Hello, everyone. Welcome to this week's Product School webinar. Thanks for joining us today. Just in case you didn't know, Product School teaches product management, coding, data analytics, and digital marketing courses online and at our 15 campuses worldwide. On top of that, every week we offer some amazing local product management events and most online webinars, live streams, and ask me anything sessions. Head over to productschool.com after this webinar to check them out. Today we have an awesome guest presenting. I'd like to introduce you to Dave Mathias. Dave is the founder of Beyond the Data, where he helps customers be user focused and data fluent. Over the years, he has worked in various product roles in small to large companies with a consistent focus on data and analytic products. He believes that customer problems are solved through a mixture of people, process, data, and technology, and is a strong believer that advising clients mean you teach them how to finish, how to fish, and how to solve real high value problems. Feel free to leave any questions for Dave in the comments, and I'll be sure to ask him them at the end. And without further ado, let's welcome Dave. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you, Dan. And I am going to share my screen. Perfect. Okay, excellent. Okay, so welcome, everyone. Great to be here today and always enjoy talking about product and talking about data. So we're going to be mixing those two today with using data visualization from product people or for product people. And so there might be a little noise in the background just to let you know, but we'll try to keep that down as much as possible. So what's the agenda today? Well, we're going to talk about data visualization, how it plays a role in product and how. And what are the ABCs of effective data visualization? Where to start and how to continue learning. But before we start, successful data is more than just charts and graphs, because that's what people oftentimes think about. But really data is just one component of a number of things. Of course, user experience is vital nowadays and more and more emphasis is put there. But things like gamification and behavioral science and more come into play when you're actually thinking about data visualization, how it's going to benefit, whether it's your end users in your product or whether it's even how you're relaying information to sales or to other areas. So where does data visualization play a role in product and how? Well, there's a number of places and these are just a few that we're going to talk about is communicating with executives. Of course, that's oftentimes, you know, using charts and graphs. It's great to help executives understand the material you're trying to put out. Enabling sales is of course another component. Understanding marketing is critical. Understanding your customers, of course, because that's one of the core things as a product manager. And of course, even integrating within your product itself. And here's an example of that and some of the stuff they've done with data visualization. So types of data visualization, though, because people oftentimes think of one, but not the other. So exploratory is the one that people often don't think about. So you have data and you want to understand what that data looks like. Well, use exploratory data visualization to help yourself understand what that data looks like. And then of course, there's the storytelling aspect that we're all used to when we talk about data visualization. So let's go through some of the ABCs for effective data visualization. And this is not an exhaustive list, but I think these are the key things that if you nail these things right, you're going to be well off. So first thing, it's got to start here. There's a reason why it's at the front is, what's the value to the user? So asking yourself all the time, what is that value to the end user, whether you're including it in the report, data base, or whether you're going to be putting in your product all too often, things are just put there because you need to check the box and know, think about how data visualization is used, what's that value. Of course, understand your audience. So empathize with the audience, ask the questions, who, what, when, where, and how. So those questions, who is your audience? What do they want to understand using data visualization? When are they going to access your data viz? When are they going to? Actually, I repeated that one. Where are they going to access your data viz? I did not repeat that. And how are they going to use your data viz? So asking yourself those things and really understanding those users. And reality is, is you may have one different user type, right, that's accessing that information, whether it's an infographic or whether it's in your product. But one thing to really keep in mind all the time is keep it simple. Bar charts, line charts, scatter pods, you know, they sometimes seem boring, but done well. That's really the way people are going to understand how to interpret your visualization. And they're going to get the most bang for your buck. Because that's what you're there for. You're trying to relay information to help them, you know, change behavior or understand some action or something. But if you try to make a fancy data viz that people have a hard time understanding, it doesn't matter. So things like, like I say, a line chart when, especially when you have continuous data like this, like dates, you'd want to use. On the other hand, scatter pods are great, you know, can relay a lot of information, but the bar charts and others that are standard things to avoid, though, those, those word charts, I mean, they're, they're, they're nice to show a little, they're fancy and all that. And certain, certain areas yesterday, those certainly stay away from 3D, stay away from complicated pie charts, things like that.  So just keep it simple. Another thing that often comes into play is color and really thinking about how you're using color for a number of reasons. One is you know, graded color is great when it's continuous. But remember humans are not able to absorb an unlimited amount of gradations and really process the data. So think of that 5, 8, 5, 10 scale of how many gradations you're going to make and go accordingly. On the other hand, you may have data that's called categorical data. For example, states or, you know, models of cars. And that categorical data, you're going to want to use very colors when you have that. The other thing, of course, to always be aware of, though, is bad use of color. Be aware, you know, accessibility is so important nowadays. So what kind of colors do people typically have colorblind? You know, certainly the red, green, the blues are two of the most popular with the colorblind. But in another way to, you know, account for that, even if you want to use red, green, is you can use shapes, size, textures and other ways to help differentiate between the colors in a different way. So you have the two colors that you can be using lines that go across the green to help differentiate for the person that's colorblind, for example. So any good product manager, you should be empathetic. So that's no different than in data is if you're a product manager. So use a little text to provide context. This is one of the things I think I see most underused is when you have a graphic, whether it's in your product or whether it's infographic or whether it's sent in an email, provide that text to go with it. What's that takeaway that you want out of that charter graph? And also make sure to label, label, label, label things, the titles, your accesses, etc. And think about text size and font because not everyone has the same eyes as you. Really understanding this goes back to the empathizing with your audience and really knowing who your audience is. If people are going to have a harder time, make the font a little bit larger. Data-vis experience. So just a user experience, there's data-vis experience that you're going to have. So what's that experience like that that user is going to apply? And there's some different ways that this could happen that we'll be touching on. Just as a reminder, don't do too much. So just try and throw that out there. Once again, this goes along with being simple. But so we talked about different audiences. One of the things you'll notice, and like Fitbit is a great example, I think of a company that does a great job in their application with Data-vis, especially even hitting on this novice nerd concept. So sometimes you're going to have people that are very novice to your data or novice to data visualization. And you'll keep it very simplified for those users. On the other hand, you're also going to have the more complex, they meet with somebody that's regularly using data or they're really wanting to nerd out on that data that they're getting out of their Fitbit or out of whatever product or whatever dashboard you're showing them. And now those super nerds, sometimes you're going to have to play to both of those and understanding how to integrate into Data-vis, how you can play to both of those is something that takes a little time to do, but when done well, it's very beneficial. The other thing to think about is exploring versus informing. So when I say explore, you think of the New York Times and some of the stuff they do with their Data-vis. If you've ever, if you haven't looked at that, you should look at that. They do some great stories, really complicated Data-vis. It's really an exploration that you're going to go through. On the other hand, sometimes, especially like when you're going to communicate something to your executives, you just want to have a quick amount of information. You have your KPIs, you might have a simple bar chart. You have some really simple things that you're going to let them take a few seconds, process the information, and then be able to act. So really understanding who that audience is once again. Are you wanting that audience to explore? Are you wanting to inform? Are you wanting both? And then how do you make sure that the right user gets to the right channel is important? The other thing is what Data-vis is a great way to experiment more than a lot of things. You can really do a lot of great experimentation in Data-vis and see how it works. So it's one of those things put out there, especially if you're talking about putting in a product. But even if you're like using it into like say communications to your sales team, test things out, see how it goes, you know, typical A-B testing and see what works best. But one thing that often happens is people put these Data-vis or they put a dashboard and they put something out there and it just stays out there. They don't know if it's being used. They don't know what's well like, what's not like. They just sort of throw it out of the world. So you really got to think about getting input, tracking usage, and then iterating all of that. Because if you're not doing those three things, then you really are wasting your time and your user's time most likely. So when you're talking about this, where's a good way to start? Now, it sort of depends on what you're looking to do.  Well, maybe you want to start using an A-communication or report that you normally provide. So maybe it's a report with a lot of words and a lot of tables and now you're going to, you know, try to incorporate some Data-visualization. That's a good place for you to start practicing with things. Design some Data-vis that would help you better communicate with that audience.  And then make sure to, like I say, get that input from those folks, you know, test it out, see what they say, and then integrate that Data-visualization communication or report in this case. But of course, we can be doing the same thing when we're talking about incorporating in a product. And then of course, like I said, the last stage is always test, iterate and repeat. Just like anything else, you want to, you know, it's never going to be perfect, but you always want to be looking at trying to make it better. So those are just the ways to start with a communication or report. But like I say, you can take the same steps and you can integrate those steps into a putting it in your new, putting a dashboard, for example, in your app. But once again, you're going to have to think about, you know, if you have an app that's desktop version and mobile version, you know, how does that relay that information to those mobile users versus those desktop users?  Is there that value like we talked about in the beginning? Or whether it's something that users really don't do without. And maybe if there's a few minutes, it might go through some couple of examples of things that are out there. So knowing that we're short on time, I do want to make sure to put some things to continue learning. And then maybe we'll go into a couple of examples before we take questions. So some online learning that's out there, you know, there's tons of great YouTube videos, there's this thing called Makeover Monday. It's done, you'll often see it in the Tableau format. There's what's called Tableau Public. And Tableau is just a data visualization tool. It's just one of many tools that are out there. But there's this thing that called Monday Makeover. It's done out of the UK. They basically publish data. It comes out on Sunday. The whole idea is to put together a data visualization based off that data roughly in an hour and publish it out there. And so it's one of those, it's been going on for years and it's a great way to practice your skills. And also you have access to different types of data so you can get better at both doing it yourself, but also seeing what other people did with that same data. Another site that's great is Information.   I know in the Twin Cities we have those with Chicago and San Francisco and Seattle and all these cities have these DataViz meetups that are there. But if you're in a city that doesn't have one, well then create one. Get people together that are interested in DataViz and, you know, you'll learn better and you'll also be helping the community. So some great books that are out there. The Big Book of Dashboards. It's a great dashboard book, Storytelling with Data from Colin Nossbaum. It's a great book out there. And then of course, there's one that's more recent called Data Visualization Made Simple. I interviewed our author, she's out of New York. And it's really, I think, pretty exhaustive book on Data Visualization. I was really impressed with it myself. So another good book to take a look at. There's another podcast out there. But I'm going to list two, Storytelling with Data. So that's Colin Nossbaum who did the book up above. But she also has a podcast called Storytelling with Data also. Great one. And then I'm going to put a plug out there, Sheamus Plug for the podcast that my business partner and I do call DataAble because we focus on everything that's the non-technical side of data. So DataViz included.  But let's take a few minutes and dive into a couple examples. So before going into the thank you and all that, have a few examples here. So this is Fitbit. So Fitbit has, like say, a great app that's out there. They have a lot of, and this is just one example of DataViz. This is sort of their dashboard on mobile. And they do a great job of using color. They do a great job of varying of text. So you can see here, okay, most important thing for me is how many steps I'm walking. So I have that as a primary thing. It's biggest. It's easy to tell. It's green because I hit the goal for the day. Same with these other things. Then there's other things when I scroll down here. There's a curious how much sleep for a night. Yeah, bad night of sleep. What's your current heart rate? And then of course, when you finish of these things, this is where I say, you know, you're going from novice to expert, you click on these things, you're going to get more depth. And that's really, you know, this is a great novice because I can quickly identify information that's out there. But then I can dive in deeper and really understand, okay, on my sleep, for example, okay, I slept this long. What are the different levels of REM sleep that I have? What was the average throughout the week? What's my last week versus this week look like? Things like that. So you can really get into nerd out if you're looking to nerd out with that data. So like I say, here's some good on this easy to calculate, simple color icons, etc. Some, an opportunity here, I think for them to make it better is the top card when you switch from the, you see those arrows at the top, that's switching days. But when you switch days above, it doesn't switch days below with like sleep and heart rate and all those things. So I think that's an opportunity that they could do to better create a better user experience. Here's an example of one that I don't think is so great. And sorry, audible, but I'm a big fan of audible. But at the same time, I think they do a really bad job with their data visualization from an obscene Android app. And so this is a few months ago, I took this picture. It's one of the several data visualizations that are there. It's an example of really a dog like why do I care about like how many books that I have right now in my library on the 77 books? Okay. And it's pretty much a straight line. And I imagine most people on audible have that similar straight line. So is it going to really change my behavior? Does it give me information that I really need to know? Do I really need that table to understand that? No, I don't think anyone. So yeah, it's clean and easy to understand, but it really doesn't provide much value. Like we're talking about that first thing doesn't encourage me to really buy more books. I don't see anything. I don't see anything that says, Hey, you're buying less than the average user. You're consuming less. It doesn't talk about, like, Oh, okay, there's there is a listening time one to the left. You'll see, but the listening time is simple numbers. There isn't really any straight visualization, other than just reporting out your numbers. So does this make me feel better about myself? Does this help my more of my behavior at all? Once again, all those questions, I think I know at least for me, you may feel different. But because of that, I just think they could do a better job with their database. So I'm going to show one more example, because I think it's a good example of another thing outside of a typical product. And so this is a company in actually Minnesota, where I'm actually from. It's called a sleep number. They do these nice beds. They have this whole select or this number that they say, Hey, you sleep at this number, your partner maybe sleeps at a different number, you can each rest more comfortably. But this is showing an in-store demo that they have. And it's a great example of data visualization used. It's a way to empower a retail salesperson. And you could see, of course, like overly happy customers, probably not as happy to realize. But they're looking at it. It's pretty easy to understand. They see their body. They see the pressure points where it's at. You also see where it's got a single score where it comes down to it's got both, you know, both on one on each side. So once again, it's a great example, a great tool to say, Okay, use data visualization, not just in a mobile app, if you've been using a product, but maybe you're using it to empower sales to better do their job, which is what's happening in this case. So like I say, this is a great example for a number reasons. I'm not sure if they actually do this or not. But of course, another great opportunity would be to say, Hey, here's a printout of your sleep number and where, you know, where your pressure was and all that. And here's a coupon or some kind of a thing that I'm going to give with it to take with you in case they're not buying right away in the store. So that is what I was going to cover now. And I wanted to leave time for questions because I know we only have 30 minutes in total. So before I open it up for questions, Dan has any, but here's some ways to get ahold of me. So a number of things on Twitter, on LinkedIn, whatever, like reach out to me, check out the podcast data able, love to get your feedback. We're probably maybe 14 or 15 episodes in private tapes, another 10 or so. So we're still relatively new to this podcast game ourselves. So love to get input and how would you make that better? Because the product manager audience is certainly one of those audiences that we think is beneficial for this. So that's all I have right now, Dan, if there's any questions. Awesome. Thank you so much for that presentation. So I'm only seeing one question here now. Let's see if people post them now while I ask you this next one. So one question we always ask all of our speakers is, do you have any advice for aspiring product managers, a piece of wisdom, a quote or anything you feel like would help them excel? Yeah, that's a great question. So I think there's a lot of words for advice, but I think the biggest word of advice is to say yes to things when you're young in your career, but quickly learn how to say no. You're going to have to say yes because you're going to want to learn, you want to take in a lot, but then being able to say no and really focus on the things that are going to make impact on your product are really important for product managers as they're evolving from that early stage product manager to a more tenured product manager and successful. Awesome. Thank you for that advice. So we have one question here, which are the best tools for someone starting with data viz? So I think you mentioned a couple books and podcasts and other good things, but do you have a favorite or a best one for someone starting off? Yeah, so there's a few that I'm going to list because I don't like to pick favorites, but I think there's several that are out there that are really good. So Certainly Tablo has a public version, which I think is a really good way to get involved with data visualization. It's a very strong community that's out there online too, so especially even if you're an area that doesn't have a very engaged database community, you can still get involved with the online community there. There's also Power VI, which is from Microsoft, has really been upping their game a lot, and their free version is probably the best free version of any of the platform products that are out there. So it's a great thing. You can just download a lot of horsepower. It's really good for not just visualizing data, but also editing data. So one of the things that when you get data, a big part of it is preparing data to be in a form that's ready to visualize. It has a lot of good horsepower. Power VI does to do that. Tablo has a version of that, like they call it Tablo Prep, but it's a fairly pricey product to get. But then there's other products out there like Click and Domo and others that are out there that are great products. But I tell most people is like, find out what products if your organization has one, because that's one you really should try to understand from a product perspective. But if you don't have any in your organization, you're looking to just try to bring something on. To be honest, right now I'm telling people to say, Power VI is something you can bring in there. It's free to try out. You can do some stuff. And maybe you want to switch to Tablo or switch to one of these other things if you go broader, because you could really do a lot of these things with whichever product that's out there. But Power VI is just a good one because it's free nature and the horsepower that it offers you to start out with. Awesome. Thank you for that. So I think that's it. We don't have any other questions here in the comments. So before we wrap it up, I wanted to give all of our listeners some more information about our upcoming courses and events. Product school offers, product management, coding, data analytics, and digital marketing courses at our 15 campuses around the US, UK, and Canada. If you're located near campus, make sure you stop by one of our weekly events every Wednesday and Thursday. Also, you can find us on social media at product school and be sure to keep up with the latest product management content at the product blog at productschool.com. You can also find a recording of this webinar on our YouTube channel, Product School San Francisco. And that's it. So thank you all for joining. Enjoy the rest of your day. And I hope to see you next week. Thank you so much for your presentation. Thank you. I look forward to anyone reaching out. Have a great day.


Vinegars have been made and used by people for thousands of years to flavor food. In fact, traces of vinegars have been found in Egyptian urns dating back to 3000 BC. Vinegars are made by adding a bacteria called acetobacter aceti to diluted wine, ale, or fermented fruits or grains. This creates acetic acid, which gives the liquid a sour flavor. The vinegar we buy in the store is acetic acid in water, ranging from 4% to 6% acid. Hi, I'm Roxy Dinstall of the Cooperative Extension Service University of Alaska Fairbanks. Today we are demonstrating how to make flavored vinegars using herbs, fruits, spices, and fruit juice. This is a simple process that makes for a high quality product that can add variety to your family's meals. Research on food preservation is an ongoing process. The United States Department of Agriculture and the Cooperative Extension Service continuously apply new research findings to their recommendations for food preservation techniques. The guidelines in this module may be revised as additional knowledge is gained that may increase the margin of safety or improve the quality of home-preserved foods. Consult your local Cooperative Extension Office annually for updated information. To make flavored vinegar, you'll need glass bowls or plastic containers, measuring cups and spoons, cheesecloth for straining the vinegar, jars with two-piece lids like these, and a boiling water canner. Supplies include herbs like our fresh herbs that we have growing over here. We have cilantro and parsley. We're going to need vinegars, fruit juices, spices such as these cinnamon sticks, and fruit. Vinegars to be flavored come in a wide variety of types based on what the vinegars are made from and how they are made. The product you're making will determine the type of vinegar used as the foundation. White distilled vinegar is typically stronger and sharper than other vinegars and is used in pickling. They usually contain about 5% acetic acid. Apple cider vinegar is made from cider or apple juice and has a characteristic brownish yellow color. Balsamic vinegar is an aromatic age type of vinegar made from the concentrated juice of white grapes. It's very dark brown in color and has fine flavors developed from years of aging. Rice vinegar is made of rice and is most popular in East and Southeast Asia. It comes in white, which is really kind of a light yellow color. It also comes in red and black. Wine vinegar is made from red or white wine and is used in Mediterranean countries. Wine vinegar has a lower acidity than white or cider vinegars. To make flavored vinegars, we recommend using either rice or white wine vinegar as the foundation. Distilled white vinegar can be successfully made into flavored vinegars but may be a bit stronger, sometimes overwhelming the delicate flavors of the herbs. By the same token, cider vinegar has a more distinctive flavor and color that may not be as attractive with some herb combinations. Today we're going to demonstrate how to make three different types of flavored vinegars. A simple herb vinegar, a vinegar made with fresh fruit and herbs, and a vinegar made with fruit juice. Begin the preparation with clean equipment and supplies. Equipment must be clean to avoid contaminating the vinegar. Make sure all bowls, jars, and measuring equipment are scrupulously clean. If using a jar for the steeping, sterilize the jars by heating and boiling water for 10 minutes. A simple herb vinegar can be easily made by just putting some sprigs of herbs in a jar and pouring warm vinegar over them. The temperature of the vinegar will be just below boiling, about 190 degrees. Use three or four sprigs per two cups of vinegar. I've washed and dried my herb. I'm going to put it in the jar, place it in the bottom of my jar. Three or four sprigs, but again it depends on how strong the flavor of those herbs are. I have my vinegar. It is hot, just about boiling, so it will steep rather quickly. I'm going to pour it right over the top. I've chosen to use a white wine vinegar. Turn my stove off. I'm going to put the lid on it and let it steep for three to four weeks. You can also use dried herbs. In that case, we're going to use three tablespoons of dried herbs per pint. Out here I have some dill and I have some red cracked pepper that would make wonderful vinegars. At the end of the three weeks, we're going to strain the vinegar through a cheesecloth and discard the herbs. They do begin to look a little rough after a while. When the herb vinegar is finished, it may be hot water canned for five minutes and sterilized jars with two-piece lids. For more information on boiling water canners, refer to the Canning Basics DVD, available through the University of Alaska Fairbanks Cooperative Extension Service. You may also keep the vinegar tightly covered in the refrigerator until all the vinegar is used. Now I have some vinegars up here that I've made. The first one is a purple basil vinegar. As you can see, I just took the purple basil and poured the warm vinegar over it. It has a beautiful color after steeping. Of course, after about three weeks, we did pull out all the old herbs. I also have a sage vinegar and it's very attractive as well. It was made with dried herbs. It has a wonderful flavor. Now the third one is one that is my personal favorite and I used edible flowers. Edible flowers can be used to flavor vinegars and a good example is used to blossoms from nasturtiums, chives or any other edible flowers. Simply fill the bottle with blossoms and pour the vinegar over the top. This is a vinegar I made last summer from nasturtiums. Note the beautiful color and it has a great peppery flavor from the blossoms. Next, let's make a blueberry basil vinegar that is featured in Cooperative Extension Service publication using Alaska's Wild Berry and other wild products. This is a simple vinegar just like the one I just made, but it has the addition of blueberries. The ingredients are four cups of fresh or frozen blueberries, four cups of white wine vinegar, the zest of one lemon and one cup of fresh basil, loosely packed. First thing we're going to do is combine our blueberries, one cup of the white wine vinegar and we're going to lightly crush the blueberries. Bruising the fruit incorporates the flavor into the vinegar much more quickly. And as you can see, I've used frozen blueberries and there's a lot of juice that's already loose. Now we're going to add the remaining three cups of vinegar, stir it up and then I want to crush my basil and drop it in. Crushing releases all of those wonderful aromatic oils so they'll be quickly incorporated into the flavor of our vinegar. Oh man, that stuff smells great. Just a picture of summertime. A lot of basil, get the last of that out of there. Crush it up. Aromatic oils are what give herbs their very unique flavor. Now we're going to stir it in and the only thing left is our lemon zest and we're going to add that in. Oh gosh, it smells great. Now we're going to cover the bowl with wax paper or plastic wrap. I'm going to secure it. Don't get any added mold spores in there. So we're going to allow the vinegar to steep in a cool dark place for four weeks, stirring every two to three days. I'm going to set that one aside and take you over here where we're going to talk about one that I've already got finished. This is the same vinegar. It's set for four weeks and it's now ready to finish. So I've strained it through cheesecloth to get rid of those old herbs and the extra blueberries. Put it in a small pot on top of the stove and I've brought it to a simmer. Now I have my canning funnel in here. You can see it's hotter it is, the quicker it'll can.  This smells really good. Of course I love the smell of blueberries in the summertime and this really smells good. Let's see, I haven't got quite enough in there. Sometimes it's kind of a fool you when you get that canning funnel in there, exactly how much is in that jar. I'm going to put our lid on and it's all ready to process for ten minutes in the boiling water canner. Now after processing a cooling, the vinegars are ready to be put in your pantry. Now I'll be back in a little while when I have all these vinegars processed and finished. The third vinegar we're going to prepare today is Lobush cranberry orange vinegar using Alaska Lobush cranberry juice. Lobush cranberries are also called lingonberries. I've taken one cup of cranberry juice that I canned last summer and I'm going to put with it one cup of sugar. I'm going to mix it together until it dissolves. Now the cranberry juice that I had, I canned it last summer and the recommendations for canning cranberry juice are given in the Alaska Wild Berry Book. It's always nice to have these wonderful products that you can use later that you prepared last summer. So we're going to simmer the juice until the sugar is dissolved. You can hear that grating sound. That tells me that my sugar is not dissolved yet. So while I'm waiting for it to dissolve, I'm going to prepare my spices. I have a couple of cinnamon sticks and some cloves. I'm going to pull the ends up and tie this together. Now the reason I'm putting them in a spice bag is that the cheesecloth is so porous that it allows the flavors to come right out of there but yet I don't have to be fishing out all those little pieces of cloves later. So they're all ready. My cranberries are ready and my white wine vinegar is ready. So let's see how our juice is doing. Well, it's beginning to dissolve and you can still hear that little bit of gradiness that tells us it's kind of like sand in the bottom. I always say you can always look for the milky look but I can always hear the sugar whether the sugar is dissolved or not. Okay, and you can hear how all of a sudden there's just a little bit of gradiness, not much. It's important to go ahead and dissolve that sugar so that it'll mix easier when we put the other stuff with it. Okay, hear that? That tells us it's all ready. Okay, we're going to add our cranberries, low-wish cranberries, our spice bag, and three cups of white wine vinegar. Now we're going to bring it back up to a boil and once it gets to a boil we're going to allow it to simmer for at least ten minutes. Now at the end of that ten minute period we're going to remove the spice bag, cut a thin slice of orange and put it in the bottom of each hot jar and ladle the vinegar over the top. It'll be processed in a boiling water bath canner for at least ten minutes. I'm sorry, let me say that again. It has to be processed for ten minutes in a boiling water canner. Now that we've demonstrated three different types of flavored vinegars, we hope you'll enjoy using these and trying them at home. It takes at least ten days for most flavors to develop and about three to four weeks for the greatest flavor to be extracted. Crushing herbs and bruising fruit hastens the flavoring process. Be sure to taste to check the product development. Place a few drops on a piece of bread and taste to evaluate the flavoring. If it's too weak, leave it to steep a little longer. If the flavor is too strong, it can be diluted with more of the foundation vinegar. I'm going to finish this vinegar up, needs to simmer just a little longer. I'm going to can it and then we'll be back to talk about storage. Because vinegars are highly acidic, mold is one of the few problems that can occur. Make sure all of your equipment is spotlessly clean before starting and keep the vinegar covered during the steeping period to protect from mold spores entering the product. If mold occurs in the vinegar, discard it as it is unsafe to use. The mold may show up as a sliminess. These products have been processed in a boiling water canner and the seals have been checked, labeled with the product, the processing time and the date. If vinegars are properly prepared and bottled, they're good for three months when stored in a cool place and six to eight months if stored in the refrigerator. If the flavored vinegar ever has mold on it or in it or signs of fermentation such as bubbling, cloudiness or sliminess, throw it away without using any of the vinegar for any purpose. Vinegars can be combined with a small amount of oil and used as a salad dressing, used in marinades and even combined with club soda for a refreshing beverage. Experiment with your favorite herbs and fruits to develop your own recipes.


This wonderful plot is from the IPCC and other places. This is a different scale. Today is over here on your right, and the 400 over here is 400 million years. Not 400 years, 400 million years. So this is really deep time. And what you have plotted on here are two different things. At the top, hanging down in blue, is the extent of glaciers at a time. And so there were no ice on the planet, basically at sea level. And then there was a little blip of glaciers, and they went away. And then the glaciers went way down towards the equator, not of a way by any means, but they got more than halfway there. And then they melted away into a time with no ice near sea level. And then the glaciers have come back, and we have ice in Antarctica and Greenland today. So there's the history, and you could think of this as a history as temperature. There was no because it was warm. There was ice because it was cold. There was no ice because it was warm. There was ice because it was cold. Okay? Shown below is the history of CO2. And what you'll notice is when there was no ice, CO2 was high. And this is estimated in various ways. But what you have here is this high CO2 back here in a no ice time. And then when CO2 got low, the ice had grown. And when CO2 went back up to being high, the ice had melted away. And when CO2 got low again, the ice had grown back. And it turns out there's actually a little dip in CO2 right here that goes with this little blip of ice. And so what we see is a very nice relationship. High CO2, little or no ice, low CO2, lots of ice. Furthermore, we understand from processes that you can read about in our course and elsewhere that it is the CO2 causing the changes in ice and not primarily the ice causing the changes in the CO2. And this is something you just can't see from this correlation, but we get it from other sources. Now try to walk you through a few events in climate history. We're going to start with this one back here, the Great Dying, a time when volcanic CO2 raised the temperature and seems to have made it so hot near the equator that large creatures couldn't live there. We're then going to walk you into the Polyacine-Eacine Thermomaximum, a time when some formerly living carbon came out of seafloor methane or other sources belched out fairly rapidly and made it warm. And we'll finish up with the Ice Ages. This is a time when features of Earth's orbit have driven temperature changes, but those temperature changes have been amplified and made global by CO2.


It is matchday one, TP post Popovich. It's a new era for the Red and Black, and it starts today against Perth. Thought about shooting there, slips it through for Junpei instead. In the last inch challenge, lots of lines to pull, so who knows. Cutenall for Oriole Riera, and there's the first goal for the Wanderers. Kiribank is trying to carry it forward, and look at the room open up now for Brendan Hamill on the right. It's Junpei, it's two for Western Sydney Wanderers. And in the blink of an eye, the Wanderers have scored twice. Good, encouraged to shoot. Oh, he chips it beautifully. And Oriole Riera puts it over the crossbar with a touch by Junpei. So Huda gets away from Lowry. Oh, tries to chip it towards that far post. What a special goal that would have been. Keo, they've got one. And the Wanderers are on the board for season 13. The Wanderers 2, glory one, it finished.


No, I don't have to I don't have to defend the IMF in the Asian crisis because I I think they I think they started out making some mistaken assumptions on the other hand 1996 fastest growing region in the world emerging Asia 1997 recession 1998 recession and the conventional wisdom You see the Asian Tigers have feet of clay structural feet of clay crony capitalism It'll be a decade before they recover 1999 fastest growing region in the world emerging Asia. So somebody was doing something right. So it's It's a more complex story than is used that is usually told But in practical terms in practical terms Where what should central banks be doing now what should regulators be doing now that they're not doing? And or because earlier before you arrived I think the general consensus was that the current macro situation is pretty is pretty favorable And is likely to continue in the near term that even though there were risks I don't think that the consensus was that we're at at the edge of a crisis And I think if I was were to ask there probably wasn't a consensus that a crisis is Inevitable because we're on the on the wrong track in other words that the central banks that policy makers especially the central banks and Regulators have made fundamental mistakes that make the next that already make the next crisis inevitable is that somebody want to Descent from that Andre on central banks, I think In Europe at least in the eurozone. I think we have to finish the job The job has been done. I guess 70% roughly or something like that in terms of coordinating regulation having a system to have a deposit warranty At the level of the eurozone It's well advanced, but it should be completed because again, I guess again Danielle's component shows it There is again this recurring idea that European banks are weak are sick are full of bad loans and so on which I really believe Maybe part sometimes right, but what is true is that when it came out it was solved Right, so we will get that out of it. The second problem we have I don't think it's a problem for central banks I think Bertrand put it very well There is liquidity there is money and we need to have investments start again And I don't think you'll find the solution only with the banks because the constraints today are very high and Given the very low rates today. They should have a strong incentive to lend and I don't think there is a problem there. What you see is happening is on a very small scale non-bank funding Which doesn't really? Cover the problem was too small, but that is growing what you also see is banks setting up subsidiaries or new banks getting into the picture with Different approach because I guess I mentioned that French telecom Company, which is actually more than French As you know in Asia Banking is now done basically by by the cell phones That these payments are done on cell phones and there's also some credit done this way So you see new ways of funding the economy which for the time being are very small scale But could potentially become very very large and maybe that's something that central banks should be looking at Not to stop it or to control it, but to just to see can it be helped in some ways You know to have the system moving. Let me say what the central banks should do I fully agree the central banks cannot invigorate the economies no way and We say banks should lend There is not much of a demand so banks are much more reluctant to lend because of the of the history and there is still a legacy problem there is still I mean at least EU countries and Your your area countries are still very much in debt both public and private debt is pretty large So there is a legacy issue And and the demand is not there not many companies are There is not much of an appetite to borrow so we should acknowledge it. It's not like banks want to lend but The demand is there, but banks do not want to lend it's it's both it works both ways secondly They are structural changes at work in the global economy including digitization and and the new technologies in general which change the picture tremendously and there is so much uncertainty I mean in which fields to invest this is also an issue where to invest. They are the geopolitical also which have to be Factor in so it's not like we have a lot of resources, but We don't know what to invest then There is still a lot of resource misallocation when there is still a lot of resource misallocation. It's not easy to invest more So and and and last but not least I believe that the where the center banks should Be much more clairvoyant is that they that the whole of finance should be regulated The whole of finance because there is an ongoing debate whether things actually And in my view my humble view FinTech has to be regulated because FinTech can be also quite dangerous FinTech is not only an infant industry, which has to be groomed, but it can be very dangerous There is another point which actually has happened throughout this 10 years of this crisis decade Which is a massive shift I would say in the system between banks and institution investors I mean I've been group CFO of two banks and before the crisis the name of the game was to grow your balance sheet and make as Much money as you could with your balance sheet and now the growth of your balance sheet is it comes with such a tremendous cost I mean it comes with capital requirement with tax with so you have zero incentive whatsoever to grow your balance sheet So it's a shift So actually it's very interesting to see that this crisis started with one of the failure of the originated Distribute system in the US related to the subprime and at the end game of the crisis is to push all banks into this originated Distribute system and to put it through the I mean through the value chain And so banks have really changed their roles during these 10 years which has also an impact for the monetary policy Etc. The way the way it's transmitted We are the same moment institution investors not only have grown in size, but are more and more concentrated I mean I Remember I reminded people of a lunch when I was a young banker in New York in the year 2000 I was very modestly advising Larry Fink was CEO of BlackRock at that time He was passing the $200 billion threshold and he was kind of considered a big fixed-income boutique Well, let me put it this way and I remember when I really were on the whiteboard and say someday I would manage a trillion and I say my god this guy is crazy never got I mean one trillion This is just enormous and now BlackRock is managing five point five trillion And you have like ten people which are managing between two and five trillions which is a nerd of in the history of mankind So this is a massive shift. What consequences do we take out of this? I mean the business model of this is people is so different. I mean Societe Generale 160,000 people for one point six trillion dollar balance sheet BlackRock is managing I know it's not exactly comparable, but sort of and BlackRock has five point five trillion dollar of assets and imagine They have 12,000 staff. So the margins are not the same. It's not the people on the ground It's a totally different world that we are not prepared for that and when I call for holistic perspective It also does take this into account. I think it's important to see who are these new players I mean, is it good or bad that we have 20 guys managing more than one or two trillion? Can we argue that I mean if these people react the same way at the same moment It will create the worst panic you can even imagine The 40 trillion moving the same if the 40 chief economist have the same analysis of the same moment Is it scary or not? So you can be scared You can also argue that you don't have the same level of transformation that you have in the banking system That this this companies actually are quite decentralized that behind BlackRock actually have many small smaller shops And they all make different decisions, which is probably right actually But you could also argue the flip side is that it's also a great opportunity to have people which have so much money at hand Because if they do it properly they can really make a difference So the fact that these people suddenly say oh climate change is important It has an impact for us. I want to move in a low-carbon economy. My god. What a leverage We have found which did not exist before the crisis So I think these are these kind of very significant shifts, which we are discovering as we speak But I don't think we've taken I mean drawn any consequences from what's happening and I think for me It's it's fascinating. So I'm not I'm not scared again. I'm scared by the lack of cooperation I'm scared by number of things but on the other side we have the tools we have capacity to handle things That's why it's a fascinating moment because we can go either direction What can central banks do I think Lebanon has been a Prime example for unconventional monetary policies I give an example about the stimulus package and its impact there are two other examples that I can give One is what we call the financial engineering. It was a simple swap It wasn't that simple, but it's multi-level swap that reaped that turned around the situation in Lebanon whereby Banks were capitalized so in anticipation to IFRS 9 and what one January 1st 2018 their basal basal three requirements is not 12 and a half It's 15% now and we have requested the banks to take 2% provisions as well on all their on all their portfolio in In addition to this the balance of payment because of this financial engineering tool that we have done the balance of payment has turned around from a negative a deficit of 1.7 billion dollars in May 2016 into a cumulative surplus of 1.3 billion at the end of the year at that same year in In addition to this we were able to stack our reserves foreign reserves by 43 billion 43 and a half billion dollars So for the first time in Lebanon in the history of Lebanon Lebanon has come close to 44 billion dollars over a GDP of 54 billion dollars So this is one of the things that we've done another thing that I will end up with here is what we call We have launched the knowledge economy in Lebanon We we have taken advantage of the youth the brains that we have in our kids And we availed for the first time and launched the knowledge economy whereby banks do get involved in equity financing rather than giving them loans For the first time banks are partners because prior to this and in any other projects Banks are not allowed to get in partnership with any of their customers with the exception of the knowledge economy Whereby they are they go in in partnership with them. So these are examples about what can central banks do one last thing There was some talk about compliance At every single bank not only they have compliance departments at the hand said head office They have a compliance department in every single branch and that compliance officer Should not be the one who is doing the selling or account opening or what have you that should be some kind of a support Function someone who doesn't deal much with customers if any Thank you very much. If I may I have to catch a plane as a question for me or I'll please So I'll take it and then rush Banks in Lebanon Subject to Basel 2 or 3 Actually all of the capital equity investment capital charge 500% or 750% How can banks can extend equity investment Well, we have no choice. This is why with the financial engineering tool is actually it just we have turned the situation around and we made them capitalized Actually, it's so far Lebanon's and banks are the banks are the backbone of the economy With with what's happening around us with with all the wars all around us with we had we had the terrorists I says right on the borders and part of that for Lebanon. They've taken some parts of Lebanon We have Israel and sour southern border Syria on the northern and eastern border terrorists are all over So this is the only thing that can give confidence as we spoke today Now I'm attending to my phone because I'm getting so many questions from the From the journalists what's happening with the Lebanese leader of the Lebanese because Hariri has resigned today and this will have a major impact So these are the types of things. This is why we are very keen on really Stucking our banks with as much Immunity as possible so that an issue like this or just there are so many different issues Another war gets waged on Lebanon were fine because what can happen in times like this fortunately This came on Saturday and tomorrow is a Sunday people immediately would just transfer their level their Lebanese lira into dollars or euros or Transfer them out of Lebanon or do both So this is why you know I've been in touch with the governor It's what kind of statements we have to make and on the other phone I'm giving that statements to to the other journalists So these are the things that we have we cannot afford but be as Stucky as possible as as heavy as possible and you know what we have 30% liquidity 30% liquidity in our banks This is a lot we have 43 and a half billion dollars as foreign reserves at the central bank This is a lot, you know, it's it's costing just I'm part of the investment committee as well I know exactly what that what it takes and what kind of returns we have on our on our money It's not that fun, but we have to this is sort of the insurance policy that we take for our banks and for the central bank as well Thank you and good luck Challenging It's all right didn't break didn't break, okay Elena you wanted to speak Just a quick comment on your question John about how to use them Relatively favorable economic condition in And what central banks could do during this time Certainly, you know, we should you know when the sun is shining we should be taking care of the basement and the roof And put together, you know from a regulatory perspective and from central bank policy perspective The policies and regulation that are meaningful and sensible in Europe, you know I live in Paris now and observe and follow all the developments in you know, South North divide the critical issue for ECB is to phase out of QE as soon as possible and I'm a little concerned that there you know timid steps been taking in that direction and people are still You know worried about what's going to happen, but this is the best Environment economically we we have in Europe. We will not have better And also, you know politically in France, there is such a good atmosphere with Macron's Election so this is the time to do it because that the QE has been obfuscating the reality of That sustainability in in Europe, you know from that management expert perspective It's mind-boggling how we would Why we would not be phasing out of it as soon as possible. So I think that at least for Europe that would be my vote Seem virtually certain central banks are going to get cautiously in the current environment in any case. So it's I suppose there's some some concern, but I don't know if anybody my perception was not widely shared that They could be precipitating Some kind of a crisis soon And I want to share with you some personal view on the regulatory agenda to answer the question What regulatory should do? I think that they should complete the ambitious process that we started after the crisis and We enumerate the initiatives They were not completed for example on separation side of activities Neither Dodd-Frank or Vickers or Lincoln and was completed on the banking union side in Europe It's the same only only the single Supervisory mechanism was in place. No resolution Which is completed and no insurance deposit at all on the macro potential policy side It's a very useful agenda, but it was not fully operational on the incentive side There is no so much regulation of pace or bonuses and on the shadow banks They There's a taking more and more place and it is not Regulated and even from the French perspective the taxing financial taxes was completely Abundant and I want to add some risk assessment elements the global financial financial cycles are Interacted banks are even bigger than before the crisis and the nexus between banks and sovereign is also Wider since banks bought so much Souverance in addition to that the depth level is very high It was also the global financial stability report of the IMF told us and we can expect some bubble science on mini segments of national markets from Areal estates to Bitcoin and credit to currencies to bonds and stocks so all to say that if we have a crisis in the next few years, it will be more harmful because the Interest rates are very low and the balance just was bigger by historical standards and in addition to that We don't have any fiscal space and finally the cooperation mode is not here. We know that Trump appointed the Randal Quartz, which is a next banker or from the financial sphere to as a financial regulation She and also we have a power yesterday or the day before which is from the Maybe from the bank curse community. So so all in addition to French Position regarding the harmonization of risk model Harmonization so I'm very pessimistic on future. Thank you I mean, I was gonna step back a little bit and address the question that you asked before about What the broader risks are and this is not about whether central banks are doing the right or wrong thing now I think they've been partially doing the right thing, but I think we all recognize that life's full of trade-offs and International finance is no exception that we have an integrated international financial system And if we've learned anything from the past couple of hundred years that that Internet and integrated international financial system is prone to crises We don't know where the crises are likely to come from but we do know what some of the sources of weakness are Both in theory and in practice. The first is we've identified. I think scholars have identified the Gross financial flows are typically associated with potentials for losses of confidence Which then raise liquidity questions because basically there is no liquidity because they can deal with with a loss of confidence And that's what we learned from 2007 2008, you know as Gary Gorton has I think explained extremely well. We had a run on the bank Except that intermediation is now through the market So instead it was a run on the markets and we are still in a position where markets can be run if confidence is lost We don't know what this what the ultimate source or what the initial source will be I don't think anyone would have expected subprime to be the particular subprime was only the tiny catalyst I mean there were underlying weaknesses in the international in American European international financial system that subprime revealed We don't know what might be the catalyst for a next crisis. It could be non-performing loans in in China it could be the European situation despite what mr. Livi that long has said I'm not entirely convinced that That 70% isn't I'm not sure. We're at 70% I'd say more like 40% I think there are real questions about whether the resolution mechanism is sufficient in its current form to deal with a serious crisis I think that we've got certainly some indications that when push comes to shove National government step in and override the agreements that have been worked out at the level of the of the banking union and politics is going to Is is going to rear its ugly head or pretty head, whichever you may think about it. It should a crisis return I think that there is some indication of froth in the asset asset markets the cyclically Adjusted price earnings ratio currently in the US is double what it was at the height of dot-con boom And the debt load on the consumer side has increased continually over the last five years I'm not sure that's cause for concern, but I'm not willing to say that it's not cause for concern So I guess what my my underlying point is there are sources of weakness in national regional and the global financial system that could Moving forward, I'm not talking about the next three months looking forward with the next series of years cause difficulties And the reason I think that's important to point out is what the Othagnol and others have mentioned Which is we face? I think a very different underlying set of conditions in the international financial order today, which is that we have an administration in Washington It is not committed to global cooperation and is not committed to the current institutional structure and is not committed to working together with our Financial and trading partners should difficulties break out now One could argue that the the force of events will will require Cooperation, but I'm not so sure that things will work as well next time around as they did in 2008 And and as we started off by saying things went as well as could have been expected in September October November of 2008 that was with an administration and A income with an outgoing in an incoming administration that seemed quite committed to global cooperation We have an administration now, which is not committed to global cooperation Certainly not on trade and increasingly not on financial regulation and finance more generally and in microeconomic policy so I worry that if and when the next crisis comes and it's almost certain that there will be a next crisis that intervention by the major powers and in particular by the US will be more destructive than constructive and That's what worries me. So you asked what worried me. That's what worries me so when I was doing the forecasting at the World Bank I was I Suffered two crisis Both of which were completely unforeseen At least to the mainstream, which was the Asian financial crisis and then the And then the the great financial crisis of 2008 2009 So this experience, but you'll correct me if I'm wrong convince me and we were that's all we were doing We were looking. I mean just to show you all for the competence We were we were looking all the time for these issues and Maybe not as a seriously as the people at the front, but we had our job to do and so that kind of convinced me that The next financial crisis or financial crisis in general is almost by definition almost Totalogically is the surprise In the sense that if it wasn't a surprise It wouldn't be the crisis. I mean people would be taking steps Well in advance and what happens is when it materializes it doesn't materialize all in one go But it's kind of too late by the time you see it, you know, even if you see Before the worst happens three months beforehand or four months before and it's too late the the all the all the bad loans or whatever it is has built up and I need to be correct. So so I think If you didn't you don't need this for me, but modesty is Is is the good guy here? One point I want to make is that I have been very worried about all the quantitative easing and low interest rates and Etc that this would actually create these Another condition like this as I scan and I and I look I Right now I don't see but of course I don't expect to see where the huge problem is Certainly I don't see it in the equities Etc very simply because the people who are buying the equities buy a lot You know either households or funds. They don't have the big leverage problems. It's a very transparent Sort of thing. Some people will lose a lot of money. They're idiots And some people will lose a lot of money who think they're very smart But overall it doesn't look to me like, you know, one of these highly leverage highly non-transparent situations like the Subprime crisis I was also worried about the emerging markets That they'd get this wall of liquidity and there are of course issues in this way But overall, you know, the capital flows through emerging markets are really quite restrained Have been quite restrained. There are a lot of things that the emerging markets has done as you know flexible exchange rate domestic top-down markets that have lessened the risk if I was If you push me now when the very little confidence to say where where am I worried actually I'm less worried in the markets I'm worried in the government and And in fact, I wanted to ask from the beginning What is the secret I've heard this story many times I want to hear it again because I never understand it What is the secret of Japan? and and So do we learn from Japan that we can have 225 percent last time I looked Public debt to GDP and zero interest rates Zero long-term interest rates. Do I learn from Japan that don't worry about the United States? Doing a 1.5 trillion additional that in please deficit In in the new tax package, don't worry about Italy. Don't even worry about Greece Is that what I learned from the Japanese experience? And as I understand that a lot of the debt is owned in Japan Which means that a lot of the debt is also owned in the Japanese banks and that's what I worry about Well, the last point you made Is the point that many pundits Were referred to as a comforting element I doubt it Many I experienced too many banking crisis since 1980s You know Mexico Brazil Latin America and the 90s, you know You know domestic holders of assets You know captive flight always so Japanese investors they all you know When crisis was looming or in the offing around the corner at least then they start selling their bonds So domestic Holdings of GGB's will not Or should not be regarded as a comforting element. That's my view but Why Japanese debt is so high and interest rates are so low It's because simply because of deflationary mindset there Deflation is there so it will continue a long time In the end what what would happen? There are only three scenarios one is Happy scenario growing out of the debt Japan's economy, you know All of a sudden begins to grow very fast sustainable basis and You know getting rid of deflation and growing debt. That will be a happy story second Japanese government defaults on their promise. This is highly unlikely Even after World War two Japanese government Continued to pay out the debt. They accumulate they they they issued at the time of Russo-Japanese war In 1905 I still remember even in the 70s Japanese government continued to You know repay the debt The last one is hyperinflation Of course, this is a red repudiation sort of So there are only three scenarios But all those scenarios seems not an immediate You know outcome so people just hang loose. That's what it is the question way down there as Yuri said essentially crisis are unpredictable and But here when we were looking at the 2007 2008 crisis people Were at that time in 2005 2004 worrying about the crisis happening in the emerging markets and The crisis happened in the developed countries Or in the advanced economies and the globalization made it such that it was more global Actually when I hear you speaking you And I might understand you wrong But you all seem to be saying that the next crisis will happen in the advanced countries And that's the advanced countries would not be equipped enough or willing enough to address The causes of the crisis or to try to smooth the impact of the crisis but What about the crisis happening in the emerging markets or and and do the emerging countries have the abilities to Respond to the crisis to do something about I'd like to have your opinion on that. Let's assume it goes the other way Okay, I have an opinion that looks like Daniel wants to say something go ahead Let's respond to you I think that for many years people have forgotten about the fact that crisis do not discriminate When we had the great depression those economies were The most developed economies in the world and we had a great depression so that's not the issue the issue is that When when the crisis hit emerging markets, they expect it to be assisted to be helped by the ifis and by the developed economies Of course, if you know emerging economies is small one, that's fine But if you have to deal with China That's going to bring I mean that can bring the whole economy down global economy down the tube But the big issue is that it's not like we have Ordinary crisis like an episode of the crisis. We have a recession in the developed world and then we have a recovery and so on There are structural changes fundamental changes. Think about the level of debt both public and private And and I'm not referring to the United States where you have where the economy funds itself primarily through capital markets. I'm referring to Europe The legacy issue which is not the self-willed in your area you have not addressed the fundamental Issues of its architecture. We have a cyclic recovery. This is not like a recovery which is going to stay It's a cyclic recovery which is supported Basically by very cheap money. It is true that Substantially hard interest rates are not going to To be I mean, it's I think the ECB will be very reluctant To raise I mean its policy rates in the years to come it will deal with the program the unconventional policies So If we do not address these fundamental issues, I mean the legacy the level of debt the poor architecture of the euro area The other in your If we cannot address the issue of income distribution Think in recent years central banks the IMF Bank of England ECB have Paid a lot of attention to income distribution. This is mind-boggling. I mean imagine a decade ago telling The top guys at the top at the head the fat or people at in the ECB or in the Bank of England You should think about income distribution. You should pay attention and this is not an academic exercise This is very pragmatic because if you do not have social stability in society You're not going to have economic stability if you if you don't have economic stability You're not going to have financial stability And ultimately I'll stop on this note. I think we were not addressing major weaknesses The finance the way finance does work We do not I think we should reduce much more leverage Banks can be very destabilized as actors in the economy The whole of finance can be very destabilizing the fact that we do not have policy coordination The global economy that can be very destabilizing. So what we need is very simple systems Very simple very transparent no portion of finance should be beyond the territorial regulation and supervision Otherwise So Coming to close me say a few words about the question about emerging markets all the major emerging market crises Modern my modern times. Let's start with the but can we start with the the so-called the Latin-deck crisis of their early 80s Let's go to the Mexican peso crisis the Asian currency crisis every one of those was a reflection of instability in advanced economy policies and Rather than something self-generated by by the emerging markets What happened was after these repeated shocks emanating from the Advanced economies at the very least the these economies followed dare I say it advice to clean up their financial systems to make their exchange rate systems flexible and With solid banking systems and flexible exchange rates that didn't that didn't insulate them from broader macro trends But it did keep them out of the out of the subsequent crises. So For example details, but Asian Asian currency crisis it was if the preconditions were well foreseen the at least in the private sector the issue EG Thailand was was recognized as a likely Candidate for crisis the question was what were they going to do about it? That was the unknown My my view is they decided to have a crisis. I don't want to bore you with the details And they warned their bankers and their bankers got out of town and left basically Japanese banks holding the bag Okay, Europeans first, but also Japanese fair enough. Yeah, also, okay. Yes, okay No, no because on the on the official side on the official side because the official side didn't see the Interconditions that were that were laid out through the East Asian dollar standard namely You could go on and on but it's just for everybody else But basically it to the to the official them the two things happen one it appeared First Thailand then you know then the Philippines is like bombs exploded all over here and then seemed Uncoordinated to the private sector. It was I see the pattern and I'm not going to be the sucker to hold the bag everywhere else, right? Okay, but here's the second part that wasn't recognized and isn't recognized even today and that is there is no crisis prevention instrument in international finance that the IMF which has essentially only crisis resolution instruments Available to it. There's this idea that there's somehow because there's a financial safety net. It's it is crisis prevention, but it is not and There have been attempts to create crisis prevention instruments Which would have to be insurance like instruments in a world of securitized finance and even today there is no official willingness to create those kind of mechanisms and it basically Colleagues here who have been central bankers That that the institution you would think of would play that role as international monetary fund is viewed by central banks There's a fiscal and fiscal agency not a monetary agency and they'll be there. Let's put a play They're loathe to grant Powers that look like money creation powers to a fiscal agency like the IMF So that's that continues to be a problem On the other hand on the other in the wake of the crisis the FSB has acted partly Number one the banking system is much more capitalized than it ever was before because even the bankers recognize the system was way Undercapitalized so I think with or without regulation Increased capitalization. There's been reduced the If you remember the something called the senior supervisors group hardly anybody does But they issued helpfully issued a report in October 2009 saying by the way the risk management systems of the major of most of the major International banking institutions were inadequate to control the risks that they were actually running My reaction was thank you very much It would have been more useful to have pointed this out before the crisis rather than after the crisis But now banks go through stress tests that are burdensome very administratively burdensome and costly stress test Etc. So the notion that the system is no safer than it was before I think is is not Simply to dismiss all that out of hand on the other hand what we've heard. I think on the panel First of all that the That the reforms are incomplete I Think there is a little disagreement Daniel what you said is something the IMF concluded certainly in 2008 which was that the perimeter of regulation was poorly drawn in the systemically relevant institutions financial institutions were left outside the perimeter of regulation that the There was a lack of resolution mechanisms Etc. So and I would say that we would probably all agree that that process is not complete As Andre told us of what needs to be done just to even complete the banking union in Europe let alone to Capital markets union etc. So does that leave as vulnerable to potential crisis? I think I'll bet everybody would agree Yeah, it could happen. They're not gonna say that we've we've solved all all those problems So ways to go At the same time as I say, I think what I what I heard in general was These risks may exist And you can even think of triggers that create those risks But chances are that the near-term it looks pretty much okay And it doesn't look like any official from the official side There are going to be actions that will upset the apple cart although among others Jeffrey has given us some scenarios that That are not inconceivable That could could produce results that are More worrisome than that Now invite my panelists if there are any Final comments that you want to make that we have we have neglected Oh, please One thing you didn't mention is the limited capability of the filler reserve over Possible bailout of non-bank entities because of Dodd-Frank obviously As you correctly pointed out banks are Now more much more capitalized than Of course at the time of the re-emerge crisis, but even in comparison to a few years ago And as I said credit risk taking has been pushed to shadow banking system and He mentioned that black rock covers 5.5 trillion assets and the management I'm not specifically speaking of black rock or any other asset management companies, but if anything goes wrong Which has systemic implications? And yet further reserve will be unable unable to You know address the situation. That's really really a big concern The reserve is now explicitly Prohibited from extending credit to non-bank entity Yeah, I'm gonna say that Yeah, never never say never when it comes to well as I wait, but it's Yes, but it's subsequently been demonstrated. That wasn't strictly speaking true That it was a matter of they decided they didn't need to and therefore they didn't It I always That's totally unfair Tom Baxter general counsel to the New York Fed. He made a testimony to the Congress in 2009 and he specifically mentioned a few episodes and You know If the UK authorities Told Other central banks and regulators that the Buckleys will not be able to buy out Lehman Brothers If they had said that on Friday or Saturday Then the situation would have been very different from what actually happened But I think the UK authorities said at the last moment Sunday, that was too late That's right, you know for AIG if it a reserve created made in made on lane two Yeah, there's turns at the time my what I would say is When when the Secretary of the Treasury asks his deputy What's my downside here if we don't act? What's the worst that could happen and the deputy says mr. Secretary? I have no idea, but it could be the end of the earth Then astonishing amount of other people's money becomes available so we don't find out what the downside is But but but that's but that's no way that's no way to run a railroad Or a financial system, so let it let us hope but as I say My guess is even today most people think the for example the IMF is the systemic firemen And that it must have tools to prevent fires and the answer is no They only have tools to put out fires after they've broken out and not enough and not enough of them correct Fact that was well wait The other way around it was set up Because of the Great Depression But we did have a great recession any rate guys Thank you all very Administratively burdensome and costly stress test etc. So the notion that the system is no safer than it was before I think is is not is Simply to dismiss all that out of hand on the other hand what we've heard I think on the panel is first of all that the That the reforms are incomplete I think there is little disagreement that you know what you said is something the IMF concluded certainly in 2008 which was that the perimeter of regulation was poorly drawn and that systemically relevant institutions financial institutions were left outside the Perimeter of regulation that the There was a lack of resolution mechanisms Etc. So and and I would say that we would probably all agree that that process is not complete As Andre told us of what needs to be done just to even complete the banking union in Europe Let alone to implement capital markets union etc. So does that leave as vulnerable to? Potential crisis I think I'll bet everybody would agree Yeah, it could happen. We're not going to say that we've we've solved all all those problems So a ways to go At the same time as I say, I think what I what I heard in general was These risks may exist and You can even think of triggers that could create those risks But chances are that the near term looks pretty much okay And it doesn't look like any official from the official side There are going to be actions that will upset the apple cart although among others Jeffrey has given us some scenarios that That are not inconceivable That could could produce results that are More worrisome than that now invite my panelists if there are any Final comments that you want to make We have neglected Please One thing You didn't mention is the limited capability of the Federal Reserve over Possible bailout of non-bank entities because of Dodt Frank obviously As you correctly pointed out banks are now more much more capitalized than Of course at the time of the ribbon crisis, but even in comparison to a few years ago And as I said credit risk taking has been pushed to shadow banking system and You know He mentioned that black rock covers 5.5 trillion assets and the management I'm not specifically speaking of black rock or any other asset management companies, but If anything goes wrong Which has systemic implications and Jet for the reserve will be unable unable to You know address the situation that's really really a big concern The reserve is now explicitly Prohibited from extending credit to non-bank entity Yeah, I'm gonna say that Yeah, never say never never say never when it comes to Well as a Wait, but it's Yes, but it's subsequently been demonstrated that wasn't strictly speaking true that it was a matter of they decided They didn't need to and therefore they didn't didn't mind it. I always That's totally unfair. Oh, okay. Sorry. I retract that Tom Baxter general counsel to the New York Fed. He made a testimony to the Congress in 2009 and he specifically mentioned a few episodes and If the UK authorities told other central banks and regulators that the Barclays will not be able to buy out Lehman Brothers if they had said that on Friday or Saturday Then the situation would have been very different from what actually happened, but UK authorities said at the last moment Sunday, that was too late That's right, you know for AIG if it a reserve created made in made on lane 2 Yeah, there's turns at the time my what I would say is When when the secretary of the Treasury asks his deputy What's my downside here if we don't act? What's the worst that could happen and the deputy says mr. Secretary? I have no idea, but it could be the end of the earth Then astonishing amount of other people's money becomes available so we don't find out what the downside is But but but that's but that's no way that's no way to run a railroad Or a or a financial system, so let it let us hope but as I say My guess is even today most people think the for example the IMF is the systemic firemen And that it must have tools to prevent fires and the answer is no They only have tools to put out fires after they've broken out and not enough and not enough of them correct Fact that was well wait The other way around it was set up Because of the great depression But we did have a great recession any rate guys. Thanks very much. Thank you all