What is up everyone? Welcome to my analysis of the top 5 quarterbacks. In the upcoming NFL Draft class, I'm Blading Kirk. Welcome to the FanDuel, YouTube, and Twitch, depending on where you're watching it. If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I posted my top 5 quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL Draft class. A lot of debate around who those guys are. My top 5, No. 1 Caleb Williams, No. 2 Drake May, No. 3 Jaden Daniels, No. 4 Bonix, No. 5 Michael Panix. I've bounced around in that 4 through 6, 4 through 7 area. I do think there is a pretty big drop off after the first two. I do think Daniels is better than the others, but I don't think by much. But yeah, that's kind of all we're going to talk about today. I kind of envision this just being almost like a fireside chat. People ask questions, we talk, we have some fun, we just talk ball. That's how it will go. I have some of the numbers pulled up. I have some of the tape pulled up. We can kind of look at whatever anyone wants. I have access to anything. But yeah, how's everyone doing today? Depending on where you are in the world right now, it could be a pretty nice place. In Ohio, it's kind of hit or miss, it feels like. We bounce around between summer and winter. Every once in a while we have a 70 degree day, every once in a while we have a 30 degree day. But today's not so bad. Today it's like mid to high 50s. I got to go outside a little bit, just chill, sit in my yard. It doesn't get much better than that sometimes. Sometimes. Key word. But yeah, I think we could just start up with some of the top guys. Again, my number one guy is of course Caleb Williams, and that seems to be kind of the consensus. I know there's some discussion around whether or not it's Drake May is number one, whether or not Jayden Daniels is number one. I know a lot of people have their varying opinions on who the top quarterback is. But I think it's pretty clearly Caleb Williams. And when I think about why, I think there's kind of a handful of things that quarterbacks have to do in the NFL. I think they have to be able to avoid sacks consistently. I think they have to be, that mostly comes down to pocket presence and how you handle pressure. And I think they have to be able to hit difficult throws. Those are like the two main things where if you can do those, you look across the NFL and all the best quarterbacks all do those at a high level. Mahomes, Lamar, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, all of these guys can hit throws with high levels of difficulty and they can handle pressure well and avoid sacks. Obviously some guys have better offensive lines than others. I'm not looking at anyone in particular Cincinnati, but it's definitely Caleb Williams. Caleb is a guy where I think you just kind of have to look at the off, you have to look at the games a little bit because it's very much an interesting watch to say the least. If you haven't gotten a chance to just sit down and watch Caleb Williams, it's definitely worth taking a look at. But it's always interesting. I get, I'm always a little thrown back by it because the offense is just very weird. If you're not ready for it, you're going to be confused the whole time. Not even confused. Confused is the wrong word. It's just not going to make a lot of sense. I'm going to transition over here. We'll take a look at some Caleb Williams. This is Caleb Williams versus Notre Dame. They run a lot of spread offense, obviously. 2x2 look. You see some too high safeties. Corners are off. And you'll notice kind of right away they just run a lot of routes that, first of all, tend to just be, in this case, this is probably the most structured offense we'll see all day. Just kind of deep curls on the inside and hitches on the outside. That's probably the most structured we'll see, but in this play, the most jarring thing is the pressure. Immediately his offensive line crumbles. He's got pressure from his right. He's got his line collapsing from his left, so he has to slide up, make the guy from the right miss, roll out to his right, nowhere to go with the football at this point. You could argue maybe he can hit this guy here, but there's just someone sitting on top of that. So what is the difference in what he got? A yard versus his guy maybe gets 2 or 3. Is that really moving the needle? Probably not. And you can see the end zone angle here is kind of how the pressure forms. He's looking to the left. That's where he wants to go. Feels the pressure on his left. Knows he's not going to be able to deliver there. Wants to come back right, obviously. Can't just turn and throw because he's got pressure there. Makes him miss and there's just nothing to be found here once he starts scrambling. But the moral of that play is obviously you want a guy who can make those guys miss. And the key here is just how comfortable he looks when he does it. Here's the end zone angle again. Just look how calmly he slides up and evades. A lot of guys that you'll see in this class, they panic, their head darts back and forth. And even if they can get away, they're not entirely sure what to do after. Caleb doesn't have any options here. You can see he's still looking to throw. Jayden Daniels would have absolutely ran this up this lane right here. And he probably would have gotten a pretty good chunk of yards. But if you're looking for... What's the word people use? Quarterbacky? Caleb is more in tune with looking down the field and making those throws. That's another very structured route set here. This ball is out before he even hits the top of his break. That's crazy. It's not that crazy. I'm dick-riding.  It's a really good throw. The timing on that is really nice. It's very rare to see from this USD offense though. It's something that I've noticed a lot that they struggle with timing. They struggle with structured offense. It does feel a lot like they're just going out there playing a lot of backyard ball. But this is very well timed, kind of back-to-back trying to hit these hitches. But Caleb clearly saw something that he liked here. He got the corner opening, or maybe not a corner, but the DB opening his hips. He knows his receiver is hitching up here. Good throw, good catch. He's got a nice window too because of the stunt. We'll probably see that in the end zone angle. Sees the stunt. As soon as he stunts over, he lets this ball fly. It's just kind of a perfect medley of things that went right on that play. Little RPO floats that one. This is a good play by the Notre Dame defense. Maybe you argue he should have just taken the sack here. Or maybe you argue the tight end should have kept running. Like why does he stop? But he probably just expected to catch this. Almost like a screen more than anything else. You can't hand this off here, right? You got three guys there. He holds that pocket for as long as he can. You can't hand this off here, no chance. You could take a sack. What down and distance is it? It's first in ten. You could take a sack here. This is probably not Caleb's best rep ever. Floats that one a little bit, but I thought the process was probably right. Make the tackle, Caleb. What's wrong with you? Now he's QB4. Can't tackle, not my quarterback. See from the end zone here. He's like, I'm trying not to take a sack. Floats that one over the tight end. Picked off. I thought the process was fine there. It's an RPO. Made the right read. And at that point you just have to throw it. I'm not going to be mad at that. Again, a lot of guys would hold on to that ball a lot longer. Some of them might get stripped, but that's just a good play by Notre Dame's defense. Look at the ball back here. Once again. No one open. Routs are locked. Got a little bit of pressure up the middle. Let's it fly. Honestly, defense probably gets away with a pass and her fear in here. There. Okay, the flag comes out. Yeah, but I mean, clamped up here. Clamp number four down here is clamped. Clamped up here, clamped here, clamped here, clamped here. I mean, no one is open at all. It's got pressure up the middle, but they do get the flag. So a new set of downs now. There's Caleb. You like the running ability. Here it is. Right. Again, you know, people are going to be like, well, Jayden Daniels would have just burst through that hole. Probably, but, you know, Caleb's not trying to take these big hits that Daniels takes. Caleb is a fantastic athlete. He's just smart. He's not trying to get killed out there. So let's see what he's looking at. Yeah, it's just QB draw. It's kind of hard to tell where his head's at from this angle, but yeah, it looks like he's going to throw that. Throw that screen there. Like a little bubble screen, and then he just takes off. Get to a few yards. Oh, did they like zoom in? More pressure on his right. Floats it back left.  Maybe you think he could fit it in here or there. That this would be a really crazy throw if he made that. Or maybe you think he should run it here. That would be valid criticism that Daniels would definitely run this. I was like, I'll just go. You can get the first down yourself pretty easily. He probably could. He probably could. Pocket presence. Crazy. And there he goes running. That's what you want to see, right? Running is the last resort. I mean, how many times have we seen now these receivers cannot get an ounce of separation out here. There's also a flag up there. Maybe a hold of something. Is that even a like what's going on? Was that a flag or did the coach drop something? Yeah, you see he's got no one open. No one even close. Clamped, clamped. And this is what I'm talking about with like horribly structured offense. They got two routes that are both heavily covered in the exact same spot. So even if like this guy wasn't like even if one of these guys was a little more open, they still wouldn't be that open because they're in the same spot. Like one guy could guard both of these players. So neither of them are open. He's not open. They've got routes. They got a route over here in the flat. That's not open. He's got two guys coming at him over here.  Looks like he gets the first. He just feels this really well though. He does. Beautiful feel. There they go. Finally, they get an open route. This is what they've got over here. What kind of route? He's got kind of like a sluggo. And then he like bends it really far out. Like trips up the DBs there. Jesus man. They're making the hip drop illegal. They need to make this illegal. Is that targeting? Could that be considered targeting? I don't know. Probably not. Yeah, they finally get an open guy here. He wins at the top. Caleb finds him. They clear out the demand coverage. They clear out the middle of the field. Caleb finds his guy. Good throw. Good catch. They finally get an open receiver. Just a little quick action here. Nothing fancy. Nothing too exciting there. Nice catch. Nice catch. He just kind of lets this fly right away. Wow, that is a really nice catch. Number 15. Yeah, I mean, not a super open throw, but give your guy a chance there. They might get him for off into fastener here, honestly. I think they did. Another penalty. What's that, the fourth one this game? Now they're back to the 15. Just another quick throw into the flats. He almost got killed. And now you see the issue, right? It's like they really don't give Caleb like ball out opportunities in this offense. Because no one gets open when they run real routes. And then, I mean, you could ask him to run every single play, but like, why? He's just going to get hurt. There we go. Open receiver. That's a good concept, right? And really, this is a really good read. Quick read by Caleb, right? See the corner blitz. And all you're doing when you see that blitz is you're just replacing it with the ball. So as soon as his guy was settled, he was throwing that, right? Because you could have probably found... I don't even know if you could have found something else. Maybe you could have found number two behind, but I think as soon as he saw that blitz, he was letting it fly, right? That linebacker has a pretty good distance to get out there. Yeah, as soon as the corner blitz came, he was replacing. That's pretty easy. There's kind of option stuff. They might have gotten him for a legal man downfield here. We'll see. Taking a shot here. He hung on, but he got squeezed so far to the sideline that he never really had a chance. So why Theo says it all the time. Deep ball accuracy is a wide receiver stat. This is why he says that. Because if this receiver... Look where he starts this route. I get it's a fade route, but he's top of the numbers, basically. Right? Top maybe middle of the numbers, but he's at the numbers. That means he's got a solid 10 yards to the sideline. And he eats up eight of it just trying to stack this corner. So he never really gave himself a shot for this play to really be catchable. Caleb gave him a good shot though. It's not a bad throw. He also got hit. Rare under center play for this USC offense. Breaks a tackle and gets out of bounds. RPO look. Heck of a throw. This is high difficulty throw stuff that I'm talking about with Caleb. Because look how he releases this ball, side arm, into a window that really doesn't exist. But he has to throw it that way because he's got guys in his face. Right? And he's just trying to whip it between him. I don't even think the receiver should have caught this. This window does not exist. Right? He's got guys in his face. There's a guy over top. He's got, what, two guys in front of him? This corner rotating back. Let's see if we can get a, or like a linebacker rotating back. There really isn't a window to make this throw because it has to be out instantly. The throw has to be out instantly. It's an RPO, right? Throw has to be out instantly. Got to catch that. You want to see Caleb athleticism. That's the thing. If you like Daniels, man, Caleb does all the same things except he's smarter and he's, he actually throws over the middle. Like smarter, better arm, higher difficulty level of throws. This comes back for a penalty it looks like. But they're saying if you're enamored by the athleticism that Jaden Daniels offers, Caleb's is, Caleb's is every bit as good. And I think that's pretty clear and obvious. Another drop. Right? So what, what have we learned? I mean, we've got, we've got how many, we've got how many plays now where, we've got how many plays now where Caleb Williams is throwing and he's got guys that aren't open or that are dropping passes or he'll throw it into a contested window. Like they, they hit that fade route earlier or they were trying to hit that fade route earlier and the receiver ate up all of his sideline space. Right? Again, look where he starts. Right here at the numbers. He's got 10 yards to the sideline. He eats up eight yards of it right away. That's just like an impossible, like unless you're throwing to Malik neighbors or Roma Dunesay, no receiver's making this play. That's really, that's really all that comes down to. I think, I think Caleb Williams is pretty easy. Kevin, welcome. Good to see you, man. I think Caleb is pretty easy quarterback one. I think the pocket presence is elite. I think he's just as good of an athlete as Daniels. Though Daniels might be a more aggressive runner, right? And that's kind of what makes him so dangerous is that he's willing to sacrifice his body for the play. But it's risky and he doesn't throw over the middle. Caleb does. I like, if you love Jaden Daniels, Caleb Williams is every bit as good as Jaden Daniels on top of. He's smarter and throws over the middle. We will also take a look at Drake May, because if Drake, because that's the thing is like, well, Daniel's a better athlete than May. He is. That's about all. We will watch, I'm trying to find which game I want. I might do Clemson. It's actually interesting because in my top five I have, I have Bonix and I have, who's at my front door? No one. I have a notification that someone's at my front door, but it was nothing. But here's the interesting thing. I have Bonix and Michael Penix above JJ McCarthy in my top five. And they're actually the only two guys in this class that have a pretty good pressure to sacrate, something under 10%. But again, we watch Caleb Williams and you see how infrequently his receivers get open. The pressure that he faces, it's really tough for him out there, especially with some of the RPO stuff they do. A lot of times when he's releasing that ball, he doesn't have a choice but to have a guy in his face. It's just like the way this offense is ran. It's a very bizarre offense. I've never been a fan of it all year. It's just very concerning that they put Caleb Williams in such a difficult position. Every single game, it feels like the exact opposite of the type of offense you would want your quarterback to be in. But I legitimately think his job will get easier when he goes to Chicago. Kevin, you're scared for the commanders making the wrong decision. They most likely will. Let's talk about Drake May, because I think that's who they should take. I think Caleb Williams will be gone. He almost certainly will. I think they should take Drake May. There's rumors of Jayden Daniels, but I'm a big fan of May. I think his pocket presence is very cool, calm, collected. Some people have concerns with his accuracy, and I get if you're enamored with the athleticism of Daniels. May is very athletic, maybe not to the extent that Daniels is, but May is very athletic. He's got a really big arm. He reads the field pretty well. Look how quickly he gets to this. His pocket presence is very clean.  That's a pretty accurate throw. He's got a guy in his passing lane right here. He's able to fire over him and still hit his guy in stride. That's a well-timed, very accurate throw. It's not that he's incapable of it at all. This is where you'll see the lack of accuracy right here. I think part of this is mostly a bad route.  Maybe you say he should have just thrown it somewhere else, but he's got a guy coming on his right side. Yeah, maybe not the most accurate throw, but the receiver does a terrible job of separating here throughout his route. All of them do. Again, this is the thing that Caleb Williams and Drake May played with by far the worst supporting cast of any of the guys that we're talking about, right? McCarthy, Nix, Penix, Daniels. All of those guys played with potentially first-round pick weapons. You're just not quite seeing that, right?  You're seeing off of the Lions that are allowing a lot of pressure. He kind of got crushed there, but he's a big guy, so he just kind of eats it. I don't know if it's in this game where you see some really nice pocket maneuvering. This is a good one here. And again, just like guys that aren't really getting open.  He might have gotten away with that 36. You might have gotten away with that one, man. You might have, because he kind of had you a little bit. Yeah, but there isn't a lot of separation with these receivers. Outside guy is getting absolutely manhandled at the line of scrimmage. Just absolutely disrespected. May has pressure on his right, but he's able to get, what's that, five yards there? He's just trying to find a passing window at this point. Everything's congested up in the middle, so he's like, okay, let me slide right a little bit. Number three leaks around.  I wouldn't even say that I would consider May a pocket passer per se. He is a dual threat guy. I just think he has better pocket presence than Daniel's. That's an accurate deep ball. Where is this? So this is a better route by the receiver. He's lined up only probably five or six yards from the sideline. He gets a little close, but he has enough separation to where he's able to bend it back inside. This is a good ball by May. Just steps up, lets it fly. Not even really a drop. How many steps does he take? Was that one, two, step up, let it fly? That's pretty effortless. That's pretty effortless arm talent there. What's that go, 40? That's an effortless 40. If I threw that, I'd have to heave. He made that look easy. They didn't even try to really sell that play action. Maybe not the most accurate ball. It's hard to tell with the glare where that landed. But it looks like it landed at the receiver's feet. But again, not the sexiest route in the world. This is what a sail route and he's really letting this fade away. He's got, if he breaks down and makes this cut hard here, he's got a couple yards of separation. But he rounds this so far into the DB. I really don't know how much I can blame May. Does this, does that hit him in the hands? I thought that might have fallen short at first, but I think that might have hit him in the hands anyway. Drake May's arm strength is very top tier. But him and Williams have very, very impressive arms. But I don't think that alone is what's putting him into these conversations. I think it's that combined with his athleticism, combined with his pocket presence. At least that's what it is for me. I won't speak for everyone else. I have PFF up for stats and stuff, but I could pull up their big board and see what they say about him. Light on his feet, flick of the wrist, speed, out of structure accuracy, middle of the field pass. I think this one is pretty big because that's something Daniel just doesn't do. Throwing over the middle of the field. It's just like, it's a little thing, but it's important. When you have quarterbacks, as a quarterback, you cannot, in the NFL as a quarterback, you cannot have areas on the field where you can't throw. This is why I don't put Daniels or McCarthy into the same conversation as the top two guys. McCarthy is especially bad because he struggles to hit throws outside the numbers. That's inexcusable. We'll watch a game for McCarthy, too, if we have time. You'll see. He won't sail on. He'll under-throw an out-route. Quick outs, like five-yard outs, gotta hit those. Those need to be routine. Then you have a guy like Daniels who refuses to throw over the middle. There's a game, I think, against Alabama where he breaks off a long run, but he could have had, I think it was, neighbors over the middle and he just doesn't hit them. Personally, I would rather you let neighbors take that than yourself. It's just more Daniels, or not more Daniels, more Drake May here. Pretty easy throw, wide open. Does he bobble that? Please tell me he doesn't bobble that. Does he bobble this? He bobbles it, just a touch, man. Okay, this is my favorite Drake May clip. I love this. This is my favorite Drake May clip. We're actually gonna skip ahead, so this is a touchdown.  Disgusting. Disgusting. What's that? 40 yards off his back foot? Yeah, man. Yeah, man. Uncorked. Uncorked. Just so filthy. He's got a guy in his face, a guy coming on his left, and this is where I'm talking about the feel, right? This is a play where I think you'll see guys like McCarthy panic a little bit. I think Daniels could make this play. I think Daniels could make this play. I don't know if he would tuck and run, but there's a play I know that McCarthy has had where he's had a very similar instance where a guy has come free off the edge, and he kind of panics, drops his eyes a little bit. You know, he starts to get a little bit of happy feet. Drake may very calm, very calm, very composed, and just lets it fly. Very patient. That's what I love to see. He'll let it fly again here. I can't, not an open, not an open guy, but is anyone open really at the time that he's throwing this ball, maybe the tight end, but not really.  Wish his receivers would separate a little bit more. Here's a quick throw. Got all this space here. Unless this slot guy is going to really break on this quickly, which he doesn't, you're hitting that, you're hitting that right away, and that's exactly what he does. Just catch throw. Pretty easy stuff. What happened here? Did this get tipped? Yeah, it did. The only concern with May that I really have, like my only big concern, is his release is kind of slow, and I don't know if we'll see it here necessarily, but there is a play, I think, in this game where you'll really get to see that impact him calm. Doesn't quite get the first down, but here's, you can see he's not slow, man. He can move a little bit if you, he can definitely move if you need him to. There's more of that smooth pocket presence, changing stuff at the line here. Got a stunt on the right side by 13, kind of wins. Number seven, pretty handle, pretty much handles this guard, makes both of them miss.  He's just like, plant go, right? Plant go. Right, he plants that right foot and he's off, right?  I don't know what, I don't know what this is. I don't know what this, what is this skirmish going on up here? What is this? And Clemson guy wants a penalty, honestly, he probably deserves it. I don't know how the ref doesn't see this, he's like, they almost cost him that play. Oh my God, if someone doesn't get open. Okay, oh, this is it. Okay, we'll get close here. So he wants to hit this throw right here, right? This is what he's looking for, which he has enough room, right? Because the DB's kind of on his back shoulder at this point. If you throw it right here, he can probably, he can probably kept this pretty easily. We'll get to the end zone angle though. So this is what we're talking about with his release is kind of slow.  It's incomplete, so it's not a huge deal. But if he was just a little, if he was just a tick faster with being able to like boom, boom. You see new NFL tackle band.  I can't believe they banned that, especially, like, regardless of your opinion on the actual hip drop tackle, the players didn't want it to get banned. If the NFL PA is like, yeah, no, we would prefer that you keep this allowed. It is in the players, the players have decided that it is in their best interest. And again, these aren't like high school college, because these are grown men. They're like, wife and kids, grown men. They're like, we have decided that this is what is best for the players. And the owners say, hmm, no. What? Like, that's so crazy. That is so crazy. The fact that the owners went so against the players' wishes. They're unanimously too. That's really what's insane to me. And I get they're trying to like prevent injuries, but tackling from behind, it's hard. It's hard to go and tackle someone from behind without what it's the classification they gave. You have to, uh, hold on, hip drop. I just spelled hip. Hip drop tackle. Um, I'm trying to see where they listed the qualifications for something to get. I can't find it. That's going to be annoying. But, uh, it's going to be harder. Like, without having to, without being able to like, unweight someone, it's going to be harder to tackle someone from behind. Not impossible. Definitely not impossible. But you're going to see a lot of, probably a lot of tight end execution, a lot of slot execution this year, just to try and exploit that as much as they can. Uh, I think, I think it's a very lame play by the owners. Again, not even from, not even from the perspective of, well, what are, what are they supposed, how are they supposed to tackle? It's from the perspective of it is against the players' wishes. I think that's very lame. Let's see. We might, I think I've, I think I've covered kind of everything that I've wanted to from Drake May. I think it, like, I think I've got, I think we've seen just kind of all I needed to see. Like, you've seen him miss a couple of throws. But again, a lot of these routes aren't particularly open. Um, you've also seen his pocket presence be very nice. High difficulty throws. Slow release. And it's just because he winds, it's just because he winds it so far back. And it's like, it's not that slow, but it's a tick slow. And it's just because he comes back so far. Right, if you watch, like, Rodgers, right, Rodgers doesn't pull the ball this far back. Right. Um, Rodgers is more, Rodgers is like pushing the ball. Just like, but he's got effortless arm strength. So I'm not going to, I'm not going to sit here and bash it. That's got to be a catch. That's a good throw. You got hit, but you got to, you got to hold on to that. Have to. Um, who do I want to look at next? My next guy would be, we'll look at Daniels. Where is the Daniels tape? There is Jayden Daniels. Should we watch Arizona State Jayden Daniels? Um, I want to watch the Bama game. I think that's the, the, I think that shows the best collection of good and bad is Jayden Daniels versus Bama. And you'll see, you'll see probably all of it in like the first 15 plays. Um, look, look how, okay, this is exactly what I was talking about. Okay, he takes the snap here. He's got pressure on his left, pressure up the middle, makes them miss. Awesome. You've got a receiver here that's about to be wide open. If this were Drake May or Caleb Williams, they would hit that guy. They would absolutely hit that guy. Daniels tucks and runs, gets a few yards, but Drake May and Caleb Williams would absolutely try and hit that receiver breaking behind. And in the, the short amount of tape that we watched from, from May and Dan, from May and Williams, they, they did not, they did not ever have receivers. They had receivers that wide open. Not one time and on the first play, Daniels has a receiver crossing his face. And really he could have hit, he could have hit this throw right now. If his eyes were up, but his eyes drop as soon as he starts to feel this pressure and he's like, all right, I'm running. Even though he's got a guy right there and he's got another guy right there and he's not past the line of scrimmage yet. I'm like, like Caleb Williams and Drake May, they're, they are super athletic, very capable runners. I think Caleb, if he wanted to, could be just as ex, like he could be putting up just as many big time run plays as Daniels does. The difference is he keeps his eyes up and he's trying to throw it most of the time. But, you know, Daniels does make some, he does make some good throws too. That's a very catchable ball, right? D.B. has outside, outside leverage, he puts this inside. That's a good throw, needs to be caught. Just a little check down. Here we go. Deep ball. Look how open he is, man! He's got a really, he's got a really great deep ball too. Not quite as effortless as May or Williams, but still very, very good. And the neighbors tracks this, tracks this really well. Quite tell how, that probably could be caught. That's really good defense though. That's really good defense. That's just kind of three step drop. One, two, three, step up, let it go. Yeah. The thing that I'm, I'm not really worried about guys like being able to read the full field. I think that's an overstated necessity when it comes to quarterbacks coming out of college. Like they didn't have Cam Newton reading the full field. I'm just not really worried about it. I'm worried about like, can you handle pressure? Like what, what are you doing when things break down? Can you hit all levels of the field? Can you make every throw in the field? That's really the stuff that concerns me mostly. This will be a great run. He's going to get clobbered though.   He is a very explosive runner. This is a play that I always criticize him for coming up. I legitimately think the best comparison for Jaden Daniels, Jaden Daniels could be Lamar. He could be, but I think more than likely he's Fields. And I think you look at like what separates Lamar from Fields is Lamar's better pocket presence. Lamar hits the weird arm angles that Fields doesn't. Like Fields has a good deep ball. Fields is a great runner. I think Daniels could come in and have a Fields-esque rookie year. They could be the best rushing offense, you know, whoever takes them. They could have the best rushing offense in football. But we might get to like two, three years from now and be like, man, did he really improve much? It's not even going to be a matter of like, did he improve? It's going to be a matter of like, he could never do those things and you shouldn't draft guys based on what they can't do or what they could learn, but more like what they can do. This is a throw I always feel like, I always feel like Jaden Daniels read this wrong. This guy's fading. This guy's going this way. You've got leverage here, right? He's got upfield leverage. The safety is so far back. There's 10 yards of separation here and he's still running vertical, right? I've always felt like this throw that he has not released yet, by the way. Like he still has time to make up his mind. This throw should have always gone here and instead he gives a very risky throw. He still hasn't released this. He's starting to, but to me, this is the open look. I get what he sees here that, oh, his hips are open this way. Maybe I can lead him and get a touchdown here, but this just feels like the more open look to me. Man, he's so open. He's so obviously open. Also, like also, if you were going for that touchdown play, I would think you would want to lead him a little bit more.   He's got a good arm, really good arm, but he's not quite effortless arm strength. I don't know. Maybe it's a nitpick. I get what he saw there, but I really do get what he saw here. Like at this point, you're like, oh, he's got leverage. What's bro? So does he. And I think this one's easier. I think this is like the easier, smarter play. And so maybe it's a nitpick because again, I do get what he saw here. And I just said I don't want to judge too harshly on like reading the field. But that's, that's a, I thought that was a fairly easy decision making flaw to point out. Um, yeah, I mean, that's, this isn't really on him. This is just like quick, quick throw, not open. Trying to pick up a fourth and short, yeah, fourth and inches. And Bama makes a great play defensively. All right, I think he gets crushed on this play. Maybe. No. Okay. One of the rare times he gets, he dips out of bounds. There's, there's, you'll see him get clobbered in this game sooner or later. I don't hate him tucking this, but again, this is some of the best coverage we'll see against LSU and Caleb Williams never had a guy this open in the, in the game we watched him play. Like they never had this much separation. It's crazy. Same with UNC against Clemson with Drake May. He does a good job evading like in terms of like getting away from the pressure. Great job.  Yeah. I mean, that's a, that's a fantastic play. No doubt all day, all day to throw, man. Oh my God. This is the, this is the ridiculous thing, man. All right. We've got all day to throw. You've got options. If you are, if you are able to anticipate, you have options here. If you anticipate this throw, neighbors is going to be open. Right? He doesn't. If you anticipate the throw, Brian Thomas Jr. He's one-on-one. Great, great, deep ball contested catch guy. Give him a shot here. Again, Caleb never had options this easy. Like not even remotely, not even remotely this easy. Drake May never has options this easy. And he still ends up finding neighbors, but like, it's very late in the down. And neighbors is open multiple times, well before this ball actually comes out. And like, so, I'm looking at the times where this ball could have come out. Drop, drop. Now. And now. Both times to neighbors and the second time also to Brian Thomas Jr. You've got the yarn, like, he's got all day to throw, man. So much time. Center finally loses, but like, he had all freaking day and they completed it, but I think that's, I don't think that's a very impressive play by Daniels there. This is a bad throw. Again, all types of time throws it behind. Actually, I will give him some credit here. I think he anticipated 11. I think that's 11. Brian Thomas Jr. I think he anticipated him to settle to like sit right here. Right. Instead, he kept like shuffling, shuffling, shuffling. And I think that, I think that was a miscommunication. I don't know if I'll give him a knock so much on that throw. I've seen Drake, May, and Caleb Williams make worse throws. This is happy feet. I do not. You're bouncing a lot, shuffling a lot. No one's super open. You got a guy here you could hit. You got a guy in the flats you could hit. Like Thomas Jr. again. Is that 11 or is that 1? I can't quite tell. I think that's Brian Thomas Jr. again. Looks like he's going to be open here. And instead, you kind of, he gets crushed on this play. Shuffling, shuffling, shuffling. This is a play where I would almost like you to, this is a play that Lamar Jackson would make. Right. This is Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has made this play. Actually, not quite this exact throw. It would be hard going to your, like throwing it across to your left. But I'm going to pull it up actually. YouTube Lamar Jackson jump throw. Jump pass. It's against Kansas City. There we go. Lamar Jackson has literally made this play. Right. Slides up in the pocket. He's got guys in his face. And he jumps over them to make the throw. Given the throw is wide open. But that is a throw that is difficult to make. That, you know, you have a guy here, you have a guy here. They're not impossible throws to make. But when Daniels is under pressure, it feels like he just doesn't keep his eyes downfield. Because he has options. He has better options than Caleb Williams and Drake May has had. That's my biggest concern. I don't think he handles pressure particularly well. I don't think he's a bad player. I think he's a really good athlete. That's a good throw. Wide open but good throw. Right. Because it's quick. There's no hesitation really. He sees it and he lets it rip. It's a good play. But when things break down, when he's under pressure, he wants to run. I get it.  That's a quick throw. Good job there. I think I've covered most of it. This is a good one. That's a pretty good throw under pressure. That's kind of my synopsis on Jaden Daniels. I just don't think he handles pressure particularly well. Because his instinct is always run. He's really good at it. But when you have guys that are open, and especially because I talk about Drake May and Caleb Williams, their jobs are probably going to get easier when they go to the NFL. Right? If they go to Chicago and Washington, is the level of offensive line going to get worse? Probably not. The receivers are absolutely only going to get better. DJ Moore, Kenan Allen, Cole Comet for the Bears, and then you got Terry McLaurin in Washington. They're definitely going to be in better situations than they were in college. Jaden Daniels might not be in a better situation unless he goes to Minnesota. That's the only way I could think he's... Because he'd be thrown to Jefferson. Right? But if he goes to the Patriots, worse situation, he goes to... Trying to think about the Giants, that's a worse situation. It's concerning that he's making these mistakes with this kind of talent around him. He's not going to have this kind of open... He's not going to have these big open windows to relax and potentially miss on. He's not going to have all this time to throw. Uh... We'll take another quick look at someone else. I want to look at McCarthy because I know people like him. Oh, what game? Oh, man. Michigan played some really great teams. I could do Bama. I could do Ohio State. I could do Penn State. Bama's probably the best defense on. Did they play Iowa this year? Did they play Iowa this year? They did not. Okay. I knew they played them last year. I couldn't remember if they played them this year. All right. Oh, God, this quality is pixelated. Oh, man. This might not be watchable. Oh, my God. We'll skip ahead and see. Okay, so it gets a little bit better here. Um, this is just, like, unwatchable. Yeah, first play is a pick, by the way. Um... Or almost a pick, as foot was out of bounds. I remember that. They ruled it a pick on the field, and then I think they overturned it. Yeah. I mean, it's just an immediate boot action, right? So what concept are they running here? It looks... Like it might be some variation of flood. Something similar. Anyway. Let's hope the next clip is less pixelated. Okay. So it's just the first clip. JJ has two sub-3,000 years. You know what? I don't want to just... I don't want to just sit in, like, bash on... on all the quarterbacks, because, like... There's a world where McCarthy could be good. I know Brett Coleman was tweeting about how he went back and watched... He rewatched some of McCarthy last year, compared to this game, and then compared to his pro day, and he feels like McCarthy is going through, like, a retool with his mechanics. Which would be good, because his mechanics aren't particularly great. Um, and I think it's partially why he struggles to hit throws outside the numbers. Um, and if he can go to a really good situation, maybe he could see some success. I just don't know who's going to take that shot. Like, who's going to be... Who's going to be the team in a good situation? Yeah, man, McCarthy's our guy. Like, a team in a good situation that needs a quarterback. Who's doing that? I don't know. That doesn't need other position. Like, a little screened. I'll throw out some zip on it, though. Let's see. Calling their plays at the line here. I don't want to call it before I'm seeing this, but... Okay, because, yeah, he starts out looking to his left. Oh, if you had just stuck to your left, I get why he came off of it. Because he got j... No! I don't. You should have stuck on your left. I think. Because, man, he was open. Because I'm like, this ball was late, but he starts on his left and works back to his right. Um... But I would have just stuck left. I feel like you came off the left really early. And your guy won. Let me see the end zone angle, because maybe there was a guy in this throwing lane. It doesn't look like it. It's not a super... That's kind of nitpicky. I don't want to bash on it too much. Had guys there. Got batted. That had some zip on it, too. Just quick throw into the flat. Got a block. McCarthy's got some moves, too. He can run a little bit. Look at this block by 20. He's not even going full speed until the ball is snapped. It's not like it's a really fast motion. He just comes peeling off. Like he's just trotting, trotting, and bang! That's a great block. That's a really good throw. This is a pretty good play. It's not what it might be. Another play than Daniels has made of him being... If I'm being completely honest with you. Yeah, it avoids the pressure here. I'm trying to see what throw he wanted initially. He's looking to his left. He pumps at this point. He wants... I think he was just trying to hit this throw in the flat. It's not really there. Andy's got a guy coming off the left side. He's like, okay, let me just buy myself a little bit more time. And then his guy gets wide open. I don't know what happened to that Bama DB. That might not even have been a DB. Was that Dallas Turner? Yeah, man. That's probably not the guy you want in coverage there. Oh, no, it wasn't Turner. Guardless. Not a great looking coverage. Because they had it clamped. They had everything locked up tight and then he fell down. But good job by McCarthy creating time and then finding his guy.  I don't know exactly what he's doing, though. So, yeah, this feels just so confused by Alabama. Because everyone comes inside. But no one's actually trading off, right? These crossing routes need to be passed off, right? We've got three guys coming from the left to the right. And you've got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven guys in this area guarding three guys. That can't happen. If you're outside, you pass off those guys quickly. Make sure no one's coming back. You've got two guys wide open, man. Really well-designed play by Michigan, but terrible. Terrible coverage there. That's a tight throw. This is much better than what we saw against Ohio State, I think. Or even Penn State. Tucks this one. Probably could have thrown this, but this might just be a QB draw. I don't think it is. Because normally you see a QB draw. It's like he would have tucked that a little bit sooner. But the way he tucks it, it makes me think draw. Maybe it was a single-option RPO. You either run it or throw it. Tight throw. Get it out quick, man. You got one-on-one there. Your guy gets a little bit of space. Let it fly. If he holds onto this a tick longer, he probably gets crushed. Oh my God. The receiver got crushed. Is that Kool-Aid, man? Kool-Aid. Put him down. Where does this ball go? Again, that glare. The sun makes it hard to see where that ball is going. Does he dabble in big-time throws? We'll see. Sails this one. So, all right. So this is overcompensating, and you can see it. A lot of these throws, he's been really tight. His form has been really tight, which has been good. We saw him hit an out-route earlier on this drive, where he just popped, locked, let it rip. This one, really, really big extension here, really opens up his form, and he sails this. He's trying to compensate for the depth of this throw. He can put some zip on it for sure, but this, that, he was trying to, to deep out, just trying to hit it.  This is a, that's what I was like, is this a bad read, or? I don't necessarily think so. That's probably a fine read. Because I just saw up here, from this angle, he kind of looked open. But no, okay, he was just blocking the guy. Yeah, I mean, that was probably a fine decision. They've really done a good job. Michigan, Michigan's offense has really done a good job of negating a lot of the pressure looks that Bama's trying to send at them. This is just a four-man rush, so it's nothing crazy. Look at how they, they sell this, this kind of, I don't even know if I'd call it a triple option, but they've got, you know, their motion man, kind of that yo-yo motion. And they sell this pitch with like a lead blocker and a pulling guard, just freezes the defender for a tick. And it opens up a throwing lane right here. Ref, look out. Really, really good design to create easy looks. This play, this is the craziest McCarthy play you'll ever see. It is, it's absolutely bonkers. I remember watching this play live. Now, this was crazy. This was crazy, man. I can't believe this happened.  And if Kool-Aid just stays with the receiver, instead of coming up to play McCarthy, ah, what could have been. But it's a great, that's a heck of a throw. He just catches it one hand and just like, go get it buddy, and he got it. Is that Roman Wilson too? Man, yeah. Bama's defense is getting cooked. They're just getting their, they're getting their matchups, right? Michigan, Michigan came into this game, prepared. I said, yeah, we're gonna get our matchups. It's gonna be great. And it was, man. This is glorious. I'm a Buckeyes fan though, so this hurts. 13-10. We'll go till 7-30. So he's escaping here, trying to find, does he keep his feet in? Hard to tell. You got guys though. I don't know if he had to bail. I don't know if he had to bail so early. Maybe, I'm trying to see if they, okay, 32 coming around the edge. That is a crazy stunt. He went all the way around. And he forced McCarthy right. And it made it hard for him to hit his crosser here. And he forced him wide too. I'm just trying to see if, if there was room for him to step up. Not really. Whoever 92 is forced that pocket to really fold in on itself. Yeah, this is, Michigan's done a pretty good job so far of negating this, this pass rush. But this time they, they made it, they made it tough on him. They made it tough on him. Yeah, I need to not catch that. Did they give it to him? No way. Are you s- What? I'm thinking there's no way. But it looks like he got it. Another good match up here. Because they take advantage of the fact that Bama will trade off guys in motion, right? And it's like, well, I just take the most outside guy, you take the most inside guy, safety takes vertical, right? And they end up creating a mismatch here. This is a little high. You probably want to put this low in a way, that's a risky throw. And you also had guys coming back the other way. So you didn't really have to force that throw. This is a pretty decent game by McCarthy, though I will say, I think a lot of it has been Michigan's offense. Yeah, I had a really good game plan. You see, he just doesn't quite feel this pressure the same way that May does. May feels everything so effortlessly. Caleb Williams feels things pretty effortlessly. Even Daniels I think would feel this, whether or not he makes the right decision to like find a guy, an open guy to throw to, you know, we can have a discussion about that. But yeah, he just doesn't quite feel this stuff the same way, right? This is where I think like Drake May slides a little bit to the left, right? And then he tries to come back right, or he slides to the left and he's able to make the throw anyway because he's got effortless arm talent. Gab! What's good, Gab? We're wrapping up here, give me three minutes and then you can have the floor. We're watching a little JJ. Yeah, now the pass rush is starting to get home a little bit. You can see McCarthy's not really getting through his full set of reads anymore. He's just kind of eyeballing, you know, he's like, oh, I guess now I'm just going here, no matter what. Right, he probably had a better opportunity left, but he asked, he forces himself right with the pressure here, which like, I get it, they have Turner coming off the left. So it's hard, but like, again, if you're able to hang in there a little bit longer or heaven forbid you have to step up, maybe you can. It's not a bad play, he finds the guy and it's just incomplete. It has not been a bad game by McCarthy, by any stretch. Again, they create some miscommunications, create some mismatches, it's a wide open look. They've done a good job of that kind of stuff all game, lots of misdirection. Just creating mismatches, creating miscommunications on the defense. That's something that's really given Bama trouble. They mess up the flea flicker here. Quick throw, just trying to get some yards back. You see what they're trying to do here. They did this early on too. They did this early on, but they were ready for it this time. Bama was ready for it. They weren't going to fall for this easy misdirection again. Fair enough. And this is, I think, ultimately what people become enamored with with J.J. McCarthy is they see the way Michigan's offense operates and they're like, man, they gave them some really easy, effortless looks. And it's like the offense is just so fun. And there's so many moving parts.  But I think ultimately Michigan's offense creates a lot of easy opportunities for its players, lots of misdirection. And like even on this option play, right? Good job by McCarthy reading it, keeping it. But I mean, the offense of line leading the way, right? Great blocking. And you've got multiple guys just frozen by the mesh point. And McCarthy is basically untouched all the way to getting that first down. He almost sails this pass. This is the other thing I keep seeing, and I'll wrap things up here because I know we're getting short on time. But the other thing that I keep noticing, whenever he has to deliver a pass down the field, he really unloads it, right? We talk about the effortless deep ball that Dan, not Daniels, Daniels has a good deep ball, but the effortless deep ball that May and Williams have is not present with McCarthy. McCarthy has to unload. When he's making these short quick throws, he's real tight, real tight with his form. And then whenever he has to unload it deep, he really opens up, and a lot of times he overcompensates a little bit. And this one's high, it's caught, but it's a high pass. We saw him overthrow a sail route earlier because of that same throwing motion, right? You'll see it here. It's just a big wide throwing motion and good catch there. And then they score here, and that's the game. So yeah, I mean, if JJ stays at an efficient 23-3 interception ratio, isn't that what teams want? I guess, but again, how many teams run in offense that's that efficient and how many teams are going to give him enough weapons to make that work? Again, I think every single quarterback, I think Bonix, Michael Penix, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, they're all going to be going to worse situations in the NFL, almost certainly, unless one of them ends up in Minnesota. That's the only way I could see them being in a situation that is equal or better to what they were in college. Except for Caleb Williams and Drake May. Maybe Spencer Rattler too. Rattler might be the other guy where he could go to the NFL and be upgraded as far as the situation that he's in. But I also don't think he would start year one. And I think that plays a big part. Like, the fact that these guys are going to go on to be in situations that are substantially, even marginally worse than what they were in college and they're still making a lot of these mistakes, they're going to have a hard time overcoming it because they didn't really have to in college. And so that's the thing that concerns me the most. I'm not super enamored with the pro day stuff. I thought this was the Bama game is probably the best game I've seen from McCarthy. Now that I think about going back and watching it now, that is probably the best game from him. I'm just not super enamored by a guy that can operate in an easy offense. I've seen what Caleb Williams can do in an offense that has no structure, that has no easy looks. I've seen what Drake May can do with an offensive line that really can fold sometimes. Receivers that can't get open. I've seen. Yeah, he just needs a Blake Horem. Yeah, so that he can get 28 touchdowns or something crazy. Daniels is out here with Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas and an amazing offensive line. He's got guys open on every single play. Michael Penex has Roma Dunze. He catches like 75% of his contested targets. He turns a 50-50 ball into a 70-30. I mean, it really is Caleb Williams, Drake May, and everyone else. And so again, my top five is Caleb Williams number one, Drake May number two. I think Bonix probably operates a little bit better in structure than McCarthy does, or at least he did this year. I think Penex is a better talent than both Nix and McCarthy, but the injuries really concern me. And then McCarthy, I might maybe Rattler. I would be interested in Rattler. Rattler's interesting. I'd be willing to take a shot on Rattler, because he was in an awful offense too. Just terrible design. But if the commanders take Drake May, that would be the smart decision in my opinion. But I appreciate you all tuning in. I hope this was fun. I'll be back next week doing the same thing with wide receivers. I'll tweet out my top five wide receivers beforehand, and then we'll go live, talk about them. And it should be a lot of fun. I had a lot of fun today. I hope you all did. And until next time.


Debate is enormously creative and rewards hard work. You may have seen debates on TV where people shouted, ignored counter-arguments, or seemed to be in a contest about who could attack the other person more effectively. Debate tournaments are not like this at all. Students use a combination of logic, research, strategy, and persuasiveness to appeal to judges who are focused on substantive issues. Today we are going to look at one of the most important skill sets in Debate – Refutation and Rebuttal. We will talk a little bit about the theory of both refutation and rebuttal, and cover the basics of being responsive in round. In argumentation theory, an objection is a reason arguing against a premise, argument, or conclusion. There are many ways to object, and we use them often in debate rounds. An objection to an objection is sometimes known as a rebuttal. Argumentation scholar Douglas Walton explains that to rebut an argument is to try to show that the argument is questionable or not supported by the evidence, or even that the evidence shows that it is untenable. In competitive debate, rebuttal was the process of defending one's arguments against an opponent's attack. Refutation, on the other hand, is the process of answering opponent's argument. Debaters will find themselves doing both refutation and rebuttal in every debate round, and the line between the two will often blur. Additionally, both refutation and rebuttal share the same basic goal – to respond to arguments. Now that we have some understanding of what refutation and rebuttal are, let's talk about how we can use them in the debate. In order to have a good, effective debate, you need to be responsive to the arguments and counter-arguments of your opponent. In their introductory manual, authors for the International Debate Education Association explained that this means accomplishing four keys things. First, to locate the argument you wish to answer. Next, summarizing the argument which you were responding, then responding to the argument, and finally explaining the impact. Let's take a look at these in more depth. First, locating the argument. This does not simply mean that a debater must find the argument for herself. The debater must locate the argument on the flow for her judge. In the most competitive forms of debate, the debater will typically signpost or refer to the position of the case in which the argument is found. For example, a debater may say, look at our opponent's uniqueness on the first advantage. This enables the judge to go to that place on the flow, locate the argument, and flow the debater's response. Without such clear signposting, judges will inevitably be confused about what the speaker is responding to. Clarity about the location is key to the judge's understanding of an argument and the debater's crafting a clear round. Second, is summarizing the argument. Simply saying, go to my opponent's second advantage. They are wrong here because it's not enough. A debater must tell the judge which argument he is answering so that the judge understands the argument that the debater is making in response. This summary should be no longer than five to ten seconds and should include the claim and a brief description of the warrant of the argument being answered. This makes the premise the debater is challenging extremely clear to the judge. Third is responding to the argument. A response can challenge any part of the argument, the claim, the warrant, or the impact. Claim and impact level challenges typically do not respond to the reasoning provided by the opposing side. Rather, they provide alternate reasons why the claim is ultimately untrue or why the argument is less important than the opposing side wants the judge to believe. For example, my opponent argues that our plan will increase unemployment by stifling private sector growth. This is not true because the plan will increase public spending on infrastructure, thus creating more jobs. This statement does not challenge the explicit reasoning behind the opposing argument, the bill will stifle private sector growth. Rather, it challenges the claim that unemployment will go up by providing an alternate means of increasing jobs. An impact level challenge also does not address the explicit reasoning behind an argument. Rather, it explains why the argument is fundamentally less important than the opposing side wants the judge to believe. For example, my opponent says millions of jobs will be lost because private sector expansion will be stifled. These lost jobs, though unfortunate, are a necessary step to restructuring our economy for the 21st century. Again, the debater is not disputing the claim that jobs will be lost. She simply claims that the impact is a necessary evil. Thus, claim and impact level responses do not disprove the argument being answered. They merely provide alternate reasons to disregard the argument or reasons that carry greater weight than the original argument. While claim and impact challenges are perfectly acceptable, challenges to warrants are usually the most compelling form of refutation. Challenges to warrants explain why an opponent's explicit reasoning is incorrect. Challenges to data demonstrate the opposing debater is simply making assertions unsupported by fact. For example, my opponent argues that our plan would increase unemployment by stifling private sector growth. This is not true, because the plan actually increases private sector expansion by funneling money through the federal government into the hands of private contractors. This directly challenges the opponent's warrant by explaining why the opposite effect will take place. These arguments are typically the most engaging because they target the explicit reasoning of the opposing debater. Warrent level challenges demonstrate strong critical thinking skills to the judge, more so than claim level responses which do not necessarily engage the line of reasoning used by the other side, or impact level responses which typically are not as strong as warrant level responses. Last, explaining the impact. After the debater has responded, she needs to explain the impact of her response. She can choose between two separate types of impacts. Impacts on the real world and impacts in the debate. An impact on the real world details the effect the response will have on some element of society. It should explain in detail what will happen good or bad as a result of an argument. An impact on the debate details the effect the response has to an opponent's argument. It connects the argument that is being made to the ballot and decision that the judge will ultimately make. A good response will contain both a real world impact and an impact on the debate round. For example, because the plan will not stifle but rather will stimulate the private sector, millions of jobs will be created and millions of families will be better off. This argument is central to the affirmative's position and now that it has been turned against them it should be clear that a negative ballot is justified. This impact begins with a real world explanation of the argument's effect and ends with an explanation of the argument's weight and importance in the debate. Today we discuss the basics of rebuttal and refutation. We recovered their basis and argumentation theory and looked at four key steps to being responsive to arguments and debate rounds. Often in American public discourse we are presented with political events that are labeled as debates. Missing from these public spectacles, amongst other things, is the clash of ideas. In competitive academic debate you are challenged to be better than this. Clash is key to understanding and deeper critical thinking. Plus, at the end of the day, a debate without clash is boring. Thanks for watching. This video series is written and produced by me, Ryan Guy, with the help of a wide variety of scholarly research and open educational resources. For more information on the references and materials used in this video, see the description page on YouTube. This video is published under a Creative Commons license. Please feel free to use, share, and remix its content.


You know what I mean? Well, that is kind of cute because it's helpful. If you think about those old movies, the walking zombies, the zombies are like the walking dead. And then you start to go deeper into your mind when you realize that an ego made this world up and this is the ego's field and that it's already the walking dead. This is the land of the zombies. It's not like it could become where it is. It's like when they worked at hospitals. There was death all around everything, but I was really aware that I was just watching a scene and I would only seem to speak when I heard a really sincere question. In a sense, a lot of the people that were dying over their last days or hours would kind of come to me while I was serving them food or doing something. They would hear like discurgency. I was like, you can tell me what this is about.  And then they would check out me. I come back and they check out. I said, raising the dead. I was giving them permission to let the body go. Go ahead. You did a great job. You did a wonderful job. What about my children? Don't worry. They're fine. But if people are just seemingly reporting on something, it is a very interesting period of the mind training because you're in a phase right now which we could call true empathy. What Jesus says the difference between true empathy and false empathy is when true empathy, you stay with what's real and true. And if you start to become aware of the unlimited nature of life, which is really what miracles are showing and leading pointing us to the unlimited nature of life, then there isn't a sadness or a grief with the past. Nor is there a question even in terms of where do people go and all this stuff, it just starts to drift away and there's just a state of stillness and silence. And I have gone to superheroes where I have been asked to speak and they have been very joyful times where I've just expressed a lot of joy and people start weeping and crying because of the joy. They could feel it. They could feel it with no sense of loss, no sense of missing, a sense of presence, very strong presence there and they just were weeping because of the presence. And for me that is a very essential aspect of the mind training. Where I think it gets difficult is when we still have some unconscious beliefs that we could let somebody down or hurt somebody's feelings or lose a friend or whatever from our stillness. Like somehow our presence would be offensive to somebody. Love's presence would somehow offend somebody. Those are doubt thoughts. The idea that love's presence could actually offend is a crazy idea but it's like we're clear in our mind of those thoughts. Sometime I went to Michigan and I was visiting two friends and they said that somebody was dying in this community and they were on their death bed and I'm laid out on this couch and they were in their final hours or days or whatever. And then they wanted me to go and I said okay I went and I went into this home and there was a man laying there on the couch and he was dying and relatives and his sister, different people were in the house and I actually went in there and it was the feeling of like a very somber house. Like a very somber house. Heavy, like heavy with grief. I didn't actually feel it but I could pick up that that's what seemed to be going on in the scene. So I just sat there very still, very still and I'm always ready on the spots of the Spirit if there's anything to say or do or to just be there in presence in silence and then at some point the Holy Spirit started speaking through me and quite a lot came through and apparently the man's sister was Catholic or was a Catholic household. Whatever the Holy Spirit was speaking at one point the sister just said okay I am very uncomfortable with this and she looked over at me and she said you and your friends are going to have to leave. Have to leave the house, everything. And then the dying man who was laying there and all the strength he had left in his arm put his arm, his fizz in there and said no, let him continue. So and then as I continued to speak I even mentioned the Course and the dying man said I studied the voice of miracles and there were parts of the Course of miracles that I did not understand and I wanted to hear what this man has to say and the Catholic sister just sat down and the Holy Spirit continued. If that was David in there there was no way you and your friends are going to have to leave I probably would have just tucked my tail between my legs and I wouldn't have walked out but the voices continued speaking. It was almost like unfazed by this you're going to have to leave it was like the Spirit didn't even skip a beat. To me that was a real teaching in true empathy in truly staying a servant of the Lord and not getting caught into judgments and criticisms and self criticisms of embarrassment, humiliation or this kind of unworthiness in the ego mind that just doesn't want to offend it feels itself as offensive so it's always guarding against offending anybody and that's where the people pleasing comes in you know when you're too afraid to let the voice of Spirit speak through you you tend to err on the side of just people pleasing then you feel all wishy-washy and you feel like you've compromised and you feel it's disempowering when you compromise like that so I think you're just in a phase where the Spirit is using you in a sense of true empathy and it's this unswerving, unflinching dedication to the truth and this awareness that Jesus says I did not die, teach that I did not die is what he's teaching us to do and your presence in that is very, very important if it seems like people are offended if it seems like friends turn away and go oh I can't even be around that or this and that that's okay too doubt thoughts will disappear it's when we hold on to people and even if they're very negative and judging and criticism we say oh but that's my friend you know people really aren't people they're just thoughts and so when we have thoughts that seem to be very negative around us and so on and so forth we're so afraid to lose anybody nothing's being lost we're just releasing the judgmental thoughts in our minds and those complaining, whining people that seem to be around us we're our complaining, whining thoughts that we weren't quite ready to let go of I mean it just disappears I get phone calls, I get emails but these emails come flooding in with sincere questions or phone calls with people that are very, very sincere and very, very loving and respectful and we have this deep connection but when was the last time somebody called me up just whine, whine, whine, whine oh it's so bad, let me tell you how bad it is where he was on the phone for 30 minutes and whine I can't take it anymore because it's like, why would you why are you hanging on to those relationships why are you clinging and holding to those people it's like, oh but David, it's mom who is my father and mother, sister and brother he that does the will of our father in heaven is father and mother, sister and brother if it was mom, that's fine too I mean I was like, if you really let her go if you let the concept go, she will come back reborn I've watched it, I've watched it with my biological family I let him go, I just said oh whatever this construct is, it was made in guilt guilt, guilt, guilt, guilt, guilt and I said, yikes, I've got to really let it go it's very good, let it go then you let it go and you wait for it to be given back to you and you can wait patiently it can take weeks, months, years who's gonna hurt you? you know, if you're in the present moment and they're gonna hurt you, you can wait with patience that's something I did in the course about infinite patience produces immediate results I said don't try to figure it out it's Jesus this is how he talked but you can see where he's coming from infinite patience produces immediate results and that's where we're getting into that that's a really certainty in our hearts that we are love, that we deserve love that we can receive, give and receive love we don't have to compromise we don't have to try to cling and hold on to old patterns


Good day, fellow investors. The market has been down lately, very difficult situation. And that's the time to revisit the great businesses that I have looked at over the last years, but that were always a little bit too expensive or overpriced, but still great businesses. So today I want to share my analysis of Disney. I reviewed the company again, looked at what I wrote and made a video about it a year or something ago, see what has changed and how that fits my investing style. So we're going to discuss Disney, what is the case with Buffett's purchase of Disney. And whether we are in a situation like he was in the 1960s, then we're going to discuss the fundamentals and the relative and absolute stock valuation of Disney. And that later you will see how the absolute valuation of the company, the business value and the relative valuation of the company, the speculative market value, which is also a very important factor when it comes to investing, fits your investment style and investment portfolio. Let's start. So just a quick fun fact. In 1966 Buffett purchased Disney and he bought 5% of the company for 4 million. He met Walt, he went there, he visited and he saw that Walt was investing 17 million for one new ride, just one new ride. Then he quickly figured it out, market capitalization was 80 million, buying Disney for what, less than five rides. The value of the park was 80 million alone. The rest, the brand, the Mary Poppins and everything was for free. So he purchased that. And now we are in a similar situation. We have Disney, everything that Disney is. And now we have Disney Plus, that is growing extremely fast. And if we compare it to Netflix, then just Disney Plus is worth as Netflix, which means that you get everything else for free. It's different. Then back then with Buffett were tangible assets and now those are intangible assets, but 50 years have passed and perhaps we are in a different world. So let's discuss the Buffett investment. So everybody says the error cost him 20 billion. I would argue it's not that. He paid 4 million in 1966, sold in 1967 for 6 million, 50% return in a year. The current value of Disney's 188 billion, 5% stake would be 9.4 billion. So turning 6 million into 9.4 billion, is that a mistake or not for Buffett? We have to look at the return on investment. For easier mathematical calculations, 50 years, 6 million into 9.4 billion, a yearly return of 15.8%. Add a 3% dividend and buyback yield over time, let's say. And we are at a return of 19% per year. Compare that to what Buffett has done over the last 50 something years, 20.3%. So it's not actually a mistake for Buffett over the long term. And this is something very important to understand. He simply thought it was overvalued and solved when the margin of safety wasn't there. Now let's see about Disney. What is Disney as the investment? Perhaps you hear about Disney, but Disney is much more than Disney. ABC, ESPN, the Disney Channel, Disney brand, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Marvel, BumTech, 21st Century Fox, Hulu, that will become 100% of Hulu, Parks, Studios and much more. But this is the most important, this is the core of Disney. So you have strong brands, huge user base, everybody knows about Disney, a great business, good business that can scale its business and grow earnings and profits. Speaking of earnings and profits, let's discuss the fundamentals. Great year, 2019, the fiscal year was great with 70 billion in total revenues, 17% growth and good profits of 14 billion, 15 billion operating income. Diversified over media networks, parks and experiences, which is the largest contributor to revenues that is unfortunately now shut down. So we'll calculate the impact in a moment, studio entertainment, record box offices of 11 billion and direct of consumer and international close to 10 billion. Now what will be the 2020 impact? We can estimate parks to remain closed for 2020 and then slowly recover in 2021, but not to the 2019 level. Park revenue hit 50%, 25% in 2021, respective to 2019, media networks hit 25%, my YouTube revenue that is donated for charity, so please subscribe and click that notification bell, is also down 50%, even if views went up due to the situation. Studio, of course, it's closed, no work, no box office, 50% hit. However, Disney Plus, the new product launched in November 2019 is growing at a staggering pace. So I estimate that from the current 70 billion, the revenue should be around 50 billion in 2020, a bit better in 2021. And the company will not have any profits and no free cash flows for two years because operating expenses consisting primarily of labor, cost of goods, all the infrastructure, supplies, commissions and entertainment offerings, let's say can be balanced a little bit, so they will likely survive as the big chunk of their costs will not be there for a while. Now on evaluation, let's start with the absolute valuation. For Disney to return to normal, let's say in 2024 plus to get the Disney Plus growth, I estimate revenues of 100 billion. Disney Plus probably with 200 million subscribers times $10 a month will probably lead to $24 billion in revenue, a little bit of growth on the other segments. And you are at 100 billion at current margins with profits between 16 billion and 20 billion in a good year. So 5% growth over time plus a 6% business yield. That is the business valuation. If they continue to grow at 5%, then your return is around 11% per year, not a bad return for a great business from a business perspective. The current situation price earnings ratio is 17, 188 billion market capitalization divided by 11 billion in profits. Now, if the valuation remains the same, the stock in five years should be at 20 billion profits in a good year times 17, the price earnings ratio is 340 billion market capitalization, the stock price would be at 187, that implies a good return of 12.6% per year in five years. That's not bad if the valuation remains the same. So you are playing here the valuation game that it will remain at 70. If it goes to 10, you are not making any money with this investment, important to note. Now there is relative value. If we look at Walt Disney, the whole company, everything goes for 186, 188 billion depending on the current price. If we look at Netflix, 174 billion. The valuations are different, Disney 17, Netflix, 103 on questionable earnings, but that's a different story. I made a video a few months ago. You can check that. If we look at Disney Plus, so the service that has been launched in November, 10 million at start, 28 million in February, 50 million subscribers in April. So in six, seven months, they went from zero to 50 million subscribers. Netflix has 167 million subscribers. I can estimate that Disney Plus will reach Netflix's subscriber base, but by a year, two years. So from a market perspective, and given that Disney Plus has much more content, has cheaper content because they make it anyway, I think that just Disney Plus should be valued as Netflix. If that happens, you are buying now Disney Plus, compared to the value of Netflix, the rest of Disney is for free and the rest of Disney is what makes the money for now. So you have 10 billion plus another 10 billion in profits probably from Disney Plus, you're a 20-something billion and then the long-term returns of investing come. If the market suddenly starts thinking, okay, Disney Plus is as valuable as Netflix or the price of Netflix goes down or Disney Plus goes up. Also, a good discussion here. Just look at market share, how competitive it is and when it comes to such competition, what is the key? Content is king. It's all about content. Will Disney Plus have better content than Netflix? Well, it will really be a highly competitive game, which means that Disney will also get the good market share and probably also reach Netflix's subscribers. Now, what's the difference now between Disney and 50 years ago when Buffett was buying? The question is tangible and intangible value. Should we adapt as investors? So Disney's book value per share is, yes, 93 billion in stockholder equity, but that's all goodwill and intangible assets of 103 billion. 50 years ago, Buffett was buying the park, the tangible value. Now you are buying the intangible value. So that's the difference and you have to see how this intangible versus tangible value fits your portfolio. So to sum up business value, same valuation, the stock price should be 187 in five years. If suddenly somebody says Disney Plus is more valuable than Netflix, then add just 180 billion to the market capitalization. The stock doubles and that is also something that can happen over the next three years. So on one side, you have, let's say, a margin of safety in a business yield at 6%. The growth will depend on the situation in the markets with the economies, with demand, with the opening of tourist attractions. So that's something you have to keep in mind. It will be volatile and we cannot project how hard will Disney be hit, therefore, there might be even better opportunities. However, the long-term bottom is, I think, a 6% yield from a business perspective. The risk is it deteriorates over time or it slowly picks up. However, the upside is, okay, this is as valuable as Netflix, bam, the stock doubles from the current perspective or Disney Plus mitigates the impact on the parks, et cetera. So this is the situation. See how the absolute and the relative valuation, the risk and reward fits your investment style and whether Disney as a great business fits your portfolio. Now, I'm still looking, I'm comparing, I'm going through all my list of great businesses that I did analyze in the past and I'll see whether I'll dip into something or not or I want to learn more about this intangible then I buy something just for my learning portfolio where I have businesses that I want to follow really closely and then source for the other bigger, larger portfolios. Thank you for watching. You can check everything what I do on my website. There is my book, The Charities I Mentioned and a lot of more information. Subscribe, click that notification bell, comment and I'll see you in the next video.