By transcription Colgate dental cream to clean your breath while you clean your teeth and help stop tooth decay and Pomolic shave creams for a smoother more comfortable way to shave bring you our miss brooks starring Eve Arden Under the direction of Al Lewis Well, many of the traditional basketball rivalries were settled during the past week and Madison High School Where our miss Brooks teaches English was no exception Their big game with Clay City High was scheduled for Friday night and last Wednesday morning while driving her to school Walter Denton the team's manager tried to sell miss Brooks a ticket I'm sorry, Walter, but I don't think I'm interested. Don't think you're interested, but miss Brooks. That's treason How much are the seats a buck a piece if this be treason make the most of it? Look, Walter, I don't want you to think that I'm lacking in school spirit The reason I haven't attended more games this season is because of embarrassment. Our team was just awful 16 straight defeats, isn't it this year all together? It's 39 But the important game is Friday night with Clay City. I know I saw the Clay City game last year I'll never forget how miserable I felt when I left that gym The score was Clay City 92 Madison 6 They really clobbered us in the second half I hope we make a better showing this year if only to keep our beloved principles blood pressure from reaching a new high Well, I don't like to be prematurely optimistic miss Brooks But I met a fellow on our campus yesterday who may make a big difference in the outcome of Friday night's game You mean through him we have a chance of winning definitely I'm surprised that you Walter you should have turned him into the district attorney immediately Now this is a kid who went to Clay City high until his folks moved into our district last week And now he's gonna transfer to Madison and miss Brooks the minute he told me his name I knew he'd be a cinch to make our basketball team Guess who it was Lionel Barrymore Serious miss Brooks. Now this guy happens to be the greatest scholastic basketball player in this area. And what a build on him He must be six feet four. Who is this super kid? Walter? Well, his name is Tex Barton Of course, Texas is just a nickname because his family came to Clay City from Texas sounds reasonable His real name is Vic Barton Don't you remember the fellow who scored over 50 points against us in the game last year? Well now that you mentioned it I do remember a boy named Vic Barton. Well Tex Barton and Vic Barton are the same person No wonder he's so tall Here we are miss Brooks. Oh say I think that's Tex Barton's work school now. After you miss Brooks. Thanks, Walter Hey, Walter Denton I'm sure glad to oh, excuse me ma'am. I reckon you're Walter's mother Let's have another reckon on me This is miss Brooks texts. She teaches English here English. Yes, it's the language spoken just north of Texas I've got to be getting in now nice to have met you tech most people feel that way Hardly would you mind if I joined you after school and we chin for a spell? Well, I'm afraid I'll have to take my chin home after school I've got to help mrs. Davis fix dinner tonight. That's awful decent of you, ma'am. I'll be happy to have dinner with you Be out visiting tonight after I spend what I got on me for lunch I won't be able to afford no dinner unless I get me an invite And of course down home. We don't think twice about sharing a grub with a stranger. Yes, sure There's nothing like splitting your chow to help you get a queen. Well get a pencil. I'll tell you how to get to my chuck wagon Necessary miss Brooks. I'll bring text over myself at six o'clock sharp and ma'am. Thanks a heap for the invite Welcome hoppy Brooks as suppose you take text into mr. Conklin's office that you can help him get registered real quick and Speed is of the essence as you know. Yes, I do.  Do you think the principal will be willing to swear me in this morning? Well, it's all according to his mood text. I can promise you one thing though when we get to his office You'll either be sworn in or at Mr. Conklin's office is right down this hall text. He's having one of his tantrums again Oh, this is text Barton Harriet text. This is Harriet Conklin. Howdy, I really something I try to be Too bold miss. I wouldn't exactly call you a little old lump of sugar But I wouldn't want to leave you too close to my little old pindo either Wish I know what to tell my little old stomach. You'll have to excuse us Harriet We've got to see your father right away. All right, miss Brooks. See you later. Yes. Bye Friend sir to unarmed friends Come in A good morning, mr. Conklin. I wouldn't disturb you sir, but it's quite one moment, please So it's finally happened miss Brooks. Mr.  Osgood Conklin. Howdy What do you know a torque for you, and please be brief I thought you might check his transfer papers. Mr. Conklin text wants to enroll as soon as possible Well, I suppose that can be arranged from what high school are you transferring a clay city fine? I'm always happy to meet any boy who comes clay city Yes, sir. Our principal mr. Real told me a lot about you mr. Conklin, but I'm glad to meet you anyhow This Brooks kindly removed this elongated st. Bernard from my office Who are you calling a saint Bernard?  Conklin didn't mean anything derogatory You two have got to be friends now go ahead text give him your paw. I mean shake hand Side ma'am now listen to me mr.  Oh, please mr. Conklin. You can't know on this short notice whether taxes are done for now That's right.  No, how? But if you don't want me to go to your school, I'll just go right on back to play city Oh wait text you'll be glad to welcome text in the Madison mr. Conklin if you'll just let me tell you why you've got to accept him I have got to accept no one Madison High is my kingdom miss Brooks and the choice of the subject therein is my choice and mine alone The interview is at an end, but mr. Conklin. That is all Context I'll show you to the door I'll talk to him alone and bring you back when he's in a better mood. Okay, miss Brooks You sure been mighty decent to me ma'am Hasta la vista mm-hmm Adios Andre Mr. Conklin Sir Fire yes From me to question your motives, but I'm afraid you've hurt that boy's feelings Well, perhaps I was a bit harsh with the lad, but he caught me at a bad time I just hung up on Jason Brill when you both arrived at malevolent old devil phone Just to taunt me about the basketball game Friday night got me so upset I bet him a new hat on the outcome of the game before I remembered the results of last year's contest That was disastrous wasn't it they clobbered us Dug up the newspaper account of the game from my file. I've got it right here. Now look at this headline Clay City eeks out victory over Madison 124 to 7 That must have been quite a second half There's an interesting subhead too. It says wild-eyed spectator leaps on court and bites basketball Usher's eject Osgood Conklin He is a bald-faced lie. I know it is mr. Conklin. I was there you bit the referee. I merely broke his whistle What burns me up the most though is this reminder that after the game Madison was presented with the symbol of defeat Cornelius the goat Let's see. Oh, here's that part Cornelius must be fed and housed on the campus of the losing team for the entire school year After four years of defeat the goat becomes the permanent property of the humiliated institution Well, that's a switch on a loving cup Let me remind you miss Brooks that Madison has lost three games in a row to play city if we lose this one that Bleeding monstrosity will be on our hands forever. Mr. Conklin Do you remember a boy named Barton who scored over 50 points against this for Clay City? Oh, of course, I remember now he ran as ragged. Well, that happens to be Tex Barton The boy you just gave the old heave-ho What and he wanted to transfer to Madison miss Brooks dear miss Brooke We've got to do something you've got to do something anything calm down. Mr. Conklin all isn't lost He's coming to my house for dinner tonight, and I'm sure I can undo some of the damage your temper has done That is my problem miss Brooks. I'll be happy to have dinner at your house tonight After all in Texas we always say there's nothing like splitting your chow to help get better acquainted So I've heard and the way I figure if and I can rattle up enough grub We might get so well acquainted.  Yes The Colgate way is the most thoroughly proved and accepted home method of oral hygiene known today Over two years research showed brushing teeth right after eating with Colgate dental cream Helped stop more decay for more people than ever before reported in dentipris history The Colgate way stopped tooth decay best no other dentifris Ammoniated or not offer such conclusive proof And you should know that Colgate's while not mentioned by name was the only tooth paste used in the research on tooth Decay recently reported in Reader's Digest So always follow the Colgate way to clean your breath while you clean your teeth and stop tooth decay best And the Colgate way stopped tooth decay best time arrived I hurried to the school cafeteria to meet mr. Boynton for lunch, but he was over 10 minutes late From the explanation he gave when he did arrive It was obvious he had been detained by someone even nearer and dearer to his heart than I am I'm sorry miss Brooks, but I had to stop by the gym and untie Cornelius the goat I only person in school who pays any attention to the poor beast. I know pull up a window and sit down Before I forget I brought a little surprise in for you It's a box of French chocolates for me, but it isn't my birthday or Christmas or anything I know it. Can't I give you a box of candy if I feel like you certainly can and it's very sweet of you, mr. Boynton I wish I could do something to show my appreciation Well now that you mention it. I'll be very happy to have dinner at your house tonight For a minute there I thought I'd have to keep coaxing you You will be more than welcome mr. Boynton, but I think I should warn you There'll be quite a crowd over tonight. You see when I was in mr. Conklin's office this morning Walter Denton told me all about it miss Brooks as I understand it mr. Conklin insulted the boy and now he's got to woo him into playing basketball for Madison Heavens knows the team can use him and I'd like to help get him into the fold What time does the wooing begin miss Brooks? Shall we say about nine o'clock nine? Yes I should be able to get rid of techs by 8 30 Dinner's almost ready Connie you've been a big help dear, but I didn't do anything mr. Davis I know but you stayed out of my way all afternoon Now you better get back into the living room and join tech. Oh, he's all right, mr. Davis I gave him last Sunday's funnies to read and a box of French chocolates to nibble on You know you wouldn't think to look at that kid that he's Vic Barton the famous clay city basketball star He'd have to be something like that But why is mr. Conklin so anxious to get him to enroll at Madison? Oh, it's a long story mr. Davis I'll give you a rundown after dinner pardon me ladies, but I got a little lonesome in the living room The Loof Lurpus are all gone miss Brooks the Loof Lurpus Those French candies you gave me to nibble on I'll set the box on the sink Is there something I can do to help get chow ready miss Davis? Yes, there is takes you can get the silverware out if you will Oh, that's the front door. I'll answer it. Just make yourself at home.  I wonder what made her say that? I'm Vic Barton miss Davis miss Brooks must have me mixed up with my brother Vince. Oh Shocks, I never played no varsity basketball at clay city Will you come in here, please we've got company right away ma'am. I'll be back to help you in a minute miss Davis It's all right take your time Look who's here takes it miss it's mr. Conklin slip us five pardon What's the matter with him? Well, mr. Conklin wants you to know that? Then he was just teasing this morning when he threw you out of his office. I of course my boy I do that to all new pupils. It's sort of a an initiation now Although we don't place too much emphasis on athletics at Madison I just knew you'd want a star in some sport or other So I brought you this all wool sweater, and I had your varsity letters sewn on it in advance You see a big M What clay city we always spelt varsity with a V Only fun in this morning, and you really want me to join up I guess I can think it over a spell longer, please do my boy I gotta get back to the kitchen now miss Davis wants me to get out the silverware silverware and risk cutting those Beautiful basket shooting hands on a sharp knife. I should say not I'll get the silverware myself Be right there. I'm in mr. Boynton. Thanks, mr. Brooks. I'm sorry. I'm late. Oh This must be Tex howdy. This is mr. Boynton Tex Howdy sort of a welcome to Madison present. I sure what is it mr. Boynton? It's a knee pad a brand new one those are the best kind I'm sure grateful mr. Boynton. I'd offer you one of the French chocolates miss books gave me But I'm afraid they're plum gone French chocolates with miss Brooks. That's the same candy. I gave oh We're doing a big business tonight. Come on in. It's open Hi folks. Here you are Tex. Oh boy. Here's a little present for you for me I noticed you ride a bicycle, so I bought you this master padlock to put on it when you leave it in front of school You mean somebody might steal it Please Tex. That's one thing about Madison High. There's never been a master padlock stolen Why is everybody being so all fired nice to me first mr. Compton gives me a sweater then mr. Boynton brings me a knee pad You give me this lock and of course miss Brooks gave me a whole box of loofalurpa chocolates What but that's the same candy. I gave mr. Boynton last night We'd better send the box to J Edgar Hoover To keep him busy for months Would you please put a new light bulb in the kitchen ceiling for me? We don't have a step ladder I'll be right with you miss Davis. Excuse me folks.  I've got to talk to Walter So you gave this candy to mr. Boynton Walter Would you mind telling me what prompted that unusual action? It's a lie The fact that mr. Boynton gave us a biology test this morning Which if I didn't pass would make me ineligible to manage the basketball team Friday night has nothing to do with it Why that's nothing short of bribery and I suppose I'll have to reimburse you for the chocolates you indirectly donated Oh, that won't be necessary miss Brooks. I got him for nothing for mr. Conklin. Oh He doesn't know it What do you mean? Well, I helped Harriet burn some rubbish yesterday So she told me to help myself to some candy on the way out of her house Well, I didn't see the jelly bean she meant for me to take so I just latched on to the box of French chocolates It wasn't until today that Harriet told me that old Marvel had bought the chocolates for a special occasion Gee if he finds out I swiped him he'll drug me.  It's not his hand. I'm worried about When he gets your drop kick in the seat of my pants, so look like the lobby of Grumman's Chinese Well, take it easy raffle nobody's gonna put the finger on you around here Well, everything's working out just splendidly miss Brooks. Oh, hello, miss Martin Good evening sir. I have the honor to inform you all of the fact that thanks to my warm and endearing personality Thanks, Barton has consented to enroll at Madison High immediately. Oh, that's wonderful. Oh, congratulations, sir Now you men stay right here, I'll go out and get the dishes to the dinner table. I Thought I'd better get the dishes mrs. Davis. All right, dear. I just checked what we'll need on the kitchen table Did that mr. Conklin tell you the thrilling news about takes here? Yes, he did well needless to say tax We're all delighted to have place that is top basketball star as the Madison Pupil Oh a lot of men and miss Brooks about that basketball stuff. There's something you ought to know You mustn't try to carry so many dishes at once, honey. Oh, I can manage them all. What were you saying tax? Well, it's like I was telling miss Davis. You must have me mixed up with my brother Vince Barton I never played no basketball for Clay City Crash what happened? Hey, what is it miss Brooks? Nothing? I merely dropped a few dishes I'll help you pick them up. I'll take the plate. I'll take the soup bowl, and I'll take the cups and sauces You've got to be more careful miss Brooks here. You can hold this large platter. Thank you Shocks, I don't know what made miss Brooks gets a skittish all of a sudden. Oh, just forget it boy I don't understand all I said to her was she had me mixed up with my brother Vince And that I never played no basketball for Clay City Let's make it unanimous. There's one point. I think I ought to clear up I said I never played no basketball for Clay City, but I didn't say I never played no basketball It's just that this being my freshman year I wasn't able to straighten out my credits till a couple of weeks ago. Nevertheless the fact for me I don't like to brag After I worked out with the team for a few days why all the coaches agreed my brother Vince was Almost as good as I am. Nevertheless the fact remains Vince was almost as good as you are Yes, sir. If I said it once I'll say it twice this calls for a celebration his dinner ready, Mrs. Davis not quite Connie. It'll take about a half hour yet Why don't you all go in the living room and wait? Oh, but I'm starved if I could just take something with me to nibble on I say what's this? Loofler for chocolate Well, I see we have another prank stay in our midst Prankster. Yes. Yes. This candy is sold only in novelty shops. I bought mine early this year for fear they'd run out I'm going to send a box to Jason Brill on April 1st, but I don't understand. Mr. Conklin What's in the chocolate? What isn't in them? There's enough pepper and spice in each one to have Brill clutching his bloated bay window for hours Very funny Are you positive these are the same kind of chocolates you bought Mr. Conklin? Looflerper? Looflerper is simply April Fool's spelled backwards Candy it would taste funny, wouldn't it? Well, that's the beauty of this particular brand It's got a sweet coating that disguises the pepper. It takes about an hour to work, but once it catches on oh brother Oh brother Text text speak to me. Why are you turning that color? I'm a getting out of here getting out, but why what's wrong boy? I'm a going back to clay city I'll protect you at least nobody never tried to poison me. I'm beginning to feel like an emotional yo-yo Well, you'll find it out sooner or later, Mr. Conklin text ate a whole box of those candies. What but how did he get them? They were a gift a gift, but he's liable to be laid up for a week And if he doesn't play Friday night, we're certain to get possession of that reeking goat Cornelius Now then Mr. Boynton Denton, Miss Brooks, I demand to know who gave that candy to tech spot Mr. Conklin, I can disclose the identity of the culprit with one word and that word is And as our miss Brooks returns in just a moment, but first You get smoother more comfortable comfortable Shaves by shaving the palm olive brushless way Yes smoother more comfortable comfortable Shaves the palm olive brushless way Hey, that's a fact man. 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Yes a more comfortable shave You get smoother more comfortable comfortable shaves the palm olive brushless way Next time you shave try the palm olive brushless shaving cream way And now once again here is eve art This week the colgate palm olive peak company salutes the girl scouts of the united states of america on their 39th birthday Their ceaseless work training and activities have proved to all of us that good scouts today are good citizens tomorrow Congratulations girl scouts This is verne smither reminding you to tune in next week to another hour miss brook show brought to you by Palm olive shave creams for a smoother more comfortable way to shave And colgate dental cream to clean your breath while you clean your teeth and help stop tooth decay Our miss brook starring eve arden is produced by larry burns written by al louis and joe quillen with the music of wilbur hatch Listen to this with marvellous vell v e l you can save 90 of dish washing work


Basil Chapman, what's going on? Hi Tom, how are you doing? I'm doing great, man, yourself. Very good, thank you. You know, I heard, you know, and I just loved hearing this too, man, Monday morning I'm listening to your show and I hear you're driving back from Brooklyn and of course I know you're going to see your grandchildren. Right. Right? Isn't that cool? Absolutely, yes. It's just amazing, man.  You know, I know you always hear about this, folks, your grandchildren change your life, man. I mean, there's something, there's just something magical about it, man. Well, there is. It's just, and not only that, it's kind of the way you now gauge age because they're growing up, you're getting older and it's a way that you can kind of judge time and time flies. That's scary. You remember when I went to Brooklyn, when the first one was born, that's 14 years ago. Wow. It's amazing. That is so cool. It was exciting and I also actually got to play tennis in Brooklyn. Nice. It was very nice. Good weather we've had lately. That's beautiful. So, can we talk a little about the webinar first, Basil? So, what I like to do always, mostly over the year, when I have these webinars, I try to plan it so that we're looking at a potential market turn and just, for me, the going down to going up. Yes. But in this particular instance, because this is a very complex, and I'm talking about time, if you look at the NASDAQ, you're talking about some of these stocks have had spectacular moves. So, you can understand if they take six or even nine months to consolidate. So, what I thought was would be appropriate is, don't let's look for some kind of big market turn as soon as I do my webinar, and often we get that, but that's not the issue. I think we are starting to look at sectors, the former sectors, and there are the new sectors. The sectors that are under the radar, that is, they've had a buying. You can see the charts improving. No one's really talking about that. Certain sections of security, certain sections of defense, aerospace. So, I'm looking at those. We've already started some positions in that area, working out quite nicely. I also like to have a section that I call Screamer stocks. These are stocks that are under $10, single digits. And they have the potential sometimes within a day if we can time them right just to start a quick move up. And I show how you can, we can get in. We've done this many times. You get in and we raise the stop immediately and we whittle away. So, if everything works out, we left with a position at the end of the day, which sometimes turns out into a nice position for a couple of weeks. Sometimes you're out immediately, so there's that. The other thing is, the patterns I look for, for instance, here's a very good example. I'm showing the Dow, and if you can see it there, but I'm showing the Dow chart. On the left here is the daily chart. I spoke about this sometime, I said, the Dow made an all-time high at 35,631 August 18th. We were fortunate. We did short the Dow just about 100 points of the all-time high. We held it for a while. We're out of that. We have a core position still from the long position we got on the day of the low of August, of last year, March the 23rd, 2020. So, we're trading around that. We've had little positions that we keep buying the diamonds for these big rallies. So, there are trades that we can make. But what are the patterns? Look how easy it is to identify. Look, this bottom one here has a straight line down and then an arch. I call that the lowercase H pattern. I nicknamed it the dreaded H. Why? Because when it takes out that left side low, it can continue much lower. But look, here's the H pattern, and it took out that left side low. It went much lower. There was a little mini one right there. Took it out. And then what I said is be careful because that lowercase H can become a lowercase M. And that would mean that we can bounce but not break above the high because there's a lowercase M pattern, a second arch. Well, look at this. That's exactly what we've got here. Even yesterday, over the last four sessions, we've had a spike to a particular technique that I'll be demonstrating and showing. How you can use it in your own charting. Look, lower lows.  And look how many times this trend line has been hit exactly. Even yesterday, it hits exactly and pulls back. And there you go from the lowercase H to the lowercase M. So as I'm explaining it, you can see it live. And I want to be doing that with a lot of charts, a lot of positions that I'd like to get. These are stocks that are on the buy list. I've waited patiently and I think they're coming close to starting to enter these positions. So that's what we'll be talking about again. And then I'll explain that I always talk about a rectangle pattern. A rectangle pattern can last a lot longer than your patients. Look at this. The down made high 35,091 back in May pulls back to 33,271. And then very briefly goes to the all-time high of 35,631. Where are we? This is now eight months later, seven months later. We're still in this trading range. So trading ranges, how do you deal with trading ranges? What did they do? You were mentioning the GDX just a moment ago. Look at the GDX. This is the gold miners. Went sideways in the weekly chart. Look at this, it went for weeks sideways and then it broke down. How do you deal with a stock that breaks down or a pattern? Well, there's a way that you can deal with it. This is what I call Chapman Wave, one-to-one parallel extension. It went all the way down. Almost hit that one-to-one extension and now it's turned up. So there are patterns that I'll be showing that apply to the charts.  You're just looking at patterns. And I also want to introduce some fundamental things where I'm saying I think security is a big deal. So an ETF like HEC, which we don't own right now, but we're looking to see on the next pullback, this is the prime cybersecurity ETF. When you get into it, I mean cybersecurity is here to stay. This looks like a long-term buy, but maybe you have to find the right place. So there are a lot of stocks that we're looking at that we would like to enter on the long side. And I'll be talking about that. So it's going to be a very productive webinar because it's part and parcel of what we're looking at all the way through years. And I spoke to you about the S&P only being in leg B. That means 2021 is the earliest it can get to that leg D. So all these things will be put together. And folks, it's very easy to come into Basel's workshop. Come over to our website at TFNN. You're going to see it right under featured content. You hit open and call. You're going to get the newsletter. You're going to get a great workshop next Tuesday from Basel. Basel, you have a great one. Safe one. We look forward to the show tomorrow. Thank you, Tom. Thank you. Stay right there, folks. We'll come right back.


I think we're gonna get started good welcome everybody let's let's get started the faster we can assemble everybody the faster we get into the questions I want to welcome everybody here and hopefully everybody is not too exhausted from the these wonderful days and meetings we've had let me introduce everybody I think everybody knows everybody we're in a different order than I had but to my immediate left is Yakem Levy who is the Minister of Finance from the country of Brazil to Yakem's left is Kuroda-san here you go Kuroda who is the governor of the Bank of Japan and we have Benoit Coray from the member of the Executive Board of the ECB and I'm sure he'll have a lot to talk about today Mark Carney the governor of Bank of England and the chair of the Financial Stability Board and to Mark far left is Minzou who is the deputy managing director of the IMF who's making sure we are doing what we say we all do and making sure we have an organized world so I wanted to set the tone and and and talk about the world and as I was reflecting on it I was reflecting on this exact meeting last year so last year as smart as we all were we never talked about oil was going to go down from a hundred to below fifty I don't think we ever heard of the word ISIS we didn't certainly talk about the Ukraine and Crimea we were confident the Federal Reserve is beginning to tighten and I would say the overall tone of the committee of the group and also the mood at Davos was that Europe was healing very rapidly and and so everyone I hope we're gonna be a little better this time and I would say coming into this session is my observation there's quite a bit more pessimism throughout the whole session this time from last year so as I said last year we came away very positive I think in some cases that was probably true but in many cases obviously it wasn't so so with that set up and we're gonna go talk about the world today but I also want to bring up the world with technology and how we navigate that as finance ministers as as governors essential banks and as IMF thinks about it but before we do that let's go talk about the most some of the most pressing issues of the world today and the events of this week so Benoit let me start with you you had a busy week I think the marketplace is approving of your actions but more importantly tell can you tell me in the audience what were your views of Europe going into the meeting and importantly the consideration of quantitative easing what do you what do you think that will do for Europe and Europe's future well thank you thank you Larry and good afternoon well that was certainly a momentous week and it had become pretty clear that we had to do something given the weakening inflation prospects and and you know what our life is simple we have a pretty clear mandate that inflation going back to 2% close to 2% below 2% as we put it and we had to do something so that became pretty clear and in the last days the the only discussions were on how to do it and that was a discussion we learned from what Mark did we learn from what Corolla Sun did we learn from what the Fed did but none of it is directly applicable to Europe because it's totally different we have different markets market structures we have a different institutional setup and we are absolutely unique in one dimension which is that we have one single monetary policy for 19 governments 19 treasuries so anything we did had to be fit to our purpose it had to be fit to our unique situation and that was really what the discussion had to focus on in the last days then on the question what can we do for Europe well we can do everything for Europe we all have a job to do we've done our part on Thursday others have to do their part and there is nothing we can do as ECB as central bank that can lift the growth rate of Europe in a in a lasting way that's about productivity that's about having the right business environment that's about having people want to invest we can make it cheaper to invest but people have to to want to invest and that is really the role of finance minister that is a role of government so we all have a job to do was currency component of the deliberation and whether a view where currency would ultimately go then the currency yeah it's it's part of the channels it's not it's probably not the most important channel we don't have targets as you know very well we don't have numbers the currency adjusts on markets it floats it's really floating it adjusts as a result of monetary policy decisions so it's part of the transmission it's not the main consideration so mark I want to go to you first and I may come back to Benoit as the chairman of the financial stability board quantitative easing creates in some markets some distortions you see you see very low-interest rates as a result of these purchases large-scale purchase by central banks you have depending on the maturities of these purchases you have a flattening of the old curve and you have behavior changes in the marketplace and I'm sure those behavior changes are anticipated but those behavior changes will probably lead to more movement towards higher yielding less liquid instruments and what we witness in the United States and we've seen now in Japan it moves huge volumes of money into the equity markets there are some governors in the world have talked about bubbles or things and then you know and I don't know if these are unanticipated but you spend a great deal of time focusing on macro potential risk and so how do you navigate the issue of making sure that the economies meet their targets meet their inflation targets and yet these methods QE creates true market distortions well let me begin by welcoming the steps that the ECB has taken in the way they have taken them but your questions vary on point because in order for this to be effective a number of things have to be in place including a framework to ensure that we maintain financial stability not just in Europe but globally and we're well aware the ECB the Bank of Japan the Fed the IMF Bank of England certainly that in an environment of low-interest rates and low-interest rates for a period of time and also quantitative easing there can be excessive risk-taking but let's let's break this down because what those monetary policies are looking to do is to move from an environment of reticence to take risk to responsible risk-taking ultimately responsible risk-taking in the real economy and we're trying to avoid reckless risk-taking now reckless risk-taking is built on false assumptions let's there's a few fault potential false assumptions the first false assumption is that there's a central bank put that the central bank will always and everywhere be there to protect against downside moves in asset prices of any type first point second point and the second false assumption we're particularly concerned about is an illusion of liquidity that has existed in a number of financial markets now I would say that illusion of liquidity is gradually being disabused we've seen over the recent months a series of jump to illiquidity if you will including in the most historically liquid markets such as the US Treasury market October so so what are we doing to reduce financial stability risks in this environment of appropriately loose or appropriately accommodated monetary policy first and foremost it's about shoring up the core of the financial system in other words the major banks that are at the core of the financial system it's why we increased capital ten times capital requirements ten times it's why the European authorities went through the aqr and inch and the stress test and ensured that the 125 largest banks at the core of the European system are appropriately capitalized it's a much better transmission mechanism but they're also better protected in these bouts of illiquidity and I will I will say in my roles as governor of the Bank of England and chair of the financial stability board I can get daily position mark to mark position all the global banks and in these bouts of illiquidity the losses when there have been losses have been very small so the core of the system hasn't amplified this illiquidity the second thing we're looking to do is to reduce the amplification channels from the core of the system out two points and I'll end with this the traditional channel the channel we all lived through in 2007 2008 2009 was through securities lending markets repo markets and and straight securities lending bouts of extreme illiquidity haircuts go to the moon at the same time that bar goes up so to be technical but that's that's the dynamic at the core so we put in place through the financial stability board the major central banks major authorities minimum haircut requirements which will dampen those ups and downs the big question for us now and includes you know your institution number institutions are here and and watching is what about liquidity cycles that come from those fund managers that actually don't have leverage they do maturity transformation it's 35 trillion plus of daily liquidity mutual funds although simplified you mutual funds or usets those types of firms that have daily liquidity but actually invest in relatively illiquid securities how did they manage their liquidity and to what extent can the system as a whole get liquidity to them so that in these bouts that we expect to happen we expect to happen increasingly by design because we're pushing liquidity risk into the private sector how can they how can they dampen them make them work so it's it is your questions on point because it's it's front of mind we've taken the first major steps which is why it is appropriate not just for monetary policy reasons but for broader financial stability reasons that the ECB is acted as they have this week and I could ask this to Benoit or you mark in some chance is there are some people who believe that QE it creates more issues social issues in society because they're big winners and big losers those who have capital in financial assets are generally big winners and those who don't and so it creates even more a greater fragmentation in society do you have a view on that either one of you think that's a that's a very deep question we know that large-scale asset purchases until risks as a mark said it entails financial stability risks and on that front I can say that we feel safer now that we have single supervision and it's not me doing supervision by the way it separates within the ECB it is Daniel Nui and Sabine a lot of slager and they are great and they're great because they are tough and they will be tougher that their predecessors and if we have tough supervision we feel safer to have loose monetary policy and it also entails risk as you said the risk to widen inequalities we have to be extremely mindful of it my answer would be that the best way not to increase inequalities is to have good policies to support the poorest and to create jobs at the at the lower end of the wage ladder at the lower end of the skills ladder because these are the one who are unemployed and in the case of Europe that is mostly structural that is mostly about making labor markets work better so if we make labor markets work better in complement to large scale asset purchases then you could have you could have the best of both world you have expansion and you don't increase inequalities so Benoit should we expect to see a more vocal ECB related to those items and been and importantly talking to the finance ministers of the various countries on those mechanistic ways of improving inequalities within those countries more reforms no we'll certainly we'll certainly speak our voice we'll start on Monday actually Monday where we have the Europe meeting and this will certainly will be the discussion but that said it's not a it's not a bargaining it's not a quick pro quo obviously and as I said we all have a job to do we do our job they do our job their jobs just let me make a very basic point all monetary policy has distributional consequences we lower interest rates it benefits those benefits debtors people owe money at the expense of the people who save money and I can assure you I hear from savers and understand that I do absolutely the the point here and it was a point in the US point in the UK that one of the biggest distributional issues is the risk that people are unemployed for too long they they become detached from the labour market they lose their skills so-called hysteresis so there has been a race against hysteresis in the UK where we've created over 600,000 jobs in the last year where the unemployment rates drop down below 6% where wages are starting to pick up we're winning that race to the extent you can from a monetary policy perspective but there are profound other policy issues that are necessary and they interact with your I think your last topic on technology to make a real difference so just to just to summarize monetary policy always has distributional consequences there are broader policies that have to address them and they can be redistributive or structural more broadly and we need to recognize that but if we don't get the basics right we're not even in the conversation let's hear from men related to these issues because these have big consequential issues for the IMF and and so how do you how do you think about these issues yeah the first issues I would like to say we welcome ECB's decisions when we talk about ECB's policy we talk all these consequences right but the key objective is create a space for structural form and for investments for growth as Sabin once mentioned I would like to re-enhance that point I think it is absolutely important I think a European in a good position today because we have more monetary space we'll have a little bit of fiscal space because all your prices are so low but it's absolutely important leverages of opportunity to move forward the structure reform and so much talk about structure reform I don't want to repeat anything but I want to mention one thing as is investments if you compare today with 2007 the investment share in GDP in Europe lost five percentage of GDP this is a big gap if you lost the five percent of GDP investments in seven years how can you have a strong growth this is not including infrastructure investments it's more today it's investments in knowledge economy investments in long-term R&D investments in innovative SME I think this is all European needed so I would emphasize when we think about the monetary policy and we think about the QE I think that we need carry out firmly on the structure reform and investment projects now and fully understand it's not easy because it's not easy go through the political process to the structure form but the great challenge you call on the great leaders right I think this is the moments either the history choose the leader or leader change the history well we first have to educate the population in voting in the right leader to do that then right that's exactly but also depends on the proposal yeah let me turn to Corotas on you've been very bold in your actions and you've been consistently bold does I'm still looking for the third arrow so if anybody in the audience has it sometimes I feel like you are one of the most lonely men in the world because when you when you started this ambition plan I assume you we were gonna have more support like what men was talking about in terms of policy so a where is Japan versus where you thought Japan would have been after to this two-year program and what how do you believe where do you believe this third arrow will begin and how successful this become yes thank you but before going to Japan's situation maybe let me say one thing about the global economy as you indicated at the outset some pessimism prevailing in the boss this year I think it's a bit exaggerated because I think two good factors which could boost the global economy outlook in the next couple of years we have to carefully assess one is of course substantial decline of oil prices I mean 50% oil price decline could accelerate the global economic growth in coming years the next factor positive factor is of course a big decision by ECB this QE is is certainly quite significant with somewhat open-ended nature and that would greatly improve the world economic outlook because after all the eurozone is the biggest economic unit in the world bigger than the US so these two factors lower oil prices and big decision by ECB could further improve world I think yes euro has depreciated somewhat but as Benoit emphasized ECB does not target the exchange rate like Bank of Japan and it's only one little small part of of transmission mechanism and and by making this big decision the eurozone could recover strongly and and the deflationary pressures could be eradicated then that would be great for the global economy now coming to Japan the so-called Abenomics was started two years ago with three allows namely aggressive monetary easing fiscal stimulus in the short term but coupled with a medium term fiscal consolidation and thirdly substantial structural reforms to raise potential growth rate toward 2% aggressive monetary easing certainly Bank of Japan has been doing implementing and the so-called quantitative and qualitative monetary easing QQE started April 2014 was further expanded last October and the inflation rate has been steadily improving although in the last couple of months because of sharp decline of oil prices headline inflation slow down but we think that that eventually inflation rate would accelerate because of strong positive impact on the economic growth in Japan of substantial oil price decline now how about the third allow as you said actually there are many things done although there are few which have been very noticeable one of them is substantially increased female level participation ratio in the last two years female women's level participation ratio increased by 3 percentage point reaching the historic high level although the level is still somewhat below somewhat lower than the OECD average so that there is still room for increasing female participation ratio or women's greater activities in the society but this is somewhat neglected by foreign investors but this is really important and many Japanese companies now have women female senior staff and foreign workers foreign talents the government last year decided to relax visa policy for construction workers and now the government is likely to further relax visa policies for talent foreign talents experts in other sectors where labor shortage is quite acute labor market reform also is a big issue TPP could ignite Japanese agriculture sector and also the service sector recently the government decided to significantly reduce corporate tax burden in the next two years and also they are determined to further reduce corporate tax burden so as to not just encourage Japanese companies to invest more in Japan but foreign companies to come to Japan and invest in Japan so I think structural reforms deregulations they are very important in the long run and they would have significant impact on gross potential but by nature it takes time they take time so I hope people are slightly more patient crotus on you know the markets are never patient so can I jump on Japan issue because I think we should not be that patient because to see Japan has a pretty good chance to pick strong growth this year yeah but the basic was very rape last year almost a zero and then you Mr. Krita created a money space exchange rates are very low the government have a fiscal stimulus package right and the lower oil create a huge fiscal space and for you so I think you have a lot of money space physical space exchange rates and facilitating all the world so I think it's a good win the opportunity for Japan to firmly carry out the structure reform and move the whole thing forward I think this is a very important period so we should not be I'm not also we I mean from our map I would say that answer from job just found a few maybe Japanese should not be that patient don't wash up either but there's a one downside but this is one issues when I expect to see Japan pick up with pretty good growth but the one things I will see your carry on structure form but one things when you have a good growth we have to put physical consolidation back on table because when you have a 250% GDP that is without a strong inflation as strong growth is a very difficult to bring them down you pay interest rates ten years ago you have a roughly 150 base point of 150% GDP it's a 1.9% of your GDP today you almost double how much you pay 2% so you are very sensitive to interest rates yeah and the interest rates is really on upside so I think we should Japan should not be patient on fiscal consolidation side man I hope you're this strong also for Europe too then why that that's exactly that exactly what I wanted to say good I've been listening extremely carefully to that discussion and I will I will stand on main side that in the case of Europe being patient is just a risk a risk that we don't want to take we need growth in Europe and we need sustainable growth in Europe and that also has to be with the politics of the European project with low growth entrenched unemployment people being dragged out of the labor market we are seeing the whole political foundation of the European project being being weakened and this cannot last for too long two points to respond to mean you first on patience or of course I I I don't want to say that we have to be patient about the way the government implement those structural form we should not we should request the demand the government to make necessary structural reforms the regulation as quickly as possible but impact on the economy takes time because if you improve the environment for investment by the corporate sector yes the corporate sector would respond because now they have much lower corporate tax burden but that could take time and then the final impact on the potential growth rate again would take time so that we should be patient as far as the final impact effect on the economy is concerned but action should be taken as quickly as possible in that sense I agree second point fiscal consolidation again I agree with Minjoo the government set the so-called the medium-term fiscal consolidation plan under which the government is is required to have the primary deficit by fiscal 2015 and that government actually implemented under the current budget for fiscal 2015 but more difficult challenging goal is to completely eradicate primary deficit by fiscal 2020 that requires much more effort by the government but the government has already made it quite clear that by summer this year they would come up with more concrete plan to achieve that primary surplus by fiscal 2015 meaning that some revenue enhancement measures as well as expenditure cut measures would be specified and that is quite necessary because as you said the government has accumulated so much debt already and the appropriate and reliable fiscal consolidation plan is absolutely necessary for Japan I'm gonna move on to the emerging world and but also talk about how I believe the emerging world is going to become much more of a world of divergence the emerging world is going to see many more success stories and we've seen in the past and many failures as you and you just look at the oil markets and how we've created some big winners and big losers and also the marketplace talking about patients is starting to lose its patients related to the emerging world from my perspective I think the actions from the ECB and lower oil prices overall I look at it as a great opportunity to be in the emerging world and I actually believe where interest rates are now in Brazil it's a great investment opportunity too so with that framework Joaquim give us your perspective of from Brazil of Brazil's position but also of the entire emerging world and how that's going to play out well thank you good afternoon Brazil in some ways comes up from a very different direction we have had a lot of job creation in the last few years several million positions we have now one of the lowest unemployment rates in our history actually the lowest incomes I have been rising in the last year there's been a lot of inclusion so our experience is somewhat different but to some extent this process starts to slow down in the last couple of years in part because of the changes in commodity prices that changes in the whole emerging markets and we decide to to change actually you had an election last year change was one of the most talked about words and we we decide the government the president decides that the beginning of this year to take some actions and these actions basically aim at reinforcing investment we we for some time our growth was much based on consumption but we are shifting a little bit of the demand towards investment now to get investment go going as we heard you need confidence you need less uncertainty so we're taking some measures to ensure that confidence in the economy increases because last year we had a decline a quite important decline in investment in part because there was election there was some uncertainty so now we're trying to take this out the main biggest factor for the slowdown of the economy last year was decline in investment now what it takes to to get investment coming back like I said you have to build confidence now the the tools that you are planning to use that you have already start to use are very traditional tools we are strengthening our fiscal so our primary surplus we decide to have a primary surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP this year is a significant increase more than 1 percent of GDP increase and next year we raise a little bit more we are also getting prices realigned this could be called a sort of structural reform so in areas like energy and other areas you get price signals that are very important for investment decisions we are working on that too even the regulatory framework in some cases we are attentive why because we we need not only investment saved by companies and machinery but also infrastructure and with the private sector and we know that for that to happen and to have quickly we need to have really a framework that provides full confidence now Brazil has a good track record on concessions PPP and so on so we we are confident that you can get this moving and this is very important because this is what we allow us to continue the path of improving education skills like I said we created several million jobs we have population that's relatively young and they are now getting more skilled more people in college doubling the population college so we can have demand but perhaps with a different composition the composition that helps us to increase our potential growth of course this has a component of structural reform and it basically ensuring that it's easier to do business in Brazil that is easier even to pay taxes in Brazil there are lots to be done in these areas and we believe that if you act fast enough we're going to have the response in Brazil Lawrence often when you have these shifts the the economy the enterprise the company the workers they react very quickly is a perhaps we're not as flexible as the United States maybe you are in between Europe and the United States but it's an economy that is very agile that that responds and I would say that a number of emerging markets are also like this some of our neighbors in Latin America also are nimble and they are moving and I think that the benefit of lower energy prices will make this transition probably easier for many of us for Brazil although you are a large producer of oil on balance I think that the decline in oil price you not hurt us that much it will actually be positive so I think this is the kind of action that countries like like us have to take to ensure that in this world that continues to change we we move ahead on the productivity ladder on the on the technology and for that private sector is fundamental and to get the private sector you have to have the right environment so I let me just ask one question before you go there minute okay I hear what you're saying is you're gonna you expect better GDP from your country and other emerging countries because of the oil situation I think for several them yes in some countries of course I mean like you said emerging markets is a very different bag okay there are some that are producers but even in some of them I take our let's call it neighbors Mexico okay they are producers these will reduce some of their revenues but because they are also doing a structural reforms well it may hurt a little bit but you move forward and that's the important thing and Larry I disagree with you although I understand it's very risky to disagree with the moderator and when you say the market disappointing about emerging market you can disagree yes emerging market growth is on downside in the past a few years we observe 92% almost all the emerging market growth has been down continuously in the past few years my point may continue to a little bit of a lower in the next few years but that's because technical reason because they have a different building cycle they are in the maturing cycle they have a very high strong growth in the 2009 2010 and they are gradually coming down some country have a missing investments some country have overheated credit bubble they have to adjust so I think that they are gradually slowed down adjust themselves this is the process but in the past 20 years emerging market really built a very strong fundamentals that's built a base for them to move forward now the key issue is there's a big structure change within the emerging market and between emerging market and advanced economy globally it's very interesting between 1990 to 2010 in 20 years advanced economy consuming into the share of GDP increased from 75 to 80 percent now it's the economy where you have a C increased 5% what do you do your investment drop 5% right you have to have a number add up that's okay the really thing happened in the emerging market where advanced economy consumes increased 5 percentage point emerging market reduce their consumers in 6% of point increase that investment 7% of point we're living such interconnected the world everything have to mirror to each other now that's the point the point is we start to see the advanced economy consuming gradually slowed down a little bit of investment they have to pick up and emerging market is the read adjust themselves reduced investments increase in the the consumption there will be bigger big global read adjustments right I'm not sure what level they will be able to go back but I'm pretty much sure those of them will go back I think that's very important global reshuffling reshifting restructuring I think the policy maker have to pay attention on this issue the second point before I finish to give you another 30 seconds is the emerging market is a very big chunk of a global economy now the account of 50 percent more global GDP 60 percent of global investments contribute more than 60 and 70 percent global growth now but they're still have a very low per capita GDP they're only in average have a 22 percent of for us per capita GDP that means long way to catch up as it means a great gross potential I will say after 100 years when we come back to this podium to have this meeting again I'm sure we'll be able to lift 150 colossus here maybe you're older than us but I'm sure you will be there I think we probably will not remember this financial crisis because this is just the one financial crisis we experienced in the past few hundred years but people will remember this is the year emerging market take half of the global GDP so I was just going to say Crota son it sounds like you're right everybody's bullish everybody's bullish just a comment like I mentioned emerging markets really brought the nomination so among of our countries there are some that have a say the investment to GDP ratio above 30 percent and others have below 20 percent so some of the things that are absolutely necessary for some perhaps reducing investment you may even have the contrary to in others I sometimes joke that for instance compare with China we have done some of these yin and yang and you have now to turn it around so it's important for Brazil to increase investment and I see that China maybe others are in the direction of really getting the fruits of the of growth and development more to the consumer and that's also healthy Mark extremely very important point the last point there about the transition that's going on in China unless we forget the scale of the readjustment there and and make a broader point there's a series of transitions that are underway and and some of them will may come to a point this year so I think it's it's valuable to sit back within an overall posture of being cautiously optimistic about the outlook is where I would put myself three and a half percent that's it that if the IMF's right about global growth that's a good outcome the these transitions in emerging markets towards more domestic demand I mean Brazil's there but China that this is hugely important secondly the potential transition of some advanced economy monetary policy in the divergence greater divergence in advanced economy monetary policy will bring likely if it happens likely a benign in other words a benign increase in volatility and will test capital flows across the global economy including to emerging markets as well and will test the new financial system and the resilience of that new financial system so we should be we should be conscious of that because it's it starts with a positive but has a potential feedback and we have to be aware of that on top of that I think the energy market adjustment we've all observed the the dividend from oil it's realistic to expect it doesn't mean it will happen that oil is lower for longer given where cash costs actually are in a series you know across the globe and given where demand is likely to be so that creates an opportunity that is considerable and perhaps undervalued in terms of the outlook for the global economy and lastly if I can bring it back towards Europe for a second there's a transition from everything being about monetary policy to be everything being about structural policy and I would include in structural policy completing the project of a sustainable monetary union just parenthetically in the UK transition from household driven growth towards more investment driven growth as well in the context of a rising global economy two point one on China I really think that the Chinese economy is making huge structural change people may be more interested in gradual slowdown of economic growth but still China is growing by seven and a half percent and even if slightly slow down slowing down this year next year but still around seven percent growth that is very respectable rate of growth but more important is Chinese economic structures changing it is not any more export dependent economy it's more domestic demand oriented economy and not just investment but also consumption is increasing and even in China consumption basket consists of not only goods but large part of services and services do not need so many so much input of materials or those kind of things so that Chinese are going to gradually slowing down but China's import of materials commodities as well as intermediate goods is declining quite significantly that makes the supply chain matrix in China centering China I think it's changing this is a big structural change and it is it is good for China it is good for Asia and supposedly good for the world I need to move the discussion because we've been doing this like yeah 50 minutes I don't know if I heard the word us yet you know a minor colony so with that mark we'll have it back yeah so from all of your perspective when you think about your monetary policy your your your actions in in in Brazil the ECB's monetary policy in the bank of the bank of England and from the IMF what are your predictions of the US I mean you had to make these decisions based on that fundamental I believe I missed the second point second point just I say that the Japanese economy is likely to grow around 2% in fiscal 2015 it's not calendar year so IMFWO is based on calendar year which is a bit too pessimistic but the the difference is not so bad not so big but anyway in fiscal 2015 we expect the Japanese economy will grow around 2% now the US economy I am extremely optimistic because the the the growth is so robust not only in consumption but also investment and and also export so I think the US economy is currently of course leading the global economic growth and the the economic growth in US is much more broad broad we base than before so I have full confidence in the US economic growth well I don't have a prediction for the US it's difficult difficult enough to predict for oneself so I'm not doing that but for sure the US economy will be strong for sure it will be stronger than the eurozone economy and our priority in that environment is that we want to be sure that the financial environment will remain fit in Europe to the European economy in the US to the US economy and for that disconnect to happen we need well functioning international capital markets which brings me back to Mark's remark that the system is untested to some extent we had a wave of new financial regulation which by and large has focused mostly on banks so we're pretty sure that now banks are much safer as in as financial institutions we're less sure that financial markets capital markets are safer so that will be the priority of the of the regulatory community we want to be sure that international capital markets work and for that we need a inadequate degree of coordination so we need to fight the temptation of ring fencing financial protectionism and that temptation is very often at home it's in our heads yeah I agree with these observations as Mark mentioned we we may see some dislocations as a consequence of the the current trends the US growing it's good it's good for Brazil it's good I'm sure for several countries because of demand it creates and so on so forth but especially a country open like Brazil to capital flows we will be very watchful and I think coordination will be very important we are also strengthening our own situation and when we strain fiscal and so on so forth it give us an additional layer of protection if there is any dislocation and capital markets but it's something that you have to to watch very carefully and coordinate if something happens and not the least because the lower level of liquidity in so many markets bond markets and so on Mark let me just I'll reinforce what my colleagues just said on that point I'll make two others first is as I think many are aware there's there's a big difference between the the path of monetary policy implied by the Fed through the the famous dot plots and that implied in the market and that gap will have that gap will close somewhat this year and the question is in what direction will it close and what impact that will have on on volatility if that reinforces the importance of investors and more importantly people in the real economy businesses households understanding the objectives of a central bank and how will react to certain circumstances and I think the clarity of the feds mandate the clarity the ECBs and very much the clarity of the Bank of England's mandate if I just say one word on the UK which is that we have a very low inflation environment right now largely caused by commodity prices we have an ability to look through that and we have a responsibility we have the means and the will and the response and we will do it we will return inflation back to target within the two-year horizon so people can rely on that now the second point I wanted to make on the US and I'll hand back to you which is around the labor market and the question which is there is yet unresolved about the impact of technology on wages and potential dynamics that has for the Phillips curve and therefore directly for monetary policy and this is this is a fluid situation and if in any labor market this is most relevant would be most relevant would be in the most flexible labor markets which would include very much the US but also potentially the UK just again parenthetically on the UK it is not lost on us that wages are picking up now in the most recent data consistent with our expectations US side may also have two points I follow my I think I agree yes we have a strong growth this year and 3.4 with forecast it's a very strong question but if you're looking for if we decompose the growth if you're looking for the growth is very much driven by private consumption right and also a little bit of government expenditure as well investments are still weak you compare today with 2007 in terms of a percent of GDP US lost 2% of GDP of investments so putting us on a long-term sustainable growth I think US also need investment when copper shading sit on the big part of that the second issue is the risk in financial market as Mark mentioned really start to accumulate now I mean the illusion of liquidity Mark just referred to I think and moving from banking to the shadow banking sector Larry you may disagree with me but the if you're looking for the number the credit from banking sector to the copper sector in the past seven years drop really 300 billion dollars from on the the shadow banking sector increase of 1.4 trillion dollars so you will see the the credit intermediation really moving away from traditional commercial banking to the shadow banking sectors but that's not bad yeah exactly okay I'm not saying good or bad okay I know you would disagree but I'm glad you know I didn't I'm not disagree I'm not defending myself I'm going to move on for a second because I don't want to talk about no it's not a bit I agree but I think that's a potential risk we need in hands of regulatory efforts and supervision as well as Mark mentioned so let me move on I want to take up a point that Mark brought up and I think it has great implications for the development the developing world and Mark brought up technology and obviously technology is a major component in the future of technology for the world economic forum and when we frame out 2014 and how that's translating into 15 in my mind it was technology that transformed the energy market it was technology that created the 1.6 million X's barrels at a time when global demand was was growing much lower than it was a few years back and so we had this structural imbalance of supply and demand and now in a period of equilibrium and the smartest brains in the world and everybody know no one predicted what technology was doing we witnessed it but we didn't understand the implications but technology is beginning to change most industries we live in you know the digital world is changing so many things the sharing economy we're accustomed to sharing music very few people buy music today they they use you buy me too but we're old just to be marked we don't count let's my kids really make fun of me that I still buy CDs so let's move on on that point and then we now we are migrating towards cloud and everyone's talking about the cloud we're reducing the need to buy these big hard drives by having that we have uber now the sharing economy of automobiles you know patterns are changing behaviors are changing most of these patterns and behaviors have shown to be disinflationary I'm not saying they will always be there but it's also changing the job creation and so as bankers as finance ministers a IMF how do you think about technology when you think about policy because technology in my mind is underappreciated by at least by politicians as to how that's transforming their societies and I do believe technology is going to be very disruptive in the developing world because technology you're seeing technology transformations in China right now they're using more robotics we're seeing technology transformation in agriculture because of the combines and we don't need that many humans now to pick so many agricultural products this is going to be disruptive in so many places and it's it's it's going to be those countries that adapt to technology are going to be the winners and those who can't adapt are in my mind are going to fall farther so big winners big losers how do you think about that in monetary policy first in a lot of governmental policies since we have three governors in the center mark well I think there's three ways first in terms of financial stability policy and the change in banking that is imminent we have to get the balance of regulation right not come down too hard and prevent this this type of disruptive technology but also not be in a position where we're filling in prudential regulation after the fact and then have a difficulty in other words facing an uber type situation in financial services which you know many jurisdictions are struggling with secondly on monetary policy we have the classic thing of adjusting cpi for for true you know true value but this goes to the labor market i'll finish with this and it's an imperfect analogy but you think about the sharing economy and the classic thing of the the vehicle in i think of the states is only used about five percent of the time and so this is tremendous opportunity to share vehicles and it's an efficiency and it lowers actual investment and purchases but it's it's more efficient for the economy think about labor we have a very high share in the uk is similarly high share in the us of involuntary part-time workers and you also have a phenomena and it's hard to measure this precisely of disaggregating services you know it so outside having contractors outside of the company contractors that work to specific tasks aren't necessarily working full-time and so there is a sharing element there that's not being and so we as as monetary authorities we have to take an assessment of how much extra slack is in the labor market because of this phenomena and that's trying to make a judgment in terms of shorter term cyclical monetary policy in the face of a broader secular trend so these are very difficult judgments to make no i fully i fully agree with mark and i uh thinking about trying to reflect on your question but you don't buy cd's so you don't buy cd's i do buy cd's i do buy cd's i don't buy venal but i do buy cd's yes um there are certainly many ways in which in which technology will will reshape monetary policy as it reshapes our daily lives and these whole question is uh how how can it be reshaped in a way uh that it's not disrupted uh because we uh we we need monetary policy to to provide confidence um and apart from what uh mark said uh it's pretty obvious that the that technology uh is reshaping the financial industry i mean you've been discussing that uh here uh since uh since the uh the forum started uh it reshapes payment systems uh which are uh essential for monetary policy which are really the nuts and bolts of what we what we're doing uh so we're following very closely uh virtual currencies for instance we're following very closely uh the cyber resilience of financial infrastructures this is essential uh for the the smooth uh transmission of what we're doing um it it certainly reshapes the economy and mark has uh uh commented it uh simple issues such as uh where is the philips curve in the eurozone well i don't even know and it may it might become even even uh even less clear uh as uh depending on the assumptions you make on productivity and on the impact of technology uh and this is crucial also to our monetary policy uh making it may change our instruments um if you think of an issue such as negative rates we've been experimenting with negative rates and uh people outside such as well ken rogoff and others have suggested that negative rates might become less of an issue if money migrates to uh to electronic money because the uh the effect but if we if we have more consistent longer negative rates should we all go into linen business and buy pillows and you know is that the next new business you know what i would like to see is uh is the uh the natural rate of interest going up and that's also about technology and then we uh we don't have to face that question and finally and that's maybe the most uh intriguing intriguing question for me uh technology can reshape politics and we're not doing politics but a stable currency uh requires a community of interest a commonality of interest especially in such a diverse region such as the such as the eurozone and social networks uh technology have the potential to to reshape uh interest groups to reshape politics uh in a way that kind of an impact on my type policy yes i i think we have to differentiate uh uh digital technology or uh information and communication technology from uh larger area of new technologies as far as the financial sector is concerned and also central bank as the the host of uh payment and settlement system digital technology is quite vital and quite uh important and decisive factor i agree but as far as the the real economy as a whole uh is concerned i think uh uh robotics or or biotechnology and so and so forth those new technologies various new technologies could affect the entire economy in a very uh significant way and so as a central banker we tend to focus primarily on digital technology payment and settlement system financial sector financial market but i think we should uh broaden our uh our uh view our way of thinking towards uh greater areas of new technology okay well i think that uh for emerging markets uh technology may have at least in the the short period in the medium term a different impact than in developed countries uh sometimes it's good to be a late commerce uh Claudio Sanchez mentioned uh payment system the brazil did an overhaul of the payment system in the the late 90s early 2000 we've got a very robust modern uh nimble system um technology for instance uh in brazil now is playing roles such as uh i mentioned we we have grown quite a lot the number of uh students in colleges now the ability to have uh courses uh through uh media instead just 19 centers or 18th century technology of classrooms and so on is a major factor and not the least because you take a generation to train teachers to have to double triple the number of people in college so if you can use in a smart way this means you have a tremendous impact on the life of many people you you make so many things affordable that were not affordable uh before also i think that in some ways um because uh actually even because of income inequality you have a larger grouper at the bottom let's call it a pyramid from that in middle and the middle is the one that is now filling the brunt of the change in technology information so they may lose a little bit but the gain uh at the base is so big that overall for the country is fantastic i mean you can use uh cellular phones i mean for very little price uh you mentioned for instance in the field but the guy in the fields now can know about the weather he can know about the prices can know about everything even fix the the tractor if if necessary just with a small small thing so you get access to so many things and that for the majority of the population that it really has an impact that you're expanding your uh production frontier and the the thing we have to do and again the role of the private sector together with the good regulation is fundamental so that you have a rapid dissemination of this technology and make them accessible uh to to as many people as possible yeah i uh i think technology i agree with you will have a destructive impact on the emerging market as well i think it's a huge challenge but it's a huge opportunity net to net it's good news let me see why it's good news the asian traditional development model is the japan take of learn things from america us you know us and europe and takeover then transfer them into the sauce career sauce career transfer to the we call the four asian tigers then china take over now with technology today i don't think india want to take things from china vietnam takes something from china but i will see they will jump into the front directly so all the emerging market china india vietnam and all the other countries would jump to take the technology to jump to the frontier the whole thing is all the advanced economy more or less within the production frontier right if you go back to economy one one again so the other frontiers you need to push forward and the emerging market is within the area want to go to the frontier today with the technology they can jump to the frontier and even they can move further if you look about alibaba that's the real case 500 million people have a smartphone in china i think that's a huge opportunity for them but technology chart actually imposes a huge question on global global governance issues it's not all clear whether it's the enhanced the global governance or it's on the other way around it's not all clear yet we may put them into the more suitable multi functions non-state fracture will play more roles and how do we work together with modern technologies i think that's a big challenger we have to seriously to face it well i want to apologize to the audience we're not going to have time for questions so i'm going to ask anybody would anybody want to wrap up anything any final comments uh mark it looks like you have one well let me just take the last thing min said um there's been a lot of discussion of over the past year of secular stagnation and their and and negative real interest rates the natural rate is negative and there's a variety of reasons why that has been the case in some major jurisdictions it was the case in the u.s arguably was the case in the uk that's why qe made sense arguably is the case in japan and uh europe which is why qe makes sense because it's bringing monetary policy to that natural rate so it is appropriately accommodated there are a variety of reasons for that savings investments in balance etc one of the reasons that's advanced for that is a is technology pessimism now i would reject that for two reasons i actually more of a technology optimist it's hard to be at the forum and listen to all the advances that are out we're on the cusp on and not be a technology optimist but more fundamentally for min's point is that the vast majority of the world the uk included is not at the frontier they are less productive than the frontier so even if nothing else is invented for the next 20 years just catching up is a huge growth in in in it's a huge opportunity to do you think it can lead to more disinflation it depends it depends on the stance of policy and it depends also a monetary policy but also yes yes it has a disinflationary impact first point it depends on the stance of monetary policy and relatedly structural policies so that people can adjust because in this new technology world particularly in labor markets you're going to need more creativity you're going to need mass creativity and that's and this is a truism but it is true uh you need lifelong learning you need training you need all these elements that are going to allow people to take full advantage and that will take time sorry benoit benoit for you got 30 seconds and corona sun and then we gotta wrap it i would just i would just urge all all those in europe who worry about the impact of monetary policy on savers and they are they are some um to listen to mark uh the answer is about the rate of return on capital the answer is about the innovative capacity of europe and the answer is about the ability of our capital markets to reallocate resources uh to increase the rate of return of capital and might i policy is just the canary in the coal mine for the sun i i don't say that uh inflation is any and any time a monetary phenomenon i don't think so because inflation rate could be could be affected by many factors i mean technology uh emerging market uh uh participating in the global uh transactions uh anything i mean at this moment 50 percent uh reduction of oil prices affecting uh inflation rate globally but central bank uh monetary policy can counteract this this this inflationary or inflationary pressures through appropriate monetary policy thank you very much for giving me 25 seconds because i will feel very uncomfortable this is this podium without talking anything about low income country because the low income country has a very strong growth in the past 20 years this year they are facing a lot of headwinds because the weak external growth weak trade growth oil price drops it's very important for them and the monetary policy divergence costs interest rates and uh and and exchange exchange rates and and the current market volatility but we believe with 20 years hard work they build a good macro foundation to work further but the whole world needs support to help them this year it's particularly important for development because we'll have post the 2015 uh mdg to sdg we'll have for financing development in sobia in july we'll have a climate change so i will say we request all the policy makers put development policy on the top of their agenda thank you very much ladies and gentlemen thank you very much panel thank you


కానికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికికిక Where else can I take this country apart from where it is now? This is a country where you could go to the police and report a case and you expect the police to react. Today the police do not even know what to do because they have to wait for an instruction from someone. If you go to court today, people like me would actually be laughed at by the public. You have been going to the court because they know that the court unfairly. That's how much our institutions have been damaged economically. You know where we are. If President Lungu loves this country even by 0.0001%, I think he should just say, Okay guys, I can't stand. I can't stand. It's only if he hates this country that much that he would want to go to Fidira Monsenga. Wherever we go to Fidira Monsenga. But I think Zambia as a country has workers that it even fails to pay on time. But the workers of PF cadres, workers of PF ministers, workers of PF members of parliament, PF staff get paid every other time. If you walk around, you see the people that are working as teachers. You see how they are living. And see how people are working as friends of the party. And see how they are living. You find that the people that are working for the government are poorer than the people that are working for the party, for the PF. If he loves this country, I think he should just say, I'm not going to stand. I'm not going to stand. P'lato, others from within the PF don't argue with you. They don't usually argue, they beat. Well, they'll argue again with you. They don't argue, Andrew, they beat. They beat, okay. Well, don't say that look, we've worked on most of the fundamentals. Which are? Right, we've worked on the health care system. We've built a lot of hospitals. By supplying expired drugs. We've built schools before the PF came in. Where are we building those schools? How many desks are in those schools? What is happening in those schools? We've got more than five universities from the time that the PF came into power. But we failed to maintain the University of Zambia where we are sending our people. The only un-presidented development in our country is the dollar selling at twenty-one koacha. And we have scandals every month. And all that is un-presidented. And all that is un-presidented is that Because Because I just I'm sure you came driving properly here. We didn't have Ngaunguanyaroud here, it's been expanded and all that. The fly over bridges, don't you think that I wish I was that simple. I wish I was that simple. I've been to a number of countries, even in countries where there are no governments, but they have roads.  If you go to, wherever you go to Afghanistan, you find roads. So you can't tell me that giving me a road in a country like us, giving a road is a miracle. If the only thing you're going to tell me that you've done for me is giving me a road, I'll ask you whose car is driving there.  You just need a road. Whilst we do love the roads, we want the roads. What I'll tell you is, if these roads are conduits for corruption, if you're going to use these roads to steal from me, don't expect me to be blindfolded by a road that you bring in my yard so that you can steal from me and say, Oh, Andrew, when I know that you use that road to steal, I'm not going to dance for that. How do they use the roads to steal? You and I know, but maybe it's not safe to say now. We know. We know. We know. Andrew, you do know. I know and you do know. Yes, we do.


In this presentation, we will take a look at multiple choice questions related to special journals. First question, a sales return for credit on account would be recorded in the a, sales journal, b, general journal, c, cash receipts journal, d, direct posting journal, e, cash disbursements journal. So once again, we will read through these and see if we can eliminate some of the transactions or some of the answers with the process of elimination. A sales return for credit on account would be recorded in the a, sales journal. Now the sales journal would be what we use to record the sale and it's a very specific journal. It's only going to be sales. It's going to have like a debit to sales and a credit to the account, a debit to accounts receivable and a credit to sales. And then if we're on a perpetual inventory system, a debit to the cost of goods sold and a credit to inventory. Very specific. It's not going to be there for the sales return because then we would have to reverse all that and we would so and the columns aren't set up to do that. So it can't be the sales journal wouldn't be able to do that. And then B says the general journal. Now that's what we use when we don't have special when we can't find a special journal to record this. So if we can't find a special journal, we will default to or fall back on the use of the general journal, which would just be to record debits and credits for this transaction. C, the cash receipts journal. Now if we had a sales return for credit, if we think about that journal entry, you know, if we made a sale, the best way to think about this journal tree is to is to say what would happen if we made a sale and then reverse it. If we made a sale, we would debit the accounts receivable on account, we would credit the sales revenue. And then we would debit the cost of goods sold. And we would credit the inventory. Okay. So if we were to reverse that, then we would have to say that we had a sales return, now we wouldn't debit sales, we would call it sales return, that we would debit, and then we would credit accounts receivable. If the sale was returned, we would debit inventory because the inventory came back in. And then we would credit costs of goods sold. And that sounds very sloppy to write with a mouse like this, but but that's basically what we'd be doing now. There's no cash involved here. So it can't be going to the cash receipts journal to the point of all that. And then D, we have the direct posting journal. And I mean, I'm not sure that's a thing. So I'll keep it for now. But I'm not sure if that's really a thing. And then E says cash disbursements journal. And once again, there's no cash in this journal entry. So it can't go to the either of the cash journals. So we're left with either B or D. So once again, if we read through this, we say a sales return for credit on account would be recorded in the either be general journal, which is kind of like the default journal, or D the direct posting journal. So really, the question here is, you know, the direct posting journal, is that really a thing? Because if it's and if it is, would this journal with this transaction go to it? And I don't think it's a thing. So I think that's not really real. And therefore, it would have to default to the general journal, we would just make a normal journal entry for this, as if we were not using special journals here, because this transaction doesn't fit neatly into one. So let's read it one more time. A sales return for credit on account would be recorded in the be general journal. Next question, the posting of the sales journal at the end of the period includes a, A debit to sales and credit to accounts receivable, B debit to accounts receivable and credit to cash, C debit to cash and credit to accounts receivable, D debit to accounts receivable and credit to and credit sales, and E debit to cash and credit to sales. One more time, we'll read through this and see if we can eliminate some lawsuits with the process of elimination. The posting of the sales journals at the end of the period includes a. So we're gonna we're talking about we want to think through this a little bit before we go through here because if we just read debits and credits will get turned around all all over the place if we don't have some idea before as we go into this. So the posting of the sales journal here at the end of the period. So we're really looking for the normal journal entry for the sales journal. Now the sales journal is a really specific journal. We only post things to the sales journal when we make a sale on account and that means that we are going to debit accounts receivable and credit sales. So this is one of those types of questions where you really want to think this through before reading it for a couple reasons. One if you read through this it doesn't you can't see the debits and credits formatted as debits and credits and to me that throws me off I'm just reading words and it doesn't look like a debit in a credit format so it kind of throws me off in two. If you just read debits and credits like debit this credit that without first thinking of what you think it should be then I think that's just you're just gonna confuse yourself I think that's gonna be confused. So I would write it out and try to say hey what do I think it should be first and then go through here and see if we can verify this. So we're gonna say A debit sales and credit to accounts receivable. Now see this is one that's meant to turn us around because we don't debit sales sales as a revenue account only goes up in the credit direction we credit sales so I'm gonna eliminate that one. B says debit accounts receivable and credit to cash and that would mean that doesn't really happen typically accounts receivable goes up and oh no yeah we got paid that's when we got paid on account so anyways not part of the sales journal because that's would be after the sale happened and it wouldn't be the actual sale then C says debit to cash and credit to accounts receivable and again cash is involved here we don't record cash in the sales journal only things dealing with sales on account so it's not going to be that D says debit accounts receivable and credit sales that looks like what we've guessed here so I think that's going to be it but let's read the last one D says debit cash and credit to sales now this one's a tricky one too because it does say that we're crediting sales that makes sense and we could make a sale for cash and debit cash however it wouldn't go in the sales journal it would go into the into the cash receipts journal because we got cash so these two it probably could eliminate down to these two and then say will be D is actually the correct answer because cash is not involved in the sales journal so final answer the posting of the sales journal at the end of the period includes a D debit to accounts receivable and credit to sales next one the primary difference in the sales journal for the perpetual and periodic inventory systems is a only the perpetual system has a column to record cost of goods sold be sales tax receivable column is used under the perpetual system but not the periodic see the sales tax payable column is used under the perpetual system but not the periodic D only the perpetual system uses receivable column E perpetual the perpetual system has a cash column okay let's read through this one more time see if we can eliminate some of these very long responses here the primary difference in the sales journal for the perpetual and periodic inventory system is so before we go through it let's try to think this through a bit here we're looking for a difference in the sales journal now the sales journals that journal we make when we make sales on account so that's typically something where we have like accounts receivable going up and sales or revenue being the other side so we're talking about that journal very specific type of transaction that includes this transaction now a perpetual and a periodic inventory system has to do with inventory which would be the other side of this transaction meaning when we make a sale on account it's debiting costs of goods sold and inventory so the so that's going to be the question under under a perpetual system we record this second piece as we go each time we make a sale under a periodic system we're going to do a physical count and rely on that physical count to record the cost of goods sold and inventory periodically at the end of the system so you would think that this piece of the transaction would be the difference for a sales journal type of journal for for this information so let's go through this a only the perpetual system has a column to record cost of goods sold and that it's kind of true because that's deals with this now it says only cost to get sold it should be cost to get sold and inventory so that looks correct but maybe it's not totally correct because it doesn't have the rest of it so I'd read through the rest of them see if there's a better answer that would be more complete if not I think that might be it be sales tax receivable column is used under the perpetual system but not the periodic now I the sales tax whatever system we use for sales tax would have to be included in either system because we would still be recording the sales tax in this in the similar way under the perpetual periodic so I don't think that's it see the sales tax payable is used under the perpetual system but not the periodic again it's that the problem between the two is really on the cost to get sold and inventory side not on the sales and receivable side so I don't think it's dealing with sales tax D only the perpetual system system uses a receivable column that that's not true because it's really on this side the cost to get sold and inventory were concentrated on for any kind of problem both of them will be debiting accounts receivable and crediting sales and e perpetual system has a cash column and the sales journal doesn't have a cash column doesn't matter what system we're using if cash is received then we would be dealing with the cash receipts journal so it can't be that so I think a is the most proper answer let's read it one more time the primary difference in the sales journal for the perpetual and periodic inventory systems is a only the perpetual system has a column to record cost of goods sold