Everybody forest here rippin 2223 upper deck trilogy hockey hobby ten box number four random teams Check out their results here. I'll scroll down to see the rest in a moment. That's 1 through 27 that you're seeing There's a link in chat for the results. You can always find them a late in sports cards comm.  Good luck everybody Let's see what we got the stuff has been a pretty fun the rip so far I think these are our last ten boxes. I'm not sure if we're gonna get more Thanks for filling all these breaks up It's been fun ripping like I said Hold the mcgavid couple a few nights ago There's some Z-gross nice rookie numbered rookies trill of three Y God Zuccarello presents rookie premieres to 999, but Shelley level one There you go. Yachts Jeremiah's guy He's a stan as they say Mm-hmm Riley Walsh rookie renditions for the Devils With to 499 Jonathan Taves Blackhawks on the red there. I just you just stand we stand Internet jump jargon There's a Tim Stutzler auto ho nice hit senators veteran stutzler here very nice Got present to 799 is Van Reems like for the Flyers That's a good way to start the break Isaac Ratcliffe future to 299 flyers future Rookie premieres to 299 Dylan Holloway on the plexi for the Oilers Plexi still aren't yet plexis. Yeah, so that for deck packs. You always pretty much have to open it like that Yeah, forceburg past abs with rookie renditions Jordan Spence to 999 690 799 you can do it for 696 799 because 696. I'm like 799 Jordan Spence and then to 299 we have present Kane Sebastian Aho Raising it canes Now we've got to 199 a mama level one for the Yachts Jersey card to 499 rookie premier Bobby Brink flyers A lot of like butts going crazy right now, dude. Yeah, they are is it set to like two minute two minute Maybe there's all happening at once. I think we have like I could turn one of the timers off The schedule doesn't need to be on for the main channel, I guess All right Keep it rolling y'all So why do you cut it there then also there's a sticker right there? You're just insane for a second what you think I'm not so yeah, you always have to Parisee past Guy still plays all right to 49 Slavkovsky level three great card Canadians The link where you grows That's a banger. We'll get that magged You're a Slavkovsky level three rookie premieres to 49 Montreal Who has the Canadians That's Joel M. There we go So guard rookie renditions for the Senators and new hook to 299 future abs is level three like the equivalent to like field level Yeah, I believe so Kind of like rarity. It's not quite as different because it's like the same design is a little high Oh rookie signature pucks that wild Matt Baldy rookie signature pucks Wow, I will For the wilds What a box Seriously, that's awesome wild Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Michael M with the boldy signature pucks What did in y'all do y'all and a McLaughlin to 799 for the Bruins Oh boy boy, he's there for 299 fix will ansky level one blue decades My magic hands today for sure frozen in time to 275 marner for the Leafs Lexi Lexi Dude Matt pulled a bunch of palos earlier. Yeah, he hit like like I was hitting a lot of Chet and Jabari yesterday And like Jalen Williams. He was hitting all the palos today Ronnie Addard You got the 799 Nathan Smith yachts or it's eight The 799 Yeah for real my brain hurts when I wake up nowadays That never ends to 99 Chase Pearson level one rookie premieres for the The wings and a 499 posted in level one jersey card pens Oh guys look come on here 799 Ricky renditions macelli for the oats macelli again. Yo, it's doing well Marco Rossi rookie renditions wild sup Higley and Yes, Donnie's heel here heel Donnie's heel I can it's down there in a shoe Ricky premieres a 999 parot for the Ducks level one And there's 499 Shane Wright level one rookie premier jersey Kraken followed by Ricky renditions Okotio to 399 devils Rookie premieres auto Braden Tracy level one for the Ducks the four or that was a 299 actually nice Good Ducks Braden Tracy by Riley Walsh Ricky renditions to 799 devils Tomasino future Ricky premieres to 99 level one Ronnie Addard wires Ricky premieres to 699 yeah 699 level one Lodine for the centers Subject to 99 make Michael caps and we're on to the next one So soccer sold out just baseball basketball and football tonight now Baseball baseball sapphires at 11 nice now when you're tweeting you don't have to put the what break it is because it's It's actually right. Yeah, there's just this is your links. It's okay. I've done it too If it's Facebook, it's different though I'll literally like cuz you dropped a link and then type it if that makes sense I would still be like oh 14 to go on This quadruple dooper super dooper awesome mixer fly Three three boxes The three three boxes of retail soccer Super duper duper mixer Super duper awesome No, no wrestling sign. Oh a lot of wrestling products come out. So you only really break it Just occasionally Dostal rookie premieres I see month level one to 999 jets the Jeets I'll see how far I should be your new team. So the heat Ricky premiered to 699 call grand level one leaves and Roman Yossi On the jersey no numbering on the copper parallel or orange parallel Yossi Preds game worn For now, I ran into you. Yeah Exactly Cole Caulfield future Future the Canadians rookie premieres to 999 Dylan Holloway level one Oilers Special price for you Steve though a hundred and ten dollars It's a 799 Phillip Hollander penguins And frozen in time Kale McCarty 275 for the abs Minds me the one where carbon wanted the the Nintendo we they've got frozen and Marco Rossi rookie renditions for the wild Yeah, see see I'm looking out for you Steve Move rare level one to 999 Ricky premieres Kings and Copa tar to 199 Kings as well I'm J. Copa tar. You learned how to sell these names Donnie. No, well, you should redemption yanni Gourd Number to 23 NHL trilogy signature pucks team logo Number to 23 Yanni Gord, I would assume I would have to assume that this is going to the Kraken But I'm always gonna double check if there's a redemption doesn't have a team on it Yanny Yanny Gord. Oh My Gord Yeah, all looks like Kraken here. Yeah Yeah, yeah Kraken just want to make sure he's all cracking in this one Kraken Yanni Gord, that's a nice one to 23 signature hooks team logo And now we've got level one got it Carl Strum stars to 699 Premiers Yanni Gord the lightning legend. There's a hockey meme. Yeah Donnie thinks it's mid, but I'm also not a big hockey guy, so maybe I'll appreciate it more. We'll see we'll see Got yeah, hopefully Shane should be fun. I may I may dabble in some bowman you from the morrow All Sam is doing the daytime Chichu Pass for the sharks Chichu Ricky premieres to 999 Eric Colgren level one Leafs Joe Valeno Gary just shows up starts talking smack about Alvin immediately. I love it So 99 Carl Strum level one with that nice emerald or green color match for the stars With a border low level one Ricky premier Jersey sharks. Yes, there's Alvin. What's up, man? Yeah, so that's what I assumed Steve That's what I assumed Z grass future Ricky premieres to 999 Dylan Gunther level one Yachts Yeah, there's more than just the big two though.  That's really cool triptychs How rare are these I'm gonna check pack on this Triptychs Calgren Maybe you're with Sam on something like a Saturday because I didn't pull one yeah one in 120 packs So I'm it's weird that I haven't pulled one yet until now Triptychs, okay pretty cool. There you go. I like a look at this card though. It's like in a frame. Yeah There you go Leafs Bummy thick insert a tick more Swamin future Bruins Ricky premieres Schneider level one to 999 Rangers Gibby present to 299 Ducks Rookie premier auto Jack McBain level one Yachts to 449 Bane you say he was born of the darkness Rookie renditions to 399 Vlasik Blackhawks You merely adopted the darkness No, true words have ever been said for I'm always having a great day Higley.  I'll go home now Presidents of various that's how I'd be like, okay, Jake. I'm sorry Can I sleep over Jake's house tonight to 999 Hollander level one for the pens The mom new Halo just came out. Come on 2003 Yeah, pretty much Rookie premieres the 499 sub Kofsky level one Jersey. There you go. Canadians. You got Sprite remix The 799 Ricky rendition Schneider for the Rangers. You remember Sprite remix. I don't Was that the LeBron thing or something? I think the LeBron was a cranberry. This was this was like when the bra was young I think Kobe did like Sprite remakes commercials present John Gibson for the Dukes God Ricky premieres the 999 Maddie Benier's level one. They go cracking. I Can't be the only person that remembers Sprite remix and misses Sprite remix I enjoyed Sprite remix as not great as it was what was it? I don't know really how to describe it Google it To 999 brain Tracy level one for the Ducks. We Google a flavor The type of Sprite remix. I'll tell you what it is. Yes, we're brought to 99 Devils Guess I am no one said anything in chat It was just it's only the only thing they get it was I was in a bubble. They just gave it to me I was in a simulation Is that a bird past or the Devils? I woke up one day. Yeah, it's a 799 Ken Johnson Ricky rendition's jackets It's like Pepsi blue is only there for like for like a year. I remember Nice Maddie Benier's the 49 level three on the auto cracking Big time rookies hitting here the the macaroni and cheese, please How have I not heard that one? Nick Schmaltz to 499 yachts macaroni and cheese. I don't prefer beer. I prefer Schmaltz liquor So it was a very So it tropical very clear in the Aruba jam Say what now? Variants Oh, I don't remember which one I had I guess tropical in I Guess will never know there's Pepsi blue. It was like a blueberry like Pepsi almost. It's very strange I liked it as a when I was a kid though. That was like early 2000s. I was probably like middle school Ricky premieres the 999 Raleigh Walsh Devils It's a 25 headman lightning with a blue color match to very good. Oh, I said very good. That was kind of weird, right? Very cool. How about that? Yeah? Saved it chase Pearson Patty Kane the 299 present for the for the Hawks Sir. Yeah, Serge as well. Remember Serge Van Beesbrock on the past Ricky premieres to 699 is Kent Johnson level three for the jackets. Nice Kent Rookie premier signatures tray fix will ansky level one for the for the jackets to 449 You guys were a wonder ball to 699 Ricky premieres Raleigh Walsh level one for the Devils Wonder ball you guys were wonder ball the Very different I Did not go to the gas station and buy a full terrier butter butter ball candy when I was when I was a kid Chris it's hey Robin you see it's a 799 No Wonder ball I can do them all day long right there. It's a lot of work I mean we pay we have a whole we have a whole team of people sorting shipping everything We're also a card shop. So this isn't the only thing that we do. Yeah, Shane, right? Ricky renditions Jersey We go Crack it and fix will ansky to 499 for the jackets There's a lot more that goes on than just what you see it.  I know of a whopper Yeah, that's that's that's a that's a burger. No That's a candy. I mean the malted Malted chocolate ball thing. Yeah, they're delicious. Yeah, they're all right Delicious is very they're amazing All right, they're edible. Ricky premieres Matt Baldy level one to 999 wild and there you sir I am literally a card shop. Hey, well, yes me Dude like LSE we are a card shop LSE is a card shop back in the day blockbuster buy-to-go and free bunch of crunch Lucas Reichel We're gonna free Walker's dots Patrick line a to 499 for the start of the jackets the blue jackets That's a lot of work Nathan Smith level one now to 449 Yachts auto rookie premieres To 799 rookie renditions of Kotiuk devils Rookie premieres at 299 Rowley Walsh level one Devils Hoppers in the fridge. It's not pretty good. I don't love them. My wife. I don't like some a lot. So like during Like Easter, they always have the egg ones. Yeah, we get though. We get those run Easter Calgary rookie renditions mark cast like the seven seven ninety nine for the senators and a Rossy the seven ninety nine wilds I like Rolos I'm just built chocolate and caramel right dark chocolate. What it's a chocolate Either way, they're good to 1.99 came York Flyers And Jersey Carl Lucas Raymond Wings Raymond game one Yeah game warren on the Raymond good stuff second-year Lucas Raymond Jersey. Oh, yeah, they are called like Robin eggs, right? That's what they're called. Yeah, when they come out around Easter I was gonna be like when's Easter, but it's like Junes Not it's not coming up. What's what's the percentage of people for and against peeps? I've never met somebody that likes peeps really I will say that so I don't know why they're all over the place every Easter Like I don't mind them. I'll say it's the top tier is not but like I don't think they're bad What do you mean by ever put offers on any ways open up? Not sure what you mean You know Ricky premieres in 999 I went power level one for the Sabres. There's a there's a power Maybe I understand the question See how do you like them?  There's every year You have to make sure you don't still like Shane Shane drew a line in the sand He said everyone is either against or there is something wrong with Signature pucks pretty good Chuck for the senators There we go sends good stuff greetings Manuel a present Generations with Tang the 799 pens He's about to be passed. I may end as old Future is now old man your key premieres level one 999 of Kotiuk devils Hey a right goal on the plexi rookie premieres to 299 Pauks God Chase Pearson now. We've got rookie premieres to 299. No, it kates level one flyers Next up is a land of Skog present to 799 for the abs And Ricky premieres Jersey to 499 Vlasik for the hey, this is Sean everything's trash You're what are you three? Yeah, that is Sean Oh Mark cast like I like when Jake was pretending to be Donnie. Yes. This is Donnie. I'm good at golf That's what he said like immediately. It's a 99 brain shiner level two for the Rangers Team was Solanae John Gibson to 299 present for the Ducks the Dukes as Donnie would say True another signature puck for the Kraken this time is Jared McCann Kraken again Kraken doing very well Yeah, that's pretty good baseball is good, too. I'd say hockey probably the most part is I don't know the other We don't open a ton of hockey some of it some of them still are not great 799 Ricky rendition to brain Tracy Ducks Well, what are you gonna do? I don't write in cursive anymore if you asked me to write something cursive that wasn't like my signature Even my even my name it would not look good right now My signature is okay because I skipped some parts but she went to 299 Kings level one Rose and it's time to 50 good row for the for the jackets Johnny good row Yeah, Matt was pulling heat today Knocked it off right now Jack we future so ridiculous for 2z to 799 present for the wings Patrick line a to 499 again for the jackets Ricky premier is posted in level one to 149 for the pens and last hit goes to the senator's level one mad so guard Jersey card to 499. I guess it is. Okay y'all sterling is down to two. That's a bit later sapphire soda 11 Full caser. All righty. That was a really good break Triptychs insert was called grinning for the Leafs This is all Plexian jerseys. All right, cool All right. All right. You got a right goal. So Plexian jerseys here good row Macar Marner Holloway Relics now we've got so guard of Lassick Raymond Shane Wright Slavkowski Thomas Bordelo Yossi Shane Wright Poston and Bobby Brink Autos now signature pucks McCann for the Kraken Brady Kitchuck Senators Nathan Smith Yotes Fixwell Lansky jackets McBain for the Yotes Kraken Redemption Signature Pucks team logo to 23 Yanni Gord Brayden Tracy for the Ducks Tim Stutzler for the Senators The Maddie Baneers Ricky premieres out at a 49 level three for the Kraken fantastic hit rookie signature pucks was Matt Baldi for the Wild and a Yorosh Slavkowski level three to 49 rookie premieres from Montreal Really really good break especially for some rookies there. Thanks again everybody onto some soccer


Well good afternoon. It's a pleasure to be here. I want to talk to you about the solar PV industry, my take on what's happening in that industry and where it's going. It's obviously a topic that we read a lot about in the papers these days. We in particular have heard about companies like Apple, Kaiser Permanente, also Stanford University, not a corporation, but still a large electricity consumer signing big utility-scale deals in recent weeks and months. People like Al Gore are on record now to say that they believe solar has actually reached cost parity with other traditional electricity sources. And so I guess that all of that sort of suggests that the subtitle that I chose here is solar becoming red hot. And I basically would like to tell you sort of the economic analysis that we have been doing at the business school. I've been doing this with two colleagues and I'm going to sort of weave in two research projects that we have been doing in that domain as part of this conversation. So one thing I think we can all agree on and that is simply growth in solar capacity installations as you see here over the last 15 years. It has been spectacular by any measure just in terms of the growth rates that have been sustained over the time period. As you may be able to see depending on how far in the back you are, the Europeans early on had the majority of those installations. They still account for the majority but that curve is now sort of leveling out. The Asia-Pacific part is growing rapidly. China in particular and on top of it the Americas largely the U.S. is finally getting into that market or into that industry. Here's a breakdown by country and perhaps most remarkable Germany has been sholdering a large part of the cumulative burden that's on the right up to till the end of 2014. Countries like China now are catching up and if you see in terms of the additions in 2014 alone China accounts for almost one third of its total cumulative installations. In other words China being of course an important producer of solar PV modules has in recent years also become a consumer and has installed these at a very fast rate. So if I look at sort of the U.S. and ask what has been behind the rapid growth in the U.S. market alone I think there are a variety of factors and part of what we're trying to do in these studies is to disentangle and quantify the different effects that have contributed to this very rapid growth here. There's first and foremost technological improvements and cost reductions at the level of the PV modules but also other parts of the hardware have been coming down in cost rapidly. And then the next part of this has been changes really in the way the industry and businesses have been conducting those deployments. The industry is probably becoming more vertically integrated say in the U.S. companies like Sunpower which traditionally used to be a manufacturer of solar panels now integrating downward into the developing side also. And companies like SolarCity which traditionally have been in the installation business integrating back upwards and now also becoming a module manufacturer. So that seems to be at least for some major U.S. players a trend towards more vertical integration. Companies like SolarCity also have been pioneers in the way they have financed these deployments, these investments, the way they have presented packages to investors be they individual homeowners or companies and perhaps the probably the most significant change there the securitization of lease claims that go hand in hand with these deployments has arguably lowered the cost of capital for these companies considerably and I'll in a moment sort of show you how important that has been in terms of the overall calculations. Finally and that's the part that I'm probably going to spend the most time on here in the next 30 or so minutes. Federal policy and also state level policy at the federal level the investment tax credit that was given to solar about five to six years ago in the amount of 30 percent that will not is not scheduled to stay there and that's an issue that we're going to pay particular attention to but also other forms of tax incentives in the form of accelerated depreciation. In addition at the state level many states have enacted renewable portfolio standards which have also given a boost to solar but also other forms of renewables and that is probably among all the lists that are all the items that I'm listing here the smallest item but should not be forgotten if we're trying to explain the rapid growth in this industry over the last five or six years. By the way feel free to interrupt anytime if I'd be happy to make this a dialogue all along. So in terms of questions the first one probably to ask in my mind is how competitive a solar PV today and to assess that we this is part of a study that we have done for the Department of Energy recently we have looked at the three main segments of this industry utility scale commercial and residential and the numbers vary quite a bit and we've also picked five sample states that you see listed there on the slide those cumulatively account for probably close to 70 percent of all solar deployments in the U.S. in the first place. The next question then after we've answered the first one is how important is the change in the tax code that is anticipated in early 2017 when the investment tax credit is currently scheduled to go from 30 to 10 percent how much of a difference would that make and then what I would like to sketch at the end is basically a proposal that we have worked out recently as part of this Department of Energy study that I mentioned which tries to sketch an alternative to this step down that is currently envisioned in the law and replaces it by a gradual phase down and I want to just show you some numbers to give you a sense of how that might work and how it would in our minds alter the path that the industry in the U.S. is likely to take if current law is not changed. Okay so first question what's a good metric here in all of this the one that we're using is a traditional one which has been discussed a lot and also criticized in certain quarters we think it's still a good workhorse the levelized cost of electricity you may have heard the term basically looks at is a soup to nuts concept where you're looking at the entire investment from the initial installation of the system you're operating it for the next 25 years and you try to take into consideration all the costs and you're backing out from it a revenue figure that's what an investor would need to obtain on average on average is the operative word here per kilowatt hour in order to break even on this investment in terms of components there are basically fixed operating cost on an annual basis those tend to be relatively small think of just maintenance of the facility the big ticket item is the unit cost of capacity where you're taking the initial systems price and levelizing it or anuitizing it over the lifespan of this investment and the factor that we're going to pay particular attention to if we want to look at the importance of tax policy in this area is what's called the tax factor and that takes basically everything into consideration related to income taxes investment tax credits and the like that's all sort of baked into that third factor so in terms of as I said we're trying to do this by applications in different regions of the US and also in terms of different applications that is the size of the solar facilities so for PV module cost it's pretty much the same across the different applications but once you get to the so-called balance of systems cost everything other than the modules themselves you will have some variation both depending on geography and and the on the application itself big factor for solar of course is simply the amount of sunshine so the insulation factor that makes a large difference and finally the whole question of what's the applicable cost of capital that goes into these lifecycle cost calculations that also varies in our mind by application and also a little bit by geography we're working sort of with numbers there in the range of 6.5 to 9 percent and I'll show you some numbers later on in terms of how sensitive things are to those specifications so here is our reading our current reading sort of of the tea leaves where we are in 2016 so we're going slightly forward looking to say the middle or the end of 2016 and the numbers you have see in the tables if you could focus sort of for a moment on the first column for each of the four applications utility commercial and residential and for utility we're distinguishing both silicon and thin film so say pick california for a moment we have a number of at the moment or 2016 of about 6.9 cents per kilowatt hour as this levelized or lifecycle cost now to some people that may sort of seem a little high we have already seen better numbers but that takes into consideration here our numbers here that we're basically doing a broad average so we're not taking sort of the perfect location within california we're also ignoring any state level incentives in the in these numbers so that in a state like california we tend we have a tendency to make the numbers even lower even better than what we included in our calculations perhaps most importantly if you now take this to alternatives say a natural gas type facility we're pretty close our numbers suggest even at the very low natural gas prices that we're seeing at the moment this is a close horse race perhaps the number for natural gas depending on how you calculate comes in somewhere in the range of 6.4 to 6.7 cents so solar from that perspective is really catching up very very rapidly what we have in the second column are comparison prices so not necessarily a natural gas power plant but question in california if you peg it to wholesale electricity prices that's in the second column there and if you go over to commercial and residential those comparisons those benchmarks change of course because we're looking at essentially what a business that is contemplating to put solar panels on its warehouse rooftops would have to pay if it worked with the local utility and again this these are broad averages this does in the present form not take into consideration that these electricity rates vary a great deal throughout the day there are ways to adjust an account for that but we'll have to leave that for another day so to speak and finally there are the numbers in red almost everywhere and this is basically now a levelized cost calculation in which we are anticipating that by 2017 unless congress changes its mind the investment tax credit were to go from 30 to 10 percent so those subscripts 30 represents 30 percent and 10 means 10 percent in the third column here what's striking in my mind is now sort of talk about solar catching on and being really close to being competitive in many of the applications is reversed just about across the board so all the red numbers the red numbers are not the ones necessarily in the third column but the ones that are indicating that we are above the comparison price in other words the investor that's looking trying to earn a normal return on their investment relative to the current comparison prices would find solar unattractive at that point in time and you see the only application that we have been able to identify is that commercial in california at 14 cents per kilowatt hour would still look like a goodbye but everything else would be as we put it here under water okay perhaps one word on sort of sensitivities of these calculations refer to this sort of as a spider graph here in the center of my little grid I have zero zero that those are if you want to the baseline calculations and now you ask well if you vary one or several of these factors in particular in the blue line the capacity factor largely driven by location and or efficiency of the cells what impact does that have on the levelized cost of electricity for a solar system and just to put that in perspective if you had a 50 cut in your capacity factor because you're moving into a less favorable location in the world talked about Germany earlier Germany's insulation factor at least if you go sufficiently far north in Germany is probably about one half of what it is here in california you're pretty much doubling your levelized cost of electricity so that's how sensitive solar and solar's competitiveness is to location on the yellow golden line or the red line here the impact of both the system price so that's basically what we're talking about when we look at reductions in module prices or balance of systems costs how sensitive that is in the red line cost of capital again all under percentage basis and you see all of them have very very rapid impact on these levelized cost calculations so things are quite sensitive with respect to these three factors if you want to sort of try to forecast where things are going in the future okay let me do for a moment sort of the two yes go ahead that depends on the application so we have four utilities we have put in a cut at weighted average cost of capital of seven percent and for residentials we have gone all the way up to eight and a half to nine percent so it depends on the application and it's also a little tailored to the state so I want to talk a little bit about the dynamics of these system price costs and the two main components I mentioned earlier being the modules and the balance of systems this chart here is probably known to many of you it's sometimes referred to as Moore's law of the solar PV industry it was I saw it here first in a seminar I guess was one of Sally's energy talks on the Monday afternoon in 2011 Dick Swanson the founder of Sunpower presented it and what you see on the axis here is cumulative total production measured in megawatts of solar PV modules and over on the other axis you have price both of these are on the logarithmic scale rather than the actual prices so if you had these in terms of actual numbers you would have a very steep convex curve what's remarkable about this is it has held up for as you see they are close to 30 years and at the seminar in 2011 the questions was well that's really great but this can't possibly go on like this this industry must run out of steam pretty soon this is a very impressive pace of cost reductions over 30 years but obviously sooner or later you know you're going to hit a wall there this also for for people in in business schools the nice thing about this curve is it corresponds almost too well to be true to what's known as an 80% learning curve that is with every doubling of cumulative production you cut your cost by 20% so it's only 80% of what it was before and again if somebody shows you that graph you would think you know this is this can't be true that it comes out that cleanly there's a little hump there in red commonly attributed to a shortage of polysilicon around those years but then the industry also got back pretty much to the historic trend line with remarkable accuracy so again the line the the conclusion at the time was in 2011 well this can't go on guess what not only did it go on but it got even faster and as many of you know so what I have in this graph here is simply I haven't done anything other than extrapolated in red this 80% learning curve beyond what we had in 2011 when Swanson gave the talk and also tracked the average sales supply prices in blue since then and of course the remarkable thing is starting in 2011 while this was a pretty close fit all along the bottom seems to be falling out here and that coincidental of course was a new wave of manufacturers most of them from China entering the industry and generally the industry also being perceived as hurting most of the players being highly unprofitable during those years okay so the interesting thing then in our minds is to try to disentangle well what's going on here is to what extent are the observed prices a consequence of excess capacity which may have been created for whatever reason we can speculate and to what extent is it does it actually reflect sustained cost reductions because there's also a reason to believe that the innovations have gone on during those years so trying to disentangle those two effects is one of the things we were trying to do in one of the studies and this is with one of my colleagues at the business school and at the Schleyer-Taylor Center here on Susahu what we have done is basically now gone and looked at the financial statements of about a dozen companies in the industry most of them from China relatively pure players in this market and have basically looked at annual reports to try to get at cost information and then from the cost information try to back out what prices should have been would have been in this industry had it been in equilibrium so it's basically sort of an industrial organization type study where you're backing prices out from the underlying cost structure of course as researchers we're a little limited in terms of what we can do because we have to rely largely on the financial statements and some industry association data so it would be nicer if we had sort of really inside cost data but we didn't have that at least not for the dozen or so companies looked at so what we get at the end of this day is basically the green line and the green line is what we term economically sustainable prices these are the prices that we should have seen if firms in the if this industry had been in an equilibrium and firms would have made a normal profit and once again they didn't but what's in my mind sort of noteworthy about it is there is really a pretty close hug here between the blue and the green line so average sales prices were roughly in line with what we infer the cost structure of these firms to be but things start to diverge really in 2011 and if you now think about sort of the historic trend line the actually observed prices and the inferred economically sustainable prices the distance between the green and the green and the blue line that becomes ultimately sort of our measure of the impact of excess capacity because if things had sort of state in balance and the cost structure would have sort of been where it is then we should have seen prices at the green line so that's sort of our measure of excess there you can use this type of analysis now also to go forward and sort of say okay so given this trend line and costs if we now extrapolate and basically sort of go back to ask the question where are we going to be you know two or three years down the road so our study ends in 2013 and pretty soon we'll be able to update it when the 2014 numbers are all in what we're finding actually what again surprised us a little bit here the so-called 80% learning curve is alive and well so any worries that have been expressed that you know this industry would hit a wall and would not be able to maintain this pace of innovations we don't see that in the numbers actually if anything at all it's slightly faster than the 80% we're arriving at a 78% learning curve so you would be reducing your cost by more than 20% with every doubling so so far at least as far as modules are concerned there is no reason to believe that things are going to slow down that of course is before we're talking about any of the breakthroughs that people are waiting for sort of with other technologies this is just all focused on crystalline PV okay last point then balance of systems here we have less in data but we've been sort of looking around basically at various industry association reports conduct the same interviews try to get a sense of where in this in those remaining part balance of systems cost used to be the not so interesting part of the overall systems prices because it was small in comparison to modules but of course that has changed now balance of systems accounts for more than half and if you're going into the residential market substantially more than one half mentioned vertical integration before but you know companies like solar city around here and a couple of others I think have shown basically a number of measures that really just in terms of bringing that balance of system costs down have been rather powerful and so in forecasting things we're willing to work with roughly a 5% in cost improvement on average each year for the time frame that we're going to that I'm going to project out here in a moment okay so where does all of this leave us cost reductions likely to continue at the pace that I had sort of indicated for modules and balance of systems costs now bring in the role of the federal government and tax policy in all of this unless there is a change in washington this investment tax credit would drop from 30 to 10 percent however it's also intended to stay there at 10 percent without any sunset provision without any termination so that in our minds sort of really raises the question is that a reasonable way to go where you the industry would experience this sharp step down and I showed you earlier the numbers in terms of what this would do to the levelized cost calculations and the competitiveness but then you would also continue with indefinite tax support really beyond that at the 10 percent level and 10 percent plus the accelerate the depreciation benefits still is a very substantial type of subsidy in this case so another way to slice this in my mind this is the proposal that been working doing with another colleague here at the business school is to actually say well rather than have this sharp one-time step down replace it by a gradual phase down and to the extent that some kind of quid pro quo is needed here to get a deal in congress also say well we're not going to do this forever we're only going to do this for 10 years and then they if you want to in return for to give the industry a little bit more early on we would be saying then even the 10 percent investment tax credit good would go away so here is a illustration of what we have in mind just conceptually this is when the ITC is supposed to drop from 30 to 10 percent and correspondingly the levelized cost would shoot up the numbers I showed you in the table earlier so we have sort of an in-between regime for the next four years 2017 through 2020 that would then bring with it a first bump but much smaller than the one we're talking about and since there is sort of some headroom lift in the numbers that I showed you early on that in our mind would not be a cliff but it would just be if you want to a small bump in the road and then you would do the same thing a second time in 2020 for all the way through December of 2024 at which point then you would revert back to absolutely no subsidies at that point in time so the question then is how are these numbers calculated that give rise to the red line one idea here in all of this is if you think about it on a in terms of dollars per watt the subsidy of course is very relatively high for residential systems which have the highest system price so one as part of this proposal that we have been evaluating and calculating doing the numbers on the suggestion would be to give investors a choice between a reduced percentage investment tax credit which we're putting initially at 20 rather than 10% or a lump sum amount and you see the initial lump sum amount was suggesting there is 40 cents per watt the idea being a targeted incentives so that at the end of the day the residential systems would opt for the lump sum 40 cents while commercial and utility scale would still stick with the percentage based ITC next question then is well where does the 40 cents come from we didn't quite pull it out of thin air but we did a calculation basically along the lines of if you compare solar to a fossil fuel alternative and you put a price on carbon and you now do a calculation of the avoided carbon emissions because you're doing solar as opposed to burning natural gas and you evaluate that over the lifetime of the investment 40 cents actually pops out as the number here that would basically can think of this as sort of a negative carbon tax as a subsidy that you're offering the solar investments the nice thing is so that's how we calculated the numbers if you now run this through and evaluated over those periods you are of course encountering those bumps at two points in time but I would say relative to the sharp step down scenario that I showed early on those bumps are relatively small and would keep solar in many of the applications either competitive or pretty close to it I like the concept of your your your lump sum payment is that in the same form as the grant was where it you wouldn't have to have the tax equity would basically be a grant you don't have to go give away half your margin to a tax equity provider yes so I think there are certain similarities whether you would still at the end of the day I think we have calculated it's in such a fashion that you still would need the tax appetite but that's something you know one could consider that it would basically be targeted to people who don't need that would just be a lump sum amount it would be a lot more valuable that way oh I believe that opportunity yeah yeah so bottom line here is this would be those numbers would be sufficient to keep things either at competitive levels or very close again in most of the states New Jersey is one application one exception to what I said but the other four states and most of the applications this would work and it would have in my mind obvious advantages in terms of the impact on the industry so let me conclude then if there is no change in the tax code we are predicting at least for the US industry what we call a cliff here and when I started out this whole talk by the question is solar PV becoming red hot yes it is red hot at the moment but probably partly in anticipation of the fact that the tax code is very is likely to change at least unless something happens if it were to happen I think there would be an undesirable boom and bust cycle for the next year and a half that in my mind should be avoided what our numbers basically speak to is what it would take and again you have to sort of take my word for it or look at our report to see that this alternative phase down scenario would go a long way towards smoothing this path into the future and the interesting thing of course is beyond 2024 if the trend lines continue we project that beyond another 10 years even without any incentives in the tax code solar would be able to stand on its own feet in most of these applications okay this is only for the US predictions are dangerous in particular when they concern the future I'll go out on a limb here and say I'll go and say within the next 10 to 15 years regardless of what happens in the US and what happens to the US tax code I think prospects look pretty bright for solar PV compared to the current technologies we're aware of there are indirect subsidies that you didn't mention actually from the california eyes a point of view solar is eligible intermittent resource that means that they have to buy it no matter it stabilizes system or not so they actually have somebody has to pay for spinning reserve to keep it intact on the residential side it is basically you can it's there is feeding tariff but to maintain stability of the system you either load the grid with a large variation or you have to buy a battery so you can think about it as a cost of the battery and this this subsidy though it exists there are several processes that in the sense of that are aimed at reducing it can you comment on anything about that will it change your analysis so the numbers say since you mentioned one form let's look at residential installations for a moment the numbers that we have presented and studied here definitely do assume that there is net metering and that if you have solar panels on your rooftop you can buy or sell an unlimited quantity at any point in time at the rate at which you are being charged by the by the utility your residential rate now that as we know is something that's currently being debated the utilities would like to get to different types of structures if that went away I mean if I sort of look at sensitivity if you want to think of this as a form of a subsidy and the sensitivity of the numbers if you took that away the residential numbers would shoot up dramatically that is if if you did not have the ability at peak times to sell back to the grid at exactly the same rate that you're being charged at other times I don't know is that I just picked one aspect very welcome


I have to say hello, I think that four times during these days. New universities can disrupt the status quo. It does make a lot of sense. New universities should capitalise on the fact that they are new. The role of industry partners in shaping curriculum development isn't often talked about, but can play a key role in developing the workforce of the future. My partnerships are even more important for young universities than for the rest of us, because they feel often alone in their mission and in their profile. One of the most interesting ideas that came up was exploring different innovative financial instruments, possibly philanthropic financial instruments. I'm thrilled to say that we have the most diverse list we've ever had. 39 different countries represented in the rankings in the top 150 list, and I think about 30 countries are here at this summit, so it's a wonderful gathering and a wonderful opportunity to celebrate the diversity of young universities.


In terms of what's going on on the ground, Israel continues to bomb Hamas constantly. It's been bombing, you know, there was a lull during the night, but then most of the day today it's been bombing Hamas in the Gaza. It doesn't seem to have had much effect and this is, you can only do so much from the air unless you're literally willing to carpet bomb the whole place and Israel will not do that. Hamas has been sending rockets into Israel in still large numbers. You'd expect Israel to have already destroyed Hamas's capability of doing this, but these missile launches are so small. They have so many of these missiles. Obviously Israel still has a huge intelligence gap in terms of where they're keeping all these missiles. But also remember they keep the missiles in heavily populated residential areas, so that Israel hesitates to bomb. So they'd rather not bomb a Gaza residential area, what they'd rather let these bastards launch missiles into Israeli residential areas. If there's ever a sign of altruism and self-sacrifice, it is this. I mean, we care more about the civilians in Gaza than we care about the civilians in Israel. Again, Israel should be ruthlessly bombing any target no matter where it is. So for example, Hamas was mocking Israel today. It literally sent out an announcement saying, we encourage the citizens of Ashkelon, the city closest to the Gaza Strip on the Israeli coast, to evacuate because at five o'clock we're going to launch an attack on Ashkelon mimicking the Israelis telling people in the Gaza Strip to evacuate because they're going to bomb. And indeed at five o'clock they launched this huge barrage of missiles into Ashkelon. I mean, that is mocking the Israelis. And the fact that Israel lets that happen, the fact that Hamas has still three days into this, has the capabilities of doing that, is truly driving me crazy. It's driving me nuts. I know the capabilities of Israeli intelligence when they are focused, and I believe me over the last three days they are focused. I know the capability of the Israeli armed forces when they are dedicated to pursuing a mission. I don't understand the delay and I don't understand the hesitancy. I know they are very concerned about the world and how the world views them and they're very concerned about, you know, bombing somewhere and some Palestinian children getting killed and then the moral equivalency all over again. But God, they need to stop that. And they need to make it clear the difference. I mean Netanyahu, wherever in Israel needs to get up, stand up and declare that yes, civilians, including innocent civilians, i.e. children, are going to die in Gaza. And that their blood is on the hands of Hamas. Every drop of blood is on the hands of Hamas. Israel did not start this. Israel did not initiate it. Not if you go back 75 years. Not if you go back 25 years. And not if you go back three days. And somebody needs to frigging say this on the Israeli side. This is the Arabs. This is the Palestinians. This is on Hamas. The blood is there. It is on them. And the blood will be shed. And we don't apologize for it and get used to it because the next few days are going to be frigging bloody. And they won't say it. They will not say it. But I say it for them.  So, you know, it is unbelievably frustrating to me that they have not, that maybe tomorrow the ground offensive will start. Who knows when the ground offensive will start? And I know it's going to be brutal. I know it's going to be hard. I know a lot of Israelis are going to die in this. But what is the option? What is the choice? And then add to that that there still has been nothing on the northern front. Hezbollah has given them three days to prepare, three days to build up, to call up their own reserves, to build up their arsenals, to move weapons in from Syria. Who knows what they're doing? Again, Israeli intelligence must be on top of this. The fact that Israel is not bombing Syria and Iranian bases in Syria. The fact that Israel is not bombing the routes between Syria and Lebanon, which are going to supply, continue to supply rockets to the Hezbollah. The fact that Israel is not, you know, maybe the Special Forces deployed in southern Lebanon. I certainly hope so. I expect so. But the fact that Israel has not started the systematic destruction of Hezbollah's infrastructure in the south. Again, maybe they need the time to build up the forces, to bring the tanks to the north, to bring the soldiers up to speed, to gather the intelligence. Maybe that is what they intend to do. But instead of waiting for Hezbollah to launch a second front in the north, Israel should launch a second front in the north. Again, they should announce now, give the southern Lebanese 24 hours to evacuate, and then rain hell, rain hell, on whoever is left in southern Lebanon.  It's hopeless. It's hopeless. And in that sense, it is unbelievable. You know, I've said this in the past I think, but people ask me, somebody asked me a long time ago, Iran was the most frustrating thing about what you do. And this is going to sound arrogant, and it is, but the most frustrating thing about what I do in life is that I know what needs to be done. I know what justice demands, which is, by the way, Ilan Juno's book, name of book, but I also know what will solve the problems, what will bring peace to the world, what will actually lead to human flourishing and prosperity. I know what needs to be done, and nobody's listening. Nobody's listening. And it's super frustrating to watch people do the exact opposite while the world burns. U.S. has brought its most powerful aircraft carrier into the eastern Mediterranean. This is the aircraft carrier Ford, which is the new generation, the only new generation aircraft carrier to the size of three football fields, two nuclear power plants, drive it. It is an unbelievable fortress with unbelievable firepower. My assumption is that that is brought into the eastern Mediterranean, not for America to take on Hezbollah or Hamas, but it has been brought into the eastern Mediterranean. The eastern Mediterranean means closer to the Israeli shore. Basically, there's a warning to the Russians not to intervene, not to enter, and there's a warning to Iran not to participate. Now, I know right now I guess I'm competing with President Biden, who's finally decided to make some comments to American people about what is going on in Israel. It sounds like he will express unequivocal American support to the Israelis and call the horror of what the Palestinians have done for what it is. It's playing in the background, but the reality is that it can't really, so he's going through the horrors of what happened. The fundamental question is going to be, is this going to change anything about long-term U.S. policy regarding the Middle East? Is this a real sea change? Are we going to go after Iran properly? Are we going to make sure that something like this can never happen again? Are we going to initiate the process, which should have started 9-11, should have started even before that, of dismantling Islamist terrorist organizations all over the Middle East, including the Islamist regime in Iran? He's not holding BB back behind the scenes. BB is holding BB back behind the scenes. God, you guys are so clueless about how this works and about what is going on and about BB. Remain delusional about BB Netanyahu and his pretend toughness. Nothing is held back BB except BB, and that is true for 15 years since he came to be Prime Minister. Let's see. So Biden will talk about all this. We'll see if he sneaks in something about pro-World Palestinian into the speech as well. We'll see about that. Which reminds me, European Union, which initially on Saturday or Sunday announced that they were stopping all financial support to the Palestinians. Yesterday renewed their financial support to the Palestinians. So again, blood on the hands of the European Union, blood on the hands of the Biden administration that's been supporting the Palestinians, blood on the hands of anybody who's provided the Palestinians with financial support as they reject peace, reject any kind of settlement, reject Israel as a political entity, as a viable political entity. It is blood on them, blood on them.


Naval Air Station Sigonella's emergency services came together to host their annual fire prevention night to educate the community and more importantly the children about fire prevention and other serious topics. Fire prevention chief John Rausch explains what fire prevention night is. This is our time, October is the time of the year where we reach out to the community and teach this public education on how to be fire safe at home, at work, and to remember why are we here, why is fire prevention night, fire prevention night, that's we remember the great Chicago fire. The event is not only educational for the community but it's beneficial for the different entities of the emergency services as well. From Naval Air Station Sigonella, I'm Petty Officer Ryan McLearnan.


We'll close the boundary layer by clicking on the X, and now let's add a thematic layer. So now we want to add some actual data to this map. In order to do this, we can use the thematic layers 1 through 4. Let's add one layer first. So we'll click on the number 1, which represents our first thematic layer. We can then click on Edit Layer. We can see that the selection for data and periods is a bit different when compared to the pivot table and data visualizer tool. Here we select the data and the periods together in one tab. Previously these were separated. In this first example, let's work with the data element. We will select data element from the value type. You can see the prompt changes from indicator group to data element group. We can work with the malaria data element group in this example. After we select the group, we can select our data element. We'll select RDT positives in this case. From the period type, we can select either a relative period or a predefined period. You can see these are now combined. Before you had a top and bottom area where you could select between relative and predefined periods. In the GIS application, you must define whether or not you're working with a relative or predefined period, and then subsequently select the period you want to work with. If I select relative period, you can see now that relative periods appear for me in the period selection. If I were to select a predefined period, such as yearly, then the periods available are associated with those predefined periods. Let's work with a relative period of this year. In a GIS map, you're only allowed to display data from one period at one time, so just keep that in mind when you're making these maps. After we've defined our data and our periods, we select our organization unit. So where do we want the data to come from? Typically, we work with organization unit levels. This is the default selection method. If you click on the gear icon, however, you can change the selection mode to be more specific to select specific organization units. Let's change this to display the data by facility. From our dropdown, we'll deselect region and select facility. Our last tab is the options tab. We can define the legend type, the classes, and the methods, the color scale, the low color size, and the high color size, add the labels, and define the aggregation type. Let's discuss this in a little bit of detail. First we'll start with the legend type. There are two types, automatic and predefined. We will come back to the predefined legend set in another example. Next we can define the classes and the methods. In order to explain this a bit more, we'll update our map and walk through this. The color scale allows us to choose which colors to apply to the legend of the map. Here are a number of different color scales that are available. For the low color and the high color size, this applies only to point based data. If I'm looking at facility based data, then we can change the low and high color size of these different points. We'll update the map and then see how we can change the low and high color size on the map itself. The aggregation type defines how I'm going to aggregate the data that I've chosen. In this case we have selected the data element Malaria RDT positives. By default it is going to sum this data element. We can change how this is aggregated by selecting the aggregation type here. For now we're just going to leave the aggregation type as the default. Let's click on update in order to see the output of the map.


Knocked on. Who is there? Batman. Batman who? Where's Rachel? So bad. 🎵 Da-ding-ding-da-ding-da-ding-da 🎵 🎵 Ding-ding-da-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D 🎵 🎵 Na-ding-da-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D 🎵 🎵 Na-da-da-da-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D 🎵 🎵 Da-ding-da-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D 🎵 My left toe bit. Hey, welcome back to our student reaction video. I'm Corbett, I'm Ricky Paulson. In the back, it's called Juicy Contest. It's so juicy. It's so juicy. I'm going to explain. They are wrapping filming on Batman in March. At least that's what Variety said. That's been going on for years. Well, he got COVID. No, I'm saying that film. Oh, I know. It has been going on for you. It's got picked up, delayed, and no, canned. I know, because for a while when I worked at a bakery, I knew the costume designer. He was a costume designer from the Revenant. She was working on the Batman at that time. This Robert Pattinson one. No, at that time, it was Ben Affleck. Oh, that's before he left. Before he left. God, and then they picked it up and now it's Robert Pattinson. Yeah. And then Robert Pattinson got COVID. Yeah, so they had to close up shop, but they're going to wrap in March. And James Bond was pushed again to October. We're not getting anything. We're getting not Christmas. No, we're just depressing, but it's our life right now. Whatever. Anyways, today we're reacting to a video. It's a little long, it's about 20 minutes, but it's, what is Sikhism? Oh, great. Sikhism? I don't know if it's Sikhism. I know that the religion is a sick. Why do you know that? Because they've told us. I've been told Sikh. No, you're remembering it wrong. I've already- I just recently watched a video. I just recently watched a video. No, it's sick. It could be Sikhism, but I know the religion is a sick. Like when you go to Pittsburgh, if you are talking to someone from Pittsburgh, they call that Pittsburgh. Well, my brothers looked like a week ago and I was confirmed that I was correct. Regardless. By who? By who, Punjabi? Yes. Yeah. Patreon Punjabis. The Patreon Punjabis. That's a great name for a cricket team. It is, the Patreon Punjabis. Yeah. Call them Peepee for short. So we've reacted to like, what is Hinduism? Remember that one? A while back. Hinduism, didn't we do Jainism? I don't think so. I thought we did, early, early on. One of the first ones we did. But this says, now you can learn how the Singh and Singh Kaur names came to be. So, because every Punjabi has either a Singh or a Kaur. Kaur, or I think some of the, kind of some of the Bengalis, right? Right. G's. Yeah. Chakaborty, Mukherjee. So, let's check this out. Let me make sure my sound is on the right speaker because sometimes technology likes to have a mind of its own and kill us. Yeah. Here we go. This video is made possible thanks to Audible. Thank you, Audible. This is Audible.com slash Kogido. Audible, sponsor us. Thanks to Kogido. I use you. 5500 to start your 30 day free trial. Do you like Audible? Sure. This is the Hari Mandir. The world's largest free kitchen. It serves a free vegetarian food to about 100,000 people every day. It's also the holiest site in Sikhism, the fifth largest and youngest of the world religions. I don't know that I trust this, but I'm not serious. And the equality of humankind, but also asks its followers to carry swords. So, it's a good idea. What do they believe and why does everyone confuse them from Muslims? Not everyone does. Let's find out.  Sikhism originated in the Punjab area of India and Pakistan. 500 years ago. The Punjab, the land of five rivers, is one of the most historically and culturally dense areas on earth. This was the home of one of the world's earliest civilizations, the Inness Valley civilization. Persians, Greeks, Central Asians, Muggles, the British, all invaded here. I meant Mughals, Mughal, Mughals invaded here. Hinduism, Buddhism, Islam, Jainism and a handful of other faiths have all left their mark on the region. The diverse culture of the Punjab has heavily influenced the Sikhs. Today, there are about 25 million Sikhs. They make up about 2% of India's population, but about 60% of the Punjabs. The Sikh diaspora is spread across the world with concentrations in the UK, Canada, the US, East Africa, Australia and Malaysia. Six, interestingly enough, make up about 1.5% of Canada's population, which is second only to India. Wow. The word Sikh means learner. Sikhs call their religion Sikhi, Gursikhi and Gurmat. You can't really understand the Sikhs without understanding their relationship with Gurus. The word Guru means a teacher or spiritual guide. The Guru teaches and the Sikh learns. The Sikhs follow the teachings of 10 succeeding Gurus that have shaped Sikhism. The first and most important Guru is Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism. Born in 1469 CE, near one is today Lahore, Pakistan. Nanak was seen as special even as a child. As a baby, he was said to have had the laugh of an adult man. Here comes the bird.  As a teenager, he preferred to listen to Hindu saints and speak to more Sikh preachers rather than his own parents. As an adult, Nanak was settled in Sultanpur where he worked for the government. The actions of his fellow government officials and the rich and powerful disgusted him as they exploited the government and people. And he hated the caste divisions they saw all around him. One day while bathing in a river near Sultanpur, Nanak had a miraculous experience. He was swept up into God's court where God spoke to him. Nanak reappeared three days later, declaring there is no Hindu and there is no Muslim. There was only God. This was a message inspired by his experience with God, one that spoke in favor of the equality of humankind and against caste, ethnic and religious divisions. Nanak would later say, except all humans as your equals and let them be your only sect. It's a great adage to live by. Nine human gurus followed Nanak, all preaching the same message of one God and the equality of humankind. Two fundamental events that shaped Sikh history was the martyrdom of two gurus. The first was the fifth guru, Guru Arjan, who was roasted alive by the Mughal Emperor Jahangir. The next martyr would be the ninth guru, Guru Tegh Bahadur. He was beheaded by the Mughals while attempting to defend the religious rights of Hindus. His son, Guru Gobind Rai, the 10th and final human guru, started a new Sikh community called the Kalsa and ended the line of human gurus by making the guru Grand Sahil, the Sikh holy book, The Last Living Guru. We'll take a closer look at both of these in a bit. So, with that brief history out of the way, let's take a look at the core beliefs of Sikhism. One, one God. The Sikh holy book, The Guru Grand Sahil, opening sentence is just two words, ik, onkar. There is only one God. Nanak made sure it was clear that the focus was on one. Ik doesn't just mean one, it is literally the numeral one. One God is by far the most important belief in Sikhism. This may not be the kind of God you're used to though. Sixth believe in a formless, genderless, universal God beyond description. This God is all of reality and is within everything. They believe no idol or image could ever represent this being. So, they use the sacred symbol of ik, onkar to represent it instead. Many Sikhs refer to this one God by the name Way Guru, Wondrous Lord. Guru Nanak and his followers constantly emphasised that this one could be understood in many different ways. No religion had a monopoly on the truth. Nanak's one could be known as Vishnu, Allah, Atau, Yahweh, the algorithm or any other name or belief. There was no need to fight over whose God was the true God as they were all the same one. Recognise all mankind whether Muslim or Hindu as one. The same God is the creator and nourisher of all. Recognise no distinctions among them. The temple and the mosque are the same. So are Hindu worship and Muslim prayer. Human beings are all one, Guru Gobind Singh. The lack of a gender for this one God means that there is no difference between men and women in Sikhism. Sikhism was among the first major world religions to make the radical suggestion that maybe, just maybe, women are people too. Religion and Sikhism have fought battles, led religious services and even acted as some of the longest brain leaders of the entire community. Sikhism's biggest thing from doing things to give it to some kind of hell.  You see, Sikhs believe in reincarnation of karma similar to Buddhists, Hindus and Jains. But Sikhs believe that karma is modified by God as in karma might decide what life you're born into, but God makes sure that anyone can become a good person in their lifetime if they try. The goal of Sikh life is to break free from the cycle of rebirth by merging your soul back into God's soul. One of those is by realising that you are already a part of God. You just need to let go of your ego. When your soul re-merges back into God's, this is called mukti, which is similar to Hinduism's moksha and means liberation. When you re-merge, your soul is released from the cycle of rebirth and death and becomes infinite, timeless and blissful. This is the closest thing Sikhs have to heaven. Two, maya. Sikhs believe that God is and created reality, but we forget this because humans are distracted by illusion or maya, which is anything that takes your mind off God. Maya is trapped in the cycle of rebirth and death. Guru Nanak thought that maya built a wall between people and God. The wall of maya is built with the five thieves, love, anger, greed, attachment, and pride. It is the duty of all Sikhs to avoid these thieves. The five thieves are caused by how-mine. Literally, I, myself. How-mine makes people say I am this, I am that, and it separates you from others, which blocks you from realising your oneness with God. This ego causes people to live only for themselves, the few negativity and the crave, power, and wealth. Such a person is called Manmukh, facing towards desires. Guru Nanak saw the world's problems at the negative effects of ego. Hindu versus Muslim, Israeli versus Palestinian, sitting down wipers versus sandals. All of these conflicts are caused by ego and maya. The Guru Granth Sahib said it is not religion or race, but it is wealth that divides brothers. But Guru Nanak taught that there was no other direction people could face. By being a spiritual person, practicing compassion, truth, contentment, humility, and love, and meditating on God, you could instead become Granth Mukh facing towards the Guru. How does one become Granth Mukh and ego-less? Well, Sikhism offers a path to follow that can help, called the Three Pillars. Three, Three Pillars. The Three Pillars are One Naam Jaapau, which is meditation on God and reciting and chanting of God's name, Way Guru. This is normally done in the morning and before bed. This isn't supposed to just be some mindless ritual either. Six, are supposed to genuinely reflect on the qualities of God as they do this. Two, correct Karni. Working hard and making it on this living. Guru Nanak said, only he who earns his living by the sweat of his brow and shares his earnings with others has discovered the path of righteousness. Three, One Chakna. This is sharing the fruits of your labor with others, bringing free food and donating to the community. The Sikh tradition of a communal meal or lunger at the Gurdwaras is a part of One Chakna. The lunger or communal free kitchen inside of the Sikh Gurdwara, which is their equivalent of a mosque or church, is open to all who visit, regardless of caste, faith, or gender. These serve vegetarian food to all, not because Sikhs have to be vegetarian, but simply because that means all people of all diets can partake.  In Guru Nanak's time, the idea of different castes sitting together on the floor and eating side by side was a revolutionary act. Famously, the Mughal Emperor Akbar visited Guru Arjan and the Guru would not meet with him until he partook in a lunger, which the Emperor did, sitting side by side with peasants. Guru Nanak claim an enlightened person are those who view everyone equally, like the heir, touching the king, and beggar, and like. Another vital part of Sikhism that isn't one of the three pillars is Seva, which is selfless service. True service to their community, Sikhs can become more humble and overcome their ego. Sikhs can include peening up the Gurdwara, or cleaning dishes in the lunger, or it can include volunteering, building things for your community, or subscribing and ringing the notification bell. This is a really good video. With God's name, honest work, and sharing, along with selfless service and avoiding the five thieves, a person can rid themselves of egoism and be released from the cycle of rebirth and death. Four, the calsa. Guru Gobind Rai was the son of the ninth Guru, Tehg Bahadur, who was beheaded by the Mughals and his body was abandoned by his Sikh entourage. They fled easily because no one could recognise them. So Guru Gobind decided to give Sikhs a distinct look from now on so that they would always be compelled to uphold Sikh values. So in 1699, Guru Gobind brought his Sikhs together at Anandapur.  The shot crowd was silent for a while before one Sikh rose up and entered the Guru's tent. The Guru followed him in and then the Guru comes out with blood on his sword. He demands another sacrifice. Another Sikh offers himself and enters the tent.  Again, another sacrifice. And again, and finally, after the sixth sacrifice, the Guru re-emerges with the five Sikhs all wearing saffron-coloured robes. The Guru declares that these are the Panj Pairay, the five beloved ones. They would form the centre of a new Sikh community called the Calsa. He offered them amrit, a bowl of sweet water. And all five who belonged to different caste groups drank the amrit for the same bowl which would have been huge to them. This signified they joined a new caste-less family. The Calsa, each of these volunteers have to leave behind their old surname or caste names and adopt the same surname. Which comes from the Sanskrit word simba, meaning lion. I know, right? It has no relation to the Bantu word simba, which also means lion. It's just a weird coincidence, which is great. The Guru then begged the five beloved ones to let him join their Calsa. They offered him the amrit and the Guru became Guru Gobind Singh. Women were admitted to the Calsa the same way as men. After drinking the amrit, they received the surname Kaur, meaning princess. The Calsa gave the Sikhs a new unified identity, tied together as one family with one name, without caste, with the goal of defending the weak and promoting justice. Today, many Sikhs still undergo the amrit ceremony and take the surnames Singh and Kaur. The Calsa were also given new rules to follow, which included the wearing of the panchakkar, or the five caves. The first was kes, which is uncut hair to represent discipline. The second was kargal, a small comb in the hair. The third was a carpan, a sword to uphold justice and protect the weak, which is nowadays usually a small sword. It is importantly not an offensive weapon and the Sikh code of conduct claims it can only be used to destroy tyrants and oppressors. It must not be used for anything else. The fourth is kakahira, kind of loose-fitting boxer shorts to represent the sexual restraint. And the fifth is kara, a steel bracelet in circular shape, represents the infinity of God. Interestingly, the turban is not one of the five caves. Instead, it's worn to cover the Sikhs' long uncut hair, the kes. Turbans have become essential to Sikh identity and hold very special significance to them. Chances are, if you see someone wearing a turban, that vast majority of the time, that person will be a Sikh, not a Muslim. Five, the guru grants a heave. The guru grants a heave is the holy book of the Sikhs. It contains the teachings of the gurus and acts as a spiritual guide for Sikhs around the world. It is probably one of the only holy books that contains not only the writings of their religious founders, written by themselves, rather than after their death, but also the writing of people from other religions. Writings of Muslims and Hindus can be found throughout, along with references to Judaism, Buddhism and Christianity. Before his death in 1708, the 10th guru, Guru Gobind Singh, ended the line of human gurus by bestowing guruship on the Adi Granth, turning it into the Guru Granth Sahib, making it similar to both the Bible and Koran and the living prophet at the same time. To break down the name, the word guru means guru. Granth means book and sahib means lord. Since that moment, the guru grants a heave has been revered as the current living guru. It is treated with extreme respect and care. Ugly enough, the grant is not only read, but sung. It's made up of thousands of hymns. Sikhs don't have mass or service, but a kirtan, meaning communal singing. Normally, these are said to classical Indian music. Six, the Gurdwara. Six gather at Gurdwaras, a word meaning doorway to the guru. A Gurdwara is only a Gurdwara because it has a copy of the guru grants a heave in it. Men and women of all castes and social standing gather there to join in prayer, singing and eating. This is where you'll find the lumber. Anyone can visit a Gurdwara and partake in the service and meal. You only need to follow basic etiquette. Cover your head, remove your shoes, wash your hands as you enter, and do your best not to bring any drugs or drugs inside. The most important Gurdwara in the world is the Hari Mandir or Golden Temple in Amritsar, India. In 1604, Guru Arjan completed work on the Golden Temple and had the Guru Granth Sahib installed in site. As a gesture of religious tolerance, Guru Arjan invited a Muslim, Mian Mir, to lay the foundation stone of the Golden Temple. The temple has four doors opening on all four sides. To show the openness to all cultures and peoples. But on the inside, only one door leads to the inner cycle, indicating that all paths and beliefs eventually lead to the one God. The Golden Temple is the most visited place in the world with around six million visitors each year. The longer at the Golden Temple serves a free meal to about 100,000 people each day, making it the world's largest free-serving kitchen, all run and staffed by volunteers. And the waiting list to volunteer in the Golden Temple has hundreds of thousands of names on it. The people on that list will be waiting for a long time. A good way for them to pass the time productively will be to listen to audiobooks following their time. While researching to be able to listen to Sigism, a very short introduction by Eleanor Nezvit, which is an excellent bite-sized introduction to Sigism, stated in very clear language for people that are completely new to the topic. And if you want to go right to the source, Audible even has the complete 90-plus hour Guru Granth Sahib also available. Audible makes it easier than ever to fit audiobooks into your schedule. I think what's that? Yeah, the rest of it is... I was double-checking to make sure there was nothing left in that one. Good video. Really informative and really entertaining. Yeah, one, it's great when you have a long video that you not only obviously gives you good information that you need to, but kind of put in some humor. And the visuals were great, and it just kept me engaged. And I learned a whole lot of stuff I had not previously known. And we went to the Golden Tower, which were all our favorite days, even though we had only literally one day in Amritsar. But that is a standout memory that they... That place is insane. Like there's... It has as many people as Disneyland. There's a certain peace in the place. Absolutely. You can't describe the wall unless you've been there. It's really incredible. But yeah, that's one thing that I've definitely learned about Six is their willingness to not only help people, and that's a core belief of theirs. And that should I think should be a core belief of I think anybody, but especially a religion, is to help others. But the fact that they also have gone to war with other religion, not in contention, but for the religions to defend their rights to their religion, or they've I think done it with, I think both Muslims and Hindus, and I don't know if they've done it with Christians as well, but I'm sure they have. But their whole thing, I'm guessing, is just to everybody's equal, which is a great foundation to have because everyone is equal. But it's kind of crazy that it was one of the first religions to actually incorporate that into their core beliefs. Yeah, I would like, I would really love to talk to somebody either privately or in an interview, but I would love to see where they reconcile the differences between the world religions and see what it is in their writings that do that and how they do that. It's very intriguing. And it's, we talked about this when we were reviewing the Great Indian Kitchen that what I found, the only unified belief system religion that I know of that hasn't had at one point or currently still has an ostracizing and a pushing away of women in menstruation are them. They don't consider that to be an unclean thing that is a sign of the life, the getting power of a woman. They just never cease to impress and be awesome. And they're some of the best people we all love to meet as well. So yeah, very informative video. Really, really enjoyed that so let us know all the videos like this we should react to in the decision information that that was wrong or they missed, obviously let us know, let us know down below. Thank You for Watching!


Welcome to the channel. This is reliable Rudy in this video We'll be making our part three for Walt Disney Company, but we're focused on the stock analyzer tool We'll be plugging numbers. We'll be hopping over to Macro trends and using that to help us kind of plug in numbers and also using some of the data that we've retreat Acquired in the part one and part two Disney videos But before I get into this, I am not a licensed financial advisor Everything in this video contains only my opinion and it's for entertainment purposes only Also have no individual holding in Walt Disney except for potentially in my VT Vanguard total stock market index fund So I have nothing to gain with the information that I'm presenting. I'm just stating my opinion Okay, so getting into this video. We're going to start with the revenue growth So I'm over here on macro trends. I have Disney's revenue from 2010 to 2022 pulled up now as stated in the last When I went over the orange report and they had 26% growth right here And I'm going to zoom in so we can see this stuff a little bit better Okay, so you can see here's that 26% revenue growth that they that they had now as I stated that it was possible that from 2021 and even in the 2020 that they had easy comparable years To compare against so you can see the following years after negative 40 negative 20s and negative 13 They posted 44% 26 34 23 and 26 Do I think this large spike in revenue is sustainable going into the future for a 10-year analysis? Remember my job is to be conservative. I want to Bacon as much margin of safety as I possibly can So going to this revenue growth. I was very focused on the financials of Disney through my first couple videos from the data From 2006 to 2018 now you can see down here We see the growth metrics that they had now they had a couple Double-digit growths, but for the most part consistent single-digit growth and on the higher single-digit a little bit mid couple decreases here, but pretty consistent growth from 20 to 2006 all the ways to 2018 So do I think this growth right here is sustainable? I'm not going to be plugging in 20% plus revenue growth but for Disney it's a matter of how long is it going to take them to get back on track to those Consistent years of profitability growth and etc. Stuff like that So for this first one for Disney we're going to be a little bit on the wider side I want to get a wide range to get a feel for For some of these projections, so we're going to start with 5% This is just saying 10-year analysis. They're going to consistently be able to put up 5% I do think this is probably on the low side, but that's why at the low assumption We'll use 10 and 15 so wider range margin right here compared to what I normally do But as I said, I just want to get a feel for some of these projections right here So next we have profit margin now I should zoom in so you guys can see this a little bit better We will zoom into 150% you guys should be able to see that pretty good right there So now we're going to go over to margins and Right here we can see the profit margins of the company now same scenario that those last Three years if we go back to the everything money tab here's their five-year profit numbers now I've already stated that these last three years are definitely skewing their profit margins There's no question about it that the last three years have definitely hurt them So I'm not really as focused in plugging numbers in base off of this but in the end I still want to be conservative so looking from 2010 to 2018 we can see we got a range Consistent growth all the ways up so that ranges from 9% to 16% now I can play around with these profit margins. However, I see fit But it would make sense to use numbers for when they get back on track in between 9 to 16% So I guess I'm gonna run a couple different variations of this But for starters they are you can see right here. We're not near that yet their last quarter They put up what was it six point four percent? But the year before they had five point three percent as we showed in the earnings report the second video for Disney So how long is it going to take them to get back on track? Even at this range so for a low assumption. I still want to Try bacon as much margin of safety as possible for a so for a profit margin that I feel comfortable with would be You know probably six to eight percent on the low side So we'll do a couple different metrics of this will use six ten and 14 now 14 I feel is being very generous saying that they're still far Decent a ways away from getting back on track with this. So 14 is probably on the higher side Now for free cash flow margins, we'll use these same numbers six ten and fourteen This is going to be a wide number right here for sure Now PE I'm going to match the PE to the revenue growth that I am getting that I'm getting generated to So for a five percent revenue growth, I'm probably only willing to pay like a 12 maybe a 14 But then you got to add into account Disney they have a large moat there's going to be buyers for Disney in general Because it's Disney because they have all these great brands so I could bump that up So I said 12 the 14 range for a five percent. Okay, I'll give that a Probably a 15 to 18 range. So on the low side here, we're going to use 16 Now for 10% I'm probably willing to pay that that's 16 to 18 range But because it's Disney we're going to add in that extra bit of PE that we're willing to pay for Disney. So we'll use 16 22 and 28 Now for a price-free cash flow, we're going to use these same numbers I'm not worried about about the disconnect right here I'm just worried about getting a baseline projection out there now I want a 15% return for Disney because if I'm not getting a 15% return, I'm not going to change my investing strategy I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging into broadly diversified index funds like vt or vx us I know there's other options out there, but those are the two that I prefer So I want that 15% return. We're gonna hit analyze here I can see if I believe these top numbers right here Disney getting right back on track right away. Okay This is definitely interesting current price of a hundred and twenty three for a 15% return I can buy this at two hundred and twenty three dollars for a 15% return But how long is it going to take them to get back on track for these numbers now? I can also go in and tweak some of these numbers now if I were to look for Disney From a range in between this and kind of tighten these numbers down right here So I can see if I believe these middle assumptions these middle assumptions are are okay Now I could also lower some of these these PE metrics down to add more margin of safety And let's see what this looks like with a 14 18 and 22 14 18 22 That's going to drastically change where I want to buy the stock. So how much margin of safety do I want to bake into this? So nonetheless If we go back to the metrics tab We can see Disney was trading under a hundred dollars right here If I was plugging in these numbers for my analysis for Disney I'm I'm definitely starting to get attracted to this stock So I'm gonna hit this and we're gonna add this to a watch list right here Stay on this page and we're going to tweak some of these numbers down now We're gonna take out this low revenue growth and we're going to tighten this down in between these numbers We're gonna use 10 to 14 now We're also gonna play around these profit margins a little bit now on that low side if we go back to profit margins We can see I like this this 9% baseline I think it's very realistic for them to get back on track at this 9% profit margin level over a 10 year analysis So we're gonna use that for our baseline start on the low side now Right here, we're going to use 11 and we're going to use 13 and we're gonna use the same margins for free cash flow Now for this revenue growth, I'm going to pay a little bit higher right there. So I'm gonna use 18 You know for for Disney we are going to add a little bit extra incentive there. We're gonna use 20 22 and 24 now I know that's higher than my first assumption, but for the sake of this initial Model right here. We're going to use 20 22 and 24 We're gonna hit analyze now. I can see if I believe these high numbers. I'm definitely interested in the stock now middle assumptions Disney was trading in between here if I believe these numbers right here for Disney to get back on track I'm definitely interested in the stock right here But this is going to complete my stock analyzer tool. I have a decent idea of Where I want and I believe I had mentioned before I was pretty close to buying Disney I'm not even gonna lie and you're gonna see that on our next video when I pull up the chart and I have not changed anything with my chart and going into this video When I pulled up the chart, I seen everything that I had laid out and I was very interested I almost started a position in Disney But you guys will be able to see that information on the next video I hope you guys enjoy the content here and we'll see you on the next one


This is one among several audiobooks. I've been listening to while driving on my 50th Street tour I've read Neil Gaiman before there was the one book Stardust, which I gave a soft recommendation to and There's been some short stories, which I've been half-and-half on The two that come to mind most prominently are Troll Bridge and the problem of Susan both of which are good, but they contain bizarre and uncomfortable sexual References and those being my initial exposure to his writing have led me to believe that That that's what he does The 24 pieces in this book however don't necessarily follow that model I say 24 pieces because they're not all Stories some of them are poems and some of them are poem-like stories But there are some good long prose fiction pieces in here not everything in the book is excellent But everything is good and the ones that are excellent are some of the best short fiction I've ever read that will stick with me forever in particular. I'll briefly describe two of them Number one the truth is a cave in the Black Mountains It takes place in a kind of medieval fantasy Scotland, I guess Where a dwarf hires a retired thief to take him on a journey across the Sea of Mists to a cave where people can supposedly find gold and bring out all they want, but they pay a price of Becoming a little more evil every time they bring gold out and then that turns out not to be entirely true But the story really is a beautiful and entirely new mythology it contains a lot of surprises and Most importantly for the audiobook which I recommend specifically in this case Neil Gaiman himself reads it and he does some really charming Scottish accents that I think should be heard The other story I want to mention is The sleeper and the spindle which is Gaiman's retelling of the sleeping beauty story It has been published independently as a picture book and again it is very different and very surprising and This is specifically an audiobook version that I strongly recommend Please remember to press that like button it helps my videos get seen And then subscribe so you can come back next time I do science fiction book TV and movie reviews all the time and please consider becoming a patron There's a link in the description below when you pledge at the $20 level I will send you a random science fiction book in the mail every month


My best advice to the new student is to find good accommodations, which you feel comfortable and which is not so far from the campus. Go through the website that recommended by your university like Gumtree. I reckon to try to be open and just experience new culture in Australia. Do a little bit of research before you sign any contract or make any decision. Keep in touch with the senior awardees and also to be a member of your own universities and discussion groups or international students groups. They are very resourceful and helpful. Open your mind and you should know to broaden the horizon to see the world and find your way to make the change for the better world.