Order number eight is time to skate Panera brand two items 3.3 miles for 675.   It's February 18th, and we already start dashing baby order number one Walmart to order 71 items 10.7 miles for 2050 get with me about to knock this out again Make sure you subscribe, but give me a thumbs up.  We're about to get to this bag. Let's go Oh Order number two what it do Jewel Osco 10 items 1.3 miles for $9. We're holla. Let's go Let's get this money. I'm about to get two things my business partner about to get two things if you want to leave in the middle Hey, two voices cool, but I don't want when they pull the same way That's an old school saying baby So I have to go to our trouble get the water They want the fresh cream water 24 felt That's 35 Spring water only water About this And come back I'm gonna put on these stairs Ordered number three baby for their brand five items 701 yards for 675. Let's drive Red, let's get this bread We're kind of early anyway, but I'm supposed to be here until 10 or two and it's actually 950 swarming in the door Let's just like that. We're ready to get busy baby. Let's go with this for their brand. Hello Have a look for bill of fans There you go, sir. You guys have a great day Ordered number four. We're in the door. Let's go jewel osco two items 8.1 miles for 14 dollars. We are holliless get You gotta get two things at once baby Somebody get it in early morning. I'm doing both. I think some of most of us are you gonna come up Thank you Thank you. You guys have a great day. We are here to jump off this jewel osco Hello, yes, ma'am And then I'll carry this thing for you too if you need me to You're welcome. Wherever you want me to put it, ma'am Okay, I don't want to get your floor wet There you go. Thank you. You have a great day. I closed the door for you. You're welcome. You have a good one Order five look alive.  This is my first time ever coming in this place. I don't know what to expect I know that they bump Freezing out here How you doing? Yeah, that's two of them All right, appreciate it, brother All right. Thank you. Have a good one order number six. We try to get rid of Panera rare four items 3.4 miles for 675 Let's drive a bee. Let's see if they got it together. Oh, there we go right there. Oh, let me make sure No drunk We are here baby. It is Eskimo out there that we employ so hard. Yes, sir skid There you go, sir. Thank you. Have a great one. You too Order number seven. Thank god for his blessings buttermilk two items 1.1 miles for 575. Let's drive We are here, baby. Let's see if they got us together. Oh, how you doing, sir? I have a pickup for Laura L From gurney, we made us kill Chopping that telly Order number eight is time to skate Panera brand two items 3.3 miles for 675. Let's drive We just got to add on cafe super 16 items 1.7 miles for six dollars. We are holla Catherine Yes, ma'am That's a big joint Thank you There you go. Thank you. Have a great day Guess what that last order we just delivered guess how much we got wow 22 we just got 22 dollars for 1.7 miles. You can't I can't believe I can't make this up, baby We just got that 22. That's what I'm talking about. Let's go I already just messed up guys. I when I went to Panera, I picked up the wrong bag apparently here she is right now Sorry about that. I don't know That's definitely not moving too fast. I'm gonna go there and I'm gonna come right back. Okay. All right. Thank you. Sorry about that So we actually took somebody else's order name stephen her name is shelby's All right, man. I can't believe I just did that Moving too fast guys learn from my mistakes. I'll be doing too much. I'll be moving too fast Sometimes I'll I'll be messing up stuff So you guys want to make sure you take your time and really look where you're going in these stores I'll be rushing too much trying to get to this money now to mess up now I'm losing money because I got to go back drop this back off and then get the new bag and then drop that back off to her again I tweaked Anyway Do not skip the ads Smash that subscribe button Give me a thumbs up. Let's go Now we have to go back in here and try to drop this order off. I don't even know what else I'm supposed to do Let me go tell the guy at the counter I grabbed the wrong order. They constantly made it over again. I don't know what I did. I know I messed up Excuse me Excuse me. I picked up the wrong order. Oh, this for you stephen Shelby No, ma'am Okay, yes, it was Panera bread. Okay. It was this one Panera bread. Yeah I don't know I can't I can't go get my phone to give her a call back and ask her Would you like me to do that? It was probably like 20 to 30 minutes ago I'm gonna give my phone sir. I left it in the car. I'm gonna give my phone to make sure So we're making the order right now Somebody else. I don't know what's going on No, I just wear I have a youtube channel So I do a youtube for uh, like doing a door dance over each and all that stuff And I'm a real estate agent. So I do like house reviews and being car reviews and everything Yeah But it's also good to have a camera because you never know what might happen Yeah Yes, sir, I don't somebody took that order to hand to you, but it wasn't for her. I don't know what happened I don't know what's called door dance or what, but I don't think so I don't know what happened. Thank you. You have a great day. Sorry about that How does he know I was gonna be here? She's pretty good, huh? That law again for the 50th time. Sorry about that. The order wasn't there. They had to remake it So that's even better You have a great day Order number nine. We are on the grind to the end of time. It's two jupole orders One is two items 3.3 miles for 675 and the other one is six Items 3.3 miles for four dollars. We are hungry out of pocket for that photo. Either way go. You already know what time Let's go We are here with jupole Hey, baby. Let's get this thing. Oh my god All right. Yes, sir for israel, right? Yes, sir. There you go.  Yes, sir. You have a great day, sir Order number 10 is time to get it in order number 11. Thank god for his blessings wall greens 1.3 miles for 725 Let's try order number 12. It's time to prevail order number 13. Let's get this greens order 14 and 15 We bought to get this green out back steak house six items nine miles for 14 50 get with me Guess what? We also have a walmart instor pickup three orders six items 21.2 miles for 28 50 Get with me. This is the plan stan. We're pulling up to walmart right now I know the seat belt thing is bother because it's bother. Oh, it's it's off. No, okay We pull up to walmart right now.  That's what we do. We get money. What you doing? I hope you got that dashing. What we doing getting money. That's all we want to do is get money So if you want to subscribe make sure you subscribe button Give me a thumbs up and do not skip that if you get money. Give me a thumbs up If you get money Put the money bags in the comment section That's what we doing. Let's go Do a drop off baby. That's more of our drop off man. We don't know we write by the highway I know you're here. I'm talking like this, huh? It's critical. We're on the side of the road Hit it with that photo y'all right now. Oh And just like that it is the end of the video. I hope you guys enjoyed the content, baby We back at it again tomorrow. So make sure you lock in make sure you spend that subscribe And if you haven't done so give me a thumbs up and do not skip the ad today. We got to that bag We got 201 78 year of a time to skate babe, babe Not only that we did it in about I think six hours Six little out Like that 201 78 those orders was flowing this morning like earlier during the day in the daytime I mean earlier like at lunchtime and breakfast out them George was flowing But we do need to talk about the elephant in the room the elephant in the room is I messed up so bad When I went to Panera brand and got picked up the wrong order I couldn't believe I was I ain't gonna lie. I was I was I was I was highly upset about that because I tweaked Then I didn't tell you guys this when I went back there the order was not even there I don't know what happened. The order wasn't there make sure you guys lock in tomorrow We got 201 78 today tomorrow We're about to get 200 plus again and then the next thing again So make sure you lock in I see you guys on the next one. We're going we're going we're flowing You already know in the zdk and I'm on my way


So when I was in retail in the mid-90s, we were doing a lot of data warehousing and analytics and at my non-profit job, we were regular users of business intelligence. So for me it was already in my mindset to use data for predictive purposes and to look at correlations to see how one variable influences another. So in some ways higher education I think is late to come to the game on analytics for both learning and administrative purposes. And so I think as CIOs we have a job where we need to train our cabinets and other people even on what are dashboards, what are analytics, what are key performance indicators, why are they important, how could they be helpful to the way that we make decisions and then we have a role to train our IT departments because typically people in IT work on a particular system for an extended period of time such as a student information system or system that handles fundraising and development or a learning management system and they may not think about how the information in those different systems could be linked together to help us understand things like recruiting, retention, how to set up programs, how to schedule classes and how to interact with alumni and serve them.


Okay, we're back. We're live. I'm Jake Fidel. This is Think Tech on a given Monday. It's the one o'clock block We're looking from the east and we're looking to Steve Zercher and he is in Kobe, Japan at Kansai Gaidai University Teaching entrepreneurship and business and doing a lot of administration these days because it has to be done And we're gonna talk about that we're gonna talk about a life in Kobe life in Japan and life with the virus Right now with Steve Zercher. Hi Steve. Welcome back to the show Thank you so much. It's good to join you as usual Jay. I appreciate it Be nice of who was under better circumstances, but we're doing the best we can Well, I think it's important that we talk to you We've been talking to people really hither and yon and we want to you know, may I say take take your temperature in Kobe And see what's happening So far so good Okay, we want to Education in Kansai Gaidai and Gaidai and Let me first kind of just catch up everybody on the situation in Japan Which is not good unfortunately So I checked this morning outside of the Diamond Princess, which is its own separate category If you look at the list of infections Japan's now gone over 500 we're at 530 cases and every day it's increasing So despite the efforts of the Prime Minister and the Ministry of Health To try and reduce the number of infections The increase is still continuing here and there's a sense that it's going to go How many people have you lost nine people have died? So mostly older people So the death rate is not as high as like the United States the US I noticed this morning the US actually has more Infections now than Japan that was not the case last week, but US is moving up rapidly But the mortality rate infections are directly proportionate the amount of testing going on So in the US we probably not testing enough because we don't have the test kits So you have that understated number of cases and the deaths Well, you know that they are what they are so that our rate may be higher as against the known cases The known cases may be less than the real cases. So what about you? Are you testing is Japan testing? No, no, we're in the same boat as the United States There's a sense that there are many many more people that are infected because the testing Policy the number of kits that's been distributed is quite low This is a major criticism of the Japanese government right now that they've totally mishandled The testing aspect of the coronavirus and infections So I think the general opinion is that these numbers the ones that I just gave you 530 are Woefully under reported and that the number of people who have infections is much much higher so one other thing to report is that Today the diet, which is the Congress equivalent is going to pass legislation allowing the prime minister Abe to declare a state of emergency So he would be able to shut down businesses order events to be closed About two weeks ago. He recommended that schools close and about half of them have But with this state of emergency legislation being passed He may begin to order schools to be closed and they'll have to do it. So that's a situation Right now. So we're I'm kind of expecting that with this legislation being passed That the minister the prime minister Abe who's been criticized for doing too little in the first five or six weeks Of the coronavirus arriving especially with the diamond princess. That was a disaster just the government mishandled that Terribly, I think I told you two weeks ago that they actually allowed people to go off the boat directly into the public They were getting on trains and taxis and going home You know when the US was taking people off that boat They put them automatically into a 14-day quarantine at the Air Force bases and so forth But the Japanese government said yeah, just go home. It's okay And now the infection rate is being linked back to those people who came off the boat who were not showing symptoms at the time When they were leaving but are showing symptoms now or are actually sick now So what what is the government doing in terms of containment right now aside from this closing the schools? They're also People from China and Korea South Korea are no longer allowed in the country that just went down yesterday So previously people who were coming from those countries were being recommended to go into self-quarantine for 14 days But now they're getting much stricter about that so that Three million visas have been cancelled now mostly Chinese tourists that were planning to come Over the next month or so. I think it goes through for the next month that Visas from those two countries are now invalidated so getting stricter when it comes to Allowing people from level three countries like South Korea and China Korea has retaliated and is not allowing any Japanese citizens to go to Korea now as well Actually, Japan's the number of countries That no longer allow Japanese people to visit. It's in the mid-20s Like Israel is one example. No Japanese people can go there So some kind of tip About the health system in general is the is the Japanese health system Adequate to handle these 530 cases and and more as they as they appear That's also a major worry that If this the infection rate really takes off like it has in Korea or In Germany or France or other countries or the United States frankly for that matter the numbers really increase There's a sense that the Japanese health system although we have socialized medicine here and everyone is eligible. We don't have that problem that We have in the United States There's not a sense of confidence that the health system here will be able to handle the number of people potentially that could become infected over the next couple of months So there's worries about that as well. How about the availability of masks? Masks and and sanitizing lotion and all that is that is that easily easily obtainable? No, there it's it's totally sold out now. So I Was in Costco just about a week or so ago and they were giving one box per customer So it's under quote a Costco had some supply by the way I don't know if this is happening in Hawaii, but every single person going into Costco that day was buying toilet paper I've never seen anything like that in my life before I There was an executive who was there at that store and I started talking to him I said what's going on and he said we have no idea, but we sold a hundred and seventy five thousand dollars of toilet paper in the last two days That's so irrational. It's just I know but it's there's panic. It just shows that the Worry that's out there right now. I don't know why it's fixating on toilet paper because there's no shortage whatsoever I think it happened here. It is happening here in the same way and and the hoarding notion and Here in Hawaii. I recall that in the late 40s there were shipping strikes stock strikes and People you know couldn't get toilet paper for one reason. So they began hoarding it and ever since then it has been a cultural phenomenon Here in Hawaii and maybe it's spread from here to Japan, you know, there's no good reason so There's no good reason, but there you go. Yeah, if you're familiar with the Costco toilet packages They're huge. It's like 30 rolls and some some Women there they had four of those That's enough toilet paper for a year. Yeah, it was just remarkable to observe that our people hoarding other things So they are they bringing food? I think I'll be going to Costco today at least I'm hoping to But when I was there about a week and a half ago was also rice and some food staples But mostly was toilet paper. That was clear. I mean it was incredible Well, it's so the mask here in Honolulu had a had a line last time I knew a few days ago The line was half a mile long. Nobody could get in to the parking lot to go shopping. Yeah Right, I've experienced that once in Hawaii when a hurricane was coming in during one of the summers I was teaching there But yeah, it's it's quite warm. I'm sure it'll be very crowded when I go there today The other thing to Jay. I wanted to talk about is what I'm doing at school a concept guide I as you know, I'm the dean there So, congratulations. It's been a very good way. I'd like to thank you And I understand word has it here in Hawaii that you were also awarded The best teacher of the year award in addition to that. Oh You have very good sources. I don't know how you found that out. That's that's correct. And thank you very much If we do have an entrance ceremony, I'll be standing up there with my plaque and you know It's fun of the thousands of new students. So It's the first time a foreigner has received that award Yeah, so We've we have about 15 or 20 students that have already returned now again I'm the dean of the international exchange program. So we have 300 or we had 300 students who Were visiting Japan from various universities all over the world the majority from the United States So we've had infections in the local city where our school is located There is this edict or order that has come down from the Prime Minister that schools should close I'm looking at the flights being restricted. I'm looking at self-imposed Quarantines for People arriving in America arriving in various countries. So I set up a committee and we decided and we announced yesterday That we are highly recommending that our students return to their home Institutions so back to America back to Europe Back to other parts of Asia and also all of our classes in terms of classroom activity are as ended We're going to continue to teach online because our students need these credits in order to be on a graduation path So we're doing the very best we can to teach Indirectly or online for the remainder of the semester, but this is a huge disruption and It's a great burden. I'm placing on the professors because online education in Japan really doesn't exist It's not as popular as it is in the United States or other locations And of course the students They love everybody loves Japan, right? You know the cherry blossoms are beginning to come out now It's we're going into a really beautiful time here and they they don't want to leave So I'm sure when they get the message today. We'll send the message out to the students this morning They're not going to be they're going to be disappointed as well So it's they go back to their homes. Let's say they go back to the United States Hopefully they won't have any issue getting back. That may not be as easy as it sounds Can they continue to take the classes by remote online? Yes, that's our plan. So I Actually shut down classroom activity as of last week, although the students were all still local We hadn't made the announcement that we wanted them to return home So we began to teach indirectly using zoom or other technology or some professors were Uploading their slides and creating podcasts. It's it's actually been gratifying to see how innovative and creative the professors have been Given this sudden announcement that we're no longer teaching in the classroom, which you know, many of them have been doing for 30 years So for the duration of the semester if at all possible there may be some courses that cannot be continued like maybe there's a studio art course or some kind of Communication class which is very dependent on team activity and presentations those courses may have to be cancelled in which case we'll Give the students a withdrawal and try and provide credit for them is what we're thinking But we're hoping the majority of the courses will be continued to be taught But indirectly so we bought a bunch of zoom licenses Yesterday and we're going to do some training with the professors to try and bring them up to speed on that technology It's not as slick as what we're using right now J but You know, hopefully they'll come up to speed on it quickly and be able to Not do a hundred percent of what they would be able to do in the classroom But do enough so that they feel Confident that they can issue a grade and give credit for the course for the students who are now teaching indirectly or who are now receiving The courses indirectly very good and zoom is a good program for sure though. That was a good So but my question is this so okay So you've you've made a policy and a procedure and you will shortly articulate it to everybody For this semester, that's this semester. I assume this semester ends at the end of May early, June And the end of May. Yes, and and you may have some summer programs or if you don't you'll certainly have another Semester start and we have timber Yeah, we have 19 students registered for a summer program now But weren't many of them are from Hong Kong. So I'm not quite sure if Japan will accept people from Hong Kong at that time You know, there's just so many variables here and the sense is that things aren't going to get worse before they get better That we haven't Japan hasn't hit the peak yet So what's what's the plan? And then yeah, what so what's the plan? I mean you have summer you have the fall you have next spring I mean, there's really nothing on the horizon that says Steve You don't have to worry after August 1st. You know, there's nothing coming down the pipe that says that That is not going to happen so in the communication I said to the partners. This is maybe my Mean overly optimistic. I said we are planning for the fall semester to be normal and we'll conduct classroom activity I'm trying to let them know that that's what our expectation is But you're absolutely right Jay. I have no idea the problem for us and for all the schools This is worldwide now. Not just Kansai guide. I students are making up their mind right now About going abroad the application period is now and given how bad the news is right now We expect our applications are just going to dramatically shrink So it could be that I'll be kind of lonely and maybe I'll have five students in my class as opposed to 33 that I have right now. This is not good for the The finances of the university or any university in Japan and I want to I want to take you want a little, you know vision of Christmas future here for a moment from your point of view as a One who teaches business and entrepreneurial activity This is this is all going to filter out into the community. So you have you know, what we know so far is Schools are closing. We know that oil prices are down We know the stock market is you know in the tank and and not likely to bounce right back up either The question I put to you though is how is this gonna? How is these phenomena going to filter out into other parts of the economy? It's a hard question Where will we see things happen next and and what will be the result? Yeah, Japan was already vulnerable to Economic downturn actually in Q4 the numbers were just revised yesterday the economy shrink 7.1% Wow in Q4 of 2019 and that's mostly because in October The Abe government raised sales tax just 2% but it was had a significant effect on Investment decisions and on consumer buying activities. So coming out of Q4 before all of this Coronavirus issue started the Japan economy was already sliding at a pretty significant rate and It's only going to get worse. So this quarter will definitely be negative growth. It could be You know, I can just off the top of my head. We could have 10 or 12 percent Negative growth which would put Japan technically into a recession So that's what the economists are expecting. So the number three economy in the world will begin to shrink quite significantly The hardest hit industries, of course are tourism the airline industry The Chinese and Koreans make up 50% of our foreign tourists that is now gone right, so Just at a at a personal level when I go around town when I Am on the trains and when I'm going to Kyoto and other it just feels eerily empty It's it's so different from what it was just a few months ago So there's you can see it with your eyes and you can feel it the economic activity is Shrinking significantly Well, but that doesn't have a vacuum either. I mean I'm two two questions pop out of that I wanted to ask you number one is Certainly Japan does not live in a vacuum. It's a number three economy It's going to have an effect globally What's the Christmas future for that and you know, they sort of the interaction between these big economies? How does that play out? The second thing is not the same question, but I still like to know How is it going to affect the the man in the street? How are the women in the street? How is it going to affect jobs? How is it going to affect disposable income? How is it going to affect the acquisition of consumer goods? How is it going to affect the quality of life? And the disparity of income Well, I think to your first question I Definitely this will have a chilling effect on international trade You know, we talked a couple weeks ago to Jay about the virus's effect on actual products You know, I I don't know if we have clarity on that or not, but it may Result in people being a little bit reluctant to buy goods from China or from Korea or now maybe even from Japan for those of World-wide consumers that are looking at Japanese products So I think there's a direct impact that the economies are shrinking consumer activity is going down Japanese people when they face these types of Crises their amount of spending goes down dramatically. They go into savings mode This is just what happens time and time again after we have a major earthquake Consumer activity goes way down It takes about six months to 12 months to go back up to the pre earthquake or pre crisis pre disaster levels So that will have a profound effect. I think on worldwide economic activity. I mean basically Jay I think we're maybe we're heading in the direction anyway towards a worldwide recession, but this may push us Over the edge. I don't know. It may be quite significant at the street level though You can tell people are very concerned. Maybe like 70% of them are wearing masks The trains are not so crowded. Many people are beginning to work at home Even though that's not a part of Japanese business culture companies like people to be in their desks Yeah, they're not very productive, but they like them to be there so that they can be observed That's one of the major measurements of of success is how many hours you spend at your job Now, it's not how productive you are here. It's how many hours you spend, but that's changing a bit some of the companies, you know mirroring Microsoft and others in America are saying work at home or Maybe work on shifts so rather than crowd into the trains all at the same time Which is a normal pattern between 8 and 8 30 the trains are just jammed. So they're staggering entrance times So there's been some adaptation now occurring by businesses and by people To try and minimize the amount of risk, but I don't other than panic buying Like for toilet paper and things like that, which I've observed directly I think people here they're concerned, but they're not overly concerned. There's this a sense of that things you still see people not wearing masks, so There's some people who are not at that level and they're not You know protecting themselves I some people have map have two masks on and have plastic gloves on when they're on the trains I saw that yesterday for the first time, but there's a good percentage of people maybe about 30% that are still carrying on in a normal way I'm sure they are worried or aware of what's going on, but they it's not at the level where they're changing their behavior The Japanese Unlike the Americans do they have money in the bank or are they living paycheck to paycheck? Well Japan since the koi zumi administration have had this separation in income You know we have the the rich getting richer and the middle class slowly descending in you know into the lower levels the The average income for the middle class has actually been trending down But not as significantly as the United States and also Japanese savings rates historically have been much higher So especially the generation that built Japan, you know coming out of World War two The people in their 60s 70s 80s and so forth. They're they're quite well off. This is still a very rich country there's still Billions trillions of dollars in savings in various vehicles in Japan. So That I don't think is a major worry. I don't I've read in America 50% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck I would suspect that that number in Japan is much much lower. Hmm interesting now What about investment? You know if you have You know a sort of the lack of confidence that comes with a Recession people don't you know necessarily you see a bright future and therefore they're less likely I say people I mean also Corporations and capital concentrations as well. They're less likely to invest in the future But for example if X car company would otherwise come out with a brand new exciting Automobile product they may say we want to put the kind of money in right now We can't sell it so quick. So we're going to slow down our investment into the future What you have concern about that? Yeah, that's been a problem before the the virus issue The Japanese corporations because of tax policies which mirror somewhat United States tax policies they have tremendous amounts of money that they're just sitting on and doing nothing I mean There's trillions of dollars out there and they had been reluctant to invest especially in Japan because Japan's in kind of a no growth Zone right now. It really hasn't grown economically over the last almost 30 years now So I think this will just make things worse It'll make companies and people even more hesitant to make those types of investments So that we could begin on this downward cycle. I mean we're somewhat in that cycle now in Japan, but it could accelerate with The COVID-19 health issues that we're facing right now Well, let me give you a hypothetical my hypothetical is okay time in July. Let's take July Somebody comes up, you know with some new technology that can figure out a more effective way to contain the disease quarantine Who knows what maybe peanut butter who knows? and Peanut butter. Oh, why did I have some of my refrigerator?  What have you? Six months, you know, people have below standard confidence and consumer spending goes down How much time will it take for Japan to get to its normal balance? Whatever that is Once we discover a way to stop, you know, the incident of disease Yeah, I Would say if we April May, maybe we hit the peak in Japan if we follow other countries and then hopefully the policies or some kind of vaccine some kind of New discovery occurs and we get to into the summer months and there's a sense that okay We've gotten through the worst of this and we're on a recovery Given the fragility of the Japanese economy. It probably will take a year. So I would say probably Summer of 2021 things would return to normal It would take a while So what's your advice? What's your advice to an American student in Japan? What's your advice to the Japanese citizen a business person? What's your advice to the man on the street anywhere and everywhere and how to deal with this? Yeah Yeah, well for my students as I mentioned, I'm telling them these are the international students. I'm Strongly recommending that they go home You know, although I you know, we have Italian students So, you know, that's why I didn't make it mandatory. It may be safer for some of our students to stay in Japan Yes, Korean students. So that's why we left that open When we had the Tohoku disaster in spring 2011 a lot of foreign business people took off I mean that had nuclear Risk involved as you probably remember So I think many foreigners if this does really increase in terms of the number of Infections we may see people leaving For a short period of time and then some and in that instance didn't come back, you know I'm I'm rooted here. My family is here. There are many foreigners that have been here long-term So, you know, we're gonna have to just grin and bear it and make our way through this I think that's it. I think that's the advice that you would give Stay in place. Keep on doing the reasonable thing. Keep educating yourself following the action and grin and bear it That's I think that's what emerges as a way to deal with this. Don't panic Don't do anything remarkable. Just keep on trucking. Yeah Yeah, yeah, I have my students are asking me, you know, what what kind of investments can I make now? How can we, you know, every crisis is an opportunity certainly? Buying stock and zoom or these types of software products that allow indirect instruction. Yeah, I'm sure they're gonna be doing great My students asked me last week should we buy in the stock market now because we hit bottom and I said, I don't think so So I was right about that What would your answer to that question be today? I'm gonna ask you the same question in in two weeks Steve We're out of time here today, but we have to follow this conversation I'm so curious and empathetic about what's happening in Japan and we want to talk to you again and again about it and find out What's going on because we are in a transitional transformational time these days, I think Thank you so much Steve. Steve Zercher. My pleasure. Kansai Gada University, Aloha


Okay, so today's session has got a very long title. Open networking in action. SDN, NFV and OpenStack and Cloud, all those things. Wow, okay. Bingo. And we have a very illustrious line up of panellists. None of whom I'm sure need introducing, but I'm going to ask them to introduce themselves nevertheless and to say perhaps a bit about their organisation ond arnyntio gydag ymlaen â'r concept ddechrau'r newid yma. Rwy'n ddweud yw Heather? Nid oedd yn ddweud i'r cychwyn. Dwy'n ddweud i'r cychwyn. Rwy'n ddod o o'r cofnifau. Rwy'n ddweud o'r cofnifau, ymlaen o'r cofnifau i'r peir o'r cyfnodau o'r cyfnodau syniadol. O'r cyfnodau syniadol, bit's coming from some of these gentlemen's organisations, and then we do a lot of testing and then feed features and requirements back upstream to support NFE use cases. I'm Jonathan Brice. I'm the executive director at the OpenStack Foundation, and my background is really strictly in cloud. I started the company that became the Rackspace Cloud and then helped to open source some of that technology to get OpenStack started. a bobl ydych chi'n fyddech chi'n ddim o'i gweithio gweld yn siarad cychwynol yn y cyd-dweud.  I guess I'm next. My name is Neela Jacques. I'm the executive director of the Open Daylight Project. If you look back about four years ago, two things sort of seemed true at once. On one hand, I think the entire industry said we need a new way of controlling our networks. On the other hand, everybody had their favorite way. So we had a world in which you had not one SDN solution but 30 of them. And as you can imagine, that doesn't work very well. So I think a number of the industry luminaries said this thought that says, hey, what if we brought all of these folks together? And we could collaborate around a common platform and then everybody can go off and actually build their solutions around that. And the good news is we've gone from a world which was like this down to now just a few solutions out there with Open Daylight being by far the largest open solution out there. The good and bad news about this has been that as we've shown that this model can work, we've actually found an expansion up and down the stack. And so more and more people are creating open source communities and open source projects. And that's certainly great. It means it puts a lot more pressure on all of us here as well as people who aren't here to find ways of increasing collaboration to overcome overlap and other things like that. That's what I'm really trying to focus on more of my time now. And I'm Brian Sullivan. I work for AT&T in the Domain to Architecture and Planning Organization. We're the organization that architects the AT&T integrated cloud and the overall network function virtualization in which we're redeploying all our existing network services over time. And I guess what Open Networking has meant to us and our role in Open Networking has largely revolved around realizing that in order to achieve the agility and time to market and speed and all those things that we needed to evolve beyond what we call Domain 1, the previous thing, right? We had to go open. We had to go open source. And we had to do things in completely new ways. For example, Network on Demand was one of the first things that we did launch in a cloud environment. And that caused us to adopt a lot of new methods and leverage a lot of new tools that disrupted a lot of what we did in the past. But it was a foundational step in the right direction. And now we're expanding that, as Neil said, up the stack in a lot of different ways into the orchestration space as well. Thank you everyone. So I'd like to start. I mean, as we've got up there, we've got SDN, NFV, Open Stack and cloud, all very, very big topics. And I think that for a pretty conservative industry, perhaps for any industry, but telcos have got the reputation of being particularly conservative. Having all these things thrown at them at once is a pretty tall order. AT&T has been, well at least from the outside, it looks like the swan gliding serenely on the domain 2.0 waters. But we'll come to that in a minute. But a number of operators have said to me, you know, these are just so hard. And there are so many moving parts and they're all evolving so quickly. We don't know which ones to choose, the standards aren't there. We're used to standards, you know, and people sort of pontificating over those for two or three years or four years or even five years. This stuff is just too hard. We're not going to be able to embrace it. What's your opinion of that, Brian? Should they just give up and go home or is this something that's really here to stay and they've got to make this leap across a very large chasm? Well, we've been, you know, a tier one operator forever as long as I can remember, right? And so our role in this is different from a lot of other operators, right? I mean, as a member, for example, of the GSM Association, which has hundreds of operator members, right? The things that we do versus the things that other operators can do are quite different somehow, right? But the fact is there's strength in numbers. Even for the tier two and tier three operators or service providers, you have to realize that you have to be engaged because you can only make good choices if you understand. And there's only one way to be truly, you know, have an understanding is to be engaged, right? And then you can, through collaborative integration projects like the open platform NFV, right? You can learn as an end user the things that you need to build a core technical team to make those good choices. Sure. You know, it's a little bit like asking, does an aircraft carrier have to be complicated? And to some extent, yes. Frankly, being able to land aircraft on a moving ship in the middle of the ocean is really difficult and requires tremendous amount of training and specialization among people. And I think there's some element of which to run a tier one telco is really, really hard. And we've got that down to a science now from the last 30 years. Now what we recognize is that the kinds of capabilities that we have today aren't going to be enough for the future. And as we move to the next chapter, we need to reinvent it, but we can't lose a lot of the things that we've achieved over time. So, on one hand, there is tremendous complexity already in the existing system. There is certainly complexity in being able to reinvent many of the different pieces that all must come together. I also think, however, it behooves us to also simplify that inherently in innovation, innovation becomes messy, but you do need to be able to take all that innovation and actually run something that allows all of us to make calls, that allows all of us to have video. And so I think that there's going to be a great learning that's going to continue to happen between the open source communities that are innovating faster than we've ever seen before and the operators that really need to deliver a service and make money on it today, not in 20 years. How many of you have heard of Corba? How many of you still depend on Corba for business critical functions in your company? One. I thought of that because you mentioned about standards and waiting around for standards, and we actually used to do that in a lot more areas of the technology world. But I think what every business is facing now is just this imperative to move more quickly. And even though something like Corba, which was meant to be a standard for communicating between systems for sharing data and application interaction, even that is not completely disappeared, but mostly that we actually have more interconnected systems than we've ever had before, even though we don't have strictly defined standards like that. And I think that the telecom market, what's driving people to do these things, even though it is complicated and painful, is because they're facing that same business imperative to move more quickly and to compete in ways that they didn't necessarily have to 15 or 20 years ago. So it is a little bit messier in terms of, like Mark Collier said yesterday, how the chorizo is made. But the end result is as you go through the transformation to be able to work in that environment, it actually does greatly increase your ability to move more quickly and to adapt and to roll out features. And I think we're kind of in this transitional phase, which is very hard, and which is going to require change from both operators but also from organisations like OpenStack and Open Daylight and just Open Source in general to figure out where the common ground is to make that happen. I think the business imperative is there, so it's hard, but if you take your toys and go home, if you're in business, you're not going to be in a very good business for very long. But I also kind of think about it a little bit differently, which is it's hard, but it's the first time in a long time that the telecom industry has been really interesting and fun too. You can look at change as hard or you can look at it as inspiring. There's so much more innovation that we're seeing right now than we've seen in this space in a long time. And I think the enablement of that innovation and seeing excitement there, we had at our Opina Fibus yesterday, we had people coming up saying that they wanted to be our interns. When I'm thinking college kids, college kids are not dreaming of going to work in the telecom space for the past 20-some odd years. I do the interns who are coming to approach us at our boosting. What you're doing is really interesting and you are the person I would like to intern with. To me is just fresh and new and very exciting, so that's kind of the way I think about it. That's great. And keeping with the business drivers there in the future, there's a lot of hype around at the moment about say 5G, for example, internet things. Are these things in your opinion, Brian, that can be done without virtualisation? Or is virtualisation a precondition for moving to that future vision? Things evolve and we're in the first generation of virtualising what we have. We're learning that it's hard. There's a lot of embedded business around how things have been done for the past 20 years, and that's not going to change overnight. But I've got to get this right because it was extremely important to what Chris Rice said at Open Daylight Summit. I'm going to associate it to an analogy that you know, pets and cattle. We have to move from pets and what Chris called snowflakes. Very special, very focused, one of a kind things that we're living with today to a cattle environment, basically, or legos, where there's nothing special. You can get rid of them. We have to get there because in the long run, the economics of doing all this are not going to work unless we can really break things down and evolve. I think it's an essential thing, whether it's VMs, containers, micro kernels or whatever. That's just technology, but clearly we have to get things more broken down and much faster and agile. I think those are key things that we're going to have to get to. Anybody else want to comment on that? Sure. An example I often use is the last big, great example of the old style service and that unique snowflake thing was IPTV. That was, I want to say, a six-year standards process. We designed this beautiful, perfect network that really was going to enable IPTV. It was great and they had to roll out a new network. People were digging up streets to lay down new things and new equipment. By the time, you first got rolled out, how was everybody getting most of their content streaming? Unicast streaming via Netflix. This beautiful IP-based broadcast television system that we had designed and implemented and rolled out. Fortunately, it's a good internet system that we can roll out services over, but it didn't work. To the point of, we can't regard our services in that way. They can't require these special networks, every single service that we roll. We need a dynamic network. An artist in service. Exactly. The hipsters in Brooklyn will really like it. It de-risks the service availability. Part of the reason service providers move to slowly with services is if you've got to dig up streets and roll a new network for them, you have to have a pretty good ironclad ROI. Whereas if you can just start rolling out new software on a cloud infrastructure, you can start playing. You can de-risk your portfolio and your services economics. Just to add to that, I think that we've shifted in terms of the determinant of winners and losers in our society. It used to be that the guy who figured out first that the automobile was going to be a big thing, ended up being more successful than everyone else. We've moved into a model where now people know what's coming. Microsoft knew that the smartphone was coming. They just weren't able to capitalize on it. The AT&T knew that people were going to stream movies. It turns out that Netflix was able to execute. If it's not knowing what is coming, what is it that determines success, it becomes execution. From an execution standpoint, infrastructure inherently underlays your ability to execute well. If we look at why so many people here at the OpenStack Summit is a cloud, whether it's an internal cloud, a private cloud, a public cloud, infrastructure is inherently needed so that someone who sees, hey, I think the world is going in this direction can very quickly try things out, fail quickly and move beyond it. That's certainly true on the network side and I think on the telcos. They're very fortunate, I think, to have the ability to have a deep connection with all of us and with all of their customers. They have an ability to roll out and win all of these new markets. The question is, do they have the execution ability? A lot of that comes down to the agility of their underlying infrastructure and to answer your question, yes, I think virtualisation is critical. I think it's necessary but not sufficient. So let's move on and then talk about how this transition can happen and why it should really be open source led as it is at the moment. Jonathan, do you have some opinions as to why Telcos should be involved in open source or looking to open source? Earlier, I kind of talked down about standards a little bit, I guess. It's not because I'm against just standards per se or the concept of people coming together to define what things look like. I'm actually completely pro that and we're throwing a giant event here in Barcelona that's oriented 100% around that concept. I think that open source is actually the evolution of how we work together. It's not through standards bodies that then deliver a spec that goes and gets implemented independently by different people. I think that process is kind of all collapsed into something where the definition of what we need to have and what it looks like, how it gets built is kind of all done together collaboratively in the open. To me, that's actually proving out to be the best model for technology development. Now it's different, it's very different and I hear it all the time not just from telecom operators but from other users who are very attracted to certain components of that but they are confused or put off by other pieces of it. I think that if you look at the time to execution, as Nilo was saying, which was a really good point you were making, by focusing on open source and implementation from the beginning, you actually can fail faster and adjust and get to the working iteration more quickly than if you just go through the process of years or decades of product rollout. To me, open source is a really critical component for anything that is meant to be a massively deployed, a diversely deployed technology solution now. Okay, but have they shouldn't telcos lead this to their vendors? After all, that's what they've done for many years. You're setting me up for one of my favorite quotations from Machiavelli the Prince, which is, a prince who depends on a contract army can never be secure. It's one of my favorite lines. I think that really the dynamics of the telecom industry had gotten that way, that the operators were dependent on their vendors for their R&D, which created a very weird dynamic because in a certain way we're not sure if we trust you doing our R&D, so we're going to yell at you a lot, but we're still depending on you to do our R&D. I used to work for a vendor in the telecom space, but I think the operators getting their hands dirty, and by the way Brian is a shining example of this, and really being able to do some of their own development work, not that they're still not going to buy things from vendors, but they understand the sausage making better, they understand the strengths and limitations, they understand the technology being used better, and I think it actually changes the dynamic of some of the relationships in a positive way. I think it also enables the operators to choose pieces that they might want to develop on their own, you know let's say AT&T with ECOM, it allows them to make decisions about what they are going to buy versus what they're going to build versus what they might build collaboratively, and I think it makes the entire process of designing, implementing and operating their networks, I think it makes it better for them, is my view. OK, so Brian we'd like to hear from you as the operator member of the panel, not just about what is the value of contributing, it's not just consuming but it's actually contributing, but also your own views, obviously you're talking about making ECOM open source, so if you could take us through some of the thinking behind that as well, that would be very interesting. Well the value of contributing again to come back to the point is that you have to be educated, and unless you contribute, you won't be educated, you learn by doing. There are many forms of contribution as well, I mean you don't have to be necessarily a code contributor, you can be a user, you can provide feedback, you can participate in testing, you can be part of a community that supports end user communities, etc. Test labs, test labs, various test labs. Test labs, you can provide resources like many people do in opnf and the OSIC does to the community. The role though of everybody in the ecosystem is changing, and the relationship between operators and vendors is changing as well, we're becoming much more partners, collaborators, right? We don't want to necessarily make everything, and even if we do make very substantial things like ECOM, we probably want to partner with people long term in maintaining them, developing and taking them further, and there are many different solutions to these sorts of needs, the overall orchestration umbrella for example, and we don't want to necessarily maintain a point solution, it should be to come back to Chris Rice's point, it should be basically Legos that we use to solve the problem of overall orchestration, etc. In order to do that we have to collaborate, we're going to have partners, we're going to have vendor partners, etc. We're going to have community partners as well. The dynamic is changing for sure, but I think it's a positive change, and if I was in a vendor community I wouldn't really worry that much, because there are many ways to form value as a vendor, and selling a product, for example differentiating on a product is only one way. Nina, we were talking the other day and you were giving me lots of really good examples of what operators are actually doing with Open Daylight. Can you perhaps tell the audience with some of the ways that they're participating and what they're doing, operators? Absolutely, and before I go into writing to the example, I want to say one quick thing which is the big difference in your question about open source versus just going with a vendor is the developer user intimacy that we get in a community like this, you cannot get in a vendor relationship. It's a little bit like trying to collaborate with somebody by sending letters back and forth to Timbuktu. There's just an inherent latency that you get when you have to go through product managers as well as going through technical user advisory groups that exist within corporations. While here, and we've seen this very much with AT&T as an example, that's where I'm going to start with my example, we actually get people who say, hey, I have a need, can you make this better? Are you going to do this? No, I'm going to start it. For example, if we look at AT&T, AT&T is a great example of participation in Open Daylight. On one side, you've got something like ECOMP. AT&T takes Open Daylight, puts it at the heart of their next generation infrastructure delivery platform, puts it in production two years ago while the project itself is still evolving and giving us feedback the entire time. At the same time, you're actually getting little point contributions and participation, not just feedback on the overall, but a, hey, what we need is a yang model authoring tool. Wait, you don't have one? No one's creating it? You know what? I'm going to find a developer within AT&T. I'm going to write that piece of functionality. I'm going to offer it into the community and let Unilla go find other people to join me and help me to do it. And so what we've seen is engagement from AT&T like Chris Rice, who's very, very senior, down to individual developers who I may never know about but are active in the community asking questions. That's a great example of someone doing something like this. We saw the same thing Katie in Korea. One day was talking to me and said, you know, Open Daylight seems a lot weaker than that other project in transport. Why aren't you doing more in transport? You get a little bit defensive and you say, well, you know, the community invested in what it wants to. And you give sort of your stock answer as an ED. Hey, if it's really important to you, why don't you come and contribute and participate? I'll help you to do that. And they go away and you know that nine out of ten times that you never hear about it ever again. In Katie's case, they found a group of developers. They went ahead. They built out the functionality that they wanted for themselves. They deployed and they're in production now using Open Daylight to shorten the time from bid to deployment of their customers. But at the same time, they also proposed a new project in transport and it's in the latest release of Open Daylight. So what you get in Open Source is that ability to not only consume, but also give feedback and also produce. People think when you say developer user, you mean vendor customer. No, you've got developers at both. And you've got users at both, really. Well, thank you. Now, I'd like to get a little bit more specific here. I mean, a lot of people that I speak to when they're talking about Open Source, there's an excuse which may not be entirely true, but it's a little bit valid and nevertheless, which is that, well, can we really run telecoms networks on Open Source software in its current state? And of course, they always point to OpenStack as the example. And I've seen OpenStack make tremendous strides in supporting NFV since I first started looking at it, which I think was round about the Icehouse release. And of course, since then, we've had MacArthur and now Newton, which are really sort of pushing on in very many ways. Still, speaking to a big tier one European operator last week who said, well, OpenStack will never be done. And the kind of subtext was we're not sure ever when we're really going to deploy it. So, Jonathan, what still needs to be done, do you think? What boxes still need to be ticked to make operators really overcome this excuse? It's a really good question. I mean, the statement that OpenStack will never be done is true. But that's actually a good thing. Linux kernel's not done yet either, and yet somehow people managed to use it. And I think that it gets to kind of that cultural difference of we do releases and those end up in downstream products from vendors, which is a really good thing for consumption. But some of that is again that mindset change that needs to happen. At the same time, in terms of specific things, there are differences in some of these telecom workloads definitely from sort of cloud-ready workloads, which is where OpenStack started, enterprise workloads, which is kind of the next step in terms of OpenStack's development iteration and running data networks and voice networks. I think that similar to those other workloads, it's not about when OpenStack is going to be ready to be used in telcos. It's really when is a telecom going to be comfortable using OpenStack for the things that it is ready for. It's not an all or nothing thing. This is a shift like they've been talking about where all of the R&D and all of the packaging doesn't just happen with vendors anymore. What that means is that users of open source software in general, not just OpenStack, they need to be informed and educated enough to know, okay, I can run this workload on this set of tools now. What we see is a growing number of those things that different operators are running. AT&T initially started out with more of that enterprise-type workload in terms of some of their first developments that they were doing with OpenStack, and Deutsche Telecom, similar thing, but they've moved into network workloads now. DT runs a variety of different workloads through different European countries that include some voice, also some security services, things like that. I think that there's never going to be a blanket answer for everyone. You have to invest into... It doesn't have to be code contribution. There are a lot of different ways, but you do have to invest in these communities if you want to use them and get the most value out of it. The minimum level of investment is getting informed and understanding how different technologies align with your needs and your current state. Heather, you're in the forefront of testing a lot of this stuff for telcos. What do you see that could be addressed in terms of making people feel more comfortable? Part of it, as Jonathan was saying, is certainly cultural. From the perspective of... especially that never going to be done, of course not, the world is never done. The Linux kernel celebrates its 25th anniversary and it changes constantly. They release every week. The fact that things are constantly changing means that new requirements are coming in and you're adapting to evolve to them. I think that it is that transition from a, now I have a box that is good enough for me to put here to I have software that's going to continually evolve as my business evolves and as the world evolves around me. I think that is a big cultural shift. In terms of, I think, in our Colorado time frame for OPNFE, I think we really started seeing some maturity around some of the requirements for beginning to run more telcom workloads, some of the fault management capabilities that we saw in the demo yesterday, coming from groups like Open Daylight, some of the Layer 2, Layer 3 VPN capabilities and SFC functionality. This was the first release where we were able to, we had some basic IPv6 support last time but this is the first time you're beginning to see multiple projects in the stack, really properly support IPv6, which is a necessity for operators. A lot of those baseline functions, for us this time in our release, it was a lot of incremental functions necessary to run applications and we saw these definite strides in them. I mean, probably at the end of the day, Brian's a better arbiter of this, how red we are question, but I think we're certainly getting to the place where, to Brian's point, you can certainly start running certain workloads and stuff is, in the just over 18 months I've been in OPNFE, things are quite impressively radically improved in a fairly short time frame. Well, I'm going to let Brian be the arbiter. How they're doing? Well, they're doing fantastic. I think it's, you know, we went from one scenario that in the first release that I think a week after it was released, probably was hard to get running again. To several scenarios in the next release and to like 37 in the third release. This is different combinations of components, which show the flexibility and the openness of the overall project.  But as far as Opistack and its readiness and reluctance, et cetera, to deploy it and all that sort of stuff, it's fundamental. We started out with enterprise workloads, et cetera, but it also runs mission critical, mission critical applications as part of our NFV program. It needs some particular focus, right? And we know it's not done yet for these things. It needs massive scale. It needs not just Opistack, but overall the NFV environment needs really, really good performance to make up for the virtualization penalty. It needs also to be able to scale down really low. For putting clouds inside central offices and it's small cell sites and things like that. Security of it needs to be much stronger because it's going to run our network and it can't be hackable at all. There's a number of things like that. But we'll get there. It's just a matter of recognizing what it needs and communicating as a group like we have this large contributing Opistack operator group that we formed with others. That's giving us another way to get the voice out there into Opistack as to what we really need coming up with it. So if I can jump in, I want to give a little bit of a provocative answer to this. I think the question in a sense is the wrong question. The assumption, if you're asking, is Opistack ready for telcos, positions Opistack as a product. You could ask the same question about Open Daylight. You could ask the same question about any open source. I would argue that when we start to think about open source platforms as products per se, we're shooting ourselves in the foot. Was Open Daylight ready for production two or three years ago? No, but yet it was at AT&T. The truth is we come together to build a platform and that platform is leveraged to build a solution. In some cases, the open source is so advanced that you don't need very much to build a solution. In other cases, you may need to build half the solution yourself. In some cases, the end user is going to pick up the open source bits and build a solution for itself. In some cases, they're going to do that but pay somebody else to do a piece of it or they're going to go to a vendor and buy a solution that's been built on that. But inherently it is the wrong question to ask and to evaluate an open source project as a fully formed solution. To go further than that, if the majority of end users looked at open source projects as full and complete solutions and therefore, hey, this is a really cheap way of solving my problem, you'd completely destroy the business case for the vast majority of the people who currently play the developers to continue to fund the development of those open source projects. Developers aren't free. Other people who work in support aren't free either. And if we lived in a world in which users would pay for 100% of all the development on the open source product, maybe we could have a world in which you basically just look at the open source project as being the primary source of where you are. In the current world where we are, we really need to remember that what we're building is common technology elements and platforms and toolkits that people then are going to leverage to build solutions for themselves. And there has to be money there to be able to fund that development. Well said, neither. OK, so I just want to finish with a question around the overlap between a lot of open source initiatives. This kind of land grab for adjacent areas, which is perfectly, that people identify things, people identify the same things at the same time, but then it's a question of how do you govern that in an essentially ungovernable process where you don't want to kill that innovation. It's particularly striking, I think, with the whole idea of the NFV mano, that very nebulous orchestration layer that sits above OpenStack, but just would like the panel's thoughts starting with Heather as to how can we control this? Because people, operators are concerned about where they should put their efforts and which one's going to win. Maybe it's a legacy of the old standards thinking, but nevertheless, how do we address this problem? So I kind of got two answers. One is which, yeah, so put your efforts in the community that you think you are going to be successful in. You don't necessarily have to play in all of them. Where do you think you will be getting value for yourself and what aligns with your strategy and business model? There are a lot of different groups out there, many of them are parts of an ever-growing stack, and some because they are taking different approaches to some similar piece of the stack like mano or SDN controller or something like that, which I think is fine because we're in early days of NFV in a lot of ways. And so the fact that people have multiple competing ideas about how certain things like, you know, the future of, you know, OSS BSS, which in some ways informs your opinion of what mano looks like. Of course there are different ideas and I think that that innovation is a good thing. So it's not so much that it needs to be controlled.  You know, if you care about a particular technology are you willing to put time, effort, energy into getting it integrated into a scenario and then when, you know, we run all of our tests against it are you willing to take those bug reports and feed them back in and improve the software based on what our testing has found. So part of what we are part of what we're doing is we're not picking winners but we are sort of enabling that voting with your feet, enabling the sort of seeing how well things do integrate, seeing how well things test and testing with all of them to sort of give them kind of give multiple upstream community sort of a level playing field to sort of show how their meeting needs and being reactive as a community or not and, you know, eventually some things will die and that's fine too. Yeah. So I think that I just want to echo what you said about you didn't say pick the tool or the technology you said pick the community that you think, you know, and did do it on purpose. You know, when OpenStack started there were other OpenSource Cloud platforms that had a technical head start in different areas but none of them had a focus on growing a healthy community and at this point OpenStack has eclipsed them and I think that with OpenSource the community is the driver for access or failure of the OpenSource project over the long term. It might be able to last for a year or two or three in a model that's driven by a single vendor or by a closed team but the only way that an OpenSource project survives and thrives for 25 years like Linux is by being very community driven. To me that's the thing to look for above all else if you're looking across, you know, different OpenSource solutions. The other point that I would say is don't fear the kind of variety in some of these areas because this is so early on and as you go higher up stacks too you're going to have more variation because there are more differences between development languages than there are between operating systems. There are more differences between different kinds of workloads that are going to run on top of those and so I think it's actually fine to have variation and variety over time the market will sort of give people their niche or they will die and go away and it will get settled but what it shows is just how new it is and how much experimentation there is left to do. I was going to say the enemy of successful OpenSource is the desire for control. We see this everywhere when an individual comes in with a great idea that creates the spark that lights the innovation but that innovation will die if they're not able to get other people to work with, to contribute to leverage that code. That is certainly true within an OpenSource project and that's true between OpenSource project and I think you know this is a tough challenge that we all have up here is how do you on one hand allow people to come in and they have something that they want to do and they've got to feel safe that they can come in and this is a good garden for their plant to grow. On the other hand if what you simply do is allow every single person to go in and collaborate with themselves and then collaborate via stapler with a release you're going to fail and we see this every time when people do end up in their own island a lot of my time explaining to people hey I'm not seeing a whole set of people coming to you don't think that just because you made a release vehicle that you've achieved your goals. You achieve your goals when other people join and contribute. You meet your goals when other people take your code and integrate in what they have. You meet your goals when a vendor puts it in their product or an end user actually deploys it to solve a problem and that's actually a lot harder and it requires people who are willing to let go of some control it requires the facilitation of community and I think we spent a lot of time trying to do that. It's hard enough within a project it's even harder between projects and we see situations in which of course each of us is really excited about our own community and our own way of things and we can all, we're all human too we can all fall into that trap and so continuing to invest in saying where does it make sense where should we collaborate if we don't do that we will fail and people will go back to the ultimate non-collaborative model which is proprietary software. So Brian you're the one who's having to place bets what do you think? Well I think it's a natural thing as Heather said this is a nascent change in the market and it's really not a problem that you have multiple you know because of ambition or whatever you want to call it right because it's natural I mean we have a globe right because of culture, because of geography because of ambition because of people following their own goals right and developing things internally and seeing it grow up and saying I want to put this out there we have these multiple projects in the same space coming up and as long as there's enough bandwidth inside the overall market to support them it's really not a problem especially as we had this right after ONS last time we had this meetup of the sort of mano thing but it was about cross SDO information modeling and then there was orchestration right and we got together after ONS across all these projects we said look we've got to reuse as much as possible out of the stuff the fundamental components of what we're doing here so that we don't have to reinvent ten times right as long as these communities get together and they do try to to find out the opportunities for convergence and collaboration we're going to win right and so when we go open with the ECOMP I'm sure the same thing is going to happen at some point it's going to be a give and take and we're going to have things coming in and going out and it's just a natural thing that the market has to work through and in the end if there's four or five different solutions large solutions to the same problem if that serves the market then it's okay I'd just like to say thank you very much to all my panellists Heather, Jonathan, Neda and Brian, thank you Thank you Caroline


Hey there, Psych2goers! Today we're going to try something new. It's time for a trivia quiz. Woohoo! According to a study by Queen's University, how many thoughts does the average person have per day? Comment your answers below.  Well, we're going to reveal the answer at the end of this video, so stay tuned. Now back to the video. We have a lot of thoughts per day, but we know that not all thoughts are equal. Some are useful and healthy, while others are harsh and unhealthy. Even worse, when we overthink unhealthy thoughts, we're at risk of mental conditions like depression. But how can we tell if our thoughts are putting us at risk? Here are five signs overthinking is giving you depression. 1. You worry about problems instead of looking for solutions. Are you bothered by a current problem, something that happened in the past or expectations in the future? It's natural to think about situations that affect us, but we should focus our attention on finding a solution. If you're repeatedly dwelling on bad outcomes, emotional stress, or how things are out of control, this is unhealthy rumination. Studies show that people with depression claim to be reflecting on problems to get a better understanding of them. But when they say their thoughts out loud, they are clearly ruminating on the same negative emotions over and over without any real goal. So the next time you think about a problem, ask yourself, is this productive worry or is this just worrying for the sake of worrying? 2. You brood on your mood when you're in a bad mood. How do you cope? Healthy ways include spending time with others, distracting yourself with a hobby, or understanding the cause so you can prevent it in the future. But it's unhealthy to brood on your bad mood and its consequences like wondering whether it will look bad to others, whether you'll get anything done today or how long the negative emotions might last. Belling on negative feelings can cause them to spiral out of control and put you at risk of depression. So the next time you're in a bad mood, try not to trap yourself in the same emotional state by dwelling on it. 3. You dwell on your personal shortcomings. If I asked you to picture your ideal self, how similar would it be to your present self? Was the comparison inspiring you to try harder or was it discouraging and negative? Self-awareness is a very useful skill as it helps us reflect on our actions and improve ourselves. But dwelling only on your shortcomings can lead to excessive self-criticism and a negative sense of self. Research shows that when we become aware of goals we've failed, standards we don't reach, and mistakes we've made, we experience anxiety and a need to escape. If we keep thinking about these things, the feelings can develop into depression and the need to escape can develop into thoughts of self-harm or even suicide. So the next time you become aware of your shortcomings, try to think about your strengths as well. 4. You think the future is hopeless. Do you have hope for the future? As mentioned, thinking about problems or personal shortcomings is healthy when it's directed towards improvement, but people with depression usually feel that there is no hope for the future and improvement is impossible. They dwell on the idea that their situation is fixed. Everything is out of their control and they'll be flawed forever. Needless to say, thinking that nothing will ever get better will only make you fail more, making the problem worse. So the next time you're faced with problems, find reasons to hope for a good outcome or redirect your attention to other problems where you can make a difference. 5. You engage in meta-rumination. Now that we've talked about how negative thinking can give you depression, let's go up another level. How often do you dwell on your own negative thinking? Research shows that people with depression not only engage in unhealthy rumination, they also engage in meta-rumination, which means they ruminate on their negative rumination. Every time they catch themselves thinking in negative or unhealthy ways, they judge themselves for overthinking, worry about their own thinking patterns and feel like their minds are doomed to be like that forever. On top of the original negative thoughts, these extra ruminations add to the problem and further the depression. So the next time you notice you're thinking in negative ways, try to deal with it without judging yourself too harshly for it. Okay, so remember the trivia quiz earlier? We're going to reveal the answer now. The correct answer is B. According to a study by Queen's University, the average person has 6,200 thoughts per day. Which answer did you pick? Can you relate to any of the thoughts mentioned? Let us know in the comments below. And don't forget to like and share this video if you think it'll help someone else. The studies and references used are added in the description below. Until next time and thanks for watching.


What's up guys Michael here with jaspies and we will be doing a 2019-20 upper deck clear cut one box break This is a filler for four random number of block spots in the cup two box break, so let's take The names here We will be giving away four or eight eight early bird spots. So we got the names in here Let's roll the dice a one and a six that is seven times. Let's do it one two three four five six and seven So it's gonna be the top eight here Thank you to everyone for getting in we got Jason Rob Rob Chris Jason Matthew and Raymond getting those free early bird spots here Catch you guys In here, it's just Symbols so I know it's now we're gonna take the names again and Put them into a new list That's not it a new list at the names take teams here oh Uh There's no cracking in here, right? Right. Okay So I guess I'll just take them out and then just delete them from the list See all right. Yeah, I'll take the cracking out of there All right So again, we got all the names in here The little hat means you got it that early bird spot Got the teams. Let's roll the dice again a Six and a five that's 11 times. Let's do it one two three four five six seven eight nine ten and eleven Eleven times there. We got Matthew Down to Jason pop you guys into the list here and Then we got 11 more times for the teams here. So let's go one two three four five six seven eight nine Ten and last one eleven here eleven we've got the Knights Up to the Kings so we get That in there bigger All right, so we got Matthew with the Kings Jason with the Islanders drew with the Oilers Rob with the Canucks Jason with the Capitals Mike with the Sabres Kevin with the Predators Matthew with the Blues Rob with the Flames and the Avalanche Jason with the Rangers Brian with the Flyers Rob with the Blackhawks Chris with the Ducks Craig with the Jets We've got Mike with the Penguins Chris with the Sharks Rob with the Leafs and the Senators Martin with the Hurricanes Raymond with the Stars and the Devils Rob with the Canadians Matt with the Lightning and Panthers Jason with the Blue Jackets Rob with the Coyotes Matthew with the Wild and Bruins drew with the Wings Red Wings Jason with the Knights Golden Knights. All right, so we get this alphabetized. I forgot to do this last time. I will not forget again nice here and Let's print and rip Title in there printers a little bit slow. Oh wow the printers out of paper. All right I'm gonna pause the video real quick and Be right back in a second All right, we're back got the list here, we'll switch it to the camera One more time. Here's the list Again that little hat. It's the early bird spot there So let's do it full disclosure. I know pretty much nothing about Hockey I know I know that I know about hockey. I don't know much about the players But it says one premium card inside. I guess we'll just go for it No, can't just go for it. Yeah. I don't think I need to do that. Actually. Oh, there we go John John Leclerke Is out of 25 auto. Let's see that is The flyers I believe right The flyers that's Brian. Okay. Oh, yeah, it says right there on this Oh I said it was for the wrong person Yep, so we got that and Now let's give away the four random number block spots So switch it back here Get my keyboard back names new list Got the names Roll the dice one last time Three and a three that's six times and just to remind everybody for Random random number block spots in the cup break. So we got six times. Let's do it one two three four five and six That was quick. All right. Thank you to everybody Sorry if you weren't able to get a spot and especially sorry to Raymond Let's see who's in Rob Rob with two spots Rob with three spots and Martin with a spot and That's one of Rob's early bird spots. So congrats to Rob on that congrats to Martin Let's get you guys in here. All right and Yeah, that's it. So the next video we're gonna we got to give away one random number block spot to the people We've got the main spots in that but next up. We'll do the cup. Thanks guys