Thank you everyone. So vitamin D is of perpetual interest in the ancestral health community because vitamin D is a key example of evolutionary mismatch hypothesis where under the conditions of our evolution, we spent almost, you know, most of our days through most of our lives outside where we had abundant access to the sun and of course we also evolved in a much more equatorial environment and now we're much more spread across the globe where we have more seasonal access to sunlight which provides vitamin D but we also spend most of our modern lives indoors and so regardless of what you think the ancestral vitamin D level might have been it certainly was higher than what most of us would have if we're not supplementing and if we're living indoor lifestyles and aren't careful to specifically go out and get vitamin D. And then of course, COVID-19 is of perpetual interest to anyone who's been alive since January 2020 because all of us just want it to go away and it won't. So therefore the topic of vitamin D and COVID-19 is of interest in any post 2020 ancestral health symposium. Now before the pandemic or at the time that the pandemic was emerging there had already been quite a body of literature suggesting that vitamin D is very protective against respiratory disorders in general and a lot of that research had been done on associations with colds and flu and it had included several randomized controlled trials showing protective effects of vitamin D against the flu. And so when the pandemic emerged it was a reasonable hypothesis for anyone to say well we know that supplementing vitamin D protects against the flu, it seems generally protective against respiratory disorders therefore we should all supplement with more vitamin D to protect ourselves from COVID-19. However, there were also reasonable reasons for caution. And so at the time that the pandemic emerged as I was studying the mechanisms and trying to understand how they might intersect with nutrition I actually had very strong reservations against supplementing with vitamin D. And although I didn't believe that anyone should try to make themselves deficient in vitamin D, I did initially come out and say we should be careful and probably shouldn't be supplementing with vitamin D to try to protect ourselves from COVID-19. And part of the reason for that is that the virus that causes COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 infects human cells by binding to a protein called angiotensin converting enzyme two or ACE-2. And ACE-2 is from the perspective of human physiology, a an enzyme that is involved in protecting us from high blood pressure and promoting the health of the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. But from the perspective of the virus is just a convenient thing that it can use as a receptor that it can hijack to get into the cell. And so we definitely knew from the beginning that because human ACE-2 has the composition and shape that it has, this is the reason why this virus can get into our cells. And evolutionary mismatch hypothesis is not always necessarily the thing that's going to tell you how to protect yourself from a virus because viruses through their own evolutionary mechanisms evolve to hijack things that are good to do bad things to us. And so the virus evolving to hijack ACE-2 which is a protective enzyme from the perspective of our cardiovascular and respiratory systems is this virus evolved to hijack that and use it against us. And vitamin D as well as some other nutrients including vitamin A were shown in multiple studies prior to the pandemic to increase the amount of ACE-2. So it was reasonable at that time and I did come out and say this that we should be very careful about this because we could actually be increasing our risk of infection. Now some other people pointed out that when you get infected with this virus if you do get severe respiratory problems you actually lose ACE-2 function in the lungs and that's part of the disease process. And so they argued vitamin D might still be protective but there were reasons to wait and be very cautious about it. Now as research started to emerge one of the first things that suggested a protective effect of vitamin D were some correlations with latitude and incidence and severity where it seemed like latitudes with higher UVB exposure which is what is in sunlight and produces vitamin D in your skin had basically being in those latitudes was protective against getting COVID. Now that doesn't really tell you much because there's lots of things that could be confounding that observation but that combined with the known protective effect of vitamin D against respiratory disorders in general were both suggestive of a protective effect of vitamin D. Then when the first observational study came out of South Asia I started to cautiously lean in the direction of thinking vitamin D might be protective and that first three studies that came out all came out of either Indonesia or unspecified countries in South Asia and they showed very strong associations between vitamin D status and lower either incidence or severity or mortality against in the case of COVID-19. However, the first paper has since been retracted from the SSRN website which is a website that publishes preprints that which are basically papers that you can view before they've been peer reviewed. The second study has since been retracted from the SSRN website for reasons that are not specified. And the third study that came out has since been retracted from the SSRN website for reasons that have not been specified. And the authors of the second paper might not exist. So the second paper came out of Indonesia and these authors who wrote this paper also are from Indonesia and they're very familiar with the Indonesian medical system. So they looked for the hospitals that these doctors belong to and they looked for the doctors in every known possible way to search for people who do exist and are professionals in Indonesia. And they could find no evidence for the existence of the authors which may or may not play a role in why this paper has been retracted from the SSRN website. But notice that it says this paper has been removed from the SSRN website at the request of the author which is probably not true if the authors don't exist. Now these authors, they titled their paper, COVID-19 and misinformation, how an infodemic fueled the prominence of vitamin D. And their big complaint was that this paper despite the authors apparently not existing had been shared all over Reddit and all over Twitter. And now there is a pandemic of misbelief that vitamin D is protective against COVID-19. And notice their use of the word infodemic is basically saying, wait a second, you thought the virus was a pandemic? Wait until you see this misinformation that's telling everyone to supplement with vitamin D. Now, despite the first three papers being retracted and despite the authors of the second paper possibly not existing, this concern about an infodemic spreading misinformation about the protective effects of vitamin D in retrospect now seems histrionic and irrelevant because there are now 96 observational studies on vitamin D and COVID-19 from all over the globe by authors who are known to exist studying it in hospitals that have verified existences. And there are six published randomized controlled trials. There are 12 completed randomized controlled trials that have not yet been published. And there are literally dozens more randomized controlled trials that are currently registered at clinicaltrials.gov or by other countries clinical trial registries. So although these overlap in time, I'm gonna start by reviewing the 96 observational studies that cover up until, and there's probably more than that now, but this covers the data up until the end of last week as I was preparing my presentation. Now, if they're in a 30 minute plus 10 minute question talk, if I'm gonna try to cover 96 observational studies, the ideal thing to do would be to show the pool data in meta-analysis. And so, unfortunately, there's a three to six month lag in the publication of meta-analyses. And so I actually found that between the most recent meta-analyses, I read 11 meta-analyses in preparation for this talk, I'm gonna show you the results of the three most recent ones. And I found that there were since 54 new observational studies published between the most recent meta-analysis from the end of July and the end of last week. And so I'm gonna try to summarize those for you as well. But here's a meta-analysis that limited its coverage to peer reviewed papers and didn't include any preprints. And what they found was that there was a 3.3 fold, okay, so 3.3 fold increase in the odds of infection, a 5.1 fold increase in the odds of having a severe case and a 60% increase in the odds of mortality. And unfortunately, the mortality studies were not statistically significant. However, notice that there's an obvious discrepancy here where how do you get a, how do you, if this is a real causal effect, it's basically suggesting that vitamin D gets rid of 80% of the severe cases. How do you get rid of 80% of the severe cases and only have such a small statistically significant 60% effect, relative effect on mortality? That's obviously not representative of what's actually going on. What it's representative of is that there's a lot of infections, there's relatively much fewer severe cases, and then there are far fewer cases of mortality. And there are also fewer studies. So we're going from 13 studies with 2,504 people when we're looking at the odds of a severe case, but there were only seven studies with 1,127 total people that even reported mortality. And so because we have fewer studies and because there are fewer people who died, we are not able to statistically investigate this with as much rigor as we can with the odds of a severe case. Now, another notable thing about this paper is that it only included deficiency, only included studies where they define deficiency as under 20 nanograms per milliliter of 250 HD, which is the key marker of vitamin D status. Now this meta-analysis, from published around the same time, has some benefits and limitations compared to the last one. So this one, as you can see up in this description towards the top, they pooled studies that define deficiency as 20, 12, or 10 nanograms per milliliter. And when you pool those different definitions of deficiency, you do lose some precision, but it also allows you to cover more studies with more people and therefore get a more statistically robust effect. Another fault of this, one limitation of this meta-analysis, though, is that it did include preprints, which are papers that have not yet been peer reviewed, and it included two of the three papers that have since been retracted, including the one whose authors might not exist. And so what you're seeing here is on the left, two panels, you're looking at odds of a severe case, and on the right two panels, you're looking at odds of mortality. In the first example of each panel, you're looking at the total pool data, and in the second case of each panel, you're looking at, after they removed sources of heterogeneity. And what that basically means is, they looked at the data and they said, is it consistent? And they said, our statistical test tells us that this data's kind of all over the map. And then they said, okay, which studies are creating the inconsistency? And then they took them out. Now, that's not what you're supposed to do with heterogeneity when you find it. What you're supposed to do is try to explain it, or say there's too much inconsistency, we're not gonna pool the data. So they're not supposed to do this, but this is what happened when they did. So what they originally found was a 4.6 fold increase in the odds of a severe case. If they removed the sources of heterogeneity, it went down to 2.5 fold, and it stayed statistically significant. There was a 4.9 fold increase in mortality that was almost statistically significant, but wasn't. And then that went down to a 30% increase in mortality that was not even close to statistical significance when they removed the sources of heterogeneity. Now, in the first case of severe cases, they removed the first paper, which had been retracted. I support removing that paper. But they also removed a paper that showed that it was the only single paper in this whole meta-analysis that looked at deficiency as below 10 nanograms per milliliter. Well, of course, that showed different results than the papers that defined it as below 20 nanograms per milliliter. And that's a legitimate source of variation that they should have kept in the data rather than taking it out. On the right, they basically did the same thing. They removed the paper whose authors might not exist. I support that. But they also removed that other paper that was the only one to define it as less than 10 nanograms per milliliter. And so I think basically what, the reason I'm showing you this is because when they looked at mortality, when they had the pool, the total pool data, they did show a five-fold effect in mortality. The fact that it was statistically significant is that, again, just reflecting the fact that we have fewer cases of mortality and fewer studies, so it's less statistically robust, but it seems like it's a real effect there of similar magnitude. Now, this last meta-analysis I wanna show you is I'm showing this basically just to drive home the point that there does seem to be an effect on mortality that's similar in magnitude. So on the left, and they didn't pool these results together, but on the left, they showed the studies that defined it as 20 nanograms per milliliter or lower, which showed a doubling of mortality. And on the right, they showed the studies that defined deficiency as less than 30 nanograms per milliliter, and they showed a three-fold elevation in mortality, and this was statistically significant. So the point is that our ability to show a roughly two to five-fold increase in mortality right now is largely limited by too few studies with too few people. Depending on what angle you cut at it, you do see that it's probably there. Now, in the 54 studies that have came out since the most recent meta-analysis, I am not qualified to do a meta-analysis, so I didn't, but I tried to characterize them over the next two slides by just saying, are these telling us roughly the same story as the previous batch of studies included in the meta-analyses, or do they look different? So the first way I asked that question was, how many of these are suggesting, yes, there's a protective effect, versus no, there's not, versus what I characterized as ambiguous, which meant if they adjust for this, the effect's there, if they adjust for that, it's not. If the results were unclear, I defined it as ambiguous. And what you can see is that it's pretty similar. So although the percentage before, included in the meta-analysis that have a protective effect went from 81% to 74%, that's largely reflected by the fact that there were three, let's see, it's on the bottom. If the percentages had stayed the same, we would have seen 44 protective studies, nine with no association and one ambiguous. So we basically have one more study than we would have expected with no association and three more that are ambiguous. And I ran some stats on this and it's P equals 0.5, so it's not even close to significant. So what that tells us is that the next half of the studies that haven't been included in meta-analyses are basically telling us the same things as the previous batch. And then I also looked at the magnitude of these effects and the details of how I characterized the magnitude, I basically assigned a score to these based on how big was the effect. But I scored them one through six and you can see that for infection it was 2.6 versus 2.5, for severity it was four versus 3.7, for mortality it was 4.7 versus 4.1. That's basically telling us that the magnitude of the effects are pretty much the same in the 54 studies that have been released since those meta-analyses. So my overall conclusions from these observational data are that it looks like there's a two to five fold increase in risk or odds of having a COVID-19 infection or a severe case or mortality. And although the 95% confidence intervals which means 95% probability the effect is somewhere between these two points. Although they go up to 10 for severity and to 30 for mortality. And although mortality's not always statistically significant so far because the results are similar as they continue to come out and because there's so many more studies now I think what we're going to see is that we're gonna converge around this two to five fold increase in infection severity and mortality and that the results are gonna be statistically significant across the board. However it's important to note that the majority of these studies are rated as poor in quality at high risk of bias and none of these studies tell us cause and effect relationships about whether vitamin D is protective or not. In order to answer that question we're gonna need to look at randomized controlled trials and there are six and I'm gonna get to those soon but first I wanna highlight some interesting observations from the observational studies. So right here I'm showing you the set of studies that have tried to say what's the cutoff where we can use 250 HD as a marker to predict someone's risk of having a severe case or in most of these cases dying of COVID. And one of the ways that they look at that is to look at the sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is can we find most of the people who are gonna die? Specificity is can we try to avoid predicting someone's gonna die when they're not going to?   Then wherever that optimum balance is you say that's the best cutoff. And so if you look in the third column here for cutoff you see that generally speaking these studies are converging on a point that's somewhere between nine and 25 nanograms per milliliter. That doesn't mean that's the only place you wanna be above. It means somewhere where the severe danger zone is where we can predict yeah you're probably gonna die is somewhere in that range of nine to 25 nanograms per milliliter. This second slide is looking at nine ecological studies. And these are not the best studies because they're looking at population level vitamin D status and they're looking at population level infection severity or mortality rates. And COVID doesn't happen in populations it happens in individuals. However these are interesting from a public health standpoint because if vitamin D status in the population explains 60% of the COVID mortality then from a public health standpoint you probably wanna get your population's vitamin D status up. And what you can see is that these generally come to different explanations of how much of how much of this is explained. But in the top three studies they used the mean 25 OHG of the population which is not the best metric to look at because it doesn't explain the distribution. So for example if there's a lot of people who are below 10 nanograms per milliliter you're probably gonna have a lot of people that are in that danger zone that I just showed you. But if there's a bunch of people who are at 80 nanograms per milliliter they bring the average up but who cares because it's the people under 10 nanograms per milliliter who are all likely to die. So you can see that these estimates are between 12 and 26.7% of the explanation for infection severity or mortality. And they're on the lower end of some of these. Now the only paper that found that vitamin D did not explain this pooled together populations that where deficiency was defined as less than 12 and where deficiency was defined as less than 20. And in my mind they didn't find any association because they were pooling data that was too variable. Every single other study did not do that and every single other study found that vitamin D status in the population predicts infection severity and mortality. Another thing that's interesting here is this paper over here which looked at 24 Asian countries and they found that if they adjusted for age and obesity the explanation level went from 30 to 56% for infection and from 25 to 41% for mortality. And then this study right above it Papa Dimitriou et al. They found that if you control for the life expectancy in that country, then vitamin D status explains 63% of the mortality rate. So I think that generally speaking if you're gonna define deficiency correctly and if you're gonna control for age, obesity and life expectancy, you're looking at vitamin D status at the population level is explaining the vast majority of variation in the mortality rate. Now this study is probably the single most interesting observational study there is. This looked at every single person in the United States who had a quest diagnostics test for COVID and who also had a 250 HD anytime in the preceding year. The sample size for this study is over 190,000 people. The sample studies for the odds of infection that I was showing you before were at a few thousand people. So this is looking at 20 times the number of people that were included in any of those meta-analyses but also people who got serial COVID tests could be included as infected if any of them tested positive. So although it's retrospective they're looking at 250 HD in the year leading up and they're saying okay, you got tested for COVID 10 times because you traveled, you got infected therefore you count. None of the other studies could do that because they're looking at people who were infected at the time of the study and not did any time over this pandemic did you get infected. Now what they found was that when you controlled for age, sex, latitude and seasonality of the measurement of 250 HD and race then 250 HD predicted 96% of the variation in who got infected and who didn't. That suggested vitamin D status was almost the entire explanation of who got infected and who didn't which is way more powerful than any of the other studies had suggested but this is a massively higher sample size with a much better design. Now the other interesting thing is very few studies had more than like seven people or maybe 40 people who had vitamin D status over 40 nanograms per milliliter but here they had 4,000 people between 50 and 59 nanograms per milliliter and they had 8,000 people who were 60 nanograms per milliliter or higher. So they were very much able to say what happens when you go above 30, 40, 50 nanograms per milliliter and what they found here if you look at the graph on the left here the zigzaggy line is like in each category and then they smooth the line so if you just wanna get a sense of what's happening overall you look at the smooth line that goes down here and then it bottoms out at 55 nanograms per milliliter. Now that doesn't mean you don't get infected that means you have a 6% risk of getting infected but it's very interesting because for every one nanogram per milliliter that you go up your infection rate declines 2% until you get to 55 nanograms per milliliter and that explains 96% of whether you got infected or not. A few other things. Okay, let's say you're at 55 nanograms per milliliter so your infection risk is 6% and that's the lowest you can get but it's not zero. What happens? Do you wind up in the hospital or not? And the data on this are way too sparse to form any conclusions but the data I'm showing you are just to show you that just because you have 55 nanograms per milliliter is not gonna stop you from dying of COVID, unfortunately. So in this paper, hospitalized is on the left, non-hospitalized is on the right and what you can see is there's seven people representing these histograms that are over 40 nanograms per milliliter or higher, five of them were hospitalized so being that high does not keep you out of the hospital. This study provided vague low confidence suggestion that being over 40 nanograms per milliliter won't guarantee you stay out of the hospital, why? Because everyone shown in this graph was in the hospital but if you look at over 40 nanograms per milliliter what you see over here is the people who were just hospitalized instead of being in the ICU were basically everyone over this certain point. So all these people at the top here have the highest vitamin D status and none of them are in the ICU. So there's some point right around here where there's a handful of people that were kept out of the ICU. So this study has so few people up there that doesn't really tell you anything but again, it does show you that vitamin D doesn't keep you out of the hospital as a guarantee. So in this study, this was everyone who went to the hospital in New York City to the Mount Sinai Health System during the height of the pandemic when wherever you lived there were ambulances going by your apartment nonstop all day long and there were over 400 people dying of COVID every day. So what they found here is that the only people who had an increased risk of mortality that was statistically significant were the high bar on the left who are less than 10 nanograms per milliliter and nothing to the right of that is statistically significant and although it looks like there's an increased risk of mortality above 30 nanograms per milliliter that's completely inconsistent with almost every single other study so I wouldn't read much into it. However, what this does show you is that, excuse me, is that there were some, in this study there were 65 people who had over 40 nanograms per milliliter and quite a number of them died and so the mortality rate there is about 30%. So having high vitamin D status over 40 to 60 nanograms per milliliter does not stop you from dying of COVID or keep you out of the hospital as a guarantee. Now we saw before it's associated with a decreased risk of severity and mortality but again that doesn't mean, what my point here is just that severity and mortality never goes to zero. That's what I'm saying. So it's reduced, it just never goes to zero. Now there are vague hints of a U-shaped curve with mortality above 100 nanograms per milliliter which is generally defined as a toxicity range from this paper in, where was this, in Iran. And here although the only thing that's statistically significant is that mortality rates highest in less than 10 nanograms per milliliter it still seems to go almost as high over 100 nanograms per milliliter so you probably don't wanna go up that high. Five minutes till the end of the block or till ideal question time. Okay, okay, I'll go kind of fast. Okay, so conclusions with the observational studies are that the lowest risk of infection is around 55 nanograms per milliliter. If you do get infected there's no evidence that being above 40 nanograms per milliliter is associated with a lower risk of severity than being in the 30 to 40 range. Being in the 30 to 60 range doesn't provide you a guarantee against hospitalization or death but being above 30 nanograms per milliliter in general is associated with the least risk of severity and death. Little is known about higher levels than that but there's some suggestions things could get worse above 100 nanograms per milliliter but right now we are not yet looking at causality. Okay, we know that one of the arguments against causality is that infection and inflammation decrease vitamin D status. So maybe you're just looking in most of these cases as people are getting their vitamin D status depleted because they have a severe disease. And we know two studies that showed that your vitamin D status does decline between your last measurement and when you came into the hospital for COVID by 42%. And one study that showed that the prevalence of people with sufficient vitamin D dropped five-fold just over the course of three days of being in the ICU. But the fact that 250 HD is a negative acute phase reactant meaning it goes down in inflammation is not an argument against protective causality because why is it being depleted because your immune system is using it to support immunity. I'm gonna skip over some slides that I had because I don't have time and I wanna head into the randomized controlled trials. So this is a living meta-analysis that will be published every time the Cochrane group will update their conclusions based on new RCTs. And in this meta-analysis there were three RCTs that were included. One was published in Spain that looked at the effect of oral 250 HD. So not vitamin D, but the actual metabolite you measure in your blood. Give that orally, what does it do to 28 day mortality in ICU? The second one was studied in Brazil and it looked at the effect of a single high dose of vitamin D on the length of a hospital stay. Now there were some other studies after and in this meta-analysis that they didn't really pay attention to because it wasn't looking at their key endpoints that I'm gonna ignore. And a few published census meta-analysis that none of them are better than these two. So because of I don't have time I'm gonna ignore those as well. And I just want to show you the two most important trials. So this meta-analysis basically came down to a showdown between these two trials and really the state of the evidence has not changed up until now. So in the Spanish study they had 76 patients that they were treated with other things that were standard at the time. And they randomized the people to give oral 250 HD or to a control. It was blinded to the people who decided whether they went to the ICU but and the doctors and patients weren't told what they were taking. The nurses were giving them their meds which may or may not have included a 250 HD capsule. They probably didn't know whether they were in one group or the other because they're getting a handful of meds. The doctors could have looked it up in the electronical health records. So they did have access to the information even though they weren't told. So this was not a perfectly blinded study but neither the patients nor the doctors were the ones who decided whether they went to the ICU. There was a committee of people who were totally blinded who decided whether they went to the ICU and the statisticians and data analysts were all blinded as well. And this found that 50% of the control group needed the ICU and 2% of the treated group needed ICU which was a 98% reduction in the odds of going to the ICU. And there were two deaths in the control group and zero in the treatment group. On the other hand, the Brazilian paper had people come in to the hospital. They randomized them to 200,000 IU single high dose of vitamin D or placebo. It was very well blinded and there was no effect on the length of hospital stay, ICU admission or mortality. Now because of the imperfect blinding on the left, the Cochrane group did say this has a slightly higher risk of bias than the other study but I wanna highlight more important differences. So in the Spanish study, treatment started on average seven days from symptom onset and on the day of hospital admission. They didn't say if anyone needed respiratory support on the day of admission but it wasn't a criteria for inclusion and they didn't report anyone needing respiratory support. Oral 250 HD takes five hours to maximize your blood 250 HD. So blood 250 HD was maximized at time of hospital admission five hours later on day seven when to our knowledge, no one yet needed respiratory support. In the Brazilian study, treatment was started 10 days from symptom onset. Respiratory needing having respiratory distress was the major inclusion criteria. 90% of the people on the day of admission already needed oxygen support and it takes five days for vitamin D supplements to maximize 250 HD when giving a single high dose when you don't have an inflammatory disorder but because inflammation hurts the 25 hydroxylation of vitamin D it will take some longer time than five days to maximize that. So somewhere between day 15 and day 25 in people who are half dead of COVID a single high dose of vitamin D didn't do anything. But if you look at these two studies it's far more likely that early boosting of 250 HD before you're half dead very quickly leading into this is what decreases your odds of ICU by 98%. It's far more likely than that than that the patient figured out there was an extra capsule in the handful of things that the nurse was giving her and the doctor looked it up in the electronic health record and then somehow convinced the data that went to the blinded ICU committee that these people are on vitamin D therefore they probably don't need to go out to ICU even though they're dying. So it's probably about early treatment and good ways of getting the 250 HD up. So I'm gonna skip ahead to the conclusions. One of the things from this are that while the threat of COVID-19 persists actively maintaining 250 HD in the 30 to 55 nanograms per milliliter range is likely to protect against getting infected. Maintaining in D in this range will also prevent a five or more day delay in the ability to quickly raise your 250 HD with vitamin D supplements if you do get sick. If you take the Spanish paper and convert it into daily oral vitamin D supplements then it's the equivalent of 30,400 IU per day in the first week followed by a maintenance dose of 7,600 IU per day until symptoms resolve. Now in that area in Spain, the average 25 HD is 16 nanograms per milliliter. If you're at 55 when you get COVID you can probably skip the loading dose in the first week. However, I wouldn't be quick to dismiss the value of having a higher loading dose in the first week. And so based on, I actually got COVID last month and it was based largely intuitively I used 20,000 IU of vitamin D during the first per day during the first week and dropped it to 10,000 IU during the second. But I would emphasize that if you're trying to get biological activity as high as you can as soon as you get sick early in the sickness you actually wanna start the loading phase when you sneeze and you say maybe it's COVID because if the next day you're no longer sneezing anymore, who cares? But if the next day all of a sudden you're wheezing and the day after that you have 104 fever then you're gonna wish that you did the loading dose three days earlier. Now I do wanna, the last thing that I do wanna say is as all the other RCTs are published we may revise how we view this but this is the current state of what I believe. And I also would balance vitamin D with other nutrients in the diet especially A and K2 and you certainly don't wanna be deficient in anything in that context but that's what I have for you today. We are officially on break. Chris, would you like to answer questions, five minutes? Yeah, I can answer questions. If the board would allow me, five minutes of questions so if you want to switch between both microphones. So is there any data for those that were within that perceived optimal range if they did get infected? Was there any, what was the outcome for post COVID symptoms? There's almost nothing on post COVID symptoms. The only thing there is is a paper that pooled, actually it's not even worth looking at. The only paper that looked at vitamin D status and post COVID symptoms pooled long hauler symptoms with hospitalized cases and looked at a correlation. And so there's basically nothing. Okay, thank you. Hey Chris, fantastic to the group and to you Chris. Have you heard Dr. Fauci mentioned taking vitamin D at any point? Yeah, I heard Fauci comment on taking vitamin D way before he said he takes vitamin D. And personally, right, but it hasn't been part of whole country taking vitamin D. Well, I mean, he hasn't advocated anything based on these trials, but he did say that he did, someone asked him about taking nutrition in COVID and he was like, well vitamin D seems helpful, but yeah. It was a deficiency and he didn't say anything. So a couple of questions. Does anyone know whether the population of meat eaters versus the population of vegetarians have a dramatic vitamin D level difference? I don't know, but the only observational study that looked at plant-based diets showed that people on plant-based diets did better with COVID. Oh you're right. Really? I mean, not that I would read much into it. The cytokine storm is in fact less active in their immune systems, possibly. Yeah, possibly. Okay, thank you. Possibly. Yeah, would you consider varying a dose if you were somebody who spent a lot of time out in the sun versus, I mean, without knowing what the baseline your blood of. In the context of a theoretical future risk of infection or in the context of getting sick? Maybe both. Well, I mean. Without understanding what your baseline is. In the context of future risk of infection that I don't really think it, you want to think about it like that.  Did I get it up to the 30 to 55 nanogram per milliliter range and whatever combination of sun and supplements does that. In the context of getting sick, I think there's not even really a hypothetical downside to oh, you added an extra 4,000 IU from your sunbathing today. So I would ignore it and just focus on oral supplements. The chance of getting up towards 100 would be relatively nil.  In the context of an acute dose, during the time of infection, I wouldn't even worry about it. I mean, there's only a vague suggestion from an observational study that above 100 is a risk. But if I were to hypothesize why it would be a risk, I would hypothesize that it was chronic exposure to hypercalcemia and not, oh, it popped up to 100 today, therefore I'm at risk. Okay, thanks. Hey, Chris. Just wondering for 25 hydroxy vitamin D, is there like a proposed mechanism or do we already understand the mechanism of like how that interacts with the immune system and why there seems to be a risk to get that? I had a whole slide on this, but it was I hadn't gotten to the RCT yet and only five minutes left. So I mean, I personally think that probably the main way that it's restricting severity is by restricting IL-6 levels. There's some correlational, like scant correlational stuff in COVID studies, but there are RCTs from other contexts where generally with disorders that have IL-6 that can go very high, vitamin D does reduce it and IL-6 is the main predictor of needing mechanical ventilation in COVID. And vitamin D also increases lymphocytes and high lymphocyte, low neutrophils are one of the best markers of overall better prognosis. But generally speaking, calcitrile, which is the active hormonal form of vitamin D acts on immune cells to stimulate the production of antimicrobial peptides to increase immune activity in a way that favors anti-infective activity and generally modulate immunity in a way that prevents autoimmune type or cytokine storm type activity. Thank you. Hi, you've written at length on the importance of balancing D with other vitamins like A and K and how they synergistically work together. Is there a danger in recommending that people front-load with D supplements in isolation of other things in advance of getting COVID or is this too short? Well, I did mention that at the end very briefly. And actually I have, there's some caveats listed right here in this slide that I didn't get to before. But yeah, I mean, I think that you wanna balance vitamin D and vitamin A and K2 and there's some important interactions as zinc and magnesium. And so I think that's important both on a chronic level but also vitamin A levels are depleted in severe COVID cases. There's almost no research on it but the research that's there suggests vitamin A levels are depleted in severe COVID cases. And there's also a couple of studies that came out of the Netherlands suggesting that vitamin K stat is a blood vessels when it's poor is a predictor of worse outcomes. So I do think that balancing them together is the right thing. I got COVID last month and I matched my vitamin D dose to one to one with vitamin A in terms of IU, not in terms of micrograms. And I supplemented 200 micrograms of K2 and also 40 IU of vitamin E. Thank you so much. Everyone.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Trader's Edge with Steve Rhodes. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The Trader's Edge. Now, Steve Rhodes. Good afternoon from TFNN. Welcome to the July 15th, the magnificent Monday edition of today's Trader's Edge show. I'm your host, Steve B. Perseverance Rhodes, who absolutely knows that each of us should always be pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past. That's right, folks. Hope everyone out there is having a great day. Hey, how about we have an extraordinary one? Yep, let's have an extraordinary day. The easiest way to do that is to always remember that life is happening for us. Not to us. That's right, you and I make that one little two-by-four shift. It means we can find the gift in every set of circumstances that life is going to toss at us. Today, you and I, we're going to go check on the circumstance of these markets. We're going to go figure out what the bulls and the bears, what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I just passed one o'clock in the afternoon. I want you to know that I'm absolutely grateful for your presence here, but way more important than that. During this next hour, I'm here to serve you, so feel free to pick up that phone. That's right, you can dial on it at<PHONE_NUMBER>. If you can't dial in, we've got you covered. Yep, let those fingers do the walking. You can send me an email, Steve at TFNN.com. Inside the subject heading, please put radio show question in the Tiger's Den. Well, any ping will do. So let's go ahead and get this show started on Magnificent Marvelous Monday. Of course, this is Tiger, Financial News Network. I'm Steve Rhodes. Welcome to LUS Show right now. The Dow trained down 30 points. 27-301 is the print. S&P is off four. NASDAQ 100 is flat. Russell is down six tenths or percent. The leader to the downside in the XY's. That's nearly nine bucks. Ten dollars, really to the downside. Semi's are up seven. Five, about half a percent to the upside. New York Stock Exchange trading down 13. Wilshire off 55. Spotball utility is up 4% or 50 cents. Trading out at 12.89. Still below its 50-day exponential moving average. Gold's up a buck. Silver 12. Penny's Lights recruit off 55 cents. Lee, the charge is the upside dollar-wise. Individual, stock-wise. Gold is a Galapagos up 17%. Not sure what's behind the move, but up 25 bucks. Trading out at 171.10. CyberArk software up eight bucks or 6%. Broadcom up a little over 1%. Or three dollars and change to the downside. It is Domino's Pizza. Down 13 bucks or nearly 5%. Netflix off 3%. That's about $11 to the downside. Surcor international down 14%. Or about six buck of Ruins. So great to be back with you. Always good to take a little bit of time off out here. So what are we looking at? Really interesting trading sessions. Let's start by this. For those of you who haven't been around since Tuesday, out here, no new market profiles or anything. So if we take a look at the daily, I don't have the weekly up here right now, but the daily, we can see the price careened above the daily profile out here on July 11th. Actually July 10th inside the NQ. July 11th inside the Dow. And so when we are above profiles, we don't see any resistance. We've got to ask ourselves, well, where's the resistance, Stevo? So let's go take a look. Let's go here from the equity futures contracts, which we are looking at. Just switch over to the monthly charts for the Dow, the S&P, the NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000, the four indices that each of you may trade out here. So interestingly enough, we had suggested a long time ago when we drew this trend line in here that we're still in a consolidation. We would be in a consolidation. I'm looking at the Dow on the upper left-hand chart. Let's just simply go ahead and expand this chart out here. All you and I did was connected the dots. That's all we need to do. We don't need to make trading investing any more difficult than it already is. And we just simply connected the dots from the January highs in 2018 to the highs in October of 2018. You can see we're trading right on that trend line. The month of July is not over. It doesn't matter to me whether we're just slightly above it or that we've peaked above an employee. But here in the Dow, it is clearly, at least in my eyes, clearly at resistance. Something to think about. If we take a look at the NDX100, you'll see we're just trading slightly above its same potential resistance line. Now, in this case here, we're only connecting the dots, the highs from October in 2018 and then the highs from April in 2019 out there. So this is also the NDX100 trading into resistance. If you take a look at the S&P 500, close but no cigar, close enough for your work, close enough for my work, even if the S&P moves a bit higher, it too is going to run into resistance. Again, by the trend line that began in January 2018 and then you just simply use the September 2018 level out there. Connect those dots and you can see the trend line. So what does that mean? Well, it means, hey, longer pen, by the way, in the Russell 2000, not really much for us to look at. This thing has been able to budge above the February 2019 highs out here. So just consolidating sideways at the moment. So what do you and I know? You and I know we drew these trend lines in here. We knew that this would be or could be an area where the market may find a top. We're in a consolidation pattern out here. And so that says that you and I need to be on the hunt, need to be on the lookout for those types of signals out here. If we take a look at the New York Stock Exchange, you and I, we had been paying attention to the mere fact that the New York Stock Exchange was making higher highs, but doing it with a declining, advanced decline oscillator out there. Now just saying that doesn't mean anything.  When you see those divergences, you know they can lead to some type of retracement or something more substantial than that. Now more substantial than that always gets moving, always gets rocking, always gets rolling when the spot volatility index is above the 50-day exponential moving average. We're not there yet. We're not there. We may not get there. That level is $14.89. That's at 50-day. You're trading right now at $12.89. So $2 below that area. Not suggesting we're going to get there today, but it is something to keep an eye on. Now the advanced decline oscillator is still just slightly above zero. The reading is 18 and change out here. If that gets below zero, then that says, hey, you've got some type of retracement. This is definitely, or should be, definitely underway. Now if we take a look, can we step back from here in the New York Stock Exchange? Because this is not going to generate any kind of topping signal for you or I. It is a weather report saying you better take the umbrella because it could start pouring. However, you and I use a set of tools out here to help us identify when the markets make tops and bottoms out there. We keep it relatively simple. One of the patterns is the road's momentum indicator signal. Price moving higher, doing less route of energy, which, by the way, the New York Stock Exchange, as it made a slightly higher high this morning, did just that. Now, so we've got signals at the market. You and I just took a look at the indices that we are near a high, or should be near high. Now the market needs to communicate to you and I. That's the responsibility of buyers and sellers. We don't get ahead of ourselves out there because if we get ahead of ourselves, we could be doing the right thing at the wrong time. And when you do that, it's like you're out of control. You're driving, the car is spinning. Your eyes focus on the tree when they really should be focused on the open road ahead because if you focus on the tree, guess what you're going to run into? The tree. So what we and I do so that we don't spin our car out of control and focus on the wrong thing, we focus on the right thing. And that would be some type of bearish reversal candle today. We don't have it just yet. But if we get a close blow of 13,000 20244 in the New York Stock Exchange, it will signal a top. Now you can't trade the New York Stock Exchange. We'll go look at the other indices. We get back from this break and any other questions that have come in. This is Eroge with TF&M. We'll be right back. Over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures and forex. Heated by Steve Dahl, Taz understands that in today's technological world, the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. You also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted, the best way to use the Taz profile scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. All new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. That same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First Mortgage Program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer? $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment. If you'd like more information about the Tiger First Mortgage Program, you can call me at<PHONE_NUMBER>. That's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Tfnn has launched our brand-new website. You can still visit us at the same tfnn.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your own website. Tfnn has launched our brand-new website with a brand-new website. You can still visit us at the same tfnn.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new tfnn.com now and experience all the upgrades. tfnn.com, educating investors. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Welcome back, folks. Hi, the Tiger's Den from SM out here. Take a look at Kroger. Kroger once had a job back in groceries back when I was 15 years old for Kroger. Kind of interesting to ask me about Kroger because it was right off the expressway. It was off, I believe, a telegraph road way out in Dearborn and the expressway out there. I remember the expressway had opened up and there was a car that did spin out of control. And ran right into a telephone pole. It was off the expressway, so it was in the, you know, the merge onto lanes or what have you. Just rip the car in half out there. And really, when you are spinning out of control, many people will focus on, well, literally there's studies out there.   And that was the only thing that was in sight, you know, for hundreds of yards out there. So makes, you know, as Tom says, what you focus on grows. Well, there is nothing more truer than that. So focus on the positive. But in any event, with regard to Kroger out here, let's begin by taking a look at our three TAS market profiles, the Daily, the Weekly, and then the Monthly, which are on the right-hand side. We also happen to have the Quarterly. Now, SM doesn't have a position inside of Kroger. We can see that on the Daily chart out here, the one on the very left-hand side, there is no center of the box, meaning no cyan-colored, blue-colored line. That's because it actually is there. It just happens to be at the same price point as the bottom of the box, at $21.56. That should be really strong support out there. The price is trading below the Weekly profile and maybe trading all the way down into the Monthly level of $20.81. So this is what I would suggest to USM just in taking a look at these charts here. If you're looking to get in Kroger, I would say maybe just wait, maybe, maybe just wait. But 2081, you're trading at 22.02. Maybe it's a long-term position. I don't know. 2081 should be pretty good support. But let's go take a look at our other charts. Let's try to figure out, did we take a look at this Daily chart? Was there any kind of bottom signal? We take a look at Kroger. So let's pull over our Daily chart. Let's go take a look around here. And what we can see here is as Kroger was making its lows in the Daily timeframe, right around June 26th, it did it with a TD set up nine count. But my eyes see that there was a slightly lower low on July the second out here. But what we can also do is we can use our wave count tool. So the high I'm going to use out here, because it's the one that's on my screen, from back on February 28th out there, if we just start doing our counts to the downside from there, we're going to see that that little bit of a lower push below that TD set up nine count actually took us to wave number seven letter G, which we know on a daily basis is a bottoming signal out there. And therefore you had two of them, along with a daily bottom of its box and center of the box right at that same price point. So really strong. Now, would you go ahead and enter a position inside of Kroger today based on that, knowing that today is going to be day nine of that TD set up nine count. And the answer, my friend, is absolutely positively not. Because we've really had very little movement off to the bottom. And now you've got a potential topping signal that is in play out here. And so therefore this says ASM. Stay away for the moment with regard to that. If we take a look at the weekly timeframe chart, any bottoming signals out here, well we can see that from a weekly standpoint it's gotten to wave number six letter F. So maybe a slightly lower low would be helpful there. Until price gets above 2252, you don't really want to touch Kroger unless there's some solid bottoming pattern, which we already had. We definitely had that on a daily chart, but not much in the way of movement. And now you've got a potential topping signal out there. The monthly chart out here really suggests that hey, a slightly lower low between that lower low would be, but between the low of October in 2017 could get us to wave number seven as well out there as well as it looks like on a monthly basis would be TD set up eight count out here. So I would just sit tight, SM. I would just simply sit tight. Let's go to our first caller. It's Ron in Denver. Ron, thanks for calling. Thanks for holding. How are you today? Great, Steve. I want to look at AMR on AMRN. If you recall a couple weeks ago, I mentioned that Miguel had taken that you know, she went to the doctor and asked her their drug for high reducing her cholesterol and high triglycerides. Yes. Her triglycerides dropped from 2,300 to 230. That was a medical miracle. Anyway, I bought some options on the stock. Ran up to 23. No, I'm here. I'm listening. Anyway, it came back down. I got out again because one day it jumped up three and a quarter. Somebody wrote it up, but I got out and I'm trying to get back in or looking to get back in. How do you know where's a good spot to get back in and what kind of a time frame do you look at? So great question out here. And you know, to begin with, just to get a feel for what ticker symbol AMRN Amarin Corp is doing, you know, we can just take a quick glance and see our daily, our weekly and our monthly time frames. Now it's our daily time frame here that gives us the most information, I would say. And that is that prices trading within a bullish structure daily profile, bullish in structure because the center of that box, that's where both buyers and sellers believe there's fair value is 2219, but prices below that. So if that was fair value, the buyers should have been able to hold it up. Looks like sellers here run are going to try to push price down to the bottom of that profile at 2105. So that may be, may be a spot where you would find an entry point. Ideally, you know, you would, you would see some type of other bottoming signal other than just a test of support. But if we take a look at the, this daily chart out here that I'll put up, I don't really see a, a topping signal per se. I see a consolidation pattern. You and I talked about that last time and price in essence has remained in that consolidation pattern. And there becomes the real issue. You and I don't know because price is inside this consolidation, I'll just simply here, go ahead and kind of mark this off here. Here in essence is our consolidation. We couldn't bust it to the upside. Is it going to bust it to the downside and come all the way back into the $16 level? But the answer to your question with regard to where would you take that initial entry on an attempt again? I would have to say 2105 at this stage as long as price remains below 2190. And then what you can do is maybe take a look at volume. You see, there was a breakout so to speak because there was this gap to the upside on July 2nd had volume of 42 million shares. Friday's pullback was 6 million shares. Today you're about 3.5, so maybe another 6 or so. So volume is pulling back. So it's the 2105 area, Ron, that would give you that signal. If price closes below that, then you and I have to wait for some type of pattern. Now it may be a TD set up 9 count pattern. I don't know what pattern. It might be that would unfold. We just have to wait and see if price would break below 2105. What pattern is it that's forming? Maybe it's an A to B equal CD pattern, which would set up a currently buy. But until we get there, I don't know. So I have to say to you that the answer is 2105 would be the first place that you would take a look at it. You'd certainly like to see volume decreasing as price pulls back to that area. It's not that far to go, only less than 70 cents to the downside. So that's what I see out there. Does that answer your question? Thank you much. Yeah? Okay. Thank you. Great. You bet. Good to hear from you. That was Ron in Denver, Colorado, Amron Corp. AMRN is a ticker symbol. Steve Rhodes with TFNM. Be right back. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. So, let's see here. Let's go back to the markets. We've taken care of the questions that have come in thus far, but I would love to hear from you,<PHONE_NUMBER>, or send me an email, Steve, at TFNN.com. So, back to the indices. We had just really taken a look at the New York Stock Exchange, and we're watching for potential top-out here, because, well, for several reasons, but when we take a look at the daily charts, we see some significant patterns on there, at least notable patterns worth paying attention to, especially in light of the resistance levels that the indices have hit out there. So, the New York Stock Exchange, we know what we're looking for there. I provided you with that number. For the S&P 500, we have the indicator signal still intact out here. Now, it's iffy, because if there was some real strength to come in to the close, they had 4 o'clock, that pattern could disappear. But at this stage, let's go with what we have at 1.31 in the afternoon. We can see that price moving higher, with less relative energy, always worth paying attention to, especially if there was some type of bearish reversal candle to form. As we speak just yet, yes, the candle is red, but that doesn't make it bearish. There is no bearish reversal signal. If we're to close below the open, most certainly from Friday, then you'd get a bearish engulfing candle session out here. We'll watch 2997-26 to be exact. That would be a key level of support that if broken, I would set up at least a retracement, if not a move back to the breakout area, which is 2762. Yeah. You don't hear that too many places. But to hear it here during the Traders Ed Show, we're not there yet. First things first, right? First things first. We've got to keep our eyes glued in the right spot. Not the tree. Just the right spot. Just pay attention. Let the market do its thing and communicate to both you and I out there. What else are we watching? Well, we're watching the Nasdaq 100. What do we know about the Nasdaq 100? Well, we know that today could be the high of today, could be the high in the market. Why? Because it completes a Tommy DeMark set up nine count. Now the nine count bar was Friday. We know that a top or a bottom can form the bar following bar nine. For example, in the NDX 100, it was the bar following bar nine that formed below back in June. Makes sense that it might form the pattern that forms the high in July. Hey, how about that? Now the key level here in the NDX 100 is really going to be 77, 35, 67 on any pullback, because that's where really price broke out. And it's that timber to the downside out there. So we'll watch the NDX 100 tomorrow if it makes a higher high out there. Then that negates the pattern all together. The pattern will exist. It will have completed. It already did that on Friday, but it won't confirm the topping signal. So there you go inside the NDX 100. What else do we have going on inside the market? Well, to take a look at the transports out here. The transports are where? In wave number seven. Wave number G. We take a look at that on Stevie's chart. Now, this can continue to extend out there because wave number seven was actually Friday, but today was a slightly higher high. So it's now today and you don't confirm wave G until you make a lower high in the market. So we won't really know about this until tomorrow, but nonetheless, we are on Stevie Wonder singing in the key of G mode when it comes to the Dow transports. And then let's take a look at the Nasdaq composite on Stevie Wonder singing in the key of G. Just take a look at the Nasdaq composite. Now, the Nasdaq composite on Friday completed its TD 79 count pattern. That is no longer going to be the pattern that would identify the top out here. Why? Because today is a higher high. Friday's session was the bar following bar nine, but don't fret out there. You see the previous high that was made inside the Nasdaq composite, which took place back here in April. Well, guess what it was formed with. That's right, singing in the key of G. Can't it do it twice in a row out here? I don't have the answer to that, but we'll have the answer to that soon. We're still in wave number seven. That'll continue until you see a lower high. So the earliest possible confirmation of that would be tomorrow. But we kind of get the gist. We don't know. Now, look, these patterns they haven't confirmed they could fail. And if they fail, what does that mean? The price headed higher. In fact, these are momentum patterns. And if these momentum patterns fail, it just says the market should continue to moment to the upside. We can try to figure out where those prices are, but let's not focus on that because we're just simply not there yet. Now, if we take a look at the other indices, we don't have those same patterns in play out here. What do you mean? We don't have those same patterns out here. I mean, we don't have those same patterns out here. Now, you can see that this is only in wave number four. That's letter D. No TD set up nine count anywhere near completion out here. You're only potentially in day number three there. So inside the Dow, we're going to have to find some other signal because it ain't there on our daily screen. But the other markets, it might get the message. It might get the memo out there from the S&P or the Nasdaq or the Nasdaq Composite or the New York Stock Exchange. You know what I mean out there?  You know how Stevie says gold is made a fairly significant top out there. I know I'm just one of one, I believe, because everybody else is saying no way Stevo. Okay. Well, you can say no way, Stevo. Maybe I'm dead wrong. If you take a look at the XAU though, interestingly enough, we can see that it is beginning to form indicator topping signal just as it did down here at the bottom want to confirm with the bullish engulfing candle we don't have a bearish reversal signal yet prices just trading slightly below Stevie's green line but this says be careful be careful you've got topping patterns in the XAU as well not confirmed but you want to be careful so let's see what else do we have out here that we can take a look at I think that's kind of it and no other questions that I see out there and so so I don't know where what it where else should we look let me just see if there's anybody was written in that has a question out here no it's quiet in it said I look at oil Tucker I did not look at oil so because Tucker asked to look at oil let's go look at oil what are you doing with oil tuck tell me what you're doing and we'll try to help out so let's go take a look at the I believe it is the August contract for a light sweet crude that we are trading right now so let's go take a look at it trading out at 59 62 we just simply take a look at profiles out here nothing at the moment alright we take a look at light sweet crude here's what we know there's a brand new profile that formed today inside of light sweet crude and prices above that level 5898 is the top of that buck typically that is a bullish signal here for light sweet crude typically it's a bullish signal for light sweet crude if price gets back below 5898 that's the number you'd be watching here Tucker then that state something that should be bullish wasn't bullish that would suggest to me now it's a bullish structured daily profile that price would move down to 5653 to 5751 the center or the bottom of its box out there but I believe let me see if I still have it up on my screen out here I was just had a quick conversation about light sweet crude earlier before the show went on and if I take a look at this daily time frame chart for light sweet crude looking for some type of topping signal I don't have it I see it is in wave number four letter D we know that significant resistance exists up at 6302 we know that when it did form a topping signal which was after bar number nine right out here you see letter C on it price pulled right back to support that held 5607 this chart here doesn't show the new profile the e-signal chart does so that's one that we'd pay attention to so Tucker I don't see a reason to take a new position lights we crude to the upside or really quite frankly to the downside as we speak just yet Steve roger tfn if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. Petersburg Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country we can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of 1550 per year or 6200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the tiger first mortgage program would give you 3500 per year or 14,000 over the four years what should you prefer 6200 or 14,000 of interest on your investment if you'd like more information about the tiger first mortgage program you can call me at<PHONE_NUMBER> that's<PHONE_NUMBER> if you haven't checked out the newsletters page of tfnn.com what are you waiting for all of the tfnn newsletters are informative up-to-date affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets tfnn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from tfnn stay informed each day you trade and get that competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to tfnn.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tfnn.com educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade lab you or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information welcome back folks and I overlook something that one of our The agent of the meeting is John and the Tigers Dan Mr Z had posted in the Den so and that is that that today if the S&P closed above three thousand to that it'll create a Tommy DeMarco sequential signal out there won't generate necessary the cell signal but it would be a a 13 count out here in and John I would also say it would be a TD combo. you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, in the sequential system doesn't show up as often as the nine count. So I primarily focus on the nine count for the show and inside the newsletter out here. But but here in the S&P 500, you could have two patterns. In essence, completing. That's the same time. You've got Stevie's roads momentum indicator signal, perhaps a TD sequential cell signal out there. You know, you know, basically since it looks like about June the fifth or so, what was the actual date? June the fifth. Pretty good guess. And so a close below that line would suggest that. Okay, there's some type of some kind of retracement top that would be in play. Now we'd say top in this case here because of my signal, Tommy DeMarc's sequential setup out there. So no other questions that are out here. So, um, you know, let me kind of go back because because Ron had asked a good question. I don't know that I fully answered it. I tried to answer it specifically for his for his stock that he was taking a look at. And that is, you know, how do you know when to buy in topping or bottom signals? In essence, in this case here is looking for bottoming signals or when do you know and kind of on the topping. So it's kind of along the same path out here, right? So we're looking at daily charts and we're taking a look at all these potential signals that are out there. But how do we know if they're going to come into being or not? So when we get to the bigger picture, I don't look, I look at all timeframe charts out there, but I step back and say, Well, if the daily is generating a signal, what's the five hour chart doing is a five hour chart generating, you know, just kind of stepping back first going to shorter term kind of stepping back a bit out here. So, you know, because you and I both were 25 hour days out there and it sounds impossible, but you and I, because we're so efficient, we can squeak out another hour in the day, especially because of daylight savings time, right? Yeah, if you move back an hour, where did the hour go? Right? So you and I were working 25 hours, so you've got a five hour chart, five times five, you got 25. Of course I'm being facetious, but I'm not being facetious about using the 300 minute chart out here, specifically for the futures contracts. Don't use this, go ahead and use it if you want for the indices and ETFs that are in essence trading in a six and a half hours or individual stocks. Don't do that. Don't do that, but here, here's what we can see. So if we do take a look at the EES mini out here, it has formed a TD set up nine count and prices now trading below Stevie's green line. That's at 3,018. So this is giving us a signal. Now this signal here may just simply be a pullback to where price most recently broke out and inside the EES mini for the five hour time frame, that's at the price point of 29,92,50. That would be the number that you would be watching any move below that and price heads back to 29,65,75. So the five hour time frame chart for the EES mini, not that we don't need to worry about the wave count out there, a TD set up nine count pattern that appears to be confirmed this bar is going to complete at two o'clock, so another 14 minutes, probably relatively safe. If we look at the five hour time frame chart here for the NQ, we're going to see the potential of a beautiful butterfly. Now the real butterfly Stevie had would have completed around 8,034,50, but this is more of instead of a butterfly, this is more of a three drive to a top type of pattern out here. We don't have the, we actually do have a bearish reversal candle just yet, but in this case here, because the bar of the nine o'clock time frame bar was so small, and this bar is relatively small, I don't know if we're going to get that signal or not out here. So it's very close, but on a five hour time frame, you've got the three drive to a top inside of the NQ, so two five hour charts are suggesting, okay, pay attention, pay attention, don't take action, pay attention, let the market do what it's supposed to do, don't guess the market, I don't want to guess the market, because I can't, I can't control what the market can do. What we can do is say, hey, there's a certain set of signals that provide you and I with an edge, a higher probability of taking some type of aggressive action, and you do want to take aggressive action at the early stage of a trade at a bottom or at a top out there, because your risk reward is the best out there, but I'm still suggesting don't back up the truck just yet. Now we talked about the Dow and how the Dow on a daily basis did not have a pattern, a topping signal or pattern out here, it doesn't have a pattern. If we do take a look at the five hour chart, this is as opposed to a three drive to top Stevie, this is a butterfly cell pattern. Now the butter and a TD set up nine count pattern out here and which all were both were confirmed with a bearish reversal candle, the old the dark cloud cover, as two bar reversal candles go, it's one of the weaker ones, but you're getting follow-through, so I like to see follow-through to confirm a pattern, we're going to take a look at this case here, you'd want to see a close blow 27263. Not necessarily at two o'clock, but by at some point, maybe by the end of the trading session this afternoon, a close blow 27263, at least the five hour chart would be saying, okay, cyanara baby, here's the pattern that's in play and price is going to go down and test or should test 26910 out there, that is where price most recently broke out inside the Dow for the five hour timeframe, so again, the five hour timeframe, the ESNQ are showing us signals out here. The Russell 2000 isn't any place for UNI to get signals right now, because they just aren't, they just really aren't out here, here's the five hour timeframe, really nothing much here to identify any type of top or bottom, there's nothing on the daily timeframe out here that identifies a top or bottoming pattern, so the Russell 2000 is not the place for UNI to be focused on in looking at the ESNQ, it's just, it's not there. So that's what I would look at. If I go to the short term timeframe charts, I just don't have an edge here just yet inside the ESMini. If I look at the ESMini, here's what it's doing on a 30 minute basis, we're looking for a bottoming signal out, we might be there with the TD set up a nine count on a 30 minute basis, so that says if the lows of today get taken out, this bottoming type signal here would have been at prices likely headed back to 3550 out here, but you need to see a failure of this pattern, we don't have the failure of that pattern just yet, but we might get that before the end of the trading session today, so today's close could be a more important day out there. So that's all that Stevie's really got out here as I take a look at the market, so let me just check real quickly see if there's any other questions, if you've got questions in the den, fire away, actually looks like we're going to go to the two minute wrap, we've got about another 10 seconds, so Nick has a question, let's try to take a look at it, can you look closer at the Dow at a small time frame, and can I take a look at the DAX? Well and the Dow itself, here's the Dow through the equity futures contract out here, you've got this TD set up nine count, again Nick, it's the low of the day, it's the high of the day, we've got a bad close coming in, we have bad close coming in the close, really terrible language out there, expect 27 to 16 to be at the level where the YM would head to, that's your short term chart. We'll be right back. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion, while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil was under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls, thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfnn.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com. It's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th, 2002 when gold was trading at April 11 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices, gold may be poised for its next big run. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. As of April 1st of this year, the gold report currently has eight active positions with an active position. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your gold report subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com Don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today. You know what's cool taking something that's good for you something specifically formulated to help with weight loss, better sleep, stress reduction and the need to detox. Nicar hunter and gatherer ancestors found all their nutritional requirements for their health. They no longer contain the vitamins, minerals and nutrients our bodies need to stay healthy and strong. That's why we need primal edge daily nutrition. It includes a special blend of ionic, soil based vitamins, minerals, fatty and amino acids in an easy to use liquid form. Primal edge is powered by highly concentrated folic and humic acids. Nature's preferred delivery system. They have been called miracle molecules because they need to be healthy and thrive. We take it every morning. Primal edge formulated and approved by Nico and Page of living a primal lifestyle. Buy it today for just $89. Click on the primal edge banner on the front page of tfnn.com. This is David White.  Welcome back, folks. So, Dick also wanted to take a look at the time frame chart. This is the weekly time frame chart here. And what we notice is that when it formed its high this is back in early part of July out here a couple weeks ago. What we can see is it did so with wave number seven. That's letter G and since then we've seen a pullback on a weekly chart 12 225 is going to be its level of support. If it gets below that, that's Stevie's green line and that is going to be our main signal per se on the daily time frame out here, Nick, but we, you know, the importance of showing this is we've shown a couple of charts during today's show that are in wave number seven letter G out there. And so you just really want to pay attention. They don't always turn into tops or bottom. If they did, I would just tell you to back up the truck and fire away right now in those indices where they're present, but like the transports as an example, but that's not how you and I can trade or should trade out there. So let's just do it. Sing today's close is going to be important tomorrow. Session is also important out there. This is the weather man just simply looking at the charts. We've got the super Doppler up. It's just saying, you know, be careful out here in the markets. These patterns may not come to fruition. Look, the volatility index is still well below its 50 day exponential moving average out there. Um big symbols. Here we go. The 50 day exponential moving average is at 14 89 where 12 85. The meaning there is just simply that there's plenty of liquidity inside of the marketplace. So we spent the hour here taking a look at what the indices are doing, what things to be watching for. We've looked at the five hour timeframe charts inside the equity futures contract. We're looking for signals will probably have a much better idea tomorrow at one o'clock, which is one o'clock, which is one o'clock. Because it's an amazing line at my favorite polar bear, David White. He's up next, and then you got Obi one Kenobi. He's up from three to five. Stevie's son. He'll be back with you tomorrow 1 p.m. So have a terrific Monday. Really marvelous Monday. It will just have a terrific Tuesday when it gets here. Take care and see you soon.


Hi, I'm Russ. And I'm Meg. And this is Coco. And we're from County Wexford, Ireland. And you're watching Trucker Josh on YouTube. Well, Chevy, what do you have to say? What do you have to tell the good people? Say good morning. Say good morning. Say good morning. Good morning, everybody. We're here in Calgary, Alberta. We're about to deliver that freight that got added onto our trailer last minute. We'll get that off my trailer. I really don't want it anymore. It's weighing me down. I'm going to go to Sundra, Alberta after that and pick up a load of lumber that I don't have to tarp. Thank you, God. And we're going to take that to Fargo, North Dakota, which is about 1,700 kilometers, a little over 1,000 miles. So I want to get as far as I can today yet. So we've got to quickly go here, get unloaded, rush over there, get reloaded, and book it. Like we had never booked it before. Alright, let's make our way out of here for two hour delivery. I said they were going to unload us by one o'clock, and it's just before noon right now, and they're just around the corner. I'm going to show up there at noon, start getting my tarps off. Hopefully around 12.30 they'll be able to start unloading me so I can be out of there by one. I have to stop somewhere and get fuel on the way yet because I tried to fuel here yesterday, but their pumps shut down and weren't working right when I got here. And I didn't want to wait there all evening for their pumps to be turned back on and then lose a good parking spot. So I figured I'd fuel up today instead. So we've just begun un-tarping here. This is where the glass was. This is just this big empty gap on the lower flatbed here. Stepped bed, stepped deck. Started taking the bungees off the back there already. And yeah, so we're going to get these tarps off, and I'm going to back up just a little bit out into that open space over there. We're going to unload there. I'm just taking my tarps off here, putting back here out of the way where I'm not going to be blocking anything or anybody. Better get to work. Actually, we've got two loads waiting for us. If we're late picking up one, they all get delayed. And you see, that's what's underneath there. Same thing in the back. You guys saw this when I was loading it, right? Super flimsy, super sharp, like every single one of them has super sharp little tin edges like this. Can you see that? I just want to rip through your tarps, all of these pipes here. So it's very fragile, very bendy. It's what I call very bendy. And you want to tie it down tight enough so that it doesn't fly off, right? But you also don't want to tie it down too tight as to damage it. Oh, so it's like a balancing act. This kind of freight isn't really a lot of fun. Oh, I'm all dirty and tired again. That's okay. The trailer is empty. The load is complete. They signed the bills. They were happy. Another happy customer. We've got to rush over to Sundra before they close. I want them to throw that lumber on me. I want to be on my way. We're going to cross into the U.S. into the state of North Dakota from Saskatchewan at Portal. That's the name of the town. North Portal, Saskatchewan and Portal, North Dakota across through there. I don't know if we're going to cross through today yet. I highly, highly doubt that. I'll have to wait until tomorrow to get my border clearance done. I could do it myself, but the office likes to take care of that stuff. Whatever. I won't be there tonight anyway. By the time we get going, it'll probably be like five o'clock. Diving till probably around midnight. Looks like we finished unloading just in time. Getting a bit of a rain cloud pass over us here. It should be gone pretty soon. Ooh, that was a very pink light, my friend. Very pink. See, here's flying JJsoft to our left. Grab some fuel and head up Sundra. So it's 2.30 now. By the time we get out of here, it'll be like 2.45 or so. 3.45. Oh boy, we're going to be there after four o'clock. I hope that they load later tonight. Otherwise, we're going to have to wait till tomorrow morning to get loaded. I mean, that'll work still, but hey, not as good. It's going to be kind of a waste of an afternoon if I got to wait till tomorrow morning. Continue 200 meters. Then turn left on 116 Avenue, South East. We're exactly 150 kilometers away from Sundra. I would like to be a lot closer than that already. Unfortunately, we can't go much further without some of this stuff. Some go-go juice. Hopefully their pumps are working today. I'm parked in Olds, Alberta right now. I'm on the street behind another truck where there's no parking signs. So this is where we're going to be spending the night. I'm going to go into that grocery store over there called No Frills. Won't be beat, is their slogan. Well then, Mr. No Frills or Mrs. No Frills or whatever you are, you say you won't be beat, I put you to the challenge. I'm going to go there and see how their prices are. Now, I get paid in two days. And I've got exactly $48 to last me for food until then in the budget. So $48, two days. Should be all right. Pretty much all I'll buy is probably bread. I need some peanut butter. I'll get some sandwich meat. I've already got Miracle Whip in here. Miracle Whip. And I think that's all I really need. I can just survive off that. Oh, and breakfast, what do you call those things? Breakfast smoothies? Not breakfast smoothies. Breakfast, whatever, some breakfast stuff. Just for me. I usually don't have big breakfasts, not usually. So I'll just get some yogurt or something for granola bars for breakfast. Sandwiches for the rest of the day and that should easily. If I can't make it two days on $48, there's something wrong with my eating. Maybe that's why I got this. Maybe to lose this, I've got to spend a little less money. Chevy, you want to go outside before I go in there? Would you like to go outside? You're not very convincing. You got to convince me. You want to go outside? Come here. Come here. Give me a hug. Give me a hug. Come here. Oh, good boy. Okay. I'll take you outside. I'll take you outside. You convinced me now. You convinced me. Good boy. You want to go? Should we go right now or should we go later? Should we go right now? Right now? Yeah. Okay. I'm going to take him outside and then go in there. Actually, look at this. I actually have a $48 Canadian and I have two whole American dollars. I could almost buy me a yacht with these things, you know, with the exchange rate. Almost. Let's get in there because I want to get back in here, set up my little office cubicle and then start working on some videos for you guys because my life never slows down. I just got to keep going, going, going. And it's not Sunday so we got to work. There's a fly in here. I'm going to have to catch. Oh, you're right here. No, I didn't get him. I'm not fast enough. Got to work on my speed. Okay. Let's put on our crocs. Yes, I wear crocs. My wife hates it.  Yes, I wear crocs because they're super easy to slip on and slip off. They're my trucking shoes. What? Super. Look, look. See they're waterproof. They're light. I've used these for two years already. They've lasted longer than some of my work shoes. All right. I'll see you in a little bit. I'm going to run in there. Yep. A lot of hurry up and waiting going on this trip. So I have been hurrying all day as soon as they unloaded me. They only wanted to unload me at noon. So I got there at noon and I've been just busting my butt. Going as fast as I can. Trying to get to my pickup in Sundra before, you know, end of business hours 4, 4.30 or so. So I give them a call when I'm on the way. I'd be like, all right, I should be there around four o'clock. Like, are you guys still there? I thought maybe they might be leaving at four and I would understand that. But the guy's like, no, we left at 2.30. 2.30? You get to go home at 2.30? That must be nice. I get to go home next week. But anyway, so they leave at 2.30. So we're waiting around till tomorrow morning. He gets there around 6 a.m. I'll probably get there shortly after something like that. But it's fine, whatever. I just get a lot of sitting to do. I'm actually using this time to catch up on all my computer work and stuff. And I had like four videos I had to edit. I just got one more to do and then I'll be completely caught up with that. And I'll go to bed early, get a really good night's sleep, wake up tomorrow morning, refresh, renewed, go pick up my load and book it towards Fargo. About a thousand miles. And we'll get as far as we can. I'm sure we'll get into the U.S. tomorrow. Probably pretty close anyways. Hopefully there's no more delays. This trip has been all about delays, yikes. But anyway, it's part of the job. I still love my job. I love what I do. Like I'm in Olds, Alberta right now. I just went shopping. I showed you that already. I'm shopping over there and sitting over here enjoying the day. Went for a little bit of a walk. I do love my job. I get to see somebody. What other reason would I have to come to Olds, Alberta? No offense to you guys in Olds, Alberta. This is a beautiful town. That's not what I mean. I don't mean that there's no reason to come to Olds, Alberta. Really, what would bring me here other than work? I don't know anybody here. I don't know anybody around here. I have an uncle who lives in Wataskawin that I don't see very often at all.  And that to me is my favorite part of the job. I don't really care about the freight I'm pulling. Yeah, that's fun too. But it's not the most fun. The most fun is seeing these places that I know I would have never seen otherwise. But anyways, hope you guys enjoyed the short little video we had today. Didn't have much to talk about. Tomorrow will be a long day of driving. And like I've been telling you, we're just picking up some lumber and don't have to tarp it. It's going to be super easy. You just toss a few straps over it and you're done. By the time I get there, it should be less than an hour and we'll be on the way. So I hope you tune in tomorrow. If you're new here, welcome. Don't forget to subscribe. Hit that like button. If you want to be in the intro that you see in front of all my vlogs now, you can film it on your phone or whatever. Email it to me at TJV, like Trucker Josh Vlogs. TJV at email.com, not Gmail. Email.com. And I'll include it in an upcoming vlog and I'll probably rotate them in the future. So you'll probably see yourself more than once. Just don't forget that if you send me a video, you are giving me permission to use it in a monetized video. And if there's miners, I'd just appreciate it if you'd give me some parental consent in the email saying, hey, it's cool. It makes me feel a little, little better because I'm going to use them more than once. And if you make a video that's a little bit too big to send through email because I know that there's only a certain amount of space you can use in an email or you can only send a certain size of file. If it's too big, if you have Dropbox, download it onto your Dropbox, get the link and send the link to my email. I have Dropbox, then I'll be able to go to the link and download it. And we can do that. Keep it under, keep it somewhere between 15 to 30 seconds or so. Be good. Make it your own. Be creative. I love, I love including them in the vlogs. And usually at the end of the vlog here, I include the intro that's going to be at the beginning of the vlog in the next vlog. So you get, actually, you get in there twice. First, you'll see yourself at the end of the video. And then the next day, you'll see yourself at the beginning of the video. Take care, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow. Hey, this is John from the Trucker John Show. And this is Bailey. When we're not driving our big truck, we're hanging out with Trucker Josh at TJV.