and do it again Um, so I'm just going to move on now With a question for professor shira haset obviously a huge I don't really know what to say, but a terrible event in japan recent times has been the the sudden death of Not professor prime minister abe shinsa former prime minister abe shinsa And I think it's a good time and instead of we haven't really delved into this today is just to reflect on His women only womenomics policy the legacy of it Obviously, this was a really concerted effort By the longer serving prime minister in japan to really make some significant Change and so I was wondering what you think This womenomics policy. What does it sort of reveal about? The entrenched obstacles to sort of achieving greater Um workplace. Um, absolutely woman makes so cold This some, you know inference, you know made some Impact on the japanese society when I heard about his, you know, uh policy towards promoting You know a woman in the labor market. I thought okay He's going back to home and become out of the labor market This is a this is one of the you know way of driving force to make the japanese society You know economically successful make the woman more active And this is a quite, you know, twist and a new trick. I mean that and promoting actually Announcing his kind of the mission But okay good and bad. I have to confess But you know Division client actually rather expanding So the her and his attention is pulling up rather, you know top tier of the woman And then the some majority of the woman who stuck with you know stuck make the you know attitude survey A majority woman they don't want to, you know Work part time full time because there are too much, you know time to work with So there's a trick is basic system themselves has not changed but you know prime minister abe Announced or show his high expectation say that this is a great chance To push, you know our, you know, uh weak point is making better if You know success Wonderful. Thanks very much for that those great reflection of the interesting almost global trends We've noticed that it was particularly pronounced in the united states has been the so-called rose and Shifted to other jobs, but interestingly this phenomenon didn't seem to emerge in japan So i was wondering professor ono if you could explain why we haven't seen that So in the united states that, you know, do you have this this Unemployment levels are, you know historically quite low to begin with 15% in in a matter of months Um And then it came down, but they what what happened the great resignation Was not Uh dismissal right so these are people that are voluntarily quitting their jobs Because they revisited, you know, this again with respect to what i said earlier But i said well what is important to figure out what's important to me And in large numbers people figured out that this is not the kind of job that they wanted right So they basically walked out But who can do that who can do that it's the people that have outside options right so Great resignation is basically a phenomenon where people That are able to And what happened in japan is that You know with coveted, you know coveted hit in early 2020 And what happened to the unemployment rate? Well nothing happened virtually nothing happened to the unemployment rate And this goes back to again the earlier mornings path to whatever's happening in the economy right so Unemployment shoots up to 15 percent in united states in japan it remains virtually flat. So where is all that going? You know, so it's being again. It's being absorbed by the companies So the companies are absorbing this great massive macro level inefficiency within their organizations But nobody got laid off so You know, is that a good thing? Or a bad thing because in the morning we again we talked about the positive correlation between labor turnover labor mobility and economic growth And also labor mobility and productivity is what shirakawa sensei was talking about this morning So yes, there was no Unemployment and there's no change in unemployment But because the companies are absorbing that inefficiency It's going to have a quite prolonged recovery As a result of it and no, you know, and the united states I would protect would come out of this much faster than Japan right it's kind of like Maybe you know afterwards we can talk about this as well, but it's it's going back into macroeconomics But so that's the reason I think it's a big difference You talk about, uh, you know, Japanese, um Uh, shirakawa-san this morning talked about how the survival rates of inefficient companies are actually hiring in in japan In the united states if you look at that as an individual level inefficient workers are retained In significantly large numbers right so lifetime employment. That's basically what it is. It's that you will protect your employment um, regardless of whether You're productive or not. It's a it's a commitment that we make to the people but The trade-off is that it could, you know, have a macro level, you know, like prolong the economic recovery Very interesting. Thank you for that great explanation Um, I think the next question I'll direct to professor shirahase, but I I think perhaps, um, professor ono also would like to jump in So when talking about the demographic trends in japan and Specifically the declining fertility rate and you know the acceleration of the aging society You you took quite a bit about delayed marriage is one of the issues, but we've also seen a phenomenon Emerging especially in recent years in japan whereby many women and I guess by default men too Uh, deciding that they just want to be lifetime singles. Yeah, they have no intention of getting married and Society's even becoming restructured to accommodate these singles with special restaurants and you know accommodations for for single people So I was wondering if you could talk about what's maybe driving this phenomenon in japan Actually, uh, never married rate is rather, you know, increasing and among men is after you measure or See the you know percentage of being married at the age of 50 We can't and call it, you know, never married rate anymore But it's quite high more than, you know, one fourth or something I never married so very closely associated with disadvantage in economic situation So again the causality issues are that profounding but because they are not reaching us You know or ready enough to get married for the man side or the for the woman of the story that getting higher Leveling up The rate of being Never married but as a whole majority of the people has experienced to get married But then again the marriage status Maritime behavior are closely related to Economic situation in japan and can a various, you know You know briefly I like to touch with the honor of sense is the comment What's it that happened to mackle of a structure in any side? But I think the final goal making the mackle Structure that changed but again, I like the demographic situation Structure change is really hard to change. I make it a change But then the final goal should be make the change to mackle level Otherwise, you know within the mackle there are the many things that happen in the ever the Unemployment rate it looks like, you know, it doesn't change at all But if you're breaking down the age group and the educational levels or cohort So there are a kind of, you know Changing inside. So this is of course a compositional type of, you know factors in there But and then again, you know, it looks like it doesn't change at all But it doesn't mean necessarily things are not, you know, happening in japan. They are the happening But then it, you know, visually it's quite Profounding, you know, if you look only at them, you know mackle level situation Interesting. Would you like to add anything, Professor? I mean, I guess I could add a comment from the world of work The I think the big inequality in employment right now is this The gap between the standard versus the non-standard workers and one of the Trends that we see post bubble period Especially compared to the 1990s is we have this increasing army of non-standard workers, right? So it's getting it's getting more and more difficult to find those stable Full-time positions what we call lifetime employment, right? So The The percentage of people in non-standard employment Are It's like 40% now. So, you know And and expanding and disproportionately that tends to be feeding in unstable employment Kind of opt out of the marriage market, you know, they feel like they're not qualified That they're not making enough money. They don't have stable employment And until I can have a full-time job and be financially responsible I don't feel like I should get married, right? And this is another big reason behind, you know, the delayed marriage Which exacerbates the fertility problem. So, you know, these are this is like economy meets society That I think that all, you know, these structural changes are all related Yeah, but I sorry, can I I have to say that this is a trap not only for women But also men as well and of christened, you know Part time the gap between the, you know, regular and the non-regular workers really high each band because They try to protect the so-called conservative type of the full-time work So as we completely try to change the the definition or position of Them, you know, uh, full-time work or so-called long-term work, you know, things can be changed So we need quite drastic, you know, uh reform in order to make it change So getting back to the obvious, you know, uh, Prime Minister's obvious order mix So he I thought he's a kind of great, you know, realistic Politicians, so he is really, you know, sensitive what they want and they propose a woman mix But they I'm not sure whether he doesn't touch very core in an input so-called That's why If I could add one more thing about, you know, this the question that I get a lot is like, why don't we have more women's leadership positions in Japan and You know, you you think about this from the most gender discrimination and women are exploited from the workplace And then on the supply side You have women that don't want to go into these leadership positions Right. And so there's both things going on and I I've done We're actually doing this survey of gender and diversity issues and I'm not denying that, you know, there's, you know, discrimination in the workplace, but there's a large Part of this problem is that women generally don't want to go into these positions. Okay. Can I Sorry, sorry, but you know what, you know, I always yes I do understand and a lot of people said that but first of all Have you asked this kind of question to men? You want to be a manager or not? This is kind of nonsense If you continue to, you know develop your own career and take a higher managerial position I think this is a kind of the, you know, uh, working part So do not ask young women, you know, whether you'd like to be a manager Of course, if I were I say no and I'm the one who didn't this expect to do this role But again, everything is so behind so do not make this kind of survey No, it's it's based on interviews and But so what I wanted to say is that The men the men also, you know, have very similar responses But it's not like, you know, the men aspire to be in these positions as well I mean, so what I'm saying is that The work conditions in Japanese companies Are just not very attractive And this is true for both men and women So it's not like the men have it easier off than the women, right? I mean, you ask any Japanese salaryman 40 50, you know, like it's not a desirable position. I guarantee you it's not a very good position And happiness levels are actually lower, right, you know, by of Japanese members as Japanese women. And so Um, one solution to this not just, you know, job Not just going beyond gender Is that you have to make Japanese jobs more attractive You know, that there's something about the way we work going back again Makes people unhappy Uh, makes miserable Uh, it's almost like Gaman is is is a very very good virtue and Ganbaru is a good virtue Um, but but it's not about that, right?  So right now we're kind of stuck in the other side where we have a lot of army of unhappy people That are unproductive working long hours and it's just it's really bad cycle That's that's something that we have to get out and the father can I And the father more the image when they you know answer the question very male dominated Made if you like increase more female, you know, uh, female riskier and their, you know, orientation maybe So great you can see a really excellent debate is is coming out here and it'll be wonderful to hear audience Opinions too and just to slightly change track our third panelist, um, professor Carol Hayes Is a linguist she's got a lot of um talents actually And one of the things she's been grappling with um in her research Throughout the pandemic has been the the sort of impact that the pandemic has had on the psyche In japan and obviously it's it's awakened the kind of apocalyptic Sense in many people and this even comes through in in anime and other forms of pop culture in japan and so they're the kind of questions that that she was interested in in sort of Grappling within her research is you know, how do we come to terms with not knowing what terrible things Await us in society and not knowing what fate awaits us in the future That was one of the terrible things when the pandemic started. No one knew how long this is going to go for It's gone for a lot longer than any of us expected And how do we talk about apocalyptic horror and what what kind of narratives? Are being used and how do we we tell future generations? And her her response to these these questions was She says I have a deep belief in the power of storytelling To show how communities deal with issues of significance and manuals manage social change That's why she she looks at pop culture to get a sense of this as well and just as my cancer treatment and my battle with glioblastoma brain cancer is teaching me new words and narratives So covered So has covered provided the world with a new lexicon for pandemic and contagion I guess. I mean, this is my comment. Some may call it the kind of medicalization of society. We've seen And a set of terms which are culturally oriented to map how we deal with it So we have new words But we also have new images and the visualization of contagion has always been critical to help people deal with an amorphous and invisible threat Whether the grim reaper the plague doctors of the middle ages godzilla or the image of the covet molecule as an organic satellite It's moist spikes floating through our blood and inculcating our immune systems Popular culture is often revealing in helping us to understand how a culture works And how a community responds to this threat From the nursery rhymes of the past ring a ring a roses To the anime of today's japan even to very popular smartphone game and avatar involving the governor of tokyo to reinforce Social distancing in pandemic tokyo It's been instructive in this context to look at the hugely successful recent blockbuster series demon slayer In this anime the demons and their slayers serve as a metaphor for our human fear of the other And highlight our failure to protect and sustain social and natural environments These gothic demons are very much like the classic oni demons which challenge how a community sees others and its social norms and identities And in demon slayer draw their strength from from blood and its corruption in others The parallels to covet are evident just as other monster narratives In japan from oni to godzilla have provided visual and narrative ways to help people come to terms with amorphous threats carol's currently doing a research project with dr. Emerald king from the university of tasmania on this at the moment so Watch this space there. There'll be more coming out on this soon So really grateful to carol for for sending through her contribution to help us to understand How people are managing on a psychological level dealing with the uncertainty around covid through pop culture. It's quite fascinating So obviously we we can't have questions particularly on on that topic right now But i'd like to invite questions from two two of the best sociologists in japan here with us At a new it's a great opportunity To maybe share your thoughts on on what's come up or or to ask your own questions Just get the mic Hello, my name is serena. I'm a student here doing japanese studies at a and u My question is for professor shira hase. Thank you for your keynote speech I was wondering if you could expand a little bit more on your last slide You talked about one of the solutions being the flexibilization of the workforce My understanding of flexibilization is that sometimes people who opt to have flexible work Might be more vulnerable to being laid off in times of economic crisis So I was just wondering if you could expand a little bit more on what you mean. Thank you Thank you very much. Actually, I didn't have time and then I have to confess that I couldn't you know Sold it out, you know, what should be them? You know, what should be the main, you know point I should you know emphasize But on the micro level, maybe You know nurturing culture is very very important indeed Because you know, it's not that easy changing the norms and changing expectations Which closely attached to every kind of aspect including the way of working and who take care of the sick children So every moment this kind of norms and expectations is attached So how we can break through this kind of, you know Existing very strong obstacles. It's not that easy But thing is otherwise, maybe the turning children, you know, Shira Kawasen said We need a kind of consensus to I think this is a fact almost a fact If we, you know, continue to keep very Old-fashioned type of models that in Japan we can't survive And furthermore, we can no longer waste our good, you know assets of the society Which is a younger generation or even the future generation, you know to utilize their talent So it's ours to change the judgment and the nurture Okay, then making a mistake is also very, you know, important indeed So the turning back to the you know, ono sense is, you know point So the leadership with various type of, you know, background is very important because you can see the leaders Which you can guide or judge your own behavior So the leadership we can be very, you know, a discretionary judgment be done Very instantly that's the more core important thing So in order to make these kind of people more Maybe we do change very drastically our reform Thank you Great, more questions. We've got quite a few. Maybe we can even take two questions Three, okay Yeah, we'll take two. Thank you Thank you. I'm Hayley Channer from the Perth US Asia Center Today we've talked a lot about demographics and the role of women And I'm really interested because I come from a defense and security background I'm interested in the psyche of the Japanese public in terms of world events And without trying to go into the defense session, which is coming later this afternoon What do events like things such as Abishinzo's assassination and things like the war in Ukraine What kind of psychological impact is that have in the world? Wow That's really difficult We'll just take one more, right? We can take is there. Yeah, we'll take two questions. Yep. Sorry Yep She did back up the lady are waiting actually. Yeah, so We'll take this one and then we'll take the other one next. Yep. Go for it No, no. Okay. Yep. We'll take two Hi, I'm Sharona. I'm a speechwriter at DFAT Um, I just wanted to I was really interested. We sort of Talked about the great resignation and then I guess the other side of that when you're talking about the vicious cycle of low productivity And then unhappiness. Um, and that's something that for example, you know in china the tongue ping or lying flat Has been the sort of a movement that's picked up among youths At least a little bit. Um, and so I'm interested in whether you foresee any sort of similar social movement amongst young people in a, you know, sort of environment where productivity is low and you know potentially job satisfaction isn't high and people sort of feel like there isn't any movement to move Okay, and want to take okay. We can possibly take one more. Yeah, we'll take we'll collect questions and our panelists can address both I'll come to that one too. Oh, okay. Hi. I'm Lucia Second year at ANU studying international relations and majoring in all things japan my question is Women need to participate in the labor workforce and to do that there needs to be a higher level of education achieved But there's still that stigma that highly educated japanese women find it harder to find partners to marry I'm sure we've heard the stories of Todai female students grandparents crying because they got into todai. They're so worried about they're not getting married So how does that stigma effect Is that a factor in lower birth rates and fertility? And if so, like is there a solution to the stigma? Okay, great questions excellent questions So what I might do first is ask professor on or did you want to pick up on any of those questions? Sure, I I can ask I can answer the second person's question. Um, was it was relating specifically to the case of china? So like I can I can Um, yeah, one of the work that I do is actually work on happiness and international comparisons It's a very very top is dominated by Scandinavian countries, right? Sweden, norway, Denmark, finland Australia is pretty high as well because they have a very good social welfare state And towards the bottom you start seeing the post communist countries, so Hungry China as well, you know And so what we can learn from the top countries is that they also have extremely The shortest working hours in the world, right? So there's something about the way They have they have certain needs So I I observe the way the swedish people work They you know work short hours, but they're very productive while they're there They have a very very clear separation between work and family If anything say like I'd like to spend this much time with my family and for myself What do how much do I need to work? For leisure, right? And that's not going to be a path to happiness So I think in that sense many of the europeans have their priorities straight and this you know the So I think the countries that really have that you know that priority Straightened out achieve, you know high happiness and high productivity At the same time unfortunately what what happened with the post communist society is that they had a social safety net And so, you know suddenly that was taken away from them, right? And so that Being exposed to these market mechanisms is a big reason behind their unhappiness Not really sure if that answers your question But at least you know among the second Scandinavian countries great answer. Thank you. And now, okay Thank you for the very tough questions And you know, I'm not sure whether I'm ready to answer, you know setting right here And okay, um, you know the instance for abbe is really sorry about it So and everyone needs to start, you know, surprised actually what happened because japan was famous Has been famous that in a very safe country And but at the same time, I don't think we have We haven't clear enough To interpret well, I hopefully, you know, I can continue to discuss and Ukraine issues And this is you know more and more of the people that get the kind of attention, but I hope we can, you know, uh You know peace issues is quite global And we got an adamic bombing and we have the hero shima and an anasaki instance as well Quite a few young people involved in social movement actually nowadays through the snm So we have a very good, you know a kind of, you know motivation to speak up Or to feel what's going to happen But the thing is thing is we do not have enough infra To welcome a lot of people with various backgrounds say the mother tongue is in the japanese You know, this kind of infra hasn't been ready yet But again, not only the Ukraine, but also unfortunately a lot of, you know, international conflicts that are happening All over the world and so maybe in japan, we have the very unique and Experiences and the world world too So we can play a little bit more You know active role To relieve the discussion at least and make a collaboration Can be done So the maybe the one of the key issues is how to make the international collaboration More, you know, actually done is really the urgent issue. I think not only research area But also this kind of social problem area and the stigma towards an expectation is a tough question And japan can be characterized by in a very strong punishment Society if you do not follow a kind of, you know And expected path But again, you know, even those and you know, the things are changing So how we can support various voices Make it possible or easier To, you know, to raise a voices. That's really urgent issues.  Then now is an end every kinds of kids can reach out Not only in japan but also outside and make make make a team actually Make in the help of and make a friend actually that might be a great, great idea. I like to support this kind of situation Great. Thank you. And we have time for one more question which has come through online Thank you for sending through the question. So the question is About single mothers, which are sort of one of the most sort of in the most precarious demographic in in japan And often they're they're working full time and The society is very much geared towards, you know, economically supporting, you know Double parent house or two parent households So what kind of resources or policy measures could be taken to to improve their situation? And I'd like to ask both of our panelists. Would you like to sir professor? Sure. I can start Yeah, sure So, um, yes the question is about, uh, like policy measures that can be used to improve the status of single mothers. Um So, uh, you know, shirahasa sensei talked a lot about very strong gender norms and and family norms as well And this is another area where You know single mothers tend to be stigmatized, right and but That's But I guess this is a question about um policy. So what I can say is that, um We can there there are Uh particular measures and policy measures in place to protect the status of single mothers I think the problem The problem is that they erect certain barriers to to using this system, right? So not just single mothers, but like for example Um getting help at home Um For your parents You know, uh, you need to you need to prove a lot of things that is there, uh, uh Like a sibling or a child living nearby, you know Um, does this person really require help and there's a there's very many many layers of bureaucracy and of course paperwork because Everybody loves paperwork. So in the case of single mothers, you know, uh, the same thing happens that Uh, is there is it possible that your parents could help out? Extended family do they live nearby and to you know to establish these Roadblocks in itself is very very cumbersome and perhaps a little bit embarrassing for some people, right? Like why do I have to go through all these layers of paperwork in order to get this kind of subsidy? and so Basically what I learned from living in sweden Um is that you know, they really lower these barriers, right? They make it accessible It's universal And you ask for this kind of help and you get it So I think that's the kind of policy that we need is that, you know, minimize the paperwork And just lower the barriers to to take advantage of it Okay, uh, this is a quite, you know big issue and luckily this issue getting more, you know, attention from not only Media but also the politics actually for and the one the covet 19 has expanded actually has occurred and then the bureau of, you know, gender equity Organized Kind of in the working group and we you know raised some kind of urgent proposal includes Includes including, you know, uh, special, you know, assistant to The families with the low income particularly for low mom families But think is severe in again the question is yes, the policies support the single mom are increasing And but think is the very detailed system pretty much based on the existing system for instance Okay, the allowance, you know allowance for the child care during the covet 19 This allowance pays to the head of the families The head of the household tend to be the woman a man and a man and they got divorced And only the man has the right to get, you know, this kind of allowance This is a very tiny winning example But the system itself is assumptions is really still, you know, stick with a very very unconventional way So and the father more there are quite a lot of, you know, policies in there But thing is the people are overwhelmed such kind of information and dx and some kind of, you know, it Education's also and provided through the community But when they or how they can get this kind of information, you know for the very, you know And having the three, you know times Three working job pattern working job at the same time and how this kind of can be reached out to the very needy people We do not have this kind of, you know system in japan So, you know, how we can facilitate this, you know Increasing the number of policies and implementation A real implementation of these new policies and a kind of, you know, make it, you know Use a more easy way, maybe the urgent issue And the other thing is an opportunity of an equal opportunity for the kids raise and single mom families They have a very tough situation for the kids, you know kids can, you know, choose and their parents So from their side how we can guarantee Equal opportunities to get the higher education or good education is also very important issues Excellent. Thank you. And I wonder if Something that that might help, you know, sort of Mitigate against this idea of the man as head of the household is this sort of policy push towards allowing Women to retain their own surname that made a name when they get married And also when they get divorced because often this obviously head of household idea has revolved around the surname of the house So if that's that's that's kind of things. Yes very much closely attached. Yeah That's why the individual numbers, maybe uh, the numbers can be a key number to, you know, uh To connect to each other don't like, you know, that's kind of things Okay, great. Um, I think you'll agree with me that this has been a really Stimulating discussion. We've covered a lot of aspects of Japanese society, but in a very in-depth way Thanks to our brilliant panellists. I'd like to thank professor Hayes, professor Shirahase And professor on all for their wonderful contributions to the panel and for your question. So please join me in thanking them I believe now we're going to adjourn for afternoon tea. So please enjoy Thank you Well, welcome everyone to this our final session of today's wonderful japan update Where we'll be focusing on japan strategic choices Let me begin by acknowledging and celebrating that we're meeting this afternoon on the traditional lands of the nana war people And pay my respects to elders past and present My name's amy king And i'm an associate professor here in the strategic and defense study center coral bell school of age of pacific affairs at the anu I'm very delighted to to join everyone here today for this japan update The past 12 months have seen significant developments in japanese foreign and security policy both in response to domestic political changes Taking place within japan, but also equally in response to the global and regional challenges that japan is facing Russia's war in ukraine has raised pressing concerns for all countries But particularly on issues that have long been central to japan's sense of security and identity Issues like food and energy security And the but we've also seen the combination of regional order building activities that japan has had a central hand in helping to Shape things such as the regional comprehensive economic partnership As well as an increase in many lateral partnerships such as the quad At home japan is in the midst of revising the major documents that guide its foreign policy agenda Including the national defense program guidelines the medium term defense program and the national security strategy Those in economic security and human rights which reflect its foreign policy agenda And of course the assassination of former prime minister shinzo abe has left its mark not only on domestic policy within japan But of course on japan's foreign policy and national security choices To help us think through these and many other issues I'm delighted to have an all-star panel joining us both physically here in camber As well as via the wonders of of zoom I won't be providing extended biographies of all of our panelists their achievements are many And their biographies can be found in the program But please let me welcome yoko iwama professor of international at the university of tokyo And behind me on zoom Soya yoshi hide professor emeritus at keio university And evelyn go professor of shedden professor of strategic studies here at the australian national university Welcome to all of our panelists I've asked each of our panelists to provide about five minutes or so of remarks on issues that are of central to their own research agendas or concerns In in recent months and years We'll then turn to a wider discussion and questions including questions from you the audience. So please Get your questions ready and I will open up q&a Towards about the the midway point of the panel I'm going to start here in the in is facing japan its order building role and some of the recent developments in in in the region Thank you. Amy and thank you for Coming to this Lecture hall and also. Thank you for participating from zoom This is my first trip after the pandemic So i'm very excited to come back to australia And I spent my postdoctoral herosep here in a new so And so this is very very fortunate australia is my first destination after the pandemic. So i'm very grateful to come back here so I have contributed to this east asia forum quarterly So on the page 12, uh, you can find My essay so I think you know, I can give you five minutes to read my essay. So I don't need to speak up he is Actually, uh here, uh editor. I put to me. I put this essay great subtitle liberalism and a threat I think this is very good summary, uh for my essay and for kind of vision, uh, japanese government or japanese half now I mean We do want to see liberalism standing You know and surviving in this turbulent world, but you know, it is now under a big threat And what is a of perception and what is a lot of japan? This is what I want to Say in coming five minutes so, um us china library Uh has been biggest challenge for japan Japanese security policy and also japanese economy As you know, like australia, we really dependent has depended on chinese market And the growth of china is really important for japanese company and for japanese economies Beyond even beyond economics, you know, uh, we have many chinese people deciding in japan So to keep the years between japan china since 1972 we have, uh, kept the very important Uh diplomacy with china, uh, but which I can summarize as stability seeking diplomacy Even though we have admitted China has many problems, but china can be different tomorrow and In addition, it is very important to have stable relationship with china For japan's own interests, but also for regional interests even before trump administration It was it has become so serious from 2015 But it was japanese government and japan japan itself Who try to pass away united states to be more tough tougher on china After our island disputes, I mean, uh according to japanese government. This is not dispute, but anyway, but uh We have some issue, uh over senkaku island Between china and japan, so we start to we are really tough on china like since 2010, but When united states became so serious and also deepness of u.s. Approach to china because that might Be really tough for japan to take that is, you know economic impact like decoupling is too tough for japan to take And also to destabilize The relationship with china You know, I think uh our whole policy start to adjust ourselves to the new situation We have to admit You know china The diplomacy with china is tough We have to adjust to some extent our economies and the reality of our technology Or export of our technology to china To the new reality So I think it was a kind of learning process five years uh, so US china relations is really tough and you know, I think many many friends and colleagues In australia has the same concerns and the same dilemma You know to face with china challenge But what we have learned In tokyo in japan is we have to adjust ourselves to the new reality Because this rivalry between u.s. And china Cannot be stoppable Of course, we have to seek the better way to manage this competition But first first of all we have to adjust ourselves our mindset to the new reality new digital reality And you know, and we have to admit China The future of china or china tomorrow might not be what we have imagined 40 years ago. So This is the first thing I wanted to say now, but I have spent five minutes already This is very very tough But the second thing uh, that this is uh, the final thing I want to emphasize is we really have to You know, japan United state is not so helpful right You know, I think uh I think I believe all of you know very well about ipath in the pacific economic framework Which is meaningless framework ever, right? But that is the reality what united states and biden administration can do now, right? They have big obstacle in domestic politics. They cannot come back to tpp. They can do in the regional Regionalism or regional order building process has some limitation natural limitation But look at what happened the last few years like orcas quat Orcas quat fine fine. That is fine or Or TTC TTC is a framework between united states and eu To talk about like export control or economic security issue. That is fine But all mechanisms are us alliance based mechanism But you know that us based alliance mechanism has natural tendency To be I mean to have kind of exclusiveness itself, right? So what we really need I mean, what we I mean is australia and japan really need to do is how can we Get back real inclusive mechanism right, so cpt pp Is of course a very good step And also, uh, we we can We can promote quality infrastructure is very important but That is That is very important, you know to admit united state is just a one player one of them one player In buildings and new regional institutions We have to admit that if not we cannot Make our profits in this region in this rising region so Maybe what japan first first to do is azian And and also korea And even with china we really need to make a more robust cooperation or was talk over economy or rulemaking things But also with australia. We have to cooperate more over pacific islands Or with new gland or with india and with other countries And even with global south so I think uh, you know This is what I wanted to say. That's my second item and I stop here. So thank you very much. Thank you There is a lot that's quite remarkable in what you've said just now before I remark on that though I think it provides a very nice segue into Evelyn goes What I expect will be evlyn's comments given the nature of her interest in japan and its order building role So evelyn, I might turn to you now If you could perhaps give us a few of your thoughts It's a pleasure to be on this panel with Sashi-san Iwama sensei and so I said thank you very much for the time It's it's it's hard isn't it to to know what to focus on in five minutes worth of remarks So let me let me plunge in but perhaps to as as as a segue to echo Amy in appreciating the very stark picture that Sashi-san's for you know painted for us um of that japanese vision of A regional order which is fundamentally inclusive Which fundamentally yes does Does center itself in about the other? players structures institution and um normative frameworks that that that need to underpin any regional order and certainly should be at the forefront of our minds As we think about the transition into a new order today um So I hope that the three points i've got to make very quickly in the five minutes that god may help us to think to some of that I thought that perhaps what I can best contribute to this panel is three points which Which come at a edit from japan come at japan's security choices from from a broader strategic Point of view. So my first point um is a reminder really about japan as such a pivotal player in the contemporary east asian order Right. Um, what do I mean by japan's a pivotal player? Um, I i'm really alluding to the centrality of the japan-china relationship As well as the centrality of the japan-us alliance For the nature of the regional order that we find ourselves in Of course, it's common to think about distribution of power, but i'm not alluding to distribution of power I actually mean the nature of the regional order that that that we've got and that is necessary that if japan chooses A different alignment between china and the united states than what it's had today, right? um That choice will cause the regional order to tip into a different place, right? So that's a very quick idea of That reminder of japan as the pivotal player In the contemporary order now being a pivotal player means that when we think about japan's security choices We all we we need to think about them not only in the context of japan's politics Or japan's strategy, but we think about the system effects of japan's security choices The key choices that japan makes out japan's most important role In the regional order to date, right? And that role is as the us hegemonic supporter, right? By its subordination to the us in the post-cold war continued subordination to the united states in the post-cold war period By its reiterated choices to be constrained Both by its constitution and by the alliance with the united states japan has essentially propped up US hegemony in east asia for nearly 80 years Just consider what the regional order would be the nine To have formed a closer relationship something much more kin You know to a more balanced sort of alignment With each other, right? We would be facing today a radically different kind of regional order um That we can think about system effects of japan's security choices in also more narrow issue area Issue areas so we think about taiwan contingencies for example Which is something very much of course on many minds today You know at any sort of gaming of a taiwan contingency very often begins With a cozy assumption that japan will necessarily support US offensive operations in the taiwan states Without japan's role in that support Other allies the effects of japan's security choices Uh can be thought about there. I'll say a bit about the economic thing in my third dimension in my third point Let me move quickly to my second point again second point on the table also a reminder That as we face the uncertainties Today and going moving ahead. There are two black elephants Which you know, I'm constantly reminding people that we need to keep in our minds when considering japan's strategic choices What now black elephants as those of you who are familiar with Horizon scanning or say first is the external black elephant and that's us reliability This variable is increasingly salient due to systemic instabilities within the us political system Right. These are systemic Instabilities in the u.s. Domestic political system is not just a case of one capricious president Right And a reminder, of course They're all better off for japan and for the region if the us cannot be countered upon To maintain order from the apex of that regional hegemonic order that we've taken for granted terms of the multiple ways In which japan needs to work In order to Prop up a more inclusive regional order today The internal black elephant the second one is the prospects of Significant domestic level changes in in japan that would significantly shift the parameters of japan as a strategic actor One of these obvious ones is the prospects of constitutional amendment, which is an issue which has been Debate Assassination now many domestic constraints remain of course despite the super majority of the ldp and the coalition partners But the borderline here is we don't tend to pay enough attention to how the japanese policy changes We prefer still to black box Japanese domestic politics so that we can take for granted Certain comfortable assumptions we want to make about japan and japan's security choices That the us and its allies can count upon When thinking about strategic scenarios in this region and my my reminder here Is that the time for that kind of comfortable assumption is passed For both these black elephant reasons now very quickly to my third point because i'm out of time now My third point for for the discussion is about the enhanced economic security nexus Right that really comes to the fore when we when we look at japan's security choices over the last 12 to 18 months Once again, of course, japan is the vanguard Right of that very conscious practice of thinking about security in a comprehensive way That doesn't necessarily split military security from economic security. The two things are thought about together traditionally within The japanese imagination and quite rightly the present company on this panel has always emphasized those tight interconnections to and you've just heard So she has not over the past 12 to 18 months. It really shows japan continuing to lead Right in bringing the economic elements of security to the forefront where other regional states should really follow Right, um, but there is a new element too over the last year or so these practices at the nexus of economic insecurity Are currently finding significantly more resonant both with the region and importantly with the united states than before So the strategic environment is causing other access in the region to catch up with japan In thinking about the tight interconnections between economics and security And we can highlight some of these issues some of these examples in You know in thinking about the launching for example, you know the relaunching of An economic security agenda really at the forefront of a number Of japan's foreign antings that we saw in july and really spreading across Cooperation on critical technology supply chain resilience export controls other areas which are so central Now to the economic competition with china but also in responses to systemic challenges like the pandemic um And into that basket that just at two other things, you know, uh, the new japanese economic security promotion act and The appointment of a new economic security minister as well again very traditional sort of ways within the japan's political system to signal the elevation Of certain policy agendas. Okay on that On that note, i'm just going to stop so that um, we can take this discussion forward a bit more. Thank you very much Thank you so much evan. Um, and again, I think some really important points that connect us with with both what satashita was saying But also I think allow us to pivot nisly now to soya sensei again on via our zoom connection Professor soya, of course One of the key leader the the systemic effects of its security choices was of course Former prime minister abe shinzo you've written and thought a lot about his legacy For japan's foreign and security policy choices For this current government and I wonder if you perhaps might like to speak about that and and what the current kishida government Is grappling with um in the wake of of prime minister abe's death Yep. Thank you. Thank you. Amy. Uh, can you help me? All right? okay Well, I'd like to thank the i mean new japan update project team for inviting me Unfortunately, I couldn't make it to cambra But thanks to technology I'm speaking from my humble residence in i chi japan and It's still very warm outside well, uh as Amy Suggested my my topics will be mostly on where And how the current kishida government stands Against the backdrops of of course the legacy of former prime minister abe and domestically, I think the biggest legacy Require mr abe is a division or divided politics and society in japan and in this division The so-called the atmosphere of conservative You know politics and arguments Seems to be a little dominant And having said that prime minister kishida himself You know has proclaimed from time to time that as the leader of the dovish faction of ldp kochikai You know, uh, his disposition in foreign policy Is essentially liberal So here there is some tension So kishida, I mean between his personal disposition And the domestic political environment in which he has to You know navigate and in fact The path he has to navigate is very narrow And I think that's how some some of the You know issues coming from the current government may look somewhat complex to say the least And the contradictory from time to time And uh one concrete example would be This you know somewhat Central issue which is now being debated in japan that is The the increase of the defense budget to two percent of gmp And in the process of You know formulating the So basic policy on economic and fiscal management 2022 Which was adopted by the cabinet in june this year Prime minister He was alive still at the time gave pressure to kishida to Sort of include this commitment to two percent of gmp in the document And but kishida resists that the government will Fundamentally reinforce japan's defense capabilities within five years And this time frame of five years is a compromise of assault by kishida For his rejection rejection of two percent and the so-called new men numerical target and So one thing is that kishida's sort of heart is not really in this sort of traditional build-up of defense If I may but of course He knows the circumstances and he knows that he has to do something I mean in terms of building up japan's defense so Some some are somewhat not not very clear picture here, but I think that How jishida is engaging himself In a sort of very difficult process of Dealing with security and defense needs and of course the very strict budget constraints And having said that You know foreign policy or for that matter a national strategy is bound to be a comprehensive one I mean talking about one dimension of this of this and saying that this is japan's strategy Is not entirely correct And in this comprehensive strategy, of course, you know, military deterrence Mostly against china is very important And us japan alliance, I think there is no other sort of foundation upon which to you know rely For japan to have sort of comprehensive military strategy under the current circumstances not to mention a possible taiwan contingency and So so you know japan's self efforts In the domain of you know defense and security Also needs to be justified and rationalized under the overall context of the alliance with the united states and somewhat Less, you know con con conventional sort of forms of security cooperation with Other so-called like-minded countries in the indopacific as well as in europe And I think this is of course an important area, but Having said that, I think ishila is more inclined to emphasize prioritized Multilateral diplomatic efforts in both. I mean both globally and regionally And globally of course his position is to work with the g g7 in the aftermath of the russian invasion of ukraine and And under this sort of g7 framework and working with also nato countries One critical development which happened this year was the participation of the so-called asia pacific four I mean japan, australia and and the new zealand and south korea and asia pacific four attended the you know session uh partner session of the nato summit and One very important development to me was the fact that kishida Volunteer to host a meeting among these four leaders prior to Moving to the partner session of nato and so so this this this sort of formula. I mean i'm I have the temptation to say this is a middle power corporation But anyway, uh, you know this this ap4 sort of framework is a very important new development And this could be an indirect way of working with You know south korea on the part of japan, you know under the new sort of multilateral imperatives and And the regionally of course in the pacific diplomacy is a very important concept And but here, I mean in the pacific diplomacy is is now has now turned into a multilateral You know gathering or attempt Not necessarily to exclude china or to let alone contain china But to create sort of regional infrastructure on the basis of our own initiatives Our i mean regional countries who are in a way sandwiched between us and china I mean this has been terribly lacking in the past history of originalism in our region I mean regional countries Talking together joining efforts together working together to create a regional infrastructure of a sort You know out of our own initiatives And so you know this kind of formula without us and china would be very important I think I think that's that's that's ap ap4 in a way And if china is in it's going to be a game of a certain kind if us is in of course, it's going to be a different game So so to to to conceptualize some sort of regional endeavors And and efforts By our own kind of you know regional countries I think is what has been terribly lacking and This if we conceptualize this properly and if government jumps at it I am afraid there isn't much hope But anyway, you know for this kind of discussion I mean talking about the possibility potentials of those frameworks I think it would be would be very important And japan is a member of so many regional institutions and the frameworks of cooperation Maybe almost all So japan is in a position to you know, sort of think of harmonizing You know these different different types of you know, multilateral regimes in the region Just just without attending each one on the basis of each merits But to begin to think of you know, sort of harmonizing all of these into certain, you know direction Of sort of region formation This is just a hypothetical and a very pure mature thinking But I mean the debates I think are equally important To to the debate about you know, national security national defense Where japanese attention is almost single-handedly sort of You know given and So our arguments about national strategy should be more balanced in my view. So so I'll I'll stop here Yeah, thank you. So as I said before I do that. However, I'd like to very much now draw back to our Speakers here in camber and protect particularly to professor Current choices that japan is currently confronting because it does go to the heart of some of these questions around the alliance and Thank you Amy and thank you organizers for bringing me here It's really nice to be back in camber and as as a high school girl finishing the HSC in New South Wales I was sitting in this car. I had just got my driver's license And I heard on the radio the depth of the prime minister hit up. So now you know how old So um this well, we've talked a lot about um comprehensive security But I think I'll focus in the next five minutes on the heart security Is uh, this is kind of a sequel to the piece I wrote In global asia from east asia foundation and nuclear weapons nuclear deterrence and nuclear power Really two sides of a same coin And I've written about nuclear power on this piece and the piece on to the start of the krain war 24th of february this year and The really surprising thing about the reaction in japan was a very emotional and quick reaction and very thorough identification with the west Which was quite different from what happened in 2014 after the kremian crisis At the time we had prime minister abed was a peace treaty with russia ending the second world war And maybe a new constitution or constitutional change after that So that was a real change of tone from um abe legacy Arrangeated himself from abe legacy. He was very popular and whenever he was kind of Getting back into the shadow. He got less popular So it's a really um interesting thing to think about japanese opinion being affected by the krain and war I mean it was going on for several years and we were kind of half expecting the national security strategy debate to begin The the mood in japan has really changed Just by seeing all the bombings that's happening in in key f and all the other places and how It can really and that's also something new that we are really sort of committed to the to what's going on in in europe which felt like You know, the other thing is that people were worried They had fear that maybe this is What's going to happen here in japan in asia Next, we don't know when but next so that started um a new kind of a round of debate about Defense and deterrence and so here came in the late shins of abe Bearing for the last 10 years. This was nato nucleation because my especially was German security So this arrangement came about And so part of the conservative party jumped to the idea The sir ken jimbo and me who went to the lgp Headquarter to explain what this was all about And where our priority haven't quite reached there yet, but I think As sahaj san said we are going to increase our defense budget in the new future And the other thing is that the longest range Capabilities the longer range strike capabilities It has several names like enemy Some of you may and may not be familiar with these jargons China has about 1000 middle and longer range missiles that can rain on japanese islands That's a fact we of the so-called INF treaty that was valid until very recently and they very Beautifully kept to that treaty. This was a treaty between survey union and america. China had no place in it So china was not bound by this treaty and so in the last 20 years They have diligently built up these strike capabilities Most of them are said to be dual capable Meaning they can carry conventional as well as nuclear warheads. We don't really know when they are going to put nuclear warheads on these So the question has been Recently, what do we do about it? And what do the americans do about it?  And we don't know what russian capabilities would What role this would play in the debate but for us it's really about The chinese capabilities debate can go to different directions It's not about us trying to invade china or anything like that when we develop the capabilities that can reach 500 and 1000 meters There are talks about japan eventually acquiring up to Middle-range capabilities missiles That will be land-based probably because that's easiest to develop Which Would have the range of something between 500 and 1000. We don't know how many of which Ones we will get We don't have them yet into this area There has also been talks about bringing in american land-based ones But I don't really believe that will happen if they're going to believe in bringing middle-range Tri-capabilities, it will probably be sea-based as far as I know So this has been about how do we Rebalance and reconstitute we never really talked about what it concretely was. We just believed in it So now We are really seeing the real possibility of wars We want to deter the war, all right We don't want to want it to be become real wars. What we want is deterrence And for that to happen, we need to look what happens if you're not capable of defending yourself Right and they had to get all the strike abilities from most of them from america And we don't want to be in that situation and that is really the center of the national security strategy this year So how that is going to play out in detail still needs to be Discussed and I'm sure the to Get everything in time before the end of the year, which is supposed to be the deadline I don't know how much we will see by the end of december But I think there is a consensus Emerging slowly. I mean if you read the government report it puts both sides, you know pros and cons But I think there's a slow Consensus emerging that we do need longer strike capabilities and but that's really a step one and just having the Missiles and there will be probably cruise missiles have the command capabilities and so on so that brings in How do we coordinate with the us and other? Partners and allies so I will Stop here shortly But what I've been saying is that all this debate about nuclear sharing It shows that we haven't really talked about these things between the allies. So we need better communication We need better strategic planning. We need to show understand what do we have in each other's pocket and Put them on the table. So that needs to happen between us and japan It also probably needs to happen. But that I really welcome was the late NATO madrid summit where a asia-pacific fall together with NATO partners were sitting there I hope this will be institutionalized and regular. It makes it easier for us to Talk to the south koreans and south koreans to us We have communication problems. We know that and we have to learn to better communicate with each other This is only part of the solution We are kind of shrinking proportion of the world. And so we need to better Extend into the other parts of the world including larger parts of asia and africa And but I will leave that to later debate. Thank you so much Really important remarks there on the on the hard security side of things as you say and also what that means for Not only the alliance, but these potentially new mechanisms Sort of the alliance plus if you if you like To our audience members you get those ready Before we do though and to give you a moment to to to you know to get those questions ready I'd like to just turn briefly back to sahajisum Because I think a lot of what you set out at the beginning has been picked up in different ways by our different panelists And I just be interested in some immediate reflections You know you made that remarkable point at the beginning that that the japan has recognized that the us is not so helpful In the regional order building mechanisms and that they are increasingly exclusive japan security choices For the region not only for japan, but for the wider region And and that japan is a member of just about every regional Order building framework that there is Professor iwama has spoken about the way in which japan is perhaps Doubling down is too strong a word on the on the alliance side of things But certainly working to enhance the alliance Remain a bit of a vain hope for you Do you do you see of japan as having capacity to actually you know Put some life into the the inclusive order building arrangements and work with new partners for example in in doing that Yeah, I think Japan government has to have to work more And they have to reduce their sleeping time But I think They still I mean we can we can expect Japan's diplomacy I think it's a great work for more inclusive vision Because you know like like look at tpp You know japan was a secretariat role player secretariat role to make it transform it into cp tpp And to survive them after trump withdraw from tpp and arsep Arsep is a framework with asian and other eight countries Sorry six countries to have Legion-wide mechanism even though that is more low profile than tpp But you know japan also played a really important role in arsep And you know like other in even in other like a digital trade area like japan promoted the idea of dhft digital digital free flow of Free flow of data with trust You know, this is also very important concept. Japan's government started to promote From about five years ago So I think uh, uh, japan still have a real big potential possibility To promote the materialism and also Uh, I really agree with the point yamasan days about the traditional security But uh, japan also could play more role for even economic security Right. I mean japanese government will uh, Rebaste the odhata. I mean did the budget for uh, japan's oda So I think that that could be also another very important Yeah, it is not full full set of inclusive inclusive mechanism because they may Want to hedge against the china uh in supply chain management, but still, you know, uh, that could Include more asian nations and other, you know, important players into the framework of economic security.  Maybe better than united states. Yeah, thank you. Thank you Well to our audience, um, it's now your turn. So I'd like to hear from you. Yes at the back for us at our I believe a microphone is coming Uh bill, can you hear me? Yeah, uh bill tau America's professor at the department of international relations. I wanted to come relating presentations across the board Two quick inquiries One to evaline Meticulous and elegant analysis is always evaline But I'm wondering if perhaps Um, one might look at the us situation particularly the domestic situation relative to the systemic Factors, which you were The americans and this has historically been the case and the one area of bipartisanship In the united states right now is China, uh, there really is very little difference between the democrats and the republicans over china And this has been reflected in officially u.s. Doctrinal Statements where I think your analysis is particularly poignant is whether that can spill over Into a more coherent last speaker on extended deterrence couldn't agree with you more that there hasn't been enough systemic thinking about it but um, I'm wondering if In your work You might take into account some of the technology Developments that could change the face of extended deterrence calculations in the first place And on an unclassified basis you can look at the work of brad roberts and others Who are essentially? arguing that Not just the the notion of warfare. How does that factor into? Japanese decision-making in terms of Which technologies are going to invest in most? Over the next 10 or 20 years. Thank you. Thank you bill evaline. I'm not sure if you heard that question. Did you? Yes, you did. Okay, we might come to that that I think is a is a reasonable way to look at it I wouldn't disagree with you. I suppose the salient point for me is that from Many different points of view in the region and then I believe this includes all except a small fraction of opinion in tokyo that precisely that Domestic consensus within the u.s about china being the new paramount threat Is not helpful to regional stability Or the urgent task of negotiating a new sort of order in the region Which after all Is unlike the united states compelled to continue living with china So it is precisely that domestic consensus about a china threat that is holding distance strategic distance Thank you evaline. Um iwama sensei Yes, we're just a comment to that. Um, I mean soya sensei and I were very very reluctant to admit the china threat From seen from us. It was like china drifted away From a very good relationship that we had in the 80s and 90s I mean I spent a summer in 1982 in shanghai and those in those days. It was a high day of Japan China friendship and It was really nice staying there and nowadays You really think twice and thrice before going to china at all. Um, but back to Builds a question and thank you. I was uh at Hadley bull Institute 2011 and thank you for any for earlier hostability hospitality extended deterrence. Yes Ukraine war It's almost gone back to the first world war, right? Well, it's happening at the same time on the ground. You see first world war in the trenches and up in the air you see all these um satellite images and s and s and information But how much in which needs to be still We have to debate about it There were impressions Before I think the crime more that now we're moving to this digital age. We don't really need these hard the bombing Sure creators and so on but I think Ukraine has shown that war Is very basic form still exists and that we need to take care of that the other thing about deterrence is that it is These were always about balance and numbers That were in your perception You couldn't really feel these things. You never fought, you know, you never threw the bombs against each other This is really very much about perceptions and numbers and Balance on the paper and it still remains very much so So we need to take that into account How much But we also need to learn to think but then how to balance in the end Needs to be decided in our heart That is, you know deterrence is about how do you feel about this rate? That's the most difficult thing about it You can't you know sport you can fight out Wars you cannot fight out. It's on the paper and it's your head. So How the narrative develops Would very much decide on the room, but I believe you have some questions perhaps from the live feed even We've got a mic coming down Yes, so we have some questions from Online questions first one. How do you see Pelosi's visit to taiwan and its effects on japan's position Following japan's multi-billion dollar aid package to africa There's been discourse throughout the west that this represents an effort to counter china's influence. Is this too simplistic? And a third question. How does energy security fit into japan's current economic security agenda? Thanks, right a good a good mix of questions there. So what I might do is um, perhaps How do you say on this taiwan taiwan you'd like to speak to that and perhaps then I might come to I'm a sensei. Would you perhaps counter on the energy security? Question or maybe you'd like to there was one also about the aid package to africa Would you like to try that one? Okay, and so yes and say I might come to you then on the energy security question perhaps Uh speaker percy Visit to taiwan was uh broadcasted I I appeared on many tv and the newspaper To say clearly opposed against that visit so and Some of interview Actually without any paywall Had a very interesting Subtitle and hit hit line. And so I was attacked by many, you know, net people netizen You know because I'm too soft on you know china and you know, I must visit to taiwan is that is unnecessary right because I mean like uh As some some some of colleagues in this panel already mentioned We have worked with united states and other countries to hitch against taiwan contingency You know last a few years. We have developed a lot But we still need more time need more resource right? We are we are developing the situation In towards a better, you know direction. So everything is still in the process But why now we need that factor that surprising factor nancy plus visit and destabilize the region and also a china got the excuse To increase the level of training along the taiwan straight and now medium line between In the taiwan straight is almost ineffective. So I think that that visit, you know, we expected even before the visit It could Give the excuse for china side to do everything And that that doesn't but of course, you know, it happened already So what we have to do now is to do what we have originally planned You know with united states with australia and with any other, you know countries To prevent and deter and also, you know prepare for Prepare for the worst-case scenario over taiwan straight classes. So we never changed But uh, in from that perspective it was unnecessary. Thank you Uh, it was and say on the question on countering china in africa. Is that over simplistic as a narrative? I think so. Um I've been answering such questions for for a decade. I think already. Um, it's been in the air Okay There's a rivalry of a sort but As I said, uh for her to create we don't necessarily need to match every bomb for bomb And we don't really necessarily match every dollar for a dollar or one for in whatever Um, I think uh, our strategy now is to do it, uh, put more emphasis in inequality So emphasizing rule of law and capacity building and not necessarily building rows and highways We we we also need to do that as well, but uh more, um, I'm emphasizing, um, local efforts and Uh Growing their their own capacity rather than you'll be giving them money and made ready made things so I think, um, and then it's not really about um Competition with china I think it's really more about the quality of life there in africa And how to make it better because this will definitely be the fastest growing region in the world in the very new future And it is for our own interests that they have a a better quality of life. Yeah, thank you Um, professor sire. I'm not sure if you can see me currently We can't see you the wonders of technology via the laptop, but um, I'm turning around and hope with the hope that you might see me Um, shira, I might ask if you could just repeat that question about the energy security If you've got it in front of you Is Is energy security part of economic security? I think was the essence of the question So to me, right? I was expecting this question to me, but anyway, uh Yeah, energy security is becoming important element in economic security. I'm sure. Yeah, no question about it And but the traditionally, I mean, there are 2.5 components of you know, the energy strategy It's just a general speaking. That is the diversification of energy resources And the diversification of suppliers And also multinational efforts to control price energy prices. And I think the three Still continue to be very important, but of course under the current, you know, you know, Ukraine sort of Situation and And there is no easy way out and uh Maybe a sort of temptation Is to go back to nuclear power And uh, and the kishida Prime minister kishi expressed, you know, some some some of his thinking about this and how don't I don't know how it's gonna unfold in domestic politics in japan But that's one thing which is not happening and the other international dimension which appears to become important In the years ahead is the the role of the so-called the global south I mean a group of developing countries and In in this, you know international Effort to jointly cope with, you know, russian invasion of ukraine There are many countries as is being discussed often There are many countries who do not take size right between sort of advanced democracies represented by g7 on the one hand and russia on the other and So these countries, which are often these days, you know Called as sort of global south Many of them are resource rich countries And so diplomacy with them under the current post ukraine or ongoing ukraine situations I think is going to have some some some implications not only for this management of, you know, so-called free and open liberal international system But indeed in with the hard realities regarding kind of energy, uh, you know necessities And I don't know if the government our government is beginning to think in those terms, but In joining g7. Oh, sorry G20 and other, you know for Where these developing countries have have have a critical role. I think is going to be Important from this point of view in coming years. Yeah Thank you very much question here Hello, um, my name is akiko tsunami Um, I'm the one who was asked to cut sleep. Yes I am from minister of Governorship, I mean I work for the embassy So I think I was the one who was asked to work more and to go sleep. But anyway, so So that's not meant as a retaliation, but but this is actually a comment and or Comment question to To saras sensei um So, um, there's two things. Uh, one is about narrative one is about like overall Direction of architecture Approach to architecture. So on the narrative side, um I think you mentioned like everything like all the difficulties started with US china rivalry Like it was china rivalry Of course, uh, in other narratives, that's we're very familiar with in I think anyway in the world So in Australia is that well, actually, uh, it's not for example, uh, prime minister Often says it's not austria that's changed It's china that's changed Or somebody some people say it's china that began to reveal its intentions And then that kind of happened. Maybe well, um came became a clearer so about 10 years ago. So, um, So rather than Rather than presenting that actually the difficulties about like to I don't know. Godzilla versus I don't know king kong to to uh, to to enormous creatures fighting It's not it may be, um appropriate to think about it as actually it's It's the change of china or revealing of the china as iwanasen say Say recording actually the time when When you had what it was very positive possible to have kind of cooperative Much much easier to have a cooperative approach with china. There was a time when the us Robert zellig was saying talking about responsible stakeholder Uh, those days were like 20 years ago something like that, but then What changed is it rivalry between to the china u.s rivalry or is it Something changed with china something's revealed. So that's my first question. The second question Is actually related to that, but it's I think you mentioned. Yep The best way is to have like a talk Uh us out china in Are we really sure about that? So that's my question Especially when when we're thinking about what have been doing for example australia in japan You know australia has been I mean it's still for example fighting Well struggling against the economic coercion from china It's in the double to Well industries are still really suffering from that Uh Japan had this original version of that back in 2010 When rare earth supply was cut and then we we brought that case to wtu and then it was real illegal and So In a way, so we were having trying to australia japan and other countries have been trying to To fight the trend of Of maybe a possible alternative world where weaponization of economic cloud is okay We don't want that we want to say that economic Weaponization of economic cloud is not okay South china see the nine dash lines, etc And then what we're trying to do was that well Well, if a tribunal says something You should obey you should you should abide by the the judging the tribunal international tribunal We don't want a well when power says well some of my ancestors so that so that Well island back in history it's in literature Thereby, that's my land. I mean we don't want that kind of Of rule to be the ruling world So we've been trying to do that. So in a way what I was doing that We have been trying to defend The rules based order as have known it And then trying to push against the The state of school challenge um And then when we're thinking about that and then when we think about The economic the economic version of the nine dash lines or what's happening around senka carland you know Uh, are we really sure about when we're talking about? Like architecture. I would really sure about China in US out as a primary one There is a there is a form like that. I mean our step is like that. It's it's really about Expanding rules and standards to Countries like including laws. I mean, there's a gstem countries like japan g20 countries like australia China and then landlock countries With very low income like like I might just interrupt it to so we have time to Sorry, sorry So two questions about capturing So yes, so um, so first about are we sure about? Uh, us china rivalry Uh, secondly, uh, about are we sure about well, it's related architecture Without us In china, uh, uh, are we really sure about it? Thank you So actually, I think probably the questions were most being directed at you. So perhaps Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, and also maybe even also maybe you want to respond We can share some responsibility But anyway, uh, thank thank you very much for that for these comments and questions and actually your first point was really interesting Yeah, I mean, I think everyone here really knows the problem of china, right? And we have realized, uh, the china has not taken the path we imagined originally And it happened the last 10 years Right, so but the real challenge for us to see international reaction is You know, even though china has changed the last 10 years or maybe over 20 years Right, but the united states kept its engagement policy until Around at least 2015, but maybe trump administration really destroys the you know as the engagement policy so analytically I think for me more important thing is the change of the relationship itself and this change of relationship is Not only caused by change of chinese domestic politics, but also From the u.s Change of engagement policy toward more competitive stance So this is very analytical position. So I never have intention To you know to be with, you know, chinese stance on, you know, liberalism or any other things So but analytically, this is very important. So thank you very much for Making that point and the second thing is I think I really agree with you. I mean, it is very difficult with that us and with china Can we really make a new rules our step is not something, you know Something what we really can see. I mean Our step can go more but our step is really insufficient In terms of rulemaking So I think that to really to aim to Better more inclusive or more high level rulemaking We really need Some new idea, but if we have china And you know, we may have some natural limitation But even with united states the situation might not be, you know changed. This is a problem. We have now So what we do I have to do is I think to make some other core group You know You know, not china, not united states, but some dear important core group who d r e w lose set lose setting rulemaking And to promote more liberalism in, you know, new discussion over trade digital trade and other things. So Evelyn was there anything you wanted to to remark on Following that comment and question Maybe just a very short response to the first question of what what has changed because I think that's actually the most important question and that our answer to that question will you know, determine the rest of the analysis and I think that any simple answer that that places You know, the the the oneness of expectation and change on a single party In the current changing landscape will be inadequate It's very obvious that china has changed And but it's also equally obvious that on the outset of say 1979 To 1989 we expected china to change right Fundamentally we expected all along that china would get more powerful So at least equally Equal weight needs to be put on How much others have failed to change? right And in this regard, of course, I've always said this the united states has failed to imagine itself into a world that isn't determined by u.s. Germany And that that failure alone is the thing the important thing that didn't change That equally explains why we're in this situation today Right, so I'd encourage thinking about what changed but also what failed to change And how together those two dynamics have created what we've got all got to deal with today Not the least japan, which is in an incredibly difficult position In in in that sort of disjuncture if you like i'll stop there I'm going to take now a handful of questions So that we have time to gather as many as possible for the end So I'll do what I can and then we'll give our panelists a couple of minutes each to finalize so Let's start logistically is start at the back and we'll work our way through okay Thank you so much I'm new here in a new as a next-gen student and I'm starting a lot about Australian security and conception or perception in the region so for the good relationship for a good alliance between us So between australia and japan What will be the is there any possible barrier or is there any possible difference between perception for the region Yes, and because for you for us japan alliance We have we have good alliance, but still we have the different goal or different perception So on us and south korea. We have the difference in our Goal or in our perception So what will be so what will be in the case of australia and japan International relationships. So it is my question. Thank you. So We'll come down. We might take a question from the middle section here Just over here if that's possible, please You know the research school of economics So I want to want to ask a very controversial question But I want to start off with that The chinese growth has had a positive impact obviously on the global economy But that was accompanied by military expansion and hence aggression of chinese Especially around the southeast China sea southeast china sea I think So was it the question then is was it a mistake for the us and the west to let china grow and invest heavily in china But the question then is also like should we continue to invest in these socialist and communist Countries that are like china and that could potentially be next china For the west if you don't then chinese are heavily investing in africa And we know those some of these countries are communist or socialist at least so Was it a correct and what should the west do in the future? Thank you. Come to a question here Thank you Didn't realize we had two mics Thanks, my name is izzy. I'm a student here, but I also work for the australian department of home affairs So my question is um Uh evlyn talked about um japan being at the economic security nexus How can japan be successful in influencing others with its domestic economic security laws? particularly countries In azi and the pacific where they have different strategic views Conceptions of threats and different contexts Thank you Okay, one question here. I'm afraid we were not going to be able to take them more We'll take this one question here and then peter peter. You have the final word I don't dare not let you ask Hi there, um, my name is true crystal. I'm with the department of foreign affairs and trade I wanted to ask a question about india And I just wanted to ask if india is from a regional security perspective might be a bit of an achilles heel To us our security groupings noting that obviously they're in the quad But in terms of trade trade often promotes greater security And india often seems quite resistant to liberalizing their their trading relationships, but they also straddle that fence between Still trading with russia Even though sanctions are happening and having to balance that line But also being part of the quad partaking in the the current Games with russia at the moment, um the vostok games So just wanted um whether or not you thought there was more that japan or australia can do through the quad Or whether they might have to come through another avenue that might strengthen that kind of security Thank you and peter Thanks for an incredibly crisp and clear-headed discussion Which has clearly been premised on the acknowledgement that things have changed rather dramatically all sides round So I think that's been the start. This is of course japan is in a very difficult and complicated strategic position in circumstance Uh And what's japan's choice in this circumstance? I want to press the panel a bit on that as I hear you and this is why I want to press you There have been two responses at wama's response, which is to To move more tightly into the slip see forwards one framework, although it Comprehends a fairly small part of japan's external world, frankly and uh What is what other options? What other frameworks are there for thinking about and that's the observation that casting this problem entirely in terms of Japan china strategic competition Although that's central to it Is clearly only part of the story. I mean this is this is a third of the world less than a third of the world now The g7's just over a third of the world The rest of the world's 70 percent of the world that has been alluded to as an important part of the conversation that has to be had Strategically, uh, so, you know, how can japan develop an alternative? A strategic response to the circumstances it faces taking account of Not only that part of the world with which it's closely aligned But the world within which it's closely interdependent including The world in east Asia beyond china And and the south and other parts of the world with which it's deeply engaged Thank you, um, there's been a lot of a lot put on the table here I'm going to give each of our panelists about one minute. I'm afraid no more To answer any of those questions that they might wish to Obviously, we can't get to everything but um iwama sensei I might start with you And then we'll come to our zumba panelist and then finish in reverse order with with sahashi sensei Yeah, um big questions Okay, um, I've been thinking about what we did in the past, you know And the kissinger choice that we made was it a mistake? Um And you know i've been asking lots of people. Do you think it was a mistake many americans and uh um Probably no, um, I think it was a right mistake Well, you could have done it a little bit more nicely to the taiwanese I think But all in all, I don't think it was a mistake that we invested in china's future And and brought so many chinese out of poverty. I think that was a right miss, uh, right decision. Um, we Made several strategic choices. I think the first was 1972 But I think we should have thought a little bit more better after 1989 probably um Yeah, after that we were really into, um, believing and Making us us believe that china would be Something like us Bigger and prosperous and happy It has turned out differently. Well, what do we do in the future? Um That values and what we want and what sort of word we want to live in Um And so I think most of the japanese want to live in this liberal world with Rule of law, right? And so that's what we're going to invest in Um, and how we do that as uh, Peter said g7 is really a shrinking share of the world So we need to reach out to the larger world the global south Including larger parts of asia and africa um As so, you know today I talked to the really the the small core of the hard security, but that obviously that's not enough we need to um Engage with the other parts of the world using our economic development and our energy climate politics um, and hopefully And that comes bring us that aspect of the question in africa because that will be the fastest growing population center of the world and it is in an interest that uh, that part is not just feeding itself, but is also Growing in a way that Values what we've been. Thank you. Right. Thank you. Uh, professor soya Just a minute from you if I may Yes, okay Rather than responding to specific question, let me say a few very general things One is, uh, there was a mention of contradiction between chinese economic Contribution and the kind of military, you know power dimension chinese chinese role and I think uh, You know international politics is full of contradiction. I mean it has dimension of power It has dimension of interest and it has dimension of uh, uh, value And each each one of these contradict each other in many cases and obvious cases with china and I think we have to take it I mean we have to face this contradiction rather than move away from one dimension to to the other And I think that's that's exactly why our approach should be comprehensive. Uh, as I said in my initial remark And as to china my sense is china is in a way an organizing principle You know for everybody in the region And but the nature of china chinese sort of expansion of whatever aggressiveness of whatever has to do with The return of something which is reminiscent of seno-centrism. I would think you know Some of the imperialistic impulse Is coming back and we are dealing with such china and uh, and in order to do this I mean regional countries have to get together. Uh, you know and Join force. I think that that is very very obvious And one concrete thing is to deter the outbreak of taiwan contingency, you know And this I do not mean this by deterring chinese military aggression by us and others But deterring the outbreak of the taiwan contingency is is more comprehensive You know us has a role role in it And uh, so we have to begin to think, you know, chinese challenge from this very overall Historic context otherwise we'll be misguided by our own judgments and and and choices And so, okay, I'll stop here. Yeah Um, evelyn go can I come to you for a final last remark, please? Yes, um, I agree with everything that sire sensei has just said Um, would would would be a quick response. Um, but perhaps just Is there a problem with the sound hello and still hear you can you hear us? Okay, we might come to you Evelyn, can you Yes a word about the china choice And a word about japan's choices Can you hear me And me please say yes We can hear you. Yes Okay, wonderful. Um I I found the question about That assumed that that we there was choice about how the world bought into china's economic opening From the late 1970s to be intriguing Um, and it it seems to elide entirely the capitalist paradox We do recall right that that the chinese economy and china's development is what has entirely saved the world From the crises of western capitalism And we would not have ridden out the global financial crisis the way we wrote out of it without china and the chinese economy Um, so there was no choice and there is no choice Going forward I'm on peter's question about japan's choices Um, I think it's it's very straight, you know, that the framework to think about this is that japan's now got to operate In a regional and an international order that is no longer That's simple one that that relied entirely upon a single pillar Of the u.s alliance and u.s her germany Underpinning an entire order and that challenge is the same for everybody else in the region um, and if we're borrowed from the german exam A german analogy I think what the realm of japan's choices going forward is one in which japan has to transform itself From a vegetarian Into a meat eater but remember the German foreign minister and his famous remarks about in the world of meat eaters vegetarians have a really hard time And I think japan's challenge is quite similar to the german one. It will entail Having to take on and to and to pay out For quite a lot more in the hard security realm Um, but it will also entail having to continue to do the range of comprehensive security Types of approaches that so since then and others have talked about So in other words, you know the walking and chewing gum Challenge for japan is going to be very acute In in the years to come. I'll stop there. Thanks. Thank you so much And the last last word goes to you Thank you very much and thank you very much for many questions comments from the floor Just just very briefly responding to this question. And first of all One student asked about what is where there is any Barriers between, you know, our two nations australia and japan to to further expand our relationship I think traditionally we have a problem. We have different understanding on strategy sometimes because I think uh, you know We have different proximity To geo geostrategic spots like taiwan straight and korean peninsula But I think now, you know, we start to get closer In australian thinking if I am not mistaken That that position is not like just a simple follow-up to u.s. Segemony, right? We are more complex complicated But even even with that, I think we have very we have much in common Between camber and tokyo. So I think now we are getting over that proximity problem But and the second question is about, you know, could should we Invest more to non-democratic country, which could be next china This is excellent question and actually, you know Personally, I want to say no I'm very strong believer of liberalism. I want to say no, but strategically different answer We have to right. This is the kind of dilemma we had during the cold war Right and the key one was a very good example should be better now Right, should we do should we keep our relationship with better now or not? This will be more and more important problem for us Personally, I want to say no, but the strategic as a strategic thinker. I have to say yes so this is very difficult Vicar choice and how about India? India is another very in a behavior like to Moscow Is or even to Beijing is is interesting so so But I think We shouldn't imagine the future with that approach to India This is very important fact because India has future in terms of technology and science Right, we shouldn't ignore that and secondly Strategically India is very important because India-China relationship has really big stumbling blocks So we should use it for our own strategic sake So I think you know, I want to add advice to Japanese government and any other government We have to keep our engagement to India and and also could we really Deepen our economic security cooperation with like ASEAN and global south and others. I think yeah I think we should do that even though they may not Do the same export control and investment control with like us But you know, we can give them opportunity like supply chain management Or you know, hi tech corporation, you know, it could be the opportunity so we can make some deal with them and Sorry, just just one one line to my to my Dispected professor professor Peter Dwight there. So I think what we really have to make Is not that choice now I mean apparent choice because if we say or we cut off the relationship with China it it is really big burden On society. I mean what we really need we should be tougher to China But we we shouldn't take that choice radically. So this is the final thing I want to share Well, thank you so much. We've heard an enormous amount Today about the change that Japan is currently negotiating in the region Please thank you. Thank you. Join me in thanking our panelists Thank you to our panelists in particular for for braving the technological challenge into our tech support for for heroically Persevering and I believe now. I'm to hand over to The organizers for a final No, thanks Okay, it's been a huge day and It's hard to believe it's it's already over. We've been preparing for this for a long time In the pre covid era, we used to have an in-person update Japan update every year and it was an audience of roughly this size And then when the pandemic first hit our immediate Sort of instinct was just cancel it Because we're in lockdown But we made the the big I guess decision to to switch online to zoom at a time when we we really weren't that familiar with zoom It was extremely challenging And the benefit of doing that was we realized we can reach a much bigger audience and we had a lot of people tune in So we made the determination that we were going to try to keep that online audience and and get back to the In-person audience and have a hybrid seminar and we prepared for that last year But of course we went into lockdown right before the the japan update and really disappointed to have to switch Back to the online format, so it's it's wonderful to know that this year we've managed to pull off A hybrid seminar. It hasn't been easy and it's required a a phenomenal support team I'd like to just note. We're probably not including everyone here, but maddie mcdonald jet aplan Moto Haru Kinoshita Hamish Brooks emily furser and Really grateful to tess harwood Who's you probably all have heard from? She's played a phenomenal role working around the clock weekends Her organizational efforts even had a picking flowers in the middle of the night last night in the cold Just so things would look pretty out there She's amazing um, it also requires a Huge part on Even the moderators behalf as you notice. Amy is having to do with panelists behind her Taking questions from the in-person audience the online audience and it's We've all had to really level up to make this happen But we're extremely grateful to our presenters. They've done an amazing job Many of them are the best in their field and it was so heartening when they actually touched down Well, not all of them could make it here, but many of them touched down in Canberra And again, we've had to negotiate the border policies of both countries and as well as all the usual airfare and logistical Arrangements So it's I think we'll never take for granted again that we can invite people from Japan and have them here as as part of the conference been fantastic and I'd now like to hand over to Co-organizer one of the co-organizers Um, professor if you are who we're also very grateful to Yeah, I think I there's anything I can add but let me let me do that a little bit concluding remarks Uh, this is the tense event. So I started the the first up Japan update with Veronica Taylor nine years ago But as you can imagine to start the first event is easy, you know, because it's first to get the funding easy And it's just excited but You know, it's really what is difficult to continue the event with high quality And the shiro Armstrong here has been the engine Of of this event. I hope you agree to that. Yes. I was waiting for you to thank shiro. That was your job Yeah, we have an agreement. That's good Success of this year's event and in the past is mainly thanks to shiro's continuous effort so that Please join me thanking shiro for his continuous effort Wish wish him the success of the update for the next 10 or 20 or 30 events And uh Last but not least and I thank you very much for the Active participation and I great to have a lots of participants here And uh, fantastic discussion. Are we really happy to have such kind of event as of today and uh So that this is the last thing. See you next year. Thank you very much for coming