Let's um, let's let's have you explain this so we have a living mirror theory of consciousness we have a on Something that can absolutely not be decoupled. We the way that the the the way that the Individual consciousness the private consciousness the organism consciousness the way that that becomes Exists is literally through the fact that it must understand its world It must understand its environment and it has it has an ongoing feedback loop where it's air food water Fitness functions always fitness functions reproduction Ideas ideas ideas. What are the ideas at the top of the fitness landscape? How can I consume those ideas to make me as as smart as possible? So I could etc. So is this kind of your general reasoning over those billions of years and how that is slowly what had been happening? Yeah, I mean that that's an excellent description of it and but what I would say is that you're right that it can't be decoupled so The moment that life comes into existence. There's full-blown consciousness there's full-blown awareness of an environment and it wouldn't be as Complex as ours, you know, if you don't have a retina made up of loads of cells and all this other complexity You're the contents are not going to be as complex as ours But the fact of experience is is the fact of experience and to me this is so there's no Change in consciousness over the course of evolution if you could trade if you could have your atoms rearranged into a single celled organism You would be experiencing the world as vividly as you are now, but it'd be a very different experience, but that's still be An experience of that and I think something that's So in this picture because consciousness is this kind of absolute pristine perfect kind of space in which all experiences arise it Even though it seems to be separated, you know, there are these different islands of consciousness right now There's there's at least one over here and there's there's one where you are the character of consciousness itself is the same It can only ever be the same So it's like if you imagine, you know as as these creatures engaging in survival dynamics We become very concerned with our separation I become very concerned to differentiate myself from you and you know in order to survive And so the separation becomes the really important thing But if you try and kind of zoom out and look objectively You can kind of imagine if we're all like soap bubbles like we're made out of of the same liquid The dynamics of evolution and survival would make us obsessed with our separation But we're all made of the same liquid. This consciousness is the same consciousness. It's a feature of the universe It's not my it's not James's consciousness The concept of James in my head does not possess consciousness The organism doesn't even possess consciousness because it's arising through the interaction with the environment So it's more like you have a single universe with a sprinkling of islands of consciousness It's like it's like a bunch of eyes opening in one in one organism You know think of the universe as this organism where each of us is like an eye Opening in it and in that way you can see why in this picture consciousness is still this unified thing and you can still You can you can feel yourself to be identified with that rather than your own your own personal consciousness And if you imagine once you have that kind of experience of realizing that You know, this is usually described as the self being an illusion in spiritual circles when you when you realize that and you recognize This character of consciousness Then the moment you die Another eye will open in the universe somewhere right and and in parallel there are now these multiple eyes opening and when you identify With with that process then you're okay. I really am that ground of being I really am they that that Just the unfolding of the world and and these these eyes opening in it Which I think when I read texts like the Vedas and and the Dow and the things like this I To me it fits with my the world view. I'm describing I guess there are some that are quite explicit about kind of mind only only consciousness existing But to me I I get the feeling that these that the authors of these texts were seeing the same world view where a rock Doesn't have to be conscious the big bang didn't have to be conscious if they're aware of the big bang But it describes these these principles, you know, even reincarnation, right? If you take the Buddhist idea of reincarnation with the idea, you know The but the central one of the central doctrines of Buddhism is that the self is an illusion So I don't think you can think of it as James is reincarnated But when you have this recognition of the selflessness of consciousness, then it's like well, what's really happening is You know to use Rupert Spira's term of the screen of perception or of consciousness It's like there's this movie of James happening and then there might be a movie of a frog happening in parallel and then After I die as well and then a plant and the screen is always the same I absolutely agree with that that the character of consciousness is identical and I think to really grasp You know the pace of consciousness in nature You really need to be need to be familiar with that and that's why you know You can see it as this binary event that as soon as you have these enclosed living systems You have consciousness instead of a lot of scientific thinking gets kind of confused with Wakefulness and sleeping and like and then things of levels of consciousness and and that's what people start to think Well, maybe it gradually evolved but then the philosophers are like no There's there's no way it could have gradually evolved that that can't possibly have happened and yeah So I think I think this the kind of spiritual perspective is actually really crucial in understanding the place of the scientific picture of where consciousness fits in nature Wow, okay, so There's there's a there's a coexistence that it's always so important like sure I've been to talked about this so much just the utter refusal to cut life in two And to divide it in two and that if you always keep it at that one In no matter how you perceive always at the one it'll always help and especially in this sense like I think that the idea of an evolution Just exists. It just plainly is true But also at the same time again Simultaneity being key where it's like obviously we didn't have A way to structure meaning we couldn't structure order out of the chaos as well as we do now That's just fact. We just didn't have that ability to do it And now we're structuring order significantly more out of the chaos. Okay, so there's that So there has been some sort of an evolution of this neg this neg entropy and now we have this and it's excellent Okay, great. So there's that it's like the whirlpool has had is you know this the the eternal spiral But the you know, we're here But then at the same time is that we're holding that perspective At the same time as we're holding the infinite screen of consciousness and that That itself is never changing Parmenidus and Heraclitus really had from what I understand this first like 2,500 years ago the first realization of both of those things Coexisting at the same time and that that eternal becoming and the eternal being At the same time and like if you never divide in two then you get to that. Yeah Yeah, and that's exactly so the way I would say in my picture of the world is that In order to be an island of consciousness in order to have this kind of You know this perfect peaceful Perch of awareness from which you can just kind of sit and observe the world You know in the kind of in the best kind of meditative states, you know if you can achieve that Where there is this this kind of Yeah, it's pristine peaceful consciousness in order to have that Privilege of being able to look out of the world and have the lights turn on you need to struggle You need to struggle to keep yourself together. Do you there needs to be this this? Controlling and trying to make order And it's kind of like that's just the price of of admission like that's that's the bind we find ourselves in And it's better to kind of come to terms with that sooner rather later And it's also why I actually don't why I don't tend to think about there being some kind of consciousness outside of Outside of this process because if there was not to be too dark But there would be no point in me continuing to live if I could Live not as an organism that didn't have to feel pain and didn't have to feel hunger and all this stuff And I could still be conscious and at that I could be part of an infinite blissful kind of unified consciousness Then that seems better like I don't this seems to be a mistake this this evolution thing this life thing It seems like a silly Like you know, we're going to return to the one and then be like why did we do that stupid game that that was that game What was sucked it just introduced suffering Whereas in my picture of the world, it's like, yeah, this this this funny situation We find ourselves in that it's an amazing privilege to be alive, but it's not free. It's not trivial It's a it's a truly kind of interesting place to find ourselves in I think


hey guys hope you're all doing great welcome back on my channel today I'm gonna speak about the 2022 Formula 1 season just over obviously some very positive some more difficult time for others let's say always let's start with Max Verstappen 15 wins out of 20 two races absolutely incredible stats that's the most wins over one season I used to be 13 no it's 15 we're a great fight for p2 in the driver championship until the last race where Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez got to the last race with 290 points each and it was the one that was going to finish in front of the other that was going to be a vice world champion that lasted until the last red lap of the race which was awesome to see then we had Mercedes okay so Mercedes came as team world champion they had lost the year before for different reason two red below Max Verstappen in the drivers championship but Mercedes came and straight away that the car very different from the others a car that didn't work that well especially the beginning it's actually the first time for me to one since Lewis Hamilton is in Formula 1 they hasn't won a race in a year which is an amazing I mean which is an amazing is that he won a race every single year it was in Formula 1 up to that date so Mercedes really struggled early in the season especially with the bouncing the car or pulpasing but bouncing is easier to pronounce and then from Azerbaijan from June on was they're starting building back up they didn't get quite to the level they wanted to apart from Brazil where they definitely had the fastest car and George Russell got his first win in Formula 1 which I was very happy with but they got better and better and better through the season talking of that we're having for next year for 2023 Mercedes should be at the front with Ferrari and Red Bull that's what I'm hoping I just want to see that every weekend we get a nice fight between those three big teams and see who can win the championship talking of Ferrari probably the most prepared team going into the season because they gave up in 2021 early on the development of their cars focused on 2022 just like Haas did same ID and they started this season very well real able fast so the clerk definitely of the first three races took a huge advantage for me it was going to be world champion I think for most of the people he was going to be world champion but then things starting going going badly so Red Bull Red Bull that are reliability issue came back and they also had a fast car they put some pressure on Ferrari and Ferrari made too many mistakes you know I love Ferrari it's that iconic brand but pit stop and strategy weren't always on top I think Charles was trying to play the catch-up game in the championship and he made a couple of mistake one in Imola one in France just trying to get back to to Max Verstappen it's always hard when you fall behind and you have to to catch back because you try to go 105% and that doesn't always work Ferrari took him for very big changes Maria Binotto is leaving the team so who is gonna be the next team manager of the team that's a good question there's few names out there think we just wait and see but definitely a big news I think Mattia did a pretty good job I think the car was fast throughout all the season yes they made mistakes on the strategy on the pit but that's that's not the hardest part to correct that 12th pole position most pole position of everyone so they're the fast car it's just don't convert that into Sunday Carlos Sainz pretty good season 2 at some weird at some pole position made early in the season quite a bit of mistakes and lap 1 and Sponnie Imola and I can't remember maybe contact another time so fall a little bit behind on the driver championship but at a good season I think Carlos Sainz for me he's got a very good understanding of the race he sees the old picture and manages to drive it that way which is one of his strengths so definitely that was that was a good season from him having next year Ferrari is still gonna be strong I think as I mentioned Red Bull is still gonna be strong they did an incredible season I should have started with Red Bull but anyway that was so good we talked about him so much that they just they were kind of their own own league this year and that's a very good strong baseline for them next year so next year Red Bull is gonna be strong Ferrari is gonna be strong Mercedes I hope it's gonna be strong just behind them was Alpine Alpine started the season pretty well you know they've been they've been around all season long few reliability issues especially on Fernando Alonso's car but also some incredible performance from Fernando I remember qualifying in Canada I thought he was going to be on pole every time it was wet Fernando was was up there I was pushing the limit and Esteban did really well too in Saudi he actually started one of the race after a red flag on pole from all over the world was happening in the front so Alpine has been very strong they did manage to beat McLean well Alpine is McLean at a very very slow start and then they did catch up quite a lot and then Alpine and a couple of really good races especially in Brazil where they score a lot of points on that kind of saved them for force in the in the Constructed Championship. McLean completely off in Bahrain absolutely incredible to see a far behind the one Bahrain and how much they catch up from there. As Mercedes I think McLean did a really good job at catching up through the season and again I think midfield next year is gonna be very tight no Fernando Alonso going to Aston Martin I think it's gonna bring a lot of knowledge so midfield it's gonna be Alpine McLean Aston Martin let's see what Alphatori Alfa Romeo has and William can do Haas started really well and then they went down obviously a highlight of the season for Haas I mean these three highlights for me this Bahrain to come back for Kevin Magnuson P5 Saudi Arabia when Kevin was fighting with Lewis Hamilton and overtaking him for quite a lot of the race and obviously the big one the pole position in Sao Paulo which was a bit of a surprise but hey you have to use the conditions where they're coming to your advantage so Haas started well didn't finish that well but hopefully they can catch up Alphatori I think they had a difficult car all year long they've lost Pierre Gasly is going to Alpine which was kind of the leader so now it's up to Yuki Tsunoda to become the leader next Nick De Vries next year. Aston Martin mentioned quickly Sebastian Vettel a really good end of the season those last three races were the best idea done for some time so that was pretty cool to see. I know they've got a Fernando Alonso coming Fernando Alonso is 40 plus years old but he still draw like he was 25 with all the experience that he's got it's amazing to see. Williams also knew American driver Logan Sargent next to Alex Alban. Alban showed some incredible performances this year didn't score that many points but I felt like his performances were more as much more than the points that he scored and Alfa Romeo same lineup next year fully they can also get back into the mix for the midfield they did a good season this year they didn't manage to stay ahead of Aston Martin which is pretty good for them but definitely next year with the knowledge from this year I think all those teams are gonna get closer and we're gonna see cars that are a little bit less different I think they're all gonna convert to kind of the same philosophy of cars as there's no regulation change. Well I think that's that's that's pretty much it for the season as always please subscribe like comment the video and know all we have to do is to wait couple of months three months until we are in the race at the race one of the 2023 season and see if I was right about Mercedes Red Bull and Ferrari fighting at the front and the midfield being tight.


All right, good afternoon. I was gonna write a very brief shell script and I figure I might take you along for the what ride This is a very it's gonna be a very simple script It's really just gonna be a case statement with a couple more things added on here's the problem that I want to solve In case you don't know there are two different ways of doing sound volume and everything on Linux Okay, so there's also also is what's just you know installed by default on all the Linux distributions It's a standard Linux sound system. I think it stands for something like that So these are the commands for changing volume for muting for toggling the mute of the master You know output or whatever it is Sync, I guess they call them an also I always forget But this is for changing volume muting your volume on also, but there are a lot of Linux distributions that use also Pulse audio pulse audio is some stuff that you install on top of also some people call it bloat Some people call it very useful, but these are the commands for doing the same thing in pulse audio and these are specifically binds that Increase the volume by five percent decrease it by five percent increase it by 15 decrease it by 15 The reason I have these particular numbers is those are things that are actually key binds on my computer So if I press, you know Hold down the mod key and plus press plus it increases my volume by five points or decreases it If I press minus stuff like that Anyway, I just want to automate that I want to have a wrapper that instead of having to know these two commands Or these two types of commands I just want to have a script that can choose which one is the correct one to run and this is just so people who Are using my dot files don't have to you know reset all of my bindings if they want to use pulse audio Okay, so here's how I'm gonna start I'm gonna start by naming the script LMC now if you've been around a while You know I used to have a script that did something similar that was named LMC And I'm just gonna say it stands for Luke's music control Well, I guess it's not necessarily music, but you know whatever so I'm gonna say It's a shell script in our shebang here And I'm also gonna go ahead and make this executable by running change mod Plus X on it. So now it can be executed. So to be clear. I'm also in local bin which happens to be in my path directory. I Expect you know what that is if you don't look it up It's just the folders that you can run a script directly from so I don't have to I can just type LMC as opposed to its exact location Okay, so here's how I want it to work. I want to be able to write run this I want to be able to run let's say LMC toggle and it's gonna pick either the also or the pulse audio version to run but it's gonna run that command or LMC up increase the volume So let's start at a basic level level. I'm just gonna put in the also commands at the start So how I want to do that if we're reading the first argument the first thing you give that script up or toggle You're gonna want to do something like this. Okay, so I'm gonna say just as an example Case argument one in we'll say toggle. Okay, and I'll explain what that is if you're lost already Master toggle notice. I'm just copying that command over there. Okay So this is how a case statement looks if you don't know anything about shell scripting Basically, it says okay. Take dollar sign one dollar sign one means again the argument you give it Okay, so in this case if I run this LMC up It up is gonna be dollar sign one or if I run it as down The string down is going to be dollar sign one But in this case Check dollar sign one if it's equal to toggle do this. Okay, so if it's equal to toggle toggle the the volume to be either Mute or unmute. Okay, so I also want a command for just muting it So I'm gonna change this to mute in the case that I give it the mute command run all this a mixer S set master mute. Okay, if I give it the up command Okay, I want it to do this I want it to do a mixer set master and then we'll say five percent increase that's just the idiosyncratic syntax of Ulsa and the same thing for down. Okay, down is nearly the same thing It's set for this is gonna be a minus, right? we're just looking at the commands over here and Let's just throw in these 50. We're gonna change this in just a second, but just as an example We'll go ahead and put in these 15% commands, but we have to call them something different.  Okay, so just to be clear. What did we just do? We made a little script here and how it's good what it's what it is going to do is it's gonna if I run LMC down it's gonna run that command that decreases our audio So now it is 68% if we run it again, it's gonna decrease it by five percent to 62 I know that's not exactly five percent, but that's not how a mixer actually works It's it sometimes it'll be a little bit different, but it's working Okay, so we can go down down five percent or we can go up five percent or we can toggle the mute Okay, so you might be wondering what is all this output? It's giving me this is just This is just the typical output of a mixer if we want to suppress all of that I can just say dead, you know put the entire state case statement to dev null meaning instead of Showing me what it's doing. It's just going to it should automatically Excuse me suppress all of this output. Okay now to be clear up here in my a Status bar, you'll see I actually do have a volume thingy up here that shows what my volume is But it has to be manually updated by running this command that's at the bottom So I'm actually gonna put this in my script that is let me the reason I have it like this Some status bars that are a little more memory intensive. They're always checking to see like what your volume is mine You have to manually tell it. Oh, I've changed this so update my volume and this is the command that does it So now if I run LMC up now It's going to update my volume. Actually, it's muted right now. Let me Unmute it. So we'll say toggle. Okay, so now it has toggled this and you'll see the volume So we can change it, you know to up now. Let's go on up stuff like stuff like that's very small up there But you can see that it's working. Okay, so we've integrated or also commands in here But how are we gonna put in pulse audio? All right now? There are different things you can do here. Actually before I even do that. Let's make something easier I think it's ugly for us to have big up and big down a separate commands because really they're basically the same as up And down right we can integrate these into one thing. So let's say I want to do this Let's say I want to say Let's say I want this LMC up Five to mean go up by five percent or up ten to mean go up by ten percent Well, we can pretty easily change this. So here's what I'm gonna do And by the way, this is gonna make these two commands Obsolete because we can just give them 15 in this context. So let's say I'm gonna replace five with The variable numb. Okay, that's a variable. I haven't defined yet, but let's define it Let's say numb is gonna be equal to this Now I'm gonna do something a little special here I'll explain what this is in a second. Okay, so what this is saying is the following now As I said dollar sign one that of course is going to be your first argument dollar sign to This is what this is is gonna be your second argument and what this is saying is Define numb as the following define it as dollar sign to your second argument But if you don't explicitly say what that is, let's say if we just run LMC up Assign the variable or it's assigned the value five to that. Okay. What does that mean? Okay? That means if I run LMC up it is going to increase my volume by five percent.  All right. That's what that is and this is a very terse way of saying that that is Use argument two if argument two doesn't exist just assume we're gonna use five Okay, that's all this line is saying and it actually says a lot for one little tiny line Okay, so now we've got we've got a good bit of stuff here now But we don't have the main thing we were actually making the script for and that is use either also or pulse mixer Okay, we only have the also command. So here's what I'm gonna do. Here's what I'm gonna change about the script I'm actually gonna take this stuff and copy it out and I'm gonna put it over here I'm actually gonna change it a little bit. I'm gonna redefine I'm gonna make these all defining functions Okay, what I mean by that is we're gonna do this Well, let's move these over first off and I'm gonna change this I'm going to use some Vim magic here to make these all Functions, okay, so we're going to yeah. All right. So now these are all we what we've done is we've Defined these as functions now we have a function called toggle and what that does is runs this command So we can actually go down here and we can replace all this stuff with just us calling the functions Now you might be like, okay, why why are you doing this that doesn't make any sense?  Wouldn't it be a waste to do that? No, the the good thing is now is we can define that we can have a check to check if we are running either Also or pulse audio and if we're running also we can define the functions like this if we're running pulse audio We can define the functions in a different way. Okay, so let's just say we'll start We'll just do it this way. We'll say this We'll say pulse equal to true All right, and we'll say if you're a pulse user all you have to do to make your my dot files Compatible with the script as you come in here and you unset you Uncomment this line so pulse equals true and here's what we're gonna say if pulse equals true If the variable pulse equals true then We're gonna well, we'll do some stuff in a second, but we're gonna define the functions with their pulse definitions Which we'll do in a second. Otherwise Define the functions like this. These are their alf alse definitions. Okay. Oops. I don't mean else I mean close your if statement. So to be clear Here's what we want to do. We want to define the Statements how we want them to look in pulse audio in this area Whereas our alse statements are already here. We've already finished for that. So let's actually so now what we have to do So I'm gonna copy this stuff And I'm gonna put it in here and I'm gonna replace all the also commands with pulse audio commands these Pulse mixer commands, so I'm not actually familiar with but whatever I'll just copy them blindly because I haven't used pulse audio in a long time So toggle mute Okay, and we'll replace that as well except for its only mute and then here we have what we have pulse mixer change Change charge Volume now if I edited videos, this would be a nice time to edit out But you know, I don't do that. We don't do that on this channel. We're real here Okay, so I think that's it. All right, so we've redefined all these functions. I'll check them later And here's how it works now This script can handle if you're running pulse audio or if you're running also all you do in this case is you come in here and you check If you want to switch the pulse if you've installed pulse audio you come here and you Uncomment this line and you will be running pulse audio commands. So now just to double check So we can increase our volume. We can increase it by 20. We can decrease it by 50 or something like that We can mute it. Okay, we can do all that kind of stuff toggle the mute and Now if we're pulse audio users we can come in here and automatically You know change everything now, of course There are ways of checking to see if you're running pulse audio right now just to be clear I I know because if I don't know that people will say, oh, well, you could have done this here For example is one example. We could say this instead of saying Make up this variable that you just define As be, you know, you if you have pulse define this variable You could do something like this. You could say this. Let's say p-grap x pulse audio Okay, so p-grap it checks to see if a process is running x means it has to be exactly It has to look exactly like this. Now if I run this, it's not gonna have output But if I started running pulse audio, it would return for it would return true It would return the value the process number of pulse audio Okay, so what what you could do is you could replace that instead of saying if blah blah blah you could say if p-grap x pulse audio Okay, and that every time you ran the script it would check to see if pulse audio is running If it is running it would run a pulse audio command if it's not running it would run something else Now you might they might say well, why don't you just do this luke? um It's a little bloated. I'll just say uh, if I ran p-grap. Let's run it actually p-grap x pulse audio Okay, p-grap just takes a little bit of time It takes probably even a little more time now that i'm recording Video, but let's just try it out. You see it takes like, you know a third of a second Okay, and if i'm running an audio command to change my volume or muted or something like that I don't really want that kind of latency. So i'm not going to put it in there But if you're using a task where a you know, a third of a second doesn't really matter You might want to consider that or you might know some smarter way to test for if pulse audio is running or not And you can go ahead and tell me Maybe there's some environmental variable that pulse audio sets or something like that There might be some kind of file you could check but either way this will do pretty much simple enough So anyway, um, this video has been a little disjointed. We've talked about different things But I really just wanted to put out the process like what my mindset is when i'm i'm going through writing a shell script Very simple You get things done pretty quickly and it actually has it's very useful to me because i'll probably be using this My dot files and it will probably avoid a lot of Headaches on some people's, you know, just so they don't have to worry. You don't have to recompile dwm if they want to use Pulse audio. All right, that's it. I'll see you guys next time


Kevin kind of another grinded outside win, but you guys got three in a row just what do you think was the difference in the second I have to pull away from them and secure it We defended better than that second half and end up shooting 43 44 percent from the field After being after shooting 50 most of the night. So What?  Sorry Yeah, so I think we just guarded up better and he was able to get whatever we went on the offensive We moved the ball pretty nicely in that second half Then you guys are on track to get teacher back in the next game or two. Obviously, it's just got rust to kick off It's probably a minstrel streamers. Where do you think he can help you guys even a limited capacity?  I'm happy for him. He's been away from the game for so long so We won't put too many too much, you know, too high expectations on them, but you know, we're excited to have him back Kevin you're 44 of your last 64 Do you remember a stretch as far as from the field where you've been this efficient? Yeah, a couple times. I had three four-game stretches where I feel like I made every shot They come and go, you know, I'm saying I can't rely on I can't go in the games expecting that, you know If I don't put the work and prepare the right way that I'll make every shot So I can't get comfortable right now that I'm shooting the ball solid I just got to keep it going keep keep preparing our way right way and keep my mind in the right place We were talking about before the last game of your joke and I sometimes you can have bad shooting Nights warming up and start rolling. Is there something? Consistently in the last few games that you feel when you're getting the ball and you're just putting up shots right now I'm just playing carefree basketball. I mean, I think that's That's the best way to play sometimes when you want to win too much, you know, you're getting your own way You distract yourself a bit. I mean worried about the results too much So I was trying to focus on each process each possession and also move on To the next possession rather, you know regardless of if it's a you know The previous possession is good or bad try to move on and keep stacking up good possessions for myself.  Emphasizing the here and now This game this possession He's been huge, you know, just keeping it simple We know we have high expectations for our team, but the process is more important and you know Then the end result so each day matters like I just said and Jock has been preaching that Since he got the job and you know as a player, you know, you'd like to simplify the game We'd like to simplify what you're doing and that's what you've been doing this whole time and you know guys been learning on the fly but also picking up things quick and Applying it quickly. So Jock was doing a great job for us


Hi everyone, Joe for jazby's casebreaks.com with Nick in the top camera right there. Pop it open our 13 box multi-year basketball mixer with a Zion Auto giveaway. So at the very end of the break, we'll do the break first, obviously. At the end of the break, we'll give this guy away. A Zion Spectra Celestial Auto to $49. Last few sales over $2,000, over $2,200 even. And this one is graded a nine, mint nine. Here are the boxes involved here, some very nice boxes in here. There's everybody involved right here. I'll show you the Zion too. This is what you can get. So if you end up with a crappy team, a bad team, or if you have a bad break or whatever, don't get any hits or anything like that, you still have a shot at this, should be pretty awesome. So again, big thanks to the people who bought spots straight up. And thank you to, or congrats again to the people who won their spots in here too. There are the teams right here. You haven't missed it, Tyler. Let's roll it. Let's randomize it. Three and a six, nine times for each list, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. And I said nine, right? Not doing well with the numbers today. Three and a six, nine times, once more. There you go. After nine, we've got Chris all the way down to Marco. Oh, no, I didn't. I'll do that after I do the teams. Three and a six, nine times for the teams, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, and ninth and final time. After nine, we've got the Spurs all the way down to the Miami Heat. All right. So Chris with the Spurs, Bulldog fan with the Grizzlies. Nice. Chris with the Clippers, Daniel with the Mavs. Fawad with the Bulls. Kevin, Pelicans. Ryan H with the Nets. Tyler with the Kings. Richard with the Pacers. Michael with the Hawks. Ron with the Jazz. Summon with the Raptors. CJ with the T-Wills. Matthew with the Pistons. Scott with the Rockets. Daniel with the Magic. Brad with my Lakers. Nice. Nick Stover with the Wizards. Daniel with the Cavs. Chris Erickson with the Bucks. Chris Gerard with the Knicks. CJ with the Sons. Russ with the Hornets. Michael with the Trailblazers. Chris with the Celtics. Nancy with the Sixers. Chris H with the Warriors. Chris Erickson with the Denver Nuggets. Sean with the Thunder. And Marco Miltz with the Miami Heat. So we're going to leave the video running so that we can keep recording Nick opening up those packs right there. Let me sort this by column B by team. One quick little change in this break. It's actually to your benefit. We ran out of, what was it, Chronicles Black Hanger? So that doesn't exist anymore, right? I can actually take it off my inventory list here. My break log. So instead we added 2019 Chronicles Blaster. Right? Yeah, 1920. 1920. No 1920 Chronicles Hanger. Took that out. Added 1920 Chronicles Blaster. Additional one. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, and a second one, 13. So there's actually minus that and two of the blasters, which is actually like what, another $50, $20 advantage to you. It's not a huge difference, but an important one. Remember, still have a shot at this at the very end as well. Let's actually make the camera a little bit larger here too. I want to slide that so you can see him working on that. No funny business there. We're not into the funny business. It's a waste of our time and yours. Let the other people do funny business. No, Tatem, get up. Jason, don't be hurt. All right, any trades or should we roll? It actually won't be as long as I thought it would be, so. No, he's up, he's up, he's walking around. He's fine. He's got rattled a little bit. He's OK. Hashtag good for the hobby. OK, looks like no trades. I'm going to make the font larger and show you again. That's my line, Daniel. I say it when we roll. Let's roll. Let's print and rip. There you go. Let's print that out. Let's switch screens right here. What's our first thing? Maybe this? What's this? Boom. Got some chronic. There's the pink parallels here, which are kind of hard to spot. There's no name right here. No name Nikhil Alexander Walker. Gordon Nikhil Alexander Walker. Pink parallels right here. Brandon Clark, losing some names here. That is Jared Colby. Is that off of Kyle? Oh, that's his hand right there. Oh, that's off of Kyle, yeah. Koby White, losing a name. Cody Martin Pink. Pink Tyler Hero. Pink Luka Donchich. Brandon Clark. Kendrick Nunn. Marcus Morris, traded in the Luka Donchich right here as well. And, Yana, are the bucks in trouble, Nik? Down three out of two members has come back. They are definitely in trouble. I'm not sure if you knew that. They definitely never said that before. Drink every time you do it, you might have alcohol poisoning. All right, we'll sleeve all these other ones a little bit later as well. I mean, Yana thinks he can. If there's a year that a 3-0 up to would happen, it'd be this year. It'd be this year, yeah. Yana thinks he can do it. He believes. Do another blaster right here. Let's do those two blasters in a row. All right, more pink parallels right here. There's our first genre rant sighting. Tyler Hero. Pink Kendrick Nunn. More Tyler Hero.  We're kind of breezing through these a little bit. There's Pink LeBron James. Set that aside. There's Zion Williamson and Hachimura Pink. Turn it over. Boston's a little far away, isn't it? Aren't they? To win this one? Why jump all? Let's see, I guess. All right, oh, I didn't even show you the list yet. It's the final printout.  John Morant. Is an excellent hit. That's gonna go to Will. All the John Morant's. Luka Donchiches, even second year Luka Donchiches.  They've got some good secondary market value. One of the, basically Luka, Yannis and LeBron and Kobe if he's on the checklist. Kobe Bryant are the only vets that are gonna ship. Nice Zion Williamson pink parallel for Kevin and the Pelicans. We've got 245, 240 left in this game. 96, 87, Toronto leading, trying to tie up the series. Another Zion for the Pel is another one for Kevin. Just be an exciting finisher. And another John Morant. Indiana, you think Yannis will be a warrior? Is this the last year of his contract? Yannis? Does he have one more year? Yeah, he's a great 2021. Wow. So next year. So it's either. No, 24. Yeah, I guess it's on the 7th now. So I guess. He's a great in the summer of 2021. So either the bucks trade in to get something or they just let him walk in free agency if he doesn't resign. I guess that's. They can also pay it more money than they had their team. Right. But I feel like that happens and people still leave. Haven't people done that? Yeah, Durant did it. I saw your tweet about the Popovich cards. So there was like, we had an old, we had like a sort of a half joke that these coaches cards in these sets and nice bam out of bio that they'd be valuable like Greg Popovich silver would be pretty incredible. That's second year. Ben Simmons, we're joking that. Oh yeah, get those. Get those. Greg Popovich prism silvers that from this year.  One of the greatest basketball. There's pop right now. And then Nick found like a PSA nine or 10 on Popovich, which is like 50 bucks or something. Yeah, a few different sets, but still. And maybe this would have been a dollar, maybe. Back when this came out. There's Justin Patton, T-Wolfs. That's gonna go to CJ Monroe. Daniel's saying, I wish there was a better place than eBay to trade cards or to sell cards.  And there's COMC. COMC is a good alternative. I've been hearing a lot of things about Starstock. Starstock is a place you can get into. Yeah, or the Jaspie's Facebook group. Where is it? You can buy, sell, trade, and chat in our Facebook group. I know a lot of people are making sales in there. That's a target audience. There are some alternatives. But eBay has the most eyeballs. That's the thing. eBay does have the most eyeballs, which is why everyone, people end up deferring to that. Oh, Donovan Mitchell, Prism Rookie. Just base, but still nice. Ron Wester, got a spot straight up. Gets the jazz, if this grades out nice. Who knows? Raptors up by eight with a minute 25 left. Raptors half the ball. Running out the clock. Tick, tick, tick, tick. Missed that bucket. You gotta push it. You can take a shot. And a silver, Prism Silver Caleb Swanigan. Obviously you never know how those Prism Silvers can work out for these players, so let's take care of that. Swanigan for the Trail Bears, Michael C. And Markel Foltz for the 76ers, Nancy. What are we closing with? Is that a choice box? Oh, nice. Let's have a Donner's choice. Here's Donner's basketball. We'll have Donner's choice a little bit later. Oh, awesome. Thank you, Nick. All right, there's Rookies, Doug McDermott, Artist Proof to 99. We've got Chris Paul, Luke Gray in the playoffs. DeMartha Rosen, Elite Dominators. That's a 999, still Raptors edition there. Jabari Parker rated Rookie. And so this is 2015. That's what we're going into here, 2015. Chris, what's going on? LeBron James, Cavs will save. Gola Depot to 327. Peter, do we do greatest hit packs like Leaf does? Yeah, we do a version of that. Do a version of that. If you go to jaspys.com, we have hit packs on there currently, right now. That's a great play by Celtics. Play Thompson, Press Proof. Yeah, we have two different sites, Peter. So this on the YouTube channel, what you're watching right now, just group breaks, only group breaks on jaspyscasebreaks.com. And then all the personal boxes and some hit packs. Sometimes we have hit packs here, but personal boxes and whatnot will go, will be on jaspys.com. There's Michael Kidd Gilcrest, Game Threads, Charlotte. Daniel Singh, come on, Luca. Yeah, you're not going to find Luca Donchich in 2015. Product here. I think he'd be like 16, 17 years old in this site. Although in Europe he would have been a phenom in Europe. Hort Kings, Derrick Rose to 159. Ooh, an offense, that doesn't help. Gary Harris, The Rookies. How old would Zion be in this 15, 16 box? 15 years old, 14 years old? Mariah Stottemeyer, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Elite. Patrick Ewing, Doug McDermott.  I think Trom's going to tie the series up. I was just thinking the same thing, Daniel. I was like, who is the big names in this 2015 class? This is the Wiggins class. I haven't seen any of The Rookies pop out of it yet. Carly Towns, there's Marcus Smart rated rookie. He's playing right now. Greg Monroe here. Oh, Embiid, I see. I don't think I ran it to any Embiid stuff. Greg Monroe, Relic. Oh, it's 2014. Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon Yokic. I haven't seen any of those guys, though.  How about that?  I think won a dunk contest this first year in the league. Former UCLA guy. Timberwolves, CJ Monroe. Looks like the game is over. 15 seconds left, Toronto up by seven. This is a series now, it's tied at two. We got some Crusade here. This is 13, 14 Crusade. Giannis. We got Marquise Morris at 349. Tony Snell, Jordan Crawford, Hayton. And we've got Shane Larkin, apprentice rookie auto for Dallas. That's gonna go to Daniel. Jeff Teague to 349. A little extra chalk on here. Generally used to keep the cards from kind of rubbing against each other too much. Create a little bit of a separation. Sometimes they use too much. Robert Ori die cut for the Spurs, 58 out of 99. Tony Snell rookie, Steph Curry, Jerry West to 349. Even just as Giannis rookie card, doesn't even have to be a hit would be pretty awesome. Michael Finley to 349. Patrick Ewing, Terence Ross. We got a Dwayne Wade relic here, majestic relic. Marco with the heat. Tyler Bredder, can we do five star baseball tonight? That's up to you, not me. You don't need to ask my permission. And there's Kyle Corburn, Joachim Noah. Let's go with some Prism. This is 1617. Patty Mills Green. Some Jalen Brown. Anthony Bennett, Sarich. And Deonta Davis, rookie relic.  About some Donors Opt. Derek White, Hollow. Dennis Smith, Jr. Bama to Bio, Hollow. Rookie Kings, Hollow for the heat. Marco, Relique Monk, TJ Warren, Ante Zizic. For the Cavs, that's gonna be for Daniel. No Tatum's, no Mitchell's. No, nothing here. Court King's, Anthony Davis. All right. How about some more Prism right here? How about this one? We've got 1516 Prism. Green, remember Chris Cayman? Sam Decker, Marcosal Orange. Not numbered. Joe Young. Want me to do status next? Yeah, sure. Do status. Nothing too crazy in there. All right, here's some status. 1718 status. We've got this trio, I thought this was gonna be numbered. Well, they're all nicks. And we've got Rodney Hood to 199. For the Jazz, Jordan Bell Rookie. Harry Giles, Christopps Porzingus. And we've got another trio right here. That's numbered to 299. Laurie Markin and Rookie. Josh Hart Rookie, Torrin Prince to 299. And we've got a new breed, autographed Frank Tillichina for the New York Knicks. It's gonna be for Chris G. That's to 149. Bam Adubio Rookie, nice. I like the status set. Heat, that'll be for Marco. Halkusma Rookie. Dirk Nowitzki, Russell Westbrook. Avery Bradley to 149. Another trio right here. And Frank Jackson on the back. All status. Do you like the design of that status set? Let's go with some illusions. 1920 illusions basketball. There's Christian Wood. We haven't done a lot of these. These are really cool too. Anthony Simons, that's 99. And Luke Nard, these are your superlatives. Autograph, yeah, wrong. We've certainly seen better plastic in there. There we go. Nard Pistons, it'll be for Matthew Shiro. Tim Hardaway, junior to 25. Shining Stars, acetate. Bowl, bowl. Got a little bit of hobby love going into the reseeding games. Daddy is young, sorry, the 99 for the bowls. There's Illumination Giannis, Antietta Campo. Goga from Braun James. Denver up five, two, very, very early. Whoa, that Giannis is out of five. You see the number right at his feet? Two out of five, Giannis, Antietta Campo, Illumination. Out of illusions. Nice, who's got the bucks? Chris Erickson, who won this spot in a chronic hanger break, got randomized the bucks here and gets out of fives and under and get the train whistle. All aboard the Big Head Express. Woo-hoo! It's a nice design there too, I like that. Make sure I'm not missing any numbers on the bottom there. Kobe White, Gold to 10, Brooke Lopez. Jimmy Butler playing well, Kam Reddish has upside. A lot of cards to sleeve and top load and our shipping team will take care of that before all this gets sorted out. There's Carlton, the Italian to 99. These zions that I'm missing here. There's a John Morant, nice. Mystique, LeBron James. All right, there's a John Morant. What's this called? Rookie Vision, John Morant. That goes to Will and the Memphis Grizzlies. Nice. I like that Mystique LeBron too for the Lakers, Brad. I don't know, all these LeBrons, not even his rookie year, not even close to his rookie year and LeBron inserts and whatnot, have been selling pretty well on the secondary market. All right, we got some contenders. Got some contenders from 1819 contenders. We've got Playoff Ticket, Kirby Thomas, one out of 35 for the Pistons. That'll be for Matthew Shearer. Lottery Ticket, Jerome Robinson and Damien Lillard back here. Carmelo Anthony to 199, Rockets Edition. Jeremy Lin, Season Ticket. Here's a Giannis. 51 points for Bradley Beal. That's a lot, a lot of points. Another Giannis. And looks like we got an up-and-coming autograph, Dante DiVincenzo, 16 out of 25. Milwaukee Bucks, Chris Erickson with that auto, plus all those Giannises. And a Cracked Ice, Hall of Fame contenders, 11 out of 25, LeBron James. Brett, I would not be surprised if this goes for a lot more than you think, especially since everyone loves the Cracked Ice vibe and contenders. It's LeBron. Big Superstar, there you go, nice. There he is again. Kevin Durant to 135. Got a Zach Levine Season Ticket. A chrome design there, not the paper design. Serge, Jalen, DeMarcus, LaMarcus, and Ben Simmons. All right, two more to go, Mosaic, and then the choice, Donner's Choice. All right, this is 1920 Mosaic basketball, of course. Troy Brown, Green, and the Orange Reactives from the Hanger sets. There's the Jay Crowder, Orange for the Gris. Will, there's DeAndre Benbury for Mike and the Hawks. Marcus Morris for the Knicks, that's gonna be for Chris, and Kyle Kuzma for the Lakers, that's Brad. Achimura, Zion, NBA debut, and Casey O'Fala. I'd be tempted to grade that LeBron Cracked Ice, Brad. 11 out of 25, everyone seems to love those cracked ices. I mean, you might have to, it's kind of maybe hard to tell without your eyes. You might have to look at this in person, but if you feel like maybe the edge is a little weird on the bottom there, just at a glance, but corners look pretty sharp. We popped it right into the penny sleeve in a top loader, so surface is always hard to determine that, but I feel like with contenders and cracked ices being so popular, might be worth, maybe even just for funsies, just to grade it and see what happens, because if you get lucky enough for a 10, then that could definitely make the value a lot higher. There's a 63 at 99, Romeo Langford for the Celtics, they lost today's series, it's tied at two, now it's exciting. There's Jamal Murray, 19 out of 35, Nuggets out to a 12-two start in the first quarter, 750 left in the first quarter, so maybe more of a statement from them. We've got Courtney Lee to 99 for the Mavs, that'll be for Daniel. The autograph is gonna be Dominator's autograph, Deandre Aitin, nine out of 99, second year, great evolution from Deandre Aitin, he's improved a lot. CJ Monroe, I mean, even though he's a former number one pick, could you almost buy low on Deandre Aitin these days? And then we've got an old school hawk, Lenny Wilkins, Hall Dominator's for Michael and Atlanta. There you go, Michael C, won that spot in a chronic hanger box break. We've got Deandre Aitin's teammate, Cameron Johnson, Sun's team could look excellent, they were perfect in the bubble. Maybe they can keep that going and make the West pretty interesting. Jordan Poole, Warriors, Chris Hendrick, we got Jared Culver, T-Wolves, CJ Monroe, we got a nice Darius Garland for the Cavs, that's gonna be for Daniel Graham. Here's another solid play right here, Matisse Tybalt, great shooter, solid defender too, Nancy with the Sixers. And there you have it boys and girls, a nice break, very solid break, we'll do a quick recap after we give away this Zion, so if you're like, man, that was a rough break for me, Joe. Hang on, we still have a shot at this, the PSA9, Zion, Jersey and Otto, from Spectra basketball, love that pattern, 32 out of 49, everyone has a shot at it. Whether you've got one spot or whether you won that spot, however, it doesn't matter how you got in. There's the whole list right there, so from Michael down to Nick Stober, let's put him in a blank list here, no points too, that's good. New dice roll, name on top gets the Zion after six and a four, 10 times. After 10, name on top gets the Zion. Good luck, one, two, eight, nine, and 10th and final time. Now from two down to 30, I appreciate everybody giving this a shot, chasing the Zion, chasing the hits in this mixer, I appreciate that, and congrats to Nancy. Wow, she had the Sixers. I don't think, aside from that Tybalt, I don't think I called your name very often during the Rignance. So there you go, that Zion going your way. I know she's a fan of the Pelicans too, she's down there in that area. There she is, Nancy, there you go. Last couple sales, Nick was saying in the description, over $2,200, but since you're a Pelicans gal, you might be inclined to hold on to this, so it's already graded for you. Look at that, bad break for you, great result at the end. There you go, Nancy. All right, here's a quick recap of the mixer itself, which wasn't too bad, nice crack to ice, Lebron, some Zions, some Marantz, Zach Levine rookie, plus a ton of other rookie cards and stuff that are gonna be sleeved and top loaded before they go out. Pink Parallel, Zion, John Marantz, and that out of five, Giannis Antedicompo was nice, and of course, Zion Williamson for our old friend, Volleyball Nancy, there you go. Congrats again, Nancy, thanks everyone else for getting in, that was the 13 box multi-year basketball mixer from jaskiescasebreaks.com. Joe, I'll break more of this with you next time, bye-bye.


So it's my great pleasure to introduce Professor Samuel Wu, Wu Xiu-guang, Wu Xiu-guang Yorong. And I'll say a little bit more about him in a minute. But just first of all on the subject, I'm glad we've got a reasonable turn up here because cross-strait relations are obviously hugely important. It goes without saying that for people who live in Taiwan, they're absolutely fundamental. It's an existential issue. But it's not much short of that for Australia too. Particularly people like me, I've had somewhat amphibious existence moving between a government and university, a Manian government, a bit more recent than university. When we think about what most determines Australia's strategic circumstances for better or for ill, for quite some time now it's been the state of relations between the people of the Republic of China and the United States. And in that Taiwan plays an absolutely crucial role. And we've had periods of considerable tension. We've had periods which have been somewhat more relaxed. But it's an issue that is certainly not going to go away, so continues to be of great importance. Of course, apart from the strategic and the economic interests that Australia has involved in that they're a broader moral and political and ethical issues as well. But I'll leave the subject quite properly to Professor Wu. But I said I was somewhat amphibious in terms of my career. But I'm amphibious, I'm at a loss for words to describe Professor Wu because he seems to have done absolutely everything. He's been involved in administration. He's been involved in real politics as Deputy Mayor of Taipei. He's been involved in scholarship. He's been a political scientist but also a politician. He's been involved in business and investment. There seem to be very few things that he hasn't done. And although this is his first visit to Canberra, as he's just confessed he has been to Australia on quite a few occasions before too. So he's no stranger to our shores. And I think he also understands therefore why this issue is of considerable importance to people in Australia as well as people in the wider world, most especially in Taiwan. So Professor Wu, I would like to invite you to come and make your presentation. The words have been carefully chosen. We discussed this last night, the perspectives of cross-strait relations and analytical framework and its implications. So that should give us plenty to go on with until 3 o'clock. We'll have the presentation and then depending on how much time we have we'll have Q&A. So Professor. Thank you. Thank you for the introduction. Thank you for everybody for coming. It's my greatest honor to be invited to this particular conference and to be the keynote speaker of this session. And I would like to take this opportunity to appreciate the Australian Center on China in the World and the Academia Kacinica, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Australia and the Impengyuan Cultural and Educational Foundation for putting together all of these efforts and to put this conference together and inviting me here. The topic I would like to discuss about is the perspectives of cross-strait relations. And what I'm trying to do here is to provide an analytical framework and then discuss about the implication of that particular analytical framework. I have to admit that I'm no fortune teller, so I don't know what's going to happen one or two years from now between Taiwan and China. And neither I don't hold a governmental position now. So I don't have the necessary data that I need to fit into my analytical model to make a very precise prediction of what may happen in the future. So in this particular discussion, what I'm trying to do is just to provide an analytical framework and then try to apply the analytical framework and to use the limited data that I have and to have some gestures and to have some guess about what may happen. So there will be a lot of if and then or if and if and then. So that's what I'm going to report to you. So before that, I would like to also discuss a little bit about myself. Actually, now I'm not a full-time professor at the university anymore. I now serve as the chairperson of an international investment private equity fund. And then before that, I served as the deputy mayor of Taipei. And then before that, I actually taught at the National Change University. And before that, I actually had a chance to teach in the United States. I taught at the Texas A&M University and I also serve as an assistant researcher at the Hoover Institution, back to many years ago. And the funny thing about my change of jobs is that I found that in my current job, I actually concerned even more about the future. Because what happened in the future may have a tremendous influence on the future of my job. So I have to try to make it right. And that's exactly the reason why I try to come up with an analytical framework to help me to organize all the information that I gathered and try to make sense out of those information. So what's going to happen in the prospect relations in the years to come? We have to look back a little bit. The security environment in Asia actually has undergone major changes in the last few years and may face even greater change in the near future, I think. And the most relevant one to the prospect relations is the succession of power by Xi Jinping, China's new leader. After Xi took the new position as the president of PRC, he was able to consolidate his power almost immediately by taking the military shift job and also initiate major crackdown on those corrupt high rank officers at the same time. So apparently that he will be the one who is in charge for mainland China for the prospect relations for many years to come. However, we will see later in the framework that he is constrained by many structural factors. For example, he will certainly be constrained by China's domestic stability and the rise of nationalism in China. And the greater the instability and the rise of radical nationalism in China, the less room Xi Jinping will have to compromise with, for example, a pro-independent Taiwanese leader. Xi's decision may also interact with the decision by the United States leaders and the Taiwanese leaders. If Xi expects the much friendly relations with Taiwan due to a much compromising Taiwanese leaders in the future, for example, then he will be less likely to take assertive actions against Taiwan currently. So we are going to take a very dynamic view of what's going on in this period of time and what's going to influence to the next period of time. And on the contrary, if he expects very negative cross-strait relations in the future, then the chance for him to take a hostile action against Taiwan then is increased. And similarly, the possible change of national leadership in Taiwan in 2016 will also be a significant factor to the future of the cross-strait relations. If a new KMT leader is selected as the successor of President Ma, then it is more than likely that Ma's current reproachment policy will be continued. However, if a DTP leader is selected as president, for example, if Tsai Ing-wen was selected, then it will create great uncertainties to the future of the relations. The possible influence of the new DTP leaders to the cross-strait relations may not have to wait until the actual leadership change in 2016. Since the KMT has already lost the 9-in-1 local election in last year in such a dramatic way, the signaling effect of the events is strong enough for the Chinese leader to take some preventive actions. For example, mainland China may make stronger efforts to interact with selected DPP elites to push a new China policy from DPP and to pressure the current KMT government to reach further agreement so that the trend of reproachment becomes irreversible. So, then to what extent in my discussion, I will try to discuss the following questions. To what extent the cross-strait relations will be influenced by the transition of leadership in China and in Taiwan? And what will the leader be constrained? Will all these leaders be constrained by the already existed structural factors? He or she is more of a determinant factor to the future of the cross-strait relations. And what are those structural factors? And in what way those factors will shape the future of the cross-strait relations? And what are the strategies of the relevant leaders may do to best serve their respective interests? These are the questions I will try to discuss in this particular trend. But because of the limit of time, I will concentrate my last part of the analysis of what China may do according to this particular analytical framework. So, let's take a look of the analytical framework first. So, if we take a look of the literatures that discussed about the cross-strait relations, we're going to find that the literature will concentrate the discussion of all three categories of factors. The first category is the international system factors. I will explain what they are and what does it mean later. And the second one is the interactive factors between the two sides of the straits. And the third one is the linkage factor of the domestic politics to the cross-strait relations. It means that the linkage between domestic politics and the interactive decisions. And among all these three categories of factors, the most direct factors should be the interactions between the two governments leads by their respective local leaders. For example, the recent rapprochement between the two has been the direct result of the change of national leadership in Taiwan in 2008 when Ma took the office. And the expectation that things may get in better by the men in Chinese leadership is apparently a significant factor that convinced them to make economic concessions to Taiwan on the negotiation table in the last few years. However, the political leaders of both sides are constrained by the international system factors and their domestic politics. Men in Chinese leaders may want to take strong negative actions against a pro-independent Taiwanese leader. But if the United States is in support of Taiwan strongly, and then the China's move is constrained, and the relations among these factors may be illustrated in this particular figure. So let's take a look of this particular illustration. The factors actually can be summarized and operationalized as the following. If we take a look... Oh, sorry. Okay. The dependent variable we try to explain is the frustrate interactions. And I have to remind everybody that I try to make this particular analytical framework a dynamic one instead of a static one. So the interaction of the previous period may have a feedback effect to the model and then influence the next stage of the interactions. But what would be the frustrate interactions as a dependent variable? They are the direct result of the decisions by the Chinese leaders and the Taiwanese leaders. And I would like to operationalize their decision as the following. From the Chinese leader's side, I would say it's the level of assertiveness against Taiwan because we all know that China... The ultimate goal for China to push their frustrate relationship is to reunify with Taiwan. That's the ultimate goal. And then from Taiwan's part, I believe that Taiwan's decision can be operationalized as the level of independent against China. But these two decisions will have the most direct result to the frustrate interactions. But they are constrained by the two categories of variables. Let's take a look at the one in the above, the international factors. The international factors can be summarized and operationalized simply as the United States' support to Taiwan. Although a lot of other many countries' support to Taiwan are also important, but the most crucial one and the one that can be operationalized the most easily is the U.S. support to Taiwan. And then in turn, the U.S. support to Taiwan will be influenced by two factors, two variables. The first one is the power balance between U.S. and China. And the second one is the strategic interdependence between the United States and China. So, for example, the interactions of later two variables will determine the current form of the frustrate relations. And the current form of frustrate relations will signal to both political leaders what to expect in the future from their counterpart. And then many Chinese leaders will concentrate its concerns on whether Taiwan will get closer to Taiwan's goal of China's goal of reunification. And Taiwan's leaders will concentrate its concerns on whether China will become more democratized so that Taiwan will be less threatened by a stronger and wealthier China. Since we all notice that Taiwan seldom worry about a stronger United States or a stronger Japan. Why Taiwan would worry so much about a stronger China? I think it's because China is basically not a democratic regime. If China becomes a democratized regime just like Taiwan or United States or Japan, it will fit with Taiwan's leaders' concerns much better. So, let's take a look at the interactive factors. As mentioned above, the respective future expectation of Chinese leaders and Taiwanese leaders toward one another will have its important impact on their current decisions. If Chinese leader believes that the future frustrate relations is headling to the better, then he or she is less likely to take hostile actions now. Similarly, if Taiwanese leaders believe that China's political system will be more and more democratized, then therefore become more and more like that in the Taiwanese system, then he or she, the Taiwanese leader in the future, is less worried about Taiwan becoming too dependent on China. And a lot of scholars mentioned about this. However, if Chinese leaders believe that things are getting worse and then he or she is more likely to take hostile actions against Taiwan, especially if Chinese leaders believe that time is not on China's side, and if the longer they wait, the less likely that China will have the chance to move things back to the track. And then the Chinese leaders may be compelled to take strong preemptive actions in the current year. So that's the things that we have to pay attention to. And then let's take a look of the third categories of the factors, that's the domestic factors, and then think about how these domestic factors will link to the frustrate interactions. The Chinese leaders' decision is certainly constrained, just like we mentioned a little bit earlier, that China's domestic stability. And also it will be influenced by the China's development of nationalism in China. Scholars like Ma Wenong and Su Wen all mentioned about this. And then the Chinese leaders' perception of its military readiness against Taiwan is another important variable. The stronger the race of China's nationalism in domestic politics, the less room its leader has when confronting against perceived hostile actions against China, such as Taiwanese move toward independence. However, Chinese leaders' willingness to take assertive action against Taiwan is apparently conditioned by its perceived military balance and readiness against Taiwan. The China's domestic stability and also constrained and conditioned by China's domestic stability. The stronger the Taiwanese military balance in favor of China, then the more likely that Chinese leadership will take strong actions against Taiwan when the moment is needed. And then, so all these domestic factors then will all have impact on the leader's decision and then have an impact on the interaction. And the interaction of the current period will have an important influence on the next period of interactions. So that's how this particular model works. But we should take a closer look of the language politics itself. There is what we call two-level games and a loop of influence and interactions among the three major players here in the cross-strait relations, Taiwan, China, and the United States. Here, I try to use what we call the principal agent theories to help us to understand what's the interaction between the two collectives, the Taiwan and China. The Taiwanese leaders, I have to apologize that the direction of the error is wrong, but I'll explain them a little later. The Chinese political leaders is selected or authorized by the Taiwanese domestic mechanism, which is the democratic elections. So why, for example, President Ma can represent Taiwan to negotiate with China because he is elected as the president and he is authorized by the Taiwanese domestic mechanism.  The two mechanisms may be different. The one in Taiwan may be much more democratic one. And the one in China may be much more authoritarian one. It will be a decision among a very small group of the central committee members. But no matter what, the leader is produced by a mechanism domestically. After he was elected as the leader, then he will be the agent for the collectives to negotiate with another political leader. But no matter what result come out of the negotiation between the two leaders, they will still have to bring back draft of the negotiation agreement back and for the ratification by their principles. So, for example, the service and the pact that agreement reached by China and Taiwan last year was still waiting for the ratification in the legislative yen in Taiwan. And so we see that even you come up with an outcome out of the negotiation, it's not the end of the story. You still have to bring back that particular tentative agreement for the ratification of your principles back home. And that's also the case in China. So in that case, later if I have time and if some of you among the audience would like to know a little bit more about the details of the two-level game analysis, I would try to illustrate that on the board. But at this point I think I'd better skip that part. But no matter what, among the factors mentioned above, some can be manipulated by political leaders and some are not. Among those factors that can be manipulated, political leaders would choose those most effective and efficient ones as priorities. So in this particular figure, for example, the Chinese leaders, when they try to influence Taiwanese leaders' decision, they may not have to deal with Taiwanese leaders directly. One possible way is to try to influence the Taiwanese domestic mechanism indirectly and then try to influence this part and then have an impact on the Taiwanese leaders' decision. And so that's the reason why we start to observe that a lot of Chinese leaders go to the southern part of Taiwan and try to make friends with a lot of DPP leaders and also make friends with a lot of the residents in the southern part of Taiwan. I think that's where their strategy tries to influence the Taiwanese domestic mechanism and then have an indirect influence on Taiwanese leaders' decision. And actually Taiwanese leaders can do the same thing, although it would be much more difficult for Taiwanese to do that. But one possible way of doing that is to try to, just like what Professor Schaub said yesterday, if we can make the level of democratization in China increased and then it will create a better environment for Taiwan in the future. So as demonstrated by this particular figure, the political leaders is the prospective agent of the collective body and he or she is authorized by the respective principles through the state's respective authorization mechanism. And after the authorization, such as an election elected as the president, the leader then is empowered to negotiate with its counterpart. However, if the tentative agreement can be reached between one leader and another one, and then the agreement will still require the ratification from the principles through each collective respective ratification mechanism. So for example, just like what I mentioned earlier, the trade and service pact agreed by the Hai Ji Hui and the Hai Xie Hui, the SES and the ARATS is still waiting for the ratification from the legislative union in Taiwan. And so therefore, to a political leader, there are several different ways to influence another political leader's decision. He or she is able to influence the other leaders by the direct interactions of negotiation. But he or she can also try to influence the other side by indirect interactions with the principles of the other side's authorization mechanism and through its relations with the third collective. So, after we understand all these factors, and from some of my previous analysis, I found that the interesting thing about the linkage politics is that sometimes the internal or domestic conflict may not be a bad thing. For example, when there is an argument inside of Taiwan about whether to what extent we should re-approach with China, the kind of argument inside of Taiwan may not be a bad thing for Taiwan because that would convince all the persuade Chinese leaders to give it more. In Taiwan, sometimes a lot of husbands will drink together and one negotiation that usually happens on the dinner table will try to convince another guy to drink more. But then if somebody asks me to drink more and if I can successfully convince him that I have a very strong wife and against me and not to allow me to drink too much, and if everybody believes that's true, and then I will have a better chance not to drink that much. So, the similar logic also applies here. So, when there is a very strong opposition inside of Taiwan, sometimes on the negotiation table between Taiwan and China, actually that may not be a bad thing. So, what's the implication after we understand these three categories of factors? And I would like to concentrate my discussion on what China may do according to the framework and the two-level gap. So, actually, again, I would discuss about what China may do according to the three categories of variables and to discuss about them from the three perspectives. So, in general, the new Chinese leaders may be able to influence the future relations according to the map of influence and interaction loops, just illustrated earlier, but still constrained by variables mentioned in the analytical framework. So, what Chinese leaders may do, first, let's take a look off the international aspect. I think the first thing that they may do is try to create a better strategic relations with the United States so as to reduce the U.S. support to a Taiwan. And we have already observed a lot of that. For example, the two leaders just reached quite a few strategic agreement on environmental protections and on many other things. And then the second thing that may happen is for the Chinese leaders to influence the United States, is to establish a stronger alliance with Russia to constrain the U.S. from its strategic maneuvers in Asia. And we also have already observed a lot of that. Not only when she took the office, he went to Russia to pay his first visit as the national leader. It's a very good sign of what he tried to do in this particular aspect. And then the third thing that he may do is to continue to strengthen China's military power to counterbalance the U.S. military presence in Asia and its possible intervention into the cross-strait conflict. So that's several things that China may do. And what China may do in the interactive aspect, one of the things that they may do is to structure a stronger framework for past 2016 cross-strait relations so that even with the change of the leadership from the KMT to the DPP, the current relations cannot be reversed. So they will try to push the things over to a particular threshold so that even with the change of leadership in Taiwan in 2016, things cannot be reversed. For example, to establish an institutional arrangement between the AR, the Hai Xie Hui and the Hai Ji Hui to have the institutional discussion and institutional arrangement between the two mechanisms. And the second thing that they may do is to initiate sensitive talks with Taiwan, such as the confidence-building mechanism and or even try to initiate political talks. And as we all know that actually by 1.5 track or even the second track of dialogue, the two sides try very hard to explore the possibilities. However, the chance for a very visible agreement to be reached in these two fronts is limited in the near future. The third one is try to have a breakthrough with Taiwan before the end of March 2nd term. Since March 2nd term, there are only about a little bit more than one year left. And I think especially after the defeat in the previous election, the chance for this to happen is also slim. But no matter what, a possible breakthrough is still, I believe, on Chinese leaders' agenda. And then what about the domestic aspect, both in Chinese domestic and in Taiwanese domestic aspect? I think the Chinese leaders may do is to establish a better connection with the new generation of leaders in KMT. Ma is on his way out and then the new generation of KMT leaders is coming in. And it is very important for the Chinese leader to connect and to build the new connections with those new generations of leaders in KMT. And at the same time, they also will try very hard to establish a better dialogue with the possible leaders in DPP. Actually, this has already happened. No matter as the local leaders such as Chen Jui and Lai Shizang of the Tainan city, they are also contacted by the Chinese leadership and try to build dialogue and try to build a better mutual understanding between them. And the first thing is to establish a stronger business, cultural and so on and so forth connections with various levels of Taiwanese society. And the fourth thing is to prepare to influence the result of the 2016 elections. Although they know this is very difficult but I still believe that they will try to do that. And one of the things that they may do is not to influence Taiwan directly but try to influence Taiwan's election through the United States. And so if they will be able to reach a better understanding about what the cross-strait relations should be with the United States and it is possible for them and try to convince the United States leaders to have an indirect influence on Taiwanese 2016 presidential elections. And the fifth one is to prevent its domestic race of nationalism from out of control. So these are a few things that the Chinese leaders will have in mind about both the Taiwanese and the Chinese domestic variables. The things that we will try to control and try to manipulate and try to influence. So if we go back to the previous line you are going to see that the China's actions can be actually demonstrated along the time in this particular illustration. So he will try to not only influence the leaders of the other side but also try to influence the domestic mechanism and try to influence who is going to be the next leaders. And he can also do this by influence the United States and have an indirect influence on China's domestic mechanism and then have an impact on who is going to be the next Taiwanese leaders and then have the impact on what interaction will be in the near future. So it's a very complicated loop of influence and interactions are illustrated here. Then if we have all this framework in mind then actually what we can do is to come back to you a little bit later. But this is going to be a very difficult table to read. But I'll explain a little bit what it is about. So actually what I did is to put all those three aspects of variables on the timeline. So the timeline is from 2013 all the way to 2017. And then along the timeline what you can do is to have all these three aspects of variables here. And then the... I cannot read so I have to read here. So for the first part is about the Taiwanese domestic factors and I operationalize all those factors as Taiwanese leaders' party position and Taiwan's dependence on China's economy and Taiwan's deterrence and defense power and so on and so forth. So then what I did is along the timeline I would put all those important events that represent the varies of those variables along this period of time. So for example the first one for example at the top of it is the DPP's former president candidate Frank Shea agreed with President Ma that the cross-strait relations is not international. The second one is that the DPP caucus called for the party to freeze independence charter of the DPP. All these are important events that represent a vary or a change in terms of the particular variables that mention in the analytical framework. Because as long as there is a variable if the variable doesn't vary then the variable will not have any influence on the dependent variables. So we have to find out when and in what way and to what extent that particular variable actually varies. So what I did is try to mark down all the events that would certainly happen in the future along that particular variables. And then I will put down those events that may happen or it's quite possible to happen in the near future. And then along the timeline and then you put all these three categories of variables together and put all the events according to the operationalization of those variables and then you will have these big tables. And then the funny thing is that it is not illustrated very properly here in this particular illustration in this table but on the computer or in front of a group of experts when we discuss about this event and try to come up with the predictions then this what we call a future events chart can be very, very helpful because we start to come up and down among all those different factors and then we start to have some kind of synergies of how those events might interact with each other or against each other and then what scenarios may develop out of a particular event and then how that particular scenario will be influenced by the later events that are surely to happen or quite possible to happen and then from that kind of exercise we will be able to come up with several different scenario analysis about what future may look like. So and one of the things that we pay particular attention to is what if 2016 the DDP leaders especially Miss Tsai Ing-wen was elected as the president of Taiwan what that particular trigger would trigger a series of events along the timeline. One of the scenarios that we came up is that Tsai Ing-wen after she was elected as the president he might have to do something to demonstrate that he's a little bit different from the previous president Mark he will act to demonstrate that he's a little bit more pro-independent than president Mark but however when the DPP government tried to do this she must in the expectation that this particular movement is not going to irritate China too much to the extent that Chinese leader is compelled to react in a very negative and assertive way. However what may happen along the scenario analysis exactly about that the same time China is going to have a very important national congress meetings and Xi Jinping is cracked down on domestic high-ranked officers and his political enemies will be in the highest peak at that time. So he is under the pressures not to give in in the across-strait relations and therefore he is compelled to react in a much more assertive way than Tsai Ing-wen would originally expected and then in that way then he will start to trigger a series of negative interactions between the two and then what will happen is that exactly during that period of time the military readiness in Taiwan is not in its best shape because in the early 2017 there will be a dramatic change in the military structures the military will change to a totally voluntary system and so for that part of time it will be probably one of the weakest point in terms of Taiwan's military readiness and then if you take a look of what the United States might do at that time it's also a political important moment in the United States because they are also facing the next round of the presidential elections and so this is one of the scenarios we should pay great attention to what I'm trying to say is that things may not go worse but if all these factors happen to turn to the words at that particular time then what I believe is that the mainland China my conclusion is that the mainland China's expectation that much hostile leaders may be selected by the Taiwanese voters in the 2016 and in the future may actually force Chinese leaders to compromise more with the current Taiwanese leaders so actually the ironic thing is that because the Chinese leader is expecting a worse situation in the future for example after the 2016 so actually for the next 12 months or something it may be ironically it may be a good chance for Taiwan to convince the Chinese leaders to give in more to compromise more on the negotiation table however the political linkage between the cross-strait relations and the respective domestic politics especially to the Taiwan's presidential election then can be a very powerful factor that will influence the future of the relations and if the previous scenarios that I just mentioned happened then although we will have much we will have windows of opportunities to now and the end of March 2nd term but after that there is a high possibility that China will pressure Taiwan in a major way if things turn to the worst and then at that time Taiwan will find itself less support by the United States and also from the military points of view it's less prepared and so although I don't believe that there will be a total military solution between Taiwan and China it is very very extremely unlikely for the Chinese leaders to go for the military solution against Taiwan because it's extremely difficult but I believe that for the first part of 2017 and even all the way up to the second part of 2017 Taiwan may have to confront a very difficult time economically, politically or even militarily and so if certainly this is just a warning and I hope that as long as we know that there is a cleat and then we will always be able to do something to avoid to fall down along into the cleats and as long as you manipulate things in the right way turn to the right turn and then things will be prevented and I think that's the main purpose for me and try to use this particular analytical framework and try to come up with a warning of what may happen after 2016 and I think I will tentatively stop here and see if there is any questions from the audience Thank you, thank you very much


Are you ready for a wild ride? One of the fundamental gospels of sports physiology just got turned on its head. Every exercise physiology textbook in the world just got thrown out the window and all because of beat juice. When athletes train, the reason they get better is they improve oxygen delivery to their muscles. Bodies in their lungs allow them to take bigger breaths, for example. Strengthening of the heart boosts cardiac output and blood flow. Your body may even start making more red blood cells to boost the oxygen carrying capacity of the blood. But the energy ultimately derived from that oxygen remains the same. X amount of oxygen gets you X amount of work, period, no matter who you are. As an analogy on the same gasoline, a Lamborghini goes faster than some lemon. But not because the chemistry of gasoline combustion is different in the sports car, it's just a more powerful engine. Similarly, we may have bigger muscles. We may be able to get more oxygen to those muscles quicker. But the fundamental energy that can be extracted from oxygen remains the same. Or so we thought. Researchers put eight guys on bikes and measured their oxygen consumption before and after a few days sipping two cups of beet juice. Before this series of experiments, there was no known drug, substance, steroid, intervention, nothing, that could actually increase energy extraction from oxygen. Yet this is what they found. The open ovals are the placebo, and the filled are the beet root group. After a couple cups of beet juice, they could do the exact same amount of work with less oxygen. They could do the exact same work with 19% less oxygen. Then when they ramped up the bike for an intense bout of what they called severe cycling, time to exhaustion was extended from 9 minutes 43 seconds to 11 minutes 15. Greater endurance with less oxygen in the beet group. 16% improvement in their time was only about four-fifths the oxygen requirement. In short, the beet juice made their body's energy production significantly more efficient.


Welcome to Aduhisi Village at Defcon 29. My name is Abhijit and the founder and organizer of Aduhisi Village at Defcon Confined this year. So what is Aduhisi Village? So just to give a quick intro about Aduhisi Village.  So I would say there is no globally agreed standard definition for Aduhisi simulation or emulation. So we are all approaching this concept in a different manner, right? We are approaching them in a different manner every time, right?  They are basically the same concept but I mentioned before they are being approached in a different way. So that's how people or organizations are defining them based on how they approach these concepts. Unlike a full scope routine engagement, Aduhisi simulation is a bit different. So the simulation exercises, they always focus on mimicking the actions of a well-known Aduhisi or well-known threat actor or tactics of an Aduhisi, right? So that is the basic element of Aduhisi emulation or Aduhisi simulation. Aduhisi simulation could be a continuous process. It would help organizations to deal with an actual attack or a threat actor in a good manner, right? So I would do one thing. I could compare Aduhisi simulation to martial art. Let's say karate for an example. So what is the purpose of a martial art? So that would strengthen your body, that would strengthen your mind in a continuous process, right? Finally, you get into a tournament or you get into a real life, maybe a street fight. So you could defend yourself in a pretty good manner, right? So if you are getting into a tournament, you can also attack your opponent, right? So that's the purpose of a martial art. So I would compare Aduhisi simulation exercises to a martial art. As I mentioned before, when you get into a martial art, the very first thing, you don't get to fight your opponent on your first day at Aduhisi or on a karate Aduhisi, right? So you get to the master will teach you how to take a fall, you know, how to fall on your back, how to fall on your feet, right? The very next thing would be they will teach you hardening exercises, how to harden your body, right? Then there would be attack moments.  Different karate moves are there, hundreds of karate moves are there, right? Once that is done, then there would be a sequence of karate attacks. They would call us, call it as katas, right? Here, we could compare the Aduhisi tactics as karate movement and the combination of karate movements, which is a kata, can be compared as attack simulation scenario, right? We know that different type of Aduhisi tactics form together to create an attack scenario, right? So let's take an example of what happens after you learn the karate movements and karate kata or scenarios. You get to fight with someone, right? So you will be getting a sparring opponent, a sparring friend. Maybe someone from the same dojo, some of your friends or a colleague. So you get to try out all these attack movements against your opponent, your sparring partner. So in that way, you can fine tune all of your attack tactics. Let's say your attack movements, you know, then you get to better yourself, right? You get to better your attack tactics or different tactics, right? Let's say the karate tournament is there. So what about karate tournament or kumite? So you could mention that as compared that to threat intel, power, Aduhisi, Aduhisi. How is that? That means we know, I mean, when he's going to be a tournament or who is going to be your opponent, right? So you get to fight against that, you get to fight against that person. In that case, you get to train to defend that person, right? Or you get to train yourself to perform better the tournament, right? So then take an example of a street fight or you are getting into a real or someone is trying to attack you on the street or something, right? So you could compare that with an actual routine engagement. If an organization is getting into a street fight without having proper defenses, without having proper attack tactics or different tactics, right? That organization going to get bullied pretty hard, right? That is on-site of it. So in that case, if the organizations are trained well using Aduhisi simulations, you know, trying to get, you know, the betterment of their different mechanisms, when they get into a street fight, they can defend themselves pretty easily. And maybe if they are trying to fall back or fall on their backs, they can come up pretty easily, right? So this would be a perfect example to explain Aduhisi simulation, right? So let's just say karate or any other martial art, jujitsu or boxing. When it comes to self-defense, they are all going towards a certain goal, right? Similar to that, adversary emulation or simulation or threat emulation, they are all going towards the same goal, right? The betterment of cyber-defense systems and, you know, betterment of new adversary tactics or TTPs, right? So that would be a perfect example to explain Aduhisi simulation to someone in an easy scenario, with an easy scenario, right? Finally, the goal of Aduhisi Village would be to build a strong community of researchers and organizations who are put into the new means and methodologies towards Aduhisi simulation or Aduhisi simulation tactics. Here, our community, Aduhisi Village can be considered as a character dojo, where all the offensive secret researchers or Aduhisi could come in, share their knowledge, collaborate on different projects and, you know, sharpen their Aduhisi tactics or TTPs. So that is our goal of Aduhisi Village. Then now we can go back to the agenda of Aduhisi Village this year. We are totally virtual at deaf content and there are going to be 24 talks, four different workshops, three panel discussions and an awesome CTF named Aduhisi Revolves. And our schedule is going to be starting from August 6-7-8 and the timing is going to be 10 am from morning to 8 in the night. Just take a note that our timing is based on PDT time zone. All of these talks and workshops will be streamed via our Twitch or YouTube channel just to make sure to follow us on Twitter, YouTube and Twitch so that you will be receiving the proper notification when we start with all these events. Also, one more point to add. All the Q&A sessions or interactive sessions will be held in Defcon official Discord server. Just make sure to join Defcon official Discord server so that you can interact with the speakers after every talk. So having said that, I would like to thank Jeff Moss, our village Goon Kevin and the entire Defcon community for this opportunity. I would like to thank our mentors, our supporters, our awesome volunteers and our sponsors Anand from NotSoSecure, Daniel from Zero Point Security and Martin from Cowork. And also I would like to thank the entire Aduhisi community, entire Hacker community who is going to be there at Defcon this year. Enjoy our village this year. Thank you everyone. See you next time.