Hey everyone, welcome back to my channel. I hope you're all good. Today we're going to be chatting about my most anticipated releases for the second half of 2021. I don't want to talk about how it would be like halfway through the year. Oh well, all you can do is laugh. I have toned it down a bit. I'll link if you want my list for the first half of the year. There was like 60 to 70 in that one. Who did I think I was? I've already read 45 books this year so far. So for the second half of the year, I have considerably less books that I'm super excited about. I have 29, which I still feels like a lot, but I feel like it's more manageable than what I had in the first half of the year. I've been a bit more strict, I've been a bit more picky about what I want upon this list, and these are the ones I am most, most, most, most, most excited for. All of the dates I'm going to be giving are UK dates. Most probably most of these books will release the same day all around the world, but I know that UK has some different dates to the US for example. So if you're like, is this that book already came out? I'm like, no. So the first one comes out on July 6th and it is Rise to the Sun by Leah Johnson. I am so excited for this one. I really loved You Should See Me in a Crown by Leah Johnson, which came out I think last year. So this is her second novel, I believe. This one I think is another sapphic relationship, which we love to see. I love sapphic YA. You'll see like a few on this list, I think. Yeah, there's quite a few sapphic YA on this list coming out in the second half of the year. Thank you. You're so creative. Where do you get your inspiration? God in the gaze. And all I know about this one is I believe these two girls go to this festival and it's about them falling in love at this festival. I think they meet at this festival and work together to like have the festival experience they want and they fall in love in the process of it. So so excited for this. I really loved You Should See Me in a Crown and that was the debut. That was the debut. So I'm really excited to see what is to come next. Next one comes out on July 8th and it is Other People's Pose by Calla Henkel. Now I was very penny sent and ark of this. So I have spoken about this already and quite a few of you were really excited about it. This is a thriller about these two girls who live with this writer and they think that the writer is using them as inspiration for her thriller novels and it's set like in the 2000s at the height. You know the 2000s pop culture with like Britney Spears, free Britney by the way if anyone wonders, I'm sure it's everyone's opinion. Anyway, so I'm so excited to see the thriller set in that time. That time is so nostalgic to me. When I was growing up, I just had such a cool idea for a thriller. I'm like, this is what we need. This is what we need giving us what we need. We need this. This is essential. This is a crisis. Next is one of the books I am most excited for and that is The Taking of Jake Livingston by Ryan Douglas. So this is a YA horror which I really like YA horror. I feel like YA horror is a good level of scary for me. I am a bit of a baby. So I just find I do gravitate more towards YA horror. This is about a boy who can see ghosts. Typically, ghosts are just harmless, like reliving their deaths over and over again. So it's more just like an inconvenience to him but then he meets a ghost who killed like six people or something. So it's like a serial killer and then killed themselves and the ghost has like plans for him and wants to take control of him basically. So yeah, I love the cover for this. It's partly all I am so excited for it. Bitches, this is mad. Oh, next coming out on the 22nd of July is She Who Became the Sun by Shelley Parker Chan. This is one that everyone is really excited for. If you ask me what it's about, could I tell you? I just kind of saw the cover in the hype and I was like, it's going on the list. It's going on the list. Oh, it's pitched as Mulan meets Song of Achilles. It is a reimagining of the rise of the Founding Emperor of the Ming dynasty for an amazing new voice and literary fantasy. That is exciting. So in 1345, China, this has had like rave reviews from people who have read it already. So it's similar to Mulan in the sense that the protagonist in order to try and save her family, I think portrays like a male monk or something. But I am so excited. It's going to be so good. It's going to be so good. Oh, another super anticipated July release. Also coming out on the 22nd is Love and Other Natural Disasters by Misa Seguria. I told you we have a lot of sapphic YA in this video. I really loved This Time Will Be Different by Misa Seguria, which I read last year. Did I read it this year? No. It was at the border, whichever one it was. It was at the border. I think it was the end of last year. I don't remember love. I don't remember at all. I really don't. I know for a long time ago. All right about this is that it has a fake dating trope between these two girls. On the back, it says, Nozomi has it all planned out. A summer in San Francisco, the perfect internship, fake dating the girl of her dreams. Lucky for her when it comes to love, there's no such thing as a perfect plan. So excited. I am really excited to read more of Misa Seguria. I feel like her stuff is just going to be really quick digestible stuff to read. I love reading a contemporary like this when I'm in a bit of reading slump. And then my last July release is on the 27th of July, and it's Not a Happy Family by Shari Lapina. I've only read one Shari Lapina. I've read an Unwanted Guest, but I really want to read like all of her other books. All of her other books. I have The Couple Next Door, which I need to read, but this one I believe is about a parents who are killed, and they leave behind three children to inherit this like rich estate. The synopsis strongly intimates that one of the kids killed the parents, and you're trying to figure out who it was. So your suspect was narrowed down, but I love thrillers that look into like family dynamics, like really bad family dynamics. Yeah, I just want to read more Shari Lapina. I really liked Unwanted Guest. Like it was a simple fly through mystery thriller, and we all know that's what I love. Okay, August. I cannot remember what this book is about. Let's look it up. Right, so good for me. This synopsis is very short. So this is The Woods Always Watching by Stephanie Perkins. This comes out on the 3rd of August. I've got so many books coming out on the 3rd of August. We'll get through them all. Stephanie Perkins is the author of Anna and the French Kiss, an icon, a living legend here on Booktube. And the synopsis is very simple. It says, A traditional backwards horror story set first page to last in the woods of the Pesca?  National Forest in the Blue Ridge Mountains. Two girls go backpacking in the woods. Things go very wrong. And then their paths collide with the serial killer. That's all I need to sell me. I have always been interested in Stephanie Perkins's other horror. There's someone inside your house, but I feel like I've got bad reviews, didn't it? Am I making that up? Is this slander? It's got like a 3.45 average rating. I don't think he got the best reviews, but I was intrigued by it. So maybe if I like this one, I will go back and read that one. I've never been interested in Anna and the French Kiss, though. I don't think in this day you will catch me reading that. It's not for main part. Okay, next August 3rd release is The Dead in the Dark by Courtney Gold. I remember the cover for this one, and I know it's about these two girls. We will find out the rest together. Oh yeah, oh yeah, oh yeah, oh yeah. Okay, so it's this town where teenagers are going missing and one of our protagonist's parents are like these ghost hunters. So they've come to the town and she has moved to the town and they are investigating it on their TV show. And then the other girl, her boyfriend was the first one to go missing. And I think they basically team up to figure out what or who is haunting the town. And I'm really excited. I'm really excited. I just had really good reviews so far. I love the cover. Next August 3rd release is Oh, How We Fall Apart by Katie Zhao. So this is another thriller. Look at this. Look at this. We're just having the best time.  People are going to grab their Goodreads layers. They're like dark academia sets all the girls alike. Students at an elite prep school are forced to confront their secrets when their ex-best friend turns up dead. I think it's very similar to a lot of YA thrillers where you have this group of friends and something happens to one of them. And then there's secrets all between each other. They all have secrets when this person knows his person secrets, but they don't know this person's secrets and everyone's got secrets. They're secrets. Secrets. Well, we'll just have to wait and see. You are so inquisitive, my darling. And then my last August 3rd release is All's Well by Mona Awad. Now let's chat about this. We need to chat. We need to chat. I did not love Bunny by Mona Awad. I liked it. I think, well, I think, I don't know what I'd give it today if I read it today because it's like my rating has changed a little bit since then, but I think I'd give it a three star. I didn't love it. I felt like it was a bit ambitious but didn't necessarily pull off, which I admire it for, but I didn't necessarily love it. So I am a bit tentative and a bit nervous going into this book, but I know it is about a chronically ill professor putting on this Shakespeare play and then like these people turn up and they like know everything about her life and are like, we can fix you. And it goes from there. I'm gonna give it a go. I'm gonna give it a go. I hope that I love it and me and Mona Awad suddenly click, but we shall see. Next is one of my most anticipated releases and it is As Good as Dead by Holly Jackson coming out on August 5th. Now this is the third in the Good Girls Guide to Murder series.  And I don't know if this is gonna be the last one. I don't know if it's a trilogy or if we're just gonna keep going. I can't say much about the plot of this one because it will spoil the other ones. Basically Pip is a investigator around the town. She solves murder mysteries or just mysteries in general, like in the town where she lives. It's got a lot of mixed media elements. We have the interviews that she does, if there's photos or maps and stuff that will put in the book as well. And she went through something really big. At the end of book two and her character changed a lot, especially in like the latter half of book two. So I'm really excited to see where her character is gonna go and the path and how the character is gonna react to it and like kind of move on from the circumstances that we had. So I'm so excited for that one. It's one of my most anticipated runs. Next is A Velvet Was a Night by Silvia Moreno Garcia. So this is by the author of Mexican Gothic, which I still haven't read, but is one of like I think I'm gonna get five stars. I'm so excited to read Mexican Gothic. I need to just hurry up and read basically. So this is set in 1970s Mexico City. So it's like a historical fiction mystery, which that is my favorite combination. I love historical fiction and mystery. Well guess what people? I get excited about small things. I love it. I love it so much. No matter what historical setting we're in, I just love historical fiction plus a good mystery. I think in this one basically someone is missing and these two people are both trying to find this person who's missing. That's all I really know. But I've heard like it's like dark and like smoky and like ooh, like noir. You know, that's that's the vibe. Oh my goodness, I'm so embarrassed. Next, oh another one I'm super excited for in our last August release is My Heart is a Chainsaw by Stephen Graham Jones. This comes out on August 31st. Stephen Graham Jones is another author that I'm really excited to read from. I do have The Only Good Indians and it is one, I should really get to all my books soon, but you know it's one that I do want to get to soon. So I've heard that this book is like a homage to slasher films, which listen I can't sit here and say oh my god I love slasher films. I don't feel like I've ever watched them. Again, bit of a baby. Horror, I've only really watched The Shining. I loved it. Apart from I did watch The Exorcist when I was like three days old but I can't remember it.  But again, super excited to read it. It's one of my most anticipated releases just because I want to give horror ago like I've said a lot in this video and Stephen Graham Jones ago but I feel like I'm going to read The Only Good Indians first. Next is Never Saw Me Coming by Via Kurian coming out on the 7th of September. I don't know too much about this one, it's one I added to my list only last night. It's about this girl, I love the plot of this, this is going to be so much fun. So it's about this girl who seems very normal but she is also plotting to kill a childhood friend who wronged her and because of this she is in like this college clinical psychological psychology study for students like herself who lack empathy and can't comprehend emotion like fear or guilt and one of the other one of the other students is found murdered and so it ends up being like this like cat and mouse game and I think we're like running from evil person and it sounds like a lot of fun, it sounds like a really fun thriller. Oh next, super excited for this is So Many Beginnings by Bethany C. Morro. This is a little women retelling. Women. So I loved Little Women's film, I still haven't read the book, I own it, I bought it, as soon as I left the cinema from watching Little Women for the first time I went and I bought the book and yeah this is just like about these four black sisters growing up in the civil war and them trying to find their path and it's a retelling. I didn't love the book I have read from by Bethany C. Morro, it was a song below water, is that what it's called? I think that's what it's called. I didn't love it, it wasn't completely for me but I feel like this is a different vibe and out of all the authors that I have read from before that I've been like I want to give them another go, Bethany C. Morro is top of the list but I couldn't tell you why but I'm most intrigued by her concepts and by what she's bringing out. Oh next, I named this as my most anticipated release for the second half of the year. It is White Smoke by Tiffany D Jackson ladies and gentlemen. It is Haunting of Hill House meets Get Out so it's another like YA horror. She's described as running from ghosts so she's running from a secret past. She has to move into this new house with a newly blended family, I think she's just got like a new stepdad and stepsister and then the snobster says something like oh yeah but running from ghosts is just a metaphor right?  So basically is the house haunted? Is it is the house haunted haunted or are we haunted by our memories? I think it real dark when we all know and actually I don't think everyone knows except my darkness like I can get dark. So excited for this. Oh my god I love the cover, I love everything about it, I am so excited. Coming out on the 21st September is Under the Whispering Door by TJ Klune. A lot of you will know that the house in the Cerudian Sea is probably one of my favorite books I've read so far this year. I absolutely loved it and I was so surprised.  Sorry, hold up, pause, rewind. What did she say? She's just talking shit! So this is about a man who is collected by the grim reaper and he goes to like the place where souls are supposed to pass on but he decides he's not ready and he starts to kind of learn about his life and what he didn't appreciate in it and then he's told he has one week before he has to pass on and so he goes about living a lifetime in seven days and I'm just so glad, I'm so excited to read more from TJ Klune in that writing style. It's gonna be so good. Okay October! First we have Fireborn by Ashting Flour. This is another one I've been super lucky to get an alcove. I think the vibes of this are like brave. You know like the Disney film? I think that's kind of the vibes we're going for here. Twelve, our main character, has pledged like her allegiance to these clans and a girl is stolen and she goes on a mission I think to find her. It is middle grade and I'm really excited to read it. I feel like this is gonna be a massive middle grade this year. If you like middle grade I feel like this is gonna be one of the biggest releases this year. Next is another one of my most anticipated releases and it is The Spirit Engineer by AJ West. It is this historical fiction so it is set in 1914 in Belfast I believe and it's about how after the Titanic sinks two years later high society has become obsessed with like spiritualism and like trying to summon spirits, trying to summon dead relatives to try and speak to them and I think we're following like either a science, I think we're following the scientists and he starts to believe that maybe there is something into this like spirit summoning business. I'm super excited for this. It is a debut. Next on October 19th is The Death of Jane Lawrence by Caitlin Starlin. This is another one of my favorite covers. I really love this one. So this is by the author of The Luminous Dead so this is another author where I own one of their other books and I'm so excited to read it but I haven't read it yet. This one is about this woman who realizes like it's I think it's historical fiction again and she realizes that she has to marry in order to kind of live the life of freedom that she wants. She marries this guy that she doesn't really know and then at night he is like crazed. Has no idea who she is. The house is manic and then in the morning he has no memory of that happening and so she starts to think like is there something strange going on in this house or is this guy just like it's getting weird. Next is the haunting season which is an anthology. This is basically like ghostly stories I think like ghostly short stories by a lot of really famous kind of like literary fictiony kind of authors. I think it's going to be really really fun like just some nice haunting stories. And then next is another anthology. It is The Very Merry Murder Club. So this is an anthology of mostly middle grade authors I believe doing like seasonal murder mysteries. I'm really excited.  Me, my dad in the end of the rainbow. I know that he's written a short story in it. That's how I found out about it. I really want to read Murder Most and Ladylike. I think it's by Robin Stevens and I believe she is like the editor of the anthology so I'm just so excited for this. I love anthologies. I love murder mysteries and I love middle grade. I love all those together so I'm so excited for this one. Then we have a few November releases. Now I am hoping this is still coming out in November. I haven't heard anything otherwise but I also haven't heard much about it. I believe the author is still finishing it. If I was like 100% certain that it was coming out this would have been what I said was my most anticipated 2021 second half release in my mid-year freakout tag but I wasn't so I didn't want to say it and then it not actually be coming out. It is Girls of Fate and Fury by Natasha and the Yang. This is the third and final book in the Girls of Paper and Fire series. It is one of my favourite fantasy series ever. It is sapphic. It is beautiful. It is this amazing world that has been built. It's one of the best world buildings I've ever read in a fantasy series and I'm just so excited. I'm so excited to see where this series ends up, where the characters end up. I just can't wait. I absolutely just can't wait. I know that Natasha and Yang has had quite a few health issues in the past couple months so that is the main reason why I don't know whether it's coming out. I don't mind waiting a bit longer. I can wait a bit longer if I need to but I'm hoping it will come out still in November. I'm hoping. I haven't heard different but I also haven't heard people like oh it's coming out so we shall see. Then coming out on November 2nd as well is You Reach Sound by Justin Thao. So this is about a young couple who are in love but then the boyfriend Sam passes away and in her grieving process the girl keeps bringing his cell phone and he picks up. So this is very much a book about grief, about loss, about like not being able to say goodbye to the person that you love. I'm really excited for it. I hope that I'm going to love it. It sounds really touching, really heartbreaking. I love heartbreaking contemporaries. Like they're my go-to for contemporaries. Me to myself. To say you suffer would be lovely darling. Then on November 9th we have Within These Wicked Wars by Lauren Blackwood. This is another YA fantasy. It is a retelling of Jane Eyre. It's about this girl who's like an exorcist and she's hired by this guy but he's not entirely trustworthy. He's a bit sus and I think this is one of the most anticipated releases for a lot of people towards the end of the year. I'm so excited. It sounds really really interesting. Then my last release, my last anticipated release is my only December one and it is A History of Wild Places by Shaya Earnshaw. So this is like a cult book which we know I love books about cults. I love books about cults. Don't ask me why but I love them. I believe this is about a guy who is known for being talented at finding missing people. He's hired on this case and then he goes missing himself. It's all tied into this community called pastoral who live very sheltered lives and it's about people I think years later investigating his disappearance in the context of this cult basically. Oh my god the end. The last line is synopsis. It says hauntingly beautiful hypnotic and bewitching. A history of wild places. The story about fairy tales are fear of the dark and losing yourself within the wilderness of your mind. You don't even need me to say a word. You don't even need me to say a word. I'm obsessed. I'm so excited for that. Oh my god I feel like it's gonna be so good. That is all of my second half of the year 2020 releases that I am so excited for. So many good books. I can't wait to read all of these. Let me know which ones you are most excited for down below. If it's any of these or if you've got some other ones I'll be trying not to take recommendations at this time because I need to just read the ones I'm most excited for. If you've gotten to the end of this video comment a calendar emoji and yeah I hope you're all having a good time and I will see you very soon in another video. Bye!


Ahead of the COP27 conference in Egypt, South Africa announced the launch of its Just Energy Transition Investment Plan, which is meant to help the country move away from coal and focus on renewable energy. The US$8.5 billion deal is supported by countries such as the United States, Germany, France, the UK and the EU. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has been widely hailed for this plan. However, within South Africa, many have raised concerns. A prominent voice has been the National Union of Metal Workers of South Africa, or NUMSA, the country's largest union. What are the issues that NUMSA has raised? What are the aspects of the plan that affects South Africa's workers in poor? Bhagamele Khlubi Majola, National Spokesperson for NUMSA, talks to People's Dispatch. The climate change deal which the world over is patting the South African President on the back for is really a sellout deal. That's how we view it as NUMSA. We believe that President Ramaphosa, together with the ANC government, has betrayed the working class with this deal. The $8.5 billion funding which Ramaphosa is busy celebrating and is essentially made up of loans. 97% of that funding, according to Business Insider, is loans. And for us, this is already a clear sign of how the principles of a just transition have been violated. Because as NUMSA, whilst we've always supported renewable energy and the fact that we must transition from a dependence on coal to renewable energy, when you hand over the process of a just transition to the private sector for them to implement, you have already failed. And in our view, this is exactly what the South African government has done. South Africa's renewable energy policy is entirely dependent on privately owned renewable energy companies. And ESCOM, which is the sole provider of electricity for the country, has absolutely no role to play in rolling out renewable energy. And for us, this is another example of how workers and their families are being sold out for the benefit of banks and privately funded financial institutions. Because if ESCOM was actually going to play a meaningful role in renewable energy, then ESCOM and of course workers would be beneficiaries of this process. ESCOM on its own employs approximately 30,000 employees. And by taking ESCOM out of playing a significant role in renewable energy, the South African government is basically not future proofing it. They're basically killing ESCOM because it means that whilst the world moves into this space of renewable energy and starts to advance with this new technology, ESCOM will be left out. And that for us is one of the fundamental failings of this policy. Plus the fact that the South African government has not actually come up with any clear social plan for how communities, workers in the province of Mbuma Langa will be taken care of once this transition is rolled out. The South African government has made commitments to shut down coal-fired power stations. Mbuma Langa has 12 out of 15 of those coal-fired power stations. And our own research institute, the CSIR, has predicted a minimum of 100,000 jobs that will be lost in the province of Mbuma Langa as a result of the closure of these power stations. And this is why we're saying they have completely betrayed the working class because there's absolutely no plan to assist these workers in Mbuma Langa to transition, to be upskilled, for example. No plan to develop new sectors or new industries in that province to absorb those jobs. If you look at how this funding will be spent, only 1% has been allocated for skills development. Less than 1% has been allocated to cushion workers and their families for this transition. And this is why we're saying that we have been betrayed. The South African government is thinking only of the wealthy, connected political elite. And workers and their families are going to find themselves paying dire, dire consequences for this process. At least 100,000 jobs lost with no plan to create new ones. In a country like ours, which has 46% unemployment, that is really a disaster waiting to happen. A key question before countries of the global South is the modalities of a just transition. How do countries such as South Africa shift from polluting sources of energy in a way that ensures that the developmental needs of the people are met? What kind of provisions need to be made in transition plans to ensure that they are equitable? For us, what a just transition looks like. First of all, it has an ownership component. We would have liked a situation where a plan that would have allowed workers and communities to actually have ownership in some of these renewable energy companies that are going to be cropping up as a result of this process. There's no ownership factor at all. And what that tells us is that this technology, which as you know, is mostly foreign owned, will remain in the hands of foreigners whilst they simply extract whatever wealth in terms of whether it's human resources or in terms of customer base that they will be making money off from. But as South Africa, we are not going to benefit from that, certainly not in terms of ownership and in terms of sharing the knowledge in terms of the technology, that's not a factor. And that for us is crucial if we're serious about rolling out a just transition to renewable energy. Secondly, the fact that as I said, there's no social plan for these workers who are going to be displaced by the onset of renewable energy companies and the closure of power stations is already a deep problem for us. The international labour organization is very, very explicit that the just transition process must not disadvantage future generations. Now, if you consider the fact that we've signed ourselves up for a very costly loan of more than $8.5 billion plus the fact that more than 100,000 families are going to be displaced through job losses, that is already a clear violation of the principles of a just transition. South Africa is a country which has the highest levels of inequality in the world, it has 46% unemployment. And if this plan does not speak to creating jobs, safeguarding the future of the mass and safeguarding the future of the masses, it has already failed. The ILO is very, very clear about this, that green jobs should create more opportunities and should grow the economy. And we're not seeing that happening when you look at this, when you analyze the steel. And I think for us, one of the things that also is very worrying is the fact that they, you know, we've been raising this issue as we've done so now since 2018. And every time we raise this issue, we are attacked by the left or those who call themselves the left by environmentalists because they say that we are not supporting measures to deal with climate change. And I think it's very important that those who are operating in the space who are driving solutions for climate change and if they claim to be progressive, they should actually take the time to listen to what trade unions and workers on the ground are saying. You cannot solve the crisis of climate change with a new, by deepening the crisis of unemployment and poverty. That is not a just transition. And the ILO is very clear that this process should be a process that is worker focused, that it must have, it must be human centric. In other words, workers themselves must drive the process. They must define the timelines and it should be to their benefit. Everything about the consultation regarding just transition has been a tick box ticking exercise by the South African government to create the illusion of consultation when they've already started implementing the plan. And this for us is why we say they are perverting the term just transition because the result of this process is there will be more poverty. There will be more suffering. There will be more inequality and unemployment. And we will regret the day we signed up for this deal because we have not done the simple work of preparing the path so that the masses are actually prepared for what this is going to mean for them. We've not put in any or devised any plans. What Ramaphosa has been doing is this is a PR exercise. And of course, we can see that the Western media is clapping hands for him and the banks are clapping hands for him. And that already should make you worry when you're a member of the working class because you know that this project will not benefit us as the masses, as the poor, as workers. This is purely a machinery to empower those who are already rich. And if I might just add, in the last round where the South African government was allocating bids for renewable energy, there were 25 bids which were rolled out. 12 of those 25 bids were handed to Ramaphosa's brother-in-law, Mr. Patrice Muzzebe, who is a big player in renewables. And this is why we have to ask deep questions about who is really benefiting. Clearly, it's not the masses. And what's going to happen from this process is that those who are connected to the president through family ties or who are connected to the leadership of the ANC will definitely make money from this process. But once again, it will be workers and their families who will pay the highest price as a result of these changes. Why NUMSA is deeply concerned about this process and why we say that workers are getting screwed is that the EU, the US and China have emitted 53% of the world's carbon dioxide since 1959. They are the greatest polluters. They are the ones who are responsible for the climate change crisis that we now face today. In contrast, Africa and South America have emitted just 3% of the CO2 in the atmosphere in the same period of time. And the question is, why must South Africa rush to implement this process when we are not even the ones who are guilty of contributing to climate change in the first place? Western Europe and America developed off coal. South Africa has an abundance of coal. Now, we are being denied the opportunity to develop our industries, to build our economies in the name of defending the climate. That's fine. We can do that. But why don't we see the rest of Western Europe rushing to implement these changes? Germany, as I speak to you now, is in the process of reopening 20 moth-bold coal-powered fire stations. And South Africa is shutting them down. Surely that does not make sense. We are a developing country. We are not in any way close to being at the level of Europe in terms of development. And yet we are denying ourselves the opportunity to industrialise to the same level that they are in the name of climate change. And whilst we, again, I have to repeat this because we keep being attacked of not supporting climate change. We do. And we do support the changes that must take place in order to mitigate against that. But as NUMSA, we will never support a programme that worsens conditions of ordinary workers and their families so that capitalists can make more money at our expense. And this is precisely what this climate change deal is.


Hello Columbia and welcome to This Week in the City. Highlights brought to you from the public relations, media, and marketing department with the City of Columbia. I am your host, Alicia Utsi. This week in the City, starting on Tuesday, March 29th, Columbia City Council will hold a budget workshop at 3 p.m. at City Hall. The budget workshop agenda can be found on our website at ColumbiaSC.gov. While Columbia is time for working Wednesday on Wednesday, March 30th, public works will hold open interviews from 9 a.m. until 11 a.m. at 2910 Colonial Drive. They have multiple positions open and you can actually get interviewed on site. Again, that's on Wednesday, March 30th from 9 a.m. until 11 a.m. at Public Works, located at 2910 Colonial Drive. Also on Wednesday, March 30th, the Office of Business Opportunities will offer a free webinar for tax credits for business owners. The free webinar will be held on Wednesday, March 30th beginning at 1 p.m. You may register on Eventbrite and again this being offered by the Office of Business Opportunities. The topic is tax credits for business owners. Are you looking for a way to get involved in your community? Well, on Saturday, April 2nd, join the Columbia Police Department along with Serve and Connect as they partner to clean up a neighborhood. They will meet at King Park, located at 2300 Green Street, and they will actually be working in the Martin Luther King Junior neighborhood from 10 a.m. until 2 p.m. Well, that wraps up this week in the city. Thank you for joining us and make sure you stay connected by visiting our website at columnsc.gov. Also, follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for the latest updates and highlights from the City of Columbia. Of course, you can always call us at 545-3020, or if you have questions about anything on this program, please email us at pio.columnsc.gov.


الحمد لله أننا انا نحن منحنا ، الله أم نحن منحنا لي to be back to the bay area with the أحباب مصطفة ص. ص. ص. To celebrate the Rabbi with all of you. Our beloved ص. ص. was chosen by Allah سبحانه وتعالى and Allah سبحانه وتعالى choose for him when he told him إنك باعت يونيناء you are in my eye Allah chose for him the best time to bring him on earth لأن الله يهتم بكل الأرض ورسل صاحب يأتي ويقلت. من الأمر أفضل إلى أفضل جنرية. هذا الوقت خير القروني قرمي، ثم الذي يأتي وثم يأتي. الله يأتي لهم أفضل مكان أفضل. مكان ومدينة. مدينة كانت أنها مدينة جداً من حماية ويقلت ومدينة منورة. كل رحلة جد مدينة. جميع of us and even some of the poem this they say we're in paradise we say oh Medina Allah chooses for him the best hearts after profits Allah chooses the best hearts to be the companion of Rasulullah صلى الله عليه وسلم Allah chooses for him the best woman صلى الله عليه وسلم everybody so we have a young man two years old his name was Ammar he's missing uh we i think he's in the Sunday school area so if you hear me and there's a two-year-old boy named Ammar uh go ahead and bring him to the office his parents are there Ammar he's two years old he has a striped shirt on so and choose the best wife at the beginning to take a good care of him to take a good care of him when she asked him يا رسول الله when she asked him يا محمد يوغوز جزيلا فنجد اذا انت the messenger of Allah if you're gonna be the messenger of Allah take care of me رصول الله صلى الله عليه وسلم قد او خديجة او خديجة اذا انا اخفت ما انت ترغب او انت اخفت لا اخفت but if i'm not then the god of the prophet that you think he said he will never let you down and then الله سبحانه وقرأتها من كل الاشتراق ، الله قلتها لترى ، إقرأ بسم ربك الذي يخلق فالولدر قلت لترى ، لم يكن لترى ، then it came to his heart ومن ثم الله قلتها ، سنقرأ كفلعتنسة ، سترى ، لا أتسلق لا تفعل ذلك وهي ترصه شيء في القرآن قريبًا و الله يقول لهم لا تُحرك بهيسانك لتعجل به لا تتعلم اننا علينا جمعه وقرآنه سنجده و سنعطيه لكم لا تتعلم about it و الله يقول لنا و أنزل الله عليك الكتابة الحكمة و علمك لما لم تكن تعلم أن الله تعطيك لكم الكتابة و الحكمة هي تفرص رصاصا بالسامة لأنه لا ينتقل على الهوان هو الوحنوحة و الله يقول له هذا و أنه يعرفه أنه لم يكن تعلمه من before فاللأ Life of Allah حافظ كل شيء فيه ريوانه يفتحةه ريوانه يفهل هو أصفله هو حلاله و أنه يعطيه بكل شيء ريوانه الجيده Нуهذا هو why did he said ريوانه أرغب أنه لا تترحس و ريوانه أرغب أنه لا تترحس my night with Allah. He feed me and give me drink. Then when it came to his heart where Allah put the best heart ever that there is no heart like him in his chest. And he filled it with Rahmah. And he said this is Rahmah for the world. And the world is everything except Allah. Everything except Allah. Then in this heart all the light is in it. And all the mercy is in it. So Allah first wanted to show the whole creation the light of the Habib صلى الله عليه وسلم. And that's why he said when he came and he opened his chest he allowed the inner heart to give the light to all creation. That light shine on everything. And then there is in the heart in the heart there is a Rahmah for all creation right. And also there is Rahmah for shaitan. But Allah said there is no Rahmah for shaitan. So it's his nejibri took that portion in his heart that mercy that goes to shaitan took it away in order he will not receive Rahmah from that. Even though on the day of judgment there is amazing Hadith. That's in Muhammad صلى الله عليه وسلم. His servant Barira came to him and she was walking a man his name is not mentioned.  Rasulullah صلى الله عليه وسلم will not benefit you in the day of judgment. You have to cover yourself. She got angry she went to Allah صلى الله عليه وسلم. He said that's what he's saying. رسول صلى الله عليه وسلم he really got angry. And he took his soap like this. And his face is red. And the Sahab they knew whenever they see this movement and the face is red that there's something serious. And they said. يا رسول الله. They took their sword. Whatever you want. We are fighting with you. He went to the member. He said what's wrong with people. They think that I'm not going to benefit my family. He said I'll be giving Shafa'a and Shafa'a that goes from here to Yemen. And he said on the day of judgment I'll give Shafa'a. Until the people I give Shafa'a they give Shafa'a.  Thinking that he will receive the Shafa'a. But that mercy he went taking away from him. And then Allah صلى الله عليه وسلم prepared for all the stages in the life. Prepared him when he was young. Then whenever there is a music happen or something happen he will sleep. He will never attend something that. You know. And they prepared him. Allah told us. لو انزلنا هذا القرآن على جباله لا رأيته خاش عمو تصدره خاش لله. If this Quran came on a mountain we crushed. And Allah told us وانزلته على قلبكه. He made his heart ready to receive the Quran. And filtered out for us so we can hear it. If it came directly to Raswa Salam on his tongue we will be crushed all of us. But from his heart received and he were able to pass it to us on his blessed tongue. And Allah prepared him for the Barzakh. Because he said حياتي خير لكم ومماتي خير لكم. My life is good for you. Whatever you do Allah will fix the revelation. And when I die it's all good for you. Because you're actually represented to me. When I find something good I thank Allah on your behalf. And who is he? He is Raswa Salam. He is Ahmed Mohammed Mahmood. He is the owner of the Hamd. The banner of Hamd in his hand. And he is doing Hamd on our action. Imagine you did something. You just one verse of Quran or you pray to Rak'a. That's your action. And you were thinking about this dish or this business. But that action will go to Raswa Salam. Raswa Salam will filter it and wrap it with his Hamd. And Allah will receive your action with the Hamd of his حبيب صلى الله عليه وسلم. And Allah will grow that. Until as mentioned that on the day of judgment. You will look at the action and say whose action is this? Whose profit? This is your action. Being received from Allah from the حبيب صلى الله عليه وسلم with his Hamd. And he said if I find something else I'll do استغفار on your behalf. And I'll tell that the استغفار is accepted. When he did it, استغفار استغفار رسالة صلى الله عليه وسلم is accepted. Then Allah prepared him for the biggest malliade ever. We serve at malliade here 2-3 hours. The biggest malliade is 50,000 years. Allah made the whole creation in a need for help. And they go from Prophet to Prophet. So when you need your help. I am designed for it. Allah is designed for this moment. الله سبحانه وتعالى لله و سوف يفعله سجده و سجده لأنه هو هو المخامل المحمود هو أحمد محمد محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم الله سوف يعطيه محمد محمد في السجود الذي لم يتحدث قبل كل مخامل سيكون مستعدة بمحمد صلى الله عليه وسلم where the anger of Allah will go down and the mercy will go up and Allah will tell him what do you want he said ya Allah ummati my umma all of you صلى الله عليه وسلم wanted all of you said we'll give you your umma what do you want said ya Allah just let us pass from the day of judgment this 50,000 years to the courtyard and then Allah prepared them also with two overflow from paradise to a place from the cauldra they were overflow from cauldra to al-hawd to other pool his house is ready for us and he told us he was on the member he told the sahaba we have appointment all of you we have appointment at the house and one of you he told me he said when you wake when you go up from your grave rush to the appointment don't look for your brother or mother or wife rush to the appointment of the رسول الله عليه وسلم because he said we have appointment of al-hawd we have appointment of the al-hawd and then Allah prepared him for what for the sirat and the mizan and the accounting صلى الله عليه وسلم will never let us down at all then paradise cannot open except to the رسول الله عليه وسلم only for the رسول الله عليه وسلم he will not on the door of paradise and the owner of paradise he will say he will say I am only allowed to open for Muhammad صلى الله عليه وسلم with his umma we are the first one to enter paradise and people of paradise there are 80 rows sorry 120 rows the old paradise 80 of them this umma 2 3rd because of the barakah of رسول الله عليه وسلم and then الله prepared him for what in the in the in the firdosa الأعلى and all the paradise he will be there shining his light and then on top of all of this Allah gave him المرء مع من أحب that the one who love رسول الله عليه وسلم will be with him this is for us المرء مع من أحب the one who love رسول الله عليه وسلم will be with him and he loves الله سبحانه وتعالى he knew what the meaning of loving الله سبحانه وتعالى so he is with Allah and whoever from us loves رسول الله عليه وسلم we are with رسول الله عليه وسلم with Allah سبحانه وتعالى and that's the highest pleasure in paradise which is الحضر الإلهية with رسول الله عليه وسلم the best thing to see Allah with the lenses of رسول الله عليه وسلم so the best thing to do is connect your heart to the heart of رسول الله عليه وسلم he will connect you directly to Allah سبحانه وتعالى and this is the easiest thing is our life to get the highest مقام the highest position with Allah in through loving رسول الله عليه وسلم and doing salat on رسول الله عليه وسلم and as our sheikh they said the minimum you do at salawat every day is 300 because the minimum of Allah is 300 Allah said اتكروني ذكران كثيرة mention me Allah the minimum of Allah is 300 if you keep on doing this your name is mentioned in front of رسول الله عليه وسلم and his Salam is giving you Salam back and his Salam back and his Salat on you is the best thing in this world we gain this it's us this Ummah all other nations they wish to be in our shoes everybody so this has nothing to do with our action if we have sins if we have things problem and issues he says Salam شفاعته لأهل كبائر من أمتي ما شفاعته with the big sins of my Ummah the كبائر he said نعمل عبو أنا الشرارة أمتي what a good nima for the evil of my Ummah so how about the lovers of رسول الله عليه وسلم all of you you will be with رسول الله عليه وسلم you will see what a big nima because they say the best nima ever is to recognize the nima and just recognizing the blessing that we have in ربيع because of that coming of رسول الله عليه وسلم to us and to be his our prophet and we are his Ummah this is the highest nima and I know it's time for for عشاء الله وصلى الله عليه وسلم محمد وعلى آله وصحبي وسلم


Okay. So the person who asked the question now, I forgot what you were asking. It was about poison, right? So you want to know if you have a poison table and you want to... Can you repeat your question again? So I can write the numbers. Yes, I was asking when or in each situation, do you decide to use a poison where Px is greater than or equals to 2? You say it's equals to 1 minus P where x is less than or equals to 1. Okay. So let's assume here, I'm going to use one of these values. Let's assume here we have lambda of 0,2. So therefore it means we're going to be at this point. And the question is asking you to find the probability that x is greater than or equals to 2. So that is saying you need to be finding those probabilities and adding them together, which then it means you need to add the probability that x is equals to 2 plus the probability that x is equals to 3 plus the probability that x is equals to 4 plus that, plus that, plus that, right? In this instance, because there are 1, 2, 3 values that you're going to add and you can add them together. You can add all these values like 0, 0, 0, 1, 6, 4, plus 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, plus 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. Plus you can see that those other ones are just 0, 0, 0, 0. They will not make any difference whether you add them onto that, right? When you add all of these values, they will give you 6, 7, 1, 0. So that will give you the probability that x is equals, x is greater than or equals to 2 will be 0, 176. Alternatively, you can say the probability that x is greater than or equals to 2 is the same as 1 minus the probability of x less than 2 because less than 2 will be the complement of greater than 2. And in this instance it will be 1 minus the probability of x is equals to 0 plus the probability that x is equals to 1 because we're only going to be adding those two numbers. And that will be equals to 1 minus 0, 8, 1, 8, 7 plus 0, 1, 6, 3, 7 which will be equals to 1 minus. This is the answer. If we add, if anyone calculated, 8, 1, 8, 7 plus 1, 6, 3, 7 which is equals to 0, 1. 0, 7, 5, 4. 9. 9, 8, 2, 4. 9, 8, 2, 4 which will be equals to 1 minus 0.9824 will be equals to 0, 1, 7. I'm not doing it right. 0.755. 0, 0, 1, 7, 4. Which is the same as what we got there. Those are the scenarios that you can use the 1 minus. But you need to know that. Sorry. The complement, sorry. The answer is 0, 0, 1, 7, 6. I don't know if I've got it right on my side. 1, 7, 6. Yes, you got it right. I wrote 4 instead of 6. 1 minus 0.9824 is 0, 0, 1, 7, 6. 0.0179. Check if you did write the values right. You should have 0, 8, 1, 8, 7 plus 0, 1, 6, 3, 7 which should give you 0, 9, 8, 2, 4. 7 plus 7, unless you are using a table with 5 decimals.  If you're using the same table as ours with 4 decimals, then you should get the same answer. Maybe it's my calculator that is rounding off. What kind of a calculator are you using? A SHOP. Okay. Is it a financial calculator or a normal calculator? A scientific calculator. Just check your values right there. Okay, so you need to just know that a compliment of a greater than or equal is a less than. A compliment of a less than is greater than or equal. A compliment of less than or equal is greater than. Because the values need to add up to 1. The probabilities. Okay. So then let's look at how we do answer some of the questions, unless if you do have other questions that you have for me. Lizzie, I have a question. There was an exercise that I watched one of your recordings. And then there was okay. It was given that X was equals to zero and lambda was equals to 0.2. So it definitely is a multiple. Sorry. Yeah. So the answers, the three answers were wrong. The fourth answer was e to the power of negative 0.2. And then the fourth, sorry, the fifth answer was none of the above. So as I watched, you ended up saying the answer is none of the above. But when I was using the formula substituting everything, maybe I might be wrong. But I saw that all that like the lambda to the exponent zero and then and the X. Yeah, like the answer was actually e to the exponent is 0.2. So I was confused between the two. I don't know if you understand. I'm going to go to that question. It was on the recordings, right? Yes. So this is the session. Wait, sorry. I think I would have over the session of today. I did. From, from a power point of fact, because I overall the presentation session. So I know which one you're referring to. Yeah, yeah, that was a major. But if you look at this, none of the above, right? And there is no negative number here, right? Can you see that? But that one. Negative number. I think that one did have. Okay, maybe I'm confusing the two, but that one did have a negative exponent and then. I can look at other negative X. Then the other ones that had a formula that would be the only question that had a formula in. But, but, and also it's fine if it's going to be there. I should find the answer for it. Yeah, I remember this one is this one. I did find one as well. So that is one. Yes, I remember. I think I would have also said. And probably they would have been a none of the above answer somewhere. Oh, okay. Okay. Because this should have been a negative. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. No, thank you. No worries. Okay. So if there are no other questions, I do have other additional questions that we can go through. In the last whatever minutes that are left. Are there any other questions? Yes. One of the questions on the on assignment to feature requires us to have a poison table where we have a 10.5. But the two poison tables I was able to find do not have that value. The poison table expect you to have a 10.5 value. Did they include 10.5? Like they gave you an average of 10.5. It's very difficult to to understand how would have. I would say question would have been stated. If I don't know. Yes. What they wrote it down. Can you read it? Okay. Can you read the question out? Or you can type it on the check. It's always easier to have all the information because then if you just give me one, one number. It might be that they gave you something else and they expect you to use that number to calculate something so that you can get another view. The table ends in this instance and 10 and then they give you the 20s. So there is nothing in between. They wouldn't expect you to use the values that are not part of the table unless in your prescribed book, your table goes beyond 10. Are you still typing? Yes, I'm still typing. I'm using a phone. If you wrote it down on a piece of paper, you can take a screenshot of it and upload it and attach it. There is a thing to attach a picture and then we will have a picture on here. I can have access to it or otherwise you can post it on the WhatsApp and then I will have access to it. Okay, while we're waiting for that, let's look at some of the questions that I have on here. Do you have a question? Yes, ma'am, I also have a question. I'm using a sharp calculator and I'm trying to do the Poisson formula but I don't get the right answer so I don't know if it's the... I don't know how because even if I type in all the questions that we did previously, I'm not able to get the correct answer. Sometimes it's the right error. Alright, so you're using what kind of a sharp calculator? It's a scientific one. Scientific calculator but scientific calculators are also written like different, right? But it doesn't matter. I'll just open one of the sharp calculator depending. Do you have the one where the values are written in green, right? Everywhere? I know some of them they are written in orange. Yeah, but I mean like you do have the one where there is the median written in green on number four, number five. Yes. Okay, because there are different types of sharp calculators so that is why I need to make sure that I understand the type of calculator you have. So you have a calculator that looks like this, right? Yes. Okay, so let's go to our question that we just answered not so long ago. It was on here. You're talking about not knowing how to answer some of these questions. So I'm just going to use the values that we are familiar with, which are these values that we have here. You can see if I want to calculate. Let's assume now. I'm going to remove all this. Let's assume that we want to calculate the probability that X is equals to one and our lambda is zero comma two, right? And you want to use your formula. So your formula will state the probability that X is equals to one is equals to e to the power of lambda. Lambda to the power of X divided by X factorial divided by X factorial. And now we can just substitute our values e to the power of lambda. Our lambda is minus zero point two times zero point two to the power of X is one divided by one factorial. Our answer that we are expecting should be this answer that we have here. So let's go to our calculator. I've got so many other calculators open here. I will open the right one. So we can first calculate e to the power of negative two. So where do you find your e to the power of negative two? It's on the limb button. You will see that there is a button written e to the power of X is written in orange, right? It's like this e to the power of X is written in orange. So therefore it means we're going to have to press the second function. So in order for us to write this e to the power of negative zero comma two, we will have to press the second function. Lynn will give us this on your calculator. It should look like that. And you will need to press the plus or minus button so that you put this negative number on the question, this negative number by pressing the plus or minus. Not the minus of the basic operation, not this minus here.  And if you press equal, it will give you the answer like this. That is not the end because we multiply in with this value there. And then you just say multiply by what are we multiplying zero point two. I will put it in the bracket because I need to raise it. Well, you don't have to put it in the bracket point two and raise it to the power and your power. If you look at your calculator, this one will give you the power and then you just press that button and it will raise it to the power of one, right? That is one. Raise it to the power of one and press equal. I always like to press an equal sign because I need to make sure that it's doing the calculations right as well. And the last part of it of the calculation is to divide by one factorial. And then I say divide by and then you press one. And the factorial is on button number four is written in orange. And then I will press second function four and it will create one factorial and I press equal. And as you can see, the answer that we got is the same as what we expected zero comma one, six, three, seven. You just need to know how to use your calculator and practice with you. Okay, thank you so much. No worries. Any other question? I have posted the question on the chat. You posted the question on the chat. I need to check first to raise it. So consider a poison distribution with the expected number of occurrence per interval equals to 10.5. Calculate the probability that the number of occurrence per interval is equals to 11. Now, because my tables don't have 10.5, I need to go and find the prescribed book to see if in the prescribed book there is a table with 10.5. Just give me a second. Thank you for your patience. I am trying to find the table in the prescribed book. Even in the prescribed book they don't have the poison. How come? You see, a 10-bit B part of the tables. Then I wouldn't know why your lecturer will give you a 10.5. Probably they would expect you to use the online calculators. They should give you values corresponding to the tables. Otherwise, they expect you to calculate it manually. So this is when you use your calculators and the formula as well. So I will write the values here. So the question is calculate where lambda is 10.5. And what did they say? Exactly 11. So exactly 11 is equals to. So we need to find the probability that x is exactly which will mean is equals to 11. So you will just use your formula e to the power negative lambda, lambda to the power of x, divide by x. So you just substitute the values e to the power of lambda will be minus 10.5. 10.5 to the power of your x is 11, divide by 11 factorial and you will find your answer. I cannot give you the answer because the question is from your example for your assignment. So that's how you would answer the question. And that is why it's very important to know how to use your formulas because some of the questions might not require you to use the table. You might need to calculate things manually. Okay. So you should be able to answer that question if you get a question like that where the table does not have all the information. Right. Is there other questions? Are there any other questions? Yes, Lizzie. I'm referring to your notes that you've been giving us on study unit 4. You open that. I need help with exercise 7. Study unit 4. Is it on the notes? Like summary notes. Did you say summary notes? Yes. Okay. Yeah, so it's in session 3. Yeah. Sometimes sharing like this way. Let me stop sharing and then navigate directly to where the things are. Otherwise, you guys are seeing my computer. Summary notes. And it is question number. 7. Question 7. Yes. On the summary notes. Did the title say summary notes? No. Study unit 4. Session 3. Basic probability. Okay. So then it's not the summary notes. It is the one that we used in the session on a Sunday. Okay. Okay. Because then they are different. Okay. And you say it is question 7. Question 7. Okay. So let's look at question 7. I hope that is the one that you are referring to. Is it the one? That's the one. Okay. So on question 7. There are multiple things that they give you the answer. If the probability of A is 0.4, the probability of B is 0.3, the probability of C is 0. The probability of A and B is 0, 1, 2. And the probability of B and C is equals to 0. Then A, B and C are independent. B, A and B are mutually exclusive. C, A and C are impossible events. D, A and B are dependent. E, A and B are independent. Which one of the following statements are correct? Now, you need to take each and every one of them and evaluate the statement and see if they are correct. So let's start with the easy ones. The easy one is B. A and B are mutually exclusive. Are they mutually exclusive? Because if they are mutually exclusive, the joint probability of A and B should be equals to 0, right? So is A and B mutually exclusive? No. So we can cross that one out. The others, I cannot test them unless if I do some calculations. So statement number one, A says B and C are independent. When do two events are independent? We can test it by saying the probability of B given C would be the same as the probability of B. Or we can say the probability of C given B is the same as the probability of B. So how do we test that? What is the probability of B? The probability of B is 0,3. 0,3. What is the probability of B given C? So let's test that. The probability of B given C can be given by the probability of B and C divided by the probability of C. What is the probability of B and C? 0. 0. Divide by the probability of C. Which is 0,5. Which therefore is equals to? 0. Therefore this side is 0,0. Are they equal? No, they are not. So is event B and C independent? No. They are not. Number D, I'm going to skip number C because C says A and C are impossible event. Actually, let's not skip them. Are they impossible event? Yes, they are. Is A and C impossible event? If A is an impossible event, then the probability of A would be equals to 0. If C is an impossible event, then the probability of it will be 0. Are they impossible events? No, they are not impossible events because the probability of A is 0.4 and the probability of C is 0.5. So therefore A and C are not impossible events. They didn't give us that they are joined somewhere, but we know that they are not impossible events because they are equals to that. So they are not equals to 0. They are not equals to 0. So therefore they are possible events. So not impossible. They are possible events. I'm going to skip A and B and A and B independent and dependent. We're going to do them together because if one is not dependent, therefore it means it's independent. So let's look at E says that A and B are independent. We know that if they are independent, the probability of A given B should be the same as the probability of A or we can use the probability of B given A should be the same as the probability of A of B. So what is the probability of A? It's easy to find that one. 0.4 Is 0.4. What is the probability of A given B? They haven't given it to us so we can calculate that. So let's calculate it and see. The probability of A given B is given by the probability of A and B divided by the probability of B. What is the probability of A and B? 0.12 What is the probability of B? 0.3 And what is the answer? 0.4 0.4, therefore it's 0.4. So is A and B independent? They are independent. Are they dependent? No, they are not because if they were not independent then they would be dependent. Which one of the following statement is correct? So it's going to be 5. Only E. And that's how easy it is to answer the probability questions. Are there any other questions? Or can I use the questions that I have? Today it's Q&A. Based on the things that you don't understand let us help you understand them better. Nothing. I'll do spot checks in terms of questions that I'm going to pick on as we go along. So remember this, right? You must always, always remember when you do discrete probabilities, binomial probabilities, and Poisson distribution probabilities. The weight phrases corresponding to the symbols. Meaning, if you interpret the symbol what do they mean? You need to always remember that. So let's look at this one question. So this question says, consider two events that a primary care giver had to go through during lockdown. Waking from home and secure environment. Waking from home is represented by H and secure environment is represented by S. So they could have just said... Hi Lizzie, I can't see the question. Oh yeah, I didn't share my screen. Are you sure? I could see the previous question now. I don't see anything. And now? Yeah. Okay. So yeah, that could have just said consider the two events that primary care giver had to go through during lockdown. Waking from home and secure environment. They could have said A and B if they wanted to. But let's say they use the weights themselves. So H and S are our two event. They give us the probability that H is 0,53 and the probability of S which is secure environment is 0,56. And they also tell us that the probability of H and S is 0.38. To answer questions like this, if they give you the probabilities and they don't give you in the table you can create a contingency table so that you are able to answer the question with ease. Like I said, they could have just given to us as A and B because if it's A and that will be a compliment. If it's B, that will be B compliment. You can write them like that. So because they gave us the letters to use we can use our letters. So they said it's home and home compliment and we have secure and secure compliment. But they're also telling us some information because we know that secure and home and secure is 0,38. We can put it there and the probability of home regardless of whether it's secure or not secure is 0,53. 0,53. And the probability of secure regardless of whether it is and this is where you put your totals, right? And this is where you put your totals and that will be 0,56. 0,56. You can take the information and create your own contingency table and now I can calculate all the other measures that are left on there because these are probabilities. This should be equals to one. Therefore here will be 0,47. And here will be 0,44. And here will be 0,81. And here will be 0, this one is the tricky one. It's 0,15. Oh, there we go. And here 0,29. As you can see I've completed my table I can answer any question that I need to answer from here. So the first question, we're looking for the correct answer. 0,18. 0,18? 0,18. Wait. For H complement. H complement and what? This, I already have 0,18 for H complement and secure. Are you referring to the same? Yes. Okay, so now we can answer the question. So the probability that H or S you need to go back to the formula. Remember the formula? The probability of A or B is given by the probability of A plus the probability of B minus the probability of A and B, right? So we can write it in the same manner using H and S. So here we need to find the probability of H plus the probability of S minus the probability of H and S. Our probability of H they gave us 0,530. Plus the probability of S is 0,560, minus the probability of the joint probability of H and S is 0. Let's calculate. What is the answer? 0,1. 0,7. Therefore, this is not correct. We're looking for the correct one. If event H and S are independent so they are telling us if they are independent what do we know when events are independent? If event H and S are independent then the probability of H and S should be the probability of 0,6. So you know that the probability of H and S should be the same as the probability of H. What is the probability of H? 0,53. Therefore, they are not independent because this should be the same as that and they telling us it's 0,56. That is not correct. That's how you're going to check because they told you that they are independent. If they are independent then the probability of H and S should be the same as the probability of H. The probability of H is 0,53 then it's not correct. It should be 0,53 there. If S compliment or if S with a C-gap is the compliment of S then the probability of S compliment is equal to 0,47. So we've calculated all of them. So what is the probability of S compliment? We find it here at the end. 0,44. It's 0,44. This should be, it's not correct. It should be 0,44. So that is incorrect. If H compliment or if H with a C-gap is a compliment of not S this is my mistake here we should say of H the probability of H compliment H compliment is 0,47. So this should be I can't change it. My bad. This is 0,47. So therefore that is the correct answer that they are looking for. Event H and S are mutually exclusive. H and S and they gave it to us there. Are they mutually exclusive? No. So they are not mutually exclusive because they are equals to 0,38. And the only answer they would have been number four. And that's how you will answer some of this question. Sometimes they will give it to you in a in a question like this as you can see from here I've got a table with home and away and they told me that H is home S is secure environment so the compliment is insecure the compliment of home is away and you can answer the question relating to this. And here they are asking you to find out whether secure and insecure are compliments of one another. Events that home and secure are independent therefore it means you will need to prove that the probability of home given secure is the same as the probability of home and if not then they are not independent. The probability that home and away are mutually exclusive you need to go and test whether the probability of home and away is away. I'm going to use away as a I'll use the first letter to represent since here they use the first letter to represent. Home and away is H are they equals to zero if they are equals to zero then they are mutually exclusive remember you're looking for the incorrect answer right. The event home and insecure are not independent you're going to find whether the probability home given insecure should be the same as the probability of home or should not should not be the same as the probability of home therefore they will not be independent. So let's check let's test that let's test all that you need to complete the entire table if we want to use some of this values so yeah it will be longer writing are you aware that it's no longer writing is it no longer writing or no longer showing on your side. No longer showing on our side and sorry Lizzy I'll take you back I didn't I asked about the 0.18 but I didn't get there you say that you were given so now I see it on question two but no no no you were not given remember I put all the things that you were given it was the 0.38 0.53 and 0.56 we completed the entire table this was didn't get how you calculated the 0.18 sorry oh we take 0.56 subtract 0.38 it will give you 0.18 okay thank you no worries so yeah we add I'm gonna use the same 53.47 0.53 0.47 and yeah I would have been 0. 0.56 and 0.44 yeah I'm just VISA VISA from the table that I was using so how do we answer this question easy compliment event it means it's another event that is part of the sample space and is not included in that so secure and insecure are these two events so it means secure is a compliment of insecure insecure is a compliment of secure we know that so if this was s this would be as compliment or if this was I if this was I this will be I compliment something like that because one they are compliment of one another so this one is right correct but we looking for the incorrect one the event home and secure are independent so we need to prove this what is the probability of home probability of home is 0.35 so we know that probability of home is 0. probability of home is 0.53 what is the probability of home given secure that we need to calculate all given secure we calculated by using the joint probability of home always remember that the joint probability of home and secure divide by the probability of home so the probability of home and secure home and secure is 38 0.38 divide by the probability of home home is 53 0.53 what is that probability 0.72 0.72 so therefore this is the incorrect one because they are not the same the probability of home and away are mutually exclusive those two are compliment event so the probability of compliment event they cannot happen at the same time so somebody cannot be home and also be away at the same time so that will be correct now the last one is asking because then the probability of home and away will be equals to 0 there with the number C the event home and insecure are not independent so here we need to solve for something we need to prove that they are not equal so let's prove that so probability of home we know that it was 0.53 let's see if the probability of home given insecure which will be the probability of a joint home and insecure divide by the probability of the given which is the insecure the probability of home and insecure is 0.15 the probability of insecure regardless of whether they are home or not is 0.44 0.34 0.34 0.34 yes 0.34 0.34 they are not independent because they are not equal that one was 0.53 this one is 0.43 so that is correct so the only question that is incorrect is B I hope you do understand how you're going to answer the questions so sometimes you will not be given only the table with 2 you might be given the table with 3 categories or 4 categories maybe home, away and on holiday something like that you still need to be able to calculate the probabilities based on that okay and sometimes the questions might look like this an experiment can result in 1 or 4 likely events that can happen and these are the events that can happen and they say let A be event where event 1 and 3 happens and we know how you can calculate the probability of A because there are 2 outcomes out of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is 2 out of 7 you can calculate the probability of that but they are not 7 sorry they are 4 my bad, I counted these events you should count these events there are 4 of them there are only 2, 2 divided by 4 gives you 0, 5 3 divided by 4 gives you 0, 75 2 divided by 4 will give you 0, 2 for event C as well so based on those events they ask you which one of the following event their statement is incorrect you need to use the A's and the B's to answer the question so A and B are independent how do you prove that A and B are independent the probability of A given B will be equals to the probability of A now the challenge you will have here is that given you A and B but you can calculate A and B the A and B on this event how many events falls within A and falls in B so if I have a circle here and a circle here and this is A and this is B in A we have E1 and E3 in B we have E1 E2 and E3 can you see that? I'm able to create A and B A and B probability will be given by 2 divided by by 4 which is 0.5 so I do have my probability of A and B because it is divided by now let's find out if A and B are independent so we know that the probability of A is 0.5 the probability of A and B let's go find that the probability of A given B is given by the probability of A and B divided by the probability of A and B we did find it because we were able to calculate it is 0.5 divided by the probability of B which is 0.75 what is the probability of A given B? 0.67 0.67 0.67 so they are not equal therefore they are not independent we are looking for the correct answer the probability of A or B is equals to 1 so let's go find out because here we can find the probability of A plus the probability of B minus the probability of A and B Liz before you continue sorry can I take you back? Yes so without doing those circles that you did up there to get the probability of A and B how else can we get it? because you can look at the values that they both are in both you can just do this there are two values that are in both A and B so that's the only way you can find that okay so the probability of A is 0.5 which was given plus the probability of B 0.75 minus the joint probability of 0.5 which is equals to 0. 0.75 because 0.5 and 0.5 will cancel out you will be left with 0.75 so that will be will not be the correct answer the probability of A and B is equals to 0.25 B and C B and C so we now move to B and C let's not use the VIN diagram so how many values are in B and are also in C there's only one right? so 1 divide 1 divide by 4 0.25 0.25 so this will be 1 divide by 4 which is 0.25 which is the value that they are looking for the probability of A given B we did calculate that we did find it the probability of A given B we did it 0.67 so this will be incorrect A and B are mutually exclusive we did find that they are 0.25 so that will be correct and that's how you will answer the questions okay so we spent more time on the probabilities and B's and basic probabilities so you can also find more exercises to do this is yeah when you go and answer questions relating to binomial because they are all asked in the same question paper binomial, Poisson all those things when you read the question and you are given a percentage and you are also given a number then you need to know that you are doing a binomial if they didn't mention that this is a binomial probability you need to know and remember that that you are given an N and you are given the probability of success right and to calculate the average you still remember that the expected mean of a binomial is N times pi so yeah will be 20 times 0.35 which is equals to 7 sorry which is equals to 7 we looking for the incorrect statement right the probability that at most you always need to remember that at most means the probability of X less than or equals to 1 therefore you will need to find the probability of X equals to 0 plus the probability that X equals to 1 and you need to go to the table I need to share my entire screen right in order for you to be able to see the table have you gotten the number the answers so this is binomial so you need to go to the binomial table and on my binomial tables my binomial tables are I need to rotate them this one I need to rotate it the other way around so we know that we looking for 0.35 and N of 20 okay so how many columns 1, 2, 3, 4 4 columns this is 10 N of 20 is this one rotate and rotate it until clockwise so 0.35 N of 20 X of 2 or 3 so we looking for those 2 values is 0.002 plus 0.002 0 0.002 0.002 0 which is equals 2 0.0022 which means that is correct that is correct we still looking for the incorrect one the probability that only one branch which means we looking for X is equals to 1 what is the probability of X is equals to 1 we still on 0.35 the probability that X is equals to 1 is 0.002 0 0.002 0 which means that is correct the average number of branches closed so we still looking for the average we calculated it previously and yeah it says it is 19 so that we know that it is 7 it cannot be 19 to be 7 and the probability that at least 1 the probability that X is greater than or equals to 1 you can find this by saying 1 minus the probability of X less than 1 that is not include 1 right so that will be 1 minus the probability that X is equals to 0 which is 1 minus the probability of 0.002 which is 0.99998 and that is how you will answer some of these questions we can go on until quadratum I just want to go to the Poisson and the discrete list remember with the discrete the table can be like this or they can put it like this Py so this is Y right they can put it like this it's 1 and the same thing so it can look like the way it is horizontally or they can put it vertically where it will still the table will still have the same values whether it's like horizontal or vertical and so on and so on right that will mean it means 1 and the same thing so you need to take the table as you see it and answer the question as they ask you but before you do if the question has a question mark so you can see that yeah we have a question mark you need to first calculate this question mark by saying 1 minus all this other the sum of all the other views how much is it what is number 2 probability of number 2 will be 1 minus you can just minus all the values 0.009 minus 0.376 minus 0.167 minus 0.6 0.661 minus 0.016 and the answer will be 0.371 are we on the same page yes right cool and then you are able to answer any of these questions so the probability that y is equals to 2 it means you were calculating that value they say it's equals to 0 and that's what you are looking for but that is incorrect the probability that it's between this is inclusive so when it says inclusive remember to include 0 and 5 so it's all of them what do we know the sum of all probability should be equals to 1 so this should be correct the probability that y is greater than 1 so it does not include 1 so it's all the values from here going there so you just add from 0.00 so you can add all of them or you can say 1 minus those two values or you need to add all four of these values 1 minus 0.00 9 minus 0.37 6 is 0.615 or you can say 0.371 plus 0.167 plus 0.061 plus 0.016 it should give you the same 6 as 0.615 which is correct the probability that y is less than 2 less than 2 or equals to 2 so it includes 2 as long as there is an equality sign to it therefore it means it includes 2 so you count from here to there so you just add 0.615 plus 0.371 and it should give you 0.756 and it should give you 0.75 because 0.09 and 0.37 6 gives us 0.615 plus 0.7 0.756 and the other one says between but does not include 0 and 5 so it means you only interested in 1 up until 4 so you just add those 2 or you can say 1 minus 0 and 5 and that will give you the answer you are looking for or you can add on 4 of them 1 minus 0.009 short cut minus 0.016 but you need to know what you are doing when you take short cut and the number is 0.975 so short cut it means you take that 1 minus those 2 values outside and that is your discrete probabilities you will find questions that looks almost like that otherwise then they will give you questions where they ask you find the expected value what you need to remember regardless of what they are asking you to calculate or find what is the expected value the expected value is is the mean parameter is the average whether it is if it was for Poisson then it will also be referred to the variance so that is the expected value it is the expected value or we can also call it the expected the expected value or we can call it the mean we can call it the average it is the mean value the average they mean one and the same thing so if in the exam or your assignment they ask you what is the expected value you know the answer to the question it is as easy as that you can't even do any calculation except if it is a Poisson you need to know that it is also the same as the variance and if they ask you for the expected value of a Poisson that is easy to calculate or to find because you don't even need to calculate anything remember also you need to be able to know how to use your formulas so for example this autism South Africa have found out that one out of two people with autism struggles from social interaction assume we randomly select six people living with autism what is the probability that only three people with and now here all of a sudden you are not given the percentages of something like that they give you all the information you need you can calculate your pi by using one out of two it means one divided by two which will give you 0.5 which is your probability of success of that people living with autism and then what else are you giving you giving n and you are giving your x of only three people which is three all they want you to do is to calculate the probability but if you look at the answers this is not something that you can go and calculate it's something that you need to use in the formula and calculate certain things and without certain things so what do we know we know that the probability of x is equals to your I'm going to use ncr in this instance ncr and pi to the power of x 1- pi to the power of n-x or you can use the formula so depending on which one you feel comfortable with x is equals to how do we do this is it n in fact I'm not going to use that other formula now I need to go and memorize what that formula looks like the formula I'm just going to show you it's do we have formulas on this nope we don't have formulas but you know what formulas are there to use anyway so I'm going to use ncr because then my n is 6 my r will be 3 because here I'm calculating the probability that x is equals to 3 so therefore my pi I did find it 0,5 to the power x, x is 3 1- 0,5 n is 6 minus x, x is 3 and you just calculate what is ncr remember you use your calculator so let's say those who are using your calculator your ncr is it oh it's written in orange there it is so you just press 6 second function ncr and then 3 and press equal and that is equals to 20 and that is my answer and looking at this so the second part of the equation I do not have to do anything just say multiply because my bracket means the same thing as multiply 0,5 to the power of 3 and multiply by 1 minus 0,5 is 0,5 6 minus 3 is 3 and I look for the right answer and the right answer is that one and that's how easy and simple it is to just answer the questions and I think we're going to go over that time because now I want to go to the poison but we did poison so so much so we are right on time in terms of Godat and this one gives you 41% so we know that this is the pi, 6 students is our n and sorry not 6 is our n I'm giving you wrong things, 6 is our n and yeah they say at least half of the 6 so you need to also think outside of the box what is half of 6? half of 6 is 3 so therefore our x of at least means greater than or equals to 3 so we need to find the probability that x is greater than or equals to 6 and in this instance I will say go and use the table because the challenge with the table is you don't have 41% let's go there are you able to see the table as I scroll we have we have 40 and then you have 45 can you see that therefore it means in order for you to answer this question you will have to calculate it manually and because there are 16 and we know with Poisson let's go back to Poisson n corresponds to the number of n so it's easy so this will be the probability that x is equals to 3 plus the probability that x is equals to 4 plus the probability that x is equals to 5 plus the probability that x is equals to 6 or remember this is the probability of the probability of x greater than or equals to 3 you can say it's 1 minus the probability of x less than 3 which means you only need to add very few of them the probability that x is equals to 0 plus the probability that x is equals to 1 1 plus the probability that x is equals to 2 you just need to add all 3 of them instead of 84 depending on you how you want to do it so that's how you will answer the question so based on either one of them you will get the same answer I'm not going to do that because I'm just giving you in terms of the Poisson they will give you the average you just need to remember that this is your lambda and they say at least 4 therefore you are going to find the probability of greater than or equals to for now with the lambdas it depends because if I go to the lambda table and the lambda says 1.5 and you can see that it ends online so if the question was the probability that at least 4 so at least 4 it means I must add all this so it means I must add all of them all you can do only those ones it depends on you I will just add this because there are 1, 2, 3, 4 and also here 1, 2, 3, 4 the effort is still the same there are 5 but I mean the values are very very small so the effort will still be the same so you make up your mind as you go along in terms of which one will be easier to calculate whether to add and subtract 1 from 1 or to just add all of them so that's how you will answer the question because that is greater than or equal this one as well is a day or more 2 or more so 2 or more is like the probability of x is equals to 2 2 or more 2 or more I'm not going to go into details in this one at most that that means exactly that means exactly so you just use the equal equal equal everywhere you calculate and this says the estimated value so the estimated value is the same as the average so you just go to the average of lambda of 20 so remember 20 on this one is the last one it will be this table with the 20 but the x values will be different for the 20 as well and then they're asking you about the variance remember this is poison so they also did say it's poison the average the variance is the same as the lambda if my lambda is 20 therefore this is also 20 and what is the mean what is the mean the mean if my lambda my average is 20 therefore it means my mean is also and then the others you need to calculate and those are some of the questions I just put together as well for you to go through but practice practice practice practice it's very important it's very very very important so what happens oh that's the other thing I wanted to say what happens when you have an average of 1.2 let's go to 1.2 1.2 and if you are sitting on 1.2 let's let's assume that we are here on 1.2 and they ask you find the probability that X is less than or equals to 12 find the probability that X is less than or equals to 12 there is no 12 here but because of the question the way it's formulated it says less than or equals to 12 it means it's all these values including the imaginary ones that were not there so we know that the table ends at 9 so it's adding all of them and we know that the sum the sum of all probabilities where lambda is equals to 1 that or 1.2 that will be equals to 1 because if I add all of them they should give me 1 that you should always be aware of but if they ask you what is the probability that it's greater than or equals to 12 greater than or equals to 12 there is no 12 here so that will just be equals to 0 because it doesn't exist it's an impossible event that can okay but if it says less than or equal you can just add all of them even if 12 is not part of the table if they say on this one they say dating is not part of the table but if it's less than or equal so it means adding all of the values up and you just need to remember to do that so I'm looking at this one where it says 10 but we are on 1.4 but I'm just giving you some example as well okay so I will upload this note after I made those small corrections that I needed to do on one of these slides and that concludes today's session I hope you should be able to do that especially those who haven't done at least one submission you are able to do your first submission remember to look at all the all the recordings that we did on a Sunday they should give you at least more or less some ideas in terms of how you can target or answer your questions in your assignment you can see you in July but I'm always available on WhatsApp throughout to support you and assist you with anything you want remember if there is any question that you struggled with and you want to discuss with me during don't take screenshots just remember write down and share so that we we stay in the bounds of what you can do and not do in terms of what is allowed and what not allowed so remember that always right not that I'm going to give you your answers but I will lately steer you in the right direction in terms of how you tackle some questions other than that have a blessed Sunday I will see you in July enjoy thank you thank you thank you