Okay, so let's go ahead and get started. Max, you're okay? Excellent. Thanks very much. I appreciate the professionalism of the forum and the team from Swiss TV, because they're extremely efficient. We have some of those in the back of the door if you want to come in and sit down. Even if you're in security, you don't have to stand for the next hour. I don't think the deputy prime ministers want the security guys with very sore legs later. Is that right? They're independent, he said. Okay, very good. Okay, these are not the best of times, I would suggest right now in 2015, but obviously they're not the worst of times as well. But I think it's fair to say they are harder times to grow, and hence the title of our program today, Growing in Harder Times in 2015. A bit of irony here, the United States is growing quite handsomely, probably three and a half to 4% in 2015, but this is the economy that sparked the global financial crisis back in 2008 and 2009. The Eurozone's gonna be lucky to grow one to 1.2%, but at least we know at this stage what the European Central Bank has plans for. It's pulled out a pretty good size bazooka, better than a trillion dollars over an 18 month period to try to boost growth in Europe. Big debate, of course, with Germany suggesting that austerity and discipline and reforms should continue to go forward. We'll see how that plays out. This weekend we have the Greek election, of course. We could have the Grexit, depending on which way the voters go, and whether the Greeks can participate in that program or not, depending on the progression of the European Union IMF ECB bailout plan that's on the table. So what does this mean about the engines of global growth? We often talk about the emerging markets being the engines of global growth. They're struggling a little bit. China was growing 7.4% last year. That would be the envy of the world for everybody else, I would think, but there's concerns that it will surrender 7% this year, but let's take a look at a video report that outlines the IMF forecast for 2015 and we'll pick up our discussion thereafter. Please go ahead and roll the video. The United States, the country that many say was the spark behind the 2008 global financial crisis, is now moving full steam ahead. Unemployment is below 6%, growth hovering around 4%. The largest emerging market, China, is growing at the slowest pace of nearly a quarter century. But President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Khe Gang seem determined to try and defend 7% growth. But the real question marks for 2015 are not the world's number one and two-sized economies, but global risks linked to the collapse of oil prices and potential deflation. Yemen, Libya, and Iraq remain tension-filled hotspots and will fuel the strain of a drop in revenues as will Nigeria and, of course, Russia as one of the world's top three energy producers. This is a look through the IMF's 2015 crystal ball, global growth of 3.5% down from 3.8% last October. China to expand 6.8% and slightly less next year. Russia to contract by 3%, a steep revision from last October. Nigeria 4.8%, 2.5% below the autumn forecast. Mexico is expected to grow just above 3% and Turkey at 3%. The one caveat here, the IMF has been traditionally optimistic and as a result has had to ratchet down forecasts and many believe that may be the case later this year. So that gives us a very good indication of where we are in January 2015. Of course, the reason we wanted to talk about the political risks thereafter is because this could all be thrown off by very sudden or shocking events. But let's start with the Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey, a 3% forecast with what the European Union has decided to do with stimulus here. Could you surpass that number in 2015? Well, I think it's a reality which we have to see that last 10 years versus next 10 years, it will be a different era for emerging markets. The average growth rates will go down compared to last 10 years. But the lower growth rates are even going to be still higher than the growth rates of the developed countries. So when we talk about lower growth rate for Turkey or for China or other countries, these will be still on average much higher than the developed world. For Turkey specific, the lower oil prices and the measures that we are taking to diversify our export markets have been working very well. Maybe European markets are not performing well but our exports to Africa, to Asia, Latin America is growing very fast. We had only 12 embassies in Africa in 2008. Today we have 39 embassies. Turkish airlines fly to more than 40 destinations and the trade is growing. So in a way, time-divertification of markets and time-divertification of the product range helps a lot in these kind of times. Deputy Prime Minister Shuvala, this is probably one of the most difficult years for President Vladimir Putin and the Russian economy. Sanctions are in place. We're looking at potentially, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a contraction of nearly 5%. The IMF puts it at 3%. How do you navigate very choppy waters with the political situation you're faced with, with the European Union and the United States? But that's not the first time. If we recall different crises in my country, these may be, I recall the fourth one. And in 2007, the oil price dropped again dramatically and we survived and two years later, we felt much stronger. This time again, the forecasts are different. This forecast is possible. This is possible scenario. But at the same time, we have maybe a scenario where we will be around zero. It means the economy is freezing. The half of our oil incomes will disappear. But at the same time, we understand there's a structural need to perform something else and to find new markets for our expo goods, which was not the agenda for Russians before because it was money and coming from setting oil and gas. So this is another challenge, but I think we will go. As you know, this has been talking of reform for a decade in Russia and the discussion to look for other markets and tilt to the East. The reality is, this government got a little bit spoiled by $100 oil and that first called the reforms. I have to admit, you're right. We were spoiled by these numbers and people were just expecting new numbers of public expenditures. And people were, they were not motivated to work harder to provide labor productivity, but now this is the case where we will do this because we are forced. Maurice Levy, you have a very good finger on the pulse of global growth as the CEO of one of the largest advertising firms in the world. But I wanted to get your thoughts on the European Central Bank's actions here on the quantitative easing. Will it provide finally the stimulus, even though it's six years late or six years after the US Federal Reserve? President Draghi is going a little bit beyond the mandate and that is the reason why it has taken so long to come to that kind of stimulus. And it will act as a stimulus. What I would be very much worried about is that leaders believe that this will be enough and that they should not go through the reform program that we have absolutely to implement in some countries, including mine. So it is extremely important to see that as something which is relaxing a little bit the economy and easing the balance sheet of the banks and not the final solution to the austerity and to believe that all our issues are behind us. No, the issues are still there and we have to go through a very serious reform program particularly in the southern part of Europe. I find it fascinating that people start to panic about China when it's, you know, hovers at 7.4%. It's a big tanker ship you have to move, of course. But President Xi and Premier Li and we heard him here at the World Economic Forum believe they can defend at 7%. Bo Chengling, do you think it's gonna be 7% or higher? We should be happy about a softer landing for China? I believe that they'll be still higher than 7%. The IMF estimate is a bit low. The reason for that is very simple. Urbanization is continuing.  So if China, the Chinese government just spend a little bit, it will be 7%. Having said that, I think that's the difficulties. The difficulty here is that we get used to 10% growth. Now with the 7, 7.4%, you still really need to go through the reform structure changes and others to really address that 3% difference associated with the socioeconomic problems. So in China, you still have to work hard. But I believe that 7%, above 7% is achievable. You're not concerned about the social unrest because it's not reaching beyond the major, large cities of China yet. The wealth is not trickling outside the major hubs of manufacturing and finance. Precisely, not yet. I think that the growth will continue even though that, for example, like housing, we've got a problem with the housing market. But then there are tremendous infrastructure need to be built in other, you know, the second tier, third tier cities. So I think that the growth momentum is still there. Amelia Lozoya of Pemex, you're neighboring Mexico, of course, to the United States. The U.S. is growing like great gangbusters after all that quantitative easing. But we're not seeing the growth that we saw in Mexico three years ago, not the 4%, not to march to 5%. What's hurting Mexico right now from popping above that level? Well, indeed, 2015 is a complex scenario for the world economy. And what is Mexico doing in this context? We're committed to fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability, as we have done in the last 20 years. We expect growth a little bit higher than the IMF is predicting in the range of three and a half to 3.9%. Despite low oil prices, but I think paradoxically, low oil prices, people believe is gonna have a higher impact on Mexico's GDP. GDP related to oil has been less than 8% for the last years. So actually we will benefit more from a stronger economy. The numbers are encouraging. In 2014, October year-to-year figures are 8% increase exports of automobiles to the United States, 20% increase in manufacturing exports to the U.S., which is 80% of our trade. And the economy created 950,000 jobs in 2014. So the numbers are good. It could be better if we had better oil prices, but the economy is moving. Mexico is fully committed also to implementing the 11 structural reforms that were approved. We've done the first part, which is to approve them through the legislation, but now we have to implement them. And that's the encouraging part. I think 2015 is going to be a good year for Mexico, despite the risks out there that you have clearly mentioned. The African Renaissance, we're all excited in Davos 2014 about Africa finally getting its opportunity in the global spotlight. I thought it fascinating, Patrice Mosepe, that Nigeria is seeing one of the sharpest downgrades of growth for 2015, negative 2.5% off of the top line number of last year and the projecting growth of just 4.8% for Nigeria. South Africa is struggling to get above 1.5%. What's holding back Africa? Still too dependent on commodities in your view? Well, currently there's approximately 750 million mobile users in Africa, double the size of the United States. Over the past year, approximately 80 billion US dollars was spent on infrastructure. Nigeria and Gola and those countries, Equatorial Guinea-Gobon that were primarily oil producing countries in the past have, it's quite impressive that they've built some foreign reserves. I think Nigeria's got approximately 20 billion US foreign reserve and Gola's got about 15 to 17 billion US dollars foreign reserve. And of course we have been impacted by the decrease in precious metals, copper and the oars, but those traditional commodity sectors of the economy are now being replaced by financial services, telecommunications, retail, and manufacturing industries growing and that continues to give us confidence for the future. It seems like Africa, ironically, because China was investing into Africa and had this FDI, but Africa is very dependent on Chinese growth for exports, for your company in particular. Are you concerned about the Chinese slowdown and the demand for your products at the stage? You know, it's interesting. 15% of the current trade that Sub-Saharan Africa is conducting is with China. Let me give you a few numbers. Africa's trade with Europe is in excess of 400 billion US. Africa's trade with China is in excess of 200 billion US. So the EU collectively is still a significant in a huge trading partner of Africa. Of course, China is the single largest economy that trades with Africa. It will, China's growth will indeed have an impact, but it's also important that, you know, Africa's trading with India, it's trading with Brazil, it's trading with Russia, it's trading with various other emerging economies. And America's growth is a very positive development for Africa. What is lacking in Africa, Shri Mosepi, though, is that infrastructure spending that needs to come in to provide the efficiency for investors coming from the outside, have those goods go to market faster and not be so reliant on commodities. After all, 60% of the exports are still reliant on oil in Africa, which is a surprising number. Very important. Africa's economies historically have been geared towards the export of commodities to historically to the European markets. The intra-African trade hasn't been as significant as it can be. Over the last five to 10 years, there's been significant growth. Last year alone, in excess of 20 billion dollars was spent on infrastructure in Africa by the private sector, both private sector from outside Africa and private sector from the continent. So the infrastructure is very important. And lots of the governments are spending more money on education, provision of skills. There's a middle class that's coming up. And that middle class, more educated, more in touch with the rest of the world, provides an exciting market for intra-African trade as well as for growth of the domestic economies. I want to take a look at the connection between politics and economics and how it filters in to growth and opportunity for societies. Let's start with Turkey. We have a very powerful president evolving that role as an executive president. Some would suggest that President Erdogan has too tight a grip on power and is not as free Turkey as it was before. Too much concentration. In fact, there was worries that you would keep your job and the international investors love having you in that role as the DPM in charge of economic policy. What's the answer to that? What's the real answer, Deputy Prime Minister? First of all, Turkey is a democracy. And the quality of our democracy has been going up and up. We have elections this year. We had two elections last year. Local elections and then presidential elections. And now general elections are coming up. So our democracy is being tested over and over again. And we are asking over and over again, our people, what do you like? What kind of a government you would like to see? And it seems like our people likes our government and they like us just to continue. And the thing is that the democracy is also very important to go with rule of law and good practice of human rights and freedoms. And as a country, if I can interject here, this is a president, even as Prime Minister, a severe crackdown on the media, severe restraint on the judiciary bodies. Anytime there's an investigation against the government, he intervenes, let's be candid here. And that doesn't seem to be the character of a democracy. Well, Turkey has a very strong external anchor when we talk about the quality of our democracy or when we look at our practice of freedoms, rule of law and so forth. And that is the European Union process. So our democracy is being assessed continuously from outside by the European Commission and the European Parliament. And in that way, we are able to judge ourselves, the performance and do whatever we can to improve in all the senses. But most of the problematic areas which you are mentioning has a lot to do also the transition period that we have been going through, the very peculiar domestic set of political events that we have went through. But I can easily say that we have right now more than 400 TV channels, 1100 radio channels and the very vivid media. And out of the first five newspapers in Turkey, actually you will see there's only one pro-government newspaper. And the others are whether more, let's say, objective or less so on and so forth. So I think that the perception versus what is really going on ground, that is a discrepancy. And that discrepancy could be probably corrected. But even for the media that you have been referring to, the fact that this is private sector, the fact that there are so many different companies and so many different internet media also, which is just booming in the country. And being such an open country and an open democracy, it is not really easy to control everything. Maybe it's not good to try to control everything anyway. Like shutting down YouTube or Twitter. Well, that had some security issues as you know. The reason why we had to do it was because of the very, very confidential and top secret recordings of our security meetings were leaked into YouTube. And because of the very severe security threat, we had to do it on a very short while. But then we passed a law through our parliament to give that authority mostly to our courts to do what is necessary and whenever is necessary. Maurice Levin, when you look at different emerging markets, because you play all around the world as a businessman, what are the top three priorities when you tick the boxes to say, I'm willing to put publicese funds to play here? And I know it's higher risk, but I get higher rewards if the growth is there. The most interesting emerging market today is United States of America. When you look at the rate of growth, the morale of the consumers, the morale of the CEOs, you believe that yes, you can invest. But when you look at the emerging market more seriously, you cannot look at this as a block. Each country is different and each country has its own history and the idea of the bricks or the MISAT is something which is no longer valid. So definitely China, we have to invest and we have to continue to invest in China. This is something which is extremely important, not only because of the size of the market, but also because of the prospects for the future, even if they are going through a bump and there is some issues that it's 6.8 or 6.5 compared to 7.4, it's not a big problem because at the point in time, I think being at 7 would be quite a good outcome compared to some other countries. We like very much Mexico because of the proximity with the US and the way Mexico has changed the policy recently and we believe that Mexico is a good bet for us. Turkey is a very interesting country. I'm always leery when somebody says interesting because it's like a paragraph there going, I'm interested but there are not. No, no, no, it's... OK, you want me to be more positive, I would be more positive. That wasn't what I was getting at. It would be a much more interesting country as if they were using our services. OK, but in Turkey, there is a lot of possibility because there is something which is quite interesting. There is a lot of entrepreneurs and that is something which is building the future. Entrepreneurs are the one who are building from this relatively small company, something which will become big and we believe this will be extremely interesting. We have sorry to say that, a little bit of concern regarding Russia, not so much. Speak of the oil. You are still very good. We are investing in Russia but we believe that we have to see how things will be settled, not only regarding the issue with Ukraine but also what will happen to the Robles and how the economy will be taking off. So, this is just a small picture. There are some other countries which are extremely interesting but I would like to move to Europe because Europe is probably a good bet for the future. Europe is at a very low level of growth and there is a lot of opportunity to invest in Europe and they think that there will be a point where we will see the inversion and finally Europe will take off and the day Europe will take off it's much better to have a much stronger position in those countries. OK, very good. I want to bring up the second topic here and that is the falling price of oil since June of last year, $115 a barrel down to below 50 today. Very key topics. It influences the different economies around the arc here in a very different way. Let's start with the passing of King Abdullah and the strategy of Saudi Arabia and Mr. Lin, I think it would be a good place to start us with China. I mean, this is a strategy here from Saudi Arabia. What influence will the passing of King Abdullah have on that policy and how has the energy scenario changed the outlook for China's growth? We really hope that it will not change the strategy at this moment. The low oil price is really good for China in several aspects. For one thing that if the current oil price of 40, 50, continue for another six months, China will save about 100 billion US dollars. You don't have to do anything, just sit there. Second is that China is good for China's strategic reserve. We don't have enough days. We target 90 days. But obviously much less than that. And I think it's also good for China's going out. China's foreign oil dependency roughly 60% of this moment. And last year we put in about 23.4 million units of coal on the stream. And that converted three to 4% of the oil demand. And given that the oil consumption will be 40% in the transportation. So I think that China's oil demand still there and where foreign dependency possibly will continue to go up. So this is really a good opportunity for China to go out, our friend. Let's shift to the oil producers. Let's shift to the oil producers and start with Russia. Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov, many think that Saudi Arabia has been targeting Russia, targeting the US shale producers. It is a fight over a market share. How do you counterbalance this downward pressure when your export earnings are so dependent on oil? First, I would say that rubble will, after depreciation, dramatically appreciate. So no worries. And after high volatility, I think it will be very stable for a while. And so there is no, you know, scary about this.  We knew and for many years, it started in the Soviet Union, back in the Soviet Union. And then we recall the times in mid 80s when Soviet Union started suffering from lower oil prices. Now again, is the structure of our economy still the same? Of course not. It changed a lot. But we cannot say that we are independent from oil revenues. But at the current moment, I think on our budgetary revenues, much less dependent on oil and gas than it was 10 years ago. Now it's around 50% before it was much higher. The structure is shifting, but slowly. Nothing good for us at the moment. 2015 is going to be a hard year. But at the same time as again, your first question, it will force us to provide better structure for the economy for the next decade. There's very hard agenda, but we are focused on it. With China, they are interested in lower prices. But at the same time, we are interested in very good customers. China maybe is going to be number one customer for Russia because they are very predictable and good partner. And they say whatever prices that we will consume. And for Russian producers, they are very important to have predictable lines and understanding how they can produce and sell. So in all these very complicated picture, we are quite sure that with China and other consumers, including EU, EU is a very good partner for Russia for consuming oil, I guess. But at the same time, we understand that we cannot afford to leave the same standards as we got used for the period of 15 years. It was a very good period. We were able to achieve a lot. The country is not that poor as we started in 2000 year or 1999. So, you know, this big strong economy with its difficulties, as everybody has in their country's difficulties, but now the understanding that we cannot afford leaving the same and based on high oil prices, it's obvious. And it's good that we understand this. I want to pinpoint the question in the oil market today. Is this fight by Saudi Arabia for market share? Can we find common ground with Russia and the United States so we don't debilitate future investment into oil? $50 is very painful for Russia. $50 price is not painful for oil companies. It's painful for the country because of the revenues. But if you speak with Luke Oil, I see the president of the company here and other producers, $50 per barrel is okay for them. They will be very good development companies. They will sell their products. It's okay. It'll be very painful for us, for the government and for the regional governments to how to produce the same life standards and for the things we got used to, including many things we import, we buy from abroad. So, but again, so for the oil producers, it's okay at this price. And so they will be very competitive. Of course, they are not producing, they are cost much higher than in the Gulf countries, but they will be competitive. But for the budgetary purposes, it's very painful. Mr. Lozoia, how do you see this playing out? Mexico is at the OPEC meeting before it started in November where I was there to cover it. They tried to have this cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and it didn't amount to anything. Do you actually see in 2015 where a dialogue would take place between non-OPEC players like Russia, Mexico and OPEC to lift this price or those days are long gone? I think the OPEC has a clear policy, which is to continue production at around 30 million barrels per day. They have done some in the last decade and they will not change it. And they are the most efficient producers and at current prices, they will take away the marginal producers, in particular, those in the United States that have costs per barrel above $40. And I think that's a fact of the market. If I was a banker financing this company in the U.S., I would be worried. In the case of Mexico, we are in a different bucket. Pemex's production cost is $23 per barrel. So we are still a very profitable company at current levels. As the deputy prime minister was mentioning, for Pemex, it's painful in cash flows, but in particular, it's difficult, not for Pemex, but for the revenues that the government receives, which is 30%. However, Mexico was very prudent in this sense and the government hedge all the oil revenues for 2015 at $79. So the expenditures by the government in 2015 are covered. It will have an impact on GDP, as I mentioned. A marginal one, it could be over 4% or GDP if prices were not at current levels. But I think the question is we have to differentiate the energy cycles from the financial cycles. Financial cycles in one, two years, that's a long term. For the energy sector, 15 years is a medium term. All our projects are long term. And if you look at the official estimates, not our own estimates, by the International Energy Association, by 2030, total demand will be 120 million barrels per day. So we need 25 more million barrels per day in the next decades. Where will that come from? From very complex projects. Those projects are frontier in the frontier markets and we need the capital investments to be done. So at current prices, no company will do them. So I think prices will be elsewhere sometime. It depends how long they stay at current levels, how much pain the, I would say, the more costly producers face. But I am, in the context of Mexico, going back to my country, we have just concluded an energy reform that is historic. We're opening up the energy sector for the first time in 75 years. And as our production costs are competitive, I was mentioning the $23 figure, we expect despite the current prices, investment to come in, live production and be ready to have our production higher when prices are higher, because they will clearly be higher at some point in the near future. Patrice Mosepi, it's interesting, Tanzania, Mozambique, great natural gas finds that was going to counterbalance Nigeria, which is going through a very difficult time right now because it's competing in a much more competitive oil market. Does the great dream of big oil and gas development in East Africa and expansion in Nigeria go away now or just get postponed? Well, these are long-term investments. I mean, when we, in our industry, for example, which is mining industry, we commit significant resources for the next 10, 15, 20 years. And those projects that are underway in Tanzania, in Kenya and elsewhere on the continent will continue. But the interesting thing is that the reduced oil price is a double-edged sword. For those non-oil-producing countries on the continent, this will have a huge impact on a reduced inflation and more money in the pockets of the consumers. What is also interesting is if you look at some of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, those over the last 10 years, some of them are neither oil-producing economies, nor are they your traditional or mining export economies, Ethiopia, Kenya itself, Burkina Faso, Rwanda. But the oil, the projects that were initiated that you start that you refer to are long-term projects and we remain optimistic that they will contribute to us the growth of the African economy. Okay, third block of our program here, and this is gonna be on geopolitical risk, and I'd ask our panelists to be very tight then. I wanna allow that 10, 12 minutes to the floor for questions here. We saw a kind of Islamic radicalism, if I can say that, burst onto the scene here in France. Maurice Levy, would you suggest this is the greatest geopolitical risk in Europe today? I don't believe that it is only in Europe. I think it's the radical terror that we are seeing today. It's something which is blind. And you have not one organization which is acting. You have a lot of people who can act on behalf of that organization anywhere in the world. And what has been quite impressive is the response of the people. And I thought that finally after all these painful moment and the extremely dramatic moment you saw the rebound of the people we are all thinking that France was tired, depressed and we had no longer the ability of jumping again and you saw four million people in the streets and the solidarity of the world which has been enormous. The response of the world has been just incredible to see all these head of states marching in Paris. I was marching, I can tell you, I am Charlie. And it was extremely impressive. And I believe that we can expect a lot of terrorist acts in many places and it is something which cannot be predictable, which can happen anywhere, can happen in Argentina, can happen in Turkey, in Russia, in any given country in the US and we know that there is a lot of events which have been stopped. And if I can share something with you which is during the meeting we had at the IBC we were asking the people what was the more threatening issue for the future? I suppose geopolitical event and behind this world there is obviously the terror which can happen suddenly. So we have to get used to that and we have to think that life is stronger than fear and hope is much stronger than being scared and we have to fight against terror and they believe we are ready. Turkey lives in probably the roughest neighborhood. Do you have Syria to the south? ISIS has taken territory in Syria and Iraq. What would you put as the number one geopolitical risk for you or strategic security risk for Turkey now? Well, first of all, terror does not have religion. Terror does not have nationality. Terrorism is a global problem which does need a united effort an international effort to cope with. So we cannot identify terror with any region of the world or any ethnic origin or any religion or whatsoever. So I think as a principle, as a principle we have to have a very united stance. And we had unfortunate events in Paris and many actual leaders including King Abdullah of Jordan, Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine, my prime minister, Davutov, they were all there to stay united against terror. So I think that as a principle is very important. And on the other hand, I think we should be looking at this terror or extremism from a global point of view and also realize that in Europe especially there are some rising dangerous trends Islamophobia, xenophobia, nationalist trends. These are actually all the things that we have to be careful about. Just in last one month in Germany, 94 mosques were burned down. So it is very important I think for the political leaders to stay united and to have one single approach of terrorist of any kind, extremist of any kind. So in Syria it is a big problem. In Syria it was originally regime and rebellion fighting against each other. But then we have now not only ISIS but also PYD and many other terrorist organizations fighting with each other, fighting with regime and so forth. And I think again the problem with Syria right on our border is that we don't really see a single united stance for what kind of a solution we want to find for Syria. Only military means is not enough to solve terrorism problem. If you think that you can use just weapons to kill terrorists and the terror will end is not the case. There should be more of an integrated, comprehensive approach and using many different tools, the political tools, the social tools, economic tools, intelligence tools in an integrated way and in a united manner so that only we can solve this problem. Deputy Prime Minister Shubalov, a Russian executive says something to be very prescient I thought he said. It's very hard to see a solution with Russia and Ukraine was gotten so personal between President Putin, US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It's become so personal that there's no easy exit out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That has to be the number one risk and I don't see an easy solution to it as we go into 2015. I just agree. I understand that now everybody is speaking about Ukraine when the subject is about Russia but that's not the case. I agree that number one geopolitical risk at the moment is terror threat. And when everything started in Syria, my president was very strong addressing to the American nation and American president and speaking with European leaders that Syria is not our neighbor but so close and the whole region is very fragile. Once any military operation starts, it could influence our peaceful existing immediately. And Russian people don't feel safe when people in the States talk about any possible military action in Syria or in Iran or elsewhere. So, at the same time, you need to remember the size of my country. It's huge. We start from the Baltic season and then the Pacific Ocean is the next age. So, when something happens in Iran or Syria, Turkey, we feel it and we feel it strongly. Of course, Ukraine. Ukraine is not only our neighbor.  They're so close to us. So many Ukrainians living in Russia, so many Russians living in Ukraine. So, one would argue, you like them so much, you've gone into the eastern half of the country. No, we, yeah, I know those jokes, but, you know... I don't mean that as a joke, actually. Actually, we are not meaning anything and I didn't hear anything from my president or prime minister meaning that, you know, we have interest to separate these regions from Ukraine. We are interested in having whole Ukraine as it is, the sovereign country. The only thing we want to stop the war, because that war influences us and this geopolitical risk, but not the major one, because all regional wars, all regional conflicts will influence Russia and people who are going to invest. They don't feel safe. That's not only the investment climate. People are always talking about investment climate. They will say how we feel with our friend China and for the last decade our relationship became much better. So, people are coming and invest in the neighbor regions from outside and we see not only Chinese investors from Korea, from Japan and others, even American and Canadian companies investing there. But before, I think it was impossible because for them it was a real risk. So, now, you know, at some part of my country it's becoming safer and some where it is Ukraine or closer to those regions where the Middle East is. So, that's more dangerous. And again, I would repeat it and I agree, geopolitical risk number one for 15 and maybe next year's will be terror threat. Trish Meshevi, very quickly here because of time. Africa has not been untouched by terror. Boko Haram read the heart of it. Kenya's had its challenges. Algeria's had its challenges. Mali's had its challenges. Can we get these pockets of terror in Africa under control in Kenya, in Nigeria, Mali, Southeast Algeria that we saw in the past year and a half? Terror is not confined to any specific area, whether it's Africa or any other part. It's a global threat and it's a global challenge and requires global cooperation. But there is a huge determination to deal with the terror and the threats in those areas that you've identified in. The United Nations is playing a role. Some of the African Union is contributing. It's a very serious threat that requires focused attention and focused action in the short term. But also that has to go hand in hand with education. We have to educate our youth to understand that terrorism, violence is totally unacceptable. It cannot be justified under any circumstances. But we are optimistic and confident that we should make progress in that regard. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Let's open the floor to questions. I would like to bring a microphone to the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan here to the front row. Maya Tukon, would you like to weigh into the debate? First, let's go to the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan here. And if we can get a second microphone that we can have. Do we have other questions from the floor? Because we have about five or six minutes and I want to make sure we address it. It'd be interesting to get, Prime Minister, your perspective here. A neighbor of Russia engaged in a European zone with Russia, the Eurasia's economic zone. It's not an easy time economically for Kazakhstan with oil prices down, commodity prices down. And your neighbor having very difficult time of sanctions as well. How do you contend with it as a very large country at the center which anchored its future to Russia at the same time? Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak to you. I would like to have an answer a little bit broader, not just our Eurasian Economic Union, which was started January for this year. It was a very interesting discussion about the price for oil and the changes, structural changes in the world. We believe that this year price for oil will be low and next week we are planning to go to the parliament with the changes for the budget for $50. We think the average price for oil in 2015 will be $48.50. And we look at this current situation on the price for energy, not to compare with all eight or all nine with the temporary changes on the price for oil. We look at the structural changes, like it was in 84.89 when the price for oil fell down from $30 to $10 per barrel, which is $140 in today's terms. And the price for oil except the time of 91 during the war in the Gulf, it come up to the level of $30 per barrel only 20 years later, only in 2004. That's why what is happening right now, it's not a short term, it's a long term, it's structural changes. And we made a decision and actually yesterday we signed an agreement with the OECD for country strategy program, and we made a decision that Kazakhstan will be a full member of OECD, whatever it takes. And I think the structural reforms during the hard time is very important. And this is a unique opportunity for us, for Kazakhstan. And we believe we are constantly in a discussion with our strategic partners, with our friends from Russia, that they have the same idea, that structural reforms needed for Russia as well, as well as it is needed for Kazakhstan. With China, in December we had a visit of Prime Minister Lee and a couple of days ago, we had a discussion here in Davos as well. We will have a joint program for economic belt for New Silk Road. And we agree that it will be quite a heavy investment into the diversification of the economy in Kazakhstan, which will be linked to the Chinese economy, but at the same time, we have quite a good opportunity for the whole market with Russia and Kazakhstan. I just need to have you wrap up in the next 30 seconds, if I may. Yeah, okay, making this long story short, I think this is a unique opportunity for emerging markets to restructure the economy and to get a growth, not in 2015, but to get a growth later, but more stable, thank you. Thank you for the input. Finance Minister Amaya Toukan, your import costs for energy have gone down. We have about a minute for your interjection. What did you learn from the panel here? And of course, Jordan sits on the doorstep of ISIS as well. There's a regional security threat. You're trying to get growth of 4% this year. What's the most important point for you in 2015? I really think 2015 should be good for oil importers, of course, including Jordan. We are an oil importer. It's working. Yeah, so by and large, the decline in oil price to 50 or 40 clearly should be good for the global economy. Of course, oil producers may face some challenges regarding the revenues for the budget. But what worries me really is that this decline in oil price, as well as what the ECB did yesterday, monetary easing or fiscal stimulus in some countries, are making people complacent. Already we have people in my country saying, let's relax the reforms and given this favorable circumstance. This is a serious issue. The other point I just want to make is that it seems the traditional measures to achieve growth, which is capital spending or investment spending, is not working anymore as expected. We're not creating jobs. And what seems to be, maybe it should be timely to think of looking at the history of the modern history, we need a major technological breakthrough to create jobs. Because the traditional capital spending, targeting capital projects is not working. It's not creating enough jobs. And maybe it's time to think of a more non-traditional ways to create jobs and achieve growth. Thank you, Dr. Chukhan. In fact, the International Labor Organization came out with its youth unemployment report this week and the pressure after the Arab Spring only made matters worse, as everybody knows. But the youth unemployment rate is nearly 30%. The Middle East or North Africa, it is a crisis, as you are suggesting. Any other questions from the floor? We have about a minute before we wrap. Please, we can get a microphone here. And there's one here. Yeah, I have to ask you, because I promised the Deputy Prime Minister he would be out of here now. So let's keep it direct. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for giving me the opportunity. Thank you. And I want to thank you right at the panel. I would request Morris Levy about his vision on India and China. But he has experienced on the, recently we had a plan about Silk Route. You know, the Silk Route when I was in New York, I was attending the Silk Route and I got this message to go to G20 meeting and it took off and China is financing 40 billion on this particular deal. So I was wondering, China, India, as the world is changing around, everybody talks about these two countries. What is your vision on this particular? We have a new Prime Minister in India. He's trying to jumpstart the economy. Thank you. Exactly, we have a new Prime Minister in India who seemed to be addressing all the major issues. But you know that part of the problem in India, there are many problems. One very important problem is infrastructure. And it is a shame to see that India has not yet been able to build some very modern infrastructure. The other problem is the problem we know about corruption. But when you look at the whole aspect of India, there is a lot of reason why you should be very positive about the country. We have just made a very important investment. India will be our second country in terms of the size of our headcount. The number one country will be the US with roughly 30,000 people. In India, we will have 13,000 people. And then come China with 7,000 or 8,000 people. And France is becoming our fourth country in terms of size. So you see that we are believing in India and we are investing. So I think provided that you address the real issues and that you address these issues very seriously and without any complacency, I think you will have the support of the investors. Okay, final interjection from the floor. Excuse me, I have to wrap up. Sorry about that. I don't mean to be rude, but you can talk after. Final interjection very quickly, please. Yes, I'm Sagar from Mogudisha Somalia. I'm a member of a young global shepherds community. My question is Mr. Motsabe. We've seen a lot of help coming from Africa, especially when it comes security. But also there are so many other helps and approaches coming from other countries, from, for example, Turkey. And also we see now a new investing opportunities from China. When are we seeing Africa and money coming to Somalia when it comes businesses and economic growth other than the security contribution that they have right now? Thank you. I mean, we're very confident of the future of East Africa and Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and one of our companies is indeed looking at those parts of the world. And there's a new breed of entrepreneurs from Nigeria, from sub-Saharan Africa, and young entrepreneurs, small businesses, but also significant companies, some of them in partnership with Chinese, American, European, and so you will see a significant amount of investments in the medium to long term. Okay, very quickly, 30 seconds. For Somalia, just an example, actually, but if we really have some dedication and some good targeted work, the progress could be real fast. When we had, we started the scheduled flights to Mogadishu, the Mogadishu Airport was listed as terminally closed. So we had to rebuild the airport, the road from airport to downtown, now building three hospitals and so forth. And I think if that psychological barrier is passed and if the population and the outside help is united, then it becomes a very strong answer to terror and violence and so forth, which has been demonstrated, I think in a very nice way recently in Somalia. Thank you very much. I want to thank our deputy prime ministers for the great interjections in our entire panel. Thank you for the inputs from the floor, prime minister and finance minister in particular. A nice round of applause and thank you very, very much for your time.


triple through wedged mortise and tenons. Part three. Parts one and two we talked about using the router to cut these mortises by using a template. We discussed squaring the mortises on both sides. Part two we discussed some of the principles of what we needed to do to those mortises. One of which was make sure that on the entry side it is wider than on the exit side. That way we can push a tenon through there. It'll fit but it'll just squeeze out on the other side and that's exactly what we want. We want the tenon to be the same size as the first half inch in here and for that tenon to be right up against those walls. All right we also discussed when you're tapering in order to accommodate the splitting with it with the wedges that that taper needs to go all the way down in a straight line to almost the bottom. In other words if I'm an inch and a half up here and an inch and a quarter down below then I need that to go almost the way down. I can't just go with the first half an inch or inch in and then have it go straight down from there. Otherwise the wedge won't be able to go down deep enough to spread the outside edge over to the wall. All right so now we're in part three and we're talking about fitting the tenons for the mortises. The first thing that I do and I've already done it I'm just going to talk about it is I use my Veritas dual marking gauge and I go from a common reference point in this case the top. Adjust my marking devices to where they just bridge that mortise and then with that all set then I go and it's gone here now so I can't do it. Then I go to the top edge of my tenon piece and I mark where that tenon is going to be and that should be awfully precise so I have this part here. I've marked off all three tenons and then I need to get that cut somehow. I can cut it by hand that's a lot of work particularly when you're talking about so many of these connections. I could do it a number of different ways. The way I like to do it is to I have power tools so I want to use them so I take this to the bandsaw and I push this across the bandsaw making sure that I stay in the waist area of my line. In other words when I'm done cutting on the bandsaw I can still see my lines and that my lines should be the exact width that I want so as long as I can still see them then what I start doing is I start paring down to the lines and when I get pretty close then I start measuring like crazy so if this is my tenon number three this is my mortise number three this mortise size wise so that's like point eight three so if I measure this then I'm at like point eight seven point eight eight well point eight eight will not fit into point eight three so I don't even need to try I see a lot of people trying and trying and till they finally get to fit well use some calipers just you know if you need to measure two or three times to convince yourself that your tenon is still bigger than your mortise then go ahead and do that furthermore my mortise on the other side is even less so if I measure number three here mortise number three I get them all labeled with little tape so I know which tenon is going into which mortise and that's like point eight zero and so I need to get this down to where it'll fit in and end up at point eight zero now the part that I want to focus on since I have about a quarter of an inch half an inch here that will stick out is I'm dealing with this area right here that is going to be somewhere in there is going to be right at my outside edge in other words when they come out here that's going to be somewhere between these two lines what I do is I make that my area that once I get it to be equal to my outside mortise hole I make very sure I don't sand it chisel it file it or do anything to it again once I get at the right size to fit my outs my exiting part of my mortise then it is religiously left alone furthermore the outside edges of my mortise are not to be touched because I'm trying to get everything to fit that once I decide that this area right here is equal to this area here then I don't touch either one of them I might have to go inside here to carve out my inner walls but I do that by taking my chisel below the lip and then try to make that wall convex so don't touch it don't touch the edge don't touch the critical area so all the rest of this can be chiseled away until I know that it's small enough to fit into my mortise I don't even care if this is smaller down here than it is at my critical spot because that won't be seen I'll have a blind area here where everything closes up and that's all inside of the of the the joint this is what's seen this is what I want to look like I know what I'm doing so that's where I am that's what I do I just continue to chisel away usually going you know in this way watching my grain splitting make sure I don't get too big of a chunk coming off getting down to my lines measure measure measure measure measure measure measure when I finally feel like it's equal to or less than my mortise then I'll I'll try the fit I I want to sneak up on it I don't want to end up overshooting it and then finding out that in my critical area it is too small compared to the critical area of my mortise which is the actually this side here which is where it's going to come out so I want this exactly equal to this and everything else doesn't matter so much so when I say that you can round over these edges but if you going to do that start beyond your line start beyond your sacrosanct area don't touch this area do it back here so around these edges make sure the corners are nice and clean round over the entry edges so you don't have a nice sharp piece trying to push through that mortise and catching on some little piece in there you might have to keep coming back and cleaning up the inside of your mortise but again don't touch the exiting face perfectly okay to touch the interior face the face where you're going to enter so I just keep doing that until it fits then I look for any gaps that I might have anywhere here and whether or not it's closing up nice and tight I'm not going to go into that in this video but I do have another video called how to use your feeler gauges in order to close up any gaps in your joinery that's the end of part 3 I hope if you're going to do the samurai carpenter workbench or something that's similar with triple through wedge mortise and tenons that this series of three videos will help you do that small workshop guy signing off


Today, we're going to talk about the Flying Embers Hard Kombucha. What's happening? NJRoot22.com here with another low carb keto carnivore chat slash booze review. And this is by request. Some people have asked me to check out the hard kombucha spiked drinks. And in this case, I never even looked at one until recently. I saw the package. It was zero sugar, zero carbs. It was a immediate interest for us. And it also had a decent amount of alcohol, four, four and a half percent for the standard size and anywhere from six to seven to eight percent for other, I guess, black label flavors. My opinion of the kombucha, I don't drink the kombucha tea. It has a lot of benefits, people say. And I never really got into it because it was just an expensive flavored drink for us. And that same is true with this seltzer. It's $24, a 12 pack where I can get 10 bucks less, a 12 pack, like a decent Michelin Baltra or Smirnoff zero sugar seltzer. So the cost already is a factor for us. However, there are some pretty interesting benefits. Number one, you have to like the flavor. To us, it had a, it was reminiscent of like an apple cider vinegar type taste, but it wasn't nearly as bad as some of those apple cider vinegar is no way even close. It actually, it grew on us and we actually enjoyed the flavor as we went through them. But the most important thing for us to mention is that the effects it had on our digestion. I guess these, maybe I drank a lot of them, so it had a super charged effect on our digestion. But my goodness, it was like I got a high colonic the next day. Things came out of me that were, must have been stuck in me for weeks. You could tell.  It did for us at least. I don't know if everybody gets cleaned out the way we did, but it was an amazing effect. I felt like a million bucks too. Hangovers aren't perfect. I have had some bad hangers if I drank too many of them, especially those black label ones which are very much higher in alcohol. You got to hydrate when you drink. So that's the bottom line. I like these. And what we're going to do, instead of making it like a night of hard kombucha, we're probably going to experiment to see, can I still get those probiotic benefits by drinking one? Maybe start off the night with one, or maybe end the night. I never know when my last drink is. Is it better to drink this kombucha probiotics at the end and sleep on it, or is it better just to get it in your system because the way those bacteria works, it doesn't get flushed out when you drink more fluid or eat any food. So that's it. We're going to keep it in rotation. We're going to buy a 12 pack and drink maybe one maximum two on nights we drink just to keep the probiotics in our system. But it would cost us thousands of dollars more a year if we made this our go to daily drink. We just can't afford to do that right now unless I get monetized and people help me here. Please hit the like button and all that other stuff. So that's it. The Flying Embers Hard Kombucha, we recommend it, but it's up to you how often you want to drink it.


What were my top 10 picks for eyeshadow palettes in 2021? We're going to start that video right now. Hello, my friends. I am so glad that you're here with me today. This is a fun video because eyeshadow palettes is always something that we makeup lovers seem to just dive headlong into. They're so much fun and I wanted to make this a separate video just like I'm going to make the foundation a separate video. We are going to be swatching quite a few, so we better get into that video right now. All right, we're going to do this in a countdown style. So in it, number 10 is from ColourPop, and it is the Stone Cold Fox Palette. This palette is one that kind of just ticks all the boxes for a neutral lover's dream. And this is something that can go warm neutral, cool neutral, or just plain neutral. It is a beautiful palette and it has that great ColourPop formula that we all look for. So many of these are very buttery, very high beam, and I just think this palette knocked it out of the park as far as covering so many different tones that you need when you're looking at neutrals. We have the cool, the very, very cool, and then we go into a very neutral. I'll just swatch just a few of them so you can see. So this to me would be the part that is very, very cool toned, very muddy looking. I love that about it. When it looks like it's just got that grayish tone to it. Soft and buttery. I love these, they're just that good. And then they even had just a little bit of the pinks in here, or not really pinks, kind of mauvey colors. It kind of ticked that box about them being more along the lines of the cool neutrals. So I love these neutral tones. They're just so pretty. There's the mauvey tones that I was talking about. So beautiful. Definitely gonna have to raise my sleeve here. And then the next one would be more along the lines of just a basic neutral, which I think that they did very well in here too. I love ColourPop Shadow Formula. If you've never had a chance to try them before, they truly are just this gorgeous buttery formula that sticks around. They're very easy to blend. I just think that they're next level. And this palette was one that I just really gravitated towards and I wore it a ton this year. Another palette that I picked up this year that actually didn't have anything to do with coming out this year or anything like that. But I personally got it for the first time and it's the Persona Identity Palette, the original. This palette just stole my heart because I loved the formula.  But I'm telling you that these worked for me and I could layer them together and make them look so pretty. And I think that's what I love. The other thing is that I love the shimmers in here. They're super buttery and super soft. And even though I have a little bit of texture across my eyelids, they didn't make it look like texture at all. And they are just stunners. The mattes in here are super duper silky. And I just thought that they did a really great job on this palette all the way around. As you can see right there from just those swatches, what a gorgeous, beautiful rendering of colors for neutrals there are in here. And I really liked that those weren't chunky at all. None of the shimmers were chunky. They just left this beautiful swath of metallic across there. Some of them weren't as shimmery as others, which is really good when you have textured eyelids as well. And I just really loved this one so much. That was number nine in it. Number eight is the Tartlet Full Bloom. And I actually did a video on using this one in the video. And I will make sure that I link that for you. But this just was so gorgeous. And I know that everybody said, it's because you were drawn to the purple on the front. Melissa, well, that might be true. But there were some gorgeous mauve tones in here as well. And I really fell in love with this palette. The formula is every bit what Tartt's formula is. It's very soft and it's very buttery. But I loved that they gave us so many options in this palette. It reminds me very much almost of the Stone Cold, but you're not seeing those options as much because it's set in a gold background. So it might look a little bit extra warm to you. Whereas there are warms in here, but it's pinks and mauves and cool tones. And I just fell in love with it completely. So here are the swatches for it. What I liked about this palette is that it truly wasn't too pigmented. And you might think that that is weird. But when you're light tone skin, light to medium, sometimes the shadows that you wear can get so dark so quickly. And that was really a worry for me with these. But these just really are buildable, but they don't go on so stark in the beginning that you're going to get your look looking too dark, too fast. And so I really appreciated that one. And at number seven are the little palettes that came out from Essence. The one that I loved the most was the Tope It Up. And then I really liked to mauve it, mauve it. One as well. I really liked to mauve it, mauve it. Anyway, I just love that this was such a muted mauve toned palette. It has some of the prettiest colors in it. And I really fell in love with this. And it is one of those ones that, again, you don't have that stark in your face right off the bat look. You get these muted tones that you can build up, but you also don't have to have them so stark. And these are just beautiful mauve tones. They're not like deep purple tones or anything like that. They're just cool mauve tones. And then, of course, the Tope One is quite cool as well. This one is gorgeous for all of these beautiful grays in here. I like that you almost had to work at building these up again because you have to be careful when you're very light-skinned, but it will deepen up really well with that darkest color in here. So I would say that if you're anybody that has been needing those muted tones or those lighter tones in your wardrobe for your eyeshadow, this is gorgeous. And these palettes were really good. And at number six is the mainstage palette from LA Girl Cosmetics. This one is the Desert Dream Mainstage. And these colors are so vibrant and so beautiful. And I wore this a lot in the summertime. However, I am taking a combination of these two colors right here on my eyelids today. And then these two colors down here, just to darken up a little bit on the outer part of the lid. The formula of LA Girl, if you haven't tried these yet, rich, buttery, gorgeous, beautiful formula. And I can't say enough about how buttery the mattes are. They're just extremely beautiful. But the stars are obviously the shimmers because they're so buttery and so beautiful that they do not show up texture. And that's what I love about them. Let me just swatch five of those for you as well. Just a gorgeous formula. And I really fell in love with them. And you can tell that they're going to be very rich and pigmented. But what you can't tell on the camera is how easily blendable they are. These are ones that stick around. And especially if you use a really good eye primer, I use Anastasia Beverly Hills Eye Primer. And it is one that just makes everything budge-proof for me all day long. So if you're wondering how to make your shadows extra vibrant and how to have them stick around, Anastasia Beverly Hills is the ticket. So this is a beautiful palette that I absolutely loved. And at number five is the Violet Voss Cool Vibes palette. This one, I really feel like this is a really good mix of cool and neutral. And it does have this shade right in here, which really does carry off quite warm. I find that if you have one warm shade, one that you feel like you just can't work with because you feel like you're too cool tone, if you put that in your transition and really super buff that out, that's what I've done today on that. I used that palette, this palette today. And this is what I used for the neutral colors on my eye. And then this is what I used from LA Girl for the colorful part of my eye today. But it's just one of those palettes. Again, Violet Voss's formula is so good. It's so buttery. It's so creamy. And I really have enjoyed working with it. It's been something that I hadn't tried before. And so using her formula was really fun for me. And again, we have a lot of lighter colors in here that we can work with. But if you're deeper, you're going to have a great time with this palette because it has those deep, beautiful tones. Now, this is very much like the Natasha Junona Glam palette. That one does have more colors in it than this one does. But if you've been thinking about the Natasha Junona and you couldn't afford it, this might be a great option for you. And I just think that those are just some stunning, stunning colors. I was really drawn to a lot of neutral tone palettes this year. I didn't hardly have any in my eyeshadow collection at all. And then I just found that I was drawing more and more towards those because I wanted to try formulas, but also because I was kind of toning down what I was wearing. And even though I do love to wear a colorful look like this, when I want to reach for just something that is just neutrals, the browns, the grays, that kind of thing, it's going to be one of those palettes and that Violet Voss Cool Vibes ticks off all the boxes for me. I love that thing. Number four, this one, I don't know if it's still available. I am crossing my fingers and hoping that you guys can still get this because I love this palette. This is Smitten in Switzerland from BH Cosmetics. This is a fabulous palette. Everything about this palette I love. I love that it is so many different colors, but do you see how muted they are compared to some of the color palettes that you get today? So if you are somebody that likes doing a pink, you can do that. If you like doing a green, if you like doing blue, if you like silver, you have so many choices in here, but you also can go down the road of just neutrals. I've done that with this palette as well. This is a beautiful, almost a khaki gray, and it leans very, very cool toned in. I love that about it. This one right here, you would think that that would be a very stark pink, but let me show you what it is. It's not super dark. It's a very muted pink, and then you have the other tones in here that are just so pretty. I love the greens in here. The greens in here, that khaki gray green right there, I love wearing that one because it really pulls cool tone. So this palette is another one that I love. I really like all of these ones that they named after cities and places because the formula in it was so good from BH Cosmetics. I had really, really fallen in love with the formula. So that is in it number four. Then in it number three, the Natasha Ginona Retro Palette. This has been talked about so much, and everybody knows that Natasha Ginona has a great formula, but I really never got swept into even the one that I have that is her, oh, what is it called? The Glam palette with all the neutral tones and even the tones that lean cool. I liked that, but it wasn't like my favorite in the world, but this one, this one just has the potential to do so many things for me because I love to wear a pink eyeshadow. I love wearing it. I love burgundies and pinks and that kind of thing, but you absolutely have the neutral tones in here, and then you get these warmer tones in here, which work. They, even if you don't normally like warm tones, they work really well for me. This palette I debated back and forth, and when it came out, I was like, I'm not picking that up because I really didn't think that it was for me. I thought that it was gonna be one that was just a little bit redundant for my collection, but I'm so glad I did because the colors are just incredibly beautiful. And I feel like this palette of many of her palettes that I had the chance to pick up, this palette was one that I could just work with so easily and create different looks with and really have enjoyed it so very much. And that was one that, again, I was a holdout. I just didn't think I needed this, but I'm really glad that I went ahead and got it because I feel like it's a really beautiful addition to my eyeshadow. And at number two is the Lust for Desk palette. This palette completely stole my heart. I love this palette. This is a palette that I can get so many looks out of. I felt again like it was going to be too warm, but even this color down here that is a very light peach, I can wear that and it look really good. I love the real peach that's in here, the very, very peach one. There is just some stunner colors in here. Colors that I, if I was making a palette, I never would have put together, but I'm here to tell you they come together and they go together so well. Every one of these surprised me. There are so many different, like, duo-chromes, trichromes, different textures, different possibilities in this palette. I can't even begin to tell you how many different possibilities there are from using this palette. I really fell in love with it and it was one of those. I want to just swatch this one. This is probably my favorite color in here. It's just a very, very different color. It's not like white. It's almost like a light, bleached color and it's so pretty. So the formula, again, it's a beautiful color pop formula. Very easy to blend, very easy to work with. And yes, it was one of those ones that I really love. Can you guess what my number one pick is? I went gaga over this palette as soon as it came out and it's the Rose Quartz from Hoda Beauty. This palette is insanely me. I mean, when I say that, it is just the kind of palette that I would have put together if I could have put a palette together. Maybe I would have put in a little bit more bluer purples in here and there, but together this palette is a stunner.  It's gorgeous. And then down here, this is one of the colors that I put on one of my videos that I really adore. This is a color that shifts colors and it is incredible on your eyelid. I'm looking at my little viewfinder. Pardon me. It is beautiful. And then she really did some fantastic mattes in here too. She I love this pink that she put in here because it's light enough for me to use as a base and then put some of those other shimmers over top of. She did a great job with that one and you can hardly see it, but it is really pretty on my eyes. Get other textures in here, which are stunners. Look at the reflect on that. So it's almost like it's a taupe. It's a purple. It's a mauve. What is it? It's just so pretty. These are really great formulas. Really beautiful colors that I would never have thought to put together, but she did a great job. That is like a dusty mauve, deepened mauve. So pretty. And then this one out here, which is the super deep one. I love working with this one because it has again just hints of mauve in it, but it's dark gray and it's almost like a gunmetal gray type color. This is a stunning palette. Everything she did in here, I love. She does this swirl one right here in the corner. This is a gorgeous pink that can brighten up just about any look. And I'm running out of places. It's just really pretty. All of them are special, special shadows. And I have never been that impressed with her shadows before. I didn't get the naughty palette because I felt like it was going to be way too warm. I got the mercury in retrograde, which I've already decluttered because it just didn't work for me. But this palette, every time I pick it up, I feel creative. And I feel like I'm going to get a beautiful look out of it. And every look has been stunning so far. So I would highly recommend this if you've been thinking about it. It's one of those palettes that I don't think you can go wrong with. Her packaging is beautiful this time. It just worked out so good for me. Okay, that's it for the top 10 palettes that I purchased this year. Let me know what your favorite palette is this year. I would love to hear that in the comment section from you. Thanks everyone for being with me for another installment of the Favorites of 2021. We have a couple more to go through. I really hope that you're enjoying this. Pretty soon we'll be back to the regular tutorials. I have a couple that I've been saving up and I'm excited to bring to you as well. Hope everybody is doing well. Please give this video a thumbs up on your way out of here. If you would do that for me, please. I love you all so very much. I hope I get to see you back here again very soon at my next video. Goodbye, my friends.


Coming up on The Sporting Chef, today on the show I'm going to make stuff out of ground game. Also on the show today we have Susie, Willie, Stacey, C-dub, and Buddy. I've got a few things to do with your ground fishing game like venison lettuce wraps, salmon burger, duck burger. I love to entertain a lot at home and I know you guys do. So we're going to make guessel. That's our beet, spot prawn, shiitake mushroom plate. Fish stock is super easy to make and it's going to be better than anything you're going to find in the stores. We're going to start smelling the pesto and we'll have dutch oven, baked onions with pesto and olive oil. And I got to missing that moofa laura. Spell that M-U-F-F-laura.


In this video, you're going to learn how to create a customer journey map in an online tool called Smapply. Let the show begin. Hi, I'm Arkand. Welcome to the Service Design Show. This show is all about helping you to build organizations that put people at the heart of their business. And one way to do it is by using customer journey maps to drive change and innovation. And if you've ever been in a customer journey mapping project, you know that it's really hard to actually use journey maps on a day to day basis. Usually you do a workshop with posters, sticky notes, brown paper, stuff like that. And then after the workshop, it's really hard to continue iterating on the map. Well, there are tools out there to actually help you to do that. We've looked at some other tools in the previous videos. And in this video, I want to show you how Smapply, the tool that we're going to discuss today, can help you to build maps that you can actually use on a day to day basis. So this video isn't about how to create a customer journey map or what is a customer journey map. If you're interested in that, check out the videos over here because we explained that over there. This video is really about showing you how to use Smapply in the basic building blocks blocks in Smapply to build a customer journey map. And we're going to do that in two videos. This first video is a walkthrough video of those basic elements. And in the second video, which you can find over here, we're going to sort of look at the more advanced features and give a wrap up on conclusion and give my perspective on when I think Smapply might be the right tool for you. Smapply also offers some advanced features like creating personas and stakeholder maps. We're not going to dig into that in this video, we're just going to look at customer journey mapping. Now on a final note, this video isn't sponsored by Smapply in any way, this is just purely my experience and opinion. I did reach out to Smapply to see if they would be willing to offer some kind of a discount code for you, the viewer, and they did. So if you reach out email Smapply using on this email address and say that you watch this video and want to start using the tool, they will offer you a one month free account with all the features they have. The normal free account is limited in some features, but they also have paid plans and you'll get access to those paid plans. If you just email them over here and let them know that you've watched this video. So let's jump straight in. I'll share my screen with you and let's start creating a customer journey map in Smapply. So here we are. This is my Smapply dashboard. I'm already logged in and I've created a customer journey map over here. This is what we're going to try to recreate. As always, we have a going to the zoo example. This is not intended to make a full-fledged customer journey map. It's not about the actual journey. It's about using the tool, but I want to show you what we'll be creating. So Smapply has projects and this is our project and in this project we have a persona. We don't have any stakeholder maps and we have one customer journey map. It looks like this. Super basic, not a lot of information in here. We're going to try to recreate what we have over here. So let's do it. First of all, I'm going to create a new project.  And as you'll see, we don't have a customer journey map yet. So let's do that. And we'll call this just going to the zoo journey. They offer templates. Of course, you can use them, but we're not going to do this over here because we want to start from scratch. Let's create the journey. Now, the first thing you'll see is that Smapply, contrary to tools like Miro of Mural, offers you some kind of guidance. There are a lot of tips, tool tips like this one or here that explain what you need to do. So Smapply tries to really aid and help you in creating a map. Now it starts with stages here up top, which is really good because that's one of the first things we want to do. We want to create four information lanes and stages is one of them. So let's create three stages and we'll use the most basic one, the before stage. And of course, we have the during stage. And guess what? We have the post. Let's call it the after the zoo stage. Great, three stages. Now, the next thing I would like to add to this map is the customer activities. So what is it that the customer is actually going through? Now we're sort of stuck. We cannot add any lanes, information lanes right now. The first thing we need to do in Smapply is create a persona. That's one of the requirements in using Smapply and using customer journey maps in Smapply, you need to have a persona, which might be a good thing or not depending on your situation. But let's call this persona the unassigned persona, create new one, earn patient dead. And we're going to pick an icon and we're picking icon. Well, this one looks familiar. Let's pick this one. A guy with glasses. So there we have it. We have our persona. And now we have the journey map outline and we can start adding things. So the first thing we want to do is buy tickets, of course, before we go to the zoo. As you'll see, I can immediately, I have text box and can start adding things. So buy tickets. As you'll see, this is the first step in my stage before. I want to create a next step. So what happens? We're going to add a step, drive to the zoo. There we go. And we have a third one. Just for the sake of it, park the car. Now, as you see, we have three customer activities here in this lane. But they don't match with the stages up top. Because this is not jarring. This is not after. Luckily, Smuptly makes it really easy to make your cards, your lanes bigger and smaller. So now in our before stage, we can see that we have three customer activities. Awesome. Next thing we want to do is we want to create another lane. We want to add more information now. When I click add lane, you'll see I have eight options in total to choose what kind of lane do I want. The text line, storyboard, channels, emotional journey, dynamic arc, backstage, file lane, and a separator lane. There's a lot of information what these lanes do and when you should use them. We're going to add a storyboard lane because this one allows us to add images. So there we go. We're going to call this the storyboard. That's great. So let's say I've done some research and I have some photos from research that I want to show in this step and buy tickets. Now, you can upload your own photos over here. You can use photos from other images over here. But they also have a library of photos that you can use, not photos, but actually illustrations that Smuptly has created, black and white ones, as you'll see over here, quite a lot, colors, it's loading, and color illustrations. Finally, they have integrated with the noun project, which is a pretty cool icon library that has a lot of icons.  Let's pick this one. And that allows me to customize the foreground. So let's see in the background as well. But I don't want to customize the background. Let's leave it white. So I'll insert an image over here. Of course, use your own images, drive to the zoo. Let's see if I can find something of a car. There it is, a car, crop, and upload. So this way you can add the research data to these stages. Now, there are two more lanes that I'd like to create. I'd like to create a lane where I express the needs in this specific step and the emotional curve, the sort of iconic lane of a lot of customer journey maps. So let's start with needs. Well, the needs can be just text lane. And we'll call this customer needs. And let's say now park the car, our need that there is clear navigation. There we go. That's what I want in that stage. As you'll see, it's really easy. I can do some basic formatting. I can make, can give it a different background color, or I can highlight stuff. So you can add some visual hierarchy to your map, which is really nice. Now, the final lane, the fourth lane that I want to create is the emotional curve. And they have a lane called emotional journey and a traumatic arc. You can read the details, what's the difference over here. But in my case, but in my case, I want to use an emotional journey. So emotional journey for the impatient dead. And there we go. And we need to double click to add points. There we go. And as you see, I can drag them around how happy or how sad it is. And that's how easy it is to create to create an emotional curved lane. So there we have it. Stages, customer activities, research data, customer needs and easy text cards and an emotional curve. Now that's how easy it is to create a basic structure of a customer journey map in Smappley. Of course, you can do much more, but this should get you going really quickly. In the next video, I want to show you some of the more advanced features of Smappley that I think are super important if you want to use it on a day to day basis, and also give my conclusion and the pros and cons. So if you're interested in that, check out this video where we'll continue our walkthrough through Smappley. See you over here.


Hi, good morning and welcome to today's products and focus and today's all about the Fed meeting today at 6 p.m UK time where we're going to be getting a statement from giant yelling which may or may not drop the word Patient from the rhetoric in regards to Monetary policy and raising rates in the uiF. So trade is beginning to take a Position that it might be a kind of a half hearted measure as in they might remove the word patients but retain the fact that macro data needs to be in the Correct kind of state before they choose to raise rates We should be more closer to a September rate hike rather than June, which would be one of the earlier Months for this to happen. So we've seen a little bit of volatility yesterday following Moves on the dollar overnight. We're moving up a little bit again today Most global markets a little bit toppy right now And with the UK you've got the the budget as well. So that should be relatively interesting to get a bit of flavor as to What the UK is gonna have coming along for the next couple of the next couple months So I mean moving on to the US 30 you can see there at 17 895 remains the potential resistance We're sandwiched in between two moving averages. You've got the 21 the 55 period moving average in the 21 period moving average Whereas most of the technicals are relatively neutral. So Could be range bound Until we get a break of either either direction just now. So moving on to the UK 100 You can see that you had a last couple of decent sessions. We had a good session yesterday a Failure to break higher already this morning, but it's just all papers are slightly Could also be kept by that 21 period SME. I kind of a similar Similar style to the US 30 where you're sandwiched in between the two moving averages with the 67 71 being potential support and 6906 being potential Resistance so moving on to Japan to do five it's still going from strength to strength Bank of Japan came out yesterday Corruda with a statement saying that they were still going to hold back on some more of the More hardcore stimulus that they need to use it in the future. They they will but they'd rather not right now and that's Causing a little bit of upwards momentum and Japan to do five people taking that as a signal that the Japanese economy is doing That a little bit better And we are almost halfway now between potential support at 18648 and potential resistance of 2868 And still still going strong as dollar yen still it's unable to break through 121 80, but it is just getting that little bit closer. So they've been running about 121 40 for the last couple of sessions In fact, if we go ahead and have a look at dollar yen, you can see exactly what I'm talking about It's just flattening out consolidation Consulate consul there to remove 121 87 if the Fed comes out with a particularly bullish statement or hawker statement tonight You might see that breakout. Otherwise, you might see a little bit of a drift as we move that little bit lower So many traders talking about crude all West Texas right now. We broke through potential support at 43 30 We had another break yesterday We are floating around 4250 right now. It's not been that unbelievable strong technical breakout But it is a breakout nonetheless. Yesterday does still look like a, you know, a three or four percent move right there And the next potential support is at 35 30 So crude elementaries are also due today So West Texas will be Invoked today as ever Gold will be waiting for the Fed statement as ever moving down a little bit lower again 1137 is a potential support Longly candles indicative of selling pressure goals. Just can't get a break right now All depends on the language utilising the Fed statement tonight Finishing up the red all on GBP USD. So your dollar has had its third day of gains including today But it's not looking as as aggressive as it was yesterday We could be just be getting a slight retracement before we start or move back down towards one spot Zero two as ever depends what Janet Yellen comes out with today. And if we finish up with GBP USD Another move to the downside last night. So breaking through one spot 48 13 again Longer term potential support is all the way down one spot 42 43 If we do get any sort of retracement up to one spot 40 13 that could be an exclusive to sell if you think that GBP USD is going to get the pressure or if we break above that you could target one spot 51 85 We do have that death cross on the moving averages to bear in mind as well So I come with data wise we talked about we've got the Bank of England minutes It's not supposed to have anything that exciting unemployment claims due as well at 9 30 And then you've got the crude oil inventories due there at 2 30 because of the time difference and the fomc statement at 6 p.m UK time again because of the time difference there and that's the one that everybody's going to be watching today And it's all about the wording of the statement Will they will they drop the word patients or not? And will they tie it into a specific metric of macro data? Coming out of the US or not and that makes a big difference because obviously apart from non-vampirals the rest of the data has been very mixed at best fast forwarding on to thursday you've got employment claim data at 12 30 and then you've got the philly fed And then on friday, you've got german cpi and uk public finances and remember today is the budget in the uk So you should see some interesting moves in cable So keep your eye on the chart form as ever making so it's probably going forward and join me again tomorrow to find out what happened next