The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Oh toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good. Let's we're gonna take a look at the E-mini S&P here over the last 10 trading Whoops, it's more than that the last three weeks of trading. I want to take this out of there But you can see the big a Bcd pattern that I've drawn in here. It measured to 48 94 I said put the order in to sell at 48 92. I wanted to make sure I would be filled and of course It went four pins four points higher and I suggested to put a 10-point stop on it is what I suggested So that's how I was doing this now All this is is a combination of this large a bcd pattern now not not knowing anything else Just look at some simple timing stuff folks if you go over here and see the low We made back here on January 5th. Okay, you go over to the high that you made right there Okay, that was 86 hours of trading Okay so all I want to do now is I would go over to look and Take this low over to this level and see where you're gonna be coming in and it says you're gonna be making a high Somewhere around tomorrow is what it's saying now remember time is the most elusive so we trade off a price And so that's what we did with that trade now if you think that I wasn't concerned about this When this was all happening is because what was happening to the Dow Jones? This is the one remember this is only 16 stocks and of course softy was in there Microsoft going absolute crazy to the upside But here's the 15 minute chart on the ym going back to the 18th of January and then you made a high on the 19th, okay That was Friday and you come down in here into Sunday and that makes seeing an abcd pattern right here So there's your a leg right here. There's your b leg right here, and there's your cd leg right here, and that comes in at 38,219 and the high has been 38,280 so it went 60 points higher than what we were Suspecting it to be but the thing that's most troubling from a technical standpoint from looking at the Dow Jones Is as you look at this on the long-term? Daily and those weekly the long-term weekly You're going to see that the 1.618 number that it hit one two three four five six times Was it 3805 one and we're already a hundred and sixty five points higher than that and the abcd on that big move Measure to that number 3805 one so this is either an emotional blow-off type day or We're going to go a whole Lot higher now in order to look at the stock market you have to look at the Dow Jones You've got to look at the Russell you got to look at the Nasdaq and the s&p 500 So the next one we're going to take a look at here is the s&p. We're going to use the cash s&p Because that way we don't have to make any changes Like futures rolling over anything like that. We'll get up here. This is the cash market This is the weekly chart. Let me get it up here to see where we are and We'll move this over just a tiny little bit and you'll notice here that the hold on one second So I can see where the number is go to the far left over here You can see this level here was 382. This was the high in January of last year now That was a 382 now. We're trading today. We're already at 383. Did we get to we got as high as 385? So we took out that high Okay, but this is where we are. We've got this big ABCD now All I'm going to do now is to move this over because this is what could possibly be happening here And that's why I want to see it. You can see the ABCD patterns as we go up a Bcda Bcd. So we're going to draw the last one in there's your low right here There's your high right there. So I'm going to mark that right here and see where you should come into and you mark It off and get it's hit it to it be exact if I can It says it should come in at 387 and we can excuse me for 87 it came in at 45 And we still could go a little bit higher. So that's a possibility here now Let's do the next one, which is the NASDAQ and we'll go up here and take a look at the NASDAQ and Just give me one second here and we'll get it up so we can look at it and see and believe me folks This is about 35 or 40 stocks that is doing all of this because it's it's the ones that are the real expensive ones because they're They're weighted. Okay here. We're coming into the NASDAQ. We're going to do the weekly on the NASDAQ And we'll get it up here And here's the weekly on the NASDAQ See we've just made new highs here and look where we are right now I want to show you this last little swing right here because this is the one that we talked about in the newsletter We had this a bcd pattern coming in up here at around 17,600 okay, the high was 17,585 we're a hundred handles lower than that right now We're gonna get up and take a look at the hour Let me be able to see there's been a tiny bit of a sell-off and so this is a tiny bit one So you can see here. This was the weekly number right up here now We backed off just a little bit still quite strong on the day, but really doing very very little You know so far today the fact that it's down a little bit as a matter of fact It's a bigger correction today than where we had right back here You see this correction that we had that you move it over And look what's happened. You see we're in a little bit below that level already We're made a larger correction way back here than we did here That's why we think this could be a very very important to tradable top is what we're looking for So I hope that makes sense as we look at these things unfold here So we've covered that and the last one we want to cover here Let me turn these off because uh, we don't need them anymore We've already covered them once if you have any questions. It's eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight And this is Billy Ray Valentine Capricorn. Let's get up the Russell and then we'll be in good shape here All right, Russell Russell is right underneath this one. There it is right here So we're gonna get the weekly Russell up and you can see the Russell is up a little bit today It'd been down Even though we've been going straight up in the dial You see we had a little bit of a sell-off here now look what's happened so far today This is the weekly chart. So we're gonna go to the daily and see if that was a fact a 3-8-2 And I've already drawn it in and you can see we did go above it We went up to almost the exact 50% that instead of stopping here We got up to the 50% levels down from the high But this has still been the weak sister because when you look at this on the weekly, you know This thing has been way down. We've never even made a 61% retracement on this that Tells us that the market is a whole lot weaker Then you might think it might be but there's one other one that we need to pay close attention to folks because it's Knocking on the door of a very very very big pattern and that's our good friend None other than the Lone Ranger himself And we'll get this up and take a look at it Clayton Clayton Moore was the real original original TV loan ranger anyway, here's where we are.  There's your CD CD leg forming. So we're just going to mark it off There's your a leg right here. There's your CD leg right here And as you can see here, we're getting really close folks 21 97 and we look at this on the long term daily Believe it's a weekly week. There's the weekly right here. We are going to be looking at this This is if it has a chance to do this Let me just draw it in on ABCD on the weekly and you'll be able to see this a whole lot easier because we are really close to it Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing at number two for the year an Amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com a tribe mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to Be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out Market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to market insights today Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee For all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights first hand TFNN educating investors TFNN has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Zen hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just $1 for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tiger's Den You can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other Tigers and Tigris's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of TFNN.com Toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Okay, folks, so we're taking a look at silver here. This is the March silver weekly chart And as you can see here, we had the ABCD pattern here We rally from 21 all the way up to 26 and then back it did make an ABCD pattern on the way up You'll be able to see this when we draw it in now I want you to notice that you see the CD leg was expanded so much Your first clue that it was not going to stop at D was right there when you come out of point C like a rocket ship That tells you you're going to expand that at least by 1.618 So if you mark that and just went up to change the CD leg See you got your BC leg ABCD or equal AB BC when you get to the CD leg You just make that at 1.618. Okay, and then you put it up And you'll be able to see that that it didn't it went even higher. I guess it went to 127 Let's see. Let's put the 127 number in and see I'm almost a hundred percent sure it's one four one four But let's just put it in at we know it's not one six one eight So it's going to be 141 square root of two So we come up here and put in one four four and that would tell you you're going to be exactly at the number there 26 309. Okay. Now. Where do we go from here? We draw from 26 $3 a barrel three dollars an ounce to 26 at 23 and up to the 618 retracement And here's where we're coming now. This is a weekly folks go. This is a big one.  I'm in big trouble. Oh I'm not even gonna be able to finish the show Shucks Sorry, Al. Oh man. I really missed. I don't have my power cord with me. Oh Do you have a power cord it might work? Probably wouldn't work with it. No because it's a Dell. Yeah. Oh, I'm in really true. I'm in big trouble, buddy No, that's not it Wow, my thing doesn't say battery at all. Let me look over here. Look at this. We got That didn't even show the battery on this one here, but it says here. Well, yeah Well, I'm not gonna worry about I'm gonna keep doing anyway Here's where you want to be looking to buy the the silver right down here on 21 31 We want to double-check the 78% level Computer stuff we hit the 78% level spot on today at 2204 right now. We're trading at 22 28 strong Probability this could be a good bottom in the gold market now if gold is going to a silver market If silver is going to go up, we ought to look to see if there's anything similar Happening in the gold. So let's come over here and we will come down and get to the gold market Which is right here and you'll see where we were this morning Now remember this is the same type of pattern that we're looking at no more than a b equal cd That's all we're watching and you can see as we blow this up This is just a 13 minute chart But it covers the time from friday all the way through sunday and today and you can see we made an a B cd pattern right there on the bottom. There's your drive one drive two drive three coming in at 2018 The low on the gold was 2017 the rally backup Right to the 61 382 retracement and now it's just backing and filling. So this is one that we want to Really, you know, keep a really really close eye on as we Start to see these things unfold here today And i'm really i'm going to be in big trouble here because norm is going to come on and i'm probably going to be out of out of uh No, i can't and that won't work i'll i'll get a uh We'll do we'll do what we can anyway nothing will happen tomorrow if if anything doesn't work But it looks like i've got about 10 seconds worth of uh, and they told me that i had at least three hours At the old computer store. So i couldn't believe those guys anymore Anyway, that's what we're watching one other that i wanted to bring up to you and that is the uh crude oil Now here is the same situation that we had in crude oil You see the a bcd pattern that we have going on right now It measures to 75 11 the high has been 75 46 Now the reason why you think this is going to go higher is to look how it exploded out of here It rallied a dollar a barrel before it even made any type of correction That tells you that the bc leg is going to be at least 1.27 the cd leg Larry try it again the cd leg so you're going to go up here Mark this off take your seat Shucks just a second here I'm a little flustered now that i think i'm losing so much data here There's your cd. We're going to make that at 127 127 And you'll bring up here and that's going to tell you that you're going to go up here quite a bit higher To 75 80 and look where that is that's going to be the 1.618 expansion of that move And there's something wrong here. But oh, here's the problem.  I didn't draw that in. Let me get that correct Because that'll take you right up to the promised land there at the 1.618 level at 75 80 75 91 then you'd be right there now We need to valid validate that on the daily now because this is a big move We've rallied in four days folks. We've rallied four dollars a barrel Problem will do to what's going on and there's there's a number we want to be looking for we're waiting for it That comes in at 76 20 so between 75 80 and 76 20 and then we've got our old high back here At 76 18 so if it starts getting above that, uh, oh, I don't think it will but if it does and if it does We're going to be paying higher prices for oil looking at the way that it's looking Right now. So that's another one. We've got a lot of things going on Not only that we've you know, we've even got soybeans on the watch list, but they're Not they're slightly higher today, but still not quite ready to uh Quite ready to turn down. So that's what we're watching here In the crude oil today and we'll see what happens now. What's really beautiful about the crude oil If you look at this on a four-hour chart I want to get this up here Let's do an hourly chart because that's what I was looking at last night. I could only get data I could only get data for a very short period of time and the reason for that Let me get this up here so we can see it here Uh, the easiest way would be the 30 minute chart. I believe there it is right here and this will show it to us Here's the area that I was really interested in last night Because this was a nice member of these are pretty big swings here in crude oil But you can see the the sequence of events here. You've got a Beautiful three drive to a bottom pattern right there. I'm going to draw that in there's drive one. Okay There's drive two. There's drive three coming in right here now If I can validate this with a fib number from over here and you can see one very easily which is right there So you just take your Marker see what the retracement was And there it was exactly At 50% right on the money and look where we're going, you know, we're going higher folks Look at this same thing. See how it comes out at this point whenever you see this Something like this or something like this or something like this that tells you just like we had in october the 28th and 29th and 30th in stocks Crude oil is going higher as they say in the trade. So let's take a break<PHONE_NUMBER> and stay tuned for the wizard mr. Norm winsky Old report As a precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market The us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange The gold report Tom o'brien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xAU hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations The gold report New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee. So you have nothing to risk Subscribe to tom o'brien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com Currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe Which is why it's a great time to try out teddy keg stats tiger forex report Teddy keg stat breaks down the forex markets every monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures Forex stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs Including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar Dollar swiss dollar yen as well as many more And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year t bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously When you sign up for the tiger forex report you also gain instant access to teddy's 60 minute webinar archive He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals. What is behind the tiger forex report for all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger forex report subscription today. Visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos And data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv. That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv Hi folks larry pesavento here with tfnn. I believe we have norm winsky in the house norm. Are you there my friend? Hello larry. Can you hear me? Okay? You're coming in good norm If you miss me just keep on talking because my computer is almost out of power They guaranteed that i'd had three hours today. It's only been running for an hour here And so i'm out of town So uh, if you miss me make finish up this show and we'll have you on again soon But please continue right now. All right. Thank you very much. Hopefully you'll you'll the stick with us, you know you bet All right when I was last on your show on january the 8th. I gave three forecasting dates Uh, first one was the 8c is after the close. That's overnight We had a new moon in the sign of capricorn anytime we have a new moon We look at financials grains precious metals oil and because it was a capricorn We added coffee Then the next night the night of the 11th We had a mercury cycle for anytime we have mercury We look at the grains corn and soybeans wheat and then the night of the 12th We had a point to the us natal chart That means we look at us things like us stocks t bonds and us dollar. Let's look at the charts So corn had a little bit of an upward bias here into our moon Point and you just see there it made a nice top Here's Beans actually made a little kind of a low there had a chance to make a small amount of money not not terrific Uh, the wheat it was going on these yellow boxes or it was going sideways. So we took a pass And then here we had a little dip here for wheat had a chance All that and that oh the wheat Uh, that was a miss because you can see you could have lost money there The measurement is the were you able to have an opportunity to make some money Within one day of our date Moving ahead here. Here's coffee how to dip into our our lunar point there And if you bought there you had a chance to make some ice money It doesn't look that bit like that big of a deal Due to the scaling, but it's actually about six handles, which is about $2,000 So there we go. And here's crudel and had a dip into the moon again And that has a nice pop up there with about four handles, which was $4,000 Silver was going sideways over the past year. Silver has been hitting about 90 percent I can show you that if you would contact me on all these lunar dates About nine out of ten times. It was uh a winner Gold had a dip into the moon and you can see it had a nice rally there. I think it was about 40 50 that's 40 40 $5,000 right there And here's your s&p rallied into the moon for top had a big down day came back up And made another top there. You had a double top there on our mercury point I didn't work so well on the us point. So we hit two out of three there Bonds were going sideways into the moon, but then they rallied up into our us point And you can see that that was a really nice top there that was about About three handles there two and a half three handles there every handle of the thousand dollars Here's the dollar dipped into the moon and you had a nice very nice low there look at that big rally We were a little early here. So that was a miss on the us point Here's your british pound rallying into the moon and you can see that turned out to be a very nice top there on the british pound Here's your euro you rallied into the moon and made a very nice top there And here's the japanese yen pulled down made a little bit of a short terminal there for the end So we had 12 winners three messes out of 15 80% winners. That's pretty good Uh now what's coming up in the future here? Uh, just curious are larry you still there or not? I think we lost larry. Okay Anyway, so uh the night of the here's what's coming up today is uh, January 22nd over this past weekend today is a monday. We just had a pretty big event here We had geocentric that's from the point of the earth The point of view of the earth we have pluto entering the sign aquarius pluto is a 248 year cycle So it only changes signs 112 of that roughly every about every 20 years And so it did Because of the geocentric motion from the point of view of the earth how the planets look like they move They kind of the outer planets the slow moving ones tend to look like they move two steps forward one step back So we did have pluto initially go into aquarius last year for a couple months and then it backed up again That's your retrograde into capricorn and so we had but that's back again and what confirms us now Is that doesn't or that phenomenon doesn't happen when you look at it from the point of view of the sun That's heliocentric and both of these points are both both pluto Geo and helio are entering into aquarius now So we want to watch uh cattle cocoa copper because that's aquarius cotton hogs and t-bonds Uh, like if you call me i'll explain why these other markets were also relevant And the same thing here in a couple of days the 22nd. That's this afternoon We're going to again have heliocentric pluto entering aquarius Uh, please note pluto is entering aquarius. Do you want to heal it for the first time in about 248 years? This should have major short term and very long term effects on designated markets. There you go So then also tonight, this is the 22nd now Uh, we'll have a mercury cycle and that's for corn and soybeans. We please note that the stocks potential respond to all events Okay, so even if I mentioned even if I don't mention stocks it probably it's implied, okay And then the night of the 23rd we have pluto to the u.s chart So u.s stocks t-bonds u.s dollar and then the afternoon of the 25th We have a full moon in leo who's larry was talking about a possible Glow developing in the gold and leo is the gold sign And this only occurs about once per year when we have the full moon in leo And so you notice that we have gold specified there But we have major changes from financial grains precious metals oil and emphasis on corn and gold Then the night of the 26th we have jupyler Parallel latitude the u.s part of fortune major change in trans stocks t-bonds us dollar that's you a Jupyler to the s chart and then the night of the 26th we have iranus turning direct That's the opposite of retrograde and we want to be watching cattle copper and cotton Here are the charts. I did not cover in the review. These are as of last night So you want to update these charts? Look at these markets before you make any decision We have cattle here was going up up up into our window And we have cotton doing the same You want to ideally we would like to see cotton today go up here and test this higher Maybe even go a little higher same thing on the cattle and then we have Coco going up up up into our window here for the pluto into a courier And the all these markets potentially That are going up up up are making highs And then the hogs are just kind of going sideways. So looks like highly likely that this will be a pass Uh copper is kind of in the middle there It depends upon what it did the day and when I last looked a little while ago It was down a little bit. That's kind of a uh, maybe a bit of a nothing, you know All right, so now another thing that I do I only show this usually about once a year I do I show that I do fractals fractals are when you Do I'll get into this if you contact me. I'll give you a mini class And it's a same repeating pattern at different levels of order And there's a way to do this on a simple method if you google fractals, it's a it's a it's a branch of chaos You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing tom obryan's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading tom obryan Renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted Stay ahead of the game with tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox Whether you're a season trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence Ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to tfnn.com and subscribe to market insights today Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results Market insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers So you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game Head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of tom obryan's award-winning newsletter Market insights firsthand tfnn educating investors Biotech is booming But for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd Directions daily smp biotech three times bull and bear etfs Visit direction investments.com slash biotech today An investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Concluding the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz We're back Larry's uh as a technical difficulty. So this is norm whiskey Pick it up for Larry here. So I was doing my presentation for the commercial I'm going to continue now talking about fractals fractals are taken from a theoretical physics branch called chaos theory and fractals are a branch of that and what it is is repeating Uh pattern at different levels of order. So for example, a simple pattern a simple example Is one you find in nature A pine tree look at the pine tree the branches look like mini pine trees and the little twigs look like miniature branches So the pattern repeats at different levels of order You can do this in the market. There's something called the january brown mother as january goes So it goes here.  I don't do calculus because um math the Handicapped or whatever and so I figured out a way to do this So a 10 year old can do this. I can teach a 10 year old to do this in about 10 minutes So if you want to contact me, we'll talk about how you might be able to do that too Anyway, I do these for about 28 markets every year You need january's price data to do this. So I always publish in february this here's an example here with the results on top Overlate as we go through the year. I really results at the end of the year I have a the full results for all the 28 markets And you see the blue bars where the forecast that was published in february of last year You see that and then the black part of the actual s&p. I'm sorry not s&p In this case, whatever market it is. This is natural gas daily bars Overlate on top of the blue bar so you can see how that came out. I think that worked out pretty well So that's one example of the 28 markets moving ahead now. Let's see. Here's who here's Here's who I am. I've been doing this a long time. I started trading in college in the early 70s I'm 72 now And I have got over 50 years experience and I made enough money Well in college that I ended up buying a membership on the then fledgling chicago board options exchange in 1975 I was there for 12 years and I also Traced since they were in that we were in the board of trade building. I also Traded on the board of trade for a little while too Okay, so moving ahead now Where here's how to get old of me I've been happy to help you answer your questions I can I studied a lot of these different methodologies gan Astrophysics Strology, I have a background in music and so forth So you might want to get a hold of me. Please get a hold of me right away Get into the month here while I get really busy Putting together the next month Letters, and so here's how you're gonna hold on me. I'm in beautiful Naples, Florida now At two three nine five nine four three nine three nine. That's two three nine Five nine four three nine three nine or you can call me on skype at n W in sk I at yahoo.com looking forward to helping some of you folks there And everybody have a great day and a great week ahead And hopefully I'll be back soon to show you how all these forecasts came out And hopefully I'll be helping you or everybody real soon All right, uh, I don't know what to do now because Larry's not here to pick up the end of the show Uh, and I don't know how to talk to the people there in the tiger's den Maybe our production guy Al can tell me what to do now. I'm gonna just uh, I guess sign off now Here's my here's again my contact information And be sure you use this email address Uh, this is my email address to n with k yahoo.com Or you can call me with the same email on the Is the same address or you just call me if you're in the us here at that number All right, everybody have a great day a great week ahead And I'll pass it back to out there. Hopefully you will Hopefully Larry's going to get recharged and I'll be back with you soon. All right If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter You should try tom. 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Look at the same much chart as the uranium So this is a d and it's pulled back. This is in a cell signal uh, ethereum In the daily chart I by the end of the day, I might even upgrade it to a cell mode. All right So now let's go back to where we were looking at the iYT and the iYT is saying hey, I'm participating I'm just not leading But if the transportation index anytime into the first week of february is able to 261 Can actually go to 268 or 269? That'll be really good action. 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Okay, good afternoon everyone. I think we'll get started. I know there was another housing Panel before this so maybe they're gonna filter in at some point when they realize they this is the better panel So my name is Oscar Abello, and I'm monitoring the panel today on Home matters the impact of an affordable place to live and And just by way of introducing myself. I'm a contributing writer for next city Which is an urban policy planning and design publication? We've been around since 2003 and I've been on the community development beat for next city since to 20 since 2015 writing about some of the organizations up here on stage and some of the organizations represented in the audience from what I can tell and and our panelists I'm gonna ask them to kind of quickly introduce themselves and then Introducing who you are and where you and where you work. Could you just say a little bit about the the kind of The volume of affordable housing whether you want to say your annual volume or your current before portfolio size Just a little bit of a taste of how deeply you are into this space So I'll start over here with omit south sure I'm omit Satya, and I'm with Prudential Financial and I run our impact investing program It's about a billion dollar commitment from the company that's invested both in real estate as well as in operating businesses So it's kind of fun for us as being at SoCAP as we straddle. I think two worlds that don't always talk to each other Which is sort of the real assets world and the kind of business venture worlds and for us on the affordable housing side I'd say we've made it about 15 to 20 percent of the portfolio so about 150 to 200 million dollars invested At any given time so that's sort of outstanding and that cycles through every five years or so So that over its lifetime So it's a fairly substantial portion of the portfolio and for us. I think what's interesting It's thinking about sort of how some of the the tools techniques the logic that's used around affordable housing has Relevance both to that sector but also to the broader community of people who want to be impact investors Because for us one of the things that's been nice about the sector is that it has some of the data richness some of the deal size the geographic ability to Locate things that you don't always get with some of the business investments. Okay, great Debbie Debbie Campbell community housing capital. We're a CDFI located just outside of Atlanta and we Lend for affordable housing development and preservation This year we closed a bit over a hundred million dollars in activity and Our borrowers are community-based nonprofit developers who are developing housing solutions specifically geared toward the needs of the communities they serve and often have resident services layered in and are are looking at proximity to transit and Other attributes in the properties they developed that helped to make their residents More prosperous Thanks, Debbie. I'm Marilyn. I'm Marilyn Rivera with the community development trust. We're in our 19th year We are a national investor in affordable housing. We do long-term fixed-rate mortgages To help create affordable housing and we can also invest equity to preserve the affordable housing since inception we've had invested in about 1.4 billion dollars worth of assets 44,000 units in about 44 states So we have a have a very wide Wide band we work always with local partners both nonprofits and for profits and we're opportunistic we really look for Projects where we feel that we can add value Where there may not be that kind of capital that would come in to do what we're doing And so we are choosing about our partners and always looking toward making positive impact on the on the residents and their families And we track that carefully to know what those impacts are Thanks to Marilyn Michael. Hi. I'm Michael Solomon. I lead the community development program at Charles Schwab Bank Which I've been doing since 2010 Our our lending and investment program is driven by the banking regulations, but we're in the middle of Three-year program where we're lending for to buy lending and investing four to five hundred million dollars a year in economic development significant portion of it probably 70% is affordable housing driven and impact On low and moderate-income people so you know people who really need a place to live as as the driver of their financial security Starting next year starting in 2019 will probably be doubling our program Which is driven by the growth of the bank Before that I was at Merrill Lynch. I've been doing this for a long time and have lent and invested with all these folks In the past where we invest and lend for impact And we are willing to be any part of the capital stack. We do unsecured lending. We do equity investing. We do Structure finance we do innovative structures. Sure. We'll get into some of those today. Yeah Great. All right. So now that we have a few more folks in the audience We wanted to do a quick survey of everyone who's here so Could we have folks who have invested in affordable housing before could you could you raise your hands? Okay, it's about maybe a fifth of the audience So for those who have invested in affordable housing previously Have you done it through if could you raise your hands if you've done it through Individual projects so a deal here or a deal there Like using lie tech or some other history, maybe historic tax credits who's done the individual projects Not too many How about through funds? So, you know, whether it's there's different kinds of mortgage mortgage back securities funds. Okay, so And up for for everyone in the audience We're also interested in You know to what extent is community Ownership or engagement or participation in affordable housing development You know to what extent is that important to you in terms of the your your due diligence as impact investors Assuming you all consider yourselves impact investors So raise your hands if you feel like community engagement or ownership is an important piece of affordable housing for you Okay All right So I wanted to ask that question because You know, we have different kinds of investors and different kinds of fund managers up on stage So, um, I want to ask start with the fund managers and ask you a little bit could you say a little bit about your your model and who your borrowers are and what makes them particularly unique or special or different, you know, is there anything that that You know that makes that sets your borrower network apart from Just, you know any conventional affordable housing Uh, just the whole affordable housing industry So community housing capital, as I said as a cdfi we have nonprofit tax status And our borrowers are members of what's known as the neighbor works network So there are About 240 neighbor works organizations across the country. They're chartered by neighbor works america Which means that there is an extra layer of due diligence because in order to be a member of the neighbor works network You have to go through a lengthy and extensive review process And you're also subjected to Regular, um audits and and reviews of your business Our Our borrowers in the network, there are about 140 members of the network who actively engage In development or preservation of property As as part of the way that they Provide for the housing needs in their communities others others do counseling and those sorts of things But about 140 that do development And within those 140 it's a really interesting model Because what they are charged with are being Deeply connected to their communities and understanding the specific housing needs of those communities so the Transactions the properties that we finance range from transitional housing emergency homeless housing to senior housing to Housing for workforce And it is both multifamily and single family Rental and for sale and remember we're lending to the developers. So this is not this is not consumer mortgages We track impact fairly deeply And our model is that we have financial institutions who Provide us with the capital with the debt capital that we lend We use our equity to lever that debt and Michael is is one of our investors and I somebody asked earlier what separated us from the panel before And and the thing that immediately struck me is that It's not just about the the money not saying that the other panel was but it didn't come across in the conversations That I one of the things that sets us apart Is that we really enjoy thinking deeply together and figuring out How to best make our resources and our expertise work together all of us really to to get this work done and Just a little bit more about the neighbor works network of organizations. So this is a federally supported network of affordable housing developers all over the country And there's a there are board requirements that are that are important to community kind of leadership and ownership And so Neighbor works america is congressionally chartered And receives an appropriation and a significant portion of that appropriation Goes out in the form of grants capital grants and operating grants to members of the neighbor works network And of course they also have many other sources Of of capital and funding that come into their organizations Yeah, and is it is it is it 50 of the board members must be residents of the neighborhoods where they're building housing It varies some that that is A typical thing to see but in the in the very large organizations that have the bigger footprints While there is a deep stakeholder engagement that 50 number doesn't necessarily hold true Okay, thanks So maryland may I ask you the same question? You know tell me a little about your model Tell us about your model and who who are your borrowers? What makes them different? We have both nonprofit and for-profit borrowers Rather than having a network like chc People we tend to be opportunistic and people tend to find us It's unusual to have long-term patient Equity to preserve affordable housing And we have really gotten some traction on that with nonprofit Borrowers who are the general partner say in a property that's coming out of compliance for tax credit Or a vulnerable property That's going to be Made into To market rate housing and they know about us and know that we can act quickly And would come to us to do that On the on the mortgage side, I would say We have a lot of repeat borrowers, but we tend to do if it's a nice juicy Eight or ten million dollar first mortgage in in san francisco or new york There's a lot of lenders who want to do that. We tend to do Smaller mortgages maybe something with some hair on it. It's a rad transaction. It's it's something about it that makes it A little bit more complex and that we can you know take the time and be able to do that We can also do Long-term fixed rate forward commitments. So if you're building a low-income housing tax credit property You need to know when you close the construction loan What the rate on your permanent mortgage is going to be three years from now when you deliver it And that's a place where where we Where we compete very well, I think to be able to do that. So One of the great things and working with cdt for a long time Which I have is is to know that we have repeat borrowers to know that people came to us Maybe through a debt window and now we're looking at the equity I mean if you're as old as I am you've been in this field for a while You see these properties, which you know started it was great when they were built But now what are we going to do to preserve them? Yeah And I'm going to ask you to dig a little bit deeper into how is it you're able to offer equity as part of this finance It has to do with your structure your primary structure. This is really cool for affordable housing Thank you have one of these so we have all the acronyms. We're a cdfi community development financial institution but we elect to be Taxed as a real estate investment trust And the our deepest roots were in a non-profit and non-profit was great We thought we had a great credit compass and we were able to do Interesting work, but we're really limited by the amount of capital that we had And in 1998 we had this idea that if we Created a mission-driven real estate investment trust that we'd be able to sell stock So we went out closed our first raise in 1999 Prudential was in our first raise and has been with us, you know ever since We have a lot of people that were with us and and so we've been able to sell stock We've had two common stock raises and we are just about to close our third Preferred raise so we look at the capital stack. We know that we need a lot of you know common equity And then that enhances the preferred equity So we've been able to raise this money and put it into the these properties to ensure long-term affordability great and so We have we have two Investors in each of these organizations up here. So You know, we've heard a little bit about their borrowers. We've heard a little bit about their model Can I ask? I don't know if michael or omidie want who wants to go first What about this makes makes makes it work for you? We know why is it important for you to work to invest through these organizations there there are a limited number but growing number of tools to Create and preserve affordable housing CDFIs are one of the most critical tools we have in order to Create impact and increase the both the amount and quality of affordable housing CDFIs with whom we lend and invest are A linchpin of our program. We have over 300 million dollars out to CDFIs And we work with them both geographically We work with them across the capital stack. We work with them in specific programmatic initiatives for example We've worked with CHC to try to create a program that works on tribal lands CDT does a lot of programmatic initiatives and That are tailored to what the needs of their lenders and investors are And as we move forward It's also where a subsidy is, you know, there's a special part of a treasury department that provides over 200 million dollars a year in grant funding to CDFIs that can be used as equity For them to go and do higher risk things that banks like us would not be able to get approval to do But by lending and investing through the CDFI We can we can get that money out to where it's really needed the most so We couldn't we could banks couldn't work without some of these tools that create subsidy for the So that the chcs and the CDTs of the world can go out there and do the higher risk things that we could Couldn't lend indirectly but through a CDFI. We can we can do that work and have tremendous impact For people who are sort of new to the field, I think this is one of the things that is sometimes sort of Confusing is that in a large measure the affordability and affordable housing Is set by the various government programs that provide subsidies So it isn't because you've got a CDT or somebody else who owns the property that the actual affordability levels change Or even really the number of units that change But what does change radically depending on who you invest with are a couple of things so one The way the various federal programs are set up You can actually put different levels of sort of improvements into the property So depending on who owns a property you can have a lot more resident engagement You can have a lot more services on site You have property managers who really do a lot more to care about their tenant well-being Who bring in social services on site who create community and do all sorts of other sort of things that have huge impacts Actually on livelihood and well-being So when you think about families living in affordability The affordability is somewhat set by the regulatory regime, but the quality of life differs radically based on who owns it The other variable that I think is at play is that you have An important distinction I think between people who buy real estate looking to flip it on a relatively short horizon Who typically will go into existing affordable housing complexes and all of us living in expensive cities know this phenomenon Put money into kind of a class b property and try to raise rents radically The alternative to that is to actually find mission-owned stewards who will own those assets Put in the necessary capital improvements often get long-term tax statements and other Benefits to keep it affordable for a long duration And that's a huge part of the affordable housing puzzles that we really can't the amount of new We can create is largely fixed The amount we preserve is often a function of who owns those assets And that's why it's really important to have institutions like cdt So when maryland talks about why they're always going back to raise capital It's because they don't want to sell the properties. So every time they have to buy a new property They need to raise more and more capital For those of us who are sort of looking to invest though It's sort of the opposite of a lot of what you see an impact investing where you're investing in an unproven idea with very Uncertain economics. This is the polar opposite if you look at the sound of preferred stock that cdt sells every year It produces a reliable and fixed dividend Even the common equity produces a reliable and growing dividend It's a it's a very predictable place to invest and for those of us who are looking to have Predictable and relatively durable yield. It's a place to have A tremendous amount of impact by just simply having a longer Term perspective on capital and being able to work with great partners who can really improve tenant services And if you're a long-term owner the the payback for that is that actually Properties that are managed well and have great tenant quality of life have low turnover low vacancy And very little kind of physical maintenance because people take care of the complexes and properties And that all comes back to you as returns So it's a nice place for both having predictable returns and a deep alignment between returns And doing right by the occupants. Yeah So it really works for an insurance company In terms of the other things that you mentioned that you bring up So as as the as the investor in in the in funds like these What's your sort of way of interacting and gathering data and trying to make sure that you're holding yourself accountable to your goals Yeah, so for us from sort of it was interesting, right? Once we sort of recognize that to some extent the affordability of the units and the number of units is somewhat set by the Financial mechanisms and you can spend hours on that What we really started to look at as we chose investees was To look at people who were much who are treating tenants better And looking at people who took tenant livelihoods seriously and who looked at sort of reducing sort of the things If you've read books like evicted The the social costs of sort of high turnover poorly maintained complexes is really pretty horrific And what's interesting right is that even We've actually invested in some turnaround strategies where people take over kind of failing complexes And it's incredible to watch, you know with the desperate need for affordable housing when you see a complex That's only 60 70 percent occupied How when that happens, right? It means that somebody is really screwed up If you go into an affordable housing complex and it's not 99 percent occupied someone's doing something wrong And so we we really look to sort of bring in managers who know how to turn around complexes And the radical change in quality of life by both adding Filling the units that are empty, but addressing the underlying conditions is pretty profound. So that's how we look at And and debbie you you've done some of these deals where you you've gone into a neighborhood where there's there may be some interesting existing owners And you've helped these community-based organizations take over those properties And convert them into something that meets community needs. We have yeah Um, it's it's not unusual if if you look at the kind of endeavors that often exist in Neglected communities you have um I know the one that you're talking about where of of An owner was a um a bail bondsman and pretty much owned an entire block And had been renting that block for probably a long period of time and the houses were falling into disrepair they were would say everything from single room occupancy up to apartments and our nonprofit borrower acquired the entire block And worked with the capital stack was really complex as you could imagine to do to do such a large parcel of Gigantic mansion type single family homes that had fallen into disrepair in a historic district And so they were able to renovate all of the properties on the block. They were gorgeous and Create um of a fairly mixed income street again And offer housing choices that continue to be everything From SROs in this case if I recall correctly into some almost condominium sort of ownership opportunities so really Create a diversity of housing stock And economic diversity as as the street was reborn And uh on on the totally Opposite end of the spectrum There was a crazy deal in austin that I want I would love marillon to talk about tell me about tell us about this Deal with the austin city housing authority we were approached through a partner um that uh Subsidy area of the housing authority of the city of austin wanted to buy a market rate property About 640 units large property proximate to jobs great transportation maybe seven years old And they needed a lot of equity and a big chunk of debt to do it We loved the property and the idea was that this would be put into a single purpose entity And because the city of austin was involved in it that the the entity would not pay real estate taxes All of the savings from that real estate tax that wasn't being paid went to restrict 50 of those units at 80 percent of area median so Not quite overnight, but I think within about nine weeks that we you know heard about the deal and closed the deal And they could put the regulatory framework on it 320 units um and it's a beautiful property and it's you know just seems to hit everything and I Really applaud the um housing authority of the city of austin for being so entrepreneurial for for seeing this for seeing the need for the units And our great partner um who uh, you know the woman that introduced us to this transaction to say You know we think this is something that a cdt could do or you guys flexible enough to do this And i'll just brag on one transaction that we just closed Near the twin cities There's a large property there 440 units and it's sort of sister property which had been Naturally occurring as as lisa davis says there's nothing natural about naturally occurring, but it was just an affordable property It changed hands the new owner jacked up the rents and really almost everybody had to leave So there's a very strong non-profit in the twin cities area called aon and aon wanted to make a bid for this large property But needed you know the equity to be able to act quickly on it So we were able to close that preserve 440 units and when we looked at the number of children in that some 200 Uh preschool age kids and 250 school age kids don't have to move to a new school And i'm probably preaching to the choir here when you talk about the importance of affordable housing and There's a lot of various studies about health and outcome, but just you know having a kitchen table on which to do your homework You know can sort of help your performance at school to not being disrupted and happy to leave So we were delighted to work with aon and that And had some subsidies from the state of minnesota, but that's another one where Having the equity to act quickly with a great partner who we know Can really work with those families and give them whatever they need You know stories like these that really show why we funnel A significant portion of of our lending and investing through the cdfi community You know, they're the ones who are on the ground in the local communities Hearing what the actual needs of those communities are And while we we see trends so for example over the last, you know 15 years, there are any number of acronyms Today the latest is NOAA, which is the naturally occurring affordable housing But we've seen to which is the transit oriented developments after the financial crisis. We saw single family Home ownership become a critical need and and And cdfi's that had always done multifamily turned, you know their attention to single family Today what we're seeing a lot of returning veterans who are either homeless or lost or Both I suspect that in a few years we'll start hearing about Transitional housing for folks impacted by the opioid crisis, you know, we we we look at them to be to be on the ground We don't have branches schwaab Out there where we have, you know The local community can walk into the branch and say why aren't you doing this or why aren't you doing that? You know, we're out there listening to our communities through our intermediary partners In and hoping to put out as much capital That that we can We fund studies about what's important, you know the veteran the veterans crisis Which is just starting to bubble up on the surface Is not as well known because there have not been as much there's not been worked on around it But I can assure you that that you're going to see a lot more of it And the intermediary community Particularly a network like chc, which you know, they're an intermediary, but they're They're at a level above the actual Local developers that work within the neighbor works america network They've got tentacles everywhere and and we can go to them and say Hey, we want to put money here or we want to put money there Not only geographically but but there is a focus that that We've decided are important to the bank and and They they put it out there. We can leverage tremendous amounts of capital And we'll open it up for audience questions in a minute, but I think omid you wanted to add something I just wanted to build off what maryland said, which is that I think one of the things that's really distinctive about affordable housing in the us is that People have been trying to solve these problems now for the better part of 40 50 years if not longer And so it's a somewhat mature industry and generally speaking There's a decent set of federal policies that provide a pretty solid underpinning for a lot of institutions The problem is those federal programs while there's generally pretty good bipartisan support for them There's no support for really expanding them. And so there's a positive enabling environment But it's a largely fixed enabling environment at the federal level And so some of the most exciting things that are going on or where localities like austin or new york city or other Places between cities are really thinking about what can they do in local communities to make this happen? And so whether it's inclusionary zoning, whether it's tax abatements to provide for affordability This is one of those fields where actually local communities can Do a lot and especially because they're working out the margin It's a huge difference between projects that can and can't happen where you have good localities And I think what's exciting for people in this room who are advocates or even who are investors Is that there are opportunities to really push Municipalities and places in which you live To think much more creatively about what tools can be brought to bear on solving for some of these affordability issues And then you know, and I think again these these models are great because you can trade Some of the strength that a lot of the markets that we're all in To provide the affordability, right? So you can give people up zoning You can give people infrastructure You can give people lots of benefits in exchange for the affordability And that's where I think the next five to ten years of this field are going to get really interesting And you know for investors out there who Who are looking to to do something different, you know, there's There's a long history It's very difficult to lose money In an environment where the government is subsidizing your investment To some degree you're not going to make a 30 i or r and and you know have 25 companies where you're expecting Five zeros and and you hope for a 10x or a 20x But you're going to be doing as much important work as any as any of those companies are and You're you're not going to lose money and you're going to be able to create impact in your local community We should be screaming to the rafters about how How how it's a profitable thing to do In in, you know for the SOCAP community Yeah, so one more question to the audience before we get go to them for questions So so who here is looking to expand their impact investing to other parts of their portfolio beyond Say a venture capital or a private equity piece Um, you know, who is looking to do impact investing as a fixed income fund of some kind or You know, uh, or or yes one person We have one Two three, okay Um I mean the the interest I think in this space has been become really exciting Just in the past year, you know, we've had two CDFIs community development financial institutions actually access the bond markets earlier this year two two public bond offerings Lisk, um, they're here. Also their investment bank is also here Morgan Stanley And then reinvestment fund worked with back Bank of America Merrill Lynch on their offering. Those are Both investment grade bond offerings On terms as short as five years and as long as 20 years So there in this other parts on these other parts of the of the of the of the capital world Are starting to see and have opportunities to invest in this kind of work And I think they need it right if you're an insurance company You've got like your there's a there's a there's a model that you have and this just works for you Yeah, so um audience any questions from the audience? We have a mic that's going to come around so I think we do But we did at some point Certainly there is more caution when you hear about some of the things that that um Are are potentially out there from folks who are being put there to Not to to end it, you know Having said that I I think that You know, you said I said earlier there is significant support for these things across the aisle and Nobody is going to be diminishing the funding to such a degree that um, it's going to fall apart, you know For project-based section 8 for example, so that's a that's for those of me that know that's actually a set aside for the entire project For affordability instead of the section 8 voucher system where individuals could just go walk around Even if they were cuts those deals are still going to get funded For the next 10 or 15 years. Maybe it'll affect new things I would say with the low income housing tax credit what you saw Frankly after the election confirms the view that it's going to be around Because immediately. Yeah, the market seized up But immediately the federal government within four months of the worst financial crisis in our history in our lifetimes Came in and and created this, you know cash for converted some of the credits to cash and so Yeah, there's there's certain there's uncertainty. There's always going to be uncertainty But I think that that that there's such a need and it's so out there that You're going to see eventually the support stabilize and and yeah, you got to use more caution, but The investments are there and they always will be that's my view Any others want to respond I just add that You know, we have seen dislocation in the in the low income housing tax credit market and that slowed down a lot I'd say that we've seen the an uptick in the last just a few weeks With people thinking, okay, it's going to end up here. That's what my return is going to be I'll go ahead and make those investments But I think it underlines the importance of preserving what we have That you know, this is an incredibly valuable resource for for families for individuals for people getting started the affordable housing that we have And where we're never going to be able to create our way out of the demand that we have for it We really need to underline the The preservation of it and you can do that sometimes without the national sources Like we did in in austin with the city of austin understanding that and willing to forgo the real estate taxes on those units to preserve those Right and here in california. We just passed Finally, you know, there's about three billion dollars now that's going to be coming through To for for affordable housing under the you know, what was just passed It took a long time, but we got there Up here How are you sort of are you sort of actively looking for opportunities? Are you changing your underwriting standards? Are you you know, what what's your thinking on that? I've got a great houston example and we're very proud of it. It's a property that we own outright Usually we're the limited partner But in this one our general partner wanted out There's no There's no formal restrictions on that property, but we've asked the manager to keep it affordable 40 percent affordable But about a year and a half ago we put several million dollars in it including hurricane glass redoing all the roofs and the You know and I'm really glad that we did it because that property did really well in in through the through the hurricane We've had some other properties that Were more adversely affected, but I really feel as though That understanding and building physical needs and and taking care of those When you buy a property or or can when you acquire the property to be able to make sure that that happens Um is is vitally important. We have another one named coney island Which suffered badly under sandy? Residents were stranded on the ninth floor elderly people with no elevators going up and down and with a partner We moved the mechanicals up a floor and a half so that the burner was up there redid a lot of the HVAC systems on it and you know made it a more resilient property It's just blocks from the beach the whole building was was raised up anyhow But to put the mechanical system up at least next time that's not going to happen. So We usually when we acquire a property with an equity investment We we have a long-term look at what the physical needs assessments will be And and want to ensure that So that those are two examples And in our case, I would say that because our borrowers are community-based nonprofits They are on the ground and they have a deep understanding of what their community needs and As mission-based organizations, they're looking far beyond providing a unit of housing So they're looking at increased energy efficiency. They're looking at proximity to transit. They're looking at how what they do Raises the the opportunities for prosperity of not only their residents, but they're often in underserved communities So they also look at how what they're doing can can lever other ass other assets and other investments into the communities where they work Um, could I In terms of this question this question has come up a few times and I think it's an important one And I want to also link it to another question Which is Uh, so the low income housing tax credit properties generally speaking Uh, after 30 years, that's when they come up for you know, the investors will pull out and they'll come It'll we'll lose that stock of affordable housing after 30 years Well, when did the for when did the low income housing tax credit first come into use? 1987 1988 when did it really start ramping up in the early 90s? So in the next five ten years We're going to have massive opportunities You know the the the the tax credit funded health fund the creation of around three million units of affordable housing across the country as those Units come up to the end of their compliance periods periods as it's as it's known Um, are there opportunities that you've seen to step in refinance and when that refinance happens Oh, we might as well do some kind of climate resilience lending on top of that Is that something that you guys have seen? Yes, the answer is yes. Yeah, so yeah absolutely And and frequently the limited partner who invested in the tax credit Doesn't want to wait for the full compliance. They want out year 14 15 So when we buy properties at that time, we do a full physical needs assessment They don't often need a full, you know gut rehabilitation They may be ready for a four percent or a nine percent credit But yeah, that's a time to look to do that and we I think that we are long-term holders But the idea is that at a certain point of building, you know, we have the first equity property. We ever invested in But at some point that building is going to need more rehabilitation than even our, you know, good management Has done and and we've reserved for at that time. It would make sense for us to take our fair market value out And to have a new limited partner that will re-syndicate that property and do a full rehab so But we we think about that all the time, you know How how long those buildings are going to be in good enough shape and and what we can do to maintain them But to your point, I mean, I think socially this is a big challenge, right? Is that The credits that get used to essentially Read, you know called re-syndicate the affordability so extended another 30 years our credits that don't go Into something else And so if you're looking at this on sort of a macro level We are at a place where we do need either increase funding or other mechanisms to promote affordability Otherwise we already have a gross insufficiency and those problems are only going to get worse Go ahead. Oh, here's the microphone behind you Considering that we're at so cap and there's been so many sessions on Combining impact investment with hospital funding and all these other creative funding sources What is the appetite and what is the most creative way that you have? Help to make affordable housing happen One of the things that's really interesting to your question is that I you know some of the obama care reforms that actually sort of put a big burden on hospital systems and others to actually care for the well-being of their catchments Have taken actors who never thought about affordable housing into thinking about it As being somewhere they can put capital and actually improve well-being And so you're starting to see like hyzer a few of dignity health and a few others invest in entities like cdt invest in affordable housing it is sort of another really creative opportunity to bring in New sources of capital and then people quite frankly who on our side. We've been desperate to bring into those complexes So it'd be great to have primary care facilities and other facilities integrated into some of these complexes So I think you're right that it's a really exciting opportunity you know Creating and preserving Existing affordable housing I think are two sides of the same coin and there are any number of things that happen over a long period of time that can adversely impact that And and so when I think about something creative that that we did in the past It goes all the way back to 2001 after september 11th If you lived in an affordable housing property You couldn't get insurance For your property or it was 10 times more expensive than and then Then before september 11th and so we worked with with a nonprofit to actually create an insurance company That would provide stable pricing insurance To a to these to these properties And it's now a 15 billion dollar insurance company And it it's not the cheapest But it doesn't go up and down when you think about the variable costs for for managing a property insurance, you know labor Are are one of the you know are the main variables and to have a stable pricing insurance over the long term This company makes a lot of money too for the owners who are all nonprofit developers who put their projects into this insurance company so You know Creating and preserving affordable housing you have to you think of it from a lot Yeah, I think of it from a lot of different angles because by doing that you can you can make it more affordable Well, yeah, I would say you mentioned being at SoCAP that I think we're not talking about on this panel and not even that much at the conference But it's a big part of the equation is that It's too expensive to build Right. I mean here at an end of paragraph and we haven't seen a lot of innovations actually San Francisco Is the most notorious probably in the country, right? So a huge part of the affordability crisis Costs you $700 a foot to build something It's you know, no amount of creative financing is going to solve for just systematic lack of sort of innovation and scaled models to build No, but to that point, you know SoCAP is a place for people to think creatively about solving problems You know, there are ways There are other ways to do it and and people are thinking about those things So for example, there's a company out there, which the name escapes me that takes old shipping containers and stacks them and designs them and attaches them and creates housing Out of them and these are just stuff that would get thrown away And you see some really cool designs And people come by them and they're they're affordable or the they build a building out of it and and rent it That's what we need to be thinking about and that company makes money So, you know, it's up to you folks too to think about how we can solve this problem in different ways You guys are the creators of the future or the present And I would say oscar that We have struggled across sectors as far as sourcing capital To invest in creating and preserving affordable housing Our The banks get it the banks are in there in a big way And while everybody acknowledges The role that having a stable Good place to live that you can afford is fundamental To health to education to all of these these other outcomes We have really really struggled To figure out what is it going to take to get some resources that Are typically motivated by their care around education or health or these other things To come into housing to help to build that foundation that will make their other strategies have longevity Any other questions from the audience? I think I did I guess we're coming up to the end here. So I'll come I did have one last question to kind of Since again since since we are at soak up as we What are either from the investor's perspective or from the the cdfi's perspective? What are some of the the wacky ideas you have for accessing In the cdfi's case accessing other parts of the capital spectrum or as from the investor's perspective Ramping up, you know, like do you need is it our Would having other kinds of investors Along for the ride that you're going on with that. How would that help you and what kinds of vehicles or mechanisms? Have you seen where You could engage others Well, certainly diversifying the sources of capital, you know, the the banks Are are heavily regulated and have certain things that they can and can't do and so there are Dimensions of the work that that we do that their money can't be used for And so money that fills that flexible that that flexible niche also Because of the way that our organization is structured We use equity to lever debt And our ability To lever debt and to really scale the response depends on bringing in equity And it's hard and so figuring out that equity piece And then I think that there are also a lot of opportunities around pris Now that the guidance has been clarified The stumbling block in my mind is is an elegant entry point and I go back to Our multibank facility that was led by morgan stanley Where a framework was created that all of the banks could agree on And it your your third party cost dropped your your Compliance reporting became more efficient and more streamlined So one of the questions that I grapple with is whether or not That that same structure and those lessons learned could be applied to create a more elegant and efficient entry point for pris One of the things I think we're we're going to look at you mentioned that the asset profile This is actually quite compelling to insurance companies to pensions to high net worth individuals And so we're working with our asset management businesses to sort of look at strategies to commercialize that a little bit more And bring in capital I think one of the things that's changing for for big institutional holders is that There are not a lot of places to be able to get kind of predictable returns, especially long dated into the future And so I think that's something that could change and then I think you mentioned something that's also exciting Which is that so much of what we talked about at soak up soak up isn't available to retail investors So there's very little any of us can do with our sort of limited assets But I think some of the retail products you mentioned are really exciting and that there are other examples of stuff that is coming into Things that you know individuals can invest in through their retirement accounts You know, I'd just like it to see to be a part of everybody's portfolio, whether your mission related investment from a foundation or a family office, this is low risk high impact and I think Somehow people think oh the government's handling it or whatever But when you think where where do your kids preschool teacher live, you know, what can they afford to live? and I think that Working with partners and there's many of partners beyond the two of us sitting here at the at the table But that as a part of your portfolio, I know that there's Higher return things that you could do, you know betting big on a on a nascent entrepreneur That there's very impactful things that you could do with a Project in a in another country, but I feel like this could just be as amid says sort of your long dated bond I mean it just pays it's low risk, but it's great impact And would like to to see that spread and have more people Engage and invest I don't think there's anything wacky that comes to mind, but What I would say about soak up, you know, so The entrepreneurship around the people who come to soak soak up is just tremendous So for example, think about the things that you do and think about every day So why can't you crowdfund affordable housing? You know you crowdfund everything else Why can't you Figure out ways to you know, we talked about climate change figure out ways to marry Some of the things we're doing in the energy sector with housing, you know, we've we've tried for a long time to put solar You know to deal with solar, you know, we don't we're not we don't know how to do everything I suspect that there are people who can figure out a way to do that better than than we've tried You know, we're hearing about what's going on in Puerto Rico and Elon Musk has said he can Can solve all their energy problems. Well, how they're going to do it. They're going to put in people's homes So I I would say think about the things that you're thinking about every day and how can you apply it to housing Okay well One last chance for an audience question Otherwise, uh, our time is coming to a close So let me just thank you our panelists again Thank you And I thank everyone for coming to our our discussion. Have a great rest of soak