Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to 31 Bly Street for this event. I'm Michael Fully Love, the Executive Director of the Institute. Before I go any further, let me acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which the Institute stands, the Gadigal of the Eora Nation, and I pay my respects to their elders past and present. Ladies and gentlemen, today you're in for a treat. We have two international superstars, Corey Sharkey and Samir Saran. Both Corey and Samir came out as guests of the Institute this week to speak in Canberra at a conference on grey-zone challenges to the rules-based order. But I always try to nab these superstars and make sure that they come to Sydney so that you guys also get some exposure to them. And I thought today we would have a broader conversation, not just about the rules-based order, although I'm sure we'll touch on that, but also to ask them about the politics of their own country and the international moment in which we find ourselves. Corey Sharkey's career has alternated between government service think tanks and universities, including IWS, which hosted the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last year. She is an internationalist Republican at a time when the GOP is the party of strong military, strong alliances, is increasingly Trump-ified. We might get onto that later. Corey now leads the Defence and Foreign Policy Program at the American Enterprise Institute where she leads a small band of rebels in defence of traditional Republican values. Samir Saran is another energiser bunny. I don't know if that metaphor works in America and India, but both Corey and Samir are intimidatingly energetic and entrepreneurial. It's not enough that Samir is president of the Observer Research Foundation, the leading think tank in India and an old partner of the Lowy Institute. He originated and continues to run the Ryzena Dialogue in Delhi, which many of you have heard of. He used to run a company in Silicon Valley and he's the founder of sci-fi, India's annual conference on cybersecurity and internet governance. So in sum, we have two brilliant observers of the world, one from the world's largest democracy and one from the world's oldest democracy. So please join me in welcoming Corey Sharkey and Samir Saran. Let me also say it's a big day for me. It's a red-letter day for me because today I was blacklisted by the Putin regime. So thank you very much. Thank you. I take that as a high compliment and I just want to say hello to our friends in the Kremlin and various troll factories at the moment who may be listening in on this conversation and thank you very much for that. All right, let's start off, but this is about you guys, it's not about me. So let me start off with you guys. I want to ask about your own countries, but first I want to ask about Australia. You've both dropped in to Australia, parachuted in about a month after an election that produced a change in government. The new Australian government is off to a very quick start, straight to the Quad meeting in Tokyo. The new foreign minister has been around the region a lot. It was just announced today that the Prime Minister would be going to the NATO summit, I think, in a week's time. So lots of international activity. What have been your observations? Corey, I'll start with you. I think you were last in Australia about three years ago during the fires. So I'm glad we've produced nicer weather for you today. Yeah, that's a beautiful blue sky for me. Thank you. But welcome to Sydney, and tell me what are your observations over the last couple of days? Let's see, a couple. The defence minister of the new government made a very strong early showing in Singapore and other places and holding his own in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart. It looks to me like Australia is increasingly a front-line state in thinking about and managing malign behaviour by China. And it's incredibly impressive how stalwart Australians are about the challenge they are facing and what they are asking of themselves in order to manage it. That's my strongest impression. It helps when resources, prices are so high, it helps to be stalwart in those circumstances, but thank you for what you said. Sameer, what about you? I think this is your second visit to Australia with you last eight or nine years ago. Have you seen any changes? What have you observed? So the last time I was here, the relationship between India and Australia was very different. I think we were just coming out of the episode around some students being beaten up in Australia. There was a big hula-baloo in India. We were fighting fires on both sides in terms of keeping a communication line open. I think that's where we were a decade ago. And today here we are, and I can safely say that if you were to ask an Indian thinker, an Indian strategic planner, who are your top five or six partners in the world today, Australia would figure in that. So here we are, you know, in less than a decade, we have moved from being countries who could not stand each other, even on the cricket field, to countries who are now looking at working shoulder to shoulder, facing the challenges in Asia and putting together new frameworks and partnerships for the future. But I think there is also a few questions that this moment poses when you come to Australia. What is this new government going to do on a few big questions? The China policy, right? And of course it helps that the first meeting you had was with the new Prime Minister had, was with this Quad counterparts. In some sense, the Quad meeting sets an early tone to the agenda of the government, hopefully.  How are you going to manage them? Now, you've tried to tell the world that we'll be managing this neighborhood by ourselves. And now you have trouble in paradise. You have the Chinese there. And how will you leverage your other partnerships to manage this region? And the second question, how do you manage your own particular neighborhood with others? And the third and the most obvious question is that what does this do to some of the big political decisions that the previous administration had taken, the partnership with India? Do we follow the same trajectory? Or are we going to have a progressive element in the labor government that is going to focus more on poking each other in the eyes rather than working together? And I think that's the big question. But also on the trade deal, also on your relationship with some other countries in the neighborhood, including the ASEAN countries, which I think are going to be crucial for the Australian future.  It's again facing turbulence in terms of different actors playing there. And I think Australia has interesting days ahead. And we hope India and Australia walk together in those days. All right. So let's move on to your countries. Let's start with the United States, Corey. The world is always interested in your politics. I often think to myself that most countries in the world, the citizens of those countries have two sets of national politics.  And they have a side in American politics. And that's usually, I think, a great source of strength for the United States, that the world is so interested in you and so focused on you. But of course, when the activities in the United States have been, you know, when what we're focusing on, I guess, is things like the hearings into the January 6th committee, it can be a source of weakness and vulnerability as well. So there are no things like the January 6th committee because there is no precedent to a sitting American president organizing violence to prevent the peaceful transition of power in my country. And so to the extent you are interested in American politics, I encourage you to watch the January 6th hearings. They're making a very strong, very careful, very strong case against the president and those who assisted him to try and overthrow democracy in America. Where will that end up? Well, as Thomas Jefferson said, the only safe repository for power is the people themselves. And so it's too soon to tell how my mom and my fellow Americans are reacting to this. But we will probably have a pretty good approximation in the midterm elections in the fall. And also in whether President Trump continues to have strong purchase on Republican candidates. Well, on that subject, I said at the beginning that the GOP had become increasingly Trump-ified. Is that fair, do you think? Can you give us a view from within as a strong Republican in Washington, D.C.? Yeah, I do think it's fair. It's genuinely shocking the number of my fellow Republicans who are excusing a coup attempt in my country. But I also see signs that the fever is breaking. The election of Governor Junkin in Virginia, who had nothing to do with President Trump and focused on education and local issues. And that was a winning strategy in a democratic state. And you see lots of Republicans beginning to experiment with trying to put Trumpism behind us. On the other hand, you also see President Trump endorsing candidates, some of whom are winning races, and the president strongly and vituperatively trying to keep the 2020 election in everybody's focus while Republican candidates are trying to put it out of the picture. Let me ask you about the Democratic Party. I think you endorsed Joe Biden for president in 2020. I did. And I think you endorsed Hillary Clinton for president in 2016 as well. Why are the polls so savage for President Biden? Because as an outsider, I would say he's doing a pretty good job. They're fighting a pretty good war in Ukraine. We'll come to Ukraine later. They've restored some stability and decency to the Oval Office. They're getting on with things. Sure, inflation is high, but inflation is high in Australia and Britain and around the world. Why does he seem to be getting so little purchase with the American people, do you think? So I think there are a couple of reasons. The first is we're in a surly mood. We've been in captivity for two years. And the baseline of anxiety during a pandemic has been incredibly high. A million Americans are dead from COVID. And so I think that's one thing.  The second thing is the abandonment of Afghanistan and the way it was carried out by the Biden administration did an enormous amount of damage to the public perception of the president and his team as being calm, competent. One of the reasons President Biden was elected was because we were weary of the melodrama and incapacity of the Trump administration. And you saw President Biden's support in polls drop precipitously after the Afghanistan debacle and they haven't recovered. Even with, I grant you, the better performance of the president's team on Ukraine. And I think the third reason is that the president doesn't actually understand much about economics. If you look at why people are voting Republican, in particular Hispanics and black Americans are voting Republican. It's because they care about the small business environment. They're worried about taxes. They care about kids' education. And those are not, those are issues that at this political moment are playing advantageously for Republicans. All right. Last question for you, and then I'm going to come to Serea, to Sameer, I should say. It's too soon to tell as Jefferson cautioned us, but still, if you were to plug all these factors into the Kori Sharki computer, what's the most likely outcome in 2024? Does Biden run for president? Does Trump run? If Trump runs, does he win? If it's Biden v. Trump, who wins that contest? What's the most likely outcome do you think? So I very much hope that President Biden won't run because he's 1,000 years old. And there are questions about his declining competence that are also affecting his popularity ratings. And he'll be 1,004 in 2022, so that's a wasting asset. And I think if he does attempt to run, he will be primaried by Democrats because they do not want to lose the 2024 presidential election, and they especially don't want to lose it if our disgraced former president is once again on the ballot. I doubtful myself that our disgraced former president will be on the ballot in 2024 for two reasons. First, I think in the current circumstances, he can wander around Mar-a-Lago, grifting donors for the rest of his life and pretend the election was stolen from him in 2020. But if he runs again, I believe he will lose, and I think he believes he will lose. And so he's going to want to keep it in play until the absolute last minute where you have to file in New Hampshire. And then he will sulk away because I think Trump is not a political phenomenon. He's a psychological phenomenon.  And also, if President Trump attempted to run, the Republican field is already crowded, right? You're probably going to have Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida. You're probably going to have Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina. You're probably going to have Asa Hutchinson, the governor of Tennessee, Alabama.  The upside of that is there's incredible dynamism because it's so entrepreneurial. The parties have very little control over who becomes their standard bearer. And so that makes for wild swings, pendular swings in American politics. But it also means quick corrections. All right. So if I want to nail you down then, you're saying it's most likely it'll be a contest between a Democrat other than Joe Biden and a Republican other than Donald Trump, which means you might be able to actually endorse the Republican candidate in 24. It would be a great pleasure to be able to endorse a candidate of my own party again. All right. Samir, we don't know as much about Indian politics as we do about US politics. So maybe just begin by giving us a snapshot of India at the moment. The last time we spoke was for my podcast, the director's chair. When India was in the grip, I think of that deadly second wave of COVID and things were really difficult. We could hear ambulance sirens in the background as we had our conversation. India has emerged from that. Tell us a bit about the state of affairs in India and Indian politics at the moment. So Michael, since we last spoke, which was pretty much a year ago, I think maybe 14 months ago or 13 months ago, we have recovered strongly. We have recovered strongly in terms of our very ambitious and rapidly delivered vaccination program. We were able to pull our weight behind that particular ambition. We have also been able to recover in terms of our economic growth. We have seen good numbers in the last financial year. In the fastest growing, large economy in the world. We have also been able to, in many ways, put together systems in place which are going to allow us to continue to grow our economy in the days ahead. Some major reforms, some investments in infrastructure, focus on the right sectors. Many states now beginning to take the mantle and do it themselves. So we are in many ways unleashing the federal depth of India in the story. But at the same time, it would be fair to say that everything you say about India, the opposite is also equally true. We continue to remain a development deficit country. And providing what you take for granted to our people continues to remain the enduring challenge for us in this decade that has taken a severe beating curtsy the pandemic, the slowdown, the lockdowns, the disintegration of global trade as it were in the last two years. Now the Ukraine crisis and its implications, second order implications on energy and food and commodity pricing continues to challenge the Indian state and the Indian government in terms of providing what the people need most, which is jobs, which is food, which is medicines and health systems, etc. So we are going to remain a two-paced country for a while where you will continue to read headlines of the unicorns that are appearing every week. But you will also hear stories of challenges and resource scarcity and competition for resources and therefore, loud debates, argumentative Indians are going to continue to dominate that space. That's one part of the Indian story. The second part is like in most parts of the world, like other parts of the world. We are also beginning to see a new Indian direction in terms of its dealing with the big powers, right? So we have clearly a neighbor who doesn't like us to our north. And we are having to dig deep to find ways to deal with the ever-expansive and relentless China. China on the borders, China probing the borders, China wanting to in a way redraw the map of Asia to its advantage is an Indian reality as well. And even as we grapple with our development challenges, service our economy, create global linkages for our future growth, we have a live border where we have 50,000 plus troops facing off against similar numbers.  And I would caution everyone that we are in that period when we could see a careless action in the coming months. So we have to continue to remain vigilant, muscular, on our toes as we face off with China. We have to navigate the Biden presidency because US does become an important partner for us in many of our global endeavors. And for all the reasons that Corey mentioned, perhaps we are also having to navigate a rough foreign landscape where you have the US, which is uncertain in terms of its ability to command global attention. You have Europe occupied with Ukraine. You have Russia embroiled in its own problems of its own making. And you have China on our heels. Our neighborhood is, of course, looking quite uncertain. Sri Lanka is in trouble. Pakistan always likes to be in trouble. And a few other neighbors of ours having their own challenges. So we are in a tough neighborhood. We are in an interesting economic spot. And we are having to face our own development demons in some sense. I think that's the India story. It's good. It's bad. Sometimes it's also ugly. But it's going to be so for the next decade. And tell us a little bit more about the relationship with China.  Were there still communications between ministers? Has the relationship softened at all in those two years? Is there any positivity or optimism in the relationship? Or is it more alert and stalwart? So we have never stopped talking to China. I don't think big powers should behave like that. I don't agree with the current discourse coming out of the Western countries vis-a-vis Russia. I think canceling each other is not an option in geopolitics. Communications need to remain open. But the communications are clearly quite stern. They are quite, in many ways, reflecting the ground situation. So in some sense, I think there is absolutely no trust. We don't trust the Chinese. I think the public perception of China is at its lowest. China has lost the whole generation of Indians. All India is basically a young country. And we have over what, 500 to 600 million under 30. For them, China has lost them forever. In that sense, two years ago, China has signed its own future with the young Indian demography. So I don't think you're ever going to see the relationship reach any degree of coziness. That, I think, lies out of the question. What we have to basically plan for is that how do we maintain stability in the relationship and predictability in the relationship? And for that, communication is important. But the communication we are having with China right now is to prevent conflict. It is not to do more. It is not to build the romantic idea of an Asian Union or an Asian energy grid or an Asian market. We have realized that China wants a unipolar Asia with China at the center. We are clear that for them, the propagation of the interests of the Communist Party of China is the sole motivation. Be it its economic footprint, be it its political footprint, be it its cultural footprint, the sole purpose of everything Chinese is the propagation of the Communist Party of China. And I think that is the assessment of China from India, that we can't negotiate with the Chinese. They don't believe in negotiations. So you have to continue to exert muscular pushback both through the mic and at the border. And I think our relationship will be defined by that. Now, of course, along the way we have collected a few packages. One of them is clearly the membership of the BRICS, which means that whether we want to be in that room or not, since we run a bank together, the new development banks, since we manage an organization together, we will have to have that conversation with the Chinese. We are part of their CO as well. And we are part of a few other organizations where we happen to meet each other. So in that sense, it is both a boon and, of course, a bane for us. It's a boon because at least we get to talk to each other. There is a dialogue that continues even through the worst moments. So you continue to have a line to each other. But it's also disturbing because you have to smile at each other when you don't want to. For the family photos after each of these meetings that follow. So I think we are in for a tough decade. We are at our most vulnerable, at this particular point of time, the asymmetry between their capabilities and ours is perhaps at its sharpest right now. It will begin to diminish in the next five to seven years. As India moves to $5 trillion and then $7 to $8 trillion GDP size, we will have enough defense budget and other economic weight to be able to push back significantly against Chinese encroachments, both political and economic. But till then, I think we will continue to have to build smart partnerships. And guess what? We are not alone. The Australians are in a similar situation. The Americans are hard pressed to do it alone. So I think there are four or five or six countries who are facing the heat of the dragon, who will need to work together smartly and not rely just on Uncle Sam or one actor to deliver. We will have to build our own capabilities to push back. I think in some sense, we will have to hold the line with the Chinese, each of us in our own areas, own geographies, and hopefully make them into more responsible actors. I don't think we can ever expect them to behave like us because they're not like us, but we can expect them to behave within a certain framework of acceptable behavior. All right, well, speaking of one of those smart partnerships, the bilateral relationship, I interviewed your external affairs minister, Dr. Jay Shankar, about perhaps 18 months ago. He said to me then that the bilateral relationship between Canberra and New Delhi was the one that he took the greatest satisfaction in the sense that the progress there had been greater than in other bilateral relationships. What more could we do? I mean, if we want to be ambitious and positive about it, I'm certainly confident that the new government wants to invest in the relationship. What else would you like to see in the relationship? I think a few areas pick themselves. One is political, which is that you are concerned about your neighbors, the island countries around the Pacific Islands. We are concerned about the Indian Ocean island countries. Both of them are facing great inducements by the Communist Party to select the Chinese way of life. I think it's important that we realize that it's not enough to just go and talk to these governments and tell them, no, Chinese are bad, don't do this. No, I think we have to put something on the table. Can Australia and India create an island's initiative, where we actually put together our resources, build an initiative where we invest in the technology futures, we invest in the climate resilience, we invest in the adaptation challenges, and then we actually put money on the table. Rather than saying, don't take Chinese money, we also put our money alongside and say, here, this is safer money, better money, and money that works for you. So I think one is, can we create an island's initiative? I think we are thinking about that. India has teamed up with Australia. Australia was helping the Pacific Islands. We need to do more of that. Can the court, can India and Australia, can like-minded countries put together a development fund that helps these small countries not be gobbled up by Chinese money? And I think talk is not enough. We need the green bucks on the table alongside the talk. That's the first thing. The second, of course, is, finally, hopefully, Australia is back on the climate table. And as India is going to be the world's cleanest $3 trillion, $5 trillion, and then $10 trillion economy, no one would have emitted less carbon than us to get to these numbers. As India makes this green transition, Australia can finally partner in that. You have sophisticated financial institutions. You can create, help us build green instruments, climate finance, exotic funding for special projects. You have great depth in that. Similarly, innovation in R&D and technologies, right? Batteries, solar, hydro, wind. Australia was out of the game. Australia was focused only on the fossil fuel. I don't think that's going to go away.  We shouldn't be the crazies. Fossil fuel will have to play a part as we build up the green capabilities to transit. And I think, finally, we can have a wholesome energy partnership with Australia that covers the entire spectrum of energy. And the third and final, of course, is technology. And I think the previous government had announced some initiatives of creating a Australia-India Technology Center in Bangalore. And I think that could be another area where, rather than becoming the B teams of Silicon Valley, if the Australia-India Technology Partnership could create technology for development for this region, which helps ASEAN, which helps the island countries, which helps the emerging world, we could actually be the A team of the tech for development paradigm. So in that sense, an Australia-India tech partnership for our neighborhood, for the neighborhood that we reside in, could be something that we really, really would both benefit from as well as give others the benefit of. And I think the final point would be the diaspora. Again, I think it has two edges to it. One, of course, it builds closer links between the two countries. We are part of the same continuum. We have the human bridge connecting us. But we will also transmit each other's politics to each other's countries.  But on that point, can we think of scaling up Australia's educational and knowledge partnership with India? So can we, rather than receiving X number of students every year in Australia, can we take Australian institutions to India and offshore your education industry, where you're able to scale up your presence and really build a whole economic future for yourselves in the Indian market that seeks scaling and various kinds of knowledge inputs over the decade? Smart and creative. I told you these guys were energiser bunnies. We've just got a full agenda for the Australia-India relationship, which I think we should turn into an interpreter article and put it out this afternoon under Simea's name. I'm going to come to you guys very soon, but a couple final questions on the international front. First of all, let me ask you, Cori, about Ukraine. What does... We're four months into this brutal, unprovoked, unjustified invasion of Ukraine. What effect is this having, first of all, on the international order? And secondly, how do you think the actual... The battle for Ukraine will end. Russia is having some gains now in the East. Where do you think that will come out? So I think it... To answer your first question, it has an enormous potential effect on the international order. If we resign ourselves to aggression-changing borders and not preventing it, you will see the collapse of the European security order. And as it's the most stable in the international order, it will do grave damage to the possibility of a rules-based international order. I am, however, optimistic that will not come to be. The Russian campaign has been a disaster and a real surprise for me, and I think many other military experts, at how bad the Russians are at this, their tolerance for committing atrocities is a shock, but not unexpected. The terrible performance of their military on basic professionalism is a genuine surprise. They have had to concede the battle in the North, both for Kiev, the capital, and Kherson in the Northeast. They have narrowed their objectives and are trying to hold the Donbas, Luhansk, and to hold the coastline. And I just don't see how the arithmetic works that they succeeded it. 80% of the Russian army is already in Ukraine. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of Defense of my sweet provincial country announced yesterday that our estimate is Russia has already lost 20% to 30% of its military in Ukraine. They don't have much else to draw on, and what they do have to draw on isn't professional and isn't trained and can't be equipped. So Russia is a wasting power in Ukraine. And if you look at the progression of assistance to Ukraine, right, in November, the Biden administration in my country didn't want to send weapons to Ukraine because we thought they would lose very fast and the weapons would end up in Russian hands. In January, we weren't going to send offensive weapons and only defensive ones. And now we're sending weapons that can range Russian territory, but the Ukrainians are promised, right? That toboggan is picking up speed because I think the United States and other Western countries, including quite admirably Australia, have understood that this is a proxy war about the sustainment of the rules-based international order, and we want the Russians to lose, and we want the Ukrainians to regain the sovereignty of the entirety of their territory. All right, Samir, India's position on Ukraine has caused a lot of disappointment in Europe and the United States and Asia. India did abstain from the UN vote on condemning Russia's aggression. Obviously, you have a deep historical relationship with Russia, but is your attitude to Russia changing as this war progresses? As you see the atrocities, for example, that Corey mentioned, and also as you see the weakness of the Russian effort, is that changing the calculation in New Delhi about the value of the relationship with Russia? So, Michael, that's a question with many parts and many subtexts, but let me try and piece it into three parts. The first is our relationship with Russia changing. Our relationship with Russia was changing before the Ukraine conflict. In fact, it would be fair to say that over the last 10 years, both of us have been working very hard to find something that would fire up the partnership again. So in many ways, besides the military partnership and especially the partnership that dealt with some of the crown jewels that Russia gave to us, the nuclear submarines, the S-400s, the hypersonic missile systems, which no one else was willing to put on the table. Besides those elements of the partnership, we were struggling to find any other avenue for significant engagement. Energy was marginal because of the distance and geography and some legacy businesses and legacy linkages continue to keep us closer. Russia was by its inability to grow as an economy, by its inability to become an international actor, was limiting its nature of relationship with India through its own decisions. It wasn't that India was deciding that I'm changing, I've decided against Russia. Russia was just absent from our future and it will continue to remain less significant as in the days ahead. So our relationship was changing even prior to Ukraine. But this does not mean that we don't have significant historical IOUs and obligations to each other. And Russia has been USSR and thereafter, Russia, has been a big support to India in the international system when everyone else wanted to sanction us or wanted to do things to us that we did not like. And for that purpose, there is that old historic partnership that continues to remain in the minds of many. And I always tell folks that the best way to assess this is by looking at that one development in 2004 when India abstained from voting on the US invasion of Iraq. There was a furor in the Indian parliament and the Indian prime minister and the foreign minister were castigated and eventually they had to come out with a strong statement condemning American invasion and they had to change their mind. This time around when India abstained, there was no debate in the parliament. And this is an Indian parliament that can't agree on drinking water. We don't agree on anything, but we agreed on abstaining. And that tells you that there is a historical sense of who, that there is a friendship that needs to be respected. Now, I think that is a bit romanticized. And maybe this particular moment could be the time when we have cleared our obligations and maybe it's a reset for the future. That's one part of the relationship. The second part is that, listen, we have, if you look at our statement alongside our vote, there are, we have shown you the duality of India. Again, that statement is a condemnation of Russia, but the vote is an obsession.  The act is of history and the mood is of your current assessment of Russian action. And I think that must be understood. You are not going to vote against America irrespective of the rationality of America. You will either decide not to attend the UN that day or abstain from voting. The same reason, you have to understand the same pressures work on us. When we are asked to speak about it, we are quite harsh with our assessment of what Russia is doing. In fact, even at the BRICS meeting, our foreign minister has recently said that two countries out of the BRICS have violated the foundational principles of BRICS which is respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity. So even in an internal BRICS meeting, this was mentioned. But it's not just the statements, is it? I mean, you're still importing Russian oil as far as I know, your central banks are working on a payment system to assist the Russians. Yeah, yeah, so my question, though, is the conduct of the war. Do you think both the atrocities but also the ineffectiveness of the Russian military, do you think that will change the relationship in the future? So I think all military planners around the world who have relied on certain kind of weaponry post the Azerbaijan conflict and now Ukraine would have to go back to the drawing books and see what works and what doesn't work in modern conflict. And it would be fair to say that many folks would be assessing the usefulness of some of the investments they've made in equipment coming from Russia. It does not necessarily mean that all of them have not done well or whether the problem was with the equipment or with the planning because you also see the other side use similar equipment and do a better job. So it's not as if the problem is in the trucks and the tanks and in the artillery. It's more about the thought process that went behind it. So I'm not sure you can discard the industry for poor implementation, but having said that, like I mentioned, our economic size is taking us to a place where when we are five or six billion dollars and we have to buy 12 to 15 billion dollars of international defense equipment every year, Russia is not even, is not going to be able to contribute even a fraction of it. It has counted itself out of our future. We have already seen our Air Force and Navy diversify away and move into European and American platforms. You are going, the army has been slower because our army is a live army, active army. We fight, right? We have a border with the Chinese. We have a border with Pakistan. It's impossible for India to do a major re-jig vis-a-vis the land army is concerned because we are in an active situation. So you are going to see increasingly a diversification away and into different geographies for our defense needs. But I must respond to the rather false canard that is being spread on India, Russia, trade and India, Russia, energy purchases. Look here, our energy purchases are marginal. Marginal into four is still marginal. We are not going to see Russia becoming a major supplier of Indian energy needs at the end of this year. So let's be very clear. It is going to remain insignificant compared to the 53 billion euros that the European Union has already paid to Russia by way of its fossil fuel transactions.  So please focus on what Europe buys from Russia, not what India buys from Russia. We are not in the same frame. The second point. We can focus on what everybody buys. The second part, we will buy from Russia. The same reason Europe is buying from Russia. We all have to look after our own needs. Our own immediate needs have to be catered to. Governments are meant to do that. We were primarily procuring our energy from the Middle East. Now, most of you guys have suddenly decided Middle East is your source. You've come into my reservoir of energy. You have started to pick out from that reservoir. You have crowded out India from the options of Iran and Venezuela. And now you want to continue to have a favorable energy partnership with Russia while denying anyone else the same privilege and dipping into my reservoir. That it doesn't work like that. I need energy. And I'm going to get it. And I'm going to get energy at the right prices. So we are going to see the same transactionalism happen in India that Europe is engaged with or America is engaged with. We are going to look after the interests of our people without having to compromise on what we believe in our principles. Those two are not related. And the India, Russia, ruble rupee trade is not. It predates Ukraine by many decades. So it's not a new system. It has been activated because you have prevented us from using this system. It doesn't mean that it did not exist before that. All right, good. I've had my crack at Corey and Samir. I've still got some other questions I'd like to ask. And I haven't mentioned the quad yet, which was the pretext for getting everybody here today. So I'll have to come back on the quad. But I want to give the audience an opportunity to ask some questions. Yes. All right, I'll take two questions at a time. And I'm going to ask people to keep their questions very brief, if you don't mind, this gentleman and then that gentleman. We'll take two questions at a time. My name is Krishna, a professor from University of New South Wales. Samir, you are not from government. So I thought I would ask this question. You raised the whole issue between China and India, the border issues. Historically speaking, China has been raising Arunachal Pradesh, and it has been raising various other issues. Why is that India very quiet on the Tibet issue? We have, I think, about half a million Tibetans who are in refugees in India. Is Tibet a very sacrosanct or one China policy, a very sacrosanct kind of a thing? Or is it going to remain like that? Not only for India, but for other countries as well. Understood, thank you, Professor. And we'll take a question from this gentleman with the face mask. Well done for preserving COVID safety there, sir. My name is Tang, I'm an analyst at Macquarie. They're unrelated to geopolitics. My question here is, being in the Quad comes with certain commitments. What are the commitments that the rest of the three members that most expect out of India? And what is the commitment that India is most reluctant to commit to? They're good questions. Sumi, why don't you kick off? So on the one China policy and the importance of Tibet, look here. My view is that India is hosting the Tibetan government in exile and lots of Tibetans in India. And that itself is a clear public demonstration of our recognition of Tibetan rights, Tibetan people, and the Tibetan cause. So every day, every moment that that continues is an Indian support for that particular issue. So I don't think India is shying away or is even coy. We are in the open hosting them. And the Dalai Lama enjoys all freedoms in India. Plans is international travel, meets international dignitaries and visitors. The question is, are others doing enough for the Dalai Lama in India? I think are other countries inviting him? Are other countries engaging with him? Are other countries engaging with the Tibetans? The opportunity that is being offered by the very fact that India allows them to be here and allows them to meet everyone that they want to meet. So I think the question is, do others want to invest in the Tibetan issue? The opportunity which is offered by India hosting them in Himachal, in Dharamsala. So that's one part of it. But I think you would have seen a change already in India being kind of coy and not necessarily towing that one China policy nomenclature anymore. I think Sushma Sarawak changed that. And we have not said that anymore. We have refrained from announcing that or even acknowledging it till such time that China does not acknowledge one India policy. If China wants India in parts, then God bless them with a similar outcome. So I think we should not be shy from, and as a think tanker, I can say this. I think we need to be perhaps even more pronounced in acknowledging that there is no one China. And there are significant parts of China that don't believe they are parts of China. And I think we should continue to have that option with us in our communication with China till such time that they make peace with their neighbors and with us. And I think that's an important tool to have on what are the demands from the Quad from India. I don't think there are too many demands. I think Quad is a limited purpose partnership, which is to continue to work together and be ready for such time when it's principal mission, which is right now to have great food in four different capitals to become more active and respond to the Chinese threat. I think for me, Quad is the preparatory group meeting for an eventuality where they may all be faced with unrelenting and expansive dragon. And then they will have to discover specific instruments as well as policy options to respond to it. So Quad at this stage is getting to know each other and sharing your own perspectives about the challenges you face, sharing information and assessments, and working together and investing in a region that doesn't necessarily have to lean too much on the dragon. So I think this is the early stage of something more significant that is likely to happen a bit later. This is Quad 1.0, which is quite easy-paced. I don't think there are any demands of each other. All right, Corey, jump in. Limited purpose partnership, the main purpose of which the moment is to have great food in four different capitals and prepare for something in the future. Is that your view of the Quad at the moment or are you a bit more ambitious for it? I think it's sly and funny and not quite true that they just eat good food in four capitals. The food's not that good. What I think I see from America's relations in other parts of the world is that routine consultation at high levels of government and military, over time conditions you to much more deeply understand each other's concerns and creates a dovetailing of perspectives. And so I think we already begin to see some of that. It's facilitating cooperation and won't just come in handy on limited partnerships. But I think it's important that the first Biden administration initiative for the Quad was on vaccines, not on military cooperation. So these four countries have a lot of things in common and a lot of work that needs doing for themselves and for others. And so creating an institutional way to facilitate cooperation and deeper understanding actually I think is incredibly valuable. All right, I wanna do at least one more round of questions, so I'm gonna hold it there. I'll take a question from this gentleman and that lady. Why don't we go with that lady first as the microphone's near you, madam. Thank you. Thank you, Yovana Rarten. I was hoping to get your views as to what do you think is gonna be the impact of the changing economic outlook, the capture of the US citizens by Russia and the sentence pass on UK citizens on the overall short, medium term development of the war in Ukraine. Thanks. Thank you. Sir. Thank you very much. I'm retired naval officers from Bangladesh Navy. Can I ask two questions? If they're brief and punchy, yes. Yes, brief to Cody, you just started the first speech that the China had intention, malign intention. So I put myself into China's shoes. So if the British West and everybody could have their own island or some understanding agreement in Pacific, if China comes to make agreement in Pacific islands, it's a sovereign islands. So why do we consider China had a malign intention if where there is a pen and paper is everything to improve the development, economy, trade, everything? Okay, got it. Yeah. So, Mr. Samid, before I ask you, you said Ukraine crisis. So a few times. Sorry? You said Ukraine crisis. But the whole Western media, they say it's an invasion by US. Russia. Russia. So do you agree? And they're right. Ukraine, that doesn't mean it's not a crisis. It is an invasion by Russia, but it's still a crisis because now it is beyond just the invasion. Now it has implications beyond just the war that is being fought. And I was talking about the larger. It has implication. Just wrap up your question. Okay. I'll answer your question. It is an invasion and it is a crisis book. So can I ask you the climate? No, I'm going to stop you there because I want to give some other people some opportunity. So you've answered the question on the invasion. Corey? Yes. So if I recall the question, it was, how is the darkening economic outlook in the US and other countries likely to affect support for Ukraine? I very much hope the answer to that is not at all because Ukrainians did not cause these problems of food scarcity because Russia has barricaded their ports and refusing to allow grain to be shipped and is lubbing artillery pieces into Ukrainian farm fields. So it will be a challenge as energy prices go up for us all, as food prices go up for us all. I was very pleased to see that Secretary Blinken, the American Secretary of State, when the US took over its turn in the chair of the UN Security Council said that America's priority for our security council term would be food insecurity and what the United States and other nations can do to attenuate the consequences for countries that bear no responsibility for what Russia has done, including Ukraine, but not only Ukraine, and make sure food remains available. So I hope it doesn't affect it. It doesn't appear in my own sweet provincial country. My mom isn't mad at the Ukrainians for gas prices. She's mad at the president and not because of his Ukraine policy. And I... Another question was on why should we say that Chinese probing in the Pacific is a lie? Yeah, because they refuse to acknowledge the sovereignty of their neighbors. As the UN court in the Hague voted against China for its intimidation and attempts to seize Philippine territory, for the way Vietnam and other countries are very nervous about China's claims on their territory, for the reckless military behavior experienced only last week by Australia but by so many of our countries, and the fact that last week China's defense secretary stood up at the Shangri-La Dialogue and said there's no such thing as sovereignty of weak countries. That's why I think they're a malign actor. So just two quick points. One on your question on why is China malign. China is malign because China is opaque, unreachable and unquestionable. That's why it's malign. When I disagree with the U.S., I can take a placard and stand outside the White House if I can buy a ticket. And I can protest against American action. I can also petition the Congress. I can also talk to the media. And I can also question their actions. I can abuse them online. I can criticize them online. Now, try and do that to Xi Jinping on Baibo and Baidu, and you will get to know why they are malign. So do this experiment today. Tell me if you had a different experience than I did. So China is an unaccountable actor, and an unaccountable actor should not have the kind of power that China wants to wield. Countries that are accountable, countries that are transparent, countries who can be impeached should be the countries who should actually contribute to global affairs and should provide the undergirding of our global public goods. It doesn't mean that America was not a hegemon, and America did not do terrible things. I just mentioned the invasion of Iraq. And we have a list for every year where America, it doesn't mean that anyone else is non-malign, but at least they are accountable. And that's the point that we are trying to make here. Now, on your question on, look, I think in some sense, if you were to have that UN General Assembly vote again, you will not get 141 votes against Russia anymore. I think the wins that you had in the early days may have already, in some sense, been moderated. And in the battle of perceptions, the food crisis and energy crisis is not blamed on Russia, in the emerging world and in the developing countries. Many of them blame it on Western action, Western sanctions, Western responses. And this is a fact. I'm not saying whether it's true. I'm just saying that the perception is a fact. That largest number of people believe that it is the hardship that they're enduring today is curtsy American and European action. Now, the challenge here is, when will the Europeans and American perceptions also start believing this? Till such time that it is the distant countries who think this way, it doesn't change the dynamics of the war. But when American public opinion or European public opinion starts believing that its own interests are being hurt and it is a possibility that it could happen in certain parts, in certain countries in Europe, you will begin to see rethinking. In fact, if you were sitting in Kremlin today, you would be actually betting on that. You would be hoping for that. You would actually also be instigating that. In some sense, if you were to have one response to the current alliance that is being mobilized against them, it would be to use economic hardship as a means of sowing the seeds of division between the partners. And I truly believe that Europe has itself to blame for this. In the last six months or four months since the war, but at least the last many, many years since we've been talking about it, Europe has done precious little to build infrastructure to receive energy from other sources. And come the winters of 2022, it will still be dependent on Russian energy, which means this winter is going to be an interesting period, both politically and in terms of our economic hardship issues. So I think this is an interesting winter of Europe. Winter is coming. I'm going to take the final question. I'm going to ask you each for a very brief response. I'm going to give you, Corey, the last word too, because just in case you want to respond to anything that Samir said recently. How optimistic are you? Based on the international order that we find ourselves, we're in the middle of this shocking invasion and crisis that might go either way. We have stock market crashes, interest rates increasing, inflation increasing, a real risk of stagflation, recession, financial crisis. On the other hand, we have a decent person in the White House for the first time. I would say certainly that there is some hope in the heroics of President Zelensky, the resistance of the Ukrainian people, and the support that many parts of the world have provided. Not all parts of the world, you're right, it's not uniform. Does that leave you optimistic or pessimistic about the world, Samir? About the world. About the world. Look, there are large parts of the world where this decade and this period is the period of great hope and change. So don't let the European pessimism make you believe that this is the world view. This is a commonly held world view. Many parts of the world are using this time to meet their aspirations, raise people out of poverty. This is that period when many people are going to be focused on changing their destinies. So many parts of the world see the next five, seven years as important for their national journeys, societal journeys. Are they hopeful of having global support as they were a few years ago? No. Clearly, many of them have to rethink their assumptions in terms of support from the European Union or from the international institutions or from America if they continue to remain preoccupied with this political conflict. So people are finding other plans. People are finding other routes. But people are going to get by. There are young people on the rise, and they are going to do this. So I'm not hopeful about the sanctity of the international order. But I hope on the ingenuity of people who are determined to meet their aspirations and ambitions. Corey. So I too am hopeful about people reaching their aspirations. As dark a picture as we are looking at internationally in a lot of ways, my grandfather would have thought this was a pretty good world compared to the one he more economically prosperous, more reliable, safer. And I think importantly, for all of the challenges you rightly identified, Michael, we also have the tools to address them. And that was not the case previously. You do have a robust set of cooperative allies with a common purpose of maintaining prosperity and security in the international order. You do have a great recognition that we not only that we have responsibilities to developing societies, but that they have enormous ability to shape their futures with education, with technology, with opportunity, with immigration, with changing their own governments. So yeah, I am actually hopeful that, despite all of those challenges, that we have the ability to navigate them in ways that will make the world even safer and even more prosperous for our children. If you want to finish on an optimistic note, always go to a Californian. I've really enjoyed this conversation. You mentioned, Samir, that accountability and transparency is the key to whether an actor is benign or maligned. We've demonstrated some accountability and transparency today. I know in the bustling, robust democracies of India and the United States and Australia, there's always that accountability, that ability to ask tough questions, to disagree, to agree, but to do it with good humor. We've touched on the quads, so I'm glad we ticked that box, but we've gone much broader on Ukraine, on Indian politics, on US politics, on development, on technology, on the rules-based order. And many topics. It's been a great discussion. I hope that my friends in Moscow, as well as everybody here on Bly Street, has enjoyed it. So please join me in thanking Corey and Samir. Thank you.


dedicated to the strength of the nation. proudly we hail Arlene Dahl in deep in the heart United States Army United States Air Force presentation now here is our producer the well-known Hollywood showman C.P. McGregor thank you thank you and greetings from Hollywood ladies and gentlemen welcome to your theater of stars where Hollywood's finest motion picture talent joins us in plays we know you'll enjoy our star is that sensational young actress Arlene Dahl and the title of our romantic comedy deep in the heart this is the story of a girl who wanted to become an actress in Hollywood and found that her greatest scene was played at a hamburger stand we'll have the curtain for act one in a moment but first here's Wendell Niles with an important message we Americans are proud of the United States Army and the United States Air Force and we have good reason to feel that way regular Army men and United States airmen are among the finest in the country they are symbols of freedom and democracy they are helping to keep America secure and at peace of all these young men in these proud uniforms are representatives of the people of the United States and our desire to lead a happy and peaceful life give them the respect and the support they deserve now once again our producer the curtain rises on act one of deep in the heart starring Arlene Dahl as Winnie Lou Texas Sun barbecues the prairie and the little cow town shimmers in a haze of heat on the depot platform a lanky Texan leans against the baggage truck his arm around a pretty girl who keeps looking at a wristwatch the train pulls in stands there panting the girl knows the time has come well goodbye Tex take care yourself think about me now and then probably won't think about nothing else Winnie Lou I wish you wasn't so done mule headed I'm not mule headed told you a hundred times that I have to go can't help it oh you could too Hollywood moving pictures honey you just going out there and starve to death that's all I won't starve to death I'll go out there and mount to something everybody ought to be the most they can be as they just laying down better than going out there and laying an egg show you for goodness sake I can do it look at me look alright don't I oh you look alright to me you look beautiful to me well but then I ain't particularly I'll show you if it's the last thing I ever do five years from today I'll be somebody huh where will you be five years from today I'll be just fine Texas will take care of me maybe right where you are now run your ranch and I'll be you'll be way on your way from not eating regular just like to see you five years from today you just made yourself a deal what five years from today I'll come see you you where huh that suits me fine you see oh bye honey be seen in five years you can come to the front door I'll tell my butler to let you in bye when they lose there she goes sweet darling beautiful mule headed little heifer and ever so often for the last five years Winnie Lou has had a letter from Tex Tucker now it is only one more day until they keep their long promised date and now in Hollywood another great motion picture is about to be born it's the last day of shooting and a famous screen star is resting in her portable dressing room on the huge sound stage as the crew lights the set she and her friend are talking five years Gloria that's what it's been half a decade and every single letter I've had in all that time he said the same thing just didn't think you had it in you never crossed his mind that I'd get anywhere well of course I've never known you as anything except Dawn Shelton what is your real name why did you have to ask me that what is it a little peach I was christened Winnie Lou Winnie Lou Hooten isn't that just sweet well I do like Dawn Shelton better do you think you'll really keep the date oh I'm sure I will he's mentioned it in his last five a last half dozen letters you'll be there I'd give anything to be there too but I have to be in Palm Springs now have we arranged everything if I could think of anything else to ask you to do I would Miss Shelton could we see you on the set please uh coming right up here I go back to work oh thanks honey get me tomorrow at four well it is nicely here from you when did you arrive we had some sort of engagement tomorrow didn't we oh isn't that just too bourgeois better fact I'm giving a little cocktail party tomorrow at four perhaps you could stop in then yes do that at least I'll steal a moment for you after all levier connaissant so les malheurs nécessaire aren't they I'm sorry you don't understand French of course you don't you're still fighting English well shall we say tomorrow at four then that would be quite impossible you wouldn't understand the demands that no to four o'clock oh and take uh how long are you going to be in town another week well things here are a lot more expensive than they are back home in Texas and I was wondering shall I send a taxi for you well that little ranch of yours the way you have to work with your hands so I thought baby you don't know I don't tucker delighted to see you delighting all right you're my very favorite customer you know well is everything be ready tomorrow morning like we're playing everything Mr. Tucker the boots the suits the multi-colored shirts and Mr. Tucker I took the liberty of having double monograms on the shorts that you are having made up was I right all son you're right as a fox on a cloudy morning alone and are them presents I picked up being delivered every morning like I asked you oh yes indeed every morning at eight o'clock sharp we deliver a present to me sir I'm holding when a little hold well we've sent one of your choices every morning since you arrived in town musical cigarette box archery set the large wardrobe trunk the bowling ball and bag the crystal bottle and did you put that stuff that smells so sweet in reluctantly yes and just today we sent the ship's clock with barometer attached well good I sent us some flowers on Sunday put it in her and fling all made up to look like a big horse you know she must have been delighted I hope so of course she don't know who's sending all these things yeah she's probably just amazed at each one of them she probably is all right all right but I don't seem to recognize the name Mr. Tucker hootin Winnie Lou Hootin is it possible of course you don't ain't nobody never heard of but the address I'm almost certain that's the home of some famous picture star but I can't quite think who's well I got that all figured out she probably works there cooking and washing dishes or something poor kid she sure did try to put on a dog asked me to a cocktail party likely just a few folks old tarred bottle of ginger ale sandwich and stuff like that I see well sir I'm on busting there tomorrow and I'm gonna show her well you certainly be dressed for the occasion yes sir get me tomorrow at four could you help me please yes of course I can Michelle I'd better start dressing for the party yes ma'am I just can't make up my mind which gown to wear there's simply too many in that closet to choose from what about one of these had a Carnegie outfits say this one and you could wear the rubies with it you'd be gorgeous no no I'm afraid that'd be overdressing a little for a cocktail party that ruby ring the bracelet and pins all diamonds and rubies well I don't think so wish I had problems like that I love them too no I'll tell you I think I'd like to wear that that black dress with the clips and rings I see what you mean simple and elegant yes that's it and now Marie if you just lay off the black dress the clips in the ring the sheerest lingerie I'll be out of my perfume bath shortly and you may dress me oh is it me mr.   Tucker yeah got me a day cocktail party how you think I'm gonna look in this year full dress suit pretty awful pretty you smell pretty too well I want to smell pretty this time mind holding a coat for me oh no sir I'll hold you cool mr. Tucker huh you better get yourself another shirt this is tore tore yes or it's tore clean up the back oh son you ain't never got out of west Texas this shirt ain't tore she's made that away says which sure it is see him little pearl buttons she buttons up the back well I am a suck egg mule well the world sure is going to pieces ain't it didn't never think I'd see a fella from Texas wearing blouses blouses by during with a little old pearl buttons on just like the gals where have I got to go home and worry about you oh don't give me no soul talk son I know where's pink in here's the important date I got to kick me a woman in effect well that's reasonable but huh oh not sure enough but I want to do things right I called up master place where I buy stuff at what was the dressiest during outfit they saw me and they told me full dresser said full dress with tails on your coat and sparkling studs in your shirt now here now hold my coat yes there now let me see it is a pretty darn thing once you get it on looking in the looking glass just like in moving pictures yeah what time is after three well where's my hat right here I'll see you wearing a man's hat anyhow yeah so me a thing I wouldn't wear that cat fight this year's a $40 debt everybody knows that they ain't no better hat than that no sure and how do I look fine them boots is pretty but they ain't no good that leather had a made to go with this year outfit well here goes you want me to get you a tax cab mr. Tucker why of course not like I said I want to do things right I heard me a saddle horse all over silver and leather gonna get on and ride ride right down Hollywood Boulevard to the waiting arms of poor little Winnie-Lew of course briefly from our story deep in the heart starring Arlene Dahl to bring you an important message from our government veterans of the Army Navy the Air Force Marine Corps and the Coast Guard as well as men in uniform here's big news for you the Department of the Army has recently announced a brand new way for you to become a second lieutenant immediately if you can meet the following requirements you must be between the ages of 19 and 32 have two years or more of college have had at least one year of honorable service in the armed forces and be physically fit if you meet these qualifications you can apply immediately for a second lieutenant's commission in the organized reserve and receive two years immediate active duty don't overlook this outstanding opportunity to become a leader in the world's finest army this is your chance to get in on the ground floor in a satisfying and respected career and don't forget this is a brand new offer go to your local US Army and US Air Force Recruiting Station where you'll receive complete details the curtain rises on act 2 of deep in the heart starring Arlene Dahl as Winnie-Lew Houten when Winnie-Lew took off for Hollywood Tex Tucker bet she'd starved she bet in five years she'd be famous the five years are up and Texas come to Hollywood to see how Winnie-Lew was fared as Caltown Tex a thing of splendor in his full dress suit rides up to Winnie-Lew's front door he doesn't dream that she has known his pictures as Dawn Shelton he rings the doorbell wait a she gets a load of me hot dog good up it good heavens was there something to matter am I in the wrong place I feel you must be who did you wish to see please looking for a girl named Winnie-Lew Houten you know it probably works here oh would you wait just please right there hmm black dress a lace apron and a nurse's carry well Tex hello what are you doing in that out out there well I won't you come in Tex you mean come on in there yes of course sure your boss won't care maybe maybe you're mumbling what if he has to come on in it takes what's the matter with you I don't know just looking at you again in all the world they ain't nothing as beautiful as yours oh thank you to me that is oh to you of course I'm prejudiced ain't nobody could see what I see oh they couldn't that's natural honey to the he rattlesnake they ain't nothing in all nature so beautiful as a she rattlesnake well oh there you are Marie will you take mr.   Zehler sorry I'll do didn't you have time to take off your makeup this is my business manager mr. Shaw yeah mr. Shaw remind me to get the name of your Taylor this is my publicity man mr. Newell howdy like to see you later Tucker you look like a story to me oh that reminds me I've got a story for you out it's really funny well good tell me well some small has been sending me presents no name nothing most amazing thing first came a little box I opened it and it tickled out of tune nobody's darling but my own and then I was bombarded with athletic equipment and a trunk and a bowling ball that keeps following me down the stairs a thing with a barometer of flowers well are they these were made up like a big horseshoe and it said good luck in daisies yes and you know what else oh not anything more yes bottles pretty bottles well and they were filled with shaving low shavings priceless absolutely priceless no idea who sent them I really can't imagine well I'll dream of somebody some complete dope of course thanks it's a beautiful story isn't that one for the book yeah yeah that's one for the book oh there's Count Mavano how nice to see you oh mrs.  Tucker hi Bordner what's it Count Mavano is my fencing master oh well fencing huh now that's interesting oh isn't that you fence to mr. Tucker oh sure used to fence from a form and fella called slim we could dig more postals and throw up more bob wire than any two feathers uh what's the matter but count fences with foils oh it does with foils you understand now or do you you don't fall honey or do I fall yeah don't fall because you're riding an awful high home guess where we're going tonight huh yes romanos the chef here is famous I'm hoping you'll be available for my next dinner party when if you'd like to come to Texas from one of my barbecue I doubt that you know it's absurd but sometimes just occasionally I miss Texas are you enjoying the ballet text rather have a hamburger not a graceful graceful you said you know that ballerina looks like a fairy queen floating starter rather she's dancing with looks like he's a jacket club with a hangover strange that you can't see what I see out here and I can't see what you mean about Texas well goodbye window you're going going back to Texas yeah leaving I out get your reservations all right oh sure got me a drawing room with all the fixings that they are spatial fairy deluxe train you know are you ever coming back no not ever no not not even years from now no goodbye I'm glad you have everything you want yeah I'm just lucky I guess glad you've got everything too well goodbye goodbye dad and if you if I could dare boy sure do appreciate this lift okay I used to do a little hitchhiking myself where you're heading just coming home deep smith county texas deep smith where you been hollywood california quite a ways couldn't manage a railroad ticket no sir I let in hollywood with nearly three thousand dollars left with four dollars and forty cents oh girl of course yes girl but I showed her yeah showed her did well here we are as far as I go in your direction well this is fine I can get me a hamburger in there thank you welcome next time you get three thousand dollars you better buy some home you think I won't buy goodbye let me see howdy what you're gonna have to eat say that again well I just asked you what you're gonna have to eat don't you listen at me I'd just like to hear you talk why do you you sound like taxes now I know I'm home taxes you mean I ain't neither give me a hamburger with onion with everything one hamburger Joe don't overlook nothing one hamburger here's your water napkin I do for you hamburger yes with onion no one hamburger Joe without nothing hamburger come on honey darling it's you oh oh Joe what are you doing here having a hamburger what you're doing here what having a hamburger well I don't get it that old jalapia drove up in a hamburger honey what's happened nothing nothing's happened that's just it what nothing happened since I left Texas over five years ago oh don't you see no I don't well Texas I was a failure in hollywood I don't need a dead star finally I got a job sort of as a stand-in for star gloria Marshall she turned out to be the best friend I ever had I told her about you I always said I'd be a failure so we set out to impress you with her home her clothes her servants everything but but but all them people your agent your manager and that kind of text extras for the most dress extras stand-ins like me well I'll be dirt none after you left it seems so so absurd the whole thing I missed Texas I told you that a dozen times but you never hurt me you mean you're coming back to me I was not you with your darn oil wells I'm not going to stay away for years and then come running back when I know you're successful baby you want to know something I ain't got no other way everything just like when you left I was going to tell you about it later but when you got so high I decided to be a big shot too and I was just just showing you oh honey now don't cry everything's all right now you're so wonderful and so beautiful do I do you honey what is it perfume very special I wear it for sedimentary it's shaving lotion oh oh that's wonderful his folks is generating their own heat curtain falls in the final act of deep in the heart our star Arlene doll will return for a curtain call after this timely message from Wendell Niles man only the best can be aviation cadets and if you are between the ages of 20 and 26 and one half with two years of college or the ability to pass an equivalent examination and physically fit you're in line for a future unlimited with those basic qualifications you can apply for cadet pilot training and only the best can be aviation cadets as an aviation cadet you will receive a year of the finest aviation training in the world when you have completed your course successfully you will be a full fledged pilot a second lieutenant in the air force reserve and placed on active duty immediately with beginning pay up to three hundred and thirty six dollars per month if you are an outstanding graduate you'll receive a regular commission immediately otherwise you still have good opportunity to qualify for a regular commission while on active duty but either way your future is unlimited to find out if you qualify inquire at your nearest us army air force base or recruiting station at once remember only the best can be aviation cadets and I'll once again at the microphone our star Arlene doll and our producer Arlene I suppose you know we put in a special request to the hollywood coordinating committee for you to star in this play mr landi mentioned it cp and I'm truly honored I think the real honor is the head of hopper prediction for 1949 among all the young actresses she picked you for a superstar done this year I think our listeners will agree with Heta my all these nice things what can I say nothing just keep up the good work incidentally what brought you to hollywood well one of brothers signed me from New York to do my wild Irish rose then last year I joined MGM I remember southern Yankee that you did with reds kelton then I was loaned out to Walter wanger to make a reign of terror opposite Robert Cummings oh it's just been released drama isn't it yes I thought you preferred comedy and drama and that's why we had this story for you well I really prefer musical just for the record and we had to go and give you a comedy fine cast oh really I loved it and I particularly like Bob Yarbrough's story he did a fine job didn't he and this story you sold a bob frost for a picture no really I guess he was too busy playing text to tell me I think it's grand it certainly is and by the way now that you are back at metro what's planned for your next picture well I think it's going to be a musical and with gene keller isn't that fine wonderful more proof that Heta hopper's prediction is coming true yes it is fine Arlene and I wish you a lot of luck thank you but believe me I've got my fingers crossed what's next here with you next week Arlene and ladies and gentlemen turhan bay will star in a light romantic play the magnificent road this is the story of a violinist in Paris who played like hyphens our and chrysler and whose recital came to an abrupt end when it was discovered that he was delinquent in his union dues to the plumber's local sounds grand and as usual I'll be listening goodbye cp and thank you goodbye Arlene we should have done this next week ladies and gentlemen and we bring you turhan bay in the magnificent road until then thanks for listening and cheerio from hollywood harlene doll appeared for the courtesy of a hollywood coordinator of eddie which arranges for the appearance of all stars in this program scripted by Barton Yarborov with music out of the direction of eddie scravan program is transcribed in hollywood for release at this time wendell niles


Well, hello my friends and welcome back to my channel. Today is a really fun day because I finally, finally got my Aaron Kondren life planner for 2019. I know, I know, I should have about this a while ago when they first came out, but I didn't. I wanted to wait and decide what I really wanted. I decided to go with something kind of different this year, so I'm very excited to share all of the details as well as do a walkthrough. I am going to find somewhere in my archives, my walkthrough of my 2018 planner. I'll put it up in the card thing up here somewhere. I do have my 2018 planner here. I have like sticky notes and stuff on the very front of it right now, but I wanted to hold onto this for reference for some of the pages if I wanted to like see the differences. But anyways, first things first, there is a ruler. It's right in the very front. I'm going to pop this off right now and it does have this like little protective film so you can pull this off. Tada. Some people think they're blue. They're not. They're clear and this has the new woven wonder pattern on it. So I decided to go with the Luxe planner this year. So what that means it's like a hard coiled in planner. So what that means is it's hard cover planner. So this is all coiled in. You can't remove this. I mean, I guess you probably could remove it at some point, but it's meant to be a permanent cover. However, you can lay other covers over it if you want to. Let me show you what that looks like real quick. So here's just like the cover that I currently have on mine. So you can push this in if you want. I know this is going to kind of look a little wonky, but that's okay. Okay, so if you can see, you can put a other Aaron Condren cover over it. It will stick out just a little bit.   I think it would be totally fine. Okay, so moving right along. I decided to go with the customized foil. And you guys know me, I usually am not like big into customization, but I thought that this would be really nice. And it just has FDE, which is my channel initials. Also, because this one came with only the gold foil option, I decided to go with a gold coil this year. I think the first year I had an Aaron Condren planner, which is like, I don't know, four years ago now. I got a gold coil as well. But ever since then, I've always had the platinum coils just because I'm like, I don't want to pay 10 bucks more. Like I don't need to do that. But I felt like platinum coil with gold would kind of look a little funny. I don't know. This pattern is the woven wonder pattern. It is the new pattern for the 2018-2019 season. The two colors that they have in the Luxe cover are this one, which is like the colorful one. It has more of a navy background, and then it has all of the different colors on it. There is also a black one that then has the white pattern all over it. And I can't remember what color foil that one comes with. I can't, I don't know, I can't remember y'all. But that's okay. But I decided to go with this one. And then on the backside is the navy with them kind of like this lighter powder blue in there. Like more like an indigo blue color. So obviously in the front cover, normally you have this little whiteboard. If you really wanted a whiteboard, you could definitely tuck this in and you know, not have that many issues. If you really wanted to like a dry erase board or something on there, that could definitely work for you. So in the very front, I haven't really opened up anything at all except for just the front cover now with you guys. But this is a little like sampler thing. They do this, it seems like every year they do some sort of iteration of this. So it looks like you get three compliment cards, two cards for a family and friend discount for 20% off your next purchase, and then you know, one for you and one for a friend. And then there's some gift labels. There's two of those. And then also a coil clip connector, which is great because the first year that I got an Aaron Condren, there were these little pouches, which are fantastic, but they were already adhered inside of the book. And I believe it was in the back, but you get this Aaron Condren coil clip.   And then you get the pouch, which is fabulous. And it has a little slide on here. Oops. Here's the slide.  So here is my like two coupons. I'm not going to turn it around because I'm probably going to use my coupon as well as give it, give another one to a friend. And then two stickers that say enjoy. This one is in gold and it has the same pattern as the front of the planner. And it says to and from some cute little gift labels. And then this one is kind of like more of a peachy color. And then has my favorite thing, rose gold. Anyway, and then here are the three compliment cards. Oh, cool. I've never, I don't know if I've ever seen compliment cards that have the foil on them. I don't know. Maybe it says new for this year. I don't know. Maybe I have. I have no idea. Okay. But anyway, all right. So let's put all this fun stuff over to this side. And then as you walk into the planner, as always, there is the vellum page. And this is the colorful life planner in the hourly layout. That's what I decided to go with for this year. I always love my planner to start in January and then end in December. I know a lot of people like the option to do the summer months as well. You know, I don't know, everyone gets to kind of like a choice now, which I think is really nice. So anyway, so this is this. And then the paper feels the same as last year. And that just says like, this is my life. And then you can put your name or whatever on there. Oh, oh, I got two pages. Oh, cool. There we go. I don't know. Maybe if I screw up, then I have another one. That's all right. I'm not mad at that. And in the front, there's a little quote page and it says, you have everything inside you to be and do anything you want. And then we go right into the layouts for 2000, the rest of 2018 and then 2019. I think the reason they do this is because you do have the option to start your planner in July and go all the way to December 2019. But like I said, mine starting in January and going through December, you can also do July through June. So there's a bunch of different options on the website and links will be below as always. Love that it has the woven wonder pattern at the top. I'm like really into the woven wonder. Last year was what was it? The pastel one. And I just kind of didn't, I wasn't like totally into the pastel, like the pastel petal petals, petals, painted petals. That's what it was. Oh my gosh, it took me a while to like really get there. I wasn't that into it mainly because I felt like it kind of looked like Dalmatian spots. I mean, I don't know if I was the only one that thought that, but I just, I don't know. I wasn't into it, but that's all right. I'll show you what I'm talking about. These. I don't know. Just wasn't into it last year. That's all right though. So anyway, let's move along. And then this page here has 12 boxes, all different color codes. And the idea is you could do goal setting and things like that, as well as you could label all of these for specific months and put in like, you know, birthdays or anniversaries or I don't know, whatever you want to do or just keep track of things. I mean, I don't know. To be honest, I don't think I've ever used this in any planner. Yeah, I don't think I have, but maybe this year you never know. You never know. And then what I'm very excited about is that this page, hold on, let me show you. This page in the old planner is now gone. Thank God. I know some people really loved that thing, but I just couldn't get a handle on that page. It just kind of drove me a little berserk. So I love that there's just lined pages. I know that there's a lot of sticker shops out there that make the template for that. So you could still like have those little circles and the columns and all of that. But I like the less structure it's possible. I don't, that's not like grammatically correct. I'm sorry. But I like the least structure is possible because if I want to then design something for myself or whatever, in January, I might have like a really great idea and I might do a bunch of columns and like all this other stuff. And then in February, I might want to do something different. So I like that it's just lines. It's kind of more of a guideline, but you can kind of do whatever you want to. So anyway, that's my little soapbox on that. So thank you to the Aaron Condren team for changing that. I'm very, very appreciative. So going into January, the January like the pages that have the tabs on them are always a little bit thicker than the rest of the paper. And that's to be expected. It's been like that for quite a while. New changes with this. So looking at the 2018 planner versus this one is not too much has changed. However, I love that the new one has the new month moving forward down here. Obviously it's still the same like the little notes area is still exactly the same. It still has the lines, which the lines are like the little dots like they had been. And then you've got like the little kind of page flag looking thing. But I love this because I don't know. I'm just not someone that uses this too often. And I like to see like the month moving forward versus like buying a sticker or whatever. And the font it looks like is exactly the same on everything. And the colors are just like a little bit more muted. This is like a little brighter than normal. These are just like a little bit more muted. And I'm down with that. All right. And then so looking at the first weekly spread, things are just slightly different as well. Okay. So if you can see the big differences are the actual time slots. And let me actually zoom you guys in just a little bit so you can see them a little bit better. And then let me pull this down. I hope you guys can see okay now. So here's the new one. Here's the old one. So the new one, when it's like 6 30. So right under the 6am the lines are very faint just like the previous year. And then on the hour, so right above 7am the dots are larger and they're bolder. So it kind of gives you more of that guideline without being like super aggressive. But in the old version, it just has the same dots all around and the same lines all around. And with this one, you have a little bit more definition which is nice. Let me zoom you back out now. Also the same as the last year's version is the dot box is still the same. And then you still have the checklist with the little circles. To be honest, I kind of hate the little circles, but I don't use my sidebar that often to really care. I know some people really like the circles and I'm just not down with it. But you know, to each their own, again, I like really plain things. And if I really wanted the circles, I feel like I could make a circle myself. But I know that that structure is really, really nice for some people. So moving right along as we go through, you have a little bit of the same coloration in the woven wonder pattern on the side, which I'm totally into. And I really like the colorful version. I know I went colorful last year and I was kind of like, oh, I don't know if I'll like the colorful and I really did like it. I feel like it's just enough color, but not too aggressive with the color. And I say that as I like turn to a bright pink page. Oh well. So anyway, now we're into February and here's the February notes page. And then also the February quote page. And then we're in to February as well. And then there we go.  So yeah, but then all of the months are exactly the same. And then they also have, you know, like the little thing at the end here. So let's get all the way to the back and then let's chat about some of the other changes. So at the very end of the planner in December are notes pages.  Oh my gosh, I got two of these too. This is so weird. Okay, whatever. I'll use it. But they both have like the little tabbies on them. I got two tabbed pages. This is so funny. Anyways, but anyway, I got a bunch of the lined pages as well as there are some dot grid pages. And then the elusive coloring pages, which drive me baddie, but whatever. It's fine. I'm not mad about it. I just won't use them. And then new for this year. And I think that this happened like they had contact pages a while back. I was watching Jen plans here on YouTube, I will link her channel down below if you guys want to check her out. She is a huge Aaron Condren fan just like I am. And she was talking about few years back before I ever got an Aaron Condren that there was like a contacts page. And she was so excited that they brought this back. So clearly in years past they had done this.  So you can put some information in there. I've heard some people are going to be using this for stuff in their home, like if they have a homeowners association or their mortgage company, or like people that service their home like a gardening service or an electrician or like, you know, just labor and things like that that they just want to keep track of. They're putting that in there as well as I've heard people doing this like for passwords or for kids school stuff like teacher contact information and the nurse information at the school and I don't know just like different things like that. And then on the next page over is looking into 2020. I absolutely love these pages because it's so easy to project new events that'll be coming up in the new year. Obviously 2019 has not started yet, but 2020 is knocking on the door anyways. But you know, how often do we get vacation scheduling information or wedding invites or things like that? Like little save the dates. It's kind of nice to just kind of like, okay, if I know in like July 2020 that friend of mine is getting married and it's out of town, I can kind of put that in and make a little note on the date or something like that just to kind of remember. So I can plan to not be here and arrange stuff for like me being gone for a while and all that stuff. But it's just kind of nice to kind of see it all like this. So when you move into your 2020 planner, things will get a little easier. I mean, that's at least the idea, right? And then also there's some boxes that says in the coming year. And then on the next page, it just says arriving at one goal is the start of another and it just has some information on Aaron Condren. Over here is some of the sticker pages that I'm very excited to see because I know that there's a new one in here. So I'm pumped about that. This is one that was in the planner last year and it has all the foil in there. So it's got the platinum foil, rose gold and gold. This is new for this year. Oh, this is cool.  And then some lists and checklists and all these other fun things. Oh, this one's new too. Nice. Okay. So this has just, it looks like more of a sampling of their other sticker sheets that they offer. I'm going to leave the Aaron Condren website below clearly, but there are a bunch of different sticker sheets that they do have now. This is just kind of a sampler of all of them, which is kind of nice.  So they're just like little event stickers, which is very, very nice. Ah, and then in the very back is always a little pocket folder. So this has the front pocket, which is the larger pocket of the two typically. Yep.  And then they always tend to include a perpetual calendar. I've had several of these. I've used a few of these in the past, but um, I know some people use them year to year and track birthdays and holidays and I don't know, things like that, but I don't know. I just can't get into it, but that's okay. I tend to always give this away to somebody. And the back cover is just like the front cover, where on the interior, it has the blue and kind of that light indigo color on the inside. And then on the backside, it has the woven wonder in the blue and color woven wonder pattern. All right. So that is it for my walkthrough of my 2019 Aaron Condren life planner in the colorful hourly version with the gold coil and the Luxe cover. I'm very excited about my cover. I'm also very excited to see how the cover holds up for a year. I'm not typically hard on my planners. However, I've only had the plastic snap in planners every year with the covers. So I'm not sure how it's going to go, but I'm excited to try it out and see how the wear is on this. So if you got an Aaron Condren planner or planning on getting an Aaron Condren planner for this upcoming season, so 2018, 2019, let me know in the comments down below which one you got and why you got it. You know, are you a colorful person? Are you a neutral person on the inside? Do you like the snap in covers? Do you change them out often? What's your favorite pattern for this year? Let me know. I'm really always curious to know what people get and why they get it. So again, that is it for me. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with me today. Make sure to give the video a thumbs up if you liked it. Feel free to subscribe for more fun videos and hit the little red notification bell, and I will see y'all in the next video. Bye guys. Well folks, it's time to kick it off school. So you can feel cool.


Seventh inning of a spring training game and Yachty still behind the dish. They walk Maldonado So now there's a base runner at first and they bring in the young gun Siri I don't think he's played a day in the MLB. He gives his gold chain to the first base coach He's on first and he's gonna try and steal against the catcher who set the record for opening day starts in a row last year And will break it himself this year. So Yachty says right away. You know what pitch Let's check on this rookie make sure he doesn't get ahead of himself over there Just because it's seventh inning of a spring training game doesn't mean I'm not coming for him Look at that calls for the outside fastball eyes him down says. Yeah. All right. I'll come your way Pitch is not where he wants it still goes for the pickoff almost get some sliding back to first now a series shaking It said no no no no no no no no no no you don't do that to me. No no no no no and Yachty goes Okay, steal then take off. Let's see what happens next pitch foul ball So nothing going then hi dude didn't run now. It's a 2-2 count Yachty calls for the changeup You know pitchers still got to work on things off speed pitch Nails him and now Yachty's saying you want to make eye contact. You're gonna look at me.  All right. Nice knowing you see you later. Hey woody nice pitch by the way called the change up Off-speed pitch. Look at this throw. Just an absolute thing of beauty dead. I wouldn't stand up and look at Yachty either


While legendary singer Cher has had homes across the globe, one place she kept coming back to was her Malibu, California mega mansion. In a surprising turn of events, Cher has decided to bid farewell to her cherished Malibu home after about 25 years of enjoying the idyllic beachfront property. Most recently hitting the market with a price tag of $75 million in March 2023. She custom designed this home from the ground up, modeling it after grand homes and palaces across Europe. While inside, you'll find seven bedrooms and eight bathrooms within its sprawling floor plan, as well as windows and balconies that overlook the ocean. Wunder?