Kind of like me right now, the world is not immediately apparent to us. We can't just simply look at the world and know everything there is to know about it and everything else. If we're going to know anything about the things around us, ourselves and each other, we have to start with what we already know and make a next step to draw a conclusion. Whenever we draw a conclusion, when we take the evidence around us and we draw a conclusion from that evidence, it's called an inference. Logic is the study of inference. And in this course, we're not going to study all there is to know about logic. We simply don't have the time. It would take an unlimited amount of time, literally. In this course, we're going to look at three parts of deductive inference, three parts of deductive logic. We're going to look at terms, propositions and arguments. So remember, we're going to distinguish between terms, propositions and arguments. A term, that's the smallest unit of this, a term is a word that's used for one and only one meaning. A term is a word that's used for one and only one meaning. Now, don't confuse a term for the word itself. Words have many different meanings. But a term, a word, there's a collection of letters or sounds. Tree, apple, sky, these are all words. Terms would be what we mean by tree, apple and sky. So I've said that a term is a word with one and only one meaning, or a word where we use one and only one meaning. Immediately, you might wonder, wait, what the heck, don't words just have one meaning? Well, no, as a matter of fact, words have lots of different meanings. If you look at the dictionary, you're going to find quite a few definitions for any given word. The last time I looked, the word innocent had something like 16 definitions. It's not exaggeration, something like 16 definitions. It's not infrequent, it's not unusual for us to use a word in more than one way, even in the discourse, sometimes we're not even aware of it. We could talk in maybe simple ways or poetic ways, or you could talk about the word blue. The word blue can be used either to describe a color or a person's mood, and sometimes both. Sometimes you use them interchangeably at the same time. It can get a little confusing, it can get a little confusing. So, yeah, a term is a word used with one and only one meaning. Well, next up we have propositions. Propositions are composed of terms. They're not terms, but they're composed of terms. When you put the terms together to create something that's either true or false, that's a proposition. So not just any combination of terms counts. Blue, B Wood, bookshelf unit. Well, that's a combination of terms, and maybe there's a meaning for each of those. But you haven't expressed something that's either true or false. In fact, I've expressed something that's pure nonsense. On the other hand, something like, I am walking on a path. That's a proposition that expresses something true, and it's composed of terms. So, not just any sensible combination of terms creates a proposition. What time is it?  These are both sentences. The first is an interrogative, right? Ask a question. The second is an imperative, right? It gives a command. But neither one expresses something that's either true or false. Somebody said, what time is it? You said, false. That would be weird. You get a reaction of confusion at the very least.  And you said, that's false. Again, especially depending on who's telling you, you get probably maybe not the reaction you're looking for. So, not just any combination, sensible combination of terms expresses a proposition. Propositions are only what is true or false, right? So, there are trees behind me. That's a proposition. That's a sensible combination of terms that expresses something that's true, namely that there are trees behind me. There is an elephant behind me. That is also a proposition, but it's false. It's still a sensible combination of terms that expresses something true or false, and in this case, false. So, yeah, a proposition is composed of terms, and it's what's true or false. So, just as propositions are composed of terms, arguments are composed of propositions. So, terms are words that are used for one and only one meaning. A proposition is a combination of terms that composes something that's true or false. And an argument, well, an argument is something different. That's different from either propositions or terms. This brings us to arguments. So, terms compose propositions, and propositions compose arguments. Now, the way this works is one collection of propositions will infer another proposition. Now, strictly speaking, with deductive inference, there can literally be an infinite number of conclusions, but let's just leave that aside, right? For the sake of discussion, let's just assume for you right now that we're dealing with only one conclusion at a time, right? So, you have one set of propositions inferring another. That's an argument. That's an argument. Not just any collection of propositions will do. It has to be that one set of propositions infers another. Now, arguments are composed of two parts. The premises and the conclusion. The premises are those propositions that infer the conclusion. The conclusion is what's inferred by the premises. The premises, in some sense or another, you know, this is debated, but in some sense or another, make the conclusion true or they justify the conclusion. They either make the conclusion true or they justify the conclusion. That's, in some sense, they make it true, right? And in turn, the conclusion, in some sense, is made true or is justified by the premises. So, the premises infer the conclusion. Now, again, simply for the sake of explanation, because we're not going to go into this in too much detail, broadly speaking, there are two kinds of arguments, right? There are inductive arguments and deductive arguments. Now, inductive arguments are arguments where the premises make the conclusion more likely to be true or more probable, right? And deductive arguments are arguments where the premises, the truth of the premises, necessitates the truth of the conclusion. In other words, with deductive arguments, if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true. With inductive arguments, all the premises can be true and the conclusion falls. Now, I don't want to jump too much into this because it's a long explanation of the history of logic and philosophy. Inductive arguments are not necessarily bad, right? They give us a lot of really great kinds of knowledge. So, for instance, all of scientific inference is based upon inductive reasoning. Moving from evidence to conclusion and scientific inference is inductive, not deductive. Whereas an example of deductive inference that you might be familiar with would be mathematics. Mathematics. So, if you deal with probability, that's inductive. If you deal with necessity, that's deductive. I mean, these are all different ways of describing it. One is not necessarily more accurate than the rest, but hey, it's a start. So, premises and conclusion. These compose arguments. The premises in some sense necessitate or justify or make the conclusion true. The conclusion is in some sense made true or justified by the premises. Well, spotting the difference between inductive arguments and deductive arguments, it's not really important at this point. Probably wanting to get to it really during the course of the semester. Like I said, we're only going to be dealing with deductive arguments. Now, spotting the difference between inductive and deductive arguments, not really important at this point, but spotting the difference between the premises and the conclusion is. You have to be able to identify the difference between the premises and the conclusion if you're ever going to understand any argument, including ones that you hear outside of this course. And I've noticed this that sometimes people are very sloppy with the difference between the premises and conclusion. And they don't really know which to address in discussions. Okay. Now, sometimes, like I said, arguments are collections of propositions, which means, grammatically speaking, that pretty much always going to look like a paragraph, right? Or a series of paragraphs. Now, in these paragraphs, you're going to find, or at least sometimes, you'll find little Q words. And sometimes these Q words are used for the conclusion and sometimes they're used for the premises. It's rare that you're going to have somebody be nice if they always did this, but it's rare that you're going to have somebody who writes a paragraph saying, for all the reasons I've just provided, I conclude this. You know, it doesn't always happen. It'd be nice if it didn't, but it doesn't always happen. Similarly, you know, I believe this, for these reasons, in one, two, and three, right? It makes for very clear writing if you do that. Somebody can never be mistaken, or not never, but it'd be really hard to be mistaken about what somebody is doing if they actually, you know, did that, but it's not always. So we don't always have these nice full sentences that are telling us exactly what's going on.  So for conclusions, you'll find Q words like, therefore, so, thus, in conclusion, in summation, right? Actually, in summation isn't always used. That's probably not a good word, good phrase for conclusions. But, you know, these little Q words, right? So it's gray outside, it's slightly cool, and the barometer is dropping, dropping. The barometer is dropping. For these reasons, right, I conclude it is going to rain. Now, that'd be a nice long, drawn-out way of saying it. Almost never happens. Instead, it's something like, wow, you know, the temperature's dropping, it's cloudy, the barometer's dropping. So it's gonna rain, right? That little so, right? That's your Q word, that that's the conclusion. There are also sometimes Q words for premises, right? Sense for, because, right? So to take that same example, say, it's gonna rain since the barometer's dropping, the temperature's dropping, and it's getting more cloudy. That little Q word, sense, that indicates the premises. For that short little, very bad argument. Now, these Q words, these are gonna be helpful in finding the difference between the premises and the conclusion. And as I said, it is necessary to find the difference between the premises and the conclusion. However, these Q words can't replace your ability to comprehend.  Now, these Q words can be helpful, at the very least it can be helpful in ascertaining the framework of the author's mind. But you should also not let the Q words replace your ability to reason. You have to comprehend what's provided for you in writing better than the author has written it. This is just a sad fact of life. You have to comprehend better than the author who's provided it. Now, like I said, these Q words, sometimes these Q words aren't going to be there, and sometimes they're gonna be there badly. So, you have to comprehend, you have to understand the meanings of the terms to figure out the difference between the premises and the conclusion. So, take a look at this set of propositions. So, as I said, these paragraphs aren't always going to have word cues to indicate what's the, you know, which are the premises of which the conclusion, and they are sometimes maybe they're just labeled very well. So, you have to, you know, word cues are nice, they're helpful, but they can't replace your ability to comprehend and understand what's going on in the paragraph. So, you look at these sentences here, right? I have them out of order, purposely have them out of order as far as, you know, which one is the conclusion, right? They just put it at the bottom. You also shouldn't think that the conclusion is always just going to be the last sentence. That isn't the case, right? But, you know, just looking at these sentences here, right, what can you tell from them looking at these? We never know that any of our perceptual beliefs are true. We are sometimes mistaken in our perceptual beliefs. If we are sometimes mistaken in our perceptual beliefs, then we never know that any of our perceptual beliefs are true. Okay. Well, what do you notice right away about these propositions? Does one seem like it really needs to be proven? You know, is it more, how should we say, implausible than the rest? What's the structure of the sentences? How do they relate to each other? You know, whether a proposition is a premise or conclusion, it's going to depend upon the relationship it has to the other propositions. See, we just look at these. Which one of these looks the most likely to be true? Well, you know, we're sometimes mistaken in our perceptual beliefs. Well, yeah, that happens a lot, right? We make mistakes about colors or shapes or whether, you know, whether or what the thing is off in the distance. That's the most probable thing. If it's the most probable thing, then yet chances are it's going to be a premise. Because the conclusion is going to depend upon the premises. Well, you know, if that's a premise, well, look at that third proposition there. It has the first part of that third proposition is that, you know, we are sometimes mistaken in our perceptual beliefs. And then according to that, you know, that third proposition, well, if that's true, then we never know that any of our perceptual beliefs are true. Okay. You know, maybe you don't necessarily buy that, but you know, it's at least a link between that second proposition and the first proposition. It's the, you know, kind of direction of the argument there, right? So it's that first proposition here. You know, we never know that any of our perceptual beliefs are true. That's the conclusion. The last two are supposed to be premises, evidence for that first proposition. And that's just given by the structure of the argument, the relationship of the premises to each other and, you know, which proposition is the most plausible of the rest? Well, spotting the difference between premises and conclusion, that's one essential skill in dealing with logic. Another essential skill is spotting whether you're actually dealing with an argument, right? Just as not any, you know, not every, excuse me, not every sensible collection of terms, composes a proposition. Not every sensible collection of propositions, composes an argument. There are lots of different kinds of paragraphs besides arguments. There's, you know, simply statements of belief, right? People just kind of expounding what they believe. The lovely day, the temperature is nice, nice and cool. I'm not sweating. I have, there's no rain to ruin my day. And I enjoy the cloudiness because of, you know, decrease in illumination. Right. Maybe I'm just talking about how much I'm enjoying the day. There's no argument there. There's no inference from premises to conclusion. It's just me simply talking about my day. And people do this a lot and kind of mistake it for an argument. They just sit there and say, this is what I believe. And they start really, therefore you must believe this too. Like, well, why? You've just told me what you believe. You haven't given me a set of evidence. You haven't given me evidence for a conclusion.  They're being funny. They're telling a humorous story. Humor is not an argument. It's unfortunate that in today's day and age we get persuaded by humor quite a lot. But humor is not an argument. We think, aha, that person's witty. They made something funny, therefore they said something truth. No, that doesn't work either. Sometimes, well, there's a big difference between an argument and an explanation. Even though, by the way, they kind of look structurally the same as far as paragraphs are concerned. Remember those Q words that I mentioned? Well, sometimes Q words are used for the conclusion of an explanation. You know, the temperature, you know, we say something like, well, okay, so let me just start this way. An explanation is different from an argument. An argument is supposed to persuade you of the conclusion. The premises are supposed to justify the conclusion. That somehow make the conclusion true. An explanation is not like that. An explanation doesn't justify its conclusion. It's not really conclusion. I'm just doing this, you know, it's a scary question on the mind. It's not its conclusion. The premises don't justify, the evidence doesn't justify the conclusion. Rather, with an explanation that explains why the conclusion. Not whether the conclusion, but why the conclusion. So, explanations presume the conclusion is true. And what's given is simply an explanation for why. You know, why it is the case. So, for instance, I've got this tree here, right? I can say something like this. I could say a seed fell on the ground, germinated, took root in the soil through a process of nutrition, hydration and, you know, shade and proper environment that the tree came to be. None of you doubt that the tree exists, right? It's right here. None of you doubt that the tree exists. What I provided is not a justification that the tree exists. If I were to say, I will prove this tree exists, you say, what? That's a little crazy. If I said instead, I will explain how this tree came to be. Okay, well that's an explanation. So, explanations presume the conclusion is true. Now, suppose I did something different. Suppose I said, I will prove to you that this tree has been around longer than San Antonio, Texas. That's probably going to need some evidence, right? You're going to need some kind of justification for that. Yeah, it might be the case that some of the people watching this video are familiar enough with botany where you understand this right away or, you know, you can understand those trees right away. I have a very poor grasp of the age of trees, but I think this tree is somewhere around 20 or 30 years old. It's not older than the San Antonio, Texas. If I were to claim that I could prove that it's older than San Antonio, Texas, well that would be an argument. That conclusion is, that's something that really needs to be proven. Even my claim that this tree is 20 or 30 years old, you're probably still at this point saying, I want to know why that's true. I want to know what evidence or justification you have for that. Now maybe all of a sudden you're interested in the age of trees. So spotting, as I said earlier, spotting the difference between premises and conclusion is an essential skill. Spotting whether you're in fact dealing with an argument as opposed to some other kind of paragraph or series of paragraphs, that's also an essential skill. That's also an essential skill. So, hey, let's take a look at a few examples. So the exercise here is to determine whether this is an argument. Well, let's take a look at this paragraph. So we're just kind of reading it over, right? Does anything strike you as maybe the conclusion or the point or what they're trying to get you to believe for this particular paragraph? We have organisms sinking into deep water means death. Plant cells can't photosynthesize fish. And other animals lose contact with the surface food supply. And then they become food for estranged deep living predators. That's a frightening phrase. It's an estranged deep living predators. It's a little scary, actually. I didn't realize the logic class was going to be frightening in this way. Well, which of these sentences are supposed to, I don't know, which propositions lead to a point to or justify the others? Well, it's not that, you know, plant cells can't photosynthesize. It's somehow justified by fish and other animals that descend, right? It's not like the second proposition is justified by the third. And it's not even justified by the first, either. I mean, maybe that would be an example. The second proposition might be an example of the first, but it's not justified by the first. Same thing goes with the third one, right? The second or the first proposition. In fact, it's that first proposition that is, you know, kind of being led to by the second and the third, right? This is the main point. Organisms at the sea surface, sinking into deep water usually means death. Okay. Now, okay, so this really looks like it's the main point of the paragraph. Is it an argument? Do you need to be persuaded of the fact? Does this need to be justified by the other two? Well, no, right? We can just simply observe organisms at the sea surface, sinking into deep water, right? That's not hard to figure out, right? We just observe them doing this. How do we justify that organisms at the sea surface, you know, they sink and that usually means we watch it happen. The second and the third proposition in this paragraph are explaining or giving examples or, you know, trying to illustrate the first, right? So this isn't an argument. It's an explanation. It's an explanation. Let's take a look at another one. Okay, so here we have a statement about young people at universities trying to achieve knowledge, not learn a trade. We all must learn how to support ourselves, but we must also learn how to live. We need a lot of engineers in the model world, but we do not need a world of modern engineers. Okay. Now, is there a conclusion, right? I mean, point for all of this. Is one of these propositions infer, or does some of the propositions infer the remaining? I mean, we've got three propositions here. I would be impressed if you have a, you know, one of these propositions is actually a conclusion. Now, at best, right, this is an explanation. And even then, I wouldn't, I don't even think it's an explanation. It looks like a statement of belief to my eyes. We've got three propositions here. They're really not related to each other, right? They're almost, each one is almost a rephrase of the main point of the other two. Slightly different take on it, but yeah. There's not even an explanation here. This is just a statement of belief. So when you're reading these, you know, reading your paragraphs, trying to read passages, you know, one essential skill, as I said, one essential skill is to find the conclusion. And another essential skill is to figure out whether you even have an argument here. Well, to sum up, we've looked at the definition of logic. We looked at the three parts of logic. Two kinds of arguments. The difference between premises and conclusion. The, even the difference between arguments and other kinds of paragraphs or series of paragraphs. And we've even had a little bit of practice ourselves. We looked at a few examples. So your next step is to practice, right? Take the exercises that are provided through the course.  So practice, have fun, and I'll see you next time.


Trading Newsletters. The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Trader's Edge with Steve Rhodes.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The Trader's Edge. Now Steve Rhodes. Good afternoon folks, welcome to the April 24th, the fantastic Friday edition of today's Trader's Edge show. I'm your host, Steve Perseverance Rhodes, who absolutely knows that each of us should always be pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past. Well, proven out there is having a great day. Let's make sure we have an extraordinary one. And the easiest way to do that is to always remember that life is happening for us. Not to us. That's right, when you and I make that one little two by four shift, it means we can find a gift in every set of circumstance that life is going to toss at us. Now today you and I, we're going to go check on the circumstance of these markets. We're going to go figure out what those bulls and bears, what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I just passed one o'clock in the afternoon. I want you to know that I'm absolutely grateful for your presence here, but much, much more important than that. During this next 60 minutes, I'm here to serve you. So feel free to pick up that phone. You can dial on in at<PHONE_NUMBER>. If you can't dial in, well, we've got you covered there too. You can send me an email, send it early, Steve, at tfn.com inside the subject heading, please put radio show question in our Tiger's Den while any ping will do. So let's go ahead and get this show started on Fantastic Fabulous Friday. Of course, this is Tiger Financial News Network. I'm Steve Rhodes. Welcome to LUS Show. All right, now we got most of the indices in the green, mildly so. The dial is up 11 points. S&P 10, NASDAQ 156. The semis are up 18 points there. The leaders in the clubhouse up one and one-tenth percent. New York Stock Exchange is flat. It says down seven points. It is down seven points. That's flat. You've got the spot volatility index now starting to take a deep dive. It's trading out at 38 bucks. It's well below its 50-day exponential moving average out there. When that is moving lower, S&P should be moving sideways to higher out there. Hmm, something to think about. If we go take a look at Goldilocks, she's back 11 bucks, trading out at 17.33. Silver is down 14 cents. A little bit less than 1%. Lightsweed Crude is trading out at 16.80. Natural gas back three pennies. The 30-year treasury up nine ticks. Lead the charge dollar-wise. It is Shopify up 24 bucks, nearly 4%. Wayfair, 16 bucks, $16. O'Reilly Automotive, 11 bucks. Tesla is up about 10. To the downside, Mercado Libre up 26 bucks. 4% eHealth is down 17 bucks or 13%. Google's off 12. Booking Holdings down 14. And that's really about it. No requests. There was a request that came in, I think, really early this morning. Let's start from Mike in Niagara Falls. And Mike was wanting to just simply take a look at IYR, some of the Holdings inside there. Here, if we take a look at the IYR. Now, Mike, you're of the belief that the real estate sector is going to go back to the 2009 lows out there. I'd say we just simply take things one step at a time. I can understand that. Certainly, real estate is going to look a little bit different as the economy starts to come back on line. Certainly, you don't want to be owning much in the way of brick and mortar businesses out there. If we do take a look at the IYR, though, and see what it's doing as we speak right now, you've got price trading in between support and resistance on its daily timeframe. It's got a bear structure profile. The price got up to $80.12. That's where the snipers or the sellers are hanging out. Right now, it looks like price is going to go try to make its way down to where the buyers are hanging out, $68.14. That's the bottom of that daily profile. Otherwise, price is trading below the weekly, trading below the monthly profiles. And so, yeah, it doesn't really look that great out here. Let's take a look at the IYR. I don't know how long this ETF has been around. Let me see if we've got the monthly. So, to take a look at the monthly timeframe out here, what it did was it pulled back and it found support and it's a third breakout level. That was 5606. So, Mike, if you know that 5606 area of support, below that's going to bring you 5157 and then below that 2914. Those are breakout levels on the way down for the IYR. That's taking a look at the monthly timeframe. What do we have out here on the daily timeframe? Do I have really anything? I've got Stevie's red line at $70.18. Today's going to be day number five of a TD set up nine-calf pattern, potential nine-calf pattern out here. But if price breaks below 70.18, Mike, then you're going to see 68.14, the bottom of that daily profile below that. Then you're down towards the lows of March of this year. So I hope that helps you out with regard to the U.S. real estate sector within the IYR's real estate sector ETF out there. Let's go take a look at the general markets out here and let me give you a voice of caution, a word of caution out here. Over the last half hour, I have had significant internet issues out here. I've rebooted my system twice to get everything back up and running. Really was by the hair of our chinny chin chin that we got this thing going just before I came on the air. The reason I say it is if I get knocked off again, pretty good chance I'm not going to be able to get back on it. If that's the case, my apologies, but wanted to give you that kind of heads up. And I don't know why that's happening for us. I guess the early start of a Friday. Oh, that's not really what I wanted to do. So let's go take a look at the, what things can we look at? Let's go take a look at what the markets are doing from a short-term standpoint. And that's this. Remember, always important to understand support and resistance because we've had such wild swings or large swings. We won't call them wild, just simply large. The intraday charts really are the ones that are helpful to both you and I at understanding what the intention of the market is and understanding those breakout and breakdown levels. And it's really important because they're not swing points out here and you want to learn this tool. It's easy to learn. You just simply go subscribe to Mastering Probability at a minimum of 29 days because it's a 30-day free trial and you're going to learn loads that you're going to be able to apply to your trading and investing and it'll guarantee it will help you. But take a look at what transpired last night at about... What time was it now? Let me not guess what the time was and tell you. Too many things running through my head. It was about 10 o'clock last night. Each of the equity futures contracts for their hourly time frame. Now I'm only showing the ESDNQ and the DAO out here. You'll see that they bottom with that TD set up nine count. And then what took place this morning? Well, price ran its way up and when did it stop moving higher? Well, that was at nine o'clock. And why? Because that was a TD nine count. Now in both of those... All three of these instances, those TD nine counts happened before resistance. They're breakdown resistance, 28-17, 87-34 and 23-6-30 out there. Those are going to be key levels to be observing today. Now that TD nine count, remember, sellers get a topping signal, which is what transpired here. Their role is to try to bust through support, at least get down to support. That's exactly what happened on a 60-minute time frame. You can also see that as that nine count was forming here in the ES, look at the upper panel chart out here, you can see Stevie's red line at that stage was turning green. What happens then? What's that phenomena associated with Stevie's green and red line? When those change colors, you're going to see price go test those areas. And when that test takes place, you'll see what its intention is. Well, in the case of the ES mini, the test was to go down, test and reject that level. Stevie's green line currently 27-91. If you can't bust them down, looks like the ES mini is going to try to bust it to the upside. The upside is 28-17-50. You had the same thing going on inside of the NQ. Again, 87-34 is going to be a key area to watch. And inside the Dow, it's struggling. It's still not above Stevie's green line for its 60-minute time frame out there. We're just trading between support and resistance. Support are those red horizontal lines, 27-55, 80-505, and 23-166. See, Roach, with TF and N. If you're not currently using the Taz Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The Taz Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. Headed by Steve Dahl, Taz understands that in today's technological world, the use of top-flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. You also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted, the best way to use the Taz Profile Scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. All new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Start your subscription by visiting the front page of TF and N.com today and you'll find the Taz Profile Scanner under the Services tab. Sign up today. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future, call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at Tiger at TF and N.com. That's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Call us today. Working for 30 days while you try out your Tiger's Den membership as part of our open house. With market volatility at an all-time high and people all over the world working from home if possible, TF and N is hosting an open house in our Tiger's Den. The Tiger's Den is an interactive chat room that runs all day where other Tigers and Tigresses discuss trading ideas with the hosts and members, along with charts and current market news, as well as live access to the charts the hosts use during their programs. Join us for the Tiger's Den open house. Begin your Den membership today by just entering open at checkout and pay nothing while you try things out for 30 days. For all the details and to start your Den membership today, visit the front page of TF and N.com. Don't miss out on the TF and N Tiger's Den open house taking place now. Sign up today. Let's spend no questions at this stage here. The lines are open<PHONE_NUMBER>. No emails as of yet. It gives us an opportunity to spend a little time to take a look at the bigger picture out there. That is just substantially important. I'm not worried right now about just trying to time the market, so to speak. I want you to have a really good perspective on the big picture and just simply statistics or data and the importance of it. It's ability to help you and I understand what is going to take place. That's just so important out here because you can get so caught up into the minutia of the news and everybody's opinion. I'm not going to give you my opinion. I'm just simply going to narrate what the charts are communicating to you and I. Then from there, you make your decisions. Basically when I analyze or analyze a stock chart out here, I'm just reading, not reading AT-leafs, I'm just reading what buyers and sellers are communicating to us. That's all that we're doing out here. So we're understanding what they are telling us. Now we use a handful of tools that assist us with that. You get to see those used time and time again, multiple time frames, instruments and so forth and that just makes it easier and you then get to determine whether those tools are helpful to you. The question is how important is unemployment or how important is it for you and I to understand unemployment and the stock market? Well, let's go take a look at it. Here, what I've done, we can go back into the 1920s out here, but here I'm just going back to 1969. So we've got what, 40 years, 70, 80, 90, 50 years worth of data out here. That's pretty decent, right? Now the top portion of the chart, and we're just looking at closing prices, this is just a line charts out here. You've got this monthly time frames out here because we get monthly unemployment numbers out here. If we take a look at, so the top portion is the Dow. So this portion here of the charts that you're looking at take us from 1969 to 1990. So we've got 70, 80, 90, we've got 20 years worth of data out here. The bottom portion is the unemployment percentage and what is it that you see? You see when unemployment is going up, so that's the bottom panel, you see the Dow going up and you can see the unemployment percentage and you go back and you take a look at what the Dow is doing, it's moving lower. When unemployment is falling, what is the Dow doing? It's moving higher. When unemployment is rising, what is the Dow doing? You're just following my cursor here. You see the direct correlation out here between unemployment. Even take a look at the 1987 crash. So many people, you see the 1987 crash.  What was unemployment doing after the 1987 crash? It's called just a blip. How could one possibly correlate the 1987 crash to what's going on right now? You have to ignore unemployment. You have to ignore GDP. You have to ignore everything that is realistic out here. Everything. So this here just takes us to 1990. Let's go take a look at what's transpired from 1991 into 2020. It is the exact same pattern and principle. Now look, I just threw in here for blanks and giggles at the unemployment rate. It's going to come out around 21%. I don't know what it's going to come out at. We'll have that data soon enough. But do you really think that we just bottomed unemployment? I mean, I suppose that's what somebody, some people could think. How could that possibly be? I don't think that is even close to reality out here.  I wouldn't vote for any of them. Any of them. Really, do we really want to give careers for politicians out here? We see what they're anyway. So let's just stick to the charts out here. So this is very important for you to understand the core and, you know, when you got to Buffett's partner Munger saying what these guys are sitting on 180 billion in cash or something like that. And they're just simply some of their small businesses, which aren't so small, are just simply going to be shuttered, meaning that they don't even believe investing some of their funds into those businesses make a whole lot of sense. So we're in this decade probably of major unemployment. What else will you know? Now, there's something else I put in here because somebody had asked me yesterday what about investing in municipal bonds? Okay. So here's what I want to be able to, you know, so you've got to take a look at your portfolios. Because many of you may not really know depending on the ETFs that you have where you're at with regard to your exposure to different municipal bond funds out there. So here, states made risky this is taken from some news article that I had yesterday or this morning. States made risky bets with pensions before the coronavirus. Now they want to bail out. You guys all know that, right? So let's go take a look at the iShares Muni bond ETF, the MUB which had that nice big move to the downside. Right now it's trading below Stevie's red line heading back to support 109.15 or 107.85. But that stuff doesn't really even matter. What matters is what are the top 10 holdings inside of this ETF? Well, now all we've got to do is you can go do this yourself. You can pull this up. Here are the top 10 holdings. Now they happen to have their top holding is cash. Cash is king. There's no doubt about that. But when you start taking a look at these percentages, they're small because they have lots of holdings, so lots of exposure out there. But the top holding is the metropolitan transit authority in New York. You think New York's bond funds, your pension funds are in good shape out there? I could have swore I heard Como griping. I was going to use an adjective to add to that griping out there about the money that is needed inside of New York and certainly coronavirus oriented to get it. But their pension funds? No. And where do they make a lot of their money folks? Off the taxes.  So number one you've got the Metropolitan Transit Authority then you've got the New York City Transit Financial Authority. Then you got San Francisco then you've got University of California, something or other more California. And then you got Washington State out there. So in the top 10 holdings you're dealing with New York, California and the state of Washington out there. We haven't even gotten into things like New Jersey or Illinois for goodness sakes. And so my recommendation to the individual who emailed me yesterday was don't worry about trying to time this. Get your cash out of, now you can be selective. Some cities some states are certainly better than others out there. But when it comes to the ETF as an example why would you have any exposure inside this marketplace? Now maybe you've got a reason to have exposure there I'm saying don't do it don't do it I think Rodney Dangerfield would say that wouldn't he? Don't do it when you know when you can see what's coming there's all kinds of defaults that are going to transpire. So limit your exposure to any of these areas out there. Mike in Niagara Falls he gave you an area to be watching out for and get out of the way of. That's the real estate sector out there. Here's another one with regard to these. If you've got to have exposure to bonds make sure that it's just the U.S. federal treasury bond out there. I don't care if it's the TLT and yeah the TLT and treasury bonds are not done moving higher. Don't forget we looked at treasury bonds in other currencies that are making higher highs eventually but I don't mean to be Stevie Downer or Debbie Downer if I do want to protect your assets out there.  We'll be right back. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6 and 3 months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too. Sign up today. If you're a trader in the market looking to find the path that leads to maximizing profits while decreasing risk then now is a great time to try out Dave White's daily trading service The Path of Lease Resistance. Through the use of options and equity trades Dave advises his subscribers on a daily basis of the current market conditions and what possible trade setups are on the horizon. The Path of Lease Resistance is published every trading morning often with updates intraday when initiating trades or closing out positions. Dave White has advised his clients of some outstanding winning options and equity trades in recent months and now is a great time to try it out for yourself. New subscribers to The Path of Lease Resistance receive a 30 day money back guarantee. See for yourself the types of options and equity trades that are available by signing up for The Path of Lease Resistance today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com and selecting the newsletter tab. Sign up today. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best selling book The Art of Timing the Trade Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System David White has programmed an outstanding range of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first of its kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleaf, ABCs, butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available for $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com So we know the direct correlation, directional correlation between the unemployment rate and the Dow and what it does. We have talked about over the past couple of weeks GDP and its correlation to major bottoms in the stock market. So what you and I clearly know is the bottom that formed back in March was the coronavirus bottom. The next bottom that forms, which will be sometime over the course of the next decade 10, 12 years or so, well that will be the GDP and probably the unemployment bottom, but until then folks and not really talking about trying to time this market, I'm talking about you trying to protect your assets and take a look at the long term portfolio out there and remember what that burn felt like on the way down and start preparing, start preparing for economic winter out here. It's just, again, it's not my opinion. It's just simply the data.  And I mean that for you personally and individually. But you know many people and we can see them that are a pioneer of their past. They are a prisoner of their past and not a pioneer of their future out here. But one thing about the stock market tools that you and I look at is these patterns repeat over and over again. We've gone back into the early 1900s and we've taken a look at each of these patterns where this roads went to Mindicator, the TD9 count patterns out there. It's why when we take a look at the Dow let's do this here let's pull this over just so we can take a look at it. And we had a request to go take a look at IAG but let me just stay on the soapbox for a moment because this is really truly extraordinarily important to you. And look, I hope I'm as wrong as I possibly can be. I absolutely do. But you decide I think the data is pretty compelling. Now what we do know is on this last move the coronavirus flow made its way all the way back to its breakout support level inside the Dow. That was 1976-77. Yes it got down below but at the end of the month price closed back above it. That was its first test out here. It's pierced through that area. So that says to me that the next low that comes in are going to be those next breakout levels those next breakout levels that could be 17-063. The better one, the better breakout level for us. Now it'll cause a lot of pain where 23-5-37 would be the 15-8-55 level. The reason why I say that would be the better one is because that has been a proven level of support. This began back in October of 2014. And it was tested during the 2015 consolidation pattern. Then it was tested back in August of 2015. August of 2015, that might have been the... Was August of 2015 was that the was that the shoot what's that other disease at Ebola? Was that the Ebola low or was that the Malaysian airliner low out there? I can't recall. It might have been the Ebola low back in 2015. Doesn't matter. Price came back to that test out level, tested and rejected it. We were still in a consolidation. The market was, not you or I, but the market was still in a consolidation. We tested that level in January of 2016 and February of 2016. And each of those three times it held. So if price could get back and hold that 15-8-55 level, that's the possibility, possibility, possibility of being a bottom out there. But these are going to get, they're not just going to test it. They're going to get blown through there. And those will be the levels to be watching. The 15-8-55, 17-063 and may not stop there. We'll have to take a look at what's going on inside of the daily timeframe charts. Now let's go, oh, IAG was the request out here. So let's go take a look at IAG and that is for that's from George in Tampa. So George is looking for an entry point into IAG and from a long-term hold standpoint. So let's go take a look at IAG. Let's do this here. Let's start with our market profiles. That is IAM Gold Corporation. Now we take a look at IAG. This is trading above its daily and its weekly profiles. So your next level of resistance George is going to be the top of the monthly profile. That's 397. So what George and I are doing right now is we're looking at these charts and because we're sports enthusiast we want to understand what the teams are doing. And this is, so when we understand what the teams are doing, where's offense, where's defense out here, is there any defense? Well when price is blown through the top of a profile, it's headed to the end zone where that next level might be. Well, I'm saying that the end zone for IAM Gold is going to be 397. That's the only profile their price is below. Now you're saying here, George you want to take this trade from a long-term perspective. What I want to say to you or share with you is that going back from July of 2019, he's pretty soon we're going to be at July of 2020. So for over basically about a year this thing has been consolidating and it's found resistance at that 397 level and you're at 354. So now is most certainly not the time to take that long position out here. You would need to see IAG. I'd rather you buy it if price closed above 397. But right now we know that that is a significant resistance level. It's been in place for over a year out here and so you'd be watching that. Now let's pull over my other charts out there. And on the daily it would be the top of its profile that's 283, 326 would be the pullback area on it's a weekly timeframe. I'm not suggesting that that's where you would go enter and take the position. Let's take the daily time frame out here as well. Let me see what this might be trading into. Is this trading in any other resistance out here? And voila it is. The green line isn't stretched all the way across but you'll see a 364 out here and price looks like you got up to about 364 today. That is a resistance so price needs to clear that to be able to make that move to the top of that daily profile. The last time price was up here we didn't necessarily know why prices stop. Now when I say last up here I'm referring back to this trading session which was a wide-ranging bar on February 25th but all it did was it tested and it rejected that to break down a level and then it proceeded to move and make the March low out here back on March the 17th. Do I have any other kind of topping signal? I don't have any other topping signal on a daily timeframe out here other than that 364 is a significant resistance level. So what this would be then saying to you George is that IAG may begin to pull back. In fact you and I would bet money that IAG and Stevie's green line are going to catch each other, test each other. We just don't know how. We don't know if price is pulling back, if price is moving sideways while the oscillator and change line moves higher we don't know but there is an ensuing test and it'll be that test George that will tell you whether or not price on the daily basis will pull back to its breakout level. Granted I gave you the top of that daily profile about three but the real breakout level on the IAG for its daily timeframe is 246. That would be the level that you would be looking for based upon that daily timeframe. Let's go see on a weekly basis out here for IAM Gold if there's any resistance. Oh yeah, well sure enough. 355 is the number and that is it's a TD-9 count to break down a level but it is still an area of resistance. So with regard to you want this from a long-term standpoint look with just simply in looking at that monthly timeframe we know that that's not the type of gain that you're looking for the difference between 397 and 354 and therefore I think you've got to sit on your hands for a while Greg. I hope that that helps you out again ticker symbol I A G We can go take a look at for SNP and the den wants to look at the IWM. So let's go take a look at the IWM. Let's do it here using the same tool I hear the music so we'll be back to look at IWM in just a few. 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information So we're taking a look at the Russell 2000 stock price inside the Tiger stand and if we just begin by taking a look at the daily time frame what we can very clearly see is that price made its way up to resistance resistance here several gaps to the downside inside of the IWM so we're looking at the gap to the downside on March 12th that had volume of 70 million shares now as price got up there I mean to the bottom of the gap that's the low of the trading session of March 11 price volume was pretty nice it was 69 million versus the 70 million to the downside nonetheless it was a test and rejection because price was pushing into a area of resistance with decent volume it was really suggesting that price would get back up there and retest that area and that's exactly what happened on April 14th and April 14th's test was a test and rejection with much lighter volume half the volume 35 million shares to be exact now so you know that's your resistance level 124.17 if price can clear that well then it's going to go ahead or should be able to move higher what else do we know there's resistance at 124.88 that's the top of its daily profile out here what we can see is the Russell 2000 has just simply been moving sideways now with the Russell 2000 is done it's very bearish out here it's completed like a .382 Gartley sell pattern here's every Gartley sell pattern is going to have an A to B equal CD to the upside that's what we got out here that's what took place as price was testing that breakdown level and then there was this gap to the downside right here on April 15th that confirmed the Gartley sell pattern now the key is that price is just simply consolidating it's trading between support and resistance being the bottom of the profile in the top of the profile out here if price closes below the bottom of that profile 111.51 does it for more than two trading sessions well it won't be a stretch here for the Russell 2000 make its way all the way back to those march lows and if price can take out resistance well then this Gartley sell pattern will have failed now let's take a look at what's going on on the weekly timeframe for the IWM price if this is just a counter trend rally in the IWM and we believe that it is and we believe that our small businesses are really going to get the snot kicked out of them really get the snot kicked out of them and with this virus this this flu virus like all flu viruses that go away in the summertime and boy isn't it great to be living in Florida where the heat and humidity seem to dampen the virus out there that's a beautiful thing but if this is just a counter trend rally in the Russell 2000 we would have picked the top of its profile as a level to where the counter trend rally would have ended well that's exactly what took place 125 07 is the number price got up to 124.88 so that's close enough for us out here and you know the IWM has got that topping signal out here now if we go take a look at Stevie's other tools out here see if there's anything that we can see anything else that is of significance I don't have anything of significance on the daily I don't have anything on the weekly of the prices still trading well below Stevie's red line that's at 128 and change out here and yeah so I don't really have anything else I hope that helps you out with regard to the IWM there was another request inside the Tiger's Den to take a look at ticker symbol IMMU so first let's go figure out what that is IMMU that is immunometics ink out here and boy this thing has had quite a few gaps to say the least right now it's trading at 27.59 inside bars today typically mean that the trend that's in place is going to continue in that case there that would say continue to the upside now we say continue to the upside but what we can clearly see we go look at the long-term chart that's the monthly time frame that's the right panel is a price has done it's made its way up to resistance that's 27.33 granted prices trading above it but the end of the month is not here so a close above that beautiful thing a close where we're at right now really below 27.33 says hey go see if on the daily time frame or the weekly time frame there's some other type of topping patterns or signals out here so let's go take a look at the daily time frame and on the daily time frame what do we have I don't have anything to suggest that it is a top at least with the data that we're looking at at this stage here so let's go switch over to the weekly time frame and don't don't worry yourself that price gapped up and it is rated lower and think that that is a bearish candle it's not it just tells you where price open where prices trading right now we take a look at the weekly time frame well the weekly time frame what do we have out here really not much price closing the week out above 21.93 is intermediate time bullish out here on the monthly time frame is there anything else other than what we had which was the profile no nothing else that I have but watch the profile level 27 33 for ticker symbol immune no medics ink you know not really a great pronunciation of that but that does look to me like it wants to continue to move higher hope that helps you out I don't recall who requested that but it was somebody that was inside the tiger's den we got a couple questions coming in by email here first one from Hector and Patty and Hector says I believe what you are saying and we are following your lead okay if given time can you discuss your Dow seasonal map I believe May 19th on average is a big topping date out there and so what Hector is in the fuel injectors is asking for and I can find it I tell you what I'm going to do Hector is I'll come back and find that during the break because it could take and we've had about two minutes before the break so I'll come back to that we'll take a look at the seasonality chart here for you but you are right it is in the middle of November where you typically see a sell in May and go away type of pattern rich writes in and rich says thank you for your informative show even if you're depressing at times I've got to love that's okay no problem I'm just giving you the facts I've shared with you I just said I said it live I hope I am as dead wrong as humanly possible but you know what that would require that would require me to say this time is going to be different and that I'm going to ignore all the facts out there you can ignore all the facts that I present it's okay with me could you please discuss gold and the gold miners I'm torn because it seems like we should have deflation in the short term due to a lack of a demand caused by high unemployment in the long run printing and borrowing trillions of dollars should be inflationary you're currently long so rich I would say you're dead wrong about the idea of printing money and that that causes inflation and I hate to be so direct about that but rich think about it like this we have been I mean all we have to do is continue to look at the facts and let some of these myths go by the wayside the Fed has in terms has been printing money since the beginning of time but certainly since 2008 what kind of inflation have we seen out there none this printing of money look because we are the dominant in the primary currency out here printing money well here printing money causes a lot of putting additional money into the market let's say you own a 5 million dollar house and I buy it for 10% down and you get paid on your 5 million dollars and I only put 10% of my money down that's 4.5 million dollars where did that come from mortgages produce more cash in the marketplace than anything the Fed could do Steve Rhodes with TFNN with markets trading with extreme volatility and peaks and troughs everywhere regardless of what you're looking at in the markets this is a great time to see the type of analysis Basil Chapman delivers for his subscribers every market day with the opening call newsletter Basil has been analyzing markets providing his take for subscribers to his trading services since 1984 every morning Basil publishes an update for his subscribers along with weekend and evening updates when warranted the opening call provides traders a daily market overview with regard to the direction of the key indices, selective stocks and commodities along with specific recommendations including stops and targets you also gain instant access to Basil's subscriber webinar archive from earlier this year a dark cloud cover an essential market analysis ride the Chapman wave today by signing up for the opening call newsletter on the front page of TFNN.com under the newsletter tab with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk, sign up today the gold market has taken off topside in a large way in 2020 if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report took profits in 4 of its equities in the gold portfolio in the first week of January for a combined profit of 99.2% with 2 positions left in the portfolio that have a profit of 67.5% as of January 7th the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I publish the gold report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds the XAU, HUI, GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting TFNN.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade, sign up today you know what's cool? taking something that's good for you something specifically formulated to help with weight loss better sleep, stress reduction and the need to detox Nicar, hunter and gatherer ancestors found all their nutritional requirements for health in their wild environment, but today our food sources no longer contain the vitamins, minerals and nutrients our bodies need to stay healthy and strong that's why we need primal edge daily nutrition it includes a special blend of ionic, soil based vitamins minerals, fatty and amino acids and an easy to use liquid form primal edge is powered by highly concentrated folic and humic acids nature's preferred delivery system they've been called miracle molecules because like sunlight, air and water life cannot exist without them that's right Paige, they ensure we receive all the nutrition we need to be healthy and thrive we take it every morning primal edge, formulated and approved by Niko and Paige of living a primal lifestyle buy it today for just $89 look on the primal edge banner on the front page of TFNN.com this is David White stay tuned because coming up next is the power trading hour right here on TFNN folks, so Rich I just want you to understand that the printing of money especially when you are the world's dominant currency which we are in the US is not going to create inflation the only thing that's really going to create well, there's several different types of inflation but the type of inflation that you're talking about as far as printing money that is just an absolute myth and we have all the historical data right now just simply coming from 2008 to where we're at and then you have to realize because we're in a fractional banking system that what prints more money puts more money in the marketplace out there is all the home purchases and mortgages you know, where does that money just comes out of thin air right, so it is an absolute fallacy to believe that printing money now if we're in some other country some third world country or what have you they've got a different situation but we're the world's dominant currency I read a report recently that 70% of the actual hard currency meaning the dollars hundred dollar bills primarily is outside of the US that tells you about the demand for our currency I promise you could go anywhere around the world I've done it, I have traveled the world I have absolutely traveled the world, kind of like David White I've got millions of miles millions of miles on several different airlines out there I've had the opportunity to see what the US dollar actually means to people across the globe if you travel with US dollars you will be able to use US dollars anywhere you go, anywhere you go back to the GDX out here, I realize run out of time what it's done so far out here Rich, it's made a 1 to 1a to b equals the upside, we were looking at this yesterday and yesterday at around 1 o'clock it looked like it might be a shooting star too much bottom of a wick out here so it was just a gap to the upside if the GDX generates some type of bearish reversal candle then it's telling you that it has topped out at least from a daily time frame until they bearish reversal candle forms this a to b equals cd pattern says price heads up to about 37 dollars and 3 cents out there folks, thanks so much for being here take a look at your portfolio please, no municipal bond exposure out there and start preparing for economic winter this bounce has been a gift I'm sorry that I'm Stevie Downer but I do want to help you protect your heart and capital so have a fantastic weekend and we'll see you back here on Magnificent Magical Monday, take care folks