Welcome to the Anxious Morning where each weekday morning we take a look at ideas concepts and lessons designed to help you Understand and overcome your anxiety for more information visit us at the anxious morning comm We all want and or need Support people there's no crime in having to lean on other humans sometimes So do not labor under the mistaken idea that you must never ask for help. That is simply not true Asking for help is not avoidance cheating failing or going backwards It's just being human which we are all allowed and even encouraged to be That out of the way, let's talk about how to build a good support person when it comes to anxiety recovery Imagine that we are building an anxiety recovery support robot. What code would we write to program that robot? What would we want to teach it to do so our robot would be as helpful as possible as we go about the business of getting better? Clearly our friends and family members are not robots I mean unless you are a robot yourself in which case a robot family makes perfect sense But here are some lines of code that you can feed your support people to help them help you Consider taking some time to sit with your support people to discuss these statements our lines of code So you can all come to an understanding as to how this should all work to everyone's benefit. I Am in charge of my recovery at all times. You cannot make me recover only I can do that You are not here to make me feel better. I'm learning to do that myself You're not here to do things for me. I need to learn that I am capable of doing them Please do not participate in making excuses for my avoidance and irrational fear I'm already very good at that and trying to break that habit. So do not enable it When I am struggling, please remind me that I am capable and always have been when I am afraid Please remind me that I always wind up okay no matter how I feel When I want to give up, please remind me of why I am traveling this path and doing these difficult things When all I want to talk about is how horrible this is Please remind me of my wins and my progress. I sometimes forget to acknowledge those things and this will help me Sometimes I need a hug and a shoulder to lean and or cry on can you be that for me when I need it? When I feel especially broken or like I just can't do this because nobody understands and nobody is as bad as I am Please remind me that I am not doing this alone Remind me that you are there cheering for me because sometimes I need to hear that Now this is a good start We could probably spend hours coming up with lines of code that we would use to program the ideal support recovery robot There's only so many words in a morning email and I have to head to you another zoom call So let's continue this in the comments Shall we if you're reading this as an email click the comments icon and tell me what lines of code You'd write for your support robot I would love to hear what you have to say and if you're listening to this as a podcast head on over to the anxious morning email if you'd like to participate with a comment of your own see you tomorrow if You're enjoying the anxious morning and you'd like to get a copy of the podcast delivered into your email inbox every morning Visit the anxious morning email and subscribe to the newsletter If you're listening on Apple or iTunes take a second and leave a five-star rating Maybe write a small review it really helps me out and finally if you find my work useful And you'd like to help keep it free of advertising and sponsorships You can see all the ways to support the work at the anxious truth comm slash support. Thanks so much


First of all, VBMP and BWSP, they were very helpful in providing the data and it helped that Indian Institute of Science, Indian Institute of Management, they're all Indian institutes and very well respected. The PIs, my co-PIs are so well respected, they didn't have a problem. The only thing was that despite all these positive things, actually getting the data always took a lot of time and effort. We didn't have much idea of quality control, for example. If there was a GIS or spatial unit generating some data that might not be in sync with the time series or Excel data, so you try to fill in and you don't know really who to talk to, who might know how to verify the data that we've been provided, or even what the units were in some cases. So those are endemic problems, I think. I'm not sure when those will be solved but a lot of the time is spent in trying to get hold of the data and understand what it is actually. Then when it came to the primary data collection, so the survey that was run by Deepak, that survey I think took about a year to finish. It took several months to design and to implement and we're just about getting the results now, so it was a very long drawn out process. And then when it comes to the groundwater monitoring part, our field assistants have shared that it is so difficult to go around the city every month to 150 different locations. They are so efficient that it takes only minutes at each location but they can only do five to seven a day because that takes up about eight or ten hours in traffic and so on. So it's been a very intense effort from both the supply and demand side of our data collection and that I think gives you a good idea of the kinds of challenges we generally face when we're trying to put up this kind of information. So why is data important? If we want to manage a system, you have to understand its components, you have to be able to quantify things. And in the Indian context, it's well known that we don't know much about the demand side, we don't know much about the supply side, especially when it comes to water. It's one of the most difficult things to tackle. So the best way to understand how data can be useful in finding solutions to problems on the one hand and also in planning ahead, I'll give you an example of each. The first example I can think of is from Bangkok. Bangkok is a city about the same size as Bangalore today and before the utility used to supply just groundwater. This utility is called MWA and in the 1950s onwards, groundwater use started increasing and over the next decade or two, groundwater levels started dropping. Now, the interesting thing about Bangkok though is that they had a lot of knowledge and data over several decades about groundwater levels, groundwater quality, what kind of aquifers there were, how many aquifers, seawater intrusion, all kinds of things. Researchers from Thailand as well as outside of Thailand, many countries, they know a lot about the biophysical system of Bangkok. So even from the 70s, they had about 60 monitoring stations and so on. With the help of this data, once they reach this crisis, the water levels are falling to about 40 meters by the 1990s in some areas. There was ground subsidence because the aquifers were compacting from extracting too much water and so the national government came in and they started instituting new groundwater regulations. They started with the help of the data network, monitoring network, they identified critical zones in different parts of the city where they imposed restrictions on groundwater pumping. Over about two decades or so, the MWA stopped supplying groundwater to its customers and they brought in an alternative water source. So that's of course an important part of the story was that if you stop pumping groundwater, then somewhere else they have to supply water. And what you started seeing was they also started imposing groundwater taxes, groundwater use taxes, groundwater conservation charges. And you can see in a 30-year trace of groundwater wells that I've got that in different zones when they implemented these policies, the water levels start bouncing back up, the groundwater levels. It's quite a beautiful graphic to see that you have the timeline of these policies over the past 20 years and then the groundwater levels are actually responding back. So in many parts of the city, groundwater levels have actually recovered after all this time. That's one example I can give you of how data and knowledge can help remedy a situation, improve things, find solutions. And in a planning context, I've got a different example. And this is in the context of the fact that even if you collect a lot of data, you still need an interface, like the science policy interface. You need some sort of institutional interface so that that data and knowledge is actually going to implement policy, is going to help implement sound policy. You still need an institutional structure. So the example I've got is known as the public interest in energy research program called the peer program. And it comes out of California. Now, California has a very vibrant, proactive climate change policy. And for many years they had this peer program. It was funded with a small surcharge on every California residents energy bills. This small surcharge came to about a millions of dollars a year. This funded the research. The research was competitive. You had to apply competitively for these grants every year. And if you got it, you were directed to do research on something like six sectors related to climate change, like agriculture, water supply, infrastructure, etc., etc. This program was a very successful program and all the outputs of it were peer reviewed. You had to be published in top class journals like climatic change and so on. So the scientific rigor was verified and peer reviewed. You couldn't just do anything and get away with it. And then they set up a virtual California Climate Change Center. And it really helped inform California's very advanced climate change policies and still does to this day. It helped set standards for building standards, efficiency standards, renewable energy standards. It helped a lot in actually having standards, mandates, policies, laws being passed. So I gave the example of this peer program. It was this small surcharge on the energy bill. Now, let's think about this. I think that in Bangalore, the number of domestic water connections might be about one million. Let's say you would take. So if you had every connection, just domestic connection, pitching 10 rupees per connection per month, that comes to about 12 crores per year, you would raise in funds. And now if you related to what Dr. Shekhar said would be the cost of an automated monitoring network at the same 150 locations we are doing manual sampling of groundwater levels. He had estimated 20 million a year, which is about 2 crores a year. So you can see that even this little surcharge on the water bill could easily fund an automated monitoring network. So you now start seeing the possibilities, right? And if you take it further, let's say this is a program that goes on year after year, right? So the first year could be focusing on monitoring, correct? Second year could be a program that is maybe voluntary based, where people want to exchange their inefficient old Borewell pumps with new efficient pumps. You'll save on energy costs, you'll save on energy, you'll save on emissions. Maybe that could be funded through some carbon program, you know? And the possibilities are really right there if you have some kind of tight linkage like this and this could be funded because Bangalore is a large city of 10 million or so. So we should be able to generate funds. It's a Silicon Valley in all of India. We should be able to easily generate the funds. I don't think that it would be difficult. We could really try to see how we could emulate programs like PURE in India. So the lessons learned from this exercise is that without going for an automated network, without having our own captive Borewells drilled by under the project as a piezometer, we managed to show that we could get a lot of information about groundwater from existing Borewell networks in a city and which were not under use. Plus also use a human engineered way of monitoring and through the lesson we know that it's difficult but it's possible. So coming forward from this we need to, going forward, we should keep some amount of manual monitoring and some amount of automated monitoring. The amount of monitoring which we achieved in this project appeared to be good enough at a density of one per five square kilometer seems to be a good network in able to understand that we are able to capture the variabilities. The temporal frequency is something because we are doing humanly monitored. We were only able to do once in a month. It was not viable to do even in thought in our sense. We should do much finer sampling which would require much more number of people and much more travel in the city. It's not about the man hours involved or the man power involved. It's about the travel time taken to visit these spots and come back which is more all to us. I think at some point difficult places can be put up with automated networks and some can be manually managed so that we have a blend of these two creating a robustness in the network. And we are initiating to do this through the future projects. In the future projects we are looking for continuing this saga by blending them with additional automated networks. We can continue what we are doing especially in areas which are hot spots of the city or to re-investigate something which we have missed out in the current investigation. So there are many host of other things which we have not investigated in this two-year period. That can become a new mandate of investigation or new hypothesis to be investigated which can be improved through the smart network. Among the lessons learned many cities should have this kind of a network. We just started with the Bangalore as an example. The usefulness of this kind of information about groundwater could be brought into some kind of a participatory management in other cities. So that way they will become more robust than institutionalized or a project-based monitoring networks. If that is able to be achieved in many cities then there is a huge opportunity of creating a crowdsourced data at a high granularity which can be used for analyzing the systems. The groundwater throws up a lot of information about the state and health of water within a city as a resource. We have spent some time talking about what Bangalore looks like and the intimate connection between human systems and the background biophysical system. I now want to turn to questions institutional, questions policy and questions governance. So what do we do with this? There are multiple ways to address this question. Often times I get asked after I paint this reasonably bleak picture of where Bangalore is headed in terms of how it uses water, so what? My usual response is even while I am not optimistic that the city can solve its problems, I remain very hopeful. Even without being hopeful I could not be doing this day in and day out. I hope that optimism are two very very different things. One can remain hopeful without being optimistic. Can some of that hope actually turn into optimism? Yes. I mean if we are actually able to get our institutions to think very differently from how we currently think through the water conundrum, there is actually hope when we can get a handle on our water conundrum. I and all my collaborators are very grateful to BWSSB or the public utility. Their contribution to our project has been immense. We could not have possibly done any of what we have done without BWSSB helping us with all forms of things and certainly with data. Let us ask a few institutional questions. Our public utility, the BWSSB, which is responsible for 1400 million liters a day of surface water coming into the city, what is the BWSSB thinking in terms of groundwater dynamics? Let me ask a very direct question. How many groundwater hydrologists does the public utility employ? The answer to that question is a zero, ZDRO zero. I mean some of these things have to change. I mean you need a mindset change that moves away from looking at water as an engineering technocratic problem to one that even in hydrological terms as a complex problem, this is not only merely an engineering problem. So from an engineering problem you have to recognize that this is actually a complex hydrology problem. From that point on you have to recognize that this is not only a hydrology problem, but actually a social hydrology problem. So once you are able to make these leaps in your imagination, then you have a realistic chance of grappling with the water conundrum. I mean thus far I have done nothing in terms of talking about what happens on the wastewater side. That is an important part of the problem. I mean scientists at Atree, I mentioned collaborating institution. I mean Atree scientists have been instrumental in helping us actually characterize this problem. For a number of years they have been working on understanding wastewater flows. I mean what is actually happening to water that is used, industrial effluents in our waste streams so on and so forth. Eventually we do need to take this problem of wastewater head on. One of the modules actually tried to understand people's attitude to be open to using wastewater. What we found was actually very revealing. I mean despite the obvious crisis that Bangalore faces with its water, less than a fourth of Bangalore's households are willing to consider using recycled water for any use at all, even non-potable uses. I mean this obviously has its roots in our social conditioning. But the point is that questions of sociology, questions of economics, questions of politics are fundamental to even understanding hydrology. I mean we need to internalize this. And there is no one question more important than asking simply what is water? Is it a private good or is it a shared commons? I mean today we absolutely treat water as a private good. And that's a fundamental category error. I mean water isn't a private commodity. I mean water is a shared commons. And once you start understanding water as a commons and understand that there are social, political, economic drivers of what we do hydrologically with this commons, then I think you have started to put yourself on a path to be able to understand the conundrum. And then you might, one hopes, that you might actually be able to grapple with it and also come up with interesting solutions that are equitable, sustainable and efficient. Well, you've been working for five years collecting a lot of data. So what does this all mean? As an academic I obviously love data. I mean data is crucially important. We understand very little about what's happening to our groundwater aquifers. So the, I mean I actually stick my neck out and describe it as a valiant effort led by Shaker and Vishal to try and get a preliminary sort of understanding of changing groundwater levels in the city. That's a part that needs to be institutionalized. I mean data there is clearly important. I mean unless we are able to continuously be aware of what's happening to water beneath us, I mean I don't see how we are going to be able to institutionally act. I mean when data is certainly knowledge, data is not wisdom. I mean let me illustrate this with a parable. Assume you're jumping out of an airplane. It is fantastic to be able to have the best altimeter available around. But the one thing that you really do want to have, you can do without an altimeter, but one thing that you really need to have is your parachute. So the argument that this project has been making is there are important gaps in terms of altimeters, but the real gaping hole is we don't have enough parachutes. So parachutes are basically in terms of what we've been talking, institutional changes, lasting institutional changes, lasting governance changes. I mean to basically fundamentally look at waters as a shared common. And then peel through layers of what it means to look at waters as common. Obviously there are important parts of the altimeter part of the puzzle that needs to fall in place, but I think that's easier. Altimeters are easier to conjure up than parachutes. So one of the things that I hope all of us will do on the project team is to try and look at how we might be able to come up with parachutes. We have some altimeter data now. Can we also use that to fashion sustainable parachutes?


What's going on guys welcome back to the channel critical overload here to talk about a few different horror topics in this video here today We'll be talking about the scream 3 assembly cut that has arrived online We'll be talking about the 13 ghost TV series and sharing some other Plans for this show that has yet to be greenlit But it's in development and the only thing that really has it on pause is that Sony pictures television hasn't picked it up And of course the ongoing strikes I'll share some more details on what we could expect to have from that show and I'll lastly talk about the Exorcist believer and the plot leak that is out there and how Credible this is now if you don't want to know any spoilers about the exorcist believer Please stop watching this video. Although I will say I am not going to outwardly spoil what is in this plot description I am just letting you guys know it is out there for you to discover it. So diving into The first topic at hand the screen 3 assembly cut The screen 3 assembly cut arrived online viewer non had a tent had intended for it to drop today anyway But I saw over on their Twitter many of you might have known this if you're listening that viewer non's Twitter of these clips They had shared they started being Striped and receiving those notices the Twitter usually sends out if you have copyright copyrighted content that the Content creator or that that the rights holder no longer wants you sharing without their consent So then it gets struck him down those clips from the assembly cut were taken away So I had the assembly cut sent to me earlier this morning I did not share it online anywhere because I would told I was told that it would arrive online at some point later today And of course it did shout out to scream trilogy who ended up sharing the cut online for all of you to enjoy I will say this about my thoughts on it. I did enjoy hearing the alterations in the score I loved the certain bits of dialogue differences in the opening with cotton weary There's like a moment where he's making comments about phone sex saying hey, well, and we're gonna have phone sex I should at least know your name, you know when he's talking up to the girl that he shouldn't be talking to anyway because he has a girlfriend and then there's an entire Section of the finale after they have killed Roman that is a little different in terms of sent me walking into her house and Before she takes one final look back at the door We hear gale say come on Sid like she's calling for Sid to come watch the movie And then she takes one last look back at the door and then the film just Ends I think that's how it went and then of course the moment where Ghostface is in their layer working on the voice changer that Roman uses We get to hear him saying what's your favorite scare movie and what I thought sounded like Sydney's voice there's a moment where Neil Prescott and Sydney have a Heart-to-heart where I think he's hugging her according to what I saw over on Twitter I was really skimming through it But I was loving some of the differences I saw if you guys want to go ahead and check out the screen three assembly cut Go ahead and search for it on Twitter I will not be sharing a direct link to it here in my descriptions at all But it is out there for you guys to enjoy now diving into 13 ghosts this series now a pitch deck more of the pitch deck from The crew from the people that have been pitching this project to Sony Pictures Television more images of the pitch deck have surfaced online courtesy of Joe blow calm so and it also outlines what we could get in regards to a possible Cyrus backstory if this TV show is to ever receive the green light So here's the storyboard are on your screen It says a parallel narrative within the series explores Cyrus's character through every stage of his life and the life events That transpire over those stages that lead him to the discovery of the Dark Zodiac and eventually designing and building his version of the best Basilius machine which we know is the house in the remake from 2001 We are giving background into the impetus behind his use of the machine to open a portal to the afterlife It's an epic scope of a story spanning generations with love and loss along the way now I will say this does make me excited because I recall when Cyrus died in the newspaper newspaper Clippings from as many times as I've seen it they referred to him as an event an adventurer So getting to see this adventurer in action over the span of this 13 episode series that they're pitching would be quite interesting And I love how there's been this constant debate about how much material within that remake is not being Explored correctly because this should have been a TV show and now we have a very big possibility for this to come to fruition All we need is for these strikes to cease and we need Sony Pictures Television to actually get on board with it So if you want them to do all that please keep on letting Sony Pictures Television know that you want to see this series if you want to Of course, if you don't want to then so be it and you can keep on enjoying that 2001 remake But I think it would be a very nice touch to the series to dive into the backstory of this adventurer that we know Cyrus was because he was really just an enigma in a lot of ways in that remake which is fine But exploring that enigma in this capacity wouldn't be to earth shattering It wouldn't make me view the character any differently other than just Enlightening me in terms of where he stands and what his mindset is going into creating this machine And what his motivations are underneath it all because we know he squandered the family fortune So maybe that could factor in to the 13 ghost TV series as well Now diving into the exorcist believer a Reaction and plot leak for the exorcist believer has surfaced online Some have speculated that perhaps this is someone who took it upon themselves to collect the spoilers and share them But I'm inclined to believe that this is from someone who was present at the test screens because I sent it to my test Screening sources and they've doubled down on how true this leak is and it matches What I've known and what I've been trying to discuss without flat out spoiling the film in regards to how poorly handled Chris McNeil is in this film.  This person also reconfirms Reagan's cameo They're confirming the opening sequence and how we how we lose the the I believe their name is the fieldings the fieldings mother wife since the wife to Victor anyway mother to the other girl not Catherine I can't remember the other girls name. So Reagan's cameo is mentioned in this plot leak They go over the opening the fate of the girls is mentioned in this plot leak But I will say me and my sources are an agreement that some of these leaks could be how the movie has changed over time since these Multiple test screens that have occurred because some of the details are not what I was originally told Still though a bulk of this matches my notes This person is still citing that the pacing is a problem that the film seems to handle the disappearance of the girls quite well And it keeps it mysterious, but there's no outlandish demonic demon dialogue that even comes close to rivaling that original the finale is apparently Underwhelming Chris and Reagan are wasted legacy character appearances, etc So it doesn't again sound like it's going to be the worst thing ever But it doesn't seem like this is an appropriate legacy sequel to the exorcist that a lot of die-hard fans Who care and pay attention to attention to detail are going to be too thrilled about and of course There are some jabs at the patriarchy I'm not gonna say how but in context of how it is here It seems a little bit ridiculous because it's cited in a way that tries to rationalize Chris's lack of involvement in certain aspects of that first movie and it's a little ridiculous I'm all about tearing the patriarchy down in correct ways, but this ain't one of them chief Let me know what y'all think about all of this down in the comment section below if you haven't already of course make sure you subscribe turn on Post notification in the video in the description. I'll have links to my social media accounts I'm on Facebook to an Instagram you can message me there, of course There's any movies news or reviews let me cover in the future And if you would like to read the plot leak for the exorcist believer Yes, I'll leave a link to it in the description and with all that in mind guys. I will see you in the next video


Good morning folks. Steve Rhodes coming to you live from the shores of sunny Delray Beach, Florida. This year 11 am update. We've got a sea of well mostly green out there. You've got the Dow up 79 points. S&P's up 16 NASDAQ 100 156. Russell is flat. Some eyes up 44 trainees up three buckaroos. Gold is up 1% at some move of $18 to the downside two and seven tenths for silver 63 pennies. Natural gas off 8 cents and 30 treasure up 1.9 ticks trade out of 113 24. Let's figure out what all that means by looking at that nine panel market update chart would be going to the ES many. What do we know about it? Well, it's trading above the top of its daily profile, likely going to target that descending trend line as well as its TD 9 cal breakdown resistance level. That's up at 44 30 50. It'll certainly be able to make that move as long as that spot ball to next index continues to trade lower. It's very likely targeting the 19 27. I'm sorry 1428 level. That's a lower Bulbinger band. We take a look at the end queue. It is blasting through all kinds of resistance out there, at least descending trend line resistance. And now what it's going to contend with is its TD 9 count. No, it's already done that. It's just going to take a it's going back to it's a swing point from back here on October the 12th. So we'll take a look at that during the traders edge show that level. By the way, it's 15 468 75. You close above that. You're likely headed to 15 7 19. We take a look at the US dollar index. It is attempting to get back inside a new profile that is trying to form. We'll get a confirmation of this profile at the end of the day. Right now, the bottom of that profiles at 105 37 were traded 105 44. If price gets back inside that profile, increase the odds of the US dollar index running up towards the 106 29 106 75 area. Gold is trading below the bottom of its daily profile. That's a 1975 60. You want to watch that a day's end. If you close below that odds favor a further move lower. The case of silver still just consolidating with inside his profiles. That's between 22 53 at the support level of 23 30 at resistance. We take a look at lights. We crude it is testing the area where it broke out from. That's at 78 51. If price closed below that, well, we're likely gonna get an A to B equal CD to the downside. Natural gas has tested its one to one price projection level. That's at the three dollar and 10 cent area. What price now needs a bullish reversal candidate confirm a by the D point pattern. The case of the 30 year treasury having a nice move. And in fact, if you get close today above the level of 113 19 were 1323. That'll suggest a further move higher is that would be that would show us a price close above resistance. That was the top of that daily profile. Folks, they do for the trader's end show. But if I have to start here Tuesday, please have a terrific one. Thanks much for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you again soon. Take care now.


Welcome back to the Trade Hacker Mindset. In this episode, we are going to discuss how to embrace your weakness. Trading the markets can be difficult to master and seemingly just out of reach. Professional traders have a secret.  It requires the Trade Hacker Mindset. All right, so let's jump into our discussion of how to embrace your weakness. If you've been trading for any period of time, you know that trading is obviously a challenge. And if you're listening to this podcast, you understand that part of the challenge is between your ears.  So this whole notion of change, it's both a challenge and a trap. The challenge is that if we aspire to become a consistently profitable trader, it creates this ability for us to grow into something other than who we are. But it can also be a trap because it creates kind of a self-division within our mind. When we entertain the notion of change, we're basically dividing ourselves. We have the qualities that we like and we have the qualities that we don't like. Whether you do it consciously or subconsciously, you're basically telling yourself, here's what your strengths are and here's what your weaknesses are. Here's what you're good at. Here's what you're bad at. Here's what's acceptable and here's what's unacceptable. And once we make this division in our mind, it's only natural to embrace the good and avoid the bad. We simply dismiss our shortcomings as mistakes or bad luck or exceptions or some other type of excuse. And this is a defense mechanism that we all have that help us keep a better image of ourselves and keep those negative thoughts outside of our conscious awareness. So here's a personal example that I'll share with you just from a couple weeks ago. So it's still fairly fresh in my mind. And it's the way that I poorly managed one of my positions. And this is in our day trading live stream room. And I managed a trade to a point where the loss on the trade was larger than I wanted to be. So it exceeded my loss limit on this particular trade and it left me red for the day. Now, I had been on a nice winning streak. I think I had like eight green days in a row and this one turned into a red day for me. Now, I still finished slightly green on the week. So there's two ways I could look at this. I could say, you know what, I'm going to get that negativity of that red day out of my mind. I'm not going to focus on that. I'm only going to focus on the fact that I finished green for the week. And if I did that, which, you know, we talk about positive mindset, we talk about having a positive attitude while you're trading. And that's kind of what you're doing there. You're pushing the negative. You're pushing the bad day to the side. You're focusing on the positive, which was that we finished green for the week. And by doing that pretty soon, you're just going to forget about that loss. And so there is some value to that. Here's the problem. When you completely ignore your losses or you completely ignore the fact that you mismanaged a position, you don't necessarily learn from it. So what's going to happen next time? Next time this frustration hits or next time I mismanaged a position, it's simply going to be I'm going to repeat my earlier behavior and maybe even lose more money. Okay. And then it can kind of spiral out of control and you, you might have to take a break from the markets and come back with a positive mindset. But the reality is that you kind of, you really just return to denial. And once again, you remove those losses from your mind and eventually those shortcomings, eventually those issues catch up with you and you eventually have to face them head on. So if you only focus on positive thoughts, then you don't have to think about what you've done wrong, which basically means we don't have to be in contact with the part of ourselves that we don't like. It's kind of like the old adage of cleaning your house, right? If you just keep sweeping it under the rug, eventually that rug gets full and there's a big bulge of dirt under the rug in your house, right? So that's what happens if you don't really clean it out, if you don't really face your issues, your negative, poor position management, if you don't face it head on, eventually it's going to come back to bite you.  Now, before I ever had kids, I always thought I would absolutely hate that.  Their mom's going to do it all the time. I just, I don't want to have anything to do with it, right? But the reality is, and maybe some of you can relate to this, maybe some of you can't, but I actually got to where, when I was my own kid and I had to change diapers, I actually didn't mind it at all. In fact, it almost becomes kind of a bonding moment between you and your child.  And so this is how you have to look at your own weaknesses.    And so if you love yourself, you have to deal with that by yourself. You have to deal with that internally. You have to face that head on. You have to treat these shortcomings as opportunities. These are opportunities to grow. These are opportunities for development. These are opportunities for you to become a better person, or in this case, a better trader. So if you've had a trade that you lost money on recently, or you had a day that you lost money, or a week that you lost money, consider embracing your flaws. Consider embracing this weakness. Every losing trade is there to teach you something. So here's what I want you to do. There's a little exercise that I'm going to give you here. A little bit of homework. All right, so at the close of today's trading, okay, start it today. Create a chart. Just write a chart on a piece of paper, or on a spreadsheet, however you want to do it. Create a chart with three columns. The first column is a description of the losing trade that you made. The second column will be what you can learn from the losing trade. And the third column will be how you will improve your trading the next day, based on what you learned. Okay, so let me repeat that. The first column is a description of the losing trade you made. The second column will be what you can learn from the losing trade. And the third column will be how you will improve your trading the next day, based on what you learned. So an example might be what you learned from the losing trade might be an insight into what the market did. Maybe it was a choppy or range bound day when you assumed that it was a trending day. Or what you learned from the losing trade might be something about yourself. Maybe it's that you should have cut your loss quicker, or you should have managed the risk more effectively. Whatever it is, whatever it is that you learned from that losing trade, it's never a total loss as long as you embrace it and learn from it.   Is there any kind of outside distracting factors, any projects that I'm working on for work, for navigation trading, or any, you know, distractions? How would, you know, have I gotten in a recent argument at home? Is something with my kids bothering me? All these things I write out each morning. And it's not going to ensure or guarantee that you won't have losses, but it will make you more self-aware. And now I can find myself being self-aware during the trading day of if I'm making a decision that I shouldn't be making, I instantly become aware of it most of the time. Not a hundred percent. Doesn't, it's not, it's not perfect. We're so humans, but it helps you become more self-aware and help you to self-correct in the middle of it. And doing this exercise does the same thing. You're taking a loss, you're taking it head on, you're confronting yourself, and you're learning from those mistakes. The goal of every trader is to become consistently profitable, okay? But that doesn't mean that your account won't have some ups and downs. It's your account, the red marks and all. You have to embrace them. You have to make yourself stronger. And by, by reaching out to your flaws, by embracing your weaknesses, this will help you become the trader that you're capable of being. I hope this episode was helpful. If you want to become a part of a community of like-minded traders, just go to community.navigationtrading.com. It's free to join. We call it the trade hacker community. We've got hundreds of traders interacting with each other on a daily basis, not just about the mindset stuff, but also sharing trade ideas with the sole purpose of helping each other become better traders. We look forward to seeing you on the inside and we'll see you in the next episode.


Ukrainian Defence Forces advance 1.5 km on Militopol Front. On the Militopol Front, Ukrainian troops have already advanced 1.5 km towards the Russian Army as a result of systemic pressure. Valery Shershen, spokesperson for the Joint Press Centre for the Tavriya Front Defence Forces reported it. According to the spokesman, the military continues to destroy the enemy while advancing forward. Due to systemic pressure, the Defence Forces on the Tavriya Front are successful and have advanced 1.5 km deep into the enemy lines. That is the offensive actions of the Tavriya Group on the Militopol Front are successful, he said. Shershen noted that currently, Ukrainian troops secure their positions at the borders reached. According to him, there is an ongoing aerial reconnaissance of the area. Mandatory mine clearance, the Defence Forces are shelling identified enemy targets and carrying out counter-battery countermeasures. He emphasised that moving forward, the soldiers of the Tavriya Front confidently continue to destroy Russians and level the front. Shershen also explained that the news about the liberation of Rivne Hill was delayed for certain tactical reasons. In general, as a result of concerted actions and a clear implementation of the plan, the strike units of the Defence Forces in Tavriya direction took control of the settlement on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizia regions, exactly where the Ukrainian military conducts counter-offensive operations in the Burdiansk direction.


Apart from historical or realized rate of return, aren't on a particular investment in the past? A particular investor while evaluating a future investment may also expect a certain rate of return on that particular investment in the days to come. So what are the expected rates of returns? Basically the expected rate of return is the rate that is expected by an investor in the future on a particular set of investments or any individual investment. In fact this is expectation is not risk free or free from risk that means there is an element of uncertainty. When the returns expected on a particular investment then how to determine the certainty level of returns on that particular investment for that purpose we analyze this certainty by estimating the possibility of returns on the particular investment. To determine this possibility of the returns we assign probability values to all the possible returns of the particular investment. These probability values range from 0 to 1. Probability value of 0 means there is no return in the future on the investment and probability value of 1 to a particular return means that particular return is certain to happen in the future. When we have a certainty about returns on a particular investment this means that that is a perfect certainty and that perfect certainty allows only one possible return. This means let's say that we have assumed that there is a 100% chance that a particular investment will earn a rate of interest or return of 5%. So that certainty of 5% rate of return is a perfect certainty. Investment with perfect certainty are generally considered as a risk free investment as this is a case of the government securities because there is no chance of default by the government. So every investment security issued by a government authority may be termed as a risk free investment. And for perfect certainty only one value exists for the probability multiplied for the return and that probability is equal to 100 because we are 100% sure that return is certain. This most likely estimate is in fact referred to as a point estimate. In the figure you can see that at the 5% rate of return we have the probability of 1. This means we are 100% sure that this particular investment will earn a rate of return of 5%. We have another scenario and that is the alternative scenario where an investment could have several different rates of return depending on the different possible economic conditions. For that purpose we assign the probability to individual condition and accordingly we assign a rate of return to that probability. Then we multiply individual probability to the individual rate of that condition and the sum of these probability returns is termed as the expected rate of return. In the example we have three scenarios. The weak economy means there is no inflation for that purpose. The probability is 15% or 0.15 the rate of return for that 15% chance is the 20%. Then we have another condition the weak economy there is above average inflation rate is in existence. For that condition we have probability of again 15% then we have third condition means there is no major change in the economy and we assign probability of 0.7 or 70%. Now when we multiply individual probability with the individual rate of return and sum up these probability returns the expected value is 0.07 or the 7%. This is basically the weighted rate of return. If we plot these probabilities and rate of returns on a figure we see that for each probability we have a given rate of return and then we plot this is a probability curve. This means that as we have more of the probabilities then we will be having lesser uncertainty of the expected returns. This means more probability lesser returns that would make the investment more riskier. Similarly we have a worst scenario in which an investment with 10 possible outcomes ranging from 0.40 to 0.50 with the same probability for each rate of returns. And to determine the expected rate of return on this situation we have the expected rate of return of 5%. This 5% means using 10 possible outcomes that the investor is highly uncertain about the actual rate of return. In fact the investment is very much riskier owing to the higher uncertainty as we have 10 possibilities. So 10 possibilities are making this investment more riskier. Now what is risk version? We know that any investor may face a choice between a riskier investment and a certain or risk-free investment. So there are two cases where one investment is much riskier and the other is the risk-free investment and the investor has to choose any investment between the two. The investor would certainly go for the risk-free investment or the alternative case. This means that the investor is a risk-averse investor. This means that if anything else is the same the investor will select the investment that offers higher rate of return with a given level of riskiness. This means if this is the scenario then this assumption says that most of the investors in the market are the risk-averse investors that they want to maximize their rate of return at the lowest level of riskiness. This another means that for a certain level of risk the investor go for an investment that is offering to him the higher amount of return.