This is Startup Resort Fund. In 1996, Apple had lost $867 million. And by 1997, they were on the verge of bankruptcy. According to the New York Times, they cut one third of their workforce or about 90 days out from running out of money. In a Hail Mary attempt to survive, the board brought back Steve Jobs as CEO. He eliminated 70% of their product plans, launched the now famous Think Different ad campaign, and reimagined their entire product line. Just a few short years later in 2001, they launched the iPod, which propelled them out of the red and into the black. Fast forward to today, and Apple is now worth over $2.3 trillion. Every company has to navigate setbacks. It's an inescapable part of the journey. This is the final installment of a three-part Bright Live podcast series where we break down how to build a distinct brand. In this episode, we are focusing on navigating and overcoming setbacks. On the panel, we have Jacob Pashnik, the founder of Lettuce Bro, Manu Savay, the founder of Alpha IO, and Lauren Brocastle, the founder of Sweet Lawrence. In this segment of the series, we discuss dealing with implicit bias while raising capital, why embracing big problems can lead to big growth, and how making the decision to become an entrepreneur is like switching religions. Welcome back to our last hour, how to build a distinct brand. On this topic, we'll cover navigating setbacks. I'm Nick, this is Diego. We're from Startup and Storefront. To my right, we have Manu Savay from Alpha IO, Lauren Castle from Sweet Lawrence, and Jacob Pashnik from Lettuce Grow. Let's get into it. All right, here's a setback. I'll give you guys a story. So right now we're in Benny Boy Brewing. You guys may notice some tanks behind us. We started this project pre-pandemic. We have to get approval to make beer or wine. In order to do that, it has to go to City Hall. In order to do that, you have to meet the council member and there's some politics that goes on. Our appointment for City Hall approval was St. Patrick's Day, and City Hall shut down two days prior to that because of the pandemic. And so now our project was in free fall. The bank was really almost walking away. And so we already had investors. We had already spent probably $100,000 just to get to this point. And it was like everything was about to fall apart. And the pandemic was not helping and everyone was in chaos, if you might remember what that was like. And so that was a real setback we had literally to walk through. Our tenant was also thinking, so Benny Boy Brewing was also thinking about canceling the whole thing. Who wants to open a restaurant or a brewery or a cider during a pandemic? Didn't make any financial sense. Nothing made sense at the time other than just like let's just anchor down and figure all this out. And we also didn't know how long it would be. We had to navigate by talking to the bank, moving some things with the seller. We were all in the same position but really we just committing to forward progress even though you're really flying blind. If you remember what that was like at the time and even the notion of building something where people would be indoors again was a huge question mark at the time. In LA, if you had any indoor space you were shut down as a business which is why there's a beautiful beer garden outside. And so the land of pivoting, you all have amazing setbacks. Let's get into it. Manu, you have my favorite one. Oh my God, yeah, I have a few. But let's start right at the beginning. So early days of Alpha, Manu has left her high-paid job in finance, has also left her husband, has decided to go start this crazy company and move to another country too. It was like everything kind of like came down together. And so we went out, we built out a deck, we did a business plan of, you know for the initial concept of Alpha which was an art company. The idea was to democratize the visual art market. We didn't know exactly how we were gonna do it but we had kind of like an idea vision. We went, we made a pitch deck and we started talking to people. And then I was in New York one day at my stepmother's office and she's an investment banker. And she's like, oh, this dude, you should talk to him. This lawyer, he represents this angel investor. He could be the right fit for this project. So we talked to the lawyer. The lawyer was like, he's gonna love this. He's been trying to find a tool to make the creative economy fairer for so long. This is perfect. And we're like, okay, cool. So we go and we have a call of this guy. The guy like gets it. He's like, you know what? You're trying to raise half a million. You don't need half a million. You need a million. Flight of New York, we were in Brazil at the time so we can meet in person, discuss the new diligence, go through the whole process. We sat in a room of a lawyer for a week, drafted this like crazy agreement. And like part of the agreement was we had to move from Brazil to New York which is the most expensive city in the world to actually go and build the company. So he starts sending a little bit of money, like $10,000 a month, $10,000 another month. So we're like, okay, we got our visas and we moved to New York. So we get to New York and I think it was like the second or third month in. We'd rented an office, done a really expensive branding process with Big Human which was like, they did the branding for Gemini. That's the agency we hired because we had a million dollars, right? And then he just comes by one day, sits down with us and says, listen girls, I've had a personal issue. Not gonna be able to send any more money. And how much was left on the table? So of the million? Of the million we received over small installments, 200. That was the total. 20%. 20%. And you were left high and dry. And like a year and a half because he trickled it down slowly and we were always trying to find out what was happening and the company was starting to grow and we had this big project coming in the summer and obviously it was terrifying. It was awful. I had literally no money to go out to dinner in a really, really cheap place with my friends for a while but we made this decision to really focus on creating sources of revenue. We started to find these bigger B2B deals and that's how we became a B2B company because we found out that the sales effort to sell to a corporation is exactly the same as to sell to an individual that's gonna buy one unit. That's why marketplaces are so hard. People don't grasp how hard it is to kind of like leave that scenario and we pivoted. And we got a licensing agreement with Zola and we started placing art in hotels and we started kind of like finding ways to like make ends meet but it was still really, really, really hard. And then when we started to find our groove I had a horrible bike accident and broke the right side of my body. So I couldn't move my arm, my right arm for six weeks. I had to like move back to Brazil, move in with my mom. She had to like wash my hair, feed bee, et cetera. And like while trying to run the company and trying to figure everything out. So definitely character building. So you're not the same company today if that investor hadn't pulled out. Like there's just no way that you would have been able to see that pivot and become who you are without that. Do you think it's the anger that fueled you though? Honestly, because to me it's like a real motivator, right? For someone to turn their back on you and for you to want to prove them wrong. There's several things. There's a lot of fire that comes from that. There's several things, right? I had some of it approved to myself that I hadn't like quit all of these things for nothing and that I could make this idea which was so important to me work regardless of the application of it. The other thing is it was maybe the best thing that ever happened to us because if we had gotten the full million, we weren't prepared. I was too young. Like I was in my twenties, like early twenties. And we would have burned through all of that money and we wouldn't have found a formula that actually connected with an audience and was scalable because that's what happens all across the Ivy Leagues of America. All of these overfunded business plans that never find product market fit because they don't have to because they can raise on a pitch deck. And for women generally, we already have to show way more kind of like attrition. After that happened to us, we had to show that we were a serious company before we could even think of raising a dollar. And so in a way I'm very, very grateful and he's one of my biggest allies to this day because he didn't do it out of- Yeah, he was really going through something. He was really going through something. It's not that he wanted to invest. Like he drafted all the agreements. He paid maybe 70 grand in legal fees on the due diligence that he wanted to do. So yeah, you learned way more through failure and you layered way more through pandemics and like all of the crazy stuff that has been poured down on us than if everything goes right. You win or you learn. You win or you learn. Lauren, what is, obviously you have a health setback early in your life. I think when I was diagnosed with cancer and I was 22, I mean that was like, I think that was a pivotal moment for me because thankfully I was cured. I saw life in like two ways.  And I think like that's what turned me into an entrepreneur. It's what lit a fire in my belly because I think once you really see what it's like, sometimes I think we can feel invincible and until something happens to you or someone you love and then you're like, oh wait a minute, life is like super precious and I like wanna live with intention every day. And so I think like learning that lesson at a young age made me feel a lot older than early 20s and it made me just feel like whatever I have to do has to have a positive impact on the world. I have to love it. I don't really care about the petty stuff anymore. And I think when I realized my strength of just like overcoming that and like the mental strength, the physical strength and how impactful natural foods are to your body, like that just lit me up in a way that was just like, there's no, that was my truth. And so it was like I have to find a way to like make this kind of my calling. But when we launched actually the company, like when I launched Sweet Lawrence, our original recipe wasn't plant-based. It wasn't gluten-free. It wasn't nut-free. It was really just like a natural cookie dough and the goal was like just to take out any chemicals, anything processed and just make a delicious natural cookie dough that people could bake and that could really compete with the conventional stuff on the shelf. And I will say like it wasn't product market fit yet because it wasn't different enough from the big guys to really compete in the major supermarkets in the US. And so once I started getting national distribution in like the big supermarkets, I started to get comments from people that would say like, oh my husband's gluten-free. Can you create a gluten-free line or my kid has a nut allergy or I'm trying to be plant-based. And so I created one skew, like one product that was just basically free of all the top allergens and sensitivities and was like, I'm just gonna test this. And it became our number one skew overnight.  I didn't start the company that way, but it's really, you know, I saw the product market fit as like, okay, like if you don't pivot, like we would have died if we didn't, I think like pivot and just say like, how do we create a product that no one can compete with? We have a question from KP here. Our first question of the session comes from Caitlin, who wants to know what it was like to go out and raise money as a female founder and if there was any implicit bias in the investor meetings. Of course, of course, of course.   So it's just like the statistics are there to speak for itself. But it's way better now than it was probably when we started, like the amount of funds that have as a mandate to invest in women, to invest in minorities, to invest in Latinx, et cetera. And they're gaining a lot of power because guess what? We are a better business. Even though we only get 2% of funding dollars, I believe we produce 12% of unicorns. So it's a very powerful statistic to ignore. So women have very specific characteristics as well when it comes to fundraising. And I heard this a lot from investors early on, or close advisors. You need to be more aggressive with your projections. You're being conservative. A man walks into a room and he's already Google on his immediate approach. As women, we don't want to disappoint. So we're showing forecasts that we actually achieve. I achieve my forecast year after year. And eventually you start finding the kind of right kind of investor that understands that as well. But I would say use our differences, like what makes being a woman so special, like the multitasking, the ability to look at a lot of different problems at the same time in your advantage and find the people that understand that. And you'll be able to fundraise and you'll be able to fundraise with the right partner because the investor should be a partner, someone that's going to be there that you can call them up when you have a problem. Because they want to help you. You're on the same team. But yeah, there's been crazy comments in my career. Like, there was a guy on LinkedIn that literally posted on an article that I wrote about fundraising that women have smaller brains than men because of the hunter-gatherer mentality. It was like something so... Pseudo-science.  Instead of like hiding behind the keyboard in the comments, I print screened that. I wrote another article. The whole thing went viral. The guy was fired from his company on LinkedIn. And that's kind of like our responsibility to like stick together for each other and not let these kinds of things being okay anymore. And so I'd say that part of my life's work as well is bringing more opportunity into, you know, diverse founders. And my time is always available. If someone needs help, I help so many different female founders that are getting started with just getting, you know, pitches prepared or connecting with the right people. And you know, and we've introduced each other to so many people, it's mutual. Because then they're out raising their other round and they'll find someone that is interested in a blockchain use case and they'll send them my way.  No one wants, and so I think the tide is changing because women are becoming more of a powerhouse and people are taking notice. Lauren, do you have any comments?   Like this is gonna be a billion dollar business. Like this is gonna change the food industry. So like, I think I definitely experienced that to some degree, but I think just as she was saying, like I'm passionate about the food industry. Most shoppers of most consumables, but definitely food are women. But yeah, women control the food in most homes. And so I think that, you know, looking at that stat and being like, well, why are men making most of the food then? Like I'm the perfect person to create this product because I know how to appeal to them. I am that customer. And first of all, getting to know myself enough to know that like I am a CEO. I want this responsibility. I know I can do it. And then I think once you have that confidence and vision, like no one should get in your way, whether it's a man or a woman.  I've never raised institutional funding. So like I've raised from some friends and family. So I've never had to deal with it on that level. But yeah, at the beginning it was like a joke to some people and you just have to prove them wrong. Any negativity, I turned that into like a positive. Like I was like, I can't wait to prove you wrong. I'm an investor and a founder. Her name is Brooke and every time she fundraises, she dyes her hair pink. And it's her way of like showing up to the table and almost giving this FU. And it's also her cape. And I just love that she does it. And it's really, it's beautiful honestly. It's a big FU, but at the same time it's, it's you're already doing like her call out as you're already thinking it, I'm just wearing it. And it's this, it's interesting. We'll bring up Brian Vaughn now. We got another question here. Brian found it interesting when it was brought up earlier in the evening that having too much capital could be a bad thing and how it relates to finding product market fit. So with that in mind, could the difficulty in raising capital be a good thing? Yeah. So we were talking about this this week actually because we are going through a second crypto winter. My second. I went through crypto winter number one as well in 2018 and you know, very different scenario this time around because like capital has dried out-ish but it's still there. They have massive dry powder. They're looking for good use cases to invest in. So you're still gonna get the money. You're gonna make a smaller route. We were raising 20 before this whole thing imploded and we stopped. Like I'm not gonna go raise a series A in these conditions but then we set out to raise three and now we're gonna have to do five because we're completely oversubscribed.  And it's like we're just listening and the other side of it is it was really hard to hire. We have a tight labor market like what we were experiencing a year ago like especially for a startup it's like you're competing against, you know, a really real meta. Facebook once again, you know? And crazy salaries and crazy benefits things that you are not able to give and even if they are passionate even if they do believe in the vision like when it's that level of difference in terms of salaries, it becomes competitive and you know, and that also drives like the crazy fundraising round. So it's kind of like it's nice to have a little bit of a cool down so we can have more efficiency and we can see the real businesses that are supposed to be here be here and gain market share because guess what? Competition is gonna spend less money on marketing and the best product at the end of the day will win and it's creating a lot of opportunity in the ecosystem. It's, you know, J.B. Morgan used to say a blood on the streets. I'll say as an investor it makes my job easier actually because it makes you sharper but also you kind of go back to what you know when it comes to startup investing but at the same time it's like you know the strong survive and you can pick that out in a conversation really quickly. You know if there's an idea on the table that a startup has that they're not convinced about yet. They think they might be convinced but they're really not yet or the product market isn't there or the velocities don't match if they're in CPG. Velocities being like they're not going off the shelf like Lawrence as an example. And so it makes it almost easier as an investor which is a really weird concept but it certainly saves me a lot of time I'll say. Go ahead Angela. Angela really enjoyed hearing the stories and how our guests overcame their setbacks in career, health and fundraising. So she was curious if knowing what they know now if they had any advice for their past selves as they were going through these setbacks. I have setbacks maybe daily you know and I've had like pivotal life setbacks and then just like the everyday you know life setbacks but we can't really control what the universe delivers you know but you can just control your attitude towards it. So I personally don't see anything as inherently good or bad and I just sort of like okay how am I supposed to deal with this? And some of the things, some of the like what the worst things that have happened to me you know if I embrace them you know I've had like an amazing outcome. Like my previous company was in the financial markets we ran trading platforms and the worst thing is to go down you know and our system went down you know and like JP Morgan was our biggest one of our biggest customers in yelling oh this cost us a hundred million dollars blah blah blah. But calling them you know to explain the problem and it was like one of the worst you know phone calls in my life or it started off that way but it built this like really understanding relationship and then you know that person at JP Morgan ended up being my strongest ally you know which then led to so much more growth of our business. So you know I could have run away and I wanted to go bury my head because it could have been like my company could have been over you know with that issue but instead you know I just went with it and that's I see that you know that happens all the time so I just like something bad happens like okay who am I supposed to meet now or what am I supposed to learn now? Angel I have an example for you I'm a real estate developer and I thought COVID was the worst of it you know we had like tenants failing and there was a big mess and then we navigated COVID and now inflation started and now the debt markets are insane and so now I'm dealing with the banks trying to charge us a tremendous amount more money for a project that would have cost half during COVID and so here I thought oh I'm done I'm so sharp I think it's over and now the debt markets are going bananas and I think to Jacob's point what I'm learning is like it's really never over and the world's never gonna really go your way unfortunately and you're never gonna win the lottery so just have a maybe attitude have like to Jacob's point have it like maybe this is a good thing maybe this is good at the end of the day every yeah it is good I think every weather makes you sharper like I've gotten so much better at being a developer and investor because of these things and so I think the things just but in the moment sometimes it's hard to see that but I think ultimately it makes you sharper I think you have to have that mentality though like I want to get sharper because of this because otherwise you're just like oh my god it's COVID like we should shut our doors or you know so I think if you have the mentality of like all right this is an interesting problem like how do I get smarter because of this like I'm gonna figure out how to succeed and like get through this I think as long as you have that kind of winner mentality like it's amazing what doors open up I could have never predicted what happened in my past would lead to you know my future so like I think as long as you have that mentality like you just become sharper and more passionate about what you're doing yeah in terms of advice to my past self it's just this too shall pass I want to talk about this because this comes up on our podcast all the time the impending recessions here arguably it's here I think it gets really weird by February are you guys doing anything different from either a marketing allocation a fundraising perspective you know there are some public sort of companies that are now doing layoffs are you doing anything to hunker down are you playing more offense are you playing some defense what is how what's your mindset going into Q4 Q1 of next year we're closing a round your fund rate you close it yeah yeah so that'll give us plenty of plenty of runway but something crazy happened this week and I'm always listening regardless of the moment of the market et cetera but like I'm an economist and so I really believe in behavioral economics and in the power of like whatever it is that you know consumer sentiment is feeling is gonna happen this is a fabricated recession like what we're living through right now and so last week I got a message on LinkedIn from someone that I considered to be a competitor and you know that I take these calls of a certain grain of salt because the same thing has happened over and over again and I'm always like okay let me take this call and just listen and then as I started to listen I noticed that who I thought was my competitor actually the leadership has no interest in enterprise they are very interested in trying to save their dying business which is consumer to consumer and so the person that called me actually called me and he didn't even know this because I spun him after I showed him my front end tech he doesn't have front end et cetera and so we ended the call with him saying I actually want to leave this organization and I have a list of 400 companies that have tried to work with us that I'm willing to bring over that's quite the bargaining chip and so listen because there will be a lot of opportunities let's get advice anything you guys are doing I mean I think we're definitely watching cash like I haven't raised institutional funding we've built a profitable business so like we're just watch you know we're just really on the business people probably eat more cookies during a recession would have made it cookies are recession free cookies are recession free that was your cyclical question that's why I got into cookies you're fine they're a recession proof but I will say like you know we've gone through price increases and like I think whatever we can do like we're doing extra promotions we're we've never done marketing before really like our growth has been word of mouth and so like it's the first time we're actually like really leaning into like introduce us to new households and I think that will help us no matter what happens it'll keep us even or growing and so cookies are recession proof so you know alcohol they need that comfort like it doesn't people need that comfort during hard times Jacob you have a high price item to some extent right so the demographic of your consumers is probably someone with a little more affluent and so how are maybe not but how are you you know what the price of iceberg lettuce is in Australia right now you do what is it it's twenty to thirty dollars a head a head wow yeah price space are you exporting to Australia no not yet but that's gonna happen here so if I bought a hundred of those I started selling my heads of lettuce to Australia so saying this is like arbitrage right yeah I mean this is an inflation and a price spike hedge for consumers but yeah there is an upfront investment so I'm spending a lot of time just making it more affordable to consumers there'll be financing plans yeah like a firm or something no exactly yeah we work with a firm now but we've got a new unit coming out early next year and then we'll be financing that so it'll be like essentially like fifty dollars a month for everything oh cool so customer will easily grow fifty dollars a produce a month so they'll return will be there they'll have that hedge against the coming do you market that do you market that in some way around we market everything you know but it's hard you know people do have this resistance they think oh I don't have a green thumb and you know so it's like that's like the big one that we need to overcome and it's usually once people start growing with us it's not the economics that really drives them it's the experience they just love it so much and they love the quality of the food and sharing the experience with their kids and giving it to their you know friends and neighbors and you know making growing their own food but there's just so big resistance because we're used to going to the grocery store but for thousands and thousands and thousands of years we grew our own food it's only in the last hundred and fifty years we stopped so we're just trying to get people back you know reconnect people can you plan ahead for looking ahead like let's say iceberg lettuce in the U.S. climbs 10X can you even plan ahead for something like that like I know crop futures are a thing Nick loves iceberg lettuce yeah Nick is very concerned from Australian Nick climbs 10X I'm really bankrupt yeah no but what's happening you know we have so much water issues right so you know farms are going to start diverting water away from low dollar crops to high dollar and so it's going to go away from this stuff that you really need to like nourish your brains you know and that's where you're going to get the spikes from and so it's definitely going to happen here for people listening entrepreneurs future entrepreneurs what is what advice would you give them if they wanted to start a company today in this in this environment they have a great a good idea they're ready to go what's the thing that you would tell them since we're talking about navigating setbacks given all of the setbacks they've talked about it's like the Jewish faith if you want to convert you got to you got to be sent away three times and I would say no don't do it if you come back three times and it's the same idea and you really really want to do it then I'll say okay go to market first don't build anything if your product is you know whatever it is that requires the technology feature map it out in analog life find someone that will pay you for that and then you go and you build like don't build they're not going to come don't build it and they will come they will not come like you know make sure that you build when they're already there let's talk about that so Eric's got a question we'll bring him on stage and then we'll wrap you because this is actually a really good question that there's people in this room specifically my guy Owen who's dealing with this right now Eric welcome go ahead Eric wants to know what it's like to weigh the decision to pivot versus staying the course how do you know when to choose which direction I talk about pivoting like this so let's pretend I wanted to get in really good shape but I'm eating cookies instead of let us grow every day at some point I would go to the scale and I would realize like this isn't working right and so someone told me some really good advice like your startup shouldn't feel like you're pushing a boulder up a mountain every day and I think there are certain very influential people on YouTube that have told you to be in a basement work harder hustle and you'll eventually carve this stone and it doesn't work that way actually I think the thing is to I think Manu said it one of you to listen you really have to listen to the market because they'll tell you they'll tell you what they're really into and when you're not listening you're continuing to shovel cookies in your mouth let's say and expecting to lose weight except Lawrence cookies who are amazing and very healthy but I would say like listening to the market but really being attuned to listening so if you continue to do your sales pitch and your conversion rate is like one client every 300 emails or 300 phone calls it's that's not it you have to do something else you have to go left yeah you can use statistic to base that decision you know if you know that an e-commerce convergence rate for a bad website is 1% and you're converting over that then you know okay maybe I just need to adjust a few other things and see if the funnel changes but if you're converting half a percent like you know Diego said you know go find something that's gonna convert higher and you don't have to do it immediately you know try the two things once again one against the other yeah I think like I mean if you're pivoting I think it's quite obvious something's not working yeah I'm obsessed with our consumer consumers told us everything they've told us all the problems and I've just tried to keep continuing to fix those problems and create a product that solves it so I think like you know there's a different stream like completely pivoting like your business idea like I think like we've done that you know so potentially you know you need to do that to succeed and like that's okay I think like very few companies end up exactly how they started just continually improving and pivoting and tweaking to continually get product market fit is something I think like all of us continually do I mean you know you're just creating a brand new product to fit the financial climate right now you know it's like you're just always finding ways to grow and solve new problems when I was going through white comedy it was a company that started off to like test your blood and at home like an at home blood pressure kid they're on us not there in us funny and then and then it wasn't working like it wasn't it doesn't work her name was Elizabeth and so they pivoted to this company called Magic which it was like you would just go to a search bar you would type in what you want so let's say a tiger to show up at your house in 20 minutes and they would figure that out and that became their pivot and they've raised a ton of capital and it was banana I mean bananas I have so many questions there's so many questions yeah but it was basically like a place like Google but instead of quite asking questions you would say I would like this and then they would email you back saying it's going to cost X and if you were down they would deliver whatever it was I mean the craziest of things we got another one with Andrew Andrew coming in we'll bring Andrew to the stage Andrew wants to know what advice we have for someone who's in a good corporate position and considering leaving their job to start their own company once again don't do it yeah like all it's the opportunity cost is so much higher the amount of time that it's going to take you to actually get success is 10 years to get to the level that of what you were making in your corporate job is going to take you 10 years but if that's okay with you if you're like I don't care I want to take a massive pay cut I really do need to do this thing and I want to change the world just keep it in mind 10 years till you get back to like that same level of income I don't know if 10 years is true but I would just say it's better that they have 10 years in their minds you're going to scare them you're going to scare Andrew I think entrepreneurship it sounds sexy because like you can be your own boss you get to do your own dream you get to and like it is I mean I'm an entrepreneur and like I'd never want to work for someone else I'm pretty unemployable at this point too so I have to do my own thing but like I think you really have to be so passionate about whatever your idea is really see a business case behind it like you know you really see the numbers and business plan behind this idea and it's also your strengths that like you know I think it fits all those things and you're that driven for it go for it I mean I'm the biggest advocate for people falling their own dreams and being entrepreneurs but it is not easy you know so you have to be that obsessed with the concept and see that vision so clearly that you're like cool I don't care if it takes 10 years I'm living my dream Yeah it's a big question if you're doing it because you don't want to have a boss you know your business becomes your boss so it's definitely not freedom it's a lot more freedom having a job but I think yeah if you have a passion and you see the world in some way and that your product or your service is gonna improve it and make it that way and you believe in it I think go for it like you know maybe get some friends or get some other people to you know throw yeah to give them your opinions but some of the things that I've done you know people thought I was absolutely crazy I mean they still think would let us grow but my previous business was a weather derivatives trading platform and we did like over a trillion dollars of weather trading but before people thought I was insane so no one would have said yeah go do this but I still did it so you just have to have a lot of passion and conviction and for me I always like I have to see it like in an ulterior universe this company exists I would say when you're done learning I think if you feel like you're done learning at your job right now or like your boss is in doing the things that are keeping you stimulated and either you know find a new position because entrepreneurship honestly is the ultimate learning about yourself as a human about you become everything you become a jack of all trades in some sense and so I think if you're done learning it's probably time to switch and that could just be a new job that could be a new function that could be a new company final thoughts wow this has been a lot huh navigating setbacks is my favorite topic this is all we talk about on the podcast because this is the reality of it this is how people learn the most truly let's go deep let's go deeper we'll end here what what what type of let's call it like whether you are in therapy whether you talk to a therapist you know what are the things that you've found mental health wise has transformed the way you think about business I'm all for I've been in therapy I'm actually on break now but I've been in therapy for almost 20 years I've done a lot of different kinds of therapy from like therapy with my mom to group therapy when I was a teenager because I was not easy to therapy alone for many years to the the couples counseling with my former co-founder and so you need therapy even if it isn't you know you don't need a traditional therapist per se but you need to find your own safe space because entrepreneurship can be very very lonely but I leave a lot of my frustration out as well and endurance sports and it is therapy for me it's meditation it's movement it's meditation and it's therapy at the same time right you're pushing your boundaries every single moment you're doing things which are supposed to be impossible to your body and you realize that it's all mental and it's exactly the same thing as entrepreneurship and then when you get to the top and you come down it all feels so amazing and you feel like you are unstoppable because you are we are so connected with nature we are so connected with everything around us you brought up Eckhart Tolle Eckhart Tolle is the man Eckhart Tolle you know and he even talks about this like when you find your inner purpose it needs to match your outer purpose or else you will not be living in a happy fulfilled life and I think that's exactly what it is for us right we found our inner purpose in a way with these companies they are a reflection of who we are of what we believe in and so and you know you're able to kind of like enter this place of presence where you're fully disconnected from everything else and that's what I feel like you know is are these moments of quiet or these moments that you can achieve you know on your own on a hike or you know when you're even reflecting about your company in the shower sometimes like it feels like you're just like you leave this earth and you're onto a better place and so it's like find presence in anything you do and find your own safe space so that you can share because don't let it get lonely you know it's it's it can my sister's a life coach and she did something with me that like changed my life it was so simple but she had me draw like a wheel and it had wedges in it and each wedge is like a section of your life like spiritual you know business romantic like health family friends travel whatever all the things that compile your life and she was like you know shade in like how full each of those are and I think it's just a really good lesson like or exercise for everyone to do because it really helps you see the energy you put towards things makes up your life so when I started my business like in terms of friends or like romantic side like that part was like you know it was a little bit shaded and it wasn't like this full beautiful wheel that was gonna like keep this wheel going around and around evenly and I and I you know I think that's when I started to realize like we all have control of our own life and I think that you gotta look at like what makes you happy and what fills you up and to me it's like balance I need to make sure all parts of my life I don't wanna ignore parts cause otherwise something ends up not feeling right so just making sure you're feeding friends nurturing friendships having time to actually have a partner if that's what you're looking for you know things like that cause otherwise you won't get the life you want so that and working out is huge for me just like feeling good being connected to your body meditation and having a really good support system like my family and friends or everything to me like because of them I can like handle any amount of stress Jacob final thoughts? Cold plunge Cold plunge Sauna That's what helps me Yeah It's very Nordic I think we all are in agreement in so many things but the nourishing of the body leads to nourishment of the mind and you have to take care of both you need balance and on that note I'd like to thank everyone here for joining us I'd like to thank everyone online for joining us this has been a lot of fun from all of us on stage we just started a storefront Bright Live and all of our guests we thank you and we will see you next time next again if you made it this far I bet you loved the episode so you should join our YouTube channel membership for only $2.99 a month this gets you access to one the whole unabridged conversation two, you get the episodes on Monday one day earlier three, you get two additional entries to our giveaways check out our Instagram to see what we've given away and four, you get access to seasons one through three that's over a hundred episodes of wisdom and life-changing advice that you're waiting for join


Okay welcome traders to this week's live trade analysis session with me Patrick Munnally. If you can hear me and you can see the tick me a welcome screen if you just type a Y in the chat box so I know we are good to go. Type a Y in the chat box if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen so that I know we can start here. Testing audio one two three. Testing audio one two three if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen you can just type a great stuff thanks. Okay so before we jump into today's presentation as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer specifically for today what's important is that the views expressed by me are solely mine they're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So for those of you here for the first time just a brief introduction to who I am. After I graduated from Kings College London I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search specifically for technology businesses. So essentially I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets sometimes quite literally overnight.  I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling after some early beginner's luck I racked up some pretty solid gains. However as is often the case my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed I began to average down into losing positions. Basically giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit. So that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months or two years was a time during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suit my personality. All of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset understanding the true nature of trading being simply a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities you lose the emotional investment in that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 since 2013. I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering again annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to relieve consistent returns in the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tickmail. I provide a daily market outlook with a breakdown of both the fundamental and technical drivers for the session ahead. You can access that through the Tickmail blog and you can enter your email address to get updates on that to get automatic updates for those posts. In addition to that I also run I'm sorry in addition I also provide three to five setups that I'm tracking in the market through the Tickmail trading view account. You can subscribe to that through a trading view and get automatic updates for the for the trade alerts that that I'm tracking in the market and most recently I've been responsible for running the Tickmail e-mini futures trading group strategy group through this Facebook group where I provide the daily trade plan directly into the into the feed here. It's a short video last about three to five minutes what I do is I basically give the exact setups that I'm looking for in the the e-mini S&P for the cash trading session in New York. So it's a short video but it basically gives you the levels that I'm looking to enter and exit the market for any given day and for those who want to take things to the next level I now also run a telegram channel whereby I livestream the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York and it's essentially a screen share where I'm giving commentary exactly what I'm seeing in the markets exactly where I see the opportunities and then I'm giving the specific trades that I'm taking and how I'm managing them and how I'm exiting them. Just last month we had 123 points of profit in there and that equates to about seven and a half percent return for me but since we set this group up in April I've delivered over 1400 points of profit and on a very moderate risk profile that would equate roughly to about 140 percent return on capital. So what I'll do now is I'll just post a link into the chat here it's the the Facebook group is free to join you just have to request membership and I'll add you to that group to get the daily setup there. The telegram channel if you if you want if you're interested in accessing that you can you can reach out to me through LinkedIn I'll post my profile in the chat as well send me a direct message and I'll explain more about the telegram channel and for those who are interested in tracking the trade setups that I post I'll just post that link the trading link in there for for that channel for you to follow along. So that gives you a brief overview of my background and where I'm coming from so let's now jump into the charts and we are going to start with the S&P 500 I'm just going to quickly have a sip of water first and also I just also would like to mention if you have any questions or there's a chart you want me to take a look at but I don't cover in my my deck here then just just put it into the chat or the Q&A and I won't answer straight away but I'll come back to that at the end and I'll cover off any questions you guys might have. So S&P 500 this is the e-mini futures contract and we have seen a decent sell-off here whilst the S&P trades below the 45-85 area now I'm looking for a test of the trend line support here we also have the median line of a pitch fork overlaid from the prior cycle high using the corrective low and then the new cycle high and we've got monthly projected range support coming in at 44.60 so I'm going to be watching the price action here watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and initially looking for a retest of the monthly pivot from below so that's up to 46.21 and then we'll see how the price action develops whether or not we are going to get another leg to the downside in a more protracted corrective move and then look for another bounce or we are going to we're going to put in a base here and ultimately trade higher into the the back end of the year retest cycle highs and then on to the the top side of the ascending trend channel here at 48.56 so there are going to be opportunities on the long side hit from the from the trend line or if we break the trend line on the closing basis then there will be short opportunities looking for a move down back into this 42.50 area. NASDAQ also seeing some weakness potential here that the NASDAQ has completed a three-way corrected move let me show you what I'm talking about so we have the swing high this swing low and we have just well can we just shy so we would have a three-way correction here the quality objective testing 15.694 those prior highs so I've been watching for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and again looking for a retest of the monthly pivot from below as the initial target Jen you have do you have a question saying you've raised your hand if you want if you can just type it into the into the chat box or into the Q&A box and I'll come to it at the end so this is the next level I'm watching in terms of the NASDAQ we had a great trade in the NASDAQ after the last correction we were watching for a bullish reversal pattern from the trend line here we've got this pin bar and we played that all the way up into the top side of the channel so let's see how price responds here at that 15,694 level now again we get more information on this test because if price fails to find support there then what we're going to be thinking is looking on the short side so looking for a move that breaks this internal trend channel first pull back into it access resistance and then we get the extension down into the major trend line and if we fail there then we'll be thinking about a move back into the 14,400 level but for now our focus is on this test here of the 15,694 we'll see if buyers step back in Dow Jones just let this load so similar story here in the Dow what I'm looking for is a move to test trend line support here and these prior lows that brings us in at 34,200 level so I'm watching there for bullish reversal patterns thinking initially of a corrective move to retest the monthly pivot from below the key area here on this chart for me is this this resistance area at 15,460 if we fail there then that's going to suggest we're in for a bigger corrective move and we will be thinking about an extension down into monthly range support 32,900 as the next logical objective but if we can get through there on a housing basis then that's going to suggest that this correction is over and we're going to retest and take out prior cycle highs on route to a move up towards 37,000 would be the minimum upside objective there next one in terms of these equity indexes is the Russell 2000 I'm watching here this trend line support so if we can hold get a bullish reversal then we'll look initially for a test of the monthly pivot from below 2273 and then on to this prior resistance area up towards 2363 if we fail there then we know that we're likely to have an equality objective to the downside taking us into the monthly range support 1966 so this is going to be a key area because if we get through there on a closing basis then we look to recapture prior cycle highs and take that out and trade up into projected ascending trend line resistance and that comes in at 2567 equally if we get a close below this support area 2086 first pull back to retest this trend line from below will be an excellent opportunity to get in on the short side and and trade down into monthly range support 1968 so there's you can see what I'm trying to explain I guess what I'm trying to get across here is that there are multiple opportunities developing now in these equity indexes and it's just about paying attention to these key areas and watching for the price response to get in on what I think are going to be some excellent trading opportunities the DAX in Germany so has tested some pivotal support here I'm looking for a three wave correction and again a similar setup to these other equity indexes let me just draw in the next key area so we will be paying close attention to how price responds on any retest of this where are we 15948 up to 15998 because if we fail there then in all likelihood we're going to move down to test the ascending trend line support and the monthly range support back down at 1414157 it's going to be the key area to to pay attention to but equally if we can get through here on a closing basis then we know again that in all likelihood this correction is complete we take out the price and we can think about and move up into ascending trend line resistance towards 17000 an instrument that not many people pay attention to but certainly we want to be cognizant of here is the VIX index and this is a volatility index and obviously as we've seen a pullback in the equities we've seen a spike in the VIX we're now trading into this trend channel resistance so we're going to get some equally useful information here from the VIX because if the VIX rolls over from this from current levels and starts to track lower again then that's going to give us tradable information with respect to these equity indexes that in all likelihood the current correction is complete but if we take out this resistance area coming in around the 33 level then we could be in for a more protracted correction in the equity indexes so it's always useful to keep an eye on the VIX because if we see a change in the trend here to the upside then that gives us immediate information with respect to the equity indexes and where we're likely heading. 10 year notes so the 10 year notes in the US move inversely to bond yields so as the 10 year is going up in price bond yields are coming down and so what we are tracking here is if we go to the 10 year yield so what I'm anticipating for the yields now is that we're in this potential ascending triangle pattern and so I'm anticipating for us to continue rotating within this range of 1.68 percent down to a low of probably 1.4 into the back end of this year and then what I'm ultimately looking for at some point is that we see an explosive move to the upside and we head above that 2 percent yield level and that's so that's this is going to be a key pattern to keep an eye on this this descending triangle because when we see that disruption in terms of yields in the US rising that's going to have a significant impact on equity markets as well. Dollar index we are trading still pretty nicely within this pitchfork and so I'm looking for any weakness in the dollar index now to find support at the prior highs at the 94.50 area to set up the next leg to the upside looking at thinking about a test up towards the 98 level 61.8 percent retracement of this prior decline at this stage I would only get bearish on the dollar if we take out this trading channel support and that's back towards the 93.50 area at this stage. Gold has made a test here of this trend line I posted this gold chart on an intraday basis for our time frame yesterday through the trading view account so I'm looking for bullish reversal patterns here in gold and if we can get a bullish reversal potentially putting in a pin bar here today so if we can get a bullish reversal here in gold then I'm looking for an extension up through the prior highs at the 1882 on route to an ideal 1923 in gold gold also has seasonal support at the moment November December and January tend to be very good months for gold so we'll see how that sets up but certainly this is looking interesting now if we can hold this trend line get this bullish reversal in then we're going to be looking for long positions and we've got some nice upside targets to play for crude oil also posted this one today I think we are in the first leg here of a five wave sequence in terms of crude so I'm looking to fade any rallies above the 71 level I'm looking for a five equals one objective down to 63 and then we've got structural support back towards 62 from there I'd anticipate a relief rally three wave move and similar to these equity indexes to a certain degree we're going to retest of this trend line from beneath bearish reversal patterns here will set up an equality objective in crude back down towards $50 a barrel but equally if we can get back through $77 then it could suggest that we're about to start the next leg to the upside that to my mind at this stage is the less probable scenario at this point what I'm thinking is because of the impulsive nature of this decline so far that the next three wave correction has certainly back into this trend line from beneath will be an opportunity to look for bearish reversal patterns and get in on the short side in terms of crude oil so that's a scenario I'm tracking there bitcoin this one's interesting as well for a for a seasonal play December has tend to be a pretty good month the prior trades I've been looking at bitcoin with these trend line breaks that after the correction and we've got a similar situation setting up here so any move in bitcoin for me back through the 60,220 area is going to be an opportunity on the long side first target on the upside is 75,000 and then we look for a test of the major ascending trend channel resistance coming at 83,700 at this point so watch for that close through the trend line and then you've got a decent long shot there ether we have taken out while I'm looking for another close through this trend line to confirm a bullish breakout here I want to see the psych indicator kick up into the the green zone suggesting further momentum strength and then what I'm looking for then will be a test of the 5,050 and then as this area acts as support we then look for a move up into 5,775 in terms of ether so this one seems to be leading the pack at the moment so we'll see if we can get this next breach through these ties and then again just playing momentum you want to what I want to see is this psych indicator flip green and then that sets up this next leg to the upside in terms of in terms of ether dollar yen obviously seeing a bit of weakness now with the risk sentiment on the wane here so what I'm looking for with this dollar yen is any pullbacks now into 14,1338,1450 bearish traversal patterns and I'm looking for a test then of the trend channel support coming in into these prior highs here this setup plays out so 111,30s again bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and then I'm looking for a move up to this 115,80 as the next upside objective in terms of dollar yen. Looney this one's got an interesting development here we are looking for the Looney to take out this trend line resistance on a closing basis and then I think there's a momentum setup developing to take us up into the equality objective so I'm talking about the equality objective so we are looking for equal legs versus this swing structure here and the target then for the Looney is 132,20s and that will basically be correcting this entire decline that we saw last year so if we can get this through on a closing basis then you want to be looking for intraday pullbacks to develop long positions looking for that 132 euro obviously the inverse to the dollar index. What I'm anticipating here is that we can see a correction develop ideally what we get is a scenario like this that takes us back into these prior lows at just above 115 and then from there I think we get the next leg to the downside in terms of the euro to complete a much bigger cycle we've got a weekly trend line coming in just above 110 and then once we get there I think we can see a more sustained corrective move in terms of the euro. Euro yen this is what I'm watching today I'm looking for a bullish reversal pattern here in the euro yen so looking for a green candle to to form here in with the trend candles and then I think we can get a retest of the trend line from below so this will put us back up into the 130 area and then maybe we roll over again but this would be a key test here in terms of the euro yen so just watching this area now looking for that green candle closed through the descending trend line resistance and then I'm going to be on playing that from the long side. Euro Aussie a couple of ideas here with the euro Aussie I'm looking for a test of this broken trend line support as resistance bearish reversal patterns on the short side then look to play the break with the break point from where we took out this triangle to the upside so move back into 150, 730s watch for bullish reversal patterns then to get in on the long side tackling the high volume nodes and the descending trend line resistance coming in at 162.70s in terms of the euro Aussie. Sterling trying to trying to recover here but it's the bounce so far is looking weak so the sterling view is going to probably have to be amended here to look now for price to test so we have an equality objective versus this and let me draw the swing structure then looking at so we have our essentially a b and a c target now down at 130 so what we're looking for here are basically rallies in sterling to to ultimately fail now certainly back into that 134 handle just below and then that sets up I think the washout moved down to the 130 and there may be a more sustained correction from developed from there hasn't been able to take out the trend line resistance and so it's looking a little little shaky here for sterling I really can't get bullish on it now until we get back through this pivot zone 134 so looking at another leg to the downside potentially here for sterling let's quickly look at these are the majors the Aussie yeah I mean the Aussie also looking looking weak here so whilst we whilst we hold the pivot here I would be looking for a test of the 70 handle maybe we get a reasonable bounce attempt from there but ultimately now whilst we are trading below this pivot here at the 7550 there is actually now an equality objective all the way down at 66 for the Aussie so this juncture whilst we trade below this broken trend line support this flag pattern then any any rallies are going to be an opportunity to to get in on the short side and look for a test through the 70 we're likely bounced from the the pivot there might might get as high as back into that trend line from that point but for me from that point it that that just sets up an opportunity to to short the Aussie and trade for the equality objective now down to the 6660s key we obviously also pretty weak it now whilst we trade below its broken trend line it has an equality objective down to the 65 level so first stop will be the descending trend line support we likely see a bounce from there but ultimately now I look for a test of the yearly pivot 6630s and then that's 6570 to complete the major corrective objective and that when I'm talking about that is this swing structure here equal legs and then from there we might see some some significant bounce or even the start of a new uptrend in terms of the key week so you can see how that this is feeding into the all all the majors essentially at the moment are in these are looking for these equal leg objectives to the downside equity indexes are really going to be driving action now so paying close attention to all these equity indexes and the levels that I've highlighted for you here today is going to be critical to giving really decent trading information and that's going to feed into other risk assets in terms of the dollar and then those FX managers are going to be key so that's those are the charts I'm looking at and what I'm focused on over the coming sessions if anyone has any questions or a chart they'd like me to take a look at I haven't covered now is an opportunity to either post it into the the chat or type it into the Q&A equally if you don't have a question you can type an N in the chat box that's just as useful as it lets me know I've done the reasonably good job of explaining things here and we can we can wrap today's session up okay I shall take the silence as suggesting that there aren't any questions at this point and and we're all on the same page so I'm going to wrap the session up here I strongly suggest you take advantage of the Futures Facebook group and for those who are interested in taking it to the next level you can hit me up on LinkedIn and I can give you more information about the Telegram group essentially the only thing you have to do for the Telegram group is open the futures account with Tickmail and that gives you access to to those daily live streams of me trading live during the opening hour of the cash session and and again trading view that my trade ideas I update them daily three to five markets per day that I'm actively tracking okay thanks very much for your time everyone and I hope you have found this useful all the best and we'll reconvene sometime next week