presentation. Hello, everyone. My name is Sergei Borodko. I'm from Belarusian State University in Minsk, Belarus, and most specifically the National Laws on Monetary Research and Education Center. It is one of the research centers of the university, and I'm going to tell a bit about one of our ongoing topics of research, which is related to analysis and modeling of ozone anomalies. But actually, this is maybe not the primary, so our primary area of research in our research center is developing actually instrumentations for ozone measurements, which is mainly optical passive remote sensing. So this is the instrument, more instrument hardware-oriented part of our research center. But another part, which I'm belonging to, is doing analysis and numerical modeling in the last year as well. So actually, yeah, we do something related to stratosphere-perspirant interactions and ozone climate connections in this. This has started maybe 20 years ago. I mean, the center was founded, and we have, from this theoretical analysis point of view, have analyzed some things like ozone trends, connections between ozone and atmospheric general circulation. And like you can see, analyzing, comparing a number of days from the observational analysis and comparing them to certain types of circulation, this was mainly analysis of observational data. And during the years, one interesting task pointed out, which was related to, is there a way to develop a way of forecasting total ozone content in a very short time on the basis of the meteorological information that you can have. And one of the basis for that was one of the results, which was related to statistical analysis between the daily measurements of total ozone content over the given point and to the surface temperature. So after a number of analysis techniques, it has been found that you can find a very beautiful correlation between the total ozone content over the given point and, say, if it is your station observations over the given city and the surface temperature. But it works only for the extended summer period. And also, you have to do some averaging of the parameters. It should be not instantaneous, like, but a very small, like, two, three or four days. Averaging gives you time series that can provide you with such a nice correlation. So it can be given some interpretation in terms of atmospheric masses changing over the given point. But anyway, it works only in the extended summer period in our region in mid-latitudes. And it was used as a base for a statistical forecasting techniques for the total ozone content for, like, for the next day, for the next few days. But there is one important exception where it is more difficult to use such techniques. And it is this not very, you know, not very numerous cases or numerous days when you have such events as a local ozone anomaly. So, which makes forecasting much more different. Actually, we can say a few words in more general perspectives that, just as everybody knows from textbooks, that we are now speaking about the stratospheric ozone, not the near-surface tropospheric ozone layer. And you know that it is main components of the atmosphere responsible for the unique temperature profile for the very existence of the stratosphere. And it's, so, it's just a very schematic description of the vertical distribution of ozone in the atmosphere. And we can expect that it will be dependent on the processes in the troposphere, that the ozone distribution, the stratosphere will be dependent on tropospheric weather phenomena and vice versa, that we can even expect that there should be a possible influence on the tropospheric weather and climate on the circulation on, large and small scales, depending on the processes in the ozone layer. So, it is a very interesting area of research regarding the question which are the predominant directions of interactions, how strong they are. While we can say that we can imagine changes in the stratospheric ozone distribution coming from the surface weather, on the other hand, if we can point a number of different reasons which may cause variability in the ozone, which are not related to the troposphere, so we can have changes in the stratospheric ozone due to other regions and then point out if you have some change, some effects from then in the surface weather and climate. So, such obvious, the most popular, maybe the most popular issue is like influence of solar activity on the ozone and then the propagation of the signal down to the lowest stratosphere in the troposphere. In fact, the system is endlessly complicated and more specifically for the topic of this workshop, we know that we can also speak about the role of the stratospheric and stratospheric ozone. Of course, in connection with the El Nino Southern installation and other season long scale processes related to tropospheric weather and climate. Yeah, but here we can just say that a lot of external things can be sources of the variability in the stratosphere and so another interesting point of, another interesting area of research is trying to find the top-down propagation and the top-down site of this stratosphere-troposphere interaction, some of the ozone influence on tropospheric weather and climate. This is also what we have been doing for some times and our approach included analysis of correlations between the changes in the stratospheric ozone distribution which can be due to some external reasons not related to a tropospheric phenomenon like what we mentioned above, like solar processes, energetic particle precipitations like that and we can analyze the relations between it, add between large-scale features of the tropospheric circulation which we can analyze by such, you know, such features as station or upper-level frontal zones or the boundary. So the tropospheric amasses, so this is a way of analyzing the interaction of this kind. But the other side of the study, the other side of the kind of troposphere interactions is related to smaller scales and this is what I'm going to focus now on. This is such event, such phenomena as locals on animalists which we may expect to be more like the down-top side of interaction. This is, we may expect that this to be a result of the influence of surface weather on the stratospheric ozone distribution and we shall now see why. Because they universally recognize to be formations of predominantly dynamical origin, why? Because mainly of, you see, they have synoptic scale in both space and time and since they are synoptic scale deviations, we may expect that they should be related purely to the dynamical processes in the troposphere and in the troposphere, upper-troposphere or stratosphere region. They are occasionally named mini-holes for the negative and mini-heist positive, so, but we should know that they are holes but they are not this hole actually which is a very known, maybe their hole, I use the capital H for it because it is the seasonal, the true ozone hole that is forming is above Antarctica every polar winter and we know that it is due to chemical processes and we can speak about the importance of, in fact, of studies of the influence of this large ozone skull on the tropospheric circulation on the surface weather. And what we are talking about is not even this one because this is not, this was not above Antarctica but you remember that true the same, the same ozone hole of the same size approximately just as large as above Antarctica that we had above in the northern hemisphere in 2011. This was also due to chemical ozone destruction, it was also on the season of high scale related to large polar vortex, ozone, chemical ozone depletion and an interesting thing is that actually in both cases we had an important influence of ozone depletion on surface, on the troposphere circulation and on surface weather. We can name at least a few publications that analyze that when we were speaking about the classical the Antarctic ozone hole, we can just mention a few modeling studies and analysis studies that analyze how does this ozone depletion influence the circulation and has effects not just over Antarctica but over other regions like you see subtropical precipitation patterns but it's not just the Antarctic ozone hole because the Arctic record animal in 2011 and also regular lowering of the ozone content of Arctic which are not as large as it was in 2011 but nevertheless we know there is a lot of research relating to that and its influence on the circulation and its relation to the El Nino events and also in fact in the generality is a very important side of the atmospheric process especially for the seasonal forecast and which is what we call this meeting and in fact it is one of the important factors that are to be accounted in the model for seasonal forecast especially the interaction between the circulation, the ozone redistribution and its radiative heating. So what are we calling ozone mini-holes, ozone anomalies are events like that, this is kind of old, this is December 1987, January 1998, it was, yeah it is an optic time scale but it just happened so that it was exactly on the new year day and actually I like this case very much because we are speaking about this mini-hole, anomaly I like this case very much because it happened above my country, it's passed through Central Europe and Eastern Europe and finally passed Belarus and several other countries in Eastern Europe and in fact it is the record low event because it is responsible for the very low total ozone values like 163 drops in units it is comparable to that in the Antarctic, I guess in the Antarctic ozone hole, anyway it is very low for Europe and what we can see is that this is one of the kind of maps that are very often used when looking for ozone distribution so this is obviously from the very well known and used Canadian Environment Canada webpage so we can see, we are looking for total ozone now, we see that at the same moment we have, this is a typical distribution if not the fact that we have such a small amount of ozone here, such a profound ozone minima, so we have both ozone maximum and minima and it is in fact just a dynamical distribution of ozone without any chemical depletion but anyway it is still, ozone hole and it still leads to high ultraviolet exposure values but only for a few days when it takes place, it can be more obvious to look at it on the deviation map where we see deviations of the total ozone from its so called normal values and this is probably which is more often used than the total ozone maps but here one question that we may think of is what should be used as a normal distribution of ozone just for this calculation and it actually depends on who is doing this so in different places we may find that different climatologists, different distributions of ozone like different normal distributions of ozone are used but in fact what we have in the end depends on that because in this case obviously we can see the ozone anomaly both in the total ozone fields and in the deviations from the so called normal distribution but in not all cases are like that, you see that we can maybe speak about some other not so profound animals just here but it becomes important when we try to make some kind of statistic or climatology of local ozone anomalies and in this case results will be dependent on what is used as a normal distribution so and we have actually tried to make such kind of analysis and to go from the case by case analysis which is like when you see when you are looking for papers studying local ozone anomalies it normally analyze like one or two cases and they it is not always easy to just have a like a database of all say local ozone anomalies over Europe for a given time period and so it should be homologically done with something like objective feature extraction so we would like to have an objective identification and track an algorithm for all kinds of anomalies and then apply it to some for analysis or analysis fields it is we can use similar ideas like used another papers related to the general fields of application of objective feature identification algorithms for geoscientific data sets but the point is that different definitions of local ozone anomalies exist so what we are going to use is just a simple definition as deviation over the in the total ozone field from some specified normal distribution which is greater than some threshold value and also we needed to be a contiguous region on the map and also we would like consecutive time steps of the anomaly to overlap and so it would be in fact a continuous region of more than threshold of deviation that is above this threshold value which is a continuous region in the three dimensional space like latitude, longitude and time and also we need to do some subsequent filtering to filter out anomalies that are just not true anomalies but something some spurious things and we can start using just reanalysis data or entering for the extended time period and MACC for the shorter one and actually we would like to compare two ways of specifying the climatology of the ozone and we are taking to 20% deviation for grid points area corrected for the latitude cosine of latitude and the minimal duration of 24 hours and so smaller anomalies will be filtered out and what we get, we are looking only for the European region and what we actually get is some kind of statistic of special distribution of anomalies, it is not like how many days with the anomaly above it but it's actually the number of events so it means that in this region we had about 200 and something events of locals on anomalies more or less pronounced over the period so another, we can obviously see that they are practically very low anomalies according to the above mentioned definition in lower latitudes and also that we have this area which can be explained by that this type of temporal variability in the ozone field is more pronounced here in North Atlantic, yeah this was negative animals and these are the positive ones and we can compare it with what we get if we are using a different definition for the normal distribution of ozone and the results are somewhat different and also the distribution will be looking to be different when we are using an extended distribution, a longer time period from 1991 but it is similar to MACC with the same definition of climatological norm of ozone and another thing is that we can analyze just briefly the temporal distribution and in fact this is what one should expect that we have much more locals on anomalies in winter time than in summer and it comes actually both to negative and positive anomalies so there are virtually no such events in summer and probably what I mentioned before that the statistical forecasting techniques for the total ozone works well only in the extended summer period so we can relate this to that as well, it's a bit different for the different definition but actually coming back to the specified case we can see it's a very, the white actually is lower than 200 dobson units, well so it's really the lowest anomaly ever recorded over Belarus and I guess over Poland, over neighboring countries even by ground-based instrumentation so if you look at their analysis it shows the development of the anomaly over several days and what we are trying to do is check how easy it is to reproduce the ozone anomaly in a general circulation model because yes we will see it is more difficult than reproducing surface weather so the quality, the outcome will be much more different for the ozone than for the surface weather so we can see that just for this case if you are using at least the T255 resolution we can indeed reproduce the, and we actually try to use different initial dates but this is like five to seven days ahead of the anomaly minima, we indeed have some anomaly, this is formed by in the last time moment we don't have it in the model just for this case so we either disappear so move some different direction and if we compare the two cycles of open AFS we have, we can see a small difference and maybe the cycle 40 is more pronounced on the last time step on the model what is actually most interesting for me is the role of the dynamical ozone in the radiation scheme and actually on these time scales as probably one should expect we can see only minimal differences between the ozone taken from climatology to the radiation scheme and prognostic ozone taken to the radiation scheme but it is not always the same so on this we can see more difference on the just on the next time step so there is indeed some difference but it is just maybe a smallest one should expect on this kind of short synoptic time scales but I'm about to finish but I would like to show just another case of anomaly it is a local ozone anomaly over many of the UK and some other parts of Europe in March 2005 it is an example for springtime anomaly and it is peculiar that this one got simulated well as compared to the previous one maybe this is because of a better representation of ozone for these years in the initial data yeah we can see it developing in the analysis and also so yeah the minimum was above the UK exactly so it's kind of interesting case and there is some difference between the cycles of the model but not that much and they are it is in principle it is reproduced well in both model cases model cycles and also in this case both with the climatological and prognostic ozone the result is almost the same and it is much more similar to the analysis than those 1997-1998 case okay thank you


Right, this is what we're talking about. It's digitally generated, kind of random. Let's take a chance, try another one. If it says error, then I still have a job because I'm not a digital artist or that's never how I thought of myself. I'm an IT guy. But Sydney runs a very, very small digital humanities operation so the IT guy does the crawling under the desk to make things work and everything else, including turning myself into a digital artist, which you can probably tell by my liking for grey. Even my hair has finally got with the program. I'm rather an unlikely digital artist. But here we go. And to be honest, I actually find quite a lot of the stuff that this strange program that I've been working on really, really beautiful. But I know something. I didn't put the beauty in there. So the question for me has always been, well, where did it come from? But let's just cover off where we started. So we started getting ready for a very small exhibition in quite a small little gallery in the Alexander Turnbull Library. Thanks very much. I am a lot more comfortable. So this, what you're seeing here, is just one of the things that Charlotte Darling, who was the research assistant on the project, did by way of getting ready for the presentation. So she was rummaging around through the Alexander Turnbull Library's collections primarily but also to Papas to put together an exhibition. The idea was that we were going to actually try and cram this. I shouldn't use my language. But what we were looking for was a winda kama. I'll use Sydney's language. So winda kama, it's this kind of idea. This is Neil Partington. This is the attic. This is Wellington Museum, just around the waterfront, up a few stairs. They pop their top floor full of stuff. And if you've never been there, I can't put in a plug for an exhibition at the Alexander Turnbull Library because it's finished already. But you could go up there and see their exhibition. It's a winda kama.  You collect a whole lot of stuff. And then, of course, you want to put it all on display so you just shove it all in there. And these collectors, these people were, in many respects, the start of museums. Here we go. This is one of Sydney's favourite museums. I've never been here. This is Pitt River Museum. Look at the organisation. Look at how it's organised. I've just picked this one because I saw Captain Cook. But this is a kind of a thematic exhibition and actually led to a bit of a change. This is one of the museums that's cited in anthropology in different ways of studying cross-cultural artefacts. So we were going to build a winda kama. But just before I leave, let's dive in there. I've lost Captain Cook. Where are you there? So there we go. That's a winda kama. That's a whole building full of cabinets, winda kama cabinets. So the theory then is that the way the theory works is that we kind of had this ant type of person that would go out and collect, collect, collect, collect. And the ants would then organise their collections. But as you can see in this dialogue here, there's another way of looking at it, which is that it's a spider. This is a fictional dialogue between an ant and a spider. And the spider has this sort of relations and lays things out too. But the critical thing to understand here is that the web is just the way that enables the spider to move. That with the web, if you capture the web, you don't actually capture the person. So coming back to what we were doing, we were trying to do an exhibition about William Colenso. And this, I think, is the closest thing that I could find to Sydney's conception of what we were trying to do. That we were trying to, this is called a mesh work, that we were trying to do a thematic organisation of the life of William Colenso. And I need to just ask you, if any of you know what William Colenso was doing between 1852 and 1856, that is one of these big white spaces here. You see he got tossed out of the church in 1852, and he came back as a politician in 1856. And it's very little known. So if you think of this as all of the different ways of tracking William Colenso's progress, then there's a big vacuum. And Sydney's interested in that, theoretically, and so on. So what she did, this is where it gets really weird, is she went to Mitchell Whitelaw, who's a real digital artist, and he built this thing, a tool called succession. And it generates things by pulling down images about Newcastle on Tyne. So that's not, for me, a particularly evocative one, but some of them are really beginning of the industrial revolution sort of types of creations. That's more like it. And you can drill into that from the pics there. So she said, Rhys, localise that. Bring it, repurpose it to be the digital component of the exhibition on Colenso. So we started. Now I'm going to start showing you what I was working on and talking about the process. So the computer side of it starts with these numbers here.  Most of them mine, but Charlotte's one, and also one that's been around for a while that was done by MTG and Hawkes Bay. So I started with those two, and at some stage I got a chance to talk to Mitchell, and he said that he'd spent three months, I think it was, where he spent half his time writing code and developing it and changing it, and half of his time curating the images that his work drew on in order to achieve the aesthetic that he wanted. Now there are some computer scientists out there, presumably, who are quite happy with the word aesthetic, but for most of us that's a little bit scary, and the idea that no-one's going to give you a specification for what you're producing. They're going to expect that you go backwards and forwards between your data, what you mean you haven't got clean data. No, you select the data, you write the program, and out of that going round and round on what's in your head, you get to your goal point. Bit scary, bit scary, but I pressed on. We pressed on. So next step is this. I had some tools that I needed for that horrid angular that I was working with and lots of XML, working with Digital New Zealand API, and some bits and pieces there that you will recognise if you're very long-sighted. So we won't dwell on that. This is half of it. This is the back room. This is what happens in what passes for a server environment. This is a shell script. You definitely need grey hair for this. I wanted to point that thing out up there. There's a strange string. That's the Digital New Zealand API. That's my personal API. One of the things that we bumped into was that there were some things that we could do online in an app, and anything that involved the API couldn't be done. We couldn't give that away in a wear-back. So that's up there. Here we go. This is what the back calculation produces. It produces a set of effectively Digital New Zealand APIs, but it's been filtered. Firstly, on whether we're allowed to remix it, as a consequence of that, the digital exhibition is not located in the Turnbull. It's probably closest to Papa, but there are only two or three things that come out of the Turnbull, and those are the things that they put into pilot releases to Flickr Commons and other places like that. Most of the Turnbull stuff, they haven't sorted out copyright, and getting entangled in trying to sort out copyright for 100, 200, whatever that number was was quite beyond the scope of what we were doing. So a bit of filtering, and some of these are a bit strange. Some of the resources that Digital New Zealand classed as images were wear-backs or actual HTML pages, and there was a bit of wear-scraping involved in getting a straight image out of what was supplied up by Digital New Zealand. That's the back end, the front end. Well, you've seen the front end. It's a wear-back application. It's delivered... I don't know if you can see it up there, but it's delivered by white-out-of-press.gitlab.io slash unexpected.  So we're randomly selecting out of those resources that were kind of curated by me, mostly, and then we're performing random operations on them. The operations are happening in your browser and come from out of the operations that are provided by browsers through a set of operations called blending that happen on canvases, which are the viewing surfaces inside your browser. OK, off the end of it. Off the end of it, we get unexpected. While I just figure out a conclusion here, let's just try our luck. I want to mention just one little... well, the best thing about this, if you don't like it, you just push the button again. And then you have this marvellous thing. What's happening in my head? Why don't I like that? Why do I like that? How did that happen? But coming back to Sydney's purpose, the thing is really to provide a new way of looking at those collections. Now, to be honest, I think most of the people who came into the little gallery struggled with what to do with the iPad that had been kind of nailed on the wall, and we didn't get the interaction right. There were actually too many totally unexpected, for me, issues in dealing with how to get people to interact with a thing on the wall. I spent all my time trying to harden it so that it would actually survive to really manage to do much about how we interact with it. Really, really challenging issues. I shouldn't be loose on any type of computing appliance that pretends to be a kiosk because I can make them go wherever I want. There are a few individuals who visited the Alexander Turnwall Libraries Gallery during that time that it was on who also know how to make iPads go wherever they want, and sometimes they took them to some unsafe places, really. Scary. So, where are we going from now? Where are we headed? It was a tiny job that I never got around to which was coming back and digging out a piece of work that was done for NDF in 2012. A similar way of providing a kind of random, thought-provoking way of looking at a collection. Let's see if this still goes. I'll just hit the Make the Magic button. There we go, floods. Oh, I want images. OK. Maybe now we can do a little better with that out of what we've learned. But what Sydney wants to do is actually take some of those images that unexpected was generating and take them back to her letterpress and her other lithographs and her other technologies and kind of, how do you say it, sort of back to the future. So we've kind of gone to the future with this digital stuff. She wants to take it back and have the old machines turn out some of this new stuff. Again, just as totally different ways of interacting with the collections. Right. I got to the end. Thank you for listening, by the way. Thank you. That was a beautiful journey. Is this one back on? Thank you. Yeah, that was a beautiful journey that you took us on there. Just before I throw questions to the floor, I have one myself. You're talking about Sydney wanting to take some of those images and turn them into physical images again. When people are generating images through the web app, is there a way for you to save or export the things you create? Great. Okay. Thanks for that question. I completely forgot one of my tabs. Two months ago, I filed an issue in my GitLab. Allow a composition's URL to be saved and have it regenerated from that URL. I should have been able to do that in five minutes. It's a relatively straightforward refactoring of that Angular code. But in the meantime, Angular's moved on. It's a whole new version, a completely different tool chain. But the plan is that that's going to give it. So if you like, the random pushing the button is going to generate a URL, and you can bookmark that, and whenever you want, you can just bring that URL back to life in your browser, and the browser will recreate. So we'll put all the random bit into the generation of kind of like a code and then the browser can just rebuild that whenever you like. As you can see, I started... I've made the issue two months ago. I've created a branch. I've done lots of work. It's pretty pathetic at the moment, but it's coming. It was supposed to be ready today, but... Is there any plan to allow people to choose a few images to then generate the artwork? Is it always going to be random? With the caveats that... Well, maybe it's time that we actually talk to the digital New Zealand people. This would be a strange but wonderful way of doing something new with the stories that people generate on digital New Zealand. So that would be over to them, and of course, I think they'd be most welcome to do that. Halfway houses are a little bit tricky because the press doesn't really want to be in that particular thing, but there are certainly possibilities. If Mitchell's okay with releasing that code, I think it's probably time we had that conversation. Sydney had that conversation with Mitchell, and if he's okay with that, then we'll just be making the whole GitLab project minus my API key available. So I hope there's progress on that one way or another. Well, join me in thanking Rhys again for this presentation. Thank you.


Some 40 years ago, the Secretary General of the UN decided to establish what is called the United Nations University. It's not a regular university, but it's a global network of scholars. The first institute established under the UNU was WIDA, the World Institute for Development Economics Research, established to do research in development economics. Over the years, WIDA has built up a global network, and at any one point in time, we now have about 300 agreements or contracts with institutions across the world, with individuals across the world, and this network includes both senior Nobel Prize takers, we actually have no less than 12 of them in our network, as well as early career researchers. We bring these people together, we work with them to produce research. Vietnam used for many years to be the largest aid recipient country in the world in absolute terms. A lot of people think that Vietnam never received aid. They say that it was only Vietnam's own efforts that has created the development we see in Vietnam. That has played a big role, but aid has helped. We were asked to investigate what works in aid, what can be scaled up, what can be transferred, what can be learned from 40 to 50 years of experience with foreign aid. We also looked at what are some of the lessons that can be learned, what has not worked in aid. We basically brought together a network of no less than 300 researchers from something like 60 countries, and we have then produced working papers, 240 working papers on foreign aid issues, all kinds of dimensions of aid. The overall message from the RECOM aid research that we have been doing is that aid does contribute in a positive way, in a statistically significant way, to the development process. We study the development process, trying to control for other factors. We can isolate the impact of aid, and when you provide a country 10% of its GDP in aid over a period of time, sustained period of time, then actually such countries, they have more than 1%, actually around 1.3% additional growth. This is important. That's not a small number. This helps further the development process. We've looked at this from around 1970, which is around the time where data become reliable up until 2007. And that period is long enough for us to actually be able to get the data to tell a story. I have for many years been interested in trying to do work on time series where you have data over a longer period of time for individual countries. And a couple of years ago, Caterina Eusilius, who is one of the leading specialists in this area, agreed to work with us under the RECOM program. So we've analyzed 36 African countries, and in 27 of those, we find very clear evidence that aid works pretty much as our economic theory or economic models tells us. So aid impacts on investment in a good, positive way. Aid impacts on growth in a good, positive way. And aid does not undermine public budgets in the aid recipient countries. So overall, we can conclude that there is substantial evidence to suggest that aid has worked in a good and constructive way in a very large majority of the countries that we study. Ghana and Tanzania are two countries that have had particularly big breaks in their development processes, both centered around major events in their economic and social and political developments. And these breaks you have to take account of when you do your analysis. For example, in the case of Tanzania, it's important that you analyze the period before and after 1986 separately, because the two so-called policy regimes were very different. When you do that, then a rather convincing story that aid has actually helped strongly in the post-86 period comes out. We do not disagree with Rajan and Subramanian in relation to the size of the potential impact of aid on the growth process. We actually believe that the potential impact is about the same as suggested by economic models. The difference between what Rajan and Subramanian did and what we have done is that we have carefully sifted through. And we can actually show that our work suggests that the impact is statistically significant. So contrary to them, we can say that the impact is there, because they conclude that it's statistically insignificant, they're not allowed to say whether there's an impact or not. The challenge in meta-analysis is that economics is a social science. And then isolating the impact of a treatment, in this case aid, that is provided to aid recipient countries is not so easy. We cannot do this analysis in a laboratory as you can in medical experiments. So what you do in meta-analysis is that you bring together results from different studies and you consider each study an illustration of this relationship between aid and what happens in the developing country. Now we don't have perfect comparability as you have in medical research. We therefore have to be very careful when we draw the conclusions out from such work. Dukl Jager's and Paldem, they studied what they felt that 68 studies done before 2005 can say about the relationship between aid and growth. They concluded that there is no statistically significant relationship. This means in their interpretation that there is no impact to be spoken of of aid on growth. We revisited that. We went through the data, we went through the methodology and we made a series of choices which differ. As you know, economics professors can often disagree about methodological choices. And I'm not going to here go into the details of that. But what I can say is that when we make what we believe are better assumptions as to how to analyze these 68 studies, we reach a different conclusion. We conclude that there is a statistically significant impact of aid and growth, which by the way is consistent with the results from our other tools, from our other types of analysis. So we believe that in some ways the meta work without telling necessarily the full truth forms a part of the puzzle that actually fits with the rest. So it is on this basis that we have concluded that this particular piece of work adds further evidence to our overall conclusion that aid works. Aid is of course provided for many reasons with many objectives in mind. Aid is provided to save lives. Aid is meant to do a lot of different things. If you refrain from thinking about that for just one second and say let's now just consider aid as an economic resource, as an investment, what would that tell you when you try to do the analysis? If you are a banker or an investment broker, you are interested in the return on your investment. What we have uncovered is that there is an overall aggregate return on aid, which is about 7.3 percent on average over a sustained period. Now this is a very good return. This is better than what most institutions these days actually get on their investments. And this return ends up with the poorest people of the world. You can say that because essentially what we have done is that we have said there is no single methodology that can tell us the full story about aid and growth. There is no single methodology that you can say is the only one that can help provide insights into this relationship. So you can compare it to saying well I am using different types of binoculars for different purposes. When you use them, approach this issue from four different perspectives, we end up with the same general story that aid helps promote savings, aid helps promote investment, aid has a return and therefore helps promote growth. And we can unpack this and show that this is not just the upper income classes that benefit from this, actually aid does eventually end up also in the pockets of the poor. Since 2008, the general story that comes out not just of the income work but also of other work is the one I have been talking about. Aid basically underpins the growth process. There are different estimates of the strength of that relationship but that is not atypical in economics. We always have a range of outcomes and what we can say in terms of the aid growth relationship is that that range or those range of outcomes they lie in the positive area which is why we are confident in saying that there is a positive impact of aid and growth. But I wish to stress that that is just one element, one aim of aid but it is often used as a litmus test whether aid is actually working. The challenge of creating jobs, employment has been underestimated in terms of its importance. It has been expected that that would happen automatically. As we have seen over the past few years, it does not happen automatically. We have seen uprisings, we have seen reactions to the fact that young people did not have the jobs waiting for them that they were expecting. It is important to understand that jobs, good jobs are only created if economies are transformed, if economies develop and as part of this process that people get employment. Yes they are indeed. We can have many discussions about aid and growth, aid potential contribution to employment but at the end of the day a lot of aid is provided to help develop social sectors, to put children in school, to make their health better, to save lives. As we all know, a good and healthy life is very important for your welfare. Now this is one side of the coin. The other side of the coin is that when you are healthy you are more productive. So there is both a welfare dimension but certainly also an economic return dimension because you are much more productive if you are not sick. In the social sectors you can see a lot of real results materializing. Anybody who looks at the general statistics we have from the social sectors cannot avoid to be actually quite impressed. You see school enrollment having gone up very significantly. This is both for boys and girls and this is across the developing world. This is also in Africa. Children are now actually going to school. You also see it in an important indicator such as maternal mortality. Much fewer women than before are now actually dying when given birth and the decreases in those indicators is very significant. It has definitely helped in the transition to more sustainable institutions. It has not always been as effective as we would like to see in, for example, the consolidation of multi-party democracies. There it has often been not really sustained in ways that we would like to see. But in general it has played a positive role. But one must understand that in fragile circumstances there are going to be backlashes because aid is, after all, a relatively small part of the overall picture. What's very important when we are talking about climate change is to understand that aid cannot by itself save the world in this area. Aid is simply too small. Aid can help mobilizing other resources. Aid can help supplement sensible political decisions about the aid and climate change area. Aid alone cannot do it. The challenge is simply too big. We need to see the world relying on much more sensible approaches to the way in which we use energy. We have to develop new technology. We have to get private funds to be invested in climate-friendly ways of economic affairs. Poor countries have to use more energy as they develop. Without more energy use they will not develop. The challenge is to provide this energy in an environmentally friendly way. This means developing new technology such that the energy that is produced and used harms the environment less. The challenge is to develop these energy sources in such a way that they are available to poor people so that they can develop as the rest of the world has been doing. If they have the right possibilities, the right access to clean energy sources, they will use them. We have within the international development community to try to help them arrive at this situation where there is a win-win between development and poverty reduction on the one hand and the environment on the other. We are not there yet. There are still in lots of cases trade-offs. We cannot in all cases say that the best development solution from a poverty reduction point of view is also the best from an environmental point of view. We need to help reduce those trade-offs with what we do on technology development and in support of promoting the financial resources that are required to diminish these trade-offs. I believe that economics and development economics in particular has been going through a period where we have been very concerned about more specific interventions, more specific, more localized issues. I believe that what I sometimes refer to as bigger development economics is going to take center stage in the coming years. At the end of the day, issues around structural transformation, around inclusion and around sustainability, they are big issues. And economists and other social scientists should not shy away because if we shy away, then we're not making available for policymakers the insight that we can help provide. I would invite everybody to go to the RECOM website to try to read more, to study more and to see and appreciate the wealth of information that has actually been compiled during the RECOM research project.


Now, Roma Wines, present. Suspense! Tonight, sell me your life, starring Lee Bowman. Suspense is presented for your enjoyment by Roma Wines. That's R-O-M-A, Roma Wines. Those excellent California wines that can add so much pleasantness to the way you live. To your happiness and entertaining guests. To your enjoyment of everyday meals. Yes, right now a glassful would be very pleasant, as Roma Wines bring you... Suspense! This is the Man in Black, here for the Roma Wine Company of Fresno, California. Who tonight from Hollywood bring you as star Mr. Lee Bowman, who is currently being co-starred with Rita Hayworth and Janet Blair in the Columbia Technicolor musical Tonight and Every Night. He appears this evening as a rather embittered young man, whose life really began in spite of himself, at the very moment when he had planned to take leave of it. And so with sell me your life, and with the performance of Lee Bowman as Joe Bland, we again hope to keep you in suspense. All right, quiet down. I want to hear this guy's story. Go ahead, Bland. No. Why waste any more time? Because I'm going to hear your version of what happened. I'm going to hear it now.  You think I'm going to spend any time now trying to convince you I ought to live? What difference does it make?  Let's have the story. I don't get it. You're not going to believe any part of it, and you know it. So far as you're concerned, I'm already in the chair. We'll see. Go on with the story. Do you believe that tonight I was standing on top of the railing of the Grand Street Bridge ready to jump? Do you? No. No, of course you don't. All right, keep going. That's where I was, and that's what I was about to do. Do you know how it feels, Lieutenant? Standing there, then all of a sudden making your decision. I didn't worry too much about being seen. I was too late at night, and the mist was too heavy. I looked down at the black water. Then I closed my eyes. I caught my breath, and then the headlights hit me. In the next second, I knew the driver had seen me. I heard the car stop and the door open. I couldn't move. I couldn't jump on over, and I couldn't climb back down. I just stood there and listened to the footsteps come toward me and stop. What do you think you're doing? A woman. The footsteps should have told me that, but they didn't. I got my first good look at her then. Dark hair, about 30, and, yeah, a knockout. Come on. Come on down. Why don't you get back in your car and go on about your business?  You? That's right. A gesture as big as that deserves an audience. I'll see that you have one. Well, I'm waiting. That's more like it. Okay, the place is yours. No, no, wait.  I want to help you. Why? What difference does it make to you? Here, let's get in the car. There's nothing you or anybody else can do. Can't you see I... Oh, you're tired, aren't you? How long have you been walking? I don't know. Hours, I guess. Then come on. At least I can give you a lift to your next bridge. I can't explain it, but I guess I just didn't have much fight left in me. Because there I was, driving on off the bridge. And all of a sudden, I found myself spilling the whole thing. I told her how a certain pal of mine juggled the company books, my books as well as his, about how he could never admit I was innocent because he dropped over dead this morning, about how the auditors would be through by tomorrow and I'd be up for embezzlement. Yeah, I can see by your face. You think that old corny story? That's true. Well, I told her about it and about how that would put me away for good because it wouldn't make my third conviction. Then I told her, and I knew she wouldn't believe that either, but I told her just the same. I was innocent of those previous crimes, as innocent as I was of this one. Innocent of all of them, is that right? Yes. Well, why don't you let me out here? Thanks very much for everything. Wait, wait. That money they think you took. Wouldn't it help if you could somehow make it good? Sure. All I gotta do is walk in tomorrow morning and plank down $1,000. Only $1,000? Only $1,000. And I've got $4.62 in my pocket. Well, there's someone I want you to meet. What? Who? Your future employer, I hope. His name is Andrew Baudin. Baudin? The banker? Yes. You see, I miss Baudin. That won't work. Well, you've no reason to say that. My husband has helped hundreds of people. It can't work. The breaks I've been getting will go right on and there's nothing you can do to stop him. My life's over, I tell you. It's spent. No, no, not yet. It isn't. And if you don't want it, I'll take it. Oh, please. But just one hour. Sell me your life. What have you got to lose? She took me into the Baudin place and we came straight to the library here. That's where Mr. Baudin would be, she said. But then, when she opened the door, I saw a young-looking guy. He was over there, working at the desk. Oh, I'm sorry, Mr. Faraday. It was just that I expected my husband. Oh, another one of those conferences, I'm afraid. He was called away only a few moments ago. That's unfortunate. Oh, this is Mr. Faraday, my husband's secretary. I don't know you. Well, thank you. I don't believe I heard your name, Mr. Baudin. If you don't mind, Mr. Faraday, I wonder if you'd excuse us. Well, certainly, certainly. My work's pretty well cleared up, anyway. Good night, Mrs. Baudin. Good night. See, the fact that my husband isn't here right now isn't really going to matter too much. I'm appealing to you for help. Appealing to me? For help? Yes. During the time you've been under sentence, you've naturally had considerable contact with... Well, criminals.  I... I guess I don't get what you... My husband's life is in danger. I'm sure of it. In danger? But from what? No. No, I shouldn't tell you whom I suspect. I want you to find that out.  The most important, I... I want you to give my husband protection. How? By watching him. By observing everyone who comes in contact with him. Whether casually... or regularly. Oh, yes, would you just step over there to the desk? No, no, no, no, behind it. Now, that first drawer on the left. That's one? Yes, that's it. Open it.  Mm-hmm. My husband calls it his trust fund. It's always there to help those he feels deserve help. Cut off ten of them. Please, please, go on. Why? I... I can't do that. It isn't charity. In your case, it's salary. And it will settle up that difficulty at your office. Now, I want it. If it doesn't, we can always add to it. Yeah, but... But you don't know anything about me. You don't even know what I... I was coming to that. You'll probably start work for us tomorrow and... Oh, yes, here's a pad. If you'll just jot down where we can reach through. Do you mind? No. Of course not. It's the Rex Hotel. They've got a pay phone in the lobby. I put the number down there. Good. That should do it.  Forgetting something? My name. I put it down, too. It's Bland. Joe Bland. Well, I'm happy to know you, Joe. Haven't you forgotten something? Me? What? $1,000.  I wish I knew how to thank you. I'll tell you. Just stay alive. I took the slow way home tonight because... Well, whether you believe it or not, Vance, there was a lot of thinking I wanted to do. Mostly about that woman I'd met. And while I was climbing upstairs to my room, I realized what she'd really done. All because of her. I'd sort of been born again. I let myself into my room and switched on the overhead light. All right, Joe. Just put your hands up. There you were, Vance. Sitting in a chair across the room. I'd never seen you before. That's it. I'll just keep them up. I'm Vance, police headquarters. Now stand still while I check you over. The office. I didn't think they'd get to that till tomorrow. That's so... Mm-hmm. Here we are. $1,000. Serial number. G6. That's it. All right, where's the rest? The rest? Well, that's all there is. That's what I thought. It took you long enough to get here. I was going to turn that over to the company in the morning. The company? What company? My company. I don't know what you're talking about. Just tell me where you put the gun. The gun? You hid that too, huh? Wait a minute. I never had any gun. What is this? I don't know what you're...  Anybody who'd leave his name, address, and phone number on his victim's desk can't be very bright. I just posted a reward for the guy who robbed and then murdered Andrew Bodine. Looks like I'm the guy who's going to collect it. What? Andrew Bodine murdered? Ha, ha, ha. As if you didn't know, sweetheart. Come on, we're going back out there. Tonight for Suspense, Roma Wines are bringing you a star, Mr. Lee Bowman, whom you have heard in the first act of Sell Me Your Life by Emile C. Tepperman. Tonight's tale of Suspense. This is Truman Bradley for Roma Wines. Elsa Maxwell is recognized internationally as an authority on gracious living. You will be interested in something she said the other day about wine and wartime food rationing. Listen. I find that people who know one simple secret of serving delicious meals aren't bothered much by food rationing. That secret is to enjoy good Roma wine with food. For instance, I recently had dinner with some old friends. The main dish was kidney bean casserole. And to give this simple food a delightful party flavor, my host has served cool Roma California Burgundy. Everyone remarked about its wonderful bouquet and aroma, and about the way that good Roma Burgundy added enjoyment to our plain meal. Such added enjoyment is one of the reasons why more and more people serve delightful Roma wine. That's a grand suggestion from Elsa Maxwell. So why not try Roma California Burgundy with your dinner tomorrow night? You'll enjoy its tart pecansi, its fruity robust taste, the happy result of selecting luscious wine grapes from California's choicest vineyards guided to perfection by the ancient wine skill of Roma's famed wineries. Good Roma wines never vary. They're always enjoyable, yet cost only pennies a glass. Remember, more Americans enjoy Roma than any other wine. R-O-M-A, Roma wines. And now it is with pleasure that we bring back to our soundstage Lee Bowman as Joe Bland, who has been saved from death by suicide only to face a murder charge. A situation well calculated to keep you in suspense. We came back here to the Bodine's library. The room was packed, loaded with police and reporters.  He was stretched out behind the desk, covered with a sheet. Hey, Brian, look over this way, right into the camera. That's it. I'm about this guy's fingerprints, Lieutenant. We got him off his police record. They matched the prints on the desk drawer, all right. I worried the money wasn't me. I know, he admits taking the money, a thousand of it, says Mrs. Bodine told him to take it. Anything else?  Has he admitted shooting Lincoln yet? Looks like you. Oh, here's that secretary. For a day, we've been waiting for you. I'm very sorry, Lieutenant, but I was with Mrs. Bodine. She's rather hard hit. Well, here's the guy. Can you identify him? Well, I should be able to. It was less than an hour ago that I saw him. Here? Yes, in this room. He was with Mr. Bodine. Mr. Bodine? Well, that's a joint. Quiet. You'll have your chance.  Well, Mr. Bodine was talking with him, trying to work out some way to help him. Why you? You probably know of the old man's habit of picking up, well, bums, giving them money, trying to get them work. I'd want him time and time again. We know about that. Just go on with the story.  I told you to keep still. What for? So we can fill up that phony story? Listen, Vance, I want to see Mrs. Bodine. She was with me all the time. I told you that. She can stop this whole thing in two minutes. She... She can if Faraday here hasn't done something to her. Why, this fellow must be insane. I want to see Mrs. Bodine. Now. She's in no condition to be disturbed. Furthermore, she has no connection, whatever, with this case. Oh, no? Let me give you some advice, Blaine.  Well, the old man, Mr. Bodine, asked me to leave him alone. So I went right to my room down the hall. There was nothing else I could do. Then? Well, it must have been about 15 minutes that I heard a shot. I rushed in here and... And there was Mr. Bodine. He was dead. What about Blaine? Gone. Well, that's pretty fast. Since you were only down the hall, you'd have seen him leave, wouldn't you? Well, not if he left by that window there. And that's just what he did. It was wide open just as it is now, sir. No sign of the gun, huh? No, nor the money. Almost $21,000 missing.  You know something? You're going to tell me where the rest of that dough is. You can find that out from Faraday. You're also going to tell me about that gun. You can also find that out from Faraday. Can't you see it? He's the killer. You can forget that right now.  You haven't a chance. You haven't any kind of a case at all. Forget Mrs. Bodine in here. You'll see what kind of a case I have. You'll see what kind of a case he's got, too. I've had enough of this. Hey, you! I'll get her myself. Hey, come back here! You're not going anywhere! Mrs. Bodine. Oh, dear. Oh, Mrs. Bodine. I didn't want you to be disturbed. Now, please. Please, you'd better go back to your room at once. It's all right, Mr. Faraday. I kept hearing my name called. I'm Lieutenant Vance, Mrs. Bodine. This man here beside me. Do you happen to know who he is? This man? Yeah, me. I've never seen him before in my life.  Well, I did it, Vance.   Car 64, Raymond. Go to the corner of Hill in 20th. 229, that is all. You're doing some thinking, are you, Bland? Well, I'm afraid it's a little too late. I was doing some thinking. I wasn't going to let it be too late. I couldn't let it be too late. How about it, kid? Anything you want to say? Yeah, I'd like a cigarette. Give him a cigarette, Tannen. Me, uh, I got to watch the road. Okay, but keep your eye on him, too. Hey, hey, what are you? I guess my gun, Tannen.  You ruckus. He's after my gun. Hey, look out. Okay, okay, Tannen, just pull the car to a stop and don't reach for your gun. Now, I might need to.  This will never work. I'll try anything, even suicide. I didn't, you know. I'll stay there till I get... The van's out! Okay, now you come out. No, no, don't touch the keys. Just come out. It'll never work. You'll be shot down on sight. Not for a while, baby. Not in a police car. Check on a 13. 100 block forest, that is all. Attention all cars, attention all cars. Joe Bland, a cute slayer, has just stolen police car 4-6. Then I heard it. Over the car radio. This man must be apprehended. He is desperate. Shoot to kill. That is all. Attention all cars. Report from police car 1-3. Bland has just been sighted passing Serrano Street. Speeding all but unfounded. All cars proceed toward northern end fountain intercept, that is all. Now crossing Selma and Riverdale. Car 19-62. Form road block next intersection. Cars 20-13. Cut off rear escape. Attention, attention. Bland just sighted abandoning car. Running east on Selma. Stop him. This man must not escape. Somehow, some way by running up alleys, by hitching rides, I got back to the Bodine Place. The library window, the one they said I used to escape, was still open. I climbed into the room that way. My luck still held. Faraday was there. Filling with papers at the desk. Listening to the radio. Okay, turn it off. I said turn it off. Now, stay where you are. How, how call the police? Put that down.  It doesn't matter. You heard what they said. The police have picked up your trail. They'll be here any minute. This won't take long. What, what are you going to do? Give you the best break you ever had.  Also the $20,000. I'm taking them off your hands.  I told you I was giving you a break.    What do you mean? Do you really think she's going to split with you? Share the old man's will and insurance money? Why should she? You see, why should she? Shouldn't she have it all? I don't get your point. Why shouldn't she turn you over too? See where that would put her? Then there'd just be her. I don't have to listen to this. You're a... Figure it out. Did she have anything whatever to do with murdering that man? Anything except working on how you'd be the guy who'd do it? The minute I left here tonight? Well, hi. How did you know? Did Lenore... Lenore is it? Suppose you were nailed by the cops. Would Lenore be loyal to you? I didn't hurt her to be loyal to anybody. Hi. If Lenore Bodine had a choice between being sole owner of a million bucks and sticking her neck out with yours, what do you honestly think she'd do? All right. Where's the money? I... I don't know what to do. Where is it? Okay, there they are, the cops. Are they going to find that money on you or her? You've got less than a minute, Faraday. What's it going to be? Stop! Where are you going? To get the money. It's in my room. Just a minute. You're staying here, my friend. Let go. Toss your gun on the floor, Mr. Bland. I think we can get along with mine. Okay. But you're a couple of seconds too late. You see, I can tell the cops where to find that dough. Oh, no. You won't tell the cops anything. You won't be able to talk.  I shot you in self-defense. Stand over there. You're too late. They're already here, and they'll know it wasn't self-defense. Faraday, that window there! Close it! Don't move! If she kills me, you're as good as dead. Because you'll take the rap alone. She'll tell the cops where to find that dough and... Wait. Get away from him. Get away. I'm going to shoot. No. You'll tell the police. You'll sell me out.  Why did you listen to him? Nobody's going to tell the police. Nobody's... Get away from him!  I won't let you sell me out.  Get away from me! Stop it!  I killed him. I killed him. All right. All right, play. I killed him. I killed him. Mr. Boudin. I killed him. You've got to stop. Yes, I've got the gun. But I was too late. I tried to get it out of his hand before he... before he shot apparently. But I was too late. No, that's not true, Vance. Don't even budge.  This guy at Bland's killed another one. There you are, Vance. That's the story. And like I said, you don't believe it. It doesn't matter anyway. I can't win. Let's use the trine. Come on. Let's go on back to headquarters. Lieutenant, please see that he stays in the car this time. Don't worry, Mrs. Boudin. He won't be back here again. You all set, Lieutenant? Yeah. Want me to bring this gun along? Yeah, exhibit A. Careful you don't smudge any of the prints on it. All right. Okay, boy. Prints. Prints. Fingerprints. Huh? Yeah, fingerprints on that gun. Well, that's it, Vance. My prints aren't on it. They never were on it. Only hers. Because she's the only one who ever used it. That's not true. Prints. No fingerprints on a gun. No fingerprints on... Yeah. The window. That window over there, Vance. The one you said I opened. Listen. The catch on that window. It doesn't have my fingerprints. It only has faradays. Or yours, Mrs. Boudin. Oh, he's lying. Don't listen to him. Yeah. Look, Bland. So it doesn't have your fingerprints on it. Maybe you wore gloves, huh? If I... If I had, I wouldn't have left prints on that desk drawer, Vance. That's the drawer where the money was. And, incidentally, you'll find that doe in Faraday's room. How about it, Lieutenant? Convinced? I'd rather think I am. What about you, Mrs. Boudin? Are you convinced? Yes. Yes, I suppose I am. Well, it looks as though Mr. Bland will have company on his drifter headquarters. Ready? I'm afraid I won't. I'm afraid I won't have the pleasure of joining you. Thanks very much, anyway.  It was a little matter of embezzlement, I believe. I'm so sorry I wasn't able to help you on that. Oh, you did all right. That five grand reward you posted. I think I've won it, don't you? Now, wait a minute. The guy's got a point, Mrs. Boudin. The way I see it, that reward ought to take care of the embezzlement charge with quite a nice sum left over. Looks like you got gypped, Lenore.  I think you'll pay for it with your own. And so closes, sell me your life, starring Lee Bowman. Tonight's study in Suspense. Suspense is produced, edited and directed by William Spear. And now, here's a brief message from that noted authority on smart and pleasurable entertaining, Elsa Maxwell. Most of the parties I'm giving these days are simple affairs, and when I entertain, I always serve well-chilled Roma California sherry before dinner and later in the evening. You'll find that glorious amber-golden Roma sherry is a gracious touch that's sure to get the meal off to a good start and adds to the evening's pleasure. And don't worry about fancy glasses. It's the wine that's important. So be sure it's that good Roma wine, because Roma wines are so reasonably priced any family can afford to serve them regularly. Yes, Roma wines cost only pennies a glass, so enjoy them often. Serve Roma with your everyday meals. Roma wine is delicious, for Roma quality never varies. Remember, more Americans enjoy Roma than any other wine. R-O-M-A, Roma wines. And the next time you use Bermuth, either sweet or dry, choose Roma Bermuth. Zestful, full-flavored, blended, melode, and developed with all the traditional quality wine-making skill of Roma wineries. Yet surprisingly low-priced. Try it soon, will you? Next Thursday, same time, you will hear Mr. Thomas Mitchell as star of Suspense. Presented by Roma Wines, R-O-M-A. Made in California for enjoyment throughout the world. Please listen to this. Male from home can mean the difference between a good soldier and a poor soldier. Between a man who knows why he is fighting and a homesick boy who knows only bitterness and indifference. Write short, frequent letters. Never mind about that great big long letter that never seems to get written. And always use V-Mail. It is the surest way to get your letter overseas. V-Mail. This is CBS, the Columbia Broadcasting System.


Personal Finance PowerPoint Presentation, Home Appraisal. Get ready to get financially fit by practicing personal finance. Most of this information can be found at Investopedia, what you should know about home appraisals, which you can find online, looking up the references and resources, continuing your research from there. This is by Amy Fontinier, updated November 15, 2021, what you should know about home appraisals. Whether you're buying a home using a mortgage, refinancing your existing mortgage, or selling your home to anyone other than an old cash buyer, a home appraisal is a key component of the transaction. So typically when we have real estate transactions, say for example, you're purchasing a home, usually you can't put all the cash down for the purchase of the home. Typically you're going to need some kind of financing. That's when the loan comes into play, when the bank or financial institution or lender comes into play, and typically they're going to want to have the home as collateral in the event that you don't pay back the loan. So they have a recourse on the home, and in order to feel good about that, they have to have basically a value of the home and have an idea of what the value of the home so they can compare the risk on the loan with it. So if you're a buyer, owner, or seller, you'll want to understand how the appraisal process works and how an appraiser determines a home's value. What is an appraisal? An appraisal is an unbiased professional opinion of a home's value. Appraisals are almost always used in purchase and sales transactions and commonly in refinance transactions as well. In a purchase and sale transaction, an appraisal is used to determine whether the home's contract price is appropriate given the home's condition, location, and features. So clearly you would think typically if there's going to be a non-related buyer and seller, the negotiated price between the two of them will have a market price because you have two people interacting, hopefully with all the information necessary in order to make that interaction who have desires that are contrary to each other, and that's kind of how the market works. But obviously, as the lender is in place here, in particular, want to make sure that this is like a legit transaction. Obviously, you can imagine situations where something isn't kind of an arm's length transaction or one side of the transaction doesn't know all the information and therefore cannot make the appropriate decision or you've got family kind of situations involved, in which case it's not like an arm's length transactions as they say or typical market transactions with two people that are not related within the transaction. In a refinanced transaction, an appraisal assures the lender that it isn't handing the borrower more money than the home is worth. So if you're refinancing, then you're not really looking at the two individuals, you're looking at the, in other words, a buyer and a seller, you're looking at the person who owns the home and the other individual or entity being the bank or financial institution or the lender. Obviously, the lender is once again concerned that if they're going to be lending money that they have a good safeguard in the home itself in the event that the loan isn't paid back. Clearly, the bank does not want to loan more money than the value of the home and typically they want a nice cushion, possibly like a 20% cushion, so that you are solidly invested in the home and do not have the incentive to walk away from the home if the home was to go down in value and the loan was higher than the home value that puts incentives on people to say, why am I sticking around here and there's less incentive and the bank could get stuck with a home that has a value that is less than the loan amount which makes it difficult to be able to sell and recoup and so on. So lenders want to make sure that homeowners are not over-borrowing for a property because the home serves as collateral for the mortgage, so they want recourse, they want to be able to, if you default on the home, be able to foreclose on it. Now remember the relationship here, that doesn't mean, I always have to point this out because it's common kind of language for people to say, well, the bank owns 80% of my home and that's not really true, that's kind of an overstatement, it's an exaggeration, it's meant to be like funny, I think when you first kind of started, I own a home but the bank owns 80% of it but that's not really the case, right? You own the home and you took out a loan to finance the home which is equal to, you know, you could say 80% of the home. That's different though because you got the home on the books as an asset and then you got the liability on the books as the loan, as the liability. The net is the net values, that's the net effect on assets minus liabilities but it's not like the bank again, can't really do what it would be able to do if they actually owned 80% of the home.   So if you don't pay back the loan, that's when they have recourse on the loan in the amount of foreclosure. In that event, then they want to make sure that the home's value is worth at least as much as the home as the loan amount so that they can sell the home, they can go through the costs of doing so and pay off the loan. They don't want to do that because they're not in the business of selling homes during the business of making interest but they want the security, it's just like anything else. We have the capacity to come out and do this even if it's like the nuclear threat, right? We want to be able to say that we can do this in the event that you foreclose and we'll do it, we'll do it but we really don't want to, right? That's one way to look at it in any case. So if the borrower should default on the mortgage and go into foreclosure, the lender will sell the home and recoup the money it lent. So that's what they're going to do in the worst case kind of scenario if they have to do that. So the appraisals helps the bank protect itself against lending more than it might be able to recover in this worst case scenario. So again, that's worst case scenario, not just for us as the home purchaser but for the bank too. They don't really want to go through the process of the foreclosure and the sale and whatnot. They just want to get paid their interest on the loan that they're going out. So the appraisal process and how values are determined because the appraisal primarily protects the lender's interest, the lender will usually order the appraisal. So clearly the lender is the one that's concerned here so they're going to want an appraisal that they trust. They then will likely be the ones that are going to be determining who's going to be doing the appraisal and so on and so forth. So an appraisal costs several hundred dollars and the borrower generally pays the fee. According to the appraisal institute and association of professional real estate appraisers, a qualified appraiser should be licensed or certified as required in all states, all 50 states, and be familiar with the local area. Per federal regulations, the appraiser must be imported, must be impartial and have no direct or indirect interest in the transaction. So clearly if the appraiser is actually getting, has a financial interest in the outcome of their appraisal, they at least look impartial. They look like they might be biased and may actually be biased. Clearly the point of the appraisal is to have an independent third person that both parties hopefully can trust to make an accurate appraisal process. So a property's appraisal value is influenced by the recent sale of similar properties and by current market trends. So note that the appraisal is far from perfect because you know you can have different people making the appraisal pretty different conclusions depending on the circumstances. And there's also a whole lot of different kind of techniques that you could use for appraisals although those techniques will be more standardized depending on the type of appraisal that is being put in place. But notice that every property is unique. The piece of land is unique. It's a unique location. The home itself, although it might be a track home or something like that, similar is still unique and therefore all you can do is kind of compare to other sales that took place which happened at different times because the point in time that we're going to sell this particular property is once again unique. And so you're comparing that to other properties that sold at a similar kind of time. So you take all that into consideration and you're seeing that the appraisal is a pretty big estimate. It's just going to be an estimate. You don't know what the market value is. What does the market value mean? It means that's what it sells for in a market. How do you know what that is? You sell it. But how do you know what it is without selling it? Well, it's kind of hard to do that. You got to kind of make an appraisal an estimate which is very estimatory. So the home's amenities, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, the floor plans, functionality and the square footage are also key factors in assessing the home's value. The appraiser must perform a complete visual inspection of the interior and exterior. Note any conditions that adversely affect the property's value such as needed repairs. What is an appraisal report? So we got the report here. Typically appraisers use the uniform residential appraisal report from Fannie Mae for single family homes. This helps for some kind of standardization as well. So notice there's pros and cons to kind of standardizations for these kinds of things. Clearly, if it wasn't as standardized, then you know, different companies might provide more or less in terms of their appraisals and you can find different appraisals that have better and whatnot. But when you standardize the reports, then you can kind of do a side-by-side comparison between what one company does to another in a more standard fashion, which is nice. So the report asks the appraiser to describe the interior and exterior of the property, the neighborhood, and nearby comparable sales. The appraiser then provides an analysis and conclusion about the property's value based on their observations. The appraisal report must include a street map showing the appraiser's praised property and comparable sales used. So they're going to give you an idea. This is the location. These are the other homes that we used for the comparable sales. And you can look at it and say, well, how comparable is that? How close is that? How close in time was that sale actually made and so on. An exterior building sketch, an explanation of how the square footage was calculated. Photographs of the homes front, back, and street scene, front exterior photographs of each comparable property used, other pertinent information, such as market sales data, public land records, and public tax records that the appraiser requires to determine the property's fair market value. What home buyers need to know about appraisals. When you're buying a home and are under contract, the appraisal will be one of the first steps in the closing process. If the appraisal comes in at or above the contract price, the transaction proceeds as planned. If the appraisal comes in below the contract price, however, it can delay or derail the transaction. Chances are that neither you nor the seller wants the transactions to fall through. So as the buyer, you have an advantage in that a low appraisal can serve as a negotiating tool to convince the seller to lower the price. So clearly if you do the appraisal, you've got the set price that you're determined and the appraisal falls in low, then you would think that would be a tool in terms of the buyer's side of things to say, hey, maybe we should lower the price on this thing. So the bank won't lend you or any other prospective buyer more than the home is worth. So clearly that's the key on the bank's side of things. The bank is saying, hey look, I want the appraiser to determine what the appraisal value is and I want that collateral to be in place because that's going to be safeguarding our investments here. So though appraisals help buyers avoid overpaying for homes, a seller may feel that a low appraisal is inaccurate and be reluctant to drop the price. So you might find the lower appraisal and the seller is saying, well yeah, that appraisal is wrong because they're using a standard kind of technique and again, every home is kind of is unique so the circumstances in the economy might have changed drastically over the last year or something like that and the other homes that they're sold in the area that they're based on, maybe they were sold last year and it's totally different now or something like that. So if a bad appraisal is standing between you and your home purchase or sale looking to getting a second opinion via another appraisal by a different person, appraisers can make mistakes or have imperfect information and appraisals can be affected by bias. You can also try presenting a factual case for a higher value to the original appraiser. They may agree with you and revise the evaluation. So you might then, what's the key there? What's the next step? You could say, well, I mean, if you were to say, hey, your appraisal is low, you probably have an opinion about that. Like how is it low? Why was it low? You might want to look at their calculations and say, well, what did they base this on to come up with a number that isn't what I believe it's going to be. You might talk to that particular appraisal and say, hey, look, you took up this property, that property, and that property, they were sold before this condition happened in this real estate market and there's kind of like big changes happening here, you know, and whatnot. Or you might look into another appraisal for a second opinion, obviously. So what home sellers need to know about appraisals is a seller a low appraisal if accurate means you may have to lower your home's price to get it sold. So if the appraiser comes in at a lower price, then that's going to have an impact on the seller. That's not good news for the sellers type of thing if they want to sell it at the higher price. So holding out for an all cash buyer who doesn't require an appraisal as a condition of completing the transaction is unlikely to net you a higher sales price. So you have to overpay for a home. So one method is to just avoid the appraisal process and the bank all together by finding someone that just wants to pay cash. But you'd have to find someone that wants to pay cash and is willing to pay cash over the appraisal value which is kind of a lot to ask. Unfortunately, if you're surrounded, if your surrounding area has experienced a recent distressed sales that can lower your home's appraisal value. So if you feel that your home's value has been dragged down by the sales price of nearby foreclosures and short sales, you may be able to convince the appraiser that your home is worth more if it's in significantly better condition than those properties. So they might be basing their appraisal on these properties that sold around you. But possibly those properties were sold under some kind of duress. Possibly, possibly they were sold because the person needed to leave town and they sold the home for a low price or something like that or there was a foreclosure and whatnot which could significantly lower the value of the home. And again, the appraisal is going to be based on usually the homes that were sold recently in that area. What refinancing homeowners need to know about the appraisals? If you're refinancing a conventional mortgage, a low appraisal can prevent you from doing so. So the home needs to appraise at or above the amount you want to refinance your loan to be approved. So if you're refinancing, now it's just between you and the lender. You're trying to get more money from the lender. The lender's not going to give you more money than the home is worth, meaning whatever the gap is in equity is kind of the playing field. And to know the gap in equity, meaning the difference between the loan value and the home value, you got to know what the home value is at any given time and the bank's going to want their own assurity on that end, typically. However, if your existing mortgage is an FHA mortgage, you can refinance without an appraisal through the FHA Streamline program, a great option for underwater homeowners. So how long does a home appraisal take? The appraisal process takes an average of seven to 10 days. The appraiser visits the property and spends an hour or two inspecting the home's interior, exterior, measures the square footage and evaluating the home's features and fixtures. The appraiser also compares the home to other similar recently sold homes in the neighborhood, a.k.a. the comps. After doing the physical inspection and running the comps, the appraiser writes an appraisal report. The amount of time it takes for the entire process depends on the complexity of the appraisal and the appraiser's workload or schedule. What does a home appraisal cost? Home appraisals typically cost between $300 and $450, the home location size and condition factor into the cost. Appraisers should work on a flat fee or hourly basis if the appraiser expects to be paid a percentage of the home's value. It can signal an unethical practice which should be avoided. So obviously, again, they're trying to be independent. So if they're going to get paid based on the square footage that they do, then it looks like they might have an incentive to have an opinion one way or the other. So you would think that they would have some kind of a flatter rate kind of structure so they don't look to be unindependent, which would damage the value of the whole process of them trying to be a third-party appraisal that's not involved in the process. So what happens after the appraisal? After the home appraisal is completed, the next step is mortgage underwriting. The underwriter reviews the loan file to make sure everything is in order and that all the required documents have been submitted. The underwriter then assesses the risk associated with the loan and either denies or approves the loan based on all the information. What lowers a home appraisal? The home's location has the biggest impact on the valuation. Do I have to say it? Do I have to say it? You know the three words I'm going to say. They're all the same one. They're all the same word. Location, location. Okay, I won't say the last one, but you know what the last one is too. So for example, the value will be negatively impacted if the home is in an undesirable neighborhood or situated next to a junkyard, power lines, or busy street. So no one likes to be having their home next to the junkyard unless there's some good junk in that yard that you might be able to do stuff with. Like if you're a junkyard artist or something. But in the case, though you can't change the property's location, you can do something about other factors that could lower the home appraisals. For instance, you can spruce up your curb appeal by making sure the house is clean and tidy and take care of any light repairs and routine maintenance items. So you can make your house look quite clean and tidy in comparison to the junkyard next door. So in the case you can fix up the house obviously to make it look nice would be good. The bottom line. So when everything goes smoothly, the home appraisal is just another box to check on a closing checklist. So hopefully it's just another process, right? I'm going through the appraisal process if it's part of the home purchasing process and the bank needs to check this one off. And so you would expect that it would be checked off. You're hoping the appraisal is somewhere around the purchase price that you have because that would indicate that you would think that you have a fairly accurate market price that you're dealing with. You check it off. The bank's happy. You move forward with the sale. But if there's something that happens, then obviously you take it from that point. When the appraisal value is lower than expected, the transaction can be delayed or even canceled. Regardless of which situation you encounter in your home buying, selling, or refinance experience, a basic understanding of how the appraisal process functions can only work in your favor, especially if you're buying for your first home.


TLO was pop We are on twitch We ain't live, but you can leave a like comment subscribe turn on your post notification bells Let's continue to grow the family from Chicago to the UK Right behind me. This is the Spotify playlist. We got a ratio at least a seven or better to make this I'm saying the link to it is down below in the description But as you can tell we about to do a music reaction and we made it to a premiere This is trims Sticks up free trim myza L 20. You know, it's crazy man Locked up artists is about to save the game in the UK the rap game in the UK man the drill side of it. That's tough Let's get into it though. I like trims by the way Bro hi, what are you talking about go back?   Are you gonna talk about smoke? But you make a smoke right house is rebucked I put 17 in mind But 17 is uncomfortable Like you like if you if you got up if you got a built one for the Pete, you know what never mind Allegedly The rats get smoke like cones I'm putting a spliff to get in the stone On a scale of one to ten One being stop robbing Tim being the best thing I've ever heard five being average. I'm gonna give this like a 7.2 I rock with it.  So, you know, I'm saying but I still give it like a 7.2 Keeping it real. I'm gonna go add it to the playlist man. I'm gone. Yeah, I'll leave a like comment subscribe turning up Post notice. I'm gone


Tini Blas, or darkness, a legend of Mexican wrestling has proposed to fight his last battle, but this time in the political ring to try to become mayor of a district in the east of Mexico city. Boosted by his fame, Tini Blas, whose real name is Manuel Neal, ran his candidacy for mayor of the Venustiano Querenza Municipality, a district of half a million inhabitants, and one of the municipalities with the highest number of crimes in Mexico's capital. Although Neal, 81, has little political experience, he is confident that his sensitivity to people's problems and popular appeal will give him a chance to win the election in June. That will be one of the biggest in Mexico's history. Find out more about fresh news updates


What's up everybody? Jason here from jazzy's case breaks.com. Last two flawless spots are being given away here in 1920 Canadian Chronicles NBA fat pack ground team number 101 number $500 spots each being given away here. So first we do the break super high risk high reward type of break guys We randomize customer names and teams distribute the hits out of the fat pack and at the end of the break We'll come back. We'll roll the dice again and the top two customer names out of 30 get a spot in the break And that'll be coming up next in a separate video So roll it and we got a three and a four for seven times one two three four five six and seven Chadwick on a Timothy one two three four five six seven Bucks down on the Lakers All right, so let's think what you got guys and remember Pelicans Kane got some Christopher guys Memphis Timothy has Lakers and again Let's think what you got. It's a quick break Ryan we ship out three to five business days after the break is completed. So Friday breaks Usually we ship out three to five days after that. But like I said, we're pretty quick So those should go out tomorrow So we don't count Saturday Sunday because those are not business days and we don't have our full sorting staff over the weekend Since most of them are Monday through Friday, but Breaks from Thursday Friday Saturday are gonna go out tomorrow So you'll look at it for an invoice there and any Sunday breaks that we did yesterday would go out on Wednesday night Thursday we ship out Mondays Thursdays and it kind of carries over to Tuesdays and Fridays. So You should look out for an email at some point tomorrow But it also is part it also is in our FAQ part of our page if you guys want to check it out We actually have a frequently asked questions page So just in case too, I don't think we introduced this so much, but it's there guys. You guys want to check it out Yeah, people don't like to read I guess, right? Jerry Colver Look at Donchich Steph Curry Jerry Colver R. J. Barrett Cameron Johnson Thank you Alexander Walker, Brandon Clark, Colby White, whoop Kendrick Nunn, Hawaii Leonard And Trey Young No problem, man. I know from now on people ask me shipping questions. I'm just gonna be like Just gonna stay quiet then type in Frequently asked questions Oh good, man. Yeah, three to five bits of this is usually Especially with like heavy base products like mosaic. I'm I'm really I'm giving props to the to the shipping team because they're all everything ships and and you know pretty heavy base if you think about it So Yeah, yeah, I'm a lot different from Joe. That's for sure Joe My banyan for asking that Yeah, our shipping team is a one so Same thing guys when next week remember Bowman Chrome comes out Friday, so Not saying don't expect it to go out by Tuesday But some of it might just get stuck or we might push the shipping day back to like Wednesday So that way everything goes out from Friday Saturday and Sunday and push it off to Wednesday where it's only three business days Where it's Monday Tuesday and then goes out Wednesday all right guys So like I said, this is our FAQ freaking ask questions page guys Tells you everything you need to know Boom, it's really nice actually guys to check it out Very very nice. All right guys, so let's give away the two spots in flawless All right, let's roll it and it's a five and a five ten times ten times One two three four Five six seven eight nine ten Ten times think I got stuck early you guys seen it already, huh? Sean and Joey Congratulations, both of you are now in on the last two spots of the break. So there you go Ten times congratulations coming up next is flawless random hit


Between 1986 and 1993, the archaeological survey of India was among the few agencies in the world to remain in Angkor in spite of the war that raged about them. Many of the sites in Angkor Wat have survived due to the painstaking and laborious efforts of the ASI. With the discovery and restoration of the Angkor Wat, tourism is the biggest foreign exchange earner for the country. And Cambodia is now poised to take giant strides of progress and prosperity. And a partner in its endeavor is the ASI and India. Once known as the Spice Islands, Indonesia is a country of nearly 17,000 islands spread along the equator. But the seas have also facilitated maritime trade between India and Indonesia. The Ramayan performance set against the backdrop of the majestic Prambanan temples is a major attraction for all visitors. It is performed by Indonesian artists with traditional musical accompaniment. Laos or Lan Zang, the land of a million elephants, is a country of only 6 million people. A unique example of the harmonious blend of Buddhism and Hinduism is the elaborate wood panels in the warts. The Ramayana is a popular dance drama that is regularly presented in Luang Prabang. The show begins and the slow graceful movements of the artists hold the audience in thrall. Here in Luang Prabang, the actors perform the Ramayana, seemingly perfectly at home even as the people are transported to another time and age to India. In 1993, for the first time, three Indian railways surplus meter gauge diesel locomotives were contracted on a wet lease basis on Malaysian railways through Irkan. Trained technicians and spare parts required for maintenance of the locomotives were supplied from India. As part of Malaysia's drive towards modernization, the government is determined to create a generation of information technology savvy professionals. The project that is supposed to spur and transform the economy to a knowledge-based one is the smart school flagship. And in contributing to the smart school flagship is NIIT, an Indian company. In the Malaysian headquarters of the NIIT, skilled professionals work to develop the creative software for primary schools. As with many of the countries in Southeast Asia, Philippines too is eager to create an IT-literate generation. India has been able to provide numerous centers where young people receive training in computer technology. The capital, Manila, has a large community of Indians. Outside of working hours, Indians and Filipinos come together to enjoy the many festivals that both countries share. Singapore and India have traditionally enjoyed close relations due to historical and cultural ties. In recent times, both countries established a joint study group to look into establishing a comprehensive economic agreement. Both countries also hope to consolidate and expand cooperation in areas such as science, biotechnology and information technology. It is a meeting place where India and Singapore have frequently come together for mutually beneficial collaborations. India and Thailand have long enjoyed good trade relations and bilateral trade has been growing steadily. The two countries have so much in common historically and culturally that it is hardly surprising that they also share the modern, dynamic and progressive platform of the 21st century. Indian investment in Thailand is in relatively high-tech and capital-intensive areas. Indo-Vietnamese ties go back many decades when Pandit Javaharlal Nehru and Ho Chi Minh cemented a friendship based on mutual trust and respect. Since then, both Vietnam and India have helped and shared knowledge with each other in various fields. Madam Quinn went to India under an Indian Council for Cultural Relations program. She learned Bharat Natya and other Indian dance forms. Today she teaches other young Vietnamese girls the intricacies of Bharat Natya, a shining example of how cultural differences are bridged by the universal language of music and dance.