Hello, beautiful people. My name is Angela and I'm from British Columbia, Canada. You're watching Truck of Josh and the Doodle Music. I have a farmer Brit here in the kitchen, sporting her overalls. She's got to go to work right away and I've got to get a bunch more work done here. How'd you like your eggs? They're wonderful. Perfectly cooked. Usually I burn or ruin the first couple of eggs that I do. They're not pretty good. How about you? How'd you like your breakfast? Chef Dad in the house. No? Hello Chevy. Did you know you're an upside down Chevy? Are you walking on the wolf right now? What you doing on the wolf? On the wolf. That's better. That's better. See? It was scary wasn't it? Super scary. So the house is a mess. We are taking this to the shop for storage. I've got to fold some laundry there. There's a lot to do. We're continuing the work from yesterday. Trying to move more stuff from here into the shop for storage. I don't want it to get too full there. I don't want it to be crowded and cramped and I want it to look good and to have like space to move around and I got to do the dishes too. Brits at work and I'm here all by myself and there's so much to do. But I can do it. I've got to do the dishes so that those are done by the time she gets home because I told her I'd do them. Fold some laundry. I've got to shave this. I've got to shave this to shower. And all that laundry. That's her laundry. I don't know what to worry about. Excuse me. And then after that then we'll take more stuff from the carport to the shop and then I've got to wash the semi. Get it ready for tomorrow because we've got to go back trucking tomorrow and we have to start with a clean truck. We can gather enough dirt tomorrow for tomorrow. I don't want to start with yesterday's dirt. Frank, you dead? Why are your legs like that?  Are you trying to be like wiener? What are you doing? Where are your legs?  You okay buddy? Are you a turtle? He's fine. He's just really comfy. Wiener, how you doing buddy? How you doing? You surviving without your mother here? It was barely his. It's very difficult. I've had many episodes of stress and anxieties. She should be home soon, yeah? She'll be home later. It's nice to meet you. Don't shake my hand. We are not friends. No? You're not friends? Okay, we can be friends for now. Thank you. I've got to make a list. What should I do first? I'm going to get those out of the way. And shave. Shave. And shower. But then I'm going to get all dirty again while I'm moving stuff out to the shop. But I want to shave because I've been putting this off for way too long. Look how long my hair is right now. See that? It's supposed to be bald. Okay, I'll put away the clean dishes. We'll wash the dirty ones. Shave. It will wait until later to shower. I just don't, I like showering right after I shave my head and my beard. Cause hair gets all over me, right? And I get all itchy. I'm going to have to shower twice today. Then I'm going to shower again later. This is so overwhelming. I'll be fine. I can handle this. I can handle this. I'm a grown man. You don't have a dishwasher, right? This is the dishwasher. Well, sometimes. Sometimes. I try. Where does this one go? This one goes up here, right? I don't know where everything goes. How am I supposed to keep up with this? I have lots of other things to remember, right? What's this? That's a rubber straw. I forgot we had these things. It holds me fun to whip people with. Oh, do we put cups upside down? Or do we not? I don't know. Cut the right side up. I always thought that we put cups upside down. So that dust doesn't get in them, right? Well, they're sitting in there, but then how is dust going to get in there? If there's dust in there, isn't that something wrong? Our advanced in this household, we use cutlery. I know. Shocking. Here's a tub uke. Or a dish rag, or whatever you call this thingy. I'm just going to put this up here for now. Fill this sink up with fresh water. We're going to get her done like a man. Manly dishes. Manly dish washing going on here. So in other words, they're probably going to have to be washed again. But we're going to wash them! Okay, we'll plug this up there. Okay, we'll just use some of this stuff. Dawn! The quicker picker-upper. That's not Dawn at all, is it? That's Swiffer. Put some of that in there. Is that too much? What do I know? I don't care. Hot water! Bubble me up, buddy. Come on. Fill me the bubbles. Why is it not getting hot? Ow! It's hot. Yep, that's hot. Turn that down. Here you go. Ah, that's nice. The pans are cold. That's really nice. Wonderful. In the meantime, while we're doing those other dishes, we're going to soak this pan. Put a little bit of that stuff in there. Soak this pan a little bit. There you go. I made eggs this morning. Did you see? Did you see? I did that. I made eggs. It actually turned out pretty good, to be honest. I was actually pretty proud of myself. A lot of you, Dawn. I don't know what it is. Whenever I try to do eggs over easy, the first two, I always botch. Or I always, like, mess them up. But this time, I got them right on the first try. That's right. Is that enough water? I think it's enough water. All right, here we go. Here we go. Wash some dishes. Washing dishes. On the vlog, for evidence. Trevor Josh washed the dishes. Anybody tries to claim that I didn't? It's on YouTube. I'm not guaranteeing no one's going to have to wash them again. But I did wash them. Oh, whoa! Water's attacking me. No violence in this house. I'll clean up my man mess here. A little bit. Boom! Done. One task is done. Let's celebrate. Oh, no, you're all the way at the back, my pretty. Oh, duals. Near beer. It's a de-alcoholized beer. It's a good mid-day beer. Yes. And I can continue to do all my tasks all day. Yup. All right. What's next? Let's do this. I'm sorry, Diesel. Did I scare you when I threw my hat? Don't worry. It's all good. It's all good. Thanks for checking. There's a door there, if you're wondering. Okay. Shaving. What I use, if you're interested, because I'm assuming you just want to know, what does it use? I wonder. I can't wait. I use a bunch. This is for my beard. It's a Remington. This is for my head. It's a black one. And first I got to cut it short with that, right? And then I use a a T-Mio thingamajig like this to get it right down to the skin. It's a very complicated process. Okay. First of all, we got to get this out of here. And what I do is I just cut my hair and my beard right here in the bathroom, and it just all falls to the floor. I'm a barber. Barber Josh. What should I do first? My head? Here we go. Don't try this at home, kids. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Ah, it's a stop. Beautiful. Say now we go like this. I always start with the top. Because it's, there's hardly any hair there anyway, so it makes you feel like you're getting stuff done really quick. And there you go. Perfect. Did I miss anything? I'm gonna have to break up the chainsaw. Okay, good, good. Should be good. My entire beard grows from this side to this side, so I go like whoop, back to cut it. Really weird. But it suits me because I'm a weird guy. Weird beard growth pattern. I don't know why I hold my hand here just in case to hold my head on in case my head falls off again. I don't know, it feels right. One more step. There you are. Okay. You guys are already looking at me. Hey, attention. Hey. Okay, I just do this over here. Whole head and it right down to the bone. Doesn't hurt at all. Looks really well. But you've got to cut it short first. Like I did because if you try to do this when it's still like longer like it was before this thing will hurt. Just about done. I gotta be careful when I do this section here that I don't get my eyebrows as well, you know. You don't want to shave your eyebrows. Gotta get it all along the behind the ears. And I always go over my head with my hand just to see if I can feel any pricklies and wherever I feel pricklies just follow with this thing. Nice, right? I like it. Wonderful. So fine hairs are the beard and all the clumps are the head hair.   I have a question for you. How do we do that? Do you know? Because I can clean this bathroom after I'm finished in here. Top to bottom. She's gonna come home later. I can cover my head and stuff so she doesn't know that I shaved. Even if I wasn't home. She'll come in here and the first thing she'll say is you got hair everywhere. You shaved, didn't you? Tell me I'm lying. So husbands, what's the secret? How do we get rid of the hair? I don't know how. I try my best. I can climb upside down on this ceiling and clean every single corner and crevice. She'll still find hair. How do you know? Toolbox here, air compressor, all my tools that were in the shed. I even molded the front yard and then I brought this here because I gotta do some work on this. I shouldn't do that. I'm gonna wash it too, clean it up. That's it right there by the bullsnot. Of course. All my extra stuff. These are some rims that I had on my... I had an 07 Honda Civic when I was younger and cooler. I had these coning rims on it. I have to show it to you another time. These are just old license plates. Got the snowblower here, chain saw. So I think it's all fitting in here pretty well. I got my quad. This is the quad I was telling you about before. It's a Polaris Predator 2005 I believe. It's got a pretty much a rebuilt engine that needs some work. The rims in the front are bent up. I bought it like that. The tires have leaks. The chain guard broke off here, so you have to be very careful that your shoelaces don't get caught in there. I could cause you a world of pain right away. This is the treadmill. I put it in here. I got to wash that cover yet. But I figured it didn't look right to have the motorcycle, the quad, and a treadmill. But I have nowhere else to put it, so I covered it up. That way it looks like I have something cool under there. I think we're officially fully moved in. The only thing that's missing is the W9. And that'll come hopefully in a week. Hopefully less than that. I'm getting antsy. I want my hands on it. But you know, you got to wait for the whole process to go through the way it's supposed to. You got to be patient. Right, Josh? Patience. That's what I tell Diesel and Chevy all the time. Patience. I'm not very good at it all the time. Especially when I'm waiting. Waiting and waiting. That'll be fine. Still lots of room in here. Still lots of room to work. It looks a little cluttered now. I can do a little bit to clean this area up here, like the hoses in there. Clean that up. The hose for the pressure washer. I just tucked it behind there for now. It looks really messy. I'll clean that. But there's still lots of room to work on the truck. I'm happy with it. I didn't have time to wash the truck. I got to head home right away. I'm going to walk. And Brick gets off at 5.30. So... No time to wash the truck. That's going to really bug me in the morning. Maybe I'll have time in the morning. Doubt it. Whatever. I'll wash it tomorrow after work then. Alright guys, moment of truth. How was the bathroom? All inspect. We're doing pretty good because she didn't come to me first. I saw a few. How's she bad? Better than usual. There you go. We're getting better. I shaved my head before and I was asking the husbands how they get rid of all the hair because it's impossible. The wives always know. And it's every single time I'm just finished cleaning the bathroom. Every single week. I told them. Look, did I miss anything? Can you see anything over there? Pretty good. Good. See Diesel, we did alright. Thanks for your help. Road for a scoot. Scooting a boot. How's it going back there, Britt? She makes fun of me all the time because I've got a bell. That was a pretty cool little trail we found here. This is in Deerfield. On the east side of Steinback. It's a newer neighborhood. There's a nice bike in trails here. It's comfortable. It's a nice cruiser. I didn't need anything fancy. I'm not a mountain biker. I don't need to be able to go up mountains. I live on the prairies. I just want to putt around. This reminds me a lot of camping in St. Malo. With all their trails, their bike trails and stuff. Our neighborhood doesn't have any fancy trails like this. Just saying. It would be a nice path to walk the dogs down a little far. Maybe if I start walking this year again by the end of summer I can make it this far. It's not that far. We want to build a sunroom on to the front of our house too. When we build, we'll absolutely build one right off the bat waiting to see if the town will give us the permit to build on to the front. It wouldn't be for a while. We have lots of plans and everyone's like you guys must have won the lottery. These are just big dreamers. I wish we could afford to do them all at once. That's not how life goes. Well, we go for a bike ride and now it's time to go for a walk, right? We got poop bags. Oh shoot! We're out of poop bags. I'll just get grocery bags. Hold on boys. Hold on. Can you sit? Good boys. Sweet. It's so nice that they paved this now. I remember running I got told you was yesterday or day before I had to truck and field here as a kid and his gravel if he slipped and fell. Running in diesel. Hey, hey buddy. Come here. And again if you if you slip and fall on this, I guess you get just as hurt. You just don't get gravel in your skin. But there's more traction on the pavement though. Whenever you'd start running here, you'd always sit here spinning in the gravel. I remember that. Why did you all go?  We went on a walk without you Frank. Makes you pretty tired. I was a good bike ride and good walk. Here we go. Chevy, was that fun or what? Was that fun? Had a pretty good weekend. We got a lot done. Had a lot of fun. Tomorrow we are back to work. Back to trucking. Thanks for watching today everybody. See you tomorrow from the truck.


You need to develop an open vulnerable dialogue for conversation. It's very very very important in all relationships if you don't communicate about a particular aspect of your relationship like How you feel your insecurities you're not Opening up to them about things that you're sad about things that you're happy about and you're not you know You're not communicating together like your adults one particular area of Difficulty comes in for a lot of people which is intimacy You know if you're not talking about Intimacy then how is the other person going to know how to improve that? How is how are you going to repair that without talking about it knowing what each other likes that goes for the same in every single aspect of a relationship? Particularly when it comes to autistic neurotypical relation


I think we have quite a fair amount of people in and it's half past two, so let's get started. So a very good afternoon to everyone and welcome to Asia Schools of Business webinar series. The day after tomorrow COVID-19, I am Rhoda Yap, the Chief Operating Officer of the Asia School of Business and the moderator for today's session, Latin the Curve, then what? This is the seventh session in the series and I'm delighted to have with me today two panelists, first Gilbert Konke, who's the Chief Risk Officer at Maybank, and Anela Munro, Professor of Economics at the Asia School of Business Master for Central Banking Program. So before we dive in, a few housekeeping rules that I would like to share. There is a Q&A box that is separate from the chat box where I will encourage you to put your questions in and keep an eye on that if there is a question that you specifically want answered or resonates with you, please upload it and at the end of the session, the panelist session, we will get to those questions time permitting. So with that, allow me to start our session with Gilbert. Gilbert, how have things been for Maybank since COVID-19? First, let me say thank you for inviting me to speak today. I think it's a real honor to have the opportunity to participate here. For Maybank, I have to say I think probably quite true with every financial institution globally, it's been quite an interesting time and that's the old Chinese proverb curse, if I can, we're going through what I would say is the tri-vector of adverse economic events. COVID, obviously having a significant impact on business continuity, as well as impacting on the financial system and then having to deal with, I call it a markets and turmoil, just as we did in 2008, 2009, and then compounding that with all kinds of other things, the oil price crisis. So it's been a very interesting time to say the least, been quite good in other ways. One thing that all things that come out of a crisis, teams normally pull together quite well and so I've been quite pleased by the response not only internal to Maybank but also into the broader financial industry, working with the governments across the region, in addressing what is arguably one of the most serious economic events that have hit us in, well, some would say in 100 years. Certainly the closest we would come to is probably the Asia financial crisis. So given that banking is one of the essential services and operated during this movement control order, could you just kindly share some of those experiences, especially in keeping the employees safe whilst you're operating business? Were there any measures taken during the time? Thank you. That's a very good question. We have a rather large footprint that covers from, we have four branches in China, Hong Kong, all the way through London, New York. Obviously, one of our branches is in Kunming, which is very close to Wuhan and Shanghai. And so we started looking at this issue, going back into early mid-January. And I think from then it was a process for us to again set the right priorities.  And again, looking at safeguarding both, whether it is making sure that they have masks, sanitizers, split operations, what is the minimum viable operation that we could operate? And clearly we had some very good lessons starting in Hong Kong, sorry, in China and then cascading to Hong Kong. And as it expanded into Singapore and Malaysia, again for us it was a matter of, as the threat levels increased in each of the various countries and locations we operated, to make sure that we responded accordingly, reducing the size or footprint, the number of employees that were working from office and then moving more and more individuals working from home. Obviously to do that meant that we had to change the way we met, we operated, which meant increasing the technology applications. So for us it was a continuous process of iteration, learning, taking the various experiences that other countries and other officials went through and applying those that we thought most appropriate to our organization. And again, it's a big experience of communication. You can make the right decisions, you can have the right plan but if we aren't prepared to communicate well and get that understanding across not only to our staff but more importantly to all the other stakeholders that we represent or that are dependent on us for the soundness of the financial system. Again, it's a multi-dimensional plan that we had to execute. Well, thank you for that. I think it's very heartening to hear that how the focus is basically one that is based from a people perspective. I think there are a lot of people out there today that have that type of anxiety as to are the big corporations looking after the people in general. I also note that the point that you were making about the ability to kind of dial up and down the responses based on the different type of scenarios is something that is very key, especially as you highlighted, learning is such a key thing. And I think that that is potential like that story and the advice is going to be helpful for many of us who are across in the small, medium enterprises as well. So with that, let me pivot to Anela. Anela, you recently wrote a piece with Professor Ali Ramanola answering the million dollar question of how long will COVID-19 last? So could you share a bit about that, please? Sure. So this was sort of back at the end of March. And as you say, the question of the time was how long will COVID last? And in a sense, the narrative at the time was flatten the curve and we'll get to the other side around May or June and things will go a bit back to normal. So and the idea of flatten the curve is to keep within the health system capacity. I don't know if you have a slide that we can put up. And it's sort of a familiar picture to many of the surge that would happen if we did nothing. And then the flatten the curve here, the blue is the surge that would happen if we did nothing. And then the red is the flatten the curve, we stay at home, and then we come out the other side. So our idea was, well, how long is that flat curve? If we were to run along at the health system capacity, how long is it? And so our first answer was, you know, if you account for about 5% of people getting a critical case and the number of critical care beds and how fast you can get them through, then our first answer was sort of on the order of 10 years and we thought, four or 10 years. But then we thought, no, it's probably not so bad because not everybody gets it because probably only 60 to 75% of people are going to get this. So that took it, you know, below 10 years maybe. And then we thought, yeah, even then there was a lot of talk about people who have the disease and have no symptoms that aren't being measured. So maybe the critical rate was lower. So even back then, based on Chinese data, people were saying, you know, maybe for every one that we measure, there's another one out there. So that took it maybe back to two to four years. But even then, you know, that's a back of the envelope calculation. It's very uncertain. But the answer was, this is not months, this is years, right? So we really need to plan for the long haul. And when we think of the timeline, you can sort of think of the blue in the picture as that's the timeline of the virus. That's the kind of exponential growth that we were all talking about back then. And our long flat curve, in a sense, is the timeline of the health system capacity.  So then we said, actually, we can set our own timeline by how much we mitigate this. At least we think we should be able to. And with the blue curve, there's this notion of, it's on the television all the time, this idea of the replication number R or R naught. And R naught is sort of the uncontrolled spread before you take any mitigation. And that's for this virus, it's not as infectious as measles, but it's on average, people spread it to one and a half to four people, maybe even five or six. But we can change the effective replication number on average. How many people, if I get it, do I spread it too? And what really matters is if R is bigger than one, we're back into that powerful mean exponential growth. And if R is less than one, then the virus should die away. So really it comes down to how much can we mitigate this? Can we get our R below one? And personally, I'm very hopeful. I think you think back to March when there weren't enough masks. Masks were for people on the frontline of the health system. You couldn't buy hand sanitizer in the shop. We were doing several hundred tests a day in Malaysia. Now we're doing something like 20 times that. You can buy masks for cheaply in the pharmacy and hand sanitizer, it's fine. And the testing capacity, even though there's still a global shortage, it's going up fast, right? So the idea was this could last a long time. Plan for the worst and hope for the best, right? The best, the worst is the long haul. It's years, not months. And the best is probably a vaccine or a good treatment. So that's what our story was about. Thanks, Annela. I think one of the points that you were mentioning, you know, keeping the replication rate down, those are in the usage of masks that has really evolved in the last few weeks, you know, to show how fluid the situations are. I remember initially when there was a recommendation of usage of masks, we just know that that was not something that we could operationalize because there was a pure shortage, but fast forward like eight weeks, 10 weeks. And then we are here now where that is not as acute as a shortage as it was, say, 10 weeks ago. So thanks for that reminder, Annela. And I guess even though, you know, ours less than one is a bit of a numbers geeky thing, economists like numbers. It's also a very clear goal that we're all working towards the same thing. Yeah. Thanks, Annela. So, Gilbert, given that Annela says that, you know, it's a two to four year horizon, but now we are technically in day 57 of the, since the movement control order was put in, or day two of the CMCO, would you be able to share some of the learning that may back I think, or maybe even making as a permanent practice, like in Malaysia and perhaps even regionally as well? Okay. Maybe I'll just start. I spoke a lot about, I called some of the things that we are doing within Maybank. People just take a few minutes just to kind of go into, well, once we went into this, and I think as Annela's pointed out, it was always very uncertain. Again, we're financial people by training and our stress testing typically is quite financial. What we didn't have are a lot of epidemiologists, and how would this factor into the economy? But it was very, very clear it was going to have a very significant human impact. And so a lot of what we did early on, and we continue to do now through, you know, there's a maritalium in place and a number of initiatives have been put in place. But a lot of that was to look at, well, how do we then structure for a recovery? And so we think about the work, the engagement that a number of financial institutions had with the governments in particular, with Bank Nagara was, well, how do we ensure that those that would be most hard hit SMEs and consumers, and again, consumers through, you know, making sure that the SMEs survive to continue to provide good jobs, which then again keeps the economy moving. So a lot of our work has been focused both on a business continuity perspective, as well as how do we help in one of our primary responsibilities, which is keeping a sound financial system, where credit and services moving payments and other things continues to operate. And so a lot of work continues to be done in that area. From a day 57 perspective, we have kind of gone through what I would say is the worst part about how could this go, how do we bring down our footprints, you know, more people working from home, very much aligned to the MCO expectations as analysis to flatten the curve. The next part is anticipating. Well, once things start to end, once we come out of an MCO, once the economy starts to move, how do we assist getting businesses back up and running? So from my perspective, there's a lot of focus on that. We're very, very mindful that this could lead into what is often called the second wave. And I think again, if you looked at the chart that Anela just placed up, if you flatten the curve and you bring it down low one, which is, as an example, what Germany was able to do, then they opened up and we found that the curve went back up over one. And so then you start to bring in the specter of a second wave, which could have even a more serious impact than the first economic part. So it's always again getting this balance. From our perspective, we recognize we need to get the businesses to a sound footing and work with them to do that, but also in a safe way. So a lot of the lessons learned that we have, again, by having a stage as we use roughly the WHO, the World Health Organization's staging, looking at watch list, amber alerts and going into a disaster mode. And then how do we want to scale up, making sure that we can continue to operate in a very sound way for ourselves to provide the services that are required in a way that doesn't have people come out necessarily to either the bank. On the other side, then it's also recognizing that this means there will be cash flow issues for a number of our customers. And so a lot of the work that we're doing now is this preparation, which customers are likely to have cash flow issues. Is this going to be a temporary thing just through the MCO? And it will alleviate itself once we're through the MCO. Is there going to be a longer period? And clearly, there are certain industries often noted the airlines as an example, the cruise ships, hotels, which will be more dramatically impacted. So how do we work with these customers to get them through the next period? Some will be longer and some arguably will be much shorter. But the whole idea now is to start to focus forward. So again, the planning that we put in place to scale down as the crisis built and then looking using that as a guide for how we want to bring both our organization and services to our customers as their needs and demands increase over time is really the primary focus that we've set in place now. And so a lot of work that we're doing in banks are big on data analytics. And so a lot of the work that we're doing is to use our analytics, understand what our customers are doing and where those changes are. Clearly, we're reaching out to our customers at the same time. Speaking to them, what are their needs? When do they think they might start to become much more active? And then how do we then work with them in a much more constructive way to bring their businesses back and facilitate some of the gumminess that is likely to exist in the economy? In terms of permanent practices, some of the things that we have done when we went to what we call live split operations, we recognize that dispersing our staff out of large single or buildings into multiple buildings, the use of technology and engaging with our customers in new ways, well, maybe not new ways, but more in-depth ways, such as you're using chats, using what's up, what using other forms of communication, call centers. So not spending as much time Zoom, I think is a great way that we've been reaching out to many of our customers. And again, just keeping a pulse of what is happening, what their needs are, and then how can we respond in a timely basis as they go forward. I think the best thing we can say is, and I think Annala said it up early, is you plan for the worst and then do everything you can to mitigate and to operate to get to the best. There are many things that we've worked on, and perhaps we have a time during the question and answer, we can go through a few more of those, but I think that's really, from my perspective, how we've tried to move things and keep things moving. Thanks, Gilbert. I think it is a very sober reminder of the potential consequences of reopening without the appropriate type of caution that could actually set the businesses and the economy back. So I think that's a good way to keep the back of our head. And with that, I think I'm going to answer, Annala, what do you feel is the three levels of defence as against this COVID-19 pandemic that we're looking at, and how can we put this into practice? Specifically, how can we modify our behaviours to manage the risk? So this idea of three levels of defence was something that came out of a discussion we had about who's responsible for this.  And so the idea is a bit of a spin on a widely used model of risk management called three lines of defence. The first line is the people who own and manage the risk. The second are people who specialise in risk. They sort of oversee and analyse and improve systems. That's Gilbert, he's the Chief Risk Officer. And then the third line of defence in risk management is independent assurance, which is usually internal audit. And so we said, well, maybe we can think of managing COVID risk in a similar way. Let's call it three levels of risk so we don't take this analogy too far, right? So the first level of risk might be individuals. It's people who catch the disease. It's people who get sick. So we kind of own and manage the risk. And then firms play, as you've just heard from Gilbert, obviously a really important part in overseeing that risk, making it easy for people to make good decisions, putting good systems in place, and that sort of thing. And then really, we need the government to tell us how we're doing because so many people get this disease and don't show symptoms that really that testing and tracking and monitoring is really important. I think government plays a really important, so there's obviously the public health function of the government. There's a huge macroeconomic support role of the government. But economists love to talk about externalities. So externalities are, if I do something, it has costs on you. That's an external, I impose costs on you. So I think government has a place to a role to play there and when example would be travel. If I want to go and travel for personal reasons to somewhere with a high COVID risk and then come back, I could impose really large costs on the community here. So the government has a role to play in mitigating that. I think on the positive side, you can also have positive externalities. If I wear a mask to protect you, that's a positive externality. And so the government can play a role in setting some overall rules that people might not take into account the effects of their actions otherwise. So it's not just about testing and tracing. It's about really the effectiveness of everybody working together these three levels of defense, if you want to call them. And if risk management is really good at the first level, if we all really make sensible decisions, makes it awfully easy for the next level and the next level along. How do we work together? I would say one really important thing is communication, transparency and listening. If people are clear about what they're doing and the goal and goals come from various levels, I think R is well below one is an easy common goal. It makes it easier. If you're sick, don't come to work. If somebody in your household has a symptom, please don't come to work and let me make it easy for you. Let me pay your wages until the testing comes through and let me pay your wages and give you coverage until you're healthy to come back. And also, I think people really, I'm always amazed at innovative solutions that people come up with. If people know the goal and they know what they're trying to do and you listen to them, they come up with amazing ways to mitigate things and to find a new normal that can even be fun and even be better than it was before. One thing I just loved was a video online with a bit of a coffee addict and people receiving their coffee with social distances and electric train or a flying fox. We can have fun with this at the same time. But yeah, decision making during a crisis is hard at the best of time. So a clear goal, some structures to help us think about our roles in it just makes it a bit easier. So that was the idea about that three levels of defense. Thanks, Anela. I think there are a couple of things that you mentioned there that kind of resonated perhaps with quite a lot of people in terms of like, you know, think about making things easy so that people can embrace the new norm and make sure their wages are paid along those lines so they don't have to feel that they have to basically put their lives online to ensure that the basic needs are met. So with that, Gilbert, now that we have like set the stage, going forward, do you see fundamental changes in how businesses operate when it comes to risk relating to COVID-19? I would like to think yes. And certainly the best way to look at this is that this is actually again likely the worst pandemic that has hit since 1918. And so I think it will be something that will stay in people's minds. We had SARS back in 2003. We had H1N1 in 2009. And again, once people recognize that and organizations took measures, the absolute severity of this one and the recognition that, you know, how we want to run our organizations needs to perhaps be de-risked to a greater extent than we have in the past. Maybe not have as much leverage. Maybe think about our employees. Think about how you might do things embracing technology and other ways to be able to do things. A lot, there are a lot of things we can do when I think about SME businesses. I also recognize that, you know, and this is something we talk about in the bank quite regularly. You know, the SME owner is often, you know, spending all his time in the car driving around looking for business. And so we're going to have to say, well, is there going to be something that we can do differently to help facilitate that there's a, you know, the applications of FinTech and other ways to engage businesses? You know, if we look at the Lazada Alibaba and how people can sell through different ways, there likely are, I call it, new ways to do business that maybe weren't as widely embraced. Will there be changes? Undoubtedly, yes.  I would like to, as I said, I'd like to think that we will do things differently from an organizational continuity. I can say that the banks clearly will, given, you know, again, our responsibility for the soundness of the financial system. And I think we will be doing things differently to help our customers, you know, engage with other customers going forward. I think that will be perhaps one of the big takeaways is how can we, I don't want to overuse a phrase called the ecosystem, but how do we, how do we help create a better ecosystem for all of us to work in as we go forward? So again, yes, I think there will be differences. I think we will, we will all adjust. We are already going through a very dramatic change with technology. And I think that again, some of this will continue on.   And I think our customers, likewise, see the imperative to do that coming under this. For us, you know, coming up with better playbooks, I think it's going to be an absolute necessity, not just for pandemics, but for a broader range of threats. I think how we look at things like stress testing, and the skill sets that we're going to need within the organization. As I said earlier, we don't have epidemiologists. We don't have agricultural agricultural specialists. So there are a number of, you know, skill sets we're likely going to have to start to invest in to do our business differently, smarter, not harder as we go forward. Thanks for that, Gilbert. I think like one of the things that when you speak about how businesses have to potentially adapt, I think those are things that key things that people should keep in mind things about like their people, you know, how the disease could potentially spread. But now let us turn over back to Anela and talk about from a point of view of organizations and individuals. In simple terms, Anela, what steps would you suggest that organizations and individuals do to keep the curve flattened in the new norm of living in COVID-19? I have to say, since I've never run a business, when you ask about the organizational side, I'm going to answer that question from an employee's perspective and then from an economist's perspective. So from an employee's perspective, I think, you know, over communicate is one. It's so much easier to follow leaders who say what they want. Have a clear goal. People will rally around you and push the ship in the right direction when they know the destination. And as I said before, listen, I think sometimes there's a sense that the first things we're going to do are the least risk ones, right, as we come out of this. But I'm not sure that we should think of it that way. I think we should think different activities have different risks and the more risky, the more mitigation you need. And then it kind of takes us back to the more familiar world of trade-offs of costs and value and that sort of thing, which is a more comfortable space. And I think, especially when we can do quick turnaround, cheap testing, that really a lot of things become much more possible. But let me turn to an economist's perspective. I think in coming out of this, something that strikes me about this, and I think it's underreported and underspoken about, is that really it's a risk-sharing aspect. Nobody should expect to come out of this whole. And I think, like many crises that we've had, which we would often describe as aggregate risk or system risk, it affects all of us, but none of us caused it, that it tends to disproportionately fall on people really least able to bear it. And that's a problem. They have no control over it. And I'm talking about those with fragile jobs, the gig economy who have less access to health care, Malaysia, we have public health care. So that's positive who don't have access to social welfare, who are in front-line jobs and exposed to the kind of health risks that we're all staying home to avoid. And in these kinds of times of aggregate risk, really we know that it should be people who have their jobs and people with stronger balance sheets who disproportionately do bear the risk, but it doesn't tend to work like that. In part, it's the contracts rewrite, the debt contracts, the employment contracts, the rental contracts. But really we need to think about a better way of sharing risk. And this idea is definitely not new. It goes back to at least two ancient Mesopotamia. The Code of Hammurabi said that in the event of drought, debts were not to be paid. It was emphasized by Mian and Sufi after the last crisis, although I think not a lot really has changed some things, but possibly not enough. This risk-sharing idea, it's obviously central to Islamic finance. But I guess my message is we can't fix the system today and overnight, but for those of us who still have our jobs or have strong enough balance sheets to bear the risk and have been fortunate to come out close to whole, be generous. There are lots of things to support out there. There are lots of people who need support. So I think the risk-sharing is something we should continue to talk about for some time. It's something I think somebody made a comment on the Q&A about the importance of having a fair social support system in place. But Rona, let me turn the question on the questioner. You're the Chief Operating Officer of Asia School of Business. Do you want to say anything about what we need to do to mitigate and keep the curve flat? You've been in the thick of it. I know you have. I don't think you've probably had a day off since this last part. Well, it's good to be busy in this period. That's how I always think about it. I think, as Gilbert mentioned, there are a lot of things to be very heartened and encouraged by. I think, Anela, talking about clear communication that is quite key and being empathetic to everyone in the team is also quite key. So one of the early things that we actually realized that not everyone is going to be as productive as an engage, because if they were more used to doing work that requires physical presence, they will have quite some buffer time. But I thought it was actually important to keep these segments of our workforce engaged.  And ideally acquire a new skill. I didn't expect under new skills to include baking, but it appears from people's Facebook feeds. That's what some people has acquired. But that aside, I do think that ensuring the mindset to say built so that when in time for recovery, we will be able to reap what we sow. But separately, I think what actually really was a very inspiring thing to watch was our MBA students. So some of you may know that ASB moved into a new residence building for students some 300,000 square feet in January. So less than 10 weeks into it before the paint was entirely dry, we have to come up with business continuing planting for the situation of the COVID lockdown. So what we had then was, I think, truly a privilege for me to witness a group of these 30 students from all over the world, maybe they couldn't go back because of border closures come together, organize themselves in teams of emergency food, utilities, health, and come up with that business continuing planning. In less than 72 hours, they were working like relay style. I felt that that was a true testament to the MBA action learning curriculum. And I think like, had they not been so like innovative and to be able to step out and say, we're going to do this, even though we haven't done this before, and really see it to fruition for me, that was a highlight of my last 10 weeks or so. And also, they were doing things in the community, PPE and so on. Yes. So they had idle time on their hands. And then they built them some PPE for people too. So that was pretty you know, heartening to see. But now I also wanted to kind of comment on your remark earlier that this concept of risk sharing is actually something not new. And going all the way back to the Hammurabi Code, I think it's such a heartening reminder, like we keep on facing the same things. And we are not entirely learning from history. So hopefully this time round, one can be optimistic that perhaps things would move in a better direction. So and with that, we've actually come to the end of the questions part, the panelists part. So that is now take a look at our Q&A. So panelists, if you can take a look at it as well and see if there are any questions specifically that, you know, catches your interest, we can also take a look at what was upvoted. So go on and on. The one at the top. Everybody wants to know what's the likelihood of a recession in Malaysia and the world? How long will the recession last? I think it's quite likely we're in a global recession now. The IMF forecasts of 3% fall in global GDP this year for a lot of countries. So what's a recession? A recession is two quarters of negative growth in the economy. So a number of countries have had one negative quarter. China did in the first quarter. Obviously they were heavily affected. A few European countries had negative growth in the first quarter. Will that carry through to the second quarter in some of those countries? Probably yes. In others, they'll recover when you look at Chinese indicators of things like traffic and I think electricity, some of the others that they really fell a lot, but they a lot of them have actually come back towards normal. So I'm quite hopeful about recovery afterwards. For Malaysia, I think Malaysia's first quarter came out at plus one and a half, but that's probably two quarters of about 4% growth. And then a lot of indicators for March were about minus five, right? So that minus five will probably carry through into April. We start easing in May and June, whether Malaysia has two quarters of negative growth. I think it's possibly unlikely. Second quarter, I would think almost certainly, but a recession in that definition, hard to say. I think forecasts for Asia in general are much better than a lot of places, maybe because Asia started from a higher growth path. So you need a bigger contraction, you know, you need a bigger slowing to get you into negative growth. Previous experience with SARS, H1N1 and MERS and so on, you put the mitigation into place more quickly. Maybe a cultural focus on community that makes that mitigation easier. But yeah, you know, the idea of a two, two quarters of global recession is not unlikely. We're probably in one now, but I wouldn't want to make the call. Thanks, Anela. Give us any comments you got? No, I'm probably the same view again, and it's a technical recession clearly driven by the GDP or basic activity falling off to zero because MCOs. I think to us, then it's how quick a recovery is this of E-shape. I would almost certainly say an old. It's just a U-shape. There are a number of things that are happening. If you look at how aggressive a number of the central banks have been globally, whether it's the US Fed, ECB, even in all across Asia or different parts of Asia. So I think one of the things is, is it you? I think it's possible. It was a lot of things I think would have to line up for it to be a U-shape. So I think it's again, and this is where we are spending a lot of time is to say, well, how can we, and I think there's a question talking about how government and private sector can come together. I think it's quite important for us to look at, well, what is it that we collectively can do to try to accelerate part of this process? I don't think anyone party can make it happen. I think there has to be a belief that coming back to what Anela was saying is that the communication from all parties has to be that we're going to work collectively to start to move the dial. We can't wait for somebody else to be the first mover. We're going to have to see, well, how can we all get engaged in this process? And again, collectively, we will take some pain, but how can we move forward? I know within Malaysia, certainly within the Maybank, our conversations are all around that, and I think that's what we really have to do. Otherwise, it could be very long, painful one. If we try to open up too quickly, I think we run the risk of a second wave, which means that it's not going to be at best that you will be at best an L-shaped recovery, which will be very painful for a lot. For those of us who were around for the Asian financial crisis, what we saw was a very adverse impact on middle class and the working class coming out of that in many countries. And I think all of us have to work diligently and see what we can do collectively to avoid a repeat of that event, where basically a generation lost hope. Yeah, and although I'm optimistic, I mean, I think you've written some important projects, issues about coming out of it the other side. And there is sort of separation of people from firms, confirms continue, which is really your part of the world. Does that then feed back into banks? Hopefully not. And the whole issue of uncertainty is so important. Even if you open up, if people are uncertain, they're not going to go out, they're not going to spend. And so really giving people a degree of certainty is so important. Thank you. I'm looking at the next question. That's how with a high number of votes, what would be the three key changes to consumer banking experience as a result of MCO? I think this one has your name on it, Gilbert. Three key changes. Let me think that one through. I mean, we've already seen a number of things. People are doing a lot more online. That's what I was alluding to earlier, whether it's e-commerce, whether it is purchasing meals from restaurants, the house support local restaurants. So it's again, how do we continue to move that? But I think that will be one element. I think people may not travel as much. So doing things online, doing things more local, I think is going to be a reality for, I would say, one to two years. I think in terms of how people look at their homes, probably will change as well. I think so people will start to, I think arguably there'll be greater desire to save up money or to work at getting the incomes to be able to move beyond I call it working from paycheck to paycheck type of an existence. So this likely will have changed how people start to think about their future and maybe not live as much in the moment. That's both good and bad for the economy. So going back to Annela and what I was trying to get at earlier, we do want people to go out and spend money. But again, we also recognize that people are going to adjust as a consequence of what they've just gone through. We saw this in 2008, 2009. We saw this clearly during the age financial crisis. But to increase towards more digital economies away from sort of the bricks and mortar going out to do services, I think that is just a likely outcome. It was already underway. And I think this will likely accelerate a lot of that for banks. I think we still recognize that people want a human touch. So you cannot just make things digital and impersonal. So it's how do you overlay the human touch into I call it the future service channels that are being created. And I think that's where a lot of time and effort will be spent. Thanks, Gilbert. Annela, do you have any comments to ask? So am I going to have Zoom calls with my banker and like I can have Zoom calls with my doctor now? I think that's going to be a reality. If that's the, I called the channel or the approach you would like as the customer, I think, yes, it will be very likely. I think we're doing a lot to onboard electronically. The government is working on new identity card programs. Again, that will facilitate much more of that. So yes, I think people will have the opportunity to not have to drive, find parking, all those other nice things and inconvenient things and still have a very close relationship with the financial advisor or their banker. All right. I think we have time for one more question. Is there any question on the list that I, Gilbert and Anna would like to address? If not, I can pick one. Why don't you pick one? They're all quite good. All right. Why don't I pick the one that's maybe reworded a little? Gilbert, what's the biggest risk you see that you're preparing for? And then I think all three of us can probably give a view at that as a point of wrap up. I think again, the main one that we're working on is how to engage with our customers to get back to a return to normal, if you want to call that. That is the biggest challenge that is before us and our customers. And that's the one that we want to really commit ourselves to addressing not just to the end of the MCO, but for the 18 months of fall. Thanks, Gilbert. Annela? I think the biggest risk for me, I mean, I think we've learned to teach online in that class, but I don't think, I was partnered by a survey I read yesterday that said really the outcomes students learning online and offline stay in course, really they do come out learning better in person. That personal touch really makes a difference, which to some extent tells you that you can focus more on giving the personal touch online. But also, I mean, the biggest thing I'm thinking about is how can we get students back on campus, which is a tough one because it involves travel. But I think there are solutions coming with travel. We can test, we can quarantine. Going forward, there may be quicker turnaround, cheaper tests. There may be, I'd personally happily wear a prison bracelet to be able to go and self-isolate instead of quarantine. And it affects the travel thing is important for me because my children are in another country as well. But also, how do you manage gatherings of especially relatively young, healthy people who don't show symptoms? And really, I think that ramping up of testing and that testing becoming easier has got to be a key part of what we do. I mean, I shouldn't be saying this because you're doing that sort of planning, but that's what I think about is how are we going to get back to where we want to be? Yeah, I think one of the things just like reflecting on the conversation so far, I think there's a natural tension between health and economics. I think that, you know, every segment there is a different type of scale up and scale down using the term skill, but used earlier on that's actually quite key. And this is the part that when we reopen, if we treat everyone as the same one homogenous population is actually not going to be optimal. And I feel like that is where potentially the risk from my point of view is something that hopefully we can address, you know, as a collective as opposed to as individuals or individual organization, but working across government organizations and individuals. So with that, do you have any final kind of comments before we wrap this up? I'll start with Vanilla and then I'll end with Gilbert. Oh, I don't know. Just yeah, be generous, look out for people who didn't make it so well through support the economy. Cooking's great. I'm glad people have improved cooking. I'm a bit over it. Buy your favorite food online. You're supporting not only the business, which is good because your favorite curry will still be there in a month, but you're supporting the cook, you're supporting the cleaners, the other restaurant staff, the delivery person. So yeah, we need to go out and buy things safely and support the economy. Thank you. I'd have to share that sentiment as well.  You know, this has been a great time to spend with your loved ones, hopefully anyways. And then I think it is exactly what Annela says. It's look after your neighbors, your community. That's what differentiates us in a civilization. And I think we all have a role to play to get through to the other side. We will. I'm a firm believer that we will pass through this. Say we'll have pain and we'll have some adverse outcomes, but we will get through and hopefully we get through together and not in a, I'll call it in a negative fashion. So that the, you know, my expectation, a lot of people pulling together. I've seen the dust of a lot of people in working together, you know, to serve, you know, the organization, but also and most importantly, the communities and the customers. Yeah, I would second that. I think of the things we know some things will keep going afterwards, all flexibility, digital, all of that, but really that whole community experience that we've seen again and again. Fantastic. And let's keep that. I think it was always there. Broadened and shot through, which is great. Yeah. Thank you. A very big thank you to both of you for your time, Gilbert, for your time on Ella, and for ending this on such an optimistic and hopeful note. For those of you who are still, who have joined today, I have a request. Can you please give the feedback per what you see on screen? We would like to know what you enjoyed. What would you like to see more of? And for future topics, is there anything that you would like to hear from us? And our next webinar, stay tuned. We will have something coming up and we will be sending you details soon. So with that, you know, stay safe, everyone, and see you at the next one. Goodbye.


Hello, Artistic Family and Monet Café. You know, we've had a lot of things happen while we've had this group in the Art Group Monet Café YouTube channel and my Patreon group. We've had all of the events that have happened in Australia with the fires and just multiple things that we have all been supportive of each other in our group to pray for each other and just to share our hearts with each other. But never have we had something where it affected really the world, you know. So I've tried to be lighthearted about this and I would say not cause more panic than is needed but at the same time I do realize, my husband and myself would realize the seriousness of this because you know I was thinking today we have, I've noticed our numbers in our group, we have a lot of people in the elderly range including me. You know, I don't think I'm in that dangerous range yet but I just wanted to say this is something that's very sensitive to me and I just wanted to share a message with everyone that I'm praying for everyone that even though I don't think it's the pandemic that could make people just go crazy, it shouldn't make people go crazy. It's still incredibly serious because even the flu, even anything like pneumonia is very serious to anyone who is elderly or their immune system is compromised. So I just wanted to let you guys know that I am praying for everyone. This is serious especially for that age group or people who are special needs or compromised immune system. So we're going to keep praying, we're going to get through this together and you know what? I have a great suggestion though to get through the stress and the panic. Let's paint. Alright guys, happy painting. At least we can do that and we have a way to get through all of the emotional drama that's going on right now. So anyway, happy painting guys. Just a message from me. Just wanted to share that with you. Love you guys.


Are you surprised Pete Carroll's still doing this? No, because Pete is like a fountain of youth himself. You know what I'm saying? Like, he personally gets you energized every day. Like, you would think a lot of coaches, players at least, hear their coaches and they're like, oh man, I'm not trying to hear him. He just keeps running off. But Pete actually makes you want to like do things. Like, and everything in Seattle is just competition based. Like, practice is harder than games sometimes. But like everything else is cool. Meetings are cool. Lifting is cool. The city is cool. It was my first time living on the West Coast. So like, and we made the playoffs it's the only time I ever made the playoffs. So it was like, definitely my favorite time.


So the lions are up by only 25 points. I haven't got time to finish my test. I haven't got blank time to finish my test enough So I haven't got enough just like the first one right she does not go out enough I do not So I haven't got too many time So time they talk about as like the general the general concept of time So you would say you would not say many because you don't they are talking about just time Just time not minutes or hours just to talk about time You could say you would say I have too much time Too much time Yeah, exactly like hair. So you talk about it as the general idea just like the hair I was going to say yes, I have too much hair. You don't say I have too much You don't say I have too many hair You can but when they talk about so you could say I have too many Minutes I have too many hours so you get specific into the countable that countable parts of the time But just time so I see what you're saying right? So but when we say time we are just talking about time the idea of time But then if you start to say the actual Countable parts of the time like minutes hours seconds then you can say many just like hairs if you get specific And you count specific hairs then yes So three thousand two hundred sixty four to two thousand fifty you drink blank coffee. That's why you feel sick Very good. So coffee. We don't really count the coffee, right? So we say much instead of many right very good So mistakes we can count our mistakes, right? So we would say many to me understand that If you can count your mistakes, I made one mistake two mistakes three mistakes If I give you your test back and you got five wrong and seven wrong then you made two mistakes, right? It's still close


Well, I'm Amis the Steve Rhodes as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day one to two East and Santa time also great newsletter Mastering probability now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter You can move it out website of TFNN hit newsletters You can see master of probability right on the right-hand side. You just hit subscribe You get master of probability for one month for $149 You get a six months for 695 which is a savings of $199 or 22% and you get it for one year for 1195 which is a savings of $593 or 33% now They all come with a 30-day money back guarantee folks So you can check it out Steve's got a lot of archives on there really gets to understand How he looks at the market each and every day. So check it out right here right now Steve Rhodes. What's going on? Well, I'm hoping that That we're gonna see something we haven't seen for 39 years and that's a three-peat With regard to the with regard to the Tampa Bay Lightning out there So the last time that there were three straight Stanley Cup wins out there actually came from a team that probably nobody I know I would not have been able to guess this, but it was a New York Island island Yeah, you know, you know what is that they said at the other night when I was watching when you were watching the same thing Exactly the other two times to make Canadian teams. Yeah twice by the by the Maple Leafs and twice by the Montreal Canadian So, yeah, let's see, you know, we'll see it. We'll see if they can do it They they you know, it's wild so check this out So the the the coach at that time was John Cunniff John comes up from South Boston every day Listen to this man. This is so sick.  He's about he's about ten years older than me at least he played from BC But is that crazy? That's yeah, I know Pretty pretty heavy, you know a lot of excitement in Tampa's gotta be a big time Dude, can you believe folks if you saw this game, right? Steven Stamco's man Especially the shot he was so far away man That's what that's when I mean if you saw this shot folks He was so far the goal. He wasn't ready for it man because it's like he was ten feet away from the blue line He just fired it and it was awesome man. I know yeah, but it's still coming at 95 miles an hour So it is Yeah, yeah, let's go in the market. So we began 2022 Taking a look at all of the TD nine count topping signals that were present in the markets. Yep I remember this well, man Yeah, and and so folks and it's it's one of the tools that I teach so if you don't know the pattern You really should learn it. You can sign up for mastering probabilities. You can do for 20 and eight days It doesn't cost you anything. Yeah, but if you're a technical trader You really want to understand this pattern out here gave us a big warning sign And now what we have is at least right now as a 321 in the afternoon We've got the NDX the Russell 2000 to some eyes in the NASDAQ composite all trading below last year's lows Which is a real bearish signal out there So what I thought that we could do, you know, we gotta do Steve I don't mean to interrupt it I'm gonna find that clip that when I was interviewing you because I remember that so well because I says yeah, because yeah We're gonna find that clip. I'll find it this week. Sure. Yeah, that's great Yeah, because because there was nobody thinking that that was even a possibility. No, totally totally just I mean everybody was Celebrating right cuz you had put together that and exactly what you just said now if it breaks this is gonna be a monster problem, right? Yeah, exactly and so and now more likely than not, you know, just we're looking at big picture here So more likely than not we don't see a major bottom come in until 2023 and how I get to that is this is a monthly chart It's easier just to show this on a monthly chart. Yeah, but this is a monthly chart of a bull market This is going back. This is the Dow and this has taken us back into the March 2009 Well, we see here with the exception of one time since that time period of March of 2009 Every correction has been two to three bars Then that's what's really labeled on the screen where the arrows are at There was one period of time that was back in the 2015 or 2010 11 flash crafts I believe that we saw five monthly bars to downside. So this is typically what we would see out here I still believe we're in a longer term much longer term bull market And if that's the case then we should see basically a two-bar reversal That would suggest that we would see some kind of bottom take place in in 2023 But we'll we'll get there when we get there will will hopefully we'll know it or at least be able to see it from a technical standpoint So yes, this this is what sets us up into I'm not saying we're not gonna have bounces and significant bounces along the way We very likely will but really expecting the next major bottom to come in in 2023 So let's spend a little time and you had started doing this as we were coming in to the segment Taking a look at price targets to the downside now you were using a to b equal cd Projections so that's one tool that we have another tool that we have in just sticking with the TD 9 count pattern is that the TD 9 count pattern Helps us to identify an objective level where price is broken out from and when you break through a breakout Area says you go to the next breakout level well in the case of the and these are all monthly time frames So on a bigger picture here the Dow's larger picture says maybe 24 843 And so when we think about possibly going out into 2023 before there's a major bottom That's a real price target The s&p its next price target on the way down is 37 23 if in june we see a close below that level That's thinking a signal move to the 2965 area So each of these red horizontal lines on this chart represent the breakout levels where price would move to But if we take a look at the end of x100 it's trading below that level already that that should have really been the buy The dip area So this is really telling us of significant problems that we've got inside the market and technically Talking about getting down to the 74 23 level the semis which are also trading below their monthly breakout area suggests 1625 could be a target and an Aztec composite 85 37 now the cool thing is that we go from larger time frames like monthly We can go take a look at the weekly the weeklies also have breakout levels So before those monthly areas come into play tom We need to see some of these weekly levels break and And most people they can come back watch the archive if they're just listening They'll see these levels on on tiger tv the dow the area that we're looking at is 30,014 As its next weekly level if we see a close below that that's going to signal lower price The s&p the area to watch is 32 79 now these are weekly time frames The ndx 100 is 10 9 57 the russles at 15 5 40 out there and i've got the others as semis and trainings and so forth Down on the bottom now from a short term. So that's a bigger picture folks What i also like to do is give you kind of a short term picture So like what's happening today and the shorter term message of the market says that we should expect and anticipate a bounce to form Perhaps over the corp perhaps just within the next 24 hours, but certainly over the next couple days and tom how We achieve that Conclusion is because the new york stock exchange advanced decline oscillator That's the difference between the 19 and 39 period exponential moving average of the advanced decline line It has already attained the significant Oversold level which is down at minus 250. It's the second panel that's in my chart out here And folks i take you back to the 2007 2009 bear market We had many instances of these if you take a look at the green arrows out there Every time the market gets or this this oscillator gets down into the minus 250 area Doesn't happen necessarily that day sometimes it does but usually sometimes it could take a couple days tom It happened back then it's going to happen now too in these bear markets So we should expect and anticipate a bounce what i would tell folks to watch overnight Is the two-hour time frame charge for the equity futures I've got something called the nostilator and change line a price closes above that that tells us that we've got a Rally that's underway out there. So that's what i see longer picture in shorter term Yeah, i love it man. I don't find that archive man for sure That'd be great because that we were at big highs then man. That was that was a term. We were still at highs man And that's a cool thing about the pattern. Yes. So it's just it's a nice it's a nice pattern And everybody should you know about it and use it come right over folks The newsletters you'll see it on the right hand side master of probability hit that button Steve have a great one.  We look forward to tomorrow. Thanks. You want to take