Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another weekend edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. First and foremost, I want to thank all the good dads out there. Usually it's something weird to say, but instead of wishing a very happy and healthy father's day to all the great dads, I want to actually thank them. It doesn't take a lot to create a child. It really doesn't. 30 seconds of glory baby. But it does take a real man to raise one. And I want to thank all the dads out there that are just not there in title. You know, they're there to mold our next generation. Everybody keeps talking about the importance of the family structure and the importance of raising your children to be leaders and to be just good people. And so I want to thank all the great dads out there. And I really am fortunate enough to be in a position that I am there for my kids. I'm there on a daily basis. I see them growing. I see them, you know, turning into little young adults. And yesterday was a perfect example of why you live now for your children. You don't live for yourself anymore. So yesterday was my daughter's 11th birthday, right? She turned 11 years old, which is amazing. But she turned 11 years old yesterday and she turns to me and says, well, basically joking around. You know, Father's Day weekend is hijacked. It's gone. It's basically we already know it's her birthday. So she turns to me and says, well, Daddy, I want to go to the beach. And I said, well, it's the weekend. It's going to be very, very crowded plus, you know, the corona thing, all that stuff. Please, Daddy, I want to go to the shore. I want to go to the shore. So I had two choices. I could either go to Brooklyn, right? Drive to Brooklyn, to the Coney Island, Brighton Beach area. But again, the parking there is, fellow you guys who know that area, it's impossible. The parking is nuts. Or I had a shot to go to the Jersey Shore. There's a lot of point entrances to the Jersey Shore. And there's a reason why I'm saying this right now. So I knew I was going to hit crazy traffic.  Okay, so I'm in the car literally two, two and a half hours that the absolute worst traffic. I get there how in God's name that I actually find the spot. I actually found the spot instead of throwing it into a lot, but I found the spot. And as soon as I got out of the car, or actually the truck, but as soon as I got out of the truck, there was thousands and thousands of people. And the reason why I bring that up, if you start looking at what the market did for the last two weeks or so, we always knew a second wave was going to come, right? The cold corona thing. For me, I've been pretty much home for the last five months. If you see what's going on, every video you see me wearing a hat, and there's a reason why. I haven't gotten a haircut now in so long. Again, I've been trimming my sides there and there. But again, it's not the end of the world, right? But slowly, but surely we started seeing cases pop up now aggressively in the last two weeks. You can make it, you know, you can make the case of people were going to Vegas, the protesters, everything combined, right? Social distancing starting to lag a little bit. But slowly, but surely starting to seeing very, very aggressive cases pop up on a regular basis. And we talked about last week that Wednesday into Thursday session that we saw it happening. And there was a really aggressive move down that that was down like 7% for that one day. And the next day, a lot of the beta names followed down. So we started seeing things pop up here. But until you first see it firsthand, I got out of the car. I'm talking about this thousands of people on the sidewalk, like everywhere, like literally everywhere. We got onto the boardwalk of Sandy Hook. And there was literally, I mean, you couldn't find an inch of space surrounding by people. And that's all that took me, you know, I wasn't going to be there anyway. So I was like, you know what? I was there for 20 minutes, literally 20 minutes. And I was horrified. I went home. I drove home. So I drove around three and a half hours for about 20 minutes. And but you know what? My kids got it. And before you turn around and say, well, that's crazy, right? That's absolutely nuts. This is just an exaggerated flu. Let me say this much. Okay. And I appreciate everybody's opinions. That might be an opinion if you live in a smaller town, right? Not congestedly populated. That's great. Okay. I get it. Okay. If you live in the tri-state area or any really big metropolitan city, it's very, very quickly to get this thing. Now, before you turn around and say again, and again, you have every right to say we're exaggerating. This is nonsense. It's the press. Okay. Let me say this much. I had two childhood friends in the last two months die of Corona. Okay. These are guys in their 40s. And I had a third one who survived, but he was on a ventilator for like three weeks. Okay. Two of those, you know, two of those families don't have fathers. Okay. I have no idea if they had underlining circumstances, if they didn't. But again, my job, again, especially on this father's day is to make sure, you know what, I'm doing whatever I can to protect myself. Okay. So I could be there for my children. So my children don't have to grow up without a father.    And the point for me, for my life going forward is to making sure their lives are exponentially better than mine was growing up. So the idea that this is just an exaggerated flu. Okay. Number one, who are you going to take care of my kids when I'm gone? Unfortunately. Right.  I get that. Right. I get it. I get the mortality rates are a lot less than, you know, maybe the presses. I get that part. Okay. And at the end of the day, the question is who is going to raise your kids? Okay. If you're not around. So for all you guys who believe in the whole Corona thing is a myth. And this, that, the other thing, just always think from the parent point of view and especially from this father's day, right? From this edition of the father's day update, I think all the dads in agreement will agree that it's better to be safe than sorry and watch your children grow up, then be completely reckless and have kids growing up without their father. Again, the choice is pretty simple. Again, it's all about making adult decisions. So let's talk about the market, right? So if you've noticed what happened the previous week, as soon as we got any type of Corona news, market started, you know, really getting aggressive to the downside. We go again, we saw that 7% move single day in the Dow, followed by the next day beta got pulled up down as well. So pretty aggressive moves. What I noticed about this week, and I usually this past week and super action last week, really, really super action. But what I noticed about last week was, and again, I usually never talk about the Dow, but this is, you know, this is kind of important. If you look at the Dow, the Dow was up 1% for the week. Now, why is this kind of a big deal here? If you look at what happened, and again, I pay attention to data. I always pay attention in the afternoon sessions, what potentially could be kind of a big picture. And what I've noticed last week was, and again, you could kind of see it now for the last one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. So six out of the last eight days, the Dow closed lower than it opened. Okay. And again, you can make the case and turn around and say, well, what's the big deal? It's just profit taking. Look at the market run. It's been an amazing run. It absolutely has been, right? Absolutely amazing run. But when you look at the hard data and you start looking deep into the numbers of this hard data, you'll start seeing some very, very aggressive undertones. And if you look at how the market acts, very, very aggressive session, right? You have very, very aggressive sessions in the mornings. Again, if you are a trader, you're trying to really capture as much alpha as possible from the first three, three and a half hour session. Again, I've been really preaching this for years and years and years. The best way to kind of elongate your career, especially in the beginning when you are trying to build the foundation, trying to get your feet planted firmly in this business, you're trying to extend your shelf life. What you're trying to do is get as much information. If you're trading in the afternoon, again, it really depletes your ability to kind of elongate your career because again, all the values in the morning.  The afternoon is a nightmare, especially if you're trying to create alpha when it's not there. Ranges are contracting, more people are tired, it's an area that people are positioned for the next day. And there's a better chance that you're going to give back most of your day or all your day in the afternoon than you are in the morning. And in the next 30 to 30 to 40 to 50 to 50 to 50 to 60 years, try to avoid the afternoon if you can. The stock that you like, the play that you like, it's going to work for 30 or 50, 60 cents in the afternoon, it can work for three, four, five, $12 in the morning. Just kind of a bit of advice. But what we still, we really started seeing though in the afternoon is stocks really started gassing out, like really, really gassing out and started to really close at the lowest. Even the strongest names back to back out, very, very aggressive either upgrades, whatever the case may be, they started closing at the lowest. And let me give you guys kind of points and interest. So Apple, right? Apple gets upgraded, you know, upgraded on Friday, right? Stock gaps up, very, very aggressive and rolls over. Facebook, very, very strong move. And again, these are really, really strong pivots we had on Friday. We'll talk about the individual pivots, but I just want to talk about the process.  And the video, the same thing, big, big pivot on Friday, right? Really, really big pivot on Friday. You know, stock goes from the 372 pivot to 378, and the stock is $10 off its high. So the moral of the story is something is wrong, right? Like something is wrong. And now that we have our evidence, some more aggressive cases of corona, okay, all these headlines that we were really embracing, right? They don't care, right? This is not the Robinhood market, the Robinhood bubble. This is really the bubble of buy anywhere and sell high, right? Isn't that the real bubble? It's not the Robinhood effect.  Basically, somebody always dumber will you will come behind and bit up your stock. So the idea that the market will negate bad news over and over and over again going forward is a little bit naive. And again, we're trying to get facts, we're trying to get data that you know what, maybe this is starting to come to an end. So again, the easiest way to figure out that the market is kind of trying to stall out or give us signals that, hey, maybe this is slowly but surely going to come to an end, is watching price action on the strongest stocks. And when you see price action on the strongest stocks and they start to fail, that's when again, macro information, macro environment starts to become important again. Again, another case in point. Look at beyond, right? Really strong pivot on Friday. It takes out the 161 area, explodes for $5 and then sells off 8 for the rest of the day. And again, it's not like the market got destroyed for 1,000 1,500 points, okay? Materialistically, there was nothing there. It's just showing you slowly but surely that macro environment is changing or starting to change. The news that was negated a week ago, three days ago, a month ago, is starting to be a little bit more real. And now that I really saw the first case of what potentially could happen and everybody talks about the second wave and you can make an argument, well, when the hell did the first wave go away, okay? But once I saw thousands and thousands of people, literally on top of each other, very few had masks, okay? This is when I knew, you know what? This market could be changing. Time to get, again, I don't want to use the word passive, but get a little more smarter, right? Get a little bit more adult-like, maybe go into more preservation mode. I think that's starting to be on the table. And I think if you go into this week and you still believe that you can buy anywhere and sell higher, you might be really, you know, really brought to some really big quality very, very quickly. And I think going into this week, and again, usually I would say for the last like, you know, three, four months or so, I'm giving the buyers the benefit of the doubt. Even though I am, I think there's a very, very specific, okay, very, very specific guidelines that I want to play this week. And if you look at the cues on the surface, there's nothing wrong, right? We're literally like a couple of bucks away from the 52-week highs, but the most important part is I'm seeing on the stronger names ripping up in the morning and to give it all the way back in the afternoon that is a warning sign. Now, again, maybe it translates into tomorrow, maybe it doesn't, maybe this still extends for another week, a month, a year, we don't know. Again, I'm not, you know, I'm not in the business to predicting what's going to happen next, but I am in the, you know, I am in the very, very, you know, very, very strong position of protecting my capital and protecting understanding what potentially could happen next. Obviously, we need confirmation to the downside. So if you look at the groups that are strong and that are weak this week because of this new rise of aggressive, you know, aggressive wave of corona starting to build back, and it's not even slowly anymore. It's starting to build back pretty aggressively. Again, we have to go back into our mental memory bank. Again, what industries are we going to suffer? All the cruise ships already said that, well, we're going to be on domestic ports until September 15th. So again, you start looking at the cruise ships, right? Look how close, right? You have NCLH, Norwegian Cruise Line, right? A day away from confirming to really, really getting hit. You see CCL, right? Same thing. These are the same charts. You could literally pick your favorite cruise ship, your favorite airline, right? Look at this triple bottom here on rising support. If this whole channel gets confirmed, this CCL will get destroyed. If you look at RCL, the same thing. These are the same charts over and over again. This is massive bottom here. It keeps on holding. If it starts building that bottom, it's going to get destroyed. Look at this, you know, look at the airlines, right? Look at the airlines. These are exactly the same charts, the charts that kept on holding this rising support and kept on moving back up. Again, you could just draw this imaginary trend line. These are all lower highs on the daily. What happens when daily support gets met with confirmations, more sellers and buyers, right? It's not a mystery. Stocks will go lower. And you saw that with Boeing, right? You saw that with Boeing on Friday. And again, it didn't take out a macro channel, but it did take out the five day.  Again, is this kind of the preview of what's going to happen this week? Again, maybe, maybe not. But again, our job is not to predict what's going to happen three months from now. Our job is to put ourselves in a position to be ready, right? To be ready if this thing plays out and for us to capitalize on the downside. Now again, you turn around the flip side. You know, what companies are going to get more strength, more business, okay? More eyeballs, more attention from the Robinhood bubble. I'm joking around. Right? So again, you start looking for the biggest benefactors. Again, if you notice the stocks that were strong yesterday, right? They were Netflix, okay? The stay at home theme. They were Chewy, correct? They were Chewy. These are some, you know, really good pivots there. ZM is still one of my favorites. Amazon, if you look at Amazon again, it traded, the only reason it came down, it traded right into the 2700 supply. You look at Peloton, right? These are all, again, plays that were benefit from the stay at home movement. So you have to start thinking, but you have to start thinking in the most simplistic way. Again, there will be opportunity to the downside. There will be opportunity to the upside. Somebody has to always chase something to the upside. And there's always have to be the ability to shake investors out with fear to the downside. That's your driving force when you're trading long and trading short. So going into this week, it's a pretty simplistic approach. Sell bias on airlines. And again, you can make it a broad, you can make it a broad case study. I am personally looking at airlines and cruise ships just to kind of narrow it. You don't need to do everything. But again, you can look at leisure, travel stocks, hotels, you know, movie, anything. Anything to do, restaurant stocks, anything to do that people will not leave their house for again. That's obviously in play. And anything to do with the stay at home movement obviously would be attracted to the natural play to the upside. So that's kind of our game plan for at least for Monday and we'll see how things play out. But a very, very aggressive week. That was kind of a, that was kind of our plays pretty much towards the end of the week. Again, the most amazing part when we saw it was still the really aggressive strength, especially in the morning. Again, you really don't need to bring your brain cells to the afternoon just because there's so much value in the morning. And again, this market continues to be really, really good. But again, let's not be naive to think it's going to last forever. And again, it could last past this conversation. So if you look at Friday's pivots again, just continued strength from the whole week. These beta stocks are just nuts. The stock for me, my biggest play throughout the whole week was Roku. Roku was an absolute monster this week. If you've been watching this video, literally call buying non-stop, 20, 30, 40 dollar out of the call, out of the money. We even saw July 240 calls being traded. And again, the option flow is just kind of a preview of what potentially can happen. And these stocks are a perfect model of the order flow. So great week. I thought it was a great week. I know a lot of you guys did incredibly well especially on these beta names. And let's talk about them. So Netflix obviously 1021. This continues to be the big level on Tesla. Obviously never got there. Netflix is poised, man. It really is poised for the week. This thing triggered late in the day. I was already logged off. 453 needs to build. But if you look at Netflix, this is it closed a little bit above that 53 level. But it really is setting up for a 52-week high. And if there is any more headlines of potential states going back into the kind of lockdown, this is going to be one of the natural plays. So again, this is a stone throws away from 52-week highs up a little bit from the close. We still saw some pretty aggressive call buying the 460s for next week. The 470s, the 480s, the 485s. No, not excuse me. The 465s. 460s, 465s, 470s, 475s. So a lot of attention on Netflix. I still really, really like it for next week. This was huge on the video. 372 needs to build. Rejected two times. Here is the video. Just a monster move on the video. So here is the whole channel here. 372, 372, 372. Stock went to almost 378. Big move there on the video. BYND continues to be just a monster. It really is starting to turn into one of my favorite traders. Just a really great name. 161 needs to build. Here was BYND. Here is the 161. 60 minute. 161 was the high here. 161 was the high here. It took out 161. It went to almost 166. So big move there on beyond. And again, this is how you know stocks are stalling out. Like Apple got upgraded on Friday. This could have been a monster move. 355.50 was a 52 week high it needs to build. So if you look at Apple, right, this didn't turn out to be one of these greatest moves. Because again, there's something wrong when stocks get stalled out and start going lower. So it takes out the 355.50 goes to 357. Yes, was there cash flow in the stock? A dollar down half in the stock? Absolutely. But again, the last thing you want to see if you are continuously talking about the bull case is a stock taking out the 52 week highs and selling off $10 off its highs. Just again, just naturally doesn't make sense. Again, this is kind of my warning signs going into this week. Roku not only did 129.30 129.90 130 work, we got along off the bottom of the channel here. And again, this is what we do in the live webinar. I usually don't put these stocks into the Twitter feed because again, I like to keep them with natural pivots. But here was an unbelievable buy here on literally on the bottom channel here. If you notice here, this is where we talk about dip buying all the time on 60 minutes support. Every single time the stock gets 60 minutes support, it explodes. It hits 60 minutes support. We got along on the 60 minutes support. And not only did this thing go red to green, this thing just exploded to 132. So an amazing move all week on Roku was great. Again, Facebook 238.20 needs to build. And again, here's a perfect example. Great pivot, right? It took out the 238.20 went to 241. Again, right? Went to 241. Fantastic move for Facebook.  Again, warning signals. Again, these are we were trying to get the data for next week. 199 on Boeing didn't obviously never got there. There was a great pivot on Boeing through the downside. We'll show you that in a second. So the video was really, really good and it turned it to be really monster. Roku turned it to be a beast. Beyond, you know, again, 163 went to 160, almost 166. Take on the way up. And again, this is, this is this was a Roku when it broke 130. I said, hey, there's a shot against the 134 got to like 132 and change. But hey, just a phenomenal move on Roku is awesome, really, really awesome. Again, another play on the stay at home movement or again, you know, you never know. There might be some sort of chatter going around vaguely. I heard some rumors on Google. Chui again, continuing with the theme. Look, they're coming for the July 60 calls. It needs to build 49 50 macro. And here is Chui. Chui had a great move on Friday, right? So it took out the 49 and it went to 51 and change. Again, stay at home stocks. Again, that's the theme. Money flow in stay at home stocks, money outflow, pretty much everything else. Obviously, the whole leisure industry obviously is on the chopping block as well. Facebook rocket. Yeah, I mean, look, the markets on fire, right? And then the market came in. So great moves, just great moves here. Again, here's another case and point of stocks trading into rising support. I go just in case it gets down to 995. That's the five day moving average should hold and bounce. Tesla got down to the 95 area and then bounce to like 101, 102. And obviously, again, on any bounce play always take on the way up and use break even as you stop. And obviously got sold off a little more into the close ZM I still really, really like, you know, beyond was very, very, you know, very, very aggressive. So very good move, you know, very good move. I think APT also flew off the watch list from that 1650, I think went to like 17 and change. So really good, you know, really, really aggressive names here. And here was Chooley's on fire and this is the last pivot of the day.  Boeing 187 keeps holding support if it builds below can flush and flushed, right? Here's flushed. Here's the here's the 87, right? Here's the 87 area and went all the way down to like 184 and change, obviously setting up for another continuation bottom move going into Monday. So again, I think the key of this market is you have to stay woke, as the kids would say, stay woke. Again, take it one day at a time, one trade at a time. There is no magic formula if you know, you can't trade with blind folders on this is a new market. Okay, this is an absolute new market that runs on irrational behavior. But again, irrational behavior is the new normal. So going into this week, I am starting the week sell bias on pretty much everything, but especially cruise ships, airlines that whole leisure entertainment play again, I'm going to focus on the cruise ships and the airlines obviously expands to the whole market. And obviously, if there's more COVID news, we want to pay attention continue pay attention to the COVID stay at home name. So great job last week. The market's been incredible, but again one day at a time, one trade at a time. Again, I want to thank all the fathers for being great human beings molding their children into the next leadership role of this universe, not even this country, just this universe and the most important thing is continue to be a positive role model for your children. Guys, stay blessed have a great father's day and God's help, we'll see you all tomorrow. Take care. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading you're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free ps60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.


Hello everyone, my name is Pedro Bin and in this lightning talk I will present a definition of pre-registration and then I will explain the importance of this practice in the context of knowledge production and finally I will suggest some extra materials for you to learn more about pre-registration. First of all I would like to start by presenting a working definition of the practice so pre-registration is a permanent time-stamped record of a research plan. In other words, this practice consists in documenting the methodological and statistical decisions involved in the design of a study and as the prefix pre-suggests this documentation must occur prior to any data collection or analysis and must be submitted to a public repository. This is a very brief definition, however it highlights the main features of pre-registration. So a pre-registration it is time-stamped, it is permanent, it is publicly available, sometimes it is available after a period of embargo, it details the methodology of a study, it presents a statistical analysis plan and it occurs prior to data collection or data analysis. Having this definition in mind some of you might be thinking why should I pre-register my study? This is an important question indeed because pre-registration is not one more redundant step in the research cycle. On the contrary, this practice is a pragmatic tool for improving the robustness of scientific results due to its potential of reducing the occurrence of three well-known problems in the scientific field. Publication bias, analytical flexibility and the confusion between exploratory and confirmatory research. Publication bias also known as the file-draw problem refers to the fact that more studies are conducted than published and there is a preference for publishing positive results. Thus, the peer-reviewed literature is biased towards positive and novel findings. Analytical flexibility also known as p-hacking refers to the researcher's degrees of freedom under use of the statistical procedures and data transformation as well as on the selective report of confirmatory results. Consequently, research outcomes may be misleading due to the possible presence of type 1 or type 2 errors. The false positives and false negatives respectively. And finally, the confusion between exploratory and confirmatory research is dangerous to the scientific enterprise in the long run. Reporting exploratory studies as they were confirmatory studies prevents the self-correctness process of science and promotes a distorted model of science. And considering such problems often present in the research cycle, the practice of documenting the methodological decisions of a study before the data collection or analysis has the potential to reduce publication bias to avoid analytical flexibility and to distinguish exploratory from confirmatory research. And by mitigating the aforementioned problems, pre-registration can improve rigor and reproducibility rates of the studies. And if you are interested in how pre-registration can benefit your own research in the education field, I recommend you reading an article written by Brian Mosec, Charles Eversall, Alexander DeHavne and David Meller entitled The Pre-registration Revolution. This is an important reference if you want to know more about the practice and if you want to understand the implications of this practice to your own research. And also, I recommend watching a video available in the Center for Open Science YouTube channel, The What, Why and How of Pre-registration. In this video, Alexander DeHavne and Sarah Bowman provide a step-by-step guide to pre-register your research in the Open Science framework, a platform developed by the COS. And for sure, if you want, you can mail me to know more about pre-registration. So thank you very much for listening to me and I hope we have a great event.