This week on The Anxious Truth, we're talking about EMDR. EMDR is a type of therapy that's gotten very popular over the past couple of years. There's a lot of confusion around it, so let's address that today. Hello everybody, welcome back to The Anxious Truth. This is episode 269 of the podcast. We are recording in August of 2023 for those of you who are listening or watching in the future. I am Drew Lincellotta, creator and host of this podcast. The Anxious Truth is the podcast that covers all things anxiety, anxiety disorders, and anxiety recovery. So if you're struggling with things like panic attacks, agoraphobia, or health anxiety, or OCD, this is the place for you, and I'm happy that you're here. If you have just stumbled upon this YouTube channel or this podcast, and this is the first time you're here, I hope you find what we're doing useful in some way, and I hope you come back. If you are a returning viewer or listener, as always, welcome back, thank you for your continued support and attention, I appreciate it. And let's try to be helpful again this week like we try to be every week. This week we're gonna talk about EMDR. EMDR is a therapy that we hear a lot about, especially in the past few years. It's become more and more popular. It has tremendous application in what it was initially designed for, which was trauma recovery. There's a lot of really good evidence piling up in terms of how excellent it is a tool in that context. But there is a lot of confusion over whether or not it belongs or can be useful in the context of anxiety disorders like panic disorder, or agoraphobia, or OCD and health anxiety. Does it belong here? And if so, how would it be applied? And does it fix you without having to do the hard, scary things that nobody really wants to do? And I don't blame you for not wanting to do those. So I reached out to my therapist friend Anne Thomas and practices in Florida. She is trained by Andrea in the use of EMDR. She's using it in her clinical practice. She is a relatively new therapist. She's about a year and a half or two years ahead of me on this curve. But she does not have an agenda, and I trust her. So there are a ton of people who wanna come on this podcast and talk about EMDR, but every one of them has something to sell. Anne does not. She is a practicing therapist. If you're in Florida, I will give you ways at the end of the show to get in touch with her. Maybe she can be helpful to you, that would be great. But otherwise, Anne does not have an agenda one way or the other. She speaks my language. I trust what she says. She's a great therapist. And I asked her to come on and talk about EMDR and how she might apply it and not apply it in cases of anxiety disorders and how to have realistic expectations of where it might fit. And I think you're gonna find this conversation really interesting and helpful. I know I did. I learned a whole lot about this, and I learned about how EMDR could potentially be one tool in the toolkit as we address things like agoraphobia, for instance, in specific parts of recovery. So I will get Anne on in a minute. Before we do that, I just have a quick reminder. The anxious truth is more than just this video or this podcast episode. There's a ton of other goodies, many of which are free, some of which are not, but nonetheless, hopefully at low cost, like courses, workshops, and the three books I've written on anxiety and anxiety recovery. You can find all of that stuff at theanxistruth.com. That's my website. Go check it out and take advantage of all the things that I have to offer because I think it's all helpful. At least people tell me it is. So let's get Anne on. I will come back at the end of the interview to wrap up as always. I will give you links on where you can find Anne on social media and get in touch with her. So I hope you find it helpful. Let's go. Hey, Anne, what's going on? How are you? I'm good, I'm good. As promised, this is my friend Anne Thomas from sunny Florida who is a practicing, new but practicing EMDR specialist or EMDR therapist. And I trust Anne and knows what she's talking about. And I invited Anne here because she does not have a hidden agenda. There's no courses, there's no workshops, there's no coaching, there's no book about EMDR. It's just the training and the way you've been using it in your practice. Yes. Thank you for coming, I appreciate it. Thank you for inviting me. Yeah, so this is, EMDR is a hot topic in our community because there are so many mixed messages. We were talking a little bit before we went on the air and I think it's confusing for a lot of people. I have always seen EMDR represented primarily as a trauma resolution modality where it sort of helps people relive some of those experiences without getting too carried away, stay in the here and now, turn flashbacks and reoccurrences into memories, that sort of stuff. And I hear great things about it, it seems incredibly effective. But I also have people every day who are told that EMDR is also used to treat things like OCD, agoraphobia, health anxiety and panic disorder. And many times they find great success with EMDR going over and dealing with some past issues more on an emotional level than anything else, but they do not get help with their anxiety disorder. And then they get frustrated, sometimes they feel like they did it wrong or they're totally did it wrong. We have wide varieties and patients or clients and expectations and clinicians and approaches. So what the hell, what should we do with all that? Yeah, I mean, you're exactly right. It was initially created to help with PTSD symptomology. And then along the way, they started kind of developing it more to treat other psychiatric disorders, other somatic issues as well. It really rests on this adaptive information processing system and how our brain has a natural capacity to be able to heal itself essentially through bilateral stimulation. And of course, like you and I talked, there's some questions about how we can get it working with panic disorder and other anxiety disorders. Sure, sure. So the big concern generally is, and I cannot draw valid conclusions from feedback even with thousands of people, but it is significant feedback nonetheless. And that's why I reached out to Ann to talk about this because there was a discussion I was involved with on Friday with a fair number of people where this came up again. Like, oh, I tried EMDR and it didn't help at all. I feel like I spent money on nothing. And other people who said, oh, it really helped me with some other issues in my life. I loved it, but it didn't help me with my agoraphobia, for instance. And there's such a wide variety, but a lot of people are seeing it as this might be a way for me to go into a therapist's office, move my eyes back and forth and not have to do exposures and I'll be fixed. Is that realistic in your eyes? No pressure. No pressure. So if a client is coming to us with panic, right? We want to figure out what that belief is about this person's panic. This person might have this belief that I can't handle it. I'm not safe. I'm worthless. I'm weak. I'm broken. We want to be able to go into that negative belief using that bilateral stimulation and help them to strengthen the opposite positive belief. And we wanna make sure that those beliefs are accurate. So somebody who comes in with this belief of I'm weak, that's the negative belief. We want the opposite belief to be the opposite. We don't want it to be like, oh, okay, I can be relaxed. So we want to essentially locate this negative belief that this person experiencing panic has. I'll use the one that I talked about before. I'm weak. Or, and I know what let's use, I can't handle. I can't handle it. That's almost universal, right? All right, I can't handle this. Okay, so let's talk about how, so then this kind of, there's a whole preparation phase to even beginning EMDR, right? So first we identify this image. Okay, tell me the worst part of this previous thing that you experienced. Oh, well, it was when I noticed my heart rate shoot up. I noticed this feeling in my throat. I felt shaky. That was the worst part. Okay, so what is, how distressing? Zero to 10. They give you, oh my God, it was a 10. It was so, and I'm feeling it as a 10 right now. I'm totally distressed. I don't even wanna think about it. Okay, what's the negative belief? I can't handle it. I don't know if that was you or me. That was me, sorry. So then, okay, what emotions are coming up for you right now? Oh, I feel fearful. I feel disgusted with myself. I feel, you know, incapable. Dare I say that? I don't know. Okay, and what physical sensations are coming up for you? So you kind of have them go into a little bit of exposure when they're in their room with you. Sure. Or when they're in the room with you. Okay, let's focus on that feeling in your gut that's making you feel like nauseous or whatever. And then you have them identify how strongly the opposite positive belief is. How strong does I can handle it feel to you? It feels like a two. Yeah, probably one for most people right now. Okay, so I want you to hold that negative image of you experiencing this sudden burst of adrenaline. And I want you to hold that negative image in your head of I can't handle it. And I want you to follow this bilateral stimulation. And there's different methods of bilateral stimulation. So what I have seen in my clinical practice is that that belief of I can't handle it slowly transitions and slowly transitions and slowly transitions and transitions. And it gets lighter and lighter for the client and they start to gain a little bit more confidence. And it's not realistic that we will close a target in one session, especially for an adult because adults have so many additional feeder memories. Oh, well, this reminds me of another time when I was panicked and I, you know, smelled too much weed or whatever. Yeah. So it becomes very tricky and very sticky. And so when a client is searching for a practitioner to help with panic disorder, we wanna ensure that the practitioner is going through all of the steps that are necessary for EMDR to even implement it. Cause you can't just do it on the first session. It takes a whole, there's treatment planning, there's resourcing, there's a lot of stuff that needs to be done. Yeah. So then what we see is that the person then is more desensitized to these feelings. And then we install the positive belief, okay, I can handle it. Okay, so now I want you to hold that first image of when you started panicking and I want you to hold the positive words together. I can handle it. And I want your eyes to follow the bar or listen to the sound or the tapping or whatever. And so as clinicians, we are supposed to listen and make sure that the things that the client is saying are valid and that the positive cognitions feel strong enough. And if we look for a number, okay, well, how true does I can handle it feel now? Still feels like a two. Okay, all right, so we keep, we keep going. But then we even have to check in on that distress. How strongly, how strongly that 10 is still feeling. Okay, why is that 10 still a 10? Why hasn't that 10 gone down? Then we address the blocking belief. Oh, because I feel like I'll never get over this problem. This problem brings me shame. So there's a whole bunch that goes into it. I feel like I just took your question and just went off in the left field. No, this is really good. I think it's really good information to people to have. So they have an expectation of what it's gonna look like, I guess. I think one of the things that we're up, and we talked about this a little bit. There are so many different expectations for somebody who's struggling. We can both understand why you're really hoping that this is a thing where you go into the therapist's office, tap your shoulders, look at a light bar and don't, and boom, your panic stops and you're not afraid anymore. We get that, you have a right to want that. Everybody wants that, that's just human nature. And I think so, sometimes it's the expectation. So I love the way you're describing it and explaining it because it's not that. You're talking about a lot of work here. This is not a show-off, look at a light bar and suddenly you don't panic anymore. It's not that at all. Absolutely, and you and I both have, we've touched on before this, it's not the end-all-be-yall. And you're absolutely right. There is still a level of work that has to be put in. You have to be willing to sit in that clinical session and kind of notice those feelings and have faith in yourself that you're safe and that, yeah, so you're right. So how does that go from that clinical session in that place where hopefully you're with a therapist or a clinician you trust, which is great? Now it goes into the real world. So we were going over some real world things that people had relayed to me. So I went back to that spot where I had my first panic attack that I've been avoiding for three years. I went and I panicked and I ran and square one and it didn't work and I'm broken. And in some cases there's some conflict arises with the clinician because the person is hears. I'm not sure that they're necessarily told, I can only tell you what they interpreted, which was, I'm doing it wrong or clearly there's a deeper hidden trauma or memory or pain or belief that we haven't uncovered yet. But if we can get to that, they start to hang on again to the belief that like, oh, if I just keep going to these sessions and digging and digging and asking more questions that I will go and I won't panic and I won't be afraid. I'll be a regular person again without having to do any work in the actual world. Does that sound, again, no pressure here, but that's the expectation I think. I would agree that that could be a part of the expectation and that is why the, okay, so like full disclosure in our therapy sessions we have to say like, hey, this, you have to get that informed consent. Right, this might not work. Sure, yeah. But I think that this blocking, I use the blocking belief questionnaire a lot because the client will say things like, oh, it still hasn't gone all the way down. Okay, what is keeping it from going all the way down? I don't know, fear because I fear that it's gonna come back or... Well, what if I said, can I interrupt? What if I'm a client and I say, well, the fear itself, the feeling itself, it didn't go down, it was still there. Okay, what does that fear then say about you? What does it mean to be in fear? What does fear mean?  So that feels like you have no power over your ability to like stay where you are or like, what are you, help me, help me. Yeah, I know what I'm supposed to do. I'm supposed to stick with it and ride through it and learn that it doesn't hurt me, but it just seems impossible to do that. I get it when I'm sitting here with you, but it's impossible when I actually have to do it. I don't know how to do it. How do I do it? How do I sit through it? See, that's where that future template that I was talking about. Okay, let's picture yourself going over and being successful in this future spot where you feel that is impossible. Let's just imagine and use the bilateral simulation to imagine you accomplishing this and conquering this. Okay. Let's do that and then we do the bilateral simulation and then we get Brenda involved. Ann named her EMDR light bar Brenda and I could not love that anymore. Just saying. So here's where, and by the way, for the record and Ann is a friend of mine and I trust her and this is why I asked her to come on and talk about this. I'm not putting Ann on trial or EMDR on trial. It is good stuff in the right context. I believe that already. And I love how you can use it to maybe address some of those limiting beliefs. I'm weak, I can't handle these things, I can't possibly do that. I love that you can use it to help those obstacles.  So then I hear. I'll never see it again. Okay, this is good, this is good. You are, that you believe that you are broken. No, I know I'm not broken. I get it, I understand the theory. I've read all the books. I've listened to all the podcasts. But when I'm in the real world, I'm afraid and I don't know how to not be afraid. I don't know how to sit through that. And are you telling me that if I just keep looking at Brenda the light bar, I won't be afraid anymore and I won't have to do that? But it doesn't take away the fear, right? It desensitizes it a little bit, it dampens it. So the fear is still there. However, we want that positive cognition and that belief to feel stronger than the negative belief, yeah? Yeah, you see how realistic this is. This is why I love these conversations sometimes. And I hope that it's easy for you guys to follow if you're listening or watching. This can be confusing and these are, there's no black or white, black and white answer to this. But what you just described seems so accessible now as somebody who might have a gorophobia panic disorder. I don't know if we would use it with OCD, health anxiety, whatever. That positive cognition, at least we're gonna give it a better chance. We're gonna give it a leg up. We're gonna give that positive belief a little bit of a leg up and we're gonna try and bring the negative belief down a little bit to give you a more of a fighting chance to work through that in the real world. I like that you just put that to a point. Does that sound like, and again, you're the trained one, I am not. I'm gonna keep telling you that. But in the end, that seems like a more realistic expectation. If you're struggling with panic disorder and people keep telling you to try MDR, that seems a little bit more realistic. Oh yeah, it's a tool we can bring into the process. Doesn't fix you looking at a life bar isn't gonna fix you, but it might help you do these hard things. Yes. Am I being accurate here? You can tell me I'm not. I'm all right with that. And also, I don't know, remember I brought up the Disney, the metaphor, what the heck was it, was the elephants? I have to go back and look through our text messages. Yeah. Something like that, but it's essentially a person, but I read this analogy and it made perfect sense to me. But it was like Dumbo, you know, Dumbo doesn't think he can fly and then he has this like magic feather and then all of a sudden the magic feather goes away and he realizes, oh, I can fly. Like I can do this on my own. Yep. The life bar's the magic feather. Yeah, there you go. So it can help with the belief, because I am 100% on board with the idea that those beliefs can be big obstacles. Nope, I'm not, and I hear it all the time. Well, you're strong Drew, you did it. You're strong, I'm not strong. You're brave, I'm not brave. Like no, no, I was scared too, like we're all scared. Yeah, so I love that, I love that. That seems like a really good use of this tool. And again, I'm not here to, you don't need my validation, I'm not here to give my stamp of approval on EMDR. Just trying to help people work through how it would fit into this problem. Well, you have such an art where you are able to put things into such plain words where I'm like fumbling for the clinical ways to put things, and you can just articulate yourself so much better than I can. Oh, no, you're doing fine, I think you're doing great. But yes, exactly how you put it, it is this tool, it's a tool, right? Yeah, okay, unfortunately, and again, I know I always sound like a broken record, like there's real world hard work to do, maybe this would make it a little less hard, and if it did, that would be great. But so maybe the big controversy, at least in my community, I won't say ours, it's a large community, maybe it's indicative or representative, the confusion or the debate over EMDR, because whenever EMDR comes up in my world, I get one or two things. Either I don't even know what that is, which is fair. And will it fix me? Okay, that's fair too, second part. Or I get, well, I did it and it really helped me with some things, I loved it, I had a great therapist, it was really excellent, but it didn't really help me with my panic attacks or my OCD or my or agoraphobia, for instance. Or I did it and it did nothing and I feel like I was taken advantage of and made to believe that I was doing it wrong. And you know, listen, there are bad clinicians, there's bad people in every profession. So those are the three things that I hear that I don't know what it is, it was helpful but not for this, or it didn't help me at all. So I guess if nothing were to try to clarify maybe expectations or what it might be. Well, I was kind of gonna go into ensuring that the clinician is... Oh yeah, the training, let's talk about that. Following protocols, yeah. So EMDR has steps to it, right? There's, we, I don't, I never get into EMDR in a first session, sometimes not even by a third session because there's so much treatment planning that goes into it. There's informed consent, you have to explain what the EMDR is, you have to explain the model, you have to explain the mechanics, you have to go through the phases, you know, client history preparation, preparation phase includes like that calm safe place that you and I, I don't know if we talked about that. Yeah, I was off camera, but yeah. Yes, yes, yes. So there's a lot that goes into it. People want to ensure that their clinician is Emdria trained. They are the leader of EMDR, right? That provides the training.  There's so much that goes into it. So they want to make sure that the person is EMDR trained. I have also heard about EMDR stories. And we want to make sure that there's, that the clinician is resourcing, that the clinician is accurately aiding the client and identifying the belief. I think I talked about that. So there's so much that goes into it. I encourage your followers to ensure that their person is Emdria trained. Emdria is. Because a little bit of people. EMDRIA, right? Yes, yes. I'll put a link in the show notes for this. Yes, and people will also think that just because they are trained in EMDR is that they are certified. I am not certified in EMDR. That's a whole other additional certificate. That's a whole other thing. I am trained in it. So I can say that, I can practice it. Yeah. And this is not, this was not like a three-day weekend where you went to the Marriott and learned. It was months, months and months. Month, it was four months. It was intensive. There was consultation hours. There was so much practice. And we had to practice using our arms in session. You can't see my arm, but we had to sit there and go for it. If you're watching on YouTube, you can see Ann's arm. Or this. She's miming a light bar. It's very good. Yeah. Awesome, okay. So this makes a lot of sense. And I think like anything else, this is the thing we were talking about before we hit the record button, always beware of this fixes everything. Right? So that's something I say all the time. Like I'm a big fan of things like act, but act is inappropriate in every circumstance. It's just not. We would never push any kind of modality or treatment for every possible thing. So just beware of like, this is a panacea, it fixes everything. We're gonna apply it to everything. That's all. You know. Yeah. And you know, being an educated consumer and knowing as much as you can know about what you're getting into is always a good thing. And having realistic expectations. Absolutely. Yeah. We haven't come up with a thing yet. I love how you talk about informed consent as a really important part of being in a condition because especially with EMDR, you are going to elicit some distress in that room. And people have a right to know. Like you're gonna feel bad here when we do this. And we like to use the analogy of like a car going up a hill, right? So like, if you're feeling the distress and the car is going up the hill, we don't wanna stop, right? And we wanna keep going. We wanna keep going. We wanna keep going. We wanna go through it. That's kind of how I like to explain EMDR in my sessions as well. Like you're gonna feel some stuff, but we gotta push, we gotta go. Very good. What else you got? Anything else you wanna add about EMDR while we're on it? We're only about 20 minutes in, but that's great. Cause I think we did a good job so far. Listen to me pump up my podcast. I didn't touch on the blocking beliefs. I pulled it up. We were in the middle of kind of getting ready to catch it, but some of them, I'm trying to see what is on here that could potentially be a blocking belief that somebody who has panic disorder might have. One, I am embarrassed that I have this problem. Ooh, good. That's a good one. Yeah. I'm not sure, well, I will never get over this problem. Oh, that one every day. Every single day. What if I never get better? Oh yes, absolutely. Let me see. I say I want to solve this problem, but I never do. Yeah, that's another one. Someone in my life hates this problem. Okay. Problem is bigger than I am. I don't deserve to get over this problem. That's another one that people don't talk about enough. I've had this problem for so long I could never completely solve it. It's too late. Yep. Yeah, yeah. So there are some ones there that definitely pertain to... Those are so accurate. I mean, again, I've had the privilege of hearing from thousands of people. So that tells me that these are blocking beliefs that would be targeted directly toward panic disorder, for instance. Is that what you're talking about? Yeah, like if the client were to come in, I would be experiencing panic. I would be like, okay, there's a block here. Let's figure it out. And it's always a collaborative effort, right? You never want to shame the client. Be like, what is it that you're doing wrong here? Sure, sure. Do any of you seem accurate to you? Yeah, they all, every one of those. Listen, what I love about that, and I've never heard of this before, right? So I don't know enough about EMDR. You're teaching me here, which is great. Those blocking beliefs, so now I'm a client with panic disorder. I'm struggling to make some progress. And now you're going to look for blocking beliefs that have been manualized in a way as part of EMDR. Look for these blocking beliefs if you're dealing with a client with panic disorder.  Those were dead on accurate. I don't deserve to get better. It's been too long, so therefore I can't get better now. I have nobody, nobody believes in me and they hate this and I'm ruining everybody's life with this. Or I'm just too weak, I can't do it and what if I never get better?   Without having EMDR, just to even assess the belief itself without wanting to use EMDR. But that was written by Jim Nipe. Dr. Jim Nipe, PhD, he wrote the EMDR toolbox, I think is what it's called. And it's a lot of interventions. They suggest to have one intervention and then implement it and get really good at implementing it and implementing it. And then implement it. Which makes sense. It seems like such a sensible. That's so sensible, that's crazy talk. But, and again, I think keep in mind if this is a thing you want to, you listening to the podcast or watching on YouTube today and you wanted to look into this or maybe you're working with a clinician that's offered EMDR as an option. Just understand again, like that would be a great way to maybe address some of those underlying beliefs. And I've talked about it in podcast episodes. Josh and I have talked about it on Disordered. Maybe that's a way to help you start to tear down those underlying beliefs. That's great. I love that. Because identifying them is the first thing, noticing that they're there. Oh, I'm noticing what I'm having.  It doesn't work that way. Unfortunately. The client is the expert. The client is the captain. I'm the co-captain. I'm here to help just a little bit. And Herschel is also here to help just a little bit. Oh, it's Herschel the therapy dog. Herschel's awesome. He comes to work with you. He is an actual therapy dog, right? He is. He is. He is a registered therapy dog. He's an online therapy dog. Herschel even has his own page on Ann's practice. It's not Ann's practice, but the practice she works in. They even have Herschel has her own page his own page in the bios, staff bios. Anyway, thank you so much, my friend. This was really good. We were struggling to see how we were going to talk about this. And I appreciate you did a great job. Likewise. And yeah, I'm here for it. Very good. So I will come back as always in the end. And by the way, Ann Thomas, how you are sit with Ann on Instagram. But if you want to find Ann or whatever, I will put her in the show notes. If you're watching on YouTube, I'll put Ann's links on the description. If you're listening to the podcast, just go to theanxestreet.com slash 269 and I'll put all the links. We talked about Andrea. I'll send you over to Ann. So you can check her out on Instagram. If you have questions, put them in the YouTube comments. We'll all drag Ann back in. We'll try to answer them if we can. We'll push it out some more. I'll come back as I usually you to wrap it up. But thank you so much. You're welcome back here anytime. Thank you, Drew. All right, see you later. Alrighty, we are back in the studio. I'm never gonna get tired of making that joke because the studio was just me at the same desk, just without Ann next to me. And anyway, just here to wrap it up as I usually do. I really enjoy doing that interview. I am very thankful for Ann for taking the time. That was short notice too. We figured that we decided to do this this morning. So I'm grateful for her time and being so flexible and helping us out with this. I learned a lot about EMDR today. And I actually am surprised to find that I can see where it may have as we talked about in the interview, some applications in some parts of recovery in the problems that we are always addressing together. As always, I appreciate that Ann brought a common sense approach to this without over-promising or declaring that EMDR is a fix or treats everything. And I think that's the most important part here. I do like how she talked about making sure that your clinician is properly trained and that they are using the tool correctly. That was really great. Again, not over-promising. And again, she didn't have an agenda, which is why I asked her on here. So I got stuff out of this. And maybe if you're hoping that EMDR might work for you in some way in your recovery, hopefully you got something out of this too. That's why we do this. Anyway, that's about it. That is episode 269 of the Anxious Truth in the books. Of course, if you wanna get to Ann, you can find her on Instagram. She is sitwithann, a-n-e, that's all one word. I will put her links in the description of this video. If you're on YouTube, I will put them in the show notes for this podcast episode. You go to the anxioustruth.com slash 269. So if you wanna reach out to Ann and follow her on social, you welcome to do that. She's really good. And that is it. I'm going to ask you the same favors that I ask you every week. You're probably tired of them at this point. That would be if you are listening to this podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or some platform that lets you rate or review the podcast, why not leave a five-star rating if you really like it? And if you really like it, maybe take a second and write a review because that helps even more people find this podcast and then more people get help. Of course, if you're watching on YouTube, like the video, hit the notification bell, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment or a question. I will drag Ann back in here to answer questions if we can down the road. And yeah, that's it. We'll be back next week with another podcast episode. Not sure what I'm gonna talk about next week, but I will be here and just remember that no matter how small the step is that you take toward your recovery today, no matter how insignificant you may think it is, it counts. They all count and they add up. See you next week. Thanks for coming by.


I don't care if they have a PhD. I've never seen an exception to this rule. Not one, ever. The only time I see exceptions is top entrepreneurs that I know, that are like, you wanna start a business together. Those guys get it, because that's why they're made a hundred million bucks. Anybody else is lost. The world doesn't teach them this. Has anybody here gone through a school system ever heard this conversation about mental leaching, energy drains, glucose conservation of the brain, zero. The older I get, the more I learn, the more I rage against the system. It's even worse than I thought. So what you have to do with Parkinson's syndrome, is you have to automatically assume people are gonna be mentally lazy.  They're not gonna literally be lazy. They're just gonna go way slower than they should. They're gonna do the job, but then it'll be messed up, and you have to talk to them ten times a row. Can you fix it? Can you fix it? Can you fix it? They won't see the big picture. They won't be creative.


Collective behavior and social movements have been instrumental in engineering social change, including regime change and impacting the policy space in many societies. So in fact in the past 200 years, they have become a part of the popular and global expression of dissent. The political class, supported by elite groups and state institutions, most times does not concede to popular demands until some form of public agitation and witnessed by the society. So the collective behavior means when the majority of the people or if not the majority, some countable number of the people, they think alike and they try to change the existing social pattern. Then they try to initiate some kind of movement. It can be agitational, it can be in the shape of the protest. So therefore the social researchers have contemplated the rationale behind social change to social statics. The political process theory emphasizes the existence of political opportunities as essential to the formation of social movements. Those philosophers who believe in political process theory have the perspective that when there are political opportunities, if political opportunities are available, i.e. such a gunjai or a margin system exists, then definitely they can formulate a social movement. If there is such a chance, then definitely people can run the movement together. Now what does opportunity mean? Opportunity means that if people are against a policy, they are not satisfied with a policy or they want some reforms in the existing setup, then definitely people want to introduce some kind of change. Then they come together and they try to launch a movement. According to this theory, the three vital elements of movement formation are insurgent, consciousness, collective sense of injustice. If people think that they are not getting justice, that justice is not happening with them, now this clearly means that they can be on the educational basis, political representation, or they think that overall they are not getting the right position in the society. Then definitely another important thing is the organizational strength. In leadership and resources, or if a group thinks that their leader is so strong, their organization is so strong that whenever someone can run a movement against an existing setup, then these movements are run. Then another important thing is that political opportunities. If there are some gaps in the existing political system, then even after taking advantage of those gaps, while availing political opportunities, collectively some movements can be run. So we can say that fundamentally, this theory contains two things. One is that the focus of this movement is not to focus on the movement, but rather to highlight the factors of the movement. What can be the reasons that people can go towards the protest, or can run the movement. So especially to say that the timing, they ignored the timing of the movement. Because any movement cannot be successful at that time. If it is not launched at the appropriate time, that is, for social change, if you have to do the march, then the most important thing is that the most important time factor is that the time is so important that people can be brought together. Then definitely political opportunities. This can be said about political opportunity. If today the government has taken a step, then that political opportunity can also end. Then because we had seen three basic factors, that insurgents can also be there, organizational strength can also be there, leadership can also be there. So this can be said that this, then we will have to see that the most important role of the movement is its participation. Another model is the political mediation model. The important thing is to see that what strategies are there to run the movement and what choices are available for it. That is, if you do not run the march, if you have to run the march, then what will happen to it? If you have to run the march, then there are the links to the march which are to be run to achieve it. That is, in the concept of collective behavior and social movements, we have to see what the march is running, what are the marches of the march, what are the marches of the march. If all these are on one line, then definitely chances of social change become more.


When you look at the pitching pool for Monday night's MLB DFS slate You're gonna see Shohei Otani at the top facing Colorado and think it's gonna be this super easy slate Where we know to do a pitcher and I would love to come on here and say not so fast We've got some other guys to consider for today. Maybe it's not Otani as a top option. The problem is I Can't do that because I feel like it really is just as obvious as it seems With Shohei Otani being the top guy for tonight So we will talk about some other options that pitcher but it's basically gonna be all about Otani And then our goal for the stacks will be to identify players and teams that can help us afford his salary at $11,000. Let's do that right now for today. Welcome on into the solo shop That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com here to break down Monday's seven game of main slate with lockset for 705 for tonight and thankfully no weather in the forecast for today There is some wind out at Target Field for the twins and the Tigers But that is the one thing for today should be a pretty clean slave may a weather perspective So all good to go for tonight. Do not forget once again that we are back here once again 4 p.m. Eastern the fandal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages swing by there to take your questions about tonight's sleigh with repitching Stacks one off one off NLB DFS process We are there the fandal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages for p.m. Eastern each and every weekday Also this week on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed the PGA is Not an action this week. We do the Olympics We're gonna talk about the men's Olympics contest myself and Brandon Gadoula my DFS perspective that is tomorrow 10 a.m. On YouTube and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So make sure you're subscribed there, but also check us out And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review Hey baseball fans we're getting close to the trade deadline and all these teams back in action fangirl is giving you a Chance to win while watching your favorite teams All you have to do is place a five plus leg Parley on an MLB game If you hit all legs except for one you get up to twenty five dollars back in psych credit all games up until July Up until the end of July or are eligible with a twenty five dollar max psych credit Head over to the fandom of sportsbook today and create your very own MLB Parley must be 21 plus and present Colorado Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia max psych credit twenty five dollars Restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.fanduo.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in Colorado 105 2 2 4700 and Iowa 100 bets off in Indiana 109 with it for confidential help Michigan 1 800 270 7 1 1 7 in Tennessee called the red line 188 9 9 7 8 9 or West Virginia 1 800 gambler net Pitching preview for this Monday main slate show hey, Otani Obviously the top option for tonight He checks in at eleven thousand dollars on Fandali's facing over there Mon Marquez and Marquez actually second in salary at ten two with at least Garcia facing the Mariners at ten thousand Wade Miley is ninety six hundred dollars Then Kyle Hendricks is eighty seven hundred dollars and the only other pitcher at eight thousand dollars or higher and with Otani It's obvious. He's an elite matchup I'm not going to turn him down here even at eleven thousand and as much as I would love to give you alternatives I can't I can't put anyone else in his tier for tonight. He's facing the Rockies They have a 70 WRC plus against righties, but that's overall, but they have been especially terrible on the road this year So the 70 mark may actually undersell how bad this offense is and that's the worst mark on the slate by 21 percentage points. So It's the best matchup you can have and it seems like Otani shocker can take advantage of that He's been changing things up recently. He's been throwing fewer splitters and more sliders over his past five starts Which could be a concern, but he has not had any issues thus far He has a three point nine one skill interactive era with a twenty six percent strikeout rate And that's despite having a lot of tough matchups because three point nine one skill interactive era 26% strikeout rate or not like elite but part of it's due to matchups He faced Boston Oakland another team and they're all top 11 in WRC plus versus righties This time it's a lot easier facing the Rockies Otani is going deep enough in games as well because he's gone six plus innings in all but one game in that stretch He went more than 100 pitches once hit 96 his last time out. So it doesn't seem like there have been Super long-lasting effects from the all-star break It seems like there is enough here to feel good about him and the matchup does the rest So yes, it's costly and yes, he will be very popular for tonight, but he should be so I think that show Hey, Otani has to be number one on this slate. I think he's in a tier of his own There is another guy who I think is like kind of viable, but I do think that Otani to me the no brainer topic I'd love to be contrarian. I'd love to you know go out in a limb and say go somewhere else But I can't it's just Otani as the number one option for today Now at least Garcia is not as good on the road as he is in Houston and that does limit him a bit here tonight That's why I can't put him quite in the Otani tier But he does have a good matchup and he's not terrible on the road. He does get down great He's not terrible. So I think that at least Garcia is the number two option behind Otani for tonight And I am very willing to use Garcia. I just can't dub him as being the top guy above Otani We've been seeing a lot of pitchers taking steps back recently whether it be to Fatigue sticky stuff, whatever it may be, but Garcia has been getting a bit more interesting The velocity is up a decent amount for him over his past five starts and he has been Outstanding in that time. He has a 3.59 skill interactive ERA with a 30% strikeout Right and both those numbers are better than Otani in his respected departments We did see Garcia get eight strikeouts twice and seven in another in this time So that's very good The lone problem is that just one of those two star or those five starts came on the road He was fine that start. He led up two runs across six innings, but And that was against choice. He's been playing good baseball recently They've been better than the Mariners offense. So he will face tonight They have a 91 WRC plus and a 26% strikeout rate It is also the best park factor for pitching on the slate So yeah, I do downgrade Garcia when he's on the road relative to when he's at home Most pitchers in Houston have a bit more extreme home road splits because strikeouts get a bump in Houston So I do downgrade him It still feels like he should be second on this list behind Otani But I would put him like a tier behind Otani. It's not like a two-tier thing But it's like, you know, I feel very good about Otani and then I would put Garcia second for tonight So it's a tiny one in a tier Garcia second and my Marquez Woodrank third for me, but he's in the upper register from a salary perspective So I think that for me if I'm looking at things realistically I would say I just want to use those three Otani Garcia and then maybe Marquez is being like the third guy Nobody else on this slate moves needle for me I want to keep it to those three for me personally But we just run through a value play here on the solo shots if you forced me to pick someone else I would go Dallas Keichel though I want to be clear and transparent that I won't be using him tonight unless we get absolute Calamity with scratches later on the reason I would go to Keichel as the top real world For the top value play for tonight is that he's the best real-world pitcher on this slate He's gone back to his cutter over his past eight starts the fly ball rate is 29 percent ERA 3.80 and that's with some tough matchups in that time and he's overcome those tough matchups He had eight strikeouts against the Blue Jays he had six against the Twins before they traded Nelson Cruz So that was a tough matchup He had five against the Rays these days in the Royals tonight not a good team versus lefties They have a 94 WRC plus versus lefties with a 154 ISO They don't walk all that much and that's why I think that Keichel could pitch well here And that's why I would rank him highest among the non elite options for today I won't use him because I don't think he has a strikeout upside So take that how you will if your process is to spend out a pitcher Keichel is your best option down there my Process is to maximize the expected points from that position because I it's more predictable I can find Upside more easily and lower salary hitters so to me I want to maximize pitching points and Keichel won't do that for me So play this how you will but that's my thoughts on it where to me my pitching pool tonight will be Otani Followed by Garcia followed by Marques and that's likely gonna be it for me So Keichel's the top value, but not a guy personally want to use for today So with that said let's move now to stacks and because I am so high on Otani We get to focus a lot on Identifying teams we can stack that will still allow us to use Otani at $11,000 for tonight Weirdly enough the Astros actually do fit in this discussion. They still have your Don Alvarez Jose Altuve and Kyle Pucker at $3600 or higher, but The rest of the guys here are pretty low salary and you can stack them on an Otani slate And I would like to do so for tonight. They are facing Darren mckacken He is making his second big league appearance and the first one did go pretty well for mckacken He allowed just one run in five innings, but the underlying numbers were a bit more troubling there He had no strikeouts compared to three walks that happened in Colorado So it was a tougher environment, but it also means he was facing the Rockies lineups I'd else now yes face the Astros a little bit different than the Rockies in triple a mckacken had a 19% strikeout rates But a 5% walk rate, which means he projects to let up a lot of balls in play Not an overwhelming ground ball right from either triple a so You look put it all together He has a kind of profile we want to stack against where he's gonna let up a lot of balls in play not be a big Groundball guy and that's what we want and it happens to be against a team that we do want to stack for today So I think the Astros are the top option on the board and the value should be there to help you get to Otani because Abraham Toro is twenty three hundred dollars. They're probably at seventh Carlos Correa So the two thirty five ISO against righties is twenty nine hundred dollars. He is in a pretty massive slump But he's still making hard contact He's striking out too much. So like that is an actual legit concern with Correa right now, but Mckacken not a big strikeout guy I think that Correa will snap out of this this cold streak soon And I would not be shocked if it's tonight against a lower strikeout guy So I'd plug in Toro and Correa and then potentially Michael Brantley or Yuli Gouriel prefer Brantley between the two and You should have enough salary to get in at least one of the high-upside guys there between Tucker I'll Pube and Alvarez. I think you can get at least one of them in there If you use those value plays and I think that's the way I want to play things for tonight use using those value plays on the Astros in order to get one stud and use Otani as my pitcher as far as the second stack, it's a Interesting one if you listen to the solo shot this year because I've actually used Mike Minor in DFS I think two or two or three times potentially this year and it was a while ago admittedly and Things have not been going as well for him recently So I think we can stack against him tonight with the White Sox minor seems to have been impacted by the sticky stuff discussion His strikeout started to decline back on June 15th, which is a couple weeks after it was first known This was coming and he hasn't really rebounded since he's let up a lot of earn runs in this time And it does seem like he's tinkering because minor has been lowering the usage on his changeup over his pass for starts It's not working his skill interactive era is 5.2 mate with a 15% strikeout rates He's led up a 42% hard hit rate with a 44% fly ball rate now It hasn't led to a ton of dingers yet He has not let a multiple home runs in the game since June 5th But the building blocks are there fly balls hard contact low strikeout rates plenty of barrels That's That's what we want to look for Hasn't led to home runs yet, but I think that it will in the very near future And that's not a recipe that will work very well against a White Sox team that absolutely thumps lefties So I feel pretty good about them here despite the fact that minor is not like a An obvious guy I want to stack against but I do think that the White Sox Make a lot of sense and it helps we can get to them with Eloy Jimenez coming off the IL for today Now I will mention Jimenez in his triple A stint didn't show a lot of power So Jimenez himself might not be a guy I flocked to necessarily right away I'm interested and we'll use him But he might not be at the top of my stacking list for today My hope is that with Jimenez coming back We still get Adam Engel somewhere in the lineup because Andrew Vaughn Engel or the two like value plays here for trying to get to Otani both those guys $2,800 are lower Vaughn has a 316 ISO against lefties Engel is a small sample guy, but he's it for some power And I think that there is enough there to expect it to continue So we can stack those guys with the Tony and I would like to do so Vaughn and Engel the keys to making it work So hopefully when Jimenez comes back They have Engel play the outfield maybe give Brian good when the day offers is a lefty Because I do think that Engel makes a lot of sense here and he has a value play who can make it easier to Get to Otani so check the lineup once it's out be excited about who men is coming back But then you know hopefully we do get to use Vaughn and Engel as being value plays for today As far as our third stack the Red Sox are pretty similar to the Astros and honestly like they're similar to the White Sox too We have the studs we have Jose Abreu Tim Anderson. We have Jose Otube we've got JD Martinez here Raphael Devers Etc. Etc. The studs super high salary, but there are some mid-range and value plays of both And I think the overall teams are good enough and the value plays are good enough We can stack those teams and go with Otani leaning on the value here The Red Sox do have that value do it those mid-range guys and I want to roll them out here Against Thomas Hatch Hatch is making his first start of 2021 in the big leagues he's been very good in triple a 2.15 era The problem is that the advanced numbers are Not as glowing as a 2.15 era would suggest He has just a 4.88 x-fip down in triple a with a 24 percent strikeout rates and a 10 percent walk rates That's not necessarily dominant stuff a lot of times when guys outperform their expected numbers outside of it Just being a small sample is that it'll be due to bad at balls where there'll be an outline in the bad of all department and It's possible Hatch is getting a lot of weak contact because his ground ball rate is 49% that is kind of high So that's why the Red Sox are third on the stacking list as opposed to second for example I wanted the White Sox above them in part because of that reason not a ton of film on Hatch although he was in the big leagues last year, but He will likely let up falls in play and the Red Sox has some boppers So I think we can be into them here despite the fact that it's not a perfect stacking profile Due to the potential for Hatch to be a guy who does excel in the bad at ball department now stacking the Red Sox means we get to use Jaren Duran, which is pretty fun to me We don't have an example on him yet, but he at least doesn't look overwhelmed That's what I want to look at in a small sample of the guy coming to the big leagues is Are they getting worked at the plate the strike area for Duran is 29% It is a bit high, but it's not a massive red flag It's in line with what you would have expected based on his triple A numbers and he's hitting the ball hard of the 13 balls in play He has had seven of those have been hard hit so an exit velocity of 95 plus miles per hour And that makes sense to given all the power he showed in triple A given He was kind of a high-strike out guy there too. He's $2,600. That's a value play Alex Vardugo has slid back a bit this month with less power But not a big deviation from where he was before I would say Hunter Renfro is a priority above above Vardugo. He's $3,100. No concerns of his power So I would say the Red Sox are similar to the Astros where you build around the value plays like Duran Kind of Renfro and then maybe the Vardugo in order to get to at least one stud Potentially two while using Otani as your pitchers. So all three of those teams I think should work when you are using Otani a pitcher for today Let's move now to things to watch talk about one more pitcher I would typically be in on Joe Ross for tonight, but I have no idea what the pitch count will be He's coming off the aisle. He had a couple of bullpen sessions, but did not make a rehab start This is the first hour for Joe Ross since July 4th So it's not a super long layoff, but it's an elbow injury and it's still three weeks since he last pitched So if I were projecting a pitch count for Ross, I Mean, this is a big range, but it'd be somewhere between 60 to 80 pitches tonight That's a wide range and the top end is is not enough for me for DFS So hopefully Ross goes long enough where we can use him next time out in stacks I love Joe Ross. He was pitching so well before I love you back here But for tonight he is a no fly zone due to pitch count The twins did lose a lot of pop with the Nelson Cruz trade and with Alex Kiriloff going on the aisle But I'm not Against stacking the leftovers here against Matt Manning. Manning was really good last time out But he sells a 5.49 skill interactive ER right over his past four outings He has an 11% strikeout right in that time So letting up a lot of balls and play so I think the twins make sense both for one-offs or for stacking Mitch Garver Specifically is $2,500 just came off the paternity list He has hit for a ton of power versus righties this year So I'm very good to load up on Garver when trying to save salary whether a catcher slash first base or at utility for tonight Finally Spencer Howard is making another start for the Phillies today.  Hopefully the home run derby has helped him unlock that power swing once again It's been great. Howard does let up impactful contact me.  So all of the boring options. I do think that one Soto is a pretty solid one for today As far as the fun ones I want to go back to the White Sox and go with Andrew Vaughn once again a very different hitter versus Lefties as opposed to righties Just a lot more power He's kind of like Uli-Guriel in that sense where don't really want to go there against righties But very very very in on him against lefties. He gets that today in Mike Minor So home run calls for today will be one so to an Andrew Vaughn as always get your dinger calls in Later on during the MLB Q&A that's on the Fando YouTube, Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages Swing by there for P&E sometime today YouTube, Twitch Facebook Twitter and get those dinger calls in but also ask your questions about tonight's slate Don't forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you have any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fando podcast network at Fando podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. I hope you had a fantastic weekend. Good luck tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fando podcast network


Let's take another look at the flick. Hey everyone, Dylan Schumacher, Citadel Defense, and we're back with another edition of American Minuteman Gear, and we're going to talk about the flick here, the Fighting Load Carrier, the FLC. Now, I did a video on this before specifically talking about the flick as give away kit and being equipped to give away to people, and I still think it is a big winner when it comes to that role. However, I think that there are some limitations to it and there's a reason I personally am not going to run it as my main rig, so let's talk about that. So again, I would just like to start out by saying I think the flick is a completely viable setup. I think it's a good idea. I think it carries load extremely well, extremely even. I mean, I have nothing in here right now because I'm going to put this in my storage bin, but I think that you can carry eight mags up front. I've got a dump pouch on here. I've got a GP slash med pouch here. I had medical on here. I took that off.  And then I also have two water canteen pouches on here. So you can load this thing up really well. It carries load super even, super well, and I think it does a really good job there. When you take the butt pack off, it's pretty compatible with a ruck or a pack and I really had no issues there even with the water bottle pouches on it. So I think that's another win where I could wear it over armor. I could wear it in a vehicle. Again, no butt pack. I could have it compatible with a ruck.  But there are definitely options and it definitely feels a variety of needs. On top of that, it's extremely affordable. You can find these on eBay and you can find pouches and stuff and you can dye this sucker and you can make it extremely, extremely doable. So if you're at all looking for kit on a budget, I would probably point you towards the flick and I think you're going to have a lot of success there. So what's the limitation and why for me is it not going to be the winner? And I think the reason is twofold. One, it does carry the load super even, right? But the water bottle pouches are harder to access and if that's your main water source, right, like you're not wearing a bladder or anything else, you know, it's just tough to get back here and get those out. So we're stopped, we're on a halt. I want to take some drink of water. It's tough to do that. Now you could say, well, hey Dylan, you know, bump the water forward.  Fix your setup. And I think there could be some arguments to be made there. However, for me, the purpose of fighting load carriers or any kind of, you know, harness gear here that we're carrying stuff with is ammo, right? That's the very first thing I need. That's what I'm there to do. I'm there to fight. So that's always going to have my primary placement. Usually behind that is medical and then behind that is you use sustainment. Water tends to fall into sustainment. That's how I think through my kit, you might be different. But that's, for me, the ranking of priorities. And so therefore that's why water gets put where it is and that just is what it is. Now I did test fit. I didn't actually like fill it up and go run it or anything. So take it with a grain of salt. But I did test fit fitting like a three liter bladder in the butt pack, okay? And you could just run the hose over. And so that might be an option to make water a little bit more accessible.  And that only really becomes an issue in like the winter, in the summer.  I'm a big fan of bladders. I think it makes drinking water much more accessible than water bottles. So I always prefer a bladder over a water bottle when I can. So that is one, just accessibility to water which is something I need fairly often. It's the highest priority of sustainment gear, right? And just getting it in and out is just kind of frustrating. So I'm gonna move away from it for that. The other thing, and because if I wanted to get it myself, right I have to unclip the whole rig. I have to set it down. I have to pull up my water bottle.  I can grab my water by myself and it's much easier without taking off my whole fighting load. The second big reason of why the flick is not for me is that I think the flick shines and I think it does best when it's set up like this.  This is all you run.  You're not gonna do anything else.   And that, I think it really, really shines there. It's basically like a better webbing version. You know, webbing being like a traditional belt with suspenders, right? I think Vietnam era stuff. You know, this whole series started because I did a semester at one shepherd and I ran webbing and I thought that was a much better way to carry sustainment kit and weight. And so I kind of, I've been moving that direction. I've just gone through a couple of evolutions in the past, I don't know, two plus years that we've been doing this series. So I think that the flick definitely shines in that category. So I think that the flick definitely shines when it's a standalone rig. I think it does fantastic there. And if you had one of these loaded up, you know, just for yourself because that's how you're gonna run it or in a cache or whatever. Or again, giveaway kit and they're just gonna run it just as is. Man, it's gonna shine marvelously because it's gonna carry its weight really, really well. But because I usually like to carry a rock, I like to have extra space. I wanna pair that with my chest rig. For me, the flick just isn't gonna work. And that partly might just be a preference thing. So why is this in a Minuteman series at all? Why not just put this as just another video on gear?  And what I mean is specifically for Minuteman, your mission likely has a shorter duration. Likely you don't need to be out for 24, 48, 72 hours, right? Likely you just need to get through the next six to 10 hours, right? Or maybe like one to 10 hours. You don't need necessarily a lot of other stuff. When you think about Minutemen, right in the American tradition of that, you're talking about fighting on known territory around where you live. So when the parachutes start dropping and the blue helmets are here and you need to like gear up, likely you just need to get through the next couple hours and then you're gonna have a spot to hide or stop or rest or retire from the field or resupply or whatever. And in that case, maybe the flick makes a lot of sense for you. Because like I said, it's gonna shine super well in that kind of six to 12 hour window of just having enough stuff to fight and live for the next 12 hours. And you can get by just wearing this over that 12 hours. Man, that is gonna save you a lot of weight, a lot of energy, and it will definitely behoove you in accomplishing your mission. So I don't think the flick is for me personally. And that, like I said, could just be a preference thing. But I think the flick has a lot of potential application for the everyday American minuteman because it is gonna give you that versatility. It's gonna allow you to flex into, again, all the way up to carrying a rock or whatever, just dump the butt pack, all the way down to just carrying the flick. You can put it over armor. It's gonna give you, you can wear it in a vehicle. You're gonna have that capability. And if your mission set is specifically more intended for shorter duration engagements, man, the flick might be it for you. So take a look at it. Let me know what you think. Again, the affordability to performance ratio is definitely there. And I think there are some benefits to owning a flick, even if it's just as a giveaway kit. Hope that gives you something to think about. Do brave deeds and endure.


Hello and welcome to CMC markets on Thursday the 3rd of May and this quick look at the week beginning the 7th of May and it's only been an interesting week for equity markets as I speak We still have the US payrolls report to get past European markets look set to close high after the 6th week in a row the DAX has broken above back above its 200 day moving average at 250 more importantly, however That's it that there appears to be significant divergence on the part of US markets Where we're actually seeing the the S&P 500 Looking to test and potentially break its 200 day moving average now Obviously between the time that I'm recording this and the time you guys get to see this video We could well have broken below that 200 day moving average on the S&P 500 Nonetheless, I think the key level to keep an eye out for really is the April lows those twin lows around about 25 75 2580 but certainly I think it closed below The 200 day moving average could well be significant in the overall scheme of things when it comes to potentially the future direction of US markets because I think an awful lot of the declines on the part of US stocks is really what the US dollar is country is currently doing The rate expectations the potential for further rate rises going forward and this week's Fed minutes Fed minutes or even Fed meeting rather this week's Fed meeting Does appear to suggest that ultimately Fed officials do appear to be going slightly softer on the growth front While slightly more hawkish on the inflation front now at the moment the dollar is on a bit of a charge It's hit its highest levels against the euro and around about three to four months and Ultimately, I think there's a good chance. We could well go higher We've seen significant breakouts against the euro below 121 50 more importantly as we can see from this chart in front of us Also against the pound breaking below that 137 10 level that I did that I have identified on Previous videos, and I think that's why this week's key events are very very important we have the Bank of England rate meeting and quarterly inflation report now if we cast our minds back Nearly three months now to the February Inflation report what struck me about that report was I think how hawkish it appeared to be in terms of a Rate rise was likely to come sooner than markets had anticipated nothing That was clearly the case that markets were working That was the base case scenario that markets were working from Until that intervention by Bank of England governor Mark Carney at the IMF meeting less than two weeks ago Where he wrote back? Significantly on the rhetoric that we could expect a rate rise in the coming weeks and months He was slightly softer on that as a result. We've seen the pound drop quite sharply We can see it clearly here on this chart here where we've drifted back from 143 50 And in that time we've only really posted two positive days and even those Are pretty pathetic there's this one here and at the moment as we speak we're just about in positive territory for the day That could well change what is significant However, is we are currently still above 200 day moving average around about 135 20 And I think that for me is the key support area now that could come under pressure in the wake of the US payrolls report Which is due out in around about 24 hours time If that's a good number we could we'll see further dollar gains and Further sterling weakness and further euro weakness, but ultimately I think it's the Bank of England decision Next week. There's going to be the key focus on Thursday The expectation now is for rates to remain unchanged and ultimately I think it's going to be really about All sort of picture Bank of England officials paint with respect to the UK economy Are they down big do they downgrade their growth forecasts for this year as a result of the poor numbers that we saw in the first quarter? And if not, why not and do they downgrade their inflation forecasts on the back of that? And what's their outlook for wages because we've heard an awful lot of Chatter in recent weeks from Bank of England officials about the fact that wage growth is heading back to the 3% level So what challenges does a weaker growth outlook do or give to the Bank of England with respect to a move higher in wages going forward so That's really I think the key item that I've got my eye out for on what is going to be a holiday shortened week It's a bank holiday weekend. So ultimately the 7th of May There's not really going to be that much to talk about the 7th other items to keep an eye out for this week Are the latest China trade numbers? They're going to be particularly interesting because we've seen some big surprises in some of those recent China trade numbers the March numbers were a big surprise China posted its first deficit with the US and over a year exports fell back sharply Which was a big variance from the big rise that we saw in February now as Chinese new year has no doubt Skewed these numbers is it normal service being resumed in April those are out on the 8th of May We also have a number of important earnings announcements Disney's Q2 numbers 21st Century Fox Q3 numbers. They're going to be particularly interesting in the context of the sky Story and the Comcast bid for sky will 21st Century Fox make an increased bid For sky will Disney be forced to actually up their bid for 21st Century Fox and obviously The 39% stake in sky that they already own so number of key factors to keep an eye out for In this particular week as usual any questions, please feel free to drop them my way on my colleague David Otherwise have a great weekend and we will all speak to you next week. Cheers