covering the future. One final big thank you to JJ Zacharyson for swinging by and breaking down week number five of the NFL. And we talk a lot about spreads and totals here on the show. We don't talk as much about player props. And most of that is because player props are not always posted by the time we record on Thursdays. It's kind of hard to give a lot of analysis there. But it's a really fun market. And I love player props from a betting perspective. It's just hard to do from an analysis perspective, but from an actual like betting perspective, I think there's a lot of edge there, but they're also just really fun to follow. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think a lot of professional seasoned betters will tell you if you're trying to get started, start with some player props. And I think we're seeing those more and that's probably some pretty good advice. And it's also a huge overlap between my research for daily fantasy and player props. So it makes sense. Like from a strength perspective, I should skew towards player props and glad to get JJ's thoughts on role changes there. Ad and I always preach searching for the best value and betting on games. Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at numberfire.com. Oddsfire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated U.S. market. Compare odds, quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place. Never settle, always get the best odds. Check out the experience for free now on numberfire or at oddsfire.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Let's dive in now to covering the future, starting off with you, Ed, and you're looking at that Monday night football game between the 49ers and the Browns. And the Browns looked really good last week, but you wanna focus on the 49ers and some really interesting numbers you've seen from them through the first couple of weeks. Yeah, I think San Francisco is really interesting. I mean, we came into them this pre-season and I thought they were kind of getting overlooked. That actually doesn't turn out to be the case. I was looking at their win total both last year and this year with a healthy Jimmy Grappolo each time. Last year there at eight and a half wins, shading the under. This year there at eight, shading the over. It pretty much the same price. And so the market was essentially saying that this is a pretty average NFL football team. But they've been really good. I'm looking at success rate, which I define as half the necessary yards on first down, 70% of the necessary yards on second down and all on third and fourth down. I adjust this for strength schedule with the algorithms that I have. And on offense, they've been really good. They've been fourth with pretty even balance, fifth passing the ball and second running the ball. It's been interesting, when you look at the PFF grades, a bunch of the top players on offense are they're running backs, which suggests that it's not necessarily the line. It's the play of some of the running backs. So they've been really good on that side of the ball. And also on defense, overall their adjusted success rate is third and they're really excelling in pass defense. Their first in adjusted success rate, not so good in running the ball at 27th, suggest some problems with the interior of the line. But the pass defense has been really good. You know, led by Richard Sherman back there. Some of a kilo of witherspoon has actually gotten some really great grades. He's actually hurt right now, which is probably gonna hurt them over the next couple of weeks. So San Francisco 49ers, I mean, I don't expect them to be fourth and third on offense and defense by the end of the season, necessarily you're gonna expect some regression, maybe some injuries, but this is certainly a team I'm looking for to find some value over the next couple of weeks, especially on the side. My numbers, which include all these success rate numbers make them about a 3.3 point favorite. So suggest that the line at three and a half is pretty fair this week.  So maybe a little bit of a lean towards San Francisco, but heading into the future, these Niners are a team I'm looking to back. And I think it's important to know when early season success is legit because the 49ers have won a lot of games. You know, they did really well heading to their bye week. And sometimes we may be looking at them as a spot for regression, but I think it's helpful to know that your numbers say no, this is pretty legit. I think that with Kyle Shanahan, it's not surprising because he is a great schemer. And we talk about how rushing is less efficient a lot of the time, but with Shanahan I think that's less so just because he doesn't do inefficient rushes. If you look back at last year, I think it was three of the top five teams as far as not running up the gut because running up the gut from a success rate perspective or sorry, from an expected points perspective is more inefficient than outside runs. The 49ers I believe had the lowest run up the middle percentage and other teams that were near the top were Washington and Atlanta, both places Kyle Shanahan has coached very recently. So I think that he kind of leads an imprint where he is, you know, he does run, he does skew towards run a bit and the 49ers offense so far this year has been a little bit more run heavy, but they run in a smart way.  Like last year with the Cardinals, David Johnson up the gut never worked but the 49ers don't do that. They run in a smart way and I think that does matter too. Yeah, and I think it's important to like not run into eight man boxes, right? I mean, that's what we always talk about pass rate on first down when, you know the typical NFL defense is gonna put a lot of guys down in the box to stop the run. So yeah, that just all the more reason to think about backing the team in the coming weeks. I couldn't do it this week cause I can't bet against my guy Baker, but going forward. He's your guy? Yeah. You believe in Baker? I have a lot, oh yeah. Okay, so I do a lot of research into the stickiness of college metrics for quarterbacks and how well that projects to the next level. And Baker was like, he checked every box because he had gobs of collegiate experience which is something that has been good for quarterbacks as they transitioned to the NFL. He was hyper efficient in college. And when you combine those two things, quarterbacks don't fail very often. That's kind of why I've been so disgruntled with Marcus Mariota's lack of success in the NFL's because he also checked both those boxes. Hasn't done a whole lot. It's why I'm hyper defensive of Jared Goff because he wasn't the best college prospect but people ragged on him. I thought unnecessarily for a lot of reasons. So Baker's kind of been like the major success story. Pat McHomes actually checked a lot more boxes than people may have thought as well cause he was actually pretty efficient in college too and played a good amount. So I believe in Baker a lot. And that's why I want Freddie Kitchens to keep doing what he did last week and stopping a dingus like he was back in week three. Well, yeah. And I think we all saw especially the Rams game where when he got the ball out quickly, he got it there accurately. They were breaking off some big plays. When he goes to his first, second read and just kind of pulls it down and starts bumbling around the pocket, that is not a good thing. And you're essentially seeing the exact same behavior from Shay Patterson of Michigan. And a lot of people in Ann Arbor are down on Patterson and I'm trying to tell people like, look, this is like Baker Mayfield, right? Like it's the same and I wouldn't necessarily have given up on Baker Mayfield. So let's not quite give up. Let's have a little bit of confidence. Well, I mean, we'll see where it goes. Right. The other thing too is the Brown's coaching staff adjusted after week three. They realized that they were putting Baker in bad spots. Baker was not helping. He was very much a big part of the problem as well. But they adjusted. They changed the personnel. Warren Sharper's noting that on Twitter, how they were running more two tight end sets than they were the previous week where they were mostly in three receivers that week before that, they changed up their personnel. They lowered Baker's time to throw about like a half second on average from his full season number. They made adjustments. And if Michigan can make adjustments to help Shay Patterson, I think that we could see a continuation what we saw against Rutgers. Like it's not going to be that Rutgers game, but it can get better. No, I mean, that's exactly what they did. I mean, they really simplified the game for Shay against Rutgers. Some rollouts, some quicker decisions, just simplified everything. And I think, you know, it's been interesting because a lot of the talk around here and on my radio show this morning was like, well, they just can't do this for the rest of the season. And part of my argument was like, well, Mike Leach has been making his offense simple, like forever, right? And I think sometimes we don't put enough emphasis on the execution aspect of football. And especially when you're Michigan and you just have three NFL caliber wide receivers, like why not make it simple? Just beat the guy, you know? Right, put the ball in their hands and let their talent shine. Yeah, exactly. And you know, it's gonna get tough for Iowa. But yeah, we'll see. I mean, it'll be interesting to see what Baker Mayfield does on this morning night game. So looking forward to it.  And he is currently a concussion protocol. So having or losing him might be a big loss, especially for Shart Higgins can't go. But broadly, I believe in Baker. I'll have to move on to my cover in the future. You're actually talking about a game we discussed with JJ and I also want to back up what JJ was saying and I want the under for the Colts and the Chiefs. This game opened at 57 and it has already gone down to 56, despite 78% of the money being on the over. So we could see this total back up and I don't think it'll go down too much more. So you might be able to hold off here and see if you can get a better number on Sunday, but I like the under regardless. I think it's probably like three ish points too high because think about this anecdotally. If you are the Colts, what do you want to do? You want to run the ball this week as much as possible because you want to lower this sample when you're an 11 point dog and you want to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. And the Colts have seemed pretty obliged to do that and they've been pretty good as a rushing offense so far this year. They rank second in schedule adjusted rushing offense based on number fires metrics. The Chiefs are 24th against the rush and they want you to run the ball on them because it prevents you from passing. And Ed, this is something you've discussed before and I'll talk to you about this after we're done here but it's a smart strategy as you've discussed. You want teams to run against you because it means they are not throwing. But the Colts, in their two road games this year when they weren't on turf, which is a big difference for this team, they were super run heavy. They threw 57% of the time on first and second down in the first halves of games the first two weeks. They ranked 19th in pass rate in those situations. So a lot more run heavy than they were last year with Andrew Luck. While the Mac did mispractice on Wednesday and T.Y. Hilton didn't practice, Paris Campbell didn't practice. And if Mac can't play, then they may skew more towards the pass but his injury on Sunday didn't seem too serious and Hilton, I don't know if he's gonna play but Hilton was healthy in weeks one and two and they still skewed toward the run. So I think that's why they're just gonna be run heavy when they're not indoors this year. It sounds like they believe in their offensive line. They believe in Marlon Mac and they might not believe as much in Jacobi percent in this passing offense when they're outdoors. The Chiefs defense also does play better when they're at home because Arrowhead is a very hostile environment as Lamar Jackson showed a couple weeks ago. So I think the under is very much the play here. I'm not sure if the Chiefs will cover because I think again this game should be a lower story which makes it harder to cover an 11 point spread but I think that under on 56 makes a lot of sense just because if you're thinking about this like Frank Reich, you wanna lower that sample, you wanna increase the variance and the way you do that is by keeping the clock going and running the football. So I think that's the way I would skew here Ed but I wanna talk to you because I've seen you talk about this before where teams may incentivize their opponents to run because they know it's less efficient and I find that mindset genius first of all but it's also super interesting. So what did you find when you were looking back at this? Well, I mean we know that throwing the ball is more efficient than running the ball in general and you find these interesting cases where Bill Belichick talked to his New York Giants defense when he was the coordinator there for the Super Bowl, thinking 92 and he basically told him to let Thurman Thomas rush for 100 yards which when I first read that I was like what, what, what, what and but when you start thinking about it in terms of the efficiencies, I mean Belichick understands analytics kind of instinctively I think and- I think he uses them, I think he's trying to play Koi when he says he doesn't use them. Yeah, well, I mean he stopped going for it a lot of fourth down, so you know. Okay, maybe not. You know, we'll see, we'll see exactly but like, you know in terms of just, you know, you know, running a 235 or 236 or whatever kind of defense to let teams run but really hopefully shut down their pass attack. That's not, that's probably a positive expected value type strategy. I'm actually looking at some of my notes for the Colts right now and it's kind of interesting because I predict them to get, their rush offense has been great. I predict them to get 5.2 yards per carry against an average rush defense and that's actually a little bit better than the 4.8 yards per pass attempt but that's because they have such a good rush offense behind that offensive line and Jacobi Prasett might not be as good as his touchdown rate suggests. So it's always gonna be team dependent. You know, obviously if you flip those numbers or I mean, even the average kind of NFL team is gonna be more efficient during the ball than they are running it, that's just kind of the truth. So yeah, so anyways, that's the analysis. So last year, the worst team against the rush on a per attempt basis based on number fires metrics was Kansas City. I think this is the route they're taking. We've also seen this with Wade Phillips all the time. He's always been someone who has allowed teams to run against him. The Rams were 10th worst against the rush last year. They were a great team. And I think that that's part of it. Like it seems like it is intentional because it's so consistent with Wade Phillips defense where he consistently doesn't grade out very well against the rush, his defenses don't. Andy Reed is the same thing and they're both very smart coaches. So I think there's a lot to that. I think that Frank Reich is smart enough to know that they're trying to bait him into running, but I still think they'll do it because that's what they've done when they've been on the road this so far this year. And that might actually be the good strategy with their personnel. I was just pulling out my numbers on Kansas City.  You don't wanna flip. And it's pretty much the exact same thing. I mean, I have them at 32nd and adjusted rush success rate on defense, 18th on, for passing. So yeah, it's not, yeah, it's, that's what they do. And it'd be interesting. Like we didn't see them make a lot of moves to upgrade their position, their situation at cornerback during the off season. So, you know, if they had kind of done that, it would more support kind of that strategy. But, you know, the numbers look very similar from last year to this year. Yeah, they did get Frank Clark, defensive end and Tyra Matthew add safety to try to help. And those are both past defense moves. So you always ask on your podcast on the football analytics show, if you could have lunch with someone or dinner with someone, I think Andy Reed would be a really fascinating guy to talk to. Yeah. Talk about football. Yeah, I think so for sure. He had a macaroni and cheese recipe that came out at one point. So you could have some good talk with Andy Reed. And I would be, I'd be inclined to talk some football with him. I think it'd be fun. Yeah, absolutely. And to figure out like what happened at the end of his Philly tenure. Yes, that I think, yeah, you as a former Eagles fan too, I'm sure that would especially interest you as well. That is all we have for this week. Before we close up shop though, add anything big going on over the power rank for the rest of this week? Yeah, I mean, you know, the free email newsletter, you get a sample of my best predictions and some analysis. So members actually have access to all the success rate adjusted for strength of schedule and numbers that I've been talking about for the NFL. I think like especially the next couple of weeks, it's kind of an invaluable tool to figure out how to get off your preseason priors and start doing some analysis. So yeah, that's available for members of my site. You can check it out at thepowerrank.net. You can find Ed's podcast, the football analytics show, wherever you get podcasts. And I think that it is important to look at those numbers to kind of know where we meet, maybe to reevaluate teams now that we have seen them with their current personnel groupings. If you have any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel podcast network at FanDuel podcast. Ed is on Twitter at thepowerrank. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald for producing for today, as always, and chopping up the videos for the at FanDuel Twitter account. Thank you, Cal, for that. And a thank you to those of you who tuned in for today. Thank you to JJ Zacharias and Eli Hershkovich, our two guests for this week, talking college football and NFL, to get you set for this weekend. I hope that all of your bets go well for week six of college football and week five of the NFL. Back at you next week to talk more football. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel podcast network.


Now, please write down isochoric. How does it look in PV graph parallel to y axis parallel to y axis. So this is P, this is V and the graph will look something like this. Okay, we are going from point one. So let us say point two. What is happening? Is it compression or expansion? None of them. None of them. Volume is constant. There is no compression or expansion. Okay, let's say at point one pressure is P1 and at point two pressure is P2. So this is P1 and P2. So let's say T1, T2 is also given to you and Cp and Cv are given to you. Then delta Q you have to write down and W you have to write down. W will be zero. Delta Q will be and Cv delta T constant volume specific you have to use. Okay, simple. Now, this is isochoric process. Next we are going to talk about isothermal process. By the way, every process has some process equation as well. What I mean to say is that there is a path. So there is a description of the path also. For example, for isobaric, you can say the process equation is pressure is constant, or you can say that volume by temperature is constant. Okay, so this is the process equation. P constant and V by T is constant at every location. Okay, similarly for isochoric process we have volume constant or I can say that at every location pressure by temperature is constant. Alright, so this you should know and from where P by T constant comes because Pv is equal to nrt, P into V is nrt. Basically V is equal to nrt by P. So if V is constant, T by P should be constant. And if T by P is constant, P by T is also constant. Okay, write down isothermal process. So we will try to plot that. We are all the time drawing PV graph only, but it need not be PV graph. It could be P and T, it could be volume and temperature, it could be between any two macro variables. So don't worry if the diagram is something else other than PV diagram. So you can expect other diagrams as well at times. So isothermal process has a process in which temperature is constant. What else I can say? T is constant and P into V is constant. Okay. Because PV is equal to nrt. So if T is constant, P into V is also constant. Now if pressure into volume is a constant, the PV graph will look like this. It will be a curve. It is basically a formula of rectangular hyperbola. So I don't know whether you have learned that in mathematics. So if this is x axis, this is y axis. So the equation of x into y is constant. This graph will be a rectangular hyperbola like this. Same way isothermal process looks like this. Okay. Now over here, I am trying to find out the different values of delta Q and W. Now tell me what is delta Q? Anyone? It is a thermal process. Temperature doesn't change. Delta Q is zero. All of you agree? Temperature of 0.1 is equal to temperature of 0.2. Is the heat absorbed zero? Is delta Q zero in this process? In isothermal process is delta Q zero. This take this pole is delta Q zero. All right. The answer is delta Q is not zero. What is done? How you written midterm exam guys? Anyways, see, why I am telling Nariman, hold your horses. So in the isochoric process, the delta Q is NCV delta T. In isobaric process, it is NCV delta T. But we don't know the specific heat capacity for isothermal process. But subconsciously we will be like, okay, delta T should be there. If delta T is there, then only heat will be supplied. Okay. Okay. What if whatever heat you supply, entire heat got converted into work. If entire heat got converted into work, internal energy doesn't change. Right. If you convert somehow entire energy into work, then internal energy of the gas will not change. Because of that, the kinetic energy of the molecule doesn't change and hence the temperature doesn't change. Or the internal energy doesn't change. Right. One and the same thing. Okay. So delta Q, we don't know how much it is. But whatever it is, if we use the first law of thermodynamics in isothermal process, the value of delta U will be zero or not. Yes. Right. Just give me one second. I'll open the door. Okay. Sorry for that. So what I was asking, will delta U be zero in isothermal process? Yes. Right. Delta U will always be NCV delta T only. Because of that, since delta T is zero, delta U always will be equal to zero. So whatever is a delta Q has to be equal to work done only according to first law of thermodynamics. Okay. Now, I may not have a direct formula of delta Q. So what I'll do is I will find out the work that instead work done is integral of PDV does not matter what is the process. So I'm going to use this formula itself to find out the work done between point one and point two. And then whatever comes, I'll say that is equal to the heat supplied also. Okay. So let's say the volume at point number one is V1 and volume at point number two is V2. Can you attempt and get the answer for the work done over here? The temperature of this process is let's say T. Isothermal process. So entire process temperature is T only. Try deriving it. I know it is written on the book. Derive yourself, all of you. See, right now, when you write PDV integral, the problem right now is that you have two variables, pressure as well as volume. Okay. So you cannot integrate it as such. You need to reduce it to a single variable. Okay. How can you reduce it to a single variable? We know that PV is equal to nRT. This is a state equation which is valid between the state variable or among the state variable at a particular this thing. So pressure can be written as nRT divided by V. A good thing about writing like this is that temperature is constant. So I'm basically writing pressure in terms of volume. So I'm reducing number of variables in this expression. So work done will be equal to integral of nRT by V dV. Okay. And when I'm going from point one to point two, my volume will be from V1 to V2 like this. So work done will be equal to what nRT comes out of the integral because it is a constant from V1 to V2 integral dV by V. And integral dV by V is natural log lnV, V1 to V2. So this can be written as nRT lnV2 minus lnV1. Okay. So work done will be equal to nRT lnV2 by V1. Okay. So this is a derivation of the work done in isothermal process. Okay. If you want to convert it to the natural log, work done will be equal to 2.303 nRT. If you want to convert it to log the base 10, sorry. So 2.303 nRT log to the base 10 V2 by V1. Same thing. This is natural log to the base E. Okay. Now tell me if you want to write down the same formula in terms of pressure. Let's say pressure at 0.1 is P1 and at 0.2 it is P2. Can I write the same expression in terms of pressure? It will be P1 by P2 instead of V2 by V1. Correct. So I know that P1 V1 is equal to P2 V2 as it is an isothermal process. So I will get P1 by P2 equal to V2 by V1. So same work done I can write down in terms of the pressure also nRT ln now P1 by P2. Okay. Now clearly the work done will be positive. If V2 is more than V1, then the log will be more log of the thing which is more than one will be positive. And work done will be negative if V2 is less than V1. Okay. So when final volume is more, the work is done by the system if final volume is less work is done on the system. So that is something which you can visualize also. Mathematically you don't need to find that out. Anyways, is it clear to all of you? So this is the work done and this is also the heat supplied. But if work done is negative, what can I say about the heat supplied? If work done is negative, what can I say about heat supplied? Sir, is it heat released? Correct. Then it is heat released. If work done is positive, then it is heat absorbed. Okay. So we have got delta Q is equal to W. So they are equal not only in terms of magnitudes but also in signs as well. So if W is negative, delta Q is also negative. If W is positive, delta Q is also positive. So like that.


Hey, this is Brett and this 2017 Dodge Challenger Hellcat is stock number 13165 Z. I'm here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, you're new and used sports car and Dodge Challenger headquarters. This 2017 Dodge Challenger Hellcat has the 6.2L supercharged V8 engine, puts out 707 horsepower with the red key, and it's paired up with the 8-speed automatic transmission. This car has been fully-safetyed and inspected by our service shop per the state of Wisconsin inspection process, has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off, and this car is 100% ready to go. Destroyer gray is the color and I shoot all my videos in 4K, so if you have HD capabilities on your computer, tablet, smartphone, or television, I recommend turning them on right now because it is your best way to check out the quality, condition options, and cleanliness of the vehicle before seeing it in person. And if you just like the video and want to subscribe to my YouTube channel, I do videos like this each and every day, and then click the bell notifications and you'll get updates on the videos I do each and every day here at Summit Auto. This one comes with the 20-inch painted alloy rims, comes with those big Brembo brakes with the slotted rotors there, Pirelli P0, 27540 ZR20 tires, and these tires I would say have probably about 60% of the tread left on them in the front. Front fender is in very nice condition, I didn't see any major dents or dings on there, it does come with the HID headlamps, LED running lights, and the front bumper and lower valence are in pretty nice condition, I didn't see any major scuffs or scrapes or cracks, and lower valence looks pretty good as well. Comes with the wrapped hood, get the cull induction as well as the heat extraction vents there, didn't see any dents or dings on that, looks really good. Passenger side front fender is in nice condition as well, and the passenger side rim, no major scuffs or scrapes on there looks really good. As you go down this side of this 2017 Dodge Challenger Hellcat, take note of how clean that body is, how reflective and mirror-like that paint is, I take these HD videos so if you are far away or even if you're close by and you just cannot make the trip down, but you're still interested in purchasing the car, you can see the car, hear the car, and have confidence in the vehicle that you're looking at before you even get here, so when you do get here there's absolutely no surprises, and you can make a smart and informed buying decision from wherever you're at, and if this video helps you make that buying decision, let your salesman know that you saw the video, that it was helpful, and that Brett sent you, and once again if you liked the video, you can subscribe to my YouTube channel, the upper right hand part of the screen, I got a link right there, in the back you get the Brembo brakes as well, and the slotted rotors, same size tires in the back here, and the back tires look like they have just as much tread as the front tires, I don't know how much we'll be able to see underneath here, but looks pretty good. Coming around to the back of the vehicle, rear bumpers in nice shape, with those have the backup parking sensors, the dual rear exhaust, rear bumpers in great shape, you get the LED tail lamps, and the deck lid is in nice condition too. I like that it has the trunk popper, you do get a car cover with this car, looks like the pedal overlays are back here as well, this one does have the Harman Kardon subwoofers, and the tire inflator kit is back here as well, nice and clean back here, shocks are doing a nice job holding that trunk lid up, as we come around the driver's side just as clean as I pass in his side, I didn't see any dents or dings on the rear quarter, this color is the same color as on the Jeeps as Sting Gray, and I believe on Chrysler's it's called Ceramic Gray, back rims in excellent shape, no scuffs or scrapes, and down the rest of the side of the car, doors look really good, does have the blind spot monitoring, heated mirrors, entering ghost system, inside the Hellcat package gives you the black leather and suede interior, this one has the SRT Hellcat logo stitched into the backrest, no rips, no tears, no major wear, power driver seat, factory floor mats, and auto headlamps, you do get power telescopic and tilt steering wheel, Harman Kardon Salmon scan, power windows, power locks, power mirrors, and then you get that suede insert right there, the back seats are just as clean as the front seats, no rips or tears back there, and it does have the latch child safety system for any child car seats you may have, and those seats do fold on for extra storage in the trunk, turn the ignition on, check out the miles, the radio, and everything that this car has to offer on the interior, you can see that it has 8,744 miles, you do get digital spinometer, 7 inch LCD display, instrument cluster is very nice and clean, comes with the heated leather wrap steering wheel, cruise controls on the right, Bluetooth and information center controls on the left, you get the paddle shifters as well as audio controls in the back, it's the flat bottom steering wheel, this one has the 8.4 for C radio, AM FM and Sirius XM radio capabilities, this one does have the factory navigation system, you can see that's highway 41 right there, so that is working nicely, you can have your climate controls here including your dual climate controls, you can do your heated seats, cooled seats and heated steering wheel right there, and this is also where your backup camera shows up, you have all your different apps in here including your performance pages, and it does have where you can connect Android Auto or Apple CarPlay, you actually did a demo on an 8.4 for C radio if you want to check that out, that's in the upper right hand part of the screen but you can project your cell phone to the screen, and it does have those performance pages, they do take a second to load, so while they're loading I will point out that down here you have your SRT, your launch, parking sensors, stability control, dual climates and your 8-speed automatic transmission, this one does have the keyless entry with the remote start on it, notice you get that nice machine metal finish on the center console and dash, there are your performance pages, you have your timers, your different gauges that you can have, and your G-Force, and your engine and all that good stuff, so a lot of cool stuff you can do with that radio, passenger side format and seat are in excellent condition, no rips or tears on there, and the headliner is in very nice condition as well, does have map lights, home link buttons for your garage door security systems and lane systems and assist and SOS buttons in the Ruby mirror, we'll start it up and take a look under the hood, also check out that exhaust, starts right up, no check engine lanes or anything like that, there's your backup camera, you can see that is working nicely, love those LED tail lamps, you can feel the air that it's pushing with that 6-2, it's really the only engine that you really get that with, at least here in the picture studio, so I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today, and hopefully from this HD video you've been able to verify the quality and condition of this car all the way around inside out, see those HID headlamps, under the hood we have the 6.2 liter V8 supercharged heavy engine, engine bay is very clean, runs very smooth, once again this car has been fully safe and inspected by our service shop as a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off, and this car is 100% ready to go, there is your emissions sticker, and I would highly recommend this car from a quality, condition, and looks standpoint, and to see more pictures of this Challenger, one of brother 450 new and used cars, trucks, SUVs, minivans, Wranglers, sports cars, Challengers, Chargers, Mustangs, GT500s, Corvettes, Camaros, you name it we got to go to their website right there summitauto.com, full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle from two locations all at summitauto.com and if you'd like to check out more HD videos you can go to youtube.com slash summitauto, remember to like, subscribe, and share on this video and all the videos that you see there, click the bell notifications you'll get all the updates on the videos I do each and every day here at Summit Auto, in fact in a second you will see a link to subscribe to my YouTube channel in the upper left to link to more Challenger videos like this one the upper right, link to this vehicle on our website in the lower left and a link to one of our latest YouTube videos in the lower right, click those check us out and we're super excited to help you with this Ultra Clean 2017 Dodge Challenger Hellcat in destroyer gray clear coat, thanks again for checking out the video, remember to like, subscribe, and share on my YouTube channel, I really appreciate it, thanks again.


Hello, what is going on everybody? My name is John Hammond and welcome back to the YouTube video of mine and in this video and the next couple I'm gonna try and get into the Leviathan war game on Over the wire an online war gaming website So we just finished up Bandit in a previous series now I want to move into Leviathan. It's kind of at least seemingly the next or quote-unquote one of the suggested next games to play There's a little bit of description as to what the game is not terribly difficult on the rating scale Doesn't require any knowledge of programming just a little bit of common sense and some knowledge about basic Unix commands Some of these are kind of clever and you may not have been used to that syntax or seen them before So that's why I wanted to showcase them and You'll see in the web interface that all of the levels level one all the way through level seven here or level six I guess I don't know They don't have any information So we're probably just going to be only in the terminal the entire time no real need to have this web browser so I'm hop over to the terminal and you can see that I have a change my theme a little bit just to Hopefully attract some. I don't know maybe some others that might see these blue and green not not blue with the heck black and green hacker stuff in the thumbnail and I Don't know maybe get some more viewers that way. I don't know just low hanging fruit to get the script kiddies so Let's make a connection to the war game Leviathan It's a it says here in the description of the of the war game The username is Leviathan zero as usual same with how it was for Bandit zero and the password is Leviathan zero for just his first level make sure we use that as our username and the host name remember we're using the new port is 2223 for this war game for Leviathan and Once we can make a connection it will want to ask for the password it. Let's start to use that SSH pass setup that we had before so I'll create a file for this user and put the password in there and I actually learned from a Comment in the last series for Bandit that the command substitution in bash is normally I had learned it through back ticks However, that's really old and it's pretty much deprecated So the more common style that has superseded is to use a dollar sign like you would for kind of variables, but replace Or surround your command in single parentheses So that will do the same thing and it's at least more proper or at least more common these days So I'm just going to copy paste that whole command because I'm lazy and Now we are connected Eventually, okay, cool. So you can see the logo here over the wire and we are in so let's see what we got Nothing by default in the home directory so let's list out all things backup is a Different-looking directory that we aren't usually seen before it's hidden because of that period there So there's a bookmarks at HTML in here. Let's just see what that is And it's a lot of HTML. Holy crap super gross stuff Um Knowing that we want to have a password, let's just try and grep for password in this and we get a hit. Okay, cool Looks like password for life and one is this thing. Okay Kind of a cheap hack whatever but that got us a password let's put this in our Leviathan one file and Now let's modify our connection line to move to Leviathan one So all we did for that one was just find the file It was hidden hidden directory And then grep through it for just a string password because that we know that's all we wanted to find was the password for the next level That's how these war games work. So now we're in Leviathan one and what is this thing check password? What Wrong password. Goodbye. All right So it's probably asking for a kind of string in what this password may be So I'm gonna run strings on it on that file on that binary to see what else might be in here Right, what other plain text and readable strings might be present in the binary? There's the prompt. There's probably the shell command It'll execute once we get it correct and it doesn't look like it's doing anything else or anything that we can really see in here So let's look at some other tools L trace is a good one for simple command line binary like Reconnaissance I need the dot in the forward side here to actually run the binary because L trace will Follow along with it. So it looks like it's gonna run printf and then the gate character for our input. So Hello, I enter And we can see that okay, it runs get character a couple times and then string compare str compare hell So the first three letters if I guess what I entered and then the word sex, okay? I suppose that is the password. So let's try and run With that input and we get a dollar sign. We get a bash prompt Well, not so much bash Maybe just a regular shell as we saw in the string up there just been sh So who am I? I'm Leviathan 2 now cool. That means I can cat out the password for the next Level by one Leviathan 2 and this directory here. It's that real life and pass is just noted in the Noted in the prompt that okay You can look in the center Leviathan pass folder for the various password levels So, okay, that is the token to get us to the next level. Let's break out of this Put this in a Leviathan 2 file so we can save it for later and now we can move into Leviathan 2 for the next wargame Cool. All right That's all for now. I just want to get you guys your feet wet with the game and get us set up So I'll see you in the next video when we tackle the next level of either. Thank you guys so much for watching Hope you're enjoying the series and please maybe if you want to like comment subscribe do what you got to do All right. See you later


The headliners on Wednesday night's slate for daily fantasy baseball, our matchers are in cold. These guys are pitching lights out right now. They are back to kind of the form they were before the sticky stuff discussion began. And it's always tough to pass up guys with like a 35% strikeout rate in DFS. The question we have is, can any of the other 18 pitches on the slate match them from an upside perspective? And there is one guy who I think can do so. The problem is, his game is pretty likely to be rained out. So our search for a contender for the top spot between Scherzer and Cole is gonna be tough. So let's dive on and get you set for Wednesday's slate. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast network in numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Here to break down Wednesday's 10 a game main slate with lock set for 705, 4 to 90. Mets and the Marlins game is already been postponed from this slate. So if you did some research yesterday, just know that game is no longer there. I would expect it will be joined by the Phillies and the Nationals. That game, I don't know how it happens honestly. It looks really rainy. There's a crazy amount of rain. I will mention Aaronola in the pitching section because he would be awesome if we were able to use him today, but it seems super unlikely. So I would kind of just assume that game's not going to play. If you're looking at this slate, trying to decide where to go, just operate under the assumption that you can't use Nolo, which is a bummer. Cause I do like him. I will talk about him in the pitching section very briefly, but probably not going to happen for today. We'll let you know who we are looking at outside of Scherzer and Cole, if anyone, in just one second. My first quick reminder to check out this week's PGA DFS podcast with myself and Brandon Gedullo. We broke down the tour championship, the unique scoring format for that event. Who could move up the leaderboard throughout the event, our favorite options and much more. You can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts, Apple podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcasts, you name it, you can find us there. And while you're there, please leave us a rating and review as well. Also, we are back on air once again, later on today, 4pm, talking more MLB DFS. And as always, you can get your questions in. Today it'll be on YouTube, Twitter and Facebook, get your questions in on those formats, happy to take them on air and get you set for tonight's slate of MLB DFS. Hey soccer fans, this season, FanDuel and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's Soccer Pick'Em, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you have to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You will earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDuel and enter the Captain Morgan Soccer Pick'Em Today. Must be 21 plus to participate. For more details, this is FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the Captain. Pitching preview for this Wednesday Slate, Max Scherzer is the top guy on FanDuel4 today checking in at $11,500. Garrett Cole right in his tracks at $11,200. Chris Sailor's 10-5 didn't have Sail in the Things to Watch but would note it seems like he's on a pretty low cap in terms of pitches right now, pitches slash innings. He's gone five innings twice, went into the sixth last time but then left after he walked a guy and hit a guy. So, Sailor's 10-5 technically in play, probably not gonna be in my player pool for today. Similar thing for Carlos Rodan who we'll talk about in Things to Watch. He is 10-2, Aaron Nola and that game likely to be ranked out as 10,000. Kevin Gosman is $9,500. Max Freed is 9,000. James Caprellian and Steven Matz are the others at $8,000 or higher. Everybody else is below 7,000 so it falls off a massive, massive cliff. And for me, I think that we're looking at the top of the pool here. It's worth just dedicating this entire opening section to the situation with Scherzer and Cole. I am gonna put Nola in here just to discuss him in case some miracle happens and suddenly we get to play that game. Just not expecting that. So, I'll talk about Nola briefly and how I would rank him in case he's able to go. I wanna start here with Scherzer who is facing the Braves. It's a tough matchup. There's a lot of power in this lineup for the Braves but they will strike out. They have a 24% strikeout rate versus righties and Scherzer is dealing right now. Once the sticky stuff discussion really caught on, they started to enforce things. Scherzer started throwing more changeups. We are up to 11 starts in that sample with more changeups and Scherzer's strikeout rate is 33%. That ranks third on this slate. One of the guys ahead of him is Sale who is not on a full leash. The other guy is Cole who we'll talk about in a second. Scherzer had 10 strikeouts on the road against the Padres last time out. They're not playing great right now, as you know, the Padres but they are still a lower strikeout team and a lower strikeout team than the Braves specifically. That's why Scherzer is on this list. It is not a matchup I want to target with the Braves but I do think that when it's a pitcher as good as Max Scherzer, I can make an exception. I mentioned that Cole has a higher strikeout rate than Scherzer at his most relevant samples. Let's go through him next. His most relevant sample is the nine starts with more sliders and his strikeout rate in those nine starts is 35%. We've seen Cole let up hard contact just 34% of the time. He's looked good. Since he returned from the COVID IL, he has made three starts and he's had nine strikeouts and two of those. One of those starts was against the Angels and that is the team he will face tonight. The swinging strike right there was 16.7%. It's a very good number. And Sebastian's had since he was on the COVID IL but now Cole is facing them for the second time in four starts. This game is on the road. So there are a couple of dents in the armor for Cole. I think the matchup overall in a vacuum is better for Cole than it is for Scherzer but a couple of issues working against him specifically kind of a close to repeat matchup in this game being on the road. Obviously the strikeouts are very fun though which is why he is still in this discussion. Just very briefly on Nola, if we had access to him I would love him because he's facing the Nationals, 85 WRC plus against Reides, 133 ISO, really rough team and Nola has been awesome. He has a 32% strikeout rate over his past 10 starts with altered movement on his fastball. His 3.06 skill and track of ERA ranks third behind Salem Cole. He's facing Washington, great matchup. So if the weather clears out, I'll be very on an era Nola but I just don't think that game will play. If it does play, I would rank Nola second in this top tier. Scherzer would be first. It is a tough matchup but he is unreal right now. He is at home, they do strikeout. Scherzer's number one. Nola would be second thanks to the matchup. Cole is third. It's not the matchup really again that scares me away as much as it being on the road and it being the second time the Angels had seen him within a couple of stars. So I would happily bump him up to second if Nola gets wiped out due to rain but if we can get access to Nola, he would be number two for me for tonight. I wouldn't be shocked if by the time you're listening to this though, that game is gone. So again, Scherzer one, potentially Nola two, Cole three but I'm very happy to put Cole second if we don't get access to Nola. The value options on this slate are, I would dean them at night there. I think that's pretty fair. I don't think you can feel great about anybody there. So I will use the closest guy I can stomach to being a value. He is not a value in the usual definition of below $9,000 but like, you know, I'm not doing it. It's pretty rough below 9,000. The closest guy I can get there is Kevin Gosman against Milwaukee. He is $9,500. So again, above our usual limit but Max Reed is the only other guy lower salary than Gosman who I could recommend potentially but for Reed is just $500 less. He's on the road facing the Dodgers. So I'm just gonna talk about Gosman instead. If you want a true value play, good luck. I, my best wishes, that is all I can say. Milwaukee, who Gosman is facing is not the auto target offense they once were. The William Davis trade really did help turn things around for them. They have a 24% strikeout rate against Reddy's. That is like five percentage points better than it was at one point this year. It is still higher than the average though and Gosman is a guy who can take advantage of a high strikeout rate. Gosman this year didn't initially use his splitter a ton which makes sense. It's a pretty grating pitch on pitchers. So it makes sense to ramp up into that but he's been at full use on the pitch for the past 15 starts. Strikeout rate in that time for Gosman is 27%. He has a 3.89 skill interactive ERA. He is walking guys and he's letting apart contact which is why I talked about NOLA before. If I can use him at 10,000 I would do it over Gosman in a heartbeat. Just again, don't think NOLA's game will play for today. The upside is there though for Gosman. He had seven strikeouts a couple of starts ago. He had eight and nine, a few starts before that. And a lot of the bigger games for Gosman have come at home which makes sense because his strikeout rate there is 30% and it's also a great part for pitching. So I am okay with using Gosman but I really do think the proper way to play this late tonight is to build around Scherzer and Cole and then NOLA if we can. The odds that one of those two or three guys is the highest scoring pitcher on the slate is very high. So my focus for today is getting up to those guys, locking them in, taking the high score and trying to identify value in the hitters. Speaking of which, let's move now to our stacking section and it will focus around offenses that we can use with Scherzer and Cole. That does mean some good stacks will get de-prioritized a bit. So the Yankees are a team that I do like to stack for today just harder to stack them in terms of value. We'll talk about Cleveland in terms of a lack of value but we do need to try to identify teams we can stack while using Cole and Scherzer. One team that you might not think of in that regard but I do think works depending on how the lineup cranks out is the Chicago White Sox. I think they've got to be the top stack for today. We got good matchups elsewhere and we'll go through those in a second but the White Sox are the one good offense. We've gotten a super plus spot. In facing Max Krannick, Krannick is coming back up from AAA where things weren't really going so hot. His ERA was 5.10, he had a 19% strikeout rate. His walk rate was good but that means a lot of balls in play. We like that scenario for stacking a lot. ERA over five, low strikeout rate, low walk rate and those were his AAA numbers. In the majors, Krannick has a 4.96 skill interactive ERA across five starts. His hard hit rate 39% with a lot of fly balls. All that led to a 7.20 ERA in that very small sample. Now, Krannick has to face a team that's as healthy as it has been all year long with Yasmini Grondahl being back. Everybody is basically here for the White Sox and it's making me want to stack them quite a bit. So it's really hard not to be in on the White Sox here. The hope is that Yasmini Grondahl plays. He has caught back to back games given the knee injury. I would doubt he catches today but he could DH, it would mean no Andrew Vaughn but that's not a huge loss against the righty. Grondahl has been awesome all year. He has been on a power binge since he came back. I would love to be able to use Grondahl at $2,800. So I hope he's in there. I also hope Brian Goodwin plays. That would kind of be dependent on a Tim Anderson is sitting out again with his injury. So we're a pro Tim Anderson podcast. We hope Tim Anderson plays. If he doesn't though and Goodwin plays I would be okay with Goodwin. So check out Goodwin, check out Grondahl. Since our Hernandez is not the worst option either could have some value on this White Sox team despite the fact they are pretty good and we don't view them as being a value stack. Couple of teams that I think could give us some like almost minimum salary guys are the Twins and the Royals. Let's go through them now because if you use those teams maybe you can stack the Yankees with Cole or Scherzer kind of doubt it, but it's worth a shot. Starting with the Twins, I was on them last night. Didn't really go super hot but I am back on them once again. The first thing that I love here for the Twins is the matchup. They're facing Justin Steele who is transitioning into the rotation. The first three starts for Steele have not been great. He has a 5.08 skill interactive ERA. His fly ball rate is 39%. So he's losing one of the keys to his success when he was a reliever and Steele's walking a lot of guys. That is a profile we can stack against. And you could have done so successfully with some pretty rough teams earlier on that Steele was facing as he was transitioning to the rotation. So I think that that's number one. We can use lower level teams against Steele, the Twins not the highest level team right now but that's encouraging for them. The second reason that the Twins bring us some really good value. It's not just valued in that they have lower salary guys in the lineup but they've got some guys with power and that's kind of hard to come by. So I think it's wise to be in on the Twins here leaning on that value to spend up a pitcher and get to guys like Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson and Jorge Palaccio. You're not gonna get all three of them in there but you can't get at least maybe one of them in there. The two key guys here in terms of value are Brent Rooker and Ryan Jeffers. The last time they faced a lefty those two guys at seventh and sixth respectively and that's high enough for us to like them. Rooker has a lot of power. Jeffers has a 254 ISO versus lefties. So those guys are like the keys for me. I am willing to use Rob Ruff-Sneider. He hasn't had a good isolated slugging this year but he does have a 44% hard hit rates and a 40% flat ball rate. That means that the power could come eventually. So Ruff-Sneider, Rooker, Jeffers, all guys I'd be willing to go to to give myself a lot of flexibility in terms of my second stack but also making it easier to get to Scherzer and Cole. So I would check out the twins, check out those three values specifically and see what you can make work. Other team I mentioned there was the Royals and I think that both sides of this game between Kansas City and Cleveland are pretty stackable. Kansas City is the one that brings more value so I'm gonna ride with them here and we'll go through Cleveland in things to watch. Kansas City is facing Logan Allen. Allen has been up and down between AAA and the majors. He has a 7.95 ERA and AAA. It's 7.53 in the majors. It should be pretty obvious why we'd wanna stack here. I do wanna note that Allen did have a pretty massive velocity spike in his most recent start. That was against the Red Sox, very good team versus lefties and Allen held them to just one run over six innings which is pretty easily his best start this year. There are a couple issues with that start. The first one is that his swinging strike rate was still 6.8% and that's actually lower than his season long mark. The second is that he still led up a 50% hard hit rate.  So he didn't get whiffs and he led up hard contact. That's what we want for stacking. So even off the good start last week, I am still fine stacking against Allen here. I think the Royals do great out really well. The goal here when stacking the Royals should be to get to Salvador Perez. I mean, like he's $3,400 which seems kind of high for a Royals guy but also for a dude with like 97 home runs this year that also is not that high. It's actually 38, I was close enough. 97, 38, whatever. Either way, a lot of Dinger Salvador Perez, I want to get there. But there are a couple of guys who showed power in triple A who could make it pretty easy to get to Perez at $3,400. The big one for me is Edward Olivares. He could hit cleanup tonight. He had a 226 ISO in triple A. It's 221 in the majors as well. So I do like Olivares. Emmanuel Rivera had a 319 ISO in triple A. He has a 48% hard hit rate in the majors. Hasn't translated to great success yet but I think it could eventually. Rivera, $2,400. Olivares, $2,100. I think those two guys can be big keys helping you get to Perez and Scherzer or Cole. So the twins and the Royals are the teams you want to turn to when you're looking for like these almost minimum salary guys who can go deep. And I think that all those guys, to me, hyper viable for today. Let's move to things to watch and stick with that same game talking about Cleveland. They're facing Jackson Kowar. Kowar pitching pretty well in triple A recently. He had a 34% strikeout right there now. But the quick peak we got at Kowar in the big leagues earlier this year didn't go so well. So I'm fine using guys against him. I prefer the Kansas City side due to the salaries and due to the matchup. But, you know, Cleveland definitely works. Bobby Bradley specifically went deep again last night. So it seems like he's getting healthier again. I like him a lot at $2,500. So Bobby Bradley, to me, pretty solid option for today. I will be excited to be on Carlos Rodan in the future. And I would love to use him tonight. I just don't think I can. And it's not about him, not about matchup. It's all about pitch count. Rodan came off the IL last week and went 67 pitches. I'd expect him around 80 to 85 tonight. That likely means he'd be fully stretched out after this, but probably not for tonight. So hopefully Rodan works that pitch count up so we can be back on him in the very near future. But as for just tonight specifically, I'll be taking more of a wait-and-see approach. The Yankees are a tough team to stack with Cole and Scherzer, which is why they weren't in the top three, but they're awesome via the salary to get there. They're facing Paqui Notton, which is a tremendous name. Notton does get some ground balls, but everything else says we can stack against him. So maybe you can get some Gary Sanchez and Luke Void as one-offs here, but I'm not expecting to be able to get a full stack here. I will say though, like if you've got like $3,800 left, put Giancarlo Stanton in and don't look back. Like you need, I think for one-offs, they are at a great spot. So to me, the Yankees are a solid team today. I'm just not expecting to have a lot of salary to burn to get to them for myself. Let's finish up here with the Dinger calls for today. The boring one will be the guy we talked about before, Salvador Perez, 38 home runs this year, facing Logan Allen, lets up a ton of balls in play, lets up a lot of hard contact. I think that Perez is just too good to deny right now. So Salvador Perez will be the boring home run call for today. The more fun one, I didn't get a chance to talk about the Blue Jays at all in the stacking section. They're facing that Harvey for today. So should probably talk about them at some point, but I would assume that we get Corey Dickerson in this lineup and Dickerson has only five home runs so far this year, but his numbers with the Blue Jays show, I think he can actually go deep. Facing Matt Harvey, unfortunately, George Springer got hurt again last night. So should increase the odds that Dickerson plays. I think Dickerson has a good shot to go deep tonight. And if you can stack the Jays, feel free to do so. I just ranked them below the Yankees in terms of like high salary stacks below the white socks as well, just because Harvey has been a tiny bit more competent recently. So check out the Jays. I like Dickerson for a home run. I like Salvador Perez for a home run. And hopefully that will allow you to get to Max Scherzer or Garrett Cole for tonight. That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop. But once again, as always, we are back later on today for PM Eastern on the Fandil YouTube, Twitter and Facebook pages breaking down your questions, taking them live on air and getting you said, for tonight's slate of MLB DFS as the lineups come out. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandil Podcast Network at Fandil Podcast. Don't forget to subscribe to the Fandil or the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast to check out the E-Check Fantasy Podcast. Myself and Brandon Cadulla breaking down the tour championship to get set for what should be a fun weekend of golf at Eastlake. We'll talk to you all once again on Thursday to get you set for that main slate. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fandil Podcast Network.