Let me just begin by saying that I hope we'll be able to see a full presentation. I will receive copies of the full presentation. That is already on the monitor, but what I will do is to simply speak to the presentation and refer to the slides, a couple of slides, to save time. So at the end of 2019, our economy was looking very good indeed. We had had four quarters of consecutive GDP growth and all the fundamentals, the macroeconomic fundamentals looked excellent and were well on our way to much faster growth. Then COVID-19 struck and if we go to slide four, you will see, we can see the devastating impact of COVID-19 on the economy. GDP contracted to minus 6.10% during the second quarter of 2020. All price at one point fell even below production costs, about $10 a barrel and then finally settled at about $45 a barrel during the second quarter of 2020. The official rate of the NIRA was devalued from 305 NIRA to the dollar, then to 380 NIRA to the dollar, and this was by the third quarter of 2020. Unemployment went up to 33.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020. And in slide five, you can also see, slide five, you can see there were sharp declines in some key sectors. Transportation sector declined by 49%, hospitality fell by 40%, the education sector fell by 24%, real estate declined by 22%, trade declined by 17% and construction by 40%. So clearly we were in a terrible economic situation and all brought upon us by the pandemic. I think it's very important to put in context just the enormity of the shocks that we experienced because even a 5% decline in any sector of the economy is significant, so clearly where you get 40% decline, where you get 49% in transportation, for example, 40% in construction. I mean, that is deep, especially as the country was just pulling out of an earlier recession. And this is also in the context of the security challenges that we're facing in different zones of the country. So the total picture at the time was certainly very dear. In response, the President took two actions. The first was to set up a small interministerial committee headed by the Minister of Finance to quickly examine the implications of and the immediate mitigation steps that would be taken for the economic shocks that we were experiencing. The second step which Mr. President took was to ask that we draw up a full economic sustainability plan to provide at least a 12-month response to the fallout of the pandemic, and Mr. President asked me to chair the committee to draw up the plan and later to implement the plan. We were clear that the only way, and Mr. President's position also, was that the only way of avoiding an economic disaster that could last for years was for government to essentially put forward a major fiscal stimulus plan with clear objectives of saving jobs, creating new ones, supporting businesses that may close down, and employees that may not be paid during the lockdowns, and of course, healthcare support to reduce the COVID-19 caseload. So the objectives of the plan are set out in slide eight. If you look at slide eight, the objectives of the plan are set out there. First, improved healthcare and lowering the COVID-19 caseload. The second was restoring growth. The third, job creation and safeguarding existing jobs. The fourth, increased local production, and part of that was what we call the guaranteed off-take scheme. The fifth was reducing social vulnerabilities, and that essentially was looking at how to improve the quality and effectiveness of the social investment program and the scope of the program as part of the improving social vulnerabilities. The size of the stimulus or the cost of the plan was 2.3 trillion, and slide 10 will show us how we planned to raise that 2.3 trillion Naira. And this was all very carefully worked out. At the Economic Sustainability Committee, we looked very carefully at the different models and how much money we thought would be able to get us back into growth and out of recession quickly, and were assisted by the MBS and, of course, the Ministry of Finance also assisted greatly in setting up a model that could describe to us and tell us as nearly accurate as possible how much would be required to get us out of the recession and, of course, to get us back to a path of sustainable growth. So the sources of funding after we had decided there was 2.3 trillion were one from special accounts, 500 billion from special accounts. Now these special accounts is just a way of describing different government accounts that we thought we could draw from, you know. So essentially what we were doing was wiring money from different government accounts and pulling them into one account so that we could use that as a first bit of money that we could get in order to finance the 2.3 trillion. Then there was lending from the CBN, structured lending from the CBN to the tune of 1.22 trillion Naira. Now this lending, of course, is completely different from ways and means. This lending was supposed to come through CRR and through the banking system itself. So essentially what we were supposed to do, what we were getting from the CBN was lending, was on lending to banks which would then be lent to the businesses and to the sectors of the economy that we thought would require the lending. Then for multilateral, bilateral and multilateral agencies, another 334 billion and other funding sources, 300 billion. I'll come back to slides 11 and 13 later. So we set up some priority clusters, areas of activity that could be grouped together for planning purposes. And in slide nine you'll see the priority clusters. So the priority clusters were mitigating the shock, that was a cluster. How do we mitigate the immediate steps to be taken? Tackling vulnerabilities, which of course is the social investment program. Job intensive interventions, in other words, programs designed to create and sustain jobs and we'll come to that in a moment. Then rescuing businesses, which was the MSME survival fund, et cetera. Then repositioning the economy and we then took also what we described as cross-cutting imperatives for a post-COVID economic recovery. We thought that perhaps it was also an opportunity for us to do certain things or to put certain things in the fall, which even after the initial interventions and getting away from the economic shocks would be required for us to be able to put the economy on a path of sustained growth. The six priority clusters enabled programs to be compartmentalized in buckets with cloud targets. So in slide 14, I think it's slide 14, yes, we have some of the fiscal and monetary measures which were taken to help mitigate the impact of the pandemic. So the fiscal measures included the extension of the deadline and suspension of penalties for filing late returns. For example, the conversion of the World Bank $82 million radici program to support COVID-19 interventions in the state. So we asked the World Bank to allow us to convert that $82 million program to give individual states money so that they could build up their healthcare facilities, set up their laboratories and do a few other things that were required as an emergency measure. And the World Bank consented to that, so we were able to distribute the $82 million to the different states. The provision of an 86 billion intervention fund for health infrastructure, and that came directly from our 500 billion from the special accounts. Payment of an incentive package for frontline healthcare workers, that, you know, of course also came from the 500 billion. And then the grant of an additional moratorium of one year on CBN intervention facilities, so the CBN intervention facilities that had been given to various businesses, the CBN graciously consented to a reduction, to a one-year moratorium for payments so that they were then able to defer payment on their loans for at least a year. Of course that was subsequently extended when we found that that would not be adequate. Then was reduction in interest rates on intervention facilities with the CBN had given, CBN gave those intervention facilities at 9 percent, so there was a reduction as part of the plan to make life easier for businesses to 5 percent, from 9 percent to 5 percent. Then there was also a grant of regulatory forbearance to banks to give borrowers some breathing space, including through restructuring of outstanding debts. In other words, businesses that wanted their loans restructured, businesses that felt that they were no longer able to keep up payments of their loans to banks. The CBN gave a regulatory forbearance, in other words, allowed the banks to be able to look at their loan structures and restructure where that was required. In other words, the CBN granted a forbearance on non-performing loans. The CBN also, and these are some of the interventions that the CBN reports, a disbursement of 3.9 million smallholder firms. This was under the Anchor Boroughs Program, about $789 billion the CBN reports were spent on the Anchor Boroughs Program. Now the Anchor Boroughs Program, of course, was not a part of the economic sustainability plan in that way, but it obviously affected the way that, first of all, the general amount of money that were released in the system and, of course, it was a continuous program and it flowed also into the economic sustainability plan. There was also another $134.6 billion to 38,140 beneficiaries under the AGS-MIS scheme and $343 billion to 726,158 beneficiaries. I'm looking here at CBN's own direct interventions and the release of over a trillion NIRA to 269 real sector projects in all. 103 billion disbursed to 110 healthcare projects. Now these, of course, are the CBN's own releases, CBN's own interventions. Some of the fiscal measures were taken to safeguard all revenues, mobilized and preserved non-all revenues and rationalized government expenditure. These were steps taken, essentially, by the Ministry of Finance. But a major component of the plan was, of course, to build a resilient healthcare system and this remains a critical objective as a pandemic, of course, is still raging. So if you look at slide 15, the funds allocated to the health sector were for surveillance and epidemiology, establishing laboratories, point of entry management, infection, prevention and control, case management, health-related communications, research and development. And after full implementation, what we expect to see, although already we've seen several of these, 52 federal tertiary health institutions, the availability of PPEs in all federal tertiary institutions, 520 ICU beds, 52 isolation wards with 1,040 beds, 52 molecular laboratories to carry out on the average 150 PCL tests every day. I think it's important to point out that these are federal government interventions. These are not state interventions. Of course, the states were also building up their own capacity, but what I've just described are the federal government's own specific interventions and the results of those interventions. Of course, we know that vaccines are being administered across the 36 states of Nigeria today. And as of 28 September 2021, 4.8 million people or 4.3 percent of the eligible population had received the first dose of vaccines. 1.9 million people or about 1.8 of the eligible population have received the second dose. We've already received and we're also expecting significant quantities of vaccines in the coming weeks and months. So I'll go now to the MSME Survival Fund and as I noted earlier, one of the important things that we consider was rescuing businesses, keeping businesses afloat. And the particular program that was designed for that was designed by the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment and was described as the MSME Survival Fund. If you go to slide 16, if you go to slide 16, this is the layout of the program. Now the programs were designed to create and safeguard existing jobs. So we had the guaranteed off-take scheme, the payroll support scheme, the artisan and transport support scheme, the general MSME grant and then formalization of companies support scheme. The MSME programs had in all as of today supported 1.1 million people and businesses. As follows, direct grants were given for a three-month period to 459 beneficiaries across the country. In other words, salaries of 449,000 people were paid for a three-month period. We had representations from several sectors. For example, teachers, private school teachers, there's an association of private school teachers. They were very interested in ensuring that teachers remained paid during the period. Of course, public school teachers were being paid, but private school teachers also wanted to be paid. So they formed a significant portion of the 459,000 of those who were paid as part of that fund. And these, of course, were persons who then received between 90,000 and 150,000 in salaries for the three-month period. Then 293,000 transport workers and artisans received a one-off grant of 30,000 Naira each. 293,000, these were artisans and transport workers. They received a one-off grant of 30,000 Naira. Then from the MSME general grants, 82,000 businesses also received one-off grants, 82,000 businesses. And then 255,000 enterprises benefited from the CAC Free Registration of Company scheme. This was called the formalization scheme. So what simply happened here was that a person who wanted to register their companies, 255,000 of them were allowed to register those companies free. And so the federal government paid for the registration of those companies. Then we had the agric program. We called it agriculture for food and jobs. The agriculture for food and jobs plan. And this is in slide 17. And this was a very major pillar of the plan because we thought that mass agriculture putting, doing something extra for agriculture would provide jobs and food. So part of that program was the enumeration of farmers and we enumerated 6.39 million farmers and these farmers were geotagged to their land. So today we have accurate records verified by the Ministry of Communications and Digital Technology, accurate records of 6.39 million farmers with their farmlands, actually geotagged. So we know exactly where their farms are, we know exactly where they were. And so far, 363 million passed the first stage of validation and another 2.47 million passed the second stage of validation. Now we're validating them also for and also BVNs. Those who do not have BVNs are getting BVNs and all of that. 320 hectares of land, 320 hectares of land has been cleared across eight states at 40 hectares per state. Now there are several states of course that are involved in the project. The states are Quara, Plateau, Cross River, Edo, Carduna, Aikiti and Ocean states. These are states that require land clearing. Of course many states do not require land clearing and we simply supported those states directly. 347 billion Naira is allocated as loans to farmers across 14 crop value chains, beef production, aquaculture and poultry farming. But so far only 14 billion has been disbursed to commercial banks and even this sum is yet to be utilized by farmers due to the late release for the 2021 wet farming season. And I'll come to that in a moment because it has had some complications especially with the structured loans that we're supposed to get coming from the CBN to the commercial banks. Then we have the fertilizer subsidy program which is a very important and critical part of this food for jobs program because prior what has happened is that fertilizer has always been a problem and paying for fertilizer and all of that has always been a problem and being able to assist farmers. This program was designed and Mr. President approved a program of giving subsidies to farmers for banks of fertilizer to each farmer depending on the size of the farm. But the strategy here was to give the farmer the amount of the subsidy directly in cash paid to their BVN verified account. So each farmer that was going to get a subsidy would have this money paid directly to his BVN verified account. And Mr. President approved the disbursement of the fertilizer subsidy fund to small holder vulnerable farmers in the country. A subsidy of 5.1 billion was paid to 1 million, 13,126 farmers. This is lower than previously reported due to the removal of about 184,000 of them who did not have BVN verified accounts at the time. But the subsidy payment is an evidence-based payment tied to farmer and duration. So a farmer receives four bags of MPK per hectare. So a farmer with five acres or two hectares gets a subsidy of 24,000 Naira paid directly to his account for the eight bags of MPK that will be needed. A farmer who owns one acre or less gets a subsidy of 3,000 Naira and as I said, this is paid directly to the farmers. So that has helped a great deal in ensuring that subsidies actually get to the farmers and they are able to benefit directly from the subsidy. So when they buy, and they can go anywhere, of course, to buy their MPK, which is already available, but rather than relying on sellers or relying on third parties or anybody to provide that subsidy, they already have the subsidy. So when they go and buy, they are already at either 3,000, between 3,000 and 24,000 in credit. The next is the social housing program. Now the social housing program was also designed to create thousands of jobs and boost the local building materials industry. The whole idea was to build 300,000 houses and so far we have over 1,151 hectares of land. This has been made ready for development and this has the capacity to accommodate about 34,550 homes. The program is funded by a mix of resources and I think this is also a point that I'll come back to. It includes financing from the Federal Ministry of Finance under the social investment program, the family homes fund and a loan from the central bank under the economic sustainability plan, which is supposed to be in the order of about 200 billion Naira. Customers have a window of at least 15 years to pay for their homes. The design is to build two-bedroom homes costing not more than 2 million Naira. So if you're going to buy the three-bedroom homes, it will be 3.75 million and 4.25 million for a four-room unit. But the cheapest is a 2 million Naira home and at first, of course, there were very many arguments. It wasn't possible to build a home for 2 million, but we've not only tested it, we've built it. As a matter of fact, Bono State now has 8,000 such units. They are way ahead of others. They built 8,000 units of these homes and the homes are specifically designed to meet the cultural needs of the places where they are built. So in Bono, for example, the way that the houses are structured is completely different on the way that they are structured in Nassarau State, for example. And I think that the Bono State has set an example and shown that it is entirely possible to do this and to build very, very quickly using local raw materials, using local artisans and, of course, doing so at great speed. At the moment also, 4,700 homes have been approved in seven states for financing for commencement in October. Another 5,400 are scheduled for commencement in November of this year. Progress has been much slower than envisaged. There are continuing delays in disbursement of funds between the CBN and the commercial banks. We've had serious delays. Now the debenture agreement for the sum of 200 billion, because we have to go into a debenture agreement with the CBN in order to be able to ensure that these funds were not just dissipated and there will be no possibility of paying back. But of course the CBN alone represents the largest bulk of the financing. But we've signed the debenture agreements in April and, of course, we're still waiting for disbursements to fully commence. Solar electrification program is another limb of this creation of jobs and at the same time adding value to the quality of lives of the people. So the solar electrification scheme, and this is in slide 19, is designed to create several jobs and develop a local solar industry, even as it increases energy access across five million new solar connections. It will include the assembly and manufacturing of components of off-grid solutions to facilitate the growth of the local manufacturing industry, while the use of local content will be encouraged. And we expect that in all, it should create 250,000 new jobs in the energy sector. For funding purposes, the program has been broken to five categories, 57 billion Naira in guarantor projects. In other words, we are asking some of the federal government agencies, the NDPHC, the NNPC, to guarantee certain portions of the whole program. And so far we have guarantees from the NNPC and also from the NDPHC. So those guarantees are worth 57 billion. In effect, the producers, the installers of the solar connections can go ahead and connect 57 billion Naira worth of solar products upon the guarantees of these two agencies. Then there's a 20 billion in small-scale downstream, 20 billion in commercial bank upstream projects. These are all projects supported by the commercial banks, and then 28 billion for state guaranteed projects. At Damawa, Akuaibon states, for example, are guaranteeing their own projects to the tune of about 28 billion, and 15 billion in commercial bank downstream projects. Now when I say a guarantee, of course they are not putting cash on the table, but they are placing guarantees with commercial banks to say that if money is not paid back, if they are not able to get money back, then they, of course, are the primary obligors. Now the way that this works is that each solar connection is not a free gift because it is installed by a private solar company. And what happens is that where a solar connection is made, the recipient of the solar connection also makes payments on a monthly basis. And what we found across the country is that so long as power is steady and power is steady, everyone is required to pay. The rate of default is almost zero. Everybody is prepared to pay so long as there's power. And we had experimented with this previously in several market settings, for example, we experimented with it in the Subongari market, in our area market, where we had thousands of stalls installed with solar power, and every one of them, there's just absolutely no rate of default. In any event, if you default, your connection is cut off. So it's a very effective program, and everyone, and those who are benefited from it are extremely happy with it, and it is also a sustainable program. Unfortunately, again, funds have been very slow in coming. We've had difficulties with accessing most of the funds because, again, as I've said, these are CBN to commercial banks and commercial banks to the private companies that have to do this. Of the $140 billion that we're supposed to receive so far, we've received only $7 billion. That's only $7 billion that has been disbursed, although we have $42 billion worth of transactions have been fully closed and fully deployed, and we're just waiting for that to happen, which will lead to 704,000 connections. If other $46 billion in transactions are in very advanced stages, and that will lead to another 600,000 in connections, we expect that in the next coming weeks or months, we'll be able to move very quickly on the solar connections as the banks get more, as the banks are able to get more confident to be able to give those funds which the CBN is supposed to guarantee. The key challenges, of course, are the problems, as I've said, with disbursements coming from the CBN to the commercial banks and to the users of the funds. Then there's also a risk aversion of public and private financial institutions, particularly for power projects, in addition to a limited knowledge of the off-grid market and its potential. But I think that over time, we're working through this, and I'm very confident that we'll be able to get to a point where everyone is able to deal, is able to have more confidence in the whole process and be sure that their money will come back when they give the money. Lack of access to foreign exchange for the importation of systems and raw materials is also another major problem. Then we have the public works and aviation segments of the plan, and if you go to slide 20, we have all of what is going on in the public works program. About 193 road sections, totaling 3,707 kilometers of roads is going on at the moment. 26,021 Nigerians have been employed in rehabilitation and construction of these roads so far. There's also the construction of 345 kilometers of rural roads, 205 boreholes, and 10 treatment plants to create jobs and develop rural areas. I think it's important to understand that the public works program is also one of those programs that was designed to create jobs in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic to sustain those who, of course, would be unable, for one reason or the other, to handle their lives or to feed themselves during that period, and a lot of benefit was derived from that. As a matter of fact, the Honourable Minister of State for Budget and National Planning went round looking at several of these public works projects and sent back live photographs and videos showing the very tremendous amount of work that had been done and the number of people who had been engaged. So in the 36 states of the FCT, also, already road construction is at 98 percent completion with 204 kilometers completed, 774,000 young people have been engaged by the National Directorate of Employment, the NDE, and in the public works program, that's in the public works program. In aviation, the five billion was allocated for local airlines, for ground handlers and other aviation allied businesses aimed at easing the negative economic effects of the pandemic. The breakdown, I think we have a good account of the breakdown, scheduled operators got $2.84 billion, non-shadowed operators, cargo and private jet services got $944 million, ground operators about $233 billion, in-flight catering services about $233 billion, aviation fuel operators $233 million, and travel agents another $196 million, airport hire also $196 million. What are the outcomes of the plan so far? Of course, if you look at the details, if you look at the full presentation, there's so many details and I'm not going to be able to go into all those details. So I just keep quite a view of the details and then just go to the outcomes of the plan so far. I think it's fair to say that the plan has helped to avoid a much more painful economic challenge and I think that we must commend Mr. President for his foresight and for acting quickly. I think that's the most important part of this, acting very quickly. First of all, in setting up that small committee to assess the damage and then very quickly going on to the establishment of the economic sustainability plan and having a detailed plan with funding and then approving that plan also expeditiously so that we're able to move quickly and but for the speed with which this was done, things would of course have been very, very, very bad and much worse. And I think it enabled us, as we've heard, to get out of the recession in record time and much faster than most economies of the world. As a matter of fact, you will find that most economies of the world were scrambling, trying to find one solution or the other, trying to determine what a fiscal sustainability plan would look like and all of that. But I think that we were able to move very, very quickly under the direction and leadership of Mr. President, are able to put together a plan and act on the plan as quickly as we were able to. Now, slide 12 describes some of the specific outcomes. Revenues of course improved despite all production issues but macro indices are also trending in the right direction today and of course, if you've looked at GDP report, you'll find that definitely things are looking up. Revenues year on year, federation revenues in Q2 2021 are up by 6%, although much lower than projected in the budget due to problems with production, with oil production. We're producing less than our opaque waters and of course I'm sure that when you have the presentation from Ministry of Petroleum, there will also be some additional insights into that, you know, shutdowns or shortings in some of the wells and the various problems of getting them back up have generally tended to reduce our revenues as you will see in the GDP report. Inflation has tended downward over the past five months, falling to about 17% during the second quarter of this year, although food inflation as you know is still very troubling and food production and supply has been affected by security challenges. GDP growth, performance in the second quarter of this year has been a highlight with an increase of 5% year on year, the highest since 2015 and I think that this is certainly worth celebrating. Lower reserves are also improving but it will be much higher of course as we go along and of course the questions around ensuring that we're able to get supply of dollars and again we all have our views on that and I might say a thing or two about that. The, of course the oversubscribed Euro bond this last cycle has helped a great deal also in beefing up our external reserves, however given the record high oil prices, the reserves obviously should do better, you know, and I'm sure that there will, those are issues that will be examined in greater detail. Slide 13 shows the sectors that have rebounded to positive growth, transportation has rebounded to positive growth, 77%, hospitality, 2%, you know, and that's from negative, real estate from 40% down to 4%, trade from about 17% down now to 23%, construction from 40% down to 4% now. I'll just end the discussion of the challenge with, I'll just end this discussion on some of the challenges of implementing the economic sustainability plan and just a quick look at future perspectives on funding. With respect to full implementation of the plan we have seen, you know, of course that inadequate funding has in some ways hampered what could have obviously been a much, much better performance. 500 billion which was budgeted for and which we took from special accounts was essentially the major part of the 2.3 trillion program, the major part of it. Of course CBN interventions also were very helpful but I want to just point out that the 1.2 trillion which is supposed to be structured loans were still very far behind and that's a significant part of the plan. So that has greatly affected what would have been an even better outcome. The last GDP report presented by the Honourable Minister of Finance also highlighted major challenges to the economy, of course unemployment heading for over almost 40% and loss of jobs since 2018, dwindling oil revenues and on account of production, poor foreign investment inflows, both FDI and FBI's, likely due to exchange rate concerns and uncertainty around the reputation of profits and security concerns. Now I think that many of these problems are completely resolvable. I do not think that they constitute any significant, I don't think that they constitute any significant difficulty that we cannot resolve but I think that one of the most important things is that there must be synergy between the fiscal and the monetary authority. That is absolutely crucial. We must be able to deal with the synergy, we must handle that synergy between the monetary authority, the CBN and the fiscal side. And it appears that there is competition between the, especially on the fiscal side. If you look at some of the interventions, you will find that those interventions, there are interventions that should be managed by ministries. So the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment should handle MSME interventions and those kinds of interventions and we should know what the CBN is doing. In other words, if the CBN is going to intervene in the MSME sector, it should be with the full cooperation and concern of the Ministry of Industry. If they are going to intervene in our culture, it should be with full concern. So that synergy is absolutely important. The reason why it's important, aside from the fact that you cannot plan an economy in any other way, the more important thing is that sometimes you will get people who are benefiting more than once because we simply have no line of sight to what's going on on one side. The CBN doesn't know what we are doing, they don't know what, they don't know what, we don't know what they are doing. So I think that is important. That synergy is absolutely important and as for the exchange rate, I think we need to move our rates to a more reflective market, as reflective of market as possible. This in my own respectful view is the only way to improve supply. We can't get new dollars into the system where the exchange rate is artificially low and everyone knows by how much our reserves can grow. So I'm convinced that the demand management strategy currently being adopted by the CBN we need to rethink and that's just my view. But anyway, all those are issues I'm sure that when the CBN governor has time to address, we'll be able to address him for. So let me say that on the whole, we have been able to weather the storm of a very, very serious economic challenge and I think that that is largely on account of the stable and steady leadership that we received from Mr. President. I think that if you panic, if Mr. President had panicked in that period, would have had a lot of difficulties. In fact, perhaps it would be in a much, much worse situation and I think that he deserves all the commendation for providing that steady hand when that was required. As I said all told, I think that we are at a point in economic history where everything is possible and I'm completely convinced that even the challenges that we see today are challenges that can be resolved very, very easily so long as we're all prepared to work together towards the same objectives. Thank you very much.


Item Number – SCP-505 Object Class – Keter Special Containment Procedures – SCP-505 is contained in a 50m x 40m x 10m room at site – SCP-505's containment area is to be sealed, other than one secure airlock, and a series of pipes allowing transport of SCP-505-1 to storage tanks, in the event of SCP-505-1 reaching levels in which it poses a danger to containment. Sprayers for 4MNAOH are to be available throughout SCP-505's containment area and the rest of site to combat a containment breach. In the event of a spill of SCP-505-1, the affected area should immediately be covered with an absorbent material. Commercial blotting paper is currently standard for this purpose and doused with alcohol or acetone if NAOH is not immediately available. NAOH immersion is the method of choice for SCP-505-1 containment, followed by incineration of affected material, if practicable. There are currently instances of SCP-505-1 points of secondary contamination outside SCP-505's primary containment area. Containment in these areas is variable, but efforts have been made to make procedures as similar to those of the primary site, if possible, of the secondary contamination zones, that are unable to be fully contained at this time, resulting in the spread of SCP-505-1 throughout the environment. These sites are to be monitored at all times, and countermeasure development is of the highest priority. Description SCP-505 is a model of the Faber-Castell Fountain Pen, produced in 2001. For documentation of its acquisition by the Foundation, see Addendum 505-2. It is identical in all respects to a standard fountain pen, apart from its association with SCP-505-1. SCP-505-1 is the black ink produced by SCP-505, which exhibits the property of self-replication. SCP-505-1 spreads at a variable rate. Affected by the substance it comes into contact with, and the amount of SCP-505-1 present. Quantities of SCP-505-1 have been shown to increase at rates between 0.5 and 540 mL per second. Standard ink removing chemicals are able to partially remove SCP-505-1 and inhibit its spread. However, sodium hydroxide is necessary to remove SCP-505-1 contamination completely, and has shown to be ineffective in environments with particularly high SCP-505-1 concentrations. Fortunately, the growth rate of SCP-505-1 appears to be inversely proportional to its quantity at high concentrations. Whilst the observed effects of this are negligible in most cases, this inverse growth phenomenon provides the only explanation for the partial containment of SCP-505-1, despite a number of cases of large-scale environmental contamination, which were projected to otherwise lead to an NK class end-of-the-world scenario. Whilst SCP-505-1 exhibits no unusual properties other than its constant spread and partial resistance to removal, it nonetheless poses serious difficulties for control. SCP-505-1 will flow across non-absorbent surfaces and pass through porous surfaces in an identical fashion to normal ink. All liquid or solid objects or beings in contact with SCP-505-1 will be contaminated. SCP-505-1 will still adhere to non-porous surfaces such as metals, but newly produced SCP-505-1 will constantly flow off. Corpse metals are thus catalysts for SCP-505-1's spread, and all SCP-505-1 contamination should be covered in porous materials, such as blotting paper for this reason. It is not possible to permanently contain SCP-505-1 in a non-porous container, as said container's contents will gradually increase in quantity, leading to increased pressure and subsequent rupture. All containers being used to contain SCP-505-1 must, therefore, be drained periodically to prevent a containment breach. SCP-505-1's effects on its environment are identical to those of an equivalent quantity of standard fountain pen ink. SCP-505-1 exposure will inevitably lead to the death of living organisms. Plant matter will be killed due to inhibition of photosynthesis, whereas animals will be killed due to chemical poisoning. Between humans and other mammals, SCP-505-1 contact will most likely be via the skin, where it will spread until it reaches an orifice or a break in the skin and subsequently enter the vascular system through mucous membranes. SCP-505-1 will spread through the vasculature and have catastrophic effects on all organ systems it reaches, as it continuously replicates and is unable to be excreted by the urinary system. Cause of death is generally multiple organ failure, although in most cases affected individuals will be terminated and decontaminated prior to this. For containment procedures in these instances, see Addendum 5051. SCP-505-1 also has an increased rate of spread through non-viscous fluids, such as water, as would be expected of normal ink. Any contamination of the water table with SCP-505-1 must be prevented at all costs, due to the potential for an NK class end-of-the-world scenario. It is unknown whether SCP-505-1's aforementioned property of an inversely proportional rate of spread will manifest in fluids, as experimentation with such high quantities of SCP-505-1 is strictly forbidden. Thus, any environmental SCP-505-1 contamination in water sources must be met with immediate damning and drainage into storage tanks of all affected areas. Addendum 5051. Procedures for dealing with SCP-505-1 contamination in humans. Administration of multiple dose-activated charcoal has been shown to slow the progress of SCP-505-1 contamination in humans, but is unable to halt the process. The only known methods of treatment for SCP-505-1 contamination in humans are by immediate excision of the affected area, or continuous application of ethanol to an affected skin region. Topical ethanol treatment will not prevent the affected individual from transmitting SCP-505-1 to other surfaces, and is thus highly discouraged, except in the cases of essential personnel, in which case, containment procedures must be observed. As in all other sites of secondary SCP-505-1 contamination, in theory, excision or amputation of affected areas would be the gold standard for treatment, but contamination of surgical instruments and personnel remains a problem. Therefore, all cases of SCP-505-1 contamination in humans other than essential personnel should be dealt with by termination, followed by standard procedure of 4MNAOH immersion and incineration of the remains. Addendum 505-2, SCP-505 Retrieval History SCP-505 was acquired by the Foundation from the town of Red in Oman, when the town in question was quarantined by the Omani government, due to reports of a black fluid beginning to seep out from the town's post office, and causing the deaths of a number of its inhabitants. Fortuitously, the arid and remote location of the incident prevented wide-scale environmental contamination of SCP-505-1. The Foundation retrieved SCP-505-1 with f***** casualties. No other anomalous properties of the town's post office or the town itself were detected. It was deemed necessary to terminate f***** civilians who were deemed likely to be contaminated. The incident was reported as a non-extranormal chemical spill. Lesson complete. If you missed the previous orientation, go watch SCP-504, Critical Tomatoes, right now. Or for the complete course, watch this playlist.


CV-31 currently we're tasked with organizing to a few companies our headquarters our support and our combat logistics company Combat logistics made up of motor T engineers and LS support company supply and maintenance And so basically cover down on all the all the logistics support for the Marine Expeditionary Unit And we're permanently attached to 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, and then we don't go back to home station We're permanently stationed here provide all the combat logistics support for the battalion landing team And then some aviation ground support for the aviation on that element the Marines that are stationed here at Camp Hanson with a COB-31 contribute large the motor T operators Engineer equipment operators also have a lot of utilities Marines and we have a heavy landing support footprint that supports all the HSTs and the at beach and port operations We support the humanitarian aid disaster response mission and also the non-combatant evacuation operation mission You're not going to be able to predict natural disasters or typhoons or humanitarian aid disaster response missions or a neo response So we're trained and equipped to always be able to respond to those at a moment's notice, and that's the unique capability we bring


Right, thanks all and good morning So I'll present today a very general overview of the housing landscape for people with disability as it is today And what we might expect it to look during and after the NDIS So there will be those two parts of the presentation So I'll start with the sort of background just sort of looking at the current landscape and where people with disability live today So there are 4.2 million Australians with a disability Including about 1.3 million who are with a severe or profound disability Which means that it's a disability that significantly affects their day-to-day lives So where do those people live before I sort of present some of the statistics about their housing tenures and living arrangements I'd like to talk about three processes that affected the the landscape as it is today The first one is the institutionalization in the last three or four decades There's been a gradual process of closing down institutions where people with mostly intellectual disability and also psychiatric Disabilities have been living In 1995 there were still about 8,000 people with disability living in institutions today We're talking about something around 2,000 people. So it's still a substantial number But it's been a gradual change and that that obviously had affected the what you know the situation Another Second process that has been happening has been the increase in the life expectancy of people with disability Over the last century or so. I think that it's changing. It's different for every group and type of disability But for for example for people with intellectual disability in 1930 the average life Expectancy would have been around 20 whereas today it's around 60 or more than 60 So it's still well below the population average But it's a major change and it has significant Implications on everything including housing And I'll talk about that in the context of aging carers as well and Finally the third process which is related to not just to people with disability But obviously affects them significantly is the housing affordability crisis in Australia. So since about the mid 1980s the cost of housing as rose Well and above inflation and that affects particularly low-income households and people with disability with low participation rates in paid employment and of overall lower income have been affected by the housing affordability crisis probably more So than any other group in society So we'll move on to the next slide please so this is just a table taken from ABS data that compares housing tenures of people with disability and People without a disability in Australia. I think the first it's it's quite a deceptive Table or figure because if you look at the first Left column owner without a mortgage you'd see that people with disability are the rates are twice as high As for people without a disability and that reflects basically the fact that most people with disabilities leave or not most But many people with disability leave with a parent carer and many of them leave with aging parent carers who are outright owners So before we go celebrate high levels of owner occupation. We need to think about the context for that But if we look at the the other columns the public renter column That means that people living in social housing people with disability are significantly overrepresented in that housing tenure and I'll provide some more statistics around that and Private rental in contact in in contrast people with disability are underrepresented So it's very hard for people with disability to access private renter rental because of the affordability Challenge as well as other challenges that I'll talk about later I'll move on to the next slide where I'll talk specifically about people with disability living with with carers and particularly with elderly carers So around Australia we are talking about close to a hundred thousand people with disability We are over 25 who live with a parent carer now There are a few issues around that firstly why why do we have that situation happen for most Australians? 25 is about the average age where people are expected to move out of their parents home It's seen I guess in our society in our culture It's seen as a major step in the transition from childhood to adulthood and from I guess from dependency into independence For people with disability. It's very hard to make that transition Part of that until today has been the very limited access to support so to have that support to to live independently Those options just weren't there and they're still not there and hopefully they will be there under the NDIS So that would allow some of those transitions, but another barrier has been access to housing So moving out of the parents home you need to access your own housing and that's again the challenge of affordability Which the NDIS won't in itself solve and that's where That's what we're going to talk about today. How we do we solve that second barrier So one of the issues around that is that it's there's a normative issues there Do do we expect people to move out of their home when they're 25? Is that something that we need to expect everyone to and is that a choice that people make? but another question there is about I guess it's a more Pragmatic question is about aging carers the parents are not going to be there forever and what we're seeing today is when the parents die They are just no longer able to care for their son or daughter The son or daughter have to transition into supported accommodation Often under a situation of crisis That's not good for them as individuals and it's not good for the system Which is becoming increasingly crisis driven and it's affecting Everyone who already lives in that system of first shade supported accommodation and I'll talk a little bit about that as well All right, I'll move on to The shed supported accommodation system so about 20,000 people with disability live in government funders supported accommodation Most of them are people with intellectual disability about 70 to 75 percent I have another graph in the next slide which shows sort of the distributions most of those people would live in group homes Group homes are arrangements where you've got about between four to six people with a disability Living in the same house with a roster of staff who take a system with their daily living We still have as I said about 2,000 people living in large institutions and other types of congregate facilities And that's only the government funded accommodation There are other types of private facilities which are congregate facilities where people with disability leave There are a few issues with this system of shed supported accommodation One of it is that there's not enough of it, especially the group homes The waiting lists for group homes are extremely long It's completely crisis driven in terms of who gets access into it If you're not in the crisis if your parents if you if you're living with your parents Then you're not in crisis or if you you have to basically be in I Guess in risk of homelessness to enter some of those places And I guess flowing for that because of the unmet need and because of the crisis driven allocation system People have very limited choice about where they live in shed supported accommodation so they have no choice who they live with and where they live and Now the second point there about daily living lack of choice in daily living. I'm generalizing here I think some of the group homes are a fantastic great staff and Really working with their residents in a in a wonderful way, but some of those places are run in a sort of Institutional like model where people have very limited choice on very basic decisions such as what they lead for breakfast or where they're going out In the evening So that's part of the shared accommodation system and part of the problem that the NDIS will be trying will try to solve And I've mentioned just another last point there I mentioned the history of institutions. It's not a history. It's still on today There's still two thousand people living in institutions. There's a long history That's well documented of abuse neglecting institutions now I acknowledge that institutions today are not what they were 10 or 20 years ago But there's a real problem in in congregating large amounts of people with disability in a facility like that and there are some real tensions there about the choices that Families make about institutions and what the evidence shows about the reality in those institutions and the policy which is explicitly in favor of community living rather than segregated living now there are other people with disability who Experience very unstable and inappropriate forms of housing We have a very large group of people who are young people under 65 who live in nursing home or HKF facilities Which is considered inappropriate? Including approximately 700 under the age of 50 and homelessness people with disability particularly people with psychiatric disability but not only are highly represented among the population of homeless services users or homeless people in 2013 about 50% of all users of homelessness services were also in recipients recipients of the disability support pension and I think that Underestimates their actual proportion So homelessness is a real issue for people with disability particularly psychiatric So as I said more more and more people would be expected to move into independent living and I'll talk a bit more about what we would like to see Under the NDIS. I'll just want to talk specifically about private renter and social housing and to higher housing tenures where We might expect to see people housed so in private rental there are a few issues in terms of access into private rental First affordability which I've already mentioned It's very hard to afford private rental when you're under disability support pension when that's your major source of income But beyond that on top of that the housing stock itself is just not accessible for people with physical disabilities and because it's rental because it's There's no security of tenure there then it's very difficult to modify the stock You can't get a grant to modify a rental unit that you don't know if you're going to stay there more than a year or two and There's no guarantee that you'll stay there more than a year or two So there are barriers to to modifying the existing stock But even when there is stock which is affordable and accessible the evidence shows that In terms of for example affordable stock is actually occupied by higher income tenants And that's just because the way that real estate markets work. They always prefer people who have higher income. They're I guess safer tenants So that's a level of disadvantage as well as in some cases just pure discrimination of people with disability in the private rental sector so all those barriers mean access to private rental is quite difficult and We will probably need to think of ways to resolve that So social housing in in the absence of or with the difficulty to access private rental more many people with disabilities a very large proportion of them have to move into social housing as sort of the last alternative We have about 160 households in Social housing across Australia who have a member with a disability. That's about 40 percent of all households in social housing If you look at the proportions about 6.1 percent of all people with disability Compared to about 1.5 of all those without a disability Again like with like I said about shared supportive accommodation the first problem is that there's not enough of it There's just not enough social housing for all people with disability who need it and I get again flowing from that that means that there is no choice That means that when you apply for social housing for public housing and you wait a few years on the waiting list And when you finally offered a placement, it's basically basically a take it or leave it proposition So there's no choice about where you leave And there are some real consequences for people that might mean that they have to move away from their sort of natural support Circle from their family and the people who give them support the day require in a quite a significant way So so that's in a very I guess Just touching on some of the issues around social housing Next slide, please. I want to move on now to talk about the NDIS and how this is going to change What we've just saw which was sort of an overview of the existing landscape so I want to highlight three points about how I think or how researchers in the field think that The NDIS is going to impact the demand for housing as well as supply for housing supply offer housing first Just to acknowledge the NDIS will not cover. I mean it does cover in theory all Australians with a disability, but Those who will receive I guess ongoing long term supports. It's a smaller group It's a large group four hundred thousand people, but it doesn't cover all those I mentioned earlier with Severe and profound disability, which is about one point three million But four hundred thousand people is a very significant group and there will be more funding available for those people. So the NDIS Effectively doubles expenditure on those on that target group Now in terms of how the NDIS is structured it's going to be it's very different to what we've seen today So until today we've seen block funding for sort of shared supported accommodation things like group homes are funded as A service now it's going to be under the NDIS quite different. So individuals will have their own funding now The implications in terms of housing is that the funding is portable an Individual can take their funding package with them wherever they leave So that allows all sorts of housing transitions people can move if they can find the housing They can move with their supports and I'll I'll talk about some of the transitions that we might expect to see and Finally just before that finally the last point The NDIS does recognize independent living as something that they would like to see and if Supports that are required to live independently are considered by the NDIS as reasonable and necessary They will provide it so they will enable people to move out to live independently and there may be some I guess debates about which supports are Reasonable and necessary, but I guess that's sort of the I guess the principle so I think this is a Figure that sort of tries to summarize What I think are the three sort of major pathways that we're going to see sort of facilitated by the NDIS Three types of housing transitions First we'll see Individuals who live now will live with their parents adults with a disability living with parents will move into independent living Being provided support by the NDIS We'll also see people who now live in in specialist housing in shared supported accommodations or Institutions and that there might be two sort of pathways from there Some of them will actually move back with their parents because they'll have more support to live with their families Some of them would move again to independent living now independent living doesn't mean that they live on their own and receive no support It means that they might live on their own or sharing with others But also we'll receive whatever supports they need to retain that housing But it means that it's in private housing or mainstream housing rather than private either private or social housing So those are the three types of transitions and there's some historical presidents for that if we look at Support and choice in Victoria. That was a kind of Victoria's pilot program for individualized funding so quite similar in terms of the structuring of the funding to the NDIS and There were 920 participants who received individualized funding Fifty of them indeed moved from shared supported accommodation and you can see in those two figures where they moved to and That's I think that's something that we might expect something not very different from this under the NDIS. So In terms of living arrangements, you'd see most people moved into shared housing and most of those 50 who moved and A smaller proportion about 23 percent moved on their own to leave alone And there was a proportion of about 19 people who moved from shared accommodation back with their families In terms of the housing tenures and the housing arrangements Private rental was a relatively small proportion of those people about 19% Much larger proportion probably twice than that moved into public housing as well as other types of housing like aged care and sort of More innovative models like key ring models and maybe some models we might hear about today And as I mentioned some move it back with a family and in most cases that would be housing that's owned or In few cases rented and public housing Getting closer to summing things up and just before kind of talking about unmet need for housing under the NDIS What are the housing needs of people with this ability if we want to see those transitions happening into independent living particularly? What sort of housing would we need? Affordable housing that's that's a given Physically accessible housing for people with physical disabilities We're located housing and by where located I mean two things one that it's well located in proximity to services and Transport and amenities, but also on a more individual level closer to people's support networks if people leave too far away from their Sort of natural Informal support network that means the formal supports that they require the paid supports are much higher So well located house housing will save a lot of money for for the NDIS on support Housing needs to be suitable in terms of the mix of dwellings the number of bedrooms for example, there's a high proportion of Single-person households and want people with disabilities, so you need to think about how you design the mix of dwellings Housing needs to be secure and mean not just safety or physical safety, but also security of tenure so the kind of Security or insecurity in private rental is just not going to work for people who require Say for example home modifications that's not going to work for them so we need secure housing and We need housing that's integrated in the community rather than segregated housing because that's part of the vision of independent living and the NDIS that's the underlying principle there. Do we have all that housing out there? Probably not The NDIS estimates between unmet need for housing for between 80,000 to 120,000 potential NDIS participants now these figures are based on a very sort of rough estimate I think there needs to be much more research into that figure, but that's I think Sort of I guess the ballpark So that's the impact on demand, but what's the impact on supply? The NDIS said initially that they will not take responsibility for housing It's not their role, but they have indicated that they will invest capital funds in quite a substantial amount in Catalyzing new housing supplies. So almost half a bill more than half a billion dollars a year Into into housing into new supply of housing now We are all awaiting The NDIS discussion paper or housing discussion paper that has been promised for a while and hopefully that would clarify How that funding is going to be structured and how that might work and that would clarify a lot of issues but I guess some of the Hints that have been thrown here and there are that it might be structured a bit like Enra's with some lessons from Enra's Enra's is the national rental affordability scheme that has been Facilitating a new supply of affordable housing in recent years The NDIA itself the NDIS authority will not own housing But it and it will not borrow funds to to build housing So we will partner with other I guess stakeholders to do that to get funds For every dollar that the NDIS intends to spend in capital They expect to see leverage of about two to three dollars from other sources and those sources are probably going to be the community sectors and families of people with disability Will just provide money private finance as well as state and local governments And I think the the aim there is to try to to get land from from governments So that would significantly reduce the cost of building new housing So so that that's sort of I guess some of the principles there, but again, we're waiting to see what's What's the word coming out of the NDIA very soon? Hopefully So next slide, please. It's Just before I finish a few of the tensions that I think we should I think they might come up in the discussion today I'll just sort of touch upon those issues The expectation for leverage there's some questions about equity there So if you expect families to put in money, what about those families who don't have that money? There's going to be a real tension around And the IS is all about control and choice for participants But when they go out there and seek for housing assistance where it's as I said, it's a sort of take it or leave it proposition There's going to be a real tension there. How do you really achieve a choice and control in that sort of context? And I guess the third very contentious issue is Again, I mentioned the need for integrated housing in the community and there's some real debate in the community around what is integrated housing and Where the cluster type housing and congregate facilities are legitimate options are integrated housing in the community some parents groups say that this is not a segregated community, but an intentional community and But some of the research evidence is very much against those types of facilities. So there's a real debate And there's it's going to be difficult. I guess to there is there is a need for a real Yes, policy direction around that. What is the kind of housing that we'd like to see and what is legitimate? Types of housing that government would invest money into So just my last slide final notes a full scheme the NDIS will cause historically Unprecedented boost in demand for housing that is affordable accessible and well located But also a catalyst for new supply of such housing So it's revision with revolutionizing the disability sector and I guess it's now up to the housing sector to to rise up to the challenge and Hopefully today we'll have some good insight on how we can do this That's it


In their day one convective outlook for July 14th, 2010, forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center highlighted sections of the upper Midwest, namely Southeastern Minnesota, a bunch of Wisconsin and Northeast Iowa, as having a moderate risk of severe weather. Now surrounding this area of moderate risk was a larger area with a slight risk of severe weather. So what helped SPC forecasters hone in on this general area as being at risk for severe thunderstorms? Well, the synoptic scale weather pattern of the big picture was a big help, and in this case an approaching 500 millibar shortwave trough was a big part of that. If we look at the 12Z analysis of surface-based cape and sin on this date, we can see that the environment at that time was not very conducive to strong updrafts in the region highlighted by SPC as having the moderate risk for severe weather. There was very, very strong sin. The dark blue shading here means that sin was at least 100 joules per kilogram in magnitude, and there wasn't very much cape there as well, even though there was very high cape values off to the southwest over the plains. But if we want to dial in at a single location to get a more specific idea of the environment, we can look at the sounding from 12Z at Minneapolis, and you can see that there is a layer of sin. It's shaded in yellow here, and it extends from about 925 millibars all the way up above 700 millibars. And the exact magnitude here is minus 329 joules per kilogram. So that's really, really strong inhibition, and it would take herculean lift to overcome that. That's just not going to happen. So the environment needs to change in order for severe weather or severe thunderstorms to develop. And throughout the day, the environment did change, and it did become more favorable for thunderstorms. And in part, that's because as the day progressed, it warmed up, and warming the surface is one way we can reduce convective inhibition, but an approaching 500 millibar shortwave trough also provided a lot of help. If we look at the six-hour NAMM forecast for 500 millibar heights and vorticity, we can see a closed low with a strong Vortmax located near the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border. But this Vortmax here is pretty much too far north to really create divergence in the risk area, which is farther to the southeast here over Minnesota and Wisconsin. But if you note that trailing around the southern periphery of the trough, there's this elongated lobe of vorticity over North Dakota. There's also some weak Vortmaxes over Minnesota. Those weaker Vortmaxes around the southern edge of the trough could create some divergence over the risk area, and that synoptic-scale upward motion over Minnesota and Wisconsin during the afternoon did help prime the atmosphere for severe thunderstorms. Now to confirm the forecast for upward motion anyway, here's the NAMM forecast for 700 millibar heights, relative humidity, and omega. Now you may remember that omega is a way to measure vertical motion, and the brown contours in this, but looks like a jumbled mess over Minnesota, that indicates negative values of omega, and those correspond to upward motion. The values here were as much as about minus 15 microbars per second, and that's about 15 centimeters per second of upward motion. That's not very fast upward motion in the scheme of things, certainly compared to the speedy updrafts of thunderstorms. But these magnitudes of upward motion are fairly indicative of the upward motion that can be caused by diversions ahead of approaching Vortmaxes. The cooling that was induced by this upward motion helped prime the atmosphere for severe thunderstorms by reducing syn and boosting cape. And by 19z, we can see that the environment had changed quite a bit. You can see that over much of southern Minnesota, syn had been greatly reduced, and down to less than 25 joules per kilogram. So syn was now weak, and cape had skyrocketed over the region. There were several thousand joules per kilogram of cape, so there was a much greater potential for strong updrafts. And some of that change came from the fact that there was surface warming during the day that helped to reduce syn and boost cape as well. But lapse rates in the middle troposphere were changing too, thanks to that cooling aloft from the upward motion and from falling heights ahead of that trough. To get a better feel for the changes in the lapse rates, we can look at the lapse rate tendencies during the afternoon. Now this covers the six hour period leading up to 18z, and you can see these positive values across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin showing that lapse rates were increasing by as much as two degrees Celsius per kilometer in that six hour period. And then that impact of those increasing lapse rates is that lapse rates in the mid levels had become quite steep over that region. So these are the lapse rates from 700 to 500 millibars at 18z, and the shaded areas are lapse rates greater than 8 degrees Celsius per kilometer. That's nearing the dry adiabatic lapse rate. So those are steep lapse rates across the moderate risk area. And there was also a pretty significant area of steep lapse rates across northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota as well, where lapse rates were nearing 8 degrees Celsius per kilometer or even more. Those lapse rates in that region were benefited by the pocket of cold air in the mid levels near the core of that 500 millibar trough. On the 12 hour 500 millibar height tendency map, we can see the falling heights just ahead of the trough in the 12 hours leading up to 21z. You can see the height falls marked by the blue dashed contours here and the even greater height falls that are shaded in blue. And those falling heights helped to steep in those mid level lapse rates and make them destabilize that region as the lapse rates in the mid levels got closer to dry adiabatic lapse rates. So what was the end result of this shortwave trough priming the atmosphere for deep moist convection? Well, here's the 21z composite of radar reflectivity. You can see several clusters of thunderstorms in the region. A couple of clusters over Wisconsin had been ongoing for a couple hours by this point. But a new convection was developing back over northern Minnesota as well, where those steep lapse rates were underneath that mid level pocket of cold air. But furthermore, this 500 millibar trough also had a pretty nice mid level jet with it. You can see the fast winds on the southern flank of the trough on this 18z 500 millibar analysis. And winds at the core of that jet were near 70 knots or above 70 knots. So that's a strong mid level jet. And the presence of that mid level jet helps to increase the magnitude of vertical wind shear in the layer between the surface and six kilometers. That favors organized sustained thunderstorms. And in fact, on the 19z image of radar reflectivity, you can see some discrete thunderstorms in southeast Minnesota. And those were actually supercell thunderstorms that were rotating, and they lasted quite a while. And they actually congealed into the line of thunderstorms that we saw previously on the 21z image of reflectivity. So these thunderstorms were sustained. They lasted quite a period of time. Hopefully this example does give you a good idea of how features at 500 millibar can prime the atmosphere for deep moist convection. But the details of exactly where these thunderstorms set up are determined more by surface boundaries. And we'll address that later.


Hi and welcome to the session. I am Priyanka and let us do the following question together. It says let A is equal to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Which of the following statements are incorrect and why? So first of all we need to tell which of the statements are incorrect and then we need to justify our answers. These are the 11 parts of the question which are given to us and we need to mention whether they are correct or incorrect one by one. But before proceeding on with the solution we can see very different symbols coming out here. Now we must know what does this symbol means and what does this symbol means? They are two different symbols. This is symbol of is a subset of. So if you want to say that yes this is a subset of this then we write the names of the two sets and then insert this sign between them. This means it is a symbol of belongs to, belongs to means that yes this element belongs to this set. Now here we are talking about two sets and between two sets only we can use this symbol and in this we use it between an element and a set. So belongs to is always between an element and a set and we use this symbol between two sets only. So the knowledge of these symbols are the key ideas we are going to use in order to proceed on with our solution. So let us start with our first part. Now it says 3 comma 4 is a subset of A. Now we need to tell whether this statement is a correct statement or not. Since 3 does not belongs, this symbol means it does not belongs to. Since we know 3 does not belongs to A and 4 does not belongs to A we can say that this statement is incorrect. We see that 3 and 4 is an element of A. If we carefully analyze the set which is given to us 3 comma 4 embraces in curly brackets is one of the element. They are not two elements. So we can write that 3 and 4 separately are not elements of A. So this statement is an incorrect statement. Proceeding on to the next part. Now here we are. Now tell whether 3 comma 4 belongs to A or not. Now we know that 3, 4 is an element of A. This is an element and this is a set. So we can have a sign belongs to between an element and a set and since it is fulfilling this criteria. So we can write that this is a correct statement. So we observe that 3, 4 is an element of the given set that is A and hence we can have belongs to sign between them. Proceeding on to the third part. Now here we have 3, 4 that is an element is a subset of A. Now we know that 3, 4 is an element of A. So that means 3 comma 4 belongs to A and this is hence a subset of A also. That is the element embraces becomes a subset of A. Here it is a set and this is also a set. It is embraces if you carefully analyze. So the answer will be that this is a correct statement. Proceeding on to the next one. Now we are given that 1 is a, 1 belongs to A. Now we know that 1 is an element and A is a set. So this element belongs to this set or not. Yes, it is true that 1 belongs to A. So we simply write that this is again a correct statement which is given to us. Proceeding on with the fifth part. Now here 1 is a subset of A but 1 is not a set. It's just an element. So that means we cannot have a sign which means that it is a subset. It belongs to A but it is not a subset of A because it is not a set. 1 is a not a set. It is an element of A. So that means this is an incorrect statement. Proceeding on further to the sixth part. We are given 1, 2, 5 is a subset of A. Now we know that 1 is an element that belongs to A. 2 belongs to A as well as 5 also belongs to A as these all are elements which are present in A also. So set A contains all these elements and hence it is in braces. So that means it is a set. A is also a set. So that means we can have a subset sign between it. So that means this is a correct statement. Proceeding on to the next part. Seventh part. It says 1, 2, 5 belongs to A. The elements of 1, 2, 5 that is the element of this set belongs to A but set containing all these elements do not belong to A. This is a set and this is also a set. An element can belong to a set not a set to a set. So instead of this sign belongs to we should have a sign which says it is a subset. So that means this is an incorrect statement which is given to us as an element can only belong to a set. Proceeding on further to the eighth part we have 1, 2, 3 these are the elements of the set is a subset of A but 3 is does not belongs to set A. Since 1 of the elements of this set does not belongs to the other set. So that means it is not a subset and hence we can write that this is an incorrect statement as 3 does not belongs to A and 3 is a part of this set. Hence this set is not a subset of set A. Proceeding on further to the ninth part, 5 belongs to A. 5 is not shown to be an element of A but we know that it is a subset of every set and this sign means belongs to and not the subset. Hence it is an incorrect statement. Proceeding on further to the tenth part it says 5 is a subset of A. As we know that 5 is a subset of every set thus this means that this is a correct statement. Proceeding on further to the last and final part it says 5 in braces is a subset of A. But as we know from one of the points above 5 does not belongs to A until and unless an element does not belongs to the other set it cannot form to be an subset and this is 5 is in braces so that means this has become into a set in between two sets. We can have the subset sign but since 5 does not belongs to A that means this is an incorrect statement. So in end we can write the answer as that statements which are incorrect the first part the fifth part the seventh eighth ninth and the eleventh part right. So this completes the entire question which was given to us I hope you enjoyed the session and now can tell whether a statement is correct or incorrect giving reasons also. Bye for now.


Yeah, it's kind of crazy because it kicks it up better. I can't remember. I'm not sure we're so close. Kate used to work in that building right there. Yeah. I hope there's probably no one else in the big city. Because I know. Tall buildings everywhere, going to the Christ, we never know. Pringle. Christ Kindle Market. Yeah, Christ Kindle Market. Christ, what do you call it? What do you call it? It's basically a market downtown Denver where they have a lot of things you can buy, good food, dancing, live music. It's amazing.  What? Smoked salmon. Before we get to that, bottom right hand corner, you may notice something new. Bottom right hand corner on your screen, if you're watching in horizontal or landscape mode on your phone or on a desktop or on an iPad. You'll see a little mug shot of me right here. Hey, that's me. If you hover your mouse over that, a thing will pop up where you can subscribe to the channel automatically like that, real easy. So anyway, it's brand new. It only took me 600 vlogs to get that thing on there. I just was putting it off and putting it off. And finally I just got it done. You got it done. Today on Thanksgiving break. So anyway, bottom right hand corner, check it out. You'll see a good looking man. A little break from the dancing.  Oh man, if you live in Denver, you gotta come check this out on a wrap-a-ho. It's the kind of vlog I like to film. Nice and concise, filmed everything you just watched in the last hour and 45 minutes. That's all we're trying to do here. Tell a short little story every day on the VLOG. Happy advent everybody. Seek beauty, work hard, love each other. See you tomorrow.