Hey what's up you guys, welcome back to my channel. If you're new here, hi, hello, I'm Lydia and if you are new here, make sure you hit the subscribe button and join the growing family. We're aiming to hit 10k by the end of the year. I know we can do it, let's work together, raise awareness. Let's do this. So today is a video that I've made in the past, twice, but they're both so I am today making a video talking about my mental health story full in depth, so I have to do this. Trigger warning, I will be talking about eating disorders, suicide attempts, self harm, all shabang, so please be prepared for that. Watch it with your own, watch it your own, what's the word I'm looking for? Basically, don't watch if you're gonna get triggered by the talk of what I just mentioned. I was trying to use natural lighting, I failed at me. How dare it. So my story takes starts when I was seven, I was being abused by my mom and in short that made me turn to self harm. I used to take the metal ends of pencil, pencil sharpen them and I used them and that that sharpened objects to go like that. I didn't know it was called self harm, I thought it was a normal way of coating, I now know that it's not a way of coping, it's very self destructive and very addictive. Lessons will have been learned. So that's when I started self harming. The next big thing that really happened was when I was 30, I was sectioned under the Mental Health Act and I was diagnosed with bipolar type one because I was experiencing a manic slash psychotic episode, which really it is what it is. My grandma's bipolar, my mom's bipolar, so it runs in the family. So that was a pretty big deal. Then when I was 16-ish, I passed out in the middle of science class because I hadn't been eating and I had the BMI of 13.6. I preferred eating disorder services who saw me twice before I turned 18 because when I grew up children's services ran up to 18 years old. When I was under eating disorder services, there was a conversation about hospitalization but I moved away to the uni so I got discharged and I was too old. I turned 18, they referred me to adult services. Adult services were going to intervene by me going to the hospital then I moved away. Hashtag avoiding getting sectioned. So now we're 18 years old, we're at university, the first university. University Central Lancashire. Shit uni, don't go to it. So eating disorder services were not very helpful. Then I moved to uni, I put on a bit away because I was, I had friends. In secondary school I had no friends, I was bullied. If you're interested in my bullying story, I'll leave that on my iCard. I'll leave this on my iCard too. There were two videos, not one bullying, one as an adult and one for high school. I don't always say high school, I wasn't high school and it was, it was a private secondary school but anyway. So at university I started having really strong suicide allergies because I missed my family which, I mean who doesn't miss the family? My grandma came to visit me on the train and I was 45 minutes late getting up so I was late meeting her because I just started sleeping tablets. So when I moved to Lancashire, this is when I got started trialing medications. I did try a few while I was under camps but I reacted badly to them so I had to stop them. The first one was ferocitin, I was 70 yen when I tried that and nope I got sent home from college four days in a row and now I'm relaxing. It's, it's, I don't know how to explain my story because there's so many different elements in that. So in Lancashire, basically I was suicidal and I called the well-being office at the university and said I was suicidal. They asked like, I said no I'm walking around the park which I was and they sent security around and then they called the police. Yeah this is a lot of medication trialing. I saw an outrower's GP and he stied me on a diazepam so my first experience on a benzo was when I was in Lancashire. I was put on to diazepam 10 milligrams three times a day and I continued that until I moved to London but we're not ready to move London yet we're still on diazepam. About two weeks after I started diazepam I overdosed and I got taken to A&E by police and I was on a section 136. So when I was medically treated they took me to a 136 suite and I genuinely didn't know if I was gonna get sectioned or if they'd let me go home and it was right but it was the day before I was supposed to get a train down to my family to see them for Christmas. So I was praying they let me go home and they did. They said they didn't, they could manage me better in the community than in hospital which I appreciate. Then we fast forwarded a year so my second year at university I had a care coordinator, I had a psychiatrist, I had a psychologist and I had a support worker. Don't see a support worker twice. I think I did. In my experience medication is trial and error. Now when I was impressed in a trial and error ability I reacted badly to that. They had me on propanenal.  So I hate living on main road. So anyway back to the video rather than me pretending to be a car. I never said that in a video before. I got a sectioned twice but that year was also the year I got arrested and assaulted by officers. That's something I don't talk about very often anymore because I got a lot of hate for it. But when I got arrested, I'm not a criminal guy. The charges against me got dropped because they read out my custody record because they refused me bail because of risk to self. They had me sectioned because of risk to self. Yet why would I go? Because I called the crisis team and they called the f***ing police and I was wasting police time. I didn't ask them to be there. Oh, it still angers me so much that does. So that was on the 16th of June. June because court was in July. So between that I was sectioned before that. I was sectioned after that and then I went home to my mom and when moves on holiday in summer set I made the decision to withdraw my studies from the University of Central Lancashire. If you want me to make a video on why, the reason I dropped out of uni. Let me know and I will make that video. It's because there's more to it than I just didn't think I could study up there anymore. There's a lot to it and a lot of reasons why I will never recommend that university. So moving on. I then started at UWL, University of West London. Fresh start, didn't know anybody. Started from first year. First year went okay. I did get hospitalised a few times which then videos are on my channel. If you're interested in psych ward diaries, have I called them? I'll link the playlist up there.  So my first year at UWL went okay. I did get sectioned once and I got thrown on the floor and beat on but I've made a video about that. Again, they'd be on the iron card. So that brings us to when I moved to Kingston. Now when I lived in Kingston, I was okay for the first few months. Then I got sectioned and I posted on Twitter. Can anybody go to my flat and pick up some things for me? I'll pay you back. And that's how I met Becker. If you don't know who Becker is, Becker is my ex and we did loads of videos together. If you scroll down on my channel page, there's an LGBT one. Check that out. There's drive with me is that we've done because Becker can drive. I can't. Still have no licence. I've got provisional licence. I can drive. I can be ensured if the driver's had over five years of experience. So that's why I was able to drive Becker in the car. But anyway, that's not my main health story. That's just story news. Then it came to January and I've got sectioned. I put on section two. Transfer to a ward. The ward itself was actually quite nice. I was on one-to-one the entire admission because of risk to self. I tried to break my neck by climbing the windows and throwing myself backwards. And yeah, that admission was traumatising really because some of the staff treated me horribly. There's one that I remember that was lovely that I saw again about the year after when I was admitted. She was lovely. Honestly, 10 out of 10. So then we moved into a flat with Becker and it was 2020. And I don't think I need to say this but 2020 was lockdown. And it really, really fucked with me a lot because I was also having trouble with keeping food down. So I was relying a lot on my milkshakes. I had the four-to-sip drinks. I'll put a picture on screen of what they are. I also changed antipsychosis during this time. I changed from from quick therapy into haloperidol, which worked for me.  It does well for me and it keeps me out of hospital.  So yes. I do take prosycosium because it makes me stiff but that's it. If two pills can do that and change my life, I'll take the two pills. When me and Becker lived together, I tried so hard not to attempt suicide and now to be really real and honest. I was prescribed amitriplein at 25 milligrams. I took it in the lounge and I took all of it and then I went and got into bed with Becker and I just fell asleep. I hope they wouldn't wake up but that's what I did. I've never ended up to that and now I think back and what would Becker have done if she'd woke up and I was dead? So then we moved to the Gearing Hospital. Yes that's right. I spent a year in patient and there are plenty of videos on my channel from that time period. If you scroll back a bit, I can't link them on the icon because I've already used up all my almost lots. Truthfully, I don't think it's possible that my life could have gone any other way. But the year before I went into hospital, I took my overdose of insulin as well and that was serious. I was restrained to have glucose because I would have died. It's scary when it gets close and you actually get close to death. Relax mode. The main point of me sharing my story is to raise awareness. Now currently I'm struggling with my weight. I've lost 5 kilograms in three weeks. Some days I'm not eating. Some days I am. My blood sugars have been low and I got weighed this morning and I am at 63 kilograms now. That actually makes it 7 kilograms I've lost. I am just trying to get down to 55 kilograms which is a healthy weight cast for me because I'm 5 foot 2 or those who don't use that I am 157 centimeters. I've left parts of my story now of this. Living in London is the worst thing ever when you're trying to film YouTube videos.  But yeah I've left some parts of my mental health story out because I don't feel comfortable sharing but just know that you're not alone. Anything you're going through. I'm now one year and a month free from cell harm and two months sober because I had a relapse in December where I drank an entire bottle of vodka after five years of being sober.  We've been five years sobriety just to have a bottle of vodka. And to throw up anyway so it doesn't even matter. I was very drunk. I don't have any videos from that but I wish my sister had filmed it before I started drinking hilarious. My little sister was my bodyguard. She was taking care of me while I was drunk. She's 11. She found it hilarious. She's never seen me drunk before. I live with my mom, I never drink. When the grandparents provide vodka I do drink. But anyway thank you for watching this video. I'm sorry about how long it is. I had a lot to say. I hope this gives you some hope for the future. Things do get better. It may all be a year free from suicide in the towns so it is possible. You're not alone in any of this. Yes. Stay safe, stay sober, stay drunk. Peace. My, oh clouds will run the sun. No biggie. I have a light.


Okay, good morning traders and welcome to the order flow event here today with Oliver. This will be in German and Oliver is going to go through his trade analysis, his analysis of market structure and then potential trade opportunities and then live market analysis. So let me go through the disclosures here and also I will be pasting this into the chat here Oliver's website and his Instagram so that you guys can reach out. He does offer education so you can click directly on the links. Go through the disclosures and I'll turn it right over to Oliver and let him take it away. General disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. This disclosure trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All right with that said Oliver, let's see if your screen is shared there, it shouldn't be shared yet. So here we go. You should see it now. Okay. Excellent. Perfect. So thanks for the introduction Bruce. I can't grab my discord yet. Give me one second please. Okay. Here we go. You guys should see a book map now. Yes. It looks great. Perfect. Okay. Perfect. Here we go again. From my side to the last German language against bookmap webinar of the year. We are standing shortly before Christmas. After Christmas, as you probably know, the markets are relatively illiquid. Personally, I always have a free time there and enjoy a bit of the time of trading in order to start successfully again in the next year. However, today was definitely a nice trading day. There was a lot to take with us. I hope you've all been to the markets and traded a bit. Otherwise, let's start with the usual procedure. And that's like always the risk-example in German. What we do here is for purely educational purposes. This is not an investment advice. The trade with futures is connected with risks. And if you decide for a trade, then you always trade on your own risk and in your own consciousness. I save you as always to read the complete text here. But you know, that definitely has to be said briefly at the beginning. Very briefly to me, my name is Oliver Sparing. I started in 1987. I have been working at the stock market for about 11, 12 years now. I learned my craft in a prop trading floor in London and have been working closely with the company bookmap and the company Trading to Win for several years. To be able to imagine this veterinarian among others here. What do we have today? Who has been with you more often already knows the procedure. We start, as always, with one or two trade analyses of my own traded trades. I take it as good as any of my trades for the customers in my training on-screen recording to make it available. And then also explain exactly what I thought about each situation. What was the basic situation? When was the time when I opened the trade? How did I manage the trade? And about these screen recording recordings, of course, you can understand that very well afterwards and explain. And I want to show you these screen recording recordings today. I have a very, very interesting trade today. A somewhat boring, but very, very interesting trade in the CL that I would like to introduce to you. And I also have a exciting trade in the ES in which you can learn one or the other. Here we look at it right away. After that, let's go on. We will jump briefly into the ATAS software to do a rough mark structure analysis in the ES. The whole thing again with volume profile and market profile in which we define interesting locations in which trades come into view. You know, my personal trading style sees that always two questions are answered that where and what. Where does the course have to go so that we can look at a trade in and if the course is there and even if it is there, what does then have to happen in order flow so that we buy up or buy away. Point three, live market analysis. We take a look at the book map, look at the ES. Let's see where we are right now. On today's day, we also look at the market opening and look at where we are right now interesting situations have in which trades may possibly be possible and what would have to happen so that we can go into these trades. Everyone and you who are on YouTube and of course also old Discord viewers can always ask questions in the chat places. That is both for YouTube, as I said, as well as for Discord. I always look in there and see if any questions are coming up and then of course also look at that I get the answers right away. Otherwise, at the end of the session, we still have a little time to look at our special questions. So that's enough of the lecture. We jump right here into the practice. As soon as I've cleaned everything up here and that's my recording of the last sessions, that's the CL trade. Let's leave it to us as second. We're going to look at the ES trade for the first time. That's the wrong data that should be here. We're going to look at the ES trade for the first time. Let's see what the basic situation is here. As you can see, my recordings are always from two windows. In the background, I have a big book map as core software of my analysis. And here I still have a small window of Arthas open with a footprint chart and a five minute candlestick chart so that we have a better overview of the big picture and how the current course course is going to be in five minutes. Where are we currently looking at the volumes and the mark structure? And where are the current levels that we have defined in the framework of our morning analysis? These are always these white lines that I have drawn here. What I just said in my lecture, for me, a trade comes only when the course is at such a level. So, you see, the course is here in the framework of a temporary off-road trend for the first time in this zone here at 4,032 points. By the way, the recording is not from today. I don't want to hold you in front of it. Let me take a quick look. This is a trade from 5th to 12th, so a few days ago. Still, it was a very exciting situation because, as you can see, the first one goes into the pants and the second one will be a winner. So, we have already in the foreground the first reflection shortly after the market opening, the US market opening at this level. Here you would have had a very good trading opportunity in the long direction. Now we come back to this level and touch it right now. And we can already see that a lot is going on here. I'm going to press play here so that the course can start running. So, we can already see that a lot has happened here in the foreground before my trade opening. Among other things, this great liquidity has been filled here in the bid at about 4,033 points. The course then has been here for a whole time over this or rather at this price level. It may look a little bit like the buyer here. Take over the Zepter. We have seen a lot of adding in the bid and we also see here in my PD plot line that the whole thing is yellow. That means the active... Now the first trade is out. I'm already a little bit ahead of myself. Maybe a short break. So, the first buyers have come in here. However, we were not yet at our trading location at this point. That's why it's so important to me. We have just reached this trading location after giving this heftier stop-run here. And in addition to this stop-run, this larger limit order was also filled here. And it was not only filled, but you can see very, very nice how it has come here at the same time to this strong debt situation. So the course is almost like a sign of this limit order. It was immediately after the limit order was filled here in the largest part. It was added again and not only at the price level here at about 4,030 points, but also down. So, now the course has, however, stabilized here at this small side-to-side consolidation at this price level. We can see very, very nicely. It has given this turquoise bubble here. So, a decent market was sold in here. There was once again a decent push. And after giving this push, the whole thing was painted here in gold. For me, the turquoise colors are always for active, aggressive market buyers and the golden colors are always more for the purchase side. So, here we can see very nicely that directly in contrast, the buyers have become active, streamed in the market. On the other hand, it was added here in the bid. And that was enough for me in this moment of view to open my long order here. And as you can see, it was a short trade. I flew out of the market right away. And what you see now is very, very exciting, because now we have here with the so-called flipping to do. The order that we had here before in the bid, or rather not the order, but obviously one of the others. But you see, before we had the liquidity in the bid. And now I'm playing around here. So, a little bit of pre-spawn. It's coming up here now as a liquidity cloud. To do that, we'll see in a minute, when I blend the window of ATAS here again. Now we have our level with a gold closing course down through Stoßen. With that, I have my basic equipment, after which I also had my loss trade, immediately switched from long to short. That's from a psychological point of view, sometimes not so easy. I think most traders, and I don't mind that. That was a long time ago. Most traders would then hold on to their previous attitude and maybe try to find a reentry here again. And maybe try to get into this long trade again. But, and that's important, if the market... Sorry, I'm a little bit cold. If the market gives us other signs and something else says, then we also have to be able as traders to focus on new situations and then act accordingly. There are two options here. Either I look at the market, here for the first time 10, 20, 30 minutes, before I even look at the next trade. That's totally fine. Or I'll take a different market to get rid of my bias, my preconception. If you have a little bit of experience and can see yourself in the situation, but also if you change the objective index in the market, and change the previous long trade as I did here on short, we'll see how orders are immediately added. There's liquidity coming in and it doesn't come in anywhere, but it comes in at our breakout level and at our previously defined location in the market. That's exactly what we want to see in this case. So the market comes up to the level again. We also see very, very nice here, where the bid lag, the bid limit lag has accumulated a bit here. There was once again a huge push here. At this point, the active buyers are still working, but you can already see that they don't really come out of the corner. They don't really get the course to the top. There are maybe two or three ticks here. But then there's a fire evening, then the course pops up here on this cloud at Limit Orders in ASK and doesn't really get through here. As I said, the whole thing motivated me to turn the whole thing on short and click on short trade. I'm currently in here with two contracts. Now we're already in Netto in Plus. As I said, here we had the final course underneath our location, underneath our levels. There are always very, very nice situations that you can trade like that. Then pull back on the level and then you can go to the opposite side. Now you can see here, there's a sort of ominous orange line in the market. It draws me into the trade finder. That's a plugin extension for Bookmap. There are different order flow events here. Good to be able to visualize this iceberg order that we just had in the market. It didn't last long, the level immediately filled. Now we can see how on the other side, as I said, I'm here with two contracts. Now we can see on the other side how it's being added here in Bit. Here, again, liquidities are strengthened in the area around the 4025 points. That's why I've already put my first order in this area to realize the first part of the order. Because of the total profit here, 387 in the front, netto with the loss that we had before, we're here with 87 in the profit. That can of course be a good spoofing. Of course, we don't know that with the amount of liquidity that comes in spontaneously and in the vicinity of the course. It's more about spoofing orders that try to push the market in a certain direction, like in this moment too. The limit order comes in, the course reacts immediately, runs upwards, but as you can see, the course also comes back. These orders that came in here are only filled to a small part at the last end. So the biggest part was actually here, obviously spoofing orders. That's where the liquidity came in, so that I also put my second limit order here. And then also with my second contract here out of the market. Now there are still 87 dollars and 50 cents here.  That's no problem. So losers belong in trading. That's what you all know about running business. As I said, it would have been okay, the market didn't react as I had originally imagined it to be. My original trading idea didn't work out. Accordingly, it would be completely legitimate to say, I just put my finger on it. In that case, I just saw a setup here which I basically like very much. And accordingly it was also completely in order here, as I said, to turn the trade idea into a short one. So here we are anyway in a temporary trading trend. And to this point here the imbalance on the short side lag. What does that mean? This white line that you see in the middle, which when it falls below zero, gets so dark blue. It basically misses the distance of the liquidity. That is, the limit orders that are taken away from the current course. Why are 20 ticks taken away? Because the near liquidity that is usually thought to be spoofed here, we want to exclude it from this calculation but we only want to measure what the guys do that keep the limit orders a little further away from the course in the market. Why is that such an important measure instrument? We have already talked a lot about this in the last sessions. The market that comes in close to the course comes in spontaneously into the market. That is, as I said, spoofing orders and these orders are usually thought to advance the market false strength and push the course away from itself, while liquidity that is further away from the course and that is possible longer in the market, such as these two big limit orders up here. They pull the market like a magnet. The market wants to go there where he can find a possible successful auction process and that is where the liquidity lies. Besides, we have to assume that the big guys who put these limit orders in the market do not put them out of fun and good mood, but usually have some information that they are there to say, okay, the course will probably come here otherwise I would not place my limit orders there. That means that if our imbalance line is in the negative area, dark blue, then we have an excess of liquidity on the bid side, then the course tends to go down and if this line is white, then we have an excess of liquidity on the ask side, then the course tends to go up. Does he always have to get up? No, of course not. We are here in trading, on the brink of the road, everything can happen, but the more objective indices we of course come from the market to work in a certain way to work in a certain direction, the better. That was trade 1. I'll take a quick look at the chats to see which questions have come up. Give me a second. What day is the trade? That was, as I said, a trade in the US on the 5th of December, shortly after the US market opening against 15.45. The first quarter hour after the US market opening and the gold explicit for the US, I don't trade at all. I'll take a quick look at what the markets are doing, what the US explicit is doing and wait until the most necessary business is done. That doesn't mean that it has to be like that. There are various, very, very effective, efficient and also lucrative opening strategies where we can use different opening types very well. I personally don't trade such strategies, but it doesn't have to be open drives or open test drives or open auctions or something like that. Those are very, very exciting topics. You can take good care of them. But I wait until the market becomes a little quieter and then trade at my locations. I'll take a quick look at the discord. Is there another question? Is my discord window weird again? We don't have anything to add. We continue with trade spy and this is a trade in the CL Erdölfuture and it is from this afternoon, I think. That was wrong again. There it should be. It should click on it. We'll wait until I have settled in. That looks good. So this time we are not only in a temporary off-road trend in the CL, but here in a pretty momentum run. We are here all levels that I have applied in the tomorrow's analysis relatively easy. We have these levels relatively easy to run. Here it would be around the $75 of a very interesting trading opportunity after we have seen a breakout from this temporary consolidation. Now we are again a level through. You can see that here, hopefully, in 5 minutes. We have the closing course again below this level. A relatively similar setup as what we just saw. Just that I didn't do the long trade here before because of the lack of order flow. And maybe one more step back. That's exactly the springing point. I have my locations here. At these locations I find liquidity and at these locations I find large market participants who position themselves there. That's why it's so important and that's why I personally just want to trade at these locations. But I'm not going to put any limit orders in the hope that the course will stop there. That doesn't work like that. These two questions are always important. Where does the course have to go? At the location. And what has to happen there? And if the order flow, if the market doesn't give us the signal that makes sense to open a trade then we don't do it. Very, very important. But now we are through this level. With a lot of market speed. And I have to say here I made a trade which is not typical for me. Why was it not typical for me? Because I really applied the computer two minutes before and opened Bookmap. Normally I always give myself a quarter of an hour to observe the markets to get a feeling of how the markets are today in which market phase we are in. What is the algorithmic activity, all kinds of things. And such fast trades I usually leave them. Here, however, for me the setup was so clear that I quickly opened the trader after I just opened my chart software. We had the breakout, we had the pullback at the level. And if we look at the whole thing in Bookmap we can see how we the best trading position actually would have been here after this stop run which the trader showed us. We can see how the liquidity at about 74.42 builds in ASK. The course comes here again at this level. It comes to absorption. On the ASK side here again in the style Market Käufer absorbs, glasses from the level and then consolidates again deeper. It's actually the whole time rather the Market Käufer rather the aggressive Käufer on the train, but they get the course here simply not treated up. This is a important factor in the order flow to see which side is on the rudder and gets their will fulfilled in the broadest sense. This is both for aggressive Market Käufer or for our Market Käufer but also for spoofers. This is also a very interesting fact when we see algorithmic activity, spoofing whatever, just see what happens afterwards. Does the party get their will fulfilled? This is of course a thing that gives us valuable information, but also which is just rolled over and the other side is stronger. This is of course also interesting for us. So now we are here in this side-to-side consolidation the course tends further and further down, pure price action high, deeper high, deeper high, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower. So course tends very clearly down. We are in an intact distance, we clearly have the imbalances here on our side, here in this case imbalt, is exactly what I just talked about. We have here again a proper push seen by the aggressive Käufer, they just didn't get their will, the course was immediately rejected again. We have here the liquidity that our stop can very, very beautifully protect and accordingly then here opens the short trade. So now let's let it run. Currently I am here with two contracts short and the first one I opened here down here. It was maybe a little too fast. I was afraid at this point that the course would break out from this little side-to-side consolidation that I wouldn't get in there. That would be annoying. That's why I'm here market with the market. No, I'm with the limit. Then here at the pullback the second limit order and it was from the beginning on my target or my intention. If the course is a little bit running against me and I get here closer to this liquidity at 74 42, then I would even take the third contract with me here. Now you have seen it. It immediately gave a little push down here and there I am now here with my third contract short. All stop orders are here two ticks over the larger limit at 74 42. And now let's take a look at it. Take a look at what happened around the course here.  After the stop run, take a look at the algorithmic activity here both in bid as well as in ask. So here it is really fought around the course. These are always trades that are C. Basically in the area of day trading and above all of course in the area of Skyping there is still much more there. I see myself as a classic day trader. We actually always like to see a follow through. We want to see that as early as possible what we promise from our trade. If I go short, then I want to see as much as possible that the course starts to sink quickly. The longer we collect here the more it is from the trading opportunity actually such a 50-50 chance. Because it can now basically the sellers are still in the hood alone from the trend, but of course it can now from this side range just as the buyers pass through and that can give a nice pullback in the in the off-road trend. That would of course happen as well. So now we see down here how the market and trade speed such a thing happens in the rule for breakouts. That's why it is always an important criterion for order flow traders to keep the market speed well in view, especially in the micro structure. And that has now a little bit let me doubt my trade, because there was this push here in the auction speed up. But I also want to see after this push that I just my in the case of sellers that is not the case here. They are incredibly difficult. Of course we are here too when is our trade here. We are at 11.15. That is of course also the most difficult with the cheapest trading time of the whole day. Amis are not in yet. Europeans are now going into the lunch break. So in between I say 11.30 and 13 o'clock is actually always dead pants. And I tend to open no more trades after 11 o'clock in this case. I did it because the situation here just looked too good. So now I have already seen, I have here already my stop order a little bit down because, as I said, in the moment where my sellers here can not pass, after this push in the auction speed I have become skeptical and my trade no longer has such a high potential. But to my great pleasure, here there was another option. Here we have now the buyers tried to go up, have the course, but no three meters to move up. And then there was the short push here since the market sellers down.  Here I have already taken out the first of my three contracts to neutralize the risk a little bit. Meanwhile, you can also see that the orders are already under my stop order, which means we will definitely go out with a winner. Now this liquidity down here in the bid is formed, at about 7390, I have now put in my second limit order. There would be my second part sale take place. Because I see here now it is currently added more in the bid than in the ask. No such beautiful situation in terms of activity around the course extremely strong. Now this spoofing order has come down here. The course has reacted to it for the first time, but not as strong. Nevertheless, it has left me here the second limit order a little higher to pull over this spoof. And also my stop always successive to pull here to simply secure winners. Basically with the last contract after all the chances that there is another breakout down here. In my head, however, I have already noticed that I would take over this liquidity at 7390 then also take out the third contract. Now you can see here is now a whole lot more in the bid than in the ask. That speaks now for the buyers to take over the Zepter and also in this price dynamics plot line. Here below we can see that the whole thing is getting more and more golden. The buyers are getting stronger accordingly, our trade here just has little potential. Accordingly, I have pulled the stop now even tighter. Actually, it would have been reasonable at this point, it actually looked more like long. Here it would have been reasonable maybe down the last contract in that moment where the course is coming. Maybe you could have been a little more reasonable and can take out the last contract. I wanted to give it a little more air. I speculated that there is another breakout down here. Our balance line is still in the bid, is still on the negative side. So we are still in the in-tact trade. Accordingly, I wanted to stop the last contract and in total with $ 430 out of the trade. That's my trades. I'll take a quick look at the chat. If you have any questions, please write in. Here is nothing first. That was the wrong window. Let's take a look at the special events chat. Nothing is here and in the special events channel nothing is going on. Okay, let me take a sip of water and then it goes directly with our market structure analysis in the ES. As already said, the most important or basis for everything I do here is a solid analysis of the market structure with the volume and the market profile. I do that with ATAS and of course with any professional charting platform. What is important is that you always want to do a market structure analysis as much as possible. That means everything that has already happened on this day on the volume accumulation, the TPO mountains that have been built in the market profile. All these are factors that of course influence us in some way in the way we estimate and look at the current market. In the moment where we draw our levels, our trading locations, we want to be as unforeseen as possible and want to do that as much as possible on the basis of the levels that we have seen on the day before or on the current day. That's why I always switch my chart on the day before or on the current day at 0 o'clock. So that I have all the information about what happened until today at 0 o'clock. I do both the market profile as well as the volume profile and also the 5-minute chart. And then I start to draw my levels. I don't want to say that it's an art, but it's definitely an important craft, which you can learn. Of course, we also go very, very deep and exactly into our training because it's just such a powerful tool. You can do that very, very precisely. And the more precise you are in the position to draw these levels, the better they hold at the end and the more valuable information that you can see better whether we can do it there with a possible breakout or a possible reversal. Of course, we do only a rough analysis of the market structure, a rough analysis of the levels. I hope you understand that. The first thing I always draw is the advantage is high. Not only with one line, but always with two lines so that we have ranges here and not just a simple line. Because a price level, a price location is always stretched over a certain price space, over a certain price span, and it's not just a certain price or so. That's why it makes sense to draw the whole thing with two lines or with the range tool. It's not yet available globally. I'm looking forward to it. Currently, if we want to have all these lines synchronized in all charts, then we just have to draw the global horizontal line. As I said, the other tools are also included in the global version. Then let's take a look at the price action that was given here on the day before. Where did he stop? Where did he stop? Where did he stop? And we can see that we are in a very close distance. I've always used two profiles for the current day. One is the profile for the pre-medium session. That's always a bit blurry. And the other profile is for the classic cash session. It's in the CL 15 o'clock. That was the time where the pit session took place on the Börsenpakket in Chicago. And these times, of course, still have great relevance today. That's why I give the profiles that we have here in the area of cash sessions, I always give more relevance than the pre-medium profiles, because there are much larger shops here. And accordingly, there is much more money here in the game. Now I see a area where we have found the gap. We came over here twice. But in any case, we always want to find our locations at price areas where prices were very low, where no successful auction process could take place, where only a few volume areas can be found. There are usually also later the areas where we have to deal with large liquidities, where large market participants position themselves, because these prices are very, very cheap or very, very expensive. And from which we usually have to deal with a lot of momentum. So, that would be a level that we can draw in here. Then we have this TPO of the pre-medium. By the way, I want to give you another overview. I always take it as an understanding, because I work with it daily, please forgive me. These white profiles, both for volume profiles and for market profiles, are purple and violet. These are the weekly profiles and the large blue in the background. That is always the current month profile. Now we see, for example, in the month profile, that we have a larger gap here on the basis of the pre-week. However, I always look at what happened in the last, in the youngest past. Here, for example, in the last week profile, we have such a edge here. It also confirms itself in the current month profile, as well as in the current week profile. We can still refine this a little bit here in the volume profile. As I said, I don't want to get too deep into this material here, but that we already have a little bit of our levels here. That would be from the yesterday's day. Then we have to go up now. There is no problem. We still have data available here. I would like to think about the next level here in this area. Let's put it here like this. And for the next level in the short direction, then we have to go back a little bit to find that. So, here I would look at the top edge of this TPO mountain in view for ten years. Very nice together with a edge in the volume profile. Let's take another one. If the course falls today, of course we know that to that point. And that is exactly the point I just talked about. It is important. We know at this point where we do this analysis here, with the information we have available here, we do not know how the course will run on the current day. And that is if we already see any course runs today or any accumulated volumes, then we of course go with a completely different perception of this analysis here. And if the levels are probably very different, then now we are through with our analysis, switch the whole thing back to real-time and see how exactly or not exactly we have drawn here, by looking at how the course is running today. That would be this here. We see very nice there. Our course is already here at this location at 3931 points, 3933 points ran here for the first time in the Asian session. That works at night when you are more difficult at night and want to trade at 2.30. That works at this time just as well as at this time as well. These locations no matter if I have drawn them on the basis of the European session profiles or the US session profiles, these locations are all comprehensive and the course will usually react to it. The course comes to the second time at our location. We see a nice reflection here again. There has also been a good trading opportunity here. As I said, this is always just our where we can look at the order flow and then get determination through the order flow and not just go pauschal short, just because we are there at the level. Currently, we come to the level again. The course has in the course of the pre-med session, our advantage is deep with great ease. And is also first again at resistance after we have reached our lower level in the course of the pre-med session. The course has been stabilized a little bit here. It has then broken down again. However, no volume can be accumulated here. So here was no trade interest in the market part anymore. Accordingly, the breakout goes up again. Pullback to this area.


Israel. Initially Reuters news reported that three Lebanese officials told them that the two rockets had been fired, one of which had landed in Lebanon. But this is coming after the Hezbollah terror group made threats earlier in the day, urging all of Lebanon to take action against Israel. For more on this, we are joined by our defense correspondent Jonathan Regev, who is currently at the Prime Minister's office. Jonathan, what do we know so far? Well, this is basically the sequence of events. It started roughly two hours ago with a report of an explosion very close to the Israel-Lebanon border, not clear on which side of the border. Only later on did the army confirm that some kind of a rocket was fired from Lebanon and landed just within Israeli territory. Shortly after that report, there were reports of some 15 artillery shots or artillery cannons fired towards Lebanon from Israel, sort of a response to what was fired from Lebanon. Just minutes ago, another report of an explosion inside Israeli territory, possibly another mortar shell, maybe more than one launched from Lebanon. These are the facts that we know so far. Of course, a very concerning development. These things you never know how they will develop. I can't tell you this, Ariel. It was about a few weeks ago. I attended a lecture by IDF chief of staff, Ertzi Alevi, who said that Hizballah is now in a place where they are constantly trying to challenge the IDF, but challenge it in a way that will not drag the area into a full-on war. We're seeing this all the time, a few months ago, the terrorists which crossed from Lebanon and planted an explosive device at the Megiddo junction from 15 miles away from the border. More recently, those tents that were built on the other side, on the Lebanese side of the border fence, but still in Israeli territory. Those two tents with the Hizballah personnel within Israeli territory. Now we're seeing these rockets fired, none of them heading towards populated areas, but still sending a message that Hizballah is constantly, constantly trying to challenge Israel. So Jonathan, what then is the trigger point for the IDF? If they're going to engage in these provocations, Hezbollah, what does the IDF do? When do they say enough is enough? Well, here we saw an example. Those rocket fired into Israel, not causing any damage, not causing casualty, not triggering alarms. It was clearly sent to a place where it will not create any major damage, but this is the place where Israel says, this is not something we can tolerate anymore. We have to retaliate. Again, a retaliation, not meant to drag the area into a full on war, not targeting installations or compounds or anything targeting opening open areas, but making sure that any fire towards Israel is there's at least some kind of response with fire from Israel towards Lebanon. Thank you very much, Jonathan. And we're going to come back to you as more information comes in, and you can fill us in on the latest of what's happened. Until then, though, we are going to return to our studio. We have a security panel forming here with our senior diplomatic correspondent, Owen Alterman, as well as our correspondent, P.S. Dekalbach. Let's jump directly into this with you first. Pia, this has against the backdrop of a great deal of Hezbollah, let's say, provocations, as well as threats over the past months. Give us the background. Right, Ariel. There have been serious tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in recent weeks. This is mainly focusing on two tents that have been set up by Hezbollah in recent weeks on the demarcation line, on the blue line that functions as a sort of border between Israel and Lebanon. Now, the area we are talking about, the area that is called Hardov by Israel and the Shabbat al-Fam's by Lebanon, Syria. This is an area that is claimed by three of those countries. But in fact, these two tents operated by Hezbollah are placed south of the blue line, basically positioning them in Israel. And these two tents, of course, Israel is demanded for these tents to be removed by Hezbollah. There have been negotiations through third parties such as the United States and France to come to a diplomatic agreement, if you will, between Israel and Hezbollah, because this has been also the topic of serious threats coming from Hezbollah that Israel was to remove these tents by force. This would lead to war. This would lead to a serious escalation. But now, in recent days, during the last week, we have heard that Hezbollah agreed to removing at least one of those tents. The UN peacekeeping unit forces are right now investigating whether that is indeed the case. But this morning we've heard renewed threats from Hezbollah, focusing also on the border fence that Israel has been working on, renewing for the past couple of weeks. That has also triggered serious clashes also between residents in the Israeli army. Thank you, Payah. We're going to move to you as well, Owen. We're hearing that this is most likely from Hezbollah position. It's not exactly confirmed that it's Hezbollah yet, but is very much signs pointing to that. What are the ramifications of this? Well, listen, I ate a wider frame, Ariel. This is a border that's always been tents, famously so. But after the 2006 war, for a number of years, for many years, it was a border that was very tense, but also quiet. There wasn't activity on it. There weren't clashes across it. But that's changed in recent years, and we've seen a kind of medium term trend of the situation gradually, and I think the emphasis on that word gradually, deteriorating until you get an event like this today, which, given that context, doesn't seem all that shocking or surprising. You're right. If it were indeed firing by Hezbollah of rockets, that wouldn't have sensed to be something new, right? Because rocket fire, we've seen in the past, has been reportedly done by Palestinian factions on the Lebanese side. So that would be something new, but it would be of a piece of this entire trend. And the question for Israel, and you got into it with Jonathan Regiff, how much is Israel willing to tolerate? And that's actually a very good jumping off point, because that is the question that we're going to be asking as well. Lieutenant Colonel Sareed Zahavi, who is joining us as well right now, let's jump directly into it. One, how much can Israel tolerate and what should Israel's response be? Well, it's a good question how much Israel can tolerate. I think the main cause of the main goal of Israel is to prevent war. But of course, the message should be sent that situation of making the northern border of Israel, the same as the southern border of Israel is unbearable. And this is something that Israel will not be able to tolerate. For us in Alma Center, it is clear that in the past year and a half, this is what Chisbara and Iranians are trying to do, are trying to raise the tension, maybe create more escalation on the northern borders. I've been on the border yesterday. I saw the Chisbara military operatives watching at me. This is something that is the daily reality. And it is clear that something is changing here. I wouldn't say gradually, but I would say in the past year and a half, Chisbara risk assessment totally changed. And that's actually what I want to follow up on, because as you just mentioned, we have seen provocation after provocation over the last year, including his ball up moving military positions directly onto Israeli territory. Why now? Why do they think they are strong enough to do that at this time? It's not a half. And the answer goes in various circles, beginning with what is happening inside Israel, but not only including what is happening in the Middle East in general, and even going all the way to Ukraine. It's the same line of risk assessment that is being done, whether in Beirut or in Tehran. And due to this risk assessment and probably misleading and unrightfully assessment on Chisbara's side, that maybe now it's a better time in. Iran is gaining more and more achievements in the Middle East. United States is not doing anything about the nuclear program of Iran. Chisbara feels that it has less to lose inside Lebanon because the situation is that bad. Israel is experiencing an internal crisis. And all of that together gives them the impression that maybe if they will rest the tension on the North and border, they will get some advantages from their own side. Again, I think they are wrong, but this is the assessment on the other side. And while we've been talking about Hezbollah, it's not exactly confirmed that it's them yet. What are the odds that this could be a Palestinian faction on the Northern border as well? It could be a Palestinian faction. The last case in Passover, it was clear that even though it was a Palestinian faction, Chisbara was involved. There were occasions that it was Palestinian factions, what we say in Hebrew, like under the nose of Chisbara. In this case, we don't know, but I cannot ignore the situation on the border in the past months as I see it, including the tense that you mentioned not far away from this place specifically. And that's why to say that this is Palestinian faction without talking about Chisbara, I think this is very misleading. And one of the things we've seen because you mentioned Hezbollah, you mentioned Palestinian factions, all of them have been seeing more and more support from Iran in recent years. How much does Israel have to look at the possibility of dealing with a constant multi-front battle of attrition back by a very powerful regional power? Look here, they are the best news and the good news. Iran is pushing hard to create a multi-front situation that Israel will be facing and from everybody who was talking around that in the past few months here. But we have seen in the past at least two escalations in Gaza and in Jenin that all the other players are not rushing to join the party full-scale to attack Israel from all fronts. I think that the Iranians still have a long way to go. But on the other hand, I believe that if there will be a north and front that will be open again around the interests of Hezbollah itself, there is a stronger possibility that Hamas and the PIJ will join in. What would be the trigger point from Iran's perspective to effectively launch this multi-front operation? Well, many things. First, again, assessment that Israel is weak enough to actually gain achievement or assessment that the strategic situation in the region bringing Israel to a situation that it's weak enough, considering also other players like United States and Russia. That's one thing. Another thing can be the nuclear issue. If they get into a situation that they actually get in progress in the nuclear issue and they want to draw the Israeli attention elsewhere, Lebanon could be a very effective sacrifice for them. Thank you very much, Sariq, for explaining just what's going on or at least a little look behind the scene so we can speculate, at least for now. Thank you very much. We're going to return now to our panel in studio. I want to start with you, Owen, again, because we had discussed what if it's Hezbollah, what if it's a Palestinian faction? What are the ramifications of it being a Palestinian faction? Right. Well, first of all, just a quick update, Ariel. We're getting reports that it was not, in fact, a rocket or a set of rockets that was fired across the line, but in fact, shells. And again, we saw the Israeli military answer with shelling. But obviously, look, you have to take very seriously what Sarita Havi just said, that again, no one acts in south Lebanon without Hezbollah's at least dissent. That's been the prevailing wisdom. I wanted to interrupt because we're just seeing a report right now that an IDF official has claimed that there is an assessment that it was a Palestinian terror group in Lebanon carrying out retaliation for Janine. Not a confirmation, but it is an insider saying that this is a intelligence speculation. Right. And important information if it's true. I mean, obviously, again, as I was saying, we have to take very seriously what Sarita Havi just said, right? That this is being done at least with Hezbollah's assent. And that is a change of policy and a change of direction for what we've seen in the years following the Second Lebanon War. And it is, I think, fair to argue that it shows a kind of loss of Israeli deterrence. That said, if it were in fact, again, as you just reported, Arielle, a Palestinian faction on Hezbollah, it at least is not an escalation in that sense. And Hezbollah at least wants to keep its distance and ascending a signal that it doesn't want to get directly involved. Of course, from Israel's perspective, the next question is, what happens to these Palestinian groups? Does Hezbollah or other actors in Lebanon, do they take action against them to try to restrain them? And again, it doesn't change the wider trend, which we've been talking about, that this border that was always tense, but still always quiet, is not tense anymore and leads to the kind of scenario that Sarita Havi was describing, where the northern border gradually, without any of us really paying too much attention, starts to look more like the southern border and starts to lead to the sense of instability and a kind of erosion, maybe a gradual one and maybe not a dramatic one, but still a kind of erosion in Israel's security and Israel's position. And again, to your persistent but correctly persistent questions, where is that red line? Is this a kind of new normal that the Israeli public is going to be willing to tolerate or not? And I think it's not an easy question. And that does require a follow-up of source, but this one with you, Pia, we have seen Hezbollah becoming more and more confident in their position and their ability to do so. Where are the limits for them? How far do they think they can go without provoking a response from Israel? Well, they are definitely trying out now to see how far they can go without a significant response from Israel. We have seen that also with these two tents where reportedly they will withdraw one of them. We've seen increased presence of Hezbollah operatives also operating along their border. We've seen clashes during the renewal of the Israeli border fence there. So this has not been a quiet border again in recent weeks and months. So we have seen also Hezbollah testing the waters, especially with these two tents. Then, as Jonathan Regev mentioned, that Hezbollah affiliate that came into Israel to place a bomb in an attempted attack that did not succeed. So we saw that Hezbollah has been more and more active on the Israeli border or also within Israel. But if this indeed turns out to be a Palestinian faction, that would also not be surprising at all. The Palestinian factions have been trying to tie together the fronts, whether it be Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, or also Palestinian factions in Lebanon and in Syria. Just in fact, only in May. Hamas leaders met with the Iranian president in Syria to really speak about a united response to Israel and to things that are going on against the Palestinians, also especially now after that major operation in Genine. The Palestinian factions have, of course, announced retaliation. And we've also just heard Nasrallah only a couple of weeks ago, also in a major speech, talking about the fact that Hezbollah is, of course, standing on the side of the Palestinians and that there would be the possibility of also a major united response. So if it would be a Palestinian faction that would not be disconnected from Hezbollah, because as we already spoke about, Hezbollah is involved in everything that is going on, especially in southern Lebanon. But it would not be at all surprising if that we will see now an even more tightening of the fronts together also between Hezbollah and the Palestinians, Ariel. This actually does bring us onto the question of deterrence itself. We've been talking about Israel is losing its deterrence effect on Hezbollah and on some of these Palestinian factions in the north. The question is, if Hezbollah isn't actively joining them yet, they're at least providing a shield. They're allowing them to do so. But the existence of Hezbollah is that acting as a deterrence on Israel's ability to stop these Palestinian factions. You know exactly where I wanted to go. We said before that this question of whether the Israeli public will tolerate a kind of scenario along the northern border, which looks a little bit more similar to the stereo in the Gaza Strip, that it's a tough question. And it may sound strange. Why would the public be willing to tolerate something like that? And the answer is because of the alternative. I mean, if the alternative is an all out war with an organization like Hezbollah, given the firepower that Hezbollah has, something that could potentially be a multiple in terms of its scale and its scope of what we saw in 2006, that's a very, very heavy price. And I'm not saying the public wouldn't ultimately get there and that the political and security establishment wouldn't ultimately get there. Maybe even get there sooner rather than later. It obviously depends on how things develop. But I think it's not automatic and I think it's not an easy call to make. And in that sense, you're right, Arielle, the prominence of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the development of its arsenal. And I think we have to say in the background, the development of the Iranian nuclear program in this sense do act as a kind of deterrent for Israel. But I think it's important to note that the opposite is also true, right? And Hezbollah famously said after the 2006 war, if he had known beforehand what he knew afterwards, he might not have embarked on that kind of war. We know Lebanon has the third worst economic crash since the mid-19th century. And that's not just me sitting here in the studio at the Jaffa Port saying that, that's the World Bank saying that, right? And the position of the country is so dire. And Hezbollah has been attacked from within Lebanon, of course, has always been attacked from within Lebanon, but given the political situation, economic situation even more so. So it's not an easy decision for them to try to push this too far. So again, I think there are restraints on both sides. But certainly Hezbollah, as Pia was saying, as our other guests I'm saying, as we've all been saying, has been testing those restraints and has been willing to take on some risks that may over the long term not prove to have been a wise set of risks for them to take on. But again, it has to be said up until this point, they've been able to put it bluntly to get away with it. And I'll briefly follow up with that as well, because you mentioned the economic and social situation in Lebanon right now. The question is, is that making it more difficult or is that making it more certain? Because generally when you have an economically, an economic disaster and social instability, a war is the perfect way for a regime to tie everything together. That's what I'm most interested in hearing from Hezbollah experts, from Lebanon experts. Over the course of the next day, or God forbid the next few days, what is the impact of that on Lebanon? And you're right, what's the set of incentives on Hezbollah given the economic crisis in Lebanon? What is Hezbollah trying to achieve in terms of its public opinion, in terms of its soft power by doing this? Because that might be the real goal, to show that it's part of the resistance, part of fighting Israel. But as Jonathan Regev said, without really paying a price for doing that because of the deterrence and the potential and the cost that Israel would have to bear in really taking serious action. That's actually a great part to bring Jonathan Regev back into the discussion hour at Defense Correspondent Jonathan Regev. I want to ask you as well, are there any special instructions from the military or the government for the people living in the North? And if they're not out yet, what would those instructions tend to be under these circumstances? At least for now, the answer is no, there are no special instructions, their routine is normal. Let's remember we're at the beginning of July, schools are out, meaning many, many tourists are flocking to the plenty of tourist attractions in the North. That is something that clearly has to be taken into consideration for whoever makes the decisions here in Israel. For the moment, there are no special instructions. This is at least for now. If things escalate, of course, it might be a different story. Jonathan, I have another question for you as well. Ultimately, is there an obvious way at this point that we might know in the next few hours for both sides to back down from this without immediate escalation? Yes, I mean, say that now if there really was a rocket fire towards Israel and Israel instead of firing 15 artillery cannons back into Lebanon, we'll fire five of them and the other side will not do anything. That perhaps will show that this may be over, but the potential for escalation is clearly there. Whether it was Hezbollah that really sent the rockets or whether it was some kind of a Palestinian faction, the potential for escalation clearly exists. The Middle East in general and Lebanon was Hezbollah in particular, they're very difficult to understand and to perhaps think what will be the next step. You don't really know. As was mentioned here in the studio, Hezbollah is now willing to take a little more risks, but Hezbollah remembers very well and as was mentioned in the studio, Hassan Nasrallah said it himself in 2006. If I knew in advance that this would be the response, this is some kind of an endeavor that I would not have gotten into. So Hezbollah, I believe, is trying to do what the chief of staff said a few weeks ago, what I previously reported, is trying to challenge Israel, but in ways that will not drag the area completely into a full-on war. I think Hassan Nasrallah knows very well that if a mortar or even three mortars are fired towards the border area, this is something that will require Israel to some kind of a response, but a low response, a soft response, clearly not something very big. I think that Israel also knows that firing 15 artillery cannons into an open area in southern Lebanon, that perhaps will bring some kind of a response from the other side, but not a full-on war. Everything I said here makes sense and it's rational. Can we really rely on rational when we're speaking of the Middle East, when we're speaking of Hezbollah? I'm not so sure. And I know that you very recently did a tour of the north of the shelters and the fortification for the civilian populations in the area that are under the constant threat of Hezbollah's rocket artillery. What sort of findings did you see? Is the north ready? No, absolutely not. The Israeli rule, the Israeli law dictates from the early 90s after the first Gulf War, means that every building that was built in Israel since the early 90s needs to have that protected room inside Mamad as it is called here. And I think we've already seen in hundreds of cases how this protected room in the house saves lives because you can quickly run to it in case of a rocket and it's fortified and it saves lives. All this is true for homes built after the early 90s in the past 32, 33 years. The homes that were built earlier than that, they still have the old style of shelters many times under the building in places in the north. For example, in Shlomi, where I did that inspection, Shlomi lies about a quarter of a mile away from the border fence. If a rocket is sent to Shlomi, there will be no time for people to run to shelters, to underground shelters. They need those protected rooms in their homes for the moment. They do not exist in about half the homes built in northern Israel, the older homes built previously to the early 90s. So I think as far as shelters, it is clear that northern Israel is not exactly ready and war with Hezbollah will not only include the far north of Israel, not only border communities, but also Haifa, also further south. A lot of the communities in the north and not only there require further shelters. Thank you very much, Jonathan, for explaining just what's going on over there and what Israel's state of readiness is before we go on a very short break and then continue our coverage immediately afterwards at one o'clock. We'll just give you a quick recap. To remind you, the IDF has confirmed that a rocket was fired into Israel from the northern border. It is unknown right now whether or not it was from Hezbollah or from one of the various Palestinian factions in the north. There are some sources saying that it is very likely to have been a Palestinian faction in response to the raid that just happened in Janine. But again, the situation is still very delicate and it's part of a destabilizing situation along Israel's northern border and constant provocations that have been attributed to the Hezbollah terror organization as well. We're going on break now as we are just about out of time. But when we get back at one o'clock, updates on this story and the security situation.


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The agency will support the government of Nepal in enhancing the safety of public places in areas affected by the recent earthquakes. This will include assisting Nepal in testing the integrity of critical buildings such as hospitals, schools and historical attractions using non-destructive testing techniques. This is another example of the agency's ability to respond quickly to member states' needs.


Well, I think our last speaker today really needs no introduction to most of you. You already know all about his presidential campaigns and his time as member of Congress. I would just throw this out. When I think back on the political career of Ron Paul, I think his two great accomplishments are this. One, the Giuliani moment, bringing the issue of war and peace back to the forefront and reclaiming it not as an issue somehow of the left. There's nothing more important than war and peace. And I think for that alone, there's a huge debt of gratitude. The second thing he did was he took what used to be a boring, wonkish, backburner issue known as monetary policy, and he brought it to the forefront. And now, thousands, if not millions of Americans because of Ron Paul are aware of the Fed and the great evil of our time, central banking. In addition to that, he found some time to apparently deliver a few babies along the road. Dr. Ron Paul. Thank you very much, everybody. So I would like to start off by talking about the subject. And the subject, of course, is secession and nullification, the breaking up of government. And the good news is, it's going to happen. It's happening. And it's not going to be because there will be enough people in the US Congress to legislate it. It won't happen. It will be de facto. You'll have a gold standard when the paper standard fails and we're getting awfully close to that. And people will have to resort to taking care of themselves. So when conditions break down, there's going to be an alternative. And I think that's what we're witnessing. I think the 20th century has been a fantastic century to prove so many things that went badly. For instance, Nazism and communism and fascism, total failure. I mean, who's going to get up and talk and say, OK, let's start a communist system? Well, they could have talked to Mises in 1912. He'd have told him it wasn't going to work anyway. But they tried it out. They had to experiment with it. And they killed millions of people.  And the evidence is out there. So this to me is, we've seen this happen to me. This is very, very good news. At the same time, what we're currently witnessing is the failure of Keynesian interventionist planned economies associated with the Federal Reserve System. And that, too, will end. So I think we live in an age which I consider an end of an era, an end of an era that has made all these trials and tribulations. And I see it historically over a longer period of time. Because I think tyranny has been around a long time. A lot of times when they will criticize me or people like you who believe in liberty, you want to go back to the dark ages. They want to regress. And it's exactly the opposite. The people who object to what we believe in want to go back to the dark ages of tyranny and huge government and tyrants and kings and pharaohs and people who want to control our lives. And that is, I think, that's over and done with. And today we see so many non-government entities that have gained control. One example I see today that I think is so dramatic. We have now the biggest concern of the whole world is ISIS. Well, where do they live? What country are they from? Do they own the Soviet empire now or what? Well, they got a hunk of land over there.  And we have to do whatever is necessary. And here, ISIS is essentially located around that area of Iraq and Syria. And they have a few thousand people involved. And they are ruthless and terrible, terrible people. But at the same time, if you look at around that area, you have nuclear weapons all over the place. The Russians have nuclear weapons. The United States, Israel has nuclear weapons. Pakistan, India, all these nuclear weapons. And they're totally helpless in dealing with this. And I think this is telling us that the old-fashioned organization of the government and the state is very, very weak and that what has gained strength is the countries and the movements that are dealing with ideas and getting people to support things. Unfortunately, ISIS is getting support from a lot of people. And they couldn't exist without the support of the local people. But it also means that they have had a tremendous impact without first becoming a huge government. And I think this is a sign of the times. And we're going to see this continue because the economic policies are going to fail. We're in the middle of that. And of course, the foreign policy is failing too. Right now, United States policy has decided, yes, we have to get them. We have to get these guys. And we have to have this war on terrorism. But we don't want to get hurt. And somebody will get other people. That's the change in policy. Bush was willing to send hundreds of thousands of people over there and kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people to solve this problem. It was a total failure. So now, well, we'll use other people. They have to cooperate and participate. I predict that that policy is not going to work. And lest we can combat the ideology that motivates the radicals, the ISIS, there can't be a victory.  And Jeff mentioned about the Giuliani moment. And I'll tell you what, as the years have gone on, to me personally, it becomes more and more significant of trying to understand this. Because right now, we've had this debate in the public. And I was in the middle of some of that about what was going on in France and the individuals that were killed. And all of a sudden, they're trying to figure out why, why, why? Well, it can't be foreign policy. And it's crucial that it's not foreign policy because it blows their whole cover for everything they've done for maybe 20 or 30 years in the Middle East, if not longer.  That has to be proven as an absolute lie or we cannot win this fight. And the people involved in this are quite numerous and there's a lot at stake. One of the stories, a historic moment, too, that brought this to light and helped me to understand this was the history of Pol Pot, how he came into power. Pol Pot, most everybody knows, he was a bad guy and he eventually had control of Cambodia and he was ruthless and killed a lot of people. And our policy had a lot to do with that, having that happen. So that people turn around like they do when we make our statements about blowback. They say, well, that means that you're blaming America on what Pol Pot did. No, that is not the case. What happened there was when we had a president elected in 1968 to stop the Vietnam War, he was less than ethical in what he pursued right afterwards because if you think about it, after Nixon was elected 35,000 Americans were still killed. But he immediately went into a war against Cambodia and dropped 500,000 tons of bomb. It was the equivalent of five Hiroshima-type bombs. Hundreds of thousands of Cambodians were killed. Pol Pot existed before that and he was because he was unhappy with his government. Probably he was first to thug and probably a communist but he was there. But guess what happened? After we did that with our bombs and killed so many people, it unified the people. His 2,000-man army rather quickly became 250,000 troops he took over the country. So our policies have a lot to do with it. It didn't create Pol Pot, but our policies seem to aggravate it and make it a lot worse and yet we still lose the argument so often on national television that blowback means that you blame America to pass that off. But that to me is the whole issue is if they, if they lose that argument, they lose all their justification for being in the Middle East and that would be a real disaster for them. But the Pol Pot I think is a good story to remember to point out how our stuff backfires on us and a lot of people get killed. What about what happened in Iraq? I mean, there's a, even before 03 when we started the war, the official war, it was admitted by Madeleine Albright. There were 500,000 Iraqis died because of our policy. And to believe that we have a policy like that and the Secretary of State admits it and has no bearing on the way those people look at us and that some people might become angry enough to wanna kill us. To ignore that is putting a head in the sand and I think it's such an important issue to understand. But here we went into Iraq and since then probably even after 03, 700,000 Iraqis were killed. And the whole purpose, well it's hard to figure out what their purpose was.  What did we do? We got rid of Saddam Hussein. He's a bad guy according to many standards. But Saddam Hussein hated the al-Qaeda and he didn't like the Iranians. So what do we do? We go in, we kill him and we remake Iraq. And guess what? We essentially have turned it over to Iran. They have total control of this. So now chaos has come back to the country. They're begging and pleading for us to send in more troops. ISIS has control of a third of Iraq up north and the ISIS would just as soon do what they did what we want done and that is get rid of Assad. So it's so much ridiculous chaos that we have created there. And it comes down to one thing. Decision that we as a people have to make on whether or not a foreign policy of interventionism, getting involved in the internal affairs of other nations or getting involved in entangling alliances and pursuing and believing in preemptive war. That is the issue. And I would say the founders gave us good advice. Stay out of the internal affairs of all nations and stay out of entangling alliances. And that would mean that our policy today as soon as possible would be to bring all our troops home. The global war on terrorism is a hot issue because if you're not super for it then you're un-American. But the global war on terrorism has been going on for a good while now. And we find out that just recently there's a turnover in leadership in Saudi Arabia. And those are our best friends over there. And yet they're the ones who practice Wahhabism and the Shia laws. They have performed many, many more beheadings in Saudi Arabia than the ISIS do. But you never hear anything of it. Now with the death of the king we're talking about, isn't it wonderful he was our best friend? He was modern. He moved the country in the right direction. And nobody asks one thing about human rights. You know, we're the decision makers about who practices human rights or not. So we fail to notice, at least not many people talk about it. Then when it came to 9-11 and 15 out of the 19 hijackers where'd they come from? From Saudi Arabia. And we're supposed to believe this. Unfortunately, all this mass depends on the propagandists. And that's where it's very, very tough. But it's also the place where we're making inroads because there's more than three major networks on television. There's a lot of people outside of the three majors that are available, whether it's the internet or whatever, that a lot of people are waking up, especially the young people of this country, said, it's enough of this killing. It's time we change our foreign policy. One place where we've had a tough argument has been with the Ukraine. Because I criticize our position there, participating in the coup that took place, they throw out the accusation, oh, Ron Paul, and those who believe this way, that you are supporters of Putin. You're defending Putin and everything he ever did from 50 years ago, which is absolutely not true. But if we don't look at the truth, then we fail to understand what's happening. But the one of the most remarkable phone conversations overheard, and I'm sure the NSA had the phone conversation, but you can be sure they didn't turn it over to us. And that was the phone conversation between Victoria Nugent and also Jeffrey Pyatt. And they had this conversation about how they were planning the coup, who they were going to put in place. It was so blatant. And then they lie through their teeth every day and say, oh, we had nothing to do with it. It was all the Russians fault, and they did this, and hey, they did that. And yet we have an Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, along with the ambassador to Ukraine, talking on the telephone, planning the coup. And I don't think it made too many major network programs on television. It just isn't there. And they're still in those positions. They're still important people in administration. But this is just a further problem that we have to sort out this truth so that we can get enough people in this country to say, let's just stay out of these messes. But the propaganda is build up. You have to hate the enemy because that is the only way you can get young people to fight or countries to support war is you have to dehumanize the enemy. And that is one of the biggest efforts that is done by governments, all governments, especially our government, we have to hate those individuals in order to go out and travel, fly 6,000 miles away and start bombing people that never attacked us and we have never seen bomb and kill as many as we can. So I have argued the case that there's no reason why we can't move in a better direction. The failure of the economic system, the failure of the foreign policy, why can't civilization advance? Advance in the understanding of peace. You say, well, war, there's gonna be wars and rumors or wars forever and ever and that's the way it's been. But why is it that it has to be that way? I mean the history of freedom, but matter of fact, recorded history isn't all that old. And if you look at the history of freedom, it's just hundreds of years old and we have our ups and downs, but generally it's better understood now than it was thousands of years ago. So there's this effort to understand and move in this direction, but so many people don't quite understand the importance of what we do. So I believe if you took technology and instead of using it to advance the weapons of war, take technology and advance the ability to promote peace and understanding, that is what we really need. And I think the tools are there. I think the internet and the technology is there is to spread a different message. You say, not still impossible, there's always gonna be mean, nasty people and I agree, there always will be and there's always gonna be criminals and a lot of violence. So I still think that technology made great progress, especially in the last couple hundred years, talking to my dad when I was a small person, my dad delivered milk and a horse and buggy. He remembers the first automobile and the first airplane. And that's just a short while ago and there was a time when maybe 50 years before he was born, if somebody would said, we're gonna be driving these cars and we're gonna be flying these airplanes and we're gonna land on the moon, there's no way. The technology came along and unfortunately the technology was so often used to advance the way of killing people. So yes, we had airplanes, but airplanes also were used to drop bombs on people. So it was being used in the wrong manner. But I just think that that period of time can end, that we can change that, that we can change the human condition where we think about peace. For that reason, I've been fascinated with looking at some of the stories about the conflict between war and peace when it comes to the enemies fighting each other. And of course, most of us have heard and know the story about the Christmas, the Christmas truce in World War I. At the beginning of World War I, it broke out and the German soldiers and the British soldiers got together. And they had no stomach for all this. They started singing Christmas carols and called it truce and some places it lasted several days. They exchanged presents and Christmas trees. And the tragedy was that after several days, the authorities came and said, you better get back to killing. And they were forced to back into killing. But the natural tendency was for the soldiers not to fight. And I remember so clearly my grandmother telling me who was from, the family was from Germany. And I was less than 10 because I was 10 when the war was over. I went to go and ask her, why is this happening? You have me saying prayers for my aunts that live in Germany that they survive at the same time we have a cousin in prison, in Germany, you know? And she says, Ronnie, she says, you know what it is? She says, the people don't want war. It's the governments that want war. And I think the story about the Christmas truce in World War I, that was the beginning of World War I, but there's another story that I came across. I found fascinating. And this is a story in World War II. It was at the end. It was after D-Day. And an American plane had been shot down, but it was in a place where they were really in a life and death struggle with some Germans. The Americans were gaining strength. But the pilot who was flying at a Jack Teller, he was a captain. And he always for some reason took a trumpet with him. And he just loved the trumpet. And so he had that trumpet with him. And they were in this situation where they were in the battle, but they had killed off most of the snipers, the German snipers. But there was one left. And he was in a dilemma because what he did at the time when things were quieter, he played his trumpet. So he got his trumpet up. But his commander came and said, don't play it. This is a bad set of circumstances. We have a sniper out there, in no sense, encouraging him to come and shoot us. So the captain said, well, he says, I have a suspicion that that guy out there is probably lonely and scared.  And lo and behold, something happened when he started playing that trumpet. Now I have a little clip of the song that Teller played during that time. Can we hear that little playing? I love trumpets. And these circumstances were very special and different. And the trumpet player played that. And there was no more shooting. And the next day, the German sniper walked into the American camp and surrendered. And they got him prepared to take him off to a prisoner of war camp in England. And he said, well, before I go, can I meet the person that played the trumpet? And so they took him over and they shook hands. And our American captain says, I just shook hands with the enemy.  And he said that he was scared to death. And he says, I heard that song. And it made me think about my fiance, my mother and father. And he says, I could not shoot another shot. And I just think that is remarkable. I just think that there's no reason why we can't have more of that getting to the people who have to do the killing and reject the notion and the propaganda of our governments. And that would mean that we have to take the power and authority away from the government to wage war. That's where the problem is. The only country in the world today that I think even comes slightly close to this because they don't have an executive branch of government or the Swiss. They can't go to war like this. And they haven't been in war in a couple of hundred years. So we need to take the authority away from the government. Even the law that prohibits them from going to war like we have. You can't go to war unless the people support the war. It doesn't work. So someday what we need to do, and if that doesn't work, we need to build up enough enthusiasm and determination and belief that those individuals who are required or drafted or bribed into going off and fighting the senseless war that they just refuse to go. You know, what's interesting about Lily Marlene, Marlene, the song was, there was a sort of controversy with the Germans. Ramo loved it. And Garibals, you know, he looked at it and allowed it to play. And then he thought it was too soft. It wasn't militant enough. So he made them quit using it. And the German soldiers rebelled. They wanted to hear that song. Everybody loved that song. It must have given them some peace. So we put back on the radio the German soldiers could hear the song and they could play it. But the interesting thing is that the Americans love the song too. So yes, it's the government. It's not the people. It's not the soldiers that make the war. It's the governments that do. So there's so much harm and injury in this country created by this propaganda by people who think that war is the answers. And I keep trying to figure out, we do know that many on our side doing the things we don't want them to do, I believe there's some evil motivation among some. But I also think there's a lot of ignorance and a lot of them fall for the propaganda. Young people who go, because I've been there. When I was drafted, you know, in the 60s, you know, I didn't like what was going on, but it wasn't at the point where I knew enough and had enough confidence to take on the US government and maybe go to prison. So it's a struggle. That's the reason why a few individuals can't do it. You have to have a whole understanding by a people that we reject the notion of war. And I think this is what probably has helped Switzerland and it's not like they lived in a perfectly safe area. I mean, the mountains isn't what protected them. It was a lot more to it and it was a notion that they weren't going to get involved in other people's affairs. But, you know, our concern, of course, is based on our concept of liberty. I'm convinced that we can solve so many of our problems whether they're economics or foreign policy by just a better understanding of liberty. I believe our founders understood this and that it's an individual thing. It's not a collective thing. And that's where I am so hopeful. I speak to a lot of young people groups at a lot of college campuses and there's a lot of enthusiasm whether it's the Federal Reserve or whether it's non-interventionist foreign policy. So it's out there. But if they don't hear that there's enough support, of course they won't feel strong enough to resist. But people must understand exactly what it is. And liberty is something governments can't give us. It comes from our creator, it comes in a natural way. And everybody has to be treated the same. And you say, well, is that mean you believe in perfect equality? No, perfect and equal justice under law. And you don't deal with people as a collective. You don't reward people or punish people because they belong to a group. There's only one group that I'm interested in that is you as an individual to have your rights protected and you have the responsibility of taking care of yourself and have the right to keep the fruits of your labor. That's what we need. You know, Mises was quite concerned about the future of the country and he had a lot of concerns and not exactly the most optimistic person. He said we were moving rapidly in the wrong direction. Socialism was very bad but interventionism would lead to fascism. So he had a lot of concerns but he also had some good advice. He says that for the flowering of the human spirit to be achieved, what you first have to have are individuals who are willing to understand and write and study ideas and theories and come up with them and write them down. Be the intellectual. Intellectual like Tom Woods who knows how to write this stuff down. You know, you have to have these ideas. You have to have organizations like the Mises Institute like what Lou's been doing for many, many decades and the work Jeff has done and so many others here in the audience. Those ideas have to be put down there but eventually what you need and I put myself more in this category is take these ideas and explain them, understand them first and then explain them and he uses the word palatable because these ideas have to be made palatable to the American people, all the people because if it's a fancy theory and it's hard to understand, it's not gonna do as much good so eventually you have a large number of people making them palatable. Everybody has a responsibility for that is to know and understand and spread a message. Just by being here means you're interested in spreading a message and that's certainly what Lou's been working so hard on and getting professors to learn about this and talk to their students. So this is where the progress has been made and that is the area where I'm the most optimistic and also it was Samuel Adams who said that don't worry about the majority. Well, I'm concerned about the majority but I know what he means that you need the minority an irate minority who's determined to pursue these views but eventually you have to have 51% but the people who lead are probably gonna be 6, 7, 8%. That's the small number of people that are revolution but you have to have an endorsement by the people and that's why you have to sell these ideas and 51% become pretty important. So it is said that no government exists without that so no matter how terrible the dictators are they eventually get thrown out if the people don't endorse it as long as they believe I'm going to get taken care of and socialism is good because they're gonna give me food and jobs and all this that the system continues but if you don't have the 51% it doesn't exist. So you need the theoreticians, you need the people who spread the message, you need to get people excited about the issues and that's how we change things and a lot of times today we talk a lot about percentages and we know that there's 1% out there that's caused all the trouble, the 99 and the 1%. And that is an important percentage to be concerned about too because the 1% those who live off us, those who are living in the military industrial complex and they're living off the government and they control the government, they have control of the Federal Reserve and the banking system. That 1% need to be called upon and we need to get rid of that by getting rid of the power of government to take care of that part of the 1%. But the other part we shouldn't put them together that's the people who are wealthy because we make them wealthy because we buy their products because they give us a good product and they make a lot of money. Making a lot of money should be an incentive it shouldn't be something you penalize and that's the one problem we have with the far left they want to penalize it but they can't separate these two. Everybody is thrown together and they don't ask the question well how did you earn your money? Well, what we do is if you had a free society and limited government there wouldn't be anybody living off anybody else. The government would be so limited they would not have this power to redistribute wealth and control the whole system. And yet it's coming to an end the Fed is going to end there's going to be a de facto succession movement going on the states are going to refuse to listen to some of the laws we've seen tremendous success already with states saying to the federal government we're not going to listen to you anymore about the drug laws and they're getting out of it and I think that American people are waking up to that and so as far as I'm concerned the more the more the merrier but freedom to me is the answer and if you understand what liberty is all about like I mentioned before liberty should bring us all together bring it should bring us together it should bring it should solve the problem of conflict between races and class and religions and everything else but if you understand liberty it means everybody should come together to defend liberty and then understand that what you do with your liberty and what you do with your liberty may be 100% different in religion we understand it we understand that some people have different views and as long as they're not hurting other people and some refuse to even believe in religion well in a society that respects liberty people still come together and fight for the cause of liberty and of course that means that it would be a society that would be much peaceful within but it would also be a society that would have a different foreign policy and a different foreign policy a different type of government you wouldn't permit governments to have all this power and authority over other people so I rather am pretty high on the issue of liberty and I'm pretty low on the idea of government so the problem in just so many things that I see and I also believe that if the people wake up not only would we have a more prosperous economy but we would have a happier people and we certainly would have a lot less war thank you very much glad to be with you today