This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got some very fun and important games coming up in week number 15 in the NFL some games That would go a long way towards deciding who gets the playoffs what the seeds may look like and much more We're gonna break down those games for today with dr. Ed Feng getting his read on the key games across week 15 and let you know where his number show value over at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by dr. Ed Feng find his work at the power bank comm check him out on Twitter at the power rank and week 15 is coming up How you doing today? I'm doing great looking forward to some more NFL football and you know, we're getting pretty close to those college football semifinal games So, yeah, I'm doing great. We got semifinals coming up, which they look pretty fun. We've got Pretty good playoff races in both the AFC and NFC, you know a lot of middle-ean teams involved But still it's more fun to talk about middle-ean teams and their playoff implications Especially for the Saturday games this week as well. We'll talk about one of those games with Lions and Broncos So a lot left up in the air. I think it's gonna be a fun I know it's been a weird year with all the quarterbacking injuries and stuff like that but yeah, I think it is at least reassuring yet that like The stakes are high even if the quality of play may not be as good as it has been in some recent years Well, the stakes are always high, right? And yeah, that's of course unfortunate that some of these quarterbacks aren't playing anymore But I think the stakes will be high and you know college football when we have a 12 team playoff I mean it won't quite be the same as it was this year But at least we'll have a lot fewer opt-outs to think about And that playoff is going to be a blast. I'm already excited to break down Those with you next year We're gonna dive into NFL week 15 here in just one second to get you ready for all the fun games But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast on that feed You can find right now a breakdown of Thursday night football between the Raiders and the Chargers via Tom Vecchio Breaking down his read on that game tomorrow of NFL player props It's an Anthony PL stuff JJ Zachary's and back with us and Austin Cass And I'll break down the sunday night football game between the Ravens and the Jaguars That'll be up on this feed on Saturday morning and also over on fan dual tv plus where you can find all of these shows Go to fan dual comm slash watch and log in with your fan dual account Or download the fan dual tv plus app on amazon fire apple tv or roku devices Score early this NFL season with fan dual america's number one sports book right now new customers Get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fan dual and kick off the nfl season fan dual official partner of the nfl must be 21 plus and president select states Fan dual is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas dark casino llc first online real money wager only $5 pregame money line wager required $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a travel bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan dual dot com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan New jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee and virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg dot org slash chat connecticut 1 809 win in indiana 1 805 22 4700 visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana Visit md gambling health dot org in maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia<PHONE_NUMBER> in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 7 supporter massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why or text open why in new york We're going to dig into that uh broncos versus lions game here in just one second But first ed i want to talk to you about a topic that does actually apply pretty heavily to that game because Those two teams are very different from what they were earlier on this year And you've talked before about how your college football model is very reactive to more recent games Wayne data they're more more heavily than earlier on the year And the nfl we've seen a lot of teams have ups and downs this year the dolphin started off hot have cooled off recently the broncos Opposite where they got trounced 70 to 20 and then have been a lot better recently so How do teams get handled in the model when they have those big gaps? They've had the big swings doesn't weigh things pretty heavily pretty pretty evenly across the entire year How does your model handle the handle things like that on the nfl side of things? My model definitely looks at season long averages to rate nfl teams In a league with strong regression to mean i do think that is the way to go My model has been pretty successful looking at spreads over the past I don't know six seven eight years So I I definitely do believe in it. I think miami is is pretty interesting because You know the defense should be getting better. They were in the bottom five, which is completely unexpected with You know adding big fangio as the dc. He is considered one of the coordinators that actually do matter and So and you've seen them getting better. They have a healthy jaylen ramsey. They are performing better maybe not the last few drives against tennessee, but um, so You know that is definitely a team where i'm like, yeah, I might be off a little bit Uh, I might be underrating them a little bit. I am off market with them on the jets, but I actually think that's because The jets are a lot better with zack wilson kind of weird to say so but Yeah, miami is certainly a team that I think you need to be like Oh, well, I think the season long numbers are underrating them a little bit. I think they are the exception We'll get into denver in the next section because I think their situation is completely different From from miami, but in general the idea for me. I tend to lean on season long averages I think that is different from what the market does, but I do think that is one of the reasons my number Find value I do the same thing as you where I think it's it's better to take those those longer term views of things after accounting for injuries because injuries like If it's an injury that explains why there have been ups and downs. That's one thing but for like A lot of teams. That's not the case now for the dolphins maybe you could make that pitch because their entire offensive line is now hurts like you could make that pitch for them but like for some teams it's variance and in the nfl I know strength of schedule is not as Big of a gap in the nfl as it is in college football But like there are still ebbs and flows to teams that you faced and I think that does matter Quite a bit So I think that the right way to handle things personally is the same way that you do where We take the full season into account the nfl as a game of small samples I don't want to make the smith the sample smaller unless I get a more relevant sample and that means primarily injuries or like Dramatic scheme changes like I had to handle the cowboys different because They shifted this very passive approach I think it's worth it to Shift them because that's a scheme change a conscious scheme change Sure I'd rather change for that than change because the team happened to get hot in a couple of plus matchups So I think that to me is a key thing Did something tangible change if yes focus on the smaller sample Rob Pizzolo talked about that on your podcast where he's okay with small samples if they're a more relevant sample But I think for a lot of situations, it's more so variance than a legitimate shift in the way things are occurring Right for sure and rob was of course mixing in watching with games And the watching of the games was a big factor in whether he said hey, this is a relevant sample Um, this is what I should be paying attention to I can deal with smaller sample size or Yeah, they look kind of like crap the numbers aren't necessarily confirming what I see so Let's not do that I agree Okay, so let's talk about a game where this is all very relevant begin things off on Saturday night between the Broncos and the Lions are right now Lions are four and a half point favorites and the total is 47 and a half at ed Lions are struggling recently Broncos playing a lot better at least getting better results Do you see the Lions bouncing back here to cover at home? Yeah, this moved Which is unfortunate. Yeah, I think this is a pretty good, uh by low spot on Detroit look the defense might suck They've they've been kind of slowly sliding and a lot of my numbers and that is definitely a concern I think they're just playing bad right now. I think they're probably You know, not a bottom five unit If they can be closer to the NFL mean where they were earlier this season I I still think this is a super bowl contending team because the offense is healthy They are a top five unit and that is the most important and the most predictive thing in the NFL But let's talk about the Denver Broncos. So they are six and one in their last seven games, but You know, you talked about hey, should we upgrade them? No, because you got to look at the context of these games, right? Like so, who did they play? They got Dorian Thompson Robinson and PJ Walker against Cleveland Both of those are now riding the pine behind 38 year old Joe Flacco They got to face Josh Dawes with Minnesota who is now the backup to Nick Mullins And last week they got a lot of Easton stick against the Charters when when Herbert went down So when you adjust for that, which I'm actually doing now all of my passing Success rates are now specific to a quarterback. And so that is actually kind of It's kind of interesting right because Green Bay's defense doesn't look as good when you take out the Brett ribbon game Actually, I think it's back in there because I had enough data with another game for Ripon to If it's a lone game where quarterbacks played even though if it's like, you know, 30 past attempts I'll throw it out because there's no means for comparison But I think Ripon's in there. So anyways, that's an example And so when you look at like what the Broncos are doing, it's it's, you know, they haven't exactly faced the best Not even the best in the NFL, but the best that these teams have to offer And then, you know, you also got to look at like some of these turnover numbers So they're plus four against Kansas City in a win. They had worse success rate in yards They're plus three against Buffalo And another one win plus three against Minnesota a game that they'd barely squeaked by And then plus two against Cleveland. So big time for alert With the Denver team, I think they are playing well.  I think they are below NFL average on both sides of the ball I think it's a pretty decent spot for Detroit. I liked it obviously better at minus four. I have it about Detroit by about five and a half points So not a ton of value, but but I do think that Detroit will play better and I think I think Denver's front I agree with you across the board with this one I have the lines here by nearly a touchdown in this game in large part because I'm doing it the same with you on the Denver side of things But also I think that Detroit has kind of had some funkiness the way things worked out for them Frank Ragnar, their center missed that Chicago Bears game. So like I had a lot of bears Defense in daily fantasy that week because it's like, okay, it's them on the road playing outdoors. No center I think that made a lot of sense. So like I like to do things in terms of like how you play relative to expectations They didn't really fall that far short of expectations in that game They had a lot of fourth down stuff that went against them in that game And I love their aggressiveness on fourth down just didn't break in their favor that time. So I feel like Detroit is being Underrated a bit right now because of more recency bias and Under performances in key spots like on Thanksgiving and stuff like that But I haven't seen enough out of them to be like Super super concerned about their long-term outlook defensively sure But cj Gardner Johnson now might be back next week Which is I thought he was done for the year So I guess I was kind of surprised to see that he might be back next week or begin practicing next week So honestly like my long-term outlook for the Lions Hasn't changed that much like yeah the defense sucks. That's very very true But I think the offensive bounce back. I agree with you where Denver is a bit fluky So I think it's good spot to lay the four and a half. I got the four earlier on this week I think four and a half still enough value to justify buying Detroit there Yeah, absolutely. And I feel like uh, you know, we were we were kind of talking about Detroit as a Super Bowl contender They've dropped off a little bit Dallas is like leaping into that conversation I think in a couple weeks, we might drop Philly out of that conversation Uh, so, uh, you know, it's a food situation San Francisco is definitely at the top but It's gonna be fun heading down the stretch Well, even San Francisco had that time where people were out of them so, you know before their bi-week when Trent Williams is out Steve a Samuel is out like people were out of them too So there have been a lot of ebbs and flows the NFC this year Let's talk about that team you alluded to the Dallas Cowboys going on the road to take on the Buffalo bills We're right now spread is one and a half and the total is meaty at 50 and a half For this game bills kept their playoff wins actually boosting them a lot last week with that win over Kansas City Yeah, but the money line for this game has tightened a bit during the week So some action on the cowboys. How do you see this game playing out in? Yeah, I think I think it's a pretty interesting one. I still believe in Buffalo We talked about how their offensive metrics are good Turnovers have definitely been an issue and probably got the oc fired Um, but again, let's I I really want to focus on the pass defense because it's just all over the place The 30th in my passing success rate after I adjust for opposition Um, which is terrible. They are 13th in my adjusted yards for pass attempt, which is Probably where they are. They're actually the sixth best cover grade overall by pff and That requires a little bit context because tree avius white isn't playing But, you know, toran johnson has a coverage grade of 74. That's really good and a fellow average is about 60 He's on the injured list, but hopefully he'll play a suble douglas. They traded from green bay. He has an 84 That is obviously good probably a little bit of small sample size because I think that's only the games in which he's played with buffalo but I mean he he's been Really good player since green bay. Yeah brought him off the scrap heap however Whether it was last year or the year before and then christian benford has pff grade of 71. I mean that that's three corners that By a metric that I trust look pretty good. So I I think you we can trust that they're at least Um, at least an afl average in in terms of the defense, obviously, you know they could use a little bit of help on more on the the pass for our side eponess is on the The injured list and von miller is not playing and and never really was good for them this year I have buffalo by about two points. So I'm pretty on market on this uh I'm definitely kind of interested in buffalo minus one and a half Most of the rest of the market is is a little bit higher there. Uh, they get this at home the house has been really good, but um You know, I still think there's some questions with that team. So, uh Definitely lean towards buffalo here. Yeah, I did take the cowboys money line when it was plus 116 It's now plus 110. So that's shortened a bit and enough where it's like Less of a value now than it was before but the you mentioned part of the concern I have ed with doing that was The cowboys are on the road and they are a dome team and they've had their pretty big offensive search since their buy week Uh, it's a seven game sample, but five of those seven games that come at home now One of those road games was that game against philadelphia where they played really really well. Um And I thought that they were very impressive in that game But I'm seeing the same thing with you with the bills where it's like that defense hasn't really fallen off Like I've expected to fall off. I know that success rate numbers are bad But like you're talking about the coverage grades like I still think they've played decently well overall despite The poor success rate. I did think the chiefs moved the ball pretty well against them on sunday despite the fact They scored to 17 points there. So Not sure how to interpret that part, but I like the cowboys here. I like their past heavy approach I like how they've been playing things there. My concern is that they've done a lot of that High efficiency stuff that my model adores while playing inside and now they go outside Take on buffalo wind speeds here at nine miles per hour. Nothing concerning there. So it's not crazy. Yeah Yeah, no, that's totally fine, but it's more so like I I don't know if it's like this this bias getting back to when when dak was like young they had Huge home road splits back then hasn't been as dramatic recently But like so I do still like the cowboys I feel good about that bet that I made but like that always does Conserve me at least a bit watching a team that has been shredding recently suddenly go outdoors to play on the road against in a you know somewhat unique environment buffalo Yeah, for sure. I mean I I think uh Yeah, we'll see. I mean What I've been seeing in Dallas is they they kind of started the season not not having dak throw deep Yeah, that's completely changed over over the last five weeks. So it has been a pretty explosive offense Can they get it done against a you know, a better than average buffalo defense? We'll see All right, let's finish up here with the sunday night football game That is the ravens at the jaguars. We're right now vandal sportsbook the ravens three and a half point favorites only minus one or two on that three and a half right now for the ravens total in this game Is 42 and a half and last weekend we saw trevor loren's play through his ankle injury Yep, I thought it looked okay in that game like he was running around a bit But like wasn't as accurate as you'd expect for trevor loren's tough tough defense obviously there But now facing another tough defense at home. Can the jags cover here as three and a half point home underdogs? Yeah, my numbers certainly like it. I have bolton more by 1.6 points and it's not surprising my numbers have like jacksonville all year They are at home And you're getting them in and out of division games So it's hard to make even a team as good as bolton more, you know more in the three-point favorite and my model doesn't Kind of got to talk about jacksonville's defense. It hasn't really been good the past two games Jake browning had 54 passing success rate against them And then last week joe flacco had about 46 passing success rate the nfl average is 42 Percent so so that hasn't been good. They dropped to 17th in my adjusted passing success rate Interesting note on flacco, right? I mean is he playing to make the hall of fame this year No, I always I always have this conversation and my new york giants friends swear that elie manning is a hall of fame quarterback because of two postseason runs and joe flacco clearly has one postseason run Where they ended up winning the super bowl He had that miracle where the Denver safety somehow let a guy get behind him, right? And now he he's actually playing pretty well And 38 years old. He's got the best defense in the nfl Anyways, I was just hoping to make you laugh a little bit. It worked Jo flacco in the hall of fame But anyways back to jacksonville. I mean I think uh Yeah, oh the other thing I wrote down about this game You know lamar jackson doesn't have mark angers the second game I had a 44 success rate last week against the rams You know and and the rams are pretty much the definition of nfl average on on defense at least by my numbers 6.9 yards per pass attempt, which is better than the nfl average of six ish So, you know a pretty good performance I'm really interested to see what he can do with probably without a top target Although you can make the argument for ze flowers. I think I think flowers actually probably had more Targets when they were both in the lineup So that's definitely something I'm keeping an eye on I'm not too interested in betting against baltimore. Although probably the way I would mean is with jacksonville Yeah, the plus three and a half on the jags right now is minus 120 if you want to go That route that route and ride with ed's numbers looking back at last week in that rams game for the ravens It looked like a lot of broken coverages which I was happy with I had uh, I had lamar and dfs And like was you know, I had odell had Isaiah likely as well But I think that likely touchdown was a broken coverage and I believe one one of the odell long catches was too and Broken coverages are not really sustainable pretty fluky See that occur. So it is a downgrade for them with no mark andrews losing a Very good football player is never a good thing for an offense I am curious how things look for them Given that they're more familiar with todd munkin's scheme. I love todd munkin. Um, so do you want to see how it goes? I have this but at 3.8 favor baltimore. So Pretty even thus making it a stay away from me. I think we'll have some pretty fun talking props for that tomorrow on the When I'm filling in for tom vecchio, but like I think it's gonna stay away from my numbers for the ravens and jags, but I believe I agree with you. We're having faith in the jags overall is good and like Right, they're missing cam robinson. They'll have tackle missing christian kirk, but they've been missing Key pieces throughout the entire year basically. So I don't think we want to downgrade them too much based on that Especially the laurence getting a week healthier on that injured ankle Yeah, for sure and and it was really good to see them kind of come out You know, especially when I have a ticket for jacksonville to win the division, which you know still looking pretty good But uh, it was good to see, you know, we don't we don't want to necessarily see cj bathered or uh No, uh frank What's the third stringer nathan roark the pre season superhero. Yeah um adam turnoff loves Nathan roark he thinks uh My buddy adam over at razz, uh, I think thinks roark is uh, is a is a Is a solid nfl backup. I just don't want to watch cj bathered That's the reason I like nathan roark is because I just don't want to watch cj bathered I've seen enough of that between his big 10 days the san francisco days I've seen enough like I want nothing to do with that So give me laurence or give me roark or give me death at this point cj bathered or mitch trubisky um flacco You'd rather watch flacco That'll be interesting to see what you think about that in a couple weeks. So, okay I know that the ages here are different But like remember when will levin started began starting for the for the titans is like, okay He probably sucks, but at least he'll like throw a deep. That's joe flacco Like right he probably sucks, but I'll throw a deep. I'd rather watch a deep ball that might fall in complete than like other stuff But but stufansky's letting him throw deep, right? Like yeah, they're throwing in a very high rate the past two weeks He is leading fully into it. That is not what I would expect when you bring a 38 year old I think it's because their run game is awful too Like I think they know that their run game is awful. So we might as well like chuck it down field and see what happens Yeah, it's interesting. I mean you could you could have done that with walker dtr too, right? But yeah Yeah, yeah, it's At least he's not boring. That's that's my evaluation of joe flacco is at least he's not boring And what's any kind of the definition of boring last year with the jets? He's like, ah flacco starting the first four games So I hated him because like I Do I admit that I kind of I used to like I like zach Wilson coming out So like I rooted against flacco because I was like, okay, I need wilson to look good in comparison to flacco Um, I can say that because it was documented like it's on the website that I liked zach wilson coming out So I can at least say it. Um You know can't hide from my bad takes. Um, so I was rooting against flacco and his efficiency numbers It was actually very similar to the to it's like now with the browns where His efficiency numbers like epa numbers were terrible, but like he was throwing a deep. They had a very high pass rate You know I'd rather watch them chuck it deep with flacco than have drone forward, you know go for 3.5 yards per carry So, you know, it's not the worst thing in the world. Not the best by any means, but I'd rather I'd pick flacco over bethurt at least if that's the the bar. Yes to clear then sign me up all right Alrighty that is all that we have here for this week on covering the spread a lot more flacco discussion I'm sure a lot of people expected coming into this one all that game against the bears actually isn't terrible Um On sunday as well. Ed. What is going on for you this week over the power ink? I had a great conversation with ryan newton of four for four on the podcast He has been doing really well with tackle props was very generous in actually giving us three On the show, uh, I I think his analysis is actually even more interesting the way he digs into it So check that out the football analytics show is the name of the podcast and you can get that wherever your podcasts wherever you get your podcast And then uh, check out my free sports betting email newsletter If you're looking for action on any given weekend five no get saturday is my answer for you. I curate the best tips out there Uh, so check that out at the power rank dot com All right in the ryan newton conversation again is over at the football analytics show find ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis. You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and follow fan dual research on twitter At fan dual research back with you once again tomorrow talking nfl play art props with jjzak recent epl With austin cast then i'll have a breakdown of the ravens and jags coming your way on saturday morning This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network


Good morning traders. Can you see me or see my screen and also hear me? if you can just in the Advanced webinar Chatroom say yes Okay. All right. Thanks guys. Thank you David Eighth trader. Thank you. Okay ready to go. All right, so Welcome to the the book map Advanced education live trading webinar. It's live analysis Monday Tuesday and Friday at 10 a.m So and then we have our live trading with Jay trader and Scott Pulsini on Wednesdays and Thursdays at 10 a.m Now this analysis here though. It's all forward-looking. We will go over some hindsight just to make a point but the goal here is Part of our educational process number one is we have the educational course that's online It starts with basic market mechanics, which is essential to understand then it goes into market structure and then strategies and setups and then finally advanced correlations and Confluences so a pretty complete education that you get there through the course But then how do you how do you use it? Well, that's what these live analysis webinars are for so we'll read the live market And we'll give insight to where we think price will move next or may move next Based on our order flow analysis So kind of you know put it put it to the test so you can apply what you've learned from the course We will go through different setups. We will go through different strategies and trade management considerations But it's really about reading the order flow and then we have the You know live analysis or I'm sorry live trading from J. Trader stocks and Scuplecini futures trader so that then you can learn from the pros What they're gonna cover their specific trading strategies And how they look at the market how they manage their trades etc So very complete education we feel we've just enhanced that by now we have Tom be in the Streaming as well here in discord. I he started yesterday guys So I know a lot of you saw it and and he'll do it again today Likely just after the webinar. He'll get up and running here. So look forward to that And you know, we're offering more and more services for you guys This is a really we're you know, we want to build a really robust trading community and Lifestyle in here, that's what it's all about. So, you know get get help from many others here ask others questions ask us You know ask Tom and learn along the way here and And you know, I just view it as a win-win. All right, so let's go through the risk disclosures And we'll jump into the live markets here. All right The general disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered Specific investment advice nor recommendations. Okay, very important to understand Risk disclosure trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All right, and let's jump in and Look at what's happening here in the markets. I just want to show you guys if you haven't seen it already You'll see it when when it when it starts up here when Tom is streaming so Let's see here. We'll just kind of make this a little bit bigger. So, you know, here we are in the Advanced webinar here in the chat room and then the streaming is down here Tom is Here so you'll click you'll see Tom when he's live in here You'll see the live button like this and then that you'll join here And you can already see some guys are just hanging out in here already waiting for Tom so anyway yeah, we're just growing more and more and You know hope to offer a lot of different channels anything that provides value for you guys That's really the key. All right, so That's what we want to do and and and build this kind of Community and support for you guys for everybody I just how can it not be a win-win anyway? Let's jump in let's take a look at the the S&P here and what's going on We're gonna start with the bigger picture And and then drill down. So we saw a huge sell-off yesterday Okay. Now. This is what we drew on the daily chart, you know We've been looking at it for several weeks and Had this kind of box here drawn up of where we think buyers will start to come in and you can see that Right in here. Well a couple different areas We were looking for them and they they certainly came in One led to all-time highs the other one was a nice pullback, but look where it went here Okay, now this is we're gonna use the same concepts in here in terms of market structure okay, so You know price went back up into these areas here We see some previous wicks in this area here and we also look for this is a you know a structure up here Kind of test the bottom of it cannot find more buyers sellers come in hand over fist They break the trend line. They go back down into these areas here You can see the close here and then it kind of went back up bounced a little bit Yesterday, we got our follow-through sellers to the downside and they broke all of these lows here Where we found buyers previously Okay, now what do we think? We're gonna go through different scenarios in the bigger picture here First then we're gonna look at book map and look at some of the order flow within some of these bigger picture scenarios looking for the potential move and It's these scenarios that it's really important to go through And then when we go through those scenarios outline them And then we're gonna kind of choose one. It's like, okay. Well, we're not getting the sellers We're looking for we're looking for buyers. They're coming in. All right. We're looking for it to go to this area And that that will be the read All right. So in fact, you can see that even in the daily chart here We sold off and we've already come back and kind of retested the bottom of this box here It just means this this swing here is what's what's key. It's not the box It's just the swing here and that's very typical. You'll see it again and again. You'll see it in book map All right, so we've habit on the hourly chart here in the middle You can see we've this has been a big consolidation range now watch in here. We had a big sell-off yesterday Okay, where's price going to go on this daily chart? Boy, I mean if it continues on down I mean, we're looking for like, you know down into like maybe a high volume node of this range Probably somewhere around here around 43 50 But buyers are really down here, you know around 43 10 or even, you know Way down here at this at these swing lows here 42 50 so If sellers continue on Then that's what we're looking for here. So I am also Really curious to see this is just a beautiful move like you can see we're already breaking the low here We're seeing sellers come in on this hourly chart here I'm very curious to see if we just see like get everyone going south In short in here and then we're going to look at icebergs We're looking at the order flow and look for a potential reversal and a quick one And then maybe a move all the way back up into some of these areas up here around 45 14 or so 1514 anyway, you know, just it'll likely kind of kind of continue on This is a strong move to the downside. Even the pullback in here has been very shallow It has not been strong, but that's where we're kind of looking for maybe a Get people, you know going the wrong direction here And then start to move it back up above these swing this swing here around 44 76 And then looking for the fuel to the fire here of everyone getting it wrong And getting stopped out on the way back up Even if we come back up in here, we're still in a downtrend on this no question about it on this hourly chart Even this daily chart here. We close below this these swings here. Okay, so that's also bearish bigger picture good question if we look at a lot more data in here, are we still kind of I Mean this is this is is broke the pattern, right? So we're down low and accepting lower here So that's that but if we look at like a weekly and we and we kind of zoom out We're gonna see let's go to a weekly here. We're probably likely still in an uptrend let's take a look here daily and weekly This is just so inconvenient This rhythmic it's nice that they they finally offered it but Yeah, I mean on the weekly chart, we're still in an uptrend They even with all of this action in here You guys can see I mean we did not break below some of these areas in here So we have to be very aware of what's going on here in terms of the trends Instead of being very reactive and jumping in just because like wow, you know, look at these big red candles coming in here So let's go back to the Daily Okay All right, so let's let's jump into book map now 15 minute chart over here on the right-hand side You see the sellers coming in right? So we're down below the swing here 43 a 44 30 Let's jump into book map and see what's going on and We're looking forward to a few different things here. Look at the high liquidity getting filled all the way through here here Pulled here actually it got it filled here filled here. It filled here Okay, and let's look for where more more liquidity is on the on the bid as well These are the major areas already if we zoom out Yeah, down here around 4400 and then we have around eight or seven or eight down here as well There's some liquidity so What we want to look for now is Also our icebergs. We've we've really seen some great You know massive iceberg fills here on the bid Over the last several weeks for you know a larger move to the upside And we're just trying to gauge here and see and understand The amount of selling pressure and what happens with it Okay, so they're they're absorbing on on the bid or they're getting filled here on the bid And is there still more selling pressure? Okay, are they still getting filled at lower lows? At some point we're looking for exhaustion on the sell side And we'd be looking for buyers to start to come in and where would they likely move it? Okay Well, the first thing we look for is a break of structure and this is our first structure to break right now And it's already breaking it. Okay, so let's see if they can go up a little bit higher here Or this is gonna be a false break breakout as possible as well. I'm looking for them to come up a little higher here 35 is looking pretty good Just looking for a retest back to about 35 or so and Let's see if we can continue. So let's zoom in a little closer. And yeah, it's a false break down or break out So let's see if these sellers try to pick it up more and trade into 4420 liquidity down here Okay sellers, you should be able to hit it. They're on the bid in front of it though Yeah, see see the reaction to that bid here and we found some buyers And this is where the order book can be really insightful there. There's even more here Okay, so let's see them reach back up to the see if they can get back up to 32 and The swing here. Okay. We need to see these buyers at 30. They're gonna do this Okay buyers at 30. Let's see if we can get it or 29 Yeah, there they go. All right 32 looking for 32 Okay, and then let's see if we can get up up to 35 here Okay, and that would be the first kind of target here and I'm just looking at kind of a you know Where it kind of dropped from here, but I'm also looking at the high volume node and they these are responsive buyers trying to trade it back into You know about a previous value area here. Okay. Thanks, David looking at Tarantino Tarantino trading trading here came up with a Tesla looking at Tesla here. Let's we can jump over. I think I have it up No, I don't I can add it though No, the buyers buyers couldn't couldn't make it here. They start to exhaust out here Everything's looking pretty good in here And then you can see like they just it starts to kind of peter out and they can't even make the swing to Or the move to 32 up here It opens the door now for sellers to hit the bid They've already come down here We can look at oil as well. It's down significantly. Okay. Okay, so let's see these these sellers that yeah I'm looking for them to push it over here. They got it. They're still in control I I didn't go through that element here. Where did the buyers and sellers? I mean who's in control in these moves and and and reading the pressures in in this market and they're just going with that trend and tons of selling in here It's not the easiest read in here because they I mean we know that they're getting they've gotten filled In this area here here in here and we see the buying icebergs as well There's still more selling pressure. So we're down into our 20 level here and It's continuing Okay, next level is you know back down to our kind of seven or eight level and then forty four hundred I don't know if anyone see any icebergs yesterday large iceberg Purchases at the end of the day You know at the lows of the day yesterday It's almost like we should have that as a kind of maybe in the in the in the in discord here Getting a feel for number of icebergs in the bigger picture. All right. So anyway, we're gonna go back into market structure and read it sellers still remain in control here. We continue to Trade lower Yeah, I was kind of pulling for those buyers in here, this is where it kind of exhausted out and then the sellers came in In here that it's still possible for the move But once we start to see the sellers come in here below on some size, they're gonna move it and and they did and Yeah, not not the It was kind of pulling for these guys just thinking that this might be enough of A move below here to get people on the hook and then come back up into the range back here Okay, and that nothing nothing shaken there still looking though for that scenario it might happen later in the day but Looking for those responsive buyers here. Okay, David. What are you looking at here? Let's see the Brent Brent Kachuba from Spock Ammo saying the 20 billion of options OPEX on Tesla, okay All right, let's see these buyers lift it back up to 44 20. Let's see if they can do that Just a pullback here. Now. This is a countertrend But we're looking for the pullback to here. This is where the significant event took place So I'm looking for a pullback to that area There it is. That was quick. Okay, that's it though. We're just looking for the pullback slow computer Beautiful iceberg purchase in there as well. Let's zoom in. What was the size here? About a thousand. Okay, there we go. Let's continue Morning Tom Okay, well, we've gotten our move back to 25 here and that became the high volume note 35 was our previous kind of high volume note in here But it's turned into 25 now All right, it's actually way back up here From the beginning of the session here. So what is this area? This is around 60 44 60 Okay, we're even even though we've broken through some of these areas here We're looking at the buying pressure come in and we're still looking at market structure Sellers are still in control. Okay, this buying is pretty good But sellers are still in control and this is the structure that they need to break And to move price away from quickly and that would be in here We're gonna watch that area closely and see what the order flow looks like around this area here Okay, so we're looking at a few different scenarios here. Okay, lots of buying Maybe it like a kind of flag pattern, which just means that they were bullish in here It price did not drop and we're looking for the bulls to come in again And push it and that would be your flag pattern order flow is very simple within that pattern We're looking for lots of buyers here Order book to support it underneath them to pull up here on the offer and we're looking for our green dots Right now. We're looking for that that move above the swing here Okay, back to our 35 level that we're looking for over here Let's take a look here also as well Yeah, this is this could turn out really nicely here. It's possible We'll need to kind of wait and watch but let's see if we can get a move back up to we've already gotten the move to here 31 this swing on the 15 minute. I'd be looking for 42 up here To this little level here. Let's take a look at book map And if we can get even more buyers back up in there, we this we have that potential Scenario unfolding right now Okay, we'll have to take a look and we're looking for a lot of buying to come in Hey, they've got everyone on the hook sell side here And yeah, here's our flag pattern starting to unfold Okay, I'm sorry about that. I kind of missed missed that I was I wanted to cover like what this looks like in real time here And it's doing it. This is exactly what we were looking for lots of buying The kind of sideways consolidation. So this is you know, just meaning that this was strong And it's not going down much much further and then we find our buyers come in again And then here's our order book, right? We see the green dots. We see them on the bid at higher levels They didn't really pull the liquidity in here, but buyers cut right through it and came back up into high liquidity here at 40 40 and our move was to 42 right we just covered that Do we and we already got there? There it is. God, this is moving moving pretty fast anyway guys, does that make sense like I was a little kind of slow to kind of a Describe all of this in in real time, but that's what we were looking for and now now we're sticking with okay Well, we made it to 42 You know reduce your risk And you know move your stops up and then look for more follow-through here If and if we're gonna do it now we we're likely gonna get a pullback In some of these levels here and where would those pullbacks go to let's take a look Here is not a bad area kind of where it broke out from and we see liquidity coming in here around 3250 Okay, and let's see if if we get our pullback here Okay, or is this gonna be another pretty I mean this was a powerful move here. Do we get a powerful pullback? Okay, look at this also this little cluster area in here. It's not bad for a pullback as well Okay around 35 That's where you know, that's that previous target. We're looking for and it kind of struggled a little bit It kind of slowed down a little bit and then it broke out All right, so here's our pullback Hey, so we can start to anticipate some of these moves like this understanding the market structure understanding these areas here areas of breakout And areas where it kind of struggle a little bit and then broke out again Okay, now we got to go through another scenario as well since we are still bearish here In this in this move even this this is more of a pullback on this 15-minute chart here and It did it, you know now we're gonna see if we're gonna accept again lower Or are we gonna be able to trade through that 42 area here? And we're gonna look for some clues in here What that might look like? Okay, so yeah bouncing off of this area here. Okay, this is our pullback came to 30 liquidity here at 30 not 32 and you see the buyers come back in again Now we got to go through one more scenario in here. We've seen this so many times of Exactly this kind of pattern here Boy, this is strong buying though. Yeah, it looks like they're gonna continue on and and try to get back up into The next swing 50 here going for 50 and look at look at the the distinction here. Look at the buying coming in Hey watch watch some of these stops be triggered start to be triggered as well We should see some pretty big stop runs up here. Maybe above 50 But this this is what we're looking for. I mean, this is the kind of distinction We're looking for beautiful pullback to this area and and continuation Yeah, this is real real buying. I mean, I don't see many stops triggered in here Alan So, I mean, they're they're buying hand over fist here We see we saw it all started with this kind of really quick move here This was kind of odd to be honest It's usually this kind of quick move like this means that it's a retest and then look for the sellers to come back in And hit it lower typically This one followed through though Quick move and then more buying and they just kept buying Okay, we got it to 50. Okay, so and there you go, there's a target now, right now Do you want to stand in this? You know with this trade idea Well, maybe but I would suggest like, you know, it hit your target and You know reduce your risk It I'm sorry. I said suggest. I shouldn't say suggest. It's it's a consideration There are many considerations There's so many different ways to trade. I mean like if You're you only have one contract Yeah, look for that high probability move and and take your take your target get out look for the next one The next one would be another breakout potentially right here Right now look at that strong buying Okay, so we got to be kind of careful So you got to got to reduce your risk and it's all about taking the risk And trying to take less of it. Okay looking for something higher probability Okay, 60 level up here See if we can get up there Right nice be a nice pullback to 60 here and Pullback and I mean as I kind of this previous value area up here And we see the swings up here around 65 or 63. I guess Let's take a look at the cash open as well and just think about this Right. So, you know, we were kind of looking for this move earlier Maybe around here. It did one more hit to the downside And we're still open for these pullbacks here. Now. This is starting to turn into a much bigger move Okay, and the strength of the buying is is evident. Look at it Now, where could this go? I mean, yeah, we're looking for 60. We're just about at 60 Okay, here's your swing Now think about if they can get back up here as well. This is the cash open at 930 Move to the upside Okay, where would that target be would be 4,500 here if we get this strength and get the move back up above 40 This kind of a swing here from the cash open. I still don't see stops being triggered yet Do not see stop runs here So sellers that are in here like boy, I mean, they're they're feeling it And just thinking nah, I can't it can't get up here It can't it just can't do it right all of that selling yesterday I'll just move down to the downside today but you know We know that these guys got filled in here on the way down And we saw the icebergs as well And then we're looking for that strong buying and that continuation and looking at some of these patterns and the in the order flow Okay, so the moves back up the pullback and the continuation here Okay up at 60 pullback here Right look at the move here as well. Okay, these are really strong moves strong volume buyers taking control from this point on we're down here Okay, now that's easy in hindsight but You know, we were looking for it and Now what we're looking for Here is looking at the strength of these moves, which is still like, you know, lots of buying pull back lots of buying pull back And then still lots of lots of buying but look at it not quite as much Right, so we're starting to kind of slow down a little bit and You know, we have the potential for starting to go a little bit sideways here if we don't see the buyers come in here We're looking at that also the strength of these moves in here It's just not quite breaking out like it did before and it's still bullish though Let's see Alan lots of questions in here. So Well, what I mean by real buying is like I we know that They're not stops. Okay, and that that tells us something and what I'm what I mean by like You know trying to define it as as you know, real buying if if stops is not real, you know buying or selling It's just because like it's usually it means, you know, the market is puking or people are exiting their position So they're compelled to buy or sell due to they're getting squeezed and taking losses So they're not really entering the market So like like Scott, he'll look at, you know, the stop runs huge stop runs But again, like he'll look at the stop run and and then it is what's important is to understand after the stop run Hey, what happens? So if this was you know, you do see some stops in here Okay If you saw a big stop run here, but if you get buyers back up above here Hey, and then it's it's it's off to the races or at least back up to some of these test some of these swings and Yeah, in this case it's off to the races like you know, they're they're leaving these guys behind here Here's a stop run here. Okay into high liquidity Yeah, but what happened here? We're looking for it. We're looking for the potential move here and didn't unfold you know the market accepted lower below this our line here and then More selling came in more selling pressure Okay, even though there's a stop run here So the stop run is the thing to look for the event In in this case, but how did the market accept after that event? That's the key. So for just us reading market structure in here Let's not even look at what we're going to turn off everything except that's been an offer Okay, just looking at strength of move pullback strength of move Very shallow pullback, but where's the strength in the move here right here looks pretty good, but look at this This is not the same as this Okay, so we started to identify that in market structure Okay, so is it is it kind of a surprise that we're getting this pretty deep pullback now Even though this is still bullish here. This structure is still bullish Okay, where this will start to become bearish is when we get below this swing here And then maybe you can test back down to this swing here Okay, and we'll look for it now. We already broke the structure up here Okay, so this would be let me let me mark up the structures Okay, now this can and we're doing this here this kind of exercise here There's many different ways to look at the market structure. You might be looking at volume profile You might be looking at patterns like flags. Like I said Okay, we're just going to use these sideways consolidations And then look at the swings broken etc. Okay, and now we're into making a new structure here But we read the kind of just best bid and offer the way that it was breaking out up here that we might have the potential for this To start it was slowing down Okay, now what we want to look at is the next context And let's put the volume within that context All right, and there we go So buyers strong move buyers strong move more buyers at starting to see some selling in here Buyers look pretty good up here again, but pullback broke below the little swing here Not getting our buyers in here getting sellers here looking for that Then if we get our sellers down here looking for the move back We've gotten it and we were already even down to this kind of level here I'm looking for see if we get our buyers back in here again now. They write it right in here where we are Okay, so a little bit of a breakdown here Let's see if we get our buyers and looking for first just to move back up to 4450 Okay, looking for these buyers in here Sellers try to sell it in the smaller time frame to control here They took control here, but I'm looking for the bigger kind of picture here of where the buyers start to come in Okay, mostly mostly here this little point here at around 4430 Hey, but I'm also looking for them to cover here and buy back computer and kind of try to move back up here And they just they just did so so we're just looking for that pullback and we got it Okay, it's right. We're right back down to where we were but let's look at a little deeper here more insight Okay, another big iceberg here. This was how many? 600 or so alright, so this is a context of these two elements starting to understand that Structure and volume within it. Okay, look at exhaustion here. What if we get sellers here? Okay, I'm looking for then for this kind of 40 level here to trade And then might pull back to our 32 level Okay, that we marked up here Just really simple stuff Structure and volume Okay, now we can go through setups in here as well and what that might look like Okay, lack of lack of selling here. We got to see the big selling down here for it to move away we're back up here and Nothing shaken up here either. No no buyers here likely come right back down to the bottom of the range So what we're looking for within this structure here is buyers or sellers at the extremes to try to move it away from the structure Okay, here we go. So we should get our buyers here. They should be able to lift it back up to about 55 And then maybe they can bring it back up to the swing here at 65 Point of control is here at 57 that would be another area to test So these would be responsive buyers trading back to here 50 57 58 okay, just two elements here. All right, let's add the third element on which is the heat map Okay, where are those buyers and sellers? Where's the supply and the demand? Well, they're up here at 60 Okay, that's where the supply is also 75 Hey on the bid there at 42 all we did was get up back to back up to the top of the range here Still I still like this idea to move back to about 57 58. Let's see Okay, so bottom of this range. Let's see if we get our buyers in here Let's see if the bid starts to light up. Let's see if we get our dots and let's see them pull on the offer here That would be the scenario Jump in and then looking for the move back up. Okay, we got the bid here We got some vine not a whole lot, but the bid looks good. It's just this is not high probability It just does not look that good Okay, so we can we can we can scratch that one Okay, we wait and look for the distinction. Okay, here's another retest back up here. Let's see if we get them now Okay, and that would be higher probability if we get them now We'd be we'd be looking for it to break. All right. Here we go. Let's see it Here are the buyers quick move up here. We've got to see those big green dots break it here okay And let's see it. Let's see the let's see them pull here. There we go Okay, still I don't know about the probability here. Yeah, it's better, but I still don't like the buying up here but uh You know, we want we're looking for that distinction is Not bad. It's not bad here starting to do it. Okay, let's see if they can reach 60 here See I just on this move here. I would not be willing to risk We're looking for it to move here to 60 But uh, yeah Just not the hot not a higher probability move here is what it looks like this over here look much better to me Much better even this pullback to here great, you know get back in Um, and we can go over, uh, you know, where to consider getting in and um You know start to go through some of that if you guys want in more detail But you know, like I said, but there's many different ways to do it Uh and to look at changes in the order flow Or many different ways we'll look at the order flow read the order flow But many different ways to manage the trade is what I mean All right, let's see. Let's see if we can get more buyers yet again looks pretty good to 60 here. They go Yeah, I like it looks pretty good Uh, let's see here. I'm sorry Alan. I didn't get to many of your questions here. Um Meaning oh for the if they're real buying like a meaning will it continue? Well, it depends on if they continue to buy Uh and and be consistent with it. See, I mean, they're continuing to buy now. Look at look at look at the dots up here You know, it's looking better, right? So the move to 60 is already unfolded Okay, what you know, it just didn't look that great in here, uh for for that buying At that moment, okay, we are getting the follow-through though So I filtered out a a winner here Okay, however, uh This is what we're looking for it just wasn't worth risking In my in my mind Again, these aren't trade recommendations. This is reading the order flow That's our main goal in here. There we go. Look at that buying there Great. Okay. Let's see if they they should be able to reach up to 75 here. They want to move it It looks like there's some buying pressure behind here Looking for some stops. Where that where are the stops? I do not see any stops being triggered yet likely it's above Here the swing and we should see some really nice stops up here And yeah, people are feeling the pain and the squeeze right now. No doubt Hey guys, so look at look at the bigger picture here. This is really important to cover here I'll get to you guys questions. Uh, sorry Alan. Um, I'm backlogged on your on your many questions here, uh, but the um The bigger picture here in the read here Is and and and we outline the scenario here first Even on the daily Uh, and then looking looking at the hourly And then looking at the 15 minute and then looking for pullbacks to here at 30 42 Uh, and then if can there be more buying and then we're looking for the move back up here Okay, and we're just about at 75 Okay, now we should see a nice stop run up here No question and look at the look at the even the hourly here. This is strong I would imagine they're going to try to continue to move it back up to about Well 4500 or maybe uh 45 15 here But for that to move like we're we're just going to read the order flow And look for that higher probability move Okay, there's our move to 75 Uh stops trying to starting to kind of show a bit Okay, the the high liqueur is up here at 4500 Okay, I'm going to cover Doug's question here because uh, I I know how to answer it easily. Um As you guys know Doug is uh, he did a pro trader webinar Uh, and uh, he's looking at gamma spot gamma levels Uh, you might want to go check out um, what he's looking at because he's looking he too is looking for es reversal Okay, so uh, uh, yeah read Doug's comment in there And uh ask Doug if you have any any questions about what what he does But uh, you know many different ways to look at this I know tom is going to cover it, uh when the webinar stops here So uh, uh looking forward to that Uh, and uh tom tom will be uh, uh, you know, he'll be going through this in detail I'm sure okay, and get his take on it Uh One of the things I've said in here kind of many many times over, uh Is um, you know, we've got a really nice network of traders in here With a lot of experience so The book map advanced education, uh that we provide we're trying to just um Create a foundation for you guys, uh in this education That's the goal And then with that from that foundation you can really build, uh, whichever way you want to go so This was actually my experience in in uh in book map when I first came to book map was uh, you know Oh, yeah, I looked at volume profile. I looked at Elliott wave. I looked at candlestick patterns. I looked at, you know, other other types of patterns looked at, you know, different volume studies like it Just went on and on and on point and figure Charles, I mean We've all done this Okay Was lacking for me though was understanding basic market mechanics Uh, and that's why I really, uh, encourage you to watch part one of our educational course Uh, and then you can build upon that Okay, come back forget all your other previous education forget about market profile Understand what makes the market move? And look for those moves to take place Then bring your market profile back in Okay, or your pattern trading back in Hey, it's just and then you're gonna you're gonna it's it's just going to be such higher probability Uh because the transparency is here in book map And then go through start to go through scenarios Like what you know, we were looking for this scenario even before Even as price was going down. We're looking for this scenario Okay, and this one unfolded Let's see here. All right. So anyway enough on that. Let's see, uh, Alan. What do you have to say? um Yeah, I mean It's I would say don't uh You know just because it's um It's the after an order flow event Is what's key? How did the what did the market feel about that event? Right. Same way that scott looks at stops and icebergs. Okay. The event took place Right now what now what happened? So even though it's a stop run or even like you see a book sweep Uh of of an area doesn't mean it's going to reverse at all It could accept lower and then continue to sweep the book lower Right. That's what we want to ascertain And we got to go through those scenarios. If that happens then what would it look like? Well, we look for buyers above that sweep Okay, uh, and it'd be kind of like this right in here If this were a sweep, I'm sure it is. Um Uh in here, there's going to be some books weeping and then buyers are back up above it here Even bounced off of this area and back and and and then back up So that that's the answer, uh, Alan to those questions. I think And then you know, you look for the scenario to unfold but then manage your risk Ignition algos. Yeah, even with ignition algos like uh, you It's it's uh great to see Uh and um, but we want to see if it's successful or not. What's the reaction to that ignition algos? What does the market feel about it? This is why the ignition algos a part of it, but it's a subset Just like stops and icebergs. They're a part of it, but it's a subset order flow rules first all main uh Okay, David. So this will you you wrote this a while back, but uh, most most of the uh Tech stocks are seriously lower was filled and up Yeah, I mean I I just Even though we have some inflation and and in some of these kind of bigger picture, you know fundamentals or Whatever it is. I mean There there's nothing really like uh Uh, I I just think it's kind of advertising to get people to go short and then try to trade it right back up You know sell that story sell that story at the open get people going short here. Here they are absorbing on the bid Uh, and then here's the move right now. Let's see them continue now They've they've they've breached the uh high for the day here in the cash session already Okay, and we start to see the selling coming in here now. Oh great. Okay. Fabio. This is your first uh advanced webinar excellent Yeah, you know I I'm I don't want to Uh I don't know how you know, I'm I'm kind of getting I'm kind of getting a feedback like For years we've been we've been doing it this way, but you know, maybe maybe we should kind of change it up a little bit um The what I've tried to do In our education what we've tried to do here is provide that foundation a really rich rich foundation Then you can take it any way that you want You want to take it toward volume profile. You want to take it toward uh, elliot wave Or you know, uh, range bound trading Whatever whatever your strategy might be look at the order flow Okay, even candlestick pattern trading like we can we can uh, take a look at I I love doing this exercise I'm not the biggest fan of candlestick patterns, but um I did they just fail all the time I I feel Uh, but we you know start to look at it. Okay. Well, yeah here. We have some wicks, right? And we got a close above uh these wicks here that looks pretty good uh, and um Yeah, so if that is what you trade candlestick patterns Then you'd be looking for a move back up and this would probably be your buy up in here Right and do you see volume in here that supports that move? Yeah, you do Okay, is the order book supporting it? Yes, it is underneath here. So this should confirm your candlestick pattern Okay, you might even be able to get in, uh, you know at some of these lower areas here Uh, this would be more of a pullback even with your candlestick pattern This would be more of a pullback to some of these swings up here Right and this five minute candlestick Okay, so uh, uh, you know looking now, what would you be looking for down here? You'd be looking for exhaustion on the sell side And buyers start to come in And then you'd be looking for the move back up into these previous previous wick areas here All right Okay, Doug. I'll take a look at the spy. Sure. All right. Anyway Look for the for the order book here to support this as well Like on this move down in the candle and even in this candlestick pattern. Yeah, great. Okay sellers, you know Sideways, you know more selling back down into these areas here buyers, okay Put together just these two elements alone Look at all of this absorption or all of this on the sell side here or our buy side. They're they're getting filled This is where it's just going to help your candlestick pattern So simply Right. So this is another trading method So whatever method you're trading look for the order flow to support it And yeah, I just uh feel that that can really really be beneficial for you So Tom's going over his volume profile Hey in detail Okay, I'll look at some of it Like here high volume node. Let's see if we get a bounce off of it here by buyers Or they're going to kind of explore down to 40 45 50 here and then come right back up to Uh 44 60 Well, let's take a look so far more sellers So looking for them to try to trade down to this 55 liquidity here Just for the just for this move here selling coming in looking for 55 Okay, even though it now it's starting to kind of test this structure here Even test here, but it hasn't broken here. Now it has now it has. Okay. Well, we didn't get to 55 So now likely come right back up is bouncing off of this area. So looking for buyers to try to trade it back up to Uh, maybe maybe around here 60 67, but 70 is where the liquidity is Fabio, so what do you what's your main technical analysis? What what are you usually trading? And uh, let's take let's put put spy in here. I don't think I have it up Oh, there there you go. There's david david with david w with another one the overnight that was also the overnight high Right exactly. So so, you know looking now Exactly. So there is a level that you're looking at What's the order flow around that level? Okay, uh, yeah, we didn't we didn't get back up. We got back up to here Almost 67 That this is still kind of bearish here. We didn't get back up here. We didn't find enough. They did not break the structure here So yeah, now we can get the move back down to 60 Um, and then maybe our our previous 50 55 polled Uh, they're down here. It looks like at 52 and 50 instead And we're getting our answer here.  All right. So 70s looking good. They should be able to hit it. This is some some A new buying coming in here. So looking for 70 looking for 75 Uh, and then maybe 80 Heck, this could be the move on up to to, uh Uh, 4500 here strong buying. So looking for the continuation here 75 80 Okay, so you started uh, fabio crypto three years ago On volume data fib times horizontal. Okay, interesting If you trade fibs look for order flow around your fib levels Interday scalping. Oh cool. Yeah, good to hear. Um David actually showed something really great. Uh today in the crypto chat room Uh, tarantino david tarantino. Um, and uh, he showed uh, I forgot all about it It's like in terms of crypto um I kind of forgot the cme Uh offers, uh crypto futures What does that mean? That means we can get, uh, mbo data for that That's fantastic. So take a look at the crypto room. Uh, in fact, let me let me bring it up here. Um I mean great great stuff here. Uh, here it is Okay, and uh, let's open it up Bigger Yeah, look at all those icebergs in here Okay icebergs in here boom All right, so, uh nice trade david beautiful Yeah, so, uh, yeah, here we go cme product. Um and stops in icebergs I forgot all about that. Um All right, guys, so we're up there. We're looking for the stronger move. We're almost at 80 I'm still looking for them to hit 80 and break out Uh likely get a bit of a pullback here probably to about 65 or 68 right here Just top the you know top of the structure Okay, again, let's just mark up the structure Okay Look at your p-shape profile here as well. Even though there's a lot of selling up here All right, doesn't doesn't really matter. It's still heavy heavily weighted up here And if we get buyers back up above this area here, so we got to get buyers back up above right here the swing Uh, then we can get the nice move One one one caveat though is usually when you see a lot of sellers up here, they'll sell again Uh, so even though it's p-shaped, you know, we're reading the the volume within the profile here. That's kind of key Key understanding but on on the other hand, like, you know, so many times we see that well It's actually just about trading activity in general Uh, if you can get it up here like you can get more up here Uh, and maybe you'll get buyers up here now and then maybe they'll move it So that's what we got to read when we zoom in here. All right, let's uh Continue on let me get back to the questions Yeah, and let's take a look at spy Okay, I didn't do that Uh, Doug look at that beauty big one Usually spy is a lot harder to read than the cues. Um, but there it is it filled it already Okay, huge liquidity in here. Look at the distinction. I love the way Doug looks at these, uh ETFs And then looking at these huge huge areas of liquidity On the bid way down here on the offer way up here Uh, let's see if we get more buyers here just because it traded into it like like we said the event is this Okay, and you'd be looking it. It's almost like a no-brainer down here. You're looking for that move up into it Look at that buying in here They're gonna charge right after it Okay, now do we get more up here? I See a lot of selling in here So it looks like some back and forth in here, but we're gonna watch slow computer and see if we get more buyers up here You know, we might have to just kind of like get back go back and forth in here Um for a bit before we can get buyers back up here to break out nice one though And this is a hard market. I mean like if you look here look look how close they are to best bid and offer in here Okay, well that's because they're using this for hedging And this is how this market is being used Or this instrument And uh, you can you you can still use it though You know looking at these areas of really high liquidity Yeah, great stuff dug Okay, so i'm selling in here.  Um, I'm sorry 4 uh 48 all right back to the s and p Uh, let's take a quick look at bitcoin, uh as well. Oh, I had some data loss in here So that's not not too helpful Yeah, not seen much anyway in here It's a mess It's really messy Nice move to the downside sweeps down here into high liquidity. Nice move back up sweeps up here All right, here's our pullback Okay, let's see if we get buyers in here now Okay looking for them And looking for a move just back up to here 75 Hey, we see the liquidity coming in a little in front of it 74 73 Okay, we see our buyers here though And let's see if they can move it on up a bit higher A little bit more buying here. There they are Let's see a little bit more Bid looks okay here at 65. Well, it did They just pulled No, no, they can't hold it Okay, potential falls breakdown. Let's take a look Okay. Yeah, I like it now. They they brought it back to this little area here. Let's see them They got to break it here Got to break this 68 level here and they cannot Here they go one more try. Let's see if they can break it Better but still haven't broken it yet Okay, there we go. Let's see them break it now and let's see if we can get move back up to 72 73 here Not bad not bad volume looking for it then 72 73 Okay, and pull away from this area here Okay. Now how how what's a what's a trade consideration for this looking for this this move here? So, uh, you know, basically getting in around 68 ish or right right around in here Um And uh, yeah, you know, it would be just looking for a quick shot back up into 72 73 Uh, and then that where would you place your stop? Okay. Well, you're looking for this to work now Uh, and uh And it should uh, if we get our buyers here, it should and they should be able to reach it back up into these areas here So where would you place your stop? Uh, probably uh below maybe here or maybe the swing down here Okay, but uh, if you start to see selling coming in here, I would bail on it. Um, I mean big selling coming in here Okay, now I would also um, you know, just just considerations here. I would be stopped out at break even on this one I'm giving you a shot. I'm looking for this move to work now If it doesn't work now, I am out Okay, you can always get back in And that's the beauty of a retail trader. We have that flexibility Okay, looking again getting in here. Let's see 68 If we get it if we see enough buyers here, okay there Now I want I also want confirmation in the order book here. I don't like to see this here Liquidity in here. I want to see the opposite of that. So yeah, I wouldn't be getting in this I wanted to see them on the bid supporting it here And I don't want to see this I want to see them pull here on the offer Okay, now now they're starting to do it. Let's see if we get some on the bid now if we can get back up here around 68 69 Okay, so they pulled Okay, now a little on the bid. All right, let's see it buyers then Okay Take a shot at it looking for the move that we originally look for up here Okay, this is looking much better. See how that's higher probability. There's our move, right? So and still looking for this to to to uh to go Okay, maybe take partial profit if you're trading one lot, there's that's your high probability move right there Okay That was kind of kind of tricky and kind of fast in here. Hey, we tried it here Stopped out a break even still scenario is open. Didn't like this in here But once they pulled once they started add in in this area in here Then we're looking and we see the buying in here. We're looking for that break Okay, and they're still in control from here They're still in control move the stop to break even though give it a shot here. It should work They're trying to pull it away from this area here on size Looking for buyers again up here 77 hit 77 Okay Does that make sense? Let me can I can kind of mark it up here. I think I'll use rectangles Okay, so Yeah in in here somewhere around here Okay, stop would be uh probably down here Uh and then looking for it to move uh and and it should it should work Okay, uh Partial profit here for a quick scalp reduce the risk stop break even or If you did if you take your your stop or your a partial profit up here. This is what you can do oops Sorry We've gone it over a bunch of times in the past Okay, so you took your profit there Your stop can still be down here your original stop can still be down here. It's one to one Okay, uh, however your risk is zero like uh, if you get stopped out down here, you made nothing Okay, if you move your stop to break even here, you still made this leg here Right and this is still in play This move is still in play Okay, looking for more buyers back up here and then the move to 77 Okay, don't don't like it now. I mean I I see exhaustion and sellers coming in Okay, but it's still in play buyers took control here The move and the break above it at our 68 69 level in here Okay, stopped out at break even on the on the second leg Took partial profit Okay, now if you if you stayed in in the bigger picture here, you're you're you didn't get stopped out Right you're giving up more kind of breathing room here and you're still in it and it still looks good Looking for him right here looking for that skew in the order book again on the bid And looking for our buyers and stream up to 77 There it is beautiful move Okay, and it's still going All right, so there there's a trade scenario for you guys So going and reading the order flow, but now in consideration of a possible trade management beautiful move I think I think you can still see if we can maybe get back up into you know Still looking for the bigger move up here And I think it it looks it looks really good right now Look at the buying coming in here higher time frame and it looks good You know looking for the move back up into 4500 basically Okay, see the distinction See see the volume on this time frame Now you could still be in the move from over here In any of these areas here Okay depends on what time frame you're trading Like when we started the webinar We're looking for this scenario to unfold Okay, and it and it and it has Okay, get everyone going the wrong way, but what do we note? absorption on the way down also icebergs And then we're looking for our buyers on the way back up and and to to move it away quickly and they did All right, so any questions on that This is I mean basic, you know, uh trade management considerations here Very very simple Now if you got stopped out on the on you know move to break even and you took that leg and then you you missed all of this Yeah, you're kicking yourself, but you could always get back in Like okay, it it stopped you out. This is exactly what is meant to do Test down here Is there you know more? aggressive sellers in here And and test it there weren't Buyers come back in and move it right back up Okay, s and p does this all the time Okay, this kind of uh retesting areas. This is one of the reasons why we don't cover it too often Um, it's moving so nicely the last few weeks that we've been covering it, but um In the uh in the past it was just painful So we jumped over to nasdaq And it it that market tests, you know And retests other areas as well, but not as often Uh, it's more volatile Thanks, david. Yeah, london close 13 minutes Yeah, that's gonna change up everything. Um You know So it's gonna there's gonna be some volatility and some back and forth and we'll just you know have to kind of Hang on for the ride Uh Sometimes it it's really clear to read other times. It's just really muddy I would say it's more muddy than than uh, uh, than not Typically, I don't know how you guys feel. Um, but uh Yeah, the uh, I don't know. I I like reading the uh the market open, uh, and the the strong directional moves in the open um, I I kind of struggle with the uh order flow at the close Uh of the s or the uh us session though I mean, there's just so many big players doing so many different things. It's like, whoa, look at that That's a ton of volume and then they come in with even more volume and move it the other way. Um, you know, so like, uh Uh, it's crazy. It's it's hard. It's a hard read. Uh, sometimes sometimes it's very very clear. Um, so, um anyway Oh, thanks, david. Um, yep Uh, and then uh, austerman. Yep. Thank you. Thank you very much. Um I'm glad it's helpful. That's what we're here for. Ask questions, please Uh, happy to go through it. Like if if if this is like the kind of content that you guys are looking for more About like trade management considerations in here, we can go through them Um, but you know, like I said, like the whole and we've been doing it for years Maybe it's time to shake it up a little bit. Uh, maybe this is more helpful Uh, the uh, the idea though and the concept has always been Read the order flow and then work if you can read the order flow correctly It can work for any trading strategy Okay, or any trade management strategy as well And that's that's uh, the key. I mean really it's like trying to cover all bases because it's there Uh, and that's why I really encourage you guys to watch part one of the educational course Understanding these kinds of moves here. Look at this book sweep here. Well, it's not so much a book sweep. It's a little bit. Um But um, look at this move lower here. Okay sellers dominating here on this very small time frame Do we get buyers back up above here 77 and a half? No Do we see more sellers in here? Let's see Okay, now this is more micro type of uh, uh outlook here Okay, but it's the same concepts here. Look at even icebergs on the other side here interesting Look at the dynamic between stops and icebergs They're going to run the stops someone's going to be on the other side going. Yep. I'll take all of that Okay, and now we're looking for some sort of consideration in here from the order book We know the structure. This is the structure Okay, now we're looking at the order book, uh, as well as the the the volume within that structure Okay, we're down here. We're still down low here Okay, and we have exhaustion on both. It's not really exhaustion on both sides It's just back and forth here and and look at the volume is all right in the middle of this three tick range in here So we're looking for more buyers up here or more sellers down here Just in this small tiny little example here Okay, so now we're down here. Best bit is down here. Do we get sellers here though? Nope No all the trading is taking place right in the middle tick Still, oh, okay. There's something different, right? All right. So can they do it again? Oh Now we got some buying look at the order book in here Okay Well, look at the let's get another little bit of a buy volume here at 77 and then we'd be looking for what our move to Up here 77 and a half or even the swing above Now we're looking for liquidity up in these areas for the those buyers to reach Okay, there's more buying See the distinction There they go. There's our move up to here and that was it. That was all we're looking for Now, I know that's like a a point or something, right? Uh same concepts though slow computer same exact concepts here All right. So now wrap trade strategy, uh, you know trade management around something like that Maybe you're looking for a pullback to here And then you're looking for you know, you're you're this is where they took control So you're looking for a pullback to here and then you're getting in You look at exhaustion up here sellers come back in they're likely going to trade it right back down here at least to here at least to here Right because this is the high volume node here Same ideas. This is where it and what I mean by this. This is important because I I don't want to go through so much I want to also kind of dissect Uh Market and volume profile What is going on down here We have a lot of trading activity down here Okay, we we see them trying to pull it away now. This is our responsive sellers bringing it back down here It just means it can likely transact down here again because this is where there were transactions previously Okay, and we get the move down here and then look look who's taking control Okay, moving it away Okay, so looking for them to continue to try to move it away And this is back and forth and back and forth. Anyway, these are smaller moves here, right? And we got to look at the bigger picture, but you can you can look at these these different time frames in here All right, just understanding those market mechanics. Uh, now just understand what makes the market move Uh, and then uh, and now start to bring that into Maybe volume profile. Maybe it's patterns trading Thanks, I run. Oh, thanks, Osterman Yeah, really appreciate it Okay, excellent Fabio. Well Uh, you guys buckle up. I'm I'm gonna sign off here and then open it up for uh, Tom to start streaming. I look for him. It's just in the traders lab right, you know, right in this little area here guys, you'll see it. Uh, so, uh, and uh, you know Pass the baton on to uh, to Tom and uh, let, uh, let him take it away here Yeah, thanks bog Allen. Have a great weekend guys. Yeah Excellent. Thanks, David Fabio And Doug. All right. Look for the recording here. I'll have it up pretty soon. Um, Uh, maybe maybe in a couple hours or so, uh, and uh, I'll show you where it is. Uh, so that you guys have that Let's see here Great trade David. I love it How can you see what's happening? Great great great stuff in that crypto and that that's uh, God, there's such an edge like uh, uh to look at mba. I forgot all about mba data and crypto. That's just awesome. Um Yeah, yeah, god and just uh, such a such a good uh, good idea. I'm kind of jealous. Um, so anyway, um, let's uh, let's take a look at the uh, uh, our youtube page and this is where they'll be You'll you'll find them down here recordings. Um of live streaming webinars I think I'm gonna reword that live streaming webinar recordings. How about that? Okay. All right guys, uh, have a good weekend everybody. Uh, look for tom. He'll he'll be cranking it up here I imagine pretty soon. Uh, and um, uh, we will uh, we'll see you guys on monday. Okay Okay. All right.


You have five areas, main areas to have knowledge and skills and experience on, and that would be language, because you're dealing with different languages. You have to deal with pedagogy and the didactics to using the materials and using the way you address those migrants to the students. And third, you should have an idea of social identity and social psychology norms about ethnic forming, about identity, about xenophobia, racism issues and all those things. Fourth, very important is parent involvement, because they come from so many different backgrounds and parents are essential in the career of students. And fifth is that you build up community relationships, that you know what kind of area your school is and that you make connections with the area. So within these serious networks we have done a lot on professional capacity building of teachers and we dealt with language issues and we came up with schools in Estonia, Lithuania but also Germany who dealt with language issues using textbooks in two languages for instance and making use of videos where they spoke different languages. So we were in Norway for instance and they have a Norwegian text, video text as well as a Somali text in the same video and in that way they could address both languages at one moment and other countries could get used to that as well. And we're now proposing even a Erasmus Plus proposal for using and spreading bilingual materials around Europe and being translated into seven or eight different European languages to be used. On pedagogy we discovered that if you are working with small groups and if you place different students within one group you can easily help them and to teach each other and to help them in their own way to teach each other and then you get to know how people learn and you can get experienced on how to deal with those issues. The subjects in Teacher Training Institute should not be separate subjects only on migrant issues, no it should be integrated in the core curricula. In the teacher training programs less attention is given to parent involvement and school community relationships and that's really something that's really necessary for making an inclusive educational system.


How to use lesson planning to its fullest potential Some theorists suggest that lesson planning is not a good idea as it creates a more fixed, teacher-centered lesson, ITDT Teflon 9 lesson planning, page 1. However, I would argue that without a lesson plan many inexperienced English teachers may often lack direction. I will discuss how to best use a lesson plan to achieve the greatest successes in each lesson. It allows you to logically move through the engage, study and activate stages. There are many important functions in a lesson plan. The first being, it is a need to planning. It allows you to consider what the students should be achieving in each lesson and how you can make this possible. It allows you to logically move through the engage, study and activate stages within the set time frame of the lesson. The lesson plan also serves as a working document, that is, it helps you stay on track and allows you to have something to refer to throughout the lesson. The important thing to remember when referring to the lesson plan, however, is to not be too rigid. It is important to remain flexible which better allows the teacher to respond to the need of the class should problems or difficulties arise. An example of this can be when students are struggling with a certain activity, a teacher may need to spend more time showing them examples of how to complete it, or better explaining it and running through it with them. If a teacher sticks to their plan too rigidly, a student may be confused and not benefit from the exercises. However, if they are flexible, they can ensure the students understand. It is important to remember to record changes made in each lesson so you have a proper record of what occurred during the lesson for future reference. The lesson plan is also a sort of record for what has occurred in each class and what material was used. Proper recording of each class content will also allow substitute teachers to easily cover your class, should you become ill and unable to attend. How to write a lesson plan There are many methods for writing down a lesson plan. Whilst some teachers write a formal plan, others may simply jot down some simple notes. The best use of a lesson plan is whatever method works best for each individual. It is very flexible in its creation, however, there are some basic principles when writing a lesson plan. These include, Keep the lesson plan simple so it is not too difficult to refer to quickly during a lesson. Do not script the lesson, you can never predict the exact outcome of each lesson and this only complicates the lesson plan. Structure your lesson plan and maintain the same structure each time you write one so as not to confuse yourself. Include the estimated time each activity will take, this allows you to keep within the time limit of each lesson, and better plan for future activities should you underestimate or overestimate timing. Ensure the lesson has a smooth flow, adhering to the general principle of starting with the engage phase and finishing with the activate phase in each lesson. Ensure it is flexible, it must be open to changes should the need arise. What to include in your lesson plan The main things that should be included in a lesson plan are Date or time or location Learner objectives, what the students should be able to do by the end of the lesson Personal aims, what the teacher wishes to achieve, any area of teaching they wish to improve Language point, the theme of the lesson Teaching aids, what materials will be needed throughout the lesson Anticipated problems for students and teacher Procedure, the activities to be included to help achieve learner objectives Phase, reference to which phase each activity falls under, that is engage, study or activate Timing, how long each activity is estimated to take Interaction, for example student-student interaction or teacher-student interaction Class level, the ability level of the class relating to their use of the English language Number of students, allows you to keep a record of class size Teacher and observer names, useful if the class is monitored An effective way of continually improving lessons and better achieving class needs and goals is to constantly monitor your lessons The lesson plan allows you to do this, but it is also useful to add notes to it at the end of each lesson This allows you to find areas of improvement and ways you can better engage the class or make the lesson more enjoyable in the future By focusing on each lesson's strengths and weaknesses teachers will be helping themselves to develop Now you're ready to write your own lesson plan If a lesson plan is properly utilized and well-recorded, it can be an incredibly useful tool for all English teachers in any classroom environment It can ensure the students are engaged, enjoying the class, and achieving the desired learning outcomes Its use will make lessons more effective and overall better for both teachers and students Are you ready to teach English abroad? Speak with an ITTT advisor today to put together your personal plan for teaching English abroad Send us an email or call us toll free at 1-800-490-0531 to speak with an ITTT advisor today