The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN, 9.06 a.m. Monday. We got about 30 minutes to go until the start of trading and we pick up right where you left off Friday. You talk about an acceleration, man, putting things into a 15 minute chart. It was a one-way trip Friday. Amazing that it took until 10.15. The Chairman's speech, eight minutes. I've been here all along, watching Bloomberg over the weekend this morning early. Eight minutes speech, he chose to be short and to the point, remarkable though, that the market actually dropped about 30 to 40 points, got it all back for a bit. And then everybody decided, yeah, he had a few words to say and they were very important to the side of higher rates coming at you. And last night we opened, basically we're out right now and you've been chopping around. So futures, I was pretty interested to see where futures opened last night when you had the S&Ps down almost 3% on Friday. This morning, you're down about 8-10%. NASDAQ was down almost 4%. You're down another percent this morning. Not many days, you see a slide like that. I mean, there was no reprieve yesterday, Friday. No reprieve. You could say you got a consolidation between 11.15 in the morning and 1.00 p.m. Eastern time and look how the day closed out on the NASDAQ, man. I mean, these are 15-minute bars, folks, and you only have three of them all day. And from one o'clock on, you didn't have a single green bar the whole day. In the final three hours of trading, the S&Ps managed to barely get a green bar over that time. But as you see, markets open negative is gonna be an interesting open to say the least. Bitcoin catching some headlines this morning under 20,000. This blue line on Bitcoin I have here, that is where futures open five years ago. You could say a critical area there, Bitcoin. Now, they've been down at these lows before. June, we had 18,500 somewhere in there. We're trading at 19,700. But always interesting when you're under the price level that futures began trading at almost five years ago for Bitcoin. Ethereum, 1458 trading lower as well this morning. Everything gap low last night. Gold catching a little bit of a bid this morning from 1731 to 1748. You see that run there? They're talking about in the den. We're all gonna become commodity traders, man. Just remarkable action across the board. There's natural gas dropping a bit. We had a 10 handle last week on natural gas. Won't talk some volatility, man. There's some volatility chopping around near the recent highs, 906 down 21 cents for natural gas this morning. And we checked to the crude contract that was looking. Crude, up a bit, 93.99 last week we're at 95.76. And we jumped to notes and bonds as we got lower price and higher yield. The 10 year right now 3.1% about 3.097 to be exact. You were as low as 1.1628. So this market recoiling a little bit. We had higher yields coming at you. We're at 1.1707, but you've caught a bid to the tune of what, 10, 11 ticks off of the lows. So far this morning on the 10 year, the 30 years off almost a full point. It was off a full point at 1.1610 down 27 ticks for the 10 year, 30 years. Excuse me, did you jump over the VIX? And there's some action for you, man, on the VIX. Jumping back to it daily. Boy, you got that first leap about a week ago. And really, you bang out that week with quite a candle. We opened today at 27.09. And if you go back to the beginning of the year, we've only had one time where the VIX has spiked and we haven't hit the 30s, okay? And that was when we did get some type of spike in early April. They got the VIX up to about 25. But other than that, we've had three spikes of a market acceleration to a downturn. And every time you've had the VIX about eight to 10 points higher than even if we're at right now. Just to show you kind of what is possible. Markets catching a little bit of a bid off the lows, S&Ps down 29 off of being down negative 40 or more at one point. But nonetheless, that VIX, the Friday action of the VIX, today we opened a bit higher. You compare it to the spikes we've had recently. It's very possible that we're going higher than 27 folks. We have about three full weeks until we're talking about a Fed meeting, okay? So there's ample time for the market to get ahead of whatever they think may be coming. Now, maybe you pull back in terms of the market action up until that Fed meeting. Maybe you'll pull back just until we get some economic data, which we're gonna begin getting as we come into September. We're coming into, of course, a long weekend next weekend. Markets closed one week from today. We come back Tuesday, September 6th, and you are two weeks away from when that Fed meeting begins, September 20th. So where does the market head ahead of that? We're gonna find out in about 20 minutes from right now when we get it open. Let's jump to some of the headlines we got this morning. Future sink, treasuries fall on policy outlook. That's one way to put it, man. The other headline out there I was reading this morning, rally hopes crumble as Powell's rates reality hits full force. Now you could say that the market had no reason to be surprised, right? That what the chairman said was pretty reasonable stuff that they're not gonna pause just yet. You know, the idea that they're gonna begin cutting, it's all gonna be data dependent. And what you have to remember is that the last CPI print that we were dealing with is 8.5%. You add up those two, you add up the fact that we have a jobs number that's adding what, 500,000 jobs for the month of July, inflation at 8.5%. You better believe that they're probably gonna have their foot on the pedal for some foreseeable time, to say the least. So we jump from there. Let's just jump into some of the headlines this morning and we'll kick it off. Unfortunately, no launch this morning. So the Artemis-1 rocket launch suspended. There was a story out there from the AP early this morning that they had cracks potentially. Now, no humans, no people on this actual rocket. Okay, that's not landing on the actual moon itself as well, but still you wanna be safe. And man, I was reading about this thing, right? So check out the amount of cash that this thing has burned in and I am all about spending money on science folks when you, especially, let's put it this way, we should be able to understand this all of us anyway, but especially when you have a child and you start running the numbers of, I am 42 right now. My son is one. My son is gonna be about 30 years old in the year 2050. He's gonna be my age in the year 2063, right? 2063, you wanna believe in science folks because the leaps ahead that we can make during that time, pretty amazing to think what it comes with. So this one though, boy, you talk about some delays, man. Now, in 2012, they estimated it was gonna cost $6 billion to develop, debut in 2017 and carry a 500 million per launch price tag. It's only now debuting. It costs more than $20 billion. NASA's inspector general, its internal auditor earlier this year, said that Artemis is not the sustainable moon program that the agency's officials say it is. They found more than 40 billion has already been spent on the programs and projected NASA would spend 93 billion on the effort through 2025. I can't stand when people don't wanna spend money on science folks. There's nothing wrong with privatizing some of that. SpaceX is doing a great job. There's nothing also with spending some of the money that we have on a NASA program and scientists, okay? But you can still hold them accountable, man, because that's bonkers. As we know, sometimes in government, man, the big dig in Boston, right? We saw it firsthand in Boston, man. You wanna know how to spend some cash. 40 billion already, 93 billion to 2025. But here's the kicker of it all. Even that 2025 dates now in question, as the NASA's inspector general said the development technologies needed to land on the moon's surface are unlikely to be ready before 2026 at the earliest. Unfortunate to say the least, but this morning that gets scrapped and probably the right thing for safety. Think of the pressure on the people running that thing with all of the delays, right? To launch anyway, but thankfully you got us air with the side of safety. Stay tuned folks, we'll be back. We'll be talking some markets and what we have coming up this week. We'll be right back. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. 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We've got markets in negative territory. I'm gonna jump to the dollar real quick. You can talk about some moves, man, in currencies. Dollar index pushes 109 today. We give back almost a full point. Look at the action on a 15-minute basis, man. Now you look at the action on Friday, okay? From 107.58, almost two full points to where we were last night. 109.47, you give up almost a full point. Look at the action of the Euro-US Dollar. Not normally the type of action you get in currencies, folks. Euro on Friday, okay? Early, early. We're trading at 99.5. You make it up to one over parity, okay? And then what do you do? You trade from that point all the way down to 99. And then this morning, from about one in the morning, we were at almost 99. You just got above parity again. That's a full penny, which is just a mammoth, mammoth move in the forex market. I mean, you're getting pretty large moves in the tenure comparatively to the moves that you normally see. I mean, you're talking about a full point lower from where we were chopping around on Friday. Since the low is overnight, you're up about 10, 12 ticks. Currencies impacting, of course, markets, impacting commodities. You could make the case, folks, that the gold contract has held up pretty well when priced in dollars, considering the strength. Now, part of this pop here is the retracement of all that we just talked about there, okay? You've had some recoiling action. Gold was as low as 1731. We're at 1750 right now. If you ever do get dollar weakening, and I'm not saying you're getting it because I'm probably not placing that wage here right now, man, not on Monday morning with 10 minutes to go in the open following Friday's action, where the chairman came out and said, I'm gonna be as short as I can and make sure they don't have too many words to read through what I'm trying to tell them, which is inflation's out of control. They have two mandates, right? Full employment and price stability. Remember this, folks, the Fed has two mandates. If you remember this, it's pretty simple considering what the data is showing right now. They have two mandates, okay? They don't have three that includes a stock market reaching all-time highs. They have full employment, which of course is in some way tied to the market and it tied to the economy, but tough to make the case that we are not probably past full employment for a healthy economy. Part of the reason that inflation is raging, you could say is that we are past full employment or a healthy full employment. Nonetheless, full employment and what? Price stability. We have 8.5% inflation, we're gaining 500,000 jobs a month, okay? And we got unemployment at 3.6%. You gotta read the writing on the wall, man, and the data backs up that they do not need to pause right now when you're adding, I mean, we're adding 500,000 jobs a month, folks, okay? If that data starts to shift, yes, you could see a dramatic shift. The chairman is probably rightfully so betting that they have some room to go before they really have an impact on that inflation number. We're supposed to be at 2%, folks. Yeah, we might get down to four or three, but we're supposed to get to two. It's gonna take us a little time and the Fed, seems like they're trying to tell the market that they're gonna be vigilant and we'll see where the markets pick up this morning, whether we pick up with negative action with down 30 points right now on the S&Ps jumping back to some of the futures and those commodities and jumping to that 10-year. Let's just jump to the 30-year real quick because it is interesting when you take a look at the 30-year, you go back as far as you can, right? Could be a dominant sign for lower prices and higher yield potentially, maybe people flock into the little safety of risk off because boy, you break through that channel line, right? And an ode to our man, Bud Ross, the channel master, okay, and whether it's support, whether it's channel, I love the idea, because it makes a lot of sense. Yeah, let's go back out a five-year weekly to see that bar. And what do we do, folks? All we did is we came back and we tested that bar and traded lower. Well, Bud, what I was saying, man, you break through that line, right? That's not where you sell it, you wait for confirmation. What's the confirmation? The confirmation is you come back up, you test that line, then you trade lower. I mean, this is a monthly going back as far as I can see to 1999. That's a 23-year trend. And look how many times it perfectly touches this. Now, yeah, we missed it a couple of times, but pretty close in January of 2014 and in November of 2018, okay? But even if you take that line and you say to yourself, maybe it should be a little bit higher for linear regression, maybe we push it up to here or so, right? Whatever it is, pretty close to a pretty decisive action coming back, testing that line. If that's the case, man, boy, you talk about a rejection of that line. Doesn't get much cleaner than that rejection that we just saw on August 1st, touching that. You got five straight days of negative action on the 30-year. We just traded from 145 to 136 since we touched that line. Nine points, just like that. The moves are pretty amazing. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks and see how we're opening Monday. Probably gonna be negative action across the board. Apple, they're gonna give back about two bucks, man. There's a weekly. Let's put it back on a daily. Talk about a day, man. Apple, they got 16 billion shares traded. And on Friday's action, we'll put it to a 15 minute. They traded from 171. Today, you're at 161. Apple alone just gave up $160 billion in market capitalization. That's just amazing. There's not many companies out there worth more than $160 billion. Apple gave it up just from where you were Friday morning. Microsoft, they're down another three bucks this morning to 265. We jump over to Google shares, sitting at about 110 from 111. We jumped to Tesla. Pretty interesting that the market's getting a little bit of a lift right now. Only negative 27, kind of pushing where you were pre-market, almost session highs for the pre-market because you opened right at this level right now. We did make it to a high of about 4040 at about three in the morning. But even that couple of tails above that price we're trading right now at 4031. We jump over to Amazon shares, continuing to check it out. Amazon down about a dollar today. I was reading about Amazon and I made this remark on Friday and I do have Amazon in retirement, folks. I mean, everybody really does. I encourage you to, in the long term I just don't see how this company is not able to beat the multiples when they are just basically in everything. Now the story that got me going here is, where are we? Oh, don't do it to me now. Here we are. Yeah, so they just shut down their Amazon care, which was an internal program providing health and telehealth to their own employees. They just shut that down, but they acquired one medical earlier in the summer. Now this story here is about their one medical purchase, July of 2022 this year. So they acquired one medical and at that time people in the industry analysts, whatever it is, said one of them's gotta give because they're basically doing the same thing. One life, one medical, excuse me, is a niche player, almost like how they bought Whole Foods. So not exactly gonna take over the entire industry immediately with that deal, but nonetheless, as they put it, the Whole Foods of primary care, okay? One medical's clinics could eventually augment Amazon's virtual offerings by stitching together online consultations with in-person tests and treatments when needed. That's where it's going, man. There is so much potential here. Now it's interesting because they bought Pillpack a while back and they folded Pillpack into their own Amazon pharmacy, but this time they do it the other way around. So one medical, now the kicker of this all, okay? They've never turned a profit. They have more than 8,500 business clients and 767,000 patients, okay? So not even a million patients in the span of American healthcare, but nonetheless, it's an entry to them. And what's remarkable about this is some of the pullbacks we've had and some of the value that has been lost in these companies when you think about what they paid. Now, 3.49 billion is the purchase of one medical, okay? And that relates to about $18 a share. We're gonna finish this up when we get back, but one medical, as last year, traded as high as 59.82. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back. In a time of booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. So much for the drift to positive coming into the opening bell markets. Kind of spike a little bit on the open to negative prices, putting things on a five minute chart to get a closer look at it. There's your open sitting right now at 4,023, pretty much where we're chopping around. You look at this consolidation area overnight about a low of 4,015 to the upper boundary about 4,030 and we're square right in the middle of that. The S&Ps down 34 points right now. Jumping around to other headlines out there. We talked about yields. How about the two year, the highest level since 2007? Not bad if you want to get a little two year yield. Highest level since November of 2007. You got the two year in black there. You're pushing what? Just over 3%, I think that number is. Does it even tell us in here? Sure, I can pull it up. Maybe somebody in the den if they have, here we go. 3.48%. Not bad, 3.5% on a two year, man. Not bad right now. You think about market volatility and where you go. You can get 3.5%. You put it in there for two years. What's that? 7% that you're getting on the market that's still trading above 4,000 right now. 4,027. Keeping in mind that we were just trading at 3,600 about three months ago. That's a solid 10% below where we're trading at right now. We are right at the 3.82 of the bounce right now in the S&Ps. That level, about 4,015, and that is from the low. Oh, no, that is not the low to the high. Let's extend that. Let's activate that. Let's put that up to the top. Yeah, so we've blown through the 3.82 now. The 50% just under 4,000 and 3,900, man. If I was looking to wait even, and longer term, I'm not loading up the boat at all, but that's an area that I could much easier see a bounce. Potentially, if this market trades lower, I'd be much happier. Getting into an area of 3,900, maybe you set your stop somewhere below that because you break below 3,900. I would say you're at least trading another 100 points and then you go another 100 below that to 3,700 as they go with the S&Ps down about 30 points. But yeah, two year, 3.5%, not bad. Finished up that Amazon conversation real quick. So one medical, one life, which they own one medical, there's the stock there. So it comes out, Amazon's buying them about 18 bucks a share, 3. something billion dollars. But pretty remarkable, man. When you look at some of these companies, 59.82 Amazon gets them a year later for 18 bucks. Three billion and change, basically nothing to a company like that if they can transform it. Now, that article that I was reading talked about that they're also going to have to signify health now. So they're gonna be more in the buy-then-build mode for healthcare and probably not surprising, maybe considering how it went with Amazon care at home in terms of the one that they were doing for their own employees. Now, this is the article from when they purchased them, okay, 3.49 billion, but you can see the reach that that company would have, that company, Amazon, and you see the ability for them to purchase a company. Excuse me, that servicing almost a million Americans for 18 bucks a share, when it was just trading there at the beginning of the year and was all the way up at 59.82 last year, and that is where the future of healthcare is going, folks. There is no reason that you need to be in a physical doctor's office for a lot of what you do. Yes, sometimes you're gonna have to show up, whether it's getting blood work, right? Whether it's getting just a doctor needs to physically, actually physically examine you in some way. But many times that's not the case. And many times now that I have young kids in the house, you walk into a doctor's office and it's just germs everywhere, man. I dread being in there because it's the quickest way to get sick. Same thing with the hospital, man. Get out of the hospital the moment you can, folks, because everybody's very sick in there. And it's a very easy way to catch something, especially in a doctor's office for pediatrics. Now, the one we go to is pretty cool. They have one room for the kids who are sick, right? One room for the kids who are well.  The kids aren't running around, they're the sick ones, at least they have their own area. It's got its own chairs, whatever it be. But still, you get the point, right? Many times you can go in there for some type of a checkup or maybe it's just something where you have the sniffles and you can tell the doctor that, yeah, I took the kid's temperature, it's 100.5. He's not sleeping very well. There's just a million reasons of how that's gonna change the world as we do everything online. So, yeah.  The amount of prime numbers they got. And we'll finish it up on the whole Amazon case, man, because I was reading about this weekend and I'm pulling up the article right now. Lord of the Rings is coming to Amazon, I think, September 2nd, and it's gonna be like $715 million is what they spent already. They had to pay $250 million for the rights. It's gonna be an eight season. I think five seasons, eight seasons. Nonetheless, they're spending $700 million, almost a billion dollars on one series of a show, of one season of a show, okay? And that's gonna kick off September 2nd for Amazon. And that's what every prime member gets on their period. Just very difficult to imagine that company, man. Not blowing away many industries. And as I say it, they're positive today somehow, man. And they catch a little bit of a bid. Somebody's listening. Who's buying Amazon out there on the open from 129.50 to 131. It is remarkable when you think about it, folks, when you have that type of a reach on Amazon. And listen, I'm a Sam's member, right? I shop at Walmart. I love Target, but they are just leaps behind competing with Amazon when it comes to process and process is the future in terms of being able to logistically deliver expectations for people. You don't think they understand how that's something that healthcare will be ever important to. They understand process better than anybody. They have the cloud infrastructure to facilitate something like that better than anybody. And we'll see if it plays out. Let's jump around to some of these other bank stocks. We catch a bid for the first six and a half minutes of the trading day. Apple down about eight tenths percent. That's gonna weigh on the market, man. Microsoft down about three tenths percent. Google shares positive a bit up by about four tenths. See how Met is doing this morning. Up by about four tenths percent from Met shares. Let's see how ARC, the ultimate growth stock, they catch a little bit of a bid. Let's see how some of those are. We're gonna zoom catching a bit off the pretty disastrous lows resume up 1.5 percent today. I wouldn't be touching zoom just yet though, folks. Roku, similar deal. Really dicey territory for Roku. Now I've been saying it before, man. Roku, maybe Amazon buys Roku at some point. I don't think so. Okay, but maybe somebody buys Roku. Maybe Netflix buys Roku and maybe they don't. But there's a possibility that happens folks because Roku right now is under $10 billion. And I think they're in 66 million US households as the set top box, along with being in many TVs, as the gatekeeper for streaming and these companies.  Something to keep in mind as Roku hits levels that are, I mean, you came into COVID at double the price that you're at right now. You're telling me that the world has changed that dramatically. I mean, they've faltered in many ways. They're playing obviously some issues, but nonetheless, and the other one that I always think about it as well as DraftKings. Now they've caught a recent bid with some of their recent earnings, but still twice last year, you were above 60 bucks. This year, again, you're down about half a percent. You're sitting at a market cap right now, $7.3 billion for DraftKings. The other one in gambling, Penn. They own Barstool Sports, sitting at about 32. They also won some tracks and Penn's sitting at about $5 billion. Something to think about, man. Roku, especially, you know, they're in some doldrums here, but I imagine Reed Hastings has taken a hard look at this equity under $10 billion when you were trading at $490 twice last year and even the beginning of this year, you were at 240. Speaking of, we jump over to Netflix right now, and FLX, and they're up a bit with some of the growth stocks. NASDAQ 100, negative by 53, you get the Dow off three-quarters percent, actually leading the way right now. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back in three minutes. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by VistaGold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Hi folks, we got the gold contract right now, up $1. This is a longer-term chart, folks. This goes back to the 70s of gold at 100 bucks, gold charges higher. Tell you folks, if you're getting into the gold market, check out the front page of TFNN right now. We got a special right on the front page of TFNN. You can save 50% on the gold report off your first month. Because man, credit to my dad, when he started the gold report, folks, I think it was 227 bucks. It's somewhere around this, right here on this chart, which is just a mind-boggling bottom and the run that has ensued. Quite a pullback from the years of 2011 to the lows of 2016. We're chopping around near those highs right now at 1751. That high, 1826, September of 2011, that high that it ran up to before you got a pullback. I think he got his subscribers out around 16 or 1700 bucks, man, after starting that thing at 200. And boy, some of those equities. Okay, the miners, you think gold ran when it went from 200 to 1800? You imagine running a business and how profitable that business becomes when it goes from 200 to higher. Now, the reason why I have this up is because I had mentioned gold's behaving pretty well considering for the strength of the dollar over this time. Now, Steve Rhodes, our man talks about it all the time, talking about gold priced in other currencies, right? Just taking a look, okay? I'm gonna pull this up real quick. At the yen, for instance, just remarkable when you see the type of moves, right? I mean, if you're in Japan and you're holding the yen, okay, now I just put it up on this chart in terms of we are back to basically where this was in 2011, right? Gold charges higher to 1750. We're sitting right now at 1750. We were where we are in 2011. In the yen, you're more than double where you were, man. 2011, okay, from 2005, gold goes from 43,000 up to what, 135,000, 100,000. There's April of 2011. There's August of 2011. And we're sitting at 240,000 right now, man. And just look, since 2018, okay? Gold priced in yen's almost doubling during that time.  Now, it's much more important than just the yen, but the yen's an important one for a big way, as that happens, okay? Cause just September of 2018, you have gold in yen's going from 133, 133,000 to 240, okay? And September, 2018, yeah, we're still up 50% over that time. I mean, you can't deny the moves that we've had, okay? But checking out the yen over that time, right? Look at, and this is the reason why, okay? From 2011, you have such a divergence because over that time, man, you have had the yen go from 77 to 138, right? Basically cut in half the buying power cause that is dollar strength, that is yen weakness, okay? It used to cost you 77 yen for a dollar, that's probably a much bigger number, right? And now it's 138. So if you haven't checked out, this is another plug, why not?  You look at this move in the yen, man, from the beginning of 2020, the yen just went from 102 to 138. We were sitting at, and it's not parity cause it's not one for one, it's like a hundred for one, but we were almost at that parity line of a hundred, you could call it, and just like that, man, the yen versus the dollar loses almost 40% of that buying power that you had. Pretty dramatic moves. All right, jumping back to the market real quick. S&Ps holding up pretty well right now. We closed the gap.  Futures didn't stop even after the market closed. We hit about 4,042 for the low, and the market just got above that. We just actually closed that gap, man. You got a size 4,043, and I got a low print at the close of 4,042. You actually closed out the session at 4,042.75. Yeah, 4,042.75, where you closed out the 5pm session, okay, where you actually closed out at 4pm Eastern time, you were talking about 4,059, which is why the market's still low about 20 points or so there. Crew contract catches a little bit at 95.24 right now. Let's see where we are with the Euro US dollar. This morning as we got some big action and currencies, we're back above the parity line at 100. Yeah, we were as low as 99, man. This is part of the reason you're seeing so much action and gold in a big way. We've seen action in the dollar yen as well. Crew contract up $2, pushing the highs that we had last week, 95.19 for crude. There's that gold contract at 1,751 and we check in on notes and bonds, sitting at about 1,704 for the 10 year, 10 year at about 3.1% the two year at 3.5%. There's some numbers for you. All right, let's jump into some of the earnings we got this week. So we'll jump into Tuesday. We get some numbers, Best Buy, I believe out with their numbers on Tuesday. Let's jump over to their chart, BBY, not to be confused with Bed Bath and Beyond, BBY. It's actually later in the week, they're gonna have a presentation in some degree, putting this on a little bit of a longer-term chart. Quite a pullback from 141 cut in half to about $74.00. You're back well below where we were pre-COVID levels of about 90 bucks. You came in to 2020. We jump over to the Analyze tab and the Earnings tab. And yes, they were out with their numbers tomorrow when you're looking at about a $6.00 move for a $74.00 equity for Best Buy. What else do we got? We got Chewie out with their numbers as well. CHWI, the pet food provider. They're out with their numbers tomorrow. There's some volatility for you, man. It's a $37.00 stock. You got a $5.00 move priced in. This thing's been on quite a pullback from 120. Now you did get quite a bounce here. I remember looking at this thing, and you don't even need to draw that trend line to realize that, boy, we're bumping up against some dicey levels in terms of if that's a downtrend channel, man, you just touched that level. And where exactly does that fall? Maybe you could line it up with the recent trend we've had here. Maybe it's a little bit of linear regression matching the lows we had all the way back to March of 2021. Nonetheless, you see, man, we just touched that upper boundary line about $50.00 with $37.00. And they have almost a 15% move priced into their numbers after the bell tomorrow for Chewie. CrowdStrike, another one. They're out with their numbers. About a $16.50 move, CrowdStrike, coming into those numbers.  Let's see, let's take off some of these numbers for some clarity here. Well, this one's interesting. I'll leave this one on. You see the pullback we just had from April to the lows of May 9th? You bounce, where do you bounce to? You bounce right to the 618 right now. Now you're positive today on the session by about 2.10%, CrowdStrike, about a $16.50 move into their numbers. And that'll be Tuesday as well, tomorrow. Wednesday, jumping down some of those. We got Express, we got Cheecos, you get some retail out there. We got Bonson Noble. We got Five Below. They'll be out with their numbers. Let's check out Five Below. Some of those cheaper retailers. They haven't been in trouble lately, man. From 237 down to 120. We look at the full pullback this thing had from 47 bucks up to 237. You could say it built a little bit of a base at the 618, man. We come into their numbers. Now Wednesday, and you're talking about a $9 move for Five Below, $126 stock coming into their numbers. And fast forwarding further in the week. What do we get? Bed Bath and Beyond. They're gonna provide a business and strategic update to investors during a conference call on Wednesday at 8.15 a.m. Eastern time. Press release and related materials to be issued approximately 7.30 a.m. Eastern time. So Wednesday, the meme stocks, they might get some lighter fuel as if they need it. There's some action at about 11. Yeah, not with their numbers, right. But they just have an event planned for Bed Bath and Beyond Wednesday. 8.15 info to come at 7.30. Stay tuned, folks. We'll go over some of the other equities with their numbers Thursday, Friday this week. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they're expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigeresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We have 25 minutes of trading so far with markets open and the future is holding up pretty well. We get the S&Ps down about 20 points right now at 4,038, almost up near the session high so far this morning. Jumping around to some of the other companies to keep your eye on this week with numbers. Broadcom, AVGO, they, you talk about a pullback, man, they trade down $30 on Friday this morning. We're basically flat. We jump over. They're out with their numbers September 1st, which is Thursday, I believe, right? Yes, Thursday. They'll be out with their numbers after the bell. Broadcom, you talk about 5% move about priced into that equity, $23 just under a 5% move. We also get Lulu Lemon out Thursday after the bell as well. There's some more volatility, about a $22 move priced in for $310 stock for Lulu right now. Lulu down about 6 tenths percent. You trade down about $12 from where you were on Friday. You take a look at this thing from the entire COVID right of 128 to 485, chopping around right around that 50%. You did make it as low as the 618. You see that 50% line many times, kind of that 300 area. Nice round number being an area of support. And right now you're coming into their numbers Thursday after the bell as well. We jumped to some of the currencies. Crude checking in as we almost come to the end of the program, catching a little bit of a bid, man. I came on the air. Well, not that I was checking out crude early this morning. Of course, 93 handle. I did come on the air and crude was under $94. Right, where were we? Yeah, we were chopping around about $94, man. You given an hour crude up a buck 50 just while I've been doing the show and you're inching towards the highs of last week, 95, 76. We take a look at crude. Folks, I was talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad, last week about this on our chat every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. And you know, he sees some higher crude prices coming at you. And one of the things I say is, man, this pullback is so dramatic. Even if you get a healthy bounce and you think crude is probably going somewhat lower or consolidating, a 3A2 brings you to 100 bucks. A 618 brings you to 109. Somewhere in that area seems highly reasonable that crude makes a path to. All right, folks, talk about an interesting market. We got action in both directions. S&P's negative by 15. Stay tuned. We got our man, Basil Chapman. He is up next with the Tiger Technicians Hour. Steve Rhodes at 11 o'clock. Fast market at 12. Larry Pezzavento live at one. Dave White live at two. And we got Larry filling in. That's right, one more day at three o'clock. You're getting double duty Larry today as well. We got a treat. Stay tuned, folks. Live programming all day. Have a great Monday.


All over the world, people are seized and detained in secret, deprived of the protection of the law and their right to fair trial. They may be ill-treated, perhaps tortured or killed. Their families and communities suffer unending uncertainty and anguish. They may never know why their loved ones disappeared. Enforced disappearance is practiced by states in every region of the world, and non-state actors are increasingly adopting similar practices. Ten years ago, the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance came into force. It prohibits enforced disappearances in every circumstance. Whether the goal is fighting terrorism, combating the illegal narcotics trade or caution criticism or activism, no authority may ever arrest, detain and abduct individuals without acknowledging and justifying that deprivation of liberty. For the tenth anniversary of this landmark treaty, we have launched a campaign to double the number of states ratifying the convention by 2022 in five years time. I am asking all of you to join this campaign. Stand up for human rights wherever you are. Check if your country has ratified the convention. Ask your governments to take action. No woman, man or child should be erased from the face of this earth.


CHAPTER 53 THE STORY OF SCOTLAND LAND OF THE MOUNTAIN AND THE FLOOD SCOT Europe was busily engaged in warfare. George II of England had but just returned from the Continent, where he had been helping Maria Theresa against her many foes, when suddenly the news rang through England that another of the hapless stewards was in arms in Scotland. Let us take a glance at this Scotland, this land of the mountain and the flood, which together with England and Wales is known as Great Britain. Unlike the sister country, Ireland, no salt waves of the sea divide her from England. Only the Chavilla Hills separate the two countries, which have been united since the year 1603. One life, one flag, one fleet, one throne. It is the most mountainous part of Great Britain, and this fact has had a great deal to do with the story of Scotland and the character of her people. These are the Highlands and the Lowlands, the Highlanders and the Lowlanders. The Union of England and Scotland, under one king, took place in 1603. In that year Elizabeth of England lay dying, leaving no child to succeed her on the English throne. In vain she had been begged to name an heir. As death approached she spoke constantly of James, King of Scotland, now a man of 36. Again the courteous pressed her to name her heir. My seat, she murmured, hath been the seat of kings, and I will have no rascal to succeed me. Once more they pressed her for a name. And who should it be, she whispered with her last breath, but our cousin of Scotland. So James was crowned King of England, Scotland and Ireland, assuming the title of King of Britain. Mutual advantage arose to both countries, former discords were soon forgotten, while the poets burst into triumphant songs over the Union. The flag of their Union far over the wide earth is welcomed with gladness, and there may it cease to wave as the emblem of valor and worth, proclaiming in battle the promise of peace. The children shall equal the deeds of the sire, the future in glory, out glory the past, and dearly will cherish till time shall expire, one country, one cause, and one hope at the last. From the death of James I the Scottish people took up the calls of the stewards, and so it was that in the year 1745, when the exiled grandson of James landed in the Hebrides, the clan with one accord rallied to his standard at Glenfinnan, when the mighty heart of Scotland, all too big to slumber more, burst in wrath and exultation, like a huge volcano's roar. His force swelled as he marched in triumph to Edinburgh to proclaim his father, the old pretender, King. Two thousand English troops sent against him were cut to pieces in a single charge of furious clansmen at Prestonpans, in the course of ten minutes. Victory doubled the Scottish forces, and the young pretender, as he was now called, was at the head of six thousand Highlanders. Matters were growing serious when George II of England sent his second son, the Duke of Cumberland, against the Highland troops under the young pretender. The armies met at Culland and Moore, near Ivernus. The English army was large, well fed, well trained, a contrast to the Highland troops under the Prince, who had eaten but a biscuit each the day before the battle. The Prince was desperate. He planned a night march as his only hope of defeating such an army. Setting the heath on fire to convey the idea that the Highland troops were camping for the night, Prince Charlie set forth with his men in profound silence. The night was very dark and progress was slow. At two o'clock in the morning they were yet four miles from the English camp. A distant roll of guns told them that the English were not asleep. It was useless to risk a surprise. Instead, the Highlanders crowned the heights of Collidan. They were now tired, foot sore, weary, having passed the night in marching. They were also without food. They lay down to snatch a few hours' sleep when a sudden alarm announced the English army. Hurry and confusion reigned, but the clansmen soon flung themselves in a wild rush on the English. They were received with a terrible fire of musketry by the troops under the Duke of Cumberland. All that courage and despair could do was done. There was the howl of the Highland advance, the scream of the onset, the thunder of musketry, the den of trumpet and drum, the flash of firearms, the glitter of broadswords. And then came the end. The battle was over as rapidly as all other Highland conflicts. Soon, very soon, the Highland force was fleeing from the field, away from the field of Collidan, never to be banded more in the hopeless cause of the stewards. Collidan was over and Prince Charlie a fugitive. Attended by a faithful few, he embarked in an open boat for the Hebrides. A violent storm arose. Rain poured down in torrents. Vivid lightning showed the blackness of the raging waters while thunder crashed overhead. Meanwhile, a heavy price was set on his head. Search parties were everywhere, and he had many a narrow escape of falling into the hands of his enemies. When he reached Stornaway at last, he was drenched to the skin and had tasted no food for eighteen hours. A faithful friend took pity on him and gave him food and shelter. For many a long day the little band sailed about among the creeks and islands of the Outer Hebrides, now chased by a man of war, now driven on to the desolate rocks by the fury of the sea, eating oatmeal mixed with salt water as an alternative to starvation. For every creek and ferry along those wild shores was watched by English soldiers. There was thirty thousand pounds for the man who would give up Prince Charlie, and not a man was found to betray his prince. Many were the songs written and sung about this Scottish idol, this Prince Charlie of Scottish romance. It is a well-known story how the prince fell into the hands of Flora MacDonald and how she planned his escape to the island of sky. She dressed him as her tall Irish maid Betty Burke in a flowered print gown and quilted petticoat, white apron, cloak, and hood. As such he accompanied her to the seashore, though boats of armed men were watching them at the time. Under cover of darkness they sailed across the stormy waters to sky. Speed, bonny boat, like a bird on the wing, onward the sailors cry, carry the lad that's born to be king, over the sea to sky. But there was danger here too. The prince was tall. What long strides the maid takes and how awkwardly she manages her petticoats, said a bystander, and the prince had to change his dress. So he wandered about from place to place, and the faithful Highlanders kept their secret bravely, till finally the prince made his way to France. Thus ended the last attempt of the unlucky stewards to regain the crown of Scotland and England. George II was firmly established on the throne of Great Britain and Ireland, and his direct descendants still rule over the ever-increasing empire.


Wir hatten gerade schon das spannende Thema mit Power, oder? Hallo. Hello. This is a talk about power, about computation power. At home, you work at SETI at home for Search for Aliens.  The translators are Kaste und Tatzelbrum. We are translating the German to English. Hello. Hello. Thanks for the good introduction and good evening. You have noticed that he has said something wrong. This is not a talk in German, this is a talk in Austrian, but I'll put in an effort. The subject of the talk, Supermook NG, NG stands for Next Generation as in Star Trek. The subtitle has gotten lost, but that was important. Where are we in the race for the fastest computer in the work? And what does NG have to do with it before I want to start with the core motivation? It's about this, the Munich Tatort. The TV show was turned here. The people are not in the room here. But this was an interesting story, because everything was toppled upside down, because there was a movie turned and nothing worked. And in the background you see the Supermook. And that was a story. I don't want to tell you the contents of the story. But Artificial Intelligence, the interesting thing about this story was what happened to. As soon as this was transmitted, on the next day there were the first phone calls. The first calls were some newspaper.  And then were questions like, how dangerous is this? What are you doing? What else can you do with this apparatus? And those are things where I thought about, and that many people in the room are in the same situation, that hardly anybody understands what we are doing. And this is the same thing with the Supermook. You might be the experts of the future of digitalisation. You are closer to it, but it's about time that you are looking closer at what is such a Supercomputer, what is a Supermook? And one or the other who didn't see the Tartot might have seen a movie by Edward Snowden. And in this movie the Supermook is in there too, because they were not allowed to take a movie at the NSA. And they asked us to turn to do the movie at our place. And there are some scenes in there where Supermook is playing in the background. There are scenes also where our Suss admins, the people who administer the system, are running through the picture as cameos. That gives the movie more authenticity. And one of the pictures in the Snowden movie was this one, where I have to say that for copyright reasons I have done that myself, that's not in the movie. But you see the same thing in the movie, but the lights on top are off and it looks more futuristic. What you see is Supermook Phase 1 and Phase 2. And they are the dearest behind. Supermook 1 is what you see in the background. And the two rows in the front are the Supermook 2. And the room has 1200 square metres. And it's pretty filled. The empty space is for the movie, for the TV show TARDOT, the empty. The interesting thing is the power. The Phase 1, 600 square metres is 3.2 petaflops. And the two rows in front are 3.6 petaflops. And everybody is supposed to know what the petaflop is. He also wears the petaflop T-Shot. It's 10 to the 15th floating point operations per second. It's 1 with 15 zeros. And that was 1 petaflop is in computational power. That's Phase 1, 3.2 with 15 zeros. And it's actually 14 zeros, because it's a decimal point. Okay, that's what they can calculate. And if the media call, what does that mean? If it says 17.000 people at the surface, it's some billions of calculation power. This calculation power, what the devices are capable of. The interesting thing is that in 2012, half of the room in the background had 3.2 petaflops. And in 2015, the two rows in front, 3.6 petaflops. So within three years, we only need a quarter of the room and a third of the current and get the same computational power. And that's the increase in computational power. And that's the reason why we always get new devices. Well, because there is a point where it's cheaper to get the new device than to operate the old device. We see in this example that the computational power is based on the computational cores. It's 230.000 computational cores. The intention is that these computational cores calculate collectively in parallel and that they use everything available and they can use large calculations and there's memory requirements that match it and there's current requirements. In this case, the power consumption is a small city with 30.000 households. The free room in space is for the Tartot movie and then we put this in there and this is the Supermuck NG which is at the time Germany's fastest computer which is 26.7 petaflops and 11.000 calculation cores and they should all work together and be used for the application. Main memory 307 terabytes. We have all the digital pages in the Bavarian National Library but they would comfortably fit in there. Before we go into the details, we go to the background. Why do we need such a system at all? Why did we decide to get that? There's the Gauss Center for Supercomputing, that's a society that's been created for the National Supercomputing, the HLRS Institute, the Jülich Supercomputer Center and the Munich Center. For the scientific community you get the highest calculation of power. There have been agreements between the state and the federal state of Germany. So half and half between Bavaria and the national level. If you look at it closely, this is the proposal for the project for the time range of 2017 to 2020. In total it's some of 450 million euros. We take care to construct those highest-performance-Computings in order to support this kind of research that is done for very high computing demand. We also have to take care that we select the project that will have the ability to run on that system. So it's available to all of the German researchers and they can propose projects that will run on this. There is a board with scientific members that select the projects that will be allowed to run. So there are specific requirements for the systems. If you look at the LLZ, which is the organization that runs the system, it should have a fairly broad spectrum of applications that can run on this. The specific areas that we look at are the astro-geolife sciences and the environmental sciences as well as various areas of physics, fluid mechanics and chemistry. So we take a closer look at this and what I want to do is shed some light on certain aspects. In the past there were students who did it as a job, that they were plugging together all the hardware and then installed some software and then run the software on it. But here there is a bit more of a process around this and more requirements. 2016 we started a proposal in a platform called SimApp where, if you think about it, the system was already installed and we are now two years past this timeline. And if we now look back, that 2015 we installed the older system. The result is that we basically, the moment we have installed it, we already have to think about constructing and designing the new system. So we went into a dialogue with various partners to fix the legal requirements around this. We also have to put down the criteria and the guidelines in advance before constructing the system to show that what we are going to offer. There are also NDAs involved and it also needs to match what we have regarding the space requirements in terms of the cooling systems. So, on the 23rd of January, the first applicants were bringing proof that they are supported in their financial needs and their economic capabilities. So, in order to know if they also have to name a reference installation for us to prove for us that they can handle the requirements for energy efficiency and cooling. So, the question is who is actually capable of constructing such a system? And there is only a very small number of companies around the world who are actually capable of doing this kind of thing. In the first round we looked at five companies who are capable of that. We basically met with all of the applicants three times. To give us a proposal this is a very interesting process that we went through. It took a lot of human capital that was involved in selecting the final contender. There were at least 25 people involved at any given time. So in the second round after we went through all of the three rounds of the first five companies we narrowed it down to two. And both of them had the chance to basically give us the best offer. And we got this description of goods and services. I chose free that I wanted to show you. They have different colors. Red is mandatory. Yellow is what is important. It would be nice to have. Green is more of a those are target areas that we wanted to have, not that important. So basically this is like a whole list of questions that each vendor has to answer. It's basically we want a complete description for every as an answer for every question. For example here this is relating to cooling.  We're also looking at total cost of ownership. We said about 64 million. Sounds like a lot of money but it's total cost of ownership. So the hardware, the system, the software the maintenance have to all be included and it may not go over the limit that we set. So it's not possible that after the fact they come around and say okay we need a little more this really is a strict requirement. The vendor that is making a proposal really have to make a good suggestion that whatever is left after the buying really needs to be enough for this. Otherwise the companies themselves have to find it out of their own pocket. This is a little different than what you do when you buy a laptop obviously. We need the maximum power for the budget that we can get. So there's only going to be one vendor and there's no side offers and they're forced to work together we said Q3 18 to Q4 19 so they still have some time to get their act together and to maybe perform a partnership. So often it's best for them to be in their earliest. There's a whole competition going on there between the vendors and we're going to do measurements to prove the capabilities of the system and it needs to be tested in regards to functional capabilities and there's also questions around the proposal where the vendor can ask us if they don't understand the questions that we're asking them. So we basically need to always replicate that question from the vendor to all the other vendors so they're in the loop of effort for us. So we really hope that it's easiest and most understandable so there's less effort for us. So in the end hopefully everybody's happy and we signed a contract and you can see it in my hand I'm holding it in my hand in the picture that's the contract that I had to sign and hopefully every detail is in there. This was the 14th of December 2017 so in total some it took it lasted a year for us to it took us a year to get this done so here you can see the green and finnyband cables connecting it so those are the numbers that we got and we're pretty happy about them. Those are the technical specs that we got for the final system so now we're we're obviously interested in how we compare to all the other fastest systems in the world now so let's look at them. There's a list that's called the top 500 supercomputers in the world and those are the first 10 spots in the list so there's obviously 490 more down the list this is updated twice a year once in June and once in November interestingly enough there were 13.000 as a conference of 13.000 participants interestingly enough it's smaller than this 35C3 now so this is the first system in the list this is the fastest supercomputer in the world it's called Summit and it has an IBM Power 9 architecture and NVIDIA Volter GPUs in total it has 2.4 million cores and it has a theoretical maximum peak this is about 200.000 Teraflops this is only if the computer did nothing but calculate all the time this is of course unrealistic so this is really theoretical if all of the cores really weren't doing nothing but computing all the time so the second value is the lower value it's the Rmax it's an empirically evaluated measurement it's the maximum performance gathered in the LIN pack so all Quage National Laboratory is one of the American super computing centers they have codes and we know all the codes so the DOE interesting is also the power consumption it takes about 10 megawatts in power in Tennessee the electricity is about a sixth of what it would cost here so for them it's not that important for us this is a lot just because of the running course now we look at the first five computers there is a competition that's a race and in the current list on place one place one is US third and fourth is China and then the Swiss computer those are prestige projects and the presidents like the current American are inclined to join in this competition so the department of energy has the supercomputers and they have no problems to get money if they do environmental science it wouldn't be as easy to get money naturally they already have a nice competition the computation the computer on the third rank has a sun way processor which is an interesting processor now you see the connection to the net if you listen to the net politicians talk there is a Chinese variation of that the Chinese would have liked to build the Taihu light with inter processors but the American president said no we have an export sub and then China just built their own processor and back then nobody believed that would be possible but they pulled it off in four years and with computational power that matches and you see how important competition is and if you look at the importance at the fifth place that is a conspiracy theory that that colleagues in the Switzerland had added two more rex with additional graphics boards to get to 21.23 petaflops because before they had 19.3 and if we look on the next list that they wanted to show that the supermuck is there which has 19.5 that is this malicious assumption but they wanted to be ahead of the supermuck this picture here shows from the super computing the award ceremony there are there is a framework here like the occasion you see the green annotations are the changes in the and it says that in the top ten our system is the third Chinese one because it's been provided by Lenovo company but in truth we have a contract with Intel and in that contract it says it's Lenovo it's listed and not Intel and that's the contractual details I can live with this being a Chinese computer now if we look closer at our system that's on rank 8th rank we see that there is Lenovo 305.000 860.000 cores and for the linpack we haven't used all the cores we only used 305.000 cores in der rettical peak performance of 26.8 petaflop and 19.5 petaflops we reached in real life and we don't have current measurements yet we haven't done that yet there are some improvements to be made this is not the last thing that we did now we need to do some additional changes we talked a lot about linpack what is linpack linpack is a solver for a linear system of equations from deckjongara we see a linear system of equations on top there is a benchmark with 64 bit floating point operations in the flay paper that is described in detail how does that fit to such a computer if we scale this if we have many processes we need to look at the andals law that the speed is increased but the sequential part and gustavsans law that we need to parallelize the problem to the amount of we need to scale the amount of data with the size of the computer we are in the situation that it doesn't make sense to put in a computer with more processes we have more data too we can download this list as an excel table and we see the size of the problem and the nmax is the number of variables that need to be solved and if we look further and this is the do-it-yourself round you can look at this on your own smartphone there are the links in the description and you can install that this is on an iphone 6 of my girlfriend in this case she has 7 gigaflops computational power with the same algorithm and we have the possibility to compare what the supermook is doing with what we have so we can compare the computational power the interesting thing is that the comparability we can also look in the past we can also compare this to the fastest computer in 1988 we have 2.6 gigaflops an iphone 7 is 3 times faster than the fastest computer in 1988 one or the other would be older than born in 1988 you see how fascinating this development is we also see the increase in computational power the curves that shows how the computers become faster how many floating point operations per second we see an exponential growth this is a log scale in the 25 years beginning of the risks we had an increase of a factor of 2 million from than before that ties into the previous talk we are always getting faster there is the Moore's law I am going to skip this we also have this exponential growth in the parallel computers there is also a top 500 list it is interesting to see why they get faster is that the number of cores is growing if we look at the list of 1993 there is between 10 and 100 processors if we look at the list in 2018 all the computers have about 100,000 cores and the biggest ones more accordingly we can look at the accelerators and there is a list here and many of the many of the supercomputers work with GPUs many of them use accelerators and they are distributed accordingly the most favorite one is the Tesla P100 from Nvidia the interesting thing there is that the supermook does not have accelerators those are just pure Xeon processors it is Intel Xeon Platinum 8174 processors they have some properties that you can go up with the maximum clock frequency because we have water cooling we have cooling effects there are other properties those are which are top of the line there is nothing else but the process is the laptop computer it has the advantage that you can just upscale the codes from your laptops you could theoretically run windows on the supermook but that doesn't match the performance anymore the interesting thing is if we look at the water cooling here we see one of the boards we see that the boards are double boards there are two boards with two processors and we see that these red and blue pipes are the water pipes and if we look at it from the back sides we see the water connectors in and out and if we look at the whole rack we see that it is how it is piped how it is routed we don't put in normal water usually we cool with 8-12 centigrade water but the supermook is cooled with water at the temperature between 40 and 50 centigrade why do we want to cool at 40 or 50 centigrade water still has very nice cooling properties and the processor is still hot so much cooler than the 50 centigrade as long as the temperature difference is great enough there is a cooling effect the question is if the water has 60 or 70 degrees on the other side how much energy do we need to cool it down back from 60 to 40 degrees if we think about how it is locked like at side we need zero energy to take 60-degree water outside we need no cooling effort because we just cool it down by ambient temperature and this is one of the cooling managers and this is we need 3000 litres per hour per rack but it is also clear that what we have there the cooling manager is twice as high as the racks just in order to all the infrastructure in there and the double ceiling has a height of 1 meter 80 so that can all be put together so we do a few more tricks too we don't need we don't need fans per note we save a lot of electricity by that we can scale down the jobs we do job frequency scaling we adjust the clock frequency so that it is optimal for the code that we run there are some heuristics that tell us that and we get 15% gain by cooling ambient water we see the Leibniz center with 5 buildings there is this cube 10.000 m2 5 floors on the ceiling the boxes which are cooling 2 MW and what is important here this is the cross section of the building from the basement where the transformers are up to the super performance computer that this all has to play together whatever we do needs to be a holistic approach we developed something where we optimized not just for the current consumption not just the system software but also the application that determines what current is required and the building is designed to respond to the power requirement and this is how the demand is what happens if the demand is needed for the current consumption for one run of linpack which is started around 20 o'clock which is running into 9 am and we start with 800 with only 800 kW when the operating system is just running when the job is started it goes from 800 kW to 3 MW and what's in addition is also the cooling so we need 5 MW and that's what the infrastructure has to deliver that has to sustain and once the job is started that runs up and goes down again and that sends linpack is the peak load and we can see that this curve for the current consumption we see it zoomed out we have a weird an odd amount of current and there is a lot of optimization potential what we can do on the other hand is linpack also a reliability test for the infrastructure we see a output box with the fuses you also see the two power connections to the left and the right left the closed one, right the open ones and what happened is that one of these linpack runs the box looked like this you see that the top of the lid has actually molten down by the heat that was produced in that box why does something like that happen it also happens at home sometimes if you think with stuff with the wrong stuff here it happens because here it's a problem is because the human that put that in didn't tighten the screws so you had arching voltage arching and that heated up the box and that has called failure the linpack is the benchmark to find out what problems have this is kind of a secret that we use linpack for failure checks these are the transformers this is the transformer number 11 at least 11 12 transformers and this was at the open house that was interesting because I went there out at half past 8 I thought that everybody was out, most of the people were over there and there was a massive loss of power that was caused by the transformer number 11 that's if you see the sign it has 1600 KVP and if we look at the log files then we loaded the transformer with 1500 KVP and why did it fail at 1400 and we learned something we learned that by the dust that was all there even though we kept the maintenance intervals the dirt made the transformer so hot that it switched off and then the other transformers tried to compensate and they couldn't compensate and then the whole house threw off the power and that was at 8 hours open house and that has occupied the queue until 2 am and there is also a diesel that is for the uninterruptible power supply that's also interesting if we look at the whole system if we look at this linpack who cares about linpack who cares if this is position 8 it's nice to say that we are in the rank and linpack tells us where the technology state of the art is and we understand better how the system performs under peak performance if we want to we can also use a different benchmark we rank 1 at BFS benchmark we are 5th rank but that's not it what we really want is to provide a system that the scientists can work with this is nice to have this result in the linpack but what we really want is that the scientists are unable to do things that they couldn't do before so this is one of the examples this is about phylogenetic trees this is from alexis stomatakat stomatakat sorry, from Heidelberg it's about insects and daigino his interest is how are these insects related can we can we can we find the relation between the different types of insects and then we are going to try and figure out the relationship between them so he does sequencing and then alignment and then he's trying to do trees they're called phylogenetic trees so because this is a lot of different data points in the genome you need a super computer for this so this is the number of possible trees for 150 species it has 301 different digits just if you want to look at 150 different species the scientist was waiting on the supermarket to arrive because he knew he had the code there was no computer that could run this so he had to wait for supermock in order to solve this type of scientific problem that he had and it's not so much about the performance in itself but the data that he's crunching is so huge and he needed to bring all of this together in order to solve this scientific problem so what's in it for us well not really we just have to supply him with the capability and support him but he was able to publish a paper in science and this is the actual thing that we're after so we did our job because we helped him get into it and he did it on our computer now he said if it works for the bugs maybe it works for the birds so he got another one out of it this is not so much about money or power this is about getting capabilities that we didn't have before so we just issued a new post stamp about simulation about species and about phylogenetics of species and about astrophysics we provide them with things where they can do new methods so this is another nice example we got a lot of good prizes for this so for example the highest performance computing prize we were in the finals there were two different groups that worked together the geophysics group from the LMU and the institute for informatics from the TU what they did was they simulated a volcano they they looked at the shock waves from an earthquake within the volcano and the kind of order of magnitude we are talking about here those are of 1.4 petaflops from 150.000 cores this is about 44.5% of our peak performance so in their normal run they basically almost got 45% of our peak performance which is so this is the point where we are asking why are we doing this in Germany at all this is we could basically go anywhere and work with them for example in Oak Ridge we could go there and just have them calculate our things but what we can't have is get the whole machine because they obviously have their own jobs so the differentiator for us is that we can actually provide the whole machine to someone that's why we are doing it here locally so if he really really has something important to himself he can't do that anywhere else in this order of magnitude this is why we get more progress this way if I had another hour I could just show you more examples but I don't the nice thing about it the examples are all really different those are also more applications where you can see the whole spectrum of things that we can do here so computational fluid dynamics for solid state physics, geophysics material science and so on it's really interesting if you look at the distribution of the computational time according to different disciplines you can really see the fluid mechanics needs the first physics needs the next third and then the material sciences are next informatics is really small if you compare it those are things like AI or other things that are starting to grow in those kind of informatics in the computer science but it's really interesting for me to see all the different applications that these other disciplines are utilizing us for so if you analyze what you get out of this you see how many different different sisters are being employed and what you can see here we've been computing for 7.6 billion hours there were 5.6 million jobs that were being processed and 2.000 researchers as a client and the breadth of the applications that we see is unique worldwide if you really look at it what you see here this is our report on the whole system that you you can take the barcode if you want to look at it it shows all the different applications that you get out of this system it's really interesting you can download it if you want if you're interested in that kind of thing there's also a science symposium that we recently did where we show the applications of the future there's really interesting new projects coming up you can look it up on the website so if you go back to the list the top 500 supercomputers the race for the fastest system we're actually getting something that's very usable in regards to development of new technology and computing power but in the end this is something like formula one the fastest computer is about as relevant as who won the this is not something that all of the science is gonna profit from so we have to put this into relation into the kind of effect it might be nice to go for a run with formula one car but I really I have a friend who is living in Northchimien city and he sent me this picture yesterday this is the Konghoh street if I visit him we always do our trips with Moped in your tours there's no chance you just have to walk around and you can do things like this basically this is a normal way to go to your office over there this is cheaper and faster than if they were taking a car together it's just a relation you just have to put it into relation of what you really wanna do and this gets me to my last remarks what I wanted to talk about but I didn't have the time for I knew this in advance obviously what's the next step we're all we're all in front of the barrier with the 10 to the 15, what's the next step so the next thing is the extra scale the extra flop barrier then after that there's the zeta flop who will reach it first China, USA or maybe Japan they've already shown once before with the Earth Simulator that they can also do this kind of thing so next one what's the European highest performance computing system is the EU commission able to get into the top 3 and do we really need it then there's also the European processor initiative so for example do we care about all the security issues that we have with the current generation of processors why would Europe then build its own processor and would it be related to what we do and the most important thing that we care about is what are we gonna do with the power that is dissipated from the system for one we're heating our own building obviously so that uses about 0.5% of the dissipated energy from the system that we use so we have about 99.5% that we still have no use for and there's the idea to use an adsorption cooling machine so the question is how do we make beer from this with the hot water from the supermold so this is a very bavarian answer to the question of what to do with the heat so this is a very interesting project first we already thought about the labels so we're quite far in that question so this is the end for me the slides are already uploaded if you're interested just look at them if you have questions just ask thanks a lot for this interest for this fascinating talk Tito Kanzelmüller if you have questions please use the microphones 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and the internet damn I thought I could ask my question first thanks for the talk why did you decide completely against extra GPU system that's a good question we didn't decide against it we specified what needs to be calculated in the system there's a number of codes that already run and that's what the vendors got and they saw what you can run on it of the 5 vendors there were 4 that used accelerators but the best performance we got without accelerators and that's the best that came out of the competition and I'm just as surprised as you are why this is like that thanks for the interesting talk my question is do really only people from science and education run stuff on it or is there also military well it's science it's research and teaching so it needs to be from research or teaching I need to return the question is there military in military research is there anything that's scientifically relevant I have two questions so just one why did the guy with the bugs completed and why didn't he just use a different one the supermook was the first computer that you could compute with all the properties you also need an interplay of computational power memory and connectivity and he knew that that was coming and it would have that capacity you can possibly compute that on larger systems but the efficiency is a question it was the best system for him to do it with thank you the internet has a question how much do the users of the systems have to know about the architecture and adjust their programs in order to maximize the performance they are going to get from the system and are there differences in the performance they get yeah to the second question the best users are the physicists it wasn't serious but there are no metrics it depends there are enough programmers with more talent and with more brain capacity you can do better there is no metric who is doing better or not to the first question you need to know a lot it's not only evaluated how that meets with the scientific requirements how scientific is it it also has to fit the hardware architecture so if somebody submits the code they need to prove that it also scales because otherwise it's a waste of money so all the factors have to match so that the system works accordingly and yes it's a lot of effort we tried to cover it with a relatively large crew that gets together with the team and puts together the code with them thanks for the talk again you were saying that the system is cooled with water what about the transformers they also dissipate power that's right, the supermook we still have fans you see that on one of the pictures of the supermook where the inrow cool fans that the network components, the hard disks are still cooled with fans here in the island in the middle there are the fans and this is still a disadvantage we told the vendors that for the next system we also need to do it we also have a small cluster which is coolmook 3 which dissipates 97% of the power by water and the power supplies are in cage with holes for the water to go through so we already cool all the components by water it's a very good question, thank you you were pretty open about what's being calculated on the computer but you don't have an idea about what's being calculated on the other 10 in the top 10 list so when we look at the first 4 systems it's department of energy or it's working with the Chinese military it's with military academies we know we don't know we have an idea what they do but we don't really know with the Swiss system according what you just said it's climate computations in the system in the Swiss system because you have a special code in Lugano so it's very different for the different systems for the different target architectures the nice thing about our system is the breadth that we can run a whole spectrum of application no other system has that back to number 2 so in relation to the question before about what's being calculated in the other 10 systems in the beginning of the talk you were saying about the bidding system for the vendors what are the proposals being done for and what information is in there what are you going to get from that so let's take an example we have in the moment we signed the contract we already prepared the next system we already think conceptually about the 2024 system in order to do that we need to estimate what is available in 2024 so we have a non-disclosure with the Intel and IBM to have an insight into the road maps beyond what is publicly known it gives we need to find out what processes are coming for the next design it's an interesting problem but there are people who can't talk to us because it's necessary that we are very involved to what we need to have as a concept and we need to know the road map we need to look into the future so those are information about the companies and not handwritten codes it's very open, it's a nice community and if you go very deep in the code then if we optimize that we get involved no question on the internet how large is the proportion how much of what you're doing is political, how much is scientific that's a very good question so officially only 25% of my time in the computational center and the rest of the time I'm a teacher for distributed systems university teacher so 25% of my working time is four days a week so you get an impression and I wouldn't estimate it they won't complain I have a dream job I have an understanding family that allows me to be here I'm here because out of scientific interest because of the privacy and ethics that is also has related with the job and of course I have to do be a little science manager that's also in the whole paragraphs it's not nothing more more sleep inducing than paragraphs I don't know if other people are like that hi I'm interested in the operating costs that are part of the budget how long is the computer system gonna run for and what's gonna happen to it so that's very simple it usually doesn't pay off operating a computer longer than six years supermook in 2012 we installed it in 2012 and the day after tomorrow it's getting switched off at that time the supermook and G takes over the load so that's the next processor generation with the code porting there is a difficulty we have a system here and it's too expensive to operate it longer in all those contracts we have return options so the companies can take it back and if we compare that to the system before the supermook was trashed in place the valuable materials were recycled that's cheaper than just to continue operating it someone said they have a power procedure at home there might be an ideal opportunity for you hi how often does someone have to walk up to a rack and do some maintenance on it basically the double cube is a dark center there is no offices there is nobody in there at the supermook in G it's like that a lot of things has to be done in the installation phase in the normal operation it goes down effort goes down there are a number of components the mean time between failure was at the supermook was less than one hour we had one critical failure within one hour we can do most of the thing from the desk so every once a day somebody needs to walk over and do some maintenance in place how lot is it in there just so interesting good question this is actually the quietest system because there are no fans we are at a point where in the aisles we have interviews and the normal camera cancels the background noise you don't get that in any other center next starter comes thanks for the talk you showed that there was a very very long running competition was using 50% of the first phase is it actually worth it to up the performance by 10% if you really don't use it that much so really used effectively or totally we all use it correctly even if it only reaches 10% of the maximum power we all do things that you can't couldn't have done before in science now the systems are so big the software, the data that you are using you are making them so large that they can just be calculated on the system and on the volcano certain effects and the Heinrich Egel talk in the science symposium because he can't calculate that those resolutions that means that the theoretical maximal peak power is a fictive fictitional number that is useless in principle but the 44% utilization is relatively high compared to what else runs on it it's not about it's not about filling the system consciously to maximum capacity somebody only needs 300 cores from the 311 we don't fill it up so the next guy that the next guy gets a system that can fill it up so we take into into account the holes and we don't use it up like Amazon because they are revenue based here it's science possible and we close the talk with this question a lot of applause that's also our finishing line this was