Hey there, welcome to the anxious truth Something a little bit different today. I'm actually on the north shore of Long Island on a beach with nobody on it And I promised that I would do a series of podcasts where I went to places that I used to be terrified to go to and I would record those Podcasts this is number three in that series So I just want to talk to you for a few minutes today about what it was like to be in a place like this when I was at my worst I Would have never come to this beach Especially this time of year where it's pre-season. It's a little bit of a colder day as you can see it's really windy I hope you can hear me and There's nobody here on this beach I mean, there's a few scattered people around but but I could count them all on one hand And they're all really far away. They're really quite far down that way and really far behind me So I walked the ways out into the sand to get to where I am now And I would have never come to a place like this because I am too far from help air quotes help At the time when I struggled the most with panic disorder and agoraphobia I was constantly really concerned that I might need medical attention and so driving here to this beach Through an area where my cell phone doesn't really get service Where there's nobody and where I'm far from a hospital or ambulance or EMT doctors medical attention Just any other human beings that could so-called rescue me would have been out of the question. I would have never done it Yet here I am now So this is what would have been a very difficult place to come to or really an impossible place to come to and I would struggle To come to places like this even with other people when I was at my worst like with my family And when you live on a place like Long Island, which is surrounded by beaches It's what we have on all sides of us It really tends to point out how restricted your life is because going to the beach and being on beaches and Being by water is sort of baked into what we do here. It's the way I grew up It's what I know and I was not able to do that for a very long time So I thought that today coming to this beach on the off-season with no one here when it's pretty much deserted And if something were to happen to me, I don't know if anybody would be able to save me was probably worth doing so If you are in that same spot right now and you find that your life is very restricted because of this sort of thing You are afraid to be too far from health too far from medical attention Worried that something is going to happen to you because you interpret being anxious as a medical emergency Or as being dangerous or as something you need to be saved from I get it because I used to miss out on all of this And it's beautiful because I was just too afraid to come here because I was afraid of my own body and afraid of my own mind But now I'm really happy to be here. It's actually it's a little windy today as you could tell but it's nice to be here recording I recorded I think last year of the year before I did one podcast episode on the beach And I really loved it and I thought oh, I'm going to come back here and do it again Just that I'm going to talk to you about why so long it was really really difficult for me to do this Not even really difficults. I would have to admit virtually impossible So again just to reiterate if this sounds like you and you find that your life is severely restricted because you fear that you Cannot be too far away from health When you panic or when your heart is racing or when it feels like you're going to pass out But when it feels like you're going to have a psychotic break and you think you need to be saved I hear you. I hear you. It used to be you too But the topic of today's podcast is not just that the topic of today's podcast is how do I stay recovered? People often ask me for tips like okay life after recovery. What do you do to make sure it doesn't come back? How do you stay recovered? And really the answer to that is that I don't do anything to stay recovered primarily because I don't have to do anything to stay Recovered now one thing I will tell you is one of the habits that stays with me post recovery Is that I always make sure to not go into avoidance mode? Listen even for people who are not anxious people who are not dealing with disordered anxiety life could be sometimes scary There are things that make us uncomfortable. There are things that we worry about there are things that we are afraid to do That's true. There are things that stress us out now I'm not going to tell you that I spent my day jumping out of airplanes or bungee jumping or cliff diving or things like that I don't do those things but Any time I am confronted with something that makes me a little bit uncomfortable After the the process that I went through to recover from an anxiety disorder I will automatically go toward that discomfort So if you want to know like what I do to stay recovered I might say that that's one habit that I am in sort of not even without even really thinking about being in that habit I tend to do I tend to go toward Discomfort and toward uncomfortable things and toward challenging things and to a certain extent I believe that maybe that does somewhat inoculate me and keep me from sliding backwards because we all to have a propensity to Slide backwards But the reason why I started by saying that I don't need to do anything to stay recovered is because the way I view Anxiety the way I view panic the way I view the physical symptoms the way I view the thoughts are very different than the way They used to be viewed years ago and in last week's podcast. I believe it was last week's podcast I talked about or one of the podcasts recently. I don't remember I did talk about how you will judge Your anxiety based on how you feel about it today and when you project yourself into the future You think about it the way you are today So you will put the today version of you in the future and think there's no way I could ever not be afraid of this But that's because today you was afraid and back in the day I was afraid of it too, but the difference is I'm not that person anymore So I don't really have to do anything to stay recovered because in a way there's nothing to recover from Now I don't know if that makes some sense if you're struggling and you're in the thick of it right now That might might not make a whole lot of sense But I promise as you go down the road and as you work on this and as you continue to work the process It will begin to make sense to you. I promise it will Because in the end you're the one that's changing right I did talk about that pretty recently You're the one that's changing the anxiety is not changing the anxiety isn't going away The anxiety isn't getting any different you're changing and you're forming a new relationship with it And you just see it differently So I don't have to do anything to stay recovered because I have nothing I'm not afraid of anxiety anymore It doesn't occupy the same place in my life that it once did it doesn't have an influence on what I do It doesn't make decisions for me. It never factors into anything that I do if I got a phone call right now That said hey, why don't you hop on a plane and come to Colorado to visit me? I would do that or not But whether I did it or not would have nothing to do with how anxious I think I'm going to be or whether I might panic in an airport or whether I might be too far from home None of those things enter into my mind or my thoughts ever anymore So I don't really have to work at staying recovered at all because there's nothing to recover from I'm just not afraid anymore So if I have a panic attack alone on this beach, I know that it'll be over. It won't be nice I don't like it. I don't want to have a panic attack on this beach But if I did have a panic attack on this beach, I know that it would not be the ruin of me It would be really uncomfortable and scary and I would like it to be over quickly, of course But I know that it will be over and then I'll go about my business as best I can So it's really important for me to say that now. Does that mean that I never take care of myself? I don't I just run myself into the ground. I have no healthy habits. Of course It doesn't mean that I would like to think that I make my best effort to take care of myself The way anybody should probably take care of themselves regardless of their anxiety or mental health situation I'm I have terrible sleeping habits. I will freely admit that I'm working on that. I really am I promise I'm not making good headway, but I'm trying But I try to eat well. I exercise all the time. I meditate every day. I try to stay engaged with hobbies I try to maintain healthy relationships of my life. I do all of those things because they're just good for human beings to do Does that help me stay recovered? It probably does because it means that I'm able to keep my stress level Relatively low even during stressful times and it's gonna spike It'll just come back down again, and I didn't I think I do a really Reasonable job of managing my stress levels So I never get to the point where I'm so overwhelmed that my psychological flexibility and resiliency drops way down Because I will tell you what it would mean to stop being recovered or to have a relapse It would mean that I would experience some sort of psychological challenge in the form of a scary Physical sensation that I interpret somehow is dangerous or a scary thought or just general sense of fear or doom or Some scary thought that I used to have about death or existential problems or not existing anymore Or getting some disease or something like that I would experience what I used to experience and then I would choose to deal with that in the old way Now is everybody vulnerable to that? Yeah We are all vulnerable to that especially in times when we're under the gun And like I said our flexibility and resiliency might drop down a bit. We are vulnerable to that We are we are vulnerable to making choices to do things in the old way the way that got us in the hole The way that ruined everything the way that helped the disorder develop and get maintained So are my healthy habits now sort of keeping me out of that trap? Yeah, they probably are to a certain extent, but I don't do them for the purpose of Keeping the anxiety at bay or making sure I don't have a relapse I don't plan any of my life around making sure that I don't go backwards or keeping it from coming back I never ever think about that. In fact, this is the most I've thought about that in years and years and years Only because I get asked all the time for my tips on maintaining my recovery and I'm like, okay It's about time that I record that podcast episode so here I am. But otherwise I never think about these things I never say I really should sleep more or else I might be anxious I say I should sleep more because I don't like being tired and I am tired a lot so more and more that's become a thing and it's like okay So this is gonna prompt me to try and change my sleep habits But it has nothing to do with feeling anxious or afraid or like oh, I'm not getting enough sleep So my anxiety is through the roof. I never think that I never think that I should make good food choices For my mental health. I mean my physical health certainly helps to buoy my mental health There's no doubt about that, but I don't make those choices Specifically to try to manage my mental health or keep a relapse from happening or going back to square one So how do I sum this up? It's a relatively short episode that I just wanted to ought to bring you to this place to record This is a place that I was once unable to come to to record Especially by myself, but I really wanted to kind of go through that. What do I do to stay recovered? What do I do to make sure that I don't relapse? What do I do to make sure that I don't go back to square one? What do I do to make sure that it doesn't come back? I do nothing because The it that you are so worried will come back one day doesn't exist There is no it for me anymore There might be anxious feelings. There might be fear. There might be discomfort There might be physical sensations of stress or anxiety or distress, but there is no it So it's very important for me to say that what do I do to keep it from coming back? I do nothing to keep it from coming back because there hasn't been an it in my life for a very long time So that's it. It's a relatively short episode this week. I don't have a whole lot more to say about that I just let me recap quickly. So I'm not misunderstood. I am a big fan of healthy habits I think everybody should take care of themselves Everybody should take care of their body. Everybody should take care of their mind. Everybody should take care of their emotional health Their spiritual health. You should do all of those things. Everybody should do that but I am not a fan of those things specifically Because of what that it's good for anxiety or because it's a recovery trick or because they're anxiety shields I don't think that at all I just think that those are things that everybody should do because it does help us live You know a more productive life a more fulfilling life a less encumbered life Like it gives us choices. It gives us freedom take care of yourself because it's a smart move to take care of yourself You get one life. You get one body like take care of it So I am a fan of those things But I am not a fan of those things just to maintain recovery or to achieve recovery or to stop anxiety for happening None of those things. So yeah, I have a lot of healthy habits I will continue to have a lot of healthy habits But I do them just because they're smart choices They have nothing to do with anxiety and they have it in a very very long time I used to have a lot of habits that I would tie to anxiety But I learned a very long time ago that they had nothing to do with my panic attacks So they had nothing to do with my recovery at all and toward that end I will leave you with something a little bit cheeky Listen, I know a lot of people in this community who are kind of proud of the fact that they got recovered and have stayed Recovered on a steady diet of chocolate, you know, cola and cigarettes And that's true. Those people do exist and they are living those lives fueled by chocolate cigarettes and cola You know hamburgers mcdonald's like I know a lot of people that almost view it as a badge of honor that they have terrible diets They don't exercise they don't meditate and they recovered and they are still recovered today So there you go the proof was in the pudding in a way and I always enjoy when those people speak up I'm not sure why sometimes they get so passionate about that. That's fine. You live your life any way you want But that's that's the deal in terms of like recovery habits and staying recovered and especially for me There's nothing to maintain the recovery. Is it recovery anymore recovery was a process Recovery isn't really a state that I live in. I just live. I don't have to live recovered. I just live So thanks for listening to me. Thanks for coming along to the shores of Long Island sound with me I hope that the sound is okay. I'll probably have to rig it a little bit when I get back to the studio and play with it so you can hear me, um I don't think i'm going to do a uh next week or going to talk about I don't know we're going to talk about next week As usual but I will be back for another podcast. I don't know where I'll be Maybe I'll just be back in the office to do what I can't really tell just a quick reminder If you're watching this especially if you're new to the podcast if you're watching on youtube Hit the subscribe button like the video leave a comment twice a week at least I circle back to youtube and answer my comments If you're listening to this as a podcast on spotify or apple podcast or some platform that lets you rate or review the podcast Leave me a five star rating Maybe write a quick review if you really dig it because it helps other people find the podcast And then other people get the help that I am trying to provide to as many people as I can And that's it. Thanks a bunch. This is this episode of the anxious truth because I don't even know what episode number this is Thanks for hanging out and I will see you next week Remember keep moving forward because every step forward you take counts no matter how small it is. See you later


On any given day across the fleet, commands are supporting the oversight operations of Congress. Did you know that you have the opportunity to not just participate in, but to shape those operations as a Navy legislative fellow? I wanted to broaden my experience outside of the Navy and even more so outside of the executive branch. So I felt that this opportunity would give me a unique perspective on how policy is not only created, but how that policy is an active and how the Navy interacts with Congress. So to understand those things, I believe that will make me a better leader. One of the biggest takeaways that I've had is that the fellows program is actually critical to the manner in which these offices run on a day-to-day basis. Fellows provide value that honestly, I don't think anybody anticipated when this program was started. When we get there, we're interacting with these 25 to 28-year-old staff members. And when we're interacting with them, they are asking us questions about our military service, about our time, interacting with joint operations, interacting with foreign nations. And they're trying to get a true pulse for what is happening out there in the fleet. And by virtue of providing that perspective, we allow them to get an inside view so that they can adequately and appropriately conduct their oversight procedures. After your one year on Capitol Hill as a legislative fellow, a follow-on utilization toward the Pentagon is likely. The congressional fellowship was incredibly valuable for me as I was able to take that congressional perspective and understanding of how the members and the staff, you, the Navy, and bring that perspective back here to the Pentagon where I was able to assist Navy senior leaders in communicating back to the Hill and bridging that communication divide. I got to see across the Navy that I would not be able to see it any other way. I've seen a thousand miles wide and an inch that crossed Navy into areas. I've seen and understood how they interact with the Navy fleet as a whole and parts I would never see in my own straight-step URL tours. I get to sit and I've had a chance to sit with and watch Navy leadership, senior leadership up close with the Secretary of the Navy, the CNO, the DCNOs, fleet commanders. And I've watched their decision-making and provided advice on decision-making. I think the Navy Legislative Fellowship is a once-in-a-lifetime experience. It's invaluable for any Navy officer. So it allows you to kind of step outside of your parochial wheelhouse and get a truly in-depth understanding of how the entire American governmental picture operates as one team and one fight, as we say here in the Navy. This is a very unique opportunity that gives you the chance to broaden your network, both professionally and personally, in order to work with Congress and be part of a bigger organization. Because one, it's a very competitive program and it puts you up in front of your peers when you're getting into the fleet. And it gives you that experience in the fleet that you need now.


Live from Las Vegas, it's theCUBE. Covering Dell Technologies World 2018. Brought to you by Dell EMC and its ecosystem partners. Welcome back to Dell Technologies World. This is Dave Vellante with Stu Miniman. And you're watching theCUBE, the leader in live tech coverage. We go out to the events. We extract the signal from the noise, break it all down, Stu. This is our ninth year at Dell, EMC, Dell EMC, Dell Technologies World. Yeah, I mean Dave, an old EMC world was one of the first places I met you. I think it was like 2008 or something like that. There was like a little blogger lounge. Yeah, this is 15 for you. I think it's 11 or 12 for me. So it's been quite a run. I mean, you remember the early days of this event that was really a technical show. And I think that's probably why it's had such staying power. Because the roots are embedded in technology. But wow, what a long way we've come.  We were looking at photos of us like shoved in the corner with horrible lighting and no good cameras. And we got a massive crew here. You're always looking sharp as usual. Thank you Stu. And yeah, I mean, that first year, I was wearing like a vendor polo. No hoodies. No hoodies back then. I wear a hoodie some now. But it's interesting for me especially since I spent 10 years working at EMC. I'd been at Dell World for four or five years. Kind of the mashup of those two is the biggest tech merger we've been covering since it was announced. This show has a lot of Dell overtones. So you and I had been that Dell World was originally like that CIO event. You had people like Bill Clinton and Elon Musk up on stage here. At this show, we got people like Walter Isaacson up on stage. I love reading his books, listen to the podcast. Andy McAfee who you and I have interviewed a few times talking about the second machine age. So some of those kind of high level business issues as opposed to the deep in the portfolio, Dave Donatelli upstage, walking through 37 different product announcements. So back then, did you have hair or was this? Yeah, come on Dave. When I started at EMC, I was seven foot tall and had hair. Years of tech beat me down. But so let's look at this merger, Stu. We go back. We've said, you and I have talked about this a lot. It was inevitable. You had Amazon coming in hard, driving margins of the enterprise down. Something had to happen to HPE. Something had to happen to EMC, these infrastructure companies. And we said at the time that what we're going to see is 19% gross margin company married to the 60% gross margins company come somewhere together in the low 30s gross margin. That's exactly what we've seen. The thing that's a little bit surprising to me is we've seen growth out of Dell. You're not seeing a lot of growth out of many enterprise infrastructure companies that are large in incumbents. Obviously guys like Pure Storage grow very quickly. But at the time the merger, we pinned them at what, low 70s and they're now $80 billion. And then we want to break that down a little bit. But did the growth surprise you? It's particularly the client side grew. And then the storage side declined precipitously.  And when they call out 21 consecutive quarters of growth, well, if half the business has grown, that's good. And VMware, doing well. We just interviewed Pat Gelsinger. VMware's clicking well, integrating with the cloud. There's a lot of change there. Just one quick thing, talk about EMC. For me, one of the saving graces for EMC is they never bought a large services organization.  There were some of these things. You look at the companies that have 100,000 services people, they're having to trim down. They're having to spin things out. The Dell spin merges, Dell did spin off Perot. So while there has been some consolidation and some reductions since Dell and EMC have come together, overall, they're growing, there's good. There's new areas that they're putting R&D together. So just to give our audience a little overview, in case you're not that familiar with what Dell has become, Dell Technologies. I mean, essentially you're looking at an $80 billion business. The core client side and infrastructure of the enterprise side comprises about $69 billion. VMware is almost $8 billion. And then other RSA and well, whatever's back then pivotal before the IPO, et cetera, you know, Dell financial, et cetera, is about $3 billion, that gets you to $80 billion. As you said, the client side is about half of the business. It's growing very nicely at around 7% a year and it's about 5.5, 5.6% operating income. The ISG business, which is the core of the classic EMC, all the server stuff, all the networking stuff. It's about, let's see, $30.7 billion, almost $31 billion. The servers and networking side are growing at 20% a year. The storage is declining, you know, quite significantly. Double digits, they're sort of moderating that decline. And it's a higher percentage operating income as a percentage of revenue, about 7%. You'd like to see that significantly higher. Now you go to VMware, right? VMware is 10% of the company's revenue, but it accounts for half of the company's operating cash flow because its margins are operating margins way up, high 20s, low 30s. Yeah, I mean, Dave, it was, you know, I remember at VMworld, I think it was two years ago, I went to Michael, I'm like, Michael, people think you're going to sell that off and he was just foaming at the mouth.  Well, why would he? It's a 35% operating margin business. I mean, Dave, to be honest, everybody watching is, VMware went through a little bit of a downturn. You know, the show two years ago, what was it, right? But NSX is now cooking, VSAN's doing great. There's lots of good areas that they have there. And the cloud picture, I mean, turn back three years ago, Dave, VMware was making statements like, when the old bookseller wins, we're losing, EMC on their side was kind of trying to play a little bit with the public cloud, but it was well understood in the field, public cloud is your enemy. And the market has matured to understood that companies are figuring out their cloud strategy and their application and data strategy. And it's not a winner take all zero sum game. Everything goes to, you know, one of the top three or four public cloud players. So I can ask you, so you feel as though that's sustainable, right? Because I got to say, if I were AWS, I would be looking at this saying, this is awesome. I need to get into the enterprise. I got to deal with the number one enterprise infrastructure player in VMware, in terms of its brand and its presence. I mean, a half a million customers I think is the number. I'm very excited. The flip side of that is the reality is, is that deal for VMware has been a huge tailwind for them. So help us square that circle. Yeah, and Dave, it's nuanced and complicated because when I talk to service providers, when I talk to the channel partners here with VMware and with Dell, they're all starting to work more and more with VMware. So, you know, short-term, next two to three years, I think there's a great tailwind for VMware to get involved here. But my concern is long-term that people get on Amazon and they say, this is great. Look at all these services and all of these things. Maybe I don't need to pay for my server virtualization anymore. Maybe I don't need some of those pieces. What do I need in my data center? Sure, I'll continue, but it's slowly declining. Like you mentioned, storage is on a bit of a decline overall. So, you know, it's death by a thousand cuts. It is that replacement. For me, it's always watching, you know, that data and that applications. It is tough, like super tough. David Floyer always say, you know, migrations don't do them.  But it is something that's happening. It's going to take the next five to 10 years as we look at these shifts. People are building new apps all the time that tends to favor, you know, the public clouds. And there's so much happening in that space. But, you know, the whole Dell family, including Pivotal and VMware, Virtustream, RSA, there are places where they win and still do well. Because remember, of course, none of these companies, it's not like they have 75% market share. So, you know, if you ask Michael Dell, number one thing is he wants to take market share from, you know, HPE. And if he continues to take some of their market share, it can help offset some of the things that he's losing to the public cloud. Well, and you have to take market share in a market that's not growing that fast. But, you know, as we say in theCUBE many times, these disruptions are not binary, right? We still have mainframes, for example. In fact, they're helping their tailwind for IBM right now. So, you can put forth a scenario where, yeah, a lot of these cloud native apps are going to be built, you know, in AWS and a lot of VMware customers are going to do that. But as we often say, organizations can't just take their data and stuff it into the cloud, the public cloud, right? They've got to bring the cloud operating model to their data, to their business. We asked Pat, is it just use case specific the Amazon cloud and IBM, I guess, as well? Or is it really bringing that cloud experience? And he, you know, definitively said it's both. And I presume you buy that. Yeah, and I mean, Dave, I listened to Michael Dell's keynote and he said, you know, their goal is to integrate from the edge to the multi-cloud world. There's things that I want to understand this week. You know, I talked to some of my, you know, the real pep-peller heads here that do really advance type of technology. There's sessions here on containers. You know, there's probably people talking about serverless here at the show. So they're looking at those next-generation things, especially the VMware side of the house, is there at the edge. You and I got to hear really the IoT strategy that Dell laid out towards the end of last year. Edge, absolutely huge, you know, opportunity and there is no clear leader today because it's very early here. So how real are some of these opportunities to really expand beyond the traditional market because, look, Dell's doing great in servers. That's the core of their business. It's the, you know, main driver for a lot of it.  Thank goodness for client side. I mean, that has been, you know, the savior here. What do you think, I mean, you were at EMC for a number of years. What do you think happened to the storage side? That was a surprise to me because EMC is very rarely, if ever, lost share in storage. They have all the held share, bumped it up, doing acquisitions and so forth. But you had kind of Tucci with his hand at the wheel doing tuck-in acquisitions, really focused on maintaining that share. Do you think it was just the disruption of the merger? Was it just inevitable that you had, you know, just the storage business getting too long in the tooth? What happened? Yeah, I mean, Dave, and there's so many things. Everything from the quarter shifted.  So some of it was just financial, where it landed up in the quarter. Some of it, some of the big shifts that are happening in the market. EMC was very early on Flash and did well in it. And they've got the VMAX and they've got the Extreme I.O. And they're doing well there, but there's lots of competition there. Hyperconverge, once again, Dell and EMC doing great there. But there are some of these macro shifts and clouds eating way at it. So I don't have a single answer. It's, there's so many different pieces. You know, storage has always been a knife fight. One of the things I want to understand this week, Dave, is the old EMC, well, we're going to have, you know, nine or 17 different products and they'll all overlap. You wonder if Dell is going, I really expect that Michael, Dell, Jeff Clark are going to stream that in that portfolio. Profitability, make sure that they're getting the market share that they need because the old model might have worked in a growing market, but in a, you know, flat to slightly negative market, it's not going to make a lot of sense. And you already said that. I mean, you made the point, Michael's keynote, the keynotes, generally this morning, no question had Michael's fingerprint on them. But it's much more like a Dell world than a traditional EMC world. We had, you know, Jeremy and Jonathan coming out of motorcycles, all kinds of crazy stuff. You know, much more staid. I think conservative, sending a message of steady, we're here for you to support your digital transformation. We are your infrastructure partner. So, I mean, I think it's clear who's running the company. All right, Stu, well, looking forward to this week, three days of wall-to-wall coverage, double cube sets, you know, check out the cube.net for all the live coverage, check out siliconangle.com, wikibon.com as well for all the research. We'll be back right after this short break. We're live at Dell Technologies World 2018.


O ffordd eraill yn cael gweithio'n edrychwch ganhaeddiol a fy hollwch gweithio'n gweithio ac i'n rhan o'r ffrwyng i thysg iunintelligible oed, ym blwysig ar y deutii clubs o'r cyd-gweithio'n gweithio, mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio bobl yfeddoli, teimlo oherwydd rydyn ni'n ni'n rhaid o hollwch chi oedd yn gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n meddwn ni'n arbyrddol o'r hyn. so, so, my tawt will be largely review, although I'll also show one or two new results, and raise a few of the points that I hope we can discuss in the discussion sections. I'm going to talk about attribution of decadal change, and fundamentally why it's so difficult. It's not, however, going to be solely a sort of a discussion of how terribly difficult it is. I'm also going to be talking about some of the opportunities and some of those opportunities relate to the rapidly growing field of decadal prediction that of course many people in the room are involved in. So the links between attribution and prediction is one of my themes. How do I change the slides then? Well this thing does, does it? Okay, I've done the wrong thing already. There we go. Okay, so as everybody knows and we've already heard this morning I think, the evolution of climate on decadal time scales depends on two fundamental types of processes. One is the internal variability that Mojib talked about and the other is the response to a range of forcings and we can think both about natural forcings like volcanic or solar forcings and progenic forcings. And decadal prediction of course, the basic challenge is to work out well what's that combination of internal variability and responses to forcings that is critical for the next decade. That's the decadal prediction problem. Whereas the attribution problem looks back to events in the past and says well actually what was that particular combination for particular specific observed events. And that includes to what extent the events were predictable because of course some aspects of climate are more predictable than others. So I think it's a fairly obvious but important statement that if we're going to have any confidence in decadal predictions we've got to demonstrate that actually we're really good at the attribution problem. That we can look at all these past events that we've seen in the talks from Jochen and Mojib and say we understand why that happened and we know to what extent it was predictable. Now clearly we're a long way from that situation now but that is what we need to be able to do in order to really have confidence in decadal predictions. So just to say a little bit more about attribution, there are typically two levels of attribution. There's what you might call proximal attribution and ultimate attribution. So proximal attribution is all about what were the processes that were important to some particular event that we saw. Maybe it was some shift in the storm track or maybe we have some evidence that changes in sea surface temperatures really mattered for this event. And then the ultimate attribution is about this distinction between internal variability and forced responses. And both types of questions are important and of course to have a complete understanding we need to be able to do both the proximal attribution and the ultimate attribution for any particular problem of interest. And of course when we're looking at the ultimate attribution that includes questions about well is the forced response just a linear addition or is there actually some interesting interaction here. Perhaps the forced response is manifest in terms of changes in internal variability as we've heard about and that's something that we need to unpick and that can often be quite difficult to unpick. We should also recognise that when we look back at observational records we can see interesting things going on and sometimes there's nothing to do with climate processes there to do with observational issues. So we have to bear that in mind. So we've heard some examples of attribution problems and I think there's no better illustration of how difficult attribution is than looking at all the debate that has been about the so-called hiatus in global mean surface temperature over the last decade. In broad terms we understand that this is some combination of internal variability and forced responses but of course quantitatively the uncertainties remain large and that's because it's a tough problem and I'll say a bit more about that. Some other examples so Atlantic multi-decadal variability mode you've introduced and I'll say a little bit more about that and the Sahel rainfall problem that Yocanon talked about is another good example of really significant decadal time scale changes in the climate system that we need to be able to unpick and get to the bottom of. So why is it so difficult the attribution problem and the prediction problem? Well it comes down to three areas of ignorance as indicated there. So we have ignorance of the characteristics of internal variability in the system. We have ignorance of aspects of the forcing. For decadal time scales the issues around aerosol forcing and volcanic forcing are particularly important. Greenhouse gas forcing is better quantified on the whole and we have ignorance of the responses to the forcings. So we've got these three areas of ignorance. This slide shows the relative importance of these different areas of ignorance when we think about predictions or projections here of global mean temperature and this shows the total uncertainty and then this shows normalised as a function of lead time normalised by the total uncertainty area. And if you look a few decades ahead you see how this is the internal variability and this is the response uncertainty. So those are the most important sources of uncertainty typically a few decades ahead. Further ahead uncertainty about the forcing in this case this includes greenhouse gas forcing becomes increasingly important. This is for global mean temperature. As we come down in spatial scale and time scale then the internal variability becomes increasingly a big issue. So ignorance of internal variability this is a very nice slide that Ed Hawkins put together which illustrates the magnitude of the problem. So these are a set of current climate models and these are simulations of internal variability in global mean temperature from control simulations with these climate models. And what you see is a huge range of behaviour variations in the magnitude of variability and the spectrum of that variability. And these are state-of-the-art models and actually we don't know which is the best model here. We can have a go at saying which might be implausible but actually it's quite a hard issue to constrain because for the real world we can't cleanly separate internal variability from forced responses. So what is realistic decadal variability is a tough problem. Ed did a nice analysis here where he just looked at could we come up with some simple constraints from observations. So in particular what he looked at was just taking the observations and then supposing that the forced response was either a linear trend or some kind of high-order polynomial fit. And then if you look at the residuals and say well we'll call that the decadal variability then you can come up with some constraints that look like this. So on the horizontal axis here we've got the standard deviation of global mean temperature. On the right-hand axis we've got the lag one autocorrelation so how red is the variability. And so this area in the middle might be the set of models that are if you like not obviously inconsistent with observations. And you can see from this basic analysis that actually quite a lot of models do seem to be inconsistent with observations even in this basic parameter of internal variability. So that's important and sobering. And that's just global mean temperature. So then if we look on smaller scales then actually the issue in many ways is even more acute. So this was an analysis that Ed and I did a few years ago and it shows if we just focus on the top panels here. It shows the magnitude of internal variability in surface air temperature obviously regionally here. And the spread amongst models this is amongst the same in five models. And what you find if you look in certain regions that there can be easily be a factor of three in the magnitude of the standard deviation of annual mean surface air temperature between different models. So that's a huge range. And again it reflects how difficult this problem is and our larger uncertainty. So we need to make progress and obviously a key issue here is better understanding the mechanisms of internal variability. And just linking with something that Mojib talked about there how the mechanisms can be dependent on the mean state of a climate model. This is a nice just one figure from a nice paper by Matt Menry who works at the UK Met Office and recently completed a PhD with us in Reading. And this is an analysis of the CMIT 5 model simulations of North Atlantic decadal variability. And the interesting finding here is the high correlation between the bias in these models in the North Atlantic in fact in the Labrador Sea here. So this is the bias in temperature and salinity. And on the vertical axis is a measure of the relative importance of temperature and salinity anomalies for controlling density anomalies. And those density anomalies are critical for affecting the MOC for example, the overturning. So what this analysis shows is that the mean state of the model is crucial to get right if you want to have a reliable simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability. So that's a tough problem. You can't just say well we'll just look at anomalies and not worry too much about the mean state. You've actually got to get the mean state right if you're going to get North Atlantic decadal variability right. Coming on then to response uncertainty. So this is the question of what is the response to particular forcings. It could be greenhouse gas forcings, it could be other forcings. Clearly there's lots of discussion about climate sensitivity, the transient climate response for example. Everyone knows that models show a large range in climate sensitivity. But when we're looking on regional scales there are many other dimensions to response uncertainty. So in particular the issue of circulation change in the atmosphere and ocean is a crucial issue for understanding the decadal variability and change on regional scales. A lot of uncertainty about circulation change as a nice review by Ted Shepard in Nature Geoscience focused on atmospheric circulation in particular. And we need to be very clear that so often we estimate this response uncertainty as in this analysis here, sort of the blue part here. By just looking at the spread amongst different models we say this is some kind of measure of our uncertainty. We need to be very clear that that's a very crude measure of our uncertainty. There are processes missing from all the models and so our true uncertainty is almost certainly larger. The real world may well do things that aren't in any of the models and that in some sense is part of the response uncertainty and we need to understand that. So the big issue here is what I call model adequacy. Are the models a good enough simulation of the real system in terms of their internal variability, in terms of the forcings and in terms of the responses? This is the big issue that's very tough. So let me come to a couple of examples. Well, particularly I'm going to focus on the Atlantic. So the Atlantic is very interesting. This is obviously a smooth record of its sea surface temperatures. But the interesting thing about the North Atlantic is that the decadal variability is large by comparison with both inter-annual variability and actually comparable to the long-term trend in the North Atlantic. That's not true of other regions of the world. So the question obviously arises why is it there? Is it purely internal variability? Is it some response to different forcings? And people have made arguments about the importance of aerosols, greenhouse gases, volcanoes, solar variations. There's evidence about the importance of the overturning circulation. That could be purely internal variability or it could be influenced by forcings. So this is a really interesting problem and it's been the subject of much debate, as many of you will know. But the state of play is there is no current consensus. So let me hope that someone in this room will solve this problem in the next decade or before. Just to go into a little bit more detail, I'm just going to talk briefly about a couple of studies here. One a couple of years ago and one more recently. So one of the ideas about North Atlantic variability, if you like the simplest idea, is that... So if we're trying to explain the variability in sea surface temperatures, a simple idea is that that might just reflect the variability in surface fluxes. And two papers that have essentially argued different versions of that theory are shown here. So the paper by Ben Booth et al argued that changes in anthropogenic aerosols have been the cause of this multi-decadal variability in sea surface temperatures. And the basic idea there was that the aerosols reflect in a more short way, either directly or through their effects on clouds. And that modulated surface fluxes and modulated sea surface temperatures. More recently there's this paper by Clemens et al, which argues that all there is to the AMO is essentially an ocean mix layer response to a modulation in this case of the turbulent fluxes more than the radiative fluxes. So these are interesting ideas, but we should be sceptical. So we need to ask the question, are these models adequate in their representations of internal variability forcings and responses? And related to that question is how are the models compared to the real world? This is a key question. So with regard to the Booth et al paper, so Rong Zhang and others in the room wrote a paper which pointed out that one needs to look at a range of metrics. You can't just focus on sea surface temperature in order to unpick all the processes involved. You've got to look at all the relevant variables. And this paper points out that if you look at a set of relevant variables, for example, north Atlantic heat content, salinity and so forth, then actually there are many discrepancies between those model simulations and the real world. So that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion that just because the sea surface temperatures have evolved in a way that looks similar to the real world, that means that the model is capturing the same processes as dominating in the real world. Another study which I was involved in looked at the observed evolution during this cooling period and found that there are interesting changes in atmospheric circulation during that cooling period, which indeed seemed very likely that they modulated the turbulent fluxes and that that certainly played a role in the evolution of the cooling. There are many other things going on in fact in the north Atlantic that I don't have time for, but I think the basic message is that it's actually quite complicated. There are many processes going on and an overly simple story of Atlantic multi-decadal variability is unlikely to be correct. The other line of evidence that I want to just talk about is the issue of ocean heat transport. So if you have the paradigm that you just need an ocean mix layer in order to understand Atlantic multi-decadal variability, the implication is that ocean heat transport plays no role. Well actually there's a huge body of evidence that ocean heat transport does play a key role and I'll just touch on some of that evidence. So this is from a paper by John Robson who's over there which demonstrated that the evolution of heat content in the north Atlantic in the 1990s, so these are analyses on the left and then model simulations on the right and you can see rather a good agreement between the model simulations and the analyses in terms of the evolution of ocean heat content. And of course what's nice about the models is you can do a closed heat budget, so you can actually work out what were the processes that really mattered. And you can demonstrate that changing ocean heat transport were first order important for this very interesting rapid warming of the north Atlantic. These are heat content records. This is the SST which occurred in the 1990s. And this has been independently supported by a more recent study from NCAR, so it's not just one model. And interestingly it's also backed up by a number of independent studies looking at the predictability of this event. So if you initialise the ocean state you can actually predict this very interesting warming event. And in these three different model systems it's essentially the same mechanism. It's the predictability of an increase in the north wood heat transport that's fundamental to capturing this warming event. So there's lots of evidence that ocean heat transport is fundamental to Atlantic multi-decadal variability. Interestingly there also is some evidence and this is something that needs looking into with other systems that the cooling in the 1960s. Again the change in ocean heat transport was first order important for that cooling. And there is evidence that actually we might just now be going into a state, not unlike the 1960s, where the north Atlantic is starting to cool again perhaps quite rapidly. These are the recent trends in ocean heat content compared to the previous trends and John Robson is going to talk about this further tomorrow. Very interesting times in the north Atlantic. How many, two minutes? Okay, so how rainfall? Very briefly then, so this was just another example. So we, this was the study that Sir Boo and Dong and I did looking at the recovery and cell to hell rainfall that's occurred since the peak of the severe drought. And we were interested to understand the mechanisms that may be going on here. And what we found in these, so these were atmosphere model simulations and we found that across a range of metrics and you can see what they are here. So not just the precipitation but for example the surface air temperature, sea level pressure, aspects of the African easterly jet and so forth. These simulations are able to capture the observed changes quite well which gives us some confidence that the same mechanisms are going on in the model as in the observations. And then if we unpick the relative importance of different forcings the interesting and surprising finding in this particular model was that in fact it's the direct, so these are, this is the impact of changes in sea surface temperatures changes in greenhouse gas and aerosols and changes in greenhouse gases. And actually in this model it's the direct impact of the changes in relative forcing that seem to be particularly important for driving the recovery of the hell rainfall. Now what about model adequacy in this case? Well it's a very fair question and absolutely this study needs to be repeated with other models but it's an interesting idea that actually the direct impact of increases in greenhouse gases has perhaps been very important for the recovery of the hell rainfall. I probably don't have time for this last slide although it's possibly my favourite. So have I got time for this, Jocelyn, or shall I just wrap up? No time but go ahead, I like that. Okay, so it's a little bit of a digression but we tend to think of attribution as being reliant on general circulation models and of course to a large extent it is but the reason I like this analysis is that it isn't reliant on general circulation models and it's just a very simple analysis that I think tells us something important. So what it shows is simply a regression of decadal mean surface air temperature in individual locations against the global mean decadal mean surface air temperature over the instrumental record and these are the maps of the regression coefficients and this is the fraction of variance explained and what you see is that global mean temperature explains 60% or more of local variations in decadal mean surface air temperature over most of the planet over the instrumental record. Now what's interesting about that is that if we had a system that was purely internal variability and here's an example from one model but other models have differences in detail but the fractions of variance are always similar then not surprisingly but importantly the fraction of variance was very low if we had a system that was dominated by internal variability by contrast if we had a system that's dominated entirely by false responses then in principle but if the false responses are entirely linear then in fact we get 100% of the variance explained. There are some interesting regions where perhaps the false responses are not linear but the fact that these fractions of variance are as I say 60% or more is I would say very important basic evidence that we're actually looking at a system dominated by false responses over the last 100 years or so and that as I say that's the result that's not dependent on specific GCMs. The North Atlantic is interesting. So some conclusions there. So there's a close link between attribution and prediction. I didn't emphasise but I did illustrate that I think initialised predictions are a really nice tool for attribution and we should think about them in that way. In order to have any confidence in the predictions we've got to get a lot better at attribution so that's a challenge. Model adequacy is something that we should continually debate. If people show you a model result you should ask yourself have they shown you enough evidence that this model is good enough for the aspects of climate that they're talking about to convince you that this might also be true of the real world? That's a fundamental issue. We can get some confidence in those issues by looking at multivariate fingerprints but there's no simple recipe for how to get confidence. You have to dig into the details. The last point there about AMV I think it's more complicated than a mixed law response to what the fluxes might be doing. I'll stop there.


Bought myself a new project. I always wanted to tackle a Polaris 500. They're known for their cam issues And I ran across one that Had that issue so boys wanted to tackle it.  It's it actually looks pretty easy So I'm gonna show you what to look for what to do how to start out and everything you need to remove so The only thing you're gonna need for this job is an 8 millimeter socket and 10 millimeter and probably a little piece of wire And of course your cam cam so I want to point something out quick See that center lobe That's how it's supposed to look They're notorious for the exhaust lobes wearing out And I'll show you what I mean once I take this apart so the first thing you want to do is Take your rocker cover off there all eight millimeter screws pull that out and then This is a bad design by Polaris, but what they did was they put the rockers and I'm sorry the intake and exhaust valve Rockers all on one shaft and they're known to wear out I don't know if you can see in here Look down closely my center lobe is worn So next thing you want to do is remove a bunch stuff.  That's how you slide the cam out So we're gonna remove that last Another thing you want to do is there is you've got your chain There is a chain tensioner Right here And we're gonna pull those off pretty soon But before we do that and the most important thing you want to do before tearing this apart Is you want to make sure you're at top dead center? A couple different ways you can do that You look here see those two marks up there I'm sorry my Camera's shaky here. I'm trying to hold the laden hold the camera at the same time So you want to make sure those marks are straight up or at an angle? And there's another way you can do that. There is a Access hole here if you've got this on Said I got to do this to hold the camera In the flashlight in there. Don't know if you're gonna be able to see that. Okay. See that little white mark Let me just pull the cover off to see what I mean Okay, so there are marks on the flywheel Somebody already tried to adjust the timing Probably isn't gonna zoom into well, but there's a tee there So with your cover on and you're looking at the hole There's a mark on the cover you line that up with that tee and you're at top dead center When you're at top dead center These marks up here should be straight up on top I like to go one step further. I like to grab a screwdriver put it in the spark plug hole and Move this up and down just to make sure the piston is actually where it needs to be I just kind of watch it. So yep, I am at top dead center Okay, so the next thing we're gonna do is Remove the chain tensioner if you don't remove that This chain is gonna be tight and What I'm gonna do is I'm just gonna take these and let me move the light. I'm sure it's probably right in your eyes Move these bolts and I'm gonna use that wire that I showed you and I'm just gonna hang it up here because If that chain falls off don't at the bottom and you got to pull the flywheel off and Readjust everything so I'm gonna try to do it the easy way So I'm gonna take the change tensioner off. I'm gonna take those three bolts off hang that up and then I'll take my 10 millimeter bolts Or sockets, sorry 10 millimeter socket the one two three four and that should just come off Okay All right, so remove the bolts of the chain tensioner and this is what it looks like so as that wears it Who's in and out there is uh, it's like spring-loaded. There's a way to adjust it So when you install it you push just back and I think Push that clip in I'm not gonna do that now and next thing we're gonna do is Take the rockers off Pulled three of the bolts off just to speed things up a little bit Now we get to see what the real damage looks like Again hard to do with one hand here we go Okay, you kind of see how much where I got going on there get a better shot Cam lobe is pretty well gone It's a better shot under it under a decent light There is actually See how that's worn Right here. It's a pretty good groove there. That's telling me the exhaust Valves were not opening correctly Okay, so I did have to move that elbow the coolant Now I'm gonna take these These off that's for the access cover Once again doing this with one hand hang on Okay, so remove the cover a little bit of oil in there and Kind of see what it is. So now before I remove the cam. I just want to show you a little trick. I did so I removed Those three bolts and I hung a wire up here. I also scribe the mark on the chain To the timing mark just in case I lose it but right now That gear is off the camera. So I Should be able to Slide that out. There she comes. I don't know if you can see that in the camera, but That lobe is pretty well gone I'll bring it over here to the light not much left there Old one Okay, so you've seen how I've done that Basically, you do just the opposite of what I showed you Except for one thing when you put the rockers back in your rockers are installed top double check that you're still at top dead center Check your valve clearances that I have to research out. I don't know I'll look that up and find out But hey, I hope this helped you out because Enjoyed showing you guys. I know there's a much out there. So I'm sure you guys have been looking to Hit the like button if you like my video and please subscribe.  See this Spring in there. You can push this in and it'll stay in Lever here press on that Pushes in if you don't do that When you put this back in It's gonna be super tight and you're gonna wreck your chain So so take that bolt out of the spring in it Install this back in the engine bolt it down put your spring in your bolt back in and that's automatically tension