Good morning traders and welcome to the book map live trading webinar. This is Bruce at book map And we do this live forward-looking analysis three days a week Monday Tuesday Friday It is open and free to all on Friday. So we have guests in here today. So welcome And we're gonna go through our educational process And you get a feel for what you get when you subscribe to book map The global plus version is what when you get these live trading webinars So it is a follow-up to our educational course in the live market. It's not only live analysis It's forward-looking. So we will give insight to where we think price is going to move next based on that that live analysis So you can apply what you learn from the course and then we have You can learn from two different Professional traders stock trader J trader on Wednesdays and scuffle senior futures trader on Thursdays So you can learn from their very specific ways of trading and reading order flow and their setups their strategies and trade management So we offer the whole complete package here for your education. It is all included with your global plus subscription. I Encourage you You know go out and compare and shop around See if anyone else offers this kind of education. I haven't seen it Included free like this if they do offer something likely it is hindsight analysis not forward-looking and Then likely it costs hundreds of dollars. Maybe even thousands And so it is all included with book map. That is a very very nice offering Let's go through some disclosures and jump into the live market Okay, general disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations risk disclosure trading futures equities and digital currencies involves a central risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All right, let's jump in and take a look here. What's going on? and Interesting stuff previous webinar. We just finished up over there The Very very easy read. Well, let's just go through it here This is what we kind of saw when the webinar opened up at 9 30. We were seeing this drop They pulled that liquidity around this 16 045 we're looking at the Nasdaq e-mini We can look at other markets if you guys like note. No problem. We're just seeing some good stuff here so far So I'm going to continue on with it They pulled here. Well, where we where we going next. We're looking for 16,000 because look at how strong this activity was Okay, so the no-brainer higher time frame liquidity. This is where it wants to go 16,000 okay, it came down here just shy of it right here as you can see and then Let's just zoom in here and just get getting us updated here before we get into the live market We we see the the back and forth in here was Looking for here. This was interesting. All right, so Just shy of it is pretty typical We've covered this so many times Usually you see people getting filled in front. They were not Okay, that was kind of interesting to see however This are pivot line here. Okay important pivot area right here Okay, now it happens to be also the the Point of control in your volume profile, but just just means the most traded level And that's that's all so it just means that basically in in this consolidation period here It just means that this was what price was kind of The value of the instrument was at that time was was you know around this 15 level here Look at the sellers try to take it below it Okay, and we're looking for after seeing we're looking for that actually in here because Buyers took it above it here You can see it back and forth buyers sellers below it buyers above it fashion bashing back and forth buyers Try to take it again higher sellers don't aren't having it Coming back in hitting the bid looking for them to drop it We're looking for that drop to unfold right in here because we're finding sellers and they did but that we're looking for 16,000 they didn't and then it's like well, hold on a minute Okay, if we get buyers back up above it and we're looking for the squeeze here We're looking for that squeeze looking for 30 was our first price target and then 40 was our second and We've got the the nice move to the upside interestingly enough.  These are these are buyers coming in here. They're moving it This is where the stops in icebergs indicator. I think offers tremendous insight The reason being is it's not showing us stops here. It's not showing us icebergs in here Then and even this move to the upside is just it is indicative of a stop run now. We see it, you know You can see the stops in here And we can show you exactly how many with the the on-chart indicator but In fact, let me let me get that up and running But when it's not what I'm trying to cover here is how insightful it is and when it's not showing you something Okay, so 21 43 37. These are stops. Okay little stop runs in these little areas here. Okay, right up into high liquidity Okay, so yeah, people are getting stopped out, but it's not a whole bunch That's not bad, but anyway So we're finding a lot of new buyers in here, that's what is important Okay, the stops in icebergs is showing us that there's new buyers coming in here Okay, so then we're gonna start to look at that in the order flow with that kind of insight great They should be able to lift it then at least back up to some of these levels here right here where they dropped it from and Let's just zoom out a little bit. Okay, right here. There's also a swing and we're just busting through it right now Okay from the from the pre-market There's little levels in here, but Ultimately, I want to see them actually come up to about this 75 level or maybe even 90 high of the day here Okay, or at least high of this session here Okay, so yeah, if these are new buyers, then that's where I'm looking for it to go Right to previous areas in the order flow that were significant Okay, and the buyers are coming in And we know that there's been a lot of buying in here a lot of buying interest And so they're moving it moving it higher here All right, so Let's see here a good morning Alan and Alexander when you have a chance, can we take a look at gold sure crude and gold? Yeah All right, so Yeah, another thing here that we want to take a look at and we want to understand the order flow around these areas Is areas of consolidation? and in breakouts or the order flow within those consolidation periods because typically the way the market works Is you get a? Consolidation period and back and forth and then something happens and the market breaks And the market will go to a new level now typically that happens in kind of a catastrophic manner and What do I mean by that? Okay, well here we have a consolidation and then we look for a lot of volume to break away very quickly Typically, this is more typical here We have actually a smaller consolidation period here and then here's our big break right and look at the buy volume here So the buyers are serious. They moved it away from that area All right, so that's what we want to understand Is where is that? Big volume taking place And then we want to see the movement as well Okay, so they moved it to a new value area and then you can see it goes back and forth within here until And we're gonna see it right around this 45 or 48 level right here They see the buyers above it. So we even have like kind of ranges within ranges here Okay, so maybe sellers would you know, they'll try to kind of upend these buyers in here and drop it right back down to this 40 level here it will see but You know try to get them stopped out, but the the trick here is you can still remain bullish This is where it broke out from at 40 They on strong volume So buyers have taken control and move the market higher and and it has not gone down below where they took control Okay, in this time frame here from about 1001 or 1002 onwards East Coast time here All right, is there any questions about that understanding market structure here gives a tremendous amount of insight Okay, we want to understand then the volume and also the auction around that market structure All right, so let me clear the drawings here for now. And yeah, we're starting to bounce off this area here. I Wouldn't be surprised though to see sellers try to drop it below 45 back down into that area here around 40 I was just talking about I Don't see him doing it So we're gonna go with the order flow looking for them to try to break up into the 60 ish area here And then through it on up to 65 See if they can do that. I don't know if we're quite ready for that move yet But that's the direction we would point to right now due to the order flow. We're currently seeing All right now. Let's read the Not just the structure here, but what about the auction? What is it telling us here? Okay, the limit sell orders here and the limit buy orders over here Well, see them pulling here on the bid And they even pulled down here. So do they want to be buyers here and the answer is no So let's see if the sellers can try to break it And if they can where would they go next? Well, this liquidity looks pretty good down here around 36 So, let's see if the sellers can do it Looking for it and we should get a stop run too, right? Because these these guys are gonna get shaken out here Here we go Looking for 40 and then maybe 36 Okay, selling looks pretty good See even on these smaller moves. This is where I don't know James is in here today And these these markets are fractal And understanding the kind of fractal nature see how even this little small move It relates to what we're talking about Sellers to control down here and then we're back up above it and buyers trying to take control here So this is similar to what we saw in the previous webinar We're looking for the squeeze the upside here We were looking for that move down into 40. It is failing. It's a back back up above our pivot line here And this important area right here Okay, and on size and that's the important part size and then movement is what we're looking for here Okay, so we're getting a low volume pullback now if we can get back up to here at 50 With another big big green dots buying here Likely we're gonna get our breakout Okay, and we get the breakout back up into the top of the range here at at 55 Or 60 up here that we're looking for actually earlier and they cannot They cannot Okay, we're back to the squeeze to the downside here Anyway, we're seeing a nice battle between buyers and sellers and this is typical around these kind of pivot points Sellers below it buyers above it, you know They're really trying to move it and trying to get someone to get be wrong on the other side And then you know, they've got to cover. All right, let's see if the buyers try to do that right here Still looking for them. Let's see it big green dot here and then a quick move up into probably 52 or 55 Yep looking good here now We just need to be that looking for that green dot see how they're pulling here on the offer as price comes up toward them They come back in as price moves back away Now I know we're looking at a tiny little range here, but we just this kind of understanding in these Areas of consolidation are the same on all time frames. See see and then look at the sellers try to come in here And they're not they're not we they're they got below that that that pivot area here this line And we don't see a lot of selling Okay, so now buyers have it here now they can now they they're pulling here now I'm looking for it for you know higher probability move that we're going to move up into 55 here Sellers still fighting and we got up to 52 Okay buyers, let's see it Sellers still fighting it there at 52. Look at that. All right, they've got a clean shot at it now They pulled here at 55. Okay, they're adding on the bid And we didn't find our buyers here, right? So now it's starting to exhaust up here actually We're not finding buyers. We it was a higher probability trade in here for a move to 55 Now they just exhausted out of the market here buyers here, okay Buyers here and a lack of buying up here. They come right back to it. All right. All right Let's see if they they just traded into this 50 liquidity here We got our green dots again, we should get a nice move to the upside here. Yeah, here we go now 55 now 60 as well I want to see 60 here 60 liquidity looks good 65 liquidity looks really good as well Okay, I'm gonna have to do a little hindsight Education here just to kind of cover this and it happened a little little quickly here to go over in real time There's our move 60 and and looking for 65. There's 65. Let's zoom out here. Where else is this going here? This is the breakout Yeah, up to our 75 level that we talked about earlier. Maybe maybe we can get back up into 90 up here And that would be high of the day now We should we should really start to see some stops trickled not trickled We should see some big stops to the upside here Okay, right a little little tricky move in here But I want to cover it. I mean we're still moving and we're still looking for this to go higher They were almost at our 75 level that we were talking about earlier and what else was it? I think it was not just 75 this I liked This yeah up here This swing Yeah around 75 And then also 90 looks really good They've been in the book for quite a while and they never they never traded here that liquidity up here at 90 Okay, so we have a little bit more Understanding as well here in the in the order flow and the market structure on higher time frame buyers coming in Okay, we talked about it earlier That Well, we don't see any stop runs in here. We're looking for a squeeze You know a short squeeze to the upside and we're not getting it So if they're if they're not stops being triggered, this must be new buying That would be the assumption Okay, and yeah that assumption, you know played out pretty nicely in this move to the upside Hey sellers coming back in we Kind of interesting move, okay 65 blaze through that and it did not trade to our 75 level a little shy of it It came pretty close Came up here about 73 and then sellers came in Traded into now. This is typically, you know What we see Typically what we see on these moves From one new zone to the next. Okay, that's what I was talking about earlier as well There's you know, this is playing out really nicely too. I mean, it's always it's typically the same stuff here But this is what we were covering consolidation Breakout and then look at how they see how they're supporting it here on the on the bid and they actually sellers took I'm on and traded into them here Where it broke out from where at 60 they're on the offer here now. They're on the bid So let's just clear our lines again here Going through a lot of stuff trying to go through it in real time here and keep up the This is typical though. We look for them to support it buyers would should support it, right? Now we're getting we're getting sellers testing those buyers though They're down below that area here at 60 They took these guys on on the bid they these guys bought and the transaction took place here Okay, now if we get back up above it Great, then we're looking for this liquidity back up here and now up here actually 70 Okay, so around 65 70 looking for buyers to stream right up to that area Because we're above this area right now. That's kind of the key See you see buyers are sellers I'm sorry guys. I'm kind of all over the place today Sellers they come back in and try to drive it below that area. This is an important They know it's an important area and they're trying to get price to move that way And this is where the battle is shaping up and now buyers are back up above it now We're gonna get our move Okay, these guys got it wrong. They tried to take the market down. They got it wrong They had to cover on the other side so these pivot points are really kind of Where you see these battles erupt and it does you can see it's a high volume note as well It's primarily due to this these two transactions here the buyers here and the sellers here And there's not a whole lot in here. It's just trying to get people below it or trying to get people above it here but understanding this kind of And it's it's it looks like it's a detail It's not though. It's it's really just understanding what happened at this price level Why did price break out? Okay, how it returned back to this area here And and what's going on at this area? It's an important area this 60 level here for this time frame And now the buyers are back up above it and we're looking for them to extend and reach We're looking for 65. We're looking for 70 Okay, and we're looking for 75 Any questions because we were we were covering this here understanding like these kind of Large moves like this and how it moves away from an area of consolidation This is really a key element to understand in market structure. Okay, what what makes the market move here? Who knows the answer to that? What what makes the market move? any anyone any ideas Exactly the aggressors Alan the aggressive buyers and sellers Right market buy and sell orders Now I'm just I just want to detail this out just a little bit here So that you guys because we have guests in here today Because it's it's really One thing that's really nice about book map Is it such simple data? We're not showing you anything, you know Crazy here. It's not some sort of super, you know slick indicator or anything like that. It's simply not What we're showing you here is just what happened in the market And and that's the beauty of it here. It's so simple. In fact book map was developed for ourselves For our own Algo performance to understand our algo performance. So let me zoom into the current market here Or just the recent historical market here, and I want to show you what I mean Okay, because we wanted to see our performance like what was unfolding. How is it performing? And we needed to understand. Well, what is what's going on in the market? So here's best bid and offer? Hey red lines best offer green lines the best bid Green dots are market buy orders when you hit the market buy button And that's what moves the market what Alan was just saying Okay, because they take liquidity There's the other side of the trade who's on the other side of the trade the passive limit sell orders and Passive buy orders below the market. Yeah, that's where they're in the auction That's where they're bidding and offering at specific price levels And they're and they're passive because they're waiting in the order book. They cannot technically move price What technically moves price is the market buy and sell orders? Why is that is because they take liquidity from the the best offer in this case? And if they take enough liquidity, they will sweep the order book Higher and price will move higher to the next level and will trade there And then if there's enough buyers, they'll trade through into these higher areas of liquidity and that's what makes the market move Now you can argue and I always do argue that the limit sell orders We see them move the market all the time due to their influence Okay, but technically they cannot make them move Right, but if they show massive supply or massive demand, there might not be enough buyers interested in tangling with that liquidity Like up at 70 right here, but we can gauge that Understanding do we find buyers interested in it so far? Yes, so good Okay, now we look for it though You can see sellers, you know Buyers start start start to wane a little bit now. They want to buy it maybe at a lower price here Now they're getting they're coming back up. We get a retest back up here And let's see if these buyers are interested in coming up into this 60 68 and 70 level if there's enough we'll see them Okay, look at the sellers trying to get it below 60 again here Trying they're really trying to drive it lower and if they can they can upend all of these buyers Okay, if they can't they're gonna be the ones that are gonna get upended here Okay, so again, you can see this pivot line is holding really nicely in this current market and here come our buyers now Right after you see the drop here Okay, because these guys have to cover Okay, so we trade up into 65 top of the range And not enough buyers to get up into 70 though Okay, look at the sellers once again, they're gonna try it. They're trying to get down to 55 and then maybe 51 Okay, a little more successful this time Okay, still again buyers are gonna try to upend them right above 60 here. There's buyers. There's buying interest. I like it. I'm still looking for them to trade up into Yeah, 60 67 and 70 here now. There's some insights in here. Now look here's a skew in the in the book And what do we find buyers? Okay, more more liquidity up on a higher level on the bid They're bidding up and we found buyers react to it Okay, that's another understanding of the reaction to liquidity here And that's one of the reasons why I'm looking I'm still bullish here in the in the in the move to 70 here Due to this liquidity in here. Yeah, these are some subtleties In understanding liquidity around some of these areas Okay, so one of the things here was we were finding buying interest and they weren't even really bidding up in here So buyers are still interested regardless of the order book Well, then if we see the order book come in with some interest we should find even more buyers, right? They should be It should repel them Away from these areas here and it should attract them to this liquidity at 68 and 70 Okay, so due to this kind of action within here Okay, before that liquidity came in and then after that liquidity came in I'm looking for the buyers Okay, it gives us insight for them to trade back up into these levels And we got back up to 65 That's been it so far. All right. So anyway, that's the goal here in these webinars is to You know Give give insight, you know, how you might read the the order book in different ways or use book map in different ways Within your trading strategies Okay, so you might be maybe your fib trader. I don't have any fibs to take a look at here, but let's say Let's see here above this area here Well, this is likely a fib extension of a hundred Came back up into here and then you know has sold back off to you know, the zero point basically Or 50 I should say 50 point. So You know, you'd be looking at your your fib levels, but understanding the order flow within those fib levels I'm not much of a fib trader. I I don't follow it. I used to a lot. I like measured moves, etc, but You know moved on into You know just everything basically God you could look at Your Elliott wave You could look at your candlestick patterns does not matter look at the order flow around those events to give you more insight Okay, that's where the key is gonna gonna be so we can take a look at Candlestick chart here. Let's look at maybe Five-minute candlestick chart. Okay, this is a the new new heat map here. We have which I really like You can make it transparent here Okay, so we can take a look at look at the moved guys. Just finally sellers are winning below 60 Okay, so they're gonna drive it lower. We're looking for 40 Looking for some of these swings down here in this liquidity 40 35 They've got it here. They've got control and they're moving it away on Size so I'm looking for them to move it down to 40 and 35 from this We're right around 46 47 right now So looking for that. Yeah, that move into in the 40 here looks looks pretty good pretty good here And then and then 35 after So anyway, let's take a look at some candlestick patterns And then start to understand order flow around those areas All right. Well, here's our breakout. Okay strong volume on that breakout great All right, we're looking for buyers to support it They have up until this very point right now Where sellers are now trying to break it below that area here and this is going to be below 50 Right here. All right, so we can go through a candlestick pattern of Here's you know two two Small candlesticks up here and then sellers driving it away below the low here, right? So you'd be looking for them to trade it back down to This this wick or where they where they found buyers down in here, which is the swing low Okay, so now the problem here is like, you know, you'd look for maybe a retest back up to the Where this wick is here and where they dropped it in here, right? And that's where we do our line, but we want to understand the selling around these areas here How they are able to move it lower like this And now the buyers are come backing up to retest these where where these sellers came in Here's our pullback There's 50% of your candle. There's a fib trade as well like 50% of this candle Right now what's going on around that 50% level here? Well, we're finding some some pretty strong buying in here actually not bad not bad So they're gonna try to take it probably back up to 60 So that this fib level here of 50. Well, you know up to you, but it doesn't look high probability to me I would look for a retest back to 60 here. Okay, and there it is Right. Okay, so if they can do that now, maybe they can come back up to the high Okay, and they've done that already now look at the buying in here. Look at the strong buying All right looking for 70. Okay, we got we got back up to the top of the top of the range Sorry guys, I gotta get rid of the candlestick. It's just kind of getting in the way But I think you get the idea of what we're talking about here Being able to understand the order flow around these events is Where you're gonna get the insight because candlestick patterns fail all the time Why do they fail is due to the order flow around it? I mean put our heat mat back on Yeah, this is a really nice target for the buyers here 67 and 70 So I'm looking for here's leg one and now we can talk about some pattern trades as well. Okay, so Nice, you know, it's actually a little flag pattern in here But I'm looking for a bigger flag pattern very strong move consolidation looking for a very strong move again a Back up into this liquidity here and we can look at even measured moves Okay, so here's our measured move here. We'd be looking for the next move here So this liquidity up here, maybe you know if you like measured moves here We're already into our 70 level. That's what we're looking for now. We're looking for maybe higher If you're measured move, you know Type a guy or gal. Anyway, confirm it with the order flow Hey volume profile lots of volume profile traders very popular Hey book map works great with it Hey understanding the the the the Profiles of volume And understanding high volume nodes which means value Means that most traders agree with that price level So what does it take to move price to disagree with that? Okay to disagree with this price level here You're gonna have to find a lot of people that disagree with it. I'm sorry Alexander. Yeah, we'll look at gold I'm on a rant here And it's been a bit of a review here. I mean we're seeing some great stuff here In the in the order flow, so I just kind of stuck with it, but yeah, we'll jump over But let me let me cover this on volume profile, and then we'll just take a look at some of these other markets Give me just another minute here So anyway volume profile areas okay again market structure is an important part of volume profile Okay areas of consolidation, okay high volume node in that area Breakouts, okay areas of consolidation Low volume nodes happen in these areas where it breaks out right around in here typically Why is that because it's a catastrophic break into a new level and very little trades in those little levels in there typically All right, so you get your your high volume node low volume node high volume node And if you get those trending days, you know what that looks like high volume node low volume node, and it just repeats on up Okay compared to your single distribution double distribution whatever it might be It's all the same stuff, but we want to understand within the structure when the buyers and sellers start to come in to move it away from those areas and I would also encourage you to understand some of the limitations of Some of these trading strategies Okay, like candlestick patterns or volume profile understand that this is aggregated data in the profile And that's good. It gives us insight for that structure But we want to understand what's happening here right now at the top of the structure That's what's insightful Okay, because we see strong move here And then we're back up here if we get enough buyers up here, we're gonna break it That that this profile trade or area here is not telling us anything like that And so it it has limitations understand those limitations Understand it's aggregated data All right Let's jump over crude crude oil Take a quick look Okay, I've got data from 6 a.m. Traded into high liquidity down here and here Buyers come in the same type of stuff here Alexander look at some of these pivots Okay Right here above it bounce back off try to try they try to get it below it look at the buyers come in They're gonna move it here top of the range and they break out back up into 81 20 Okay, looking great. Here's another area. They broke out from this area of consolidation Okay, and now we're back testing it here at 80 90 Yeah, Alexander really seriously like I would encourage you if it I know you've been in here for a bit And and you really like the structure like this I would encourage you to to stop looking at everything else right now And and try this see if it works for you Just look at market structure. Okay, so just pair it down and don't look Yeah, it's gonna be tempting to look at volume don't look at your heat map Just look at market structure and start to outline these structures And it's fractal like I said, you'll see structure within structure. I mean you can go it's almost endless But look at the bigger ones is is what really kind of matters here, you know here Here's where it broke out see and then it broke down again It retested but look at the strong by volume it comes in you're gonna see strong by volume on this move And then it comes back in the structure and then breaks out All right, so here's your other little structure and then new one here and then one here Okay, now what we want to understand within these structures is the volume Okay, just start really simple and let's take a look at the volume Now you can start to understand look at this false breakdown trap Pulled away buyer squeeze and Interesting enough. We don't see this is new buying coming in here They're actually getting squeezed to the downside new selling coming in down here as well There now those sellers get squeezed out here.  So anyway start with this and start to understand the volume within these areas It'll it'll give you tremendous insight It better than a footprint or market Delta chart because they're gonna show you aggregation of that of that data of that volume data and You won't be able to see the structure and the structural nuances You'll get in way before these guys in footprint They're they're waiting for pullbacks and stuff because they don't they can't see that this the structure like this So typically you'll see it's it's really interesting to see like you'll see like buyers start to come in and move it And then you'll see that the footprint traders will get back in on the on the on the retests a lot of times Okay, because they can't see that the the relationship in here Due to the aggregation of their data Anyway, get good at this and then now add that final element and understanding the nuances of the heat map Okay, where are the buyers and sellers? Okay, what is that? What is going on in the auction here? Okay, so trading up into this high liquidity up here not enough buyers to take it higher That's gonna give you insight for a pullback to some of these areas here. Oh, yes. Let's see. You have a question Is a way to collapse just the heat map and show only panels with numerical values No, no, I mean what you could do is I I Yeah, I mean you don't have to show the heat map up here. You can you know, you can deselect it Etc. But what you can do is I just just make book map smaller like this Okay, and you can You'll still have some of the heat map in here, but you can make the columns wider Right and your heat map is very very small Something like that You wanted to open several instruments price ladder Well, no, here's here's what you can do as well now It depends on you know your your machine as well like I have many different instruments opened up here But you can double-click on them and pop them out into a new chart, okay, and then you can put these on different monitors Or wherever however you want to arrange it, you know, maybe you want to arrange it within the same You know, it's up to you Right So yeah play around with it If you want to pop that back into the tabbed version here, just close it here It'll pop back in Yeah, double left click on it or you can just drag and drop it Alexander just drag and drop it here. It'll it'll it dropped on to another monitor for me here the cues interesting one we dug pluses in here as well and you know, he he looks at the cues and High liquidity up here It just trading into it now guys. We were looking for this move earlier up into the swing high Due to this move down here, and then we saw that new buying coming in here Well, we're up here already and we're trading up into it in the cues Okay, so let's go back to our NASDAQ for just a second Alexander because this is kind of important, right? We were looking for the potential move up into this 90 area here And that has already unfolded All right, and we also have the cues We have a correlated market highly correlated market and ETF Okay, look at this strong move here as well on that buy side. We missed this as we're going over crude But is there any kind of like, you know lack of understanding of why this unfolded here? Right look at the strong move happened here. The sellers tried to drop it. They got upended. We came back up into the range This is where those buyers took control in here And then we see them nibbling away nibbling away and here's our breakout Look at that strong volume And we'd be looking for the next area 87 90 to transact And it already has now they can still go higher too. There's still this is still pretty strong market here But start to also look at your correlations. How is it relating to the cues? They get insight on that now that that that that area on the cues is really important. That was high liquidity But we might have to have a pullback here before we find new buyers So start to go through some of those scenarios understand some of those scenarios You know how how we might What would the order flow look like for it to come back down here? Okay, well high liquidity on the offer we see that And we want to see them pull on the bid and we're looking for big red dots now and here they come They're trying right. All right, so let's see if they can trade down to 80 Okay, I'd be looking for it Okay, pull back immediately No, this is gonna be a false breakdown looks like and this is another little pivot area here Below it and above it 85 Below it and above it. So now we're above it and then we find the buyers here back up into 90 buyers have it lined up actually for for 95 here and Maybe 100. Yeah, it looks good. This this is a false breakdown I wanted to see it trade down to this liquidity, but we came back up above it and we're finding our buyers anyway Let's go over also gold. We're just missing the move here. Yeah, there's 95 Beautiful stop run as well sold off immediately All right, so now we also have correlated markets though, right? So we just traded into this liquidity here transactions occurred Here it is God beautiful stop runs guys. This is what a stop run looks like Right up in the high liquidity here This is this is one event Okay, and we're gonna see a lot of stops in there. I'm gonna show that No, I want to show that without any filtering Yeah, 121 Now this is really interesting. I mean if you know that all the details are here and and why I want to cover this Let's see you watched his webinar a hundred times who is that Alexander anyway the The oh dogs. Yeah. Yeah, Doug's is great. I mean like I I love what Doug did He you know looked at really looked into the options From spot gamma and they offered a new product. I Mean it's brand new even even Brent Kachuba the the options expert Who had the idea for developing this and and made it happen? I'm looking at gamma levels in real-time real-time options, you know significant levels And that then you know Doug studied it and came up with a trading strategy Out of it and any trades it This is how you do it Right. This is this is you need to go back. You need to do your due diligence You're studying find out, you know, how to operate this thing where you can determine an edge and Then start to trade it Hey trade around it look at trade management around it All right, so understanding these markets is is is is the kind of foundation Anyway, stop run started down here this little This little order right here triggered it is crazy stuff I mean just it triggered all these stops in here someone's order got got cascaded into more stops And You know, we see the move higher here. Okay now it's it's not just Maybe this is all stops Yeah, I believe it is Yeah, this is just a massive stop run Hey the red line here at 121 and it ended here as soon as this event ended The best bid and offer updated All right, this event takes place first update takes next All right, really really It's it's just data Okay, but look at the insight. It's incredible Okay, now now you starting to understand some of those levels of where these if those are stops Those aren't new orders If it's stop loss orders All right, let's take a look at gold gold's going up Okay, in fact, you know high liquidity up here. It's been in here You know looks like the entire overnight session basically, but here's that that same pivot point right here High liquidity on the offer it trades. They trade through it come back bounce off it now They're supporting it on the bid flip of the order book basically It's not really a you know the definition of a flip, but you can see that you know offer to bid and Buyers want to buy now up here Right, so now this would be a deal is what what what buyers are saying here with their orders And they're staying in the book and transact is they think that this is a deal here Okay, then this is the low end. This is the new low end bargain of this instrument because you have your consolidation and Your breakout Polls back. This is the new area here that this a deal And then you're looking to buy they bought sellers took them on and Now we're gonna see who wins the battle if the sellers can get below this area We'll see a nice move back down into this liquidity here Alan. What would you kind of poise pose the question to you? What was the was was market I'm just curious if market structure was I'm kind of leading you with the question or what was the thing that was kind of important for you to understand For You know some of the trades that you've you've you've been taking What was kind of the light bulb? That helped you the most here What the element here to understand like with with book map and in reading the order flow Hitting hitting high liquidity levels. Okay Yeah, okay, so understanding them as like a target Yeah, that the market is a track if to see if the market is attracted to it if they are that's where they're going Would that be correct and assuming the quity moving out of the way? Yeah, okay opening up a path as well Yeah, okay. Yeah, so what then you're talking about market structure in terms of liquidity And I was gonna I was gonna lead to I would I would think that it would be market structure Understanding market structure and then the order flow around it and it kind of is but you're you're you actually taking it a step further And and what you're looking at is the Limit sell and buy orders to create that structure, which is exactly what they do Right in this case here. It's in gold. It's very simple right right here Okay, and now that they're pulling opens the window see the sellers now are they still are they are the buyers still here? No, what if we do we see if we see more sellers here on the offer? Okay, and we see red dots, which means aggressive market sell orders Well, if the reaction to the liquidity up here Let's see these guys pull and add lower and we see more sellers. Well, then this would be your target And this area down here, which was a very important area here actually get all of this activity in the bid on the offer on the bid on the offer This is a very challenging to trade this kind of area in here because you know You're looking to get insight here and but then they're pulling You know they're adding actually getting a lot of insight in here They actually stayed in the order book here. This is a big pretty big transaction here And we found we found buyers. We found the pullback here, but not enough sellers to get below it Great if we can get back up above this area here on the buy side We're looking for the top of the range and then potential move into this liquidity here Okay, it not only did that it broke out from it So anyway again starting to understand that liquidity in here very challenging in here This this gives some pretty good insight here. Now. I know that's hindsight, right? But we would make the same assumption in the live market. We do it all the time So here's our liquidity on the offer now All right, we were just talking about this Okay, what's the reaction? Well the action reaction is pretty muted, right? Actually, we're starting to find some buyers interested That's if this scenario is to break down below here. We need to see sellers And we're starting to see a little bit now, but we want to see a lot of sellers Here we go. Now it's starting. They're starting to kick in a little bit Okay, well they got first the first move they got to get down to is right here and Then we don't have liquidity there the sellers are companies. They're starting to come in now Right, so let's see if they can move it down into maybe 62 62 40 here speed on momentum understanding of vacuum. Okay. Yeah, I mean I I would I would encourage encourage you Alan and and also Alexander to Look at Some of these some of these moves here with the the moving away from areas on high volume Because that establishes new value areas and there's all sorts of pullback strategies within that as well But then and then to target where where might it go? Right, you can use measured moves if you want you can use your fibs You can use whatever you want previous areas of of swings Or liquidity. Okay, I would just encourage you to line them up with liquidity For for more insight All right, so anyway, we covered gold for you Alexander we covered a crude Let's take a quick look back at crude and see what happened here Yeah, it's just been back and forth in that area so far Yeah, you're welcome Let's let's go jump back to this Nasdaq makes me sick. It makes me like physically sick We spent time on on the the other instruments and these are kinds of moves we look for In these markets So anyway, you know, that's kind of unfortunate. We were looking for a move into a hundred First 90 here that that unfolded. We already saw that. Okay, but then look at them above Back into 100 and look at the buy volume. Look at the buy volume, right? That's the key here of understanding that context of relationship of that this strong buy volume and the liquidity and structure Okay, here's the same phenomena that we just covered. I know it's hindsight, but it's just a good example Okay, buyers come in trade into and through this liquidity. They have more buying pressure. We're looking for these areas to transact Okay, we get a pullback to where Where it broke out from even a little bit more bullish. They're up above where they broke out from in here Hey, we can get a pullback to about here 97 and still be bullish You can even go back to the point of control of this range down here and still be bullish around 95 Once you start to see a dip below that on strong selling then you're looking for it to continue Or other side of the range at least But anyway, you'd be bullish in here and you see this this liquidity on the bid supporting it Just like we were looking at I think in in gold there They're supporting it and so we'd be looking for higher highs Or at least back up to here and then they broke out Looking for another area of consolidation and then breakout consolidation breakout high high volume on the on the On the movement up Yeah, correlations another good one Alan. I love looking at the correlations Okay, looking for 150 Right. Look at the what's the order flow like an up in here? Well so far it's bullish pretty bullish like We're going sideways and we're not finding too many buyers, but we're not finding sellers to drop it So that means right now at least there's no selling interest not much There's just no buying interest right now. Yeah, that's that's basically it So this the starting to understand even some of the your flag patterns You know, it gives you a lot of insight what's going on within the volume and also the auction the order flow Actually, this could be a little false breakout here Let's see if we get sellers down here And then I would be I'd be looking for them to move it down to 120 here Yeah, here we go. Let's see if they can do that They're gonna hit it pretty hard and it's gonna be pretty fast 125 and then 120 if they can show up Let's see Thank you. Thank you, Alan Yeah, no, it's really really, you know You sent a couple of the screenshots of some of your trading activity. It was really great It's great to see and you're applying exactly what we're covering in here and those are beautiful trades It's just just beautiful All right, let's see if they sell it can drop it here We're still bullish, of course, but we're just looking for them to try to drop it down into this area here We just haven't had a really big pullback yet Is that scenario likely probably not because this is so bullish here It's a tight little range up at up at a higher level not enough sellers to come in here But I'm just looking for them to try to upend some of the buyers get us Maybe a stop run to the downside into 120 So here we go liquidity on the on the offer here. Do the buyers take them on? Not yet. Looks like they're gonna though. Yeah, they're they did Like a proud father. Yeah No, it's just really cool really cool to see and then yeah, also Alexander also really really nice You know, I watched a Doug's video about a hundred times Yeah, well, you know reach out to Doug he's in the discord chat room Chris. Yeah, it's nice having you in here, Chris. I know you it looks like you left already, but I consider posting this one on YouTube, you know, I posted this last one on YouTube and The recording was just horrible. I it was it was from go-to webinar, too So maybe I'll I'll take a look at it if it if it's good then then we'll do it But Yeah, here's our here's our drop guys now. This is a these things like are hard to you know Determine when they might happen and in fact, they're getting upended already Here's a quick move down and buyers are back up above it but we don't know when this is gonna happen when they just dump like this we were considering or and Like talking about that scenario here That you know looking for them to trade down into 120 here Just to try to you know kind of Mix things up here But they only got downed as far as this 125 Little bit lower, but these are very hard to understand when these might come in Okay, now look at the seat of the buyers back up above it yet again here. Okay. Yeah, nice move 140 and then 145 150 this this is looking good This completes that complete that flag pattern up into 150 Okay, so we're looking for that move We kind of got something and then buyers came in viciously on the other side so Yeah, looking for them to trade at 150 here. What's interesting about this move is something See here Doug, you don't you don't mind if I keep mentioning you in here. Do you if you don't like it? I won't do it Guys beautiful move beautiful beautiful move here Just just shy of 150 but still looking for it What I what I wanted to mention was that you know the correlations They're looking at the cues And and yeah, I can show you Doug's video Where he looks at and I'm kind of surprised usually when you see high liquidity like this in the cues You know, you don't you don't see them bust out from that area at least I I don't I don't see them doing it that often I haven't studied it enough But yeah, this is pretty pretty typical. They you know, you reach these targets and you'll get a pullback I would have been looking for a pullback to probably here There's 91 80 area and we didn't get anything like it Anyway, guys, let's let's wrap it up here some some nice stuff here You know covered a lot of different trading strategies and considerations But again, it's really about the order flow around Some of these areas here are very very simple things of looking at structure And then the order flow within it. Okay, the volume first off the aggressors And then what that the supply and demand how that affects How traders react to that? Okay, and and and then start to look down where price might be going next That's the the forward-looking analysis here and and the reason that we you know, we do it is like Obviously, it's very helpful if you read it, then there's a higher probability You know when we understand the order flow in those areas there's a higher probability for that scenario to unfold So, you know, you can do that with order flow It's You know, what's that what would be the right analogy here? I I'm not really sure in a game of chance or probabilities You know, you can kind of you kind of have an understanding of like like if you're playing craps or something how how the dice are rolling and You know, how many tumbles it'll take before it You know when it's starting to slow down and you know where it kind of might how it might land on an on a number So yeah, we you know, you can kind of do that in the order flow you can kind of start to understand like You know, you have a closer view into what's you know going on there and and that's where the edge comes in And order flow is an edge All right, so anyway guys, thanks for all the kind words there everybody so Have a good weekend and we will talk about more order flow and Look for more price movements on Monday. Okay. Thanks for coming everybody. Bye. Bye


The Romance of the Ranchos San Gabriel 1771 mission San Gabriel found it San Gabriel 1781 settlers moved to San Gabriel mission San Gabriel 1821 Christmas Celebrated at Completed Mission The title insurance and trust company of Los Angeles presents the romance of the ranchos dramatically dramatization of the events and people who made early California history so colorful and adventurous Our Wandering Vicaro Frank Graham returns tonight with a story of a Christmas long ago in the days of the dawn The most reassuring factor in this high-speed hectic and just now very troubled world is the permanence of most of the really important good things of life The permanence, for example, of Christianity and Christmas the durability of character and the primary virtues the fact that right somehow continues to triumph and that man's progress, however temporarily set back in the long run is always forward and upward History proves these statements and here in Southern California it is comforting to look back and see the hardships and trials that have been surmounted the battles that have been won against great odds the defeats that have been suffered and later retrieved by those who have gone before us Title insurance and trust company of Los Angeles urges you when listening to these broadcasts of the true events of the Southland history to keep these thoughts in mind the sponsors will feel more than repaid if these programs can help to strengthen faith and confidence in the future of our community and our country And here is our Wandering Vicaro Frank Graham to tell us the story Buenos noches, señoras y señores Tonight we're going to tell you the true story of the founding of one of the greatest civilizing influences in the history of our section of Southern California The mission San Gabriel and the story of Pedro the Indian which is purely fictional illustrating how Christmas might have been celebrated there of great many years ago I'm sure that you will find it a story filled with the romance of the Ranchos It was about the year 1770 in Mexico City when the great Franciscan friar, Junipero Sierra Padre President of the College of Missionaries announced a decision to one of his brothers We're afraid that you might be ill No, no my son I'm not ill, far from it But this petition, it is very important and I wish to get it to the vice-roy as soon as possible Important? See, my son Upon the success of this, my life work Must not take it, your life work Padre But I am about the California friar of a chain of missions stretching from the one at San Diego to Monterrey What? That wilderness? Wilderness? But according to the diaries of our brother Juan Crespi it is a beautiful land, rich and fertile but devoid of towns of any civilization nothing but great empty plains and heathen Indians It would be a miserable place to live But Padre, it is not for ourselves that we go into the desert It is not for our comfort that we must think It is those heathen Indians who call us I know, think of them thousands of heathen savages thousands of souls searching for salvation We can, we must bring it to them so that they too may know the peace and the wonder of faith It is the most worthy ambition Padre But such a tremendous task Do you think it possible? Padre, the members of our order have always accomplished what they set out to do in the service of God We cannot fail in this and we will not But it will take many men much money See, that is why I pen my petition to the viceroy With his help I will have the money And the men are coming A boat with twenty new friars is even now on the seas coming from Spain See, my brother, we will not be long before we shall plant the banner of the Virgin Madre on the soil of Alta, California and bring civilization and God to that beautiful country Junipero Sarra's great dream of a chain of missions stretching the length of California was to be realized The viceroy authorized the construction of the first five and plans were started And so it was that early in September of 1771 two Padres, Pedro Benito Gamboan in Angel Sumera arrived with their founding party at what had been chosen as a suitable site for the fort in the series of California missions close by the banks of what is now the river Sangabriel They can Put more brush against the side here, Sergeant Say, Padres, we will have a finish very soon That's way no It is not a very imposing building for a mission, is it? Not very But if the best we can do in so short a time tomorrow we can begin on a more permanent home See, but in the meantime this house, made of the good earth and brush will serve as the house of God In it, we can begin our task of bringing the word of the Lord to these poor savages That looks like it may be a pretty big job They don't seem so friendly Look at them, just standing around at a distance watching us I wish I knew what they were talking about over there regards, nutmen, seas they bring with them great animals bigger than the deer made upon their backs The animals are their friends Do as they tell them It is black magic They must be bad gods I say we should destroy them Now, for they mean to stay here They build house of brush But they do not look fearsome Perhaps they are good spirits Come to help us No, the crow has spoken truly These strange men with their animals must be destroyed Why not approach and speak to them learn why they come No, listen The gods of the mountain are not poor They shake the earth It is an omen Those strangers bring disaster The gods bring disaster Padre, Padre, the earthquake It will be over in the moment, sergeant Have no fear You see, it fades away even now Padre, I don't like this There is nothing to fear It can do us no harm See, it does not even disarrange the twig of our house But maybe the next one Come, come Let us kneel down and thank the lord for our safe journey May he shower his blessings on this venture which we here found The mission sang Gabriel Archangel Come Come, pray with me, my brothers And so was founded the first site of the missions and Gabriel The Padres started to work on a more permanent building And for a time, the Indians offered no opposition Then one day, provoked by some incident I don't like it, Padre Look at them, there must be two hundred and they're advancing slowly on us They're painters and they have weapons This is the attack we have feared I'm afraid it is Wait, sergeant, wait There must be another way But Padre, we can't just stand here and do nothing If we are to die, we can at least die fighting Life, not death is our mission There is another way There must be We better find it quickly They're coming closer in a minute they will charge Let me see, what would impress these simple-minded schools I might try the banner The banner of the church The banner on which is pictured the Virgin, Padre I'm a religious man The banner means much to me But to these naked savages it will mean nothing That we cannot say, my son The power of the Lord is manifest in many ways Just the same, I would rather trust my life to the musket, not the banner Please, let me fire on them No, not until there is no other way Not until I give the order Look out then, here they come They're running now They'll start shooting their arrows in a minute Then my son pack away the banner And throw it, soul There Padre, they stop They stop and stand gazing at the picture of the Virgin See, my son The power of the Lord is mysterious But it is with us protecting it I cannot believe it Look, they are falling down on their knees Before the picture See, throwing down their arms And placing beads and ornaments Incredible, incredible Not incredible, my son Or do we not do the same This is more than a symbol of good, my son This banner of our church is an act of powerful good And it will prove the salvation of these poor barbarians And bring success to our venture Thank the old lord Charmed by the lovely picture of the Virgin Mary The Indians were subdued more easily And for a time the task of the Padres was proceeding toward fulfillment Many of the Indians were baptized They began to learn the language and the arts of living which the Padres taught They made plans for more permanent mission buildings But when the winter rains came it became apparent that a new sight would have to be found Padre, the water was coming up fast It will watch the cutaway in no time See, I had no idea that this peaceful little stream could be turned into a raging cold Move to higher ground It'll be over in a few days and we can come back No, sergeant, we will never come back All it can be the same every year No, we must look for a new sight for the mission You mean, all the plans we have made these huts, all are to be abandoned? See, it will be better so Madadios, months of work But we must build on firm ground where our handiwork may stand in safety for years centuries if need be You are right, but the months of work Never mind, my son We must be prepared to face discouragement and start again Always we must have the courage to start again See, I will tell the others to get ready And so we say goodbye to the first mission, San Gabriel Only to build a new and greater one And they did build a new and greater mission, San Gabriel upon the present site First a small house in which the Padres kept their uncomfortable quarters started, around it clustered the homes of the Indian new fights and later the Spanish settlers who came from Mexico, laboriously the work was carried on, and slowly the great mission took shape Then, one day in 1797 Ah Padres, when is this? How is the work proceeding today, Sergeant? Very badly Padres, I don't know what is wrong Only this handful of the workmen have appeared the rest I cannot find I know they will be late, they are holding an election today An election? See, for Alcalde of the mission Padres, what does this mean? It means the Governor Navy has had his way He claims that we were not meant to have jurisdiction over the Indians, that they must govern themselves Yeah, but it is well known that they are not able to govern themselves Only a few years ago they were naked savagery I know, but the Governor has had his way and today they hold their first election Padres, I don't like it It'll mean trouble, already they are too unruly See, oh, here come some of them now the election must be over Well, they better watch out I will stand for a little bit Padres, Buenos Dias Buenos Dias, my son, you are finished See, now can go to work building hut for beautiful lady in picture A beautiful lady You remember the beautiful lady's picture on the banner, Sergeant? Oh, see Padres here understands that the church we are building is for worship of her and her son See, hut for beautiful lady Well, if you ever want to finish you'd better not waste time in elections Get busy and build it Go on, get to work, my son You must not be harsh with these simple children Padres, I know you like this one especially because he's named after you but he's one of the worst of the lazy wretches He never gets his quarter of work finished Sergeant You must remember to watch how well he works and not worry about how long it takes him Pedro makes each brick with loving care Here's is the work of a craftsman and it is good work That is more important than speed I might have known you would excuse him He's just lazy, he in his fence one And you are impatient, my son Too impatient And where is your fence one, Pedro? One no work today What? What do you mean he won't work today? He not feel good But who told him he didn't have to report here anyway? Me, me tell him Pedro, what do you mean? How can you tell one he doesn't have to work today? You have not that authority? Yes, me tell him Me, Alcalde now Electuré Why you, I'll put you both in the stock No, no Law says no touch, Alcalde Me chief here now No can touch Is that so? Just for that you'll get the life No, no my son He is right You law exempts the Alcalde from our punishment We can do nothing You mean we must say nothing? Our authority is gone? See, perhaps it is for the best I cannot say No, nothing but evil will come from this You wait and see And the effects of Governor Navy's new law Was to bring evil to the mission But the Indians were not ready for self-government Under a strange and foreign civilization They became unruly and insolent And as more white settlers poured into the land The simple Indians were easily corrupted and debauched But work proceeded at the mission In spite of handicaps The buildings sprang up Fields and orchards bore fruit Heads of cattle multiplied and fragged The Indians learned the arts of the white man Filling the soil Carrying for cattle Waving, sowing Making soap and grinding meal But as time went on Friction between soldiers and Indians and settlers Caused periodic bad feeling It was at one such time Padre See, my son My Pedro Sergeant Why do you have Pedro bound? I just wanted you to know that your favorite here Is not so righteous as you think I'm about to give him the lash What has he done? He struck one of my soldiers It was lucky he was not killed in return Is this true, Pedro? I am inclined to believe My Pedro struck your soldier He had good reason to Padre I mean it Those men of yours have been unnecessarily harsh toward the Indians I cannot approve of it My men are harsh only when these savages try their Insulin tricks They have become impossible since they have their own elections I cannot agree with you And I am not pleased by this action of yours That can't be helped Padre He gets the lash nevertheless Sergeant Padre In the spirit of that great anniversary Let him go We must be punished Padre Or soon we will have no authority at all No, no, me go away Out here, step, you even come back here Pedro, Pedro, come back Don't run away, come back Well, Sergeant What do you find? At last you learn the truth about your precious Pedro You'll be sorry to hear that he's no better than the worst of them You have found him I know he's gone alright But I know where he is In the mountains See, my men have definite word That he joined the band of renegade Indians in the mountains The very tribe that is always robbing us So, you see I see But the wayward son will return, Sergeant I know that he will come back And I will welcome him Pedro, Pedro She Why you, sir, sit There is fire like dead man Son Gabriel Son Gabriel? No more home You'll never go back They kill you But soldiers Pedro Pedro, you feel better when you ride with us Out on raid Oh, that good You no feel good sitting at campfire Staring I know like ride on raid It's not right Chief say right Chief better man than Padre No, I think Padre better man He say not right I feel not right You feel different when you try You try once, then see Pedro They no want Indian at son Gabriel They say you bad You forget son Gabriel Can never go back You bad Indian now So You like us You stay here Go on raid, feel better Come Come see what things took on last raid Come to campfire with riders Look I stay here Come look Riders raid son Gabriel Bring many things Bring many things Come look I come look Look much food Sticks of gold That picture paint on skin On roll One That picture of beautiful lady From church son Gabriel That beautiful lady Build up for Riders take it son Gabriel Bring here No cannot take Must take back son Gabriel Pedro you loco keep here No beautiful lady take back son Gabriel Must take Padre say she great lady Must be in great hut Me take back Chief want you no take She me take Pedro chief no like kill you Me take me take son Gabriel Give No stop Pedro Pedro come back you'll be killed Pedro Down from the mountains ran a solitary Indian A vengeful brothers For the mission of son Gabriel he ran For the little settlement or even then The Padre prayed Bless these children of yours Keep them safe and happy And bring them the peace and good will You promised for us all And for the wayward Bring them back to the fold For this great celebration This Christmas Eve It was Christmas Eve that son Gabriel And the Indians joined In celebration with the white settlers Great was the rejoicing For after attending Mass at the church The whole population reveled In games and dancing The favorite sport of the children and grown ups are like Was to join in performing the pastores Or pastoral play In which the players went from door to door Acting out the story Of the nativity for each family at home The children followed along With their own version Replete with the devil chasing the poor travelers The performers, young and old Were then invited inside for refreshment Dancing was the main feature Of any Spanish fiesta And music in live and every gathering A great fiesta of Christmas brought dancers From the whole countryside To join in the celebration Beautiful clothes, dark-eyed maidens With flashing eyes All made the great hall A rainbow of merry color And in another part of the settlement Another party gathered for a game A great pile of candy and nuts Was tied into a sack Hung from the rafter Then, one by one, the young men Blindfolded, swung at it with a stick It was a Christmas version of Blind man's bluff called And great fun for everybody Once the bag was struck Its contents were spilled out upon the floor And a mad scramble took place Ah, you take it in What's the matter? Why does everyone suddenly stop? It's the Indian Pedro Mother of the duels Covered with blood Pedro, what is the matter? What has happened? Take to Padre Senior, he's hurt He looks hurried To Padre See, right away, Pedro Make way there, make way It's Pedro, the Indian Pedro, my son Yeah, place him here on the car See, he looks badly hurt, Padre Blood Let me see, no thank goodness I don't think it's as serious as it looks He's probably suffering more From exhaustion than from the blow Padre, Pedro See, my son, what is it? Me, sorry It's all right, Pedro You shouldn't have run away, but Must come Bring beautiful lady Beautiful lady He was carrying this, Padre It's a banner of the virgin To stone Beautiful lady In great hut Safe See, Pedro, safe And she will keep you safe too In her great hut Me, not bad Indian If all of us trade no farther From the path than you This world would be far happier My children Let us all kneel And give thanks for the return Of a lost lamb to the poor On this happy Christmas Eve To all of us, Christmas is And will remain even through the most Difficult times ahead A day of reverent celebration An occasion for the expression Of sincere goodwill toward our families And fellow citizens In the spirit of the season, each member Of the entire title insurance and trust company Organization joins tonight With his fellows in extending to you The best wishes for a merry Christmas As a personal expression Of this wish, the title insurance And trust company's men's chorus A group of 24 employees of the company Under the direction of Charles Monroe Presents the Christmas Carol Joy to the world Ladies and gentlemen, by transcription This is the address of the title insurance And trust company of Los Angeles Next week we recreate something Of the fascinating story of the Rancho Buenos Aires The land on which the truly modern cities Of westward village and westward hills And the campus of UCLA stand Be sure to hear it And now, this is your wandering Barquero Frank Graham saying Feliz Pasquale Merry Christmas to each And every one of you And until next week Merry Christmas The romance of the Ranchos A presentation of the title insurance And trust company of Los Angeles Featuring Frank Graham as the wandering Vecchero is dramatized by John Duckle And produced by Ted Bliss With special music arranged by Irwin Yew Bob LeMond speaking and wishing You all a very merry Christmas This is the Columbia Broadcasting System


Hi everyone, Sean with jaspyscasebrakes.com and jaspys.com for personal breaks doing a personal break of 2020 Top's Chrome Baseball hobby for Jake. He's already picked out his box. So let's get ripping. Top's Chrome has been pretty exceptional this year for me. There you go Jake. I do not know Flash. I know that the Super Fracture Auto got pulled on release day I believe. I feel like if somebody had pulled that though they would easily post about it or have talked about it. Remember a lot of people buy cases of this stuff and just let it sit in their back closet. I mean there's chances that those cards will never be pulled. Yeah I mean not only word of mouth but Flash somebody would post about it. Like if you hit a Super Fracture one of one, Luis Robert, even if it's not the autograph, you don't think you're going to tell somebody that you've hit it or somebody's going to find out that you've hit it? Whether it's from like a breaker or like a local card shop or whatever. There you go. Jake's got the right thought. Jake's saying it's going to be right here. Oh see Jake Flash in the Instagram chat said that's why he was asking because he was feeling it in this box. So Jake this could be a life changing moment for us. This is Top's Chrome Hobby and it's $269 a box. It's available at jaspys.com or personal site. Right there. Let's see the name. Well there's the base and then you got a Queeno 35th anniversary refractor. Nice start already. John Mean refractor and then Kyle Lewis rookie refractor. Jake you are hitting tonight man. Logan Allen prism. Sean Murphy freshman Flash refractor. Victor Reyes refractor.  Sean Murphy. Michael Baez. Austin Riley. Justin Dunn rookie refractor. Aaron Savale. Eric Hosmer prism. Did you get another orange? You did. That's another orange there Jake. Let's see which one this one is. That other one was an orange wave. This is just an orange. So that's going to be numbered out of 25. Ready? That's an awesome card. Not a rookie but look how cool that looks. Ramon Laureano. That thing is awesome dude. That's numbered 5 out of 25. What a cool looking card. And then right behind that freshman Flash, Luis Robert refractor. Logan Webb, Alberto Montesey refractor. William Zostadillo refractor and Matt Dice. Such a classic card of Ramon Laureanos. Jake people. We do this all the time. Nice first half though. Very nice first half man. That's what I'm feeling Adam. Jake the Adam on the Instagram feed thinks that this is a hot box. It's got to be. Still got two autos coming too. We haven't even seen an auto and already this is a great box. Cool. Good luck. Second half for you. Somebody's calling a trout and a Robert auto for you Jake. That'd be some type of miracle. That'd be some type of miracle. AJ Puck, 35th anniversary rookie refractor. Rhys Hoskins refractor. Urquiti. Bo Bechet base. Carlos Correa prism. Robelle Garcia. Chris Paddock. Brendan McKay. Andres Munoz. Jordan Yamamoto. And then there's the second auto Tyler Alexander for the Tigers. And then Jesus Lizardo. So another two pitcher autos but overall another nice break man. That was a 2020 Tops Chrome Baseball Hobby Box for Jake available on jaspys.com for all personal breaks. I'm Sean jaspyscasebreaks.com group and case breaks jaspys.com all personal breaks. We'll see you next time.


So, what conditions we know to verify it is a positive, it is a transient or null recurrent. So, now that under lambda is going to be greater than or equals to mu, I know that my Markov chain is cannot be positive recurrent. It has to be either transient or null recurrent, but I know a condition if I somehow know that my DTMS is transient that is enough for me, right. If I know it is transient, if it cannot be transient, it is null recurrent. If it is transient, it cannot be null recurrent, right. So, let us try to verify my Markov chain is going to be transient or even recurrent. I know if it is a recurrent, then lambda is going to be greater than or equals to mu, it has to be necessarily null recurrent, right. It cannot be positive recurrent. So, what is the result I know in that case? So, we already know that if I have a reduced transition probability matrix Q and if I can if I have a y equals to Qy solution, if that y happens to be 0 vector, then I know it is going to be recurrent, right. So, maybe let us try to apply that. So, in this case if I just know if it is recurrent, it is enough, right. If it is no recurrent, it has to be null recurrent and if it is not recurrent, I already know it has to be transient. So, now consider Q to be TPM restricted on 1, 2, like this. So, I have just excluded state 0 from my state space and now I have my Q to be restricted to these sets here and now let us try to look at the solution of Q equals to Qi. And if my y equals to Qi solution happens to be here 0, then I know it is going to be recurrent, right. So, let us verify whether that is true. So, in this radio transition probability matrix, so again just for notation, I am going to write this P to denote lambda into 1 minus mu and Q to denote mu into 1 minus lambda because these terms come to us many times. So, just write them as P and Q. Now, if I want to write the solution for this y equals to Qi, what I am going to do, what I will get is simply, I am just going to write a simplified version, you can verify this and like after doing some manipulation over this, like the way we did when we try to solve pi equals to pi P, what we will end up is yj that is the jth term here can be written as Q by P to the power j minus 1 plus Q by P plus 1 into y1. So, I am just skipping the process like if you just write this iteratively, ok, check this anyway. What we will end up with finally, this iterative equations like where the jth component I could write in terms of y1, ok. So, if you further simplify this, it is Qi2, so let us quickly check that, why is that? So, how is my Q is going to look like? What is my first row is going to be 1 minus P minus Q. So, what is this second row is going to say? It is going to say from 1, I go back to 0, right, so I have removed S, it is going 1 to 1, right. So, this is 1 minus P minus Q and what is the, so I am interested in a row here, right, yes. So, what is the second component? It is going from 1 to state 2, it is just going to be P and after this it is going to be 0 here, right. So, what I will get and now when I multiply it with the row column vector y1, y2 here, I am going to get this into y1 into P y2, right, so that should be correct. And now if you apply the geometry, so again now I have Q by P here, so if I am going to treat it as a geometric progression here with the ratio term Q by P, what is that you are going to get here? 1 minus Q by P to the power j divided by 1 minus Q by P into y1, right. I have this, I am in the case where lambda is going to be greater than or equals to mu, so further assume, now consider the case only where lambda is equals to mu itself, then I will separately deal with the case when lambda is going to be greater than mu. So, when lambda is equals to mu what happens? When lambda and mu are equal, P and Q are going to be equal, right. So, if P and Q are going to be equal, what is this quantity is going to be? I mean this is 0, but in the, we can just look into this case here before we, it is going to be if P equals to Q equals to P, right, this is simply going to be, this sum is going to be j, j y. So, I mean what I am going to get, y j is equals to j y1 and this is true for all j, okay. Now, here y1 is my free variable and yj depends on that y1, right. Now, let us say you select some y1 with something between 0 and 1 and now my j is all possible values, right, it can be 1, 2, up to, so then in that case there exists some j large enough which will make this yj to be greater than 1, right. Whatever y you have, whatever y1 you are going to choose some positive value, it is going to make yj to be greater than 1 at some point for some j. So, because of that you will end up with the y which is between 0, 1, right. So, I am seeking a solution of this which is in this interval, right, not any y. So, if I start with any y1 positive value, I will end up with yj which are going to be larger than 1 and then in that case my y vector cannot be in this region, is that clear? So because of this, if I want to restrict my all yj's to be within the interval 0, 1, any positive value of y1 will not do. The only possible value y1 I can choose is 0. But if I choose y1 to be 0, all my yj's are going to be 0. So, then y equals to 0 is my solution. So, if y equals to 0 is my solution then what I know? It is recurrent but I already know that it cannot be positive recurrent. So, it has to be null recurrent. Now what happens for the case when lambda is strictly greater than mu? What is that? So, when lambda is going to be strictly greater than mu, so p is going to be greater than q, right. So, if p is going to be greater than q, this ratio here is going to be less than 1 and you will see that if you choose your y1 to be simply 1 minus q by p, all these guys are going to be less than 1, the solution of this. So, if you just start with this y1 equals to 1 minus q by p which is and then club like back here you get yj's. So, notice that here yj's need not sum to 1. All we need is this yj's to be between 0 and 1. So, if you start with this y1 like this, you will end up with all this yj's which are any of positive but you will also notice that they are all strictly less than or equals to 1. But as j tends to infinity, you can see that j tends to infinity, this guy is going to get 0 but 1 minus q p is same as y1 and this yj tends to 1 and we have this is also consistent with our earlier observation, right. The solution will be such that this solution y will be such that either it is going to be all 0 or it will be such that supremum of yi for all i is going to be 1 here, right. So, now the solution is such that as j tends to infinity, this is going to be 1, okay. In summary, yes that is what we said, right. In this case, we have this y vector which is not 0 like this. It is something positive here. Now, we know that if the solution to this is not 0, then it is transient. So, just summarize, so let us write my rho to be lambda by mu. So, what we showed? When rho is strictly less than 1, my DTMC is what? So, when this is, we showed that it is positive recurrent and when it is equals to, sorry, strictly less than 1, when it is equal to 1 and it is greater than 1, that is going to be, okay. Now, coming back to our q example we had. We had a q where customers are joining and they are getting served. Lambda is like arrival rate and mu is like my service rate, right. So, we can think of this ratio lambda by mu as kind of load factor. How much load I am putting into the system, right? When this load is less than 1, what I expect? What I expect like, so when this load is less than 1, what is happening is service is happening at a faster rate compared to the arrival rate, right. So, that means I can flush out the customers faster than they arrive, okay. So, because of this, I expect my q to be positive recurrent here because I am flushing out them, I can expect my state, particular state to be getting visited again and again. That is my state, the number of customers in the q. I can be revisiting those states again and again frequently. Okay, so before this let us focus on the case where lambda is going to be strictly greater than 1. When lambda is going to be strictly greater than 1, what does this imply? You are doing service at a smaller rate compared to the arrival rate, right.  So, when your system is low, what do you expect? So, you expect your q to blow up, right. So, that is why transient. So, what is transient here implying? So, transient is implying you start from any state, you do not come back to that state. So, you start your system in any finite state. That means you will not come back to that finite state again. That means you are going to explode. You start from any finite state, the probability of coming back to that state, there is a positive probability that you will go out of that finite state, right. And this is true for any finite state because the whole DTMC is transient, right. So, you start from any state, finite state, there is a positive probability that you do not return to that state. That means not return to that state means you are basically exploding. And when n equals to your arrival rate is just equal to a service rate, that means you may be able to flush out, but that flushing is happening very, not very often, it is happening very rarely, right. So, there is a possibility that your q can build up at some point. So, if you are a designer of some queuing system or any customer or some processing systems, so where you have to process some requirements, it could be like somebody asking for a ticket or some computer systems asking for some service or whatever jobs that are you have to deal with. So, this is basically saying that I would like to design my system such a way that my service rate has to be larger than my service, my arrival rate. So, arrival rate you can think of job arrivals or whatever jobs could be, I mean computer request or buying tickets or like whatever somebody asking for some particular service. This is what kind of also tell us when my system is going to be stable. If you define your stability to be that my q never blows up, my q will be always take some finite states and it will never blow up. Then if you want to stabilize your q or you want to stabilize your process, your operation, you want to ensure that you want to be better be in this regime positive recurrent. So, even when you just let lambda equals to mu, it is possible that you may not always be in a good state, but if you let lambda rho to be less than 1, you are going to you will keep coming to a finite state. Finite state could be one of the state could be zero state also, right? You will start with a zero state that means you have served everybody, you will keep coming back to that state again and again and that is with high frequency. So, if you do this, you may still come back to that, but that may very happen very infrequently, okay? So, fine. So, this is one example of where a priori knowing what kind of states my DTMC takes, either transient recurrent or null recurrent, I know whether my system is going to be stable or not, okay? And accordingly, if you know some arrival rate, you want to set up your service rate such that that exceeds your arrival rate, okay? Now, so let us look at other examples of where my knowledge of DTMC is going to come to our help. So, how many of you know this PageRank algorithm? Only one? So, all of you do search, right? All of you search engines, right? Now, all of us only know Google search engine because Google is so popular that it has killed all other search engines in the market. So, before that, there were quite a few. And what is the algorithm that works behind the search engines? So, one of the ideas is also derived from this in what we had this invariant probability distributions, pi equals to pi p. So, let us try to understand how is that? So, in internet, you have so many pages, right? HTML pages. And you are looking for some content which will be available at some HTML page. So, if you give that what do I expect, what you want actually? You want you to Google or any search engine to list, give the link that has the most relevant information you are searching for, right? So, maybe if you just want to talk about IIT Bombay, you want Google to first show IIT Bombay homepage rather than some blog talking about IIT Bombay, right? So, Google has to somehow rank all these pages so that it gives you the most relevant information. So, how to do that? So, obviously, you want to kind of do ranking of these pages based on that you want to list. Now, how to do the ranking? So, can anybody think of some simple way of ranking pages? So, one possibility to rank them based on the what they call it as, let me see the term, what they call as how many page, how many other HTML pages that links to this page for this information. So, if other pages are talking about IIT Bombay, how many are them referencing to this page? So, the page which is most cited, you want to bring them, right? Suppose, let us say you are searching for some research paper or some you want to understand some topic, let us say for time being DTMC. When you search on DTMC, let us say there is one paper which has been heavily cited by many researcher and that you like to read or something who had just used one DTMC word somewhere you want to use it. So, you want to definitely use the ones which is most cited, right? So, because that has been more popular and possibly that is the most informative about DTMCs. So, in that way the ones which have high citations can be preferred, right, when you want to rank. So, the one guy with the highest citation can come first, then the next one like that in that way you can order. Now, the question is how to do this or do the citation count itself? For example, as I said I created one page and I myself created some thousand other page beside my work. So, let us say I want to increase my citation.  So, then when Google is just counting, right, how many guys are referring to this? So, that will automatically boost up this crappy paper up. So, I also do not want this. So, what I want is the guys who are more citations who are referring to this should be isolated more, right. So, suppose some thousand crappy papers are referring to this crappy, I do not want to give equal weightage to all of them. So, maybe among them maybe there are some authentic papers also good ones which are referring to this, maybe they want to be given higher preference. So, how can we do this? So, when I think these people were all thinking about how to do such kind of ranking, they possibly realize that I mean they realize that this is nothing but a solution to pi equals to pi p. Why is that? Suppose let us say I have this several loads, think of each one of them some HTML pages, they have a cross linking like they refer to each whatever manner, just think of some referencing they are happening and each one of them have some importance, okay. Suppose I am going to think of, I am going to think of each one of them as one particular state, each HTML page as a state and then pi to be the some connections basically. So, if there is a connection between one link to another based on that I can define the appropriate probabilities, we will just mention how it is. So, then we can think about that as pi equals to pi p where I am going to just again, what is this pi? This is pi i of p, this is ij or ji. So, this is going to be ij, then this is going to be j, right. So, pi j equals to summation pi i pi ij. So, here it is telling how many pages that are linking to me, right? Yeah. So, I am interested in a particular j let us say, now this is telling how many of them are connecting to me that is captured by this p and then pi is going to give me the associated weight. So, my weight pi j is going to be higher if the pi j's that are connected to me also higher, right? So, my preference is going to be higher if the other preference guide are also connecting to me. Does this capture, this equation capture that? So, suppose let us say I have given weights some preference to all the pages in the net and they are connecting to me. If the preferences are higher and they are connecting to me, my preferences will also be boosted, right? If a high preference guide connects to me, my preference will also get boosted, right? So, in that way you can try to capture the importance of the page you have in the internet and based on those importance that is now captured by this pi j, you can order the pages and then display to you, okay? So, let us just in summary now how to come up with this pi j is the question, right? Okay? So, let me write the algorithm for this. So, this is a one crude version of the algorithm. So, what you do? You take all the possible pages and draw a link between page i to page j if page i is referring to page j, okay? And then take a particular page and see that how many pages it is referring to. Suppose if it is referring to k pages, it has a k outgoing links and give a weight of 1 by k on each of these links, okay? So, that is it. Now you are not giving any importance there on each, you are just treating all the outgoing link equally and now once you have this, you have a P matrix and then solve for pi equals to pi j and on that basis you are going to rank your pages based on the values of pi you are going to get, okay? So, if you have a web page, you can just try to see what is the page rank of your web page. I do not know if Google displays it for all pages, but if you are interested just see what is the page rank of yours and you can just also find out which page has the highest page rank that tells which is the most visited web page, okay? So, this is a very crude level thing, the page rank, but it has, it is not that if you just simply do like this, it is going to give you the best solution. So, just to motivate what could be the issues, so just for the simplicity, just look into this one example. So, let us say there are three states like this and M and these are the transitions. So, I am just drawing three pages and let us say I have been assigned the weights in this fashion. So, if you solve this DTMC for its limiting distribution, what you are going to get is simply, so I am just quickly writing this, the equation you are going to get is so pi of A is going to be half pi of 1 and that is only incoming link there and then pi of M is going to be pi of M plus half pi of A. So, if you just solve this what you are going to get and now you anyway, you also have this constraint. So, if you just solve this you are going to get pi A equals to 0 and once pi A equals to 0 then you are going to get also pi N equals to 0 and then you are going to get pi M equals to 0, pi M equals to 1 this in this case. So, what is happening in this? If you just blindly take this invariant probability metric, what you are basically doing is you are basically trying to give most preference to this dead trap here. So, I am going to call this is a trap here because once you hit this link it is always self, it is a it is redirecting to itself, it has a self loop. So, because of this you will end up with giving a preference to this the most whereas ideally you do not want it possibly give a preference to this because this guy has at least link from it has more connection than this right. So, if you are just going to do like this you will not end up with a good probability distribution. So, there are to improve this there are other methods that are some are ad hoc and some are I think well developed. So, one possible thing is when you have things like this you try to redistribute the weights one possibility is whatever the. So, right now this guy is not referring to anybody right you forcefully when you get trapped here you try to come out of this how you are going to come out of this you try to deliberately add an outgoing link to this and assign some probability to this. So, one possibility is what they call it as taxing it. So, what you do is take out some percent of the tax that is some probability from each of this link and distribute that tax to all among all the states. So, one possibility is let us say I am going to tax each of this links by 70 percent. What I mean by that is all these probabilities I am going to reduce to 70 percent. So, in that case this probability is going to be 0.7 everything is going to be 0.7 this is going to be 0.7 this is also going to be 0.7 and this is going to be 0.7 and now I have said about 30 percent from each of this links right that I am going to distribute among the states. So, now, so this so I have three possible things right from here to here and also self link.  So, whatever the 70 percent I have 30 percent I have taken out now I have just redistributed and I will do the same thing yeah. So, I have just taken out 30 percent from here right and I have just redistributed. So, it will nothing I have changed and now if you again so I have taken 30 percent out of this right. So, I add 0.1 here and this one also I will add 0.1 and also add a self loop here with 0.1 and similarly this guy also initially did not have any link to this and also this. So, I will add 0.1 here, 0.1 here and the remaining 0.1 here. Now, if you do this kind of perturbation through this taxation on this, now we will end up with another set of transition probabilities here and on that we will end up with a new set of values which I am just writing here which is at least better than what we had previously right. So, now it has kind of distributed the weights, but still as you can see that this new probabilities will depend on how much is the tax that has been put. If you are going to change this tax you are going to get a different one and the bad thing is again if you are going to tax heavy make the tax large then so suppose you are going to tax 100 percent right that means you are basically equally distributing the links all of them and you are going to make the tax 0 very low then again you are going to be coming back to a solution which is close to this. So one has to appropriately choose this taxes so that you get the correct ranking and there are many improved versions based on this. So, we will just leave it here. So, basically what we say is that in some way by looking at this equation pi equals to pi p if I am going to choose my pi matrix appropriately. So, this will the solution of this will yield somehow the preference which captures the preference of others right and in that way this is going to be a good ranking. So, let us stop here and with this we will just conclude this DTMC discussion in the next two classes I want to just talk about a little bit renewal theory. So, renewal theory is kind of you see that some of the concept we have already discussed and they are just a more generalized versions of that.