I don't need any of this technological stuff that's up here. I am just going to talk to you. All right. Well, some of the things I say might be a little bit different from what you hear in the news media. So you may want references. Some people watching on YouTube may say, I don't believe that guy. Why should I believe that schmuck? Where are his sources? So I am going to have a page on my website with the sources for some of the things that I say that you might want some source backing up. So that page is not done yet. But by the time the video appears on YouTube, Clay, make sure and delay this appropriately. I'll have that page up. I just started working on it today. And then it turns out Pete Canones is visiting us from the Free Man Beyond the Wall podcast back there. And how am I supposed to get any work done when Pete's talking my ear off? So that will be done by the time. But it will be tomwoods.com slash lockdown. And that's where you'll be able to find the resources. Now, if you try to go to that page now before it's been set up, you'll get my 404 error page. And the 404 error page at tomwoods.com. If you type in tomwoods.com slash some gibberish, take you to the 404 error page where it says, I'm sorry you reached this page where there's nothing here. And to make you feel better, here's a free ebook. I actually give away a free ebook on the 404 error page. Speaking of free ebooks, I have an ebook on the lockdowns. And it's called Your Facebook Friends Are Wrong About the Lockdown. So you can get that in two ways. WrongAboutLockdown.com. And if you're in the US, you can text the word lockdown to 33444. You get a whole ebook on this. Cost you nothing. OK, now that we've done that, we'll jump right in. This is a topic that's very personal for all of us. It's hard to look at it dispassionately and scientifically. And we've all lived through it. And we all know people who have been affected by it in one way or another, either by the virus itself or, in many more cases, by the lockdowns themselves. Everybody has had something disrupted by this. I remember as recently as March 7th of 2020, which is like a lifetime ago, having lunch in New York City with our old friend Gene Epstein. And Gene just turned 75 at the end of 2019. He's retired book review and economics editor at Barron's. And we were having a nice lunch together in New York talking about upcoming travels. And saying, well, I don't know, with this virus, I don't know what's going to happen with the travels. And should we still go on them or not? And his view was, you've got to live your life, man. You've got to just live.  And here he was. He didn't shake our hands. He did the Japanese bow. He's married to a Japanese woman. They gave us the Japanese bow, which we were quite delighted to return.  And maybe I'll stay in my apartment, but you should go live.  And we all kind of felt like, yeah, that's about the right approach. It never dawned on us at that point that these decisions would be taken out of our hands entirely. We really thought that we were going to assess the pros and cons and make a decision. It just never occurred to us that this would happen. The world would be closed down. That one minute, they'd be telling you globalism is the best thing since sliced bread.  Then the very next minute, if you say you want to see the world, you're a grandma murderer. It just was very sudden how this happened. But what also changed quickly were the rationales that were given for some of the measures that were taken, rather draconian measures. Now, obviously, I live in the United States. I can speak most confidently about here. So first, we all recall. We've all been through this before. We were told we had to so-called flatten the curve. Remember that expression? Now, there's a phenomenon that Michael Malus talks about a lot. It's the phenomenon of the midwit.  But he's not exactly curing cancer either. So the midwit has just enough intelligence to be irritating. And so you would get all over social media, midwits, explaining to you, even a month after we had all heard what flattening the curve was all about, we'd heard this from every official source over and over and over. And then you would make some mild remark, slightly dissenting from one point some official made. And you would get a solemn lecture, as if you had never heard the idea of flattening the curve before. What we need to do is flatten the curve. Because this way we spread out the infection, so we don't over. You think I haven't, blankety blank, heard this already? But if we cleared out the midwits, there'd almost be nobody left to talk about this topic. All right, now, it's true. There were some people who advocated flattening the curve because not only did they think it would help the hospital system cope better, but they also thought that that would reduce the overall number of deaths. And there were other people who said, we are not going to reduce the overall number of deaths. We're just going to spread them out. There were some flatten the curvers who said it will actually lead to fewer deaths. But this was not really coming through from a lot of the official sources, let's say. And so then, all right, so then they confine us. What are we on? The 127th day of 15 days to flatten the curve? I think that's where we are. So we've been confined to our homes for a few weeks. And then suddenly it wasn't flatten the curve. It flattened the curve was like Bell Bottom jeans at that point, or the Rubik's Cube or something. Like, if you were to bring it up, people would find it an interesting novelty. But it was like they had sort of forgotten all about that at that point. Instead, no, no, no, it became, according to Andrew Cuomo, if it saves only one life, that was the new metric. If it saves only one life. If we save even one life with all these draconian measures, they will have been worthwhile. Now that's particularly gruesome and grotesque coming from Andrew Cuomo. It is rather an upside down world that the guy who by far has the worst record on this, by far, is considered to be the great model and savior. And then all these hapless governors in other states where things have been at least manageable are viewed as like the devil. But Cuomo sends infected people into nursing homes, says that's not his fault. And everybody goes, well, he's got a pretty good point. And that is just accepted. This is not normal. We're surrounded by crazy people. We can't even have a conversation. Because if you try to have a conversation about this, you just want people to die. So if you disagree with, this is typical, by the way, of course, all the time we have to deal with. If you have a different opinion on what the welfare policy should be, that's because you hate the poor. Or if you think, well, private property might solve this problem a little bit better.  You can never have an honorable disagreement with the hysterics. Never.  And that strikes me as the classic case of projection. If their first instinct is, this must be motivated by hatred, maybe they intimately are familiar with that emotion or something, that they would constantly be consumed by attributing it to everybody. All right, but there are perfectly good reasons to doubt this, first of all, this criterion of, well, if we save only one life, I mean, come on. And now I realize that in this room, people are not so unscientifically sentimental that they think there's any sense to that. But you know, from interacting with people out in the giant insane asylum that is the world, there are people who think this way. But if that were honestly believed, we would have to modify all kinds of behaviors. We'd have to restrict the sale of all kinds of items. We'd have to ban dangerous pastimes, all kinds of things like that.  The difference here is, yeah, of course, skiing can be dangerous, but you don't have to ban skiing because skiing is not contagious. Skiing accidents are not contagious. This thing is contagious. And that's the difference. But if the standard is saving only one life, then it doesn't matter if it's contagious or not. And the thing is, nobody lives according to the if we could save only one life thing. Nobody does. If somebody dies in an automobile accident, we don't blame the institution of driving. It's an unfortunate part of life. We don't ban things that give people pleasure, even if they can cause death. Not just because we value liberty, but because these are things that make life worth living in the first place. And as I'll explain later, there is more to human life than mere biological existence. Now, it's true that what I'm saying in my presentation here at Mises You this year, OK, it's not really about Austrian economics. I'm going to admit that. Normally, I like to be on that topic because that is what we're talking about here after all. But good heavens, I can't not talk about this. You remember the judge telling us about Bojewski's book, What We Can't Not Know? This is what I can't not talk about. It's the lockdowns.  I've had that said to me.   There's a lot of death wish around in society these days, apparently. But what they don't factor in are things like this. Now, again, these are the sorts of things that I have in the e-book and or on that page, in particular, that I'll have ready soon. For example, over in the UK, on several occasions, in major newspapers are not like my friend's underground newsletter that doesn't have an italic font so he has to underline the words with a ruler and a pencil. I'm talking about a real newspaper that we're supposed to listen to and they're always telling us the truth. Even they have been saying that it's quite possible that we will wind up with more preventable cancer deaths than COVID deaths in the UK because of an irrational diversion of resources into a surge that didn't really materialize the way we were told it would. What about those lives? And see, that's another thing. A lot of times the other side is driven by anecdote. I knew a guy who died. If you knew a guy, then you would take this more seriously. All right, well, what if I know somebody who died of a preventable cancer? Wouldn't that make me be more against the lockdowns? So what is knowing a person? I mean, yes, it can encourage us in empathy, but it is extremely unscientific to say, well, I know a guy and therefore I favor the lockdowns. The lockdowns cause other deaths and those deaths are just as important even if you didn't know those people. If you're really empathetic, you can go beyond just your immediate circle and understand that other people's lives matter too. Okay, in April, the United Nations warned of hundreds of thousands of child deaths and the reduction of somewhere between 42 and 66 million children to extreme poverty as a result of the complications emerging from the lockdowns. Do those people's lives not matter? Something called the well-being trust in Oakland, California produced a study trying to find out how many deaths of despair would come about as a result of not just the lockdowns, to be honest, also just worry about the virus itself, but also the effects of the lockdowns. How many deaths of despair would there be? Now, by deaths of despair, we are referring to things like suicides as well as alcohol and drug overdoses. And they came up with a high figure and a low figure and they just averaged the figures out to about 75,000 excess deaths of despair. Now, I don't know about the method behind some of these studies, but nobody seems to care about the method behind studies saying that everyone's gonna die next Wednesday, so I'm not particularly worried about that objection. And we're told by the vice chairman of the American Psychiatric Association's Council on Addiction Psychiatry, I've been seeing this in practices and my colleagues have been talking about it too, people suffering because of social isolation and that addiction patients are relapsing and a lot of patients who don't have drug use or alcohol problems are drinking more now, sometimes every day from four or five PM and they don't stop until they sleep. Then UNICEF predicted 1.2 million child deaths as a result of the lockdowns. So it's not just either or, well, either we have the lockdowns and people live or we don't have them and everybody dies.  Hence this presentation today. Now, these items go to show that if you shut down the world and you tell us that we all have to live like vegetables and that's the new normal, this has consequences. And it also reveals to us how barren it is to say you should shut up and listen to the experts. Now, obviously there are many situations in our lives when we do simply shut up and listen to the experts.  I don't go up to him with a conspiracy theory, I don't say, you know, I know Bill Gates wants to have some other kind of car and he's discouraging me in the car I have by having it break down. I don't do anything like that, I don't need to. I just get the car fixed. But the thing is there is, and I think you can see a bit of high ex-concern about scientism in all this, there is a superstitious reverence for so-called experts that manifests itself in the expectation that they can answer all questions. Not simply the questions they're trained to answer, but they have a holistic view of the world and they can really answer all questions. So let's take, for example, why don't we pick somebody at random? Okay, let's just pick a random expert. Dr. Anthony Fauci, I just picked him at random. Now, people say he's an infectious disease expert and he knows all, you know, he's been around a long time and he has a lot of experience with this and we should listen to what he says because he's the expert. Okay, it is true that he has a lot of knowledge about a lot of things. But if he says the most important thing you should value is flattening this curve, the most important thing you should value is minimizing deaths from this virus, that may well be the best judgment somebody could make. But that is a judgment call because as we've seen, there are competing health concerns in the world. So we need to be able to make our own judgments here. Moreover, he was asked at one point, are you factoring in trade-offs here? That yeah, obviously, if we take all of society's resources and we direct them at one goal, okay, maybe we make some progress against that goal, but what about all this unseen wreckage we're leaving everywhere? His answer was no, he hadn't thought that through. And this is the point. There's no class that a doctor takes in school that teaches him how to balance all the different competing concerns in a situation like this. He doesn't take a class teaching him how you factor in to your public policy recommendations that there are going to be unintended consequences of this, that and the other thing. And gee, how do we balance the 1.2 million dead children against this policy over here? They're not taught that. These are judgments we have to make as informed people. So epidemiologists are not taking a class that teaches them what the answer is in this situation. And then we're told, listen to the science. Okay, now in general, I don't have any objection to that. Science is a glorious thing. It's one of the great, I mean, I know people don't like to talk like this anymore, but it is one of the great creations of Western civilization is the scientific method and all that absolutely agreed. But we have to understand what is science? Science is not a series of infallible statements. That is absolutely not what we're dealing with. It's an ongoing search for the truth. So thus science has been all over the place in this crisis. They're presumably trying to get a handle on what's going on. So simply to say to me, listen to the science. Well, okay, if I listen to the science, I'm constantly getting different answers to how does the virus spread? How does it not spread? What is the role of children? Do children get it? Do they spread it? Do they not spread it? Do asymptomatic people spread it? Do they not spread it? What about pre-symptomatic people? Is Sweden's approach a good idea? We were told, no, it's terrible. Everybody's gonna be dead in Sweden. And then we were told by the head of the health emergencies program of the World Health Organization, Sweden's avoidance of a lockdown was a model, we were told by the science. Why are some countries doing so much better than others? So the science told us that Japan should be a giant graveyard. And the ghouls were practically rubbing their hands together in anticipation at the Japanese, getting what they deserved because they didn't listen to the science. It's almost like there's something more than just science motivating these people. And none of that ever happened. Japan did fine. And then later they said, well it's because Japan wore masks. They knew Japan wore masks when they were predicting they were all gonna be dead. So nice tribe bozo to bring that one up at the end. Or whether lockdowns work. Well show me. So I'm supposed to listen to that? I mean I'll do my best to be informed but it's not like there's some infallible answer that we can all be listening to at a time like this.  They'll set you straight.  But even they have differences of opinion because believe it or not, even healthcare professionals have political ideologies. It turns out. They're not actually sitting on platonic mountaintops abstractly contemplating the eternal forms, all of them. So if we're going with anecdotes like hey, my friend's a nurse and my nurse friend said such and such. Well there are plenty of healthcare professionals willing to say this has been a fiasco. And a lot of them have written to me. I have patients not coming in because they've been terrified into not coming in and they're winding up having all kinds of problems. It turns out that I think a cardiac arrest is down by like 40% of where it would normally be. Now either the virus is a magical curer of cardiac arrest or people who need to go to the doctor are not going. So now I liked this statement. This came from Dr. Steven Shapiro. He is the chief medical and scientific officer at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. Now I took him as being frankly a little ticked off when he first made his statement. Ticked off by the exaggerated accounts of what was surely going to happen in his area. And then nothing approaching it happened even though they prepared everything for it to happen. They're sending other patients away. They got everything ready. Not even a tiny fraction of it occurred. Yeah, we're opening back up to let sick people come back in. So this is Steven Shapiro. These are some excerpts. We indeed saw a steady stream of patients but never quote surged. At peak in mid-April COVID-19 patients occupied 2% of our 5,500 hospital beds and 48 of our 750 ventilators. Subsequently admissions have been decreasing with very few patients now coming from the community almost all now being from nursing homes. Of note in the 36 UPMC owned senior facilities we have had zero positive cases. Our outcomes are similar to the state of Pennsylvania in general where the median age of death from COVID-19 is 84 years old. I might add by the way that the general statistic for the United States is that the life expectancy is about 78 and the median age of COVID-19 victim is 81. He says the few younger patients who died all had significant pre-existing conditions. Very few children were infected and none died. Minorities in our communities fared equally as well as others but we know that this is not the case nationally. In some this is a disease of the elderly, sick and poor. We are now actively bringing back our patients for essential care following CMS guidelines. To assure a safe environment we use adequate PPE and test all even asymptomatic pre-operative patients for active viral infection with PCR. To date zero out of 1,000 tested positive in Western Pennsylvania, New York and Maryland three of 500 are positive in central Pennsylvania. Our community prevalence is low which we will soon confirm with antibody testing. And now here's what I like the most, some humility. Despite rapid progress there are critical gaps in our knowledge as well as selective use of what we know. For example, we don't know why many who are infected never develop symptoms while other seemingly similar patients get very sick. Crowded indoor conditions can be devastating in nursing homes while on the USS Theodore Roosevelt 1,102 sailors were infected but only seven required hospitalization with one death. This contrast has significant implications that we have not embraced. Epidemiologic prediction models have performed poorly often neglecting critical variables. Seasonality is rarely considered yet we know that coronaviruses are seasonal. Hope is not a plan but it is quite possible that the virus is not very healthy in the US right now. The question before us is what will happen as we reopen society and how should we manage it? For New York and a handful of other cities with high case rates as a result of density, travel and socioeconomic issues they must open up in a measured stepwise manner with extensive testing, tracing and treatment. But for the rest of the country as people come out of their homes cautiously and safely if we protect our vulnerable seniors particularly those in nursing homes we should be able to keep case rates low buying time for a potential resurgence as we bolster our supply chain and find effective intervention. COVID-19 is a disease that ravages those with pre-existing conditions. Whether it be immunosinescence or of aging or the social determinants of health we can manage society in the presence of this pathogen if we focus on these pre-existing conditions. And now here it comes the health consequences of lockdown. What we cannot do is extended social isolation. Humans are social beings and we are already seeing the adverse mental health consequences of loneliness and that is before the much greater effects of economic devastation take hold on the human condition. In this particular case the problem we're not gonna be able to fix in the short term is the complete eradication of the virus. The problem we can fix is to serve and protect our seniors especially those in nursing homes. Now again when you try to raise points like this you get told by people well I know somebody who died who was only 37. And that's true. I believe that the statistic below age 50 in the US deaths is something like 9,000 have died. So it's nothing to shake a stick at but comparable to suicides, accidents and whatever in that age group. I remember distinctly the New York Post ran a story about a 20 year old who was given the all clear they said and then he died of the virus I beg your pardon of COVID-19 and they said what a tragedy this was. Paragraph 10 tells you by the way he had leukemia and but yet everybody people walk around with I knew a guy and these are the pro science people we're the pro science people and we're gonna argue from anecdote. I know I heard there was a 20 year old guy. This is like saying men are generally taller than women and coming back with what are you talking about? My wife is six foot one. What is that? You're not even entitled to get into like you need the prerequisites for science 101 if you're at that level. More people over age 100 than under age 30 have died which is quite interesting. And even Neil Ferguson who was responsible for the models the major UK model of the virus predicted that somewhere between 50% and two thirds of all people who would go on to die from it would have died in 2020.  So let's say just a few little statistics here because why not? We have to have them. In New York City that was the hardest hit part of the United States and we can speculate as to why it hit so hard. Obviously that horrible nursing home policy is a big part of it. I think early on they weren't really sure about the right treatments and I remember seeing a YouTube video of a doctor saying the ventilators are making things worse.  And it turned out, oh yeah. Yeah, the ventilators are really a problem. And so no, Andrew Cuomo did not need 40,000 ventilators if I don't get 40,000 ventilators it's gonna be a giant graveyard over here. They got a small number of ventilators they wound up giving some of them away to other states. It turns out. It turned out that guy, that doctor on the YouTube video was telling us the truth. So between the ages of 18 and 44 we've seen a rate of 11 deaths per 100,000 in New York City. For people 75 and older, the rate was 80 times that. And for people under age 18, their death rate per 100,000 was zero. But this 18 to 44 group, and by the way I know this will come as a surprise to you but I don't belong to that group that 18 to 44. The policy is apparently to deprive them indefinitely of all the wonderful things we oldsters enjoyed as we grew up, even though they're at essentially no risk. And yet they did a study recently where they asked people like in their 20s how scared are you? Or like of a thousand of your friends how many do you think will die of the virus? And they had wildly out of scale predictions. The answer is like almost zero. And they thought it was gonna be dozens of their friends would be dead. I mean who can blame them? I mean they're probably watching, I don't know why, or what generation is that, Z maybe? I don't know why would they be watching the news but some of them I guess are. I mean why would they have this view? So it's not just that they're worried about their old relatives. A lot of them are really terrified of the likelihood of dying when they, according to everything we know they have essentially no chance. All right, let's go to my own personal observations. I've visited a number of these opening states because right now I have to balance something here in a talk like this. If I focus my talk entirely on the statistics of right this minute, on this date in July 2020, then it becomes stale in a week. So I don't wanna do that even though I wanna say a little something about that. I wanna focus primarily on these big picture questions. I had a chance to visit, let's say I visited Georgia as soon as it opened up and then Texas and then Massachusetts. Massachusetts where when I went to a restaurant I had to wear the mask before we were served and then you can take the mask off because you cannot spread the virus while you're eating. Thank God, that's such a relief. And then put it back on and leave but I had to write my name and address down. Like it was humiliating but you know when you're hungry, you're hungry, right?   If people have the idea, they just opened everything up and then look what happened. No, you couldn't get it. I mean most things were shut down in Dallas, almost every restaurant was shut down. So it's not the case, they just, and by the way for a couple of solid months there the case rate was still flat even though they were to some degree open. I'll never forget going to Waffle House at three in the morning. That's why you go to Waffle House. It's three in the morning. Where else are you gonna go? And it was you had to stand outside until your food was ready. Then you could come in and sit at one of the socially distanced tables and when you're standing outside a Waffle House at Dallas at three in the morning, you run into some interesting characters. I'll put it that way. So the good thing is it was kind of enriching. But I remember sitting there and getting to discover what life is like at a Waffle House at three in the morning because I heard the waitress at the register say to a customer, sir, you're bleeding. I don't even know what's going on here. But so the openings were extremely modest and yet when Georgia opened, the headlines were unbelievable. The Atlantic said Georgia was attempting an experiment in human sacrifice. Washington Post said that Georgia is striving to become the number one death destination in America. Makes you just wanna get one of those big foam gloves with the number one on it. Skull and crossbones on it. And it turns, I just checked the numbers. In the past week, they had under 200 deaths from it in Georgia, which is fewer than they had the week before they opened. So the giant Georgia shaped graveyard has not materialized, but no word from anybody. Well, maybe we exaggerated when we accused the governor of trying to sacrifice human beings to some sun god or whatever. I mean, maybe we shouldn't have said that. We get, one thing I observed, by the way, when I was in these states and particularly in Georgia, it seems to me that it was the older people who more wanted to resume their lives than the younger ones. Like they were the ones who wanted to go out. I don't wanna see my grandkids on Zoom anymore. You know, I'm willing to take the chance. You know, I have to be human at some level. I have to just go back to human life and take my chances in and an acquaintance of mine to put it this way. I relinquish any claim on the lives of the young. As an oldster who is presumed to be peculiarly susceptible to the ravages of COVID-19, I will not ask anyone to sacrifice days, weeks or months of their time, love, life and livelihood on my behalf. It is grotesque for the old to ask the young to sacrifice for them.  Enjoy the beautiful spring weather. I have no claim on you for my welfare. Who among my fellow oldsters will release any claims on the lives of young people? Interesting way to put it. I suggested that there should be a group called grandmas against lockdown. Nobody took me up on that, but it's a suggestion. So one gimmick that we got from people I call the doomers was the old jelly bean example. They would say, if you had a bowl of 100 jelly beans and you knew three of them were poisoned, would you take a handful of them? Now, there isn't a 3% death rate. It's extremely way lower than that. But the idea was supposed to be, you see how stupid it is to risk resuming your life when there's this chance of, so the idea was the only rational response is not to take any jelly beans and then in terms of the virus is just cowering in your house. So leave aside the gross exaggeration involved. The question really being asked is, would you reach in and take something if there was a chance it contained poison? But what they're leaving out is, the real question is, what would I suffer if I didn't reach in? What if I just stand there and do nothing? Because they're suggesting that my only possible concern in my life is the virus, but I have other concerns too. One of them is not spending months and possibly years living like a vegetable. And that's what happens if I don't reach in. In the analogy, my reaching into the bowl is the equivalent of returning to normal life and thereby taking a risk. And yes, I'm prepared to take that risk because I wanna live a life that's worth living. If the jelly beans represent everything I've worked for my whole life, if they represent financial solvency, if they represent all my hopes, dreams, and aspirations, you better believe I'd grab that handful and eat them without the slightest hesitation.  So my favorite example, because I was lectured repeatedly about it on social media, in mid-March, it looked like, you know, Hong Kong has really got a handle on the virus. And the headline read, Hong Kong thought it had a handle on the virus, but now it's in big trouble. They were reporting a doubling of confirmed cases in a week. And oh my gosh, in the media and all over social media, it was just way too weeks. It's gonna be piles of corpses in Hong Kong. And it wasn't even like how tragic that it'll be. It was almost like a perverse cheering. Like it's the same perversity with which these people reject all good news. Hey, here's some good news about the virus. As time goes on, a lower and lower percentage of people getting it need to be hospitalized. Like they don't even wanna, it's like they freeze up when they hear good news.  So anyway, wait two weeks, right? After Hong Kong, there's gonna be corpses everywhere. Two weeks went by no additional deaths. Four weeks, nothing. Eight weeks, nothing. Now at this point, that doubling of confirmed cases has clearly led to zero deaths. I will tell you that 13 weeks later, there was one death. But unrelated to that doubling of confirmed cases. So why didn't that happen? Can't we have the humility to say we don't entirely know what's going on? Not everything about this virus has a glib tweet response. Not everything. Masks will solve all our problems. Why is California having a spike? They've been wearing masks and it seems like somehow they got a time machine they've been wearing them for two years or something. I don't even know the science behind masks. Maybe they do work. Who even knows? But the point is the Connecticut governor is saying, well, the reason we flattened our curve is because of masks. I'm pretty sure the science doesn't say masks work in Connecticut, but they're a big stink and failure in California. Obviously there's something less cartoonish going on that we haven't fully got a handle on. Or I mentioned Japan before. Why didn't that giant pile of deaths materialize in Japan? Now this is a fascinating case study because despite plenty of contact with China and taking fairly modest coercive measures compared to a lot of other countries, Japan had very few COVID deaths. And the answer initially coming from the doomer side was that's because they don't wanna jeopardize the Olympics. They're suppressing the real numbers. And they're afraid that if they reveal, half of us died, no one's gonna wanna come to the Olympics. So then they postpone the Olympics. No reason to cover up now. No deaths emerged that had been covered. So they just ignored that. Oh, sorry, we accused you all of being liars. No apology, never an apology. An apology? Never, never. Apparently the virus really latches onto apologies. So they're never, never gonna issue an apology. So no apology. So then in early April, the Japanese government asked for voluntary compliance with further social distancing policies. And the press, oh my gosh, the media was overwhelmed with too little too late. It was almost like, yeah, we can't wait to see what happens to you people. And grim warnings of the hospitals are gonna be overwhelmed in Tokyo.   How do they account for that? So then they say, well, the Japanese are very clean people, they're concerned about hygiene. Did you just find this out in the past four weeks?  So you can't now use that. That doesn't work that way. But a professor at Waseda University, Mikahito Tanaka had the guts to say when asked why has Japan done so well? The answer was, even experts don't know the reason. How about that? Now on Twitter, they all know the reason. It was masks. They all know the reason on Twitter. Or if you post this on Facebook, all your Facebook friends, they all know the reason. The experts are stumped, but they really should get on Twitter more because then they would know what was causing it. If it had been such a cartoonish pedestrian answer as masks, you don't think the experts would have thought of that? Or other questions like, why was Iran hit so hard and Iraq not as much? Isn't that the opposite of what you would have predicted?  Wouldn't that seem like they're more ripe for this?  We can't get the answer. And there's like no curiosity about it either. Like every country's the same. Everybody's gonna be Italy. The US is gonna be Italy, whatever. I just don't see what's so hard about admitting we don't entirely know what's going on. Let's just be honest. We don't entirely know what's going on. But there are people who think they know. They think that if students return to school, this is gonna lead to piles of corpses. Now, I realize that I'm of two minds on this having helped to devise a homeschool curriculum. I'm not particularly eager to send people back to the schools. I grant that. But leaving that aside, I'm just talking about the arguments here. In Germany, Saxony was the first to reopen schools after the lockdown. The result was no hotspot whatsoever. And after the summer break, they're even gonna drop the mask requirement. So we'd actually, this has actually been tried. How about the lockdowns themselves? And there's some interesting food for thought at least on the lockdowns. So in the Wall Street Journal, we read this from T.J. Rogers. He says, we ran a simple one variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown, which ranged from minus 10 days to some states shut down before any sign of COVID-19 to 35 days for South Dakota, one of seven states with limited or no shutdown. The correlation coefficient was 5.5%. So low that the engineers I used to employ would have summarized it as no correlation and moved on to find the real cause of the problem. I'll have on my page some charts that you can look at on this because we do have Google mobility data. Like we actually, I know we don't like being traced but here's a silver lining of it. We know that people have been moving around since some of the social distancing requirements have been lifted. And even before they were lifted, some people after a month just got tired of doing it and they started moving around. So you think the more they move around, the more that virus is gonna spread, the more deaths. So you could plot these numbers. So there's a researcher who calls this social contact score. Like, you know, how many people you come into contact with and how much traveling you're doing, how much mobility do you have? And they were looking at mobility versus deaths per million in the chart looking at all the different states. And there's no correlation. How about staying at home? How about the shelter in place policy? If anything, the results show the opposite of what you would expect. Now obviously correlation doesn't prove causation but I think it's reasonable to ask could you really have causation without any correlation? I mean, what is happening here? Again, that shouldn't be, right? That should not be, why would that be? And even I don't quite see why that, it seems to make sense. You stay home and things should, and yet the numbers don't even bear that out. You know, what's happening here? Now you say, oh, but maybe it's that in the places that were hit the hardest, because they were hit the hardest, they imposed the heaviest lockdowns and stuff like that. But they've played with those numbers too. It doesn't work out that way. So for example, you could look at, there were seven states that had minimal to no lockdowns and you look at what are the expected number of deaths that you would expect to have in these states by this time of the year? And every one of those seven is way below, or is at least significantly below or somewhat below the expected number of deaths. Then we look at the seven most heavily locked down states and five of those are above the expected number of deaths and several of them way above the expected number of deaths. So again, now there could be other factors at work here, but it's not just a glib response that on Twitter you could give in 280 characters. There's something we're not quite fully getting about this. And it's not entirely just population density either. Stockholm did better than New York City and even did better than all of New York State despite being 2.6 times more dense. All right, I don't want to talk any more about Georgia because I did that, so I will say a little something about Sweden before we start wrapping up. Sweden of course is the country everyone used to love. Everybody loved Sweden, whatever it was, Ikea's from Sweden or something and then they loved the social democracy and all that and then that just stopped. They don't like Sweden at all. So okay, so they say Sweden didn't do as well as other Scandinavian countries and yes, its nursing homes were hit very hard. But one thing that is interesting to note about Sweden is it's a country of 10 million people. How many people under age 50 died from the virus in Sweden? Under age 50, 70, that's an astonishing number. So now, and incidentally, it's not enough to say, well, Denmark and Finland did better than, if the virus justified this mad irrational destruction of the past four months and who knows how many more months, Sweden should be a thousand times worse than everybody else. Not comparable to the UK. It should be a thousand times worse. There shouldn't be anybody left. Ferguson's model said there would be 96,000 deaths by June in Sweden if they didn't have full suppression. By that date, they had had about 4,000 deaths. So they beat that by a factor of 24. So that's worth knowing. There's other things we can say about Sweden. I mean, we also know the Swedes kept sending kids to school, the Finland they didn't. And then it turns out there's no difference in the health outcomes whatsoever, none whatsoever. All right, it's true that people want to talk about what's going on in some of these states that have reopened. Because, yeah, I can find a state like Georgia where everything's pretty stable. But there are a few states where the cases have spiked and even the deaths have slightly spiked. Now, obviously the case spike is partly because of additional testing. Not entirely that, but partly that. And part of the reason behind additional testing is that in a lot of places, to return to work, you have to prove that you don't have the virus. You got to go get tested. And in Florida, I believe it was Florida, they were honest enough to admit that they're not catching all the duplicates. So if you go and get tested five times trying to get back to work, there have been times when that's been counted as five cases. You're actually only one person. So that's important to remember. So I will talk a little bit privately about that because if I get bogged down in that, then it makes this not as ever green a YouTube presentation. But the long and the short of it is none of these places are or will be New York. All right, so the last bit, and then I know I'm going over a little bit, but I feel like if I don't look at Joe Salerno, I can just keep going. If I can't see him signaling to me, I can just keep going. Now, obviously it makes sense to take precautions and particularly people who are vulnerable, especially vulnerable. There are precautions you can take. They're increasing, improving treatments all the time. These are all things to be welcomed. But the issue is, if we just simply say, let's just try to have a blanket protection of absolutely everybody, this is not the best, it seems to me, use of resources. It'd be better to focus the resources on the most vulnerable people and let the other folks try to live their lives the best they can, at the very least, to keep the engine of prosperity going that allows us to support the vulnerable people in the first place. And we should talk about how to best preserve biological life. But the bigger question that needs to be answered that I hinted at at the beginning is whether mere biological life is worth living. And no expert can answer that question for you because it's a philosophical question. So if people's hopes, dreams, and aspirations are dashed for an indefinite period of time, which purveyors of the current strategy almost flippantly propose, oh, we'll just stay shut down, is that really living? They say probably no large gatherings for a long time. Okay, well, how long? Just give me an estimate. And what are large gatherings? Oh, no big deal, just concerts, theater, lectures, church, sporting events, the arts in general, pretty much everything that makes life worth living. So yes, this kind of life has a pulse, but it has no soul. Now in this large gatherings thing, anybody who performs in front of an audience, and that's dancers, musicians, comedians, magicians, athletes, singers, actors, whatever, this present strategy means your hopes and dreams are on indefinite hold and you may never be able to fulfill them. Your heart will keep beating, but you'll never be able to fulfill them. People who went before you got to fulfill their dreams, but you can't fulfill yours. There's an ironically named Center for American Progress that has as one of its spokesman, Dr. Zeke Emanuel, who's the brother of Rahm Emanuel, you know, of not letting a crisis go to waste that guy. He says we need to be on lockdown for 18 months until there's a vaccine, which he assumes there will be. And these are his exact words. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure. We have to be realistic, Emanuel urges us, and accept that we will be giving up cherished things for a long time. And here's what he says, things we have to give up. Things like schooling and income and contact with our friends and extended family. Things like schooling and income and contact with our friends and extended family. This is insanity. What it boils down to is this. Either we're gonna live or we're not. And life is riskier in the age of COVID-19. Thankfully, we know precisely the kinds of people who require special consideration and attention. And we would have much better numbers today if we hadn't been acting on the basis of wildly inflated estimates. That's supposedly the reason they threw all these old people who were infected back into the nursing homes. It was to be ready for this surge of eight gazillion people. There weren't eight gazillion people. It was a challenge, but there weren't eight gazillion people the way they said. And meanwhile, all these old folks died. Start by not doing that. We had no right to expect a virus to be this accommodating to us in the sense that we could identify demographics in danger. This should help us as we try to cope with it. Or you would think. Instead, it seems like doomers want to discontinue those life-giving pleasures that give meaning and fulfillment to otherwise drab existences. Now, was your risk level precisely where you needed it to be down to three significant digits before this virus came along? Because that'd be an amazing coincidence. You were at just the risk profile you could tolerate. And then a very slight increase in risk meant you had to shut your life down. But you could transmit the virus to someone else, they say, and that's true. This is why people most likely to suffer serious consequences from it should probably isolate themselves.  If we don't agree to focus our efforts on safeguarding the elderly in particular, then life becomes a miserable series of deprivations. When will someone say we refuse to live like this? We already have some elderly and immunocompromised people, including friends of mine saying, look, we don't even want you to live like this. We're not even asking for this. Goal, enjoy the one life you get. And we will do the best we can until conditions change.  At least that way we could focus our resources on people who really need it instead of fruitlessly shipping millions of tests all over the place.  In the UK, Lord Sumption summed it up. What sort of life do we think we are protecting? There is more to life than the avoidance of death. Life is a drink with friends. Life is a crowded football match or a live concert. Life is a family celebration with children and grandchildren. Life is companionship and arm around one's back, laughter or tears shared at less than two meters. These things are not just optional extras. They are life itself. They are fundamental to our humanity, to our existence as social beings. Of course, death is permanent, whereas joy may be temporarily suspended. But the force of that point depends on how temporary it really is. Well, right on. Thank you.


What's going on everyone? Sam here with late sports cards. I've been to Cosmically, Prestin, Six Box, Hops, Baseball Mixer, number four, random team style. So look again at your random results. As always, you can find those on the websites, under the results tab, as well as the link that's in chat. It's good luck everybody. Here we go. I am not sure to be honest quick. My guess would be if it hasn't been shipped within the next couple of days, probably tomorrow or Monday, I would say. Whoa, what up buddy? Well, you did pretty decent on the rain. I got the Orioles in the randoms and the Phillies and the Tigers, I believe too, if I'm not mistaken. So, see some Gunner action or some Riley Green. Something's bracing stock last year maybe. AC, what up buddy? Vaughn, what up Vaughn? Jordan Groeschans and Alec Minoa around the diamond. Jersey on the floor, the Blue Jays. And Grats, Blue Jays. Nice one there. I think we just got somebody going. Who did? I got her. Who did we actually? Who was it? And Bobby Witt Jr. I think the man goes from here. Newt Barr, Luis Arias Red, one of five. That is a twins card right there. That is the Minnesota Twins. Gary, what up buddy? Luis Arias and Laz Newt Bath. Look Gary, Newt Bath. Newt Bath. Here's your guys' link again to Mosaic down to 16. Later Jake. It got randomed earlier today actually AC. And it went to the NFC West. Went to the NFC West with Kenneth Walker. Pete Alonso, oh snap. Alec Berluson, Ryan Halsely. Kind of a birthday shout out to Cam Reddish. No thanks. Albert Pujols, Jonathan India. Blue, Cody Clements for the Phillies. Rookie to 75. Beaty Rookie, Bernie Williams. There's Christopher Morel. Ball and that fixture boy is my cord bag. Jermaine Palacios, one of the best.  Buster Posey, nice for the Giants. 28 to 50, pristine personal endorsements. A little short print there. Let's go baby. Very nice, congrats Giants. That works. And Vladdy Jr., that's really cool dude. Like those personal endorsements. Buster Posey, Jordana and Purple. Moreno to 99. You say that every time he's pulling from there. I will actually. I will now, now that I did not know that. Oh yeah, I was watching. And Reggie Jackson. All right, our encased cards. Got Shane Bieber and Larry Walker, Guardians Cardinals on base. Yes he will, yes he will. Mark McGuire to 75 for the Cardinals, nice big Mac. Orange Rookie Jeter Downs, that is 14 of 25, going to the Nationals. We go Washington. Nolan Jones Refrector Rookie Auto, that is going to the Rockies. Congrats Colorado. And Jonathan India, Fresh Faces Auto for the Reds. That's on that Cincinnati. All right, on the next one. The lead is off to Lori. Sean's the first round exit. No, not tonight, Oppo. No, Matt is off today, so no personals on channel two. I'll be doing personals after group breaks. I am not gonna get to a lot of them I have to imagine as we're scheduled till 12.40. We may end up being a bit behind. So that's the case, I'll get to as many as I can. I'll get to as many as I can tomorrow. And then they'll, everything that doesn't get ripped from tonight and tomorrow will go on Sunday. Sunday morning and Sunday night with me and Justin Bieber. This is Anthony Rendon and Boba Jett. Yeah, for sure Shane. Yeah, happy Labor Day weekend to you as well. Sandy El Contra, Kao Schwabba, going, going, gone. I thought it was great when we pulled that card when it was your nickname, you said, not Justin. Yeah, that's one of the best, dude. And that set and that tribute to Nicknames, that's awesome. Hope you killed the Fortnite sesh, we did. Got a dog last night, I clutched it out for me and Cortes and Sean. To get my back hurt after that one, the code I sent it to 99, Brian Bale. It's garbage. I had the most kills and I was the only one alive that didn't kill the last guy, the last two guys.  Mark McGuire.  Oh yeah? Yep. There's JV and Paul Molliter for the Blue Jays. Nice one there, two, 99, two, 99. Jordan Walker rookie, there's Gunnar Henderson rookie. Fresh faces, Nick Vespy and a gold Jordan Walker. It's a 50, nice one there. Favorite Labor Day weekend food? Probably, I like burgers, burgers are my way to go. There's Nolan Aronato. I made it to Escargo and Caviar. Caviar, yeah. Starling Marseille, Blue Jermaine Palacios to, do you have any credit for calling him? To 70 bucks, that'll go to my Rolls Royce and I'll get a taxi. Nolan Gorman, Fresh Faces, rookie. All right, on to the encased cards again. Got Max Meyer, Luis Arias, Marlins and Twins base. Blue Kodaisenga, nice one there for the Mets to 75. And a Gold Pudge, 3450 for the Marlins. Autos, we've got Alex Bregman. That is a base refractor auto, going to the Astros. And a Blue Jermaine Palacios, 72 is 75 for the Taggers. Nice one there, Detroit. Again, gotta get Mosaic moving, everybody's 16 to go. Let's get that sold out. All right, let's do last year's Cosmic first, 2022 Cosmic. Oh, smoke a couple racks of ribs and a whole chicken. God, that sounds good. I do like a good smoked and barbecued chicken as well. Cutch, I'm very into that. Orange, Josh Hader for the Brew Crew to 25. Nice one there on the Haterade. Robbie Ray, Nucleus for the Mariners. Viola, Hermon Marquez. Justin Verlander, Rocket Arms, CJ Abrams. Launch and Orbit, Manny Machado. You wanna look for college football at some point? Yeah. I don't know what time like the big stuff starts. Josiah Gray, Royce Lewis. There's not like a lot of great games, but it's also as college football, you know? Joe Ryan refractor, Lars Newt Barr, Anthony Rendon. Yes, man. This is 730. That looks like it starts. Blue, Luis Severino to 99. Blue Pulsar on foul on the TV remote. Louisville, Georgia Tech. That's supposed to be I think the best one of today. And then I don't know what's on 32. Central Michigan, Michigan State. Supernova, Javi Baez on the short print. Nice one there, congrats Tigers. Supernova, these would have a run of about 100 and a gold Kyle Schwarber to 50 for the Phillies. You could throw the hobby in the recap. Thanks, sir. Wander, Launch and Orbit, Max Scherzer. I don't know what I'm gonna have on Labor Day. I'm gonna be working on the taste, I don't know. This is really nice. There's Trey Turner and Jake Berger. Supernova strikeouts. Francisco Lindor, they still do on the wall. Coach refractor, Louisville, Spencer Tockelson. Stephen Kwan Rookie, Cal Raleigh. Yes, and Miguel Sano. The spot in eight, thank you, and a spot in elite. Luke with a spot in eight, thank you, Luke. And David with a spot over on late in gaming. We are down to 14, 14 to go, everybody. Let's get this filled up, 14 to go. Gonna get all of our mosaic brakes filled up. After that, not a lot of spots remaining overall. Mosaic, like I said, is really the one we just gotta do a little bit of work with. Once we're past that, it's pretty smooth sailing. I'm launching an orbit of Vladdy. Got a couple still to go on Star Wars. Some spots as well. Have a spread of barbecue. I might do that, honestly. Shane Boz, the 99. I might get some barbecue on Labor Day. Go to Sonny's, get some barbecue. Kenzie Gore, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Muller. Yeah, I do really enjoy barbecue. And Heather's not like the biggest fan, so whenever she's out of town, I'll always go and grab it. We'll get that in cheesesteaks. She doesn't like cheesesteaks. Oh, all right. Raisin' stock. Let me get this, let me get this started. She's not American. I know, J-Rod. Launched an orbit is Shohei Otani. True, I only work in the morning too, so I'll get something in my way home. Patrick Corbin, Nucleus. Maybe Machado. What's he doing? Yeah, true. Nicolato, Matt Olson, and Peter Lanza. Blue Pulsar is Royce Lewis, Rookie to 99, nice one, twins. That was correct. Shake of the gromp. I know, right?   She's not American, man. So dare she is. They're one of my favorite foods, overall. Josh Hader, Lindor, Mount Casper. You have the one of the best horses at house? No, I gotta try that. I know, I gotta try that. Was it Daniels or something? Yeah, it's for you. Freddy Freeman. We also have things we're gonna do for Thursday. I know, my dad. He goes in the pack. Anthony Rizzo and Josh, well, we do. I think we keep kind of local. Sure. You got Froggers right there. That'll be swamped, because that's free game night, too. Yeah. Yeah, so Froggers will be a madhouse. Alec Bohm. It is. Could do that. Calrally Nucleus Rookie, nice one there for the Mariners. I think Twin Peaks will be just mobbed. Oh, for sure. That'll absolutely be mobbed. I appreciate that, though. Yeah, man, I've got a lot of fittings. Yes, Alex, they're our personal tonight. They're well full, though, unfortunately. They're gonna be full for the next couple of days, and they're 100% gonna be full probably until Sunday. We are scheduled to finish at like 12.40 tonight, and there's a pretty hefty queue. So, I will get to as many as I can tonight. Do what I can. Bill Myers, Pat Scantino. Sod Riley Green, stars of the night. My hats wear hats, honestly, dude. Gunnar Henderson, Deverson Kossus, Edward Julian. Like, my, the place where I keep my hats, dude, it is so, it is just like, hack to the brim. Literally, huh, no pun intended, hack to the brim. Ha, ha, ha. Charming Grochettes. I didn't even try to do that on purpose. Launched an orbit wand soda. Just a funny guy, naturally. Funny guy, naturally. That's it. Yeah, I gotta talk to your father. Mike Trout, extra-terrestrial talent. I gotta get a dollar for this, dude. Ha, ha, ha. You're gonna lose cannon over here. There's Riley and Akunya, Sandy Alcantra. Yeah, no problem, Alex. You got it, buddy. No problem at all. Aqua Equinox, Alex Bregman to 199. Matt Chapman. Michael Harris, extra-terrestrial talent, and a Randy Rosarine. Refractor, Shaylene Lears. Hoskins Turner-Schwerber. Again, no dice roll yet. Sure there will be one, but as of right now, there has not been one. Launched an orbit kind of graffiti junior. Okay, Rod. Byron Buxton. There's one. Rushman, Witt, and Riley Green. Gonna do a dice roll. One, two, left, three, four, middle, five, six. Right for the rest of the break. It's gonna be a one. Gonna go to the left with Adley. Francisco Alvarez, rookie. Ha! Yes. Thanks, sir. Got a gold, Grayson Rodriguez, rookie. Nice one there for the Orioles. Going to Walt. There you go, Walt. Nice one there, buddy. Riley Green, rookie. Josh Young, and Mark Vientos, rookie. As well as the Falcon Varsho. Alex Verdugo, nucleus, and base. Corbin Carroll, extra-terrestrial talent. Here, Cole. Nicely bless you. Thank you, Nick. Matt Mervis, Beaty Alvarez Alonzo, and Shrey Turner. And again, 14 left on Mosaic, everybody. 14 to go. Let's get that sold out. 14, 25, 22 on our Mosaic half case breaks. Random team style. Jeremy Pena, extra-terrestrial talent. Nice one there for the Astros. Not gonna be numbered. That's really cool. He's got a nice sig, man. He's got a really nice sig. Man, on Jeremy Pena's autograph. Goldy, Masataka Yoshida, many Machado as well. Charlie Blackman, Sean Murphy. Trout and Otani. Drew Waters, Alex Bregman. Cade Cavalli, Taylor Ward, Refractor, and Reese Hawkins. Josh Young, Vienzos, Kodaisenga, and Pablo Lopez. Riley Greene, the Diamondbacks Trio, and Cal Raleigh. I won't even know if I hit. Gunner, Groshans, Tommy Edmund, on the Aqua Equinox for the Cardinals to 199. Christopher Morel, Will Benson, Blue Pulsar of John Carlos Stanton to 99. Yay, he's out, Noah. Still got Ichiro as playing. The Astros Tripple. I'm out of touch, I am, that's funny. Washington Orbit, Bobby Witt. The Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Manessus. Rushman Henderson, Duel. Green Space Dust, Max Freed to 75. What's up, Chris? Kenneth with a spot in eight, we're down to 13. Thank you, Kenneth. That's one of their braves, Logan O'Hoppy. Appreciate you, buddy. Kenneth, Dominic Fletcher, Byron Buxton. And base, Broth's Hoppa. You Darvish, two to go. Let's do a quick recap after racing Rodriguez. Potential number of the trash list in the chat now. Chris. Oh, yeah. Pena Witt Rodriguez and Andres Jimenez. Still a quick recap, guys. We add extra terrestrial Talonado of Jeremy Pena for the Astros. Paul Malder of Blue Jays, Alec Pinoa of Blue Jays. Superdome of Javi Baez, that'll be going to the Tigers. Buster Posey for the Giants. Cool one there, congrats again Giants. Alex Bregman, Jonathan India, Nolan Jones and Jermaine Palacios, this 75. That'll do it for the break, guys. Thanks again for the fill. Up next is Mo Zayek.


Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 25th of November 2019 and the time has just gone 1120 GMT and it's been a fairly positive start to the European training session today Once again, the US China trade story remains in the news I refer to some positive news on both sides from the US side Robert O'Brien, who is a US national security advisor Claims that it's still possible for a trade deal to be the phase one of the trade deal to be wrapped up between now and the end of 2019 and On the Chinese side, the Beijing government have announced their intention to introduce tighter tighter rules and regulations and restrictions in relation to intellectual property rights And this is something that's been of major importance to the US because every now and again China talks about buying more soya beans and more and more Pork from the US, but ultimately this trade war was never really about just China buying more and more agriculture goods off of the US International property rights is one of the major areas of concern for the US So if genuine progress can be made on this front, this is the sort of thing which could kind of push things along in terms of actual progress it's It's going to be it's likely that we're going to be talking about the US China trade story probably non-stop between now On the middle of December when the US are are still scheduled to have the another round of tariffs being imposed On Chinese goods, but you know, we keep hearing regularly that both sides, you know, are keen to make a deal By the dealers, right? So it's likely to you continue around but I think the into the IP Intellectual property story if it has a if it makes genuine progress is the sort of thing which can actually Bring the deal forward So this is so it's been a fairly quiet morning all of that What I'll now do is take a quick look at the week ahead look at the major Nonsense on a corporate and economic fund and then for that I'll take a look at some of the major markets So starting off with the week ahead on the weekend article can be found on our website If you go to see some markets calm under insights and news analysis You'll find the you'll find a bulk of the articles of myself on the way fellow analysts right that are posted to the site So looking at you tomorrow. We have fully of figures from top styles Over in the US. We have third quarter figures from Dick's Sporting Goods On Wednesday, we fully of figures from Marston's the end of the pub crowd here in the UK Well, the more important piece of information this week is the US third quarter GDP durable goods and core PC e-numbers They are at lunchtime on at lunchtime on Wednesday Mind you know the US has had some decent growth In the first quarter at 3.2 percent. I grew up by 2 percent in a second quarter We've had three interest rate cuts from the Fed of Reserve So the US so those especially the latter two industries cost are highly unlikely to actually trick the adult to be economy So in the grand scheme of things for as far as you know, big developed Western economies go US is still doing fairly well So and the last week for the Federal Reserve are giving off the impression that they're not going to be cutting rates They're gonna be keeping policy unchanged for the time being Speaking of major policies on Friday, we have Eurozone CPI figure So this month this would be the inflation figures for the month of November We're already in November at the moment. This is the monthly European Central Bank with began restarted They're government bond purchasing program and if not too long ago referred in the last few days refer from Christine the guard the new head of the ECB and she started talk about it you new European mixed policy and It really kind of says a lot when the person is in charge of monetary policy is that it's calling for fiscal policy You're fiscal policy being tax government government spending government taxation So we can says a lot about when this, you know, how much how much the person in charge of monetary policy can do if she's calling for a fiscal policy fiscal expansion Taking look ahead towards the back end of the week We also have third quarter growth figures from Canada and on Saturday at the weekend We're going to have the official figures from China in terms of manufacturing and non-manufacturing So what I'll do now is take a look at some of the major markets starting off in a few indices as I mentioned European economic markets have gotten off to decent decent start On a color they got a positive sounds coming from both the US and China in ratio to trade So we can a wider view That I say six seven weeks is then the foot's been brought you've been pushing higher Obviously that the highs that we've seen today have failed to take off the highs so far of a Early November we are pulling up pushing in that direction and if you do kind of unless you move on higher from here We could be looking at retesting this area here at the highest of early November Just which you come into play in around 7,430 odd actually we go beyond that you could be looking at everything this area here in around 7,470 Any move to the downside could find some support from say this blue line here They fit the moving average which comes to play at 72 84 We can see in a few occasions that metric acts as both support and resistance not long ago And metric has been important in the in the past and makes it more likely it'll be important in the future Although there are no guarantees It's only really if you kind of take out this area here in around seven thousand two hundred could then we be good Then we could then we begin to get a bit worried. I think you know what? Maybe we're gonna continue in the kind of wider trend that that's been in play since July But if you hold above seven thousand two hundred we could they you know We could easily see the market retesting seven thousand four hundred and beyond I'll take a look at what's going on over in Germany and not the German market is in a far better shape than the British market Not too long ago the German market hit it twenty two month high So get an indication of how strong the German market is the tax and we can see here the last two days The German market has been edging higher So if we do look to get a push on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting last week's time If in around thirteen thousand three hundred and seventy four there they're about and if you go beyond that we could then be looking at a The next area of a big area of potential resistance Turkey would play it in around here a level last thing in in late 2018 and that is in around thirteen thousand six hundred If we do in their hand managed to turn over the cells if you take out Last week's the law of late last week in around just north of thirteen thousand We could be looking any back down toward thirty thousand or this area here in around thirteen thirty twelve thousand nine hundred rate R80 and if you go beyond below that We could be looking at head down toward this zone here in around twelve thousand eight hundred chances We can see that area act as both you know support with resistance on a few occasions and support and one So we've you know that metric has been a path that region has been born in the past So keep an eye for keep an eye forward in the future should the market have a fairly sizable sell-off The US markets are in a far better shape than their European counterparts. So start off the Dow Jones Wasn't that long ago that the US markets around all-time highs and we're calling the Dow Jones open around 27 thousand nine hundred and fifty two They're there abouts, which is in a minor way I was to do far away from the old-time lives that were achieved back in the last you know middle last week So if you press on there from here, you could be looking at targeting twenty a thousand big cycle Big psychological number if you go beyond that you can be looking at targeting the recent all-time eyes 28,160 odd and if you go beyond that, you know, it would be a bunch out of territory. So tennis keep looking towards numbers like 28,200 300 400 so on and so forth But you know buying of the dip has proven to be a very popular strategy in recent weeks and months So if you do see any move to the downside, we could see fresh bars potentially end of the fold So if the market does manage to turn over on itself and push it a little lower Support could be found in this zone here in around 27,500 or down to about between 27,500 and 27,400 And even if you break below that would still be still the wider bullish trend will still be intact So we could find some support from this blue line here the 50 moving average which comes to play at 27,132 and we can see in a few occasions metric is actually that support in the past So it could be irrelevant in the future I'll take a look now what's going on on the S&P 500 and to be honest It's a fairly similar look in the situation whereby it was not long ago. The mark was at no time high and we're calling the market higher today So, you know, we're at too far away from you know in the near term. You could be a set could potentially be posting record highs So we're currently expecting the S&P 500 to open at 3,119 there there abouts and the recent high has been in around 3,133 so, you know, it's plausible in the next session or two We could be looking at our fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500 So the sentiment is clearly bullish So if you kind of look if you take out the recent record highs, you could be looking at targeting 3,140 50 so on and so forth and if you do manage to kind of move a bit lower from here support can be found from this zone here in around 3,000 and 65 Up even below that potentially at 3,025 and even if you go blah blah blah blah that rather It could head back towards the 50 movie average and that comes to play at 3,021 Take a look now a couple of big currency pairs starting off at the euro versus US dollar So the wider the very wide theme has been tried with the 19 very much to the downside and I'll grant it We didn't see a decent move bounce back in the euro versus the US dollar in In the middle of October but then partially driven by the fact that there was chatter of another interest rate copy in October which did which was delivered by the Fed reserve And now what we're seeing is the market appears to be turning over on itself again or back below the fifth That they move the average And we're not too far away from the kind of psychology important 110 mark So if you manage to have a fairly size of break below the no one 10 below the mid-November low We think you'll be looking at it back down towards one or nine are back toward the tour this year here in a one spot 08 79 Even the flip side we must approach a higher from here Resistance could be found from this yellow line here the one already moving average And we can see in a few occasions that act as resistance recently So it could be significant and that comes into play in a one spot 1084 and even if you go beyond that we'd really need to be taking off this area here in a one spot 11 79 or up towards gonna 112 really need to be taking off these areas before we could then begin to think you know what maybe The wider downward trend has come to an end and then we could be looking at our everything this area here in around one spot 12 49 I took a look now at the pound versus the US dollar So opinion polls continue to put Have recently shown that the conservative party are in the lead their pro business So that's helped British bound hang on to the gains that have been achieved in the last few months And to be honest we've seen I know We've seen the pound kind of largely trade kind of range bound in the last few weeks Just because the opinion polls are putting Boris Johnson's consumer party in front for business So it's good to the British pound but on the flip side. There's still a lot to still a lot a lot Still a lot certainly going on so some traders are a bit anxious to take you know a very aggressive post position on the British pound because you know opinion polls if 2016 as far as anything is I think some go I think some go very very wrong In terms of the opinion Expectations versus reality So that's why we're not seeing any kind of major going to move to the upside in the British pound But the wider upward trend is still very much in play if you do get a push on higher from here We could really can try to get taken off the recent high one spot 30 12 I think I'll be on that. We could make more of this over here in a one spot 31 78 Any move to the downside might find support from the kind of 128 or just thought about at one spot 27 It's 68 region and it's only really if you can have a size of break below The journey will be average this red line here in a one spot just north of 127 Then we begin to think you know what maybe the pound is heading lower Take a look now at what's going on Commodities starting off with the gold market. So gold has been a fairly decent upward trend The wider there's been very much to the upside on the gold market so what I'm gonna do now is In relation to gold the wider trend The very much to the upside has been it would not achieve a six-year high in September But as we can see the market has been pushing lower since then And what we can see here is it wasn't that long ago only in the last week The gold market fell to a three-month low. So after a six-year high He probably expects some bit of a bit of a natural pullback And that's what we've been seeing the last few weeks and months although although The the moves in gold have been fairly small Volatility is fairly low, but you know, we can't ignore the fact that it has been drifting lower So if we do manage to get off the racing load you know in around 1445 we could make a target in this area here in around 1430 Even the on the flip side, would you imagine putting a press on higher from here? potential areas of resistance could be coincide in around here between the kind of word moving average and the fifth moving average and that comes into play and They're gonna band in around 1482 1489 there they're about and it's only really if you're gonna break north of this area here in a 1517 take off those highs the highs of late October and early November It's only if you take off those highs because then we begin to think you know what? Maybe the recent downward trend has come to an end and the wider upper trend is to be back in play Take a look now. What's going on on Brent oil? So the oil market is often kind of like it kind of like I think it's kind of subject to the US China trade story China's major Importful of oil if things are looking good on the trade front it makes it more like it that China's gonna increase You know it's gonna keep up their appetite for oil So we can see here on the oil market since early October it's been broadly being driving higher Hasn't seen any kind of major move to the upside. We're still below this red line here The Trinity will be average so sentiment isn't is heady. It's heady. It's moving positive, but it's not really bullish But if you press on higher from here, we could be looking at our getting The 30 will be average at 64 spot 81 I'll move beyond that could take this area into play in a 65 spot 79 and a PD managed to kind of turn over on ourselves It's only really if you're gonna take out say 60 bucks or 59 spot 60 Because I would begin to think you know what maybe the kind of wider trend the wider bearish trend is falling back into play And then we could see further losses from there and lastly I take a look at WTI And it's a fairly similar concern to what we saw Brent whereby since early October the market's been no G higher Brent WTI to fairies in a better in a better state It has been if you draw a line between the lows of early October and mid October We get the strain line along here at markets comfortably above that in fact WTI is actually back above It's 20 moving average so you can see that it's a bit more bullish in the Brent market It's kind of making some gains to the upside and if you press on our from here We could look at our this is old here in around 59 spot 32 and we'll be on that could take Bring it 60 bucks per barrel into play if the market does manage you can a turn over on itself We could find support from this trend line here Which you couldn't play in around kind of 54 spots 65 there there abouts And if you have a pretty size of break below that we could look at then back end now toward the kind of 51 region the lows that we saw in early October Well, thank you for listening. That's all for me this week and please tune in next week. Thank you very much


Are we ready? All right. When that timer starts, we're starting. All right. So 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. We work it. Work it. Work it. Work it. Push. Push. Push. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go, guys. We are working. Get up in there. Let's go. 20 seconds left. 20 seconds. You could have had an opponent. 10 seconds. So the person that shoots the post is going to finish you up below. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Time. Squats. 4, 2, 1. Make sure you guys get low. Go. Go. Go. Right now.  Make sure you hit step. Let's go. Let's go. Yeah, but this is life for them. This is super life for her. But they might be getting tired, so they could fatigue real quick. She's getting tired right now. Catch your breath. 30 seconds. 30 seconds. Let's go. 25 seconds. Catch your breath. 20 seconds. Your first one. Let's go. Push. Press. Catch your breath. 5, 4. Nice and fast. It's power stroke. Not speed. Don't go fast. Pull it hard. Nice and easy. You don't get tired. 10 seconds. What number did she get? 276. Catch your breath. Catch your breath. Let's go. 4, 3, 2, 1. Yeah, you're going to be going after Brenner, Jesus, trashy. So you got time. Well, it might be sooner. It depends. We're still going to clean up, set up. It might be sooner or later. Warm up a good 15 minutes. 10 minutes. Warm up. I need, like, 30. Let me see what time is it. Oh, then. 10, 30. 10 and a half hour. You start warming up in a half hour. But 10, 30, warm up. Let's say 11, 15. You guys are cleaning. Lock in. It's already 10 on weight. We're already moving pretty fast. 10 seconds. I know. 3, 2, 1. Break. Catch your breath. Catch your breath. Catch your breath. You got 10 seconds. Get it. Touch that floor. Touch the floor. Go. Push this. Keep working. You got plenty of time to warm up. You're good. You got a good half hour. So if I are you, start warming up. You're going to have to Jesus and Brenner.  You're going to get a stash. So warm up, stretch, and you're ready to go. Come on. Test it out. That's it. Break. 5, 4, go. Come on, Steph. Come on, Steph. Right now. Let's go, Steph. Put it down. Put it down. Put it down. Control yourself. Pace yourself. Hold on. Don't go yet. Don't go yet. Pace yourself. All right? Take a deep breath. And get ready. You can do it, Steph. Let's go. Come on. Get down. Let's go. Let's go right now. Come on. You got this. Let's go. 25 seconds. Touch your chest and go. Focus. Nice and easy. All right. Use this as a break. Use it as a break. Use it as a break. Use it as a break. Which one do you want? Break. My helper. Let's go. What's next? What's next? Deadlift. Deadlift. Now this is what you like, right? This is deadlift now. Let's go. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. No, because she's only 130. 20 seconds. Finish it. Guys, it's your last exercise. Finish it right now. 20 seconds. Finish it. 15. Push it. Push it. Push it. Push it. Push it. Because this is like a few exercises and stuff like that. One minute on, one minute off. All right. Runner in Jesus Christ. Jesus Christ, you're next.


If you started testing or going down the path of CBD, was it something that was just immediately instant for both of you in terms of how you felt or did it take some time? Yes and no. I would say it's a really common misconception that CBD like you take and all of a sudden like you have, you know, aha moment in your life and I'd say over the course of like a couple of weeks, it was, you know, Matt as an example, say, hey, my knees and ankles are feeling better when we've been running so much. For me, Matt mentioned I had chronic migraines and it became like, hey, I used to get these every once a month. It's been three months now and I haven't had one. So it was more something like that. I mean, the way CBD works, if you can get into probably a subsequent part of the conversation. No, to Matt's point, it's very closely related to its cousin THC, the both cannabinoids, but works very differently. So yes and no, it's kind of a tough answer, but both, yeah. Got it. Yeah. And I think that's important because I think there are people who think, oh, let me put this in my cocktail and I'm supposed to feel something immediately. There's a lot of places here in LA that they'll give you a couple of drops of the oil in a cocktail and I'm like, what's the point of that? I'm not sure what you're trying to achieve. Yeah. It's good marketing strategy. Yeah. Our, a lot of our thesis from the beginning was like what kind of informed the branding and as getting to market was this is just so misunderstood. There's not an opportunity for a brand to create a really transparent, beautiful brand and also to educate people and it just wasn't happening.  So it's true. I think the hard part of this too is like, so you see an opportunity, you realize there's a lot of let's call it bad products or bad marketing in the space. You're thinking maybe we can do something different at the same time. The barriers to entry in this market are zero in some ways, right? It's like anyone can do it and so that poses, right? And then we have science which plays an interesting role. Let's jump into what kind of what we were just talking about, right? So give people a sense of what it does, why it works, what is the science? Why does it take, I think it takes different for different people. I've also heard that, especially, I guess there are some combinations where some people do use THC and some people will feel that effect, but if you remove the THC, some people don't feel that. And I just want to jump into the science. I know a little bit, obviously not nearly as much as you guys, but would love to jump into, obviously you guys have done some research. If you get deep fast, so I guess I'll start and I'll start not deep and we all trivialize it and we can kind of go from there. Where do we want to start? So cannabis, right? Hemp and marijuana are both part of the plant family of cannabis. Our CBD is extracted from the leaves and flowers of the hemp plant. The way CBD works and again, for any of the science buffs out there, I'm sure I'll get some messages, but this is not exactly how it works. And I'm trivializing it, but think of your endocannabinoid system, which is a system in our body that it's pretty interesting. We didn't even know as humans that we had this in us until like the late 90s. And think of that. It's called cannabinoid A, right? I think cannabinoid A, yeah, yeah, yeah. So think of that system like almost regulating everything going on in your body. I use to trivialize it. I call it the brain-body connection, if you will. And over time, when we're stressed out, we've had tough workouts, whatever's going on in our life, that connection gets frayed and broken. And there's a lot of science now that's pointing to the fact that when that connection is messed up and those receptors aren't finding the way that they're supposed to, it leads to a lot of chronic issues, you know, inflammation, stress, anxiety, insomnia. And what's really unique about CBD and what's been so profound about it is we've seen that high quality CBD has the exact same receptors in it that we have in our body. So think of them almost like these little spark plugs that are reigniting this broken system within your body and putting everything back together. The analogy we always use is think of it almost like premium engine oil that you take throughout your day to bring your body back into balance. And that's why there's so many profound issues and why it's so transformative to Matt's point. You know, it could be the biggest wellness of our decade or even of our lives. It's helping people with stress and anxiety, with chronic inflammation, it's helping them sleep deeper. It's all these things. So at the same time, when you're early on in an emerging market, you get this is snake oil, but really it's just it's bringing your body back into balance into the state of mind it should be. So that was like part science, part storytelling. But that's that's like the, I mean, we can get a little bit deeper if you'd like. I mean, the thing I saw, so it's funny, we have a lot of experts on the podcast and somehow I've managed to learn from all of them and then regurgitate it. But the best example I saw, it was a I'm pretty sure it's part of the research paper in the 90s. And it was the example was was being given that today. If you if you think about your body, just like a set of like light strings or something, right? And if this light string over on this in this quadrant, call it light string six is out, then we create a medicine. So a medical company comes and they say, oh, you look depressed. OK, here's a little depressive, right? So let's click light six is for depression. Here's a drug, essentially, that that makes you kind of numb as that area. But in that, there's a bunch of symptoms. And so light four or five and eight aren't feeling as good anymore because the thing that you're trying to do to solve light six is problematic. And then let's say light one is now out. So now I'm taking another drug and basically what ends up happening is my whole system, right? And so my whole brain, my whole human being, this is being is off because I'm treating one thing, but I'm getting all these side effects. And effectively, what CBD does, according to the research paper, is it kind of helps the system, but it completely heals it without any of these negative symptoms. And so today, the market exists where problem A, take drug A, create problem C, D, E, F, G. And now by the time, you know, now I have like a supplement pack of multi not vitamins drugs just to get through the day. And it seems like CBD is, right? Is that accurate? That's kind of the way it is. Yeah, OK, it's a cool analogy. Yeah, just, you know, think of your ECS as just like its response for keeping everything in balance and working to heal different, you know, whether it's inflammation, digestion, stress, sleep, all these different things. And so CBD helps your ECS, which is then helping like what you describe as whole web of stuff. So that's why it can be, I don't want to call it like a fix or cure all, but that's why it helps with such a menu of things or why you see so many benefits associated with it. Because it's it's impacting something that is that impacting such a great like they're operating system in a way. Hey, everyone, thanks for checking out that clip. If you enjoyed it, be sure to hit the like button down below. And if you're interested in hearing the full episode, it's out right now on our YouTube channel. We've had a lot of great guests come on this show before and we've got a lot of great guests coming up in the future. So hit subscribe so that you don't miss a single episode. And one final note, we're always looking for new ideas and new companies feature on the show. So if you know of someone or know of a company, write us a comment down below letting us know who they are and what they do. We'd be happy to have them on the show. Till then, I'll just be here waiting for your comments. So see you later.


So this one says write a buffer reaction equation using a weak acid, weak acid and its conjugate base. Okay, so you're going to need to know your weak acids, but those are what you're going to memorize tonight. You're going to memorize the weak acids. Here are four weak acids that you could potentially use in this equation. In this case, since the practice exam uses the seeded acid, let's do a different one. Okay, let's do carbonic acid. So carbonic acid H2CO3, if it's dissolved in water, this is aqueous. If it's an acid base or with a weak acid that's a buffer, it's got to be an equilibrium. Because if it's not an equilibrium, then when you add hydroxide or protons into here, it won't go back and forth. Okay, so it has to be an equilibrium. That's why you need a weak acid. Okay, and so all you've got to really do is figure out, okay, I've got a weak acid. Here's my weak acid. I'm going to combine that with water. So now I've got to figure out, well, what's the conjugate base of this and what's the conjugate acid of this? Okay, so remember, this is your acid, this is your base here. So if we looked at this, right, the conjugate base, the conjugate base of this is going to be just this carbonic acid minus one of its protons, HCO3 minus. And then, of course, you're going to have to write the conjugate acid of your base, which is just the hydronium ion, H3O plus aqueous conjugate acid. That's why you have to do carbonic acid. This, in fact, is the buffer system that's used in our blow. The one thing I want you to be aware of is the negative charge here. Okay? How can I figure out that that's a negative charge? Okay? So what am I doing to this? I'm removing an H plus, right? So if I take H2CO3 and subtract an H plus from that, right? I'm going to, that's going to go to HCO3. Okay, that part probably is more obvious. But if you remove a plus sign, right, that means, so this thing's neutral, so if you're removing one of the positive charge, that means you're going to get a negative charge there. Okay? So just like with your water here, you're adding an H plus, right? You've got H2O plus H plus. So you're going to have H3O. Okay? That part's obvious. So you've got H, H2O, so it's going to be H3O, and you're adding a plus. You put your plus. That's where you get those charges on and come to get this. And come to get this.


In this video, we will show you the parts of the nitrogen rack and how to use it to perform a reaction on the nitrogen. The nitrogen rack has multiple parts in it that make sure that it works. First of all, here at the bottom is your connection for the nitrogen from your fume hood. And on the other side, there's the connection for vacuum, from either the vacuum pump or from the vacuum line in your fume hood. We'll go first through the pathway of the nitrogen. So the nitrogen comes in here, and then there's a pressure reduction that makes sure that the pressure of nitrogen is always slightly above one bar, but not so high that it will blow out, blow your reaction. Then the nitrogen will go through this line into this column of P-25 on ice, P-25, with a blue indicator or called C-Ca-Pent. And on the top it's already blue, but on the bottom it's still white. And if it turns completely blue, that means that it won't dry your nitrogen anymore and you have to replace the P-25. After that, it will go through this line into this bubble counter, and here you will see bubbles forming that proves that there is actually gas flow through the system. And then at the bottom here, it connects to this double manifold, which you can connect to your reaction. The double manifold is also connected with an extra pipe to this over pressure valve, so for example if your reaction produces gas, the over pressure valve will release that pressure so there will be no pressure build up in your reaction. The other thing that is attached to the double manifold is your vacuum, so vacuum pump or the vacuum line from your system, and that's on the front side of your manifold. And you can use these tabs to connect either vacuum or nitrogen. So to show how this works, here we have one of the tabs, and you can see that there are two lines. So one that goes, if you rotate it like this, will connect the front to the bottom part. If you rotate it the other way around, it will connect the front to the top part. And if you then rotate one side, it will connect to the nitrogen, and if you rotate it to the other side, it will connect to the vacuum. It's always a good idea to test which side of this tab is nitrogen and which side of the tab is vacuum before actually attaching it to your reaction. And now we will show an example setup with the nitrogen rack in the few months. So here we have our setup, a simple trenec flask with a stirrer and a male adapter connected to the nitrogen rack. And we will show you how to connect this under an atmosphere. If your reaction requires you to do it under dry conditions, make sure you dry your glassware in the oven overnight and leave it to cool down under vacuum. So now we will show you how to cycle the nitrogen vacuum line to make sure that your reaction is properly under nitrogen. So this is the nitrogen rack I just showed you, but now it's connected to the nitrogen from the few months, the vacuum from the few months, and here it's connected to our system. So first we need to check if the system is actually working. So everything is connected, our nitrogen line is on, and the first check we want to do is to see if there's no bubbling when everything is closed, because if it would be bubbling now, it means there's a leak somewhere in the system and you need to get it fixed. As you can see, no bubbling, so our system is now airtight. And to double check that actually everything is working and which side of the tab is nitrogen and which side of the tab is vacuum, we can just test an open line. So first I will rotate the black one down and you see that it starts bubbling. And if I feel with the back of my hand, I actually feel an airflow, which means that the nitrogen is now coming out. If I close the tab, you can see that the bubbling stops.  So this is the vacuum. So now we know which side of the tab is what and all tabs are labeled in the same way, so this is also the same way for this. So the black one is nitrogen, not labeled as vacuum. So we have our system and our nitrogen. So now we're going to cycle the system on the vacuum and nitrogen to make sure that all the air in the system and all the moisture in the system is gone. And to do that, we first put our empty flask on the vacuum. So not with your agents in there or solvents in there because they will start boiling immediately if you put it on the vacuum. So don't add any of your chemicals, but first put your flask on the vacuum. The bigger the system is, the longer it will take to go to full vacuum. If you use a pump, you will hear the pump change pitch when it's done sucking the full vacuum. Or you can check the monitor in the house system to see if the pressure is stable again. When it's stable, you can close the tab and slowly open it towards the nitrogen for it to fill with nitrogen again. You don't open it immediately because if you open it at full force, then you have a full system on the vacuum and it will connect to the nitrogen line and it will pull a lot of nitrogen in and sometimes your bubbling will break and the oil will go all over the place. You can slowly open it further. You can see vigorous bubbling now. And then we put it on the full nitrogen until the bubbling stops. If the bubbling would remain bubbling very vigorously, it would mean that there's a leak in your system. And to prevent leaks from systems, the best thing is to grease all your joints to make sure that there's no leaks. As you can see here, there's no bubbling anymore. So there's no leak in my system or very tiny moments of bubbling and it's completely filled with nitrogen. And we'll cycle this another two times. So back to vacuum and when it's at full vacuum, you go back to filling it with nitrogen. And as you can see now, the bubbling almost stopped. So we'll close it back and then go back to vacuum. And when the system is fully on the vacuum, we will do one last cycle and fill it up with nitrogen again. And now we have our reaction flask under nitrogen and we replaced all of the oxygen in there and we can start the reaction under nitrogen and under inert atmosphere. This would also work with argon or other gases that are not normally in air. If you are going to add compounds to your flask, make sure you do always do it with the nitrogen tap open. So that no oxygen can get into your flask. And if during the reaction this white cica-pant turns blue, then you will have to replace the P205. Well, you can't do it during the reaction but when you're done with your reaction, replace it with new dry cica-pant and destroy the old cica-pant on ice, which is also labeled on multiple places on the nitrogen rack because this is phosphoric acid and it will react heavenly with water. So always destroy it on ice and then throw it away. This is how you perform a reaction under inert atmosphere.