Welcome! This is Jenkins Platform's Sieg meeting of May 23rd, 2023. Welcome! Today we have with us Damien Duportal, Kenneth Salerno, Mark White, and myself. Welcome! So today, on the Open Action Items, we'll talk briefly about something that does not progress, but that's not really a problem. It's the Docker container image for the Blue Ocean product. And we have to say at each and every meeting that it's not progressing, but someday it will eventually... And we have some progress on it. No way! Yes, we do, because there are now four approvals on the warning message in Jenkins Core that will allow us, that's the beginning of the step we need in order to kill that container image. At least for me to feel comfortable that we killed it with honor by telling people it's unsupported. So yes, there will be more changes needed. So we have several weeks before it'll be visible in a weekly and probably won't be dead, final dead until about the same time as we do CentOS 7. But we have the tooling now that we need to do the job. Excellent! Yeah, we have the tooling. As we should say precisely, we almost have the tooling to do the job when it's merged. Then we'll have the tooling and another pull request will update the tooling to do a little more. Sure. Cool, got it. It's almost a running joke, you know. We have to talk about container deprecation and then you come with some good news. Okay, too bad for my running gag. Now, two weeks ago, Damian, you told us about code factorization that you were working on. And I think I saw some more pull request this week and the week before about that subject. So would you have anything to share with us? Yes, the first phase that I described last week of factorizing between GDK version on each repository that has been already approved done, fixed, deployed, fixed again, fixed again. And it should be okay on agent and inbound agents, on SSH agent as well. So we were able to decrease the amount of code of three times. So that will ease the factorization. So now I'm entering the second phase that should be finished until next SIG meeting that merging inbound agent inside agents. We keep updating both images, Genkin slash agent and Genkin slash inbound agent, but they would have a release cycle that should be the same for both when you have a new change that will build and deploy both images at the same time. That's the scope I'm targeting, which does not change anything for the end users except that the source code of one of the Docker inbound agent repository once walking and release at least one or twice should be put as archived and deprecated and everything should be on the Docker agent repository. That's the target for the next time. I have everything ready right now. Walked a lot on the windows to link, but yeah, that's the status and then we will do a report and I will bring on the table the proposal for the next step after this is done. But right now that shouldn't change anything. Cool. Good job on that. That was definitely necessary before merging everything. At least that's my understanding, which is very partial to say so least. Now you have also worked on alpine images so we can use update cli and gelling with me. Thanks a lot for your guidance, your patience and your time. So we're progressing. We've already done what was it Docker agent, which is now using update cli and we're hoping to fix SSH agent sooner or later. We'll see. Mark, now back to you. CentOS 7 early end of life. I know you'd like to get rid of CentOS 7. So what are the fresh news? So the poll request has four approvals not yet been merged, but with four approvals, I think we're very close to getting it merged. And so the important dates for people here are to be aware that users who use the CentOS 7 image containers will see this warning message pop up already. If they're running weekly, they'll see it beginning May 30th. So roughly two weeks a week from now users who are running the long term support release who are running weekly on the operating system without a container if they're on CentOS 7 will also see it. Now LTS, they won't see it until August because that's when that's the first opportunity for 407 to be visible to any users of LTS. We can certainly actively promote it, but even when they see it, they'll have three months warning before we declare official end of life November the 16th. Sounds reasonable. Yeah. Good news. Thank you. So we still have to replace CentOS 7 usages in our containers. Yeah. And that's a complicated one, right? Because one of the things we do is the base JDK that we receive from Eclipse Temeron is based on a CentOS 7 image. We use it in all sorts of places. We and all we're doing is we're using the JDK from it. So we're not actually using that operating system, but it feels odd to have a reference to CentOS 7 in our container definition when we don't want to support CentOS 7. However, finding the alternative choice of container from Temeron is not as clear to me right now. So, sorry, I didn't get it. So is the JDK by Temeron built on CentOS 7 or are we extracting a JDK built with whatever operating system, which is part of the CentOS 7 image? So I don't know how to answer the first question. Is it built on CentOS 7? Because I don't worry about how Temeron builds it. That's up to them. But they definitely package it into a container whose name has dash CentOS 7 on the end of the container name. And we use that packaging of that container to get Java 11 so we can run J-link from that image. And so we're just using their container as a packaging step in our construction of our final container. But we use that not just for CentOS 7. We also use that for Almalenix 8 and for the UBI 8 image. And it really makes sense in those cases because CentOS 7 is a predecessor of Red Hat Linux 8. But again, it needs more work. Just a reminder is that the risks are really low of changing as soon as possible from CentOS whatever version for the Temeron extract to whatever UBI Linux because the J-link step will take care of resolving the dynamic runtime dependencies in Slashlib. So the generated package that we use and then copy, which is stripped from the debug symbol and multiple optimization should also be completely compliant if you have exactly the same operating system on both images. So I don't know for Almalenix but for UBI since I remember, I might be wrong but I'm almost sure I remember seeing an Eclipse Temer in UBI definition. So that one should be quite easy. The Almalenix is more the one I'm not sure. Well, an Alma is just a relatively simple derivative of Red Hat Enterprise Linux 8 so it's like UBI. But the UBI image I've seen is UBI 9 but I like your observation Damian and I think it should be easy enough to do the assessment and the test to assure that yes, the image we get out of a change of container looks the same actually as the image we got before we switched from CentOS 7 to the UBI 9 base container because I would assume Temer is probably not doing a different build on UBI 9. I bet they've got a single build that they package on the multiple Docker containers. Okay, we can look at that just point. We have another solution which is stop relying on the Eclipse Temer image and instead download the GDK from Adoptium website with checksum control and we can keep the multi-stage build now meaning from Almalenix, whatever image you download and you run g-link to strip so you keep the same pattern to have to gain this precious megabytes and that means you will be sure with that case of being able to not depend on the ability of Eclipse Temer information to deliver Docker image which are always published later than the Temer in itself. Okay, so you would be okay if there were a switch to still use multi-stage builds but use one of the one of the phases of that multi-stage build would be download the binary from the distribution from Temer and unpack it and then run J-link. Exactly, the only pattern here is that tracking the version of the GDK might be a bit more touchy. That might require switching absolutely from Dependabot to Update CLI or Renovabot because I don't know if Dependabot is able to get exactly while Update CLI and Renovabot are. So that's the only prong answer. Yeah, that's really interesting. I must say, but I don't think I understand everything. When you say our containers mark, what are these? Jenkins controller. Yeah, the Jenkins controller. Sorry, I should be more precise. The Jenkins controller container definition uses a layered approach where it first brings in a layer that it calls something like Java and that layer is the thing that it uses to copy in the JDK and then it runs J-link on that. Okay, thank you. It looks like what we have in the agents. I must say, if I'm not mistaken, Damian. Yep, there is an opportunity here to see we have a common foundation for all the images here. That's something to have in mind. I don't say we have an immediate actionable because that's quite some issue, but still we could think about that, but yes, you are correct. That's the same thing we do on all the images. Yeah, could be reused. Yeah, because I've been working lately with update P and so on and the multi-stage Docker for the agent. So I don't think I'm able to do that, but maybe I could have a look at least open an issue so that we don't forget it and then maybe address it later on if you don't mind or if you want to open the issue or do the PR. Anybody is welcome. Of course. Thanks a lot, Mark. That was the explanation was much needed for me, at least. Thanks a lot. And then so we'll have a block person on things and there was seven end of life in Jenkins. And I guess you already have it all written ready to post. No, but, but I will write it with pleasure. Yeah. Why is smiling? There will be there will be there will be serious joy while I'm writing it. How about that? I don't get it. Okay. And then we have a few other petering system and of life near us this year. So Alpine, Fedora Ubuntu, Alpine 315, Fedora, and so on. So I guess all of them, I've had a look lately at your pull request mark. And I think that all of that will be handled by the code that you provided, which is not yet merged. If I'm not mistaken. Well, the, so the, because there's a six month notification window by default. That means beginning with 407 May 31st. The top five of those will already immediately begin seeing warnings. So Alpine 315. Now we don't deliver any containers based on 315 anymore. But if someone's making the mistake of running on Alpine 315, they'll see it. And we certainly do deliver to people who are running Ubuntu 1804. And they will begin seeing that with, with the, with next week's release, assuming that pull request merges. Okay. I won't be naming names, but I have someone who always tells me friends don't let friends run latest, you know, so people may use a fixed version, but maybe they don't have a bit key or dependent about whatever. So some of them may have the surprise from 407 thing. Oh my, I'm using a deprecated container of some sort. That's the, that's our hope. We would really be pleased if people saw the message and actually took action on it. That would be a really great result. Yeah, I confess that I run N minus one Fedora for that reason. I'm always six months behind. And so long as you, so as you keep that pattern, it's a healthy pattern. It's when you become 18 months behind that it really hurts. So you become 12 months behind that it hurts. Right. And minus one with the latest patches. Right. Cool. Thanks. By the way, Kenneth, because you were talking, thanks a lot for all the work you did for PPC 64. Because your controller PR finally got merged. Since the last meeting. So congrats on that. And welcome on board. Then I've got what, yeah, go ahead, please. Oh, thank you. Thanks for all the support. Oh, thanks for coming. I'm giving some help. I would say in French. Now we have a list. A la préverse because we have lots of updates on the darker images of the agents. So I saw lots of releases for the CCH agent. Lots. Meaning two. I think. So there were lots of fixes about windows. I saw on it. For example, Damian, you do. You did a lot of work regarding JDK JDJ. Sorry. And of course we bumped things to depend about. Debian on a more recent version for the Docker agent. Mark, you'll change something. So that we get the right version number in the all pine container. And then Damian and I took. Your work and change it for that. Now we have the all pine version. Updated things to update clip. So that should work now. And by the way, I think somewhere in here. Yeah, we have now the alpine linux version to three 18. Thanks to our combined work. That's pretty cool. Kenneth, you got upgraded as code owner for the Debian Docker file. Congrats. Yes. And we also had some JDK version tracking working now, which is pretty cool. And for the Docker inbound agent, the parent image agent has been bumped and bumped and bumped. So now we are having the 15 version of the parent. And Damian, once again, you made some work about JDK factorization though. Now all of them have the same JDK definition. They all are working with the same tag. Anyhow. Anything to add? Go ahead. Anyone wants to help. I've tried to open atomic issues for the SSH agents about different elements that made improvements. I will try to do the same each time I see something because that will help. I wouldn't say beginners because that's still most of the time complex issues, but any maintainers or people with Docker skills could get started if they want to contribute on these elements. Yeah, I wouldn't say being a beginner would be a major issue because there is help from the community nonetheless. I took an issue that was way too big for me, but with your guidance, for example, it's progressing and I hope to get it merged in a few weeks from now. So all is possible. I don't want to use your time. So if people don't know anything about Docker and Jenkins, of course, that's not a good idea to start trying to resolve an issue. But if you've got, if you know something about Docker and Jenkins and the agents and so on, and maybe about update CLEE, that could be done. That one could be a good first step for beginners or people who want to get started. We still have dependencies that are not tracked on each image. I'm thinking right now on the Git LFS version, for instance. I don't want to go on the Git loop or because that one is a complicated topic. The Git LFS, for instance, is an example of dependencies that are installed on all the images, but that should be tracked with a system like Renovabot or update CLEE already in place. Yes, you're right. And I've seen an issue about dedicated tracking with update CLEE, for example, so that's something that could be done by somebody who doesn't have that merge. Absolutely. Anyone interested can get it. Second element that I forgot to put on the table is that we have one major change on the way we deliver the controller image. Now it's based by tag. We create a tag and the tag triggers the release. We don't have anymore the script that do things because it was a pain for the infrastructure port. And right now the question that we discussed earlier today on infrastructure SIG is if, whether we should give permission of release members to be a maintainer on the Genkin CI slash Docker repository on GitHub, so they could create the tag manually, which is the case today. Or if the infrastructure team can work on automating the tag creation, that's the road we want to take. But maybe we will fail or we won't have time. In that case, we will need the maintainer to create the tag at least once a week after the weekly release and the person in charge of the LTS release of the code. That will be a temporary measure during the transition. And second thing, we realize that since... Yeah, sorry. Raising hand, sorry Damien. Before we go off of that one, we've got an immediate situation with the 2.406 release. Alex and I discovered that the change that I had preemptively merged four or five hours ago was necessary but not sufficient. And therefore we merged a new change to 2.406 or to the current master branch and a build has just started. We are therefore probably three or four hours away from having that build complete. The challenge is three or four hours away from us is a bicycle with me on it. So I won't be ready to apply that tag. I will apply the tag after I get back, but it could be five or six hours from now before that tag is actually applied. Don't panic if in the worst case, the 2.406 container image waits until tomorrow. Thanks for the notice. Yeah, that's one of the major issue we have right now. Sorry for this one. But that allowed us to deliver away more in months. I will come back on the Jenkins controller next design meeting with two major questions for your alert. First one is to start having weekly branch and an LTS branch. Maybe not named like that, but to have the Docker image build base just to be sure that we don't update the same thing at the same time because LTS need to be LTS and need to be treated even on the Docker image. And the tagging version that that will be another topic, that will be another topic. Second major topic I was reminded earlier today about the Jenkins CI Docker inbound agents plural form repository. That's also some homemade images for agents with some popular languages such as Ruby, Go, etc. There were there weren't really a consensus during the past year about that repository, but no one is maintaining it except one user that did a pull request a few months ago and the user reminded us that this change wasn't delivered to the Docker hub for good reason and infrastructure. We are not deploying these images on trusted CI since at least one year on the half. So we will take care of delivering that change now because the user did a contribution that we merged. I want to raise the topic and people to think about I would want to include in the depreciation program that we are putting in place the depreciation of these elements because it's dangerous to run these images at home. No one is maintaining them. We don't know the version. I'm not even sure Python has been removed for the version too. It's too much work and no one stepped up. I already asked people complaining that we wanted to deprecate and then suddenly when we asked for maintainer everyone started to be silent. So I think it's dangerous for the community to keep these elements and I would want to advocate for either by default deprecating them unless someone stepped in to maintain these elements and by maintaining that mean ensuring that we keep the languages up to date even go along. GDKs in Boundary John Burrante, Ruby, Python, PowerShell and there is another Terraform I think. So I propose to deprecate it. Think about that. One of the proposals I had was to write down a Genkins.io webpage maybe part of the GSOC program or not but at least start with the read me here that say if you need these images then here are Dockerfile example that you should follow. I mean it's still the Dockerfile out there. People can build themselves and host themselves but we shouldn't have to worry about these images because they have opinions that no one use them almost. Okay, thank you Damian. No one uses them almost makes me think of the last subject but I don't think we'll have the time to dread that. I'm sorry, you opened the door. So on those container images, what was I... Oh, we have a page already on Genkins.io that talks about Java requirements, that talks about Windows requirements, that talks about Linux requirements. I think it might benefit us to have one that talks about container requirements and what policy we have in terms of containers that we are willing to watch and containers we're not maintaining. And our expectation that containers that the Genkins project delivers have active maintainers because containers without active maintainers are not healthy. Same idea as the plug-in ill score but for containers. Yeah, I agree. Do we have an exhaustive list of all the containers that we deliver in supply? I can get you one based on the Docker HubExport. We can look at the Docker HubExport and see from there. And I think in that article Damian, you want to link to the hacking doc of the Inbound agent because this way you don't have to rewrite those instructions. Yes, good point. Absolutely, that will avoid duplicating information and will be always up to date. Exactly, and if we change our steps in one, we remember it's all in one place. I have to say if you're interested to help, I wouldn't say no because as you can hear, my French accent and you can bet that my French writing in English is not the best one. The mark can confirm. But yeah, having people English natives would help and also with a different point of view because things are in my head. I'm trying to structure them and it's not very well structured within. So having an external someone outside my brain would help a lot for this one. Yeah, I can help you. I think if we work together to put together that matrix of what's supported and what's not, and then I could help you with the wording around it. That would be wonderful. I'm going to start the exhaustive list then, which will be the same subject as the Docker Hub stats. I was able to see that the export that I can get as an infrastructure administrator on the Docker Hub are anonymous. So having a shared spreadsheet where we put the CSV data every month, we have two kind of data that can be get the statistics per image and per tags for each image of the downloads. So this information could be interesting to take decisions. So my proposal is to start the document and to put everything and I share it with you so we can start reviewing it and discuss that in the next meeting if it's okay for you. And that includes the exhaustive list of images, of course. That could be a starter for us again. Yeah, good idea. Great. We're already one minute late. Would anyone have anything to add a question to ask, comment something? Actually, I need you to rewind on the notes because I inserted something earlier in the notes after we passed them. Okay, let me know which one. Oops, back up just a little... Whoa, right there, just above what's been done. It's the in progress thing. Right there, whoa. Nope, nope. Sorry, further down. After CentOS 7, end of life. Remaining work. What has been done, yeah. Okay. Proposal to switch Alma Linux container from 8 to 9 is open. Oh, cool. Damian and I have been discussing it in the controller because people should be aware it would be nice to include that in the LTS change log with 2.401.1 next week because LTS change logs are a great place to put that kind of thing. But that would mean we would need to merge it before next Tuesday so it'd be visible in weekly and then visible in the change on Wednesday as well in LTS. So just be aware. By the way, Mark, because I wasn't... My message was confused. But my proposal was to switch that pair into adding a new Alma Linux 9 first because that one can be merged quite quickly while removal of the existing Alma Linux 8 might trigger more difficulties. That could be slowed down. While the first one, as soon as we have a new version now we don't have the issues that slow down, can it work? Now that we have fixed that problem we can quickly deliver a new Alma Linux 9 and start testing as part of the weekly process. So the LTS could be focused on the removal of the 8 and if we don't have the time then we can target the next LTS for the removal without breaking people's usages. Mark, what packages are people using in Alma and CentOS that they're not getting in UBI? What's the purpose of those? I truthfully don't know. The fundamental story is why bother with Alma at all but that's a bigger question. That's what I'm basically asking. Unless there's some packages not in the UBI repo that they need but binary compatible why not use UBI? Exactly. It's a valid question, Kenneth. And it's a question for which I have no answer yet. That's a bigger conversation about shall we end Alma Linux completely? We're ending CentOS 7. We've got an end of life process there. I don't have an end of life process for Alma Linux that is container specific but we could easily do it with the tooling with a little bit of an extension of the tooling that's about to merge to Jenkins Core. So we could pretty readily declare to people Alma Linux container is ending life at this date in the future and they would then be warned. Okay, you need to get off this. Go to UBI. Which answer the question about Eclipse Timurine? We can use UBI Timurine package for Alma Linux that should be binary compatible. Yeah, except that the Timurine package is for UBI 9 and our Alma is currently Alma 8. So long as they don't rebuild so long as they don't actually build for Linux 9 we're probably okay but it would need testing to be sure. I missed that important pile. Thanks. I forgot. Okay, anything else Mark? No, excuse the delight. That's all. Fine with me. I don't have a bike ride to do so. Your bike is waiting for you. So I think that's a wrap up. Thanks a lot for coming to this meeting. The recording should be available from 24 to 48 hours. See you two weeks from now and until there, enjoy Jenkins. Bye-bye. Thanks. Thanks for the work that everyone put there. Bye-bye. See ya. Bye.


I'm told that your work with BEL and other companies in India in the 1990s? Yeah, Bharat Electronics. Bharat Electronics? Yeah, NTI and such, absolutely. So at that time were you involved with the Indian government to a great extent? Not to a great extent, but there were some connections and some introductions and so on. There were initiatives around distance learning and bringing the internet to remote villages in India, which was a beautiful initiative at the time and we had the technology that enabled to do that through satellite. So it was fun to be in India and try to promote this project. From being an entrepreneur you moved to being a VC. You were talking about the perks of being entrepreneurs first and VC later. Can you talk more about that? Yes, absolutely. I was a three-time CEO and entrepreneur. I sold to companies, I love entrepreneurship, I love the creativity and so on. And when my partners convinced me to join their fund, they told me, listen, you like funding companies one after the other in a serial manner. Why won't you fund several companies? So I got excited, I joined the fund and I discovered that it was absolutely a mistake. Because, you know, at the beginning I was not an investor. I was a frustrated CEO. I was sitting in pitch meetings and hearing about new technologies and I was imagining what I could do with these technologies and sometimes got excited and sometimes even invested in companies, but I didn't look at the entrepreneurs. And I worked a lot and invested my heart in the companies, but at the end of the day I realized that the most important element in investing is the entrepreneur. The more I, you know, graduate through this process, the more I understood that the focus is not on me, it's on the founders.  But at the end of the day we are not managing companies, we are about being an investor. It's about them to lead their companies. So this is a big lesson that I learned. A couple of Indian startups are successful ones are seeing excessive takeover by investors. It could be because of loss of trust or because of better management and better resource applications that can go through. You just mentioned that we need to let the entrepreneurs do their job and help in facilitating them do their job better. Do you think that the startups of today face the problem of being overexposed to investor pressure and hence giving up to investor demands? Okay, so we have the same, how should I call that, trend in Israel a while ago where it was we had the magic formula if you wanted to build a great company you should have brought the American CEO, an experienced CEO. Everybody was looking for the gray hair CEO. I think it's a mistake. I think it's a mistake. I think that the entrepreneurs, you should invest in entrepreneurs that you believe can lead their companies. You should provide them guidance, you should provide them help and they should live and build their companies. My advice to entrepreneurs today is talk to your investors, reference your investors make sure that whoever you are bringing in is aligned with your vision and he's confident enough and respectful enough of you that allow you to do some mistakes because we all make mistakes Even investors it's very easy to be a taxi driver and give advices and see every little issue that the founder has. So I think it will change. I think it will change in India as well.


This is Mises Weekends with your host, Jeff Deist. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back once again to Mises Weekends. I'm your host, Jeff Deist. As you can see, our guest is Mark Thornton, our own senior fellow here at the Mises Institute and someone who was very prescient during the mid-2000s in calling the housing and stock market bubbles that ended up ravaging so many buyers just 10 years ago now. And because he was so prescient, I think we ought to be listening to him about the current situation, which feels very dangerous, which feels very bubbly. He's got a new book coming out on this very subject called The Skyscraper Curse, which the Mises Institute plans to release this spring, perhaps around May. So we'll talk about that a bit as well. But Mark, let's start with this. Our new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, took over on Monday after a very volatile Friday. Again, this week, just yesterday on Thursday, the Dow lost another 1,000 points. He's had a rough week. Do you think he is going to be as committed as Yellen and Bernanke before him to sort of propping things up, or do you think he is going to be more hawkish than his predecessors and sort of hold the line when it comes to tapering and not engaging in more QE? Well, I have to admit that I wouldn't want his job right now. I certainly don't blame him for the volatility in the stock market. Some people have mentioned the fact that he came on board along with the 1,000-point crash in the Dow. He is considered pretty much in the same line of thinking as Janet Yellen, maybe slightly more hawkish. And he's, of course, he's not academic. He doesn't come from an academic background. He comes more from a business-type background, a legal-type background. So you can expect him to support the status quo. You can expect him to support the establishment cause. But otherwise, I wouldn't think there would be much difference between him and his predecessors at the Fed. But that's interesting to me that he's a lawyer. And apparently when he first came to the Fed, obviously not as chair, but as an economist there, apparently he was very adept at devouring a lot of knowledge about monetary policy and history. But doesn't that strike you as strange in this sort of technocratic age that we have a non-economist, or at least by his original training at the helm of the Fed? Well, you know, I don't really like the idea of academics, mainstream academic economists being in charge and controlling the board and all that. I think that's a mistake. I think you need a mainstream economist on there. You should also have an Austrian economist who specializes in macroeconomics on there as well. That's clearly what's been missing at the Fed. But otherwise, yeah, I'd like to see lawyers, I'd like to see bankers, especially people who are interested in making sure the banks don't go down the tubes, who don't, you know, policy doesn't set the banks up for failure. And that's essentially what the academic economists who have been at the Fed have been doing. Well, if we go back to the period before the last crash, so call it the mid-2000s. First, on Greenspan later, Ben Bernanke, we're talking about the fundamentals and the economy, we're sound. When other people were like yourself, we're writing about the housing bubble. Jim Cramer, you recall, he had that mad money show and he was hyping all these different stocks and we had cab drivers and waitresses buying multiple condominiums and day trading, this sort of thing. Does it feel like that period again to you? I know that's not a well-defined term, but does it feel like we're up against something as dangerous? Oh yes, very much so. Every cycle is gonna be different. Every cycle is gonna have a different name to it, but the types of behavior that you identified with the housing bubble, the day traders and the cab drivers giving tips and all that stuff, that has come back, it doesn't seem exactly the same, but I think people are a little more reserved than they were the last time around because they got burned. I'm talking about the same people. The rotation of people between cycles is significant enough, but with this bull market, this bubble in the stock market, many of the people are the same people who were around during the housing bubble. Now on Wall Street, it's probably a little different. The turnover on Wall Street with the traders and the bankers and that sort of thing, they don't last that long on Wall Street. 10, 12 years is a career, and so there's probably been more turnover on Wall Street than there has been on Main Street. Yeah, it's interesting when Janet Yellen had a retirement party the other day. They had a lot of photos of some of the Fed economists, and they were very young, definitely millennial heavy, and many of them haven't seen a lot of down times in the markets. That's going to be interesting to see if Powell presumably has to rely on these people. I want to touch on something you identified in one of the papers you wrote in 2004. We'll link to both of these papers on Mises Org and with the show. You talked about CPI and how one way it has a blind spot in really properly measuring inflation is that when it comes to the housing price component, it measures it in terms of an average rental price rather than what it requires to actually purchase a house. And when there's this huge dichotomy between what a house costs to rent versus buy, that's a warning sign for you. And you indicated that this is one of the tricks that allows FedGov to conceal inflation. Yeah, concealing consumer price inflation. Of course, there's inflation all around us in bond markets and stock markets, but if we look at consumer prices, of course, housing is the single biggest item in the consumer's budget. So consumer price index has to measure housing somehow. And it's very, very difficult to measure housing prices because every house is different and every house is different over time. So they use rental equivalents with respect to housing to measure housing prices. The problem there is when you get into a housing bubble and the demand for housing goes up as renters become buyers, the demand for condos and apartments goes down. And consequently, the CPI is measuring falling housing prices while housing prices for sale are actually going up. So they're moving in the exact opposite direction. This is very unusual. And it's a sure sign that something at the Fed is a miss and something that in the residential area is gone horribly wrong because those two things should go hand in hand in a normal natural free market economy. Do you think CPI is manipulated for political reasons? In other words, is that overstating it or there's obviously a tendency by any current administration to want to downplay inflation. Do you think CPI is useless or do you think it has benefit? Well, we certainly have to have something to grasp onto the CPI consumer price index has many faults to it. Whether it's politically motivated or not, there's certainly an interest at the Fed to keep it down as low as possible. But on the policy side, they say they're suffering from a CPI that's too low. So they want the policy mechanism to increase CPI but their natural tendency is to want to reduce it. So CPI is sort of a way for the Fed to take credit for increases in productivity in the economy. And there's some natural reasons why the CPI is biased downwards. For example, if something is going up in price over time, it tends to be either eliminated from the basket or its weight is reduced. If something is coming down in price electronics, for example, and people are buying more and more of it, so as the price falls and the demand increases, there's a natural tendency that when there is a revision that the weight either enters the basket as a new product or its weight is increased. So talking about the stock market crash that happened earlier this week, there's a lot of crashes, multiple, apparently the dows regained much of what it lost. But what are some of the things that you, Mark Thornton, look at as indicators that we might be near the top of a very unpleasant bubble in whatever market? Well, as we came into this year, 2018, the thing that I was looking at most was the bullishness in the markets and the bearishness in the markets. And right now, basically, until these many crashes that we've seen in the last week or so, bullishness was at an all-time high. And bearishness was at an all-time low. So if you look at things like the amount of cash mutual funds hold really near an all-time record low, that means that mutual fund managers are very bullish. And all of those indicators were as we moved into January, January, the bullish indicators were at all-time highs or near it and bearish indicators were at all-time lows. So that's a contrary indicator, but I think you really have to keep your eye on that one. Well, it's interesting, if you say fund managers are deploying their cash capital rather than sitting on it, they want it active in the market, why aren't banks lending the way they used to be prior to the crash of 0809? And we have all these bank reserves that the Fed's created through successive rounds of QE and a lot of it's just sitting there in the monetary base rather than being actually lent out. Well, the amount of margin loans actually, I think is at or near an all-time high. So yeah, that's another indicator. When the amount of margin loans increases, that's a very bullish indicator. It means you're probably in a bubble and headed for a crash. And then, of course, once you start crashing, then of course people pay back that margin loans as much as possible. And typically at the bottom of the stock market cycle, you see very low levels of margin debt. So it's the typical scenario where people are buying high and selling low, which is very unfortunate, of course. So when we look at crashes in the past, generally the public is looking at things like there's a stock market crash itself. There's a big spike in unemployment. There's a big drop in housing prices. These are the kind of things we normally look at. But what's interesting is that they don't always occur at the same time and they can happen in sort of fits and starts. So this time around, what should we be looking at? Is it the Dow? Is it the overheated equity markets or is it something else? Yes, that's absolutely right. It never comes in one whoosh. It's a day-to-day thing. It takes time to develop. It takes time for people to change their psychology. So for example, we've seen people the last week or so during this turmoil, they've been sticking with some of these very hot stocks like Amazon and Facebook and all that stuff because they've been so good. And the losses in the more general stock market, the S&P 500 and the Dow have actually stayed apace with those hot sellers. So those hot stocks. And so yeah, you really do wanna look underneath the hood, so to speak. And the two that I look at at this timeframe, when things have started to happen, but we don't know where they're going, which is kind of what everybody admits to, is the small cap stocks, the small cap index, the Russell 2000 index. These are smaller corporations. They don't have the muscle that the S&P 500 has. And so it's a quicker monitor of risk in the economy. So if there is real risk coming into the economy, people tend to bail out on the small cap stocks first because they're more vulnerable. And the other thing I look at is oil prices. Oil prices is a great indicator of where the economy is and where it's going. It's the master resource in the world economy. And so it's an accurate, fairly accurate gauge of the fundamentals in the economy and demand and things like that. And what's happened to small cap stocks and oil prices is they've fallen almost 10% each since last week. And so those two leading edges of markets, tell me that there's something real here. What's surprising maybe about the crash of 2008 was that most commodities dropped, but some gold and other precious metals didn't. So even in a certain sector like commodities, you can have different outcomes. Oh yeah, the commodity market, for example, is consistent many, many markets. And of course, gold and oil held up very well in the wake of that. As all the central bank money came in, there was plenty of money around to keep the demand for those two commodities high for a considerable period of time. They both crashed. And now what we've seen is a more sounder foundation for commodity markets. And so precious metal prices have recovered somewhat and I expect that to continue. Energy prices have recovered somewhat that will probably continue. And then this is all gonna bleed over into other commodities such as grains and metals and that sort of thing to the extent that they're not related to probably industrial production. So looking at commodity prices and looking at the different types of commodity areas I think is very useful. And it gives, there's a sort of a long-term element in commodity price relations. For example, oil prices are related to fertilizer prices and fertilizer prices are related to grain prices and grain prices are related to cattle prices and that takes place over a period of time. So as one market is jiggled a little bit, it filters through to the fertilizer, to the grains, to the meats and so forth. And so, Austrians don't like overall price indexes because they mask some of the real features and functions of what's going on in the economy. But if you break down commodity price indexes, for example, you can see the flow of the economy, the flow of these materials over time, the workings of everything before it becomes consumer goods. So we love that kind of thing. Well, in addition to commodities, there's a whole nother market we need to consider the crypto market. Do you think the recent crash in Bitcoin and some other coins has anything to do with the broader macroeconomy or is it sort of a separate market that's still emerging and finding its own way? For the long time in its infancy, I think cryptocurrencies were a completely separate matter. And I think that the more recent bubble in cryptocurrencies and the subsequent crash means that cryptocurrencies are being integrated into the wider macroeconomy. And institutionally, of course, Bitcoin has become part of actual markets now. You can buy futures, you can buy these things independently of Bitcoin itself. And so that's a tangible sign that it's become part of the overall macroeconomy. And symptomatically, of course, its bubble and subsequent bust is another symptom of what has been happening in central banks around the world. You know, there are indices out there that attempt to gauge volatility, like the VIX, do you put any stock in those? Can they help us sense when it's time to get out of a market? Well, I do look at the VIX, I think it's an important tool to understanding what's going on in a market today or the last week or the last month. And what we've seen is since the financial crisis is that the VIX, as a measure of volatility, has been in a downward path, it's been at record lows. And you'd like to be able to say, okay, it's at a record low. That means that we're gonna get more volatility in the future. And eventually that will happen, but as an investment vehicle, you can be completely out of the money by the time anything does happen. So it's probably something we should keep our eye on, but in terms of investing, it's an incredibly tricky vehicle to try to make money off of. But this comes up all the time, the question of timing, right? That's what people really want from economists. They want forecasts and predictions. And it's also, I would say, a criticism level at the Austrian business cycle theory. In other words, if you can't tell me when all this newly created money is going to cause a bubble to burst, then what good is it? So devil's advocate, talk a little bit about Austrian business cycle theory. And do you think business cycle theory is correct but incomplete, for example? The Austrian business cycle theory doesn't really give us any actual tools to measure the magnitude, the timing and severity of what's going on during the bubble or what's going on during the crash. And so we're basically left at that point and Austrian economic theory, then you have to add additional tools, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, psychological factors. And I think the psychological factors, if you're paying attention to people becoming day traders or bartenders giving away tips and people leaving their jobs because they've made so much money, somebody who has no talents really for making money but ends up becoming super wealthy because they were just invested in the right thing at the right time and so they're quitting their job, all those things you have to pay attention to as well. So Austrian business cycle theory is a general guide but to get specific and make timely forecast is incredibly difficult and you have to rely on other tools other than Austrian economics.  So it points you in the right direction but doesn't actually provide you with the tools. But the criticisms of Austrian view of money more generally but more specifically the Austrian business cycle theory, I'm not sure our critics really believe that inflation, price inflation in anything, stocks, houses, whatever it might be is a monetary phenomenon. I think they just reject that. In other words, a Krugman would say as long as interest rates are kept low that no amount of QE will be harmful. This seems like magic to an average person. So describe how our critics would see this. Well, it's a puzzle to me as well. I mean, I have a difficult time understanding why so many people can't even understand a very simple theory like the Austrian business cycle theory but Keynesians believe that everything is based on psychology. Other mainstream economists believe that everything is the result of some random technological shock. Austrians incorporate both of those things except we provide an economic cause. That's one of the things that nobody else does is we provide an economic cause of the business cycle which is artificially manipulated interest rates. For mainstream economists, other than the Keynesians, it's just random shocks that you can't do anything about that you can't anticipate. So you won't hear Chicago economists really saying anything about the business cycle until after the fact. Keynesian economists will typically start out with their explanation for a boom bus cycle or a crash in the marketplaces. For whatever reason, this happened and then there's a result. The psychology went down and then people stopped investing and then people stopped buying and so they give you a description but for the cause, their cause is for whatever reason. That's a quote from Krugman from the previous cycle going back and you can hear and read a lot of economists from the Keynesian school who will say that just for whatever reason, this happened, mystery and that set off a series of changes in the economy which put us into a recession. But if it's true, at least in the minds of someone like Paul Krugman that you can create all these new bank reserves and give all these commercial banks hundreds of millions of dollars, trillions of dollars actually in new reserves at the Fed and as long as they're not sort of actively out there leveraging on that to create a bunch of new loans in the economy that no harm will come of it, well then what was the point? In other words, has QE just been a sort of cronious recapitalization of commercial banks who found themselves in trouble in 08? Yes, basically the answer to that is yes, is that the Fed took all of these risky assets off of the hands of the banks and gave them reserves which are not risk, there is no risk associated with it so they reflated the balance sheets of the banks and they gave banks a dependable source of income by paying them interest on the excess reserves and through that in other means basically they stabilized the balance sheets of the banks as they existed back then, of course they've created a very bad balance sheet for the Fed at the same time, if interest rates go up and they have gone up a little bit and the yield curve is flattening which is another bad sign, the Fed's balance sheet is gonna look awful if the interest rate on government bonds increases from where they are now to maybe four, five percent that's gonna make their balance sheet look bad and if when the real estate market tanks, all of their mortgage-backed securities are gonna start looking really bad as well. So you can delay things, you can transfer problems around but the Fed has no magic wand for turning bad investments into good investments and to turning government debt making it disappear. And even if they could, is that really a good thing for the economy or is that just another bad thing for the economy adding problems to the existing problems? Well, ladies and gentlemen, Mark Thornton, Dr. Mark Thornton was one of the few economists who called both the housing stock market crashes of the late 2000s. So really we ought to be listening to him rather than the talking heads at Bloomberg or CNBC. His new book is going to be called The Sky Shaper Curse, it's gonna be out in a few months. It might turn out to be a very timely bookmark for 2018. Let's hope it's not too timely because I don't wish a crash on the American people but it sure seems like what the Fed has been doing is setting us up for just that. So with that, thank you so much, Mark, for your time, ladies and gentlemen, have a great weekend. Subscribe to Mises Weekends via iTunes U, Stitcher and SoundCloud or listen on Mises.org and YouTube.


It's been a tough weekend here, huh? I went to bed on Saturday night and there was a pretty brutal mass shooting down in Texas. Last I heard about 20 people had died and 26 were wounded.  Texting my friends some thoughts about it, some observations, and then I wake up in the morning to another mass shooting that happened in Dayton, Ohio. So it sucks, obviously nobody wants this to happen and nobody's happy about it. So here are some observations and thoughts that I have as we continue to live in this weird place in America where mass shootings are a thing, sadly, right? My first big observation is that things are getting worse and these guys, these crazy psychotic people who decide to go shoot people up at random, sadly, are getting better. We're witnessing a morphing in the mass shooter type in this country. More often, sadly, they're bringing a rifle and not a pistol, for instance. So there seems to be more thought going into this. You know, they're bringing extra magazines or this guy in El Paso apparently might have had a ear pro on. I saw some report, I don't know if that's verified or not, that might end up not being true, but it might have had ear protection on. And I texted my friends on Saturday night before I went to bed, you know, how soon till they start wearing armor. Well, it turns out all I had to do was go to sleep and wake up and that's how soon they were starting to wear armor because then the guy in Ohio was reportedly wearing armor. So they're getting more calculated and they're coming with better gear and equipment. They're starting to pick rifles and they're starting to wear armor and they're starting to wear ear protection and they're starting to bring a bunch of extra mags to the fight. They're starting to do stuff that means they're going to be here for a while and they're really trying to try to pick their time. So that's sad and that's depressing. Statistically, obviously the chances of you being caught in a mass shooting are incredibly low, incredibly low, but they happen, right? And of course the thing that freaks us all out is they could happen anywhere at any time to anyone, you know, it's a classic terrorism thing, right? You could be next. So what does that mean for you? What do we do about that? You know, I certainly don't think the solution is limiting my rights as a free born American citizen. I certainly don't think that's acceptable because all that's going to do is leave me defenseless for the next time one of these things happens. So what do we do? I think that means three major things for you. You need to be trained. And when I say trained, I mean, you need to have seen a competent instructor to learn how to shoot your gun. I don't think that means at all. I've been hunting all my life or I've been shooting all my life or whatever. You need to see a competent instructor who knows what they're doing, who's going to teach you how to run that gun when your life depends on it. OK, that's the first thing you do. If you haven't taken a legitimate training course from a legitimate instructor, that's the first thing you need to do. OK, you need to come see me, you need to come see someone else. You need to go get training on how to use your gun. Without that, you're no good to anyone when the bullets start flying. OK, the second thing you need to do after you get that training is you need to be practiced. If you were like, yeah, well, I took a training course, Dylan, you know, I took it like five years ago. Well, have you have you shot your gun since?  Sometimes when I'm going to a dangerous part of town, you know, that's not what I'm talking about, right? Like you need to be practiced. You need to regularly do some dry fire. I know that's a lot of fun, right? You need to regularly go to the range. Hopefully you can go to range where you can work from your holster, but you need to practice. You need to take all that stuff that you learned to that training course. When you go to a training course, take notes, right? Then when you get back home, practice that stuff. Practice that stuff. We don't teach you these things for our health, right?  So practice that stuff. Get trained, get practiced. And then third one is you need to be mentally prepared to solve that problem, right? And that's probably the most important one, let's be honest.  If you're trained and you're practiced and you haven't really thought about it, but the bullets start flying, you decide, you know what, I'm going to leave. You're not doing anyone any good, okay? You're not doing anyone any good. I need you to get in there, I need you to solve that problem. Where did you spend all this money and time to get trained and practiced for if you're not going to actually do something about it when you have the chance? We need to be trained, we need to be practiced, and we need to be mentally prepared to solve that problem. So that's what I'm asking you to do. I'm asking you that.  There would be no headline because nothing happened. A bad guy got shot in the head and we all got to go home tonight. That's the society I want to live in. We have trained, competent, mentally prepared shooters all over the country. So the next time some guy thinks he can be a mass shooting star, he gets T-boxed. That's what I want. For those of you who don't know T-box, it's right here.  If you put a bullet through there, you can't do this anymore. It's your medulla obangata, it's lights out. It's the only off switch in the human body. For those of you who don't know. That's what I want. I want to live in a world like that where we have safe, competent people who love America and love their fellow man enough to solve the problem. Some gear considerations. The first one is you got to carry your gun. If you only carry your gun sometimes, if you only carry your gun you think you'll need it.    Enough with that guys. We cannot afford that anymore. I need you to carry your real gun. When I say a real gun, I mean something like a G19 size or bigger. That's what I mean. I need you to carry a real sidearm. The sidearm that you would want if your life depended on it. That's the sidearm I want you to carry, okay? So we got to start carrying real guns. Don't give me this about I can't conceal it or it's not comfortable or I print or whatever. I haven't carried about printing for I don't know how many years. And do you know how many times I've ever been made for carrying my gun? Zero, absolutely zero, okay? So you need to carry a real gun. You got to do that. Some of the things for you to consider about is you should probably bring an extra mag. If you're going to go through all that work to carry a real gun, you should probably bring an extra magazine. You might need it, you know, you might, your gun might malfunction.  You know, if these guys are starting to wear armor and they're starting to really come prepared to fight, I would want an extra mag. The other thing is you probably should carry an IFAC. At least at the bare minimum in your car. And in your car, I prefer to have like a full mass casualty bag, right? Like lots of tourniquets and bandages and gloves, maybe a couple chest seals. Like that's what I want in your car. So that after you deal with that problem, you can at least at the bare minimum get to your car and get back because you'll still probably able to do that faster than the EMTs will get there. And if you can put some tourniquets on some people and save some people's lives, that's great. I know a lot of you guys might even carry tourniquets on your person, even better. The last thing, and I thought about this one, is kind of a trunk gun or a cab gun or kind of having a rifle in your car or maybe a AR pistol or AK pistol or something like that and maybe even some plates and stuff in there. And that's great. I mean, I'm not gonna tell you not to do it. The problem of course is that when the shooting starts, you need to go like now, like now. You don't have time to go to your car.  You know, people will go, I don't wanna be confused with a mass shooter. Well, you might be, okay, probably not. Hopefully, you're gonna solve that problem for the police ever get there because they are minutes away and I need you to be seconds away, right? So we don't have time to go back to our car but if you happen to be at your car by the time something happens and you can just grab it and go, that's one thing. See, I'm kind of whatever about that but ladies and gentlemen, we've gotta be ready. We've gotta be ready because this is a thing in our culture now for a variety of reasons that we can discuss, but it's here. And the way to solve this problem is to have trained, practiced, and mentally prepared Americans who are equipped with the right gear who can solve that problem on the spot. You are your own first responder and I am asking you. We as America are asking you to be practiced, trained, and mentally prepared.  The chances that we, the practice, trained, and mentally prepared community will ever be there gets a little higher, right?  If you haven't been to the range in a while, pull out your calendar and get some time on the schedule. If you've never taken a real class, come see me, come see someone else. Get trained. It might just save your life. Do brave deeds and endure.


Hi guys, this is Jason Zach from Nathaniel School of Music. In this bass guitar lesson, we are going to explore and learn the incredible bass riff from the song Good Times by the band Chick from the album Risk. An incredible song, an incredible album, you should check it out if you like R&B, funk and all of that stuff. Wow! Incredible bass lines and phenomenal chord progression, song writing and so on and so forth. So it's a very common bass line, I hear a lot of my bandmates playing it, so I ended up transcribing it and here goes, it's just two chords pretty much, it's on E, E minor 7th so that's E, G, B, D and the second chord will be an A chord, the way it's being played is it's like a G over A or an A 13th chord or you could say 11th chord that makes this whole thing into an E Dorian vibe, so an E minor 7th going into an A A chord or an G over A chord. So very Dorian, you can see our notes where we've notated all this, the bass lines are also tapped out for you to learn and also the hit points of each of the notes which are played. Before we get cracking, it will be great if you could consider hitting that subscribe button and turning on the bell icon for regular notifications, let's get cracking. So we start with four hits of E, almost like another one bites the dust if you think about it, it's just on the 1, 2, 3 and by the way before I go any further we are dividing the beat into four units and playing straight. So that's 16th notes for you, so that will be counted as one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a like this, two E and a three E and a good way to start would kind of be this actually, one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a maybe an A, four one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a one E and a two E and a three and a four E and a one E and a two E and a three. There we go. Blue E and a three E and a. Okay, now that you got the pulse with the one E and a two E and a and so on, let's actually get the bass line. So we go three E's at one, two and three and you want to choke it, play it very staccato, so you don't want to do, you want to choke it. So you could choke it with your left hand or you could even choke it with your right hand with the alternating picking fingers. I like a combo of both, so it doesn't give out any weird harmonics. Similarly, A or the challenge if you fret a note and then you want to do staccato is you can't do it with your left hand. You can then only rely on your right hand pretty much or your picking hand to get you a nice staccato. So be aware of doing both versions. So maybe that's a good exercise. Just do staccato E, staccato A because you need this vibe to play the riff. Also try and open it out just as a practice at the end. So to staccato, I'm actually muting with the other with the other finger or not muting, then it'll be legato. There we go. Coming back to the riff now. So I'll play you the first bar. Okay, let's walk walk ourselves through that. One E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a E and one E and so to count this or to understand where the hits are you go one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and okay the first three are on beat one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and while the fourth E will be at the E of the four one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a okay. So that's a nice Dorian climb. You can play it in a couple of ways at least I do. So let's do that again very slowly one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a one E and a two E and a three E and a four E and a one E and so that a chord which is like in a seventh or G over A will have its occurrence or its first hit point not at the one of bar three but at the E of bar two of the four E right so it anticipates we call this as rhythmic anticipation. I have a nice video explaining the theory and with a lot of examples on rhythmic anticipation which we leave in the description. So you go E E E E E F sharp G A B C sharp D E A. Now you could play it you could play it this way just follow the string and the fret movements I'm just showing you the climb. And the first three notes are obvious. Open E. So that's B C sharp D E now to go from B C sharp D E. I'm just moving my shape my whole hand that's a bit easy for me because that allows me to play A on the E string. So pump pump pump pump pump pump pump pump pump pump pump pump and you then do three A's. So pump pump pump pump pump pump there's an open A E F sharp G minor third A B C sharp D E A and you need to hit that A very quickly or preceding the bar bar number three again. Pump pump and then the next two A's are on the one two three and now pump pump pump pump Now how do we do that? Now I like to play that with an open A but you can even play it with a fretted A. I prefer open A there. Let's get that together. So again I'll break that down for you in terms of hits. So it starts at the E of the four and then the E. An extra open you need to play. And it ends with. So E B open E fretted B. Now you could slide up to give you a more lighter G which I think is that's what it is in the song or maybe it's maybe it's a bend or something. Nevertheless the G is a bit of a kind of a silent passenger. So you could either do hammer slide or just like a random bend. Either which way sounds cool I guess you could look at that as an exercise on your own. So start with hammer and slide and then bend. Okay that's the end. So let's break down the whole thing very slowly. One more time. Right guys so that was Good Times very popular bass line. Look at the notation where you can figure out the exact hit points of the beats. For example while I was playing throughout the lesson I kept saying one E and a two E and a three. It's a bit tricky to count it and play at the same time. Maybe tough for you to also follow unless you have some kind of a visual cue. So you have my handwritten notes. You have the notation as well which is downloadable as a PDF on Patreon. Do consider giving that a check and learning it that way the tabs are also available along superimposed with the notation. So that's about Good Times the bass riff and if you want to learn more bass riffs like this on our channel and more bass guitar concepts or bass concepts in general you need to subscribe to our channel now. Thanks for watching the video thus far but even more thanks if you hit that subscribe button and hit the bell for regular notifications and there's a playlist waiting for you in our description which shows you all of our bass guitar riffs and licks and lessons where you cover some of the more popular stuff with all the fingering and the relevant theory. So happy learning catch you in the next one. Cheers.


Attention five points residents. This is a community notification of a new sexually violent predator in your area. Please stay tuned to the following short program for more information. Hi I'm technician Ron Hackett with the Denver Police Department. The sex offender registration and compliance unit at DPD is responsible for the registration monitoring and tracking of all registered sex offenders and sexually violent predators who live in the city and county of Denver. Here's a brief history of sex offender legislation in Colorado. Our state laws trickle down from federal government mandates. In 1994 we had the Jacob Wetterling Act which mandated that states would establish a sex offender list. Magans law of 1996 said that the public would have access to those sex offender registration lists. The Pam Litchner Act of 1996 stated that some offenders might have to have lifetime registrations and the Adam Walsh Act of 2006 unified sex offender laws across a country. In Colorado the legislature has determined that sexually violent predators by definition pose a higher risk to the community at large and therefore mandated that upon their release from the Department of Corrections the community must be notified. Sex offender notification in Colorado happens in two ways. The first is passive and ongoing through the sex offender registration process which is a list maintained by local police departments. The second way is active via community notification for those offenders determined to be sexually violent predators by the courts or by the parole board. Most sex offenders in Colorado are supervised by the criminal justice system in our communities. Most sex offenders engage in crossover behavior which means they may have been arrested for one type of crime but be apt to commit another.  There is no typical sex offender but all tend to be deceptive, manipulative and secretive. 80 to 93% of sex offenses are committed by someone known to the victim. Sexual deviancy begins in mid to late adolescence. Sex offenses are not impulsive.  The community has a vested interest in helping offenders to be successfully managed in the community. Sex offenders have the same need for housing and employment as any other citizen.  There are approximately 16,500 registered sex offenders in the state of Colorado. About 65% of convicted sex offenders are placed in the community on probation. The remainder are in the Department of Corrections or Community Corrections. Offenders may be caught for one type of offense but be at a high risk to commit another type. Crime of conviction is only one indicator of risk.  The offender's residence must be verified quarterly by the Denver Police Department. The full sex offender registration list is available by calling the Denver Police Department Identification Bureau at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Convicted felons and those with multiple convictions are posted online at denvergov.org slash police.   Now here's a look at the newest sexually violent predator living in Denver. Here's an overview of the registered sex offenders currently living in Denver. There are 2,484 total living within city limits. In Denver Police District 6 there are 487. Precinct 612 has 184 registered sex offenders. Of those 128 have felony convictions and 56 have misdemeanor convictions. Brian J. Wilhelms is a sexually violent predator currently living in Denver. He's 42 years old and was born on December 26, 1976.  He's currently living at 1901 29th street number 14 in the Five Points neighborhood of Denver. Schools located within one mile of this offender include University Prep School at 2409 Arapaho Street, Coal Arts and Science Academy at 3240 Humboldt Street, Gilliam School at 2844 Downing Street, Coal Middle School at 1350 East 33rd Avenue, Garden Place Academy at 4425 Lincoln Street, Gilpin Montessori at 2949 California Street, Annunciation Catholic School at 3536 Lafayette Street. Parks located within one mile of this offender include Globeville Landing Park, Curtis Park, Morrison Park, Williams Park, Siancio Park, Columbus Park, Franco Park, Community Plaza Park, Highland Gateway Park, Sonny Lawson Park, Denver Skate Park, Cuernavaca Park, Stout Street Children's Park, Miastas Park, Commons Park, St. Patrick's Neighborhood Park, St. Charles Place Park, Quick Park. Recreation centers located within one mile of this offender include Globeville Rec Center at 4496 Grant Street, St. Charles Rec Center at 3777 Lafayette Street, Glenarm Rec Center at 2800 Glenarm Place, 20th Street Rec Center at 1011 20th Street. Bus routes located within one mile of this offender include Route 48, Broadway & Lawrence, Route 12, 64th and Washington, Route 44, 44th and Kipling.  He's currently on parole and registered with the Denver Police Department on May 9th, 2019 to 1901 29th Street number 14 in the Five Points neighborhood of Denver. Past charges against this offender include assault with a deadly weapon, assault, theft, restraining order violation, first-degree motor vehicle theft, criminal mischief, sex offenses. Brian J. Wilhelms has been determined as sexually violent predator after meeting the following criteria. Criteria one age 18 or older on the date of the offense or under 18 and tried as an adult. The offender was age 33 at the time of the offense. Criteria two, the crime must have been committed honor after July 1st, 1997 and convicted honor after July 1st, 1999.  The offender was convicted on April 12th, 2010 for attempted sexual assault on a child. Criteria three, the relationship to the victim was one of the following. Victim was a stranger to the offender or the offender established or promoted a relationship with the victim primarily for the purpose of sexual victimization. The victim was a 13-year-old female. The offender was not known to the victim. Criteria four, positive results are the passing of a risk assessment instrument administered by probation parole staff and a qualified treatment evaluator. Positive results include an assessment for the presence of a mental abnormality, a level of denial regarding the offense, treatment appropriateness and motivation, presence of sexual deviant interests. The offender was evaluated by the Adams County Courts with positive results, determining him to be a sexually violent predator.


Wow, thank you. Thank you so much. It's such an honor to have Anna Wintour introduce me and I have to say you're impeccable grace and poise and confidence is a constant source of inspiration to me. So, thank you so much.  And thank you, Adwik. Thank you so much for bestowing this incredibly prestigious award on me and allowing me to join the ranks of today's most inspiring visionaries. Just thank my husband who I'm really excited to just start my life with. It's been a really incredible journey and, you know, getting to know you and to be married to you. I just feel so lucky to be a part of that every day and, of course, having my daughter is, you know, one of the best things that ever happened in my life. When I look back on the path it took me to get where I am today. I think about the little girl with a big dream of the future and so many ways I had no concept of what I was aiming for but I knew in my heart and I trusted in my instincts. My goal started out, as you might think, for me was a big goal but my goal started out as a little girl was to win the US Open and just won. And that was a big goal for me from a girl from Compton. So, at the tender age of three I began my journey. I was blinded by passion as I practiced in Compton and all those years later once one thing always remained the same, once you set your goals always aim higher. I have to say that hard work and dedication are the cornerstones of success and if you believe in yourself, even when others are doubting you and society is pushing you down, it's so important to always have that self-belief in yourself. I stand here and I can tell you I know what it's like to be overlooked as a woman, as a black woman but I never let anyone define my potential by my gender or my color. I continue to raise my voice in hopes of breaking barriers and make it easier for those coming up after me and one thing that I truly truly believe in is that the success does not define a person, it's how you successful you can be after you fall. A lot of people that truly inspire me are those not who are wildly successful but those who are wildly successful after they fell and then they came back to be super successful again and that's what for me feels a successful brand and a person. Lots of brands do not know how to make it on the first time. I know as a professional athlete, as a tennis player, as I stand here as Serena Williams, I guess I can't put that in quotations because I am Serena Williams but I just did but I know my first time as a professional athlete I lost in less than an hour and to a person who you know who I don't think anyone in this room can remember but I never stopped trying or believing or believing that I could reach my goals. Also the same thing as I started my fashion company it didn't happen instantly with success you know somewhere in between winning Wimbledon's and winning the US Open's I also never stopped believing. The art of failure for me is not limited to athletes or entrepreneurs or even seasoned executives it's open to everyone in life and part of the journey for me has taken a fall and dusting yourself off. But I would like to say that above all it takes a tremendous amount of humility to be great. In my own life I'm happy for everyone's successes even when they're my competitors and honestly I find inspiration from their accomplishments. I see the success that thrives around us is there to give something that we can push each other and set our goals higher than the day before. So for me it's all it all started with that little fire in my belly that honestly if it hadn't been recognized by my family who is not here tonight but I like to definitely thank my mom and my dad and of course my sister Venus who I'm obsessed with. If they hadn't recognized that determination in me I would not be here today. And now as I stand here before you guys as a mom it is important for me to empower the next generation and find that fire in themselves and that's what the S brand is all about. It's about empowering and challenging individuals to feel bold strong sure of themselves but most of all confident in who they are and our S logo which you have been able to see is meant to be for everyone to at a glance just recognize it and just be able to relate to it and just take that S and pick out a word for them what that S means to them. Mine is sure sometimes I just feel I know it sounds crazy but I need to be more sure of myself you know when I step on the corner of I'm designing I want to be sure that I can be successful and I can succeed and I feel like if everyone can take that S and just find a letter for them it can really just help people grow. I want to thank you all for being here with me tonight and I want to thank you at we thank you so so so much for recognizing me with this award and being inspired by my journey so thank you so much.


I can't call it man. I don't know what's going on with some of these people some of these fans of football they say they know this stuff and they just YouTube Team keep it clean What's going on is engraving here with another video and I am extremely extremely disappointed in a lot of people One of the reasons I'm extremely disappointed a lot of people is because of where their Minds where their heads at at this point of the off-season now. I know We almost miss football. We all miss football. It's clear as day, but please let's just get through this last month July is the last month where we don't have any foot. It's the last month and as a matter of fact We're gonna get training camp at the end of this month So we're not gonna be completely without football But this is what we're in the last period when the the slowest period, but the final period before everything's a full go but People's minds right now Since they're fiending for football. They just want to taste of football so bad that they are willing to Think about things but Remove a lot of the logic so There was an infamous tweet going around a couple days ago a couple days ago from Alex Wilson ESM I Not sure who that is I had just I saw the tweeter came up on my timeline. It's gotten a lot of buzz and This is what he said the Giants have a quarterback who runs faster than Lamar Jackson and that that was enough right there What that was enough right there? That was enough Let's just get through the tweet The Giants have a quarterback who runs faster than Lamar Jackson and ranked as one of the most accurate deep passes in the league last season That's facts and they finally given him some actual weapons to work with we haven't had a wide receiver one in two years and say quans injuries all right so he's referring to Daniel Jones and Daniel Jones he they did provide him with weapons this year They went and they signed Kyle Rudolph the tight end they went and they signed Kenny Galladay They even drafted the the wide receiver from Florida. His name is is slipping my mind right now. So my apologies So the Giants have made some moves on offense to make sure That Daniel Jones so he cannot have any excuses moving forward and that's a good thing. That's a great I love that. I love that. I commend that. I love when teams surround their young quarterback with weapons I'm all for that. Then of course say Kwan Barkley. He's coming back from the injury that he had last year What was it his ACL? I believe so that is a beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing but The first sense that that threw me for a loop That threw me for a little big time the Giants have a quarterback who runs faster than Lamar Jackson Now of Course this all comes from the whole ESPN stat that they put out on October 23rd of 2020 where it said Daniel Jones top speed on his 80 yard run was faster than Lamar Jackson's top speed on any run this season So on any run that Lamar Jackson had His top speed did not eclipse that of Daniel Jones top speed on his 80-yard run And then said that Daniel Jones top speed was 21.2 miles per hour in Lamar Jackson's top speed for the entire season on any of His runs was 21 miles per hour. So that point two is What he was referring to and that's fine. Hey That's fine. You're using numbers stats that ESPN put out cool but If we're looking at an eye test If we're lining these two up if we're doing anything like that You cannot tell me. I don't care who what team you are a fan of I could take this Ravens hoodie up I could take it off and throw it on the ground and Be completely neutral Even if I was somebody that didn't even watch football if you line up Lamar Jackson, you line up Daniel Jones You mean attempt And something that I said a lot through last year I said a lot even Lamar Jackson's rookie season. I Feel like we have not gotten to see Lamar Jackson at full speed yet on a run Because he'll be running but the fender will come he'll shake him. He'll move out the way. He'll evade them So We don't really get to see Lamar Jackson at top speed and then even when we think we're gonna see him at top speed Like in the Cowboys game like in a Giants game like in a Washington football team game Because I believe because we ran that same play. No, I know maybe it didn't work against the cow No, it didn't work against a cowboy But the our famous NFC East play that we ran all last year that the entire NFC East fell for that play A lot of times we didn't even get to see Lamar run full speed then Because well, and there was one there was one of those plays where it was a defender like right by the end zone But enough times he would be so far ahead of the defense that he'd be looking back He just started jogging start dancing and be celebrating on his way to the end zone We don't get to see this guy top speed ever but That's not even my biggest concern with this whole thing We all know Lamar Jackson is faster than Daniel Jones, but the thing that people continue to do with Lamar Jackson That that and it's not gonna go away. It's never going to go away What a lot of people continue to do and they will always do it is that With Lamar Jackson since he's such a polarizing figure Since he's his name. Just it shakes up the entire NFL whether you like it or not What people tend to do with Lamar Jackson is they will be trying to figure out ways How can I Lift up my favorite quarterback of my favorite player. How can I lift this guy up? I'm trying to think of ways I'm trying to think of just any possible Just what numbers what stats or something where I can lift my guy up because it's hard. It's tough It's frustrating. I just don't know how to how can I lift my guy? Yo, you know what? Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson that okay Lamar Jackson That guy's name that his name will get this thing buzzing Okay, so I'm going to bring Lamar Jackson down so I can lift my guy up happens all the time all the time You say anything about Lamar Jackson and like you this whole thing he could have said The Giants have a quarterback whose speed is very underrated and They could have shown his whole top speed thing and then said and he's also ranked as one of the most accurate Depassers in the league last season. That's facts and they finally given him some actual weapons to work with We haven't had a wire see the one in two years and say quant injuries You gonna say that But no, he had to say the Giants have a quarterback who runs faster than Lamar Jackson I feel like Lamar Jackson has made a lot of NFL fans NFL media NFL analysts NFL experts Very uncomfortable. I Feel like he has he has made people very uncomfortable Very Because we see it all the time Because what a lot of people could and I don't understand another thing. I just don't do not get is how people wake up every day to fight. I Log on to it. I just see people fighting all day every day Literally every single day total slots DS every single day Just wake up to fight argue. I Can't do it But we've seen it so many times recently especially with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Oh my goodness And I know they both are getting ready to get paid and they this Baker's been thrown in there as well But the main one has been Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Oh my goodness. I just get so tired of seeing it And it's like instead of being like hey This is what Josh Allen is good at. This is what he excels at. He's a really good quarterback That's how I feel about him. Hey, this is what Lamar Jackson is good at This is what he excels at. He's a really good quarterback with Baker Mayfield. Hey, this is what he's good at This is what he excels at he's No, he's good Yeah, but you see what I'm saying you can lift these quarterbacks up you can lift different guys up without having to tear somebody down You it's okay if you do that. It's fine. There's nothing wrong with doing that nothing It's nothing So next time you feel like oh man, I gotta put this guy down in order to lift my guy up I gotta put this guy that you don't have to do that You can say hey, man. Hey, this guy is good, especially at that. Oh no that guy's good, especially at that Wow, imagine if these two guys if you combine them. Oh, man, it'd be unstoppable quarterback You don't have to tear everybody down just to build somebody else up and that's not just in the NFL That's just life in general. That's life period. You don't have to do that It's unnecessary and it's it's just It's clear as day that people they they they need football back Because they they can't make it without it. They they cannot make it without it because the lack of Having an actual football game on on a Sunday on a Monday on a Thursday And who knows what could happen this season cuz remember last season we had football games on literally every single day of the week Yes, I'm on Tuesday had the one on Wednesday Had on Friday. So it is it happens, but people are missing it more than ever right now and It needs to hurry up and come back because it's just all the The having to be negative in order to say a positive about somebody It's it's unnecessary But that's just my two cents. I just had to share today because it just My goodness, it has just gotten ugly Anyway, team keep it clean. I love y'all. I appreciate y'all Please Please be positive know that you are allowed to build somebody up Without tearing somebody else down. Y'all be good to yourselves. We out