Hello everybody. I think we're ready to start today's webinar, the 24th webinar of the series of Latin American webinars. My name is Alejandro de la Puente. I'm currently a post-doctor fellow at Carlton University in Ottawa and I'll be hosting today's webinar for you. I'm very happy to announce that we're going to be talking about something that I'm really excited to hear about because I haven't heard much about it and it's about the inner 300th parsec of the Galactic Center, as seen by Hess. We're followed live by colleagues from around the world, people in Spain, people in Brazil, Sweden, Chile and obviously France. And before we start the talk by Emmanuel, who I'm going to introduce in just one minute, I'd like to remind you that after the talk, or during the talk, you can put your questions on the questions and answers that are in the Google Plus section of this webinar. And also you can use Twitter using the hashtag low law physics. And we also have now a web page, a WordPress page, where you can follow us online and all the activities that we're actually doing. So today's speaker is Emmanuel Mulan. He's currently a staff researcher at CEA SACLE in France. He received his PhD from LPSC in Grenoble, France and did a two-year postdoc at CEA SACLE before taking on his new position as a staff researcher. The title of his talk is the inner 300th parsec of the Galactic Center, as seen by the Hess collaboration. So with that, I'm going to hand you over to the speaker and I really, really, really hope you all enjoy today's talk and please don't forget to ask your questions right afterwards. Thank you, Emmanuel, and here it is for you to start. Okay, so let me first thank the organizers and I'm very happy to present you what you can see of the inner 300th parsec of the Galactic Center with TV gamma rays with the Hess observatory. Okay, so you can hear me well? Yeah, everything is actually very, it's perfect. Okay, so today's, so this Galactic Center region has been observed routinely for more than 10 years with Hess in the, for many aspects and there are many science cases we can cover with these observations and today I'm going to talk about the quest for cosmic origin with these observations. Okay, so let me first recap a few things as in a short introduction so all of us know, all of you, know that we are continuously bombarding by cosmic rays on Earth and they are mainly composed of, at about 90% of protons. This is the main components of the cosmic rays arriving on Earth. Okay, so these protons, they are trajectories deviated by magnitude fields in the interstellar magnetic field and also of course the intergalactic magnetic fields. So what is interesting is that this flux of cosmic rays is measured over more than 10 order of magnitude in energies and more than, yeah, many order of, ordering flux. What we can see is that we have almost a power low extended over many, many order of magnitude and we have basically two, two regions in this spectrum, the low energy parts. It is basically a cosmic rays of galactic origins and the low energy coming to the GV at least, they are produced by the supernova remnants. On the far hand of this cosmic ray spectrum, we, it is commonly believed that this cosmic rays have an extragalactic origin, but in between, the origin is not clear and this is, let's say, between a few, 10 to the 15 electron volts, 1 PV up to 100 of PV. So this region is called the knee and for this region, we need to postulate or at least we need other galactic sources, or population of sources to provide the required cosmic ray flux we observe. And this kind of sources, we call pavatrons in the sense that these sources accelerate cosmic rays up to PV energies at least. Okay, so proton, of course, they are accelerated at the sources, but deflected during the, their way up to the herd. What is interesting is that the gamma rays can be continuously produced at or in the vicinity of the sources by both during proton interaction or propagation. And these gamma rays, at least at the galactic scales, are not deflected and then they propagate up to the earth as in straight lines. So in that sense, we can, they point back to their source. This is the one main point and with this detection of very high energy gamma rays, we can add the morphology of the gamma rays at the projection site. And these are useful, very useful probes to look for the accelerative particle of the sources. Okay, so just in one sentence, what is interesting is that these gamma rays, they are very effectively produced through electromagnetic or electronic, electronic or electronic interactions. And what is interesting there is that they can be effectively detected in the detectors by spaced or ground-based instruments. Of course, they also effectively interact with matter or radiation or B-fields during their travel up to the, up to the earth. So even the information is, they contain very important information about the acceleration processes, but they can arrive to us with some distortion. So to track these sources of PV cosmic rays, these pair of atoms, they are basically three main channels. We need, of course, gamma rays in the 10,000 TV energy range. Also, neutrinos are effectively produced in case of proton interactions. So they travel directly unaffected up to the earth. So they are very useful probes. And there are some secondaries, I would say x-rays produced by secondary electrons during proton interactions. And these x-rays can carry out significant information also to PV cosmic rays. So for the detection, so the gamma rays, they are, we all know that they are detected with kilometer square array, which is the ground-based chunk of rays. The neutrinos, they are detectable by, with some difficulties, but they are detectable with ice cube and, or kind-free nets. And they carry also unambiguous signatures. And we have also, as I said, the x-rays that are produced by the secondary electrons. And in case of very high magnetic fields, these x-rays are produced simultaneously to the gamma rays because of the very strong synchrotron losses in case of very high energy environment, which is the case of the galactic center. So they are produced, basically, seamlessly to the gamma rays. Okay, so in order to track to four pavatrons, cosmic ray pavatrons, with the gamma ray measurements, we need to demonstrate that these gamma rays are produced through adenic interactions. And that the parent proton spectrum can extend at least to one pv in energy. So, but what we can see is that these protons, to allow for the gamma ray observations, we need targets for these very high energy protons. So this target can be matter, rejection field, or magnetic field. So a target is required for the production of gamma rays. So one interesting target is the gas clouds that are, let's say, we can coordinate like barometers of cosmic rays. So these gas clouds are very useful in that case. And one thing which is important is that the gamma rays emissions coincide with the target material, the gas, but not necessarily with the primary particle accelerators. So in that case of proton-proton interactions, the kinematics of the process of the inelastic scattering of energy protons in the gas, in delta slash gas, tells you that the gamma rays is about one-tenth of the proton interactions. So what we need to detect in gamma rays is gamma ray energy up to about n dot tv. Okay, so what I just said can be, is presented in this sketch. So what we can see is that protons are accelerators and can diffuse in the vicinity of the source. And in the case they eat gas, they can produce gamma rays and neutrinos that travel directly to the Earth. So this is an example of the spectrum of the broadband energy spectrum we can expect. So you can see the gamma rays, the neutrinos, and the x-rays I just talked about at much lower energies. Okay, so now just a few slides about the detection techniques. So these gamma rays produced as they enter in the Earth atmosphere, they interact very efficiently and they produce an electromagnetic cascade and charge particle in the, in the shower, produce a chain of light and this chain of photons can be collected on mirrors. The light pool of the chain of light is about 100 meters and radius on the ground.  So the chain of light is focused on the cameras that are the focal plane of the mirrors and this last light flash is very short in a pixel basically, in a pixel of camera with about a point one degree field of view, the light flash lasts about 10 nanoseconds. Okay, so of course there are many, the gamma ray showers are dominated by the number of adren showers and just give you a sketch of what the gamma rays and the proton shower look like and what we can see is that here the gamma ray shower is much more concentrated along the longitudinal, along the longitudinal axis and the proton is much more spread on the lateral axis. This is due to inelastic interactions and IPG particles are produced in this kind of shower and this creates sub-electromagnetic showers. So this is what you can see for instance for these two showers in the interacode flight on the ground. What you can see is that for the gamma rays you have more or less a light pool, a circular light pool, in case of protons you can see many shower showers on the ground. Okay, in the camera what it looks like, so you have the adren light even so given the multiple sub-shower you have different clamps in the cameras. For the gamma light we have a kind of ellipsis topology in the camera, in the camera. Muons that are also copiously produced from adrens or interaction gives you circles so they can be easily identified. So the discrimination at the first, at the camera level is done in the shower image in the camera on the topologies, you can calculate moments of the image in the camera for instance and if you have a multiple image of the same shower in different camera it helps you a lot to discriminate against background and also to improve the reconstruction of the particle direction. So in that case what you can do is that you can compare your recorded image to a database of image and through a maximum likelihood procedure you can recover the best parameter of any showers, energy direction, impact parameters and so on. So on the analysis level you can make a cut to separate your sample into gamma light even and adren light even. Of course what you can see on this slide on the plot you can see that you have still some contamination of background even in the signal sample. So to fight against or to remove this residual background you have, there are several techniques but one is to use the on minus off type measurements. So in this case assuming that the residual background is uniform you measure the background symmetrically in the camera field of view to the center of the camera. So in that case you can estimate the residual background which is in the on region from measurement in the off region. Of course you can use large off region to have a very good measurements and reduce statistical uncertainty on this background level. Of course it can work only if the signal region is lower in scale than the field of view of the camera for any extended emission which is at the left of the size of the camera field of view. This kind of measurement doesn't work and it automatically subtracts any extended emission. Okay so now the S experiment is using this technique and it works well since more than 10 years now and the S experiment is you may know located in Namibia and it consists of two phase. The phase one is composed of four telescopes of 12 meter in diameter with field of view of 5 degrees and eye granularity camera with more than 900 photometrificators and the energy threshold for any angle observation is about 100 GV. The angular resolution pair of camera rays is better than 0.1 degree. Energy resolution is about 15 percent. It works fine since 2003 and since 2012 one additional telescope is present at the center of the array. This is a big telescope of 20 meter in diameter, a field of view of 3.5 and a camera of more than 2,000 photometrificators. It aims to reduce the energy threshold down to several tens of GV at the price of degraded angular resolution about 0.4 degree at 40 GV and works since 2012. In parallel to that they are also the upgrade of the S1 camera but what I will present in the following would be only result from the phase one of S meaning only data taken with the 412 meter telescope. Okay so we are detecting many sources in gamma rays and what we call teratron since the gamma rays are produced up to TV energies and so far we have more than 170 gamma rays sources detected between 50 GV up to 80 GV and with each source is a particle accelerator. So this is a number of sources you can see that it increased quite a lot and since 2005. So there are many kind many accelerators with related to many different sources. First we enable starbursts, AGM, etc. One thing which is important with S and it is a big contribution of the experiment is a scan of the galactic plane and about 77 sources have been detected in the galactic plane surveys with S in the beginning. Okay but about the pavatrons so far there is no pavatrons even what we think to be the main supplier of pavatrons, the supernova remnants. All the supernova remnants we detect so far with ground based telescope does not have the required features to account to be robust pavatrons. For instance the well known supernova remnants ROG-7013 is a very bright super supernova remnants but has a cutoff at TV energies or so. So it cannot accelerate efficiently up to up to PV, the protons up to PV energy since the cutoff in gamma rays has about a few TV. Okay so the galactic center region is very interesting for us since we can see this region a large amount of hours during the years under low zenith angle. So it is very good for the energy threshold and the sensitivity but this region is very prior to it as you may know so there are many sources, SNRs, Prisawin Nebulae and for instance the in the radio map you can see here there are many structures you can see for instance some supernova remnants of molecular cloud you can see and even some arc feature. Okay one important thing is that region and is that it contains giant molecular clouds which is called the central molecular zone and this is massive structures we reach very rich in gas and this is about 10% of all the gas in the galaxy so it's a huge concentration of gas in that region. Okay so it's a very effective target for protons for instance. Okay so the galactic center seen by Hess in 2005 you have two bright point like sources you may not heard of so the central emission is SG 1745 minus 290 so this source is still unidentified so we don't know exactly which is the counter parts of these emissions and we have the G09 that have been detected also. Further observation of these central emissions of G714 revealed ion energy cut off in this on the spectrum which is preferred about power low by significantly preferable power low and the cut off is at about 15 TV so it is a strong emission about 10% of cloud flux point like and so far we did not detect any variability the flux is about constant we detect about 1 gamma per minute. So about the position of these sources with the precision measurements we can see that now we are able to exclude some counter parts in the vicinity within the 10 portions and for instance the supernova remnant is excluded at more than 5 sigma and the counter parts that are the viable counter parts are the supermassive black hole, the P-wing which is marked with the black triangle and also a spike of dark matter. So subtracting these two point like emission what we detected in 2005 is a diffuse emission which is partially correlated to the distribution of the density of molecular gas of the central molecular zone and this points toward an anodic origin of this emission I will see. So now more than 5 years later we have much more statistics in these regions the previous map was done with about 50 hours now we have much more than that we have more than 200 hours of exposure on Sagittarius A star and we can do very detailed and spatial measurements of the diffuse emission. So this is the actual map the access map and below this you can see the angular distribution from Sagittarius A star of the emission. So in the map in slide 31 the data set we have with S it is more than 100,000 gammas in this map and this is the deepest exposure we have in S and we can do very detailed map of the emission. So we have a complex structure of the emissions as we can see and if we zoom in this is the map we had in these years and you can see the diffuse emission in Galactic coordinates and so Sagittarius A star is marked with a star and you can see in red the diffuse emission which is extended and correlated to the molecular cloud distribution this molecular cloud distribution is represented by the white contours that give you the density of clouds basically. So what we did is that we measured the gamma luminosity in different regions that are the annulite and the circular region black region and we use the measurement of the cloud mass that are done independently and with this two quantity we can go back to the cosmic ray energy density since basically this is proportional to the gamma luminosity of other mass. So what we do is that we measure the flux of gamma rays in each of the regions and compute the luminosities and given the mass measurements in each of the regions we can compute the cosmic ray density. So for instance in the slice of the three we can compute the cosmic ray density in the first open annulite and we can do these measurements in all the black regions where we integrate the signal and what we can see is that the cosmic ray density we can measure is decreasing as we go further to the center of our galaxy. So this is what we can see here and what we have is that we have a decrease of the cosmic ray density that allows for the earth to locate the accelerators of the protons and from the measurements what we can see is that the 1 over 4 behavior is prepared by the data and significantly prefer over a flat behavior of the cosmic ray density or even 1 over r squared dependency of the cosmic ray density. So there are two conclusions that first we can locate the accelerators, it is located within the 10-portsec of the galactic center and given the dependencies of the cosmic ray density we can say that we have a continuous injection of protons with diffusive propagation on this scale. In order to fill all this central molecular zone the injection must be continuous over more than 10 to 1000 years or so. Okay, so now we can also do some detail spectral measurements and on slide 43 on the right panel of the figures on the top you can see an open ring and we extract the gamma rays flux from this region and this is what is presented in the lower left panel, this is a flux of gamma rays as a function of energy and the spectrum of this region is given by the red points and what we can see is that the flux of gamma rays is a pure polo and there is no sign of or hints of cutoff in the spectrum and this is contrary to what we detect in the central emission where we clearly see a significant cutoff. So with the measure flux of the diffuser emission which is the red points we have a pure polo with an index of 2.3 and no cutoff up to about 50 TVs. So with this, this requires that the pure parent proton spectrum should at least expand up to PV energies and given the quality of the measurements of the spectrum, the gamma ray spectrum we can look for energy cutoff in the parent proton spectrums and in which sense we are looking at which energies the resulting gamma ray spectrum is deviating from the measurements and this is what we can see. So we can put some lower limit at various confidence level on the possible cutoff in the parent proton spectrum and you can see for instance that at 68% confidence level, the cutoff in the parent proton spectrum is 2.8 PV. At 90% confidence level it's about 0.5 PV. Okay, so given that spectrum what we can say is that we have some continuous injection over more than 50% of the spectrum in 10 to 53 years and if we calculate the cosmic ray power it is about of 10 to the 38 error per second. So given these two things which is new is that and compared to the 2006 results where we saw an excess of cosmic ray compared to the local C of cosmic ray we detect in the solar neighborhood is that we can now locate the accelerators. It is located in the 10% of the galactic center. What we can say now is that it accelerates protons up to PV energies and the acceleration is continuous given that we can now sample the cosmic ray density in the 200 parsec of the galactic center. So given that we have a robust detection of the cosmic ray atoms. Okay, so but what are the possible counterparts of these accelerators? So of course one of the viable counterparts is the black hole located at the heart of our galaxy and in that case we can see that a significant given the acceleration power of the actual acceleration power of Sagittarius ASTOR and given the rate which is released in acceleration of high energy particles. We have a significant fraction of this acceleration power which is released in actualization of high energy particles. So this is an important point and also what we can say is what we can speculate is that Sagittarius ASTOR may have been more active in the past and we have some insight about this. For instance if it is, we can see that there are, if the Fermi bubbles are connected to some outflows it means that we may have on longer timescales Sagittarius ASTOR may have been much more active and in that case if it has been more active with an acceleration power of more than 10 to the 38 air power second with continuous over 10 to the 6, 10 to the 7 years the galactic center of atoms can explain most of the galactic cosmic rays about under TV to PVs which is good. Okay, what are the other possible ways to loop for these pavatrons? What are the multi-messenger signatures of these pavatrons? So as I said in the, quickly in the introductions we have some secondary electrons from pion decays which produce poms and crotons. Given the high-mine energy fields the x-rays are produced continuously to the gamma rays and this is what, given what we measure with S, this is the prediction of the flux in the TV range for instance and you can see this is on the top figure and you can see the measure flux by XMM. So the predicted flux from this pavatron in the TV is too faint compared to the diffuse thermal emissions. This is a black point on the figures seen by XMM. Another important channel for the signature of pavatrons is the neutrinos that are produced via pion decays and this is a prediction for various cut-off for instance in the protein spectrum and you see that the signal, the predicted signal is close to the detection sensitivity of kilomotor cube scale detectors. Okay, so I think I can, I come to my summary. So the search for pavatron and I hope I try to convince you it's very important to understand the origin of cosmic rays and especially the galactic cosmic rays. We have several candidate observed with S and the galactic center origin is one of the most important region and this is where we find the first or the most evidence of pavatrons. So given the risk data set, we saw a strong correlation between the gamma-ray luminosity and the molecular cloud distribution. The correlation is not linear and we have the first measurements of the radial cosmic ray density distribution in the 200 parts of the galactic center. The spectrum we measure in gamma-ray suggests that the black hole is likely the hydraulic cosmic ray accelerators which conduct the particles over more than at least a thousand years to peel the energies. And this is the first robust detection of the cosmic galactic pavatrons and the total energy powers is important about 10 to the 38 air cross seconds which is much more than the volumetric luminosity of the galactic center. So now the speculation is that if Sagittarius star has been more active in the past, it could explain at least most of the cosmic rays in the near regions between the Android TV or two TV's. So there are other candidate that may be possible, viable pavatrons and there are S analysis ongoing and this pavatron searches in the galactic center origin the Archi-Cyan project for the next ground-based gamma-ray observatory CTA. So with this region as is able to cover a vast number of cyan cases, we have a very rich data set accumulating over the last 10 years. Of course we have a detection of a pavatron, we have diffused emissions, large scales, a variety of sources emitting at the energy energies. There are possibly outflows in this region and maybe the base of Fermi bubbles and of course this region is also important for dark matter searches. So this is my last slide, I think I'm in time or almost and I leave you with my summary. Thank you. Thank you so much Emmanuel for the very interesting talk. I'm going to open the floor for questions. Please don't forget for the viewers to submit your questions through questions and answers in Google plus and also through Twitter via the hashtag love physics. So I'll take questions right now, there is a couple of questions already on the questions and answers but I'll go with the questions on the floor first. Anyone? Roberto we cannot hear you. You can hear me because I was mute. I like very much your talk Emmanuel, very nice. So I have a question regarding with dark matter. It's likely that the source, this pavatron is the Sagittarius A but is there a way to ensure that this for instance the Sagittarius A or for instance kind of exotic source like BEV dark matter decay that is quite lately I've been, it's very happy use for the explain this ice cube neutrinos at BEV or I don't know if it was. Yeah of course some pv decaying dark matter would produce some extended gamma ray emissions but here we have some from correlation of the signal with the target material. So in that sense I would say it is a conventional explanation of the diffuse emission we see in gamma rays I cannot exclude that there is some contribution of more exotic things such as decaying dark matter but yeah and also in case of decaying, yeah you need as you mentioned some very heavy dark matter which is possible of course but I don't know what to say. Yeah let's say we have some, yeah we try to argue that this is the most conventional explanation that produce most of the signal we detect in the gamma rays. So yeah this is what, of course we will have much more exposure in the next year with S and with the advent of CTA in that region and what we want at the end is to detect the cutoff in the diffuse emission and the study of for instance the cutoff in the energy cutoff in gamma rays, a detailed study of the energy cutoff in gamma rays with very good energy resolution may help you for instance to distinguish between some dark matter interpretation or more let's say yeah cutoff in the proton injection spectrum for instance. Also you can think of long term variability studies of the diffuse emission and if but quite long if there are some different activity of Sagittarius A star you may see some variability in the cutoff but yeah I would say that the one important thing is to detect the cutoff in the diffuse emissions and to measure very accurately the shape of the cutoff in the energy spectrum. That would be my yeah something important for the next years. I hope we answer at least partly to your question. Yeah yeah yeah now it's a little bit more I mean it's clear. Ok I have a question. Go ahead go ahead Herman. I have a question regarding well also the data because as far as I understand there is no H2 data in this analysis. Exactly yeah. Will it benefit in some point of H2 data incorporation here? Well what is important is of course the whole gamma spectrum from the low energy hand to the high energy hand so in that sense you may want to have S2 but what drive the results what happened in the highest energies of S2 with S2 you expect more flux sensitivity but given the very large photon statistics we accumulate with S1 it will take some time to even if we expect higher sensitivity with S2 it will take time to get the sensitivity we have with S1. There is a question from the questions and answers at Google plus. First he says from Marco Santander very nice talk can you explain what gas density measurements and radio profile models you use to derive to see our density? Yeah ok so the mass measurements in all the integration region is a crucial measurements and there are substantial uncertainties in this measurement. So and it is accounted in the error bars we see in the density distribution of cosmic rays that the mass measurements is at about a factor of two uncertainties. So to probe the density in this molecular clouds we use the CS line measurements with some transition. So this is based on the CS measurements and also we test we also compute the mass measurements using other tracers of the gas density such as CO or HCN and using this the mass measurements with other tracers still the one over here behavior is significantly preferred over the other dependency of the of the the radial profile. So yeah this is is it enough to answer or do you want more detail? Of course what it was kind of request to use different tracers for the mass estimate because they are biased in each of the tracers so they are not probing for instance the same density range for instance. So it was very important to use them and of course the density within the clouds is not homogeneous so but we don't know exactly how much the cloud are clamping for instance so it was crucial to confirm the robustness of the density measurements with other tracers but basically the mass measurements is within a factor of two uncertainties and is accounted in the error bars. So yeah he actually he got the answer and he thanks you for it. I think there is another question from here from Miguel Angel or not? Yes yes I actually have one. So very nice stuff Manuel. I actually have a question regarding the cutoff that you mentioned. I was wondering if there are any expectations from you know from models for the you know the central galactic source. What should we expect the cutoff if any? Are there any estimates about that? Are also observations compatible with what the people thought it would be? Can you comment on that? What we expect for instance in the cutoff of the proton spectrum this is what you mean or yes okay so of course we we we don't know at least we don't what if we we want we want power low acceleration to PV so to have some effective production. With efficient production of of proton activities PV energy we don't want cutoff in this region but formally of course there are there are some cutoff somewhere and we want to measure it but I'm not sure if like they are not strong there are no prediction basically because we see that there are PV so we need some some particular acceleration to be efficient up to this PV energies. We parametrize this in terms of a cutoff in the energies so meaning that we don't want a significant decrease or or loss in acceleration efficiency in the PV but we there is no prediction of this of this cutoff. Okay so what's the main limitation in your I mean when you make the measurement at the highest energies it's just a statistical limitation like your statistics you run out. Yeah basically we are in the statistically limited region so I guess with that we see CTA all that will be probably better. Yeah we will expect better much more statistic with CTA and and I think with S it will be difficult because now we are fighting with the systematics also in this in this region. Thematic of the of the background is is very yeah it's very difficult so this is now I would say that this is not only we could accumulate more statistics in the next few years with S but we would love to really understand much more in detail the the background systematics at NT these gamma ray energy for instance. Very very important and of course very difficult but crucial I would say. Thank you. There is a question from the questions and answers section is from Diego Alejandro Restrepo and he wants to know if you can explain how the center of the dark matter halo can be determined using this. The center of the dark matter halo. Okay so okay well so all the dynamics in this region is dominating so the gravitational potential in this region is dominated by the by the barionic matters. Okay so for instance the the the central the the central the position of the black hole is is located very precisely to coincide with the gravity center of the of the Milky Way. Given the for instance the star the star dynamics the very close by star dynamics and and we can given the the circle of the velocities of the stars we can as they are this is Keplerian motion which is measured and we can accurately measure the position of the of the of the black hole it is coincident with the gravity center for the dark matter halo if you assume sufficient relaxation time in this region between because dark matter and barions interact at some point so if the system is relaxed in principle there is no reason why the gravity center should not coincide. Of course if the system is not relaxed it might be the case so it means that the gravity center determined by the barions by the stars for instance can be different from the barocentral of the dark matter halo but given the the relaxation time at the galactic center it seems that it is relaxed so I would say that there is no reason why it should be displaced displaced or at least to my knowledge some yeah conventional explanation we have a relaxed system relaxed system so in principle the gravity center should coincide I hope it hope it it's answered partly to the question sorry thank you Manuel is there any questions from here because there is one more from the questions and answers from Diego Alejandro as well so that one unless yeah I have a very short question I mean about CTA if Manuel do you know more or less how many hours of observation require CTA to improve largely this observation by Hess or in the other way also how much time CTA will dedicate to this kind of searches observation okay so so the galactic center region and the inner few degrees of the galactic center is a priority of the consortium observation program of CTA it is a key science project so and a significant amount of observation is is foreseen in that region we in the in the first years of operation of CTA we expect about 500 hours in the in the few degrees of the galactic center so it will be a huge exposure and so the exposure will be much more than the one of S in about the yeah in in a few years the yeah the exposure will be at least yeah twice of S and on the other hand sensitivity will be improved with CTA the flex sensitivity so so we expect I I don't want to give numbers here because yeah it deserves a more quantitative explanation yeah determination but I would say in a yeah in several years in a couple to five years we we we hope to to yeah to to to reveal the the cut off in the in the deepest emissions in my head but on the other end this region will be also very complex for for for CTA because CTA will we'll have to to control the systematics and we will have to control the systematics very precisely in this region of course given the energy threshold we expect much more emission and also maybe maybe other contribution to the diffuse emission so the future with CTA will be bright I would say but also it will be challenge challenging to and difficult to to extract information given the we will have much more sources shining with given the the CTA sensitivity and also we we will have to work quite a lot on the system to control the systematics yeah in this region so yeah okay I don't know this is probably the last question that I'm going to ask you this is from Diego Alejandro Restrepo and it's what what is the key parameter to explain the PEV acceleration of hydronic particles is it magnetic field even horizon black hole size etc okay so the the key to put the key parameter is that we want to have hydronic interaction of course so we can think of some leptonic models in the in the galactic center for instance but the magnetic field it's quite high so about 100 micro goes so in that case the energy losses for electrons are very are severe so in the sense that the electrons lose very efficiently their energy through synchrotron losses for instance and also it is very difficult given exactly this argument to accelerate electrons up to hundred TV for instance so this basic fact I would say the challenge quite a lot the some leptonic interpretation of the of the gamma ray emission in the galactic center so this is yeah for the hydraulic emission this is what what would be the arguments on the measurements is that the there is a striking correlation with the with the the map the the the cloud distribution so if you want the electrons could not propagate let's say under TV electron could not propagate over 200% this is not possible in the galactic center environment so you will need many many leptonic source leptonic sources I would say so and this will require fine-tuning in the distribution of these sources for instance so this is that will be my my answer to so the real thing is that the measurements of the the Cosmic Ray densities which and the gamma ray measurements correlated with the the gas density distribution the location within the 10 porsec tells you that you don't have many astrophysical counterparts in that regions and yeah in the 10 porsec region to produce this energies over thousand years only the proton accelerated in the vicinity of the black hole are viable possibility I would say I hope this this help yes thank you man I think unless there is any more questions here I think I have one really really really quick question because I haven't been able to ask one regarding ice cube so ice cube is able to also have a sensitivity to this high energy cosmic rays right through production of pions in the atmosphere or did I get that wrong and how how complimentary is there the results against the results seen by by has well of course since it is pion interactions it is very difficult it is very easy to predict the the neutrino flux from the the GCP veterans and so far ice cube did not see any let's say extended emissions but who knows what we say is that it is within the reach of ice cube given the flux we predict but yeah it's difficult for me to say more about about the sensitivity of ice you it is within the reach of but this this neutrinos will be much lower in energy as detected by ice cube right much lower in energy than the gamma ray seen by yes principle there is no reason for that because if you for instance see one of the my first introduction for instance let me just slide number 11 in principle the number of neutrinos is very is is about the same of the gamma rays because the proton protons produce pi plus pi minus and pi zeros so yeah so in principle the numbers of neutrinos this they reached the same energies and they follow closely at least the indexes the index of the neutrino signal follows closely the the proton spectrum thinking thinking like a model builder because a lot of models that have been proposed to explain this pvx is that ice cube is a models of leptoquarks very high energy neutrinos produce a leptoquark in the ice and then this one the case so I was just wondering if if you or anyone that you've talked to have thought of any beyond the standard model scenarios where this pv protons can come from but no that would be I myself I do not think a lot about this but that that would be very interesting I think okay well I think I think there's no more questions and I want to really thank you for your time and for all the answers you've given us so really it was really interesting talk and I hope everyone that I watched the seminar the webinar enjoyed it I actually did a lot please don't forget to subscribe to the to the YouTube channel you can see this talk all over again it's going to be there forever as long as the internet exists and if you didn't have time to finish the talk obviously you can finish it later too so I really hope to see you for our 25th webinar and thank you all for for coming and I'm going to leave you really quickly with not the end is not here but well I'm just going to leave you but thank you very much and you guys everyone has a have a nice day thank you


Today we're going to be talking about testing your services, but before we get into that. I want to introduce myself My name is Neil. I'm originally from Iowa. So I feel at home here in the Midwest Now I live in California in LA specifically and I'm a software developer and independent consultant who does rails javascript HTML CSS basically if you name an acronym, I probably coded in it at some point so Today's talk is going to be the what the why and the how of testing your services This is not a talk about building testable services. I could do an entire talk about that on its own It's also not necessarily a talk about test-driven development While I'm a practitioner. I don't think that the principles applied here correspond directly to test-driven or not test-driven development so Got that one good So first we're going to talk about the what so we have to ask ourselves. What is the service? So I break it down into two main categories First of all, we have external services like the Twitter API Facebook's API or Amazon web services and the other category is internal software oriented architecture a buzzword We all know and love so Basically for the purpose of this talk it means any time you're making an HTTP request to an endpoint in another repository So basically any network request you're making outside of your application So now we're going to talk about why? Because we need some justification before we go ahead and test all of our services without question So first we have to ask ourselves why our services themselves important I think a lot of these are pretty self-evident. It allows us to build things faster. It allows us to scale more easily and We use them on basically every application I don't think I can personally think of an app I've built in the past few years that hasn't glued on multiple services And I'm also noticing that we're using more and more services for every application So I would argue that services are critical to modern Rails development So we have to ask ourselves then why is testing those services important? Well, first of all, you should be testing everything else so why would it be different for services and Services often compose critical features of your application for example a stripe integration if your billing's down You're gonna have a lot of issues You know if you have an API request to S3 and not going to be able to serve images if that's down And you might also encounter problems with these APIs. I know I sure have Basically any time I've worked with an API there's been some unexpected results so the first example I'm going to take you through is You know an internal API built by consultants in another part of the company so this is the software oriented architecture we're talking about and They were exposing this API for our Rails app to consume and But we had issues all along the way and it served to Increase the project length significantly Sometimes we'd have random null responses when we were supposed to get objects. There was random inconsistencies where we'd get weird symbols being printed out and Different formatting and in general is a catastrophe so it definitely lengthened the time to completion and this was a lot due to a failure on our part to you know test the API thoroughly so we couldn't express to them You know the problems we were having until we put it into production So this is one problem that could have been solved by testing first So now we're going to talk about a few problems I've had with external APIs and I'm sure all of you have encountered similar issues with APIs in the past So do we have any NHL fans in the house here? Yeah, Chicago Blackhawks doing pretty well in the playoffs so far. We'll see how they go I mean obviously they're gonna get crushed by the Kings and a few rounds here are the sharks possibly But we'll see I don't want to start a sports rivalry today So, you know this basically ranged from small annoyances to you know Major issues with this API So we'd have annoyances like this where some responses would come back with an ID for the team and others would come back with a code and in this case both of them refer to Anaheim So this is a minor annoyance you can code around that here We have an undocumented bug where basically the goals were all supposed to be as a part of an array But if you only had one goal it would be an object and sadly we discovered this one in production During a game so that wasn't ideal But worst of all after we had gone through all of the trouble of fixing these We realized that there was no versioning on this API so even if we fixed it We might be fixing it again a week later So this is basically what it felt like to work with their API So another project I worked on this is just kind of a fun side project was a snapchat API client so I could you know work with a snapchat private API and Well, one of these examples is extreme in that there was haphazard documentation or no documentation in this case I think we've all worked with API's that have improper documentation But in this case we didn't even know what the requests were so we had to figure that out There's also bizarre obfuscation Implanted inside of the app itself that basically encrypted on their iPhone So people like me couldn't go in and build things like this And there's a github link if you're curious So now that we've talked a little bit about why it's important and outlined some of the problems you might encounter We're gonna talk about how you're actually going to test these So first we need to ask ourselves. What is different about services than regular code that we're testing? Well, first of all we have external network requests that are being made and Second of all, you don't own the code so you can't really do unit testing on it It all has to be done from an integration test perspective So what I propose for your tests in general is that you turn airplane mode on This I find is the best way to think about your tests because first of all failure is really bad in testing and You shouldn't be making any network requests So I think of this kind of in two ways first of all so it's airplane mode in the test mode So you can't do these things, but also it should be a test that you can run on an airplane Basically meaning that if you're you know on a long transit Atlantic flight or in the RailsConf lobby you can still make your tests and And they won't fail because of network issues So this means you should not interact with your services from your testing environment And we have a few caveats, which I'll get into now So this includes dummy API's so there's some API makers that have their real API And then they have a fake API which you can hit with requests, but it doesn't make any changes to your data So you can't hit those because those are somewhere else on the network But I do allow you to make pre-recorded responses to those endpoints And that means you can record them within your test suite, which we'll get into in a bit more detail later So for these examples, I'm going to be assuming that you're using rails Obviously and that you're using our spec for simplicity sake So it's time to stub out these requests So when you're stubbing an object, you're basically for those who don't know It's basically putting like a fake object in front of that object So you're hitting that object instead of hitting the real one and you know saving time with like setup processes and stuff like that And we're doing a similar thing when you're stubbing a request to an endpoint Except we're saving a lot more time when we're doing so because we don't have to make that additional network request So there's some libraries that include it built-in stubbing. So type foeus if I pronounce that correctly Faraday and Xcon are three examples of pretty widely used HTTP libraries built on top of net HTTP I think That have built-in stubbing functionality But we can simplify this a little bit and use something called web mock which I'm sure many of you have worked with in the past Which is a general purpose stubbing library for your test suite So you don't have to learn each individual libraries stubbing methods So we'll take you through a quick example. Here's a basic spec helper Nothing really interesting about this except you have to include Disable net connect at the bottom the rest is boilerplate so I've highlighted that and Obviously with all these examples you should be putting the gem in your gem file Bundle installing before you start So when you put this in your code for the first time You'll get a really great error with this and I really like getting these errors because it tells me Exactly in my code where I'm making network requests. So if you're not already doing airplane mode tests You should just plug This disable net connect in and then you'll get this error Which will tell you where you're making these network requests And it also is really handy and it gives you actually the request you're making at the bottom so you can copy and paste that into Your test in order to stub it automatically and obviously you'll have to collect the body and the headers yourself If you need to use those as well So for the following examples, we're going to use probably the most face Sorry most simple Facebook wrapper ever invented basically all we're doing here is sending a get request to Facebook graph the public API for a user and what this does is it just returns like very basic Facebook information about you it has your Facebook username Your name and an ID and a few other fields and then what we're doing with user ID up at the top is We are just pulling out the value for key ID So this all it does is return your Facebook ID super super simple and Make sure since we're putting in a lib that you required at some point in your loading So now we're gonna look at a test for this So this is a test where we're not making a network request, but we're stubbing it out with web mock so at the bottom you can see we're doing our testing case and We're setting up an expectation that our user ID is equal to Arjun's user ID and I'm using Arjun because he was the maker of the Facebook graph API wrapper and You can see now above we are stubbing the request just like you'd stub an object We're setting the method of the HTTP request and then we're putting the link as the second argument Next we have to set up what it returns and this is just an HTTP response that we're returning So we want to put a status you can set headers which I generally don't do But if you're doing any operations with the headers, you should definitely set up these in your responses and the body we have a really simple JSON string I've cut out a few fields for brevity, but you can see it has an ID a first name and a username So this test will pass and we're also making no network work requests So the reasons it's better is it first of all, it's faster and We also aren't getting this intermittent failure that we were talking about earlier from the network requests So that's a good general way, but there's ways we can also save time with this So a lot of the really popular libraries for API wrappers also include mock services within themselves Or as an additional library on the side and they use that for you know internal testing with their gems So I recommend if if you can find one to use this before you go and use web mock because it'll save you a lot of time We'll take you through a quick example. So we're going to use Facebook graph mock here and All we are doing is putting it into spec helper We're just including the methods and requiring it pretty straightforward and now we're going to look at a spec so basically all we're doing is we're wrapping the test case within a Rapper that mocks out the request. So basically all this one's doing is saying we're sending a get request to Facebook graph backslash argin and then the third argument in this case is users are Jim public which is Where the JSON file of this response is located in the gem? So you can also specify your own Responses and I recommend you do that because I found actually some issues with the Facebook graph mock Mocking like responses have some outdatedness in them. So But this you know example I'm not going to take you through all of the gems that have this but this can go to show that There are some benefits that you get from using this. It's already stubbed for you you don't have to learn the API endpoints in order to use it and Some of these provide pre-recorded responses for your use So you don't have to go out and collect these so it's just a good way of saving time if you're using some popular libraries Next I'm going to take you through shamrack, which is one of my more Favorite ways of doing this. I kind of find this to be a fun way Basically, what shamrock does sorry shamrack does is it allows you to mount rack-based apps Which include rails and Sinatra and others and it allows you to make requests against these fake apps So in this case, we're going to get a little help from Sinatra in order to stub out these endpoints So spec help are the only thing interesting is that we leave in web mock pretty boring there But then we get to our fake So I usually just put this in spec support and then fake whatever it is in this case fake Facebook And this just means it'll be loaded when you run your specs automatically But it won't be obviously loaded into your production or staging environments or development So in this case at the top we can see we're calling shamrack And we're setting up the endpoint which we're hitting against which in this case is graph dot Facebook comm and 433 is just specifying that we're using the HDTPS SSL link and dot Sinatra just means we're going to be passing it in a Sinatra app So basically contained within this block is a Sinatra app And you can do virtually anything you can do with a regular Sinatra app, which is really cool So you can just you're just basically mounting this and testing against it So for those of you who don't use Sinatra very much All we're doing here is specifying with the get keyword that we're making a get request to Backslash something and just like rails when you run rake routes, you'll see the parameterization of things with the colon before it We're doing the exact same thing here with username So you'll see in the middle in the link we interpolate params username, and that's how you pull that out So this is essentially just returning a string that is this response You can obviously spice this up by setting status codes adding conditionals in here if you need some more dynamic power and also setting up the headers and You can also which I sometimes do this in my testing is back it with like a small yaml database So you can get some more realistic data than just a simple string So that's the response and Now when we're writing our spec for sham rack all we're doing is Keeping it on this base level. We don't have to wrap it with anything because it will automatically in your tests Pick up the fact that you have sham rack mounted and it will automatically hit against that endpoint Rather than hitting against the network So you might ask why is this better? I think there are a few reasons first. I find it more dynamic. I Find it more expressive as well And you can really you know add as much functionality you need to test your integrations As you want and you can also back it with yaml if you need, you know some pre-population of you know real data And it's also more readable. Let's go back to this for a second and you can see like Reading through this is a lot easier to parse through and you know where the API requests are being made to Versus the stubbing we showed in the first example with the web mock is a little bit hard to read So that's why I prefer to use this So next we're going to talk about VCR, which is a pretty widely used gem and this one has some other benefits But I think are really important to use basically it pre-records your responses and We'll take you through an example so Spec Helper only thing interesting here We have the VCR configuration block and all we're doing is setting a cassette library. So that's basically where these Responses will be saved and then we're hooking into web mock because that's a stubbing library. We're using So here's a spec and As you can see it's really really similar to the Facebook graph mock so basically what this does is you're wrapping it in a block with VCR so VCR what it does is it goes out to the network and makes a request for you in your testing environment and It pulls that response back and saves it in this case at Facebook user Arjen and The nice thing about this is you don't have to go out and collect your own Responses which I find to be pretty tedious and also error prone but it also means you don't have to Break airplane mode with your test because you can run this before and you can cache all of the JSON responses and play them back in your build So when you're running it on Travis CI or circle or whatever you happen to use You're not going to break your build because of network failure. You're going to be using these cache responses and that also Just allows you to verify the responses. So like I mentioned, it's a little error prone I've tried collecting these responses on my own and you know Sometimes I copy and paste them wrong and come up with an issue So this kind of allows you to like have a nice programmatic way of pulling those in So there's also an additional build process you can add so for the NHL example I talked about the problem was there was no versioning so what you can do is if you want bonus points and You're really dependent on an API that doesn't have vernet versioning You can do some kind of build process or you know test setup where you're basically running it outside of your normal test mode and you check the cassettes for diffs and Verify the three responses are not changed from before so this can help you avoid versioning issues So I recommend that if you're using something like NHL API so the next one we're going to briefly talk about is puffing Billy and Aside from having a really cool name and a nice logo on their github This is an interesting gem to use. We're not going to use an example here But basically what it is is for in browser requests So basically if you're having integrations that are browser based you can record and reuse Just like vcr and use those responses again So I don't want you guys to think that all of this has to be done in a ruby and that you have to Use vcr to first record your responses. There's a lot of tools out there that will help you To collect these responses test API endpoints faster, and I want to share some of those with you so Chrome dev tools has anyone heard of this in here? Yeah, probably probably all of you But this is the first one I'm mentioning because I use it probably every day Obviously it gives you a really nice way of you know viewing responses and requests and resending them So super useful. I'm not going to get too far in depth in that one because I'm assuming most people worked with it But it doesn't hurt to mention So next postman if you want to stay within Chrome This is an extension you can use and it basically gives you a user interface around running these requests So that you can have kind of an easier way to play with Request and responses and allows you to save them. It gives you you know a time and milliseconds of completion and this one I think is I was working on a Tender API client for fun. So That's what these requests are for so that one's actually up on my github too if you're curious So I use that a lot But if you like to stay a command line based I would recommend HTTP it's basically an easier to use version of curl and It doesn't have like quite the archaic syntax curl has so I think it's you know worthy worthy of use and You know be easier obviously to run a script around this than it would be to run around postman So if you need to do something more programmatic, this is probably your best option and one last tool I really like to use is called Charles and Charles does a lot of the same things as Chrome dev tools does but it acts as a proxy. So it basically captures You know requests between you and your network. So you can set this up to capture any requests from your Mac machine or you can proxy in your phone as well So I found this really valuable when I was testing out the requests from the snapchat client because it allowed me to see what my phone was making for requests and record those and especially when we didn't know what the request was is very helpful in that case and It's it's also cool because you know when you're building an API on Ruby And you want to build an iOS client with it and you're not really sure how often to pull and stuff I sometimes pull this up and I'll just see what other apps are doing So it's a good way of debugging other people's work and you know seeing how they're doing it. Well, so I Highly recommend you check it out. It's pretty easy to use and you can use it with SSL requests as well So here's some additional reading. I know you won't have time to write this all down.  So We went over the what the why and the how of testing services So we've shown that testing services is crucial. They make up really important parts of your app So skipping tests is pretty dangerous. I'd have to say if you're in doubt stub it out Determine when you're making choices between, you know, web mock sham rack or Puffing billy even you want to determine the amount of flexibility you need and the amount of extra work You're going to have for example it probably takes more time to make a sham rack server and have dynamic responses then copying and pasting the request you get from The web mock error so you kind of just need to look at the project you have and determine what use case best fits these options and Also record responses to save time. I wish I would have started doing this sooner. It's like super useful I would highly recommend you do that And next up after me I'd recommend you stick around I had a pleasure of pairing with Austin yesterday And I think his talk plays off my talk a lot in that it Talks a lot about inconsistent test failures and he goes a lot more in-depth on you know other kinds of inconsistent test failures and You just should definitely stick around if you have the time So that's it for today. Thank you for taking the time to listen to my talk And if I don't get to your question, feel free to shoot me an email or if you just want to chat And you can also find me on Twitter. So thanks a lot guys


This study proposes a hybrid approach combining random forest and texture analysis to improve the accuracy of urban vegetation mapping from unmanned aerial vehicles, UAV. The study found that random forest outperforms traditional maximum likelihood classifier and performs similarly to object-based image analysis. Additionally, the inclusion of texture features improves classification accuracy significantly. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that the accuracy of urban vegetation mapping follows an inverted U-relationship with texture window size. This article was authored by Kwamong Fong, Jantel Lu, and Jantwa Gong.


Hello everyone! Just a quick addendum to our Why Daisy is Not in Mario Stryker's Battle League football video from a few weeks ago. She is now confirmed for the game, she'll be added as free DLC on the 21st of July in North America and the 22nd of July in Europe. Daisy is not alone, Shy Guy will also be added to the game as well as new night gear and a new stadium called Desert Ruin. We pretty much all saw this coming, but just felt like it was something that we should let you know. Don't forget to check out our slightly longer video about Daisy's origin and why Nintendo doesn't give her star building, there's a link in the description. The moral of the story? Sometimes, very, very occasionally, it's actually possible to predict what Nintendo is going to do next.


Very good morning. It's Tuesday the 14th of September. I hope you are doing well What I'm going to talk about in the briefing this morning I'm going to talk about the US stock market snapped a five-day slide yesterday We finished in positive territory for the S&P in the Dow albeit the Nasdaq pretty flat overall We're going to talk a little bit about the future then for the equity market direction in the US There's been growing calls as we discussed last week from a variety of different banks talking about the ideas of the Negative stacking up and the fact that we could well see a bit of a short-term pullback for equity markets So I wanted to just have a look at a few things that I found from a Deutsche Bank survey That was released yesterday to give you a bit of context as to where heads are at as an overall Wall Street view at the moment and also going to talk about JP Morgan's outlook for US equities because they're bringing back this idea of Coming out of tech and rotating back more into those names Exposed to the economic performance because in summary they see the co vid Situation in the US as a short-term issue and something that we will get over in the near term Otherwise other things to quickly talk about we're going to touch upon Powell's reappointment Obviously that is still an open question at this point, but some backing from some senior figures Last night in the US which we can talk about UK booster shots Storm Nicholas which is help keeping oil prices elevated at the moment as well as just having an update on that as well So yeah as the headline here suggests US stocks first day They've gone up in five energy companies led the gains as WTI crude actually extended this rally to a six-week high Just having a look at crude futures this morning You can see really nice Continuous move that we've seen really since the second half of last week when we're training a 67 handle We're now training up in a 71 mark for the time being and up 58 cents again this morning having just Traded above in the overnight APAC session yesterday's high print on the daily chart You can see that from a technical perspective the breakout above then the early September highs then does mean that from the upside Not too much in a way of resistance till we get up closer towards the 72 dollar handle Which would be that high that we had on the daily print on the 3rd of August at 71 76 Continuation of the rebound that we've been seeing in crude since the 23rd of August when we hit that initial low And so probably prudent then to have a quick update on why oil is moving like it is and OPEC predicts a stronger demand for its crude on a Convent combination of rising global fuel consumption and output disruptions elsewhere One of those main things of course that we're tracking at the moment is storm Nicholas So the oil industry overall has been struggling a little bit to get back on its feet following hurricane Ida Now to be clear in terms of a weather pattern and its intensity Ida is far more Stronger than what we've seen from Nicholas so far But the point is is where we're starting from as this latest weather system hits the Gulf Coast And that's because analysts suggest that roughly 44% of capacity was still offline and Efforts now to restore that output have been compounded by the emergence of this new tropical storm Nicholas Hitting the Texas Gulf Coast as you can see pretty much right on the coastal line at the moment So heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi Through the middle of this week and that's just helping keep Crude oil prices elevated for the time being otherwise in the commodity space I'm selling we were talking about a few weeks ago as aluminium The industrial metal now reaching 3000 a ton in London first time it's done that in 13 years Amid ongoing supply disruptions from Guinea And then in terms of the Asian session as I mentioned then we did actually finish generally positive for the first day And five for the S&P in Dowl They were up a quarter and three quarters of 1% each respectively And that did kind of drip through into the age of pack session where The Nikkei 225 as you can see here is on track for its highest closed since 1990 you can see here going all the way back to this initial peak that we saw in the late 80s So it continues to remain firm latest trigger being of course Suga saying he was going to step down and the idea then a bit more continuity more fiscal firepower Coming and obviously in context as well of the ongoing loose accommodative central bank stance for monetary policy Elsewhere though in the region of Asia China wavered slightly People still evaluating the troubles of China ever grand group and also Beijing's kind of latest regulatory curbs that we saw with Alipay We should spoke about yesterday Meanwhile over elsewhere in Australia the latest here is from the RBA chief Philip Lowe Who pushed back against investor bets on early interest rate increases arguing it will take some time to drive faster wage growth? Riterating that he doesn't see or expect lift off by the first rate increase and before 2024 the Aussie little bit softer just trending lower overnight more broadly speaking down 16 pips going into the European Open the other thing then just quickly talking about COVID in that region a new local COVID-19 infections have more than doubled in China's southeastern province of Fujian Health authorities have said overnight prompting officials to quickly roll out measures including travel restrictions to halt that spread of the virus Timing wise worth being aware from a seasonal perspective The infections come ahead of a week-long national day holiday starting on October 1 which is a major tourist season for the country and obviously this coming at possibly the worst time for that event to happen from a tourist perspective and On the COVID side just a quick look elsewhere geographically in the US a little bit more positive in the developments that we've been seeing Hence the reason why it has been generating fewer headlines in the more and more mainstream media and that's because COVID-19 hospitalizations have remained Below a hundred thousand for a third day running for the first time in more than three weeks as of yesterday Further sign then the summer wave may well have peaked in several of those states Which were obviously seeing quite aggressive upticks just a few weeks ago. So that risk dissipating a little bit but one of the things I wanted to talk about a little bit was the US stock market because We've had a number of banks getting bearish I've actually had a number of students asking me, you know, is the stock market gonna pop and we're gonna see a decent correction to the Downside what type of probability would we assign to that type of price movement occurring? and quite timely Deutsche Bank did a Investor sentiment survey and so here's what we're looking at here as a few different graphics I can I can kind of cycle through So they were asked then Basically, what's the chance that you see of a of a pullback in equities and the bar first bar here is Yes, I think there will be and it will be between the size of five and ten percent terms of an S&P pullback 58% of people held that view of quite a wide investor survey that was conducted by Deutsche Yes, but more than 10% so people who are looking for a much more aggressive correction plus type move Technically speaking in the market was the least Popular view and then no there won't be a correction before year-end and we keep going now The reason why this is growing in conversation is really because of this chart and that's a reminder then that the Basically the S&P 500 has not had a 5% drawdown since October of 2020 and Typically when we start to see that type of lack of drawdown in the market it kind of builds up Manifests itself into quite an episode of volatility at some point Hard to say what the timing of that will be but markets rarely Remain without a 5% pullback for long and the longer it goes on then ultimately the higher we've gone the bigger The consequent pullback might be when it does occur So hence the reason why a lot of this bearish conversation is happening and then Deutsche were looking even more specifically that a net of just 14% See the S&P 500 higher in three months and as far as the year goes That's the second lowest reading in a year for people who are more bullish essentially in terms of where we're going to end The year so a couple of things there that I thought are quite interesting Flipping a slightly different angle, but still US stocks. This is coming out of JP Morgan strategist who basically was saying That the growth scared at prompting investors to seek safety and technology companies is Overdone as the economic drag from the Delta corona virus variant is likely short-lived And the strategist at JP added investors should consider cutting exposure to tech stocks while raising Stakes in economically sensitive companies like energy now Logically that makes sense and we are seeing of course US COVID coming down, but still very much a global issues to see the complete more Tempered control, let's say given the lack of vaccinations across much of the undeveloped world As well as case rates still high and in countries like UK and so on albeit with vaccination still ongoing and immunity rising The point being here is that I think these calls if you remember probably three months ago people were talking about the end of tech and We should be bailing on that and rotating into growth names I'd just like to remind people that that call at that time from these banks was was ill-timed it was bad timing because if anything growth stocks really just kicked on and So now comes the question is this the right time for me I Still think it's a little early to be making that switch But again, I guess that's where the opportunity comes if you're early into that position and you get your timing, right Obviously to pay off much bigger But I still think that there's a few Complications here still to to go through from the COVID situation particularly as we go through In a calendar year period of where temperatures Definitely in the Western Hemisphere start to decrease as well Be interested to see how how those developments pan out. So, yeah, I think logically makes sense Don't have any issue with the ration now. I just think timing perhaps touch early for me personally, but who am I to? Contest the mighty JP Morgan. Let's see who wins Otherwise a quick look then at some other things I wanted to talk about and we're gonna move over to Jerome Powell and The reason why we're talking about Jerome Powell is former Democratic Senator Chris Dodd and representative Barney Frank Now if you've never heard of those names in terms of their full names in their kind of titles You might have heard them in regards to the Dodd Frank Bank Reform Act in America that got inaction and The reason why this is quite interesting is that these guys have said that Jerome Powell's Reappointment would provide quote strong support For President Joe Biden's comprehensive program for tackling the underlying social and economic problems challenging the US at the moment Now their support is particularly noteworthy because a number of progressors have criticized Jerome Powell For rolling back some of the reforms that were initially initiated through the Dodd Frank legislation and called on Biden to replace him as Fed Chair, but now you're getting the the actual originators of that act themselves are giving their backing to Powell and that will kind of Silence the naysayers I would say so for me. I think Powell is pretty much a shoe-in at this point I can't really see anything else anyone else stepping into that role for the time being I think would be a surprise for markets So obviously markets will tend to like that idea of continuity and so forth Final thing for the UK to talk about was that we are expected to hear an update from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson later today To confirm that booster vaccinations against coronavirus will be rolled out to the most vulnerable people this fall This comes contradictory to some studies We were seeing yesterday about the fact and idea that the vaccines are kind of good enough And we should be distributing these to other parts of the world which are unvaccinated even by one shot at this point But nonetheless, I definitely, you know, think that when push comes to shove Nations will typically look to take care of themselves And this I think doesn't come as a surprise the UK government has been saying that this was going to be the strategy anyway It comes after the government said on Monday that 12 to 15 year olds in England will be offered a single shot of the Pfizer Biotech vaccine in schools as well from next week And that's obviously going to be very important because if you wanted to have a look at some statistics about the impact of Schools reopening of which is the end of August now The kids are going back to school The impact that that can have on the consequent new trigger of a wave that we could see according to some Mathematicians and people doing the modeling in the weeks and months to come So hence the strategy to try and get some of those students vaccinated The other thing today and we do have Apple they're hosting their event. It's called California streaming It's what they've dubbed it. It's going to be a 6 p.m. London time when that starts I think Apple shares did see a decent move higher outperforming the broader nasdaq index yesterday Quite typical. We tend to see this kind of buy the rumor sell the fact because a lot of the stuff that comes out It's highly anticipated and very rarely is there any surprises at these new product launch events and quick skinny the iPhone 20 Hertz promotion displays are expected if improvements for the camera and a 15 chip Which means the faster 5g battery life improvements this massively innovative change Going to take that notch make it a tiny bit smaller These are all things that we can expect from the the iPhone 13 they also got Apple watch series 7 expecting the first Design update in quite a while the Apple watch expect to feature smaller bezels and a flat edged Design much like the new phones have in the latest models with a faster chip and new wireless capabilities And then air pods threes it's you to come out pretty similar Anticipated to be what the airport pros look like But just without active noise cancellation meaning that they can be cheaper So you still look the part, but the actual product's not as good I'm sure they'll get a good good amount of volume on the sales of those going forward given their lower price point That's anticipated for that product So that's Apple six o'clock that starts kicking off if you're looking at the single stock and then Probably from a calendar perspective We've already had a couple of UK data points come out this morning So let me just get you up to speed and I can fill you in how how that came out just now So the UK average earnings X bonus 6.8% was in line with expectations the unemployment rate 4.6% also in line as well so not too much fluctuation in the Stirling currency which at the moment both currency pairs are being buoyed by a softening dollar The dollar index now this morning into the European session is trading down Moderately about one-tenth, but it's broken through yesterday's low That's exacerbated some of the weakness in the greenback and as such then you can see a bit of an elevated move on a technical break up here in the euro through the high from Yesterday afternoon and the APAC Asia high you've just seen a fast-money move right up to the R1 on the on the move there Otherwise the other products are fairly quiet the 10-year gold pretty sideways Just a little bit of fatigue from that run-up in US equities yesterday And of course the main event for today is US CPI and that's going to be at 130 probably one of the main data points of the week And here it is. This is what we're looking at so These are the last well, this is the last two decades of US CPI and here we are at the moment in this latest kind of pandemic Squeeze that we've been seeing creating inflationary pressures So a few things here to be aware of it's expected to show an annual pace of inflation of 5% or more for a fourth month the actual year-in-year reading is expected at 5.3% And this follows a report last week which showed the producer price index the PPI for final demand rose to a fresh series High as persistent supply chain disruptions continue to push prices higher One of the things that people are looking at for today's reading is on a month-to-month basis price increases have those somewhat Moderated but the focus is shifting now to whether sectors beyond those most sensitive to pandemic related disruptions Are starting to register higher gains? So kind of like what Piers and I were talking about the podcast we did on the market maker on Friday is Is this if you think about over in China where they've got COVID disruptions Imports and manufacturing commodity price spikes that we're seeing pushing up the cost of goods the US then Importing those price pressures consequently then moving that down to the consumer and as overall then actually Inflation proving to be a little bit more sticky in that sense And this all course plays into the mindset of the federal reserve Policy makers and their decision over tapering. So it's going to be quite a key event for the week it's coming out 130 today and Could well be although we're seeing a bit of a drift south and some of the US stock futures as Europe comes in Could well be fairly tame price action as the market will want to assume this has to certain degree and wait for those numbers to hit later Otherwise that is really the main thing Some supply coming out any fixed income traders Italy UK and a German Shats auction this morning And then that is it so kind of leave it there. Let you guys get on with the day Thank you for listening if you're watching on YouTube and you're not subscribed to the channel Please do and you can get these updates from me every morning as well as some other content coming out as well Later on today on the channel. All right. Take care guys and have a good one


The amphibious transport dock ship pre-commissioning unit Arlington arrived at its new home port of Naval Station Norfolk March 22nd. The ship was welcomed by the Arlington County first responders. Actually I never knew we'd be welcomed back like this. I expected something very simple and I was taken back for what I saw and I'm very honored to have seen it. Having a ship named Arlington, just make sure we never forget the attacks that happened on 9-11. 9-11 is always remembered by New York. But it's not just New York, it was Arlington County and Somerset County. And having Arlington and Somerset named makes it a complete way to remember 9-11. From the Defense Media Activity I'm Petty Officer Amara Timberlake.


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