The following is a presentation of TFNN. At TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour. Every trading day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now, toll free at<PHONE_NUMBER> or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The TFNN Bull Bear Trading Hour. Now, Tommy Ants, Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, appreciating your growl and prowl with us out here. We have got our investors up 34. Nasdaq's down 24. S&P's off 6. Gold contract down $6. Trading at $15.34 an ounce. We've got Silver off 8 cents. $18.54 an ounce. Light sweet crude, really getting smoked here. Right. Down a buck. $65.68 a barrel. Notes and bonds. You get the 10-year down 6 ticks. $130.17 a 30-year off 11 at $162.25 an king dollar. King dollar up $398 ticks. Trading at $98.735. The euros at $109. The yen is at $107.52 and the pound is at $123 to $1 U.S. dollar. Our phone number is<PHONE_NUMBER>. It was called folks. Inside the Dow Industries, Nike. Nike hit it out of the park last night. No doubt. And I believe that... One more. They're not quite an index yet. No. I pulled up the Nikkei. Yeah. Okay. So Nike out here. We are trading. Where are we at? Ooh. $9175. All-time highs. Up $454. Look at that number, man. Huge. That's pretty intense. It sure is. And so the number on it... You know, what's so intriguing about this in Nike folks, okay, is that, you know, you have tariffs, but bottom line, there's such a... Yeah, let me pull this. Because if we break down the segments, you're going to see that they're a worldwide company. So it's just not the United States they make their money on. Okay. I believe they got it broken down. They don't have it broken down here. But this... I'm sure you're correct. Yeah. It's a worldwide... They sell Jordans everywhere, right? Everywhere. Everywhere. And the NBA is enormous over in China. Yeah. And the NBA really has going for them on a world scale that their athletes really are. And that would translate to Nike. No doubt. Yeah. If we go take a look at the Dow industrials, what you're going to see is that Nike, I suspect, is the one that's holding the Dow up right now. The... Oh, Bowling too. Yeah. Nike 32 points positive. Bowling 26. Apple 10. Yeah, Apple as well. No doubt. We are definitely going to have action out here today. Yeah. Yesterday a little political turmoil, right? Yeah. Whether it's correct for the market to react to, you know, the proceedings of impeachment, whatever that means, right? Right. I mean, there's a lot of what it doesn't even exactly mean happened yesterday and the market reacted for sure. Yeah. And then you just have, as we came on the air, the transcript of the call between the president and the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, being released. And I'm sure we're going to be catching headlines and whether that will matter or not, that's for you to decide in the market. We'll find out, man. We will. But it's coming out. So let's see. This is... So the transcript got released, okay? Yes. So President Trump asked the president of Ukraine to work with his personal lawyer and the U.S. Attorney General, William Bott, to look into his political rival, Joe Biden, according to a rough transcript of the call between the two leaders. Yeah. So we'll find out where the rest of this is going to go. What is pretty wild, folks, is that if you follow this, well, we're all following this, okay? The ironic part to me is that I said to Tommy, I was going to send him this this morning, is that it was the Wall Street Journal that broke this story. And so the Wall Street Journal right is, the ones that bottom line came up with the deal that the president eight times, you know... There's probably the whistleblower one that started it all, wasn't it, maybe? It might have been. I think there was a whistleblower story about it. Either way, as it broke, sure. The Wall Street Journal is the one that broke it, right? So this morning inside the Wall Street Journal, inside the editorial, folks, it has that Trump, he just had a misjudgment. And so to me, it's ironic, because you get the Wall Street Journal is owned by Fox. And it's just going to be ironic. By Rupert Merritt. Yeah. So that it's like, okay, you opened the Pandora's Box. Yeah. And I ain't trying to pull it back. You have news and you have editorial and opinion, right? I mean, that's what happens. It's got to be wild. I just, I happen to, in here as well, interesting either way. Trump also asked Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, to investigate whether his country could locate a hacked Democratic National Committee computer server that became an issue in the 2016 campaign against Clinton. So he also wants the president to find Clinton's server.  Trump mentioned Biden several times during the call, described allegations as Vice President. Biden had pushed to oust Ukraine's top prosecutor, tell a company his son was working for claims that had been widely discredited. So we'll see.  Right. And you have Congress going on a break, though, I believe, this Friday for two weeks. Really? Yeah. That could have changed with yesterday afternoon. But they, yeah, I know. That's, yeah. Oh, man. Sick. Yeah. Let's go take a look at the bond market out here. So, oh, okay. So let's look at the bond market first. Okay. So this is what is happening, folks, also in the repo market, right? The Fed. So yesterday bonds go top side, have volume behind the move. You've got a sideways move out here today. You've done 656,000 contracts. Yesterday, yeah, we did 1.6 million. That's telling me bonds still want to go to highs. So on the repo market, what is going on in the repo market is that the Fed has put, they changed this yesterday from, not changed it, they added, from an overnight market, now they give them banks money for two weeks. Okay. And what this is setting up, folks, is this, is that it's setting up the aspect that the next squeeze is going to be at the end of this month. Okay. And so what they're trying to do is push as much money into the banking system as they can. And what also happened is that the Fed came out and said, okay, I believe whether it's brought in a 50 billion. But then the banks came in saying we want 100 billion. So they basically pushed it out. Yeah. They pushed out as much. So you're going to keep hearing about this, okay? And these little tweaks that are happening out here, I think it's important to keep your head wrapped around it because it is saying that the banks have more collateral than they have cash. And that's a liquidity event. Right. And just if we bring it home to all of us, right? Pitch it as, you know, you hear this many times. You can own, let's pitch it, you can get it on a huge amount of real estate, okay? And then if you don't have any cash to take care of the real estate, it's a problem. You need both. Yes.  And then, because also what ends up happening is that that would be a hard asset that's hard to sell. Yes. Illiquid. Illiquid, okay. So that's what you have happening. And the thing that's amazing is that what we're talking about here, what they have that is still a treasuries. You know, you're talking about something that does not supposed to be hard to move. Very liquid, yeah. So the bottom line is that they're going to be pushing more into the marketplace. Gold. Let's go to the gold contract. Take a look at gold. Gold's backing down. Oh, we're going to look at oil, too, because I want to see what happens. Oil must be filling that gap. Yeah. Oil, gold's sideways move. Down to six bucks. That's a sideways move. CLX. I think we're on the X contract. CLX. Yeah. Yeah. CLX. November, yeah. So 157. Yeah. There she goes. She's after that. Look at that thing, man. So the top is 5561. This always blows my mind. What? It hit 5562 so far. So the filling the gap is 5561. Sure. That would have been Friday when we closed on Friday. That was the high of Friday the 13th. Yeah. A week ago, Friday, before the attack on the Saudi oil field.  Sunday. And they go into 63. I wonder who was buying Sunday at six o'clock when those futures opened, because that tick was only one minute to five minutes long that it was up at 6375. Yeah. Stay right there, folks. We're coming right back. Our phone number is<PHONE_NUMBER>. Coming right back, folks. If you're not currently using the TAS Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The TAS Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. 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And what we did have out yesterday too, by the way, folks, is that you got another expansion with volume on the way down. So when that happens, your probability goes much higher that we're going to continue lower. If I show you this, if we take a look at this, how this was set up, you got to remember that you had option expiration on Friday and, you know, we got the... It came down, it came down with volume, 97 million. Then on Monday, you got under that with tremendously lighter volume, 47, and that's where it rejected lower price. What ended up happening yesterday? Yeah, you tried to get higher and then the market blows out to the downside. We did 97 million versus the 97 million of option expiration. So your probability is a lot higher than, guess what? The markets rolled. We'll see why this August 5th date shows up, but that's where I suspect we're going next. The free queue is what the queues did is actually break the trend line from the August 5th up, because we're going up since August 5th. In this particular case, you got both. You got a monster expansion of volume and you're going to see that you basically got a break of the trend that started out here on August 5th, which is 179, and you can see option expiration we had done 30 million. We rejected lower price the next day at 23 and then you blow it out yesterday with 41. And what happens here with the NDX, you can see you're in the lower range now. Once you get back inside that 189.68, it's going to be pretty wild watching this whole thing shake up. Oh, and then again, we work. Newman's gone. In fact, you know, the Smawni folks, there's a lot of things happening. Is there? Yeah. I mean, on the CEO front, we work's gone. Oh, man, I know, right? The CEO of eBay's gone. Right? Yeah. There's one other one. There might be, I know. You're right. And so it's going to be a trend. The Newman deal is pretty intense. It is. I don't know. I'm sure there'll be some great articles written about it because I want to find out how that struggle went. What happened? I thought he had 10 to 1 shares. I thought he had 21. He did. He gave him up. Yeah. That's what it said. It said he gave up. He gave up. He had 20 to 1. Right. He had 20 to 1 originally. And now it's going to be 3 to 1. Okay. They were trying to get him to 10 to 1. That was the first step. Now they get him to 3 to 1. Okay. And he is going to still have representation on the board that's going to be minority representation. Yeah. He's going to be the chief non-executive. Yeah. Non-executive chairman of the board. Exactly. Thank you. Right. And giving up. My take is it's all about, even he knows it, and Jamie Diamond is probably convinced of it. It's all about, hey, we've got to get this out to the public. We need their money. Yeah. We need this piece of paper. Right.  He always, Jamie Diamond already had it. It's a great story. Yeah. Not Jamie Diamond personally. Jamie Morgan. They've been a lot of banking relationships. Monster money. For loans. Loans against the shares. Loans against the shares. Yeah. He financed 500 million for when he sold the shares. So, and I'm thinking that they didn't say what the margin was, but I kind of picture he gave all the money. You know what I mean? So, let's say that you were. Newman. The CEO. Yes. And I want to buy the shares. So, what the bank did is put 500 million in a pot. And I suspect they probably made us pay half of the money up, like, you know, like a public market, 50% margin or something. I kind of picture that they did more than that. But you don't know it. The article didn't say that. Okay. But the article, you're not getting what I'm saying. You know, I'm not following what you're saying. What I'm getting what I'm saying. Didn't he, he took out a loan against his shares? Is that what he did? No, this is different. Okay. What are we talking about? Just start me from the scratch. He sold shares. He sold shares. Okay. Right. But when he sold the shares. Yes. JP Morgan was the bank. So, if I wanted to buy the shares. Yeah. They found a private buyer. No, no problem. Yes, right. Okay. I just don't know what the margin requirement was. Sure. You know what I mean? I'm figuring 50%, you know. But I might not be. For you to buy those shares. Yes. Yeah. Okay. Right. Yeah. Just like a public market. Sure. But maybe not. Maybe it's 25% or maybe it's 75%. So, are you saying they're wiped out with the person who bought them because of the loss of where they bought them at? And Jamie Diamond's on the hook because he's got, he, they owe him the money. They owe JP Morgan the money. Sure. So, if those shares collapsed below their price. Right, right. On the hook. Yes. Only for that one. Sure. Then he gave, then he gave Newman another 800 million. Okay. Yeah. There's so many of them. It's like, it's like, you know. So. It's good to see the market getting some corporate governance though, as opposed to just throwing out to the public. Yeah. You know, and realizing that, hey. There's no doubt. You know, we're just marking up a company at almost $50 billion. Right. With one man running the show. Right. And they have no idea how they're going to make money. And they're valuing themselves. Yeah. At a multiple that. We're going to find one of these places and go in it. And see what it looks like. We work, sure. I think they have one. Remember I said to you, I just saw scrolling in my Facebook feed in Tampa. Yeah. So I'm sure they do. I want to see. Tampa top 20 city. I want to see how this is done. Yeah. They have free coffee, man. Yeah. Free coffee, expensive real estate for small spaces. Right. So how about. Oil. Oil. Oil. Right. Okay. Okay. We have a minute on the Bloomberg left to give it a guess. We haven't given the chart a look. We'll do that right afterwards. But, you know, if you think oil is going to rise in price, you would be looking for less oil than they thought as in a bigger draw. If you thought maybe oil was going to go down in price, you'd be looking for a big surplus. Right. A gut. Looks like the survey numbers minus 400,000 barrels per week. Whisper number a little bit. Okay. Looks like the survey numbers minus 400,000 barrels per week. Whisper number a little bit lower minus 525. What are you going to do? Let's see. We're down about a buck 50 today, right? We're sitting there like 55 and change. So the question is, you want to play it to the downside or the upside? I'm figuring it's just filling the gap. Okay. Well, what does that mean in terms of up and down? That would mean it would probably get a little bounce. I was going to go bounce, too. So that means we're going to miss to the downside. Hopefully, if you were playing for a bounce, we're going to go minus 700 with 10 seconds to spare. Oh, cool. I see. Yeah. Maybe that gives it. No, that's going to be minus 700, maybe. There we go. You got it. We made it with two seconds. One, two seconds left. Good. Okay. Perfect. So we'll see what happens. Let's jump over to the chart now and see what we have. So here's the price accrued. Quite a drop today. We're looking at the November contract. We'll get this chart to the front. First up, a $57 man dropped almost $55.60. So I was taking a look at this over the break. I pulled up a couple of the volatility trades. Here's your 11 a.m. spreads. Again, we're at $55.85. These are going to have $55.75. Okay. Okay. So we're at 10 cents in the bullish position with intrinsic value. So there's your bullish spread. After a lot of volatility this morning, too. Interesting. Yeah. And we had to jump around to find, but 11s and 12s line up both with this price point. So we're going to have $55.75. You have a 10-cent start to the bullish side. Here's your bullish spread. It's going to cost you $25. You're getting into $56. The contracts are $55.83. The bearish spread, just the premium. Your mindset and the intrinsic value. So you're looking at about $44.45 represents $44.45 away from $55.83. Excuse me, $55.75, right? The noons, same exact price spreads. Here's your bullish one, $55.75. This time the bullish one is going to cost you $31 as opposed to $25. Right? So you're paying six pennies or $6 on each leg probably. $55.58 is where you're selling the 11. There you go. $8.55 is where you're selling the noon. So you're looking at $56.44. So you want to pay $0.44 for 11 a.m. or do you want to pay $0.56 in terms of how much movement you need for the noon? We'll see what happens. We've got three minutes. We've got a lot of movement already, man. Pretty wild. Yeah.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Let's call folks. And we're going to have that man, Teddy Cakes, that up at Fawty, past the hour. We're getting any action in currencies, man? That dollar index hit $100 yet? It's got some strength, man. It's got some strength, man. That was up $32.6.31. S&P's off eight. We'll come right back. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up-to-date on the day's trading action. Included in Market Insights are specific buy-and-sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs, and even options, with stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter at risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find Market Insights under Trading Newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. 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Let's see where we are with these oil contracts. Jumping back to the chart. We're looking at the contract. We'll pull it up. Oil trading $55.88. Not too much of a move? It's not a holiday, either. No, it's not, right? And let me zoom in a little bit as the market's digesting it. And why don't we jump back and maybe pull up the news? Maybe we'll get it at the top. There we go. Crude oil. Look at how much it rose. Oh, boy. Oil should come in at minus 700. This would be interesting. That's a plus 2.41 million barrels. Yeah, here we go. So it's just going to be perfect. Here's the whole breakdown. So crude for the week, plus 2.4 million barrels. Median estimate was minus 600. My estimate minus 700. Gasoline coming in with a build as well, $519,000 versus the estimate of a decrease of $564. Let's see. The distillate, look at the huge missing distillates, minus 3 million barrels almost. The estimate was only minus 4. Wow. And meanwhile you have cushion with plus 2.2. And I wonder how these crude imports minus 672 and so forth shaped that inventory number. Nonetheless, with that, you should have seen the price drop through the floor. And we haven't seen it at all. Either that or we're getting a bad quote. It looks real. It looks pretty legit. It's ticking, right? Look at that. $55.91 million. We've actually ticked up. So someone had the numbers this morning. We've actually ticked up five pennies. We'll have to check back in. I feel like that's one of them that the market might be laying calm. And if we go over and take a look at the S&P, the S&P got a little pop on that. I don't know if it's exactly that, but simultaneously. It does up 90 at this point. S&P almost flat. Yeah. We hit the low when the transcript was released. They have a spike low at 10 on the dot. Yeah. Now, this is what's pretty cool here, folks. See, this spike low has volume. So to me, that's going to get tested. And we'll see how this shakes out today. But that's saying it wants to get back down to that $29.53. Yeah. And we're $29.69. We're only down to a point right now. Let's go take a look at some of the higher volume equities and see what they're moving around out here in the market in general. Maybe Nike with some action number three. Well, there we go. Yeah. Yeah, Nike's up four. That's accelerating more, too. Yeah, 9207. That's up 489. That's 92.79 or something, man. Just pretty cool. Mammoth, yeah. Advanced micros down 63. The chips got hit yesterday, too. Roco's getting a little bounce up $1.57 about time. Yeah. Apple up 168. Not bad. And you get Slack down 149. Marathon petroleum. That's Elliott's. I was going to say, yeah. On the day that oil is down $1.50. And you get a hedge fund. Yeah. That's going after it. Facebook. So Facebook. I came down yesterday, too. So, yeah, you got a little juice on Facebook, yeah. The story yesterday, right, was people were not even corroborating, but being interviewed by the FTC and so forth when we were in that story. Okay. It was that Monday. I think it was yesterday. Either way, from Monday we're down from 190 to under 179. Yeah. I mean, look at it. Friday, man. We're straight in at 193. We're 179. $14 haircut on Facebook from Friday afternoon to Wednesday morning. I'm telling you, man. That is some volatility, man. Oh, and here. That's because Amazon got hit pretty good yesterday. So if we pull up Amazon, what you're going to see, I believe Amazon actually broke the consolidation it was in. It was going up to the bottom of it. Yeah, it broke it. Okay. Bargains all over the place, man. So Amazon went from 1795 to 1735. You broke the consolidation. Yeah. So this sets up, folks. Okay. Bottom line. Now you can see that. Oh, right there. That baby is sticking out with a sore thumb, man. That could be one day, man. 1672. Right. And just the same illustration, man. From Friday to we're at 1830. You're down almost $100 in the price of Amazon from Friday when we were at the... I know. Yeah. Mammoth. Mammoth numbers, man. Yeah. You go back three months. July 11th. 2000. 2035. 300 bucks on the dot, basically, off them. Right. We got to go to... Every 10 shares of Amazon, you lost $3,000. We got to go to Bitcoin. Bitcoin broke down. Heavy-duty... Is that break down? We're on the air afterwards. Afterwards. I think it was afterwards. Now, watch this, folks. This is a total... This is saying Bitcoin wants to go to $6,000. And I'm just... I'm not even taking the highs. Because when you break a consolidation, price-wise, you can take the bottom of it, which is $9,083, and then I just don't even took up here like $13,000. So that's four off nine. We'll take it to five, even. Five. Yeah. I mean, if you did take... And you take the whole thing... If you took like that area, which we might be able to say is $3,000, that's down to six. Right. And to put it in context, I mean, that's six. That's not all landish. No, no, it's not. You better believe it's in play when you just went from the high of $13,851 to $8,300. Yeah. You know, we've seen it go to... Is this going to bring it all the way back? You can, yes. Yeah. It'll be $19,000. Yeah. So, you know, you've got to keep in mind that we were just trading at $3,500. Right. In February. And you go to $14,000. Right. And let's see. What is... Where do we annotate? Perfect. I wanted to see what kind of retracement this is off of this run. Because it's been a heck of a run, man. So we're just under 50%. Now, 50% was at $85,42. Yeah. Yeah. You know, and if you hunt folks, they sad the addition of the journal. They had a great article on digital money in central banks. Okay. And what the article is about is that, going forward, these central banks are getting their heads wrapped around in a big way right now. I bet. Because of the Facebook deal. Oh, for sure. Because they know Facebook, they'll stop them. If you read this article, there's a million... Well, they have about seven big reasons in there that central bank has to stop them. I agree. I mean... But this was also happening, is that inside of that, you have the head of the U.K. Central Bank, Carney, which is really a smart guy. He had a speech to the United States and everyone else saying, hey, digital is the way that this is going to transfer the doll of being king. The doll has been king, evidently, since World War II, for sure. I think they said since 1920, though, the doll has been king. After World War II, for sure. And he's saying that what's going to happen is that if we got together on a worldly basis, we could spread that out and we could take that control away from the doll. And I just started thinking, I says, oh, my God, you know, the U.S. will fight that hand and fist. Sure. Because that's how all the controls are. Because whoever is controlling, the currency is controlling everything. The default currency of the world, sure. And listen to this number. This is amazing, folks. And this is one of the main reasons we control everything, is that 80% of all trade down all over the world, even if we're from two different countries, are done in dollar terms. Okay, yeah. We're done in dollar. 80%. Yeah. So that's why... It's the default currency world, you know? Commerce. Because if we're, whatever country you are in, and I'm in, you can't trust your own currency, at least you know that... It's the most stable currency. It's the most stable. Yeah, less volatility, most stability. All right, so... That way, you know, I heard you talking about Bitcoin and being able to use it yesterday afternoon, right? And saying, you know, if it moves, if Bitcoin moves quick and you pay for it, you use your Bitcoin to pay for something. Right.  Right. That's what people don't want to happen. No. If you're relying on a currency, if you're trading it, if you're investing in it. Different market. But that's why the dollar is... I suppose, you know. With that, the dollar's moving out here today. Yeah. It rejected lower price yesterday. Dow. Dow is up 82, Nasdaq's down 11, S&P's are off one and a half, Gold's down 9, 50, Silver's down 13 cents. We'll come right back. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the Tax Opportunity Zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. 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Teddy Keg snack. What's going on, brother? Oh, not too much. Cloudy day in Chicago but we have nice warm weather so it's kind of nice. That's a beautiful thing. No doubt. Well, you know, the weather broke here and I hope it stays this way. I think we have a little heat but at least at night we get some cool temps eventually. We get four or five degrees cooler the last of the five days. This is like heaven to us. Yes. It's boiled right now. I mean, we have like 60 degree weather at night and that's unheard of in September. That is, man. Because we're only getting 70, yeah. Hey, so currencies. Speaking of heat. We are.  Where are we going here? Well, right now we have an rallied a dollar index today and I think that's really what's going on today because after we spoke last week we had a night we were talking about how maybe we were coming to an inflection point with some divergence and some currencies and we got that signal. Right now things are reversing gears on a daily basis. Now, I know you like the the Yen. So let's talk about that first. So last week we reversed gears with the Japanese candlestick patterns cell signal and today the market turned back to the upside. So we set a nice low yesterday in the U.S. dollar Yen trade and overall it's been bullish for the past like basically month as we ended the summer. Now, we're heading into the end of the fourth quarter guys. So we have a lot of balancing that's going on and we're on the front of the fourth quarter. So I think right now what we have especially because this week there's really no big numbers. Tomorrow we have US GDP and between now and the close of Friday. Globally there's some speeches and some mediocre or whatever but there's really no economic numbers. The Royal Bank of New Zealand did not cut the rates. That was kind of interesting and I think that's because if you look at what's going on with the U.S. dollar we have currently we have a little rally going on but now we have the impeachment process that's starting for our president. You have in the UK Brexit deal you have parliament that came back and they got back online yesterday. So that's right. We thought that would be the big news for October. Now is that geopolitical geopolitics now are off the table because there's so much uncertainty. So how do you get direction when you have no leadership or question of leadership in the U.S. dollar no leadership or question of leadership or ability to move forward in the UK. The EU is still stalemated because no matter what nothing bodes well for them unless they can come to a deal by October 31st and they don't want to and I think that what we're actually looking at where we can look at the technicals. So I think that today is kind of like a bull trap going on with the U.S. dollar. I'd be very leery of it because you had the U.S. dollar yen that broke after we spoke last week and turned around to the British pound is still lower today even though it's coming off of its lows because of a strong dollar. I think the pound dollar is definitely right now going to continue to be a bear for a little bit and it's because we don't know if this is going to go on any longer. So you're getting a little lift I think in the dollar because of this so it's because of any real strength of numbers of the economy it's just kind of like a rebalancing because of this geopolitical upheaval that's going on. Hey, Teddy when you look at the yen right so the high of the yen And then so do you look at that, that we would have to get over the 10780 in order to basically say, go back to the highs. I know this, I'm getting in minutiae here, but I'm just curious in general, do you know what I mean? No, actually, you give it a good number because I have 10775 and 108 quarter as two key prices, if you will. So and definitely if we're back above, if we can sustain a trade above that 10775, that means that we probably, now remember, we're in an uptrend for the past month. Yes, yeah. We've just been back for the past couple of sessions. So if this is a corrective move, meaning we're looking for another bullish opportunity to buy into, today may be that day. And that means that we're probably gonna start to get above that first strike, okay? And then look for a challenge of 108 quarter. And if we get above 108 quarter, well, then we're looking to make higher move highs. That means that this level was just, because this was a shallow retracement too, right? Now I can see that. Yes, yes. So this is crucial actually where we are today because, you know, what happened not yesterday, but the day before that, the yen, no, I guess it was yesterday. I mean, that yen sold off hard yesterday. When we were old. Yes, it's been. It counted those new lows, absolutely. Right, okay, okay. Now this could be a trap now. Now remember. No, I'm with you. That's my, yeah. It's pretty cool how it's set up actually, yeah. Right, so all your weak shorts, I think they're going to panic right at that 108 quarter, you know, and all of your weak longs are going to start to jump in now with this. If they're bullish looking for higher move highs, but if they fail and we come back and take out yesterday's low, well, then that's a whole, well then everything's off the table. And I think that the major trend, which is still down for the US dollar yen, we might be heading into fourth quarter where the big trend is going to say, hey, the bear is back. Yes. And this, as you said at the beginning, this is where the funding aspect that everything comes in at the end of the quarter too. You know what I mean? Right, right. And we had the BoJ met last week and they did nothing. Right. So, you know, and that's a big deal because now the BoJ did nothing. The Royal Bank of New Zealand did nothing this week. And by November, they were supposed to cut the rates three times and they've only done it once. You know, so that's a big deal. Well, when we look at the euro, I mean this euro, what is it going to take for this euro to get out? I mean, it looks like it just wants to go lower and lower, right? Right. Absolutely. Well, I think that we're coming into that critical support area of 109.5 down to 108.5. Yeah. No matter what, no matter how bad the economy is, bombs going off, oil, I don't care. You know, we've seen this bad movie before. It just seems to bounce all the time. Yeah. You're right. But there's also no reason to be a bull. I think that the Brexit is a drag going into October 31st. And if you look at the ranges, the euro has been a tough trade all summer long. I mean, it's been, you know, a half a, I've been trading the euro since the, with the D-Mart tour became the euro, you know? Okay.  I mean, you're lucky with all kinds of major news, pound yen or swimming and making new highs and new lows and the euro is sitting there in a 45 pit range. Even if it's a top, a low or higher high a little bit on a couple of daily basis, it doesn't do anything.  It's one of my favorite markets to trade. And I've had the toughest time trading it for months. I just wait for signals like we had last week, which there have been, you know, only a few over the course of the past few months. And what Teddy's saying there, the reason folks is that when you have a much smaller spread, you know, guess what? You know, you're trying to get close to the top, trace to the bottom while feeling at 45 ticks, man. I mean, it's a problem. You know what I mean? Yeah, your risk-reward ratio is out the window. Right. Yeah. I mean, the exchanges in the brokerage houses are happy because they're making money no matter what. Bucky always gets paid. Right, the spread, oh my God. Sometimes, Tommy has a percentage on the spread sometimes that's like insane. Yes. When you really do the numbers, it's like, oh my God. Yeah. You know, would you buy it at that price? Would you sell it? They make both. Yeah, exactly. Folks, you can reach Teddy every trading day with 4X, that's trading.com and 4X, that's trading.com. Teddy, have a great week, safe week. We look forward to speaking the next Wednesday. Take care, guys. See you next week. Thanks, Teddy. Stay right there, folks. I'm sure you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. 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Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion, while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basil found that computer software, which included the standard market technical indicators, enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns, as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion, each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfnn.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Folks, Dow, check it out. What's going on? Up a buck, 67, 167, Nasdaq, up seven S&Ps, up five, and gold's down $17. Quite a pop, man. And just checking back on oil, actually getting a little bit of a pop, up $56.20 right now, which is remarkable. Two million plus build. Right. And the estimate was a decline of about 600,000 barrels and oil trades to 56.20, about 40 cents about from where we were trading at. But yeah, checking out those indices, man. Green across the board and gold pulling back pretty remarkable. No doubt. Can I just jump to the metals? Because gold, I'm sure silver's reacting in the same. Doll is up 603 ticks. And we got some action and rates as well, I'm sure. So you got gold, silver pulling back, same deal. And let's pull up a chart of that. And you can expect this all to continue all day, folks. That's the bottom line. These are news-driven events. The news out here was that Trump just said that you could expect a deal sooner rather than later be surprised in China. Believe that, folks, and good luck here. That's going to be going on for a long period of time. Sure. Yeah, here, Trump says China deal could happen sooner than you think. What number are we looking at, if you're... That's all that's... Ah, okay. Yeah. There we go. Yeah. Nice pop, though. That'll do it. That'll do it. This is a very tough market if you're trading as those S&Ps. Well, it's... You can't... No matter how good of a trader you are, you don't know when the next tweet, when the next impeachment announcement, when the next... When you're going up or down one of the 20 points of the pop. Meaning, you know... Oh, and I say you can't predict the news, right? But what you can do is you can say that volatility maybe isn't priced into the market. And let's finish it up with the VIX real quick, because the VIX will be getting a little spike, 1845 this morning, the market pricing correctly. That guess what? We're not sure either what the heck is about to happen. Right, no doubt. Stay right there, folks. I think it's going to come out next on Basil Trapman. Steve Rose, Dave White, I'll be back this afternoon. Thanks, guys. Thanks, man. Yeah! Go get them, folks.


Welcome to this class on power electronics and distributed generation. There are set of students in the recording room for this class. Also, this is being recorded for saving to the internet. So, welcome to all of you. In this course, we will be looking at distributed generation and in particular power electronics concepts which are important for distributed generation. Power electronics is a wide area and it covers a large number of segments. A very wide spread segment is DC to DC converters such as switch mode power supplies which are used in computer power supplies, household equipment, wide range of applications. Then you have inverters which are extensively used in industrial applications especially motor drives. Then you have power quality equipment. A very common power quality equipment that is used is a UPS to ensure that you have power availability even when there is some disturbance in the grid. Also, you have harmonic filters, you have compensators to compensate wars, compensate harmonics to adjust your voltage in the presence of sags, swells, etcetera. These are all power quality related segments for power electronics. At the very high power level, you have HVDC which is high voltage DC systems, flexible AC transmission systems which are used at the very high power level. Then, emerging area which is gaining increasing importance is distributed generation where the power converter or any converter in general is used as a interface between your energy source and the grid. So, you can have power converters, you can have machine based interfaces and in general you could call it a power conditioner which is used to interconnect a distributed generation unit with the electrical grid. There are many other applications of power electronics in high voltage pollution control, plasma generation, many applications in medical imaging. Focus of this course will be on the distributed generation and the issues of connecting the distributed generation unit with the electric grid. If you look at the structure of the course, there will be three parts to the course. The first part is looking at the power system related issues specifically relating to the distribution system. We will address the issue of why we need to look at the distribution system closely. The many issues on a steady state basis, how large a distributed generation source can be connected with the distribution system. Also, transients such as a big transient is when a fault occurs on the distribution system and how would your distributed generation source behave in the presence of such transients. What is the strategy to deal with protection especially when you have faults and one thing that can happen when you have additional sources in the distribution system is that you have the potential to form an island. If you look at the traditional distribution system, the source is essentially the grid coming from the substation, coming to the feeder and you have a feeder coming from the substation to the individual loads. There might be distribution transformers coming to residential areas, commercial areas, industrial areas and you are looking at how to interface such systems with the electric grid and we need to understand the distribution system related issues. The second part of the course, we will look at the issue of comparison and benchmarking and the reason this is important is you can have a wide variety of distributed generation sources, you can have wide variety of interconnection systems, power electronic circuits, different circuits which can do the interconnection and the question is are the type of systems that you are considering, is it actually improving the situation or are you going backwards. So, it is important to come up with a way of quantifying how good your interconnection system is to make sure that you are going in the right direction and so it becomes important to actually come up with a method to evaluate the value of what you are doing and then make a decision is this change that you are making taking you in the right direction and this becomes an important issue where often you have to compare the distributed generation source with the traditional electric grid and the question is is it giving you something better or are you going in a direction where things are getting worse. The third part of the course is related to the power electronic design issues where we look at the power electronic circuits for distributed generation applications, we look at single phase, three phase, different topologies, the basics of the topologies and the components that go into a typical power electronic circuit and the components that would go in a typical power electronic circuit. They are essentially inductors, capacitors and switches. You would not intentionally put a resistor in a power electronic circuit because it is a dissipative source. So, the question is what sort of inductors, what sort of capacitors, how do you rate them, how do you size them, what sort of semiconductors, how do you rate them and size them should go into such an equipment. There are implications of the selection in terms of both efficiency and reliability and ideally there is no loss in an inductor, capacitor or switch, but you always have non idealities in a practical circuit. So, in a practical circuit you will have losses and the implications of loss, one is you lose the generated power that you are generating in your generation source in loss and you have poor efficiency that is one impact. The second impact typically is you have more loss, it means that you need more thermal management and your components can get hot which can have reliability implications. So, the ascetics of the power converter component selection has implications in terms of both reliability and efficiency and that has to be considered when you actually do the design. So, that you are taking the overall picture into mind rather than just does this component work. Then we will also to some limited extent look at modeling and control related issues of such a system. .. So, the typical background required for the course at IAC over here we have students who come in for a masters degree or for research degrees. They would have already done courses in power electronics, they would have had courses in power systems. So, a introductory level you would have a power electronics course, you would have power systems course which gives you some exposure to distribution systems. You would have done courses on switch mode power electronics, you would have done courses which help model motors. So, you would have courses on motor drives and the idea of this particular course is to take in aspects of power electronics, some amount of machines and power systems and look at the issues when you actually interconnect a distributed generation source with the grid. Also at IAC we have courses on details of the power converter such as how do you modulate the power converter. You also have courses on advanced drives where you look at details about control related modeling issues. So, the idea is at this particular point the student can look at research related issues or some particular topic which you may want to investigate in detail and hopefully this background will give you the necessary tool to actually go in the direction of looking at power electronics and distributed generation. So, we talked about three aspects of this course. So, the first aspect was power systems related and as we mentioned the fault is a severe transient and you need to actually deal with a fault in a power in a distributed generation system. And one of the basic requirement would be that you have the existing distribution system with its protection philosophy and you do not want to modify the existing protection system when you add in the distributed generation source. So, suppose you have to rewire the whole distribution feeder when you connect your solar inverter that would bring in a big cost to the overall society just because a person wants to add a distributed generation source. So, you want your source to work in tandem with the existing system and you do not want to modify the existing system when you introduce the new sources. Some of the background that you would use when you look at say for example, fault studies is you would typically do a per unit analysis to actually evaluate what the fault levels are, what the voltages and currents in the system are. So, this would be something that you would have from your power systems background. You also make use of symmetrical components extensively to analyze faults, very common fault is a single phase fault. So, such methods can be useful when you are analyzing distributed generation system and its impact on the existing system. Then another important scenario is when you have an additional source in addition to the main grid which is which represents the feeder coming in from the substation. If the feeder gets open for some reason may be upstream breaker is opened then you have to consider what happens to the protection system. If now a new source is actually holding up portion of the feeder as an island will the protection that was envisaged with to work with the original substation based protection would it still work when you are operating as a island. So, these are some of the concerns that traditional utility engineers have when people want to connect distributed generation sources will the existing method of working will it be severely impacted by adding the distributed generation unit. So, if you look at the structure of the power system people like to talk about a distributed generation as something similar to the old centralized computers versus the newer network of computers to some extent that comparison might be valid. If you look at the overall power system if you look at the sources in the traditional power system they are shown as the generators over at the very top then you connect the generators to the a meshed transmission system where you have power flows which can be bi-directional from one side to the other side. You also have sub transmission systems which might be at a lower voltage level compared to the main power grid which then connects to distribution systems and traditionally you did not have the distributed generators connected to the distribution feeders and the power flow from your distribution on your distribution system from the distribution transformer onwards was unidirectional. But, now when you have a DG source connected you are looking at the potential for bi-directional power flow even on your radial system distribution systems and this has implications. If you look at the voltages and the role of power electronics at the different levels of such a system you have at the traditional generator you might have the generators operating at 11 k v may be 20 k v and you step it up to the transmission level with a step up transformer. The role of power electronics at this level might be in the exciters of large synchronous generators there might be some power electronics in the in the governor systems. But it is not a major player at this particular point in the generator if you look at the transmission systems the voltages are quite high you are talking about 400 k v and when people talk about ultra high voltage you are talking about 1200 k v etcetera. And at this level you have HVDC systems fax systems which use very high power power electronics. Your sub transmission system is at a slightly lower voltage and even in this particular level you the role of power electronics would be in HVDC and fax at different voltage levels. When you look at the distribution traditionally distribution is 11 k v can also be at 33 k v level and when it comes down to the consumption point it is typically 415 volts 3 phase or 230 volts single phase. So, the traditional role of power electronics has been in loads beta switch mode power supply motor drive at the load level at the consumption point. But when you are talking about distributed generation you are talking about potentially connecting it at the consumption level or at the distribution level. So, this is essentially the range of areas where people are looking at distributed generation solutions. So, if you look at the way of interconnecting distributed generation systems. So, people talk about now having a network of sources connected at the close to the loads. One thing when you have a computer network the constraints is constraint is on the flow of information and the limits on those constraints are quite challenging. But if you look at the constraints that govern the connection of distributed generation sources it is not just the information required to control the source. You also have the physical circuit loss which govern the power flow you have the thermal management required to allow the power to actually come through. So, you have a lot more physical constraints in the network of energy sources. So, I would say even though people talk about the analogy it is actually much tougher problem when you are looking at a network of energy sources and still at the stage of infancy compared to the mature level that the network of information systems are at today. The concept of unidirectional versus bidirectional power flow has a quite a lot of implications. Just again on the previous slide I just want to point out just because you have a lot of people associate distributed generation with solar energy or wind energy. But that is not necessarily true all the time I mean if you look at large wind farms they might be even though the individual turbine might be rated at couple of megawatts the wind farm might be rated at 250 megawatts or 300 megawatts they would be connected to the sub transmission or the transmission level. So, the wind energy need not be distributed generation similarly if you look at some of the newer solar power plants they are rated at tens of megawatts especially at the larger range. So, they can be considered as more like centralized generation rather than distributed generation. So, when you are talking about the scope of DG systems you are talking about the power levels that are compatible with the distribution feeders or at the consumption point. And it is not about the type of source it is not about solar energy or renewable energy often if you can have a diesel generator sitting over here which is sending power to the load. And it is a non renewable fuel, but it is distributed generation because of the way in which it is connected and the fact that it is distributed in two ways one is it is connected at the distribution level or at the consumption level. The second thing is it is geographically distributed rather than being centralized in large individual point centralized power plants. So, it is good to have clarity on the difference between the type of source and whether it is distributed generation or not just because you have one variety of source it does not mean distributed generation. . So, if you look at the issue of power flow in typical distribution system you have simplicity of the system of the distribution system. And if you look at a mesh system where you have possibility of power coming in from multiple sources then you have a scenario where say you have two sources. Suppose you have a fault over here at the center of the line then to clear the fault you need to actually open say breaker one and breaker two to actually clear that fault. Because just opening one breaker is not sufficient you need to disconnect all the sources to actually clear the fault. If you look at the traditional distribution system you might have a breaker at CB3 and say you have a fault somewhere down on the feeder. And you have to open just one breaker and you can actually clear the fault on the feeder which means that there is actually a lot of simplicity over here the protection equipment is actually reduced by half in this particular case you need just one breaker compared to multiple breakers in the other scenario. And also as you proceed along this particular feeder the ratings reduce as you go further down the feeder as the loads are typically connected uniformly across the length of the feeder. So, the rating of something which is much closer over here would be higher the ratings that are towards the middle of the feeder would be lower. So, you have simplicity and cost reduction in a number of ways. So, if you now connect say a distributed generation source over here then you have this issue that now to clear a fault that you had on the on the DG system you have the issue that you had in this previous case where if you just open this breaker there is now the potential that this DG source would actually feed the fault. And then you have now the issue of being able to coordinate multiple DG source is not just one potential source every customer on the feeder might potentially connect DG. And you need to make sure that those sources get disconnected when the protection philosophy of the feeder has to actually kick in. So, these are some of the concerns of not just simplicity, but also the cost impact of trying to actually connect more sources into a distribution system. And so, you need to actually now bring in the DG such that you can have the existing distribution system. Because you cannot afford to put more protective devices or increase the cost of the existing feeder you have to actually operate the DG in such a manner that it should not interfere with the existing protection philosophy of the feeder. So, if you then look at the second aspect of what we will cover in this course it is related to the engineering economic aspects of connecting a distributed generation source. And if you look at last year or two years back though there were people like to provide lists of what are the grand challenges in facing humanity. And one challenge was actually not just saying let us have solar power happen, but to make it actually cost competitive. So, the big challenge is not just building a solar inverter there are actually thousands tens of thousands of solar inverters out there the challenge is actually to make it cheaper than coal which is actually a very cheaper source of power. So, if you can actually make solar energy lower cost. So, without actually thinking about what are the implications of your power electronics or the source changes or the way you are doing the interconnection. Unless you are able to boil it down to a cost you will not be able to address this issue of because the real challenge is at the how to actually roll in the cost. So, can it be done it can be done there are thousands of people who have already done it and the issue is can it be done in a cost effective manner. And you have a number of trade-offs in this particular consideration of cost if you look at a typical system if you want to make some component more efficient you typically end up paying a higher cost for it. If you look at an example of say a simple wire I mean if you have a wire of some particular cross sectional area of diameter say D. And you will have the resistance R 1 of a wire of diameter D 1. And so it is say R 1 ohms and D 1 is the cross sectional area of the wire.  So, if you double the diameter the area of cross section would go up by a factor of 4. So, your resistance would come down by a factor of 4. So, your handling the same level of current your power loss would come down by a factor of 4. But if you look at the cost of the copper that is used in that wire which is twice the diameter the volume has now gone up by a factor of 4.  So, if you look at the issue of cost versus losses you have a situation where if you look at some parameter may be the diameter. If you are willing to pay higher cost then your losses can come down. So, the question is how much additional cost are you willing to tolerate to bring the loss down to some particular level.  Whereas, over here you might not get much in terms of efficiency improvement, but your cost has is going up quite rapidly. So, you have to actually make a engineering decision what is appropriate even at the simple case of selecting a wire. And similar implications are there when you are selecting magnetic components where you are selecting capacitors, power semiconductors which is etcetera where there is a trade off between cost and the ratings of the confidence that you are selecting. And this is one factor that you need to keep in mind. So, just improving the efficiency forever will not take you in the right direction you have to ask yourself is this efficiency improvement being coming in at the appropriate cost. Not all situations of efficiency improvement is associated with increased cost you might have a situation where you get both increase in efficiency and a reduction in cost simultaneously. So, in that case it is a win-win situation you have to go for it. Suppose, you have a system where you have power being processed in power converter 1 and then it is being processed in power converter 2. And if by some simplicity of design you could actually merge it together and still retain the efficiency of processing it in multiple instead of processing it in multiple stages. Then you might be able to see whether you can actually get lower cost because you are eliminating one big component and simultaneously you are reducing the cost associated with a big component. So, you have situations where you definitely have to choose a design based on what would definitely give you benefit, but often in engineering you have situations like this where you are looking at a trade off between what additional amount you are willing to pay and what is the benefit you are getting out of it. Similarly, if you look at the issue of reliability if you want to get improved reliability you may want you may have to end up paying a higher cost. For example, if you are in the case of example about the wire that we just discussed if you have a situation where because of the increase losses in the narrow wire your wire temperature is high that higher temperature would lead to poorer reliability. So, if the higher temperature poorer reliability would mean that you would have higher failure rate and shorter mean times between repair etcetera. So, if you want to improve reliability you would then go in for thicker wire which means that you are paying a higher cost. So, if you look at again the trade off that can potentially happen in such a situation you are looking at say trade off such as some component parameter such as the diameter and on the one hand if you are looking at the if you are increasing the diameter your cost is going up, but your mean time between failures say 1 by lambda would actually come down because you are having a more reliable component. So, you also have this trade off between reliability and cost. So, if you are designing a par electronic component and you want it to last for so many years if you reduce the cost there is a chance that you would the component might fail before it reaches the desired lifetime and often in power generation systems you are talking about power plans with 20 or 30 years of life. So, can we meet the life of say for example, you build a dam you want it to last for 50 years or 100 years if you are talking about a nuclear power plant you are talking about 40 to 60 years. So, depending if you are looking at a wind turbine people are looking at wind turbines which can last for 20 to 30 years. So, if you look at solar panels solar panels can actually last for a long time the question is will the electronics that go along with the panel last for as long as the panel does. So, this issue of trade off between reliability and cost also exist and there may be other considerations too such as what is the weight or volume of a component for example, if you want to make something more compact or extremely light weight you may have to end up paying more and applications such as say transportation is a place where they place a lot of emphasis on volume and weight. For example, if you had a solar converter and you wanted to install it in your hostel and if the solar inverter was the size of a Almada you would say no I cannot enter my room when the solar inverter is so big whereas, if it is the size of may be a cell phone or a laptop then you do not mind having a panel outside your window because it is not taking much space similar I mean. So, you want to have there is a benefit of reducing your volume and weight for example, when you talk of application like transportation say aircraft or a satellite size and weight is extremely important.  So, they operate under tight constraints of size and volume and the implications of size and volume say on a power converter sitting in a aircraft or a satellite is it will cause more fuel consumption in the aircraft. So, there is actually a cost impact of size and weight which needs to be considered when you are designing your engineering system and you can see that you make a purchase decision based on say initial cost, but if you forget about efficiency or reliability or how what the size or weight is then you are not actually taking in the overall picture. So, you need to actually roll in the different aspects of design including efficiency, reliability, weight, transportation constraints, the reliability has implications on how often you do servicing. So, many of these things have to be rolled in to a single metric and then you make a comparison the design that you are doing is it heading in the right direction or not. So, the metric that you would use might give more weight age to say weight and volume may be in a aircraft application. It might give more weight age to efficiency and reliability and say application such as long duration industrial power systems. So, there can be different ways of weighing things then, but a methodology to actually bring this all together is important for any engineering design. The third part of the course is about the power electronic details. We will be looking at the characteristics of power converters, the topologies, the requirement of filtering the output of the power converter. You do not want your neighbor's computer to shut down every time your solar panel on the roof generates power. So, you want tight filtering and you want it to be compatible with the things that are there around you. So, we will look at filtering the way you modulate the switches, what is its impact on a common mode and a differential mode basis and we will look at things like how to select the DC bus. Often you use if you use a voltage source converter, you are talking about how to select the DC bus primarily the DC bus capacitors for such a power converter. How do you select the semiconductors? This has implications on not just the temperature of the semiconductor junction, but what is the cycle life of say a given package of the semiconductor. Also with any power converter, it is not just the main power circuit components. There is a lot of ancillary hardware. You have sensors, you have protection components in your power converter, you have your controllers. It may be small and low controllers or more sophisticated digital controllers. You have breakers and contactors that need to operate when you are running the power converter. You need to handle surges. You might have some surge protectors. You need to recharge your power circuit components and you also need to provide control power to your circuit boards that are there within your power converter. So, all these ancillary components are important for proper operation of the power converter. If you look at the control related aspects, to some extent we look at the switching and average models. Some of the important requirements are to be able to do things like face locking, how to control the current that is coming out of your distributed generation unit, how do you control the DC bus, how do you control the real and reactive power coming out of your power conditioning unit. So, these are issues that are control related which we will try to address to some extent. If you look at power quality related issues, one of the first question is how do you measure what is power quality. We will have some discussion about that and that is important to make a justification to add equipment which is addressing power quality issues such as UPS. You also have power quality is not just an issue from the customer side. So, a customer side power quality issue is there a power cut or a outage. Whereas, you can also have power quality from the provider side where a customer load is drawing a lot of harmonics or a customer load is highly unbalanced. So, it is a power quality issue which is impacting the provider. So, power quality is not just one sided issue it you have to look at it from both sides, from both the loads and the sources and ensure that overall the system is in good shape. You also have issues like flicker which comes up when you have periodic power injection into node. You have to deal with sags, swirls, surges in a real grid and you also have to look at what are the ranges of frequencies that you would need to operate and how to operate within that particular range appropriately. If you look at the issue of efficiency of the distributed generation versus the centralized generation, you can have a variety range of efficiency over here depending on the type of plant whether it is just boiler running a turbine or it is got different stages of which can help improve the efficiency or whether it is a natural gas power plant where you can have improved efficiency. You also have losses in transmission systems, losses in the distribution system and then finally, at the consumption point you are talking about overall power from the fuel to the actual energy that is delivered you are talking about something in the range of 20 to 40 percent. If you have a generator source which is sitting close to your point of consumption you can have if you are just providing the electrical energy output to your load then you could have similar levels of efficiency, but in addition to the electrical energy that is being provided to the load if you can make use of the waste heat in the load for some purpose then you can actually have better overall fuel to induce efficiency and such systems are typically called co-generation systems. The comparison of efficiency between the centralized and the distributed is not that straightforward for example, if you have a centralized system because it is a very large power source you can actually make use of generators with high performance components with better cooling etcetera to actually improve the efficiency at the large centralized generator making use of the economies of scale whereas, you may not be able to increase the cost of this generator to that extent. So, you have some advantages because of higher performance of systems and thermal management in the centralized method of generation, but if you are looking at it from a distance point of view you have definitely advantages for the distributed generation type of sources and making use of the waste heat at the point of consumption will actually give you a big boost in terms of increasing your overall efficiency. In fact, professor Amulia Reddy who used who set up the center for sustainable studies in IAC he had a acronym he used to call it defenders which is development focused end user oriented and service directed energy sources and such sources fit in more with the distributed generation paradigm. The idea is that say if you are providing say lighting solutions to a rural household there is definitely development there is possibly more work that person such a person can do and it provides a direct service. So, there are advantages to the distributed generation paradigm even when the some of the initial cost may appear to be higher and overall the fuel to load efficiency is a important aspect to be kept in mind when you are looking at or comparing these systems. Another aspect is about reliability when you are comparing the centralized approach versus the distributed approach the centralized power system is covers a much wider area. So, it is geographically more exposed to problems such as environmental or lightning rain pollution etcetera. So, you can have faults because of number of reasons such as this or your distribution systems might have trees that are close by which cause periodic faults you might have squirrels or birds coming and sitting in and you have situations such as that you have poor loads on your distribution systems. For example, in on a distribution feeder you might have may be a 100 distribution transformers and from each distribution transformer you might have many tens of loads. So, your and each consumption load might be a household or a commercial establishment and each household you might have tens or many tens of loads. So, if you are looking at the actual load connection to the physical distribution system it is a very large number. So, even if a load has a failure of once in 5 years if you have many thousands of loads these faults are occurring all the time and you need to be able to deal with that especially when it is spread out around large geographical manner. So, your transmission and distribution system traditionally is more exposed to the problems, but on the flip side you can make use of higher performance materials and components on a larger scale. You can have more sophisticated control and protection packages in the centralized system where it may be justified based on economies of scale. Whereas, in DG systems it is typically co-located with the load which means that it is less exposed to external disturbances. So, you can tune your reliability to match your load requirement rather than make it all very high or all very low. You can actually try to match the reliability requirement of the source with the load and often DG is also people use it as a backup system when you do not have power from the grid. So, overall if you look at from the efficiency perspective and from the reliability perspective what I believe is important is not that one method of addressing generation will solve all problems. It is a way in which you need to design your system such that both centralized and distributed generation they have to coexist. So, it is not that the centralized system would go away and you would have only distributed sources or you would never have distributed sources and everything is solved in a centralized manner. You need to have engineering architecture where both systems can actually coexist. So, if you look at the so we looked at it from a efficiency and reliability perspective. If you look at the typical upfront cost perspective scale actually favors centralized power plant where you have larger ratings of the centralized power plants whereas, the smaller ratings of the DG unit. So, you have benefits of efficiency economies of scale up to some extent. Once you go to very giant exercises then again you have problems, but when you are talking about typical DG and centralized systems you are talking about benefits of efficiencies of scale for the centralized systems. If you look at renewable DG systems like rooftop solar or combined heat and power systems they are of a lower rating typically may be for a household or commercial rating. So, you cannot use the level of sophistication or the advanced materials you may not be able to use hydrogen cooling for example, to cool the conductors of residential synchronous machine whereas, you could actually easily use that it is typically used in a large centralized generator. So, whether it is again as we mentioned the DG does not have to be always renewable it did not always be a centralized power I mean solar rooftop solar. It might be a small diesel generator that you have in your commercial establishment which is used as a generation source either as a backup or it might be used for some additional functionality depending on the type of interconnection or power conditioning device. So, again if you look at the economics of scale issue for each distributed generation system you need to actually duplicate control and protection. So, you have some impact over there, but it is becoming less important nowadays as you have sophisticated digital controllers which can handle not just the control of the DG unit, but also many aspects of the protection can be integrated into a single processor. So, you can actually have quite sophisticated protection and control methodologies even at lower power scales with the newer digital controllers. If you look at efficiency from the component efficiency point of view from the machine efficiency point of view you have advantages for the centralized power method of generation whereas, the overall efficiency especially if you are making use of waste heat you have advantage for the distributed type of solution. Again when you look at the reliability from the use of high performance materials or cooling you have advantages to the centralized power plant, but reliability is not just having high uptime, but if you look at reliability in terms of redundancy you have say for example, if one large generator in a power code plant or goes down you lose a large amount of generation whereas, if one turbine out of 250 turbines come down in a wind form you might lose 2 megawatts out of 250 megawatts. So, the redundancy actually gives you benefit in some of these methods. . So, if you look at the societal needs for distributed generation there are many issues which makes energy a pressing topic. It is a issue from the source side where you have concerns of resource depletion, you have concerns from the sink side after you make use of the energy how do you deal with things like carbon dioxide which is essentially addressing climate change issues. You also have issues of power quality is there energy at all in the first place I mean the there is a very big societal cost for of poor power quality or lack of electricity being available is actually a big cost. So, overall for this course we do not have a standard text book we will be looking at papers from journals we might make use of data sheets or technical reports from companies. You can make use of your power electronics or your power systems text book that you use in your undergrad or in your courses that you would have done in your first and second semester. The first couple of books one by professor David McKay and the second by M. R. Lovans they are actually more general reading you do not need to have much technical background to actually read these things may be your can ask your parents or relatives to also read that they may be able to comfortably read those books. So, this is similar in line to the smallest profitable similar to smallest beautiful paradigm that F. Schumacher used to had a book smallest beautiful. So, this is the overall introduction for the course in the next class we will look at specific distributed generation technologies and how power electronics has a important role in those technologies. Thank you.


seeing people judge you at the beginning, it's like, wow, why is he trying to do that? But at the end of the day, wow, why is he trying to do that? They will be inspired by the attempt, but they haven't seen you climb the whole mountain. They're only seeing all the steps you take connect that this step you're on right now is the same as landing and achieving that thing that's never been done before.


What is the one thing your suit definitely needs? Not a tie, not a pocket square, not the right shoes. I mean, you do need all those things, but the one thing your suit really needs is a few alterations. And don't think it doesn't. It's a mistake that many guys make. Everybody's different and every body is different.  Now, what about a custom suit? Shouldn't need any alterations, right? Because it's made for you. Even a custom suit is going to need a few alterations once it actually comes in. It's extremely common. What this means is that you need to build in some extra time for alterations when buying a suit to get the perfect fit. Because remember, fit is king. And I'm just here trying to make sure you look and feel your best.