The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and folks, we got a two-way market man. We have had some higher prices since last Thursday. You're talking about an S&P that trades from $3,500 up to $3,777. We make that high early yesterday. We come into that high just towards the close. We accelerate last night even at 7 o'clock. You see the acceleration even after hours. Strong numbers from Netflix. We'll jump over to Netflix in a moment. We make it right backed up to about $3,770 and then the S&Ps folks, they trade down almost 2% from where we were last night. It was quite an upside market. You give up almost 60 points from where we were trading at last night at $3,711. We just made lows in the last 15 minutes coming into the lows that we had yesterday. We get some action and currencies man. We'll be talking to our man Teddy Kegstad at 40 past the hour. Great day to have him on when we get some dollar action going on and he's got a webinar coming up a week from today. We'll talk about that as well on the front page of TFNN. Let's jump over to the dollar index man. You talk about a move.  You wake up this morning at 1.13. Just that quick folks, dollar strength in a big way. We jump over to notes and bonds. Lower price, higher yield coming at you in the 10 year. You talk about a move man. Just moves everywhere right now. The 10 year, say goodbye to 4.1%. We are above that price level. We are above that yield level I should say as the 10 year almost got on 109 handle. Take a look at the daily folks. That's a low. It's a lower low. We are almost sitting at lows. You're looking at a 10 year of 4.11%. 4.11% the yield on the 10 year. Absolutely wild as the move continues. You jump over to the 30 year. That's making a new low as well. You go down a full point and 14 ticks in the 30 year at 1.20.204. I talked about the dollar index. You put that thing on a daily basis just well within the channel line. Now we've been talking about the Euro right. We talked about it yesterday man. We talked about the channel line. Look at the reversal right at that channel line. You put this thing on a 15 minute. You basically rolled over right as you got into that yesterday right. You touched it early, early yesterday. Now we don't have volume sheets a little bit but this is about 3 AM Tuesday. We were back into this level right during my program because I was talking about it. You got up to that level last night as well and then finally you sell off from 98.5 almost down a full point to 97.7 in the Euro US dollar. You jump over to the pound, pound down to 1.1234. Now pound a little bit of a different action going on as you're actually coming down to the bottom part. Not quite as well defined on the pound as they have their own issues going on for sure. You talk about your own issues man. It's not stopping folks. To the upside we go. You're pushing almost 150 right now. That impacting of course commodities. Gold down $18 to $1637. The low recently on gold 1622. We were just at a price tag on gold of 1734. You give up about a hundred bucks over the last two weeks in the price of the gold contract. I mean look at we just keep jumping around man. You jump over to the VIX. There's action everywhere in this market folks. The VIX is actually the thing that doesn't have as much action going on right. Look at the action we have overnight in the dollar index in notes and bonds. Look at the reversal we have going on in the S&Ps right now. Okay yeah it is dwarfed folks by the move we've had since Thursday. What is that? Let's look it up exactly. We're dealing with some funny money percentages folks when you're talking about 275.25 points is the low of Thursday to the high of yesterday and that on a percentage basis is 7.86% from low to high. This market and just like that though we give up almost 75 points. That's a 2% pullback from where we were early yesterday. That's a 70 point pullback from where we were at 930. Now we've gone over those numbers but I reiterate those numbers when you look at the VIX because what's going on the VIX? The VIX is just staying right at 3132 right now. No matter what is happening in this market I mean look at the moves we've had in the market. I just told you from where we were Thursday okay yeah we've dropped from 33 to 31, 3350 to 3150. Friday we were back almost at 33 yesterday we were almost at 32 and meanwhile we've got an 8% move low to high. We've got a 2% pullback okay a VIX of 32 represents a move of 2% every one out of three days. You could make the argument right now that the VIX is underpriced with the type of action we have going on in this market. Okay lots to talk about this morning let's jump over to Netflix. Netflix out with their numbers last night and they beat.  Added 2.41 and they're looking for more than 4 million the next quarter as well so the streamer added 2.41 million customers in the third quarter the market was looking for something like a million maybe a little bit more they grew in all regions of the world and they expect to sign up another 4.5 million globally this period yeah they had a quote in here now this one's a strong one man thank god we're done with shrinking quarters well hopefully he's pretty confident because if they come back to shrinking quarters in the next quarter or two that quote is going to be brought up so would be something that hopefully he would say if he just had the confidence to say it maybe that is the strength that they are returning and no longer shrinking quarters that was during a webcast interview and yeah they've gotten pummeled recently man but a strong slate of fresh programs attracted millions of new viewers in the third quarter new episodes of stranger things was in there to start things off yeah I mean it's interesting right I mean Dave White was talking about this yesterday and stranger things definitely I actually haven't watched the final season of that yet interesting right I've watched every season up to it I probably will time is valuable folks I don't have all the time in the world watching TV that's pretty low on the totem pole thankfully in terms of priorities in life and where my time goes I'm watching House of Dragons right now that's a good one man if you're into Game of Thrones you haven't watched House of Dragons on HBO check it out in HBO actually has a great deal you can save 40% if you sign up for the year which is not bad if you use it they get some great programs on there but not a ton in terms of what they're pushing out there to really drive people in and they still added that many subscribers to blow away the expectations revenue grew to 7.93 billion beating analyst projections and profit was a big beat to 310 versus a share versus $2 and change the market was looking for there's still in pace for the slowest growth slowest growth in years yeah but that's a turnaround from what the market was thinking folks and where it shifts to there is what happens with their ad supported here they kind of just went public so we'll see where that goes we jump to some of the other streamers Disney got a lift last night on those numbers they're going to pull back a little bit this morning down to about a hundred from 98 let's see how some of the others Warner Brothers Discovery they catch a little bit of a lift as well yeah Paramount gets a little bit of a lift they pull back as well the other one out this morning how about United man I just saw an interview with the United CEO on Bloomberg earlier this morning talking about his numbers he was talking about Boeing as well man talking about that those planes take a look at Boeing yeah that's a tough one man that channel line I've left it on the chart but broke well below it not really intact to any degree broke out of that thing in April of this year and you're in trouble on Boeing man but United they seem like they wanted to buy Boeing planes if they could now United let's see we got two Fibonacci lines let's let's take these off for some clarity here now this does not show today's action which is going to lift it to right about 40 yeah this is gonna be interesting man so check it out we're coming into an area as my dad would say ice we're coming into that area an area of support an area resistance we're gonna talk to our man Kevin Hinks when we get back folks we'll talk to him about a little United get his take as well stay tuned to be right back this to gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project this to gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve this to gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and 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mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors tfnn has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we get the S&P futures negative by 22 points right now trading at 3710 NASDAQ 100 you negative by about 73 trading down six tenths percent 11000 125 let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks every trading day folks on tiger TV the TD Ameritrade Network with fast market at noon eastern time Kevin Hinks Tom White they do an outstanding program folks they talk about the markets they talk about options they walk you through hypothetical trade setups and man we are coming into the thick of earning season and Kevin Hinks man we got some currencies we get the dollar strength we get the market rolling over but earnings man we got Netflix beaten we got united higher today we got proctor proctor and gamble higher today as well good morning Kevin good morning Tommy O'Brien and happy 35th anniversary of the 1987 crash so watch out baby knows where he was knows where he was that day I'm not sure if you do but I'm not sure your father does Tommy maybe I was in what grade would I be in what's the seven year old in 1987 are they in first grade by then maybe some kicking around pretty interesting man I'm sure I know right time amazing man when we look at today go no further than if you have a word on your phone for economic data your phone probably went off around two o'clock eastern when the UK CPI data came out and it came out hotter than expected Tommy and that's when the dollar rally that's when yields turned up and that is even though we have your right great news out of Netflix kind of a relief rally that you're seeing in Netflix great news out of United Airlines airline strength continuing to be strong and great news out of proctor and gamble with their organic growth of set sales growth of 7% but Tommy as you know we trade a macro economy right now and UK year over year CPI coming out at 10.1% was a bit alarming for most people and so their month-over-month data was 0.5 that's higher than the 0.4 so the two numbers for CPI in the UK which whether you wanted to or not all these economies are related inflation is not under control right now Tommy that's why you see yields where they are that's why you see the dollar where it is and stocks gonna have a tough time today yeah I mean it seems like the numbers persist to say the least man and you have some Fed speak out there today at Kashkari out there one of the headlines I saw is pulled up on Bloomberg saying can't pause rate hikes with core inflation accelerating and man core I mean we talked about we've talked about a Kevin shelter prices a big part of that we're seeing mortgage rates I think I saw another headline right now yeah I got it nine six point nine four I see one mortgage rates the US extends the highest since 2002 interesting to see how our CPI is gonna shape up when you hear Fed speak like that because that shelter component can lag and man we got some high mortgage prices as we've talked about it some pretty interesting issues but yeah dollar last night go to bed at 112 you wake up this morning you're at 113 and that yen yen's about to blow through 150 man commodities trading lower with that in mind Kevin we march forward what are you guys talking about a 12 o'clock on fast market coming up today you know Tommy in early season the shows right themselves so today Tesla IBM lamb research three great names all coming out with earnings after the bell today that's a lineup man Tesla IBM the checkout Tesla to what I mean what volatility Kevin in this market in general I said to you yesterday from the the low of Thursday to the high yesterday just in the S&P's three or four days you're pushing almost an 8% move folks in Tesla I mean boy you got a 15% move Kevin almost from Friday to the 230 action than IBM man been struggling you pull up IBM 123 right now you put that on the weekly up just above 140 but we'll see where that goes well Kevin we appreciate you taking the time on a busy day as always man we look forward to the program at 12 o'clock today and we'll talk to you tomorrow man have a great day Tommy thanks for having me on you too folks tune in every trading day we are coming into earning season man these hypothetical trades they set up folks even if you don't want to trade options understanding how they are priced understanding how they trade understanding how the premium is priced into them that can give you a wealth of knowledge even if you're just trading equities especially when you come into an earning season I mean for example we've talked about it many times but if you've never heard it you jump over to Tesla okay Tesla you talk about a pullback back to 220 right now you've just come into the lows we had from May right the low in May 206 the low in June 208 we just got down to a price level of 204 we're back to 220 right now on Tesla but you jump over to the analyze tab folks you've got the earnings coming out after the bell you've gotten an expected move okay of $13.55 and that is the move that is priced around earnings alone okay now that move comes from the premium that is priced into the options when you talk about the expected move of implied volatility now you want action just through the earnings event today that's $13.55 if you plan on holding the weekly options that expire through Friday then you're talking about an implied move of $17 in either direction you see the plus or minus okay that's saying if you're paying premium here to be the buyer of these options okay and let's just put them right at the money and you want action okay on the bullish side if you're buying calls excuse me left if you're at the money of about 220 as of the close of yesterday okay then you're paying about almost nine bucks you want the same action on the downside you're paying almost nine bucks that gets you to almost $18 and that's where you get the implied volatility so if you're an equity holder and you're coming into this earnings event okay are you comfortable with Tesla potentially moving an implied volatility move of about $17 this week alone because that's just a reasonable amount that this thing can move up or down you're risking it to the downside you're risking it to the upside that's the move the market is pricing in and it goes much deeper than that when you talk about the delta the gamma of all of that check out the program folks they're talking about three great stocks Tesla IBM Tesla's got some volatility let's see the move on IBM coming up for their numbers IBM you're talking about about a 5% move for IBM we jump over to the earnings one of the they are out today after the bell as well yeah and lamb research right LRC X I believe they're out with after the bell they're talking about a 5% move for land research as well and boy you talk about a pullback man 731 to 322 and this thing pricing at about a $16 move for their numbers after the bell as well it's going to be an interesting open folks this dollar index checking out the dollar index we've backed off a bit 1272 we take a look at the notes and bonds yeah no a little bit of a back off you could say pretty remarkable that we make lower lows after where we've been you put this thing on the daily right where did that reprieve come from June to the highs of August folks were 10 weeks later and you had the 10 year down 12 full points with a very little reprieve over that time now what I will say is folks eventually this market will roll over all right the dollar yen eventually will have some red days somewhere in it but not sure that's the case just yet but we have a treat because we will be talking our man Teddy keg stat at 40 past the hour folks and as I referenced he's doing a webinar a week from today great time to do a webinar you can sign up for the tiger 4x report in the front page of TFN and we'll talk to Teddy at about 40 past the hour and we'll get into all those currencies all right let's jump around to some of the fang stocks as we kick things off Amazon they're lower with the market now Amazon is very rate sensitive man this thing has 6% moves like it's nothing right now with what's going on with yields you were as high as 119 you're going to give up $4 in the pre-market you're at 114 78 you're going to be down to buck 50 the one quote I did say Bezos out there on social media I guess and not something too optimistic man as he's and where does he does it do it he replies to a tweet now where is it come on low for me there it is we'll bring this up and we get back probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches as he retweets Goldman Sachs CEO stay tuned folks will be right back Teddy keg stat has just announced a live webinar coming up for subscribers to his newsletter the tiger 4x report Wednesday October 26 that 4 p.m. Eastern time Teddy will be hosting a live 60 minute webinar 4x strategies and fundamentals what is behind the tiger 4x report newsletter in this 60 minute webinar Teddy will be discussing a full breakdown of the markets that influence currency pairs as well as applying those variables to individual currency pairs how to evaluate trading scenarios for risk versus reward as well as a live question and answer session sign up now and gain instant access to this live webinar coming up as well as a month subscription to Teddy's tiger 4x report which comes with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this live webinar event with Teddy kegs that Wednesday October 26th sign up 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educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com welcome back folks we get the S&P right now negative by 21 points quite a rollover overnight but you heard Kevin Hinks man it's a world economy folks and currencies boy they are shaping everything I keep jumping ahead of them ahead of our interview with Teddy but you can't help but see where they're moving because they had such an impact overnight folks from 112 to 113 in the dollar index we've got notes moving in dramatic fashion right now at the 10 year making new lows at 110 we're back at about 110.07 right now yeah so jumping back real quick before I jump in some other news so Bezos I mean pay attention man you know you don't you don't see CEOs of some of the biggest companies in the world talking about batting down the hatches and recession unless they probably think that way because that is not self-serving in terms of retail etc but he's out there and he's talking about David Solomon retweeting an interview segment clip that he had in terms of a good chance at a recession nonetheless it is what it is I guess at this point so spirit they approve shareholders approve a takeover by JetBlue ending a six month battle to create the country's fifth largest carrier now they have to go to regulators and see if that will get approved the allies now must convince them that that agreement won't harm competition and drive-up fairs for consumers I don't know how it doesn't to be honest they got a lot of flights around the northeast in the in the eastern side of the country taking a look real quick I was just googling the stuff like connections comm I guess that talks about all of them JetBlue okay backing out a bit you can see very heavy up in the northeast right they got New York New Jersey they got a big hub in Boston check it out when you talk about where you're going out of Boston I remember when they first started folks when I first got down here almost in 2005 or so I wonder when the routes originally began think about that man that's 17 years ago you think you're like new right but I remember when they were first starting fairs man they were pumping out fairs for like nothing 59 bucks when they were first beginning routes and they're still sometimes you find 99 bucks when you're talking about Boston to Tampa you talk about spirit okay spirit they got a lot up and down the eastern seaboard as well you take take a look at Boston Boston Tampa is a route many many less flights out of Boston but you see the general departures in terms of the northeast the southeast spirit going further west with more flights it seems and maybe down there but nonetheless they overlap a lot folks so very difficult to see how that wouldn't hurt consumers if it's gonna help the business in some degree in jet blue has just been a disaster man we jump over to their chart they get a lift today probably on that maybe I guess but check out this chart folks I mean I haven't even checked on this thing recently and it's making new lows of 621 last week man talk about blowing it that's below imagine trading below when March 23rd we didn't know if the world would ever be the same and we would travel the same way as we had right and that's where jet blue is so I wouldn't be so quick to think that that's gonna be the deal in their spirit spirit I mean yeah these airlines are all kind of in the gutter compared to where they were pre-pandemic but none of them are really near where you were on the lows of the pandemic right most of them are double that valuation at least United they're up 5.4% on their numbers Delta right now trading at 32 the lowest 17 back then Delta's up 1.7 still pretty low but then you look at jet blue they're in a class of their own man to the downside so be careful catching a lift of 1.5% the market they catch a little bit of a lift on the open from the market you're up about 15 points from where we open there's a pop for you at 37 23 right now we jump over to crude trading in 82 handle 82 70 after turning down to 81 30 yesterday for the price of crude okay let's jump around to some of the other headlines I referenced it to Kevin mortgage rates 6.94% the highest since 2002 that's a 30 year fixed contract rate it's risen for nine straight weeks the index of applications to purchase refinance lowest since 1997 shouldn't be surprising man and look at that spike right I mean you got to go back when 2002 is that last time that we were there man pretty remarkable and mortgage applications obviously related but taking a deep dive to that level I mean we've just been so low for so long I think it's gonna be really hard and yeah the mortgage news daily which updates more frequently 7.15% right now folks and you know what that's not let me see is yeah look I don't know where this data comes from okay but you want to shock a man just Google 30 year mortgage rates I got 7.62% on whatever Google's throwing my way man is that from bank rate where is this isn't this amazing that Google can put this up right and I don't even know where this data is coming from right it's showing me a chart where is this cheddar where is this from maybe the maybe bank rate now they're showing a 30 year fixed at 7.08% still bonkers numbers to the upside man that's gonna impact everything and you know what you have to pay attention to as well yeah and my dad's texting me as we as we speak folks and they're adding points on top of it so that's not even a real rate that they're adding points on top of the fixed rate that you're getting in there that you're paying so it's quite a shift to the upside to say the least and that would make sense when you get the 10 year pushing 4.1% the 30 is gonna be at least 7% at least if not much higher to that degree but markets catching a little bit of a lift right now at the S&P's only down about four let's jump through some of the other headlines I had pulled up here let's see what do we got no not that one yeah jumping back to this one so we speak about prices Nestle warned shoppers to raise for more price increases folks now they have been able to transfer this pretty well volume of goods sold eased by 0.2% the third quarter as Nestle raised prices 9.5% until now consumers have been willing to absorb higher cost despite a bike spike in inflation that's squeezed budgets across the board it hasn't passed on all its higher input cost they say the impact of higher energy okay it's stifling demand for some of it now their margins I was reading this earlier yeah the group confirmed it's 17% operating margin pretty decent though that's the target for the year that would be the second consecutive annual decline so they're seeing seeing declining margins think about that they're raising prices 9.5% and they're talking about declining margins on the second year in a row they're facing some big issues across the board though whether you talk about currencies whatever it is now they make a ton of stuff Nestle it's not just Nestle chocolate bar chocolate bars they got purina pet food they have Nespresso coffees pods among many others full-year revenue growth about 8% and the raising prices 9.5% though right the top end of the previous range the group confirmed yeah and the operating margin declining for the second straight year but nonetheless they're able to raise them we'll see if they can keep raising them folks as the people become a little bit aware of the tightening economy and tightening up their own belt I talked about this briefly as well and this is you solve this one man you solve everything okay but we got some Fed speak out there today and you have Minneapolis Fed chief Neil Kashkari and he's been a bit of a hawk but he's saying core services which is the stickiest of all keeps climbing and we keep getting so surprised on the upside yeah if we don't see progress in underlying inflation or core inflation I don't see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5 or 4.7.5 you start seeing a lot of that folks watch out because that's a strong statement man and it's it's it's a reasonable opinion to say the least folks if you're seeing that sticky inflation why would you stop right there's an argument to be made that there may be some lag stay tuned folks we're gonna talk to our man Teddy keg stat should be a good segment we got some currency action we'll be right back in three minutes stay tuned you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written 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is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ welcome back folks we get the S&P's they give back that little pop we just got right now you're negative by 20 points trading at 37 12 we jump over the dollar index dollar index right now you give back some of that as well still positive by 62 pennies right now 112 75 we take a look at the end dollar yen right now 149 74 almost sitting at the highs and folks let's jump over to our man Teddy kegs that you can check out Teddy's tiger forex report right on the front page of TFN and poke folks he publishes a report weekly every Monday you can sign up for that and we got a treat because a week from today folks he'll be hosting a webinar at 4pm Eastern time for subscribers you can sign up for the tiger forex report you gain access to the newsletter which is an outstanding letter in itself it's $97 for a month folks you get a 30 day money back guarantee no matter what you'll gain access to the webinar coming up a week from today at 4pm that will be archived if you can't attend live you get the newsletter for a month if it's just not up your alley you don't trade for whatever reason you're not into it and folks there's so much great information you're seeing what happens in currencies right now man the market is kind of promoting this thing itself with the impact the dollars have on the markets across the board but check it out folks front page of TFN and we're going to talk to Teddy right now find out about that webinar Teddy Kegsteck good morning good morning Tommy how about that US dollar yen trading I said you know what it seems like it's always a great day to have you on Teddy man but we know you know you've given us an education these currencies they are driving so much of what's going on in this market and before we jump into the dollar Teddy because I want to talk to you about it all man how about the yen pushing 150 we got a lot of gold traders out there gold negative today but if you could real quick talk us through what you're going to be going through and what you've put together for the subscribers of the Tiger Forex report next Wednesday sure so next Wednesday we're going to have a one-hour webinar and we're basically going to go over like how I do they put the Tiger Forex report together going to look at the markets that influence the US dollar and other currency pairs and then we'll break down where they're at where those trends are and what kind of influence they should have on the different currency pairs that we're going to talk about which will be all your major ones like the pound the euro the yen and the Aussie the New Zealand and the Canada it's awesome and I can't wait subscribers I'm sure it'll be some definite value to say the least and let's jump into it man last night how about that dollar index right you go to sleep at 112 and you wake up at 113 in the market obviously reacts what's your take on on the dollar as we kick things off well very strong it's not hard to believe it because I mean look at the bond the 30 year bonds in the tenure notes you know I mean if you look on a weekly chart of both of them they've been in the red for you know this is going on you know since the beginning of the summer time there is no wilds up week whatsoever you know and even on the daily basis we've made new lows again so I think that is definitely driving the surge it's definitely helping to help lift the US dollar yen to towards 150 you know we've had a 150 price target since the beginning of the summer and I was looking for it to be the end of October beginning of November so now we're we're budding up against that right now I would use caution if you're already long keep your stops tight and look for a correction of pullback I would look to be a buy dip kind of scenario for if you're not in the trade I would wait to buy it lower I wouldn't try and jump in right now I'm not afraid of buying new highs or selling new lows but in this situation I would use caution as we hit the 150 level because I mean we could easily see I mean we had just a month and a half ago you know a seven handle range that happened in the course of just over an hour in the US dollar yen so if the elbows kick and the stops start to really get run you know if the dollar has any type reversal day you might see a three four handle pull back in the US dollar yen so you gotta be prepared for that it's a great point I mean the moves are just so large right now even when I pulled up the S&P I had said to our man Kevin Hinksteady I talked to him Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday and from the time I talked to him Thursday this Tuesday the S&P was up almost 8% man 8% from Thursday to Tuesday so point being right you get some pullbacks and man the market is just moving everywhere what about crude Teddy as we pull back to about 82 bucks we've seen quite a little pullback in the last what five eight days in crude as well. Yeah it's nice you know this crude is definitely stabilized over the past couple of months but I don't see it as being a bear I see this as just being an extended little range trade that's going on for the oil market I can't see how we would trend lower into the holidays in the new year like I don't see us going from Iraq going down to say like 70-65 dollars something like that over the next few months I see us going back up above 100 actually by Christmas time or New Year's and how for the listeners that haven't heard you talk about it and maybe this is something that you could even talk about and maybe you had planned on it when you talk about the webinar but you've given such a great education in crude and especially how that relates to producing countries like the U.S. and then how that ties to a country like Japan could you just talk about that a little bit and how that shaping kind of what's going on in this market right now or if that's one of the impacts you're talking about where is that in the in the conversation that you look as you look at the dollar especially with the yen. Well you know what that's actually a really good question especially because now we have this talk coming out of Washington that our president wants to put a ban on exporting oil you know so if they do that that means that that's really going to impact the price of oil globally and I think that would also lift the U.S. dollar yen even much higher than it is because we supply oil around the world Japan's one of our allies and we do send oil that way you know so if we now start saying we're no longer going to export you know that means that global supply is going to there's going to be a supply chain issue with that you know we are we're already not the net exporter like we were you know but we're definitely still are exporting oil if we shut off those those lines of you know energy I think that the U.S. dollar yen could see probably an extra ten dollar rally I mean we could there's there's no intervention coming from the Japanese I'm stunned I mean I said this already you know six months ago when they had the first you know speak about saying how they were going to defend their currency when it was trading in the 120s you know and they said 130 was the line in the sand and then they had a couple weeks back where we had that big day with the you know where they said oh we're going to finally do something but they didn't you know so the reality is they're letting their currency crash and every time they speak they get a little correction but it doesn't hold because there's no real they're buying their bond market so you can't buy the bond market and support your currency at the same time yeah indeed yeah it's pretty wild um and yeah that was I think it was September 22nd pull-out chart almost a month ago it's crazy how time flies and since then one day of red three more days of red everything else green since then September 22nd on the daily basis on the dollar yen we got a question Teddy we got a caller all right let's jump to our call we got a caller Jeff from Philly Jeff good morning morning how are you doing well man how are you uh doing well i'll try not to take too much time a quick question for uh teddy please uh what i want to ask is uh suppose that you've been trading effects using futures for a few years but you're going to be uh but let's say that you switch or you need to switch to um trading effects in the cash market as opposed to the futures would you i noticed that the cash market seems to be a lot more spiky in the futures market and my question is would you trade uh i'm a pattern trader would you trade any differently the cash market than the futures market as well you know as far as the price action like in other words maybe keep a wider stops or you know would you trade it any differently that's a fantastic question um there is a big difference between trading the cash market and the futures market first of all is your liquidity issues in the cash you definitely have much more liquidity than you do in the futures um there's also you have rollovers that you have to deal with when you're trading that you know because there's always the front month so you know you have march september december and uh in june you know so those time periods around rollover you have to be very cautious about your position and whether now you roll that position because of the spreads i tell you steady can you hang on one second all right hang with us jeff hang with us all right because that's a great question and we'll come right back and we'll jump right back into it stay tuned folks we'll be right back in three minutes tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger stand available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of 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stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the fibonacci 24 seven newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we get the s and p's right now negative by 21 points we're talking our man teddy kegs that and don't forget folks check out on the front page of tfnn the tiger forex report you get the newsletter for a month you get a webinar coming up a week from today it should be an outstanding education check it out please sign up and we'll jump back into it we're talking our man jeff from philly and go for it teddy you were just talking about some of the differences between futures and the cash okay great question from jeff so to get back to his point especially says he says he trades patterns um the difference between futures and forex can be a great significant greatly significant when it comes to your type of trading um i mentioned the rollovers and expirations if you're in around the expiration months like basically like for june expiration if you were between may middle of may and middle of june you probably if you had a pattern that was a buyer sell signal that's going to last for a week or two you would rather be in the cash markets okay in the futures markets if it's not during the roles and the reason i say that is because you'd have to flip your contract so let's say you're long okay in a position and you're going into rollover depending on if the spread widens out or in you may when you flip explain you have to get get out of one contract and get you know basically sell out of your one long and then buy ins and at the future the next front month that spread could cost you money on your trade so you may be right on the long position but because you have to roll the contract in the middle of that position you may not see as much of a profit as you would you may see more it depends on how the spreads moving now the other thing is like for the fx markets like for instance me i've been long the us dollar yen for over 1415 months great to be long and have that trade on the only thing is i've been paying interest for 1415 months so especially during sideways periods that definitely even if i'm not losing money technically on the price i am losing money on the on the account balance because of the interest payment okay so those are factors you want to take in if you're doing a really long-term position fx is brought the fx cash is probably the way to go but you have to be mindful of your interest payments and the futures except for during rollovers that can be actually a much more lucrative way to trade the of those moves so absolutely great question jeff thank you so much for the call and calling in man we appreciate it teddy thank you so much join our web on wednesday jeff we'll talk to you wednesday and i look forward to the webinar next week teddy man thanks so much folks see you next week check out teddy's webinar on the front page of tfn and our man basil chatman's up next have a great wednesday everybody


This was the one which was worked out by one by Einstein and which is the many many things he did you know he did the Brownian motion and Brownian diffusion but this was the thing which was done somewhat later and it's a brilliant way that he started somehow he got into his idea to study the probability of a fluctuation and he introduced the concept that truth at system equilibrium in the homogeneous state it has two independent thermodynamic variables and he worked out with the and it played a very important role in the later discharge of hydrodynamics that he for example he took temperature and pressure and walked it out and this that situation isothermal isobaric is the best way to do hydrodynamics and he also do entropy and volume these fluctuations and then he found out the probability of fluctuation the way we did that he constructed a fluctuation and got the work done to this create that fluctuation and from there he did the probability of fluctuation now why do we talk of fluctuation okay and what is the reason we know that at equilibrium free energy free energy is minimum so now if the free energy is minimum then if I consider if I expand free energy as a function of say density and I say my density undergoes a fluctuation around equilibrium fluctuation so density is a not sorry row average plus delta row then the way one writes is that free energy a not at equilibrium row average now the first derivative of free energy with respect to density goes on like that now this quantity which is a derivative because the free energy is minimum these goes to zero so then I have and I make that delta change in free energy as a delta delta row then this also goes out then I can write as a first term of this Taylor expansion as so this should be just derivative partial derivative other things kept fixed now then we can say that if I want to have a fluctuation that fluctuation has this cost in free energy that means your small enough fluctuation my free energy surface is harmonic the zero average okay is that clear is a very trivial logic but at the same time this very profound so these are the then we call these quantity as the force constant of the fluctuation so you immediately see that this is the quantity which must be positive so that if there is a cost to free energy then if in as in phase transition or chemical reactions if there is a barrier and then there is another state here then to small we say to small fluctuations this is stable but your large fluctuations is goes over there when it reaches there these derivative becomes negative now so either it has to once it reaches there it has to come back there or come there so the equilibrium between the two such states characterized by minimum is determined by the difference in this but dynamics is profoundly dependent by the oscillations here and the curvature there okay now we do not want to talk of dynamics instead we want to talk about this quantity that what is in in so this is the chapter you can read where talked about the fluctuations so basic idea is that that what are these these these fluctuations are the most important quantity because this this is the determines the response the second derivative determines the response of the system to fluctuation how that is the called the rest linear response or response functions and these response functions are the most important properties of a system like when we brought the rock from the moon other than the density the first thing they calculated is the specific heat actually whenever you go to many museums they'll write down the specific heat of that below and the conductivity those properties conductivity specific heat are the response functions why because if you so now as I am telling you from the morning that these are very important if I change if I want to change temperature by delta t then I have to give a amount of heat delta q and so this is the relation cp if you bring it here then delta q by delta t is the cp so specifically is the amount of heat needed to change the temperature by 1 degree that's what you have been started in the in 8th rate at least we started in 8th rate compressibility now I bring here dvdp then is the compressibility that mean the unit pressure the pressure needed to change volume everything by unit and this is the magnetic susceptibility chi it is connected to the polarization of the magnetization created in the system by applying this amount of external field so every case we are applying an external perturbation here we are giving an amount of heat here we are giving an amount of pressure and here we are giving an external magnetic field on the left hand side we are having the response of the system and then these constant coefficients are the one which gives the response the magnitude of the response near a phase transition these response functions all diverge then a very small amount of perturbation create a huge response specifically it goes to infinity remember the lambda curve compressibility goes to zero gas liquid transition you can compress in it so then and these also diverges so stability condition of a system both mechanical this gives you the mechanical stability and these you give the thermodynamic stability both the stability are connected with these these quantities so whenever we talk of a system is stable and non-stable there is a set of stability conditions which is discussed in my book in a little later I will hope to get into that so I hope I have impressed sufficient amount on you to tell how the importance of these response functions they are the most important constitutive properties of the system most important constitutive properties of the system so and the ones whenever any matter is new things are created these are the first properties that one measures to characterize the system okay now so my next comment and very important comment to is that these are the quantities these response functions in addition also and these are most fundamental relation one of the things in my book first time I have the chapter 6 I had fluctuations and I said realization of the promises later my students said they noticed that is bit too much but the whole statistical mechanics is quite a formidable structure as you have seen you have to go quite a bit before you start getting the results which is somewhat different from quantum mechanics because you start with starting equation which is also a postulate and then you start getting results which are connected to spectroscopy rather quickly not in statistical mechanics here you will get a huge amount of results but you have to plow through certain amount of things you have to understand systematically how just going to partition function is itself has this this process and but then at the end of the day much of these are for example if you are going to do soft matter you are going to do phase transition you are going to do polymer liquid crystals everything is nothing but statistical mechanics so you are going to put this extra the nucleation everything you are going to put this but at the end of the day you are starting phenomena see I have again again telling one thing in chemistry the way we do quantum we don't study phenomena rarely we study phenomena we study numbers which are then connected to spectroscopy so there is a huge difference the way these two disciplines work you go to a quantum chemistry conference here at least India they hardly talk of they talk of formalisms they talk of second decimal place sometimes but they don't talk of any phenomena so their main delight is the publication in jackson and come on today okay now so the so the important thing of these quantities here my point I'm going to make most important point are essentially the second derivatives of free energy specifically to the respect to temperature this one is with respect to density on number or volume and susceptibility is with respect to these external field so these quantity density temperature mediation sorry these are external external control parameter we'll introduce a term called order parameter little later okay so to summarize this part that these important things specific it compressibility these things are the second derivatives of free energy first derivative is zero and you can easily see why because if I give a small amount of heat or small change I put a little bit of pressure then since it is a minimum how much it is going to displace is determined by this quantity and then this is given by this which is a spring constant is a harmonic surface it is spring constant these are extremely important because these trivial apparently trivial things are basis of theory of landau's theory of estimation is a wonderful theory that we'll do after this we'll do monatomic gas then we'll do diatomic then we'll jump a little bit we'll do both Einstein later we'll go to mayors theory interacting system then we go to landau theory so I'll do a little bit back and forth kind of thing I'll not follow the textbook completely now when you write a textbook you are kind of constrained by the kind of established by Macquarie or all other people so now okay now so I'm going to now do the next part so these quantity is a very interesting quantity now how do I get that okay this is the another very important response that if I study this thing even at equilibrium even in the absence of an external perturbation is the most important thing the particles are moving this is a very important language which our ego Kubo introduced called the natural motion of the system the system is undergoing continuous the thermal motion that thermal motion gives you diffusion dynamics that gives you resistivity that also give you specific it now I'm making this far reaching observation that these fluctuations contain the information of specific heat and thermal compressibility so natural motion of the system determines and I am telling you I cannot cannot overemphasize it is so important here my student has done these fluctuations in a total energy by simulation and volume and you can see this content as I was telling in the morning they continuously fluctuate they continuously fluctuate they are just natural system remember castellan gave a wonderful example of castellan said okay I now and I have put some colored liquid here which will now go into here and say this is the up to this so same level here they are your meniscus but I make this pipe is very narrow so this meniscus is visible in a microscope so now I look at it through a microscope I'm a wonderful artist as you can figure out so now this height I call this height h and now I plot that fun age as a function of time I'll find that is continuously oscillating without anything it's an equilibrium with the atmosphere so the reason is that there is a natural motion of the system you know the way that is the nature's way or the system's way to interact with the external pressure okay everything is that equilibrium so I am in completely equilibrium but my system is undergoing these fluctuations it is very very important to realize that this is a natural fluctuation okay so equilibrium factor will define average values originate from thermal motion of atoms and molecules stretched in this from my book stress them apart is the profound result that the response function that I am discussed here in three things are given exactly by mean square fluctuations of respective conjugate thermo and properties so I'm going to now tell you what is the specific heat how do we calculate specific heat and what is the microscopic definition and microscopic minimum meaning of the specific heat okay and so this is the way we remember specific heat okay so I do the DDT I go to this DDT I do I bring one E so it become a square another term comes from here but Q is again sum over e to the bar minus e by kb kb t so that brings it so Q right so I take a derivative it become 1 over Q square it become 1 over Q square because it's in the denominator and then I take the derivative it brings a EI out and there is one EI before here so same thing EI by kb t very so this become a square now this square but it has Q denominator so I put the Q inside and complete this square so that thing is just average energy square this quantity on the other hand is this E square kb t square and by it is it's kb t square both the two places and then 1 over Q and so this quantity is nothing but E square okay so I have E square minus average E square exactly so specific heat is then this quantity so that's why the relation that E square minus so this is specific heat CV 1 over kb t square in both the two cases I bring it upstairs so I get kb t square CV and this square is this quantity on the left hand side so specific heat is nothing but mean square fluctuation of energy this very simple thing that's what I in my book I had the original title that realization of promises this is really such a wonderful result which nobody anticipated that that specific heat is nothing but mean square energy fluctuation is a I as I said I cannot over emphasis the beauty and the importance of this relation okay now I that I did a specific at constant volume now I want to do specific heat at constant pressure specific at constant pressure will come from a our NPT ensemble and h then it become E plus PV we discussed in the morning and then you can exactly play the same game and you find out that specific heat at constant a is again mean square mean square fluctuation in the enthalpy okay that is CP CP and CV can be quite different experimentally we work with CP but CV is the one theoreticians work with that reason is that the other one much in canonical ensemble is easier and that's what we do all the time canonical ensemble okay now I go into compressibility again the same thing that I go to the NPT ensemble and I again do the V square delta V and you know dvdp here dvdp I do here by P and P here brings out of V square so I get V square mind and delta V square which is the mean square fluctuation then dvdp is the mean square fluctuation in volume and this is my compressibility so I get the relation is that the isothermal compressibility means nothing but sigma V square or here is the well done relation important thing is that isothermal compressibility is giving by mean square volume fluctuation so that's why this was given here these mean square energy fluctuation these mean square volume fluctuation these are real simulations of I believe of water there is reason to talk of water and I will talk about water in the context in a little bit in a greater detail so so compressibility we have done specifically we have done we have not done I so there is an exercise that you can easily do do this you have to do in the Grand Canonical Grand Canonical you have to consider you can do exactly same game you play same game you play you know but in the Grand Canonical remember that we are screwing it up little bit having the same notation but Grand Canonical you do you can do the number fluctuation right and now you can write the compressibility isomer compressive as a derivative with see it is dv then you write dvdp and replace v by density n by v and say I want the number fluctuation not the volume to fluctuate then you will get d d a d and that means I have a here in density I have n instead of volume and if this will be if you work it out you will be able to get this result the isomer compressibility is the the final value is the same you can calculate in the Grand Canonical you can calculate as the work ensemble two different things two different way we calculate that if we want to calculate in Canonical ensemble then I just do the volume fluctuation sorry if I do NPT ensemble I do the volume fluctuation because you know Canonical ensemble volume is fixed doesn't fluctuate but in isothermal isobaric NPT ensemble volume fluctuates from that fluctuation I can get the mean square fluctuation and that gives the compressibility but if I consider that as I told you we discussed this is difficult to do in a computer simulation the end that's the unbend Gibbs ensemble and that's I bought that I I'm not going to go into because I'm not very clear myself about it so the one of the questions that was raised why different ensembles have the same result okay the reason is the following let me see if I have the graph here the reason is the following that now let us see the relative fluctuation so sigma e square this is the width okay and this also a question that was asked we'll come to that answer both the two questions so remember when we do we always talk we need to talk of the relative value why you have to consider relative value that because you cannot compare hundred thousand and you cannot compare thousand with ten thousand say we want to describe the distribution of salary in a concern then what you have to do you have to find out the maximum salary now in concern to concern the maximum salary is changing if you want to start the dispersion you should better scale by that make that equal to one and then see how the dispersion goes here also so this is the relative fluctuation that we need to look into and relative fluctuation then sigma e square sigma e square is CV kpt square so sigma e is kpt square by square root I divide by then the energy these scales as n because this average energy there's an extensive property these scales as n to the power half the specific it is also an extensive property so we have root over n by n so it scales as one over root n that's true everywhere so the scaling of fluctuations so now if I want to compare the results of canonical and canonical or canonical an isothermal isobaric ensemble then the results will be the same when the fluctuations are small so the fluctuations are these things that is moving around here when n goes to infinity these fluctuations relative fluctuations become very very small that goes to zero the fluctuations go to zero as one over root n this is the reason why whatever ensemble you study you get the same result this is also intimately related intimately related with the stability conditions that we will we will discuss later


Hey guys, how you doing? This is rich from rich to be live. We have a pre-market banger right now TT00 on the Nasdaq t2 biosystems. It is up a hundred and fifty three percent pre-market at 99 cents and this one hurts Oh, it hurts because Everyone was saying to me rich look at TT00 yesterday if so many people were telling me and Bam, there it is. They just got huge news. Let me get into this news for you guys one second I'm gonna break down this news Right here Here's the news guys that is making it absolutely explode right here t2 biosystems announces a worldwide licensing agreement of COVID-19 novel coronavirus assays from Hackensack Meridian Health Center for Discovery and Innovation t2 biosystems ink TT00 a leader in the rapid detection of sepsis-causing pathogens today announced that it has entered into a worldwide licensing agreement for the rapid COVID-19 novel Coronavirus test developed by the Center of Discovery and Innovation at Hackensack Meridian Health New Jersey's largest and most comprehensive Health Network the licensed coronavirus assay has been used by healthcare professionals within the Hackensack Meridian Meridian Health Network under the US Food and Drug Administration's emergency use authorization guidance to test and treat patients suspected of having coronavirus huge news and This could be a game changer. The stock is moving pre-market. This agreement Combines our FDA cleared t2dx platform with our joint scientific expertise To benefit patients at risk for both primary coronavirus infections as well as associated secondary infections that may lead to sepsis Now, I'm just gonna quickly look at their share structure I think that's extremely important because these guys are flying TT00 on the NASDAQ and then if we go to security details So a hundred million shares issued upstanding for this NASDAQ stock, which is at 38 cents yesterday and as of today is at 96 cents and up a hundred and 46% pre-market Now I'm not saying you should chase it put on your watches put on your radar But would not be surprised to see them go higher. Stay tuned. This is your boy rich and wish to be live You're not winning you're not watching we bring in the winners and we bring them to you first as we're doing again yet today Let me know if you like this video Let me know if you like this pick smash the like button comment down below your more rich and wish to be live and I'm all peace


See if anybody's out here on this Saturday night. Hello, Raphael awesome sauce. Hey, Sarge Burch, that's what he's saying. I gotta quit reading this back to you guys because you guys can read it Everybody's in bed. I figured I'd spend time with my my youtube family and Having a beverage notice the hands covering up everything Very rainy wet day today here in West Virginia. I did do a little toy hunting at my local Walmart If y'all saw my video earlier where it looks like the stock people decided to stomp on them things There's river run the guy that keeps calling me an old man Yeah Ninja bill hello K. There's toy box. What's going on? I'm doing this on my phone again. So the screen should be a lot clearer So I'm probably gonna read the comments here on my computer But cause it's kind of a pain the ass to read them on the screen I Did just upload a brand new video I took part in a challenge that was the mystery challenge a pick a random mystery Figure to review it took me two weeks to get one, but I think I Think you guys will be shocked and maybe Surprised with this video Yeah, I saw your comment ninja bill. Thank you very much. I got it dirt cheap, too I was really shocked. It's one of those where you see something on eBay. You just throw in a price And you're like if I get it I get it whatever Yeah, nobody spoil it don't put anything in the comments. It's a it's a surprise especially people that know me I She went to a party today There was a like a kid's party Dylan was invited. So I actually went in my complete Patriot Prime Gear it was kind of funny. What's that? Well, let me tell you what I do now Hey, Rudy that it was it was one. I was I've always wanted no idea why I waited 35 years to get it You might score anything good today Saturday's usually the good hunting day. Yes, kiss Katie. That is Root beer real quick. I ran out Hello, Ayanna Connors Ayonikus I said it right the very first time now.  There's Tadimus Prime. I try I wanted to send everybody quick messages Hey, I'm getting ready to get online, but I'm not sure how long we'll do this I've just really come to enjoy this live stuff There is Optimus Wilbur, buddy. Everybody seems to be really enjoying your sit-wrap Problem with doing this on the phone. I've got all my little Facebook messages popping up blocking my feed I'm such a popular guy. I really really enjoyed talking to Will. He was a whoo That's what's been cool. Like most of you guys I've talked with I feel like I've known you forever Well, awesome sauce. I've known him since he was this big He was the one I was really hoping would win my He was the one I was hoping would win my road buster because it would cost me nothing in shipping He lives like four blocks away from me I came so close to buying one of those deluxes today, but like I've said I I kind of put myself on a buying hold right now until after TF con We have the family money and we have my joint transformer money So I try to keep the transformers separate from the family family funds Yeah, and TC contacted me last night He contacted me via Instagram because I've done those drawings before Where the person won and I never heard from him again He is skyfire. He will always be skyfire. Just like that robot tire Kicking in already just like that robot triceratops will always be slag Trying to see if I maybe I mean tomorrow's mother's day and we'll try to knock out a g1 review I've got got them picked out. I know which ones I'm going to do. I tested them And they do work. So I'm looking forward to getting these guys in front of the camera I'm just trying to figure out how much running space they need to actually transform Hey adamantium. I was hoping you'd catch it. Are you on facebook? That's the only one I had as a kid too Of course mine you may find this very surprising Mine have been toy hacks upgraded the firebird here and is I love the extra added details, but we'll go in and do more of those when I do the actual review Okay, I was thinking I lose track of Individual names and your channel names. So please forgive me on that I I on a cuss Ah, it's like a pirate who likes to go on a cursing binge. I on a cuss I dig it. I don't do that Tauntaun always does those early reviews I just can't stand watching them because it's like listening to a Robot talk.  Yes Duh Wonder why I have a hard time remembering somebody's name Jason Why that Okay, I got you now Hey, I'm old I'm old I blame my problem with names from the military. I mean so many years where I'm just uh You know, everybody's got their name right here deluxe Baldwin is in the house deluxe He is the guy who we we're going to blame for all this all these interview shows all this live stuff all stem from Deluxe Baldwin Hell of a reviewer. He's got some great stuff. Check him out Deluxe I was rolling reading your facebook page earlier with the uh anybody got this figure for non-scupper edbay prices That reminds me when uh I'll put something up. I you know just flat out. I'm saying I want 25 dollars for this figure You know, I'll put 25 dollars cash Immediately. Oh, I've got 10 dollars in my paypal. Will you take that or trades like did I say trades 25 dollars, so You and Dylan going to do something for your wife tomorrow well I thought she'd went to bed for the night and um She actually we had all of her mother's day stuff set out She decided to get up so she's already seen all of her presence. So it will probably go Breakfast or lunch but considering they both just went to bed and it's 10 o'clock midnight It'll probably be lunch Yes, they do And I always want to trade you some piece of crap Like yes, I've got a generation one jet fire. I'd like to sell for 300 dollars Oh, I'll trade you a Batman pop for it. It's funny. I'm trying to read. I got my chat up here get my chat on my screens Of course, I'm delayed on youtube. It's funny Thank you many figure now quit giving away what the figure was The whole the whole they came message retracted good Not to mention shipping anymore. This stuff doesn't ship cheap I think the smallest thing you could ship for still around seven bucks Oh, no problem. I still need to find one of those myself, but Like I said, I put myself on hold Especially toy hacks toy hacks that has that great Kit for it because I'm all about that toy hacks Yeah And I always I enjoy usps I mean, I like their tracking and I have never had an issue with Anything being shipped to anybody. I'm trying to think what else I got in the pipe for you guys Oh, yeah, avengers endgame was awesome. I'm psyched up. I'm ready for the new spider-man movie now Toy hacks has a kit for siege star screen that actually gives him a fin I guess the figure itself is kind of it doesn't really have a fin on top. So it has a tail fin now Are you gonna get top spin and twin twist? I already have top spin and twin twist Both generation one and power of the primes Not yet. There is not a toy hack set for siege prowl yet. He needs one actually saw him in package today You should do another giveaway wink wink Awesome sauce. You've never actually seen this, have you? I can't remember. I can't remember if you've been to the house or not He only lives a couple blocks away from me.  Yeah, his toys were in walmart today. I was trying to talk dillon into buying one I just hope we see more godzilla than the last godzilla movie I think I said this in my last Live show is the last godzilla movie It was all about the bug monsters that godzilla didn't show up until the end He pulled a megatron from the first transformer movie like kong skull island. I like I really enjoyed that movie I've watched it like three or four times I'm really excited to see a geedra in it I when I was growing up tbs always had monster vision on saturdays remember on tnt you always had A godzilla movie plays either godzilla or beast master was always a guaranteed movie on saturdays Will you ever do a review on a studio series figure? If I ever get if I ever get one. I do not own a studio series figure. I'm just not a huge fan of the beavers Characters granted. I really really want that optimus prime They are repainting prowl into red alert and barricade and I'm really really looking forward to barricade Thanks adam adam. He uh It was one of those where I saw it. It was like a five dollar bid I just at 10. I'll never see it boom where it was Smoke screen. Yeah, he's coming out of smoke screen. I've got that one pre-ordered I haven't heard anything about the seacons other than people talking here.  I can't talk the beer is good pretender monsters I can still vaguely remember the monster vision intro. It had like all the different monsters on the screen and everything It was so cool I miss old tv like that No, everybody spoiled it Like friggin avengers end game It was a risky review because I didn't even take a look at the figure. I opened him up out of the box and I actually Cut him out of the package and pulled him right out on camera Okay, cool. Cool. I need to really google that. I haven't paid that much attention to it I would sell all my movie stuff and keep Every review I've seen has been fantastic I just can't well.  Um, what I was referring to is everybody keeps Mentioning the name of the figure I did for my mystery review.  That's it. What I did that one review on is all the ones I have I haven't really Dived into it more because I bought those for dillon But now he doesn't really care for him and I just know if I get into collecting those two And I have him on display. He's gonna walk in go. Hey, those are mine and There we go I can foresee with siege wave two and three probably branching out into the other lines Because I said this before my biggest issue I mean, it's great that we get new reimagining of these figures, but my biggest issue with all these Lines coming out. They just keep giving us the same characters. You get 84 to 86 Over and over and over again granted titans are lost you are we back?  I've got the the lux one from the universe line and the combiner wars Combiner wars But I love cyclones. Cyclones is awesome.  Actually, I'm on US sailors, uh, I'm doing this on my phone right now burning up data That's why I'm not gonna be on here too long was 1158 Maybe 1210 a siege Bruticus Bruticus was one of the better combiner wars Bruticus was great Uh, a bomb in this damn near perfect in my opinion Superior on defense or is okay. We won't talk about menisor Menisor is disappointing. It's very disappointing. One of my favorite my favorite g1 combiner and they screwed him up I'm so tired of bumblebee figures But you know, we're going to get one Bumblebee two any predictions I'm Praying they bring megatron. I want megatron in the movie for a decent amount of time I want him portrayed right I can't believe I forgot that didn't realize Jason Sullivan's adamantium. Hello amber moody It was it was A lot of you kids in my class was nicknamed after transformers remember that poor kid I named thundercracker There was a reason I agree. I agree an origin of Optimus Prime or megatron. There's larkin. What's up, Joel? What is like noon in Hawaii right now? Six hours behind. Oh, that sounds good. I had Barbecue sliders and a kid's 30 year old birthday party this afternoon New figures. I'd like to see man Maybe some of the armada fit. I mean armada had some decent toys I mean, there was some sturdy ones a lot of them look like play school figures, but I like some of the decepticons Combiner wars did a pretty good attempt at making a armada megatron I'd like to see like a reboot of him or maybe Uh, what was his name the tank demolisher? Armand prime would be cool. Is that some uh, who's Armand? Who's Armand? Yes The gimmick killed that character for me. He was cool. But once y'all hooked him up He was stuck. He couldn't move him. He couldn't pose him. I sold mine a long time ago I have the little deluxe version that came with the leader one mini con jet gun. I still got him I got rid of so many figures over the years I'm still begging and praying. I want Scorponok and I want a proper thundering And let's do the pretenders, right? They tried with power of the prines. I know they can do them right Or double dealer. Yep. I'm hoping so I always love Scorponok was so awesome in Marvel comics I have saw with that red wing figure don't know if I'm really up for that one or not I always like Scorponok and Marvel because well, he was never portrayed as a city He was the scorpion and he was the robot And I like how they drew all the transformers with the same size I mean Scorponok went toe to toe with shockwave and toe to toe with power master prime Hell, he went toe to toe with fortress maximus. I think the optimus prime was the same size as the fortress maximus I just immediately pictured that deluxe I lucked out man.  I might do that after I get off here I saw all the all you guys with your live shows all While I'm at work and somebody's in the office or when I'm on the on the road Yes, scourge scourge would be awesome Yeah, I've got run about And run them up. They are over here waiting in the wings to be reviewed These are going to be my next g1 reviews And yes, I have their weapons too I actually just transformed them into a test run on the desk here to see if they still worked He's a good guy. I really enjoyed talking to him and I I felt like I was meeting the president or something when I was Talking to Graham because you know, he's the guy I watched constantly for generation one reviews Funny story. I'll tell you guys now I'm going to mention the review too This guy right here I remember I was in 4h And my mom went and bought a gift for a 4h gift 4h gift exchange for christmas And bought this guy and when she brought him home for me to wrap And I was like, oh, I wanted to see you know, I was a big transformer collector And fortunately mom didn't watch my videos and this was 1986 the The number you drew somehow I rigged the drawing so I got this guy I don't know how that happened, but it's just it just dawned on me But I only had the black guy. I never saw I never saw the white one This one was actually He was the second one I got because the first one I got was broke. Guy didn't mention it Actually gotten a lot.  He's done You don't see that from the front anybody else game Funny transformer stories odd transformer stories another one I'm not sure I've never mentioned this before maybe in the review of the figure But there was one time I went to my kroger grocery store This is a couple summers ago and I mean I got jacked up Jeep So I'm in the parking lot pulling out and this kid is running up to me.  I didn't have the weapons or anything But come to find out later his dad went to school with me And I don't know why he just happened to have this toy With him at the time But he ran right up to me and handed me a generation one squawk talk didn't have the figure of my collection But I do now him complete. So that was one of those very odd odd transformer stories Ninja bill. That's how I made my jet fire. He is frankenstein from about three others three or four others There's a big flea market happening here next weekend. I'm hoping to score a few things They usually take about amber said I did a lost track. Oh, yeah big flea market coming Usually I take about 60 bucks out of the account see what I can find I like running into the Transformer or toy experts at the flea market.  I reviewed him too Do I like bayverse? I like barricade. That's awesome Do I have the jump starters? Yep I sure do Awesome sentinel hook me up on uh, I have an email address linked to my patriot prime page Do I have chain call? No, I do not I uh I don't have many auto. I only have three autobot pretenders I just I love the decepticon so much more Everyone has the jump starters, but finding a pair that work actually works Seeds leader class optimus prime. That's the one with the wings, right the cybertron one I've got the original up there looking sharp I don't think I've transformed that guy Since I got him it only lacked by three micro masters from the autobots air patrol. I'm missing the blue stealth jet The flying wing and I'm missing the helicopter Punch counter punch is a great figure I found you there's a third transformation mode to him I do not have g2 laser optimus prime, but I got rid scourge They do have shockwave as a voyager figure in siege night racer. I used to that was the train, right? I had so many When I got really into collecting I guess in 2001 I was buying anything and everything and then I had that mighty Transformers purge that every down in that just happens and I lost so much So many of my figures, but that's when I went full g1. So I've got a lot of g1 now and Botcon exclusive. Okay. I'm not familiar with that. I'm gonna have to google him All right ret or ak awesome sauce. You have a good night, buddy Generation one you are correct You are correct him silver streak And smoke screen are the only autobot cars I'm lacking from that year Hey bibs is I got three I need to actually prepare for these more and actually have stuff set up to talk about I can talk about the Battle chargers here and I guess maybe people seen this now, but I'm not gonna spoiler review or spoiler alert I love this thing.  I love it. It's awesome I've been playing with this thing for about an hour. It is it is Now I might be tempted to start getting these. He is the out of all everything you see here I only have two go-bots This this one right here This was my very first transforming toy. I remember my grandfather bought him Uh bought him for me. I remember holding him up And loco the train and this guy won just because I mean Come on.  So I got found this guy at a comic shop a few years back visiting my brother in ohio Had to get him just because It's his fault I saw a commemorative silver silver streak He blew streak in g1 silver streak now But I saw a commemorative on ebay going real cheap, but I watched it and missed it Go-bots had so much diecast. I missed it in the review, but Man his his lower legs are all all diecast metal It just I had no idea. They were so ratchety Of course, this is also the first super go-bot. I've ever held my hands All m's awesome. I watch him all the time. M. M's a great guy Mother's day is tomorrow. Actually, it's today here in west virginia mother's day is now And happy mother's day to you mothers in my chat What social media do I have I have instagram facebook and youtube there's links to all that on my main Patriot prime page Oh, yeah, and I have a store now Got any beast wars figures beside the prime bat and megatron alligator. I've got all the megatrons uh The very first optimus prime the black gorilla And that's it.  Thanks gen one I do not I've got the RID scourge I really I need to get a new sword for him the red laser sword Years ago when I first got him I bought scourge. I think from amazon.com had him displayed He's sitting on the kitchen table and one of my cats gets up on the kitchen table And you know how cats will get on something chewed He chewed on the damn tip of the sword And so I got these little cat bite marks and the tip of my damn sword I do not I do not GI joe was an an awesome cartoon and action figure line that Alas with today's society will probably never see the light of day again My wife actually likes pops Gen one red alert chris, right? I think because she added me she put at patriot prime What's my favorite star screen figure? I only got a couple. I hate to admit that. I'm not a big star screen guy. I love the generations line Let me show you mine. I can't remember when I did that But I got some upgrade kit for him. So he's got his coronation look. He's got the Proper looking no rays. He's got his crown and cape So you had to do a little bit of work to him to put these wings on Excuse me But that's one of my favorite star screens right there Deluxe, where did this come from? I mean this was back before I was facebook and all that I found this I forget where I found this but I love this thing. I've actually got all these seekers No razor flimsy But yeah, these are really cool. See what else I can show you guys. I really don't have a lot of Oddball stuff I think you've all seen my review on this. This is one of my favorites from the very first and only convention I've ever went to shard of con 2013 That is their exclusive land shark figure. They only made 75 of them I've never transformed him For a figure of you know chipping the paint and custom work He looks good on the shelf. I came there with these box. He's got a generation one style box Do not have black zarak. I've got scorpionock. Well, there's my My city bots are all over there on that table Fortress maximus is blocking a lot of them What year was what shard of con 2013 out of curiosity, you don't even see those guys on ebay I remember when I was at shard of con this guy was in line ahead of us He grabbed two of them and he was out on his cell phone putting a damn thing on ebay immediately Thanks amber There's a lot of nerd knowledge in our group and we've become a pretty tight-knit group too. I've been really amazed How tight our youtube family for lack of a bare term has become. I mean, I feel like I've known a lot of you guys for years Yes scalpers they rake right up here with spoilers of marvel movies by psycho I kind of dig it But yet I also can see where people can turn that a lot of different ways AVS I use AVS for my programs It's an old program, but I've gotten really used to it I have so much nerdy Thanks joker I try to have fun with it it um Like like a lot of you guys it was a hobby that I hid from the public eye for so long And then just recently there's something I think michael bay for is when it came just bursting out like the thing You know, I wasn't too ashamed to admit that I collect these and this here when people come over to my house I'm like, hey, you want to see my man cave and you know, they're always Shocking all when they walk in here Of course the way I look at it this right here is no different than a room full of sportsmobility Sports memorabilia. How many of these have I had? We all came out of the toy closet I don't know a lot of people would consider me not a real collector because my figures are out of the box How dare I?  I can't rap Uh, I really appreciate it. It's comments like that that keep me doing what I'm doing And I think all of us YouTubers, you know, we feel the same way and my facebook message is blowing up I belong to a mortal combat group too and they're all just apparently they found something tonight Deluxe while you're on here. I have never asked What is the deal with the laptop and the the fireplace? In the background of your video. It's soothing Hi, I'm deluxe Baldwin and we're gonna sit beside the fire and discuss this robot. It's very true It's very although, you know, I was watching your video the other day and for some reason That's what drew my attention. Like why am I watching this fire? I tell you there's some there's some guys background I'm spending more time watching looking at their background and seeing what all they have rather than watching the video I do watch chris for chris freely Watch out for rudy and those warm lovely cabins man. He's after your women That'll never get old rudy Kato right there that reminds me. I did a octa punch video And the music I didn't do my patriot prime music I did the theme from the octanauts and it's this guy comment I said you just freak me the shit out because I thought maybe I'd accidentally Netflix my son's octanauts show while I was watching your video Bob Ross the transformers. Oh my god. There you go deluxe. There's a gimmick. You're gonna have to work into that Hey, Jay. I'm watching your live stream I just got that facebook message. We'll talk talk talk on the message. Let me get you off my screen here 8 face 2000 You you do you do you have to be in the right mood?  I just get pissed like when I did Who did I just oh my bomb burst review? I tried to do a review on that the night before 13 takes I could not get it right and then the next night just like that So you got to be in the mindset you got to be Not doing it as a job because you don't get money doing this You have to enjoy what you're feeling and it definitely shows in your work And I love this. I love talking to you guys about these figures And it's a hoot. I enjoy this.   I can't do live I'd love to do like a sit-rep live, but all my stuff has to be pre-recorded You don't have a g1 optimus prime tf fan geek Kato, I've been monetized since January And with all the vids I put up, I think I'm almost at 80 dollars right now I'm trying to catch up on my reading here Hey, buddy, 1230 is late for me too I try to get I won't get to bed decent because with the the five-year-old he don't care if you want to sleep in Not yet. I want I'd like to get some of the japan exclusives Yeah, the only way you're gonna get paid good for youtube is you need to start a political channel You got you just raking all those views Well, that's 80 dollars going to tf con. That's a tf con ticket That's my plan because once you hit 100, that's when you get paid out And my first hundred is what i'm going to use for my tf con ticket. So I just think it's a nice Symbolism there that i'm using money that I earned Talking to you folks around transformers to buy my tf con ticket. So I didn't crimson raptor. I didn't buy any of them I was there with Dylan We was buying mother's day stuff and I didn't feel like throwing an extra 60 dollars worth of bots in the cart Well guys, it is 1230 here. This was just a very impromptu chat Yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing you deluxe. I'm looking forward to seeing a lot of people I want to thank everybody for hopping on spending some time with me. We're at 48 minutes. I was only expecting to do about 30 I'm going to maybe try to start doing these on saturday nights Maybe line up some stuff so we can talk about and just we'll make this a thing. So, uh If you like what you see don't forget to like don't forget to subscribe. This is patriot pride signing out Good night guys