new new new new new new Okay, it's coming soon coming soon the new version of the s3 box a lot of people signed up and liked the s3 box from expressive But they've revised it. I think they've improved it a lot. It's just looking good. It's got a 2.4 inch screen Yes, we 32 s3 to microphones accessories. Just got some photos from them. We'll get some in the next week or two So sign up Revision revision so this LED backpack Based on the ht-16 k33 we love it. It's great. We're doing revisions while we were revising this We also added stemmyqt ports on it So if you want to use this and you you know don't want to have to do any wiring once you solder the LED matrix on the front You just plug and play you can chain these together and set the address and have a bunch of them all together in a chain Alright next up We also have a revision of the GPIO bonnet. Oh boy, we could not get the max mcp-23017 for a while on the qfn. I revised these the TSOP because I could get the TSOP Maybe now I need the qfn but the time the TSOP was only available and while I was there I also made it so it's fully assembled so the 2 by 8 GPIO IDC ports now come fully assembled on as well as the The the 2 by 20 header that goes into the pie and I put a stemmyqt port so got like a pretty good scrubbing down some revisions I'll be honest. You've done almost 500 revisions now A lot of them, you know, we just update the silk screen and you don't know I've changed a couple parts here and there Because of transistor or voltage regulator was unavailable, but this was a pretty big revision Okay, and then these are nearly identical-looking cables, but we got them there so identical looking but they're not they are the half meter long Display and camera cables for the Raspberry Pi 5 if you want to use the Raspberry Pi display the official display you'll need one of these cables if you want to use any of the Raspberry Pi cameras This will convert it from the new Pi 5 22 pin to the old style 15 pin connector Okay, and then start of the show besides you lady at our community our customers our team and every study who makes this thing Go and everyone Build a better world together is The ADS 7830 This is a fun little ADC We've had people ask hey, you know I want to add a lot of analog inputs to us, you know a chip or microcontroller or Raspberry Pi And I like the ADS 10 15 series, but they're a little pricey and they're a little pricey This is much less expensive. It's about half the price that it has twice as many channels. It's not as precise It's an 8-bit not a 10 or 12 or 16 bit ADC So it's not for like precision measurements of like a thermistor or You know like a microphone or whatever something where you need, you know 10 12 or more bits of accuracy a precision what it is good for is Potentiometers or a flex sensor, you know, if you're cool with only having point five percent Precision then 8 bits is plenty and I think for a lot of purposes It is especially since it's going to be again a lower cost and you get eight full channels So we put this on a breakout board. You can use it with I squared C We've got Arduino library circuit Python and Python coming shortly. You can change the address you can have up to Four of these on one single I squared C bus for 32 total channels The ones from two point five, you know, whatever three volts to five volt logic and power You can by default uses the power as the reference if not, you can of course have an external reference I just be smaller than the power. I think what I actually not sure take the data sheet for that But not a lot going on the down the this breakout board So check the day sheet for the ADS 78 30 you can do up to 70 kilo samples per second Over I squared C and we just kind of rigged it up so that you can quickly get it going On your mic controller that needs more and on inputs No, no, no, no, no, no, no less


At this point in my life, I've experienced different things and tried different things and I've had failures and I've had successes. But the one thing I've learned is the most important thing in this world is loyal friends and family. I've been broke. I've lived in a mobile home when I was a teenager. And it sounds cheesy to say this, but love, and I don't just mean romantic love. To me, love, if you study the word love in the Greek and the Latin, there's three types of love. Eros, Faleo, and Agape. And Agape is like your family love, like unconditional love. If you have a kid or a brother or your grandma, you have unconditional love. Then you have Faleo, which is like friendship love. And you can have just as much love for someone who's a friend than you can have. There's friends who are more valuable or more loyal than family. And so you need that in your life.


I think the first one is no fear of failure. I think the hardest step often for an entrepreneur is the first one. It's to make the step that that's your life choice is to be entrepreneurial. And then as Sandra rightly said earlier, passion, trial and error, this kind of tireless, tireless dedication to the product. But I think the subtler, those are all sort of the recognized traits of an entrepreneur in the market that we recognize them for being passionate risk takers. The subtler traits are probably more important, which is that they're very attentive. So if they get negative feedback from the market, really, really good entrepreneurs understand the value of small improvements and not necessarily trying to leapfrog everything.


Aaron Boone mentioned that the sky and the way the lights are in the outfield sometimes makes it difficult to see just how tough is it out there. It's pretty tough. You know the first couple of years here I remember playing in triple A was any high you know fly balls especially with the lights not being you know the same as you know a lot of Major League parks just kind of makes it tough to see. So I think that one just you know I think the one to Hicks you just kind of caught him off guard. He was he was able to see it right the last second. We just kind of had some miscommunication and I should have spoke up and said something but yeah just this is a tough one tough to watch some of the young pitchers struggle on your end. I wouldn't. I wouldn't really say struggling. You know everyone's out there battling you know they're they're there's a couple of mistakes. It's all really takes you know especially with a good you know hitting team like the Blue Jays.  So it's you know they're going out there you know trying their best and they're staying aggressive which I like and that's the only thing you can kind of ask for as a defender. You've played in a couple games since coming off the injured list. How is your calf feeling and how are you feeling at the plate as well. Yeah. That feels good. No issues. I've been able to run around you know pain free no no problem feeling good feeling good in the box. You know like I said it's going to take four or five games when you get the timing back and you know I don't have a chance to you know get a lot of live at bats you know somewhere else like Scranton or playing triple A right now. So you know it's getting back you know slowly but surely but you know I think my life my life's at bats tonight was probably my best I'm able to kind of get some there just missed it got jammed a little bit to right field but you know we're getting close you know and we're going to keep battling and you know keep winning games you're down the stretch of ourselves in good position for the playoffs but yeah it's got to keep working.


Welcome again to Don't Call It Magic. We're all magical people in the Caribbean, and it's diaspora, but what do the entanglements of magic, myth, folklore, history, culture, liming, bacchanal, all have in common? I think they're rooted in words, and it's my great pleasure to be moderating this panel with three of some of the finest wordsmiths and word makers I know. My name is Shivani Ramduchan, I'm a member of the NGC Bocas Litfast team, and I am delighted to be joined by Karen Lord, Pauline Melville, and in a few short minutes Ayanna Lloyd Banwoo. Before Ayanna gets here, because she's facing the particular magic that is delayed buses, allow me to introduce Karen and Pauline. Karen Lord is the author of the prize-winning Redemption in Indigo, the speculative fiction novels, the best of all possible worlds, and the galaxy game, and the crime fantasy novel Unraveling. And because you're a special audience here at Bocas UK, and delighted to whisper to you that Karen's forthcoming book, The Blue Beautiful World, will be with us in summer 2023. Please give her a round of applause. Next Karen is Pauline, whose Master of Chaos by Sandstone Press, published in 2021, is the latest short story collection from the acclaimed Guyanese British writer. Karen's work has won numerous literary awards and has been translated into 10 languages of the Master of Chaos. Salman Rushdie, you might have heard of him, says, in this virtuoso performance, Pauline Melville shows us a world in upheaval and reminds us that that's where we live. I'm contemplating introducing Ayanna before she's on stage, and I think I will not. What I'll do is introduce her when she arrives. But first, invite Karen to share a brief reading from Unraveling with us. Thank you so much, Shivani. So whenever I read from speculative fiction, there's always a lot of context that you feel you might have to give so people are not totally lost. Unfortunately, this is a bit that doesn't require a lot of context. We're talking about the characters being in a labyrinth. Hey! Well, no one noticed that, right? I've been here all along. Parts of the theme. Go ahead. No? Sure? Yes. Okay. You have come just in time to start my reading. So the purpose of this labyrinth is to give the protagonist a possible future view. And the two characters who are going to be speaking in this conversation, neither of them are human. And that's all the context I'll give you for now. You'll have to hear the rest. Multiple human shadows. How do you do it? The tricks are marbled. Patients close the door. It has to be done. Everything in the labyrinth is me. For what goes in of its own free will, the trickster guests. Patients gave him a silent nod of confirmation. But dear patients, I've had so many doubts about you and your love of free will that your mastery of puppetry does not appease by concerns. She sat down on the ground without grace as if subtly exhausted. Shall I tell you how I achieved this high skill? The trickster dropped down beside her. He choked back his yes, sensing that the knowledge would be both unpleasant and impossible to forget. But it was too late. She leaned forward, demanding his full attention with an intent gaze. Every path I dreaded to take, every weakness I rejected, even the joyous passions that threaten to overwhelm me. In some, every part of me that I could not control, I set apart from myself. I gave my wild selves their own incarnations and pushed them out to work their will in the space and time allotted to them. I have whittled myself down piece by piece in pain and in bliss until what remains is my core of iron, molten and compressed under the burden of all my ifs and maybes. The trickster had no answer but silence. She straightened, taken away some of the force of her presence and spoke more gently. I am sorry, my love, myself. We cannot escape responsibility for our decisions, even when we want to be persuaded that someone else is to blame for that final yes. That is as true for you as it is for me. I know how free is the will that I gave you, and yet I am also responsible for your actions. How shall we live out this paradox? Unshadowed and true, she rose to her feet. The world is my labyrinth and everything in it is me, except for what enters of its own free will. Free will, he began, uncertain of his own quarry. Free will is a game, only a game, but a necessary game. The greater my power, the more care I take to honour its rules. She bowed her head. The trickster was still unable to speak, but he had to make some effort to convey the awe and concern he felt for her. Crouched on the ground, he too bowed his head.  Go back to the labyrinth, was all she said, but the gentleness of her tone comforted him. So that's one small part of unravelling, and I have another small part to share with you that again is dealing with one non-human person, but another who is human and who happens to be his mother. Chats went down the road to the old family house, the place his grandfather had built, the place where his mother had grown up. The village was deep asleep at this hour, with only the occasional barking dog or restless yard fall to punctuate the relentless chirp of the tree frogs and crickets. It was of human eyes that he saw that the three steps of the veranda were occupied. Palmer was sitting there, her form relaxed and un-worried, propping her chin sleepily on her fist. She looked up as he approached and shifted aside so he could pass, but instead he sat beside her and gazed up at the stars shining into spaces between the leaves of the trees. I love you ma, he said. Unexpectedly Palmer laughed. What does love feel like to you? She wondered. Chats sighed, but he was smiling too. This will be hard to explain. You can tell me anything, she reminded him. He eyed her in the dim light. Her face, as always, gave nothing away. Very well. I can feel the spaces where the threads will go, the threads that will weave your life and mine together. If I haven't lived it yet, it feels like a lack, as if I'm missing something very important, missing someone who's very close. Every encounter we have takes away the space that makes me miss you and replaces it with a cord that links me to you and you to me. Loving you when I haven't lived our times together feels yearning and unfinished. Loving you with all our moments accomplished feels sweet, strong, and complete. When you put it like that, said Palmer, her eyes shining of tears and pride, why would anyone fear death? Certainly not I, mother, he whispered fondly, nudging her shoulder with his. She sighed as she patted him on the arm. I was worried about you. I should have known better. Now go to bed. It's late. He squeezed a quick hug around her shoulders, got up and went inside.  He spoke over his shoulder. We'll talk in the morning, ma. I have a journey in mind for you. The last thread has been woven and it's time you met Miranda.  No more vagueness. I will find out who she is. You will tell me how you first met? Chance nodded. I will tell you how I first met her, years ago, in the city, sitting on a bench in the shade. And after that, since you know me so well, I will tell you the other story about how she first met me. Thank you. Thank you, Karen. We'll now hear from Pauline, who will read for us from the Ventriloquist tale. Good afternoon, everybody. Can you hear me? I don't trust this small thing. I've got pins in my ear. You can hear? Yes. Good. Okay. I've chosen to read a little bit, well, two little bits from the Ventriloquist tale because it's mainly set in an area that you're probably less familiar with, which is in the far south of Guyana, on the border of Brazil, amongst the Wapishana, Makushi, and YY peoples. And I think a lot of people in the Caribbean aren't so familiar with that. It's a different culture, really. The narrator of the novel is a Makushi folk spirit called Makunaima. And I'm going to read just a little bit of his introduction to the novel. Spite impels me to relate that my biographer, the noted Brazilian senior Mario Andrade, got it wrong when he consigned me to the skies in such a slapdash and cavalier manner. I suppose he thought I would lie forever amongst the stars, gossiping, as we South American Indians usually do in our hammocks at night. But first, I lay claim to the position of narrator in this novel. Yes, me, rumbushtous, irrepressible, adorable me. I have black hair, bronze skin, and I would look wonderful in a cream suit with a silk handkerchief. Cigars, yes. Dark glasses, yes, except that I do not wish to be mistaken for a gangster. But dark glasses are appropriate. My name translated means one who works in the dark. You can call me Chico, is my brother's name, but so what, where I come from it's not done to give you a real name too easily.  A fast-driving BMW when I'm in London, a Porsche for New York, a Range Rover to drive, or a helicopter when I'm flying over the endless savannah and bush of my own region.  I like to rub myself in every orifice and crevice and nook and cranny with lotions, potions, balsam and creams. Why am I not the hero, you ask? Because these days you all have forgotten how to make heroes. Your heroes and heroines are slaves to time. They don't excite wonder and amazement. They don't even attempt to astonish, enchant or amuse. They've forgotten how to be playful and have no appetite for adventure. Sub-zero heroes. A puny bunch, embedded in history or worse, psychology, that wrinkle in the field of knowledge that hopefully will soon be ironed out, leaving us in our proper place between the monkey and the stars. Believe in me, I am the one who can dig time's grave. Oh, I was just going to do another little bit. Hang on, there's another little bit to that. I invite you to my homeland, the parched savannas that belong to the Indians, either side of the Kanakoo Mountains nor for the Amazon. The plains where it is said, people have so little that a poor man's dog has to lean against the wall and brace itself in order to muster the strength to bark. That's all for now, folks. The narrator must appear to vanish. I'm gone. God, sorry, there was one little bit. Shall I read a bit more? What's the time? One little bit. Yes, go ahead. One little bit. I'm just going to read you one little bit because, again, it relates to the theme of this session. And it's about Danny who is being trained to hunt by Shibidin. Gradually, Shibidin unraveled for him the complex tangle of stars in the sky until Danny thoroughly understood which stars indicated which season. Everything has its master in the stars, explains Shibidin. Everything that moves, that is, you don't find plants and trees in the sky because they have roots and they can't move. He pointed out certain constellations. That's the master of fish. That constellation signals the rains and tells you when it's fish breeding time. The little group of stars at the top, we call the tapir. The tapir is also connected to the rainy season.  Then numerous around the time of the rains. He pointed out the topmost star of the Southern Cross. When that top star reaches the highest point, then you'll hear the Powys bird cry, that grunting cough. It cries at a different time every night, but always when that star is at its height. Danny soaked up all the knowledge. He learned that each constellation was a being who used to live on Earth and had gone up to the sky to avoid persecution and to be in charge of a particular creature. Soon he could tell by the stars when lava or bush hog would be plentiful, when the high grasses or the thunder maize were likely to seed, when the frogs would start to sing and the fish spawn. He could distinguish the scorpion rainfall from the crab rainfall and predict when the black swallows would come twittering from the caves and rivers darkening the sky as they dived after the swarm of insects. Is that short enough? Thank you, Pauline. I, for one, would love to hear you read the entire book. Then where would we be? Somewhere great, actually. Not a bad idea. Ayana Lloyd Banwo is the Trinidadian author of the highly acclaimed novel, When We Were Birds, published by Hamish Hamilton, which the observer named as one of the best debut novels of 2022. She is a creative writing PhD candidate at UEA and, very recently, Ayana was short listed for the £20,000 Echo Center and Hay Festival Writers Award, which I think is a round of applause, don't you? I don't know why, Shivani, trying to get me kidnapped in this go-over season. Ayana, over to you. Thank you. I, you know, amongst, notice she didn't say that she was excellent at timekeeping and navigating buses and directions and so on in that, in that intro. You know, me and London buses have a long-standing battle, but here we are. I'm going to read a bit from Yejideh's section of this novel. The novel goes back and forth between Darwin and Yejideh, who are our main characters and our lovers that meet in a cemetery, very kitchen-esque. And this section is when Yejideh has just inherited her mother's, her matriarchal power to see death. So she sees people in a very different way than we all do. And her mother has just died. So the house is in just, you know, if you can imagine that moment when the house has been in vigil and then the death has come and now everything is sort of crushed and wondering sort of what's next. And then the moths come. Tiny white cotton whispers that settle in Yejideh hair, on the curtains, on patronella armchair, on the banister winding up the stairs. Big brown ones that fly straight at you when you're trying to walk. Open up cupboard and they fly out like a small army, guessing in the tea cups when you're trying to make tea, sitting on the kettle until just before it boils. Then they scatter and fly to the bulbs, the lampshades, the light outside on the porch, casting shadows on the windows.  They gather on the photographs of houses that no one alive could even identify. Big ones with turrets and demerara windows, small, slim ones with ornate black gates.  They plaster the windows and block out the sun so the room stay in dusk light, even after the rain stopped and the sky breaking. They come to see a mother home, Peter tell her, as he brush one from his shoulder. He reach up and pull up a tiny white moth from Yejide hair and smile. This time Yejide could barely recognize her own self. Every time she pass a mirror, she see her eyes glassy and wide with dark circles under them. Her hair spring out every which way and the white, fluttering moths make her a tree in bloom. She find it hard to look at people straight or now, so she stare just past them. Everybody in the house like they split in two. She can see the Peter that she had always known, a strong, kind man who had never left their side, always looking younger than his years, the silent backbone of the house. But she could see something else now, a shadow around his body, his age, the old man he would become. Wasn't as simple as seeing his death, but she could see the time that it would come to claim him. See it around Seema too, even more so around Agatha and Angie, Mr. Homer, the darkest of them all.  They all give her a wider birth now as they pat around each other in the house, waiting for the ambulance from the funeral home.  She find that if she stand very still, almost forget to breathe, she could look on at them as they're going on about their tasks and they can't see her at all. Not invisible, just still. Like she become part of the house, part of the air, existing in a dimension separate from where everyone else living. When that wasn't enough, she sneak out the house like she and Seema used to when they was young. She don't take Seema, don't even tell her, can't bear the idea of anybody holding her hand. And later when the outside feel too big like she might drift away in it, she sits on granny Catherine chair in the corner by the front window and watch Seema gather seasoning from the garden. Just once Seema look up and toward the house, like if she feel somebody watching her, but she never give no indication that she see Yejide at all. And Yejide had so full that she wonder if it might not be better so. When night come, she lock her door before she go to sleep. And still she can't get the man out of her head, the green man amongst the dead. Who was he? Only light around him, nothing else. Light and forest and green and something strong and pulsing that draw her to him. How she travel there to see him wasn't something she could ask Peter about. You can't tell your father, well the man who was as good as your father that you see a man somewhere in a dream and you know you have business with him and he have business with you. Last night after the whole house gone to sleep, she sneak downstairs and sit in patronella chair for hours, waiting, hoping, trying to squint her eyes to make the garden look the way it had looked after the vigil, to somehow bring her mother back to her to ask her the questions that only she would know the answer to. But it seemed like they only get one shot, one chance to say whatever else needed saying and that time gone. The ambulance driver behill and pull in front the house. Three men get out, but the driver take one look at the agide standing on the porch, her hair covered in wings, moths all over the windows even in the daylight and get right back in the ambulance. Not me and them devil ting. He shout and lock the door. Thank you Ayanna, Pauline and Karen for those readings. As you will have heard, each of these books and larger bodies of work by these three writers entangles myth and history in captivating ways but also interrogates with mischief, with humour, with peacong and wit what it means to be from a magical place. My first question to all of you answer all at once, have you ever felt like a magical being while writing? Ooh, alright, just gooey it later. No. I can only answer that by saying that if madness is magical, yes. Because when the characters are having loud conversations in your head that you didn't think about in advance, it does feel a little bit strange. Yeah, I think, I think, no, you're sure? I've never felt like, like a magical being, no, I just feel like a worker. Ryan. Maybe my head goes here and there, but I don't feel myself that I've transformed into some kind of jombie. At all. I think sometimes late at night, when you're, I think, I've scared myself sometimes when it was just too late and I should have been asleep and I've had too much gin and I really should have been asleep. It's like the third day of Bender and you know, you kind of have that, am I here, am I somewhere else, am I, it's just, but that's probably just caffeine and sleep deprivation more than anything else. I've heard that caffeine is a kind of magic. A kind of magic. I wrote a collection of stories once called The Migration of Ghosts and actually the stories bore not much relation to the title, but I kept the title because I had a period when I was frightened that not only might we migrate, but those spirits might migrate with us. And I had this idea that Moongazer, I don't know if that's just in Guyana, is it? Moongazer? It's huge, it's about the size of Big Ben and it straddles the crossroads. Ah, yes, big tall legs. Big tall legs, straddled crossroads, you can't walk and talk through the legs, but it doesn't mind if you're smoking a cigarette and it gets bigger as the Moon gets bigger and it diminishes as the Moon.  And then later on I began to think, no, I think those sorts of creatures are quite territorial, they stay where they belong because you wouldn't like to see Anne Boleyn who was beheaded with a head under her and walking in the bush in Guyana. No, she wouldn't want to get there. You know, so I reckon we're kind of safe, probably. Are there any spirits in attendance with us today? I hope you're kind and benevolent ones. But as the panel is proposing, magicalness, the state of being special and otherworldly is ascribed often to Caribbean writers when book reviews emerge in prominent papers or publications outside of the Caribbean. There's often a sense of, we don't know what to call this thing, so let's call it magical realism. But as Anne and I have said many times, magical realism in Trinidad and Tobago is just what happens when you walk down the road sometimes or buy groceries or feed your family or go to Carnival. Speaking of Carnival, Ayano, I know I had to talk to you about Carnival because as you described recently effusively in a panel here, there is a myth making and a map making to Carnival that every Trinidadian and Barbadian and Guyanese person can understand. How do you felt you accessed elements of the Carnival-esque in When We Were Birds? Which essentially doesn't take place during Carnival. But there's mass running through the blood of the book. I mean, I think that there are so many ways that we are mask making people, not just mask making people. I mean, whether we are talking about this from the masks that we wear to get through on a day-to-day basis, as we do, whether we mask our language, whether we mask our culture, whatever it is as a way of navigating spaces like this. Whether we mask to make ourselves invisible to allow ancestors to come through us in the rituals of Juve, in the rituals of Orisha, spirituality at Feast and so on. I think we are mask making people. And I think one of the things that was interesting for me in writing this book was the idea of making yourself invisible or being invisible and being something else. The same Bernard woman, the part that I read from Yejide, her family is more or less unknown and invisible to everybody else on this island except for those who live very close to them because their work necessitates secrecy.  You know, that's not prudent, wise or necessary. So there is, I think I found the idea of taking on the guise of something that you're not for your own protection, for the protection of others, for the ability to do sacred work that has to be done. I mean, all secret societies and sacred societies require a kind of invisibility, a kind of mask that needs to be worn in order for this work to take place. So I think death is sacred work. Working around death is sacred work. Burial is sacred work. Embarming is sacred work. Funeral rights is sacred work. And the work that these women have to do necessitates a kind of mask, a kind of secrecy. And this is one of the parallels I found evident and beautiful ways between when we were birds and unraveling because the world of unraveling, as you'll know if you don't yet know, is densely labyrinthine. And there are people who walk through it who are both human and non-human, angelic and less angelic. And it's a dense, rewarding novel that's so concerned with what we do in our lives that makes us worthy of living it. Or if we're less worthy, do we deserve to die in it? And walking those paths felt truly important to understanding the heart of the book. And when you were writing, Karen, did you feel that you, as the creator, followed similar paths? Well, that's a good question because this book took 10 years to write. It's a sequel to Redemption, and I jumped into it even before Redemption was published. And why I had to write it is that the question that Redemption asks as an answer and the question is, can you have Redemption for those who are, in a way, living out of time, who have a different kind of approach to existence than we do? So there were writings, and there were rewritings, and there were dead ends. You talk about a labyrinth. The labyrinth is the one that coils, but the maze is the one where you can come up on dead ends. And sometimes you thought you knew where the book was supposed to go, and it was like, nope, can't go any further here. So you had a backtrack and go again. And I think that in a way, it had to take 10 years because there were experiences I had to have. There were people I had to lose. There were entire ways in which the world itself had to change, not even just myself, for me to be able to make sense out of what the book was supposed to be about. And it's hard when you want to be a professional writer who just cranks out a book every year, but this is something that the book just teaches you by, in a way, yes, being its own labyrinth, being its own mode of self-reflection. We talked a little bit, Pauline, back there, when we were getting mic'd up about this responsibility we often face as Caribbean writers to keep harkening to home, writing about a specific place, whether it's Guyano or Trinidad or the White Sargasso Sea, and the master of chaos in really virtuosic ways doesn't do that. It rebels against the idea that Caribbean writers can only tell specific stories. It travels. A lot of these short stories are global. They occur in far-flung parts of the world. Did that feel the process of writing it to be centered in a kind of rootlessness? What was the process of voyaging like? Well, I am quite rootless. And to be honest, I don't want to belong anywhere. As soon as I feel that I belong somewhere, I want to escape. And I did want to show that Caribbean writers can write about anywhere. I think probably there's something that informs the work that comes through. But, yes, I really wanted to try it. I've written in that collection some stories set in Russia, Suriname, Syria, where I have never been. But I think one of the things that is underestimated is the imagination. I mean, because we don't want to be trapped with the sociology of just our own backgrounds, our own history of where we, at least I don't want to. I mean, every writer is different. They've got their own method. But I always want to explore something and sort of break walls. Yeah, the Master of Chaos breaks all kinds of surfaces you would think were impenetrable. And I think one of the things that's really remarkable about it is that it does that with a kind of irreverence and mischief that we could call very Caribbean. A lot of the figures in it are tricksters, they're little miniature enancies, and there's quite a bit of rebellion happening, skittering just beneath the surface. And so in that vein, a question for the three of you, if everything we do as writers is composed of a certain kind of magic and we accept that folklore and myths are intrinsic to how we write, where do each of you find this in your practice? Do the sources feel... Do they feel distinctly Caribbean? Do they come from elsewhere? Are they out of this world? I'd love to know. One thing I noticed, I don't know if any of you in the audience noticed that on the day, on the morning, the very morning that Rishi Sunook went to Buckingham Palace to become the Prime Minister, something strange happened in the sky. Does anybody know what it was? A partial eclipse. So he's on his way to Buckingham Palace and there's a bite taken out of the sun. So I noticed that immediately. And then I thought, oh, my God. I thought, by the time he's finished, his son will be gone. The whole sun will be gone. And we will be living in a gray austerity. So I mean, that's how my mind works, really. Looking for O-mines and portents. Portents. I'm depressed now, isn't it? I think that... God, now a study eclipse, a study in... I think I pulled from... Because I grew up reading all kinds of fairy tales and all kinds of stuff from everywhere. I just think it's my birthright to take what I want from wherever. I agree, absolutely. I feel like I should and, you know... I don't get to take from one place and carry the next place. Well, I might as well make use of every story, every myth, every fairy tale, every whatever. So like, when we were birds, begins with a creation story that a grandmother is telling her granddaughter and she tells about how the Kobo came into the world and how death came into the world. Now, there is no myth anywhere or no fairy tale or anything that I found that tells that story. But there are countless stories about Kobos, about carrion birds, about ravens, about vultures. So I just kind of dove into all of them. Yeah, I would do the same. That's what I wanted, to create this narrative that I needed because, you know, it's there. And it all belongs to me, so I think I can... I can thief. I agree. And in an earlier panel, Jacob says something that struck me, talking about the topography of the human heart, being the same all over the world. And folklore strikes me like that. Whenever you're reading folklore from whatever region, there is this really, really strong echo where you're like, well, that sounds like that and that sounds like that. So, you know, as you say, you're not really stealing, it still feels like yours. Just talking about this sort of baseline human condition. But another place that I take mine from is... When I was an undergrad, I was studying history of science and technology. And the fascinating thing is when you look at these periods of history where people were like, this is a science. We have rules.  You just made it up. So, you know, and then on the flip side of that, there are things that are, you know, depending on which, again, culture or region you come from, are portrayed as magic of ritual and then science sort of comes in and says, oh, well, actually that herb really does do that and this particular ritual really does do that and we have a grounding for it. So, when you recognize there's that lovely blur between the heart of the science and the soft of the magic or whatever, it's just fun to keep crossing that border over and over again.  Because, you know, for you might be magic, for me, that's science. One might be folklore, for me, that's history, you know. So, it's, I understand why we need those categories. I suppose, as I'm sure you all would agree, you know, publishers and critics, they have their work to do. Marketers. The marketers, let them do their work, but as creators, that's not our work.  And also sometimes, like Ventriloquist tells really about the coincidence of science, Einstein and the theory of relativity and how it was finally proved, and a myth, a South American Indian, particularly myth of a brother and sister coming together during an eclipse. And that actually happened. There was actually a true story in Guyana of a brother and sister who went just in the area where the eclipse was showing at that time, and it was all recorded by a Jesuit priest who went to try and break them up. And that coincidence of the science and the myth, both predicting something at the same time is sort of interesting to me. And so, you've learned here at Vocus UK 2022 that a writer with bad manners is the best kind of writer. Always give them permission to steal whatever they would like. From anywhere. From anywhere, including from right here in the British Library. Oh, I planned to, I hoped to. Karen beautifully said in 2016, when something real but traumatic or taboo occurs and it cannot be spoken of directly, it finds expression in parable or folklore. Tell the truth, but tell it slant. What's been the advantage to each of you of telling the truth slants? As often we've been made to do. Historically, we've often been made to come through the side entrance, the servants' quarters, the indentured passage, rather than the grand colonial front door. This kind of access as writers, what has it given you, or what has it taken away? Do you know, sometimes it feels almost more like playing because if you tell something factually which I've had to do because I have a side life as a socioeconomic research. There's more of a challenge to telling it slant. So yes, on the one hand you are maybe processing trauma, processing grief, finding a way to tell things to people that allows them to face it in a way that a hard fact wouldn't. But it's also, there's a knack to it, there's a skill to it, and you're constantly challenging yourself to see how many different ways can I tell this one truth and how many different people can I reach with those different ways? You know, when I, so I decided to make Port of Spain, Port Angeles in this novel. I created a city that was Port of Spain that was not Port of Spain at the same time. And every now and again I think about it and I say, who am I kidding? Of course it's Port of Spain. Like why did I bother? But I think why I bothered or why I felt it was necessary to do that is I think I had so much anxiety about getting it wrong. You know, I had just left Trinidad to do this Emmy and because I'd never left Trinidad before and I'd grown up in Trinidad, I'd grown up in town my whole, whole big 37 years before I left. And yet I still had this fear that I was gonna forget something that when I was trying to write this city, it would be the wrong way or the thing that was here was actually there. And I got so kind of tied up in that anxiety of was I going to tell, you know Trinidad, you tell something wrong. Listen, they would pelt right mango out here, they would ban Tokyo over Facebook, whatever. So I said, look, let me make up, I'm gonna make up a molecular place if I get it wrong. No, you can't say it's not that. But what it did, it kind of freed me from having to say it is this or it is that. It meant I could make, I could make the city as big as it needed to be. I could bring mountains up close, close, close. I could make it so dense that a man could pick up, drive from south to north, unlike nobody ever see him again because he could disappear. Which sounds like it's impossible to happen on an island, but people rarely just disappear and you never see them again. But you know, I think being able to kind of tell Port of Spain's slant made me give me the ability to write it maybe as how it feels like to me rather than if I had to, if you looked at it on a map, you would see, but this place small, how it could be so whatever. But if I could write it through what it feels like and in that kind of slant, then I can write it truer for what I needed it to be for the book. Whereas if I sat down and maybe sat by the map and factor the thing and figure out what was there, it would be kind of dryer, at least for me, to do it that way. Yes, my real worry is that sometimes I write about real people and I'm frightened that they're gonna read it and recognize themselves. So I always sort of add other attributes. But I mean, I don't do it that often, but I have done it and then I thought, well, I know this friend of mine's mother, she never reads a book. Steal her in there. I'm safe, I can put her in. But that's one of my concerns. But the back door is more fun too, Shivani, just using the house image. It means, I think it also lets you... I mean, the front door, a front access is what you show, right? What you say to the world. This is who I want you to see me as. But when you walk through the alley of anywhere, that's where the workers there smoking a cigarette, talking about talking to the boss. You walk through the back. You get to see a whole different part of things. It gives you a different way of approaching story that mightn't have good manners, mightn't be polite, mightn't be whatever, but it could be more interesting to tell something. The more tidy it is, the more fun it is. The more tidy it is, the better, the more fun, yeah. I promise that at the back entrance, this festival is very mannerly. It's organized, the lights, and they're following instructions. So in that case, yes. It's been a delight to speak to each of you, but I want that you escape until hearing a little bit more from each of you in reverse order. And the reverse order, that would be a good one. That would be a good one. Well, relax into the reverse order. Okay, so I will read a little bit from Darwin's section. Darwin is my other protagonist, his novel has two protagonists, and a very quick backstory. Darwin was raised Rastafari in the country, comes to Port Angeles to seek his fortune, among other things, and finds the only work he could get is in a graveyard as a grave digger, which challenges his whole sense of self in many ways. Some days Darwin can't work out how long he in the city. The calendar say nearly two months, but Fidelis, Fidelis is the name of the cemetery, but Fidelis have a different kind of time. The hours longer, the days deeper, and digging graves and lowering coffins in the ground is like watching whole lives fast forward beginning to end. Fidelis make him adopt its rhythm instead of his own, and it's not just Fidelis. Port Angeles crackle and spit like oil on a fireside, and he starts to like how he could disappear into it. That's another one of the many somebody's that come here for whatever it is they come for. He learning that even death in Fidelis does work in sync with the city. Hey there, that mean hospital, courthouse and graveyard. Heavy rain, that mean road accident for so, and they too busy to even laugh and all talk. Then it's half other times when something starts to ripple through the city. The wrong man get killed, the blocks get hot, and his only sirens blaring out through the night. Them days they dig in grave three, four times a day and have to send for temporary workers so they could do more than one funeral same time. But now as it get closer to November around all souls day, it's like the dead and the living come to a kind of a truce. All the graves quiet, and sometimes he don't see the other grave diggers at all for a couple days. He know that it does work other jobs and get little contracts when things light, but nobody let that win in on the cuts. True, he could use the money, but he don't mind. The days when it was just him, even the weight of the keys in his pocket make him feel good. And when the street lamps come on, the outer edges of Fidelis killed in borrowed lights, he stand at the crossroads, right at the center of the cemetery in near darkness and feel his whole body relax. Like how a man must feel when he finally reaching his own home after a long day and smell food cooking. Not like he ever know that feeling, but he forget must feel a little bit like this, like Fidelis at twilight. I'm going to give you a little bit from the book that's coming out next summer. Yay! Yeah, that's a big deal. So there are two little bits, one short and one slightly longer, but it's all a bit quite short. In spite of the breeze, the waters beyond were calm, and Canoes soon found himself in that smooth, steady swimming action which his father called strolling. Even breath, long stretch, relax into each surge and rise of every swell. So hypnotic, he almost found himself drifting off again into a kind of moving meditation. He almost forgot to listen for the parallel splash of his father's progress beside him, but it registered nonetheless as a strangeness, a distressing absence that shook him to full awareness. He stopped, alone, looked around, alone, looked back. His father was floating some 20 meters away, mercifully face up, and his lips pouting in labored breathing. Canoes sprinted to close the distance and immediately positioned himself behind his father's head, one arm across his chest, supporting him and cradling him close. His father laughed weakly. A little discomfort, it'll pass.  Canoes gripped him more tightly as a swell washed over them. I've got you, Canoes said, forcing all hint of fear from his voice as he raised his wrist to activate his emergency beacon. They'll come for us soon, hang on. No, wait. His father's voice was soft and sleepy. His eyes were half closed, but he smiled. Don't stress, it's a good death. Can't complain. In that moment, Canoes knew that he'd fallen asleep again or had never woken up and was dreaming about swimming at dawn with his father because at no time in the real world would his father be dying while the ocean surged around them. And only in a dream would the horizon grow higher like a rogue wave while the water around them turned gray and dark, yet mildly turbulent like waves over shoals. Only in a dream would the ocean stop behaving naturally and turn into a badly reddened VR mock-up, something too bad to even be a placeholder mid-design. He did not panic. The brush of water against his skin, familiar as breathing, became a tickle of seaweed and then a numbing tingle that took away all chance of panic. His arms slackened and his father's body slipped away from him. The gently churning waters parted them and then he could not think or feel anything. And then he's speaking to someone else about this experience. I only want one guess from you, Neraldi. What do you think happened to my father? Hmm, Neraldi murmured to himself. Well, that's not such a bad question. The answer is a bit long, unfortunately, but perhaps a bedtime story is exactly what you need. Kanua turned over and around so that he was on his stomach, head towards Neraldi and the ocean. Tell me, did your training in Havana give you any information on the origin of the Aradanian ships? Very little, Kanua lied. He wanted to hear it all again. All of the human origin planets are related, although there are several hypotheses and no clear reason why this should be the case. Our oceans, land and skies comprise of biosphere which is identical in some respects and merely similar in others. At times there's a marked difference, some beast or plant beyond anything seen anywhere else in the known galaxy. The ships of Epsilon Aridani were categorized as such and there are even more hypotheses to suggest that if they had not been a part of our evolution, we would have developed to be like the Austrinians or even the Lyrans. Our ships were intelligent Leviathans whose origins and domain were the depths of the ocean. They might never have been discovered except for their own curiosity about the humans that dwelled on islands and coasts. They hungered for us and they consumed us in every sense. They became the center of myth and religion, the voices in our dreams, the sacrificial meat of our rituals, the resting place of our dead and the resurrection thereafter. In time, science gave detail and logic to the wisdom of our ancestors and we understood what it meant to join the collective consciousness and travel across the galaxy via dimensions previously unknown. Our religion became a journeying and the paths we traveled became the roots of our empire. Okay, I'm going to read a little bit from the Master of Chaos who was in fact a gambler. But it's an example of the pure theft you're talking about. Nice. Because for some reason, I gave him the attributes of Barrow Samadhi from Vodan, from Haiti. And I don't know why and it didn't matter if the reader didn't get it, I got it in my head. So when I was writing that character, it informed my feeling about him, although in fact he dies after the second page. My grandfather was a gambler. He came from that generation of men in the old British Guyana who were graceful simulacra of the British gentlemen, a charming, mocking shadow of the real thing. In that part of the world, the past sometimes succeeds in pushing the present out of the way. My grandfather was tall, slim, with a pale brown complexion, the color of agate. He liked to wear dark glasses even when it was raining and kept a black silk opera hat that folded down into his suitcase. He smoked cigars and of all the rum in the world, he preferred El Dorado along with his favorite snack of grilled peanuts. He used to visit us in England, but never stayed long. Sometimes when he took off his sunglasses, I would catch his eye and the twinkle in it confirmed an affinity between us. People observed that as I grew taller, I looked more and more like him. Occasionally he took me with him when he gambled. I remember a damp room in Tottenham where I looked on as his long-fingered, brown hand unfurled like the wing of an archangel to cast the dice on the cheap veneer coffee table. His dice were unusual. They were light, knuckle-bone weight and yellow ivory in color. He told me they were made from the bones of a gambling friend, an Amerindian man who died in the swampy interior of the Masaruni River. He thought they brought him luck. As did a constellation to the upper left of Orion when it rose in the night sky. He pointed it out to me one night. The constellation of twins, castor and Pollux, represented his birth sign, Gemini. But he told me that the Aztecs knew it as the constellation of the frog. The two bright stars that represented the twins' head in Western mythology became the two eyes of the frog for the Aztecs. He preferred the Aztec version. Are you superstitious, grandpa? I asked. Only on Tuesdays, he replied. Ayano, Pauline and Karen. It has, I daresay, been magical, speaking to each of you. You will all want, I know, to voraciously get these books. If you don't have them yet, please make your way over to the booksellers table. Run by our project partners, Renaissance One. And get a copy. If you have copies for yourself, get one for your friend, get one for your enemy, get one for your favorite post. And the writers will be around in a couple minutes to sign them for you. When you do that, come right back. We have a lot more festival left. Thank you all very much. Thank you so much. Thank you.


TFNN, headline, news update. Everyone, Basel Chapman, the host of the Tiger Technicians Hour, and the author of the opening call, very comprehensive newsletter, and we've got this TFNN noontime update, and we've got the DAO up 27. Very interesting, why? Because the type of term we made just four days ago, peak D in the Chapman wave methodology, very quick peak A to B to C to D, higher highs, and then a pullback says you can have a bit of a pullback. That doesn't say it's a serious pullback. What will make it a serious pullback is if the price of the DAO starts to close under yesterday's low of 26,000 and 310, I think it was 26,000 and 310, closes under 26,300. I think we've begun at least a short-term signal to sell mode in the daily chart of the DAO. Weekly chart is still really strong. Look at this potential doji candle here, going to be watching closely next week. Hey, let's go on to the others, because there's a very mixed market here. The DAO is up just a little bit, the S&P is up 3.81 at 29.29, hasn't taken out the high that was made just the other day of 29. That was at 29.36.83, watching this closely, seven points is not a big deal yet. Let's just watch it by the end of the day, very strong leg C, but look at the QQQ. This is the index 100 trading down 69 cents today. This particular peak F in the chart wave will be very serious if there is a close in the next few days without a new recovery high over yesterday's high of 191.22. If there isn't a close above that in the next few days, but in fact, we take out 187, that's the 14-period moving average, serious support, because we haven't even been close to the 14-period moving average since the QQs broke out above it in 27th of March. So this is going to be very important. So for a very good tactic, because everything's looking good, we'll see what happens there. And the IWM is actually showing a little more strength today than the others. It's up 0.96 at 157.71. What is interesting, we'll talk about it more in the next segment coming up, my Tiger Technicians Hour, is that gold is up $10 right now. This is the first decent move we had in a while. We'll talk about what that means and why the dollar in our leg D could be pulling back a little bit here. I'll be right back. Stay tuned. Otherwise, I'll see you on Monday. Have a great weekend.


Hello. Today we're going to be talking about probability. So we often need to guess the outcome of some event to make a decision about what we want to do. So, for example, how likely is it that this car that's coming at me is going to hit me? Should I move or not? We don't know for certain if the car is going to hit us, but we do need to make some decision that affects our actions. So we can use probability for that, and humans kind of do probability in their head all of the time just in a very informal way. Probability is actually the study of how likely something is to happen, so we can actually measure it and make potentially, hopefully make better decisions based on that measurement. So probability deals with the chance of some event occurring, and knowing the probability of some event occurring or knowing when an event is likely to occur or less likely to occur is very beneficial in basically everything we do. So for example, knowing the chance that a stock price is going to increase or decrease would help us make a decision whether we should buy or sell stocks, which of course directly has direct relation to our finances, things like that. Knowing whether housing prices are going to go up or down directly affects whether we should buy a house or whether we should get a long-term loan or something like that. And these things are essentially unknown. We have to make guesses about, in this case, the future, the future of prices of stocks or houses or whatever. But also, we use probability or the probability models that we have in our heads to make guesses and decisions about every decision that we make basically. So probability is a very powerful tool that we can use in almost every aspect of our lives really, and we'll talk about it more now. So before we get really into probability, we'll give some definitions. So first off, whenever we are looking at measuring probability, we are in this course at least using it to measure the outcomes of experiments. And an experiment is a planned operation carried out under controlled conditions. So planned operation, we know essentially what we want to test. We know all of the variables around what we want to test, and it's carried out under controlled conditions. So we control all of the variables surrounding our experiment. Now there's lots of different types of experiments, but especially if we're trying to estimate probability or find a probability of some event occurring, we have to be able to control the conditions to make sure that we are actually testing the variables that we're interested in. And we'll talk more about experimentation later. Next is chance. So chance is the result when we use the word chance whenever the result is not predetermined. So whenever the result is unknown, we're not exactly sure what's going to happen. So for example, tomorrow I expect that I will get a coffee, but there is a chance that I will not get coffee, right? So the future in this case is not predetermined. Maybe all of the coffee shops close and the coffee I have in my office goes bad or something like that. In that case, there is a chance that I do not get coffee, even though the probability is high that I would get coffee. But it's not for certain that I can get that coffee, right? So chance is when the result is not predetermined. Chance is really most things in life. Nothing in life is really predetermined, right? Something can always happen. Even the things that we think are definitely going to happen sometimes don't. And that's because there is so much randomness essentially in the world that everything is left up to chance. Now we can calculate the probabilities to find out how much chance there is and how certain we are that something will happen. But that doesn't mean that it always happens. So chance is when the result is not predetermined. An outcome, an outcome especially relating to an experiment, is the result of an experiment. So imagine that we had a coin. We flip the coin and it will either be, in English we call it heads or tails. I'm not sure what you call it in Korean. So it's either heads or tails and the result or the outcome of our experiment would be actually observing whenever we flip the coin, whether it was heads or tails. What is the outcome? Is it a heads or is it a tails? So the outcome is the result of the experiment. In this case, our experiment is flipping the coin. We observe the outcome whether it is heads or tails or not. The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. So in the case of the coin example, the possible outcomes that I have whenever I flip a coin are heads or tails. I don't really have any other options. It could potentially land on its side and stand up, but that's essentially impossible, let's say. So we really only have two options. So the sample space for a coin is heads or tails. Those are the two possible outcomes in this case. And an event is any combination of outcomes. So if I have, for example, multiple coin flips or let's say that I had two dice, so I have two dice. Dice have six sides with numbers on them. If I have two dice and I roll them both, then I can have combinations of outcomes. So each die can give me a number and I can basically combine the numbers to get a set of outcomes. The event whenever we're talking about flipping one coin, we only have really two options. So the set is basically heads or tails. If we had two coins that we flipped at the same time, then we could have, for example, heads, heads, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, right? So we have multiple outcomes. So think about the event, the sample space is a set of all possible outcomes that we can get and the event is any combination of outcomes that we can get. And we'll talk more about that shortly. So coming back to probability, now that we have those definitions. Probability is a, we can define it as a long-term relative frequency of the outcome. Long-term relative frequency of the outcome. The probability itself can happen over a very many times. So in our case where we have two possible outcomes of the coin, either heads or tails, the probability of heads should be, the theoretical probability is 50%, or 0.5 would be the probability. The probability for tails would be 0.5, right? Equal chance because there's a 50-50 chance that you would get that outcome. Now, if we flip a coin for 100 times, we will not see, we will not measure 50-50 probability. So what we observe would be actually, heads may have happened a little bit more than tails. Tails may have happened a little bit more than heads, something like that. And as we have more flips, we get closer to the theoretical probability that we can actually calculate, right? So the long-term relative frequency, we're talking about over many times the action happens, we get closer to the theoretical probability. We should get closer to the theoretical probability. And again, we'll talk more about that as well. So probability is between 0. So if there's a probability of 0, then this means basically impossible and 1. And 1 is definite, some action will definitely happen. And what you'll notice in the real world, we don't have 0 and 1. Probability of real actions or probabilities of real actions being impossible or being definite are basically 0, can never be 0 and 1. They will always have some slight, perhaps slight, probability that they will happen or maybe a great probability that they will happen, but you will never be definite or impossible. One of our doing calculations though, we can use probabilities 0 and 1 because it's theoretical. If we're measuring, you will very rarely see 0 or 1, depending on what actions you're talking about. And here, whenever we write probabilities, so I have a, in this case, P bracket A and we read this as probability of A. So in this case, the probability of A equals 0 or the probability of A equals 1. That means that in the first case, the probability of A is 0 or it's impossible. The probability of A equals 1 means that it is definite. It will definitely happen in the future. And the law of large numbers, whenever we're dealing with probabilities, and I've already hit on this a little bit, when we're talking about probabilities, we want as many data points as possible. So for example, flipping a coin, if we get 100 flips, we will not have 50-50 chance observed. Either heads will have come up more or tails will have come up more. They won't be exactly even at 100 flips. But if we have 1,000 flips or 10,000 flips or 20,000 flips or 100,000 flips, then we will get closer and closer to the real relative frequency of the outcome. So the law of large numbers states that as the number of repetitions of an experiment are increased, the number of times that we do an action increases, the relative frequency obtained comes closer to the theoretical probability. Comes closer to the theoretical probability. We may never actually reach the theoretical probability, but we will get very close if we have more data points. So the whole point or the lesson from the law of large numbers is that we need a lot of data if we want to be relatively certain about our probability estimates for some action happening. If you just have 1 or 2 observations, that's nowhere near enough to be confident in the probability estimates that you're making. If we have a lot of data points, and a lot really depends on what the action is. Some things don't happen very often, but basically we need lots of data points to be able to say something about the probabilities that we're estimating. Whenever we're talking about probabilities, we have a couple events. So one is called the OR event, and in this case we have event A or event B. And this goes back to sets, sets, S-E-T-S. So we have A or B equals the outcome is in A or it is in B or both. So in this case, the outcome is in A or it is in B or it is in both A and B. Right, so in this case, if it's an OR, then we have two groups of things, let's say. So one group is A, one group is B, and let's say we want to find, I don't know, the lollipop. If the lollipop is in group A or the lollipop is in group B, like either one, then it's an OR event. If it's in both, that's also an OR event. We have an AND event, if for example A and B, in this case the outcome is in A and in B at the same time. So in this case, we have to have a lollipop in both A and B, otherwise the AND event is not true. If it's an OR event, then it can be in only A or only B or both, right? So ORs and ANDs, we're basically looking at sets and we'll talk more about sets a little bit later. But basically just for now, I hope you understand what OR or AND is and must be in both at the same time. Okay, next, conditional probability. Conditional probability is the probability of an event given another event. So for example, the probability of A given B and we write it as P bracket and then A and we call this a bar B. So in this case, the way you can think about this is the probability of an event given another event. So what is the probability that I'm going to get in a car crash if I get in a car, right? So A is the probability of a car crash, B is the probability that I get in a car, right? So maybe I have several options. I could take a car or I could take a train or I could take a bus or I could take several different options. And what is the probability that I get into a wreck if I get into specifically a car in this case? So what we can do then is calculate. Is it more likely that I get into a wreck if the action is getting into a car or is it more likely I get into a wreck if I get into a bus or if I get into a train? And then I could potentially calculate based on my action, based on one action, what's the probability of another action in this case? And we call this conditional probability. And conditional probability is very powerful if we can do it correctly. So we'll look at that a bit more. Independent events, if one event occurring does not affect the chance of another occurring. If one event occurring does not affect the chance of another occurring, we say that it is an independent event. So for example, the properties of an independent event is the probability of A given B equals the probability of A. In that case, the probability of B is not affecting the probability of A here. So we can say that A is not affected by B. Conversely, the probability of B given A equals the probability of B. So B is also not affected by A. So they're not conditional in this case. And then the final property, the probability of A and B equals the probability of B times the probability of A times the probability of B. So if these features hold, then we can say that the events are independent. They do not affect each other. And this happens a lot. So for example, we might say, if I eat an ice cream on Sunday, what is the chance that paper is going to fall out of the sky? So those two things, I hope, I hope don't have any relation to each other. So those two events are completely independent. My eating ice cream does not affect random paper falling out of the sky. I think, most likely, and we can test that to see if it actually does potentially affect this. So if they do not have an effect on each other, then we call them independent events. So if the above do not hold, the events are dependent. So in this case, we have independent events and that is A does not affect B and B does not affect A. So basically two events that really don't have any effect on each other. And if they do have some sort of effect on each other, then we call them dependent events, where they do actually have some sort of relationship. Next, whenever we're talking about probability and we're trying to determine probability of certain events happening, we have a couple of different ways to do sampling and we will talk about sampling a little bit more. But we have, first off, sampling with replacement and whenever we're talking about sampling with replacement, we're actually trying to control the probability of each member being selected. So whenever we have sampling with replacement, we have a sample set, a group of things that we want to pick something from, sampling with replacement, if each member of a population is replaced when it is picked. So I have, let's say, 100 bars of ice cream, different types of ice cream, and I want to sample these 100 types of ice cream and I want to randomly pick from one of these 100 for several times. If each member of the population is replaced when it's picked. So I take one ice cream, I write down what the brand of the ice cream is, and then because I'm sampling with replacement, then I put the ice cream back into the stack of 100 ice creams and I have the potential to choose it again. Now think about what this does to our probability distribution. So we have 100 ice creams and I take one out. If I don't replace it, then the next time I try to choose something, the probability that I pick something is 1 out of 99. Whereas the first time I tried to pick something, the probability of picking one of the ice creams was 1 out of 100. So I actually have a better chance of picking certain types of ice cream if I do not use replacement. So whenever we have sampling with replacement, we're ensuring that the probability to select a certain item is always the same. So every time we pick, we have the same probability to pick that particular object. This does not change the probability of any other members being picked. So the goal is to keep the probability of selection exactly the same. And we'll talk about why that's important a bit later. So sampling without replacement, if each member of a population is not replaced when it's picked, then this does change the probability of other members being picked. Because obviously you have less things to choose from, so the probability that you pick any one of them is going to be higher. Next, mutually exclusive events are events that can occur at the same time. Sorry, events that cannot occur at the same time. So we have mutually exclusive events that cannot occur at the same time. So in this case, we have the probability of A and B equals 0. So if we were talking about sets again, something being in A and being in B at the same time is essentially impossible. So what is a mutually exclusive event? What's an example of it? For example, going back to my coffee example, I cannot have coffee and not have coffee at the same time. I either have no coffee or I have some coffee. But I can't have coffee and not have coffee. Or coffee cannot be in a cup and not be in a cup at the same time. So there's two events, two things, two states of being that are mutually exclusive. I cannot have something and not something at the same time. So these could be mutually exclusive events and the probability of them essentially is 0. Right, depending on what you're measuring. So there's two basic rules of probability that are quite useful in many situations. First off is the multiplication rule. And the multiplication rule is if the probability of A given B equals the probability of A and B divided by the probability of B. So in this case, we can just read it as probability of A given B equals probability of A and B divided by the probability of B. This is a useful property for calculating A if we know the probability of A, if we know the probability of B and it's a relatively simple and straightforward equation for calculating probability of A given probability of B. Next, the addition rule. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P, A and B equals 0. So if obviously two things are mutually exclusive, then their probability must be 0. Based on that property, we can say that if the probability of A or the probability of B, let me rephrase it, the probability of A or the probability of B equals the probability of A plus B. Because now we're talking about A or B, not A and B. Not two things, something in both sets. We're talking about the probability of one thing being in A or one thing being in B, but not in both, basically. So we can get the addition rule based on that. And we can calculate the probabilities of either the overall probability or the probability of both, basically. What that lets us do is if we know the probability of one, we can essentially find the other using basic value. So that is it for probability for now. Make sure you read the chapter. There are a few more examples in there, especially how to calculate things. The assignment for this week is calculating some probabilities, determining how we would calculate probabilities of certain problems.


For the Wednesday segment, where producers stress our knowledge on various sport and sporting events, just the facts. For West Indies have named seven uncapped players in this squad for the upcoming test series against Australia, and as such, today squids the round's West Indians and their debut against Australia. The pass mark, 6 out of 10. Ready? Let's go. The West Den cricket of the year 1987, 2010 ICC Cricket Hall of Fame inductee made his debut. Alright, so we lost that one. Coming back up. So we, okay, made his debut November 9, 1984 against Australia. Who is he? Yeah, 1987. Made his debut in 84. Let's come back to that one. Alright, next. This Trinbegonian both made his debut and played his last studio matches against Australia in a career that spanned between 1978 and 1987. 1978. Larry Gomes. 87. I would try Larry Gomes for that. Alright, number three please. Which guy needs batter who scored 51 and 45 on their test debut against the Aussies at Paris Okatage. Three players made their test debut in Australia's 1978 tour of the Caribbean, including Derek Perry and Richard Austin. Who was the third? 1978, Basil Williams. Okay. Yeah, scored a century on debut against Australia as well. Alright, number four. That was with a packer when they topped players with a packer. Which was, I think, the significant part of that debut trio. Okay, come on team. How much did Desmond Haynes score in both his test and ODI debuts during Australia's 1978 tour of the Caribbean? What were his debut scores? Desmond Haynes. He scored 148 in the one-day international. And ODI. ODI. Who would test on ODI? I don't recall how much he scored in test, but on ODI debut he scored 148 from 136 deliveries. I have seen videos of that knock. It was quite a knock. Okay, we'll come back to that one next. Will we? Next, next. We have to save time. Number six. This week, we could keep a batsman's score 41 and 43 on test debut during the win this. All right. So we saved some time. Next, seven. Back in 2013, Australia defeated West Indies by nine wickets and the first of five ODIs in Paris after dismissing West Indies for 70. This debut turn took the only Aussie wicket. What year is that? 2013. Yeah. ODIs. Let's go back to that. Let's go back to that. Seven. Coming back to that. Number eight. Himal Roach made his T20 debut in a seven wicket win of Australia. How many wickets did he take? Five. One. No, two. Two. Let's say two. Five. Nine. True or false, Michael holding bats at number three during the test debut against Australia in 1975. He would have had to be a night watchman. It sounds like it sounds too specific not to be true. Yeah. You know, he made 34. He actually scored some runs there. Okay, true. Let's say true. All right. Time. These two Jamaicans made their test debut in the second test of Australia's 2003 tour of the Caribbean. These two Jamaicans made their test debut in the second test, Carlton Boe and David Bernard Jr. All right. We have a lot to go back to. So, let's start. Number one. This was then cricketer of the year 1987, 1984. Here did the Charles Makis test debut. Was it 87 or 88? I don't think it was 87. Was it 87? Okay. It was then cricketer of the year in 87. Okay. Our time is up, team. All right. Yeah. Last time. Let's go to the next one. 2013. Australia defeated Westernies by nine wickets. This debut time. Let's see. The only Aussie wicket. This was 2013. Yeah. I can't recall. Can't recall. 2013. 2013. All right. So, okay. Can we see the answers or we have any more to go back to? No. That's it, I think. Okay. Answer, please. Wall shape. Courtney Wall. Oh my. Larry Gomes. Oh, Larry Gomes. Yeah. So, that's one. Page. That's two. That's my name. Three players in their test debut in Australia. 78th tour of the Caribbean. Next. This one is 61 test. Yeah. We didn't get it. We got half. We got half for that. What is it? Oh, yeah, I didn't know. Yeah, he did. Yeah, we got the sixth one. Jeff Jones. Jeff Jones. Jason Holder. Holder. 2013. Two. Two. We said two, right? Yeah, he said two. Wow. Four. Four. True. True. Five. Carlton Bawande. Bernard, yeah. Six. So, six and a half. Six and a half. Yeah. I thought that was tough. So, six and a half. Tough is what you say. Possibly, it's more like it. Well, we did six and a half. So, it wasn't as impossible as you were saying. I want to tell our viewers, though, that coming up at the track on the Sportsmax zone, Thursday, the latest in Thoroughbred action from Barbados, Jamaica, and the USA, where the Barbadian trainer, Savage Joseph's winning streak continues. Plus, a Tampa Bay downs race from Florida that you could be tempted to think was X-rated and not fit for airplay. Check out what goes down Thursday at the track on the Sportsmax zone.


I'm here in the ITUTB studio with Stephen Blust, Chairman of the ITUR Working Party 5D, to talk about the future of mobile broadband. Stephen, you're working on the next generation 5G and IMT 2020 mobile systems. What is IMT 2020? Well, IMT 2020 is the ITU terminology for what you may hear in the industry called 5G, the fifth generation of wireless technologies. Previously, as you might be aware, we've had the 3G, which we called IMT 2000, 4G, which was called IMT Advanced, and now we're working towards the 5G, and that's the term we've given it. And really, when you look at what it encompasses, is we're talking about how to take the connectivity of anywhere, anytime, any place that we have today and significantly build on top of that and expand it to do the things with a level of communication capability that gives a higher reliability, a higher performance level to the end users, does it with network economies of scale and improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, and to do it not just for people communications, but to add in that dimension that we have with the internet of things, which is where we have these millions or billions of devices that begin to be interconnected to do things on our behalf, your smart refrigerators and other things like that. And then I guess maybe there's one more dimension that's come in, which is the networks we're building today and as we move into 5G are also being expected to perform as communication tools for like emergency services. So that's what we call mission critical application. So it's a very wide ranging approach toward 5G building on where we are. So why the name IMT 2020? Is there anything special about the name? Well, yes and no. The interesting thing about IMT 2020 is I really look at it as a concept, but there is a sense there toward the fact that this stepping off point of the new availability of 5G will start to come into commercial service sometime right after 2020. So there is that aspect, but I think more importantly, we're talking about a horizon in the communication systems and in mobile broadband. It's a new way of looking at how we define and build these networks. We've had 20 years since 3G and we've learned a lot. There's a technology advancement, there's the capability and the underlying way we build the networks as a better appreciation for the applications and the uses and so forth. So it's really kind of stepping out with a clean slate approach, which is the reason I say it's a horizon into the new next generations. Could you tell us something about the Working Party 5G itself? How did it go about developing the standards or recommendations that 4M to 20, which represents the new vision for 5G mobile systems? It's an excellent question. Well, you know, to touch on a bit of history, the ITU has always been involved in ITUR, particularly in developing and fostering wireless and radio communications. I mean, we're coming up to the 150th anniversary of the ITU, so you can certainly see they've been there for a long time. And to do it with a global perspective. In particular, in the ITUR, as we've said, IMT is what we call this branch of mobile broadband we're developing. And in particularly in our Working Party, we deal in the terrestrial component. And the range of things that we cover involves not just the technology, but operational aspects, system aspects, the natural resource of the spectrum and the spectrum bands and those sort of things. And we do this with a series of meetings among the membership of ITU. But just as importantly, we have fostered some very strong working relationships outside the ITU with the industry stakeholders, the technology developers, the operators, the manufacturers, and so forth. And it's with that partnership, we're able to very effectively deliver results that are actually real, meaningful, implementable. So it's a very rich community we have here of doing this work, which leads us to some very good successes. How long have you been working on 5G or IMT 2020? We really sort of started it almost right after we were finishing up some of the IMT advanced work, which was in 2012. Maybe even a little bit before that, because quite frankly, one of the things that I look at in what we do here in the ITUR and in particular Working Party 5D is to serve as a think tank and a strategy view of the future. In essence, getting out from where we are and looking much further down the road. And just as an example, in 2011 even, we went around the world with various workshops and the theme of the workshop was IMT for the next decade. And the whole point of doing that was to stimulate the thinking on it. And the outgrowth from that thinking over the last several years have been a number of research projects around the world to look at technology and what it can do. And that's flowed back into us. And in particular, in the last couple of years, we've done a lot of the foundational deliverable work. One of those is the vision document, which sort of is the critical nucleus of where we think this all needs to go. So what is the vision for 5G? What's in it for us? The vision for 5G is quite interesting because it's also quite complex. On one hand it's simple, on the other it's complex. And the reason I say that is we all know what the mobile systems do for us today. And we're going to expect that to continue and do it better. And that's part of 5G. But coupled with that are the things I mentioned such as the internet of things, billions of devices that are a different type of communication, long battery life, wake up and talk just a little bit, versus the high end multimedia, the ultra HD televisions and these immersive experiences that may be coming along. And then you've got other dimensions associated with how do you do that within the existing constraints of technology, laws of physics and those sort of things. So you wind up with a situation where you're in tension. You're trying to solve simultaneously all these problems that have somewhat conflicting requirements in use cases, but do it with a cohesive view of the technology on an integrated system so that when you step outside of that as the user it's invisible. That's the challenge. So that's the vision. When will you get to the reality? When will a lot happen? We're aiming as the industry is toward having what we need in place, the specifications, the early equipment to look at commercial deployment shortly after 2020. To do that, we've had to set in place a process. We've got very well-defined processes in our working with us in the industry, set in place a process to, for example, over the next two years detailed, defining the detailed technical specifications we need in order for that technology to be built, to write the standards for it so it'll interoperate no matter where you go globally in the world. The follow on after that is to evaluate the results of that work as it's being built and simulated, et cetera. And then finally to wrap it together in a package in the specification deliverables that documents it all on paper. And then, of course, going along with that is, is all the discussions we have to do with the spectrum to support that, which is a very critical role that we have as well as for the industry. Stephen, I can tell this is your favorite subject. So do you have any personal observations on this? I think maybe as a couple of points is the fact that there's a uniqueness here in ITUR. It is the conjunction of the industry and the governmental activities, the regulators and the others in the government working together to produce these documents and deliverables and these visions and views. And that's a very unique thing. And it results in a very strong global ecology, shall we say, for broadband mobile, 5G and IMT. And we know what does that do for us? What does it really bring to the world to do that? In many cases, broadband, mobile broadband is the sole communications mechanism. It's your communications, entertainment, information source. In many countries, it's becoming the inroad for the individuals in those countries to become connected to the rest of the world in a way they never had before. And that brings great advantages to that. And then I guess maybe one last point is the fact that when you wrap all of this together and say what does it also do, it really impacts the economies and the jobs around the world in any of these countries. So I think that's the other messages for mobile broadband. Stephen Blast, we look forward to the 5G future. Thank you very much. We're pleased to work on it. Thank you, Sanjay.


Hi everyone, Sean with jaspys.com for personal breaks, doing a 2020 Penini Chronicles draft picks football hobby box for Mark, he's already picked out his box, now let's rip it. We got a fat pack for the first pack, Mark, so let's hope that's a good sign. Courtney Davis, Patrick Taylor Jr., Steven Montez, Denzel Mims, Kalyza Lipscomb, Rookie Patch Otto, Albert Aquabonam, nice patch there from Phoenix, that's number seven out of 30, Jalen Régor and Colby Parkinson, CD Lam, Jake Fromm, Cam Akers, Antonio Gandy Golden, Bryson Hopkins, select, that's gold, number nine out of 10, Adam Troutman, Crown Royale, Jerry Judy, Rated Rookie Optic and Tyler Johnson, Isaiah Hodgins, DJ Dallas, Brian Herion, Jonathan Taylor, T Higgins, Benny LeMay, Joe Burrow select, which that was the gold, and Cole Comet, Jared Pinkney, Lynn Bowden Jr., Leviska Chanel, Shane O'Grady, Benjamin Victor, it should just be a relic, Deandre Swift, 209 of 299, Antonio Gibson and Zach Moss, so you still should have two more autos I believe, which we got two packs, so that should make one auto per pack out of this, Albert Aquabonam, LeMichael Pirine, Anthony Gordon, Javon Leak, Anthony McFarland, Otto Isaiah Hodgins from XR, Chase Young and KJ Hamler, oh I missed the numbering on there, that's number four out of five, right on top there, there you go Mark, super low number and last pack, good luck starting off with Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tyler Johnson, Jaylen Hertz, Bryce Perkins, Van Jefferson, Don Russ, Rated Rookie Auto, Jordan Love, Optic Rated Rookie and Chase Claypool, so there's your box Mark, thank you very much and that was a personal break for Mark of 2020 Petunia Chronicles draft picks football, jazfys.com available now, we'll see you guys next time