Good afternoon, good evening po sa inyong lahat na saanman po kayo ng parte ng mundo. Welcome to our 89th episode of the Stop COVID-19 webinar series brought to you by the University of the Philippines. Thank you for being a part of our credible online community and to all those who have just discovered us for today. Welcome po at saan na po marami po kayong matutunan sa ating very unique and exciting topic for today. Ngayong araw pung ito, we are commemorating the 36th anniversary of the EDSA Revolution which toppled a dictatorship and marked our return to democracy and free elections. Interestingly enough, recently din po, nakarunpo tayo ng mga, let's say ng mga events, maari pung ituring na malayo po sa ating, pero it's something that will actually affect us very very soon. In the Ukraine, 18 years ago nakarun din po sila ng people power, ang tao po doon ay the Orange Revolution of 2004 kung saan millions of ordinary citizens took to the streets to protest against authoritarian rule and corruption. Gaya po na sabi ko, recent developments have made us concerned, lala po sa mga nangyari po sa Ukraine, nakarun po ng military build up, nakarun din po ng pagbo bomba, et cetera, na talagang anticipating po na ito po ay mag steadily increase in the next few days. So ang tanong po natin, should the Philippines and its health workers be concerned about international conflict over and above our concerns? Lala po na meron parin po tayong nilalabana na COVID-19. For today's webinar, we will be tackling the question, gera sa panahon ng pandemya, apektado ba tayo? If you are looking for the latest information from the most distinguished experts, keep it right here. I'm Dr. Raymond Francis Sarmiento, Director of National Telehealth Center, National Institutes of Health University of the Philippines, Manila. Always a pleasure to be with all of you for our regular Friday lunch date. And always looking forward po, because I get to share hosting duties with our adjunct faculty, also the Special Envoy of the President for Global Health Initiatives, Dr. Susie Pineda Mercado. Dr. Susie. Hi. Good afternoon Raymond, maghantang hapon po sa inyong nahat. We'd like to welcome all of you back to the webinar. Great to see all the familiar names, although sometimes, I think nang last anniversary natin nakita natin ang mga faces. I'd like to welcome you to the webinar. As Raymond said, we have a very, very interesting topic. We had prepared this actually because we really anticipated that something might happen in Europe, but we didn't realize that it would happen so soon. Magkakaron po nandigma ang doon ngayon. Malayo po yan na, pero wala nang malayo ngayon, nakita naman natin. Nagkaron ng COVID sa China, umikot sa poong mundo. Ngayon ngayon nandyan pa rin. So nakatutok pa rin ang discussion natin dun sa COVID. We will still talk about COVID. But I think we wanted to zoom out a little bit and talk about what's happening in the rest of the world. What is happening now is really quite, what should I say, disruptive. Maraming mga effecto. So makikingan natin ang mga expecto natin. Ngayon, ayaman din lang pinag-usapan natin e gera. I'd like also to mention that there is an event that happened recently in our community about one of our doctors. Doctors in whether in war or peace are protected by medical neutrality, doctors and nurses. Anong mga mga gagamot o mga rescue workers hindi dapat sinasama sa pamumuliti ka ng gera. Ano yan, duty natin yan na tulungan ang sinumang mga nga ilangan regardless of your race, your religious beliefs or your political affiliations. And these are agreed upon in the Geneva Conventions. So medyo nabahala tayo na meron tayong isang kasamahan na in-resto. So we're going to show you the statement of the University of Manila community. So ito po ay galing sa UP Manila, UP College of Medicine, Philippine General Hospital and the UP Medical Alumni Society. So the statement on the arrest and detention of Dr. Maria Nativedad Castro. Dr. Maria Nativedad Mariam Silva Castro, an alumna of the University of the Philippines Manila, College of Medicine Class 1995 was arrested on February 18, 2022 in San Juan City Metro Manila. Dr. Natty has dedicated her medical career to providing health services to the poor, people in the rural areas of Agusan and other parts of Mindanao, as their community physician since 1996 after her graduation. She has become a staunch human rights defender especially of the Lumads and indigenous communities whom she has been attending to all these years. Dr. Natty seen what UP has envisioned its graduates to be, community oriented, using the primary health care approach intended for the underserved. The joint WHO and UNICEF Alma Ata Declaration on Primary Health Care endorsed in 1978 by 134 countries, including the Philippines, clearly states that health is a basic human right and the attainment of the highest level of health is a worldwide social goal. Dr. Natty has brought this advocacy to the halls of various agencies including the United Nations in Geneva and the European Union Council in Brussels, where she presented the poor plight of the Lumads and how their rights as historical and cultural stewards of their land and heritage are being trampled upon in the name of so-called development. We are all concerned in the UP Manila community including the UP College of Medicine and the Philippine General Hospital. That another doctor practicing in the underserved area where we have asked our graduates to serve is again being malined and red tagged. We still remember with sadness and anger, the death of our graduates, Dr. Bobby de La Paz, Dr. Janie S. Kandor, Dr. Lu Tango. We pray this does not happen to Dr. Natty. May justice be served and her rights under the rule of law be respected and appealed. We urge the UP community and the Filipino people to support us in this call for ensuring safety and welfare of Dr. Natty Castro. We embrace the Castro family and pray for strength as they endure this difficult time of uncertainty and hardship. So before we proceed with our program, I would like to ask us all to just have a moment of silence and for you to, I think, reflect on our personal intentions for this doctor who has been arrested. And we'll resume our program in a moment. So can we have a moment of silence please? Thank you very much everyone. So Raymond, we go back to our program. Thank you, Dr. Susie. For today's episode po, it's medyo mabigat ang ating katalakayin. It's something that was mentioned by Dr. Susie. The key objective probably is disruptive. Disruptive of the supply chains po natin, whether it's in energy, sa pagkain, medisina, may costs po, increase in prices. Meron din po tayong Overseas Filipino workers po, maaaring mga kamaganak po natin sila, who may wish to be repatriated, nag-ahanda na po na lumipat po o nakalipat na po ng ibang mga lugar. Meron din po mga refugees. Marami po, like an exodus of those refugees from Ukraine to other parts of the continent could make the pandemic a little bit more difficult to control. So yun po yung mga kailangpong controlin. Patongkol po sa, let's say, how do we manage the fear and the panic? And how do we make prudent actions po and take prudent measures for us to be informed and aware of these international events? Ano po ba yung mga preparations na kailangpong natin gawin, lalo na po sa health sector? How do we keep abreast of these events na hindi po tayong nagkinakabahan o nagkaroon po na, let's say, ng panic mode kong baga? Marami po kasing mga developments in the last few days and increasingly para minang para may ang ating mga developments lalo po sa patongkol sa garapong ito. So we have prepared, the TV UP has prepared po what we call person on the street interviews pero hindi po siya person on the street for this webinar. It is an introduction video. We're in with, interviewed po, key personality po with regards to answering this question. Paano na apektahan ang Pilipinas historically po ng panahon ng flu pandemic 1918? Ano ang mga sakit na lumaganap ng World War II at ano po po yung mga pwede po niyang pagusapan patongkol sa ating topic na ito? Please watch this. Paraming mga pandemiyan na nagganap sa kasaysayan, isa sa pinakamalala dito yung influenza pandemic ng 1918 na nagganap sa pagtatapos ng unang digma ang pandeik big. Nakarating ang pandemia dahil na rin sa pakikipagugnayan natin sa ibang mga bayan, nagkataon na patapos na ang unang digma ang pandeik big. Paraming mga sundalo ang mga naguwiyan, kasama na yung ilang mga sundalo ang Amerikanon na nadestino dito o kaya yung mga nakasangkot sa digmaan sa ibang bayan na nakikipagkalakal dito sa ating. Dahil pandeik bigan ito, kahit na nagmula ang pandemia sa Amerika at pumalat sa Europa, naging bahagi ang buong digma. Sabi nga nila dahil sa guerra naging mabilis ang paglawak ng sakit, yung bilis ng paglawak ng pagkalat ng mga sakit, makikita natin mas mabilis kapag mayroong mga digmaan o panan ako. Ibaling bahawa yung 1918 influenza pandemic, sa loob ng 24 linggo mas marami yung namatay sa influenza pandemic kaisa kung ihambing sa 24 na taon ng AIDS pandemic, sa ibang bayan ganun din ang nagganap, yung pagkalat ng bubonic plague sabi nila ay parang huling alon ng digma ang nagganap at pagpapalawak ng mga tagagit ng Asia patungong Europa na may dalang kuto yung mga kabayong tumalon mula sa kabayo patungong daga at mula sa daga napunta sa mga tao kaya bubonic plague ang tawag. Nung sakupin ng mga Europeo ang Hilaga at Timog America, halos siyang napungbahagdan ng mga mamamayan sa makalumang Amerika ang namatay. Hindi lang ang dahil sa pakikidigma, malaking bagay yung digmaan, pero daladalan ng mga Europeo yung tinatawag nilang old world diseases, bubonic plague, syphilis, cholera at marami pang iba. Napakalaki ng kaugnayan ng digmaan, pananakop at pangkalat ng mga sakit. Lalo na dahil ang mga tao ay nagiging mas mabilis ang paglikas yung mga umiiyuas ng digmaan o kaya paglipat ng lokasyon dun sa mga mananakop naman. Mayroong physical immunity na pinangahawakan yung ilang mananakop, pero hindi nila alam karier pala sila o tagabagdala ng ilang mga sakit na mahawa yung mga bayang sinakop nila. Kahit dun sa mga digmaan sa pagitan ng mga maliliit na bayang, na kahit hindi pandeigdigan yung saklao, nagiging pandeigdigan yung effecto dahil sa pangkalat ng mga sakit. Sa marayang pagkakatoon, yung halimbawang mga nahuling sundalo o yung nagaping mga mamamayan, hindi lang sakit dahil mas magiging buonirablay yung mga nasakop na bayang o nasakop na lipunan at mamamayan. Kapag humihin na na yung kanilang resistance sa kulang sapagkain, kulang sa nutrition. At yung ganitong kalagayan, kalimitan, kapag may digmaan, mas nagiging malala yung kakulangan sa pagkain, kung gaya yung kakayahan ng pangangatawan ng tao na kumaharap sa mga sakit. Kahit endemico yung sakit na matatagpuan sa kanilang sariling bayan na nang matagal, nagiging mas marami yung namamatay. Yung malaya hindi siya pandemic, endemic yan sa mga lugar gaya ng Pilipinas. Pero naging malala kasi pinagsiksikan nyo yung mga nahuling sundalo na nagmamarsya ng malayo na paggod, pulang sa inumin, sa pagkain, mababa ang resistance siya pulang sa nutrition. Maraming mga mamamayan yung namatay, sanhin ng paglalan ng kalagayan dahil sa pagkakasakit at digmaan na laging parang magkakambal. Gusto natin malaman ng anong effecto sa lahat ng ginagawang natin sa COVID. So we have great speakers for you. I know we started a little serious but we feel kasi for Dr. Natia. So anyway, we started a little serious but we'll gain our energy back now. And I just wanted to say that for those of you interested in reading more about what happened to the Philippines in 1917, yung pung speaker natin dito sa tiyong nang interview na yan si Dr. Francis Gallogo. Ay ano po ito yun no? Meron siyang publication sa atineyo tong kuldon. In fact, it's the only one that I've seen that's really doing a documentation of how we cope with the pandemic in 1917. So kung gusto nyo pang matuto tong kuldon, masahin nyo po yun na napinyo si Dr. Francis Gallogo. Okay, so let's do the next. Okay, so before we proceed, I think I just wanted to say na itong webinar na ito ay hindi naman manakot. Parang nakakatakot ngayon na hikita natin sa TV. Pero ito ay para tayo bilang mga frontline health workers ay merong sapat na kaalaman tongkul sa nangyari. And today sabi nga natin lahat ng talino kailangan natin para mapuksay yung COVID. Bibigay ka lang mag-mentimeter ganang ba? Yes, and announcements. Some of our announcements naman po is just general information especially for those na talagang sumusubay-bay. But we wanted to mention also that our webinar again can accommodate up to a maximum of 3000 participants so please join us in Zoom so you can fully experience po ang interactive program po natin. Nevertheless, we are also available in YouTube and in Facebook po so that you'll be able to, well if you are the one na talagang babad po sa social media, you'd still be able to participate by putting in sa comment section ng ating live streaming po whether in YouTube or Facebook may kita po ang ating mga katanungan. Merong po ang nag-monitor po nyan and if there are any interesting questions, we will be likely to pick them up and then post them to our panel of experts. Merong din po tayong question and answer box dito po sa Zoom so we hope that you could start entering especially if you have any questions na po even before the webinar has started, please feel free to put them in the Q&A box po. For those who are asking, certificates of attendance will be given to those who have watched at least 50% of the webinar duration. We have already sent out all at least for the previous 88 webinars po na merong po tayong partial palang po yung sa webinar 88 but for the 87 webinars we have already completed it if you feel that you should have received our certificate for that. Please let us know at hindi po kayo naka-received po by emailing stopcoviddeaths at up.edu.ph. Merong din po tayong tiyatawag na menti meter po, parang kapatid po siya nung zoom poll po natin so for today's webinar if you open your browser and go to www.menti.com and enter the code 37491856 that's 37491856 you'll be able to participate in our fun quiz before we start the webinar. Today's webinar will still follow the standard panel discussion format and after our main speaker has presented we have a panel of reactors who will weigh in a Q&A session wherein we will entertain questions from our zoom, facebook and youtube audience. So to get the ball started, Dr. Susie will now introduce our opening remarks speaker. Okay thank you very much for all of that Raymond. Okay so for our opening speaker hindi po to na i-mail to satin and kailalag pa nyo po siya siya po ihaligi nang COVID response pero ng webinar na ito dahil pung walas di sa kanya hindi kami nagtaro ng web tayo nagtaro ng webinar na ganto siya po ang senior advisor of the National Task Force against COVID-19 and currently chair of the Department of Emergency Medicine at the Philippine General Hospital, former undersecretary of health. Welcome back to your webinar Dr. Ted Herbosa and we have a very interesting behind you. So go ahead Ted take the floor. Good afternoon Susie and good afternoon Raymond and good afternoon to everyone and all our speakers and actors today we have lined up a very important group of people and we shift today and we look at the bigger global events. We get away from COVID in a while and we continue to struggle with the pandemic na hindi pa tamos ang pandemic na we are all hoping it's already the end game of the pandemic but before it's even over another global crisis is unfolding right before our very eyes. When we were planning today's webinar what we wanted was to inform people and not to cause panic because of the tensions that were happening in Ukraine and Russia but apparently by yesterday in 24 of February 5 am the armed forces of the Russian Federation with the support of military forces of Belarus launched an intensive shelling of Ukrainian units on the east Delivered missile bomb strikes on airfields in a boarding spill, Orzern, Kulbakino, Chuluf, Kramatorsk, Cholnobak, Kyivya and ang hirap na masabihin ito mga places na to and other military infrastructure of the armed forces of Ukraine. At the same time the aggressor started artillery shelling in areas and settlements along the states border and administrative boundary and also near the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea. The national defense forces using its right for self defense of Ukraine according to article 51 of the United Nations Charter started countering and with dignity was fighting attempts to break the trying to invade into the territory of Ukraine. According to Ukraine and joint forces, meron silang mga napaddaon na aircraft, Anim Dao, Dalawang Helicopter, Apat na Tanki. That's of course the side of what they're saying. Even the UN Secretary General yesterday gave a statement President Putin in the name of humanity bring your troops back to Russia and end this conflict now. And now the alignments are becoming clearer. The Philippines needs to prepare for flash points activity that can happen in Taiwan and the West Philippine Sea. And this is happening as we actually speak and this can happen very fast. And so everyone has to monitor this and what's happening in Ukraine because those things are going to happen also. Maybe, hopefully not in the Philippine area. And China rejected calling Russia's moves on Ukraine as an invasion. Maybe you remember, nag-usap lang tong si Putin at si Zee, Premier Zee sa closing of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. And hindi natin alam ko anong pinag-usapan nila. But ang official statement ang China is not to call it an invasion. And China is closely monitoring official statement ng kanil lang spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry. China is closely monitoring the latest situation we call on all sides to exercise restraint to prevent the situation from getting out of control. And this is perhaps the difference between China and the Westerners. Inabi ng statement nito na you are always rushing into conclusion, she said. And regarding the definition of an invasion, I think we should go back on how the current situation in Ukraine is. The Ukrainian issue is a very complicated historical background. I think they're trying to refer to their Taiwan problem and it may be what everyone is not actually seeing. The spokesperson said that the Ukraine issue is a very complex historical and reiterated that China understands that it was Russia's legitimate concerns on security according to a statement from the Foreign Ministry. Ang Taiwan naman, on the other hand, scrambled their jets yesterday and this is in response to aircrafts entering what they call the Air Defense Identification Zone. Hindi patopart ng teritory ng Taiwan, pero laging lumilipad ang Air Force ng China doon sa area doon, and they scrambled. They saw eight Chinese J-16 fighters on this area and one Y-8 reconnaissance propeller airplane over the southwestern tip of Taiwan, Taiwan's Air Defense in na taong na Air Defense. The Air Defense Identification Zone is an area of airspace beyond the nation's territorial boundary, but it maintains air traffic control over that for the sake of national security. And as we all know, China continues to regard Taiwan as a breakaway province. Many countries recognize that it is one China policy and anytime they want to go that, that's like recovering their territory. So parang they're making an analogy to this. So the defense analysis are speculating that China may move against Taiwan as the chaos of the Russian invasion in Ukraine ensues. So nakita natin, nalagang na-invanger yung buong mundo dahil dito sa nangyari sa invasion of China ng Ukraine by Russia, pero we need to also look at it. And I would like to quote Susie Pineda Mercado, made a nice post in her Facebook account. This morning she wrote, war in Europe will undermine all international COVID control measures of the world. There will be disruptions in supply chains for food, medicines, vaccines and basic commodities. Fuel prices are already soaring. Wheat prices were escalate in Russia and Ukraine and these are the largest producers of wheat. So prices of bread will grow up. Russia reports about 150,000 plus cases of COVID daily. Ukraine with a population of 40 million reports 25,000 cases daily. This war will trigger an unimaginable humanitarian refugee problem in the European continent in the middle of this pandemic that is raging with new variants. This also means that the attention and resources for the pandemic recovery might be diluted because of the human security issues. So palala ng palala ang ating problema, I will end by quoting Pope Francis that he stated, I have great pain in my heart over the worsening situation in Ukraine. And like me many people all over the world are anguished and worried. Once again he asked everyone's peace and to stay and pray and actually fast for this coming as well. So with that, I go back to you Susie and Raymond. Thank you very much for allowing me to do this introduction. Okay, thank you very much Ted. I think that's a great way to frame our topic today. And ending with Pope Francis, I think also is something na pwede natin kapitan, di ba? Ganon tayong pangawakan naman ay ang paninapalataya na our faith. But we want to be informed. So panang I think we really want to bring information to our frontliners because we do feel that this will affect our COVID control efforts. Okay Raymond, over to you. Thank you Dr. Herbosa for setting the tone for our webinar. Before we start with our webinar proper po, we will have our fan quiz po muna. We hope those who are in the Zoom and have logged in sa Mentimeter will be able to participate. We only have two questions for today. As always, those two questions are as follows. If there is a war in Europe which will be affected, ito po ba ang prices of food? Number two, prices of fuel? Number three, availability of drugs and medicines? Number four, OFW repatriation? And number five, ang mental health? So meron na po ang at least 67 who have entered their answers para sa question number one, at least in Mentimeter. I'm not seeing po doos na Zoom kung ilan na po ang sumasagot because I will need co-host powers for that. Anyway, we'd like to greet those who are joining us from LGU Mabalakat Pampanga, from Car Sigma District Hospital, General Mariano Alvarez-Incabite, Foundation University College of Nursing, Dumagete City, from the Bureau of Fire Protection, Zambuanga, J.R. Borja, General Hospital kagayan de Oro. And then for our question number two, ano po ba ang ibig sabihin what the CBRN means? Ito po ba ay bagong club o bago po ang acronym po natin? Is it chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear events? Does it refer to COVID-19 bacteria and RNA viruses? Or number three, cancer, bacterial infection, remission, and neurologic effects? So majority of those who have answered, lapasa po ng 300, have chosen option number one. Ganon din po para po sa ating Mentimeter. Hopefully, those who are joining us internationally are also able to participate po, especially the ASEAN Secretariat from Jakarta, Indonesia, the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan, Chunin Hospital in Taipei, Taiwan, Bukit Mertajam in Penang, Malaysia, the University of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Lunichi Ali University of Glida 2 in Algeria, the UP International Nursing and Healthcare Forum in Lexington, Virginia, Masa group in Burton's Bill, Maryland, and Monton, Canada. We will not be closing our fan quiz po, especially for those who are trying to participate. Hopefully, mas marami po po because we have 681 in the Zoom and mas marami po po sa nadag-dag, sa YouTube and Facebook. So hopefully, you'll be able to join us. Over to you, Dr. Susie. Thank you very much, Raymond. Yeah, very interesting topic we have today. And without further ado, let me introduce our main speaker. Okay, so it is with great pleasure that I'm introducing our presenter. He is a teacher, thinker, leader, human rights lawyer, climate justice advocate, social entrepreneur. Na kikita nyo siya sa radio, sa television kasi na i-interview ito na dahil siya isang dalubhasa, siya din po ay isang educator na magtuturo. He's currently Professor of Law, Philosophy, Governance, and Politics in a dozen universities and learning institutions in the Philippines. He is currently UP Law Professorial Lecturer in Constitutional Law and was formerly Dean of the Atomeo School of Government. It's very fortunate to have, we are very fortunate to have him today, B.C.N. pero na paonlaka niya tayo. Siya po ay dati rin Undersecretary ng Department of Environment and Natural Resources. Kila lang kilala po siya. Dr. Antonio G.M. Lavina. Dr. Tony Lavina. Tony, welcome to the webinar. Salamat na tinanggap mo ang invitation namin. Thank you, Dr. Susie. Thank you to Dr. Raymond, Dr. Ted, and others also of course in the panel and lahat na namin ito ngayon to listen to or watch this webinar, participate in this webinar. Napakahalaga po ng topic natin. Very personal sa akin actually because of the energy aspect kasi na pakalaking implication in terms of my own personal work na nangayari sa Ukraine in terms of energy, in terms of climate change. Sabaw kong giting ko yan namin. But of course it's much larger the dot na yung implications nito. So I have a very short presentation. Go ahead, Tony. I'll slide show mo siya. I'll start with that namin. And crisis in the Ukraine implications for the Philippines. Magiging fokus ko na yung implications for the Philippines. Although hindi natin siya pwede rin iwasan yung implications sa buong mundo kasi some of the implications to us is because of the global implications. Ito yung aking outline. It's good to spend a couple of minutes to understand what's happening. Why did we get here to the crisis, to the war in Ukraine? May pwede bang iblame dito? Sa andapat yung Pilipinas? Just geopolitically. So I'll spend a few minutes there. Then, of course, ilan nito na bangkit na kanina. Ano yung immediate consequences sa atin? Lalo na sa inyo na mga health professionals at sa COVID crisis. Ano yung immediate consequences ng guerra na ito? Yung anong yung sabihin ng pandemia sa loob ng digmaan. Kanina na rinig na natin si Dr. Geologo na kulig ko din. Na bangkit na ano nangyari ng World War I at ang Spanish. Flu ang interaction ng sakit at ang anong nang guerra. So we actually need to reflect on that as well. And then I will look at medium term. Yung a little bit longer than immediate. I mean immediate to me is like six months to one year. Medium term is short as two years. Five years na scenarios. At implications sa atin bilang-bilang bayan. And then to start the ball rolling because the panel will probably be discussing that a lot. How do we respond? Ano yung response natin sa crisis na ito? Anong priorities napat natin? Para di naman tayo helpless. We don't want to catastrophize. Ano yung feel afraid. I have many friends in Europe. Filipino FWs in Europe. Sinasabi na all over Europe people that were huddling in street corners, in coffee shops, looking at their phones, looking at television together. Very worried about what's happening. This is the biggest war in Europe since 1939 or since World War II. There was the Balkans as you know. Pero medyo contained yung Balkans. Yung Balkans and medyo mas civil war yun. All those may Serbia aggressor doon. But na kasi civil war din doon sa loob ng Balkans na yung Croatia, boss niya lalo na and of course Serbia. But this one is bigger than that. Much bigger country. Much more yung kanyang location in terms of Europe. If you look at it, krabi yung location niya in terms of Europe. It's the kind of country and a kind of war that can easily lead to a bigger war. And then of course, I always want to look for the silver lining. Opportunities sa atin dito bilang bayan na maresolve ilang mga bagay na dapat matagal ng neresolve. Just to open up the discussion. Perspectives lang on the crisis, bakit siya nga ganyan? One way of doing this fairly is just looking at the different perspectives. NATO, US, Europe, this is pure invasion of another country. But di naman siya member ng NATO. Hindi sila, di ba? Hindi sila involve militarily. So kanilang response is mainly economic sanctions at political responses. But at the same time, warring sila na this can lead to other countries that are nearby, some of them already NATO. Yung mga Baltic states, yung mga Estonia, Latvia, atyan mga NATO. Of course, Eastern Europe, Poland, Hungary, mga NATO countries na yan. So imagine kung magspill over doon. Of course, warring sila sa economic consequences ng sanctions nila ng guerra. At of course, yung refugee crisis na probably more than a million even more will be going to Western Europe during this crisis if it's specially not contained. So yan ang perspective ng NATO, US, Europe, di ba? Of course, there's a Russian perspective. Incredible, makinigagayputin. It's a historical perspective. There's no such country as Ukraine, according to Putin. Creation lang daw yan ang Bolsheviks. Nilenin yan ang kanyang official na sinasabi that's always been part of Russia. And of course, yung kanyang security concerns na ang pangako nung nagfall yung USSR di ba na hindi mag-expand yung NATO, legally wala naman talaga ng pangako. Gorbachev actually wanted that agreement pero hindi din pumayag yung US ng agreement na hindi sila mag-expand. But the truth is that the threat ng Russia with that expansion is objectively threatened by the expansion of NATO and has made it, di ba? Yung kanyang political excuse for doing this is kung yung Ukraine ay papasok ng NATO at yung internal conflicts within Ukraine kasi may mga Russian-speaking regions sa Ukraine. So we heard Putin say that. I think the personality of Putin is also very important. The speech was really, ito traga, the vision of Putin is to get back the USSR, put it back, di ba? Which is really, take it or leave it, di ba? Parang gano na na klasin na. And he will use the power of Russia for that. In my view, it threatened the use of nuclear weapons during his last speech when he announced na ano na. Kung pakelaman nyo kami, di ba? I have everything, I have a lot of things on my favor that I can use against you. Directed yan to NATO, directed to Europe, directed to US. And then of course the Ukrainian people, di ba? Sympathicos not with Russia, not with NATO, not with US, but with Ukrainian people and particularly civilians of Ukraine we are seeing that suffering that's going on already. May mga friends ako na in Ukrainian, they do not consider themselves Russians. Even if they speak Russian, even their Russian origin but they do consider themselves Ukrainian. From this point of view, and I think for countries like the Philippines, this is an invasion of a small country by a powerful country. Nabangit din kanina ni Ted, China is trying to be certainly not anti-Russia, but at the same time it's been saying that territorial integrity of countries should be respected, et cetera. So we'll have to see how China responds in the days to come at UN Security Council kung makibito ba sila na mga actions, of course Russia will veto those actions. We'll have to see how China will respond to trade, the sanctions, mukang-mukang they'll take advantage of it and in fact supply Russia with what it needs. And of course, biggest thing of all, medium term, tignan natin how China will behave in our own backyard sa South China Sea, sa West Philippine Sea, sa Taiwan on whether what happens in Ukraine will embolden China to also do something similar dito sa loob na, dito sa malapit sa atin. I think those are fair questions to us. Immediate consequences, nabangit na ito nang ilang beses ng government na napdani, sabi ni Secretary Luksin itong priority niya, yung 300 OFW list natin sa Ukraine obviously I would have hoped na ano na nila, nila repatriate na nila, nila lipat na nila to at least to other European countries nearby. But I suppose it's not going to be that difficult kasi 300 lang siya. Although graby ang dito, from what I'm seeing lang parang, in fact may problema ang Russia later on for war crimes dito kasi parang indiscriminate, binobomba mga cities, binobomba ang civilian places and maybe impossible if you cannot have a war in a modern industrial state without hitting cities. Kasi pag mga Middle East, mga Africa pwede naman ang guerra dun lang sa countryside, hindi sa mga cities. But dito, kung titamaan mo cities, talagang tatamaan mo yung civilians. So I think our OFWs are endangered for that reason. Syempre, our OFWs in Europe are all worried kasi unang makakaroon ng crisis sa yung Europe ng refugees. They will accept refugees. That's for sure kasi well to be honest from a race point of view because these are white Europeans. So wala masyadong discrimination in terms of race. And pangalawa siyeprend nearby. Paro din siyang yung Yugoslav yan na na madaming nagpaspomasok from the Balkans, from the Balkan countries na nag-evacuate to western Europe during the civil wars that were there. So syempre may impact yan sa job opportunities, may impact yan sa treatment of OFWs. In general may refugee crisis na yung Europe, even without this, lalala ang refugee crisis sa Europe because of this. And therefore we will be affected. Also our own OFWs will be affected. Alam ko yan kasi, I actually teach a lot of courses in leadership courses at our OFWs in many countries in Europe. And I know they are worried from their posting, from their messages kung anong impact sa kanila. Dito sa Pilipina sa atin at home I think immediately yan yung energy oil gas prices will mararamdaman akagad natin yan baka within the week kung hindi pa siya tumahas, tatas na siya kagad with all its impact on inflation and other prices because your crane is a powerhouse, agriculture, lalala sa wheat, sa corn. All over the world, there will be production crisis, there will be a glut in supply, it's not my expertise in supply chains for medicines, for all the COVID treatment medicines, that will be affected by this, the overall inflation. Ito immediate, as in the next week or so, ito mga consequences na ito ay mararamdaman na at lalala din. But Mars worrisam sa akin, already worrisam na yung immediate consequences for yung midterm, which anything six months to the next years, depending on what happen. Kasi alam nyo, it could very well be, di ko pa alam, di ko pa ma-gage, watching all the different news and all the reports, and reading everything kung how fast Russia will be able to crush Ukraine. Kasi they're all over na, they're even in Kiev na. And it seems that the target is to kill, for example, the president, decapitate the cabinet, yung talagang put up a puppet government as quickly as possible. Of course, every Ukraine na now seems to be armed, so most probably may insurgency, mas madali ang guerra, mas mahirap yung consequences ng guerra, kasi how to stop the war, kasi in this case, it may be an insurgency, so most probably maging protected yung yung guerra na yan, with lots of possibilities of expanding, beyond the territory of Ukraine. And of course, even if Russia wins, the sanctions will be there and there will be, the consequences will stay for a long time. So ito yung mga nakikita kung major ones that have an impact on COVID, an impact on us na. A collapse of global cooperation, di ba of institutions, UN, siyempre in UN Security Council will be, di ba disempowered kasi at least one veto yung, international institutions like WHO, they'll all be affected di ba na nang ganito-classing tension, Russia will also have its allies and Russia and China allied already. Yung malaking ano yun, di di aneasili yung madisregard ng mga institution, so pwede ka talaga mag-stailmate in many decisions. Ako personally, I'm very worried about climate change actions kasi di ba, we're running out of time, we're losing time for the climate emergency na kita na natin yan, naranasan natin yung odet last year di ba.  Economically, ito, the Europeans will need cheap energy. Of course, they'll be pushed na dapat renewable energy but that might not be enough, so they'll have to find oil, they'll have to find, kaya tatasang prices ng oil and gas all over the world, kasi the Europeans will have to find a significant percentage of their energy needs from these places. So, goodbye yung mga emission reductions budapat na, so ako, I'm very worried about that part. The impact of trade on food, on minerals is really quite also important to watch out for na kasi yung economic sanctions, kasi banks will be affected, credit all over the world will be affected and so, kailangan natin binbantayan na, tourism obviously will be will be affected especially in Europe. But mayang magkakaskade yan kasi in security na mga tao na kong magbiahay ka kasi may gara tapos mag-expand yung gara, bakit ka magbi-biahay di ba? Nabangit ko kanina potential consequences to war crimes kung mga raming civilians na papatayin, kong even killing a leader actually of a country sa war crime in itself. So, isayan sa mga potential consequences na na long term, which makes it then even more difficult to find a solution di ba?  And you know, mag-solid yung kanyang empowered doon sa Russia. So, so unless the Russians themselves di ba? May conting demonstrations na all over Russia at least in the cities against the war but so far there's nothing that tells us na di ba ma-overthrow si Putin. And then because of all, at this point, gusto ko lang siyang, di ba kung pag-apark lang natin wag na siyang magmuntay mo siya kasi nakakatakot talaga siya kong iisipin ang mabuti na pwede ang mangyari di ba? Kasi mo, so far yung Chinese di ba? Parang trying to be very rational yung hindi siya, hindi siya kasama sa U.S. na ito et cetera, hindi nang siya super pro-Russian di ba? So parang, parang, I guess they're very, very careful on on what to do so right now, I'm okay with what China is doing in terms of this crisis kasi parang hindi naman sila masyadong nagtitake ng side na na I think more pro-Russian than anyone else but also cautious di ba? I guess they don't know how this will turn out even for Russia. But ang consequence nito kasi if Russia gets away with it China might be involved in in the future di ba dun sa South China Sea including that part of the South China Sea which we claim as West Philippine Sea part of our our exclusive economic zone yung pinagawayan natin sa China and even worse Taiwan di ba? Kasi yung Taiwan na paka-emotional issue yan di ba for China yung any kind of provocation by the Taiwanese themselves or by the by the US for example recognizing something in Taiwan or President of Taiwan ang maganon can lead to that kind of situation na mag-escalate yung tension so kailangan i-park natin siya wag masyadong magpanig matakot doon pero kailangan natin bantayan ng mabutik kasi andaming security issues that will arise if mag-escalate yung tension natin sa China and of course OFWs di ba Taiwan alone 250,000 OFWs Hong Kong same na a little bit more than more than that di ba so lahat yan may impact yan sa COVID may impact yan sa economy natin if eventually of these people have to be repatriated kung gabi na yung tension at escalation and tension okay so may last ano lang may last slide and may last point lang is ano yung priorities natin natin dito sa crisis na na ito to prepare for these scenarios yung mga immediate ones I think ginagawa na nila di ba yung BFA prioritized the OFWs di ba I think they're trying to calm all the different OFWs in the we made it very clear I saw kanina defense secretary lo rin sarasay neutral naman tayo yung tama yun independent foreign policy has to be really followed here di ba nang sasaid ng any one of the of the actors here while also di ba making sure na we we do not want war di ba we do not want invasion by one country over the other I think you can be neutral naman and independent but also saying knowing that you are a small country yourself that can be subjected to this now that's a good principle no war, no invasion big country should not small countries I think we need to go deeper and the needs that we will have to look akay nilagay ko yung last slide together with the scenario slide yung priority slide kasi I think importante tingnan natin ano ba yung ating pending gawin in terms of the diplomacy the institutions the global institutions the ones we need most sa limba ako sa COVID di ba WHO is what we need most in cooperation atin bilateral and multilateral cooperation atin sa vaccine sa treatments kailangan na address agar natin kung ano yung pending magka problema doon and to have alternatives already develop alternatives for for that ganun din sa climate change yung sa trade di ba kung mong tourism mag-suffirm kasi akala natin mag-recover na tayo di sa year then we need to be able to address lalo na yung mga livelihood consequences if you cannot go back to to tourism yet kailangan din ang pangintindi ng history lessons dito sa atin di ba nang bangkit ka ninyani ang what happened during world war 2 and there was a pandemic there was war a lot of disinformation happened di ba a lot of conspiracy theories happened lalo ngayon may social media mas lalo sigurong lalalak na naman yung ano na yan di ba so i think i think the most important part of the learning from history is that the pandemic doesn't stop even when there's a war that it can become in fact a driver for even worse things that will happen i think si Dr. Sousius mentioned that several times na Russia's X number of cases a day and Ukraine has that number of cases kung mag-refugee crisis yung mga rukinyans that's a dummy di mo basta-basta ang mas-screen and then people are still travelling kasi kaya parang nilift na natin yung mga travel restrictions then we need to be careful about what that means the last point I would like to share in terms of insight is opportunity naman yung parang silver lining from this lalo na in the worst case scenarios lalo na ito escalation of China South China si Taiwan di ba or even yung anon yung economic yung magiging escalate ng mabuti yung food prices, gas prices supply chain problem sa medicine di ba so talagang then our government needs to be in war footing also in war time footing so dito matit-test talaga ang leadership di ba both today and after the elections so I think important na now we demand from our leaders the ability to think strategically to be disciplined to listen to experts to make the right decisions for the country to address these scenarios and the consequences and it starts even with the current president di ba ako personally in a crisis in fact when the pandemic started yung aking calling pero parang walang nakikining mas lalo na yung divided tulay tayo but in a crisis existential like this di ba lalo na nga kung mag escalate to attention with China where we have to make very hard choices about our political alliances di ba I think important din yung national unity government di ba yung a true national unity government ba hindi lang yung sinasabingin isang campanya yung para sa aking na national unity government releases all political prisoners appoints people into the cabinet from all the political factions have a political permanent political settlement with all your on all your social conflicts because basically you cannot afford to have any conflict pala nga nangyari sa world war 2 di ba nung palapit na yung gara nang gara na talaga ng Japanese na nagkaroon tayo ng more or less unified na ano which of course quickly disappeared after world war 2 yung nang malungkot doon so I think may opportunity din to have that leadership gap filled and have a national unity government that can address this worst case scenarios if in fact if it unfolds that way so yun na po thank you very much and looking forward to your questions and to the discussion of the panel Thank you very much that's Dr. Tony LaVinia UP professorial lecturer in constitutional law and former dean of the Atinayo School of Government Thank you Tony and I think you'll see in the chat that our participants appreciate your very broad very broad analysis of what's happening kasi siyempre frontliners natin busy sila di ba busy sa mga paciente busy sa mga pamilya baganda kasi we step back and we hear from an expert what the big picture looks like and I think you really did that very well so thank you so much Tony and I'm going to turn over to Raymond Raymond go ahead for our reactors Thank you sir Tony for really just giving us a glimpse pa lang po I mean 30 minutes is not enough for us to be able to really appreciate all of the things and the implications of the Ukraine Russia issue but hopefully that will spur us on to think more along the lines of how can we prepare especially when it hits us Our first reactor for today's webinar is a senior lecturer at the UP College of Law He is both a medical doctor and a lawyer His areas are in medical jurisprudence and global health law Please welcome to the webinar for the very first time Dr. Daniel Lissing So hello Raymond thank you for the kind introduction Well let me start my reaction by addressing some of the concerns that was raised by the Dintoni One of the concerns that was raised by Dintoni was the collapse of global institutions Now the World Health Organization to say functions through the World Health Assembly which is composed of about 194 members both sovereign countries and some territories and the way it operates is by consensus Now whenever you are going to have a war any war would be polarizing and when it polarizes the executive board will be paralyzed So what happens what happens to the pending important treaties are going to be debated in the World Health Assembly One of the big problems there is that currently we are negotiating a pandemic treaty What happens to the pandemic treaty when we have a well a war between one of the largest members of the United Nations which is Russia and it will polarize because of course Russia has already prepared in advance before it embark on this so it has cemented its alliances So and those alliances will show whenever the World Health Assembly needs Another thing about well this was illustrated by the by the pandemic that there's really no country that is self-sufficient and can function on its own and that's why there is a treaty signed by through the World Health Organization clearly the International Health Regulations My International Health Regulations require that there's international cooperation so that we will report any type of event that is of global concern So it's called the International Health Regulations called the Public Health Emergency of International Concern of Project Now what happens during a crisis such as this is that well who will enforce these publications on member states if the problem there is nobody wants to appear weak whenever there is situations like this so people will start trying to like what happened in the 1918 Spanish flu nobody was reporting this because there was a lockdown in communications but remember that during the time so no social media means that nobody well you can control all the news outlets no newspapers can come out that's the reason why it's called the Spanish Flu is because well only Spain reported it but it didn't really start with Spain so it's a it's a misnomer but right now the other extreme is happening because of the presence of social media there's so many sources of information now there will be an excess of information and you'll have a hard time filtering out this information and because of this type of situation the opposite extreme there will be you'll have a hard time making proper decisions now another thing that can happen also here is in case a country well something that happened before regarding the flu is virus sovereignty some countries might want to keep the genomic sequences of viruses that appear in their jurisdictions to themselves well it gives them a strategic advantage they allow themselves to develop a vaccine and then they only give it to their strategic partners now that's a big problem laluna if it is something like covid spread throughout the world and we all know that the refugee crisis that a conflict creates facilitates the movement of people and the movement of people is actually what drives pandemics because it will well you don't know if you're a carrier or not and you can bring all of these diseases to different areas like what professor geologo said during the time that there was a bubonic plague it was brought through animals it was during the Spanish flu it was brought through people people coming home from the war people being posted to the war and then when they go back they are carriers that's why the flu spread throughout the world so that's a big problem in that particular aspect now another thing about that can impact global health is like what said global supply chain now we all know like I said earlier there's no country that's self sufficient that applies to everything that applies to manufacturing medicines that applies to vaccines and the like so some part of the vaccine might need to come from the countries that are in conflict and because they're in conflict there's an embargo so there's no way by which we can get those raw materials so that other countries manufacture them into medical products and medical devices that are needed by our own citizens another aspect here that is problematic is whenever you have a conflict there is a closing up of airspace ceilings and territorial borders now the problem there is those are the means by which goods travel and if you close them off there will be no way you'll have to go to a roundabout route and since like Bintoni said there will already be a problem with regards to fuel nobody would be an increase in the amount that would drive prices up now global health also has something to do with food security and since Ukraine is a major producer of wheat I think like more than 50% of wheat comes from Ukraine then it has an impact on our country as well because we may be I'm not quite sure about this some other person might be more of an expert on this but we might be importing these wheat products and because there is a conflict then we might not be getting the products that we need in order to supply our own citizens with bread and if you recall not regarding this particular but remember what happened to us during the the African swine flu where a lot we we had an experience where in a lot of the hogs in northern Luzon cannot be traded had to be killed and we had increase in the value or the prices of this particular products pork products tapos there is a situation where we don't want to, for example nobody wants to allow products from another area to come in because of concerns then that really exacerbates the food security problem but with regard to the China and the possibility of well the thing about the response if you look at it is primarily economic yung sanctions and they are making embargoes their phasing bank accounts but China has been embarking on a aggressive belt and road initiative basically they have partnered with multiple nations in the Middle East and North Africa and not even only North Africa but South Africa they already secure these markets even if they joined the conflict, they might have secured their markets already so if we are only going to maintain embargoes and sanctions of that nature as a means to contain the beligrance or the people that are involved in this conflict what can happen is it might not be sufficient to stop them from escalation so actually that's i think that's my particular take on the matter okay thank you very much thank you very much Dr. Daniel Leasing again thank you i think our audience really appreciates these insights about the World Health Organization para siyang domino ang daming mga na di natin kaagad nakikita but sa health no in that your expertise global health you can really see that there are so many challenges that could occur from this event okay so let's go to our next reactor our last reactor for today and by special request i think we had him before and very much appreciated on this webinar he is a former director of the Philippine General Hospital former undersecretary of health and actually nagaral ang medicine say yung pidiba pero nagaral din to sa National Defense College and has been really very involved with the defense sector so without being good to bring him back to get his reaction to this so it's my honor to introduce reintroduce and welcome to the webinar Dr. Johnny Nanyagas Johnny over to you Thank you Susie for that introduction I would also like to thank Drs. Lissing and Labinio because they have touched on most of the relevant topics but let me add some food for thought before the invasion one of the considerations that the commander of Ukrainian land forces was looking at they were hoping that the invasion would not proceed they saw that 2400 out of 150,000 Russian troops at that time tested positive for COVID but apparently that did not factor into the equation Russia is still invaded now one of the questions that we have been discussing is now that this conflict has broken out how will it affect the Philippine health system in most military planning processes they they look at scenarios no one of the scenarios they will think of is what they call the most probable scenario another scenario they will look at is the most dangerous scenario most probably in the Philippines we will evacuate OFWs from Ukraine and some of them already have gone home and this may bring some ray of hope it's not too worrisome as there are only about 300 in Ukraine if it affects the security and I include economic security and safety of surrounding countries Belarus, Moldova, Russia Romania and Poland the influx of pretending OFWs will increase but I think may still be manageable remember we have experience in dealing with health safety protocols and COVID protocols from our last two years of COVID for me the most dangerous or worrisome scenario would be if China decides to take advantage of this situation and invades Taiwan as Dr. Herbosa and Dr. Labinya have mentioned they have been testing the waters for several months with flybys by their planes although Taiwan is not too far so it will not be too difficult to repatriate ROFWs the number 250,000 Filipinos there that will cause problems with our processing if they all come in at the same time however we can assume that if they were allowed to work there they are most probably fully vaccinated so whether from Europe or Taiwan we can reasonably assume full vaccination status so our health system will be able to cope with the impacts of ROFW another worrisome scenario although remote issue conflict involves our territories and for that the government in fact the whole health sector has to work together and plan health services in the regions where our military and national security experts expect expeditionary forces to land I am sure think tanks abroad and I hope that we also have them here have estimates on the number of casualties both civilian and military and the necessary facilities equipment, material and personnel to address them if ever that remote possibility happens for me whether in the front lines or attending civilian refugees the vaccine status of our military personnel must be updated a completely box military will prepare them for frontline duties but will also prepare them for disaster relief as you can see it played a part in considering whether Russia would invade or not but apparently they don't mind if their soldiers are positive now supply chain problems have also been mentioned so food shortages was mentioned and you all know that a poorly nourished country will have people with poor immunity as Dr. J. Alongo mentioned now I don't know if FDA or the National Security Council has studied if our pharmaceutical supplies will suffer we did a study a long time ago we showed that we have around 6 months supply of medicines if all imports stop but we know that panic can change that kasi a few weeks ago parasetem mo lang nagkulang kasi panik baying o mga tao the late doctor po nung bayan also told me when I was presenting the concept of this study na oh you don't have to study that magaling naman mag-ismagil ang piri pino say so I hope that's true if ever we get medicine shorted now another question that was mentioned was have we had drills on CBRNE I'm giving away the answer to the question CBRNE and E would be chemical, biologic radiologic, nuclear and E is explosives event to my knowledge recently I have not heard of one of hand we probably must start with a national agency and a plan the federal government in the US for example has a CBRNE brands of its prep program which is partner partner readiness and emergency program division that advises the federal agencies state agencies local, tribal and territorial levels on public health and medical aspects of CBRNE preparedness and response they have and we should probably do the same identified members of the subject matter advisory resource team or SMART to produce immediate response informational guidance products provide decision support and deploy subject matter experts to incident operations center now to me that's the easy part we have to consider for example if we do want to prepare for CBRNE what are the treatment modalities I'd say for a radiologic accident where is their supply chain what is their storage how are they transported affected in various it is also imperative that training should be conducted whether desktop or field exercises no matter how good you are in conceptualizing our plans if you do not practice then it may be disastrous in the actual situation although we are discussing handling COVID and its effects during conflict it will be a good exercise I've been talking about exercise to look to and prepare for the future so will it be advisable for us for example to create three quarantine and isolation islands like the famous Ellis Island in New York it's only 12 hectares yet at its chain day it was able to handle immigrants at their own power source hospital, laboratories dormitories at other facilities it can also be used for other purposes like training or an evacuation center for disasters so with that short look into the future I'll end my comments and bring it bring the show back to Raymond and Susie ok, thank you very much that's Dr. Johnny Nanyagas former DOH under secretary and PGH director and again I think our audience very much appreciates your inputs Johnny because it's very practical and Johnny knows the health sector very well so I think he's given us some suggestions on what the health sector needs to do ba balik pa rin natin sa COVID yun lang meron parang mas malawak problema sa likod natin so we are now going to we're not going to our panel discussion and I'd like to invite all of our guests so Johnny Daniel Tony and Ted to open your cameras and your mics and I'm turning over to Raymond who will give us a short break well we're waiting for them we'll just have a very quick public service announcement po which for today very special din naman po with regards to the topic that we have over to you TVUP oh ako mukhang malalim niyang iniisid mo ka mula ka magpasok ngayon malap ko sinfaction po siya sa grocery ah ganong ba beti ba wala rin ka yung pasokahabong patin mo yung isang alam sana makabalik na ako sa trabaho oh siya siya din na mo nakitay store buyan at mukhang malalim niyang iniisid mo look magpabakuna na kaya tayo wala ang problema po maawin dahil mal ko kayo magpapabakuna ako thank you so much TVUP that's something that might well spur on po something to think about with regards to the economic effects po ng ongoing po nating pandemic as well as ito po yung Ukraine Russia issue our COVID communication public service announcement po is just one of the many outputs of the UP research entitled communicating COVID-19 in post quarantine Philippines headed by the UP vice president for public affairs Dr. Neni Purnia and funded by the PCHRD and the Department of Health through its ahead HSPR project over to you Dr. Susie thanks a lot Raymond Raymond we're going to monitor any questions that we have on Facebook please ay on Facebook lang pala na wala tayong live stream sa YouTube Facebook oh we have we have oh sorry YouTube chaka Facebook okay just put it in and we're monitoring that so we'll pick up your questions but I'd like to ask our reactors kasi I'm glad Johnny mentioned yung CBRN ENO that war in World War II was quite different would be really very different from war today and one of the things that that we need to think about that Russia already employed prior to the invasion of Ukraine was cyber cyber attacks so I'm going to ask all of you to kind of respond to that just really very quickly because iba na ngayon itura ng gerang ayon ayon e di ba parang and I think everyone has talked already about the possibility of I like what Johnny said na parang gawa parang a mild scenario where it's not really mild if prices of oil and food go up versus really getting dragged into war, those are kind of very extreme but maybe I'll start with Ted because I said to you na cyber warfare is probably something that we'll need to prepare for and I think in the health sector impotantirin yan sa atin kasi mga hospital natin our equipment, our machines are all digitalized so Ted, you want to talk about that a little bit? Actually if you look at the history na rumbata ako magbasa na mga war stories and the way to invade a country is really to start with air bombing start with an air force you bomb the area, you bring in the marines, a naval advance and then the tanks come in and then you invaded the country and take it over but today we see that that's going to be different some people can attack another country through cyber warfare and several nations have actually put up units of their armed forces just to disable a separate country in fact there are talks of being able to control airplanes in the sky and boats and ships and water through just cyber hacking and attacking the control panels of all these aircraft so indeed yan it has to take into a picture and that has happened before the US put the Stuxnet virus into the power generation of Iran so that's that's something that Russia can do but what I've been reading here is that it's the Russian sites that are being attacked by cyber on the internet so it seems that Ukraine might be using that to counterbalance the physical might but I'll add to your point because I heard all the talks and there's something that I'd like to really I've been advocating ever since I was under I was pushing for a health attaché in countries where we have a lot of Filipinos and of course kinauzap po nung yung DFA secretary the DFA secretary no problem just to propose it it turns out if you do propose a health attaché that can take care of the health conditions of Filipinos overseas it's got to be in the budget of the DOH and mahal you have to pay for the salary of the health attaché ilang country yan andaming country that may Filipinos may health attaché in every embassy that's a whole huge department tapos na yan you have to sustain their cost of living magagalit sa atin ang mga Filipino because you'll be paying for a lot of health attaché elsewhere whereas the health care of Filipinos e kulang-kulang pa ang gamut nilas so na napatayan but I think in the global context now this has got to be a discussion especially now that we're having elections the importance of how do we take care of our overseas Filipinos there's still Filipino citizens and we need to put a budget on this we need to put a handle on this para hindi nga dinong tatakbo agad yung secretary of foreign affairs pupunta sa Poland there should be a health attaché there taking care of the land entry of the 300 Filipinos in Ukraine entering through Poland and masikaso sila ka agad and wala tayong problema so to me these structures need to be built this health attaché and I don't expect all countries I expect that countries where there are a lot of Filipinos and I think Tony Nielvinia mentioned some of these countries and Taiwan might be one of those I think I'd like to put a health attaché in the you can call it an attaché right it's the Manila Economic Economic Cooperation Office it's not an embassy but you'd like to put a health person there so that when you prioritize 250,000 that you want to evacuate unahin mo yung may health issues at may magagawan mo siya ng paran so to me these are the types of capacity building that we need to to learn from these global lessons we need to invest in these things and we need to make this part of our health system actually ang dami na lang yung news check ako ako laki tinatawagan ng DFA ambassador pag may iriripatri ay ang hirap kasi you're talking with medical community medical diagnosis medical egg dumadaan laki sa DFA and imagine if there was a doctor there already na naintingdian the facilitation would have been very very fast so yun nang isa sa mga contribution ko dito sa reactions thank you thanks a lot Ted really food for thought having health attaché and also your inputs on cyber attacks Tony let's hear from you on the cyber attacks and also I think you're in a good position to comment on having health attaché go ahead Tony that's really a good point I mean the approach na we're very vulnerable obviously sa cyber attack na if that's the worst scenario with China happens then clearly we are also very vulnerable to that they don't even really have to attack us to our electric system our computers lahat but sa akin more than anything doctor Susie this is ang approach kasi and this is a global person you're talking to I actually put my when I introduced myself I always put Mindanaon Filipino citizen and global citizen kasi gusto ko emphasize yun na na I think global I've worked for 10 years abroad I do a lot of I negotiate for the Philippines in many many agreements kanyan so I'm a very globalization person pero was very clear kasi kailangan na self sufficiency di ba in as much as you can in everything di ba in a war yun talaga yun kailangan mo na ano and and lalo na ngayon na napaka ang difference sa war ngayon sa nuon is yung ating interconnectedness di ba we are so interconnected na na yun na yun sa supply chain na nabanggit na natin yun di ba but ito sa computer sa ano so really important to kaya importante sa akin yun needs assessment yun sinasabi ko kailangan talaga mo malino needs assessment and response so sa akin yun yun health attache di ba yun na makailangan tent sa lahat ng country yun kasi kailangan naman sa mga marami yun piliang marami yun may health so yun you're probably not talking about you're probably talking about 15-20 di ba some countries some regions can be regional siya di ba kasi correct ano so I think it's a good idea for that kasi napakaspecialized na ng pangailangan even when you repratrate di ba na so I think it would be good especially because of covid na yun how will you saan yung initial screening mo di ba your initial screening will still be in your embassies and in your account di ba in the country of origin before they come back di ba so ano I don't think we can we should stop di ba we should not allow our Filipinos and I think Australians and New Zealanders in the last two years at Kawawa I have to tell you kasi talaga binabawal umue parang ano I don't think we can do that but I think we can be rational about it so yun lang pa Thanks a lot to Nino and Ted I mean I think we have the most OFWs in Saudi Arabia I think about a million and then we have a lot in Taiwan in Hong Kong obviously we also have Europe so I think we don't have to have in all but we do and we can I think this Raymond this is for you right we can deploy telehealth services also for the ones where we cannot put the health authorities di ba kasi iba yung traumatized na Filipino na kausap niya Filipino din kasi nakita ko yan sa Cambodia sa Vietnam na sa WHO parang pag ang isang Filipino ay merong problema at ibigay mo sa doctor na hindi na kaintindi hindi tayo na iintindihan napakahirap and a lot of the issues are about trauma so especially in war you will be dealing with a lot of mental health issues okay anyway Daniel what do you think of this new new ways that war will be fought and what kind of preparation should should they help sector have one of the things that I want to illustrate is you remember when the power grid of the United States collapse in New York they were without power for so many days and in that particular scenario you so have how vulnerable we are kasi if you shut down a person's power grid their food security suffers wala silang refrigerator they lose everything they lose communications they lose warmth they lose in that particular area satan we lose water supply because of the requirement for pumping stations so really yung effects satan on cyber warfare would be not just software but infrastructure wise it is very heavy another thing about it is our country is heavily ascending state so we send out to many many countries our workers and our Filipinos depend heavily on the communications infrastructure that are dependent on the internet and dependent on the on power so that's really a very big problem if you suddenly cut it off China has this great firewall if they're able to use it against people in China they can certainly have that experience to use it against us now with regard to the health attache one of the things that we have to consider is that one of the things about the Philippines is we have a lot of health workers abroad so it's not really required that you physically station somebody there because you already have people there that are health workers all we have to do is tap the very very deep Filipino community actually that's one of the weaknesses of western Europe right now they lack health workers that's why they're draining us health workers because because they don't have nurses they don't have medical personnel and these medical personnel are in a very good situation to understand the local systems the local conditions and relay it to the to the Filipino counterpart so actually um I think that's that's an opportunity rather than a big problem for us we just have to make sure that we have to designate people because the problem is too many cooks spoiled the bro the dish and ina nangyari ninsan too many people are giving in putting information and causing disinformation in the end yeah thank you very much Daniel for those for sharing those thoughts um uh Johnny you were the one who raised uh CBRNE which I think we need to talk about a little bit with our frontliners no and when I was with the Red Cross I was doing some some tabletop exercises with the team here because there was a U.S. training for the fire department and the Red Cross of course was was involved in it but um Johnny no so if we go to the inakapangit na scenario okay so we said okay the easy scenario is probably uh we're not involved it will be mainly about supplies like when Crimea was was was invaded prices of gasoline but what if alright what if we get to a point where there is really kinetic warfare that affects the Philippines and um other kinds of weapons are used like nuclear weapons for example if there was a conflict with Taiwan or if you know the neighbor there in North Korea thinks na they need to pay to get some attention to uh what so what do we need to do to prepare for that Johnny kasi ano e no parang I don't want to scare people but I do believe that we have to be able to prepare and predict no because um that's what happened to us in COVID we knew in the public health sector na mga pwedeeng mga ngarito and yet we did not prepare so anong tingin mo dyan Johnny how do we how do we get to a point where we're actually prepared for the worst case scenario yan ano ba yan well uh yeah if if we look at um the developed countries uh they already they think of scenarios and what if this scenario happens uh this this would be my possible uh uh this destructive area in that destructive area even if it's not destructive if this is the area of my uh my biological exposure ilan tao ang pwedeeng uh maapektuhan ano ang kailangan moong dumot ano ang kailangan moong facilities kahit na at least ang gilaguan ang iba meron silang playbill nakalagay na ang mga scenarios na yan hinuhugot na lang I've seen it in the US military na halimbawa earthquake in Indonesia bubonutan bubonutan lang nila ang kanilang playbill nakasulat na don sinong papadala sa anong gagaling tapos sitting di ba parang at least pero kung umpisahan mahirap yung Aba tayong ganoon? Wala ba tayong ganoon, Johnny? I have not really seen one we were trying to develop uh ano uh those no but uh in fact we were trying to develop something where uh details like if this happens call this number uh this person you speak to tapos you start uh a cascade of actions that will uh that will set the the ball rolling no we wanted to do something like that in instap death at the time iton man, stop COVID-19 but I think it can be done uh we're not lacking in uh forward thinkers no ang program lang pag misan pag sa implementation uh makakita na ang bawa you're supposed to have a stockpile of uh anti-rejation uh sickness medicines uh tapos makakita mo yung pala wala na e-stop pa na benta pala yung mga ano lang uh alam kaya uh our planner should should at least start something so we have a guide it's like sailing uh we have a map no it's hard if you don't have a map so let's start with trying to get a map of what we want to do in case of those things no yeah thanks a lot Johnny Ted can you talk a little bit about this because you're now head of the ER department of PGH and we all know that if a worst case scenario occurs PGH comes to the front of this uh we didn't you know in COVID that is exactly what happened parang there was a lot of discussion around it but at the end of the day PGH rallied to be the kind of technical technical lead in uh in COVID and I think that role has been played very well by the Philippine General Hospital of course there were other hospitals Lang Center and Jose Rodriguez but you know what if we're ready on the precipice of this what what should we be doing what would you like to do actually what we had been trying to do okay so actually when I was executive vice president of the university one of the degrees we wanted to put up was this one CBRNE and we were trying to find a home for whoever with it kasi yung ating national poison control Irma Makalino has been pushing CBRNE we have a unit already at the emergency department with capacity from the U.S. aid from the U.S. government with all the decontamination and equipment so there's actually improvement the armed forces also have their own teams for this but I think what is more important behind these response teams is really the support science behind it and these are building say for biological we need to have that virology institute like 10 decades ago right we should have built that and would have been used like it can be used for a pandemic and it can be used for a we need a vaccine production if you want to fight biological vaccine production is another one and then so we have a national poison control we don't have we only have one we should have a poison control unit and toxicology center in every region right so it's all the regions where we actually have one so we and then we have to train our emergency service I'm communicating with someone watching Mr. Colonel with the Bureau of Fire ang Bureau of Fire meron din tayong capacity na rin for CBR but what has happened is there are spatterings of efforts in different agencies in government someone needs to consolidate and solidify all these efforts into a unified system and invest I think the country needs to invest in this because it's sad when it happens and we don't have it para itong COVID-19 nagkakamahog tayo to get vaccines when it back we should have produced a vaccine center way back may project kung ayon hindi lang tinuloy ang predecessor namin ang vaccine self-sufficiency project but I think there are things we miss that we actually should be doing I think that's why conversations like this are very important panels like this are very important because it opens up the minds of the young people listening to this but at tanda na kami na Dr. Labinye and Johnny Dan Jagas ipapasa na namin yung baton because this requires capacity and capability building more than just initial action well of course leadership is important but again this requires building blocks building blocks in chemical and industrial set up so that you are prepared it requires like for example I trained in Israel you know their chemical decontamination is the whole parking lot at the back of the Kameshiva Medical Center you know they set up showers in the lamp posts so their lamp posts at night but during a chemical disaster in the drill the cars all go away and the people are decontaminated in that area yung the Rambam Hospital naman for pandemic they converted the several parking floors of the hospital na aliskin lahat ng kochi doon big lang COVID ward na siya and they used that during the COVID ward so those are the things we need to be building dual purpose dual purpose units that can prepare us for the eventualities that are not so common kasi kahit sa bagyulang evacuation center ginagamit pa rin nata iskwelahan so I think we need to start building and thinking about all those yung mga highly probable na disasters and build the right structures for them and then also think of like the CBR in Ian conflicts and we also think about how to have dual purpose dual purpose infrastructure for them so that we can respond just in case those events happen in the Philippines nice galing ano ano eh parang di naman tayo nagkukulang ng talino para inte kukulang na itiya pero pag dating talaga dun sa gagawin na dun yung may palya palya dudun e so we have to but I think this is really great to have you guys here and to have this conversation and Raymond I think you'd like to pick up on a question some questions from the audience some of these have already been tackled Dr. Suzie but this one well I'll choose the one that's a little bit more unique this comes from Claire and her question reads gender based violence increases in times of crisis so how will the double crisis of the war and the pandemic impact the health and gender based violence and its implications in the Philippines and how do we respond to them Tony Sikuran Tony Love Magandang question yun we know that we know that happens I mean so dapat part na yun of the needs assessment mo di pa sa kung mag-repatration ka tiba kung may refugee crisis ka dapat you have to be ready for that na mina I dein ko lang sinabi Dr. Nyagas kanina about yung how important yung scenario is not planning is tiba na manong plano for every scenario alam mo hindi tayo magaling doon magaling tayo magaling tayo actually sa na-invisha naman natin naman kailangan naman kailangan In fact this is really nice ano nawa yung DOS came out with a very good book yung Pagtanaw 2050 which is about yung role of science in all the different fields looking at 2050 ano pwede ang galing andami natin pwede ng gawin kasi gabi yung alam naman natin ang galing yung human capacity natin yung human resource capacity natin di pa but ang kulang nakikita ko doon is na doon yung capacity building pero which is important pero yung capacity building for specific crisis na ready mo siya ay pull out wala so every time may crisis tayo na di ba na impeto tayo impeto tayo ng bago napo para sa gesture it's all institutional memory butin na lang yung sabi ng itang patandana kami so I know I know for example it's an institutional memory na I can call Ted and you know we also communicate in matatawagan ko siya any time di ba dapat kasi hindi nung kalal na yung all over the world ang Pilipinas dapat nga nung kang institutional responses di ba na na ready na to pull out any time I think priority talaga priority talaga yung given na di ba the stakes in this pero opportunity yung Susie di ba that the crisis gives us kasi may oras pa tayo eh kasi yung yung long term medium term scenario sa akin di ba that won't unfold for another month or two di ba yung immediate ang mula na tayo magawa doon yung talagang but we really have to prepare for all those other things there's no excuse for it di ba yeah told me there's an interesting comment here in the chat sabi sabi well all those publicly visible presidential candidates do not have this thinking so let the private sector initiate all of these ideas what do you think of that toon we have to challenge our presidential balls I mean really our our candidates di ba sa akin personally naging game changer yung crisis na ito di ba kasi you really have to have a and I'm busy na wala nan-partisan ako even now I try to do that to help people but importante talaga you have to have an adult di ba you have to have yung work ethic na you need a 24-7 president for this kind of crisis di ba someone who listens to experts bring experts in di ba good management skills strategic thinkers di ba yung may gravita I mean all of those things na para if ever we need a president that really is able to be a crisis manager this is the time kasi grave nandiyan pa yung COVID di ba din natin alam I mean kung may ibabang muka ang COVID di ba di pa natin alam yan alam natin ngayon may jo makakarilaks tayo nang konte pero alam ko din na ready na ko anytime na science and I know that kahit sino sa inyo magsabi na tapos na COVID di naman ako nang diwala kasi I have to listen I have to swatch muna for what happens it's a very it's a very deceptive enemy di ba so at then itung crisis na ito di ba so I think I think very important sa aten yung leadership opportunities to really have good leaders to do this hindi nang kasi siya pere private sector lang sa tuto lang di naman talaga siya pere na kasi kung private sector lang na naman parang to each is own na naman tayo di ba hindi ito pwede ito talagang totaling tinatawag na whole of nation approach di ba in the real sense di ba na wala ka talagang dapat iniiwanan dito at dapat pinapakinggan mo lahat siya can I comment? siya, go ahead then I want to thank the one who asked the question on gender I've been in working in disaster risk reduction for a long time and we've actually discovered that there is a problem there is a vacuum of gender issues in crisis management and crisis response and the reason for this is when we sit around the table of us disaster risk people we look at each other and walang gender balance panayilalaki kami that they're interested in this field we need to get more women interested in issues of crisis management disaster risk reduction climate change when there are more women sitting around the table it changes my perspective alam ko yan eh all my children are daughters ba ba ilahat na anak and when I sit on the table my choice of food what I wear what I say is all commented on by women around the table five women on the table and that's very important to me when people are planning the direction of the country in terms of chemical, biological crisis management, disaster risk kailangan may equal balance of women there so it's very important that the women get engaged we need to have some women na mag-lead ito maging interested in crisis and disaster risk and climate advocacy sa climate marami marami sila pero sa disaster emergency response crisis pag tingin ko around the table siguro may isa pero of ten or twenty people lahat kayo panayilalaki so very important if she wants that address next month is women's month march is women's month and before this conference I was listening to young women in science sa paase and I was so impressed with these young women in science so we need these women also sitting down around the table of risk and crisis so that we can have that those issues actually addressed during these times thank you thanks for the point okay so Daniel go ahead I just want to comment regarding yung sinabi about private sector leadership one of the problems in private sector leadership is something that has been encountered in global health funding because if you leave it all to private sector nagkakaroon sila ng silos we're interested only in this we're only interested in this so if you leave it completely to the private sector that is something that has been already seen in for example the AIDS response parang we have disproportionate funding and AIDS response and disproportionate thinking pero wala tayong nag-isip na emerging in fact emerging in the emerging infectious diseases kasi di naman sila na affectohan private sectors kasi they usually fund things that they are interested in or personally affect them and that's why we cannot fully give it to private sector to think about this this must be really private and public partnerships cannot be just one to be able to be affected thank you okay thank you very much Daniel for that point okay so didn't say something to see yeah yeah Johnny go ahead no just 15 seconds I can just say yeah just a follow up on what Dr. Laysing said no na I have seen a private sector establishment and this was mentioned in one of the comments at chat na you need something like the RAND Corporation to do something like this yung mga strategic thinking I think it can be done and as Dr. Laysing said it has to be both private and public Johnny takip mo na namin takip yung mukha mo can you picture camera matakpan ang problema kasi sa private sector unless yung mga mag-fund nito ay very altruistic they need to make money but this is what the RAND Corporation has done it has converted into a commercial venture but they have the experts or they go to the experts and hire them for questions that arise such as the questions that we have raised here so I think we should involve the private sector look at the big corporations and ask them to put some punch into things like this because they they do this also big companies have crisis management committees that take a look at economic, geopolitical et cetera and how will it affect their business so this time not just their business but how will it affect the country so I think somebody can start it someone from the big companies very good point so ang gandang, ang ganda usapan sorry, wala na tayo okay so I'm going to I'm going to ask our panel to take a one minute break right and just formulate your parting words for our audience you can see the comments their appreciation of your talks Ted, maraming nag-agrisayo na tapat mas maraming babae you can see our audience is very interactive they like to share what they're they're thinking so we'd like you to formulate your parting words and meanwhile we're going to do an evaluation and Raymond you're going to answer the fun quiz first let's go yes let's go with the fun quiz first the two questions that we have if there is a war in Europe which will be affected po and there's really not just one answer for this question and I think we've already heard from our experts po that all of these will be affected prices of food, price of fuel drugs and medicines repatriation, mental health so these really are sort of the just tip of the iceberg ng mga maapektuhan po kung magtuloy-tuloy at lumala po ang gera po sa Europa second question will pose to our experts para mangaling na po sa kanila maybe Dr. Leasing can answer this what the CBRN mean kasi po may mga iba parin po na sumagot ng ibang kasagutan so ano po ang tamang kasagutan Dr. Leasing for this one? the answer is the chemical biological radiologic and nuclear events thank you Dr. Daniel so yung po ang ating takamang sagot so hopefully that's something that sticks when you hear of the acronympos CBRN especially in the context of what we're talking about we also have our evaluation poll for our panelists it's a comprise of five questions four point like or scale can we have it on the screen thank you so much the statements are as follows the panelists demonstrated thorough knowledge of the topic the panelists were well prepared and organized the panelists spoke clearly and audibly number four the panelists used appropriate language with technical medical jargos as they could explain and number five the panelists contributed to new perspectives and knowledge on managing key COVID-19 health issues I think it's a little bit fluctuating but hopefully maray po ang sumagot ng ating evaluation poll wala po kami hiwali na evaluation poll eto lang po talaga ang aming evaluation poll lalo na po sa mga direct message at nag e-email po sa amin we will continue to keep that open ng evaluation poll and for those who well a little bit po na ano na hindi naman well just because of their busy schedule hindi po mapanood in its entirety lalo po yung mga nakamis po ng ating webinar for today meron po tayong tinatawag na SCD Shorts these are just very very short clips that we have prepared just very easily consumable po just going straight to the point for all of our previous webinars hopefully you'll be able to watch them just a few minutes po and we really enjoying you if you're not able to watch the webinars in the playback to watch these short clips po over to you Dr. Susi okay thank you so much for those announcements Raymond okay so parting words let's start with backward Dr. Nanyagas Jani well as I've said if we are going to start let's start with a plan and when we take a look at an issue let us take a look at both intended and unintended consequences ibig sabihin hindi lang yung nakakita natin ng mga nyayari lahat ng pwede yung mga nyayari based on what happened may mga effect kasi na hindi mo nakakita yung pala so keep your minds open keep your eyes open and look at all the possibilities that may happen thank you that's Dr. Jani Nanyagas wait Daniel go ahead hi so actually I'll frame my closing remarks for the garden we really have to start thinking strategically and we have to start creating infrastructure that can address these types of issues like Dr. Ted said and we really should create dual use type of technology and even just developing our national emergency response system should be something that should be made a priority this was illustrated in our in what happened in COVID we didn't even have ambulances so we really needed to to create a national system so that we could address these types of issues thank you thank you very much Dr. Daniel Lee Singh Tony Lavinia Tony go ahead thank you I guess for me the last point I would like to make is let's not waste this crisis let's in fact put into place regardless of whether the worst scenarios come about all the things that we should have done years before sa crisis management in this type of of issues so that's what yun lang nasana ma-identify natin yun and then gawin natin siya in the next couple of months mabilis hal parang akala natin when we started talking about this it will be weeks away and then even before this event na-invade na so I think it's important to use this as an opportunity to leverage actions that we should have done a long time ago yun lang pa, thank you thank you very much Tony Ted, for thing words do I have one hour? na because disaster management and my parting words are you know what, crisis will always happen disaster risk will always happen what is important is how we as individuals are going to respond to it and I will ask the government to do what they have to do but what is more important is each individual for example each head of family must have a family disaster plan do you have a go back do you have a common place to go to after let's say we are invaded by a big country pa anong gagawin mo sa family mo and these are things you need to think about you need to think about this and probably discuss this in the dining table with your family make sure that kung nag-invade tayo nabiglan ng military uniform na sa otyan kailangan magkikita tayo kay Lola kay auntie di ba yung parang so everybody knows where they will go so we've got to be forward thinking di naman ako nananakot pero the government will only make plans up to the barangay level but it will not make plans for the family level and I honestly think individuals should make plans at the family level and at the neighborhood level kasi yung tulong sayo in times of crisis ay yung mga kaibigan at yung kapit bahay thank you very much Ted so for our closing and our summary we have Chancellor Menchit Padilla of the University of the Philippines Manila, Chancellor Menchit go ahead makandan happen ko sa inyong lahat so our webinar today was opened by Dr. Ted Herbosa and Dr. Ted gave an overview on the situation in Russia and Ukraine and as this situation in Europe evolves Dr. Ted explains the need to likewise monitor the situation in China, Taiwan and the West Philippine seas Russia said exercise restraint to avoid getting out of control China said not to rush the conclusion Dr. Ted said that with all of the recent events are concerned right now the COVID pandemic recovery might be compromised Our main presenter is team Dr. Tony Lavinha who focused on the implications of the UK crisis and the Philippines the team said that this is the biggest war after World War II and it is the risk of becoming a bigger war Dean Lavinha provided the perspectives and the conflict and I encourage you to watch the replay and understand the impact of economic sanctions on the Philippines and the world another point that you need to further study is the impact of this war on NATO countries Dean Lavinha presented the immediate consequences within the next week or two first we need to evacuate the 300 OFWs in Ukraine second, definitely this will affect job opportunities in Europe third, in the modern world cities will be affected fourth, expect increase in gas prices within the week there will be production prices for flour, bread and thus will increase prices for all of us fifth, this will affect supply the supply chains for the COVID medicines and other things so in other words there will be an overall inflation Dean Lavinha moved on to the medium-term scenarios beyond six months to the next years you express concern on the following issues first, is the possible collapse of global cooperation institutions like the UNWHO with a rush in China partnership but second, climate change action will be a casualty third, trade and tourism in Europe will be affected it cautioned us monitor carefully the effect of the Ukraine prices on China, Taiwan and the West Philippines so in terms of prices response Dean Lavinha emphasized the importance of a needs assessment in terms of diplomacy its cooperation with WHO and the countries alternatives in terms of supplies we must recognize the importance of self-sufficiency and supply side strategies Dean Lavinha said that this new crisis is a test of leadership we must hear strategic decisions for response to this new crisis not only from our current leaders but for our presidential candidates he calls on national unity across all political groups to address this worst-case scenario this happened during World War II and he said why not, we must exercise this again our first reactor is Dr. Daniel Lazing his first comment was on the possible collapse of the institution like the WHO indeed, this war will polarize the countries this will affect the pandemic treaty this COVID pandemic has shown that no country can be self-sufficient hence the pandemic treaty self-sufficiency is not only for vaccines but also applies to food raw materials and devices that may be put on embargo his next reaction was on the role of social media there is excessive information and difficulty of filtering and sometimes the problem is this may affect decision making third comment was related to COVID some countries might want to keep the sequences for strategic advantage for development of vaccines and of course this affects the world he actually commented on the readiness of China should there be economic sanctions we observe China has secured its markets through the Belt and Road initiatives they are ready our second reactor is Dr. Jani Nanyagas he said how does this affect the Philippines Dr. Jani said let us look at two scenarios the most probable scenario is that the 300 OFWs in Ukraine economic security will be a major issue and will affect neighboring countries but he said the most dangerous scenario is the situation of China and Taiwan since we have 250,000 OFWs to protect our health system must be ready for the influx of our OFW health workers and other workers should the war break out he proposed preparation of the whole health sector and plan where casualties will be brought in the eventuality of a war his second major concern is the need for a plan for a CBRN emergency preparedness and response so what is CBRNE? it means chemical, biologic radiologic, nuclear and exclusive defense we have to prepare for all scenarios he said it is a good exercise sure should we be planning for quarantine islands should any of these prices happen to the Philippines? that's a question for all us to think about so in closing let me end with the lessons from the influenza of 1918 which happened right after World War I because of the war there was a rapid spread of diseases because of movement of soldiers and also of people moving outside of war areas these people may be carriers of certain diseases the spread of the disease was aggravated by reduced resistance due to lack of food at gaya na nang sinabi ni historian Dr. Yalogo magkakambal, ansakit at ghera kaya dapat tayo lagi nganda to prepare for any crisis Dean Lavinha said we need a whole of nation approach but for today probably the most feeding closing for today's webinar is a quote from Pope Francis and he said let us pray that's all Dr. Suzie and Baty Dr. Suzie and the pregnant thank you very much Manchit for a very what should I say a very heartfelt closing I think we will get through this we've talked about this in the webinar we've survived COVID we're gonna get through this whatever it is and our purpose is really just to equip you with information so that you are not caught unaware by things that will happen and we have a great panel today okay so next week na ko we've got a very nice topic we always have a nice topic and I'm always excited but this one is we're gonna take up paulit-ulit na COVID kasi marami tayo na hikita na nag-COVID na bakunahan na COVID paulit so COVID-19 na naman repeat COVID-19 and we will also talk about the long term effects of COVID I think we have some data coming from the Philippine General Hospital on this one we're going to have the Department of Neurosciences we're gonna have Dr. Kamilaroa and Dr. Fidel Nemenso Chancellor of UP Dileman who has had COVID, I don't know how many times and Ghapli Gaspi, our director of PGH who also had COVID I don't know how many times so we're going to talk about paulit-ulit na COVID okay over to you Raymond so don't forget on Friday magandang topic thank you Dr. Suzie and thank you to our Chancellor for really heartfelt na po ang ating closing remarks just to put everything into perspective na po na meron po tayong panibagong banta na naman nakailangan bantayan po natin before we conclude our webinar for today just a very very short announcement in preparation for our second year anniversary of the stop COVID-19 webinar series meron po tayong tinatawag na COVID-19 Heroes Memorial call for photos po we want to be able to honor and remember the sacrifices for Filipino Medical Frontliners hindi na po sa Pilipinas but all over the world we hope that we'd be able to get the stories din po and not just the photos kung meron man po kayo lalo na po yung mga nagsakampo sa COVID-19 so please please send them po the graphic po is shown on the screen and that shows the deadline po at saan nyo po siya ipapadala at kung anumampong informasyon ang hinihiling po namin and also we would like to thank the very hardworking team behind the stop COVID-19 webinar series without each and every one of you we will not be able to churn out quality content po gaya po na nasabi po natin hindi lang po ito mag-focus clinical but also yung pung the public health side of all things related to COVID-19 and finally all stop COVID-19 webinars are archived for viewing at the YouTube channel of TV UP if you go to www.youtube.com forward slash TV UPPH you'll be able to see all previous 88 webinars maging 89 na po siya after today's webinar and hopefully we'll see each other again next week so this formally closes our webinar for this week po na next week very very interesting again na topic especially for those na mga nakakovid na sana po ay mas parangin pa po ang dumalo sa ating webinar for next week Friday 12 noon to 2pm it's a date together we can stop COVID-19 deaths so keep safe, keep healthy see you online this time we'll come to pass because this salvation makes the last you carry you to see the break the others pained from my fears the others lost before my tears but right behind the mask I look into myself and ask do I have strength to carry on but God, how long was this gone how to keep me strong I'm here to hold the light I'll keep my word until my head's dying my fears the others lost before my tears but right behind the mask I look into myself and ask do I have strength to carry on but God, I'll leave you here to keep me strong I'll keep my word until my fears pushing on these things through when does the day