Thank you very much. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, thank you to Professor Hopper and to Dr. Bilschan Hopper for inviting me and hosting this conference in these beautiful surroundings. I'm very honoured to be here at the Property and Freedom Society, which I've followed for many years, ever since I was an undergraduate student in economics in Berlin. And to be here personally for the first time really has in many ways exceeded my expectations, especially the food. But not exclusively the food. When I picked my topic for this talk, I came up with the provisional title, which was different. It was the Menace of Inflation, Admission and Denial. And I picked that title at a time when the price inflation rates in the eurozone went up sharply and the authorities at the ECB and elsewhere rather desperately tried to reassure the public that this was only transitory. Nothing to worry about. This is transitory. It is because of problems related to the lockdown recession and then the war in Ukraine, it certainly has nothing to do with monetary policy. By now this has changed. The narrative has changed. Basically nobody claims anymore that this is a transitory phenomenon. Everybody admits that the higher inflation rates are here for a while at least. And in fact it is now the official goal of the ECB not to return back to 2% price inflation as soon as possible, but rather to do it smoothly in a gradual process year by year, step by step. We had 8% this year. Next year we might have something like 6% or 7% and 5% and eventually we go back to 2%. Whether this will work out is highly questionable. Only recently the Kiel Institute for the World Economy has published the inflation forecasts for next year and they estimate that inflation will actually be even higher next year than it was this year. So given all that I thought it is not really necessary to talk too much about these public discussions of inflation because we all know that there are many problems related to this. Instead I wanted to look at some more fundamental problems with the official inflation measures and hence the new title, A Critique of Inflation Measurement. And I would like to start this providing some motivation. In fact having listened to Torsten Pollard who criticizes the role of the empirical economist this is very fitting because I want to do a little empirical exercise. So this is the money stock M1 in the Euro area plotted as an index. So the final quarter of 1998 is the base quarter where the index takes the value of 100 and then you can see over time how the money stock M1 has evolved throughout the existence of the Euro. Of course it was introduced in 1999 as an accounting currency and M1 by the way is the cash money in circulation as well as the money on regular bank accounts. So for the lay person that's what we consider to be money or that's the money that is readily available to be spent on goods and services. So it makes sense to look at M1 when we think about inflation. And you can see over a bit more than two decades the money stock M1 has increased by a factor of larger than 6 or compounded by more than 500%. You can calculate the average annual growth rate which would be about 8.5%. In a traditional sense, in a classical sense of the word this would be a measure of inflation. That's the expansion of the money stock at on average 8.5% per year. Of course we, when we talk about inflation in the modern context mean price inflation and it is very instructive to look at how price inflation compares to the evolution of the money stock M1 and here we have the harmonized index of consumer prices which is the conventional measure of inflation in the Euro area. It has grown by comparison on average only by 1.7% per year. So now this in and of itself doesn't mean that the index is wrong or anything although it is wrong. But there are of course other factors that come into play that could explain away some of the excess money production that we see here in the graph. For example, economic growth. To the extent that you have real economic growth the additional money that is created can be absorbed without unit prices of goods and services increasing. However, if you look at economic growth it has been rather weak. I take out here the lockdown recession and if we take out the lockdown recession then per year real GDP in the Euro area has increased by 1.6% per year. So now if you make a back of the envelope calculation you can see that price inflation as measured by the HICP and real economic growth do not correspond at all to the rate at which the money stock has expanded. So the money stock on average increases about 5% points faster than the HICP and real GDP put together. And this is really an explanatory gap where we have to think about where does the excess money go. If it doesn't push up prices if it is not absorbed by real economic growth where does it go? And there are different explanations for that. One typical explanation that economists like to give is, well, there should be a correspondence between the growth rate of the money stock and the growth rate of the HICP and the real GDP only in so far as other things are constant under the catalyst-paribus consumption. But catalyst is almost never paribus and so one thing that could have changed over the time is the demand for money. To the extent that the additional money is simply held in cash balances rather than spent on goods and services, it won't push up prices. So the HICP is not necessarily downward biased if indeed the demand for money has increased to such a large extent, year by year. If you think about it, this is very implausible. You would, if anything, expect the reverse to happen. In an inflationary environment where prices go up and even if only at 2% at a relatively moderate rate you would expect people to reduce their cash balance demand for money and rather spend the money faster. So mainstream economists would call this the velocity. They would argue partly this can be explained by a decrease in velocity. The money circulates at a lower pace in the economy. And at the inception of the euro, the euro system estimated that there would be such a decline in the velocity of about 0.5% per year. If you take that, okay, let's run with the estimate of the euro system, 0.5% does not at all explain away the gap of 5 percentage points that we have seen in the previous slide. And even if you increase that to 1% or 2%, which is again rather implausible, it doesn't explain away the gap. And this brings me to the second possibility and this is of course the hypothesis that I want to stress here in the talk. The HICP is underestimating general price inflation. It is downward biased. And another piece of suggestive evidence can be found in some survey data that is compiled by the European Commission since 2004. They ask people in the euro area about their perceived price inflation, about the inflation perceptions. And if you calculate the median of this perceived inflation, which is plotted here in red, you can see that it is persistently above the official inflation measure. Interestingly, it is on average about 5 percentage points above the officially measured price inflation. Now you might say this is a coincidence. Or is it? But we here at the Property and Freedom Society are very fond of the wisdom of the crowds and so we take this very seriously. If the public says the inflation is really 5 percentage points higher, there might be something to it. Now, and this brings me to the important theoretical problems that are related to the HICP. If we accept that second explanation to play a significant role, then we have to ask, so why is it then that the HICP is underestimating general price inflation? And then if you think about it, there are basically two possibilities. So it might be the case that there is over proportionate price inflation outside of the HICP basket. So the HICP tries to measure consumer prices, prices of consumer goods and services, and it doesn't look at other markets. So it leaves things out in the economy and maybe in these areas in these markets that are left out in the HICP, there is an over proportionate amount of inflation going on. The second possibility is that the HICP is indeed downward biased in what it attempts to measure. It measures consumer prices and it has an in-built downward bias in the construction of the index. And I would argue that there is a very potent mix of both of these factors at play that can show or explain why the HICP is indeed too low, is underestimating general price inflation. So let us look at the first point here. Potentially over proportionate inflation rates outside of the HICP basket. The HICP as I mentioned focuses on consumption goods and services and more precisely it focuses on private consumption and even more precisely on private present consumption. So the only thing that matters for the construction of the HICP are consumption goods and services that are bought by private individuals in the present. So two things are systematically excluded from the calculation of the HICP. The first thing are so-called public goods. We could call that state consumption. Expenditure by the government is excluded. All of the things that the government buys, infrastructure, expenses for education, for health, security and so on, all of that is not included in the HICP. It is true that the HICP has, for example, a sub-index for education and for health. They have a weight of 1% and 5% respectively in the overall index. This is of course from a perspective of the economy as a whole too small a weight because as a society we spend much more on these things because of the government spending that goes on. What the HICP considers is only the private part of expenditure on education and health. So public goods are excluded and there is potentially an area where we have over-proportioned inflation. Surprise, surprise. The second element are future goods. So that means saving is excluded and saving is nothing else but an additional vision for future consumption. As the HICP focuses only on present consumption, any future goods are excluded in the index. So all assets that you can imagine, stocks, real estate, land and so on, gold, bitcoin, are excluded in the index. And this is problematic if you think about the HICP as being a general inflation measure. I believe that it takes also account of some of the future goods that are important for the general or average household. The households are not only consumers in the present but they also save us for the future and they try to provide for future consumption at least to some extent. And so if you want to analyze the general standard of living or things like that, you might think that future goods are something that we should take account of. Now it is indeed the case that in all of these areas, if you take the available data, you find over proportionate rates of price inflation. So here this is data for Germany for the same time period that we looked at before. The average HICP price inflation in Germany was 1.6%. So a bit lower than the Eurozone average. And if we compare that to, for example, stock price inflation as measured by the German stock market index, the DAX, we see that there is a big gap on average. On average stock price inflation was 5.2% per year. And it is of course very volatile. That's a particularity of stocks. But on average, and that's important when we consider this rather long-term perspective, on average the price inflation in stocks is much higher. So now you might argue, okay, this is because of economic growth and the businesses make productivity gains or the expected profits go up and that's why the stocks go up. That's rather a sign of health. And I would hold against that just the observation that for example during the lockdown recession, the DAX has increased by 5% per year. Of course it has gone down initially, but the monetary expansion was so strong that stock prices were pushed up again very quickly. And so it's hard to believe that this is due to productivity gains. So it is primarily driven by monetary inflation and that's why it should be taken account in the measure of price inflation as well. The second element that I would like to show you are real estate prices or residential property prices. In Germany, over the entire period they have increased by 2.6% per year. In the first half of the period, the inflation rate when it comes to real estate was low in Germany. That's a particularity of Germany. If you look into other countries, take France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, of course they have massive amounts of price inflation in real estate markets. In Germany this has only started after the great recession and with the beginning of unconventional monetary policy measures. Since then, if you take the second half of the period, the average rate of inflation in real estate markets is about 4.5% in Germany. So also over proportionately high. And the last element that I want to show to you are public goods. Now the problem with public goods is of course that there are no market prices for public goods so it's very difficult to directly calculate an index, a price index for public goods. But what you can do instead, what you can use as a proxy, are of course the costs of provision. What does it cost to provide public goods? Well it's tax money. The tax revenue of the government is the price the public pays for all the public goods that the government spends the money on. And if we look at the tax revenue in Germany we can see that well here too we have an over proportionate development. The tax revenue has increased at a faster rate than the general price inflation rate. So the tax burden of the average household in Germany has increased over time. Public goods have become more expensive over time. That's in relative terms when you compare that to the general rate of price inflation. And this has not taken account of the quality of public goods. Now so this, all of these empirical facts show that indeed there are blind spots of the HICP that when we would take account of those we would end up with a much higher assessment or estimation of the general rate of price inflation. So part of this gap that I've shown you can be explained away if you were willing to take a broader index of inflation. Now this is independent so far of an inbuilt bias in the HICP. Now that's the part that I want to talk about now. There might be an inbuilt bias in the HICP and that it underestimates the rate of price inflation for consumer goods and services of course. And there are good reasons to believe that. There's an extensive literature on that topic on the potential biases of price indices. It goes back more than 100 years. But an important contribution in the modern context was the work of the Boscon Commission that published a series of papers in the mid-1990s and they found in upward bias in the consumer price index for the United States. Very similar studies were published for other countries for Germany for example and for France and they found the same results. There's an inbuilt upward bias in the consumer price index as they were used at the time. So these findings led to changes in the methods of calculation which I want to explain now. The first source of this supposed upward bias are quality changes in the goods and services included in the basket. So the Boscon Commission argued that the statistics do not sufficiently take account of quality improvements in the product. So if you have a good that becomes more expensive but at the same time for whatever reason there is an increase in the quality of the good then this price increases not necessarily a sign of inflation but rather you should reduce the observed price by the equivalent of the quality improvement measured in money. So you reduce the observed prices and you end up with a lower inflation measure. And this argument, the Boscon Commission argued that about half a percentage point is due to quality changes. This led to a more explicit quality adjustments in the goods included in the HICP. And when you take a look at the website of the German statistical office, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, they list nine types of quality adjustments that they use. The most famous one are the hedonic quality adjustments. Those are quantitative regressions where they estimate the money price or the price equivalent of a quality change and then they deduct that from the observable price. But my favorite are the judgmental quality adjustments. And I found that absolutely outrageous that they list that on their website. They say, and I quote loosely or paraphrase loosely from the website, they say that in cases where the quality change cannot be objectively quantified, it might be up to the expert to just make a judgment of what the money equivalent of the quality improvement is. And so they engage in discretionary price adjustments and do not take the raw data, the raw price data as the observant. The big problem here, or one of the big problems, is that there is no transparency in terms of the data. You cannot find the raw data before quality adjustments. You only have the data after quality adjustments. And even there, you don't find all the data. It's not publicly available. We had a meeting, a colleague of mine and I, we had a meeting with employees of the German Statistical Office and we asked them, okay, can you give us an example of where you correct for a quality improvement? And they were like, sure, yeah, here, computers, mobile phones, all of that, constant improvements, we correct the prices, of course. Okay, wonderful. Can you also give us an example of where you take account of a potential quality deterioration? That silence. They couldn't give us an example. I mean, this is scandalous, right? But when you think about it, this is also not all that surprising. Of course, when you have quality improvements, any business would openly advertise that. Well, yeah, the computer has gotten faster and so on. If there is a quality improvement, you are open about it. You make it public, you advertise it. So it's very visible. It's easier to take account of that. And there are quality deteriorations, which also take place, arguably. But those are hiding. There is an incentive for businessmen to hide the quality deterioration. So they are not as easily observed. And so this whole enterprise of trying to correct for quality adjustments comes with an inbuilt bias towards only taking account of the quality improvements, which reduce the inflation measurement, but leaving out the quality deteriorations in the product, which would increase the inflation measure. The second point are substitution effects. So the economists in the Boskin Commission observed, surprisingly, that people change their consumption behavior over time. There are changes in the consumption pattern. And it so happens that the goods that are replaced have a relatively high rate of price inflation. And the goods that are come in to the actual consumption basket have a relatively low price inflation rate. And so the economists and the statisticians argued, well, we have to adjust the basket over time, right? We have to adjust the weights. If people stop buying the goods with a relatively high price inflation rate and instead buy the goods with a relatively low price inflation rate, then we should adjust the weights. We have to give a higher weight to those goods that they now actually consume, which just so happens to be the goods with a relatively low price inflation rate. And of course, this is exactly what has been done in the U.S. and in Europe as well. The HICP is normally a less-Paris index. On their website, they say it's a less-Paris type index, which is actually more accurate because it's not really a less-Paris index anymore. The less-Paris index works as follows. You take a base year, you fix a basket, and you do not change the basket, and then you observe how the price of that basket evolves over time. That would be your inflation measure. What the statisticians involved in the calculation of the HICP do now is to update the basket every year following the arguments of the Boschian Commission. Now, this is problematic, and this has partly been pointed out almost a hundred years ago by an Austrian economist, Gottfried von Haberler, in his habilitation thesis. This is problematic from a welfare economic point of view because it might not just be a genuine change in preferences that is the cause of the change in consumption pattern, but it might just reflect, these changes in the consumption pattern might just reflect a strategy of avoiding higher costs. People buy those products with lower price inflation rates not because they intrinsically value them more now that preferences have changed, but just because they are cheaper in relative terms. They are more expensive to those other goods that are more expensive. And if that's true, then of course the quality of the overall basket deteriorates because of that. Now, in that way it is linked to quality changes. But the quality changes in the statistics are not made on the level of the overall basket, but only on the level of individual goods. So if the quality of the basket changes, no adjustments are made. So to take an example, instead of buying at the organic fruit store, you go to the cheap chain supermarket where prices have remained relatively low. And in the statistics that reduces the price inflation rate, but of course it also reduces arguably the quality of the products you get. And if you were to correct that, price inflation would be higher. So what I want to argue here is then that the reactions to these initial upward biases in the HICP index, if they existed at all, are very likely to have turned these biases into downward biases and make us now underestimate the general rate of price inflation with the HICP. Okay, so the final question of course might be, well, do we need measures of price inflation? My answer would be not for monetary policy. There's actually a big problem that monetary policy has focused on a nebulous construct like a price inflation index in order to manage their monetary policies and their monetary expansion. In fact, of course, I don't have to tell you that I'm talking to a libertarian audience here. The ideal would be not to have monetary policy at all. But if you have monetary policy, then you would want to, and you want to have a rule so that policy is not discretionary, then you want to have a rule which is pretty much objective that uses variables that are measurable, clearly measurable without much doubt. And the price inflation index certainly does not work, and especially the one that is used today. And it is responsible for, in my opinion, an over expansion of the money stock because the consumer price inflation as measured by the HICP has not reacted much to the tremendous expansion of the money stock that has been going on. Remember, a factor of six over two decades. The actual inflation that was going on outside of the HICP was not actually taken into account, and the official measure gave a pretext for continuing the monetary expansion. And all of the adverse effects of that, of course, amplified. Nonetheless, I would say it is important to think about how we could potentially improve an inflation index. We don't need it for monetary policy, but it still is very informative when you engage in economic history in the Missassian sense, for example, in order to assess the development of real wages, standard of living, and so on. That is still informative, although there are many problems and we cannot objectively measure it. I believe that if we were not only to get rid of monetary policy, but altogether get rid of public statistics and instead privatize the measurement of inflation, we would get much better inflation measures that are much more informative and would give us a much clearer view on what is going on in the economy. And with that, I close, and thank you very much for your attention.


they were your first two Premier League goals for us. Are you looking forward to looking back and watching them all over again? Yeah I haven't seen them in a long time. I know sometimes we sort of maybe before a big game or if we're looking at historical moments of us in a Premier League from time to time they do pop up and it is always nice seeing them but yeah it's always nice to see them. I'm not sure if maybe they fought you know to know what warmer we've won the game and maybe they they took their foot off their gas a bit but we obviously went hell forever starting with Smudge's strike which I think gave us even more belief than we had and we can get back into it and we kept fighting. I think I moved from out wide I think Gaffer put me in the middle actually and yeah the first one the ball broke to me and I got probably a bit lucky with the goal and then even after that you know when they went down the other end right at the end of the game and scored to me my feeling looking back on the game I didn't really feel that the game was over. I thought we had one more chance than us or something can go our way and obviously it turned out the perfect cross from Chas Smudge was positive and I was on the end of it so everything worked out. And it was ahead of it as well and even in the commentary they say it's Tony Gale who says he remembers you at West Down he hasn't seen you scored many headers. Many I think until this day I don't think I've scored one before it or after it. I'm not sure I know I got a few when I was younger but I can't actually remember any in first team action other than that one so I don't know correct me if I'm wrong. Is it just a reaction thing and just trying your best to get it on target? Yeah it was exactly that when first of all it was I remember being like in between two defenders and just before he crossed it I remember thinking if you can just pull it in between these two I've got a chance and as soon as he hit it I saw it come in my way and I just had to just concentrate because as you know my headers are not I'm not any good so I thought let me just concentrate and hit the target and I done it and thankfully it went in. And then after the game what was it like because following on from that we won three in a row which really didn't cement our place in the premiering but it sort of showed that we belong there. Yeah as I say from two different halves the first half against over and you know we was nowhere near it and I think the second half once we sort of took the hand break off and played with a bit more freedom we saw we got the reward from it and then obviously I think we played Chelsea a way after that.  So I think it was just more of a confidence and a belief in those games. And I'm sure Jacob and Alex your your twins they'll be desperate to see them as well or you will make them desperate to see it. Yeah they'll see it now why they'll see it.


There he is. OH! OH SHIT! We're gonna see Kobe! How Momo? How Mepo? Yeah, that's what I call an entrance. Why would he want to meet Luffy, huh? What? Why would he want to see him? OH SHIT Karp's doing the thing? OH GOD So this is how they meet up? 300 episodes later than the live action?  Kowishwa A fist of love Yeah! My father gave me that! G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-GAYBOY! Oh g-gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-gr... WHAAAAT?!  Luhi has a tumor. Monkey D garb. Such a cool name.  Jun, Helmepo. Helmepo has a ponytail. Robin, run. What's Garb doing here? Oh, don't you dare mess with him. He's dangerous. That's normal. That's normal, bro. That's love. That's the fist of love. All the best fathers in history have the fist of love. Garb is so cool. Where's his Scottish accent? Oh, I live there. Dude, I met my grandpa to death.  W parenting. Learn from Garb, you fuckheads.  An ace mentioned. I don't want to be a man. I want to be a pilot. Red hair. Could that be shanks?  Oh, god, I'm having PTSD. Damn, bro. We all got to learn from Garb. Like father, like son, or like grandfather, like grandson.  Oh my god. Yeah, that's what I call an alarm clock. He stops like I'm staying out here.  He's a light beard pirate. Is he? No, he's not. What am I talking about? I'm thinking of Blackbeard. Whoa. You got big mama. You got shanks. Um, um, white beard and, um, or, or is that, is that Kaido or Blackbeard? I don't even know, bro. It looks like my aunt. Like emperors. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Okay, wait, wait, wait. There are countless pirates nowadays that out of all of them. He's ranked in the top four pirates in the same league as Whitebeard. So it's him, Mama Jones, Whitebeard, and who's the fourth one? Yeah. Luffy's on his way to become an emperor of the galaxy. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait, there he is. Is that the person right there on the bottom?  He's doing good. Oh, they're filler characters. I want to see Kobe. There he is, bro. He looks like a man.  Wait a minute. Kobe's doing the same goat, goat meat, and their dairy belongs on the floor. Bro, they put up a fight. They have a long, long, long, long, long way to go, but they put up a fight. Oh, Kukris is a type of bladed weapon. So that was his name. Kukris El Meppo.  He looks like a man.  Who else has pink hair, Luffy? Come on. Who are you? The Kobe I knew was a little pussy. Sergeant Major. Kobe finally looks like he belongs here. How do you not notice El Meppo?  It's Axe Morgan's son, goddamn it. Prepared his wall. Oh, God. This is the greatest episode, bro. Whoa. I heard that you saw your old man.  Did I miss it? Whoa, whoa, whoa. Motherfucker, bro. Tell us. No way. I heard that you- Wait a minute. Wait a minute.  Wait a motherfucking minute. Oh, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Wait, is it that guy? No, I'm thinking of Smoker.  Yeah, he is. They just said it. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.  What's his name going to be? Kupi? Mufi? Shupi? Oh, got Monkey D Dragon.  Monkey D Dragon? He's a revolutionary?   Dragon? Who the fuck- He named his son Dragon and he's a D2. Monkey D Garp? Monkey D Luffy? Monkey D Dragon?  Monkey D Anilope?  Bro, am I stupid? That's Doro's dad, obviously.  It's the guy with the face tat. Yeah, look, look, it's the face tat.  What does that mean? Is that a D? I should have known. Dragon? Like, that kind of dragon? Oh, everybody knows him.  Bro, why are they so stunned? Is he one of the Four Emperors?   He's a dangerous man. Look at Zoro. Everybody knows. I think Zoro knows.  Tell us milk. Oh my god, it's a dragon, the revolutionary.   It's like the rebellion. He's the leader of the rebellion.  Oh, not anymore. Oh, this is awesome, bro.  You should have said it earlier. He casually said that about the... God, it's leading an army to destroy them. Gosh, forget it, guys. Forget it. Forget it. Forget it. Just forget it. Don't think about it.  Oh my god. Okay, nice, nice, nice. Like, so many of this would have been awesome if I didn't know. Like, I knew about Garp's, like, powers, I guess, like, from the live action. I knew he was Grandpa.  Like, I'm shocked. I'm actually shocked. I would have been shocked. Of course it was a lie. That's all they do. What's Luffy gonna do? Oh, they made a deal with the ocean. Yeah, they made a deal with the sea kings. The filler kings.  We need one of those on the sunny.  Navi tapping into her old ways. I love it. Dr. Vega-Punk, a Navy scientist. He's incredible. There's a name drop, Dr. Vega-Punk.  See ya, I'm punk. Uh-huh, and he trained them. That's what they're gonna do in the live action. Nice. Coby could shave. That's insane. He could pistol too. Could he? Coby and Doggie, stop it. You think Coby could do this six king punch? Oh, we get to see Nami wet now. Here we go, fan service. We deserve this. Forget it through water seven saga. Oh, fuck, a whale. Now this is fan service. Oh, god. Um, the, um, the medium line.  The red line. Well, I see by another name. What's it called? What's it called? The New World. Ah, yo, look at, when he said it, everything stopped. The New World.  Now that's a name. Oh, god.  This OSD. So you know it's important. The New World. I got goosebumps too. I wonder what we're gonna see in the New World. Luffy's mom. Yeah, we'll see you in 400 episodes, bro. Become the king of the marines. Oh, that's funny, bro. That's, that's hilarious. Imagine Kobe becomes an emperor. Guys, do they ever fight? No, don't tell me, don't tell me. Luffy gas-fighting him. Next time we meet, I'll no gear for.  Whoa, goaded music. Okay. Zora's like an older brother. I want Kobe to become a pirate.  Look at Nami's beach balls. Sticking his meat in her mouth. Back to the goofiness.  God damn, she got her forehead exposed. Come on, guys, dance.  This is the party of a lifetime, bro. My type of party. Shit. Is Panda Man here? Where's Robin's bathing suit? Dude, look at her. Everything she's been through this arc.  Wait, wait, what?  He came to the party, bro. Join us. He has some Nigu. He could freeze the pool and we could ice skate. Yo, the way he's just standing there, that's sick. He's alive.  Oh, god. And he had to do this? Dude, how could he have it hard, man?  This is why it's in my top three, bro. Shit like this.  That's beautiful, man. Shit.  What is this show? How is this real? He's gone, dude. God. He's already ice skating. He's on his bike, bro. That was a magical scene. Live on. Ohara lives on you. Come on, Robin. Yeah. Don't turn around. Just move forward with your tree or family. There he goes. The clown right back on his bike. This feels like the end, dude. Now, we still got to sail away from Water 7 and never look behind ever again.  I love that song, dude. I love that song so much. It adds so much to the scenes. Fuck. Bro, I heard him. He was like, oh, the elders. The white beard. Right here, Shanks and Edward Newgate. Two of the forms.  So now I know it's Shanks. Thank you. Oh, that's Edward Newgate's breathing. He's on a defibrillator.  This is how you notice the end of an arc. Red beard and white beard.  You have no chance.  There is watermelon, man.  Green horns all to stay back.  What's going on? Were they passing out because they know he's coming? They heard. Those who lack the medal? Oh, okay, okay. So they just can't see him. Look, they pass out because of his aura. He's got an incredibly strong haki. Fuck, it's a haki. He's back. Let's go. Score that guy gave me throbs. Alcohol. Oh, I didn't know. I thought it was apple juice.  His haki? His haki? So his haki is something that knocks people out unconscious. This is awesome. Oh, okay. Here. Look, they're just drinking together, bro. The west balloon from the west side. He looks so cool, man.  Roger Garp. Okay, Goldy Roger Garp and Sen Goku. Sen Goku.  Come on, get down on us. Look, it's Luffy. Buggy.  Yeah, with Luffy's dad. You went Hawkeye. Used to do like legend. What, mihawk? Yeah, that's Hawkeye. Yeah? Okay, good, good.  I gave it to a fish. On a new era? What? The new world? This wasn't a wound from an adventure or one receive. Oh, okay. It's not received from mihawk.  Was one of your men? He's after Blackbeard? Where's Ace? All right, all right, all right.  Blackbeard's on his way. He wants to become an emperor. He's not one of my mind anymore. Please stop Ace. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Shanks wants to go after Blackbeard, but Ace is after him. I can't wait to see Ace again, man. Come on!  Wait, Ace can't even touch Blackbeard?   No, Shanks is like, nah, nah, man. Ace can't beat Blackbeard. So Blackbeard's actually like super strong. Oh, my god.  Remember when y'all did that? You ate out of a giant's cup?  Nah, nah, nah. This is too good to be true.   Is dragon coming? The sky has been split. Yo, oh, eh. Out of here. Go back. Go back immediately. The sky was split. Wait, with the, with the, what was that? Whitebeard? Whitebeard split the sky?  Let's go, let's go. Okay, 300 million. Okay, 300 million. 120 million.  He looks like an animal. I need to see Sanji's reaction. 300. All right. Nice, nice. We're almost half a million. I mean half a million. Nice. There she is. 16. Man, that's a nice picture. Who wants to capture him? 50? What is that, like a dollar? The gang's pet cotton candy lover chopper. Oh, I gotta see Sanji's reaction. 80 million, the devil's child. Oh, that's awesome. What is that? So they drew him? So good, King. Oh, God.  I thought he's gonna be soaked up. Oh, he's joining us. So we have to take him. Yeah, yeah, we gotta take him. This is the reason. Awesome. Look at Sanji. Nah, that's the funniest shit, man. I don't get what he's saying right now. Nah, man. He's so mad. Oh my God. Wait a minute. Nah, nah. What Zoro said, you look like that, you know?  Look at Robin. Robins and moments are done.  An island in the grand line.   Ah, we're gonna see other pirates now, other crews. I want to meet cool pirates. Now we know where he's going. Oh, we're gonna visit fucking, we're gonna visit VV and Kanoa. Yeah, we're gonna see Kaya. Oh, Smoker was an alabaster, my bad.  Wait a minute. Wait a minute.  Wait, wait, wait, wait. In the live action, when they show the scene at the end, whose picture did they put? Did they put Luffy's, right? They don't put Sanji's. They put Luffy's, right? Yeah, okay, okay.   We came back here. We're gonna sell shanks and ace, too. There's 12 people in this town. Oh, this is definitely the entity arc. Oh my God, come by. Oh, the milf. Zoro's mom. He's got such a cute pet, too. That's a W, grandfather. I think she's chopper. I got it. Stop it. Stop, stop, stop.   At least he, wait, wait, a minute.  Wait, he put bangs. Look, he's covering it. He's covering it, man. Look, he's doing, he's pulling it to the front.  Oh, we're definitely gonna see shanks. Dude, did they shrink his forehead? How do I do this? He has to give you the trick. Maybe you have to become a swordsman. We'll never see them again beyond this episode, unless it's the end of an arc. Why does he have it hung up in the room? That's not Lude. You want to see Lude? Type in Nami Lude on Google. Don't do that. Don't do that. I never, I never told you guys to do that. Type in Nami Lude on Google. I would edge on this picture. What? It's a good picture.  She see Bellamere's hand.  Yo, Walter. Not Walter Dalton, my bad. She's gonna be so proud of Chopper's bounty. Some sort. Yeah, it's a mistake. They forgot a zero. Bro, grandma got the dummy. Are we gonna see Machine Gun Pelley? 9-11?  That makes no sense. No sense.  Yeah, three people from the dead. I didn't know that. Baltigo?  Oh, yeah, it's Luffy from Mugiwara. He's gonna smile, isn't he?  This is crazy. The aura. This dude has goosebumps. He's gonna get some air.  Where's Baltigo? Where is that? Like, in Minisibbi? Yeah! The world's most famous criminal.  Oh, my God, dude.   He's number one. Luffy's buh-bye.  Never? I bet it didn't even happen in the anime yet. I'm at the weight.


We'll see how it goes. Well, open it. Well, after this.  Welcome to the First Unitarian Society of Madison. This is a community where of curious seekers gather to explore spiritual, ethical and social issues in an accepting and in nurturing environment. The first generation of universalism supports the freedom of conscience of each individual as together we seek to be a force for good in the world. My name is Frasalyn Woodward. And on behalf of the congregation, I'd like to extend a special welcome to visitors. We're a welcoming congregation.  We trust that today's service will stimulate your mind, touch your heart and stir your spirit. And for a moment we'll have a moment of silence. I invite you to, into contemplation, meditation, prayer as we settle and come fully into this space together. Our in-gathering hymn is hymn number 83, Winds Be Still. Please stand as you are able. If you'd remain standing for the opening words. They were written by Jane Hirschfield. Poetry's work is the clarification and magnification of being. Each time we enter its word-woven and musical invocation, we give ourselves over to a different mode of knowing, to poetry's knowing, and to the increase of existence it brings unlike any other. Now please join me in the transchalice lighting.  Each of us has caused to think with deep gratitude of those who have lighted the flame within us. And please turn to your neighbours and welcome them with friendly greetings. If you be seated, thank you. The Poetry Service has been an intermittent ongoing tradition here at FUS. The role of the Worship Committee is to fill gaps particularly in the summer when staff are not available. This summer has opened more opportunities so it made sense to ask the poets in the congregation to reflect on the inevitable changes life presents, especially as we face major transitions in this community. The Committee received many worthy contributions and we were not able to use all because of time constraints and have chosen those that best reflect the theme. The submissions serendipitously fell into broad categories and in your programme you'll see them gathered together under these headings. It's a risky endeavour to share something as personal as a piece of original poetry with a larger audience so it is with gratitude we welcome those who are willing to do this. For those who are unable to be here, their poems will be read by others but their authorship is acknowledged and appreciated. For most of human existence, poetry has been used to pass stories between generations. Before writing and mass education, poetry was the medium by which a culture's historic and spiritual values were passed on through metaphor. Think Beowulf, the voyages of Odysseus and many Native American tales. The rhythm, structure and rhyme made them easy to remember and thus they travelled across space and time. The poet or bard was often held in a sacred place akin to a shaman in many cultures. Egyptian, Druidic, Norse, Hebrew, Muslim, Hindu and Buddhist to name a few. For people struggling with daily survival, poetic inspiration seemed to challenge unseen forces and provide visions that explained a complicated often painful and confusing world.  It serves to illustrate our common humanity and while we certainly trust that summer's changes will not fall into the category of a fight for survival a service such as this will hopefully serve to strengthen connections and enhance our sense of community. Please join me in him 209 while the children go out for summer fun. Our first group of poets present poems on the theme of Seasons of Growth. The first poem in this group is by Hannah Pinkerton. Hannah could not be with us today but she would like you to know that she wrote this poem to honor her husband, Tad, who is celebrating his 80th birthday today. Happy birthday, Tad. Hannah's poem is titled While Sleeping. Hosta uncoils a new yellow green leaf. Pink cherry bud opens to five white petals. Letters written in distinctive cursive disintegrate into sterile e-mail. Sun speeds winter to summer in scarcely a wrinkle of time. Smooth skin on arms turns into puckers and pleats.  The hayfield west of town holds hundreds of new condos. Legs no longer paddle nor arms paddle. Still the heart remembers clearly. Changes happen all around me though the marrow of time is now. Melting icebergs leave polar bears hungry, stranded or homeless. Tunes change under a new baton. Lovely music continues to rise. While he was sleeping, today's calendar turns my husband into an octogenarian. Good morning. My name is Sanny Oberhauser. I'm going to read a poem which I wrote The Art of Growing. I'll begin with a quote by Marcus Aurelius. All that exists is the seed of what shall be. Gardeners place bare rose bush into soil rich with nutrients. They plant more and more until there is a garden. Each rose reaches for nourishment from the sky. Bushes grow, bushes change. Soon they support one another. The garden is a haven where all may thrive, survive adverse conditions. As petals unfold, they enhance the neighborhood. A congregation has a gardener, a leader who shares wisdom, sets example to encourage growth in individuals and entire congregation. The leader draws inspiration from all members to enhance community, offer protection, reaches beyond to gain support, lend support. Individuals merge into their own world to help it grow. My name is Jeff Glover and the poem I'm going to read that I wrote is entitled Raspberries. The raspberries I did not pick in my little lot. The very ones where canes were thick. The truth is I forgot. They grew and waited just for me, sweet and red and ripe. Hoping someday I would see them, at least I might. But you know how life goes. I was too distracted getting by and feeling woes. Many things protracted. And so my berries went to waste. Like many days I failed to taste. Good morning. Good morning. My name is Sandy Pomponio and I'm going to read a poem that I wrote from my mother who was affectionately known by many as Mamma G.  The blood roots are up, offering cheer this may morning, but tomorrow perhaps they will not. The ferns are unfurling, fiddleheads playing a soft song of spring to the warm accompaniment of a shimmering morning sun. Each year you awaited these suggestions of spring with the anticipation of a child on Christmas morning. Your signs of spring gifted you with endless joy year after year as you lived your well-lived, well-loved life. I venture out in the soft morning light to pick the first offerings of spring, a small tradition created by your beloved, my father. The first small gift is a gathering of simple violets, shy white and periwinkle beauties, their delicate flowers well hidden amidst the due laden grasses. A second offering is one of ferns and the tender, bleeding hearts you planted and carefully nurtured by the home you lived in and loved for more than 50 years. I put the flowers by your chair, empty since November. My heart aches with the longing to once again share so very much, especially the joys of spring. The season of rebirth arrived each year before your time on earth and it will continue to arrive after my time on earth. But for now, the artistry of spring envelops and quiets my heart with the timeless assurance of my mother's love. Our next group of poets reflect on the idea of change of place. My name is Fran Wall. Our spellchecker doesn't think that's a real name. It's spelled R-A-L-L, and it is German. I think we're, I know we're the only Walls here in Madison and it may go a lot wider than that. If you have any kind of a name that doesn't seem quite right to the spellchecker, it'd be a good idea to check on it before you got it printed out or announced to a wide group. The name of my poem is The City of Lost Objects. Tons of papers both written and printed. That last pillow I needed for exercise. Did I put those shoes in the goodwill? Did I use the goodwill for making myself feel helpful or just wanting to feel useful? Where is that spoon? Did I throw it away? Papers, papers, papers. Who cares besides me? Do I care? Great old photos, lost dates, lost people. Who wants them? I need millions of friends.  Their destinations, their dreams. Lost, lost, lost. But still here somehow. Real and unreal. Why do people care so much about bones? I'm Ann Smiley reading for Sparrow Sentie. I'm honored to be asked to read two of her poems today. She'll be here at 11. I asked Sparrow, first of all, how she got the name and that itself is a story of change. So I'm going to read the little anecdote she told me about her name. She says, I was watching Sparrow's at the bird feeder outside my kitchen window. They'd come in flocks or groups. Often one single Sparrow would fly in and join the group or perhaps one Sparrow would fly away from the group. When I went to a personal group for two weeks during a time, Al, her husband, was training as a group leader back in the 70s. Participants were asked to choose a name of a person they wanted to be known as for those two weeks. I chose Sparrow because of the Sparrow's at my bird feeder who came in groups or individually. The two weeks' experience was such for me in the group where I learned I could join a group to be brave enough to be away from the group, to fly away, that I decided to keep that name when I came back to Madison. Okay, on to the poem then that Sparrow submitted here. Leaving a home you've loved. There's something sad in melancholy about leaving a home you've loved and lived in. To have your possessions taken. Knives, forks, your favorite teapot, beds, couches, pictures off the walls, books, children's toys. One by one, packed into boxes and piled into the huge, cavernous moving van, leaving every warm, friendly room of your home bare. The floors, the walls, the ceilings echo and re-echo the emptiness. Suddenly, the van is filled and the driver clicks, the door is shut. You stand there watching as the truck drives off, taking away everything you own, except the memories of living here. Those you keep in your heart is you travel to that new place where the melancholy and sadness transforms into an excitement, anticipation of adventure. As all the boxes are unpacked, their contents put into place in new rooms that will become home again. I'm Robin Chapman, reading the Lawrence Transformations. What is it like shifting frames to step from the riverbank into the river and be carried away? To hop on a beam of light with a slight lift the way the trapeze artist lifts off and out over our heads, or the way we open a book and surrender to words? Time, place, life shifts. The arrow is still in the center of her swinging arc, high above, but now a split-second exchange of movement and trust, and she swings from the wrists of her partner, frame shifted again. Or the way our eyes lift to the sports bar screen, lock into flash flood sweeping cars and people away as we drink our beer while we cheer a tackle in a football game, slowed thump of brain against skull. And that constant trickster, light, links us faster than the speed of thought. We are older than what we see. The halftime score, the Dow Jones feed, the faces of families in Brazil's mudslides searching for family, the houses in Brisbane underwater. The trapeze artist, once aloft, suddenly airborne caught, dropped, bowing now, grounded again on our spinning earth as we cheer. Thank you, Drew. That was beautiful. Our next group of poems is on the theme of personal change. And again, I will read the first poem in the group for March Schweitzer, who was not able to be here today. March's poem is titled, Old and Well Used. Our daughter said, so now you've got scary old lady hair. I told her, do I care? I've earned every darn strand of it. I remember when I was a little girl, thinking how old my godmother looked with her white hair and face furrowed by the sun in years. Only to find out later, she was younger than I am now. When you're young, you worry so much about how things look. Everything must be shiny and new. Why keep that bowl? There's a chip on its lip. That tea towel looks so worn and used and the elastic on that contour sheet sags, disgraceful. As you get older, though, your perspectives change. Appearances are no longer of such consequence and one becomes comfortable with things looking well used, like me and you. And again, I'm honored to read another poem by Sparrow Sentie. This one called, A Matter of Getting Older. My body is older each day. Lungs tell me so when I hurry and find I'm breathless. Slow down, they say. Walk slower. My body is weaker each day. Hands fail me when I open jar lids. Help, they say. Ask for help. My body is fading each day. Eyes dim and blur as I read or knit. Glasses, they say. Use your glasses. My body is stiffer each day. Bones creak, joints crack when I sit or stand. Go easy, they say. Move carefully. My body is tired each day. It tells me so as I dust or sweep. Dust less, it says. Sweep less. My body talks to me a lot these days. Take a nap, it says. Some things change. Some things change and many don't. A million will while others won't. We're wont to say the things that may, the new that do, while old decay. To stay is current as a river. We need to move, also deliver. What will work at least for some. Advancing forward to become. What may seem at first for not. Yet might stay worthy to be sought. Goals that thrive in time and space. The best of them with love and grace. To place ourselves within the range of better days, well worth, their change. The next four poems are about love and change. Sound okay? You already know that my name is Fran Roll R.E.L.L. Love is abstract, but not abstract enough for me. I want a wide white border around it. So I can stay on the border and not get into the subject. The subject is something full of not wide borders. Too much talking about how love goes and wanes. How it changes. How it has degrees. And talking about it with large cups of coffee. Not abstract. Just distance from details about it. I wrote this poem specifically thinking of us, those of us who are facing cognitive decline. It's a prayer in the name of love. Let gratitude flow from our hearts. No denial or withdrawal from the tragedies of the world. Rather embracing compassion. We awaken to the moment present to what is right now. May gratitude give us courage to step into the unknown. Perhaps afraid? Perhaps afraid to engage. Knowing this journey will demand everything we can do and are. Whether we are sick or well, rich or poor, religious or not. May we join together sustained by gratitude. Listening, being, holding each other in love, acceptance, kindness and resolve. My name is Susan Harvey. The name of this poem is Meditation on Love and Death. I wrote this in the fall of 2008, shortly after a dear friend died, long before his time. As I reflect on the unanticipated, unwelcome events that have suddenly become part of my life, I realize with fall, apple, Christmas, what it means to love unconditionally. When death is involved, the previous hesitations, fears, conditions in a relationship dissolve. All that is left is the pureness of caring for another. Another who barely has a functioning body anymore. Certainly not the previous attractive self with eager smile and ready desire to engage. As the body fades, the spirit becomes more apparent. And in the end, all there is left to love is the spirit. My name is Lori Schwartz. And this poem found its new name yesterday during rehearsal. A claim, strange to rearrange. Memory can become an enemy, lost in thought, confusion, distraught. Now, what was it I fought to keep the same? And for what? And whose gain? Control is not ours. For another's powers. For tightening grips is how everything slips away. Away and further each day. Longing, my dear, in memory you appear. The sound of your voice, mysterious sunshine's choice. But who created the sunshine? Who made the love appear? Are we really just dirt to dirt in pine with random moments of cheer? Could change be a gift in a plan, not a drift? It must be, for only God was with me. Facing fear, God's hand becomes clear. Understandings appear. In love, don't veer. See joy in the mirror. Become silent to hear home. A return to our unconditional home. Love, peace, fears cease. Life is on lease. Trust and release. Waves in the ocean mesmerizing magic potion. Illusion of power growing. No. The creator is invisibly blowing. The fall of the wave is not so grave. For love divine, we bravely find no one and nothing left behind. Calm, peace, bliss increase. Trust, no, love will grow. Enjoy in fun, in sun, play and run until our time is done. And then we return to one. This next segment is Time in Relation to Change. I wrote this poem after I received my genome information from the National Geographic Genome Project, to which I'd submitted a DNA sample. I arose out of Africa, wandering, pulled by hunger, a need for shelter and sustenance keeps life moving forward into an unimaginable future. Drought and starvation push relentlessly towards resource and satiety. Others too are pushed and pulled by unseen forces, life clinging to life, hounded by hunger, disease and death. These are different. They more make unfamiliar sounds, have unusual form, but are recognizable. They have eyes, ears, hands and feet. They seek food and shelter. We tentatively make contact, play together, labor together, share skills, tools and resources drawn toward each other for comfort and curiosity. Others withdraw and hide, afraid of the unknown. Those who resist inevitable change disappear into oblivion, hidden by desert sands, their weight archaeologists, who will uncover their bones and artifacts centuries from now. Meet me among wanderers from Mongolia and the steppes of Russia, farmers and herders, settling for a while and moving on when necessity drags a reluctant traveler away from hostility toward food and safety, until finally may be a promised land. Greet me by a river that flows with milk and honey, green and verdant, plenty for all, plump brown-skinned babies play in the mud, laugh by streams, yet there is still not enough for all. Greed, fear, violence, grip the earth. Discover me covered in filth, slave to another. Follow me wrapped by the chains of servitude across rivers, oceans and plains, toward unimagined and unfamiliar places, forced to live away from beloved landscapes. Yet still I survive, urged onward by life itself. Find me searching forests for game and berries to feed the children, to stave off starvation that nips at heels like young wolf puppy. See a community building relationships to find safety with another's presence. Catch a glimpse as I merge into the stream of life, fighting for existence over rivers, through forest thickets, finding refuge in secure caves that eventually transform into houses, villages and towns that replace trees. More terrifying turbulent waters lead to a small green island lifted out of the seas by those same life forces that placed me here. It is now possible to settle down for a breath in the passing eons. Birth, death, toil, rest, sickness, health, leave behind traces of past in skin, bone and sinew. Travel other kinder waves, pulled and pushed by survival. See before you, risen from the roots of many different mothers, another woman. She carries within her a history of ancestral genes, black, yellow, brown, beige and pale skinned forebears. Who is she? Do you judge her by the color of her skin? She has seen all of those. She is more than that. Do you see her for the place she presently holds? There have been many for her skills, for her interests, for her accomplishments, for her failures, for her children, for her relations. See her instead not as a wrinkly old woman but a finely cut diamond cleaved from ancient rock by the acts of time, honed into unique form here for an instant to leave behind small traces in another's hair, skin and bones and maybe spread a glow of kindness, passion and understanding along the way. Excuse me. The name of this poem is Maintaining Hope. I wrote it in December of 2012, shortly after the school shooting at Sandy Hook, Connecticut. Maintaining Hope. How can I respond to the paradox that persists in my mind, the clear presence of human tragedy and waste alongside the fuzzy vision of a nurturing and caring human community? I must maintain the hope that a greater, all-encompassing arc is still bending toward compassion, equality and peace. And that a wiser-knowing and all-creating spiritual energy is present with the human race on its very, very slow evolution toward these qualities of the arc, interrupting destructive mutations and smoothing worthy designs along this long, long path over eons and eons of time. It seems to require a huge, heartful of blind and reckless hope. Today is the debut of our talented new music director, Drew Collins. And thank you, Drew, for your fantastic contribution to this service. Our offering today is for the continuing work of this congregation. A resincere thanks to all of our poets participating in today's service. Thank you. And then we appreciate the many gifts of all those who helped our service this morning. We normally have a greeter, but no one signed up for 9 o'clock today. This seems like a good volunteer opportunity. Our ushers are Bob and Paula Alt. On sound, we have David Briles. Hospitality is being provided by Nancy Koseff and Terry Felton. Our tour guide after this service will be John Powell. If you would like to have a tour of the buildings, meet John over here by the windows after the service. There are no further announcements, but please check the red floors insert in your program for ongoing details of community activities and needs. The cares of the congregation. We join together each week, a community who gathers with joys and sorrows written on our hearts. In this place, we love and are loved. We forgive and are forgiven. We give and we receive in turn. We come together to find strength and common purpose, turning our minds and hearts toward one another, seeking to bring into our circle of concern all who need our love and support. There are two entries in the book of cares for today. The first one says, Our deepest gratitude to Carol Clongland as she steps down from leading our dance fellowship. Carol has brought beauty and inspiration to our congregation through her choreography and creativity. Thank you, Carol. Another writer writes, Grateful for the bounty of our gardens and farmer's markets. Yes, and we are grateful to Larry Johnson for bringing these beautiful flowers this morning. Thank you. Our closing hymn is number 326. Please rise as you are able for the hymn and the benediction. Blessings from what's new.  Advances sent like storms with computers ever faster, upending daily norms with protocols to master in suburbs and city hives, from technology in waves that rearrange your lives in unfamiliar ways, that gobble up your time, seduce you by the hour, like Facebook, yours and mine, that wants us in its power. Blessings be upon you, all who do not fear, the challenges of the new yet endure and persevere. Not just survive but thrive, take wisely what is good, change but then arrive with values understood. Keeping as your goal to thine own self be true and never lose your soul to the latest thing that's new. And now if you'll be seated for the postlude.