Hi everyone welcome to Drupal long-term support if you'd like to run out to another talk really quick If you're in the wrong room go now I'm Jeff sheltering From tag1 consulting. This is Jeremy Andrews We initially wrote this talk with Nat catch pole Unfortunately, he couldn't be here at the conference But I've been communicating with him and Fixing all my mistakes in the slides thanks to him. So any mistakes are mine and Jeremy's is mostly mine Anyway, I'm Jeff sheltering. I'm a senior infrastructure engineer at tag1 consulting I've been involved with Drupal since my previous job at the OSU open source lab So I don't know what that was 10 12 years ago gone into Drupal I'm also a member of the centOS QA team. So I'm pretty involved with Linux and systems administration and Just LTS support it for software in general And I'll let Jeremy give a quick introduction as well Hi, I got started with Drupal in 2001 I had a blog called kernel trap that was running on PHP nuke and it crashed a lot Every time I got linked from slash dot and Dries reached out and said hey We're writing this really cool new CMS that has something that no one else has it's called a page cache it's not done, but it's gonna be really great and Then he sent me access to drop.org which predated Drupal and Drupal dot org and Followed up with another email that said by the way, that's root access And please don't delete anybody or change anything just you know look around and see what you think And that's been a great and consistent experience for me in Drupal Which I've really liked is that everybody's yeah, always great That was version 3 something I've been actively writing core code since Drupal 4 and I Like to be involved in this long-term support. I like to make sure that no one's left behind I'm curious. Does anyone here have a Drupal 5 website? Besides you Drupal 6 Okay, Drupal 7 Drupal 8 Anyone on Drupal 9? There was a day where someone would have been on Drupal 9. All right and Nat who's not here is the Drupal 8 one of the branch maintainers And it's unfortunate. He's not here because he has all the answers for this We sure talked ourselves up So I quickly wanted to kind of cover some terminology we're going to use in this talk Specifically LTS Meaning long-term support That's kind of a widely used term in the Linux world Kind of more so now as we're thinking about doing such for Drupal The the exact definition of LTS for Drupal is actually up in the air still kind of the The Agreed-upon definition is something like as minimal possible changes and fixing security issues What that actually may look like in practice? We don't know yet and it may be different for Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 and Definitely those will be different from what happened with Drupal 6 which we'll talk about shortly And the next term is EOL or end-of-life and in the in Drupal context What that's referring to is a release that's no longer supported by the community So anything Drupal 6 and previous are EOL releases And I think I'll let Jeremy cover kind of Yeah, the history of how we got to where we are with Drupal 6 LTS specifically So Drupal 6 was the first Drupal release that had a significant number of Drupal websites left on it when It decided it was gone end-of-life And what that meant was that people weren't happy about that because there were over a hundred thousand websites still using it and We didn't want to just abandon them And so it was an it was the first instance where the Drupal security team supported More than two releases because there was eight there was seven and then there was also six There was a three month window where the community supported for security back patches and during that time they reached out and Got several vendors involved So yeah, we're one of the three vendors. There was Acquia my drop wizard and then tag one We have a product called tag one quo, which is awesome. And if you have Drupal 6 you need to check it out the The key takeaway though with this is it's called Drupal 6 long-term support Drupal 6 LTS Which is confusing because LTS has a new meaning for Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 So I think of it as extended long-term support and it's paid long-term support The way that it works is that if a paying client of one of these three companies has a module and There is a security release for Drupal 7 or Drupal 8. We backport it. We release it publicly And we make sure that our clients get it So what that means is that if no paying client? Uses a module that you're using on Drupal 6 It's not going to get backported as part of this program and That's you know, it's definitely a different a different system, but it's nice because the patches are out there and Specifically if you go to that URL you can find every patch that has been released for a Drupal 6 long-term support there Our product our product is tag 1 quo I won't go much into the advertising except to say that if you're on Drupal 6 and you don't have security patches We're giving away. We have a promotion right now where it's three months free and that means you know Any modules you have will backport them for you There is manual effort involved but sign up now because it's the best time to do it Get your site up to date and It also supports Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 But yeah, that's tag 1 quo Okay, so I'll talk a bit about what's happened in a year and a half Since February of last year when Drupal 6 was end of life At that point there were roughly 115 or 120,000 Drupal 6 sites reporting to Drupal org And that's gone down over the last year and a half The latest report from this month shows 65,000 sites reporting so roughly Cut in half the number of reporting Drupal 6 sites accept them and to cut you out for one second we wrote a crawler to go out and Try to figure out who actually is on Drupal 6 and Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 and While that that is true for sites reporting back There's almost twice that many that aren't reporting back. So it's over a hundred thousand Drupal 6 sites still out there We also did a campaign to contact some of them and say hey We have the service that you can use and it was interesting like a fairly significant percentage of people said wait what my Drupal 6 sites still up I didn't even know that And I guess interestingly that that's only covering publicly facing publicly accessible sites So who knows how many internal sites there may be on Drupal 6 So in that time period since it went EOL and has been supported by these three vendors There's been 25 patches released One of those was for core and a whopping five have been for views Which is nothing bad against views, but it just so happens it's had a lot of security fixes in the last year and a half And just I think this is kind of self-explanatory, but the what are the some of the benefits of long-term support? Basically, it's giving sites a chance to Last longer on their current code without having to jump into an upgrade that they don't have developers for don't have money for And it also is just a way to have a stable code base. That's only receiving Security fixes, so you don't want to take a chance on whatever new features. It's going to be a much more stable code base To add to that also though from like our perspective with quo in addition to this This is kind of community-focused. We also You know We don't we're not trying to pressure anyone to upgrade from Drupal 6 to 7 or 8 or whatever We're going to be around as long as people are using Drupal 6. There's still 10,000 Drupal 5 websites out there too, which we're not supporting but they exist so we're Yeah, anyone on Drupal 6 you're not being abandoned as long as it makes sense to use it which for some people it still does And so Drupal 6 LTS has been pretty well defined What's not well-defined yet is what's going to happen for Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 and beyond So we want to kind of take a look at the current status of issues and discussion on Drupal.org and Hopefully get some discussion here in the room about it as well Looking at Drupal 7 specifically There's currently just under a million sites reporting Drupal 7 back to Drupal.org So it's pretty clear that that whenever it is that Drupal 7 goes end of life It's going to be a lot more sites still on Drupal 7 than we're on Drupal 6 when at EOL So it's something to consider this is going to have a much further reaching impact in the Drupal 6 end of life And Like I mentioned it's still up in the air. There's no date set yet for Drupal 7 LTS or end of life And LTS in this context means something slightly different than Drupal 6 LTS Which is supported by the three vendors when I'm talking about Drupal 7 LTS What I mean is a long-term supported community supported version of Drupal 7 And the plan is to whatever the last release of Drupal 7 is would be an LTS release Where for some undefined period of time that's going to be continued to be supported by The Drupal community and Drupal security team Until it goes end of life So there's kind of an open question also when that end of life does happen Does it make sense to do a similar handoff like was done with Drupal 6 where the security team kind of Stop supporting Drupal 6 and handed it off to the vendors or is there some other better option or or no option I'm not sure. Yeah, and the question is in part in large part dictated by The capabilities the the time capabilities of the security team, you know, it's it is voluntary and It is going to make sense at some point to stop supporting Drupal 7 But that's also going to depend on just at what point The people involved in Drupal 7 don't want to support anymore. There's lots of discussions out there There's proposals out there. It does not look like it's happening anytime soon You know, it's going to be at least a year and a half out I would say is the earliest where it would and this is where LTS would start and LTS will then go on again for You know, don't quote me on any of this but a year year and a half probably as well So there's there's there's many years of usable Drupal 7 lifetime left Drupal 7 is also a bit of a special case as we'll see But things are improving in Drupal 8 and beyond That should simplify upgrades and hopefully make this more of a solved problem Unless of the pain point like it is right now for anyone on Drupal 7 wondering when they need to make a move Do you want to cover this one as well Jeremy? This is basically a summary if if you want to look at Drupal.org these three issues I pulled out Or where most of the activity is happening around Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 LTS and EOL discussion and the current summary of this You want me to jump in or you sure go for it is a The commonly accepted proposal that Both Dries and the core commander seam on board with is start Drupal 7 have an LTS release only once the Drupal 7 the Drupal 8 migration is is fully supported and Migration is fully supported is Maybe a kind of vague definition. I think we all heard Dries's keynote. He said there's still 12 blockers Critical block 12 critical blockers. So, you know in my opinion, maybe that means when those 12 blockers are done Someone else may have a better opinion of what that actually means But that's kind of what they're aiming for currently is is have an LTS release once the migrates complete once D7 and D8 migrate is ready And then have a D7 end of life right around the time of the Drupal 9 LTS release and Drupal 8 is even more complicated If you thought 7 was bad Drupal 8 Theoretically will have an LTS release sometime Around the Drupal 9.0.0 release Whether that's going to happen before or after is it's up in the air We're going to get to some more detail on that in a minute actually And the EO up the end of life for Drupal 8 is also undecided Will it happen after the 10.0 release? Potentially extend till a 10.0 whatever LTS release of Drupal 10 or even Depending on how the Drupal 8 to 9 and 10 migrations work out Maybe Drupal 8 doesn't need to stick around as long Maybe it could be end of life even sooner if there's a super simple upgrade path to 9 for anyone using Drupal 8 I'm actually curious to understand so part of the confusion that we're We're talking about is that we hope things are going to be a lot better And not so it's not confusing because we just don't know what we're going to do It's confusing because if this works as we hope it does Fewer people get left behind people get stuck on old releases is anyone so we're up to eight four in about a month I think is when that comes out is anyone in on 8.0 still or 8.1 or 8.2 So everyone 8.2 and then 8.3 anyone else that's on 8. So that's that's a great sign that people are succeeding in upgrading and following these releases because I Don't know how closely you're following Drupal 8 development But some more significant changes are being made during the 8x development process and And it's working people are upgrading There's do we talk about backwards compatibility later? Yes, okay, and then I'll wait to jump there, but Well, we'll get there. Let's cover this and then you can get there. What's that? So this is basically this is an example image and I didn't create this I pulled it from the release cycle overview URL you can see there and this is Kind of to give you an idea of what it might look like you can you're you're already going to notice that Drupal 7 LTS has not happened yet like has happened on this timeline And also I think what Something a little bit confusing about this chart is The mention of security fixes only There's kind of some Confusion about if there's a difference between an LTS release and then it's locked down even more and there's security fixes only I Think actually the LTS release would be more or less security fixes only and it would only be some very Critical bugs fixed if those are found So this is going to loop loop back more to what Jeremy was talking about with the So there's a lot of interesting discussion out there Nat in particular is is leading the charge on this and and the good news is that this is being talked about not because it's happening Tomorrow it's being talked about because Drupal 6 was the first time we had any LTS and We know it's going to happen again with Drupal 7 so we're we're planning ahead and so with Drupal 8 The goal is that We don't do Drupal 9 until we literally need to do Drupal 9 for some reason What Drupal 9 will mean is is you know anything that's been deprecated is gone But in Drupal 8 an example that gives is you know well Let's say we want to completely rewrite the forum module and completely replace the back-end how it works with entities It's possible to do this in Drupal 8 and to do it as a minor update And and the way that would work is the old forums module would it no one's rewriting forum right now This is just an example But in any case The old version of the forum module would still be there you'd probably remove the UI So you wouldn't be using it from the user interface But then the new version would go in there and they would they would be simultaneously both supported through different namespaces Any code that you have that depends on the old forum module would continue to work because all those API calls everything is there but then Anybody who's you know building new websites would use the new system and then for a series of minor updates It would be there. So we're talking 6 12 18 months That during the 8x process you would have both of these APIs there and any contrib modules would have a chance To to do this migration there's lots of lots of warning and it's not only a chance to do it But it makes sense to do it because you know all these Drupal 8 websites. It's it's alive. It's not something in some future release It's part of what everybody's using The people on 8x here, you know, they're they're keeping up to date and they would keep up to date So the goal is that as a contrib module maintainer you've got plenty of time to bake the switch over The old forum code would only be released then we removed from the code base once 9x goes out So there's there hasn't been an example yet of anything significantly changing like this. It's all talk But there also no one's come up with an example of how that's not going to work how it's going to break So that's definitely where things are leaning right now In these issues Drees does weigh in and several other core Committers and I mean this the the the verbiage up there is something like, you know, this is the plan But we're open to change it at any point So if if we have a better idea or if it doesn't work for some I some reason then we'll change the plan And the one other thing I wanted to call out from this slide is There's actually a recent issue open this 2909 la la la proposing What if we could extend the support for Drupal 8 minor releases? So for example Support 8.3 for maybe a few months after 8 4 comes out So there's not that immediate like hey 8 4 is out go upgrade your sites today. Have fun Kind of give people a buffer to to be able to upgrade safely and do some more testing There's actually no discussion on this ticket yet. So I'd love if everyone hops on there, but Basically at this point, it's just a proposal In my talking with Nat about that issue specifically um He agrees that actually that would likely be very trivial Very trivial amount of work for the core committers and security team Because almost any patch would be able to be directly re-rolled back in the the previous 8.x release So I think that makes a lot of sense in my mind and and that that makes a lot of sense as well because you know If you look at the differences between Drupal 6 and Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 Even there it's not that much work most of the time to backport patches from Drupal 8 or Drupal 7 to Drupal 6 When it affects people there for for long-term support. So certainly between the eight-point releases, it's going to be a lot easier and Do you cover everything you wanted to about the this kind of The only the only other piece of that is that When the other piece of this is Drupal 8 is wonderful. It's it's a good system, but it took too long You know, there were mistakes made One of the great things about Drupal is people talk about that and they're public about it and you know It's all part of the community So these tickets go through and that in particular details some of the the things that could have been done better the problems that we want to solve So so part of that is The goal will be When we release 9 You know for starters 9 9x development will start in parallel So that when it actually gets rolled It's ready to be it's ready to be used and it's going to be you know The 900 release is not going to be a drastically Changed system from the 8 the 8 dot last whatever releases say it's 8.10 for example so Going from the last 8x release to the the first 9x release should be as simple as each of these Simple 8x updates you've been doing and and if this works, you know, this is this is a game changer for Drupal That means that people will be able to stay up to date We'll be able to really you know over slowly get rid of You know our technical debt But continue to make changes In the discussion threads, you know, there's some concerns about you know The internet moves really really fast and if we're always trying to be backwards compatible is eventually Drupal going to get left behind It's an open discussion It's possible that you know 9 will be a nice smooth upgrade and then 10 will be Another major change Again, there's just an awful lot of unknown because that's right now 8x is working very well And we actually intentionally left this talk pretty short because we're hoping to answer some questions or have some discussion about Whether it's d6 d7 d8 and beyond So fantastic and there's a mic please come on up and use the mic if you have any questions or comments Hi Actually, I have two Questions the first When there is a security update security advisory for a Drupal 7 8 Contrib model How the three windows or three companies work together or separately to make it possible to be patched on Drupal 6 Okay, first So yeah, great question. I was actually supposed to tell you that without being asked, but thank you for asking Um We have members on the Drupal security team and so when the patches We know before they're released as everyone on the security team does that there's a security issue But it's not anything that gets talked about publicly until the patches are out So Everybody in in the the companies that are doing this is is involved in that Somebody does a backport If only one of us has a client that has this module then obviously that person is going to do the backport Otherwise it just it just depends but in any case It gets reviewed on this through the security team So anybody in the Drupal security team even can look at the Drupal 6 patches and sometimes do It's a it's a wonderful team. People are really cooperative But yes, we always try our strategy is not to push the patch out as quickly as we can But to take it, you know on a case by case basis, it's super critical It's got to get out there quickly Otherwise, you know, we'll we'll take up the 24 hours to do heavy testing and make sure that by the time It gets out to people that it solves the problem The with Drupal 6 The patch will cannot be released until the Drupal 7 or 8 patches are out there But technically ours can go out, you know a minute later and sometimes it does depending on, you know How much testing is required for the changes And again, regardless of who wrote the patches, they're all on the project on the d6 lts and all accessible to everybody freely That's really cool. Um for a second A few months ago it happened. Um Kind of a lot of months ago when there was for 8.3 a core sec update And it got also Released for 8.2 like I don't know over half a year ago. No less than half a year ago. It doesn't matter What do you think if something similar will happen when 8.4 in the next week or two weeks later? We'll get out And an update will happen a security update for 8.4 Will it be kind of automatically released with uh 8.3? Or what is the strategy? Do you know anything about it? Officially, officially there's going to be one supported branch 8.4 But as you saw with that example, uh, it's also going to be sanely done And if it's an easy back port and a critical back port It would be very surprising for it not to get back ported. Um, it's Yeah, there's a limited amount of time, but we're not going to make silly choices also and say well, we're not supporting that It's not a corporate decision. It's very much a community and support the community decision, which is Drupal Yeah, thank you Drupal versions itself, but backward compatibility what you mentioned I have recently have one issue on my control module like The drupal supports php 0.5 0.3. I don't know Can you make the changes? So it's also related to this long term support Will the it It exists some discussion about that that drupal maybe move faster with minimum requirements like php 5.6 is slower supported or I don't know how it's how we look on this Well, it's problem for control models I don't know in several points to support php 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 7 7 1 7 2 and we can go on and on So I think it's related to this topic. Uh, how drupal can move faster in terms not only the code But the code and infrastructure so So each each I'm not sure understood the question actually So each version of drupal has a minimum requirement for php And are you suggesting then for in the 8x branches that we keep raising the minimum php? Yes So basically for drupal 7 lts I think it doesn't make sense that somebody even if he runs. I don't know drupal 7 in 2022 that he had php 5.3 on the servers So what I can say is that we have a drupal 6 clients that have upgraded to a more modern version than is supported by drupal 6 Which works quite well in most cases and it involves testing So it is possible to do that But I think jeff is better suited to answer this in the sense of what you're really looking at is Working together with you know the linux distributions that are packaging up php and hosting companies which Yes If community invests more time in Latest software and minimum requirements If I have company if I have my websites on some shared hosting and some small site builder and so on and I cannot I don't mean minimum requirements. I will go to a company which has I don't know php 7 or something like that I think it's much simpler Then it's look then then it looks from now like I think Speaking personally, I I like having the lowest possible minimum requirements I'm also the maintainer of the memcash module and I did some did some recent testing to compare You know php 5 some different versions of 5 and php 7 And I mean it was a 2x speed up just by switching to php 7 So on one hand absolutely php 7 you should be using it if you can But if you can't There's no reason to leave it behind I cannot think that we drop php 5 now Okay, for example in php 5 triple 7 now supports php 0.3 0.4 0.5 and 0.6 I think php 5.6 is like The minimum requirement and any modern hosting has Probably seven but so with lte in various linux. I mean what is Red Hat's probably still way back there. Yeah, I mean that's the issue with languages like php on the long-term supported linux, uh, so Most a lot of people are running red hat enterprise 6 for example and that was released with uh php 5 3 So red hat is still minimally back porting security fixes to php 5 3 theoretically Uh, I haven't actually seen any recently though. I don't watch that closely Um, there's workarounds obviously if you can control the server So, uh red hat has a thing called scl I forget what actually that stands for but it's a way to slot in different versions of of languages like php Or you could actually get like apache 2 4 onto red hat enterprise 6 where it shipped with 2 2 and still supports 2 2 um So yeah, I mean there's there's ways around it and there's no great answer to it really because Everyone has different needs Some people want to be on 7 some people want to be on 5 3 for the rest of their lives for some reason just they're afraid of change. I don't know Or they have custom code. That's just too difficult to to upgrade um, like jeremy said, we've had a number of old Drupal 6 sites That started out on probably Whatever version of php 5 or even 4 uh, go to 5 3 go to 5 6 and we're seeing some using php 7 With very minimal changes from my perspective And nearly all the changes are in custom code There's a bit of some contrived module cleanup, but nothing major that we've seen I mean, I guess it'll come down to when there's a php feature that You know is profoundly better for Drupal to use and to make that a minimum requirement Actually, can you talk into this the microphone? Thank you Trying to a little bit help you There is a sniff Sniffer provided sniff That can check your code. Is it kind of ready for php 7? You just execute it as a php CS with the right sniff And it tells you what are the changes that you have to making your code even though Drupal core 7 and 6 are totally fine Mostly the contribs are good But the custom there can be some tricks that you have to change and you To php 7 Thank you. Yeah Any other questions Having in mind the introduction of Drupal 7 long-term support as you have explained And that the transition from 8 to 9 should be almost seamless, let's say We hope In in an enterprise context with a lot of like 100 of Drupal 7 websites and a lot of customizations Do you think It should be better to invest already in a Drupal 8 migration or wait for Drupal 9 Even you know, there have been a few core security updates on Drupal 8 And you know for an enterprise might not be easy to To upgrade hundreds of websites with a zero-day vulnerability something like that What is your opinion? We get that question a lot Through tag 1 when people ask whether or not they should update I would say that Drupal 8 is mostly ready for you now and and that as an enterprise you can probably afford To do it and if you can't afford to do it It is you know, if you're sticking with Drupal for the long term this model that Drupal 8 is moving towards is working And so we expect it to be around for a long time It comes down to how much you can invest as well, though I mean are the contribe modules you need there if not Can you help get them there if not then the answer is no, it's not right for you If you can the community can absolutely use that and there's still lots of modules that are being imported Yeah, from from another perspective, I mean Drupal 7 is not going away anytime soon from the community perspective And you know the tool that we built if it does go away from the community, we're going to keep supporting it as well So it will always to some degree to be supported It's just a question of you know, what's more cost effective for you and you know, what features do you need and It's definitely time to start looking though if you haven't already Drupal 8 feels like a really big change and and then the more you use it the more you realize it's You know, it's Drupal. It's still Drupal and you know in good and bad ways There's silence. So I guess we're done. I've been Asked to remind you all you've probably heard this 50 times There's sprints on Fridays or Friday Let's do them every Friday. Yes, uh, sprints on Friday. Uh, come on down have fun and Give us a good or bad survey response if you enjoyed the talk or not and thank you all for coming Oh, thank you Questions Yes, I know I'm sorry Right, you're correct. We're not the two of us are not. Yeah, but I work with them and we talk to them daily Okay, of course Okay Which one was this? Okay Still So you're referring to Drupal 6 specifically and you're looking to backport patches there or you're looking to So so I do know that there has been at one or two patches that was contributed by the community I don't know if you were involved in that and but unfortunately the reality is that We don't put our stamp of approval on it if it's not if there's not a client using it because Once we've done that then then we're technically supporting it So the only way to do that is to invest the time of testing Spin up a website with whichever modules and and test to make sure nothing breaks So yeah, so that so it's automatic Yeah, I mean it's automatic in the sense that it raises a flag that says somebody has this module There was a security release, you know and now to to turn that flag off We have to look and see does this security issue in seven or eight Effect the six one and then we manually do that and yes or no if it does we backport it If yeah, again, it's it's being used by a client Does that answer your question or no, I'm not sure From Yeah, so you so ultimately that's that is the rub in that He's working on getting his access It should always be No We don't like it doesn't bother me seriously they really Right so so publicly the only way you're going to learn about it is But paying attention, uh, there's no subscription. Well, actually. Yeah as far as I understand it Maybe my drop wizards you can use their module and learn about it without a pain on that shore With ours Sorry to know that it's there, right? It's not Yes, but it would be manual and you would have to like with our service you would only be notified of patches that affect you Yeah, it's not automatic in that sense unless unless you've signed up There's no way to like say hey There's the security issue coming if you want to help back for it because we don't talk about it until it's already public And once it's public we've 99 of the time we've already written the patch We might still be testing it and and sometimes it's really helpful to to see how the dupal 7 or dupal 8 patch goes to Because there's enough similarities that sometimes we've had We'd like views I think was one that there was a back ported patch that had have another back ported patch because of Not understanding some fallout and it affected those releases too So we try not to Not in triple 6 though Test the Drupal's testing framework was just simple test this Drupal 7. Yeah, so Not in Drupal 6. No, we are not Yes, it's very manual Manual and and then sometimes even like working with clients to say, okay, here's the patch Here's the things that we are concerned about absolutely and and people are more than happy to be involved in that And while we sell it as it's an expert service, you know, we do all that testing absolutely will flag if we think it may or may not be a problem Mote and they most of them are not And then occasionally the ones that you think aren't can be I mean It's little things like the letter t instead of the letter t s or something Yeah, like, oh, yeah, or sometimes there's core bugs that aren't exposed until we back port security pitch fix Which is like, oh, wow, that's Unfortunate But you know, it's it's still interesting even though it's Drupal 6 and So I don't know if I've understood your question. You're trying to get on the Drupal other security team, correct? Okay Okay, and are you yeah, there's a process Are you close You're passionate about it. That's good Fantastic. And does Michael know this It's kind of my method. Okay. Oh cool. Well, that's a that's the perfect mentor to have actually He's great. And if if he knows that you're interested Yeah Nice Nice, that's cool. Thanks guys. So did you want anything with that in particular or you just were hoping to meet him and that's all Yeah, cool. Thank you. Well, good luck too. Yeah You then you're wrong because there's no one that knows it could it couldn't That doesn't mean anything though, I mean, I'm sorry, but I mean Drupal.org has comments It may have been in the whole I mean, I feel like lately All the all the references have been around Other release timelines and no dates are set for those really maybe I'd be curious to know who wrote that


There's something bad that's about to happen to me I don't know of what I'm feeling He's so sad, might leave my nose running I just hope this way I don't know me I think of her so much it drops me


Hello people of the internet, my name is Johnny and welcome to an update on the FNAF AR Special Delivery teaser image. If you guys aren't aware, Alumix has been tweeting out a select portion of this gigantic teaser for the AR game and every day they release a new portion of it like I just said. And so it's been a little bit since we first looked at it so I thought, hey, it's almost there like a few more days to go. I think by the end of this week it'll be done and that's probably when the demo is going to come out. So we're stopping like midway here, even though it's not really midway, but you'll see when we get there. But we're stopping about midway to just check in on the image, see how it's doing, see all the new stuff that has been teased, which there are a few new stuff, which is really interesting. Some of it, actually most of it we already knew was going to be in the game, but there are, like I just said, a few new things that we can take a look at, speculate on. And there is also a few things that aren't entirely clear what they mean. So again, we're going to talk about that. And at the end, I'm going to show you all a huge collection of the pieces put together. Well, for now for reference there, I did not actually mean that of all the images so far put together just so you guys can see what it will kind of look like when it's all finished, like I said, around the end of this week. So let's start off. It started on November 11th. So we're going to go day by day and we're going to look at them. And then at the end, we're going to look at them all in their entirety. So November 11th, let's start there. Actually, we already theorized about this one. We did a whole video dedicated to it. So if you haven't seen that, it'll be linked down below and it'll be up in the icard up out there. But just in case you haven't seen it, here it is. It's been on screen while I've been talking for a little bit. But again, we already looked at this, so link in the description. Let's move on to November 12th. Expect a lot of these teasers to just be something simple like this. And while they don't mean anything by themselves, when they're put together into the whole image, they will mean something. So like I just said, this was the image released on the 12th of November. It shows a little bit extra of baby's right arm and hand there. And then there's also a foot down in the bottom left hand corner. Later on, we will figure out who that is just based off of the foot alone. You should be able to tell who it is. And if you are up to date, you actually do know who it is. But there's really not much else to say. They're on a road it looks like because of the whole gravelly cement of the ground. And then there's a sewer drain leading into the sewer, obviously, and then a sidewalk along a building with what looks like barred windows, which is really interesting, and then a brick outside material. So not entirely sure what that location could be, but I guess we're going to find out in the game. Moving on to November the 13th. This one is a very, very simple one. All it is really is just the logo. Nothing we haven't seen before, but there is something to take note of is and that is just to the left of the of the logo. You can actually see what looks like a security camera. So we're not entirely sure if this is going to serve any purpose because as we know so far, all we do is we see the characters coming towards us and then we shock them to get rid of them. That's all we know. We don't know if there's going to be like a actual FNAF section where we're looking at security cameras around our house. Wait, that would actually be super cool. That would actually be really, really cool. I don't know how you would set it up, but that idea is really, really cool. So yeah, I think that would be awesome. I don't think it's going to happen though, but that would be awesome. November the 14th, we get baby's foot and that's really it. We get the other side of the road and it's just more sidewalks in front of buildings. And this one has notably less windows, which is interesting, but it's still a building. So moving on to the 15th. Like I said, expect a lot of these to just be tiny little snippets of information. So 15th and every once in a while, you get images like this, which really just grab your attention.  We have seen him so we know he's going to be in here. And then we also see Mr. Cupcake hiding up in the window. Now, I'm guessing that Chica's up there as well. We just don't really see much of her, but the cupcake is definitely there. And we did know that Chica and the cupcake would be in the game. So this is a really cool image.  So yeah, there's the 15th moving on to the 16th. This one I honestly think is the most interesting one that we've seen so far as of recording this on the 18th. So this is the 16th one and we can see a ear poking out from the bottom of the screen. We'll get to that one very, very shortly as to who that character is. But like I said, you should know who that is already. But we actually see an endo 01 endoskeleton in the window. As far as I'm aware, we didn't know that they were going to be in the game, but we do know now. I'm not sure if endo 02 will make an appearance, but we definitely know that 01 will. And then we also see an Illuminix poster. Um, I don't really know what to think of that. Maybe we're dealing with another meta game where Illuminix, the company that made special delivery is also in, um, what's it called? A special delivery like we had with FNAF VR where Scott, well, we now know that it wasn't actually Scott, but the games, the FNAF games were canon in the FNAF lore. It's really weird and I don't like to talk about it just because it confuses me so much and I don't want to give off any false information because I honestly don't know what what I'm talking about when it comes to a meta stuff like that with the FNAF franchise. So interesting to take note, Illuminix is in the game or at least in a teaser for the game. On the 17th, we get foxy and baby holding hands. I know I it's it's clearly foxy. You guys should know by now from these teasers that it's foxy. And if you didn't then the 18 literally straight up confirms it. I honestly really really really love foxy's pose in this image. I just I don't know. I just love it so so much. So yeah, we get sans foxy with his glowing blue eye. And then we also get someone in the window staring at foxy. I'm not entirely sure who that is. I think some people are speculating that it was spring trap though. I don't think it has been confirmed. This this teaser was only posted two hours ago. So it's pretty new and not many people have really figured out exactly what's going on in it. Let me take a look at the comments. Some people are saying it's Freddie. Some people are saying it's spring trap. Most people are just talking about sans foxy though. And this is the most up to date full picture of the teaser that we have. Again, this is on the 18th. So anything that's been posted on the 19th and in the future is not going to be on here just because it hasn't happened yet. I do definitely think that we're going to get another character over on the right hand side. It's also going to finish off the ground at the very bottom and then also finish off baby in the middle. Who is going to be on the right? I don't entirely know. It could be Bonnie because we have not seen him could be Freddie because we have not seen him. It could be spring trap because we know he's in the game, but we haven't seen him in this teaser at all yet. It could be an entirely new character. It could be someone that we know of that just isn't in the game as far as we know of who know. It really could be anyone honestly. It feels like custom night all over again where anyone is up for debate. I don't know based off of this teaser as well. You can take a guess on how many more days are going to be in it. Let's see. So it's probably going to be one up top to finish off baby's face and then maybe like two in the middle. Maybe two at the bottom as well and then maybe two at the two or three at the right side as well to finish off the entirety of that image. So that's what maybe like seven ish more days. I don't know, but it is coming out before Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving is on the 28th. So we do have a kind of release date for it. All we know is that it's going to be releasing between now and the 28th, which is in exactly 10 days. So expect it to come out within that time frame. I guess there's really not much to say. It's kind of self explanatory and we've done loads of other theory videos and analysis videos on this in the past from the trailer to the email that Illumix sent out to all other stuff. They've released quite a few things like the Snapchat filter. I think they did they have two trailer? They had like three trailers, which is just incredible for one game. It's really a first for the franchise and I really cannot wait for this AR game because as you guys may or may not have known, Minecraft Earth just released and it is an interesting game. Definitely does give me that Pokemon Go feel vibes. I honestly really hope FNAF AR doesn't give me Pokemon Go vibes just because so many people are aware of Pokemon Go and so many people have played it. That I feel like I really, really want special delivery to do something really unique because that's the thing that FNAF has been known for, you know, going out of the comfort zone, switching up the FNAF algorithm with a sister location FNAF World more recently helped wanted. So I really, really hope they do something unique that nobody has seen before in an AR game. And yeah, I just really can't wait. So mark your calendars before Thanksgiving. Hopefully we get a release date soon, but that's really it for the updates. So thanks everyone for watching and I'll see you all on the flip side. Goodbye.


I feel very happy to be to you all again to discuss or to continue our subject. Now in this class we like to discuss the important component of our topic that is agro advisory. On a long earlier we were discussing on the basic aspects of meteorology followed by in depth discussion on weather forecast, how it was developed and what are the meteorology adapted, whether they are actually useful for the preparation of agro advisory and they are apart. Now we come to the important topic, preparation of agro advisory. Coming to the subject in proper, you can raise question what is agro advisory? Agro means agricultural, advisory means you are recommending something based on what, based on our weather forecast, under the that we have on our hand. The form decision options are making form decision option in response to changing weather or weather forecast that we receive for the subsequent five days. So this is the definition. What are the areas that envelope our form decisions? This is very very important. May be agronomical form management aspects must be because agronomical management is very very important or you can say crop husbandry is very very important. So dirt area is taken care of in the preparation of your agro advisory and the pest and disease management then input management. These are the three things mainly be addressed when we prepare agro advisory. When you prepare your agro advisory, you see past week weather, present day weather forecast and put your knowledge also then only the agro advisory would be very precious and highly useful to our forming community. Here I have given based on our earlier discussion what are the things to be considered. So we have land lot on crop weather interaction, indigenous knowledge, thumb rules. So those things have to be considered meticulously for the preparation of the agro advisory and those are given in the text form here. Next normally I critically analyze any topic by putting many questions why agro advisory is necessary, when it is required and where it is required. These are all some questions will be raised on our topic of discussion. So if you ask a question why agro advisory is required, in the absence of agro advisory what will happen. So the agro advisory is required to reduce crop losses, this is very very important. We cannot control the losses but we can reduce the losses. Suppose the loss estimated loss would be 30% by having the anticipated weather forecast, if you do agro advisory, if you follow agro advisory the loss could be reduced to 20% and the minimum loss would be 10% only. So 20% will be saving aspect, so to reduce the crop losses. To sustain the crop productivity when you reduce the losses you can able to sustain the crop productivity. Finally there must be also an economical benefit, so in this case to increase the input efficiency. When you reduce the input and increase the efficiency means automatically there is economical benefit or economical gain. Then when it is mostly useful, you have already land the three weather codes, normal weather code, flood weather code and drought weather code. Normal weather code does not require any agro advisory, when any deviation occurs from the normal situation whether on the positive side like a flood or on the negative side like your drought. We need agro advisory to reduce your crop production risk and also to sustain your crop productivity where it is required. So monsoon dominant regions like India, like Australia, like Indonesia, so monsoon dominant regions there are different monsoons, Japan monsoon, Burma monsoon, Indian monsoon. So wherever the monsoon is dominant the variability normally occurs. Under this situation this weather forecast and agro advisory are very very important. In other way in terms of physical science I can say that whenever stable atmosphere is there like in the European countries the agro advisory may not provide best advantage. But it gives ample chance for higher profitability and also reduction of the crop protection risk when unstable atmosphere or unstable weather that prevails over a country. This is very very important unstable weather very very important. Then moving to the next one for whom it is required?  Why do you waste your resources? So you may pose question on this. So highly it is for the benefit of the farming community because they are working under field conditions under open conditions. Weather is dominating over their activity. So in this case the weather forecast and agro advisory are very important to farmers. Then form-based industries. Suppose I say an iron rod is fabricated in a factory they kept at the open space. Because of the increase in iron rush the iron rod gets rusted over time may be month may be year or may be chronologically we can say decade or two decades or three decades. So all processing agriculture produce processing industries this will be useful. And one among them is livestock feed. See in the case of livestock if the feeds contain more moisture than the threshold level there is every possibility of occurrence of afloat action to the animals or poultry, diarrhea, dysentery may happen at any time. So the moisture must be kept under control. How? This is the strategy to be adopted by the livestock feed makers. They have to produce within the threshold level of the moisture. If it is more there is the attack from the fungi. So why I say is the year we have studied lot about relative humidity. When RH is more in the year automatically when the feed is prepared or fabricator or made kept under open condition the moisture content of the feed may get increased. For that enough caution must be taken by the industries fellows. Then government for taking decision this is very important. Especially for long range forecast or seasonal climate forecast. When a long range forecast is given or when a seasonal climate forecast is given the government must take necessary action. For example when a forecast on drought is given to the forthcoming season the government should decide what are the crops to be sown during the forthcoming season. What are the technology to be adopted? How many crop ready seeds must be procured? What are the pesticides required? If the government tailors some technology some crop learning then the state may get benefited very well. For taking decision by the government they must have enough policy. This policy is the outcome of discussion from the elected members. And also discussion with higher official members of the department of consent state. Then agricultural marketing this is very important. Because you cannot sell cotton when rainy weather is there. So you have to avoid all those things. So marketing is a tricky or a good strategy to get the benefit from our agricultural produce. So this agro advisory would be highly useful to all fellows that we have mentioned. But agro advisory means what we think it is highly benefit to farmers yes of course. But also it is needed by some other industries also. So with this I would like to close today's class. Thank you very much.


Good morning everyone and thanks so much for joining us today here in the room in sunny Frankfurt and also for the people joining online My name is Irene Himsgerg. I'm heading the climate change center at ECB And I have the pleasure of opening this session and moderating the first part of the whole workshop today Where we will be discussing the insurance protection gap and the policy options to also reduce it and solve it Last week the World Meteorological Organization sent out a warning message That we will likely already breach the 1.5 degrees in the next five years So before 2027 on a temporary basis and with an increased frequency Also the last couple of days we witnessed the heavy rain, catastrophic floods and landslides in Italy It's the worst flood in Italy in 100 years and it leaves thousands of people homeless This also comes a bit later with the question who's gonna pay for the damage that will occur there And how can we solve it and what part of that is insured? So the topic that we are discussing today is just so topical and therefore I'm really pleased that we have a Very good lineup of speakers today with us To discuss this important topic and to also learn from each other and think about solutions How can we solve this insurance protection gap? Before we start please be aware that the event will be recorded and the recording will be shared at the ECB and IOPA websites Now let me move to the program Our first speaker today, and I'm really pleased to welcome him is the vice president of the ECB, Mr. de Gindes They're vice president a warm welcome to you and thank you so much for being here today and Opening providing the opening remarks for these workshops. Well, thank you very much He then good morning to everyone. It's a pleasure to be here today open this workshop and You know be dedicated today to the insurance in GAAP Well, as you know climate change is increasingly threatening our economy and financial system Combating that threat involves first foremost Swift and ambitious mitigation policies to reduce emissions and sustain the transition to a net zero economy The ECB is determined to play its part and contribute within our mandate as we have set out in our climate agenda But meeting the challenge of climate change also requires us to confront the risks from climate-related catastrophes that already exist and that are expected to intensify in the near future So it gives me great pleasure to welcome you to this joint ECB IOPA workshop Our two institutions have maintained an excellent collaboration on the climate insurance protection gap for several years Our joint research has already demonstrated how insurance mitigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of catastrophes How climate change and insurance coverage interact And we recently published a joint discussion paper Setting out a range of policy options to tackle the climate insurance protection gap, which is the focus of this workshop That focus is timely given the macroeconomic impact of recent extreme weather and climate events devastating floods hit northern Italy as Irene has indicated last week and hit parts of Europe in the summer of 2021 the continent-wide drought last year was the worst for 500 years It heavily affected agricultural production Constraint transport and on several major rivers and reduced hydroelectric power generation by nearly a fifth exacerbating the energy crisis Insurance undoubtedly plays a valuable macroeconomic and societal role following catastrophes Payouts from insurers reduce uncertainty and support investment for the construction accelerating the recovery Insurance schemes also incentivize policy holders to reduce risks and enact adaptation measures As climate change causes catastrophic to become more frequent and more severe the value of insurance to society clearly increases Yet the European Union has a substantial insurance protection gap Only a quarter of the losses caused by extreme weather and climate-related events are currently insured and In several countries this share is below 5% Moreover, the climate change is expected to cause this protection gap to widen Lower coverage Good further increase the burden on governments both in terms of macroeconomic risks and fiscal spending to cover and ensure Damages potentially posing risks for that sustainability A widening insurance protection gap may also pose risk for financial stability Physical damage to uninsured assets can reduce collateral values and lead to reprisal of loans and securities for exposed financial institutions Catastrophes can also disrupt supply chains exacerbating the impact on the real economy and on financial institutions balance sheets This affects can lower credit provision a high rate of in high risk areas As will be elaborated further in the opening session the policy options set out in the discussion paper focus on fostering insurance coverage on a range of levels insurers should design their policies to encourage households and firms to reduce risk For example by granting discounts for implementing effective mitigation for adaptation measures Greater use of of catastrophe bonds could support the overall supply of insurance By passing on part of the risk to capital market investors in the same vein Governments could set up public private partnerships and backstops to probably cover the costs that insurance may incur from major disasters Existing EU examples of such partnerships include the consortium de compensación de seguros in Spain and the case central de reassurance in France Finally an EU wide public scheme could complement national level insurance schemes The EU scheme would help ensure sufficient funds are made available to European countries for reconstruction following rarer but larger catastrophes These policy options complement wider financial sector policy initiatives Regarding the banking sector a lack of insurance may prevent some property qualifying as collateral Potentially triggering higher capital needs and weighing on credit supply Targeted macro potential regulations may therefore be needed to enhance the resilience of banks against a persistent protection gap Accelerating the EU's capital markets union and sustainable finance agendas can help mobilize private funding to reduce the climate insurance protection gap Deeper more liquid and more integrated EU capital markets can enlarge the universe of investors in green projects and financial products including catastrophe bonds The aim of our joint discussion paper is to solicit feedback and promote debate on the principles framework and possible policy action set out Today's workshop provides a further forum to exchange ideas I would like to thank the diverse range of excellent panellists and participants who are joining us today We look forward to hearing from your contributions and maintaining an ongoing Dialogue as we pursue further work on this very important topic. Thank you very much for your attention Thank you so much The ginders furnace excellent opening remarks and setting the scene and emphasizing the urgency as well and the impact on financial stability Also on the economy at large and also what we can already maybe think of solutions of solving this And also emphasizing the excellent collaboration we had on this work together with IOPA and this bridge brings me to introducing the next Speaker of today that is chairperson Petra Hickman from IOPA. She will be bringing the insight from IOPA Petra, please the floor is yours Thank you. Thank you Reine and thank you vice president the ginders Thank you to all the ECB colleagues for a warm welcome For hosting this joint ECB IOPA workshop on policy options to reduce the climate insurance protection gap and Thank you, of course to the team in ECB and IOPA that have been working on these policy options and the reports as well as this workshop For a while if I think an interesting result that we really need to discuss It was a pleasure to collaborate Because by working together we can improve an overall understanding of the climate insurance protection gap as well as promote policy options For a more sustainable and resilient future We believe that only discussing and exchanging views with a broad group of stakeholders will help So that includes not only supervisors in central bankers, but also industry, NGOs and academia And that's where you come all in and we hope to identify solutions together to Solutions that are sustainable that are fair But that are also Implementable because I think we really need to also be able to to not just talk but act and it's therefore Heartening to see that so many of you are joining these events both in person as well as online and it is my pleasure to be here with you this morning Now some general words on climate change a lot has been said It's it's a global challenge posing material risks to society and the economy and to this transition That we need to do but we need to do it and we need to do it urgently the consequences of climate change are becoming more and more transparent and Unfortunately, and though I like to give concrete examples when I talk Unfortunately, I am able to every time I talk about this topic give a new example Already the reason flooding in Italy was mentioned But only in the last two weeks I visited Spain really early very hot spring and therefore drought is a concern and After that, of course the weather system that caused trouble in Italy first went over Croatia also there Resulting in tremendous flooding and so in this regard when it comes to these damages and I mean comes to these these Developments that are just happening as we speak I open ECB share a common mission prevention and mitigation of systemic risk and preservation of financial stability I open ECB have therefore been working together on a range of topics including stress testing Climate change is a particular example of a cross-sectoral risks where cooperation between our institutions is essential and our ongoing work on for example, nature related risks Draws from expertise and data on both institutions Moreover, we will also work together closely to respond to the request from the European Commission Join D with the other two ASAS as my new BA as well as the ESRB to do a cross-sectoral analysis Assessing the financial systems resilience to stress in the transition to the EU's 2030 goals for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Moreover at the OPA we have the ambition To have we have a very ambitious sustainable finance strategy And we've always underlined the vital world and insurance companies will play and will have to play in a green transition and mitigating the economic impact of climate change First of all, they're important long-term investors And so they can support the transition to a more sustained one resilient economy through their investments through stewardship But second and here insurance within the financial industry is more unique They are also the risk managers of society and So they are called upon to support consumers to console to support firms to support governments against losses that follow from extreme weather events through their underwriting and This includes also raising awareness in incentivizing climate-related risk prevention and adaptation as well as by swiftly providing the necessary funds when there is an impact However, thirdly, we should not forget that also insurance itself will be impacted by transition risk And by the increase in the risk that we also all see And so therefore I hope also considers it essential to understand the potential impact of climate change on the sector itself And in recent years we have monitored both transition and physical risk and Published several studies on this that you can find on our website aiming to identify material exposures and assessing potential impact on the insurance sector Now when it comes to assess Really impact on on our society. Let's talk about this protection gap And but for giving the importance of the insurance sector It is essential that this sector also continues to offer financial protection against the consequences of net cat risks What we now see the number was already mentioned But let's say it again only one fourth So only 25 percent of net cat losses is insured and that shows a significant protection gap that is already existing Insurability affordability of climate-related risk is becoming a critical concern for insurers for society for policy makers And if no countermeasures are taken it is expected to widen We therefore need to address the insurance protection gap by proposing not only but also finding and implementing solutions And this is an important part of our financial and sustainable finance strategy IOPA's work aims at contributing first of all in improving the risk assessment Risk prevention and adaptation measures then can follow and in this context We have developed a dashboard of insurance protection gaps That is focused on identifying the key drivers and improving risk awareness This dashboard is available on our website and per member stage You can see there had the four major net cat risks and what size they have per member stage Thinking about flooding, drought, earthquakes, etc Moreover, we feel that the access to data and models is essential to do our work But also for industry to do it's work for society to know what they're dealing with And to build prevention measures We therefore believe that open-source data and models on climate-related risk are crucial to improve the transparency and accuracy of climate risk assessment for industry and the supervisory community And to highlight this importance IOPA has developed and released last week the Klimada app to facilitate the use of an open-source catastrophe model A framework that was developed by the University in Surich And then enhanced by IOPA to make it user-friendly and brought to you in an app And again you can find this on our website We're also using that tool ourselves and we will include some results of that tool in our next financial statement Financial stability report Besides clean knowledge of the risks and the gaps and dealing with those through adaptation through mitigation We cannot deny that there will be damages in the future that somehow need to be dealt with And therefore we need to take measures So the measures first of all is looking really at the whole industry and at the whole system It's first of all a supply side question What can we do focusing on pricing and product design? How can we incentivize preventative measures? How can also the knowledge of being risk managers inform decisions on where to build on how to address drought already even before we start building? Second there is the demand side Why do people and businesses not take insurance? What do they need to be able to take insurance? And how can we ensure that that is going to be done more than we see it currently in order to also ensure that the private market is taking its role? And then there is the macro part What can be done at the macro part? How can we increase the capacity of the insurance industry to deal with this risk? But also how can we strengthen society's resilience through public private measures? And this is what we discussed today in the paper And I think Vice President Deguindos clearly listed what steps we are proposing And I think these are very needed steps, sensible steps that make the whole letter of policy options complete So let me conclude Building on this work we will continue to work closely with the ECB colleagues And identify policy options to enhance the insurance of European households And companies against climate related catastrophes While also creating further incentives to actually mitigate to reduce the damages Whereas I would say that even if we really reduce and by mitigation We probably will see an increasing number of claims Moreover, I hope that this is the start of a further discussion And broader discussion on how at an EU level We can also find ways to deal with the risks when they are becoming systemic And when they are also too much for only an insurance sector to deal with So I thank everyone who worked on this report I very much thank the panelists who will speak today I look forward to the discussion But I also very much see it as only a start for more work is to be done Thank you very much Thank you so much, Petra Iopa, thanks so much Vice President Indus for your excellent opening remarks And setting the scene for this workshop we are having today And I think Petra you really set out nicely the role of insurance in the whole spectrum of insurance protection gap Also the cooperation of the ECB and Iopa together On the stress testing on this specific project on nature related risk And also I think how we complement each other's work So what the work that ECB is doing on financial stability fund with stress testing In our own operations of the supervisory side on our macroeconomic models And if I have one message for everyone today I think we all have to pick up our piece of the puzzle for fixing this And working together finding solutions This is I think the key message and discuss what we can do there at that front So with that I want to thank both of you so much for being here And wishing you a very nice day and happy there to invite the next panelists Thank you very much