Dr Shirai, mae'r profesor yng Nghymru Ceylau Universityyn Tokio ac yng Nghymru Sgolaeth Llywodraeth Llywodraeth i'r Banki Llywodraeth. Felly, mae'n gweithio'r cyfleoedd y Banki Llywodraeth i'r Banki Llywodraeth ar 2011 a 2016. Felly, mae'n gweithio'r Banki Llywodraeth i'r Banki Llywodraeth i'r Banki Llywodraeth i'r Banki Llywodraeth i 2013, ac mae'n gweithio'r profesor i yn Cymrius Ysgrifesolol Educational! Mae'n glwscirio'r llyfodol 11 o'ch cerfodydd y cyffredinau yn Gweithio'r Cyffredinol Cymru, gyflymio Ysgrifesol Educational!� gref, ac mae gweithio'r Cymru, i'r llyfodol Llywodraeth i'r Banki Llywodraeth i'n gweithio'r llyfodol, ac mae'n gweithio'r cysylltyn, dros mae'n gweithio'r cyffredinol. ..y'r aelod i'r buswys. Yn y cwmhlu yw'r rai i'r hynny'n ymdill. Yn y cwmhlu yma yng Nghyrch Fyrogyntaf, yw'r aelod yma yng Nghyrch Fyrogyntaf. Yn y cwmhlu Fyrogyntaf, mae'n gwybodaeth yn y Cwmhlu... ..y'r aelod i'r cwmhlu a'r aelod i'r cwmhlu... ..y'r aelod i'r cwmhlu a'r aelod i'r cwmhlu. So, when by European and American Central Bankers, when they say about Japan, they also say the deflation, so Japan has a deflation problem, so we should avoid such deflation. If you look at average inflation this is between 2,000 to 2,000 PKRs just before this quantitative quality of the measure was introduced. It was minus 0.3, minus 0.28, so minus 0.3. So it's not very serious deflation spiler. I hope that you will not misunderstand. Y page yn ychwanegwyllwyr. Y page yn ychwanegwyllwyr, y byddwyl yn ymlaen. Byddwyl yn 0%. Y byddwyl yn 0%. Ychwanegwyllwyr wedi'n sy roles. Ond y cyd- y pwysig yw ni dweud yn eu cyfnod. Er, mae'r haf oedd yr aelod yn y ddech chi. Y pwysig yn y ddech chi. Ym overhead cyd- y bobl, yw'r adnod gyngor am yr ysgrif viadd. Ysgrif ydydd hwyl ydwyd, a'r wahan yn y gbldd, Cyd wedi bod ydy'r 1.0, mae'r 1.0 wedi bod ydy'r 3.6 golygu. mae'r amgar yn ym無edd gen乎 pa phuhridol.  Felly, rwy'n meddwl yma'n ei wahanol. Ond efall, mae'n meddwl i'n meddwl i bach, Something called model in place. So I guess it doesn't see it as a use it. But in Japan we intentionally introduce a model in place style which is some of-not in circulation and mobile apps collect accounts at Central Bank. So you can see both Central Bank's asset, model in place, and they increase together at the same place. Mae'r ddweud oherwydd mae'r cadwysgau a phrygu o'r pwysig yw'n rhanio'r rhaid o'r blaenmar. Yn ymwybodaeth yma, ac rydym yn bwysig o rhaid o rhaid o'r blaenmar, ond nid o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r blaenmar, a mae'n cael ei ddweud o'r ddweud o'r bwysig o'r blaenmar, ac rhaid o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r blaenmar. Now here if you are interested in data please look at it. I just wanted to show how similar is the Bank of Japan's policy, both by various landscape asset, negative interest rates introduced and also concessional, then we program right through Trump. We have a very similar tools. The problem with difference is that the Bank of Japan purchase ETM, B means the other state in this interest, which is easy to buy stocks. So that makes different things. And also Vojar doesn't buy local government bond, of course we don't buy super bond so there are some differences. But basically, it's very similar between Vojar and ECB approach. I think we are learning from each other. I know it's easy to get a lot of insight from what Vioge's policy and so on does. So now I'd like to show you what Vioge has done since 2013. Now, Mr Crowder became governor at the end of March in 2013. Now I spent two years with previous governor, Shirakawa, and three years with Crowder. Now it's very important to explain to you what's happened before that. So Abe and the LDP, his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, used to be opposition parties. And then in December 2012 they won, so Abe became prime minister. And during this election campaign, he said he will introduce 2% inflation target. He will introduce massive monetary easing and W3RO. So the first RO is this massive monetary easing. Second RO is a massive fiscal stimulus. Third RO is economic growth strategies. So already he was planning to introduce 2% to the Bank of Japan. So having said that, so he became prime minister at the end of December 2012, January, under the joint declaration between Bank of Japan and government, that Vioge introduced 2% under previous governorship. Now at that time there was a program, because even though Vioge said okay, we will introduce 2% inflation target, but the monetary easing conducted under Shirakawa's governorship was not enough. There was an asset purchase program, but it's never very massive. So no market participant believed that Vioge can achieve 2% with existing framework. So then Mr Krouda came, because Mr Krouda, and there are 2 deputy governor, one is Iwata. So Mr Krouda and Iwata are long-term critic of Bank of Japan. They are always writing a lot of books and saying that Vioge has never done sufficient monetary easing. So they also said, before they were nominated, that they can achieve 2% in two years. So with that confidence, I think they were selective. And so when they introduced them under Mr Krouda's governorship, we decided to introduce QQE. And so when Vioge introduced this monetary easing, so the Vioge said we will try to achieve 2% as soon as possible with a time horizon of about two years. And the Vioge will continue this QQE as long as necessary to achieve 2% target in stable money. And they hear what I said earlier. So we used to have a policy rate target, like a federal fund rate, but we switched to the monetary base. It doesn't mean the Bank of Japan believed in quantity theory of money, like a clear relationship between monetary base and inflation and inflation expectations. It wasn't that. But I know some people believe in that. Like Mr Iwata, deputy governor, he's a monetaryist. So he was a strong believer of quantity theory of money. But like me or Mr Krouda or others, we don't really think that there is a very clear relationship between monetary base and inflation. So why we introduce monetary base? Because I think we really wanted to give inflation to people that Vioge this time was very different. Because in the past Vioge did a lot of monetary easing, but it could never achieve the goal and it could never get a little overvalued yen. So a lot of people, not domestically, but from abroad and then foreign central bankers, they all criticize Bank of Japan saying Vioge have never done enough. Maybe Vioge is not really want to generate inflation. Maybe they want to have a depression. So a lot of people criticize. So I think we really need to introduce something very dramatic. So we wanted to show that we really want to increase quantity. So as a symbol of quantity, we thought that it may be easy for people to understand if you set the target on monetary base. Because monetary base is a sum of notes in circulation and commercial banks visa placed as central bank. So it includes notes in circulation. So even in public, probably if we use quantity target, probably they understand okay this time, Vioge will really increase lots and lots of liquidity so that would be inflation. So that was an original idea. So in order to achieve this monetary base target, initially the target was 60 to 72 yen. In terms of US dollars it's like 550 to 650 billion annually. That's quite a lot. So in order to achieve monetary base target, the Vioge need to, Bank of Japan need to buy Japanese government bond. Because in Japan we don't have a very big hope and bonds market or asset back security. I think similar in ECB. After all the most and the major asset that ECB or Bank of Japan can buy is government bond. So basically a Japanese government bond is most important asset. So initially to achieve 60 to 72 yen on your expansion on monetary base, the Vioge decided to purchase 50 trillion on government bond. The remaining will be filled out by purchase of a treasury bill and in the end stocks 1 trillion and a real estate investment trust 30 billion. And then we purchase Japanese government bond all after 40 years, the maximum. Then the problem happened from April 2014 when this consumption tax hike was incremented from 5% to 8%. Demand started to drop. Problem with the decline of demand was greater than Vioge expected. In the meanwhile oil price started to drop from summer of 2014. So we started to see inflation decelerating and inflation expectations also started to decelerate. And as a central banker we felt that we should do something to improve this situation. So that's why in October 2014 the Vioge decided to expand this monetary easing. So monetary base target was increased from 60 to 70 to 80 and the Japanese government bond purchase increased from 50 to 80 and also increased EDF and lead. So it was very massive. So how big is 80 trillion is? Right now Japanese government net issuance of Japanese government bond annually is 50, 50. So Vioge buying 80 so means that we are really taking, Vioge is really taking JGB from investors. So you can see how big this program is. Then last January Vioge decided to introduce, they are not interested. While we introduced it I think you remember there was a global uncertainty. China economy started to fluctuate from summer 2015. The Chinese stock price started to collapse. The exchange started to depreciate. So also January last year the Chinese economy had a lot of fragility. All the price started to drop. So emerging economies also started to become very fragile. In the meanwhile Deutsche Bank program, local profitability issue was closed up. So in Europe the banking sector concerns started to rise. So globally there was a risk off environment. Under that situation Vioge felt also there is no program in regards to domestic demand. But because an external environment is deteriorating, if we don't take any action maybe situation gets deteriorated. Maybe corporate sector's mindset will start to deteriorate. So that was the main reason why Vioge decided to introduce never limited interest. By the way I voted against it and later I will explain why. And to be honest I was right. I know I was right. So Vioge in January introduced QQE with negative interest. So then they said they will maintain QQE with negative interest as long as necessary to achieve 2% target in stable manner. And then they said that Vioge will not hesitate to up monetary easing in three dimensions. Quantity, quality, and quality interest. Meaning that if it's necessary Vioge is willing to expand the annual pace of monetary base above 80. So it means JGB purchase above 80. And quality means ETF stocks are built. So Vioge is willing to buy more in this class if necessary. And in deep interest rate. That was a message. Now this negative interest rate is very different from yours, ECB. Because ECB you apply minus 0.4% interest rate on excess reserves and deposit facility. So basically you have a one-day assistance. In the case of Japan we decided to introduce three types. Existing plus 0.1% and 0% and minus 0.1% to avoid the burden on the side of banking sector. Because if we charge everything, if we charge negative interest rate to all balances, then the commercial bank have to pay a lot of money to us. Minus 0.1% means they have to pay to central bank. So Vioge won't be able to avoid such a burden. So it will just complicates the real system. Last July Vioge double the ETF purchases 6 trillion. Actually this will cost us potential central banks risk, which I really want to discuss with you. Because no central bank in the world is purchasing stocks. So what is the implication of the central bank buying such a large amount of stocks? And how big is it? So now annually Vioge purchase ETF of 6 trillion. Whereas Vioge's allowances and capital reserves is only 7. By the end of Mr Krodd's governorship, which will end in early April next year, Mr Krodd's governorship end, by that time the Vioge's holding of stocks will be 20 trillion. If the central banks allowance and capital only amounts to 7 trillion, what does it mean? In case stock prices go down, there will be very significant central bank risk. So this is my one issue I want to discuss with you. I know easily discussed about the possible purchase of stocks, but they decided not. But only Vioge is doing it. So this is one contentious issue. A very interesting happen. The Vioge had a monetary policy meeting on January 29th, Friday, I remember. So Friday when they announced it, market initially reacted positively. A positive reaction means in the central bank's general, it means increasing stock prices and exchange depreciation. So that exactly happened. And following working day, which is Monday, so February 1, continued. So stock prices continues to go up, the end continues to depreciate. But from Saturday February 2, things reversed significantly. It's just like Trump victory last year had a reverse impact in the market. Stock prices and exchange are the same thing happened. So from Saturday all the sudden, it started to appreciate. It continues to appreciate up to June 27th, in Japan on June 24th, Brexit referendum. At that time, the end of the rate went below 100. That was a bit too much. So stock prices also continues to go down. So the market reaction completely changed. So in the middle step, what was the problem, what was the why people reacted negatively on this negative interest rate? Now in fact, so I summarized as follows. First of all, I think Vioge had a communication problem. Because under Shirakawa and also under Kuroda, Vioge always rejected the idea of negative interest rate. So even when the ECB introduced negative interest rate in June 2014, of course, foreigner would say, why not Vioge introduce negative interest rate? But Vioge strongly rejected the idea of negative interest rate. Why? Because I will tell you, in the case of Japan, we could see the negative impact. So also Mr Kuroda kept rejecting the idea of negative interest rate. So when it was introduced all of a sudden, everybody got surprised. And I guess it took a while for foreign investors to really understand and grasp the idea. So once they started to really know what it means, I think they started to react negatively. Because one problem is remember, Vioge used to say, we are willing to expand quantity. And if they can do that, why not expanding quantity, monetary base, rather than introducing negative interest rate? So it was not consistent with previous communication. That is one issue. The second issue here is the difference between ECB and Japan. Now, in case of Japan, negative interest rate really works against the asset budget program. I talked about this with ECB. They didn't get it for a while because the situation is totally different. In the Euro area and in Ireland, you have a negative interest rate. But it doesn't work against continuation of asset budget program in Europe. But Japan, yes. Where the difference come from? I can give you an example. For example, Ireland, there is a government bond. Who owned it? I hear that most of the government bonds are owned by foreign investors, foreign commercial bonds. And a domestic commercial bond does not hold that much government bonds. Same in Germany. More than 50% of German bonds are owned by foreigners. So in other words, ECB and Central Bank of Ireland, they can purchase easily the government bond from foreigners. In the case of Japan, it's different. We have a huge Japanese government bond, sizes over 200% of GDP. Huge market. But interesting thing is, 95% of this outstanding Japanese government bond are owned by domestic people. And it's highly concentrated. The investor base is highly concentrated. It's basically owned by commercial banks or institutional investors like pension fund insurance companies. Now, why commercial bank holds so much Japanese government bond? Here comes the difference. For example, Ireland, when we look at Ireland banking sector, loan to deposit ratio of the total banking sector. Here I hear that it is 100 over 100. So that means banks can lend. They can extend credit to the household and corporate sector, but Japan no. For always in Japan, even before QQE was introduced, there is no much demand for credit. So on average, this loan to deposit ratio is about 60%, 60%. So lots of deposit are growing, but very limited demand for credit. So there is a 40% gap. So the Japanese government bond used to fill out this gap between this deposit and the loans. So the Japanese government bond is very important for commercial banks because there are no much alternatives. And mega banks, they can invest abroad, but the small community banks, they don't have a skill to invest abroad. And they don't know how to hedge, so basically they need Japanese government bond. And so Bank of Japan has to buy the Japanese government bond from domestic people. So then you have to really look at domestic people and incentive. So BOJ needed to give incentive to commercial banks so that they are willing to sell the government bonds to Bank of Japan. Suppose I'm a banker, say Tokyo Mitsubishi, and I have so much Japanese government bond now. So if I keep this Japanese government bond until maturity, I can get up to this coupon income until maturity. Or I can sell my Japanese government bonds to Bank of Japan at higher prices so I can get capital gain today. But what I will do with this cash after credit demand is little, but then usually the banks will keep those money at the deposit, current account of Bank of Japan. So traditionally the Bank of Japan used to pay plus 0.1% interest, so I could sell easily my Japanese government bond to Bank of Japan. Then at least I could get 0.1% interest. So positive interest rate was really incentive for the BOJ to continue this smooth functioning of asset purchase program. So therefore it's totally different from your countries. So we knew that. So that's why we always reject this idea naturally. When the negative interest rate was introduced to the margin, it means that to the newly increased current account. Of course people would not sell it, right? Because why should I sell it if I just get minus 0.1%? So naturally it worked against the smooth operation of asset purchase program. I knew that. That's why I oppose it. If you look at Bank of Japan's statement, public statement issued in January 29th, out of nine, four people descended, and three people are regular descended. But I was different because I always worked very closely with Mr. Clodda and Bank of Japan. I'm one of the very important theoretical founders of QQE, and so we had a very close relationship, working relationship. So when people saw my name, I hear that everybody was quite shocked. Of course I didn't want to vote against it. I know they didn't want me to vote against it, but I didn't have a choice because it was inconsistent, logically, conceptually, or from operational wise. There was no justification for me. So as long as we could continue asset purchase program for a while, we should not have introduced that. That was my idea. So banks, what happened? Later I will show you data. Banks, you know in Japan, the credit gross is not so much, 2% to 3% only, and too many banks. More banks than Europe. We have too many over banking sector, lots of competition, so already lending to deposit interest margin was so low, 0.8%. So if we introduced negative interest rate, the lending rate would go down first, so that naturally interest margin will squeeze more. Already this is foreseen. So the direct impact on banks will be very similar. So that's why I voted against. There are many other issues, one more issue. What happened to household? Household, they didn't realize the difference between interest rate, negative interest rate charged on commercial banks, and the retail deposit rate that they get. So when the negative interest rate was introduced, I hear that lots of households got worried. So they made a thousand of points to local banks and asked what would happen to their deposit. Then there's a household survey which shows what do you think about interest rate. So after negative interest rate, many people say interest rate is too low, so actually it really didn't help to increase aggregate demand. Other than that, household got worried. I think similar thing happened in Germany. So to summarize, I think negative interest rate was not really working in Japan, consistency issue, I already told you. And this is the system, it's far more complicated than ECB. So this is another reason why almost nobody understands the audience is complicated system. So it is very complicated. So this is an interesting one, source rate. It's the lowest if we compare Japan and European banks. This margin is lowest among the country economies which introduced negative interest rate. Another issue is that this new country became too fraught. If interest rate is almost fraught after 10 years, how can banks get money through maturity transformations? And also institution investors felt this is too low because at one point 10-year yield went down to minus 0.3% and everybody said that is too low. It is not good for institution investors because return is low, but also discount rate became low. So the pension liability, present value of pension liability also expanded. So corporate safety pension fund also had a problem. So actually a lot of people started to complain. So last September, the BOJ introduced illegal control. Why? I think there was two reasons for that. One because since January that when the negative interest rate was introduced, there was a growing criticism from banking sector and insurance industry about the adverse impact. So I think BOJ realized maybe interest rate went too low. So by introducing the payment of 10-year yield at 0%, they can stop this further decline in a 10-year yield. At the same time, they can prevent overshooting. So I think it was inevitable for Bank of Japan at that point to introduce this payment system in order to avoid further cuts in the yield curve. That is one reason. I think most important reason is because of the growing anxiety in a financial sector and I think BOJ needed to correct the side effect caused by negative interest rate. Another problem is that remember BOJ buy 80 trillion Japanese government bond? That is a bit too much. If BOJ continues to buy it, what will happen to Bank of Japan? Nothing there. So everybody worry about it. I think it's growing stress is generated in a Japanese government bond. So BOJ really wanted to move away from volume approach, like monetary base, to interest focus. So that's why they shifted from monetary base control to income control. Essentially they abandoned the volume target. But here comes the problem. There's a lot of problems now. You know, when Bank of Japan announced this system, all central banks, I believe, understood as follows. Okay, this must be the following case. The BOJ may find it increasingly difficult to purchase 80 trillion Japanese government bond. So they need to move away from volume. That's why they switched to yield card. I think this is the interpretation of ECB and many of the central bankers expert in the world. Here comes the problem. So that is the interpretation of central bankers. That is the interpretation of myself. But here is a unique expression here. At the same time, in September, the Bank of Japan introduced the following expression. It's called inflation overshooting committee. So monetary base will expand until inflation exceeds 2% and stays about 2% in stable money. I thought that they got out of monetary base target, but the monetary base is here. So continue to expand. There is another expression there below that. There is a BOJ project to expand. BOJ expects that the JGP purchase will continue. 80 trillion JGP purchase will continue until the end of GCU. Then people got confused. We thought you got out of volume, no? But you are saying you will continue 80 trillion until the end of GCU. How can you do that? Because technically, if the Bank of Japan target 10-year yield, the amount of JGP purchases has to be endogenously determined. You can't target volume in yield, right? So if you really shift it to the volume target, then you don't need 80 trillion. Because we don't know how much we need. So this created confusion. So right now, if you talk to the hedge fund, they often talk all the time on TV like Bloomberg and CSMBC. Yesterday I saw one of the guys from hedge fund was talking about Japan. BOJ is different because they introduced 0% interest rate. So whenever there is upward pressure, they always buy more to excess downward pressure. What does it mean? Meaning that there are many cases that BOJ has to buy more than 80 trillion in order to maintain 0% tax. So then what will be the BOJ's intention? BOJ really want to move away from massive purchase. Maybe want to have a tapering because it's getting harder to do it. Or BOJ really want to target 0%. If it is all, then BOJ should be ready to purchase Japanese government bond as much as possible and it should not hesitate to purchase above 80. Is that the real BOJ's intention is to clear? So there is a confusion. So among central bankers they all understand the way I did. But investors interpret totally different way. What was the impact of this QQE? I think I can say at least the part of Japan was able to correct over-variation currency. It used to be very high. It used to be very high and now at least we got out of over-variation. So that was good. And also stock prices used to be too low also that we collected. So that is too good thing, the effectiveness of BOJ's policy. But other things, for example, let's look at credit growth. This is a credit growth. Do you see any pickup? No, right? So then the QQE despised the very large scale was not able to generate higher credit growth. You see, nothing changed. Instead, the deposit was growing more because after a negative interest rate, some money market funds were not able to make money in the interbank market. They closed it so the money shifted to deposit. So ironically, loan to deposit ratio dropped further on. If you look at GDP, over the years, average GDP growth was 1.1%. Which was okay. But 2012, one year before, QQE was introduced was 0.9. So slight improvement. Most importantly, this potential economy growth is 0.2%. I hear that Irish potential economy growth is 3%. I agree. 0.2%. So our economy has a growth. So without increase in potential economy growth, I think it's very difficult to see a sustainable impact on a conventional money very easy. So this is, I quickly went over the issue. Here are the issues. What have we learned from our conventional money policy? First, I think we can say that our conventional money policy was effective in terms of lowering short-term interest rate and long-term interest rate. Both in nominal and real-time. Same in Japan, same in Europe. No doubt. So in that sense, I think central bankers did a very good job. How about impact on asset prices and exchanges? I think we can say those are quite effective, especially in the initial stage. But after that, the impact are mixed depending on the investor sentiment, the investor's view about monetary easing and global economic condition. For example, last September, when the Bank of Japan introduced this EU control, there was no impact on stock prices and yen. But when the Trump had won during the US election, all of a sudden US interest rate started to go up. Then, German interest rate, Irish interest rate all increased, but not as much as US. So of course you had an interest in Malaysia. But Japan, pegging the 10-year yield at 0%, so this interest differential was the widest. That led to the speakers' change in their perception. Before, they bet on the US appreciation, but after Trump's victory, they switched to the US depreciation speculation. If you look at hedge fund positions, before elections, their positions were long in yen, but after that, they switched to short in yen. So it really depends on how investors think. So now all investors say, oh, BOJ's policy is very good, it's very effective. So there's no doubt we can really bet on the yen depreciation. A lot of hedge funds say, yen dilabed can go to 130, some people say 140. To me, that's crazy. I think households get curious about that. We need that depreciation. So that is how hedge funds do in circulation. So it depends on the hedge fund. If the hedge fund thinks it's effective, they will bet on that direction. But if you know, they change it. So I think nowadays, the impact of unconventional monetary policy really depends on how those investors feel. So it's not really clear. I don't think we can generalize that. What about the impact on credit growth in everyday demand? The effectiveness, I think we can see some effectiveness, especially in the initial stage. But after that, I think once unconventional monetary policy stays too long, people forget. People even do not question the sustainability. They just take it for granted. So low interest rate becomes normal. Then people do not really pay attention. Then effectiveness starts to gradually weaken. That's what's happening in Japan. I think what's happening in Europe in general. So in terms of the impact on everyday demand, I think, and it's not that effective if we do it too long. Instead, the problem is that if we continue unconventional monetary even for too long, we don't see a positive impact. But instead, instability problem in March, financial instability problem, like a distortion, profitability, banking sector and so on. So there's a greater financial instability risk rather than benefit. So that is, I think, the problem we are seeing now. Now, what about the impact of negative interest rate? I looked at Sweden and many other countries in detail. My conclusion is that the adverse impact of negative interest rate depends on one, cash prevalence of society whether the country use cash a lot. And two, low gross. If the low gross is high, the banking sector can offset decline in profitability caused by negative interest rate. Also a degree of competition in a banking sector. If you don't have a lot of banks, then maybe you can charge higher lending rate. And also the existence of alternative resources. This is an example. Not in circulation as a percent of nominal GDP. That is Japan. You see, means Japan is a very cash-oriented society. So after negative interest rate, there's nothing circulation starting to go up even more. So there was a shift from deposit to cash. But nothing happened in Sweden. Sweden and this ratio is broken because that economy is highly technology-oriented that commercial banks do not have any cash at bank. People do not use cash. And that's such a kind of society. Just because negative interest rate is introduced, people are not willing to go back to cash-based economy. So there's no Syria negative impact, but the Japanese people. So depending on the country's prevalence of cash, also depending on the credit gross, if the credit gross is not high, then bank cannot get profit. Unresolved issue. Based on my understanding about Japan and Europe, and also the United States, I think we have the question whether decline in short-term and long-term interest rate always could sink. Traditional textbooks often say if the economy is not strong, we can lower interest rate to stimulate. But there are many cases that the decline in interest rate goes too far. That will no longer generate any strong political impact. I think that is the one that's going down. But the question is what threshold leads to such a situation? I don't know clearly, but I think academics really can talk about that. This conflict I already talked about. Another issue I really want to talk with is perhaps should listen. Central Bank are taking too much of this as a result of unconventional monetary policy. When they start to normalise by raising interest rate, I think that some of Central Bank in Europe area, possibly Ireland and Germany particularly, also definitely Japan, may face deficit for a while, and maybe they use up all the reserves and then they will have a negative equity. Can we, under that situation, if you know that someday the Central Bank have such kind of problem, the question is should Central Bank still continue to do unconventional monetary policy to achieve 2% target? I think this is one issue I have not solved yet. So final issue is what would be the best combination between fiscal policy and monetary policy? If you look at Japan, the debt is 250%. There is no sign of very strict fiscal discipline. And if we just now say, this is now the government time, expand fiscal policy, I mean, can we really improve the government fiscal discipline? Maybe we might undermine the fiscal discipline even more. So this is quite an important issue. So I stop here. I have a discussion with you.


Now, as howling winds echo across the snow-covered reaches of the wild northwest, the Quaker Oaks company, makers of Quaker Pop Wheat, and Quaker Pop Rice, the delicious cereal shot from guns, in cooperation with the Mutual Broadcasting System, present by special recording, Sergeant Preston of the Yukon. Woo-hoo! Woo-hoo! Woo-hoo! It's Yukon Gain, swissest and strongest lead dog of the northwest, breaking the trail for Sergeant Preston of the northwest out at police, in his relentless pursuit of lawbreakers. And Gain! On your knees! Woo-hoo! Woo-hoo! Woo-hoo! Gold, gold discovered in the Yukon, a stampede to the Klondike in the wild race for riches, back to the days of the Gold Rush, and the adventures of Sergeant Preston and his Wonder Dog Yukon King, as they meet the challenge of the Yukon. Our adventure will begin in just a moment. You can play a vital part in the defense of our country. Radar is a wonderful invention, but it cannot completely eliminate the chance of foreign aircraft slipping through undetected. To prevent the possibility of such an unwelcome surprise, the Ground Observer Corps has been established. This volunteer organization is composed of civilians who are spending a few hours of their spare time each week sky-watching. They have been taught how to do this job by Air Force personnel who also supervise the observer's time on duty. Today there are 49 filter centers located in 27 states to which observation posts report. All these centers and posts are manned by volunteers. When the Ground Observer Corps extends its coverage to the rest of the country, many more sky-watchers will be needed. If you are a teenager or older, and roll now for service in the Ground Observer Corps in your locality, write or phone your nearest civil defense center today, or write to Ground Observer Corps, Air Force, Washington 25 D.C. Help protect your country. This message is brought to you as a public service. It was quitting time at the Woodruff Mine. Doug Chandler had just come into the owner's office. He didn't have much hope that old Philo Woodruff would grant his request, but still it was worth a try. Well, Chandler, what is it you want to see me about? I'd like to ask you a favor, Mr. Woodruff. The favor? What is it?  Yes, yes, I know that. His league was broken into fours, wasn't it? That's right, sir. It never mended properly. He's had to huddle around on crutches ever since. Then? I received a letter yesterday from Dr. Hollis at the Good Samaritan Hospital in Dawson City. He wrote to a specialist in San Francisco and described the case to him. And the specialist wrote back that he believes Eddie's leg can be fixed. Well, I'm glad he did. But what's all these leading up the room? Well, to send Eddie back to the States and pay for the operation, I'll need a thousand dollars. I was wondering if you could advance me that much. Advance you a thousand dollars?  I know it's a lot of money. A lot of money? That's money. There's a man hand you're earning two hundred a month. A thousand dollars a month's to five months' wage. I can work it off by next spring, sir. I'll even pay you interest on the advance. The answer is no. All right, Mr. Woodruff. Sorry, I bother you. One moment, Chad. Yes, sir? You say you're sending him to Dawson? Yes, sir. I suppose you like to see him as often as possible. Naturally. Well, give you a chance to do just that. I only sent a message to Inspector Conrad. Mother, please, headquarters. You can deliver it for me. And while you're in town, you'll be able to visit with the other boy. Thanks. Very much. What do you want me to leave? First thing of my morning. Stop in at the office. My clerk will have the message for you. All right. Incidentally, on your way out, ask the clerk to step into my office. Get him to a big pen and paper. Yes, sir. Bert Heflin, the mine company clerk, was seated at his desk, just outside Bylaw Woodruff's office. Say, Bert, you know, Mr. Woodruff wants to see you in his office. He said to tell you to bring pencil and paper. Okay. Dr. Chandler said you wanted to see me, Mr. Woodruff? Yes, full of a chair, Heflin. I wanted you to take a letter. A letter will go to Inspector Conrad at Mother, please, headquarters in Dawson City. My dear Inspector. That evening, after leaving the mine office, Bert Heflin went to an isolated cabin, which was located some distance from the mining settlement along Gold Creek. Oh, it's you, Heflin. Hello, Ray. Is Duke here? Sure, come on in. We're just having a game of poker. Duke Gurney, a brawny, hard-bitten individual, was seated at a table with a third man called Louis. Howdy, Heflin. Hello, Duke. Hello, Louis. Come on, sir. Well, find out when that gold shipment is leaving. Yeah, Friday morning. $50,000 in gold, that's what. $50,000 in gold? Yeah, how about that, boys? I told you this deal was waiting for us. Oh, we found out something else. That is what? Old man Woodruff sending a letter to Mali headquarters in Dawson, asking for a constable to guard the shipment. Why? With a Mali guard and a couple of drivers, it'll be three against three.  Yeah, he's right, Duke. This job's not going to be such a cinch after all. We, shooting down a driver is one thing, but shooting a money is bad business. I don't like it. And neither do I. Relax, relax. I've got an idea. This may be a break in our favor. What do you mean? What are you talking about? Eflin, you say old man Woodruff is sending a letter to Mali headquarters? That's right. Who's taking the letter? A mind hand named Doug Chandler. Has he left yet? No, he's leaving first thing in the morning. All right, now listen, here's my plan. We'll trail this guy Chandler and gun him down when he gets there. Early the following morning, Doug Chandler set out on the journey to Dawson City. He didn't know that he was being trailed by Duke Gurney and the other two gunmen. Several hours later, Doug haunted his team and prepared to cook his midday meal near the rim of a steep walled canyon. The three crooks approached cautiously through a screen of trees and watched him as he built a campfire. Which one of us is going to plug in Duke? I'll handle it. Good shot. Come on. A moment later, the crooks reached the campfire and examined him. Is he dead? If he's ready, someone will be. Well, let's see if he's got that better on him. Here it is. Inspector Conrad Northwest Monarch Police. What do we do with this guy? Leave him into the canyon. Come on, help me carry him. All right, he'll move over. Now what? Get them grubbed by ourselves and then push out to Dawson. When we get there tomorrow morning, me and Louie will hold up somewhere on the outskirts. You'll go into town and deliver the letter to Inspector Conrad. Sergeant Preston was returning to Dawson from an extended patrol. Soon after nightfall, he approached the spot where Doug Chandler had been ambushed. King was running ahead of the team as loose lead. Suddenly, his nostril caught a faint odor of smoke. Puzzled, the great dog slackened his pace and swirled off the trail toward the rim of the canyon. What's wrong, King? Something down there in the canyon? Sergeant walked over to the spot where King was standing and peered down into the canyon. Far below, at the base of the cliff, he saw the smoldering embers of what seemed to have been a small campfire. In the glow given off by the embers, he could just make out the figure of a man lying in the snow. First, boy, there's a man down there. Certainly doesn't look as though he's sleeping. Hello down there! The man didn't stir. We'd better go get him, King.  Turning his team around, the sergeant headed back toward the mouth of the canyon. It was nearly an hour later when he arrived at the spot where the man was lying. King, I know this man. He's Doug Chandler. Shot in the back. See if his pulse is still beating. Yes, there's a spark of life left in him, boy. Perhaps we can save him. After the sergeant addressed the wound, Doug finally began to revive. Easy, Doug. You're in bad shape. You feel strong enough to tell me what happened? I don't know. Stopped to eat. Someone shot me. Just to throw me off the cliff. Apparently you landed in the snow.  Yeah. I came too for a bit. Dragged myself out of the snow. And it's to break off a few pieces of brush and start a fire. And I passed out again. Where were you headed? Carson City. Carrying anything valuable? No. Just a little other for Inspector County. Oh? From whom? Mr. Woodruff. You still have it? I don't know, Sergeant. My inside pocket. All right. It's gone. What do we do now, Sergeant? We'd better camp here for the rest of the night. Tomorrow we'll make it to Dawson and get to to a doctor. The following morning, Sergeant Preston resumed the journey to Dawson. Doug Chatter was in such pain in the jolting of the sled that Sergeant could travel only a short distance at a time and then had to stop for rest. As a result, it was 24 hours later when he finally arrived in Dawson City. Sergeant, wait a minute. Okay. How are you? How's it going? What's the matter, Doug? Where are you going first? Well, I'm taking you straight to the hospital. Oh. There's no way there. Would you mind stopping off at the boarding house for my little boy's stay? I'd like to see him as soon as possible. Just in case anything goes wrong. Well, of course, Doug. We'll pick up Eddie and take him to the hospital with us. All right. I'm coming. I'm coming. After arriving at the hospital, Sergeant Preston waited for a few moments with little Eddie Chandler while the doctor examined Doug. By the way, Eddie, did Dr. Hollis ever hear from the specialist in San Francisco the one he wrote to about your leg? Oh, yes, sir. He said I especially thought my leg could be sick. Oh, that's fine, Eddie. I'm glad to hear it. Maybe it won't be long before you can get rid of those crutches. Oh, I don't know. What do you mean? It'll cost an awful lot of money to send me back to the States and pay for the operation. I don't think Dad can afford it. Well, perhaps he can find some way to raise the money. Oh, maybe so. Anyway, I don't care about that. Just so long as Dad doesn't die. Well, don't you worry, Eddie. He'll pull through. Oh, here comes the doctor. Now he'll be able to tell us how your dad's making out. We'll continue our adventure in just a moment. Say, why aren't you, fellas and girls, out at the ballpark these days, watching those home runs walloped into the grandstands, eating peanuts, popcorn, and hot dogs? Come out to the ball game as guests of a major or minor league team. All over the country, kids 12 years or younger are seeing major or minor league games free.  And you get your free baseball ticket immediately inside packages of Quaker Puff Wheat, Quaker Puff Rice, and Muffet Shredded Wheat. You'll find two free baseball tickets inside Quaker Packer 10. Names of teams and dates are on every ticket. So be guest of your favorite team at the ballpark. Crush to the storm with your mom and grab free baseball ticket packages of Quaker Puff Wheat or Rice, Muffet Shredded Wheat, or Quaker Packer 10, which has two free tickets. The more packages of these delicious Quaker cereals you get, the more free baseball tickets you get. Now to continue. After being shot from ambush, Doug Chandler had been taken to the hospital in Dawson City by Sergeant Preston. The sergeant and Doug's little boy Eddie waited tensely for the doctor's report. How is he, doctor? I'm afraid his condition is dangerous. Normally the wound wouldn't be fatal, but he's lost a lot of blood and the shock and exposure have weakened him considerably. You're going to extract the bullet? No, not yet. He's too weak. I want him to rest up first and gather his strength. Things look favorable. I may operate tomorrow morning. May I see him now? Please? Why, surely, son. As a matter of fact, he asked me to send you in right away. Are you coming too, Sergeant? No, Eddie, you go in by yourself. He wants to talk to you. In the meantime, I have to go over to headquarters and report to Inspector Connard. A short time later at headquarters, Sergeant Preston was giving the inspector an account of what had happened. I found a man in Steve Ward Canyon, sir, and shot in the back. I was afraid he would die unless he had immediate attention, so I took him to the hospital. I see. He told me he was carrying a letter for you from the owner of the Woodruff Mine. The Woodruff Mine? Wait a minute, Sergeant. What's the name of the man who was shot? Doug Chandler. You're sure there's no mistake about his identity? Fast as I've known him for some time, sir. Why do you ask? Because a man who said his name with Doug Chandler came here to headquarters yesterday with a letter from Philo Woodruff. My letter was stolen from Chandler by the person who shot him. Sergeant, beginning to look as though we're up against a well-laid scheme. I asked what the letter was about, sir. Woodruff asked me to send a constable to guard a $50,000 gold shipment that he's sending down to Skagway. $50,000 gold? Well, whatever the scheme is, that certainly provides a motive. That's what I am thinking. Did you assign a man to guard the shipment, sir? Yes, Constable Ross. Has he left yet? He left yesterday afternoon, and he and the man who posed is Doug Chandler. He probably passed their camp some time after dark last night. How soon can you be ready to hit the trail again? I'm ready now, sir. All right, go after them, Sergeant, and travel fast. That shipment is due to leave Gold Creek tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, Constable Ross and his companion were already more than halfway to Gold Creek. If they drove their teams along the bleak, snow-covered trail, the constable didn't suspect that they were being trailed by two other men, Duke Gurney and the crook called Louis, who had been dogging their tracks ever since they left Dawson. Soon after nightfall, they finally topped a steep ridge and came in sight of a mining camp spread out along Gold Creek. The crook posing as Doug Chandler shouted to the constable, Hey, stop him in the castle. Oh, ho! Oh, ho! Well, what's up, Chandler? Take a look down there. Down where? Down there towards the mouth of the crook. Looks like there's a cabin on fire, sir. I don't see anything down there. I reckon that'll take care of you for the time being. Leaving the constable where he had fallen, the crook broke off a pine branch and went back down the slope a short way so that his action wouldn't be visible from the mining camp. Then he set fire to the pine branch, waved it over his head, and at the same time gave voice to a shrill wolf howl. A short time later, the other two crooks appeared driving their teams up the slope. Oh, ho! Oh, ho! Oh, ho! Oh, ho! Well, how about it? Where's the constable? Over there on the ground. Ah, he's out cold. Good work, Rafe. All right, boys. Time up, and we'll take him back to our cabin. I'll change into his uniform and go report to Old Man Woodruff at the mine. Some time later that evening, Duke Gurney appeared at the mine wearing the uniform of Constable Ross. So you're the man that's been sent to guard the gold shipment? Yes, I'm Constable Ross. Glad to know you have a chair. Well, thank you, sir. By the way, where's Chen? He came back with you, didn't he? Oh, no, sir. He's still in Dawson in the hospital. In the hospital? What's the matter with him, man? Typoid fever. Typoid, eh? It's a good thing I didn't give him that advance on his wages. Thank you, boy. No matter, no matter. How about that gold shipment? I suppose you know I'm sending it out tomorrow morning. Yes, sir. The inspector told me. Very well. You can put up at the bunkhouse over night. He's ready to start at six in the morning. There'll be two drivers carrying the gold. And remember, the safety of that shipment is in your hand, sir. Don't you worry, Mr. Woodruff. I'll see to it that gold gets to its proper destination. We'll continue our adventure in just a moment. The bases are loaded. It's the last of the night. A two-out. Here comes the pitch. He swings. Whoa! Be right there in the ballpark and see a grand slam home run. Come out to the ballpark this very week as guests of a major or minor league team. Walk right through the gate free if you are 12 years or younger and bring mom or dad or another paying adult. It's so easy to get a free baseball ticket. It's right inside a package of Quaker Pop Wheat, Quaker Pop Rice, and Muffet Shredded Wheat. You get two free tickets in Quaker Packle 10. The ticket tells you the names of the teams and the dates. Don't miss out on the fun another day. Bring the whole family. Remember, no mailing, no waiting. You can get as many free baseball tickets as you want. They're inside packages of Quaker Pop Wheat or Pop Rice, Muffet Shredded Wheat, or Quaker Packle 10. Get yours right away. Now to continue. Meanwhile, Sergeant Preston was urging his team forward along the trail from Dawson to Gold Creek. All through the night he traveled, hauling only for an hour or so at a time to rest his exhausted huskies. Shortly after seven o'clock the following morning that he finally pulled into Gold Creek and halted his team in front of the office of the Woodruff Mine. Filo Woodruff looked up in surprise as the sergeant strode into his office. How's your gold shipment been sent out yet? Well, yes. The job is left about an hour ago. What about the constable who was supposed to guard the shipment? He went with him, of course. Was there a man with him when he arrived here from Dawson? Well, Doug Chandler was supposed to come back here with him, but the constable said he came down with typhoid fever. Had to go to the hospital. Doug Chandler's in the hospital, all right, but not with typhoid. What's that? He was shot in the back and left for dead before he reached Dawson. Good God. Who did it? That's what the Northwestern Army police would like to know. Whoever did it stole the letter you wrote to Inspector Conrad. But in that case, how did the constable happen to come here? A man posing as Chandler showed up in Dawson and delivered the letter to Inspector Conrad. Inspector sent Constable Ross back to Gold Creek with him. I don't get this at all. It doesn't make sense. What did the constable look like? He was a big fella. Dark-haired. Dark-haired? Constable Ross is blind. Come in, Jupiter. Wait a minute. The man must have been a crook. No doubt about that, and we can both guess what he's asking. My gold ship. Holy mackerel. $50,000 worth of dust. I've understood that you've got to go after the material. Now, wait a minute. First of all, who knew you were sending that letter to the inspector? No one except Chandler and myself. And of course, my clad, but Heflin... The fellow sitting out there at the desk? That's right. If he's got you, don't suppose he would. There's only possible answer. Come in here a minute, Heflin. All right. What's the matter? Is something wrong? The game's up, Heflin.  It was an imposter. Now, you'd better talk and talk fast. I don't know what you're talking about. Oh, yes, you do. You're the only person who could have passed along the information that Chandler was carrying that letter to Inspector Conrad. I knew about that letter, sure. But so what? I don't even know what you're accusing me of. If either of those drivers carrying the gold shipment are killed, you'll hang for murder. This is your one chance to save yourself. Cindy, you'd better talk. How can I talk when I've got nothing to say? All right, Heflin, that's your attitude. I'm arresting you as an accessory to the shooting of Doug Chandler. You can't arrest me. I haven't done anything. You've got to... No, I'll then hold your hands out and back of you while I snap on these handcuffs. What are you going to do with him? Can you have one of your mindhands and guard him till I get back? Of course, but what about you? I'm going out to the drivers and the fake constable. You'll get to stop him, Sergeant.  I'll remember that by now. All right, King, let's go, boys. It was several hours later when the fake constable and the two freight drivers reached a point where the trail wound through an arrow to fire in the hills. They had just emerged into the valley beyond when Duke Gurney, who was posing as the constable, shouted the command to halt. Help your teams!  What's the need, our constable? Sorry, sir, but that's not why we're stuck, huh?  Watch it, a gun! That's the idea! Stop and stop reaching, and don't try any funny stuff. This gun in my hand isn't the only gun that's covering you. If you'll cast your eyes at that big boulder over yonder, you'll notice two more guns aiming this way. Holy smoke, he's right, Jid. There's two guys over there behind that rock. We got him covered, Duke. Go ahead and take the gun. Yeah, I'll attend to that little detail right now. All right, give me your... All right, the harmless. Come on over and join the party. All right, Hunter Duke, I got the handle for you. Your scheme went off without a hitch. Oh, it's pretty smart the way you figured this job out. I sure never thought I'd see a Mountie turn croak. I'll let you in on a little secret, then. I'm no Mountie. What? I just borrowed the Mountie's uniform. How about it, Rafe? Did you bring the constable along like I told you to? Sure thing, Duke. I got him on my sled, all cut up and gagged. All right, you'll tie up these two drivers and dump all three of them somewhere off the trail. And we'll take the golden clear out of here. Got some rope handy on my sled. Okay, I'll see your gun, Louie. Let's get this going. All right, send to the Mounties. I'll get you for this.  Hey, who's a Mountie? With his team silent, Sergeant Preston had just a mark from the past. He jumped from his sled runners and covered the crooks. You won't take me, Mountie. The Mounties' gun spoke first, and Duke toppled face downward into the snow. Rafe and Louie went for their guns, and the drivers lunged for them.  I'll get you, Mountie. Again, the sergeant shot first, and Louie fell wounded. After taking his gun, the driver turned to help his own partner. Between them, they overpowered Rafe by the time Sergeant Preston reached the scene. Keep him covered, will I take a look at these two on the ground? Sure will, Sergeant. Do you recognize either of them? Yes. This one wearing the Constable's uniform is Duke Gurney. He's wanted for armed robbery. Have they dead? No, just wounded. I'll banish them up, and then we'll take all three of them back to the mine. How'd they pull off their scheme? None of them posing as the Constable and all that. Well, it's a long story, Jed. I suspect Bert Haflin was mixed up in the scheme, but he claims he's innocent. Says he knows nothing about it. However, even if we can't convict Haflin, these three will certainly go to prison, and if Doug Chandler should die, they'll hang for murder. Hey now, wait a minute. Haflin's not gonna wiggle out of this, Rafe. He was the one who got us into this field in the first place. I turned to if we hang, he'll hang with us, because I'll testify against him. Thanks very much. That's all I wanted to know. Two days later, Sergeant Preston and Eddie stood at Doug Chandler's bedside. Doug was propped up in bed with a cheerful grin on his face. Well, Doug, the doctor tells us that you're out of danger. That's right, Sergeant. He says I ought to be on my feet in a couple of weeks. Oh, gosh, Dad, I sure am stanky. I'm gonna be all right. I don't know what I would've done if he would die. Well, son, there's the man we have to thank for it. If he hadn't found me down there in the canyon, well, you probably never would have seen me again.  Well, you know, by the way, Doug, here's something for you. A roll of bills.  Holy smoke, how come? Well, he offered me a $2,000 reward if I could save his gold shipment. But the Northwestern Armed Police doesn't accept rewards, as you know, Doug. So I have to sweat it in to turn the money over to you. After all, you were shot in the line of duty, so to speak, and it's through you that the police got wind of the whole scheme. Sergeant, I just don't know what to say. Eddie, do you realize what this money will mean to a son? Is there enough to pay for the operation on my leg? Oh, you bet there is, son, more than enough. And when you go back to the states, I can go with you. Just think, it won't be long before you can get rid of those crutches and be playing around just like all the other kids. Oh, God, yes. Well, King old boy, with Eddie and Doug taking care of, I'd say this case is closed. We'll return in just a moment with a word about our next exciting adventure. Here's a mutual note for you. Mutual is a network that has programs you can enjoy throughout the week. If you like question and answer fun, then you'll find there are all sorts of quiz programs you can listen to on Mutual. You can try and out guess the contestants and see if you know the right answer before they do. Even if you don't know, it's loads of fun listening to others and you can learn a lot at the same time, too. And some of you boys and girls probably have favorite songs and favorite singers that you like to listen to. When you tune into Mutual, you'll hear many of the stars you like best, singing and playing the kind of music you enjoy most. Don't forget, too, there are programs of outdoor adventure and others of barn dance music and jamboree. There's plenty of good listening waiting for you on your Mutual dial. Tune in every weekday afternoon for Mutual's famous programs, especially designed for adventure lovers. And remember to listen other times as well for different kinds of programs you like over most of these stations. Sergeant wasn't expecting trouble when he came to Timberton, but now he'll be facing trouble and danger aplenty as he sets out to trail a desperate hold-up man with a fortune and gold at stake. Be sure to hear this exciting adventure Wednesday. These Sergeant Preston of the Yukon Adventures are brought to you every Monday through Friday at this time by the Quaker Roads Company, makers of Quaker Pop Wheat and Quaker Pop Rice, the delicious cereals shot from guns. By special recording in cooperation with the Mutual Broadcasting System. They are a copyrighted feature of Sergeant Preston of the Yukon Incorporated, created by George W. Trendle, produced by Trendle Campbell Muir Incorporated and directed by Fred Flower Day. The part of Sergeant Preston is played by Paul Sutton. This is J. Michael wishing you goodbye, good luck and good health from Quaker Pop Wheat and Quaker Pop Rice. So long. This is Mutual, Radio Network for All America.


Hi you guys, it's Lindsay here. I am so excited because today we are kicking off a brand new series here on inside the hem This series is going to be four videos posted every Monday and March that will teach you how to sew a Commercial sewing pattern. We are going to be doing a giveaway associated with this series I'm going to have all the details for that at the end of the video, but I did want to get into the information first So today we are going to be talking exclusively about the pattern envelope and all the information that you can get from the envelope So I'm going to change the camera angle here real quickly so you can see what I'm looking at and let's get started Okay, so here we are. This is butteric five four six six This is going to be the pattern that we are going to be using for the entire series And you can see from the front that it is a skirt pattern with six different options, but some of them are going to have two Darts which you can see here. This one has a belt This one it might be hard to see on the camera, but it has Princess seams going down the middle. This one has longer darts So there's going to be a couple options and then all of them The different variations are going to be labeled with different letters usually So this one has a through E So on the front of the pattern you will also find the size So there are generally two different sizes for commercial patterns you will generally have an 8 through 14 and then you'll have a 14 through I think 22 and most people fit within those sizes now It's important to know that your size that you find in the store that you find in retail and ready to wear is Not going to be what your size is in sewing patterns So if you are an 8 in the stores that does not mean you were going to be an 8 when sewing your sewing pattern The sizing is much much different so you kind of need to just get that number out of your head and We will figure out your size here in a second So on the back you are going to have usually a description of the pattern itself So if you didn't get enough information from the images on the front You can read this and it'll tell you that it's a semi fitted straight skirt with above the knee and They have back zipper closures, which you wouldn't have been able to tell that from the front anyway Since none of the backs of the skirts were shown Then a couple of the options have darts a couple of the options have waistbands C has a belt D has a princess seam E has a raised waist and also has princess seams So if it was hard for you to tell the difference between let's say A and B for example just from the pictures you will be able to figure that out from this description It'll also tell you what notions you're going to need and notions are all those little extra things That are going to help you finish your garment so things other than the fabric and the thread So that's what the notions for this skirt say obviously they're very different sometimes they include buttons or velcro or bias tape or anything like that But whatever you need other than fabric and thread is going to be listed here in the notions section So don't forget to check that when you're going to the fabric store and then all patterns all commercial patterns will have Suggestions for the fabrics that you should use some patterns are just not meant for knit For example, or they aren't meant to be made from a really lightweight fabric like this one For example, you would never see a straight pencil skirt from like a rayon or something like that It would it's just too lightweight and too flowy and this and the skirt would never hold its shape So they have some suggested fabrics here, which include broadcloth the mask satin jacquard poplin and tweed So you can tell again. Those are all sort of mid to heavier weight Sturdy fabrics that are going to give you the structure you need to hold that pencil shape the size Are sometimes listed in a chart like this But sometimes they're also listed on the little tab of the pattern envelope and that's where these are here So what you're going to need is your waist your and your hip measurement now If you're if you're making something that has a bodice like a dress or a shirt You're also going to need your bust measurement But they don't include that here obviously because you don't need a bust measurement to make this So let's say you are a size 26 waist You're going to go along here and you're 24 25 and 26 and a half so you're somewhere between a 10 and a 12 and for most people they're going to make the larger size because it's Easier to take something in than it is to let something out Most of these commercial patterns have a 5 8th seam allowance So that's not a whole lot of wiggle room for you to let something out But if it's too big, it's really easy to take in so I would recommend a size 12 for that And then let's say you have a hip measurement of 38 So you go along here and the 38 falls on a size 14 So you are a 12 in the waist and a 14 in the hip, which is totally 100% fine. I mean we are making custom clothes here making clothes from scratch so the fact that you were one size one place and another size and another is Is totally fine and nothing to be worried about at all You'll see whenever we start cutting the tissue paper how you grade between those two sizes how you draw the cutting line between a 12 and a 14 Whenever you're doing that, but that's that's nothing to be afraid of it's very very common In fact, I am three different sizes I'm one bust size one waist size and one hip size and it's usually never an issue for me Like I said, we're making custom clothes and so the beauty of it is you can make it to fit you exactly You shouldn't have to settle and we are not so let's say you're a 12 and a 14 great So now you're going to go down here and this is where the fabric is listed You'll see they have the different skirt Variations so all of these different options that are here. They have those letters listed here So let's say we're going to make skirt D. We're going to go all the way down here to skirt D And then we're also going to find our size. Remember, we're a 12 and a 14 So for finding the fabric measurement that you need Obviously, you're going to go for the largest size that you are just to make sure that you have enough fabric to cover you Um, and you'll just have more leftover than you normally would but so you're going to go to size 12 14 And you're going to go down until you get to skirt D And then you'll see there's one option for one and a half yards and one option for seven eighths of a yard And the 45 and the 60 indicate the width of the fabric So most quilting cottons, for example, are going to be 45 inches wide Most fashion fabrics are going to be 60 inches wide So when you pick your fabric, you'll just need to Indicate there and then how wide the fabric is and that way you know whether you need one and a half yards Or seven eighths of a yard. Now, let's say you want to make option I don't know C. Yeah, C has a lot of interesting things going on here So C has the same options as D 45 inch wide fabric or 60 inch wide fabric And then you go to your size 14 and you'll see you'll either need one and a half yards for the 45 inch fabric Or one and a quarter yards for the 60 inch fabric But you'll also see as part of skirt C that you need fusible interfacing So that means you'll have to go to and buy that as well go to your fabric store and buy that as well And most interfacing comes in 18 or 20 inches So they kind of just lump them together rounding This number to fit both of those and you'll go over to your size and see that you need One and a quarter yards for a size 14 in the fusible interfacing It's just nice to know to not that you don't have to go to the store and just round and estimate and say Oh, I don't know. Just give me two yards. Then hope that's enough If you follow this chart, you'll know exactly how much you need to buy You know that you'll have enough and you'll probably have some leftover for scraps as well And you just don't have to stress about that So that's how you find out how much fabric that you're going to need And then it'll also give you the length from the waist down to the hem And for all of the versions it's going to be 22 inches So if you're really tall you have really long legs or you're high waisted or something like that That information is going to be really helpful for you too as we move forward in the process system To see if you're going to need more fabric to add length to your skirt. That could also mean more That you have to purchase more fabric whenever you go to the store So finally here on the very bottom are going to be the drawings for the skirts And this is I hardly ever rely on this alone to me This is pretty and it gives me an idea of what it's like But I need to know the details of what the the skirt is going to look like if I just looked at this I would never know it had princess seams in it. So I want to not rely on the drawings I want to rely on the actual line drawings here. So you'll see for each version They have the the pattern lines for the front and then the back So this is the front of a the back of a the front of b the back of b front of c Back of c the belt for c and then the front and back of d and the front and back of e So you can see kind of all the differences that there are there how many darts there are where the zipper goes You know, if there is extra seaming, you know, you'll get to see the belt if there's going to be a belt Or any other accessories that come along with it So that is sort of the Nuts and bolts of the information that you can find on a sewing pattern envelope So I did mention a giveaway at the beginning of this video McCall's pattern company has been generous enough to give us three patterns to give to one of you And mccall's pattern company, if you don't know, they produce mccall's butteric and vogue sewing patterns. So For one of you, you will have the opportunity to choose three patterns of your liking from either of those brands And mccalls will gift them to you Um to enter all you have to do is subscribe to our youtube channel Subscribe to mccall's pattern companies youtube channel And I'll have a link to their channel below in the info bar so you can find it easily And then within the four videos, there's going to be a word hidden Within each of them and on the fourth video at the end of the series You're going to need to comment on that video with the four words that you found while watching the series And we'll pick one of you at random who get those right and you will be our big winner So don't worry about forgetting all those details. I will continue to remind you through the series But in the meantime, I hope you learned a lot about sewing with commercial patterns And you have a lot of information now you can go and purchase a pattern you can purchase your fabric You can purchase your notions and be ready for our next video next week So hopefully you'll stay tuned for that. But thank you so much for watching and until then. Bye


Have you ever wondered if you might have a dissociative disorder? If so, take this quiz and watch for more info. Before we get started, we made this quiz to help you out. Choose whichever answer closely relates to you. Number 1. Do you experience frequent gaps in your memory? A. Yes, all the time. B. Yes, sometimes. C. Once in a while. Or D. No, not frequently. Number 2. Do your surroundings seem, at times, two-dimensional? A. Yes, it happens a lot. B. Sometimes. C. No. Or D. No, what are you talking about? Number 3. Do you feel detached from yourself? A. Yes, it's like I'm watching myself. E. Sometimes. C. Not really. Or D. Never. If you answered A to most of them, there is some chance that you may be experiencing a dissociative disorder. In everyday language, many use the word dissociate, sometimes as a passing comment and occasionally as a joke. However, dissociation can point to unresolved trauma. Dissociating is more than zoning out. It's a coping mechanism against trauma. And in the long run, it affects your thoughts, emotional state, memories, and even your sense of identity. Although it is a helpful coping mechanism, frequent dissociative events make life difficult as they're disruptive to everyday life. So, what are some types of dissociation? There are three types. Dissociative identity disorder, dissociative amnesia, and depersonalization or derealization disorder. While each type has different symptoms, they share various traits, such as feeling detached. Detachment is a key sign of a dissociative disorder. You feel detached from others, your surroundings, and yourself. It's an easily recognizable trait for those who experience depersonalization or derealization. However, it takes self-awareness to realize that you are feeling distant from yourself. Take some time to check in and reconnect if you feel a bit removed from yourself. Another sign is a blurred sense of identity. Along with a feeling of detachment, you can also experience a sense of blurred identity, which may feel like you've distanced yourself from your core values or like you don't recognize yourself. If you feel this way, do things that will help bolster your sense of self. Explore some things that you may have stopped doing, do things authentically, and always reach out to a therapist if you need help. The next sign is memory gaps. A common sign of dissociation is having memory gaps. Memory gaps are not due to external factors or medications, but occur without any easily recognizable trigger. Noticing memory gaps is difficult because you're unaware you missed anything. Hence, it's usually a worrisome sign to see. A great way to become more aware of potential memory gaps is by journaling. Keep a journal of everything you plan to do that day or week. The next sign is an inability to cope with stress. Dissociation is a response to stressful situations. A clear way to recognize dissociation early is by measuring your stress tolerance. If you notice that stress affects you more than usual, your brain may resort to dissociation to cope. Clear signs of an inability to cope with stress include irritability, hypersensitivity, and persistent fatigue. If you are overwhelmed with stress, take a step back and do less. It's easy to get overwhelmed by pressing tasks, but sometimes in order to do more, it's best to start small. If doing less does not seem like an option, do something that helps you release stress, like exercising, dancing, or painting. The fifth sign on this list is unreal surroundings. Another characteristic of dissociation is a sense of unrealness. Surroundings can feel like props on a set or a part of a 2D painting. This symptom is typical in cases of derealization. Derealization is a type of dissociative disorder itself, but the symptoms of derealization can also persist in other types of dissociative disorders. To be classified as a symptom of dissociative disorder, the unrealness of your surroundings must not be caused by external factors. If you notice frequent moments of derealization, reach out to a therapist for help and guidance. Dissociative disorders can also be comorbid, or occur at the same time as other mental health issues such as depression, anxiety, and PTSD. If you notice any of the signs discussed in this video and want help, reach out to a therapist who can guide you through cognitive behavioral therapy or talk therapy, and offer an open and safe space for you to talk. Have you experienced any of these symptoms? Let us know in the comments and share this video with others who might benefit. The references and studies used are listed in the description below. Until next time friends, take care, and thanks for watching.