Thanks all for coming today, and in this talk, we are going to be talking about how we improve the performance of approval computations using Rust, and specifically, how we implement the Cairo VM using Rust. So OK, let's go.  We are Lambda Class. Lambda Class is a Latin-based software company. It's in the industry more than three years. And yes, basically, we love solving difficult problems. So if you have any problem, just give us a call. And OK, let's go straight to the talk. And the first thing I want to start with is to give a little bit of context and talk a little bit about Ethereum. And as you all may know, Ethereum is a decentralized network, meaning that when you run a transaction, the transaction is not run in only one computer, but in every computer that forms part of Ethereum or the network. So that's really cool, because the verification of the transaction does not depend on only one computer, on a centralized entity, but on every computer inside the network. But it comes with a downside. The downside is that the computation capacity of the network depends on your slowest node. So we have a situation that we have a high demand of running transactions, and our computation capacity is limited by our slowest node. So how can we solve this problem? And here is where StarNet comes into play. StarNet is a secret roll-up, and what roll-ups allows us is to run transactions off-chain, then make a batch of the transaction, and send to Ethereum the updated state. And what CK adds to roll-up is that we can run the transaction off-chain, generate a proof of the integrity of the execution of the transactions, and then we send to Ethereum the updated state and the proof of the computation integrity. So then on-chain, the proof is verified by a verifier, and that verification is running all the computers inside Ethereum. So the coolest thing about this verification is that the verification cost of the proof grows logarithmically with respect to the number of transactions inside the batch. So as the cost of verification is distributed between all the transactions, including the batch, as we add more transactions in the batch, the cost per transaction, the average cost per transaction, goes to zero. So yeah, here is a slide that I was supposed to say that the cost of verification grows logarithmically with respect to the number of transactions. And yeah, if we tend to infinity, if we take this to an extreme, and we tend to infinity, the number of transactions inside the batch, the average cost per transaction, go to zero. So OK, we say that in the start net, we can generate a proof on the execution of our transaction. But what kind of proof? Well, it's a similar proof, and specifically a stark. And your knowledge allows us to prove the veracity of a statement without revealing anything beyond the fact that the statement is true. And in this specific case, Starks allow us to prove the computation integrity of the transaction that would run off-chain. We are having to run it all again. So this is kind of a game changer, because before zero knowledge, the only way we had to prove the computation integrity of a computation was to run that computation ourselves. But with zero knowledge and Starks, now an untrusted entity can run transactions, generate a proof on the integrity of that execution, and then the proof has to be verified. And we can be sure that everything is OK. So OK, how do we write a program that is provable, meaning that its execution can be proven, the integrity of the execution? And OK, we have Cairo. And Cairo is a programming language, specifically designed to do this. When we run a program in Cairo, it's run in the Cairo VM. That Cairo VM executes a program, and also generates a trace of the execution. And that trace is then going to be sent to a prover and generate the Starks proof. And that proof is going to be verified by a verifier. So OK, how does the Cairo VM works? And now Ferica will guide us through the internals of the Cairo VM. So Ferica, it's on yours. Well, now let's talk about a bit how the Cairo VM works. Well, you already know how a virtual machine works. Basically, you write your source code, you compile it, and then you use a virtual machine to interpret that compile code and execute the instructions. But what sets apart this Cairo virtual machine is that it also generates this trace that can be used to generate the proof. So let's go a bit into the architecture of the Cairo virtual machine. Well, first we have the memory model. It is a write-once-read-only memory that is divided into different segments. These segments have a known size at runtime. And once we finish the VM run, these segments go through a relocation process, and we end up with a continuous memory. So well, the segments consist of the program segment, which contains the code of the program, the execution segment, which gets filled up as the VM runs, the built-in segment, which we'll talk about later, and the user segment, which contains structures defined by the user, such as arrays or dictionaries. Well, let's explain a bit about this relocation process. The first step is to assign a size to each segment. For example, the segment zero has five elements, so it has size five. And then we will use these sizes to assign a base to each segment. What we say with base is the first address of each segment in the relocated memory. So for example, for segment one, we have the previous segment base is one, because it is the first segment. And we add five, which is the size, and we get six. Now, with this base is calculated, we'll proceed to relocate all the addresses. We'll do this by adding the base of the segment with the offset of the address. So for example, here we have the address zero zero. The base of the segment zero is one, and we add zero and get one. We'll do this with all the addresses, and also with the addresses that are contained inside the memory. For example, you see here that we have two zero and three zero, and they both relocate to nine. As the base of the segment two and segment three is nine. And this is how the relocated memory looks like. It's a set of continuous addresses with elements. Well, now we'll talk about the registers. Cairo has three general purpose registers. The first one is the program counter, which iterates over the program segments and points to the next instruction to be executed. Then we have the frame pointer and allocation pointer in the execution segment. The allocation pointer will point to the next and use memory cell, while the frame pointer points to the current frame. But this means is that when we want to execute a Cairo function, the frame pointer takes the value of the allocation pointer and remains constant while the allocation pointer keeps increasing as we add elements into memory. And when we exit this function, the frame pointer will change its value. This is how the BM operates. This is the main execution loop. We first get the next instruction. We decode it. We compute the operands. Then we add the current register values to a trace and then we update the registers. So, okay, this is how the trace looks like. It keeps track of how the registers change for the execution of the program. And it also goes through the same relocation process as memory. Well, as we can see, the size of this trace will depend on the amount of steps that a Cairo program takes. So, if a Cairo program takes a lot of steps, this trace will get very big and will take more time to generate the proof. So, sometimes there are some computations which are very expensive, take a lot of steps, but maybe the information provided by each of the steps is not that relevant. For example, if we want to compute a Pedersen hash, this will take many, many steps. So, in order to solve this, what we have is, oh, sorry. We have built-ins. Built-ins are low-level optimizations that are integrated in the core loop of the VM and they allow otherwise expensive computation to be performed more efficiently. And, well, each of these segments, each of the built-ins have a segment in memory. Okay, but where do they come into play? Well, we see here that we have our main execution loop and we have this deduced operand added. What this means is that sometimes we might want to compute an operand and we can't really compute it directly and we will rely on some deduction rules. Sample here, we have the Pedersen built-ins out-of-the-action rule. What it does is it takes the true previous values in memory and computes the Pedersen hash of them. This rule comes into play when the address of the operand that we cannot compute belongs to the built-in segment and that built-in has an out-of-the-action rule. So, what this allows us to do is, for example, here, we want to compute the hash of x and y. So, what we do is insert x and y to memory and then we ask for the next memory location. As we haven't inserted anything into this memory location, we won't be able to compute the operand and we will fall back on this deduction rule that will be the one computing the hash. So, we computed a Pedersen hash, but there is no sign of the computation in the Cairo memory or the steps or the trace. Another feature that Cairo offers are hints. These are blocks of Python code embedded into a Cairo program and they allow Python context to access the VM state and modify it, also access local Cairo variables and can communicate between each other for execution scopes. What we see on screen is the alloc function from the common library. This function is commonly used to generate arrays and what it does is it creates a new segment and it inserts it into memory so we can use it from Cairo. We mentioned execution scopes. These scopes are a stack of dictionaries that can hold variables that are created inside a hint. These variables are not seen by Cairo, just by the hints and this can be created and removed inside hints and multiple hints can access the same scope. For example, this code is a bit long, but we could just focus on, for example, we first enter the scope with an n variable then we use that n variable, we modify it for various situations and then we exit the scope deleting this n variable. Well, so now let's talk about how we implemented hints in Cairo RS. That is our implementation of the VM. Well, first, why we chose Rust? We chose Rust because it offers very good performance, memory safety guarantees and it also has an amazing community. Well, our first iteration of hints in Cairo RS was basically to implement Rust functions that would imitate the behavior of hints and match these blocks of Python code to our hints. For example, the constants we see here are the blocks of Python code. This is again the example of the unlock function. This is the block of Python code and this is how we replaced it with a Rust native function. Well, these first iteration had pros and cons. On the pros side, we have that it was very easy to implement as we didn't need any new tools and it also offered better performance as calling functions within the VM was much faster than compiling on running code during the VM's run. But on the cons side is that we needed to watch out for changes. We first applied this to the common library so if a common library hand were to change, we needed to change our implementation in order to keep supporting it. And it also wasn't really extensible as if we wanted to support more hints we'd had to code it inside our VM. So as we wanted to support user-defined hints and we also wanted to integrate our VM with the current Python infrastructure we decided to go with the next iteration that consisted of integrating Python with our VM. In order to achieve this, we used the create pyurefree. It is a query that provides Rust bindings for Python and it allowed us to share our VM state with a Python context. Allowed that Python context to modify our VM and also allows to define a strict interface between our VM and Python by using PyClasses and PyMethods. PyClasses are Rust structs that can be interpreted as Python objects and PyMethods are Rust methods that can be called from within Python. So let's take a look at the code. Well, this is how we allowed hints to modify memory. We created this PyMemory object and when we want to get an item, what actually happens is that we call our VMs memory and we use our Rust get function and the same happens when we want to set an item. Well, how did we allow it to modify the Karyolocal variables? Karyolocal variables can be accessed inside hints by writing ideas.name of the variable. So what we did was override these ideas, objects, set attributes, and get attribute methods. So when we want to get an attribute, we are actually calculating the value of that attribute inside during the hint run and when we want to modify a local variable, we calculate its address and insert the new value into memory. The next step was execution scopes. In order to implement this, we took a bunch of the local Python variables. So what we did was take our execution scopes variables, convert them to Python objects and inject them into the Python locals. And when the hint was done running, we extracted the Python objects from the locals and inserted them into our execution scopes. This is how executing a hint currently looks like. We first take our local variables and inject them into Python locals. We create these Py classes that will allow hints to interact with our VM and insert them into globals. And then we, again, retrieve these values from Python locals and update our execution scopes. But well, how does this all look like? We created a separate crate for this called KyroRSpy in which we instantiate the VM and we execute the Kyro methods, the VMs methods, such as instant initialization running instructions. And when a hint cannot be run by our VM, we fall back to this Python hint execution. So with this approach, we were able to maintain the Rust functions that we created in the first iteration and also add this Python integration. So when you use the common library hints, you can still enjoy the boosting performance from the Rust native functions. Okay, awesome. Thanks, Fede. Oh, let's go. Sorry. Okay. It's okay. Well, the name of our talk is how we improve the performance of proven computation. So showing some benchmark was a must. And here we can see how our implementation of KyroRS is about 100 times faster than the Kyro VM using the CPython interpreter and about 20 times faster than the Kyro VM using the Pypy interpreter. And the coolest thing is that our implementation is 100 times faster than Kyro VM using CPython but also consumes half the memory. And our implementation is 20 times faster than the Pypy version but consumes 12 times less memory than Pypy. So, yeah, it's really cool. And yeah, okay. I hope that standard developers embrace KyroRS and that helps building and accelerating the ecosystem. So, yeah. That's it. Thanks for being here. Questions? We still have time for some questions. So we have our volunteers in the room. Just raise your hand if you have any questions. Compliments for the great presentation. Hello. Hello. Well, I've seen you before. My question is, how stable is this? Is this available to use right now? Or... If it's available to use right now? Yeah. Yes. We are still developing the integration with Python. But, yes, KyroRS is open source and you can use it. But we are finishing, I think, in maybe two weeks the integration with Python. So after that, we are going to start testing it and making it faster. So we can be sure that everything is okay. And then it is going to start using it in production. So we are really excited. You let them speechless about the representation. Well, big round of applause. Thank you so much, Federica and Herman.


The aphid, one of the most common crop pests in the world, has a weakness that scientists have now learned to exploit. When attacked by predators, the bugs release a pheromone to tell fellow insects to scatter. Biologists have proposed spraying these alarm pheromones directly on crops to prevent pest damage, but synthesis is costly. With the advent of genetic engineering, though, the cheaper option is to modify crops to produce the deterrents themselves. In 2015, biologists at Rothensted Research, an agricultural research station in the UK, reported the first engineering feat of this kind in wheat. To make wheat release insect pheromones, the group inserted a gene from the peppermint plant, which allows plants to produce the appropriate chemical. Then, they tested whether the altered plants' volatile compounds were capable of repelling the pests. Using a multi-chambered olfactometer to provide different odor options, the scientists looked at how much time three types of aphids spent in each environment. All three species spent far more time away from the areas with the aroma of the engineered wheat, suggesting the modification successfully acted as a deterrent. Similarly, when scientists placed a small drop of the alarm pheromone made by the engineered plants on aphid colonies already feeding on regular wheat, most of the bugs dispersed. The pheromone has the added benefit of attracting aphid enemies, such as parasitic wasps. And indeed, the researchers found that compared to controls, wasps spent more time hanging around and foraging on the engineered plants before flying away. Finally, the team tested the new plants in the field, growing plots of wheat and counting the number of aphids and wasps through several seasons. Unfortunately, the results observed in the lab were not repeated in the field. The pheromone-releasing plants harbored populations of aphids and beneficial insects the same size as those on regular wheat. The results indicate that while this type of engineering is capable of producing pheromones that ward off pests, more work will be necessary to make sure they protect crops in real-world conditions. Nevertheless, once successful, the concept might also be employed to control insects that spread diseases to farm animals and people.


Okay, welcome to the weekly charting analysis webinar with Jasper Lawler at CMC Markets. We've got the risk warning on the screen. We'll have a quick go through that. Any questions at any time, please send them through the chat or the Q&A windows in the webinar program. I'll answer them as soon as I see them, really. FF11 to give us some full screen. Fresh week, here was an interesting one last week. It was a good one for stock markets. Finished off with a little bit of difficulty from the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. I hope all of you were successful with your trading in around that. Just to quickly recap, let's maybe have a look at Dolly Yen. So basically what's happened, I don't know if this is the best example, it probably isn't actually, but was this it? Yeah, probably not actually the greatest example to look at Dolly Yen's range bound. But basically what happened is we had an initial spike. Yeah, one at one o'clock, so yeah, that'll be it. We had an initial spike higher on the data just because the headline jobs number was better, but then we dropped down in the dollar pretty quickly afterwards just because the monthly earnings data showed it to climb when a small increase was expected. That was basically a sort of offset a little bit, a big jump that we saw in January, which I think the explanation goes that it was largely because of an increase in minimum wages that kicked in at the start of the calendar year. Still wages looking a little bit soft, and so that raises the question whether the Fed has any sort of ability to raise rates this month. It's not the Fed we're really thinking about this week necessarily. Obviously they're always at the back of mind, but it's more the European Central Bank. That's the big event of the week that comes in on Thursday. Now we heard last week that I could pull up the Germany 30 chart for this because I think it illustrates quite well. In and around mid-week we heard that there was some indecision from the ECB about whether they could, you know, about doing anything more than just cutting the deposit rate. So it seems like a cut in the deposit rate is fairly well expected now. So that would probably take us to minus 0.5% on the deposit rate. So that's what we'd be expecting to be announced at 12.30 on Thursday at EMT. And then come the press conference. That's when there's apparently not so much consensus on what else can be done. And so I think probably not unrelated is that even though it's in oil prices push a fair bit higher. European markets pretty much flat line since then. And you can see that on this Germany 30 chart they actually run into these peaks from January. So not managed to take out those peaks yet. Not a big, sharp sell-off yet. There could be, but at the moment I think people sort of holding their breath to see if the ECB can come up with the goods. So that would be the question, Mark, what extra can they do? Mark is looking for more than just a rate cut. They can't really extend the timeline again. I mean, they've already done that once. It's already gone from a 12-month program to an 18-month program. So, you know, obviously what everyone's really looking for is for them just to increase the monthly amount of purchases from 60 billion euros to maybe 70, 80, 90 billion. But there's some debate as to how many bonds are actually out there for the ECB to actually buy it. So they may have to resort to extending into other areas. The most extreme would be exchange-traded funds or just outright shares as the Bank of Japan has been doing. Needless to say, if the European Central Bank started indicating they were going to buy exchange-traded funds or shares, that would be positive stock markets. Probably a pretty outside chart that's going to happen. But it's still hard to see how else they'll be able to do much more in the way a monthly purchase is because the market's just not as big. Now, while we're in this topic, let's have a quick look at the euro. So a bit of a messy chart, to be honest. You know, all good if you're trading short-term because we'd quite a good downtrend there. But it's hard to find the kind of general context for it. We did pretty much stop at the bottom of this prior range.  So we kind of did the rally and then just dropped back again. So the price that we are at the moment, funnily enough, is almost precisely where we finished the ECB meeting when there was a massive disappointment in December. So we've kind of chopped around, gone sideways, pushed up higher, it comes straight, but that come down overshotted it to the bottom of the range now and we're right there again. So this was the big 300-bit move, the December meeting, and here we are back pretty much at that point. So we've been finding a little bit of resistance for the 200 DMA. We're still positive from the perspective of a higher high and higher low-steem put in. But the market looking a bit, you know, a bit soft and bit sideways really. So you can see that the euro is pushed higher in the last couple of days, maybe partly reflecting not only a bit of dollar weakness obviously from the non-farm payrolls, but that was just a Friday effect. There has been a bit of dollar weakness in general, but also just that maybe the ECB, they're not going to come up with the goods.  If they come up with something a bit more disappointing, that's positive for the euro. So that's kind of the lead-up for the week there. More generally in stock markets, note today, if we just have a look at the UK 100, note today in its week that the FTSE 350 Mining Index is up 28% so the mining shares, a basket of those are up 28% this year. The FTSE is down just over 1% this year. So we've had a good bounce back from the lows. It was a lot worse than 1% for sure. So we're almost back to kind of break even on the year for the FTSE 100 and obviously the UK 100 is our proxy for that. So we had that false breakout layer and we pushed up. We've taken out this high here, which is certainly a positive, but we haven't managed to make much ground above. And so in these kind of choppy markets, the risk is we're basically looking at another situation but reversed. We've had a breakdown, doesn't go anywhere and just goes back. Here's what we could be dealing with here. Break up, chop, chop, chop, doesn't go anywhere, back into the range again. That seems like a good distinct possibility to me. We have pushed out of the 57 area on the RSI. So that was a positive development. But really I think the kind of line in the sand probably is just, here's where we ideally would have wanted to bounce off that second day. If we just continued high from there, that would have been good, but we haven't managed to. Probably given that we haven't managed to bounce immediately from these peaks, I would suggest we're probably heading down to the lows. And these lows really here, these need to hold in my mind to continue the decent amount of momentum that we've been having. If they don't, then that's pretty much just back into the range with the false breakout here. Short to term, on the short to term chart, this looks a bit like a little double top taken place. And obviously as the chart says, bearing in mind, we are below the down slipping turn to DNA. So we've been led higher by the likes of the mining stocks, which have been the most beaten up over the last 18 months. So the risk there, when you see that, is that it's a short covering rally. So the company, it's not the good companies doing well, as you want to see in a healthy market, it's the bad companies bouncing back as people scramble out of their short positions. Generally, something I put in the chart forum actually, I think US markets could be kind of leading the way here because there's some pretty fairly cut, well-defined resistance. Now this is the small cap, approximately the Russell 2000. You can see here on the RSI, massively overboard, nearly at the 80 level, rolling off a bit, as of today at least, obviously we're not closed, so you can't reach too much into that, so at the moment we're down a bit today, and we're banging right into this potential resistance area here. And we have managed to push through it a bit so far, that's encouraging, but obviously looking pretty overextended here. So not so much that you want to go aggressively short, but it's definitely a risk area, and if you have been long for a while, you want to have a bit of a heads up in this area. It's a potential for a drop. If we do comfortably fly through here, then I would just naturally say that there's previous peak here where we sort of held up a little bit and then did the massive drop. That would be an area where a few people have positions and want to square them off, having gone long here and then got back few and break even. There's slightly less looked at chart, the broader US markets, but if we zoom in a bit to the top 500 companies, you see something pretty similar. So we had this double bottom, we broke out, but now we've run into this kind of selection of lows here, and a bit of reversal that took place from Friday on our candlesticks. Obviously it's right at the 2,000 mark, and just shorted the 200-day moving average, so we could get it all pushed up to the 200-day, but this is looking a bit uncertain here right into our resistance area. So it's under the 200-day moving average. It's after a prolonged move higher, and it's into an area of resistance. Fibonacci, I think we're through most of the areas, and let's just see maybe from the highs we're at 61.8, just for a little extra bit of confirmation. Well, look at that, yeah, there we are. We're pretty much at the 61.8% fib of this whole decline from these peaks in November. So a confluence of resistance here. You're going against the short-term trend if you are going short, but still a few reasons to believe that this is a bit of a troubled area. If you get a close below Friday's low, that would be a little bit of extra confirmation, I think, that we put in some sort of interim top. If you're looking for a bit of kind of cross-asset confirmation here, look at it right across the equity markets, but here, green and oil. So oil is higher. It had a good day on Friday as well, yet we're not a consultant in the stock market. So that normal positive catalyst you get from a higher oil price, not seeing it help stocks today. So maybe again another reason to think we're a bit of a tipping point. Switching over to FX, then we've got a few events going on. We've already touched on the ECB. We've got German industrial production tomorrow. We've got colony speaking tomorrow and Eurozone GDP tomorrow. So a few events centered around the Euro. Let's put the Euro pound, because that's kind of an interesting one at the moment, because we had this triple bottom. The objective was 7,980. We didn't quite get there. We had pretty sharp reversal away from the 200-day moving average. Now we could push up to that objective again, but I think this is a good one for the benefit of hindsight for anyone who was taking a breakout of these peaks here, which worked out pretty nicely. What are we talking about here? Well, close to the full target of one, two, three, 450 pips from that breakout. I think when you're planning your trade, you see the 200-day moving average there, and it has capped rallies last time it was toasted, and you have your objective pretty much 50 pips above the 200-day moving average. You'd be eyeing up a target of 450 versus 500, and with the benefit of hindsight, this is a good example where you'd think actually better to TP a little bit earlier here at the 200-day, just in case it causes some resistance ahead of my surprise target. So this is a good example where it has, in fact, happened. And I think a bit of extra evidence is just that we have seen a bit of a top here, because we had that big reversal. We came back, and then we pushed it and made a new high, touched the 200-day, and rolled off sharply from there. So we have tried to break higher again. We've got here once. We've tried to push higher and haven't done so. My amount of weekly chart here, a bit hard to see, but if I drop down to, like, a four-hour, you can pretty much see the kind of double top where that was the first peak, and then we pushed up. 200-day, he was here. 200-week moving average, sorry, he was here. I think I was saying day before. Apologies for that. I meant week, and then we rolled away. So pretty much a double top. We're holding above the neckline at the moment, but again, if we dropped through that close from last week, not really, yeah, I suppose last week, if we dropped through last week's low, it's looking fairly bearish on the Eurobound, and we're obviously coming off a kind of failure swing here from the RSI overboard. So the Euro has been doing very well against the pound. The pound's been sliding, but the pound, as he has, had a pretty decent run of form recently. The pound is actually a bit overboard against some pairs, but here may be a bit of a turnaround about the stakeholders. Now, we do have UK manufacturing production on Wednesday, and the UK trade balance on Friday, which is not normally such a massive one, but we've obviously had this big slide in the pound. That's not going to be great for the trade balance. As far as China data, no direct impact as far as FX, but we do have China's CPI, PPI Thursday, and over the next weekend, we've got China industrial production, and I haven't seen it on the calendar, but I assume retail sales, they normally come together. So let's let me look at sterling itself.  We've got a good rally off that so far, but seem to be suffering a bit. There's 42.30, which if we pull out, I think it requires a monthly chart, is the lows from 2010, which is obviously what we took out in February. We bounced back in March, but that would be an obvious multi-year kind of area of potential support and resistance here. So pretty much on the dot, 42.30, we're rolling away from. So obviously the opportunity was at 42.30 itself, but if we get a lower close today, particularly below the open from Friday, a little bit of confirmation maybe, that we've seen a little bit of a top. And obviously bearing in mind that the weekly chart shows us that we're on lower lows and lower highs, and we're below the 200-day moving average. So kind of in line with the trend as well. Euro, we did look at, didn't we, for the sake of the ECBs. Yeah, fairly kind of messy chart. Let's not look at that again. Dolly Yen is an interesting one. We've double-bottomed. I know I'm on a very short-term chart here, but we've double-bottomed, but we've not taken out the neckline. The neckline would take us to about 118.70, should we break above basically 115. We've got that big 116 resistance in a way. You could easily get a kind of false break through 115, fail at 116 and drop again. So be aware of that area, but something in the lines of 118.70 on the cards, should we get a push through 116 as well. At the moment, not seeing much demand. It's faltering at 114. If you ignore the spikes, you look at the closes, barely getting any closes through 114 here. And Dolly Yen obviously matches up fairly well with equities. And if you think about the S&P 500 and things, we had that double-bottom and then a push right at S&P 500 rise, we're probably up here. Dolly Yen not even broken out higher from that previous peak in February.  This is Brent. So we're on a daily chart here. The big one was that we pushed through the 35-36 area. That was a good breakout last week. Now, we've just run into the previous peak from January. So above there, we're the highest. I think, well, as of today, we're actually according to our cash prices, we're the highest we've been all year. So a bit of a turnaround on the oil price. Look at a bit over-extended, but that's not necessarily a reason to think prices can't go further. One thing to perhaps be a bit concerned is we've got a bit of a confluence of resistance here. Yes, I've messed around in terms of which high I've chosen to use. I haven't used this high because, frankly, it doesn't line up as nicely. This was kind of a choppy range bound. It was here when we bounced up and then failed to get back up to the top of the range again when the downtrend really kind of kicked in. So I've used that. And it does just work out nicely with these peaks here. The 50% retracement is right where we're at at the moment. The 61.8%, if we do manage to push through these peaks, sits right in line with that, the August low, which held us up a couple of times before we dropped off. So I think it's fairly clear cut within the main levels in oil at the moment. It's that breakout of 36. That's the kind of support beneath us. It was resistance and out support on the downside. A bit near a term is maybe where we broke out on Friday. These peaks here are around 37. And if we get higher through this level, it's the 41.70 really, I guess, is where the 61.8 is. And then just a bit above that is really just 42, which is the low from August. And we'll finish on a high with one of the best-looking charts at the moment. If I can just get this webinar thing to drop away, so I can actually click. Why are you doing that? It's 11 U. It's got this one on, what was it, Thursday that we broke out? Yeah, there's a pretty clear cut triangle pattern here. This is the daily chart, better seen on the four-hour chart. Look at this, just the lows lined up beautifully, highs lined up beautifully, and then just got a breakout on the four-hour, the hourly would have been the best ones to catch it on. But even on the day, we've got a pullback to the 1250. So even if you'd wait for the day to close, buying at the end of the close, yeah, it's always a risky one, and we haven't followed through that much yet. But if you'd wait for a pullback to the 1250, then you'd add a ninth entry point, and we're pushing higher again today. So the objective, I need to scroll the chart down a bit. Based on the height of this triangle, which is obviously a pretty wide one, should actually take us to 1325. So immediate support would be the 1250 that's already held. And if we're above there, then good chances, I think, we can get up to this 1325, which does take us pretty much underneath that 200-week, moving average, and kind of somewhere in line with this peak from back in July. But I think it's hard to argue that we've turned a bit of a corner in gold, but I think the risk is that, you know, the way it swings around is that we've had a big uplift. How much further does it really have to go, especially while equity is looking quite buoyant? It's been going up with shares, which shows that it's not entirely just a sort of anti-shares trade at the moment. It's a general sense of risk aversion and mistrust in the rally in stocks. People are buying gold almost like a hedge. Either just, no, I don't believe there's rally at all, I'm just buying gold, or just sort of, well, I am buying some shares, but I'm going to buy gold in case things fall apart again. Okay, I think let's leave it at that. Not seeing the specific questions through, so thanks very much for attending. Good luck with the trading this week. Just all the signing out.


I'm Sam Vaknen and I'm the author of Malignan Self-Lug, Narcissism Revisited. This is the first in a series of ten videos about how to survive a relationship with a narcissist and how to cope with a psychopath. First, it's important to understand that there is nothing special about the body language or behavior patterns of abusers who are not narcissists and psychopaths. Not all abusers suffer from a personality disorder. Regrettably, most victims find themselves trapped long before they have become aware of any meaningful warning sign. Also important to remember is that abuse is a multifaceted phenomenon. It is a poisonous cocktail of controlled freakery conforming to social and cultural norms, and it includes latent sadism. The abuser seeks to subjugate his victims but also to look good and save face in front of family and peers. Many abusers simply enjoy inflicting pain on helpless victims. My advice to you is to disengage, detach, terminate the relationship, get as far away as you can.  Abusers react to the slightest provocation, real or imagined, and they react with disproportionate wrath and rage and often violence. It is important therefore never to openly and repeatedly disagree with your abuser or contradict him. If you do, your abuser is bound to walk away, but only after he has vilified and harmed you in every which way he can. Abusers feel threatened by real sharing and by common decision making, so never offer your abuser any intimacy. It is a sure way of turning him off and his aggression on. Abusers perceive intimacy, or the offer of intimacy, as a prelude to manipulation. Internally they have a dialogue that says, actually a monologue that says, what is she getting at? What does she really want? What is a hidden agenda? Abusers are, to some extent, narcissistic, they have narcissistic traits. So admire and adore them openly, but do not lie to them or exaggerate. This would be perceived by them as cunning and will provoke your abuser to feats of paranoia and jealousy. Look old by whatever matters to your abuser, for instance by his professional achievements, or by his good looks, or even by his success with other women, but don't overdo it. The abuser tries to transform his personal space into the exact opposite of his real life. At home he is the master of a fantasy of perfection and harmony, and the undisputed recipient of adulation and obeisance. Any reminder that, in reality, his life is a drab, dead end, subject to routine that is a failure, or a tyrant, or a swindler, or a wannabe, sometimes hated by his own oppressed family, any such reminder is likely to be met with unbridled hostility and worse. Never remind your abuser of life out there, and if you do, connect it somehow to his sense of grandiosity. Reassure him of the permanence of your obedient and self-sacrificial love to him. Do not make any comment which might, directly or indirectly, impinge on his self-image, on his omnipotence, judgment, omniscience, skills, capabilities, professional record, or even omnipresence. He wishes to be godlike, treat him as such. Listen attentively to his words, and never disagree or contradict him or offer your point of view. You are there merely to witness the abuser's train of thought, not to derail it with reminders of your separate and autonomous existence. Be saintly, be patient, be accommodating, and endlessly giving with nothing in return. Never let your energy be depleted. Never let your guard down. Your abuser is likely to be provoked to extremes by signs of your personal autonomy and independence, so you should conceal your thoughts and plans, make no overt choices, and express no preferences.  Tell him how much you rely on him to reach the right decisions for both of you. Play dumb, but not too dumb, or it may provoke his suspicions. It is a thin line between pleasing the abuser and rendering the abuser a raving paranoid.  Surrender all control to him. Deny your self-access to property and funds. Do not socialize. Drop all your friends and hobbies.  Your abuser is bound to be virulently jealous and suspect illicitly his owns between you and the least likely persons, your family including. He is likely to accuse you even of insist. He envies the attention you give to others, even to your common children. Place him on a pedestal, and make sure he notices how you ignore, spurn, and neglect everyone else. To your abuser, you are an object, no matter how ostensibly revered and cherished one, hence the battering. He monopolizes your time and your mind as well as your body.  He makes for you even the minutest choices, what to wear, what to look for dinner, when and where to go out, and with whom. In extreme cases, your abuser regards even your body as his to share with others if he sees fit. It is an honorous existence, consistently tiptoeing on actions. Neither is it invariably successful. The submissive posture delays the more egregious manifestations of abuse, but cannot prevent them all together. Choosing to live with an abuser is like opting to share a cage with a predator, or a nest with a snake. No matter how domesticated, nature is bound to prevail. You are more likely than not to end up as the abuser's next meal. Bear that in mind, remember my advice, the only way to treat an abuser is not to treat him at all, to disengage, to go away. And this is the topic of our next video.


Good day everybody. Dr. Sanger Sanyal, welcome to the next dissection demonstration. This time I'm going to mention the neurovascular structures on the flexor aspect of the forearm. So let's start off from the cubital fossa. We see this is the median nerve. The median nerve goes through two muscles and you can see it is going through the two heads of the pronator theories, the humeral head and the ulnar head and you can clearly see it is going through and this is the place where the median nerve can get entrapped in the condition known as the pronator syndrome. After it has passed through the pronator theories it again goes through yet another muscle and what is that muscle? You can see it here. It goes through the flexor digitorum superficialis muscle which I have split open.   So this is the second muscle it pierces through and then it runs undercover of the flexor digitorum superficialis all along here and it comes to the wrist between the flexor carbide radialis and the palmaris longus and it enters the carpal tunnel and my forceps has gone inside. This is the carpal tunnel and it passes through the carpal tunnel which I'm going to mention in my subsequent video and then it reaches the palm. So this is the course of the median nerve and this is an important site where we can give anesthesia to anesthetize the median nerve and this is the site where the median nerve can get compressed in the condition known as carpal tunnel syndrome. So that is about the median nerve. Now let's take the next neurovascular structure. Again let's start from the cubital fossa. This is the brachial artery and we can see the brachial artery is dividing into two major branches in the cubital fossa. One is this branch, the other is this branch. This is the ulnar branch and this is the radial branch. The ulnar branch gives rise to the introsius recurrent. It gives rise to the introsius artery which divides into an anterior and posterior introsius artery. We cannot see that here but then after that the ulnar artery continues undercover of the flexor carbide ulnaris and we can see it coming here. This is the ulnar artery. The ulnar artery is situated lateral to the ulnar nerve and they are both undercover of the flexor carbide ulnaris. The ulnar artery does not go through the carpal tunnel. It goes superficial to the carpal tunnel and it gives rise to a dorsal carpal branch and then it forms the superficial palmar arch on the palm. So this is about the ulnar artery. Now let's take the course of the other division. The ulnar artery also gives anterior and posterior ulnar recurrent arteries which participate in the elbow anastomosis. Now let's take the other branch that is the radial branch. This is the radial artery. The radial artery does not have too many branches. It has just one recurrent branch which participates in the elbow anastomosis called the radial recurrent. Otherwise it does not have any branch in the forearm. It runs mostly under cover of the brachioradialis and you can see it running under cover of the brachioradialis and this is the radial artery and it runs down and we can feel the pulsation of the radial artery lateral to the flexor carpal radialis tendon. This is the place where we feel the pulsation the so-called radial pulse. This radial artery then does something very interesting which I'm going to show you in another video in more detail but we see that it goes deep to these tendons and they come to this region which is called the anatomical snuff box and after that the rest of the course I will mention in yet another video. So this is the course of the radial artery. So thank you very much for watching ladies and gentlemen. These are the neurovascular structures in the flexor aspect of the hand.


popular folklore states that there are seven gateways or portals to hell on our planet. And it is believed that one of these portals is in a very small town in Kansas. But before we go any further, you know what to do. Please hit that subscribe button and give us a like. Also a very, very, very special thank you to all of our patrons. Without you, this channel would not be possible. If you would like to join our Patreon community, there is a link down in the description box below. Welcome to Esoteric Atlanta. My name is Bryce, and today on Mystery Monday, we are going to be talking about Stoll Cemetery. Cemetery is located in the sleepy little town of Stoll, Kansas. To this day, Stoll, Kansas remains an unincorporated community. This means that the community is not governed by a corporation of its own, but rather is part of a larger division of government within the state or the county. The county is Douglas County, and Douglas County's county seat is Lawrence, Kansas. Now, for those who are not from the United States, a county seat would be the city or the town that would be considered the capital of that particular county. So within each state, you'll have a state capital, and then within each county in the state, you'll have a county seat or city or town that is the capital of that specific county, if that makes sense. Lawrence, Kansas is about 12 miles away from Stoll, Kansas, as the fifth most populous county in Kansas. In 2010, it had a population around 110,000 people, although Stoll itself has never seen to break 50 people within its little community. Stoll's history is very, very interesting, and probably is part of the reason why the legend of its cemetery is so vast and so wild. It was founded in 1857. Its original name was that of Deer Creek, but in 1899 it changed to Stoll after the mailman whose name was Sylvester Stoll. The original language of Stoll, Kansas, was German, because the people who settled in this area were pretty much German people escaping religious persecution from the Protestant Reformation as well as escaping newly found German confederation in the 19th century. They basically wanted freedom from the military and they wanted religious freedom. Now these Germans who settled in the area were what we call Anabaptist. We've spoken a little bit about Anabaptist in some of our other videos, and I am planning on doing a huge deep dive into the roots of the Anabaptist movement, but for this video, basically the word Anabaptist means one who is baptized again. One of the biggest differences between like a Baptist church and a Presbyterian church that I grew up in is when baptism takes place. In my church, the Presbyterian church, one is typically baptized as a baby. This is very cultural because for most of our history we didn't know if children were going to live that long after being born, and so parents wanted to get their babies baptized as soon as possible in case the worst thing in the world were to happen and the baby wouldn't survive. There was a lot of superstition around baptism being a key anointment to be able to get into the kingdom of heaven. The Anabaptist believed that baptizing your babies was basically bunk, that a person needed to be able to make that decision to be baptized, that they would be able to make the decision to confess their sins, take the baptism, and then move on with their new life with Christ. We see this now as people being dunked into pools at the Baptist church or like John the Baptist in Jesus' time where he was dumping people in the river. Well, the Anabaptists were very, very, very heavily persecuted in Europe, not just from the Catholics, but also from the other Protestants as well. In our modern times, a good example of a German Anabaptist would be like the Mennonites or the Amish. Up until 1867, the citizens of Stoll, Kansas would meet at somebody in the community's house to have a church service. But then the community decided that it was time to build a church. This is when they decided to build the Evangelical Emanuel Church. Around the same year that this church was built, they also decided to build a cemetery with the church, which is pretty common, especially with older churches. It was very common in Europe that if someone were to die, they would need to be buried on hollowed ground. And hollowed ground was considered ground adjacent to a church. Now, the Church of Stoll, Kansas only spoke German up until about 1908. By 1912, the little town of Stoll, Kansas was starting to thrive with 31 residents.  This was the story of Little Oliver. In the early 1900s, Little Oliver, who lived on a farm with his parents, ended up dying in a fire that his father was managing in their field. Needless to say, Little Oliver died a pretty gruesome death and was promptly buried in the cemetery.  Well, soon after Little Oliver died, they found a man hanging from one of the trees in the cemetery. By 1922, the citizens of Stoll, Kansas decided to raise enough money to now build a new church and build a new church they did. This church was called the Stoll Evangelical Church and was right across the street from the old church and the old graveyard. By 1968, the church had a new name. This was now called the Stoll United Methodist Church. Seeing that it was now called the United Methodist Church makes me believe that the community of Stoll started to move away from its Anabaptist heritage. Around the middle of the 20th century, rumors started that the original settlers of Stoll were not Anabaptists, but were actually Satanists. This piques my interest because when I study groups like the IBLP or Steve Anderson with his new fundamentalist Baptist Church, I tend to get more demonic energy with their teaching versus the love and acceptance of God. And because the Anabaptist teachings are so, so strict, I can definitely see how one would think that this might actually be a Satanist group. In November of 1975, a student newspaper from the University of Kansas wrote about the legends surrounding Stoll Cemetery. This article claimed that the cemetery was the cemetery of the damned and that Satan himself came to visit the cemetery twice a year, once on Halloween and again at the spring equinox. According to the legend, there was a tree that stood by the old church, the original church built in 1867 that had the word which inscribed on it. And underneath this tree was a tiny grave that locals believed was the grave of Satan's son. It is said by locals that the baby, Satan's baby, was kept in the basement of the old church and was basically fed table scraps every day where this baby would guzzle down these table scraps like a wild animal. The legend continues that after 10 years of being kept in this basement, Satan's child broke out and went on a year's killing spree in the community of Stoll. It is also believed that the tree above the grave that has the word which on it was a tree that was used to hang the mother of this baby. It seems a witch within the Stoll community made it with Satan and had the baby and therefore after her baby was caught and put down, the community then hanged her right above the grave of her son. It is also believed that there could have been more witch trials within this community that perhaps were not recorded like they were in Salem. Perhaps these witch trials were of a more vigilante nature or perhaps these witch trials were a cover story for actual satanic sacrifices because it's no secret in the town that the original church became a notorious hotspot for satanic black masses. By the 20th century, the old church had lost its roof and became a bit rundown. However, whenever it would rain outside, the inside of the church seemed to stay dry.  There was also a legend about an eighth window. You see, the old church had seven windows, but apparently before bad things happened, an eighth window would appear at the back side of the church. By the 1960s, the residents of Stoll, Kansas decided to put a fence up around the old church. This was because security guards, police officers and residents would find mutilated bodies of animals due to satanic worship that had been happening in the cemetery. Eventually, the residents of this small town decided enough was enough and took the old church down. But one thing I know for sure is that sometimes the building itself isn't what is cursed, but perhaps the land. Now, it seems that trespassing has become such an ordeal at this church that they now tend to ticket people who try to break into the cemetery. Now, down in the description box, I have listed a video from Mystery Archives regarding Stoll Cemetery. They did a really good job talking about these legends and go into more detail regarding some of the stories like the eighth window and Satan's Child. But as far as I could tell, they're generally the same stories that are circulating around. There's no real concrete evidence or proof that this is a portal to hell because it seems, according to the residents of the area, that the tales of this place being satanic went on from generation to generation to generation. Grandparent would tell parent, parent would tell child, and so forth, and so forth, and so forth. So this is my question. If this was a known secret in the town of Stoll, Kansas, then what else do they know that they're not telling us? Who were the original settlers really of Stoll, Kansas, and what was their true purpose of building that church? All right, guys, thank you so much for sitting through another video. Please let me know your thoughts and your opinions down in the comment section below. And if you've been to Stoll, Kansas, if you've seen the cemetery, I would love to hear from you. I tend to believe that there is something nefarious going on here because where there's smoke, there is typically a fire. If you watch Mystery Archives video down in the description box below, you can also see some actual photographs people have taken of the cemetery that are pretty wild. But with that being said, I hope that you all have a wonderful Monday and a wonderful week ahead. If you would like to purchase the opening song, there is a link down in the description box below. Thank you so much to Josh McKay for doing this song for us, and thank you to Todd Roderick for helping me get this video out to you guys. Again, I hope you have a wonderful day and a wonderful week ahead, and I will talk to you soon. Bye.


Hello everyone, this is Alice Gao. In this video, I'm going to talk about performing inference using the joint probability distribution. The joint probability distribution is something really nice to have because if we have it, then we have all of the information that we ever need to calculate any probability that we're interested in over any subset of the variables. Unfortunately, in practice, we usually do not have the joint distribution because the joint distribution is very expensive to create. Sometimes we don't even know how to produce it. But in theory, it's nice to have a small example where we can look at the joint distribution so that I can discuss different ways of manipulating the probabilities. So in this section, I'm going to talk about two different rules that we can use to calculate probabilities. One is a sum rule and the other one is the product rule. If you've taken a relevant stats or probability course, then this should be a review for you. Let's consider our home scenario and let's simplify the scenario a bit. So we're only considering three random variables. The first one is whether the alarm is going off. The second one is whether Dr. Watson is calling and the third one is whether Mrs. Gibbon is calling. So we're ignoring all the other variables. In this table, I am representing a joint distribution over these three variables. So how do you interpret these numbers? For example, 0.054 here, this is a probability where the alarm is not going, Mrs. Gibbon is calling, and Dr. Watson is not calling. So you can interpret each of these eight numbers in a similar way. One good check to do when you're looking at a probability distribution is that you should always check all of the numbers sum up to 1. And this example, that should be the case if I constructed the example correctly. So given this joint distribution, let's think about two tests that we can do. The first test is how do we calculate the probability over a subset of the variables? And the second test is how do we calculate a conditional probability? So the probability of one variable given that we know the probability of another variable. Let's think about the first test first. We want to calculate the probability over a subset of the variables using the joint distribution. And the rule that we can use is called the sum rule. So, the idea of the sum rule says that, well, if we only care about a subset of the variables, then we can simply sum out every variable that we do not care about. So what do I mean here by summing out? Let me show you a couple of examples to illustrate this. Suppose that we have a joint distribution over three variables, a, b, and c. Suppose that we want to calculate the probability that a is true and b is true. Note here that I'm using the shorthand notation where just writing a means a is true and just writing b means b is true. Of course, these variables we are considering are all Boolean random variables. So we can calculate this probability by summing out c. Here is the expression that we can use. So the probability of a and b is equal to the probability that a, b, c are all true plus the probability that a and b are true and c is false. Notice that we are varying the values of c while fixing the values of a and b. We care about a and b both being true, so we're fixing that, but we don't care about the value of c. So we're varying that and adding up all the terms of all possible values for c. Let me show you another example. For the second example, we only care about a. We want a to be true and we don't care about b and c. So we want to sum out both b and c. Well, how do we do this? We have two variables that we don't care about and for two Boolean variables, we have four possible combinations of values. So there are four terms we need to consider. In these four terms, we are fixing the value of a to be always true, but we're varying the values of b and c and considering all four possibilities. So all the possibilities are both being true. One is true. The other one is false and then both being false. To summarize, how do we calculate the probability over a subset of the variables using the sum rule? Well, to do this, we need to add up a bunch of probabilities and in all of these probabilities for the variables that we care about, we are going to fix their values to whatever values that we care about. And then for those of the variables that we do not care about, we are going to vary their values. And in particular, we will consider all possible combinations of values for the variables that we do not care about. For the next three slides, I have three quicker questions to help you practice the sum rule. In this video, I'm only going to show you the solutions, the correct answers. And in a separate video, I will show you the process by which I got the correct answers. So the first question here is what is the probability that the alarm is not going and Dr. Watson is calling? So we want to calculate the probability of not A and W. And the correct answer is 0.36. So it's A. Question number two, we want to calculate the probability that the alarm is going and Mrs. Given is not calling. So the probability that A is true and G is false. The correct answer here is 0.06, which is option B. Okay, question number three, we want to calculate the probability that the alarm is not going. So this is the prior or the unconditional probability that A is false. And the correct answer here is 0.9. So option E. You can note from here that in our model, at least in this model, the alarm is unlikely to go off, right? So alarm going off is a rare event. These are all the practice questions for the sum rule. Let's now move on to the product rule. One way we can use the product rule is to calculate a conditional probability. So when I talk about a conditional probability, I mean the probability of one variable, say called A, condition on knowing the value of another variable, say B. And to calculate this, we can use the product rule. Suppose that we have a joint distribution over A, B, and C again. And we want to calculate the probability of A given B. So we can do this using a form of the product rule as follows, where the probability of A given B is a fraction. And the numerator of the fraction is the joint probability of A and B. And then the denominator is just the probability of B. Just a reminder that in this case, we only care about the case when A and B are both true, right? So this formula I'm showing you only applies for the case when they're both true. You can derive similar formulas when one of them is false, or both of them are false. So you might look at this formula and think, this doesn't look like a product. Why is this called a product rule? That's because you can rewrite this formula in a different form, which looks more like a product. So if we take the denominator and move it to the left, then we get the following formula, where P of A and B is equal to the product of P of A given B and P of B, right? This looks much more like a product, except we rewrote that formula a little bit because we want to get the conditional probability. And also notice that in order to calculate the conditional probability, we need the joint probability over A and B, and we also need the prior or unconditional probability over B, right? But both of these are not directly given by the joint distribution. But that's okay. We just learned the sum rule, and using the sum rule, we can calculate both the numerator and the denominator. So calculating this conditional probability is going to be a little bit more work than before, where we have to apply the sum rule first to get the components that we need and then calculate the fraction. So how can we interpret this fraction? Well, the denominator means that in order to calculate this conditional probability, we only care about those worlds in which B is true, right? We don't care about the worlds in which B is false. So dividing by the denominator means we are going to rule out all possible world where B is false. I will only focus on the world where B is true. And then the numerator, well, within all of the worlds in which B is true, we want those worlds in which A is true, right? So that means the worlds that we actually care about have the property that A and B are both true. So that's why the numerator is P probability of A and B both being true. For the next two slides, again, I have two practice questions for you to practice using the product rule. I will include the process in a separate video, and in this video, I will only tell you the solutions. This is the first question. We want to calculate the probability that Dr. Watson is calling given that the alarm is not going. I've given you the joint distribution again, and I've also given you some probabilities we've calculated before in case they're useful. So the answer for this is that we want to calculate the probability of W given not A, and the correct answer is 0.4. So B is the correct answer. Here's the second question. We want to calculate the probability that Mrs. Gibbon is not calling given that the alarm is going. In this case, we want to calculate probability of not G given A. The correct answer here is 0.6 or option C. That's everything for this video. Let me summarize. In this video, I talked about two ways of performing inference using the joint probability distribution. After watching this video, you should be able to do the following. Calculate the probability over a subset of the variables using the sum rule given a joint distribution. Calculate a conditional probability using the product rule given a joint distribution. Thank you for watching. I will see you in the next video. Bye for now.


Well, well, well, we've appeared to have reached the final boss of Impel Down. Welcome back to the channel, we have episodes 4.49 and 4.50 today of our one-piece watchthrough. We have really made a dent in this show to say the least. But yeah, like I said, final boss Ivan has apparently lost to Magellan as well as Inazuma. Very worried about both of them, but Magellan did catch up to Luffy in the entire group and he's not gonna let them leave without a fight to say the least. I'm excited to hop into it. If you knew the channel, don't forget to drop a sub and let's get started. You put some respect on Ivan.  Just thinking about them getting taken down for him to help him get away. Oh, he's angry. You can't fight blindly Luffy. You know how strong he is. No, for real. Thank you, Monkoi. What, set it all up? Set what up? Backup security? What are you guys gonna do? Oh, Jinbei knows. Stop struggling, Luffy! Go! Don't wanna be in vain, brother! Oh, no. No, for real. You can't go the entire process again. There's not time for that. Just grab Luffy, Jinbei, and run, please. The plan now. What plan? Eh? Shoot, brother. That's not gonna do much. I'm sorry. He's unstoppable. He's just poison incarnate. Ironically, they need Blackbeard to be able to disable it. Blackbeard is like the end all be all for double for users. He's not gonna let them escape easy, man. Mr. Three, his glass is shine. The wax. He's gonna drop wax on Luffy. Protect him. This is Mr. Three. It's time to shine. Let's go, baby. Yes, sir. Protecting everybody. Yeah. I'm so proud. But he can't help but love Luffy because Luffy just wants to... Yeah, he sees him as friends. Mr. Three redemption, baby. Hi, buggy. Throw yourself in there, baby. He says candle in Japanese. It's wax fruit. You hired him originally, Kron. That's the entire concept of One Piece. You never know when what power is coming handy. It's all application. It's cool how much scenarios can change based on what double for users are there. Go. I bet you're the first one, buggy. Luffy, you need to be the one to go, man. You're the one after Ace. You better make it quick, man. All right. Well, Shinbei is like, I'll go prepare the ship. He's like, I was just making time. They committed. All right, Luffy. Master plan. Oh my candle armor. Wait, he's gonna encase him in it. Oh my gosh, I'm getting flashbacks to Foxy Pirates. I feel like he should encase his whole body. It's perfect. Oh my God, he's too distracted. You'll let him wait for it, right? Surely. No, there's no way Ivan just dies like that. Dude, Mr. Three is stepping up to the goddamn place. Hey, come on. Who would matter? He'll just turn in the poison. Can he get a hidden? Okay, it hit him. Hmm. Oh, let's go. Luffy with this wax on is so crazy, man. Oh, that's their little standoff, I guess, on the stairs. That's going to level one, right? Oh my God, Bucky, you're going to get shot, brother. Stormtrooper aim for real. Um, is what's his name going to be standing at the top? Swordsman? I keep forgetting his name for some reason, such as an R. They need like the sea prism nets that they use on the prisoners. Can they not use those? Is it a technically disabled Magellan's power? Mr. One and Vaughn Clay fighting together. Good times. Good times. 800 each? My goodness. Yeah, actually, though. Yeah, I guess getting out here is going to be a little bit more difficult than I thought. Jinbei a fish man, and he seemingly a very powerful fish man. Just dive in the water and start dragging ships down. Easy peasy. I'm just assuming he's insanely strong. Nah, he's going to be there. No, you guys are way too optimistic. There's no way all these guys get cut down right at the end. I'm holding my breath. I feel like he's going to be standing there. Yeah, there's ships everywhere outside. Wow, buggy being very grounded and reasonable. That's crazy. The best plan is to take multiple ships, or if you can, and separate other ships, like put them in the groups. Oh my gosh, the light. Oh, it has to be beautiful to them. Oh no. Maybe they're not going to run into him. He would be inside still, I thought. Oh, maybe this is meant to just be like really happy. Oh yeah, wait, never mind. Oh, nice. Okay, I thought it was like kind of building the tension for them to open the doors. He was just going to be standing there and just like slaughter all of them. But maybe I'm just pessimistic. I mean, there aren't a lot of Navy men outside, so one way or another. Let's go. The true jailbreak. They're just going to see all the ships, man. What? What are you talking about? Where did they all go? I don't understand. Well, yeah, but that means they don't have anyone to fight against. It's kind of like a double-sided blade. Guys, chill. This might be more ideal. I'm not going to lie. There's got to be a ship somewhere. Did they leave solely so that they wouldn't have an escape? Oh. And yeah, they can't swim or anything. Oh gosh. Dang, maybe the Navy is kind of five head. They were like, we are not letting another Ines lobby happen. That's what he told them to do is just to straight up just leave. Wow. Yeah, they straight up have no escape. Oh, no, wait. This is disastrous though for Luffy to try to get to Ace. If there's no ships. Did you make out a plan? But what can you do? Okay. Yeah, he's a unit, bro. The make-up boat? Holy gigachat. Oh my gosh. Dude, Jimmy is a beast. We got the squad. No worries, baby. We got the God dang squad. Just Mr. One and Crock and Buggie. Yes, sir. And Buggie is going to inspire the rest of them to come. That's our captain. This is so wild, man. I love this. This pairing. Buggie's got four blades too. Oh my gosh. This is sick. Bro, it's like that scene in SpongeBob where they got on David Hasselhoff's back. Oh my gosh. This is crazy. I'm proud of Buggie for being this brave though. No, that's actually kind of true too. Oh, he just dodged it. I'm shocked they already saw them. Oh, no. Sink Jimbae. Oh, dude, look at him. I like how Mr. One and Crocodile are just like stone cold and Buggie's just freaking out. Hey, Jimbae is swimming. What is he doing? Oh my gosh. Wait, is he going to launch it? He's going to try and push it onto a ship, isn't he? They're like trusting him. The Shaman Jiu-Jitsu. The Russin' Gun. Bird. That is so cool. Crocodile and Mr. One knew to just trust what Jimbae was doing because he's a warlord for a reason. And now we're seeing that reason. Dude, they're here to take over, baby. You guys don't stand a chance. Yeah, good luck doing that. Well, the thing is Croc doesn't have any sand to really work with. He's not going to be as strong as he was in El Basta. This is the title match. Dolph shot. That's cold. Bury you. Azuma. Finally, we do see the true power of Jimbae and he's crazy strong. But like I said, something you'd expect from a warlord. But man, he is the fish man. Episode 450. Let's go. Ivan, wait. Just inject yourself with anything. Yes. Thank you. Okay. That's what I was expecting. I feel like in this circumstance, Mr. One is actually... Oh my God, Buggy's got taken down already. No shot. I feel like Mr. One might be stronger than Crocodile, since he doesn't have sand. Yeah, good luck throwing them overboard. We're going to need some sea prism nets if they want any chance. Oh, and yep, here comes Jimbae. Wait, is he making a whirlpool? Oh, the... Jimbae is just cracked out of the wazoo. Wait, he could just take down every ship and just swim around. They would never stop him. Oh my gosh. He is so busted. Yeah. Guess you're going to need a different one. Dude, this is nuts. Like I said, all it takes is like one drop of poison. He's giving it to him though. I know Magellan ain't going to take this now. Oh, maybe. He's going to need one big final hit though.  I like the purple backing too. Give him more armor, Mr. Three. Do they have to have some like sea prism stuff somewhere? Like nets and whatnot. The thing is they had to wait for them to get back with a boat anyways. The thing about that Magellan. The old fish man. He's like, oh, thank you for telling me your plan. Just threw the smoke aside. Okay, dude. So let me speed things up. Hello. Oh, shoot. Wait, it was like magma. What is this called? I know he has a name for it. Oh, he looks crazy. You don't got no name for it? Mr. Three can just sense the danger. Oh, it did nothing. Oh, it's absorbing it. Oh, no. He needs to get it off. Oh, no. Like infects everything. Dude, Magellan is so strong. I don't know how they beat this form of him too. What is this called? Corrupting the entire place. What was that enough? He's like, I'm just burning this person to the ground. Venom demon. That is sick. Oh, okay. He just retracting it. Does this form have like mini stages? It seems. Oh my God. That is so cursed. This is like final form of Magellan, isn't it? Oh, no. If he was strong before. Oh my gosh. How do you beat that? Where is Blackbeard? Actually, at this point, Blackbeard can't do a thing. They all got poisoned too. Okay, prediction. I feel like Ivan is going to go find Blackbeard, heal all of them and then come up with them. That might be the counter play to this. The only counter play. I don't know. Blackbeard can't get close enough to touch Magellan though. He has to make physical contact, but he has this entire poison or venom around him. You just killed him. It's actually final form of Magellan. Oh my gosh. It's just like he's encased in it. You can't touch him. He's unbeatable. I'm really racking my brain to find out what they do, but I have absolutely no idea. What is Bonkley doing? He's just stressfully like spinning. There's not much they can all do right now. None of them can help against Magellan. No one can take down Magellan right now. Like I said, not even Blackbeard. But strong enough. Yeah. I like how much of an opposition Magellan has become. Over the course of this arc, like he's a monster and Jim Bae, like so many strong characters just getting introduced. It's so cool. I think that Luffy is strong and then the show just throws new people at me. They're like, no, he's nothing compared to these guys. See, Kraken still use like his moves and whatnot because he's made of sand. Just do. He doesn't have as much to work with and also being logia. They can't touch him. I like how he tells them right before he just murders all of them. Does. Well, here comes Jim Bae. Dude, like every time they does the eye catcher, I'm like, oh, damn. Yeah. Wait, the straw hats exist. I forgot. I hope they're all doing okay, man. I worry about them. I worry about Chopper on his own. Poor buggy just got rolled as soon as they got there. Yeah. What are you Goober's going to do? Oh, shoot at your own ship. Okay. Excellent. They'll just take another one. Oh, Jim Bae just be sending entire like pillars of water. I feel like that's after his character just getting the gunpowder wet and nullifying it because he said he's anti-war anyways. Like, I feel like he doesn't even want to destroy these ships. He's doing it so that they can obtain one.  Bond Clay. He's so stressed out, man. I like how he just idle. That's his idle animation. It's like, guys, we got a run. Now we got... Oh my gosh. The devil himself is here. Wait, he made it up to this level though. He's not on three anymore. Four? Oh, no. Oh, this is dire, man. One wink. One wink. Oh my God. He's got to shoot through the floor. No shot. Ivan is a beast. Yeah. Okay, how much can he do though? He's like, he's like dying. I made it in time. Good. Barrel. Dude, nobody can take him down. Oh, oh, phone call. Wait, it looks like Jim Bae.  They got a ship. They got to get back and help or just get an escape. Gosh. Jump in the water. Brother, he can't swim. I guess Jim Bae could swim and grab them. Dude, he's a real MVP of this arc aside from Ivan. Ivan and Jim Bae for real, like, carrying. They have to waste as much time as possible. Just put wax out onto the water. Easy. He looks so sick. He's just balancing on one foot. Yeah, it just spreads. Brother. What do you do? Oh, it's so sad. They're just like right there at the exit. Dude's just going to massacre all of his prisoners. Wait, wax the third gear fist. Let's go, Mr. Three. And it looks so sick. Wait, is what? But he still can't touch him. Oh my God, we haven't seen him use it with his foot before. He knows it's not going to do that much damage, but he needs to push him back. He has to just keep, keep stalling. I did more than we could ask for. Oh my gosh. He's deplaning. Oh, he landed on Ivan's hair, whether there is no time. Yes! You have to.  It's better than everybody's perishing. What can Ivan do? I guess wink him back. Strawboy's son. He should wink all of them out to see. No, that's genius. Wait, but then Ivan would dive. He's behind. Oh, it's down to the wire. Oh my gosh. Oh, Ivan's going to wink himself. Just like how he, how he launched himself before. Go! Hold! Go! Oh my God. One of the sea kings. That's just the shark, I think. Well, how far can he go? What? Hello? No, Ivan would drown too. Oh my gosh, wait. Did Jinbei like call fish? No shot. They all escaped. Oh my gosh. Let's go. Dang, dude. Dang. That's why he said leave it up to me. I stand corrected. Jinbei and Ivan, the goats of the Ark. Oh, this is too much, man. This was, oh, this was so much. Impel down is insanity. This entire arc is crazy. And they escaped, we made it. We're home free. We got a ship. We got basically like a wall in front of us between us and Magellan because of all the whale sharks. And now it's just a race to Marine Ford. But my goodness, dude, that was so stressful. That was insane. I love how down to the wire it gets sometimes. And that's about as down to the wire as it possibly can get. Genius to just have everybody just get onto Ivan. But now the question remains, what about Blackbeard and his crew? It's kind of just a really fat loose end that I don't know what the implications are going to be, but we learned a lot about Blackbeard and the fact that Warlord wasn't his end goal. I don't know what is. Maybe the one piece is sort of the end goal. I mean, it is for a lot of people, but I feel like it's something more specific than that. But guys, that has been it for Episodes 449-450. We are just blowing through this. I like, it's just, it scales up and scales up and scales up and we haven't even gotten to whatever Whitebeard's plan is against the government. And we still have to stop Ace's execution. If you're new to the channel, don't forget to drop us up and I'll catch you guys in the next one. Peace, peace.


TIPS is a not-for-profit economic research organization. We do policy research largely for government. And we've been around for almost 20 years now supporting the new democratic government in South Africa with training industrial policy type research. And we have organized this conference around the themes of regional integration and regional industrialization and regional value chains. These are very, very relevant at the moment for the South African government. And we felt that this type of academic conference would give some support to the policymakers who are attending this forum. The region's important because South Africa is involved in a number of regional collaborative processes through the TFTA, sorry, the Tripod Free Trade Agreement. And now there's talk about Africa-wide agreements on free trade. And these processes are slowly materializing. And it requires a rethink in terms of policy terms of how to South Africa, which has been fairly insular, even in the democratic period, has been fairly isolated from the economic trade with its neighbors. So it's grown in recent years, but it's nowhere near what other regions do in terms of insuriginal trade. So the legacy of apartheid still lives with us. And even in terms of bilateral institutions and how we interface in terms of infrastructure and border posts, all of those things aren't at the level at which they should be. So with South African government really looking at these things in a lot more closer detail, it helps to have the research community supporting the need for policy change and policy direction and how to rethink. Because there's no easy answers in some of these things. There's been different models that have been used in different regions. Some have worked, some have not worked. We see Greece as one of the casualties of some of the outcomes of regional collaboration that hasn't necessarily worked out. And we at a point where going down this road the South African government is saying, let's learn from what's going on elsewhere. Let's look at what's going on in industry. Let's look at the different ideas that are out there. And let's look at how these things are playing out on the ground. And that's where research becomes very useful. It's a closed session where people are able to engage and hear the issues in a non-confrontational environment. So it's a nice space. And what it allows for is fairly frank discussion. And also it's an opportunity for academics who've been doing research who don't normally get heard by the policymakers or who want an audience with policymakers to present their work for policymakers to hear a different perspective or to see the detailed research that's been taking place. So it does provide a research outlet for academics and which is why I think we've got quite a good response from academics to come through for the conference. Well, it's helped at a number of levels. So we've got a number of very good papers from the UNU WADA network. People who are researching very relevant issues have come through for the conference and have been supported by UNU WADA to come through. UNU WADA have also helped out with funding support for the conference. And in South Africa doesn't quite get a lot of donor funding anymore. So we have to run these things on a project by project basis. And with the support of UNU WADA, we've been able to actually host the conference and with one or two other sponsors we've been able to make sure that the conference is a success and we've been able to bring out a whole range of people who are interested in presenting their work.


If you just say the words, the world's an illusion, but you're not happy, you've renounced the world in words. But you still believe in it because you're not happy. Look at the Beatitudes in the Bible. If you're not in those Beatitudes, then you can say the words I renounced. And you could put on robes and cloths. You can bathe in holy rivers. You can get the holy blessings and the holy water. Listen, Jesus is not interested in all these holy rituals.  Remember that ego is not denied by words. If you think you're going to get to heaven by spouting metaphysics, you need to have peace of mind. You need to have a happy heart. You need to have gleeful eyes in order to experience the Kingdom of Heaven. Don't try to do it through the words.


We got a $20 Christmas box. That is not Christmas. Well. Hey, fellow buddies, thanks for watching. Amazing, right? All right, let's get started. Well, it looks like somebody goofed. Let's see if there's, wow. Let's see if there's anything good in here. We got a pair of crocs. If they didn't have this disgusting liner in them. Man, that's a bummer. This is not Christmas. What is happening here? Okay, fellow buddies, should I open an item not as described? Because this is obviously not a Christmas box. Oh my goodness. Okay, so I'm putting this video on my main channel. If you guys like unboxing videos like this, please head over to my sourcing with fellow buddies YouTube channel. That's where I normally put these videos, but this one was just too good not to share. So weird, bummer. They're just too ratty. I can't do it. I can't do it. I'm really weird about shoes. Those are pretty nice. Kind of like those. How do I know it? Here we go. They are a size M11. Those look pretty good.  All right, so I took this footage from Drew Thrift in Flips over on Instagram, but he is also profit monsters on YouTube. You gotta go check him out. But I saw this video and he is literally power washing his shoes. And honestly, it seems to be working out really well for him. But anyway, I had just said I was gonna throw those shoes in the washing machine, but maybe I'll ask my husband for the power washer. What do you guys think? Go follow profit monsters. Okay, this was a $20 box. All right, what is this? Apex thermothorics inserts, your shoes, Bostonian, they look nice. They're a little, I got some wear on them here. Made in India, leather upper 10W. I guess I could wipe those down. They're a little dusty. Look at all the dust. I can't even believe that this was labeled a Christmas box. I don't know what that is. Ew, I don't like messing with shoes. It's just not my thing. Surf light craft, huh, island surf. Oh boy, I'm just, I don't even know what to think right now. Ocean Pacific, those don't look too bad. Dockers, those are clean on the bottom. Again, they're just dusty on the inside. Men's 12 medium. I mean, they look like on the bottom, they haven't even been worn, but on the top, that's weird. Okay, I guess this is a mystery shoe box. Yeah, those are nasty. I'm just gonna throw those away. Yuck, cuddlers, is that what that says? Cuddlers, cuddlers, huh, weird. Wonder if it's some sort of big money vintage brand. I don't know. Quicksilver redskins. I don't know if you're allowed to sell redskins stuff anymore. I'll have to look those up and see. None, noon, bush, bush, huh, what's that say? Made in Spain, 10 and a half. I'm gonna look those up. Those might be something fancy. Made in Spain, need cleaned up.  Cuddlers, cuddlers, baits, leather upper, 11D. Huh, they're not that bad actually. Maybe I'll look them up. Yeah, I'm gonna look them up. I said maybe, maybe I'll look them up. Floor shine, I've heard of that. They all just are dirty. I need to clean them. I don't wanna clean them. 10D, okay? This is hilarious. I got shoes. Dr. Scholl's, that is looking pretty good condition. Let's see what they say here. Leather with man made upper 11D, okay? Are you guys laughing because I got shoes? Here's another Dr. Scholl's. Those looking pretty good condition also. Probably the same person donated both of them. This is hilarious. I feel like these are pretty nice too. I can't read the brand. Oh, Crofton Barrow or Barrow, I don't know how to say it. Those aren't too bad. Nice, anybody wants some, looks like sawdust. I think these are for golfing, right? Probably a big money bolo. Oh my goodness, LA gear, sport in the LA gear. Do you guys remember LA gear? I remember some Keds. These are actually not in awful condition. Wonder if they're vintage. I'm gonna put them to the side and check them out. Sports by Rockport. Again, really decent condition. Here's another Floor Shime. Those are nice. India made in India. Oh my gosh, you guys, this is hilarious. Here's that other Dr. Scholl's. Oh wait, I don't even know what's happening. I think I'm missing, oh, here's the other Dr. Scholl's. I don't know if these go for decent money or not, but ooh, what are those? High tops, what do they say? Pastry, run athletics, pastry, huh. I'll look them up, but you guys, I'm still cracking up that I have shoes. There's the other one of those. Here's the other Floor Shime. There's the other one of those. Memory foam, those are nasty. They look comfortable if they weren't nasty. All right, well, there you have it, a Christmas mystery shoe box. That's interesting. You guys, I think I'm gonna check all these out. I'm kind of happy about this. That's kind of exciting. Ew, that one needs, I don't know. I mean, if they're worth money, then somebody might wanna clean those up. Sorry, got somebody mowing. $5 Christmas box. Er, Christmas lights, it's like it's all lights. I'm completely 100% donated. Okay, we got a $10 box. Ew, boy. I usually don't mess with those because I don't want to ship glass unless they're something special. Now these are the unbreakable kind, unbreakable kind made in USA by Bradford, huh. Now those are kind of cool, but I'll have to look them up. I don't know if I, no, see they're peeling. I'm not gonna mess with that. I do, not mine, shipping unbreakables, but, and they are vintage, I'm garland, ho, ho, ho. Is that a Q-tip? That's a Q-tip. Okay, yuck. Ear muffs linen coals, $14.99. Yeah, I don't really, I'm not gonna mess with these. Oh my, broken glass. Not cool. Yeah, that's awful. That's just awful. I do want to see if it's like Sky Corp. Oh, this broken glass. What are these? Some sort of candle. Flowers of Jerusalem candles. Set that to the side. Man, it's really just too bad that these are all busted up. I don't know what that symbol is on the bottom. Oh, that looks like there's pieces of this thing that I was gonna look up, broken, bummer. It's probably worth money, right? Some of these that are fine and is not like my viewers, obviously, but like if I put it at the trash can, it's a bummer. I gotta find something to put that glass in. This is when it's a pain to get a mystery box. It's work, $20 box. My goodness, who needs Christmas bags? Not me. Oh, this is a pretty tin. I think it's got stuff in it too. That's really pretty. I don't know if it's old or not, I'm trying to find, they've got markings. That might be vintage. So this piece here that some of them go for big money, this came off right here. Somehow, I don't know, I had it on there. And then this hooked onto that and then this was right here. So I may try to repair it because some of those go for a lot. We'll have to see. Two crystal spears, multi-each two crystal spears, special two-pack grade for outdoor tree assembly. Looks like it's Kmart, looks vintage. Those are kind of cool. Might look into those a little bit. Don't typically mess with those, especially if they don't have a box. I was trying to read what it said. Does it say Mercury's? Mercury's, huh, Pennsylvania. Huh, like it lights up, we'll hang onto that for now. I will keep these to ship in because they are actually brand new from the $2 store. This, this looks kind of cool. Made in China, music looks like it plays music or something. Maybe it lights up, a little research on that. Oh, wait, it looks like it's broken. Or no, maybe not. I don't know what that is. Okay, you can definitely probably sell that stocking. Okay, wow. Hello, stockings. This looks like a crafter's, somebody who needs stockings, I suppose. My word, says one you color. Oh boy, I suppose somebody might want these. I'm gonna keep those tins. Wow, there's a lot in here. Oh yay, these are cool. Mickey Mouse, definitely can sell those. There's a lot in here. Paw Patrol, what on earth kind of box is this? It's just like something that people got at the dollar store or I don't know, but wow, I'm digging this. Digging it, digging it, all patrol. I mean, they're just $3.50 normally, but they're brand new with the tags. Well, I'm not sure what I'm gonna do about that. Definitely gonna hang onto this stuff and figure something out. Maybe I'll put some on Poshmark. Maybe I'll bring some to whatnot. Somebody can use these for crafting for sure. Wow, wow, wow. Okay, that's the last box there.