Welcome to this meeting. My name is Maria Elena Barras. I lead the food action alliance and country and regional partnerships in the food system team at the World Economic Forum. On behalf of all of us at the forum, we would like to welcome you to this meeting on galvanizing game changers for the future of food. Today's session has one very clear objective. We would like to deliver concrete game changing initiatives that will accelerate systemic transformation and deliver action on the ground. Leveraging the international momentum that we have towards the 2021 food system summit, which offers the runway for action at deadline for results in a stronger position to act together. This session will have three parts in opening panel, which will be live streamed. A second section following where participants will divide into assigned breakout groups per region for deep dive discussion in rich interactive dialogue on delivering game changers around the globe. The third and final section, we will come back into plenary for a closing panel on the pathways for action and next steps. Before we begin, just a few housekeeping rules, we encourage all participants to stay on video for being muted while not speaking. Although we will not have questions during the opening panel, we do want you to share your thoughts and questions using the chat function. So we encourage you to do that. We will have the opportunity for a lively and interactive dialogue during the breakout discussions. We encourage your active participation there. For technical assistance, please reach our staff that will, his contact is in our chat. With that, it is now my pleasure to introduce you to the moderator of the opening panel on setting the context on the future of food, Mr. Viva Dreyer, Chairman of the Managing Board of Rebel Bank. The live streaming will commence now. Mr Dreyer, the floor is all yours. Thank you, Mary-Lena, for us for the opening and the introduction, and thank you all for being with us. Especially, of course, the people in our panel that will join in this conversation at the start of this important session where we will explore what it actually takes to get to action to move to a more sustainable food supply to the planet. I'm honored to do this. It will be somewhat delayed in our start and therefore I will keep my introduction as short as possible so that our speakers have all the opportunity to express their views and respond to each other's points in the conversation. But let me underscore the importance of this session and the subject itself. It's quite obvious to all of you, because you've joined in, that transitioning the global food supply to feed around 10 billion people in 2050 in a sustainable way is a crucial challenge that is all the more important than that. We've had through the focus on climate, on CO2 reductions, on biodiversity and on social equality, these parts of the SDGs, we've had all the attention there. And food has been in the background of many of the SDGs and it's crucial that we in the year to come take the opportunity to address this head on and explore what and how food ought to change so that we can feed the world sustainably towards 2050. And with me, I have these fantastic panelists coming from all parts of the world that have this important relationship to the subject and I'm so glad that you're here. Maria, Juliana and Ruiz, First Lady of Colombia. Your Excellency, thank you for being with us at this very early hour in your beautiful country. We're so happy that you're with us and I do hope that we all enjoy your contributions. We also have Agnes Calibata, the UN Special Envoy for the United Nations Food Systems Summit. I think in my world everybody knows Agnes, but I'm not sure that everybody online now knows her and Agnes we're very happy that you're here. You play such an important role for the Food Summit for next year. Then we have with us Chilbert Fossum-Ombu, President, International Fund for Agricultural Development, IFAT, based out of Italy. Chilbert, I'm again very glad to see you. You know that, but we are also very glad that you're here and we look forward to your contributions. Then we have Estrella Benunia, the Asian Farmers Association for Sustainable Rural Development, AFA, on the Philippines and thank you for being with us. It's so good that we can connect in this virtual world. Before we start, there is obviously the COVID-19 crisis raving and I've been asked many times how this affects the transition to a more sustainable food supply as if that challenge is not sort of a fade away. I'd just like to leave you with one thought, which is this, that many of the world's greatest system changes have happened at the back end of a crisis when there was a free mind to think. A free mind to think how a change can be shaped more fundamentally against all odds. I think we're in that phase of COVID-19. We know it's still raving around, but we do have now the time to reflect on the substantial change that food requires for the world. And with that mindset, I would love each of our speakers to maybe respond one-on-one to an opening question, but by that give their room to speak in a focused manner. And bear in mind that we might be speaking to many people that have not been in this issue all of their lives. And therefore, it was also something that we like to invite them into this important conversation. Dr. Kalibata, Agnes, for friends, can we start with you? The UN Secretary General has announced the Food Systems Summit is a solution summit. It needs to be focused on change and action. In your view as a special envoy to that summit, a crucial role in the design of the program, what does success look like for that summit, as you would phrase it, Agnes? Thank you. I just want to make sure that you can hear me very well. You can hear you well. I can also see you. Very good. Thank you. So thank you for the question. Like you said, the Secretary General launched the Food Systems Summit last year. And this year, we are in the preparatory process. For me, success looks like three things. We have to build consensus among all of us globally. We have such a population of 7.5 billion people, all of us eat every day. It's extremely important for us to understand that how we produce food, how we access food, how food is added value to, how we consume food are all very important decisions that impact and influence our food system. So for me, the most important thing, if we can build consensus among all of us, that the decisions we make every day when we take food are very critical to our food system is extremely important. So my role number one is to ensure that we build that consensus. So number two, we need to ensure that this summit becomes a people's summit that it reaches everybody and we are putting in place two types of dialogue. There's a dialogue that is happening through countries at country level, and there's a dialogue that is going to happen through champions, people that already believe in the needed change of the food system that we have. So those types of dialogues are very critical to ensure that we bring people into the conversation and make sure that whether it's the work we are doing with the science of the summit because you have a scientific group that is working on the science of the summit. Whether it's the work we are doing through action tracks that is looking at game changing initiatives, which many of you are part of already looking at game changing initiatives and really trying to understand that those initiatives are not meant for 10 million people. But for billions of people out of there, 690 million people need food, those initiatives going to reach them, the people that have dietary challenges, those initiatives going to reach them are going to be able to reduce waste with these initiatives. Anyway, ensuring that these conversations happen at all levels of society through the dialogues we've designed is very, very important. The third one is all these conversations will be useless if we can't translate them into solutions and commitments to do things differently. And we are going to try to, we will make sure we get commitments at state level, government level, at country level, but we also need to get commitments at community level. We also need to get commitments at individual level. This is something we all need personally to commit to. Our food system will not change if we cannot individually commit to that change. So I just wanted you said that many of the people here may not have had an opportunity to interact with the food system summit before. So all here today is to make sure that you find ways of connecting with the food system summit through the dialogues at country level, through the dialogues in a box that we are putting online, through the youth engagements, through the champions, through any form, but through the action tracks. We need to find ways of engaging and ensure that your voice is heard, but also ensure you do something different so that when we come to this summit this next year, we actually have tangible commitments. We have actually raised ambition enough to turn around where our world is going. So that's that's that's what success would look like for me. Thank you very much Agnes and and people summit that is almost a success, they're guaranteed because much of the contact has already started before the summit very nice and action oriented. Maybe if I turn to President Humboldt, given your role in the summit and your championship in the food action alliance, very action oriented alliance. How can we best mobilize the public private partnerships to support for to support system transformations at country level. I think your lens is very much on how can we make it happen at the country level in your mind. Thank you so much. Good morning. Good afternoon to all of you. How can we really make this happen? We will have to be pragmatic. We know that the full system summit there is a process to wait that you know international process as we know to. However, it's going to be important that practitioners that we have. We really look at what is happening today on the on the ground. This is where the different platform and the actions and the initiative that several of us are having on the ground come to play. And it's going to be important in the next coming month, if not weeks to know what have been the lesson learned from the different actions that is happening in the ground. And based on those lessons, what can we extrapolate? What can we therefore put to scale and bring them as lesson learned either through the action tracks or through the dialogue that address refer to bring them to the summit, which is one. The second point is also given the fact that we have several initiatives at one point if at all possible. And I believe West could play a good role in that is to be able to compare notes. If Robert is having an action in certain countries, if I deserve some actions in a different country, is there some commonality there is some kind of cross fertilization, then we can join our force together and bring that that up. Thirdly, it's going to be fairly, I mean, that is not necessarily new, but I really want to repeat this. It's going to be quite important, the role of the private sector. And therefore, how do we make sure that the private sector is very well represented and has its say. So we really need to combine to the dialogue and other actions. There's a communication side. I'm sure most of you here are those that are listening to us. They are really convinced about the need to have the private sector on the table. However, we shouldn't take that for granted. We do still have a lot of colleagues and stakeholders that I think that you know the traditional cliche that the private sector did the private sector is that we really need to also make sure we communicate that the role that the private sector has to play there and giving concrete example, maybe through the action, have the complementarity about the private sector, the public sector. A typical example for me is the fact that we know that the private sector of course can provide financing, but sometimes we tend to forget that the private sector can provide also knowledge that others do not necessarily have. And sometimes the private sector to be able to breathe to be again a changer need to ensure that the policy environment is also addressed. That's where the multilateral and the government, the public side come to play. So those are the very three points that I want to make sure how we can proceed with that. Thank you. Thank you, President Humboldt. Can I turn to maybe different than the order that you might expect? Maria Julia Ruiz, your Excellency, First Lady of Columbia, we're so glad that you're here. And I would love to hear, as we are all inspired by the changes that take shape, Columbia has a strong potential to become a breadbasket for the world, a potential that is so much promising. And we know that various initiatives are taking place to advance food security, nutrition, environmental sustainability, reducing the carbon emissions, amongst others, and in many you are involved. How can a multistakeholder action support the Columbia's plan and vision for food systems to be achieved and to achieve all the SDGs? We are looking forward to your inspirational experience so early in your morning. Greetings to all the panelists and participants in this great event. Thank you so much. Well, I would have to say and start by saying that I'm a partnerships believer. And as Columbia's First Lady, I decided to shape my role in the light of the SDG 17. That's partnerships for the goals. And I did it calling up on two major capacities that identify this responsibility that are advocacy and convening. They more or less say, multi-sectoral action. So now I have the honor to serve the country as Goodwill Ambassador for SDG 17. And that, as I say, is because I truly embrace the value of multi-stakeholder partnerships that bring together that private sector that you were mentioning. The businesses, the governments, the civil society, academia, international sector and co-international cooperation. And from my work, I've been actually focusing my flagships on nutrition. And that's from a very personal and holistic perspective with two lines of action of nourishing the body and nourishing the soul. And I've been doing that under a government umbrella, which is the great Alliance for Nutrition that was launched last year in which actors from different sectors summon so we can expand the micronutrients offer for pregnant moms, nursing mother, children's and adolescents. And the main aim and get the goal was to contribute to their cognitive and physical development. And that Alliance has something really important. And what I'm sharing now with you is what you were saying before. We need to understand we have to pass and move on from ideas, from proposals to concrete actions. So this National Alliance, what did was that set up two major goals that was really impacting, hopefully not only diminishing but eradicating malnutrition in children. And the second one was strengthening food security at home. That those two goals are already a chain, a step by step.  And that has been for me an incredible successful case that has also been combined with another extraordinary opportunity that I had in my capacity that is to participate at the Columbia's Interceptual Commission on Food Security and Nutrition. And that for me, as I said, is a great example of success of multi-sectoral work towards one specific purpose. Since all its members now work has been so accurate from my perspective that we have shown a significant decrease in the malnutrition indicator in children. And speaking of a number of about 45% diminished in this malnutrition indicator compared to last year, which is incredible at the light of the pandemic. And this is because we were engaged in working together from a collaborative, positive and active perspective. And something that I would like to highlight as well that is also relevant at the light of this commission is the formulation of the national policy for prevention and reduction of food losses and waste. This for me is so relevant because somehow engages the whole food system to intervene the processes and generate contributions to make them sustainable. So I do believe we have lots of challenges of steel, but if we are able to coordinate different sectors to understand we can commit and act from our different roles to one main purpose, our story will be different. Now with the case of food losses and waste, we have a tremendous challenge and is to really articulate the actors of all the stages of the food system at the territorial level, considering the particularities of a country as Colombia, which is full of regions. We have six different regions that are completely different, one from each other. So I do believe that's a key element to understand that all of us, we can really make a specific contribution in this case as we're doing in Colombia. On nutrition for specific SDG goals, on prevention and reduction of food waste and losses on SDG 12.3, I believe we do have the target. So we do need to understand that much of the effort of national, local, international development actor right now focuses directly or indirectly on generating institutional mechanisms for nutrition and zero hunger. But I do believe that we also need to amplify the spectrum and however the current environmental and social context requires greater responsibilities. We do have to have a greater response and capacity to radical transformation of paradigms and ultimately the whole capacity for social and economic reinvention. And I can finalize without saying that even at the light of COVID pandemic, there are two words that premiere essential and key element for reinvention. We proved and we were proved that we are interconnected. Thus, we must be responsible. That for me is a practical and a concrete solution. Thank you for giving that vivid and passionate introduction against early in your morning but I think the case of Colombia is one that we should all be inspired by by the level of change that it materializes and how much it's an example of system change where all actors come together. Thank you so much for that introduction. I do want to give time also to Mrs. Panuña who has a special role as an advisory committee of the Food Systems Summit. May I ask you take a lens on the farmers. How can we empower the farmers to get the center and providing solutions in co shaping an agenda for food system transformation with a lens on farmers and I guess more broadly than just one country. And maybe can you leave your introduction really short because otherwise will be hurt by the principle of online conferencing which is that the end time is fixed. So please keep your introduction short. Yes. Thank you very much. Thank you to World Economic Forum for giving us this opportunity the space to also voice our our interest and our our agenda. So what we want to say is that first of all but very short alpha is a regional farmers organizations we have 13 million small scale women and men family farmers in 16 countries not in Asia. And what we want to say is that in the whole discourse on food systems now we can say that farmers usually farmers are viewed as victims as victims because we are most affected by climate change by all the brokenness of this food system. But what we also also want to say is that we are solution providers. So when the president talked about the private sector we can say that as a as a agro patient that family farmers are the biggest private sector because we invest in agriculture that tools that knowledge the work that we do. And so we have solutions because we especially when we are grouped together as organizations and cooperatives we can consolidate our finances like one peso contribution can mean millions if we are big. And also we have knowledge so our cooperatives especially can act as private sector can go into production value addition marketing and distribution. In during COVID one very concrete example as a solution provider is that an all women family farmers cooperative of indigenous community established a partnership with an urban poor neighborhood to have a farmer market in that way the urban poor neighborhood who are locked down are able to have a supply of fresh food local food from the from the farming community. So we sustainable food systems we are to be sustainable we always would like to have this message to involve family farmers through their organizations and cooperatives as equal partners not just beneficiaries of programs and services of foundations or If we have partnership with family farmers as as equal partners so we can we can join together in solutions that that provide rights to farmers over lands and natural resources that promote sustainable agriculture that promotes cooperatives that partnerships between co-op family farmers and consumers and that and that promotes policies that advocates for policies with government so that policies will be favorable to family farmers and if policies are favorable to family farmers then young farmers will be attracted or the youth will be attracted to farming so this all we think is our contribution as family farmers to the work on sustainable food system. Thank you. Thank you very much from from the Philippines so we've covered the globe. We've also covered the time and what I thought was exciting about the introductions of all of you and of course we had to sort of piece it together in a quick half hour is that I think Agnes as the organizer of the conference that the food summit next year articulated that this ought to be a people's summit as you said where consensus is built around great lines of attack a change where where game changing experiments will be scaled up. And so thank you for bringing that thought and and I think what's what President Honbu then said is, by all means, if this is going to be relevant at the country level, this ought to be practical. And we need to make sure that we learn from working initiatives and scale them up. And we need to ensure that the private sector steps to the plate. So that's a challenge of that lens into the conference as well. And then Maria was from Columbia. First lady of Columbia so eloquently illustrated that it can be done. If you look at the success that Columbia is playing so a flagship case is where she said, if you take subjects like nutrition and food security. You can make it happen if you link up the real partnerships and collaborate. And Columbia has been such a good example of that in recent years that we should all celebrate and take as an example also to the summit. And finally, Mrs, particularly that that we ought to make sure that the farmer becomes the hero of the change ahead and not as a problem but as part of the solution, where if the farmer can do this, we have the key to the change that lies ahead so in a sense we've quickly the Rubik's cube of creating a food system change to to the world that we need to do because 10 billion people need to be fed sustainably in 2015 that requires action at the country level that requires action at the actors level private sector farmers, and it requires at a number action at a number of thematic levels, such as nutrition and favorable circumstances. I think that is our challenge together I hope you've enjoyed the introductions of these speakers I apologize for not having had a second round of questions. But that that is because the subject is so rich in your first round of introductions thank you for being with us I hope that the balance of this sustainability development impact summit online will bring you even more foods of insight, and as Agnes said so eloquently. That brings the conclusion of the summit of next year ahead of the summit. Thank you for joining us and Maria over to you.


Good afternoon, this is Senate Judiciary 1245 p.m. on the 12th of May. We're discussing a Letter of intent to the governor from representative grad myself regarding the use of force bill S1 H 145 and the sections having to do with Citizens right to defend oneself When you've prepared a document for us to look at I believe and perhaps Are you able to share it on the screen or oh, yes, I can definitely share it. I just sent it to Peggy, but She probably just hasn't gotten it yet. So I'll share my screen by the way, this is Senate Judiciary. We're joined by Representative grad and represent Blumann from the House Judiciary community as well as Jennifer Morrison representing Department of Public Safety. So, Brynn, you've got the letter. Yep, so can everybody see this the letter on their screen? Yes Okay so this draft letter is to respond to the letter that you've received from The governor on May 11th regarding their comes the administration's concerns with H 145 and specifically the Justifiable homicides changes in that in that bill. So this letter essentially provides that There is a common law there are common law defenses of self-defense and defense of others and that second paragraph There outlines how the court has analyzed those common law defenses and what the requirements are for them and The letter is pretty straightforward. It just provides that those common law defenses, which the court has found Exists and can be raised by a person who intervenes when there is a Violent crime happening Those offenses are available to be raised and each one 45 doesn't change that fact it doesn't Eliminate those defenses at the common law and it doesn't have the effect of limiting their application either So I'll let the committee read it if you'd like you can zoom in a little Think it does what the governor asked It would be signed by representative grad myself. Is that correct and that's how it's drafted now. Yes, okay And I think that's fine. I don't know if they need this the letter was originally addressed to the speaker and the president pro tem As well as senator Representative grad myself, maybe you could CC them Yeah, maybe it'd be better to cart Sure, I'll do that Sometimes when I write letters like this for our committee, I Sign it for the committee by with my name as chair and then For the committee so that it's clear that the whole committee. I don't know if you want to do that or not I don't think house judiciary is that the Okay Any comments? Particularly interested does this meet? Chief Morrison Thank you senator I for the record. I'm Jennifer Morrison policy director for the Department of Public Safety I'm a bit out of my wheelhouse here I'm going to try and play devil's advocate and assume that there might be alternate interpretations of Of what what what h-145 does or doesn't do relative to the common law defense Obviously we want to resolve this the governor to sign h-145 So I I was under the impression from the governor's council that that they were looking for a Fix and I think the letter that you're presenting Basically says there's no fix needed and I'm not Which is correct, so I'm not sure how we resolve that I'm a little confused by the governor's letter because I I read it to be asking us Just to clear up any ambiguity in terms of is that posted on our web page Peggy The governor's letters on our web page, correct Yes, it is as well as this letter I'm merely I'm pointing out that it appears they asked for a fix and the response letter is that there is no fix needed if I'm reading the letter that Bryn presented correctly Think about it clarifies To approve this bill I request your written assurance that a clarification of intent will be adopted Effective on passage that makes it clear. This was not intended to modify the defenses of self-defense or defensive others I think the letter meets that test. I Defer to you guys and your expertise like I said, I'm a bit out of my wheelhouse. I just wanted to take a little bit of a What if there are differing legal opinions approach? The only other thing that I could think we could do is pass legislation and that would have to be in probably S 97 the miscellaneous judiciary bill which not be ready for Anytime in the near one Hopefully be ready fairly shortly, but it's not ready to In the time that the governor has to either sign or not sign Senator Baruth I With respect to the chief and to the governor You know, I think there's a separation of powers Question here We went through our entire process We sent the governor a bill that we agreed on house and Senate and the governor expressed concerns and wanted a clarification of intent So we've done a kind of extraordinary extra process to generate that intent but if what the governor is seeking is that we Rewrite the bill after our committee has already been Officially shut down for the year then I think he's asking for too much, but I didn't read his letter That way I read it the way the chair did which is that he wanted a clarification of intent and this is Something that can be put on file and referred to later on Senator Ben Agree with Philip. I think he was looking for a statement of our intent I think the record has been established of what our intent is both through this letter and through these discussions For the edification of the public. I'd like to ask Brynn a simple question if I might Brynn the example I used earlier today of the unfortunate woman in Burlington who was going through a Series of injuries that led to her death I posed the question if I approached from behind the perpetrator with a tire iron and I swung it in your opinion Would I be protected With the stat the bill as it now reads Yes under the common law defense of defense of others you okay, you could raise that That is all that I'm looking for mr. Chair, and I believe the governor is Also looking for that statement. So thank you And I and I would further state that it was our intent when we drafted this bill if a situation such as the one with mr. Aubrey down in Georgia or somebody was in a building under construction and used to Stop for two people who had shotguns and then shot and killed them that is not Something that Would be permissible That was what we were looking at in terms of our well not Saying that you can shoot somebody just because you think they're doing something Senator Nick I just would like to ask Brynn So where will this other than between the parties here and the governor and his staff Where will this be located if someone some years hence wants to see it? Other than the letter So though it's a part of the record now It's posted to your committee webpage And it's and it's now a part of the a part of the official record for the file each one 45 file So I just have one This representative grad Actually, um, I think senator Nika you were muted. So I was just one Brynn was answering it I'm not sure if I'm you do myself in the middle of that but you said I was wondering is that the archives or you know, where do you find? legislative intent So it will be a part of the file in the archives and it will also be a part of the record As it's been posted to your committee webpage, which is maybe more easily accessible for people Okay, thank you Representative grad Yeah, thank you. I I'm still concerned in terms of understanding and making sure that we are addressing what the governor Use the words clarification be adopted and so I don't know when I think of it Of adopted. I think more of legislation So I just and I was I was hoping that during this um meeting Jen that you would you would be able to advise us on to whether you know, and I understand it's out of your your wheelhouse, but I You know, we're trying very hard to get it right and we know how important this legislation is to um to dps So I was hoping that we could get a understanding of what The application be adopted upon passage Thank you. I wish I had more information for you, ma'am, but um, I I don't I I think that the letter Is a great next step and I certainly appreciate what senator baruth pointed out about the process has run its course I mean, we were satisfied with it as well coming out of Both the house and the senate so I think we do the best we can and if there is Truly a fix rather than just a statement of intent needed then that will have to be dressed down the road in a in another mechanism But I do believe that advancing For the governor's signature is of paramount importance right now senator baruth so um I think if you were to ask the governor, of course the governor would prefer that we change the bill um And that's the case with many many bills that we send the governor And it is up to the governor to figure out Given his constitutional options What he's going to do I don't think anybody believes that the governor is going to veto this bill Especially over this particular um Thing that's now been clarified But I but I think if we adopt the stance of well, let's wait to decide to see what governor scott would like I can tell you Probably that governor scott would prefer a bill worded differently But you know, it's again, it's The province of the legislature to work out what the bill looks like and then the the governor Decides whether to veto we've we've bent over backwards today to supply the record Clarifying what what we believe So I I would hate to see us leave this meeting with A follow-on question. Is this okay? And then Contemplate further action if the governor would prefer more action I I agree with that. I wanted to point out that peggy It'll be with the digital files we send to the archives as part of the cip docs. We do not send papers anymore this Senator white I think we should just Make a decision right now to support this letter It clearly talks to the intent and joe's comment that this letter along with the Discussion around intent that is part of the record forever and ever and ever Is enough to satisfy the governor and While he can't be certain that it will satisfy the governor it seemed to me that he was Relatively sure And I think we should just support this Right now and just send it off and get on with it. I agree with any longer. I agree with senator white. I'm ready to sign Unfortunately, I don't have I don't know how to sign the letter I I will leave that to you. I have to go to my other committee that meets I do too, but I just wanted to explain that That My signature has been just provided Okay, mine too.  You don't have to worry about odyssey file and serve That's another matter for another day committee Representative grad representative laman chief morrison And peggy thanks And brinn particularly thanks for the Yeah, quick turn around


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So we've just been talking a lot about wall throws. Now we're going to talk about the glide. What are two simple things you can do to get more out of your stand throw that's going to carry over your full throw and what's one thing you should completely avoid because it doesn't apply to the full throw. We're going to talk about it in this video. So check it out. Hey everybody, it's Eric Johnson from Airtate Throws Nation and in today's video, what we're going to talk about is some glide. In our last few series, we put up some videos and we've been talking about wall throws and we're going to get back and resume that series.  Now one of the key things that we talk about with the glide, especially we talked about in our camps and if you'd like information, we do have upcoming camps. So click the link below for check that out. One of the things we always talk about is a very simple principle and again, we've talked about stand throws and we did some things and we showed the angle. What we refer to as setting the angle and setting the stack. Now sometimes you see coaches and people who are teaching you know, put all your weight on one leg and that's a good cue. We think that's effective. But one of the things we'll see and why we kind of advocate setting the angle and setting the stack is because we want to understand our alignment points and sometimes guys will stand on one leg like this, especially when it comes to the glide or some of the throws. So the hip when they straighten up, they're actually you're going to notice tilting into the throw a little prematurely. So this is a really simple way to just make sure everything's aligned. The hips are in the right position and now when we drop, which we call an elevator drop will drop right down into position. So it's setting the angle, setting the stack. This is a really simple thing because we want to see more throwers improving and we want to help you with some simple cues that are going to help do that. Recently this past week, I have an athlete from Canada that was a really talented female young thrower U20 athlete and we went through some basic things and one of the things was understanding that. So this athlete was setting up and was setting up like this. Now this position in a stand throw I think is effective. You can do and get a pretty decent distance on the stand throw. However, if you land in your full throw in this position with momentum, you're going to be crowd in the board. Okay. So one of the things again when when you hit the position and you're practicing again, we say set the angle set the stack and this is going to teach athletes to counter and when I have that good angle over the delivery leg and we're countering that's going to allow us to feel our movement into our block leg, which is what we want. We rotate whether it's rotational shot or glide. We have to be able to move into that block position. So one of the big things is we want to help a lot of our throwers. Here's a simple check. If you're doing this, you want to get out of this habit as fast as you can set the angle set the stack. There's going to be two big tips in this video. So one of the things we're going to do is if we have speed and we land in this position will crowd up, we'll hit our block late and we're going to inevitably be fouling throws and so they might be decent throws because you've eaten up more and you're driving out, but the ring is seven foot not nine foot. So we have to stay in that circle. So one of the core things we do we in our system last year we started integrating a ton of drill bands and it gives us a ton of feedback. You're going to see a lot more people using these bands because what they do is it's a really great tool to give you some feedback. It's visual and you can feel where you're at through the throw. We incorporated this a lot and they give us a lot of visual cues and feel cues and kinesthetic feels. So there's two ways we can show the counter balance, but we're going to show you the first way and if you remember you'll see inside of our membership we go through and we break down this a lot more, but one of the things you're going to do is you're going to notice as I stretch right this is what a lot of people do. You see this so they keep their foot and or they do this and they keep their leg close or they do this. What we want to do is create that stretch from here. So as I set it down you're going to see the band on this angle. So as I drive up you'll see how I'm changing the angle from here to here and that's what's going to be really critical. So that was going to the first big tips. We want you to set the angle and set the stack and the second big tip and we've probably talked about this in another YouTube video is see here's the center of the circle. So we're going to put our foot basically a little bit from the center and we're going to set here and in the glide we like to set here. We create a little separation and we reach and you can see how I'm stretching with the band. That's it. What we see is a lot of kids doing like I said from this and you can see we had an athlete that was doing this and what I was talking about earlier in the video which I think the bug screwed me up my train of thought was when I get here this type of a stand throw will translate. You can get a nice big stand throw because if I'm right here I can just teach and how to drive through the leg. However, if I land in that position on a full throw and I'm here and I have speed I'll get a nice push but I'm going to fly right out of the circle. So it's not a stand throw that mirrors what you need to do in your full throw. One of the core things that you want to do is when we're putting on something like this we start here and we create separation and we reach and we're stretching here. You're going to see how I can get over and now I'm going to be here.  Boom and now I'm going to be able to pull and really punch in and through the block and you're going to notice that you saw the angle that band changing to this position versus being here. You can see how it's too far forward. Here how it's stretched and this is going to lead you into much better stand throws that correlate to your actual throw because as you come through your glide and everybody's here you want to see that angle not this angle and that is your tip for the day. Okay so again hopefully you guys found this video helpful like I mentioned earlier if you have any interest in coming to any throwing chain reaction events from Maritime Throws Nation check the link below. If you are wanting to dive in deep and get into a lot of stuff check out our membership program link below as well and hopefully this tip was helpful. We want to make sure that you don't miss it. We're getting into that time. We're going to get closer to the season so hit that subscribe button. Click on notifications. If you have any questions comment below. We always want to hear what you want to see and we'll help you create some videos help answer some of your questions. Thanks so much and give us a thumbs up and we'll see you on the next video. You're going to be proud in the board.  So if you notice it's separate position one to separation.


As shuwa jubala akmeh, Tinibu is seeking the support of the Senate caucus of the APC to secure the highest seat in the country. Tinibu, in company with a high-powered delegation stormed the office of the Senate president at the National Assembly on Wednesday. He reeled out plans for the country while asking APC lawmakers for council partnership and support for nomination of what he described as his lifetime ambition. The rest that remains is about a change of leadership that I mentioned to Mr. President my ambition and I told him my ambition is not blind to the extent that I would step on his toes. I just want to step into his shoe and not on his toes. Nigeria will remain united in my period and we will use that unity, the symbol of our party, stay as one to cleanse of Nigeria of unrealizable potential. It's taken too long. I believe that at the end of the day, your Excellency will all the time continue to support our party. Recently we have had difficulty because of misunderstanding between some of our members and the party has been thrown into a temporary confusion but thank God it is over now. It is very clear that our party is back on track that at the end of the day in the next two weeks or so our National Convention will hold on a new set of leaders who will emerge, who will take us to the destination of victory by the grace of God in 2023. Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and don't forget to hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.


So, welcome to lecture 39. Here in this lecture we will see how do we use finite element method to calculate forces in electrical machines and equipment. So, what we will do is we will see two types of four calculations. One type we will see in L39 and other calculation we will see in L40. So, the first in this lecture we will see Maxwell stress tensor best calculation. Now, let us see some basics. So, mainly two types of force calculations are required. One is total force for rigidly moving system that means a body is rigid and it does not get locally deformed and body as a whole moves. So, that is called as rigidly moving system. Second is local force calculation wherein you have local deformations and then you need to calculate forces in a different way and you know at local level and how to do that we will see. Now, these you know two types of forces can be obtained using the following methods. So, total force the first type can be obtained by using either Lorentz force density that is J cross B, Maxwell stress tensor, MST, virtual work that is VW or Coulomb virtual work CVW methods whereas local force is obtained by J cross B, virtual work and CVW methods. MST cannot be used for local force because in MST based calculation we integrate you know force along some contour. So, obviously you cannot you are not then calculating local forces there. So, now you know secondly forces on current carrying conductors they can be calculated either by using J cross B method or MST or virtual work or Coulomb virtual work method. Whereas you know saliency or reluctance forces are calculated by MST virtual work and CVW method. J cross B method cannot be used here because J is unknown in the structure experiencing the force. MST, J cross B and CVW methods require only one FEM solution whereas virtual work method requires two FEM solutions. Now, one may wonder if virtual work the CVW is as the name suggests is an extension of virtual work then how come this requires two whereas CVW requires one FEM solution. See in virtual work technique we require you know two FEM solutions because we want to calculate force as change in energy divided by displacement when the body under consideration moves from one position to another hence we require energy values at both positions requiring two FEM solutions. Whereas in case of CVW that differentiation DW by DX X being the displacement DW by DX is taken care in the FEM formulation itself and that is why we require only one FEM solution. Of course we are not going to see this Coulomb virtual work method in this lecture anyone in the lecture but you know those who are interested they can see literature to understand more on Coulomb virtual work method. Now, let us go into details of Maxwell stress tensor method. Now, to calculate the force on the body what we have to do we have to enclose it by a surface which is a hypothetical surface and then integrate Maxwell stress tensor on this surface. Now, what is this MST we will see in the coming slides and in the 2D formulation the surface integral reduces to a counter integral. Obviously, from 3D to 2D the complexity reduces from surface integration to counter integration. Accuracy of the MST method depends on the choice of the integrating surface. So, one has to be careful and if there are ion air interfaces then we have to use very small size elements to reduce errors. So, this method can be used for both ferromagnetic materials and current carrying conductors as was explained on the first slide. So, now some theory about virtual work method although the application we are going to see in the next lecture that is L40. So, in this virtual work method the movable part of the system is virtually displaced in simulation and change in energy is calculated. If the magnetic energy Wf is used for calculation flux linkage lambda is kept constant in the first approach whereas in the second approach if magnetic co-energy Wco is used for calculation then current I is kept constant. So, this is second approach. So, both the approaches we will discuss in the next lecture. So, this is what is you know summarized these two statements are summarized by this you know statements here mathematical you know statements. So, f is dwf by dx wf by dx at flux constant condition can give you force or you can get the force value by Wco by Wx with current held constant. This method is less sensitive to choice of mesh and is fast converging as compared to the MST method and that is why it is many times preferred for force calculation. Now, let us understand what is this Maxwell stress tensor. Now, we know J cross B is the force density force per unit volume and J is del cross H and we are of course this neglecting here displacement current density. So, del cross H is equal to J and now H is replaced by B upon mu naught. So, fv force per unit volume is given by del cross B upon mu naught cross B wherein J is replaced by this expression. So, now first we let us calculate del cross B upon mu naught which is given by this just 1 over mu naught is taken out and then this is curl of B and when you expand curl of B you will get this you know expression. And now if you use this expression here these components x ax hat ay hat and az hat components in x, y and z directions these 3 components if you use now here in this cross product because this is what finally we want to calculate estimate. So, del cross B upon mu naught cross B will be given by these 3 components written here and then B x B y B z corresponding to this B. Now, you know I am going to skip some of the intermediate steps but for those who are interested in knowing all steps they can refer this book wherein detailed derivation is given. When you expand it then the x component you will get as this. So, when you further actually you know manipulate that previous expression then you get this expression and noting that divergence B is equal to 0 as always and mod of B square is B x square plus B y square plus B z square right. We can rewrite this whole thing as this. Now, this has been sort of rewritten in matrix multiplication form a row vector is multiplied with a column vector. Now, actually speaking this is really you know what you see in the bracket is basically del operator written in row matrix form.  So, this is what you know but when we write it in matrix multiplication form we actually do not write A x, A y and A z hats del dot this vector gives you this. Similarly, F y you can get it as this and F z you get it as this. So, now you can write complete force.  So, as I mentioned earlier this when you write it in this kind of matrix row matrix row vector form then this is nothing but actually F x, A x hat plus F y, A y hat plus F z, A z hat. So, this is nothing but force right but since we are writing in matrix form we can drop those unit vectors. So, now if we combine all three expressions that we obtained in the previous slide then we can actually combine those individual three column matrices and then we get this 3 by 3 matrix. This I have already explained this is del operator and now we can then write this F x, F y, F z as divergence of tensor t where t is this entire matrix. Now, here divergence of this column which is a vector is the scalar F x, divergence of this is F y, divergence of this is F z right. So, remember again just I am repeating this is in fact this is this multiplied by A x hat this is this into A y hat and A z hat and when you take divergence then you will get you know F x as was you know obtained earlier. So, now this capital F force vector is volume integral F v dv right and then F v we can write this as divergence of tensor dv and then we basically you know invoke divergence theorem and then write this as close surface integral t dot ds and where in df is equal to t dot ds. And in case of 2d this df will become t dot A n hat dl where ds is dl you know ds vector is ds as a magnitude into A n hat the corresponding vector representing ds.  So, here the divergence t therefore is a vector F x, F y, F z 3 components are there. Now, let us understand you know little bit more about this you know tangential and normal unit vectors which will be required you know in further calculations for example, here you require unit normal vector. Now, how do we basically you know express it mathematically we will see now. Now, let us take you know an elemental edge in 2d a plane reduces to an edge.  So, now we are going from 3d to 2d and then we will see how do we express A n hat and A t hat tangential and normal vectors unit normal vectors. So, A tangential unit vector can be written as L x A x hat plus L y A y hat wherein since this is a unit vector square root of L x square plus L y square is equal to 1 right L x and L y individually can be positive or negative right. So, it depends on how this A tangential is oriented. So, A normal hat will be then given by minus L y A x hat plus L x A y hat. Now, if you take the dot product of A t hat and A n hat then you will find that the dot product is 0 because this will give minus L x L y plus L x L y so dot product is 0 as it should be because they are orthogonal vectors right. So, now how do we find out these you know values of L x and L y, L x and L y for each of these vectors. For the surface under consideration which is an agent. Then we have to worry about how do we express A t and A n in terms of you know chosen coordinate system. So, now let us see as an example this you know A t hat along this edge and we are considering this corresponding surface. So, A n hat for the entire this surface will be in this direction. So, now if we bring this A n hat at this point the point under consideration on this edge remember A n hat is you know at every point on this surface A n hat is normal and it is in the same direction. So, this A n hat as a representation is shown at the center of this center of this face but I can always bring this A n hat at the point under consideration on this edge. Now actually if you bring it here and now if you actually you know make a plane pass through you know A t and A at hat A t hat and A n hat and we call that as you know x y plane. Then you will get A t hat and A n hat as shown here and then you can see here for this A t hat both L x and L y will be negative because L y is x is negative and y also is negative. So, both these components will be negative and A n hat L x is positive and L y is negative. And then that ensures when these both are both these are negative and here you know one is positive and one is negative it ensures that their dot product is 0. So, now I am just writing these expressions for the two unit vectors again here and now since we are considering 2D approximation that tensor matrix reduces to only 2 by 2 and then you know this is dL is this A n hat is this minus L y and L x right and again we are not since we are writing it is a column matrix we are not writing unit vectors. Similarly, there are unit vectors here also A x hat, A y hat, A x hat, A y hat but we are not writing those. So, now if we expand this you will get dFx and dFy as these two expressions a simple just a product of these two you will get these two expressions. So, going further now let us see how do we calculate force between two circular conductors first we will see by J cross B approach and then we will also see how to calculate force using MST approach. Now these B y and B expressions are very well known to you we have seen these many number of times. So, B y is given by this and B x is given by this exploration here on the right hand side and then the B net is square root of B x square plus B y square and for this we are talking you know for one element we always run for loop and then for each element we calculate some performance parameter same thing is being done here. Now what we do we find out you know whether the element under consideration in the for loop whether it is you know lying in this first conductor. Now what we are doing these are the two circular conductors here 4 and 5 and then you know we have enclosed them into you know rectangular boundaries which will be required basically for you know the MST best calculation force calculation. So, now if the you know the element is in sub domain 4 then f x and f y are given by these two you know expressions how do we get them f is nothing but j cross B is the force per unit volume. So, that you multiply by volume area of the element into 1 because it is 2 dimensional approximation with z dimension taken as 1 meter. So, j cross B is this remembering that j only has z component. So, if you take B as only having B x and B y components and j with only j z component you can easily you know verify that j cross B will come as this. So, now here f x the x component will be j j B y minus j B y into area of the element. Similarly, f y will be j B x. So, j B x into area of the element.  Similar thing you do for second circular conductor or remember this is a circular but this is a cylindrical conductor. So, z direction is not shown here it is a 2 dimensional approximation. So, then you calculate and store values of forces on all elements within these finite elements within this conductor phi in these 2 column vectors x and y components of forces and then you basically sum all the forces. So, this sum of f x 1 will give you the total x component of x component of force acting on conductor 4 the resultant y component of force acting on conductor 4 similarly for conductor phi. So, by this we have got f x and f y acting on individual these 2 conductors. So, now let us see how do we calculate force between the same 2 circular conductors by using the MST approach. So, what do we do we are here we are just initializing by these 2 commands. Then what we do is these 2 conductors and as I as I as I mentioned previously these 2 conductors are enclosed in these 2 fictitious counters over which we will do integration of Maxwell stress tensor. And now what we do we run from run a loop from i equal to 1 to number of edges. Now what are these n underscore edges? Now there are these 4 main edges here 9, 10, 11, 12. Now if you take age 9 then age 9 will have number of sub edges because now you know you are here you will have one triangular element like this, other triangular element like this, third triangular element like this and so on. So, this will form these segments will form sides of triangular elements like this. So, you can call these as sub edges on this main age 9. So, when we say i goes from 1 to n underscore edges we are basically going over all these sub edges. When we are running this for loop if the sub edge under consideration if it is lying either on 9, 10, 11 or 12th main edge then what you do in nodes 1 column vector you take using the E matrix you take the coordinates which are there in second and third row of the E matrix corresponding to the age i because each age i will have 2 nodes and these are these nodes. So, you have got by using this command node numbers of end points of each sub edge and then using these 2 commands you basically get the x and y coordinates of those end points of the sub edge under consideration. And then you take average of the x and y coordinates of the end points and then you take the you know by using this command you find out length of that sub edge. Then you find out in which triangular element means midpoints of the sub edge under consideration lie having got that triangular element number in which that you know midpoint lies then we can get the corresponding b x and b y values corresponding to that triangle and then we can calculate net value of b which is square root of b x square plus b y square. So, now let us you know see how we can calculate forces now depending upon you know sub edge where actually you know it is lying whether it is part of main age 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 we will execute corresponding sets of commands. Now, if for example for age 9 lx is 1 and ly is 0 why because we have seen here a hat tangential is given by lx ax hat plus ly a y hat and this relation holds. So, now here for any sub edge on this age 9 which is along x direction lx will be 1 and ly will be 0 if lx is 1 and ly is 0 then only this component will be there for any age along this any sub edge along this 9. So, that is the reason that here it is this is 1. So, it is by bx upon mu 0 into dl this is dl divided by mu 0 which I already explained and then similarly the y component y component will be again for this sub edge it is 1 and 0 so ly is 0. So, this term goes to 0 in case of dfy and this term remains. So, it is by square minus 0.5 b net square into dl divided by mu 0 and anyway lx is 1. So, this is how you can calculate x and y components for any sub edge which is part of main age 9. Similarly, then you can calculate for you know all other sub edges if they are lying on either 10, 11 or 12th main edge and remember for age 10 which is vertically down lx will be 0, ly will be minus 1 because it is in negative y direction similarly for 11 and 12. Now the FEM solution we will see now the solution by both these methods Lorentz force equation and Maxwell stress tensor and also we will actually compare with analytical formula. So, Lorentz force equation j cross b using that method which was already described you get force values as this whereas Maxwell stress tensor method gives you forces on conductor 1 and conductor 2 as this and these values are quite close to each other confirming that our MST approach is you know validated and for these two conductors we are assuming that currents are in opposite directions the field will be as shown like this and since the currents are in opposite directions these conductors will repel each other and that is the reason we are getting forces in opposite directions. So, conductor 1 force is in negative x direction and for conductor 2 the force is in positive x direction. The analytical formula is mu 0 i1 i2 upon 2 pi d into the length in z direction so this gives the force between the two parallel conductors. Now here since we are calculating you know per unit depth because it is two-dimensional approximation so the length in z direction is 1 so this actually here into 1 so that is that is why it is not considered. So, now actually if you substitute the values then you get this as 1.03 Newton per meter. Now here diameter of two conductors is taken as 10 mm and current density assumed is 5 ampere per mm square so distance between two conductors is 30 mm. So, i1 and i2 will be j into area so pi d square by 4 where d is 0.01 meter so you get 392.7 amperes that where you substituted here for both this i1 and i2 and the distance as 0.03 you get this 1.03 which again is quite close to these values. So, all the three you know methods analytical formula base calculation, MSD base calculation and Lorez force equation base calculation all the three are giving values in the same range. So, this verifies our you know calculation methods. Finally, we actually also calculate force on a core or plunger by using MSD method. Now here this is one core C shape core and this is again a core piece which you can call it as a plunger and when there is a coil here when you pass current to this coil you get flux established like this and now this you know this core C shape core will attract this piece of core because you know if it is north pole here there will be south pole here and then these two opposite poles will attract each other same thing will happen here. So, now here the MSD in MSD base calculation what we do we enclose this piece by using by you know a fictitious contour and we integrate MSD over this contour. So, the dimensions are given here air gap length is 40 mm. So, this is 40 mu R is mu R for this and this is taken as 5000 and the other dimensions are given in this figure right and coil dimensions are also given. So, when we actually you know calculate force using the MSD method which is which was described in this lecture we get force as 2.71 into 10 raise to 4 Newton per meter again remember this is per meter depth because we are doing 2D approximation. So, we do calculations for unit depth in Z direction. So, we basically we will calculate the same force value for the last case study using virtual work method in the next lecture. Thank you.


Let us look at the critique of the finite resource constraint and this is the critique which is given by an economist Adelman. He says the total mineral in the earth is an irrelevant non-binding constraint. If expected finding minus development costs exceed the expected net revenues, investment dries up and the industry disappears. Whatever is left in the ground is unknown, probably unknowable but surely unimportant. Geological fact of no economic interest. So it is not just the reserve that we are talking of only when it is economic and if it is viable then only it will be extractable. So this whole calculation of the, this is a critique which says that the calculation of the reserves should not be necessarily done, it depends on the cost. And we will refine that but just historically when we look at it the static R by P ratio, the exponential ratio is something which is interesting to see. In the case, in McCabe's paper he talks about two different models of the, of any resource and you have a close market where initially because of the economies of scale the prices can go down and then and depletion results in higher prices. And as a result of this the demand rises where prices fall and then as the depletion goes, then the production rate goes down. So we expect a curve which will go through a maximum and come down. And similar kind of thing is expected even in a case of an open market. So in all the cases what we expect is that we will have a bell shaped curve Pt versus T will start from 0, go to an maximum and this is similar, this is essentially similar to the initial analysis which was done by M. King Hubbard. M. King Hubbard way back in the 1950s, 1960s was a geologist with the Geological Survey. This was a time when there was no concept of finite resources and we were talking of coal and oil and gas being the main source where we are going to have a lot of innovation and development and growth and but he was the first person who talked in terms of a limit and a reserve and looked at this kind of a shape of curve. So let us look at, we will upload for you the original paper and you can take a look at that but his analysis showed he made these kind of plots. So if you see the plots, these plots all follow, this was the trend which was there in the till the 60s, we are looking at an exponential growth in all the resources. So where we look at this is the world production of coal and you can see it starts from small amount and then it has been growing, there is fluctuation but it has been growing exponentially. Similarly the world production of oil, US production of crude oil and he postulated that the overall production trend for any exhaustible resource will follow this kind of a curve and then he said that let us take the total amount of reserve which is there, which is called as Q infinity and if we take 0 to infinity of Pt dt, this will give us the total amount of cumulative amount of reserve that we have and the production rate at any point of time Pt will be dQ dQp by dt, where this is the Qp is the cumulative production from time t is equal to 0, t is equal to 0 to some time t. So it is the cumulative production and that cumulative production, when we look at that cumulative production, the rate of the dQp by dt will be the production in the tth year and what he did was this was in the period when we did not have the computers and the modeling capability. So he took essentially looked at these world fossil fuel reserves and he plotted the production and used it on a graph paper where the area under the curve would be the reserve and he estimated based on the recoverable reserves estimate with this production fitted a curve of this type and this is what he had done for world coal and he had done this for US and he had done this for the world coal, world oil production, interestingly he projected the year in which the US oil will peak and this is the whole concept, the beginning of this peak oil and he projected it as happening in a particular year and it actually happened within a few years of that. So this is where his analysis in future showed that this is the kind of thing. So but this represents one of the earliest analysis where you have this limit and today we can use this and we can plot a curve and we will do this, we will take this analysis, we will derive a curve for this and this would be a logistic curve and we will see what is the year in which the peak occurs. When we talk about oil, you will see that oil that we have is, some of it is offshore and about half is onshore and we have certain, it is distributed in certain areas. We of course have relatively less amount of oil and our production only meets a small proportion of our total. So the R by P ratio if you take the R by P ratio or the R by C where if you take the oil consumption, the R by C ratio if you see it is really really small and we really do not have oil for even more than a decade if we are to meet the total consumption from the Indian resources but of course most of our oil comes in terms of imports. Similarly in the case of oil supply also you can see globally oil supply has been increasing. We can just take a look at some of the trends in prices of some of these fossil fuels. So we look at the coal price trend in UK, you can see the price variations in Germany, price variations in natural gas. So there are fluctuations in these and they are not showing much trends, they have of course some of them have increased and decreased and we will now try and replicate the analysis which was done by Hubbard and we will try and do this in terms of the logistic growth curve. So the, we talked about Qp being the cumulative production from time t is equal to 0 to t that means 0 to t Pt dt. Now this Qp rate of change of Qp dQp by dt is nothing but Pt. The rate of change of is proportional dQp, Pt is proportional to Qp that means the demand for coal will be proportional to the cumulative amount of coal that has been used because that results in more usage and people see and as we go towards the limit then this, if we are going towards Q infinity the dQp by dt is constrained by the fact that we are near the limit. So if we take this we have a model which gives us dQp by dt is equal to B into Qp into Q infinity minus Qp. So as we go towards the rate of change of the cumulative production Qp which is the production in a particular year in the initial case it is exponential as we go towards the limit that decreases because we have this limiting term which is Q infinity minus Qp. If we take this we can then derive and we will get dQp by Qp Q infinity minus Qp is equal to B dt and you can show by integration that Qp is Q infinity by 1 plus a e raise to minus Pq infinity t. This is called an S shaped curve, S shaped logistic curve it is also called the Perl curve after the statistician Raymond Perl who initially proposed this as a curve which was used to show the growth in organisms in terms of height and weight and this has been used in a whole host of applications. The way this works is that you start from here and then you go and it goes asymptotically to the limit. So in this case this is Q infinity, this is Qp, this is t and this is what is known as the S shaped curve. So we can how do we get this curve and I will give you a tutorial where we can look at the actual data for India and you can make this calculation. We have done this and based on this corresponding to this then you get the production going through a maximum and coming down and this is the kind of thing that this is what was done for petroleum. So typically what happens in this is that we can take this curve Qp, Q infinity by 1 plus a e raise to minus Bq infinity t. We need to find these coefficients a and b. Q infinity we should be able to get an estimate from the geological survey. The geological survey of India if you are looking at Indian context whatever estimate we have of the reserves we use as Q infinity and we can calculate, we can modify this and see we can write this as 1 plus a e raise to minus Bq infinity t will be Q infinity by Qp. So Q infinity by Qp minus 1 is a e raise to minus Bq infinity t. Now for this I can take ln on both sides and I will get ln of Q infinity by Qp minus 1 is ln a minus Bt where B is equal to Bq infinity. Now if you look at this, this is of the form y is equal to C1 plus C2t and this is amenable to linear regression. All that we can do is we can take, we can start with the time series data that we have of production and we can take a particular year in which we can get the initial value of Qp at starting Ts and then for each year we can just add on the production so that we can get the Qp from that starting year till the recent years, obtain the estimate of Q infinity from the resource and then we can get ln Q infinity by Qp minus 1 and get that as y and then get these coefficients ln and B from a regression. So we can take this and make the calculations and get the coefficients a and b. So I would urge you to try this with the data set that we have for India for Indian coal and you can try and get the coefficients a and b and compare it with the results. Then once we have that we can use it to find what is the year of peaking. So this is something that we can calculate what is the year of peaking that we will have based on the fact that the peak production will happen in that year. So if we see the equation that we have Qp is Q infinity by 1 plus a e raise to minus BQ infinity t. We want to find out the time when the production is maximum, when the production is maximum it will be a stationary point where dp by dt will be equal to 0. Now dp by dt is equal to 0 means that we are going to have dqp by dpp is equal to dqp by dt. So we will like to find the point of inflection when this will be maximum where d squared Qp by dt squared is equal to 0. So let us take this equation and differentiate it. We get d squared Qp by dt squared. We can take the equation where we have, let us start from the other point. Let us start from the point where we have p is BQp Q infinity minus Qp. This is the starting point. So we can take this as dqp by dt which is going to be B dp by dt set it equal to 0 is going to be B dqp by dt into Q infinity minus Qp plus BQp and differentiate Q infinity minus Qp which is minus dqp by equal to 0. B is not equal to 0. Also dqp by dt is not equal to 0 because that is the production that is the maximum production. So we can divide by these and what we will get then is Q infinity minus Qp minus Qp is equal to 0 which means Qp is equal to Q infinity by 2. This is the point at which we will get our peak production and this will happen at the point of inflection. It will happen at the midpoint of the cumulative production curve. So now we can calculate, we can substitute, we can say Q infinity by 2 is equal to Q infinity by 1 plus A e raised to minus BQ infinity. We can then say 2 is equal to 1 plus A e raised to minus BQ infinity Tm let us say Tm and then this becomes 1 is equal to A e raised to minus BQ infinity Tm and then you get Tm is ln A by B. So whatever we calculated, we have calculated the time at which the peak will occur and this is in terms of these coefficients A, B and Q infinity which we have derived. So this is the year of peaking. We can also find out instead of this we can find out the T90 percent time at which 90 percent of the resource is used up. So we can take Qp by Q infinity is 0.9, substitute it and get the value of T. So unlike in the other case where it abruptly ends, in this case we have the S shaped curve where it goes asymptotically to the limit and so this can give you an estimate and you will find that this Tm will be in between you have the static R by P ratio which is the highest and this will you will have the Hubbard model or Tm and this will be in between this and the exponential T for the exponential growth model which will be the smallest. It will be somewhere in between and this is one of the ways in which we can do this. This curve which we have is symmetric about the point of inflection. Instead of this we can also have other curves, other logistic curves not commonly used but there could be the Gumperts curve for instance and you can try this out. This way is where Qp is Q infinity e raised to minus b e raised to minus kT. So we have Q infinity and you have these two coefficients b and k you have to take log twice and then you can get these coefficients by linear regression substituted. Here the curve is not symmetric about the point of inflection so we have choices and it has a different kinds of characteristics. So we looked at the Hubbard's model and we just saw that we can calculate this point of inflection. This model has been used to estimate, this is where the world oil when it will peak and in many of these estimations what has happened is that technologies have changed and the reserve estimates have changed. So sometimes this whole concept of peak oil has been questioned. The cumulative production proven reserves and if you see some of these, so you can also express this model in terms of this expression which has a quash component which is very similar to the model that we had talked of. There are also these models which have been used for different countries where you have a multi- Hubbard model which means that you start with one particular peak and then if we find reserves for instance you use shale oil or you use some other things where the technology has changed you are going for the second peak and there have been modifications of this. So this has been sort of the historical production, cumulative production but we have extended beyond conventional oil and gone into the unconventional and this is because in previous years we had certain technologies which involves a certain amount of certain type of drilling. We now have the possibility of cost effective even horizontal drilling and we have this concept of fracking where now we are using shale oil, unconventional resources. So it is this paper which has shown in Brazil you had this multi, you had this first cut where we have a production and it goes down and then it goes to the next level. And so basically we have these kind of multi- Hubbard curve, you go to one peak then because of the technology improvement goes to the next peak and so on. So these are ways in which we try to understand how the technology and reserves concern. There are many different studies where they have done these kinds of Hubbard curve analysis. Now this is a news article which talks about the different kinds of oil drilling technologies over the years and you can see very clearly that there have been a lot of improvements in technology. So essentially what happens is that earlier there were resources which would not be considered economically, economical as sources of oil but today they will be considered as something which is economical and this is why we have different kinds of production. There are, if you look at the global energy assessment you will find that there are these estimates for conventional, unconventional oil, coal and you have the reserves and resources and you find that we have significant amount of stock if you add up the resources and reserves and so that is not currently a constraint based on the present. But of course there is a problem in terms of the carbon dioxide which makes it problematic to use the fossil fuels and you can see clearly that the oil resources also over time if you plot it you see that there has been an increase and this shows this is an interesting sort of image which shows the kind of discoveries and production and you can see that oil discoveries have been now declining, production of course is increasing and you can have details of this in terms of different regions, what are the production reserves and you can, if you are interested you can look at this, the global energy assessment resources chapter and you can look at some of these details. The other approach which is the approach which has been proposed by Adelman and others is where they were talking in terms of not a static estimate of reserves. So the idea is that based on what is known technology you can have different kinds of and the prices at which one can get, one can get different kinds of supply. So as technology improves you can have the increase in the resources and reserves and on the other hand there is a resource depletion. So there is this two kinds of trade-offs. So there is this approach which is now called the supply curve approach where we estimate at with different kinds of technologies what kind of reserves are available. So this is the kind of, this is showing for conventional oil, enhanced oil recovery, tar sands and others and so on. So one can have essentially a different element of it which relates to price and supply and for each of these when we talk about stocks we talk about a supply curve at different price levels and the kind of costs which are available. And similar things are done for fossil and uranium for instance in the case of uranium there is, there could be a certain amount of reserves, similar things for natural gas you can have. This is for a gas supply curve you can see different amounts at different kinds of prices. So that adds a different dimension and you can see the sources and put the kind of values which are there. So this is the different approach unlike the, we have seen the static R by P ratio, the exponential and then the Hubbard curve or the logistic growth and then we have the supply curve option. In the supply curve option we are basically saying that it is not a static amount, it is not a fixed finite resource but there is a resource which is a function of technology and cost and at different cost there will be different amounts of supply. So this is one of the ways in which you can do this. You can look at details of this through some of these references, the global energy assessment and some of the papers, Adelman's paper and the peak oil concept. So what we have done is we have looked at essentially resources which are stocks and which are considered to be non-renewable or depletable. You should remember that in all of these cases coal, oil, natural gas are also renewed. They are formed over natural processes where vegetation comes under pressure and it comes under some sets of changes and over thousands of years you have these resources and reserves formed. However, the rate at which we deplete it is at much faster than the rate at which it is renewed. So for all practical purposes these are known as depletable. In the case of these resources which we are considering as stocks, there are different ways in which we can classify based on the probability of occurrence, based on the economics of it and we talked about the McKelvie's diagram. We then said that given a certain estimate, we can have different estimates of the time for which it would last. We looked at the static R by P ratio, we looked at the exponential and we looked at the logistic growth curve or the Hubbard curve model. We also said that there are limits, there are problems with these kind of approaches and maybe what we can look at is our supply curves at different kinds of prices. So this is all in terms of stocks. There are also a whole set of resources which are renewable resources which are going to be flows and that is the next thing that we will tackle. Thank you. Thank you.


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and let me bring the cam up and we'll get started. All right, well, welcome back everyone.  Got a couple of really nice stocks. I'm telling you, really big list for, technically it would be like a Monday but it is Tuesday with market being closed. But there are some stocks that just do an incredible, we'll talk a little bit about this SCKT. This thing just rocketed just like a total beautiful move up 212% already. Look at that stock, 22 million shares. Stock had a really nice push early this morning. I put it in the chat. You could see it on the watch list and also you could see it here on YouTube live. Basically I posted up there the pre-market. So that was basically one of the big movers. And obviously we know what's going on with Bitcoin. Bitcoin brought 50,000. Let me tell you, like I have to say, I'll never forget, like I talked about this last week but last week was a 10 year anniversary when Bitcoin was at a dollar. And I would say, you know, with all those COVID stuff going on, I haven't really, obviously I haven't been on the road at all. Last time I did a presentation with at the one of the money shows and there was a guy there and they had this whole thing on Bitcoin. I remember Bitcoin was at like, I don't know, like 3,000. The guy said it's gonna go to 50,000, 100,000. I'm like, is this guy like on crack? Is he really that crazy? And I'm like, and he really actually believed it. I mean, he really sold me on it but I still, I'm like, listen, as a trader, I always say, unfortunately, being a professional trader, we have very short-term conservative looks. We're not very speculative. And I can't believe how that thing just actually just took off where it is.   This thing is just like unbelievable. There we go. So riot, I mean, it just killed it. Stock went from 20 to 50. That's already almost had to 59.  So anyway, there was a couple of stocks I do wanna talk about last week. One really good one I just wanna kind of mention was Chewy. Chewy were really killing on this one right here. Chewy just obviously just been doing great on a swing trade and it really did good on a day trade. Let me show the day trade on that stock. I actually averaged up on that position. I bought it right around like just about 10 o'clock and got in right around like one, 12 or something like that. I bought more of it. Now, for some of us out there, it is expensive. Some of them are expensive, but listen, there are some of them that are really movers and some of them, we wanna be a little careful on them, but that one actually did pretty well. There was a couple of the stocks that also did really well. You know, the Uber's obviously doing pretty well on the swing. What else that we had that did really well that I wanna keep an eye, oh, well, B. I mean, you can see some of them also. This is what I was always worried about. When they make big runs, you gotta be really careful on the stock side of going down. Couple of, also shipping stocks did really, really well. Tops on Friday did great. What else was the other one? Ship also did great. And ship is obviously gonna go back on the watch list. She's also gapping up again.  And not a bad little mover. Everybody could afford it. It's up 17% up again. So anyway, this stock, when you could see it back in January, it was at 60 cents. It's up at $2. Let me tell you, swing trade's been working pretty well lately. And you know what? Remember, to be a good swing trader, you gotta be a good day trader first, because you'll see the consistency of every day it's going up. I'm like, hey, you know what? Stock's moving pretty well. And I say it all the time. That's how you fall into some of these really, really good swing trades. Now let's talk about some other stocks that are moving this morning. Now, we saw what happened with oil. Oil obviously is also making a big run. I think there's this war going on in Kenya, whatever, something like that. I don't know, somewhere. That's bringing oil up. They shut down the Keystone Pipeline. That's bringing the oil up. So oil, listen, first of all, historically, I never seen oil drop down below, they were paying you. Remember it dropped down below $30? Like it was negative 30. Now it's back to 60. I mean, I was always a fan of oil, but you could see now that they're pushing this whole new green deal that's going on. So with that, oil price is probably gonna go up a lot. So keep an eye on some of the oil stocks because oil stocks are obviously on the run now. So look at those stocks to obviously more of a swing trade, more investment. Could oil go back to 140? That could happen. You know what I mean? Remember that oil was, I remember oil was up that high when we were paying $5 a gallon. But let me tell you, we had that, that was a great run. And actually it was also a great short too. So it came right back down when they started, I guess some type of policies came in there. But let's go look at a couple of the stocks out here that are moving. Hold on what I got here. Here we go. All right, Jeff, you can see the chart. Can everybody see the chart? I think everyone should be able to see my chart, okay? All right. I think everybody can see. Can everybody give me a chat back of where we can see, okay? All right, it's making sure. Okay, good. All right, let's go over a couple of the stocks that are moving. We have this, another stock that's moving really nice is the TRCH. This morning, this stock is popping beautifully. The stock had a great push on Friday. You could see it ran from like $2 to $3. Then it ran from after hours from three to four. I don't know where that came from. And now she's moving up, she's up another 46%. Beautiful mover, nice little trend little stock right there. Once again, what did I tell you about the grain new deal? Energy stocks, energy stocks, energy stocks. What do you got going on right here? This stock was literally 40 cents in December, okay? Look at it right now. It's already at four bucks. So energy stocks, remember, check that on your swing trade accounts. Listen, the more good things you hear about that government's gonna pass a green new deal, the more you're gonna see a lot of these energy stocks do a lot better, okay? So keep an eye on that one too. Couple of the ones. Don't wanna keep an eye on ALJJ. You know what?  She's up 72% right here. She's up a little bit. I'm feeling she's a little bit more of an algo stock over there on the right. You could see a lot of them there on the right-hand side. You can see those big orders. But for some of us that are beginners that don't really know too much and to get a little nervous, the deer in the headlights, this stock might be up your rally. MYT. Okay, so what is this? This is Long Island Ice Tea, right? MYT, I believe. No, Urban Tea. All right, so anyway, this stock has also gapped up. I don't know what happened. She kind of backed off right here in the beginning. She's starting to kind of flat line right here. So she's up about 52%. She's got, you can see right here, right around 511, there's a 21,000 share buyer out there. Kinda makes sense why it's kinda holding here somewhere around these prices right here. So let's see if it holds it. If that is, it could be a good buy. So that stock could be another really nice trade. C-A-N, can. Okay, another one, gapped up pretty big. I can't believe how many stocks that are gapped up so much this morning for a Tuesday coming back after the weekend. Pretty scary. So just, you know what, I'd be honest with you, I was just thinking about this earlier in myself. I feel like this is like 1999 all over again. Remember the internet bubble? I mean, will we have a bubble? I hope so because then we can go short and make a lot of money. But I'm finding that just so many things are moving up.  I'm like, I really don't think that these stocks are worth as much as they are.  I just think that people can't afford the expensive ones. They wanna get into the stock market and it just, everyone's trading. But I mean, you don't see any statistics.  You hear about oil.  You only hear about trading, which is kind of weird. Kind of wish they would talk about that and say, hey, how much has trading gone up at Schwab?  What about trading numbers, right? Really curious to see if they ever, they should come out with that number. But I'm telling you, more and more people are getting into trading because it pays a lot of money and why not? What else you got to do? It's a lot easier, a lot safer. Do we bring up the SINL? Another stock that's up 0.2%, 1.86 million shares. She got some really nice little iceberg orders over there on level three. It's kind of flat. She made a big move right around 830 from 880 all the way to $10. She had a big spike. Remember, there are two big moves. One at 7 a.m., one at 8 a.m., one at 830, and one at nine. So those are the three big program trading times when they move. You can see this one did that exactly at 830. Who I want to go over, BFFM. This stock has basically came right up to resistance levels which you can see about four days ago and she kind of just backed right off. So be careful being up 17%, 13 million shares. It is a penny stock, so be very careful about that. But she's on a downtrend right now because she is testing that resistance. And then obviously SOS, I forgot to mention, we trade this the last two days and this stock has just been just on a tear. It's up another 24% this morning. Look at that, $9. We were just trading at two days ago at four bucks. Once again, has it become a day trade to a swing trade by seeing what happened the last couple of days? So she started back off. There could be some profit taking but this stock obviously, like I said, back in December, right at the end of December, this thing was $1.50. It's just like unheard of. So don't feel like you miss anything. Ron says the pot stocks are moving. Yes, T-L-R-Y, T-R-L-Y. I told you, these stocks took a huge hit. I sold it, I kicked myself in the butt that I didn't have held onto it. I bought back into it, Ron. So I own it from, I bought it on Friday, I bought it back. I think I want a 20, hold on. I gotta check my swing trade. I did a swing trade on it. I think I got in at 29. Yeah, it came right back down. Yeah, right around here, around 29. Let's see if she creeps up a little bit. She's got this big resistance levels right around like 32 you could see right there. You gotta see if she breaks that, you know? So those stocks are also doing pretty well too. So we had the pot stocks. What else you got? You got the crypto stocks. That's about it. I mean, I got a lot of blue going on my screen but nothing's really up that big. I'm just looking at my other watch list. That's about it. Anything I'm missing, I did not call out. Anything missing? All right, so listen. Oh, the LK, yeah. So this stock just, that's what brings that up because this one just made a move where right around the nine o'clock move. So yes, nice little move on the LKCO. That's the, there's your nine o'clock program trading move right there. Stock obviously you could see also last couple of days. Great move, 60 cents, dollar, dollar 20, dollar 60 and look where it is right now. Another one, oh, FDFT. You know, I had on the watch list, I put it on the B list. She started to trend down a little bit. So that's why I didn't really care for it that much. So she's up a little bit. You could put it on the C list, but I don't know. I wasn't too crazy. The list is getting, you know, you can't trade them all. There's a lot of big ones. Unless you see something that I don't then trade it, but like I said, there's just so much moving on a Tuesday, which is really, really weird and really awkward, so it's great. Chuck is saying the DPW is moving. Yeah, that one's, you know what? That looks pretty good. I'll throw that on the watch list. Once again, I didn't have it on my list. Why? Because that's the 9am program trading timeframe when it moved. DPW, definitely. We all know DTW. We trade November. Remember the stock went from $2 to $10? That was a huge run up. One person on YouTube, Omar says L-O-V-E. Could you check out that one? Honestly, Omar, this is garbage. I wouldn't even touch this thing. This is not, you know, not doing anything. Maybe you know something I don't. Maybe it's a swing trade river, but as a day trade, doing absolutely zero. Okay? Sorry about that. All right, guys. So listen, before I go, don't forget, today, live, we have traders talk at 11am. So we're gonna broadcast it live on YouTube and Facebook. We do it once a month on there. So don't miss that opportunity. We're gonna broadcast that. It's one of our most popular events here in the cybergroup room. It's where we take one of the traders and we review their journals and teach you everything, what the mistakes that they made and what they should be doing. Remember, the key to be a very good trader is not seeing someone to teach you how to make money. It's to teach you how to stop losing it. Once you stop losing money and you learn how to stop losing, the winners take care of themselves. So don't forget to miss that event today at Tuesday. And then also one of our biggest events that are going on for the month.  This week, we also have the cyber expo. And let me just post a link up there for you guys, ctu.co. Don't forget cyber expo this week. Let me just share that. We got five great speakers in today's event, limited seats. So please, let me put the link up there. Go there now and make sure you are registered for the, be sure you're registered for the cyber expo. So we start on Thursday and we're gonna go from 12 o'clock all the way to five o'clock with all the great speakers. All right, guys? So don't miss that opportunity. So see you back at 11, cyber traders. We're gonna start chatting in a trading room at 9.35. If some of you do wanna get in here that are watching YouTube, Facebook Live, just like us, friend us, click the alarm, pay the $9 and do a trial for the week. And if you're new here to Cyber Trading University, I know a lot of you guys registered last week. I know you're starting today. Sit back, watch, please, very important. You talk to your education advisor, which is what you get with it. Let me explain to you what to watch because you're gonna get lost. Don't think you know what's going on, because trust me, when you see things that we do, you're gonna blow your mind. And most importantly, don't buy anything we trade in the room. We did not teach you, we did not show you anything. You're there to watch the other traders to see if they make money. Don't count my money, I say. Don't count the other instructor's monies. See if everybody else makes money because they can make money. That means you can make money. And that's the goal about being part of being a professional trader at Cyber Trading University. Good luck, everyone. Happy trading. We'll see you back here at 11.