fundamental principles of freedom, rational self-interest, and individual wants. This is the Iran Book Show. All right, everybody. Welcome to Iran Book Show on this Friday, April 5th. I am broadcasting to you from Buenos Aires, Argentina, in my hotel room. So far, so good with the internet. They said it's been stable and we didn't do so well a couple of days ago from São Paulo, where the internet basically died after I tried that episode. There was basically no internet in my room for 24 hours afterwards. So there we go. Breaking news. We're getting it on the chat, really. But I have seen it reported that there was an earthquake just a little while ago in New York City of all places. New York and New Jersey. A 4.8 magnitude earthquake, which is very unusual. And there was slight shaking felt as far north as Hartford, Connecticut, as far south as Wilmington. And no reports of damage or injuries yet. But there is disruption in the New York metro area at both the, let's see, the Newark airport. Yeah, it looks like Newark airport. Lots of planes holding patterns, not landing. So yeah, definitely some people felt it. Dave says it was pretty significant. He felt it. He woke me up. Woke me him up. That's good because you've got to catch the, I mean, Dave is waking up at 11 o'clock eastern time. That's good. Must have had a long night. Hopefully it was rewarding. All right. So yeah, unusual. Also, I wasn't going to talk about this, but since we're talking about earthquakes, there was a big earthquake 7.2 in Taiwan. When was it? Yesterday. Before yesterday.  And it was right inland. It was right on the coast. So it was right in a populated area. The buildings I saw collapsed. Last I heard there were somewhere like 900 people missing, but I haven't really kept up with the story. You know, in Taiwan is on the belt of fire with Japan and other places in Asia. And a lot of earthquakes over there, and they're prepared for them and they're ready for them, an earthquake like that. And pretty much anywhere else in the world would cause dramatic damage. An interesting reports coming out of that. 7.2 earthquake in Taiwan was the TSMC, largest chip manufacturer in the world. The most sophisticated chip manufacturer in the world. Didn't hurt production. Didn't hurt assembly line. It seems like they were ready for it and they built those things. They have, as Rob says in the chat, earthquake mastery. I think many of the countries on that belt of fire do Japan. And although Japan has had some really devastating earthquake or some really that have been incredibly destructive. Of course they also had the tsunami. Luckily this one I think was onshore. So you didn't get the tsunami effect, but you did get the earthquake. Jennifer says Alaska is also on the ring of fire. Yes, it really is. California is on the ring of fire too, right? It really goes up California coast all the way to Alaska across and then down through the Pacific on that other side. So it's, but New York, New York had an earthquake. Go figure. All right, let's jump in. This morning we got employment numbers, unemployment numbers and employment numbers. That is the number of new payrolls. The market was waiting for this and payrolls jumped by 300,000. So 303,000 new jobs in a sense were created based on this particular measure. That is significantly 50% higher than what economists and analysts were expecting. So this is much better performance for the economy than what people were expecting. Unemployment dropped to 3.8, but the real important number is the number of jobs created. This is good news and bad news for the stock market. So it's good news in the sense that the economy is humming along. Again, in spite of everybody's complaints, in spite of everybody being convinced that this is the worst economy ever and all of that, the economy just keeps humming along and 300,000 new jobs is a significant number. A significant number in a month, in any month, and again 50% higher than anybody was expecting. The question now is, and this is based on conventional economic theory, is this a reflection that inflation is continuing, that inflation has not been put under control? Or is this independent of inflation? To what extent is this caused by the false signals of an inflationary economy? Because if inflation is continuing, then we can expect the Federal Reserve to either maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, or actually increase interest rates. The market is actually anticipating later this year the Fed decreasing interest rates. But if the economy is buzzing, is growing significantly, the Fed will not decrease interest rates. So the market has to weigh these two factors. On the one hand, the economy is doing really, really well. On the other hand, interest rates might stay high. As I've told you before, everything else held constant. If interest rates go down, asset prices go up, including stocks, right?  Everything else held constant, which is never the case. So the market was anticipating interest rates going up, down, and therefore the stock market going up. But now it looks like interest rates might not go down, but offsetting that is the fact that the economy is doing well, and job creation is really good, and maybe that's good enough. So again, you've got these offsetting factors. The stock market this morning when I looked was fairly flat because they can't decide which effect is a greater effect. And this really is going to be interesting election-wise. That is, do Americans with 300,000 new jobs created, do Americans continue to feel badly about the economy, and do they resent Biden because of it? Or if job creation continues like this, and by the way, if interest rates stay up, then they're paying higher interest rates. They have higher mortgages, higher credit card fees, all of that. And therefore they feel poor, so the extra jobs don't matter. And as a consequence, they blame Biden and they vote for Trump. Or is this increased job creation, can that go together with ultimately lowering interest rates later in the year and slowly Americans feeling better about the economy and Biden gets elected because people give him credit for managing this economy? Really, really hard to tell. But overall, I think you have to say to find the perspective of us, of people participating in the economy. This is good news. The economy is doing well. We were expecting, I was expecting, pretty much everybody was expecting we would be in a recession right now, and we are not. And this is in an economy that's growing fairly nicely. And under those circumstances, again, it will be interesting to see how market response and how everything else is happening. You know, the numbers are the numbers. People have emotions and feelings about how the economy is doing. But the reality is that these are the same numbers calculated in the same way as they've been calculated for at least the last 15 years. They did change how these numbers are calculated sometimes in the 70s and 80s.  The fact is that job creation has been outstanding over the last couple of years and that is surprising. And probably won't last long term because a lot of this is a consequence of government spending. A lot of this is the subsidies. A lot of this is the chip act and the inflation reduction act and all of that where the government is spending money that it really doesn't have. And that creates short-term economic growth at the expense of the long term. But the short-term economic growth is there. And people can pretend it doesn't exist. People can pretend the economy is horrible. People can pretend people are out there dramatically struggling. But the reality is that people are buying lots of stuff. They are taking on credit card debt, but usually people take on credit card debt when they feel optimistic about the ability to pay it back. And it's hard to justify the kind of negative perspective people have out there. Now, gold prices are very high right now. They were 2315. I think yesterday they hit an all-time ever high. But it's really hard to interpret gold prices. Gold prices are an inflation hedge. That means that today with these job numbers, gold should have gone up and yet gold went down today. Are they a end of the world hedge? And as geopolitical uncertainty rises, gold prices go up, that I think is more likely. That is with Israel bombing Iran, the Iranian embassy, which we'll talk about in a minute, that has increased tensions in the Middle East and certainly increased the possibility that Iran is going to launch a major attack against Israel, even against the United States. That increases geopolitical tensions. That raises gold prices. The same with what's happening in Ukraine and Ukraine attacking Russian refineries. In a sense, that is a kind of next step in terms of that war. In terms of how many of these jobs are part-time or full-time, I mean, the lead participation rate moved higher. So it went up. Some more people are working, which is good in terms of the number of people available. Now, if you look at, let me just see, wages rose 0.3%, which is 4.1 from a year ago, which is in line with Wall Street's expectations and a relatively high rate. And then, let's say, growth in employment came usually from the usual sectors, healthcare 72%, government 71, 72,000, government 71,000, lesion hospitality, 49,000. And let's see, I'm looking for the numbers for part-time. I really don't see the numbers for part-time. But the reality is, and this has been true for a long time, the reality is that this economy is creating jobs, people are gaining jobs. Remember, we've also got massive illegal immigration coming in, right? Highest numbers of immigrants coming in, maybe ever. And those immigrants are also being absorbed into the labor market. And indeed, a lot of people are suggesting that the economy is doing as well as it's doing because of the illegal immigrants coming into the country and working. And when you work, you create economic activity, which creates opportunities for people, which creates jobs and brings in capital, which creates more jobs. So generally, immigration is good for an economy. And whether it's illegally legal, what matters is not whether it's legally legal. The only thing that matters for the economy is that they're working, right? That they're not on welfare. And of course, if they were illegal immigrants, it's unlikely that they get welfare. So they have to work, and work is good for the economy. The more people work in the economy, the more the economy grows. So it could very well be that a lot of this is a consequence of the historical high levels of illegal immigration. All right, let's talk a little bit. Let's talk some about Israel. I know we talk about this a lot, but there's just a lot going on. So let's talk first about the aid workers who were killed. Israel accidentally killed seven world kitchen workers, aid workers. This is Jose Andre, the famous chef's charity that goes around the world to areas where there's a shortage of food and provides for that, and provides food, provides meals. Seven of the aid workers were killed, and the world went apoplectic. The world just went nuts. I mean, Israel is now the devil. It has been completely demonized. There is nobody worse in the world than Israel. Because in a war zone, aid workers were accidentally shot at. This is what happens in a war zone. This is the risk you take by going into a war zone. This is not the first time. This is not the last time in a war zone. Aid workers will be accidentally fired upon and accidentally be killed to blow this out of proportion as the world seems to be doing. And as the Americans seem to be doing is just ghastly and ridiculous. Now, Israel has already dismissed two senior officers in their drone units. They've dismissed them over the mistake that has led to this. They've also reprimanded a number of senior officers. But it's not clear. It's not clear that any of this is justified. Or is this being done because the world is going nuts and everybody's freaking out and everybody's flipping out because of this. It's sad whenever somebody is killed, who is innocent and these people were innocent and they were trying to help out. But the reality is that this is what happens in war. And the blame for this lies squarely with Hamas. Every death in war is the moral responsibility of those who initiate the fight. Israel has, you know, about a third of all the Israeli casualties in this war are the consequence of friendly fire.  They didn't do it by on purpose. They're not killing other Israelis on purpose. They're doing it by accident. Accidents constantly happen in a warfare. When I was in military intelligence, you know, I witnessed at least one case of military incompetence and one case of just complete accident where an Israeli pilot basically took out a whole tank unit, Israeli tank unit, thinking they were Syrians. And why he thought they were Syrians? Who knows? Because they were clearly labeled and communications happened. But most of the casualties in the first Gulf War that the Americans took, most of the casualties were friendly fire. So, you know, this is, again, this is what happens in war. And all these people in the media making a big deal out of this, shame on you.   And the same to José André. Shame on you, José André, for implying that this was done on purpose. I understand that you're upset because your people got killed. But, and it's sad and, you know, I get it. But this is war. You send people into war zones. There is a good possibility that this will happen.  By-demonstration flipped out. The by-demonstration basically telling the Israelis that, you know, they better investigate this. They better do what's necessary. And then they better increase the safety of civilians. And they better do this and they better do that. And they better increase the amount of aid going into the Gaza Strip. And there really is a sense now that the by-demonstration, the people within the by-demonstration are ready to flip on Israel and become full-on anti-Israel. And a lot of this has to do with the elections. I mean, the reality is that Biden is going to have a hard time winning Michigan without the Arab vote in Michigan. He's going to have a hard time winning anyway, particularly in the swing states. He's going to have a hard time winning in the swing states. If he doesn't get the far-left vote, if he doesn't get the youth vote, young people in America are dramatically anti-Israel. Indeed, surveys right now of Americans showing 65% of Americans object to the way Israel is handling the war, 65% and maybe more after this last occurrence, it could be up to 70%. That means a significant number of Republicans and a majority of independents and a majority of Democrats have flipped to being anti-Israel. It was much, it was over 50% supported Israel when the war started and now 65 to 70% are against Israel. This is, by the way, what happened with the food kitchen is part of the consequence of Netanyahu. What is it? What's the word? You know, delaying, delaying, delaying, delaying, delaying, delaying, delaying. Diddling. I don't know what you call it. It's unbelievable to me and I've been saying this on day one. You can go back and check. I've been saying this on day one. This had to be a fast operation. The slower it is, the more accidents there will be. The more civilians will die. The more the world will turn against Israel, the more difficult it will become. So now how are they going to go to Rafa? Who's going to support them going to Rafa? I mean the U.S. is literally threatening to stop shipping weapons to Israel. How long has it been since Netanyahu said they were going to Rafa? Two months? It's truly absurd. You know, the war should have started. I mean Israel should have engaged with ground troops much earlier than it did. It should have done this much faster than it did and it should have already been Rafa. I know they haven't finished cleaning up the rest of Gaza and they want to clean up before they go to Rafa, but they needed to have gone and then cleaned up the whole of the Gaza Strip at the same time. I know this operation is super difficult. I know that they've done an amazing job in terms of minimizing Israeli casualties. Good for them for that. But the longer they wait, the harder it's going to be to actually defeat Hamas. The latest is the Americans are pushing Israel. We need a ceasefire. We need a ceasefire. We need a ceasefire. But the barrier to ceasefire has been over and over again. Hamas, not Israel. Israel has proposed more and more and more accommodation. And the more accommodation they offer, the more Hamas says no. Even the Israeli Supreme Court. Here you go. Even the Israeli Supreme Court. Typical Israeli, right? Typical Israeli Supreme Court, which is on the left, is now saying there's not enough humanitarian aid getting into the Gaza Strip and they want the government to explain itself. It's truly, truly unbelievable. Truly unbelievable. Right. Okay, so one other issue relating to Israel. And again, this could have dramatic impact on America as well. As I talked about, I can't sure if I think it was Friday, or whenever I did a show before I left. No, it wasn't Friday. It was Monday. Today's Friday. Israel has, Israel attacked a building within the compound, within the Iranian embassy compound in Syria. It took down a building, 13 senior people within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, or people associated with it from either Lebanon or Syria were killed, including three very, very, very senior officials, very close to the leadership in Iran. Iran since then has threatened severe consequences. This morning, the Hezbollah said this is a new chapter and expect severe consequences. Hassan Nasrallah in a speech this morning, he says, this attack marks a turning point. There's what preceded this and what comes after it. So it's what it performs, what comes after, and what comes after is going to be completely different. So Israel is, I think, on alert for a potential attack in the north from Hezbollah. It's also the case that this morning there was a report of a massive cyber attack, a large-scale cyber attack on the Israeli Ministry of Justice of all ministries that is probably origins in Iran. So Iran will probably try to disrupt Israel through cyber attacks. This will be interesting to see how Israel's cybersecurity holds up. And at the same time, it's going to be interesting to see what is launched towards Israel in terms of missiles. There is also the expectation that American bases in the Middle East will also be attacked by Iranian-affiliated groups. On the other hand, Iran might decide to keep America out of it and just go after Israel and make it just with Israel. Potentially, you could see Iran launching, Iraq, the Iranian-affiliated groups in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, all in a coordinated effort, launching drones and missiles towards Israel, really testing the Israeli missile defense system with missiles coming in basically from every direction and all fronts. This is what Israel is getting geared up for and getting ready for. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Iran really wants to take on Israel directly. If they launch missiles from Iran, that would basically signal Iran as a legitimate target for Israel to attack directly, which it never has, at least not covertly, but not overtly. So it's going to be interesting. Now, Iran has to be careful because if it attacks on a massive scale, it's in trouble. Israel has ground-to-ground missiles that can hit pretty much any target in Iran. It has the ability to send airplanes to Iran, although I think the U.S. would have to at least give a thumbs up for that. It has the capacity to really hurt the Iranians and whether Iran wants that full-on engagement with Israel, hard to tell, it would be interesting. We will see, so a lot of suspense around that. All right, let's see. So a lot of a few crazy domestic stories. Seattle Public Schools, public school districts have made a decision to shut down 11 schools that are dedicated to highly capable learners, gifted students. They include three elementary schools, five middle schools, and three high schools. One of the main problems with these schools is these schools have a dramatic over-representation of whites and Asian students. They are one of the least diverse gifted programs in the country. So the solution to this from Seattle Public Schools is to shut these schools down. They will send these kids to regular schools. In these schools, by the way, these kids form a cohort from when they're very young, and they go through elementary, middle school, and high school as a cohort. So they're studying together, and there's a lot of stability there, and they feed off of each other, and they advance as a cohort. They are now going to break up the cohort, send them to their neighborhood public schools. The school districts are aiming to create some special programs for highly capable students in the neighborhood schools, but they will be exposed to a diverse student body, and they will break up the cohorts, so the students will be in different classes with different kids throughout. This is all part of, as you would expect, the attempt of the Seattle School District to deal with equity and historical inequality or inequity, and the idea here is always whenever you see inequality, equity discussed, it's always the case that the solution to it is going to be penalize the able, knock the able down, make it harder for the able to be successful, chop down the tall poppies. And I really, this story, I can't think of anything more evil being done today in America. Of all the things that woke and smoked and everything else does, there is nothing more evil than trying to knock down the quality of education that the smartest kids get. There's nothing more evil than taking talent and ability and repressing it and suppressing it. And all of us suffer when that happens. Not only these kids are suffering, and it's horrible, because they will never be able to completely live up to their potential, or at least the school district will try to make it impossible for them to live up to their potential. But all of us suffer because these are the people that start companies, these are the people that become scientists, these are the people that are going to engineer the sediments on Mars, these are the people that create new drugs that extend human life or the cure diseases. These are the people that actually in a significant way make a difference in the world. They do. That's the reality. People with high levels of intelligence are the people who have the potential to really, really make a difference in the world in terms of changing the world for the better from a business engineering in scientific perspective. So suppressing them, hurting them hurts all of us. And yet the goal of the egalitarian is destruction. The goal of egalitarian is destruction of the most able. The goal of the egalitarian is fundamental nihilistic. Fundamentally nihilistic. It's nihilistic and it's depressing and sad and horrible. And again, I can't think of anything worse that could be going on. This is the consequence of egalitarianism.  I hope parents of gifted kids, of talented kids, leave Seattle. They just leave or take their kids out of public schools and put them in private schools or get out. Get out of Seattle. It really is depressing. Alright, talk about another depressing story.  Another depressing story. So we talked about squatters.  It turns out that in San Francisco, there is a group called Homes Not Jails, that actually helps squatters, finds homes to squat in, trains them on how to get the law on their side. Here's a quote from, I guess, their website. There are two basic problems squatters have in gaining tenants' rights. They're not paying any rent. They're living there without the landlord's permission. Ooh, yeah. I mean, those are both big problems, right? But as impossible as it seems to get past these hurdles, it is doable. Talk to us. We can explain to you how it's doable. You know, so for example, they write, the landlord's permission does not necessarily have to be explicit. Permission or written down, doesn't have to be explicit or written down. A rental agreement can be written or implied by the conduct of the landlord. Thus, many squatters have found themselves in a squat which the landlord has known about and has given up for whatever reasons, yeah, given up, whatever reason, trying to get rid of them. Squatters can make an argument that when discovered by the landlord, they made an oral agreement with him, otherwise they, in other words, they can lie, to live there in exchange for maintenance and security of the property. So squatters can lie that they have an agreement with the landlord.  In San Francisco, homes not jails actually provides a link to a list of vacant properties in San Francisco that are ripe for the taking. So actual addresses where you can go in squat. So it really is unbelievable, unbelievable that this is allowed, right? I mean, basically what this website is, is encouraging criminal activity. It's encouraging people to break into other people's homes, destroy their property, and take over their property and steal it from them. It is a really disgusting phenomenon, and it turns out, it turns out, that homes not jail website are really just the San Francisco tenants union, which is a non-profit, right, which is highly connected politically, and is lobbies to shape city housing policies and has been doing so for decades. So we now have the San Francisco tenants union focused on encouraging squatters in the city of San Francisco.  And in the land of property rights, in the land of the American Constitution and Declaration of Independence, it seems like there's nothing people can do. The court system is so bugged down, so ineffective, and so inefficient, and the laws are so anti-landlord that, yeah, I mean, this is all driven by altruism. It's all driven by a lack of any kind of understanding of what rights mean. There is no such thing like squatter rights. There is no such thing as these invented rights. It is truly horrific the state of so much of this country. Okay, finally, the Biden administration, one of the things the Biden administration is working on, of course, is more electric vehicles. This will solve all the problems in the world if we just drove in electric cars. Well, one of the programs is a rule that is required already, roughly 25% of all new semi-trucks, those big trucks on the highways, or similar heavy-duty vehicles to be electric by 2032. That's eight years from now. Now, the rules about passenger cars are even more stringent. Two-thirds of them by 2032 have to be all electric. This is new cars. But 25% of all semi-trucks. Now, this is insanity. Semi-trucks travel for hundreds of miles, sometimes thousands of miles. A semi-truck can often do about a thousand miles on a tank full of diesel. Can do it with electricity. Electricity would barely get them a quart of that. Maybe a tenth of that. A long-haul electric truck has a maximum range of 500 miles. So it's half. So you're going to have to have a lot more stops. And of course, filling up diesel, I don't know how long that takes, doesn't take that long, versus charging electricity, a lot longer process to charge electricity. Also, these are power semi-trucks that cost us about $160,000. All electric is $457,000. Who's going to pay that difference? Who's going to pay that difference? That's, by the way, with the sleeper. That's with the sleeper cabin. Without a sleeper cabin, you've got 117,000, and electric is 211,000. So basically electric is double to two and a half times the diesel, and you can only do 500 miles. Whereas diesel trucks can do 1,000 to 2,000 miles on a single tank. The numbers are just insane. Now, Enron is crazy and sane, is going to raise the cost of doing everything in the United States, and lower standard of living quality of life. And that's why the fact that the economy is doing better, and it is doing better, in spite of your objections, does not change the fact that long-term, the Biden administration's economic policy are destructive to long-term economic growth and long-term economic prosperity. You can trade the short term for the long-term, and in this case, that's exactly what they're doing. All right, I think that's everything that I have covered. Let's see, we've got a bunch of superchatters. We've got a couple of superchats also from the show the other day. And let me see. I wanted to thank somebody here who gave 50 bucks. There it is. Siberian gave 50 dollars. Thank you, Siberian. He says, happy Friday, you're on. Happy to catch you live. Appreciate that. Were there any other stickers? I'm sure there were, but I missed. John did 10 dollars sticker. Thank you, John. We'll get to John's question from last time in a minute. I want to remind you that Enron Institute is the sponsor for the show, one of the sponsors for our show. The deadline for applying for scholarships for the OCCON, for the objectives conferences, a fantastic conference, spent with 4,500 people who share your values, share your philosophy, share your love of Enron, and great lectures and just great people. You know, the deadline for scholarships for that is April 15, so 10 more days. You can apply at enron.org.starthere. And then the other sponsor is Alex Epstein. Alex, of course, is the author of Energy Talking Points and the creator of, well, the mind behind Alex AI, which answers questions as if you're asking Alex, as if Alex is answering them, on all topics energy. It is an AI bot that is now being used by congressmen and energy executives and policymakers. And you should be using it, too. So I encourage you to go to alexepstein.substack.com, alexepstein.substack.com, subscribe to the substack, subscribe to the Energy Talking Points, and if you have a use for it, or at least check out the Alex AI, which is pretty cool. I still have to get back to figuring out how to create a Uron AI, but that would be cool as well. All right, let's go to our super chat, and we will go for that. John, this is from two days ago from my attempt, my attempt at doing a show from Sao Paulo Brazil says, have you ever changed your mind of someone, have you ever changed the mind of someone you're debating mid-debate? I'm guessing it's rare as changing someone's mind as a gradual and time-demanding experience that requires effort and honesty by the one being convinced. I don't think so. I don't think I've ever changed any of those minds during debate. And look, in a debate, you're not in the mind frame of, is he changing my mind? You're in the mind frame of how can I undermine this argument? How can I make my argument? How can I challenge what he just said? I don't think your mind is open to being changed during a debate. Certainly, I've said things that have challenged the other side, the other side has said things that have challenged me. You might not have an answer right on the spot, but I don't think I know of any occasion when a mind is being changed in a substantial way. Now, that is not true of the audience. I do know of a number of people whose mind was changed who were in the audience. So on a number of occasions, people have come up to me and told me that they attended one of my debates. And as a consequence of those debates, their mind was changed and ultimately led them to Redine Rand to follow me and do all the other stuff. So it is definitely the case that you can change the mind of the audience during a debate. And I know that I have because people have reported that their minds were changed. Thank you, Sean. Robert says, A birthday shout out to the love of my life. Happy birthday, Amy. Amy Nesu. Happy birthday, Amy. Thank you, Robert. Thank you for contributing to the wrong book show on Amy's birthday. That's very nice. NASA. Amy NASA. Yes. All right. Clock. Do statists seek to lock in wealth rather than destroy it? If you look at Europe and South America, most wealth is intergenerational for hundreds of years. They seek to destroy wealth creation and they seek to steal as much wealth as they can. What has happened in Europe and in Latin America and I don't think most wealth is intergenerational. Europe, Germany, UK, even France, they're all engaging in wealth creation and created a lot of wealth. A lot of intergenerational wealth was destroyed during World War II. A lot of factories, a lot of stuff was destroyed during World War II. So a lot of wealth has been created since World War II. That's not necessarily intergenerational. But what happens is both in Europe and certainly in Latin America, I think people have become super sophisticated about protecting their wealth, about figuring out ways to shield their wealth and the powers to be. So for example, I'm in Argentina right now. I read somewhere that Argentinians hold huge deposits of fat funds in foreign accounts that are unreported to the Argentinian authorities. The size of these accounts are larger than annual GDP than the annual Argentinian GDP. So they have figured out ways to have accounts in Switzerland or Cayman Islands or wherever that are not reported and they can preserve it. So the status would love to take that wealth, would love to steal that wealth. But again, rich families have figured out ways to protect it, preserve it, and shield it from the status. Adam, thank you for pointing out the interest rates. People are eager for a rate drop, but they often forget that is done when the economy is struggling. Careful what you wish for. Yes, and more than that, the reality is that interest rates right now are at least mortgage rates about where they were historically. That is they're not unusually high. I've had mortgages at these rates in the past. Anybody who remembers back to the 80s and 90s and even early 2000s, these interest rates were not that unusual. And so interest rates are high right now. Real interest rates are high. The short rate is particularly high as compared to the long rate. So the yield curve is inverted. Short rates are higher than the longer rates. But the long rate, the rate that is associated with mortgages, for example, and even the rates associated with credit cards are not higher than they were in boom towns like the 90s. It's just that we've gotten used to zero to very, very low interest rates, artificially very, very low interest rates. Now I think interest rates can be lower than they are right now, suddenly inflation comes down. But we lived during periods of negative real rates of return. That is, interest rates minus inflation being negative and that's abnormal, distorted. And a lot of the problems in the economy, a lot of the distortions in the economy, are indeed consequences of the negative interest rates that we lived with for so long. So, you know, be careful what you wish for is not only interest rates will come down when the economy is struggling, but also if interest rates come down too much, they will again, as they did in the 2010s, create more and more distortions in the economy which we will pay for one way or the other. And often we don't see the way we pay for it so we think there's no cost. But believe me, there's always a cost. There's always a cost. Right, Liam writes, on college campuses the left is preaching that words are violence. But actual violence like Antifa riots in October 7th is social justice. Yes, that's right. And they've been doing this for a long time. I mean, the idea of words are justice goes down to the microaggressions that was started over 10 years ago and that is the precursor to kind of the woke insanity but we already got signs of that back then. And yes, they are quite happy to tolerate real violence like October 7th and Antifa. And they are snowflakes. They are wimpy and their emotions are hurt and therefore it is a real injustice when somebody says something that offends them. It really is pathetic and it's intellectually lazy as to it's intellectually fraudulent and it elevates again emotions to and hurt emotions to the level of hurting emotions to the level of physical violence which is wrong on so many fronts and basically a precursor to silencing anybody who offends you and who gets to decide that we all know, you know, the dictator in charge gets to decide who is the offending party and who gets to be silenced. Hopper Campbell says, a part of me thinks everyone who's read Ayn Rand knows she's right. They don't have the courage to admit it. I think you're too generous to them. I also think you're too underestimate how difficult it is how difficult Ayn Rand is for people to accept or even to understand so many people just don't understand her and how unusual and exceptional it is for people to actually get it. So I don't think people know she's right. Some people do, and they evade it, but I think most people just don't get it. It goes right up. Joel, in Japanese anime, film and video games there's no wokeness and Japan is devoid of wokeness. Entertainment companies might have brought out Hollywood, so woke Hollywood would not exist, would have brought out Hollywood. Yeah, so that's great that there's no wokeness in Japanese anime. There really isn't much wokeness in a lot of cultures around the world. There's no wokeness in China. There's no wokeness in even in Europe, in the UK, but mainland Europe, there's very little of the wokeness insanity. But they're all challenged by other things. And I don't know that the Japanese entertainment companies are successful enough to be able to buy out Hollywood. Maybe they are, but I don't know that they are, and I'm not sure that even if they were successful enough that they could reform Hollywood because you would need writers who wanted to produce movies that went out woke, and the challenge in Hollywood is not just some corporate decision that we're going to go woke. It's the writers and everybody else who want to, this is what they want to produce. So it's not as easy as Japanese companies just buying out Hollywood and shifting it. You need to have the talent as well. I saw your debate with Matt brewing, and I don't think he gets invited to a lot of parties. However, Norway came up. For your information, 10% of Norway's 400 richest people have moved mainly to Switzerland because of dividends and wealth tax. Yeah, I didn't know that about Norway and I'm surprised that only 10%. But I think as a higher percentage in Denmark I remember a good friend of mine who's a billionaire who was in Denmark left and he lives in Switzerland, and even at the time when he lived in Denmark, he bought his car in Sweden. He had a home in Sweden, bought his car in Sweden because the taxes on automobiles in Denmark are like 400%. He bought the car in Sweden, had Sweden license plates, and so they find ways around the taxes. And of course he left Denmark, and then I was on some board of advisors for one of his funds, one of his businesses, and we had a meeting and everybody on that board of advisors who was wealthy lived outside of Denmark. They either lived in London or in Switzerland. So yes, the talent leaves. The talent leaves pretty quickly. Jeffrey, is there an objective position on circumcision? Well, there's no objective position on it because it's not a philosophical issue. You know, and I ran never wrote anything about circumcision, but Lenin Pekov has spoken about it. And I think the general view is that one should be anti-circumcision. Circumcision is there's no reason for it and there is a price that you pay. That is that the foreskin actually protects the sensitivity of the penis and you lose sensitivity with age if the foreskin is not there. So if you're circumcised, sex becomes in a sense less pleasurable physically because the skin is just it becomes desensitized and with the foreskin, that does not happen. So that I think is the best scientific evidence out there and there's no, as far as I know, scientific evidence to suggest that circumcision is good for you in any kind of sense. In any kind of sense. If there was a health issue then it wouldn't be an issue of consent. Parents do a lot of things to children without their consent. So the consent is not an issue. The issue is there a price you pay and the price you pay is that again, that you lose feeling and I think that it's not, if that's true then it's not worth it. It's just not worth it. Right, John, I guess this is the same question as before, just different. Better question, have you ever had someone you debated, approach you later on it afterwards and tell you you changed their mind? No, nobody's ever done that. If it has I can't remember, but I don't think so, no. I and Mirkat, would you go back to identifying as Jewish if it meant you could get to take the space laser for a spin by PS, Gaza must be destroyed. I mean, if I could get a spin on a space laser I would call myself anything. The space laser sounds super cool and if I can use it to, I don't know to tattoo some interesting word on Marjorie Taylor Greene's forehead than all the better for it. I have no idea where that question come from or where my answer came from for that matter. Jews in space this is a Marjorie Taylor Greene conspiracy theories about Jews with lasers. That doodle bunny does true focus lie between rage and serenity? No, I don't think it has to do with that. True focus lies in focusing your mind, it's engaging your mind, it's putting the energy into focusing on the world in terms of the focus of the lens, but in terms of your mind is engaged, fully engaged. Christian Klein if Iran would really directly attack Israel, at the same time Hezbollah attacked and maybe West Bank are pricing happen. You are staying out of the mess, could Israel alone win on full fronts? I'm worried. Yes, I mean, I believe Israel can, it will be incredibly costly and Israel will need help with ammunition and things like that. But Israel, you know, Iran is far away we're not talking about the real risk of ground troops, although Hezbollah could storm the border in the north but no, Israel could sustain itself, could in a sense win, I don't know what winning looks like with regard to Iran, but it could in a sense penalize whoever attacked it dramatically without being wiped out. So I think you should be worried because there will be significant casualties on the Israeli side many of them are civilian casualties many of them in the north of Israel where my parents live and my sister lives and brother so, you know, it's not going to be pleasant, but Israel I don't think this is the end of Israel if it happens. And if there was a real risk that it was the end of Israel, they would do it because that's what they want they want the end of Israel. Can you try to get an interview with Mossab Yusef? Yes, I will try. I've got a whole list of people I need to try to get interviews with, but I've I'm behind a lot of things, as you might have noticed. Joe, what is the fate fail? Free market here? Reagan never strong armed Japan into singing signing the plaza bubble never burst and the Japanese economy overtook the U.S. before the year 2000 what if the what if the false, maybe that's false what if the false free market to Reagan never strong armed Japan into signing the plaza accord bubble never burst and the Japanese economy overtook the U.S. before the year 2000 I doubt that any of I doubt that the Japanese economy would have overtaken the U.S. before the year 2000 what would have happened is the Japanese economy would have grown we would all be richer today, everybody the U.S. would be richer, Japan would be richer dramatically richer, China would be richer, I mean everybody in the world would benefited from a stronger, more vibrant Japan I mean it is Japan, a lot of the problems that Japan encountered were self-inflicted what did you do with Reagan they inflated their currency they created a massive real estate bubble other bubbles but if somehow Japan had managed it a fizz in a way that it did not collapse in 1991 I think Japan would be much richer and the rest of the world would be far better off so it would have been fantastic, really phenomenal Wes thank you $25 really appreciate it Kenny thank you for the sticker, really appreciate that John do you think every motivated action can be boiled down to an action that's motivated by love or fear, death in the movie Donnie Darko they try and tear this idea apart by claiming there's a whole spectrum of emotions I think there is a whole spectrum of emotions and the sense in which every decision you make is guided by either your desire for life or your default on that and you can call the desire for life love I don't know if I go that way but it's basically every choice you make is either pro-life or anti-life and then that's either for life or for death and that affects everything you do and you know while there is a spectrum of emotions those emotions can be categorized as pro-life, pro-death emotions but the fundamental is life and death it's not just love and fear there are a lot of emotions and all those emotions can be categorized life, death but it's a choice you make and it's a choice to focus your mind and therefore focus on life and you think life, death it's like is your whole orientation towards one or the other it's what guides your thinking alright John also the writer basically ignores the fundamentals of the actual idea itself and promotes pragmatism through Donnie and then they even ad hominem the guy who came up with the philosophy by making him a child predator that sounds horrible sounds really really bad sounds really horrible Michael is AI responsible for these good economic numbers to some extent not hugely yet but to some extent a lot of capital flowing into it a lot of jobs being created a lot of very high wages very high wages in the AI space right now that's the thing if you want to have a high paying job and going into school right now computer science and AI you make a lot of money so I don't think it's AI yet that's affecting this AI will have a much greater effect longer term Bre, landlords should claim the squatters rights laws are a de facto eminent domain taking they should sue the parties and state and to buy the properties force the state to buy the properties that makes sense the bottom line is I think they need to take this to Supreme Court they need to challenge these squatter laws I think there are a number of these legal you know these legal non-profits that sue over these kind of things I'm hoping they sue over these laws and they go to the Supreme Court and these laws get overturned as a significant violation as they are of property rights Frank says what do you do if you find squatter in your condo hire some thugs you know to get them out of there I mean if the police won't do it it's hard in a condo because you have security below it's harder it's one of the advantages of living in a condo Joel you missed my early super chat on Japanese economy I was talking about a world where the Japanese bubble never burst and their economy kept booming and surpassed this economy yeah I answered that right and I said that that would be a win-win for everybody there's no losers if that happens that is the idea that the bubble doesn't burst and that the Japanese economy surpasses let's say the US economy by the year 2000 that's good how is that bad in any respect that is good for the would have been good for the Chinese economy to have one more robust thriving marketplace right so I want every country in the world out there to have a thriving economy that can surpass the United States economy that is good for everybody we do not live in a zero sum world it's all a it's ads right so there's nothing wrong with the Japanese economy becoming bigger and surpassing this economy you know whether that is possible with the shrinking population over the long run is questionable but by the year 2000 maybe they would have surpassed the US and then they might have faded a little bit but yeah that would have been great if the bubble had never burst or if they'd never been a bubble to begin with let's say they'd never been a bubble and the economy kept booming then again that's all good Thomas hey Ron what's the difference between objectivism and hedonism I feel non-objectivists often describe objectivism hedonism well huge difference hedonism is basically focused on momentary short-term pleasure focusing on emotion objectivism is focused on reason it's focused on rational values it's focused on identifying your rational long-term values the values that will make your life better over the long run that might even involve very hard times right now it might involve working really really hard it might even involve some pain for example while you exercise and so it's not an issue of momentary or short-term pleasure it is an issue in objectivism of what is truly good for you over the long run recognizing and this is another big big big difference with hedonism recognizing the fact that you are a conceptual being you're being of reason and therefore when you think about what's good for a human being it's not just what's good for a human being materially but what's good for a human being as a conceptual being as a thinking being and that is something that the hedonist evade completely alright this will be the last question daniel snuck in a question but I really have to go daniel says I agree the masculinity femininity stem from man's efficacy in engaging with reality, rational animal do you think modern conceptions of each prega, manusphere, feminism result from Housseau and Marx ideas I definitely think Housseau has a huge impact the naked savage and that whole perspective I think I mean Marx in the sense that he's a materialist yes because you know he divorces he divorces from the mind and a lot of people if you're a materialist and muscle play a big role, men have more muscles than women so that's the fundamental difference and there's a lot of other bad philosophy out there that basically influences and impacts the way we view masculinity femininity but if you understand fundamentally man is a man of of the mind and therefore reason and then acting based on reason then that is how you have to perceive masculinity femininity as different ways in which that gets manifested and you know I don't think I don't think given that that philosophy is new I think that that is a that is going to take time for that kind of conception but it is going to be interesting because as as economy becomes more mind dependent we're going to have to adjust our masculinity femininity ideas about masculinity femininity to take that into account to be successful in the physical world out there is to be a thinker this is the whole revenge of the nerds the whole revenge of the nerd phenomena that is Silicon Valley here are incredibly successful men primarily men who are not masculine in the traditional physical sense but masculine in a sense of mastering their environment primarily using their minds in order to do it alright guys a lot more to say I'm sure about that we will over the months, years to come alright thank you everybody really appreciate the support I'm going to try to do a show tomorrow on Sunday and in Monday but I don't know right I don't know time wise when and I don't know exactly if I'm going to be able to tomorrow is a pretty busy day at the conference I'll have to leave the conference in the middle of the day to do this I might do that because some of the sessions in Spanish so I might just come and do that during the day but I might not be able to but anyway I will let you know I'll try to give you as much heads up thank you for so many people being on today thank you for the super chatters I know this is not exactly a convenient hour for you guys I'm amazed at how almost no matter what time of day I do the show you guys show up I really appreciate it and tomorrow I'll tell you more about the conference and of course on Sunday hopefully I'll be able to tell you about Millet and Millet's appearance assuming he's coming alright talk to you soon hopefully tomorrow


Hello, welcome to this week's CMC Markets Commodity Snapshot with myself Jasper Lawler. This comes the day after an epic ECB meeting in which they've announced quantitative easing finally after being talking about it for what is now years. So what we again want to have a look at is possibly the most influenced commodity by this and that's gold. Jasper wanted to do a quick recap on the sugar and coffee outlooks that we had on a previous snapshot. Now first taking a look at the sugar chart. This again is that daily sugar chart we were looking at. We were just basically going off this strong push higher from the previous multi-year low. And what you can see is that we have had a good rally from that. We're now running into this 200 day moving average. It does coincide with some peaks that we saw, a sort of trading range that we saw towards the end of August. So this especially in combination with that shooting star candlestick is a possible area to look at lightening up a little bit on this trade. There could be further to go but we're looking pretty overextended on the RSI. We're cutting into a couple of resistances through the price action. The coffee chart as you see is a bit of a more interesting one in a way because the move played out. We ran straight into that support area that we'd been mentioning around 180 as in those lows that we'd seen from November. And that corresponded roughly with the 200 day moving average. And basically prices just collapsed right from there and we're right back where we started. And this is an interesting one, quite where you would end up on this trade where you two have entered it. It just highlights the difference between analyzing a chart setup and actually placing the trade and triggering it. Because exactly where you entered here beyond this downsloping trend line would very much determine whether you would have wanted to take in your profits of 180 or not or whether you were looking for higher prices. So obviously the lower down you are, the lower risk you're taking, the more happy you are to take profits of 180. The higher you've brought up, 180 may just not be enough profits and you would have been looking for more and would not have been able to take them as of yet. So now we sit back at 157. It's another potential entry. But we should probably wait for a slightly more bullish move off that level as confirmation. It's looking like we could in fact break that level given the couple of tests that we've had. A support below could be in and around 142. Now back to gold. Gold was obviously what we looked at in last week's commodity snapshot. We've seen a continuing run higher from that inverse head and shoulders setup that we're looking at. And it does correlate to the story that we were talking about along the lines of the Swiss National Bank and why they reneged on their peg against the euro. It was because of what we thought was an upcoming QE program that was announced yesterday bigger than many expected. 60 billion euros are essentially going to be printed each month and that's going to do value the euro. And as such, people are going to want to move into more stable stores of value like gold. And that's the reason we've seen gold as of yesterday crash through the 1,300 barrier. It's a big psychological level so we could see some correction from there. Let's have a quick look at the chart. So chart very much left as it was in the last week's update. As you can see, we've run higher from where we were last time. And we're just at this previous peak from September and that 1,300 level. We could see a bit more of a pullback, but to be honest, we've already had a kind of doji-ish candle stick and then pulled higher from that. So corrections may not be too deep on this one. Gold does tend to move sideways and then rapidly in one direction or the other. So this 1,340 that we've been looking at as the full 100% extension of this inverse head and shoulders could be on sooner than we think. Now just to highlight exactly the correlation that we're talking about here and why we think gold could be a possibility for 1,340, perhaps even higher prices, given that this ETB QE program has now been announced. I want to show you a chart that we've actually shown in CNC markets before. It's basically a chart correlating the ECB balance sheet and the Fed balance sheet and the price of gold. So this chart's pretty clear cut. You can see there's the Fed balance sheet, which expanded massively with QE Unlimited, which was only just wound down in November. This chart is a bit out of date, but you can see the general principle here that we're trying to put across is that the Fed massively expanded their balance sheet. It's basically flat around that for 500 as we've got it in set in billions. But the ECB balance sheet contracted and that correlated nicely with the decline in gold that we saw. Now that the ECB are expanding their balance sheet again, if this correlation is to hold, as the ECB balance sheet goes higher, as should gold. That's it for this week's CMC Markets Commodity Snapshot. We're of course looking at gold and the QE has been announced. We're off to the races now, so let's see if this correlation can still hold up.


In Delta State, the governor, Senator Ifai Okowa, has said his administration has provided a judiciary in the state's right tools, including personnel and environment conducive for ease of dispensation of justice. Okowa made a statement while swearing in justice. Catherine Odubana, Orishadere, has acting president of Delta State Customary Court of Appeal, Asaba. Correspondents, Acpo Major Friday, reported that Governor Okowa assured that his administration would also continue to promote the growth and development of native laws and customs in the state. The Redouble Air Force and continue to be a good example of hard work, transparency, accountability, fairness and justice. There is a saying that the reward for hard work is no work. This is a challenge posed by a new office. Emory and traits, a point I stress to your princess so that this office will further strengthen your resourcefulness, challenge your intellect, tax your patience, encroach on your time and test your value system. Hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.