Okay so the session today is entitled Murphy versus Krugman. You can see the way I've set up this PowerPoint the importance of framing effects This you guys I'm betting. How many of you think this is photoshopped Okay, well this guy does all right. It's not photoshopped. That's really me Those are not really my muscles though just to be clear. So this was my Halloween costume so we're gonna talk a little bit about there is a A few perhaps you could say there's a reason that people associate me versus Krugman Tom would saw an entrepreneurial opportunity and tried to latch on to my wagon as I was going up. So this is This is for the throat in case you don't know let me just give up a plug for the podcast So Tom and I had this podcast contra Krugman. Let me say it was his idea He called me up originally and I was like, I don't know if I want to do that We're gonna be just you know pigeonholed and the more he talked about it. I said, oh, yeah We got to do this time. This is gonna be great And so what it is every week we take one of Krugman's op-ed columns and we go through it and dissect it And the point is to entertain but also to teach Austrian economics and show the flaws and in Keynesian analysis So let me just say some words about that for a minute cuz some people we get various types of criticism Some people say, you know, what do you do when you're giving this guy a platform and it's kind of like Well, I think the New York Times already did that and you know, he won that whole Nobel thing You know if you're into that stuff. So For better or worse a lot of people's room would say for worse Krugman has this platform And he is the voice of sort of snarky Keynesian economics. So Tom I said why couldn't we be the voice of snarky Austrian economics, right?   All right, so All right, so as far as let me just mention what since I brought that topic up. I think the way Krugman Analyzes these things the way he goes to sleep at night.  He can produce different results depending on what he needs the answer to be So that's something I'm gonna hit on it a little bit later But I want to say that officially up front that I that's really the problem I have with Krugman and you'll notice that if you listen to the podcast I make this point frequently It's not so much in any particular argument that what Krugman is saying and the assumptions He's making to get that result is that particularly crazy. I mean as an Austrian economist You say it's not good economics The methodology is bad and you know the type of model he's building is not good But the assumptions he picks and the things he's gonna include in the analysis and the stuff He says we can safely leave this aside for right now Those things change week to week But the thing that's always the same is that there's a role for bigger government and in particular There's a role for Hillary Clinton's bigger government. All right, and so that's partly why also He's he's you know vexes us so much is it's not even like he's in Idiologue so much as he's a partisan that he actually like really likes it's not even just he's a he's a Democrat with a capital D But a Hillary Clinton Democrat, so it's particularly Annoying in that respect so that's that's the point of the podcast and it's funny Like I say we get criticism from both sides when we started out and some people were telling us you guys are being too nice I think the guy would be okay I'm not I don't even know the guy's name to repeat it But he said something like you guys are just treating it like he's making honest intellectual mistakes when it's like this guy He's defrauded my uncle or something and I really want you guys to you know Sick it to him and then other people though say hey I try to share this with my friends who like Keynesian economics who like Paul Krugman and they say you guys are Snarky so we do we do face those those trades you can't make everybody happy so fortunately Tom and I have fun And if you guys want to listen go ahead so now here's another thing now this is not an actual photo This was not my previous Halloween costume. Let me explain this was actually in the economist So let me just give you the story here As to why this isn't again for those who don't know like why was this titled Murphy versus Krugman? It's more than simply all because Bob doesn't like that guy. There's there's more of the story. Although that is true so This was in the this was a caricature in the economist that was Developed it was talking about like the relationship of mainstream economics in the heterodox challengers and this is one of the Things they had so just to be clear. This is the only time I've ever been in the economist magazine thus far in my career so The the the backstory is so don't do it right now But at some point if you haven't seen it you and 25,000 other people have enjoyed this this video stoke the fear That I made the the background to this it's a it's a I'll condense the story for you But you I don't want to leave you guys in the in the dust and if I'm gonna show this picture You got to know what the heck generated this What happened was I got I was writing for me says that org articles criticizing Paul Krugman a lot about his macro policies and things like this nature and then This girl emails me and said hey, I was just at a Barnes and Noble or something where Krugman had a new book coming out I think it might have been his end this depression now But I can't remember like I've had to look at the timeline to see to be able to place it but he had some pop book that was coming out and He was doing the book tour and you know going and doing signings and so on and there was a Q&A session And so she was a fan of the Austrian school and so said hey Dr. Krugman This is great stuff But what you debate someone from the Austrian school about Austrian versus you know Keynesian macro economics when it comes to business cycles and why do we have the housing bust and so forth and He and she was telling me he said something like I know this is gonna sound elitist and I'm not and I'm dodging the question But it's not worth it. No serious economist takes the Austrians for real And I would just be giving them a platform for no reason. So no, I'm not gonna debate them Right, so he said that publicly to her and she was letting me know and so that I started Thinking okay, how can I you know get him to debate an Austrian and I went and saw that The the Facebook movie and you know, it's like yeah We need to like a big thing like that and it was getting me to think along those lines And so I came up with the idea and you remember those I forget the name of it with those animation You could make like animated figures talk to each other with does someone remember what the name of that was There's like eight things you guys have said none of those the ones I'm looking for okay Well, it's it's something that was not what they just all yelled out But anyway, it was like hello Jill would you like to go to the movie with me and she's like no I would not I'm busy that night and they like you would just talk like that. Okay. That wasn't like a re-enacted from my high school days that was So what I made a thing and I had a debate challenge to Krugman and the thing that made it unique if you will was There was a special platform for funding things where you had a lot of distributed Support for it and you could make conditional pledges right so it wasn't just saying hey I'm raising money to do some projects But it was if a sufficient number hit it then it would it would kick in right and so this was like the parent site And there were some spin-offs that were more commercial like for restaurant promotion stuff But this was like the original website that had this idea and so that was the platform I set it up on so it was like a no commitment But the higher so that the deal was the way it was structured is if Paul Krugman ever agreed to debate me then The pot of money that had accrued to that point would get donated to a New York City food bank Okay, and so that was the the leverage if you will says hey It's not you know, it's for charity and it's a New York City food bank if Paul Krugman would debate me And so then this just started you know I set up a website Krugman debate whatever and I started making these goofy videos to promote it So anyway, this was one of the the first ones where I'm training and I and I had my shirt off and so forth and I'm showing the guns and And so anyway it got up to be over a hundred thousand dollars was pledged You know so you people would put in their credit card information But your credit card wouldn't get dinged until Paul Krugman agreed to debate me and that clause got satisfied And so it was what I was thought was gonna happen was that like progressives would say Paul just destroy this guy and get a Hundred thousand dollars to go to the food bank, but that's I didn't see ever a single progressive Say to him. Why don't you just wipe the floor with this guy instead? It was all oh, this is blackmail, you know Like I was you know that the kids were about to eat and I was like no you don't not until So so anyway, so I had you know all these these videos and mostly like I was friends with Glen Jacobs, you know I was wondering could I get him to do like a rocky thing where he's you know Hulk Hogan and picking me up and throwing me and stuff, you know I had I was I was worried Krugman agreed to debate me before we unrolled all these videos that I had in mind Fortunately that didn't happen so but what ended up people ask me like what happened to this thing so one thing is that Krugman did officially say he wasn't gonna so I don't he says look up move Paul's book by Murphy on YouTube for his response All right, so if you go to YouTube and just the title of the video is move Paul's book is his official response What happened is he was Promoting a different book. He guys sells a lot of books. Yeah give him that he was on it like a talking your talk show radio Program and somebody called in and I don't know if the guy like ambushed him like told the call screen or one thing Or if the call screener thought this hey, this will be fun. Let's go instead ask him You know some question about GDP this will be this will be more interesting for people driving around listening But in any event this guy called it and he was yeah, dr. Krugman There's the the Austrian school of economics and they've you know They've made some good predictions and so on and I think there's this guy Bob Murphy's got this debate challenge And I'm wondering what you know, why aren't you debating him? And so Krugman's on the space on a live call and show and they the call screener let this guy through it's probably a closet Austrian and And so Krugman goes this is this is a serious policy debate This is not going to be settled by who has the quickest sound bite and what you know So like he's saying I'm just the clown and he's not gonna Debate me so that that was the official thing the other part was just two reasons for why I kind of let this Die away was well the third one is that now Tom and I have a podcast So that's a better vehicle, but the other thing was that it The the person I had contacted the head of the food bank just to make sure like the philanthropy guy the you know Who the raises funds for just to make sure they were okay with it It wasn't unseemly or anything and that if the check did come through they would be fine with it And I told him and he said yeah, that's fine Like we have barcrawls and we have all sorts of things that people do in the community You know he was gonna take money was gonna refuse the check But then his that guy left and some other guy was there and I was emailing him and he wasn't returning my emails Like I was just making sure are you still okay with this? So either he was busy or he was a Keynesian so that was that and then and the other thing too just There's a fine line between being funny and using a food bank as the vehicle and like I don't know I'm making fun Of people who are hungry, so I felt like I'm getting close to being a jerk So I backed off on that one so the moral of the story is if you want to boost your career I'm not saying it's for everybody, but if you do a topless scene sometimes things happen, so It's true in economics is true elsewhere Okay, let me talk a little bit about economics. That's probably why you're here So I'm gonna go through some of the issues that Krugman Talks about in his column and then to give you sort of the Austrian Response on this so one thing is Brexit now here his position has been a little bit nuanced and we'll talk about that But he did Start out so he agreed with the the common view that Brexit is gonna make the British people poorer And so let's make sure you understand them the mechanism by that He was saying was gonna be about 2% perpetual reduction in income. All right, and he was saying though just to be fair He was not thinking it was gonna be catastrophic He was so he said yeah, that's a big hit a lot of things would not be that big of a deal and that's pretty Significant, but he was saying that that's not in the grand scheme, you know that that huge thing but it will make them poorer and Tom and I took took that issue on in our in the podcast And so let me just make sure you understand the argument here because I think it's important rather a lot of people a lot of like free Market types and pro secession people who are against large centralized governments They were sort of taking that at face value the argument that all the British people are gonna be poorer because of this But they're saying hey, but you know money's not everything and who cares This is you know for a matter of political sovereignty, but Tom and I were questioning this So the first of all just think through the logic of it Why would it be the case that brexit would make the British people poorer? It would have to be because they're gonna lose access now to European markets And that was the analysis crewman was relying on he was doing back at the envelope calculations to talk about tariff rates in general being higher how much of British trade like pre entering the EU and then post and so forth That that was the arguments he was going through to try to see how much of an effect would this have and so Tom And I pointed out that okay, so you're you're admitting then that by being in The EU that means you have tariff barriers against outsiders Right because if that weren't the case of being in the in you allowed you to trade with the rest of the world Freely then whether you were in or out that wouldn't affect you right? So if the if the argument for remaining in in terms of helping your people in terms of they're just standard prosperity Is that you have access to the EU markets then that clearly means the people in the EU are not trading freely with the rest of the world So there was that element to be to just say for it that now at least the people in Great Britain have the ability To have unilateral trade deals with other countries around the world. So on that even taking this as a given It's not clear which way that cuts. It's possible that by having the freedom to contract with other countries and just have one off trade deals with them The great the people in Great Britain are going to have more Free trade on that but the other issue is just why Someone might if you were for free trade you might favor Secession as a more general principle and not just on this one particular Issue because the the larger context here is people were saying it's not just if Great Britain does it what if Other countries start one by one, you know, Germany says, you know We're sick of carrying this team and we're going to just go off and have our own thing and not have these Freeloading countries draining us and so on if countries just all start breaking apart. That's the thing people are really worried about And so Tom and I pointed out that if what the specific Concern is is tariff barriers and free and open trade Then the more secession there is you would think other things equal that would make a stronger argument for lower tariff barriers in general And so just think through the logic of it in the united states for example It it's possible you could have free trade within the united states But have a high tariff barrier, you know in terms of vis-a-vis the rest of the world, right? That has happened historically and the people who are Against free trade often point to the u.s. Example is showing see you can have a strong industrialized economy Getting richer even with high tariff barriers Okay, so if you're against tariffs you would say that was in spite of them and so on but Clearly it's possible for that to happen Your country doesn't plunge into utter chaos If you have high tariffs if you have a big country because what happens is the domestic free trade allows for the division of labor Internally, but it would be crazy for like an individual city To say we're going to have free trade domestically, but we're going to have a high tariff barrier Against the rest of the world right if it's just a city of a million people All right, and even more so like an individual household that would be really insane If one household had a tariff barrier against the rest of the world They would starve to death right you grow in your own food making your own clothes and so on So the the point we were saying is if secession became more widespread Then these countries they couldn't they wouldn't have the luxury of having high tariff barriers against the rest of the world They would have to lower their tariff barriers and also the smaller jurisdictions The more there's free mobility Just in terms of competition right that you if you have a smaller jurisdiction people have more exit options And that tends to keep the level of government Manageable so just isn't a side. I mean that's one of the arguments historians make For why did what we call political liberty? Why did that originate and what you would think of as western europe and not like in china or africa And one of the conventional explanations that has to do with geography and things of that nature But just for various reasons it wasn't planned. It was like a spontaneous order that People know sovereign had control over a wide expansive territory. There was a lot of splinter jurisdictions And so then competition among them the nobles and you know, they they stood up for their rights the magnet card and all that stuff And so they it was because of those reasons that political liberty as we know it sort of developed accidentally All right, so again saying we challenge krugman's Views on this thinking that it's it's not correct that that would be permanently poor Okay, another Aspect now and this is what i'm going to talk about what i mentioned earlier. This is one example I think i'm going to have another one in the talk about how krugman makes some assumptions For one argument where it buttresses the conclusion he wants But then next week when he needs the assumptions to go the other way he flips them So let me explain it in context of brexit and then relate it to an earlier column So with brexit Krugman had stuck his neck out saying yes, this is going to make them poorer the the british people if they do this But my colleagues who are predicting bloody disaster They're overshooting, you know, they're they're exaggerating. It's not going to be that bad And or at least i haven't seen anybody convince me why it would be so bad All right, so i i'm agreeing with krugman in that respect that he often does try to be nuanced. I will give him that uh credit And so he said okay what i'm seeing now is Once the stock market kind of recovered after the brexit vote krugman's thinking i told you guys and then a lot of his colleagues were saying The way that the mechanism by which brexit is going to cause really a really bad economy beyond just tariff barriers being slightly higher Is that it causes uncertainty right everybody freezes up Because they don't know what's coming right the the vote's uncertain It's not even clear if they actually are going to leave the eu now the people are reconsidering and seeing the logistical nightmares involved and so Krugman says okay, but think through like no one's shown me a model. Why why would uncertainty per se cause a long-term A long-term reduction in economic growth. He's saying and he walked through an example. He says yes, say some guy Wants to open a shopping mall in this district. That's heavily dependent on tourism and it you're forecasting and saying if Britain stays in then that flow is there and you want to invest in the mall But if not, you know if if you knew they were leaving then they wouldn't invest there And he's saying what they had uncertainty. How is that making us poorer than we otherwise would be relative To if we knew what was going to happen. Okay, so he's saying yes, you're going to be poor if they don't make that investment because of The brexit vote, but it's not like over and above because of the uncertainty because this point was eventually You'll know what's going to happen right if it's another 18 months then that just means okay instead of Investing in a smooth flow for a while Will happen as they'll be a drop in investment then when the uncertainty gets resolved. They'll be a big spike But he was saying over the long term It's just changing the timing of the investment. All right, so you guys you get you get his point So he's saying yeah right now investment might be lower than it otherwise would have been because of this uncertainty But five years from now looking backwards. It's not like aggregate investment in gdp is going to be Lower than it otherwise would have been it's just going to be lumpier It would have pushed it forward a little bit until we wait to see exactly what the situation is All right, so that's what's his argument and that's I actually kind of agree with that right that's that's good The problem is he made the exact opposite argument like two or three weeks earlier Where the context was there was I I forget I can I would have to look it up If you guys want if you want to see the thing I can get it for you after the talk but one of the fed Governors or somebody was talking about low interest rates and saying You know, we we don't think that Another ray cutter like negative interest rates is really on the margin Going to stimulate the economy very much He said because all it would really do is pull investment projects forward All right, so you guys so again, so Krugman's quoting someone who's critiquing The standard Keynesian view which says we need to goose spending Interest rates now are still too high and so we got to push them down to be even lower By the way, just as a general remark It's amazing to me that they push interest rates down to zero percent and they still say well, it's not enough Right, so it's it's amazing that how how far and they just keep saying well No, clearly it's not enough that what would the world need to look like for them to say Maybe this isn't working but back to this particular controversy So the the critic of Keynesian economics was saying It's not clear to me why pushing interest rates down another 25 basis points Is going to really do anything if somebody makes an investment because they go down a little bit Really, isn't that just going to be that they're building the factory now Because of the you know the bargain on interest rates instead of when they would have built it 18 months from now and so it's not going to over a five-year span Cause more total investment spending it's just going to pull it forward a little bit And Krugman was scratching his head at that saying I can't even come up with a model where that would be true All right, he's saying the critic is wrong. Of course if we if it boosts spending now It's going to have a permanent effect. So it's I suppose you could say in the two weeks span Krugman all of a sudden became more creative and all he could come up with a model But I think it more the better explanation and again, there's lots of examples like this is where Krugman Always ends up with the argument for the Keynesian policy prescription But he changes the assumptions to get the result that he wants Okay, let me talk a little bit about this issue of predictions and economics. So if you have been reading Krugman You know that he's he's made a big deal of this. All right, so it might be hard for you in the back to see this But he says uh At the bottom of the truth is that basic macro economics islm tight macro the stuff that's an econ 101 textbooks Has performed spectacularly well in this crisis. All right, so this is a running theme with Krugman that His models predict better right that they make forecasts about what's going to happen with GDP inflation interest rates and that people who were warning against this stuff made their own set of predictions And the Keynesian predictions were right and the other predictions were wrong And so therefore Keynesian economics is is more scientific and the people clinging to these other views Are clearly unscientific and ideal ideologues right because they refuse to to move in the in the face of evidence against their favor Okay, so let me first just explain the standard austrian view And you know, how does this relate? How do you do science? In economics, so praxeology and predict prediction praxeology, of course, is the the logic of action I know some of this is review, but this is a subtle point and maybe I probably will say it in different words than what you Would have heard earlier in the week So yes, mis is definitely thought economics was a science All right, but its method was different from those in the natural sciences Okay, so what happens is in economics in particular They think the physicists are really smart and they want to be like the physicists Okay, they have there's a term like physics envy to make fun of economists who have this perspective and And so they wanted to model paul samuelson If you know that name was one who really took economics in that direction so that if you looked at Journal articles, they all became mathematical proofs and in economics journal articles So misa's thought that was a mistake That a better so this is me talking not misa's necessarily But what i'm saying is if you want to think of an analogy a better one is something like geometry Okay, so in physics Yeah, we don't really know anything about How an electron feels Okay, we don't know what it's like to be an electron All right, at least I don't maybe some of you do right, but you don't know what it's like to be an electron And so really all you can do when it comes to different models of nature Is make predictions about Observations you're gonna make that's really the criterion for what's a better theory than another one Whereas in economics, we do have some insight We know what it's like to you know have preferences and to Have a rational plan to achieve some goal to engage in action And so you can start from that premise now again if you want to like I say use an analogy Start starting from the action axiom you logically deduce things about action per se And so if that sounds weird to you and sounds unscientific or unrigorous Just use geometry as an analogy in geometry you do something very similar You start with axioms and you logically deduce propositions about that And you don't go out and test them All right, so if your teacher teaches you the Pythagorean theorem That's something if you grasp the the Truth of that you have it Right, you know what that is and you wouldn't say well, let me go test Let me go get a thousand triangles and measure them and see what percentage You know does this hold true and it's either a hundred percent or if it doesn't I'm going to think maybe I measured wrong And keep rechecking it If if that's what you were doing you would be missing the point you wouldn't get what it means to prove something in math All right, so certainly you can illustrate it And if you're going to teach kids the Pythagorean theorem You would do well to actually draw a triangle rather than just you know teaching it to them some abstract language That you wouldn't want to show it to them But again the the proof of the Pythagorean theorem is not something you do empirically right that would be missing the point It would be very misleading if you went if you allowed people to do that Again, it would just be to apply it to maybe get them to understand what it's saying to let them play with real world triangles But that's not the way you would prove it um But even having said that though Does that mean that that I just show you that geometry really is just a bunch of word games right because that's something critics Of massessy and praxeology say once they they hear mises talk about this is the way economic science should be built up They say okay, well then you're really just going around in a circle If you if everything in your conclusions is coming from your initial assumptions You put everything in in the beginning. It's like that's where the rabbit got in the hat And so we don't learn anything about the outside world. It just was all in our head originally And that may sound compelling to you if you're thinking of physics and chemistry That you know if you had physicists arguing about something and they refuse to actually go Look at a microscope or go look at a telescope to settle the matter They would be ridiculous.  That's exactly how you would do it and notice We think it's very useful to teach geometry that people who build bridges and so on They need to have that as a background foundation and we can argue about Why is that and philosophers and mathematicians do argue about that stuff? Like if we were in a different type of universe Would it be a waste of time to study geometry or will we study non euclidean and blah blah blah But clearly in the real world right now It is undeniably true that we still teach geometry this way From axiomatic foundations logical deductions and that we are gaining something important about the real world to motivate that If like martians showed up There's a sense in which if they said to us Hey, we don't what this word bachelor. What is that? We're unfamiliar with that and they said, oh, it's an unmarried male There's a sense in which we would really just be giving them information about our conventions You see what I mean that it's not like they could go back to their home planet And share that information and they said, oh, thank goodness. Now, we know what bachelor means that explains everything Well, if they were watching tv shows that that might explain that one, right? But you get the point that there we would merely be giving them a definition It would just be kind of giving them trivia about us Whereas if they showed up and they didn't have the Pythagorean theorem Like if they're just mathematicians hadn't stumbled upon that in the centuries of martian existence to that point And one of our people taught it to them and then they went back to their home planet and taught it to all their You know little martian kids or whatever Then they really would have gained knowledge about reality You see you see that the distinction there and so by the same token If you taught them the proposition that Other things equal increasing the quantity of money Reduces the purchasing power of money or makes prices in general rise You have taught them something about reality Even though that's a non falsifiable proposition even if in reality the quantity of money goes way up And prices don't go way up that didn't just refute that proposition It's all other things aren't equal to demand a whole money went up for some reason All right, and that's so again, you see that there's you're telling something about reality by teaching economic science but the way you Learn those propositions and convey them to others is not The way you do things in science. It's not the scientific method the way you probably learned in school Where you know, you all you have a bunch of data you form a hypothesis you derive A falsifiable prediction from your hypothesis and then you go get new data and check it That you know, that's sort of that's not even really true a lot in the natural sciences But it's certainly not true. Mises would say the way economics should proceed Let me say one thing about this to really Because I think this point is is critical And this is one of the things where a lot of mainstream economists hit austrians on is this this point If you believe in free trade, how did you come to that conclusion? Was it because you were looking at regressions and you saw You know these this country had high tariff barriers that reduced them and then I looked at four quarters out And what was the t-test and so it was probably like you read Bastiat's Satire about the petition of the candle makers or you you know read some Thought experiment that David Friedman came up with and you just saw it and went oh, of course, right? And so What we do in terms of standard economic theory is things like that Where you just see it from a certain angle and it's obvious what the principle involved is and then yeah You got to have judgment to apply it in the real world But the principles themselves economic law is something you get through introspection Now having said all that Don't take away that mises was anti empirical He wasn't he and Hayek was founded a business a center to study business cycles, right? So that was clearly empirically motivated right so again I We stress this point and then sometimes people think we're saying don't ever look at statistics that that's not the issue The point is though the theory you have to go parse history and to look at the data You need to have a basic theory beforehand Okay, let me return now to specific things that Krugman said So it's interesting that he himself picked the criterion of Success in you know the predictions your model makes In order to you know judge the efficacy of a theory Because he has a couple of doozies. I'll give you a couple of them in this in this talk So the story here. Oops. Sorry about that. That's my computer. It looked fine. The growth was up there So this says during What was called the fiscal doomsday machine of the budget sequester? So if you remember if you're not familiar with us politics, there was A debate over the budget deal And of raising the debt ceiling and then the republicans slipped in this thing that was called a sequester That involved a combination of spending reductions and tax hikes in order to reduce the deficit And so this kicked in in early 2013 and krugman called it quote One of the worst policy decisions in u.s history, all right So he wasn't pulling any punches. He called it a fiscal doomsday machine. So as of april 2013 This is now to get your timeline right. So the congress is raising taxes cutting spending So those are you know austerity measures from the kanesian point of view But the fed at the time Was expanding again. It was more qe. All right, and so Krugman was saying we're going to get a good test now of kanesian versus market monetarist views So here you need to know the background the market monetarists. I'm curious. How many people know what that means okay, so The market monetarists they're based on Milton Friedman's Monetarism their modern day their their free market in general, but they're I would say not free market when it comes to they think the federal reserve has an important role to play in managing the money supply and in particular guys like scott sumner who's one of the leading market monetarists Says that the fed has been very tight since 2008 and so he says that's the problem That's what's been causing the slow growth. So The market monetarists were saying don't worry about the budget sequester Because the fed is going to inflate that will offset it. They'll maintain aggregate demand And Krugman was saying in april 2013 We're getting a good test of the kanesian versus market monetarist views And it's not looking good for them because as of that point Economic growth in 2013 was pretty sluggish Okay, so then what happened was the rest of 2013 actually turned out surprisingly well And let me just note something. I don't have it in terms of the slides But just to make sure you get the big picture. Do you guys how familiar are you with the fact that When obama came in The um His his team was led up by christina romer and they wanted to push through the uh stimulus package And they were ahead of this famous chart and predictions about the fact that If we do nothing unemployment is going to go up to a certain amount and that was supposed to be catastrophic And that's unacceptable if we have the obama stimulus package will limit the rise in unemployment So they passed the stimulus unemployment in in practice went up higher than they were warning would happen if they did nothing Right, so I want to get what happened. And so you would think Surely that's a feather in our cap as free market economists, right? And of course not the kanesians just said It's a good thing. We passed that obama stimulus because the economy was in worse shape than we realized Right, you don't want to get how how they dealt with that. Okay The opposite happened when it came to the sequester So leading up to when they were going to have these tax hikes And spending cuts so from a kanesian point of view, that's the last thing in the world You want to do when there's a weak economy, right because it reduces aggregate demand And so they were kanesian forecasts They were predicting what would happen with and without the budget sequester to get a sense of on the margin How big of a deal is this going to be and so they had unemployment and gdp forecasts saying If congress goes ahead and foolishly implements this sequester You know unemployment will do such and such gdp will do such and such if they don't You know if they avoid this insanity This will be the baseline and it was the mirror image where they did the sequester the thing the kanesians said don't do And the economy did better Then the kanesian forecast said would happen if they didn't do the sequester Okay, so it was like the flip the flip and there again They didn't talk about that too much because it wasn't like such a big people weren't calling them on it because it wasn't as prominent As the obama's stimulus package, but again there the the argument would have to be Uh, oh, thank goodness the economy was in a lot stronger shape so that when they hit us with this sequester We were able to weather the blow more than we previously realized All right, so again It's the exact way the world would look if the austrians were correct But the kanesians can always just say well, you know counterfactuals, you know, you can you can prove anything you want okay, so Back to this particular controversy with krugman He was again in the early 2013 when things looked bad for the economy was running victory laps saying oh This is a good test of our views versus the market monitorists And it's not looking good for them and i'm not paraphrasing he that he literally said it's not looking good You know he and then by 20 january 2014 The economy had turned around Outperforming what the people were forecasting And so at that point you can imagine some market monitorists were saying Hey, I think this show is that we were right that the fed offset the budget austerity, right? And that their their expect qe was able to offset and keep aggregate demand up there And krugman wrote a column with no sense of irony Saying and then you've got these market monitors somehow claiming that 2013 was a test Of these two views when clearly they should know no one country's experience can test two rival macro theories All right, so do you get what i'm saying? He was saying this is a good test and running victory laps when he thought he was going to win Then when he lost he said i can't believe these fools think this is a good test All right, i'm not i'm not you might think oh come on. You're probably exaggerating for no i'm not That's exactly the way it happened Okay, then the story gets even better So remember that was from april 2013 to 2014 Time passes people forget that krugman You know had been saying how bad 2013 was going to be as a as a demonstration that his view was right By the end of 2014 the economy was doing a lot better than people had thought and so at this point What do you think krugman said so you know what i've been wrong for a while Maybe i'm just going to stop and think about what i did in the corner That's not what he did instead. He's running victory laps Saying the obama boom shows these conservative critics of obama care are crazy They were warning us that obama care was going to cripple the economy because all these job losses They were wrong and yet these clowns continue to hold their outdated right wing views even though the data shows their forecasts were wrong So you see what he did there? So again, it's if the economy is bad It proves that they needed more stimulus just like krugman has been warning if the economy is good It proves that the critics of obama care were wrong just like krugman predicted You see how that works so it's heads canes wins tails hayek loses okay Let me spend a little bit and then i would do want to take some of your questions Let me just run through it would be dishonest of me to talk about this and not bring up the awkward fact In case you don't know I foolishly made a $500 bet. There's a sky david r. Henderson. He blogs an econ log Brian kaplan had made a bet with me about inflation because I was concerned about You know what bernanke was doing? I thought cpi inflation was going to be high Brian kaplan said you want to bet on it? I said okay david henderson also thought I was wrong And he got me to bet for $500 I lost that bet. All right and then I think brad dalong like put it on his calendar or something because right when it happened he blogged about it And so krugman and dalong were mentioning me by name and saying see these crazy Austrian ideologues. They lose a bet about inflation. They were totally wrong and yet they cling To their model. So I know this sounds so so for one thing You know, what did you learn? Did you guys you know this family guy clip? Do you guys know family guy? So this what happened here was they're at a baseball game and this kid catches the ball and uh Or sorry stewie has the ball and this kid had a bat and stewie says I say can I trade you my bat for your ball?  Okay, so what what did I learn about here is You want to be careful shooting your mouth off and doing things if you're known as a representative Austrian economics Because what was happening is I was making a bet with my own judgment Having written several things about why Austrian economics doesn't make formal predictions and so on all this stuff I just went through with you guys about its logical deductions And so but it was awkward. It was it was a pr Awkwardness, right? And so anyway, it was it was bad It never even occurred to me that if I lost that bet then people were going to say I'll see Austrian economics is wrong So that's what I'm saying was the the foolishness of it that I thought I was making a bet with David, but what's particularly Interesting about this. It's not like David Henderson was a Keynesian. He also was for austerity He had written studies for I think mercadis About the Canadian experience of cutting their budget and being pro austerity And so it was like two free market economists who were against Keynesianism made a bet with each other And one one and one lost and then Krugman saying see the free market guy lost so therefore So I was I've been trying to come up with an analogy for that, but nothing really does it justice So if you guys have one, let me know Just to round out this discussion What's pretty funny is Krugman also has made bad inflation predictions, right? So it's it might sound like I'm saying, okay Yeah, I got that one wrong but in the grand scheme, but no Krugman was also wrong about inflation himself The other way so he says here That there's an ongoing process of disinflation that could in the not too long Lead to outright deflation. Japan here we come. So he wrote that in 2010 Looking at this these particular measures of inflation. So you see It went up and then it plummeted Right, you know after the the the crisis and so Krugman in early 2010 Was saying these measures of price inflation might go negative Okay, so he was worrying about outright deflation at that point And this is how things turned out. So I'm using here the same Measures he was using at this point, right when that came down He was warning that it was going to keep going to go negative And just a few months after he wrote that you see how much they went up Okay, so it's not like he hit that one out of the park. Okay Then you say, okay So he was warning about deflation, but you were warning about inflation trying to scare people So yours was the more egregious error It would be convenient if paul krugman ever Hysterically warned about big inflation wouldn't it fortunately he did So this was a memo september 1982 paul krugman and larry summers when the council of economic advisors writing this to martin feldstein And they were warning at that time That I realized it's hard to read They were saying that it was really just rates decline and the economy recovers expect the real exchange rate and real commodity prices to return to historical levels Will add five percentage points to future increases in the consumer price index increase, right? So as of 1982 remember there had been the high inflation in the late 70s There was that recession inflation price inflation. I'm talking about rates came down And so krugman in 1982 september 82 is warning Once the economy gets through this bad recession and goes back to normal growth We think price inflation is going to rise five percentage points And so you can see that's the point at which they made that prediction All right, and so right then cpi was running about five percent It was like 4.9 at that point. So if it went up to five percentage points more that would be a 10 percent Cp cpi increase so ironically in 1982 krugman made just about literally the same prediction That I ended up making and it wasn't that paul krugman was an austrian in 1982 And then because of this humbling experience became a kanesian. It's that he was, you know, still a kanesian at that time Okay, let me uh, we just probably have time for a couple more a couple questions just to Round out this discussion. Any any questions? Yeah Yeah, I think so the question is do other people notice the apparent Backtracking and flip-flopping. I don't know because it's to catch that stuff I mean he is very precise and so like I said, no one thing that he writes Is all that controversial like he makes a bunch of assumptions and spins out the the thing So you would kind of have to really be a religious reader of krugman and have a really good memory And so I'm blessed with having a good memory and I'm cursed with that. I'm a religious reader of paul krugman So it The thing that people dislike about krugman is he makes it so personal like he literally if you guys don't know I mean the part of the reason people like the podcast I go So conferences around the world people come up to me and the first thing they say is yeah, we hate krugman, too Right. It is amazing. He's like the leading anti-export of the united states Um, and and so that's the thing that he he literally calls his critics naves and fools Right that if he has a column titled naves and fools, right saying that they're you know, they're evil either evil or Foolish Do you have time for me one more? Yep Okay, so yeah real quickly. I know we're out of time So the question is why couldn't the fed just indefinitely keep interest rates low? I think they could so long as conventional measures of price inflation don't Blow up like that. That's really the thing that would ultimately make them in a typical boom bus cycle You know, there's easy money easy money low artificially low interest rates Usually the thing that makes the Fed or the or the commercial banks back off that is they see rising measures of consumer price inflation So this it hasn't happened this time and there's various reasons for why that might not be Having said all that even a lot of I think Fed officials they know that this this is not sustainable and they're coming up with You know trying to explain saying well look at asset prices and so it's ironic I think a lot of Fed officials are halfway decent economists And they know that what we did yet was necessary to get through that crisis in their minds But we can't just keep doing this forever even if the standard metric reuse like unemployment and Price inflation are not signaling. You got to jack up rates right now. I think they realize we kind of have to ease back and the last thing I'll say on that is Janet Yellen so far just don't be thinking. Oh, yeah, Janet Yellen. Just crazy money printer She oversaw what was called the taper and since uh, like October 2014 the fed's balance sheet has been roughly stable They just been rolling over assets as they mature and holding a constant balance sheet So in terms of high level like what's called the monetary base The Fed actually has been holding pat for like a year and a half at this point All right, so just make sure you and you can look at like measures of the dollar the dollar strengthened sharply against other currencies In that period so just it's more a new one So if you want to talk about crazy inflation is yeah, that's Bernanke But Bernanke and Yellen have played different roles in this. Okay. Thanks everybody


Brandon Epstein asks does Dan Whitmer think he's cooler than me because he has to do the thing tattoos, and I have zero Welcome back welcome back to episode number 11 11 say dude one one ESPN the oncet not the Ocho, but the oncet uh-huh Dude, how's the beach be just great and just came back from a few days in Santa Marta The coast of Columbia and things got wild things are weird. I clean my cleared my mind Yeah, and I'm ready a lot of reading did a lot of reading did a lot of like just thinking Meditating hiking, and I'm ready to rock and roll zendu fitness. Those are all various and dude things bro I'll see my zen dude on just a reminder if you want these questions answered do not comment in the section in the YouTube section Join our free for a challenge, which is linked up below and write these questions in the Facebook group because I Post every week every Sunday, and I say hey ask your questions, and then everyone comments on that post that's how you get your questions Answered and also I think Dan you're making it official The stops you have at least a few of the stops along the way when you go to the United States So should we link those events up? Yes? Yes first one is May 31st in Philadelphia We will be having a jump rope meet-up at the steps of the Philadelphia Art Museum near the Rocky statue You know the famous Rocky statue in Philadelphia, so we're doing that That's at 5 30 and then we have one that's next that following Saturday June the 3rd New York City 11 a.m. East River Park Manhattan in the Lower East Side not East River State Park Which is in Brooklyn near Williamsburg East River Park on the Lower East Side of Manhattan Boston DC and Baltimore are coming So you'll see those invites very soon for anyone who's in those cities, but you should totally come It'll be fun. Um any other announcements before we get into the questions at Costa Rica. You're not going to Costa Rica We have a solid group already signed up and going to Costa Rica Yeah, and we would recommend that you guys join us because it is gonna be you are gonna be able to learn how to Transform both mentally and physically but most importantly you're gonna do it in a fun way while eating awesome food and getting to hang out with us Every dude single hour of the day We're not sleeping in bed with you, but we'll be in the general vicinity or our way Question number one Tom Marshall. What's up, dude? I think this is a new question asker. I haven't seen him What's up Tom guys? How important or not is a rest day? I do 30 minutes rope and body workout on 20 kilometers ride every day. That's a lot of work I feel good. I tried to have a rest day at the weekend, but I couldn't do it I had to do the thing. I know how that feels yo Tom You just said it yourself, man You feel good and that's what we talk about like some people can only work out like two days a week when they're first getting Started because their body just gets destroyed Sounds like you built your body up to be able to go every day and if you feel good then keep doing the thing man, dude Mono Mono asks Is it better to do hit workouts plus weights together in one workout session? I used to be at the gym for two hours doing both Three times a week, but recently I tried to just focus on one. I saw improvement. My focus is building muscle very nice my friend real fast Dude, it really it really doesn't matter. It's what it's whatever your preference is for example It is beneficial to do hit workouts and your weights together However, not if you're getting so tired during your hit workouts Actually now I'm kind of answering my own question. My recommendation would be to do them separately and here's why if you're doing weights You should go a hundred ten percent intensity on focusing on building muscle and Lifting properly and if you're fatigued because you did a hit workout before that Then that's not really going to benefit you a whole lot for building muscle On the same on the opposite side if you're doing a hit workout We want you going a hundred ten percent on the hit workout and getting super tired and getting a lot of the cardiovascular Benefits and fat burning benefits from that. So actually do my recommendation would be to split them up Maybe do three weights per week and two to three jump rope workouts per week your second question Mono Brandon love the tattoo man. Does it mean something to you? Yeah, yeah means a lot to me. Isn't my gorilla here Oh, no, well you guys can see this doesn't have a name. Yeah, you know mazes and do gorilla I'm a little zen do gorilla. No, man. This is me. This is me. I feel like humans are very primal and Because we're so primal we've been hardwired because we used to be these guys, you know, because I believe in evolution It's true But I believe that we have a lot of like fight-or-flight Responses like ingrained into our DNA just like gorillas do and so this is a peaceful gorilla Reminds me that like whenever I like start to get too excited or too anxious or like just too overwhelmed by something I can just debrief breathe deeply like my gorilla here chill find my zen chill my inner zen dude and Relax also. This is just the beginning.  He's kind of built into a mountain with some trees I think one day I'm gonna have my little gorillas here. You know if I have kids I'm gonna build the gorillas around here and and wife. He probably gonna get herself I don't know if that'd be that nice to make her a gorilla, but I'm not make her You can make her like this a super sexy gorilla dude sexy gorilla for Saturday Anyhow, I'm thinking of maybe building my family around the whole forum So this is the first step is me the priest the peaceful gorilla nice nice Hey, Len Helen Helen. Hey, I don't know I have a problem that whenever I stop working out Even if it's only for like a week because of stress at school or something I tend to immediately put on weight any ideas Or why I eat pretty healthy as I love fruit and vegetables and make like 99% of my food using whole foods It's just really annoying because I constantly feel like I have to start over so the big question here is How do I stop the feeling of wanting to start over and needing to hmm and also? How do I just make sure that I don't gain excess weight? So I'd start there by saying you need to start counting your calories and macronutrients because you said I you know I eat pretty healthy fruit and vegetables and 99% of my food I made for myself Not once in that sentence did you mention the fact that you're counting the amount of calories and macronutrients rating and hitting those numbers? So that is me ultimately the thing that makes sure that you don't gain weight when you don't exercise the second part of that How do you stay consistent with your workouts? You just have to get back to that why and you just have to do the thing you have to know Why you want to do it why it's important and once you remember what that why is Do the thing and the only other thing I grew everything Brandon said and the one thing I want to add about mindset is there's a lot of people who who They actually trick themselves into thinking that they've ruined their own progress for example Someone will go out and like eat a piece of cake the night before and then they'll look in the mirror the next day And they'll be like I'm like goodness. I gained like 10 pounds and it's totally not true We have to get rid of this mindset that enjoying ourselves every now and then or Or because of like stress or something like makes you anxious that you're gonna gain a bunch of weight like Chances are you might not have gained any weight and now I'm not I'm not saying that I don't know your situation exactly But we shouldn't always think of like I had a tough week and I couldn't work out So I totally ruined my progress you need to change your mindset around starting over don't start Stop and then think about starting over again. There is no start and stop in fitness There is no end in fitness. You have to make this part of your lifestyle So don't get discouraged when you trip up for a few days. Just keep going Matthew. Hi. Hey coach Coach Matthew aside from ZDF. What fills you with pride? Mmm. What fills me with pride is Just being a good person Yeah, just trying to do my best as long as I know I'm doing my best. I feel a lot of pride matter My would be making art. I love I'm talking about like making videos and taking like videos and photos So not just like the jump rope videos that you guys see But some of the vlog videos we did and like taking photos like I have become totally obsessed with the camera and I'm proud of that. I'm proud of that. And that's what I want to continue doing with my life. Lila What is the craziest thing you've ever done and would you do it again? Crazy I got one. You got one? You go first. I can't think of one. Got it. Check it out. So I moved to New York City with $12 and 35 cents in my bank account 50 grand in student debt And then I got a job for like four months and then quit that job with no money And I was living on this girl's couch in Manhattan actually for a few weeks. So would I do that again? Yeah, absolutely. I would do that again Moving to New York with zero money and zero plan was the best thing that I ever did in my life And I wouldn't be sitting here if I did not make that crazy decision Ah, I guess I'll just copy you my craziest thing is I moved to Medellin, Colombia With no money and no idea what I was gonna do. Oh Shay Shay neary my man. What's up Wu Tang clan or NWA? Hmm, I know For me do I'm gonna go NWA just cuz I listen to a lot more of the music like Wu Tang clan I love them, but I just only listen to a few other songs. Dude. We're the same guy person like okay, Wu Tang clan I wanted to say Wu Tang clan because like it's cool Yeah, it's cool. Yeah, one of my favorite rappers is Method Man and also Old Dirty Bastard rest in peace He was an OG but and plus I'm from the East Coast But I'm gonna agree with Brandon NWA because I know more of their songs and also I still follow Some of the artists the ones who are still alive from NWA, so I still I would say that more of yeah Like NWA more Leanne asks some tips on different strategies or methods to quickly decrease your stress level When you are in a restricted environment like at work or you have limited ability to leave the situation That is that's a really good question. That's a great question Yeah, I would just start by meditating a number of different ways and our dance play gonna say something similar You can either to start by taking deep breaths and counting your breaths Or you can download at like at the Wim Hop method It takes like five minutes or less to do and it will completely change the way that you're feeling in that moment Yeah, I would say breathing for me like when I get a little overwhelmed I go deep breaths in from the nose out from the mouth Repeat to five and just do that again very similar to the breath that you take for jumping rope actually Chris asks asks How can I best build up the chest muscles? What exercise or combo of exercises can I do each day to make a difference? How many push-ups today? Cheers dudes Much love Chris. I'm psyched to meet you in New York my friend. Good.  Yeah, do the strong list five by five method? I think that's Google strong lifts five times five Just Google that and also I would just add to that I do think that you can build like I agree with Brandon like the easiest way to build muscle Especially in the chest is you have to lift weights you have to do resistance training body weight stuff can Work to build muscle although not as much. So my thought is just do The easier route which is weightlifting but if you're into body weight stuff and you want to build muscle And at the same time like challenge yourself progressive overloading for body weight could be very helpful And what I mean by that let's just for rough example Do 10 one week every day and then 20 the next week every day and then you keep moving out from there Bob asks what advice can you give me to stop getting bored while jumping rope? I already listened to dope music for brand spotify playlist and I try to mix it up a bit with tricks But I'm still bored out of my out of your mind All right, Bob. I'm offended you need to go harder man Because if you're going as hard as you can with the intensity you can't be bored because all you're thinking about Is that present moment? Bob, Bob, Bob every spin of the rope So if you're getting bored and tells me that you're not going hard enough because you can think about being bored So Bob go harder man. Also, bro. Just do the thing man Like some days I don't have as fun as other days working out But it doesn't mean that I don't still go just as hard like Forget being you know, just like with my parents my parents when I when I was a kid I loved my parents for doing this I would say I'm bored and they would look at me like what do you mean you're bored go outside and do something then Like bored being bored is not a thing Brandon F's team asks Does Dan Whitmer think he's cooler than me because he has to do the thing tattoos and I have zero Bro Before you get your first Adam asks. Hi dudes. Hi Adam. I've noticed one wrist seems to do more of the work while spinning the rope Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah does this matter? And if so, how can I fix it? Thanks and greetings from England dudes psych to see you in England, man Adam, I think this is a pretty common thing and what you need to do is just focus on using the momentum of the rope Instead of using your wrist as much to move it And so when you're doing like anything which is a regular bounce or you know feet side to side Basically when your arms are out to the side I'll focus on trying to use the momentum of the rope and using both of your wrists to do that instead of like Deliberately trying to move the rope forward with one wrist to the other I would just add to that you actually do want to use all of your wrist for it Well, I think what branch trying to say is you don't want to use your whole arm Like if there's too much you want to have a lot of wrist action But because and you want to keep most of the movement with your forearm and your wrist and use your Elbow here as like a socket to turn the rope But you don't want to be out here and also I think what you're talking about is an irregularity that I also have with jumping because my biceps like are Shaped differently. So one arm Sticks further out like this and it looks like like I'm not symmetrical when I jump rope my take on that dude is I'm sure I I could probably fix it Although I don't it doesn't really hinder my ability to jump rope.  My dude, I'm a diehard nick fan. So I'm completely Just out of the loop. What's going on the playoffs because the nicks just bad this year We got deros. We got noa. We had mellow. We pour zingus. We had a team put together that could potentially have some potential We had a ton of injuries. No team chemistry. I know i'm not answering your question but I'm just kind of venting here and so I don't care what goes on the nba because the nicks are dog and um, yeah I'm going for the calves like Call me a bandwagoner or not. I am a little bit of a bandwagoner for the team But lebron since he came in the league has always been my favorite player when he played for the heat I root for the heat when he played went back to the calves. I root for the calves I think what that man has done for that team and what he does in basketball and like being such a stand-up dude, especially Especially when the whole world wants you to fail like when he like he literally has been the best his whole life The man just he kicks ass in life He rocks it at basketball go-kaps and we'd like to take a moment out and shout out our sponsors I'm gonna finish podcast and ask his end to show you how to ask his end each show um Number one You guys may may know this we jump rope on tomorrow And this is a jump rope we use every day because it's the best jump rope we've ever found It's called the cross rope this specifically is the agility rope Yeah, it's linked in the description below So if you want to use the rope that we use 10 percent off 10 percent off discount check them out It's the best ropes on the market. Then we have athletic greens, which is the nutritional company that we rep We rep them for a few reasons one They're the best at most of the the supplements that they put out there For example, the green juice is the best of the best that we have found Secondly because just this last sundae I'm so tight with the we're so tight with the owner that I went on a walk with them So it's a company that we trust that's really the big reason why we we work with those. Yeah So we grill and we're like, yo man, like why is this the best and then he's like You guys need to talk about this this and this because no one else is doing this and we're like, all right Well, it tastes great and we know there's a lot of nutrients in it So we're gonna keep repping it and we don't say as much of like the awesome things are in it because it really is higher quality than like anything out there But We need to do a better job on that. You guys well, and if you go to the website though, you'll see all the benefits They're there. They're there.  Really? Oh, leo man, dude. I know that was gonna. I was thinking I was like but Ah, damn it. Okay. Honestly the first one that popped into my head was Johnny Depp. I love Johnny Depp's like weird personality like Johnny Depp and fear and loathing one of my favorite movies Johnny Depp and blow one of my favorite movies I think though if I find some time to sit down and think about this I would come up with someone else to be totally honest, but Johnny was the first one What's up, man, how often do you guys jump rope and smack the rope on your back? I managed to leave whip marks on my back at least every two days that ish hurts. I know But it's fine. Do the thing. This is like my favorite comment of all day Look how like filled with energy. This is so much energy my man my dude Austin Man, I whip myself probably I don't know maybe almost every day now. Maybe maybe like Four out of seven days a week. I whip myself pretty good when I was first getting started I whip myself multiple times every single time I worked out and I just got better and so that happened last But I always try to push myself and so the whips keep on coming In the back probably four to five times a week like four to five days guys You have to understand something like Brendan and I mess up and whip ourselves all the time Like it's not something necessarily goes away, especially when you're practicing and learning new tricks when you're going hard into pain Hard in the pain Raul asks will you guys ever host a contest for a transformation? Oh my dude, yo, we are constantly giving out jump ropes and other prizes of people who post their transformations on Instagram and hashtag zen do fitness and tag us at zen do fitness and also hashtag do the thing So if you have a transformation that you want to share with us Do those two hashtags tag us and we check those out all the time and we'll reach out to you and give you some love Maybe even give you a feature And just a lesson for all the other people out there who just email us or write us messages on youtube and just say Hey, can I have a jump rope? That's how you get one you got to add value you got to add value to the world Look, we're gonna get there's a valuable lesson to learn right here.  I lost 70 pounds now. I'm shredded thanks to Jumping rope. We'll be like what kind of rope do you want? Which one do you do a heavy rope a light rope both? I don't care. Here you go. In addition I was going to talk to you about this later. We talked about this last week I was thinking About doing a little putting together a little may beach body transformation contest dog. Y'all man That's a great idea. So let's get a look out. Yeah I don't mind that like it's cheesy to do like the summer stuff like getting for the beach like come on Beach is what we're here to do. Amar asks what got you guys interested in jump rope Uh dan got me interested in jump rope and brennan this other guy who's not sitting here He got me interested in jumping rope when I lived in new york visited in boston Check out our jump rope transformation story. I tell a whole thing there. It's linked up. Yeah, or it's in a card Yeah, go to it mob mob Rob What's your favorite beer? I went to high school in eugene orgin which has like the most so lucky micro breweries purse capita in in high school Did it have that though? Was it like that one? Oh, yeah, it was it was been on the come up now They have the most that they've ever had but They've been on the come ups. Um So actually let me think about in high school today anyhow There is a lot of good be there. So i'm gonna have to say The uh Red ale from ninkasi is my favorite. Nice dude. That's specific I was thinking about I was trying to get specific But then I realized like there's one beer that whenever it shows up. I drink it sierra nevada sierra nevada is always my go-to beer because I love ipa's the most and that's just like the easiest It just always shows up so I always drink it Emily asks do you have any tips for keeping a positive outlook when there's so much tragedy And hate in the world girl. I hear you. Oh Emily. Yes There is a lot of shit going on in the world But what you need to pay attention to is the fact that this is the most safe and peaceful time in human history Not once before in the history of humankind have we had less war less poverty less illiteracy Less famine this is the best time to ever be a human So I try to focus on that and in addition I try to just bring as much good as I can personally in the world as I can because I know if I'm busy focusing All my energy on Sucks i'm not gonna be able to help the people that are right in front of me dude.  I was already in a deficit My dude So what you're gonna want to do now is go back to the calculator again that we have we'll link it again below And you want to change your activity to highly active It's not already because if you're boxing you're probably working really hard burning a ton of calories So even if you want to be in the deficit you need to make sure that you're eating for calorie deficit Incorporating the fact that you're doing a ton of exercise You Remy asks what do you guys think about fish oil? I think artificial complexity my dude Here fish oil is one of those things that when I was what do you mean by artificial complexity? What I mean by artificial complexity is fish oil is one of those things that people try to focus On their energy on making sure they take it along with like the right multivitamin Etc etc when in reality it's not actually affecting your overall health that much because here's the thing There's been some research looking at fish oil on how it affects like your body composition And everything I've seen because I had a research as a bunch when I was in college because I study excess physiology Was that there was no positive or negative? There wasn't a significant effect on the body by taking fish oil when we're looking at how it affects your body composition Now is it good to take healthy oils? Absolutely, but you can get those by eating fish or coconut oil Olive oil just in your diet normally Alfan asks how many hours a day do you recommend exercise jump rope go to the gym etc And do you think it's good? Do you think it's fine to jump rope and then go to the gym? Um for hours a day again This is all dependent on your body if you're just asking like blanket How much like would we recommend as zen dudes? We say 30 to 45 minutes per day of intense Exercise doesn't have to be super intense every day, but three to four times a week intense And if you're doing it intensely enough, you don't need to be working out for hours Okay, you only need to be working out for 45 minutes. Maybe an hour tops Having said that I like to do a lot of different activities to make sure our fitness regimen is fun and always challenging and changing So one day I might like for example this weekend I jumped rope then I did hip-hop dancing outside and then I walked like 10 miles So all that coming together was like four hours, but it wasn't you know, I don't do that every single day It was just more to have fun So listen to your body and know how much is too much And how much you still is not enough and how and you can push yourself to that to that limit Jail asks where can we get the do the things shirts? And I'm super excited about the app us too When is it coming out? Yeah, we got dude shirts and we got dudette shirts. We got tank tops for girls and guys We'll link them down in the description below. We have a store Which most people don't know about we can go buy zen dude fitness apparel So we'll link it below The app should be coming out early this summer We don't have an exact date But we're going to be looking for beta testers and we'll reach out to you guys when we're ready for that Super stoked on the app guys It's going to make all the workouts you're doing super awesome And we can't wait to deliver it to you. Just stay patient. It's coming Um, dude, I think that's that's it Dude, another great app around a great app. You just got off a plane and we just shot this episode Yeah, I know I know ladies and gentlemen guys I cannot say enough how much brand I want to thank you for being here for being a part of this community For all the energy that you put into the posts We've seen a lot more for example in our dojo group if you haven't checked that out check that out It's linked up below, but in our dojo group guys people are posting videos. They're helping people with their form They're helping people lose weight. They're helping people with food recommendations There's a lot of positive energy flying around this end of fitness community right now And it's it's you guys and gals that we have to thank for it. So thank you. We'll see you on next week's Episode Brandon. Do you have anything closing statements? I love you guys So much. Love you guys too. So much


Look, it's no secret in my channel that I cover a lot of leaks and rumors and all of that stuff. In fact, you could argue it's sort of a core principle at my channel, where we cover a lot of Nintendo news, and as we lead up to big game releases, we really get really hyped. I mean, I'll give you an example. There's a brand new trailer that just dropped for Princess Peach Showtime, and man, it looks pretty solid. It might not be everyone's cup of tea, and maybe my only concern is that I worry it's just sort of a mini-game collection being touted as something more than that. I guess we'll just have to wait and see until the game comes out to understand it, but I do like the show mechanics and the whole concept behind the game anyways. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens with that one. But because Nintendo dropped this trailer today, a lot of people are worrying that there won't be a Nintendo Direct, which I find interesting because, look, this game coming out in two months. They weren't just going to wait for a Nintendo Direct to start marketing a game that comes out in two months, especially when, alongside this game, they wanted to also mention that, hey, we're dropping some brand new Joy-Con colors that are Princess Peach-themed, aka their pink. And you're seeing them next to Roses because they're coming out next month, you know, right around Valentine's Day, which yeah, that's going to be like a really cool thing for people that have been wanting these pink Joy-Cons for a long time. So you combine this marketing plan together and you can sort of understand that, hey, this is a sort of game that Bobby doesn't need a Nintendo Direct. The Direct's going to have to wow people in its own way. Well, today we have a potential leak. Again, we got to call this more like a rumor for the next Nintendo Direct, just because of where it comes from. And we're not talking about the zippos of the world or anything crazy. We're going to 4chan. And I know what you're going to say. You might be clicking off the video already. I just want to note that there is a reason for this particular thing to be covered. 4chan does have a slew of legitimate leaks. We actually got some legit Pokémon DLC leaks last year from 4chan. And obviously for covering a 4chan thing, which is not normal on our channel, we don't cover it often. It's because there's a specific reason. And in this case, this particular user on 4chan correctly leaked literal information on Princess Peach Showtime that wasn't known ahead of time. So we're going to go to a summary post by PCFocus over on X because it's just easier to sift through, although I did dig through the 4chan post, the original one, and went through the entire archive to find everything. We'll dig through that bit just to show you guys. But anyways, let's get into what these leaks are and not waste any more of your time. So here we go. Here's what PCFocus says. A 4chan user who correctly leaked the Cowgirl in Ninja segments in Princess Peach Showtime has other leaks for the upcoming Nintendo Direct and some of this is so exciting. So the supposed new games are, and again, rumor, rumor, rumor. Fire Emblem 4 Remake, releasing in May. Okay, that's somewhat believable. There's been a rumor for that for a while. Donkey Kong Country is getting a new game for its 30th anniversary. Alright, interesting. There's been a rumor Donkey Kong game for a while. Metroid Prime 2 Remastered. Don't know if it's gonna be Shadow Drop, but gonna be there. Grezzo Remake. Oh, this gets me excited. A Grezzo Remake of the Zelda Oracle games. Hey, we are sort of due for another Grezzo Zelda something. So that could be a thing. That feel good game getting localized. Famicom Detective Club returning as Nintendo Detective Club. It's gonna be about five high school girls who must solve vicious crimes that they are personally involved with. Now, this is a pretty crazy rumor. We're just gonna click through on a few things here to show you, like, this gave me a red flag when I first clicked it because, one, this isn't 4chan that I linked to. And Emily Rogers is actually a known insider who retired a long time ago. This person's impersonating them, but this is the actual post over on 4chan. This is actually 4chan. And when you dig through all of this, you can find all of those given leaks from the original posters. So I do find this to be quite fascinating. We'll link to all of that stuff down below so you can follow the breadcrumb trail yourself and re-verify everything the same way I did. Now, again, this is a rumor and it's not meant to be believed, but let's entertain it for a moment. Let's give it some thoughts because I think this is quite fascinating. For starters, let's just start with a Fire Emblem remake. Look, we get new Fire Emblem games or Fire Emblem remakes quite frequently. So it's a very safe and believable rumor. It coming in May could make some sense. What's interesting is that this isn't a complete direct lineup, right? Like, there's got to be stuff missing in here. Where's Luigi's Mansion 2? HG, where's Thousand-Year Door? So I don't think this is like the complete lineup. This is just maybe the new stuff that's going to get announced. I find it interesting, like, what would be the game that they would end it with if this aren't announced? Let's say there's no Metroid Prime 4 or anything. If these are the brand new games in the show, then I just, I don't know what else to really think here. Could it be? Could it be that Zelda, the Oracle games, are going to be the closer? Could it be the new Donkey Kong game that's the closer? Look, this stuff just gets me excited for the direct one because we get to talk about new game possibilities, but also just because it's just a lot of fun. It's a lot of fun. Let's just be honest. This is a fun thing to think about. Now look, when it comes to the Oracle games, they're some of my favorite handheld Zelda games ever, and the idea of bringing them back is really cool. They're all, there's like infinite new content possibilities to get to. The Oracle games are originally supposed to be a trilogy of games. Didn't really happen. There is a combined ending. How they handle that, I don't know. It's going to be pretty interesting. And then when you think about other things out there, like, look, the Famicom Detective Club thing is a very strange thing. Basically, Nintendo brought back Famicom Detective Club already and already re-released it on Switch, which was pretty interesting just for the history of Nintendo IP, but saying that there's going to be a new game in it, and now they're just going to call it Nintendo Detective Club, that makes a lot of sense because now you're not tying the name of the franchise to a specific system. But I kind of find it interesting that Nintendo thought Famicom Detective Club got enough ground game sales wise to even make this, probably a smaller team. Maybe there's just a lot of passion internally at Nintendo for this IP and that's why it came back in the first place. So, I don't know. That's kind of interesting. Metroid Prime 2 remastered dropping, I find to be quite interesting. Maybe a shadow drop the way Metroid Prime remaster was. This could set up for Metroid Prime 3 remaster to be dropped this summer potentially, hopefully with showing off Metroid Prime 4. They could be holding Metroid Prime 4 back, by the way, for the Nintendo Switch 2. I think one thing that's interesting about this is if these leaks are true, if this stuff is true, you know, we gotta go in this just assuming it's not true. But, if they are true, then this would be a bit of a lighter direct in general, which I think is okay and maybe just a big sign that, hey, Nintendo's got something cooking, they're just waiting for Switch 2 because what are the big announcements here? Another remake of Fire Emblem? Another remake of Zelda games? So, the only new game is what? Nintendo Detective Club and a new Donkey Kong? I mean, those are exciting announcements, don't get me wrong and I'm sure a lot of you guys are excited for them, but those aren't big games, right? Those aren't system selling games and I kind of would fall in the range of what Nintendo's doing right now. A lot of their smaller mid-tier games coming out, a lot of ports, remakes and remasters and honestly, it kind of just lines up with the fact that Nintendo likely has a new system coming out. Look, I kind of feel like if there was going to be a big game coming this year besides Pokemon Force Switch, this is the direct it would get announced in. It's not getting announced, at least based on these rumors. Now, these are just rumors, these are not facts. Who knows? Nintendo could bring a direct next month and just nail us with all the goods. Also, this likely isn't a complete list of games. If it is a complete list, then, you know, a complete list of the Nintendo published games anyways, there'll be third parties and indie games, then yeah, okay, it's going to be a bit light. They could be ending the direct, you know, as an example with a Xbox port, maybe Hi-Fi Rush they think is a big deal. So they could throw that in there. But again, that's a third party, you know, offering from a first party company. So I don't know. I'm just going to sit here and wait and see what's up with this. You guys let me know if you even think this is a good list. Is this good enough to tie this over until Switch 2? Because you got to remember if this is the last direct for Nintendo Switch before Switch 2 was announced, is this just enough content for us to be satisfied?  I feel like there's a decent mix here. Combine that with Thousand Year Door and stuff where maybe Nintendo is just going to kind of float. And you know what? That's okay. Maybe they're not going to announce Switch 2 till the summer.  All I know is this screams were holding back. I don't know. It's just a rumor. Let me know what you think about this down in the comments below. Not meant to be taken super seriously, but really fun to talk about. We'll catch you guys in the next video.


This paper presents the results of an experimental pilot study conducted within the PROCON project led by Margherita Gleba at Cambridge, and aimed at evaluating what can we learn from textile tools that have been found in survey research rather than studies in open contexts, rather than in excavated closest contexts. So the study was aimed at investigating the opportunity but also the challenges of this particular type of data. The study was initially focused on Central Italy thanks to the collaboration of many scholars who have conducted research studies in the area, and then it was extended to a comparison with Greece, then to the collaboration of Emery Farinetti. Firstly we are going to discuss the methodological issues which are related to the reliability of the survey data, their dating, their representativeness, and the problem of well-known post-depositional factors, and we are going to see our case studies in Central Italy and Greece, and we are going to draw some preliminary conclusions. Finally we are going to twilight some potential further work. One of the first problems when studying textile tool from survey data, one of the main problems is the reliability itself. How can we relate textile tool to a specific function or activity if we lack the precise information of a context, and also how can we date them and relate them to a specific phase of the site that often is multi-phase by nature? In addition, often textile tool from survey data are not very huge in number, so how can they reveal or indicate the partners and trend? And finally there is the obvious problem of post-depositional biases. Included in the hyperbole project that has been recently subject to a re-evaluation by the British School of Rome, the La Ciumveggio project, the Forma Italia project led by Professor Carandina, Professor Carolfa, the Ciumveggio project led by Peter Altman and his team from Rollingen. And also the Malacredi survey and we also have the Rieti survey and the Tuscania project. In the landscape slide you see some of the fields around the side of Cusco Mellio, which is a small proto-urban settlement to the north-east of Rome that later became the suburbia of Rome, in which I conducted my fieldwork. Next slide. These slides show the visibility of data according to the different survey projects which were conducted in different times and sometimes with slightly different methodologies. However, we can see that a common partner is revealed in which the long waits are certainly the most visible, followed by a spindle wall and finally by generic test tools. So even if we have to assume differences, we can still see some common underlying generalities between the different projects. How data have been analyzed? The first step of the work is the dating of the textile tool. Primarily this has been made on the basis of typological analysis, either on the field or in the lab or from publication. And this is obviously based on the shape of the object, the type of clay, the inclusions, the presence or not of inscriptions and decorations. But when the typological dating was to general not possible or not available, we devised a new way of dating the tool, which is by context. Now this is a slightly difficult because as we said in the survey, we are dealing with open contests. However, sometimes it was possible to pin down the dating of the tool by context, one or two phases. And we decided that this was reliable enough. In fact, as we will see later, the results of the analysis and their internal consistency made us realize that this initial assumption was a rather reasonable and acceptable assumption. This slide shows some types of textile tools found in the region through time from the dark impasto, impasto bruno, bronze age and iron age spin the war and spools and sometimes long wait as well to the more common long wait of impasto pale impasto, of impasto chiaro of the archaic period or some more spin the war of impasto bruno to the republican and imperial Roman period long wait again in a cream or a very pale clay. Sometimes these tools can also have decoration or inscriptions in particular has been highlighted by Lin Fox for Southern Etruria, how in the archaic period, especially long waits can have signs indicating women and family connections in the territory or in the Roman period we can have the name of the pursuers of the long waits. Most data presented in this paper in relation to the Greek case study come from the Beotia survey conducted in Greece since the 1978. One important point to bear in mind in relation to Greek material and survey but it also partially affect Italian material is that sometimes textile tool have been used as a discriminator a ski marker to distinguish between permanent rural settlement and non-permanent rural settlement belonging to city dwellers. So in a way one has to be very careful to not fall in a sort of circular argument. Another example where textile tools have been used as indicator of sedentary activities is the case of the agro pastoral sites. These slides show an example from an excavation dated to the 4th to the 2nd century but the same concept can be applied to survey data. These people used perishable material to build like wood or wallet and doubt walls on stone foundation. So the presence of textile tool is an important indicator to identify only around sites and not just seasonal activities. So in a way this has helped made these people less invisible. Has per the distribution of type of textile tool also in the Greek case study long weights are the most common followed by spindle rule and by weights. It also has to be considered that sometimes some type of weights are similar in textile activity and also in fishing activities. As per the chronological attribution also in the Greek case studies the shape and decoration of the textile tool is an indicator and also contextual information can be helpful even if as we said we are talking about open sites but sometimes in the end also the type of fabric is the major chronological indicator. As per the distribution of the presence of textile tool according to primary or rural site increase the textile activity seems to be very much an indicator of domestic activity and linked to urban sites but we also have to consider that the quantity of material is greatly affected by the total amount of finds from the site and also the the biography the development of the of the settlement. This slide again comparing the the four different urban contexts and the presence of textile tools in the different time archaic and classical Hellenistic and then Hellenistic Roman and late Roman shows out the in a way the distribution of textile tool follows the general development of the city. So some final thoughts on the Greek case study. We have to bear in mind that sometimes textile tools have been a key element in the identification of domestic activity for the definition of the function of the site itself. Therefore the subsequent analysis by context might be misleading. As in the Italian case study looms wait are generally much more visible and also it would be important to consider the textile tool in relation to the total number of of material found at the site and the the chronicle biography of the cities. To compare the Italian and the Greek case studies we can see that in both region loom waits seem to be much more visible. In both cases the presence of textile tools seem to be affected by the general trend in settlement distribution or the site the chronicle biography. Textile tool can be seen both as an indicator of domestic and or productive activity and it's not always easy to distinguish between the two. Now withstanding the great limitation however the the survey has the potential to provide complementary data and interpretation to those given by excavation but probably we have to on the basis of this experiment we have to elaborate far more tailored methodological tools up to target this particular type of evidence.


Chautauqua is a special place with keen, insightful people. This summer we've learned how everyone deeply cares about our amphitheater. We've seen a remarkable panel of six independent historic architects and preservationists. Wisely engaged by Chautauqua leadership, Kraft a detailed report concluding with six major recommendations for saving and improving the EM, including involve and experience historic preservation architect to develop a rehabilitation plan, explore programming options and work with the structural engineer who recently found that the AMP is safe to develop a plan for strengthening and stabilizing the existing roof structure for years to come. There are only a few days left in the 2015 season and not a lot of time for trustees and the community to absorb and evaluate the implications of this new information. Consequently a broad-based coalition of Chautauquins now respectfully request that the Board of Trustees take the time necessary to fully explore the insights and options these new reports offer us. By pausing to take this important step future generations no doubt we'll look back and thank Chautauqua's trustees for their due diligence and for uniting the community. Now please contact the trustees at trustees at ciweb.org and tell them please explore the preservation options for the AMP as outlined in the advisory panel report. Thank you.