What's up everyone, Lilo here from smartoptioncell.com. Today is Saturday, February 4th, 2023.  I got a good one for you today. I got lots of people asking me to explain what implied volatility is. What is it? How do I find it? How do I use it? And why is it so important? So this is a good one today. So I want everyone to, you know, stick around and make sure you totally understand what I'm talking about here, because volatility, whether we're talking about implied volatility or historical volatility, it's very important in the pricing of options and how you can use it. And it's one of those kind of elusive subjects that people don't really understand how to use it and how to input it into the options formula. So I'm gonna give you some good ideas on where to find this stuff, how to use it and what it is. So you have a better idea of, you know, how to use it in your options trading. So you'll sit back, relax for the next X amount of time, try to make these things a little bit shorter. But, you know, what you see on your screen right here is the smart option seller guide to implied volatility. This is my cheat sheet here. And that's what we're gonna talk about today. The all about implied volatility and what it is and how to use it. So for those of you who are maybe just starting out or, you know, maybe got some veterans here in the options trading market, volatility is one of the inputs into the option pricing calculator or formula or calculation, I should say that helps give an option its price. Okay, options prices just don't get created out of thin air. You know, if you're ever traded options before you know they all have a price and it's traded per contract like a dollar per contract or 50 cents per contract or $5 per contract. So a lot of people don't understand, well, how does an option get its price? Well, there's a number of things that go into the option pricing formula. And, you know, those things are the price of the stock itself, the strike price, days to expiration, volatility, which we will talk about today. And two lesser things are interest rates and dividends of stocks. Though, you know, those last two don't really play a lot of effect, don't have a lot of effect in the price of an option, but they're still in the formula. There's something that called the Black-Scholes model. The Black-Scholes model is named after the two gentlemen that created the option pricing calculation. So one of those four main things, you got stock price, strike price, days expiration and volatility. All three out of those four very easily found when you're trying to use a calculator, trying to figure out an options price. You always know the stock price. You can always figure out the days to expiration and you know the strike price you're talking about. But volatility is one of those inputs that can confuse people. They're not sure, you know, where to get it, how to calculate it. Should I use a 30-day volatility, a one-day volatility? So basically that's what we're going to talk about today. All right? So implied volatility or IV for short is basically the market's best guess of how volatile a stock is going to be fluctuating going forward, okay? One of the things volatility that gets computed into the option calculation is based on, you know, how do you think the stock is going to move in the future? How volatile, how big is it going to fluctuate high to low? Now volatility isn't trying to figure out is the stock going to move higher or if the stock's going to move lower? Volatility is just all about how erratic the stock is. You know, what are the chances of it moving really big or higher or moving really big lower or moving very little lower or moving very little higher? It's all about the movement. Doesn't matter which direction. So volatility is all about trying to figure out, you know, how is the stock going to perform moving forward in an erratic sense, okay? So that's what implied volatility is. And it's always expressed as a percent, like 30% and most people, most people look at volatility on a 30 day timeframe. You know, most options have, you know, one month options and a lot of people play these shorter one month options. So a 30 day timeframe is a very popular measurement for volatility. And as I said, 30% or 50% or 10%, that's how volatility is expressed. What does that mean? Well, it means the stock at its base price, wherever the stock is trading, that means it can fluctuate 30% higher or lower around that base price within the timeframe in the future. Okay? So in order to use the option calculator properly, you have to input a volatility number. And that's typically implied volatility or some people call it future volatility. What's the future volatility going to be? Now, there's another term called historical volatility. And historical volatility is how volatile or erratic the stock has performed in the past. So these are actual price movements that the stock has made in the past. And you can go back and you look at the past prices and then you can calculate the volatility. That's called historical volatility. That is not a guess. These are things that actually happened. Okay? So historical volatility is all about things that already happened. It's a fact. These are known prices. So you would think intuitively, well, if the stock has traded, when a 30% historical volatility range, then something that can help you make your future volatility guess or your implied volatility guess is how its historical volatility has been fluctuating. So you kind of use that as part of your gauge, historical volatility as part of your gauge for your implied volatility moving forward. Okay? So down here, IV uses HV as a guide for its calculation. If it was 30% historical volatility in the past, then there's a good chance it could be 30% in the future. All right? So there's the historical volatility is just one input that can help you create your own implied volatility or what you think the future volatility will be. Well, what else can go into an implied volatility calculation? Well, right here where my mouse is, implied volatility can take into consideration upcoming events for that stock, that specific stock. Now each stock has its own historical and its own implied volatility levels. Okay? You can't, not all stocks are the same because not all stocks move the same. Some are flat as they move, some are very erratic. So it's going to have different historical and implied volatility levels. So some of the other things that come in to play that help you create this implied volatility amount is the stock having an earnings report coming up. Now you know, excuse me, that an earnings report can really move a stock higher or lower right after the earnings are announced. So in the days leading up to that earnings announcement, stocks could, you know, there's an opportunity for the stock to fluctuate very widely after the announcement comes out. So the volatility level of that stock, the implied volatility level of those options I should say are going to start to go up in the days leading up to the announcement. Why? Because no one knows how the stock's going to react after the announcement. So the market makers, the option market makers will bump up the implied volatility level of the options because they want to protect themselves, right? If the market makers have to give you a bid and offer on that option price, they need to protect themselves against an adverse movement in the stock. So you'll see if you're watching a stock's options a few days before its earnings announcements, you will see that all of a sudden all the option prices, both calls and puts will start to creep up in price. Regardless of where the stock is trading, you'll see the option prices get more expensive because everyone's kind of gearing up for a potential big move in the stock. And so the earnings announcement will have an effect, a government report, like we know the unemployment reports that come out on that first Friday of every month, you'll start to see all stocks, mostly all stocks, their option prices will start to steadily increase up to that Friday because no one knows how the unemployment reports gonna affect stocks. So you'll see option prices start to creep up. And this is all takes into account how the option prices are performing. Implied volatility is you're guessing, of course, where the stock's gonna move in the forward but implied volatility has an effect on the options price. So you'll see the option prices moving. An FDA announcement for healthcare or bio pharmaceutical stock can have their options prices start moving higher in the days before an FDA announcement is going to be forthcoming.  So implied volatility has all these factors that could be used into creating a, what's my guess for how's the stock gonna fluctuate going forward? And all these things could come into play in addition to the historical volatility, all right? So those are some of the things that can affect implied volatility. And you have historical volatility and implied volatility. And how did they work with each other? I'm gonna go show you some charts in a minute here of each one. And but what I wanna talk to you about is that, if you look here where my mouse is, we'll compare a couple of stocks, you can have two stocks that have the same exact stock price. And you would think, well, if stocks are trading at the same price, wouldn't their options prices be the same as well? Both calls and puts. And no, that is not true. Stocks that have the same stock price can have extremely different option prices. And the reason being, if you're looking at the same stock price, the same expiration day, and the same strike price, you would think, well, these option prices have to be the same. But no, the wild card here is the volatility. One stock could have a really high volatility, and one stock could have a really low volatility, and you'll see how the option prices could be completely different. I'll show you some examples there, and I'll show you some websites as well. So where are we here? Now, also two stocks could also have the same implied volatility level. Some people ask me about, well, what about ranking volatility or volatility percentages? What does that mean? And how does that help you? A stock has its volatility over time, and sometimes that volatility can be really high, and sometimes that volatility for that specific stock can be really low. And you wanna know, where is the stock's current volatility based on its one-year range? Is it at the high level of its one-year range, or is that the low level of its one-year range? Or is it right in the middle? In addition, each stock has its own volatility, but it also has its percentage. Where in the zero to 100% range is that stock's volatility falling? Is it currently expensive based on its pass, or is it currently cheap based on its pass? So right here, you can have two stocks that have the same current implied volatility level, but one could be in its low percentile range, and one could be in its high percentile range. And this is very important right here. Don't compare outright IV levels, the current level. Don't compare current levels of one stock to another, because that doesn't help you in any way, shape, or form. You always wanna compare that stock's implied volatility levels to its own past within that same stock. This one, very important right here. Okay, we're gonna show you why that is. All right? How to use IV, when to use IV, that's all based on the options strategy that you're using, okay? If volatility is really, really cheap on a stock, then more options buying strategies would make more sense, because you're buying options when they're cheap. I'm not talking about dollar-wise. I'm talking about volatility-wise. When you hear options players saying, oh, vol is cheap, or volatility is cheap, that means the current volatility for that stock is at the low end of its range. And that means when you buy options, when volatility is cheaper, there's a better chance of being profitable if the stock has a pretty good wild fluctuation. Now, on the flip side, if volatility is really high, options selling strategies could be better used at that time, meaning selling puts, or selling put spreads, or selling call spreads, or selling condors, whatever. Option selling strategies usually work better when volatility is high, and option buying strategies usually work better when volatility is low, based on that percentile list, the ranking list, okay? For me, yes, volatility is important, but for me, it's really the charts that are the most important, how that stock looks on the charts. Is it getting ready to make a move higher, or is it getting ready to make a move lower? So for me, number one is always how the stock looks on the chart, and number two, volatility is very important, okay? So let's start looking at some charts here before we do that. Let's go to, I wanna bring you up to not this one yet, our website, smartoptionsseller.com, because I know we've been talking about put selling the last couple of weeks, and I wanna make sure everyone gets a free copy of our put selling basics ebook. You go to our website, smartoptionsseller.com. This is free, our free put selling basics ebook. Scroll down here, put your name and email address, and we will send you an email, a response email, with a link to get the free ebook, okay? So don't miss out on that. I implore everyone to get a free copy of our put selling basics ebook. All right, let's go back to our little cheat sheet here. Now we're going to look at some charts, we're gonna look at some websites, so you'll be able to become a smarter trader and understand what implied volatility is all about. So let's go first to our, there's two websites I wanna show you, actually three websites. The first one is the optionseducation.org website right here, optionseducation.org, okay? It's called the Options Industry Council and they have lots of great free stuff. So when you get here, click on this little spot right here where it says explore, and it's gonna open up to a new page where they've got all this great free information. They've got all this stuff you can read here, options overview, different strategies, advanced concept. But what I want you to concentrate on today here is this little section right here. This is the free section, well it's all free, but this is the tools that I'd like you to use or you have free access to. Number one is the historical and implied volatility link right here, click on that, okay? Now what it's gonna do is it's gonna bring up a new page here and this is where you can see how volatility is historical and implied for any stock that you choose, okay? Now we're going to look at, defaults to spy the SPY, all right? So we can just use that one for our example sake. Now they give you a little table here, historical volatility and implied volatility. Current, this is where you kind of wanna concentrate. This is where it currently is. Historical and implied volatility right here, this column, okay? But it also tells you it's 52 week high and it's 52 week low. So that forms the basis of the percentile. Where is its current volatility based on its one year range? Now this is one of the best parts right here. Click on this little chart right here and it'll bring up a little bit bigger chart. You can't, it doesn't really get any bigger than this but I'll expand it a little bit. This is a great visual tool. This is a volatility chart. It's not a price chart, okay? This is the spy but this is not a price chart. This is a volatility chart. You can see on the right hand side is the percentages. These are the volatility percentages of the implied and historical. Now the historical is the blue line. You can see the blue line and the implied is the orange line. Now most of the time historical and implied volatility will move in tandem with each other. There are times where they differ. You can see right here historical got really high at 30% but implied was still low around 20%. And that could just mean there was a big event in the past that the historical volatility is starting to show that the spy was fluctuating a lot but the implied saying that it's not gonna fluctuate too much in the future. So the implied volatility was coming down before the historical volatility came down with it. So what you wanna do is you really wanna look at the current volatility, historical and implied right here, this is the most current all the way on the right side of the chart. So you can see they're roughly between 16 and 17%. Both the implied and historical, 16 to 17%. Now is that high or low for the spy? Well, if you just look at the past, you can see currently down here, that's pretty low based on the 52 week high and low areas. The only other time it really got this low was this one time in August and then back in April, end of March, early April last year. So all this other stuff was higher. So currently the spy, the volatility on the spy is currently low. Now if we close this out and we go back to our little table here, you can see that you look at the current, it's roughly, if we look at the 30 day one, the 30 days, it's in the 16 to 17%. Now if you go back to the 52 week high and low, the high was 30 to 31%, the low was almost 15%. So you can see the current vol is very close to the 52 week low. So that means on a percentile basis, the spy is in that very low percentile basis, meaning, hey, if you were gonna buy some options, then buying options would be better at this time because volatility for spy is on the low end of its range. So that's very important to know. Now I wanna show you some other, I wanna compare two stocks that have roughly the same price but have very different volatility levels. Now let's look at a stock like, let's look at a stock, two stocks we're gonna look at is Chewy and Cisco. So we'll type in Chewy here, click on go. Now Chewy, and Chewy's around $48 a share, that this is the price chart. Chewy's around $48 a share. Let's look at the volatility chart. And volatility, let's, whoops, let's see if we can open this up a little more. I wish the chart got bigger, but it really doesn't. So Chewy right now is trading around, 60% implied volatility and historical volatility, you can see right here. It's actually on the lower end of its range based on the past, but 60% and the stock price is roughly $48 as we just saw. And if we compare that to Cisco, remember the volatility is around 60% here with Chewy and its price is around $48. Now Cisco, we type that in, Cisco's price is also around $48 stock price. Well let's look at the volatility level for Cisco. Now you can see here, HV historical is around 17% and implies around 27%. So you can kind of take a little average of that. So maybe 22, 23% if you want to take an average, but compared to Chewy, Chewy's volatility was 60%. Cisco's around mid-20s, but they have the same stock price. So that's where I'm going back from what I said earlier, you would think stocks that have the same stock price, wouldn't the option prices be the same? And it's gonna be no because their volatility levels are different. And let's go to an option calculator and I'll show you exactly how that works. Now also again, the free tools over here, click on options calculator and let's start with Chewy first. Okay, we're gonna put in Chewy and we're gonna look at some of its current options. Now Chewy's $48.73 closed yesterday. Let's look at the front, let's go out a month or so to the March options. Now you can see the volatility's, the good thing about the OIC here is that they give you a volatility level that they know that they use, which falls in line with what we just looked at on the charts. So Chewy's volatility is about 64.25% for the March contracts. We'll click calculate and these at the money strikes, the 48.5 puts and calls are worth, the call's worth 440 per contract and the puts just under $4. So let's just say between the two of them, $4.20, average price put in call, okay? 64% volatility price is 48.73. Let's compare that to Cisco, which has a roughly same stock price. Let's hit on Cisco. Now remember, the calls and puts are around $4. Click on Cisco and you can see roughly the same stock price, 48, it's off by about 10 cents stock price. At the money strike, let's go to March. So we're all using the same things here, same stock price, same expiration, same date, but you can see the volatility is under 21%. And you can see the price of the call and put are $1.50 here, $1.18 here. So with Cisco and Chewy having the same exact stock price, the same expiration date, the same strike price, the options prices are wildly different. Chewy's options were a little over $4, or roughly $4. These are $1.50 to $1.18. And the only reason why that could be different is because of the volatility number, right? So don't get confused. You would think stocks with the same price have to have the same option prices and that's not true because the volatility numbers are very different, okay? So let's go and start to look at options ranking or percentiles. I'll show you two websites you can go to. I want you to go to bar chart.com. Move this over here for a second. I don't know if this is in the way or not or whether you can see, but I am moving something. Bar chart.com, click on the options tab here at the top and then go to IV rank and IV percentile. And let's get rid of this. I don't want that. Now, this is all free stuff as well. If you use free stuff, you're gonna get hit with all these other kinds of advertisements, okay? Just close a lot of those out. So what you'll see here is that you're gonna get a stock IV rank and IV percentile. It's gonna show you stocks that have really high IV or really low IV, okay? Now you got the list here. What you wanna do is you go over to the IV percentile.com and just click on it and it's gonna rank them from the high, I'm gonna do high to low here. So you'll see stocks that have really high, not the absolute number, but where it falls in its 52 week range, okay? Now, something like, and then the thing about bar chart it's only gonna show you the first 20. If you wanna see the rest, you're gonna have to start paying for it, but I'm gonna show you another website as well where you can get a lot more for free. So let's just look at this example here. You have the high IV ranking percentiles, meaning that the current IV level is at the highest for the stock in the last 52 weeks. Something like, and then down here, these are the very low percentiles, so 1%, 2%. So if you compare a stock like Snap, okay? And it's current implied volatility is 64.4%. And if you go up to a stock like Google up here, their IV is only 40%. So you would think, well, Snap would be a better stock to sell options on because it has a higher absolute volatility than Google. 64%, Google's 40%, you think, I'm gonna sell these Snap options because it has a higher volatility. Well, that is the wrong way to go about it because you have to look at the IV percentile. Even though Snap's got a higher volatility level, it's only at the 2% range of its 52 week high and low. So these Snap options are actually cheap on a volatility basis. Not absolute numbers, but on a volatility basis. Now if you go up to Google, the 40% volatility, see this right here says implied volatility, is at the 78% tile. So actually Google's options are more expensive than Snap's based on an IV percentile range. Okay, so you don't wanna confuse the absolute numbers. Don't compare the absolute numbers to two different stocks. You wanna compare the absolute numbers to the stock itself. Okay, Google's 40% is in that 78% range while Snap's is in its very low range. So Snap's options are actually cheap and Google's options are relatively high. So don't get confused there. Make sure you only compare the stocks with itself. Now the other website I wanna show you here is, it's called MarketChameleon.com. I probably talked about this before, MarketChameleon.com has great, great free information. Now if you go to the option implied volatility rankers under here, if you click on the options, you go to the implied volatility rankings, you'll come up with this screen right here. Okay, and it gives you a ton more information. Once again, these are the volatility numbers. Currently the 30 day, this is IV 30, that's based on 30 days. It's a 30 day look back period. So every rolling 30 days you're gonna get, it's gonna compute new numbers. So what you wanna do is here, the IV percentile rank. Click on that and it's gonna rank them. This is low, this is the 0% rank. So these are stocks that are in the lowest percentile ranks over the last 52 weeks, further options implied volatility. So let's click on this one again and we'll go, we'll see what some of these higher ones are. These are all in the 100% range. So these stocks have very, very, very expensive options. And these have, if we click it again, very low, cheap options, cheap volatility basis, not cheap on dollar basis. Just be aware of that. Yes, a Google option might cost $5 and a Snap option might only cost a dollar. But on a volatility basis, those Google options really shouldn't be trading $5. They should be trading maybe three and a half or $4. And the Snap options that are only worth a dollar have traded up to three or $4 in the past. So if you're gonna trade on a volatility basis, you wanna make sure you're buying and selling options based on that IV percentile rank. Okay, very important to do that, all right? So that really can give you an idea of why it's not smart to compare one stock to another, whether that's based on its absolute volatility level or its absolute stock price, okay? Each stock has its own volatility levels and you wanna compare that to the stock itself. All right, so I think that is a pretty good idea of what volatility is all about. Let me scroll back up here, make sure we didn't miss anything. We talked about IV. We talked about HV. We talked about what goes into calculating volatility, how to use it, where to find it, don't compare two stocks to each other. So in your trading, this is just more information for you to understand about how and why options trade in a certain way and how and why they're priced in a certain way. Implied volatility is very important. It's not an exact number. People can calculate them differently. You can use them based on a 30-day look back period, a 60-day look back period. You can use closing prices of the stock. You can use combinations of the high and low of the day of the stock. It's all about how wildly the stock has moved in the past and you're making a guess going forward and that gets reflected into the price of the options because volatility is an input into the option price and calculator. All right, so lastly, let me just show you.  A lot about what I just said here, more graphs and things like that. So I hope this has been helpful to you. Remember, here's a smart option seller guide to implied volatility. If you watch the video here, you'll be able to see the whole thing. So give me a thumbs up in this YouTube video. I hope it's been helpful to you. Leave me a comment, send me an email. I always try to answer. Don't forget to download the free ebook. Let's go back to our website real quick, free ebook. If you want more about what we do, some of our services, we do have some paid newsletters. Our smart option sellers, we sell naked puts, vertical spread trader. We sell put option credit spreads. We have our one-on-one coaching too as well if you need some help getting to that next level. All right, that'll do it for me today. I hope everyone has a great weekend and a great trading week ahead. This is Lee Lowell signing off.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good Billy Ray, feeling good Lewis. We're going to look at July soybeans here. This is where we were buying. I left two videos one yesterday, one today that I'd be buying here at 1229. And I put my stop here at 1195. I'm going to be a farmer for a while. So far the low has been 1224. So it's going to nickel below right now. It's just setting at 1233. This is July soybeans folks. The farmers haven't even begin to think about what they're going to be planning. Comes March or April. You see, this is just the beginning. What happened report day? We're going to let Rich Anderson tell us that. But what I like to do, this is July. It happens to be a favorite month for me. It's one of my big years back in 73, 74. 74 was not so good, but 73 was very good. Anyway, what I want to do now is this is July. So what I want to do is I want to show you the differences because now we have cash soybeans, which are the March and I want to get these up. And I haven't looked at this today, but I wanted to see if we got down to our 78.  Honest to God, folks, I did not. I did not draw this in until just now. They're basically the same except this spot spot beans right here. Spot beans made the 786. It missed this. Well, we already knew that. See, this is when the ABCDs don't work, but here's where the 786 was. Let's just try to blow that up so we can see what that price was. That was at 1207. And the low today has been 1203. So just like a July went four cents lower. So it did make both of them. Okay. Now on this one, you see we made the 1.618 expansion also right here. But we also on the cash beans. This is actually a good sign, folks. The cash beans came right down to the 78% level. And so far it's held what you'd like to see today. If you're long and like see them close up a beer about 30 cents, that's not going to happen. But the fact that they haven't collapsed us yet could be a good sign. And that's all we're saying that it may or may not be a good sign. This is a pattern that we like to see. It's coming in when it was supposed to come in. We've been talking about it for quite a while. So this is where we're watching. You can see here. We knew it was not going to work here. And then, of course, we came down even harder. So we're following it closely when rich comes on. We're going to be looking at some of the other things like corn and wheat and some other things like this. And this is my love my beloved sister. Hold on just a minute. Just a second here. Hold on. Oh boy. This looks like one of our old neighbor or one of our old relatives is just made a quick exit. So it's 97 years old. Anyway, still working hard at 97. Okay, let's move on here to the March soybeans. Get it out of the way. I want to get up here and go over a couple other things. Something very significant happened on a short term basis today, folks. I have to show you this because I got a lot of people were saying, how can you possibly do this when we got something like this going on? This is the crude oil, folks. Now this was crude oil in the middle of the night. Now here's, just remember, this is a 13 minute chart. But look at this, folks. This had so much going for it. Now we know that there's all kinds of stuff out there in the world. I didn't see this until afterwards because I was, as you can see, this came in really early in the middle of the night. So I wasn't there. But you'll notice that it did make this perfect A, B, C, D. I had several people texting me about this, that a perfect A, B, C, D here. I know this is all boring for you guys, you know. It's all I got, baby. It's all I got. There was your other one. And then, of course, you had the last three drive to a top pattern. There's drive one, drive two, drive three, right up in this area right here. And this is what's happened so far. But look at this market after it. There's, you can see the price. Look, we come down. We rallied up to a 61% retracement, okay, exactly to 61. And then you came down again. And now you keep dropping and dropping. Look, see where we are right now. Just watching Crude Oil. You'll notice that we are below the 78% level by a little bit. Let's see how much. Quite a bit, as a matter of fact. That would say that I would say that's too much. Well, 20 points is not. But let's see where we are with the 61% retracement here. Now, you remember, this is when they're shooting rockets red. There's the 786 right here at 7205. Below here, it's got major trouble. But how do we get a $3 break in Crude Oil when the midst of these dudes are over there fighting and dropping rockets everywhere? Does someone want to explain to me how that happens? You know why, folks? Because the news follows the trend. They really, really don't care about the news. That's why if you look at the patterns, I mean, look, it's a perfect ABCD. You had another ABCD right in here coming in. Exactly. Look at this. You got three things telling you that this 75 is going to be a little bit of a trouble. 75, 19. The high was 75, 23, 25. So that's a pretty good move. Now, I didn't take any of this because I was busy doing other things. I had a good day. But it's not like as if I knocked a ball out of it. Well, it had a good day. Let's put it this way. Is this true? Did I just see a trade at 35 in the beans? Hold on just a minute here. Oh, my goodness. I just started up. So let's just, well, if I were in this right now, if I were you guys, I'd put my stop right below here. So that way you're only going to risk four cents. And then if you yell at me, it's not going to be too bad. But right now we had a little bit of a rally here, which is potentially pretty good. Okay. Let's move back up here to a couple of other things that I wanted to cover here. The hog market. The hog markets down a little bit today. We went short those, as you know. They opened a dollar lower, but they've come back. They're still up in this area right here. We sold them right here, folks. So they're still in the profit zone, but there is a potential here because of this little move that we've had. I know you're going to get a little, a little bit of a little little hog farmer from Tarot, Indiana, but let's just narrow it down to the old A B equal CD. We used to ride hogs when we were kids there and tarot up there in Clinton, where my grandma lived. And there you see it right there. We could get up just a little above 74, which is only about going to have higher, but we will not risk that because our stop will be right above here. It's only risking 60 points in the hogs. So it won't be too much of a damage if you do, if you do take a loss. Now I want to get over and talk about treasury bonds because here was one that took off like a scalded duck today. I recommended everybody that, you know, we sold it up in here, tried to take a profit, and we didn't quite get there. We were looking for a profit of it. We took a profit here yesterday, of course, but then this one here backed off just a little bit, thought we were going to go higher. And so we ended up breaking even on that trade. But, you know, that's a pretty easy deal. If you want to work out about that, but we're watching here on some of these things. Okay. We got to take a little break.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn. And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com to try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, Educating Investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. With Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. Market Insights comes with a $1.00 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas. Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Hey, we have a caller from Northern California, the soybean capital of the western United States. Chris, are you there? Yeah, I'm here. It's not like you're in your Gulf dream of airplane. I need to turn off. There we go. I have a question for you. Go ahead. This morning, you felt that the soybeans after the report would drop a little bit and you put in a buy at a fib number and what I don't understand is how you knew that the report ahead of time before the report hit that they would drop and then after the report hit, you knew somehow, that's my question, is how did you know they were then going to go positive? Well, Chris, when you're a genius, my IQ happens to be 160, but I had to take the test to get it there. It's called a swag. A sophisticated wild agus, that's what it was. As you saw in the video, I was trying to measure 1.618. I was hoping for a very negative report, which we certainly did. The market dropped 30 cents and we bought it. Now we're breaking even and I don't know where it's going to go next. I had no idea whether it was going to rally or not. Believe me, I was sweating bullets from 1229 to 1224. I was calling my banker to see if I could make the margin call, but right now it's moving a little bit higher, which is good. I'd like to see a close above 1244. That's what would make me very happy. If it did that, if it closed down on the day at 1244, I'll be happy with that. But I did. I just knew numbers. No, go ahead. Thanks. Get back to the show. I said hello. Okay, thank you very much. Let's move on here. I would go through it again just for those of you that don't watch. This was the daily. We were buying here at the 1.618 expansion of this whole move. Came in at 1229. Remember, the March beans made the 786 level right here. They did make that. But this one was, as you can see here, this was 17 cents less, and so that means it was a little bit stronger. I don't know if this is going to hold or not, but if it makes a new load today, it's sign R for me. I'll wait till Monday. But we'll see if it can hold up. Anyway, that's what that's all I was doing was that type of a move. If I were doing it on the opposite side of the scale, if you want to look at other 1.618s that's come in handy, you can see this move down that we had here from your high down to your low. You see it goes right up to where, folks? 1.618. How many times does it hit it? It hits it once, makes a higher high, makes another higher high. Look how it makes another higher high. By 5 cents, give me a break. Come on, that's not the sign of strength. And then, of course, we started moving to the downside. Anyway, that's what we're paying attention to. I've got to get these charts ready for Rich because he's going to have a lot of information for us. We're going to take a look here at the March wheat now to see what it's doing today it was also hit with some bad reports but it stopped by Golly. It stopped right down here at the bottom two here at 90. We've rallied a little bit. Let's just look at it intraday here on a smaller time frame. You'll see we had a very good break. Yep, there's the break to the downside. Let's see if there's anything. Well, you can make it a lower low, which is okay, but now what's good about this and I'm watching this one also is we're already above the 382 of the next number. That to me is we've already conceded that so if we can get this one above this, that means the grain markets that comes in. It's right there right now. So a little bit higher in the wheat and a little bit extra buying. Maybe people are going to say, maybe this is okay. What's so ridiculous about this boys and girls? The farmers have not decided whether they're going to plant corn or beans. This is January. They don't start planting until March. Now if the price of soybeans is really high in March, they're not going to plant the soybeans, are they? So you got to try to anticipate that. How do you try to anticipate it? You shake their little shaker dice and roll it out and say, please dear God, give me sevens and leavens and no craps and then 12s. So that's all you can do. You can only figure out where the numbers are and try to buy them at that price and if you're lucky, fine. If you're not lucky, don't worry about it.  That's the only way you can win in this game. It's how well you play the game. It's how well you get up after someone knocks the Kizibis out of it. You remember the famous quote by Mike Tyson? Everybody's a great fight promoter until they get hit in the face. Well, that's pretty much the same way in the markets, too. You make a bad mistake in the markets. You're in trouble. The first mistake teaches. The second mistake kills and that's what makes it very, very tough looking at this. So that's the wheat market. Let's take the other big one. Farmers who've got to start loading up on this because this is corn. Let's get this up here. We'll just do the let's just do spot corn right here. That'll be March. We'll get up here. It's going to be a 440 something. Yeah, 447 here. Here's where we are. Look where we were here last year. We had corn at 510. We're at almost a dollar of bushel under this, folks. Now, here's here's the get this chart up here on the corn and someone's going to ask me. Why did I decide to do beans as opposed to weed or corn? And the reason for that is I talked about it yesterday. It's the fact that it was making all those numbers and that's really what we're looking at. Now, here's the long term picture. This is July. This is old crop. So this is really March corn. This is the corn that's in the bin. They're still trying to sell it. And as you can see here, if you looked at this, you would be able to see there's a possibility that we could do $4 of bushel another 47 cents to the downside. Now, whether that will happen or not. I don't know. This isn't the same. This isn't the same pattern that we had in the soybeans. See, that's why the soybeans look so much better. I hope I make myself clear on that because it sounds like mud and maybe it is. All right, let's take a look at soybean oil. If you remember a few weeks ago, well, just not a few weeks ago is about six or eight weeks ago. So what we're looking at. The soybean oil treated this quite nicely. And let's get this out of the way and it's rallying back today, too. Here is the soybean oil. That's where we were buying it right down here. Double ABCD's the market rallied all the way up here. 618 of this move right here, and now it's backing off now. This is really good, folks. If you want to if you want to buy this you can look at this on a 60 minute basis now because I did this yesterday. You wonder why I like this stuff. Hello operator. This isn't rocket scientists. Hello this. Oh my goodness. There it is right here. Didn't quite make the 61% retracement yet, but we're going to stick with the July beans and see what happens. Okay, now someone asked me, what are we going to do with July beans? We're going to watch them real carefully and I'll tell you what my game plan is if it works. Okay, let me get it up here and hear the hero that July be there. July beans are now up a little bit. Hey, this is looking good. Alright, I and I better not do this.  Zippo, I better be quiet. You know if you got lucky like this and this could be something like that and we don't know whether it is or not. The fact that it started in the right direction great, but we got rich Anderson coming up and he's going to tell us what's going to happen.<PHONE_NUMBER> The Gold Report As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, The Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-Bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute Webinar Archive he just hosted Forex Strategies and Fundamentals What is Behind the Tiger Forex Report? For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day Moneyback Guarantee if you're not subscribed. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com Educating Investors On the line, Rich, how are you doing, buddy? Doing great, doing great, Larry. Tell me how various was the report? Start off with beans. Well, I mean they they basically they some people are surprised they're not a lot lower. You know, the thing that is is so it's south of me I was on back the Wednesday before Christmas and you know, we were expecting rain to start coming into Brazil at that point conversation had been about the problems in Brazil because of the lack of rain. Well, they got plenty of rain in the next 10 to 14 days and that's taken that off the table. So, today you know, they they recognize that the beans are going to be down a little bit in Brazil but they're going to be up as much or more in Argentina and Paraguay where they're getting really decent rains. The yield estimates for the beans were left relatively the same. The real problem is we need to we need to be selling something but the world stocks, you know corn was up 12 million metric tons and up 10 million from the December report but 12 million from what the trade was kind of guessing. The beans were up you know, less than a half a million metric tons from the December report but the trade was expecting to be down about 3 million metric tons. So, it's all about expectations versus what comes out and then we was up a couple of metric tons for the world ending stocks from what the trade had expected. But on our U.S. ending stocks I mean the trade nailed it they're very close on the soybeans but the corn was 50 million higher than they expected and it's higher 30 million higher than the December report so there's nothing to be happy about. Now we're going to have to find a value level and I suspect we're going to find that value level in the next day or two and then there'll be a reaction and then there'll be a retest of that value level and then we'll start to look into what the farmers are going to plant and right now if you pencil out the profitability you tend to plant more beans than corn we're going to I mean the world is being taken care of by South America so we need to get back into the equation probably the best thing we have going for us Larry is Argentina they have a lot of beans to sell but the farmers aren't willing to part with them because that's their inflation heads that's kind of like somebody in the United States owning gold and the government will give them a tax break to sell those beans because they need the the currency I mean they got a problem down there as far as inflation goes but the way we've been spending money we're going to have a problem up here out of the problem without inflating our way out of it to pay off the debt Rich tell me about the cost of production on the corn we've got to be pretty close to this we were at 610 a year ago now we're at 440 this has got to be hurting these farmers that's why they can't plant corn because they don't make any money if they harvest the crop is that right? it's more than that farmers are like small business people they're going to have to go into the operating loans so I'm going to have to go into my banker in the next week or two to extend my operating loan for this year and I have to show them this how many acres I'm going to plant this is my cost of production and this is what the price is now now as we all know the price it is today it's going to fluctuate but you still got to use today's price when you go down and sit across the table from the banker that's kind of the way the world works and of course interest rates are higher now than they were a year ago not as high as they were two or three months ago but they're still higher and that hurts small businessmen and farmers are small businessmen I talked to my some of my operators yesterday and they were talking about the same thing but University of Illinois they put out their paper and compared to soybeans to corn in the northern part of the state the southern part of the state Iowa would be different Minnesota would be different South Dakota would be different but still the costs are down some but the price is down more you know and that's the problem some of the things are still using the Anderson National Bank there in Hitchcock, South Dakota there are no banks in Hitchcock there are no banks in Hitchcock the banks in Hitchcock used to be was sold to somebody for $7,000 and he turned it into a bar and was very successful for many years and then had a fire Rich was going away about 30 years ago folks Rich said my friend Jake Rosman went to go look at this cattle feeding operation what city was that in South Dakota Rich, do you remember that little town I probably in Oneida that's right because the Beach Boys had a chance and they said well we don't know so they sent Jay and I out there did you join us there for that I think so they had a Fourth of July party they had a big celebration this summertime and they have the steak fry where they buy new pitchforks and put the steak in the end of the pitchfork yeah that's for sure I remember when we were looking at this the guy that penciled it out the accountant he told Mike Love he said look this is a no brainer they are asking $4 million for the crop and the land and everything he said this is a no brainer of course cattle prices were real cheap back in the mid 80's and didn't end up not buying it but boy it would have been a big winner for the fun things we did through our lives that's for sure anyway buddy I really appreciate you giving the feedback any particular thing that really lights your fire in this report that you say hey this may be something there's nothing yet what we have to do now is wait for the the weather to become a concern in the US and believe me unlike when we first started trading in the 70's there's two weather markets which we've gone through and that's a settled story now and now it will be the developing one here so we'll have the egg outlook report by the the government in February and that normally brings about the retest of the lows of value and then once the farmer starts putting his money in the ground the grain prices tend to go up I've said that for years and that's kind of how it works so it's going to probably be kind of boring but there's a pretty big short so it won't take much and all of a sudden they can light a fire for a short coming rally but any story that will have length that's going to be that's going to be in March back in December natural gas caught my eye there seems to be unwillingness to be a carrier of a short in natural gas I talked to a cash trader last week and he bought it the day before and the next morning he had about 25% gain and he took profits now this isn't a cash market, not futures and by the afternoon it was up another 40% it can't move very fast in the pipeline hey listen brother take it easy happy new year to you and Lisa we'll have you on again soon okay Rich Anderson folks Anderson Capital Management I think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave the Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days at TFNNN.com educating investors are you ready to take your trading to the next level introducing Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter Market Insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out Market Insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results Market Insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand TFNN educating investors Biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade LABU or LABD Directions daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs Visit DirectionInvestments.com slash Biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact Direction Shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ okay folks I want to go through the soybean meal Rich had to go but one of the things that we talked about privately of course we chat just about every day but the fact that this particular level right here folks this is an incredibly very soybean report and this is only down to less than $1 under today's action $1 in fact is it at $362.20 it's up on the day so that's not a bad thing but one of the things that Rich pointed out was the commitment of traders Rich follows that for me because I don't quite understand it but this is one of the most bearish commitment of traders in other words the commercials are heavily long okay and the speculators are heavily short and when that usually happens it's very significant. Now just looking at this chart I want to go through this together because I didn't do it on the meal I did it on beans and everything else but I want to get it up here so you can see it this is what you're looking at when you're just watching these things the little function that I put in here draws these in we'll just leave that in so we can see it real easy but as you're looking at this right now you are seeing a three drive to a bottom pattern there's drive one there's drive two and there's drive three now we have a higher high it doesn't make any difference you've got lower lows now all we want to do now is to see how close we are to some symmetry that might line up and we're not close at all I can tell you that right now because that doesn't happen until way back in February but the fact is that it made this number right here does make this we just turned positive on the day in the soybean meal folks stop and think of that I mean let's look at this on a on a little smaller time frame look at that look at that rally we've rallied 800 bucks that's a hadn't even made new highs yet well we did and then back off but that that's a big thing I think maybe not anyway if you're in the trade you put your stop at break even and you know roll the dice you know 44 oh boy that's good look we got up here on the soybeans we got up to the 50% folks I'd like to see him close they close in a little bit here but I'd like to see him close they're above the 3A2 which is a good sign you know that's all I can tell you the caller that you know Chris called in happens to be one of my one of my soul mates pretty much he's got always got my back and he's he was giving me try to give me an accolade but frankly Chris we just got flat out lucky you know luck is where preparation meets opportunity is Louis Pasteur said so anyway where luck is where perspiration and inspiration come together Henry Ford anyway what we do from here remains to be seen but I have a game plan I don't know if it's going to work or not but I am I've got it because these things have turned into if the commercials are correct and the specs are wrong you're going to see one heck of a long rally because looking at this daily chart remember folks this is 100% protein here well the soybeans are 80% is meal 20% is oil and oil has already been the strongest I'll bet you oil is the strongest today too let's just let's just get up and take a quick look at it again I think we had it here there it is right here it's already up on the day look at this see oh not quite no it's already coming back pretty good but there was see where was yesterday's it is up on the day yeah there's yesterday's low we took that out and now we're above it so we're up on the day now and you know in fact is all this get back off to was a 50% of this move right here that's it right there so that's all it could do so far so whether that means much I don't know but looks pretty good it's better than setting here with a 15 set loss so now you put your stop at break even and then you don't have to worry about it too much the main thing here alright now we have to switch over to the stock market someone said a question about the old famous stock that everybody loves to hate and that's Tesla I don't know anything I don't anything about electric cars I don't trust them I don't trust a car that you can hear louder it is the better the car is okay just get this up here here's one we've been waiting for let's get this up here and we've been pointing this out for quite some time we had this nice pattern up here this beautiful one three five remember we pointed out you had a lower tops that means it's in a downtrend you can see just drawn them in like that they sometimes go above it but they go above it for very short and then they back off so there's lower tops there's no question about that and where are we coming to right now boys and girls let's just draw it in because we should be at the old magical Mr. Fibonacci oh we're below it so that's a bad sign 220 was a number we're at 219 right now so let's see what this is doing here in today because it had a pretty good rally at one time I believe oh then it gave it back up okay so that's really doing very little so it's not much of a problem so we're not going to worry about that and then one other person wanted to ask the question about Boeing Airlines we'll get it up here they beat that stuck up quite a bit over and over let's get here we'll look at the hourly last I checked it was 228 and dropping ooh it is dropping yeah there we go there's where we were here see there last time we checked here it was 228 right in here there was a 382 it misses it here by about a dollar and now we're hitting down and you can see here this is just an hourly charge so let's go to the daily and we'll put this up here and take a look and we're almost at the old 61% retracement of this whole move folks that started back here on the lunar eclipse of the 27th of October a day that will live in infamy in the Pecevento household because I fell asleep at the wheel as the old country in western says so anyway we'll make it all back one of these days and well little by little anyway this is what we're looking at here in Boeing big gap this is when the door flew off and gotta be careful of those airplanes that's absolutely for sure all right now let's move on here someone else had a question about apple mr. Appel who's down by the well let's get it up here and I think that's still holding up pretty good is it down today nah it's up on the day it's doing nothing well it's had a pretty big break here from the high let's just well we haven't seen this well did we make a 382 in this whole thing boy if we did there's trouble in river city whoa whoa oh there silver the lone rangers said look at this boys and girls yesterday's high was three deuces 382 187 was it that's it so hasn't done much today but this is what we're looking at here today so let's pay close attention to that any other questions you might have it's 877 927 648 and let's move on here and we'll just get out of this layout here I want to save this for this weekend and then get my regular page up so we can see what's going on and we'll keep these one thing at a time and see where we are okay we're almost at something very significant here maybe maybe not we'll take a look here here is the as we're speaking now as we're speaking now here we are this is the Dow Jones with the big break and if you like these numbers there's two hours of trading so you can certainly do what you like but you'll see that we are looks like we hit it not quite there's a number right there at 37410 so that's where you should be selling it and the stop would have to be above here you got a risk it's a powerful point on this if you're going to do it that way so that's what I would be paying attention to okay so oh someone has a question about the gold let me get this up here the gold was a little disappointing because we thought it was going to go down and we thought it going to make 2020 but 2002 let's get this up here see this is where we thought it was going and it changed its mind you see here once we didn't get below here you know there's where all our targets were but it didn't do anything but let's look at it here when we get back we're going to take a really close look at this gold okay live every day in an attitude of gratitude if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci open newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years 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sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV that's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV okay folks here's gold over the last six weeks there was our high here where we were up a hundred and some dropped a hundred and some dollars in 12 trading days about 140 bucks yep easy that and then we rallied up to the 78% level just gonna try to show you where we are folks you see we missed the what the 78% level now we made lower highs this is what we were shooting for we thought we were going to get some ABCD here and we still might all we've had today is this rally from 2020 2017 all the way up wow we got that high 2067 wow rallied 50 dollars boy that's a big big rally let's see when you're doing other things you don't get to see everything oh look at this high today 2067 right on the money how did I miss that one let's blow this up a little bit here that's a trouble when you're looking down a one-way street you miss some things there was a move down here we thought was going to go a little lower but the expansion number up here looks like it was a perfect 1.27 there it is right there exactly 127 of this move right here so what's do what's happening next okay here we drop from 67 down to 45 we drive 18 bucks that's a harmonic number I'll lay a 3 to 5 that that low right there was a 382 offer there let's just see if I were a betting man and sometimes I am sometimes I'm not we'll get to take a look at it just clean all this up a little bit here don't share this with anybody boys and girls please this is a top secret stuff and there it is right there to 382 went a little bit below it so right now what you want to be watching is if we get a 382 to the upside because of that big monster 61 percent retracement here I'd be ready to get ready to see if this thing is going to move a little bit lower list folks everybody take the day off on Monday I'm going to give everybody a holiday just the kind of guy I am we'll see all on Tuesday our guest will be Jeff huge of alpha insights so live every day in an attitude of gratitude and make God bless


signal the famous go farther gasoline invite you to sit back and enjoy another strange story by the whistler I am the whistler and I know many things for I walked by night I know many strange tales hidden in the hearts of men and women who have stepped into the shadows yes I know the nameless terrors of which they dare not speak and now for the signal oil company the whistler's strange story charming hostess Peter Courtney the third belonged to one of San Francisco's first family he was rich and popular and had a beautiful wife but few of his friends had ever met Mrs. Courtney she seldom left the Courtney's Atherton estate it's the big rambling house and the beautiful grounds appeal to Barbara Courtney she felt happy there and safe it was only an hours drive into the city but to Barbara it was like another world and nothing intruded except the newspapers and the mail the morning mail and newspapers placed at the breakfast table by the old butler Williams always gives you an uneasy feeling doesn't it bother yes even though they usually turn out to be advertisements and invitations even this morning anything interesting in your mail darling but the usual peer in the patients they still keep coming in spite of the fact that we never accept I've been thinking about that Barbara you want to go out more don't be ridiculous I despise social affairs yes I know but I've been talking to Dr. Cassner that can't be the psychiatrist not about me no dear of course not the subject came up accidentally I think we happen to have lunch together at the club yesterday and he got to talking about seclusiveness seclusiveness staying at home too much Dr. Cassner says it can become rather harmful not to see a lot of people don't like dashing around nevertheless I've made up my mind Peter when we were married you promised that we'd live quietly and we have for quite a long time but it seems so long no darling I didn't mean it that way it seems only yesterday that I was in that military hospital overseas being cared for by a very lovely nurse that's what I am doing this not a social item that's plain simple person and a sweet one too sweet to be hidden away but I like being hidden I'm really very shy yes I know I'll never forget that look on your face when they turn those newsreel cameras on us when we came back from Europe now admit I was frightened I realized for the first time that I married a very prominent man that reminds me our marriage anniversary on the 10th you know what we're going to do I know Peter what we're going to give a party a big one Peter now we'll invite everybody all my old friends but Peter it's out of the question I just couldn't do it I know nothing about entertaining you learn and you'll like it when you get used to it but I'm just not the time I'll take a chance on your Barbara you're a lovely gracious woman you'll be a charming hostess you stare at Peter and horror don't you Barbara because you can see that his mind is made up and a big party strangers publicity is the thing you want least in the world is in the days that follow you use every argument to make Peter give up the idea but he does right ahead with the invitations and plan and one evening a few days before your anniversary when he comes home from his office in the city he presents you with something it's your anniversary present to wear at the party a pearl necklace of Peter I know that pearls are for the 30th anniversary but I didn't want to wait 25 more years yet so Jen I'm so much jewelry and now this what can I ever give you in return the only thing I want is many more years as happy as the last one to be thank you dear you're very sweet by the way here's the evening paper they've given us quite a write-up on the society page okay to do we have to have that sort of publicity of course I wish they could have run your picture but I have a picture I know you must have some made dear why yes I I suppose yes I will sometimes it's in the second section oh what's the matter it sort of startled me to see my name in print for a moment I thought something was wrong no no nothing wrong but there is something wrong isn't there by the yes very wrong you've seen something in the paper something you don't like it all and the minute you're alone you read the item over and over again Myra Dorsey has been released from prison Myra Dorsey the nightclub photographer she hates you doesn't always has and she do anything to find you expose you because she didn't have your luck Myra was arrested as an accessory in the Tramonte killer while you got away you babe Dean the dark haired check room girl the one person that the police really want only they didn't look in the big Canadian hospital where a shy and by then blonde student nurse was in training the same nurse who later married Peter Cortes yes Barbara you know you must be more careful than ever now and at the coming party you must make sure there are no pictures that subject comes up again the day before the party when the Butler Williams speaks to you San Francisco society reporters on the telephone man she wishes your picture I'll talk to her myself Williams I'll take on this phone very well excuse me hello this is Mrs. Courtney I'm doing a story on your party Mrs. Courtney I'd like to run your picture I'm sorry I haven't a recent photograph well then perhaps you have an old one when you were a brunette a brunette this is no reporter babe it's your old friend Myra Dorsey you've made a mistake oh no you're the one who made the mistake when you let me take the prison rat you had come in and you made another one when you got in that newsreel and you feel sure after your honeymoon oh we see him in prison Captain Peter Courtney returns from Europe with bride only the bride was they deems with a dark hair bleached blonde ridiculous yeah yeah that's what I thought nobody recognized you but me but of course I knew how you'd look as a blonde because I had the picture picture what picture a flashlight I took a you and from on the night from on it was killed you wore a blonde weight babe I still have the picture oh and of course I have other things letters things like that enough evidence that I could have Mrs. Peter Courtney picked up by the police within 24 hours I see how much do you want well now you're talking like the old baby you're gonna pay me for every day I spent 15,000 dollars I'll be at your house at five o'clock tomorrow night no now don't come here why not I've been wanting to see the court and you say for a long time all right but face my recumb to the side door it's down the driveway I'll let you in my house the side door okay for 15 grand I can afford to be insulted I'll be there at five on the dot I'll watch for you from the next day of window what would you be wearing honey they don't give you a mink when you get out of prison I'll be wearing the only thing I've got a dark blue coat and hat even while you've been talking you've decided on your first step haven't you barred yes and that first step is to raise the money Myra demands by selling some of your jewelry the next morning after Peter leaves for the city you take your own car and drive into San Francisco but it takes much longer than you thought to raise 15,000 dollars doesn't it Barbara and it's dangerously late by the time you start home and you've got to keep the rendezvous at five with myra the traffic is heavy and even driving fast it's half past five when you arrive home then you see Peter's car realize that he's home that will make things even more complicated food bar you force yourself to enter the house to find Williams very excited as he meets you at the door Mrs. Courtney I'm glad you're here Mr. Courtney's been asking for you where is he Williams upstairs with Dr. Adam Dr. Adams Peter isn't ill. No ma'am they're with the woman woman what woman the poor woman was hit by a car right in front of the house a woman was hit by a car who is she do you know no madam I never saw her before but I don't think she's a friend of the family what makes you think that well for one thing she's rather poorly dressed oh what is she wearing very drab closing them very dark blue coat and hat in a state of panic for several weeks ever since your husband Peter Courtney insisted on giving an anniversary party then you learned that Myra Dorsey out of prison planned to expose you reveal your grim past and connection with the tramante killing unless you pay her fifteen thousand dollars and you're sure this is just the beginning of a long series of blackmail demand but now returning home to keep your appointment with Myra you'll learn of the hip and run accident in front of the house you stand terrified but strangely excited and pleased inside as you guess what happened even if Williams describes it to Mr. Courtney and I saw the whole thing that I was bringing him from the station fortunately Dr. Adams happened along with you minutes later we brought her in it and put her upstairs in the green bedroom Mr. Courtney is coming downstairs now oh Peter how is she I don't know she's unconscious he is yes a lucky Dr. Adams happened along perhaps I can help you don't know who she is we haven't the faintest idea but wait a minute didn't you have a bag with yes a large blue bag it was lying in the road beside her I put it in the living room there might be identification in a bag I love beer oh wait here comes the doctor the doctor what do you think in cushion and Lord knows what else do you know Mrs. Courtney don't you know why yes how do you do Mrs. Courtney was a nurse during the war that right well I'll be glad to do anything I can doctor anything that's fine I'll go back upstairs as soon as I've made phone call as the doctor goes to the telephone you hurry to the living room don't you Barbara go straight to the chair where you see a large blue bag you haven't much time but you open it quickly take out everything that will burn toss it all into the flames of the fireplace you work fast and a moment later you're glad that you have for you've just replaced the bag on the chair when Peter enters the room well we've got to find out who she is so we're relative is going to be notified where's the bag her bag oh yes this must be it here on the chair well what do you know about that but the matter and there's practically nothing in it nothing but a compact and a small coin purse but I'd better go tell the doctor there wait a minute I want to talk to you of course dear what is it what do you suppose Dr. Adams and him to do call the ambulance and take it to a hospital I suppose I wonder if it's safe to move her what do you mean sometimes it isn't in these cases I'm sure that if Dr. Adams thought he had unnerved friends at his disposal he'd prefer not to move her and he'd send for an X-ray man in the specialist well if money is any object I'll take you have everything Peter you're so generous but it was your idea talk to the doctor about it will you of course I will right away but first let me tell you something you're one of the sweetest kindest women in the world you smile at Peter as he walks away don't you he's so unsuspecting so far from the truth you breathe easier realizing that you'll be able to give my of the money and tell her the letters and all her evidence against you has been destroyed a little later as the doctor comes up it looks as if things are working perfectly in your favor I've just had a talk with your husband Mrs. Courtney yes doctor I must say that you're both being most generous naturally we want to do everything we can that's very fine of you very I called Dr. McClain over in Berkeley an excellent man to be done as soon as you can with an X-ray man and in the meantime the patient can remain here yes now there isn't much for you to do just call me if there's any change very well doctor you can trust me yeah I'm not way to emerge in case when this happened here you can reach me at this number for the next hour yes doctor now the main thing is to let her have quiet don't disturb her unless she calls then becomes conscious you may be in great pain give her a hypodermic and this solution you know how for certainly good as you experience is a valuable asset never know when it's going to come in handy that's so true doctor with a few more instructions the doctor leave you look at the hypodermic can toy with an idea in the back of your mind to weigh out isn't it Barbara hypodermic you know how to use it to settle everything don't you but you reject the idea almost as soon as it comes to you know surely you won't have to take such an extreme measure a few moments later Peter calls you darling don't you think it better get dressed yes getting late don't tell me you've forgotten about the party but surely we can't have the party now it's too late to do anything else don't worry we can handle this I've been working like a dog we've arranged powder and cloak rooms downstairs the guest won't have to come up to the second floor with Peter the poor woman and noise it can't be heard upstairs we aren't going to let the guest know that anything is wrong Peter I don't see how I can go through with this party I'm terribly tired almost ready to paint darling I'm sorry why didn't you rest during the day and that reminds me William said you were gone all day why yes to tell you the truth I drove up to the city good Lord on the day of the party why what was stupid of me but it's the last minute I I found I didn't have an anniversary present for you and you wanted to get me something and you poor darling but where is it with what Peter the present I want to see it all it isn't ready yet Peter you'll see it later and I'm sure I love it say look at the time I've got to get downstairs in your confusion you'd forgotten the party hadn't you bother but it doesn't matter now my response you but you have everything under control as long as you're sure you'll be the first to talk to her when she regains consciousness yes for the present you feel quite safe then you see Williams approaching accompanied by a tall gaunt looking woman this is nurse Phillips this is coffee nice so that I don't understand a doctor Adams had me sent out from Palo Alto I came as soon as I could were you excuse me and sit me with him and where is the patient of it in there and there I understand you don't know who she is no we don't she'll probably come around soon I'll find out who she is and notify the police no don't do that but why not Dr. Adams said to give her a hypodermic I have a solution well I'm in charge now Mrs. Courtney and I know Dr. Adams instruction now you run along and get ready for your party oh you will bring me the hypodermic and solution Dr. Adams that's with you oh yes yes I'll bring it to you right away even as you realize the helplessness of your position for the arrival of nurse Phillips you begin to plan again don't you Barbara it won't do to let anyone else be at my side when she comes to will it and you're determined that there's only one way now to stop the answer is simple isn't it just a few drops of the deadly poison the gardener uses on your road you slip away from Peter and the party guest long enough to add the deadly dosage to the solution given you by Dr. Adams few moments later you're back upstairs here oh Mrs. Courtney and here's the hypodermic and the solution fine I'm glad you're here to administer you know it's been so long for me I'm afraid I've forgotten all about this sort of thing well I'll take care of it Dr. Adams said right away he seemed quite insistent I said I'll take care of it Mrs. Courtney right away now please go back to your guest after all it is your anniversary you should be enjoying the party with your husband yes I should you know it's so reassuring having you take over I do believe I can enjoy the party now yes Barbara you go downstairs join the guest and your husband you're safe now aren't you much later Peter manages to get you alone for a moment darling I broke away from and I just to tell you well that you're a great success a completely charming host I'm so glad you think so Peter and under such trying conditions yes excuse me madam sir yes William the doctor Adams is here all he's out in the for you let's go dear please don't be upset madam but I have the feeling that everything isn't as it should be I think hello Dr. Adams Mrs. Courtney I'm I'm sorry well there's anything that happened Dr. Adams unfortunately yes you don't mean yes Mrs. Courtney's is a patient he's dead oh I'm so sorry she died before Dr. McLean and I got here how tragic this isn't it however I was sure from the first that she didn't have a chance she didn't know Dr. McLean agrees with me now you go back to your party we're going to take care of everything very quietly the guest won't know that anything's happening come along there you did all that you could yes yes Peter I did all I could there's nothing left to do now during the summer months ahead cars take quite a beating what with long fast vacation trips in addition to frequent weekend outing that's why now is a good time to get your car in shape by making sure that all wearing parts are freshly and properly lubricated for the chassis that means a signal double check loop job we call it double check because signal dealers check each lubrication point not just once but twice to make double sure that not a single part is ever overlooked perhaps it's also time to look after those points on your car which need attention twice a year or each five thousand miles such as transmission and differential front wheel bearings and shock absorbers you'll find signal dealers are experts at these and many more upkeep services after all signal dealers are independent business men who have a personal interest in pleasing you this conscientious service plus fine quality signal products are just two reasons why cars run so well and lasts so long when service regularly by signal dealers signal signal signal gasoline your car would go far with the gasoline well Barbara you're certain that you're in the clear now aren't you're sure that myra the one person who could identify you with the killing of the racketeer Victor Trimonte years ago is eliminated dead now you can continue fooling the police as you have for years as Mrs. Peter Courtney it seems strange doesn't it to have myra struck down by a car near your home and you managed to dispose of the contents of her bag in the fireplace before anyone could see but it's over now also the very successful party the next morning at breakfast Peter greets you with a newspaper you smile realizing that you're no longer afraid of newspapers and photography good morning darling the rest well I was tired when you had a right to be what a party I told Williams not to let any calls disturb you you had quite a few phones been ringing constantly oh my big success darling are you it makes quite a story on the society page listen I'll read it to entertaining 200 guests is no easy job under the best circumstances but few hostesses have been confronted with the situation Barbara Courtney found herself in last night with a gay party going on downstairs she had the added responsibility of an uninvited guest in an upper bedroom a victim of a hit-and-run accident near the Courtney estate but mrs. Courtney a former nurse was equal to the occasion she did everything in her power to try to save the life of the fatally injured woman I only did what anyone would have done oh no dear you were most thoughtful mr. Courtney the police are here lieutenant police the police oh about the hit-and-run accident yesterday not entirely this morning huh sorry to intrude on you like this but we're here to make an arrest arrest yes your wife what are you talking about we've been looking for your wife ever since the killing of a man named from Monty six years ago Mara Dorsey told us all about your partner killing mrs. Courtney she also showed us some very incriminating photographs of you but Mara never again consciousness by Rodorsi wasn't unconscious she's in jail on a hit-and-run charge she got targeted because she thought you saw the accident and turned her in actually we face the license number you mean my row was the driver that's right a rented car my Rodorsi was the one that hit the unfortunate woman who died the woman who was identified at the coroner's office is Mary Benson of Burlingate Mary Benson that was the name of the young woman who failed to arrive to serve at the party please Barbara tell me this is all some sort of a joke isn't it no I'm afraid it is Peter horrible Joe one that I played on myself let that whistle be your signal for the signal oil program the whistler each Sunday night at the same time meantime signal oil company and the friendly independent dealers who help you go farther with signal gasoline hope you remember regardless of what gasoline you use you'll enjoy more miles of happy driving if you drive at sensible speeds obey traffic regulations and avoid taking chances you may even save a life possibly your own featured in tonight's story where Bill Foreman is the whistler Byron Kane Alice Reinhart Joe Gilbert Herbert Butterfield Herbert Lytton and Bill Boucher the whistler was produced and directed by George W Allen with story by George Adrian and Carol next music by Wilbur hatch and was transmitted overseas by the armed forces radio service the whistler was entirely fictional any similarity of names or resemblance to persons living or dead is purely coincidental remember to tune in at this same time next Sunday when the signal oil company will bring you another strange story by the whistler entitled a case for Mr. Carrington in which the heat and native passions of tropical Jamaica