The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. OK, folks, our guest today at the break will be Shane Smollin. I'll share a few things that we're looking at today in the markets. This is the S&P. We made our high in the middle of the night last night at 59.25. The high on Monday was 50.66. So we missed that by just a little bit. Then we had the report come out right in here. And then, of course, the market came down. But how did it come down, boys and girls? There's your A leg right here. There's your B leg right here. And there's your C leg right here. And your D leg says it should have come in at 50.15. And it came in at 50.08. Is that what it says here? No, it came in at 50.12. We missed it by three points. So you can't count that as an ABCD Canyon. Well, maybe you can't. It's only 40 handles, 50 handles. After that, you see the market moved up and then back. Now, this is a three minute chart. The difference was a monthly, daily. I just want to show you the numbers, folks. From the first pullback, you see it stopped at the 382, which told you that it's got a probability of going higher. And it did go higher. You can see if it had done just an ABCD here, we went considerably higher than it was expected to stop there at 1.618. So you ask yourself, how did it know it was going to go above 1.618? You didn't still have started going above it. And then all it did was come up and make a guess what? A perfect 786 retracement right here. And now we've stopped and we're right down. We're bottoming right here. As we speak right now, we should be really close to the 382 if this is any good for the rest of the day. These are the two bars you've got to be afraid of because they're pretty stiff. They're just like these. We could easily break this and then start to go lower and close lower on the day, which would not be a good thing for Sunday because this market should close higher. The day before a holiday and President's Day is Monday. Let's take a look at the gold market. This is in tribute to my good friend, Jim Twentynman. Those of you that were in the gold, we had our stop at 2050, the old high was 2020, 20. And it didn't get there. There was the old high right here. Our stop was right there. Just missed this, but look at this. I said, if it backs off one more time, I said, cover it. I was just looking at this. This is the artificial intelligence program that Jim and I worked on for eight or nine years when we were in Pismo Beach at the trading house. We bought a MIPS computer that actually bought two of them to run the numbers and this is all it was doing. I've told people what this thing is, but by golly, nobody pays attention to it, which is okay. I can understand that too. But the key is it should have started down here. You see that when it doesn't go down from there, all that means is that the cycle that the program was looking for, I'm just gonna show you what happens. I'm just killing time, folks, because I am glad to see the weekend come because I need a little bit of rest. I hear that the thing is up now. This is when we started to change. It moved from bearish to bullish. And let's see who's in the house with the lucky thing. And we've got Michael from Niagara Falls about in Nivedia, one of my favorite stocks. I'd have no idea what it is or what it's selling for. Michael, what can I help you with? I'd like to speak to you, Larry. I can get the chart up, hold on just one second. Nivedia, N-V-D-A, do you see anything on the daily or weekly any Gartley patterns? Anything there that tells you that we got a top? Yeah, there's a top coming at $15,000 a share. It should be in on Monday. Hold on, I'm joking, Mike. Just bear with me here. I wanna get it up here. Is that based on your $10,000 secret software with the 100% win ratio and go and draw down? It's been sold out for two years, Mike. You're gonna have to wait to turn. Here's the weekly chart. You tell me here, now we've got a potential now if you believe in ABCD, and this was just upgraded to go to, I think, $12 or $1,300 a share by one of the firms today. I saw that in the air, but just the ABCD here tells we should go to $4.77, so we're pretty close. See, we're only $34 if you like ABCDs, and this is a weekly. So there's your pullback. You see, it only pulled back to 30%, and now it says $4.77. So, you know. You're serious? Yeah, that's what it looks like, $4.77. We're trading $4.37. We could be there today, so just be patient. Let's see how it's... An elevator drop? Or you're looking at it zigzag down? Oh, Mike, that's part of the secret sauce. I can't give all that out. Mike, I have no idea. It's no price involved. No, I can't. I've been sworn to secrecy. It just can't be given out. And if you believe any of that, Mike, I still have two shares of the Niagara Falls initial issue, so you don't want to get involved with that. No, I just look at ABCDs, and it has a possibility of going $4.77. It's actually not up must today, considering that it was upgraded to, I believe it's $12 to $1,400, almost double price, I saw that they upgraded it too. But those analysts don't watch TFNF. No, this was on Bloomberg, my friend. This was on Bloomberg. Bloomberg, they don't watch TFNF. Oh, don't they really? I thought that they did. They don't even call you for an interview, do they? When was the last time you were on Bloomberg? No. When was the Roosevelt administration? 36? What was the apparent... I was only on Bloomberg a few times. I used to be on CNBC a lot during the early 2000, up to 2000, but then I was just a hassle to go down to the TV station down here to get all cleaned up and have a clean shirt. I only have one clean shirt, and I didn't want to use it every time, so I didn't go into it any after that. Anyway, if it gets to $1,400, have a nice weekend. You what, put your limit minder on at $7.77. And the slot machine, see if it's gonna hit there, okay? You won't hit, Terry. Okay, thanks, Mike, for calling in. I really appreciate it, buddy. Okay, let's move on to the next one. We've got to get back to our layout charts, which is right here. I wanted to go over the crude oil, too, because we've had some good action here in crude oil that we were looking at today. I will get up here, and I've got to get this up on a little bit smaller timeframe, because here's what we were looking at today. Hold on one second, I wanted to show you. Yesterday's high, right there, if you remember, we went right to the old number right here. You're gonna be able to see it. There it is, right there, right to the exact 786. Last night, we came down right here, stopped right at the 61% retracement, and then we made an A, B, C, D. I still think it's on its way up to this level right here. But at this spot right here, it was very, very important, because we took out these lows, and if you went back and looked at this on an hourly chart, there it is, folks, right there. You see that little low right there? That was a perfect retracement right here, and that tells us we've got an A, B, C, D, still going on. Look at the 382 off of this one yesterday, folks, while we were on the air. Oh, no, excuse me, this was in the middle of the night in the video that I sent out. I said it's gonna have pretty good support here. At 76, it got down to 75, 57, and then it just took off. Of course, if you didn't buy here, once it went above here, that you knew there was something wrong. Look, over here it went, so. Hey, let's take a break.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018, and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit tfnn.com and try Mastering Probability, 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. 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Head over to tfnn.com right now to join thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing. Whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies, and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. Our seasoned hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just $1 and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. And remember, at TFNN, we're so confident in the value we provide that we are for a 30-day money-back guarantee on all new premium newsletter subscriptions and services. You have absolutely nothing to risk, so why wait? Tune in live to Tiger TV and transform your trading journey because when you know better, you invest better. Join us and experience the difference today. TFNN Educating Investors. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, got the bonds up here, folks. We went short here two days ago right here at 1-1908 and we're trading at 1-1807 right now. We're looking for at least this level right here around 1-1705 to 1-1605. This is gonna be the first ABCD in this new bull market. Well, that's true, excuse me. We had another one right here. Okay, that was the first one, this 3-8, we missed that by four ticks and then we had to rally up to the 786. So this is probably a rally in a bear market. That's my guess. I have to tell you this funny story about Jimmy. I've been talking to his baby sister, she's 63. So I think she was two years old, yeah, I met Jimmy in 65. Anyway, when she got married, she was going to take her honeymoon to the Kentucky Dirt because they liked horses and stuff.  And so she called me, I think I talked to her three times in 55 years and she called me back then and it was 1987. And she said, do you know anything about horses? I said, a little tiny bit. And she said, do you have a horse in the Kentucky Dirt? But I said, yeah, I do. I said, there's a trainer named Charlie Whittingham. He was the father of trainers in the LA area, Hollywood Park and San Anita. And he was the dean and he taught all these young guys that are now old timers how to do this business. And he said, I'll never go to the Kentucky Derby unless I got a chance to win. And that year he had a horse called Ferdinand written by Willie Shoemaker. And he was in the one spot, which is the worst spot in the whole Derby of 20 horses.  He'll probably be 15 to 20 to one. And he went off at 17 to one and he went wire to wire. And she never forgot that. I never did get my commission off that. I didn't have the heart to tell her that was only the third winner in 47 years for the Derby. I had Thunder Gulch one year. And what was the other one that I can't remember? Oh, anyway, there were three of them during those years. But I get second in place, second and third once in a while. But I'm pretty good on horses that are first or second time winners because they're being trained to run. And so if you follow the pattern of who the jockeys are on the horse. So if a jockey moves from one horse to another and the jockey is better than the other jockey, that tells me that the, well, someone told me this, that the jockeys agent knows that that horse is better. And so they want to put him only on the best horses because that's their ticket.  Now they do ride dumpy horses occasionally, but you want to get as close to the finish line as you can with somebody. So watch what horses are being ridden by the best jockeys. And you want a good jockey at a good price, then you got a little bit of chance and only bet like two days a week or two days a month or whatever it is, which you can do just, it's hard to make a living at it unless you really know numbers and really follow the patterns of the trainers and the horses. And that's a full-time job, just like sports betting is.  All right, let's move on to the next one here. We got just a few more minutes here. I wanted to show you the gold, why I was really nervous being short the gold here. We'll get this up here on there. I think it was hourly we were looking at it. Yep, there it was right here. We sold it up here at this 382. It was a 382 off of a number back here. And it didn't go down. I mentioned in the video, I said, keep your stop right above this high. It never got there, missed it by a half a dollar. Then it had the break. When it had the break, I had the video out. And I said, look, if it comes down one more time, I said, you want to cover the position. And I said, try to cover it. And it got down to right where we thought we might go. And guess where that was? From the low to the high, just $2 or $1 away from the exact 61% retracement. And I mentioned that if we exceed, let's just do this together, because this was John Hill's Yum Yum trade. When you have a big move up and a big move down like this, okay?  And once you exceed 78% of that, look out. See what happened? Boom, away it went. No ABCD here. Well, you could probably find a small one. Let's just double check just for kicks and giggles. No, there's not even an ABCD here at all. You see, it's just straight up. Because once you, the rule is on a Yum Yum, if you have a big move down like this, okay? And you exceed more than 78%, chances are they got some shorts trapped and they're getting ready to run this puppy to the upside and that's exactly what it did. So we're gonna have plenty of times with these markets because they're gonna be really exciting. Let's see if the S&P held that level that we were talking about. Yep, it sure did. It stopped right there where it should have. So we'll see if it's gonna pop up. There it is right there. Let's, what we're looking at, a three minute, four minute or something like that. Yeah, there it is right here. Stopped right on the money right there. So we should be moving a little bit higher from that level right now and get below that. Then it might be a little bit different. Okay, now one I haven't looked at that someone asked me about here is the live cattle. I've been, last few days have been a little bit overwhelmed and preoccupied with other things. But here are April cattle. Let's see if it made that retracement back that we were hoping for. Here's a 15 minute and we'll take a look at, oh boy, it did it ever, son of a gun. I would have lost on this one. Glad I didn't watch this one today. So I was watching, waiting for a three, oh, if this was a three, a two retracement then I would have been okay because I would have had my stop above that. Let's just double check, see if it was. Yeah, so you make the three, a two retracement. Look what happens when you retrace more than 78% folks. See that? There's that yum yum trade again right there. That's part of the secret sauce that we have here at TFNN 24 seven only available to subscribers. This was from John Hill. John passed away at the age of 96, two years ago. He still had trades on. No, he didn't really. He couldn't remember very much but if you put a chart in front of him he could tell you what pattern it was and what it was doing. But to remember his name, not so much. But look what we have going here. Now that I look at this a little more closely we have, ooh, how do you like this one folks? A, B, C, and D at the high of the day which was 188 and this was 187.96. You'd have a half a buck profit in it if you had been following it. But that's ABCD. It's not always the way it should be but it's the way it might be because what it is is what it shall be and what it shall be is what it could be and what it could be is what it is. And the words of Billy Ray Valentine. Here we are here with the November beans folks. I love the November beans but not yet. This is the first time that we had a situation where we had a good pattern folks. Mini trade, eight minute, but look. Works on any timeframe. There's your low. There's your ABCD coming in right here at 45. It's now trading a nickel higher. And this tells us that we're probably gonna get up to this level right here. That's my alert level to start watching it again. And I think we're gonna be able to buy these a little higher possibly. We had that big report and it's not doing much with that big report. So that's a positive thing. So we're gonna be watching these beans closely. Believe me, I've got November beans on my radar. I've got December meal on my radar. And I got December soybean oil on my radar. We wanna be on those because those led me to the Promised Land folks back in 1975 and 76. I was lower. I had to look up to see whale poop. That's how low I was, but I came back okay and never look back. So I'm not planning on looking back either. So that's what we're looking at. Hey, we gotta take a break here. We got the main dude coming up. Man, our Shane Smolley and theWolfTrader.com should be entering the room anytime now. And I think he's up to date.  More fun at tfnn.com. The gold report. As a precious metal gold is still king. 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Go to tfnn.com, then hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com, then hit watch Tiger TV. For all the technical analysis, this is known as a temporary technical failure. Shane is rebooting. Didn't say if it was his wife or the computer, but he's doing something like that. All right, let's move on here to the November beans here. I wanna show you the longer term picture here of why I like this thing. Okay, here's what we were looking for. If you remember, we thought it was gonna bottom in here, 57. We took a 6 cent loss. It's now trading down into this area right here. Let's move this up a little bit because what's happened now, I don't think I'm getting... Yeah, we're trading, we're up a little bit from this level. So we bought this right here at 57. We got stopped out of it right here. So we're still from where we got out of it. You see this just making a small ABCD pattern right here. So we're not even close to getting ready to go long miss on a bigger timeframe. I might have missed something here. Oh dear, if I did, I'm gonna kick myself in the shins. There's your ABCD leg right here. Boy, I hope that comes in at 57. Wow, that came in at 42. Why did I do... Oh, I was just doing this. I didn't see this way back in February. I would have had my order at 42 and my stop below here. And still would have got me probably, but I'm watching it, folks. What I'd like to see, and we'll wait till Shane gets here, but this is what I'd like to see. I'd like to see this. Now this is my hope, okay? This is what I wanna see. I'd like to see the market do this. I remember this is an hourly chart. So there's the first leg of it right there. That's good. Now all I wanted to do now is to go up and do another leg like this. Okay, and then I'm gonna stop right here. Now if I get that pattern, you see what I have now is I've got a beautiful one, three, five. Let's figure out when that should come in and we'll put somebody on the air that knows something about this stuff. That should come in on the 19th, 20th. Hey, we gotta look at this Monday, folks, because if this thing pulls down, the 19th is the holiday Monday. We wanna look at it Tuesday because if it's backing off into this area right here, it might be a good spot to go long when you stop below here. You're talking about seven cents. You're talking about a risk of $300 to be a new crop soybean farmer in November beans. So we wanna be watching that one on Tuesday. I put that on my calendar here to pay very, very close attention to it, okay? So that's what we're paying. We're still waiting for Shane to come on. They're gonna give me a little bell to ring when I hear him coming on. Let's take a look at the July soybeans. July, and those are the ones that bailed me out many years ago. So here's July beans now. They're not doing anywhere near because we have the hourly chart up. Let's get the hourly chart up. We're seeing the same thing. See, it's actually weaker. You see how it pulled back? And here is the, I think the Shane man is in the house. Shane, how are you doing? Hello, Larry. Good afternoon. Good afternoon to you.  We don't wanna miss any time. So just start running. We're ready. Sure. Okay, so today I have a lot of people asking me about interest rates because the Fed said they were gonna cut and now we have all these inflation reports that are a little bit hotter. So I thought I would prepare a presentation that I have done. I did it a while ago about long-term interest rates. So we're gonna talk about that. I'm gonna look at three different types of interest rate cycles and just kind of give you the combined forecast just to maybe see if we can get a little bit more resolution on what's coming up here into the future regarding interest rates. But before we get started on that, I just wanna remind everybody who follows us with the geomagnetic storms that we are coming into a time in the season now where there's gonna be an increase in the geomagnetic storms. So be on the lookout for that. I mean, February, March and April are significantly higher months here. And this does correlate to the annual, it inversely correlates to the annual cycle of the Dow Jones. So it should be very interesting to see how this market behaves. This is the annual cycle of the Dow Jones and you can see we're here into February, March and April. It is a downward cycle now. And that correlates inversely with the solar storm activity. So for those of you who like to watch the solar storms, it should be more interesting now coming into the next few months. We had a really quiet period, but now this is increasing. And like I said, that does inversely go with the Dow Jones cycle. So just wanted to share that with everybody. And just to lay out a disclaimer here, we are talking about cycles here. Cycles are average values. It is not the same thing as trading obviously. And just to remind everybody, we do have to go with our trades and our service. We have live accounts, live auto trading accounts that track the trades directly. So I just wanna just make that distinction there. So we're talking about cycles today, but in addition to that, we do have, like I said, the live accounts that match. And that's one of the things that we try to do here is that when we post the trades on the service, we wanna make sure that they're being posted and managed like managed accounts auto trading, exactly the trades that we're doing. So just wanna make that disclaimer that cycles are not the same thing as trades, but it can be helpful to give us some perspective, I guess is the right word on where this could be going based upon past history. Okay, so there's three cycles that I wanna look at today. So two of these are gonna be, I'm gonna look at two astro cycles here. We're gonna look at the Jupiter cycle that we're gonna look at the Saturn cycle. And then I'm gonna do what's called a spectral analysis. And all this is is this looks for a peak value based upon an annual cycle. So it could just be, it's any annual cycle, it could be 9.2, 8.3, 6.1, whatever it is. So I'm gonna look at it from that angle too, just like a regular cycle. And then if we have time at the end, I'm gonna get into the the bio rhythms that I have. That's a specific system that I run to look at some of these, the long bond. We're gonna look at how the long bond might react. So again, these are average values just to give, let people know these are average values, not the same thing as trading. So just kind of keep that in mind. This is just to give us a perspective. And of course, things don't always go to plan with the cycles. Okay, so the long-term Jupiter cycle. So Jupiter follows a cycle of about 12 years around the sun. And so what we can do is we can correlate how the interest rates have behaved with Jupiter as it orbits the sun. And so this gives us a nice 12-year cycle to look at. And so what we have found with this Jupiter cycle is that the 12-year period gives us four waves, specific waves. Now this is not like with Elliot wave or something like this, it's always five waves up and three waves down or whatever it is, corrective patterns. That's not how this works. This is just looking at the actual cycles as they appeared. So you'll never get a cycle that looks like an Elliot wave or anything like that. They're gonna come up with their own specific cycles as these interest rates have moved through time. And what we're gonna look here, we're gonna look at here, it's just like I said, we're gonna be looking at these interest rates. And so wave one up just completed. Currently we're in wave two down and then wave two completes in 2025, okay? So we're in a downward cycle. So let's take a look at this. So these are, we're looking at interest rates here and this is going back, I'm gonna go back and just look through a few years here. This is 2009 to 2020. So this is the four wave cycle of this Jupiter cycle. So like I said, it has wave one, wave two, wave three, wave four. And I picked the starting point here at the low. So the low's gonna be here. So the wave one's always gonna be pushing up like this just to give us a perspective. So this is kind of how the cycle goes. And then the red here, these are the interest rates as we've moved through time. Now, everybody knows, we just saw this increase in interest rates. So this is the 10 year interest rate here. So this is the recent cycle here. This hits this low right in COVID. So one of the things that I wanna point out to people is that these cycles are, they're independent. We'll get back to that in a minute. We're gonna take a break. We gotta pay a few bucks for a break. We'll be right back folks, change point. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. 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Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand, tfnn, educating investors. Biotech is booming, but for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course, trade LABU or LABD, Directions Daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact Direction Shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, talk to me, Shane Smollion, wolftrader.com. Please continue. Oh, sure. So this was the tenure interest rate cycle. So you can see here in 2020, this was the low that came in on this particular cycle. This is the Jupiter cycle. So this was the wave four here at the bottom. And then as we moved up here, this was a peak here at wave one. And then the next low is gonna be coming down here into this, this is the first gonna be the wave two into here. So we are at a crest on this particular cycle. And so if we expand this out, this particular Jupiter cycle actually will be declining until 2032. Now this shows a low coming out here into 2025, somewhere out into here, probably later part of this year. And then it just kind of chops higher with the larger drop again, showing in this 2030 to 2032 period. So according to this, we should start to see some relief coming on the interest rates in spite of these recent inflation reports that have been running kind of hot. And I do look at a lot of these real time models. One of them is true inflation and it's running around 1.4, 1.3%. So it's likely that these numbers will cool off. It's just, we're seeing a few bumps here. And there's a lot of these inflation items that are sticky and a little bit tougher. Once you get down under, down into 3%, it gets harder for it to come down. Now the next cycle is a 29 year cycle. So this is a longer term cycle. So I like to look at different timeframes. I don't just want to look at the same timeframe over and over again. I want to look at a medium term, a long term, a short term to see if they can overlap at any given point. So this is a 29 year cycle. And this particular cycle is eight specific waves. Wave one is the largest surge up. This is how I just defined it. This is how I started counting it. Then it runs sideways until wave six and then wave eight takes it to lows. Wave eight completed in 2020, sorry, wave one completed in 2023 and wave two heads lower until 2025. So we're seeing kind of a similar situation here. Now this is this longer term cycle. This is 29 years here. And so you can see here that starts here. This is going back to 1990 here, 2000, 2010 and 2020. So you can see that this starts with this big shoot up here and wave one. And then it just kind of chops lower here in this 29 year cycle. And then you get to this wave seven here and then wave eight is this biggest draw down into here. Now notice that wave eight also came during 2020. That came during the COVID lows. So that was really interesting. So what we had here, we had just an overlap of these two different cycles and they both hit those lows at the same time, which is really interesting. So COVID was a very unique event in the world, the world basically shut down. So a lot of cycles had to overlap at that point. And so you can see here that the 10 year interest rate versus the Saturn cycle, you see here's the low again in COVID here and then it shoots up here. We're into this wave one again. And so this is ending. This has already ended and then we are going to be coming down on this particular cycle also until right around late 2024, 2025 and then it goes up again into 2029. But the point of this is both of these cycles are in agreement that the interest rate should be coming down at least on the short term here. And we will see how that goes. We're still waiting for the rate cuts. And like I said, now it looks like it's going to be pushed out until summer. But the interesting thing about this is that they're both in agreement on that low. And it would make sense if you have such a plunge in interest rates, you would have to see many of these cycles essentially overlapping on top of each other. Now, in addition to the Jupiter and the Saturn cycle, the two planetary cycles, I just looked at like a specific cycle, like a regular vanilla cycle, like 8.3. So I did a spectral analysis. What a spectral analysis does is it tells you, you look at these different terms and it creates a spectrum and basically what it does, it looks like this and it finds these spikes across time that finds the best particular cycle period. So basically this one came in at 8.32 years. And so this is the one that I'm going to look at now. So this is a little bit shorter than the Jupiter cycle. Cause remember when we talked about the Jupiter cycle, the Jupiter cycle was looking at 12 years and then the Saturn cycle was looking at 29 years. And so this cycle is going to look at the spectral is going to look at 8.32 years. And so I'm trying to look at, I want to look at different time frames. I don't want to look at different cycles that are all right around 12 or all right around 30 or all right around eight. I want to look at different cycles. So that's how we come up with this specific cycle. And this particular one is 8.32 years. It's a four wave cycle. So similar to the Jupiter cycle, it's four waves. Wave one is the largest surge up and this one's completed in 2022 and it's heading lower until 2025. So again, we have similar themes here going on. And then the larger low comes in 2028. So this one suggests that we are going to be headed down for the next four years, just on balance for the next four years. So the way that this cycle looks, if you go back to, now that I went way back, I went back to like early 1900s on this, as long as I could go on this particular cycle on some of these. But anyway, so we go 1995 here, going up here to 1997. This was the wave up shooting up here. And then wave two was down into 1999, then wave three and then wave four in 2003. So you can see the red line here is the interest rates kind of following this path. So again, these are average values. I mean, you can have deviations from this of course, it's not going to give you the exact lows, but kind of gives you a perspective of, you know, what is the history of this as we go through time? And then if I kind of overlap this out into the future, you can see here that we hit this low, we hit the fourth wave low in 2020. So once again, this one hits in 2020 right at the low. And this one actually made a crest already. Now the interest rates are still holding up here, but this is showing us heading down into late 2025. Also then a little jog up here into 2026. And then another one coming down into this 2028 period. So this one suggests that we are still going to be headed down here through this period. So after I looked at these three different cycles, what I did was I combined these cycles into like a composite pattern. So what I'm going to do here is I'm going to show a superimposed graph and that superimposed graph is going to show the peak in 2022, 2023. And then the superimposed graph is going to show that the interest rate cycles are now in decline for a prolonged period of a decade or lower with particular lows coming in 2024 and then 2028, the larger low in 2033. So on balance, it looks like we have hit peak interest rates according to these cycles for a while. So the next chart here that I'm going to show you is this is, so this is the interest rates here versus all of the cycles here. So for example, this is the interest rates here. This is the 10 year interest rate right here. You can see it's been falling and falling and falling. And then we come into this low into here, right? And so this low into here, this is the 2020 low. This is the COVID, this is 2019, 2022. This is right into that COVID low. So you can see it's here. And then if you look here, this is our Jupiter cycle here. This is the Jupiter, this is the Saturn. By the way, this is Alfie's program that I've did this with Alfie LaVoy for anybody who's interested in this air software. And then this is the 8.32 year cycle. So you can see all of these cycles hit at the exactly the same time. So they all kind of came together. So this was kind of a very bizarre convergence of cycles that we saw that super low. And then on top of it, after they hit this low, they all pushed up at the same time together. So this was very unusual. If you look back at these graphs, they almost never overlap, okay? They almost never overlap into here. But right here, they did.  We have to pay a few bills. Sure. I have to pay a few bills. We'll be right back, folks, with Shane Smollin, RoveTrader.com. Stay tuned. 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Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. We're back folks with Shane Smollett and WolfTrader.com. You have two and a half minutes to wrap her up, my friend. Thank you, Larry. Okay, I'll do my best here. All right, so what we have here is this is the 10 year, this is the composite. And you can see here, we had this overcompensation to the downside when they all agreed. And then we had an overcompensation to the upside. And now we should be returning to more of a kind of a normalized environment. And if you put these all together, if I can read the tea leaves here, if you will, put all these cycles together, essentially it's showing a push down into this 2024, 2025 region, another low around 2028 and then a final push up into 2030 and then a final low into 2033. So ultimately it seemed, according to this, we should have seen a peak at least in the 10 year interest rates for a while. In other words, because we had the overcompensation to the downside, then the overcompensation to the upside here, now we should be in a period of declining and just kind of returning to normal here on the interest rates. So that's my summary on the interest rates because so many people had asked about it. And I just wanted to kind of give my best forecast there based upon these cycles. So. Any time in the next six months there'll be a top in the stock market? I feel that the market is at a cycle highs now. They're at the cycle crest right now. So I get more specific forecast to the subscribers, but we are actually on the 15th, there was a very important quadliner high. So there was major cycle highs right around the 15th. So we just passed some major important cycle highs. We'll see if it follows through, but the cycles are essentially pushing to the downside now. Okay, listen, thanks for joining us my friend. We'll have you on soon to keep those cards and letters coming in. We love hearing from you. Thank you, Larry. And if anybody wants to join us this Saturday, we have a webinar on Saturday, eight o'clock. And then Sunday we have a Zoom session where we talk about our live auto trades. We have live accounts that we review each Sunday. And then on Saturday, if you guys just wanna come out, we have different topics each week and then you can join the discussion in YouTube. We'd love to see you there. And so hopefully we'll see you there. Shane, thank you very much for ShaneSmollion.com, Wolf Trader, and we will be on the air on Tuesday, holiday on Monday.


Are you kidding me? Where is he at now? Hey guys, real list of game here today we're going to be playing 330am at the floater cemetery Which I don't know what Mr Krabs is doing out here with the shovel By the looks of it, it looks like we're going to go graveyard digging We all know Mr Krabs is that type of greedy person So let's begin with this And by the way, this is the same guy that made 3am at the Krusty Krab 6am at the Chambakey Courageous Curse Man, you make so many awesome games Oh, let's watch this cutscene Mr Krabs, pulling up in his car Hmm, floater cemetery I heard a big treasure buried in some of these graves You know, I'm in a hurry to return home That hatchling slasher fell behind Oh god, she's chasing him There's no way he'll be able to catch up I think now's the perfect time to go graveyard robbing So we're right, he's going to go digging some of these graveyards Ok, press tab to view your objectives To-do list Dig up Smitty's Werber and Matt Jensen's grave Oh, that's the guy with that one's hack Where you like put the drinks on the side and you drink it My friend what it was called, man Dig up Wally the walrus' grave Who's Wally the walrus? I don't remember that guy Dig up Captain Grave Dig up Mr. Puff's grave Plunder all 3 muscle limbs Leave the cemetery, ok We have quite a big list to clear up Ok, controls I think they're basic controls W, H, D, S, left shift Spread eater interact to the crouch Ok, we can crouch here Because there's a pro tip when being chased Oh god, dude The flying dachman is here Oh god, he's already chasing us We haven't even started the game We barely even started Are you kidding me?  Ok, so we have to be quicker, man We have to be quicker, Mr. Krabs Look at the flying dachmans over there I see you I see you, man So I don't know who God is exactly They had like a red light Oh god What was that? Oh, that's the hatchling slasher So he did catch up to us And he's in the cemetery with us Oh man That is not good Uh oh Oh, he's right there Does he see us? He does not see us Man He disappeared Oh no Now we're getting chased by someone Who are we getting chased by? Ok, nevermind The music stopped So that doesn't mean we're getting chased anymore Come on, dig it up faster Mr. Krabs, I know you're quicker than that Ok, nice So we got Mr. Puff's grave out of the way Oh no The hatchling slasher is chasing us Get away, man I mean no harm I just want to take all these people's stuff from the grave Uh oh How do we lose this guy, ok It's actually like a tombstone or something We need some cover We'll be able to lose him Dude, he's back there How is he still chasing us?  I don't know who that is But let's be careful and uh Not get near him Ok, I see something glowing here We must be able to do something Oh, the mausoleum So that's one out of three We need two more of these Ok, what is this? Just a giant pile of rocks Oh god, no Wait, that's a hatchling slasher And the flying Dutchman We're being chased by him Oh, there he is I was about to say we're being chased by him But I can't see where he's coming from Please, leave me alone Man, you're just making us lose my track Ok, so we entered this way But look, there's an owl up there For a clan because there's no owl down here Is this guy kidding me? Come on, give me a break Ok, he's over there now Ok, so we entered this way I did see another mausoleum back there So let's head back that way The way he held is so funny Ok, here's one of them This is going to be two out of three Are you kidding me? Where is he at now?  Ok, he disappeared This is our chance to strike Dig it up, come on Those bats sound creepy They kind of sound like rattlesnakes So, wait Oh, God, the flying Dutchman I hear your man Ok, so there's a mausoleum here Let's just try to do the outer part first And then we'll stick inside the inner area Once we're done collecting all the outer stuff Oh, he definitely broke into something Now, Mr. Krabs is always up to no good deeds Uh-oh Slingy slasher and Mr. Dutchman are over there So we don't want to hit that way There's another mausoleum here Ok, so that's two out of three If we don't get caught breaking into this one Hopefully we don't We've got two out of three Ok, so let's head back Wait, where am I? Oh, God Oh, no, the flying Dutchman Hopefully it doesn't turn Keep going straight Oh, look, there's that other guy I don't know who that is But we've got to be careful with that guy Oh, what? Uh-oh, something happened to this nail It got him upset Oh, man, Smitty, Webb and Jackson Whatever his name is, let's dig it up, man Give me that hat I know we're here for that hat Cool We don't want to attract any attention to us Shades by the flying Dutchman Oh, there's a mausoleum back here Yes, I know you're the flying Dutchman, man How is he still chasing us? He's super slow Ok, can we lose him back here? Can we lose him back here? Ok, we're hiding behind a rock Ok, nice, we lost him Ok, so that actually does work If you take cover behind something, you'll lose him Ok, so I did see something back here that we had to collect Oh, man, I think we got too far away from it It was somewhere over here Oh, no, there's that other guy Let's hide right here Oh, my God, he saw us No, ok, the mausoleum was back here We missed it Oh, great, not the flying Dutchman Wait, where's the guy? Ok, what's he about to say? We can't even see him anymore How is he chasing us?  Oh, the flying Dutchman Oh, his ship is right here The flying Dutchman's ship is here And it is crashed It is wrecked Oh, no, wait, maybe that was Captain S's ship Oh, no Dude Could you cut me some slack, buddy? Please let me go Could you tie it back here? He shouldn't be able to see us anymore Because of the grass, I guess not, man Oh, no, the flying Dutchman's over there Dude, come on We just got rid of this guy now The flying Dutchman's chasing us Ok, we're going here, he won't be able to see us My God, that guy's so quick So it looks like he's hovering The hatchling is slasher Oh, so when he disappears That's when the bats fly around, I see So wherever you see the bats That's where he might be near The fly, I mean the hatchling is slasher Oh, no, we have to go back to that grave It was on the... No, my God, are you kidding me? Run Run, Mr. Krabs I know you got tiny little legs But you can move pretty quick, man Alright, there you go, we got rid of him Ok, oh man, it doesn't cross out Which you have gotten I feel like he should cross out the objectives you already got Because it would be much easier For example, we already got the Mausoleums But... And they're not crossed out Ok, I think we're...   Somebody come get this guy Can we hide here? No, we can't No, we can't, please don't, no, no No, get away from me Oh, no, that other guy's over here Ok, he didn't see us We can't lose this guy Come on, we're so close to all the graves over there Ok, we lost him This is our chance to... Oh my God, are you kidding me? They are not giving us a break Ok, there he goes Please don't come this...  Rest in peace to Ali Oh my... Every time I'm about to grab this Grave keeps coming back I will be chased by both of them Isn't that great? Oh my God, no, the hash leaky slasher appears somewhere here Maybe I should make them chase me Dude, the three of them were back there That is not fair Maybe that's the last grave I need That's why it's impossible for me to grab it Hopefully it is, man Now I kind of lost the sense where that grave is at Oh no, there's another grave right here This guy's still chasing us? Great, now that... Now we're getting chased by both of them Oh my God, he's still chasing us You can't even see us Ok, there you go Finally, we get some peaceful time Where was that grave at? It was somewhere... It was somewhere over here Oh, there it is Flying Dutchman, be gone I'm not here for your treasure, man Oh no, he's coming back Hurry, hurry, hurry, hurry, hurry Yeah, South seven graves have been robbed Ok, now where's the exit? Another Dutchman's over here The exit... Oh, ok, the exit's back there He's right there, man You better not get us We're literally right here Yes, we made it Oh, and off we go There you go, Mr. Krabs He took off in his car What was the best? So is he going to be re-escaping? Of course he did, man Well, man, that was pretty intense Not going to lie, I think the best one he's made so far was the Courage, what was it called? Courageous Curse? The Ransom one? That was pretty awesome, man But I mean, shout out to Dave Microway's games All his games are pretty... Pretty unique, they're pretty cool, man Alright you guys, thank you guys for watching Thank you guys for the amazing support If you enjoyed the video, make sure to slap that like button And if you're new to the channel, make sure to subscribe And turn that notification bell on And I'll see you guys next time Bye


Hello and welcome back to the latest in our series of tell me more about our modder Today we're going to be looking at the dwarf fleet There's no jokes here because dwarfs don't do jokes. All right, it's serious. Let's get down to the nitty-gritty What do you think the dwarf fleet is based upon well guess what they are tough they take a lot of damage Their nerve is there and they can reroll they don't run away. They don't panic They just plow on dwarf and style so you've got headstrong as a fleet room Which is they can reroll failed nerve tests and advanced engines ships in the dwarf fleet have engines and therefore they have Plus modifiers to avoid things and the wind plays much less of a role for this fleet on their main ships the line Quite tight turning angles. These are chugging along getting the engine reset But heavy Specific firepower for heavy cannons coming out of the side. So what you're getting with the dwarfs is a general all-round You know solid force hard to put down when it gets a good shot off It hurts, but you've got to work hard to get the maneuverability you want to get your shots away Obviously dwarven ale is an upgrade which you can't suffer crushing blows from boarding actions So preparing yourselves when the orcs are coming in you can keep repairing your boats Flame belches, so there's damage. We're shooting a tap there. So Good solid all-round fleet obviously in my opinion the very best of all of the fleets I know that's a rubbish. So as we all know dwarfs the best, but if you're looking for a good solid Defensive not too difficult to use fleet What's a great place to stop? Thanks. Tune in tomorrow. We'll be covering In the series


The main victim of the borderline patient is herself Yes, yes, or himself Gender pronouns are interchangeable and I say she Simply replace it with he and I say he guess what you can replace it with she I'm gonna use she throughout this text throughout this video so the greatest victim of the borderline patient Is herself She torments herself. She hates herself. She loathes herself. She considered her considers herself a bad object She tries to keep people away From finding who she truly is She has a very negative Self-image is unworthy bad corrupt hopeless and very often helpless Her aggression is compensatory and this is the topic of today's lecture My name by the way is some buckney. Yes, still and I'm the author of Malignan self-love narcissism revisited then as bazillion other books about personality disorders economics philosophy and so forth I'm also a former Visiting professor of psychology Yes, and today we're going to discuss secondary issues in dialectical behavior therapy issues that elucidate through light on the borderline Dynamic when I say borderline, I mean of course borderline personality disorder or BPD how borderlines abuse first and foremost themselves In dialectical behavior of therapy. There's something called secondary targets and what I want to do. I want to read to you something that Linehan has written Marshall Linehan is written. She's the she's the one who developed Who developed a DBT dialectical behavior therapy? the main therapy used in borderline personality disorder so so she identified basically several dimensions of behavior that are Problematic in borderline active passivity and I'm quoting Marshall Linehan active passivity the tendency to approach problems passively and helplessly rather than actively and determinately and this results in a compensatory mechanism known as apparent competence the tendency to appear Able to cope with everyday life and resistance to seeking help or accepting it when it would be effective and wise to do so The second diet is emotional vulnerability and self-invalidation emotional vulnerability high sensitivity to emotional cues emotional intensity and slow return to emotional baseline self-invalidation adopting characteristics of the invalidating environment as fact Not acknowledging true thoughts and feelings about self others or the situation and the third diet is Unrelenting crisis and inhibited grieving unrelated crisis repetitive stressful events coupled with an inability to recover fully from any one stressful event inhibited grieving Has to do with not inability to fully experience and or resolve These the aforementioned traumatic or painful events. These are the three diets. We're gonna I'm going to Expand a bit on each and every one one of these are patterns extreme patterns experienced by the way both by clients and Sometimes by therapists via transference and Both the clients and the therapists remain stuck in these patterns makes it very hard for therapy to be Effectuated and for clients to reach their goals. These are known as secondary targets Let's start with inhibited grieving In the next edition of the diagnostic and statistical manual edition six, we're gonna have a diagnosis Known as prolonged grief disorder It's an encapsulation of what liner hand called inhibited grieving inhibited grieving is Active or passive ways that people avoid or escape their emotions Particularly emotions related to loss or grief And so when do we grieve? When do we experience loss? When do we mourn? When we lose something we lose someone Who or which are significant to us? So it's not always the loss of the person It's not always the loss of an object In animate object. It's not always the loss of a position reputation place language you name it it's sometimes The perception of the loss Sometimes the grief is sometimes not over the loss itself But over the experience of the loss the perception of the loss It's an attempt to avoid the emotions attendant upon the loss Upon the grief upon the morning The grief is prolonged Precisely because we don't confront these emotions We don't process them We don't live with them. We don't get habituated by avoiding them actually end up perpetuating them and so Loss and grief a very dominant in cluster B personality disorder, especially narcissistic and borderline. I've suggested many times that NPD and BPD these personality disorders actually types of prolonged grief Grief reactions grief over what could have been grief over lost potential When we lose something when we lose someone when we think of tragic Regrettable things our past nostalgic and even when we live a life That we disown that we feel estranged from a life that is not our own life that we hate Life that we never wanted We feel sad feel sad We feel grief grief Because there is a loss there and it is a loss of a hypothetical It's a loss of a future a counterfactual future There has never happened but could have in short Prolonged grief is about lost potentials much more than about lost actualities We grieve What could have been and we grieve the idealized image of the past These losses are all in our minds And this is especially true in borderline personality disorder borderline personality disorder is a form of Solipsism an escape from reality by handing over Important internal processes and their regulation to an outside agent outsourcing them For example to an intimate partner so Grief and sadness and mourning they're painful They're overwhelming In the case of the borderline, they're intolerable And so the inhibited grieving comes in To prevent the borderline from decompensating disintegrating and acting out. It's a defense against the ocean of sorrow And suffering that constitutes the borderline's experience of herself escaping such feelings is understandable avoiding them is a reasonable rational strategy and so The borderline actively Tries to distract herself She becomes a alcoholic She develops obsessive compulsive rituals like cleaning the house cleaning the house all the time Trying to get work done. She keeps her mind busy all day and many many borderlines abuse alcohol and drugs They develop addictions and all these things are intended to prevent the borderline From having an internal experience or shall I say experience of in an interior It's as if the borderline lives on the surface On the one hand the borderline has no skin separating her from reality reality impinges border touches her Directly and super painfully on the other hand it is there on the in the on the interface with reality that the borderline exists She has no depth Because she's empty There's nobody there exactly like the narcissist But the narcissist solution is to pretend That reality is a figment of his own fantasy Reality in the narcissist case is always internalized and interjected The borderline solution is very different It's to say I am going to avoid reality By keeping busy I am going to avoid reality by demolishing and eradicating my mind With drugs and alcohol I'm going to divorce my own body via Depersonalization Derealization Amnesia Dissociative defenses. I'm going to divorce my own body So that anything and everything that happens to me is not happening to me actually. I'm not there This is the borderline solution the narcissist solution the world is me the borderline solution I am not in the world so The borderline spends an inordinate amount of time Suppressing her thoughts and feelings Not expressing how she really emotes Hiding the true extent of other people's impact on her Some of this avoidance is actually very functional and necessary. It gets her through the day It allows her to function at work or some other activities, but Over time She gets addicted to avoidance to escape She develops phobia fear of being engulfed and enmeshed in reality not only with the intimate partner She loses the opportunity to experience things and And so she's devoid of an internal experience It's as if her life the borderline's life was some kind of dream a dreamscape Very often nightmarish, but not necessarily. It's very surrealistic in the neutral way It's as if she everything that's happening to her Could have happened otherwise It's just a narrative choice a script a movie and so The prolonged grief the inhibited breathing the experience of loss of the borderline Is there But it's very superficial Because it's mediated via numerous defense mechanisms Cognitive distortions serve deceptions and so on and so forth the borderline Mourns Potentialities her losses are possibilities It's as if she lives she inhabits the past and the future, but never the present and so this is inhibited inhibited grieving What about unrelenting crisis? This is the flip side of inhibited grief Inhibited grieving involves avoiding reality escaping emotions Unrelenting crisis is actually inhabiting the chaos The internal chaos of the borderline. It's as if you're immersed the borderline immerses herself immerses herself in her own Disregulated overwhelming drowning emotions It's as if she is a puppet a Mindless marionette Driven by her emotions emotions dictate to her what to do and she ends up in very difficult stressful dangerous situations she ends up being in these situations because Because she abrogates Personal responsibility choice and decision-making. She says I can't help it my emotions have driven me to do this and so Most borderlines go through in an unusual crazy number of stressful events In a single week the borderline can use drugs and alcohol Then get raped Then get evicted because she hadn't paid the rent then break up with her partner then get into a car accident Get arrested for an assault of the other driver and all this in five days The avalanche of tsunami of stressful events in the borderline's life is What line of them called the unrelenting crisis a prolonged and repeated crisis state? That engulfs the borderline is intense and provokes a disregulation of emotions in the end Another reason for the unrelenting crisis Is the fact that borderlines Misperceive reality. They have very poor reality testing Their judgment is impaired But they have like a weak radar for dangerous situations risky people and so on so forth and sometimes They do realize that some people are predators Some situations a bed for them, but they get into the situation anyway Why? Because it's exciting It's risky. It's thrilling Borderlines are reckless and defined when they are in a secondary psychopathic state So sometimes it's a lack of discernment a lack of judgment gallability naivete or whatever and Sometimes it's just the f you factor on the hell with it I'm gonna go along with it because it sounds fun It sounds exciting. It sounds irresistible. Let's go to the next diet active passivity Active passivity Is the opposite of apparent competence, which we're going to discuss momentarily Apparent competence is when you when the borderline appears more competent and capable than she is So people don't recognize that she's suffering They don't recognize that she's falling apart and needs help Because she displays amazing competence. We'll come to it a bit later Active passivity is what is called in other schools of psychology land helplessness In active passivity the borderline actively seeks help from other people But she's passive in helping herself She doesn't take care of herself She ignores her own emotional needs She neglects things that need to be done. She procrastinates But not because she's a perfectionist, but because she is needy and clinging similar to a codependent So She has a hard time Managing her life and she fully expects other people to do it for her She relies on them. She's entitled exactly like the narcissist She doesn't have the confidence of the skills. She believes she's afraid. She's anxious She feels more comfortable and less alone when people around her Do everything for her Helper in her lingo So people help her and in the borderline's mind Anyone who helps her loves her Cares for her. There is an over-perception similar to the histrionic so It's a kind of test or testing The borderline pushes people around her to serve her to cater to her needs to take care of her of her life To manage her life for her because this is the only way she could ascertain That these people love her that they're there for her that they care about her that they want Her well-being So it's it's not only Over dependency. It's also a form of testing Borderline doesn't do things for herself Even if she could do them instead She actively recruits other people to help her and this is active passivity. It's like sitting on your hands While asking someone to help you to stand up Active passivity is very problematic There's over time the borderline develops a self-perception Which is essentially Helpless Borderline develops learned helplessness. She becomes anxious Incapable of helping herself. She starts to view herself as defective, deformed, impaired disabled, unable to accomplish anything and The more she relies on other people to do things for her The more she sends the message to herself That she is doomed finished hopeless Over time She begins to believe this She takes this message to heart and she thinks I'm incapable. I'm inadequate I'm unworthy. I'm a failure.  Sounds familiar? That's the bad object Active passivity Encourages the expression of the bed object and its dominance over all other internal psychological processes puts a lot of pressure on the borderline on the one hand and on other people who are expected to do things for her Expected to conform into a beggar, friends, lovers, I don't know, therapists They find themselves doing way more for the borderline than they would for other people In short It's an unboundary situation Both the borderline and everyone around her lose their boundaries and over time This leads of course to resentment and burnout Everyone around the borderline gets exhausted. Don't wanna be don't want her around anymore People become reluctant to help the borderline. They find themselves Rejecting her and shunning her and she on the other hand escalates. She ups the ante She demands things more intensely. She begins to threaten to stonewall passive aggressively Manipulate people to do what she wants them to do passive activity active facilities Bed for self-esteem, but also detrimental when it comes to relationships This is why many borderlines choose the solution of active apparent competence Apparent competence is when the borderline pretends to be more capable More emotionally put together more stable and more competent than she actually is she fakes it fake it till you make it She seems to be okay She seems to be reasonably competent. So people say, you know, she's she doesn't need help People don't realize how much she's suffering How much how much she needs suck or an assistance people don't understand or don't grasp How near the verge she is on the verge of falling apart and disintegrating So she can she ends up being alone Having to deal with her problems in a solitary fashion feeling disconnected or alienated from other people some people suffering from mental health problems they use apparent competence because They're incredibly smart and they're very capable in certain situations. So these people are good at work Oh, I don't know in their jobs or hobbies or volunteer activities But when they're back at home in intimate situations or alone, they fall apart They can't cope with loved ones and intimacy and so on so forth and we this is called contextual competence Contextual competence is when you're good in some situations capable and competent in some in some environments But a disaster in others People appear more competent than they are because there's a disconnect Between how they present to others and how they are feeling or functioning. It's a lie. It's a facade. It's a deception But you know, other people have their own problems They're happy to pretend together with a borderline that everything is fine and so Borderline sometimes avoid Presenting the real case avoid avoid being truthful about how suffering and how How disintegrating they are because they don't want to be a downer They don't want to express how they really feel because it makes other people miserable Nobody would want to spend time with them So they put on they put on a cheerful facade. I'm happy. Go lucky. I'm joyful. I I joke around I make people smile and laugh. I'm jovial. I'm Companionate I'm sociable and all this is fake All this is intended It's a desperate attempt to avoid abandonment and rejection by other people It's deep inside the borderline is a shambles is a ruin There's nothing there It's like some ancient archaeological site of trauma and pain and suffering putting on Happy face is exhausting spending time with others Starts to seem like a major chore in the start to avoid people and these compounds, of course the depression Let's go to the last diet, which is emotional vulnerability versus self-invalidation Emotional vulnerability is A core characteristic of borderline personality disorder and it has three different aspects emotional sensitivity emotional reactivity and slow return to emotional baseline Let me enlighten you about each one of these People with borderline personality disorder have a low threshold for emotional responses They've they have a her trigger response It doesn't take much to bring a bpd person to extremes of emotional response and emotional stone A borderline can Look at someone Listen to something or someone Watch a sad movie Be frustrated in a minor way and All this can throw the borderline into a complete emotional Tentrum She just is all over the place often aggressive and violent and so on so forth While other people who are not borderline They would seem completely oblivious to these triggers and this is emotional sensitivity Emotional reactivity is the tendency to experience very strong emotional responses Research suggests that people with borderline. They tend to have overpowering Emotional reactions particularly when the emotional figures are interpersonal or related to rejection Both intimate rejection in person a social rejection Borderlines do abandonment and they do rejection very badly People with borderline when they have these strong emotions Everything these emotions consume everything There are no resources left The entire energy Economy of the borderline is consumed and subsumed by these emotional Hurricanes and tsunamis It's very hard and takes you a huge effort and skill to manage these emotions And so most borderlines fail in doing this intense emotions interfere with borderline's ability to think To plan to problem-solve to see reality for what it is to compromise To consider other people's perspectives in short to do anything It's as if the borderline becomes the emotion It's transformed into this into this title wave of feelings It's hard to control behavior when we experience strong emotions It's doubly so for the borderline There were quite a few studies that demonstrated that when emotions are intense The main priority even in healthy people is to escape these emotions Even through behaviors which might cause us problems So for example overeating Drug abuse substance abuse Becoming aggressive or violent There's always all all these are all ways to avoid emotions that threaten to Kill us literally and Then the third element in borderline is slow return to emotional baseline People with borderline often have difficulty to get back to what is Called physiological baseline arousal These are logical baseline arousal is like arrest or arresting emotional state Rest emotional state at rest think of it as zero So there's the emotional baseline most people all people naturally Go from the emotional baseline to emotional arousal emotional arousal can be ten out of a hundred twenty out of a hundred and so the borderline Goes from the emotional baseline of zero to eighty and ninety There are no Stations in between it's from zero to hero from zero to a hundred and sixty seconds and Cannot return to zero She remains stuck at 60 or 70 Baseline is How you feel when nothing emotional is happening you go to a walk for walk I don't know when you sit quietly reading Non-fiction book financial statements That's baseline Borderlines are never a baseline never and they always find it very difficult to even get close to baseline Probably the biological reasons for this I don't want to go into this there's a physiological stress response system Differences in parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous system brain differences which have to do with emotions of regulation We'll leave it some other time But it's a fact that people with borderline personality disorder not only depart from the baseline very often and Are not able to get back to it. They also ruminate About emotional events and this amplifies emotions make it impossible literally to get back to baseline People with borderline don't have the skills They don't know how to regulate emotions. They don't know even how to self-soothe In order to get themselves back to back to baseline and there is a strong element of displacement the slow return to baseline Render the borderline chronically vulnerable to emotional situations So a borderline can have an emotional response at work she shoots up from baseline to 90 zero to 90 Then she goes back home and she's still at 60 or 70 because she can't beg get back to zero She's still at 60 or 70 and then a tiny thing tiny problem tiny frustration cause her to erupt and Aggress against her intimate partner who has done nothing to her But she's still at 60 She is not overreacting to the frustration She's just unable to get back to baseline after the incident at work. So she takes it out on her intimate partner aka displacement Emotional vulnerability Leaves the borderline Renders her makes her feel Helpless out of control of her own emotions thoughts and actions and she despises herself She loathes herself for this She's very self-critical. She has a harsh inner critic And she feels consumed By her own emotions and unable to see a way out Marshall Linehan Describe people with high emotional vulnerability as Emotional burn victims sensitive to the slightest touch And the other side of this is self-invalidation Self-invalidation is when the borderline rejects or invalidates her own emotions When she's stuck in emotional vulnerability She's caught up in her emotions and then she moves on to self-invalidation Judging herself rejecting herself for having had these emotions in the first place She goes from being sad and devastated and depressed and anxious and unhappy and and so on so forth because she has been Rejected she's been abandoned either what she goes from this Telling herself that it's stupid to feel this way something's wrong with her She's mentally ill. She's acting out. She needs to get a hold of herself.  Why can't you just snap out of it? Why don't you just move on and This is very invalidating and It adds to the borderline's internal self-invalidation She internalizes these voices She interjects and they become a way of coping with her emotional dysregulation because She devalues the emotional dysregulation and she devalues the emotions She says nothing bad. It's nothing big.  There's a genetic there's a vulnerability which seems to be even genetic maybe But to tell you right the borderline Constantly self-criticizes constantly self-invalidates And if you if the borderline gets caught in this dialectic between emotional vulnerability and self-invalidation She's swept away By this she feels like a victim of the storm of her own emotions. She self-victimizes She's engulfed by self-criticism self-judgment and shame about her emotions If the borderline is comorbid With psychopathy or with narcissism. She would then Project these feelings She would develop alloplastic defenses and rather than self-victimize She would accuse other people of victimizing her She is harshly invalidating harshly self-critical and This sometimes works sometimes it jolts her out of unwanted emotional experiences, but the costs especially in the long term a huge Personal suffering shame guilt self-hate inwardly directed anger and so one of the main solutions of the borderline is to transition from the self-state of a borderline to the safe state of a psychopath secondary cycle and then grandiose narcissistic reckless reactant and defiant She blames everyone around her for her own self-victimization


So let's take a detailed look at finding the graph of a rational function. So for the graph of y equals f of x, where f of x is x minus 2 over x plus 1, let's find the x and y intercepts, the vertical and horizontal asymptotes, and then sketch the graph. So remember, the x-intercept will have coordinates h, 0. The x-intercept is the point on the graph where y is equal to 0. So we have y equals f of x equals means replaceable. So f of x is x minus 2 over x plus 1 and y is equal to 0. And that gives us an equation. To solve this equation, we can multiply both sides by the denominator x plus 1. We'll simplify and solve. And remember, the x-intercept is a point and both coordinates must be given. So our point has x equal to 2, y equal to 0, and the x-intercept is at 2, 0. We can also find the y-intercept. The y-intercept will have coordinates 0, k, and so the y-intercept is the point on the graph where x is equal to 0. So we're graphing y equals f of x. f of x is x minus 2 over x plus 1. Equals means replaceable, so we'll replace x with 0. We'll do a little arithmetic and find our y value. And remember, the y-intercept is a point, so both coordinates must be given. We have x equals 0, y equals negative 2, and the y-intercept is at 0, negative 2. Now, since this is a rational function, the denominator can't be equal to 0. We require x plus 1 is not equal to 0. And to solve the inequality, we'll start by solving the corresponding equality, x plus 1 equal to 0, we'll solve, and since x equals negative 1 would make the denominator 0, we forbid x to be negative 1. So we require x not equal to negative 1, and we might note the following. As x gets close to negative 1, but stays slightly more, x plus 1 goes to 0, but slightly more, and x minus 2 goes to negative 3. And so x minus 2 over x plus 1 will go towards a fraction where our numerator is close to negative 3, and our denominator is a small positive number. And so the value will be negative and large, and so we say that x minus 2 over x plus 1 goes to negative infinity. And if it's not written down, it didn't happen. We write down as x goes to negative 1, but stays a little bit more, f of x goes towards minus infinity. On the other side, as x gets close to negative 1, but stays slightly less, x plus 1 goes to 0, but stays a little bit less than 0, and x minus 2 goes towards negative 3. So x minus 2 over x plus 1 will go towards a fraction where our numerator is close to negative 3, and our denominator is a small negative number. And so the value will be positive and large, and so x minus 2 over x plus 1 is going to go towards positive infinity. Again, if it's not written down, it didn't happen. And since as x goes to negative 1 either slightly more or slightly less, our function values go to plus or minus infinity. This means that x equals negative 1 is going to be a vertical asymptote. So to find the horizontal asymptote, we rewrite the rational expression by dividing the numerator and denominator by the highest power in the denominator. So that's x, so we'll multiply numerator and denominator by 1 over x. We'll do a little algebra, and we see what happens as x goes to positive infinity. 2 over x goes to 0, which means that 1 minus 2 over x is going to go to 1. 1 over x goes to 0, 1 plus 1 over x goes to 1, and so in our rational expression, the numerator is going to go to 1, the denominator is going to go to 1, and so the rational expression goes to 1 over 1, otherwise known as 1. And if it's not written down, it didn't happen. As x goes to infinity, our rational function goes to 1. But since we're on the graph of y equals f of x, that means y goes to 1. Similarly, as x goes to minus infinity, 2 over x goes to 0, 1 minus 2 over x goes to 1, 1 over x goes to 0, and 1 plus 1 over x is going to go to 1. So as x goes to infinity, our numerator goes to 1, our denominator goes to 1, and our rational expression goes to 1 over 1, or 1, and if it's not written down, it didn't happen. As x goes to minus infinity, y goes to 1, and so that says that y equals 1 is going to be a horizontal asymptote. And now let's incorporate this information into a graph. We know where the x-intercept is. We know where the y-intercept is. We require x cannot be equal to negative 1, so we'll place a little electric fence line there. If our x values are close to negative 1, but a little bit more, our function values, our y values, are negative and large. So this point way down here. If our x values are close to negative 1, but a little bit less, our function values, our y values, are positive large. So that suggests points up here. As x goes to infinity, if we go to the right, our y values get close to 1. As x goes to minus infinity, if we go to the left, our y values get close to 1. And so altogether our graph smoothed out is going to look something like this.


On behalf of the government of Uruguay, it is my pleasure to convey our most sincere and warm congratulations to International IDEA on its 25th anniversary. We would like to recognize the relevance of the organization in promoting and strengthening democracy around the world, and commend its Secretary-General and all the staff for their work. Today, the current context of COVID-19 represents an additional challenge to democracy, and we need to ensure that electoral processes take place in a credible and transparent manner. Uruguay is proud to be one of the full democracies in the world, and it has recently conducted elections during the COVID-19 scenario, confirming that it is possible to ensure a ballot if suitable precautions are taken. We are ready to collaborate with other countries by sharing our experience. Finally, current circumstances are showing a deterioration on the quality of democracy and respect for human rights around the globe. And for this reason, we believe it is more relevant than ever that International IDEA plays an active role by providing relevant insight and knowledge to help us defend our core values.