The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. If my voice is cracking a little bit and my tears and my eyes are tearing up, there's a good reason for it. We're looking at the Dow up 8 points at 35,775. I'd say to subscribers this morning to my opening call, we're all long, we're all everywhere, we've got a bunch of me along the S&P, but I wanted to add to our long position in the Dow diamonds, which we still have a position from, a core position from the low that was made 23rd of March of 2020, we went along the diamonds via calls and then we kept the calls, but we also added the, from just under 211 in the diamonds, DIA, one to one along the Dow, we added core position there and then we took some off and we've kept that core position all the way through, but in between we've traded short, long, short, long and short, long and today I said we want to add to the long position in the diamonds, like exact words, or the word words that were tight words, let me just type that in the right place, it's a long place, on a, the diamonds were trading, let me show you something here, this is pre-market, so the diamonds were trading pre-market in the 358, they hit about 358 level, I said to buy the diamonds add long under 354.50 with a 2.50 stop, so I watched as I saw them diamond, the diamonds pulled back, they went to the 355 level, then they went to 354.90 and I thought, oh boy, I got a feeling we're going to miss this, and then it dived down all within the first two minutes, it dived down to where 354.62 is trading right now 357.64, we missed it by 13 cents, that is, I mean it's not that it's upsetting, of course it's upsetting, but when you do your homework and you, everything's looking fantastic at 8, even 8.15 in the morning, 15 minutes before the CPI report, to have the tenacity to stick with it with a plan, that I'm kind of proud of, I'm just upset, it would have been really nice to have had this as a trading position just to add on to everything we've got, because all we have to do is move to the 356.50 area and we've got ourselves a real good safety net, you can put your stuff for a nice profit, and let it just play out, and it needs to play out into next week, oh that is upsetting, anyway that's the story, that's my story and I'm sticking to it, sorry subscribers to my opening call, I do know some of you had put it in close to that area, but that's not the point, the point is that on a purely technical basis the newsletter missed it by 13 cents, what can I say, look at that V-shaped pattern, look at this, you know in the Chapman Way Method which we're always looking for peak Ds, well we got our peak D in the E-mini right there, this is the 10 minute chart, it went right to the high of 45, 83.25 twice, and then it pulled back, peak Ds, gave it a little bit of a pull back, right down to the low today, oh 45.50, where is it now, 45.72, now my expression has always been for not years but decades that everyone says the market hates uncertainty, and I say no, every single day the market has uncertainty, what it hates is uncertainty about uncertainty, so for a little while now I've been saying look the market knows that yields are going to go higher, so that's not a surprise, maybe the speed is a surprise, the market knows that there's inflation, so that's not a surprise, it's the speed of the surprise, so as long as the market is building in an expectation that it can climb a wall of worry that's really the principle that I'm going with right now, at some point everything's going to come together and say oh look at this, and the market will pull back and hold a decline for a little longer than an hour, 20 minutes, 30 minutes, not the point, the point is we've got a buy signal to a buy mode in the daily chart, we're above the Chapman Inc. track repellent, so we've gone to a peak C, the stochastic is now an 88%, we love that, the Magdy's positive, we love that, the 9 yesterday closed above the 14, that's what I said to subscribers, that's a big positive, and we should try to push into the 35, I'm suspecting the real issue is going to be how if we get there, how do we deal with Dow 35,900, all right enough with that with the Dow let's go on, we got the S&P came back beautifully, it's only down 10 now, what a turn, we're almost to the 9 period moving out, except for one little thing, if you don't use these techniques and this is what I discuss with subscribers all the time, look at this, you've got the Magdy positive, the stochastic finding went to 80%, on balance volumes not good, and that says well we've got to make a decision is on balance volume getting to get to overboard level, was it telling us to be real careful now, I don't know if we make that decision just yet, because what I'm waiting to see is finally will the S&P get to the 45, 95, 42 level or higher to start Leg C, and as we speak the 9 has finally crossed over the day's young, it's a daily chart so we can't talk about it as a final thing, but we've got the 9 period moving above the 14 period moving average, and that will be a good sign that day is young, this kind of explosive move to the upside should have another big disappointing slide, but not anyway like the earlier one, and then if we start to ruddy into the close that'll be a very good sign, so as I say the day is young, we're not even 45 minutes into the trading day, let's see what happens, now this is going to be important, look the QQQ has come back really nicely, it's down to $1.74, at 365.03, if you look at the daily chart it's just a terrible lagging, but it is holding, the Magneese Goose, the casting is weak at 67%, and the 9 period moving average is trying to get above the 14, it's stuck at this 200 period moving average, can it break out, oh what happened to the trend line that I drew there, this trend line right here, oh that's right, that will be from there to we're going to take it right to there, so we're just above the resistance of the Chathamay falling exformation, and that's a good sign, but basically we're looking just for fun, we'll do this because haven't got a position yet, now this is a good sign, ARKK Innovation ETF is trading at $77.06, up $96 it is at $77.48 as a high, it needs to get to $77.57 in leg B, that's a double leg B because there's also a PTA right here, so that'll be a good sign, if we can do that days, yeah, we're going to be watching this, can you help by Twilio, oh okay good, Twilio, T-W-L-O, whoa look at that gap, gap to the upside in leg B, that is a good sign, it says in its rotational market, this is what you're looking at, let me just do this creepy Disney, oh look at that, up 9 at $156, now I've been saying for a long time, Disney's one thing, but six, this is six flags entertainment. 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I'm lower highs and lower lows. I like to say that way. The dreaded age pattern has gone underneath the left side low, just about at 50. And now it's stalling. Pfizer is one of those stocks that is really news-driven because they keep having products. It was COVID, because it's just a whole bunch of things. And then something goes wrong or it's not quite right or it's just not quite in the sweet spot of the medical situation as we see it. And it makes a lower lows. It's 50. Oh, so in the money, 50. So at this particular point, my question will be, if you are in the money, I could be so wrong with this because you'll look at me and say, wow, we still got three, four, five weeks to go, but I'm going to do this. I'm going to say that I would not. This is one of the situations where you have the options because anything can happen in between, but it's going into options exploration. That's the most important thing. And I don't think that at 50, and we're at 51-17 right now, I would want the risk of this closing under 50 in the next couple of days. It could make it, it could go to 46. And then by what is this March? So we're looking at the 18th of March. Oh, that's a long time to go. Wow. And this does fit in with the dividend and the more conservative type of portfolio that some of the fund managers might have. Okay, let me do it this way. On your risk tolerance, and it depends on how many you have, I'm going to suggest to you that I want, I would watch it because if at any point, you got to give it at least one and a half points that 50 level is important. So if it goes to 49, you'll be underwater.  Let's just say you've got the options. You are anticipating that it's going to go, at least you want to get to over the 14 period moving average of 52-83, you want to get to 53 something. So you start making a decision. So this is all I'm going to say is that part of what I would have for the options, if you have enough, I would have a stop on the options based on the action of the cash, Pfizer. So just give it a number. And if you start, if you are now in a losing position, and Pfizer is getting close to 50, I would just, I would take a little bit off. In fact, if you're asking for my opinion, I think Pfizer is going to rally, but doesn't rally from the 46ers and then come back to 51 over a period of two weeks. I'd just be a little careful. It's not been a favorite stock. It's got a peak F in the weekly. It's got a peak E monthly. It's struggling. So I would rather have that cash and put it back to work at a lower price. Just wait. And if you want to be in the money, see if you can get the 47 and a halves at the same price in the money. That would be my preference. But if you want to hold them, then I'd keep a fairly tight stop on part of the position. And the moment it starts to climb, and it can get to the 52-30, that's where you're going to say, oh, this is great. Now it's going to, no, it keeps failing. I would take off a little bit, make it, make a kitty, get yourself, G7 says, that's not a bad idea. Go to June. I think by June, you'll see something different. But at the same time, I'm just saying I would take profits as it moves higher and try to keep within the profit range that you make, try to keep a proportion of the calls that you have. And that's the way I would do it. Because it's got a lot. Look, it's got to go over the 14-period moving average. It's got to go over the 9-period moving average. It's got to go over this long-term, inside track repellence zone. There's just too much to do. This is not my favorite stuff that I'd be looking at. I'm just going to, I know you didn't ask for this, but I am just going to have a look at Merck. They, comparable companies, although they do somewhat different things, but they are in the big, big farmer. So let me just put MRK here. MRK. Yeah, it's also not great. It's got the 200-period moving. Yeah, this is a tough thing. I think the farmers are doing, they're not doing as well as they should. So that's what I'm saying. I think I'm going to conclude with that. Next thing is a TRV. Yes, I know I said to subscribers that the insurance companies, travelers, think of this all-time hire as we speak at 174. Wow. I mean, they've just been on fire. I think even TRU, which is really not just insurance, it's in the financial area. Look at the all-time high at 124, up 285 today. When people say this is a tough market, it's a tough market if you're in the wrong things. If you're in the right things, you're looking around and saying, gee, what's everybody complaining about? But it's really difficult to be so selective that you've been able to pick all the right sectors. And that's a big deal. CF was another one. I've been for subscribers. I wanted to get back in. It did make that leg D at 75, 49 all-time high. Does it pull back a little bit? Well, this is really nice action. Even if it pulls back, it's making high highs and high lows. CF industries, holdings, Inc. Hydrogen, nitrogen, clean energy, fertilizer, emissions of basement, just the works. And the CLF was another one. This is in the steel, a flat roll steel. Look at that move today, up 2.71%. Up 57 cents at 21. These are all being on our list for my subscribers. And what I was saying before is, look, Disney, I've been saying, Disney is one thing. But they've got this whole media conglomerate that you've got to be thinking about. So I loved Six, which is Six Flags, which is trading right now at 4704, broken the weekly to a leg C, broken the, oh, oh, no, this is actually a leg D. So you get an alternate count. And that becomes, you take the left side high, and you have to continue the way form alphabetically. Very simple. And what's really important about this is that it's a much purer play. As far as I can tell from everything I can read of Six Flags Entertainment Core, and it's got to look a straight line from the 36s to the 47s. This is the way that I'm looking at the overall market and saying, be selective, try to pick in, within a sector, try to pick either the best of the best, or the little, or the little, what we call the pited lights, those pited stocks. You know what you look at when you're looking at a shark or a whale, and you've got all those little fish underneath, you want to grab one of those little fish if they show themselves to have the same percentage moves. For instance, look, yes, marry it, all-time high, whoops, M-A-R, all-time high yesterday, having a great turnaround today from a big shark drop, married into national, why is this at all-time highs? Oh, just about all-time highs. So what I did for subscribers, I said, we ain't to find, I don't want to get the same percentage gain, or almost the same percentage by paying $170-something when I can pay something like $80, $8.5 for something that could have almost the same percentage gain. Let's just do it that way. We'll try to consider money for those big flights. So we've got a smaller hotel stock that's pretty nice, but it's up to 0.18%, and marry yourself 1.2. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the Den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. 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So first of all, congratulations on calling you know the mover in these stocks. So that's great. Thank you very much. I appreciate that. Okay, I wanted to talk a little bit about CF. You were looking at it earlier on. I was on the call just holding. But maybe we can take a look at Tesla instead. So we're looking at CF industries, right? Yes, yes, yes. It has nice moves. It moves up and down 5% in credit at some times. So the big thing I'm looking at here in certain stocks is the character. I always believe that it's really important when analyzing phases of the market to also look at stocks or indexes that show particular characteristics. And the characteristic that I've been talking about for quite some time now is how does anything that any tradeable that moves, how does it pull back from a major top and then come back and retest that top? Do you get the double top pattern? Does it break out? What exactly is happening? Well, 74.77 on CF industries, CF is a symbol. On the 28th of December was the high and it dropped sharply to the 63s. That was on the 24th of January. It turns around and then it goes in a stair step way, walking the 14 period moving average. You see this little black line here and it goes peak A pulls back to the line, peak B, huge peak B goes to a new high and then it pulls back a little bit, goes to the C, pulls back all the way to the 14 period moving average and then over the last two days has a big move up and today's high is 76.23. Now I like to think of stocks in the characteristics that they show. And if you look at the weekly chart, look at this beautiful stair step move. Strong move up, big pull back to the 14 period moving, big move up, same thing. So it's replicating in the macro the same pattern that we saw in the in the micro of the day, the daily. But if you look at the monthly chart, look at the same thing happens. And now the magdeen, the monthly is very, very, hasn't even turned down yet. The histogram, well the month is still young, but the histogram is still moving up. Stochastic's at 88%. I love that on balance volume did pull back, gave you that little bit breather and so far in the 90s way above the 14. So the monthly chart says CF industries is in a buy mode in the monthly chart. That doesn't say it couldn't turn down very soon, but this is where it is. The daily chart says, wow, that's exactly the same thing except the stochastic's kind of lagging at 78%. But still it's walking the lines and it's moving to higher highs. So I'm going to do one of two things. Not what you asked me. I'm going to say to you in a long term position until CF industries actually breaks 10 points lower, breaks 64 support, I would consider that this is in a longer term buy and hold mode on a very short term basis. The speed with which it's made is Pb pulls back in Pc and now a leg D in the same three bars and goes to Ui, three bars again and goes to Ui. The symmetry of that, I always, as many of you know, who are subscribed to my opening call, I treat symmetry as a big deal. Well, in this particular instance, I think that we're getting close to a more sideways move that unless CF industry is over the next, today's Thursday, by Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, if there is a 77 read on CF industries, that's exactly what you want to see to say, hey, I've now turned the whole 72 to 70 area into support. This is a big deal. But if it stalls here, it can stall and go sideways while it takes a breather after such a big move. So I don't know if that's explaining what I'm looking at clearly enough for you. But basically, if you want me your perspective, how you're looking at this one, that's great. Okay, good. So keep in mind that on a shorter term basis, it's gone from the V shape pattern. Now it could make a cup formation just an arching over. I'm sorry, can go from the V shape to an arch formation. And it still says that somewhere in between, I'd even make it a little different. I'm even going to say between 1768 could be a short term digestive phase for this. But so far, I really like it. I like the fact that it's in an area. I mean, let's face it, hydrogen, nitrogen products, clean energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, I mean, it just sounds great. So that part of it suits the mood of the market and the fact that it has used every opportunity to make a new recovery high and now an all-time high. I just want to see is this an all-time high? Because I do remember if it was a participant in the big rally now. Yes, it is making a new time. I was going to say the rally in 2014-15. With all these products, we had different, I'm trying to think of the names of some of them, POT, Potash, we had a whole bunch of these just screaming. Well, this is now above the all-time high that was made back in July of 2015 of 70.32. But it is got the H, it's got the W pattern. It looks like a pair of the reading glasses. Here we go. It's got this pattern here. I used to call it something else. I'm not allowed to anymore. The other one was most appropriate. So now I'm going to do this. There you are. And it's going to a higher high. So it says that it's in a rising trend right now. It could have a little bit of a digestive phase, but I like it very much. So I hope that helps you. That's great. Thank you very much, Varsal. Thank you very much for calling. So folks, a couple of things. I wanted to just do this because it was also snap is really important. The fact that it's moved up $1.37 today at $41.68. Now I drew this in and I circled the little, the little, if you weren't even looking, you would say, oh my goodness, look at that V-shaped turnaround. Wait a minute. There wasn't a V-shaped turnaround because look, there was this gap, huge gap down.  It has a high on the 2nd of February at $34.25. And the next day, it has a low of $24.32 announced at $41.70. So this is really good action. And this is saying to me that there are a lot of people out there. There are a lot of people that are considering that things are just horrible, horrible, horrible.  Square is now Block Inc. Yeah, what a name, Block Inc. Square was good. Square, Block Inc. formerly Square Inc. Point of Sale Software and Managing the Receipts. Look, a nice move up, but let's face it, it's been smashed from $289 down to $99. I mean, 67% decline with a doji candle three weeks ago. And then it just took it out a little bit at the $99.50 area. So let's just say, you're looking at the money and you say, oh my God, what is it to buy? Well, look, if you have money that is wanting to be put to work, you can put a stop in here. It's so oversold, it should have a decent balance in $170. You put yourself a three point stop and you can see it maybe just even test the $130 left side. That's six points. No, what am I saying? That's 13 points. I'll be back. 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But what's really important is the people that sold right here with this huge volume, I believe that this is what I call the chapter wave. I have a name for it. I like to describe it and that is climax volume low. And that says within 52 sessions, there should be much higher highs and it should not come back to this low. And if it holds through that, it can go on double that 52 sessions. I'll talk a little bit more about it maybe tomorrow. But in the meantime, let's go to our caller waiting patiently. Sorry, we've got Mike in Ormond Beach. Hi Mike, how are you? Basil, I'm doing great. Basil, with what's going on now and with the anticipation of interest rates and yields rising, what is your opinion of places we should be looking to get into? I've been trading XLF and I've been mostly short term trading that. But in your opinion, what are some other things we should be looking at if the rates do start to climb? So that's a very complex question. There's a very simple answer. And the answer is you mentioned the SPI, the SPI financial spider fund. We are long for subscribers. We're long. One of the bank stocks done fantastically. But at a certain point, the expectation that yields are going to help the financials, you've got to expect that that modus operandi is going to change a little bit because it could also impact negatively the financials for other reasons. So in the shorter term, what you want to see is, forget about talking about inflation or interest rates or anything, you want to see the XLF trading, not just popping once, but trading, I'd say 41.33 in the 43 to 44 area. If it does that and holds for one week, that'll be really good. I think we're getting close to some kind of potential to see whether there's a double top or not. Now that's number one. So in other words, the theory has always been that higher rates help the financials. That is true. But then there's another part of that that can actually be a hindrance. So I'm just saying let's try to keep that as a separate theme. The other thing is in the inflationary area, look, the DBA, which this is DBA Agricultural Fund, which has soybean, wheat, corn, sugar, and a bunch of other that has a little bit of oil, it has a whole mix, is trading this single leg up from the low that was made, DBA is assembled, trading up now 17 cents at 21.35. But the low that was made, that candle on the 27th of January in 1992, so this is a percentage wise, this is a big move. But everything about this is suggesting that it could be getting a little bit toppy. That's not to say that it's going to top. I'm just saying this extension should have some digestive phase. So normally I'd be looking if there's some inflationary aspect, I'd be looking to see other commodities helping with inflation. Well, if we're looking at food, I mean, I don't know where they get their numbers from, I don't know where they shop, but there are things that I was looking at just the other day that maybe a few weeks ago, we're saying the $2.50 range, it's just easy. They just pop it up to $3.10 or $3.20, some products have even doubled. So there is inflation. How does it come down? You can't put inflation. I'd say for a year now, I've been saying when the Fed finally has to deal with a genie that comes out of the inflationary box, my experience has been that that's kind of tough to do. Only a recession really does it. And at this particular point, you can see how this market is trying to anticipate, come back to normal civilization here with the COVID relaxation of the rules in all these different states. So that creates its own mix. So let me get back to, I just want to show you something here. This is what I show subscribers to. I'm opening call on Saturday or Sunday. I'll be doing it this week on Sunday. I'll be out of town. So look at this, the yield and the 30 year is at $22.97, $2.2. But look at the way, you almost have an overlap in the 10 of the five year. So this creates another problem for the general economy. So what I'm saying is that unless we constantly see, I spoke about travelers, just insurance companies at highs, I spoke about different, I spoke about Marriott, the resorts, hotels and resorts. So you have to almost think of this, look at this chart. It shows wood, the eyeshares of the global timber and forestry here, rallying towards the highs. It shows the Philadelphia Housing Index holding this beautiful triple bottom low so far. So the breakdown that you would normally see especially with news, and I have a question here saying, Hi, Basel, if you mixed technicals with the fundamentals, I think you would agree that today was a huge data point with the CPI biggest increase since 1982. But the down 80 points, down 80 points, that was when he wrote it. It's now down only 14 points. That points to as a good signal for the market to absorb the federate hikes in 2022. Translation, forget about the Fed and keep buying the markets, question mark. And I would say yes, but you've got to be selective and you've got to have one foot hovering over the break because if today's low was held, and at this particular point we were down 250 in the Dow, down 34 points in the S&P. I'd say, you know what, it's going to take a little bit of time to digest. But as long as the market is finding places to go to, and I think that answers your question, I think in a sense which you're really saying is what can we do when there's an interest rate hike? And what is historic? This is so unhistoric because normally when you get this kind of inflation, there are other things that are going with it and it kind of impacts a big bunch of market sectors. And I must go back and check, but my recollection is that you would get just GIS, that's General Foods, you would get all these circle safety stocks, the generic let's call it food and items that you can bathroom items, proctin and gamble, that type of thing. They'd be at the lows hinting at recession. So this is a really big mix and what I really am saying is that I think you have to set aside your fear of what can happen and only deal with it when it starts to happen. So if the Dow at 35,700 right now, by Tuesday, if we were looking at Dow, we don't know, down below 35,000 and the S&P at 4584, if it was down at 4484, I would say, you know what, we've got a real problem. This is different. This is a lot of fund managers that the fear factor, I mean, many of us have entered in these shows been showing some fantastic shots. I've copied a couple of them. This one here is amazing. This is investor sentiment fearful. I can't remember who we had at the time. And I'm just copy, I copied it. And look at this. This is at an all-time high. The fear factor is huge. And that fact is giving us a bit of a Christian.  You can hold. Yes, I can hold. Okay, good. We'll be back in a moment, folks. Your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. 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So the pattern that I drew in for the Dow is this arch formation. It's vying between a V-shaped pattern and the arch formation. If I go to the S&P, I drew this in, I don't know, was it you that asked me the question? I think so. About the S&P and I drew this in, I said, I'm looking at this as a bounce. It has to break above the Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone. And then I think we're looking at the potential for an arch formation that can go to a lower case M, another arch formation. And that until we get a substantial climb into the higher 46, 80s or 4700 in the S&P, I'm sticking with us that I think we're in this big rectangle formation in a trading band between certain levels. Now we've got some, there was the wrong one, between certain levels with good support, but also a cap on the upside. And that cap on the upside is really the big thing that I'm talking about because I believe that we can go sideways. I'm trying to get rid of this here. It goes sideways for a little while. And then there's the big test that will come sometime a little later in February or maybe early in March. And that should give us the trigger for a much bigger rally. That's my thinking. And until that changes, and I'll give you the number, as I say, 40, 46, up in the 46, 50, 46, 60 area in the S&P, that'll be really good action. But if we stall here, there is support. We saw that today, but at the same time, it's a cap on the upside. Because I think patience is a virtue. That's what you've got to have right now. And at the same time, think about these different sectors that I'm thinking about. I hope that helps. Yeah. Thank you, medical. Thank you very much for calling. Folks, have a great