I hope will be a very hotly contested panel on trade war, which is the subject in the news at the moment. I have a fantastic assembly of knowledge and experience here on the panel. We have, to my left, Wendy Cutler, from the Asia society, the vice president of the Asia society policy institute, a ffórma US Trade Negotiator. Rydyn ni'n meddwl, Mr Tak Ni Nami, y CEO yw Suntory Holdings, y mae'r ysgrifennu sy'n meddwl ychydig i'r ysgrifennu. Rydyn ni'n meddwl, Mr Timothy Stratford, mae'r ysgrifennu yw'r ysgrifennu a'r ysgrifennu a'r ysgrifennu US Trade Negotiator i'r Chynau. Rydyn ni'n meddwl i'r ysgrifennu. Rydyn ni'n meddwl i'r ysgrifennu yw'r ysgrifennu. So, let's jump straight into it with Tim. There appears to be a trade war brewing. How worried should we be? Well, I think we should be very concerned. I think it's serious. I think that we've come to the point now that both governments recognize that the real issues have to do with deep systemic differences between the economic systems of the two countries. If you want to get the clearest idea of the US concerns, You can read the report that was issued by the US Trade Representative's office back in March and it talks about technology flows and things like that. I think what is very significant is that at the end of the report after describing the injury that US DR thinks U.S.'s suffering, it list three remedies. One is to impose tariffs in order to bring China to the negotiating table. Another is to impose some investment restrictions. The third one is to bring a WTO case, But the WTO case is only about a very, very narrow technical issue, and it scarcely begins to address the underlying concerns that are put in the report. So what that means is, it's basically saying that the WTO system as it exists is not adequate to deal with the nature of the dispute between the two countries, and therefore the US is acting more unilaterally in imposing tariffs and doing these sorts of things. So what you'll find is that if you talk to the EU or you talk to Japan, those governments tend to agree with the US's assessment of what the problems are. But they are much more hesitant to go outside of the WTO system to try to address it. But where we are is you have two governments, US and China, that have very different positions. There's a big gap between the positions, and I think now we're going to be in for a rather long period of deadlock, where each side is sort of assessing how much are the tariffs hurting me, how much are they hurting the other side, how flexible is the other side going to be to negotiate. And I think it's going to take some time before we figure out what a solution to this problem really looks like. I'm going to move to TAC. You're from Japan, you've come from a country that has experienced similar things with America in the past, except possibly on a smaller scale. What would be your historical perspective on this? Yes, we have struggled this trade war for as long as two decades. So between the US and China just started, so 20 years. Going back to the 70s, 80s, we had the problems of the semi-conductors and then automobiles. The first one with the semi-conductors, there was no foundation like WTO to govern the rules of the world trade. So we were completely defeated and we accepted the 20% of the import from the US. By the way, we dumped almost all the semi-conductors to the Tokyo Bay and that ruined our industry of semi-conductors eventually. But at the time of the second challenge from the United States to automobiles, we went to the WTO because the WTO was founded. Eventually, we shifted our car production to the United States. That alleviated the tensions with the United States. So we got the learnings. One, we just shifted the production to the United States to create jobs in the US. Second, I think international rulemaking is a prerequisite to resolve the issues between countries. So at that time, WTO is weak now. But what about our set, for example? We tried to create a TPP with Wendy when she was in charge and that was a great job. Thank you for that, but now it's gone. It's gone, sorry. That's not your responsibility. We need a regional trade pact like Chinese Premier Lee mentioned in his speech. That is incredibly right. We have to create something like international rulemaking, like our set. I think at this time, Japan and China should promote our set to be materialized. So that's our learning, but a huge difference from then and now is the data flow and IP, which is a landscape of the current business and the current economy to drive the world. So what to do with the high standard? What to do with the data flow? What to do with IP? That's a huge difference from the experience of the 70s and 80s. You mentioned the idea of Japanese car companies in response to pressure deciding to build more cars in America. Do you think that's going to happen this time round with China? I don't think so because Japan had a certain level of technology at the time and Toyota and those Honda, they were so popular in states. So we had some contribution to consumers to be supported, to support our cars at that time. I'm not sure about the case with China. One thing is clear. Let me talk a little bit. The current president, the president is predictable in a sense. That is right because goods and technology, so it's an intricate path, but it's really predictable in a short term because he just repeats what happened in the 70s and 80s. Well, he does seem to think that we are living in the 70s and 80s, doesn't he? Wendy, I'll bring you in here. Now you have been working on trade issues since 1988, which suggests you started while you were still in nursery school. A lot of people have changed their minds about trade over that period. I have a quote here from Peter Navarro, who, as I'm sure many of you know, is Donald Trump's biggest adviser on trade. This is what he said in 1984. He said, as history has painfully taught us, once protectionist wars begin, the likely result is a deadly and well-nigh unstoppable downward spiral by the entire world economy. He seems to have changed his tone a bit since then. Wendy, what has driven this move, which seems global towards greater protectionism and the belief, as Donald Trump put it, that you can win trade wars? What's going on? Well, I think a number of things are going on. First, I think there's just a growing segment of the US population, but also in Europe and I believe will spread elsewhere. Folks who believe that they have not benefited from these trade agreements and from international trade and globalization more broadly, and so these parts of our society have become very vocal, and as a result, I think a lot of people in the United States, and we really saw that in our recent presidential election where both parties are really questioning trade and I would argue that TPP almost became the poster child of everything that was wrong with trade and as a result, the president on the third day in office withdrew the United States from that agreement, which I believe was a mistake. I also believe that just picking up on something that Tim said, there's a real serious view that the administration shares, but also other people share, and I share this as well, is that the WTO rules really haven't kept up to date with the types of trade practices and the types of countries that have integrated themselves into the trading system. If you think about the WTO, the last time really the rules were updated and what we call a big multilateral trading round was over 25 years ago. The internet was barely around then. A lot of the major trading countries really weren't... China wasn't even a part of the WTO then, and so as a result, we see that the WTO today really becoming increasingly on the sidelines of what's going on, and frankly, if it doesn't deal with the need to really update the rules and figure out a way to become relevant, it really may even slip into the background more, and that's dangerous because that means that countries, and this includes the United States now, decides that it will take the rules into its own hands and do what it needs to do to achieve its national objectives. This is the big difficulty, isn't it? The rules-based order was based on the idea that everyone follows WTO rules most of the time. There's a dispute mechanism for resolving that, and you deal with everything on a multilateral basis, and that way, the big countries don't get to push the little ones around and the little ones feel that it's in their interest to be in the system. But that system, that multilateral system, has not produced a big new trade agreement for practically a generation. So, as you say, something was broken. The question is, there's a short-term and a long-term question, we've got the short-term question of, is the short-term conflict between America and China going to be headed off with brinkmanship, or is it going to have ripples that will be felt all around the world? Are we going to be able to avoid disaster of the sort that Peter Navarro once predicted in the short-term? And then there's the question of, will we be able to use this as an opportunity to reform the system? Perhaps Tim would like to answer that. If you look at the rule system, you talked about part of the assumption being that people would follow the rules and go to WTO for dispute settlement, and I've already described how the US hasn't seen that that would be effective in case of the current dispute. Going beyond that, other assumptions underlying the WTO are, number one, there's an assumption that countries would believe that a market economy is more efficient than a planned economy. And there's an understanding that countries will sometimes deviate that from that, but they'll do it more as an anomaly rather than as a general characteristic of their economy. And that's being challenged now. And those of us who look at the Chinese system believe that China has decided that state intervention in a whole range of important technologies is the way they're trying to move ahead, and they may decide that that's in their best interest, but if they do, that's not what we assume when the rules were made, and it's not just an anomaly, it's a fundamental characteristic of a major economy. That's the first issue. The second issue, the leaders of China have decided that they should be self-sufficient in certain technologies. Semiconductors is the most recent example. We look at the ZTE case, and Chinese leaders are saying, we can't be vulnerable to other countries to supply this key technology to us. But if you decide that, then you're throwing the principle of comparative advantage out the window, and maybe that's a legitimate decision, but then you have to go back and look at the trade rules that were based on a different assumption. And to the extent that China is doing that for a number of sectors, then those sectors and every sector impacted by them becomes a place where maybe the WTO rules don't work as intended. And then the third big concern has to do with national security. Countries always need to be able to make decisions for their own national security. Now we have a couple of things. We have the fact that geopolitical tensions between China and the United States and some other countries are rising, so national security becomes a more important consideration. But at the same time, we have more technologies that are developed by the private sector instead of by the military industrial complex. They're developed in the private sector, but they have profound national security, national defense implications, big data, AI, sectors, and so on. And so if those technologies are pervasive across the entire economy, we use them in our smartphones, we use them when we buy things and so on, then how do you separate out the national security component from the civilian component of these technologies? So these are three areas where there are changes in what's going on now that really cause us maybe to shrink the space where comparative advantage and market economies are still applicable principles. Which is difficult because it is in a country's national security advantage to be richer, right? And if you think that your national security is best served by shutting yourself off from the outside world, you're going to end up with worse technology, higher prices, and a poorer country. Well, that's true, but then you have to figure out, okay, we want to achieve both objectives, how do we find the right balance? And the analogy that I use is that we go to a football game on one side of the field is the winner of the American Super Bowl, on the other side is the winner of the World Cup. They're both there to play football, but they have very different concepts of what this game is supposed to be like. And if the rules are broad enough so that both teams can play according to their own ideas of football, there are going to be a lot of problems that are going to rise. And I think that we have a comparable situation in terms of the way the U.S. and the Chinese are playing the economic development game. So, Tak, I'll bring you in here. How is this... I mean, how has it so far affected what's going on in the private sector? How has it affected your company? How has it affected other companies around you in Japan? And how worried are you about where it goes from here? As of the immediate threat, and already it's happening, some of people know that we have a huge investment to the United States, and we produce, for example, Bourbon, and that's exported to EU countries, and we've got already a sanction from Europe, and immediate issues are already going on to hurt our bottom line. And for example, we are exporting some products from the United States to China. So, the global supply chain is getting hard by the U.S. aggressive actions about the trade wars. And in Japan, I don't think it's immediate, but because the Section 232 didn't hurt our bottom line because we just passed on to business partners in the United States to export steel because it's specialized steel. So, we can pick up the pricing easily, but that hurts eventually consumers of the United States. And plus, if the U.S. will additionally impose the tariffs on automobiles, that would be a big threat, and if that happened, we would impose countermeasures to the United States. And that would ruin, that might ruin the long-standing relation, trust, which was built over 70 years, so that is a huge issue because automobile is the staple. It seems that the current administration in the White House has done something which no previous administration has done, which is that they've taken the economic issues, the trade issues, which have always been contentious, and they've put them in the same pot. They've conflated them with security issues, with things like the fact that the American military forces are stationed in Japan and defending it, and the U.S. security treatment, and what's going on with protecting from North Korea. Now, that's really raising the stakes. How is that seen in Japan? Well, considering national interest, definitely Japan is ready to make certain concessions, such as agriculture. As long as it's within the scale of the TPP agreement, we had, when we remember, we just decided to go for it. As long as it's within the scale, we are ready to discuss with the Light Heights, for example, but it's because of their national interest implication. Definitely we are under the strong support of the military from the United States. By far, they have the strong power, so the security issue is very important, but in case of automobile, I would say we have to do something because we have domestic constituencies who might not be able to understand the national interest, and security interests so well. For example, Okinawa, it's a huge issue. Okinawa people have the long history. Okinawa being an island with a very large military base on it. The United States, yes. So it's very hard to convince constituencies like farmers. Once they were convinced by TPP rules, which means we just opened the country for US, such as livestock. It's decided, but if furthermore, we call the food security interest of Japan itself. So what is the idea, the border, and the US is approaching the border of whether we should take countermeasures or retaliation or not? I think initially, under the Trump administration, that tariffs were threatened under the Section 232 case on steel and aluminum, I think the expectation was that that would be a useful negotiating leverage. The other country would come to the table and we'd be able to reach a negotiated solution and the US would be able to get a better deal by withdrawing that threat of sanctions. But what happened, I think, was unexpected, and that was a number of countries around the world. They just refused to negotiate and to make concessions with that threat hanging over them. Some countries chose to counter retaliate to the United States, like the European Union and Canada and Mexico. Japan chose not to. But I think what it demonstrated was that once these tariffs go into effect, they're really hard to take away, to remove. And those tariffs remain in effect and so does that counter retaliation. And that's what really worries me about this US-China trade war as it escalates and more and more tariffs are put into place because I think it's going to become more and more difficult to remove these tariffs. And I think that the expectation for the agreement, any negotiated agreement that is reached, let's say between US and China at some point and hopefully there will be a negotiated agreement, that the expectation will be, well you took us to the brink of a trade war, what did you get for it? And so it raises expectations of how comprehensive and meaningful that agreement needs to be. So I agree with what Tim started out. This is a really concerning situation in the international trading system and it's not just a war between the US and China. It's spilling over to other countries. It's a really interconnected world and there must be another Navarro quote saying how bad global supply chains are somewhere. But in reality we have a world with global supply chains and so the effect of all these tariffs they're not just limited to the two countries that are counter retaliating against each other. Two points, such as the deal between the United States and Korea and the deal with Mexico. Both deals show US won and they were defeated. So that's a huge threat to us. So US might impose automobile tariffs on our export. Despite the fact that we invested to the United States and the US investment from Japan created a ready surplus. Despite the fact that we have the huge surplus to the United States but the investment from Japan to US generates cash more than the deficits from Japan. So I appealed the US government about that but they don't listen to it so we might reduce the investment to the United States and instead we just like China we just want to keep our country to be invested by ourselves because it's not the praise of all. Second thing is, having said that I think we definitely don't want to escalate this trade war with the United States and the FFR. Fair, free, fair, reciprocal trade deal will start between US and Japan anyway. It would be my prediction that at some point President Trump is going to declare victory. He's going to say, I won, they lost because I'm a better negotiator than anybody in the world. The question is, what kind of a deal would it need to be, do you think, to get to that point? How difficult would it be? Between the US and China. That's the starting point. I know the US is declaring trade war on pretty much everybody and trying to fight a war on many fronts which has worked out badly for people in the past. I don't think Napoleon had much fun with that. My view is eventually, I don't know what the time frame is but there will be a negotiated solution between the US and China. I think it will need to have several different buckets with some short term confidence building measures maybe in the market access side of the relationship but then longer term outcomes on how to deal with industrial policies, with subsidies, with over capacity, with other types of financial assistance. I believe that the way you can deal with those issues it's going to require both sides to show flexibility meaning the United States can't insist that China just dismantles industrial policy. That's just not going to happen. But I don't think China can deny that its industrial policies have effects on its trading partners and harm the trading system and harm its trading partners. I think the negotiated solution will need to be centered around how to ensure that these industrial policies don't harm China's trading partners. That may mean having rules about the types of subsidies, the magnitude of subsidies that can be used, the need to provide nondiscriminatory access to these subsidies, measures to prevent over capacity in the world, which as we've seen with steel and solar panels has had a huge impact on those sectors. I just think that's where I see a negotiated solution if one's going to be reached. Both sides need to show flexibility and both sides will need to really have a serious discussion on how to shape those rules in a way that allows China to keep its industrial policies but to make sure that they don't distort the international trading system and don't cause harm on China's trading partners. If I could just add, if you think... Before you do that, can I prepare the audience for the fact that as soon as you've finished, we're going to invite questions from the audience. So if you can think about what you want to say and raise your hands quickly when I ask, you'll get in first. Sorry. If you think about the technical difficulty with what Wendy's described, you have to do this through a whole range of industries, so you have to figure out what the right compromise is. If you're a trade negotiator from your country, you have to consult with your industry, you have to consult with Congress, you have to get interagency approval for the positions you make, and then you have to do this across a wide range of industry sectors. So that simply takes a lot of time and a lot of bandwidth to do that. That's one of the things we have to keep in mind. Another thing we have to keep in mind is difficult is to write rules that would actually be effective. China, for example, has not regularly reported its subsidies to the WTO the way it's required to do. So even if you have a commitment that says you're only supposed to do certain types of subsidies and not be on a certain limit, frankly, China hasn't really been very good at reporting what it's actually done. There is a tremendous amount of administrative discretion in the way the Chinese economy operates, and so what happens is administrators can make decisions that go against the spirit of what a bilateral or a multilateral agreement would have said. You don't have hard evidence to show the basis of the decision, and you also, frankly, have companies that feel intimidated and don't dare complain because then the next time discretion is exercised, it will be very much to their disadvantage. And so these are some elements of the Chinese system that have made some of the WTO rules not really work. It's also very easy to disguise subsidies, right? I mean, if you have a big pot of money that explicitly says the government is giving you this, then it's obviously a subsidy. But if it's just that the government implicitly stands behind a state-owned bank which therefore can borrow lots of money and which then maybe channels it to slightly favoured companies, that's much harder to put your finger on. So if the government of China really believes that a more market-oriented approach is in its best interest, then these things won't happen. But if they're forced to the table and forced to sign things that they really don't believe are in their own best interest, then one could worry that it actually might not turn out as well as one would have. Well, that's what we learned with Japan. Right. Really quick one. My concern about the business itself, and it's been affected by the destroyed wars. Plus, because of the capital flights from emerging economies, that promoted, you know, to worsen the other economy in terms of it's a landscape to be. So, well, I urge the Chinese leaders to open the country more, just like Premier Li mentioned today, and the solution is open the country further more. That is an excellent idea. I'm going to turn down those gentlemen behind there and then Lady there. Hello, thank you for the presentation. I'm Gerald Tamura, Professor at Keio University in Japan. Thank you. I really enjoyed the talk. Just to make the question simple, trade imbalance is, of course, it happens because it's one-sided. And the healthy balance would be to have exports and imports. So, as Gerald mentioned, China is doing an industrial policy and there's a systemic difference. So, to solve this kind of problem, instead of just going through this tariff war, I think, like Tim has mentioned, the systemic difference, we have to really get into the systemic difference. I think we did that in Japan, as Ninami-san has just mentioned, that Japan went through this 23 years ago. We were called the industrial policy country, and we started to change to a competition-oriented country. Now, my question is, maybe to all of you or maybe Tim first, is will China be willing, as like Ninami-san has said, open the country, different football rules, more converged to a similar rule, because I believe that trade and competition should be harmonized, converged, and that will really make the world really more free and fair. That would be the most straightforward solution, but when I talk with Chinese officials, it seems that the preponderant view right now is that the sort of industrial policies found in Made in China 2025 are in China's own best interests. Now, there are certainly dissenting voices, but right now it seems that those dissenting voices are a little bit quiet, and I think the more hostility arises in the bilateral relationship, the more those voices will think that they need to remain quiet as well. So I think that's part of the challenge of creating the right sort of context so that you can have open discussions about what really is in China's best interests. So you think that actually by threatening and saying you've got to do these things, it makes it less likely they're going to happen? Well, what it means is that we're not yet at the negotiation phase where we can have that conversation. I think that there are some views of how negotiations should take place that say you should go through a period where everybody's angry at each other able to approach the negotiation in a different place than you were at the beginning, and I think we're seeing some of that philosophy. Okay, let's have the lady in the front row there and then one in the back if we could get a microphone over there as well. Okay, please. Thank you. Wonderful discussion. I'm Christina Lampion Road, CEO and founder of Cadence Innovation, a tech pioneer and really interested in your perspective in how we fight climate change. Climate change doesn't have a passport and make it very tactical and specific. My company has invented a technology with energy storage that is cheaper, safer and more compact than what we know today. It's ready for commercialization. We've decided from the United States to license globally. What's your advice when all countries are basically closing their borders where we have a very skilled team behind a technology that can be deployed? How would you consider what advice to operate? Who would you like to put that to? I would say the panel in general. Who wants to answer? Well, we have the same issue. However, we just work on a lot of the European leaders. As a matter of fact, they listen to us and Welfie is one of the institution for us to promote how to resolve the issues of the global warming such as in September Chairman and CEOs of the World Economic Forum gathered how to resolve those issues. First of all, it's not business at first, but definitely it should make sense, economic sense as long as it's sustainable. All business leaders get together to work on how to resolve issues together crossing the borders. That is happening at welfare events. I think we have to leverage and we have to go to the UN and so forth and we are working on it. So I definitely believe this kind of function, this kind of event helps to cross the borders. Maybe I could comment. Amcham China and Amcham Shanghai just did a survey about how the tariffs and the threat of additional tariffs is affecting business decisions. One of the things people are doing is reassessing their sourcing decisions, reassessing which markets to focus on and they're delaying some investment decisions if they can. But one of the things that they're doing if they have to make decisions right now are putting manufacturing in a third country that isn't subject to tariffs either on the Chinese side or on the US side because that way they're sort of in a neutral location and they can feed into both markets. So that's one strategy that people are thinking. I mean it depends on whether you're looking at licensing arrangements or setting up manufacturing facilities or something. And what they're not doing is deciding to build plants in America the way Japanese companies did with cars in the 80s. Well if you build in the United States you're not sure that you'll be able to export back to your home market in China if you're a Chinese company. So it's complicating the investment decisions of companies right now. I want to ask a question about what is the real intention strategy. Can you introduce yourself please? This is, you know, I'm coming from a US-based investment company in Mexico. I want to ask a question about what is the real intention behind for this trade war. People, there are so many different speculation in the market. Trade imbalance, intelligence, technology intelligence, national security, there are so many different reasons. I want to ask your perspective what is the real reason behind. I want to give two perspectives first. The first one is about if you pay attention to the news that US asks for like 100 different processes, you know, changes to trade, for the trade relationship with China. China said, you know, 20 of them are non-negotiable. That means 80% of them can be negotiated, right? And China sent their deputy prime minister to the US right now for the negotiation. So if trade imbalance is real, a issue, should you at least discuss and negotiate first and then come back while you are not satisfying my needs, you are not fulfilling the requirement. So you need to give me some more. Instead of, you know, before the deputy prime minister make it to the US and you make this, you know. Wendy, you want to take that? Yeah, so, you know, what's behind the trade war? One issue I think we just need to keep in mind is that our trade problems with China didn't start with the Trump administration. These issues were building up for a long period of time and I worked at USTR for many different USTRs as these problems were mounting. Under the Obama administration and under the Bush administrations we followed an approach of having these dialogues at very senior levels, the strategic economic dialogue, the JCCT, and under the Obama administration we aggressively took cases to the WTO. Well, when President Trump came into office, his view was that these approaches just didn't work and we needed to do something different. We needed to get China's attention and if you look at Ambassador Lighthizer's background when he was at USTR in the late 80s he negotiated a lot of these so-called voluntary restraint agreements with Japan, with Korea where he threatened tariffs and then as a result a negotiated solution was reached. So that's what we're seeing. We're seeing a pattern of, once again, the threatening tariffs with the hope then that a negotiated solution would be found, as I mentioned earlier, that didn't happen with steel and aluminum and now it seems that the President really is an appetite for continuing to escalate if the other side doesn't do what he wants to do, feeling that these tariffs will give the United States more leverage in a trade negotiation. Can I add one more point? I think what the US motivation is is a very important element and more and more of my Chinese friends are concluding that this is done because of an overall hostility of the United States towards China that the United States is jealous or fearful of China's rise and therefore that it's part of a containment strategy. Now I can tell you that when I was responsible for US trade policy for China from 2005 to 2010 never once was this idea ever a part of our discussion. It was all focused on what is the appropriate economic policy to promote growth in all of our countries. I'm quite convinced that today in our economic agencies in the US government, USTR, Treasury and so on, that there still is a focus on economic policy and not an overall drive to contain China. Now there may be some voices in the United States that are talking in more hostile terms but I don't believe that that's what's driving these economic discussions. I think it's very important for the Chinese side to understand that. I think now there's a great chance for China to attract other countries like Japan. For example, goods, how to reduce their tariff in terms of the border adjustment. I think now at the time for China to appeal to other countries, we will lower the tariff as your premium mentioned today. I think that should happen. Then we can talk to China and China will lead the free trade even though it's not the high standard, low standard, but I think China will take a lead for that. I think now the right time for China to do it. Great, let's have a question in the back there. Technology and IP were mentioned as well as Dataflow. Can you tell us who you are, please? My name is Pranéo Narang, I'm on the faculty at Harvard. I'm a scientist and here as a part of the young scientist community. I was wondering how agreements in future will handle emerging technologies in particular quantum technologies, quantum computing that have a very clear national security component but are also technologies that both China and the US are investing heavily in. I think the national quantum initiative was just passed by the House. I was just wondering how will agreements in future make sure that we are not behind again in terms of what we do with new technologies. Everyone on the panel, I guess. You put your finger on a really tough issue in trade and that is that trade negotiations take time and given how quickly technology is changing it's so hard for trade agreements to keep up with this technology. If you think the TPP took five years to negotiate and it will come into effect probably early next year this is about eight years later without the United States among the remaining 11 countries and then you think about the chapter on digital trade which was negotiated about seven years ago was really on the cutting edge of dealing with really important dynamic issues and now frankly that chapter is getting older and we'll see that in NAFTA because the NAFTA negotiations have updated the digital chapter from TPP and then when you start talking about these going beyond digital to the technologies of the fourth industrial revolution we're going to have a lot of challenges in the trading world dealing with as you mentioned how to deal with the whole issue of national security which has always been viewed as an issue that WTO just does not want to objudicate on second you have the issue of what is a good and what is a service because trade rules and trade agreements are basically written your rules on goods and then your rules and services well what do you do with 3D printing what do you do with additive manufacturing is that a good or is that a service and which rules would apply and then you have in addition to the issue I mentioned in the beginning just the fast paced dynamism of these technologies and the slow pace of trade negotiations so I think these all produced challenges in a paper I produced for this web forum what I suggested is that the WTO assigned like a group of really senior kind of trade experts to really look at these issues and offer their recommendations on how these issues can be dealt with or else the WTO is going to find itself really at a loss as these new technologies comprise more and more of the global trading of global trade between countries thank you if we're going to finish on time I think we've got time for two more questions but I can ask them to be put simultaneously well one after the other and then answers and I want them to be short please so if we could have one here and one there please so get two microphones one down there please a question about US politics so there's already enormous pressure being brought to bear in the president from states like Ohio where a million jobs depend on trade with Canada and the other 35 or something states for whom Canada is the number one trading partner against walking away from NAFTA and increasing tariffs given all of this pressure increasing pressure that's going to come from industry and consumers the possibility of a wave election in November if all of that comes together do you think that could have a moderating effect on the president's policies great question, final question there is there any specific from US point of view is there any specific area of industry US want to just really hang on or gain some ground or some certain industry you'll find to yield do you have any sense okay possibly the first question the midterms the wave who wants to take that I can take it quickly I think it's possible that these tariff wars and the people hurting from it up until now it's been largely US companies and their workers but soon with this $200 billion worth of tariffs you're going to see more and more consumers hurt so I think that will lead to many unhappy people in the United States and we'll have to see how they vote in the midterms and it may have a moderating influence on the administration however the president has been pretty clear when companies come and complain or consumers complain that in his view he thinks he's doing the right thing and he thinks that maybe short-term pain is worth it if we're going to get these issues right in the longer term with respect to NAFTA we're really coming up against the wire if the negotiations are going to be concluded by the end of the month we have a bilateral agreement in principle with Mexico negotiating intensively with Canada I believe that Canada will find a way to bring Canada into the fold by the end of the month Types I On the second question I think the US doesn't have clear industrial policy priorities the way China has with policies like made in China in 2025 but one place where you can get some clues and it's a little bit of an answer to the other question about national security the US has just enhanced its inbound investment review process you know it's called the SIFIAS process they've just enhanced it and they've said that that they will have special scrutiny of particularly sensitive or strategic industries and so as we see how the SIFIAS committee interprets that we'll get a sense of which technologies they think are particularly sensitive and therefore they want to watch who's buying the technology and taking it out of the country the other thing that the US has done if they think that steel is a big national security issue it suggests they're going to interpret it quite brightly look at the SIFIAS process is an interagency process that's focused on national security and it really has been focused on national security and I think the reputation of the committee for those who've been working closely with it is pretty strong and they've tried to have a narrow definition of national security Commerce Department in having these 232 actions and saying that importing cars from our treaty allies is a threat to US national security that's a completely different game and I think trade policy experts are groaning about that because you know when I came to China I tried to persuade China to have very narrow definitions of national security in terms of our trade relationship and I'd hate to come back now and try to make the same case when they've said well you think importing cars from your treaty ally the other thing I wanted to say is that the US is also just passed Export Control Enhancement Act and the Commerce Department is going to be coming out with draft regulations as soon as next week that's going to identify some particularly sensitive technologies and the US is going to be looking a lot more at licensing agreements and other ways that those technologies go out I'm going to give the last word to Tak As for SIFIAS Japan is pressured by the United States and we are studying how to deal with the SIFIAS things because we are allied nations but we got to think about the high technology like things that we are talking about the SIFIAS and going back to the technology national security what kind of national security you are talking about but the kind of forced ripple effect from the United States is going to the allied nations as well second thing is I think as for Trump who remembers so much about the 60s or 70s and of course with the United States I mean between the United States and Japan he might not drop out of the sticking to this trade war by the trif threat I mean tariff threat even after the midterm election and even after he would be elected so he is I think nurtured by the trade wars that's my perspective and I'm afraid that's all we have time for on this topic that everyone seems to find terribly fascinating so I hope you can join me in thanking our distinguished panelist Wendy Cutler Tak Ni Nami and Timothy Stratt but thank you very much indeed thank you


Hey girl. Ladies and gentlemen, fishing freaks of all ages. Welcome on back to the channel. I am so excited to present today's video to you because we are at the Casa de Jimmy. Jimmy Houston, the one and only America's favorite fishermen. I grew up watching Jimmy Houston when I was a kid. Me and my dad on Saturday mornings watching Jimmy. He's not just a TV figure. He's an incredible angler. So many accomplishments and his love for the outdoors is I would say contagious. This ranch is heaven. It is so awesome and it's got two lakes on it. We're gonna be doing some fishing while we're up here. We're gonna explore Jimmy's place. We're gonna meet the man himself. And if you guys haven't seen Jimmy Houston's videos, he is on YouTube and Facebook and other things too, not just TV. And I'll link him down below. Actually something that he's become famous for here recently in the recent years is his deer. They do live in the woods but they come by every day. Don't believe me? Say hi to the crew over here. Okay well they haven't really warmed up to me yet, but it is not just white-tailed deer. There are elk. Some beautiful bulls. They don't have their antlers right now. Obviously need to do the white tail. There's turkeys. I mean there's turkeys just strutting around. There's two lakes. There's giant croppies. It's just beautiful healthy lakes. Y'all it is the dream. So some of you that are really young that may not know who Jimmy Houston is, he is considered a legend of the industry. And I kind of like to compare Jimmy and Bill, you know Hague Parker, Roland Martin. Those anglers they were the original TV anglers and they got a ton of people into fishing. And so I really look up to them. And they were much more accomplished anglers than we are here at the Cougar Squad. But we still love fishing just the same as them and we're trying to bring people into the sport too. So it's like there's a connection there. You know what I'm saying? Let's go take a tour of Jimmy's place and let's meet the legend himself. This is a very special deer. It is a sweetheart. She's had babies out here. Yes you have. Yes you have.  So crazy y'all. I think I'd be petting a deer. We got this boy right here. This is a yearling buck. You can see his little nubs on top. What do you think about my pants here? I like your little buttons. I like your little buttons.  Judging from the other things I've seen out here. But how crazy is that y'all? They have little collars on. She goes everywhere with Jimmy. Jimmy can be anywhere in the woods. Collar. She comes on the boat sometimes. Like sleeps on the back deck of the house. Unbelievable. So this, ladies and gentlemen, is what a morning at Jimmy Houston's looks like from the front deck. Oh easy. Easy on the nose blow. But there's a big party going on in the back. I need some pets. I didn't really pet you this morning. Give it a sniff. Give it a sniff. To the water real quick because there's a break in the rain right now. But this is the lake. Look at this gorgeousness. Look how clear the water is y'all. It's absolutely gorgeous. And the way Jimmy stalks his leg, his philosophy.  So there's bluegill in here. There's shad. There's tilapia at times. So lots of bass can grow to a really healthy weight really fast. And this lake is about 125 acres. This is one of the lakes right here. And it is around 60 foot deep out in the middle. It is deep. There's the man himself, America's favorite fisherman. Oh, Jimmy Houston coming out. Take a look. I think I might give Joe Arms a call. Time to come by and set the trap over there. That is an otter to eat then. They clean them to the bone, don't they? That is sad. I've got relics you don't even need to crop you down to the bone that much. That is eating it down to the bone right there. That otter is living in the wrong area code though. I gotta tell you that. He will be trapped and relocated for you otter lovers. There's only one fisherman out there that can get him better than otter, and that's Jimmy Houston. I will tell you, that otter is pretty good. He's pretty deadly. So ladies and gentlemen, America's favorite fisherman Jimmy Houston here. You're gonna film a show today. We're gonna film with Winston today if we don't get rained out. We're gonna kind of try to go in between rain just barely sprinkling right now. We can film out here in this and not mess up all our camera equipment, but it should be good. I mean they're gonna be biting. This otter is so clear. It is. It's still a little too clear. We will fertilize this and we will drop it down to about probably 12 or 14 inches as far as you'll be able to see. Right now you can see four foot. It makes it real pretty when you catch fish, but it's better fishing when we put a little more color in it. Yeah, because they can see. Yeah. So it's pretty deep out in the middle. Yeah, we've got a lot of 30 foot water. At the end of the ox there's about 15. We've got 55 foot water down by the dam. So we got a lot of deep water, got a lot of shallow water. All this up in there Justin's a big flat. It's got a lot of grass. You can see all the grass here growing around the bank. And two or three different types of grass. Coontail and I drilling and goes on out and fish live in that grass constantly just like they do in all other lakes. It's got grass and and today a lot of them are going to be around the edges of the grass because of this cloud covering the terrain and they're going to be laying on top of the grass. Should be able to catch one spinner bait. I will throw a spinner bait. I promise you should be able to catch them on a sinking worm. Should be able to catch them on a crank bait. Should be able to catch them on something else.   Okay. And probably just about any kind of plastic jigs, you know, they're going to be biting. We got to get back after with the rain. Let's get down on it.  Jimmy here's his place. That would be a crime. He says I want to go in the boat who sometimes likes to get in the boat soaking wet. I love cameras. I know about cameras. I love cameras. That's my baby. That's my girl. Yeah, my girl. That is awesome. Well, it's time to go do what you do and make some fishing shows.  I'm now going to take you into the Tackle Cave at Jimmy Houston's. This is where a fisherman can come in here, think about where the next day lives, how to do it, what to throw, rigging, all of the things.  Just getting ready. Thinking about the big bass you're going to catch and look at the space that Jimmy's got to do that in.  And it is just a fisherman's paradise. I don't think I'll ever be cool enough to have a cardboard cutout of myself. But when you have a cardboard cutout of yourself in your giant truck and boat garage, I think you have made it. Map selection, do a little map shopping. What do we got hidden secrets? Lake Darnell? Poster. Poster, look at the hair. I actually thought about wearing a wig to come down here like a like a lookalike Jimmy wig, but I didn't want to think I was like super weird. So didn't do that. Would have been funny, possibly. You may have seen some of these rods in in Walmart. Those are some of his signature series, crappie rods, all these random Tackle trays full of the goodies. This looks like sort of the crappie section over here. The Road Runners. Anybody that's watched Jimmy Houston for any number of years knows that he's caught a million fish on Road Runners. Oh man, got your big a rig section right here. I see tons of jig heads, umbrella rigs, just tons of different kinds of jerk baits, soft plastic, anything. Y'all look at look at this shelf space. This is basically like having a entire tackle store right here in your home. Look at that well organized. Oh, what do we have here?  We got some classic Smithwick rogues. You know, when they start getting that little yellow tint on the package, they're classics. Bomber long a's just some classic big fish style lures.  Oh man, I've got I've actually got some of these back at my house not in the package though. Look at this beautiful some of these are discontinued. Then we got the line section over here. It just continues on and on y'all and look at all this space to park your vehicles. Oh, hey, how about a little deer handle or sheds? We're going to show you guys the boat garage. This is just boats and he's he's actually going to rig the rest of the the walls out tackle wise. We're working on it right now. But 1234 boat slots. And he actually has five boats in here. So he's got his aluminum boats, you know, doing that crappie snatching game, brand new trackers and mercs. And I feel honored that the silver bullet is actually in here right now you guys. Isn't that beautiful?  That is just man, having big dreams in here right now can't come out here and not have a spinner bait rigged up. So that's probably my first thing I'm gonna do is try to catch one on a spinner bait because I'm at Jimmy's and if you guys have never watched him use it before, the man made a chartreuse white spinner baits just a way of life. And if you remember Terminator spinner baits, I don't know how many of those things I bought just from watching Jimmy Houston fish in all those years. But anyways, dreamland right now and the garage flooring is something else. It is I don't know what kind of material this is what's going on. But this is like a slotted material. Things can drain through here. And it just makes a garage pop. It's gorgeous. Right now, I think what I'm going to do just for me personally, this is going to be really difficult for you guys is I want to launch the boat and go fish. The filming is going to be terrible. The audio is going to be terrible. I need to get out there for myself in the rain. It's going to be raining all day. There's nothing I can do. I'm only up here a couple days. I need to go out there. So I'm going to grab a couple of go pros. We're going to load up the silver bullet and we're going to go fishing in Jimmy Houston's Lake. Now leaving the Jimmy garage. I actually don't know where I'm going. But I think Jimmy said the ramp is down here somewhere. See the boat ramp. The entire cove over here. Okay, we're going to attempt to make this work. Key word attempt. Batteries, cameras, water never works out well. But I just have to get out here. I have to experience this. I'll tell you guys a back story. So I've actually been here once before. But I was working at the time. I was working filming some TV shows in the outdoor industry and we ended up here and I never got to hold a fishing pole. So I've been on this lake once before and I told the store to Jimmy too and he remembers surprisingly that I came but we came here. I filmed. I never got to touch a rod. It was awesome to be here and a lot of this stuff is new. This stuff I haven't seen. Especially the deer and stuff like that. But never got to experience the fishing for myself. So special day, special moments. I'm going to put some of this stuff in the drybox. So hopefully you can witness me catch a fish out here for the first time. But uh yeah, it's rainy. It's nasty. Boats, mucky, dirty. But I literally spent another hour last time I talked to you just rigging up stuff. So I've got I'm so ready to go and we're going to try to get some bass. So let's go get it. Barely got any gas in here but don't think we're going to need it. Just going to back it out and drop the trolling motor. Yep. Just going to drop the trolling motor. The craziest thing about this place y'all is it's just stacked with trees. Absolutely stacked. In honor of you Jimmy, I definitely need to be throwing a spinner bait. It's not chartreuse and white. I apologize. It does have some chartreuse and white blades on it. But uh yeah, you know what? It'd be bad luck not to throw that spinner bait. Let's go searching for a full-blown Oklahoma fatty. Come on man. Wow. This water is so clear. Ooh mossy. There's many different species of grass in here. Okay, that's what I came back with. Come on big in.  But the lake is very very healthy. Lots of little things living in that. Obviously guys, this is not an automatic thing here.  You gotta work for it. Which is just fine with me. I like to figure these little things out. There's a bass right now. Water 57. Not quite the full-blown spawn going on here. This crappie ought to be really close. Oh. Got hammered. First bite. Nipped it. Got him. He's coming back for it. Got him right there. Oh my god that's a crappie. It's a giant. Oh my gosh. This could be my biggest crappie ever. Oh my goodness. Oh what a hammer. Oh what a hammer.  Oh look at this black crappie y'all. Oh my gosh. Oh my goodness. Holy cow.   He came back for it a couple times. That is a logger headed nanny muggins. Look at that. Holy moly.  Not going to be my biggest ever but definitely a code magnum crappie y'all. Jimmy told me he said a lot of people catch their biggest crappie ever out here. He said there are three pounders. Scurry. Got that one on the old saucy with the flashy swim on it. So if that's what's in here. Oh my goodness we're looking at a time crappie fishing y'all. Healthy one. Gone. Yeah first bath of Jimmy Houston baby. Beautiful. Beautiful hook just comes right out because we're using varbulous. Beautiful fish. Love to see it y'all. Healthy healthy healthy chunks. So I smashed my barbs down on all my bait so all these fish will have nice nice healthy mouths to go about their business. That's how Jimmy does it out here. And uh you know I haven't had a problem with it so far. That's two bites two fish in the boat. So the average size out here isn't going to be humongous. You know we're not talking about five to eight eight pounders but probably average size is going to be around three pounds which is pretty phenomenal. And just healthy so much to eat in here. Very guys I just had to get on the lake. I've already caught one of my biggest crappie. That biggest black crappie ever. Just caught a nice healthy bass. Learning the lake a little bit. And uh honestly I know it's not great for video but I could fish out here all day. So normally a lake that's this steep you're not going to have grass that thick up there like that but there's just nice thick wall of algae and then other grasses there. Oh my gosh that one tattooed it. Let him have it too. I don't know what happened there. Gonna need a new swimmer. Could have been another magnum crappie. Just trying to eat it good. Look at the healthiness. Come here sugar.  Holy moly man. Look at the healthiness on that one y'all. Holy cow. That is awesome. Absolutely awesome. Look at the fatness. That fish is a little red in the belly. Getting ready to drop some eggs. That is something else right there. Another model of fisheries management excellence y'all. Look at that. Whoo baby let you go. See you sugar booger. Whoo that was fun. Right on that tree there. That fish eat it on this graph. I actually saw that fish over there on my live scope and I saw it swimming as I made a cast over there. Little one but this fat man. Oh my gosh one just right there following him. Got him.  Is that what we're dealing with? Holy cow. Got him. Oh my gosh this bass is like oh my goodness what is going on. Took my pinchers eight I think bit my bait about 14 times. Oh I think that's a croppy. No that's a little bass. Fun fight buddy. There you go. Nice thing about that barbless hook you can shake those little ones off the boat if you want to. So just picked up something different. Hopefully you guys can see and hear this. Not really sure. One with the grass hero and put that junior krakencrawl in there and this is a swim jig. I've got it on 40 pound braid on the 7-2 reaction rod so this is this is a setup that I've just dedicated to grass fishing for this grass hero. I like fishing the thin diameter braid. It really cuts through the grass but I picked it up because this moss is so bad and I can kind of feel when this one gets a little dragged up and twitch it and then it'll get out of that moss stuff a lot easier than spinnerbait or that swimbait even will. Wow there's one right under my trolling motor because he wants to hang out. He's going to see that jig. There's already a fish on it and I got him. Geez okay saw that one on live scope. He wanted it. Oh my gosh big one. Oh my gosh. Big one ate it two times. Oh there we go. That was sweet. That was sweet as sugar. Come here you bugger. Definitely this is what's happening y'all. I can tell you they're eating the pincers off. So that fish I felt it hit it. I stepped the hook. There was nothing there. I came back. I felt another hit and dropped it and then I just let it drop again and this water is so clear these fish will chase it out and he grabbed the swim jig without the pincers that last time and that's a beautiful fish. Three in high threes about a four. Really nice fun dives. So now fishing this swim jig and any other jig that I have that has those crawfish pincers on the back I'm gonna wait until that fish is grabbed at a second time because they'll grab it, they'll shake the pincers off, they'll let go and then they want the body. They want the body of that thing but if this water were not clear they wouldn't be able to to catch that body of the crawfish that I'm swimming because the water would be dirty and I jerk it away from them they'd lose it but it was so clear they can come back on it but I'm gonna try to do a better job of letting them take it that second time. Just love fishing jigs like this. There's one. Let them have it. But fun. Now we got it on the swim but I didn't set the hook right away. Just let them eat it. It's nice having this this rod when I'm swimming it too and having the reaction rod. This is like a crankbait rod but I've got that braid on it so I can get a good hook set. Just keep some pegged. See ya. Fun, fun, fun.  Wow. Let's see one on a bed y'all. Oh my gosh that fish. Oh my gosh that fish is defensive. Holy moly. That was a decent one. I watched him. He just, I thought he had the whole thing. Hold on to it for a sec. Really grabbing these pincers. Oh he's got it. He's going under the boat. She's a little screamer but he dropped it too. Pretty sure he came off that log there. That one had some sores. There we go. Came back and got it. This is a cool bite. We got it. They're barely getting it. Yeah same exact thing ladies and gentlemen. Look at that. Takes the pincers, rips them off, comes back and gets the body. Four pounder. Got to love it baby. All right beautiful. Whoa you're angry.   Okay that's Jimmy. I'm the sniffer.  Getting a tiny break from the rain right now. I'm embracing it. What a beautiful fishery. I cannot wait to come out here with Jimmy tomorrow and really learn from the master himself but this is just, it's just insane. Just insane. I've already gotten my fill for today. You know catching a few four pounders. A giant crappie and just getting to actually see some fish swimming around. So awesome. I'm going to do something real quick. A little change. I'm going to pick up a dart since it is calm here for just a second. This looks very much darty back in here. That swim jig, they're really thinking it's a crawfish. Just the way they're acting on it. Breaking off those pincers. So I'm going to try this. A little bluegill limiter.  Just man I can really get down there kind of quick and stay right above this little grass line. That's what's tricky about fishing right here is I mean it is deep. It's 30 foot right here where I'm sitting. So this the fish seem to be right on the edge of these little grass lines and if you can swim that thing kind of lower your rod tip, lift it up as you're making contact with the grass. This makes it pretty efficient. God I haven't had it. Golly they're just not getting it. I'll let them take it. There we go. Little guy. Now that one I just let them have it swimming. What I'm waiting to feel for is that second thumb.  They let go of the bait and then they'll pick it up again. You can always tell the fish are actually feeding on crawfish in the lake when they do that and Jimmy told me this morning that he stalks crawfish in here every year. So that's how they naturally forage for crawfish. They rip those pincers right off. Look at this fish on the life scout right here. That's a dandy of one and I don't think Jimmy's got carp in here. Oh my gosh one got it. One got it out there. I just saw him and it's another one's coming back. Another one's coming back. It's got it. Another one's coming back. Another one on the scope right now. But I want this up. Gosh dang it. Oh you should have seen that other one on the life scout. And the thing is out here in the middle of nowhere. Come here. All right y'all we got on the far bank there are Lucy and her friends. The deer are coming to see us. Let's see if we can get some more of these bass. Okay a little thunder.  Oh yeah that's a nice one. Big old chunky bass. Big old jumps. Sort of embarrassing to say. Yeah I threw it out there and I never even moved it when that fish got on there but that happens sometimes. Heavy. That one's upper four is getting on that five range right there. Beautiful. See you later. Beautiful. Look at that clear water. Y'all you got to smash the like button on that. Look at that. Amazing. Five pounder swimming off into the deeps. You're supposed to be a big one hanging in there between them trees. God even the little ones are just healthy. Healthy butts. Oh yeah. Juicy booty. Come here. Switched up a trailer on this one. To the rattle and chunk. And that one. That one did not break claws off thank goodness. Oh my gosh. The fish grabbed it right off a bed. I just I never saw the fish. I just saw the spot. Crazy. Little muck bass coming in there. Get him a bed. I've had so many hits on this jig today that my skirt is starting to wither away. I love to see that. Just listening to this.  That's nice. That's a good little cop though. Fun times. Yeah we got a couple. Got one right now. Maybe I exaggerated. Just a good old healthy Jimmy Houston grown bass right there. Come here sugar booger. What are we dealing with? If it's a crappie it's a magnum. I think it might be a good one. It feels like it has weight. Yeah oh yeah. It's a bass. It's on full grown. Upper three, four pounders that just doesn't want to get in the boat. And I appreciate the fight and these fish are chunk wads. Absolute chunk wads. Pretty amazing how many fish I've landed without the bar being on there quite honestly.  He said you'll be surprised how many fish you don't lose. That fish all is half day. That's a four pounder. That would normally be like a three and a half pounder. It's just so dense. Really nice. See ya. Well y'all we had to bring it in. The rain got really really bad. It was just coming down cats and dogs and had to shut the fishing operation down but had an incredible fishing experience for the first time out on Jimmy's place. My biggest one was probably just under five. Maybe touching five. Extremely healthy bass and that giant crappie. And it was just fun. That swim jig. The grass hero. That really seemed to be the deal for me. I mean I talked to some of the other guys and Jimmy and you know they were catching they caught a few on crankbaits and things like that but in a spinner bait of course. But I actually got a lot. I got a lot of bites. It sounded like just comparing notes. So that swim jig did really good. Which I haven't really picked up a swim jig much this year and that's why I really wanted to pick it up today and all that moss that's grown in the lake just made it really easy to fish. So that was probably the key lure for today but more importantly the day was more about just being here at Jimmy's place. Spending some time with him. He's an amazing guy and just one of the greats of our fishing industry. So I feel honored to be here and to be able to film with him tomorrow. I'm actually going to be on his show. We're going to fish together for my channel as well. So you guys want to stay tuned? Go ahead and hit that subscribe button right now. Just go ahead and do it. And if you don't smash that like button, tag up. Then you don't love fishing. If you don't smash that like button you just don't love fishing because coming to Jimmy's place America's favorite fisherman it's just an honor and a pleasure. So we got more videos to come up here at Jimmy's. God bless you. I will see you soon.


Hi everybody it's Sam at Mixed Up Craft. Thank you for watching my tutorial today. I'm going to show you how to make this really beautiful Christmas lantern. I just love how this has turned out. It is so nice and it's huge. It's six by six by nine I believe. So I've made this one. I'm going to make another one with you and the two of them are going to sit by my sliding patio doors and they yeah I put this one by there and it looked so nice and my husband really liked them too. So these hold these little battery operated lights and I'll turn the light off in a minute just so you can see. Ideally I want to get the flickering ones. These ones are just plain from IKEA but I am going to go and get the flickering ones but basically if I hold it up there you can see inside and then on the back here is this opening where you can put your candles. So let's pop all three in. Now it's not quite dark outside but even with this light you can see just how much that lights up and it looks so good and I think once I've got the flickering candles inside it's going to look so pretty and you can just see it starts to bring out that beautiful detail in the vellum that I've used there as well. So let me just pop my light back on. Okay so I just want to stress again that this is battery operated candles only. Do not put a naked flame inside these so if you're any you know minors watching this, any young children go and ask mum and dad for some battery operated candles and then you can obviously use this and they just look lovely during the day as well when the candles aren't lit. I think they're just going to be so so pretty. Okay so to make this one let's just turn them off. So I've got everything here. I've done lots of pieces already. Don't need that that's for something else. I've got lots going on at the moment. Okay so I have already created this beautiful like topper so this is my decoration here. So all of this foliage dye kind of effect here is from this stamping up this one here tropical. So I just used this one and it's been brilliant for doing Christmas kind of wreath detail so that's the one I've used there. You just there's a frame around it but it's just the inside piece that I've used. Okay so that piece I've got already and I've just put a lovely big ribbon bow on there. This ribbon was from the range 12 meters brilliant and then I've just with my hot glue stuck three of the bells. You can hear them there. Okay so for the base you need a piece of cardstock that is 10 and 1 eighth of an inch squared. Okay then you need some vellum so you're going to need three pieces actually. I'm just going to say four but your back one is not yeah just the four three pieces of vellum five and a half by five and a half and again I've got this really nice star detail. Now I shared this vellum months ago. I found a pack of about this much. It was so thick full of just beautiful different printed vellums but there was no maker's name on it so I was unable to share and I did ask at that point if anybody recognised it but to this day I think it's just something that's been maybe in someone's craft stash many many years and then they donated it to a charity shop and I was lucky enough to grab it so it's from there but any beautiful vellum and even plain vellum will be nice as well. Okay next you're going to need four pieces of six and a half by whatever your A4 length is. Now you can have 12 as well but I've got A4 which is 11 and three quarters 11 and five eighths okay so it's the default A4 size so like I said four pieces of six and a half by whatever length it is that you're using and I will talk you through that so even if you've got 12 you can still use it. Okay I think that's it oh and this piece here so there isn't much to it it's just it does use a bit more card so this is a piece of 12 by half an inch and this is going to be the handle on top and you'll also need another piece of 12 by half an inch because I've just remembered to just decorate like this here okay so in terms of cardstock you need a heavy weight this is 300 gsm craft card so if you want something to last I mean these will go in my big plastic storage tubs at the end of Christmas and I will bring them out again next year and they're solid so if you're using anything I'd say weaker than 250 weaker than 110 pound I don't think it's going to last you forever I just I don't know I just don't think you need that real rigid cardstock for this one okay so first of all with our base so you want to score they're all the four sides are the same but you want to score at one inch and two inches and then I've just got a piece of cardstock here that I use folded in half pop that in the top corner and then put your cardstock up to it and then you want to score at eight and one eighth of an inch and nine and one eighth of an inch because remember this was 10 and one eighth of an inch so basically now you'll have one inch one inch and then one inch and one inch rotate your cardstock and do one two and then again put your card in pop your cardstock back up and score at eight and one eighth of an inch and nine and one eighth of an inch okay then burnish all of those score lines okay and you'll have this here so now just pop that to one side because that's already okay so you'll have four pieces of this six and a half by whatever length that is that you're using along the six and a half inch side you want to score at six okay then rotate your cardstock so this half inch tab is facing the top and you want to score at two and four and a half okay now because some people might be using 12 inches some people might be using 11 and some people are using a four what's best to do now is just rotate the whole thing around pop it in here and score at one inch okay that way it's easy for me to just teach you all no matter what length you're using all it will mean is some of you are going to have a different width between this score line and this score line okay then you want to pop it back into the original orientation so along the six and a half inch side with the half inch tab on the right hand side and you are going to score at one and a half inches just down to the first score line then two inches down to the first score line then four inches down to the first score line and that's it i'm talking like i'm about to carry on and tell you lots more if i just bring it up there there you can see so that was the one and a half that was the two and that was the four yep all right so that is what you should have so you're going to have that one that one that one and the big one and six six oh we do and then you have that one that one and then this one inch one at the bottom you need to do that on all four pieces now the next part you one of the pieces you need to have as your kind of back your your kind of opening where you can pop your candles in now for that piece you need to choose whatever circle you want to go in there that's going to fit whatever candle it is that you're putting in there you may not have candles you might want to use some maybe fragrances or something inside like a you know pup puree or something like that but the circle i'm using the rough diameter is three and three quarters okay now this is six and a half inches wide and my big shot is only six but if you just fold your tab under it will not affect it okay you can then just pop that under pop your die on top pop it on the plate let me just bring it bring it in here just so you know what i'm saying so here's my plate here if you've got the big shot plus then you will have the a4 plate so it won't matter but you can see now look my fits perfectly on my plate by folding that in all right so that's all you need to do there then to do that on one piece then on the other pieces you need to do a square die cut so let me grab my ruler again so my square is four and five eighths of an inch okay you can see there on that side there and then we're going to die cut this again it's entirely up to you what size you want to do i wouldn't go any bigger than that because it means this is going to be thinner and that will make your whole kind of sides weaker i've got a nice three quarters of an inch there on that side and then obviously round to the back but across those two sides there's an inch and a half there so it's nice and strong so i wouldn't go any bigger than that but you can certainly go smaller if you need to and then what you're going to do is i would furnish the score line of that long one first i won't worry about the others because most of those are cut lines okay like so and then i've got my die here let's get rid of this scoreboard okay and then you just want to sit your die so it's nice and centered within this square here so above the so not you know ignore that one inch piece here it's that score line that you want to be within that one and that score line there and that's where you want your die to sit so i'm just going to use some washi tape here because i don't want this moving okay i'm happy with that so let me just bring in my big shot okay so i'm just going to sit that on there doesn't matter about the wrist hanging out because i'm just going to reverse my plates so pop that one in okay so just reverse that one back take that out okay so now i can just remove that leave that to one side and obviously it hasn't damaged my side tab there at all but now i've got that nice window okay so you need to do that on the other three pieces so you will now have i'm going to go through all the cutting and a little bit more scoring in a second but you should have three that will have these pieces so there's my three and then you'll have your one piece there with your back okay then you'll have your vellum so you're five and a half by five and a half and i'm going to use some of my red tape and you just want to go around the edges okay like so i like using the red tape because it's just very very strong and it sticks well to everything so wet glue will work but i just prefer using the red tape when i'm making especially when i'm making stuff that i like home decor pieces that i want to last obviously time and time again so okay just take your backing off and then i've got my one here flip it over and just pop that over making sure you kind of get an equal overhang on each of the sides and again just use your bone folder and can you see you really start to see the red tape coming through you want that to become really dark and then you know that that red tape stuck down if it still looks quite pale and cloudy then it's not stuck down properly okay flip that over and there we go so now you will have three of those next what we want to do is some cutting and then we will do some final scoring so you just want to burnish these score lines here and then the ones at the very top we're going to just do a little bit of cutting so you want to cut down so you'll have your half inch tab here i've got mine on the left hand side so you're going to cut all the way down that one and then all the way across and we're going to remove remove that piece i'm trying to take out the score line like so okay so that piece has been removed and you can still see my half inch tab then you've got two score lines you've got this one and then this one the outer one so this one here this is the next one we're going to cut down because this is actually going to be a little tab for us to be able to connect the very top of the lantern okay and then just cut into it like that and just burnish it you can see what i've done there so now we've got that if you just take a little wedge off again just so you're forming that tab so that's what you should have okay next we need to do a little bit of scoring remember you're going to do all of this on all of those three pieces that you've got so now i'm just going to grab my metal ruler keeping it upside down like this you're going to score so you've got this square if i just fold the tab in you can just see the square there from the bottom or it's the top the top left and right of this square you're going to score down to the top left and right of again ignore the tab fold the tab in fold the tab in there you're just going to score from the top left to the bottom left i guess top left it depends it's upside down but you know what i mean you're going from here to here so if i just grab my stylus like so you can just see that score line so again and then on this side pop your stylus down first and then the ruler okay so then you can just burnish those ones and just fold them like so all right and do that on the other three pieces so now um oh no you need to cut down that bit it's okay so this bit here actually sorry you want to oh yeah because you're sticking that bit silly me you're gonna remove that piece as well there we go so that's how it should now look so you're just cutting down keeping that tab there and i'm actually just going to take a little wedge off of that one and off of the bottom there all right so that is what you should have so now i've got my three pieces one two three okay and then that back piece there leave those now to one side and let's go back to our base which we've got here and we've burnished all of our score lines so now all we're doing is making a reinforced tray really so again if you you're familiar with the reinforcements then you'll know what to do so start from any side facing you it doesn't matter which one and basically you just want to cut down pass that first score line down to the second one here and then again cut all the way down like so so you've got these two rotate it and remove those two and then remove that one so now you're just left with this and then just tidy up all those sides so i've just taken a wedge off of there then i'm going to take a little wedge off of there and a wedge off of that one okay so that's what you should have and then you want to do the same again so you've got the four squares you're just cutting down the score lines through both of them like so turn it on its side remove the outer two and then remove that one and then again just tidy up all of the sides like so then rotate the whole thing so that's now facing away from you and repeat exactly the same again okay so that is what you should have for your base then we just need to stick it together so i've just got some of my wet glue here and with it facing so that's the inside you want to trip it over so you've got the outside and you're going to pop glue on these tabs here so and then you're going to bring it down and bring up a side and just stick that down okay then go around to the next one again pop glue on the outside bring the tab down and bring up outside that and just repeat that on all of your corners just a quick one as well when you do your corners because we've got what we've made going inside this so all of this goes inside this kind of tray if you come in too much so when i fold that in if i bring that down too much and see then that's kind of overhanging like so you won't get that in there so you have to make sure that this is completely lined up and it's a perfect right angle if you've gone in a bit or even too loose so you haven't stuck this bit right up to the edge there that piece that we're going to stick in at the end won't kind of sit perfectly and it's the same with when you kind of make drawers and stuff like that you know i read sometimes people saying oh theirs didn't quite fit or theirs was too loose it's more than likely because you've done this and not realized so yeah just this is i always say kind of spend time with this so you can see again i'm going in and getting that perfectly lined up there okay so that's that bit done now because it's reinforced we've got all these pieces hanging so what you want to do don't want that bit it's just inside it's just pop some glue i never put a lot just enough for it to kind of tack in place see there fold that one over pop it on its side and then just kind of re-burnish the score line and spread out that glue like so and see how nice and straight that is and you've got those really good right angles so again just do that on all of your sides okay so now i've got that really nice tray which is not much at the minute but once everything else has been put into it it will strengthen it as well so pop that to one side and now we go back to these pieces and you want to put all of your sides together so you're going to have two like that and oh well it doesn't actually it makes no difference whatsoever ignore me right let's get these stuck down so you can use double sided tape if you want but i've got my wet glue here so i'm just going to continue using this so just cover your tab like so and then i'm going to grab this one here and you just want to line up your one inch score line at the bottom and then the rest should all marry up nicely and just fold it onto you know a corner like you know a right angle just so you can see because that's how it's obviously going to look if i just flip it over and just use my bone folder there squeezing out any glue just make sure you get a really nice seal okay so that's the first one done then go along to the next one i'm going to get another one and then again line up my half inch and then the rest will all meet up nicely flip it over and just do that until you stuck them all down okay so that's them all together then if you fold this one over and that one can you see they will perfectly sit over the top it's the same as doing a gift bag gift box it's just we've you know it's a different shape so again i'm just going to put my glue on that tab and stick that down okay so now you will have what is starting to resemble a lantern but now we need to do the tops so every one of these kind of triangles here is going to go in side inwards okay and it's going to stick together that will go on its side it's going to stick it does work like so okay in fact yeah fold it flat like that it's much easier fold them in and then they're going to stick together so if you just open up one and again add some glue like so fold it in fold the whole thing flat again this is when you know that you've done your score lines and everything correctly because it will lie completely flush can you see nothing's kind of coming out the side there you can't see any overhang or anything so just and i'm just using my bone folder there and again this is where i love using craft card because it's so forgiving it really is great so now when you fold that up you see there you start to get a really nice corner to your lantern so then i'm going to go around to the next one keeping it flat is easiest just pop your glue on another triangle like so keep them both folded in because now it's starting to take shape you won't be able to fold it flat if you come in from inside can you see them there together you just pinch them together like so you just keep them folded upwards you get more control okay just hold them there together okay then i'm around to my next one so just try and keep them facing inwards it does get a bit fiddly it's not hard it's just you know you just have to take some time with it it's all about getting those lines or score all your score lines all meeting up so again put your hand inside and then you can kind of bring them down and they join nicely and that's what you want to get see i've got nice joins on all of the corners there and then once we put all this together in a minute i mean you can stick that as you go but i think just working stages will kind of work your way up and then with the last one just you know it might be hard for you to get your glue right the way in but if you just kind of put a bead of it at least on that end bit on the sorry on the join see i've just put it there that'll be enough to stick them together like so okay so that's now what you should have and then this bit here like the little chimney again keep one of your hands inside it makes it much much easier but if you just kind of pull them all out and make sure the tabs are all folded inwards so all my tabs you can see there they're all inside and again just stick them down so just pull it out add your glue and then just slide that one in and again it should all perfectly line up like so all right so just go around get them all stuck down okay so now you can see gorgeous lantern we've got coming together now it's entirely up to you whether you want to add glue onto this piece or glue onto this piece i'm going to add it on my tray but it doesn't really matter but this one inch score line is really kind of a guideline because that whole piece so if we just bring it up bring your tray in and if you kind of just pinch see like pinch the sides like that pop in one side pinch in those and pop it in and you should have a really nice snug fit don't worry if it's bowing slightly because once you glue there see that's going to stick and each of those is a perfect fit okay so i'm going to grab my glue and again you don't need loads but because i'm not going to be carrying it with the by the handle or anything it's but you obviously don't want it coming out but you can see there but just go around and pop your glue on all of the four sides because you need to do this all in one go okay so that's all my glue and like i said pinch one side if you've got a preference to it that you know you might have i don't know just made a mistake or something might not look the right way make sure because obviously this is the front that's the back you've got whatever bit it is facing the right way and just go along and just stick it all down okay so there it is and that now has made that really really strong solid solid structure so now just the final detail so the little bits of decorations so like i said i've already done this and this is going to stick on the front right there oh it looks so pretty this this is what does it this is as soon as i made this and put it on i was there going oh my god i love it i love so i'm going to run a bead of hot glue i don't want this coming off just sit that on there make sure it's nice and straight obviously you might want to put a little message on this you might want to you know to it to read merry christmas it's entirely up to you how you want to decorate but we have my mum actually has the one that i we've got my granddads and then my mum and dad have an antique one we've got two antique oil lanterns and one was my grandfather's that he used to use to walk to work when he was a young boy and it's so heavy for me to bring out to china what i keep saying i will one day but it looks really nice by my mum's fireplace and i don't have a fireplace so um yeah i wanted a lantern so i've made these and there we go how pretty does that look then i've got this piece here and then i've got another half by 12 and this is going to go and decorate the top so all you want to do first of all we're going to do this strips i'm just going to put some glue just no more than half an inch on all four sides so and then where's my little lid and then starting from the back because that's where i want the join to be just gonna stick it like so and then just wrap it around each of your corners hugging the top you want it to stay nice and flush with the top of the little kind of chimney there the funnel and then when you get back around to the join let it overlap and then just trim it like so and then i can pop some more glue on there and i'll pop it on there then again you don't need to worry about scoring it like so you might want to put cover these complete squares all black so the whole piece is a little black kind of chimney but i quite like just the top then this is that other 12 by half an inch that i mentioned and i've finished the ends here i've had these for ages they are stamping up they're heavy they're metal embellishments but they look like little bolts you've got little screws here and that's what i've used so i've put a screw on the end of each of these you can see they're just little stickers of brads metal brads would look just just as nice but i liked the thought of a little bit of hardware on this so i'm just going to then cover about half inch by half inch there is of glue and then just stick it in the middle of one of the sides just like that okay let's just do that again on the other side there you go there's those finished how lovely does that look so like i said you can't hold it with that but you know i'm not going to be doing it it's just purely there for you know decorative reasons but i absolutely adore this you've seen how it works so i'm not going to pop the candles back in that one but i'm so excited i've only got a month to wait and then i can put this all up i'm not allowed to put the tree up any earlier than the 1st of december so there you go i hope you've enjoyed this tutorial i have had so much fun making these and i really hope you do too and as always if you do please share your versions over on mixed up crafters facebook group because i would love to see different variations of this design i think it would look wicked and i absolutely love these so thank you for stopping by i hope you've enjoyed today please give it a thumbs up if you have and i'll be back again soon with another tutorial thanks for watching bye