Hello everybody, welcome back to my YouTube channel. So today I have another very important topic and I get this question often I hear it a lot of times. I'm asked a lot of times by many people on LinkedIn, Instagram and on YouTube comments of course. People do ask me that how did I manage to run my own firm? How did I start my own business? What exactly are the pros and cons of running your own firm in a foreign land? And I thought there is no one answer to this particular question and I do realize that I need to make a special vlog on this. So here I am today I'm going to discuss how I started my own thing and what do you have to keep in mind for the factors that you have to keep in mind and how it was an experience for me and how it is still is right. So basically today I'm going to let you know some tips and tricks that I have followed in my own practice and I'm not going to discuss a typical day in what my life is because that's the mainstream thing. I'm going to discuss some details that I have resonated from a lot of experience till now and let's begin by telling you one thing that I do realize I've worked in law firms in India. I have had good internship experiences. I've had good exposure to that kind of corporate field corporate law all kind of fields right plus litigation. So I do realize that when you have to run your own law firm you are basically not just going to be a good lawyer. Being good lawyer is one thing yes you have to ace your practice but you also have to be a very good entrepreneurs. So I often tell people that it's not very easy to run your own law firm no matter how easy it looks it's not that simple and specifically when you are in a foreign land when you have to make local contacts when you have to go through that networking zone and all of that. But now when I have crossed that bridge and I am learning day to day I do want to share my experience with all of you so that when any of you and all of you are here and most of you are here or whatsoever but as in when you are here you do get there some helpful things and it does help you through. So one of the most important thing in Canada what I have seen as an internationally trained lawyer and going through my practice and resources here since the time I've been into practice is that a lot of people who come out of this licensing process who as soon as they get their bar licenses they do tend to start their own practice. People do realize that one thing is that you the much paying yourself employed practices you won't probably get in an initial job and people have to run their families and you know they have a lot of responsibility on their head. So there are a few types of practices in Canada that anybody can tap on because it's easy and it's quick money and you can't just say it's easy it's easy to get to business in that and that one business is real estate which a lot of lawyers you would be seeing are doing because what happens in Canada is that any kind of property that you buy or sale has to go through a real estate agent and further through a lawyer so the closing of your deal would be through a lawyer so when lawyers do that they usually charge say about this now they start from anywhere around 800 to 1200 depending on what residential commercial property it is so 800 or 1200 dollars so basically the many lawyers I have heard that they do around 100-100 closings a month so that's like good money for them and it's more rewarding than a job so hats off to those people who start on their own practice just because you know I do understand that they do have to do a lot of responsibility on their head and have to take care of it but what I do realize specifically for mine my case was that I was not interested in this area of practice and I was keenly keenly working towards I initially started with a refugee matter and then that's how I was working in a law firm and that's how I realized that no I can actually pick up my own work have with the hands-on experience and start with this plus it really depends on your kind of family support that you get my partner was very supportive in fact he's one of the business partners in our firm and the other person is a Shahrukh as you all might know the Shahrukh is also a dear friend and a business partner so we've all been really like very good to when it was just for the moment so we started our own ace law practice and ace law is by the way doing a lot of business migration cases and hence that is my key area of interest I do like to read about investments act and I go through all of that in day-to-day routine so basically now I did not want to specialize we all do diversify but now by the time when your practice gets old you do try to tend to focus to a particular area initially and we still do we still do a lot of criminal matters we do civil matters and matters do come to you see there's no it's not that you are you know you you will not find work when you actually want to find work somehow the work will also find you so it it has never been a day where I have you know thought that why did I start my own thing I have always always embraced the feeling of starting my own firm now few of the factors that I want you guys to consider before once you get your licensing and have gone through that process is first how can you sustain how risk aversive are you now risk aversion say I do not mean ki apke pahs kite finances a of course finances is one criteria to it second is ki ap how much are you willing to give are you are you a person who's like you know a nine to five person then this is not for you are you a person who's like shy and timid and can't talk much to people do not like to you know go out of your zone out of your box get in touch with everybody and you know you are just very comfortable in your comfort box then this is not for you you have to again another thing is calculate that how how much confidence basically you have in yourself are you confident enough do you think yes out there in the world you have already had experience in a in a common-law country like India Pakistan you know wherever you can think as a common-law country wherever you are coming from do you think that you can basically you know make your local resources then if if your heart says yes then do follow this thing do follow your heart because you know sometimes you your brain will tell you something but what your heart says you need to follow that and believe you me that is the key to success it is just a minor difference on where you have to select your head and heart so a combination of both is ideally what I go for sometimes I think from my heart sometimes I think from my brain and usually both situations in collaboration work very well for me now the other point that I do want to discuss is that how is your business sense do you think you can handle because at some time you won't have employees with you when you start right because you have a limited budget you have limited kind of resources now you do want to emphasize on your business skills now some people are not meant for business they know that they can't do business because a law practice is not only doing some kind of paperwork that is going to come to you how is that paper going to come to you how is the client going to come to you how are you going to manage client expectations how are you going to keep accounting into record how are you going to maintain the society rules and ethics how are you going to be you know in in so much of so much of things that go together can you manage it all do you have the business sense and the most important thing is can you get business so it's very important to keep your clients happy to you know no no it's a service industry so basically it's it's so competitive that you actually have to have good services now if you are good in something then automatically from one client you'll get another client from another you will get a third one it's like word of mouth till date no matter how much you socialize how much you are on social media how much you market yourself it does not matter what matters in the end is how good you are with what you do along with a very good blend of being a very good business person how you don't have to sell yourself never sell yourself and never even short sell yourself do not I think in my career till now what I realized is that the services I offer as a lawyer can be you know can be maybe they are available in the market with a less maybe a less legal fee but I know when I do it I do it with all my heart and my clients file maybe if it's just a small investment for him but it's like everything for me that I do it's I do understand that this some people have their own savings into this and I do realize and emotionally you know that emotional quotient is there in me and I do realize that I have to take care of it so even if my face is there it's just because you if I value you you value my time so basically in importance of time and I do not like to short sell myself every ever then the third thing I like to talk about is your experience now I would not recommend anybody to start their own practice as they are just you know fresh law graduates cleared gone through the NCA process everything and they became lawyers in Canada and you have obviously have an immigration status so I would not recommend anybody without zero experience to start it is not something that I say key does the Salka experience to get started I don't know I'm not of that school of thought I also think that young people young entrepreneurs so much people across the world are doing so much young young kids are doing so much they have their own startups and everything and after all the law firm is also basically your own startup right so I do not think that you need a lot of experience for this but you do need a decent experience to know how will you actually work how is your temperament with your work so how can you you know deal with a particular situation you sometimes you might just lose and you will not just lose it's after all a loss for yourself as well but it's a major loss for your client so sometimes a lot of things are at stake and you have to be very careful with all that you have to be very diligent with all of that so basically I do not say a much diverse experience like five to ten years but I do say a decent two to three experience two to three years of experience and I when I say two to three experience I do count myself saying that your internships included in that why because your internships I know how much we work hard in our internships in India at least I have so basically I whenever somebody I'm in turn taking somebody on is and on as an intern in my firm I do realize that I will not free put them for free on work so they their people actually they get very much motivated and I think in lawyers and in this field we do need to motivate each other so even if you think you have a little bit of experience but you have the confidence you have the risk aversion you have the business in then do not even give it a second thought according to me the next thing I think I want to talk about with you guys is that how law is a tool to you with you which you can help people you know when I came to Canada I had no such thing in my mind that I will open my own thing but as a tool that can help people I started helping people with small immigration matters because it was for me it was just reading the law and helping them out with their matters I did tend to help a lot of people in there in that time when I was studying and going through my process and that is when I realized that okay no matter where in the world you are even in India even in Canada I do realize the fact that no matter where in the world you are one tool in your hand is your education and your degree and this particular thing called law in your hand so basically when you do understand something you can't even imagine the kind of small small reading and researching and help we can do for somebody that layperson is not aware of that layman is not aware of so basically this is like a very powerful tool that we have to use it and we know we should know how to use it right we should know where we can make money and where we should not make money where we should be more compassionate towards people and where we should know that okay this is now more of my time and this has to be valued this has to be compensated and basically that is where your own business sense come in do not be very greedy start just you know don't be out of the box and making just wanting to make huge money with few cases no it's over a period of time in your practice that you realize that as a self-employed person as somebody who has to in the end be directly accountable to the clients just be very reasonable and be very ethical with your clients even in Canada even in India wherever now I do have clients from overseas obviously because I do immigration but even when I have local clients I do tend to report them everything that's happening with their case or maybe I make it a habit to say once in two weeks but I do die too it's always on my mind and when you can multiple you know do multitasking do a lot of things then this this thing I'm sure running your own law firm you can manage if you have partners that's well and good because you tend to diversify more you tend to share responsibility more at the same time one of you has to be the managing partner why because you need to manage small small nitty-gritty's of the office which you don't realize right now but when you open your own firm then there is everything that you have to look into from the photograpy to basically even you know filing things so everything in an office in Ontario I have realized here in Canada that we can do everything in anything it's like we are very smart we just need to be very confident about our own selves have a little kind of risk aversion everybody will flourish even if the job market is down but still your own practice will it's your own right so you know how much you can do at the end of the day your capability pay I've made a lot of people who are born here but they don't have to practice so how is that possible it's just basically the difference of attitude how how much independent as you are as a person how much you know I am like not a 9 to 5 person if I want to work at night I can work at night if I want to work at day I will work at day so nobody that monotony I just can't tolerate so that's with me but that's not a very good thing though but that is there so I can't help it so make a pattern here at improvement case I don't use temperament case I'm sick me situation may just get a right and my God grace all is well that way but I just my quick suggestion is that start from whatever you have and do whatever you can right basically basically just try to spread that kind of positivity and I'm sure the universe will make things happen the way you want them to happen but just work towards it new universe is not just going to come to you and you know make it happen so that's me for today and if you want to go check out my website and everything in my about me then I do share the link of my website in the description box and if you want me to log about anything specifically related to other than starting your own practice in Canada and how the things related to that so you can do put in the comment section and thank you so much bye bye take care goodnight


So the question of democratic socialism inevitably came up at last night's debate and Look, I've long maintained that I don't actually think this is going to hurt Bernie Sanders as bad as mainstream pundits Believe it will or are saying that it will because I mean it doesn't matter who the nominee is It could be Joe Biden named the club a sharp he would a judge whoever wins Donald Trump is going to say that they're socialist. This is what Republicans do This is what they've always done and John McCain back in 2008. Can you guess what he called Obama a socialist?  It's not that scary. Is it but tonight? I'm willing to say that Bernie Sanders being a democratic socialist Is actually going to be an advantage for him possibly because the way that he handled that tonight was so masterful so brilliant that If he's successful here if he could be the nominee and beat Donald Trump like we could possibly see other Democrats Called themselves democratic socialists going forward because this is how you do it So he was asked about democratic socialism watch the way that he handled this question like a boss Senator Sanders our latest NBC News Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday two-thirds of all voters said they were Uncomfortable with a socialist candidate for president. What do you say to those voters sir? What was the result of that poll? Who was winning And questions questions to you well the question was that I was winning and I think by a fairly comfortable margin might mention that But here is the point. Let's talk about democratic socialism not communism. Mr. Bloomberg. That's a cheap shot Let's talk about democratic. Let's talk about what goes on in countries like Denmark repeat correctly pointed out They have a much higher quality of life in many respects than we do. What are we talking about? We are living in many ways in a socialist society right now Problem is as dr. Martin Luther King reminded us we have socialism for the very rich rugged individualism for the poor When Donald Trump gets eight hundred million dollars in tax breaks and subsidies to build link to build luxury Condominiums that's socialism for the rich Wait Wal-Mart we have to subsidize Wal-Mart's workers who are on Medicaid and food stamps Because the wealthiest family in America pays starvation wages that socialism for the rich business I believe in democratic socialism for working people not billionaires healthcare for all We have the best known socialist in the country happens to be a millionaire with three houses what I miss here Well, you'll miss that I work in Washington house wash the first problem live in Burlington house, too That's good and like thousands of other remote as I do have a suburb cap forgive me for that But where is your home? Which tax which tax haven New York New York City? Thank you very much And I pay all my taxes and I'm happy to do it because I get something for it and let me say I thought the Senator next to me was half right. I agree. We should raise taxes on the Disagree with the senator on the wealth tax, but I do agree with her that the rich aren't paying their fair share We should raise taxes on the rich. I did that as mayor in New York City I raised taxes and if you take a look at my plans the first thing I would do It's try to convince Congress because they've got to do it.  They didn't vote for that dummy try to keep up Like what are you trying to say here?    Who's winning in that poll? Tell me so you cite that poll But you don't cite the most important part we're in that same poll where people claim that they don't like socialism Bernie's winning It's Bernie so you can say that that generic Democratic socialist label may be a disadvantage to a generic Democrat on These ballots that polls use but when you put a face to the label and people know what he's talking about It actually makes a difference and the way that Bernie Sanders explained what he means by socialism like if you argue against this Then you're not gonna vote Democrat anyway, like this is just things that good people support He claimed we're living in a socialist society now The problem is we have socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the poor channeling Martin Luther King Jr I mean brilliant just brilliant to bring up Dr. MLK Jr When you're talking about socialism that is really important and it matters because people are familiar with MLK Even Republicans claim that you know, they love MLK Jr Even though we know that that wouldn't be the case if he were alive today But you know, they all know who MLK Jr is So if you quote him and you explain that that's the vision that you have for America It suddenly becomes a little bit less scary and Bernie Sanders also said I believe in democratic socialism for working people Not for billionaires healthcare for all educational opportunity for all creating a government that works for all of us Not just mr. Bloomberg exactly So when you educate people and you explain that we effectively have socialism for large multinational corporations with all of these corporate subsidies But you don't get any benefits. You don't get any handouts Handouts for lack of a better word. I mean, we have to change that we need Democratic socialism that doesn't just benefit wealthy but benefits everyone else like that's gonna land and let's say Hypothetically speaking it doesn't land Young people don't care about socialism people are Enthusiastic about supporting a socialist war millennials and zoomers.  So you can't possibly Say with a straight face that that's not gonna land in a general election and anyone who concern trolls about socialism and they will after this debate Like they're not serious about defeating Donald Trump like on that debate stage tonight What we saw was that there's one person who is strong enough to take on Donald Trump? Who's popular enough was an answer for everything who can actually beat Donald Trump and that's Bernie Sanders Look, Elizabeth Warren had a great performance and I think that she could hold her own on a debate stage But if you really want to win, I mean Bernie Sanders is demonstrated tonight Why he's the best person and why he's the frontrunner what he's saying is resonating with voters.  Bernie's a beast that was absolutely brilliant so kudos to Bernie Sanders that was Phenomenal and if you're worried about socialism Hurting Bernie Sanders and you know you are considering voting for Joe Biden only because you think he's more electable because he doesn't have that Socialist baggage if you will show them that debate clip You don't have to show them my video but just show them that debate clip of Bernie Sanders And if they have time if they're interested in learning more back in 2019 Bernie Sanders did I think it was like a 45 minute long speech where he talked about democratic socialism And it was probably one of the best speeches that I've ever heard if not one of the best and we have to educate people and Let them know that if we truly want to win We need someone who represents the people and democratic socialists are not Bernie Sanders has all the right policies And if you educate them about those policies and what he means when he says he's a democratic socialist It's no longer scary, you know It's no longer something that seems foreign or communist. They just get it because what he's saying makes sense It's gonna land it's gonna resonate with people and it already is


My name is Anthony Chung. I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel to get daily content from myself and the rest of the team. And if there's any questions about today's briefing, feel free to leave a comment below. Okay, good morning folks. It is Thursday the 12th of November. I hope you are doing well. Going to have a quick look around the markets and rather than really focus so much on the charts in this briefing, I really want to get you up to speed on the COVID situation, particularly in the US, and also a few things to think about in order to kind of anticipate what might happen in the coming weeks, and also to put a little bit of context as to the moves we've seen this week, of course, kicking off with that virus vaccine information coming out of Pfizer, of course. So just having a look at the charts this morning, let's start in chronological order on Wall Street last night. This is what the heat map looked like. And a bounce back for the tech stocks. And so the NASDAQ 100 jumped the most. It was up about 2.31%. The S&P comparatively was up just around three quarters of 1%. The Dow was actually flat to minor negative. Some of the stay at home shares, which had been pretty battered earlier this week on the back of the Pfizer news, put in a pretty decent recovery. So lots of Amazon Apple and the mega cap names up around 3% to 3.4%. In terms of Asian equity markets, traded mostly lower, sentiment gradually deteriorating from the somewhat mixed performance we had on the closing Wall Street, as I just mentioned. But I'm going to talk about this a little bit more. There's been a lot of noises about potentially a rotation into cyclicals, as we mentioned before, out of some of these fairly stretched moves we've seen in some of the tech space. But I'm going to give you reasons to think that now's not the time for that. Because I think in summary things are going to get worse before they get better. And I'll explain why in a moment. But having a look then at the charts and how things are shaping up this morning, equity index futures trading negative. You can see here that Dow, just finding some technical resistance at around its S1, which is quite a nice area now of resistance for the price activity before the US comes in that could well cap the upside here, which is around that 29175 area, which was around the support point that we saw before the bounce that came into the close on Wall Street. Elsewhere, the NASDAQ down around 55, the S&P kind of locked within a bit of a trading range from the session from yesterday morning, defined by a high of around 74.25 to a low of 40.25. So it was around the bottom end of that range for the moment. Elsewhere, gold is up $4, but relatively flat. The dollar is largely unchanged, albeit has been moving higher in the Asia-Pacific session, which has weighed on the major pairs to a certain degree. Under performance though, being observed in sterling currency, as you can see here, finding a nice area of again resistance from the support levels from yesterday afternoon. It's come back up to retest before pushing back down now to the S1, which brings us into play around 131.70, just above is the S1, and then the low that we had before the rally we saw on would have been Tuesday morning. We have had some UK data already out this morning, and for Q3 preliminary GDP, it came in quarter and quarter at 15.5%, at this soft and expected 15.8%. Other numbers that came in, things like manufacturing output was 0.2% against an expected 1%. So although this data I think is largely insignificant because the market is now forward looking given the new COVID situation developing right now and the current then restrictions in place, which would impede Q4 growth, the fact that Q3 was a little bit softer already and we're expecting further deterioration going forward until the end of the year in the Q4 GDP readings, perhaps in a little bit of a negative headwind just to weigh on sterling. Obviously some Brexit deadline is going to be missed, as we heard yesterday, and also the dollar has seen a degree of strength in the overnight Asia Pacific session. So interesting to keep an eye on that pair this morning. Otherwise, oil, most notably for oil, is just held on to the gains from yesterday. We're right at that coloured kind of rectangle, which was the restricting the price over a two month period really through September and October. We broke through that yesterday just giving some of the renewed kind of pick up in demand expectations, albeit I'm probably going to dampen those a little bit by the time I finish this briefing. Also we had to draw down in the APIs remember because of the federal holiday we had in the States yesterday for Veterans Day it means that then that date of the DOE is going to come out this afternoon and our expectation there is for a draw down following the American Petroleum Institute figures we had two days ago. All right, so going to delve straight in at the deep end. I'm going to start with this chart and I'm going to give you my latest take on what I think about COVID and how I think it's going to impact markets and be perceived by market participants in the coming weeks. And starting off with this graphic, this is new reported cases by day in the United States of America. Current US daily record is now over 145,000 and hospitalisations as we can see here have jumped more than 10% between November 6th to yesterday in six states and led by a 20.4% jump in New Jersey that we've seen. Overall what has this led to then with this renewed kind of surge in cases in the US? New York Governor Como came out last night and said the private indoor and outdoor gatherings statewide will be limited to 10 people and that gyms, bars and restaurants must close daily at 10 p.m. These new enforced restrictions will come into effect on Friday. Now a few things here to be aware of then. Infectious disease experts have warned yesterday that the surge in coronavirus cases in many parts of the US is likely to get materially worse in the coming weeks. Now I saw a fantastic thread by a fairly well followed scientist which I'm going to touch upon in a moment. You can see the entire thread on my Twitter account. In fact I'll show you now. So if you just go on my Twitter account I reshared it. The chap's called Trevor Bedford. He works for Fred Hutch which essentially is an organisation that looks at studying various different viruses, everything from cancer to HIV and ways and means to try and counteract that in terms of medical science. But he had a really good string of tweets that I think needs to be understood. Basically the point that he was trying to make was that deaths, so this is the case numbers surging of course from what we've seen in America. But the death numbers are relatively low, comparative to wave 1 of course that we saw back in. The peak really came around the 17th, 16th of April when numbers were just over 2200. We currently are around numbers of around 1400 as of yesterday in the US. So around half let's say. But important things to recognise here is that deaths are a lagging indicator. And basically this chap's run the maths and you can approximate that there is a timeline of around a three week lag reported. So deaths lag reported cases. There is a lag between when a case is diagnosed and when the individual may succumb to their disease and there is a further lag between the date of death and the date of which then the death is reported. Hence then consequently there's a three month lag. Now doing the relevant adjustments to calculate them predicted rates it is anticipated that with around let's say 118,000 reported cases we've even gone above that now by a good 25,000. But at that figure when these numbers were run in the US with a seven day smoothing out of the averages it would translate to approximately 2150 deaths being reported in 22 days time. So basically the beginning of September, a beginning of December, excuse me. So what we're saying is that this graphic here now would approximate that this acceleration, which you can quite clearly see that the rolling average here is getting more steeper in terms of its trajectory that that is going to end up looking in if anything going in excess of the peak of what we saw in April. We're just right at the bottom of it at the moment and that's what because of the three week lag with this this graphic here. Now a couple of things to be aware of as well is that even if a vaccine is approved soon and obviously this has been the main focal point of markets this week everyone's kind of latched on. And I think a strong degree of that is behavioural of people's want of course to address humanitarian crisis that we're currently facing on the global level. But even if a vaccine is approved soon people must continue to rely on face masks, social distancing for a number of months as a minimum most likely because initial vaccine suppliers will be limited of course we know this and will be reserved for healthcare workers and other frontline workers and demographics such as the elder nursing home carers things like this. That means then that the more kind of productive that's called the members of a society that create their economic growth they're going to be pretty much last in the queue because predominantly a lot of these are going to be of the age that would not be on the priority order meaning then that more widespread inoculation is going to take time. So not only are there these barriers we've discussed before about logistical you know the two-shot process like what we had with Pfizer it's got to come a month later once it's got to be transported in ultra cold temperatures which brings about infrastructure issues with costs so on and so forth. The other point then being is that by the time we see full inoculation it's going to be a long period ahead it isn't as I would say what politicians are suggesting like in the UK right now that yep Christmas is sorted don't worry guys the Pfizer have got the vaccine we'll get it out there in December far from the case that that will address the current situation in my humble opinion. This leads me then to think generally that the market has inappropriately reacted so far this week to the latest fires of vaccine news particularly the initial knee-jerk moves that we're seeing and I think that they're going to revert back to having a more pessimistic view about this current situation. Now a couple of things here the US is going to be behind the curve it already is I mean one of the things that you're seeing here at the moment is that quite the opposite is happening in mainland Europe in fact numbers in France Germany and one of the harvests here areas Belgium their numbers of cases have started to plateau irrespective of the fact that things are spiking obviously deaths are rising as are hospitalisations because remember it's a forward indicator the fact that cases are plateauing so we can't anticipate those deaths to start also doing the same for a number of weeks. The point is though we're hitting a plateau on this exact graphic we're here we're looking in the US and so that's come because of proactive and pre-emptive measures that were taken and fairly stringently so in the cases of France for example so even though the cases have been bad they've been dealing with it in a fairly prompt fashion quite the opposite is happening in America of course because you've almost had a political distraction which is a US election of which the current administration may I remind you Trump has made zero mention of this because he's still trying to legally challenge an election in which he's quite clearly lost so for me again a lack of leadership and interest in an outgoing Trump administration with very little political gain to be confronting this issue which is if anything only going to stain his reputation as president now he knows he's going to be leaving means then that there's going to be a lukewarm response to really tackling this as it should be done scientifically because we know that well if there were no politics in human society we probably would be taking a radically different approach to this but that's not the case and obviously politics is right right in there in terms of how these countries are responding with this and I think in the US it's going to be they're going to be distinctly behind the curve and my worry is is that these numbers here we're looking at already currently going to mean that the death rate is going to if anything exceed phase one but I think that that number could have the potential to go way higher than phase one now just looking at the country on a on a nationwide map you can see the spread is already happening before it was really more centered in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio these types of areas in the Midwest but we are we are gradually moving out again you can see both east and west and another concern I have here is Thanksgiving is coming November 26th so we've only got a couple of weeks and obviously this is one of the major holidays in America where people typically travel they move around they mix with family members and friends so the potential for further transmission of this virus without any appropriate more stringent measures being imparted I think it's going to be difficult so a lack of national leadership I think puts a lot of pressure on on state governors to really take action and so again you're probably excited to come to the realization that I'm I'm quite bearish on on what this means from a from a markets point of view then I think it's way too early to talk about this whole rotation out of tech and the kind of end of what has been a pretty phenomenal run for a lot of these pandemic related individual equity stories because what I'm saying is I think things are going to get worse particularly in America and so I think that that's still got some legs to run in the likes particularly in companies like Amazon which are obviously thrived in this type of environment so you know COVID cases get worse restrictions get tightened inevitably lockdowns take place um and I would not be surprised in America if this gets rolled out all the way through into next year and then Biden comes in and obviously he's talked about his willingness to do further lockdowns so I think you're good for the moment in terms of some of these tech names and I think it's a it's a little bit preemptive to start talking about then a full-born kind of rotation out of that I don't think that's going to be a case at least for another three to six months the form of being the earliest possible I would say in my opinion so yep sorry to be the the bearer of bad news but I kind of feel compelled here to really dish out a dose of reality when everyone's I feel has got a little bit ahead of themselves on the vaccine front this week now it's not all doom in gloom though Anthony Fauci the the kind of leading infectious disease expert in the US he was speaking in the conference yesterday and he said he was optimistic about a forthcoming update on the virus from biotech firm Moderna if you remember these are one of the key companies that's been around from the beginning from Gilead Astro with Oxford University Moderna Pfizer and BioNTech these are all the big runners if you'd like for the vaccine in clinical phase three trials now he said he would be surprised if we didn't see a similar degree of basically efficiency of the vaccine with positive results comparative to that of Pfizer and the reason why people are talking about this is that Moderna are due for an update in the coming days so it is something to look out for but as much as that will be a good thing you know on the surface more companies getting to the point of where the science is proving more effective is definitely a good thing however I do think that in terms of market's response it is going to be diminishing as in I think the first cat out the bag was slightly caught markets off guard when Pfizer just broke the news I think as more companies come out and say similar I think it's going to have a lesser degree of impact in the day training environment because of the factors I was talking about before and we have done throughout the week about the whole timeline to distribution inoculation as well as things in the context of getting getting worse at this point in time the silver lining of course and this is what's helped actually companies like Pfizer and Moderna is that with all these case numbers accelerating it means that these scientists can can gather more data in quicker and so therefore hopefully they can achieve their end result in a more timely fashion we hope touch would so yeah um that's it really and I think really more I wanted to say on that but that really was I feel quite strongly on this at the moment um we shall see but I'm just getting you prepared 12th of November you heard it here um this is going to get quite bad in the states coming forward and and I'm afraid Christmas could well be cancelled at this rate all right let's have a look elsewhere um OPEC yeah it's been a couple of reports out of OPEC overnight and obviously a lot of people talking about this price has recovered quite sharply throughout the course of of this week I mean we were just two weeks ago trading near $30 a baron and we are now trading upper 41 and a half so sharp recovery um and this has put a lot of emphasis then on do now OPEC plus actually need to do anything uh they've already really committed themselves to roll over but for how long is the kind of question and this is the latest talks between OPEC and its allies are zeroing in on a delayed next year's planned oil output increase of three to six months according to several delegates in the Bloomberg article from last night the ministers are holding their online meeting at the end of the month November 30th to December 1st so I don't think it would be too much to add there as I said in the oil market short term um definitely this covid situation would not fare well for oil demand expectations which have been reignited earlier in this week if things play out as I've mentioned on the covid side in America it could well be then the oil price does start to give back and drift down again over the foreseeable weeks to two month period um so yeah that that's it on the the OPEC side the other thing was Brexit we obviously had the headlines yesterday um we saw reports um the island cds the EU UK trade talks going past the mid November deadline of course that was for this Sunday uh this fits exactly with our baseline expectations we've been talking about on the desk for for a while we never thought that we're going to strike a deal this week not with the more kind of tangible uh and legal real hard deadlines coming until we get well into December so we're a little bit of volatility yesterday uh on that coin but I just want people to be super careful we're not getting overly committed to that type of news flow in the context I really didn't think it was that surprising so after it kind of blipped high it blipped down and it kind of came back up and now we've started drifting down but I think that's largely for for other reasons uh as well so yeah couple things to to be aware of we could see further Brexit headlines before the end of the week I'm sure that we will just given that kind of tentative deadline that was in place at the end of the week I'm sure uh the risk for me is more about um going into the end of the week there was supposed to be a deadline strategically if I was Dominic Cummings I'd be very much putting the pressure on Boris to be quite stern threatened to walk away that whole kind of pantomine saga to kick off once again just to keep the pressure on at this point in time this irrespective of the fact that obviously in the UK the COVID situation is particularly challenging at this present point in time okay quick look at the calendar for today what have we got we've already had the UK data as I mentioned we are going to get the IEA oil market report later following the OPEC one we had yesterday um Eurozone industrial production at 10 US CPI and weekly jobless claims coming at 130 I don't really see either of them being too important quite honestly um particularly on the inflationary side there's no real pressures at present given the economic environment and obviously with the adoption of AIT we know we're near becoming a real focal point for Fed policy at this point we're definitely downside risks emerging ever more so and then we've got the DOEs as per normal holiday impacted data coming out a day later it's going to be at the slightly later time of four o'clock London not 330 speakers though there's a few you do need to be aware of Bank of England's Bailey the governor does speak and he's already started speaking in fact he's just said that sterling data was in line with the bank's expectations recovery has been strong but we still have a huge gap in the process being very uneven I don't think that's really too surprising to be honest nothing really interesting out of that but he is speaking at the moment you've got ECBs to Gwendoffs, Fed's Evans, Fed's Williams and Bank of Canada's Wilkins all speaking today and it's the second day of two of the ECB forum central in Portugal and Panetta, Mersh, Schnabel and Lagarde probably the main one here to be aware of and I'll be sharing the live links at the time is at 445 Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Fedshire Powell they're speaking on central banking collectively on a panel discussion from 445 so that's definitely one late in the day to to be aware of that could be interesting I'm not expecting as a base expectation anything really to be said I think they've already shown their hand in recent commentary and bank decisions that have only been a short time period ago but of course these are the main players in the mix and so any further insight as to what's becoming perhaps even more downbeat would be quite interesting all right that is it we're going to leave the briefing at that I have noticed that the dollar is taking a bit of a turn as I'm coming to the end of the briefing so it's given up any of those overnight initial European entrance gains and just backing off in a dixie a touch which is just providing a bit of a bid tone here into some of the other currencies