But just surreal right now, still trying to take it in. But I'm very, just super excited to be on the NFL team. What does it mean? It means everything. Just to be able to know that still, this was that how on me. They feel like I can be a game changer in their program. And I know they're looking to win. And they felt I was the best pick for them to help them win. And that means everything to me. Yeah, I haven't spoken to Ryan yet. I think he checks me, matter of fact. So I'm looking to still call him, but he's a backyard guy. He's both from South Florida. We grew up there. Both played in the Big 10, and we're both stillers. And I know he has a lot of ice to give me. I can learn a lot from him. So I'm just looking to ask him as my mentor. Yeah, a high energetic guy who brings energy, passion, and attitude to the team. I want to win. And that winning is everything to me. Nah, but I know he's a great player though. I know he played at Wisconsin for some time. I watched his film a couple of times. And I know he's a great player to play next to. No, I've never met him before. I know Coach Tomlin is the players' coach. Just talking to guys that are out there stillers.  And I know he's a players' coach. He's all for his players. And actually meeting them, you know, I know he's that. And I know he goes hard for his players. And he's also a coach that loves to win. And he's looking to win. Yeah, this is something I designed, definitely. Something off the wall that you can't come. You can't go walk in the store and get this. If you want to come get this, you got to go through me first. Yeah, but nah, it's just me, a little taste. I wanted to put on my suit. I didn't want to be a conventional suit and tie guy because, you know, a lot of people come in that and wear that. I wanted to, you know, put my personality into my outfit. And that's what I did. Yeah, I got a website. I just launched a clothing line. My brand is undersized. It's a link in my Instagram if you check that out. It's just a shirt hoodie, you know, with my logo on there. But my logo, you know, stands for, you know, who I am and what I went through to get here. Undersized, not just physically, but, you know, a lot of people put me down through this process and, you know, through high school and through college.  Yeah, just the whole process of just, you know, obviously my height being one, not being big enough, not being strong enough, not being fast enough, not being smart enough, not being able to diagnose plays quick enough, you know, all those things, you know. So, yeah, this is something that's driven behind, you know, my story and has a lot to do with my story what's got me here. What message? I'm coming. Devon Bush is coming and you guys gonna have a lot to watch or, you know, in the for a game, huh? I'm coming, I'm coming, hard-folding the fact, you know. That's why I'm coming. I haven't been there. Troy Palamalu, I'll be my favorite stiller. Yeah, I did, I did. I mean, he's very chill, but I know what he about though when he get on the field. So, nah, but it was cool just to shake his hand and, you know, go through that moment of God, that's, you know, not a thing. And, you know, very highly-toddy guy and it was cool to just hear him say my name. Nah, it was just a brief little handshake. I haven't talked to him or seen him, you know, from this moment.  I don't know, I'll probably give that to that. I'll probably tweet that out one day or something. I'll be a good one. I'll be a good one. That's yours. I haven't spoken to him yet. The whole thing just happened pretty fast. I probably got a couple words in and, but I haven't, you know, sat down and talked to him yet.  My phone is just vibrating right now. I think I got like, like over like a thousand red messages right now. So, I got a low and night ahead of me. Yeah, yeah, definitely, definitely. My best friends is my family. So, you know, they never gonna change up on me. They never gonna treat me any differently. Say it again. Yeah, the big 10, man. I've been playing in the big 10.


God's voice is stable and consistent. Your voice is inconsistent. God will never say one thing and then speak another thing to contradict that. Now, when you and I have our thoughts and emotions flowing through us, well, now we're all over the place. On some days we're up, on other days we're down. On some days we're focused, other days we're distracted. There's no stability.  There's a clear direction. There's a path forward that's made very plain to you. Those who are led by the Spirit have a stability.


Nearly two years after the COVID pandemic began, members of the Choctaw tribe in Mississippi are still figuring out how to cope with their grief as the community witness a death rate per capita three times higher than the state average. COVID-19 has taken a disproportionate toll among Native Americans. As of March 2022, 130 Choctaw on this Mississippi reservation died from the virus. When you lose the first five, you're going to cry, but it got to the point where I got desensitized. The death rate among Choctaws was three times higher than the state average, and Mississippi suffered the worst death rate per capita in the country. Jeremy Bell runs the local bus service and lost family members. I mean, it was just like, you heard about your cousin passing, yeah. Somebody said, what's the worst that you've ever said?  Chronic health issues in the community and underfunding also played a part in the high death rate. The significance of the extent of the suffering is not lost on the tribe's chief, Cyrus Ben. Our ancestors went through a lot of adversity and tragedy, but to know that we are in the lineage of those that were so resilient, that that is what continues to push, that hopefully one day the future generations can look upon us to know that we were strong and resilient in our own rights. Testet number seven, Nisheema Ladania Crosby. In the middle of the pandemic, Bell named Sheema Crosby as winner of the Choctaw Indian Princess pageant. Almost a year on, that celebration is still tinged with grief caused by COVID-19. She lost her grandmother to the virus. A lot of us are so ready to move on, but we haven't even reflected on what we've lost. So I feel like we need to take a step back, learn what we've lost in order to move forward before we can even forget that COVID happened. Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and don't forget to hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.


Video Ideas for Gaming 25 Different Topics for YouTube Gamers Hey guys, this video I will show you about 25 Gaming Video Ideas 1. Tips and Trips Videos to get better at the game 2. Review Game 3. Answer is a game worth playing right now Kinda like if the game is old, it is still worth playing this year 4. Make a montage of your worst plays Everyone is tired of seeing the same killing montage 5. Make a glitches or easter egg video for your game 6. React to a new update or game People love reaction videos 7. Make a series or playlist of a walkthrough You'll have fresh content for a long time 8. Play a different platform like go on console to mobile 9. Livestream for a big event or you just playing the game 10. Talk about the latest esports or community news What are your thoughts on it? 11. Show a tutorial on how to do something in the game or a walkthrough on how to complete a chapter of the game 12. Become a troll in gaming and record it People find it funny, not so much in game though 13. Make a quiz or give more information on the game you're an expert in People want to learn more or just take a fun test 14. Make video ideas on the leaks or the future of the game 15. Compare two games People always want to decide which game to buy Even if they're free, give your opinion on which game is better 16. Rant on how good or bad the game is Even if it's a negative rant, it's pretty entertaining and you'll get more views if people dislike or like your videos 17. Talk about game platforms PC vs console Xbox vs Playstation 18. Talk about settings and graphics of the game What sensitivity do you use What detailed quality 19. Make a gaming room tour Even if you don't have an expensive one 20. Make memes of the game or compilation of memes 21. Talk about unreleased games or new games You'll get a ton of views if you hop on a new trend because a ton of people are searching things up Make a training between video People want to know how others get better at the game so they can too 23. Make a fun challenge video For example, only light challenge or only pistol challenge 24.  Make a YouTube gaming channel trailer So people know what games your channel plays Explain what content you post and how often you upload Thanks for watching and those are my top 25 tips and video ideas Give me some tips on the comments below and let's have a discussion about this


And thank you for your patience, ladies and gentlemen, as well with that transition. And I would also like to say, Ferdinando, well done, and warm congratulations to you on a very, very interesting panel. So in this final panel, ladies and gentlemen, we want to step back and look at the big picture when it comes to international cooperation in the economic realm generally. And as you know, the financial crisis spurred transformation of governance structures and processes not only within Europe, as we discussed in the panel before lunch, but also internationally. The G20, for example, to some degree superseded the G7 and became the platform for coordinating crisis management following the financial crisis. The FSB, Basel III, various aspects of the new regime that came into place after 2008 undeniably have made global capital markets safer and more resilient. The question is, is this system still fit for purpose? We are witnessing a retreat from multilateralism. Where does that leave global economic governance today? What global cooperation arrangements will work in future? Those are our guiding questions for this panel. And we are going to begin in just a moment with an input from Professor Jean-Pisanier Ferry, who holds the Thomas O'Parrot Skiopa chair. Mr. Skiopa has been mentioned many times. In these proceedings so far, you hold that chair at the European University Institute in Florence. You also teach economics at Sciences Po in Paris and at the Herty School here in Berlin. Jean is also the founder and was the director of Brugel, the think tank in Brussels. And he has served in high-level advisory positions in the French government, not least for as commissioner general for policy planning. It's also my great pleasure to welcome Caroline Atkinson. She is a member of the executive board of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. She was President Obama's deputy national security advisor for international economics and has also served in senior positions at the IMF and the US Treasury Department. Great to have you with us, Caroline. And also wonderful to have on this panel Maurice Obstfeld. He is class of 1958 professor of economics and former head of the Department of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. And he formally served at the IMF as economic counselor and director of research and also as a member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors. So I'll ask Jean to please get us started. And then we will plunge right into discussion. Thank you, Melinda. This conference would have been incomplete without a session on international cooperation, not only because of Tomas O'Pallos-Ciopas, because he was in charge. And he really thought what the first thing about the external dimension of the ECB policy, but also because of Ignatio, both in terms of his career at the IMF, at the Italian institution, the ECB, but also in terms of his writings, his research has very much devoted part of his life to international issues. So I think we had to discuss those issues. Now, we want to be very short in this discussion. So let me focus on a few points. I will start from the premise that the demand for international collective action is especially high these days. You can just name the very many fields, climate being perhaps the most prominent, but beyond climate. Many fields in which there is a very strong, very high demand for collective action. At the same time, we're facing an unprecedented accumulation of roadblocks, having to do with populism, having to do with the fact that the institutional architecture is incomplete, having to do with geopolitical considerations in the part of the US and the part of China. And that leaves us with the conundrum. How can we organize collective action in a world that's more fragmented in which the supply, the appetite for collective action is much more limited? So let me start from this question. I think the first point I'd like to make is that we have to recognize the disconnect between the institution we have and the type of interdependence that has developed. So we have strong institution whose mandate was defined at a time where the type of interdependence that existed was quite different. I mean, we had even the Bretton Woods institution, the fund that has evolved considerably, but still had a mandate that was defined in a very different world in terms of the financial integration and the bank even more so. And the WTO also was respect of the global value chain. So we have limited sort of disconnect, and we have the gaps. And at the same time, I think the first assumption is that there is no room for imagining that there will be ambitious new agreements covering the fields in which we have gaps. This was tried, actually. This was tried with the multilateral agreement and investment in the 90s. This was tried with attempts to form an institution for competition. This was tried with the Kyoto Protocol, so it has failed. So we have to start from there. So what can we build on? I think the first thing we have to build on, we can build on, is the fact that existing institutions, even though their mandate may be limited, are there, have accumulated expertise, and that somehow are the social capital of the global economy. So that's where we have accumulated not only expertise, but also a way of interacting, a way of governing those institutions. And that's something the international corporation must build on. So make the best possible use of institutions, even though their formal mandate is limited, they can evolve beyond their formal mandate. Probably the best example is the OECD. The OECD was built as a secretariat of the European Payments Union. It has become the assessor of education in the world over. So it shows that institutions can evolve considerably. So second, I should mention, because that echoes everything we have discussed today, the fact that independent agency with nationally focused mandates, but relatively similar mandates, have a record of cooperating, of interacting. That's fairly impressive. And obviously, I'm speaking here of the central bank. I'm speaking here of the regulator. But let me take an example outside this scope of what we discussed today. Let me take the example of competition authorities. It is remarkable that even today, we have competition authorities being able to exercise extraterritorial power in a still and non-conflictual manner. So we have the European Union blocking mergers in the US. But that's not only the EU. I mean, we know about the EU, but that also the case of various competition authorities of the world over. I'm not sure that that's not fragile. It's probably very fragile. But it's still there. And it shows the potential of this model of cooperation. Then we have a series of relatively soft mechanisms. And we tend, as economists, to point out immediately that soft mechanisms do not solve collective action problem, because we have in minor ways a prisoner's dilemma. And the fact that there is free riding and an incentive to free riding has to be corrected by strong mechanisms. It is not true of all problems. I think we've got to recognize that not all problems of international coordination have an underlying problem that's got to solve a prisoner's dilemma problem. Many problems can be solved just by building trust, by ensuring transparency, by monitoring of what is actually done. And actually, banking regulation is a very interesting example in this regard, because in banking regulation you have standards. Those standards are not monetary. You have a monitoring of the implementation of standards. You have transparency. And somehow this has led to a convergence towards those standards. So it can work without compulsion. Then what do we have? We have clubs. And here I would like to refer to the paper you wrote back in the early 2000s with Alberto Alessina and Federico Etto on clubs and international unions. Looking at how formally we can understand the formation of clubs and what they can deliver. Clubs or coalition of the willing in practice are important. We had an early example of a successful club with a Montreal protocol on CFD, which effectively eliminated CFDs. But we have many other clubs. We have trade clubs. We have clubs in a series of fields. And the question is, how far can we build on that? I mean, the advantage is that it's voluntary corporations, coalition of the willing. The downside, and you pointed that out in this paper, is that clubs can be biased. They can be biased towards the preferences of the early members of the club. And they can be, therefore, too limited because endogenously, they tend to remain too small. So the small club syndrome is a difficulty. So the question is how to solve that. And probably one way of solving that is to ensure that clubs are rooted in general principles. So that general principles are preserved. And clubs are sufficiently rooted in general principles to avoid them turning into very small coalitions. And then finally, I would wish to mention the role of political leadership. And that here I would refer to the paper we actually wrote together in the G20, when after three years we started assessing the effectiveness of the G20. And the G20 has been a combination of good surprise and disappointment. Disappointment because it did not deliver on the early promises of ambitious macro coordination. But in fact, it has delivered a certain degree of political leadership and has actually even served as a sort of orchestrator and arm twister in some circumstances. Look at what had been achieved in the field of taxation, a very difficult field where Europe has been unable to achieve anything. In fact, at the level of the G20, there's pressure by the G20, and the support of the OECD has delivered the end of the bank secrecy and the automatic exchange of information, which is, I think, a meaningful result. And so that shows that this sort of combination can deliver. I think I should stop here. And perhaps if I have more to say, I can say it later in the discussion. Let me just conclude referring again to something that we wrote together, but actually you wrote it about the G20. The paper was named character in search of an author, and that was a reference to Perendello, and the difference to Perendello came obviously from you. And you wrote that as in Perendello's play, but hopefully with less drama and despair, the right characters are there, but the script is not written. And I think judging where we are today, we even further apart, further away from the script being written than we were back then. Thank you very, very much, Jean. And you will indeed get an opportunity to elaborate, in fact, in just a few minutes. But let me first go to Caroline and ask you, you played a strong role in shaping the US response to the international financial crisis you were, for example, President Obama's personal representative at the G8 and G20 summits. We've heard again and again today, and I think we all know there will be another crisis, we just don't know when. My question to you at the outset would be, would cooperation function now or in the near future as constructively as it did then? Well, of course, I will name the elephant in the room, which is the current President, President Trump. I think that it's not obvious that you would get the US leadership that occurred around the previous crisis. And that US leadership, as many of you know, was not only in the US-triggered crisis of 2008-9, but also in the Euro crisis in 2011 through 13, the United States and President Obama personally played an important role in kind of corraling and helping to support European leaders towards resolution or at least taking steps to resolve the Euro crisis. And obviously, we don't know now quite how that would turn out if there were a crisis. I don't think there will be, there should be some wood for me to touch, but I don't expect a crisis in the next couple of years. I do think that there can be political change in the United States. I think there are many, there's a backbone there of people that would be ready to think about leadership because just to, I agree with so much of what Jean put so well about clubs and norms as opposed to rules and their possibilities, but I do think you need leadership. And that is one thing that is lacking globally now, I think we see that obviously in both of my countries, the UK and the US and in some others that partly because of or perhaps contributing to the populist issues that we've talked about, the political leadership that I think you need or one needs, we need as technocrats as well is not evident. And that is I think a real danger of the current moment. May I ask you to just say a word about, may I ask you to just say a word more about this shift of decision-making in de Fora like the G20. Professor Paduaskyopa as I learned doing the research for this panel said that one reason for that shift is that many actors prefer Fora that tend to work in a non-binding format. So moving out of the institutions that are binding and rules-based into these kind of institutions. Would you say that all in all, the development or the shift shows us that the international system of governments is adaptable and will change as needed? Or would you say in fact it is growing and more and more vaguer, fuzzier and less capable of handling the big challenges? I think that it's adaptable and flexible. I want to sort of stay with that optimism. I work for a long time in the IMF, which to many people looks like a very sort of hide-bound rules-based institution. But in fact, always relied on a tremendous amount of flexibility and it became less effective the more that unfortunately was usually led by the United States, but the more that rules were put on its ability to act in crisis. Part of the shift is because certainly in the United States it's very hard to get treaties and so on approved when I was involved in climate discussions. I kept saying to Europeans, we want the same as you, but don't insist on a treaty because then we will have to oppose it in the United States. It won't happen, but we can manage without that, which I think was the case with the Paris Accord. But part of it comes because the world is just more complex and there are more players. And the G20, which began as the G22 among central banks and finance ministers came out of the Asian crisis when I was in the US Treasury at that time and we realized that we didn't know who to get in touch with. We didn't have easy relationships with the Indonesians, the Koreans, the Thais in the same way that we in the United States did with Europe and neither did the IMF. The IMF, although it covered in the World Bank, although every country, important country was a member, the constituency formula meant that many national governments didn't really feel that connection that they did in the G22. None of these things is perfect because you always want to have a small group so that you can get agreement. If you have a small group, you're leaving out a lot of people, so a lot of countries. So you have to have a kind of complex, multi-layered system, but with will, with good will and leadership, that can solve problems. I just want to tick off a few issues other than the one that could really ticking off cyber, Ebola management, trade, climate, all of those issues came up in the G20. None of them is part of the G20 mandate. Okay, great. Thank you very much. Maurice Upstfeld, in your final message as chief economist at the IMF, you apparently departed from what would have normally been a final message as you released your last report and instead gave a rather passionate statement about the need for more inclusive policies, saying that if we do not move to greater inclusion and really address the problem of inequality, multilateralism will not survive. Strong words. The IMF, the World Bank are now focusing to a much greater extent on the issue of inequality, but the question for me would be whether they have the leverage to drive really broad and effective change in this area. Well, I think the question of where the World Bank will come out on multilateralism generally is very much in question under its upcoming new management and we'll see how that works out. I wasn't even there yet, but. You know, I think in that sort of valedictory piece, I was bemoaning the difficulties that policymakers and technocrats like us have in communicating to what Tim Geithner would call normal people, what are the benefits of multilateralism? And I think we've actually done a pretty terrible job of it. Partly by the examples we pick, but also in some of the issues that we don't tackle. And so I think one way to get people behind it is to really convince them that these benefits from coordination are not simply very abstract financial stability benefits that benefit people in finance and bankers, but that can actually increase prosperity at their level. And for that, we really need a policy framework that is inclusive where people feel they gain from these policies generally, but also multilateral measures. And so I think it's a major communications challenge. You know, we have had like huge successes that are easy to understand in terms of coordination. You know, on health, eradicating smallpox. Easy to understand. Now, Caroline mentioned the challenge of leadership. I think one also has to bring up the challenge of educating people about facts. You know, when I look at the US and see the anti-vaccination movement and this idea that, you know, somehow vaccination, which is a public good, is bad for you based on zero facts. So I worry about even examples like the one I gave. Corruption we touched on in the last session. This is a global problem. Money laundering is a global problem. It's been impossible to tackle effectively, even at the European level. But it's something that I think normal people could understand and get behind. Yet, you know, we don't talk about it because we don't do it. But this is an area where I think we could sell multilateralism and also help address some of the perceptions about inequality. Inequality I think is very much at the root of a lot of the trust issues that we've been talking about today. Certainly it was mentioned in the first discussion around Mr. Tabalini's results and in the last discussion as well. So let me ask you this. Of the processes and structures that Jean set up that he talked about, what do you think are the most effective means of addressing global inequality? Because clearly it is a global challenge. Well, you know, I think we should interpret inequality very broadly, not just as income or wealth inequality, but inequality of opportunity, inequality of cultural access, inequality of media access. They're all sorts of, and these are actually quite correlated, but also lead to the issue of identity and culture and resentment that we've seen play a big role in the sort of populist uprising. You know, I think there are specific international coordination issues that are very important here. I think generally in terms of supporting economies worldwide, you know, the fund, the bank, the Bretton Woods Institution is very important, but I think the one thing that I would view is very central and that hasn't really been effectively addressed is international tax competition. Just this idea which, you know, I think Danny Roderick started pushing it over 20 years ago, but I think it's important that with capital being footloose, it's much harder to tax. And there's an incentive to raise to the bottom that leaves the burden of providing social services and social safety nets on labor taxation. And I think this has been pretty corrosive. Now, again, how do you solve the problem? You really need international recognition, international negotiation. We've made some progress in areas like BEPS, the OECD initiative to make things somewhat better, but this is something that also could command a lot of public support. Thank you very much. So Jean, I actually wanted to ask you if you would apply some of what you said, including using coalitions of the willing clubs to move forward to exactly that issue of money laundering, which of course is so intimately linked to inequality. No, I think on inequality, I mean, I would say, I agree with you. This tax dimension is major, and it's not only major actually because of inequality, it's also major because it's the fact that there is tax avoidance on a massive scale, undermines the consent to being taxed. Because why would you accept to be taxed yourself if you see that some big corporation doesn't pay significant tax bill? And I think that's even a bigger threat because that is sort of the basic social contract that is undermined by that. So I think that's major. So how to tackle that? Well, as I said for personal taxation, where we had this bank secrecy issue, it requires some interesting. I mean, it's not going to emerge from consensus. There are interests, and there are jurisdictions that have a very strong interest, not to speak obviously of the companies themselves, have a very strong interest in keeping things that they are. So the good news is that paradoxically, the Trump administration may facilitate things because it has lower tax rates, so it needs to broaden the tax base, and because it has this rough justice type of approach to global taxation on a national basis, which sort of sets in motion things and forces others to act. If I can add a word on something that was not yet mentioned, this is the issue of legitimacy of institutions. I think that's major in the present times because what we're seeing is a challenge to the view that those institutions belong to the global community. China doesn't feel that those institutions really belong to it, and many emerging countries feel Europe is over-represented, that the rules that are embedded in the code, et cetera, represent more a certain vision and a certain interest. So I think the risk, if we don't act on that, is that we're going to undermine these three institutions. So what I said, what remains as a sort of basic structure we have to rely on. This requires changing the governance, I mean, continuing the rebalancing, and this requires accepting to challenge some of the views, which may too much reflect the interest and the prejudices of advanced countries. Actually, that's what the fund did with this issue of capital flows, where the fund moved from being the advocate of capital financial accountability liberalization to a much more balanced view, and I think that was very welcome. Let us go directly on to exactly that issue and talk a little bit about both the rise of China and the retreat of the U.S. from multilateralism. Caroline, Chinese U.S. tensions, of course, are not only a product or an attribute of the current U.S. administration. During your tenure as Deputy National Security Advisor, the U.S. staunchly opposed the newly formed Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, and of course that creation of that bank was, to some degree, associated with the fact that reform and adaptation in the IMF had been blocked for so long. So does the AIIB track record that we have now seen, it hasn't been fully operational long, but the track record so far looks fairly moderate, it's doing co-financing with the World Bank, with the Asian Development Bank, it's also gotten stellar credit ratings so far, does that assuage concerns that people in Washington had at that time about what the AIIB would represent? Yeah, that's a great question. I think that the AIIB's track record has been vastly better than it might have been because of the inclusion of many European members and so on, and also because of the conditions that were agreed between President Obama and President Xi when there was a meeting, a bilateral meeting in the fall of 2015 when the two presidents agreed that the AIIB would follow the procurement rules and follow the rules and be part of the international system. That was sort of forced by the United States rather than being forced on China or the agreement came at that level, not at the level of the Europeans. But at the same time, as we've seen a lot in the press recently, China has sort of said, well, okay, the AIIB is going to be this kind of pretty good place and we're really pushing the Belt and Road Initiative and the Belt and Road Initiative has obviously been the controversy here about whether Italy will join and how the eastern central parts of Europe will work with China as opposed to other parts of Europe. And I think there is a real question for all of us in the United States and in Europe about how to manage in a positive way the rise of China. One, I'll just make two quick points about that. In the United States now, there's a lot of sort of revisionism, not actually in the direction that you've pointed to but more in the opposite direction. Criticism of the Obama and Bush and Clinton administrations for being too friendly to China, too willing to allow China to grow its exports and become a member and a free rider on the system. And that's definitely the current push in the United States. One thing that worries me about that is that the intelligence community and the Departments of Defense and all the rest of it, I saw this up close, never believed in supporting a strong China. I mean, basically they always were nervous, I think probably in every country, certainly in the United States, about China's rise. And that was tempered by a belief on the part of the economists and the politicians of foreign policy that actually one should embrace China and we could have shared interests in a strong and prosperous global economy. That sort of tempering has gone away with the current administration, but as we see and I think that makes it a much, it puts us at a riskier moment. The other thing is that we do need to bear in mind that you always have, and as everybody here knows, you have to work with what makes sense. A diplomacy is about figuring out where the other person's interests overlap with yours and then finding that sweet spot. And it doesn't work by just pressure. You have to persuade people that it's in their interests to take measures against climate or whatever it may be. And I think these informal settings can promote that because it's embarrassing for a one leader, although unfortunately Trump did this, but it's typically embarrassing for one leader to refuse to join a consensus that is shared by many others. It's difficult for Modi to hold out on a small trade agreement if everybody else around the table is agreeing with it on trade facilitation, for example, or Brazil and Turkey on climate. So I think that, but it takes a lot of work. And I think with one last point, Jean mentioned about Europe's overrepresentation, I think that is a real problem. I don't really know how to address it because the United States share of the global economy actually hasn't changed that much in the last 20 or 30 years. One would think people talk about China coming up and the United States going down. No, the United States has stayed there. China's gone up and Europe and the rest of the world have got their share of the global economy. And I don't know how Europe deals with that. Marie Sobsfeld, Caroline has just talked about this increasing view of China in the U.S. as a rival and an adversarial kind of view. And certainly that is the message that people in Europe believe they're being given on Huawei, for example, but in other areas as well. Essentially a lot of pressure, you're with us, you're with them. And Europe nonetheless continues to say, although its latest strategy does also define China as a strategic rival. Nonetheless, there's a lot of talk here about Europe trying to find a middle way. Do you think there is a middle way out there and a role for Europe? Or is this a clash of titans and Europe is kind of beside the point? Well, I think there is a middle way. Part of the difficulty of finding that is that Europe has its own vulnerability to U.S. policies. A lot of vulnerabilities to somewhat capricious U.S. policies, whether it's about trade and autos or whether it's defense. And so there may be pressure on them and they may feel pressure to be on the U.S. side. Now, you can think of ways in which that could actually be productive. If the U.S. and Europe would confront China in terms of reforming the WTO structure and enhancing mechanisms to monitor compliance in a cooperative way, I think they could achieve some results. But I fear that the use of coercion is gonna just lead to a lot of instability without actually serving the U.S.'s purposes. And looking at China, they have their own issues. I mean, China is becoming a more closed economy. It's becoming more politically closed. It's becoming more authoritarian. There's an increasing concentration of economic resources in a very inefficient state sector and of economic power in the center. And so at some level maybe that allows deals to be made, but I think it's actually not a really good development for certainly not the future of that country, but also for the ability of China to actually make some of the concessions that the U.S. is asking of it and that Europe would also like to see. Would you say nonetheless, sorry, I think it doesn't work when I turn in this. I'll just turn more. Would you say that nonetheless, there needs to be an ongoing rebalancing of international institutions to try to bring China more into the fold, whatever that might mean. And perhaps coupled with that, the very specific question, where the World Bank actually to follow what apparently Mr. Malpass is thinking about doing and saying, we're not going to be lending to China anymore. Would you view that as deleterious for future governance? Well, on that particular score, China is not where other East Asian countries are that have grown very quickly, but it is a middle income country. There's a case to be made that there could be some rebalancing of flows to and flows from China and it's supportive of the international institutions which would also signal in a way that its leaders might find prestigious. You know, it's growing stature. But for China, I think there's always been an issue of carrots and sticks. And those sticks can be sort of soft power sticks. So one of the things that Caroline and I both worked on, you would have much higher level in the Obama administration was the TPP. That was a great exercise in actually containing China through soft power and also supporting regional economies that might feel bullied by China. And this is something that, I think if it had been thought about for more than three seconds, it would have been realized by the incoming Trump administration that this is something actually worth pursuing, but it was not thought about. So for China, I think you do need to bring them into the system. You need to make them even more important stakeholders. But you also have to be very firm about the rules and about the sort of sticks and about monitoring because it's a non-transparent system. It is inherently non-transparent and that's not gonna change anytime soon. Interestingly enough, TPP would have had mechanisms for China to join had it decided to play by the rules. But it would have had to subscribe to the rules of the system that were predetermined. Theoretically an influence lever that could have been used. Jean Pisaniferi, Italy and BRI, what do you make of that? I think we've got in Europe to wake up to a new reality which is that we tended to separate economic relationship from geopolitical relations and so we had a very simple-minded, very economist view of the world which is not the case of the US, which is not the case of China and we have to wake up to a reality which is that China has a view of the world and the US has a view of the world in which they can leverage economic instrument for geopolitical reasons and so on. We have to respond to that. Now, and so there's a concern that China is well now approaching or discussing with Italy and there's a visit of President Xi Jinping in Rome after actually also having entered into agreement for privatization in Greece or in Portugal that have led those countries to oppose the control of direct investment that some other European countries wanted to put forward. So it's a new reality we have to adjust to. The big difference I think with the US is that for Europe, it's a matter of avoiding to be dominated by this sort of more geopolitical approach of international relations. It's not a matter of limiting, putting a break on the development of China or any other country for reasons of rivalry which is in fact the major case of the US. And in the US in the recent amendment to the investment control regulation, there is one of the reason mentioned is to maintain technological leadership which means that not only you want to object to investment that are politically motivated and that we should do the same but you want to restrict the sort of the flow of knowledge and technology to the rest of the world. And I think that's a big mistake. And the US wishes to do this without education, more educational investments of its own. It's restricting others to keep, it's keeping others behind instead of forging ahead. Right. Caroline, you mentioned trade. I want to just two quick questions and then we will open for just one or two audience questions. You mentioned trade. Certainly some of my colleagues in the media referred to the first big package of tariffs against China as the day or a nail in the coffin of the WTO. So double question essentially. Do you think that the WTO can come back? Can it become a vital governance institution despite Trump's and his administration's clear disregard for it? Or do you think we will see some sort of network of bilateral, regional agreements and to what degree can they provide an alternative? I think that the WTO, nobody's left the WTO yet and I think that's quite important. So I think that they have a lot of very good technicians and so on there. But blocking adjudication procedures by not appointing judges essentially undercuts the entire institution. Right, but it's, you asked can it come back? I'm not claiming that it's operating normally but I think that it could come back. However, but I think the longer term threat to the WTO which does require it to move and I am kind of institutionally and because of all my experience much more on the side of adaptability, flexibility, norms than rules, the longer term problem is really that there hasn't been an agreement between developing countries and developed countries about everybody working together. That was a critical issue that had to be got over in the climate space for Paris and it hasn't been addressed in the WTO and you cannot have the advanced economies in here. I think Europe and the United States feel are in the same position with special agreements, arrangements for developing countries that are big traders and big economies like China including like Indonesia, Brazil and so on. So China always wants to say we're a developing country, we're a poor country, we need to be treated that way and that's a problem for those institutions but it's not an insoluble one over time it can be addressed. In the meantime I think the WTO can be a place where countries come together to make specific pacts but not for a couple of years. Thank you. As we were speaking just now about US pressure vis-a-vis Europe, I was thinking Moise Upsfeld about the fact that I've heard at least some people in Germany say, well this whole Huawei thing it's actually only because the US wants to keep others down. In other words they see it as part of Trump's overall mercantilist strategy and that to me is testimony to what has happened to trust even just in the two and a half years of his presidency. So my last question before we take an audience question would be whether you think the effects of Trumpism are likely to outlast his presidency and do ongoing damage to global governance in the sense that trust is the currency of that system? Yeah well that sort of comes back to the initial question about the G20 that the level of trust is very low and since the Trump administration has come in every single G20 meeting has been the US against almost everyone else on certain key issues such as is the US, is the IMF the center of the global financial safety net. The US comes in, it red lines the communique and says red lines that out, 19 countries put it back in and it really and repeatedly keeps trying to do this. So it has led to people sort of just dreading these meetings and wondering if a communique will actually be agreed on. I think in some areas it's gonna be very hard to put the genie back in the bottle. If I look at the US, again when we were working on TPP we were basically the opposition was actually most of the Democratic party and there were a few Democrats in Congress who were for it. Republicans were on board. Now there seems to be an inter-party consensus against trade in the US. How is that gonna affect the stability of our US position in the WTO going forward? I don't know and I think that also will infect other areas. So I worry that that Trump isn't is gonna possibly have a very long tail. To what degree do you think that what we're witnessing and this is a question pretty much for this particular group of people in this room, what we're witnessing could hasten the end of the dollar centric order? Using exploiting the dollar's position for political ends to enforce sanctions, whatever cut countries off from US payments, I think that's the fastest way to hasten the dollar's demise as an international currency. Russia and China have talked about setting up alternative networks but short of that, and provided the US remains a country where basically the rule of law prevails, which we can't take anything for granted. The dollar is gonna be very hard to dislodge. The euro is not in a position to displace it. The RMB is certainly not. There's nowhere else to go. So its position is gonna be hard to break but with enough bad will, it could happen. That's not the kind of statement that moderators like to end panels on but maybe the audience will help us get back to a glass half full kind of. Yes, please. I wanted to ask your opinion on the G20 agenda. It's my impression that it's becoming too vague, too large, too full of topics and away from the central and crucial issues that are really systemic and require global action like finance, trade, climate. I mean, they are inserting the future of work, the role of women, Africa, all very important issues. But at the end, these issues allow the final communique to become extremely vague and trying to avoid the basic issue. So I wanted to know if you think that there is some hope that this, at least they can create a sort of a hierarchy of these topics. There are some on which there is a certain type of work and the other words is different one. Thank you. Do we have another question in the audience? Okay. People have their eye on the clock, no doubt. Iniasio, please. What do you think of the main form of perhaps the only form of international cooperation that at the moment seems to be active in Europe? The cooperation of governments aimed at undermining the commission in general and the competition rules of the commission in particular. What do you think of this international cooperation? Well, Jean, would you like to start with an answer to both of those? I just wanted to avoid this question. Well, the two sides. I mean, there specifically is a question of the competition rules. And I think it's, we shouldn't, we shouldn't, I mean, the focus on the consumer that's embedded in the competition rule is right. And competition is about consumer welfare. Now, you can discuss whether to take more on board the stability of markets. You can discuss where the time horizon that needs to be adopted, what are the pertinent markets, but all those are told questions that are entirely internal, internal to the competition issue. Now, there's another issue which is, do we want at some point for some issue and that was certainly not the case for the railways to consider that for security reasons. We want to allow a situation where on competition ground we would block a certain merger, but for national security reason we should do otherwise. And that's not something that exists currently in European law. And I think that should be introduced. But that should be introduced, I think, best within the commission, inside the commission. So we should have the high representative being able to say, I'm sorry, competition commissioners said this merger should be blocked for security reason. I object and I ask the commission to consider the whole of the issue. But the bad thing is to compromise to start fudging the competition rules for reasons that have nothing to do with competition. G20 agenda too broad, you can take it or Caroline or whoever feels. On the G20, everybody, all the representatives and Sherpas begin every year by saying we need to have very focused communique, we mustn't have very many issues on it, et cetera, et cetera. I ended up feeling differently from that because I discovered that it's possible to deal with some quite important issues that require action in governance, not at the level of leaders, but leaders saying something, having a half a phrase or a sentence in a communique can set others working. I mentioned Ebola, I mentioned cyber crime. These are other things that, as well as the issues that you raised in trade and climate, which originally were rejected from the agenda as being not to do with the central questions. So I think that if you, and the Japanese saying this year that they want to deal with the issue or they want to mention the question of marine plastics, well, now that's a long way from imbalances, global imbalances, but it's also a global issue that probably it's quite good if people, if a message comes from leaders to the various people, you then need to have the follow-up, you need to have the leadership and the push that goes into the systems of government in these various countries. So I'm okay with a pretty broad agenda provided there are kind of action items and goals that go with it. And that it's, right now, of course, the G20, as Morris said, is in this difficult problem. I know we're short of time. I just wanted to make two quick points. One is about, or maybe three, one is about the BIS, which we haven't mentioned, and I don't know, maybe it's not polite to mention the BIS and the ECB, but I was very impressed with the way that the BIS went over a period of years from this very narrow, etiolated environment of G10 central banks to broadening, having meetings outside the G10, having a branch in Singapore, I don't know, Mexico or whatever, and Andrew Crockett, I think, was the main one managing that expansion, and I think that was a very important way, and it wasn't done with rules and treaty changes and all the rest of it. Second thing on Morris's point about inclusiveness, which I do think is really important for all of us to think about, and there is a role, as Ignacio knows, for central banks and regulators, and then lastly, I just want to say thanks very much to Ignacio for reaching out to me. We haven't seen each other for ages, but we worked together 25 years ago or more when he was in the Bank of Italy, and I was at the IMF, so thank you very much for that, and congratulations for all your work. One last sense. I just wanted to react to the point, made by Marie, about the dollar and the euro. I think we were used to consider that the dollar was somehow sort of publicly good with some US characteristics, obviously. Had this notion of the exorbitant privilege and the exorbitant duties, somehow there was a balance, and that was the attitude, and the attitude in Europe was that the international role of the euro, that was nice to mention it, but there was no policy with this, the international role of the euro. The policy was complete neutrality. Now, I think it's being reconsidered. You know, the consequences of the US using its currency in a different way, that we've got to reconsider, and there are major obstacles to a wider international role of the euro, having to do with what is a safe asset, having to do with, to what extent are we able to provide liquidity line to those using the euro outside the euro area, but I think this conversation has started, and that's a consequence of the US behavior. Yeah, I mean just two other points on that question. You know, one of the important things the US did during the financial crisis, which is to some degree endured, it was to extend swap lines, dollar swap lines, and this has been very much in the US interest because it has promoted, or the countries to use the dollar as a funding currency, it has maintained that system. And I think in the current political climate in the US, that's not a foregone conclusion that these would be available, particularly to countries outside the big six central banks. The other way in which the US couldn't undermine the dollar's role is by its leaders continuing to say they want a weak dollar. You know, if you go back to the late 80s and the period of late 70s and the period of dollar weakness that preceded Paul Volcker coming in as Fed Chairman, that is when there was a lot of talk about the substitution account about getting rid of the dollar as a reserve currency, replacing it with SDRs, and that ultimately did not happen in part because the dollar strengthened. Now if President Trump keeps bashing the Fed, keeps talking down the dollar, if markets react to that, it could be a serious factor in discouraging dollar use. Thank you very, very much. Let's give this panel a very warm round of applause. And that brings us to the end of our colloquium. So let me just say thank you very much to all of the technicians. Thank you to the bank for making this possible, but most especially, of course. Thank you, Iñácio, for inviting all of us to participate in these truly insightful, very, very interesting discussions. Shall we briefly stand and all clap for Iñácio? Yes. We wish you well.


Welcome back for my third module in our demo and looking at different methods for predicting who would win individual head-to-head baseball games. So far we've looked at the ELO based model from the 538 website and found that that does actually a pretty good job, perhaps a little bit too conservative in assigning probabilities to the favorites. We've also looked at the win probability model from Bill James that looked at the average number of games each team won to then come up with a probability that one team will beat the other team. What we found with that model was that we really need to know the true winning average of each team at the end of that season to predict the games within that season, which is a really silly requirement because we don't know the final record. If we knew the final record we would know who won that game. We also tried looking at the record from the end of the previous season that didn't do so hot, and then we looked at the record up to that game and found that that didn't do so hot either. So far the 538 model is looking pretty good and like I said it's a little bit conservative. So the third model that I want to look at today with you is the betting line. The betting line is a reflection of where people think or who people think is the favorite to win a game. People bet on all sorts of things. People bet on baseball for better or worse. We might even think about betting on baseball based on what we come up with our results from these analyses. But what they reflect in a way is what we might call the wisdom of the crowd, that people are putting money where their brain is or where their heart is or where their mouth is. So you might think that the Cubs are the best team in the world, but how much are you willing to bet on that? And so for a single game if you say how much are you willing to bet on team A versus team B, that gets reflected in the betting line. And what people have found in a lot of different applications is that when we look at the wisdom of the crowd, the crowd actually does a pretty good job in aggregate of predicting certain estimators. So for example, people have gone to state fairs and they've said, hey, looking at this cow, can you tell us what you think the weight of the cow is? So individuals, individual estimates might be all over the place, but when you look at the average of those estimates, they tend to hone in right on the right weight. People have done this for a lot of different things, not just the weight of a cow. And so the question that I have for today is when we look at the wisdom of the crowd for the betting line, how does that compare to the actual probabilities, the actual outcomes of the games people are betting on? And so that's what we're going to do today. We're going to take the analysis we've done so far and we're going to integrate in the probability calculated from the betting lines. So a couple things we need to figure out is we need to get a source of data for the betting line and we need to know how to convert that betting line into an actual probability. This information was not included in the 538 website and I'm finding that it's actually kind of hard to find. And so this is going to force us to learn a little bit about how we can use our to parse HTML files to extract information we want. We're going to do some web scraping to get access to these betting line data. Okay? So as we've done so far, we're going to open up our GitHub issue tracker. I was looking back at the code from before. And also at the end of the last module, one of the things I forgot to do with you all was to commit and merge our branch into master. So I went ahead and did that after I signed off. And so if you look at what we have here, I went ahead and closed issue two. And if we look at our issues now, we have we've closed our two issues. So I'm going to create a new issue. And so we're going to then validate the betting line model. And so a couple of things that we need to think about what we need to get if we think about our checklist is jotting down some notes earlier to pop in here into our issue tracker. We need to find a site with the betting line data. We also need to figure out how to convert the betting line data to probabilities. And we then need to calculate the probabilities from the betting line data calculate. And we need to make a table with the probabilities of winning for each game. And we then need to join that table, the probabilities table. Let's call it the win line probabilities data into our favorite win probe data frame. And then we need to plot the performance of the win line model relative to the 538 and winning percentage models. All right. Cool. So I'm excited to be able to work with you to show you how we can go about extracting data from websites. We're so used to having data come to us as CSV files.  And if we can learn some simple tools like the Rvest package from the Tidyverse, we can use those tools to extract a lot of information from the Internet. All right. So there we are. And I'm going to create a new branch. So I'm seeing that my master is in red, which tells me that I've got some uncommitted changes going on here. So I do get status. I see that I generated a file day 2 EPS. So this is a plot that I was using for thumbnails. So I'm going to go ahead and move this to my desktop. So I'll do mvday2.eps to my desktop. And this isn't being tracked, so that's not going to cause any problems. I was using that as a thumbnail to put in kind of the caption for my YouTube videos, as well as when I put up a Twitter announcement of the new module. All right. So we're back to green. I'm going to do get checkout. B. And I'm going to call it validate the pay line. So I'm going to call it, I'm going to, so I'm going to check out a new branch. Validate betting line model. All right. So here we are. Again, if we do get status, get status. It tells us we're on the validate betting line model branch. And everything is up to date and we're good to go. All right. So we need to find a website that will give us the betting line data. And so again, if we look at our 538 website, there's nothing here. So I'm going to Google for MLB betting line. Yeah, MLB betting line. All right. So money line or betting line. I guess money line is perhaps another way to call it. And let's go ahead and click on this link to see what it tells us. So the next game is tomorrow night between the Cubs and the Cardinals. It doesn't actually have the betting lines in here yet. But if we look down here, it tells us a money line used in baseball and hockey takes the place of a point spread. So it's based simply wagering on the contest based on a given price rather than a point spread. So the team wagered on has to win the game outright regardless of the score. So there's a minus sign. So say the betting line is minus 130, that'll always indicate that it's the favorite. Whereas if it's a plus, that team is the underdog. And so if you bet $130, you will make $100, right? So you'll bet 130 and you'll get back 230. Whereas if you're betting on the underdog and it's plus 120, then if you bet $100, you'll get back $120. So you'll get back a total of $220. And so it's a better payout if you bet on the underdog because, of course, they're not expected to make as much. So this tells you how it works financially. But it doesn't tell us exactly how to convert that to a probability. So we'll come back to that in a minute. And so let's go ahead and click on some of these links to see what we get. Now here's a betting line for the game tomorrow night. So St. Louis at Las Vegas is minus 136. So they're the favorite. So if you bet on the cardinals at minus, if you bet $136 on the cardinals, you'll go back $100. Whereas if you bet $100 on the Cubs, you'll get back $126, at least according to this. One of the things I'm not seeing in here, however, is this tells us the odds for the next game. But it doesn't tell us the odds for the previous games. So I'm trying to get historical data. I'd love to get data going back to 1871. But I know that's a hard sell. Here's a site for Odd Shark. They don't have anything in here yet for the upcoming game. Let's see if we click on Moneyline, Odd Setting. Just kind of looking around. Maybe click on MLB. So this, again, doesn't quite tell us what we want. Maybe we can't scan backwards. All right. So again, what we're looking for is the ability to look at, say, last week's games or last year's games. But I'm not seeing it in here. Go back to my Google search. Let's click here on ESPN. Data line is currently unavailable. Hmm. This is a problem, right? Like, we know what we want for data, but sometimes it's just hard to find the data. I'm just going to open up a few links. So let's try looking at the Sportbook review. Here we have the game that's going to be played tomorrow night. Again, they don't have any betting line data in here. But they do seem to have, yesterday, we've got a little calendar here. Ah, so if I go back to the 15th, which was Sunday, and I look and I see the Cubs versus Diego, the Cubs were a favorite, minus 138 to 127, and the Cubs ended up winning that. We then see all the betting line data that we have there. So let's see. So this is for July 15th, 2018. So oftentimes when websites make a page like this for a specific day or for a specific search query, when we look at the HTML or the URL, sorry, it will embed that up in the URL. So we see 2008, 2018, 7, 15. So there it is. So if we go back to say 2015, 7, 15, maybe that was all star break. So let's put an 01. Ah, so 2015, we have data. If we go back to 2010, yep, we've got data for 2010. Let's do 05. No, no data for 2005. Let's look at 08. No data there. 09. We have data for 2009. And let me just try 08 again, but with a different date, because we might be hitting that all star break. So if I put in 0501, 2008, nothing there. But if we look at 09, we see this page. And so what this tells us then is that we can get odds data going back to 2009. So about nine years worth of data here, which is really exciting. I mean, it's not back to 1871, but still that's pretty cool. The other thing is that I can make, I can use R to generate the URLs for any date that there was a game if I know the date, because it goes year, month, day. Okay? So the next thing I want to know as I'm looking at this from May 1st, 2009 is that we have on the top here Miami versus Chicago Cubs. We have the wind line probabilities. So the Cubs are heavy favorites over the Marlins that day. And I want to know, can I get the names of the teams as well as the score and the betting line? Okay? So the tool that we have, I'm using Safari, but if you're using Chrome or Firefox, it's similar types of things. There's a, if I right click on the area of the website, I'm interested and I can do inspect element. And so this then pulls up the HTML that goes into making, making that link, making that spot in the table. And so what I see is this div that's highlighted, if I click up here, that's highlighted across the middle here of my page, this div is the part of the HTML code that's representing this data. And if I kind of keep highlighting down, I see if I click on this div that I am in the scorebox. So what I'm looking for then is, so this tells me it's the final, the score. So six was the total score and six, eight was the score for the Cubs. Okay? So this, this gives me my score information. I'm also interested obviously in the teams. And so how do I get the teams? So it seems like my divs are out in a weird order because when I click on this, it's not looking at the score, it's looking at the game numbers. So if I look here at the teams in this div, it tells me team 624, team name in that span, MIA, Miami. Okay? So similarly in here, we see CHC. And I wonder what this opener has. So the opener must be, it must be hidden because it's not shown in here where I'm highlighting here. It's showing the score, which is a bit weird. So this must have been the opening bids, the opening cents, event line consensus. And then here we have the first bookings, where again we have the 250 and the minus 270, which I suspect corresponds to pinnacle. I'm not sure what that is. Consensus. Yeah, mine histories. I'm going to hide that. That 230 I think must have been the opening bid. Okay. So what we're interested in getting is the date, the name of the teams, the scores, and then you can see it's changing the code as I hover here. And then the first information or this information here in the event line book tag. Okay. So again, what we're going to do is we're going to try to extract this information from the table to then get our probabilities from that wind line. Okay. And so I'm going to go ahead and copy this because I'm going to use this as my practice. And so a library that we're going to want to use is our vest. Nope. And so our vest is part of the tidyverse, I believe. And I'm going to, you know what, for right now, I think I'm going to make a new file to have something to play around with. So our script. And I'm going to say, read HTML is this. And so then this is the HTML page. And if we look at the HTML page, it's not going to show us much. It's going to say it's an XML document. And it's got a head and a body. These are the first two layers of the web page. And so I'm going to then actually, I'm not going to pipe that I'm going to keep that separate for now. And if I look back at the website, so the div that I'm interested in is a class called event lines. Okay. So you see if I highlight this div, it's covering pretty much exactly what I want it to cover. Right. So div class event lines. And so I can do HTML page. And we can do get nodes. And then div, period, event lines. We just make sure. Yep. So it's lowercase, uppercase event lines. I'm sorry, it's not a get it's HTML nodes. Content delayed. So this then takes a little bit of doing to figure out what exactly it is we're looking at. So this now is returning the div class event lines and everything that's contained within it. And then from this, we want HTML nodes. And we're going to want what is the div that's being described for each of the games. And you know what, content final is probably more of what we want. And then see how we have all of these that that the class is event holder, holder complete. So I'm going to try instead of doing that event lines, I'm going to try holder complete. That didn't work. Should it should be div period. Great. And so we see we've got the 15 divs, one for each of the games that was played on May 1. Okay. So in here now, we have each row representing represented by a different node from our HTML page. So if we look at this first div, that's in here this ID 21712. This then should have all of the information we want. Just looking through here. So it's got the score. And then in here is the check box, but I'm not worried about that. The time, the teams, right? So we want the teams. And then we want the money line. And so what I'm going to try to do is for practice, I think I can get out the first node by doing this. I'm not sure what that is. But I guess what we're looking at now is the content of the first node. Okay. And that didn't work. Alright, so let's just work with that. And we can then say, get nodes. So what we want are the team names. So we're going to do span team name, hyphen name, HTML nodes. And so this then is that line of the span. And if we do HTML text, we now get back our two team names. And if I save this as team names, I can then do team names one. So this then gives me team names for that first game. Okay. And if I looked, if I did two here, and looked at team names, I'll get Mets and Philly, which is Mets and Philly. Okay. So we'll leave that at one for now. So team names. And similarly, we can look, we want to look at team scores. Or we're going to look at scores. And for now, I'm going to copy this, because I'm going to want to parse out the scores from that. So we're going to probably change the span team name to be up here. So we're going to look at total. So we're going to want, let's try total and see what happens. Six to eight, which is the score here, right? Excellent. And now we want the money line. Now I'm going to again, copy this, we'll clean this up here in a bit. We want the money line for that first. So this was there. Event line opener. Consensus. I'll div event line book. Okay. So we can do event line book. And let's see what happens when we do div event line book. If we do money line, we get nothing. All right. So I'm going to just focus on this part. That gives us nothing. So maybe I'm typing in the class name wrong. Yep, L should be capitalized. So this then is giving us the 10 event lines. If I do HTML text, we get the text version for all of the lines. So 250 to 70 is what we want. And then 245 to 65 is the next one, right? So instead of doing HTML nodes, we can do HTML node for money line. And this then gives us the text of the money line, right? Excellent. And so I'm curious what this looks like if we do this, we get two nodes with that event line book value. I'm going to try to do another HTML nodes and book value and see what we get for money line. I'd like to have it output it as a vector, not just a concatenated character. And that gets it for us. Excellent. So we now get 250 and 270, 250 to 70. Excellent. Just as a test, let's throw in a three here. What do we get for money line? 120 128. And that's the third game there. Excellent. All right. So what we want to do is to create a function to parse table row. We'll say function. And then we'll say row, right? And so then if we give, so we're going to want to give it the page and the row. And so then we're going to say team names is page. Actually, we don't want to give it the page, we want to give it the rows, right? And so basically where we put it in would be right about here. So we're going to want to do something like this where we then say, we're going to want to do some type of map where we give it the input. And we're going to ship that to parse table row. Okay.  And it's going to then be this, then give it scores and money line. We take this stuff out and put in row. And then we're going to want to return. So then we're going to, yeah, we're going to return C team names, scores, money line. And then let's see what happens if we try this. Could not find function map. So let's per that package that worked. And so we run map. So we have to use the per function. So let's be sure I'm sorry, the per package, which I think we used before as part of the libraries that we've been loading. Anyway, we'll figure that out when we bring this in right now, I'm just kind of sandboxing what's going on. So we have map. Let's make that map the FR argument one must have names. So we can we can get explicit about this. Let's do team one equals team names one team two equals team names to score one equals scores one score two equals scores two and then money line is money line one, sorry, money line one, money line two is money line two. So while I'm doing this, so let me just double check that this works. argument one must have names. So let me think, we've got this error that it argument one must have names. And I'm not quite sure what that means. We're returning a vector here. Maybe if we returned data frame instead, that would be better. So let's put tibble in there. And so if we run this, that gives us the output that we want. That's pretty exciting. A couple of things that I'm going to take care of here just because it's going to be a lot easier is that everything here is going to be formatted as a character, which isn't really ideal. So I'm going to do as numeric score and as numeric scores. And then here we've got the plus and minus. So if it's got a plus, I want to get rid of that. But we're going to do as dot numeric. And then str replace, we can do plus with nothing money line as dot numeric str replace plus with nothing money line. And this needs a second closing parentheses, closing parentheses for the overall tibble. Great. So let's see what happens if we run all that empty pattern not supported. You know what I think I've got my syntax wrong for str replace. And it wants the string and then the pattern and replacement. So I got this out of order. All right, so we come back here, pattern replacement, money line plus nothing string. So that's the string money line one. And the pattern is the plus sign and replace it with nothing. And I think what I need is the escape character of back back because the plus sign has a special meaning in our networks. Excellent. So now we want to scale this up for all of the dates. And so I'm going to now cut this and bring us back to analysis dot r. And I'm going to come down here to before we do our tidying, because we're going to want to add in code to extract the web pages. Right. And what we want to do is we're going to I'm going to go ahead and run all this code that we previously ran yesterday. And I'm going to want to take the date from fave favorite windprop. So favorite windprop. And we're going to I'm going to pull the date column. Alright, so this gives us all the dates. But I need to filter first on date greater than or equal to what did we say was the earliest may 2009. So I'm going to say date before 2009 01 01, sorry, date after that. And we're going to pull that date. And so then this gets us those. But what you notice is that there's a lot of dates in here that are duplicated. And so I'm going to push this through unique. And now we have one date one value for each date. Here it's going back to 2013. Again, I can do tail to look at the end of the vector. And we see it goes back to opening day of April 5 2009. Excellent. And we need to save this as betting dates. And I'll just move this around a bit to put everything on its own line. So these are betting dates. And I would like to now get my HTML pages. So maybe instead of betting dates, I'll call this HTML pages. And we will then pipe that. And we're going to put pipe that into a paste zero, or paste zero, where we give it this URL. And we're going to replace that with what's coming through the pipe. But we need to remove those hyphens. So we need to do str replace all what's coming through the hyphen with nothingness. Let me just double check that this works. Yep. So that's can that's remove those hyphens. We now pipe this to generate HTML pages. And we get our URLs. I'm just going to grab a random URL to make sure this works. Excellent. So that works. So we've done this now for one page. And we want to repeat it now for all of the dates in our vector HTML pages, we want to be able to turn through all of them creating this table and concatenating them all together.  And it's going to be a function. We'll give it a URL. So we're going to create a function to read in the page, extract the nodes, and then give us the table for that day those, you know, however many games there are. And we're going to use a map function again to spin all these HTML pages into get money line data to then spit back out what we're working on. So to test this, I'm going to create a variable URL. And I've got to steal this from, I guess we had, let me use 2009. That and then we're going to then say, read HTML URL, spit that out here. And this should work. And again, this is the table for August 15 2009. That's excellent. I'm going to go ahead and comment this out. So it's not a bother. And then we'll do map DFR where we're going to give it HTML pages. And we're going to spit that to get money line data. Let's see how long this is. It's about 2000 records long. So before I do that, I want to double check a couple things. So I'm going to make a test data set. So I'm going to do tail HTML pages. I'm going to then put that into here, test. I got to read this whole function in. So it's running, but it's got to go and pull, go and pull. And so it's kind of slow. It tells us that there's about 64 lines, something I'm going to put in here just to know where things are and that things are moving. I'm going to put in a print URL. So every time through, it's going to spit out the actual URL. One other thing I want to test is sometimes formatting changes over time. So I want to put in a 2013 just to make sure this all works. So what we see in the output is that for this 2013 data, it's inserted the name of the picture into team one and team two. And so I'm going to come back up here to my parse table row function and use str replace all replace. And that's going to be my string. And then I need a pattern and a replacement. So the replacement is going to I'm going to make nothing. I'm going to put in a space hyphen dot star or maybe hyphen star, and then forward slash n dot star. So the dot reads to the end of the line. It doesn't also get the new line character. So I'm going to go ahead and run this and then run this to see if we get an improved output. And it looks like nothing's changed. So it's a possibility that this isn't really a space or a space on the space bar. It might be a tab.  And let me just leave that the way it is with the backpack and for now, because it's with are you need the double backs, not just a single run this, and that's still screwing up. So let's be safe. And in here we'll put a backpack ass, which is the meta character to match a white space. We run this and this. We see that for team one. We got it right. Okay, excellent. So we want to copy this down. And we'll do this for team two now. So team two, team two, reload this. And if we do this, everything looks good. Okay, I'm going to try one more date. Let's try this 2017. And hopefully this will work too. Excellent. So now we're ready to run this for all of the dates. And I'm going to save this as money line. Yeah, I'm just gonna save as money line. So we'll save load this into our will get this going and this is going to take a little bit because like we said, it has to go through a few thousand files. So hopefully I've got some pretty good connectivity here on my internet and it will keep going. So I'll sit back and watch and see what happens. Ah, it stops because I put in test rather than HTML pages. Give it another shot. Well, excellent. It took about 45 minutes or so but it finally completed running. If I take a look at what money line looks like, I do the tail. You know what I forgot? I forgot to put in the freaking date. Dang, Pat. That was a fail. So let's see if we can figure out how to redeem this. So we're going to have to go back up here and figure out how to get date out of this. So we're going to want to do row, HTML nodes and let's go back and look at our HTML and I'm going to grab that link as a tester. Where were we? Here, HTML nodes. And so if I look in here, this is that node that we were on and you'll see that there's an attribute rel which has the date in here. So event line odd status complete. So if we look at, if we get status, that status hyphen complete, complete. And then we say HTML adder rel and here we can plug in date as date. I hate it when I do that stuff. We run this. Now we have the date. Fantastic. It's formatted a bit weird. So if we just test, if we do YMD, that's not going to work.  So let's do that. That'll probably just be easiest. str replace date, comma, and we're going to back back s.star and replace that with nothingness. And we'll run these lines, let them rip. Voila. I guess it might be nice to have that date be in date format. So I'm going to quickly look here at lubricate, convert chr to date. So what do these people do as date? Now let's give that a shot. If we do as date, probably wants capital D, huh? Great. That looks right. Do I still have my test thing in here? Let's go ahead and try to test with moneyline just to make sure everything works. And if we look at moneyline, we get the dates, we do tail, moneyline, we get everything too. All right, I guess that's all it was. It was six things along. So tail doesn't really matter. And so then let's come back here and put in HTML pages.  And we'll run this again. See you in another 45 minutes. So we ran all that and everything looked good. So we ran all that and everything looks good. One of the things that I want to make sure is that I don't want to have to rerun this code too many times. I suspect the website's going to get pretty pissed off if I do that. So I'm going to add in here from a write CSV command. So do write underscore CSV. And we'll do path equals data moneyline.csv. And we'll then give that moneyline. I'm going to go to my terminal and I'm going to do mkdir data. And then I'm going to run this and my console. And if I look in my terminal now and do all this data, I see my files there. So I'm going to now take all this code that I had run. And I'm going to copy that into a new R script. And hopefully you can appreciate this is not the ideal way to be doing things. I guess I don't need the West Anderson. I don't think I need Broom. That should work. Ideally, this would be a package, or I'm sorry, this would be a function. And I would need to give it the dates from the favorite Win Prob to run this. But we've kicked this enough that I'm just going to stop for now. And I'm going to save this as get moneyline data.r. I'm going to close that for now. And where we took that out, this needs to be in that file to copy this. And we're going to do write, I'm sorry, read CSV, where we will read that in to moneyline. And I will run this. I'm not sure what the argument is, but anyway, we get that in. And so one of the things that we want to do is to think about how do we calculate the Win Probability. And so while it was running, I was doing some Google searches and found this link to how to convert odds. And if we do a search for moneyline, we see converting moneyline to odds. And so if you have a minus moneyline, which is the favorite, it's minus that number divided by minus that number plus 100. And if you have a plus, it's 100 divided by the moneyline odd plus 100. So let's go ahead and write a function that will allow us to do that. We'll call it get moneyline, prob. And we'll say function. And I'm going to call it give it x. We'll say if, so if x is less than 100, so if it's that negative, then we're going to do minus x divided by minus x plus 100. Else x, I'm sorry, 100 divided by x plus 100. And I'm going to put this up with my other function and I'll load this into r. And we'll have that here now. And so what I'll do is I will do a mutate. So mutate. And we are going to create a, so we've got moneyline one, moneyline two. So I'm going to call it moneyprob1 equals get moneylineprob. And we're going to, so this is actually we're going to need to do a map. I'm sorry. So map dbl, where we give it moneyline one, get moneylineprob, comma. I'm going to copy this down here, set of speed, close parentheses. And for now, I'm going to run that missing value where true false needed. This makes me worried that something weird is going on. So I'm going to go ahead and do this and I'm going to send it to summary and see what the output looks like. And sure enough, my moneylines have some na's in them. And so in the, in my handy dandy cheat sheets here, there's a command in, I believe, the tibial function, yes, to handle missing functions to drop na. And so this will remove any rows that have na's in the column. So if we do drop na and pipe that over, this works great. And so we no longer get that error. And we have the values there. Excellent. So next I would like to, so I'm going to steal code from up above here, where we're getting the favorite and the probability of the favorite. I'm going to add that to my mutate here. And again, instead of WP live, I'm going to put in money. And here instead of WinProp1, I'm going to put MoneyProp1, MoneyProp2. And so we run this. We now have our favorite Money1, as well as favorite MoneyProp. And we can then do our inner join. And I'm going to join the favorite WinProp with this. And we're going to join by date, team one, and team two. And the output is two values, which makes me a little bit worried that my team one and team two are the wrong ones. That perhaps I have things in a different order in the two different data frames. And so if I look at this, and then I look at favorite WinProp, and I'm going to have it show me n equals 15. I'm going to I'm noticing that up here for my Moneyline data frame, I've got some two character abbreviations, whereas down here everything is a three character. So like KCR, sort of KC and CWS instead of CHW. And so I'm going to need to convert between the two.  So let me see if I can do this quickly. I'm going to create a table where one column is from Moneyline and one column is from what we've been working on. And then we'll convert the names. And so I'm afraid that this is going to require a fair amount of plugging and chugging. I can get my FaveWin probability. I'm going to and I only want the team names from the since 2009. So this is the list of those names. And so this is my old Moneyline. I'm going to do the same thing. We have a CSV. I do pull team one and we're going to do unique.  And so we'll put that here. And like I said, I'm going to now make a table manually. And so I'm going to speed along here. So you don't have to watch me do that. Alright, so I went ahead and created a new table for name convert. And if we look at it here, we see that like Anaheim Angels and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, whatever the names were Arizona, Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago, W, Chicago, White Sox. Okay, so we need to add in here then a join. So we'll do inner join. What will we do? We will do the pipe with name convert by and we're going to use the team one team one equals we're going to combine that with ML. And if we look at what that generates, we then see that we've got the FWP name over here in this column. Before we rename that, I'm going to run it again to convert team two. And so now we have FWPX, FWPY. And I am going to select out team one team two. And we're going to rename. And of course, I forget how to rename it. That's my deployer cheat sheet rename. So we're going to then rename FWPX as team one, FWP.y as team two. That's the other way around. And so now we've got team one and team two. And these are all the what we saw before, you know, like we had KC and TB as part of the money line data. And now we have KCR and TBD. All right. So the other thing I noticed, when I look at this output where team one and team two are Toronto and Boston, and so forth, if I look at the first 10 lines of let's do whatever. Favorite WinPROB, we see, so you have SDP, let me just find one that there's overlap. So TBD and MD and IN are swapped here with men and TBD.  And so when we do our join, if we had time, I'd go back and yet again, change ones and twos for generating the money line data. And so we're going to do team one for team two. And team two, team one. And actually, you know what I might do here would be to do I'm going to I'm going to change it here in as I read it in. And so I'm going to do team one equals team two, team two equals team one. And you know what, that's really all the places that matter is because we already have fave money one. And in fact, screw it, I'm not screwed. So if we join this now, we now have a much larger data frame. And that's pretty sweet. So I'll also add score one equals score two and score two equals score one. This looks pretty good. So this now has a lot of what we want. And I'm going to then select out these values. Great. And so we have our scores, whether the favorite one and the probability. And I'm going to now save this back as favorite win prop. Get rid of that. Okay, and now we have our favorite win prop data frame. That's got 24,000 25,000 or so records since 2009. We now want to make this tidy. I'm going to add here to my mutate the wind line or wind prop. This is going to get favorite money one, very many prob and gather win prob, we run this tidy win problem. If we look at the tail of tidy win prob, there we go. Excellent. We can then missing argument to function call. Oh, that common to be there. I'm going to then look at the overall win probabilities. And just to make it easier to see, I'm going to arrange by mean. And what we see. So this is an ascending order. Let me descend it. And we see that the win probabilities, which we've been working on today has a similar effectiveness at predicting the winner, the favorite as win percentage using the current. And it's a little bit better than the 538 model. So that's pretty slick. What I'd like to know is to recreate that plot that we've been looking at of performance over time. We're not going to go all the way back to 1871 because we don't have the probability data, the wind lines going back that far. But we should still be able to see some some pretty good stuff. And I think all this stuff will stay the same, except so have WP current. And then we will also have win prob. Right. Let's give this a shot. And it's a bit hard. And for some reason in here we have four lines. We probably have more than that. I forgot to do our filter. So we're going to do a filter model equals equals equals FTE or model equals equals a win prop or model equals equals WP current. Pipe that. And so now we will get those lines. And so those are pretty steady over the last nine years or so. And I think we've got overall win prob coming in here in our genome H line. I'm going to leave that for now. Actually, let's go ahead and just put the same filter up here. We get effectively the same thing. So you can see the little blue line right on top of the WP current and the 538 just below that. Okay. Excellent. So next we want to go ahead and look at how well the observed win probability matches the predicted win probability by all these models. And again I'm going to add in this filter to focus the data on these three models.  And it's just going to be a horror show. So this all I think looks good. I want to add in here my win prop and remove these two. Win prop. And so this is what it looks like, which is pretty slick. It's pretty messy but you can imagine that most of the data that we have is really in this range between say 0.5 and 0.7. And that the three models do a really good job of replicating each other over this period of time. With the 538 we tended to see it overpredict. But again that was with all the data going back to 1871. And so I need to update this to be since 2009. And so I'm going to say the three models do an excellent job predicting the true fraction of games that the favorite excellent. So that's pretty, that's pretty cool. So what we're seeing is that the wisdom of the crowd with this win prop model here in blue more or less matches what we'd get with the 538 model or the WP current model. So remember the WP current model assumes that we have all the information about the season on day one to know the wins and losses heading into that game. Whereas the 538 bakes in information about you know pitcher and home field advantage and distance traveled and all that kind of stuff. Whereas the wisdom of the crowd is probably taking all that into account also as well as a bunch of homers who want to you know bet for the home team their favorite their favorite team. And so to see that work out that way is pretty cool. Alright so let's go ahead back to our issue tracker. We figured that out. Calculated the probabilities. We made the table. We joined the wind line probabilities with the performance and that's all good to go. So I'm going to go back to my terminal and get status. So we've got get add analysis. Get get that want to see how big that file is before I put it. Yeah, it's pretty small. So I'm going to go ahead and get add data money line. So if that file was too big, then I wouldn't really store that inversion control. And so I will do get commit dash m. And so we will do incorporate the money line probability model closes number three. And I do get check out master. I'm going to say no, I'm going to get merge. You know what? I'm a little bit worried. I'm going to get check out validate betting line model. Save that. And that should be good. Okay, so then I'm going to get get check out master. Get merge validate betting line model. Get status, get push. And so refresh. All is good. Excellent. So we'll be back tomorrow with the final installment of these demos looking at wind loss predictions in Major League Baseball data.


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