This is scary because it reminds me of when I was a musician. When you're going to run on stage to start playing, but thankfully I'm a much better speaker than I'm a musician. That's your luck. So, long time ago, 1986, 1987, I went to Berkley College in Boston, and I studied with Bill Fisale and a bunch of other people, and it was a really great time to be a musician. This was all before the internet. So, if you wanted to get a gig, you'd have to send out a CD, and make phone calls, a completely different world. I had several record concerts, I made 20 records, I played in Las Vegas, I played in a chipship. I had a good time as a musician. But in the 90s I got bored with being a working class musician, whatever that would mean. And I went on the internet, I started a few internet companies on music. And then 2001 was the crash. And my company died, we went to heaven, we lost $20 million, we were in bankrupt. So, you know, every American entrepreneur has to go bankrupt. And right after that I started to realize that I was ahead of the time in my thinking, which is not good for business, you know. You're five or ten years too early, you have to wait. Sort of like Daniel Eck, you know. Music like Walter, okay, that's definitely a good thing, but is it too early? And so, I was very early, so I decided to write the book The Future of Music that you know, probably. And it became a futurist. Now, what a futurist does, and I've been doing this for ten years, is not to predict anything. At least not me. You have to ask Ray Kurzweil or Elton Toffler for the predictions. But what I've worked on is two to five years from now, and I think all of us sort of know what's coming. We don't have time to look at. There's a Chinese saying that says, if you want to know about the future, ask your children. Because the children still have a mindset that's open and not occupied with making money. But if we're all here trying to make money today, then it's hard to think about what the next thing is going to be in five years. So what I want to do for you today is to bring you the view from 35 years from now, so you can prepare for a future that's going to be very, very interesting. Now, we've never had that many changes as we've had in the last two years. Think about this for a second, right? It took a long time, like, 75 years for a telephone to become mainstream. It took about 20 years for computers. It took about seven years for the internet. It took three years for the mobile and two years for Facebook. So the speed is mind-blowing. So it doesn't actually take a future as to think about all these things that are going to happen in the next five years. For example, Europe is either going to crash or actually become a country. That's quite obvious. In 10 years, we're not going to be driving cars with gas engines. Also very obvious. Not a welcome message, but here in Copenhagen, of course, that's already the case. You're lucky there, because not only is Denmark the happiest country in the world, according to some research, but also the greenest, which is called Copenhagen. In any case, what I do with my company, the previous agency, is our motto is it wasn't raining when Noah built the art. This whole idea of saying that the developed scenarios are based on four sides and doing this for a few companies around the world. The whole four sides basically means saying and looking at things that are beyond the obvious. We do this for several hundred companies, including music companies and Google and YouTube and Samsung and many others to develop scenarios. We also work a lot with artists, writers and producers. My previous lives, this is a place in Berkeley, California, called Auschwitz. Some of you may know it. It's pretty well known, but that's where I started my career running clubs. The fact that it's still there, you know, is probably a good thing. And this was me as a musician in my previous life. So I have one experience in the turf that you represent here from different angles, and I hope to share a few things with you there. So my presentation and all of my books are available on this website called girdcloud.com. It's a bit of a joke. It's really just Dropbox. You guys know Dropbox? Everybody knows Dropbox. This is a Dropbox folder. It's a public folder. You can go there and download about three gigabytes worth of things, including all my free books, Music 3.0, Friction is Fiction, The Future of Content. You can download everything you want and the presentation from today. We'll be uploading it tonight. So just look on the presentations to download this. You can also follow me on Twitter. I'm G-Leonard, G-L-E-O-N-H-A-R-D on Twitter. Otherwise just search for girdfuturists. So LK, a pretty brilliant guy from Intel, said the best way to predict the future is to invent it. And I think this is so much so true for the music business, because clearly all of us know the reported music industry is in the toilet. But the live music industry is actually not doing so bad, and the publishing industry isn't doing so bad, and music in general is just as popular as ever before. Music, we don't have less talented musicians, and we have more and more musicians in publishing things. So the future here is clearly going to be five billion people connected to a digital network. I mean just imagine this, right now we have two and a half billion, and all of those in the other three billion countries in India and China, Brazil, Russia, Africa are coming online at a fast pace. Do you know what the biggest factor in tourism is in Europe today? There's Chinese people and Brazilians coming to Europe for our culture. This is amazing, because we're seeing this growth, and of course they're interested in music and films in all these cities. So basically five billion connected people will make a living in a quite different world, and this world is largely determined by what you guys know as cloud computing. So basically, everything that we do, our music, our films, our health records, our works, is going to end up in the cloud. I mean it's already with music, we have Spotify and ZipFly and RDO and what, you know, that's already in the cloud, our movies are in the cloud with wire play, and with Netflix and Hulu, you know this is already happening, but it's going to be everything in the cloud, everything. Quite scary thought in fact, for other reasons. But obviously a really, really powerful business scenario, if all of your live shows, your concerts, if your club experiences can't be in the cloud, which has been tried before, imagine the kind of new things that you can do there. And the costs are so low now. When I grew up on the internet era, there was a thing called the digital club network in New York, they tried to put all the clubs online, of course it was way too expensive, but today imagine all of the world's live music in the cloud, and that's what we're doing. Imagine all the things that we can do with this, and of course also the competition for people's attention. I mean the competition is quite different when you go to a bookstore, and you go to buy my book, then you have I'm competing for 20,000 books in the bookstore.  So that's an issue there. And remember of course that technology, as we're all living in technology, is exponential. Just watch some of Ray Kurzweil's TED talks on this. Technology is not growing linear like we do, like the regular business does. That basically means that when you count to 30, in the linear world, it's just 30. But when you go 30 in the exponential world, it's over a billion. One, two, four, eight, sixteen. So it's quite mind-boggling in this world. We're not looking at those numbers, we're not at the number three or four. Now if they look very much the same, when you count one, two, three, it's almost the same as counting one, two, four. But later it goes like this. We're living in a world that's vastly exponential. So I would say today we're here at number eight, basically. So we're a little bit further along number four over here, and we can feel that difference. But in the next few years, when all of the smart devices come in the market, and smart tablets and phones are 10 euros, you go to India and buy a tablet for $30, a tablet and a computer. Now that happens, of course. But think about what that will do to our world, and think about the social change that's going to happen. I mean, we already have a vast social change because of devices. When guys eat at a bar now, they don't talk about colors or women or whatever. They talk about apps. Say, what kind of apps do you have? That is already a change that we can see there. Pretty mind-blowing. So in this exponential world, question I have for you, are you ready for that to happen? Because exponential means that next time is twice of 18 months, roughly, all technology doubles in power. What will that happen for you when you look at your club in five years from now? Are you ready to take that next step? My clicker isn't so happy today. So as you know, the recorded music industry, we're not going to talk much about that because it's fairly boring topic and not really your industry, I don't think. The life music industry is that the recorded music industry is a giant money pit. It has lost about 70% of revenues in the last decade. And this is not because users aren't willing to pay. They are paying for everything else. They're paying for Farnville, folks out there when there's a game on Facebook, 600 million dollars a year. They're paying for Netflix. It's not because of that.  There's no good musicians. Definitely not. It's because of holding on to a business model that worked just fine to their advantage before the internet. It's simpler than that. But I'm not going to get into those details. I think that a lot of record labels and the music industry is a bit like oil companies. They know it doesn't work, but they still make money. So the dinosaur attitude I think is going to change. We're going to see basically this myth that people are saying nobody wants to pay for content online. Not true. In general, this whole idea of saying that people who are on the internet are not willing to pay is just utterly ridiculous. I mean, when you think about this for a second, right? Apple makes more money with apps, selling apps than it does with selling movies and music. I mean, we're paying for this. We're paying for LinkedIn premiums, I'm sure. We're paying for Flickr premium. We're paying for all kinds of things on the web. I mean, look at this low population growth that's going to happen in the year 2020. We're going to have over 6 billion people on the internet. And those people are willing to pay. Of course, in many countries, they may not be willing to pay as much. And how, of course. If you're looking at Netflix, the movie service, $10 a month, I think you don't have that in Denmark, I don't think do you? You do? Okay, so you have subscribers, I can see it. I wish we had in Switzerland, but we don't. You know, 38 million subscribers, paying $10, 10 euros, I think, a month, if you can get all these movies for free. But it's better. It works better, it's easier, it's convenient, $10, okay. So that proves the point, people are willing to pay. They're willing to pay for value. And I would submit to you, for your concerts, for your clubs, for your organizations, if you fight the right avenue to get them to open up their wallets, you can't force them to pay. The biggest mistake that we can make today is to enforce paint, like so-called paint walls of newspapers. The New York Times, the most reputable newspaper in the world, and allegedly the best writers, in the country of 330 million people in America, do you know how many people are paying $300 a year to read The New York Times online? Take a guess. 1.1 million. And that's a lot of money, it's 3 million, right? But I mean, this is the biggest newspaper in the biggest country, and you have, of course, 3 million dollars, right? So the pay wall is forcing the people to pay on the internet, in a digital society, is impossible, because we have worker rights. Some are evil, some not. But this is only a legal difference, it's not a practical difference.  You can download anything you want from YouTube. Why do you need Spotify then? Well, I am a subscriber, it's more convenient. But the bottom line is, forcing to pay is like forcing to love. The same thing. You don't go up to a person and say, hey, it's our first date, but you know, how can I force you to love me? And that's what a lot of people are doing on the internet, they say, you go away or you pay, that won't work. So we have to work in a more native approach to something that's a little bit more obvious, a little bit more together than the rest of it, so we'll have to just see if I can fix this here. So we're going to turn this around, and basically what we're seeing here, sorry, the publisher, Tim O'Reilly, is a really smart guy. He runs an organization called O'Reilly Publishing, and he talks a lot about the future of content. He says, if you take more out and you put in, the ecosystem eventually fails, and that's what happened to music, to record the music. So I won't talk much more about that, because you know, there's a topic that's a little bit off the center for our discussions here. But we're moving into the future of where the ecosystem is we're playing by ecosystem. And you can see this unfolding now. The ecosystem that's happening in music is absolutely astonishing. You have SoundCloud, you have Spotify, you have Spotify becoming a platform, you have all these movie sites, you have Netflix, traditional movies, it's like a biosphere. So all of a sudden this is a really amazing development that we're seeing right in front of us. It's no longer about signing a deal with some of the big companies. You can still do that, but it's becoming a much more networked site. And that's basically where we're going. And I think in general, of course, there's going to be quite a few changes that our global paradigm changed that are quite painful.  Because you no longer print things, so now you're on the app, right? That's painful. But it's like a horse shoemaker, you know, for horses, that when the trains come along, they didn't like the trains coming along, because the horses were less important, but nevertheless the train won. We still have horses, right? But we have to change the business model. So what we see here, folks, is this paradigm shift from distribution to attention. It is no longer about distribution. It's no longer about getting a copy. It's about making money with attention. You see the newspaper, and of course we call it music, and so on. So this is the last thing I want to talk about. We'll probably talk about it later on in the other part. Basically, what needs to happen, and of course you have precedent in this country with TDC, the only way forward is to legitimize digitalism. It's like the war on drugs. I'm not going to get into detail on this, but the war on drugs hasn't created any benefits to those who are actually drug editors. It hasn't created a benefit for the legal system. So very much the same thing. The war on digital music hasn't created a benefit for the composer or the artist. Not really for nobody. So there needs to be a new way to work this out. So bottom line for your business, don't worry about protection. Worry about engagement.  I mean, do you have a brand? The Monterey Jazz Festival wasn't just about music or isn't just about music. It's about this huge happening. It's about being part of something. It's about being engaged. It's not about being asked to pay when you're not ready to pay. And by God, it's not cheap when you go. So what is happening here is that we need to pursue this idea of saying let's put some locks on to force people to the idea of being irresistible. Here are some examples. Amazon.com is irresistible for a lot of people who want to buy things on the web because they give you presents. Free shipping. In America, all of the Amazon premium users have free movies. 5,000 free movies to choose from. It's a present. Dropbox. If I invite you to Dropbox and you sign up, you'll be able to store it. It's present. Engagement. So now with the social networks, this is a really big thing for us. This is a medium that for the first time ever is controlled by its users. And you could say what you want about Facebook in terms of privacy and all the discussions.  And you couldn't say that about Microsoft. You couldn't say that about all the sacks. You couldn't say that about any of the other stuff that we had before in the medium. So Facebook and Google are very much dependent on how good we are. And they know this. So if you're looking what's happening with Facebook, the usage on smartphones, this is the column here, points in one direction. Facebook is the new highway for what we are putting out before deciding for our compensate. And there's many things that we have to be careful about at Facebook, but I tell you one thing. I recently started advertising on Facebook and it costs $1.20 of Google and it's extremely effective. So if you're running a club and you're promoting something that is unique to your club from some other Facebook for 10 dollars, you can get some of this equal stretch. So that's just a sort of a short excursion into the social media part. Here's the most important thing. Music is not a product. Music isn't like bananas or like carbs. Music is and always has been a service. And it's always about the experience, the immersion, being part of something. It's about culture. You don't put culture in a tank in a can and sell it for $1. We did that with cities and we were very lucky that it worked. But now we're back to this realizing that we are a service and an experience. And I would argue that in general that's the case. The CEO of Sony the hardware company, not the music company said three years ago in Las Vegas that Sony wasn't in the business of selling boxes. That Sony was a service provider, a brand, a lifestyle. Of course, they wish. In the end, they sell boxes. But music is about these things that we can't really touch that makes us feel a certain way. And this is what people want in the age of electronics and digital media. They want something that they can touch. That they can actually experience. So we're not actually in the information society anymore. I mean, there's so much information that we're drowning. Every day there's new emails, new SMS, new updates and what have you. I read the other day that the average person now works 20% more because of mobile devices. So when you're in a subway somewhere your employer can send you an email you're supposed to respond. You just always work in doing something. So basically what's happening now is that we're moving away from the idea of information being so important but to the idea of an experience being and the experience you can't copy. It's impossible to copy the atmosphere and the surrounding part of a show or a concert or being part of a fan club or whatever you want to call it. It's impossible. Kevin Kelly, the founder of Wired Magazine he always says basically if you want to go look in the future you have to, if the copies are free you have to do something that can't be copied and copies are free copies are free copies of music are essentially freely or not they are free or cheap in any case they are no longer a really strong opportunity for money. So turning something into an experience is crucial. This is a movie called The Life of P that many of you may have seen when they launched they felt a theater with water and the first people that were watching this movie which was largely about being on the ocean with the tiger they were able to sit in this water with a boat and watch the movie and of course it was vastly expensive I'm sure but this created a whole thing about this movie is like an experience you get stuck inside. That's what we need things to be inexperienced we don't need things to be digitized in such a way that we feel like we're consuming bits it doesn't do anything for us. So basically what we're going to see here is that we have this increasing convergence of online offline. This is a good scene that shows that we kind of want both we want to sit on the beach and just be disconnected and enjoy the waves but then again we can immediately tap into something to read the stock report from this morning by using digital media and I think we have those things in parallel one isn't going to replace the other this is very good news for you it's not about being virtual it's about combining those two things and I think if you take those two worlds the real world and what people call meat space and then the cyberspace you put them together you have a very powerful view of the future of what all the things will become possible I'll show you some of them that we can get into but the desire for experience and so on and empty spaces will prevail and empty space means that sometimes you don't have anything to do and you need that because otherwise you can't take in any more stuff because you're already full and this is really what it means to go out and see a show to have an intentionally grand space this is becoming a real issue worldwide is a digital addiction 60% of American kids when they wake up at night do a Facebook update about their dream can you imagine that I mean I only do it every other night but in any case this is clearly a topic my view is that once we're done with all this cool toys and this cool technology and the gadgets and all these things we still want something that we can count on and that we can connect to we still want to be part of so we're looking in this direction if my clicker kind of gets around to it here we have this complete convergence of internet and TV and why I'm telling you this because if you run events and concerts and show cases the television is coming to you basically all the things we talked about in the last 15 years were too difficult to realize to be a geek or spend lots of money but now what you're doing in real life can be broadcasted anybody can be broadcasted you can publish and show things and you can harvest those unique opportunities that we're seeing here so in this country I think you already have Viaply and Hulu and other things right but in general this is called over the top services OTT services and they will have several hundred of them coming up like YouTube, Amazon, Netflix, Hulu and all the other ones and you'll see here very soon that live events and concerts are the next step so in a few years we'll be able to go to one of those 100 players and say we can do a syndication agreement on concerts directly from these players even if it's only for 50 people because the cost will be next to zero cost will be just a collection this to me is a really amazing scenario that you're going to see that's terrible that's what happened with the Kindle all concerts, shows and events and the club there's a couple of services already doing this and YouTube for example has recently commissioned 300 million dollars worth of TV show Netflix has commissioned a movie with what's his face forgot it but it's fine 200 million dollars for that as well so we're going to see stuff like this company that I'm a little bit involved with called Showgirl TV that allows you to virtually attempt jazz shows in about 50 clubs around the world remotely, some free some paid you can be virtually there and imagine what happens when you can actually talk to other people with your tablet while they're also watching this show and this is a really interesting scenario that didn't exist until recently so in five years every single club every venue, every concert connected to a global network can you charge for that? probably even be part of a charging system like Flatter or others where you can raise money from so live streaming concerts is listed by J. Walter Thompson as one of the key revenue streams for the future of media and this has been a fake promise by and large since the first days of the internet but we finally have the Jews we have the connectivity and all of the telecoms and mobile service operators they want nothing more than to create meaning with their connectivity why would we buy a DSL or a fast LTE line or whatever if there's nothing in it so we're going to see that becoming a standard on a global scale and this will be very very interesting for all of us so the opportunity is also to put the fans in the front seat because it's not possible to connect them if you want a club or a concert or a festival of course everybody knows this already you want to engage with your people they come there you want to give them the choice of who should play you're going to do polls with them you're going to use a wristband when they come in to connect with them while they're there and this technology is getting so cheap now and so possible as an example there's a water park in Tel Aviv a water park and they came up with a very simple idea the kids come in to go in this water park and you can get a Facebook wristband with your Facebook ID you log in to get this electronic band and then when you go down a slide you hit the wristband and it sends a message to your Facebook wall saying I like this slide and there's some cameras that take photos of people and you're lucky enough to be in there connecting the real experience with Facebook has sold out this place for six months it was the same place as last year connecting people with what they do with all my money and trade in this overlap and interface it's going to be a crucial thing so I think live music new money will be fueled by social local, mobile, cloud and video and of course it will be fueled by having good music that's already given hopefully but in America they call this social, local, mobile and local for example means that when you enter the pub if you have a smartphone you can check in that you're there and when you check in for example with Foursquare or Facebook or other apps you can receive offers from the band the band can say you know what when you're done with this gig live shows for five years this is already 300 million after you go there so the possibilities here I mean we have to take a few leaps here to figure out how we can integrate this technology into the everyday affairs of running a club but here's the thing we can learn this on Amazon it has to be digitally native it has to be starting from a place that's available because of the internet not just in addition for example now Amazon is offering as of recently a way to rent textbooks so imagine if you're in Brazil or in Thailand you don't have money for books because they have to be printed and shipped you can get a digital rental service in some cases in Brazil they're investing in this for $10 a year for all of the student textbooks right on the mobile device how that will change the world so think of something for your application that can only work because of the internet because of the fact that people have mobile devices I said this many times before but you know the mobile phones and mobile devices are essentially becoming our external brain and Ray Kurzweil calls this the brain expansion I mean think about this for a second when you have a question about something what do you do? you look it up on Wikipedia or you look it up and when you're looking for a restaurant you check out TripAdvisor this is a little bit geeky now but this will become a reality for pretty much everyone so 2005 when the Pope the now defunct Pope was inaugurated this was the scene in Rome and this is 2013 now if you're looking at this picture if you're not getting what is happening there's no trouble mobile is the new normal and that's basically it the internet is mobile we're going to go away completely from people using desktops to do whatever they're doing to a very large degree in India for example mobile access to the internet already is bigger than desktop and this is really happening now across the world so if you're not doing something with your club or your event to be mobilized whether it's a mobile website or mobile apps and you're probably already doing a lot of these things then you just miss the boat I mean this is crucial and where it's going that is the new normal being connected is the new default and that causes other problems which I can't get into now but if you're looking at this study entertainment and media CEOs around the world what they're saying about the biggest trend 100% of them are saying mobile devices, smartphones tablets, it's the biggest trend in entertainment so can you create an app that allows people to connect with you or can you find a way to get them to vote on who should be getting the gig next and things like that, I mean those things are pretty obvious and easy and already happening all over the world but to engage with people on mobile devices clearly is going to become the new default they're becoming our external brains as I said that's something that we sometimes have to cry about because we're not active to our lives but at the same time we'll have to find a way forward to deal with this interference but what we're seeing here is that mobile content is essentially the next printing press the change from the internet as it was before mobile is as big as the change from the spoken word to the printed word so there is a huge opportunity for us to engage with people on mobile devices and to find ways to actually interact with them and to build loyalty because as you know it's all about loyalty and trust do they trust you, do they have the right artists do they appreciate what you're doing and all the work that you're doing to create the programs and to go through all that work of fishing for the right things your global interface to the world is not a computer it's the mobile so even if you're as old as I am you understand this basic principle what's happening here is total customer empowerment I mean, go to a restaurant put your smartphone on the table bring up the TripAdvisor app go to the page of the restaurant where they are reviewed put it on the table when the waitress comes and she sees you with the TripAdvisor app about to rate their restaurant you know when Germany they tell you to go away it depends on where you are you don't care but in general it's empowerment we don't like something we can say immediately this band sucked or we can do like the Pope we can make all photos of him so basically what happens here is vast empowerment that we all have to deal with and so Virgin for example has responded to this and created this huge website called Virgin Life where you can connect with artists and musicians and live shows on YouTube and on Twitter on this huge website called Virgin Life that they have set up to connect with Virgin in a musical way this works on all different devices and stuff so it's a really interesting idea and this cartoon brings up an interesting question won't social media reveal how antisocial we really are this is a problem believe it or not in other words when I worked for a record label as a futurist a couple years ago and we talked about how we would want to open up the process and talk to people about the music business you know what the CEO told me he said we don't want to talk to people about this we want them to buy our damn music that was his response so I mean how could you possibly believe that if you're not interested in talking to the consumer and other people around you about what you are doing that you're going to be successful that worked 20 years ago for Deutsche Telecom it's certainly not going to work today so that is a big change that we're seeing and what we have to do to go forward so for example here we're seeing this app from Amazon the shopping app that you can use to go into the store and compare the price of this product or any product with what is being offered online so imagine that a store owner is not so happy about this when you can go in and you can scan the price and you can say oh it's only half on Amazon click done so this interruption is no longer for geeks this is becoming completely normal and we have to use these kind of things to get people inside of what we're doing rather than outside of what we're doing because quite simply on television which was the mainstream media now our job was to consume and on the mobile our job is to engage that's a very big difference and this is the opportunity for you because you in this business, in life music business we're never so much about consumption but about engagement so it's a very good fit to create new business models for this we see this complete convergence of mobile, television social media I mean basically social media are the next big broadcasters Facebook is bigger than the biggest broadcaster in the world and they're broadcasting us we are the program of Facebook we are the program of YouTube these are the new broadcasters YouTube will be the biggest global broadcaster in the history of television bigger than all of the other guys already is, billion users so this is a great opportunity for anybody that's not a mainstream line artist because it's about niches it's not about being a hit you know you've read this book years ago called Long Tail some of you may have read this we were laughing about this a year ago saying that's not true because on the internet people still like stars and it's true but when you are a user of Spotify or Netflix and you have a flat range offering you can watch or listen to anything you want there's no punishment so what do people do they download cube music and Bali music and whatever not just Lady Gaga because they can that creates a really interesting scenario opportunity for niche markets so one key question I want to ask you is your organization mobile optimized because if it's not you should do it tomorrow and it's actually very easy to do how exactly you do that but this is clearly this is a key point 60% of search in the area of music is on mobile devices so if your website is using flash as big as this you're not going to sell much through that mechanism of mobile is your experience mobile visual and social Metallica has a website where you can download all of the latest shows directly from them I mean they're really bad MP3 quality it's a live feed basically that's extremely popular and it's connected with the fans directly rather than saying listen to us on YouTube you can also pay I think it's something like $10 for 10 shows or something like that very little and here's something very interesting for you I think most of you are not running huge clubs like the Ministry of Sound or something this chart shows what's happening in mainstream media is that more and more people are watching more and more different things I mean clearly here we see in 1950 I love Lucy and Dallas and so on 70% of Americans are watching these shows and what do we have today 2005 that's the latest data I can find CSI and Seinfeld would get something like 20% I think the data from last year is that the maximum amount of people that you get in America watching the same show is 7% everybody else is doing other things including Ted.com and Hulu and Netflix and so on their fragmentation this fragmentation is great news unless you're a hit if you're a hit this is bad news because you're a fragment you're being fragmented but basically what happens here is that even if you're the most remote stylistically as an artist you can see that electronic music for example has done great because of this so fragmentation we have to embrace there's not much we can do about this and the niches are becoming the new masses so rather than having one mass market we have a mass of niches and that's something I think we can exploit also for the future to go into a new direction so you're clearly seeing this overwhelming reality that the audience has more content that they're drowning in content so what we need to do is we need to create better filters we need to create a way for them to say well they appreciate the programming that we do this is what professionals do you know journalists or broadcasters or radio people and so on that basically the sense making is what people want they don't go to Spotify to listen to 7 million songs they're going there to listen to a particular song or something that we recommend so it's not about the noise or the volume it's about the selection the curation and I would submit to you that you as an event organizer or a concert organizer or a record label you are the filter you're like the guy who runs the museum who picks out the pictures that go into the museum nobody goes in the museum to look at a thousand pictures nobody goes to a restaurant to eat the entire world's food in one day so it's about curation it's about sense making ask yourself a simple question I ask myself that every week is what you're doing actually making sense or is it making noise because if it's making noise then you're dead nobody cares about noise anymore we have so much noise you can say we're going to make some more noise some more bad things this is about a truly unique experience not about noise making so if everything is within reach every movie every song every concert every recipe every therapy group on the internet is within reach if that's always within reach then attention will be distribution and intention beats marketing and this is really a great shortcut also to the fact that now we can actually go direct we can go direct to those people that like what we do but the other guys right next to it and that's the good thing about what's happening if you're looking at a brand like Moleskine the first question is that you have to ask yourself who you are what is your identity and Moleskine has said we're between the culture and identity and function we're over in this quadrant you know Moleskine the books the notebooks that she use so what is your future identity where exactly are you and I would say that basically what's happening is that in music as far as clubs and concerts and events are concerned you have to become a brand and a platform not just a destination not just a building or a date or once a year thing but you become something recognizable like being a platform is a challenge because you have to do more things and just put something on platform means somebody else can be on top of you so if you're looking at all the successful brands in many ways you can say that for the final few good record labels like ECM Records or Putumaya World Music so they are platforms they are brands and that is I think that's the challenge like Apple has a huge brand that is a cult I'm a cultist as well so brands and music will be a huge thing in the future you know that every single brand around the world is now saying you know what if the internet and social media is going to be as good as it looks why do we need television I mean they have already decided that print and newspapers are out you know that so television now they are all saying you know what if this works can we just be a cool brand and culture like Red Bull does or like other brands do so the future is going to be a lot of brands coming to you and say can we collaborate to reach the right people that we want to reach and some of that may be a little bit difficult because of the brands who and who they are but if you look to China this is already the number one way the Chinese musicians are funded through brands they don't sell music people don't buy CDs they are funded by brands that creates of course other interesting overlaps but in Korea and China that's already become a standard I think this is a huge opportunity I'm going to have to wrap up very soon okay I'll take this out but location based services we talked about early and then I'm going to come to the final wrap up and some questions location based services like this are crucial like if you have a club you've got to get into location based services which means somebody comes in and you can connect with them using their mobile device and this is quite standard using Facebook and so on but Starbuck is the master of this did you know that Starbuck has about 35 million followers on Facebook everybody that is a friend of Starbuck on Facebook drinks twice as much coffee it's a proven fact not necessarily coffee but they go buy something coffee is bad but they buy other things they're a customer you get people to like and engage with you they become a customer it's sticky that's really what you want you want to Harvard that potential of what happens on location based services I'm going to really have to skip here to get to the end okay one quick thing is that we have to think about how we define value and there's a huge definition going on when you ask American kids what they think about music and how much they spend on music per month 50% of them say zero because they have redefined the value of music not being something that you immediately spend money for while at the same time these guys as I said earlier are making a killing with $10 a month so the reason to pay is what we need we need to define the reason why they should pay us and this is a mission I think that we're going to see emerging Netflix versus New York Times and I sometimes say it has to be pay will not pay wall and this is crucial to figure out in your position what are people going to pay for and why and how what is the reason to pay because the reverse doesn't work as it's saying basically the reason to be punished so that you end up paying that doesn't work any longer so the reason to pay is what we have to figure out sorry I'm going to have to go in and jump ahead a little bit here I was vastly optimistic here on my own timing but give here a brief summary so question number one what do you want to be in five years ask yourself that simple question take an afternoon at the beach and think about this we have to embrace four sides we have to embrace what is happening outside we can't deny all these things that are happening we have to think about what's coming towards us technology is exponential we may very well have the internet inside of our brains in ten years which is a really scary thought I wish I could have it now so I could look you up and take out your social network profile but agility and speed is essential this is just part of what we have to do now dive into social, local, mobile that is sort of the key message I think for as far as changing the way you do business social, local, mobile is affordable it's there putting the fans in the front seat over the top platforms are a huge opportunity for music video for opportunities to broadcast your shows and some of that is still in the early stages in some places but I can guarantee you in the next three years you're going to see every one of those broadcasters that goes over the top and all the telecos come to you and ask for a way of collaborating to put your stuff into these channels I mean YouTube already has that has done that for a long time and quite successfully so so optimize for mobile become a platform and a brand think about what it takes to become loved by your customers so that you become larger than the gig that's the mission because not just the gig that they come there for music is about the experience so we have to figure out what Kevin Kelly calls the new generatives the new ways that the experience makes money and that the experience can be larger so that we can sustain it pursue reason to pay we talked about that already it's about attention and the last point I think is the most crucial one the future of music really is about building this digital native ecosystem look at your kids and how they deal with digital media that is the future where we're going it's all happening in parallel so we need to build an ecosystem that works with that rather than repeat what it used to be so I want to thank you very much for your attention I have an app you can download read more about this use this QR code if you want my website, my new website is at futurewithgird.com and be happy to take some questions if we have a couple minutes we have some microphones or comments or ambush whatever you I'm quite good at a monologue but I would like to have a conversation ok we got somebody we have a brave soul that's good you must be a musician I would like to hear your thoughts about in this era you say the niches king something we see in our daily lives as well but I would like to hear your thoughts about how these if niches king how do a lot of us build these artists a lot of people here have a reality where they have maybe a 60,000 festival or they have a 1500 club etc etc the road from gathering 500 people on your facebook page to our venue reality where we have to buy the tickets is sometimes at best I would like to hear your thoughts on this well we're sort of in this interim period and this is one of the issues that we're having we're between the old world and the new world so basically what's happening is a lot of the stuff that really works is largely a little bit hard to do the gigs are doing it but not enough people are doing it and if you're looking at Spotify or at Youtube they have the same problem it's sort of large but it doesn't make a lot of money yet because a lot of the the crucial pieces are missing for example if you take advertisers many advertisers are not really putting money into mobile or into branding because they're still on television so there's a gap we have the reality here which is digital and the kids and 30% of that is already happening there the reality which is still very much in the going of the old channels but this reality in the next 3 years will catch up we have this huge gap and this is bad news for radio this is bad news for print but it's good news for lots of other things so I think we need to figure out really attractive offerings to break through that and this change has taken time so however if you can just take the example of Youtube you wouldn't argue that Youtube that have a billion users if you would say that Youtube cannot make money with a billion users considering what they do is clearly a question of when not if so and we have to have some imagination to think about the point to where it happens and I think there are some real hardships right now because of this transition phase for example when I worked in music business we got paid by record labels to a large degree and we were getting record contracts and then we were doing gigs and stuff in the US but today it's basically everything has to do with getting exposure on social networks building an audience in a way I think it's fairer that way because it's more Darwinistic it's maybe a little bit harder but it's more real in the end I think that's probably good we have time for one or two questions more there's one here we often discuss when it's time to go home and break up with our local newspaper and stop putting ads in newspapers and putting up posters at the lighting post do I have any advice when it's time to do that step that's a good question how you market and how people read things is largely a cultural question for example in Switzerland where I live people have iPads and mobile phones a lot but they still have the newspaper as well because they're not so sensitive on saving money so I think you have to evaluate what is the right fit for which but clearly now the future isn't going to be printing stuff and shipping it around to promote a gig I mean if you're seeing what's happening and shopping how people shop now e-commerce is going like this and stores are going like this and so you can clearly see that using paper and using traditional media may stick around in certain places for a while but clearly electronic media has overtaken this it's just a question like if you have this thing called what's app do you guys know this app or Viber where you can make free phone calls over your smartphone the reason I use that is because it's free but I can only call you if you also have it and so we're on the same place where we're essentially saying that we need to figure out a way to gain critical mass and then it will work so that's a bit of the challenge there this interim period as I was saying earlier but I think it will only be a matter of say two or three years before that becomes reality and keep in mind of course if you're using a service like social cedar which I was going to show you briefly but it's a service from a friend of mine social cedar.com where you can actually use a social network to meet attention to concerts and live events using people as multipliers this is the kind of thing that we're going to see in the future and it's free it's effective, it's trackable it's affordable, it's direct you know the old saying in the advertising was 50% of television advertising is useless is what one maker said but I don't know which 50 and that's not going to be our future and I have 100% accountability for what you spend on how you get people to show up and to me I think that's a great potential do we have time for another question one last question we talked about this earlier not today but on the last seminar but the thing I still don't understand is obviously it's a very good idea to say the bands or the sponsors but how would the club make money well the concert I've talked about is the concert of a platform so when your club becomes indispensable for a lot of reasons as a location but also as a virtual location and becomes a brand people are going to come even if you don't have a band because this becomes part of what they do because it's just part of it so you go to the Glastonbury Festival not because of the bands I mean that is a little bit of course you want to see the bands you go there for the overall experience I think the solution is to become something that's larger than just a gig or larger than just a ticket and when you can do that I think success is also possible with branding where people say they want to underwrite this kind of brand that you are so I mean there's many examples in the Knitting Factory for example has been very successful in being sort of a brand in this way I think that's not possible for all clubs clearly you know if you're in a small town it may be much easier harder to do I think in general what you see happening is being able to combine the actual physical place with the virtual place it's going to have great potential including broadcasting the shows recording the shows, showing the shows new models with the artist and so on which in many ways have issues like licensing and those kind of things that you all know about so I won't touch on that but that will be resolved I mean in 5 years you're going to be able to tune into a channel and say I'm going to watch this club in South Africa with this band that I really like down there and you put a coin in the box there somewhere but it won't be expensive and you could do that anywhere in the world that you want we just have to figure out a way to sell beers online as well you know the interesting part is that I think with all these things moving online the incentive to go to a real place will actually increase you've seen for example as a result of Guitar Hero which is this awful game that you play with a plastic guitar you know if you're a guitar player you know this is really terrible the result of Guitar Hero was that for 4 years straight in America there was a record sales of guitars so people play this fake game there's a really addictive game and then they figure I want to play a real guitar so don't be worried about virtual things they lead to the real thing in almost all cases well I think this is it thank you very very much that was very inspiring


I and many other people thought the death of Bin Laden and the Arab Spring would basically make terrorism a sort of much less significant national security concern, but in fact that was wrong. And the Arab Spring inaugurated civil war and anarchy in much of the Middle East out of which sprang ISIS, so we continue to have this problem. The reason that many Americans remain concerned about terrorism and the reason that it's a big issue in the current presidential campaign, you can make the argument that a lot of Donald Trump's success has been because of his supposed plans to deal with terrorism. The fact is that every time there's some kind of terrorist incident people put it in the frame of 9-11 and continued to do so and even though that's probably not entirely rational because we're not going to see another 9-11 or anything close because we're much more well defended now. The fact is that it's still a central national security concern.


Track number 9460, we are here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, you're new and used, half ton truck headquarters. Today we are checking out this Super Clean 2011 Ford F-150 Super Crew 5.5 foot short box. This truck has the 3.5 liter V6 EcoBoost motor. From this HD video you will be able to tell that this truck is extremely clean all the way around. No dents or dings on the front bumper, factory fog lights, headlights are nice and clear. Ignite Silver Metallic is the color. This one has Kumho Krugin, 275-65 R18 tires, factory alloy rims with the chrome covers are in nice condition and these tires have about 50-60% of the tread left frame and under body is in really nice condition considering it is a 2011. We shoot all of our videos in 1080p so if you have HD capabilities on your computer tablet or smartphone device turn them on right now because it is like you are right here looking at the truck with me. I didn't see any dents or dings on that hood, very nice condition, passenger side rim is in excellent condition as well, no scuffs or scrapes and as we go down this side of the truck you can see just how clean the body is, how reflective and mirror like that paint is. We take these HD videos so if you are far away or even if you are close by and just cannot make the trip down you can still see the truck, hear the truck and have confidence in the vehicle that you are looking at before you even get here. Very very clean down this side of the vehicle it does have the chrome step bars, back rim is in excellent condition as well and of course four wheel disc brakes, back tires have just as much tread as the front tires and you can see the frame and under body on this truck, pretty nice condition, it is like that all the way underneath. We want to make sure you get the most accurate representation of the vehicle as possible so that when you get here there is absolutely no surprises, rear bumpers in really nice condition as well, no dents or dings on that, it does have the backup sensors, tailgate is in nice condition as well, it has an access soft roll up tonneau cover, no rips or tears on that and it does come with a bed mat, beds in pretty nice condition, a couple little scuffs and scrapes but it is a truck so that's what happens to trucks, it does have the tailgate step assist and that tailgate shuts nice and solidly. As we go down this side of the truck just as clean as the passenger side, no dents or dings down this side, it does have the capless fuel fill which is a really nice feature. Driver's side door code entry has the power fold in mirrors with the built in directional signals, inside the Lariat package gives you the black leather interior, there are no rips or tears on the seats, they are in pretty nice condition, memory driver's seat, factory all weather floor mats, power windows, power locks and power mirrors, auto headlamps and power pedals. As you can see this truck has 74,514 miles, cruise controls on the leather wrap steering wheel and bluetooth and radio controls on that side, this one comes with a six disc CD changer, turn dial four wheel drive, heated seats, dual climate control, sink for your bluetooth cell phone, see a cigarette lighter, it's never been used, smells very clean inside this truck and it also has a factory brake controller. Back of camera shows up in the mirror right there and it does have the home link buttons and power sliding rear window with the built in rear defrost. Passenger seat is very clean as well, no rips or tears on that and it does have an all weather floor mat on that side as well. Carpening is very clean on this truck and we'll take a quick look at the back seats and then check out under the hood. Back seats are just as clean as the front seats, no rips or tears back here, it does have latch child safety system, power sliding rear window with the built in rear defrost, these seats fold up for extra storage and we have an all weather floor mat back here as well. That keeps your carpeting looking nice and clean. Take a quick look under the hood, at the 3.5 liter V6 EcoBoost motor, engine bay is very clean, runs very smooth. This truck has been fully safety inspected, has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off and this truck is 100% ready to go. To see more pictures of this truck or one of our other 400 new and used cars, trucks, SUVs, minivans, Wranglers, half tons, we quarter tons, one tons, you name it, we got it, go to our website www.SummitAuto.com, full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle on our lot, videos of every single used vehicle that we have all at SummitAuto.com, thank you so much for checking out the video. If you want to make this one yours, give us a call right now,<PHONE_NUMBER>, ask for one of our sales associates to make this truck yours today. Once again that number is<PHONE_NUMBER>, thanks again for checking out the video, if you want to check out more go to www.youtube.com slash summit auto remember to like, subscribe and share on this truck and all the videos you see there, in fact in a second you'll see a link to subscribe to our YouTube channel on your left, a link to more half ton truck videos like this one on your right and if you have not been to our website on the bottom link to this truck on our website, click those, check us out and we really look forward to helping you with this super clean 2011 Ford F-150 Super Cruise Short Box, thanks again.


Fygoedd i chi, gallu gyda'n gwylwg. Fel ydych chi'n ddweud ddim i gael i chi. Felly, rydyn ni'n Andrew Agabac. Fygoedd i'n llai ar y Cyfrofod Bywyd Agaibach. Fyrddwn i'w parwyddo, a gwylwch chi'n mynd i ymweld. Dwi'n mynd i'n hath o wath ddiolch, ond yn gyfraithio ar gyfer hynny o argymau gwylwg a'r cyffredig i gyfraith. ...egwyd yn mesafol iawn iddyn nhw'n golygu'r cyfeiri ar y wyernessol.  A o beth, ychydig gyda'r 1 yr lyfyn ysgrifennu... Ynchy mewn ysgrifennu, rwy'n cyfrifiad sydd wedi ei hyn i llunio ymlaen... phobl o rhan o'r cyfrifiad ymloedd ar y cyflugiau cyng각. Rwy'n cyfeirio gydag yma, yfynig yn 100 o shaped bod yw ysgrifennu, a swydd ni'n wnaeth y bydweud ar y dylau ymglygau cyfeinidol iawn, ar y bydd ymgylchedd arni. Mae'n rhaid i'n falch chwell a chwell ei bobl yn rhaid fyddwn ar gyfan cyfeinidol iawn. Rydym yn amlwgol iawn, a rhaid i'n defnyddio hynny, ac y mwyn ffant, ar ddiolch a fydd yn gwneud hynny, Rydyn ni wedi'i cyd-dweud ar y cyfnodd ymlaen o'u ffordd i fod yn ymlaen, er mwyn ymlaen i'r ffordd i gael ysgol. Ymlaen i'r ffordd, mae'n amlwg ymlaen yn gyffredigol, ond mae'r ymlaen yn ymlaen o'r ymlaen, yn ymlaen i'r ymlaen. Ymlaen i'r ymlaen o'r ymlaen o'r dwylo'n mynd i ddim ymlaen. Mae'r ymlaen i'r ymlaen o'r ymlaen o'r ymlaen i gael ymlaen is not so much run cost reduction, but actually the agility and efficiency in making change go faster and more effectively. Secondly, that sort of lift and shift your existing servers into infrastructure as a service. Yeah, there's some benefits there, but the real prize is actually when you move up the stack to platform as a service and software as a service. The third conviction is that in addition to all this conversations about the platform and the technology, actually the ways of working, the engineering processes, the software development life cycle, changing that part of how you work is just as important, and I think there's some cool connections with the way the open source community thinks about writing software in extended communities and how change happens there. And then maybe this is controversial, so feel free to disagree, ask questions and shoot me down, but I think my view is it's much more valuable to go with a whole hog after working really well with one cloud provider rather than multi-cloud. And obviously there's regulatory challenges, procurement challenges and other questions that will come into that point, but that's my point of view. And then lastly maybe a couple of words on skills, capabilities and ways of working. So maybe a minute or two on each of those points. So we worked recently with one of the largest UK retail banks on their cloud strategy, and the CIO there was under enormous pressure to reduce the run costs of infrastructure and operations and had been through three or four successive waves of cost reduction. And he asked us to come up with an assessment of the business case of moving to cloud. And when we looked at the actual, you know, specific applications, specific services that could move into cloud, we said, yeah, there are run cost savings to be had, you know, particularly for more peaky analytical workloads, regulatory reporting, those sorts of things. But actually the business case was quite challenged by the fact there's big upfront migration costs, there's new capabilities to be developed around how you monitor the ongoing usage costs in the cloud that can ramp up quite quickly, and the shift from sort of upfront capex, you know, project-based funding models to the ongoing OPEX based usage models. But when we looked over to the change side of the shop, you know, this is a bank that has a change portfolio of just under £3 billion a year. So a really substantial change portfolio. They had just huge challenges with just basic things like provisioning a server for a project would take six weeks. Every time there's a new project, the project manager has to go out and say, give me a development server, give me a test server, give me a test environment, give me a pre-prod. And every single time it's six-week lead time and sometimes longer depending on, you know, what special variety of technology was needed. And it was pretty compelling that moving to cloud-based provisioning was going to take that six weeks down to, I mean, it could be six minutes, right? But say a week, you know, taking from six weeks down to one week, that's a five-week acceleration for every single project the bank's doing. So if you take your £3 billion portfolio spend, which presumably is delivering more than £3 billion of business benefits, and you say, OK, let's let me take five weeks off of that. I'm bringing, you know, 10% of that £3 billion from next year into this year. I'm accelerating all of my business change. That's £300 million worth of value. You know, that funds an awful lot of cloud acceleration. That funds an awful lot of, you know, open source agile projects. And so we established and convinced the bank that the prize in accelerating business value of change was far, far greater than saving 10, 20, even 30% on some of the infrastructure. And knowing, of course, that those infrastructure run cost savings only come when you've got the last transaction and the last application off and you can decommission it and move things. So that's our first thought. Second conviction, moving up the stack to platform as a service and software as a service. So another one of my banking clients had a reasonably chunky application. I can't remember exactly many 60, 70 servers, something like that, you know, web server application server, database server, typical, you know, multi-tier application, but they decided to move into the cloud as one of their first cloud projects. And they had intended to containerize it and make it a little bit more cloud flexible, but ran into a few obstacles and decided to keep the existing architecture, which required, you know, due to the way it had been built, required a fixed ratio of web servers to application servers to database servers. And they thought, OK, cloud's really flexible. We can move things in. How hard can it be? Well, it turned out that the performance characteristics of the application, once they'd moved it to the cloud, significantly changed the ratio of application servers to web servers to database servers. And because the ratio between them was fixed, they ended up actually having to scale up to 900 servers in order to make this application work in the cloud, which, of course, completely killed the economics. And so I think, you know, this is an area where open source, you know, through Kubernetes and indeed many of the high level platform services that have become very powerful and prevalent in the cloud world is so helpful. You know, just breaking some of those fixed ratios, breaking down some of the monolithic applications makes such a big difference. Another one of my clients, we did some assessment of the root causes behind many of their issues, incidents and outages. And it turned out that more than 50% of their incidents were nothing to do with functional issues in the code. We're simply down to changes in configuration and software versions between what happened on the developer's workstation, what happened in system test, integration test, pre-production test and so on. And there's clearly just fantastic tooling now available in the open source community and indeed from the cloud providers if you're prepared to move from this sort of siege mentality of old ways of working. Which brings me to my third point, which is around the fact that it's not just about the platform, but also about the software development lifecycle. And, you know, very often the move to cloud is associated with an adoption of agile ways of working and it gets very excited about, you know, we're going to go agile, we're going to have two-week sprints, it's going to be amazing. And you have your two-week sprint and then you need to pause for nine months of system test, integration test, pre-prod test, you know, non-functional test. And clearly that's just completely broken. It's completely nuts. You can't work agile if you have to have that kind of siege mentality in order to be able to adopt the cloud agile ways of working. And this is where, you know, I'm preaching to the choir, I'm sure, but it's very obvious that the open source community has developed fantastic capabilities at different levels in the stack from infrastructure as code, terraform, Ansible, Chef, Puppet and so on up into container orchestration where Kubernetes I think is really should be seen as the minimum level in the stack that people should be aiming for. I was really surprised, a bank, even as recently as a year ago, 18 months ago, was saying, you know, is Kubernetes really well-established? Is it well-recognized in the industry? Is it definitely the future?  And I felt you need to get out more. And, you know, it clearly is well-established, not only, you know, as a platform in its own right, but as an interoperable platform, you know, between different cloud providers, which we'll come back to when we talk about multicloud in a minute. And then, you know, monitoring in other levels in the stack. And one of the seminal articles in the world of open source is Eric Raymond's article and then book, The Cathedral and the Bazaar. And I'd like to share my sort of 2021 take on what he wrote, or at least an aspect of what he wrote, which is that in agile and cloud adoption, you want to empower your individual squads, your individual value streams to work as independently as possible and as rapidly as possible. And my assertion would be there's a paradox in that that you have to be ruthlessly prescriptive, actually about a small number of things in order to enable these teams to have the freedom that they need. And a colleague of mine, John Webster, sometimes describes this as the choice between being Catholic and being Buddhist. He says, there's, you need to be the Pope and define top down, thou shalt for a small number of things, you know, things like, OK, what container orchestration tool are we going to use? You know, what source code, source, what, what, how are we going to do our source code management orchestration? You know, what monitoring fabric are we going to use? You know, you don't have to define what editor people are going to use. You know, you'll start a religious war there if you try and go into that world. But if you define a few things very prescriptively, then you can give the freedom to the teams to say, OK, I know that if I change this, I'm not going to break my neighbouring component or my upstream or downstream service because I am, you know, I know that when I check this code in that Jenkins is going to automatically kick off and run a set of automated regression tests so that we can all have confidence that I haven't broken the last known good built. And I think having the confidence and the courage to prescribe a few things in order to enable rapid throughput is so important. Another one of my clients, we did some analysis. We found that the average time from unit test complete on a developer's workstation to beginning integration tests, I haven't done anything, just beginning it, was 86 days. You know, if I asked you to go back three months to, you know, what Excel spreadsheet or code or PowerPoint or whatever, you know, you might have been working on three months ago, you know, probably all of us would say, I have no idea what I was doing. You know, and if you said, you know, somebody has made 100 or 100 different people have made other changes to that spreadsheet in the last three months. And now I'd like you to find out why the formula in cells C 97 is not working.  What a broken way of working. And yet, you know, there are lots and lots of organizations that continue to work that way, rather than having, you know, at least a good overnight build, or if not, you know, a regression test every time you check code in. It makes such a difference to the speed at which bugs can be identified and fixed. And so you actually paradoxically get by moving faster, get higher quality code. Whereas normally people think, well, if you move fast, you might break things. Actually, there can be a win-win. One cloud versus multi-cloud. If you're after a provocative, even snarky view on the subject, I don't know how many of you are familiar with Corey Quinn. He runs a AWS pricing consultancy called the Duckbill Group. And he's great on Twitter.  And I wouldn't go quite as far as that. But I would have some sympathy for his point of view. And I think having worked with a number of banks on their cloud journey, you know, most large complex banks find it takes them, I don't know, nine months at least to get a new, you know, cloud relationship up and running. And often if they're trying to engage with multiple different cloud providers at a time, it can take 18 months, even three years, before real production workloads delivering value. And that's just far too long. I attended a meeting recently with Andy Jassy, the new head of AWS, and he was, you know, loudly proclaiming that GE, one of his clients at the CIO there, had set a goal of having 50 applications moved into cloud in the first 30 days of them adopting AWS. They didn't quite make it. They got to 42. But, you know, he was very proud. That was, you know, a pretty spectacular track record. So it is clearly possible to move very fast into the cloud. But I think the complexities of regulatory approval of, you know, legacy tech complexity and so on in the banking world often, you know, create large obstacles to moving fast. And often that's not so much the tech itself, but it's also things like the ways of working. You know, if you've got a relationship with an outsourced provider that says every time you want to make a change to your infrastructure, you've got to fill in a request for service, you've got to wait 48 hours before they come back and said, oh, that's a special service. You know, you're going to have to have that priced up specially. There's this sort of intrinsic ways of working challenges that also get in the way here. And I think there's, you know, if for each new cloud provider you've got to figure out how we're going to do provisioning, how we're going to do identity and access management, how we're going to do incident management, how is that going to integrate with our on-prem world, you know, it's a lot of work to get it right. And if you're trying to do that with AWS and GCP and Azure and, you know, Oracle and IBM and everybody else, God forbid, you know, then it's an overwhelming amount of complexity. And even though everyone likes the idea of not being tied to a particular provider, not having vendor lock-in, in reality you can find that the complexity increases, the risk, the execution risk increases, and the benefits of multi-cloud can seem rather illusory. And I think, again, open source is playing a big role here in reducing the extent to which vendor lock-in is really a problem. You know, if your containers are Kubernetes compliant, you know, it is actually pretty straightforward to move things, you know, for one cloud provider to the other. You know, if you really, really wanted to, you could do it dynamically, but I don't know if any banks are doing that live in production, you know, it's theoretically possible. But the, you know, the important thing, the thing the regulator would want to know is that, you know, if there were a big problem commercially, technically, however else, you know, how difficult would it be to move things? And, you know, this is where I think at the risk of offending the regulators in the room, this is where I think the regulators sometimes don't help themselves. You know, just if you look through the regulatory guidelines on the use of cloud, a lot of the language is framed around the idea of material outsourcing. And that's not stupid, you know, clearly moving to cloud does have an outsourcing dimension to it, but it's often not considered in terms of the relative risk of the move. You know, if I'm in a picker bank, if I'm Lloyd's bank and I'm moving a terror data application into AWS, right? Lloyd's bank's market cap is what, 30 billion, terror data is 6 billion, right? AWS is 1.6 trillion, right? I've got an existing app that's on terror data. I'm completely vulnerable to them if they go bust. And yet, if I want to move that application into the cloud, suddenly I have to jump through all of these hoops to prove that I've got a way of coping if Amazon were to go bust. I mean, it's just a bizarre way of thinking.  You know, the relationship perhaps with Amazon could go wrong. I do need to have a plan.   And why should I have to jump through many, many hoops of approvals internally and with a regulator in order to be able to move it to the cloud? Fifthly and finally, cloud skills and capabilities often end up being a key enabler of the move to the cloud. You know, a number of my clients are adopting cloud technology, not just because it's, you know, of the benefits we've talked about, but also because they want to attract and retain the best talent. You know, we heard at the beginning of one of the earlier sessions that, you know, that's a really important challenge for banks. If you want to be able to compete with the web giants, you want to be able to compete with the fintechs, you need to be able to demonstrate that we're working with, you know, cool, exciting technology. And so actually a move to the cloud can be a great way of demonstrating to new young talent that if you come and work for us, we're not a funny daddy old bank working on, you know, ancient technology that won't help you with your career. Actually, we're working with some leading edge technology. But in contrast, you know, most banks today actually have had to skill up for their existing landscape. And so there is a real steep learning curve here. And I think the positive side of things is that because the economics, because the way economics of cloud service provision work, they have this, the cloud service providers have these very attractive recurring revenue streams. They're typically highly motivated to help train and train your staff. And so they will throw or be very generous, shall we say, about access to their training, their certification processes, providing that you're willing to make a commitment of a reasonable amount of your workloads to move into the cloud. So I'll stop there. And those are my five convictions on how banks get value from the cloud. The value is about the speed and cost of change, not so much about the run, that you don't get that much from lifting and shifting your existing tech into infrastructure as a service, but moving up the stack to PAS and SAS and making the most of that great open source platforms and enablers that you have to change your software development lifecycle and your ways of working to move from the siege project mentality to continuous integration, continuous delivery, which by the way doesn't have to be the same everywhere in the bank. The value is typically in the channel systems, in the analytical systems. If you want to have daily releases there that say, OK, our core banking system, our payment system, monthly or quarterly is totally fine, again, that's one of the benefits of the new ways of working. And then getting real workloads, real value delivered on one cloud provider as I would push for way ahead of chasing the multi-cloud, even if it means having to work hard with the regulator and with your internal procurement and other approvals and invest in those cloud skills and capabilities, including all the great open source tools that are available. I hope that resonates. I'd be very happy to take questions, maybe over coffee. I don't want to keep you from your coffee break any further and looking forward to joining you for the rest of the day. Thank you very much.