Hello and welcome to this press conference launching the Global Risks Report for 2022. My name is Adrian Monk, here at the World Economic Forum in Geneva, joined by Borger Brenda, by Saadia Zahidi, and from some of our partners in producing the report, Karina Klimt, who heads Risk at Marsh, and Peter Geiger, who's Chief Risk Officer at Zurich. Everyone will have contributions from all of those folks to start, and afterwards we'll be taking questions. We aim to finish on time, being based in Switzerland, and taking these things very seriously. So without further ado, I'm going to hand over to the President of the World Economic Forum, Borger Brenda, to introduce this year's 17th Global Risks Report. Borger. Thank you so much, Adrian, and thank you especially to Saadia and her risk team, but also to our great partners, so we could deliver on this risk report. And as we all know, there has not been a lack of risks the last year, and there will be also a lot of risks moving forward. We are still in the middle of a pandemic, but we have in a very short time also developed effective vaccines. Vaccines that usually can take a decade to develop happened in the year in a unique public-private cooperation. And we also saw at the COP26 in Glasgow that public-private cooperation is crucial to also mitigate risks moving forward and to deal with them. What it is very clear in this report, and my colleagues will go into it in depth, is that in the survey all the respondents are also more and more underlining the environmental and climate crisis that we are faced with. Our planet is on fire, and we have to deal with it. And this is a risk that we really, really know. So we cannot say that we are faced with a blind spot. It is really also clear in the risk report that the respondents say there are two main challenges. One is a lack of implementation of what was agreed at COP26, a lack of implementation possibly on the net zero way of thinking in this century. And the second risk is then related to effect of lack of implementation and reaching 1.5 degrees zero is dramatic weather consequences, droughts, floods, wildfires and etc. And here is of course adaptation measures necessary. The other one main risk that we are faced with according to the survey is inequalities and social crisis. We have seen growing inequalities and how are we going to make sure that the social market economy is also using the necessary tools to address these challenges. And here, I strongly believe that stakeholder capitalism that the World Economic Forum is strongly, strongly than arguing for companies also taking increased responsibilities in society is one important piece of this. Short term, we are faced with global supply chain challenges. We do believe that it will continue also this year. We know there is huge inflationary pressure and we also know due to the response to the crisis there is a looming debt crisis in the world that also reduces the fiscal ammunition moving forward among governments. And here, I also believe that if we are going to deal then with inequalities, we are going to deal effectively also with climate and nature challenges. We do need a more public private cooperation because the private sector can add to this. On top of it, we also see that geopolitical tension and a fractured world is really a big challenge. And the reality with all the main challenges that we are faced with global challenges needs global solutions. And are those solutions going to be developed in this fractured world? Let's see. Back to you again, Adrian. Thanks, blogger. Well, Sadiah, you and your team produced this year's report. And can you take us a little bit deeper, perhaps, on the kind of key issues that you identified in putting this together? Great. Thank you very much. And again, thanks to the team that put this together, the Global Risks Initiative team, and to our partners, Zurich Marsh and the SK Group. Let me put up a bit of the data from this 17th edition of the Global Risks Report. And we adapted our survey this year to understand a bit more about where the global mindset was among the thousand experts that responded to this survey. And first off, it's very clear that this confluence of all of the factors that have come together, all of the challenges that we're currently facing, are leading to a fairly pessimistic outlook. 84% of the people that responded to the survey said that they were either worried or concerned about the outlook for the world. Less than 4% were optimistic about the outlook for the world. Let's go a little bit more in depth into some of these results. We asked people to look back at the last two years of the pandemic and identify which are the risks that became worse since the COVID-19 crisis started. And what's very clear is that above everything else social cohesion has eroded. There are deep concerns about livelihood crisis. There are concerns about climate action failure, concerns about mental health deterioration, and then finally concerns about extreme weather. These five really stand out compared to other areas. We could go to the next set of data. We also asked people when some of these risks will become a critical threat to the world. And in the next couple of years, there continues to be deep concern around both the climate side of things and the social side of things. So extreme weather, livelihood crisis, climate action failure, infectious diseases, of course the pandemic has not gone away. And so there continues to be concern around that. And then of course social action cohesion. On the other hand, if you look at the next sort of five to 10 years out, that's where you see a lot of concern around. You can see the top five are all green. So climate action failure, extreme weather, biodiversity loss, natural resource crisis, and human-made environmental damage. Somewhere in the middle of this, which is really the next sort of two to five years out, there's concern about climate issues. There is concern about the social issues. But there's also concern around cybersecurity failure. There's also concern around geoeconomic confrontations. So you're starting to see quite a mix of things that are the bridge between the short-term timeframe and the longer term. And finally, the last set of data. We also asked people about risk mitigation efforts and how they believe some of these efforts are working. The good news is that people are generally fairly optimistic about how trade facilitation is being managed, how international crime is being managed. They're fairly optimistic also about how health crisis are being dealt with or how natural disaster relief is being provided. But some of the new and emerging areas, like artificial intelligence, like space exploration, like cyber attacks and migration and refugees, those are areas where people don't believe that much is being done in the best possible way moving forward. I'll stop there, Adrienne. You can go take a look at the report. It's live now and explore that data a bit more. Thanks, Vassadia. Yeah. And just for the few of you mentioning that it was difficult to see and read some of those slides, it's not a test. We are actually making them available in the report, so you can go back and have a look at them in detail inside the report. And I think someone's posting a link in the chat for you there. Turning now to Karolina Klint at Marsh. Karolina, can you talk us through some of the deeper kind of business-facing risks that you see inside this year's report? Absolutely, Adrienne. And thank you, Saadia, for that sobering overview of this year's report. On the corporate side, we hear a lot of talk about ESG, and it's increasingly clear that good governance and improved resilience really go hand in hand with collaborative, credible, and sophisticated risk management plans. Cyber attacks are not new, but what we've seen, their intensification over the last two years means that cyber threats are now growing faster than our ability to prevent and manage them effectively. Companies trying to survive the pandemic have been under more pressure than ever to digitize and automate, but too often this has been built on the backbone of aging technology, which has led to supply chain disruptions and greater exposure to cyber attacks, and especially ransomware. And cyber attacks have also become costly. In 2021, we saw the highest average cost of a data breach in almost two decades, and in addition, cyber insurance pricing is going up. For example, prices in the United States rose by 96 percent in the third quarter of 2021. There are plenty of cyber risks that keep the C-suite up at night, but there are four that I want to point out that need to be tackled. Critical infrastructure failures, an increasingly aggressive regulatory environment, unprecedented identity theft, and the failing to execute digital transformation effectively. Companies soon won't be able to claim good ESG credentials without addressing these key areas. But if you think cyber risk is rapidly evolving, many organizations haven't even started contemplating the risks for them in space. Not that long ago, we thought of space as the final frontier, and it's more accessible than ever. 2021 saw the birth of space tourism and a record number of orbital space launches globally, with 70,000 planned for the next decade. And while these are all really exciting developments, the dated space governance regime risks holding them back. Our planet is surrounded by a literal junkyard of human-made space debris with nuts and bolts, discarded rocket parts, empty fuel tanks, broken satellites, and in addition to growing geopolitical tensions, these objects pose a serious threat to global communications and the future of our ambitions in space. But if we can manage these emerging risks successfully, we will be able to realize the full potential for technological and human advancement that space presents. So these and other global risks identified in this year's report demonstrate the need for countries and companies to improve their organizational resilience and learn from the failures and successes of the past two years. Resilience is a journey, not a destination. It's really important that resilience measures focus not only on a company's own assets and processes, but also the vulnerabilities of those in their supply chain, utilities, service providers, suppliers, and also customers. Part of the problem here is that too often society has rewarded efficiency over resilience and growth over sustainability, and that's a really short-term outlook, which as we have seen with the pandemic, can leave companies vulnerable to shocks. Allowing for little slack in the system may enable businesses to adapt to change more quickly. The pandemic has also highlighted the importance of connecting risk to strategy, and this includes strengthening communications with stakeholders and empowering leaders and employees to make real-time decisions. In addition, diverse and inclusive organizations outperform their peers. Diversity helps companies better understand the markets they serve and enables them to take a more holistic view of the emerging risk landscape. We need to build greater resilience at local, national, and global levels. Governments, businesses, communities, and NGOs must work more closely together than ever before, and by building real partnerships between the public and private sectors based on new approaches to risk mitigation, allocation, and data sharing, we can make choices now that will enhance our risk preparedness and resilience. And by taking these steps, when the next crisis emerges, we will be ready to respond with greater agility and cohesiveness and able to create the more sustainable future for our world. Thank you. Carolina, thanks for that. No global risk report would be complete without a don't-look-up moment, and Peter, I think you're probably best placed here to deliver that moment to everyone. Can you tell us a bit more about the climate dimension to the risk report this year? Thank you, Adrian. Happy to. But COVID-19, with its economic and societal consequences, continue to pose a critical threat to the world, leaving long-lasting effects on social cohesion and the global economy, which is expected to be 2.3% small by 2024 than it would have been without the pandemic. The global risk report highlights that in the next five to 10 years, climate action failure and the environmental risk it brings, namely extreme weather events, are perceived to be the most critical long-term threats to the world. One of the important long-term consequences of the pandemic is the effect it will have on the world's ability to address these important global environmental challenges, reducing the attention and focus needed for governments to take effective and quick climate action, halving greenhouse gas emissions in the next decade and achieving the net zero transition by 2050, or risking massive disruption from the consequences of a materially warmer climate. The economic impacts of the pandemic, including tight supply chains, rising commodity pricing, inflation, and especially increased levels of public debt and central banks that can hardly become more interventionist, make it even more challenging for nations to start implementing transition policies that will have material impacts on their economies and citizens. It is hard to see how any transition of this scale can be anything but disruptive and disorderly, especially if greenwashing or stalling on commitments delay the transition, then there will be even more disruption as more radical policies will be required to decarbonize and achieve the net zero transition goals. While progress was made at the recent COP26 meeting, the latest commitments are falling well short of the 1.5 degree net zero goal, and are instead expected to steer the world towards a 2.5 degrees warming. However, agreement at the COP26 on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, the rulebook on carbon trading will help drive the transition, and the new IFRS framework will help improve disclosure standards. It is economic drivers, like an expectation of rapidly increasing carbon price that are likely to have the greatest impact on consumers and businesses in terms of revealing the protection they have been afforded from the historic and deliberate mispricing of carbon. The consequences of this will create societal, economic and geopolitical risks that are at the heart of the transition that net zero goals by 2050 demand. Where innovation, incentives and policies failed to stimulate defective market solutions, increased costs and job losses in carbon-intense industries, which currently employ millions of workers, could trigger economic volatility, create material labour market disruptions and increase societal and geopolitical tensions. So what can be done to resolve it? Actions that need to happen are those which change incentives, consumer behaviours and demand destruction for carbon-intensive goods and services. That creates both risks and opportunities, but fortunately governments, consumers and businesses are becoming increasingly focused on sustainability and climate change. It is becoming a critical strategic question for any business how to position itself in that foreseeable transition. As in any transition, there will be winners and losers, and failure to adapt will lead to loss of relevance and as history has demonstrated regularly, the disappearance of companies or whole sectors. Waiting for governments to lead with regulation, risks losing too much time for the innovation and transition required. The transition to net zero will be as transformative as past industrial revolutions. To be timely and successful, this transition will need stakeholders to be innovative, determined and inclusive to protect the planet, economies and people. Very much for taking on the Leonardo DiCaprio role in today's global risk report launch. First question is from London and Larry Elliott, business editor at The Guardian. Larry, thanks for joining. Sorry not to be able to see you in person, but great to see you virtually. Can you share your question with us? Morning, Adrian. The sentiment is shared in real pity that we're not going to be able to meet next week, but anyway, good to hook up. This is not the first time that climate has dominated the global risk report. It bears striking resemblance to last year's report, which also highlighted climate as a big, big challenge. Is there any indication that people are listening to this global risk report? And if not, why not? Is it because the pandemic is actually just crowding out climate as an issue? Or are there other deeper factors that mean that people are not really taking your warning with the seriousness it warrants? Good question. Maybe turn to Sardia on that first, Sardia. Are we broadcasting into the void here? Or are people actually taking notice of these kinds of warnings? I think that's very much the purpose of this report at the beginning of each year, to make sure that we're calling attention to some of the big topics that are on the agenda that need that longer-term investment. Two years ago, just before the global pandemic started, we had mentioned how resilience in global health systems was missing. And a few years before that, highlighted the likelihood of the pandemic. And 2011 is the first year in which climate change rose to being among the top five most likely risks facing the world. And I think if we look at the movement that's currently underway, it is very clear that leaders are looking at how to make the climate transition, how to make mitigation against climate change possible, how to manage the screen transition. But what's also clear if we look at the latest results of the report is that governments have a balancing act to work with. In the short term, there are a number of economic transitions that they also need to manage. So, for example, shifting from the emergency stance that many governments have had, and all of the stimulus funding that has been providing, shifting towards more of a recovery stance and more of a resilience stance that puts into place investments for the future. The second area in which they're having to do a balancing act is around jobs and social cohesion. Peter mentioned the number of people that are employed in carbon intensive industries. That's certainly not the only place in which governments are having to manage a jobs crisis and to deal with the fallout from the pandemic. So, for example, mental health crisis were among the top five areas that worsened over the course of these last two years, 53 million additional cases of depression alone because of the pandemic. So, there's a number of other factors in the short term that I think governments are having to balance against the green transition, which is clearly one of the major issues that has to be dealt with. Come to Borger in a second, perhaps Carolina and Peter, just you speak regularly to other business leaders. To what extent are they listening to these warnings? Carolina? Yes, I think, I mean, the pandemic has definitely been a distraction. I think there's no question about that. But I think at the same time, we continue to see temperature, sea level rises, extreme weather events, wildfire, catastrophic floods worldwide. So, it's not like we can, I mean, claim that this is a blind spot any longer. It is now compromising critical infrastructure, crop production and even the livability of many heavily populated areas. So, I think if it's been a blind spot for a while and maybe a little bit distracted by the pandemic, I think it's now definitely up there on the on the agenda. Peter? Yeah, I think, I mean, part of it is the dilemma that humans are not good in the boiling frog scenario. They're very good in the fight or flight response, which we've seen in the pandemic and the climate change is a boiling frog issue. Having said that, I'll take optimism from the fact that more and more businesses start to think about this as a strategic opportunity as well and position themselves or try to find ways to position themselves for a carbon neutral economy. Probably that's the silver lining on the horizon, whilst governments are focused on preserving status quo, businesses are more willing to accept that the world is never stable. Boge? So, I think on the commitment side, there has been clear also positive developments during the last decade. But as we can see in the report, there are question marks about the implementation. If you look at the situation before Paris, we were really on a four degrees target scenario. After Paris, we were closer to two degrees and after Glasgow now, we are more on the two degrees scenario looking at it and still it is doable with the 1.5 if you really implement everything that is necessary. But here is the challenge, will the world be able in a synchronized way to implement all the necessary measures to reach a 1.5 degrees target in the coming decades? And I think this is an indication that there are question marks around this and if that doesn't happen, then we see the second concern also mentioned by Carolina and Peter is the dramatic consequences then related to weather, droughts, floods and etc. But on the positive side though, no, we are close to a situation where almost 80% of all the global emissions are part of a commitment towards a net zero. Only five years ago, there was less than 20% of the global emissions that were part of a net zero planning. So I would say that risk report and other reports really showing that the cost of inaction far exceeds cost of action is having an impact. So we are seeing positive developments not as fast and not as deep as we would have liked but we are moving in the right direction hopefully. Borger, thanks very much. I can see a lot of questions queuing up so we'll try and move through them briskly to get you all a chance to come in. I'm going to go next to Torsten Rieker and also to Thomas Seifer. Thomas is joining from Wiener Zeitung and Torsten from Handelsblatt. Torsten, can I get your question first and then Thomas will bring you in. Yes, good morning and thanks for having me here in the virtual meeting. So I want to come to the business equation of our debate and Joe Casey, the former CEO of Siemens Riesli said society is the most important stakeholder of a company at the moment. So I wonder if the erosion of the social cohesion is the risk that worsens most since the start of the pandemic. What could and should business leaders actually do to stop that erosion and fulfill in the cracks in our society? Thanks. Great question and Thomas can we just get your question too? Sure, yes this is Thomas Seifer from Wiener Zeitung in Vienna and also I hope to see you guys all in summer in Davos so hopefully. When you look out at the horizon what does the post COVID landscape look like when it comes to geopolitics because already the question before was talking about all the fissures in societies but also we see a bigger world that nations are also more lined up against each other rather than cooperating with each other especially when it comes to Russia versus the European Union and of course the United States we see that right now and also of course the climate between China and the West has also really hit a low point I would say at least since a long long time. So maybe you want to elaborate a little bit on the geopolitical risk landscape as well. Thank you so much. Thanks for that. So I might turn to for the business side on social cohesion to our two business panelists and then perhaps look at geopolitics with my forum colleagues here. So perhaps first looking at the social cohesion measures that businesses can take to address this issue that we highlight here in the global risk report. Peter what are some of the kinds of things that you're seeing maybe at Zurich and also in other parts of the business landscape that can address some of this social cohesion issue. I mean at the end of the day I mean businesses serve societies. I mean we have no reason for being unless we're serving societies but in terms of the social cohesion I think it's a big expectation for businesses to take care of that. We actually engage in education for example development of skills for our staff base and so on and so forth but that's a very small contribution from a societal perspective. In that respect I think businesses have a role to play but we shouldn't overestimate the impact of the individual business. Collectively I think being inclusive is the most important contribution that we're making and being truly inclusive is I think an ongoing challenge in a world that is ever changing. And Carolina we've seen business step up in the sustainability space but what about in this social cohesion space is there a gap there that businesses can fill? I think part of what drives this risk to social cohesion is a lack of trust and I think you know coming together looking at ways of partnering public-private partnerships and looking ways to foster that trust and deploy strategies that are based on really principled science-based decisions. I think that's really important in order for businesses to help drive a positive development in this area. Excuse me the other thing that I'll say is that the rise of stakeholder capitalism and shareholder activism and that increased appetite from companies to use ESG targets and metrics I think actually ESG can be one of those things that can help drive trust but it really and it will reshape the financial and economic landscape but it also really takes companies delivering on commitments made so that they don't find themselves in you know to be accused of greenwashing and I think that's a really important element now that companies actually deliver and execute on promises made. Thanks Carolina. Turning to the risk landscape that was Thomas's question what do you see as the kind of the geopolitical kind of dimensions to this 2022 risk report? Sardia? On the I think if we take a look at the experience of the last couple of years it's very clear that most governments turned inward most of them focused on some of the short-term crises and issues that they're dealing with internally and what is increasingly clear is that if we're going to tackle the numerous challenges that this report is pointing to global cooperation and global coordination is going to be key and that's really the key message coming out of the report that now that we shift a little bit away from the emergency mindset it's going to be necessary to build bridges between economies and that's going to be one of the tensions that governments will need to manage because a whole host of the crises that they're going to be facing are going to look very different nationally domestically internally than if they want to deal with them broadly and globally. Thanks for that and Borger we're in Geneva there are talks going on here right now in the report we talk about geopolitical confrontation geo-economic confrontation as being a five to ten year risk is that something that diplomacy the action now by governments can help mitigate and that we can actually make sure doesn't come to be something that we're talking about in next year's report? I think the latter is maybe a bit optimistic I think geopolitical tension will also be a topic for next year's report but let's hope that the talks are going on here in Geneva the talks going on in Vienna related to the Iran nuclear deal the JSPOA also other discussions will move into a positive track. What I said at the beginning is that most of the challenges and also underlined by said I just know most of the global challenges we're faced with needs global solutions so if there is no cooperation in a globalized world on these major major challenges we will also see less results less effective results. On the positive side I would then draw the attention for example to what happened at COP26 in the last hours special climate envoy of China Mr. Shea came together with Secretary Kerry and they did agree on important text so there was an agreement from the COP26. I think also there is a willingness in areas where there are common interest to find also common solutions so a lot is at stake also for example on the trade side we see the challenges known the global supply chain we just have to hope that there is not this approach like beggar or dying neighbor but more the prosper your neighbor we will have to hopefully come back to a world where we have a win-win approach and not a zero sum game this is crucial for prosperity and also for solving the most pressing issues that are outlined in the report. Thanks Borger. Turning next to Lauren Sierra from Switzerland. Lauren do we have you on screen? Yes we do and can we have you asking your question? Sure thank you for taking my question and happy new year to all of you despite the challenges we all face ahead of us. As Borger Brandon mentioned we're still in the middle of that pandemic and WHO and other stakeholders often repeat that it's not going to be the last one but infectious diseases are not among the top risk on the middle to longer term does that mean that the experts you surveyed already consider that the world will be better and enough prepared to cope with the future pandemics thank you. It's great so Lauren is drawing a silver lining there from the fact that the pandemic risk has moved down a little bit Saadia is that conclusion right that we think the pandemic response will be better and that that's what the experts are telling us? I think there's two ways to look at this one is certainly the silver lining interpretation which is that most of our respondents are assuming that the pandemic will have disappeared we will have made our health systems more resilient we will be better prepared for the risks created by future infectious diseases. The other way to look at this is that respondents are incredibly concerned about all of the other global risks that we're not currently building more resilience for whether that is the the risk of asset bubbles whether that's the risk of you know further deterioration when it comes to climate change and I think it's it's probably a mix of the two that you're seeing in the results here. Thanks for that. Turning now to Ziyu Chen from Yikai can we have your question please? Yes thank you thanks for taking my question my question will focus on the European part we would like to know given all the global risks we face this year what could be the most urgent one facing Europe this year and more specifically I'm going to see the division of the European countries in terms of economic performance are we going to see the gap getting bigger and bigger this year? Okay maybe I can turn first to my colleague Borger Brenda just to give a quick perspective on that and then bring in a couple of our other panelists Borger. Thank you Adrian thank you for your question let me first illustrate it with the global response to the pandemic 14 trillion US dollars has been launched in extraordinary stimulus in the world it has not been synchronized but it is more stimulus than was launched after the big financial crisis in 2008 and you have to go back also to the second world war to see something like it I think this stimulus has brought us through this very very difficult period I don't think there was any alternative no it is the fine-tuning between continued stimulus and also quantitative easing and the inflationary pressure you face with and it's true Europe is also in that mix I think Europe with its stimulus package where it also focused the 750 billion euros on the digital transformation and the green transformation I think there are things that are also moving no in Europe's interest I think Europe is more conscious about its competitiveness in the digital and the green transformation and are taking quite a leading role on the green economy and the transformation but of course no Europe is in the middle of electricity challenges so that has to be dealt with so I think your jury is out I think Europe compared to some emerging economies and also is back no mainly this year on a pre-COVID level when it comes to its GDP and it's really up now to the European leaders who today get more competitive increase its productivity in the years to come. Thanks Borger I'm going to quickly try and bring in Lucy White from the Daily Mail in London Lucy we've only got you on audio I think can we hear your question? I think we are clearly not quite high-tech enough to have cameras just yet but no thanks for taking the question I mean it was more looking at the livelihood crises that are mentioned as one of the short-term risks I mean does this specifically relate to you know kind of inflation worries caused by the pandemic and how does this perhaps differ between emerging markets and developed economies and you know specifically the UK perhaps as well and livelihood and jobs are a massive focus also Saadia of your work so I might turn to you first on that and then bring in our business panelists Saadia so what's your view on that livelihood crisis issue? Sure thank you I think despite all of the headlines about the great resignation the reality is that we have overall lower employment than we did before and we do have at the same time as a number of people leaving their current roles you know about 40% as it's currently estimated we also have at the very same time very high unemployment in many sectors many parts of the world so overall there is an accelerated shift structural shift in labour markets that was long expected since the start of the fourth industrial revolution but has now been further accelerated because of the pandemic and its after effects and the ongoing green transition that is really just starting so a big element of that livelihood crisis is concern around whether there will be good jobs in the future whether there will be enough jobs in the future whether workers will have the right skills for all of these new jobs in these new and emerging sectors and whether there will be support for those that are going to need it in the next few years as they make the transition to their next area of of gaining an income in addition you're seeing a rising inequality so for example in the short term results from for example Brazil and India two massive emerging markets digital inequality is among the top five risks that the country is facing so you're starting to see a lot of concern around this sort of fissure that's developed with three billion people that still do not have access to the internet and do not have one major source of gaining an income available to them so overall I think that's what's underneath the concern around livelihood crisis and that's why we're seeing for the first time that that topic is not just present in the next couple of years but is actually present all the way through in the next 10 year outlook as well. Okay I can see our clock ticking down I'm just going to see if we can get more questions in but Peter and Caroline I just want to turn to both of you on that livelihood crisis issue is that something you're seeing coming back to you from your experiences Peter? Well absolutely and I think there is kind of a divide in the world where I kind of the way say that just described some of the challenges in the more emerging economies especially in the western and european economies I think strategically we have a huge issue with the financing of the social welfare that is promised to the consumers and people are concerned about that outlook while at the same time we are confronted with shrinking populations and the lack of acceptance of migration to kind of backfill so I think that's one of the major dilemmas over the next 15 to 20 years for Europe that that goes kind of beyond the immediate issue that we have in the labour market because strategically I think the shrinking population is one of the things that is not discussed enough in terms of the responses we'll find today. Thanks for that. Caroline? Yeah I just add that the pandemic has really amplified the livelihood crisis in that we've seen lockdowns and border closures and I think as a result of that many young feel that they have been robbed of many avenues of you know education or international migration or opportunities and that in turn accelerates the social cohesion erosion and that frustration that is increasingly being being voiced in the streets and that just goes to show how incredibly interconnected this risk environment is and that we really need to pay attention to it and take a very holistic view of the emerging risk landscape. Thanks for that. Turning to Laurie Göring from Thompson Royces. Laurie your question. Thank you for taking the question. I'm curious how you effectively turn all these net zero pledges that you've been talking about into the kind of swift change that we need. Most of them are voluntary still and really still far too fuzzy in the critical short term period in the next decade. Is it time to give those more teeth and turn them into something other than voluntary pledges? You know we talked a little bit about activist shareholders and so on but I'd be curious to see how you speed this up.  You know does there need to be more teeth as Laurie says behind these changes? Well the question is what teeth do you expect is it realistic for governments to kind of come up with fringe and regulation in the next few years and that's the time horizon if you look at this kind of this decay the regulation would need to come in very quickly. I mean we see how we see how difficult that seems to be. The business side of it I think there you see much more developments. You see companies anticipating the change. You see companies trying to adapt and the private initiatives are starting I think to gain more ground because people see the opportunity rather than the regulatory requirement and I think that's from my perspective the optimistic perspective on it. I don't expect governments to read in this. Your thoughts on that dimension of government regulation? Yeah I agree with Peter and I think it is probably going to be more connected to the stakeholder capitalism and shareholder activism because that is going to create a real push for companies to stay true to their commitments and also this increased focus on ESG targets and metrics because I do think the ESG based investments that we're seeing is really reshaping the financial and economic landscape and it's important to recognize that commitments made by businesses and governments now are being closely monitored by civil society organizations and investors looking out for promises that maybe may have been made for short term political or financial gain or might indicate greenwashing and I think those companies and governments that don't stay true to their commitments they're going to suffer and I think that's going to create that acceleration and development that we need that we want to see. Thanks Karolina. Bring Bulgarian. I agree on the on the premises in the question what you can measure you also get done so with the commitments both now from the private sector and also from governments it should be as clear and concrete as possible. For example at the World Economic Forum we have this coalition of global CO climate leaders and the prerequisite for being part of that alliance is that your company then commits and has a plan to go net zero by 2050 that's a prerequisite for entering the alliance and I think this is one illustration I think also we will see increased focus in the years to come now also related to countries that have taken on clear commitments in Glasgow going net zero by 2040 2050 some companies even companies have said 2030 and I think if you make such a commitment I think also the media will increasingly hold countries and companies accountable for their pledges and I think that's a good thing. Thanks for that Bulgarian. Time for I think we're squeezing a couple more questions. We've got Dawei Peng from China News, Damian McElroy, Damian Dawei can we get your questions Dawei first. Hello greetings from Germany yes actually I have two questions if I may my first question is that the recently the Eurasia Group named China's zero COVID policy as quote top risk number one for 2022 and what's your take on this issue and my same question is that given the new characteristics of the Omicron variant is it time for countries to move on now to focus on some more long-term risks thank you. Thanks for that and Damian your question. My questions around you talk about the increased digital innovation but you also talk about increased digital inequality I wonder if you could expand on just ways to remedy the inequality and I was also a bit intrigued about whether you think there is from all the innovation and interest in space there is going to be more global inequality as a result of that. Thanks for those questions I'm going to go for a last tour of our panelists and probably ending with the author and head of the report team, Sadiya Zahidi but maybe starting on digital inequality and with space that seems like a natural link into Karolina Clint in Stockholm who addressed that right at the very beginning Karolina what's your view on how we can tackle some of that digital inequality and should we be concerned about a new space inequality. I think that might be a risk absolutely and I think I mean the digital inequality that we've seen it will just continue to be amplified given the fact that we depend on digitization so much more today I mean with just from a corporate point of view the switch to remote working would not have been possible and has been more difficult in economies that are not as mature in terms of digitalization and networks and I think that is a risk that we need to be aware of and we need to continue addressing absolutely and I think the same goes through for space I mean as a matter of fact the digitalization and especially global communication is very dependent on space space is closer than we might imagine because all of the satellites that are orbiting above us is actually the reason that we can have global communication that is effective and I think we're going to see increased geopolitical tensions now different countries are really racing towards you know leveraging the opportunities that space presents so absolutely an area to continue watching I would say. Thanks for that. Peter to Dawa's question about Omicron and and Zero COVID and perhaps also looking past the pandemic I suppose the very theme of this report is to look up from the present crisis and to look at the risks that are in in the next five to ten year horizon. What are your kind of concerns and hopes at the end? I mean these corona viruses and it's not the first one that hit human populations I mean they become endemic I would give you a lot if you could tell me for sure whether the Omicron is now the one that makes it endemic because that would be the end of what we know as pandemic. Can you a zero tolerance for a virus in an interconnected world is from a risk perspective an interesting concept it reminds me when we looked at the digital security and had a zero tolerance years ago I think it's as unrealistic if the world is interconnected viruses will travel with the humans we I think we have to accept that as a matter of fact how we deal with that I think is subject to local preferences and and political realities but at the end of the day I think from a risk perspective you have to accept that the viruses will always travel with the humans and if you allow human movement you're bound to transport the viruses. Thanks for that Borgo just reflecting your kind of final thoughts on this year's risk horizon if you like and what we should be paying most attention to. I think this has been a very good discussions on some of the main risks that we are facing. We have economically overcome the most dramatic possible outcome of the pandemic even if of course by 2024 we would have had 2.4 percent more economic growth if it wasn't for the pandemic I think the way the world indirectly came together with that massive stimulus has secured us a path forward also for inclusive economic growth now it is up to the leaders we're not out of the woods on the pandemic I would strongly just underline that the world economic forum has no concrete views on how concrete countries are handling this I think each country have the best assessment of how to deal with this but these kind of challenges we know are global challenges pandemic or a virus doesn't travel with the passport and doesn't know borders that's for sure I think also the question about inequalities when it comes to the digital peace is critical if we're going to see more inclusive growth in the years to come we really have to address heads on the global digital inequalities 3.6 billion people of the global population are not connected as sufficiently to the internet and how can we then see leapfrogging in these developing countries that's why also the world economic forum with our key partners have launched this Edison alliance where we try to bring business and governments together and to close this digital gap so everyone should have a chance in the future to be sufficiently digitally connected so we can mitigate that risk so thank you thanks for that and finally I know reporters always hate this question but I'll have to ask anyway Sadiq if there were one thing that you would like people to take away from this report as they go away from this press conference what would that thing be I'm going to say two things I think one is we do have to acknowledge the rising tension between the current very negative social outcomes and the aspirations that exist to manage this green transition well over the last couple of years the richest 20 percent in the world were able to recover half of their losses whereas the poorest 20 percent lost five percent more of their income in that situation we do have to think very differently about how do we restore access to education how do we give people better access to health and health care how do we ensure that people do have adequate access to heating and electricity so there is a lot and and to Berge's point how do we ensure that those 3.6 billion people do actually receive connectivity and access to the internet so there is a tension here that has to be managed but the second point then is despite all of these global risks and challenges it is very clear that there is a virtuous cycle that we could be aiming towards that is about restoring growth but it's about restoring growth and productivity that is inclusive that is sustainable and we do have the technologies and the policy capabilities to be able to do that so it's going to take political will it's going to take public private collaboration it's going to take looking at technology and science and ensuring that we use it but it is very possible and we've seen that happen with the development of vaccines and next week we will be at the Davos agenda week looking at how do we ensure that there is better access to those vaccines around the world we'll be looking at the rescaling revolution that is needed to deal with some of these social issues we'll be pulling together a number of the leaders that are looking at how we ensure greater digital digital equality and of course we will be pulling together a number of the leaders from various sectors that are looking at managing the climate transition so stay tuned for that next week thank you very much Saadia thanks to our partners in this work SK Group and representing Marsh Karolina Clint representing Zurich Peter Geiger and to my colleagues here in Geneva Borga Brenda and Saadia Zahidi and of course thanks to you for joining us and hope you find interesting data and insights in this year's report goodbye from all of us and have a good day


Hey, this is John from St. Petersburg, Florida, and you're watching Trucker Josh vlogs on YouTube Good morning, everybody. We're here in Medicine Hat, Alberta Just walking in for our morning coffee Get on the highway and we're gonna book it home Should be home late tonight. Welcome drivers Well, thank you. I Feel very welcome. I'll feel even more welcome to one. They have coffee ready. I can smell it already. Oh my old friend It's actually my new friend We're best friends Hey Did this to me before already? Give me my coffee Hey Hey, why is it not working? Oh, this isn't good. This isn't good. I will fight you What does it not know? There's a cup there. There's sensor or something. What's going on? Wait, wait, wait. Are we in large? It's working now. Okay large Colombian No room for cream. Even though I put cream in there if you if you tell it to leave room for cream it leaves like That much room. So just say no room for cream and you'll still have room for cream. I Put the cream in first, but I don't have to mix it. Oh There comes the goodness. Oh, yeah, come on. It's brewing It's working. It's magic. How's my beard? I'm getting to that length where I wake up and it's all like And it grows like this I'm gonna get myself a beard straightener though very soon and every morning I can straighten it and make it magnificent So good morning. Yes, we are on our way to home Start this girl up. Come on girl. Well, I know you want to I know you want to wake up. We're going home today We're going home today.  I Knew it. I love you too girl wish you were Ken Martho. So I told you yesterday was right out here What's rattling? Hi, none of that stuff So I told you yesterday that we had some news today, right? I'm excited to tell you I'm excited. I don't want to get you too excited. It's not the news That you're waiting for okay, but it's Good news on the way to the news that you're waiting for Let's get out of the sun. I'm blinding I'm being blinding. It's blinding out here Chevy is blinding What? Yeah, I'm a weird guy. You'll get used to it. Diesel's used to my weirdness already You're still a little Cautious about it. I didn't know my dad was so weird.  I want to go home. Let's get on the road Officially began Be gone began begun our day.  It knows when you're awake It just doesn't know if you've been bad or good, but you should still be good For goodness sake I'm still in Christmas mode. It's January. I need to I Need to calm down How many days till Christmas Chevy? 350 what? Before we go home, are you excited? I'm excited. I'm excited to share with you guys the news All right, and I already told you it's not the she's not pregnant yet. Okay, so it's not the news That's the news It's not that It's related to that having a baby my wife Which I'm not too sure what that stands for but that's the whole process of what I explained to you before where they they take My guys and they drop them off at the finish line. They give them an elevator ride so they don't have to take the stairs Because apparently they're not very fast to taking the stairs, but there's lots of them So all they need is a little bit of help with the fertility Prescriptions that my wife Britt is on are extremely extremely fertile and the chances and likelihoods of multiples Are very very high with the doctor's help this month On Monday, it's that she could conceive this month So we're both very excited Britt called me today all smiles and jumping around 2020 now And we've been trying to have our first child ever since we got married. So by the time you watch it It'll already be done So I appreciate the thoughts and prayers that I'm sure you guys will send but If you do want to send thoughts and prayers Maybe send them that the conception will work because we still won't know by the time you watch this the procedure will be done But we still won't know if she's actually pregnant For a while yet, and we wouldn't be announcing it for a few months So those of you that have been following us for any length of time, you'll know that what we did get pregnant once A little over a year ago the miscarriage And it was pretty devastating It's something that affects the woman a lot more because it's her body, right? We'll get back to talking about trucking in a second. Don't worry guys. I don't want to lose you But we're really hoping that this will be a healthy baby So we will know next month if she's pregnant or not But we're not gonna for quite a while for a few months.  Are they pregnant? Are they not? I don't know But if you do want to send thoughts and prayers, we would really appreciate it that this month would be the month that we conceive And have a that we have a healthy pregnancy and a healthy baby Even if it's multiples We don't care if it's a boy or a girl We just want a healthy baby So exciting times Mondays the day I'll vlog about it. So you can look forward to that vlog either tomorrow or the day after tomorrow Get this sun out of our face It's getting higher in the sky though. Look at that. It's not too bad. We're we're facing pretty much directly south there So we're ahead east here So you can tell that the sun is still well in the southern hemisphere here in canada Australia you're hogging all the sun From what I can see you guys don't even need the sun if you could send it back That'd be great We miss it up here. It's cold But the sun is getting closer and closer to the center of the sky I mean it's still way over there But in summertime, it'll rise off to our left in wintertime. It'll rise off to our right I explain this to you guys all the time. I know but it's it's fascinating to me. I don't know Super cool imagine living on the equator and like never having seasons It'd be a little pretty boring Summer wouldn't be as special. I'd never get to experience winter Which would be totally fine, but you never get snow and snow is I like snow when it's not on the road So we have 1,059 kilometers To work and then I got to go home after that you will be home probably around midnight Yeah, I wanted to be home earlier than that but uh Somebody had to take a couple of bathroom breaks in the middle of the night somebody who's very Fluffy and handsome He's not used to the truck. So he's not used to the schedule that diesel is so he woke me up a couple of times Needed to go uh need to go do some business But that's okay. We just slept a little longer. I'm feeling great now got my coffee Had a smoothie for breakfast He pretty much a straight shot drive We don't need to stop for a half hour break because we're in canada. That's an american Law they like to tell you that you need to take a 30 minute break sometimes your day. Canada's just like, yeah We trust you stop when you need to stop a just don't overdo it. Okay All right So I'll stop. I just don't need to take a 30 minute break. Maybe I'll take a 15 minute break. That's all I need I need a little coffee break No, you don't need a 30 minute break. It's a waste of a 30 minutes So it'll be a pretty much a straight shot there about 10 hours of driving highway speed. There's not much in the way because we're just driving across prairies So about 10 10 and a half hours just driving Closet bathroom breaks and we'll have to stop to fuel I'm hoping I can make it all the way to heading lane winnipeg and fuel there 10 a.m. Here now in mountain time. I live in central time. So it's 11 a.m. There So I'll be back at the yard 10 10 30 Boy, yeah, I'll probably be around midnight when I get home Oh, we've been making really good time We're here just arriving in moose jaw in Saskatchewan Slow down to 60 kilometers an hour when passing police Somebody's getting a spanking. He's been a very bad boy Here instead he must have just been flying into town because the speed limit right here at this exit goes down to 80 kilometers an hour Well, there's another cop off on the right over there on that exit lane interesting Usually people get speeding tickets in here just off to the right. You'll see this little barrier barrier here That little box on the end of it. That's a speed camera If you're doing more than 80 kilometers an hour 50 miles an hour through here you get a big fine As usually where they catch the most amount of people because they'll come in here barreling in at highway speed Of like 110 kilometers an hour 70 miles an hour I'll give you one guess where we are I'll give you a hint Rhymes with bologna I don't even know if I'm pronouncing that right is it about keep calling it balgoni because that's what I've always called it We need one of their fresh ground bean coffees I'm not going to fuel up here yet though I want to fuel up in heading lease that I have full tanks to park this truck for a day or two Continue on this road for six kilometers. So I'll be getting home tonight, which is saturday night when I'm filming this Uh home for tomorrow sunday and then monday is when we go in for our procedure So I'll probably leave with my load monday night I'll be reset then and we can deliver this in iowa on wednesday morning It's just over a day's drive.  I think it's gonna be a good year. I don't know. It's gonna be a good decade I have a good feeling about this IUI procedure that's going on. I have a good feeling about it I think that it's gonna take So 2020 could bring us a baby Well, I was gonna park in front of the pumps, but it looks like everybody else is already parked in front of the pumps So i'm gonna back into a parking spot instead of blocking a pump. How's that sounded? This is 26 foot leash That's as far as it goes The longest one I could find on amazon It's called a flexi giant l of eight meters I think that's 26 feet, right? Made in germany So I trust chevy to not be on the leash here, but I don't trust all these drivers around here not to run them over So for his own safety Eight meters is quite a bit though. He's got a lot of freedom to run around At least this way if you know he runs out part of the truck or something crazy like that I can go into dad mode and go, whoa and pull him back, right? What do you smell everybody? What do you smell? Anything interesting anything interesting? Somebody else was here Somebody else. I'm gonna let them know I was here too Good boy chev. Good boy all righty All is right in the world. We have our coffee numero do today Let's get out of here I'll thread the needle between the pumps here Our exit because there's someone trying to park over there to our right. So we'll this way to avoid that mess Holy just in case if somebody's walking across here careful Okay Back on the road. So it's about six hours to work from here. So we're gonna drop the trailer And we'll go home from there. It looks like I'll probably be home around midnight. That's what I'm thinking Just enough time to pretty much shower and go straight to bed. I'm not sure what time brit got up this morning So I'm guessing she's probably got up Well, I think she was up earlier than me so she'll probably be tired and sleeping by that time. Hopefully I don't Wake her up too much Hopefully she'll still be awake because I hate getting home after she goes to bed because when I get home All the dogs go nuts and I know diesel diesel hasn't seen me in a week. So he's gonna lose his mind And then if she's already sleeping that means she's wide awake It is not possible for me to sneak into the house, which is a good thing one footstep on the porch in there Long guard But we don't discourage that it's a good thing and aware of Anyone even if it is just me well for the first time ever for me My fuel light just came on No, Karen, I think we're gonna need to put some fuel in this thing My fuel light came on I guess I don't it works. I never let it get this low. I still got an eighth of a tank, but Thanks, blod we're here. We made it The fuel up we're in winnipeg by the way and uh gonna fuel up and drop the trailer off and go home So for those of you that are wondering how much is the cost to fill that thing up When the low fuel light was on Well, it took 720 liters it cost me 935 and 31 cents Happy new year


those to the actual and again we would expect some of the averages to be of above and below they're not going to be exact even though we took as large or sample from 10 to a hundred this time but we would expect that they would approximate closer towards you know a middle a middle point with this kind of spread this type of data so if I select this and let's put our our tools around now notice you might also let's insert another column I'm going to insert a column between BP and BQ so I'm going to do that to insert an entire column it always inserts to the left so if I select BQ the entire column right click on the selected and insert it will insert a column to the left now you got to be careful of doing that if there's anything below it that's going to be messed up but there's nothing below here so that's the easiest way to kind of move this stuff to the right so the other way if there was something below then if I undo that hold on a second it's thinking if I undo that if there was something like below here I can select just these items I can pull it to the right like this or I could I could cut right click and cut which is more efficient and pasted to the right like that or one more time I could select these cells and then I want to shift these to the right by right clicking let's it's now I got to get rid of the dancing ants so I'm going to double-click select these cells right click and insert and then I can say I want to shift them not down but rather to the right so then I can shift them to the right so a bunch of different ways you can do the same thing which will be useful depending on whether there's data to the bottom or to the right of it for example so then I could say let's take the average of the averages right I could say why did I took the 100 tests and I got the average for each test let's take the average of the averages and so that gives us the the 6799 which is which is pretty which is like right on basically you know we can add more decimals because this is all this is actually longer decimals than two so it's not going to be perfect but you know you get you get pretty close with that because that's pretty that's a lot that you know that we kind of come so let's make this font group and brackets and put some borders around this and then now of course if you wanted to you can also insert histograms from this information we could make like 11 histograms for each of the data sets of a hundred data points we could make a histogram as well of the averages of the results but there's only 11 of them so that might not be enough data to do that but you know if you chose like the entire sample let's say sample 11 here and I'm going to hold down control shift down to the bottom and then I'm holding down shift to not pick up the total so that I and then I scroll up so I just want to go down to 101 not 102 and then I'm going to hold down control backspace taking me back to the top I know I'm using a lot of key strokes here but I'm just trying to point out that if you have a large set of data that's going to be more efficient than then like scrolling down and then scrolling up although you can do either one even with a hundred data points it's not too bad to scroll down but when you get really large data sets then it's useful to use the keys strokes so then we can go to the insert and we can go to the charts and insert a histogram so now you've got a histogram of that last sample man I deleted the of that last sample so you could you could see it kind of approximates the actual histogram right here's the actual you could say here's the actual histogram and then here's our sample that last sample of 100 so it might be let's let's put the sample of a hundred if I did a couple of these let's say we did number 10 control I'm putting my control shift down shift up and then control backspace and then I'm going to put this one next to it over here insert charts histogram boom so here's here's another one of sample 10 so right so and then let's just make one more as you get an idea we got a different spreads of the data of a hundred shift down and and shift up and then control backspace and then I'm gonna scroll to the right shift to the Lou scroll to the right and then skip to the Lou and then scroll to the right that's a song skip to the Lou my darling I'm not sure what the Lou I think that's a instrument but whatever then we're gonna go to the insert tab and then charts drop down histogram and so here's another histogram and so you can get an idea of you know when I when I when I pull these what's the spread of each of these of the of each of these samples of of a hundred and and notice one of the questions we come to is well how close are two way to the center point that's what we've been looking at and also you know what is the characteristic shape of the spread also kind of similar to the actual data set that's another kind of question that we would like to be able to know and it can help us to then also think about how confident we are that like the actual center point and and the distance you know the distances between them is is is correct which we'll get into more technically later but for now we want to just practice using our Excel tools as well to kind of think about how we can create some of these random samples and manipulate some of the data and then and then do our calculations on them