Rwyf amdân, ond bydd John Swinney i'w pethau ffamilio'r pheirwyr, y First Minister i'r Cymdeithasedd Côrアedwyrterod ac Rhywodraeth i'w meddwl o gwestiynau i'i ddweud ydi'i ddweud i'r ddim yn gweithio'r prifoedd yma i ddim yn eitemau i gŷ, rwyf am rhoi. Rwyf amfattwch yng nghyd-dyn nhw ddylai mewn adeg. Rydyn nhw'n ddwellotheraeth o'i ddweud o'r ffathau'r gyrfaith diwrnau lle, a fawr diwrnod o'r roi'w ddweud o'r lle a'u gyrfaith i ‑fasiliau'r ddylch yn dechrau'r ysgolwyr. Mae rhyngwblion hyn yn ddechrau sylwyr o'r gyrfaith diwrnod o'r ddylch o'r ddylch yn diwrnod o'r ddylch i ddweud o ddylch i ddweud o'r digerwyrio'r ffathau. as it is known, is the best way of promoting the best interests of our children and young people. I would like to take the opportunity to set out the principles that underpin the GERFEC approach and why they are so crucial in driving Scottish Government policy towards children. GERFEC is the national approach in Scotland to improving outcomes and supporting the wellbeing of our children and young people by offering the right help at the right time from the right people. It supports them and their parents to work in partnership with the services that can help them. It puts the rights and the wellbeing of children and young people at the heart of the services that support them, such as early year services, schools and the national health service, to ensure that everyone works together to improve outcomes for a child or for a young person. It is an agenda that enshrines the principle of early intervention that was championed by the Christie commission and embraced by this Parliament and several of its committees over many years of its inquiry. Fundamentally decent aims and ones that this Parliament has endorsed repeatedly on a cross-party basis, aims that have been welcomed by children's charities and the teaching and the nursing professions, and it is against that backdrop of a shared commitment to children's wellbeing that the named person service was developed. It was through the recognition, based upon real-life experiences and expert advice, that a timely and early offer of advice or help can prevent troubles from becoming crises, and in some cases, crises from becoming tragedies. The girfrech approach is one that works. It was taken forward in Highland, where the value of the named person role as a central point of contact was first identified by parents and rolled out across the authority between 2008 and 2010. Since then, more families have been receiving additional support and more quickly. That means that there has been less need for compulsory measures and the needs of many children have not escalated. Between 2007 and 2013, the number of referrals to the children's reporter in Highland dropped from 2,335 to 744, a drop of 68 per cent in complex, sensitive and costly processes. The number of children on the child protection register and the number of looked after children has been sustained at 15 to 20 per cent lower than prior to the girfrech approach being introduced. Moreover, social work caseloads have been reduced by up to 50 per cent from previous levels, now averaging around 15 at any one time. Accordingly, early intervention is getting more support to more children and those who need higher levels of intervention are also receiving that. Those figures represent progress, but the arithmetic represents something far more valuable. It represents the opportunity for young lives to be improved at an earlier stage and significantly so. Those are the benefits that we want to bring to the whole of Scotland. Although I accept that political support has not been universal, there has been and continues to be broad political and stakeholder support for the policy. However, the named person service has been subject to a legal challenge, which has cast uncertainty over its scope and its legality. Although both the outer and inner houses of the court of session upheld the provisions of the Children and Young People Scotland Act 2014, on 28 July, the Supreme Court determined that ministers needed to provide greater clarity about the basis on which health visitors, teachers and other professionals supporting families will share and receive information in their named person role. They ruled that the information sharing provisions of part 4 of the Children and Young People Scotland Act 2014 are incompatible with article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights, and that changes are needed to make those provisions compatible with article 8 to ensure respect for one's private and family life, his home and his correspondence. In recognition of the changes that are required in the legislation, I laid the necessary orders to pause commencement of the relevant parts of the act to ensure that all provisions were not commenced as intended on 31 August. Since the Supreme Court judgment, I have provided Parliament and key stakeholders and practitioners with regular updates on procedural progress in regard to amending the legislation. I welcome this opportunity to bring Parliament up to date with the next steps that will be taken. Crucially, the Supreme Court ruled definitively that the principle of providing a named person for every child does not breach human rights and is compatible with EU law. The Supreme Court also described the intention of the policy as unquestionably legitimate and benign. It rejected the petitioner's argument that the legislation relates to reserved matters. So the attempt to scrap a service that can bring benefits to young people and their families in different areas of Scotland failed, and this Parliament, which passed the necessary legislation on a cross-party basis with no votes against it, was vindicated. For the avoidance of any doubt, the Government remains absolutely committed to the named person service. The Supreme Court judgment does not dilute our commitment, but it has required us to revise part of the legislation to ensure that it is compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights. We want the legislation to achieve exactly what the Supreme Court says it needs to achieve, compatibility with article 8, along with greater clarity around the information sharing provisions. I am keen to commence the provisions of this act as early as possible. However, I am also keen to pursue an inclusive approach, one that takes this Parliament, stakeholders and the wider public with it. We recognise that information sharing has been an important issue for practitioners and the public alike. We want to ensure that there is a clear consensus across Scotland on how information sharing should operate. That must include the essential principle of consent and the rare occasions when it is not appropriate to require or to seek it. That must be addressed through open dialogue. For that reason, the Scottish Government will undertake a three-month period of intense engagement in Scotland. We will take input from practitioners, parents, charities as well as young people, those who support the named person policy and those who have concerns about it. I intend to involve the officers of the Children's Commissioner and the Information Commissioner as we look to address the Supreme Court judgment effectively. In order to address the concerns raised by the Supreme Court, we will discuss the principles that should underpin the legislation and the development of a code of practice to set out how information should be shared under the legislation. That work will be taken forward by the Minister for childcare and early years and by me. Once that engagement ends and we have an agreed way to proceed, I will return to Parliament and announce the next steps in terms of legislation. However, it is my ambition to work towards a commencement date for the legislation and the provisions of August 2017. I address one final point. The judgment itself does not require current policy to change. The judgment relates only to the information sharing provisions that were intended to come into force under the 2014 act, not to current practice under GERFIC policy. Any sharing of personal information that takes place now or in the future must be done in accordance with the data protection act 1998 and the human rights act 1998. A local authority or health board can nominate a person as the named person for a particular child and to arrange for that person to be responsible within the local authority or health board for the provision of services to that child. Organisations can, within the framework of existing law, continue to deliver or engage with existing or developing named person services. My message to local authorities and health boards is a clear one. Please continue to develop and deliver a named person service in your area to make the benefits of the service available to every child who needs that service. I am all too well aware of the debilitating impact that the peddling of misinformation has on practitioners and stakeholders, and I say to them today, thank you for your efforts in providing the best support network possible for every child in our country. Ministers know that what drives you every day is doing the best you can for the children with whom you interact. The commitment to the provision of a named person service has not wavered. The commitment to enshrining all aspects of the service in legislation at the earliest possible date following appropriate and inclusive consultation is absolutely resolute. As a Parliament, we have made significant progress on the Gyrfrech agenda. That progress has been enabled and facilitated by cross-party consensus on what is important and how improvements to the life chances of Scotland's children and young people can be achieved. The Supreme Court judgment provides us with an opportunity to amend the information sharing provisions in the 2014 act in a way that improves the named person's service and reassures parents and practitioners and the wider public. It provides us with the opportunity to continue in the spirit of shared purpose and consensus to getting it right for every child. The Deputy First Minister will now take questions on the issues raised in his statement. I intend to allow 30 minutes for questions after which we move on to the next item of business. It would be helpful if members who wish to ask a question were to press the request-to-speak buttons now. I call First Liz Smith to be followed by Ian Gray. Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer, and I thank the Deputy First Minister for prior sight of the statement. I wonder if the Deputy First Minister could provide a categorical assurance this afternoon that any local authority, which was already implementing the named person policy prior to what had been the statutory implementation on the 31 of August and which was acting under Scottish Government guidance, was acting lawfully in terms of its data sharing practices. Secondly, and notwithstanding the fact that the Scottish Government is not obliged to provide its legal advice, what evidence from the information commissioner and other advisers made the Scottish Government so sure at the time of the Children and Young People's Bill that the data sharing aspect of the named person policy would be ruled compatible with article 8 of ECHR when many legal experts, including the faculty of advocates, the law society, Professor Norrie and MSPs on the education committee, raised serious concerns. Thirdly, given that the Deputy First Minister is urging local authorities to proceed with developing the policy, which in fact they cannot actually do because they do not know what it exists, could the Deputy First Minister tell us if he believes that the Scottish Government made a mistake by making a move away from the term welfare, which can be defined in statutory terms, to the term wellbeing, which has no clear definition and which as a result has lowered the possible threshold of intervention from at significant risk of harm to any minor concern about the child. Will he agree finally that the former chamber of the education committee, when he was challenged by my colleague Alex Johnson to define the term wellbeing, was entirely wrong when he said that this was a ridiculous intervention and nobody knew what they were talking about? In relation to the first point that Liz Smith has raised, I set out in my statement the current legal position, which is that if any local authority wishes to provide the service, it must ensure that it is compatible with the data protection act and the requirements of the human rights act in 1998. That is the legal framework in which the local authorities must act in designing their schemes. The point that I was making and the distinction that I was making in my statement is between the provisions that were made within the Children and Young Peoples Act 2014, which, clearly, the Supreme Court has said is required to be altered. That legal framework has not come into force, it has not been enacted, it was to come into force and the Supreme Court has said that it cannot come into force unless that is revised. Local authorities must vest their schemes in the existing legal framework that precedes that, and I cited the basis on which that should be done. On the second point that Liz Smith raised, and I am glad that she put the caveat in that we do not reveal our legal advice, because we do not reveal our legal advice, but I would point out to Liz Smith that the Parliament considered all of these issues when it legislated in 2014 and came to its conclusions. The act was then tested in the outer house of the Court of Session and the inner house of the Court of Session, and the legal challenges were dismissed in both of those courts. I do not think that it is fair for Liz Smith to say that somehow the Government has not taken due care and attention in taking forward this legislation, because we have had it tested already in two courts, the two highest courts in Scotland, and the legal challenges have been dismissed, but the Supreme Court has taken a different view in relation only to the information sharing provisions. If we look at the decision and the judgment of the Supreme Court in July, I think that the roots of that come from the thinking that has emerged on the Supreme Court, which originated in June 2014, in the handling by the Supreme Court of a case against the Chief Constable of Greater Manchester Police, where the Supreme Court attached much greater significance to the vesting of provisions in relation to the convention rights by using their term in accordance with law, and that judgment post-dated the passage of that legislation by the Scottish Parliament earlier in 2014. In answering the point about the legal strength of our arguments, I would say to Liz Smith that having had the bill considered and challenges dismissed by the inner and outer houses of the Court of Session, I think that that is a strong vindication of the legal position that Parliament took. I have cited the basis on which I think there has been an emergence of thinking within the Supreme Court, which opens up what I would consider to be a new point of analysis on convention rights in accordance with law, which post-dated the passage of the legislation here in this Parliament. On the final point, and I think that that is a very substantial point in relation to wellbeing and welfare, because it relates to one of the other terms that Liz Smith used, which was the question of threshold. I accept, and the Supreme Court judgment raises this issue with us, that if we are to—I do not take the view that it should just be about welfare, I believe that it should be about wellbeing, because that is at the heart of GERFEC, because that is what provides for the early intervention activity to address difficulties that young people face and to intervene early to try to avert them becoming more serious issues. However, there has to be appropriate threshold, and that is the issue that now has to be examined as part of the analysis that I have undertaken. I hope that that provides the clarity of what will be in the minds of the Minister for childcare in early years and myself as we go about the process of ensuring that this legislation is given absolutely secure foundations. However, with it, it fulfills its purpose, which is to be of value and as an asset to protect the wellbeing of children in Scotland and to make sure that we can deliver the best outcomes for every single one of them, because in that respect, I am an unapologetic advocate of getting it right for every child and it will drive everything that I do as the education secretary in this Parliament. I also thank the Deputy First Minister for early sight of his statement. The Deputy First Minister knows that Labour supports the principle of the name person policy. The measures that he is taking to resolve the issues over information sharing are therefore welcome. However, exactly because we want this to work, we have to face up to the fact that this policy has lost the confidence of many Scottish families. Fixing that is as important as fixing the information sharing section of the bill. Responding to the requirements of the Supreme Court judgment is a necessary but not sufficient response. To that end, we have suggested that we use the opportunity of this pause to remove 16 and 17-year-olds from the scope of the policy. To include them was a mistake. To many people, it seems absurd, given that a 16-year-old can vote, marry, work, pay tax, all as an adult. To remove them would be a strong signal that, while the Government is not surrendering on named person policy, it is listening and not only to the Supreme Court. I simply ask again whether the Deputy First Minister undertake to remove 16 and 17-year-olds from the scope of the legislation. First of all, I thank him for the welcome that he has given to the provisions that I have set out today. I also agree with him that there is a need to gain confidence in the named person policy. The way in which I have set out the argument for named person policy and where the name person policy and where it originates from in the policy framework of getting it right for every child is one illustration of how I intend to try to build that confidence about the application of that policy. Mr Gray said that he did not think that addressing the provisions and the points that were made by the Supreme Court was necessary but not sufficient. It is necessary but it is also significant in boosting confidence in the policy. If we satisfactorily address the issue that I have closed my remarks to Liz Smith about the issue of threshold, we may begin to address some of the issues that have been raised about the policy. What we will allow us to do is to respond adequately to what the Supreme Court has asked us to do to address specifically the issue of proportionality in the application of the policy and the judgments that are made in the policy. I think that we can go a long way by properly and fully addressing the requirements of the Supreme Court to build confidence in the policy. When Mr Gray set out over the summer his call for me to look again at the provision for 16 and 17-year-olds, I indicated that at that stage I would be prepared to consider that issue and I remain off that view that I will consider it. However, I make two specific points to Mr Gray on the issue. The first is that in the report from Childline today, Childline revealed that 30 per cent of the contact with Childline is from 16 to 18-year-olds expressing their vulnerability to that particular medium. Although I understand and accept the points that Mr Gray makes about the fact that 16 and 17-year-olds are able to vote and are able to join the armed forces and can do lots of other things, but there are also a lot of 16 and 17-year-olds who remain very vulnerable. We have to address that fact in our consideration. The second point that I would make is that the Parliament did not legislate for 16 and 17-year-olds to come within the scope of the named person provision on a whim. It was done because the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child defines a child as a young person up to the age of 18. Mr Gray will know from his long experience in those issues that the Government from times to times and Parliament from time to times comes in for criticism for not fulfilling international standards and points of recognition that are important in the policy process. I put those points on the record, but I will give consideration to the issue that Mr Gray has raised, because I have made clear my statement that my determination is to proceed on that issue with the objective of building consensus and to building broad agreement around that provision, and that will be the approach that I take in taking forward this policy. Before I call others, I have 11 members wishing to ask questions. Of course, I want to get them all in, so that depends on the length of the questions and, to some extent, on the length of the answers, so try to do your best. I call Rona Mackay to be followed by Adam Tomkins. I couldn't agree more with the cabinet secretary's concern about the debilitating impact of the peddling of misinformation on the morale and confidence of practitioners who, day in and day out, do one of the hardest jobs that there is that of supporting vulnerable children and families. Does the cabinet secretary therefore agree with me that the Tories should tone down their hysterical rhetoric on named person and accept the judgment of the Supreme Court, which stated that the intent of the legislation is unquestionably legitimate and benign? I think that the Supreme Court had an opportunity to look at all of the provisions here and they have come to their judgment. I think that what I am trying to do is to take forward the approach that is required to ensure that this legislation can be implemented as quickly as possible and to make sure that the public servants who are keen to make sure that they can provide the best possible connected services for the young people of Scotland and addressing the needs that they are able to proceed on this basis. I will press on in the fashion that I have set out and I hope that we can have a political debate around the subject that is focused on addressing the issues of substance that come out of the Supreme Court judgment and work to resolve those as speedily as we possibly can do. Thank you very much. I thank the Deputy First Minister for his statement and indeed for keeping Parliament appropriately informed during the course of the recess. The Deputy First Minister has identified that it was the information-sharing provisions of the named person scheme that the Supreme Court ruled unlawful in its judgment in July and he has explained that he proposes to remedy these defects even if he said nothing about how he proposes to do this. I said to the Deputy First Minister that it is not just about thresholds, it is also about definition and in particular the definition of wellbeing. The Supreme Court ruled that the relevant provisions were not in accordance with law because the Supreme Court found that they lacked clarity and certainty and the lack of clarity and the lack of certainty goes to the heart of this question of wellbeing. The Supreme Court said a lot more in its judgment. It did not focus on information sharing alone. The court stated that, even after the information-sharing provisions are sorted out, the named person scheme is still in danger of constituting a disproportionate and therefore unlawful interference with family life in many cases. Paragraph 100 of the judgment, the court states that the operation of the scheme is likely often to be disproportionate, those are the court's words, and that is even after the information-sharing provisions are rewritten so that they are in accordance with law. My question is why has the Deputy First Minister's statement today failed to address that aspect of the court's ruling? I think that my statement has addressed that issue because I have acknowledged the importance of addressing the issue of thresholds and proportionality. I take a different view to Mr Tomkins about the question of definition. I agree that the court says that the provisions need to be set out in accordance with law. That is now essentially a habitual requirement of Supreme Court judgments, and that is something that postdates the passage of the legislation. The definition of wellbeing is that we have defined wellbeing in the guidance documents that the Government has set out. The Supreme Court had that draft guidance in front of it, but the guidance does not constitute law. I accept that point. If I can perhaps do a dangerous thing of trying to summarise what the Supreme Court judgment was saying, it was almost saying, get your guidance into law and then address the issue, if I can perhaps not in the Supreme Court language, but that is what I would take from the provisions that they have put in place. There is a job of work to be done to define that, I accept that, and that will then make it in accordance with law, which will then address the issues that the Supreme Court has raised with us. The issue of proportionality is important because it will address directly the question that Mr Tomkins raises about what occasions and what circumstances might the information-sharing provisions be utilised. That is why I set out the policy position in the context of GERFEC. A very important point, which I know is perhaps not part of the narrative that has been used in the debate to criticise name person. There are plenty of families who want to go to a name person to get the support that they require, because people generally do not come to me at my surgeries to tell me how well connected the public services have been. They generally come to my surgeries to say, could you get the public services better connected for me, Mr Swinney? There will be an opportunity for members of the public to use the service to get the support that they require to assist their young people, and that is a good thing. I welcome the cabinet secretary's announcement regarding an intensive engagement programme. Can he provide more detail about how he intends to involve health visitors, teachers, parents, carers and, crucially, children and young people in that activity? The First Minister and I will spend a considerable amount of time over the course of the next few months in direct engagement with a variety of professionals, parents and young people, and with people who have been critical of the policy to find ways in which we might be able to address the substantive issues. There were some people whom I cannot reach in this, who are just implacably opposed to it. Even with the persuasive skills that I would like to think I have, there will be some people whom I will not manage to reach. I do hope that we can have a fair climate to address the issues raised in the Supreme Court, and the minister and I will engage in that substantively to make sure that that is the case before coming back to Parliament with further detail on how we will take forward the legislation. I welcome the First Minister's acknowledgement that addressing the point of confidence and faith that people have in the policy is as important as addressing the legal point. Teachers and health visitors all along have raised their concerns about the impact of named person on the time that they have to do their main job. Now that we have a pause, will Mr Swinney use it to find the resource and implement it so that those crucial professionals have the time and resource available to do the main job of caring and educating our children? If I take the last few words of Mr Johnson's question about teachers having the opportunity to care for and educate our children, that is exactly what I want our teachers to be able to do, which is why I am investing so much of my time in ensuring that they are liberated from bureaucracy to enable them to do that. However, when I go round the schools of Scotland, I talk to teachers whose conversation with me is not just about educational attainment, it is about their judgment about children when they walk in the door in the morning and what they need, what support, what nurture they need before they can even think about any learning. In some schools that I have gone into, I have been overwhelmed by the empathy and, frankly, the love of teachers for children. The first port to recall is to put the toaster on as opposed to to get a book out. I do not think that we should try to compartmentalise this, that somehow the named person is an added burden on to teachers. Teachers are looking at the children for whom they are responsible every minute of the day, trying to establish what support they require, what difficulties they are facing and how they can assist them to fulfil their potential. We should congratulate our teaching profession for doing exactly that. What I do not want is for us to have a debate that suggests that, somehow, being a named person is not something that almost comes naturally to the role of the teaching profession in assessing the wellbeing of young people in their care and taking every step that they can to enhance the wellbeing of young people as a consequence of their productive intervention. What reassurance can the cabinet secretary give parents and families about their interests in the process? What will happen if they are unhappy with the named person service? Conversely, what might happen should a family refuse to engage with the service? As a convener of the Education and Skills Committee, can I ask what role the cabinet secretary sees that committee playing in this progress through Parliament? I am sure that it is not for me to specify the agenda of the Education and Skills Committee, but I am sure that they will tell me what they want and I suspect that the way it will work. I am obviously very happy to engage with the committee in any way on those questions. In relation to Mr Dornan's point on the role of parents, clearly the provisions of law in this respect have not been challenged by the court with the exception that they suggest that we could better specify the opportunities that are for parents to essentially opt out of the provisions of the named person. That is obviously an issue that I will reflect on as part of the conversations that we take forward and I will have adequate opportunity to discuss those issues with parents, groups and representatives around the country. Alison Johnstone, to be followed by John Mason, is Johnstone, please. Thank you. I welcome the fact that the Supreme Court judgment has moved the debate on. Does the cabinet secretary agree that those opposing the principle of named person are on the wrong side of the judgment, and that what we must all focus on now is addressing the shortcomings regarding information sharing? I agree with that point. The Supreme Court did not strike down the legislation. It described its aims as unquestionably legitimate and benang. I have confronted the issues openly to Parliament today with the information sharing provisions. Within minutes of the judgment, I acknowledge that the Government would have to resolve those issues, and we now must concentrate on doing that and setting out a process to Parliament that will enable us to do exactly that. I look forward to dialogue with members of all parties about how we can most effectively take forward those provisions. John Mason, to be followed by Tavish Scott. I wonder whether the Government can confirm that it is essential that every child and every family in Scotland should be able to get help, advice and support if they need it. Therefore, it is absolutely essential that every person that is named available for every child and every family, just as there is an ambulance available for every child and every family. The Deputy First Minister I think that that is a very fair and realistic way of bringing this policy to life. That this is a resource that is available for families to call upon if they require that assistance. To repeat one of the comments that I made earlier on, I generally do not meet people who are coming to see me because they feel that public services have been well connected. They often come to see me because they need me to try to weave those services together for them. The point that Mr Mason makes is a fair point that the resources that are there to be utilised by families to ensure that the wellbeing of their children is most effectively supported by the public sector in any way that we can. I am sure that he is familiar with clause 95 of the Supreme Court judgment, which says that parents will be given the impression that they must accept the advice or services that they are offered. Their failure to co-operate with such a plan will be taken to be evidence of a risk of harm. Both as a minister but also if I may say so as a father, does he find that as concerning as I do? Does that not show the need for the scope of the examination of this policy that he is going to undertake in the coming three months, a policy that is now going to be delayed a year, to recognise the concerns of teachers and of health visitors given the 200 risk indicators that he talked about in the debate earlier in the summer, and therefore the need for the scope of that inquiry to recognise all those points and address them fully? Mr Scott will understand the importance that I attach to the democratic decisions of Parliament. Parliament is legislated for this act. It has put in place the provisions. They have been tested by the two courts in Scotland, and they have been tested by a third court in the United Kingdom, and the Supreme Court, the two courts in Scotland have said that the legal challenges are not substantiated. The Supreme Court has raised particular issues with us about information sharing provisions. Mr Scott will understand my democratic point that I think it is important because I want to operate within the rule of law and because I want to operate within the scope of acting on behalf of Parliament's democratic decisions why I am focusing on addressing the issues raised by the Supreme Court in their judgment. The point that Mr Scott makes about the provision of parents is a point that is illustrated by the Supreme Court's view that the sense that individuals can opt out of this is not perhaps as well understood or as well expressed as it could be. I will certainly consider issues of that nature, but I stress that we must be respectful of the democratic decisions of Parliament, which in 2014 decided that this would be the shape of the legislation and the Supreme Court have identified the areas where we specifically addressed that point. Gil Paterson to be followed by Monica Lennon and Mr Paterson. Many thanks, Presiding Officer. As a long-standing MSP who remembers well supporting this policy as an opposition MSP when introduced by the Labour Liberal Democrat Administration, I welcome that the cabinet secretary focused so much of his statement on the wider GIFIC policy. One of the most important aspects of the legislation in part 3, which requires local authorities to plan children's services effectively, can he advise when that will come into effect? I welcome the point that Mr Paterson has made, because it illustrates the fact that many of us have, in both our capacities as an opposition member and as a long-standing Opposition member. I supported this policy and have advocated it for many years. I was enthusiastically supporting our predecessors in bringing forward the policy framework. It is important that we set within that long-term policy of getting it right for every child. To answer Mr Paterson's specific point, part 3 will come into effect on 7 October, which requires local authorities and relevant health boards to have their first children's services plans in place from 1 April 2017, and those plans will cover a three-year period from that date. Monica Lennard, we follow by Fulton MacGregor. Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. It is vital and important that the Scottish Government seeks to build the confidence and trust of parents and young people across the country, as well as staff on the front line. I am pleased that the Deputy First Minister recognises that. Can I ask the Deputy First Minister how the Scottish Government intends to engage young people during the consultation, and will that include 16 and 17-year-olds specifically? The Deputy First Minister will certainly do so. We will take steps through a number of the channels of discussion and communication that we have. We are very lucky to have a whole range of different organisations in Scotland that are well connected with young people in Scotland. We have various forums that exist in which that can happen, and ministers and officials will engage very substantively on those points. The issue that Monica Lennard specifically raised about 16 and 17-year-olds is a material issue for us to consult with that group specifically, recognising the fact that I can understand the perspective that has been put forward by Mr Gray on the issue. Equally, Monica Lennard will understand the perspective that I see from the data about the degree of vulnerability that exists among 16 and 17-year-olds. However, I give her the assurance that we will complete that exercise. Fulton MacGregor, please. Thank you, Presiding Officer. I think that it is important to go back to basics in this, and to remember exactly why the legislation matters. Can the cabinet secretary therefore outline what difference this policy will make to the wellbeing of children, but particularly Scotland's most vulnerable? I think that it is important that we go back to the roots of this policy, because I encounter around the country—I was at a school this morning in Glasgow, which was a splendid example of how we need to identify, at the earliest possible opportunity, weaknesses and deficiencies that young people may be facing and to address them and to intervene as quickly as possible. I met a wonderful young man this morning who went to this particular school when he faced acute difficulties, but the early intervention and the support that he has had has made a transformative impact on that young man. It was because of good early intervention that that has been achieved and a tremendous amount of care and nurture in the intervening years. I think that the point that Mr MacGregor makes is a substantive one, that we need to take early steps to support young people as effective as we can, and to ensure that they are able to overcome difficulties and obstacles that they may face. That is at the heart of the thinking behind getting it right for every child, and we will underpin the development of the policies that we take forward. I will squeeze you in. Cabinet Secretary acknowledges the judgment of the Supreme Court, which is to be welcomed. However, in response to Liz Smith's question, the Deputy First Minister failed to make clear the position of local authorities, if I heard them correctly, who, acting in good faith in piloting the scheme, may have breached ECHR regulations while following Scottish Government advice and guidelines. Where do piloting local authorities stand in terms of liability if they are pursued on the Supreme Court ruling having followed Scottish Government advice and guidance? I do not agree with Mr Scott that I did not answer the question because I answered it very fully, I thought, but what I said in my answer to Liz Smith and what I said in my statement was that any local authority—what has been identified as being deficient are provisions in the Children and Young People Act 2014. Any local authority providing a service up until the passage of that legislation or up until today must be acting in accordance with the Data Protection Act 1998 and the Human Rights Act 1998. Any legal advice that went to local authorities in relation to the design of their schemes would have to be compatible with those two provisions. That was the answer that I gave to Liz Smith in her first question. It is the answer that I gave in my statement. It is the answer that I gave to Mr Scott. It is the only answer that I can give because that is the legal framework in which local authorities are required to operate. That concludes questions to the Deputy First Minister. Before we move to the next item of business, I will allow the front bench to take their places.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray, feeling good, Lewis. We're going to take a look at the German Dax like we usually do. I posted the two different charts showing the three drives to a bottom one. The second one is very informative post, folks. We had a 150-point move up, a 150-point move down, and it's going back up again, holding its own in here. This is really good price action for a bottom. We've seen this pattern before, and it certainly looks like there's a bottom forming in the German Dax. We've seen it on the longer-term timeframe too, so we need to keep a very close eye on that, especially with all the news coming out of Washington, which this morning early is not very good. Now, if we take a look at the footsie, you'll notice on the footsie you're looking at a four-hour chart that covers the last several months, and you'll notice we went down, we completed the ABCD pattern here. We rallied about 60 points off that bottom, so that is holding also. My assumption is, and this is my assumption, and that's my opinion, and we know what opinions are. We're probably going to rally after this China thing is all over. That's my guess. I mean, even if they don't do anything, they'll probably rally. That's the way the market's acting, and I can't say anything more than that. Let's take a look at something quickly. I want to cover the stock indices first, but there's an interesting thing. We've got the World Federation of Wrestling, i.e., the IPO for Uber is coming out today. It's getting just as much press as the IWW, the International Federation of Wrestling, and that means there's a lot of people interested in it, but let's take a look at where we are here with the lift. This is my assumption. Follow me, see if it makes any sense. We opened on this thing back in late March. It came in at 88. It's now got down to 52 and change. That was the perfect ABCD pattern, 52 and change. We then rallied up to 56 yesterday. We're trading around 54 right now. Folks, this is another type of these ride-sharing deals, and Uber's going to come out. If you're going to do an IPO on this, I would buy the lift, and I'll tell you why. First of all, you've got a completed pattern so you can control your risk. If you buy Uber on the opening, may the force be with you, because that thing could do anything. My assumption here is that they're underpriced. They underpriced Uber. That means they're going to bump it up on the opening to get these people to put a few shackles in their pocket. But that's the way I'm looking at it. It might be totally wrong, but the fact is that with the lift, you know where you are.  With Uber, oh my God, anything could happen. Look what happened to lift. It went from 88 to 66 on the first day, so you don't want to get caught. This way, you can control your risk. Anyway, Monday, we will look at it to see how it turned out, to see if I have more egg on my face, and I usually do, but let's pay a little bit of attention to that. Now, yesterday, in the stock indices futures, if you remember, we were talking about the stock indices futures. We were looking at this level down here that was very important at the 2835 level. You'll notice that we completed that ABCD pattern quite nicely. And then what's happened so far last night and early this morning, you'll notice if we take a look at this same thing in the E-mini S&P, we're looking at a market that could bottom around 2947. That's a completed Gartley at the 78% level. That's what it looks like. If you remember this level, folks, 2830, 2835, if you remember, we posted the information from our good friend, Rich Anderson, and that was the history of the gaps in the S&P. And you'll notice there you are. You see the very first blue line, 2836. And the bottom last night was 2835. So it filled that gap. It then rallied 25 handles from there and it's been chopping around, but it did fill that first gap. These gaps will be filled. But the $64 question is, will they be filled in my lifetime? That's what I don't know. It's interesting to see the news that's coming out because it is relatively negative. And they say there could be a deal. There could be a deal. Yeah, that's, if you believe that, oh, I still have two shares of the Brooklyn Bridge, but that's just my opinion. That's neither here nor there. Just remember that. That's all it's about. We have Bill Meridian as our guest at the half hour. And he asked to come on, folks. And that means he's got some really good information because when Bill has something, you want to pay attention to him. So he just got back from Saudi Arabia and he's got some, what he thinks is important information for us. So that'll be at the half hour. We all always enjoy seeing him. We want to talk just a little bit more about the Bitcoin because it's still starting to rally. We're above the 60,000 level and we could easily continue to go higher. We're waiting for a correction in the Bitcoin to see what that next level is going to be. We do not trade this instrument. We don't plan on trading it, but we do follow it because it's in the news and the cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology appear to be something that's going to be very important in the future. That's not coming from me. I was the one that was not sure about color television sets until 1983. I wasn't sure about microwave ovens until last year. So I'm a little behind the curve when it comes to these long-term trends. So keep an eye on what the prices are doing. That'll give you an idea of what some of the stuff is going on. Okay, now let's take a quick look here at one other thing that we want to look at that I think is very important today. And that is the, when you got to know when you're wrong on these things, folks, I want to show you this chart on the live cattle. You'll see here, the live cattle, we thought there was going to be a bottom at the 61% retracement. We went through that like melted butter. We went through the 78% retracement like melted butter. That's why when you're trading these things, folks, you've got to determine how much you're going to risk. And in cattle, you don't have to risk more than any penny and a half, which is between four and $600. But if you'd have bought it at the 61% retracement at 111, now it's trading at 107, you're sitting there with a $2,400 loss. And not only that, but it destroys your trading soul. And that's what the key is. You just take the small loss, move on. That's flat out the bottom line, what you're looking for. So that's what I, to be, oh, someone's asking a question about getting the money out of China.  And that is, it's a big deal over there, folks, is how they get money out of China. The easiest way they do it is to just bring cash over the border and that can be done. The biggest real estate deal for a single family home was done last year in Hong Kong up on Victoria Peak, which is the nicest place in all of Hong Kong. It's at the top of the mountain. You can see Macau, China, about 300 of the islands.  It's usually above the clouds. And that home was a 5,500 square feet, four bedroom, five bath, three car garage, swimming pool, and tennis court went for a cool $450 million US for a 5,500 square foot house. And it was paid for in cash, brought in on pallets. They actually had pictures of those things. I probably should go in and Google them, but it took about four big pallets to bring the cash in, so for cash, US money,<PHONE_NUMBER>. We'll be right back. The TAS Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. 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You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching or watching, and you'll find the TAS Profile Scanner under the Services section under the Services section. Sign up now for only $97 a month with a risk-free 30-day money-back guarantee, and you'll find the TAS Profile Scanner under the Services section under the Services section. A much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions, we even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com, educating investors. I posted a sequence of charts from the Japanese yen-US dollar cross-rate pointing out the double top that we had at that 78.6 level. We've now come down and touched the exact 382, taking out last week's low and not going anywhere. To me, I interpret that as there were not any sell orders below that level, and so I'm assuming the 382 level is going to hold as long as we stay above that 99 level. I think this has got a possibility to rally. We've been in a very tight trading range here, but it still looks like it has the possibility to go a little bit higher. The key that I'm watching on the foreign currencies is the US dollar and the Euro, because there are mirror images of each other. The Euro is trading at 112.40 right now. In order to get the trend sharply higher in the Euro, it needs to get above 112.90 to 113. And above 113, it is flat bullish on the Euro and bearish on the US dollar. I had a little test this week on the importance of what was happening with the US dollar. Fortunately, I had several people that did their homework, and I'll share with you what we were watching here. If you look at this US dollar index on a long-term weekly chart, you'll notice here that last week we went up and we made a perfect 61% retracement there at that 98.10 level, and the market immediately turned down. We're now one handle below that already. We're trading at 97.10 right now. That means to me that this is most probably a very important inflection point. Now, if you'll bear with me for just a moment, let's go into our memory bank and take a look at this chart that we're looking at, the US dollar index. If you look at the far left over there in 2015, look at that as the left shoulder and look at the head that occurred in December of 2016 and where we are now could be the right shoulder and it is much lower than the left shoulder right at a 61% retracement level. Folks, if that's correct, this thing could really have a bad day in here and start down quite a bit. On the second hand, if we get above 98.10 now, again, after this pretty good correction we've had, that will tell us that we're going to be going higher in the US dollar and lower in the euro. I am still bearish the euro, but we might get one heck of a rally out of here if these levels continue to hold. Right now, all it's doing is just bouncing around between 1.11.10 and 1.13 in the euro and that's really what we're watching. We've had several questions about the grains. Folks, the grains are still in the sewer. In fact, is there really in the sewer? Even December corn, which has tried to hold up, is still at a major ABCD pattern with no takers. So everybody in the grain trade is scared to death about what's going to happen. Farmland prices have actually dropped a lot during this thing. So I know El Presidente is not going to be happy with the farmers how they're going to respond to him on election day, but this is the real world. So pay attention because when these things do turn, they are going to turn with a vengeance. And so far, the vengeance is theirs, not ours. So we've got to pay attention to it. We tried one time about two weeks ago nibbling at the beans with about a $200 loss and that was the smartest thing to do. The smarter thing to do was to go short at that time, but then the risk on that was a little bit more than I wanted to take. That brings us to another question that someone brought to us last night. And that is, do I reverse when these patterns fail? And the answer is no. And the reason for that is I'm not a very good reversal type trader. It's just ingrained in my psychic. I move on and go to the next patterns. I'll do if that pattern returns bearish. And I'll look at it to go short, but I don't reverse. The other question, we'll finish up here with this gold and then we'll go on to a couple other things. I was extremely bullish gold at the 1255 to 1260 level. We have not got to that level yet. I still believe that we have a chance to get down there. And the reason for that is Silver has an outstanding target of $14.40 per ounce. We're trading at $14.78 and $14.80 in change or something like that this morning. But if we can get that Silver down there and gold to come down to that level, then that's going to put all the numbers together. Right now I see little bits and pieces, but they're not tradable for any significant amount. I mean, they can trade $0.05 or $0.10 in Silver, but that's not what I'm interested in. I'm interested in something much larger if we can catch that. We've done some big gold trades recently. They all turned out extremely well, but this one has just not done it. I mean, we've not got a valid signal. We've got some signals, but they haven't turned out to make anything. The best they could do is break even. So, you know, you just got to wait.  You have to have patience. Okay, let's move on to one other one that some folks have asked about. I've already covered the lift. Yes, I did. Okay, I covered that. I covered that. I covered that. Oh, it was about the crude oil. Let's just get this up here. I want to say it because I think crude oil has had a chance here. We got back up to that $62.85. That makes that a $1.35 pattern. We're now trading below $62.00. I believe any move below $60.90, and the crude oil is going to send this thing into a spiral to the downside. And on the second part of this, if it gets above $63.00 a barrel, I would think that this would be a pretty good bottom in crude oil. We could go a lot higher. But the thing is, we made that bottom two days ago, folks, and it's gone nowhere. That's not a very good sign if you're bullish. So there's a lot of resistance up here at that $62.50 level in July crude oil. So that's another one that is on the watch list that should be closely watched. Now, today's Friday, folks, there's no reason in the world to try to buy grains today. I mean, if you want to, that's certainly up to you, but your risk is going to have to be quantified that they can open a whole lot lower on Monday morning if something happens that these Chinese talks get worse than they already are. So I don't need to take that risk. I don't think you do either, but if you're that type of person, then do it. If you want to take a risk, look at that lift. The lift is trading at $54. They're going to bring out supposedly Uber at $45. That means it's going to open a lot higher than that. But if Uber doesn't open higher than $45, that's going to be a failed IPO. And this is their banner, folks. This is the flagship of the IPOs. They've been waiting on this for weeks and months. So I don't think these boys on Wall Street are going to let this thing go down. But what do I know? We'll have to be able to see. Okay, Maria is going along the ESP here. So if there's any problems, give her a call. Her number is<PHONE_NUMBER>. So remember,<PHONE_NUMBER>. I think she has a recorded message on there, but I'm not sure. Folks, that is a bogus phone number. I hope you realize that. 555 is the movie numbers that you always get when they give movie numbers in the thing. There's been a few times where they actually have given the actual phone numbers out, which has always been a lot of a problem, but we'll have to worry about that. Now, there's a commodity of, oh, I don't have time to do it. I wanted to, oh, I'm sorry, I'll give them your Western Union code number, too. It's princess.com, isn't it, Maria? Okay, Sarah says hi to you, Maria.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Larry Pezzavento has just started his brand new service, Fibonacci 24-7, and he's already delivering content to his subscribers on a daily basis when the markets opened, and even on weekends. Each Monday, you'll receive Larry's written report that provides detailed commentary and a summary on the charts and videos that Larry sends out. And throughout the week, when warranted, Larry will send out via charts or videos or both the key markets that he is watching during the day. This will be up to the date active trading information that will help you in your daily trading. In Larry's first week alone, he sent out 25 charts, six videos, and a full report to his subscribers in just one week. If you're a technical trader that uses patterns and retracements to trade, then Larry's service Fibonacci 24-7 is something that you must try. Right now, new subscribers can get a full 30-day money back guarantee. With nothing to risk, sign up now to Larry Pezzavento's Fibonacci 24-7 by visiting the front page of TFN.com under Trading Newsletters. 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Tell the folks what you did there, Bill. Because you were an analyst. I know that, and you did training also, but you did a fabulous job. But can you have time to... I was a portfolio manager and strategist. Okay. So I worked in the North American Bond and Equity Department, and I did the market forecasting for them for 10 years, and I ran the technology portfolio, and I worked in the N.D., late 91 through 2000. At the end of that time, I switched to external management. I was there for the last three or four years. Is that operation still going? And today, everybody who was 25 years old is now 45, 50 retiring, or is some sort of a governor of the central bank, ministry of the economy. So I go down from time to time to say hello, get a holiday and a suntan, and find out what's going on from their perspective. Wow. Do you have any information from that perspective right now? What's going on? You got a lot of Ramco's coming out with that big thing, and plus that Khashoggi thing just blew over, didn't it? Nobody even talks about it anymore. Well, that... Things like that they don't talk about. We talk mostly about business and politics, but the economy there has been very slow for two years. I was there 15 months ago, and they had just laid off about over 200,000 people in the UAE alone. But property prices are now down 40% from the 2014 high. You can buy in Abu Dhabi right now a two-bedroom apartment for 700,000 dirhams, which is about $200,000. For one million dirhams, you can get a three-bedroom townhouse that's got an attached garage, and that's about... Oh, let me see, that's about $300,000. Wow. So your economy is very slow. The authorities reduced their headcount from 1900 to 1400. When I was there, it was 1200. And the institutions in the Middle East are themselves selling out of Middle Eastern markets. They're saying they haven't made any money. The markets have gone sideways, so they're selling their own markets. Maybe that's a contrary opinion by signal, but I don't really know if it is. And the major concerns are Iran and Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia, the relaxing rules, they have cinemas, women are allowed to drive, travel restrictions have been dropped, and this has hurt Dubai because people could easily get to Dubai and Bahrain, but now they can go other places. The new ruler, Salman, is very popular with the young people, but not with the old traditional people because he's relaxing everything too much. He told me there's even some talk of permitting the consumption of alcohol for expats in Saudi Arabia, as they do in Abu Dhabi. But I think that's a way down the road. The UAE is... Well, when I was there, I won the young guys. I said, when oil prices go and rally up to $70 to $100, they all told me, no, no, it'll never get above $35 in oil. I said, you can't pump enough oil to satisfy India and China. So anyway, I said, when that happens, I hope you don't go wild with big spending projects, which is what they did. So when they say, well, prices are too low, what they're saying is that we plan projects that are too big. And so now they're cutting back. Even though the hotel vacancy rate is 50%, they're still building, but some Pfizer gents have shuttered projects. So you see Ival Construction Projects. And they're really starting now to reassess their spending. And they've been supporting countries for many years, and they're getting tired of doing it, because it's like if you put somebody on welfare, they don't have much incentive to get off of it. And so they warned me that it's not in the headlines yet, but they said, they didn't end Morocco. They said they feel from their standpoint that these countries are very unstable. And of course, the ones that are already in the news, Algeria, they're having riots there, but they're very strong.  So that's why they don't have any problems. And I haven't been there, I was there three years ago, but the group that I, the people that I go see, they visit there regularly. And they're a little concerned about their projects there. And next year, of course, the southern Pluto conjunction in January will be very close to the Saudi sun. And as soon as it finishes the Saudi sun, it'll transit over Jupiter and the Ascendant. So this is the same situation I mentioned of Pluto going over Jupiter and the telescope of China. So I think they're headed for, I think there may be an attempt to remove this young ruler from power next year, in January, anywhere between November and January. And after that, I think they have a financial crisis similar to that of China. And that's another cause of this 2020 to 2022 pullback that I'm seeing. And there were people there from Sudan. It was in Del Haroscope and it was up on YouTube that this eclipse coming up at 10 degrees cancer was right opposite the sun of the ruler of the country and it was on the day that the guy took power. So I had written in a 2019 forecast that I thought he would fall from power and of course he did. So the people from Sudan, they just said, we took care of that and they wouldn't talk about it any further. But my host there, there was a book fair. So there were many scholars from India, Iran, Saudi Arabia and then it was Ramadan. And so Ramadan, of course, he has to sit in the Majlis and receive visitors every night and so you don't know who you're going to meet. There were American engineers in there building projects in the Maldives and looking for investment and so on. Bill, do you have to follow religious protocol like when you meet someone over there that you have to be on a prayer mat or do you have to wear anything different or how do you greet them? Do they shake hands? I shake hands with all my Muslim friends. That's what I thought, so I wasn't sure. No, there's no I got there in 1990, I didn't knew very little of anything and they're trained throughout that region to be very superb hosts. So they're very understanding if you make a mistake, forgive you.  I said, no, I'll eat with you guys and if they scooped the food up at their hands and I would try to teach me to do it, I kept dropping it which amused everybody. Bill, you're Italian. That comes natural. Yeah, that's right. So what are they doing now with their investments, Bill? Are they focusing on Aramco? I haven't heard anybody talk about Aramco, but they're We've got to pay a few bills. Could you stay with us for another segment? Yeah. Thanks, Bill, Meridian, Cycles Research, Fianna Austria folks, right back,<PHONE_NUMBER>. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. 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Bill, I have a question from one of our listeners out of Philadelphia. He said, didn't the MBS dispose of their competitors in the second half of 2017? I'm sorry, what is the acronym stand for? The MBS, I don't know what is the MBS stands for. I was supposed to ask this verbatim and that's what I'm doing. question for Bill, did not air apparent MBS already disposed of his competitors in the second half of 2017? The Saudi young ruler, I guess it's his handle that they use MBS. Yeah, from what I've heard, some of them he did, but I think, you know, there are elements outside the country that they have to be careful of them because it's a very, most of those countries are very traditional. Abu Dhabi is not. Abu Dhabi is already already relaxed. It's always Oman. Is Kuwait still a factor over there? I mean, they still have several friends over in Kuwait that still like it, but I don't know how political is or anything. So I don't really know that much about it. Do you ever get over there? Yeah, well, no, I haven't been there in, I think, six years. And as far as I'm concerned, about Iran and making money. And I was at the economy is very slow. You go outside the Abu Dhabi mall, you usually have to wait for a taxi. And there was no waiting line. And I went, most of the restaurants were fairly empty. And so they are really hurting there. And apparently, Amazon is already popular. So it's really hurting the retail. And the financial institutions, well, I could write a book about this, but I'm not going to bother. I went there in 1990. They wanted somebody who had fundamental and technical experience. They wanted to take to account market movements more. So I did that. I successfully ran the technology sector of the portfolio. And I mean, to give you an example, they called me up to the managing director's office, the guy at the top. And he had hired these two guys, one who's an Arab who didn't know anything. And the other guy who'd been fired from all his jobs due to the poor performance of his portfolios is now a friend of mine. He's an Englishman. And why is the department not doing well? And I said, well, 58% of the market cap of this $6, $7 billion portfolio is invested in stocks with declining relative strength versus the benchmark, which we're supposed to beat. To this day, I don't think they still understood. I don't think they understood what I said. I said, if outperforming the market is one outperforming S&P is one of the primary, that's our objective, then before you buy a stock, it should have positive relative strength. If it has negative relative strength, that means the rest of the world disagrees with your positive view of the fundamentals. And you should at least, excuse me, ask yourself why. And when they asked me why I was doing well compared to everybody else, I said, well, I have 35 stocks down from 52. And 30 have positive relative strength, not only versus the S&P, but versus the S&P technology index, which is what I measured against. And this just sort of flew over everybody's head. And I said, well, what about the fundamentals? I said, you're not being paid for book value for cubic centimeter or being paid on relative strength, and they still don't get it. So eventually, they were giving up as the director of the central bank said, my old friend Mubarak, he said, well, look all the trouble we had here. I said, well, Mubarak, you had trouble because you're not listening to the market. That's why you hired me. So I tell you what the market tells me. And everybody says, well, Bill's trying to tell everybody what to do. I said, no, I'm telling you what the market's telling me. And so anyway, this is still very pervasive. I went to NYU for a BS and for an MBA. Stern School is now one of the best known schools on the planet. And we got the relative strength, got like 15 to 30 minutes of treatment, 15 to 30 minutes. You guys, well, relative strength is this, but you don't know how long it's going to last. So I as well as anybody ever done any studies like that. Well, now they have to some degree. And I'm a young guy who's a PhD, Chinese from Hong Kong, met me at Rutgers. I got a call. He said, can I take you to lunch? I said, yeah, sure. And I went to New York and he said, I want to thank you. He said, you were really right. What you said about relative strength. I said, yeah, I got a job with Prudential Securities. And they've also made me an assistant professor at Stevens here where he graduated from. He said, you were right. He says, that's exactly what the big institution wants to know. And you suggested a lot of studies. I'm surprised. Why isn't all this stuff been implemented? I said, that's a good question. I said, I'll make a prediction. When you hit my age, 70, you're going to be asking yourself the same thing because it just never sinks in. So that was still there. They're largely 70 to 80 percent of the funds are indexed, but they do no market timing.  What are you seeing in the US stock market right now, Bill? I know we showed the folks your cycles that you're looking at. So yeah, well, I had a turning point, I think, projected for the third, but the market, I think, actually topped on the first. And so I got a little thrown by this and I was traveling and, you know, when you're not sitting in front of the screen, it has an effect.  So anyway, on Monday, the market came down and rallied, you know, it was down 50. Then it was only down 13. So I waited another day. And finally, by Wednesday, Thursday, my next projected turning point after the third is the 20th. And the only conclusion I can come to is that we're down into the 20th. And to give you an example, I just looked at the AII Investors poll, which just on the May 5th, it went from 33 and a half bulls to 39 and it dropped 46% bears to 39.6. That is a very big one-week drop.  So I just took the numbers down from last night. We went from 39% bulls to 43.1 and from 39.6% bears to 33.7. After the week we've had, after those three days, the number of bulls has gone up. And you know, Larry, sentiment is if you're not bearish enough, the market's going to decline enough until you get very bearish. So to me, this is adding fuel to the fire here. And as for price levels, I think I sent you that chart. If you just look at normal retracement levels of the December to April rally and also the most recent rally March up through late April. And if you look at retracement levels, the first retracement level that I see this comment to both is a 28.05. And the one below that is about 27.20. But I think 28.05 is probably going to hold and we'll probably hit that level by May 20th, which is only 10 days away. And with this kind of volatility, it could be there this afternoon. You never know. How about the situation for our El Presidente, DJT, what's going on? Well, it's like I said, I see it's, there's the eclipse in January opposed the sun in the horoscope of the beginning of the investigation, which means it knocked it down. But the next eclipse is on the sun. And so we've got, as I said, they left enough nuggets spread in the Mueller report, which is actually, even though the Democrats are screaming that they should release the whole thing, it was the Democrats who passed the law saying that you cannot release the whole thing for security reasons. So what they did is they made it available. There's a room in the Senate or the Congress in Washington where you can go in the Democrats or Republicans can go in and read it. And thus far, two Republicans have gone in to read it and no, no Democrats. So it is available to them. So all the people who are screaming is a lot of nonsense. And they're trying to, now they're attacking Barr because if Barr follows the law, he can put a lot of these people in jail because Comey knew that the, the information he gave the FISA court was false. He gave it to them anyway. So he's liable and they're, they're now attacking Barr. Hey, listen, thanks for joining us, my friend.  So have a safe May and hopefully we'll have you on towards the end of May. Thanks a lot, folks. I'm Steve Rhodes. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking the best of the best in everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. 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Okay folks I posted the weekly chart of the E-mini S&P showing you that rounding top one three one two three pattern and so far with the big down move we had we closed at 2950 we're now trading at 2860 that's down about 100 handles in one week and the importance of that low at 2830 cannot be underestimated that was the gap on the the daily chart the very first profit objective we hit that we've rallied a little bit it's very important that we stay above that today if it doesn't you know the stocks are going to be down big time today and that means on Monday it's not going to look very good regardless of what the news is but as we know last Sunday the news changed overnight and the market gapped down on Monday so there's always a possibility that something crazy would happen however all of these indices that we're looking at the transportation utilities Dow Jones Nasdaq every single one of them is in a topping or a divergence pattern that's not a good sign for long term that long term could only be two or three weeks what we're watching to see is what our first 38% retracement is in this move and that comes in at around 2500 I believe in the E-mini S&P so it's a long way to go just to get to the 382 excuse me that's 2650 in the S&P not 2550 but anyway that's one of the things that we're watching to see what that correction would be regarding the bonds I believe we've got a chance one more time to push the bonds up to maybe 14910 14915 and then we'll roll over from that level which is the 78% level keep an eye on that Japanese yen has a lot of support at that 10940 level we're trading about 20 hands or 20 points above that so if it can stay above 10940 it has a very bullish bias but if we go below 10940 in that dollar yen that would be a very very negative sign and it would tell us that we're most probably going to go a lot lower in that 78% level where it made a double top at 113 and change means that it's there for quite a while so live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless


In the last episode, we talked about how seeing, hearing, and remembering are all influenced by some of our experiences, and we provided a bunch of examples of each. We talked about two main topics, really. One is called the fundamental cognitive error, and that is the fact that we don't really have any insight into the fact that we're making any sort of interpretation. And the second is this idea of naive realism. That is that the world is exactly as it seems. It's sort of this naive view of the fact that human perception works kind of like a videotape. And human memory works like a videotape as well, that what you see is kind of recorded and then you can retrieve it from memory with kind of perfect accuracy. So we're going to see this week that people don't have any real sort of privileged access to their own memory, their own perception, and the determinants of our own behavior. Yep, there are some classic examples of this. And one of my favorites is by Richard Nisbet and Tim Wilson. Now they set up a table at a market on a busy Saturday morning with four pairs of stockings that they labeled A, B, C, and D, and a sign that said Consumer Evaluation Survey, which is the best quality. Now they encourage people to feel the stockings, and then they ask them to choose which pair they thought was the best quality. Now what people didn't realize was that the four pairs of stockings were identical. So they shouldn't have been any more likely to pick one over the other. So that means if they had four pairs of stockings, then they should be 25. If they were selecting at random, then they should select A 25% of the time, B 25% of the time, and so on for each of the four pairs. That's what you might think. But what actually happened was people picked pair A 12% of the time. Pair B 17% of the time, pair C 31% of the time, and pair D 40% of the time. So they had a massive bias. So they were far more likely to pick pairs of stockings that were on the right side compared to the left side. Now Nisbet and Wilson did a follow-up experiment where again they asked people to choose from these four pairs of identical stockings. And again, people were more likely to choose those who were on the right compared to the left. But now they asked people, why did you choose D? Why did you choose the one on the right? And people said, oh, well, I really liked the color of that one, the knit, the sheen, the elasticity. And they said, well, do you think the order of those could have influenced your judgment in any way? Do you think it was just because this one was on the right compared to the left? And people's reactions to this were classic, and I'll let Nisbet tell the story. So you ask people to do this, and then you say, well, why did you like this one the best? And they give you, well, the color is better, the feel, they're all identical, by the way, except that they look slightly different. And you say, okay, well, that's very interesting, thank you very much. Just one question, do you think that the order in which you looked at those things had an effect on you? And people, they're a little frightened. I mean, either I didn't understand the question or I'm dealing with a madman. Now I think this makes clear that people had very little insight into the basis of their judgments. Why they picked this particular stocking over another. I mean, they actually reported that they were making judgments on the basis of quality rather than anything else. That's right. And Richard Nisbet is a huge proponent of this idea of kind of the power of unconscious processing, that we have no real insight into the determinants of our own behavior. Yep, let's see what he had to say.