The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis I posted the information about Tom O'Brien's time trading timing the trade Seminar on June the 10th. They could it's been to spend the whole day with him folks That's certainly worth every penny. You could possibly pay for it. He really knows stocks really well and he knows futures Well, too. So anyway, it's be great show for you to increase your trading knowledge I've got a little bit of a human interest story to tell you folks We are going to have a three-year-old this week He's got a birthday coming up in a few days and so they live in Philadelphia And so I he loves fire trucks So I searched around to find the very best toy fire truck that I could possibly get and I did find one It was about 75 bucks, which is pretty expensive for a toy But it's a fire truck that comes along with six other smaller fire trucks, you know support vehicles You know CMT and stuff like that it comes in a pretty good size box And they were coming home from a camping trip and the box was there on the front door And of course he realizes that his birthday is coming and crazy asking all kinds of questions and his dad says yes That's your birthday present, but you don't get it for a few more days. Okay, okay So last night they were at dinner and they were all having some fun They were watching a movie and about someone said where's Zaney the little guy He they couldn't find him anywhere and so they started looking for him and calling his name And they couldn't find him anywhere and Kelvin says I think I know where he is so they went up on the third floor Where the bedrooms were and he said he was in the closet folks in the dark closet believe it or not He's taking his little plastic scissors Okay, and he had pried away little by little little by little to get inside the box to see what was in the box And of course he had opened a little a little opening there of about six inches He was able to get his little hand in there and pull out one of the the little die-cast fire trucks and just then his dad opened the door and there He was sitting there in the dark and he looked up at his dad and said it was an accident When I heard that I said oh boys this could he's got to be an attorney when he grows up Anyway, I laughed so hard when I thought that he is so clever They speak both Chinese and English in the family so he knows both languages You know equally well, so it's really quite good. Let's talk a little bit about the markets one of them It's really in trouble folks. I want to Bring this up to you to show you You you most of you already know it and then I have a little confession to make here about something that I Did that I'm not too happy about anyway This was the 382 the other day if you remember we gap down here Yesterday we had a big three-point break off the high we rallied almost exactly back to the 382 this morning at 140 0.03 folks we got to 140 even and then we broke two handles to the downside the bond market is in big trouble folks I don't know whether the feds is playing with the market or it can't do anything about the market All I know is it's looking very very bad from that point of view by the way my guests today will be rich Anderson we're gonna be talking about the grains part of the day and especially the second half of the day So you don't want to miss that because we're having some really serious corrections here in these grain markets But that's not unexpected. We'll we'll cover that in just a minute Okay Now let's move on to something that I did and I want to explain to you Those of you that and I you know it's a hard explanation to do but just give me a second I want to talk to you about crude all folks if you remember yesterday our trade of the day Of course was selling crude up at that one Night one 1950 level that was right up in this level right up in here And it had a break you can see it has an ABCD perfect ABCD down right here folks That's a perfect ABC at that point. We have a profit between 119 and 114 That's a five thousand dollar profit So my assumption was and I said this out long before it happened none of this had happened yet So I said let's sell the 382 retracement, okay We'll put a stop right above the 50% and if we get filled we're going to give back a lot of money We'll still make around just a little under two grand, but we're going to be given back about three thousand dollars worth of Profits well, that's exactly what happened the market went up and never guess where I went to folks Exactly to the 61% retracement at 17 point one seventeen seventy four and then's broke another Dollar and a half almost two dollars down from that level The the frustration that I have is folks when I'm trading a 15 minute chart There is absolutely no way that I can get out the information What I think is happening compared to what could be happening to you So you've got to be able to you know manage some of this yourself And I told the folks you give if we write if we're right on this and this was a 382 That's a twenty thousand dollar move from the high here down to the low Which would come down at around one 109. I mean this is this is why I did it I mean I think I would do it over and over again But again, you know, I don't have any control over what the markets are going to do I can see them pretty clearly on a 15 minute chart But when you put the order out and you said well, this is what we got a look at that could take anywhere from 15 To 30 minutes and my goodness these markets can move around so much and that's exactly what happened We went right up to the 61% retracement and then back down again So how do I handle that basically folks? I shake it off. The reason why is and I'll show you the next chart That we want to cover is something we've been waiting for for a very long time here and that number was 1825 in the gold market. Let's get this up here So we'll be able to see it one second here Alrighty here we go Okay, now this is June gold now this is we put the trade on June was still the active month. We sold it short right there You'll see we had the big ABCD down in here. We were buying that low that big ABCD Right there at the bottom the market rallied up to the 382 over a period of almost two days two weeks And then it started its way down and you can see the perfect Gartley pattern right here in the June gold at 1825 and the low today was 1825 30 in market rallied around 25 bucks $2,500 it's given a little of it back But the way you handle that is if you bought that low you want to lock in at least a $500 profit So you'd run a raise your stop up to 1830 so that you protect $500 much like in the in the crude all you don't know which ones are going to work and which ones don't and The biggest part of trading folks is once the trade is over my goodness forget it and go on Go on to the next one. Look at look at tiger woods You know, he's been playing a little better than usual, but still very very poorly Do you think he throws his clubs in the in the water and then you know gives up? No, he just gets out another club and try something else and that's what you got to do In trading, you know, you got to shake off that loss or profit even and move on to the next trade That's the that's the one that you want to be paying very very close attention to So that's I that's the key to hold this whole thing is risk control And if you learn the patterns as far as what they should do as far as risk control You're going to be far better off than if you're sitting there You know trying to beat yourself up because you did something wrong Hey, you didn't do anything wrong in crude all you made just a little under $2,000 not many people can do that But that's neither here nor there So that's the psychology behind that. Believe me. I I do I feel bad about it? Absolutely not because we had a chance at something big They paid us a little bit and the other chance will be there soon We'll just wait for the next bus eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight In a time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded There's no better place to protect your harder and money than ain't gold Vista gold's flagship asset is the monttard gold project in the northern territory of australia This is australia's largest undeveloped gold project We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district This is a large-scale low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction Vista gold just completed the monttard feasibility study Which resulted in a seven million ounce gold reserve in a 16 year mine life All of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits This distinguishes monttard as an attractive Dearest pot ready development stage gold project Vista gold trades on the new york stock exchange under the symbol vgz You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon Sign up for steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at tfnn all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Okay, folks, I posted the chart of the euro if you notice here that we had the Cell signal up here at the 3a2 retracement right here after a two week rally We went right up to the 3a2 of the high that we made way back here In march, okay Sets up perfectly But what I wanted to show you is these beautiful abcd patterns as you can see here the last one Completing right down here, but look at this the market rallies for five or six days with about as weak a rally as you could possibly get And then breaks down that that makes these abcd patterns failures folks So that's why they're good for predictive purposes But they're also good for risk control and that's what the whole reason behind this is Once you go below this low right here after this five day rally That is not a good sign and as you can see We do come down Further and then we rally over the next two weeks exactly up to the 61 percent retracement now it's important at least from my perspective if you're going to trade The euro or any of the currencies, you know, especially the euro because it's so heavily weighted in the dow in the index for the dollar index What you want to be able to do is to watch the dollar index. I I don't trade the dollar index folks I I haven't for years. I basically trade the major cross rates You know that we all know, you know the pound yen swiss Canadian australian and british pound Anyway, this is what we're looking at here You'll see when the when the euro was topping yesterday You can see there is the 382 retracement of the low going back to march Right around that eclipse at the same price at point 382. So if it's a p8 if it's a If it's a 382 point in the dollar index coming down, then it must be a significant Number on the euro going up and that's what happened the euro was going exactly the 382 It took 10 days for the euro to make the 382 And now you can see the dollar index is starting to move And also the euro is starting to move the euro is up well over 1700 dollars now folks in a margin That's only 2000 so that's a good return on margin now The 64 dollar question am I adding to there? No, I'm not adding to there at all And the reason was is that I could only jungle so many balls at one time And believe me, I've got so many balls in the air. We had a big moving crude oil a big moving gold We covered the short stocks yesterday We're looking to you know, go get shorts to stock some more We missed the bonds today by three pips And the gold was uh, it was a really good one. So that's uh, You know and the losers if we have them, you know, they're going to keep them Keep them relatively small. This is the way we like to Trade it now. Let's take a look here. Now. That's basically, you know, this is the week of the queen over in the uk so It's it's basically a holiday week over there the markets are I believe either open part time Or even closed on thursday and friday But let's take a look here at the footsie since we've got this up in the air right now We'll get up here to take a quick look at the old footsie here They're getting ready for the queen. You can see the celebration in the apcd here in the uh footsie and so That's exactly what we've had so far Going on in the footsie, but they are it's a holiday type week. I mean, it's not an official holiday, but Thursday and friday, I believe it is uh that the markets are closed or only open part time They're open regular time now, but there's really really light volume people just take the whole week off Much like they do the first week in february in china, which is uh the workers week I think is uh is what they call it now this going back another reasoning for my uh for putting on the The extra short in the in the crude oil selling it back on a 382 retracement And i'll show you why this is the uh This is the largest etf for crude oil energy. It's basically energy etf But you can see here We have the big abcd form right up there. You can see the 1.618 expansion Yesterday's volume big volume day to the downside That signifies that something's happened in that oil market at least from the the uh etf standpoint So that is and you can see uh a beautiful three drive to a top period over the last Three weeks just absolutely beautiful abcd So you've got a three drive to a top pattern. You've got a double abcd And you've got this larger abcd So you had three things to tell you that hey, this is where you want to play from the short side And as you can see that's what happened. That's what I was looking at along with the looking at the uh The crude oil contract as we said the crude oil should top at around 1954 It went 40 pips higher and believe me folks those 40 pips were over in 10 seconds The market went up and down so fast you wouldn't even believe if you hadn't known your stop was there And our stop was uh about 30 points higher than that you'd have never known why you got filled But that's neither here nor there So as we see this market topping now My strategy will be i'm not going to do anything more on the crude today So i'll be watching the next day or so to see what my next level is going to be And that's what I do. I move on to the next trade And not worry about whether it's going to be a winner or a loser Or anything like that all i'm trying to do Is to find a situation where I don't have to risk very much To see if I can make a dollar and I do that by watching 15 minute 30 minute an hourly charts and believe me I find a lot of them every day. Do I take them all? Absolutely not. I'm looking for three or four good ones And those are the ones that I would like to be looking at today now The only thing that I did differently today is that I didn't sell the 61 percent retracement up in the crude oil because I actually had fallen asleep at the at the Monitor here this morning because I was up very early this morning around 2 30 Working on a position in that crude oil that looked like it was going to be absolute perfect It sold right up to the 382 backed off a thousand dollars folks So, you know, you had a huge profit and it ended up Not being so much huge. So that's That's the way it goes. You can't you you can't think about the the trades that go by because those are over folks You got to look at the future and what's next and what's next is we've got a big buying opportunity coming in these grains And when we come up to the break here rich anders are going to be chatting with us We're going to go over some of these grain charts to let you folks take a look at it So I think we're making some new lows here somewhere And that is in the dow Jones. Yep. And also wow boy or boy you talk about a market that is under pressure folks This wheat market is flat out under pressure like you can't believe It's uh, how much is it down today?  That's what I want to see. Hold on here Get this one up and we'll be ready to go Okay And okay, you can see it right here. We'll have rich on at the break here This will still start out talking about the wheat market so we can get a pretty good idea Of what it means stop and think folks. This was three dollars a bushel Higher just a little while ago. Are you kidding me? Shut the front door and raise the rent Well, let's move on here to the next one here and we'll see what's going on hold on one second And I'll get this up And uh, we'll be right back with rich anderson Anderson capital management If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every monday morning I published the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xa u hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report Sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today Tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigeresses for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den You can look over the shoulders of tom o bryan and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger tv programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other tigers and tigeresses as they share trading ideas News analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends The tiger's den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Tom o bryan has just announced a live timing the trade webinar friday june 10th from 9 a.m Until 2 p.m. Eastern time Join tom o bryan for five hours of live education as he teaches you his trading methodology Right from his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system in this live webinar Tom o bryan will be teaching you his entire trading system including quality volume abc structures Fibonacci confluence zones cause and effect swing points and more We will be limiting this class to 40 attendees So please do not delay and reserve your seat today for this special live event with tom o bryan All attendees will also receive a physical copy of his book the art of timing the trade an $88 value Mail to you along with the free month of his daily newsletter market insights a $169 value For all the details and reserve your seat today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Okay, we're back folks. We're talking with I believe rich anderson anderson capital management Rich, how you doing? Good morning larry Rich There's a bloodbath going over on the wheat market. What's going on over there, buddy? well, um You know, uh, remember when I was on And the olympics were about to end and I said rushward in february I certainly do remember gotta be reading between the lines what they But basically what they did is the russian signaled that In exchange for a relief of the economic sanctions they would allow free trading of The black sea free transport in the black black sea The problem is that uh, you can't trust them I mean when they were trying to evacuate people out of the maripole that keep lying But they released a a commerce telephone conversation between edaeron of turkey and pudin And that's what caused this break now that the funds have been getting out massively You know, they're down to mid december of last year's Of open access levels in the major yelk wheat corn beans in the products oil meal Yeah, they look at age 74,000 contracts last week. So this has been going on for some time if you look at the bear spread That they'll tell you that it's been going on But if you look at the cash market, you know, we might have gone down But cash wheat's trading 20 percent over the board Wow, it's not like you can buy that board price and get delivery Tell tell the folks what yeah Tell the folks what that means folks when uh, tell the folks what that means rich when it's More cash wheat is saying over the board.  Well, the the actual end users that actually need that are willing to pay a whole lot more than the board price Uh, they need it now. Yeah, that's right. They need it now. You're right And and and yet Let's take let's take opening up the ports the ukranians in order to Ship anything out of the ports that they still hold mainly Odessa They'd have to get all the mines out of there Well, that would just allow the russians to be able to invade at any time. So that you know, they're not going to do that Supposedly I look for in between the lines Supposedly a ship left maripole, which the russians now control with a load of metal for russia today It could be propaganda. Who knows? I mean, you don't even know if these ports have electricity, you know the transportation to the ports Uh, ukraine has the first shipment Up wheat to romania It's being loaded To be shipped overseas. So it has to rail to romain mania and then load it onto boats It's it's making for a big mess Uh, the russians are doing fine because they've got the high oil price Even with all these sanctions, but it is pinching. So there's there's another thing Putin obviously is feeling the pressure because he made this, you know, conversation with erdogan and Then another thing that I saw was two legislators of the russian One of the russian meetings Challenged basically by saying, you know, this is this is hurting us badly. We need to stop this No one had And these are led to you know, these are People that are hold office. No one had been willing to challenge the president up to this time I thought that was significant I think that tells you that there's ground support To push back at Putin and that maybe he's losing his grip and he understands He's losing his grip But you know, even if this thing were over today, you know, you got all these minds to clear you got rails to fix You've got roads to fix Now on top of that down argentina the argentine farmers selling Their beans at about 25 slower than last year because they're afraid of inflation I mean, I have a friend who works in brazil They get quarterly cost of living increases in brazil. I mean, it's it's just crazy So we're going to have these high oil prices Keeper and and the crop the grain markets were Up on the other thing was getting the crops planted. Well, the crops are mostly getting planted And even in 2019 when we had trouble getting the crops planted and we ended up we didn't have as much acreage as we thought The market still sold off until we got the report on june 30th And then we really won't know what's been planted in india Russia and china until july or august so those are uncertainties So you've got to be careful let the markets flush and rinse And then see some kind of a setup And there will be another opportunity, but you don't stand in front of liquidation Don't try and catch a falling knife That's you know, I mean between the lines what I read out of russia and in turkey And what I know, you know what they say and what you can actually do are Two whole different things because you just don't turn the switch on and all of a sudden you're exporting grain out of the ukraine Yeah, well, that's one of the reasons why we're technicians rich That tells us whether the markets are going to go one direction or not So I posted a chart in here of a beautiful three drive pattern that we had over the weekend In the july soy beans. It's just absolutely perfectly symmetrical and the beans have broken well over 70 cents Almost a dollar a bushel actually in two days, which is a tremendous amount But I I'm with you rich I think you got to be looking for a place to buy these because This is just someone that has been over leveraged or wherever the funds might have to have happened You know if they have to start liquidating and once this liquidation is over You got to start looking for a place to you know, where the charts are telling you you have value that that's what I think I'm I think long term we're looking at inflation. It's going to last several years Just doesn't get over overnight. That's for sure Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. But you know take a look at the 2019 grain charts and And you know, we have corrections at this time of the year until you get verified acreage of this crop and that crop and and uh, you know, Minneapolis wheat Now I don't have any quotes right now because my wife's on uh, using all of our bandwidth for an investment meeting on a very large endowment But um In any case the Minneapolis wheat I heard had been down. Well, you know, that's one of the markets that I've watched very closely Because they you know, they've got issues and it I think it's going to be interesting, but You've got to let a week or two pass. You've got to let this market flush out calm down and then you Take your positions with intelligent risk Yeah, rich hobby. How big is the Minneapolis wheat market compared to Chicago board of trade? You know what the fractional it's nothing. It's nothing, you know There's like 20 guys that sit behind screens and they call that the floor It's it's not a bad but that but that's where the you know, that's one of the biggest opportunities I see I mean, this will be the lowest planting in North Dakota On record it looks like Yeah, I mean they you know Burke had a blizzard what a week and a half ago out north. Yeah Yeah It was 85 degrees in Denver the next day they had six inches of snow or something like that my daughter said I mean just crazy. Yeah, it's you know, that's This is uh, you know this and they grow wheat in uh, Colorado also So that's that's what's going on but the funds are just getting out and You know If you want to establish positions, you let the market settle down take a look at how it took you know weeks In 2019, you'll see kind of how they think shake out and then how they reappear again I don't think this thing is over but it's it's shaking a lot of people and if you're not controlling your risk Amen to that brother. Amen to that. Hey rich Anderson Anderson couple of men's but always good to talk to your rich Stay on the green side of the grass buddy You bet. Okay, we'll be right back folks eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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We're back We're going to have is our guest tomorrow stan harley of the harley stock market letter will be our guest on thursday And on friday.  I mean he's just uh Just been really just doing great. So he's going to be our guest uh on friday I posted the chart here of the soybean market. That's a perfect a bcd folks in time and price Number bars up number bars up. You can see the three drive pattern And that's why i'm a technician folks, you know, I call rich to give us an explanation of what the heck's going on Uh, but frankly, you know, it doesn't make any difference You have to trade what the charts are telling you to do and that's what I try to do You remember just two three weeks ago three weeks ago We had wheat trading limit up at thirteen dollars a bushel Now it's ten dollars a bushel and you can't find anybody that wants to buy it Hello operator. There's something wrong with this picture You know, this is why you know pattern recognition swing trading gives you some slight advantage now. Is it Uh an unbeatable advantage, of course not we lose all the time But the thing is we go right on to the next trade And that's what we're waiting for us to see which patterns are going to work and which patterns aren't that's what it's all about You're not going to be right a hundred percent of the time One of the greatest frustrations in life and one of the absolute tony robbins talks about this One of the keys to absolute discouragement and failure is to try to please everybody That is not going to happen folks So you've seen that in your family or whatever you want to look at.  Whatever it happens to be whatever pattern it is or methodology, you know, moving averages work Uh, stochastics will work if you use them in conjunction with risk control all of that stuff will work You just got to find one that you feel comfortable with and that's what uh, that's what you're looking at Now I said yesterday that I'll be watching these grains very closely, you know for a potential buy But you know, we're uh after the big down move yesterday, you know I have to wait Let me just show you folks just to give you a rough idea of how How big a break we've had in this wheat market now just get this up here So you can see it here. You'll be able to see it easy enough there. You'll see it right there this happens to be a 15 minute I know it's a four hour chart You can see here about a bing here was limit up limit up limit up limit up And then look at this down down down little three eight two rally right here As you can see, there's your first three eight two rally right there There's your second three eight two rally right there And here's where we're headed folks down about another 40 or 50 cents in the wheat before it finally reaches some type of uh A bottom from a technical standpoint by then maybe the cash wheat in chicago Selling it a discount to the futures But it already is because the futures are behind the market because the cash wheat people still need that When you want to start making bread you've got to have the wheat and if it's not there You've got to pay up for it. Okay. Now. Let's go over a couple other of these This is a this is going to be a guardly here and it's it's very close because we just broke the 77 level Let's get the chart up first layer so everybody can take a look at it. This is soybean oil Lot of affinity for this contract folks because that's the one that Got me back in the game back in 1975 This was the type of pattern that we had in 1975 folks I had not traded for a year all I did was study the guardly book And all other kind of charts just find out what I could use and I said, ah, this is what I like abcd Setting at either a 61 percent retracement or a three eight two or seven eight six Give me those abcds all day long and I'll take them So I would be buying there and then I sold them on the d-point that went up But here's where we are right now. You'll see the level we're looking at here is around 75 and change We're 76 60 or 70 when I checked just a little while ago So we're about a penny away Which is close enough But you want to wait till it gets to that level and then if you buy it you risk one cent in oil Which is $600 and then you'll be able to You don't get back on the game plan because I really believe folks that we're going to see $20 soybeans for the first time in our lifetime this year because we need a bumper crop just like rich was saying Just to stay even in the world and anything that gets bad here from the united states because we export so much Is going to be a mini disaster for the rest of the world That's where hunger and all this other stuff comes from and that's not good You know, that's the main thing so but there's a profits to be made and okay You'll think well you're being you know, you're basically taking money away from the the poor people No folks when you're doing this I'm acting as an insurance broker That allows people to hedge whatever I did if I buy something the part the farmer puts on a cell hedge So that I'm acting like an insurance broker and if I sell it he puts on a buy hedge So that's what it's all about. It's nothing about being you know, if you want to be philanthropic You know give it to your church or whatever you want to but This is a business of making money and and when you're doing this speculation is a way Of mitigating risk in other words spreading the risk over a whole bunch of areas And that's that's what you're doing. You're intelligent risk speculator. That's what I like to refer myself as But that's what I am actually now. Let's take a look here This happens to be the new crop soybeans I want to show you this because this is this this is totally different than a july soybean chart That had the three drive to a top the july soybeans were the ones are In the market right now, but you'll notice on this one right here We had a little bit of a butterfly pattern up in here Barely made a new hide and you can see we backed off well over 70 cents. We're still dropping So what we're waiting for now Is to see what the next uh Next support's going to be along with the pattern that matches up Well, it's only one day into this folks. You certainly can't uh, you can't draw any conclusions on that Now one of the one of the things that we did on the air last friday when I was on was we were watching A soybean meal the the beeper went off at that time because that's when I I had to go to the uh other machine Sneak over there put the order in but you'll notice here when you're looking at the soybeans We were right there folks at 434 the high was 436 a two dollar risk and it's already made well over two thousand dollars in one day So that's what pattern recognition can do if you believe in it and that's a 382 and it hit it twice So, uh, that's neither here to that the problem is if you sold it you had to hold it over the weekend and of course it opened unchanged on uh sunday uh tuesday night when it opened and uh Like that would be monday night when it opened and of course it traded all the way into tuesday So that's it. So that's what we're watching there uh in the soybean meal We'd like to see some more of the correction as we get closer to it. I'm going to issue a special report You know showing what I think are the best and best possible trades with the setups that we're looking at You can't be long all of them folks you got a picky their wheat corn beans oil meal, whichever one you want to pick And uh, you can do it, but if you realize that then you've got to spread your risk over each of these and not You know if you're going to make a big play that's what you're going to have to do for sure But for speculation purposes you want to pick one because if your long corn and wheat and beans One of them is going to work better than the other and you've got to try to pick the one that you think will be the best so That's what our job is is to find out which one you think is the best. How do you find that out? Buy the strongest sell the weakness That's what they say in the old textbooks and believe it or not folks the textbooks are correct. Hold on one second here Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel And become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman and your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis After all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos And data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Okay, we're back folks and we have a caller believe it or not. I don't know how he got through mike. How you doing? Yeah, I have a secret code larry. I got through through that I'm looking at this cornmeal chart and it looks like from the low on mid-may up to the high of Yesterday or the day before It's made a 618 retracement of that move just now. Am I reading this correctly? Yes, you're absolutely correct It stopped exactly at the 61 percent retracement what you have to wait for now because that 382 was so powerful You know, we could if I if you were in that trade, you're up well over $2,500 so you want to book some of that? And let's say let's see only did one contract what you have to do is you've got to cover The one contract here and then hope that you get a little 382 retracement off of this last range here To get back in and maybe you miss it. Maybe you have to sell a little bit lower When you're risking $300 and the market gives you two grand mike, you know, that's a 7 to 1 risk-reward ratio And those are dream trades. So you've got to book some profits Yeah, it's really nice. So so you're saying that you want to wait for it to come lower or Come down when I six one away. I had myself This is what we were looking at here for last friday. We were watching this pattern Well, I was risking originally $400 now. I've made seven almost seven times that So I'm willing to book that and put that in the bank because you know You don't get that type of risk-reward in two days at all Yes, okay, you know, I mean look at look at the euro if you did the euro Which is basically the exact same pattern the euro is up almost two grand already You can see how quickly when these patterns work, you know, they give you certain amounts of money But, you know, you you're never going to get the absolute low tick or absolute high tick mike So once that trade is over move on to the next horse and you know hop on and write it to the best you can because You don't know what's going to happen next. You're never going to know that Okay, I'm looking at getting into this On the long side and you can just waiting here Yes, you're certainly want to rate the the main reason for waiting now Is it the first of all the very signs of 3-2 now you've come down to the 6-1-8 But we did it in a matter of a one day That's a lot of selling Mike. So you've got to be patient. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Larry more to follow There'll be a video coming on in a day or so. So hang in there, buddy Thank you. Larry. I know tomorrow folks. Stan Harley will be my guest


Ymlaenwch, ddweudon, ymlaenwch i ddweud ymlaenwch hanes ac gurachyn yn ei ddwyllio'r hositaleidol, ac mae'n ddweud y bwysig o'r hoteil yna wrth y cyfrifiadau lleolol mae'n gweithio'n mynd i ddweud a'r cyflos o'r bwysig o'r bwysig o'r Llyfriddur ac ymlaenwch cymdeithasol â'r Cyfrifolio Symposiom, Cymysatio'n ei ddechrau. I'm going to speak about a subject that seems to me strangely neglected, namely the effect of people's ideas or conception of history on what might be called their way of being in the world. And I'll start with a very obvious example. If you truly believe that Jesus Christ was tried, crucified and was resurrected on the third day, you are likely to have a very different approach to life from that which you will have if you believe no such thing. The claim is an historical one for either it happened or it didn't happen. In fact, all major religions make historical claims. If you believe that the Quran was dictated directly by God, for example, which is to say that it is the very word of God, you will have a very different view of life from that which you will have if you believe no such thing. And even Buddhism and Confucianism, which might be considered philosophies of life rather than religions in the strictest sense, make historical claims about their founders. And also, if you believe those claims, you will act very differently from how you will act if you don't believe those claims. Well, man is a political animal, as Aristotle said, and that means he's also an historical animal.  History affects them, but they have no idea of how history affects them. And I will tell you about my experience in the hospital in which I worked, which was in a poor hospital, a hospital for poor people, I should say, not a poor hospital. There is a slight difference. Who I used to ask about their historical knowledge. And these were people aged between 16 and 25. And many of them could not give me a single historical date, not one. They had no idea of any history whatsoever. And I thought really one of my patients was exceptionally clever because he deduced, when I asked him for the days of the Second World War, he deduced that there must have been a First World War. But until then he hadn't suspected it. Well, if you think about the way people are in the world, if they have no historical knowledge, whatever, you'll realize that they live in an eternal present moment. And this is not a good way, in my view, to live. They are prey to unrealistic comparisons. They compare their state with some kind of utopian state that has never existed and can never exist. And they cannot compare their discontents with any other discontents. They have no historical knowledge. They would not know, for example, that the infant mortality rate in their country has declined from, shall we say, 90 in 100 years, 90 to 3. They would have no idea of that. And they don't think biographically. It's not only that they don't think historically. They don't think biographically. For example, I was asked to do medical reports, people who were involved in a class action of drugs which they claimed had ruined their lives. And it was claimed that the drug companies had misled doctors by not telling them about the addictive properties of these drugs. And this was a claim, this was a part of their claim that was probably true. What was not true was that this had ruined their lives, the taking of these drugs had ruined their lives. And when you went through their lives biographically, they realized that their lives were ruined very early on and often by the decisions that they themselves had made. And they found the whole process very distressing. And they did not think biographically. And this is unfortunately in Britain, and I don't know about other countries, this is very common. Historical truth claims can have profound effects even on history itself, irrespective of their truth. But what of recent history? Here I'd like to mention an example of someone of whom you will not have heard. At least I hope you won't have heard of her. Her name is Alice Bouillet. And before I tell her story, I should like to conduct a brief poll on a historical matter. I want you to put up your hands saying yes to one of two propositions. The first proposition is that the First World War was fought over matters of deep principle. And the second is that the First World War was not fought over any matters of deep principle. So how many of you would say that it was fought over matters of deep principle? And how many would say that it was not fought over matters of deep principle? Well, the knows have it. And my guess is that the majority of the population of all countries that participated in it, that is the present populations, would have the same opinion as you on that matter. And I'm again, I'm not concerned with who is right on this, because I'm just saying that is what people think. That's what people believe. It's not a question of whether they're right or not. Now I turn to Alice Bouillet of whom you have not heard. And the reason I hope that you have not heard of her is that I've just written a book not yet published about unknown or forgotten writers who are interned in Pellasher's cemetery in Paris amongst whom was Alice Bouillet. And of course the premise of the book is that you haven't heard of them. So I would be very alarmed if you had heard of them. Well, she was the wife of a military doctor called René Brouillet who died in the course of the war. The doctor died. And she had been married to him for only a few months when he died. And most of those few months he'd been away at the front. As far as I know, she never married again after the war and died 44 years after his death. Her position would have been that of hundreds of thousands of French women after the end of the war who could not remarry because there were no unmarried men of roughly their age to marry. Now I think it's probably fair to say that Alice Bouillet when she married her husband had wanted what was then a normal married life. That is to say she would have wanted to have children and to remain with her husband for the rest of her life. Neither of these things was possible for her, of course. And though I think she was religious, there's very little information actually that I've been able to find about her life. And though after the war she became a novelist and travel writer with no great success but which implies that in some sense she recovered from the loss of her husband and found a purpose in life, yet I think it is reasonable to surmise that she carried within her a permanent and ineradicable sense of tragedy, not theoretical but lived through personally and experienced personally. Now in 1927 she published a remarkable book titled Heroes Without Glory that I'm translating from the French title. In this book she memorialised the 1,600 French doctors who had lost their lives in the war, quoting their letters and diaries written during the war, including those of her husband. And they make the most remarkable and I must say moving reading. They speak without any hint of boasting of the most incredible heroism and self-sacrifice of a kind which we would not find possible to reproduce and possibly it was a good thing that we couldn't reproduce it, but nevertheless we couldn't. Let me give you an instance of the heroism of which I have just spoken. Heroism that was a general cultural phenomenon, not matter of individuals. It wasn't just individual heroism, it was the heroism of an entire population. In 1915 there was a severe epidemic of typhus in Serbia which killed half of the medical profession in Serbia at the time. So half of all the doctors in Serbia died during that epidemic. The French decided, of course Serbia was an ally of France and the French decided to send a medical commission to try and eradicate the typhus. And they asked for 100 volunteer doctors to join this commission. A very dangerous commission because half of doctors of Serbia had died during this epidemic. And so it was a very hazardous thing. Instead of 100 doctors volunteering, they had 3,000. So 3,000 people volunteered to go to perform a duty from which half of them might have died. In fact it wasn't anything like half, but that's what they might have thought the situation was. Well, the commission succeeded in eliminating typhus from Serbia but then had to escape when the Austrian army invaded. The sufferings during their retreat from starvation or from freezing to death are described without complaint in the letters of the doctors who underwent this purgatory. And one of them who suffered absolutely amazingly was later killed by a shell in Calais almost at the end of the war. There is no hint of resentment in anything that any of these doctors wrote or any reference to the futility of their sacrifices or those of other people or the sacrifice that they, many of them, were themselves soon to make. Well, how was this state of mind possible? First, most of the witness cited in the book seemed to have had religious belief. That is to say that life for them had a transcendent purpose independent of or over and above their lives themselves. Thus their deaths did not deprive them of all that they believed that they had, all that made life worth living. Note that I'm not saying that they are right, that they were right in their beliefs. I'm just saying that's what their beliefs actually were. Second, they were deeply patriotic. They believed, and again I do not say whether they were right to do so. Most of them would, most of us would probably now say that they were mistaken, that they were fighting and risking their lives for their country and for something more than their country. They thought that they were fighting for civilisation itself. Though most of us now probably think that the war had the most disastrous effect on European civilisation as a whole and was the catastrophe of catastrophes. Now, of course, it could be objected and it would be a perfectly reasonable objection that we do not know how Alice Weyer selected her evidence or edited the letters and journals that she quoted in her book. There is thus the problem of representation. How far are her quotations representative of the real and lasting opinions and feelings of her subjects? The problem is even greater if we try to extrapolate her selections to the French army or to the population as a whole. The doctors are clearly of a certain social class, if not of a class in themselves, of course a highly superior one. What function did the book that she wrote serve in Alice Weyer's life and mind? I'm now surmising because I don't have any documentary evidence to fall back on, but I think my surmise is a reasonable one. The labour involved in her book was immense. It was absolutely vast labour, which is probably why it was published only nine years after the end of the war. But in focusing on the patriotism of her subjects, without in any way lessening their sufferings, on the contrary, she's very clear about their sufferings, she was in effect persuading herself that her husband's sacrifice, which was also her own, was neither meaningless nor futile. But on the contrary, was noble and full of meaning, for to think otherwise that it was meaningless and futile would have been unbearable for her and for hundreds of thousands of other people like her, perhaps even millions, not only in France but in Britain. The enormous number of war memorials in France to this war might be construed as attempts to persuade the grieving nation that the sacrifice of a generation was not just a meaningless slaughter, but was a war of principles. Of course, Germany lost even more people or men than France, though a shade fewer disproportionately. But to have died for defeat is very different psychologically in its consequences from having died for victory. Be that as it may, I don't think many of us, if we'd been around in 1927, would have tried to persuade Alice Breyer that her husband had died in vain 12 years earlier, even if we thought that this was true. To have done so would have been cruel and unfeeling. The truth, it has said, will set you free, but it can also make you miserable without any prospect of consolation. Now Alice Breyer was reflecting on very recent history, which had affected her in a very immediate and personal way. However, at the time she wrote, the attitude to that recent past was changing or had changed. Her heroic vision, which must have comforted many thousands of widows like herself, was soon to be superseded almost completely by a total revulsion against the war and its slaughter, at least in Britain and France. What is interesting about this, perhaps, is that this revulsion occurred ten years after the end of the war, not immediately after the end of the war. In Britain, for example, there was a sudden spate of often brilliantly written anti-war memoirs by those young men who had participated in the war and had survived it. Three very strongly anti-war plays were produced in London in quick succession. They were very good players and they had great success. One by a man called R.C. Sheriff, who had been severely injured in the war himself. And another two, one by Somerset Maugham, who had served as a British intelligence officer in Petrograd, trying to prevent Bolshevism from getting off the ground and who was not personally involved in any fighting. And Noel Coward, not a playwright normally associated with political gloom or political subjects of any kind and who had played no part directly in the war. And it was because of this revision of attitude to the recent past that the Oxford Union passed its famous motion this house would not fight for king and country. Well, many of us read history, of course, that is more remote from us than was the First World War from Alice of Wui. And yet, I think it's fair to say, when we delve into history, we are often seeking meaning or lessons for the present. The past is fascinating in itself and yet we seem unable to prevent ourselves from seeking analogies and guidance from it in the present. As I said, man is not only a political animal, he's an historical animal. And I'll give an example that I came across recently, another French book called 1938 by a philosopher at the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris. In this book, the author has gone through the press, the entire press, he says, of 1938, which has actually been digitised and you can find all French newspapers on the internet straight away. From his searches, he draws conclusions about the state of what might be called the French condition of its soul today, this year. Actually, he wrote the book in 2018, so it will be 80 years later exactly. His conclusions might be wrong or they might be right. The question of how much may be concluded from the press, even assuming that he's read all of it, doesn't bother him at all. And as a bookworm myself, I'm probably inclined to overestimate the importance and influence of both books and the written word in general. My life revolves around the written word now. But if I were writing about the year 1938 in France in an attempt to understand Zeitgeist, I would probably do the same as this author did, or something very similar. The use to which he put his findings was what most interested me, however. He suggested that France in 1938 was in a situation not very dissimilar from the one in which it finds itself today, namely one of increasing authoritarianism, but also a proto-fashism. One of the pieces of evidence in favour of the latter assertion is the increasing hostility towards refugees and illegal migrants, both in 1938 and 2018. And there's clearly some kind of analogy, the constant being the enormous hostility to a very large influx of migrants. But for the author's analogy to whole, there have to be no very significant differences in the nature of the migration in the two periods. And this reveals an underlying assumption that a migrant is just a human unit, that one is much the same as another, or that it matters not at all what cultural baggage the migrant brings with him. All that matters is how the receiving country receives the migrant. Well, it's true that the hostility in 1938, assuming that the newspapers reflected it correctly, was often fuelled by some very nasty political ideas that no one would wish to be associated with now. But the fear of being associated with them is so great that it prevents many people from looking at the current problem of immigration in the face. Of course, one may question whether the attitude to the present determines the kind of history one finds, or whether the kind of history that one finds determines one's attitude to the present, or some combination of the two that are mutually reinforcing. But the fact surely is that attitudes to the past have a powerful influence on how one sees the world. That is why the dispute over the meaning of history in the United States is both so important and so bitter. What is at stake is nothing less than the future of the country and who is to rule it. The study of history for young people, after all, escapes indoctrination only with very great difficulty. In this matter, children are as near to blank slates as it is possible for humans to be. And it is possible to make them believe almost anything. On the one hand, the traditional account of the origin of the United States is heroic, a struggle of a people to free itself of an oppressive royal government. It scarcely matters that by the standards of any existing government today, almost anywhere in the world, the colonists were very lightly governed. History moves forwards, not backwards, and the colonists, those who took part in the revolution, were not to know that they were extremely lightly governed by future historical experiences. Like most people, they compared their lot with an ideal. Those who imbibe this historiography are likely to retain a basic faith in their country, which whatever its blemishes retains a large measure of good. Opposing this version is a narrative that the founding of the United States was a bit like an original sin in the Bible. It was founded on and in slavery, much as the expulsion of the Garden of Eden was brought about by the eating of the fruit of the tree of knowledge. And the revolution was an attempt to preserve slavery. How is it, asked Dr. Johnson, a conservative thinker who was genuinely and profoundly non-racist, that the loudest yelps for liberty come from the drivers of negroes? All American history can be read with this mark of cane in mind and is little other than the continuation of oppression, racial, sexual class and so forth ever since. My point is not to adjudicate which version of history is correct, rather to point out the very different attitudes to present day reality and even to life itself that those who hold to one or to the other will have. And here it is important to note that since most of us are not historians, we shall be inclined to hold the view of history that we were taught as when we were young before we move on to things other than history. In my case, for example, I had no historical education after the age of 15. Perhaps that shows. Thus, the struggle over the teaching of history in the schools is a modern tribute to Ignatius Loyola's dictum that if he were given a child till he was seven, he would show you the man, albeit that the modern indoctrinators require to keep control of the child for longer than certain years. Let us suppose for the sake of argument that these two schools of history or two attitudes to history are equally well founded. There are few narratives of history that you cannot support by finding data in support of them, confirmation bias in short. After all, history is compounded of glory and shame, triumph and disaster, advance and regress. And I could give an example from medical history. Medical history used to be written by retired doctors as a form of ancestor worship in which they recounted the biographies of great doctors who advanced medical knowledge. But then the sociologists got control of medical history and then it became more or less a history of the idiocies and the crimes of doctors. Now, both of these things are true, but it's very difficult to look down two ends of a telescope at the same time. Now, suppose you belong to the school which emphasises the achievement or achievements of your country, you will have a very different outlook on life from that which you will have if you belong to that which emphasises misery and crime. In the first case, you will have pride in your country and you will try to contribute something constructive to it, or at least you may do so. Many reforms that you suggest will not be utopian. Your aim will be modest improvement. In the second case, you will have a penchant to disparage, destroy and undermine.  They will seek the chimera of perfection. You will have a tendency to resentment that is the most beguiling of all emotions. It's almost the only emotion that can last a lifetime that is almost never constructive, but confers certain satisfaction and you keep it going. It allows you to feel a certain moral superiority to the world. You will probably be in search of political power, perhaps believing that it is the only thing worth having. I think increasingly we live in a kind of niche world in which power is worshipped to a degree that I don't remember it having been worshipped. This is not to say that the first attitude does not have its pathologies. It can make people complacent, foster ignorance of or contempt for other country's achievements and so forth. But if I had to choose between the two pathologies I suppose I would choose the first. Of course I would prefer that there were no history-induced pathology at all, but it seems to me that those with the first attitude are probably better able to incorporate or absorb countervailing evidence into their history and thereby avoid disastrous ideological schematisation than those with the second in which you may disagree with that. Of course your personal history effects or at least can affect your historical outlook. If you have been the victim of some gross injustice, you are likely to project that injustice onto the whole of history irrespective of how representative or unrepresentative your experience was. And then that history will reinforce your sense of grievance in a kind of infernal feedback loop. As Amelia says in Othello, trifles light as air are to the jealous confirmation strong as proofs of holy writ. The same might be said of people who resent. Trifles light as air are to the resentful confirmation strong as proofs of holy writ. What history, in my view, ideally should teach is a sense of proportion, which is perhaps the most important to all intellectual qualities and virtues. But alas, it seems mainly now to be taught to encourage monomanias of various stamps and we live in a regime of vulcanised monomanias. Thank you very much.