I've told this story many times over the years. The operation, the bombing of Afghanistan, the original bombing at Afghanistan, was called in the invasion of Afghanistan, was called Operation Infinite Justice. And less than 12 hours after the operation began, they changed the name because the Saudis complained. Only Allah can inflict infinite justice. So don't pretend that you have God in your side or something and the Bush administration changed the name of the operation because the Saudis didn't like it, because the enemy, the enemy didn't like it. We only do enemy friendly names. We don't offend our enemies. We'll bomb them, but we don't offend them, right? It's mind-boggling. So the weakness, the groveling, the pathetic nature of the campaign, they had bin Laden in the crosshair a number of times. They didn't shoot because of civilian casualties. They could have wiped out the Taliban from the air, but they wouldn't bomb Kabul because of civilian casualties. There's another movie that I just saw recently about the first Special Forces soldiers who went into Afghanistan to try to capture Mazhar al-Sharif in northern Afghanistan. And they worked with the warlords. And it was like, they're struggling. And carpet bombing is never an option, right? Where it would have saved gazillions of lives of the people actually, the good guys trying to, but nobody, you couldn't just send missiles into Mazhar al-Sharif and destroy the enemy because who knows, we'll die, right? You have to actually, you have to check your targets before you shoot. Otherwise, and if you get shot while you're checking the targets, so be it, who cares? I think what that did to American culture, what that did to American confidence, what they did to American self-esteem and the sons of life, it's impossible to fully appreciate the damage that the one you walk in, the one Afghanistan, the way they were conducted had done to American culture. Not only has it caused this kind of sensitivity to who you're offending, but it's caused us to lose the idea of anything special about America. If you think about, we associate today with the wars, we associate the neo-conservatives and the neo-conservatives immediately attacked as, oh, they believe in American exceptionalism. I mean, there was Trump attack against the rest of the Republican party. It's the attack today of most modern conservatives. Neocons are the ones they believe in American exceptionalism, and we don't. I mean, I don't agree with Neocons, I wrote a whole book attacking neo-conservatives with bad times then, but that's not what they're wrong on. They're wrong on a lot of things, but America is exceptional, at least was exceptional. Maybe it's true that it's no more exceptional. But we've lost, I think the only reason that Trump could win is because Trump rejected American exceptionalism.  We're a thug too, we're just American thugs. And it says, well, Americans, let's be patriotic around our thuggery versus everybody else's thuggery. I mean, it really became clear in the campaign in the, early in the campaign, the primaries, I think it was still primaries. When in an interview, he was asked about Putin, and he was, why was he so friendly with Putin? Because Trump and Putin had this very close relationship. And this was before he was president. And he was asked, why are you so friendly with Putin? Putin is, he murders journalists and he kills his political opponents. And I saw this on television, this is not some quote made up by the mainstream media.  Everybody kills people. I mean, that's what countries do. I eat all thugs. There's no difference. The only reason America special is because it's America. It's because we were born. This is antagonism to immigrants, right? It would count as where you're born. That makes you an American. And all these countries, and the first president, so there only being two presidents who rejected American exceptionalism explicitly. Obama, who clearly viewed America as morally equal to the rest of the world, if not inferior to the rest of the world, but was very explicit about his moral egalitarianism. And there was nothing exceptional about America. He was, I called him at the time, the most anti-American president in American history, Obama. But that's only because I couldn't imagine a Trump. But Trump is very similar to Obama because Trump is anti-American. He's not, if you understand America to be the founding fathers of America. And he is against American exceptionalism just like Obama was. In that sense, I think Trump captured a political moment. He saw that the country was basically moved away from the idea that America was special in any important regard, and that he could capitalize on that. So those are the only two presidents, Biden. I don't consider Biden an enemy of American exceptionalism. I consider Biden a zero. So I don't think Biden for, he doesn't think America is exceptional. He doesn't think it's not exceptional. I don't think he thinks. I don't think he has the mental capacity anymore to think if he ever did. So he's just a zero. And I think his presidency is one big zero. And that's why everything in Washington is not being dictated by Trump. It's by Biden, by the people around him. They run policy, they run everything. And he's just a yes man or a rubber stamp, I think, to give it kind of presidential aura. But there's no there, there. And whereas with Trump, he was constantly fighting with his advisors. And what you got was Trump. Sometimes his advice is one. And sometimes it was Trump. But for the most part, it was Trump. And with Obama, I do think Obama was a leader. So I do think he led his advisors. With Biden is just a follower. Always, again, always has been throughout his career. I don't think he's ever had an original thought. So 9-11 has really shaped the self-esteem of America. It shaped our attitude towards ourselves, our world in the world, the value we see in our own country. And it's value to us, and it's value from a foreign policy perspective. It shaped our attitude towards our politicians and to some extent towards our intellectuals, our elites, the people who kind of dictate kind of the terms of the culture. And it has eliminated any kind of confidence we have in our ability to overcome. I think the second big event in the 21st century was the financial crisis. And I'll leave that for another time. I think I've talked about that quite a bit and how that changed our attitude towards capitalism and markets and freedom. And that really, but that in 9-11 were the two events that really are gonna shape the 21st century. COVID is just gonna reinforce all those trends. But it has seriously dumbed us down, caused us to have this really deep-held mistrust of everybody out there, a mistrust that is justified. Why wouldn't we trust our politicians given how much they've screwed up over the last 50 to 100 years, but certainly over the last, what is it, 21, 22 years? It's been a complete and utter disaster. And again, everybody knows it. Like there were disasters in the past, but it wasn't quite as easy to pinpoint who did it. Here we know exactly who did it. And maybe it's implicit, maybe we don't recognize it fully. But I think it's now an embedded part of the culture. I think also 9-11 was also a time where as initially in the first month or two, everybody was patriotic, everybody supported George Bush as ratings went through the roof. By the time even of their election in 2004 and certainly in the second term, the country started really splitting and tearing apart. They really started to be this approach of, and I saw it on the right, particularly on the right, there was this approach of, you cannot criticize Bush. If you criticize Bush, you're basically committing treason. We're fighting a war, you don't criticize the commander in chief during a war.  And I remember people saying that to me in the early 2000s, exactly like they said it to me during Trump's stuff, when I used to criticize Trump, oh, you're just part of the mainstream media. You're just a New York Times guy. It's the same pattern. The same pattern. And I think after 9-11 was the first time I observed this, particularly on the right of this, you cannot criticize their sacred cows and if you are, you just lumped in together with all the leftists. No nuance, no ability to differentiate. And I would say to them, I was still naive in those days. No, the most important critique of Bush is from the right. I think he's a wimp. Right, my critique is he's too wimpy. He's too, and it's important to critique him from the right. No, I mean, no matter what the critique is, it doesn't matter. It's the criticizing. And that's when I first sensed the authoritarian nature, I mean, Bush for a while, they could have done anything. And certainly in the Republican Party, they would have followed him, no matter what he proposed or what he engineered. So there was definitely this authoritarian sense. There was definitely this attitude that no criticism allowed, the left is the enemy, those guys are the enemy, those other. And that I think throughout Bush's administration got worse and worse and worse. And then Obama, Obama I think segmented the government through the country even deeper. You got the Tea Party, and which started out I think as a positive movement, but turned out to be more party about, more movement about hate, hating the other side than it was about actually understanding and loving America. And it morphed into the Trump movement. So by then, I mean, I'm still shocked and I certainly was shocked in 2016, the depth to which the right hates the left and the left hates the right. I think I said this on the other day on the show that I first figured out, the extent to which the left hated the right when that scene in Corbyn enthusiasm where Larry David is about to have sex with this amazing sexy woman. And he notices on a shelf there a picture of George Bush.  And that was it, no sex. No, she was no longer attractive. There was nothing was happening. And I mean, really? Politics is more important than sex. I mean, that was a shock to me. I didn't know there were people who held that view. So it's become our tribal, I think our tribalism, you know, again, everything has its roots way back and everything ultimately is determined by ideas. But what we have today is that the ideas that are determining us are not specific political ideas that are ideas that determining us ideas about epistemology and metaphysics, ideas about where truth comes from and what is reality and the role of reason. And those ideas are the bad ideas. And those ideas don't lead to one specific outcome. What those ideas lead to is the mess we're in today. So the same ideas are leading the right to be the right and the left to be the left, they're both mystics. The same ideas about where the truth come from are leading the left to be the left and the right to be the right. So it's the same, in a sense, complete and not a relativism, subjectivism, which I think religion is, that impacts all of them, which is leading to where we are today. So when people think about ideas shaped history, it's not like this particular idea in politics leads to these things. It's the fundamental ideas about morality, epistemology and metaphysics that drive us and then there's a million different variations of wrong. There's only one variation of right and a million variations of wrong. I think Aristotle said that there's only one path to virtue, one path to the truth and many paths to falsehood. And we see that in our politics. The bad ideas infected everybody and pretty much every alternative out there is a bad idea. But so much of it, so much of it, the seeds were planted, if you will, existentially in 9-11 and so much of our culture. And you know, Leonard Peacock gave a talk, I think it was 2004, Americans versus America, right? And the idea there was powerful talk, I encourage everybody, it was just on the eve of the invasion of Iraq, so maybe it was 2003. And it was American sense of life is gone. What Americans are doing, Americans are fighting America, the idea of America, the principle of America. And he was so right, he was so right. And you're seeing that play out over the 20 years that have followed that. You're really seeing it all play out. And today, nobody even knows what America is. There's no conception of America out there, not right, not left. Used to be some conservatives had some vague idea about the founding fathers and had some understanding of it. But as I discussed about the Supreme Court, they don't understand the constitution. And certainly our politicians don't understand the constitution or the principles on which this country was founded. Thank you for listening or watching the Iran book show. If you'd like to support the show, we make it as easy as possible for you to trade with me. You get value from listening. You get value from watching. Show your appreciation. You can do that by going to iranbookshow.com slash support by going to Patreon, subscribe star, locals and just making a appropriate contribution on any one of those, any one of those channels. Also, if you'd like to see the Iran book show grow, please consider sharing our content and of course, subscribe. Press that little bell button right down there on YouTube so that you get an announcement when we go live. And for those of you who are already subscribers and those of you who are already supporters of the show, thank you. I very much appreciate it.


Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States. Please be seated. Good afternoon and welcome to the White House, although I understand others have already welcomed you here. I am delighted to welcome the executives who are not only keeping our economy vibrant, but providing role models for millions of Americans' daughters. Your young women will grow up in this country now in a world where, in large part, because of your efforts, every profession will be just as open to them as it is to their brothers. And for all the giant steps you've helped our country to take, you have my heartfelt thanks. As a matter of fact, I can't resist telling a little story. I've told it many times, but then when you get to be 39, you do tell the same stories over and over again. I know because I've been 39 and 34 times now. It was an accident. A man lying there in the street, a crowd gathering, and a man elbowed his way through the crowd. There was a woman ministering the man, and he shoved her aside, and he said, let me at him. I've had first aid training. She meekly stepped back, and he went to work. At one point in his administrations, she tapped him on the shoulder, and she said, when you come to that part about calling the doctor, I'm right here. Well, with your support, I think that we're making some long overdue corrections, and I hope lasting changes in the economic policies of this nation. Four years ago, we were looking at the first back-to-back years of inflation, double-digit inflation, I should say, since World War I. And the prime interest rate was climbing fast, and in December 1980, it reached the highest level since the Civil War. In four years, taxes roughly doubled, average monthly mortgage payments more than doubled, and the real after-tax income of the average American actually began to decline. By the time our administration took office, growth in our gross national product had ground to a virtual halt. Our nation faced its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Working with Republicans and concerned Democrats in the Congress, our administration set in place what we thought was a bold new economic program. We cut taxes, we reduced the growth of government spending, we pruned needless regulations, and enacted an historic reform called tax indexing, which will take effect this January and from then on the government will never again be able to profit at the people's expense by way of inflation. All of our efforts were based on a key insight that is not huge aggregates like demand and consumption that bring our economy to life, but individual women and men. And none of it would have surprised Thomas Jefferson or Abe Lincoln. Believe me, to some of the economists and politicians who make their living in this town, it came as quite a shock. They got their second shock when it worked. 21 months ago we saw the beginning of a sustained and inflation-free recovery. And then several months ago we moved out of the recovery stage and into a powerful economic expansion. As a matter of fact, it was kind of interesting. I was still calling it a recovery and I began to get letters from some of the same economists that said it wouldn't work, telling me it was now an expansion and I should stop using the word recovery. Well, today inflation has plummeted to just 4% for the last 12 months. The prime interest rates fallen by almost nine points. Productivity is up, consumer spending is up, housing starts are up, and take-home pay is up. And this economic expansion is unique in history for the number of thrilling new opportunities that it's giving to American women. More women have jobs than ever before in our nation's history and we concede that the jobs women hold are getting better and better. Last year women filled almost three-quarters of all the new jobs in managerial, professional, and technical fields. And the number of women-owned businesses is growing three times faster than the number of those owned by men. The best news of all, during the past 20 months, 6 million Americans or more have found jobs. Indeed, each month that we've created, on an average, for each month, more jobs in a single month than all the common market countries combined created over the last 10 years. Europe's calling what we're having here the American miracle. Well, it is a miracle. It's a miracle of hard work and energy and imagination in the part of women and men and women like you. Together we are creating a new world. A world where our basic industries will go from strength to strength and dazzling new industries will employ millions. It can be a world of greater prosperity than humankind has ever known. Above all, it can be a world of opportunity. A new American society where every woman and man will be able to climb just as high as their own ability and their determination and dreams will take them. We still have a great deal of hard work to do before we make America the opportunity society that we want it to be. But in just the past four years, I think we've made great strides. And I know that as women who've experienced firsthand the creative power of free enterprise, you will agree with me when I say, as I said the other day, we ain't seen nothing yet. So thank you and God bless.


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I'll have to try and watch it at some point over the weekend Orange Nerkich Blazers Michael Porter jr. On the turn of the century out of for the Nuggets Not just a scrubbed into legal in chat Tyrese Martin rookie red to 78 Hawks Demi Lillard star status Blazers Legal playing the victim now. Oh boy orange spellbound John Miranda Grizzlies is gonna start talking about us 12 kids now I'll say it's past many being many sped time This is Full throttle step are reading that this cringy conversation again You'll you go It was a twitch chat to like mess with other people in twitch That's all I've ever seen him do that Spurs monitor nobly kind of how he messes with everybody in this channel time.  Oh Man, you know the eagles gonna get like childhood chopper head of service is called on him without even having a child There's an eruption block So I'm saying several layers of jail and door and works in progress. That's a nice one. That's the 49 549 pistons Sivit, what's up, man? 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I guess Kate Cunningham on the variation season ticket Steph Curry sweet shots lottery ticket Benedict Matherin and premium edition Jalen Doran rookie ticket auto pistons Nice hit there pistons RJ Baird or RJ Hampton Guess in Hampton because we just pulled Nuggets Michael Porter, Jr. to 249 playoff ticket Got a superstar die cut John Morant a Hawaii Leonard It's a base Lottery ticket shade on sharp blazers We spun a dang rookie of the year sweet shots Duncan Robinson and Franz Wagner sophomore contenders auto one of 25 Magic, we'll get that mad for you magic Congrats sophomore contenders Franz This Brooklyn Makes sense say Pacers semi-finals ticket Chris Duarte at a ninety-nine I'm always thought of my lottery tickets bars with junior Rockets because your team is burgeoning Deer and Fox season ticket variation Kings Tara Easton rookie to your contender superstar die cut Trey young and a rookie ticket auto mark Williams Hornets Jalen Brunson next number to 249 playoff ticket Wade sweet shots McCollum Easy illegal easy. 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So yeah, my name is Aviv Zohari. I'm a founding engineer in Groundcover, where we're developing an eBPF-based observability platform. And today we're going to be talking just about that, about how we can use eBPF to get observability data, specifically logs. And like Adiato just said, that's not something that we hear a lot about logs. And we'll talk a little bit about why and how maybe that is going to change. So a little bit about myself. I was a security researcher for quite a lot of years. And I did a lot of low-level kernel stuff, which maybe explains how I got to eBPF later on when moving to the observability space in Groundcover. And today I'm working mostly with eBPF to try and see how we can redefine some of the things that are already in place, but with this really cool new technology. And just so you know, this is my first time speaking at a CNCF event, which is exciting enough as it is. But about an hour ago, my dad just showed up in the conference to surprise me. Yeah, sitting right there. So the excitement levels are a bit higher than expected. So sorry if that translates in some way. But yeah, let's get going. So today we're going to be talking about, we're going to start with why. We even want to look at eBPF for logs, how it works today with the current implementations that we have, what are the problems or the inefficiencies in those methods, why eBPF could maybe solve that or how it could be used to solve that, and conclude with some benchmarks and what's going to come in the future. So let's start with the why. Well, we already have a lot of ways to collect logs. But I think that logs are probably the most basic pillar there is in observability. Every developer knows how to write logs. So you have logs from your applications, from your third party software, from everything basically. And that generates a lot, a lot, a lot of data. And it's also very unpredictable in volume. So it's very challenging to build a system that can actually work, that you would always collect logs even when there's suddenly a spike. And there are a lot of tools for doing that. And we're going to talk about some of them. And mostly they operate in the same way, which is not to say it's a bad way. But I do kind of feel that when there's sort of a consensus on how things work, then maybe there's an opportunity to try and reinvent that when new tools like eBPF come into play. Now, collecting logs is hard. And it gets harder the more logs you have, right? And we've seen a lot of nodes and clusters which can reach 1,000 log lines per second, maybe even 10,000s of log lines per second. That's a real engineering trouble. That's just a bandwidth problem that you need to know how to solve. And the thing with collectors that often run as demon sets, for example, in a Kubernetes cluster is that even though CPU of one instance might be low, when you multiply that with the amount of nodes that you have, it adds up very fast. And that directs to cost. So this is one very good reason to all try and challenge this, right? Logs are everywhere. Collecting them is hard. It might be costly. But I think the more important reason for milk list is that when thinking about it, when we're starting to look at eBPF for logs collection, it became very clear to me at least that this is the right way to do it. And we're going to see why. We're going to see why it fits the challenge of logs collection perfectly. And if you don't think that's the right way because it's eBPF, then we're going to be seeing why this actually improves the collection, the overhead in collection by up to 40x. And I think that eBPF might be this really new technology to a lot of people. But for log specifically, it can actually be a drop in replacement. You can replace the collection part of logs. And we see just that. And most people won't even know the difference, except the resources are going to go down drastically. And this would work on Kubernetes. This would work on ECS. This would work everywhere. There's the Linux kernel, basically. OK, so I hope I got you a bit pumped up to see just how this is going to work. But we'll have to start with how things work today. And we're going to limit our talk to containers on Linux, on Kubernetes specifically, and specifically, tailors, so programs that will always fetch logs from all of your containers continuously. And not, for example, open telemetry for using logs. By the way, there's another session right now happening that is comparing open telemetry with fluent bits. It's a shame it's on the same time I would love to be there myself. But I would definitely check that out later on. So how do we get logs from containers? Containers are secluded, right? There's Linux namespaces. You can't see what's going on inside the container. That's the whole point. But luckily for us, the container runtimes, which actually manage those containers, do that for us. And the way that it works, I'd like to think about it as, well, we have our containers that are ran by the container runtimes. And we can see that these containers are secluded in this world, this purple world. And every time that a container is writing out logs to standard output, it's basically saying something out loud, and hopefully someone will be able to hear that and somehow pass that on. So just as an analogy here, I'd like to think of mail pigeons. So we have the runtimes actually employing those pigeons. And every time that a container is writing something to standard output, then it will be delivered to a mailbox that is specific to that container. And we're going to get more technical in a minute, don't worry, but just to still lay out the ground. And the cool thing about those mailboxes is that they live outside of the purple world. So they are accessible to other containers, for example. So if you have tailors like prom tail and fluent bits, then now they can go ahead and get the mail from the mailboxes. But how do we know where to look? So it depends on the environment. But in Kubernetes specifically, there's a path. There's a well-known path on every node on every host machine that, by giving the pod details, the namespace, the name, the ID, et cetera, et cetera, you can find those logs. So if you know what you're looking for, then you can get that. For example, when you use a kubectl get logs, or log, sorry. But what tailors would actually do is they would just scan the whole directory. And that way they can find our pods, which is very cool. So we have some pods running, and we have those long paths. But at the end of the day, we can find them. Awesome. There's one important optimization that I have to talk about, which is that when tailing, you don't usually just busy pull the mailboxes, because that would be very intensive. So instead, we can use what's called inodify, which is a system called the Linux kernel, which asks the kernel, hey, every time there's new mail coming in, please let me know. And we can see that process here. And then we know where to read from. And this makes a lot of difference. And this concept of only doing things when needed, this kind of puts us on the track of this being an event-based thing, right? Logs are event-based. Basically, log is being written. And well, then this chain of events will lead to someone reading it later on. So that was very high level, of course. But I think it's good enough to start understanding why this method, even though it works really well, if you go ahead and install those tailers, you will have all your flogs, why there's also so many inefficiencies with it. And I'll give you about five seconds to try and think of those yourself. And then you can see if we've thought of the same ones. OK, you ready? Awesome. So there's actually a lot going on here that we haven't discussed when starting to actually look at the details, the technical details. So first off, we're using files. And we just saw that. We saw the files. We saw the path. And files are not a very good middleman in terms of performance because, well, even though you have to use files here because you're writing something and then it's asynchronous, right? Someone else is going to read it sometime in the future. What are we going to do about it? Yeah, that's true. So you need someone to store the logs. But file.io is obviously CPU intensive, especially when you're continuously doing that for every log line, every, all the time. And think about that amount of disk that you need on each of your nodes to store all of the logs, right? And you're probably storing them for a lot of time as well because you don't know when someone is going to go ahead and query them. So that was one point. The second point has to do with not batching the logs, the reading of the logs across containers. Now, what do I mean by that? Well, when you're trying to optimize pipeline efficiency, the one thing that you want to always focus on is doing as much reading as you can or much writing as you can every time that you're doing an IOR operation. So this is not new, right? This is in every pipeline problem there ever was. And even though we can do that per mailbox, for example, so say that some tailor would basically say, well, I'm going to wait until I have this many bytes until I actually do the read operation. So that's good. But you can't do that across the mailbox. It's just not the way that it works. So if you have more containers, you're actually getting less and less efficient. You have to read from different files, and you're doing a lot of reading, a lot of physicals to do that. And lastly, there's a lot of serialization and deserialization happening here. And you're probably wondering, where? I mean, it's just text, right? But in reality, there's other things that we want to share about logs. We want to know, for example, the timestamp. When was this log written? Maybe which stream it was written to? Was it standard output, standard error? So there's a format for defining how do we write logs? How do the container runtimes actually transfer those logs? And it looks like this. We have a timestamp. We have the stream, stdout, stdl, flags that we won't get into right now, and the actual content of the message. And this is a very simple format, right? It's just a couple of things and spaces in between. But again, those things tend to blow up on scale. So for example, taking a timestamp, taking the amount of seconds or nanoseconds that passed since epoch, for example, and converting that into a 30-byte text, doing that 1,000 times per second, 5,000 times a second, is very costly. More than you'd expect, I think. OK, so I know that some of you probably have thought of other things. And there are other things that could always be improved in those. But these are the key things that I would like you to remember when we talk about eBPF logs. And we have to start with a very short intro into eBPF. Now, this is not an intro lecture, of course, but just so you get a very basic understanding of how it works so we can explain how we're going to use it. So eBPF is a kernel technology that lets us run custom code in the kernel. Well, that's not very new. We always had kernel modules. But the really cool thing about eBPF is that it lets us do it in a very safe way. And what does safety mean exactly? Well, it means that the kernel makes sure that the code we are running cannot crash the system, for example. But it's not just that. It also makes sure that the amount of time that we are adding with our programs is limited. So we can't interfere with the operation too much, at least. And eBPF is a very, very powerful tool. It lets us look at both the kernel activity and, for example, here you can see VFS, you can see files, you can see network storage. So very classic kernel stuff. And it also lets us look at the user processes themselves. So we can actually put probes. We can look at the processes themselves as they are running in specific points. And the cool thing about eBPF is that it changes the way that we can think about a problem. Because we used to thinking in concepts of, well, we have the container runtime, for example, that is exporting those logs in those files. What are we going to do about it? We can't change that. But suddenly now we have a way to rethink the problem from the system perspective, from the place that is actually managing the whole thing. And the really cool thing about eBPF is that it's very, very good. I think it was meant mainly for event-driven scenarios. So every time x happens, do y. Every time this function is called, please let me know. Every time this event is happening. And we just discussed how logs are one of the most event-driven things there are, I think. It's just a process riding logs to the output. And lastly, it breaks the container collector boundaries in the sense that containers are actually managed by the kernel, right? So if we are thinking with the kernel in mind, if we are sort of the kernel, then we are seeing things differently. So what does that mean? Well, we've seen this image before. But now we need to add on top of that the actual Linux kernel, which is managing the whole thing. It's actually responsible for the containers being secluded, for example. And when we think in eBPF, things look a bit differently. So we no longer have containers and mailboxes. We just have processes. And we no longer have mailboxes. We have disk. And whenever a container is trying to write logs, it does a very, very simple thing. Does anyone know what happens when you write? It doesn't matter what language you're running. So you're just going to run a syscall. You're just going to do write or write v. But those are the two Linux syscalls for writing two file descriptors. And that's all there is to it. So in the kernel's eyes, there's not a lot going on here that is too complex. We just have those syscalls happening. And how do they look? Well, the write and write v. syscalls are pretty similar. They have the file descriptor that we are writing to. They have the buffer, the text that we are writing, and the amount of bytes that we are writing. And that's it. I mean, that's what you would expect from writing logs. It's very simple. So what can we do with evpf here? Well, we can probe means every time this syscall happens in the kernel, please let me know so I can run this small piece of code. And in this code, we can check if the file descriptor matches standard output or standard error, which has one or two. And if not, then we don't care about that for now. We're only dealing with those outputs. If we care about it, then we can get the identity of who did that, which is either the process ID or the C group, something that will help us later on understand who made this call. And then we just send it back to our collector in user mode. We're going to see that in just a moment. And that's it. There's no mailboxes. There's nothing else in the middle. So we've seen this picture before. But the only thing that we need to add now is the B or the EBPF collector on the right, which every time this event is right or right, the event is happening, it's going to have this data sent to it with EBPF primitives. So basically, we ring buffer submit means just send this data on a ring buffer. It's that simple. So with this in mind, with this very different approach to getting logs from applications, let's take a look at the points that we've seen before. So we talked about how logs are stored in files. Well, there aren't any files anymore, because the collection is now happening in a completely synchronized way. Every time there's an event happening, it's magically appearing in our collector, in our Taylor. And the memory is directly shared, which basically means that we don't have to copy the buffers anywhere. We just have the original log buffer used by the process available to us for copying directly through the ring buffer, but copying it immediately to the collector. And this means less CPU overhead, because we no longer have any file I.O. And in theory, we could remove the files completely, remove the storage. Now, of course, that means that other applications can access that. So maybe we'll do that right away, but we could do that. So the second problem that we discussed is how we are not batching across containers. Well, now we can batch from all containers together. And why is that? Because the kernel, like we've seen, it doesn't really care which container issued the syscall. It sees all processes doing all syscalls in the same way. So as long as we can identify which container did that in some way, and we've discussed that with the PID and SIG group, then we have all the logs together in one place. And we can batch them together. That's actually how the ring buffer lets us do that. It lets us aggregate data and only lets the reader know if we've reached some threshold, for example. But this is, by its nature, working for all containers together. And we get a very high efficiency of copying our data. And this also results in less TPU overhead and in difference to the number of containers, which we previously saw will make our life harder as we go with more containers. At the last point, of course, was the formatting. So this is a tricky one, but the cool thing is that we no longer need a textual format, because we actually share the code. It's the same code base. The code base that is the user code base, the collector, and the kernel code that is formatting the data are written together. And they have this way to share, I called it C-style, because it reminds me of parsing protocols where you send something on a socket and you get the raw bytes as they were. And this is exactly what's happening here. So yeah, we still have timestamp. We still have the stream, but it's no longer text. It's as simple as it can possibly get. You're just sending the data as is using shared memory. So that's pretty cool. And of course, this also results in less TPU overhead. OK, so we've talked about why VPF is a very, it's a new way. It's a cool way to do things, but of course, we want to make sure that we're actually doing something that improves our TPU here, right? And what we did is we compared different tools just to measure the amount of TPU they had. And by the way, I want your memory here, not because it's not important, but just because all collectors are pretty good in memory. That's not something that I signed proving with EBPF. They're all very consistent about the same memory levels. And what we did is we, sorry for the slack notification there. So we used Promtel, we used Fluentbit, and we used Flora, which is ground covers EBPF sensor. And something's going to go away. Sorry for that, exactly the moment of truth here. Well, you'll have to excuse me. So we had those three collectors running. And we had a very simple vanilla EKS setup. We had this logs generator that just generated any amount of logs that we'd like, very simple logs. It was NGINX-like logs. And we also had sanity metrics, which basically let us make sure that we're actually collecting the amount of logs that we'd expect, right? Otherwise, we're just not sure if it actually works. And I'm going to give you a moment to take a look at the results here. Sorry, there you go. OK, so on the left side, we have the amount of logs being generated per second, going up from 100 to 10,000 at the very end. And in green, we have Flora, our EBPF sensor, which is constantly, well, the lowest CPU used, but I would say by a pretty great margin. And you can see on the right side, we have the minimal multipliers. So it's not even the higher one. I just didn't want to put the higher one. But it goes even higher if you compare that one. And we can see that Fluentbit and Promptail are switching between them. And by the way, the reason that Promptail, well, I think the reason that Promptail suddenly became more CPU expensive is that in order to generate 10,000 logs per second, I had to use more than one container. And then we're reaching the problem that we discussed before with how can we group together logs from different containers. So yeah, you see, the numbers are pretty intense. And I was very happy to have the sanity matrix here, because at first I was thinking that this just can't be right. But yeah, so just a few thoughts to wrap this up. Well, first of all, I'm sure I closed Slack. I'm not sure why it's popping up. Sorry about that. But there's actually more we can do with EVPF that it's not just a pipeline efficiency in terms of logs. So first off, imagine that you want to filter logs, that you don't want all of the logs from all of your applications. You only want LO logs. You only want logs from a specific service, anything like that. Well, with the current implementations, you would have to first get the logs into your Taylor. And then you can decide that you don't want them or that you do want them. And you still have to get them all the way to you. But with EVPF, we've seen that basically the sending happens very early. So since we're doing things just when the logs are being sent, we can decide at the kernel, at the EVPF probe, hey, we don't care about this log. It's not error. It's not from a container that I care about. Just don't send it. And we're going to save a lot of resources just by doing that. And I think that the real cool thing is what happened if we could use EVPF with the container run times directly. So we haven't discussed that at all. How do the pigeons work? How do the container run times get the logs? And it's pretty similar to what we've seen here. But there's a lot of IEO going on over there as well. And of course, we could just do that with EVPF as well. It's just something to think about. OK, so wrapping this up, I really think that EVPF is the right way to get logs. It's not just another way. And this technology fits this problem perfectly. It's a very event-driven thing. It's a high load problem. And these are things that we've seen working with network before, but I think that logs, this text, is basically the same problem. It's a bandwidth problem. And we've seen how we can improve CPU by a lot. And keep in mind, this is per node. So we've discussed this at the beginning. But obviously, in a cluster, for example, you can have 100 nodes, 500 nodes, whatever. And you can scale this up. And I will leave you with this one question. How many EVPF-based log collectors do you know? Well, I'm guessing the answer, for most of you at least, is this is probably the first time that you've heard about this concept. And I have a feeling this is going to change soon. I think the community is going to pick up on this. We're going to see more projects. It could be just replacing some parts of existing projects, which is a really cool notion. And it could be completely new tools. But I'm pretty sure that we're going to see this evolving very soon. So thank you very much. If you have any, I think we're out of time. But if you have any questions, please feel free to find me or any of the ground cover team at our booth later about this, about EVPF observability, and about how to turn off slack notifications. Please don't come to me. I'm not the one for that. Thank you very much. You mentioned that you use like EVPF to send logs to a ring buffer. But the size of this ring buffer is limited. So it's a constant site. And the one advantage that we have from files that you can store a lot of data in files. And somehow, if your collectors are down, this data is stored in files. And then these collectors will come up and take this data. And you won't lose this data. But if we send data to the ring buffer, we can lose the data. So what's the solution for that? Yeah, so that's a good question. I think there are two things that are interesting to talk. First, the ring buffer size is limited. But in terms of bandwidth, it's manageable. As long as your agent is running, then you'll be fine in just picking up the pace all the time. I mean, it depends if you do it right. I'm not saying it's easy. I'm saying if you do it right, then you can do that. In terms of recovery, in terms of what happens if you go down, I don't have a good answer to that. That's probably the reason why files will still be with us for some time. But I think that most of the time, as things should be up and running, then you could maybe use files as, I would say, as cold storage or something that you don't have a lot of, maybe 30 minutes back, maybe, I don't know, just not so much as we have today. But yeah, that's a good question. Just seeing the start of how this could work. OK, thank you. Thank you. I can't hear you. Maybe the mic's fine. Hello. Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead, yeah, sorry. So thank you for your great presentation. My question is, if any developer did improper logging practice, and some things are missing, like client ID or developer ID, something, which are very important. So due to that, we could not find who are the affected by the failures or anything happened. So is there any way, using eBPF, we can identify those any clients or developer or container or anything? So you mean adding data if it was not added by. So eBPF, the downside, I would say in quotes of eBPF, is that the safety thing makes sure that you can't touch the data. So you won't be able to modify the data with eBPF, unfortunately, I would say. Probably more of a benefit than this advantage. But yeah, developer, for getting to add things, is not something that eBPF can solve yet, I think. Thank you. Unfortunately. Great talk. Thank you very much. You mentioned you were augmenting the data with the container ID. I wanted this is probably potential to augment it with maybe the place in the application stack where the log came from, perhaps. And I also wanted what the overhead of looking up that information is and whether you're doing any caching there or something like that. Yeah. Those are two really good questions. I think that to answer the second one first, so again, one of the cool things of eBPF in the safety manner is that it guarantees that the scope of the program you're running can't be too long. And just to put it in numbers, I haven't seen a program that takes more than a couple microseconds top because the kernel just won't let you run that kind of program. So even if you fetch the data, even if you use caching or you don't use caching, it's still not going to be a very intensive CPU overhead on your system. And to answer the first question, to get that, well, you need to understand, I think the problem with that is that loggers often tend to batch things together. So it's not that every time that you write something in your code, then you immediately get a syscall. You have a batching inside the log runtime as well. So when you actually see the syscall, you might be looking at logs that were collected for the last 10, 20, 100 calls. But the answer to that, and I've mentioned that when talking about eBPF, is that you can also do things in eBPF inside the user code. So if, for example, we did this on the actual log libraries, then we would maybe be able to get that information. But that would require a lot of work to basically making this working for each and every type of library there is. So definitely something we can think about this way just is kind of a drop in replacement that works really well. But yeah, definitely. Thank you very much, Sean.


Hi, my name is Leon Roeb, currency trader and trading coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in gold, fundamental and technical analysis. I hope you're all doing well and for those who were expecting a video last week, I actually did record a weekly video but unfortunately the sound did not record and so I was a bit strapped for time so I couldn't record another video so my sincere apologies for not having last week's video out but we're back to the analysis for this week for the YouTube guys, for you who are watching on YouTube and for those of you who are part of the mentoring group, I have uploaded the more in-depth fundamental analysis video and that's analysis from the banks and stuff and then also as well the weekly technical analysis video as well as the group calls, the live group call recording that we have on Wednesday as well as all the other videos that I've done throughout the week from feedback to setups etc. You've got them all here for the month etc. So all the videos are here, tons of videos for you to watch. Anyways, getting into the week ahead though, the July and this is from TradingEconomics.com. Next week the payrolls and FOMC minutes will be taking the headlines in the United States. This will be followed by the release of ISM manufacturing and services, PMI factory orders and foreign trade data. Additionally, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be published for Switzerland and Canada. Investors are also eagerly awaiting inflation rates for Switzerland. Furthermore, focal points for investors will include Australian interest rate decisions. I think that's on Tuesday. Canada Employment Data, China Caxing, I think that's how you pronounce it. Services and Manufacturing PMI and Japan Tank and Manufacturers Index. So quite a lot going on this week. Some market moving news and so let's go to the charts and some more fundamentals and starting off on the Dollar Index, the DXY. Just looking at really what happened on Friday which was that the PALS favourites or favoured inflation gauge for services hits a 10 month low. So a measure of US core inflation prices that the Federal Reserve officials are watching closely posted smallest advance in sorry since July of last year. The reason why that's important is because it really kind of determines how much the Federal Reserve are going to hike and if inflation is already coming down then the central bank are less likely to hike and not just the Fed talking about inflation coming down globally then central banks will definitely look to pause rather than hike rates and so on Friday we had PCE data come out and pretty much it was a situation where it came out lower than expected and so what we saw on the price chart for the dollar really on the Friday was a bit of a move to the downside. The dollar kind of sold off across the board and it come up into that supply zone and sold off from there so the dollar not looking great at the moment but there is non-farms this week and so also another measure of how the economy is doing but also inflation is employment now there is something called the Phillips Curve you can Google it but basically what it says is that when employment or I should say unemployment and goes down unemployment goes down inflation goes up and when unemployment goes up inflation comes down and so they have an inverse relationship and so what the Fed is hoping in fact is that unemployment starts to go higher meaning that employment comes lower and that hopefully should also affect inflation and get inflation closer to their 2% target and so yeah let's see I think that's really going to be the determining factors to whether the dollar is going to follow through because then if that does occur then the Fed are less likely to hike which then the market will start to price out their two Fed hikes because according to their dot plot they expect two more hikes but they won't have to if the inflation isn't you know is coming down right so so there's that moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen has just been going higher and higher mainly due to yen weakness and this is because the the Bank of Japan are really the only central bank that are not looking to hike Ueda who is the governor of the Bank of Japan is very dovish but what there is and what's been quite interesting is that the yen the yen weakness to and it weakens to 145 per dollar in years 2022 intervention levels so yen falls to lowest level since November on yield differential and Suzuki reiterates to respond appropriately to excessive Muzo Suzuki I think he's the minister of finance and so there's a 145 level right which basically we kind of touched last week and that is seen as a kind of line in the sand when it comes to the amount of weakness that the Bank of Japan will tolerate because they don't want the yen to weaken too much no central bank really does like their currency to strengthen or weaken too much and they tend to intervene in the market and try to strengthen their currency if it's weakens too much and basically weaken their currency if it strengthens too much right and so the 145 level is seen as quite uncomfortable but I think maybe 145s to 150 is going to be seen as kind of the line in the sand but reading the article it says the end fell through the 145 for the first time since November near in a level where Japan intervened last year to support the currency for the first time since 1998 the Japanese currency dropped as much as 0.2% to 145.07 amid a reignited focus on the monetary policy divergence between the East nation and its major peers so there's again a divergence between monetary policy going on there which is causing the the end to weaken it's declined to an almost eight-month low has spurred reminders from government officials that they are watching moves and stand ready to act so last year the currency slide towards the 146 triggered intervention and the build-up to that sorry build up to that there were repeated official warnings and so again this was from last year and it was Japan conducted yen buying intervention for the first time since 1998 and that was back in September 2022 and then it followed up with another intervention around the 150s the 151s and so if the central bank is looking to strengthen their currency and intervene then that's a great I guess entity to have when you look into buy also the currency right and so nobody knows exactly when they will intervene but the higher it goes the more likely is that they will intervene and so there are reasons to actually look to potentially start to scale in to buy the yen again at the moment it doesn't look like you know they waiter is is hawkish but they want to kind of surprise the market and that's what they did the last time it surprised the market when they did their first intervention and then the second intervention basically ended up you know pushing prices all the way down to the one third beyond the 130 so that was what's that maybe about 2000 pips right so you've got you know if that the same thing happens around there there's a lot of money to be made if you can time it right so going back to the chart just keep an eye out really on if prices start to go higher for that for that yen for any kind of short trades in the meantime if prices do pull back to this to this area here actually in fact I'll use this this one here prices do pull back to this zone just naturally and normally then I think the dollar is probably still likely to be a buy against against the yen so if it keeps going higher hmm you want to potentially look to buy the yen but if it stays around this area here pulls back into this demand zone I think that's going to be a nice potential buy of course you can also look for buyers down here nobody knows which zone is exactly going to work of course you know you have to wait for your entries whatever your entries are and some other analysis that are beyond really this video but ultimately yeah you know either one of these levels to look for a potential buy on that dollar if again the Fed tend to remember gonna remain a bit hawkish at least if they're gonna hike at least one more time moving on to the dollar Swiss Frank and a dollar Swiss both central banks are pretty much hiking rates you had price pretty much move you know auction to move sideways as some people describe it but it's just a basically price acceptance between this price here which was 0.901 or 9 so yeah 901 and 0.89 cents so that's really where prices are found you know buyers and sellers in agreement of what an expensive or bargain prices are now not really looking at this pair to be fair but if you are then probably looking at either a move back down into this demand zone before looking at long trades or looking at the pullback into a supply zone maybe somewhere up at the highs before looking at a short trade but yeah this the Swiss National Bank are pretty hawkish even though that necessarily need to be because inflation is down by that 2% target but the they pretty much are continuing to be quite hawkish on their interest rates so that should support the Swiss National Bank moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD did find some support at that demand zone from from September 2022 about maybe nine months ago did react from there and so we've come up into the top end of this supply zone and so yeah you've got a central bank where the both central banks are looking to hike rates the inflation this week for Canada slowed but not enough to take hike off the table according to the markets annual rate falls to 3.4% and key core measures aged down GDP and jobs data may still force my Clems hand next month and so GDP actually came out as supporting a potential rate hike but again Canadian inflation is slow to its weakest pace in two years and core measures edge lower reducing but not removing pressure on the central bank for another interest rate hike next month so I think the the probabilities of a hike up maybe around about 50-50 and so with that I'm still a buyer of the Canadian dollar but just not against the US dollar at the moment I think if you want to delete that level and draw actually another demand zone around here I think that's a decent and then what you're looking for if you're looking for a buy on the dollar right then you're looking for problem I shall start with the buyer a buy on the Canadian dollar against the US dollar then you're looking at either a short trade from here or a short trade from just the zone further up right here now if you're looking for a buy on the US dollar then you have to make the prices to come back down into this zone and then look for a nice buy trade to the upside but again that would depend on which central bank is the hawkish who's going to be holding first and the divergence between the two which I don't really see a divergence between them too so I'm not looking to trade those that currency pound dollar so the pound dollar pull back not quite into this demand zone but there is some demand there also is where you do have actually some supply right here as well now the pound didn't really have much news last week but there was a meeting with the central banks I think it's called Sintra and where the Bank of England the ECB and the Federal Reserve pretty much all met I think that you're seeing them on the screen right now I think that's all with the all of them Christine Lagarde Andrew Bailey Jerome Powell and Ueda right a governor Ueda for the Bank of Japan and pretty much Ueda was the odd one out so the Bank of England the headline is is that the Bank of England's Bailey hints rates may be higher for longer than expected so yeah he says that he's always been interested in the market that the market thinks the peak will be short-lived in a world where we're dealing with more persistent inflation he said on the panel Wednesday afternoon and so the UK at the moment have really persistent inflation which means that the central bank are pretty much forced to continue to high crates even if they don't want to because their mandate is to get inflation down to 2% and so if that causes a recession oh then I guess so be it right but at the moment it looks like the the pound should be a buy at least in the short term until really those economic cracks really do start to show in the overall numbers and so I think any pullbacks into a demand zone is going to be a decent area to look for by trade and that is also providing that the US also kind of ease up and their inflation starts to come down to right so if the US inflation is coming down then they're likely they're less likely to actually high crates and also if the if the UK inflation remains sticky or goes higher then that's going to be a potential that's going to be a potential but a buy anyway for the the pound dollar is likely to be a buy for the pound dollar so that's where you are if you do want to get short on the on the pound because you believe that the the UK economy is falling it's going to have an influence on price then I think any pullbacks into these highs the 1 to 8s are going to be decent areas to look for any kind of short trades on the British pound so euro dollar euro dollar had a really nice really nice but a decent trade so far on this some of the guys got in as well at this at these areas the 108 maybe around 108 50s end up being a nice profit will stop on trade but yeah when when the data came out for the for the Fed that the inflation was coming lower what we already knew for that week was that the euro area core inflation quickens again in a setback for the ECB and you know again it's described as a setback because the central bank trying to get inflation down and core inflation is one of the key readings for a central bank and if inflation correlation went up which it did right so underlying gauge rises to 5.4% overshadowing their headline figure right the core inflation actually ticked up slightly and since bank is trying to get it down then it is a bit of a setback for the ECB right because they want inflation to fall but for for a trader we knew that if inflation is is is rising then it forces the central bank to have to high crates and when you've got a central bank another central bank like the Fed who are actually may have take maybe a very high core to off the table because their inflation is going lower then that should push prices higher which it did on on the Friday so the continuation will do will be determined by the jobs this week right so if you're in a trade right now in your long and you're thinking to yourself well do I take profit or wherever it is you can be driven by the fundamentals right so there's no need to necessarily exit the trade unless the data doesn't support you know your your trade idea right so you're the reason why you're going long your dollars is because you think that the the ECB are going to be more hawkish than the Federal Reserve right and so that should push prices higher but if the data comes out and doesn't support that that trade idea then you can consider taking you know the profits that you that you have if you haven't taken any kind of partial profits or anything like that but as we are right now wherever you are right now I would say you've got a pretty say this is where you've got your second supply zone when you have again wide supply zones like this one of the things that you can do is look for some support and resistance of your support and resistance within that area and to me it looks like there is probably where you've got decent support and resistance that you've got resistance there resistance resistance support there support there resistance resistance so price does come up here right and you want to be shorting the the euro then you know into that level just above it I think is decent for a short trade if you want to buy the euro I don't think prices are really proving that there is strong demand just yet so I'm not I hesitate to put any kind of demand in and around this area and so I would probably wait for prices to pull back down so they'll you know beyond the 108 to 107 eight twos before looking at going long because like I said for now there's not really strong demand in around this area but if price does you know prove that there is strong demand and all you're doing is then waiting for some sort of pullback into supply before then going long around here so yeah at the moment daily supply and demand zones is nothing there for now there is on the lower time frame though a set up around here which I term a CPR so there is a CPR intraday in this area but again I'm not really going to go into that in this video looking at the euro yen and again we've just seen the euro strengthen against the yen the yen's been weak across the board for months now as they have had a dovish central bank so we also have a demand zone right there now for me I would say the first area I'm looking to probably get involved as a buy would be where there is again some support at least some minimum as a bare minimum some horizontal support in the distance within that demand zone so you want to wait for that you know prices to kind of pull back down into that zone and then look for some sort of buy trade there or at the very bottom of that demand zone I think is going to be decent for a potential buy of course you know buying the euro over the yen as long as again the yen in the Bank of Japan don't intervene right if they intervene then all bets are off the table so in terms of buying the euro you'll be buying the yen so let's see what happens this week but as it stands I think you know the euro is a buy euro pound and so euro pound again not really a pair that I'm that interested in because again two quite aggressive central banks and then because you've got two central banks what happens you've got really an auction market a ranging market you did have a stop-hunt above the level right which basically was right there so this is where the stop-hunt was right here but again not really a pair that I'm looking to to trade because there's no real clear direction I know you can trade this as an auction as a as a ranging market type trade but I guess it's a bit more difficult to determine how far prices are gonna go you know fall in your favor right because if if you've got another strong central bank then it's more it's harder for that price to necessarily fall all the way down there might just stay here right and maybe just auction between that high and that low so the downside is limited the upside is limited so there are issues there but if you do want to look to trade this then the prices do come down to this demand zone and I think you do want to be a buyer of the euro against the pounds maybe the pounds fortunes might reverse a little bit then that's a decent area to look for any kind of buy trades Australian dollar US dollar and price did react from that area there on that demand zone I think that must have been on the Tuesday but then there wasn't great news for the for Australia as their cooler inflation bolsters the case for RBA to stand pat so consumer prices eased following an 8% annual drop in fuel costs and currency extends losses to 1% this traders paired back rate hike bets and so because their data came out and inflation again slowed was coming down the market assumed at the time that the central bank may not hike rates but that has slightly changed and I think that they will hike rates or the probabilities that they will hike rates are increasing and so let's see what happens if they don't hike rates on Tuesday then you can expect prices to really kind of fall at least down to the 64s but to me it doesn't make sense for them to to pause again they've already paused once and to pause twice is not really something that central banks really want to do but you never know this is good it's been crazy fundamentals recently so let's see what happens but I would expect them to continue hiking and so as hiking when they do hike they tend to hike in a cycle so yeah I think I think this could be some support if price does you know maybe you know push past this supply zone and probably looking for any kind of pullback into a demand zone before looking at getting long I think that's probably the best way to kind of play this but you know trying to get in right now you're in a bit of no man's land in terms of some any kind of demand zones but if you do want to get prepared for any kind of short trades because if you think you may think that the RBA may not hike rates fine if they don't hike rates and prices come up into that supply zone and I think that's going to be a very good short matter of fact gonna be a decent short to get short on this currency so again it's going to be driven by what happens on Tuesday and Tuesday is there so the RBA rate decision right 530 in the morning and then finally gold so gold not benefiting from you know the recent hawkishness from the Federal Reserve again if the dollar goes higher then gold tends to go lower but it did it has found a bit of support at this area of demand as well as support which I put in on the charts it must be a couple weeks ago so you got support support resistance support and so prices have found some technical support anyway and in terms of a demand that's a nice demand zone there fresh area of demand but what would drive prices higher right so what drive high prices higher on gold is if the Federal Reserve I guess FOMC comes out this this Friday and is you know shows that employment is going down right and I mean and maybe unemployment is is going higher so that is going to really kind of drive prices or if the labor market remains resilient and tight as they say then you're probably going to see you probably might likely see gold actually fall all the way down to the 1840s so again prices are fundamentally driven by the by the fundamental data so yeah interesting to say the least any pullbacks into supply probably might want to start to look for the potential to get involved somewhere around there or maybe somewhere at these these highs if you're looking to short the short gold and buy the dollar right so you buy the dollar gold is like a proxy for buying or selling the dollar so those are your options and that brings us to the end of the weekly video hope you enjoyed the analysis and take care until the next video speak to you soon you're right oh so I wanted to go over this euro pound trade it's not a pair that I had only on my watch list but I thought it was interesting because I know yesterday we were talking about this and I'd highlighted this this we were talking about this from yesterday and from the perspective of you know short traders being caught short traders stops being taken out but also as well I was mentioning that it's it's probably more about the liquidity side of things and so I thought I'd make a video really going over the I guess the basics of liquidity and I guess everyone kind of understands this it's all over YouTube you know liquidity is above the market and below the market but I'm gonna I guess talk about this but with the fundamental side of things right and how it actually ended up playing out which was in the favor of the fundamental right so you know liquidity is everywhere right it's always above a level and below a level but what gives you the extra edge is and the probability on you know to trade in your favor is if you understand what's what's maybe should be happening in terms of currency strength and currency weakness via you know the central banks and so first things first you know this was our typical setup which was you know stop hunt nice accurate level and what we had was let me just get the bar rebates all right so you had a nice setup here and price you know produced a nice stop hunt and as we came down pre news right so the news was was was due at 12 o'clock the interest Bank of England interest rate decision which ended up being 5% they hiked by 50 basis points and the forecast was for a 25 basis point right so they hiked more than the market expected which should be more hawkish right should be and typically it's nothing is a is a 100% guarantee there are obviously other things that the market does look at but you would expect that to happen but this is this is obviously just some hindsight bias right so the market you know the smart money was positioning themselves buying for even cheaper and then you know stop hunted a lot of traders who had their stops placed above the market yeah in anticipation of buying the British pound because in order to buy the British pound on the euro pound you have to basically go short right so you're buying the British pound to go short and so yeah so actually I won't do that so what happened was is that the smart money was getting in you know first right taking out all the retail stops above the market right so next what you have is prices go and do something like this and what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna zoom down into the one minute timeframe chart and so not only were they buying here yeah and buying the British pounds are shorting here when it comes to you know liquidity hunting one of the things that you must be aware of is that if there's not enough liquidity below the market then they will the the the institutions will look for liquidity above the market meaning that at 12 o'clock you had this move here yeah let me just go back yeah we had this move here it was a surprise 50 bases point hike nice surprise everybody is saying buy the British pound which is basically short this this currency yeah this currency pair now in order for the shorts to continue right there needs to be enough by orders which is the liquidity right so in order for you to continue to show there needs to be someone to sell to you meaning or someone needs to be on the other side of your trade right there needs to be lots of buying liquidity here but the question is is who is buying in the face of the of that news right who's willing to buy you know it might be you know some entities out there but ultimately with such a shock like what we saw an unexpected surprise the liquidity is probably likely to dry up right to the underneath the market and so if there isn't enough buying to facilitate selling yeah because as you sell there needs to be someone on the other side of that trade needs to be a buyer at this price they need to be a buyer at this price a buyer at that price buyers at that price buyers at that price there's no buyers there then what happens is is that the the market will look for the liquidity above the market so as we start to go forward yeah there's a lot of liquidity above the market so imagine you sold you managed to you know get in just before you know the the news came out on the anticipation that prices were going to drop your stop loss is also what's a buy order yeah and your take profit is a buy order because stop loss if you're if you if you bought at let's say 85 sorry 86 05 yeah and you get stopped out at 86 20 you are forced to buy back at a higher price which means that you obviously lose whereas if you you know take profit at a lower price then you bought for then obviously you win right now technical analysis says place your stop losses here above this level of you know resistance right there and it would have been a level of resistance right then and there's not too many retail traders for example that will place their stop losses you know especially on like these lower time frames like the one minute the five minute the 15 minute and even a half an hour 30 minute charts will place their stop losses you know have maybe you know 10 15 pip stop losses above a or below a level so you would have had traders who would have been getting involved in here with tight stop losses because they like the good risk reward not expecting prices to come back but because all the buying liquidity yeah is above the market and it's hardly any below the market these guys are now yeah either being stopped out or being put under pressure if they don't trade with stop losses right and it's that's the kind of capture side of things imagine the trader who bought somewhere down here right because maybe they were slipped on their broker and they even though they pressed by here they weren't filled until somewhere down here so anyways you've got stop losses you know above the market and this is what was happening because again you know who is buying where's the liquidity in the face of in the face of that you know that news and so you also had you know savvy traders who thought you know what I'll put my stop losses probably somewhere above you know that level there and so they ended up being stopped out right and when you get stopped out money transfers from the loser to the winner meaning that meaning that if you you know if you get stopped out right and you weren't sure when you're forced to sell right again in fact when you're forced to sell right because you're forced to buy matter of fact sorry if you sold right money goes from the loser which is you to the other side who's the entity taking the other side of your trade which is the broker or you know the bank etc right and so what they're doing is as a transfer of wealth first of all happening and also what happens is is that at the same time yeah a couple of things are happening it allows first of all the entities the banks institutions to do what to actually start to short yeah right and sell into lots of buying now not only are they looking there are orders being triggered that are going to them there are traders who would have looked at this large candle yeah and fought to themselves well this is a bit of a technical strategy where you don't take the first move to the downside in fact it's a fake out and I want to go long now yeah so at the same time that traders are being stopped out there's a lot of buying liquidity in this area because traders are now reversing their either reversing their positions yeah or new traders are getting involved in going yet we knew it was a fake out let's go long yeah never buy you know at the first move etc so you also have buying going on right lots of new buy orders and in order to go long on this pair right you have to buy the euros you have to you know this it's basically demand orders yeah and so there's lots of buy liquidity and who's taking the other side of that who's able to buy for a cheaper price because the entities don't want to buy you know down here especially obviously knowing that the Bank of England have hiked by 50 basis points yeah retail traders who have no patience or you know I have no don't you know understand the fundamental side of things and they just you know very impulsive and FOMO into trades you know trying to capture every move you know again you know stopped out and then they get introduced into being the other side of liquidity which is basically the liquidity which allows the the institutions to buy yeah at a better price yeah and so they've now gone long more liquidity but there's definitely more buy liquidity up to up these this price yeah and then no sooner how they got in right then prices start to go against them and so the institutions were able to buy or short right going into this area said so retail traders have been not caught only down here but now they've been caught up the top and probably been stopped out right and so the the smart money pretty much are you know doing what they normally do and the overall really direction of the market should be and I say should typically and it's never 100% a guarantee because you know that we're trading the probabilities and trading is all about probabilities but when you have a 50 basis point surprise hike yeah typically unless there is you know maybe the central bank you know may have been maybe a bit dovish in the speech afterwards who knows there are other reasons why 50 basis points might not be the most hawkish result and might not be necessarily drive prices in a certain direction but ultimately it usually should you know the price really should have went to to the downside overall and so I'll just go up to a higher timeframe like the four hour right and this is what you would see and just kind of forward and this is what eventually happened yeah because again there wasn't enough liquidity for prices to go lower instantly which meant that the market had to then go higher to take out everybody else and eventually you know it went in its direction and so yeah fundamentally it's important to understand what's going on yes you know I get you know loads and loads of questions why didn't the pound sell off or why didn't the power why did the pound do this or why did the pound do that on a very kind of short-term basis whenever truck people trying to figure out what's happening fundamentally and there's only so much I can kind of go into you know for YouTube videos but from the perspective of you know just an overall general understanding of you know why prices do what they do in the very very very very short-term if you're scratching your head and thinking to yourself what is going on here why isn't price doing what it's supposed to do then it's usually you know just a liquidity thing right it's a it's you know there's not enough orders and no one's gonna know how much orders are in the market and what you know is definitely happening and when it's gonna happen 100% of the time but whenever you see something like this happen one of the factors is the banks are still positioning themselves you know and they are just basically drawing in retail liquidity other institutional liquidity who are maybe none the wiser right and then they will push prices to where they want it to go and so yeah so liquidity basics with fundamental analysis the likelihood was for prices to go to the downside and eventually it did it was also helped as well by I think there was some good news out of the the UK today with regards to retail sales and I think there wasn't great news for the for the euro in terms of I think it was I think there must have been some German some German news that didn't come out fantastic for the for the euro so we did have what is it retail sales yeah so it was forecasted to be minus 0.2 came out as 0.3 which obviously was was was quite helpful as well so with that being said there you go there's liquidity right and this is not a strategy per se this is not okay this is what happens every time every situation is different as I said nobody knows how much liquidity is in the market for prices to do what they do right but if you see something like that happen right after really good news or really bad news and price does the opposite it could just be one of the things to look for is actually just you know it's liquidity let the dust settle and once the dust settles as nothing if nothing has changed then you can start to position yourself in fact in the direction of the of the banks and what the news you know came out and it's not again it's not every single news event it's really important news I say this all the time really look towards you know GDP inflation interest rates those are really the three main measures and market moving I guess news events that will move currency price overall if it's not been priced in of course already this is this is based off of a surprise news event as well right because if the news comes out and it's as expected just consider it being priced in and there's no edge there right there's no there's no there's no like I said no edge that you can kind of get an advantage of but whenever you have a surprise and the market is wrong-footed and these types of things happen then you can always you know there's a way to take advantage of this anyways hope that helps guys take care and speak to you soon