Hello everyone. This is financial author Ahmed Dunn of Ahmed Dunn.com. On this channel, you'll find financial travel and more videos just like the one you're watching right now. If you like what you see, please give it a thumbs up and consider subscribing. Hello everyone. This is financial author Ahmed Dunn of Ahmed Dunn.com. Today I'll have another episode of unboxing and brief review video. And I'll be presenting the CIBC AeroGold Visa Infinite great card. I'd like to mention that this is not a paid or affiliated review. All my reviews are unbiased and non-affiliated. So what you're gonna hear and the opinions are totally honest and unbiased. And I'm expecting this review about 15-20 minutes long. I'm going to cover lots of things. For example, Linkshun's coverages and how does this card compare with another airplane great card, which is the TD Airplane Visa Infinite Great Card. So stick to the end of this video and you'll be learning lots of important information which will help you to make a wise decision based on all the information I'm going to be providing you today. Now I have another review and unboxing video of another great card which is the American Express airplane plus gold great card. I applied for that card and the CIBC AeroGold Visa Infinite card at the same time. So that review and unboxing is going to be published before this one. And I'm not going to compare the American Express AeroGold airplane plus great card with the CIBC AeroGold Visa Infinite. Because American Express airplane plus card doesn't offer many insurance features. But this card which is the CIBC and the other card is TD. They are very similar and they offer lots of features. For that reason I'm going to be comparing these two great cards. So let's start the unboxing and then as I go through the unboxing and I'll provide you more information and features of this great card. So here is the full package and here's the back side of the package. So slowly I'm going to take out the whole thing out of the envelope. Okay so the envelope is empty now and I'll put it here. And so this is the whole package you'll be receiving with this card if you apply for this card. And then here is the introductory letter and here we have the card inside or on the back. I'll set this aside for now. Let's go through some features and then on the brochure and then I'll come back to that card. So we have a brochure or manual which I'll go through shortly. And then we have these two pieces. Let's take a look at these. Okay so this is important information about travel insurance on select CIBC cards. Okay so here this is just some policy changes. I don't need to go through the whole thing here. So I'll just set it aside here and then about this one important information about CIBC mobile payment application. CIBC will no longer support CIBC mobile payment app. Okay so this is not relevant to the great card. So I'll just set it aside here and then we have this brochure here. It looks like a nice looking brochure so we'll go through one by one. Okay so let's take a look here. Okay so it reads this way but when you open it actually it reads this way as well. So here thank you for choosing CIBC our gold Visa Infinite credit card. And here are the some things you need to do.  In terms of this Visa Infinite profile if you have a profile with any other Visa Infinite credit card. You don't need to create that again. You can use the same profile. As of this video recording I have three Visa Infinite credit cards. And whenever I call them they ask me which credit card I would like to use and I just tell them the one. So you don't need to do this again and again. You just need to do it once in your life. And then here register, sign up for Apple Pay, enroll in Visa checkout. Okay that's fine. And table of contents. Accelerating your earning and some of the benefits. Okay so we'll go move over to the next page. Okay so here they're talking about the earn rate on this credit card. So you earn one airplane mile for every one dollar. But there is some accelerated categories where you're going to be earning 1.5 miles for each dollar. And these categories are grocery, gas and drug stores. And on aircanada.com purchases. So that's a very nice thing to have at these categories. You're going to be earning more miles. And let's take a look here. And your airplane miles will never expire. Okay so this is an added feature. A steady Visa Infinite airplane has the same feature. So in order to keep your airplane miles active you need to have one transaction each year. So let's say you have this card or even the TD airplane card. And if you do not do any transaction then the system will do a transaction and deposit one airplane mile in your account just to keep the account active. So this is a nice feature. But if you're having this credit card then I highly doubt anyone will not be using this. You know, I will not be having a transaction in a given one year period. Okay so other additional cards. $50 annual fee. If you're having any additional cards. And then authorized user spending limit at no additional charges. Okay. This is a feature actually lots of banks do not offer. So let's say if you're giving your card to someone else then you can control how much they can use. Some cards for example let's say you have $20,000 credit limit and if you give the card to an authorized user the user is going to have full access of the $20,000 limit which is not a good thing sometimes. But with this card you can actually limit the amount the authorized user is going to access. So this is a nice feature. Autopay service to help you on top of your payments. Not important. This is a Taj Mahal. Okay. Here they're talking about airplane status which I don't need to go through. Let's move on here. Okay. So here they're talking about how to redeem airplane miles and fixed mileage flight viewers and all sort of stuff. Now if you're having an airplane card you're going to get the best value of your airplane if you only use that for business class flight redemptions.  So I always recommend that whenever you're redeeming any miles for example airplane miles or any other airline miles go for business class redemptions and that's the way you can get the most value of your miles. Booking and cancellation flexibility. Book your ticket up to two hours before departure. We can do that with airplane. Cancel up to two hours before. So these are the common features of airplane. We'll move to the next one here. The Visa Infinite Concierge which is one of my favorite concierges. So basically you can call them anytime and they can do anything for you. It even doesn't have to be travel related. They can book your ticket. They can find you stuff. They can give you tour. Find your tour. But let's say if you want to ask them something totally not related to travel or anything they can do that too. So I use them a lot. For example my last trip to India and Bangladesh a lot of the itineraries were totally made by the Visa Infinite Concierge and I have another trip coming up. Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and most probably Malaysia and the Visa Infinite Concierge will be setting up lots of tours and other items for me as well. So now here are kind of benefits. I don't need to go through it. It says that get access to priority check-in, receive a complimentary first check-back and take advantage of the one-time guest access benefit on Air Canada Maple Leaf Lounge. Priority boarding. These all sound good but the catch is in order to have all these you're going to have to redeem your airplane for Air Canada and you don't want to do that because Air Canada charges hefty fuel surcharges and if you redeem airplane for Air Canada you're going to be paying money unnecessarily. For example if you go from let's say here to Europe or Asia and if you choose Air Canada to fly business class with airplane then you're going to be paying about five to six hundred dollars fuel surcharges but if you choose any other airlines from the Star Airlines airlines then some of them do not charge any fuel surcharges and you can fly it for paying like a total let's say twenty dollars or fifty dollars. For example I flew to Asia recently, Bangladesh from here I didn't pay any fuel surcharges I think I paid maybe twenty or something for the whole trip for one way from Toronto to Istanbul and Istanbul to Dhaka but let's see if I have chosen Air Canada then I would have paid for the same trip five to seven hundred fuel surcharges so you don't want to do that you don't want to fly Air Canada with airplane because they are not good you know giving for flight redemption they charge hefty fuel surcharges. Okay so now Visa Infinite Luxury Hotel Collection that's another benefit of Visa Infinite I'm not going to go into that and here some of the other benefits of Visa Infinite's cover which is they actually give you lots of things so you can just in a check on Visa Infinite Concealed Websites Okay now the insurances which is the most important thing so we'll flip to the next page and here it has a listing of the insurances and I'm going to go through them and I'm going to actually compare them with the TD airplane Visa Infinite card I have some notes here so let's start with the first one just do it this way and bring it close to the camera lens Okay so the first one is the Outer Province Emergency Medical Travel so this is just the medical insurance when you go to foreign countries or anywhere leaving your province then the foreign emergency medical travel kicks in and the amount this card offers is 5 million dollars for each insured person and it has 15 days if you are under 64 and only 3 days if you are over 65 Okay now TD offers very similar insurance coverages but they offer 1 million total instead of 5 million so here CIBC wins you got 5 million dollars coverage and TD only covers 1 million TD meaning TD airplane Visa Infinite card and if you are over 64 then TD has actually 4 days but CIBC has 3 days TD gives you 1 day extra but the total amount is lower 1 million and here we have 5 million that's a very important insurance you need to have whenever you are traveling and the second insurance is trip cancellation and trip interruption so here CIBC in terms of trip cancellation you are getting 1,000 dollars of eligible trip cancellation for each person to a maximum of 5,000 dollars and this is same for the TD airplane Visa Infinite 1,000 and 5,000 and if you look at trip interruption then CIBC is giving you up to 2,000 dollars per insured person and here actually TD wins TD is giving 5,000 dollars per insured person up to a maximum of 25,000 dollars for trip interruption CIBC is giving you 2,000 dollars per person but it doesn't mention here how much is the total so I couldn't tell you how much is the total you can definitely call CIBC if you would like to make sure what is the total amount for example TD's total amount is 25,000 dollars 5,000 per person so TD wins in here and then we have here common carrier accident insurance this one is actually 6,500,000 dollars if accident happens for you or your insured members and then here 500,000 dollars and travel accident TD has actually okay this 2,000,000 dollars but I believe that's different than some not this one this is usually standard for each credit card 500,000 dollars and let's say we have this insurance is total very similar to what we have TD offers and if you need to find out more let's see if you have TD airplane visa infinite card or CIBC aerogold visa infinite and if you need to clarify something definitely you can call their customer services for example for TD I saw a total of 2,000,000 dollars but I don't think that's in each item it's just probably they're adding up 2,000,000 dollars total but I saw for TD airplane visa infinite same 500,000 dollars each item so that's something you can clarify okay now here let's move on to the next one which is the flight delay and baggage insurance which is a very important insurance if you are traveling so CIBC is giving you 500 dollars up to 100 for ground transportation and 100 for entertainment and expenses and if your flight is delayed for more than 4 hours your insurance is also included 500 dollars per uninsured person 1,000 dollars aggregate limit okay so this one actually TD is giving you the same so there's no difference but the baggage delay CIBC is giving you if your trip is delayed for more than 6 hours okay so CIBC is giving you 500 dollars per person 1,000 dollars aggregate limit for lost theft or damage of your checked baggage okay so here CIBC is giving you 500 dollars per person but TD actually has more here TD gives you 1,000 dollars per person and except this everything is pretty much similar for TD as well okay now auto rental loss, auto rental collision and loss damage insurance so this one if you decline the rental company's insurance then your credit card actually covers it and I'm not going to go into detail here but for this one TD and CIBC has the same insurance coverage and the next one is purchase security and extended protection insurance this is usually standard for most credit cards you get 90 days of purchase protection if your stuff are lost, stolen or damaged and you get one additional year warranty than the manufacturer's warranty so it's not too much differences in this section another thing I found that here CIBC doesn't mention anything about lost baggage so my guess is 500,000 dollars that is not clear here you know how much is for lost baggage but it could be 500,000 dollars but if you need to clarify definitely you can call CIBC okay so move on to the next section our next page so here we have just how to manage your money online I don't need to go into details about that emergency card replacement up to 5000 dollars in emergency cash that's standard for most credit cards enhanced monthly statement this one actually CIBC statement shows categorized expenses let's see if you're purchasing everything with your credit card then it gives a breakdown of under which category you're spending how much which is I like not many credit card companies does that but CIBC does that so that's a very good feature to have online spend report this one I never used it but it's again a nice feature to have so move on to the next one alert security so here we have a spend alert fraud alert, credit report alert identity theft alert one thing I'd like to mention that if you have a CIBC credit card CIBC actually give you free credit score and free credit alert TD does not do that so CIBC has that and you can access this from your app I check my credit score using the CIBC and other free services and I do have a great YouTube article on free credit score you can watch that later on okay so here important contact information very nothing much and here all the benefits are all the footnotes so here nothing to mention and here's kind of a card and booklet have all the contact numbers listed which is nothing I mean which is a good thing to have and then here is the insurance certificate for out of province medical emergency and all other insurance services which I don't need to go through it okay so there's something I wanted to show you let me just see if I can quickly find it here okay so what I'm looking for is that most of the insurance insurance is this card offer is provided by here Royal and Sand okay where is this here Royal and Sand Alliance Insurance Company RNS this company is a very reputable insurance company I didn't hear any bad reviews or ratings for this insurance company so this is a good thing about this card that you're dealing with a reputable insurance company not like a Scotia American Express Go trade card where the insurance company has lots of bad ratings and reviews and it's very hard to get anything back in case you need to submit any claims but this is a good company same as TD TD trade card company trade card TD airplane with an infinite card insurance is provided by TDs on insurance which is again a good company to deal with so in terms of insurance providers if you ask me to choose between let's say TD and CIBC depending on the insurance provider I would go with CIBC because of the Royal and Sand I like them and they're one of the best providers in Canada and I never heard any bad ratings or reviews or any bad experience about them so that would be my choice but TD is not bad either so we're gonna leave it here for now so that one is done and let's go back to your introductory letter okay so here just a standard letter thank you for choosing your trade card your payment is coming and then if we flip on the other side then I'm going to be showing you some okay so here it's not much just standard trade card terms and conditions and actually I had difficulty with this trade card you know because they lost my application and I have a separate video about that experience you can watch it later and I'll keep also it will be on my YouTube channel or I'll give a link in the description box below if I don't forget okay so now let's go to the final segment of this video we're going to take off the card and I'll show you the CIBC Airgold Visa Infinite Quaker okay so I'm removing it from the letter and just give me a few seconds here okay so here's the CIBC Airgold Visa Infinite Trade Card here you have the Visa logo right here the only thing I complain about this that you cannot really see the infinite return here it's very hard to see so infinite trade cards are high end trade cards and if you have infinite return on it then it should be clearly visible but this one is not really visible it's very difficult to see most people wouldn't even notice that this is an infinite card okay so here we have the CIBC Airgold Visa Infinite Trade Card if you like what you see please give it a thumbs up and consider subscribing and I do have more trade card reviews and trade card tips and lots of articles on my YouTube channel so if you like them, subscribe and there will be new videos coming up shortly thank you


The development of molecular market technology in the 1980s has revolutionised plant breeding by facilitating crop improvement through sequencing technologies and providing deeper insights into genetic diversity available for crops. Recent developments in genotyping by sequencing and association mapping based on next generation sequencing technologies have further facilitated the identification of novel genetic markers for complex and unstructured populations, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of molecular markers and breeding strategies. This article was offered by Mohammed Azhar Nadeem, Mohammed Amjad Nawaz, Mohammed Kaseem Shaheed and others.


Hello and welcome back to the craft box. My name is Brent and today we are on episode 75 of the completionist crafters series And today we are crafting some more boots The adepts poetic boots in fact as always everything you will need is on screen. I'm wasting my gold and I love it Ha so good I have way too much gold at the moment every time I get a new piece of gold just a singular piece Prospect is excited. No, you cannot get any more. You are too full on gold Okay, very rude. Please shush. But yeah, we are crafting these myth boots today You need one senators poetic boots and as always I recommend farming the first boss in Mount Olympus to get those For Minotaur TCs, which you can get from Fitzium You can also get them from the bizarre if you want and I'm sure there's other reagent treasure card vendors around there as well 20 crystal vials, which you can get from the celestia crafting vendors where I normally go black pearls By the five of them you can get them from our black lotuses. You can transmute them through that way And I have a video on getting that 20 water lilies I have a video on getting walled cat tails Which you can transmute into water lilies blood moss. I recommend farming pink dandelions or gardening pink dandelions Or there's a video on that as well and pearls Are a thing that you can get in celestia around the place So yeah, that is probably best place to go and find them I think I might have a video on pills. I think they're also rare from kelp. I think don't quote me on that But I'm pretty sure they are But yeah, definitely you can find them in celestia. Anyway, here we go create these boots lovely poetic boots Amazing and with these where where are the where are they there here? They give 100 max health 4% power pip chance 9% death resist 5% incoming heal boost 9% life resist 3% myth accuracy and 6% myth damage myth school only level 30 plus as always on as always on the screen We'll also be the Zeus boots which are generally counted as best in the slot for level 30 So you can compare to see which ones you prefer But yeah, otherwise that is all for today. Thank you for watching Remember to leave it like and subscribe if you're subscribed press the little bell soon Exactly when I post another video and remember to craft outside the box


CHAPTER 24 THE BEBEUF CONSPIRICY AND END OF THE FRENCH REVOLUTION The insurrection of Vendee-Mierre gave a slight check to the reaction which had, up to this time, gone unimpeded. The majority of the convention, much as they dreaded a return of real revolutionary government, were too much involved politically and economically in the revolution to be able to tolerate a complete relapse to the old regime. What they desired was a plutocratic republic in which money should take the place of privilege and a wealthy middle class succeed to the power of the old noblesse and the crown. And the new constitution with its Council of Five Hundred, its Senate of Ancients, its Directorate, its property qualification, and its indirect suffrage seemed admirably calculated to ensure this end. On the 26th of October, the National Convention proclaimed itself dissolved after an existence of three years and a month and the elections were held, and the directory established shortly after. One result of the events of the 5th October, 13th Vendee-Mierre, was not unnaturally a greater toleration of the popular party, many of whom had taken up arms on the last mentioned date against the common enemy, the royalists. The Democrats established a club for purposes of political discussion at the Pantheon, which was for some time unmolested by the new government, Viz, the directory. The leader of the club was Grecus Bebeuf, who obtained the title, Tribune of the People. He had occupied an obscure government post during the terror, but had not hitherto played any important part in the revolution. The society of the Pantheon grew daily in numbers and with it grew the influence of Bebeuf. The members at length ventured to repair to their meeting place in arms, and whispers of a projected insurrection soon made themselves heard. The directory thereupon became alarmed and on the 26th of February, 1796, 8th Vantos, 4, peremptorily closed the Pantheon and forbade any further meetings of the club. The followers of Bebeuf among whom were the remnant of the old commune and committees, and of course all the old Jacobin, then resorted to direct conspiracy and managed to win over the legion of police, but here again they were outwitted by the directory, which immediately disarmed and disbanded this body. The Bebeufists, as they were called, now assembled secretly in a place they named the Temple of Reason and concerted measures for an organized insurrection and attack on the governing bodies. They succeeded in rallying in a short time most of the revolutionary elements of France. It was now agreed to form a new convention of which the nucleus was to be such a remnant of the old mountain as death, prescription and desertion had left. Armed bands were suddenly to march from several points concentrically upon the directory and councils. The Bebeufists believed themselves sure of the military stationed at the Camp of Grenel and an officer named Grisel was in their confidence. Everything was arranged up to the night of the projected movement. Two placards were about to be posted up, one bearing the words Constitution of 1793, Liberty, Equality and General Happiness, the other the motto, those who usurp supreme power ought to be put to death by free men, and the signal was agreed upon for action when the chiefs were suddenly surprised and arrested in their council chamber May 10th. They had been betrayed by Grisel. Bebeuf while in prison wrote to the director suggesting a compromise. He was, nevertheless, with the other leaders sent before the new High Court of Vendôme. On the 7th of September following while they were still awaiting their trial their followers to the number of some hundreds made an armed attack on the Luxembourg, the palace of the directors, but were repulsed by the guards placed there for its defense. They then proceeded to the Camp of Grenel in the hope of raising the military in which they were again unsuccessful, being met by determined resistance.  This was the last attempt of the democracy to recover its position. Almost all the leaders and organizers of the Bebeuf movement were executed by the sentence of military commissions and numbers of other persons were imprisoned and exiled. Bebeuf himself endarté the late secretary of Lebon after acquitting themselves during their trial in a manly manner, fully avowing their principles, stabbed themselves to death with daggers on hearing their sentence. The objects of Bebeuf and his followers were definitely and frankly communistic, which cannot be said of any other of the revolutionary parties. Bebeuf himself, who by the side of Marat, Chomet, Cloutes and Pache, may be regarded as one of the noblest and most disinterested of all the leaders of the time, if in his theoretical scheme he was the first of the utopian socialists also forestalled in his notion of the necessity of taking possession of the political power, one of the foremost principles of the modern socialist movement. With the final extinction of the party of Bebeuf in September 1796, after which the French democracy never again rallied, the French revolution as a distinctive end in history may be considered to come to an end. From the meeting of the state's general in May 1789, to the date just mentioned, was only a little more than seven years, but what an experience France and Europe had passed through. Since Camille des Moulins delivered his famous harangue in the Palais-Royale Gardens on that July day in 89, when revolutionary ardor seemed so single in its purpose, how many parties had been consumed, how many enthousiasms had been burned out. With the forlorn attempt of the Bebevistes on Grinnell, revolutionary fervor gassed its last breath. The bourgeois had conquered. The day of the proletarian was not yet, in spite of his temporary accession to power during the great revolutionary years. The events succeeding the collapse of the Bebeuf movement may be signalized in a few sentences. The populace of Paris and the other large cities gradually settled down into a private life of toil and hardship and indifference to public affairs. The wealthy classes plunged into every form of speculation and extravagance. The new middle-class republic became apparently every day more consolidated. It flourished at home under the director Barra and his colleagues, of whom Carnault was one, and abroad under its new general, Bonaparte. Conquest again followed conquest. New republics on the model of the French sprung up like mushrooms in Holland, Liguria, Lombardy, Sardinia, Switzerland, etc. The fresh elections in May 1797 nevertheless yielded a royalist majority in the councils, the upshot of which was that Barra and the majority of the directors by the following September, when things had come to a crisis, had to call in the aid of the army under general Augereau to overaw the legislature. This succeeded, and a large number of members including some arras of the old Antony's party were exiled on the ground of royalist intrigues to overthrow the republic. Carnault and Berthélemy were driven from the directory. The latter now became practically a dictatorship with Barra as head dictator. Most of the powers tired of prosecuting an adverse war were glad to make terms of peace. England was soon the only belligerent remaining. But the directory without money and having only the armies to fall back upon could not afford to bring about a complete cessation of hostilities. Bonaparte after having subdued the continent about this time returned to Paris, the most popular man in France. Barra, feeling his presence dangerous at home, invited him at once to undertake the task of subduing the British power. He readily exceeded and the brilliant Egyptian campaign entered upon with a view to India was the result. The elections of 1798 which were unlike those of the previous year too radical to please the directory were annulled but those of the following year 1799 yielded the same result. Meanwhile a new coalition had been formed one of the principal factors of which was Russia. The unpopular directory could no longer hold out against public opinion. Negotiations between the various parties were entered into without issue and the government at home was in great confusion when Bonaparte suddenly appeared on the scene having left his oriental army in the hands of General Clébert. A conspiracy was at once formed led by the old constitutionalist C.A.S. to place dictatorial authority in the hands of the successful general. The Senate, seduced by the report of a pretended Jacobey insurrection in the departments which was to shortly reach Paris, consented to decree the removal of both houses of legislature to the palace of Saint-Louis near Paris and to placing Bonaparte at the head of the military forces of the capital. This was on the 9th of November 1799, 18th Brumaire, 7th. The following day the legislature removed to Saint-Louis. The Council of Ancients met in the gallery of Mauss, one of the apartments of the palace, and the Council of Five Hundred in the Orangery. The Council of Five Hundred unanimously swore to the existing constitution, refusing to ratify the powers given by the other body. Bonaparte was driven away with cries of down with the tyrant, etc. His brother Lucien Bonaparte, who was president finding nothing was to be done, came out and harangued the troops stating that the assembly was being intimidated by a minority of the members withdrawn daggers. Bonaparte thus fortified then gave orders for the Orangery to be cleared by the military which was immediately affected. Thus was the consulate founded. From this to the consecration as emperor in 1804 was but a step. CHAPTER XXV THE NATIONAL PROPERTY The course of the revolution cannot be properly estimated without taking into consideration the results of the confiscation of the property of the nobility and clergy. In the directorial constitution of 1795, number 3, we read article 374. The French nation proclaims as guarantee of public faith that after an adjudication legally consummated of the national goods, whatever may be its origin, the legitimate acquirer thereof cannot be dispossessed. The same clause but slightly modified is introduced into the consular constitution of 1800, number 8, and the imperial constitution of 18004, number 12. There is more than meets the eye in these articles. They are the issue and sanction of a series of transactions which established a wealthy plutocracy on the ruins of the old feudal aristocracy of France. The first property to be sold was that of the church. This, which in a sense may be considered as having been held in trust for the poor, was primarily disposed of, not to benefit them but to reduce the public debt and preserve the state from financial ruin. The sales began in 1789 and the period of greatest activity was from August 1790 to January 1791. French companies, English companies, Dutch companies disputed for the spoil, only a comparatively few lots falling to the share of the peasantry since no restriction was laid on the amount sold to any one purchaser. The sales were the more easily affected in as much as only a small percentage of the purchase money had to be paid down. When the time came for the second installment, the money for payment was, naturally, considering the vast extent of the purchases in most cases not available. This led many of the speculators to favor the revolution and all of them to urge on the foreign war both of which would serve as an excuse for postponement. War was accordingly proclaimed in April 1792 and the following August the throne was overturned. After the latter event it was decided that the lands and property of the immigrant aristocrats which now came into the market should not be sold haphazard and en masse like the ecclesiastical property but should be duly apportioned into small lots which the small cultivator might hire a purchase on easy terms. This concession on the part of the middle classes was however simply the result of fear of imminent foreign invasion. No sooner had the armies of du Maurier driven the enemy back than the new assembly, the convention announced that the partition of the public lands must be indefinitely postponed on account of the difficulty of the operation. During the winter 92 to 93 the movable effects of the immigrants came into the possession of speculators and jobbers by means of sham sales. So flagrant was the abuse that the convention had to step in but without much effect. After the fall of the Girondistes the partition of the lands among the peasantry was again definitely ordered. The second grand campaign now intervened and France was for the moment converted into one vast camp. Exceptional measures were the order of things all around and comparatively few small transfers were affected. This did not prevent the confiscation both of the lands and movables of the nobles and suspects going on at a greater pace than ever but it was various agents of the government in the departments who made vast fortunes out of them by their clever maneuvering. Two-thirds of the houses in Paris were now national property. The convention decreed that goods to the value of one milliard should be reserved for the citizen soldiers returned from the wars. This milliard we need scarcely say remained a promise to the end of the chapter. The committee of public safety early in 94 ordered the sale of the confiscated lands to be proceeded with but while recommending that the principle of partition should be adopted did not insist upon it. The net result of the new sales being that large tracts of public land were sold in the lump as before but this time they went into the possession of a new class of thieves. To it the victuallers of the armies who had already made large fortunes out of their contracts. After Termidal this of course went forward on a larger scale than ever. Robespierre through his agent Saint-Just now got a decree passed that indigent patriots should be indemnified out of the goods of the enemies of the revolution but this decree was merely procured to maintain his popularity with the people as was proved by the fact that he never so much as attempted to put it into execution. The ninth of Termidal arrived without the working classes of the towns having touched any of the goods of the immigrants the clergy or the suspects while the peasantry had to be satisfied with here and there a few crumbs in the shape of the partition of communal lands. Barrere had said that they had coined money on the place de la Révolution but the working classes can certainly not be accused of having shared in this ill-gotten gain. Thus even while the masses were nominally in power the middle classes succeeded in nobling the revolution. After the insurrection of Termidal the traffic in the national property proceeded more unblushingly than ever. As soon as the maximum was abolished however the plutocracy founded even more to their interest for the moment to hocus the currency plan to purchase land at however reduced the money value. By procuring a practically unlimited issue of paper they succeeded in reducing the value of the Essignat to next to nothing. The forestalling of the necessaries of life especially grain which was the immediate cause of the various insurrections after Termidal up to that of Babuf was also a stupendous source of profit. The reopening of the bus, the repudiation of the apothec of the Essignat on the confiscated lands, the latter a piece of thieving of the most impudent character followed in the natural course of things. Lotteries were instituted, the prizes of its victory. It is well known how the Americans have tried for thirty years past to throw off this yoke which were the national property. One deputy even had the impudence to propose to take back the lands already distributed among the peasantry. But this was thought to be too risky. Meanwhile the victories of the armies under Bonaparte opened the fresh fields and pastures new for every form of swindling by means of provisioning contracts. A cessation of the war would indeed have been a grievous thing for the rising plutocracy of France. Under the directory the exploiters flung themselves anew upon the as yet undisturbed territories. Everything was now in their own hands. No stone was left unturned to diminish for the nonce the market value of this property. The price which was paid in depreciated paper taken at the nominal value was in most cases simply farcical. But all means of robbery were not yet exhausted. The army contractors refused to be paid any longer in Essignan, but insisted on large sums being placed to their credit in the books of the national debt, thus saddling themselves in perpetuity on the French people. Deputies, government agents, generals, contractors engaged in a mad scramble which could make the most out of the situation. The masses of France had but two purposes in their eyes. To labor at home at starvation wages insufficient to support life for any but the strongest and to serve as food for powder abroad. The vast territorial estates of the feudal aristocracy and the house property of the towns thus passed into the hands of another and a meaner set of lords. The new middle class of France was consolidated economically and politically. Verily the French Revolution was a success for them. And now, having reached the summit of their ambition, it only remained to kick over the latter which had helped them up. The hearth, the throne, and the altar must be re-established on a new basis. We must have done with Revolution and all its wicked ways, said they. Revolution must be henceforth a thing accursed. But a republic, no matter how safeguarded against intrusion of the common people, seemed to many an insufficient guarantee under the existing circumstances for the newly created order. A military dictator who knew how to smother insurrections in the birth, he was the man for the situation, and his name was Napoléon Bonaparte Chapter 26 Conclusion The French Revolution closes in a final and definite manner an epoch in the world's history. The Middle Ages proper it is true came to an end with the 16th century. But they left a kind of afterglow behind them in the shape of the centralized and quasi-absolute princetums and monarchies which prevailed during the 17th and 18th centuries, in the continuance in rural districts and the smaller towns of the old methods of industry but slightly if at all modified. In the perpetuation unabated for over a century at least of medieval and Renaissance superstitions and habits of thought. In short, in the survival of most of the external forms of the old world civilization, decayed like the foliage of a St. Martin's summer. The conversion of the feudal hierarchies into centralized monarchies but imperfectly freed the middle classes. The combined or workshop system of production had not in any marked or violent manner revolutionized industry. The learning of the Renaissance had to a large extent merely given a quasi-scientific and systematic shape to old habits of thought. The political, moral, and social changes leading up to modern times were of course going on all the while and were observable to the truly observant but were not at that time of a run-and-read character. The French revolution definitely closes this epoch. It does even more. It constitutes the dividing line between the world of today and all past ages whatever. The revolution was scarcely over when the electric telegraph appeared on the scene. At the same time, the idea of this steam engine was working in the heads of the ingenious and the closing years of the century saw the first of the new industrial machines established in the factories of the north of England. New stagecoach roads, canals, and other improvements sprang up in all directions. A couple of decades or so more and the great industry was to start the metamorphosis of human production and distribution. Yet another and the railway was to begin the transformation of the face of nature and the externals of human life in other directions. In short, from the French revolution we advance straight by leaps and bounds to the modern world. The city of Paris while typifies the progress. 100 years ago in 1789 it was, unlike London, which in its medieval form was destroyed by the fire of 1666, to all intents and purposes a medieval city substantially the Paris of Victor Hugo's Notre-Dame, a city of feudal fortresses, high walled enclosures, crooked, narrow unpaved streets. The Committee of Public Safety in 1793 began alterations partly with the view of giving employment to distressed workmen. The changes went on gradually till in 1859, housemen, under Napoleon the third, totally destroyed what remained of old Paris and laid out the city in the form we see it today, a city which would be as foreign to Danton, Robespierre or Marat, a San Francisco itself. The Paris of centuries perished in little more than 50 years. What is true of Paris is true of Europe, of the whole of existing civilization. The Europe of 1789 was in the main, the Europe of the later Middle Ages, of the Renaissance, but in the last stage of decay. It had been practically dead for over two centuries and, like Edgar Poe's hypnotized dead man, it fell to pieces with a sudden convulsive awakening after proclaiming itself dead. No restoration could really bring it together again. The new world of our time had meanwhile grown up with its science, its inventions, its intense self-consciousness, and placed insurmountable barriers between us and our naive and simple-minded ancestors. The old Mary England, for example, the England of the Fairy Ring and the Maple had passed away forever. In politics, the reign of the bourgeoisie with its oppression resting on cunning and hypocrisy had shut out the possibility of an enduring reaction to the coarser and more direct methods of feudal domination. There are several minor points worthy of notice afforded by the course of the French Revolution. One feature of the period already alluded to its perpetual reference to classical models and its somewhat mechanical attempt to make history repeat itself, to reproduce the republics of ancient Greece and Rome in 18th century France, can never be left out of sight.  All men, however little else they knew, seemed to have had at least a superficial schoolboy smattering of Roman history. Almost every speech and every newspaper article of the time bristles with references to Coriolanus, Cato, Cicero, Brutus, or Caesar. In fact, Roman history was to the French Revolution very much what the Jewish annals contained in the Bible were to the English rebellion under Charles I. We, or rather modern science and historical criticism, have changed all that. We no longer look to the past as a model for the society of the present or the future. The doctrine of evolution has taught us that human society, like everything else, is a growth, and that though corresponding and analogous phases certainly do recur in history, we can yet never argue back from one period to another, as though there had been no intervening development, or as though the economical, intellectual, and political conditions were substantially the same or might be made the same. Another point the revolution teaches us is the effective power of minorities. The terror itself, whatever view we may take as to its justifiability, it cannot be denied, was kept up for nearly two years by a comparatively small but energetic minority in all the towns of France. Outside this minority, the Jacobin, there was a floating mass of inert sympathy with the object of sanculatism and a belief in the necessity of drastic measures in view of this situation. Beyond this, again, was the vast mass of inert stupidity and indifference which was effectively cowed. The active enemies of the revolution were of course reduced to silence. It is significant again to notice that most of the great crises were connected with affairs on the frontiers. The 10th of August and the September massacres were the response to Brunswick's manifesto and the march of the enemy on the capital respectively. The 31st of May was directly brought about by the invasion of the new coalition and the disorganization of du Maurier's armies consequent on his defection. Finally, the 9th of Termidal and the abolition of the terror followed on the disappearance of the last trace of danger from the foreigner consequent on the battle of Florus. The extraordinary enthusiasm which we find, the reckless readiness of all alike to inflict and to suffer death, might lead us to suppose the men of the time to have been a race of born heroes or monsters, or both. The average of them were neither the one nor the other. They were the products of social forces beyond their control. The feeling of the all importance of the public interest carried all before it. Prior to the revolution, they were probably neither more courageous nor more truculent than ourselves. The same courage and the same truculancy might manifest itself in any man of character under like circumstances. Even Rebespierre was, as Carlisle suggests, probably neither better nor worse than other attorneys to start with. But in his case ambition ultimately assumed the mastery over his whole personality. This was partly owing to the fact that he was undeniably a man without a vice, in the ordinary sense of the word. Now only very exceptional men can afford to be without the ordinary vices of mankind, and Rebespierre was certainly not one of these men. With his ascetic Russoite notions of republican austerity, he had suppressed his natural appetites, the consequence being that all the morbid elements in his character, having no other outlet, ran into the channel of self-idolatory and morbid ambition. The first condition of a well-regulated man is to know how to properly distribute the quantum of vice with which a bountiful nature has endowed him. A false morality teaches him to suppress it. But this he can seldom do, and if he succeeds, it is at the expense of all or much that is distinctive in his character. In tearing off the coating of vice, he tears off his skin with it. The usual case, however, is that the vice has not got rid of at all, but only forced into some out-of-the-way channel. And whatever vice is concentrated, it is bad. When all the vice of a character is focused on any single one of the natural appetites, a man becomes a sot, a satyr, a glutton, a confirmed gambler, etc. Now Reves-Pierre sat upon all the usual valves. He and his ascetic band poured scorn on the Ibertsiste and the Dantonista-like for the looseness of their lives. But having closed up all the ordinary exits, his vice came out nonetheless, but concentrated in the form of a truculent remorseless ambition unparalleled in history. The rank and file of the actors in the Revolution it is difficult for the reasons before stated to characterize by any of the ordinary ethical standards. The best of them did things we cannot always approve while sitting comfortably in our chairs. The worst of them showed much genuine and disinterested devotion to the cause of the people. Where we called upon to name the five men whose aims were probably the purest, we would mention Marat, Chomet, Cloutts, Pache, and Bebe. Danton, apart from the disputed question of his bribery, was a mere politician who only interested himself in social questions when at all, insofar as they immediately affected the political situation. The issue of the French Revolution was, as we have seen, the modern world of great capital and free trade as opposed to the old world of land and privilege and all that that change implies. In the storm and stress of outward events, we are apt to forget the work done during the terror era by the committees of the convention. Administrative, educational, and illegal work which helped to build up the modern governmental system. The Code Napoléon itself was based on the labor of Merlinda Dway and his committee. In France, the political and juridical side of the great change was most prominent. In Germany, the philosophical and literary. In England, the industrial and commercial. While French politicians were engaged in establishing the Republic, German thinkers were engaged in founding 19th century thought and English inventors in establishing the new modes of production and locomotion. But while the medieval organization of society held together for centuries, the modern is already showing signs of approaching disintegration. Why is this? We answer because the latter contained from the first in its very nature the seeds of dissolution. The capitalistic system of necessity feeds upon itself. Competition, which is the breath of its life necessarily also destroys that life. It may be that the opening up of Africa and other as yet unexploited territories will give the system a further lease of existence lasting some decades, but the end cannot in any case be a long by and by. End of chapters 24 through 26. End of the story of the French Revolution by Ernest Belfort-Bachs. Recorded by Céline Meijor.


Hi, I'm Zor. Welcome to Unisor Education. Continue talking about Bernoulli statistics. This lecture is part of the Advanced Mathematics course for high school students. It's presented on Unisor.com and this site actually contains notes and exams for registered students, so you can basically take it from there. It's actually better to watch it from this website because the game of the notes each lecture is like a textbook basically, so you can read it before or after the lecture. Okay. What I would like to do today is to very briefly summarize what we have learned about Bernoulli statistics and how to deal with this, and I will criticize one particular aspect of the approach which we have taken and I will try to improve this particular aspect by introducing a concept of sample variation which we did not use in the previous lectures when I was explaining how to determine the margin of error and a certainty level for your evaluation. Alright, so very briefly reminding how it was done. So let's consider that you have a random variable c which is distributed according to Bernoulli distribution, which means it's equal to 1 with a probability of p and 0 with probability of 1 minus p. Now you would like to know what this p actually is, we don't know it, and as an example we used to say, for instance we have a manufacturing facility and it manufactures certain parts and certain percentage of the parts is actually defective, a small one hopefully, and we would like to basically find out what's the probability of having a defective part manufactured by this particular facility. For instance we have two facilities and we would like to invest money in one of those, so we would like to know which one is better. So this probability of manufacturing defective facility actually makes sense to know, to be able to invest money into proper company. So this p is unknown. So what do we do to find out this p? Well, we can find it out exactly, but we can evaluate it. Now the way to do it is we have actually made end experiments, got n results, or 1s. Now what we know about this is the expectation of c is equal to p and variance is equal to p times 1 minus p. I've done it many times before to derive this to its trivial actually. So now when I have certain number of results of the experiment and each one of them is either 1 or 0 now what I also know is that the probability is actually defined as a limit of the frequency of occurrence of certain event. So in theory if we are doing certain number of experiments with this variable and this certain number is very very large, well in particular this tends to infinity, then the frequency of occurrence of this particular event should be closer and closer to this p. So the frequency is a very good estimate of the probability as long as the number of experiments is large enough. Okay, so how to find out, now if my expectation is equal to this probability, to find out this probability let me make a sample mean of these experiments. I add them up and divide by n since these are either 1 or 0, 1 when the event occurs and 0 when event does not occur. So this actually is a frequency frequency of occurrence. Alright so this frequency of occurrence should with going to infinity should be closer and closer to p and that's why m is very good a variation of our unknown probability. Great, now our next problem is to basically to prove it. Now how can I prove it? Well we can prove it in a very simple way. Now what is our value m? Well consider the new random variable which is this where every c i's is distributed exactly the same way as c and they are all independent, so independent and identically distributed as c. Now what is this? It's a new random variable, right? This one. eta is a new random variable. But what's interesting about eta is that our mean statistical mean, our sample mean m is actually a single value of this particular variable. Now what's interesting is I would like to know basically the following. What's the difference between this eta and this c? Well here is interesting point the mathematical expectation of eta is, well one n's can be outside and that's a factor and mathematical expectation of sum is sum of expectation, so it will be n of them, they are all the same and they are all exactly the same as this. So this will be n times p divided by n, so it's p. Now the variance of eta again, the factor can be taken out of the variance but in square because if you remember variance is an expectation of square of deviation from the mean, right? So basically it will be 1 over n square and then the variance of sum is actually sum of variance is 4 independent variables, so it will be the same variance as c multiplied by n and divided by n square so it will be p1 minus p divided by n. That's very interesting because you see what's the difference between them? The expectation is exactly the same but the variance is n times smaller of this. Now what does it mean? Well it means that if n is really large our deviation from this mean would be really very very small, right? Because the variation is small and since variation is small, I should say variance, I'm sorry, variance is small then all the values and this is one of the values of this particular random variable, right? Will be very close to the mean value. So they are all concentrated since variance is very small then all the values of this particular random variables with a very high probability, I'm not talking about 100% probability. Maybe there are some odd balls but with a very high degree of probability our single value m would be within this particular area within the mean of this particular random variable which is actually p. So m would be close to p and using this variance we can evaluate how close it is. It's very important however there is one unfortunate event. Well we cannot measure this because we don't know the p, right? However what we did before and that's very important, I said that this is less than or equal to 1 over 4n because the function p times 1 minus phi on this particular segment from 1 to p has such a shape and the maximum is 1 fourth when the p is 1 half. That's a parabola, right? It's a graph of parabola y is equal to x times 1 minus x. At 0 and at 1 it's equal to 0 and it's directed with these horns downwards and the maximum is in the middle which is 1 half and the value is 1 quarter. So although I do not know p times minus p, so I do not know exactly my variance of eta, I can always say that it's more greater than this. Which is already good, right? Because n is going to infinity, right? n is increasing so my variance is still getting smaller and smaller and I can now quantify how small it is, right? Well granted it's not a very good variation. Well with p close to 1 half it is a good variation but if p is very small and very large closer to 1 then this variation is not really that good. But no matter it is it's really a variation from above which means that if we will use this as a measure of closeness we will get a better result so to speak. I mean it's more certain results, that's the word. It's more certain results that if we will use this instead of the variance then it's more certain that this particular value would be close to the mean with a higher degree of certainty higher degree of probability. So this is an assumption and that's exactly an assumption which I'm going to criticize. I will try to make it better. Let's put it this way. And then there was another assumption which I can't do anything about quite frankly. Another assumption was that I cannot really very easily based on the variance evaluate how close the m is to the mean value of eta based on distribution of eta. Because this is a binomial distribution and it's not so easy to calculate quite frankly. However there is a central limit theorem which says that with large number of added together random variables the sum behaves like a normal distributed random variable. And the greater the number of components the closer distribution of this is to normal distribution with the same mean and the same variance. So without going into exact discussion of how close distribution of this is to normal I will just follow the practice of just saying okay let's just use the normal apparatus of the normal distribution to analyze this. Although strictly speaking it must be actually investigated as well and that would affect the certainty level of our conclusions. I'm not going into this it's kind of outside of the scope of this course so I will just assume that I can use the apparatus of the random variables with normal distribution with this mean and this variance. Or the variance actually is less than this one. To analyze how close my any particular value is to the mean value of this particular random variable and to analyze this using the apparatus of the normal random variable. I will use the rules of sigma. Now you remember that if you have a normally distributed random variable and the frequency is graphed as a bell curve. This is my mean and now sigma is actually a square root from variance so in this case I can say that this is less than one half square root of n since I have this estimate from above. So there is a rule of one single sigma, there is a rule of two sigma and the rule of three sigma so this is minus three sigma and this is plus three sigma this is minus two sigma and this is plus two sigma and finally this is minus sigma and plus sigma. So the rule of single sigma says that the probability of my variable of my random value of this random variable to be within this segment minus sigma from the mean is 0.68 I think 25 I don't remember exactly, I believe so. Now in this area the two sigma area, this one has the probability 0.9545 and finally the three sigma area and almost certainly my values will fall into this area is 0.9973 if I'm not mistaken. So this is sigma, this is two sigma and this is three sigma. So what I'm going to do is although I don't know sigma exactly I do know it's a variation from above so if I will use this one I will just increase my interval and if I will use the same interval of certainty I'm definitely in the right. So I can say that the probability of absolute value of m minus e of eta to be without, to be within level let's say two sigma. So the difference between these two values, the probability of this to be less than two sigma is greater than 0.9545 right? It will be equal if it will be real to sigma but since my sigma is actually greater then the probability will be greater because I'm expanding. Now so I can quantify everything except this is really not such a good approximation in case my p is closer to 0 or closer to 1. Now let's try to make it a little better. So my purpose for today, now this whatever I was just saying before it's kind of a repetition of whatever was before and now I'm going to suggest you the way to improve this particular expression for variance of eta to make it smaller actually to make it closer to the real variance especially it's important for smaller p or larger closer to 1p because in this particular case the variation which I have made which is a true variation for p from 0 to 1 it's not really a very good one for smaller p well let's just take a look at this for instance p is equal to 0.01 now what is this this one is 0.01 times 0.99 so let's say 0.00 what's 0.99 something like this right? Yeah I think I'm right. Now what is this? This is 0.25 you see the difference? This is obviously greater but it's so much greater that it screws up basically the validity of our variation. I mean we can evaluate much more precisely if we knew that this is in this particular range. So the difference is huge, the difference is 25 times I have increased my variance by the factor of 25 that's just too much right? So let's try to improve now the way we improve it is the following now you remember that and what did we do to evaluate p or evaluate basically which is the same thing the mean value of c? We used a arithmetic average of the sample right sample mean that's what we were using can we use something like this to evaluate this? Well basically absolutely let's consider what we did to evaluate the mean we took the values and took a arithmetic average of this now what is this? This is average deviation square deviation from the mean right you remember what's the definition of variance it's a mathematical expectation of deviation of our random variable from its mean square that's where it is. So we are averaging deviation from average square okay great now we don't know obviously the random variables we know just our sample but let's use the sample to do this we have already evaluated this with this right and we basically replace this with particular value so let's just use particular value x1 minus m square plus etc plus xn minus m square and divided by m make an average of it and we can call it s square n and we can call it the approximation of the variance seems to be reasonable right so instead of just saying that this is less than one quarter I use my sampling to basically evaluate more precisely the variance of c it seems to be making sense now what should we actually do to prove that this makes sense and what's good and what's bad about it well first of all let me talk about what's bad about evaluation of variance using this as a variation of variance well bad is it's not precise it's evaluation which means it introduces at a certain level of uncertainty you see how many uncertainties we have introduced we have introduced before that our binomally distributed random variable eta we have assumed it's distributed almost like a normal distributed that we don't know how much how close this distribution of this binomial variable is to the normal variable but we have introduced basically some element of uncertainty and we did not quantify it well which is bad in some way but again the quantification of this is kind of difficult it goes outside of the scope and well we took it for granted that it's not such a great disturbance in our certainty level now here we are introducing one more uncertainty we are replacing something not with the upper bound as we did before which did not introduce any uncertainty it just made our evaluation much less narrow as we could probably now we have substituted this instead of variance and this is a variation which means it's not precise it may be greater maybe smaller and that's the problem it introduced certain level of uncertainty which is difficult to quantify difficult but not completely impossible there are two very important aspects of approximation of this as an approximation of this there are two very important factors the factor number one a variation of something should actually be unbiased now in what way I mean unbiased actually we did discuss this before now what is this this is a single value of eta right now what's the mean value of eta because we know that values are somewhere around mean value right and how close is basically this described by the variance but we would like this mean value to be exactly what our evaluation is supposed to be that's what we're trying to evaluate mean value of this is as we were talking before is exactly this so mean value of eta is p and variance of eta as you remember is p times 1 minus p divided by m now we are trying so this value has the same expectation as this and as this so basically a single value of a random variable eta a good approximation in the sense that the mean value of this around which our single value is distributed is exactly the same as what we are trying to evaluate now what is this well this is a different variable let's call it zeta let's not apply zeta and how can I express this this is a single value of a variable of a random variable equals 2 1 over n and here I will have c1 minus instead of m we put c1 plus cn divided by m squared plus et cetera and the last one would be cn minus this sum okay this random variable which is expressed in terms of c actually is the random variable of which this is a single value because m is this and this is a single value of this and x is a single value of this and where c1, cn of course are identically distributed and independent variables with the same probabilities p of y minus p so it would be great if mathematical expectation of this is this variance if I can prove this then at least I will say that this is an unbiased evaluation of my variance okay so being unbiased is very good the second is how close these values are to this now to do this I have to evaluate the variance of this so my expectation of zeta should be equal to this and my variance of zeta should be very very small as n increases to infinity right well let's just try to check it so the rest of this lecture I would like to prove that the mathematical expectation of zeta is this well actually that's not exactly what I'm going to prove I'm going to prove that it's not exactly this but I will correct it in a way that it will be let's put it this way so I will have to correct this particular random variable and that's why I would correct this thing in a very small way very small touch to this formula to make this exactly expectation of this to be exactly equal to my variance alright so let's examine what this is so we need the expectation of zeta now first of all one n should go out that's the factor now here I have n components added together and mathematical expectation of some is a sum of mathematical expectations right and mathematical expectation of each one of them is exactly the same because these x1, xn and these are all identically distributed and independent so I will have n expectations of this thing expectation of so let me just take the first one of them because they're all the same so I will put c1 minus c1 plus etc plus cn n square expectation of this and obviously this goes out and that's what I have now how can I evaluate this expectation well let's just raise this into a square like you know a square sorry a minus b square is equal to a square minus 2ab plus b square right now this is my a and this is my b so what will be is the following equals expectation of c1 square right square of this minus 2 expectation I took factor 2 out of c1 times c1 plus cn divided by n plus expectation of c1 plus etc plus cn divided by n square right equals now what's expectation of c1 square well c1 is equal to c1 square is equal to 1 or 0 right because c1 is equal to 1 or 0 so c1 and c1 square are actually the same thing and that's why expectation is exactly equal to p so it's along with the probability of p 1 square or 1 and 0 is probability of 1 minus p so we have 1 so we have p that's easy now this alright let's just think about this if I will multiply it well let's just put it this way c1 c1 plus c1 c2 plus etc plus c1 cn divided by n right that's what we have and I will repeat this as is square divided by n square that's little easy right square here and here I put it separate equals ok my p is here now minus 2 now what is this well n obviously can go out so it's 2 divided by 1 now expectation of sum is sum of expectation so this one is c1 square and we know the expectation of this right it's p now all these are expectation of the multiple of product of two independent random variables and expectation of two independent variables is product of their expectation product of expectation of c1 times expectation of c2 so it's p and p right because expectation of each one of them is p so it's p square and how many times p square is n minus 1 time right that's what it is and now how about this one well obviously 1 over n square can go out what's inside alright here is how we can do it think about what is c1 plus et cetera plus cn square well that's c1 plus cn times c1 plus et cetera cn now we have n components here and n components there so they're all multiplied to each other how many components will be as a result well n square obviously right because with each of the first sum will be one of the any one of those components of the second sum second component of this product so we have n square different expressions some of them are squares like c1 times c1 would be c1 squares or c2 times c2 will be square how many squares would be n of them right and expectation of each one of them like expectation of c1 or c2 square or c2 square et cetera is p so it would be n times p now the rest n square minus n components would be equal to expectation of let's say c1 times c2 or c7 times c17 now expectation of product is product of expectation for independent variable so it's p and p so it's p square that's it now all we have to do is to do some algebraic manipulation which I have done in the notes for this lecture I'll just give you the result it's a little disappointing right this is disappointing you remember we are evaluating variance of c variance of c is this now as n is increasing to infinity this thing becomes greater actually greater and greater approaching 1 but for smaller n it's not 1 it's like 99 100s or 999 of 1000s et cetera so it's not 1 so this is not exactly equal to p times 1 minus p which means our evaluation whatever we were thinking about the sample variance as we called it is not really an unbiased evaluation so let me write it again here our evaluation was called sn square which is 1 over n sum of xi minus m square i from 1 to m average deviation from the mean square and this is also the sample mean obviously so this is not our unbiased evaluation can we do it better than that well there is a very simple solution let's consider sn minus 1 square which is 1 over n minus 1 sigma xi minus m square i from 1 to n what's the difference between them well the difference is factor so if I will multiply sn square by this factor I will get sn minus 1 because the sum is exactly the same it's all n parameters but I divide by n minus 1 instead of n now if I will multiply this by a factor now obviously all my calculations will be basically the same except this factor will go out from the very beginning and multiply by this factor my real expectation of 1 over n minus 1 sigma xi minus expectation of xi square right this will be exactly p times 1 minus p because now and this sum is again it's all n components from 1 to n but division is by n minus 1 so by dividing by n minus 1 instead of n here here this we make our evaluation unbiased considering this to be a single value of this variable we get exactly the same expectation as the value which we would like to evaluate the variance of xi ok so what's the bottom line of whatever I was just discussing so far yes we can more precisely evaluate our variance so instead of making a root evaluation I call it root we can make more precise evaluation using this don't forget this n minus 1 division of sum of n but divided by n minus 1 so it's not exactly a arithmetic average according to a classical definition of a arithmetic average so using this we will get an unbiased evaluation of this thing good or bad as a variation well that's actually a big question because I know that expectation of this is exactly this but I don't know the variance of this now to calculate the variance is possible but again it's too complicated for this particular course and I'm not going to do it however I will definitely tell you that the variance of this variable goes down to 0 as n goes to infinity so if you will calculate the variance of this it's n in the denominator so which means that we can definitely improve our evaluation of the variance by using this and with a relatively large numbers n the variance of this relative to its average value to its mean expectation value is really very very small and we will have the right to do it let's put it this way so we have now unbiased evaluation instead of evaluation from the top we have an unbiased evaluation of the exact value however it's not with a hundred percent certainty it has certain degree of uncertainty which is introduced into the whole system of equations and that's what basically makes this well let's put this way more precise but less certain and different people prefer different things let's put it this way but this is definitely a valid approach if your n is significantly large which means that the variance of this around its mean value is not really the big one well that's it for today I do suggest you to read my notes for this lecture it has a little bit more maybe elaborate calculations for those who would like to follow it and it will probably give you yet another view and another step in your conquering of this particular thing anyway I would like you to remember that whatever we did was actually in pursuit of certain evaluation and this evaluation must be number one unbiased and number two the corresponding random variables of which our evaluation is just a value should have a small variance that's what's important so all the values including our sample value are relatively close to the mean value and the fact that the mean value is exactly what we are trying to evaluate has been already established so the mean value of our new random variable like this one is exactly what we need in this case it's a variance but the variance of this should be small enough which means our sample should be big enough and in the next lecture I will consider the same problems I did before but before I did with this evaluation of my variance now in the next lecture I will explain what if I replace with this evaluation of my variance how significantly it will change the calculations of let's say certain number of experiments to achieve certain certainty and certain margin of error that would be the next for today that's it thank you very much and good luck


Okay, we're back here live in Silicon Valley in San Jose for the Open Compute Summit. This is SiliconANGLE and Wikibon's theCUBE, our flagship program. We go out to the advanced extracted cylinder from the noise. I'm John Furrier, founder of SiliconANGLE, my co-host Dave Vellante, co-founder of wikibon.org. And our next guest, JR Rivers, the CEO of Cumulus Networks. Welcome back to theCUBE, Cube alumni on at VMworld this past year. Welcome back. Thanks, thanks for having me. So what's new in your world? VMworld was just half a year ago and lots of change in this tech world. We're in a bubble, I think an innovation bubble personally, but I love bubbles, I think innovation comes out of it. Any update on traction? You got some news you want to share with us? Give us a quick update and then let's jump into the news. Yeah, so business is moving along, like in the context of any startup, we've got a lot of customer interests, customer engagements up and down the spectrum from production to trials, all the way down to proof of concepts, kind of the classic, this is how you go to market. The real interesting evolution or change in the industry is we just announced today that Dell has, or in conjunction with Dell, they've opened up their networking hardware platforms for third-party operating systems and Cumulus Linux is the first third-party operating system for Dell networking. And we, Dell and the customers, look at this as kind of a pivotal point in networking, especially around the enterprise. In the past, if a customer bought a platform from an incumbent vendor, they're stuck. Once it was wired and cabled, that's all she wrote. Now, with Dell, they can buy a Dell networking platform and pick the software that runs on it. They can wire the platform up and they can put any software that they want on the platform and move forward. So it's pretty awesome. So take us through what's the evolution of Linux for networks. Obviously, you guys have had a little angle on that. And why is it such a big deal for Dell? Obviously, Dell is one of the incumbents that Dave was on stage talking about today around the quote, proprietary, as Frank called it, proprietary bullshit, still billions and four hundred billion dollar market. Dell's going to, obviously went private. We spoke to Michael Dell about that privately and he said, hey, I can innovate. So is this their version of separating out and trying to get a network OS to get into this new build your own cloud game or is it just fundamentally a product whole fill for them? What's your take on it? What's your view?  So if you look at Dell on the server and storage side, you can buy a Dell server, you can drop down and pick any operating system you want. Yeah, you bought the hardware from them but it's industry standard hardware, X86, arms coming on for them. Same thing's true on the storage side, you can buy storage solutions from Dell, which includes software, or you can buy storage hardware from Dell and put your own software on it, various software angles on it. On the networking side with Dell, it's in the past it's been proprietary bullshit, right? They're on OS and that's what you're stuck with and Michael and team looked at it and said, hey, right now we make people like our software to buy our hardware, why are we doing that? We should just open this thing up and people can choose our hardware and then pick the software that makes sense to them. Maybe they'll pick Dell OS, which they got from Force 10, maybe they'll pick Qumilis. There's going to be other people on that list too. So I'm sure Marius Haas was involved in this deal. He was. And Marius is three comm, sold out to HP. So Dave, this is an interesting chess game, interesting battlefield kind of lines being formed, converged infrastructure, how that's morphing, what we talked about this morning around this. Disaggregation. So Jerry, I'm interested, how do you compare to say the typical white box, right? How do you differentiate from what's going on there? It's got software management. So define white box. I mean, that's a tough question, right? In the context of networking, there's kind of, we'll call them little known name brands with their own little pieces of software on it that come from various places. We separate that from something we call bare metal networking. And that's really what Dell's kind of stepped up to.  And then it changes the discussion. So you can have a differentiation around what the hardware is, you know, is it quality? Which chip it is? Is it Broadcom or Intel or that kind of thing? Then you can also have differentiation around the software. What does the software do? What are its characteristics? Is it an open flow software solution? Is it traditional?  So you see differentiation around both layers. A lot of people say, oh, hardware is non-differentiable. We've heard that a lot. Doesn't matter. You would disagree with that. Absolutely. I mean, I think if you paid it, you know, Frank's keynote today was a leading indication of that. You can take an X86 CPU chip, you know, from Intel, let's pick them for the sake of argument and package it up, you know, thousands of different ways. And that's part of what OCP is all about is, you know, if I need, you know, a DualSocket X86 server and I need it sideways or diagonal in this big of a space, I can go to a set of providers that can get it to me without having to go through a traditional OEM channel, right? And so that is hardware differentiation. So give us an update on, so Dell obviously a huge deal, giant distribution channel, where else are you seeing momentum in the marketplace? So we have some, you know, some reasonably large, actually some extremely large outlier customers that we are either in production with or working with on heading towards production. We're seeing a lot of traction in the smaller web presences, content delivery networks, small social media companies, that sort of stuff, private hosting environments. And those are kind of production engagements. We're seeing a lot of trials and proof of concepts in enterprises, you know, pharmaceuticals, financials, that sort of thing. For a lot of those guys, the procurement channel actually still does matters, which is OCP is about freedom of choice. A lot of them have a approved vendor list and they want a name brand supplier like a Dell. And that's what inspired this relationship on both sides of the coin. The customers wanted to see Cumulus plus Dell together and help make that happen. So you're essentially trying to take the model, the Linux model for servers and apply it to networking, right? Precisely, okay. So why did it take so long?  It's hard to even find another market where there's an entrenched player that, I mean, you look at the server business that's pretty fragmented, the storage business is fragmented. Cisco dominates the networking business. Why did it take so long for that open source, you know, ethos to come into networking? Well, I think it's been an evolution in a while coming, right? Now we've, excuse me, we're at a point where the hardware ecosystem around Silicon is you basically, it becomes industry standard. So a company like Broadcom has the de facto chipset that people use for most of the networking components. Even Cisco with the NCMA Nexus 9000 launches also based on Broadcom tried into, just like everybody else is. You know, Cisco makes a lot of revenue off of other platforms based on Broadcom platforms. And customers are starting to recognize that. They're starting to take the tops off of these platforms and look inside and say, hey, wait a minute, that's the same chip in this box, in this box, in this box. Isn't this all kind of the same hardware? Well, wait a minute, you just said this, said this differentiation, right? But that's an example of less differentiation, right? So you got to differentiate differently, I guess. Exactly, differentiation often times is supply chain, form factors, those sorts of things. But customers want to understand what to expect. Like, you know, if I came around and said, hey, here's my new networking chip, it's the best thing in the whole world. Nobody knows what it is, how it works, it's a big mystery. You can't build a system around mysteries. You have to build a system around things that you know and understand, right? Now the fact that you took a chip that's industry standard, like an X86 or a Broadcom networking chip and stick it in a form factor that's suited to your needs, like the open rack form factor for OCP, that's a different discussion, right? Right. So, Jay, I want to ask you about the headline, Wall Street Journal wrote a nice article for you guys, Dell embraces bare metal networking. So obviously, bare metal's back. Or bare metal is back again for the 10th time. But that's a real fundamental, you know, nuance, right? Bare metal has been the preferred approach for many people, building out data centers, stack and rack, now you got a big data center operating system concept going on. Cloud obviously, software defined, kind of everything from data center to internet of things. Still there's a software layer involved, right? Network virtualization can help that. But a lot of people forget about the actual bare metal. There's still bare metal involved, there's still data centers. So what do you mean by that? What does bare metal networking mean? Is it fully differentiated than cloud? Is it kind of interplays with it? Cause here, it's open stack on top of open compute. We saw a great demo from io.com, CEO. That's cool, nothing wrong with that. I love that, I'll take that all day long. But underneath that, what's bare metal networking? So mutually exclusive, are they work together? They're kind of mutually exclusive. Kind of take a step back from it and if you're a consumer, any level in the market, you should be able to go fill out a bill of materials and buy that hardware and then come in and put your software on top of it. And if you change your mind on the software, you should be able to put different software on top. So Greg Slushman, when he was talking about this thing, they have a platform that's almost like that except for their networking component. The networking component is branded and they're stuck with who that supplier is. They can't come in and- Branding you mean Cisco, Juniper or whoever? Somebody, yeah, I'm not liberty to say. The networking guys. Right, exactly, it's an incumbent networking provider. And so in the context of bare metal networking, it basically says you should expect your networking elements to be the same as you would expect a storage or a compute element where it comes in, you can buy the hardware, you can cable it up, you can get it from a whole bunch of different suppliers depending on the supply chain and form factors of choice. And that's what you want to disrupt. You want to disrupt, you want to disrupt, there's no real licensing fees, it's more per port or per box, right? You want to disrupt those guys, right? That's what you're, that's- The networking incumbents, right.   Yeah, yeah. Right, and it's not so much, I mean, part of it is we want to disrupt it, but realistically, customers want that disrupted. They want to be able to say, hey look, I bought a piece of hardware, I cabled it up, I shouldn't be locked into Cisco because I chose Cisco at that point in time. If I don't like those guys, I want to be able to switch to another provider software. Share with the folks, what's the sons of Cisco? What does that mean? I saw that kicked around the register blog. What does that mean? What's sons of Cisco? That's Jack. Jack has the most awesome taglines ever, right? So, I was part of the Cisco crew for a while. I worked there about 16 years and it's kind of, I would say, part of the problem. And now I'm becoming part of the solution. Well, so I want to- You're disrupting the guy that you knew all where the traps are, all those barbed wire, trip wires, land mines. When I started, I was there for 16 years and when I started, we manufactured everything in-house. We wrote the operating systems from scratch. We did all the ASICs from scratch. It was really, really hard. And technology has matured over those 16 years to the point where we talked about industry standard silicon. We have operating systems like Linux that are very full-featured on their networking functionality. We have supply chain, manufacturing people that can build the box and ship it anywhere in the world. And so, a lot of the systems engineering pieces that we started off with at Cisco have disappeared and this is like the new Cisco.  I'm sure you do. I'd like to hear it on NSX versus Cisco's application-centric infrastructure initiative. Right. I think the easiest way to talk about it is to ignore the pluses and minuses of either side in terms of their features and functions but recognize the grip that any one of those solutions has on a customer. In the context of VMware plus NSX and let's just call that vSphere for the sake of overall discussion, I can build a data center and I can choose to run vSphere on top of that. And if I don't like VMware, for some reason they make me mad, I can throw that all away and switch to OpenStack. I'm not locked at all. My hardware is my hardware. I could have put new software on top. That's software-defined data center, right? Now VMware NSX, they can control a hardware switch, cumulus linux, or RISTA, a bunch of other people can be controlled by VMware NSX, but still it's a software problem. Cisco ACI is a vendor lock-in.  It literally is a 15-year lock-in that customers are getting ready to walk into. Okay, so you're leaning toward the open approach. We're redefining open in this day and age, John, right? JR, I want to ask you about the DevOps killer environment because what you're basically saying here is, Dave, we're just talking about DevOps guys eat glass and spit out nails. They're a unique breed, right? And the networking has been a bottleneck. We've asked everyone on theCUBE from executives, Bethany Mayer at HB, network virtualization is kind of that first step towards changing the game. But in a DevOps environment, like a Facebook, for instance, or like George at IO, right? You mentioned, they don't want the standard gear, but that's all they can get right now. So you guys want to disrupt that. That makes total sense to where we're coming from. How do you guys compare in that environment with, say, Arista, who's had a good name with folks do large-scale stuff like the Cloudera's of the world, the new school guys coming up? Are you different than them? Are they not open source? Are they one of those guys on that side of the street of name brand? Or are they frenemy? We're definitely competitive. So we're sort of that way. You know, I'm not going to throw too many nails at those guys. I like them as a group of people. I think they're in the incumbent category and that they sell hardware and software together. So therein lies one of the main differences. The counterpoint to that is we both have recognized that having a platform that's open for people to orchestrate around in meaningful ways, whether it's leveraging an orchestration tool that exists like a puppet or a chef or a CF engine or a monitoring tool like Collecti, Nagyo, Scraphite, or some homegrown thing that a DevOps might decide to pull together out of mixtures of all that stuff, that's what makes modern realistic operational environments fly. So for the folks out there that might not be in the weeds on the networking, so what you're basically saying, correct me if I'm wrong, you're essentially allowing people to separate hardware and software environments so that they're not dependent upon each other so that they can mix and match the best solution. Is that what you're saying? That's part of it, and the other part of it is, cumulus specifically, our product is called Cumulus Linux. We hardware accelerate the Linux kernel, so Linux kernel data structures are intact, so anything that manipulates those things, anything you can do to orchestrate a V-switch, you can orchestrate cumulus Linux with. So it makes it a lot easier for people to leverage those environments and tools. I just added that on my list of knowledge, thank you very much, and sharing that with everyone there. So it brings my next question, which Dave and I are interested in, is when you talk about Linux kernel, you can't help but talk about Flash, persistent RAM. Where is that coming in all this? Because that plays interesting, because you start preserving the Linux kernel, Linux kernel based off, is that going to change the addressability around data, data management? Does that affect anything that you're doing? Are you, are you? The bottleneck, put more pressure on you, right? Does that help you? The storage, the spinning disk, no longer the bottleneck? Well, you know, for what we do, we're not fording packets in software or anything like that. We know these, the Broadcom ships, they do all the heavy lifting terms of capacity. So we, as a company, and we see the industry transitioning this way, we're trying to add, help customers add more capacity in an affordable, easy to deploy way. So if you look at a modern server, modern X86 platform, Intel platform, and you look at tiered flash infrastructure, there's no fundamental reason why customers shouldn't be running 40 gig ethernet to their servers today. And if you talk to like a Facebook or any of these guys and ask them, could you use 40 gig? They'll say, yeah, hell yeah, I could use it. And then they're going to say, well, do you use it? They say, hell no, I don't use it. And they say, why? Because it costs two freaking months, right? And so the reason it costs so much is because the supply chain is such that it doesn't allow people to get to where they need to go. Well, so what's next for you guys? Where are you at in your funding? Have you had your B and C rounds? Where are you guys at? Just give us a quick update. We're on round G, no, just kidding. No, just, that's a joke. We just recently raised a round. We typically don't talk about it from a PR perspective, but we've got enough money to last two, three years. Second round, third round? It's a B round, yes, yes. Series B, we have a great set of investors. They believe in what we're doing. We've got a lot of customer validation points, so they're obviously out talking to our existing and prospective customers to understand what the possible traction looks like, and they've put money on the table to give us, you know, less weather any short-term storm that Cisco can throw at us and come out on the backside as the winners. What has been the biggest surprise for you, my final question, over this past year, in terms of adoption out with the clients? Any aha moments for you? Any kind of revelations around where your value proposition is in the product market? Yeah, there has been. I expected a lot of customers to kind of not get it.  And they say this is exactly aligned with where I want my business and my IT department to go. It may take me a while, but this is where I want to go. And, you know, we see this happening now. I mean, we launched the company in June and we went GA with our software at the same time. So we're seeing customers now that are calling us back that we talked to in July or August and said, hey, it wasn't the right time. And they're calling us back now and saying, you know what, now it's the right time, let's go. What do you think's changed? They're organizations. They, you know, a lot of times they look at something like this and they say, this makes a ton of sense. I need to think about it for a while. I need to kind of let it settle and set. I need, you know, a lot of things have to align right. And they start looking at where they want to go with their infrastructure. You know, the fact that we have this, you know, the VMware support, for instance, a lot of them are picking VMware NSX as their network virtualization solution. They say, hey, great, this ties in really well to that. You know, let's go this way. I want to try it, you know, on this path. You know, and a lot of it, another part of it is just the organization. They realize it's not scary for a networking guy.  You can automate those parts. It's been most of your time around architecting your data flows, increasing capacity, dealing with application level problems. Adding value. JR Rivers here, the CEO of Cumulus Networks. Obviously he was on theCUBE in VMware. A lot of great updates since. Big deal with Dell, Open Compute Summit. This is the homebrew computer club of what it would look like if it was in today's world. Open source at the backbone of it. Open environment, great open hardware. Great traction in its fifth event. Facebook really anchoring this out. JR, great traction on your end. Again, speaks to that same religion. Openness and choice and freedom. This is awesome about what's happening here. Great story, we'll be right back with our next guest after this short break. This is theCUBE, I'm John with Dave, we'll be right back. Thanks guys.