Rwy'n gweld i'n dweud gweithio iuno Llanfyniadau Llanfyniadau inniolig ar Ysgrifenniad Llanfyniad yma. Tyn ni'n dweud unrhyw i'r Ffasilydd Llanfyniadau Llanfyniad mewn Llanfyniadau i'r Unegol ar Gweithredaethol Ac rydyn ni wedi gynsun Llanfyniad yma o'r Cwzhwm. Llw wiew yr ysgrifenniad yn eich bod yw'r gwneud yn teimlo'r barfyn yma chi'n chroed. Here's the annual total. You see from the 1980s, we've almost doubled in recent years. Along with that, we've got increasing damages. You see from 1980 to today, there's been a quadrupling of damages. This is global total damages. That's because there's more people and more people have more stuff. Back to ECEP. The mission of ECEP is to enable improved societal planning to weather and climate extremes. We do that through partnering between government, academia, commerce and local communities. We do basic science, engineering and technology. We also develop tools to support decision making. Instead of talking about rainfall and temperature, we talk about dollars and flood height, for example. An overarching philosophy is that of graceful failure. More on that later. Traditionally, damage modelling starts with a hazard. You define the hazard, it could be flood height. Then you define the exposure, the buildings. Then you define vulnerability that says how the exposure responds to the hazard. The output is damage. The output is a typical damage curve. It gives you a probability P of damage D within a set time period. From that curve, you can estimate the 1% event or the 0.1% event, for example. We're lifting the lid on that and developing a global risk resilience and impacts toolbox, or GRIT, for short. This is a fully open source modelling system. It's developed by the community. It's fully supported, so think war for CESM, and it's flexible to future demands. GRIT starts with a database of exposure, hazard and vulnerability. The hazard is historical observed climate, but also future projected climate. Sitting on top of that database is a framework. This framework, you think of it as a number cruncher. It computes all the different permutations of the input data and outputs impact variables, as defined by a series of applications or apps. We have some of these apps in development. We're working on a hurricane app, a flood app, an urban climate adaptation app and a construction app. What do these look like? I'll give a couple of examples. First off, the hurricane app. A user can go in and input your location, your time period of interest, and it would spit out, say, a time series of likelihood of hurricane damage or a spatial map of hurricane damage potential. Another app is our force majeur app. A force majeur is a contractual clause in construction contracts. It's the act of God that says the likely downtime due to weather or climate. A user could again input their location and time period, and it would give you, say, a likelihood of threshold exceeding, say hot days or wet days, and that enables competitive contracts to be developed. Our overarching philosophy throughout all this is that of graceful failure. What is this? Here's two examples of failure, but I think you'll agree that they're pretty graceful. What does that mean when we're talking about weather and climate extremes? Let's first talk about what it isn't, and it isn't the response to the September 2013 front-range flooding where a lot of the canyon roads were washed out. Building for resistance does not mean building resilience. I'll give another example of graceful failure. Here's two containers that can hold liquid, but they're going to encounter a hazard. So which one do you think will maintain operability after it's been struck by the hammer? Well, I think you'll have guessed. The can can still contain liquid. However, on the other side, we see a catastrophic failure. Operations have ceased. It can no longer contain liquid. Moving on to a real-world example of graceful failure. Again, going back to the 2013 floods, so in Boulder we have a series of the bikeways and pedestrian paths that guided the floodwaters away from the local houses or the majority of the houses avoiding a catastrophic failure. So that was a summary of ECEP, so if you're interested in getting involved, you can subscribe to our website, read about us in Atmos News, connect with us on Twitter or send us an email. Thank you very much.