Comparative teaching methodologies This is my teaching experience so Elle will tell it in the form of a story. In 2011, Elle set for my advanced level final exams and then applied for a post of temporary teacher at a school in an area called date. Beginning of 2012, Elle traveled to date from Harare to begin what Elle call a character building turmoil. I was an inexperienced 20 year old girl who was about to take on a class that would be sitting for its final exam come to the end of that year, with half the class being my former primary school classmates and the other half not thinking much of me. My experience. So here Elle was, in a role in remote school, teaching a class of 40 students with no teaching guidelines except for my own teaching perceptions and learning experience. My first challenge was to assert my authority, goals, and responsibility. I was also faced with the challenge to establish confidence and highest team in each one of the students before Elle could be able to help them build on the little English they had and perfected. I was fully aware that my mere presence in a position of being their teacher aroused a lot of feelings within them that would hinder their learning process. Finally, Elle had the greatest hurdles of the Zimbabwean education system which is very conservative to the British curriculum than the general environment and livelihood of my students, meaning to say Elle was not only tasked to identify and impart knowledge, skills, motivation and trained needs of students but also the resources and features of the educational context during the learning process. Building confidence. Once in class, Elle had to determine their academic level so Elle asked them each to go and write about their dream profession once they complete their studies. The following day, Elle had 40 double sheet papers and 99% of the class aspired to be game rangers. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the job but understand that date is the main growth point in the Hwange National Park, one of the biggest game reserves in Zimbabwe, so game rangers are all that they saw and knew about. That extent of lack of exposure was baffling, at least to me. So, on Friday of the same week, Elle asked my former primary school headmaster who is now working for the painted hunting dogs conservative to come and give a talk about the pros and cons of being a game ranger. The following Friday after that, Elle invited my former classmates who were free to come over and give talks as well. Some had already started at university and some already had stable careers. This exercise did not only enlighten me on the mindsets of my students but that of the community too. It, however, helped me build a long standing rapport with my students as most of them changed their attitude toward me and toward their schoolwork and motivated them to do better. Till this day, Elle do not know what teaching method that was but Elle got the idea from my career guidance Expo which was given back at my high school. The importance of communication I now had a group of 20 year olds and 16 year olds who were fully motivated and inspired. They were to sit for their final Zimbabwe school examinations council English language examination in October of that year but they were adamant that they had to speak in English as part of the preparation for their exam and as part of the English language learning process. They argued that the council only tested for their written English so why should they try speaking it. With that, Elle had to ask the school administration to set a new rule that English was the mode of communication at school and the use of vernacular on school grounds as a punishable offense. In my classes Elle dedicated the first 10 minutes of my lessons to the impromptu speech by students using a newly learned word. The students found it ridiculous at first so Elle put a prize on the best speech and they started working on their spoken English. In other lessons, Elle would make them take turns to read out loud for the whole class from a text. They enjoyed it so much to the extent that some parents Elle met in the streets would say to me, you are the girl who has our children speaking to us in English at home. I later learned that what Elle was doing was called the audio lingual teaching method. Conquering doubts and fears. It took a long while for the students to get to a point where they had to freely communicate in the English language. Some were still faced with low esteem challenges so Elle had to extend my hospitality to after school hours with a parents written consent. Others were faced with the community stigma that they would amount to nothing, so Elle started speaking to my students in English even outside the school perimeters to my surprise they joined in and liked it too. But that did not stop the stigmatization and criticism from the community elders. Elle decided to capitalize on that negative feedback. Back then, the Zoom's ordinary level English examination was divided into three sections, the comprehension, the essay, and the appropriate register sections. I would teach them a language on greetings, birthday parties, church events, and school meetings and ask them to go teach people back home. I also asked the school headmaster to allow my class to draft the invitation to the school's prize giving ceremony of that year. I think to have to show off their spoken English spike their confidence allotted also improved the way they answered their comprehension questions. I learned about the communicative language teaching method only when I took the IDTT TEFL course. Choice of assignments. Once they could effectively communicate in English, read out loud in class without stammering or feeling embarrassed and they could answer questions from a passage Elle read while they were listening, mainly because there was a great shortage of textbooks but this course taught me that is also an effective way of teaching. The great challenge was to put down thoughts on paper creatively. The minute impromptu speeches were but that, short and precise, but now to come up with two full written pages seemed to be a challenge for them. This was everything in one. The tenses, the grammar, the proverbs and idioms, the ordinary level student vocabulary and Elle had no trick to pull out that would direct them besides the general rules of parts of speech. I had to wing it, every time they went home for their week and Elle would give them a creative writing assignment either formal or informal, alternating them every week. There are two tricks Elle learned from my mother, a former teacher herself, which Elle also adopted. First, she'd make her students write a progress test and instead of marking the books at her own time, she would bring back the whole lot and marked then randomly give the books at and tell the students to arm themselves with pencils to mark the books while they revise as the whole class. During the second term, Elle also adopted the act of giving out practice tests every Friday in their format, structure and allocated time using past exam papers. By then, having had set for two major national examinations Elle had a clear understanding of testing but Elle did not realize that progress tests were designed for evaluation. Being patient. In conclusion, my learning and teaching experience taught me great patience and understanding that you cannot enforce something by working on one aspect of it, you have to use everything and every method at your disposal to drive your point home and make sure students understand why you are doing what you are doing. I did not know by name, then, what Elle was doing but Elle incorporated what Elle later learned to have been important teaching methods that helped me achieve what Elle wanted them to achieve for themselves, hence to this day Elle still received thank you messages via social media from my former students. The English language is a core subject in Zimbabwe hence it's very crucial that one does well in it if they are to make a life for themselves. I had to understand their background and challenges first before Elle took on any foreign ideas to them and helped them view things in life in general from a different perspective. It was not just an academic betterment task but a ray of hope to a better livelihood.  Speak with an ITTT advisor today to put together your personal plan for teaching English abroad. Send us an email or call us toll free at 1-800-490-0531 to speak with an ITTT advisor today.


Biden was in Israel on a Wednesday meeting with the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu And he made some remarks after that meeting. Let's play those remarks and get your analysis of what he's saying I come to Israel with a single message You're not alone We're going to make sure we have what you have what you need to protect your people to defend your nation for decades We've ensured israel's qualitative military edge And later this week I'm going to ask the united states congress for unprecedented support package for israel's defense. I understand and many americans understand You can't look at what has happened here To your mothers your fathers or grandparents sons daughters children even babies And not scream out for justice Justice must be done But I caution this while you feel that rage Don't be consumed by it After 9 11, we were in rage in the united states While we saw justice and got justice. We also made mistakes the vast majority of palestinians are not hamas Hamas does not represent the palestinian people Palestinian people are suffering greatly as well We mourn the loss of innocent palestinian lives like the entire world I was outraged and saddened by the enormous loss of life yesterday in the hospital in gaza Based on the information we've seen today It appears the result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in gaza today I asked the israeli cabinet i met with for some time this morning To agree to the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to civilians in gaza Today i'm also announcing $100 million of new u.s funding for humanitarian assistance in both gaza and the west bank This money will support more than 1 million displaced in conflict affected palestinians including emergency needs in gaza Must keep pursuing peace Must keep pursuing a path so that israeli and palestinian people can both live safely In security and dignity and in peace For me that means a two-state solution So there's a lot packed into that montage of highlights But what i hear biden saying is that america will keep funding israel's military defense That he's working to provide aid to palestinians Telling israel not to let rage cloud their wartime judgment And that he still believes in a two-state solution What are your reactions to biden's comments and What are your critiques of his overall diplomatic approach? I Think that biden says a lot of very valid things in this interview. I think it is quite helpful That he has raised the example of our own conduct after 9 11 and acknowledge mistakes And missteps that were taken and excesses that were taken Uh, I think it's also valid for him, of course to Validate that they're suffering on both sides. Here's where I have a problem On a rhetorical level, many of the things that biden is saying in my view are correct and are the right things to say On a practical level, are we actually doing those things? He says that he believes in the two-state solution The united states is long abandoned actually putting any pressure to make sure that there's an achievement towards that It was quite interesting in the new york times article that tom freedman wrote When the biden administration was trying to get a normalization deal between israel and the saudi's and what was in it For the palestinians was not a compromise that would give them the state that they've been seeking for more than 70 years now But rather a pathway to keep the option the dream a lot So we've gone from actually promising To achieve a two-state solution to promising to achieve the survival of the dream Of a two-state solution So we're not doing those things that the president is saying and again the the normalization deal Was premised on the idea that you can just ignore the palestinians That you can as jared kushner Said because this is all built on what trump's abram accord was that you can move beyond the palestinian issue Not even a desire and ambition to resolve it But you can move beyond it because that conflict has now become so contained That we don't have to bother trying to resolve it In essence and in practice that has been us policy The rhetoric has been that we still believe in a two-state solution, etc Part of the reason why we still say that we do is because it sounds good And the minute we say that we don't when we recognize that we have also helped kill the pathway for a two-state solution That's when we would have a very active Uh crisis even short of what hamas did here So we keep on saying but it's a pretense game We really do have to shift to being serious about this Particularly mindful of the fact that that instability has a significant likelihood Of sucking the united states into a conflict that we should not be involved in military So say a two-state solution gets pursued. What indication do we have that hamas would in any way Agree to that play this out for me a little bit Well, first of all, hamas is not in control of the west bank. They're in control of gaza. So Agree in terms of like like the way tensions are right now. Why do we think that that is what would be happening? Well, you're saying that right now, but why didn't we do it three four weeks ago? Why didn't we do it during this entire period in which we didn't have this instead? We just gave lip service to the two-state solution and continue to pursue a policy that essentially Buried it in the ground You're quite right that under the current circumstances, it's going to be extremely difficult to just get any diplomacy going But that is nevertheless ultimately where we have to end up And that in these moments are the extremely difficult moments in which you have to set your ambitions a little bit more realistically It has to be about the escalation Cease fire once you have that it creates a bit of a pause that creates political momentum to escalate it towards A bigger political agenda and then move towards a real negotiation to actually end this conflict It's not so that tomorrow there can be a meeting with all of these parties at the table and they would actually talk about this issue There's several preliminary steps that need to be taken if we don't take them However, we will never get to the point of actually having the real diplomacy and we will also not have the de-escalation that can keep the united states out of this world I have to assume that this such a negotiation would involve the Palestinian Authority cooperating with Israel and partners to facilitate the complete expulsion of Hamas because there's no way that We're coming out of this on the heels of a brutal terrorist attack giving With you know, giving a two-state salute giving an independent Palestine that that would just send the message I would assume that terrorism Works and is the acceptable method of negotiation I think the pathway here is to first recognize that there needs to be Uh a negotiation Uh with the Palestinian Authority who by the way incidentally is lacking significant legitimacy amongst Palestinians as well The majority of Palestinians in the west bank tend to see the Palestinian Authority essentially having taken over the management of the occupation and collaborating with Israelis in that kind So it's not as if you know There's a partner there that has the backing of its population unit and that further complicates matters but I can see a pathway in which there is first a negotiation that I actually get serious about a two-state solution With such a two-state solution has to deal with what the united states used to call illegal Settlements on Palestinian territory We have significantly soft in our language and in our opposition to that even though those are violations of international law And even though they have made Prospects of a two-state solution far far less likely we have green lighted that which again is in practice We're moving in a direction of making a two-state solution Next to impossible but rhetorically we still talk about it as if that is our goal But that that sort of dodges the question that's uh, that's act just asked right like There would be this problem of if you know, ultimately There there was a two-state solution that was pursued and and granted and gotten That would send the message. I mean you you have to fully stamp out Hamas before that. No, no Hold on. Let me let me get clarification. What do you mean that there was a two-state solution and um, that was there No, no, no, I'm saying if if there were to be a two-state solution In the aftermath of this Surely one of the stipulations would have to be that Hamas can in no way exercise any power within this region because otherwise There is this message sent of you know, you commit terroristic acts and get rewarded for your efforts, right? Like Yeah, no, I I'm sorry. I better understand the question now. Thank you So, uh, first of all, let's let's recognize that in the past negotiations the west bank and Gaza oftentimes have been separated Let's also recognize that if there actually is a valid process that it's genuinely moving towards a two-state solution Guess what that does it delegitimizes Hamas Hamas is managing to get a degree of support precisely because there is no diplomacy precisely because there is no The implementation of the measures that Israel was supposed to do Or never implemented and instead we've seen an increase of settlement activity and the de facto annexation Of Palestinian territory. So there's a clear perception in the region that that diplomacy did not yield What it was supposed to do and then that Further gives legitimacy and support for a rejectionist organization like Hamas who was opposed to that process from the outside If you actually truly want to get rid of that type of radicalism By being able to have an a genuine process that is genuinely seeking a solution That's the best way of weakening Hamas and then after that then, you know, that dynamic in and of itself can create new opportunities in uh in Gaza That can help get the Palestinian population themselves there get rid of Hamas and get a leadership that is willing to participate in the process, but right now given the track record of How negotiations have been used to expand settlements That is right now not not something that has a lot of buyers amongst the Apostates and this is what i'm saying. We have to completely reverse this if we truly want to get a resolution The assumption had been This is okay. There's never going to be a major amount of violence and destabilization here because we have managed to contain Um, the Palestinians we have managed to contain their aspirations. We have ai and all of this technology They can never do anything else So the cost of just going on with the status quo and the occupation is manageable and that was fundamentally disproven Hey, thanks for watching that clip from our conversation with Trita Parsey about whether the u.s Can and should de-escalate things in the middle east you can watch another clip right here or the full conversation over here


Going on everyone say I'm here with late in sports card drip in 23. Bowman Chrome University football hobby 12-box full case break number 12 Pick your college style read up all the surnames our teams bow be with Duke Brian L with Oklahoma Christopher a UCLA David M Tennessee Don H Penn State Jibariel LSU James S. Oregon Jeffrey H. Washington John H. Notre Dame Jonathan L all other schools Keegan be with Georgia Logan P with Colorado Matthew M. Florida State Mike you Ohio State Nenad M with Michigan Phillip T Ole Miss and Clemson Richard H. USC so Southern Cal Ronald W UNC North Carolina Sean M with Alabama and Snell with Texas Good luck here everybody. Let's do it Good luck. Let's see some fire. I know let's see. Let's see a Hartman or a estimate for you John that'd be fire Not bad. I hate to say I like I hate to admit it, but that one's not bad. Yeah. Thank you Tom see Shout out Tom, baby. Oh Jesus That's so sharp Dude, stop is really good. I like Bryson's not a lot. They've got some good young studs on that team, man Yeah, I don't agree Bryson, yeah, do we really take anything don't do we really take anything Bryson said seriously at this point? Only when it comes to shipping Yeah, other than that He doesn't like watching Red Zone Yeah, for that million times. I only like focusing on one game. Well Bryson your body Yes, sir Be adopted take a swing Oh John I sent your card out today by the way, I meant to send you a picture of tracking, but I forgot Drake may not I was about Caleb Williams purple Kobe Prentice the 399 It's probably about YouTube TV this college football season is in the event yet That's what I'm saying, dude The more games you watch at the same time the better Mason Smith Jordan Travis Jane Dolora. I just a bot man Bryson's a bot Will Shepherd first refractor Matthew Gooden first refractor on that word sure Sanders Purple shimmer Joar Jordan Louisville Marvin Harrison jr. First refractor nice one there Travis Hunter Collins John Reese Plumlee Lake shaping first base auto for Baylor Nice one there That's Bella Kayla McDowell first X-Fractor. It's full super out of this too called it in a Gilded Marvin Harrison. Oh, it's kind of why I wasn't like neighbors first So wild dude third card in the key of Watson yellow to 75 for wazoo Nice Jordan Travis refractor first thought or refractor auto not a first for Florida State the 499 Congrats. I miss you Elijah to 299 with extra sicko mode sauce Jake Garcia Nice one there. He calls name I know I'm kind of excited I got to be honest. Oh bow nicks Saturday superstars going to Oregon Grats on that one Cardinals off the board. Thanks to Tyler H. We are at To go just I'm reading something Now I was ringing email Dukes Yeah next nasty The level of Yeah Not the plant first and now Flowers I think it's plant is botany is that plant or is that is it just flowers or it's just is it just plants in general? Scientific study of plants. Yeah, including their physiology structure genetics ecology distribution classification and Okay, I'm definitely Yeah That Jake Garcia first base auto from a zoo I just remember and like I think it was also in fifth grade like on Arbor day We had somebody come in like Arbor day is like the it's like tree day kind of Cooper to John to 1.99. No, not Earth Day. It's actually I'm absolutely wasting just one serious. He's getting trashed Get this guy out of here. Send him this guy needs to mix of water Hi, Simpson Spencer can stay for Bone X early risers like no like Arbor day is like specifically just for trees not for like earth or like nature It's for trees. What the cold would I I don't know why I don't know why they call it that I'm sorry I don't know. I don't know it's probably something to do with like Has something to say with trees and Tony Gage jr. First again, this is like fifth grade and This guy came in and gave us everybody like a little tree to go home and And Again, I don't know why you gave this to fifth graders. I went home and planted mine I remember that and I know I know where it is and my my house in Connecticut Donovan Edwards first extra at your house. No, I didn't put it in my house I planted it. I know where it is outside of my house Actually grow in the woods. Yeah, Drake may Michael Drake, but people there's kids like thrown at each other I was like, I don't know why you gave this Mason Smith to 399 Sam explaining Arbor Day to Sam. I was explaining it to myself Brock Bowers, Devin Leary Yeah, he was. Oh, no Michael Penex X Fractor. There it is.  Oh, no Montrell Johnson first fractor There's Damian Martinez to 299 It's more like going to do all the way just like dirt everywhere What are we doing? Joseph Griffin Boston College to Spencer needs to mix water in for sure, dude Shimmer cam rising and Emmanuel Henderson. You ever had the leprechaun pee before that? No, no, I didn't have that. I did but we just died of green I know No, we just called it dying of green. Oh, leprechaun didn't actually go pee Yeah, Philly's Philly Stroze again. It's looking like John I'll drop you on site Sorry, I stole some of Spencer's drinks. Don't tell him Vonish drunk yet. I'm out of here Not if I have Jared cough with me Jared golf No tomorrow Jared golf that thumbs down Chill dude Little bucks play you should know that The rays are no longer in playoffs. You should be focused solely on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Okay solely Let's say they play somebody in their division Falcons, yeah In Tampa, we haven't really played other than the Saints. We haven't played the falcons Wow Bucks falcons Jared golf is your cookie bear.  Thank you. Thank you, dude. I appreciate that Oh, yes, sir I should go Ravens. Yes, sir We beat the bucks last week. Go Ravens. True Brian Thomas Jr. For LSU last team taken Drake may first Yellow Donovan Jackson, Ohio State 275 Ow, dude Kool-Aid McKinstry What else was there that happened at school? Early risers Marvin Harrison Yeah If this gets shot with a 20 Just a beyond sanders John Reese Plumlee first refractor Caleb Williams Winston Wright J. J. McCarthy refractor always asked kind of Winston right and he said, yeah, or if he's wrong He said no, it's right Yellow macaica lemon to 75 Travis Hunter Will Johnson first X factor Big Guna Michael Penex Nice. Nice one there.  Reem Sanders for Arkansas to 4.99 Kyle Hamilton last week. Yeah Shimmer first cj. Donald's Finally be able to watch the game this way. I didn't watch it last week because I wasn't getting up at nine and the fourth London game It's not happening But I will watch it this week. Yeah. No, that's facts That's facts. I like I I wouldn't mind if the lions won like the one the Super Bowl as long as it wasn't against Baltimore They have a we have a tough stretch coming up, dude We don't really play like a bot team for a while Yeah, that's gonna be tough. Yeah Packer fan. We've been spoiled. Yeah, that's true. That's true Lion sticker almost came off my car After the one and six start last year Yeah, that was rough, dude because everybody was like, all right They're gonna be good and then they just they were not in the beginning the first like seven weeks They were terrible Again just two to go panthers falcons in mosaic choice everybody last two group break spots of the day Yeah, Ravens play the Niners this year too. I'm terrified of that Thank you Geez, dude, uh jj mccarthy early risers bonix early risers Shadoor sanders 55 throwback Our jackson dart a j swan for uh gold shimmer first swan 250 What's that from tailing green first your practice ronda gazdan, how do you not know that never seen it joseph griffin to 499 Nice one there boston college. Yep jackson dart marvin harrison purple shimmer miles davis byu grant wells first refractor and base T-laws haunting herbert Extractor j. Uh julia fruke travis hunter first base winston right refractor Uh romand dunze nice one there to 299 for washington Donovan as a racu going to the all other boston college first base auto purple mini diamonds victor rosa to 399 yukon Roll skis baby devon leary first extractor and mild Roll skis baby Hear that roll skis better hear that jake. I hear it Trust me. Ouch. Well at least flipped over so we'll just go through them No Yeah, I don't I don't get that either to be honest one. I don't understand how staley is It's can't hire like a competent coach there. That's the problem Like everybody they've hired it's just not been good That's been the issue It's like a curse The door's still there jake. Okay Well, if you keep saying something about it Those doesn't like when you know when those About the tag here's an update. There we go spencer. Let's go Hell yeah, dude one day night jumbo. We're going after riley greens. No going after jake roger's plan Uh, we are going after the jake roger's uh ssb for sure Platinum true platinum true platinum. We're going to that's what about the ssb right spencer, right? Yeah, I showed jake the ssb yesterday. That's what got us on the rabbit hole of Looking up ssbs yesterday. It was the jake rogers that spencer sent me Oh, you love riley green. Oh, yeah, yeah, I bet Big riley green guy purple shimmer connor colby awa lamanic buka Rubin Owens first refractor a and m jj mccarthy early risers Michael pratt purple evan stewart to 3.99 chyler van dyke refractor Roe nicks and base Oat Frank gore jr. All other southern mess nice one there congrats all other Frank gore jr. Jason mcclellan to 75 first for alabama arvin harrison throwback x fractor juar jordan Son of legendary college and pro-ranked back friend Ah Walker Howard Good to know green auto jetevion sanders going to texas nice one there ut Horn's down Will johnson It's funny when people do that marvin harrison first First will johnson. I think against texas. I was gonna say like CJ Donaldson to 3.99 purple many diamonds and she door sanders first catching strays from you for no reason. They are Mm-hmm I'm right. Yeah, hopefully colt keith makes the mlb. He's nasty. I don't know if young's quite there yet He might need one more year in the minors. I'm still young.  I'm John. Yep Yep Bad bath and Dijon bad bath and Dijon That's it Dijon mustard To infinity and Dijon That's about it. That's all I got right now Oh now it opens perfectly Unbelievable Oh really? Are you just botting around over there with it the first time?  Yes a ronde gassed into 4.99 Such a bot all other for sarah keeps I like mice. I like mice and school Yeah, school. All is like pretty good this year actually. I'm in my fancy's name. He's coming back. Shad's Preston green shimmer to 99 He only made a couple stars lose Who did school? Drew pine. When's uh, am I supposed to be back? I think beginning of this year, right? He's coming here. Marvin Harrison. I don't know Sounds right Spencer, do you know?  I'm so drunk. I was commenting on a youtube channel thinking it was a live channel Oh, that was good, dude. I just looked at it. I'm like god. What are we doing? Caleb williams Green brandon in s2 99 That we it needs to be pulled together everybody Between Spencer and shady this chat needs to pull it together a little bit. Tony. Okay, jr. First ex refter commenting on a video Now to be fair it was on the last video that got uploaded. Luckily arshawn moig first refter Blue rhino keef 2 199. All right, here we go Sure is their verlander price for sello smiley and anibal sanchez. Good god. That is nuts I know There you go, john of dead shady.  Oh Oh, yeah We switched trashes in your chance Awesome, john. Maybe not Dominic as a rockin. Did they uh, did they uh review it or no? No, I don't think he tagged Uh Singleton. Yeah, that's true. They did they did A yellow michael hall jr. To 75 first robby ashford refractor early risers jordan travis There turn that Solomon to shields first refractor green unexpected delights early risers to 99 jj mccarthy Good lord eight sci eight sci-yongs and 22 all stars. Are you sure is their price for sello and verlander? Good lord mackay lemon first, uh, auto for usc And lost because of al albuquerque shroy franklin first shimmer There is no al albuquerque slander in this chat It was a dog gante more first refractor Oh mario williams rambling man on card to 99 on the auto Nice one there. Congrats to usc.  Oh, that was sorria walking sorria. Yeah, I was thinking of the delman young double down the line Ray's legend delman young See i'm that auto i gave you delman young No, it was bj up in mack. Oh, that's right. It's got chaser and and proffer I mean, it's still an awesome card. Yeah Thank you Absolutely Phil coke.  Isn't it ala vela or did they call him alex? There's ala vela. He was a man right? Or the gm. That's right gm. I think he still is Is he really isn't ala vela so you guys gm I wrong there Ian anderson and hope god Yeah, who else who is in the when shers are one of the dynabax who they say Who the tiger straights in It was somebody else. I forget who the other guy was velver. It wasn't velverty. Was it? No Two to go still everybody two to go falcons panthers, that's it first refractor jerry on dickie danse more ramblin man's aviar worthy at herald perkins X fractor first brady cooks Oh, man maculate grid legend edwin jackson, dude. He threw a no hitter against the raisin as a d-back. Wow cam camper first. That's funny That's a low light for the raise isael williams 275 Caleb and usc down by 10 in the fourth. Wow, dude utah's legit. Nice going into her name joe alt There you go john Nice one there one of the best offensive linemen in the nation if not the best Jeremiah hunter nice one there john congrats, buddy purple michael hall jr. 399 Illegal isn't in here. I know there'd be a war going on right now. Malik benson Don kelly hotfoot incident Full moment that are josey maia herding himself playing guitar hero drake may How do you do that? I don't know kate stover. I mean, it's a rumor that he did Definitely a fake tabion robinson to 150 nice one there for all of it cover up some else I don't know. I think they'd cover that up with something else to be honest austin jones I was like when david price heard his hand playing fortnight Yeah, you never heard about that when he was on the the uh red stocks mitch labor to 99 even price Yeah Is any i'm not wrong about that anybody else remember that should or sanders nice one there Is that a boston market shirt now? It's that's kind of funny though. He just asked if you got a boston market shirt Yeah, see see vaughn remembers that vaughn. No vaughn. No best Yeah, he heard his hand playing fortnight because I think didn't he's like didn't he like Punched something or like he was just playing too much and like heard his hand because he like played it too much It is not it is the latin national national convention t-shirts But it is very similar Best cornbread. I've never been there I have once or twice. There's one. Uh, well, I guess you're not really close to here though. Like where you live, right? Like half hour away Joel zoom, uh, Joel zoom. I uh, um, what's it called he heard his uh He heard his like heard his arm playing guitar hero. I'm pretty sure It's like a boston thing for sure Fast and market Yeah, there's one around here There's one like pretty close to where like close enough for it. It's like I can get it delivered carpal tunnel syndrome Who's too busy going to tilt the towers Tilted towers was the move I'll be back again Next season they confirmed it it's going back to the original uh map Oh man, finally it took me about 40 years Uh, Tyler Buckner base auto for alabama shadore sanders Travis Hunter green shimmer Antonio gates to 99 Jalen Daniels first refractor Walker Howard purple shimmer They were like the quiz knows a fast food microwave turkey. That's valid Drake my first refractor That's fractured jacob cohen Dominic love it first Okay, that's good to know. I haven't been there. That's good to know though lane. I will not go there now sure sanders jacob, uh windman So I should not go there either Probably not no to 399 macaile lemon because it won't be the true Won't be as as good Jackson dart x-fractor there you go fill with Ole Miss first refractor to taveon sanders green shimmer dominic love it to 99 for georgia Love it. Love it Fill them off up for Clemson to 99 nice one there Clemson. I think it's going to fill right there Fill again. I fill One by the shop I know there was one by the shop. I have no idea. I was thinking the one that's up near like, uh Up in ultimat lane near like the mini golf place like up toward the mall that way. That's the one I was thinking of I guess what he's saying maybe Oh, oh, oh near the gaming shop Or is there one closer to us Okay, okay. Gotcha. Gotcha. Yeah. Okay. That's the only one I know of That's the only one I know of is the one up by the gaming shop. Yeah, okay Yeah, don't go to that one. If you ever go to the gaming shop, don't stop at Boston Market anywhere at home confirmed Beep boop over Yeah, just two to go Sold out sold out just kidding.  Thank you abdo sold out of the night everybody Appreciate that guys. Thank you. Thank you. Yes, sir. We did it. Yes, sir GG easy Long's in the hall of good. Yeah, it's true. Long go Too bad. I never got a ring You guys have Arby's uh, I had to default to Arby's because that's the only place I've had Uh Me too on it. I mean I've like the last time I went to Boston Market. It's probably 12 years ago That's what I'm saying rangers swore is this coming in the game So like remember earlier.  Yeah, sure Yeah, it is weird. What are we doing? Sir Anthony Dominguez coming out Dante more. Yeah Ranger swore is coming. Okay, Bucca Uh yellow Caleb downs to 75 Kobe Prentice first refractor early risers Shaddour Donnie Mitchell Ex-fractor Tori Horton Travis Hunter first Mackay Lemon first Jacob Cohen Troy Franklin first refractor to 4.99 for Oregon Purple shimmer Blake Shepin Dylan Gabriel first refractor Devon Leary Ex-fractor Drake May first nice one there UNC Mark next Maybe maybe I'm not maybe bonus uh blue Jaffari Harvey to 1.99 Nice Rubin Owens a.m. 275 first to yellow auto There's like a p-color match And the the vegetable vegetable Crane Mitchell labor what? That's the first thing you thought of and definitely a p the vegetable Miami wins tonight would be insane the refs have absolutely been a quality thing Angela Hernandez, man, that can't be good Good lord, dude No, they have not they have stunk Caleb just threw the ball negative four inches At a small party for Angel's birthday It's a good that's a that's a good reason That's a good occasion to have a birthday party for though Bonnie will agree with you on that Makes sense why they brought in uh Dallon Hayden first refractor Go ahead They brought in who? Strong Green shimmer of Evan Stewart to 99 Anand Phil Maffa to 499 for Clemson for Joe West retirement Bro, I think Joe West lives in my Shimmer Casey Thompson really Yeah Is that confirmed or Well, like there's somebody that looks like him We So what my dad was saying is that For my community, there's like There's like Then there's like houses and there's like the rich part And like he said that He's seen like a truck of like MLB plates come out Huh? The rich part Okay And a 2399 Caleb Downs Huh, okay, I like that That's interesting Isaiah Williams So I don't know I've never seen him Gotta keep your eyes out then Drake May Blake Corum X factor Nice one here Big Kahuna JJ McCarthy There you go Michigan Nice one there Go blue Donovan Smith to 299 1st for Houston X Fractor Caleb Johnson 1st for Awa Drake May 1st Christopher Vazina 1st for Fractor Nice, there he is Shador Sanders First base auto for Colorado Congrats Colorado Very nice Hell yeah For sure Shador Get that into America Congrats on that one Colorado That then make everything about you and throw someone out in the park the very instant they look at you the wrong way True Yeah, Joe West was never afraid to launch somebody out of the game, dude Never afraid Never afraid Yeah Where you got hit by the ball? When they threw there was like a throw down to a second I think it was in a Yankees game and it pegged Joe West Remember that I think it was in like a C.S. or a T.S. Yeah Yeah, what is it? Burley Oh Yeah, yeah I'm sorry Yeah Thought I said it right Yeah, Hatter I thought I had her He'd throw you out I know he would throw anybody out, dude Utah and USC if it's still on I think it is at least I'm under the impression that it still is Before you leave, do you mind helping me just grab first now? I'll make a dip No Okay Where is it? Is it gone?   I was like, oh, dude, that's sick Dude Jevon Bullard first refractor That was for Georgia, that was funny That was great Malachi Starks to 499 Going to Georgia, first refractorado UGA Marvin Harrison, Jr. X Fractor for Shaanu Jackson Arnold, first refractor Purple Danny Dennis Sutton to 299 Frank Gore, Jr. to 499 First refractorado for Southern Miss Nice one there Michael Williams, purple shimmer Shador Sanders Kyle McCord, first refractor Caleb Williams Drake May, purple mini diamonds, 399 Nice one there, UNC X Fractor, Oscar Delp Gold shimmer, Montrell Johnson for Florida, 50 Antonio Williams, first refractor Is there a Montrell Johnson and a Montrell Jordan? I think so, yeah Marvin Harrison, Jr. Unexpected delights Pretty sure they're both Are they both from Florida? That is weird That'll do it, everybody Let's do a quick recap here Thanks, sir Got color in autos And then we'll go into mags Montrell Johnson AJ Swan, those are both gold Space autos, Tyler Buckner Joe Olt Mackay Lemon Frank Gore, Jr. Donovan Ezraku Brian Thomas, Jr. Jake Garcia Blake Shapin Jordan Travis Troy Franklin These are now refractors to 499 Raheem Sanders Frank Gore, Jr. Malachi Starks Oran de Gazzin, Jr. Phil Mafa Joseph Griffin, twice To 150 is Tavion Robinson Got Mario Williamson, 99 USC Ramblin Mann on card Green to 99 Phil Mafa, to Tavion Sanders Yellow to 75 Michael Hall, Ruben Owens And then we've got Chador Sanders, first base auto For Colorado And then Saturday Superstars Bo Nix Going to Oregon That'll do it for the break, everybody Thanks again for the fill Up next, Mosaic Choice


I am Siddhartha Ghosh, I belong to the civil engineering department and you have my contact phone number and the. So, for the next few days 3 to 4 days I will be your instructor and then professor Ashish thus will take over and then again I will come back for another 2 days or so. While I am here my primary instructions will be based on probability relation of probability statistics, application of probability etcetera. Well, I try to make my instructions interactive possible, but with such a large class like this I do not think I would be able to make it that way, but anyway if you have anything any question raise your hand interrupt me that would not be a problem. So, with that we will start. So, this is going to be the introduction to probability. So, far we have been discussing statistics various aspects of statistics and you have learnt to use mathematical tools like Sylab to get various parameters like mean, median and mode for a distribution and you have learnt about distributions of various kinds, how to deal with them, how to interpret the data in a statistical sense. Now, we are shifting a little bit towards something we call probability and I am sure all of you are familiar with the term probability to some extent may not be the technical way we always interpret probability, but to some extent you know what probability is and of course your mathematics courses at the 11th or 12th standard should have given you some introduction to what probability is, what are the different notions of probability. So, we will quickly go through those things and then discuss exactly where probability comes in the picture when we talk about our disciplines of engineering, technology, sciences like non-mathematic sciences, physics, chemistry, biology etcetera. So, here comes the introduction to probability, what we know a probability is that it is a branch of mathematics that is what we have learnt and we have so far considered it purely as a mathematics. For this course our focus is going to be in the application of knowledge about probability, I am trying to go slow here for today and I think I can pick a speed later on. So, what is probability? Probability the most cases what we do is to calculate the likelihood or possibility of occurrence of an event and I have emphasized those words like likelihood, possibility, event etcetera occurrence. I am sure you must have seen definition like this have you seen that yes right and you have some ideas about those typical terminologies what does it mean by likelihood, what does it mean by occurrence of an event ok. We will go into a little more detail about all those things specifically event what constitutes an event or so and so far what we did with probability is mostly calculating the probability or likelihood of occurrences such as when you toss a coin what is the likelihood that it would be heads or when you roll a dice what is the likelihood that it is going to be a five on the top face things like that or maybe the last example picking a red sock out of a box usually you say I said that there is a box which is like a black box you do not know what is there inside you only know that ok in total there are maybe 50 red boxes red socks and 20 black socks and you are supposed to pick at random for 3, 4 times and what is the possibility you get 2 red and 5 blacks or any other combination like this ok. So, this is what we have been doing so far in terms of probability. So, for this course we change it a little bit when you think about engine and technological application of probability ok. So, again rolling the dice is not our focus of course we are going to use a lot of example in terms of rolling a dice in terms of tossing a coin because those are really very useful tools to describe how we compute probability how we do counting to get a typical likelihood of the occurrence of some event ok. But again those are just examples when you go through our tutorials you will see that in a lot many cases we deal with again rolling the dice ok or picking out a colorful ball from black box those do not have any practical application, but fine, but they are good for explaining certain notions that as an instructor I would like to explain to you ok. So, our goal is to look at design of engineering systems like civil, electrical, mechanical, chemical etcetera you can add on I have just said engineering system it does not only relate to engineering also deals with modeling of processes of what kind as an example I tell you molecular processes it is very complicated or any natural phenomena. The natural phenomena are usually of very complicated type it is not very easy to know exactly what are going on inside a specific system take the case of cell motility ok. If you want to know about cell motility how human cells move how they change how they deform etcetera etcetera you need to know about them in detail and in many cases that detailed kind of knowledge is not available to us. So, what do we do we use the concept of probability and statistics to have some idea have some estimation of the behavior of those human cells and their motility. So, we use probability lot in modeling natural phenomena natural processes another example is this what is the average lifespan of a microchip let us say you built a semiconductor you built a microchip any customer any consumer of that product will ask you how much reliability do I have with that product. How many days how many years it is going to last and as a manufacturer you have to give the customer that can have information which will also determine the cost of the product and then you can have a proper marketability of your product ok. So, these things are very important and these things can be interpreted only from a probabilistic perspective we do not really have in deterministic system deterministic as opposed to probabilistic to know exactly what is the lifespan going to be for a typical product like a microchip or even take the case of human life we do not know, but what does an insurer do ok let us take any life insurer let us take the case of LIC or something else.  Now all these calculations the amount the premium it all depends on what the insurer interpreted the probability of an event what is that event the death of a person based on some large statistics you do this kind of interpretation and then would arrive at some numbers to charge as a premium. So, probability has not only applications in science engineering technology, but also in finance management almost every field you can imagine. So, safety and maintenance of systems processes products well let us come to safety and maintenance. Whenever you are delivering a product or you are making a system let us take the case of an workshop when you build a workshop for any manufacturing process let us say. You need to plan for its maintenance you need to plan for its operation you need to know a little bit about what is the expected lifespan of that workshop. So, that overall you can have some idea about was the overall return from this kind of investment. See investment and return is one kind of measure of what the whole performance of this system that you have created is going to be. So, considering all that you can make a judgment if I am going to invest on building a workshop over here or not and the cost incurred on making or building the workshop is not only the initial cost of creating that, but also the running cost the operation cost the cost for repair and maintenance etcetera etcetera. You should consider all this to have a proper scientific judgment on if you should build that workshop or not am I getting my ideas clear. So, these are like practical applications of the theory of probability in our daily life as engineers as technologists as scientists. So, we are going to study basically this where is the probability in the scheme of data analysis and an interpretation as we are studying in IC 102. So, now I told you that I am a civil engineer. So, I will try to give example from the civil engineering perspective I know that most of you are not civil engineers and most of many of you are not engineers at all, but anyway it does not matter. Try to have a fill of real life applications real life notions of probability not just you know red stock picking red stock out of a box. So, what is civil engineering? Many of you may not be familiar with what it is. In civil engineering we basically deal with design and analysis also operation and maintenance etcetera etcetera of infrastructural systems. And by infrastructural systems we mean these like buildings, bridges like the drinking water network in a city, the waste water network in a city, analysis of a flood plain, designing canals, waterways, designing airports, highways etcetera. So, these are infrastructural systems that a civil engineer is supposed to know how to build how to design and for an existing one how to analyze, how to know what is the level of safety in that. So, as a civil engineer I come to these examples first well I should also tell you this that my specialization is in the area of earthquake engineering. Where what we do is to create systems construct buildings, bridges again all those infrastructure systems safe in case of earthquakes that is our basic purpose. So, to do that we need to know about two things. One is the buildings the bridges that you are building and on the other hand we should also know about the earthquakes. Once you have both sides of the coin then you can construct the system that you need. Now, the problem that an earthquake engineer faces all the time is that to know about the earthquake we do not have enough information on earthquake. So, whenever you are designing something against earthquake making something safe against earthquake the first question that you should ask is when is the next earthquake going to be and how big it is going to be. Now, there are some typical measurements you know we use terminologies like magnitude of an earthquake and I am sure you have heard things like well take the case of the recent Haiti earthquake have you read about that? Yeah of course, do you remember what was the magnitude of that earthquake 7 point something. So, that is one measure we call it the Richter magnitude moment magnitude and so on. There is also other measures like intensity have you heard of anything like that well it is not that important, but anyway. So, these are measures that one needs to know before somebody does a design safe against earthquakes and as you can very easily see that these are things that you do not know these are things that are uncertain these are things that are probabilistic. We have no information when the next earthquake is going to be and how big that earthquake is going to be. I give you another example of design of storm sewers are you familiar with the term storm sewers these are those big drains that carry rain water to some you know water sink water basin. For example, there is a big storm sewer this open channel that comes from the swimming pool alongside the road then crosses the main road next to the tennis court and goes to power lake have you seen that you all must have seen that right. So, that is a big open channel what is it supposed to do when it when there is a storm and by storm I mean a huge rainfall when there is a storm it should carry the storm water safely into a water sink. So, that the areas which we need for our daily functions are not flooded that is the purpose of a storm sewer. So, to design a storm sewer what do we need to do we need to know when and how big is the next storm again storm does not mean only wind storm here means rainfall. So, that is the primary information that we need to design a storm sewer also need to know the intensity and duration. So, that is like the experience that a civil engineer has while building or constructing different infrastructure systems. So, the primary thing that we get here is the notion of uncertainty or randomness whenever you are designing something let us say you are designing a satellite and let us say you are an electrical engineer looking at the moving of arms of the satellite you are a control engineer. Again you will deal with this kinds of uncertainties and randomnesses. So, that is going to be the primary focus for this part of the course that we treat probability primarily as uncertainties randomness that we have to deal with that we have to face in designing, analyzing, maintaining real systems where real includes both nature and man made. What we got to know from the previous examples is that design and analysis parameters are uncertain you also call them probabilistic and the fact is that we cannot avoid these uncertainties. Can we really say that I know that the next earthquake is going to be on this state and it will be of magnitude 6.7 I cannot say that. So, uncertainties in real systems are unavoidable. So, better we deal with it in a scientific way that is the purpose of learning probability in this course. As an example I cite here something that you are very familiar with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle which you use a lot in quantum mechanics do you remember that well as you know it is a it was not first proposed by Heisenberg. It is a more general law where you say that a pair of parameters cannot be identified both at the same time for a given system. So, see the whole subject of quantum mechanics is based from this uncertain principle without that you cannot go any further with this subject. So, you can see here that if we accept that there are uncertainties and we develop our models our theories to deal with that uncertainty then we can deal with the systems along with those uncertainties that we have in real life and that is the kind of purpose for this. Now, we come to two concepts two notions of probability the first one is known to be the subjective notion we call it subjective is notion here it is also sometimes known as Bayesian you might be familiar with the term Bayesian name after the theologist Thomas Bayes I will discuss about that later and it goes something like the example that is given over here that there is a 40 percent chance that a student will get an AA in this course a student says that. So, that is the kind of statement that you would see in case of subjective is notion of probability it is a probabilistic statement we always make a statement like that we say that it looks like this 50 percent chance of having rain today again that is a subjective is notion of probability it describes someone's belief or that belief comes out of experience or some other knowledge but, not on concrete data someone's belief that this event is going to occur with a likelihood of so and so percentage that is the subjective is notion of probability the other notion is known as the frequentist which was first formulated by the French mathematician and astronomer and politician Laplace have you heard of Laplace you are going through Laplace transformation and stuff like that in mathematics course some of you might be going through that as he was a very famous one I think if I remember correctly he lived from the middle of the 18th century to early part of the 19th century. So, he went through the French revolution and so on anyway. So, this famous scientist from France sometimes known as the Newton of Isaac Newton of France he first defined the concept of this frequent is notion of probability which is kind of based on counting which is based on data where we say that when an event can be treated as an experiment then what we can do to know the likelihood of that event is to repeat that experience several times and look at the output look at how many times event a is occurring how many time event b is occurring and then compute the probability. So, this is based on the frequency of occurrence of an event that is why it is called the frequentist notion of probability and it is based on counting and we will know more about counting later on. So, here is an example that there is a 1 6 chance that the dice will show 3 at the top that is true for a fair dice right. So, we can say that very easily that is based on counting if you keep on rolling the dice you will see that 1 6 of the times it should be 3 at the top or 1 6 time it would be any number at the top for this course we will mostly adopt a frequentist approach, but I do not if you can read that it says the mathematics is same for both approaches. So, it does not really matter if you have a subjective is notion of probability or the frequent is notion of probability how we deal with it in a mathematical perspective remain same well we say that probability is 60 percent. So, you deal with that 0.6 that number 0.6 in the same way be defined in the frequentist sense or be defined in the subjective sense. So, our theories or a method of calculations won't change and we will see when we deal a little bit about Bayesian notion Bayesian definition we will see how we can incorporate this subjective is this belief kind of notion of probability along with the frequentist more objective kind of notion of probability. Now, I come to another example this is an example from well you can say it is mechanical engineering example this is the second law of thermodynamics have you gone through thermodynamics anybody yes are you familiar with the second law of thermodynamics very good in very simplistic terms the second law of thermodynamics says that the entropy of a closed or isotropic system keeps on increasing this is not a rigid definition. So, you should not quote this what is entropy it is a kind of measure of the disorder in a system if a system is totally mixed up we say that it has high entropy if it is more order less mixed up then you say it has low entropy. So, that is the kind of idea of entropy. So, the second law says that for a closed and isotropic system closed means it is not affected by any external input it is separated from the rest. So, for a closed system the entropy keeps on increasing now we are trying to see here in a probabilistic sense how is that possible ok. If you use the notions of probability you can very easily see that this is going to be true in most cases and I will try to use an example to describe that and here we cite the case of a library without a librarian rearranging the books. So, the librarian rearranging the books is external to the system we make the system isolated now the system the library is without a librarian rearranging the books. So, what is going to happen that the book shelves or how the books are arranged is going to be more and more disordered as time passes do you see that users will be using that they will keep the books I think you do that I do that too in all kinds of wrong places and slowly you will see that the disorderedness will keep on increasing in that library that is kind of the second law of thermodynamics the example is not from thermodynamics of course ok. Why does that happen a frequentist probabilistic notion can explain that very clearly you know we go by counting for the frequentist notion of probability. So, we are looking at the possibility that the books can be in an ordered way and the possibility that the books can be in a disordered way. Now, the possibility of having the books in an ordered way is very small because there is only a single way of having them in a ordered fashion as opposed to numerous ways of having them in a disordered fashion. So, what you get really is that the probability of disorder that is how we put it here this is the probability of disorder this is the kind of common notation of putting probability is much greater than the probability of having the books in order. So, just by counting just by the frequentist notion of probability you can say that the second law of thermodynamics is true and it can be applied to systems even beyond the general thermodynamic systems. Now, so far I have been telling you about all these problems that we have with uncertainty that we do not know how this is going to be we do not know how much that is going to be we do not know when this is going to be and things keep on being disorderly things keep on being random. So, is randomness all that bad and I at least can cite one example that it is not all that bad from this example of Darwin's theory one of the greatest theories of modern science. So, the theory of natural selection which you have gone through well I am not an expert. So, I try to explain in layman's terms it is based on certain notions which are listed here the first one is the random genetic mutations. So, if these genes do not have any random mutations they do not come up with variations. So, it is only the random genetic mutations that will produce different traits in a species and in a cumulative sense as these differences keep on adding up and the differences between two species or two genes keep on increasing you have different species finally, appearing in the natural system. So, the first requirement for the Darwinian theory of natural selection is the random genetic mutation which results in variation in traits then along with things like heredity and finally, the selection of a preferred trait or preferred traits by nature will lead to what we call evolution of living beings. Primarily thing here is the random genetic mutation take any example very simple example I will tell you there was a single type of betel and due to some random mutations there came two types of betels one of this color one of that color that is one is brown one is green. Now, browns are more camouflaged in the woods. So, the greens are eaten by the predators. So, finally what happens that the brown betels did I say betels or worms whatever brown betels passes on their heredity and they are favored by the nature for having this within codes positive kind of attributes this is the notion of evolution in a very simplistic sense you have learned about you have studied about evolution. So, you know what it really is I do not have to go into the detail the basic thing that I want to emphasize is that it all comes from the random genetic mutation. Why do we call it random? Because it does not have any specific direction when the genetic mutations occur and it creates these two traits of betels green and brown you do not know which one is going to have a better success in keeping its species on. So, it is not directional it does not have any specific sense towards the forward direction of evolution. So, that is why it is a random there is a typical analogy that people give for this process of natural selection which is of the passing of a hurricane through a junkyard junkyard of metals scraps etcetera. So, the hurricane passes through the junkyard and the end result is the creation of a big airplane that is how random the system of evolution is that is what many people say what do you think is it a right kind of an analogy? Can you really say that this notion is similar to the notion of evolution that is the Darwinian evolution do you think so? No why no and the evolution is very probable. Well let us see this way I will give a simpler example they say the numbers may not be right exactly, but I will try to give an example.  What is the likelihood of that event? Once in billions trillions I do not know it is very very less right so very improbable. Now think of your family you go backward you can go backward in various ways you can track back your mother your mother's fathers fathers mothers in various ways you can go back, but now if you are considering that and try to find out what is the likelihood or possibility of having that trait what do you think for the last 40 generations if you want to see the probability of that event occurring it would be of the same order right. Again having boys boys girls mixed up, but any specific train it would be of the same order very very less. Yes evolution if you consider any specific trait is has that kind of likelihood very very low, but when we see the cumulative nature of it that it happens in a very slow way then it makes sense that is where the primary difference from this analogy comes into picture. It is not like that this airplane gets built in seconds or in seconds 30 minutes. And if you consider that there were several other part airplanes different looking airplanes etcetera etcetera by several I mean millions then you would understand that ok it could be an analogy to the system of evolution. And here I quote one to this is from Dawkins ancestor stale where he says that natural selection is the only explanation we know for the functional beauty and apparently design complexity of living beings. Which essentially says that if we did not have that kind of randomness in the process of mutation then evolution or nature would not come up with the kind of variety in living beings the kind of complexity in living beings the kind of grandeur that you see in the world around you. Now, we will shift again from various sciences to evolution mechanical systems to going back to the theory of probability. Since you are going to deal with uncertainties mostly there are two types of uncertainty there are two different categories broad categories that you usually deal with. One is the type one I said here is the one that is inherent in the system. Take the case of earthquakes we do not know how big and when it is going to be when you design storm stairs you have to know about monthly total rainfall in a city or a simpler example is this the age of a student in this class that is also uncertain. You take any student you do not know exactly you cannot in a deterministic sense say that this is going to be the age of a student age of this student. So, the outcome of this event is an uncertain thing and this kind of uncertainty which is inherent in the system is known as the aleatory uncertainty. The other kind of uncertainty is known as the epistemic which is associated with the imperfect knowledge that we have in explaining a system. Take any system take the universe or take simple motion of rigid bodies take Newton's laws of motion then you can understand whatever laws whatever rules whatever theories we have for describing any system tracking down any system are at best approximate. You think that if you do some calculations based on whatever equations like f is equal to m times a and if you measure the force would you really get the exactly same number no you never get that why because our laws the knowledge that we have which describe a system is approximate one. We do a lot of idealization any real system whenever we try to theorize that we go through some simplifications some approximations to develop our theory. So, these things also finally result into a kind of uncertainty which is called the epistemic uncertainty. So, any system or any model or law which tries to describe a natural phenomenon for example is giving you some kind of epistemic uncertainty. Can you cite some other example anybody give me an example of epistemic uncertainty any law may be the second law of thermodynamics what do you think would it give rise to epistemic uncertainty think about it coming to more concrete stuff these are the tools that you have to deal with the notions of probability in our domain that means the domain of science engineering and technology. We define things like sample space and events and you guys may be familiar with these definitions. Sample space usually donated by S is the set of all possible outcomes of an event all possible outcomes is the universal one. So, the examples you can see here outcome of rolling a regular cubic dice. So, this set the sample space includes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 there is no other outcome possible. So, that is the sample set for the experiment for the process of rolling a regular dice. If you take that four sided dice then the sample space would not have 5 and 6, but it would rather have 1, 2, 3 and 4. The last example is grade of a student in this one it has to be one value out of all these listed over here. So, the sample space would have everything every possibilities of outcome from an experiment. Then we define sample event which is defined as any subset of the sample space. For an example the outcome of rolling a dice is 2 that is one possible outcome. So, that we will consider to be a sample event e and we said that the sample event can be any subset. So, the subset can also be a combination of 2 individual events like the second example that the outcome of rolling a dice is either 2 or 5. You can consider this also to be an event not 2 events. You can consider the rolling of dice and getting 2 as one event you can consider rolling of dice and getting 5 as one event you can also consider rolling a dice and getting either 2 or 5 as another event. So, any subset combination of individual is also possible. The third example is again another subset that the grade of a student in this course would be more than above BC and you can see that for these there are several outcomes like A, A, B, B, B, etc. But the whole thing can also be considered to be a sample event. These concepts can be best described considering the notions of set theory and using Venn diagrams and I hope all of you are familiar with these things yes right. So, we will go through these things quickly can you can you read this. So, the notions of union of sets intersection of sets complementary set subsets and the null and void set. So, this is just a simple review for you guys you have gone through this we know what these things are and we will use Venn diagrams to explain these things. For an example how do you represent sample space a rectangle you can draw as bigger rectangle as you want a smaller rectangle as you want as long as all the possible outcomes are within that rectangle it is a sample space. And here we have an event E here we have an event F. So, the intersection E F or this is this shaded portion right you remember this what about concepts like subsets it does not have to be a circle it can be an ellipse whatever a geometrical form as long as it is a closed one. So, here F F is a subset of E right or E is a subset of and what is this shaded area the complementary set. So, you are all familiar with these things then there are certain rules of basic set theory which we need to go through and I guess you are familiar with these things as well the commutative law the associative law distributive law and de Morgan's rules. These are the prime rules preliminary rules you need to know when you deal with set theory and Venn diagrams. We are going to use this tool the set theory and that will have Venn diagram to explain notions of probability they are very good at explaining things that we want to explain through this. So, all of you are familiar with these rules take the first one the commutative does it make sense E union F is same as F union E. So, this is the union set of E and F which are way you write it similarly this is the intersection which are way you write it well what you can do instead of me explaining all these things whoever has forgotten about these basic rules try to use Venn diagrams to get through these basic laws very simple ones and these are the kinds of things that we are going to do in the next tutorial also whatever we get out of these rules like. So, here we comes to the axioms of probability and these axioms again can be explained very easily using Venn diagrams using the notions of set theory. The first axiom says that the probability of an event that P E or denotes probability of the event E that number has to be within 0 and 1 does that make sense to you. So, probability can at most be 100 percent at least can be 0 it cannot have a negative value can it no with that we proceed to the second axiom which says the probability that S is the sample space probability of having any of the all outcomes what is that 1 the outcomes have to be from the sample space. So, that is why we say that P of S is equal to 1 we go to the next axiom where we say that for a set of disjointed sets E i and E j all E i and E j are disjointed that means the intersection of E i E j for any i and j are equal to 0 the null set. So, for that the union of all these sets is nothing but the summation of all these sets I interpret that in a probabilistic way again try Venn diagrams to get through this basic law. These are the three axioms of probability which we use to build an axiomatic system of probability theories. We will not get into the details of probability theory we will just use these things for our daily life applications in engineering and sciences. Here are two outcomes from those axioms the first one says that the probability of the complementary of E is 1 minus probability of E is that does it make sense to you one can be replaced as probability of S. Since E and E c are disjointed the intersection of E and E c is 0 you can write that E plus E c is S and S is the samples set having a probability of 1. So, we can get the first one similarly you can get the second one. I do not think I have to explain that if you have gone through set theory you know these things in detail. So, try using Venn diagrams for things like this you will do this similar examples in the next tutorial. So, this is the review of what we have gone through today. We discussed the notions and the occurrence of probability in engineering technology etcetera I gave some examples from civil engineering perspective. Then we dealt with uncertainty of different kinds you remember the names I gave you epistemic and aleatory due to different reasons we have different names for these uncertainties. Then the notions of probability the frequentist and subjectivist notion of probability then we have gone through set theory very quickly because you know that all and then finally axioms of probability and the next state is going to be we are building upon this axioms of probability and to get to some basic theories that we can apply. I am going to leave with you with two things two simple problems. So, this one example in a city the success state for a particular disease for every doctor let us say is 90 percent and one out of the last nine died under doctor one of the doctor's treatment the other doctor that you have nearby nobody died out of the last nine. So, the question is who do you go to how do you decide what is your statistical inference from the kind of known data that you think about it the first one who let us say killed one percent of the last nine is it a zero probability for you if you go there to die under him think about that a similar example is there in the next slide I think you can read this let us say it is known that one in 50,000 air passengers carries a bomb in the flight to blow the airplane up and you know what is the maximum number of passengers that one carrier can have. So, what you do to make sure that there is no explosion you carry the bomb yourself and assure a safe journey does that make sense no right you say no, but why no well you can think about that with that we conclude for today and tomorrow we will start again with Venn diagram statistics and some problems. Thank you.


Hello and welcome to People's Dispatch. It has been two years since the countries and the governments of the world are discussing Pandemic Treaty at the World Health Organization. The idea is to come up with a negotiated draft or a text which can guide international response in event of a future pandemic. It also talks about prevention because it is talking about monitoring of pathogens, some of them dangerous pathogens and strengthening of health systems because that would ensure that the epidemics do not spread in case we are able to respond timely and effectively. However, while these seem to be stated intentions at least, when we look at the details, the way the negotiations are going at the level of international negotiating body, which is the place where the governments come and talk and discuss before coming up with the final text, when we look at those negotiations and what is happening, one cannot feel very confident that things are running in a manner which can really help people avoid the kind of devastation that we saw of life and death during the COVID-19 pandemic. But there are also countries and activists and civil society organizations who are at it to put a better language in the text so that things can be more pro-people and where access, affordability, and availability of medicines and other medical tools can be available for people when they need. Now, also important is to discuss a little about the World Trade Organization and what is happening at that level. We all know that India and South Africa had proposed something called a TRIPS waiver at the WTO basically asking that all kinds of intellectual property barriers should be lifted during the COVID-19 pandemic because that was becoming a barrier for developing countries, especially the least developed countries in accessing technology to manufacture and distribute some of the products which could save lives. Subsequently, 65, 65 developing countries came on board and sponsored that resolution. However, it was passed, some of the clauses were passed in a very half-hearted manner, very late, and now it seems that the news is coming that finally the WTO will not be able to give TRIPS waiver to medicines and other technologies. So, when we look at this entire scenario, it is important to see that it is only at the level of WTO now that we have the pandemic accord which can give some hope of equality and justice when it comes to pandemics. So, these are the things, this is the theme around which we will have our interview today and we are joined by another then K.M. Gopakumar who's a legal advisor with the Third World Network and organization which has been following these processes at the level of WTO as well as WHO very closely and being a strong voice of pro-people policies and language that should come in the text. So, welcome Gopakumar and we have had you before and it is always a pleasure to have you. So, maybe firstly we can talk about the international negotiating bodies 8th round which is going to start on 19th Feb and it is going to go on till 1st March which is quite a long time to discuss a negotiating text which means that there is an intent to try to close this within two years which is this year before the World Health Assembly in May. But what kind of information do we have from the 7th round which happened in December and do you think that issues such as access to medicines or access and benefit sharing system all of these where do we stand in the terms of talking about those issues. Thank you Jyotsana for this interaction. As we have seen in the last round that's the 7th round which was like two phases it happened in November as well as in December. What we observed is that there was a whole clamor for equity in 2020 and 2021 and which in a way gave fuel to this idea of a pandemic treaty. But as we progress I think the push for equity or this team is losing out and developed countries are showing their real colors. What exactly they want as of now is that a concrete legal obligations for enhancing surveillance network and sharing of information but at the same time they are not ready to provide a legal guarantee or not ready to undertake legal obligations to bring equity in the international health regime international health emergency regime especially in the context of pandemic. So what we mean by equity is that to take a concrete obligations to provide equitable access to the equitable access to health products in every countries by and large through the diversification of manufacturing base. So all the regions all the countries who do not have the manufacturing capabilities can produce these medicines and other required health products can access these products and which can enhance their ability to respond well. So far they can what you call contain this spread of the pandemic but developing developed countries are saying that they are not in a position to provide any kind of legal guarantee. So that is what we have observed and though there is an ambition or there is a push to conclude the whole negotiation by May it is a fact that we do not have a draft formally designated negotiating text we are still working on a draft negotiating text and the 7th INB decided that they will create around five subgroups to discuss various issues and the subgroups will then will provide a textual language to the bureau and then from there bureau will develop a new text. So this kind of attempt we have seen it and which has failed which has in a way delight the whole negotiation till date because it prevents the right of member states to provide language or provide textual proposal to the existing text. So if such a proposal such a textual proposal comes of course it may enhance the volume of the text but everybody's views are recorded in the negotiating text and that will set the stage for starting a negotiation so a text-based negotiation. So till date there was no text-based negotiation the discussions were by and on happened on concepts and ideas and now the time is running out there will be a clamour from developed countries and their associate to have a treaty by May so there is no point in having a treaty without a content so rather it will bear the danger of reinforcing the status quo as we talk about decolonizing global health this will be a vote to that kind of efforts and it will rather reinforce the colonial idea of global health once again so that's the danger we are facing right now. Wow so that's important and in a sense you are saying it is better to not have a text than a heavily compromised text which will not really help people access medicines and other medical tools right? Yeah it's not the text I am saying that it is better not to have a not to have a pandemic in a legal instrument which does not change the status quo. Absolutely. Currently the text what is proposed is that developing countries has to undertake more obligations but there is no guarantee that to get any kind of assistance and as well as in return of providing all these information developed countries are not ready to part the benefit of that information that is in terms of sharing the health products required for the preparedness and response to the pandemic. Right so maybe one good example is the access and benefit sharing system of what you are saying it gets I think best exemplified through that so can you talk a little about that as well? So normally the dominant perception is that whenever developing countries are demanding for equitable access it is always viewed as a charity, the countries have the developed countries and their entrepreneurs have this ability to develop products and why they part with the products with developing countries or in other words developing countries are demanding too much they are eyeing for the scale by demanding equitable access but that is not the truth. The truth is that without accessing those information the development of such products will be delayed if not possible. So everybody contribute to the development of this you know R&D of these health products related to whether it's a pandemic or a public health emergency of international concern every country who faces that in fact outbreak shares a lot of information through WHO to other countries or when sometimes directly posting the data on websites etc. So this information is critical to develop and further many of these pathogens also various types of variants occurs so you need to have access to those information that helps you to develop a robust product. So this has been completely ignored the idea or what is going on right now is that winners takes all. We get this information we develop the products but we don't part with you so this is unacceptable it's the only way or if not the only way but the best way to do that to have a legal regime which ensures access to information along with the benefit sharing so what is happening right now went on the ABS provision so the latest proposal of the European Union very clever way or want to create an obligation on countries to share the information and provide access to the pathogens which emerges in their borders or located or isolated within their borders but when it comes to benefit sharing there is no such legal obligation. It is there saying that okay you sign the contract etc but access is not depending upon the the condition for you know access is not depending upon your sharing share the benefit so in other words access is unconditional it is highly a colonial approach to say that you provide access and we don't share you the benefit and when it comes to benefit sharing you have intellectual property rights and then we will have a we will have a other conditions attached to it that okay so that's not acceptable. So the European Union proposal clearly reflects that mindset. Thank you very very important yes and the fact that how colonization is still continues in this negotiations I think these are important linkages to be brought about. Talking about something similar the way the pressures work when the INP7 happened in December just before the second round was to take place Geneva Health Files broke a story very important one which said that which revealed that the negotiator from Namibia who was a very strong voice from the global south was asked to return to the country and not negotiate and that happened under extreme pressures by the US and EU so can you throw a little more light on it and do you think that these kind of pressures are common in these negotiations and developed countries do such things tactically or more commonly and it wasn't really an aberration or how do these negotiations the back door in the in the sense of the negotiations work. I would say that what we have seen or read in December is a kind of a curtain riser but as we close to the more and more towards the deadline for the negotiations so we will see more of such pressures so developing country typically a developing country negotiator faces two types of pressure of course one from the developing developed countries and another from the secretariat so secretariat views and their opinions always favors or most of the time favors the views of developed countries so you do not get an objective answer most in most of the time so a developing country negotiator faces two types of opponents one is the developed countries and another is the secretariat itself so it's a very very very what you call tough environment they are working secretariat is supposed to provide a neutral view and even and taking into consideration of large the public good but that's not the case and as we go along we will see these pressures are building up I think the there will be two types of pressures one is that countries will be approached capital will be approached bilaterally by us or you and second to say stop the second types of pressure is that they will provide more funding for some small projects or other projects and say now you are getting it why are you negotiating this provision so we are resolving it bilaterally so this kind of tactics are well known and we expect more that is exactly what happened even in last in 2022 when IHR was a proposal US proposal on IHR was taken up US approach all the capitals from important capitals of developing countries and as the support so this kind of pressures will be there yeah but the again the way to this standard pressure is that more vigilance by the public health groups as well as the civil society organizations right so one when we talk about intellectual property we talk about access and benefit sharing system there is one more category which is very important and that is talking about the health workers because in COVID-19 we saw while the health workers were the backbone of providing all the support be it the frontline health workers community health workers who went in among the people and provided support or be it the nurses or the ward persons and doctors in the hospitals but the kind of harassment they faced they had to deal with extremely long hours of work and still they were not paid on time forget about being paid some bonus for the work that they were doing so in that sense where does the text stand today and what can be the demand from the health workers and their organizations and unions it's a very important issue and the draft negotiating text has a dedicated article to deal with the health and care workforce article seven in the draft negotiating text which has around four paragraphs which basically take care of the issues what you have mentioned safe working environment and access to goods and services which is required to perform their duty in a better way and also there was a commitment to assist developing countries to build the healthcare workers and also an obligation to invest in establishing sustaining and coordinating and mobilizing skilled and trained workforce also to an obligation it proposes to create a network of training institution at national and regional level and also to send us of expertise to strengthen and sustain skilled and competent public health health and care workforce so these are these provisions are there but the most important question who is going to provide financial resources for to establish such institutions and also to developing assist developing countries so here there is an obligation is created in all parties to assist developing countries it should be very clear who has the major responsibility it's very clear those who are having the financial means and technological means have that that's the developed countries okay so here putting this developed countries are abdicate developed countries are abdicating their historical responsibility which they owe you know from a global public health perspective to developing countries they are abdicating it okay it should be very clear this article the responsibility should be with the developed countries as well as the WHO right now this brings me to my last question which is now that the negotiations are beginning and after the February negotiations again we have the ninth round before the World Health Assembly which is also a long round what do you think should the developing countries be doing at this moment looking at the text and do we have any expectations or what do we expect the developing countries to do I think developing countries needs to convey the message very clearly that we are not interested in a treaty for the sake of it we need a treaty which changes the status quo and addressing the concerns on equity effectively so that should be the bottom line and I am sure they are capable of doing it there are cross regional support for the issue of equity and even developed countries also know that they have to give something on equity but the the effort is to minimize that extract maximum and give minimum so and therefore the pressure will come in in terms of like oh early harvest let us negotiate equity provisions later not now and let us have the let us have the legal instrument by May we will resolve all the issues later because there is a US election is coming US election if Trump wins US may move out of WHO therefore we need to have a the legal instrument at the earliest so this kind of campaigns or you know arguments may put it up to convince developing countries to make a compromise but that may kind of compromise would be disastrous for developing countries because they would be ending up undertaking obligation which goes beyond their means and also not getting anything in return so so thank you Gopal the main takeaway is that we need a legal instrument which puts the language of equitable and just accessibility in very core form and if that is not happening we do not need this legal instrument we should continue to fight for a better one that is a takeaway thank you so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us


Two pieces of advice, I invest as much in myself as you can.  I mean, you've got all kinds of potential, all the people in this room, you know, you're lucky to be in this country, got a good education, but most people go through life using up a very, very small part of their potential. And so anything you do that invests in yourself, that's the best investment you can possibly make. And then I would follow my passion. I'm telling you, becoming a learning machine and a person who invests in themselves works. I invest at least $100,000 a month in my own education. Traveling, mentors, coaches, consultants that I pay. The more I invest in myself, every year my income's gone up massively. There is a magic in investing in yourself. People get it, invest in real estate's good. Oh, okay, I do that, invest in stock market, that's good. I buy land, I invest in buy businesses, it's all good. But nothing touches the ROI on investing in my own brain.