Welcome again to Condo Insider, Hawaii's show about association living. I was thinking about it earlier today. We've done about 70 episodes over the last year and a half approximately. We've had a lot of interesting panelists. We've had a lot of interesting questions. I want to remind our audience that if you want to join our conversation or have a question you're always feel free to call our hotline at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The last couple of weeks we've been talking about disasters and condominiums mostly related to fire and I thought maybe a little change of topic this week and one of the big misunderstandings from my experience has been the American Disabilities Act and the Fair Housing Act and what applies to condominiums and the great risk that it imposed financial risk primarily on associations that don't handle this correctly. So I invited back my good friend and pal we teach each other a lot and joke but he knows I'm smarter than he is so we'll just get by with that. I invited Scott Shirley back to talk to us about Fair Housing. Welcome again Scott. Well thank you and I'm sure the audience is wondering by now what you have over me that gets me to come in and sit with you during these shows. Yeah I'm sure that's probably true. Probably the promise of all the alcohol after the show then as some bearing on this matter. Well I was promised a raise too. Well you should get a raise. Yeah.  Anyway we want to talk about Fair Housing. Yes. Before we get into the specifics of that just give me a little background in that area about your background in Fair Housing and that type of thing. My background is and I've studied written and taught about it for over 20 years is actually what you started the show with. I have studied the Americans with Disabilities Act a great deal and ties it in with federal fair housing. So there like you had mentioned earlier there is a missed sort of like a disconnect where people understand what the ADA applies to what fair housing applies to. My involvement into Fair Americans with Disabilities Act is I had two family members that were basically wheelchair bound and so understanding how that law helped them when it went into place was and then I just picked it up from there and ran with it. Well I hear condominium boards say all the time particularly residential condominiums because we know there's mixed use that has some commercial elements to it but staying with the residential condominium complex we have to do this because the ADA the American Disability Act requires that. And no not at all as a matter of fact I hear that quite often mostly from homeowners who go to the board and says the ADA requires you to do this for me and as we mentioned the I always tell people the easiest way to separate ADA and fair housing persons with disabilities is to think fair housing is housing. The ADA is basically commercial anything of public accommodation your bank your restaurant your grocery stores places like that are under the Americans with Disabilities Act but your home your condo your home a rental is under federal fair housing and of course in Hawaii fair housing laws as well. So in a mixed use condominium where you had a first floor with a restaurant in it those businesses would have an ADA responsibility. But once you got beyond that floor and it's all residential that's federal fair housing. But are the requirements basically the same under fair housing or ADA or well it's interesting you say that or ask that in that a lot of things are parallel in the ADA and fair housing persons with the disability however the big difference is is I live in a condo I'm in a wheelchair I need a ramp on those two steps in order to get to my unit who pays for that. I know the answer the owner pays for it. Me yeah the owner of the unit or the tenant of the unit but in a commercial situation it's the commercial entity that pays for that not the customer who's coming in. So in essence because the ADA is commercial public represents the public at large the commercial unit would pay for that ramp where when you get into housing and it's an individual need of you as a resident or owner or tenant if you want this additional accommodation the cost would be borne by that individual or the tenant who is requesting it and of course the board can have certain rules as well as it must be done by a license contractor and things like that you don't it's like very common people think wheelchairs come in one size that's not entirely true and so maybe you're in an older building where the door is very narrow and you can't get a wheelchair through it you can request and pay for widening of the door but it's got to be approved by the board it's got to be done by a license contractor to do that because you don't want Uncle George coming down with a chainsaw and just cutting a wider door. And for our viewers to kind of give an example that correct me if this is wrong but I'll give you a factual scenario there was a four-story walk-up building where the owner who was elderly wanted to put in a stairlift that is up those four common element stairs because he had a hard time walking and climbing the stairs he wanted to put in at his expense the owner's expense a chairlift and that the board did in that case they said you're more than welcome to use a license contractor to install a proper chairlift recognizing that other owners might be able to use it and this common four-story stairs however we're going to also require you to agree that if you sell or move for the funding unit so that's no longer required do you have an obligation to remove it once you're no longer a resident of the building and not only are you correct I've used that example in a number of my classes as well yeah so the key to this whole thing is that first of all it has nothing to do with the ADA it has to do with fair housing and we certainly recognize the need to support the disabled make your life better by giving them reasonable accommodations but it's not at the association's nickel no and and we have to realize that us boomers are not getting any younger and we're finding more and more people of a certain age I'll say a seasoned age continuing to live in their units wanting to stay in their units so they may later on in life need some type of accommodation to help them continue to stay there and that being said my message to boards from experience are there are situations of their population ages where maybe you want to put a limiter on your elevator doors they will close a little slower or you may want to put additional walkway lighting in which is generally good for everybody but certainly maybe more preferential to the agent that boards just in good conscience should do as an association expense to help make it better for people to live in the property as a matter of fact you know the Americans with Disabilities Act was passed in 1990 went into effect in 1991 so it's been around a while and one of the side effects of that law is more developers and more buildings are already incorporating certain things that are required under the ADA because it makes life easier not just for somebody who has a disability but easier in general so you're seeing more projects with wider doors and door handles rather than door knob and these are just part of the things that is just sort of weaved into general development now well and being a senior and with my my dementia setting in one of the things I would say to you that from good business practice you know best best practices if you improve your lighting or the door closing so it doesn't hurt people you're preventing future liability no matter what the person's age is you know by taking reasonable standards to provide a safer place it's just good business judgment it's great business judgment I do however have because you had mentioned that you were a seasoned citizen they're actually in the fair housing laws two levels or two age levels of being a senior citizen and the first level is 55 and older my issue with that is who the hell decided 55 was senior citizen and I'm getting more upset about that because I'm getting closer to that age and couple years ago I got my AARP card so who decided 55 was a senior citizen maybe they were talking IQ no that could be which means I should have gotten my AARP card much earlier that was my thought I'm glad I know you well we have some fun on the ship but but the reality of is there are those types of properties where they're considered over 55 where they're allowed to establish rules like you can't have children live on the property in a general combination for people as they do age they may want to quiet or lifestyle that's over 55 community and it has to be registered as such and it has to be designed as such and recorded as such the key to those senior living facilities is 55 and older means that it's a 55 and older facility 80% of the units must be occupied by somebody who is 55 or older the next level is 67 and older and that requires 100% of the units to be occupied by somebody who is 67 and older and we have those type of places here in Hawaii but a lot of people are more familiar with them on the mainland where it's not just a building it's an entire subdivision like a Dell web type of development the short example that I one time managed a 55 and over community and we had the situation where we had the 70 year old resident who married the 25 year old girl all right for her to live there even though it was his wife legitimately he had to file for a waiver from the board which was granted summarily because it's a spouse yeah sadly he passed away and so now you have in the resident the 25 year old ex or her wife you know and so she was told she has six months to find another accommodation because she no longer qualified for the waiver because there was not somebody in the home over 55 years of age and that was enforceable yeah and well she either had to find another place to live or another elderly resident to marry within that six months that's she could have done that and unfortunately it got into somewhat legal short term but in the end she recognized that she could not stay there based on the on the rules and and sold the unit because this over 55 home is a particular type of transaction well let's get into fair housing well let's do that and would you say there's a risk to associations if they don't follow the fair housing I think over the last several years I think associations are learning that federal fair housing does affect them and prior to that a lot of condos thought that doesn't affect us because there's a little section in the law that says if you're selling leasing or renting out a unit you're under federal fair housing that was actually argued in court one time and the judge agreed with the attorney and then an appeals court they said no no no it's not just for that can you have a rule that let's say no children under the age of 10 can be out in any of the common areas after a certain time well my recollection we have the federal law that we have kind of a state law which I'm going to say expanded the classes of potential discrimination well and I'll point that out too is you have the federal law as the basis in every state actually has their own additional fair housing protections believe it or not there are some states that have under their fair housing laws that you cannot discriminate against a member of the military and some states you cannot discriminate based on appearance which means you and I could finally get something to rent to help our viewing group here let's talk about the fair federal support okay well what give me some of the things that would be considered discrimination under the federal law federal law only has seven discriminating factors to it and it was passed in 1968 but it was amended in 88 to include things like disability so under federal law you can you cannot discriminate on the basis of race color religion sex handicap familial status in national origin those are the seven standards under federal law any additional would be up to the individual state to create their own familial status is like single married divorced to that with children to wherever children yeah and national origin would be where they came from exactly all right because we're heading on the break right now okay take a one minute break and we're going to come back and give you some very tough questions which I'm going to be listening to very carefully because it may affect your race in the future I'll be back in one minute hello hello I'm Helen Dora Hayden the host of voice of the veteran seen here live every Thursday afternoon at 1 p.m. on think tech Hawaii as a fellow veteran and veterans advocate with over 23 years experience serving veterans active duty and family members I hope to educate everyone on benefits and accessibility services by inviting professionals in the field to appear on the show in addition I hope to plan on inviting guest veterans to talk about their concerns and possibly offer solutions as we navigate and work together through issues we can all benefit please join me every Thursday at 1 p.m. for the voice of the veteran aloha from the foundation for a better life over back with condo insider I'm sitting here talking to Scott surely a true expert on fair housing in the ADA law and during the break our producers said we're funny then so we think it changes to the comedy hour you sing or dance or do anything well then we wouldn't have an audience anymore that's probably true anyway we talked about the federal law and discrimination and we got down to race color origin sex handicapped familiar status national origin so let's just take a situation so you're a condo association you own a unit which you've taken in foreclosure you want to rent it out and so I have an illegal alien come to me and says I want to rent your unit am I now violating the law because of national origin or or because of race by saying I'm not going to rent a legal alien a my condo unit that we foreclosed on I think you've hit on a very hot topic right now because you're seeing more and more this issue coming up with sanctuary cities and things like that and this again is one of the reasons I always have recommended condo associations if you're foreclosed on a unit and you're going to rent it out hire a professional to manage it because the professional knows the statutes the rules your scenario a typical real estate company that's handling a rental has certain requirements that must be provided in order to rent so if I can't provide you an identification that shows who I am if I can't show you a passport of who I am and I can't show you my source of income meaning I can afford this rental but I don't have anything to prove that I can afford this rental those are areas where you don't have to accept that application because those are very strong criteria is on determining if you can afford to even rent the place so you can turn that away and it wouldn't be discrimination based on their where they're from probably the message on that is to be careful what you say because instead of saying I'm not going to rent this to you because you're an illegal alien you would say to them I'm sorry we need a source of income to justify you can pay the rent as the reason so it's very important that boards and or their management team carefully look at how they respond to these things they don't inadvertently use the wrong message for turning down an application another good example why it's important to have a professional doing that they say the board did take it back a unit they're renting out they want the resident manager to show it and somebody shows up and the resident manager says yeah they show up and they got two kids the resident manager says you know the board would prefer not having children live in this have they just violated fair housing just with that remark yes absolutely well it's interesting about it too I'm always advocated having a professional manage the units owned by the association not necessarily because of fair housing but the tent landlord tenant code it's very strict and there's great penalties on that and when you rent units it's better to have someone trained in that skill set renting the units you don't violate nevertheless fair housing the landlord tenant code here in Hawaii absolutely and of course in Hawaii we've added to the federal law on what is discrimination and in that we've added ancestry marital status so being single being divorced is a marital status service animals HIV and AIDS we've also added age disability sexual orientation and gender expression and identity one of the things that's interesting about the one in there HIV and AIDS we actually had a point in the real estate industry that if I sold a house to somebody who the seller had AIDS and I told the buyer the seller could sue me over that but if I didn't tell the buyer now the buyer could sue me over that so you were in a damned if you do damned if you don't situation the legislature came along and said that is a protected class and even added into the language that it is not a disclosure item so you don't disclose whether a seller or buyer has AIDS or HIV well just for everybody's education let me give you a couple of them quick ones to respond to so you have an application and some puts down there I'm a convicted child molester can you discriminate on that person you can discriminate we don't even want to use the word discriminate we can reject that application because of the criminal background but the key to that is have they been convicted of this we're not technically supposed to use information on a criminal background if they haven't actually been convicted of it yet you're presumed innocent until proven guilty but in the court records they have been convicted of this you can turn down that application for that rental because of their criminal background just like you have somebody who's been convicted of cooking crack in the last place they live well what's the likelihood that they might do it in this rental so you can use that as a basis well speaking of crack let's go to marijuana so a person puts in an application and says I'm a marijuana user and I have a legitimate legal marijuana card to use marijuana can you reject them because they're a user of marijuana with a with a medical card you know that's an interesting aspect and I get that question quite a bit and the issue is is under federal law is any use of marijuana legal no no but in hawaiian a number of other states the use of it for medical reasons is legal so the property manager does find themselves in a little bit of a catch 22 but our statute specifically states that you cannot evict somebody because they use medical marijuana and of course if they prove their provide verification that they do however the smoking that marijuana bother the other people around in a condo and in some cases it does and so if the condo association has a policy a no smoking policy and the statute literally says if the person takes their medical marijuana by means of smoking and you have a no smoking policy you can enforce the non-smoking part they can still use it they just can't smoke it but my belief is and correct me if I'm wrong although I haven't been wrong since 1977 I don't believe what I was wrong at in 1977 but I just know I haven't been wrong for a long time but anyway saying that up front so as an owner of a property wanting to now sign a lease with someone an association owned property would fall in this category yeah I have the right to say I don't accept smokers yes you do and it has nothing to do with marijuana has to do with I don't accept smokers and so if I generally don't accept smokers I can reject a marijuana smoker because I'm not rejecting it because they may take it by other methods you know but I'm I'm saying I don't allow people to smoke no matter what it is from this apartment we want to smoke free environment and that I could reject a smoker marijuana person if I generally didn't allow smoking period it's it's interesting too because most of the professional property managers I'd say at least 99% of them already have a policy in the rental scenario of not allowing smoking whatsoever and including to vaping they start they added vaping onto that and of course as you know now in the state smoking laws vaping is considered the same as smoking a cigarette so wherever a cigarette is banned so is vaping yeah that's I understand the issue and I think you're going to do a show coming up here shortly with an expert on the smoking issues in general what boards can do or not do with respect to banning smoking on the nines or in the apartment and that that's another topic in itself so when you see complaints made against boards or associations what do you see the most common fair housing complaints that are made it used to be up until a couple years ago familial status people with children and what was happening is they were creating rules that were specific only to people who had children common one in the house rules is children can't play in the common areas hallways etc etc hud says that's a violation of fair housing and it's a very easy fix nobody can play in the hallways common areas or another aspect of that is children can't roller skate bicycle etc etc just take the word children out and have it nobody not allowed you know I think what's common I see is they I'll use this as an example it varies is that children under 10 can't swim in the pool by themselves but that's an important thing there and I always recommend condos to check with their master policy carrier because some of them already have rules that they want to see on that pool sign because this is a life-and-death type of scenario particularly when it comes to jacuzzi's as well or hot tubs so I always recommend they check with their master policy holder they might be surprised to find that they actually have some recommended well there is things I see is that you know that the issue of swimming in a pool is what if you had a Olympic training kid who's under 10 years old who's experienced swimmer the really issues become I hate to say playing in a pool by anybody using it or two or it comes to the situation of you shouldn't be allowed to be in a pool unless you consider an experienced swimmer if you're not an experienced swimmer then you should have a guardian or supervision or then you wonder that little some associations have the nice fancy pool the jacuzzi and then that little waiting pool that they have for children does that mean an adult isn't allowed to go in there yeah that's probably true but but so to avoid these potential fair housing claim claims which is done by the white civil rights commission what do you recommend associations to I recommend that associations if there's fair housing training offered either through CAI or any of the other organizations take it also when you come up against a fair housing issue at your association talk to your attorney there's a reason and especially somebody who specializes in that area because a fair housing case can really get dragged out it can get nasty we saw one association on Maui ended up not only the the fine which starts out at 16,000 they had to pay out two hundred thousand dollars to the person that they did wrong to yeah the big thing I see is even if the board is right that's somewhat a vague complaint the civil rights commission likes to settle these matters yeah and what they always demand is the board attend fair housing training so it takes eight hours of your time so my okay we're at the end of the show so whatever my advice to them is use professional advice but when you think about fair housing issues with the association and the state law look at what the protected classes are and make sure you take those into consideration before you make policy established rules or make fines whatever it may be so you have any additional comments on that I promise not to discriminate against you because of your age all right how about me do you have any great jokes your song or dance you want to do at the end of the show what are these days you and I are going to come in here with the top hat and we're just gonna I think we'll just dance our way off the show then thank everybody for watching condo insider I actually had a whole another page of questions for Scott so reluctantly I'll have to invite him back again but but as you can probably tell those who are watching we go back a long way of great respect for Scott and his ability on these matters and thank you for being here and thank all of you for watching this week's condo insider aloha


Okay, very good morning to you. It is Wednesday the 10th of February. Just to give you a heads up, if you're in the Amplify Live community, then later on this evening, the regular kind of weekly fixture for the masterclass at 6 p.m. in London time, we've got two former trainees of Amplify Trading from many years ago, and they're gonna be coming back to talk to us about their journey, how they got into trading, what they've been up to, kind of lessons learned, tips and advice for any of those new guys starting out, and what they're doing nowadays. And they're still both, I can happily say, actively having success and trading in the market. So that's the masterclass for today, so you check that out. If you're not part of the community, remember to check out the link in the description of this video. But let's get straight to it and talk about what's going on in markets this morning. So let me flick over my charts to give you a bit of a flavor of the overall cross asset class mix.  And when I mean slight, I mean by the narrowest of margins, anything from basically down 0.03% in the down to 0.1% in the S&P. So we did snap that sixth day consecutive game that we had seen in the U.S. equity market, and we saw a period of consolidation. So very much in line with what our expectations were when we were looking at the markets this time yesterday. During Asia-Pacific hours though, things have bumped up again. You can see here, we've had a bit of a breakout in the S&P through its relative high that was shackling some of the price activity from yesterday morning and also in the late in U.S. session. And then in the early part of the Asia session, snap out above that and push up. So the all-time high now printed in the futures in the S&P at 39, 21 and a half. Reminder for the Asian markets, given the Lunar New Year, things then start to see mass closures across that region as of tomorrow. So we're keeping that in mind in terms of the liquidity for the overnight session and the kind of general then impact for the European morning for tomorrow. Otherwise, the major thing I'm really looking at again, very similar to yesterday, is the currency market. And we looked at this chart a couple of times, but we had further validation, if you like, of then the dollar moving back below this key area. And we were of the view that this would keep the dollar back then in that kind of negative cycle, if you like, of continuing this downward trend that we've seen materialized over several months. So in respect of the kind of January pickup in the dollar that we've had, technically having moved back below there, we thought that was going to be significant and we saw quite a decent move, which helped elevate all of the major dollar-based pairs. And if you start extrapolating that out from the technical setup on some of these FX charts, I think it does look quite interesting now in the likes of Eurodollar and Cable. For Eurodollar, this was an area I was looking at yesterday with the rectangle here, and this goes back to kind of some of the January, late January price action. You can see here previous areas of support and resistance. And we came up there pretty early yesterday and then faders came all the way back down to basically quite a key area technically, which is around this 121 handle. And then the market just grinded it out as the dollar just weakness kind of persisted. Again, failed to break through into late in the US session until then Asia came in and just generally risk sentiment kind of picked up a little bit and some further dollar weakness ensued. And that's just broken us out above quite a key level now. And when I'm looking at this chart, I was just looking at this trend line as well as we've been moving higher. And that does then coincide with around now the breach of that key level. So I think you've got quite a nice platform here now. You've got this kind of developing pattern now of dollar weakness, which I don't see anything too much to disrupt that. But technically now you've got a nice firm support area defined by that resistance now being quite firm. Yesterday has now broken and should consequently act as quite a nice area of support with that trend line as well. So Euro dollar upside from here, where I'll be looking, well, gonna target first of all the overnight Asia pack highs, they would be just above where we're training at the moment. And then ultimately I'd be looking more up towards 2150, which is then 52 is the R1 on the session that puts us up at those highs seen on the 28th, 29th of Jan. And then a push above there to that prevailing high then up at 121.68 should we get up there today. Cable then similar type of thing, dollar weakness being the catalyst and therefore we've broken out above a key technical area in cable. And this is something we were looking at yesterday on the 90 minute chart. And this was that year to date price activity in this trend line, which had been acting as a nice area of resistance. And it was doing so again yesterday morning until timing wise, we saw a fairly similar development in this currency pair. And we've broken above 138 now, which I do think is obviously meaningful. I've talked about this before on the daily chart. There's not much here now as technical resistance until we get quite a bit higher and really psychologically I think 140 has got to be the target here over the medium term basis. And if we pull back, I think you've got a couple of nice things here to help support this currency pair in the intraday environment. If we did pull back, you can see this 138 is the daily pivot. If you're looking at the futures, it was the prior days area of resistance turned support. And you've got the trend line support as well. So don't mind the look of at the moment cable here to be supported at around 138. And so then to eventually move higher with the idea that as I said, I think dollar weakness will persist for the time being. There is a risk, of course, to the dollar recent movement and that is the CPI reading coming later at the US. I'll talk about that in a moment, but I do think that that's going to be quite a defining factor for some of these currency pairs whether or not they reverse this recent move or we continue the trend that's been developing. And with those technical setups now as a nice firm floor for euro, dollar and cable, a softer inflation reading, I think perhaps could be the more interesting of the two outcomes because everyone's a little bit inflation and reflation obsessed at the moment. So if the inflation number is fairly soft and that's accounting for the fact that there's almost gonna be like a 10% premium on the fact that there's been such a big move in energy prices that will lift price pressures, then I think that will only fuel further losses in the dollar and help those currency based pairs. So that's quite a key thing I'm looking out for today. The other things are looking at the energy market. We had the API crude on infantry's last night. You can see here, but before we get to that yesterday, yeah, just marked up that area that we were looking at in the briefing yesterday, market responded to that quite nicely and around that 5730 and then just moved bounced all the way back up. So it's kind of quite a traditional move we've been seeing of late in recent weeks for WTI crude, which is it kind of pushes itself up. I mean, we've been going consistently higher. It comes down quite quickly, but then it's almost a V shape recovery and price, which I think again, even at these levels goes to show a general market appetite, I think for oil at the moment, the general enthusiasm coming from multiple different things, whether it's a supportive, low rate environment, force coming stimulus, developments on vaccine. These are obviously all important catalysts on the demand side for oil. With OPEC plus, of course, just staying and standing pat at least for the time being for the next two months.  You can see there's no real firm direction on the back of that data, if anything, just very choppy. And the reason for that was basically that you had a crude headline drawdown of three and a half million expectations were for just one. So bullish on that figure, however, the gasoline was a bill of 4.81 million, the biggest bill since April of 2020. So it was slightly offset any bullishness from the crude figure, other fact the gasoline was quite bearish. So overall, when I look at things like WTI crude, I actually don't think, I don't really put too much emphasis on the infantry numbers. I think the market's just assigning higher priority to other things at the moment like that bigger, broader macro picture rather than these individual weekly isolated infantry updates. Albeit if you get a big shock outlier in those numbers, sure, it could get a little bit interesting, but even then I still think it's a relatively temporary move if we did see one. And at the end of the day then, I'd just be looking at this market fairly technically, but then for price to be generally supported around these areas. And then so any aggressive dip might get bought into in that circumstance. Otherwise, in terms of news, it is pretty quiet. So let me just get up to speed on a couple of things. So first of all, on the vaccine front, this is a headline coming out with the main story from Bloomberg overnight. And it's probably only gonna be received in a more positive fashion. This is the fact that one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTep vaccine offers two thirds protection against coronavirus. Two doses of the vaccine saw protection rise to about 79% and 84% depending on age. So these numbers, of course, are much lower than the efficacy rates of, say, 90, 95% that we were seeing originally. But the point being is that a lot of these rollout strategies are dependent on and one that's being tactically deployed by the UK very successfully is just getting everyone the first shot because it gives them an appropriately high enough amount of immunization against contracting the virus or at least importantly, the fact that once you've had it, then your chance of hospitalization in ICU or death is basically nil, then that's a good thing to do. And what we've seen before in the lights of Astra and Oxford and their vaccine is that actually over time, from a three to 12-week period, that protection rate actually increases and then you get topped up with the second and it gets a little bit even better. So this is just another kind of similar narrative to that and goes to show then that tactically, it's probably then the deprudent approach should just get as many of these shots out in a first round quickly and then deal with the top ups later, not forgetting as well that most likely that, you know, this isn't a coronavirus COVID-19 thing that's just gonna go away after the next year or so given the ongoing long lasting nature of this to go through probably several iterations or mutations. Booster shots as well is another big thing going forward that is likely going to have to happen over the long term as well. In Italy, there's been a couple of things, nothing that really spook me, I'd say, to reverse the general optimism over Mario Draghi coming in looking to form a kind of caretaker government for the time being. Italy's five star movement said they'll will not join a Draghi government at all costs but denies their splitting over the matter after they delayed, basically they postponed an online vote yesterday. They will be voting on his outline program and they are waiting for Draghi to meet with Union. So they have already come out initially and said they would back Draghi but I guess this is just a postponement at this point should it manifest itself into something more meaningful, which I do not see happening but perhaps then you see a little bit of that optimism in Italy and that assets just fade slightly but again, I don't see that happening. Looking at the calendar then, the major things that we've got coming out today are as follows. So first of all, let me just get you up to speed with the Chinese CPI data year on year minus 0.3% expectations worth of flat. The PPI number plus 0.3% expected 0.4 is the first increase in fact in PPI in a year and that is quite meaningful actually. When I look at those CPI numbers, you're getting the reverse of what we've had for quite a long period of time. You remember CPI was running away to the upside and PPI was depressed during the initial phase of the pandemic as manufacturing activity kind of grounded to a halt but particularly food prices were elevating to the consumer price kind of basket particularly pork prices and now we're getting a little bit of the opposite and that does kind of fit then the ongoing kind of narrative coming out of China where economic data has been relatively stable for a period of time and that's what's helping some of the overall global picture at the moment particularly on the commodity side of things and that PPI number first increase in a year is a reflection of that. Doesn't have an impact as far as the market open is concerned this morning and certainly not a consequence as far as the dollar is concerned if you're looking at the FX markets but having a look elsewhere beyond that very quiet in the UK European morning so the emphasis is on this afternoon for the CPI and which is supposed to show a still tepid pace of inflation. I think it's important to remember people are getting very inflation obsessive at the moment and rightly so because we've seen the kind of bond market proxies of future inflation so things like the five year, five year break evens the tips and things like that so they have been accelerating to the fastest pace since 2014 as people start to price in the impact then they'd have to be the stimulus it's gonna have in this current low rate environment and with the improving vaccine kind of picture overall you should see the economy heat up over the course of the coming months since the second half of the year 30 year treasury yields eclipsed 2% this week that is the first time that they've done that since February of last year so around 12 months but again as I said that where we're at at the moment is this figure the year on year is expected at 1.5% the core year on year expected at the same figure a couple of things to be aware of here the upside surprise will likely only fuel flames of some of this recent views that markets have had about future inflation the figure in itself is likely to be buoyed by 10% increase in gasoline prices but I do think that the market is more aligned by the rate of price pressures over the coming months i.e. putting more emphasis on what does the speed and trajectory of this assumed increase in inflation look like rather than today's number being a silver bullet and all of a sudden the market start going frenetic I definitely don't think the latter's gonna happen and as I said earlier actually think that perhaps a more interesting impact value you might see in the market today at 1.30 is what if the inflation metric is actually a little bit soft so irrespective of the figure being lifted by 10% increasing gasoline prices that underlines stripping that out if the inflation pressures are very still coming from an incredibly low base or lower in materializes than what was expected or then all the further away we are from this kind of tightening cycle or reflation trade being warranted and does that send consequently see a bit of a pullback from some of those recent moves if that did happen I'd see that probably as a dollar weaker equity positive T note positive reaction effect should it materialize in that way so 1.30 is quite key you've then got the oil infantry numbers coming out of the DOE to follow up on the APIs at the regular time of 3.30 and then there is a couple of speakers so just a quick word on this first of all they're all happening in the afternoon and it's three kind of heads of the central banks Lagarde, Bailey and Jerome Powell Christine Lagarde speaking at the Economist that'd be at one and then just a quick word on Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell so Bailey is speaking at the mansion house text released at 5pm so for any of those new to markets this is a fairly notorious event happens on a yearly basis and it can act as a bit of a platform in a very similar fashion to Powell speaking of the economic club of New York so outside of the uniform interest rate meetings that they have throughout the year both these events have in the past acted as a potential opportunity for the central bank governor to say something noteworthy whether about the current economy or future monetary policy do I see that happening today? Well no I don't and the rationale behind that is mainly based on the fact that the central banks have only very recently communicated their kind of update their official update of what their view is on markets like Bank of England being just a few days ago last week with their latest projections so there's really no need for him to update nothing's really changed since that point there is a bit of pressure on Jerome Powell I would say coming the FT were talking about this in an article this morning which I shared on the Amphi live Twitter account and what it's talking about is the fact that the Fed at the moment are in ultra-loose monetary policy mindset almost further amplified by the fact that Janet Yellen now the Treasury but the idea here is that look in some shape or form not quite the 1.9 trillion perhaps but further US stimulus is coming and the vaccine rollout probably will accelerate and so therefore economic conditions are only going to improve based on that materializing and so at some point Powell has got to update what he thinks of the knock on ramifications are in his economic view and subsequent policy reaction and that is going to be an interesting period when he does that because obviously there's a removal of the punch bowl as they say is what can be very disruptive particularly with the market being a little frothy at the moment in terms of equities being particularly elevated so something to think about alright, going to leave it at that let you guys crack on wish you a good day ahead and I will see you in the Discord room on Amphi Live thanks very much


Once enemy countries now strengthened in Thais, the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda have met for the second time this week, Felix Cisikati and Paul Kagame presided over the signing of a number of agreements linking the two countries on Saturday afternoon. They had earlier met for talks and to assess the damage caused by recent earthquakes following the eruption of Mount Nira-Gongor volcano in Easten-Di-Arc-Kungo. Hello, hope you enjoyed the news. Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and don't forget to hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.


Please tell me a little bit about what you think of Dean P's scheme. I know we've heard so much about how multiple it is, but now that you've kind of gotten into it, what do you think about it? It's multiple. Really, just a lot of things that we could throw at you as we get going and then training camp and as maybe as we see more offenses and stuff, we'll learn exactly how we're going to attack those offenses using our different schemes that we have and we could use game in game out. But I hear great things about Dean. I'm definitely excited to work with Coach P. So everything they're throwing at us, we're all like sponges right now trying to get it right. I like that you use the word sponge because we actually were talking to Frank Bush the other day and he was talking about Michael and how far along he felt like he was. And he kind of attributed that to him being around you and Dion for all of last year. And did you see that from him that he was almost a sponge last year to y'all? Yeah, Mike always wants to get on the field any way he can. I told them, you know, me and Bo told them the best way to do that is to take whatever coaching and make sure you apply it to the game. So he's always trying to learn exactly what he needs to do, how to do it better. Always trying to become a better player. I think that goes across the whole linebacker. We're always trying to figure out what we can do better, especially with this new coaching staff, learn how to play with them and be more efficient. Thank you. D-1? Yeah, boy, what does multiple mean? Let's translate that for the football one-on-one people. It means, you know, depending on what the other team thinks they do well, I think we're going to have an answer for it. We're not always going to line up in the same defense week in week out. If we can be a kind of a Swiss Army knife as a unit, we can definitely have different faces week in week out and be able to play to our advantage instead of have to play to the offense. I think that's what that means. So as I said, we'll get more in the training camp and see exactly what it is, all the different tools that we have, but I think we'll have a lot of them. Okay.  It's definitely a little different. But, you know, we're always, whatever we need to do in order to win games around here is what we're going to do. Definitely working hard, trying to come together as a team. We got a lot of new faces in the building. And me personally, I'm just trying to, you know, become a linebacker that, you know, this scheme wants definitely learning, trying to improve, become a better linebacker in that way. But as always, every day you come in here, we've got to improve and learn and communicate with the within ourselves. Kelsey.  How much is there to learn in this defense?  How different is this defense in terms of how much you have to learn? There are a lot of similar concepts, but we might play some things a little bit different, different nuances within each defense. So it's kind of breaking the old habits and getting on a new one. That's probably the hardest part for me. But conceptually, concepts, when you can piece them all together, they can be similar, depending on the look. But then there are different ways to play each defense that, you know, this linebacker coach might teach, this defensive coordinator might teach that you kind of have to break the habits of the old one.  What are you trying to achieve this year? First, I want to get back on the field. And that's, you know, becoming a linebacker, these guys want, and then kind of build off of that, keep my confidence up and kind of just keep earning my respect out there. I think that's really what I play for, not really accolading stuff.  And then when, when as many games as possible, that's what I, that's what I want to do. Zach. Hey, my friend, was there a moment talking about confidence? Was there a moment a year ago, a play, a game where you knew after said play that you belong in this league? I belong to a league after my rookie year. During my rookie year, I got a lot of opportunity to play when Dion got hurt, unfortunately, but you know, I use that as a way opportunity for me to really see that I belong in a league. And that was kind of soaking wet as a linebacker. That was my first rep, which is a linebacker. That said, you know, I can improve on this, but there's definitely a spot for me in a league if I just keep improving every year. So second year, obviously, Dion and Dre came back, played well, I was behind them, but I kept my confidence up. And then third year, I got more opportunities to really get comfortable back there. And this year is going to be, you know, a lot of the same or got to, you know, re prove myself to the coaching staff and everything. And then when I get my opportunities really shine out there and play with the confidence, I need you. And with Dante moving back to a linebacker position, you guys teaming up together. I think you can wreck some havoc out there. That's the goal of the whole defense, no matter who's back there. Dante is going to come in ready to go for sure. And as I said, or as Coach Pete always says, we're going to play a lot of multiple things and we're going to have a lot of people Russian. So keep your blisters coming from all directions and wreak havoc. Yeah. Thank you. Also, we have time for a couple of follow up story. Anything? Yeah, just one more for you. You're talking about wanting to become the linebacker that this staff wants. What does that mean for you? For me, I want to make plays in the ball. I always want to make plays in the ball, get my hands in the ball, get a lot of tackles, but really become a leader. I think that's my next step. You know, obviously reprove myself to defense, re-earn my trust, become a leader of the defense. I think that Coach Pete, you know, Coach Smith, they're all kind of influencing me to do that. I think that's my next step as a football player is, you know, really bring a lot of people along. Not just through example, but, you know, with words and stuff too. Okay. We got one for Dila and then we'll do one for Kelsey. Yeah. What do you think? What do you think will be some of the keys to lead that'll lead you to that leadership role and, you know, first playing good on the field is probably the first part. But what's the second part? Yeah. What's the second part about that? Yeah. Hold myself accountable and then really taking that step to, you know, realize that people do want to hear from me. I'll talk to a lot of people one-on-one individually. I always got my tidbit and people look to what I say and take that, you know, real passionately and stuff. So really, you know, step out of my comfort zone and be the voice that a lot of people need back there. But as I said, I'll have to make sure I approve myself, accountability, all that stuff, but make sure it comes naturally and not like me being a raw, raw guy or something that I'm not. Thank you. Kelsey. You've talked about how Coach Pease has said you guys are going to bring pressure from everywhere. How do you feel about yourself as a past rusher and are you comfortable on that role if you're the one that's called upon to do that? Yeah. We got to rush a lot from the linebacker edition last year, especially with injuries and stuff. So I think we got a good introduction to it. I think, you know, having it within the defense, certainly we're definitely going to keep getting better at it. And if I'm not good at it, I'm going to get better at it. No doubt about it. That's just kind of the way I am. So whatever Coach wants is what I'm going to do. I think I can be good at whatever he wants me to do.