Hello, everybody. I think we'll get started now. I wanted to recommend a book on the topic of theory and history. This will be a big surprise. The book on the topic theory and history is by Von Mises. It's called Theory and History. This actually, I recommend this book very highly. It's the last of the four major works of Mises. Remember, he had the Theory of Money and Credit in 1912, then there's Socialism, 1922, Human Action, 1949, and Theory and History. This is the last of his major works. And it's one advantage is many people find Mises rather hard to read. The Human Action, especially say the first 140 pages or so, is not exactly the easiest book you've ever will encounter, at least unless you're unlike most people. But Theory and History is a very easy book to read. At least it's easier than the others. So I think this is, if you find Mises difficult, this is a very good book to read. And it was also one that Friedrich Hayek thought very highly of this book. I remember he told me in 1969 how much he admired this book. So this is a very good book to look at. Now, I want to distinguish, when we talk about Theory and History, we'll be talking about philosophy of history. I want to distinguish two different meanings of philosophy of history. And these correspond to two different meanings of the word history. When we're talking about history, we can refer to particular events in the past, significant events in the past, say, we're talking about the history of Europe, the history of the American Civil War, what we mean, what events were taking place. We're talking about what the historical actors did in the things that were done in the Latin phrase, the race gesti, the things that were done. But we can also mean by history the activities of writings of historians who were writing about these events. So sometimes it's called historiography, writing of history. So if you could get, say, a book on the history of the American Civil War, which would deal not so much with the events of the Civil War, but would give you what various historians have said about it and what their different interpretations were. There is a book I would recommend. A book there is a very interesting one, I think, called The History of Historical Writing by Harry Elmer Barnes. It's not always reliable, but Barnes was someone that Murray Rothbard knew he was a rather eccentric historian. He had very controversial views on World War I and World War II, but if you're interested in the history of historical writing, that would be a good book, a good book to read. One story about Barnes, I'll just throw in, as you know from now, I like digressions. When I was in high school, I once called up Harry Elmer Barnes, who was fairly old at that time. I asked him what he thought of the 1964 election. That was the one where Barry Goldwater was the very right-wing candidate, was running against Lyndon Johnson. He said, as my old friend Henry Menken said, I think I'll sit this one out. Okay, so corresponding to these two meanings of history, namely the events of the past and the activities of historians in writing about them, we have two meanings for philosophy of history. Philosophy of history can refer to the view that there's some pattern to all of history. There's some meaning to the whole series of historical events. So in addition to the history of Europe, history of the United States, there is a meaning to the total process of history. Depending on how much time we have in the lecture, I'll say a little bit about some of these philosophies of history. Later examples would be the Marxist theory of history. There's a claim that there's a whole meaning or pattern to history based on the development of the forces of production throughout history, that this will lead from a stage of primitive communism to socialism as the forces develop. So this is claiming there's a pattern to all of history. Marx wasn't the only one who had a philosophy of history in this sense. Hegel had one very famously. Oswald Spangler declined the West. An example of a philosophy of history is anyone read Spangler. It's very much worth reading. Decline the West, that's very good. Another one, Arnold Toynbee study of history. So there are various people who claim there's a whole pattern to history and philosophy of history in that sense. It would be explained that. So you see how this corresponds to this history in the first sense. I just think the philosophy of history would be trying to talk about the meaning of historical events. Now corresponding to the second sense, which was the activities of historians, philosophy of history means an investigation of some of the problems and methods that the historian uses in trying to understand the past. So this doesn't at all assume that there's a pattern to all of history, but in this sense of philosophy of history, which is the one we'll be concentrating on in this lecture, we're talking about philosophical problems concerned with historical knowledge. What is the nature of historical knowledge? How is the historian able to know the past if in fact he is able to know the past? There are some people who question this, who are very skeptical. There was a philosopher, Jack Miland, who had a book, who's very critical of the notion of historical knowledge, but this is the sort of thing we're studying in this type of philosophy of history. Now the first point I want to cover in philosophy of history in this sense is how can the historian use praxeology in helping to explain historical events? Now you'll remember from my first lecture and from other lectures and readings you have, that praxeology is a science of human action. It deals with action as such, generality of action doesn't tell you about particular actions. It doesn't say people are now, you couldn't have a praxeological theorem that people are now attending my lecture. That's a particular fact. It isn't deducible from any of the praxeological theorems that any particular event takes place or will take place. So then the question would be, well that's the case, what use is praxeology to the historian? And one way in which praxeology is useful is that although the historian can't deduce particular events from praxeology, he can use praxeology to help him explain particular events. For example, if you look at Murray Rothbard's book, America's Great Depression, which came out in 1963. It's on the origins of the 1929 depression. What he does there is he applies Austrian business cycle theory, which is derived from praxeology. And this, because he knows Austrian praxeology, this gives him clues as to what to look at in trying to understand the depression. For example, in Austrian business cycle theory, Roger Garrison and others have covered this in their lectures. In Austrian business cycle theory, the boom starts because banks have expanded bank credit so that the interest rate falls below the, what's called the natural rate of interest, which is determined by time preference. So as money becomes available with a lower interest rate, this encourages investors to embark on projects that they otherwise wouldn't have. And then when the credit expansion stops, these projects prove to be unsustainable, and the liquidation of these projects is the depression. That's when the bank credit expansion proves to be is no longer effective. The interest rate returns to the natural rate as determined by time preference. So these malinvestments collapse. Now, if say Rothbard, when he, of course, he knew about this theory, so what he was looking for when he was trying to explain the depression was, he was looking for, was there an expansion of bank credit in the 1920s? And he found that there was. He argues in the book that the Federal Reserve system, largely under the influence of the Governor of the Bank of New York, Benjamin Strong, was engaged in a monetary expansion that caused the process that the Austrian business cycle theory is talking about. And you can see how the Austrian theory has guided him, because if he didn't have the Austrian theory, if he were just looking at prices, say just looking at price date, prices really didn't go up very much in the 20s. So if the, if the historian wasn't aware of the Austrian theory, probably wouldn't be looking for expansionary monetary policy. But because Rothbard's aware and makes use of this theory, he's looking for that and then he can say, well, even if prices aren't going up that much, we would think that otherwise they would have gone down. So he's guided by the Austrian, Austrian theory in, by praxeology in carrying out his research.  This will show you how old I am. I remember very well when the book came out in 1963. So probably most of you were not born at that time. Maybe some of your parents weren't born at that time. But I want, I remember it very well and I read it when it came out. And this is another book that Friedrich Hayek thought very highly of. He told me that he thought Rothbard had done a really good job in this book. Now, another example is where showing how the historian can use praxeology is in the brief account, finding the brief account of the decline of the Roman Empire that Mises provides in human action. And what Mises stresses there is that because of price controls imposed by in the late Roman Empire, this disrupted the commercial activity. There had been a very active economy, extensive commercial exchanges that were going on previously. But the price control really disrupted things so that production tended to be confined to the large estates, the latifundias, and the economy really regressed. It was no longer engaged. The worldwide trade greatly was greatly reduced. Used in this weakened, the Roman Empire couldn't adequately respond to the various invasions, whereas previously the Roman Empire had been able to overcome them. And here Mises was relying on a famous work by Michael Rostovsev, who was a Russian historian who had gone into exile after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. He lived in the United States. The book is called The Social and Economic History of the Roman Empire. So, here again we see Mises is applying, practically out of here, the basic point in economic theory, namely how wage and price controls can disrupt the working of the market in explaining a historical event. Now, one point to note is that just as the historian guided by praxeology will be applying Austrian insights to explain historical events, but remember, not all historians or praxeologists, historians who have other theories will be applying those theories to help them understand the past. So, this can lead to differences of opinion. For example, at the same year that Rothbard's Great Depression came out in 1963, there was another book that came out by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz called A Monetary History of the United States, and this book was much more influential on mainstream economists, my point of view, unfortunately, than Rothbard's book. But what Friedman was a follower, believed in the quantity theory of money, and what he thought was that depression had come about because the Fed really contracted the money supply drastically after the stock market crash. And he thought they're doing this had meant that what was sort of just a bad fall in the stock market became a major depression. So on his theory, he's looking for contractions of money supply. So you see, this is just the other way from Rothbard stressing expansion of the money supply in the 1920s. So Friedman and Schwartz are saying no, the important thing is the contraction of the money supply when the depression started. So you see here how the different theories guide the historian in looking for data in trying to figure out what happened. Rothbard doesn't think that the Fed did contract the money supply. He said, well, there was a contraction, but the Fed was just reacting to people worth drawing money from circulation. They weren't trying deliberately to contract the money supply. Here again, you see how the different theories guide what the historian is doing. Now, another example where different theories, showing how different theories affect or influence what the historian is doing, concerns the interpretation of fascism. Now, according to the Marxist view, which was the prevailing, probably prevailing view of fascism in the 1930s and 40s among historians, fascism is a stage of capitalism. In the Marxist interpretation, large monopolies will tend to arise in the capitalist system. And because of the capitalist system proves unable to cope with economic crisis and rising protests and strikes by workers. So there's a resort to an authoritarian system where leaders suppress the workers and regiment everyone under the control of a big business interest. And also in pursuit of markets in this Marxist view, the fascist government tends to follow an imperialist foreign policy. So in the Marxist interpretation, it's really the big business that's in control. This is the source of fascism. But Mises rejected this view as you might expect. In his view, he said, well, the Nazi system was not one that was dominated by big business. On the contrary, in the Nazi economy, the government was telling the businesses what to do. The government was really setting the prices and wages in the business people, although they in theory own their businesses really had to do whatever the government said. So they were really just government officials. They weren't independent operators. So it wasn't at all the case as the Marxists say that the it was the big business that was in control. So there was a book if you're interested in the Marxist view. There was a book by Franz Neumann called Behemoth came out Oxford, I think in the 1940s, probably the most influential statement of the Marxist view. And then a book if you want the Mises interpretation of fascism and Nazis, you should look at omnipotent government which came out in 1944. That's one of the best books I think on the history of 20th century. I think if I had to give one book on the interpretation of the Nazis and totalitarianism, I think I would recommend that one. The omnipotent government. So what I've said so far is showing how praxeology will help the historian because the historian can apply praxeology to help him explain concrete historical events. Now this is a more instance of a more general point, which is that Mises gives the historian will apply the results of the sciences in helping him explain events. And I give one example. I mentioned this in an earlier lecture also, but I'll give it again. Mises gives the example. He said supposing the historian was trying to explain the witchcraft craze at various periods in European history, say in late 16th century. There was widespread accusations of witchcraft in Europe. There were people put on trial and some cases burned at the stake because they were witches. Incidentally, in America, there was a witchcraft scare, but no one in America was ever burned for witchcraft. The witches were hanged and not burned. You'll sometimes see that people make that mistake. But supposing the historian was trying to explain what was going on in these witchcraft crazes. So Mises said, well, one thing that 20th century historian wouldn't do would be to say what was going on unless the devil was really in communication with these various women. And it happened to be an upsurge in their activities in this period. And he said, well, we wouldn't, this 20th century historian wouldn't do that because based on modern science, we don't believe in the people in communication with the devil in this way. I thought it was a bit odd that he picked this example because as it happens, one of the greatest 20th century historians of witchcraft was a rather odd character. Now, if I say someone's an odd character, you can be sure they're really odd. But his name was Montague Summers. He was claimed to be an Anglican priest, but there was some doubt whether he was really was one. But he wrote in his books on history of witchcraft, he took exactly, which were 20th century, he took exactly the view that Mises said no 20th century historian would take. He said, well, these people really were in communication with the devil. Now, of course, Mises would just say he shouldn't have done that. He was not acting as a good historian doing that. But nevertheless, he got exactly what he did do. Now, one thing about praxeology to returning to a point I made at the beginning of the lecture is that praxeology doesn't enable you to predict particular events. For example, we know from the Austrian business cycle theory that credit expansion, we can explain the effects of credit expansion, but we couldn't from just from Austrian business cycle theory deduce what, how much of an expansion, what these exactly these effects are quantitatively, what they're going to be or who would do something who wouldn't do something else. We can't deduce particular details from just from praxeology. So this of course raises the question, well, if we can't use praxeology, how is the historian going to explain particular historical events? Because after all, history consists of particular actions by particular people and historians trying to explain these. One way would be to agree with Henry Ford and give up Henry Ford said history is bunk. But if you don't want to do that, then you have a problem of historical explanation. So just as a matter of interest, Mises, as you know, was usually a very strong critic of the logical posthumist. Remember the logical posthumist said Mises was wrong in thinking that you can get genuine knowledge through a priori truth. Remember an a priori truth is one that you can know to be true apart from testing you just think about it and you see that it's true. So the logical posthumist rejected this, but Mises said praxeology consists of a priori truth. But he agreed with them that you can't get knowledge of contingent historical facts from just by thinking about it. A contingent fact would be one that might not have happened.  You might have gone somewhere else, be better off if you had, but that's not my problem, is it? So supposing we have something, so if a fact is contingent, if it might not have happened, then Mises, here he's agreeing with logical posthumist, he thought you couldn't deduce it from some general body of theory. You can't just think about someone say, well, he's going to be attending this lecture or he's going somewhere else. That would be something you could just know, just by empirically. So then again, the question is, well, how do you explain these contingent events? Now, one possibility, well, could we have historical laws that weren't praxeological, remember praxeological laws are a priori truth, we get them just by thinking about the concept of action or the action axiom. So supposing we can't do that historical events are contingent, they need not have happened. So could we have historical laws? And Mises says no, we couldn't. Why is that? Well, he says if there were historical laws, then they'd be derived by induction. So the historian would get a whole lot of events and then kind of study them to see whether there's any pattern in them. Is there any generalization can be based on amassing a great deal of historical data. And Mises, for various reasons, thought that, which I'll get into, I hope, thought that the historian couldn't do that. And one of the most important reasons Mises thought the historian couldn't come up with inductive laws, remember these would not be praxeological laws, they would be laws based on generalizations, just looking at data and seeing patterns. Well, he said that human beings have free will, that we always have a choice of action involves choice. So this if action involves choice where the actor is choosing alternative, this severely limits, if not takes away altogether the ability of someone to come up with historical laws because the historical actors have freedom in deciding what to do. He takes human choice to be an ultimate, what he calls an ultimate given. I'll mention my great friend, Father James Sadoski, used to have an argument for free will was, we wouldn't have the concept of free will unless we had it. I once mentioned that to another friend of mine, Bob Nozick, who's very good on quick response, and Nozick said maybe we wouldn't have the concept of bad arguments unless we had them. But regardless of the success of that particular argument, Mises took it to be an ultimate given that we have free will. Now, if we can't come up with historical laws, it doesn't follow from that that the historian can't explain particular events.  Because when we explain something, doesn't that at least most often involve subsuming this under a general law? Say if we explain why did an object fall, say if I were to drop this, why would it fall on the floor? I'm not going to drop it because it would ruin the rest of my slides. Not ruin my access to the rest of the slide, but why would it fall? So you would explain this by applying the law of gravitation to this particular event. So if the historian can't use general laws, then how is he going to explain particular events? Well, what's left without general laws? Mises answers that the historian can grasp the individuality of an action without using general law. So in general laws, we're saying how does a particular event fall under some word general pattern? But what the historian is doing is just trying to grasp the individuality of the act, trying to grasp what the particular is doing without claiming that what the act is doing falls under general laws. I'm not saying what the historical act is doing. How does this relate to other events? It's just grasping the individuality of the action as such. Now, he calls this method of grasping the individuality. We use the German word for Stehen, which means understanding, sometimes calls it specific understanding, specific as opposed to general. We're getting the individuality of the action. Well, I've said that a large number of times, the individuality action, but that really doesn't give you a really good idea of what's involved. How is the historian supposed to grasp the individuality of the action? Well, what Mises suggests is that the person who's acting, the historical actor that the historian is concerned with, will have certain values and beliefs on the basis of which he acts. And because we ourselves are actors, we're everyone acts, we know what it's like to have particular beliefs and desires. So we can, by attributing certain beliefs or desires to the actor, we can make sense of what the person is doing.  So we could explain what you're doing based on your beliefs and desires. So similarly, the historian can attribute beliefs and desires to historical actors, and that's the way he explains events. So what the historian is doing, he'll make what Mises called judgments of relevance about particular events. He'll say how there are various factors influencing the person, the historical actor. And the historian will, just by a process of sympathetic understanding, a specific understanding, he'll attribute beliefs and desires to a particular actor. So supposing as an example, the historian is trying to explain why Abraham Lincoln decided in, after he became president in March, 1861, he decided to reinforce the garrison for its sumter, even though he knew that doing so would probably mean that the fort would be attacked and the Civil War would result. So the historian could say, what beliefs and desires would the Lincoln have had that would explain why he did that? We could say, well, we know from his speeches and beliefs that he had, he believed that the Union couldn't be dissolved. States didn't have the power to leave the Union. He was a very strong nationalist. He wanted to promote American power. So if we attribute this, believed him, this can help explain why he decided to do that. So see here, the historian wouldn't be appealing to general laws. He's attributing particular desires and beliefs to Lincoln that would enable him to explain what's going on. Incidentally, you know what the manager of Ford's Theater said to Mrs. Lincoln the day after the assassination was, I'm sorry, Mrs. Lincoln, no ticket refunds under any circumstances. Don't put that in your notes. It won't be on the exam. Now one thing to mistake to avoid when I've been talking about this notion of sympathetic understanding, this does not repeat, not mean that the historian has to like what the actor's story has to sympathize with the historical actor in the sense of approving of what he does and taking a favorable attitude toward what he does. Say you're trying to explain Lincoln policy, and you say, well, Lincoln was trying to want a strong American national state. You don't have to think he was, if you're attributing that to Lincoln, you don't have to think, well, Lincoln was doing the right thing in that. And I mention this because one of the greatest philosophers, they arguably, the greatest contemporary philosopher, Saul Kripke, has in an essay, he criticized R.G. Collingwood, who had a view very like Mies. In fact, I may be getting to this later lecture, Collingwood was a British philosopher, and he had Mies' thought very highly of him, and he was somewhat influenced by Collingwood. But Collingwood had a theory like of a kind I've been explaining where the historian is trying to attribute beliefs and desires to the historical actor based on this kind of sympathetic understanding. So Kripke objects, he says, well, supposing historians trying to give an account of Hitler, wouldn't this lead to the historian was trying to get a sympathetic understanding of Hitler? Wouldn't this lead to the historian coming to like Hitler, coming to defend Hitler because he's trying to explain what he did? And Kripke gave us an example. There was a British military historian, David Irving, who wrote a book about World War II kind of from Hitler's point of view, which became very sympathetic to Hitler. So Kripke said, well, isn't this what's a danger in this method of specific understanding or sympathetic understanding? But you see here, I don't think that objection is right, because here what the historian is doing is attributing values to the historical actor, but the historian isn't adopting those values himself, the historian isn't making a value judgment of his own that these values are a good thing. The historian is engaged in a descriptive science. He's not making value judgments. And Mises says that history can be written in a value neutral way.  Now, one other mistake people make in thinking about this specific understanding for a stand is they think, well, if you're trying to understand someone's values and beliefs, then what are you going to be looking at? You'll be looking at what the person has said. You'll be looking at what he's speeches or writing. So doesn't this lead to taking what he says at face value? But it doesn't at all. The historian can still compare what the person has done with historical facts. You can point out that what someone said doesn't correspond to what he did. For example, say you're talking about Lincoln. You can say, well, if you say someone say attribute to Lincoln, the goal of freeing the slaves, you could say the Emancipation Proclamation really didn't do that. It was more of a military measure. So you could compare what someone says to what actually took place. And I mentioned, I have a note here, because I think there's an essay by me that's called The Treatment of Irrationality in Social Sciences, where this hasn't gotten as much attention as it deserves, where it makes the criticism of the great medievalist Ernst Cantorovitz. Cantorovitz was a German historian who later went into exile and taught at Berkeley. And he says Cantorovitz, in his great biography of Frederick II, takes at face value the statements in the Holy Roman Empire, say statements by the various emperors and other people. And he talks about the symbolism of these statements. And Mises Krzysztof said, well, he doesn't really ask, did these statements correspond to reality? Did they correspond to the actual political power politics of a time? So I put that in to show that sympathetic understanding or specific understanding require you to accept what the historical actor said at face value. Incidentally, when Mises is very significant, I don't think it's people drawn attention to this. Cantorovitz, you see, was in this particular book. He was really, it was very much admired by the German nationalists of the 1920s and 1930s. And what Mises was doing, criticizing Cantorovitz, he's really, in a way, attacking the German nationalists. It was one of the readers of Cantorovitz's book. Great admirer of the book was Hitler. Hitler thought very highly of this particular book that Mises is criticising. It's somewhat ironic that Hitler liked the book because Cantorovitz was Jewish, but he thought highly of it. So I think what, I just throw this in as one of my typical digressions, that what Mises was doing was really, in this passage, is really criticising a type of German nationalist history writing. Now, as I mentioned, Mises, in developing this notion, his notion of first-aing or specific understanding, was influenced by the British historian and philosopher R.G. Collingwood, Robin George Collingwood. Besides being a historian was also, and a philosopher was also an archaeologist. He was one of the leading archaeologists of Rome and Britain, but he's probably best known as a historian. So what Collingwood said, you can find this in a book that came out after his death called The Idea of History. It's edited by Sir Malcolm Knox, who had been one of his students, T.M. Knox. But what he said is that the historian, in trying to reconstruct the thoughts of someone in the past, is having the identical thoughts and desires of that person. So if, say, imagine a historian trying to understand what Lincoln's policy in March, 1861, if a historian is successful, he's thinking exactly the same thoughts as Lincoln. And when Collingwood said that, he meant that in a very extreme sense. It doesn't mean something like you're having qualitatively the same thoughts as Lincoln did. So say, imagine each of you is thinking about praxeology right now. What else would you be thinking about? So imagine each of you is thinking about praxeology. We could say you're thinking the same thing in meaning by that. The content is the same in each one of your mind. Collingwood went further than that. He said it's not only the same content, but it's numerically the same. It just is the same thought. So the historian is really, who's gotten Lincoln right, is thinking exactly Lincoln's thoughts. Mises didn't go that far. That view of identity is really something you find in the British idealist philosophy. But it's somewhat, as I say, somewhat extreme view. But that was Collingwood's view. And there were other philosophers and historians who wrote about first day. I just mentioned a few of them. They included German philosophers, Wilhelm Vindelband, Wilhelm Diltai, also, Heinrich Ricker, and the Italian Benedetto Croce. So there was a whole group of people. They didn't have identical views, either in the ordinary sense or in Collingwood sense. But a lot of people say in the late 19th, early 20th century, we're writing about first day and then historical understanding and Mises is in this tradition. Now, what about the people who reject first day and the logical positivists didn't say, okay, Mises is right. You know, we have to make special room for this kind of first day and specific understanding. They rejected what Mises said and what the people in this tradition said. And one of the most important of the positivist treatments of first day, and I wouldn't say this writer was a strict logical positivist, but he belongs in this group, was the philosopher of science, Ernest Nagel, who taught at Columbia. He was actually one of Murray Rothbard's teachers. Rothbard actually liked Nagel quite a bit, but he had a very important book called The Structure of Science. And what he said was, well, you can have this method of specific understanding if you want, but that might give you some idea of what was going on in history, could get some idea of why Lincoln thought something or other. But that doesn't give you any real reason to accept that what you come up with is true. All that you've got is some kind of story about what happened. The only way, according to the people who favor first day and of seeing whether it's true is just, does this seem to you to be right, say, imagine? And Mises, I think, would certainly admit this. Suppose you read some account of Lincoln's policy. So does this strike you as plausible? Does this particular attribution of motives and beliefs to Lincoln strike as a plausible one? And explaining what he did. If you answer yes, that's all that you have. So Nagel said, well, that really isn't scientific. That just depends on how particular people take something. It doesn't really tell you what's, give you a basis for accepting it. So first day may be a good way of generating hypotheses, but it doesn't address at all the problem of how testing them or verifying them or falsifying them. And what they said is what the historian is doing. Remember, this is just what Mises rejected. They said, what the historian should be doing is trying to come up with explaining an event through an appeal to a general law. The most important article in giving this view is, came out in 1942 by Carl Hempel, who was one of the, he'd been associated with the Vienna Circle and later taught at Princeton. He was one of Robert Nozick's teachers. Very good philosophy. Everyone, I recommend should read his book called Aspects of Scientific Explanation, which came out in 1965. But in his essay on the function of general laws in history in 1942, he advanced what was generally referred to, called the Covering Law Model. This is named given to it by another writer in philosophy of history, William H. Dre. And what Hempel said was, the way you explain, the way you explain an event is to bring it under a general law. So you would say, here's particular event, what general law applies here. And you explain the event by saying, this is an instance of this general law. And the problem with that, as I mentioned earlier, is that there aren't such general laws. So if you took that model, you really wouldn't be able to make a historical explanation. For example, supposing you're trying to explain why Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River in 49 BC, where he disobeyed the order of the Roman Senate not to do that. Well, we don't have historical laws of the form. Ambitious generals were faced with an order that they think detracts from their honor, will disobey it. We don't have such general laws. All we could do is explain the particular action that Caesar took on that occasion. Now, one thing I just mentioned, I discussed this a little bit in my lecture, one of my lectures on Wednesday, is historian also uses in carrying out specific understanding or first aid uses what's called ideal types following. This is the term that Mises took over from Max Weber. And here ideal doesn't mean perfect. It means something not found in the real world. It's ideal in the sense of not actually existing. But it's what you do in an ideal type is you take an exaggerated, you bring together certain characteristic traits of something like a personality type. So you'll have the ideal type of the bourgeois and you'll attribute certain traits to him using that ideal type can help you explain particular historical events. I gave us the ideal type for the bourgeois. This would enable you to explain certain acts by various people in the same late 19th century who were engaged in business expansion. So you say, well, there you use the ideal type for the bourgeois who was interested in making a lot of money or achieving a certain position through wealth. And ideal types don't have strict definitions. They're just assemblages of characteristics that can be met or not met to varying degrees. Now, Max Weber thought that one ideal type was the rational actor. But remember, Mises doesn't agree with that. Mises says, no, every action is rational. So according to Max Weber, it's only specific kinds of action, kind is rational, but Mises didn't accept that. Now, the last thing I see, we're about out of time, but the last thing I'll mention is that remember when I started the lecture near the beginning, I mentioned this notion of philosophy of history in the sense of trying to come up with some kind of general pattern to all of history. And Mises is very unsympathetic to that notion because he thinks that the dominant kinds of philosophy of history in that sense contravene methodological individualism. Remember, methodological individualism is the principle that only individuals act. So we don't have, we're talking about collectives. They act only through individuals. And Mises points out that the most influential of the philosophies of history violate this. For example, in Hegel had the notion kind of the world spirit or geist as some kind of independent entity that was acting. Marx has the forces of production as if this is some kind of autonomous entity developing apart from individuals. And in Spengler's theory, you have cultures which Spengler compares to plants, not industrial plants, but biological plants, sort of organisms that have early stages, growth and decay. So in all these cases that Mises rejects them because they violate methodological individualism. So I don't want to violate the constraint of sticking to the right time. So I'll stop here and we're out of time. Thanks very much.


Hey there, Psych2Goers! Before we begin, we would like to mention that this video was created with the intention of educating the community and supporting anyone that may be at risk of self-harm so that they may feel safe to seek help. As the topic of this video might be triggering for some, please be mindful in the comment section and help us make this a supportive and safe space for all. So, what is self-harm? Self-harm includes anything you do to intentionally injure yourself. There are six potential reasons why people self-harm. One, to feel something else. Oftentimes, when someone feels the need to self-harm, they're also feeling another strong emotion, whether it be anger, depression, or frustration. Physical pain, however, can be distracting. To them, the sensations of self-harm act as a temporary alternative to the emotional distress in order to avoid directly addressing the source. Two, to feel anything at all. Sometimes, though, someone feels so numb or drained of all feeling that they long to feel anything at all. According to the National Alliance on Mental Illness, self-harm temporarily feels a void and provides a sensation when someone feels empty, detached, or lethargic. The pain acts as a symbol of the emotional suffering that some are unable to experience. Three, to have a sense of control. A lot of anxiety and other symptoms of mental distress arise from feeling out of control over one's life. The choice to self-harm, however, is under their control. Feeling in the lead of one's own life and decisions is a comfort in itself, which may be why some make the choice to self-harm. This might make them feel in charge of their choices, their body, and even their life. However, this is a maladaptive coping strategy, which only serves to continue the disorder rather than healing it.  When someone is overwhelmed with feelings, the emotional release that comes from self-harm can feel a lot like relief. Despite any physical discomfort it might cause, the rush of hurting oneself can feel as cathartic as a hard workout. This may be why so many who self-harm once continue to do so. According to the Mayo Clinic, however, while self-injury can bring a momentary sense of calm and a release of tension, it's usually followed by guilt and shame and the return of the painful emotions. Five, it's a form of self-punishment. Unfortunately, some who self-harm do so as a form of self-punishment. They may believe that they deserve to feel the pain or that they've brought their own suffering upon themselves. Perhaps they hope that feeling physical pain will dismiss the emotional pain or that they'll become a better person by hurting themselves voluntarily. And six, it's a way to communicate feelings without words. Feelings are not easy to talk about, especially if you're having intense emotions like those that can lead to self-harm. For some, hurting themselves is a way of asking for help or expressing their distress without having to use words. For example, someone told mine.org, I've learned that, as my emotional needs were not being met, I use self-harm because I didn't know how to express myself or say what I needed or what I wanted. Do you relate to any of the reasons mentioned? If you feel like you or a loved one are at risk of self-harming behaviors, please don't be afraid to speak up and seek help. In our description box below, we've provided some resources that may come in handy, such as the crisis text line. Also, be sure to subscribe to our channel for more helpful tips and share this video with others. It might just save someone from hurting themselves. As always, thank you for supporting our videos and the Site2Go community. See you in our next video, and thanks for watching.


The first half, it wasn't identity for sure. The second half was, you know, I think they scored seven points in the second half. I think that's what we're trying to get towards too. We want to get off the field on third down. We want to make it hard for the quarterback. Want to make it hard for the run game, and when it's time for them on third down to try to get first downs, want to make it hard of just not a front, but on the back end as well. So I think we're going in the right direction. Can you get him off of a win? Does it take something attitude-wise to have the same kind of urgency? I don't think we didn't have a sense of urgency the first week. I think, you know, we just got beat. We got our play, we got our coach.  But this week here, we know it's a division game. It's another home game. Like I said, first, it's a division game. And this is how we kind of go in the towards one game at a time for sure. But it starts right here if we want to win our division. And like I said, we know what's up front with this team. They know us. We know them, and it's just who going to be the tougher team out there who are going to line up and play the hardest, to be honest. Has it changed planning or preparation at all, not knowing what their quarterback situation is going to be Sunday? Not at all, because as we saw from when they had luck at quarterback, we know that they kind of ran the same runs, going to do the same pass and whatever it may be. Of course, they're going to have some stuff we haven't solved. But, you know, it's the same team. It's the same thing that's been doing in the past. We know, since I've been here, it's been probably one of the toughest games that I didn't play, especially just up front. You know, them guys, they worked together good. We got to come with our hard hats on, ready for a physical game all four quarters. We know them guys, no matter if they down and what, they're still going to try to run the ball. And that's something that we got to stop this weekend. That's the run game attacking. We know they're very physical in the run game. Like I said, that's something I think, and I know that we'll be up the challenge for two. You're doing this week's potential for a left down. What do you say to the guys? I mean, I think the guys know that. I think, especially after the feeling of week one, I think we're going in the right direction just with our mindset, each and every day, not just in the game, but in practice. You know, we have to make practice rep to game reps. We have to take that mindset, like each and every day, that we're going to be, we preparing to win a game. And like I said, we don't win game on Sunday. We win game through the week. And I think the guys have that mindset now, and they know that, that, you know, when we get to take the field, like today, we have to have our best winstay practice leading up to Sunday. When you give those feelers. Nah, like I said, it's from the heart, you know what I mean? I don't, you know, it's for the game. My focus on winning, my focus on doing my job, you know, that thing that just come natural, whatever comes to heart, that just, when it comes out and go to the team. The energy is always there. I think the guys are always up. I mean, not just because of who breaking it down. I think because it's game day, we got another opportunity to take the field with our brothers, you know, to go to war. And I think, like I said, the energy is always up no matter who breaking it down. You know, I don't think I never have to just, you know, give a little more ump to it, I guess, as you say, but I think just the mindset is game day. It's time to go win a game. That's just a message right there.


Okay, good God. Now instead of toilet paper, we have a national printer ink shortage. Really? That's a thing? I just got another YouTube short done, and after our walk, I have... Oops, let's see how many steps do I have. 67.11, what, three quarters of the way to 10,000? So yay. So if by the time the Super Bowl is over, I don't have 10,000, then I'll do laps around the house, or maybe we'll go out for a walk again. I don't know, we'll see. I got all the painting papers ironed, and the YouTube short before it is filmed. We got a sneak peek. There you go. Gotta watch the short. Computer is off, and chili is warming. Dishes are done, laundry is working. I need to go start getting the appetizers ready, so I'm gonna go do that. I'll be back. Okay, so I didn't film any of this afternoon because we were having too good of a time, but we had three of the four kids come over, and we ate some really good food and had a really good time and some really great conversations, tried a couple of new recipes of things that people approved of, and the chili was good and not too spicy. Yay. Brian took some extra home. Yay. He made some cornbread, which he had brought over, and that was really good. And so he took some chili home, but we kept some of his cornbread. Yeah, so it was a good time. I am short of my 10,000 steps by about 1500 or so steps. So despite the fact that it's after eight o'clock, I think Bob and I are gonna go on a quick little walk a couple of times and get the extra steps in.  I had coffee, so I am wide awake. So I still have to do today's journal pages, but that's okay because, yeah, I also got my order in of some Strathmore toned tan paper. Now, I have had and do use the toned tan drawing paper. I love it. I have toned gray and toned tan. I knew the toned paper came in drawing paper. I didn't know any of the toned series as a paper came in mixed media paper. And it is thick. It is 184 pound mixed media paper. Toned tan and toned gray I knew about. I had before. I got one of each of those pads. I want to say I've heard of the tone blue, but I never had it before today. So hold on. So this is toned tan. This one is toned gray. Only the exciting one for last. This is toned blue. But where the heck have I been that I didn't know they have? Are you ready? Toned black. Black. And again, 184 pound. It is thick.  I'm going to make some journals out of it. We're going to do some experimenting with it. I'm excited to try some of the other work I've been doing on the paper with a colored background. So look for videos on that coming up soon. I'm going to go get some shoes on and get some more steps in before I can sit on the couch and relax for the evening. I'll be back. Good morning, happy peoples as they say on the summers in Alaska channel. It is just after 10 a.m. and I'm headed over to Michaels and Staples. I've got to get steps in, but I also have a couple errands I need to run. So I'm going to go do them and then go home and do smart. So I will be right back. Okay, so I got out my Zetter book binding punch and I turned all of the paper, the mixed media paper that I got in the different colors and some white watercolor paper and then a couple pieces of chipboard into a journal.  You get the idea. So we've got the tone tan tone gray tone blue and black tone black mixed media Strathmore mixed media paper in here. And when I was getting out this other bind it all. I have an old Zetter bind it all. I had two different kits of book binding tools, different tools in each kit. And I don't know why I did. So I took the other one apart and put everything in here in this Zetter kit.  It's a cute little zip case. It comes filled with some of these tools like all of these tools were already in here. I added the thread and some book binding needles that were in the other kit that I found. I also added this pokey tool that I found from the other kit, but the Exacto knife spare blades and the tape measure came with this kit along with the scissors. They wire cutters and the pliers. There's this like bodkin type. You know, I don't know why this is in here, but we're going to leave it in here for the month for the minute. And yeah, so we took the two and made it into one. I'm going to put the old little envelope style case in the purge box for next month. And I found two punches I didn't know I had. Hang on, I'm corner rounding chipboard and different things for journals. I do have a big like stand punch. I got it on clearance from Canvas Corp when they were clearancing out a bunch of old stuff from the companies they acquired. And it works really good. But I forgot completely and I have a couple of creative memories corner rounders, which work really great for single layer papers. I forgot I have these completely. These are the Zetter corner rounders. These do multiple layers of paper, really thick paper. They do a really great job. Their metal punches are very heavy. I don't know why they were in the binding box because I completely forgot they were even over there. So I don't know. I think they should be in a box that says punches, don't you? So they're in the box. It says punches. Holy cow. I want to say too that when I was cleaning out the trash part of these other bind at all where the little punch punches come out, the waste punch waste. I was going to throw it away and I thought how interesting would that be mixed with some map medium. It might be pretty cool. So I am going to save it for the minute and we'll see. I also, when I was out today for very inexpensive, I got an A6 planter cover and I updated my coupon binder. Yes, I do still coupon. Yes, I have a coupon binder. This is an A6 planter cover. It came with some things, but I took most of them out. I put, there's card slots on this side, but I put a small pad of paper. This is one of the plastic dashboards that came in here and I put some paper clips and a binder clip on the top in case I want to clip coupons in. I have some clear plastic pockets that I have labeled into different product groups or this one's this store to put the coupons in. And then that first one is all food things, non food household things. In fact, household is upside down. That's pretty funny. I didn't even notice until just now. There's another dashboard and then we have office and other coupons. And then in the back, I cut this piece of chipboard, put a binder clip on top so I could put it in one of the back pockets. So I have like a dashboard that I can put the grocery list on to cross things off and write things on when I'm at the store. And a pen, constantly without a pen at the store. So now everything's in one place and that will make it much easier, I hope. Hey, guys. It is just after 1.30 Tuesday, February 9th, I think. I spent the morning on YouTube live. Oh, bright sun. Probably the last of that we're going to get for a few days. We have a storm front coming in lunch. I got working on a new painting exercise. That's what I can say. It has to do with the class that I'm teaching in June. So I'm working on doing my part of the painting exercise and creating some images of work that I can share in a Facebook group that will be coming. Anyway, we might be getting some snow. Not tomorrow, but Thursday through Sunday. We're getting a cold front with possible snow. We'll see if that actually happens or not. But in the meantime, I need to get steps today. We really don't need a lot of groceries. We could probably wait until like Tuesday to get groceries. We are almost out of a couple of things that normally are what we would go get like on Saturday. But if it really does snow, I don't necessarily want to go out in the snow to the grocery store. So I'm going to go walk down to the grocery outlet and pick up those couple of things and then come home. So I'm cleaning out said salvage bin, which I talked about earlier. And I'm replacing what was in that bin before with all of my jelly printing and stamping tools, which I think will be better than having them in a closet over there because they're easier to get to and use. Most of what was in the bins is now going to be in the small bits bank or on top of the small bits bank until I get it used up or decided I don't want to keep it anymore. But there's nothing like going through the bins. Finding a set of stamps. You did never ever know you had. I don't know where I don't know where this came from. I stuck a label to the back of it, but it's a long fond stamp. I have no idea. So I'm going to put it in the purge box. I don't know where it came from.  So I have to take care of that and relabel some things. I also had a whole bunch of these, which I picked up at one of the art salvage shops. And I don't remember if it was one here in the West Coast or one on the East Coast, but it was one of the ones I went to. And I always meant to like glue them together to make a mark meeting tool with kind of like I how I did the bottle, the papers caps. And so I forgot all about them. So we're going to plug the hot glue gun in and we're going to do that today. Holy cow. All right. I'll be back. Okay. I take it back. I took the bits that were up on top of the small bits bank down that were on top of the drawers. I didn't like it. I put them away some more and just got rid of some things. I looked at it and went, I don't need that. I haven't used that small bit or piece or large bit or piece. Since before I moved, I ain't going to use it now. It can go. So everything is re-labeled and clean and neat and just the way I like it. I can find stuff real easy. It's a good thing. All right. Good morning. It's 9 36am or so Wednesday, February 10th. You see, the pack is back. So anyway, they were waiting out there this morning for me to bring them some apples or something. So yeah. A little tired this morning, having trouble getting motivated to get going. My asthma was kind of on me this morning. So anyway, finally got up and took my meds and that's helped a lot. So now we're going to head upstairs. Check on the social media stuff, the YouTube channel, figure out what projects we're going to work on today, finish, catch up on all of that stuff. I don't have to film today, but I might. So we'll see. All right. I'll be back. Good morning. It's still Wednesday. I don't know what time it is.  It's a mess. I'll think my studio is neat and organized and so pretty. I'm still a hoarder at heart. I'm an artist and crafter and creative and this is my mess. So I need some cleaning today. There's some things I don't want to get rid of, but there's some things I could get rid of. I do stick with a bin system or I try to even in here because I am the kind of person that otherwise I'll just fill up this entire closet so you can't get in the closet with stuff. I think I need to keep for someday. Don't do the someday. Keep. So have a designated spot that you keep things when that bin is full or that box is full. Then you need to use it up or lose it. That's what I try to do. So we're going to work on that. And occasionally I do do the system, but occasionally I need to go through the bins and boxes because I just I keep too much and it's overflowing. It's time to go through and clear. So I'm doing that. I probably could get rid of more stuff, but I'm happy just to clean it for the moment. I found a few things to get rid of. But everything is clean and put away ish and I can find things. There are some things I don't use. I probably won't often going forward like this is the vintage case that goes to my manual typewriter. That doesn't mean I want to get rid of it. I do also have some plastic sterile drawers up here. I'm not using. I have a few art bags. I'm not using at the moment, but I like to switch things up now and then. And I like to be able to pick from my stash in here to do the sort of re-bamp vamping of the daily drawing bag, travel art bag, the art room, sometimes the bathroom, the kitchen. So I have a few things I'm going to get rid of, but most of it just needed to be put away. That works. All right. Onto the next. Okay. So I have been filming a couple of slow stitch videos today. I don't know right now until I edit the vlog. If I've talked about that or yet or not, I don't know. Anyway, so I'm editing them right now. I also unexpectedly cleaned out and organized my selection of interfacing and cotton batting and things that I use for sewing and slow stitching because I was looking for something and I couldn't find it. And that led me to clean and reorganize. You get the picture. Holy cow. Anyway, now I need to finish laundry because I think laundry is still working and I think I have another load that needs to go in the wash maybe. And I need to do the dishes because I've been just dealing with other stuff and ignoring chores. I also really, really need steps today because I only have like 1800 right now. So waiting for Mr. Man to get off of work and he's going to go with me tonight. So I think first I need to get a picture of the sunset. I'll be back. Okay. So I'm up here checking on the computer. I was loading video when we went out walking. We've had dinner. It's just before eight o'clock. I think Bob's going to make some chocolate chip cookies for dessert. Anyway, I think I told you all my mother-in-law who's 90. Well, I might not have. I don't remember now. So fun fact. I hate watching myself on video. So the editing process is always such a joy for me. Just before Christmas, my mother-in-law got COVID. She's 92 years old. She made it through. She was just fine. But then shortly after that, she fell in broker hip. That put her in the hospital and into care and was a long recovery process for her. And there were complications and she's going to be okay. She's home now, but she's home now with care. And the point is she's home now. She's getting better. She's got people coming in checking on her and she's going to be okay. Then I find out today that my mom, my mom who was about 10 years younger, has been falling evidently a lot for at least a week.  So she went to the hospital today. She's going to be okay. They didn't find any head injury or anything like that. They found some things that need treating that may be the cause of why she's falling, but they're treatable. But it's just so hard because like nobody could go in with her except, you know, I guess they let my dad in to check her in. But it's just anyway, both moms are going to be okay.   So anyway. We're watching this. You saw that clip. Got the idea for putting words over the watercolor paintings or incorporated into the painting somewhere from a video. I watched this morning from Yellow Melee and I will link her channel down in the video description. She's a very talented artist. I would recommend checking her out. I use words a lot in my art as you know, usually writing them in or collaging them in. I never thought to like paint around the words. But she does a great job with these little landscapes. I'd recommend watching that video. It's one of her latest videos. So anyway, I thought I'd try it this morning in my lips journal and I like the way it turned out. The lips I used, the Inspiration Photo, I think is my friend Lisa Swank who has a YouTube channel. I'll try to remember to link the channel below. I've got a couple other journals to work on including the one that I'm doing the Mission Inspirations in.   The rain hurts. So I'm guessing it's getting ready finally to snow or hail or something because we're expecting a cold front and it is cold out here even for me. So anyway. Okay, I've turned the computer off for the day. I got three journal pages done today. I did one of them making marks on the page with some found and DIY mark making tools I had and I used one of my little small jelly plates to ink up the mark making tools with paint and then bonus I was able to make some little small mini jelly prints and that I think I can use in my downstairs drawing daily drawing stuff that I have down here. So I'm going to put these in the bag. Good morning people. I have no idea what time it is at all. It's Friday, February 12th. So that I know. We have started last night and it's going to last until at least Sunday. It looks like that outside. I'm not sure if it's now as much as ice. Last night it was actually like raining ice. It actually hurt when I hit your skin. We were out walking and we cut it short because it was very slippery and it hurt your skin. It was the first day in a while that I got less than 8,000 steps in. I did break out the rubber spikes in case we entered to try going out later. I do own a pair of these for the bottoms of my shoes. I might need them just to go get the mail at the mailbox. I don't know. Ice and less snow. I had to put my snowshoe cleat things on the bottom of my tennis shoes. I think that's going to be the thing. Like for the weekend I'm going to just leave them on my shoes if I can. They're kind of a pain to get on and off. But they work well. It's not slippery. It's definitely not fluffy snow. It's not super cold but it is very white out here. So, yeah, it's a thing. Yes, we're out walking in the snow. As you know, we're determined to get our steps in.   Good morning people. It is just before 10 a.m. Saturday, February 13th. And to say we got snow and ice overnight. Kind of the understatement. We got more. I don't know if it's going to start melting today or not. So, I thought I'd come out and get some really cool pictures because there's some to be had. Yeah, I know my hair is wet. I shouldn't stay out here too long. It'll probably freeze and break off. Bonus free haircut. All right. So, we have decided to go out for a walk. It's not lunchtime yet. We got our cleats on. We're bundled up. There's like nobody on the road because it's too snowy and way too icy that it's crunchy underneath the snow for all the ice that's on the road. Anyway, I'll show you some pictures. Hang on. The neighborhood looks so pretty. Everything's just covered in white. It looks so great. Anyway, we're going to go walk around and see what we can see and we'll be back. Hey guys. It is like 9.30 something Saturday the 13th. Something like that. Anyway, other than the walking, we have not done much because it is very icy outside and what road conditions kind of suck. So, we've stayed home. Bob did de-ice my car and warmed up all the engines and all the vehicles. He went and knocked some snow and ice off things like the patio table and he cleared the front walkway and stuff like that. And I went through a big stack of magazines and I found some articles I want to save, some bits and pieces I want to cut out. There they are. They're hiding. I found an article on one of the magazines and I've ripped it out but one article, let's see, it was from Green Crafts Magazine and one of the artists, let's see if I can give you her name because I think it's a brilliant idea. Her name is Jennifer Tobin and she took old gift cards and hotel room keys and she made them into sort of little painted inspiration cards. Are those not the cutest thing on the planet? Again, Jennifer Tobin, T-O-B-I-N, look her up. I pulled the article out of the magazine because that's a brilliant idea. I have a notebook. I keep up here in the office of articles from magazines. I want to keep for reference and recreated my own sort of art reference magazine. So these stack of articles are going to get added. I kind of had a big stack of magazines. I have two watercolor magazines and an artist magazine to add to my reference up here. The magazines I just keep. Anyway, all the things for the things because of the things. I think the computer's off already. Bob is downstairs watching the movie The Joker with River Fee? No, Joaquin Feex? I don't know. It's a weird movie. It's a very, yeah, it's disturbing anyway. So I thought I'd come up here and close the vlog instead. It's been another weird week. You know, for the weird decade, for the weird year. I don't know what to tell you. My mom is doing better, by the way, as is Bob's. So that's all good news. And we're doing what we can from where we are to help.  I got my 10,000 steps into dancing. 10,973. So I think what it says with my squinty eyeballs. The 10,000 a day challenge is over, but I seem to be able to manage 6 to 8,000 on a slow day, which is amazing because my slow days and the old house in California used to be like 1,500. So yay me. We're eating better too and trying to drink a lot of water and all of that stuff, so. Alright, so this is the part where I tell you to please like, share, and subscribe. I hope you've had a great week and that you join me here on the channel next week. There's some interesting content coming up. I think it's interesting, but if you have anything in particular you'd like to see, please leave it down in the comments below again. But also, if you have questions, comments, or concerns, leave them down below. You can also private message me. My email address should be in the video description. If you're in one of my Facebook groups, you can tag me in a post. For friends on Facebook, you can, or on Instagram, you can DM me over there. And we'll see what we can do. If you want to support the free content here on YouTube and over in the Facebook art groups, please think about either shopping in my Etsy shop or joining Patreon or one of the other ways you can support the free content. Those links, along with my links for social media, if you want to follow me on Instagram or something, and a bunch of other stuff including my email newsletter are all in my link tree list of links which is down in the video description. The link for the art foamy that I've designed is also down in the video description. So go shop the art foamy site. Not only for my designs, there is some fabulous new designs out there for the other artists including these company owner KP. So please go check them out. It's a tough year. It's a tough decade. It's been a tough year. Let's just do what we can to get through it together. Do some art, do some breathing, do some walking. If I can do it, you can do it. I know you can. All right, that's it for this week. Please stay safe, stay healthy, stay creative. Please wear a mask and go out and do something nice for yourself because you deserve it and I'll see you later. Okay, bye guys.


Welcome to the sixth ITU World Telecommunication Development Conference here in the beautiful city of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. We're very delighted and honoured to welcome here in the studio Mr. Mohammed Nasser Alganim, the Director-General of the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of the United Arab Emirates and Chairman of the World Telecommunication Development Conference. Welcome Mr. Alganim. Thank you. Mr. Alganim, why has Dubai become such a popular venue for ITU global events? As you know UAE is located in a central place where first of all we are becoming a hub where east and west north and south countries can come to and exchange ideas and do business. The same time the telecommunications in the UAE has been advancing in a very past way and we are now one of the leaders in the world in terms when it comes to telecommunications whether infrastructure or services or even regulations. Our vision was to basically host, to start with, host the ITU World Telecom back at that time in 2006. So we were competing in order to host such prestigious event at that time. It did not happen and it did not happen in 2006, it didn't happen in 2009. So we were competing in order to get that event. So it happened in 2012, at the same time we decided since we are hosting the ITU telecom event we decided that since WTSA and Wicked was happening around the same time is to host them as well and make UAE a hub at that year in 2012. We had the support by the board of directors who had a visionary vision to look into the partnership with the ITU and it is a huge advantage for all the delegates that the UAE is first of all a very safe country, well situated around the world, it's a hub, it has got airlines which connects to it from all over the place at the same time it is one of the most attractive places for tourism as well. Now looking at this WTDC 14, I know that it's not quite over yet but what do you see as the most significant achievements or results of this conference so far? I think so far we have approved more than 27 resolutions and more than 17 recommendations or questions of course compared to because I have chaired Wicked it's a huge difference between Wicked and WTDC the spirit of people first of all who is participating completely different than Wicked everybody is coming with a spirit to you know to agree and to move forward on the agenda that was established. So far 27 resolutions touching bases on so many fronts one for example that deals with ICT and climate change, one second can be looked into the cyber security and combating spam, another resolution was dealing with people with disability and so on so forth so there has been a lot of important decisions, important resolutions that was taken WTDC that will be submitted to Plainly Potentialy Conference and by the end of this year in Korea and hopefully see the light for the next study period that will happen with the BDT. And what were the greatest challenges in conducting the conference if any at all? The cooperation of the administrations involved in any decision. The chairman of the conference facilitate dialogue between different parties. When you are a chairman to a small meeting you know sometimes you deal with one or two or three people who has got different opinions coming from different backgrounds, different positions. When you deal with a world conference you are you know in front of more than for this conference for the sake of an example more than 150 administrations. So you really need to bring them all around the table. You need to make them heard. You need to allow them to give their opinion and you need to be very balanced in your approach in order to make things happen and you need to be very positive. And the chairman has to come up with sometimes with solution and recommendations to the meeting in order to bridge you know differences. And I think respect for the chairman is so important. So if the meeting respect the chairman's opinion I think this can help in achieving its tasks. I was lucky because I have chaired Wicked. Wicked was a very difficult conference. I think Wicked was the most difficult conference ever I had before. And we came up with a treaty that was signed by 89 countries and my opinion it was a big success because it came with so difficult questions and thanks God it has concluded and we see right now the European is open up to sign and exceed to the treaty. And for me that was a very good exercise chairing WTDC because it has a huge difference in terms of mandate as well as you know it has a much less stress on me to do things. I think the chairman's and the vice-chairman's of committees did a great job this conference. There has been only one or two resolutions that I had seriously got involved in it where I had to sit with different administrations and try to resolve things otherwise things are moving in a very smooth way. I think we will conclude the conference today with a very successful outcome. Yes you just mentioned two big issues that you might have faced. Could you just share with us which those issues were? I think the first issue was the Palestine resolution which was negotiated between Palestine or the Arab countries and the U.S. and they have sat around the table, good faith, they negotiated the resolution and we have concluded it very quickly. So last Thursday the matter was resolved, it was presented on Sunday plenary meeting, it was closed. So that's something which is great and positive. The cyber security resolution which has taken a very long time until it has been resolved, you know people they stayed in the meeting rooms till one o'clock or two, two o'clock in the morning. This also came to a successful conclusion. Some of the issues was popped up in the plenary which was resolved very quickly and we've closed it and it has been approved. So that's these two resolutions. I think there was a lot of contentious around it, a lot of opinions about it but the good thing is all the administrations involved were positive and they solved it in a timely manner. We know that there were the six regions within the development sector and we had regional conferences or meetings where a lot of issues were discussed and agreed in those regions. We're talking about the Arab states, the Americas, Africa, the Commonwealth of Independent States and Europe. So has this helped to make the progress that we've made now? Of course, I mean instead of negotiating with 190 plus countries in a world conference you negotiate with regional groups. So in a region, the region countries get together, agree their common position and then go to the other regions, try to negotiate and then becomes two or three regions with one position and then maybe three regions with one and then fourth and fifth and sixth and then we come up with a conference where we agree with each other. There will be still on the agenda of any conference there will be common agreement on a lot of issues and there will be some issues which will be left that will not have an agreement between the regional groups and it will end in a conference where the conference is going to decide but otherwise without regional groups I think any conference will be very tough for any chairman but because of the regional groups meetings I think it makes it so easy for future conferences to conduct its business because administrations come at least with an agreement among themselves, among the region before they present it at least to the other regions and normally we see right now regional coordination meetings between the different groups. We have seen it in WTDC, in WRC, even in Wicked, even in WTSA regional groups get together, meet, they resolve their issues and their differences, they come to the conference with at least a smaller amount of work. There is one thing as well that I want to add, the ITU plays a role, the director of the bureau plays a role. So for example the BDT director, this conference played a massive role in bridging a lot of differences between different region groups and he did a fantastic job for the WTDC where he has resolved a lot of issues himself, trying to coordinate among the regional groups, trying to bridge the gap if there is any. So in this conference you know Mr. Sano for example he did it and I was briefed for the conference about the work that has been done and which is fantastic and I think the director of any bureau they do this before any conference. How do you see the future of the partnership between Dubai and an ITU? This is our fourth event in a row with the ITU and I think both parties UAE and the ITU have recognized one fact that this partnership was you know a very successful partnership. We had the ITU or Telecom, we had the WTSA 2012, we had the Wicked 2012 and we have the WTDC 2014 and previously by the way we had the GSR in 2007 where we had the Global Symposium for regulators but these are major major conferences where it was held in the UAE and the conclusion was very successful. So I think I wouldn't predict the future, I think there will be future work with the ITU. We are still committed as a country to work with the ITU closely, we are putting our candidature for the council, we are working very closely with the management team during the council meetings as well as during the study groups and so on and so forth. We have representatives from the UAE in Geneva which works full-time with the ITU, we are very close to the management team, we supported the Secretary General and the Deputy Secretary General and the directors with the bureaus over the past eight years, we have a new management team that will come towards the end of the year, of course we need to set with the new team and discuss the future of the ITU and hopefully work together more on issues and hopefully have more meetings hosted in the UAE regardless whether it's a major conference like this or like others or even study groups which we have held before. Let's look at the theme of this conference which was a broadband for sustainable development. Here in Dubai and in the United Arab Emirates itself a lot of effort has gone into broadband. Can you share the experience you have in this country with us? We have one of the most successful stories that we can tell the world and first of all we have more than 85% fiber run to the premises here in the UAE so which means more than 85% of the households has got fiber connectivity. We have an average speed today which is in excess of 4MB per user which is that's on fiber which we are targeting to have it doubled soon. We have speeds which is right now exceed 100MB, we have 300MB speeds which is deployed for individuals not even corporations for individuals. We have one of the most deployed 4G networks globally. We have more than 90% population coverage of the 4G network here in the UAE and 100% of the 3G. We're going beyond 4G soon. Our theme for the national policy is broadband and we have a high penetration rate in terms when it comes to mobile and when it comes to triple play globally as well. So people in the house they have voice data and TV on one platform and the realization by the government that technology the adoption of technology is so important and they have taken a very serious consideration to basically allow technology and even the day-to-day business of the government where the prime minister declared to migrate the government to become a smart government and have all the government services to be on mobile on smartphones is a huge step forward in order to transform the government services and even the look and feel of the government service into something which is very innovative and today we have deployed a lot of guidelines for all the government institutions. We have 110 applications for the government institutions. We have an app specialized for the government and an Apple store and on Android. We are the prime minister also declared that Dubai is going to be a smart city very shortly. There has been a strategy to migrate Dubai to become a smart city as well to become one of these first smart cities globally. So we have a big story to tell to the world and today in the WTDC all the delegations who was participating in WTDC they can come and witness the story and they can hear the story and they can feel the story. It's available it's running its life and we are we are going to see a lot of advances over the next not a couple of years over the next at least 12 months we will see a lot of advances that will happen in the UAE and that you will hear about. Okay on that very bright note on broadband in the United Arab Emirates we thank you very much Mr. Alganim for being with us today. Thank you and thank you and I would like to thank the ITU also for their trust and hosting this meeting here. My appreciation to the to the secretariat my appreciation to the Secretary General the BTC General the directors of the bureau the they have done a fantastic job we should not forget that this conference is going to be the last conference for them all of course some of them will be re-elected and the next planning potentially conference some of them this is their last term and I wanted to say big thank you for for all their work I think they need an appreciation and I think they have done a fantastic job over the past eight years Dr. Hamadoun Tore he's leaving the ITU this is the last of his term the last couple of months I think what he did with the management team the existing management team over the past eight years is something that a story to tell as well about the ITU where it was with the previous management and what it is now with their team he has given a good example of how team can work together with one hand they have fantastic management team Mr. Zau, Mr. Malcom, Mr. Sanu and Mr. Ransi I wish them all the best over the next couple of months I wish Dr. Hamadoun all the best for also his career after being a Secretary General of a very reputable United Nations agency thank you very much indeed thank you


Space weather this week continues to be a bit on the stormy side as we take a look at our Earth-facing disc We have a coronal hole that's been rotating in through the Earth strike zone over the past couple days It's been sending us some fast solar wind and along with a stealthy solar storm All of that managed to bump us up to G2 levels for a short bit back on the 27th Now we're beginning to calm down from that fast solar wind and we have yet another set of coronal holes This set is the same set that gave us a G2 level storm back in early September And it looks like it's poised to do it again We actually had a solar storm launch back on the 28th from region 3110 And this the solar storm looks like it's mainly going to the east of of Earth But Noah models show that the solar storm might actually clip us So right around the first about midday on the first We're expecting this the solar storm to kind of clip us along with that fast solar wind So once again, we may be up to G2 levels with storming Not quite sure it's going to be that intense, but we definitely will find out shortly Now also as we take a look at the far-sighted sun This is Stereo A and it's looking at the sun just a little bit from the side You can see that big coronal hole sitting around mid-disc along with region 3110 And that should get you kind of anchored a little bit But look to the East Limb in Stereo's view. You see a lot of brightening in the north This is from old regions 3094 and 3098 These are regions that were flare players back about a month ago And it looks like they've survived their far-sighted passage So we definitely will be expecting the solar flux to stay boosted And we're going to expect that radio blackouts will still be on the menu Now switching to our solar storm prediction model, Enlo This is Noah's version of the model The top panel's density, the bottom panel's velocity You're looking down at the sun from the north pole with earth being off to the right And as we watch the solar storms being launched You can see that first one, the one in the front, that's the larger of the two Even though it looks like it's coming out mainly to the east of earth As you watch it come out, you can tell we're going to actually get clipped by this solar storm Right around the first, probably mid-day to mid-afternoon on the first And this is actually going to happen right about when that fast solar wind from those coronal holes Is going to start hitting earth as well So Aurora photographers, this is good news for you It definitely means we could be getting some decent Aurora show Possibly down into mid-latitudes But amateur radio operators and emergency responders This is not good news for you, because we're dealing with Hurricane Ian So all of you that are dealing with the Hurricane Watch Nets Please understand that you're going to deal with radio blackouts Potentially on Earth's day side But then, right around October 1st when this storm hits You're going to be also dealing with radio propagation issues on Earth's night side as well So please take these matters into consideration when you're planning your communications For all that first responding you're doing As well as realizing that GPS might have some issues during the solar storm For more details on this week's space weather Including how that coming solar storm might affect communications during Hurricane Ian Come check out my channel or see me at spaceweatherwoman.com


My name is Rosemary Hobart-Caro and I'm originally from Papua New Guinea. I've been studying at the University of Canberra and I've been studying a master's of international development. I've had two motivations to come here and study. The first one was actually my late mom's dream. So she died three years ago and one of her aspirations was for one of her kids to get a master's degree. And so I decided to take that upon myself and come and do a master's degree in her honor. The other one was the glass ceilings I continuously hit while working in the industry I do. There was a lack of diversity in terms of the recruitment and so I decided to go ahead and challenge it by coming and getting a qualification here. So I'm going to have a different approach when I go home. I'm going to be more assertive in what I do and I'm going to be in a position of influence. So I'm hoping to influence a lot of the program designs. The best things about studying at the University of Canberra is because it's a tiny university. You get to speak with the conveners more than often and you get to see what they're researching and you get to reflect on what they're doing as well. So I've built a lot of networks. When I went down to Melbourne I met the Association of Professional Evaluators. I've met with the Vice President there and I've met with a lot of business partners here in Canberra whilst being one of the student reps on the Congress. The highlight of it was travelling across Australia. I've enjoyed every bit of it, hiring out a car, travelling to the little towns here in Australia. The scenery has changed over a six-hour period. I think I made the right decision by studying here. I could have gone to America for a Fulbright scholarship and I decided not to and I took on Australia's scholarship simply because of the proximity to my country. I know the Australian people much more now and I think that's a better link than to have gone to the US.