Okay, part four, time to make our first shape in Maya. And this is going to be something that will represent a floor in our little room. So first thing I want to do is make sure that we are on the modeling menu set. So that's this one here. Make sure you're on modeling. And also make sure you're on the modeling shelf, the poly modeling shelf, so that we're on the same page moving forward. In Maya, there are lots of different ways to do everything. There are at least three ways, I think, to do anything. So I'm going to try and show you different ways. I'm not aiming to show you necessarily the best or fastest. I'm just trying to introduce you to lots of different things so that you've got a good understanding and then you can make your own decisions. With that said, the first thing we're going to do is create a polygon plane, which is just like a flat 2D square. I'm going to do that from the create menu. So if we go to create up here, you'll see that you've got polygon primitives and we want to create a plane. And you will see that that is created on the grid in the center of the grid in your viewport. The next tool I would like to introduce you to is the resize tool, which is this one here, the scale tool. So you can click on that or you can press R on your keyboard. The reason it's R is because these first four tools, one, two, three, four, are the top four keys on the top row of your keyboard. So it's Q, W, E and R. And that's why the scale tool is set to R. Okay, so when you turn that tool on, you will see that you get all these different manipulators and they all do something different. So they're color coded and that should show you, using this thing in the bottom corner here, it will tell you what they relate to in terms of which axis. So if I drag on this red one, that's gonna scale it on the X axis and then I'll press ctrl and Z to undo that. I can scale it on the Z axis and I could try scaling it on the Y axis, but it won't do anything because this is just a 2D shape. What we can also do is we can scale it on two axes. Now in this case, if I scale it on the green one, that means that it will scale on the other two axes. So it will keep Y the same but scale on X and Z. So if we do that, there we go. And the same for these, but again, because this is only a 2D shape, it doesn't work the same. And then the last one is this one in the middle is all axes at once. So if we click and drag on that, that's what it will do. So you can see that that now is going up to about the size of the grid is what we're gonna go for just as a rough guide. So that is the scale tool, but I also want to show you that you can resize by typing numbers in as well if you want to do that. So what we need to do is get the channel box open. So because we opened the modeling workspace, that's now disappeared. To get it back, what we're gonna do is press control and A on the keyboard and press it a couple of times and it will pop up. And what I'm gonna choose to do is just drag it over here. In fact, let's put it there. I'm gonna drag it so that we get a tab here. So I've now got attribute editor, modeling toolkit and channel box all placed over here. We can see that it's called pplane one. This is its name here and it's got some attributes. So it's currently size to 24.004 units on mine. And what I would like it to be is 25 exactly, just because that seems to be the size that the grid is set to. So we're set it to 25 by 25 by 25. That is actually a little bit bigger than the grid. Maybe the grid's set to 24, 24 by 24 by 24. Yeah, that's better. So that's now the same size as the grid. Lovely. The last thing I want to do then, now that we've resized it in a couple of different ways is just show you how to rename it. You should rename everything as soon as you create it in my because you can quickly get hundreds of shape that you don't know what they're called. So trying into the habit of renaming things as quickly as you can every time you create something. So what I'm going to do is just click here and it's called pplane one. I'm going to rename that to Floor, which seems a good name for it because it is in fact a floor. And just while I'm here, I'll show you one more thing. We've got this input section. Clicking on an inputs does nothing, but if you click on polyplane one, it brings up some settings. So again, you can resize it here to the width and height and you can also set how many subdivisions it's got. That's these lines that divide it into smaller squares. And for this, because it's just going to be a flat floor to save on geometry, I'm going to set it to one and one. And you can see there are now no subdivisions on there. That then is our floor. We're done with that. I'm happy with it. It's the best goddamn floor I have made all day. And I have made tons of floors. So yeah, we've done well. We are really, really motoring through this. Well done. Right, next one, we're going to be getting to grips with navigating in Maya. So how we move around the scene. So rotating, zooming, panning, dollying, all that good stuff. So if you're excited about controlling a camera in 3D space, I know I'm going to see when the next video. Game Dev Academy is graciously supported by these absolute legends. If you'd like to offer your support, then check out our Patreon page using the link in the description below.


You know, for anybody that's watching online right now from India, I'd also have to mention that you may feel a little bit lonely right now because I do believe almost every single citizen from India is in Washington, D.C. this week. We've got the delegation from the Ministry of Finance, the major health event that Kieran Mazumdar Shah and others were at yesterday at Carnegie. There's a civil aviation delegation, other members of parliament and such. So it's quite an India week, a tour de force here in Washington. And I think this day compared to a year ago, the mood is considerably more positive. Now the numbers, as we talk about the ACON relationship are pointed exactly in the right direction where we'd like to see. U.S.-India trade is up by 4 percent. Foreign direct investment into India is up by about 40 percent over the last 12 months. And foreign institutional investment is up about 400 percent, so 4, 40 and 400. So directionally that's terrific. But is that the level that it could be? And what are the kinds of things that we should be working on to try to pick that up to a new level? And what's the impact? Why is it that we're trying to work on policy reform and increasing investment in trade? And that's what we're going to talk about today. And to talk about that and to help frame it, we're going to look at three of the major initiatives the Modi government has been talking about, skills development. How can we grow if there's not enough people ready to take those jobs if and when they become available? Part cities. And lastly, make in India. What's the prospects of this major campaign the Modi government has initiated? To get the ball rolling today, let me start by welcoming and introducing up to the lectern Dr. John Hamry. You know Dr. Hamry is the president and CEO of CSIS since January 2000, served before coming here in several senior roles at the U.S. Department of Defense. Lastly is the deputy secretary of defense. And I'd also say that he is a bit of an entrepreneur at heart as well. I joined CSIS just a year ago and I find that what he brings to this place so far, looking for the great ideas that the staff come up with and trying to leverage technology and every tool available to try to promote those ideas. So I think he'd have done a pretty good job next to Dr. Wadwani in Silicon Valley because he's really got the heart of an entrepreneur and it's a pleasure to work here. So Dr. Hamry. Thank you, Rick. Thank you. No, no, no. Thank you. Rick started off by saying that he was impressed by the weight and the gravity of the people who are here today. Well, I represent the weight and you all are the gravity and I can hardly wait to hear what you all are going to say. I'm going to learn a lot from you. Thank you very much for coming. First before we begin, when we have public events like this, we always begin just with a little safety announcement. Nothing's going to happen. I'm here to guarantee that. But I'm also the responsible safety officer. So I'd ask you to follow my directions if I ask you to do something. The exits are going to be right here. We're going to go out. The stair is right to my right. We're going to go out and across the street to the Beacon Hotel and out by drinks for everybody. So we're going to be fine. So don't worry, but do follow me if anything does come up. Let me say, you know, the secret motto of every think tank is, oh, no, no. It's much worse than you think. I mean, we make a great living off of doom, you know? And I think I've got three other conferences going on here at CSIS right now. And they're about some dire, terrible thing that's going on. I'm so glad that we can have a conference where we're talking about opportunity. When things are buoyant and getting better. And that's the case. This is what's happened. I think Prime Minister Modi's arrival has really transformed the landscape. It's given a sense of energy and lift and direction at a time when we need it. India needs it, of course. America needs it. I think we're needing opportunities to look at Asia in a different way. And everything right now is very dynamic in Asia as we know. We have, we're finally at the stage to move the Trans-Pacific Partnership. I think the president will submit the trade promotion authority sometime this week. We have, of course, our friends in China that are promoting a new infrastructure bank. And that has ignited a great deal of interest. And I think that we're starting to see finally India standing up and taking a much larger role. It should.  But it's been undervalued, underweighted in the national stage, the national landscape. I think that's now changing. We're going to get into that today. We're going to discuss that today. And I'm very glad that all of you will be a part of that. And Secretary Kumar, we welcome you. We thank you for being here. We thank you for your leadership at the Commerce Department. You're going to be leading the Strategic Dialogue later this year. And we're very proud of that and look forward to having a chance to hear you. So let me just, I will quickly get off the stage, but want to say thank you. I'll be back with you periodically.  But I do want to say how grateful I am to all of you that we have something that we can do. We have things we can build. And that's what this conference is going to be about. Now let me, my real role today is to introduce to all of you Ramesh Wadwani. I have, my time in knowing Ramesh, this remarkable man, is only about four years and maybe four and a half years ago. And one person brought us together who we all know this, Siddhartha Shadoy. If ever you want an optimist in life, talk to Siddhartha. And Siddhartha introduced me to Ramesh. Ramesh has been active in building a better world for many years. Not only for himself, it's a remarkable success as an entrepreneur, but he's converting and using his personal wealth to build good things for the rest of the world, especially for India and America. And I must say, it's an inspiration. I'm very grateful. He's on my board. He's a challenging director on my board. But he makes me do a better job every day and we're delighted that he's here today to open this conference. Ramesh, would you please come up? Thank you for being here. Ramesh Wadwani It's wonderful to be here and to see all of you. As you know, the economic agenda between the U.S. and India is now in the forefront as it should be, but it has not been for the last many, many years. So finally, I think we are taking the right steps in the right direction and I think it will be great for both countries as we will learn today. Just by way of background, I want to thank both the CSIS and the Anand Center for helping to organize today's event. And obviously, the pace of today's event will pick up towards the afternoon, starting with the bar at five o'clock, but working backwards, Finance Minister Jetli's presentation at 4.30, which will be the pre-bar celebration. The mission of the Wadwani Foundation is to accelerate economic development in the emerging economies with a particular focus on India. And we've had this mission for over 10 years when the foundation was started and I'm giving essentially all my wealth and my net worth back through the Wadwani Foundation. And our focus in accelerating economic development is primarily through entrepreneurship, small business growth, and skills development. So we have large scale initiatives in each of these areas. The scale that we are building is growing from the hundreds to the thousands to the hundreds of thousands. And now, for the first time, we feel somewhat confident in talking about strategies and plans to affect the lives of millions. We've started in India, but a few months ago, about a year ago, we also launched initiatives in Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. And before the end of this year, we would like to kick off similar initiatives in entrepreneurship, skills development, and related areas in three African countries. So we are in the process of selecting them. We have to build a staff. Because we are trying to do things at scale, it's very difficult to work with NGOs in India because many of them are unable to scale at the rate at which we need them to scale. So we have a combination. We have a full-time staff of 100 people. And we also work with half a dozen of the better NGOs in India to achieve this kind of scale. I met Prime Minister Modi in September in New York when he was here. And I came away. It was about an hour meeting, very, very engaged. Even though he had 12 advisors on his side, the conversation was entirely 100 percent between him and me. And that's good, in the sense that he knew absolutely what he was talking about, and he was completely in command of the subject. It did seem to suggest that there wasn't very much oxygen for anyone else in the room. But it was a great conversation. And I came away with the impression that, first of all, he's very strongly pro-business. Secondly, that he's extremely high energy. Thirdly, he's willing to take risks and make commitments that previous Indian administrations have been unwilling to do. And fourthly, that he completely understands the importance of foreign direct investment and the engagement of the U.S. business community as a critical success factor in driving job creation and skills development in India. So in his mind, as it should be, these are very tightly connected together. One of the thoughts that I left him with, which he wasn't aware of previously, is that in a recent seven-year period, India had GDP growth of 40 percent. Not surprising, right? Six, seven percent a year, seven years, cumulatively 40 percent. But job growth was 1 percent. So we only created 2.7 million net new jobs in India during that same period. That means there's clearly a huge disconnect between economic planning for GDP growth and economic planning for job growth. Now, in the U.S., that disconnect, first of all, is much less. But even if it was large, it would be okay because the base employment is so large as a percentage of the population. In India, particularly in the organized sector, the need for job growth to be more or less equivalent to GDP growth is absolutely paramount, but on the other hand, is not the case. So the whole point of my discussion with him was around the kinds of strategies and initiatives that are required to fix this enormous gap. Even today, today's newspapers, for example, talk about the fact that Chinese growth will be six and a half percent a year, India's GDP growth will be seven and a half percent a year. If India's GDP growth of seven and a half percent a year is similar to qualitatively, what it was over the last seven or eight years, it means that job growth will lag significantly behind. And I think that would be catastrophic. Now, when Finance Minister Jetli talks this evening, he will be talking about the importance of India's demography and youth being translated into a dividend rather than a disaster, but it could go either way. And if you don't have enough focus on job creation and skills development, India's demographic growth could actually be a disaster. On the other hand, if India does things right, if the U.S. business community takes advantage of that opportunity, it could very much be a demographic dividend, which is, of course, what we are hoping for. So there are a number of key initiatives. There's the whole idea of job growth planning, simultaneous with GDP planning and connecting the dots, which has not been the case before. There's the acceleration of entrepreneurship to create millions of new jobs. There's the need for innovation and small business, so we can add another 10 million jobs. The skills development, because sometimes the availability of skills is in itself a job creator because of the cause-and-effect relationship. So helping to skill 25 million people over the next five years, that's going to be a very important growth driver. But ultimately, India is going to have to connect the dots between creating 25 million new jobs over the next five years and filling those 25 million jobs with very high quality human capital. Now, for large businesses in the U.S., that may raise the question of why do we care? And the answer is you should care very much because this is exactly what opens up the opportunity for foreign direct investment in India. So I was in India in February. I met four of the key ministers in Prime Minister Modi's government, and I came away with three impressions. The first is they're energized, so whereas the ministers in the previous cabinet were essentially half asleep and half unsure about what their future would be. Here, I had the feeling that these guys, these ministers, were feeling strongly pressured by the Prime Minister to work long hours, do good things, and actually be measured by outcomes and not just by words, which again has been part of India's history. So the sense of energy was actually quite energizing for me as well. The second thing is that many of them are starting to think about initiatives that will make a difference, and the third is each of the four of them indicated a strong desire to work with U.S. business because they realize that between the U.S. government and U.S. business, that's where the magic of the relationship lies between U.S. and India. It is not just government to government. And on the business side, there are lots of opportunities in India. So one very good example is the Make in India initiative where the Prime Minister and a number of his other ministers are committed to expanding manufacturing, but in consideration for that, they're also beginning to open up investment rules that will make it easier to invest in India. So it started in the insurance industry. There's been progress in the defense industry. And I think progressively you will see a lot of progress on the relaxation of the regulations that I think hurt the performance of the Manmohan Singh government. Similarly, the Smart Cities Initiative, great opportunity for innovation, great opportunity for U.S. companies and companies from other countries to invest in India. And through a combination of initiatives like Make in India, Smart Cities, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, I think we can achieve the best of both worlds, which is great business opportunity for American companies and job creation and skills development in India. So what could be better than that? And that's the spirit of today's conference. And of course, we're all looking forward to what Finance Minister Jetli has to say, but I think you will find his remarks in some ways, you know, will cover, will focus on this particular topic. One final word, the Badwani Foundation has, as you know, funded a policy chair at CSIS. This is of course, Rick is the policy chair, and Rick has been a key organizer of today's event. But we are also building up towards a major leadership event in September or October this year. It will be in Washington, D.C. And at that particular event, we hope to have perhaps 50 to 100 of the key policymakers from the U.S. And an equal number of policymakers from India, including critical ministers of Prime Minister Modi's government, as well as a number of Chief Ministers and the Secretaries and the staffs so that through this very active and engaged dialogue, we'll be able to move these initiatives forward at faster and faster speed. Thank you, sir. Thank you, Ramesh. Now it gives me great pleasure to introduce the chair of our other co-organizer for today's proceedings, Mr. T.N. Ninen. For those of you that have bothered to read any kind of business or recon article in the Indian press, he probably wrote it. So I can very much leave that part of a journalistic experience at that. But also chairing the Ananta Center. Ananta Center, of course, does events covering a very wide range of different topics, the arts, the sciences, but also business. And so having such an astute business journalist leader of the organization, they've proven to be exactly the right kind of partner for this type of event. So apart from his work with business standard, apart from his work with the Ananta Aspen Center, he also is chosen by his peers frequently to help lead their work as well. So he's president of the Editors Guild of India, chairman of the media committee at CI, and a variety of other roles kind of proving that, indeed, his leadership in the industry, his leadership on business issues has been critical at important times. So Mr. Ninen, please, I welcome you to the lectern. Thank you, Rick, and morning, everyone. Thank you for that introduction. And thank you also for helping to engage with this partnership and to take it forward and develop it in new ways. I would also like to acknowledge and thank Dr. Hamry and Mr. Adwani for the role they're playing and the leadership and drive they're giving to building this partnership, to doing events like this, and partnership with the Ananta Center as well as with India and the U.S. as a whole. I won't take long, but I do want to say that the new government has created a sense of purpose, and therefore there is energy, both domestically at home and in international relations, particularly in the bilateral relationship with the U.S. Everybody knows that this is a unique bilateral relationship, not just specifically because it's not just government to government. It's not just business to business, it's also people to people, and there is no other bilateral relationship which has all three elements as strong as they are. Within government to government, we have an astonishing number of sectoral dialogues that go on. The last count I think was 40 or thereabouts, in everything ranging from trade and investment to defense and security, science and technology, cyber security, space, agriculture, education, clean energy, you name it. And then on top of those 40 sectoral dialogues, we have interministerial consultations. So there is a range to this relationship which is quite unique. We do need to build depth as well. Bilateral trade is about $100 billion, and the President and the Prime Minister have agreed to try and take us up to $500 billion. That's an ambitious target. But I think the fact that the government in India has launched a whole series of initiatives does create opportunity. And the international diplomacy that Mr. Modi has launched is specifically focused on also creating a link to his domestic agenda. And the obvious example is the focus on building the physical infrastructure in the country and things like the railways where he's looking for partnerships with China, with Japan, with France most recently. He's looking at building a manufacturing base and he's opened up on direct investment for defense and of course on insurance a little more. He's looking for partnerships in urban development and creating smart cities. He's got a hugely ambitious program in clean energy. He's taken the target for 2022 for solar energy from 20 gigawatts to 100 gigawatts, which is astonishing. And then he's taken up the target for wind energy to 60 gigawatts. One, this makes a huge difference to India's ability to talk in the climate change negotiations multilaterally. Two, it creates opportunity for bilateral initiatives, trade, investment, and so on. So I think it's a good time for India and the US to be talking across a whole range of issues. We are now more or less acknowledged by the fund, the bank, and almost all international observers as being the fastest growing economy in the world, overtaking China. It doesn't say very much when the Chinese economy is four times our size, but at least you begin to start showing some real momentum. The Swadwani spoke at length on several issues and all of those comments are very pertinent and relevant. I do have a slightly different view on the employment question, which is that if one sees it in purely macro numbers, the net addition to the workforce each year is about 8 million. Now, that sounds like a very large figure. But the overall workforce is 480 million, so the actual growth is about 1.6%. Now, for an economy growing at 7%, it's not that difficult to create 1.6 million growth in employment. And then if you leave out agriculture, which is half, and say all the growth has to come in non-agriculture, which is what it is, even then the growth in employment has to be only 3% a year. And it is a challenge and it is a daunting task, but it is not the impossible task that very often people portray it as. I think the fact that we are looking at creating a manufacturing base is central to this challenge, that our manufacturing sector is only about 17% of GDP. That's not, I think it's also important to recognize what international comparisons are, that Brazil's share of manufacturing in employment is 17%. Russia's share of manufacturing in employment is 17%. So the only BRICS country which is an outlier is China, which is way out. And then there are several East Asian economies which are tied into the Chinese manufacturing base, which are about 24%, 23%. So it's not that we've completely failed in manufacturing, but it is true that the opportunities are enormous, that our own policies have held us back, and there is no reason why we cannot be like the East Asian countries and now 25% of our GDP come from manufacturing, which is the official goal. So with a sense of purpose across the government, with ministers under pressure from the prime minister to be seen to be delivering and doing things, and with the macroeconomic picture improving in every way possible, the fiscal situation, I don't know what Mr. Jetty will say in the afternoon, but if you take the central and the state fiscal deficits combined, all the focus has been on the fact that the central deficit is what it is, and that it's under control and it's fine, but it's difficult to try and shrink it further in the way he's looked at it. But you need to look at the gross national deficit, which is the central government and the state governments, and if you do it that way, this is one of the most significant corrections we've done in our fiscal picture, because the transfers to states is substantial, and despite that, the center's kept its deficit under control, so there is very real fiscal correction that's happened. Monetary policy is responding, the inflation rate is down, the counter-count deficit is under control, fortunately because of the oil price situation, so the macroeconomy is under control and there is new energy taking place, and if in the course of this new financial year for us, which runs from April to March, we're actually able to see investment pick up, which I expect will happen towards the second half of the year, we will be well on our way. So I think the context for the subject of this seminar today on building the bilateral relationship is that India's very well poised to be taking those initiatives, and I'd like to close those comments, and thank everybody present for being here, to see if we are delighted from the Ananta Center to be here as a partner in this with CIS, the Nardwani Foundation, and look forward to these deliberations, and thank you very much, Rick. Well, that's a pretty stunning start to today's discussions. As I sort of mentioned at the outset, if we were to do this conference I think a year ago, the mood would have been extremely different. Near the end of the UPA government, there were dramatic concerns that American companies were raising about cross-border tax issues, about patent issues, about local manufacturing rules, and also I think what we saw is slower progress on encouraging new reforms, FDI caps and things like that, and it triggered what I think we all saw in Washington as a pretty big backlash. There were congressional hearings, there's requests for the U.S. International Trade Commission to conduct surveys on how American companies see the business environment, whether or not it's gotten better or worse in India. So it really, I think, things began to escalate pretty dramatically and in a very negative fashion. Since the time I think that the election has taken place, I still personally find the mood in Delhi is still a little bit wait-and-see in Washington, I would say, kind of the same thing, but at the same time there has been, as our speakers have pointed out, movement on a number of issues. You know, even a thing like insurance, which moving the foreign investment cap from 26 to 49, and I think those of you that know me know that I've spent a lot of blood, sweat, and tears on that issue over the years, you know, it's a small issue, but to see that the government actually was going to spend political capital on something that is only so targeted on foreign investment and on changing the environment is a great signal, I think, for investors across the board that indeed, you know, the government's first priority is spending political capital on issues that will stimulate growth. Foreign equity changes in defense and a variety of other sectors, I think, too, have given a bit more enthusiasm and partially I think that's contributing to the strengthening of numbers that I mentioned during my opening. So, you know, I feel that there's been great steps taken. I mean the coal reforms, I don't think get nearly enough attention, but India imports about 1% of GDP in coal. There's coal in the ground, but they have to import 1%, because, you know, the way that the sector is structured, the companies just weren't getting it out fast enough to get to the places that needed to go. So, reforming the coal industry and allowing private companies to come in and foreign companies to come in, you know, these are, I think, some pretty substantive reforms, too, that may be a fall in a bit under the radar screen. So, I think that's a great setup for what we're going to discuss for the rest of the day. The speakers so far have been far more efficient than you typically see at conferences, so I think we got a little bit ahead of who is scheduled to be our next speaker, Catherine Novelli. But I see that Arun is here already. So, allow me to introduce our Assistant Secretary of Commerce, Arun Kumar. So, we'll jump the order a little bit here if that's okay with you, Arun. Great. So, Arun Kumar, many of you, I think, have already known, especially if you're coming to an India conference, he must be a very familiar person to you. So, he took over as the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Global Markets and as Director General of the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service. So, he leads America's trade and investment promotion efforts. And if any of you had the opportunity to attend or to watch the Select USA Summit last month, that was Arun Kumar. So, he's one person in this room. I can't complain about the organizational efforts about this conference because that was about 150,000 times as large. So, Arun has done even bigger events than this. I go back with Arun for quite some time. Arun was a member of the Board for KPMG and led the West Coast Operations and got them active on India. He was also a board member of the U.S. India Business Council at the time. So, I always feel I have to act on my best behavior since he's been overseeing my work for quite some time. So, Arun, please, welcome you to the lectern, sir. Thank you, Rick, for that very kind introduction and also for the opportunity for commerce to step ahead of state. It is very rarely that this would occur. So, it's also great to be here with Ramesh, whose accomplishments, intellect and humanity I greatly admire. And also his wicked sense of humor. You must have caught that in the description of his meeting with Prime Minister Modi. But discussions like today are very valuable for U.S. government and the private sector as the United States deepens a strategic and commercial relationship with India. So, let me start with a slice of history pertaining to the U.S. and India. U.S. diplomatic relations with India started in the commercial realm. In November 1792, President George Washington named Benjamin Joy, a merchant from Newbury Port, Massachusetts to the United States consul in Calcutta. The British government accepted him but only as a commercial agent because our convalescent just left Calcutta a few months before and the memories of convalescent defeat were still fresh in the British leadership of India. Well, today we are delighted that under our 44th president, our commercial and economic partnership with India is central to our relationship. While commercial ties between the U.S. and India date back, as I said, 220 years, the ability to optimize and grow this relationship has never been as high as it is right now. The reason I say this is because of the alignment between our countries along three dimensions. Incredible growth potential, robust economic policies, and deep motivation in spurting greater trade and investment. In fact, much of this is driven by the Indian economy. In terms of road potential, IMF estimates of India's growth at 7.2% this year and 7.5% next year suggest that India will soon become the fastest growing large economy in the world. The U.S., of course, welcomes India's growth. In terms of robust economic policies, Prime Minister Modi's electoral victory last spring has been seen by many observers as a message from the Indian people on the need to revive India's economy. And a piece of good news recently was that Modi's reaffirmed India's BAA3 rating and revised the outlook from stable to positive. So U.S. businesses too are hopeful about the changes in the business environment based on the initial steps that have been seen to date. For instance, a new government committee dedicated to fast-tracking American investments has already made a positive impression. Last month, the Indian Parliament, as you know, passed legislation allowing for more foreign direct investment in insurance and defense as referred to just a few minutes ago. And the U.S. business community is watching closely to see what happens when the land acquisition bill that will open investment by what happens with the land acquisition bill that will open investment by easing industry acquisition of land. In terms of deep motivation to spur greater trade and investment, India has to cater to the needs of a growing population, which is expected to exceed China's by 2030. That means


Welcome to Toffee TV it is the starting 11 show Newcastle United. This is Everton Frank Lampard's first game in the Premier League against a Newcastle side that have bought a lot of players so and we've bought a lot of players it's gonna be a very very interesting game and obviously we played in the Cup on Saturday and you know three of the five players we brought in in January were not available so that makes it interesting and Michelin comes up the only one of the five yet to start a game with Nathan Patterson sitting on the bench so lots of choices for the manager and although we do have injuries to the Corey and Ben Godfrey so let's get into it. In goal of course it is Jordan Pickford. Newcastle going to Newcastle playing against Newcastle hasn't always been the best experience for Jordan Pickford but let's hope this one is. Let's hope he's cool, he's calm, he's collected and he doesn't have to work to add. Let's hope and if he does let's hope he makes some good saves but obviously his distribution at the ball will be key what we saw from Saturday with Frank Lampard wanting to play out from the back and utilizing his ability on the ball so Jordan Pickford in goal. At right back I'm going to continue with James Coleman although he wasn't really playing right back at the weekend but I'm going for a flat back four in this one so I'm putting him in, wouldn't be a great place to start Nathan Patterson and I also don't think John Joe Kenny would start the game so and if he did I don't think it would be at right back and I think there'd be more chance of him actually starting a left back than right back but I'm going to go with James Coleman at right back. He had a good game I thought on Saturday so hopefully it continues and in the early days of a new manager you need your leadership, you need that mix, you need people who can be countered on and I think James Coleman is one of those people even though maybe his performances aren't always great I think he's never lacking in being a leader. At left back I'm going for Vitaly Michalenko, Gru Strong I thought on Saturdays the game went on, bit of a shaky start but he's going to have to play, he's our left back and I think he has to play games, I think he'll lean and I think he'll get better because I think he is a talented player I think he's just not quite up to the pace quite yet off the Premier League you know he's played in one Premier League game and two FA Cup games it's going to take him a little bit of time to get up to that speed so but he's got a player I think because he is our only real leftful player and we've got to leave him in there to get better and experience what it's like to be in the Premier League. Center backs, Yerri Mina, they would not have liked them to have played 80 minutes on Saturday but it just happened that he did but I think he was always penciled in for this game. Chris Wood is a tough opponent in the air you know he's dangerous off set pieces you know he's dangerous for the knockdowns he's great on crosses and Mina is got to be in there to combat that I think this would have always been the game that they've been looking at for the Premier League so for me he asked to start hopefully you know there is no issue with them from Saturday you're playing in this game you try and get something and then you see how he is for Saturday whether he can play it Saturday or not Leeds will not have anyone or do not have anyone like Chris Wood in this side where you need that ability at the back and off set pieces so Yerri Mina and next to him I've gone with Michael Keane it's either Michael Keane or Maitian Hallgate now Maitian Hallgate I think offers you a little bit more page bars but Michael Keane when he's confident and when he's in form he's a good player but what he's also good at is stepping out with the ball with the ball of his feet and moving into that space in front of the in front of the defense to get it into the midfield and I think that's what gives him the edge over Hallgate I think Hallgate thinks he can do that but I think actually Michael Keane can do that now obviously listen Keane again decent in the air it's the worry is you know if they play Saint Maximus as a number 10 which I expected they will that'll cause him the problems but he's decent on the ball and I think that's what might give him the edge over Maitian Hallgate at the moment. Into midfield Allen who was obviously very very good on Saturday thought he was brilliant and I thought the other players helped them by pressing as a unit we're gonna need him to be at his best picking up second balls winning tackles pressing and all the other things and driving forward with the ball because I think when he's got the ball he drives forward with it I think he's excellent so starting along came on Jay Gomez who I thought had an excellent game on Saturday this is gonna be slightly more difficult for him because we are away from home and he's going to be asked to be a little bit more defensive but on the ball on Saturday was fantastic and hopefully you can continue that you know we had something like 97 touches or something like that might be 93 97 isn't the 90s and you know he was excellent so everything went through a more game and we have to have that again it's always been the other side of him where he's been been an issue defensively can he defend can he can he press is up to the pace of the game we don't have too many options at the moment so for me I think he'll be left in there and he'll continue and I think if he's anywhere near as good as he was on Saturday then that'll be a real bonus for the team and inside in with them or a lot or just in front of him I'm gonna go for Delhi who you know it would be his debut I think he can make a three we'll need a three for me on on Tuesday against Newcastle and I think he he it's when we know how good he can be he just hasn't been that good recently for spares as he's had less and less game time as maybe they don't and as they wanted to be a little bit more defensive it is a risk for his first game and maybe maybe the manager look at something else maybe he'll continue with the three maybe I've got very very little information to go on at the moment in terms of our players you know in terms of him then Donnie van der Beek el Ghazi I've got very little information to go off so I'm just going off what I think at the moment so I'm gonna put Delhi Delhi in there to act as the third midfielder and someone who can drive with the ball and also someone who's good in possession someone who can help keep the ball someone who will you know help us control the game like we did on Saturday because that's obviously what Frank Lampard's looking to do so I've put Delhi in there on the right hand side I'm gonna go for Anthony Gordon thought he's excellent on on Saturday and once again pressing from the front and running a people with the ball Deeson Crosser you know looking to get shot off now looking to keep the ball and he deserves to be in this team at the moment he really does deserve to be in this team so he starts for me on the other side the Mardi Gray another one who always got something up his sleeve really has always wanted a people keep his control of the ball while running is fantastic it's absolutely fantastic and he can drop into me feel and pick the ball up and run at people and I think you know this season being fantastic hasn't he I know front I'm staying with Richard Charleston I thought he played well on Saturday I thought he done the work that the manager want to do dropping off and then looking to spin and get the ball over the top like he did for his goal and if he drops off a little bit deli Ali runs into the space then suddenly you've got another player adding to that with Gordon and Gray you know providing the providing the wit and the assists and and trying to get the ball into listen away game it looks probably looks altered altered attacking but I think deli Ali can be the third man in the midfield and not be just offensively but be be a little bit defensive as well by keeping the ball by keeping all of it and I think that's huge important we can defend better by having more of the ball and controlling the ball and I think that's the point of the sirens of delian and van der Beekert to keep all of the ball and control games of football and not let the opposition get ahead of steam and then we've got the likes of Dominic Alvin coming off the bench the likes of van der Beekert the likes of El Ghazi the likes of Townsend through all there through all options suddenly we've looked at the bench and you think that's a strong bench yes we're still a little bit short in sentiment field but we've got more options now so this is what I'm going for listen the manager might have a completely different game plan in his head but it's really difficult because Newcastle will have maybe three debutants and debutants in the side and it's hard to know what they'll go with but they'll probably still go for the 4-3-3 and and it's just gonna be very interesting game as the two teams time figure them out figure each other out so that's my start 11 let me know your thoughts in the comments what are you going for who are you starting let me know your thoughts make sure to give this video a like subscribe if you haven't already if you want more great videos daily live videos join us over on page and the link is in the description and it's on the screen right now see you later


Oh my lord, it's been so many years. Bruce Dickinson finally has released some new music. He has with Roy Z with me today. Jaws Lavery all the way in Germany. Yes, just go out of the shower. Nice. Nice. You're clean. You're clean for a review, right? Bruce Dickinson. After Golo Vragnarok. This is the first track off of the upcoming album. Mm hmm. The Mandrake Project, which will be released in the new year the exact day. Maybe you can see it there, but I don't have it in front of me. Thought I had it. Anyways, this is the new track. This is the first single to be taken from the album, a dramatic and epic track that introduces the world, not just to the music of the album, but to the compelling narrative that forms the basis of the Mandrake Project. The Mandrake Project is a dark adult story. Abuse and a struggle for identity set against the backdrop of scientific scientific and occult genius. Created by Bruce Dickinson, scripted by Tommy Lee and stunning illustrations by Stas Johnson. All right, right off the bat. What did you think? First impressions? You heard the song, you go, Bruce is back. I listened to it twice so far. Um, it's a mid tempo. Powerful song with a good chorus and a good hook. It's going to take a little bit more digesting than I've had time to give it because I literally just got it.  Or obviously, Iron Maiden. It certainly indicates that we're in for a fairly conceptual piece of work, the dreaded concept album. Because of Brick. But anyway, yes, it's good. It's very good, and it's going to get better with repeated listens and, you know, hearing a properly mastered file. So, yeah, it sounds to me, it sounds more like something of tyranny or souls than chemical wedding. OK, my first impression. All right. I mean, we should also mention who's in the band. And of course, we know that Roy Z is doing all the guitars. Tanya O'Callaghan is the bassist. Dave Moreno is drums and Mysteria is keyboards. Are you familiar with these people other than other than Roy Z? No, neither am I. I kind of I think I've been always waiting for Bruce Dickinson to come out with that perfect album. Like as much as I love chemical wedding, tyranny of souls, accident of birth. I don't find him as perfect albums. I think they're amazing. They're great albums. But I just feel I always get this feeling that he's got one knockout album that will be his legacy as a solo artist. And after hearing this song, I think he's on the right track. I haven't heard the rest of the album, just this one song. I don't know. I think there's something big about the production. I think I hear I'm not sure if it's downtuned or not. It might be slightly downtuned. What do you think? Generally, generally, when he works with Roy Z, they do take it down. You know, we will we'll see. I mean, Bruce Bruce likes to downtune. He always laments the fact that I'm made and like could terrified to do so. And they did it on one song and the sky didn't fall. He said so. But yeah, he definitely is a fan of tuning things down a little bit and making them a little bit heavier. And they even put bass strings on the guitars on the chemical wedding. So yes, I expect a heavy rock cabinet rumbler of a record, as we used to call him. You know, it's interesting. He sings the verse and it's very he's got that soundscape at the beginning, right? That sort of that build up. And then it goes into the verse. It's really, you know, that sort of neonites you're going to run, you're driving your car pedal to the metal kind of upbeat sound. And then he gets into this bridge and I was kind of thinking to myself, is he like changing key into a minor key at this point? Maybe the guitarist out there can tell me more, you know, the minds of music can tell me out there. But he sort of goes in this higher register on the bridge. And he sounds like he's singing, I don't know, in a minor key. Good, most good heavy metals in a minor key. That's the difference between a lot of these sunset strip bands that were very major key kind of rock jump around the room party rock and then, you know, things like Rainbow and obviously Sabbath and, you know, I made no exception. The minor key is the heavy metal. The darker side of heavy metal. The darker key, yeah. So there we go. It's a great song. What about the chorus? Typically an Iron Man were used to, you know, the band repeating the title of the song. I like that. I like that because in case you forget the name of the song, they'll remind you.  If you're going to die, you're going to die. Don't you think I can save you? Don't you think I'm a savior? Don't you think I could save your life? Being my favorite. Yes, the chorus, like a lot of Bruce's stuff would made in and without. It's just begging for a bit more background harmony and stacking those vocals in the chorus is a little bit more to make it pop. Otherwise they sound like verses with a singular vocal. I think he's got a double in there. I would love to hear that. But usually, therefore, it takes a couple of listens for the chorus to really get ingrained because there isn't that big highlighter pen over top of it in the form of a ton of stacked vocals to go, yes, this is the chorus. In case you didn't realize, here it is. But it's a great song. I love the chorus because to me, what you're just saying, it has those elements.  But it does have that. Well, kind of Madness is a good example of good use of harmony with an Iron Maiden. So is Wasted Years. There's numerous examples. There never been ones that are gonna overdo it and you're not gonna get like, you know, a Chicago type of harmonies in there. But it doesn't hurt in rock to have a couple of those in the chorus. I'm just trying to say that in this chorus, I find it's a big chorus. It's a melodic chorus. It's a catchy chorus. And because he doesn't have that can I play with Madness, you know, thirds and fourths in the chorus, he's got that keyboard in there which brings it out more and makes it big and more melodic and more memorable and more accessible, right? Yes. What about the guitar solo? Do you remember that part? Yeah, it's good. I mean, you know, it's a good guitar solo. I mean, Roy's, he's a brilliant guitar player and a great musician. And he's a good example of a guitar player that writes songs and riffs.  Those three things are far more important than your solo. So... That's a good point because that is a great segue and he does just that on the solo. Very remind me a little bit of a rage against the machine, Tom Morello, you know, pushing that pulsating. He's got that guitar effect, that pitch-shifting effect on the solo, but it's not a long solo. It's just short enough to your point. It's just a short suite and goes... Randy Rhodes, of course, being the ultimate in both worlds, both amazing solos and amazing songwriter. All right, so how would you compare this to Iron Maiden, with the exception of the downturn? The same way I would compare Turenia Sol's and Chemical Wedding in Accident of Birth to Iron Maiden, everyone sort of, not everybody, but a lot of people come out and say, well, these are the best albums Iron Maiden didn't make and haven't made since Power Slave or whatever, but they're actually very different. Iron Maiden have never, ever been as riff-driven now. I mean, Bruce's... That's a good point, that's a good point, right there. Bruce's solo stuff harkens back more to like the Tony Aomee, just really propelling the song along with a powerful, powerful riff.  Everything from Accident of Birth onwards. Well, I think that you nailed it because this is a riff-driven song. It's a car-driving riff-driven song, a neonite-ish sort of riff-driven, right? I mean, King and Crimson being a case in point from Chemical Wedding. I mean, there's an example of that riff-driven... You know what the trick was? Because the 90s was very much returning to the riff, getting, it's more rhythmical, bands like Tool and all that, but those bands lost all the melody, that's the problem. They had the riffs, but they lost the melody. Whereas when Bruce put out Chemical Wedding, Accident of Birth, it was riff-driven, which meant it could sit in the 90s in a contemporary way, but he didn't lose the melody. He kept the Maiden melody, or the heavy metal melody, or the heavy rock melody type. That was very typical of the 80s metal bands, particularly the band he came from, Iron Maiden, but it was coupled with the powerful riff. So that's what made it work. That's why a lot of younger people say, wow, I love Chemical Wedding. It's one of my favorite heavy metal albums, because it satisfies that, you know, people that want that driving riff along with a big chorus, that's just burst out of your speakers and grabs you. Yeah, yeah. And you know what I also really liked about it? There's a little bit of a spoken word, right before the chorus. There's a little bit of a break or a bridge. Yes. And it sort of brings out the concept nature of the song. And I think this is exactly how they stated in the press release that it sets it up. This song sets up the album perfectly. I mean, it looks, all signs are pointing to this being a concept album, which does worry me a little bit. Because I mean, Crimson Idol, amazing. Judas Priest, Nostradamus, not so amazing. But I'm sure Bruce knows better, so let's wait and see. All right, so what do you think about the whole conceptual artwork that, you know, that blue that? I haven't seen it. I've seen pictures of it on Facebook, but I haven't seen the, I haven't held it in my hand. I can't buy it anywhere. I wanted to order it from Amazon. It's gone. My local satin store doesn't have it. So, yeah. But you've seen Bruce sort of like, you know, in that? Yeah, I've seen the cover. But if something that's not the cover of the single, the single's got to be in. No, I'm talking about just the imagery of that we're seeing on Facebook. Lara Croft. Yes, yes, yes. That's right. That's Tomb Raider. Yes, yes. That's like her. So, so far, what do you think? What are your first impressions? What do you think? Nothing to worry about. I think we're good. I think it's going to be a decent, good, very respectable, presentable, and perhaps even seminally robust solo album from Bruce Dickinson. I love this song. I love every part of the song. I love the intro. I love the bridges. I love the solo. I just, I think this is a perfect way to start off, to kickstart off the campaign for his new album. And I think it's more organic. It's very, it sounds very car-driven, organic. Still, Bruce is not doing his, his Iron Maiden singing style. He's more of the Bruce solo album singing style, which, which less operatic, I shall say. OK, well, I like them both. But I like them both, but they're different. That's all. And that's it. All right, thanks everybody for tuning in, Charles. Let's, let's do our reaction video pose.


Hi everybody, Joe for Jazby's Case Breaks.com coming at you with 2021-22 Panini Crown Royale Basketball. Eight box, half case, pick your team number five, half case from a fresh case. Very big thanks everyone here for getting into the first half on a Monday. Second half coming up right after this in a different video if you're looking for that. Now if you see a little rooftop next to your name, that means you won that spot and that team random we did and the results of that we did the randomizer in a separate video as well if you're looking for that. Alright now let's see which eight we're going to do. That's why I do this check, there's two extra boxes right there. Alright so here's a group of eight, here's a group of eight right over here. So let's use that die right here. So we'll go one, two, three for that side, four, five, six for that side and it's two. One on this side right there and this side we will actually just leave right over here. Just off camera right next to me because that's going to be grade number six. You can see all those right over here. They're not going anywhere. Alright, here we go. One autograph one memorabilia card per box on average. Two of these cards down here. Use a blank card to slide the rest of the hits out or rest the cards out and we'll save those hits.  Detroit, that's Adam Kelly and the Pistons picked up Detroit straight up. 47 out of 75 and there is Joe Weisskamp, heirs to the Throne Relay. That's for the Spurs, that's for David B. And there's Knights of the Roundtable, Michael Porter Jr., 43 out of 99, Denver, Josh Proust with the nuggets. Alright, next box, Josh, if Michael Porter Jr. could say healthy, Jamal Murray too. Both of those guys could say healthy. Alongside the MVP, I think the entire Denver Nuggets playoffs look very different. Chris Taylor, two round homerun. Here is your NBA Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes, excellent season for him. That goes to Joshua. Joshua Edelitz and the Raptors, maybe we'll find some anchors and parallels with him. 5 out of 99, that is Sixers edition of Jimmy Harden. Michael Porter Jr. again. Yeah, right, Matt's like, hey man, if Porter can say healthy, that's been the issue since he watched him in college. There's Santi Aldama, heirs to the Throne. I guess that's kind of on, I mean the Nuggets knew that too going into the draft and they took that gamble, kind of had to give that a shot with a talent like him. A little crinkly on the penny sleeve here, but card is secure, Grizzly's Larry with the Grizz. And the autograph is Joe Harris for the Brooklyn Nets, 14 out of 99. Nets have to retool this offseason as well after a disappointing season. Petrie with the Nets. All right, next box, there's an Evan Mobley die cut rookie card. And a Porzingis to 49, Joshua E with the Caffes. Cleveland, this is for you. All right, the relic and then the auto. Here is Bones Hyland, 22 out of 25, he looked all right. I feel like he had some moments this past year. Heirs to the Throne, good shooter. Denver, Josh. The auto, Josh Proust, that is. This is a Cav and that is Karris Lavert, 98, not 38, 98 out of 99. Cleveland, this is for you. I remember Tim, Tim cashing is over on the giant. Did you say the over was 12? That seemed like a huge number. I don't see total run totals go over. I mean, 10 is usually pretty high. Unless you tease it to 12 to get better odds, I like these cards. That's Kevin Durant, that's kind of hard to see right there, but it's test of time, purple parallel. I think that looks really cool. And that's kind of hard to see right there, but there it is, two out of 25. That's for Brooklyn, that'll be for Petrie. The relic and the auto, relic is. Heirs to the throne relic, that is Brandon Boston, Jr. That's Joshua E with the clip show. Centering is really off, or is that intentional? If that's unintentional, is it? And we got another Joe Harris, Knights of the Roundtable autograph. This time a nice low number, two out of 10. Two color patch and autograph. Like Brooklyn could have definitely used him down the stretch. That's Petrie with Brooklyn. Second half of this half case break, another 10 minutes. 70 out of 99, Corey Kispert, Washington Wizards.  There's Corey again, one out of 25. Another sort of off center back. Yeah, our wizard, Randy. And the autograph, good luck. It's BJ Armstrong for the Chicago Bulls. 39 out of 49, doubles Joshua E with Chicago. Jazz relic there, and Kate Cunningham. And Snow Globe Jalen Green, 30 out of 99. Snow Globe die cut, that is for Michael and the Rockets. Nice rookie die cut, Snow Globe. That thing looks pretty cool.  And your two hits, Relic and Otto. Relic first, Rudy Gobert for the Jazz. Knights of the Round Table, Relic. That's for Simon in Utah. Yeah, good eye, Oliver pointing out, looks like all vet Otto so far. Rookie Otto? No, Kauai Leonard?  That's for Joshua Idlitz, who won that team in the team random. I feel like you don't really see his autograph too often in basketball product.  Clippers could be an interesting team. Get a healthy season of Kauai Leonard and Paul George. Trey Young cracked ice, 24 out of 99. Jamal Crawford for the Tee Wolves, Knights of the Round Table Relic for Paul in Minnesota. We got Alperin Sengoon. This is our first rookie autograph out of here, 67 out of 99. And it's Michael with the Rockets. Final box, grab the auto tour. There's DeManda Sabonis to 49, that's King's Edition for Oliver. We got Knights of the Round Table, Relic. Onyeka Okongu for the ATL. That's for Serenity and the Atlanta Hawks. And the autograph I think is a nice one. Yeah, it's Jalen Green. Rookie Auto for the Rockets, 31 out of 75. Is he on the box? No, he's not. He's been on the box before. Different product, not this one, but Michael Robinson, Houston Rockets. There you go. And that's it, ladies and gentlemen. That is Pick Your Team number five from JaspeysCaseRace.com. Are Kabooms guaranteed one per case? If they are, that should be in the other half. So we'll see you for that in the next video. JaspeysCaseRace.com. This was Pick Your Team number five. Thanks for watching. Thanks for breaking with me. I'm Joe. I'll see you next time for the next one.


Welcome to this tutorial on R-Package DirecMeta. I'm Guido Schwarzer, and I'm the maintainer of this package. You find on Xenodo the R script and the data set that I'm using in this tutorial. There are two versions of the R-Package available, the official CRAN version, as well as the Github version, where you can find bug fixes on new features. Let's have a brief look at the overview of the package. So it has been down here. It implements the method by Steinhauser. I will have a brief look into this method in a minute. And the main purpose is to conduct the meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies with multiple cut-offs. Yeah, there are not too many functions here in the package. The main function is the DirecMeta function. But let's first have a look at the paper, the publication, underlying this R-Package. So this is by Susanne Steinhauser, together with Martin Schumacher and Gerter Rücker from Freiburg, from our institute. They proposed a new approach for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies. And what they are doing is they estimate the distribution functions of the underlying biomarker within the non-diseased and the diseased. And for that they assume either a normal or a logistic distribution. And they are applying a linear mixed effects model to the transformed data. So either the normal or the logistic transformed data. And the determination of the optimal cut-off is done by maximizing the user index. Yeah, so, and in pitting what they are doing is they are using a class of weighted linear mixed effects regression models with fixed effects for the groups and the thresholds and the interactions and with various random effects terms. Those are assumed to follow a multivariate normal distribution. And what's modeled here is basically the specificity and one minus of the sensitivity. And here are the corresponding linear mixed effects equations for that. And this age here is then the transformation either for the normal distribution or for the logistic distribution. Estimation is done using ELMA, the ELMA function with the remel estimation and inverse variance weights. And just to a brief overview here in table one on the models that are considered here. There are several models and this CIDS model. So with the common random intercept, that's the CI and the different random slopes. That's the DS part here. This is the model that we will have a closer look into. So let's go back to our example or a first to the function. And what we see here are the arguments of the function. So what we have to provide here are the true positives, the false positives, the true negatives and the false negatives. So basically the two by two table and also the cutoff where these two by two table is based on and the study labels because we can have more than one row per study because this is what we do with multiple cutoffs. The distribution either logistic or normal and here the model common intercept common slope but we will use a different model here and some additional arguments that I do not want to go into detail now. So let's go back here. So first what we do is we define that sensitivity, specificities and so on should be printed with three digits. And then we load the data here of our example. It's a meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies that try to differentiate between bacterial and viral meningitis in children. So let's load the data and have a look at some rows of the data set. And as you can see here, these are the last entries here in total we have 17 rows. The last two one are from a study that only has a single cutoff value but we can see here that this new study has at least four. Actually there are even more, I think there are seven and we can have a look at this by using this command here. Here we get an overview of all studies and all available cutoffs. Yes, I was right. So there are seven cutoff values for the new study. Here are the two that only provide a single cutoff and we see that there are three studies that have two cutoffs as well. Overall, this is I would say a data set that is not that big. And as we will see when we run the model, we have there also some estimation problems. So the Steinhalter method as I've described before is available in this diagram meta function. These first six arguments are the ones that you should provide or must provide the four values here for the two by two table, the cutoff value where this two by two table corresponds to and also the study level to know for which study this two by two table is. Data set and then the model here, common, random intercept, different random slope, logistic distribution. And we also say that the cutoff that we do not want to lock transform the values here. So as we can see these two here distribution and lock cutoff, they are the defaults of the model. Only thing we change here is to use this model. And if we run this, then we get here this warning or note that we have a boundary singular fit here. But nevertheless, let's have a look at the results here for this model. So here is the summary stating that we have in total eight studies, 17 cutoff values, 10 different cutoffs. This is the model we used with the corresponding distribution and so on. And this is the first result. So here the optimal cutoff value is 0.74. And we get then also the sensitivity and specificity estimates with confidence intervals for this optimal cutoff. And also the area under the curve for a dense region either for the sensitivity given specificity or the other way around. The AOC value is always the same. It's very high as we can see here. And the confidence intervals are somewhat different. Then next, what we do here is we use the DIAC stats command. Let's run it just on our DIAC meta, our object. What we see here is that we get a listing here of the sensitivity and specificity estimates, standard errors and the confidence limits for a given cutoff value. If we look here into the function, we see that there are some arguments that we could use to get different estimates and so on. So for example, we could say that we are not only interested here in the optimal cutoff value, but we could specify others here. We could provide a prevalence value. If we provide a prevalence of value, then we also get positive and negative predicted values. And this is what we are doing here in the following examples. I'm using here the Deployer package in order to only select certain variables of the printout. So here, in addition to the optimal cutoff, we would like to see the sensitivity and specificity values for some other values. And they are printed here. As I said, when I looked at the theoretical paper, this optimal cutoff is based on maximizing the unit index. But you could might also be, yeah, have tried to see what are the other values here or how do they compare here? And in this example here, I'm looking at prevalence values from 10% to 50% and look how the positive and the negative predicted value are for these values. And here we can then see the corresponding values and then interpret them according to our clinical question. Then concerning plots, let's first have a look at the default plot for a diagmeta object. We get here four figures. This one says here survival curves, but actually this is one minus the cumulative distribution function. And we see here with the field dots that are the bacterial infections and the other one meningitis and the other one are the viral ones. So the open circles. What we see here is then the maximization of the unit index which is plotted here and the bold line here that is actually the optimal cutoff value here. Here are the ROC curves and the SROC curve. As I said before here, we have rather large values for the AOC and this is clearly visible also here. So now as a final step, let's have a closer look at the SROC curve. So here was the witch argument we select not the interesting figure for our purposes. We want to like to print all points in black and so on and the corresponding result then looks like this. Yeah, so that is a quick introduction to the diagmeta package. There are other functionalities for example plot confidence regions and so on, but I think that should be enough for the moment. Thank you.


The Bighorn Mountains are a vast and beautiful mountain range located in North Central Wyoming. The highest peak of this mountain range is named Cloud Peak. This peak provides travelers with an awe-inspiring view. Cloud Peak protrudes from the Cloud Peak Wilderness area and rises to a height of 13,167 feet. The rugged peak has many steep walls, cliffs, and boulder fields. It also boasts the only glacier in the Bighorn Mountain Range on its east flank. The base of the peak is surrounded by several alpine lakes and is host to many different types of wildlife and plants found in an alpine ecosystem. Cloud Peak and its surrounding area provide travelers and visitors to the Bighorn Mountains with many recreational opportunities. Climbing Cloud Peak is no easy feat and draws in many climbers each summer attempting to reach the summit. Wildlife viewing, fishing, hunting, hiking, camping, and amazing views are a few reasons many people venture off the beaten path to Cloud Peak and the surrounding area. So the next time you're in the Bighorn Mountains or the Cloud Peak Wilderness area, take time to check out Cloud Peak. From the University of Wyoming Extension, I'm Brian Sebade, Exploring the Nature of Wyoming.


Hello, thank you for joining me on this lovely spring day. I'm dressed out for a walk on Chorleywood Common This is a lovely vast common in Chorleywood in the Free Rivers District of Hertfordshire What we're going to do today is we're going to go and have a look at the Seeders Estate And then we're going to walk down to the Metropolitan Railway to look at a possible halt that may or may not have once existed so the Seeders Estate is just up here It's one of two Former Stately Homes on Chorleywood Common. The other one is that way or a quarter of a mile or so, which we'll perhaps do in another video That's Chorleywood House, but today we're going to go and see a Seeders Estate Which this is the gatehouse for. Now going back to 1861 this common was owned by a man called John Saunders Gillat and He owned the common and he bought the Seeders Estate and what he did he modernized and improved the estate for his liking He demolished the Manor House and he built the Manor House which we're going to see today The estate now is a rather pleasant retirement village so in the grounds there's lots of little bungalows and flats for The elderly residents to live in so here we have the gatehouse cottage Now we're going to just walk up to the house have a look And then as I said, we're going to go down to the Metropolitan Line So these are some of the more recent developments. Well, I'd say in the last 25 years or so Maybe 30 years, maybe not quite 30 years. They built all these little bungalows It's probably is quite a nice place to retire now John Saunders Gillat, he so I said he owned the estate. He built the house Which we're going to see he was the Lord Mayor of Rikmansworth So when the Metropolitan Line was being built in the 1880s It was going to cut through his land now. He kind of was In one way he wasn't very happy about having to lose a bit of his land But in another way he was thinking well, you know, if I can get to London a bit easier Maybe it's not such a bad thing So what he did was he insisted on having his own private rail help built for his use so he could travel to and from London and If you look on some of the local Chawley Wood history websites, it tells you about this hole So what we're going to do we're going to go and investigate that Because there's a bit of a gray area as to whether there really ever was a hole But we'll we'll see that when we go down to the Metropolitan Railway So as we head across this lawn here, we're coming up to the house a very Impressive building very French looking. I think it looks them a Bit like a French Chateau just without the conical towers So if you were living in one of these houses or bungalows, you've got quite a nice place Well, like I say to retire to So here's the house. We're going to see it properly in a moment So it's I know I keep saying it's just seems like a nice place here Anyway, here's the house So here we have a lovely big Victoria Mansion with Union Jack flying plow on top One thing I will show you Like I said, it's a bit debatable. Did he ever get his railhole or not? Well, one thing he not sure he got it, but the estate certainly has now Does have a bus stop and just before I started making this video I actually saw the one bus of the day Coming and out. So if you live here, you have got your bus stop It's even quite a nice little bus shelter on the end of this building here Which I think is a garage block for some of the houses and it's not particularly regular bus service But you could get a bus if you want into Watford and out again So I think I saw the bus returning. Let's just have a look at the house So yeah, it's got big big mansard roof And like I said, I think it's quite French looking What we'll do we'll go around here I'll just show you the conservatory and what I'm going to do I'm going to head back out of the estate So I think inside is facilities for the residents of the Cedars Village You can see, I don't know, you might not be able to see I can see there's a library in there Probably was the orangery Mansard 4 There's no one in there So I'd say that was possibly an orangery I can see how they've got some stairs It's not a spiral staircase, but a staircase up, I don't know We'll be able to see that particularly easily And then there's like a walkway all around the top And we're coming down to the back of the house See that, how they've got a nice iron staircase going up I'd love to go in there and have a walk around the top But I don't know if I will Pith the back of the house You can see how they've built some more modern Retirement flats for that side Which I can see a nod to the original design They have quite a nice garden here I think well in Tonya tree there And there's some cedar trees So that's probably where they had the cedars of, the cedars of the state The house looks a bit different now Still very pleasant though So what I'm going to do now I'm going to head back to the gatehouse And we're going to walk across Chorleywood Common Down to the Metropolitan Railway And we'll see if John Saundersgillard Actually ever got this hole that he requested So we're now going to leave the cedars of the state And there's the mansion behind us This lime tree avenue which we came along when we arrived And as I said we're going to go down to the Metropolitan Line To try and find whether this hole ever was built Or not, see if we can see any evidence that there was a hole It's a very pleasant walk down there Down through an area of Chorleywood Common Known as Artichoke Dell As I said I do really like the common It's somewhere I often come for walks So I'm just going to show you a bit of that on the way There's the gatehouse again So to give you an idea of where we are The main road runs on over there Chorleywood Parish Church is only just behind Some trees but I can't actually see it And the Metropolitan Line is down here So it's about half a mile away So I'm just going to show you this first little bit Of the walk So the main vast expanse of the common And there's this rather nice little lane As you can see that takes us down Well this is actually dog kennel lane And we're going to walk all the way down dog kennel lane To Berry Lane Supposedly the hole was on Berry Lane But Berry Lane crosses the Metropolitan Line twice So we're going to have to look at both places it crosses it But first have a look at this property here I think this is quite an exciting property Sort of in a hole I always think here it's a bit like Reminds me this area of When I was a child and I used to watch Rupert the Bear The cartoon Rupert the Bear He lived in a village called Nutwood And it just reminds me A bit of that really So we are now We've got a little bit of woodland And we shall soon come to the area Called, oh it's a choked out well it's a pub Where I'm not going to go another pint But I probably would If things were a bit more normal at the time So the seed of the state is Just beyond the trees there So John Swann is good at he Like I said he owned all of the common And the seed is a state He's had the railway put through in 1881 And he asked for this hole He would have long after his time Also had the M25 put through his A state so one does wonder What he'd think of that I don't think he'd have probably asked For his own private junction Because there is a junction quite close This is the arctic choked out You can just see the black course pub down there So I'm going to carry on Until I get to the Metropolitan So we're now walking on down dog kennel lane You can just see the end of Surely were common behind me As you can see there's no pavement on this lane Which is you know quite a common thing On rural country lanes So not a problem But what they have done here Something quite exciting The lane carries on down there They've created this little path here In the hedge Which takes us off the lane And away from the traffic So we're now going to quite literally Going through this rural hedging Down to the Metropolitan lane I just like things like this That are just a little bit different From your average path Just makes going out for a walk a bit more fun And then of course the path has the stop here To cross the drive to one of the properties So we go up more steps And continue on There's the allotments on the other side Of dog kennel lane Now the hulks I was talking about As I said they were on Berry lane And just down here dog kennel lane Joins Berry lane and as I said it crosses Berry lane crosses the Metropolitan lane twice So we're going to inspect both bridge Looking for any possible signs That there could have once been a rail halt there So we're very nearly there now Weaving around the trees And then Just down here Is the junction So This is dog kennel lane Where that car is waiting The Citroen coming under the bridge is on Berry lane Berry lane continues off down there And of course there's the railway line So let's go and have a look See if we can see anything indicative of a hole It's all about that exciting path We'd have had to walk along there Which wouldn't be a problem But you know that path made it fun So this bridge here Which is 14 feet 9 inches high Was there once a railway halt here There are two glances Looking at the bank I deliberately did this video Before the summer came along because I wanted a fairly bare bank I can't see anything there Indicative of a hole I can't really on that side because It's already covered with evergreen Plants This bridge is MR96 So Metropolitan Railway Bridge 96 I assume they count up As you go out of London Looking towards Amersham Of course the other way Now regarding the halt Can't see anything So obviously there would have been a platform on both sides Can't see anything on that embankment Or that embankment for that matter Anything indicative of a halt To me I would say it can't have been here So there's a possibility The halt was at the next bridge Which we're gonna walk along and find But yeah I think we can rule out That there ever was a halt here At this bridge so I'm gonna walk back under A long berry lane to find the other bridge Continuing along Berry Lane We have another path taken Slightly away from the lane Like we did on Dawkins Lane So I'm continuing to enjoy The walk and enjoy Seeing the spring flowers The daffodils And the blossom So we now run Nicely parallel to Railway That's quite good, there were no trees there When everyone steam on the met It'd be a really good place to see a steam train Because they'd be working hard coming up the bank So this funny path I'm taking We get to here, there's another road junction Down more steps As you can see continues on Up there, now in a minute We're gonna come to somewhere Which I made a video about A couple of months ago So you'll see that in a moment Regarding this halt So until I saw the page On the Charlie Wood History website I didn't know there'd ever been a halt here I've got various books On the Metropolitan Line I couldn't see anything mentioned there And I've got various videos On the Metropolitan Line I've watched various other videos On the internet, nothing seems to mention this halt So it was becoming more and more Of a mystery that There's this halt mentioned But no one seems to know anything about it To me seems very unusual That there could be no pictures Of the halt And this exciting path ends here So yeah, to me I found all that a bit unusual There was no pictures Or any information apart from A couple of lines about it On some of the Charlie Wood Local history websites It mentioned it So it does make me wonder Did it ever exist, but On one of the Charlie Wood history websites It does say That you can still see the steps So we didn't see any steps back there So we'll certainly look at the next bridge So there must be something To see, but I am Starting to doubt Did this halt ever exist Now have a look at this in front of us This is the M25 Which would have also gone through John Saunders Gillette's land Like I said earlier though It may not have been alive to have witnessed that But no doubt It may not have been best pleased So you may remember I did a video here Said a couple of months ago Have a look at the link on screen now That was where I took you down We walked under here and had a look Because I always said it was one of my favourite views Out of a train on the Metropolitan Line A couple of people though in the comments They pointed out how you can quite clearly see Where the Metropolitan Metropolitan Line, the M25 Has had an extra lane put in So I wasn't going to show you there But the sun's in the way so I'm going to show you On the other side So here is that very vast space And the Metropolitan Line Is like a model railway On a shelf up there But for that do, as I said Watch that video If you have a look at here I've got those columns See these ones here, these are the newer ones They'll be the same on the other side It was just a bit sunny there So it wasn't so easy to show you You can see looking up there You can quite clearly see how this is a newer section Of bridge And we're very close now to the other bridge On Bury Lane So if there is any sign of any steps For this mysterious halt It's got to be here So I wonder what we're going to find I'm doubting the halt existed Am I about to be proved Be proved wrong We'll very soon find out So Different sort of bridges One, not the Brick Arts Bridge We're going up quite a steep hill Bury Lane changes From a flattest road along the valley To a steep hill, it'll take you up to The Mile End Area Of Rickmansworth We've got another quite a posh estate here If you've followed that down That'll take you into Rickmansworth This location Looks even less Appropriate for a halt The topography doesn't seem right That said though, it would be a more convenient route Because about where the M25 Is, there would have been another Lime Tree Avenue once Up to the seat of the state So probably a better location for a halt But not an easier location So potentially He could have got on and off the train here And walked up there But did he ever have the halt? That's the question Again, on there I don't see anything indicative of a halt I cannot see any steps But we've still got the other side So what will we find? Mrs. M. R. 95 So Metropolitan Bridge 95 So yeah, they do count up From London Let's have a look Yeah, okay Can see some steps I don't think They're quite old enough to be Have a look at that, look, yeah, okay There is definitely some steps Remains of steps going up there I don't think they date back to the time That the Metropolitan Line was built I think they're engineer steps They've been added at a later date They've worn out And whoever Right in the local history website Well meaningly Assumed they were the steps from the halt So my conclusion is The halt never existed Yes John Saunders give up Requested the halt I believe that because that was quite common At the time when Landowners had a railway through the land Yes he requested the halt I don't think he ever got the halt If you want to prove me wrong Please do, but like I said Don't just show me those two websites Because that's where I got my information from Disproved that, so as far as I'm concerned There never was a halt here Also there's no suggestion of what it's name was And like I said, everything I've looked at on the Metropolitan Railway There's no mention of it at all So I think we're finishing the video here At a halt that never existed But where trains pass through So I hope you enjoyed this video Thank you very much for watching Please do feel free to like, subscribe and comment And from the halt which I'm pretty sure never ever existed Thank you very much for watching Goodbye