Okay, so I'm finishing up with today's vlog. I'm really excited to show you guys the end result of what we did today. Today came from a request. The problem is I cannot find the request anywhere on YouTube or anywhere that it was, but the request came from someone awesome, so thank you for that. And the request was for this haircut. It's the Jamie Alexander haircut from Blind Spot. So real quick, I wanna break down my thoughts on how we're gonna accomplish this cut. And so let's get started with that real quick. Hang on. Okay, so this is the haircut breakdown that I wanna give you guys. I wanna show you because when you look at a magazine, a lot of times it's hard to tell what's going on with the haircut. So not only did I look at this magazine cover to base my thoughts on the haircut, but I also looked her up through Google. I watched scenes from the show so I could see exactly what her hair was doing because if a guest asked for this, it doesn't mean I understand what's happening throughout the entire head. The other thing that I look at is how are the layers falling? Because this is a graduation, but it also has a lot of layering within the haircut. So let's just look at the overall shape of the haircut and how much layering is in it. I see layers all the way up into here. Now, I see layers up there, but it also has a little bit of a wave to it. So that means that that layer probably sits a little bit below her pride or ridge. I don't wanna go too short with the layering. A lot of us could get a little layer crazy and we don't want that to happen. When I go through and I do my cutting, I'm gonna base everything on this plane, which might be kind of hard to see. Bear with me guys. So this plane right here is where I'm separating the bottom part of the head to the top part of the head. All of this hair I'm gonna cut straight down at the bottom. So no elevation cutting right here at the chin line. It's gonna allow me to choose the length of the hair that I want. As I work up the rest of the head, once I get past that point and I'm pulling out this hair, then I'm gonna start my layering process, which is gonna come around the round of the head. So you'll see all that happening. And then on the weak side, I'm going to start a vertical layer right in this point right here. So I'm gonna go one length all the way up until this point to get as much weight as I can in this area. And then I'm gonna start pulling the hair straight out and layering it at that point. All right guys, so I hope that makes sense. I hope I didn't completely confuse everyone. The good thing is we got a whole step by step to go. So let's get started with that. All right guys, so we're gonna start off by taking a left-hand side parting. This is a little bit above parietal ridge, but still kind of a deep left-hand side part. You really base that on your guests. So just know that in this haircut, we are doing a celebrity-based haircut, but that doesn't mean you'll do this exact haircut on your guests. Definitely customize it to them. So now I'm gonna go through. You're gonna notice I cut that blunt line at zero degrees elevation, just using my comb for tension, doing the same thing on the opposite side. I wanna start building a nice, heavy base. The great thing about cutting at zero degrees below the occipital bone is that pretty much creates that 45-degree angle for you because of the head shape. So we're working through starting to build that foundation. Notice that I'm using the point of my scissor. I decided to go with a scissor instead of a razor on this cut, but I'm giving it a razored effect. So I'm going through point cutting through every single section using my DB20 scissor. This is a five and a half inch scissor. It's got a really strong blade on it. So I'm going through there and just working that jagged edge throughout the haircut. I love this haircut because it's a PC texture that it has. So I wanna keep that in mind when I'm doing this haircut. Not every haircut has to have nice blunt lines. So now you can see how I took that diagonal forward section or parting through there. And now I'm just going through cutting at again zero-degree elevation, no tension at all, letting the hair fall naturally and just working that line across the cheekbone. And then really just cutting the hair as it falls. I wanna cut this more of a square shape around the head. So in the back, I overdirected back towards me and on the sides, I keep the elevation down. I cut my square horizontal line there. Now I'm shifting into vertical sections. The reason I'm going vertical now is I wanna focus on weight removal. I want to create those layers. So right around parietal ridge, the top of the section, I just wanna soften the way that the hair falls. So when you look at, if I were to cut that entire side section blunt, it would be way too heavy. So I'm just rounding off the edge and softening the weight distribution on the side of the head. So she gets that layer feel. Now I'm gonna work the other side working horizontal and you could really see the elevation now and how high I'm lifting it. It builds in such a nice shape. So just base this on the density, guys. Don't look at the elevation that I'm doing and say that's exactly what I need to do. Look at the elevation that you need for your guests.  Just depends on the shape you're trying to build in the back. Continuing that diagonal forward section just like I did on the opposite side, going through, cutting zero tension and just working my scissor across. This is another preference. So if your guest wants to have the hair go up towards their jawbone, it can fit perfectly there. You can really customize where you want that length to sit. So working up to that bridal ridge, combing everything down, keeping no elevation. Again, I wanna build a strong baseline. This is a key thing because a lot of, if you notice how the hair works, obviously it drops down further in the nape of the neck so it's a thicker density in the back of the head than it is on the side of the head. So going through there, cutting more of a blunt line in the side of the head and then going through now and layering with the round of the head. So think about this as pretty much 90 degrees, maybe a slight bit lower towards the top of the section but we're just working that round of the head because in the pictures that you see of Jamie's haircut, I'm saying Jamie like I know her, Jamie Alexander's haircut is that it has that kind of round layered feel to the whole haircut. So I really love the way that those layers fall on her head shape. So still working diagonal back following the round of the head. This is where we talk about round haircutting because this will help the hair kind of flow backwards. There's really no over direction in this part of the cut. So just going through working all the way to the hairline. Still point cutting, you'll notice I'm still trying to create that kind of jagged edge textured feel to the haircut and we're actually gonna go in and create more texture in the dry cut. So that's the last little bit. Now don't worry about that disconnection in the front that's on purpose. So we're gonna go in and cut that in a little bit. Finish up the blow dry, use my Ergo paddle brush which I love, I talk about it in every video. My vibrous straight iron going through there and just polishing it up. This is to get it ready for dry cutting. This is not to get it ready for the end result. Now I'm going in with my Mizutani type Z dual texture scissor. This is the texture scissor that I keep in my case at all times because there's no full blade in this scissor, it's all teeth. So it has a nice slide through the hair, there's no blade to get tangled up on it. So what hair that it cuts, it cuts and the hair that it doesn't, there's nothing, there's no friction in there so you can just slide through the hair really nice. So I really like that scissor and what I'm doing is just going through and softening the ends. So this is sort of like point cutting but it's just a simple way to go in and just soften the ends and not take out too much weight. Now what I'm gonna do is I wanna match up this side. So we did have more hair coming through so I'm gonna take my dual texture scissor and just chop at it and it doesn't take long but you just kinda work the texture scissor back and forth until you get completely through the hair. What that's gonna do is give me that shattered edge as opposed to going through and doing it with a blunt scissor. So cool technique to try and works really well. And that is our finished cut. All right, so there's one thing that's missing that's definitely hair color so I'm gonna do that real quick and then I'll show you the end result. All right, so hair color's done. I used a 3A, 3 Ash to really just give it that smoky feel. I think it matches up really well with what Jamie Alexander's hair color looks like and gives you guys more of a visual of the end result. So I'm going through with my Palmachal Neuro Wand Iron and just working the hair around it and then I grab my Bercato Carve Texture Cream which I use in a lot of my shorter haircuts because it just adds that kind of pieceiness and texture and then we use a light hairspray just to give it that effect. Now this is a more straight effect. Now I'm gonna go in and do more of a kind of wet, messy look which was in the magazine and tuck it behind the ear. That seems to be a pretty big trend for what she does when they style her hair. You can see it in the magazine here and that is our end result. They're pretty similar. Let me know what you think in the comments and if you like it, thanks. All right guys, so that is the end of this step by step. Thank you for hanging in there, posting the comments if you did. If you made it this far, I love seeing that and also make sure you check out freesaloneducation.com. We got a ton of tools and cool stuff on there for you guys if you wanna purchase it. Also, let me know in the comments below what videos you'd like to see next, whether it's a haircut, men's cut, whatever. I'm always open for new ideas and I wanna keep this going. So thank you guys so much for checking out the videos every day and following along and we'll see you guys on the next one. Thanks.


Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus announced the next Independence variant, Littoral Combat Ship, will be named USS Tulsa. Tulsa will be the second ship to honor Oklahoma's second largest city. Naval Ship Systems Engineering Station announced the installation of the first Arleigh Burke clash destroyer, Remote Halo Carbon Alarm. The new alarm installed on USS Shoup is a warning beacon tied directly to the main Halo Carbon Alarm in the AC plant. This alarm will alert sailors if a gas leak has contaminated the air before they enter the space. DDG's 51-112 are scheduled to receive the new alarm. Each installation will take two days and can be done piercide. Have you ever wanted to wear your personal fitness device to work but security told you no? A new NAV admin authorizes the wear of personal wearable fitness devices such as Job on Up and Fitbit and Select Navy Spaces. For more information, visit the Chief of Naval Personnel website.


Welcome to circuit royal all right, I've Cut the stream and then I've uh I've cut the stream and made a different stream like I don't know Do not know what what what happened? Locked on here So let's okay. We're one way away so that we we got a win canina now arriving at me John Yep, so I don't know if the streams any better I don't know why it keeps doing this to me. I don't know quality is good and suddenly it just Cut out my own path Don't sneak up on me like that Just a reminder that you'll never see me coming Stop revving John Depends. What are you ordering you rig?  Oh, definitely next year now, okay? Oh Damn it. Thank you healer protect your healer. Yes. Oh my God. Yes. Oh my cutie. Yes. Oh my God I'm sure always trying to 4070 in 2023. I haven't thought that far ahead But sure if although you don't this cana usually You know Delivery outside of Metro Manila Because it's just no fun really doing deliveries with inside the city Oh It looks good Nice guys was free for doing like way the heck out there.  Get fudge.   Who requires healing? Who requires healing? Why are you so far away? Let's not be like super aggressive. I mean Okay, I mean I was sort of running towards somebody outside. What happened. I see you so slow Okay Um, yeah, people have been complaining that the streams have been I don't know what it is. It's like It starts out fine and then not so fine, but Here we are we've um To get some rank now Indian play of the game and I resurrected somebody I rescue somebody Ah, okay team kill them Yay Stick me in bronze silver Silver one like I've no I don't even have any idea What this is Silver, okay All right. Um, that was my goal for today. Thanks for watching. I hope the stream wasn't so bad I don't know what it is. It's some Like I haven't changed any setting or anything. It was working fine and then suddenly Uh, yeah, it gets really choppy and stuff. Um, super annoying, but yeah, thanks for joining me the first time I've finished ranking up in overwatch 2 Silver one, so I'm gonna go online now. I guess it's bronze and silver. So I guess not too bad They stuck me with silver, uh, initially Not that I know any other healers aside from mercy and mercy and Moira. All right. Thanks for watching guys. Enjoy the rest of the Thanks for having Jan You don't have to figure out what's going on with the stream. It's kind of annoying. Should I remove all the firewalls? Okay, I'll take that this


Decision point one is that the Scout's ID's are in the access audience. The viewer.io will be stopped near the city. Establishment of support fire 1 and 2, and we'll talk to that. And occupy support fire position 1. And so that'll be, you can go right to the SB on or about 9. So at that same time. Anti-tank, anti-personal mines. We'll be collecting with Scout team 1. Scout team 2 will move here. Scout team 3 will move here. And civilian casualties are minimized as much as possible. Our mission. 3-6-6 armor, isolate and south into and out of Junction City. I say again, 3-6-6 armor isolates objective Anaheim. No littering. Next. This time we'll be getting into the scheme of movement in the newer bike phase. So I'll kind of start us all looking for that point to ID that point of reach. So once you find it, ID it. We're going to begin to reduce proof and mark that lane. Another election scheme for phase 2. Answering PIRs 1, 2, and 3. Where is the Bible?


The MN2 plus doped CS3-CU2-X5, X equal CL, BR, I, perovskite-like derivative powder material was successfully fabricated by a one-step solid-state reaction. This material exhibits strong STE emission peaks at 460 nm and 550 nm, respectively. Furthermore, the incorporation of MN2 plus into the lattice of CS3-CU2-X5 enables the energy transfer from the STEs to the MN2 plus, resulting in a broadened emission spectrum, 400 to 620 nm. In addition, the blue emission peak at 460 nm is significantly reduced due to the energy transfer from the STEs to the MN2 plus. As a result, a white light emitting diode, WLED, with a CRI value of 94.5% and a high luminance of 1,000 candelas per square meter can be achieved. This article was authored by Yao Yulu, C.C. Jing, Zeng Shui-G, and others. We are article.tv, links in the description below.


Yes, I've never seen someone enjoy their stuff. I think it's really good. Yes. And if you could collaborate with anyone in life this year, who would you collaborate with? In life. We drove ensemble. No, not. Not. Not.


Ladies and gentlemen, have you ever wondered why mountains captivate us, why their majestic peaks inspire awe and beckon us to ascend them? Just like mountains, the challenges we face tower over us, daring us to climb. Today, I'm here to remind you that those very challenges are not barriers, but stepping stones, waiting to be scaled, let's set forth on this exhilarating ascent together. Every challenge that stands before you is an invitation, an invitation to grow, to learn, to rise above the ordinary. They are nature's way of testing our metal, pushing our boundaries and asking, how much do you want it? But while challenges shape our journey, it's our determination that truly defines who we are. It's that inner fire, the underyielding spirit that says, no matter how tough the climb, I will persevere, because it's not the mountain we conquer, but ourselves. Think of those most inspiring individuals you know. Were they handed their achievements, or did they face adversity, battling against the odds with sheer willpower? History is replete with tales of remarkable men and women who faced enormous challenges. Yes, it was their indomitable determination that curved their names in stone, turning them from ordinary to legendary. Stories and conquer, it's not just a phrase, it's a call to arms, a call to embrace every challenge, every setback, every doubt, and use them as the fuel, fuel to drive you further than you ever imagined, to achieve heights you previously thought unreachable. Remember, it's not about avoiding the storm, but learning to dance in the rain. It's about turning every stumbling block into a stepping stone. It's about letting every know you hear push you closer to that triumphant yes. As we part today, hold this truth close to your heart. The world will throw its toughest battles at you, not because you're weak, but because it knows of the warrior within you. Stand tall, embrace each challenge, let your determination shine, and let the world see you rise and conquer. Today, tomorrow, and after every ascend, with confidence and purpose, for the summit awaits your triumphant arrival.


So, I'm really embarrassed after such a wonderful paper instead of papers, but rather than give one specific paper, I'd like to offer a broader overview of the challenges that central banks and the ECB face. My comments do summarize and extend a bunch of written work. And I put the list on the slides in case some of this sparks your interest. The, I'm going to broadly go through the challenges in order from time to complexity from interest rates, inflation, mental stability, COVID and future risks, including climate. So let's start with the supposedly easy one. The simple single most basic task of central bank is to control inflation via the short run interest rate. And behind this task are some important facts, which I illustrate with these graphs. The first I've got the CPI and interest rates. And the second slide I've got the core CPI less than energy and interest rates as well with the US on top and the arrow on the bottom. So the graphs emphasize what you know the ECB has routinely failed to make its 2% interest rate target. And the US and Japan have similarly struggled. So why is this now before complaining? I don't think this is a big problem. I like zero inflation. Indeed, I like a price level target. I grew up in the 1970s. So if I were in charge of a central bank around the end of last year, 1% inflation unemployment at half centrally lows, insanely low interest rates. I would have rolled out a big mission accomplished banner and gone on a long cruise. It's a good thing I don't run a central bank. I salute the honesty of our central bankers for not worrying that they didn't for worrying that they didn't attain their target and worrying about what this means for their ability to control inflation or deflation. Now, second thing you see in the graphs is that interest rates and inflation are positively correlated in long run of the business cycle. And moreover, at the far right, suggestively, when the US raised interest rates, inflation went up and when Europe didn't, inflation did not go up. Interesting fact. The core CPI, less food and energy, shows even better the remarkable fact that inflation is even more stable at the effective lower bound than it was when central banks were able to move interest rates. Remarkable stability despite nothing moving with interest rates. So these facts raise a deep question. What is the mechanism by which interest rates raise or lower inflation. There's three theories here. In all of them interest rate equals real rate plus inflation is a steady state. The question is, is it a stable steady state or an unstable steady state and determinant or indeterminate. In the classic ISLM adaptive expectations model, which pervades most central bankers thinking, it's an unstable steady state as illustrated by my seal. If you peg interest rates, inflation must spiral up or down the ball flies off the seals nose. If the central bank lowers interest rates, inflation rises. The seal moves one way the ball goes the other way, but then the central bank has to quickly catch up. And the seal can stabilize inflation by following a Taylor rule moving its nose more than one. In rational expectations models, New Keynesian models, I equals R plus by is a stable steady state as illustrated by Professor calculus on the bottom. And inflation will eventually settle down to an interest rate. If the central bank lowers interest rates, inflation might briefly rise, but then it'll follow interest rates downward. Now in the classic New Keynesian model, inflation gets multiple equilibria at an interest rate peg and becomes more volatile. If you add active fiscal policy to the New Keynesian view, you get stability and germinacy. The sudden deflation would mean governments have to raise taxes to pay off bondholders. Governments aren't about to do that bondholders know it and that's what stops the deflation at the zero bound. Now these three models are basically impossible to tell apart in normal times interest rates move positively with inflation in equilibrium. So how do you tell them apart? Well run an experiment. Stop the seal's nose. Stop Professor calculus' hand and let's watch what happens. We did that in 2008. Nothing happened. There was no deflation spiral, there was no multiple equilibrium volatility, and there's also no inflation despite a 3,000% increase in reserves dealing a fatal blow to MV equals PY. Macro economics is seldom offered so clear an experiment in which rival theories make unambiguous and robust predictions. The usual ISLM view, which describes central bankers pretty well, clearly predicted a deflation spiral and it did not happen. That view is wrong. Next, the evident fact of stability at the interest rate peg and both of the New Keynesian theories with active or passive fiscal policy lead to an uncomfortable but unavoidable prediction. A widely anticipated, steady, persistent rise in interest rates raises inflation as long as fiscal policy is okay. If Professor calculus wants the ball to the move to the right, you should slowly and steadily move his hand to the right. Now I emphasize all the caveats there anticipated unexpected movements can send inflation the opposite way 1980 was unexpected. Steady and persistent are crucial to to see the long run stability on top of short run dynamics and and fiscal policy important lowering interest rates isn't going to help that as well. Now, I've been writing about this. Do I know it's true? No. Theory and data scream it, but a half a century of tradition says otherwise. My point today is to ask questions, not to advocate particular answers. The ECB's core mission is to hit an inflation target, which it isn't doing. Theory and fact seem to suggest that the steering wheel is hooked up the reverse of what everyone says it is. Now shouldn't figuring this basic question out be the focus of an intense research program. And shouldn't a policymaker who has to wait different theories in real time and sort of a Bayesian way with some weight on this possibility. Final thought is the short term interest rate even the right instrument. That's worth asking to I've thought elsewhere about targeting the spread between indexed and non index debt, which should nail inflation down. And there's lots of other proposals out there. Next challenge, the strategic review, which the US Fed has just about finished its strategic review. And the ECB is compute completing one and Bravo to both institutions, rethinking basics every now and then is really healthy. So let me offer you my view of what's coming out of the US strategic review as you finish up the ECB strategic review. First in the language of policymakers, I detect regret over raising the interest rate when unemployment declined on worries of future inflation because inflation didn't in the end rise and you can see that in the graph. I've got unemployment inflation, the federal funds rate, they raise the federal funds rate because they saw unemployment very low and there was no, the inflation never did come out. That's really unusual. Again, maybe too much honesty. Any other institution that said inflation's coming unless we do something goes ahead and does something and inflation doesn't come would say, well, look good for us because of our wise action inflation didn't break out. Employments and historic lows soft landing mission accomplished. Well, they didn't do that, but that's it. That's an interesting observation on the fed. But the main message I think to come out of it for policy is the Fed is going to follow more of a pure inflation target, waiting to see actual inflation before raising rates. And it'll even allow inflation to rise somewhat over target. Some people have talked about 2.5%. That policy is a little reminiscent of the 1970s, which didn't turn out so well. Let me remind you. But perhaps there's other reasons for what happened in the 1970s. Second message, the Fed is going to put a lot more weight on inclusive employment. It wants to hope that more inflation will push unemployment down among low income and minority groups. Now, this is really praiseworthy goal, but the methods pretty curious to the static Phillips curve is a permanent trade off between inflation and unemployment was also last seen in the 1960s, and that didn't turn out so well. Now, in my view, inclusive employment is an important overlooked province of micro economic and labor market policy. And one lesson later today, central banks can't fix everything and they shouldn't try. Third, the bed basically announces interest rates will be zero for a long time. And final observation, the Bayesian weight of my proposition that one can raise inflation by slowly and predictably raising interest rates. The basing weight on that remains zero. Now, the policy review the Fed policy review also has important lessons for academics not policy. It's curious that the languages are quite different. It represents a victory of forward guidance over quantitative easing or negative interest rates as stimulators. The ECB evaluation of negative interest rates will be very interesting in this context. The Fed's also even more vague about just how much inflation it will tolerate, how much it will let past shortfalls guide present excesses, and so forth. So it represents one more victory of discretion over rules, much to the sorrow of my colleague John Taylor. Now, the victory of forward guidance strikes me as a puzzle. And I offer this in company of academics who are trying to advise central bankers. It's a really strange prediction of New Keynesian models. And I show you a graph from a past paper that illustrates forward guidance in a standard New Keynesian model. So in these graphs, the economy is going to be at the zero bound for five years. And as you move across the graphs, the central bank delays its lift off for progressively longer periods. And now watch the red arrows, the intersection of the red inflation and blue output lines of the left axis. You can see that small delays in lift off have very strong stimulative powers today. That's forward guidance. But this is way too strong. As you can see, promises further in the future have stronger effects today because these solutions stable forward explode backward. This is an experiment. I asked my wife that if I promised to cook dinner one night five years from now, would she would she clean up for a week? It didn't work. These effects also get stronger as prices get less sticky without limit until you get the frictionless limit point and the whole effect vanishes. Does anyone believe that a central banker will take an action in the future that he or she believes not best at the time to fulfill a forward guidance promise made years ago? Now you all know these jokes. For these reasons and more power for forward guidance is regarded as a bug, a promise to be a problem to be fixed in New Keynesian models. Mike Woodford, Sevilla Gebex and many others have long papers with lots of equations to modify expectations to fix the bug. I have a short simple paper that fixes the bug with active fiscal policy. It's really strange that this model, regarded as a puzzle to be fixed among academics, emerged victorious from the Fed's policy review. What do I make of that? Well, I think central bankers like to think everybody else listens to their speeches. I think the idea that speeches are a powerful policy tool. But really, I think this story captures a deep disconnect between academic modelers and the policymakers largely unreconstructed ISLM worldview. That's a warning for you academics and a deep and troubling lesson for the ECB to consider during its policy review. Let's move on through time and scope to financial regulation. So after the 2008 crisis, it was obvious that regulation needed some reform. And there was a clear choice. On the one hand, we could have absorbed Doug Diamond's favorite famous dictum. Financial crises are always and everywhere caused by problems related to short term debt. Now that insight suggests the Atmati-Hellwig approach. Purge the system of run-prone short term financing and thereby create a resilient financial system in which people can lose money without bringing down the system. Our central banks and regulators chose a different path, double down on regulating asset risk taking. When the crisis comes, prop up asset prices so that indebted institutions don't lose money and bail out creditors. The project aspired to but never quite implemented the lofty macro-prudential goals. Direct the quantity of credit, diagnose and softly deflate bubbles before they grow, and somehow keep in check the consequence rampant moral hazard. The Euro area faced a second crisis and a second question that of sovereign default. Can sovereigns in your currency union default? If not, who pays and how do you stop the attendant temptation to borrow too much? The ECB bought sovereign bonds to do what it takes and to buy breathing room for structural reform. Unfortunately, like St. Thomas' desire for chastity structural reform seems to be always not quite yet. These questions are also still hanging. And all of this stopped moving about four or five years ago. When a crisis is five years in the rearview mirror, the energy to stop to finish reform flags until of course the next crisis comes. Let me just, I'm having a technical difficulty and I want to move on here to regulation in the post-COVID era. So in the post-COVID era, let me offer some observations and these are based on the US scene just because I'm American and I don't follow what's going on in Europe as well as I should. In the COVID crisis, our Federal Reserve intervened quickly and massively in Treasury markets. Once again, a hedge fund overleveraged an arbitrage strategy and there were also a lot of sales from foreign holders. Big banks hobbled by liquidity rules whose defects had been known for years ran out of market-making ability. The Fed unwilling to let prices drop bought massively and to this day, Fed officials are not sure the Treasury market can stand on its own. The Fed went on to save money market funds, prop up the prices of corporate, state and local bonds and then doled out billions of dollars in direct loans. Our government then bailed out the airlines. When did airlines become systemically important and we're on the edge of bailing out stake and local governments and student loans. It is a hard truth that if you want to prevent bankruptcy during a crisis like the COVID crisis, you bail out existing bondholders. That overhang overhangs everyone. So in short, everything that we promised would never happen again happened again. Save bailing out the big banks. Well, I'm sympathetic. You do what you have to do in a crisis. Yet last time at least there was talk and promises that later we would solve the moral hazard and no one seems to be talking about that. Why should anyone keep spare balance sheet capacity or liquidity around to buy stuff in the next crisis knowing the Fed will stop in at the slightest hint of trouble. Why not assume you can always sell assets instantly on the way down in very liquid markets to the Fed if need be if the Fed's always going to provide liquidity. Why should any company or local government not borrow like crazy and why should investors not buy the debt knowing the Fed will bail out and prop up prices if a crisis comes. Are we perpetually in a financial system of private gain, public losses, a central bank put of price and liquidity, and if not, who will put the genie back in the bottle and when. That seems like a good question for central banks. Now let me think even bigger. Let us move on to the risks ahead. Central banks next job is to try to look forward and assess the big risks ahead. What big unforeseen events could cause a financial calamity. How can we brace the financial system against those events. Central banks curiously don't seem to do the kind of contingency planning that military planners do. They should financial euro and covert crisis scream at us don't disparage big unlikely unforeseen events. They happen more than sooner than you think. Now, to get you thinking about these issue I listed here some potential clam financial calamities and keep in mind, each of these will be sparked by a real crisis so there's a real crisis going on while you think about these financial problems. And I focused here on internal problems that I think people are overlooking rather than external asset classes that might blow up but you can imagine those yourself. So what happens when central bank credit risks go belly up. In the end credit risk has to end up with taxpayers but how does that happen without a financial chaos. Sovereign risks. Italy could default. US states and local governments could default US pensions could default. There could be a massive emerging market bond run. Are you ready. Advanced country sovereign risk exists. The US is now at 100% debt to GDP ratio, and we seem to increase that by about a third in every crisis. This cannot go on, especially with unreformed long term finances. What happens in the next crisis when the US needs 5 trillion for bailouts and stimulus 10 trillion to roll over debt and markets say no. What happens if the US faces an interest rate doom loop. What happens if when Congress decides that paying checks to voters is more important than paying debts to Wall Street fat cats and Chinese central bankers and institutes an emergency 20% haircut on US debt. What happens to the financial system if the US cannot borrow to prop up prices bailout stimulate and nobody wants our debt. It can't happen you say. Did you foresee a pandemic. Advanced country debt and currency crisis have happened before don't count on trends to continue with no reason. Now here, let me offer some concrete advice, mostly to say that there is concrete advice to be offered. First, get credit and sovereign risk off central bank balance sheets and onto Treasury balance sheets where in the event of collapse it transfers visibly to taxpayers and where politically accountable authorities acknowledge the credit risk and the implied subsidies. Second, remember Doug Diamond financial crises are always and everywhere caused by problems related to short term debt. All the crisis dynamics of sovereign debt would vanish if governments were financed by long term debt not rolling over short term debt so encourage long term financing. Now you might say long term debt markets don't exist. They're to a liquid will make them exist and make them liquid central banks were invented starting with the Bank of England in 1694 to create a liquid market long term government debt. Don't make matters worse. When Treasuries issue long term debt and central banks buy up that debt issuing overnight reserves they shorten maturity structure. So borrow with fixed rather than floating rates. But mostly, I don't want to advocate these I'm here to point out there are challenges rather than specific answers and just I want to suggest there are answers that we can think about central banks can do to make the financial system more resilient. Now let's think a little bit about the events which could spark financial challenges. What if we have a real pandemic? Let me remind you this was just a fire drill. Plague cholera typhus influenza smallpox they all ravaged Europe in the world. There's a bug out there that kills 20% or more of the people it infects. Terrorists or terroristic regimes could engineer such a bug. It would be a dandy way to hold the world hostage. Are you thinking about the financial calamity this would cause. What if the bug kills half of the world's crops. What if we'll look at my picture we've got plague and famine war. What if China invades Taiwan what if Russia you fill in the gaps, what if the Middle East explodes, which will likely involve nuclear weapons. When sometime this century the credit card machines go dark. Imagine there's a rumor that city has been hacked and the accounts are emptied and everyone goes to the ATMs to get cash now. Political unraveling. What if the US enters a constitutional crisis. This is my call from the US it's closer than you think it only happened once before. What if the EU breaks up. Let me remind you the Brits left others might leave internal conflicts might spike what then for the ECB the euro and the European financial system. A central bank should be wargaming these and more yes each one's unlikely, but one or more of these or something that I haven't thought of is almost sure to happen in the next century. And that makes me to my last great puzzle. In the context of all this misery. Why are the ECB the Bank of England the BIS and the IMF consumed with one and only one risk climate risk. I think this is a dangerous mistake. Now let me offer a disclaimer here. You might infer from my employer that I have unpopular ideas on this. I do not argue that climate change is fake or unimportant. None of my comments reflect any arguments with those scientific facts or the desirability of a strong climate policy. My question to you is whether the ECB other central banks and international institutions should appoint themselves to take on climate policy or other important social environmental and political causes without a clear mandate to do so from the politically accountable leaders. The ECB and others are not just embarking on climate policy general. They're embarking on the enforcement of one particular set of climate policies, policies to force banks and private companies to defund fossil fuel, even while the alternatives are not available at scale, and policies to provide subsidized funding to an ill defined set of green projects. I want to be concrete concrete. So I quote here from executive board member is a bill schnadels recent speech. I don't want to pick on her, but she wrote a really good speech, and she expresses the climate agenda very well, and her speech bears the ECB imprimatur. So her recommendations or her writing of the recommendations of this project. As Prudential Supervisor, we have an obligation to protect the safety and soundness of the banking sector. This includes making sure that banks properly assess the risks from carbon intensive exposures. Let me speak outside out loud, the Unclothed Emperor fact. Climate change does not pose any financial risk at the one five or even 10 year horizon at which one can conceivably assess the risk to bank assets. Risk means variants, unforeseen events. We know exactly where the climate is going in the next five or 10 years. Hurricanes floods, though influenced by climate change are very well modeled for the next five to 10 years. Advanced economies and financial systems are remarkably impervious to whether anyway. The relative demand for fossil fuel for salt turn of energy isn't easy is as easy or hard to forecast as anything else in the economy. Exxon bonds are factually safer financially than Tesla bonds and they're easier to value. The main risk to fossil fuel companies is that regulators will destroy them as the ECB promises to do prompt proposes to do. And that's a risk that regulators themselves control and political risk is a standard part of bond valuation. That banks are risky because of exposure to carbon emitting companies. The carbon emitting company debt is financially risky because of unexpected changes in climate in ways that conventional risk measures don't capture the banks need to be regulated away from that exposure because of risk to the financial system is I'm sorry, nonsense. Next, there's a pervasive regime essentially of shame boycott the fest and sanctions, link the eligibility of securities as collateral to the disclosure regime of the issuing firms. Now you know where disclosure leads all companies that issue debt will be pressured to cut off disparaged investments and make whatever green investments the ECB is blessing these days. And last the ECB should print money directly to fund green projects, reassessing the benchmark allocation of our private asset purchase programs, because in the presence of market failures the market is not achieving efficient outcomes. Now you might say, climate's a crisis. Central banks have to pitch in and help with the cause. They should tell banks to stop lending to the evil fossil fuel companies and they should print money and hand it out to worthy green projects now. But central banks are not allowed to do this and for very good reasons. A central bank in a democracy is not an all purpose do good agency with authority to subsidize what it decides to be worthy and defund what it dislikes and to force banks and companies to do the same. A central bank was leaders don't regularly face voters lives by an iron contract freedom and independence, but stay within your limited and mandated powers. The ECB, in particular, lives by a particularly delineated and limited mandate. The ECB was not set up, was forbidden to decide what industries or regions need subsidizing, which should be scaled back, direct bank investment across Europe, set the price of bonds and print money to subsidize direct lending. Those are intensely political acts only elected representatives can take on our commission acts like that. If I took the words green out of this proposal you, EU member states and EU voters would react with shock and outrage of that proposal. And that's why this movement goes through the convolutions of pretending that defunding fossil fuels and subsidizing green projects, however desirable, has something to do with systemic rich risk which it patently does not. Here's another way to put the observation which is my second set of quotes on the slides because I want you to take a test. There's two ways to interpret this proposal interpretation a we looked even handedly at all the risks in the financial system, the ones listed on the last slide, and the most important financial risk we came up with just happens to be climate. Interpretation be we really want to get involved in climate policy. How can we shoehorn that into our limited mandate or pay attention only to inflation and financial stability. Well, how do you interpret the proposal. I think it's pretty obvious it's the latter, and most importantly, I think it's obvious that the mass majority of people, EU voters, reading the proposal will interpret it as the latter and that's what counts to my point. Eating this perception is the central emission of this speech and everything else I've read on the subject, a concrete description of just how carbon sins are going to be measured. Read the quote carbon and meeting doesn't just mean fossil fuel companies. It means cement manufacturers, aluminum producers, construction, agriculture, transport, everything else that emits carbon. Will the carbon risk assessment and defunding project really extend that far in any sort of honest or qualitative way, quantitative way, or is carbon emitting just a code word to hound the unpopular fossil fuel. In the disclosure and bond buying project, who will decide what is a green project already cost benefit analysis, euros spent per ton of carbon removed for degrees of temperature reduced per euros of 2100 GDP increased is pretty shoddy in this area. By what process will the ECB avoid switchgrass, corn ethanol, high speed trains to nowhere and other past follies. How will it allow politically unpopular projects like nuclear power, carbon capture, natural gas via fracking residential zoning reform or geoengineering ventures, all of which undeniably scientifically lower carbon and global temperatures, or adaptation projects which undeniably scientifically lower its GDP cost. Actually, where is this analysis for the program before embarking I challenge the ECB transparently calculate how many degrees of temperature will this plan lower, and how many euros of global 2100 GDP will it raise. How will the ECB then resist political pressure to subsidize all sorts of boom goggles. If you don't have the set and reveal the technical competence to make this sort of calculation, the project will be perceived as just made up numbers to advance a political cause, and then all the central banks activities will be tainted by that association. This will end badly. Not because the policies are wrong, but because they are intensely political, and they make up mockery of a central banks limited mandates. If this continues the next ECB presidential appointment will all be about climate policy, who gets the subsidized green lending who got defunded, what the next set of causes to be not about interest rates and financial stability. The ECB presidents will become champions for each country's desired subsidies. Watch the US Supreme Court appointments for a preview of where you're headed. Countries and industries that lose out will object. This is just the sort of thing that prompted the Brexit. If the ECB crosses this second Rubicon buying sovereign and corporate debt was the first be ready for more. The math is already pushing redistribution. The US Fed, though it stayed away from climate is rushing to inclusive employment and racial justice goals. There's a lot of problems in the world. Once you start climate policy, and you so obviously break all the rules to do it. How can you resist the climber to defund disclose and subsidize the other causes. How will you resist demands to take up regional development, prop up dying industries, subsidize politicians pet projects and all the other sins that the ECB is explicitly enjoying from committing a central bank that's so bright brazenly breaks its mandates has to lose its independence. It's authority and people's trust in its objectivity and technical competence to fight inflation deflation, regulate banks and stop financial crises.  Go ask for an expanded mandate. If the EU explicitly task the ECB to implement carbon policies via defunding bank regulation, subsidized investment, all of my objections vanish. An explicit mandate to address climate and only climate would also help the ECB to defend itself against the coming demand that it move on to every other problem. So let me summarize. The Western world faces a crisis of trust in our institutions. This crisis is fed by a not inaccurate perception. The elites who run our institutions don't know what they're doing. They're politicized, and they are expanding their actions far beyond the authority granted by accountable representatives. Where do you get trust and independence? It has to be earned by evident competence and institutional restraint. Yet where are we summarizing my whole talk? Central banks are not obviously competent to target inflation with interest rates. They're floundering to stop financial crises by any means other than wanton bailouts. They're not beginning to address the obvious huge risks lying ahead, and now they want to determine and implement their own climate change policies. You don't want the agency that delivers drinking water to make its list of socially and environmentally favored businesses and start turning off the water to disfavored companies, nor should central banks provide liquidity period. Now, let's acknowledge there is a popular movement that wants all the institutions of society to jump into the pressing social and political goals of the moment and the heck with the boring legalities. But I hope all of you understand that those constraints are essential for a functioning democratic society and for functioning independent technocratic institutions like the ECB, and incidentally for making durable progress on the very important social and political goals. Central banks should be competent, trusted, narrow, independent, and boring. A good central bank policy review should refocus them on their core narrow mission and let other institutions of society address big political causes as boring as that might be. Thank you. Thank you very much, John. As you said yourself, the ECB is in the middle of a strategy review and hearing what you call out of the box views on these important matters is of course something we embrace very much as we reflect on these issues. And indeed, that's also why Veronica's paper was included because while we embarked on the strategy review also the pandemic came along, and so we have to reflect on that as well. So while I wait for the questions to come in, let me maybe start of the discussion. I was wondering whether we should, whether it's more clarifying questions, should we draw a link between your first challenges on the monetary policy and the challenges that come later, especially three and four. So to kind of rephrase it, if the link between interest rates and inflation is as unclear as you make it. And central banks don't acknowledge that and use this as a key tool to boost inflation. Are there side effects along the way while they do that and especially in what you consider these other challenges to be in the fiscal and financial domain. Please unmute John. There's lots of people who'd like to have a mute button on me. I do think that the monetary and fiscal policy are more intertwined than commonly given credit for and I would encourage thinking about the fiscal limits of monetary policy in the presence of some sort of sovereign debt crisis inflation is going to happen, no matter what central banks do set in the presence of large debts central banks are going to face large big pressure not to raise interest rates precisely to keep debt financing costs low that's how we ran. This is after World War Two financial repression to keep interest rates low and the Fed kept interest rates low to keep interest costs and the government debt down so the big picture is that you should be worrying about sovereign debts a lot more than you and that that is deeply going to be integrated with your ability to fight inflation should have come out now nobody's worried about inflation but you know you need you need that inflation and the inflation package handy if you because nobody was worried about pandemics either. And there I think, and likewise fighting deflation, at least my understanding why we didn't have deflation is a set of fiscal commitments and the ability to run deliberately unbacked fiscal expansions is how you got to fight deflation. So I would, in short, I think the parts that fit well together are that your monetary and inflation fighting review should integrate fiscal and monetary concerns. Thank you. I'm reading a question to you from Klaus Maso who thanks you says excellent talk. You're saying that the Fed put supports a game which ensures private gain that's public expense. So does overtime not shift wealth to the rich away from less wealthy taxpayers or the uninformed retail investors and then maybe undermine aggregate demand to what some academics have called the savings glut of the rich pushing down our star. And certainly transfers wealth to the well connected the financially savvy those who know how to run the regulatory system to people who have the Treasury Secretary's private phone number in their back pocket and know how to say I'm I would say that the interaction between mark to market value of wealth and aggregate demand seems to me rather overstated. You know a lot of the wealth distribution we're seeing now is simply the fact that the same consumption or dividends dream has a higher price. The lower interest and discount rate. So inequality of wealth does not mean greater inequality of wealth when asset prices rise, because interest rates decline does not mean greater inequality of lifetime consumption. Let me try that again interest rates go down. That means prices of the same consumption stream go up. So if and also asset prices go up. So the same dividends the same consumption stream now has a larger price. So in a wealth a lot of wealth inequality is driven by the fact that asset prices have gone up as interest rates have gone down and that does not imply a greater possibility for greater lifetime consumption. They do better the second time I thought the first time was awfully confused. I'll leave that to you. Michele Lenzer is wondering whether, at least in the long run, climate policy may affect inflation and that sense should not be also in the central banks domain. So again, I like the way it only happened late last night I stated it. If you think about does climate policy, does climate somehow affect inflation and therefore do we have an excuse to meddle around with climate, you can come up with a story. If you think about what are the prime causes of inflation, and where on that list would climate policy come if we didn't care independently about climate policy, I got to put a way down on the list so yeah you can come up with some stories. In the end inflation is about the value of government debt that people want to hold that are not. And actually climate policy can make that worse.  So you're you're choosing to reduce productivity in order to do good for the environment. So climate policy could actually be inflationary but primarily you know paper stuff with taxes you don't get inflation inflation is really in in a big sense uncorrelated climate change. And then the last question, and that visiting your concern is what you make of the text deductibility of interest, especially on short term that with that be a solution and maybe I can add sort of a more general take on this. I mean, I think you laid out many uncertainties that it seems as this one certainty we can all agree on which is that the world would will end up following this pandemic with more debt. So, leaving on a more positive note how to what to do about that. Thank you so much Annette, because I touched briefly on something that matters to me a lot that are the central problem of financial crisis is that our financial system is loaded is it's the liabilities not the assets. Tesla Google Facebook are far more risky assets than a portfolio of mortgage backed securities and bonds. Why do we worry about the banks because the banks are financed by short term debt. So getting rid of short term debt in the system allows a financial system where we don't have to try to regulate assets. Now how do we get rid of it number one stop subsidizing it. Thank you. The first step always is where are we subsidizing it we're subsidizing debt and short subsidizing debt by the tax deductibility. We're subsidizing short term debt because it's privileged as an asset in a lot of regulation. So, let's stop subsidizing debt. I've been for actually attacks. If you finance with short term debt, you got to pay one cent per dollar as a as a as a, let's call it a financial externality tax. I think there's simple measures to get to try to squeeze debt out of the system and to move to an equity financed a long term debt financed system. The problem is a lot of the debt that's coming out of this crisis is sovereign debt, not private debt. And I think we have all gotten a, you know, we're looking for the we're fighting the last war, when the houses go down again. And everyone assumes that sovereign debt is holy and will never fail. Let me remind you that since I think it's like 1340 when King Edward the third stiff the peruzzi sovereign debt has always been the more risky the two. So I wouldn't assume that that's going to go on for many things john. Thank you very much everyone for listening. So thank you john. Thank you Veronica. I wish you a good day. And I wanted to just end by thanking the organizing committee. Carlo Autavilla, Wolfgang Lemke, Roberto Motto and Oreste Tristani at the ECB for putting this together together with Anna Maria Lupo, who was probably the most important by providing the admin and tech support and was also on this call. So normally we have a round of applause, but I just leave it virtually. And with that, I wish you all the best and see you at one of our next events. Thank you. Thank you.


Ladies and gentlemen, the railroad hour. And here comes our star-studded show train. Tonight, the Association of American Railroads presents the little thing Victor Herbert operetta Eileen, starring Gordon MacRae and his charming young guest Lucille Norman. A choir is under the direction of Norman Luboff, and our music is prepared and conducted by Carmen Dragon.  Tonight, America's Railroads salute the Campfire Girls, an organization which for 43 years has worked to develop alert citizens and homemakers through a program which combines fun, friendship, and high ideals for girls between the ages of 7 and 18. Best wishes on your birthday tomorrow. Campfire Girls everywhere. And now, here is our star, Gordon MacRae. Thank you, Marvin Miller. In the top of the evening too, you ladies and gentlemen, lovely Lucille Norman will sing the title role of Eileen, and I'll be a Dublin daredevil named Barry O'Day. And any night along about moonrise, you can find me at the water's edge tricking the British with a bit of the smuggler's arse. While ships may sail the sea, while man of us is free, while heron sends us a misty moon. Sure, why not take an integration boom? If France and Spain have something we can do, it would be the greatest thing we do. So free of tax or duty, we'd better shore our booty than bring to the mist for the moon. Oh, here's the night that's black with rain and wind and wave the thick to the better for when the sun comes out again, there's one the wiser at all. On ships and landing on a sun-fantatious devil of penny we have to pay. Oh, men came in a boat to build up and would drink a room. Ta-loo, ta-loo, pretrained and a misty moon. That's the way we got our vitals in the days of the Great Tribulation. Smuggle them ashore on Dublin Bay by the light of a misty moon. I know because I was one of the smugglers. The ringleader. Not a very respectable occupation, you say. Well, it's dangerous sometimes in Ireland to be too respectable. You might get yourself mistook for an Englishman. Now look at that carriage galloping up Westmoreland, boys. The crowd's given them an angry time. Probably some fancy English lord wished he'd stayed at home. I beg you, let my carriage pass through. Why, it is a carline in that car. A pretty one, too. Hi there, me buckles. Well, it is very, very old day. Is there no shivery left in Ireland? She's an English woman. Well, prettier than.  Come now, clear the path, boys, and let the ladies' carriage go through. I'll eat your horse, ma'am, there's nothing to fear. Sure, and it's that grateful I am to you. Sure, and what kind of talk is that for an English woman to be speaking? My name's Eileen. Does that sound like an English name? Well, then what were they bothering you for? Ah, your horse must be English. I should say not. His name's O'Shaughnessy. I think it's the carriage that made the crowd angry. It belongs to Colonel Lester. And why would you be mixed up with the likes of him? I met him in London. My parents sent me to school there. What folly. Oh, Shaughnessy, oh. And I think you'll be safe enough to travel on your way now, Miss Eileen. Thank you so much. I can see from the way you handle horses you're an excellent groom. Now how can I repay you? No charge. Nay, a small one perhaps.  What? Do you fancy I'm in the habit of handing out kisses to grooms and lackeys? And what if I did fancy, such a fancy? I beg you to let me continue on my way. Well, am I stopping you? Get up, O'Shaughnessy! O'Shaughnessy! There's nothing like the looks of a proud angry woman. You think I'm a groom, do you? And I'd be perfectly willing to be a groom, I think. If you'd be the bride. Oh, I'm in love with a slip of a girl. And if I should be manly or sad, I... Oh, my heart is a fire. And my head is a... Yet I'm suffering. Her hair is that black. And her eyes, she's the form of some pro. Is there? Her cheeks are like roses, new kissed by the doom. The name but my heart you have captured. You're not going to let a blue-eyed and freckled nose the size of a button sway your devotion to the cause.  Can I inquire a question of you, O'Shaughnessy? He may be only a groom, but you liked him, didn't you, O'Shaughnessy? So did I. He has a way with horses, just true. And faith, I don't think horses are the only creatures he has a way with. Like the dawn of a beauty.  Letting yourself fall in love with a man when you don't even know his name. Barry O'Day, what is it, Sean? The Red Colts. Colonel Lester is on his way here. He's sworn to take you, Barry, dead or alive. Oh, me buckle. There's a mighty difference between the swearing and the doing. Out of the window and over the rooftops. Does he want a chase? Very well, we'll give him one. The love of Three Island, open the door. Don't light the lamp. Make a fine target here in the doorway. Very well. Patrick's be praised. No light now. Please wait till the Red Colts go by. Your voice? It's so familiar. Well, I'm a very familiar sort of a fellow. So the ladies tell me, must she light that candle, lass? Just you. Why, Eileen? I was bitter mean to you in the high street this afternoon. Can you forgive me? Why, if you pay me the price I ask for my services. When a man can kiss like that, why should he waste his time grooming horses? I'm not a groom. I'm Barry O'Day. The famous smuggler? Just want to be lesser talents. Why, there's a price on your head. Not nearly so high as the value I put on it myself.  Would that make you sad, Eileen? It's only a springton of ours I've known you Barry O'Day. But would make me very sad indeed. He doesn't know me. Hide. But why? He'll search the house. The best hiding place is no hiding place at all. Come in, sir. I thank you. My compliments, Miss Eileen. Good evening, Colonel Lester. We are searching for an escaped renegade called Barry O'Day. Oh? And what does he look like, sir? None of our people have ever seen him. But from descriptions I should say he is about your build and about your height. And hair about my color and my color eyes. Colonel Lester, there has been no one here this night. Then who might this gentleman be? Gentleman? Oh, I'm no gentleman. I'm the groom. And I've been with the family. How many years has it been, my lady? Is this true, Miss Eileen? Yes. For the sake of our friendship in London, Miss Eileen, I shall take you at your word. Good night.  I lied to him. I lied to attire and his truth in the Patriot's book. And whenever we tricked him, outwit or outnumber them, hamper them, hinder them, hasten them out of the Emerl Isle, every Irishman rejoices, Eileen. For it means the hour of victory is drawn nearer. Glad triumphant hour. May the tyrant spur on every stand. On dawn at steel. Glad to fight for our land. Do you recognize that song? It's On Top of Old Smoky, one of my favorite folk songs. And perhaps one of yours. It's a love song in a way. You remember this verse.  And cross ties on a ray. Four stars in the sky. There aren't as many cross ties on the railroads as there are stars in the sky. But there are an awful lot of them. More than a billion in the United States, in fact. And they're mighty important to the hundreds of members of the American Railway Engineering Association who are getting together in Chicago tonight for their annual meeting this week. These men are concerned with the problems of building, maintaining and improving railroad tracks and structures. In carrying on this research, 225,000 miles of railroad in this country is their proving ground, the world's largest. And better, more efficient railroad service for all of us is their goal. Take cross ties, for example. About 30 million of them have to be removed every year and replaced with new ones. And it costs about $5 to replace each tie. Anything therefore that can be done to lengthen the life of a tie represents a considerable saving in money. And thanks largely to the research activities of the American Railway Engineering Association, improvements in the treatment and handling of cross ties have been so great in the past 50 years as to multiply the average life of a tie about three times. Now that's just one of an endless series of results achieved through the constant research carried on by the railroads. The kind of research that continues to make the American railroads the most efficient and economical and safest transportation system in the world. Here is act two of the Lawrence and Lee dramatization of Victor Herbert's Eileen, starring Gordon Macrae as Barry O'Day and Lucille Norman as Eileen. It is a great day tonight for the Irish for the cause we've fought for and died. When you'll see all Ireland free it is the land of our love and our pride. We despise and defy and attire and flaws we will fight. For as fast as they can make them for God, a week and break them show the Irish have a great day tonight. Tears of love they can make them. Near his hand. You should be wearing a grin on that Irish face. Good news is bad news me buckle. I've got to leave Ireland. Leave Ireland? I see you're not in your right mind me boy. There's people in France, Sean, who can help us with the cost. And I've been appointed to make the journey. A bloomin' ambassador. Tell me, will we have to bow and salute you Mr O'Day? Oh, never, never. It's that sad I'll be to leave the shores of Ireland. And Eileen, you'll be missing her too no doubt. It is true. It's a thought provoking thing Sean, how a man's heart gets caught up with smiles and scenery and the memory of a kiss or two.  Tears are hard to say goodbye. When for, while my soul There's no other spot I know It is the foolish thing I know, but I've got to see Eileen before I leave Ireland. Dear Ben. Eileen. I'm that glad to see I am. But she should never have come. I'm off for the continent Eileen. And heaven knows when I'll see you again, Alana. But Colonel Lester's suspicious. He's had guards posted watching the house ever since the night when you... The nights when you posed as a groom. Wasn't that it, Barry O'Day? Colonel Lester. Let me get a good look at you. So that's what a rebel looks like. Pray, Colonel Lester, for the sake of our old friendship, you'll not take him. You'll not take me alive at any rate. Put away your toys. As you can see, I have no weapons.  You misjudge us, Mr. O'Day. You talk like a man with a price on his head. There is. A thousand pounds for Barry O'Day. Dead or alive. No longer. What? I'm taking my leave of this pestil island and Lord Cornwallis is taking my place. His first act as governor of Ireland is to grant full pardon to all persons connected with the Irish rebellion. Glory be. Then they won't be after hunting you down anymore like a fox in a brush. Isn't it glorious, Barry, to be a free man? Faith, and I wouldn't know about that, Eileen. Aren't you happy? You won't have to leave Ireland. He headers me on again. It is true. And there's no price on it. But now, my sweet, I've lost an equally valuable piece of property. My heart.  You can have mine. We'll be back just a moment. Meanwhile, our hearty thanks to Carlton Young, Donald Hurley, he and our entire company. Eileen with music by Victor Herbert and book and lyrics by Henry Blossom was dramatized for the railroad hour by Lawrence and Lee. The railroad hour is brought to you each week at this same time by the American Railroads. Marvin? To most of us, the word railroad calls to mind freight and passenger trains highballing across the countryside. But equally important to a railroad is the track on which the trains run, the rail, the ties, the roadbed. For it would not be possible to handle the heavy traffic of today without the constant improvement that has been made in track. This work, which is carried down by such railroad organizations as the American Railway Engineering Association, is important to all of us, to better railroad service tomorrow. Thank you, Marvin. Now folks here again as our bright young guest, Lucy O'Norman. The happy half hour wasn't it, Gordon? Oh, some mighty pretty music, Eileen. And Lucy, you were one of those always. Well, thanks. What'll we be hearing on the show train next week, Gordon? Well, I'll be trading in my Irish daily for an oriental lute. A lute? Mm-hmm. We're doing a lovely story of the Far East called Lute Song. And maybe Benzel will be with us to sing some music that sounds like this. Here you need me. I will be here by mountain high. I promise to be listening, Gordon. Good night. Good night, Lucy. We'll see you soon. All aboard! Well, dear friends, it looks as though we're ready to pull out and so until next Monday night in Lute Song, this is your friend Gordon Macrae saying, Good night. Eileen was presented by special arrangement with the Tams Whitmark Music Library. Gordon Macrae can soon be seen starring in the Technicolor production of the Desert Song. A choir was under the direction of Norman Luboff and our music was prepared and conducted by Carmen Dragon. Until next week, this is Marvin Miller saying, Good night for the American Railroads. Now stay tuned for your Monday night of music on NBC.


QuickBooks Online 2023, account and settings, expenses, payments, time and advanced tabs. Get ready to start moving on up with QuickBooks Online. Here we are in our Get Great Guitars Practice file we set up in a prior presentation using the 30-day free trial. We also have open in another tab the free QuickBooks Online Test Drive Sample Company which we will use primarily to look at the differences between the business view and the accountant view. We're currently in the business view as can be noted by the icons on the left. I'm going to go to the cog up drop and switch to the accountant view, my preferred view but as we go through items in our practice problem we'll try to toggle back and forth to see where things are located under both the accountant view and the business view so you can use whichever one that you prefer. Note that if you also want to have the free QuickBooks Online Test Drive opened you've got to open it typically in an incognito window or in a different browser if you're using Google Chrome you can do that by hitting the three dots up top and open up a new incognito window and then you can search for QuickBooks Online Test Drive or if you're using Google Chrome for example you can open it up in another browser such as Firefox. 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We also include added resources such as Excel practice problems PDF files and more like QuickBooks backup files when applicable so once again click the link below for a free month membership to our website and all the content on it and not on the bookkeeping process also our job is to make it as easy as possible to communicate as we record financial transactions with those we do business with customers vendors and employees to do that we set up the QuickBooks file we're then going to be setting up our settings as we are looking at now we're going to be doing those fundamental foundational things like the lists setting up our chart of accounts setting up our products and services and then we can get to the day-to-day activity of entering the financial transactions which we primarily see under the new button and we then have our transactions here which the data input forms we're going to try to make as easy as possible so these can be used to create the financial statements balance sheet income statement or profit and loss and related reports then we communicate with the people we do business with with the information on the left such as the sales area which I would call like the customer center for example the expense area which I would call say the vendor center and the payroll area which would be the employee center for example so that's the general idea going back to the dashboard we are now in the cog drop down looking at our settings I'm going to keep on going through the settings for this foundational items when we set up the new company file last time we got down to the sales area this time we're going to the expenses and we're going to go all the way through to the advanced so expenses this is going to be kind of like the cash outflow side of things so these are going to be the check forms the expense forms the bill forms at the end of the cycle we would expect money to be going out for these items so you got bills and expenses so show items table on expenses and purchase forms so that's going to then add a purchase product table on the expense and purchase forms so you can itemize products and services that's on by default we will keep that on as the default it says show tags field and expense and purchase forms so let's you let's you add tags we're not going to be dealing a lot with tags because that's going to be another kind of specialty area we might have another section on tags in and of themselves if you're not using them you could turn that off because it'll be a little less busy I think QuickBooks is trying to kind of promote the use of tags because that's a differentiating thing that they have than many other softwares but again it's kind of a specialty area so we won't be using it for the most part in this practice problem track expense and items by customer adds a customer column on expense and purchase forms so you can track expenses and items by customer so let's check that that went out a bit more in a bit more detail if I close this back out and I was to open say an expense form a check or a bill type of form let's open like an expense form for example you can see here it doesn't have any customer field on the right hand side by default the vendor is who we're paying up top now I could add a customer field so that I can then then add the items that I'm paying for possibly to an invoice in the future you got to be careful with this we'll talk about it more in the future but to do that I can close this out and we'll turn this one on cog drop-down account and settings and I'm gonna turn that on expenses and then we're gonna go into here and it says track expense and item by customer I'm gonna turn that on make expense and items billable so this one it says adds billable column on expense and purchase forms so you can add billable expenses and items on sales forms so let me turn that on and I'll show you what I mean by that and then you've got your added options make expense items billable but before I get into that let's just look at this first let's save this and look at the impact I'm gonna close this back out again and then I'm gonna hit the plus button and go into that same expense form this is a form we typically use kind of like a check form and we would have a vendor up top for something that we're paying for you can see now we have added a billable item and a customer so why would you need a customer if you're dealing with an expense form well possibly I'm in a system where possibly it's a job cost system and I'm paying for expenses that I I'm gonna apply directly to an invoice so I want to have an expense that's gonna be recorded here that next time when I make an invoice for the customer that I apply this expense to it will then pull in as a line item to that customer now you got to be careful with that because the question then is when I pull it over to the invoice where it we're not using items to do that so when I pull it over to the invoice I don't really have a formal item so the question is how is QuickBooks gonna record it is it gonna record it as income or a reduction to the expense accounts you gotta kind of be careful when using that that tool although it can be an effective tool will dive into it a little bit more in a future presentation we will keep that on for now and touch on that in our practice problem so I'm gonna hit the the cog again and then go to the account and settings and now that we have some understanding of that let's go back into the expenses then you have the added options here so you can make expense and items billable you can mark up with a default rate so now that we've determined that we're gonna have some expenses that we might apply to a customer so that we can pull them over into an invoice do I want to pull them over at what we paid for it or maybe I'm have a standard markup I mark it up by some percent when I when I when I invoice the client so I have a standard markup for those things that I've been purchasing so and the other way you can do it is have the cost there and then just add your markup to the total of the invoice which might be another way you could do that track billable expense items as income so when you when they pull over to the income side when you invoice them you typically you would want them to show up on an income line you're not typically gonna want them to be like a decrease in an expense so if you paid for like supplies expense and then you added supplies expense to the invoice I don't want the invoice to then record a decrease to supplies expense I wanted to record income typically so you have income minus the expenses your net income that's usually how you'd want to see it so that gets a little tricky because you're not using items so we have here track so in a single account or in multiple accounts down here adds a use for billable expense checkbox to an accounts edit screen in the chart of accounts so you can kind of apply where you want it to go more clearly here so we'll keep the defaults and then you've got the charging of the sales tax and so sales tax obviously is gonna muddy up the situation when you have to determine whether or not when you pull it into the invoice is it now going to be applicable to sales tax or not so you can turn that on if so you got the default bill payment terms so this is kind of like we saw on the invoice if I enter a bill into the system that means that I'm gonna pay it at a future time now the term bill for QuickBooks is a very specific term so we can use it in a lot of different ways outside of Quick Books even in accounting but for QuickBooks it means we got a bill from the customer and we're entering it into our system before we pay it we're not just gonna pay it with a check we could get an invoice or a bill from a customer and pay it with a check which means we wouldn't use the bill form if I enter it with a bill form that means that we're gonna pay it in the future now it doesn't have a default here because you know you're probably gonna have to enter the manual bill date of when it is due rather than just give a default here because we're the one receiving the bill but I'm gonna put a default on it in our practice problems so we can just see so it'll generate that automatically for us so that's gonna be when it's gonna be due by default let's save it and then you got the purchase orders now the purchase orders would only be in place if you're in a system where you have inventory and you're able to basically request inventory without actually paying for the inventory so it's a request kind of form to your vendors before you before you enter the bill or the the check form or expense form for the inventory so use purchase orders so if you don't use them you could turn them off and then you won't have that added kind of item it'll be a little bit less clutter possibly go to the to the list you can customize the field to manage so if you wanted another line item in the invoice form that that that you can sort by you can add that custom transaction numbers lets you use your own number I'll keep it where it is by the default and then the default message you can add a message on the person purchase order here by default and test that out if you want as well so I'm going to save that and then you've got your messages so remember with communication oftentimes is done by email now so we've got the default messages when we send out the email default email message sent you've got dear and then you can have full name first name company name and so on this is for the purchase order email please find purchase order attached to this email so you can change that the default if you so choose email me a copy so you can put that there if you want to have a copy the CC and so on if you want to have those as well so I'm going to say obviously the CC is visible and I think the BCC is not visible so that so that you can add it without you know someone else seeing that you added and so on and then you've got the quick books payments so get paid more ways so if you go into this is kind of like an add-on type of feature we might do another kind of section on it but you would have to to set up online payments in order to use basically this feature so we might test that out later but not now and then the time if we go into the time in general the first work week so we started on Sunday is the default but maybe you started on Monday so you can set that as default if you want first day of the work week and then the timesheet shows service fields when entering timesheet lets you specify service performed so the time when we enter the time that's going to be the time that we enter that we might use for payroll and we might also use that to process an invoice which is quite common in like a job cost kind of system or like a an accounting firm or a law firm where you're going to be charging the time and this will when entering time let's you specify the service that's performed allow time to be to be billable so when we enter the time as a checkbox to specify whether the activities should be billed to the customer so if we're entering the time because we then want to pull that information in a similar fashion as we saw with the expense form into an invoice then we want to be able to assign the customer so that we can then pull that information over we'll touch on that in the practice problem show billing rate to users entering the form so we'll keep that off by the default let's go into the advanced items accounting so first month of the fiscal year is oftentimes so this is the first month not the last month so the fiscal year is is like your business year oftentimes that's the same as the calendar year meaning January to December but if it's not then you want to make sure to change this and as you do make sure that you're talking about the first year this is important because when you run your reports quick books defaults that it's going to run reports for a year and it rolls over the the closing process based on your fiscal year so if your fiscal year is wrong it's gonna it's good the whole closing process thing is going to get messed up so if you have a calendar year it's right by default January is the first month of the year but if you've got some other year then make sure that you're you're accounting for that first month first month of income tax year same as the fiscal year we're going to say if it was different maybe you have a fiscal year that's different and then you have your tax year which is January ask your accountant about that if that's the case accounting method I highly highly recommend keeping that on accrual unless you have some some reason to do otherwise because when you're thinking about the accounting method you can't just choose to be in a cash-based method by just toggling this thing over what really happens is you're on a cash-based method this is a flow chart whether or not you're using forms that are accrual based or cash-based so for the customer cycle for example if you just enter a deposit form and record the sales when you get the deposit you are on a cash-based system even though you have the capacity to enter accrual transactions if you're using a create sales receipts form that's like the form used at a cash register you are on a cash-based system even if you've toggled over to the accrual thing it's only if you enter invoices that you've now switched over to kind of an accrual system so the fact that you're using invoices means that you're doing something in an accrual system if you toggle over to a cashed based system and try to use an invoice then you would think the systems not gonna not gonna actually record the revenue until you receive the payment which isn't typically what you would want to have happened you would want it to record it if you're using an invoice when you record the invoice so so if you're thinking about toggling that over or switching this to cash you probably want to make sure that you're clearing that with an accountant or CPA as to why you would be doing that by default I would suggest accrual so close the books now at the at the end of a of a period you could you could close the books here and this could be a useful thing to do because a common very common problem with QuickBooks is the idea is the capacity for people to change data say in a prior year and what happens then is that your your current data is messed up because you end up with these timing differences that happen so for example if you if you if the year ended in 2022 you finalized your your financial statements because you did your tax return based on the QuickBooks data and then you go back into the prior year and delete a bunch of stuff like checks and whatnot that didn't clear it might it might be right that the checks were wrong and you need to delete them to move forward but you're messing up the prior year's income statement which has already closed out and that means that you're gonna that that's your retained earnings or whatever wouldn't roll over so to really fix that you would have to you would have to do an amended tax return or something if you fix so you don't want to do that what you want to do is have those adjustments happen in the current period so you've got to be very careful deleting stuff in the prior period one way you can stop yourself and someone else from doing that is to say okay we closed out the year I filed the tax return I'm closing out the prior year and you only be able to change things after you see a warning or enter a password in an attempt to hopefully only allow people that know what they're doing or have thought it through to change anything in the prior period okay so I'm gonna toggle that off as the default for now out by default QuickBooks is quite flexible with deleting stuff so company type this is I'm gonna say yes here and so you got the sole proprietorship partnership small corporation we chose this when we set up the company file there's not a big difference in terms of the GL accounts when you choose these these these different options here so but we're gonna keep it on so we'll talk more about the accounting related to it in terms of what happens with the equity section accounts and so on when we go through the practice problem but we're just gonna keep it on the sole proprietor for our practice problem so we got the chart of accounts enable account numbers now account numbers can be great but people often mess them up because they don't know how to add account numbers in a way that makes sense so they get all tied up with account numbers so so by default they turn the account numbers off which is what we're gonna do here I think we're gonna have a section that just shows you the general items of account numbers we possibly have that or a course on that so if you want to learn the account numbers you can but by default we're gonna be putting them off here and the thing with account numbers they give you a little bit more control about the orderings of your accounts and the and less flipping of accounts changing the order year over year because it's gonna in what not because as the as you add accounts and whatnot so so but if you don't add the account numbers properly the account numbers will actually be not making sense they'll be out of order in essence because the the chart of accounts is first in order by account type balance sheet accounts then income statement accounts the account numbers need to line up with that and that's how they have to be added so we'll talk more I think we have a section on that and says tips tips account and then billable expense account so this account that that goes with the settings expense bills expense track billable expenses and items as income in a single account so we're gonna keep that off by the default here so I'm gonna keep that okay next one we're gonna say categories and just let me just recap this again if you that tips we saw setting before this is the account that goes with the setting sales form contacts if you set that up then you need the account that's gonna basically be set up with it here and that's what they're basically saying alright let's go to the categories we got the classes now the craft classes and location tracking are another field similar to the tags that allow you an added level of tracking particularly on the income statement so if I wanted to track items on the income statement by location or by department or something like that then I can turn on one of the act in a similar fashion they have some differences but they act similar and then I can print my income statement out and break it out columns by location and by class and then have a total column so it's really a neat tool but only applicable in certain in certain situations so if you have different departments you can actually use it if you have both your business and your personal stuff that you're tracking in QuickBooks which isn't normally recommended but it's possible to do with the class tracking to break that out especially if you just have a schedule see our sole proprietorship we have courses on that if you want to check that out but we're gonna keep that off for the default note that if you're adding levels of information by like location or department then you've got a whole lot of options you want to think about though what one is that you can have sub accounts by location or department or two you can turn on class tracking or location tracking which is going to give you another column on the income statement by location or department or or you can use the tags which is another way that you can add some some level of tracking information so so you want to kind of think about those that there's a lot of different variant uses that you can use those for and the options that they have are getting you can also the same with the projects or a job cost system you can use projects to do some so there's some various ways to to do the same thing these times which is great but can also lead to paralysis of too many different ways to do something so you want to make sure you pick one so automation pre-fill forms with previously entered content so automatically fills other fields of the form based on the last save transaction for the customer vendor or employee that helps us to enter data and then in the following timeframe enter it more easily as it picks up the transactions similar to what we did in the past so that is a great tool we'll keep that on by default automatically apply credits automatically applies credits to the next invoice you create for for the same customer so if they have any like if you have credits meaning outstanding amounts they that need to apply lowering their bill that are outstanding for a customer it'll apply those out automatically most companies turn on this setting turn it off if you if your property management so we'll keep that on by default property management might have a credit that's outstanding all the time and then they have a security deposit so if you've got a security deposit that you're recording that you don't want to apply to the invoice of course because you're gonna have to keep it outstanding then you'll have but any other company usually when you have a credit and outstanding balance the next invoice that you create you're gonna lower their bill by the outstanding credit is the general idea so that's on by default we'll keep that on automatically invoice unbilled activity so automatically creates invoice for customers with unbilled activities I won't do that because I want to actually create the bill so if I had an expense that I entered an a bill a customer into an expense or a timesheet that I I don't want to automatically create the invoice I would like to do that periodically and go through the invoicing process that's my general thought on that automatically apply bill payments when you add bill payments in the register the setting automatically applies the payments to the oldest existing bill which kind of makes sense by default if you were to use that so I'm gonna keep that on by default projects this is another kind of specialty area which might be used kind of like in a job cost system or tracking particular projects another great tool we might have I think we might have courses in and of that on its own but tracking projects is kind of a specialty area in like a job cost system system in general is kind of a specialty area in and of itself so we're not gonna have our major focus in on projects with the practice problem but like I say there's some overlap between tracking projects tracking jobs and tracking tracking class tracking location tracking using tags you know which of those are you gonna use for whatever specific need that you're trying to fulfill you want to think through that if you have any specific need currency so we're gonna be using the United States dollar now note that the general accounting will be similar if you're in other other countries to use like your your your home currency will be like your your default currency it gets a little complicated when you're dealing with transactions in multiple currencies meaning you have a home currency and then you have transactions in other currencies because then you've got this exchange kind of issue so you would only turn on multiple currencies lets you track transactions in foreign currencies use it only if you have bank account customers or vendors that don't use your home currency so note what you can do here you can set your home currency to whatever home currency is applicable and that's fine but if you have transactions in multiple currencies then that's when you have to turn this on and I don't think you can turn it back off once you turn it on although it just adds some fields a little a little gets things a little bit more messy but not too big of an issue but we I think we have a whole course on that if you want to dive into into that as well but it's a kind of a specialty area too so business network allow members to find me so it says when a member searches for your company they'll see your website and company city so on only members request to accept to see your company email so I'm gonna turn that off by default because it's a practice problem your company won't be shown in the business network but any member you request to connect with can still see so I'm gonna say okay that's fine and then other platforms or other preferences date format so I'm gonna keep the default which is which is the month day year but you depending on your location there's different preferences for the date some sometimes when you're saving stuff it actually is makes more sense to say the year the month than the date because you want to save it you know by year month and then date typically maybe but I'm gonna keep the default number format this is the United States typical month number format but you might have different number formats depending on your location worn if duplicate check number is used that's a standard internal control I'll keep that on warn me if I enter a build number that's already there you could turn that on but I'll keep it off by the default warning if duplicate journal numbers is used I'll keep the default there sign me out if inactive for one hour so this is a an internal control over QuickBooks online you are in an online system you're working on a website so that's you know if you're if you're leaving the workstation for some time you would think that you might want the station to turn off after some point the default is an hour you can set and adjust that if you so choose so those are those general settings I don't think we've done anything going anywhere unusual in terms of the the the business view versus the accountant view so we've just been under the cog here and we went to the plus button which are basically the same under the business and accountant view