Hello everyone, once again I welcome you all to the MSP lecture series on transfer metallic chemistry. I started discussion on oxidative addition and reductive elimination reactions and in my previous lecture I showed a scheme in which I considered many substrate molecules which can undergo oxidative addition or which perform oxidative addition on a metal and let me continue from where I had stopped. So this is the scheme yesterday I wrote. You can see the difference between few substrates and their addition onto the metal centre. For example if you see hydrogen, hydrogen is added on sideways that is in a cis manner and then if you look into oxygen that is also added in a cis manner. So that means oxygen or hydrogen when they are added first they go and sit something like this and then they split into two anionic ligands. And then if you just look into ME3SiH trimethicillin it also follows the same sequence and then another one is these three but look into other four reactions here. So just to differentiate the chlorine or chloride ligand that is coming from the substrate molecule and also one that is already present I have given different colours. Let us look into this one here if you see this one is coming here and this one is coming here that means they are added trans positions on iridium moiety and then if you look into mercury chloride again same thing it is added here and here and then if you look into typical addition of hydrogen halide that also they are going to opposite ends and same thing is to in case of methyl iodide. That means why that is happening like that it is not just with these substrates. If you consider substrate such as SNCl4 this can also add like SNCl3 and Cl and then if you consider CH3SO2Cl this also adds this one separately or trans positions on iridium here or if you take CH3COCl these two fragments will be added after this bond is broken CCl bond is broken and if you take even this one so this will be added like that or if you consider this one this space and this is added and this is added separately and then they are all trans addition will be there. So with this now let us try to understand the different methods or mechanism through which one can perform oxidative addition reactions. I have shown here oxidative addition mechanism can be broadly split into two categories one is two electron mechanism so another one is single electron mechanism within two electron mechanism you can notice three different type of oxidative addition reactions one is SN2 one is ionic one is three centered cis addition. Of course the moment the term cis you see here you can correlate this one with we saw few substrates molecules in the previous scheme which are the substrate molecules which are added onto the metal in a three centered cis concerted manner is called three centered concerted addition. In case of single electron mechanism we can come across radical mechanism and also radical mechanism can be further split into chain and non chain mechanisms. So now let us try to understand these mechanisms one at a time to begin with let us focus our attention on three centered cis addition of course whatever the mechanism I have written here has to do something with the class of substrate molecules we are choosing you recall I made a statement that all substrate molecules can be divided into three classes one is non-electrophilic and the second one is non-electrophilic intact and the third one is electrophilic. So whatever the substrate molecules you are thinking that they can do or perform oxidative addition on a metal will fall into one of these categories. So now with this information let us look into the mechanism of addition through three centered concerted addition in which the two anion clients will go to cis positions on the metal center. So now that means the oxidative addition reactions can be classified into broadly three types one is three centered concerted additions nucleophilic oxidative addition of Rx that is polar molecules and radical pathways. So that means when we perform oxidative addition substrate molecules while adding follow one of these pathways. So let us consider three centered concerted addition here whether you consider HH bond whether you consider CH bond or CC bond all these additions are taking place in this type of mechanism they have very similar one also I wrote many other BH, SiH etc. Let me write a typical three centered concerted addition again considering Vaskos compound and simplest molecule H2 because it is very very vital in organic reactions. So start here iridium is in plus one state and this is a 16 electron species and start with it is a D8 species. Now this is 3 so iridium is in plus 3 and if you count electron it is 18 electron species and it is a D6 system. So that means this is what exactly happens here initially so this H2 before it is getting ready for oxidative addition it has to be pre coordinated to the metal center in this fashion and then it abstract two electrons from iridium to generate two hydride anions and they will be added so here oxidative addition is complete. So if you see here this intermediate this one we have D8 system we have still iridium is in plus one state and then this is an 18 electron species here this is an 18 electron species here ok this is fine. Now let us look into two aspects one is electronic aspect and another one is thermodynamic aspect so how this thermodynamics can explain formation of this two iridium hydride bonds by breaking one HH bond. So here you should remember one equation that you are all familiar with. So now we have to find out these entities from this oxidative addition reaction to calculate the value of free energy. So in this reaction first let us look into delta H0. So in order to calculate this one what we have to see is in the reaction if you see we have broken one HH bond and we have formed two new iridium to hydrogen bonds formation of two iridium to hydrogen bonds and then breaking of one HH bond we should consider here. For this one if you put the values that are available this is minus 16 kilo calories per mole or mole inverse ok. So now we have to calculate delta S of course if you look into that reaction delta S is large and negative because H2 gaseous one is disappearing and in that place we are getting a solid. This is very large and negative so this is minus 30 entropy units or this is equivalent to minus 125 joules per mole per Kelvin. Of course temperature is 25 degree centigrade. Now if we incorporate this to calculate delta G what we get is minus 16 minus 298 into 30 of course to convert that divided by 1000 what we get is minus 7 kilo calories per mole. So what does it indicate? If you look into delta G it is very small it is very small that means if the delta G value is anywhere between plus or minus 10 to 15 kilo calories with appropriate reaction condition one can think of reversing that reaction that means the way we add H2 through oxidative addition we can get rid of H2 through reductive elimination ok. So that means reaction may be made reversible under appropriate condition so that means by using an appropriate reaction condition we should be able to reverse this reaction. So that means if once if we get an idea that we can reverse the reaction then the catalytic application automatically comes into the picture that means here this reaction can be used so that means whether we are bringing back the same H2 or we are taking the H2 source to bring back the complex that was underwent oxidative addition that is a different thing ok always one can do that. What one can get from this thermodynamic calculations is this reaction can be reversible. Now let us look into the kinetics involved in this one of course here the rate depends on the concentration of complex as well as H2 substrate molecule here this rate constant is consistent with the concerted process you can see here this is the reaction coordinates I have shown in this one to start with where we have iridium one complex here and then of H2 is added it forms a transient species where it is still it is a neutral ligand binding through these two electrons between two H atoms and then and enthalpy here is for the this one is about 10 to 12 kilo calories per mole and then once oxidative addition is completed we get this iridium three complex here this is quite stable and the difference is about minus 16 kilo calories per mole. So that means basically any reaction in this one overall delta G is about minus 7 kilo calories per mole so this thermodynamic aspects tell us about the reaction and whether it is exothermic or endothermic and if the delta G of that particular reaction or conversion is well within reaching well within 10 to 16 kilo calories per mole it can be made reversible. Now let us look into how for example I had mentioned earlier you take a olefin and add hydrogen under high pressure in a closed reactor and then heat it for several hours but still hydrogenation do not proceed completely and probably you can get 5 to 10 percent of olefin converting into hydrocarbon whereas the same reaction one can do it in presence of a metal compass such as Vasca's compound in some cases you can achieve 100 percent hydrogenation at lesser temperature under less hydrogen pressure with ease so that means something conventionally it is not possible how that can be done using metal complex that means we have to look into this thermodynamic aspect as well as electronic aspects and also the bonding and how metal initiates breaking of HH bond it is not easy so that means here I will show you molecular orbital picture here this already I showed you when I was talking about the classification of ligands by donor atoms under hydrogen ligands. So here this H2 molecule having two electrons between two HH and then that interacts with the appropriate metal here so say DI system in this case what happens these two electrons represents the sigma bond between metal to hydrogen H2 molecule here and then it depends whether we retain this as a neutral ligand or how quickly or how slowly this is split into two anions to form two metal hydrate bond can be seen here in this case once a pair of electrons are donated from through sigma bond what happens HH bond would be weakened okay so HH bond something like this is there it starts elongated okay after coordination because now the electrons are not really deciding between these two to hold this H together H atoms together instead what happens electrons are moving towards the metal through sigma donation it is elongated now because of back donation sigma star is pulling electrons from one of the orbitals here it is say XZ we have taken one you can take XZ YZ or XY one of those things and to begin with this is the HOMO for metal highest occupied molecular orbital and now this is shared between sigma star by generating a five bonding and anti-bonding orbitals so now basically what happens we are taking out a pair of electrons between two hydrogen atoms through sigma bonding not only that one that weakens the bond on in the same time we are also adding electrons to the sigma star anti-bonding orbital so that means these two kinds of bonding affects HH and eventually HH bond is broken very nicely so this you cannot imagine when we are simply taking in a conventional reaction and high olefin and H2 when the metal is placed the moment H2 comes near the metal what happens electrons between two H are pulled and the electrons from metal is added to sigma star two kind of loss suffered by H2 results in the breakage of HH bond completely and thus oxidation would be completed so that means sigma donation from field H2 to sigma orbitals to metal orbital and then by back donation from metal orbitals to H2 sigma star orbital this eventually results in HH bond cleavage so these two and of course the next question is is it possible to still use H2 as a neutral ligand and by preventing its oxidative addition yes it is possible then we have to consider following aspects metal with positive charge and metal should be in higher access state or containing good pi acceptor ligands but cannot back donate well so that means when the metal is positively charged or metal has higher positive charge it is a reluctant pi donor and again metal is in higher access state it has electron deficiency as a result it is a reluctant pi donor and also if you have very strong pi acceptor ligands already present on the metal like carbon monoxide they take lion's share of metal pi orbitals pi electrons towards it so that less number of electrons are left for back donation to sigma star of hydrogen so that means in that case what happens metal cannot do back donation well to sigma star of hydrogen so stable eta to H2 complex can be generated so that means yes it is at wheel you can either stabilize H2 as a neutral molecule binding to metal center or you can split that one to generate two anions for completing oxidative addition reaction. I will show you a few examples here you can see in these cases here you can see HH bond is about to break here and whereas here HH bond is retained still H2 is coordinated in eta to fashion whereas in this case of course we have both terminal as well as hydrates and as well as molecular hydrogen binding so that means as I mentioned here it is 7 coordinate and 8 18 electron di hydrate this one so here these phosphines are not very good pi acceptors compared to carbon monoxide as a result what happens and pi acceptor ability of hydrogen is more or less comparable to those of tertiary phosphines as a result what happens it also fights for a lion's share in the back bonding as a result what happens more electrons come here and then HH bond cleaves so that whereas in this case we have better pi acceptor ligates here carbon monoxide which will take lion's share and leaves very little or no electron density for the donation from metal to H2 sigma star as a result what happens this H2 is retained so that means we have to choose what we are looking for whether we want to break HH to add oxidatively to generate two hydrides or we have we want to retain as a neutral that is in our hand we have to choose right kind of fancy ligands with sigma donor and pi acceptor properties and also suitable suitable oxygen state on metal so that we can always tilt equilibrium either way. So now let us look into CH activation this is one of the most important reactions in organometallic chemistry from the economic point of view and of course here when we try to do CH activation we can come across two type of activation one is intermolecular CH activation it is very rare and other one is intramolecular CH activation very common cyclometallation happens here and also this intramolecular CH activation is responsible in many reactions. Let me show you one such CH activation so if I want to perform CH activation here what I should do is first I have to vacate some coordination sites on the metal for that one best way would be to shine UV light that means you do photochemical reaction under this condition H2 is eliminated to generate this transient species now you can see reaction this species is ready for oxidative addition now we bring an appropriate molecule having CH bond an appropriate solvent this is a typical CH activation reaction here. This is intramolecular CH activation and then one can also think of intramolecular CH activation that can only happen in some cases where we are using special type of molecules or there is some way we can generate that kind of intermediates. So let me show that one that is considered a platinum complex we have these two groups of course before we perform any further reaction one of the tertiary phosphine should go and of course this will be an equilibrium situation you can recall this is called some sort of very similar to beta hydrogen elimination so tertiary phosphine is in solution now what happens this ME4 so this CH2 is there this will abstract this one so this CME3 will come out and we end up with this is one example for intramolecular CH activation. So now we should look into some aspects here whenever we perform CH addition retention of configuration takes place at C if CH bond approaches metal side on always in a three bond concerted addition always this substrate at approaches in a side on position something like this that is shown here something like this it is coming here so in this case it forms a three membered intermediate that is the reason we call it as three centered concerted addition and then what happens it breaks here and oxide addition is completed. So in this case what happens easier for all especially for aryl groups because usually with 3D, 4D, 5D if you go metal to aryl bond strength increases and also compared to alkyl aryl bonds are more stable because of reinforcement of metal to carbon bond because of delocalized electrons present on carbon more favorable for 4D and 5D metals because they have higher metal to carbon bond strength and intramolecular is common intermolecular is rare requires free side at the metal to occur. Now let us look into CC additions industrially important reactions there and of course the cracking of unstrained carbon-carbon bonds is still limited to hydrogenous reactions and no matter how much we talk about homogeneous catalysis in the present scenario the contribution towards total catalysis from homogenous catalates is only about 16 percent. The 85 percent of the catalytic reactions are heterogeneous in nature whenever we talk about petrochemical industries are cracking to generate a whole bunch of organic molecules still extensively heterogeneous catalysis is used and strained only sometimes CC addition is possible especially when we have very strained molecules where CC bond is very strained because of very congested 3 or 4 membered rings are there in it. Strained CC bonds undergo readily accelerated addition to remove the ring strain. One such example let us consider here so what I am telling is cracking means CH activation means you take something like this and then this is called really cracking so it is not easy to do this kind of reaction using homogeneous catalysis and even if you do it probably the yields are so low and if you master this one there is very good scope in industries to perform this kind of reactions at lower temperature especially with cheaper metals. If we can do something with iron cobalt or nickel yes we are making fortune. Then I was telling you about strained ring let me give an example how strained rings can break CC bond and that can be added on to the metal I am considering here well known complex here I am sure you are all familiar with this compound. So take this compound here metal complex in presence of at least two equivalents of pyridine and then this molecule here this is an example for strained ring adding on to the metal through oxidative addition. So let me discuss more related to this topic in my next lecture until then have an excellent time reading thank you for your kind attention see you in my next lecture.


G'day. Welcome to Bootlossophy. I acknowledge the traditional custodians of the lands that I live and work on, the Wajat people of Nungabuja. Now today I'm doing something a little bit different. Again I'm not reviewing any boots but I'm going to talk about the top five things that I do to take care of my boots. So on my YouTube channel and on my Instagram account which is at TechO, a lot of people message me or put a comment in my videos about how I actually take care of my boots. Now you know I am not a boot expert. I have grown to understand what boots are like in terms of makeup and how they're made and how to look after them but I am in no way a boot expert or a leather expert. However, when people ask me these questions like how do you take care of your boots, I treat it with a little bit of care because I do understand it because I'm on YouTube. People will look at what I say and maybe try and copy what I say. So I have to be really careful and I want to say to you that this is my in expert personal opinion of how I look after my boots and if you want to try them that's fine but you know a caveat this comes from me. Okay so let me go to the top five things that I do to care for my boots. The first thing that I do is to brush my boots regularly and regularly I think does depend on your use scenarios. How often do you wear your boots? Where do you wear them? Are they in dusty situations? Are they in gritty dirty muddy situations or are they just in on the sidewalk and going to and from your office and maybe driving? But whatever that is I think you still do need to brush regularly whether it's every two or three wears as in fact what Trickers recommends or what I generally do roughly once a week if I've been wearing them quite regularly. And the first thing I invest in is a good quality horsehair brush. A fine horsehair brush apparently the bristles get into the grain of the leather and can actually brush out the boots. A good horsehair brush like this will look after smooth grain leather primarily like this grandstone diesel boots in Saddle 10 and a good way of brushing a good vigorous way of brushing make sure that you're getting rid of dirt and dust and and the grimy kinds of things from particularly city life but maybe a dusty trail because dust in effect is one of the worst enemies of leather and therefore a boots because they can scratch in time they can act like sandpaper and really damage the leather. So number one is is to brush. How do you brush? I think a good vigorous brushing is important so you're doing things like that I mean take a look at how a cobbler does it or a shoe shine specialist. So a good vigorous brush like that right across the boot and I know it's can be quite difficult getting a grip and so on but a good vigorous brush will actually warm up the leather move the wetsas and oils around and in many instances particularly with smooth grain boots really give it a nice burnish. Now as for as sorry I'm talking away from the camera as for suede boots or roughouts or even wax suede I'm not sure that I use this necessarily I get something similar but maybe something with a stiffer bristle which I haven't taken out with me but I use that to sort of brush the dirt away from the from the welt area and maybe around the seams because what you want to do is again get rid of that dry dirt dust and gritty sort of stuff but a brush for wax suede or unwax suede you get something like this which is a suede brush and on one side it has rubber bristles so that you can actually get into the welting sort of clean them out it's got a little welt cleaner this bit here so you can even just put the teeth in it's rubber it's soft rubber flexi and then it has a set of copper bristles surrounded by plastic bristles and that's the sort of stuff that you can brush the suede to get the nap to lie down you can use it on wax suede there's no there's no problem with that you're not going to necessarily rub off all that wax but certainly when it starts to patina you can you can use it to clean it up so that's step number one step number two is to condition and protect your leather now why does leather need conditioning well it's skin it might be dead skin but it's still skin and I'm sure you've seen like really old leathers it's been maybe even left out in the sun and the rain and how it cracks and dries up and curls you don't necessarily want that to happen to your boots right you spent a lot of money on them so you want to make sure they're conditioned like your skin so that it remains supple and smooth and soft now what type of conditioners you use I think will depend on the types of leathers so in terms of a chrome excel in my Alan Edmonds Higgins mill I use something like Venetian shoe cream for a waxier leather like this Oak Street bootmakers trench boot in natural Dublin I use something a little bit waxier and I think you can do that by the feel of the leather this actually feels waxy whereas the chrome excel feels kind of like internally waxy and oily it's not necessarily sitting on the top and the saddle tan diesel boots which are from an Italian tannery by the lassie these are veg tan and they actually feel dry and soft but but not oily at all so these can take a kind of waxy shoe polish like Venetian shoe cream conditioner so in talking about conditioners my number one for smooth leathers is Venetian shoe cream it's a sort of creamy waxy conditioner that you can put on your hand so you can actually feel what they feel like when you sort of apply it to the leathers and smooth them in what you do with that kind of a conditioner is put on a thin smear maybe a second if the leather so dry it soaks it up allow it to haze up as it dries and then brush them off in the way that I showed you same thing for chrome excel I do exactly the same thing Venetian shoe cream and haze it up and then brush it off I have two balm like conditioners one is this old tin of RM Williams saddle and leather dressing and the other one is a is an Aussie favorite of mine oak wood leather care conditioner both of these are balm like and quite waxy to the touch and those I find lovely eucalyptus smell those I find really good for the wax your letters like the natural Dublin and you can also use these or or even the Venetian shoe cream on wax letters and waxed roughouts because it will protect it and condition it and not necessarily rewax it which you'd have to do with an actual heavier kind of wax coating and and a heat gun to sort of melted in so what next number three that's the cleaning and the conditioning and by the way if you do want to protect them with a little bit of water resistance the saddle 10 veg 10 for example is not particularly waterproof so when this gets wet it does have spotty dark bits which scare the crap out of you but as they dry then they come back to the normal but what you might want to do is put on a thin smear of a wax polish neutral and then just brush and buff it up so I'm sorry I was starting to talk about number three number three is when you're not wearing the shoes use shoe trees so I have three examples over here and I think any one of these would do this one though I treat with some caution because the way you use this is you push it into the vamp of the boot and then this curls up and pushes against the heel counter to push this forward if your levers or particularly your heel counter isn't stiff enough I find that this can deform your boot I am not a big fan of this one this is another popular one that you'll find is it's sort of spring loaded and as you push it into the boot and slip this bit on some of them have a different ending over here they might just have a wooden wooden sort of heel replica as you push it in push it on the tension is created by the spring and what happens is you actually push that a little bit wider so that it fits into the shape of your toolbox my favorite however is this one which is sprung that way so you can slip it in and push it in and it has a little little toe spring so that keeps it apart when it's actually in the boot whichever one you use make sure you use a wooden one specifically if you can get them they're a little bit more expensive cedar because cedar smells really nice it absorbs the sweat from your boots and it really creates quite a nice smell and antifungal effect in there so boot trees number four it's not actually a care process but it is a procedure and it is to rotate your boots you really shouldn't wear your boots every day two or three days maybe that's fine but then give them at least a day if not if you want of the two or three days if not a couple of days rest and put something else on so you should at least rotate your boots and preferably a different boot a day so if you have two pairs of boots go Monday boot one Tuesday boot two and so on and the reason for that is that leather is a living breathing thing so as your feet sweat in it and you might not realize this and that sweat does get absorbed inside the boot now if you wear that every day that could cause fungal issues but not only that that could really damage the leather because it gets weakened through the moisture so item number four is to make sure that you rotate your boots every day now finally step number five I call this I guess another procedure is once in a while you don't have to do it like every week or every month but once in a while whenever you pull your boots on inspect your boots what you're looking for are a few things one is look at heel wear now these are reasonably new so you can see there's no heel wear but you see the thickness of that rubber top lift this is called a top lift that's called the heel stack just there see that rubber top lift and how thick that is if these were an old pair of boots it is possible that you wear this section down because that's where you have your heel strike it's possible you wear this heel section down really really a lot and it's also possible if you're not careful you start wearing it into the heel stack the idea is to make sure that you understand where it's got to and before it gets to the heel stack go and see your cobbler I call item number five use a professional so make sure it doesn't cut into the heel stack get that top lift replaced the other place to look at is the top of the heel top of the toe because that's the other place that as you walk off wears out especially especially leather soles if you look at that can you see that I'm wearing the edge off and I'll turn it this way around might be a bit easier can you see that I'm beginning to actually get into the midsole so that's the outsole and then that's the midsole and that's the welt now if you wear your outsole off that's fine you can always replace that if you start to wear into your midsole that's problematic because it means you're going to have to replace the midsole as well as the outsole if you ever wore into the welt you're in deep poo because you're going to have to replace the welt and despite a good you voted boot being re-solable there are degrees of difficulty in re-soling your boots and if you get into the welt and you want to replace that that's going to cost you a lot of moolah so be aware of the where you can put toe taps on those brass things that you sometimes see try toe taps and I will put them on these very soon I did not put them on these new because one of the things I did want to do is figure out where the where was going to be because I don't want to put a toe tap then it starts wearing over here so wear it for a little while figure out where you're where you're aware is going to be and maybe put a toe tap on so those are the things I'd look for in terms of then getting to a professional to to fix those issues now another one these are casual boots and they're really brand new but the other thing you're looking at is maybe wear patterns and if your boots have been dry and you've ignored rule number two which is condition your boots and they start to dry and crack you might want to get that seem to very quickly because if you if you wear through and crack leather at the at the creases it you may not come back from that so the lesson in item number five is be aware what your boots look like and how they're worn and immediately earlier than later go into professional I say earlier than later because if you went and repaired say that top lift before it wears into the heel stack you're only going to pay in Australia probably about $20 if that if you then started to wear into the heel stack and what the cobbler has to do is remove the top lift and then remove the leather and the heel stack and replace the leather in the heel stack and then color the edge you know that's going to start costing you a lot so if you do it early 20 bucks that might well save you 75 80 $100 same thing goes for that of course because if you imagine replacing a leather sole could be quite pricey but then replacing a leather sole a leather midsole and a leather welt could be monstrous so earlier rather than later so there you have it guys a summary is that if there's any expense going to be spent on your boots do it now in small cumulative sums go and buy yourself a good conditioner which this one is actually quite expensive but spread out over multiple boots over multiple wears you're not going to have a problem spending that money and spreading it out as opposed to spending three times that much having to repair your leather and the same thing goes for brushing and wearing care okay so I hope you enjoyed that video please don't ask me any more how I take care of my boots I will keep you referring you to this video so you know what to do now click on the like button click on the subscribe button and take care and I'll see you in my next video


You know, I love how there's that quote in the the first movie EFAP where I was like, can we sacrifice Jay? And that's going to come out after the Jay debate. And people are going to think that came out chronologically afterward. People will know you're innocent or okay. Yeah, that's good.  Why are you making me watch this? Because I love you. Well, this is for you into making a new video.  Well, at least we'll be doing something.  None of us have any idea what this film has in it. Other than it's terrible. That's what that's what I've been heard and told. Now, Brie Larson, very well known for being extremely talented and may stars in a lot of great movies such as Captain Marvel, I think all four of us big fans, including Wolf. Absolutely. I'm such a big fan. I haven't even seen it yet. All I know about this film is that the premise is that she wishes to have she has a boring life, question mark. And then Samuel Jackson tries to sell her a unicorn. So yeah, excited would be the word to use. On the cover is that unicorn come all over her? Yes. So I need to see the cover. Three, two, one, go. Oh, Netflix continuously disappointing me.  And then it's like we forgot how to make good things. I think they're just wildly inconsistent. Yeah, they temporarily remember like with Hill House or with Reia Violet Evergarden. Oh my God, what kind of font is that? It's like Comic Sans V2 or something. I was about to say Comic Sans, but it's like it's not exactly Comic Sans. It's worse. It's somehow worse. A hive mind production. That's not reassuring. How do you get your face so dirty? You have to have painted that on yourself.  She's like, look how creative I am. How do you get that's like how you don't get paint on the back of your hands? She's like Van Gogh, only she hasn't cut her ear.  Oh, look, she's the special one. Look at all these prudes. Yeah, I'd be like. I was like, of course, we gave you zeros.  Hey, the unicorn just looks so bad. Oh, you get a unicorn. It looks alright, though. Yeah, the unicorn looks good.  Is she like a, it's a failed artist, isn't it? Isn't it? It's that. She's just misunderstood. She's likely to go with her. People don't like it when I do that. I see she's brought her emotion from Captain Marvel straight through into the movie. I'd actually kind of rather watch what's on the TV. I'm going to regret saying that now on you. They went to school. They went to school. They went to school. Ladies, period got you down. Stuck on the sideline. What? All my life happened. Why? I just skipped speech out. David Davidson, Jr. Now what? Full mastued into the channels. Just trying to figure out what I'm doing. What an accolade. She's an alcatism. How are you, Cap? Helps me see the unicorns. I have a plan, okay? This is acting. That was great. He didn't have to go the first take. Actor, director, Brie Larson. Pretentious.  Why would you do that? Can't miss, guys. She's sleeping on a treadmill. She's so special. I love it. Creative. It helps to get out. It helps. She gets out of bed. She turns it on and she shoots off into the hallway. I'm up. I'm like, I'm confused by this film because I'm not sure like the joke is that like, are we laughing at what we're supposed to be laughing at? Or like, I don't know. I guess he's quirky. I know. I'm not sure the commercials we're supposed to be laughed at, but... I'm not sure we're supposed to have laughed yet. I'm not sure that's what they wanted. This is a comedy, though. Isn't it? Like, I don't know. Quote on quote comedy. Is the movie's point going to be embrace your quirkiness? Don't let people say it's bad. Look, she's like a different person. A lot of, a lot of poorly written stories do this. Good stories tend to be about getting better, whereas a lot of these bad stories are about, nah, you were right all along. Yeah, like, hot rod. It's just, it's just so annoying. She's been pre-sloppery lasted stories, or I thought you were right all along. Like, is she, is she, she obviously has an illness, right? Like, is that what they're going for? Oh, yes. Like, this is not normal, this is behavior. Oh, that's Samuel Jackson invite, I'm guessing. Is it meant to be so absurd that it's not believable at all? PR and RPR. PR and RPR! What's that? I feel like we just saw that woman twice, the blonde one.  She can't help but be creative.  I'm guessing the point is that they don't emote here because they're all soulless robots. Did you google my name before you came here today? No. Because a lot of people with my same name have done terrible things. This is like a bad office space? Oh, the office, really. So we tell the kids an emotional quest? Look at this. What is that? Potion quest. He looks exactly like the kind of guy that would work at a power potion quest. I'd much rather hang out with him than Brie Larson. Sure, but he also raised Brie Larson. Yeah, well, no one's perfect. His real kids are at work. Got a letter for you. Is that Chris Stuckman? Yeah, what's up with that? Oh, White Power. Hi, Hitler. Did you guys get what it is? No, it was a horny son. Most people have to work here for months before they get the highly Hitler message.  Yeah, but her parents seem happy and successful and fulfilled. She's weird. Yep, but she's allowed to be weird. She sleeps on a treadmill, Mueller. That's quirky and cool. That's even less betting than Jared has. Like, did I dream of figure skating, but my parents wouldn't pay for the lessons? What is happening? What just happened? Why not wish we could fly? We can't, so we focus on what we can do. There is zero creativity in this company, and it is killing me. Your graphic designer, your job is to be creative. Yeah, it's pretty cool.  Oh, she's making it cool. I'm being expressive!  I mean, the first one literally just had a hand, right? Yes, White Power. What are you supposed to do with it? Hey, what are you still doing here? What? Do you know about a place called the Store? A place called the Store. I don't know what it is. Why do you have a lamp? I'm just gonna go get Office of Peace. How is it on? What is it attached to? How is that lamp on? Why did she bring that with her just to... What? Why did she bring that with her? It's just like it's trying really hard to be absurd. Like, you know that scene at the end of Hot Rod where they go away from the riot and then suddenly one of the characters just has a TV in his hands? Yeah. Yeah, like that's how you do that correctly. It's like they're trying to do that, but they don't know how. This movie was directed by Brie Larson, right? Yeah, which means that she has been in her own Hollywood world full of herself for so long. She can't remember what the real world is like. And she's trying to piece it together, and it doesn't quite... This is the plot of this movie. Like, this is a really meta-film.    What is the purpose of this one shot exactly? Oh yeah, you're right. This is one take. He's followed her up and elevates it. I know it's cut. What was the point of that?   I'm afraid to see what Samuel L. Jackson looks like. Oh God, he's all flamboyant.   What is this place? Who are you? That line. What is this place? Who are you? And I am the salesman. You can always rely on him to perform though. Yeah, that's the thing is that you're here. This is a legitimate place of business and the opposite of murder. What kind of business? Oh my God. What is that in his head? Why did he agree to this? Why am I here?  In this shot. He does kind of come off as a serial killer. I'm okay with that because oh Jesus. It would honestly make this movie so much better if he did turn out to be a killer. Gotta make sure your hand doesn't cover the label. Everyone see that? Coke? Yeah. Have you guys heard of Diet Coke before? It's so deliberate, isn't it? It's like she's underlying it. It doesn't smell like, hey? I know. Now I can't stop looking at the Diet Coke. Yeah. Oh my God. Every shot is the ice cream. Every single shot. Look at it. You can still see it. Oh, it's kind of coming. It's kind of coming now. Look. This is unicorn. Oh, God. It feels like happiness. What? It feels like happiness. A unicorn will love you forever. Why is she buying graph paper? Because this is what Brie Larson thinks normal people do. For her uptight, soulless job. She has to get grabbed. Oh no. Unicorns. Unicorns are everywhere. You can't escape them. It's not about office supplies. I have a girlfriend. What? No, that's not how I was going to ask. What? Oh, man. I just saw it. That's what that is. Yeah. But now I can see it. You're like, that's Brie Lawson. No, maybe that was not. I do.  I already have a girlfriend. I'm taking Jesus. People do think that they really see Jesus, right? And then other people say that they're nuts because Jesus isn't just walking around on this earth, but the people who do believe it really do. Who are we to say what's real or not real in the mind of the true believer? What? What? On that pretty flimsy argument right there. I guess that's some really great writing. How do you know that they'll love you forever? Oh, I guess she just came back. OK. First, there are certain requirements. Oh, dear.  But I know that's the case. You're not. Let's get to question two. Build a home worthy of a unicorn. Oh, it's just that man. He's really like a Virgil. What? OK. What does a Virgil look like? That name doesn't really sound like a hardware store guy type name. What? And like Virgil seems like someone I could relate to. Like Virgil is an outcast in school like me. Wow. Virgil is me right now. Jack or... Virgil encapsulates my spirit.  I'm sorry. I was kind of in a daze with this. It was really cute, but it's not this. What is happening? You're having a moment like me.  Is that on purpose? Well, this is what I mean. They're absurdly weird. Everything's absurd, though. To a degree that's not convinced, like it's not an absurd world. It's just got people and then specific singular items. You have to remember this is in the mind of Brie Larson. This might actually be how she perceives the world and people and conversations. Earlier, it's that the fame got to her head. She's been living in the Hollywood too long. And this is how she thinks the real world really was. This is like a film made by an alien. Why didn't she just go home and Google for that?  You're so progressive. Sorry. Yeah, and he's the dad from Get Out.  Oh, I like this. Wait, it really is the dad from Get Out? I'm confident it is. But I don't have anything to do with this. Well, no, I don't.   What do you mean, what? Oh, you're right. It is. Yeah, I told you and you didn't believe me. I didn't want to. Well, look who's laughing now. Wait, wait, how do we know the difference between thinking all black people look the same and him seeing the same person? Yeah, no.  I know that. I just like it. You know, it's a little sexist that you think so. Not every man who walks the earth knows that he built amazing things with his bare hands, OK? Wait. Oh, so you're implying that there are reasons why people might assign certain thoughts to people that isn't necessarily sexism for Eli? It's so weird that that came out of three losses writing. But are you trying to say something? There's tons of stuff out of this that we can use, right? She didn't write this, I don't think. She just directed it. You sure? Yeah. Yeah, I'm double checking now. What do you think? Is this what my job is?  That's what green people are meant for, for us. She didn't write it, no. Well, then I guess we can't blame any of the right on here, then, right? If you were the director, surely you are still kind of accountable for the writing, right? Um, all right. He's like, I built that for her. I love it. Touch it. Why do you keep saying to touch horns? Oh, it's so heavy. That's because it's full of love. What? So what happened to him? What happens to any of us that doesn't learn to love another thing? What? Unicorns subsist mainly on small insects and orphans. And from a financial risk- What? Why orphans? What is this? I will! What is? Why is he? And Crystal keeps asking me. There's a superstar. We are 40 minutes into this movie. I still don't know where it is. No, it hasn't been 40 minutes. Oh my god, it's felt like three days. What is the plot? I think that she does. She totally does. Why is everyone so quicky and weird and soulless? You can't have every character behave absurdly. How she pays for this. Right? Oh, yeah, we thought of the same thing. Did they mention? They must have mentioned that, right? Oh my god. Oh, she's just super annoying.  Yes, yes, thank you. Is she female, Jared? Is Virgil just like the only normal person in this universe? Guys, do you reckon it's going to be the whole process of building this thing for the unicorn and stand up for the unicorn? She falls in love with this guy and that's the true point. I do think your hypothesis is right though. I mean, that's what I'm guessing. You're not special! What is? What's her character? What is? You're not special. There you go. She's such a real down-to-earth girl.  Pumped! I'm getting hay. Hay! Hay! Oh my, my heart. Oh, what is her jacket?  That's fair. Sorry, she's in the Boy Scouts, but not really. Quick. Is that hay? Yeah. She's dying. Is she dying the hay for the unicorn? Is that the point? What are you guys doing in here? This is an intervention. Honey. I'm holding some hay.  Get out of my... I don't know how to be a grown-up. My parents think that I'm insane and I have no idea what Gary is thinking. Oh no, we're going to see him look close, aren't we? Is this like the audition tapes? What's left? What? I got to hang a magic rainbow on my kitchen or some shit? I bet she felt cool saying that. Sacrifice an orphan. Hatred in your heart. What is it with you and orphans or eggs? They're pretty neat when they're dead. That's like hugging, right? I'd rather have a kid who dies of super-cancer when she's young than adopt an orphan. I have loving energies and this unicorn is going to love all of my energies and if she doesn't, then she can just go back to her sad little forest, okay? Get it? Because she's really angry saying that.  Huh? I like it. What is happening? It's a twist going to be that he is actually a man. Maybe he's the guy, also the dad, also the weird guy at work. Everyone is everyone. It's all in a head. Bill Bands with him rocking back and forth in an insane asylum. Rocking back and forth, naturally. Why did you guys have to come here? Whatever. I swear I didn't know I was pregnant.  What is he dialogued anymore? Here's the thing though. Oh my god, it's Riley Dennis. How about you? They're clicking. They're clicking instead of clapping. Did you notice that? I'm getting a unicorn. Okay. That's the look of a dead man. That's the look of we failed. I don't want you to worry about this because this is nothing that you're going to have to handle or take care of.  No one ever told her the unicorns aren't real. She read all those books though. Is this supposed to be funny? Because it's kind of like sad, isn't it? Just watching these parents just sad. You would be sad. This isn't funny. The tone of the movie, we're waiting for jokes, but now it's like, oh, this is your... Oh. Why are you just more like Kevin? Okay. We don't want you to be more like Kevin, all right? That is not the goal. We just want you to be more like Kevin. Wow. Can you imagine? At least the dad is honest. Can you imagine? Well, I am sorry. We are not your dream parents. Okay, honey. That's... Going back to the circle of truth.  We're in the last third now. I feel like we're on a train, but I don't see a lot of contracts. We're an hour into this movie. That was a second act more point. I was about to say, yeah, I think we're in the third act now. I genuinely don't know what the plot is, and we're almost done with the movie. Sabrina? The Teenage Witch? Hey, I'm good. She's going to quick up the Hoover, dude. The Hoover is life. The Hoover is the unicorn. The Hoover is love and life. Oh, look a girl on her face again.  Oh, no. Oh, no. She could do it right away. What? I have a hold of confetti. What? What is she wearing? Just my clothes. She's a leprechaun. Did she make that? Showtime. Let's go. Thanks, Chris. Time to go. Oh, Mike. Where are you helping me? Just hard cuts are they're getting fired, please. Missing back. Oh, no. Oh, I love her back. Back. No. This is a midlife crisis movie. What is this? What? It's all over the floor. This glitter and the colors of our drawing. Security, please. Chris Stockman, why'd you do this? I want one of them to withdraw a gun and be like, you need to leave. Jesus Christ. Magical rainbowness of it all. Person alive as a dream. Everybody needs. That is not a response to her question. Yeah. Yeah. Even if they're all grown up. This is not a vacuum for your house. This is a vacuum for your soul. Oh, Jesus Christ. I see my problems. You're right. I should vacuum my soul out sometime. A little bit on your conference. I wish I could vacuum up all the haters. You know, because a lot of them think that I'm not smart. That actually does it. That's it. Chris, it's okay, dude. You know, come to think of it, that might actually be something that Chris Stockman would say. Wow, he said to Zod snap neck. So what do you think?   Pull the rose. Hey, how could defy it? They know so many things. Yeah, only there is something that I am wearing. Glitter on your eyes. I know things. It gets in your food. And I have a secret. Why don't you make me watch this movie? Tell me what the secret is all about. You know what? You guys expected it to be so good. That was the whole reason. With us, frog old. We thought it'd be so funny, but it's more confusing than anything else. I don't really, yeah, like freak out. It's not, you know, it's so bad, but it's like, it's not. Put that on them. It's confusing bad. It's not like terrible in your face. It's not like wish upon where it was like so bad. Every scene was a mystery box of happiness. Every scene was a loot box. I should point was a great way to start this series. Virtual is the audience. But they are. Notice how Virgil's acting right now. Like this is how a normal human would react to this news. To this movie. Look at his face. Oh, is it going to be like, is it going to be like empty? It's going to be. Yeah, I'm, I'm confident of that now. It's all in your head. And then it'll be revealed. It wasn't actually. What are you wearing? I don't know. Just wait. She's appropriating Frogle's culture. True. Yeah, Frog. Yeah, I got it. All right. You don't get to decide when I'm off the hook. I decide when I'm off the hook. Bye, Virgil. We drove together. What is this film? See, there's a little bit left. Why didn't they notice the hay beforehand? But I thought you already said that the guy tricked us. He would have had stuff here anyway. Kevin fell in the river with his life last time. No. Yes. He did? Oh, yes. And yes. Oh my God, this dialogue. He fell in the river. No. He fell in the river. He did? Yes, he did. He did. He fell in the river. He fell in the river. Yes, he did. He fell in the river.  It's because this is one shot again. They, they couldn't survive on real dialogue. They had to have like robotic and systematic ones to check off a list. The most grown up thing you can do is fail at things you really care about. ELJ. What? No, it's about accepting responsibility for your decisions and emotionally growing. It's about being responsible. Yeah, I'd say accountability is a big part of the thing. Care about things about development. Is this her arc? She just completed her arc. What is her arc though? Where is she that she wasn't before though? Like, she's in the same position that she was at the beginning of the movie. She's got no job. She's not in art school or whatever. Virgil no. Virgil. How did she know? Why was she not aware of this? Whoa. Whoa. By the way, when it rains, this whole thing's fucked. And there's a giant umbrella above it. We just can't see it. Yeah, but this is like really holding on to the past. It's kind of weird.   She looks down. They're both standing in like a pool of gasoline. It's like you're living like a 12 year old in a fancy way. This is like Captain Marvel. She's looking at all the pictures and explaining her entire history to us. I know. I'm stupid, but he says that the unicorn is there. It's right here. This guy could be dangerous. I don't want to wonder my whole life. There are so many better movies that have that line. I don't want to wonder what it would have been to accept that thing. She doesn't want to wonder if she didn't get to get her unicorn. Oh, what is he wearing? Why didn't he go with it? Because he can't see it because he doesn't believe it. Whatever. It's fine. Just go with her anyway. We're packing up. Time to relocate. What if Virgil's like strung up by his entrails in this room? That would be a good ending. We're not going to get that. Why does this smoke on the floor? It's evaporated. Come on. No, no, no. That's even worse. She's going to knock us out with it, right?  She's going to not go through with it. Not anymore because I've got Virgil. I've grown up now with the horse thing. The horse is the best character in this movie. All right, then. There she is.  You're just going to walk away. You're not going to take a picture. You're just going to walk away. I found this letter. Oh, she's the one who needs the unicorn. Yeah. You'll turn out. Come on. What is going on? What is going on? This is like a brothel for crazy people. I don't even understand what really happened. What did she learn? And what's that other woman supposed to do? Just walk out into the street with a unicorn? I was surprised. Written by Samantha McLean. No, I've already clicked out. That was awful. That was the one of the worst movies I've ever seen. It was just. What did you say? It's so confusing. It doesn't make sense. Crazy person lives in a world of it's also crazy soulless people and doesn't get along with anybody. How did 59% of people like this?  I am confused. What's the plot still? She wants a unicorn. Then she doesn't get the unicorn. Because she learned she doesn't want a unicorn. I don't know. That's the most worthless movie I've ever watched. Also, apparently that woman was already on the way. So I guess she. What if she got there? And she's like, I really, really need this.  It's my unicorn. And Sam Jackson puts another one in Amazon. Like, hey, you just have to wait a few days. We got prime. So the unicorn is real. Right. Question mark. Well, I mean, virtually. The unicorn is called cloud. You watching the credits. The unicorn is like actually in the credits. No, I'm not watching the credits, Fringy. I'm not watching the unicorn store credits.  Yeah. Yeah.   I know what Brie Larson is trying to get across here. But I don't know if I like it. Wish upon had the same kind of painful dialogue as this movie as well. I noticed that just the super flat and just progressing the actual conversation. And it feels like an alien wrote it as what humans say to each other. Well, the only people that were even decently acting, I thought, were Virgil and Gary playing these characters that they...  I mean, I guess the parents were okay doing their thing. They're weird. That's the thing. It's hard to separate the acting from what are they supposed to do with what they're really doing. Yeah, I laughed like three times.  Like, joke. I mean, there were clearly spaces there that were meant to be like, this is where the audience laughs. But we were like, hmm.  That'll look next time, Brie. Don't have a next time, Brie. Don't let there be a next time.


Okay, very good morning to everyone. It is Thursday 5th of September. I hope everyone is doing well. As you can see to the side of me, quite a significant headline overnight and a decent move in financial markets across asset because as we know despite all of the ongoings with Brexit, definitely from a global perspective, across asset, the China US trade talks are still the number one kind of story in town. Let me just quickly transition my chart so you can get a feel for what's been going on and obviously when the news broke You can see here on my centre charts. It's the Nasdaq future. So kind of like one o'clock I guess early Asia-Pacific session really strong move in global equity futures across the board However, we have started to fade already and I'll get into some thoughts about why I think that is occurring But quite an injection into the equity market overnight Let's just have a look actually. I've not looked at the S&P on a slightly longer time frame Where are we at the moment? So remember yesterday? We were looking at this S&P We're looking at that kind of range that had been containing a lot of the price action over the course of Much of August and we've now broken above that in fact finding a little bit of a flaw for a further push on so a meaningful technical break as well from some of the top side of the range that we had been in over the previous couple of weeks as We go back to the headline We could move back into the latest phase, which is that China and the US are to hold trade talks in October Despite the fact that this apparent mistrust is continuing. So if you remember, we've had quite a quite a breakdown in the dialogue of late Particularly given the fact that on the first of this month. We had those tariffs come into effect That was despite sources suggesting that China were looking to again delay that Trump not backing down Implementing those and as such then we've had a couple of days of some pessimism about what's going to happen next So quite a sharp relief, I would say but ultimately I do think going to be particularly Short-lived and the reason for that and why I think that is because this graph really It's like graph. It's more of kind of annotated with some of the latest trade headlines that we've had so You know moving from left to right tariff increase as talks start to slow China announces increased tariffs in response The market was depressed at that point. So then out comes the Trump G phone call markets rally G20 truce market rallies Market hits all-time highs and then Trump comes out and says okay more tariffs So this is that negative feedback loop that we've looked at before And then we've gone through this kind of different phases to the point where we are at the moment They agree now to have talks at a low level, but looking to just you know pick up the dialogue again in October so Point being I think markets are now Fully up to speed of what they think about this type of thing. It's likely to be short-lived It's likely to break down again before then going positive And so I think when you get these kind of relief rallies on the back of these Unscheduled headlines like we had last night not forgetting it comes out during the Asia-Pacific session So generally speaking volume liquidity is a little lower tends to exacerbate some of the price movement I mean that's a decent move of close to a hundred and Well, I was just having a look a hundred pips or so in the the NASDAQ hundred ticks. So it's pretty punchy But the idea being then after that fast money the speculators have booked their profits Reality kind of kicks in and it's not that this is going to be a Holy new development in finalizing a trade talk and We know that it's subject to change quite rapidly and so after that fast money moves being being handled Markets just pull back and reverse course. So I don't think this is really Something to get overtly excited about or anything to reinitiate more medium-term positioning It's just a you read the part of that move last night or you weren't and that's probably how I'd look at that So the big story this morning certainly is that Tea notes down nine ticks gold down three so moderate risk on on the back of that comment But as I said already starting to fade to some degree moving on then Brexit plenty of course going on from yesterday MPs took another step towards delaying Brexit Beyond this 31st of October Deadline to 31st of January of next year and they rejected Boris Johnson's call for a general election. So Put together couple of picked out some headlines from a research report I read this morning to try and summarized the situation As neatly as possible as to what's happened and where do we go next? so a couple things two points to start with first one and Parliament built on Tuesday's vote by deciding with a majority of 28 327 to 299 to pass the bill to delay Brexit until 31st of January 2020 to prevent this no-deal scenario happening at the end of next month The three-month delay must be used then and this is what this legislation means to try and pass the withdrawal agreement rather than a second referendum and this is what's Kind of set Twitter a light last night and Sam came in this morning and he was asking me So you're telling me Labour and opposition want Boris to go back with Theresa May's deal. So how does that make sense? But yeah, I mean that that's kind of exactly what they want They want to try and pass the withdrawal agreement and this is obviously something which they'll be talking about in terms of what concessions can Come of that as well in the negotiation point being then from here For it to be written into law In terms of the vote that happened yesterday The bill now needs to go through the House of Lords before Parliament is suspended sometime next week for prerogation so again the way the process works is it goes everything is heard and comes from the lower house of Commons the MPs the parliamentarians It then needs to be ratified by the upper house the House of Lords for it then to go back down into the House of Commons Apparently that House of Lords sign-off Will come by 5 p.m. On Friday in terms of timing that could mean then that there could be political business happening over the weekend It's not wouldn't be unusual The second point because I said there's two Point two is the MPs voted against the Prime Minister's call for an election on the 15th of October 298 of MPs who voted for the election fell 136 short of two-thirds of MPs 434 is the magic kind of marker required to sanction an election two-thirds of Parliament They were 136 short so well short Mainly the Labour Party opposed it because it doesn't want to grant an election Before the law that was passed in the lower house yesterday that needs to be ratified by the upper house to come back to the lower house In the coming days gets written into law only then Corbyn has said that he would be willing To put the backing towards then an election Now that in itself is quite interesting Because the Prime Minister, you know the idea now that the press is making about Boris Johnson's had multiple defeats It's the first time our Prime Minister have had so many defeats so quickly and it's in his premiership His suffering serious strategy blows I Still don't I still think that's very sensation list because ultimately the Prime Minister here could try to force Using an amendment to the fixed-term parliamentary act or if someone puts forward a Motion of no confidence in the government not forgetting Boris doesn't have a majority at any more So realistically if it wasn't for the strategizing of the opposition this really should be a vote of no confidence at this point But either adjusting the fixed-term parliamentary act or a vote of no confidence Both of those require a lower bar of just a simple majority Half of MPs to grant them so half of the House of Parliament plus one Not two-thirds which has been the process of what we've had which failed yesterday What that would mean then is that basically based on the vote last night You would 20 you would need 28 MPs would need to change their minds so remember for the The sanction of an election yesterday. It fell short by 136 moving to a simple majority would mean then you only need to convince 28 of those to change their mind not a hundred and thirty six and then you've got your election. So for me personally, I don't think an Election now is completely off the table. I just think that it's just being delayed perhaps by a Period of time. I still think a general election is going to happen at this point a general election itself From a market reaction point of view It's a little bit Interesting as a topic to debate because it does have different opinions The one thing that you can see quite clearly from cable sterling dollar is that we've appreciated quite sharply Obviously this has been going on for two consecutive days now the more that parliament has wrestled back some control Now that you've had basically this Passage through the lower house. It's highly likely this will get passed by the upper house and get go into law I don't think there's really much to stop that from happening. So delaying Brexit or Reduction in the risk of no deal has happened. And so the pounds got appreciate Some people are looking at this as well and the fact that if there isn't an immediate general election Well, that lowers the risk of potentially a labor government a labor government Is seen as negative for the pound because they would be anti-business and high taxation Which would promote then weakness in the pound. So the fact that there's no immediate election the pounds actually rallying I actually think this is more down to the idea That it's just offsetting some of the immediacy of the looming Cliff edge of October 31st so Yeah, I mean, where do we go from here? Well, we've got to wait now for the the upper house to go through these these processes So actually I don't although we're gonna get a lot of Brexit coverage and comments. I don't actually think We're gonna get the big move in the pound now until possibly late Friday Weekend for the reopening of Sunday markets Because then if it's all goes as per how it's shaping up It should get approval what has been discussed and voted upon last night That should then get ratified into law, which then means that we go down to those two And suggestions a tweak an amendment to the fixed-term parliamentary act by the PM Which then goes down the route of looking to get over the line for a general election Or you have this vote of no confidence in the government either way an election still looming In that scenario Okay enough Brexit talk for the moment Moving on this is one of the other important headlines We looked at markets yesterday and we were talking about the fact that generally the economic environment has soured somewhat u.s. Economic activity epitomized by the Contraction for the first time in what three years in the ISM manufacturing space Was meaningful this of course comes after some big jobs data or comes ahead of some big job data We're gonna get today and and tomorrow on Friday for non-farm payrolls It's all coming as we had tried to position ourselves for how the Fed are gonna Communicate to us with the summary of economic projections in September 18th for the next big meeting the other interesting key part though that's helping general I guess stability in markets despite some of this very short-term volatility is that China Really have committed now to doing whatever it takes and more of that rhetoric coming out overnight In the form of China signalling further stimulus coming as economic headwinds rise their economic data Also continues to be fairly precarious and so Measures and and verbal intervention of this nature is I think warranted but the point being is as long as they continue to Really commit down this course of action. Well, then I don't really see any risk of a big sell-off in markets As long as trade talks are being managed of which we're now in a positive phase as long as China commits To doing whatever it takes and what they've been talking about here is more broad in addition to targeted Reserve ratio cuts triple our cuts, which I've done multiple over recent years The reason they say broad and targeted they can either do large or small firms and and so on Also, they're looking to accelerate the issuance of so-called special bonds in China By the local governments. These are specifically meant and geared towards paying for infrastructure spending So that's that kind of way of China looking to kind of prop up the market in a sense Continue their economic growth ambitions And so that in combination with all those other factors and the easing of monetary policy globally that's going to be happening That's why and why I've been saying in recent weeks. I'm not so Panicked about this inversion of the yield curve at this point certainly not in the near or medium term and So, yeah, this is still happening Goldman's just coming out research report this morning saying about how this meeting that the Chinese officials had yesterday was the strongest signal yet of easing to come The other positive thing happening at the moment as well is let's just eliminate that German headline for the moment But Italy announced their full cabinet team, obviously you've had this PD five-star hookup now Which is alleviated tensions and we've seen that response in the decline in Italian yields to record lows in a 10-year space so re-tightening of the BTP bun spread and Italy have done quite interesting thing in the appointment of their new finance minister and What the headline suggesting here is a peace offering to Europe? So Roberto Guelateri as far as Tomasso has told me is the correct way to say his name has been appointed to the new cabinet now Why is Guelateri so important? Well, he's a veteran European lawmaker He's more known in Brussels than he is in Italy, but that is the beauty of what this Italian appointment has meant appeasing the European bureaucrats when you've had a highly fractious relationship and You've got a very difficult budget to manage in the near term. That's a that's a good move I think by the the strategy team in a new government makeup during his second term in European Parliament Guelateri became the head of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee He actually played a leading role in steering the European Union's financial integration agenda. So he is an absolute You know kind of a linchpin of that kind of ideology of Eurozone integration and so on so perfect person to act as a bit of a middleman to appease Europe but also, you know, I am slightly surprised that they've gone that far with the politicians in In Italy, but perhaps this was the you know, this is the way forward but as far as markets are concerned This is a big positive development albeit No real meaningful impact right now this morning because it's been largely priced into markets All right other than that Bank of England. I just just a quick note on this They've basically Mark Carney spoke yesterday. You remember he was appearing in front of the Treasury Select Committee And he's basically scaled back Estimates for a worst-case Brexit GDP You can look at this I think two ways for one the the actual thing that he said was because of the Brexit planning That's happened. It's going to offset some of the negativity of the Ramification of a no-deal Brexit if that worst case was to materialize so instead of GDP in our country Decreasing by 8% it's now forecast to decrease by five and a half percent. So still a pretty catastrophic hit to GDP But not as bad as what was table before Politically, although this isn't what's intended. I do think it's quite interesting You know, it kind of lessens the ability for Boris if we go to general election campaigning to use this idea of Project fear if what Mark Carney is saying when actually is that it's not going to be as bad as what we thought he kind of Removes some of that power a little bit from Boris. I don't think that's the intention But that's the repercussion of what he's saying So I just thought that was quite an interesting headline The other thing we've had this morning is I've talked about positive China trade talks with the US I've talked about some positivity for the pound in the short term as parliament has gone through these Relevant procedures and at least in the short term has been positive positives in Italy. However, Germany. I'm afraid not so positive You've had German data this morning German factual a sink raising the risk of a recession It came in at minus 2.7% in July expectations were for minus 1.4 So almost twice as bad as expected manufacturing slump drags on trade tensions Brexit uncertainty Yeah, it's this is one of the big issues obviously facing the eurozone And this is one of the key reasons why economists if you remember yesterday in that Reuters survey Fully expect the ECB to cut rates I think they're meeting 13th of September or coming up in the in the next couple of days going to cut even even some Being priced in for 20 basis point cut and also the commitment to the recommence of QE to restart then in October in October so Yeah, is the market reacting to this? Well, this is a very important point I think your interpretation of news is that no the market has not reacted to this the euro is not sinking The DAX isn't falling through the floor The DAX is just pullback in kind with all the other Stock futures after some of the profit taking after the jump overnight on the Chinese headline as we discussed The point being is that this is a continuation of a trend It isn't anything particularly new Albeit granted it was worse than expected But if you feed a negative headline into an already the negative setup then basically you've met expectations So yes, this plays a bigger part in the mechanics of the overall decision-making of monetary policy to come But as a near-term trade decision I wouldn't be taking this as a as a sign that you need to be really changing positions at this point Calendar-wise today Very much a US centric session. Obviously the Americans have not seen the latest US China headline Because that came out about 1 a.m. London time So do be mindful of that when we get into the US North American crossover kind of 11 11 30 few hours time this afternoon Then you've got ADP employment Change this of course the precursor to non-farm payrolls tomorrow This is what ADP has looked like over the course of the last couple of readings and actually after a depressed number Back in May it's been recovering the last print at 156,000 of which is pretty close proximity for what non-farm payrolls Is expected to come in at as a headline tomorrow. I think it's 160 What is ADP expected at today? 149 got a range of 110 to 175 so do look out for that at 115 always important We then get the final readings for the services PMIs US factory orders durable good revisions So the factory orders definitely more important as is the ISM non-manufacturer PMI and also looking out for the employment constituent of that report The ISM non-manufacturing PMI has been decreasing Obviously not near to contraction and not expecting a contraction in the consumer the more service led sector Remember the consumer part of and consumption in that respect in America has been holding up its manufacturing activity That's been decreasing But the employment constituent will be quite key as well to look out for Other than that weekly all infantry numbers just a reminder because of the Labor Day holiday on Monday in the US The oil infantry data is not at 330 as usual be at four o'clock so I'll get Sam I'll pop the API numbers in the chat and Sam can go over when I swap with him in a second and he can go through those But speakers couple Bank of England member Tim Rayro speaking at an ECB research conference later this afternoon a couple of BOC members after the right decision they had yesterday You've also got the Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay taking questions in Parliament this morning Could be quite interesting if he says any specific updates But I wouldn't be expecting too much to be honest in the way of market moving headlines coming out of Barclay and that's it so Going to head you over to Sam. I wish you a good day ahead hopefully That was as clear as I can make it with the Brexit situation. I know it's not completely straightforward what I will do is Pop all of that summary that I went through Onto the chat so you can review it in your own time if that helps. Okay guys. Thanks very much All right, so everyone's doing well start off Some a quick look over the currency pairs and the euro actually just Strengthening a touch as the dollar weakening across the board the pound as well just enjoying a bit of movement here Let's have a bring in of the euro to start and you can see this how important that the level is we test up at this Area one two three times in the last Well, how are we talking there since seven o'clock last night? And was also a key point at the back end of August before we broke down As you can see on that last trading day of the month So key level multiple tests could be your line in the sand as good as now really So keep a close watch on that above there, then you really just looking towards the the higher point of that day of the 30th I see Find my longer term euro charts. We'll have a quick look on This one here and you can see when we were talking about the That trend channel coming in the retest of that obviously would be still a fair bit to go But certainly the the break I don't know if I've got this absolutely perfect, but the breaker that happened on the 30th So retest of that whole area 105 110 53, sorry, I should say 105 I wish We'll be keeping a close eye on that certainly over the coming days if we can come towards it I think will be An interesting reaction all around that area and you can see of course was the the low of the first of august as well, so the euro Perhaps going to be interesting over the coming days euro pounds as well before we come on to Cable market you can see just knocking on the door of another interesting level So the euro across the board had some really interesting points the Euro pound you can see was until we broke down late last night was the low of one two three sessions Going back to the 27th of august and we're retesting that now So the the bears will obviously want to defend that and the bulls above Well, I wouldn't see anything really stopping a decent move towards the r1 there What's the pound going to have to say about it? Well, you can see as well with the dollar weakness shall we call it? We are Now up on the day after making a new low Guess when we we lower this time frame down and you can start to see we're perhaps does You know while the trend won't be absolutely perfect. You can see from the the high that we made yesterday We're just almost well with your are testing that that level now the third test of it So again like the euro at a pretty key junction Not just from the top end of the trend, but also this one here Which you can see after the break down around seven Just this whole area where we're testing. Let's call it 122 46 on the futures An important point So close watch on that the euro obviously with that key resistance point as well What happens in these markets will Pretty much be Determined by what happens right now Perhaps for the the rest of the morning. Obviously, we've got that us Data set in the afternoon which could drive things But certainly in the morning you imagine the euro and the pound to to drive The the dollar elsewhere Oil just to start off with I've got a nice Trend line I think to to be aware of and just the way oil can move Regardless, whether you think, you know, it's going to go higher or lower from this Again, it's that line in the sand. You've got the Nice top end of this trend here going back for 13th the 21st 29th I'll be keeping a close watch on on that should we come back up to to test it Around what be then the the high of the day as well Which is also nice resistance from the last day of august So really keeping a close watch on what happens around 56 50 56 64 To to the upside and then to the downside of us if we were to break the low of the day, which has Been tested a few times the pivot and just below you've got again It's more of a zone from the lows of the 28th and 29th to the highs that we had back on that the first trading Day of the month so the second Coming in around 55 17 to 42. It is a big zone But certainly, you know with the the DOE as it's a point that I would Be aware of for that for that coming in today and of course Thursday The DOE not as usual Wednesday slot because of Labor Day back on Monday And just having a look if we just drop that down to 15 minute You can see the 930 candle was to the downside. However, we did recover The crude number was a build of 400 000 so We actually had an expected draw of two so it explains the the move to the downside however Cushing and gasoline and distillates were all draws and in some cases like distillates was You know better for for price than not as we had expected A build there so bit of a mixed reading I guess For the move to the downside can understand that as the last few apis have seen price push on On that Tuesday and confirmed Wednesday, so be interested to see what happens. I mean, are we going to break out the the range of you know, 56 to 56 64 before the the four o'clock slot Time will tell but certainly that trend line and the zone below something to to keep a close watch on S&P as and mentioned in the early hours breaking higher and you can just see the importance of The the level we've been talking about for what seems like The the whole of august we're above there now So keeping a watch what happens if we can come back to to retest it 2945 is really that that That level which was the higher the 30th and also the Resistance point that we had back on the second of last month So it's certainly somewhere I would be be keeping a watch on and again thinking about the The close of the the date as well We have a quick look at the percentage away from all-time highs where we're trading right now We are 2.5 percent, which is nothing which is nothing. I mean literally could make that this week. I wouldn't expect it to As you'll remember I said I would not want to be long s&p unless we are above this level We are above this level now. So I'll be keeping a close watch on 2945 for sure Gold you would have expected to have come under a bit of pressure from that move and and it did To an extent but still relatively elevated nowhere near the the move That s&p saw for This market to the downside. Yes, we drifted lower overnight but nothing too concrete However, we are just making and this would have been just recently You can see here the third test of that trend and like oil the way we can move here and gold On brakes of these trends is is very very Well can be very aggressive So keeping a close watch on that starting on the low of the date and the low from half six And now just now as well coming in on the futures around 1555 No, 1552 don't know where I got that fight from so keeping a watch on that a break to the downside I'll be targeting 1548.4 if it holds and you know why not gold is still attractive It seems you know, I'll be looking for for price to get to work towards the pivot But arguably the more important level you can see here Is 1559 on the dot was the higher the third morning of the fourth Resistance later that day and then you can see again twice already On this morning. So really key points. I would say there 1548 1552 1559 as well to to keep a close watch on quick. Look over the Dax You can see it breaking out of the top end of that range We've already had the the retest of a level and it's acted pretty well as a as a point of support So especially if we can hold there An s&p managers just to drift a bit lower for Those that that lie that area that would be That would be a good pointer to get in but certainly it may be as a guide for this morning We're keeping a watch on what happens there for the Dax and like the gold with Its resistance point you can see another well respected technical area on the Dax here Was the low that we had around Five o'clock retested that as well. So the Dax being relatively technical which can't always be said For that market as usual any questions, please do let us know some interesting points where we're trading right now Most notably in in the main currency pairs the euro and the pound and then the euro against the pound using that pivot level and retest of those lows s&p Now we're above that that key resistance point What is going to stop us getting to those all-time highs the high that we had was the low that we had Back on the 19th so understandably people taking profit there Are we about to go into this new range just 2.5 away from all-time highs oil? Of course keep an eye On those levels mentioned ahead of the 4 p.m Data release and we'll see some nice us numbers to come out should be a decent session ahead Of course ear to the ground for any brexit related comments. Hope you all have a good trading date And any questions, please do Let us know


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