investors. The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour. With your host, Basil Chapman, call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone, Basil Chapman here on this very last day of March, March the 31st. We're going to be looking at those candles tomorrow to see where they close at four o'clock. Let me get that off there. And don't forget we start off here at TFNN. We start off at Tommy O'Brien, kicks us off right there at 9 o'clock and we're programming all the way through to 4 o'clock where Tom Sr. closes the show. And don't forget that Den is just an incredible medium just this morning alone. There were so many good questions and statements and picks and just it's fabulous. We're looking at the Dow down 183 at 35043. Let me just show you this because it's kind of important for those of you who might be new. Looking at my work, what I tend to do, where did that go? Did I lose that? No way. Oh no. Gone. Oh, I have to find it again.  All right. Well, in the Chapman methodology, what we try to do is identify the lowest low bar and count each successively higher peak. We alphabetize them sequentially A through G. But at that fourth highest peak D, other things can happen. And we want to always see a buy signal upgrading to a buy mode because the implication is that there should be at least four higher peaks.  And what we're looking at is when we went to a buy signal and we actually went along on about the 15th, just under 33,000 in the diamonds. What we were looking for was how would it approach this orange 200 period exponential moving average? And if it did that, would the Magdi give a nice wide ninth period differential green line way above the slow 26 period exponential moving average with the histogram, the little vertical bars, which essentially diagram the distance stream, the green and the red lines are going positive called the 0% line. That's the Magdi. We get the stochastic over 80%, especially over 90% and flattening out. Flattening out is imperative to watch. Look here what happened when it went just barely above 80% back in the middle of about the eighth or ninth of February, we went to that peak C and then it failed and made an H pattern, the dreaded H pattern. So this is going to be really important. The other thing we're looking at here is the on balance volume said we're tad overboard. We should be pulling back. That's why you've got to pull back in the price right now. The blue line, this grayish blue line right here is a red to a strength index. It's good. It's not great. It's not bad. It's kind of in the middle. It's good at about 50, 58%. Now what's really important is that the nine period moving average above the black 14 period moving average is still very strong and both of them are way above the 200 period moving average and that just says you've got tremendous support if there is going to be a market sell-off from here and that's why at peak D we always, that's our objective. I had the DOG there as a potential. That's the DOG one-to-one short to down. I didn't want to do anything right now because the technicals are still very, very strong and we do have a target with the Chapmeet inside track repellent resistance line right there moving towards some kind of a high over the next couple of days trying to get to the 35,000, maybe even 35,500. Maybe that's a stretch. That's what we're looking at now. One of the things we're looking at in the weekly chart, 36,900. January the 5th makes a peak D top in the daily chart right there. You can see it and then it comes tumbling down to 32,272 and then it runnies back and it runnies back more than 50%. In fact, the 50% number, if I can remember correctly, I like to always look at that, is when did I write it? 34,612. We had 35,000. We have 400 points above that. The day is young, the week is young, but so far that's what we're looking at. Now what's really important about this is that the monthly chart is nicely above the nine period exponential moving average which is at this particular point, and if I can just hit that, click it, there it is, 35,530s. 35,000, 34,530s and we'll just watch it and see what happens tomorrow. We'll talk about it in my Friday's technical Friday where we do more Chapman Way methodology discussions. Now talking about Chapman Way methodology, I'm going to be doing a webinar. This is going to be, let's see, it's going to be, I believe, a Wednesday a week. That'll be the 13th of April for subscribers. You can become a subscriber. It's a money back guarantee, so not only that, you get my webinar, you get my newsletter. We've had some real nice picks and also you got my 9, 10, 11 webinars that I did and some of them are really intense. They're all discussing the Chapman Way methodology. So let's just go straight on. We're going to look at the S&P right now because this is the one that I'm really keying on. I want to see where we close in the monthly chart because this is a fantastic rally. When you think of all the bad news with interest rates skyrocketing with the agricultural sector skyrocketing, Crudall skyrocketing, you've got the Fed out there. I think I'm going to raise rates. You've got the rates skyrocketing. You've got the Russian-Ukrainian situation. It's an invasion because can anybody tell me has Ukraine sent even one missile over to Russia? I mean, why is Moscow not being bombarded? This is an invasion and we're going to have to treat it as an invasion. The other thing I'm looking at here is with all these things, the S&P goes from 48.18 down to 41.14. It has run it back almost 60%. This is the monthly chart. You would never believe if I said to you as we're going into January that in February and March, we're going to have potential World War III, we're going to have interest rates skyrocketing, Crudall up in the sky. This whole Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe and many countries around the world under siege and you get a pullback of what is at this point, it's 45%. You wouldn't believe it. Well, the month is young even though we've only got another couple of hours to go to the end of the day, end of the month. But the other thing is this, what we do have is the month of April which often is very choppy. Coming up, how do we handle that? Now I would just say that in the S&P 44, 40s is key support in the shorter term, but closing any week under 43.09 says, oh, the Chapman wave, Roman candles, I'm going to be talking about these in my webinar coming up, all these different techniques. I'm going to show you how you can stay in a position much longer than you thought based on certain moving averages, etc. All I'm saying right now is thus far at 10, 14am Eastern time on the 31st of March, we're looking at a market that's actually done really well under these circumstances. What more could you say? All right, let's go on, we're going to be looking at the QQQ, 123, here we go. I come back off it's low, it was 364.48, trading 365, 85 down a dollar and a quarter. So far the MACD is stochastic, everything is looking really strong. I think there's still a lot of buying to come. How much higher you go is the question, but support is there. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? 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That's just suggesting that finally, the TNX.X, which is the 10-year, 10-year, which is the 10-year, anybody hear me? There it is. We're looking at a peak E in the Chapmove methodology pulling back. I drew the rectangle in the other day. Still, the technicals are very good, but it is pulling back. That just says the 10-year yield at 2.331 is way off the high that was at 25.03. That's 2.503. That is a big deal right now because it means that, at least in the very short term, there could be a little mini trend change. That's important. A couple of things we're also looking at here is gold. Gold is in this trading bank. I've got this whatever happened to my other. Oh, there it is. Okay. I thought it was there. This is the chart that I was going to show you. Let me just move it over right here. This is the chart that I was going to show you. Chapmove methodology, we try to identify the lowest low, count each successively, higher peak at peak D, the fourth highest peak. Other things can happen. You can get your sharpest decline. Remember the down made in the fifth of January, made its peak D and what it turned down and had. But it could also recycle to an E, F and G. It could have Chapmove instant restart. And what's really important about this is that there's another pattern I look at, because I'm always looking at only three major chart formations. One is where there's a straight line move to the upside, up or down. The other is a cup formation. The other is an arch formation. You can mix up one and two or one and three. This is one and three. I call it the dreaded H, because it's the lowercase H, that if it decisively takes out that F side low, it could do a one and one from the arch high to the base to the downside. If it's on the upside, you can get a break to the upside that says, break that left side high, you can continue. That's why it's green. And now what do we have? This particular pattern can turn into a second H pattern, which means you've gone from the lowercase H, held the left side low, and now you're making it a second arch formation that looks like an M. Well, low and behold, that's exactly what we've got here in the pattern that we were looking for in gold. So gold is held. It did break underneath the left side low, but ran back up again immediately that day. So this is a good arch formation. Now it's in the rectangle. I drew this rectangle before. I'm just going to extend it out, because sometimes the chart itself tells you exactly what it looked for. It says, hey, hey, hey, look, this is what I've got. Don't you have to fight anything? Here's my rectangle. And you just stuck between about 1900 and maybe 1962 for the moment. If it breaks decisively into the 1978-1982 area, that is a really significant breakout, because then all of a sudden the pattern changes. And now you're going to be looking at the, I'm doing this in only as a potential, a potential cup formation, which says, aha, now you can start looking at the upside. So you've got always have two fighting patterns. One is negative, one is positive. This one just says, you know what, I'm not negative, I'm not positive. I'm sideways. That's what we're looking at. Silver is not quite the same pattern. Silver broke decisively below, went to the 200-period moving average, and now it's striking a little bit more because it's making lower lows and lower highs. And that's a B-minus right there in the Chapman wave arch formation for the dreaded H. The failure is usually at a peak A or B. And then it comes back down. It becomes a B-minus, because it completely failed. So this says 26-16 right now, 0.04. There's a chance you can get to the 20. If it breaks above 0.2692 in the next week, that's going to be good. If it breaks into the 26-30s, that's really good for Silver. Meantime, 24-20 is key support that it needs to hold. Let me do high-grade copper, high-grade copper is holding time quite nicely. It's already made a peak C, a leg C. This could be a peak C within the big rectangle formation. And within that context, what we are looking at is that, let me just show you this, it's really important. I'm just taking a little time, even though I've got a ton of questions coming, just to show you some of the techniques because they repeat. Remember, the price point we're looking at is a price point of human emotion. And human emotion means that you've got fractals of emotion that get repeated in chart patterns, whether it's a one-minute chart, a yearly chart, or a decade chart, it's the same emotion, just on a bigger or smaller time frame. So you've got your rectangle formation here in high-grade copper from 4.89 back in April, and maybe, and then it pulls back sharply to the 4.20. It actually goes to the 4.0, let's call it the $4 level. And then it kind of stays in the rectangle formation. Over and over again, it tries to break out and then it does go to a peak D. Let me show you patterns repeat, IWM. Remember, it stayed in this rectangle formation for months, $2.34 to $2.07. Trading, trading, trading, trading. Look, fantastic short-term on a weekly basis. It was just a long sideways rectangle. Now you've got in New York, you've got these skinny skyscrapers. Do you want to call them tall? Whatever it is. These very tall, skinny little skyscrapers. And this is on the side, it's the same thing, but on the side. And now you've got the skinny move to the side, and then it goes to a peak D, Chapman Way 4th, 4th peak higher, at $2.44, $4.46. And then it pulls back. And what does it do? It creates a propeller shaft with this midpoint of the rectangle tango goes above and then below and goes all the way down to 1.89, 87.92, the week of February the 25th. Now it's trying to get back to say hello to the rectangle, and that's the way we look at it. Dear, I'm just showing you patterns, that's what we about here. Dear, which we are long still, has this long sideways pattern between 400 and 321, all the way back to May the 14th, the week of May the 14th, continued for months. And then all of a sudden, bam, we went long about three weeks ago, and then boom, it goes to 414, and then 437.98, and it's had a big pullback the other day. It's still holding very well. We were very fortunate, but this is the rectangle formation.  Or will this be one of those times we went to a D or an E and didn't pull back? The fact that it didn't do it at, oh, this is an F. It went to a peak F. The fact that it's holding still well, pretty well, in the whole agriculture area, which is really doing so well, we added in the commodity area. We added another one today. We've got a lot of positions in different commodity areas. And look at this, it's holding well. And it's only a leg C in the weekly chart. Now, let's go back to what we were looking at. I was looking at, you remember, that was high grade copper, high grade copper sideways action, suddenly pops to the upside. And in the, in the, in the weekly chart, went to peak, he went back into this. So I suspect that high grade copper, which is a good sign for the economy, world economies is actually holding very well, but within a containment area. That's what I wanted to say. I think we've done a whole bunch of things and asking for all the questions, a lot of questions showing up. Wow. Some people now in the den, I'll be back. Are you having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at TFNN.com. 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Let me just see if I can go back there. Okay, so this is what I wanted to do. I wanted to, I had a question about Tesla. Tesla, I said was holding very well. It made it, I'm not sure. I think that's a peak. See, yes, there was a slightly higher high yesterday. The fantastic move up. The magnet is really strong. Stochastic is flat, you remember at 95%. There's nothing better in the world than a flat stochastic in the 95% area. As soon as it turns down, under 80%, you have a little problem. On balance volume, there's a tad overboard nine way above the 14-period moving average, both of them all way above the 872 level of the 200-period moving average. We're at 195 up $2. So the high that was made at, on the 29th at 1114.77, 1113.95 was the high on Wednesday. So this becomes a peak. See, but look at this tiny little candle. I like this very much and I believe it should go to a leg D. Now, what I do is a chapter of me falling exformation. Another one of those things I'll be discussing in great detail when I do my webinar over just under two weeks. See, the price rises and suddenly starts to fall, makes a lower highs and much lower lows. Then all of a sudden it finds some support. If it can break that higher downtrend line, it could do a one-to-one to the upside. Well, lo and behold, what we've got here is this has gapped up on a weekly basis. That's unusual. Now, what I do is I tend to just make it as simple as possible. I like to look at what is resistance and this says to me perfect resistance right there. And what I'll do is I'll draw that make that green and I will just add a new parallel. Every software has straight lines. So the issue now is sometimes they don't have cup formations. That's a shame because the cup formation is so, for me, so imperative in what I do, but you don't have to have it. You can make it like into a V-shaped pattern and imitate a cup. But look at this. If Tesla is able to break into the 1132 area or higher next week, then what we're looking at is that whole area going into, I'll give you the numbers right now, 1147 to 1167 is going to be tremendous resistance. And these double tops, even if they're sloping a little bit, can become quite heavy in terms of resistance. If you look at, I wanted to show you something here, BLDR is something I've been looking at for a long time. Look at this double top. I've been talking about this for over a year and a half. These double tops are incredible. What happens? 78.49 on the 3rd of March in BLDR, which is Bull's first source ink housing, and then it pulls back sharp into the 67, 11 points, and then runs up where? To 78.60 and gives you a two bar reversal, which I haven't made two bar reversal from the 21st to the 22nd. And now it's trading at 66. They are potent, these double tops. This is the dreaded H pattern, but upside down, and it failed. So I'm looking at, look at this. He has your rectangle. I can now make the rectangle even lower. There was a question about BLDR, and I just said, I can't even remember now if it was to short or to stay long. I've been looking at the downside. Whether this is the position to short right now at 66, where there should be some support. Target is 63 for three points. I'm not sure. But I think the pattern here is saying that this could be in a downtrend for quite a while. So I'm just going to answer it to say it's now gone from a buy signal to a buy mode, and just switched over from a sell signal, today's action puts it into sell mode in the day. The weekly chart is in a sell signal. All right, that's BLDR. Let's go back here. Did I get those? Oh, I keep losing it. Okay, so it was Tesla. To really see Tesla decline sharply, that is to go from in a 120 minute chart, it's not even to go to a sell signal, even the 120 minute chart. I would have to see the gap. And the gap should be filled at some point. You might have to make a D and then it's ready for a pullback. But the low of 1053.60 on the 28th, a close below 1048 suggests that the 9B moving average of 1034 and then the 40B moving average of 996 is in play. But if there's a break to the upside in an 18D and a stall remains positive, I'd be careful. All right, next question was, oh, that does move pretty okay. I just saw CLVS. It's funny that CLVS showed up because I've had this on my kind of watch list for a long time. It always trades around about below $2 between two and one and a quarter. And all of a sudden it popped up. But that wasn't the issue. In my chart with the black background here, I use the sister show using the black background. Is there an issue? Yep, there it is. I like to show this chart. This is why I show subscribers every day. This is the chapter 1 methodology I explained every single day. What we're looking at is the Dow daily with just the 9, the 14 and the 20 period exponential moving averages plus my notations. This one has the MACD and stochastic and the on balance volume included. And this is the 120 minute chart made at PVTS. You just be careful at a PVT, you can't get some kind of a pullback. But it's the close today. If we can't start coming back later this afternoon, and there's just a narrow close, that'll be very, very important. But I was looking and then I look at CLVS in the corner and it hadn't opened yet. And I thought, oh, that's interesting. So what a coincidence that someone in the den mentioned CLVS, which is Clovis. Is it Clovis technology? Clovis Clovis, what? Roman and the Clovis. Clovis oncology, that I've added on my list, a number of these biotech stocks in different areas I've had. And this is a big move. So obviously some news, really positive news, it's up 55%, 258. It's up 93 cents. And that's over 50%. So yep, this is starting to work very nicely for those people that had long-term buying holes. I just don't know. I just saw the name. In the Tiger YouTube, CLVS up 51%. What a coincidence because in the den, there was also someone who mentioned it. Okay, next question was CCJ. I don't know if it's a question or a statement. CCJ is chemical called uranium energy. Now this is really important for a number of reasons. There's a pattern that I call the cup and ladle, the Chapman wave cup and ladle formation. What happens is there's a price that goes to very often it's like a D or an E and then it pulls back. It doesn't take out the starting point, which is the left side low in this case in the weekly chart of CCJ, which is at on the 20th of August at 15.34. But it holds very nicely at 18, 18.03. And then it rallies. So in the Chapman wave, this is called the cup and ladle formation. It means if there's a break above the left side high, there could be a really quick break to a leg D, then a pullback to the left side, previous high, which was 28.49. And if the technicals are still strong, it could continue higher. And that's the, this is the cup and ladle. Why do I call it the cup and ladle? Because many of you know about the cup and handle. That's just, it stops at the left side. It makes a little handle. I can't stand that pattern unless you use it in a particular way. I'll be back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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Hi folks, I had one of my screamers that I had KOS, which is, some time ago it was just moving up, up, up, up and I thought, oh, okay, well, what do I do now? This is it down in the $4.55 area and didn't do anything. And now here it is at $7.39. In legs C is the Chamberlain's instant restart over there within two bars. It makes a new high after a peak D. And there are so many of the Cosmos energy. I mean, this started showing up in the ones and we've got, is this what energy is going to be? The question came in the den about XLE. So this symbol has KOS Cosmos energy, XLE. Remember rectangle formations, if they wide rectangle formations and it starts to, it holds the left side low. This one didn't. It made the dreaded H first and then it came down, made a one to one to the downside. XLE hit about 80 back in about the 7th of March, plummets down to the, on the 14th it goes down to 17th. It's a big move down. Now it's gone peak A, peak B, great peak A, great peak B because the stochastic is, well, the MACD is flat. Stochastic actually is just about at 80% to 79. So this is just suggesting that it is still in play and it made a peak G. That means any new high, you're in a buy mode, any new high above, there's an XLE spider, SBE spider, above 80.22. Doesn't have to close. It just says to make a new high within this new context of the rectangle formation. And remember the rectangle formation says, if after the flag formation, there's a low and it starts to make higher lows and higher highs in a stair step manner, which this is doing, there's a chance that it could go just under, right on, or just above the previous high, that's the flagpole high, that's the high of right there of March the 8th at 80.22. And then if it starts to pull back after that, it goes back into the range of the rectangle. But if it makes two out of three bars sharply above the left side high, that's a breakout. Well, look at this, the XLE in this huge, look, there's a rectangle formation. Now what I've done for some time now is I've kept when I use Fibonacci numbers, I try not to do it too often because it starts to make the chart look a little messy. But everyone wants to know, I just say, you know what, I need to keep it there. Look how beautifully it's handled these Fibonacci numbers. And as it's extended from the low that was made back in March, I think it was the 20th, yeah, March the 20th of 2020 in the weekly chart, once it went to that high, what was the low? I said the low was 2288. The high was on the week of June the 12th, the high was 46.88. And then it pulled back right to there, which was 26.98 in October of 2020. So I just did a Fibonacci expansion and it's gone to all these different levels. And what's really important is that 82.80, I guess you're 238.2 area percent area. What we're looking at is it's walking the ninth period and the 14th, but especially the ninth period moving average in the weekly. And remember the MACD, basically just look at the chart of the price. Now look at the chart of the MACD and you can see there's a big match.  But if you got it right, look, it's working its way up following the pattern. I could overlay that and the MACD looks like the price. Stochastic is at 87 percent, starting to pull back, still good. Unbalanced volumes are turned overboard. So the XLE says this is in play, it continues to be in play, even though it's at a peak D in the chart, maybe that's become a little bit cautious. And a leg E in the monthly chart, this is where normally you say, oh, what are we thinking? You don't want to be long. You want to be lightening up. But in fact, energy is in play. There's just no question about it. Energy is in play. All right. So XLE has key support at 74. And if it breaks out one penny above the high that was made on March the 25th of 78.85, that's also leg C. And I'm still, this is called the gray B because I should make it a gray because I haven't really got confirmation yet of the, of a buy mode, but it's acting really well. All the things are in place. The nine's way above the 14. I should put an up arrow, but I'm going to hold that off.  And now what have we got? We have a little plus sign meaning there's a chance that it can move up nicely, which is done. If the MACD goes above, it crosses nicely. A flat MACD means you've got the directional move of the last indicator. And in this case, it is still from that top at PG. And it says until it crosses positive, you've got to be a little bit careful. But price is really the arbiter of the trend. The price is holding very well. Energy is holding very well. Let's go to crude oil and see what crude oil is doing. Let's go to crude oil, type it in right here, the little rectangle. There we go. GC, there we go. Crude oil, no, into gold. I mean to go to crude oil CL. And that is down sharply, down five at 102.83. And this is just saying to me that the oil sector, which has the multinational oils it has, a lot of things going on there, is acting a little bit better because, hey, if crude oil is up above 90 at 102, I mean, that is an extremely high price. I'm suspecting that crude oil is going to be under pressure, but the demand is still there. And we will see it in a rectangle trading range for a little while until when it breaks out or breaks down, it's going to be a big move because of a number of factors. Maybe tomorrow I'll get into it. But if there is a close above 117 at any point in the next two weeks, that is a breakout of great significance because it says you have raised the base price of crude oil and you've now got a huge cushion between 103 and 98. All right. So I did that question, question, question. I did that. Okay. Within the DEN context, let me move this aside here. This is quite exciting. A lot of questions. Lenard and Tol, I'm not going to take too much time. They're under pressure. I would not be along any of these stocks in the homeboulders, not at this moment. If you are long, you've been long, you've had really good gains.  Give yourself a good cushion. Use those profits to say, you know what, I'm going to keep a little bit, but I would have a stop on a Lenard trading at 82.39. It hasn't broken down, but it is in a sell mode in the day. It's sell mode in the weekly. And by the end of the day, this monthly chart is going to give me a sell signal. So I wouldn't be messing around the long side. Look, they've had a fantastic move. They deserve some kind of a break to the, to, you know, just a consolidation. So I would be very careful because if it closes under 78, there's a chance that there's open territory for weakness. And I just be real careful. Next question I had was VLO, yeah, VLO Valera, what a move Valera, even today, it's up 2%. It's up $2.19 at $1,269. Look at this V-shaped pattern here. This is like the cup formation. This is what I usually join. I thought I had drawn this in for, maybe not. And now we're going to go to the right side. And look at this. This is the cup, a beautiful cup formation. Remember, this is the reverse Y that we were looking at. So here's the Chapman wave. This is called left side, right side, price time match. I'll be showing you some of these things when I do my webinar on the 16th. How do you draw these things? I mean, what are you looking for? Why do you even get it for it in the first place? And look at this. It broke, it broke out. If you test it, it broke out to the right side. That's very good action. And that's a leg in, leg in, leg deep, break out in the monthly. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. 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So a couple of questions that came in, but at the same time, I just found Larry's not around and I made a quick change and I'm going to be able to do the next hour because I think a number of people had asked me about commodities. I haven't really had a chance to do anything with it. I'll do another hour. This is not trade what you see. I'll use the hour of Larry to do some work using my techniques. So I'm not substituting for Larry. I'm just filling in for that hour. Let's make it clear because Larry is one person that the techniques that he's developed over his decades and decades is just something really special. So that's all I can say. So I'll be looking at the different currencies. I'll be looking at meat. I'll be looking at the dollar. I'll be looking at coffee was mentioned earlier on. So when I get back for, I'll be doing the hour, 11 o'clock to 12. So and a couple of things going on right now. It's really important, INDU. This is the Dow is trading down 131. I would have preferred to see about 130 down OK. But right now at 11 o'clock Eastern time between 11 and 1230, I would want to see some kind of amelioration of the downside selling and see of like a minus 65. And then as we go into the afternoon, maybe close down about 40 points and the S&P instead of being down right now. It's actually a little bit better than in the Dow. But the S&P as be excellent. Excellent. There we go. It's down. Oh, it's not bad. It's down four. I would like to see it actually if the S&P could close positive with that monthly chart. I want to talk about that when I come back for for the hour that is usually Larry shows. I will be back for another hour. And also I'm going to just mention again on the Wednesday the 13th of April. I'm doing a webinar for subscribers. And it's going to be really important. And the question is, can we see higher highs in the indexes in 2022 when a lot of people are saying no way we're in for this biggest recession, etc, etc. I think there's a lot to discuss. And we might even find this kind of thing that one or two of the indexes goes higher and wanted to store bills. I'll be back


Throughout this section to the course, we've been talking about cooperation and different aspects to the social dilemma. In this video, we'll look at various approaches that have been identified for fostering the cooperation required to overcome this core constraint. Our capacity to solve the social dilemma in various different ways is a defining factor in the strength of individual relationships, social organizations, economies, and society at large, and it is thus a topic that is of great interest to many. Depletion of natural resources, pollutants, and intercultural conflict can be characterized as examples of social dilemmas. Social dilemmas are challenging because acting in one's immediate self-interest is tempting to everyone involved, even though everyone benefits from acting in the long-term collective interest. Thus some form of cooperative institutional infrastructure is required to enable the cooperation inherent in achieving sustainable outcomes. The empirical fact that subjects in most societies contribute anything in the public goods game that we looked at previously is a challenge for classical game theory to explain via motives of total self-interest. But as we have noted, one of the defining features to human beings is their capacity for high levels of cooperative behavior. Cooperation is a massive resource for advancing individual and group capabilities, and over the course of thousands of years we have evolved complex networks for collaboration and cooperation, which we call institutions of various kind. These institutional structures help us to solve the many different forms of the tragedy of the commons that we encounter within large societies. As we've touched upon previously, the central issue of the tragedy of the commons is externalities. That is to say that the actions that the individual takes have costs that the person does not fully bear themselves, as they are externalized to the overall organization. If there are then too many negative externalities and not enough positive externalities, the organization will degrade over time. The central issue in solving the tragedy of the commons is then in reconnecting the costs of the individual's actions on the whole with the costs that they pay individually. When the individual always pays the full cost for their actions, then there is no social dilemma, and we should have a self-sustaining organization. This may sound simple in the abstract, but in practice it is not simple at all, and this is one reason why we have such a complex array of economic and social institutions. How we approach doing this, though, depends on the degree of interconnectivity and interdependence between the players in the game. When there is low interconnectivity, then there will likely be low interdependence, which means a high probability that negative correlations between actors. When actors are independent, then they can do things that affect others without that effect returning to themselves. For example, if I live in Germany and pollute the atmosphere so that there is acid rain in Sweden, as long as I never go to Sweden, then what happens there does not affect me too much and this negative correlation can go on existing. Now if we turn up the interconnectivity and interdependence, this will change the dynamic. Say I have business partners in Sweden and happen to take my family on holiday there also. Due to this interconnectivity and interdependence, there is a much greater possibility for a positive correlation between my experience and what happens in Sweden. This interconnectivity and interdependence means that I increasingly have to factor my negative externalities into my cost-benefit equation. The central importance of interdependence as a parameter in cooperation can be simply seen in the way that people cooperate more with those that they are closely connected to, more than with those that are of a different group, cultural society, and with whom they do not perceive a connection. Thus, how we go about solving the social dilemma depends on the degree of interconnectivity and interdependence within the system. At a low level, cooperative structures have to be imposed through regulation. While at a high level, this is no longer necessary as the interconnectivity and interdependence can be used to create self-sustaining, cooperative organizations. This is illustrated by how different cooperative structures have evolved within society, those within small, closely interdependent groups like the family, and those that have formed for larger society that is composed of many groups that see themselves as independent from each other. This is, to a large extent, part of what has happened as we've gone from small pre-modern societies to large modern societies. As the scale of the social systems that we're engaged in has increased, the interdependence between any two random members has correspondingly decreased because they are now part of a larger network and more likely to be further away from each other. This has worked to disintegrate additional cooperative institutions that are based on local interactions and interdependencies. In the absence of tools for interconnecting everyone within a large national society, we've had to create the formal, centralized regulatory institutions of the nation-state. And of course, with the rise of information technology and globalization, this is once again changing as we increasingly create social interdependencies that span the entire planet. The most manifest and obvious form for enabling cooperation is regulation and rules that are imposed on the social system by a third party to ensure behavior that is of benefit to the group as a whole. The aspect of cooperation examined in many experimental games is cooperation that occurs when people follow rules limiting the exercise of their self-interested motives. People might want to take from a shop without paying but are required to abide by the law. They may want to fish in a lake but limit what they catch to the quantity specified in the permit. They buy a fuel-efficient car because of regulation taxing the sale of inefficient cars. In all of these situations, people are refraining from engaging in behavior that would give them immediate benefit but is against the welfare of the group. Regulation involves limiting undesirable behavior. This method for enabling cooperation through regulation and rule adherence is deeply intuitive to us and often the default assumption as to how we might achieve cooperation. The central aim of regulation is to connect the individual's externalities with the costs and benefits they pay by imposing extra costs on them for certain negative externalities while providing them with subsidies and payments for certain activity that generates positive externalities. This form of solution to enduring cooperation through an external third party that imposes sanctions or awards can be very effective in situations of independence between members. It would be a good solution to the prisoner's dilemma where the members cannot communicate with each other and are likewise independent by forming a third party that could impose sanctions on them we could change the payoffs in the game to enable cooperative outcomes and the best solution for all. Although this regulatory approach is simple and straightforward, the development and maintenance of this external organization has overhead costs. It is also prone to corruption and has other limitations to it also. Studies have been conducted into the success of the establishment of a leader or authority to manage social dilemmas. Experimental studies on commons dilemmas show that overharvesting groups are more willing to appoint a leader to look after the common resources. There is a preference for a democratically elected prototypical leader with limited power especially when people's group ties are strong. When ties are weak, meaning greater independence, groups prefer a stronger leader with a coercive power base. The question remains though whether authorities can be trusted in governing social dilemmas and field research shows that legitimacy and fair procedures are extremely important in citizens' willingness to accept the authority. Furthermore, the formal governance structures of a police force, army and judiciary system will fail to operate unless people are willing to pay taxes to support them. This raises the question whether many people will want to contribute to those institutions. Experimental research suggests that particularly low trust individuals are willing to invest money in punishment systems. The political economist Elna Ostrom won a Nobel laureate for her studies of various communities around the world. Now they managed to develop diverse institutional arrangements for managing natural resources and thus avoid the collapse of their supporting ecosystems. She illustrated how communities can be managed successfully by people who use them rather than by governments or private companies. In an interview talking about this centralized regulatory approach she had this to say on the subject. For some simple situations that theory works and we should keep it for the right situation but there are so many other rich solutions. When interconnectivity between the members within a game increases so typically does interdependence and this changes the nature of the game that we're playing. Externalities are things that we can put external to our domain of value and interest but interconnectivity reduces the capacity to do this. One good example of this is the warning signs on the side of cigarette packets that makes you aware of the negative externalities of smoking on your body. They're trying to connect you with the negative externality that you're creating so that you recognize your interdependence and factor it into the equation under which you're making your decision to smoke. Thus we can see an externality is not necessarily something that is far away. It is simply whatever you exclude from your value system so that reducing it has no reduction to your payoff. But connectivity takes this barrier down requiring us to recognize the value of the other entity and factor it into our decision. This connectivity can be of many different kinds. Communications is a form of connectivity that can enable positive interdependence and there is a robust finding in the social dilemma literature that cooperation increases when people are given a chance to talk to each other. Cooperation generally declines when group size increases. In large groups people often feel less responsible for the common good as they are more removed from it and less connected with the other people with whom they share this resource. Thus we can see what is really at the core of the social dilemma is the question of what people value and how far that value system extends. Wherever we stop seeing something as part of us or our group that is where negative externalities accumulate and start to give us the social dilemma. However by building further connections so that people recognize their interdependence with what they previously saw as external they will start to factor it into the value system under which they're making their choices and this will reduce the negative externalities. From this perspective then the issue is really one of value and connectivity. Connectivity can change the equation by working to internalize the externalities. Connectivity though is just an enabling infrastructure one still has to build the channels of communication and structures that enable positive interdependence. Building systems of cooperation in such a context means enabling ongoing interaction with identifiable others with some knowledge of previous behavior. This of reputations that are durable, searchable and accessible. Feedback mechanisms, transparency etc. These are all means of fostering positive interdependence once the interconnectivity is already present and through them self regulating and sustainable systems of cooperation can be formed. If we think back to the public goods game we talked about in the previous video. If the amount contributed by the players to the pool is not hidden then players tend to contribute significantly more. This is simply creating a transparent system where there is a feedback mechanism. As another example we could think of eBay. eBay is really a huge social dilemma game. You would not send money before receiving the item nor would the other party send the item before receiving the money. So how has eBay succeeded? Their success is not because eBay is going to throw you in jail if you don't play nice. It is because of communications, transparency and feedback mechanisms that build positive interdependence. This interconnectivity that builds positive interdependence between actors is not just in space but also over time. Probably the single biggest difference in the prisoner's dilemma is whether it is a once off or reoccurring game that is being played. And it is to this topic of games the play out over time that will turn to in the next section of the course.


Welcome, folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the Internet at tfnn.com. Always remember, folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. Hope everyone's having a great day, safe day. Let's make it a great night, folks. Let's make it a great month, September 1st, man. You're going to love it. Be impeccable with your word. Peace, fear with love. The human mind is like a fertile ground where seeds are continually being planted.  Your mind is only fertile for the words that come from love. Mugger to eyes! Let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow, Industrial's up 79, Nasdaq down 57, S&P's flat. We're going to go green any second here because we get, this is, the battle's been shaping up. I mean, we came off this low, bottom line, and we're right at the highs right now. Gold. Gold contract down $19.20 straight and it's 17.07 an ounce. We have silver down 21 cents, $17.67 an ounce. Light sweet crude off $3.35 at $86.18 a barrel. Notes and bonds. This is some big numbers out here, man. You get the 10-year note trading down $26 at $1.1602. The 30 is off a full 2 points plus 6 ticks at $134.07. You get the 10-year right now, folks, trading yielding 3.25 percent and king dollar. King dollar is over its highs. You're up 886 ticks. You're at 109, 586. The euro is at 99. The yen is at 140 and the British pound is at 115 to 1 US dollar. iPhone number's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Give us a call, folks. One note's going on in your world and the world of the S&P's. Let's take a look at them. This is a fun one. We're right at it, baby. Let's go with the E-minis first. I'll share right where we are. My take is that this is still not going to hold, man. This is going to be intriguing watching this shake out because what you have here, so look what we have. Bottom line, we made a low today in the E-mini of 3903. The number was trying to get over. We came off. We came off with volume, but we had volume like 40 minutes ago. The first time that we popped over that high, we had volume of 60,000 contracts. Well, what just happened is that we just tested that 60,000 with 44.  You did have a contraction of volume, however, by 33 percent. When you have 33 percent contraction of volume and you still have 50 minutes left in the marketplace, and what you're trading here, so you're trading right up to ice. This is really cool just to understand how this shakes out. Let me put it in the, where is it? No, I go to the spy. That's what I'll do. So you'll see all the sets up here, man. So you can see what we did here. There's ice right there. Just put it, put its head right into it. So that's 39504, and we just hit 39533. Now, this will take a bit to get through it. The reason I'm saying that I suspect he's still going to get some selling at the end is that, number one, you come up to ice. Number two, the dollar is still over its highs. Bottom line, we'll see where it shakes out. That's the spy, and the X100, same type of set up, because that's a normal occurrence when you come up to ice, folks. That's how markets like to trade. Well, you can see this is interesting that the Cues didn't make it. This is what's really cool about this also. The Cues, let's see, the first time up was 1.6 million, the second time was 1.3. The Cues didn't make it yet. The ice on the Cues is 29920. We hit 29823, I believe. Yeah, we did. So the Cues haven't made it yet. Now, if we go over to the dollar, we take a look at the dollar. This dollar's been hanging up here, and the bottom line, it looks like this dollar, bottom line, wants to not only get higher, but we'll see whether it gets away from this high, because it's already got away from it pretty well. The first high we're talking about out here is 109294. So, not only 300 ticks above it, but 300 ticks is 300 ticks. The reason that I'm bringing this up, because if you actually, let's say 300 ticks is not enough to say, okay, you're away from the swing, right?  Let's see, 121.030. As you can see, you know, the bottom line is that there's not much in the way, you know, once we took out the 103.820 mark, there's not much basic, well, there's not a lot, you get a supply line, but bottom line, your next swing point is almost at those highs. So, you know, I suspect what we're going to see is that it looks like to me that that thing actually wants to go there. So, Dow up 82, E-mini just went positive, you get the Nasdaq down 43 NQs, which is nothing, by the way, okay, because the bottom line, if we go look at the NQs, you know, this thing was down big, and we'll see where it shakes out. So, you know, if we close here, what you do have is that you get a nice little hammer that's happening. If we go through, you know, yesterday when I started the show, I went through the point, the 1 to 1.382 ABC structure, well, the spy did it. The spy, the 1 to 1 ABC was 392, we went to 390, rejected it at 395. Now, the Qs didn't make it. The Qs, the 1 to 1.382 on the Qs is 286.83, and thus far, you have only made 292.95, you know. So, we'll see how this baby shakes out, meaning that can it hold price here, can it totally all get green, and then do you get a bounce tomorrow? Now, the problem we're getting a bounce tomorrow is that it's going to be on light volume, so, you know, we'll see how it shakes out. Dow, Dow Industries up 81, the Nasdaq's down 67, S&Ps are flat, stay right there folks, we're coming right back.