Okay, so a group call, 21st of June, 2023, and getting into it, we've got the dollar and does the market believe the Fed dot plots and it doesn't look like it, it does not look like it at all. So, pretty much the Fed were hawkish, right, in terms of, in terms of their rate hikes, so one second, yeah, in terms of their rate hikes and dot plots, but the dollar has kind of sold off a bit, one second, right, yeah, so the dollar has sold off a bit last week and then it's kind of strengthened again this week and really all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivering his semi-annual testimony to Congress and so remember somebody asked me earlier basically what Powell is going to say or what I think is going to happen in relation to, you know, maybe some dollar strength for weakness, it's pretty much been planned out, you know, everything's kind of been expected and here this is a report from MUFG and they said basically everyone is expecting a strong hire for longer message from Powell but it is very hard to envisage this message resonating with the market in a dramatically different way to last week which we would sum up as skeptical acceptance, right, so the market was very skeptical with regards to the dot plot and the increased potential rate hikes that the Fed were forecasting, so we've, one second, so we've, where am I, sorry, it says with the incoming data between now and the July meeting being the true determinant of whether the FOMC hikes or not, so that's really the key, yeah, it's not really about what he says and Ken pretty much said it's a non-event today and I would probably have to agree with him, it's pretty started now isn't it, I think it's three o'clock, pretty much a non-event, it should be anyway, the data has to support the narrative so it doesn't matter what Jerome Powell says today, you know, it's all about, you know, whether inflation stays sticky, right, and so it says with just one non-farm payroll and CPR report before the July meeting we can't say with much confidence that the FOMC will not hike but by September we, we'd be much more confident of the FOMC being done hiking by then, so the US economy is not as strong as made out by the FOMC members and that should be apparent by then, in the meantime, beyond some modest US dollar and rate moves back and forth, the markets will likely await key data points to determine the Fed action absolutely, so the PCE inflation next week, the ISM and non-farm payrolls the following week and the CPI the week after, so pretty much have a roadmap, right, as to what the market is looking at as to determine whether the likelihood of a rate hike or not, right, in the coming, you know, July and September meetings and so this was just another, I guess from MUFG as well, I think it must have been the day before, pretty much just echoing the same sentiment and it says that we continue to believe that building evidence of disinflation pressures will discourage the Fed from following through on current plans to deliver two more hikes and see room for the US dollar to weaken further as the Fed becomes less hawkish, so they're basically betting on inflation coming down, but Goldman says market is too optimistic on the pace of US inflation drop, so this was from last week and inflation in the US won't come down as quickly as markets are currently pricing according to strategist Goldman Sachs Group and so they pretty much forecast stickier inflation compared to what the market is implying and so I know Ken and Igor have had their back and forth lately in the group with regards to who's gonna be right on the on the euro or the dollar and one of the things I would say about that it's always, you know, healthy to have these discussions and debates, Ken says he's going down I would I would say I don't know, right, I don't know who's why I could you can make the argument for both right I can understand the argument for the euro going higher based off of you know interest rates you know and then being quite hawkish and you can also make the the argument for the for the dollar as well if they do continue to hike and inflation remains sticky and also the fact that their economy is actually holding up better than the then Europe right and so Europe are actually in a technical recession the market doesn't seem to be you know caring about that at all so yeah the broker always wins either way right either way Daniel you absolutely 100% correct but just for those traders who are unsure on which way to trade the euro-dollar if you're unsure don't trade it that's pretty much the message right you're gonna have moments where things are not as clear on every single pair right just look for pairs where you know monetary policy divergences are a lot clearer right so for example recently with the New Zealand dollar going into a recession and you know the the RBNZ pretty much saying that they're not gonna hike it's a no-brainer to go short on the New Zealand dollar right that's pretty much you know a standard trade and a trade that I took last week it was the New Zealand dollar CAD the pound New Zealand I'm out of that trade now and I entered into a new short on the New Zealand yen which is now pretty much a break-even trade I can't lose from it I'm in some profit but I can't lose from that trade if you know that the second position stops me out right but the point being is that there are clearer trades then the New Zealand yen isn't necessarily the clearest trade in the world but something like the pound New Zealand was and the New Zealand CAD was because both the New Zealand sorry both the British and the Bank of England and the Canadian dollar Bank of Canada were hiking rates whereas the New Zealand dollar weren't right they come to the end of their hiking cycle and in fact they're now in a recession so it made sense to buy those over the New Zealand dollar right so look for the clearer trades if you know you don't have to trade Europe and you don't have to trade against the the the US dollar right and so there are you know it's not a one-way bet although there are you know that the market seems to not believe the Fed at all when it comes to hiking rates twice at least you know the data has to support that narrative right so next week as we do start to get CPI data and PC data that's gonna really determine what whether you do want to be a buyer of the dollar or not Ken says I don't think it's happened in the history of the Fed what's that what's that what what don't you think has happened in history the Fed there's that is that inflation is that within the Fed being right about inflation pause and then hike again okay interesting one but it's but you know what it is as well Ken other central banks are you know central banks tend to take either you know kind of cues from each other so with the Australian bank doing you know pausing then hiking with the with the Canadian dollar pausing for a long time and then hiking again it's possible that you know if we're looking at maybe global inflation global inflation fears you know because commodity prices good quality prices have kind of come down a bit but you know it was it was possible that the Fed could also look to hike in tandem with those central banks too so there was always the potential for them to do it they obviously paused and you know just because it's never happened in the past doesn't mean it can't happen in the future right there's always gonna be firsts but let's see what happens I think if inflation remains sticky then their mandate is to get inflation down to the 2% target so it wouldn't be a shock if they hiked again right it wouldn't be because other central banks have done it so let's let's see let's see what happens but yeah definitely keep a close eye on that what else was there so the ECB right moving on to Europe and so ECB rate hike in September wouldn't be a surprise Simcus says so European Central Bank governing council member Mr. Simcus said he wouldn't be surprised if officials if officials lift borrowing costs again after this summer so he's obviously you know very hawkish and I think the money market is as well so traders fully price 4% peak ECB rates for the first time since March so bets follow a hotter than expected inflation print in the UK and the ECB should never warned against complacency about inflation so again hawkish and so traders raised bet bets on further European Bank interest rate hikes after a hotter than expected inflation print in the UK bolstered the case for more tightening and so again going back to what we were talking about with regards to other central banks hiking in global inflation if you know if the if the UK I know they're kind of you know on the other side of the of the Atlantic and that but it could be a situation where if inflation remains sticky in several parts of the world the Fed might be thinking it might remain sticky you know in the States and so with that if European if traders a bit in that Europe is likely to hike rates and keep you know rates elevated to maybe 4% based off of just what's happening in the UK then it wouldn't surprise me if the Fed you know are thinking the same thing in terms of inflation being sticky so yeah money markets are fully pricing in a 4% terminal rate by October with a quarter point hike at next month's meeting seen as an almost a done deal according to swaps tied to policy meeting dates the last time such a level was priced was in March and so it says I just read this last paragraph is data released on Wednesday showed UK inflation remained higher than expected for a fourth month ratcheting up pressure on the Bank of England to hike rates more aggressively and keeping investors concerned about sticky consumer price growth worldwide so it's worldwide inflation that is an issue and that kind of segues quite nicely to in fact the UK so UK UK rates seen hitting 6% of the core inflation shock city investors are ratchet ratcheting up their expectations for Bank of England interest rate rises following the shock rise in core inflation so that's pretty much it the markets are pricing in the UK will hit 6% by December up from 4.5 today so that's still a lot of rate hikes by the way you know it's another 1.5% 150 basis points to price in so yeah today wasn't great and we have a core inflation as well which is one of the measures I think probably the key measure you got headline inflation you've got core inflation and you know core inflation is what central banks are really looking at and yeah core inflation seems to be rising so this is a huge problem for the Bank of England and the rest of us core inflation excluding food and energy is no longer just sticky it's actually heading in the wrong direction welcome Georgia just gonna mute you so that is you know whereas other central banks I think their inflation core inflation is slightly coming down just remaining sticky whereas you know the core inflation for the UK is actually you know rising so that's a major problem and so again this is from MUFG they said that their core for tomorrow was 25 basis points but they lean slightly more in favor of 50 basis points now given the terrible inflation print like before more aggressive action should help boost pound in the near term but investor concerns will likely build over the growth implications which will limit the scale of appreciation at higher levels possibly approaching the 130 1.3 level in the pound dollar and so that's an interesting point and it's something that I keep you know saying we can focus on interest rates and banks being hawkish and rotten hiking interest rates but the the council the downside to hiking rates is that you know you're you're contracting the economy because of borrowing and lending costs and in the UK you have quite a serious problem when it comes to mortgage rates right but before we get there says UK headed for recession if rates reach 6% economy says and it says Britain could tip into a shallow recession if the Bank of England pushes its benchmark lending rate to 6% as investors expect and then an analysis by Bloomberg economics show gross domestic product would shrink about 3.3% this year and by 1.4% in 2024 according to research based on Bank of England's SHOK model that assumes the central bank delivers 1.5 percentage points of hikes to the benchmark lending rate after the quickest tightening cycle in 40 years and it says our own view is that the the pricing is probably overdone says Dan Hansen an economist at the Bank of England I think that sounds for anyway BE or BOE's Bank of England so BE is probably something else wrote in a published no published today and it says BOE judge significance slump there was something else in here it says investors race to add more bets on higher rates over the past few weeks almost fully pricing in a surge to the highest level in two decades markets and now betting rate rises at least a quarter point on Thursday to 5% by August and almost 6% by February and this is it so it talks about what rates at that level would send mortgage rates further into territory the BOE has identified as painful for households with more than 1 million required to refinance loans at significantly higher costs this year and so and it would produce a contraction in GDP but a less severe one then suffered during the pandemic lockdowns or in 2009 in the wake of global financial crisis well I wouldn't expect it to you know to for that to contract the economy that much that was you know those are kind of black swan events but it would pose a challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak elections so again you know UK homeowners to phase 2,900 pound mortgage shot next year and I think that's actually quite on the low end of things if you know mortgage mortgage prices go up and this I just want to play this this video for anyone who is wondering why well you know you get pretty much the same thing everywhere right you got you know mortgage house prices kind of go up in all over the place and mortgages anyway mortgage rates but I just want to play this this this video which would explain pretty much why the UK kind of hurts a bit more when it comes to mortgage rates going higher due to basically you know refinancing and short refinancing terms but that's I'll play it now yeah let me know if you can hear it but I still hope that the Bank of England now isn't sort of springing into panic mode and thinking that they need to drastically change the outcome of their decision tomorrow but it's 50 basic points a drastic change I mean what what you know does that make more sense for them to actually hike more tomorrow and then wait and see how the July numbers come in I actually don't think so I think sticking with what would have probably everybody agreeing being the case before this inflation reading and sticking with a 25 basis point is still the right thing to do and I think the messaging from the Bank of England needs to be yes inflation came in a higher than consensus expectations but that is because it is taking time for the hiking we've already done to feed through and it's very important to remember that the Bank of England has a trickier job to manage the housing market and the mortgage situation and other developed to market central banks like the ECB like the Fed the situation the one more precarious in the UK meaning that if mortgages go too high then they they could have a recession on their hands because of the number of mortgages available and the fact that they roll over right every exactly it's relatively unusual to have the situation in the UK where you know a five year fixed mortgage is actually considered a long-term fix it's very unusual in the US in France in in Germany and a lot of the European markets you can fix a mortgage for the duration of it so here the pain is going to be a lot more stark once that time comes which I think is going to be later this year and into 2024 yeah so pretty much a lot of you know people are gonna be you know have to their their refinance their mortgages and their terms of their mortgages are coming to an end this year hence you know you're gonna have gonna have issues right and a lot of people you know if you're like a two-year mortgage for example a two-year term and you know two years ago interest rates were probably somewhere like maybe half a percent or something like that right so let's go to the countries United Kingdom and you look at interest rates even just looking at it from a from a year ago right he's looking at 1% from 20 April 2022 a year and a year and a bit ago yeah so if you if you were pretty much you know started your mortgage in 2021 where you know rates are pretty much at rock bottom and now you've got you know refinance remortgage the terms you're now thinking to yourself oh my days pretty much you'll find yourself up here right so and that's gonna hurt a lot more UK homeowners in terms of repayments on their interest and so with that where was I was I was I was I was I yep that is pretty much the UK at the moment I think short-term short-term the UK should still be a buy on the hawkish central bank but one of the things to look towards when you know looking at the peak of the UK and weather and buying the pound is when you start to see really the the interest rates take effect and that's what she was saying as well because there is a lag which we spoke about this last week and in the past few weeks is that the lag in interest rates on the economy and the effective interest rates on the economy lags and so you know later on this year they're expecting that to actually show its head and hence the reason why she thinks that in fact the Bank of England should only really raise by 25 basis points rather than 50 because we're yet to see the effect of interest rates in the economy and so yeah it's a it's a difficult one for the for the Bank of England but in currency land while they're still hiking I think any pullbacks on the pound at least in the short term is still a buy and so I wanted to actually go on to just the Australian dollar hawkish expectations adjusted and so there was this article many of you probably noticed that the the Australian dollar sold off at pretty much the beginning of the week and it was mainly due to this so it said and I'll just make the make this a bit bigger it says the close nature of the decision and strong case for a pause prompted traders to pair bets that the RBA will hike twice this year twice by year end right so they were basically potentially pricing out or pair it I was actually I wouldn't say pricing out but they were kind of maybe a bit more cautious that they will hike twice this year which is basically what had been expected ever since they did their surprise hike the Australian dollar dropped the most in three weeks and the yield on policy censored sensitive three-year notes erased a gain of as much as six basis points while stocks extended gains and so because you know the Bank of the Reserve Bank of Australia weren't you know super hawkish the market was like hmm maybe there might be some doubt in you know their pricing but going to the RBA tracker it looks like so far this is the latest day I said the 19th although it's the 21st one second let me just refresh the page well it's still saying the the 19th and so it's still at 51 percent as of two days ago so that might have come down a bit when they do update this so let's see what happens with that but I don't think that the Australian dollar is a sell although looking at for example China and they did end up cutting rates but I don't think the rate cuts were enough and so it says so far today the rate cuts one second we just zoom in it's so far today rate cuts isn't breathing life into risk assets and perhaps quite the opposite if you look at if you look over to the Chinese one and anti-dog peons anti-podians sorry itself Aussie dollar is down point seven percent and the upside run starts to lose momentum after nearly touching six six point six nine cent at the end of the last week it's about the equities and it says that could be the markets way of saying that the rate cuts are telling of more problems than it being more sorry I read that again that could be the markets way of saying that the rate cuts are telling of more problems than it being a solution to China's recent economic struggles and so as I've said before I think for me to be out and out bullish you know on the trade idea of China I'd have to really see some data support that so far the Australian dollar is being supported really by you know the hawkish RBA but I do think that any pullbacks in the with the Australian dollar I think are buying opportunities still although it's not being supported by China at the moment they are still hawkish and inflation is still to the upside right and you know labor demand unemployment is still very low yeah so Australia's job vacancies are still high and unemployment is low and they need that actually to reverse in order to get inflation down or to help to get inflation down anyway so for me Australia is still a buy so this could be some nicer buying opportunities looking at Canada and Canada continues to be for me a buy there was some news where did I put it it was the retail sales I know I think Ken posted it right yeah so Canadian consumers keep on spending despite rate hikes and so retail sales jump 1.1% and are on track to rise again so Bank of Canada still trying to slow demand and curb inflation so as long as you know Canadian says Canadian consumers showed little sign of slowing down with stronger than expected spending at the beginning of the second quarter seen holding firm in May and so the data suggests that Canadian consumers were still dining out traveling and spending on major purchases such as cars their resilience defied expectations that countries deeply indebted households would respond more quickly and negatively to an aggressive hike campaign of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada strong economic momentum since the central bank declared a pause in January prompted policymakers to raise the benchmark overnight rate again to 4.75% earlier this month the move upended markets right so no one was really expecting that and swaps traded are ramping up bets on another rate hike at the bank of at the banks next meeting on July the 12th and so again this is what you're seeing is the data supporting a narrative right so you have a strong Canadian economy pretty much defying expectations and so why wouldn't the Bank of Canada continue to hike if they can what's it if they can why wouldn't it continue to hike in the face of high inflation because the economy can support it right and in fact economies doing really well so why not hike because it doesn't seem to be affecting the consumer right they're still spending money so and yeah they're hot there they should be hawkish or the markets hawkish on the Canadian dollar right so coming off a strong first quarter of consumer spending a second consecutive monthly move higher is not what the Bank of Canada will be looking for as it hopes to slow domestic demand and they need domestic demand to slow so that they can get inflation down right so Randall Bartlett senior director of Canada Canadian economics at the Zardin's security said in the report to investors so although it's saying that the Bank of Canada doesn't doesn't you know doesn't want that to happen of course they don't because they want inflation to come down but as you know if I'm buying the the the Canadian dollar then in fact I do want it to keep going higher right it's a trade in the opposite way but but yeah this is some positive news so again if you're in any Canadian dollar trades then why come out of that trade especially you know if you're if you're training against and you should be training against currency that is you know objectively weaker one second I just go to the comments and Ken says maybe I should listen to Igor and sell CAD and Euro be dollar based on the price yeah yeah I don't get that that dollar CAD trade idea I saw that as well and I was thinking I don't really want to get involved in that but it's Igor's money of course you know and yeah I don't want to say that but yeah it's not the strongest divergence in the world I get I get why you would want to buy the dollar right in terms of I can see the positives around the dollar but again when choosing what you want to trade against the dollar you know I think the Canadian dollar was probably one of the worst trades you know or currencies you could have could have taken you know like I said you know the New Zealand dollar even the Japanese yen you know could have been one yeah not many people do Ken but but yeah anyways let's the Canadian dollar for me is still a buy so Aussie CAD yen so again stovish way there's still there was some talk and there's always going to be talk about this your curve control when it comes to Japan and the potential for a shift you know still many economists say that say every meeting could result in sudden change in shift in your curve control has come as a surprise to avoid massive bond-sell-offs before an official announcement and so yeah there's there's what was it it's a bank of Japan board member hinted at the need to consider revising your curve control program how many times have you heard that it's like the boy who cried wolf I don't know if many of you or anyone knows that story or people that don't know the story the boy who cried wolf does anyone not know that story does anyone not know that story all right everyone yeah everyone knows it right it's basically that's what it is right Daniel the boy quad wolf is just you don't know the boy who cried wolf George right okay so just pretty much on a very short story is basically there was a town and there was a boy there was there was a wolf there was a wolf that was terrorizing the town right and this young boy you know wanting to play a joke on the town and so they would have a system where you know if you saw the wolf you would cry wolf right so the boy for it'd be funny to to cry wolf right so you cried wolf and all the townspeople came out and there was no wolf and then the boy said haha I fooled you all fooled you all right so he did it a second time everyone came out and he said haha fooled you again fooled you again he did it a third time now of course people the towns people said oh it's him again saying it's wolf in fact the third time it really was a wolf yeah and the wolf ate him yeah so the point being is basically story time with Leon so the more the story is yeah you know we don't that you know the moral of the story is basically don't cry wolf in it you know I mean like if you don't lie about things and I'll say people are lying but you know people are less likely to believe if you keep saying you know your curve control is happening in May your curve control is happening in June your curve control is happening in July and in fact it might happen in July right but do you believe you know when when people are saying that your curve control is going to happen if it happens as long as we don't get eaten you know I'm meaning we're still alive then cool but as far as you know us believing the story in July that it's going to happen it's one of those things where okay all right then maybe if it does if it does happen then cool do you know what they start to adjust your curve control we're not gonna miss out we might not catch the absolute high but what we will do is at least catch some of them you know I mean when there is a pullback so yeah that's that story time I'm not really a good story teller unfortunately but yeah I hope you enjoyed it but yeah that's basically Japan so yes there is always your curve control potentially ending in July or adjusting but for me I did get into the New Zealand yen on a stop-hunt in anticipation of a potential you know move it was again a small position but I don't actually expect it to I wouldn't advise anyone else to kind of start buying the yen against other currencies but I just figured that if I'm gonna buy the yen and maybe try and get ahead of you know this story that may or may not you know play out then I think the New Zealand dollar is gonna would be the the best trader you know because the New Zealand dollar you know one of the weakest right so that would be the trade but if we're talking about you know euro yen at the moment and looking to you know short the yen against the euro or buy the yen against the euro it's not something that I would I would personally do or against you know the Canadian dollar or against you know the Swiss franc it's not something I would actually advise it's not really on my list of things to do so small position on the end just in case but I'm a break even now so I can't lose on the trade but overall I would say Japan is still a sell on the sell side New Zealand still a sell don't think anything's gonna really happen with that anytime soon unless you again you start we start to get some good data supporting in fact the fact that they might be coming out of a recession who knows or the central bank is looking to hike again as we start their hiking cycle then things kind of you know change but until that happens as long as the RBNZ is still you know holding rates and not looking to hike rates then I think the New Zealand dollar is a continued sell the Swiss national bank there was this article which came out I think maybe a day or two ago and it was really just talking about you know Switzerland has the lowest inflation of any advanced economy still the Swiss National Bank president Thomas Jordan recently warned that price pressures prove more sticky than expected and therefore the fight is not over yet so he's still very very hawkish very hawkish and again it's very surprising I spoke about this last week you know typically you have central banks once they reach there or close to their 2% target what they what should happen is that they kind of let inflation get to their 2% target naturally and start to hold rates and not hike but you know he's inflation is pretty much at 2% and they're still looking to hike so he sees something as problem but he doesn't want inflation to be a problem again so he wants to just make sure inflation is so low you know way beyond their 2% target maybe a 1% target before actually holding but while there they continue to actually remain hawkish the Swiss National Bank has to be or the Swiss Bank has to be a buyer right so you look at where you know everyone else is in terms of say everyone but you know at least the Fed and the ECB when it comes to their their monetary policy and where they are and yeah inflation it doesn't it doesn't you know you think to yourself we're still quite low but yeah it's a strange one there was something in here as well it said interest rate hike from a level of 1.5% Swiss officials increased the borrowing costs and while the impetus to catch up with his peers aggressively they also insist the Switzerland isn't out of danger even though inflation is slow to 2.2% an underlying measure that strips out volatile as that's core inflation so Jordan said quite clearly inflation pressures are still here I said Alessandro be an economist at UBS and I'll be very surprised that they don't leave the door open for another rate hike and more foreign exchange selling so that's still very hawkish B reckons a bigger half-point move one that would outpace recent action by the ECB might confuse investors given Switzerland's more benign inflation backdrop and so he said I'm like why could rather imagine it's a 25 basis point step down but intensifying foreign exchange sells to make money to policy sufficiently restrictive in cataract risks of price pressures and so yeah says the SMB will opt for more somewhat larger step now to compensate in advance he said we believe the window of opportunity for hikes will close in July or August so they put the ending around there because the ECB and the Fed will then be at the end of their tightening cycle so again the central banks moving you know in tandem with each other so I think that's pretty much it for all the all the banks Australia Canada Eurozone Japan New Zealand Switzerland UK and the United States I think we've covered that all so where are we when it comes to oh as well just from looking at Canada where was Canada again right so looking back at Canada it looks like they are there is a 96% chance the probability that the Bank of Canada hike I don't know whether whether they're whether they're next rate hike opportunity or meeting is actually in September I think they might be one before that but either way September it says 96% chance of a 25% basis point hike which is obviously quite hawkish right so if it's 96% it must be at least a hundred percent if there's a meeting before that doesn't want to if there's a meeting before that by the way you go says sell the CAD though I know I know I know you go see something that we don't but he could be right you know he could be right there's a probabilistic game I don't know whether is his likelihood of being right you know against the market I mean it just depends in it but yeah so there's that also as well something to keep an eye on going back to the to the US dollar it looks like the market is pricing in also it's increased 81% in July so July that's definitely at the moment at the moment 81% remember this can go up and down and so once the data comes out so don't think today is the day that okay we're definitely going to remain at 80 and 80% probability of a rate hike in July if inflation measures you know start to come down drastically then this is going to come down drastically because ultimately you know the Fed are less likely to high crates if there's not an inflation problem where patient is naturally coming down so yep it does look quite hawkish at the moment and supportive of the dollar but the real test will be you know the inflation measures next week and so with that being said I think I will go to the spreadsheet and pairs so let's grab the pencil in fact let's go to was the right so we've got at number two we've got the New Zealand dollar I think anything's really changed the Canadian dollars number one Australia still number two as well New Zealand's is ranked number two number four do we have any four's no so fives we have the dollar was number five and the pound is number five as well two sixes which is euro and I think the yen should be ranked number six yep and number eight is going to be the Swiss francs so when looking at where we are the currency value cycle with the Canadian dollar being number one yeah it has to be on the currency appreciation and right I think number two as well for the Australian dollar although we've had a pullback I do think that it should want to appreciate I think that decent buying opportunities but we have number two New Zealand dollar over here which I think is definitely on the currency devaluation and of things based based off of just recession and the fact that they're not they're not looking to high crates number fives was it number fives was the US and and the UK and I do think that the UK is on the still on the reevaluation end the US I'm on the fence with the US I think the US is going to be here right so it's it's neither on the devaluation or reevaluation end I think again that that really depends on whether inflation goes higher or lower but I'm sitting kind of on the fence with that dollar euro and the yen I think the euro is again there were there are reasons to buy the euro because they are hawkish but keep one eye on their economy and if their recession starts to get worse or there are you know measures economic measures where it's manufacturing that starts to contract and services etc then it basically means that the they may have to actually not hike as much and can't afford to be as hawkish because they might send their economy into the contraction phase sooner right so here it pretty much is where it says actually no that doesn't that's not really it but yeah but basically keep an eye on the GDP when it comes to euro but for now I think euro is on the reevaluation end and what was the other one Japan Japan is over here but again we could get a massive surprise in terms of your curve control but unless they actually do it now I think it really should be around here or at least probably if you're if you're very bullish on that yen then probably somewhere around here as well maybe just in between reevaluation and devaluation and then we've got the Swiss franc which is ranked number eight but because mr. Jordan is very hawkish has to be here on the reevaluation and so when looking at pairs to kind of trade you're pretty much looking at buying the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar still the euro the pound and the Swiss franc on the fence I guess you could be on the fence with the dollar and potentially look to sell the Japanese yen but with one eye on potential your curve control so you may or may not want to you know buy that in fact if you if you're thinking about your curve control coming into play then you could actually look at the read that being a reevaluation as well so the yen is a very tricky one at the moment but I wouldn't you know if you're not wrong for selling it and you're not wrong for buying it at the moment same thing with the with the dollar you're not wrong for selling a dollar at the moment but you're not wrong for necessarily buying it either I think the only really out and out sell at the moment is gonna be the New Zealand dollar New Zealand NZD is the clearest sell for me currently so that's really where where I would I would look to the currencies that I'm I'm trading against so yep once we've done that you can then oh sorry guys one second one second one second one second I've done share screen yeah yeah cool yeah can you guys see my screen up you see my screen yep all right brilliant so all right that being said going back to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet I don't think nothing has changed right so pretty much selling the New Zealand dollar anticipation of potential yen strength if they change your curve control I did put it on the watch this from last week if you watched the weekend video I did put that on there but I think everything else is probably in place so again just short short in the New Zealand dollar buying the Swiss Frank New Zealand straight the dollar yen again watch list because you could make it an argument for Eva same thing with the euro dollar same thing with the pound dollar Aussie yen based off of just interest rate divergences you can look for a definite buy say a definite buy but you know I'll say I'll be more long your Australian dollar than I would be on the then the year then the yen but again you could make the argument that you know pretend to get ahead of the curve by the end dollar Swiss watch list in fact I might just take that take it off I'll take it off matter of fact really interested in that pair pound Aussie nope New Zealand cad I'm in that news as a sell Aussie Swiss nothing cad yen again just interest rate divergences you can definitely look to buy that Aussie New Zealand that is a yeah that's a long trade there's a nice stop-hunt coming up by the way on that Swiss yen again long based off of interest rate divergences currently and New Zealand dollar had it on the watch list in fact that actually worked out to be quite quite a decent trade from last week into this week on the short side and if you was looking to buy the dollar again what's weaker than the dollar right has to be the New Zealand dollar and that's why I put it on the on the watch list because I was thinking that there's there's an opportunity to kind of buy the dollar versus the New Zealand dollar and actually worked out but I didn't get involved in that trade I got involved in the New Zealand yen again pound yen and Euro yen are trades that based off of interest rate divergence you'd want to more likely to go long on those pairs then you would go short so so yep that's pretty much it now there are some questions and chart analysis and that was a question from I think it might have been George said highly on so from my understanding right now dollar is not so bullish and not too bearish exactly great analysis so basically we're waiting for the data to give us a better picture as markets don't believe the Fed's hawkishness very astute very very good analysis my question is if the data is very negative for the dollar for example let's say GDP is negative for one quarter indicating possible recession will the dollar have gains in a safe haven in that event so I understand that the you know sometimes where you have the dollar acting as a safe haven against itself which is crazy because I think it was during the banking crisis you know there were there were there was a theme that the dollar was a buy even though you know I think it was you know what bank was it again all the banks you know a couple of the banks that had collapsed you know was seen as a as a risk off event but yet you would buy the dollar right so it was it was quite confusing because why would you want to buy the dollar in that in that situation so for me I wouldn't buy the dollar going into a recession if it was going to recession is I think there's a lot of institutions that are heavily or trying to get short on that dollar because the short dollar trade idea something that really should have happened from maybe March April times at least and it hasn't materialized because the dollar the economy has been better than expected and also as well the inflation has been stickier than expected so I do feel that sorry there's there's what I do feel but there's a lot of reports that come out and that was saying that second half should be where the dollar does decline where the beginning of the second half of the year now pretty much you know mid-June heading into July so this is possibly the beginnings of the dollar decline but again that has to be supported by the data but to answer the question if they start to go into a recession right and they're the only ones going into a recession typically you probably want to sell the dollar but if there's a global recession and everyone else is also tipping into a recession then in fact it becomes a case of well who you know where do you want to put your money if everyone else is going into a recession and in that case then the dollar does typically act as a risk of safe haven play and then money will tend to flow into the dollar because you know it's like saying well do you if I said if everyone else is going into a recession there's a global recession then where's when am I gonna get the most bang for my buck when I'm gonna you know where's my money kind of gonna be quite safe and so they'll look at you know everyone and say dog with the least fleas and go all right let's let's put our money into back into US dollars you know rather than putting it into maybe you know Canadian dollars or New Zealand dollars or Australian dollars right so that in that case that's where it acts as a safe haven silicone value bank that was it SVB yeah makes sense all right brilliant excellent excellent so there was also there was also well I was there there was someone with some feedback on some charts right I think it was Deirdre Deirdre Deirdre CPR feedback and if anyone's got any charts by the way please post them or send them in this in this chat so that I can give you some some feedback on the charts right now so CPR trade now this is an interesting one because it's quite a deep one right so you got the Australian dollar US dollar and quite a nice move from the upside so I'm just gonna get my pencil right so typically what you'd want to see is you will you want to see the breakout traders get involved in this yeah which they are and then you want to see the retracement traders get caught on the wrong side and then the move to the upside yeah because one of the key things is that you don't want these traders to be able to basically make any money from the trade or be able to get out of the trade now there is every possibility that these breakout traders who got in around here managed to make some money as prices continue to go down and also as well with tradesmen traders who got in up here made some money on the way down right so if they've got out of the trade that out of that trade then it means less traders are caught in their positions because they got they would have exited their position and they wouldn't be in the market anymore so from the perspective of you know is this a see a typical CPR I would say no but there are always going to be traders that are going to be trapped and so there is a level right there where traders would have more breakout traders would got involved right here yeah so you can see where breakout traders got involved there and then prices start to now go against them so although I wouldn't necessarily call this level a CPR I would call this level a CPR so it really kind of starts from here and especially I'm not sure whether this area here actually you know looking back if that has a historical level where prices have kind of bounced off it quite aggressively or vertically then that would definitely be something I would be interested in I'd have to double check that but but yeah because this is an eight hour chart right here you can you know that on the lower time frame just to clear this you know that on a lower time frame that would that level would have looked actually quite enticing yeah in terms of you know quite the defined in terms of like breakout traders looking at the level in order to get short and then we get that reversal so I think it really starts really towards the lower and so the 65 round number I think is where and maybe just above that is where you probably want to look for trade right there so that is the feedback for that I don't think Deidre is in the group at the moment oh if she is here she is here she is one second one second guys let's get Deidre where is she Deidre can you hear me Deidre can you hear me we just went over I'll wait for her to hear me if she can hear me or if she can see the respond if she does then I'll go back to it but yeah that's pretty much it what else was there what else was there in terms of feedback did anyone else have any charts by the way that they wanted me to go over I can do that yes Alexandra's how you doing I want to apologize for something today I put our intraday post I got carried away by the CPA and that happened and it didn't turn out because I did get carried away and I want to you know the newer guys how easy it can get carried away even though that the fundamental is with us I forgot to look at the daily chart that how strong and and possibly strong chances that the people were liquid taking liquidation and profit taking which is why we had a strong pullback despite the strong data inflation from from the UK yeah it's a wrong I was hoping there was a nice top hunt there but intraday only was just an intraday trade right nobody keep it seriously you know okay yeah alright I normally get them right but today I got so carried I forgot that we're in a such a high position and that it was it was definitely liquid hunting all the way down not not to worry at all right and really I mean no one really should be taking anyone else's trades as a signal right and what you what you pointed out was was actually a stop hunt right so it was an example and so when we go to the dollar right what you were saying was it's pretty much let me go to so where was it what was that a 15 minute so where was it was it would have been somewhere what around here was that was it there or am I one second let me go back to I went to the one seven yeah one seven one point seven six it was a stop like all that role 15 minute time frame intraday we're just a quick intraday time frame mainly do yeah and it just came slamming down right when the news came out I was it went up I waited for it to pull back again and when it pulled back I was waiting for a stop hunt it came down but didn't return back in it did not return back in just 15 minute time frame nothing nothing being it was just a quick quick setup oh no you know net dad no need to apologize no need to apologize at all one second I'm just trying to move this out the way and just actually see something so right let me just go back to the chart so that was a one point two seven fives so one point two seven fives pound dollar one point two seven fives I think yeah I think probably that yeah the stop point was probably somewhere around on a 15 minute chart they would have had something there as far as a level like I waited for it to pull back like the news came out it was just right I was waiting for the dad to come out when up came back I was waiting for the pullback I was expecting a stop hunt okay down but it came down and never put back yeah yeah also as well and as you and as you rightly mentioned as well is we're never taking intraday trades try not to trade at the highs so one of the things you know I I look towards in terms of value right because in expensive and cheap and bargain prices or just fair value I got carried away yeah I know I knew with the highs ago it would be a quick trade like it was a small loss it was nothing but yeah it was an example how sometimes we just get carried away like I knew with the highs in the long term like Great Britain has been overpriced like you can see on all the time all its pay as it's you know everything's been priced yeah it was yeah I mostly got carried away with it after the CPI data waiting for that pullback he came back and I was expecting sort of like that like he happened it came down but that it was so strong the cinema so strong hmm it just took a slam down and yeah yeah and the thing is I kind of mentioned I mentioned this as well I think it will come over who it was I think it might have been Mr. Diligent but as you said you knew that when you were sometimes when we get into trades and then when we kind of lose a trade and it then instantly it hits us it's like oh my days you know I should never have taken that trade because and everything starts to come to you it happens don't worry about you know I mean but the but the actual setup itself yeah I can see actually was a was a good setup right you can see where you've got your support and resistance you know I mean and it confirmed like I said the only problem is the only issue with that as you've you know said is that it it's it's at a high right and so if it's all the way up here if you zoom out on the daily you're pretty much buying at these highs I mean you haven't even really got you know fair any kind of fair value even from a two week fair value perspective you haven't got that and you know for me I'm you know that's the absolute minimum I kind of prefer the monthly moving fair value but I know traders you know don't necessarily want to wait that long for the monthly moving fair value to kind of hit so I introduced the two week and I found that the two week actually is really quite accurate when it comes to you know supporting you know supportive trades on the intraday and so just if you do you know learn from Alexander's his mistake learn from everybody everybody's mistakes why they say you know anyone can learn from their own mistakes but the wise man learns from others and so you know Alexander's is gracious enough to to basically you know admit that obviously the trade didn't work out and the reasons why and I think you know Alexander's for that brilliant but and it's a it's a learnable and it's teachable moment right so from that perspective whenever entering into any trades and you see a stop hunt or a CPR really up at highs or lows just take a moment to zoom out on the daily and go where am I you know am I you know trading around highs where is fair or potential measures of fair value yeah moving fair value or even if you're just looking at it from you know a high a low high a high perspective right so you got high low a high yeah so if that's an absolute bargain price because it led to new highs then if we're looking at where fair value is one sec yeah if we're looking at where fair value is is from the perspective of this is expensive this is your first bargain where is fair value and it looks like fair value which is 50% of this high and this low is going to be right where they're actually that too weak moving fair value is so that's the moving fair value and that's the auction fair value yeah as the setup as you're saying that it is like it's you do get carried away it was the data that came out that which which I knew it would be because it was a strong supplies open on top you know because things were coming down on a daily time perspective yeah and I got and I go okay you know maybe intraday it'll probably come back out or maybe sellers will come back in and bring it down again but we get carried away you know like I got it was basically the data that got me excited from the inflation data like UK's inflation is not it's just thinking like bad and it's gonna take a lot for it to come down and that's why I got carried away yeah that's why I said okay if it comes to these numbers I'm gonna react but if it comes even slightly lower I'll probably just think about and see what happens but it came high and I and I finally realized I was wrong and you know what you you you weren't wrong do you know what it was with Elizondo if you're not wrong I don't think in your in your analysis because it makes sense to go long but it's just the timing right and and what in the and the timing in terms of just understanding where you're looking to buy and I guess you were used as liquidity right so the market a lot of retail traders would have looked at today and said oh do you know what same thing that you did you know inflation came in higher than expected it's a buy not realizing that in fact you know the smart money there was probably a whole load of liquidity below here yeah and as I always say it there's not enough liquidity above the market so if you're looking to buy there needs to be enough sellers above the market to facilitate the buying and if there isn't enough sellers above the market guess where it's gonna go it's gonna take you all out take everyone else out below the market yeah grab all the liquidity below yeah but still continue because it because because nothing has changed right the Bank of England is still likely to high crates but you know what in the short term I might as well just take out all the liquidity behind but below the market and then I'll be on my way so that's pretty much what it looks like is happening at the moment so and that's why I always I always say no matter what just wait for that pullback I know for example in that euro dollar um I think it was Igor was was trying to convince me to go long and I said well even if I do want to go long on on the euro dollar I still got to wait for decent prices I still have to wait for the price you know I mean I'm not fomoing in you know I've done it too many times over the years you know um to learn you know that that that behavior as much as I might necessarily I might win from opinion prices might still go higher right I'd rather be patient and wait for a pullback into a setup for going um long because understanding that you know you're buying at highs um is just not what I'm you know I'm gonna do enough I have to stay disciplined that's what discipline's all about right is trying not to fomo recognizing first of all to fomo the emotions and then going against that because every time you do that you just basically build that disciplined muscle and then um you know you you get it gets easier but if you're always gonna um go against you know and and give into your emotions when it comes to trading then you're just not going to learn the discipline yours and we will buy your emotions so but it happens we all have slips you know we all do I do um but it's recognizing it and just saying okay you know slap on the wrist don't do it again and then just do better next time you know I mean but don't be hard on yourself though don't be hard on yourself you're human we're all human and we do do these things um but thank you rex I'll add exon just really really appreciate that really appreciate that feedback um what else is there does anyone else want to talk about any charts oh did you cover mine for that I came in yes yes did I did cover it right and I will and I will cover it again um because because yeah because you um you came in just as I had finished just as I finished the analysis and um yeah so what I'm going to say is this so um right the let me just get the pen tool up so this is a good chart but I think you've just drawn that the cpr slightly in the wrong place and here's the reason why is because you've got a nice level here right nice accurate level and then you've got breakout traders that get involved here yeah which is excellent then you've got the retracement traders that get involved here now one of the key things you you must um have is that these traders must not be allowed to exit their trade in terms of you know uh taking profit yeah so retracement traders and breakout traders would have made money as prices came all the way down to here yeah so anyone who's got in up here is probably looking to take profit at least to some degree down here retracement traders taking profit down here yeah whereas what you really want to see and then we go back a bit yeah is for example something like this where you get the retracement traders come in and then prices go against them so breakout traders are in price goes you know further down the retracement traders come in but it doesn't allow them to really make much money and then you see something like that then you get the pullback because then you know that these guys are still caught in their positions but as prices head down here these guys had the opportunity to make money these guys had the opportunity to make money so how many traders are really caught in their positions here if they've exited the market not not many right but but but but but there are traders that will be caught at this level here because that is an obvious level that breakout traders would also want to get involved in yeah and so when you start to see that happen you know that breakout traders are here so rather than putting it you know the level as up here I would rather I know that traders are caught down at these areas if they haven't pretty much blown up their account you know as prices are going against them up here right but there's going to be traders institutions that are going to be caught down here and that's really where you want to look for the level so that's where it is although I definitely understand why you did put it here but following it through you can see that these traders would have been able to exit their trades with a nice little profit and then they would have they would have gone but these guys down here I think would be still be caught does that make sense makes a lot of sense yeah so much no I'm just glad I'm I'm getting better at this because when I was marking stuff out before you're like oh dear god you need to look at the zone so that's that's that's that's that's the point right and just keep doing that the repetition watch the videos over and over again keep sending over the charts getting the feedback improving and you'll see in the improvement right yeah of course yeah excellent no problem I actually like it a lot so excellent excellent also as well one of the things that you have to be aware of is that that level doesn't necessarily look even though it's it's great from a local perspective whenever looking at a level of a cpr for more confluence what you want to do is if let's say for example off the chart somewhere you did have a big rejection off of that level that aligns with this support and resistance then that would add some brilliant confluence because it means that there's a lot more traders looking to trade at this level because you have a bounce there and they're looking at this area in the past as to why they would want to you know I mean take a trade here or take at least a breakout trade here so if you can zoom out as well and try to see with any kind of a cpr level or just to support resistance level where traders have been caught if that level's been traded in the past yeah and that adds extra confidence and confidence thanks so much sounds great no worries no no problem at all so uh was there anything else was there anything else uh any charts or anything like that that you wanted to and i wanted to go over one second i think i've just covered up the chat right so let me go back through the chat um one second oh ken's ribbon um ego i see yeah please don't make it personal though guys please don't make it personal it's only uh you know we we can have ideas trade ideas and i was saying this ego um before that you know there were times where you know i might be long a currency you might be short a currency and try not to turn it into a competition where it's like well i was right and you were wrong or you were wrong and i was right you know it's it's not really that because there were reasons to but i can i can understand the reasons to buy the dollar and i can understand reasons to sell the dollar so and the same thing with the euro and so when you have a situation like that um you know both of you could be right at different times yeah both of you can be right at different times depending on how you time and where you're taking the trade but um but yeah i would say if you can um refrain from uh what's the word i'm looking for or just just be mindful do you know i mean of of um i guess the uh the competition or the competition but you know i mean just the the the banner that goes on between you both and i know it's banter but maybe other people may not understand it as being bantered you know i mean so um and i know you guys have been here for a for a while and you have a you have a relationship but yeah maybe others don't so uh so yeah george no problem take care this is recorded as well so um i'll post a recording afterwards um yeah i know it's all good ego i know it's all good and like i said i know i know the uh the banter's there but yeah just be be mindful that maybe not everybody might see us yes rudy one how you doing yeah i have a question hello hello yes yeah um you were saying um the the ucat would have been the worst pair to trade i was trying to figure out what like why okay because the reason why is because you have a canadian dollar that is seen as being strong so i'm not sure if he was in the group when i was going over the canadian analysis yeah i was i was there yeah okay so yeah so so pretty much you're pretty much seeing that kind of play out right so i i understand the the um you know the the level yeah so it looks really nice from a from a stop hunt perspective looks really really nice you've got you know actually a very accurate level as well here yeah so just right there and when you get really accurate levels yeah it's a sign that institutions are there yeah manufacturing the level and so okay so when you get something accurate like this how many how many eyeballs are going to be on that that's uh you know a a supply and demand to a support and resistance traders wet dream right you know i mean they're going to see that and go this is perfect this is perfect perfect perfect perfect so but the but but the problem is we've just we've just technicals as we know is that um you need the fundamentals behind it and so when you see and that's with every single setup not just support and resistance trading that's with stop hunts after cprs that's with supply and demand there's no technical setup that's going to stand in the way of fundamental analysis none you can have that you can have the the most accurate the most the best a one self but if the market which is driven by valuations and supply and demand and things like that and positioning if the market doesn't think that that is a bargain based off of interest rates inflation you know i mean it's just that's it it's just not going to work it's not going to work and so what you're seeing now is that play out right and so you know looking at the dollar yeah with the fed and i get it you know they are looking to high crates twice yeah but again the market doesn't necessarily believe them right the data needs to support the narrative so right now we're in a situation where the market is basically going hmm i don't know i don't think so or some are saying that they do right but there's more uncertainty around the dollar when you look at the canadian dollar for example where they're you know they're uh uh they're their economies doing well we had some good data today in in relation to retail sales um the bank of canada is still hawkish um do you know what i mean it's like yeah well well this is this well my thing was i wasn't i wasn't i mean i was bullish on the canadian dollar you know because the bear you know in a bank analyst you know they they analyzed it to go to you know 130 so um you know i wasn't bearish like what i'm trying to understand is so rude when you've cut out you've just cut out you said what you were trying to understand was and then you've cut out oh there was no technical setup oh okay okay yeah well this technically it would have been the would have been the setup and i think this is what um i think might have been ego had gone for right so you do have this as a as a stop hunt setup for sure okay for sure yeah very accurate level very you know uh clean on the daily once it closed back inside the level that's it right that's it all right but based off of what you said fundamentally why would you buy the US dollar against the canadian dollar yeah it doesn't make any sense why even if it is technically setting up so that's that's where i was lost that right okay i mean i've seen a trade i thought it would go bearish and it went bearish so i'm trying to figure out uh why would why would the stop the would be valid at that point or no right i mean it it's valid in terms of technically but whether it's going to follow through or not is the question and the follow through is where the fundamentals come into play and fundamentally i wouldn't i wouldn't have expected this to follow through the only time i expect this to follow through is if either a you know inflation is sticky and comes out higher than expected yeah um next week or if the canadian dollar for example has you know some slips chips and falls in terms of their inflation and their economy yeah but at the moment if we're looking at divergences and what are the best you know uh pairs to trade the dollar card wouldn't necessarily be on my list it was actually it wouldn't necessarily it's it's not on my list of things to trade right it's not there because there's there's no i see you just yeah the edge the edge exactly they're there they're up there even though the the fundamentally it makes sense yeah there's no setup then there's no really reason so yeah and and if i was and if i was going to take that trade in the direction it would be in that direction as you said because i think the canadian dollar is an out and out buy yeah it's probably the best currency to buy at the moment which is reflected by its number one status and so if i was trading that pair my bias would actually be to the downside as you said you know to go back to you know the the 130s right somewhere around here yeah so that yeah that that would be my bias if i was going to be a buyer or a seller of this currency pair but again i think there are better pairs to to trade and um and so i've kind of stayed out of uh i've stayed out of that one so it was i think it was it was the only reason why i mentioned it was because um i think uh what was it again i think yeah ken mentioned that ego had taken the trade so yeah i was i was just saying that it's something that i personally wouldn't have you know i personally wouldn't have taken but there's trades that i would have taken that have lost and there's trades that i haven't taken that would have won right nobody knows you know from trade from individual trade to individual trade you know what is going to win and what's going to lose so this is just one of those examples where it could still work out right it could actually still work out but it's not necessarily something that i would do um and ego ego's done his analysis and he feels that the dollar the the US dollar is the stronger out of two and so he's decided to to take the trade okay yeah one last question um so with uh i think i've seen somewhere like china uh like i think you stated also that china wasn't doing as good as they expected yeah um and you know china being a commodity driven uh market i know you you you touched on that where the uh the commodities are not as strong um all they're really relying on is the interest rate push um wouldn't that set up one of the commodities and i know you said new zealand was just the weakest out of out of the pair so really match up with something but uh wouldn't that trickle to the to the australian dollar because don't they trade more with china and yeah with china so i was so i was kind of leaning towards you know paying australian dollar or something if china keeps on with the narrative will be missing expectations that's not working that's not working what's your thoughts on that yeah so so again i'm i'm with you in so far but i need to see the data that's my thing right there needs to be data that supports china growth because once they once it does support because right so so basically they're cutting yeah so let's go back to the basics so china are cutting right now yeah what what right in what environment yeah does a central bank typically cut when i say environment i'm talking about you know in what phase of the economic cycle does a um a central bank cut is it in in the growth period or is it in the contraction period uh usually in a contraction period there you go there you go so so a lot of times we don't necessarily have to the central bank is actually telling us they're worried about the economy so if they're worried about the economy then for me to really kind of go all in on a china trade idea i would need to now see the effects of those rate cuts start to have an effect on the data and china's growth so for now i'm not convinced yes you can can you can kind of try to get in early on it if you if you want right now but i'm a bit more conservative right i'm a bit more conservative because the effect of a cut right and rate cuts should eventually trickle through to the economy which should boost economic growth right eventually the the the the issue is is the timing of that right that could it could be a month it could be two months it could be three months nobody knows so for me i think it's probably best for the data to show to start to show growth before then maybe you want to start buying the commodity currencies again well commodities commodities in general for example oil can be driven by other things not just not just china of course demand from china helps support you know um uh uh you know oil prices but you also have for example opec right and things like that so um opec will support prices regardless of china and so um you know china and opec in tandem is is great if you've got that on your side in your trade but if you have one over the other that's fine too but when it comes to the the commodity currencies um not to say that you know the commodity currencies are a sell because you have the central bank support in the commodity currencies right for example the central bank bank in canada i'm also saying the canadian dollar against the australian dollar that's pretty much the point okay so so okay so so australian dollar against canadian dollar it's something again that i would probably more not trade simply because um again you've got two competing currencies although although we do know that you can have a a ranging market when you have two currencies that are both strong and that are both weak so there are opportunities to still trade those those currencies i don't know if you saw i i posted um a video on the ozzy cad which basically there was a stop hunt involved and what drew what the reason why this dropped was mainly because of what happened with the with the australian dollar sentiment um uh the speech that happened and i kind of covered it earlier where they were talking about the fact that um the nature of the close nature of the product is his decision in strong case for pause prompted traders to pay back bets on the rba right will hike towards the year end and so it was an opportunity really for those traders you know the stop hunt above in conjunction with the news right for it to sell off but do i think now that for example you know prices are going to you know trend to the downside in terms of you know continuing going like all the way down here what's the likelihood probably probably not if you have two central banks that are both hiking prices should stay within this auction this was a bargain for the australian dollar that was expensive for the australian dollar that was a bargain for the canadian dollar that was expensive for the canadian dollar so um when it comes to um the ozzy cad it's like i said commodity wise i think the australian dollar well they say that the that the canadian dollar benefits from you know oil prices more than australia but then china you know um them growing and importing a lot of iron ore and copper for example benefits the australian dollar more it's a it's a tough one to choose between the two do you know i mean so i would say at the moment yeah i would say at the moment it's not really a pair that i would really look to trade yeah there's no difference it's not a thing that really starts to show up yeah exactly looking for a trader exactly it's just it's just looking for the divergences between them and if you can't see any or they're very few then just don't look to trade it that's all okay it has to be obvious yeah but you but you can trade for example the australian dollar versus something like the new zealand dollar right um where you think to yourself okay look you know we've got a nice stop point here really nice starting to set up yeah looking at where we are on the daily first of all oh that looks a bit high right okay cool if it looks a bit high then at least start to look at where we are from a moving fair value perspective right so the moving fair value we've definitely touched the two week so that's basically valid so we've touched one measure of of fair value at least and then we're coming into potentially the monthly fair value which hasn't been touched since prices have crossed to the upside that's always a a decent area to look for a trade in conjunction with obviously other you know some sort of setup so for me this looks really nice because regardless of um you know what was said in their speech i know that the new zealand dollar definitely aren't looking to high crates and they're in a recession whereas the australian dollar are not you know they're they're pretty much the opposite so for me this starts to still now look like a a decent trade to look to take yeah okay okay that looks quite nice if it happens because it might not happen right you could see this level could continue to fall and keep going down nobody knows right no one knows it could the market's going to see that as it might not see that as a as a bargain area right one thing i will say there were just just a note as well that this was where you had also had a surprise rate hike so this is where they hiked the the the australian central bank so this could also be supportive of this trade as well you could see that something like this happening bounce off of that area there so that to me i think this whole area is quite nice because anyone who missed this move yeah in terms of buying interest rates now can get a chance to get in at fair value the monthly fair value in conjunction with some liquidity hunting so that's quite nice um one second let me just go back through some of the comments one sec thank you alexandros we do have a great group daniel says uh just closed all positions on oil of decent profits not what i was expecting on but i think they will take a lot of time to reach over 80 levels and i don't want to pay more broker fees might buy again at lows according uh to what data says we need uh we head into a session worldwide in in a near time i'm still a long time holding on copper even if i'm not on profits there too yeah so looking at oil what time is it now i'm glad you've been talking for ages i'm gonna have to end this uh it's calling the sec um right looking at oil looking at the daily yeah we are in this um this auction aren't we just clear this up a little bit yeah we are in this auction we are in that auction between the 71s and the 79 eight just below the 80 area yeah hello daniel yes i can hear you so i i had the positions open from the top of the auction up to the lowest and uh i i had some losses on the upper positions but mostly 75 percent of my positions were profitable so excellent i took i took the wings you know i increased my capital because i just it's not worth to wait six eight months on that point i don't know because i just heard some news that iran is increasing the production russia is doing a lot of you know undeclared selling and so it doesn't look too good in the long term it will take way too much time so i'll buy again i think i'll buy again around 70 71 72 is a good place to buy again maybe yeah but i'm not buying at the highest right now yeah i took profit and on on copper again i am on profits right now but i'm going to hold on until it goes to four one four four something upper levels of the auction okay copper i i believe in copper way more than you know okay yeah you can see the auction right here yeah so at some point even if it's next year i don't care i know it will reach will be an over four and that will be a really really good profit for me from that one i'm holding fingers crossed man fingers crossed yeah yeah fingers crossed for that um so we're probably at what we would consider probably fair value at the moment right fair value of this this is definitely seen as bargain price price is made new highs prices come down again a nice bargain price it's a fair value so personally whenever i see prices come to fair value i would take especially on something like the daily and an auction this wide i would probably say take a little bit of profit or consider it anyway just consider if you if you do or if you don't pay again depending on your your your medium to long term plan but i'm always of the opinion that you know what take a little bit of profit even if prices do come back down to here you can kind of reload right yeah because nothing moves in a straight line yeah so that would be yeah that would you can use those profits to kind of reload on these areas here yeah on a on copper price you know a slow but surely way up yeah it's a different market compared to oil it's less less things moving you know less uh unknown in the equation with copper than with oil that's gonna be a really nice if that stop hunts right there i don't see much volatility in copper as it is in oil it's not so volatile so i'm not expecting the prices to drop suddenly like it goes on like right now ellison 76 it might go to 72 tomorrow only in a couple of hours yeah yeah with copper i don't see that happen right right yeah yeah okay okay yeah great analysis and thank you thank you for that thank you trade trade copper like with oil and that because i'm with oil we follow opaque and the eia and we follow this for fundamentals and we've got a basic idea how oil is moving but with copper um who like which which groups and inform all the fundamentals around copper like i cannot find nobody like with the great markets we have the usda with the oil we have opaque and eia but with copper who who do you guys follow well one uh once i i think it's kiko that looks at the metals and analysis yeah kiko yeah it's a good one and um there is another one for x live or i i will post it in in the group it doesn't come to mind right now but but with that we've we've something like copper i think it's more it's not necessarily an intraday type of trade as um as uh daniel was saying alexandros it's it's more of that of a very macro place so for example you know looking at china do you know what i mean looking at supply and demand that is really where you know you would kind of look to buy copper for the medium to not you think about you know the fact that copper needs to be used in um uh what is it i think is it is it the batteries or something like that as well in car batteries yeah it's uh car batteries those i think even solar panels anything electrical actually in any electronics yeah your laptop has copper you need to yeah everything absolutely so that's why copper actually is called dr copper yes when you have risk on then copper will go yeah yeah very simple and risk risk on meaning that you have growth in an economy right you have growth in global growth because you have more demand you know people are willing to you know put more money into investments etc etc so if you look at copper from more of a way more of a macro perspective that's the reason why you kind of get into copper yeah i hope that i hope that helps so adizondros thanks then you'll be appreciated thank you you're welcome no worries uh so i'm going to wrap up now and it says uh there's growth in china just not heavy at the moment but it's coming uh new z dj says new zealand dollar us dollar right so i'll cover new zealand dollar us dollar and i'll cover euro or z and then i will and then i will go right those two seeing as diadra one way to cover those two right so uh currency new zealand dollar us dollar so um yeah i was saying that there was an opportunity to kind of sell here which actually turned out to be a bit profitable there was a couple of entries that you could have taken one was on the daily so actually let's let's uh zoom out a little bit so you've got low high low yeah and so actually from here so you've got an auction from here to here yeah which is 80