Meanwhile, China's foreign minister Wang Yu today urged the Pacific region not to be too anxious about his country's aims. This was after a meeting at Fiji with his counterpart from 10 island nations was unable to agree to a sweeping trade and security comedic. Wang hosted the meeting with foreign ministers from Pacific Island nations, with diplomatic ties with China midway through a diplomatic tour of the region. It is where Beijing's ambition for wider security ties is of course concerned among U.S. allies. A draft comedic and five-year action plan was sent by China to the invited nations ahead of the meeting show China was seeking a sweeping regional trade and security agreement.


is a presentation of T-F-N-N. Trade, what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good. Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. Okay, we're going to take a look at these markets. They're getting hit pretty hard.  We basically felt that we're probably going to get some type of a correction in here, whether it's a high or low. Well, certainly not a high coming in here, but we broken down against some support. The market's still down, doing very little right now. We just made a 3-8-2 retracement in the S&P 500. And if it gets much above 503, we could have a pretty good rally. Maybe towards the end of the day. We'll have to wait and see. The one that I posted today, folks, is the Treasury bond. We've been bullish on that for the past six days. And as you can see, we completed a beautiful ABCD pattern up today at the 1-23 level. The high was 1-2304. We're now trading about 10 ticks below that. So that is an ABCD at a 3-8-2 in a bear market. So if that's going to be the case, interest rates should start to go higher again. Remember, this is just an hourly chart so that it does take time to form. And the patterns that line up work on an hourly chart, 15-minute chart, you know, 10-minute chart doesn't make any difference. Okay, our guest today will be Grace Morris of Astro Economics. Tomorrow we have Shane Smollion, thewolftrader.com. Hold on one second here. I hear the beepers going off and I can't find out where it is, so bear with me here. I have to see, oh, it's in the soybean market. It's had a pretty good rally today. Not unexpected, but we'll see what's going on here with that a little bit later. I turned off the thing, so it's okay. Folks, I've had over the past two days, I've had a breakdown in my email service from Google. I don't know what I did wrong, but they said I did something wrong and I had to get someone a professional to come in and do the work and finally I'm able to send out the charts and the emails and stuff and I'll be able to receive. I haven't received hardly any emails over the last couple days and that was mainly because the system was shut down. And of course, as most of you know me, when you see this technical stuff, that's when I pulled a few strands of hair that I have left because it just drives me up the wall and had to pay a premium price to get it done, but supposedly it's gonna be done correctly. I posted that chart of that Treasury bond because I think it's a very important chart, mainly because it's the first major ABCD that we've had in the past 10 days. I know it seems hard to believe, but that's exactly what's happened. So that's pretty much it. So I hope you pay attention to that when it may or may not mean anything. It's still up a full handle on the day. So that tells you that it's very, very bullish. Okay, now I wanted to bring to your attention something, you know, we talk about strong trending markets and the stuff like that here on the air at TFNN. So what I'm going to do now is I'm going to post a very short term, just a three minute chart of the Dow Jones. Ah, let's try it again, Larry. It is the E-mini S&P. I just wanted to show you that these are tradable patterns, folks. You can see the first one is right here. There's your 382 retracement right there with an ABCD. There's your second one right there, ABCD. Then, of course, these went down into new low ground. And remember, when you're trading this, you don't go start looking at a weekly or daily chart. You trade it off a two minute chart. So when it goes down and makes an ABCD, like we did down there at the 480, then that's what you have to do. So that's what we're trying to, you know, get across to you as we're looking at this through the day. But we've been very bearish on stocks and very bullish on bonds, slightly bearish on gold. It's been pretty good. We covered our short gold yesterday, a little too early as usual. And then we're also looking for a point to go along the wheat. It's up today, but it didn't get to our buy point. Nor did it come down far enough in the corn to get the buy point. So those are the things that we're really watching today. We also have a potential here for a pretty good bottom here in the Euro. I haven't trekked. Let me try words. Okay, folks, just give me a second here so I can pull up the Euro chart. I spent so much time with this... Where is the Euro? Yeah, it held up okay, but it hasn't really moved very much, but that's what we're paying attention to here so far this morning. Okay, now let's move over one handle and let's talk just a little bit about the psychology of getting ready to trade. I'm in the process of doing a video for Dr. David Paul for a service that Tom's going to have for all of his customers, and I'm going to be doing a little video telling my experience with David. He was a stand-up guy, folks, 68 years old, healthy as a horse, very frail, very... He looked like he was fragile, but he was bill-like steel, and he could do one of him push-ups and stuff like that, and I mean, it's just he was really incredibly fit. Went to the doctor on June 1st, and the doctor said, get your house in order. He won't be here in Thanksgiving Six weeks later, he passed away on the 19th of July, which happens to be my sister's birthday, so I'll remember that forever. But I love David. He was a great guy. Gosh, he was a big, big fan of Mark Douglas. I got to get them... I got them together when he came to U.S. once, and they had a really great day together, and they became friends after that. But, you know, his whole focus on that was about risk control. And he said, you know, you got to think very low risk, but you got to bet big and win big, and that's what he tried to do. And he certainly told Tom Hougart how to do that. When I first met Tom back in 2004, he was a good trader. He'd been working at City Index in London. He was our point man on CNBC every day. He'd have a 15-minute segment. And then after, oh, I think it was about six years, Michael Spencer decided to sell the company, and he gave Thomas a 18-month severance package. He didn't have to give him a month. He gave him 18 months. And with that 18 months, Tom became a professional trader, and we together caught that big move down in 2008, 2009. And we were on Zoom all the time, chatting back and forth through the night. And these were trades that were happening in the middle of the night, folks.  I'd buy in for a $10 tournament.  You had 15 seconds to react. And the beeper went off, so I would wake up to see what I had. And I actually won a little bit during that time, but we had a good run. And from that, he became the monster that he is. And folks, I mean monster. I've only met one other person that could do what he does. And as Robert St. John, he was the bond trader that worked with Tom Baldwin and also Charlie D. And with along with, you know, I met him all through Mark Douglas. So that's how it all came into back. But what Tom, his strategy is, when he sees that boy, look how much money I've made. He presses it. He presses more. And this is what David taught him to do. And it really pays him huge dividends. He just is, he knows how to do this. And I think that's why he does so well. So it's going to be really interesting to see how they have it outcomes. He's actually taking a little vacation this month, coming back in another week, I believe. And so we'll be chatting some more. We're planning on doing a seminar in Las Vegas, but not quite there yet because we lost one of our key players, David Paul. Hey, we'll take a break here.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive. He just hosted Forex Strategies and Fundamentals, What is Behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 Days Risk-Free Today. TFNN, educating investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors. All now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, we're back, folks, and I wanted to get on along. We've got a nice rally going here. We've actually come off the bottom in the S&P, about 20 handles, which is pretty good. We're going to see how that acts. We got crude oil almost unchanged on it. Well, it's actually up on the day now, after being down as much as $3, and of course, it's held up at that level relatively well, so we're going to be paying close attention to that. When we got on the show, sorry for my voice, folks, but I have a little bit of hoarseness that I can't get over, has nothing to do with the weather or anything like that. I think it has to do with analogy, but even then, we haven't had any rain for so long that I don't see how that could be bothering me either. The thing that I was trying to do when we were off the air here for just a second was to chat with Jerry Smores, because she's going to be our guest coming up here at 1.30, so that'll be really good. Okay, now let's get on with the other things that we want to be paying attention to here today.  The rest of the day, folks, was the largest update since June, and look what happened. Gave it all back in one day. Everybody that bought it on that day is now sitting with a loss most probably. So all I'm trying to tell you is that just be really careful in these markets because they are very volatile. Also, I want to mention that Eli Lillystock is up quite a bit. Those of you that belong to the 24-7 were able to get my message yesterday to buy it before the close, because one of my friends had given me some inside information that the earnings were going to be really good, plus they had a new drug. And if you believe any of that, folks, if you believe anything that I just said there, buy two shares of the Brooklyn Ridge, I never get anything like that. Can you imagine this is a $500 stock that's up 20% because they've got something that not only helps you lose weight, but it keeps your blood pressure low and reduces heart attacks. Now, boy, if that's not a lead pipe since for something really good, it'd be almost like discovering as a super Viagra if I never did figure out if those things worked or not. And thank goodness I didn't. Anyway, let's move on and talk just a little bit more about Eli Lilly. I have to bring this story to you because this was a big instrumental of why I'm a trader today, folks. I had a really good job with Lilly. I'd been with them for five years and I had worked my way up the ladder and I had done some things that got some things done that people couldn't get done basically because I worked hard and got lucky. And I was in a meeting and I was at a low level meeting. There were directors in there. So there are 10 of us in the room and I was there to help my boss who was giving information and we were going to be coming out with a product and we were working with the medical department and the marketing department. I was with the marketing department and they were arguing back and forth on what they could put in the ad and came around to me. They were supposed to give it. I just basically shut up because I didn't want to get into trouble and they came around to me and they asked me a question. What would you do? And I said, I don't know what I would do. I said, but I'll tell you this. I said, Colonel Eli Lilly started this company in 1865 with the start of civil war. If he were in this room, he'd fire all of us. He said, because this is not what he was all about. He said, you can't hide these bad things about the drug. He said, it's got some problems. Sure, we can tell them what they are, but we've got to, they have to know what those problems are. That was my last day at Lilly folks. The next day I was on my way back to California. They said, pick a place where you'd like to go. I said, I'll go to Los Angeles and so I went to Los Angeles.  I shouldn't have said anything, probably, but that's how I felt. And believe me folks, a lot of people heard about that and I was always glad that I did it because I really didn't like it. I'll tell you something else that was happening at that time. It's really relevant in now, but the pharmaceutical company, the association, I'm probably going to get in trouble for this. Maybe old Brian will fire me. I doubt it. Anyway, they were trying to get the pharmaceutical companies to go direct advertisement to TV to the patients. Tell the patients, yeah, this is what you need. Go tell your doctor. And everybody was against that. I mean, well, no, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Everybody was for it with the exception of Lilly. Lilly said, no, no, we're not going to do that. This is, they were going to let them go through the doctors. Then the patient will do it. The patient doesn't go to the doctor and tell them they want this medicine. Well, you can see what's in the medicine now. The medicine chest that you watch on TV every day. It's either Viagra, not Viagra, whatever these drugs are. I can't even remember. There's such a long ones, but they have movie stars in there and all that stuff. But that's how they did their advertising. And that was started back in 1971. And now from now day, here it is 40 some years later and it's 50 some years later. And it's a proven fact that it makes a lot of business, a lot of money for these folks. So I hope that gives you some idea of what we're looking at when we're watching some of these things here this morning. Hold on one second, folks. I have to, my limit minder just went off and I have to check to see where the, I'm going to sell crude oil in about 15 minutes, boys. So get your red, red, red, red, red, red, red, Robin had on because I'm going to, I'm going to give it a shot. It'll be my third shot for the day. One break, even one small loss. So I will give it a shot here somewhere above 80 to 50 if we get to that level here in the things. But the positions that we've had on today have been doing pretty good. We were short stocks, of course, and we've been short bonds from right near the high. And we were, we actually bought the Euro. It's holding up okay, hasn't really moved very much. And that's pretty much it. And we're waiting to be a seller in soybeans, but they're not quite there yet. They need to get up about another four or five cents. And then I'll be taking a look at those from the downside. So I hope that gave you some idea of what I'm doing here because these at markets are so active folks.  And it's night, middle of the night, you'll see monstrous swings because you've got these folks from Asia and the UK that are out there with big guns. And I will tell you this folks, I've been in this business for 62 years, started in 59. That would be like C 50, that's almost C 59. Wow, that's a lot. This would be my seventh decade. Are you kidding me? Anyway, I had never thought that I would see the fairness that you see with this electronic trading that you have folks. I watched a good friend of mine do some trading on Zoom the other day. He wanted to prove to me a fact. And he said, I can trade the S&P for a two point stop.  And it wasn't baloney. So I worked with him for about three hours one night, just scalping, you know, looking for five points here, five points here, five points there. And he could put something in and put a two point stop. They got him once or twice, but most of the time and his stops were filled. And he was doing a 40 lot. He was selling 40. That was like four of the old big contracts, but the new ones are 40. So he would do four of those or 40 of those and we get filled right on the spot. I mean, I couldn't believe it. I don't trade a 40 lot. You know, I wouldn't trade anything. That's no, I trade 160s. No, no, not really. I trade a pretty good, you know, I do all right. I make a nice living at this and that's really all I do. I don't expect to do anymore. I don't expect to do any less. And that's what I try to do one thing at a time. And that's really the bottom line of what I'm doing here, what I'm doing this stuff here for TfNN and then all for also for myself. Now we've got a break here coming up pretty soon with a Grace Morris coming up.  And we did some seminars during the 80s and God, we had a lot of fun and Bill Meridian and Arch Crawford and oh my God, it was just a, it was unbelievable. Dr. Al Larson, Norm Winsky, the whole gang was there. We're going to take a break and we're going to be back with Grace Morris of Astro Economics. The Gold Report. As a precious metal gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com. Educating Investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern or free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Okay, we're back folks and with a lot of pleasure and a great deal of anticipation, we have Grace Morris in the house. Grace, how are you doing today? Well, I thought Grace was in the house. I guess I'm wrong. We'll keep trying to get her, okay? Might be some technical difficulties. I'm the master of technical difficulties folks. I've had two days of absolute pulling the last hair of my head out and hopefully that'll be all fixed by today but that's been really difficult to try to get some of this stuff moving on here. But evidently Grace is having a hard time getting in but we'll see if we can. Folks, I was talking about the crude oil just a minute ago. I just wanted to show you, there's the number. You just hit the number that I wanted to see and that is at 80 to 40 and I'm only gonna risk a very small amount on that. So we're gonna find out if that's gonna be either a good one or a bad one but that's making a difference because sometimes it'll be good, sometimes it'll be bad. That's all you can do one at a time. Okay, let's move on here and since we have a little bit of technical difficulty here what we're going to do now is to, you know what I think I am gonna do here. I think a little bit concerned here that we didn't go down as far as we did in stocks today so we're gonna find out if that's gonna be any good or not. So we'll do one thing at a time as we go through looking at these. Hold on, folks, I'm doing two things. I'm trying to walk and shoot down at the same time but that's actually I'm trading at the same time. What I wanna do is to show you what I'm looking at so that you just realize and I'm not just throwing dice at this, okay? Now this is what I've been watching here. This is my, the AI program. Grace is in the house now, I think. Is that correct? I am. Hey, welcome, welcome, welcome. Good to have you back. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Hope you are too. I certainly am. Grace, the question, someone emailed because they knew you were coming on today. They would like to know your opinion of the overall market. Have we reached a major top or is just a corrective, a small correction? We are still a gung ho. This is a great quarter and all the indicators are very good. I think we have to remember that our inflation is coming down. China is now suffering deflation and other countries are dealing with much higher. There's so many economic indicators that we are so far ahead economically in the U.S. Even the trade deficits and so forth are really things that are going in our direction. So these temporary lifts, as I like to call them, are not to worry. Look at the major cycles and it looks good. Okay, that was the question that they had. And the second question we had from one of our listeners is when you get ready to buy a stock, they wanted to know how you use the birth chart and explain to the folks what a birth chart is and how you use it. Because I've seen you do this before but it's been a long time, so. Okay, my pleasure. First of all, I work with companies and you have to ascertain what the question is. If it's about the incorporation, I use the incorporation data from Delaware or wherever and set up a chart for the time they became legal in our functioning company. But in buying a stock in the kind of work I do in my stock market newsletter is use the first trade date and time. And accurate time is really important. And you can watch the ITOs become official on their first trade date. And that chart that I set up for that time is what I use and it's amazing. As I mentioned last time we talked that there's a secret formula which I would be very glad to share with you. If you have a chart and this was true of price line as it is with all of those stocks that go over $1,000 a share, they have the magic formula of a combination of Sun, Jupiter and Pluto. So if I'm looking at a bunch of charts on that day and then I use technical and fundamental analysis to choose them but if they've got that sort of edge just like price line which is now bookings holding and it had a perfect combination and when I put it in at I think it was 150 something it has gone over $3,000 last week. Oh my gosh. This works and this really applies to the Magnificent 7 which now replace the thing stacks. Wow, I know it's just amazing what's happened recently. I look at these prices and where we were back in 86, 87, 88, 89, we were doing these seminars. The S&P was trading like 215, 220, something like that and it's very, very, now it's a lot higher than that. It sure is. It's still an exciting place to be. Okay, we have a question. One other question and you can continue but the person would like to know what would be your best stock pick for the next two weeks? Do you have something in your little cover? I will tell you what I put in last week and also the week before or the newsletter goes by monthly issues but this is why I went in one direction while you were talking and since they are not in for a week or two like trading. I look at the whole cycle and this cycle we're in began in May a couple months ago and it's going to run another year so I'm looking at those that are going to grow in that period of time. The sectors that are favored and then what's the best stocks in that sector? So let me give you an example. The building stacks, the residential stocks are doing really well. The policy today was up and also MHO was up 16% glancing at my third page newsletter and so I'm looking at the future in other words they're going to continue to grow in this period. We shifted in May from Jupiter and Aries all the military and basic materials and so forth into this new cycle which was like foods and including restaurants and banking and financials and I realized today they backed off but that's a buying opportunity. Any pullback can be a buying opportunity. In fact, when I put the stocks in I usually say initiating coverage on a pullback meaning I give them a day or two because you're buying for the entire cycle and when there's a shift in the sector, it's a great buying opportunity. Okay, Grace, we got a break. Yeah, we got to pay a few bills. Stay with us. We'll be back in two minutes. See you later. We'll be right back folks. Grace Forrest. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com Educating investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to tfnn.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to tfnn.com right now to join thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. T-F-N-N, educating investors. Biotech is booming, but for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course, trade L-A-B-U or L-A-B-D. Directions daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit DirectionInvestments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Direction Shares carefully before investing. The Prospectus and Summary Prospectus contain this and other information about Direction Shares. To obtain a Prospectus or Summary Prospectus, please contact Direction Shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Foreside Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vistagold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Hey, we're back folks, speaking with Grace Morris of Astro Economics. Okay, Grace, tell us what else you have for us today. That would be interesting. Well, I have to follow up another area of technology as I said in my book written last year for this year. Technology would be sort of absent and the sayings did fade back the first half of the year. With saying by May, they would all be back for the rest of the year and they've come back with the vengeance. And the sayings are now the magnificent seven and those are all stocks that will continue to do well. Do you want to know what the magnificent seven is?  They certainly do. They follow them every day. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Zela and Tesla and Meta platforms. And so they will continue to outperform and their absence is duly noted, but they're back in trading range. As I said, the economic growth is very good and all that talk of recession and hard landings is pretty much going down the drain and even a soft landing. I think we're going to see good reports with the CPI and the PPI this week. So I think that's important to be optimistic and put stops on. That's what I try to tell the readers of the newsletter of my books and the webinars that I do. By the way, my website is www.astroeconomics.com and that's all the promotion I'll do. Well, that's good. You do webinars too, huh? Yes, and my next one is on Sunday, October 29th. My book for 2024 will be available next year's pick, but the webinar is a four hour and it's the explanation of everything that astroeconomics means, how to put stops fundamentally, technically, and with planetary cycles. And what are you charged for that, Grace? Well, the webinar is $350,000 and I think it's a great learning experience for the U.S., I should say. Would it be for the beginner as well as an experienced astrologer? Absolutely, to the most advanced because there's fund managers, head fund managers, when I'm not kidding with them, but definitely people who are wanting to learn it, it's helpful to understand this process. They may be very good at whatever techniques they use. This is a way of looking at how to combine all the fundamental technical and planetary cycle analysis. Well, Grace, I was visiting Alfie LaVoy and Carol about 10 years ago. Sarah and I went back to Connecticut to visit them and we spent two days with them and we were in his office and he got a phone call from the president of PepsiCo. And they were putting in stores at certain places. I think it was Taco Bell is what it was. And anyway, this guy spent a half an hour asking Alfie questions about why Alfie told him where to put the places. And he said, I've been doing this with them for 10 years. He had worked for them. He still works for them, by the way. And he goes by astrological charts of where they should place their stores and it does a pretty good job at it. So it's going to be really interesting to see if it ends up that way. I started to work with the franchisees of McDonald's because my office for 25 years was in Oak Brook which looked over the McDonald's university. And so all of those franchisees that came to the office, I was setting up each new franchisees needs an operation date. So that's what I did for many years. And as traders came from the Chicago Board of Trades came out, I could see Sears Tower from the tower floor. So it was an exciting time in Chicago. I am now in Florida in both of us. It was fun in Chicago back in those days. Now it's a lot different. Listen, we're going to have you on again soon but tell the folks how they can reach you if they'd like to see a sample of your letter or maybe even go to the webinar. Absolutely. Go to astro economics.com and just ask for free copy and I will be glad to send it to you. Okay, we'll have you on again soon. So take care of yourself down there in Florida living the easy life, okay? Thanks, Larry and good luck. You bet. Always. You're the best. Thank you. So are you. Grace Morris folks, astro economics. And hold on here just one second here. And I want to get back. We've got a trade going on in here. I thought we ought to share it here a little bit here. Give me one second. And well, I don't know if I can do this or not. Okay, I'm going to try it here because this is what we were looking at just a little while ago. And hold on, we'll get this up here. This was the crude oil we were looking at if you remember. Don't know what happened here. We've got a busy signal on the line. I can't post charts.  So let's try it one more time and see if we can get it up there and get it moving. But hold on just a second. I try to keep it interesting here. So it's live and not Memorex. Remember if you said I was looking at $82.50 and I wanted you to see why I was looking at $82.50 and there's where the time came in. It hit $82.53 and I just saw a trading at $82.40. Now, what I did was I raised 15 points on that. I sold it at $51 and I put a stop at $66. $82.66. So I'm only risking $150. I might even be stopped out of it by now but that's all I'm going to risk because once it starts to work it usually has a pretty good chance of going on and doing something pretty good but other times they just don't do very well. So bear with me here one second. I'm doing a lot of things today and I'm trying to keep my head above water a little better than that on what I'm watching for these markets today because we are in a very critical level where we could easily go one direction or another. I've been short stock, still short stock, short bonds and we had a nice run in the bonds folks. That was such an easy setup down there with those numbers. This is the big mistake that I made because I really blew the whistle on this one and the real key was this one right here. I believe this is the one, these charts are just driving me nuts. Hold on one second. That's not the one I wanted to show you. I've showed it before but it's important because when you make errors you've got to be able to recognize what you did wrong here. So let me get this one up here to take a look at these bonds and then we'll be able to get it. See when I click on the thing to show the bonds it just goes blank. Alright we're going to take a break here.<PHONE_NUMBER>. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball. 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Available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com. Then hit Watch Tiger TV. Okay, we're back folks and I would like you to know that I was stopped out on the high tick of the crude oil at $62.66. I sold it at $51. I lost my $150. It's trading at $82.63 now but that's all I wanted to risk. So I'm just standing aside now to see if that's going to be the case. Okay, now we've come off the bottom on the S&P 20 handles. Of course, we went all the way down to $44.82 during the day here. I'm going to try to show you this if I can get this done at the right time because we made a near perfect ABCD on the bottom today folks. It was just about a beautiful three-drive to a bottom that you would want to see and I did some covering of some shorts in that area but just wanted to show you. Now this is a short-term pattern so let me get this so you'll be able to I've got to do it the hard way so hold on here one second and we'll get this up here to take a quick look at it. Move on here, get this out of the way and try one more thing. Larry, Larry, Larry, Larry. This is really difficult folks trying to get these things done here. Well, why is it saying I'm on the air? We're at a break. How are we at a break? What's going on? Hello? Wow, I don't understand. Well, I'll tell you technical difficulties is my middle name. Here is a pattern that I was looking at today these charts. I'll take it and send them to the wood shed. Here is that this is just a very small 15-minute chart but you can see the nice little drive to a bottom pattern that we made here and that was pretty much it. So that's what we're looking at. So hopefully we'll be able to I have to turn this off. I hate to do this but I'll get back to them in just a little bit. Okay, one minute to the break I guess so hold on. There's a break coming up. Are we done now, Al? Is it over?


put all the background material into their heads. Oh, two days, three hours, or two minutes. This is going to be a problem to cover this area in 20 minutes without you having all the background. But I'll do my best. IPv6, simple, beautiful. If you connect to the FOSTA network, you run IPv6 only. You're happy. Things work mostly. But more things work this year than last year. But this is fairly simple. If you move your stuff and you port it to IPv6, both server and client, things will just work. It's just more bits on the IP packets, DNS, TCP, UDP, everything works like before. No problems. This was the world we saw in the mid-'90s when we said that, well, IPv4 is dying so fast, so it's going to be gone before year 2000. No. But at FOSTA, at least, it's gone. So I'm not going to spend much time on this. You all know IPv6, right? You all use IPv6 networks, right? Cool. This is where we get into trouble. We have two stacks. We have the old legacy dying, creepy, scary, insecure IPv4 network, and we have the IPv6 network. And we end up in situations where the client wants to connect to a server and suddenly have the choice of two different paths. We have two different protocols bringing us from point A to point B.  And then I'm not saying, go that way. We did that in the RCCs. We said, go IPv6. If you have IPv6, IPv4, go IPv6. This turned into a problem. Microsoft have done a lot of good things with IPv6. They actually, in Windows released, enable IPv6 for every single computer through automatic tunnels. So your Windows desktop believed it had IPv6. Firewall blocked it. Sites that actually published IPv6 DNS records for the same hostname got into trouble because the browser said, Google's not reachable. Facebook not reachable, which wasn't very good for marketing, didn't help the brands when everyone thought the servers was down. So they immediately disabled IPv6, which is not what we wanted. The solution to all of this is happy eyeballs. In the ITF, we created a standard specification saying, you should not start with IPv6 and then when you fail, move to IPv4. You should connect to both. IPv6 could give it a few milliseconds head start, right? But connect to both, mostly at the same time. And the first that responds, you keep that connection close to other one and you'll be happy. The users will be happy. The marketing people will happy. And we can safely migrate to IPv6. So the browser vendors, they implemented all of this. On June 6th, a few years ago, we tested live on the internet. Facebook, Microsoft, Google, everyone turned on IPv6 on the same host names and nothing happened. All browsing succeeded. Everyone was happy in their eyes. Marketing people was happy and we had IPv6 back in DNS. Happy eyeballs, connecting at the same time, not doing it serially. And continuing on the session that opened first. That's great. Well, on mobile phones, I frequently see that we have multiple interfaces. So now we have IPv4 and possibly IPv6 on the mobile cell phone network. And then we have Wi-Fi, whoo, should we set up four connections? 10, where's the limit? I have devices with four SIM cards and Wi-Fi. So the new world is giving us problems. And what happens, what we see is that on mobile networks that I add IPv6, the IPv4 network is suddenly behind a net, a carrier-grade, professional, high-end, cool net. Not the small-end family, home-rooter stuff you have at home.  You're right. Real-time protocols and that doesn't love each other. But that's not the end of it. They have session management on the network. They're adding a lot of boxes to manage stuff, to make your experience better, which practically kills everything you want to do real-time because to make things better, they close down IP flows to give room for new IP flows, to make new users happy. So your concurrent session in the background to your XMP server, go, your web socket, crash, burn. No fun at all. So we see that the IPv4 network is quickly dying. We have cell phones in production use in the national public radio where I spend a lot of time these days. We're moving heavily towards IPv6, which gives us a very clear path for the live broadcast audio directly from that device to our studio. The IPv4 network, everyone complains. But what we see with these mobile apps is that networks come and go. Suddenly the network you're using and you're having so much fun with, wow, it disappears. But another one, yet showed up. That wasn't really bad. Going back, this is making life really, really hard to have live, real-time connections, bi-directional. So happy eyeballs, well, that's the start. But we really need to focus on this in SIP. We need to have session resumption like the previous speaker talked about with XMPP. We need to be able to move our sessions in multimedia. That's called eyes. There's some cool stuff in eyes, Sal mentioned it. But of course, the internet is leaving IP. We're moving everything on top of HTTP, right? And that's all the problem with happy eyeballs. Everything is good and dandy and we're getting the new versions. Everything is sexy. One protocol for us all. For those of you who doesn't believe that religion, we still have good old SIP. What about VoIP, right? So the browser vendors sold us years ago. The SIP vendors sold us, moving to the next slide. XMPP, while TCP based have the same problems as HTTP. Haven't seen any discussion about solving this. I hope they cleaned up their own mess. Oh, where about to see? In the core spec says, we're dual stack. How many have tested that? And in some specs, I ask, oh, what about IPv6 or dual stack? We'll take that later. Okay, when? RC3261, which is 140 pages of fun, stated early SIP works with both IPv4 and IPv6. So we should be good, right? I mean, come on, this was in 2002. Camelio supports IPv6 from day one in our code. Staying happy. Do we have a problem in SIP? Tested it at SIPP. I've been testing numerous times. We have issues with finding the best media path but there are standards. Setting up a connection to signaling. Try happy eyeballs over UDP fellows. Give a solution to that. Finding the quickest connection where we have a connection less protocol. Ooh. Setting up the best connection between users. So this is rather fun. I ended up with this conclusion. Yeah, we do have a problem. Someone is gonna fix it. Oops, someone is me. Hey, join me in fixing this. Oops, guess not. So I started writing some ITF documents. I got actually a few people on board helping you write those and getting it through the whole process. So we have one RC now and we have two more drafts coming on how to fix this in SIP. What we discovered while testing was that IPv4 devices with single stacks crashed and burned because in SIP we have IP addresses everywhere in the messages and we injected IPv6 addresses here and there and their software burned. So even if you're not porting your software to IPv6 you need to watch out when you have these protocols because we're sending addresses inside. Also, when I said in my DNS that, hey, I prefer if you connect to me over IPv6 in my SRV records, the first priority was IPv6 only. The second was IPv4 and IPv6. Many implementations crashed and burned because they couldn't really understand that first priority and they didn't understand that they should fail over to the second priority. And that's covered in the RFC. You're all going home to read that I actually wrote. So crashes, no connections, that's fun. Yeah. For media, we have eyes and eyes have IPv6 additions. You have dual stacks. And the default role is if you're IPv6 only you have to help those poor, poor, poor pieces of code out there that doesn't support this by going to a turn server and applying for one of these IPv4 legacy addresses. So you have to help others. Have I seen this in WebRTC? No. The biggest problem I had was in one of the core RFCs that was a little over. So people came to me and said, well, the RFC says I should ask for IPv4 or IPv6 and ask for one. Five years of fighting the war and changing that to an and, but we did it. We changed that RFC. So where are we? SIP, one RFC published, one SIP forum document, ITF drafts in process. We're making progress, progress. XMPP, I have the same happy eyeballs problems. I haven't seen any, don't need any RFCs but the implementations need to test. I haven't seen that. WebRTC should work. Sounds promising, right? Yeah, we have work to do. And I believe there are many, many other protocols out there that have this problem but people haven't really tested, haven't considered the impact of dual stack fully. I think in SIP we're actually way ahead of a lot of protocols. So you may ask yourself, is this for real? Yes. Many mobile carriers around the globe started in the US but actually now in Sweden as well our carrier in the radio added IPv6. We have dual stacks in all our office mobile phones. So everything's journalists out there, dual stack. So that's cool. At the same time they actually added a carrier grad NAT and every week they keep modifying the session timers for that NAT, which is fun because then I have to modify the KIPA lives in my Kamilu server, which keeps me busy. So they're adjusting their stuff. They don't want to occupy, as more people get on board with this dual stack server the carrier grad NAT allocates memory for all the sessions and they don't want to keep them in memory. So they went down from five minutes to three minutes and now recently to one minute. And they also have a session limitation. We haven't found that and they don't want to tell us but they have confirmed they have a limitation on the number of concurrent IPv4 sessions and they're properly adjusting that as well. So this is fun. We discovered that we have those little access points connecting to cell data. They still run NAT even though the network runs NAT. So in those cases, if we use IPv4 we have dual NATs. What can be better than a single NAT? Yeah, two NATs in the same session. We're happy. And that little mobile pack, by the way, had a SIP helper application, an application level gateway that Iñaki so loves. So removing everything, all the media to IPv6 as fast as we can. So we're really pushing our vendors and that's the tough problem. They are not ready for this. Oh, we tested IPv6 in our lab and it works. Okay, have you tested this, this, this? Oh, I wasn't aware of that. Thanks God I can point to ITF documents and real stuff in the SIP forum. Not just being me, even though I wrote them. Open source, Camille, you have issues with this. Asterisk has issues, free switch, most likely I have not sold this. And the same thing I think goes for a lot of these. We need to solve the happy eyeballs problems and I need you guys to help me with UDP because that's the missing draft. You're drafted, right? It's getting painful because this is in production. It's now, really. It exists in a lot of products. We have a lot of theories. Move to TCP and you can do happy eyeballs. Fix the eye stuff and you're ready. You also need to look because a lot of your applications, even though they're SIP, WebRTCX and PP, they use HTTP or LDAP or something else. All of these TCP connection protocols, they will have happy eyeballs problems as soon as you add IPv6 to the DNS entry. So this is now, build a testbed, fix your applications. Thank you. Oh, I see questions. What's your SC number? I can look you up and read it. Sal, my assistant will find it soon. I think 7948. I should have it engraved here. Proud author of. Yeah, so last year, thank to Apple, PgC, for pushing to IPv6 and everything, everyone was scared of getting kicked off the app store, right? One of the things I didn't mention is, not the worst, I was single stack even, IPv6 to those camellias or whatever doing IPv4 only. And they have not 64-bit support to solve everything. And then obviously it fails HTTP and all that sort of stuff. And I think, is there any way to comment on the IPv6 to IPv4 or? To be honest, I haven't started testing that because I've been so fully occupied with this. We said at the last snippet where PgSIP was actually involved, we said that we need to install NAT64 in our town. This has been so painful, so it's been enough. But you're right, we probably need to look into that as well. Especially with DNSSEC and other things, NAT64 can be interesting. More questions? We got two more minutes, so. You're happy, you're going to read all the documentation, the AI downloaded. We are all happy eyeballs. You're happy eyeballs. Stay in this room and the rest of the documentation will be downloaded at five o'clock or something into your extra memory. Thank you. In two days' time. Great, that's pretty usual. Thank you. Thanks, Ali. You're welcome. Yeah, it made me think about certain things and how we should do connects and HTTP as well. We should preferably publish both addresses. And Jingle has the same set of problems as we have with media.  And I'm fortunate enough to live in an environment where most of my peers do IPv6 well or not at all. And my home connection is very reliable with IPv6. So it might be IPv6 by the provider.


My name is Sophia Deroja. I'm a photographer, artist, writer, and avid reader of most any book I can find. And I was a completely reluctant WordPress user. I've been working with WordPress for about three years. I didn't start using WordPress consistently until a year or so ago when I saw a need and tried to fill it. We'll get back to that in a minute. Now, I say I've been working with WordPress for only three years, but I've been in the WordPress community as long as I can remember. My dad knew people, my mom knew people, and it didn't take very long for me to know people either. I attended my very first WordCamp in 2014 in Chicago, and that's where I really started to get into things. My mom told me that before I went to a WordCamp, I needed to make a blog. At the age of 13, I didn't really know what I wanted to do with my blog or what I really liked to do in general, so I wrote random things and posted them there. It wasn't until recently, though, that I discovered the joys of writing on a blog and all the amazing things you can do with WordPress. If you asked me what WordPress was three years ago, I would have told you it was a blogging platform. Now that I feel the inclination to laugh in my 13-year-old self's face, before I forget, hi, grandma. She should be here somewhere. I don't know if she's here yet. Oh, hi, grandma. Now, to the need! I had a group of people at my church who all wanted to communicate but didn't have a good way of going about it. They would have to use multiple different social media platforms, and many of us were too young to use the ever-so-common Facebook. It was always messy and always complicated. One day, my dad asked me if I'd ever be interested in a social site for my friends and I, thinking he'd build it for us. Little did he know, I'd be taking the reins. My dad got me set up with a basic blog platform, and I ran with it from there. First of all, I downloaded BuddyPress. It's a plugin like all the others, and it gave me multiple options with the help of themes and plugins to convert my site to the kind of social site I was looking for. After I downloaded BuddyPress, I went over to Facebook and started looking for all the things I wanted in a social site. For an image's function, I used a Jetpack, but Jetpack also has many other features. When you first download Jetpack, it takes you to a payment page. If you close out of that, go to the Jetpack dashboard and click Debug. You can unlock all of Jetpack's services. A plugin I used alongside Jetpack was U Image Optimizer. It works by compressing images to make your site faster, being that one of the main functions of my site was pictures, having a fast site was crucial. Once I finished that, I went on to find a messaging plugin. I personally couldn't find that many messaging plugins, but White Chat was my favorite. It provides clean, simple messaging. I haven't messed with it very much, but it allows for group and one-on-one messaging. The only downside is that I haven't found a way to send images. I assume that's a whole other plugin in itself. When you're the creator of a BuddyPress site, you're in the admin role, which means you have free range to everything. There are multiple different roles you can be in, so to do some testing in each role, I used user switching so I didn't have to keep logging in and out. Now I get to explain the kittens. In my previous slides, I have the logo for each plugin in the bottom left corner, but for those that I couldn't find a logo for, I used kittens. Another optimization plugin I used was SG Optimizer. This plugin only works if you have SiteGround hosting your page. It works by caching pages, having the latest version of PHP and caching database queries. I don't know what most of that means, but I do know that it makes your site faster, and that's kind of all you need to know. Once my site was up, running, and fast, I started to look at the details of it. My dad and I used plug-in exception to create a login short code plugin that made the login form provided by theme my login more like what I was looking for. That way, this way, we had a clear login page that protected the content from users who weren't logged in and from those who weren't logged in. Next was the rules page. I really debated about how to do this. I wanted to make sure each user got a good look at the rules and regulations, but I didn't want it to be annoying. The best way I could think of was to use terms of service and privacy policy generator to create a rules page that would only show up when a new user first logged in. After that, I used widget logic. That allows for certain widgets to show up only on the preferred page so things are more clean and organized. Widget placement really seems to be where my designer OCD comes out. I could spend hours reorganizing plugins. Or widgets, sorry. Oh, I skipped one. And last but not least, I used the events calendar to add a calendar page. This held information about various youth year by activities so students wouldn't miss anything fun. I didn't really know what to look for in a good plug-in. I checked ratings, reviews, and often googled to find what I was looking for. I've been having some trouble lately with my site crashing, saying it tried redirecting too many times. I didn't know what to do, so I went to my dad for tech support. Sometimes I just needed professional help. We found out it was probably something with the plugins, so I downloaded a plug-in detective. This is a plug-in my dad heard about, so I did some googling, learned about it, and how it works. I haven't had any time to learn how to use it, but that's definitely something I'm going to work on. Once I got the site built, I started the communications and managerial side of things. I was updating calendars, approving new users, and adding new things here and there. You know what I realized? That's a lot of work for a single person. After a couple months, I sent out some sign-up sheets for various jobs my friends could start helping with. Recently, I've been training them, and soon I'm going to be training a friend of mine to primarily take over after I graduate high school. Probably one of the most valuable things I learned from this whole process is that people are capable. If you need help, ask for it. I can almost guarantee there will be someone out there willing to help you. After the site was live, I gave the announcement at my youth group, and a couple users started streaming in. That was it. Just a couple. It's not so frustrating. I wasn't quite sure what to do. The primary goal was to create a place where everyone could talk to each other, but that only worked if everyone was on the site. I made a couple flyers and put them up at my church, but that didn't seem to help a lot, either. Something that has helped, though, is getting more people involved. Not only does it bring in more users, but it also helps the site have more content and information that I couldn't provide on my own. Now, let's bring some things into perspective for a moment. I went from 13-year-old blogger to 16-year-old social media designer, slash builder, slash manager, slash every other job you need to keep a site full of teenagers up and running. My point here is that it's not that hard. If you know someone or some way to get started and know how to Google the rest, that's really all you need. It's all about finding a need and being willing to learn all you have to to fill that need. That's what I did, and a year later, I'm speaking in a WordCamp. Now, let's sum things up a little. Is that the right one? I don't remember. Let's sum things up a little. I started with a need. I took that need, had an idea, and got some advice. After that, I learned how to make my idea a reality and created something that filled the need. When we couldn't use Facebook, I downloaded BuddyPress and made my own. I used other plugins to add some key features that added functionality. I consulted a professional when I got stuck, and when I started to feel overwhelmed, I got some help from my friends. When I first had the idea of making a social site, I didn't think I was qualified. I tend to be more Bob Ross than Mark Zuckerberg. I didn't really see how any skill set I had fit the position. But once I got started, I started to develop the skills I needed. I also noticed some skills that have always been there. I just didn't see them until now. Sometimes the most important things seem so big and scary, but once we start doing them, we realize that they're not so bad, and that we kind of like them. For the longest time, I didn't really want to do anything with WordPress, neither as a blogger nor more than that. It just didn't seem very interesting. But after making this site, I learned that I actually kind of like setting up websites. I like managing things, and I seem to be pretty good at it. I don't know if that's what my future holds, but I do know those are skills I have, and I shouldn't have any trouble using them when the time comes. Thank you, and good night.


Okay, so welcome everyone to this session entitled New Frontiers for DGS2. I will share my screen just to give a quick presentation of the two presenters we have here today. So, we have one hour and two presenters. First, we have Justine Faye from USA Sites, talking about the integration of climatic data for disease prediction. Then, after that, we have Elmerie Klassen from East South Africa, talking about their work on data science methods. So, without further ado, I will leave the floor for Justine to start, and I believe in the chat, you will find the link to come into practice where you can post any questions you have. So, Justine, please. I think maybe while Justine, if you could look at a potential... Is that data? We can give the word to Elmerie to present first. And then I think we can try some solutions, Justine. Okay, if it's okay, I think we can swap the order of presentations and give the word to Elmerie first. Hi, Johan. Am I coming through clearly? Yes, thank you. Okay, I will start sharing my screen then. That's a sec. Okay, for this, it should come up now. All good. Then hi, everyone. I'm happy to connect with you virtually today. I'm Elmerie Klassen from East South Africa, where I'm the manager for data science. I'm also joined by Jaco Fenter, the manager for product development. This is a combined effort between our teams to develop this application. Is data science in DHAs too scientific? Predicting prints or estimating targets used to be a challenging process, but not anymore with the emergence of data science. Coupled with DHAs too, you now have a powerful and informative tool at hand. Data science combines the technical disciplines that solve business problems through the extraction of knowledge from data. In other words, our presentation is going to show you how we have made solving complex analytical, probable and accessible applying data science techniques. In the past, we have become used to collecting data and preaching, turning it into information by illustrating it on graphs and tables. But very few reach the level of transforming that into knowledge resulting in informed decision making and planning. As we embrace the fourth industrial revolution, we need to take advantage of technology to provide longer and healthier lives for all. Predictive analytics, machine learning and other data science methodologies coupled with clinical insight and knowledge will lead to a positive impact in client outcomes. This is the problem we are addressing with our solution. So our problem statement was that we needed to use predictive analytics to set targets. DHAs too does have predictive functionality, but it requires the selection of a specific function which is applied to all health facilities data. Instead, we want to enhance the predictive functionality on DHAs too by providing a model that selects the best fit curve thus enhancing predictive accuracy. This is continually improved through training the model with every iteration using machine learning. The methodology to get the best fit algorithm. So not all data in a specific data set fit into a specific function. For example, it's tricky to select one function to apply in the same manner to all clinics, CHCs and hospitals or even for all clinics in a given area. It is well known that there are different algorithms for predictions. This may be based on the variables that affected. We developed a process which runs through all of these algorithms and identify which is the best fit for a specific set of data. This output demonstrates the outcome of all of the algorithms and identifies the one that is best fit to predict the trend of the data. Best fit is where the regression coefficient discloses to one. It runs through all six functions and selects the one with the best regression. In this example, the parabolic curve number two was the best fit. The next best fit curve was the cubic curve. For reference, the best two outputs are displayed as seen here. Since we store data in DHAs, we decided to build a DHAs2 app. The interface should be able to select source criteria, for example, the organizational hierarchy, the data element, and the period of source data. It should define the prediction criteria, for example, the period of the prediction, whether to do a forward or backward prediction, whether to store the data or to do a dry run. It should define the output data element for storing the predicted values and display the output results in a user-friendly format. So following here, we showed the DHAs2 app that we have designed with a toolbar on the left, selecting three parameters to work with. And the output you will see on the right. There are three parameters to work with. The first is the source criteria. You select the data element and define the organizational unit hierarchy and the period for which to run the prediction. As each value is selected, it is stored on the right-hand side in the prediction selections. The predictions can be run at different levels in the organizational hierarchy by selecting the level at which it should be run and then to select the period for the source data. Selecting or adding a source data element name and the number of periods for the prediction. Of course, the greater the amount of historic data used in that input, the more accurate the prediction. And to select whether to do a dry run or not and a dry run will not store the data. The prediction we're running here is to support the 95, 95, 95 targets which states that 95% of people living with HIV should know their status. 95% of people who are known positive should be on treatment and 95% of people on ART treatment should be virally suppressed. We therefore monitor the number of people remaining on ART as a national indicator which this prediction was run on for a district and we're going to show you the outcome from a number of facility predictions. South Africa aims to increase the number of people on ART by 2 million in two years. Therefore, most facilities should increase uptake on ART through appropriate interventions. To verify our model, we developed an option to compare the predicted data with real performance. In these, the output for the prediction is reduced by the number of predicted periods. The input period we ran here is from March 2014 until August 2019. Then we predicted data forward for 12 months and compare that with real data for the same 12 month period. On these graphs, the blue line represents the actual data and the red line represented predicted values. From 2017, in this particular graph, it is clear that the trend slowly decreased with another increase and a subsequent decrease again. The prediction follows the same decreased trend, though the real data slows a gradual increase with a sudden drop. The parabola or cube foot will smooth out the hams in data and provide a reliable prediction. When considering the knowledge and insights one can gain from this data, you can now establish why this occurred through consultation with the health facility and implement appropriate interventions. Here are some more results from the prediction run which is similar and even with extreme variances in the earlier data as can be seen in this graph. The adaptive methodology selected a method resulting in a close match to the actual values as seen here. The predicted values in this are higher than the reality, as you can see. But it is clear from the graph that the prediction looks accurate. This allows investigation into the reasons for the actual performance deviating from expected performance. We developed a 1990 report to assist health facilities to monitor their performance towards facility targets, which was set using methods before this prediction methodology was developed. South Africa is still using 90% targets for health facilities, since most are not yet reaching the 90% to push them towards 95%. Since we see such a wide discrepancy in this prediction, we wanted to look at the 1990 HTML report in DHAs too for further insight. As you can see from this slide, a manager commented on this report providing interpretation of the information. She reflects that the HIV tests done are only 61.4% of the targets, which has a knock-on effect on the indicators. If more people are tested, more positive clients will be identified and more started on art, resulting in those remaining on art being closer to the target. The viral load done at six months is below the target, which means the result of the viral load suppressed, values also being below the target. This analysis would assist the facility manager or health managers to identify reasons for the lower than expected performance, which result in the lower than predicted number of patients remaining on art as seen in the prediction graph. This process will provide insight when coupled with clinical knowledge and expertise on the external factors that influence the data. Studying based on work practices and implementing corrective measures based on those, the health system can now gain wisdom on how to intervene appropriately in order to make an impact through improving health outcomes for the client, bettering the lives of all. You can also see in the graph on the right how this facility's performance is impacting the district to not meet their targets. The green bars are actual performance and the blue are the gap from the 1990-1990 targets. What you have seen today is just the beginning and we don't plan to stop here. Our upcoming plans include adding functionality for indicators and program indicators, defining accuracy through machine learning, releasing this as a DHS2 app to the community to share with all of you, applying the insight gained to achieve impact for clients, and enhancing the AI capabilities through neural network integration. At this we believe in creating better lives for all citizens. We do this through our products and services, our partnerships and our business pursuits that adapt with the changes in the environment. We pride ourselves on being a learning organization that continually innovates and collaborates, making use of novel technologies and creatively solving problems with the collective mindsets in our organization. To find out more about what we do and how you can get involved, connect with our managers and read more about us on our website. Thank you. Thank you very much Elmarie. So Justin, can we try again with your presentation? Do we have Justin here? I think she might have left again. She was trying to test her internet connection at this stage, which is what I think was causing her audio problems. Okay, so while we're waiting for her to reconnect, let's see if there are any questions. There are no written questions yet. Let's see if we get Justin on now. In the meantime, I'd like to remind you that you can post your questions on the Community of Practice page. See, we have Justin about to join or trying to join. Give her a second to see if we can get the connection here. Seems to still be some troubles joining. There we have Justin. If you grant, can give Justin the co-host authority. Justin, if you want to try and talk again for us. Can you hear us, Justin? If so, please unmute and try to talk again. Okay, I think while we try to connect with Justin, we have a question written here for you Elmarie on the Community of Practice page by Anna Tusheng. I can read it out for you all. To what extent are the predictors to present in use in South Africa? Who runs these predictions? Does this happen at district facility level or do they need technical assistance to do that? Hi, and thanks for your question. We have recently completed those predictions. So we are still presenting this to the ministry in terms of the use. But essentially, I think it's not really required for health facilities to run it. It would be more run at a higher level at periods where they developed plans, performance plans, annual plans to set realistic targets. And we also want to work with them on increasing the use of these predictions to not just use it as predictor functionality, but as a prescriptive analytics. In other words, through machine learning, you can actually identify what activities or what base practices would result in higher performance than other practices. We would then feed that into our machine learning models and be able to assist the department to aim for higher targets and then prescribe to users or to health facilities what activities it is that would help them to achieve those higher targets. So the use for this is very broad in terms of where we can use it. Also in identifying where problem facilities are and assist those facilities to address those issues. So it's still a new developed but we foresee it being more run at higher levels. Okay, thank you. I think we have lost Justin again. So we continue with more questions and please feel free to write them down on the community of practice. I have a question and Marie, you alluded to it in the last slide that you will make this available. Can you say something about the timeline here and how much flexibility do you foresee in this in terms of adjusting it to different cases and different predictor analysis? Sorry, how much? What will be the aim in terms of flexibility of use cases etc. Will it be a very custom made app for very specific predictor analysis or do you plan to have it more open for a greater variations of use? I think it is open for a greater variation of use. That's why we want to include program indicators and indicator values as well. And as long as the source data that will be used is of a fair period, we foresee that to have quite a wide variety, wide use. And therefore we do foresee it to be something that can be used by the wider community. Thank you. I see we now have Justin online with us. Can you try to unmute and talk a bit, Justin, to check the sound now? Can you write in the chat if you are able to hear us? In the meantime, I think we have one more question for you, Elmarie. And it's about the original request for this app. Is this something demand this work is going out from? Is it coming from specific health programs or more broadly? Or is it something you have engaged with in South Africa more on your own? Yes, thanks. The request initially came from the ministry, specifically the unit dealing with planning to be able to assist them to set realistic targets. So we have produced this for that reason, but also that it will assist many of our other clients as well. So the initial request came from the ministry. Do you want us to try again, Justin? Okay, I think she will be joining by phone quite soon. So in the meantime, if there are any more questions for Elmarie? Looks like we've got one hand up from Scott. Hey, thanks guys. I just actually wanted to say Elmarie, what an incredible app and I really can't wait until it is shared with the community. I think it'll really benefit a lot of folks. Second time I've been able to enjoy seeing the presentation. I learned something new this time as well. One thing I was going to say in your presentation, you mentioned that DHIS2 does have some kind of core out of the box predictive abilities. I think that you're being really nice when you say that actually. To be honest, we DHIS2 is able to have calculations that can forecast data based upon some simple like averages or standard deviations, really basic formulas, really calculations to be able to generate data that would be projected forward in time. But nothing anywhere close to as advanced or as you've been able to do with your predictive analytics and certainly nothing with machine learning and I think this is really kind of a pretty incredible first leap into machine learning in DHIS2. So as more use cases come online, I would love to stay close to them and hear about them and learn from them. That's all I had to say. Thanks. Oh, thanks, Scott. You know, we we investigated the functionality that is there, but specifically for this specific use case that I was presenting we found that different facility types. The declining print because of referrals others were increasing. So it just wasn't easy for us to use to select a preselect a specific say exponential curve or however we, you know, deviation. So it's, it's been coming up from need. And it does require quite a long amount of data. So, because we had that it was easy to develop a system we have data for from 20 from 2000 really, which helps a lot in developing these algorithms. But thanks. We will definitely like to work with the community on finding more use cases and thanks. Thank you. Do we have you here now, Justin? Yes, yes, I'm on. Very good. Excellent. Floor is yours. All right. Thank you so much for this opportunity. I'm sorry about the previous synthesis of the voice not coming through. I'm a specialist for U.S. ID strategic information taking code on your conference about my research findings that I did at my master's degree at the school of public health university. Presenting to you the results we got from integration of DHS to one climatic data purposely I did that for disease prediction. And I took a study of Malaria occurrence in the guru district to Uganda. This research was done in collaboration with other people like Dr. Peter Navende, Dr. Simon Casasa, Dr. Nadsenyonga, Mary Nakafero and John Kisa. Their address is listed on that cover page. Next slide please. Next slide. Go, sorry. Keep going. What was the problem area and what motivated me to do this research? I realized that many researchers have discovered that prediction models, that prediction models are important and they can actually assist public health in everyday's best decision making. However, when I looked into what has been done in Uganda, I realized that we were only depending on disease burden estimates. We were only looking at our burden estimates based on the, we were only looking at disease burden estimates based on our DHS to reported data. And the, and the roughest of our season with any kind of way. Justine, I'm losing you again. Yeah, I think we've lost our game. Okay, I think while waiting. Justine, I think there is something going on with your internet connection now. We can barely hear you again. Yes, can you hear me? Okay, so I, because in Uganda we were only relying, even up to now we only rely with the changes. And the idea is still, still can't hear me. No, I'm up country. We can hear you now. Yes, please continue. You can, you can hear me now. Yeah, that's better. All right. Sorry, I'm actually up country and our up country network sometimes doesn't work so well. But I had reached a point when I was saying that I reached a point when I thought that we could still be having malaria as an endemic in most of our regions, because maybe we don't target our interventions at the right times of the dependent on weather changes. So I set out to see if there is any relationship between malaria occurrence and climate or weather changes. I went out and got data from the House and the Uganda National Meteorological Authority, locally collected data that is collected weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly, but I rely on cases and weekly data of our weather changes. So we, because other people had integrated their data source, their data and found some relationships. I went out and also started integrating our data to see if we can actually see a relationship between malaria cases and our country. But this time I was only looking at Gulu districts. So we decided to explore what approaches are currently being used by the National Malaria Control Program to predict malaria occurrence. And what control measures and prevention measures have been happening since the year 2013. Then we also wanted to establish the suitable combinations of the very imposed and their time lags for malaria cases occurrence. And we also set out to provide some machine learning models and some predictive models. And this research study used the methodology that we call the mixed methods design, where we included qualitative and we did a retrospective cross sectional data collection and analysis of our local. Justin, I think we've lost you again. Okay, I think we have lost Justin again. Yeah, this is not going to easy. So I think, I mean, let's take the opportunity, waiting a couple of minutes, let's take the opportunity to ask Marie any more questions or raise any issues related to this work and the topic of this session. You probably used the ability to raise your hand so you'll be able to talk. Yes. Hello. Can I continue? Can you hear me? You're back now. That's terrible. There is a slide of qualitative findings. There is such findings that would be good from our research. Or should I go back to research objectives? Okay, there. Alright, so what we found was that our National Malaria Control Program currently relies on seasonality area outcomes and to determine what control measures so they can be like the rain season is about to start. Then later start distributing mosquito nets. Then they start distributing mosquito nets. And then other times they will be like, I think there is some, a lot of stagnant work around some villages that are start doing indoor rescue spraying IRS. But actually, sometimes as far as we shall see from the qualitative findings, we discovered that malaria cases do not happen. They do not increase before the rains. They actually increase after sometime when the rain has occurred. So for them they just say in September we are going to distribute mosquito nets. In January we are going to do IRS. But actually they are not backed by evidence of when actually is the right time to distribute the mosquito nets. Then we also found that Google District in particular uses different interventions and they have adopted the combination preventive mechanism. However, we did not find any documentation of when the different interventions happened. They did not have an actual date of maybe we distributed mosquito nets from this period to this period. So I couldn't determine whether the increase or the reduction in malaria cases as seen in DHIS2 was due to the distribution or to the distribution of malaria cases. Whether it was due to the IPT that happened because there was no documentation at distributed level to show that from this time to this time we were doing IPT. Then we realized that for them they distribute massively mosquito nets in September and October of every year. Not necessarily that they are guided by some weather changes, but it's just their routine program that every September and every October they distribute mosquito nets. Next slide please. So what were our key findings from the quantitative research? We realized that during that reporting time I used data from 2013 to 2017 because before 2013 our DHIS2 did not have weekly data. And the research started around 2018 so there wasn't much data in 2018. And during our reporting period realized that on average of 2,689 cases we are seeing every week in Gulu district. Then we also realized for cases they would see a minimum of 468 and they had a maximum of 11,459 malaria cases for that reporting period. The rainfall was on average 28.15 millimeters per week and then with a minimum of zero and a maximum of 163. We also had a minimum temperature in that region for the reporting period of 19.6 degrees centigrade and a maximum of 15. Sorry, an average of 19.36, a minimum of 15.27 and a maximum of 22.62, that is the minimum temperature. And the maximum temperature on average was 30.68 degrees centigrade with a minimum of 26.72 and 36.70. And then we had relative humidity at six hours. The average was 75.4 with our minimum being 34.57 and a maximum of 123.07. And we had a relative humidity at 12 hours of an average of 51.19, a minimum of 17.43 and a maximum of 151.29. So we set out to look at these different variables which one can actually cause a change in malaria cases depending on how the cases were increasing. We continued merging and integrating. There was an iterative process of trying out, let us mix the cases with minimum temperature. Let us mix the cases with maximum temperature. How about if we do it with rainfall and then we put some minimum temperature, then rainfall and maximum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. So we were able to finally come up with a model that we can actually say that if you used this model, you can actually accurately predict the likely cases that might happen in the next month or next quarter or next year. And when we took our data into WECA software to test for predictions, as you see in that image, please, next slide, please. Next slide of WECA test predictions for targets. Sorry about that one. Thank you so much. Yeah, when we did WECA test predictions for our targets, as you can see in that image, at the start, when the machine is just starting to learn, it hasn't learned so much about the relationship in the data. So when you look at the actual cases, which is red color, those are our actual cases from DHS to that's how the pattern is. They sometimes go up, at the times they go down. So we started to, we told WECA to help predict the future of these cases. And when you look closely at the beginning, you can see there is great variance between the red line and the blue line. Meaning WECA hadn't yet mastered the pattern of the cases, but as we travel into the way these cases and the climate have fluctuating on this graph, you see that the blue is almost close to the red dot. Now it can accurately predict for us the actual numbers that will happen. And when we actually did the calculations between the differences, we realized that actual WECA can predict very accurately. Meaning if you got data of like 10 years ago, then 20 years ago, then you tell it to predict the likely cases for 2021 as possible. Then we, next slide please. So what was the conclusion from this research? The conclusion was that if we are to have a change in malaria cases that we say are due to weather, the rainformers have occurred in the maximum temperatures. This can be explained by the fact that when it is raining, the temperatures get solo. It becomes very cold for the mosquitoes to breed. So it is normally after two weeks of rainfall when the temperatures have gone high. That's when the mosquitoes start to breed and then they will start going in and biting people and spreading the malaria from one person to another. Then we also think there should be proper documentation for clear dates of the different intervention strategies. If you set out and go on a national rollout of mosquito nets, we should know that in District A, we distributed mosquito nets from 19 January to 30 March. So that when we see a reduction of malaria cases in May or April, we can actually attribute the reduction to the malaria, to the mosquito nets distribution. Because currently the way we just distribute without documentation, documenting the actual dates, we cannot attribute the changes in malaria cases to our interventions that we carry out in the different regions of the country. Then another outlook is that we can include many other contributory parameters in future studies that could actually improve the prediction accuracy of the models. Because in this research, I only considered climatic data. You could add in the vegetation cover, you could add in many other things to improve the accuracy of the prediction model. And then we also only looked at Gulu District because with master's research, I was limited by how many districts I could look at, otherwise the worker software could have been able to analyze the national data. But limitations of masters, they were like, you can't do a national data analysis. So I think if we could utilize the whole national data and given the fact that artificial neural networks are very data hungry, I believe if we used a much bigger data set, we could actually greatly improve the prediction accuracy. Because the one district that I fed in two workers is just like a small drop in an ocean and that could explain why it wasn't so accurate to the point from even the beginning of the testing. Then are you going to national stores? It's data in Excel sheets. Yeah, they don't have a clear national database as is with the Ministry of Health. And I think for someone can take this up to, since we are now in DHIS, I think someone can actually think of creating a national data base similar to DHIS to for the Ministry of Health, where they can use to collect and enter the data from their different sentinels. So it's across the country. Yeah, those were the key findings and outlooks that can actually further this research. And then next slide please. The next slide is acknowledgments. I acknowledge the IST Africa 2020 conference. They were able to review this work and it was presented and they did not only publish it on their conference proceedings, but they also gave me a second publication with IEEE. And that's the paper link in case you are interested in reading extra details of what was done of the methodologies and extra findings, you can find them at that link. I also appreciate the support of the Norwegian government that offered me a scholarship through the high-trend scholarship under Norrid at Mercury University in Information Technology. And I appreciate the School of Public Health for having grounded my public health concepts. They also supported my conference attendance at that time, both financially and of course academic skills. And a special thanks to my Ministry of Health, Uganda and the DHIS to community plus its other partners who make sure that DHIS provide the platforms for us to be able to thank you because without this data that they had collected. Made this research. And I also thank the Uganda National Meteorological Authority for having given me access to their weather data that they had collected over the years without any restrictions. Thank you so much. That's the end of my presentation. Thank you very much, Justin, and thanks for all the efforts to get online and present your interesting work. We still have a few minutes if there are any questions for Justin and her work on predictions. You can either write them in the community practice page or I believe also you could raise your hand to talk in this session room or write it in the chat if you feel like. I thought I have a question for you, Justin. So this work on predictive or prediction of malaria cases, that would be for how much time ahead can you do this? You say you need a couple of weeks or? Sorry, sorry about your question. For how long time in advance can you predict outbreaks of malaria? Oh, yeah, you can predict for as long as you need to look into the future. Because for us we normally have our cases weekly, monthly, quarterly, and then annually. So you can maybe say I'm budgeting for the next week, then you predict for those cases or you could say I want to know how many cases are likely to happen next month. But the fact that these interventions take some time, the idea would be that you predict for the next three months so that you intervene before the cases increase. Then you could also say let me predict for the next financial year. Then we could say in the next financial year according to the predictions it's likely to have very high cases. Then what do we do? We put some interventions before that year starts and then we shall actually not see those high cases that have been predicted. Yes, does that answer your question? Yes, thank you. I was just wondering if also, you know, for what you need, you know, need quite recent data to be able to make predictions. So with the current rainfall and temperature increase today you can predict more or less with confidence a couple of weeks into the future or can you predict with confidence longer than that? Okay, thank you so much. You can predict with confidence in the nearest future and much longer. Finally, I did test, you'll see in my paper, I did test the malaria cases of 2019 when I completed the analysis of using 2018 data. I did test the future of malaria cases and it gave me some numbers. Then I got DHIS to actual figures of 2019 and the prediction was very accurate. Meaning it can predict accurately both in the short term and in the longer future. Okay, yeah, thank you. That answered my question. I think we are actually running out of time so I'd like to thank both the speakers, Justin and Marie for very interesting and good presentations. I'd like to thank everyone for showing up and for your patience with us through some technical difficulties. Again, thank you everyone and have a good day.