Welcome to our lecture series Math 12-10 Calculus 1 for students at Southern Utah University. Let me quickly introduce myself. My name is Dr. Andrew Misseldine and I will be your professor for this course. Calculus 1 without me overselling it is probably going to be one of your favorite mathematics courses you're ever going to take and why is that? Well, there's probably two types of students out there and you're one of them, I imagine. First, there's some people just love everything mathematical and scientific and analytical and so you just gobble this stuff up and Calculus is going to be more of that delicious logical candy for you. From other people, other students might be a little bit more skeptical like, when am I ever going to use math? We learn all these hard things, but when am I ever going to use it? Let me talk to that group of students just for a moment. I like to compare Calculus to the Karate Kid movies. That is the original ones from the 80s. I grew up watching these movies. I love them a ton, the kicking and the punching and things like that. So really quick synopsis for those who are unfamiliar with the movie. There's a teenage boy, Daniel LaRusso, who moves to a new town. He's having a hard time fitting in. There's a girl he likes, but it turns out there's another guy who likes the same girl. And who belongs to a karate dojo known as the Cobra Kai. And so in the rivalry, the Cobra Kai have a bad habit of kicking Daniel's butt all the time.  He takes him under his wing and he promises he'll teach him karate so that he doesn't have to get beat up all the time. Well, when Daniel starts going to Mr. Miyagi's house to learn karate, Mr. Miyagi is never there. He leaves notes and tells Daniel that he has all these chores to do. Like some of the things Daniel has to do is he has to wax all of Mr. Miyagi's cars, which he has a lot of classic cars. He has to paint Mr. Miyagi's fence. He has to sand Mr. Miyagi's deck and just to name a few of these chores he has to do. And this goes on and on and on for days and days and days. And so after a while, Daniel just gets extremely, extremely frustrated with Mr. Miyagi. He's like, why am I doing all these chores for you, right? I thought you were going to teach me karate. And so what then Mr. Miyagi does for Daniel is he changes the context. Daniel believed he was doing all these chores when, in reality, Mr. Miyagi was having him practice muscle memory, various karate moves like lifting up his arm and waxing the car, just to name a few examples. And so Mr. Miyagi shows that all these muscle motions that Daniel's been doing over and over these repetitive motions when, in the right context, are defensive karate techniques, which is the first step to learning karate, have to defend yourself. You can't go on the offensive if you can't protect yourself. And so this was a huge paradigm shift for Daniel, who you learned, oh, I was doing all this hard work, but that's how you could go to karate. Why do I share this story? Well, it's a great movie. You should check it out sometime. But this is exactly how many of us have felt in previous mathematics classes, like maybe pre-calculus or college algebra or high school algebra. We learn all of these algebraic tricks, and we practice them over and over and over, and they get repetitive, and they get tiresome, and we get fatigued from it. But like Daniel, we've been learning how to paint the fence and wax the car, but we were like, I want to learn karate. The good news is I'm going to be Mr. Miyagi. And in calculus one, we finally get to take those algebraic skills you've been rehearsing probably for years and apply them in the right context to solve some very useful real life problems. Calculus is sort of like the first step in approaching many, many mathematical problems we see in science, physics, chemistry, engineering, just to name a few things there. All right. And so because of that, those algebraic skills we've practiced in pre-calculus settings are really important. It's really the start of where we're going to do calculus. So the first chapter in our lecture series is going to be dedicated just to reviewing topics in pre-calculus, that is college algebra and trigonometry. And depending on you as the student will depend on how much review is actually necessary. Some of you came fresh out of college algebra, fresh out of trigonometry, and you're good to go. You have all these skills mastered, and for which the homework is just going to feel like busy work, just practicing things you already know. Many of you, on the other hand, maybe it's been a while since you've taken a pre-calculus class. Some of you haven't taken it since high school, which could be years. Some of them could be decades. It depends on the student, right? And that's OK. There's no judgment there. But some of us might be a little bit more atrophied in our algebra skills because it's been semesters or years or a long, long time. Even those who freshly came out of college algebra, maybe that was a hard class. And maybe we just need more practice anyways. And then with trigonometry, some high schools don't even teach trigonometry. And so some of you are going to thrown into this class with really no trigonometric background whatsoever. And so because of the sort of gap, huge gap for many of you in terms of prerequisites for this course, we're going to spend the first two weeks of our series learning, well, not learning, but reviewing college algebra and trigonometric things, reviewing all these topics. And so let me show you our first lecture page here. You're going to see several videos. And this is just the first lecture. You will go through several lectures, of course, throughout this series. But we see a couple of lectures here because some of us might not need as much practice as other. I have labeled some of the lecture videos differently.  This title and description is to help you with your notes also if you need a return to the videos in the future. So in this first chapter, chapter one on this review of pre-calculus, some of the videos I've labeled as optional. Because again, if you have taken college algebra and trigonometry, which if you got into this course you should have, because that's prerequisite. You've learned all of this stuff before. It really comes down to how much of a review do you actually need to do this class. It's hard to say, I don't actually know it, that that's sort of an individual thing for you. And so there are some things that I think are really essential that even if you're like the world expert on this, we probably should still review it. Those ones, you won't see any label there. There are some other topics which I think are worth reviewing, but many of us might not need a detailed review, in which case I'm labeling those as optional videos. So if you do feel like you have a stronger background in algebra, then by all means, you can skip the optional videos, not a big deal. I would still encourage you to watch the ones that are not labeled optional. Because again, some of them are optional, some of them are not. And then kind of go try to gauge yourself from there.  Like, oh, I don't remember how to do this. And that's okay for chapter one. Because like I said, chapter one, it's just gonna be a review of functions and trigonometry. When we get into chapter two and beyond, when we actually learn things that are new, things you shouldn't have seen before because they're properly calculus subjects, then I would encourage us to watch all of the videos in the order they're presented on Canvas before we begin the homework. But I will allow us to deviate from that strategy for this review chapter, which is chapter one. I should also mention that on every lecture, there's a link to lecture notes, the notes I use in a traditional face-to-face lecture, for which you can download those, read through these on your own if you would like to. If you want a very abbreviated run-through through the lectures, you could just read the lecture notes and get all the same stuff you get from the video as well. Now, I should also mention that the videos that we're gonna see in chapter one, were originally developed for my college algebra, math 1050 and trigonometry math 1060 courses. That's okay, I mean, the math didn't change as we review those things, but if you ever hear anything mentioned like, this is math 1050, well, that's just because the video was reused right there. And this is actually an advantage to us because while I've linked all of these videos on our lecture pages for your review, like I said, this is if you need sort of like the average review of materials. If you need a more in-depth review, which might be possible, that's not a big deal, no problem there whatsoever. If you need a little bit more review than what these videos are offering, then click the on-screen links you can see in the YouTube videos, like the one you see on the screen right now, and you can link into the entire library for math 1050 and you can scroll by topic and find anything you need to review as we go, not just for this review chapter, but anytime in the future, like, oh, I don't remember how to factor a quadratic polynomial. You might be surprised that maybe that needs to come up. You can always go back to the trigonometry or the college algebra lecture videos and take a look at those whenever you need that just-in-time practice.


I'm proud of her. She's the only one. There's an answer to that. Sorry. We'll just get one yet with what you're writing. Let's wait. There you go. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. Good morning. Hi. Thank you for telling you to join us. We've been trying to solve all the problems, as a follow up. Maybe you'daret trouble The President is the usual great job, as you might expect. And, you know, when we had a lot of discussion in trade, I was telling the President that the first issue that the President is to raise in the plenary was the free trade rings and negotiations. So, obviously, this means a lot to him. Jim has been pulling this group of stuff like business people together to try to have a positive influence on all of this, and that's why they're here. So, with that point, I just turn it over to you for any kind of, as you'd like to make to me. Well, I'm delighted to see you all here today and to know that you view U.S. trade relationships with Canada seriously and as hopefully as I do, there at that meeting, as they said, I was a little surprised. There was a quite a demonstration of only a few hundred people opposed to free trade out on the lawn. And I was wondering about this, and then when I addressed the parliament and the galleries were full of really a packed house and came to our approval of the free trade, then I found out that the true balance came up where anything was free. But I was greatly encouraged that they really have that sentiment for us. So, I feel the same way. Prime Minister and I agreed that a free trade agreement would be a major opportunity to expand trade and provide benefits for both American and Canadian consumers and businesses. The Canadians are concerned that while this negotiation is their most important economic issue, some in our country they feel are paying enough attention to it. But it's been a top priority for this administration for some time. And since Canada is our largest trading partner, the U.S.-Canada trade relationship is the biggest in the world, more than a quarter of all of our manufactured goods that are sold abroad or sold to Canada. And they purchase more U.S. exports than the European community or our next ten largest trading partners put together. Canadian-American free trade agreement I think would mean higher levels of efficiency, productivity, and economic growth that will make both Canada and the U.S. stronger and more competitive and trade relations with the rest of the world. And since such a free trade agreement also serves a model for the world and a demonstration of the benefits of cooperation to reduce trade restrictions and carriers, I think it will provide an alternative to policies of protectionism, which set the economic lifeblood of the nations. I'm being rather offensive lately, calling on my age to remind everybody that I'm really, really old enough to remember what the Snoop-Aulay tariff did. But the negotiations to remove the remaining impediments are difficult and they're complex. There are special problems and sensitivities on both sides that must be taken into account. But my conversations will only have me convinced that the will and determination are present on both sides. And I think we can arrive at a mutually beneficial agreement. I need your help carrying this simple but extremely important message to the people, and I hope that I can. I want to follow you. We need to show our Canadian friends that our business community is interested in helping us achieve this goal of a free trade area with Canada. As the negotiations intensify, this spring and summer will be lying on you for your advice. We were all very busy and I truly appreciate the time we're taking to serve the country in this important way. We're a shining example to the rest of the world. Now we wish the private sector in our country enters in and makes things happen about throwing everything over to bureaucracy. Thank you. The part of the Soviet Union, sir. Sorry to bother, Mr. President. Our Presidential Advisor's Committee on Prey. So we had a pretty good interview. Most everybody in chief executive offices are in a outstanding group that gives the government service to us on great issues of all. Forever. Thank you. Especially that crack right in there. That religious remark here. Whenever they come in, in a room, I always think it's like those famous words of the last supper. Anyone who wants to get in the picture, get on this side of the table. Clayton and Ed. I want to welcome you and all the members of my advisory committee on trade negotiations of the White House today. And I know, as you've been told, I was in Canada Sunday and Monday and I'm glad to have this opportunity to maybe give you a personal word, although I understand you've had a report on our trip there. You can tell by the reception that we've gotten the Canadian Parliament at a free trade agreement between Canada and the United States is an idea these times come. They were most enthusiastic about it. And I pledge to Prime Minister Mulroney and the people of Canada that we're going all out to make this visionary proposal a reality, not just for the prosperity and jobs it would create in both our countries, but as an example of all the world that free and fair trade is the way to go, not protectionism. I believe in an America that can meet the challenge of the 21st century. This means better educating our young people, better training our workers, protecting our intellectual property, reforming our antitrust laws and trade laws when necessary and pursuing multilateral trade negotiations, and yes, taking tough actions to open foreign markets that are closed to American exports. We have a comprehensive plan to deal with these issues and we believe we can achieve it. In fact, much has already been done as Clayton knows and has been seen that it gets done. And you've proved to be invaluable advisors, too blatant to me on the development and execution of our trade policy. Now you can get the lights on. Mr. President, are you considering rescinding your trade tariff restrictions against the Japanese or are you impressed by what they've done you call for free trade? We haven't had an opportunity yet to get together but we're going to be treating with that problem and I'm looking forward to a visit by the Prime Minister. Are you convinced you're heading for a showdown with him when he's here? Well, he has been most cooperative with us and I think he still has that same feeling about finding agreements that are fair in both sides. Do you like to avoid those tariffs as possible? Well, they go into effect April 17th. Are they going to go into effect these new restrictions? That's the way it sits now. Some decision is made on their part. Thank you, Mr. President. I can't go on and answer your questions. It's been a part of our time. Thank you very much.


Hello everyone, I'm Davina and this is Sharon. We're product development managers at the Open University and we're here today to talk to you a bit about the research that we've done before we started developing Moodle Mobile at the OE. So this is really the why we're doing the app but if you're interested in how we did the app Mark and Sam both did presentations this morning so you can take a look at their presentation slides. So just as a bit of background the Open University is the largest university in the UK. We have around 170,000 registered users or students and we have a really active VLE so we have over 180,000 registered users and around two million transactions every day. So it's pretty big and just as a base for that but our teaching model is very much at a distance so students learn independently and then they use the VLE to do activities and such. So the first question we really asked before actually investing any time or money into the app is do we need one? And the reason we ask that is because we actually already have a really good digital learning experience for our students. So this is an example of a module website or a course website that we currently use with students. This is actually the one I'm studying now and what happens is that the students will come to this as their main place to go and they'll go through week by week to see what reading materials they need to study, collaborative activities they need to do and any online tutorials they have to attend. I may just work way through that and that's available both through the website and it's also fully mobile responsive as well. So we give them a range of digital experiences here. So like I said we have the website, it's mobile responsive, if you've got an internet connection it works well across all devices but we also provide downloads for them where they can get alternative formats so they can get the learning materials in words, PDFs, ebooks, things like that. And on the odd occasion we supplement these with books as well. Oh just to mention we do currently already have the OU Anywhere app, the manager of which is down there. So that currently manages the downloads but we will be replacing that with mobile. So if all I did anything I did some desk research just to see what people's habits were with mobile devices generally and unsurprisingly you can probably tell over the last 10 years people kind of use their phones a lot. That's not surprising however what was interesting is when you actually look at what they're doing on their phones use of the internet or a browser on their mobile device sort of has doubled since 2011 so people generally use the internet on their phone for about an hour every day but with apps it's actually gone up to about three hours a day which is kind of a lot. So for us if we're going to be trying to encourage students to study on the go, engage with their materials more sort of stay connected with the university we probably want to be investing in that space in the app space. For the pure reason that it's easier for us to tap into behaviours they've already formed rather than trying to get them to build new habits. So again from my desk research, oh that's a little red bit. So from my desk research just a really brief summary of what people like and don't like about apps. What they seem to like about apps is that they're designed for your mobile devices they're really quick to access. You don't have to worry about your internet connection. What they don't seem to like is that it takes up loads of storage on your phone and you don't always have all the information you want because it's often a reduced version of a website. Storage one was really interesting and some of the user testing we did the younger students in particular with the smaller phones were really obsessive about it so it's something to bear in mind. Okay so I'm going to talk through now some of the research that we did before we invested and just to give you an idea of why we do that. We use a user-centred design process. You've probably seen a version of this from one of us before but we basically go through discover design, develop and release. So the upfront research was in the discover phase and then later on I'll give you a few insights from the user testing we did in the develop phase as well. Okay so the research we did up from well the first thing I did was go through all the feedback we'd had from students through our module website so we have a feedback mechanism on our module websites and all the reviews that people had left us from our current apps in the app stores as well. So this lives literally thousands of reports from students telling us what they liked what they didn't like and what they'd like to change so that was my first protocol in terms of the actual research of an industrial research. We then conducted some focus groups to help inform some evidence-based personas which are a key part of the user design process that we run. This wasn't specifically about the app but we had lots of really natural conversation with students who were saying oh it's really frustrating when I do this wouldn't an app be great for that so we actually collated a lot more data from that when we expected. We then worked with an external UX research company to conduct 10 in-depth user interviews with students who took us through their entire sort of student journey and they were able to articulate to us exactly where and why they would want to be using an app so that was fantastic for us so we got some really good insight from that. And so once we'd done all of that we sort of analysed it looked at the kind of key things that were coming out and we started to run workshops with students our student association reps and our tutors and we got them to prioritise the requirements for us and then also start actually sketching up what they would want the app to look like. The reason we did that is because it actually was fantastic for us to get a visual representation of their expectations which was actually more useful than the poster side of things. So from all that I think what we were able to drive is that the key issues that students were kind of explaining to us that we think an app might be useful when solving are that essentially they're really busy especially for open university students they often work full-time and they study part-time alongside it and so for them they've sometimes really struggled to get their study in so what they wanted was a mechanism to be able to use little bits of time for other day to whether it was just to plan do some admin maybe do some activity on the forums things like that just so that when they actually go and sit down and study they can focus on that rather than having to do all the other stuff. And then they also talk about wanting an alternative way of studying other than a computer so again a lot of them work full-time at desks they don't want to come home and work on a laptop so for them having an app is almost like the experience you'd get with a book. And they often talked about wanting a streamlined version of the website our website is very comprehensive so there can be a lot of information on a small screen so the app just delivers it in a much cleaner way which would be useful for them. And then something which we weren't expecting is that students often talked about feeling like they weren't on top of when things were meant to happen so what we're hoping will happen when we have the app is that because they have consistent offline access to their study plan and with all their key dates it'll be easier for them to actually plan time around their social lives the work life and things like that because at the moment they have to log on to the website to see that so that kind of disconnect wasn't working for them. But ultimately what they wanted from an Apple what we're hoping the Apple resolve is this feeling of isolation again because we're completely distanced our students often don't see each of us so they want this consistent tether with the university with the tutors and other students so what do they want? So from all of that these are the high priorities that our students were telling us that they wanted unsurprisingly access to their learning stuff which was a good sign so they basically wanted to be able to read stuff on the go watch videos do quizzes connect with do that activities things like that so that was kind of expected but a new one for us was actually because it was now being delivered through a mobile device they wanted to be able to listen to the content so they wanted the words to be spoken to them so whether it's in their car or whether they're commuting or something like that they wanted to be able to do that that doesn't exist in the app at the moment but it's something we'll probably look at in the future Students were also very clear that they wanted notifications so they wanted to be told things like reminders for tutorials that were coming up deadlines for assessments things like that but they're also very clear that they wanted to complete control over that so they really wanted to be able to turn them off more than anything and we had some great stories coming from some of our students as well about how they wanted quick access to their assessment grades so at the moment they have to log on to the internet to find out what the grades are when the marks have come in but they wanted quicker access to that so that was good some of the other stuff that they've been talking about which the students had much more polarized views on so we need to do more research to really understand what the requirements are but here are some of those the key one for us really is accessibility we have a really high percentage of a disabled students at VOU and obviously we've been new regulations and everything coming in that's a big one for us in user testing we found that the biggest drawbacks of the app so far were not being able to change font size particularly on apple devices and not being able to change font colors and things so again that's something we'll have to look at in the future but generally our expert accessibility has been really good for the app okay so I mentioned earlier that we did focus groups for the personas um well this is Luca he's one of the eight personas that we developed from that um and basically what we use him as the key primary persona for the app because he works full-time in a desk job and at the weekend he kind of works as a bus replacement driver so we use him because what we actually expect to happen is we don't expect the kind of core study patterns of our students to change because of the app so here you'll see that basically during the week he studies at his desk either before after work but at the weekends he'll actually print off all his stuff and take them with him because he doesn't have an internet connection what we're hoping will happen when students have the app is that they have more consistent connection with the university in between so he'll get a deadline reminder he'll get some forum notifications you know when he's got 20 minutes waiting for a bus at the weekend you know he won't have to go print everything off he can just read stuff that he's downloaded so it won't change his study necessarily it'll just complements it and it will be a much needed addition to help fit into his busy life so from all the research we did and from the user testing that we've done on the unbranded beta version that we've been working on so far we've decided to focus on free things for our first launch so we're just going to focus on the study planner getting all our learning content working really well in the app and downloads our user testing found that download management was something which users weren't quite comfortable with in the current app however the developers have been working really closely with Moodle to make some changes to that basically students want Netflix download management and that's what they expect so if it's any more complicated than that they don't know how to do it so that's what we were finding again much like the priorities I showed earlier the things that we're going to be working on next are probably going to involve these but a lot of that's going to be based on the user feedback that we have for more user testing okay so that's the summary for me so I'm actually going to hand over to Sharon now who's going to talk us through the beta version of the app and then let you know where we're going next with it thanks okay so we've been developing the app for a little while now and this is where we are with our current beta version so it is using the standard Moodle app at the moment this is being used for all our development and testing the standard menus and app navigation are in place and all our courses are available via the course dashboard within each of our courses it opens up on the study planner page students can pick which week they want to view and for all the content in the planner they've got the options to market as complete or download it for offline use our developers have been working really closely with Moodle HQ on more granular control of downloads within courses at the top of the page it's our course navigation that lets students transfer between the key areas such as assessment tutorials and news our online content is delivered through an in-house publishing system and our own plugin with its own navigation it has a range of media audio and visual standard content and interactives accessible content is key for us with figure descriptions for images and transcripts for videos being built in work on our standard content is complete but we're currently working on more in complex interactions in HTML5 the assessment and tutorial pages follow the standard theme and format of our mobile responsive websites the content is viewable within the app as is the students personal data so their assignment scores and tutorial dates and times for tutorials adobe connect is going to be handled outside of the mobile app for our first release collaborative tools aren't going to be included users will be handed off from the app to the mobile web version we started developing the forum ng plugin as you can see but we quickly discovered that it was going to be an unfamiliar experience so we've taken the decision to review our desktop mobile web and app interface in order to redesign a simpler interface that will be the same in all spaces we've come quite far we think we've still got quite a lot to do so we're still working with the Moodle core app for our development and user testing that's with our own students and staff external researchers and participants and our own teams field testing we'll have our branded app in June so basically more blue and less orange for the next round of testing and we're aiming to soft launch to about 20 courses this September the June milestone is actually where we start drafting our communications guidance formalising our support plans and building another stream into our feedback process physically turning on the app is quite simple the trouble is our main teaching and learning servers host a range of websites in a range of themes so we've implemented quite a simple admin interface that allows us to only display listed courses in the app this has been absolutely vital for our live field testing on our live servers and will be critical to our soft launch in September thank you very much thank you so much to you Sharon we have time for a couple questions are there any questions uh not really a question uh that's fantastic to see how you're taking that and running with it um you mentioned one of the things that students were wanting was the uh planning side of things and i've been thinking for a while lately that's a big hold that we have there's something great to work on together is um there are study apps out there where you plug in oh i have this assignment and this assignment due in this many weeks and it helps you plan your time leading up to that your study time which when you think about it is a really obvious thing we should be doing uh helping them organise that so um if you're interested in that or if that's something your students are asking for maybe we can work on that together yeah i mean we we we did look at the timeline functionality and the calendar we're not things we currently use very much so um it's yeah but it's yeah it's the next part so yeah definitely it'd be great to look at that thanks thank you so no one hello hi thank you for the presentation uh couple of things uh i know it's just a very old problem for research uh first what's the percentage of students taken i could say into using the mobile app as a percentage of all the students you have and uh like uh dr ellenberger mathematician says what was the way to provide information about the really lazy users that they didn't use it why and what was the reason okay um so we haven't released the app yet so we're doing the early adopts of release in september um so um up to this point we've done the research and the user testing but we don't have live modules on it yet um the only percentages or numbers i can give you is that our current app currently has around 20 000 users um but we expect the uptake on this one to be quite a lot more i imagine um but at the moment we don't know uh but we'll be doing a steady rollout over between sort of september 2019 and september 2020 so maybe we'll be able to talk about that in busload or next year's middle moot thanks thank you very much thanks


Hey everyone, this is Dan. The Fed has raised the Fed funds rate by more than 5% in the last 18 months. But since August of 2023, it has kept the Fed funds rate at 5.33% because the inflation rate has come down substantially from a few months ago. Many people are saying that the Fed might be ready to start reducing interest rates soon in order to prevent a recession. Assuming the Fed funds rate and other interest rates will come down, let's talk about how we can profit from it. The Fed funds rate is the interest rate that drives the rest of the interest rates. The Fed funds rate is set by the Federal Reserve Bank's FOMC Committee. Let's see how the Fed funds rate has been trending. We can see that it was at 0.08% in February of 2022. It went as high as 5.33% in August of 2023, which was just 3 months ago. In the most recent FOMC meeting that concluded on November 1st, the FOMC members voted to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged because the inflation rate had been coming down and approaching the Fed's target of 2%. Looking into the future, we can refer to the famous dot plot published by the FOMC every quarter. Like in September of this year, the FOMC members voted their projected levels of Fed funds rate for the future. As you can see, for the rest of 2023, the median or the middle point is around where we are at 5.33% or maybe at most a quarter of a percent higher than 5.33%. For next year 2024, they expect roughly 1% of reduction for 2025, yet another percentage point of reduction. Even though the Fed funds rate has not been reduced after reaching the peak of 5.33% in August, the 20-year Treasury rate already came down since October 19, 2023. And that's because the market anticipates the Fed funds rate and the 20-year rate to come down based on what they see in the FOMC dot plot and based on the recent remarks by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed governors. The 10-year Treasury rate has also been coming down since October, same with the 5-year rate and the 2-year rate. The profit from the expected drop in interest rates, we need a financial instrument that will go up in value when the interest rates are coming down. I've chosen TMF. TMF and its inverse-twin TMV are leveraged funds or ETFs maintained by Direction. According to the Direction definition, TMF and TMV are daily 20-plus-year Treasury bull and bear 3x shares that seek daily investment results before fees and expenses of 300% or 300% of the inverse of the performance of the ICE-US Treasury 20-plus-year bound index. TMF is a bull fund. That means when the interest rate goes down and when the value of a bound goes up, TMF goes up. How has TMF been trending since October of this year, while the Treasury rates have been going down? As you can see, TMF has indeed been going up since October. In fact, TMF has gone up 20.3% already since October 23rd, which is certainly very impressive. If you like what you've seen so far in this video, remember to click the like, subscribe and notification buttons. It will allow you to receive notifications when I post my next video. That will also help with the YouTube ranking algorithm. Thank you. We have a lot of important stuff to cover. If you look back at the value of TMF in the last 10 years, you can see that it peaked at 58.3% back in 2020. Not including the short spike in early 2020, the high level of TMF was at about 46%. Its value today is 4.61%. In other words, if it goes back to the early 2020 level, it will be a 10x gain. Even if it just recovered 1 third of its value within the next year or so, we are still looking at potentially a 3x gain, which is going to be quite impressive. For the Fed funds rate and the other interest rates to go down, several macroeconomic indicators will have to line up properly to convince the FOMC members that inflation is under control and that they won't need to increase rates anymore. If the FOMC members believe that inflation is under control and that the economy might be cooling off too much due to the rate hikes and due to quantitative tightening in the last year, the FOMC members will be encouraged to reduce interest rates. I am showing here a few economic indicators that were published this past week. I will highlight the ones that are closely related to FOMC interest rate decisions. The indicators are the Employment Cost Index. It came out to be 1.1%, which is higher than last quarter's 1%, and higher than forecast of 1%. So it's slightly alarming and slightly negative as far as helping interest rate reduction. That's why I highlighted it to be yellow. And then the ADP, Non-Farm Employment, it's 113,000, which is lower than prediction. So I highlighted green. The Joe's job opening, it was 9.553 million, and it's higher than the last month figure of 9.497 million and higher than forecast. I mean, the job market, according to this indicator, seems to be overheating a little bit. And that's red. It'll probably make the FOMC members consider increasing interest rates even more to cool down the job market. Of course, a fat interest rate decision, it was to maintain the fat fund rate at 5.5%, or between the range of 5.3 to 5.5%, which is the same as last month, the same as forecast. So that's green. And then initial jobless claim, and this number contradicts the Joe's job number to some extent because the initial jobless claim actually went up from last month. It's 217,000, as opposed to last month, 212,000 and higher than the prediction. Of course, that's green because that will encourage the FOMC members to lower rate to prevent a recession. And then unit labor cost, quarter to quarter, it's negative 0.8%. Only that's positive for interest rate reduction because the negative labor cost inflation number, that means labor cost is quickly coming down. Then the average hourly earnings, month to month is 0.2%. It's lower than forecast, lower than last month, definitely that's good for interest rate reduction. That means wage inflation is coming down and getting under control and approaching the 2% target of the federal reserve banks. Non-farm payrolls, it went down to 150,000, which is lower than last month, 297,000, lower than forecast, so that's green. And private non-farm payroll, 99,000, lower number than the previous month, and lower than prediction, so that's green. And that'll help FOMC to reduce interest rates in the future. Unemployment rate, it went up from the previous month 3.8% to 3.9%. It's unfortunate for the people who are unemployed, but it's green as far as potential interest rate reduction. As you can see, there are more greens than red or yellow on this page. That means the probability of interest rate reduction will be increasing. In addition to tracking these important economic indicators, I will also be tracking the CPI numbers and PPI numbers. There's another important piece of information that I monitor. That's the CME FedWatch tool. It is posted on the internet and it's updated continually throughout the day. This measurement is the likelihood that the Fed will change the federal target Fed funds rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders. As you can see here, the probability of the Fed funds rate on December 13 being the same as today's rate is at 95.2% according to the traders. A month ago, that probability was only 67%. That means in the last month, the interest rate traders have increasingly believed that the Fed won't increase rates. During the same period, the probability of a rate hike went from 29.8% to just 4.8%. As long as the FedWatch tool is pointing towards a strong possibility of a rate pause or even a rate reduction, TMF will be a profitable investment. So what are my strategies in light of all these? First of all, I bought TMF on November 1, 2023. The value of TMF that I bought on that day already went up 10% and I've decided to buy more TMF on November 3, 2023. Even though I expect TMF to go up in the next year, I will observe the short-term ups and downs of the chart and will swing trade some of the shares to maximize my profit. I will monitor economic data to help me predict the interest reactions by the FOMC. And I will inform my Twitter or ex-subscribers almost on a daily basis about my latest market analysis and trades. At this point, I'd like to suggest that you subscribe to my Twitter account. In addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel, my Twitter or ex-account is DanMarketL. For example, I tweeted that I bought TMF on November 11, 2022 because back then I already expected the long-term rate to eventually drop. But then three days later on November 14, interest rate actually went up a little bit and then TMF started to go down. So at that point, I sold TMF before it became negative. So I was able to realize a 0.5% gain. On November 3, I tweeted that QQQ has hit the resistance trend line. This is the trend line I'm talking about. See, it's hitting that trend line. So I predicted that QQQ was going to go down. And that's why at that point I sold half of my SOFI shares to lock in my profit at 17%. Then I tweeted most recently that I bought TMF on November 1 and November 3 because I expected the interest rates to go down. Thank you for watching All The Way To Here. Again, I'd like to remind you to click the like, subscribe, and notification buttons. As usual, I would very much appreciate your questions, comments, and suggestions. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions. And you should definitely consult your financial advisors before you do so. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.


Hello, and welcome to another episode of Ask an Archaeologist. Ask an Archaeologist is a series of live stream interviews co-hosted by the Archaeological Research Facility and the PBA Hearst Museum of Anthropology at UC Berkeley. During each program, we interview a UC Berkeley affiliated archaeologist and answer audience questions. During this show, you can submit your questions in the chat box on YouTube, which is to the right or the bottom of the video that you're watching. Today, we are happy to have with us Professor Ruth Trangham, who is going to talk about how archaeologists deal with uncertainty celebrating the ambiguity of the archaeological record, a case study from Neolithic Serbia. Ruth is a semi-retired professor of anthropology at UC Berkeley. Her research has always focused on early agricultural Neolithic societies, and she's directed and published archaeological excavations in Southeast Europe and in Turkey at Çatalhöyük. For the last 30 years, she's been celebrating the ambiguous nature of archaeological materials by combining an informed imagination with the results of empirical archaeological research and digital technologies to engage a broader public in alternative scenarios about the prehistoric past. So, Ruth, thank you so much for joining us today and welcome. Thank you. If you'd like to just start with your slideshow. Yeah, I'll do that. I'm going to start sharing if you'll have a second where you see my whole life here on my desktop. That's exciting. And then we'll go off into here. Are we all good? We are, yes, perfect. Yes. Looks good. It does. Okay, shall I start then? Yeah, go ahead. Great. So anyway, I wanted to start with the fact that the big problem about the past is that almost immediately it is ambiguous. It is incomplete. The further back in the past, like the prehistory I work with, the more fragmentary becomes its evidence. I'm an archaeologist and my research focuses on 6000 to 9000 years ago when there are no written documents, no mention of individual people. So what am I to do to humanize my practice? We like our mysteries and our unknowns and uncertain to be resolved and be provided with a truth or a fact. We do not feel comfortable with ambiguity. Do you feel comfortable? If not, I will try to make you feel a little more comfortable in this therapy session. I'll point to four aspects of this that you might even find resonate with your own experiences, even if you are not known have ever been an archaeologist. The first and perhaps the most important of my theme, my four themes, is that history and prehistory are written at different scales. Traditionally, we write narratives about history and prehistory in which the persona of the archaeologist as well as his or her historic subjects remain anonymous and viewed as by a far distant bird's eye. This is history writ large that you see in these three volumes, for example. And how else you might ask, can you write about the past where all that remains a fragmentary remnants of their lives? The extraordinary thing is that this generalized view of human history is based on the evidence that is the result of individual events, including archaeological data that are created by tiny events of humans dropping, forgetting, losing and burying. The kinds of dramas written about by professional fiction writers, but not by archaeologists, with some exceptions. And these are just a few exceptions, including my own in this volume that I'll be talking about a little later. I have worked with a top down model called the Neolithic Revolution, involving the spread of agriculture into Europe. All through the 1980s, the household scale is as far as I felt comfortable in making statements about life in the past. The household scale would be about as much as I can point to in the lower picture down here that I'm pointing to with my little arrow. Looking at a place from a distance or a bird's eye view, the ambiguities of the data can be smudged over by broad statements about household activities or village exchange or regional movements. Only in 1988, when I was encouraged to think about what these generalized models would look like at a human scale, that the questions such as, well, they had to walk everywhere, carrying or dragging all their stuff. Who did the carrying and how? Who fetched the water and where from and what did they wear on their feet? It is at the intimate scale of inside the household where these stories are the richest. There is an enormous space for devising alternative scenarios here, but only by using the imagination. Informed by the fragmentary empirical evidence, we have nothing else in prehistory. What I love is the challenge of constructing prehistory from this intimate scale where you have to bring the imagination into play, building from the available empirical data, the physical evidence to give names and personalities to your actors, because they certainly had those. It is easier to write about human change from the viewpoint of a millennium that you see on the far left here, since the details are blurred out. It is much harder to bring your imagination to focus on the scale of a human lifetime, seen over here on the right, and show how they've got names here, which of course are completely made up. But somebody had to be living in this yellow square that we call the subject of my case study, Opovo. This is it, here getting bigger as we consider the half millennium, and here divided now into three building horizons that cover the 200 years of the occupation of Opovo. And this is coming into looking at the generations and now the human lifetimes. All of this whole column here, this red column, is completely made up by my imagination, but it's not entirely as simple as that. At Opovo, I'm now going to begin, introduce my case study, the excavations at Opovo in Serbia. At the time of the excavations in 1983 to 89, it was in the former Federated Republics of Yugoslavia, now it's in Serbia.  These were easy to spot on the surface by a mass of red burned clay rubble that were the remains of their houses. Their houses were built in the Wattle and Dorb system that you see up in the top left picture. This phenomenon of, I should say, what's interesting is that in this area of Europe during a 2000 year period, known as the Neolithic and Neolithic, from 5,000 to 300, 3,000 BC, all the houses of all the villages were completely burned. This phenomenon has been labeled the burned house horizon. And it's a blanket or grand scale term that allows for many explanations. And in fact, you can see it's covering there in the red area here on this map and actually now comprises a much larger area since recent excavations over towards the northeast over there. The favorite explanations by archaeologists to explain this phenomenon were traditionally common sense explanations. It must have been invasion or raiding or a huge swath of accidental fires. But at Oppovo, we wanted to provide a set of empirical data that would at least be a starting point for dealing with the ambiguous situation or such a widespread phenomenon of house burning. Our project at Oppovo was designed specifically to investigate the burned house horizon phenomenon to determine firstly, were the fires accidental or were they deliberate intentional. And secondly, were they single fire events or were they simultaneously simultaneous village wide fires. We excavated several houses, like the one you see in the top left hand picture with detailed systematic methods that resembled a modern arson investigation, including the analysis of the burned rubble that you see over in the on the left here. And then analyzing later on in the lab, we don't have it here, the temperature of burning of the clay, and it by this we were able to create fire maps where we were could identify hotspots the yellow ones here, and then point to a reconstruction of what of what it looks like that happened. We concluded from these these analyses that these houses were not burned at the same time in a village wide fire, but were burned in separate events. Moreover, they were not burned by accident by but by deliberately intentional firing. And as you can see here what the the the fire was helped by adding fuel to the to the already the fire which was started and then adding fire of fuel continuously through the process and carefully orchestrated so that the walls collapsed inwards over the first roof. And no humans were ever found burned in the buildings. Some houses had a rich array of ceramics and other materials burned in the house on its floors and covered by the debris of the walls and the roof. You can see the kind of temperature at which these houses were burning which was one of the evidences of deliberate firing. And for instance this vitrified clay here is the is burning burned at over 2000 degrees Fahrenheit well easily able to melt metal. So, some houses had no artifacts and the resulting mass on the ground that you see here in the top left is a permanent inhibitor of vegetational growth it's a massive solid area of burned clay, ceramic like clay. And it lasted for millennium millennia until the even the present day, where the fields of the farmers find it in their fields, and they use it to fill potholes. And really as far as we could go in terms of scientifically proven data, our field excavations were interrupted by the Yugoslav Civil War. Later in the 2000s field studies by other archaeologists helped to confirm or clarify our empirical data from the Yugoslav Civil. But still our conclusions did not satisfy me, or anyone else. I did not expect the mystery of why the houses were burned to be solved. Explanation would involve informing our imaginations about all the possible reasons for the intentional burning of houses. To evaluate which explanation would be more plausible in given archaeological contexts. After the end of the oppover field seasons in the early 1990s. I began to explore ways in which the empirical data from the oppover excavations could be linked through the blossoming digital consumer technologies to fictional narratives in which I imagined residents live their lives around the focus of fire and houses. I was thrilled by the way in which the limitations I had been experiencing with creating fictional narratives in printed media and making in making such links, all of those limitations dropped away when I use the digital data and I could almost realize my dreams of actually doing the link the live linking of data to narratives or to stories. In using the digital world. The camera web which you see here on on the left, you can see it's it's entangled network of links that include some data stuff some stories, some other stuff from lateral thinking that bring in the reason why we some some models are more plausible than others. All of this. This is the camera web. That I created during the 1990s and you can see that the anchoring part and anchor over here is recognizing the sources of the archaeology archaeologists imagination. The more richly informed our imagination is by our lived experiences by researching house burning in history and ethnography. The more interesting will be our investigations and our interpretive stories as we attempt to go beyond the limitations of the physical archaeological data. For instance, I found many possible reasons for intentionally burning houses in ethnography and history from disease tests greed, domiciled and others, but one motivation was especially interesting to me. This was the deliberate burning of a house as a symbolic act of funeral pyre for the house, what I call Domithanasia. I learned that this would happen in the context of a strong importance to the society of the household as the central unit of society. Just as I had been theorizing for Opovo and the other burned house horizon villages. So this became my most plausible and loved explanation. Yes, I have to say it was my favorite. I imagined its benefits for the residents, for instance to memorialize the house to ensure the continuity of the household through many generations of houses and residents. And the effect and affect of the symbolic intensity of the performance of the fire, the burning itself. All of this can be used to inspire our imaginations to generate our interpretations of the empirical data. But this path from source to imagination to inference has to be treated with care. It has to be done explicitly and transparently and not hidden. This brings me then to the final little theme here, which is that the past is always seen through the eyes of the present. As an archaeologist of prehistory, I look at the past through a double lens myself and the remains and ruins that are silent witnesses. We have to work hard to hear my own lens, like all of yours is colored by my various standpoints and viewpoints that I have on the world and the past. And these need to be taken. We need to be aware of these as we are making our interpretations. I have a need for voiceless voices and taken for granted to be exposed and examined by critical analysis. I value the importance of ritual in our lives as markers of times and events and continuity. I have a dislike of essentializing statements that generalize groups of people and places when in reality they are made up of an ever changing mosaic or network of communities and scenes. And I regularly aim for the unexpected by turning to traditional expectation on its head. For example, I chose a female to orchestrate the burning of a house instead of the expected male leader. I have given inanimate archeological archeological artifacts a voice in the latest of my stories. In my stories, however, I try never to lose sight of the empirical archeological data out of which they are drawn. Creating knowledge is a cumulative and collaborative process, whether you lean towards the narrative or scientific method of creating it. My role is to encourage you to hear what I say, and from that make a link. You make a link that makes it meaningful in your own experience and imagination. And that's your responsibility. So I have a couple of minutes if I'm allowed. Am I allowed two more minutes? Of course. Yes. Yes. I got one. I got one just to show this haiku, which sort of draws this together. I could have cut it if I needed to. Oh, everyone always loves a haiku. This is a small movie. Actually, it's a haiku. Let me just, I didn't mean to start it yet. I got too excited. I made this haiku about the intertwining of past and present in our minds as we practice archeology. It's called Crossing Timelines, and it's about a more recent archeological project called the BAK project that I didn't talk about today at the 9000 year old Neolithic settlement of Chattelhuyuk in Turkey. Okay. Great. That's a nice way to end. Thank you, Ruth. Pleasure. I hope I didn't take, did I? No, no. It was great. I want to remind people, the listeners who are listening live, you can ask a question by typing it into the chat box on YouTube. And so, Ruth, can you comment on, that's a huge area that this burnt house phenomenon is happening across and across a very long time. Can you comment a little bit on what other excavations are like, how many places is documented and across how wide an area. You know, it's very interesting. I gave a talk about this last fall in England. It was called Fire Friend or Fo. And as I was preparing for that, I looked and looked for anybody who had written some kind of survey or whatever of where it was. And there is none. There's all just sort of bits and pieces at the moment. It is needed. People say, well, I'm writing one like that or whatever. I think they just don't want me to write one. But anyway, that's not have that on. So I'm not sure I would have the energy or time to do that. But there is a lot. It's found all over. There are some new excavations in southern Hungary that actually put it earlier than it had thought it was before. You know, it's still Neolithic, but it's earlier in the Neolithic. We thought it was just part of the mature Neolithic. And there's more stuff over in the Ukraine, very new excavations of these mega sites, which are all burned. What's interesting is that there have been many years where archaeology was being done and nobody ever talked about the burning. It wasn't a topic of investigation, which is it was just taken for granted. Well, that burned. It's an accident or it's neighbors or used for as different parts. But in general, there are a lot and there have been some very interesting experimental works. We have done recently in the 2000s experimental in terms of to create the same mass of clay to actually say, you know, to repeat our conclusions and very interesting experiments and also some analyses that have been done. But it's not it's not been a lot of sort of real systematic collection of the data. It's interesting because you know why because it's very ugly stuff. Well, you would think that people would comment on it considering that it is so hot that it destroys everything. I mean, it sounds like you have very little artifactual evidence from this site. There is actually that's not quite true because a lot of the time the the ceramics, they survive quite well, bones not so well. So the animal bones from those sites from the houses don't don't survive so well, but around the houses there are pits, storage pits or rubbish pits garbage pits, not so much a couple of storage. There's a well. There's a we had a well at Opovo, but these big pits that were dug to for the clay to build the door to make the houses. And so that was quite a common and common phenomenon. And so there is a lot of art.  Yeah, but the houses themselves. You're right. There's not a lot that survives but bone does survive. I think if there were humans in there, we would have found them. So, yeah. Great. We have a question from the audience about how frequent. Did these house burning rich rights happen and in for instance the time span of an individual individual life. So it's a well, no, we can't. First of all, we don't have the people we assume that they didn't they lived a relatively short life about perhaps a generation or a generation and a half, perhaps not not far past 40 or 4045. But in that time. They might have experienced. I actually imagined one in another in Chattel who you could try to do this I imagined that this young woman moved into the house at the age of 12 and lived in the whole the house for the whole time until she died at the age of about 45. So that would be a generation really and but that it's probably the only would have experienced their own house burning once. But if we think of every all every house being burned at the end of its life so that and you might have several households in a village so you could imagine that a person might at up above we maybe had five 10 houses. And the whole settlement we didn't actually we only excavated four or five. So they might have, and they were all burned. So there, there were at least three, four, five houses. Yeah, it's interesting to think about how the burning of the house is something that people would have perceived possibly as something positive, or that's, you know, part of their what they do with their community and do you well because you were in that fire panel that we did last year I know that you've been thinking about this but the way that we in California in particular, and many parts of the world now think about fire it's in a very negative way and that's why I called that. Yeah, actually it's interesting that's why I called my, my talk last October, the fire friend or foe because what was interesting was that in when in that same panel, Kent Lightfoot, and I think he was with also talking about the whole idea of Native Americans who saw fire as something positive in a different way you know the the controlled burning of the forest was something that enhanced the environment. It didn't destroy it and that's I it's interesting that our whole negative looking at fire comes from, especially I think urban context the urbanism. Urban context where if one house burns. It's likely that another one will catch fire very easily that if the especially if the house is a book built of more flammable material one of the things that I didn't say and this is that these wattle and door houses are very difficult to burn. There is this massive layer of clay, and the word the flammable parties is sandwiched in between the outer skin and the inner skin which is this clay door. So that that protects it from fire which is an amazing thing but still so this is, I think I wanted to say that that even house burning, like in some environmental burning can be seen and probably was seen more as beneficial. Not, not necessarily in a practical sense, but in a more sort of symbolic emotional sense that I think that it's a long it's a it's a it's a long story how we came in California to think of fire as very dangerous. And it started in the Second World War, you might have known this when they, they sent fire bombs, the Japanese sent fire fire balloons across the Pacific that floated all the way to California and everybody that's where you know the bear. What's he called smoky bear was helping people to look out in the countryside for these fire bombs. And that's where the whole fear of fire started I'm sure it's been exacerbated by what you know our own experience now. Recently, right. The listener has a sort of a follow on question to that that if this is a sort of ritual or cultural phenomenon. Can you do you see evidence over time of this pattern sort of growing or expanding in practice. Actually, it does it changes spatially and chronologically the earliest in the beginning that the earliest evidence we have of the house burning is over in certain present day Serbia in and possibly Hungary as well. And the western part of Southeast Europe, and the latest is in the Ukraine, which goes on all the way into the three thousand two thousand eight hundred and doesn't start until. The first part of his shifting eastwards through time and space. And that's actually something that seems to not have occurred to people to archaeologists until very recently so nobody's really written very much about that. And that's something that I noticed as I was doing this, and it started at the earliest evidence I think is in these big continuous settlements in the western part of the south of Southeast Europe the tell settlements, big settlements, not in little tiny villages but caught on then expanded to the smaller settlements, as time went on. That's great it sounds like there's a lot of research that can be done. I mean, I even said that in this talk, you know, not this one I just gave but in October I said, is really nice dissertation for anybody who wants it, that's just waiting to be done. So we're about out of time I had one more question that if you apparently a listener has written in to ask about the haiku if you could explain a little bit more about it. Well, I actually wrote about that in an if that was written for a presentation in a symposium which became a volume of book. And I mean, my chapter is in that book from the symposium, which is called archaeology's of the heart. And it was from, and we were supposed to write about you know what something how archaeology appeal to our emotions. And so I had been thinking about this whole thing of, of how it's crossing at the whole crossing of the timelines, how we're thinking from now to back then. And they would have been from thinking from now to as time, you know, they're living the time as it's going forward. So in our seven years. They were living perhaps 45 years. So it's very it's just, it's just a lovely thing of example of the relativity of time. Very nice. Great. Well thank you for that explanation. And thank you so much for joining us today Ruth. Great to hear about your work. Thank you. Yeah, thank you and thanks to everyone. Sorry, sorry. We hope you can join us tomorrow. We're going to be having Anna Nielsen present talking about a closer look at Nabataean burials comparing primary and secondary burials and Nabataean contexts at Petra. And we hope we hope you can join us then same time tomorrow. And also if you have a chance to fill out the feedback form which the link is in the bottom in the description of the video below the screen here. So thank you so much for joining us today and we hope to see you at another one.


There's a lot of talk and a lot of work around countering violent extremism. Focus of this particular project has been upstream. How do we actually prevent this type of violent extremism in societies, in communities? Women and women's organizations are taking up the challenge in preventing violent extremism. My exposure to violent extremism started with the Mumbai terror attack. Innocent people in the hospitals with thousands of pellets in their bodies. I saw what terror does. It was a raw experience. They were young boys who did it. About five years ago, the conflict in my city just took a different dimension. Women and children became targets of extremist violence. I visited the village after the massacre of over 500 women and children, some as young as two months old. And that was a turning point. Whatever I had to do to not let that ever happen again, I was going to do my best. And I hope to learn... I'm a Muslim. We are wondering how come there are so many people joining extremism. You see the speakable things they do in the name of Islam. And this is what has driven me into try and stem the recruitment of impressionable young men and women into extremism. As they were frustrated, they had no say. There were no mediums to speak out. I have never seen peace. In my living memory, I have always seen violence. From the last three summers, which we also call summers of discontent, we saw youngsters, mostly teenagers and women, coming on the forefront, pelting stones against security forces. Hundreds got killed. That whenever there is a conflict, the woman knows it, but she doesn't have the heart to speak out and say, don't do this or what you're doing is wrong. Our activists are leaders from the countries which are targeted by violent extremism in their daily lives and we work together to respond in the preventive arena. After 9-11, what I sensed is that one building block in a solid, sustainable security architecture is missing. It's the women. Those who are targeted, those who are affected, they don't have a voice. They are not part of the strategic set-ups. And I think this is reflected in the current policies. I realized that religion was a major tool that was used to perpetrate the continual violence. We formed an organization called Women Without Walls. We've come together to say we are women. We have one voice and we want peace. And we're not going to fold our hands and let this crime continue. We live in a society where women are not supposed to be heard. Coming out to make your voice heard and to really do make an impact means you have to cross so many hurdles. The young people we work with, we're dialoguing, we're engaging them and they're ready to listen to us. But we have to give them something else as an alternative. And that is really a challenge considering the high level of poverty and unemployment. When we are talking about terrorism or extremism at the broader level, we haven't seen participation of women. We haven't seen them proactively involved in it. Every time there's a male in forefront, we strongly believe that a mother has a role to play. The hardest thing is having to get people to talk about it. It's so much in their hearts, but yet nobody wants to speak up. To talk about it in private, but not in an open discussion. Then the environment sort of elevates what is already inside. We eat the feeling of marginalization. They feel they are not part of something. They find avenues to express themselves, but not necessarily in what would be perceived as a positive expression. The biggest challenge I face in my country is this denial mode. It's not me, it's somebody else. And I think that is a major hurdle in the entire process. There's always a lot of engagement at the community level. So how do we empower the same movement so that they can effect change? I believe there is no one way that fits everything. What works is appreciating youth and what they understand as what is right and what is wrong. And then engaging with them to understand your point of view as well. At the same time, you're looking at how do I empower this young person to have better critical thinking? Sometimes being extremist does not necessarily mean you're violent. If we build a relationship between the states and the community that will improve intelligence, policing, that will improve information sharing. People would want to talk to the police and police would begin to go from reactive policing into proactive policing because information is really key. I engage with young people of both gender. Some of the work I do is directly related also with policy, supporting, for instance, governments to build trust between law enforcement and community. A simple football match can bring people together and then they can start building mutual understanding. For a long time, the law enforcers and the women have not been partners. Even if you have an issue within the community, the women do not have the confidence to go and talk to the law enforcers. So we've had dialogue forums where we've brought the two parties on the table. We've discussed and we've agreed that everybody has something to do. And we've created such a good network that we can now be talking to each other. Mothers who have lost their son, they gain confidence, they're now talking about it, and they want to use them as role models to encourage the other women to come up and talk. Sisters without borders are coming up together and bringing the voice of women out so that we can talk and say, my son has joined, my son is changing, I am sensing some danger in my house. Now they have realized that the men were taking sides, so they know that women have no borders. The government has a lot of trust in us. We work hand in hand with the government. The community also, if they have information about terrorists wanting to attack somewhere, we informed the government and we actually prevented that attack from happening.  To be able to say, oh, it's my problem, I think, that is what was, I would say, the success part. In terms of making mothers aware that they are part of identifying in the families about radical behavior, the idea of including fathers is a good one as well. So we have to basically include mothers and fathers together. They have a role to play in preventing radicalism in their children. I believe in sharing and learning and the solutions also come from within. A problem, you are not going to look at the government for every solution. I run a community radio station. We are hoping that this talking results in affirmative action. I work very intensely, intimately with communities. I look at all issues. Dialogue has been amazing. I remember some of the volatile communities we went into and we met young people that are prone to violence and we sat down and talked with them. They said this was the first time anybody ever bothered to find out how they felt. Small developmental projects into these communities are major entry points. It can open up the whole community to you. So just engaging them and talking with them I think is the most powerful thing that has worked for us. No one actor, no one stream of activity in and of itself will be enough to keep a family whole and peaceful or to keep a community healthy. Gender offers some opportunities for people in different roles to play unique, to be unique influences in preventing violent extremism. And helping those who see themselves as intermediaries for difficult and challenging situations for resolving conflict. Those are all ways in our daily life that we as citizens can help create an environment in which people can work out differences peacefully and not resort to violent extremism. So we approach preventing violent extremism in the same vein that it really takes a whole community. We can't solve problems. Women in a silo, men in a silo. At some point we have to come together and see how we work together to make a difference.


Hello, everyone. I am Sanjay Gupta. I welcome you on Sanjay Gupta Tech School. Let's understand the requirement that I'm going to demonstrate in this video. So we will be calling ScreenFlow through Aura Component. So first of all, we need to create a ScreenFlow, then we need to call ScreenFlow through Aura and then we will be placing the Aura Component either on record page or we can call it through QuickAction as well. So let's jump into the Aura Component and first quickly create a ScreenFlow. So I'm creating a new flow. So in this ScreenFlow, I'm going to create a screen where I will be receiving some input from the user so that we can create new opportunity. So creating a screen and labeling it as opportunity info. Now from left-hand side, you can just select text as a component and here you can provide it label as name, API will be name and it is required. Then to create a new opportunity, we need to have one more field that is date, close date. So here you can search date and then select date. So this component will be placed. You can provide label as close date, API is populated automatically. You can make it required as well. Now if you want to create a opportunity, so along with name, close date, there's one more field required that is stage name. So it is of type pick list. So from here you can search for pick list component. Now here you can label it as stage name, required. Now what we need to do, we need to link this pick list with the opportunity pick list field. So just click here, select new choice resource and select pick list choice set. So we are going to link this flow pick list with opportunity pick list field that is stage name and done. So now the stage name will be having values populated automatically. Now I'm clicking on done. I'm going to create one new resource variable named as record ID type is text and available for input. So it will be available for input from the aura component. So this time this flow will be receiving the input from aura component. So I just clicked on done. Now here I'm going to select one more element that is create records. So here we are going to create an opportunity. So I am selecting use separate resources and literal values object. I'm selecting as opportunity then name. So on left hand side you can see this name is a field of opportunity and right hand side we are receiving name from user in the name screen component. So I'm linking it. Then we need to add one more row so that we can link close date. So this left hand side is field and right hand side is screen component then adding one more field. So this time I'm going to link stage. So here we have two stage names. One is pick list choice set and one is screen component. So you need to select screen component because it is all automatically having that pick list choice set. So I linked it. Then we need to populate the account ID with this record ID so that the opportunity which you are creating. So basically we will be creating this opportunity on the account record. So it should be linked to the account record automatically after the creation. So with this it will be connected and now I'm clicking on done. So this way our screen flow is created. I'm going to save it. I'm saving it as screen flow for aura and it is the API name for this flow and I'm just clicking on save and activating it. So this flow first part is completed. Now I need to create an aura component. So I just need to click here on gear icon. I'm just opening developer console. Now here I need to create new components. So I'm closing this file clicking on file new and from here I'm selecting lightning component. So I'm going to name it as call flow. And I will be placing this lightning component on the record page and prediction. Right. So I'm enabling these two check boxes so that this flow, sorry, this aura component will be available to place on the report page and to call from the prediction. So here you can see two files are available. So this is just for description. So you can close it. And here in this aura component, you need to write your code. So here you can see we have these interfaces which are implemented. So this is first one that is available for record home. Then we have force colon as record ID and then force colon lightning prediction. So available for record home will make it this lightning component will be available for placement on the record page. Then if you want to fetch the ID of the record on which this flow, sorry, this aura component is placed so that ID will be fast automatically through this interface has a record ID. And if you want to place this aura component on the prediction, so you need this interface. Right. Now, what we can do. I'm just creating one handler. The name of this handler is in it. So if you are not aware much with the code, so this will seem difficult to you, but if you know a little bit of code, so it will be very easy for you. So generally, custom developer perform this operation. So if you created a flow so you can walk with your custom developer or if you are already a custom developer, then I think you will be able to understand this. So this is a handler, which will run automatically in it means it will be initialized whenever your component is loaded on the browser. Value equals to this means this component handler like whatever method you want to run when your component is loaded. The method is defined inside this component itself. And the method name is doing it right. So this doing it method we need to define in the aura components controller that will be written in JavaScript. So before that I need to write one more statement. That is lightning colon flow or a colon ID equals to flow data. So this way lightning component view, this is known as view of lightning component like your lightning flow will be placed here automatically with the help of this ID. So now at right hand side, you just need to click on controller so that JavaScript file will be opened and there you can write the code related to your handlers method. So I'm just copying this name and I'm placing it here. Now here we need to create a variable named as flow and we need to write component dot find flow data. So here you can see we created a markup lightning flow whose ID is flow data. So this I'm finding with the help of component dot find. I just passed or ID and the return the value will be available in this flow variable. Now, after this, we need to set input values in a variable. So we are going to set input values in a variable. So I'm creating variable named as input variables. Now inside this, I'm going to provide the name as record ID type will be string and value. I'm going to fetch through component dot get V dot record ID. Right. So here what we can do we can create one attribute named as record ID and its type will be of type string. So because of this interface has record ID when you will be placing this component on the record page. So that records ID will be available in this record ID variable automatically and that variable we are fetching here through component dot get. So this value will be assigned into this input variable name as record ID. Now we are going to pass this into the flow. After creation of this variable, you can call your flow. So you can write flow dot start flow and inside parenthesis, you need to provide the API name of your flow. So from properties, I can fetch the API name and I'm placing it here and here I'm going to pass input variables. So this way lightning component is created. So you can just save both the files, this components view and this components controller. Now after saving it, you can jump to your account record. So open any of the account record and click on this gear icon, edit page. So lightning app builder is open and from here I'm going to remove the previously placed components. And if I scroll down, so at the bottom, you can see I have a custom component named as call flow. And if I take you here, so our component name is also called flow, right? So this way I can drag and drop it. So you can see I just placed my auto component and it is automatically showing that flow here. So now I can just click on save, go back. So this way you can use your screen flow in the auto component. So here name, close date and stays we can populate and then click on next. So it is executed and this opportunity is not linked here. So let me just check whether opportunity is created or not. The opportunity is created, but it is not connected. So just do a refresh. And you can see like account name is populated here in this opportunities list because it is refreshed. And if you go to account now, so here also you can see the newly created opportunity. So after creation of opportunity, you just need to refresh your page so that it will reflect. And if after completion of opportunity creation, if you want to just apply force refresh so that code also you can write in your auto component. So for that, you need to like search like how we can refresh the page just after action is performed. Otherwise, in this scenario, you just need to refresh your page so that you can see your opportunity linked to the account. So this way I hope you understood like how we can call or screen flow through auto component in Salesforce.


Now every single brand out there has what we will call a-styles and b-styles They have styles within the brand that sell really really really well and some styles that don't sell as well Okay, we call those a-styles and b-styles now that being said what is an a-style for one practice? It might not necessarily be an a-style for another practice So don't let your rep determine what is a-styles and b-styles in your office You need to know this what is unique for your optical and what's good for you might not be good for Dr Bob up the street So you need to know what is a-styles and b-styles within your frame brands the major point to understand here is that there are hot Sellers, and they're not hot sellers a-styles and b-styles a spexy We're all about refreshing your brands, but you need to do it strategically You need to bring in new styles that are replacing styles that haven't sold watch what happens Let's say you have a brand with the board space allotment of 20 on your board Let's say 10 of them move like crazy So those would be considered the a-styles and then 10 of the styles don't move so much So we're gonna consider those the b-styles So a-styles red is what we're gonna do and b-styles will remain black in this visual So let's say you wait for the rep to come in by the time the rep comes in You have sold five frames and the chances are of these five frames that sell that most of them are going to be a-styles So in this little scenario, we are going to have four of them that have sold as a-styles So four of the red ones have sold and one black one has sold So they'll have five frames that need to be reordered by the time your rep comes in now When the rep comes in best part about reps coming in is you get a shock You get to see all the new stuff that's coming out So let's say that you fall in love with three of the new styles that the rep comes in with So you have two more spots on your board to replace it So you are going to obviously order in two more a-frames now It is unclear if these new style frames are going to be a-sellers or b-sellers in your office You don't know because you haven't sold them yet So we're going to mark the new styles as yellow because we don't know what they're gonna be The problem is is that at this point you have effectively replaced your brand that held 50% known a-styles to now only holding 40% known a-styles If this trend keeps up the likelihood of replacing all of your known a-styles With unknown styles or styles that I've yet to prove themselves is highly likely It doesn't make much sense, does it? Yet we see it in opticals all the time Now again at Spexy we are all about refreshing your brands But you need to do it strategically and you need to be aware of when you're bringing on Unknown styles on how well they're gonna sell You need to make sure they're replacing your b-styles and not your a-styles Now this ordering style seems like complete nonsense when I lay it out for you this way However, I would be willing to bet that this is happening in your optical The reason why is because it's happening in about 80% of opticals Where they're unknowingly replacing the the known a-styles that are in their inventory


I need two items from Anixia for the tournament.  Ah-oh, ah-oh, ah-oh, ah-oh. Yeah, and I keep getting these legs, but- What?!  No! Streamer loot! Both the items! Are you serious?! No, I think it's all better now, actually. Oh, that's good, dude. Dude, both the items that I need to drop. What?! Dude! How?! Are you serious?! What are the chances?! Dude, I- There's three items that I needed. Last night, I ran one before reset. I got one of them. Dude, what is the- Dude, there's like- The chance of this happening is so small.  I-I don't know. We'll see. Dude! That's hilarious, dude! Oh my gosh! Okay, I have to go now. Hahaha! Shaman's happening, but- I'm gonna play with Shaman. Play Shaman. There's none of me coming mine yet. One is Shaman. Two. Three is A. One is B. One is spinning in a bag. One is Rune. He's like- Where about the- Should we taunt? Should we taunt? I'm taunting, I'm taunting, I'm taunting. I'm taunting, I'm taunting. This guy's obsessed with emoting me instead of fighting the flag. Get Molson mode. Shaman's back. Taunting. T-Sabo. Hahaha! I thought it didn't go on him. Hahaha! He's broke the shadows, I think. They're like spamming Lapamage. She got smug. What's up, Ega? Spamming Cocktail.  Ecuador is number one. I already know that. Tastes opening, I think I can go to the gym. Yeah, but it's not about things being open. Things being open is not- Right. He's like, is it actually safe? Don't spin happy baby month baby tongue for the crusade. It's Phantbex. Thanks- My bop was on cooldown. Swim this thing for the nine months, dude. My bop was on cooldown. Hahaha! I wasn't paying attention, dude. Oh man. Hey, if I'm ranking, you're gonna see stuff like this all the time. Where people just get tired and just- Or I just get tired and then just- I just do something that's like, what the hell's wrong with you? Oh, that was funny. I'm gonna get focused hard. Yeah, I'm gonna go in on this. They're gonna focus me hard. Watch this chat. Watch this. Ready? Ready? Watch this rogue. Deleted. Easy clap. And that mage. Maven dead. Relaxed dead. Good. Go away. Go alone. Alright. I actually think, you know, I think me and Miskiv would- Would get it really well. I think we could become really good friends. I actually have a five-year plan where I think me and Miskiv- Start becoming really, really, really great pals. Then he'll invite me to Thanksgiving. And when he invites me to Thanksgiving dinner, His whole family will love me. And I can become part of the family. With this district. Yeah, I hear you're loud and clear, dude. As we go into the economy, plans for after quarantine.  Yeah.  You know what I mean?  You know what I'm saying? Yeah. You get it. I do too. I like that a lot. I really like the sound of that. It sounds good. I want to see someone getting fucking- We do that in Crescent. We don't do that in Crescent, Cayenne. Here, take it. Take it, Armdy. Okay. I got blind. Kiss you. Blocked. There's G coming. L.M. from the farm. Nice. I know. That was so good, dude. It's so clean. You're in a boat. Jenny and Aswin are drowning. Both fits one more. Who do you save? Oh, no. I heard the word. What? I'd save McConnell.  I'm going to smoke this mage. That looks fine. Resist!  Ah! Hit me. Rogue, hit me. Hit me, Rogue. Is this a casual kill? He's still just stomping? Yeah. We haven't lost one yet. This is how it goes when we do battle runs. But this is like a good group of players. I know all these guys. They're all good. Is he going control speck? No, not right now. I'm reckoning. I was control speck in the dual tournament. I'm going to go reckoning for the dual tournament, too, just because. They're pushing out an LLM bot. They're looking at Blacksmith. They're looking at Park. They're going ST. I'm a red. I'll think about it. Big body?   But yeah. Okay. What is this? I feel like I've never been here. Oh, I've been here. Dude, I'm hitting so hard, dude. I've been here, too. We both went together and streamed together. It's going to be so funny. We're going to farm so many news. Oh, my gosh. Dude, I just smoked that guy. So look at how he dropped grounding totem and I still stunned him, right? It's because it redirected the two damage from my blaze free medallion to the grounding totem. So it redirects the damage to the grounding totem, nullifies it, and then I can just stun. Easy. Easy pump. Good pump. Oh, I broke that. Sorry, sorry. I'm going to peel free hot form. Freedom you, Merc. I don't know how he got off that one. Oh! Come on, Priest. Oh, no, I got stuck in the GCD. Oh, I got stuck in the GCD and I couldn't bubble. Dude, smoked him, dude. It's an excellent pump earlier, true. Thank you. Thank you, man. Okay, one, two. Easy clap, boys.  What the hell, dude? Guys, this is just shameless, dude. What should I kill?  Kill him all sub. There it is. How we're going to do it? No, listen to what I'm saying. Neither of us have a job. We have nothing better to do. We can get both of them, and I can explain how. So no, no, listen. All right, because the brackets are set on Feralina and everybody that does them only gets to a certain amount of honor. We only need to farm. We only need to play 40 hours a week. Only like 40 or 30 hours a week to get ranked 14. I already did the math based off of how long did I get honor. I got only, I was standing 300. And I already got two ranks. Like I'm popping off. Now on top of that, then we spend another 20 hours a week doing Azeroth Champion. That's nothing, dude. That's something. That's only 60 hours total.  Each week. And also Azeroth Champion won't take that long. What? Actually good. Actually good. Eccentric and with unlimited oil princes, he recently hosted his own PVP Tournament. At which he won 14 gold medals. Let's see, no macking up. He's scared. He's scared. Are they going to get 3v1? I feel like they're much better. They're a lot more handsome and charismatic usually. That's any high for TBC, dude. TBC is like, that's my main. Like that's when I was good. Like I wasn't good at WoW in vanilla. I was like pretty good in private server, right? But in retail for any crusade, I was really good. I was the top rated rep paladin on our battle group until my team went in active. You guys are playing this. You became a tier 2 S. Where is my TBC? I miss having all the private server guys playing the same server today.


Hello and welcome back to another episode of Physics Partner. Today we are going to explore the second law of planetary motion proposed by the brilliant Johannes Kepler. Kepler's second law states that a line segment joining a planet and the sun sweeps out equal areas during equal intervals of time. In simpler terms, this means that the planet moves faster when it is closer to the sun and slower when it is farther away. This concept is crucial in understanding the elliptical orbits of planets and predicting their positions accurately. The significance of Kepler's second law cannot be overstated. It provided a mathematical explanation for the irregular motion of planets observed by astronomers for centuries by showing that planets do not move at a constant speed but instead accelerate and de-accelerate as they orbit the sun. Kepler's law helped to pave the way for Isaac Newton's law of universal gravitation. With Kepler's second law, astronomers were able to accurate predict the positions of planets in the night sky and unravel the mysteries of the cosmos. This law fundamentally changed our understanding of the universe and laid the groundwork for modern celestial mechanics. The practical applications of Kepler's second law are vast, from guiding spacecraft on interplanetary missions to studying the formation of planetary systems in distant galaxies. This law has revolutionized our ability to explore the cosmos by understanding how planets move in their orbits scientists can make precise calculations and predictions about the behavior of celestial bodies. In conclusion, Kepler's second law of planetary motion is a cornerstone of modern astronomy. Its concept, significance and applications have reshaped our understanding of the universe and continue to inspire generations of astronomers to explore the mysteries of the cosmos. So I think it's enough for today. So thank you very much for listening and watching. I hope you enjoyed the video. I hope this video is useful for you. So take care of yourself and don't hesitate to write an email if you have any questions, queries, suggestions and even classes are required. Take care of yourself. See you in the next video. Goodbye.