Welcome back. So, we were discussing conditional PMF. We said if x and y are discrete random variables conditional PMF p x comma y of x sorry p x given y of little x given y is defined as p x comma y of little x comma little y over p y of y right. This is just probability that x is equal to little x y is equal to little y over probability of y is equal to y. Assuming so this all this assumes that this is positive. So, x and y are discrete random variables. So, they take some countable set of values right. And what you are doing essentially is that you are fixing let us say a value particular value y right and asking what condition on y equal to y what is the conditional PMF of x right. So, you are just scaling this joint for the given y divided by. So, by the probability that y equal to y right and if you are given a joint PMF you can find the marginal by just adding over all x right. So, this guy is simply sum over all x of p x y of x y right that is the denominator. So, if you are given the joint PMF you can find the conditional PMF. And since this is this has to be positive only then is the conditional PMF defined. So, we discussed this last class are there any questions on this. So, I will now state a theorem let x and y be discrete random variables then the following are equivalent all x y n r such that p y of y is greater than 0. We have p x given y of y equals p x of x. So, this theorem is actually a fairly simple theorem to prove right this it gives equivalent conditions for discrete random variables x and y being independent. So, we have already defined independence of random variables x and y as this corresponding sigma algebras generated sigma algebras being independent. So, we know what this means and this for the specific case when x and y are both discrete this is giving further condition for the equivalent conditions which are easier to verify often for discrete random variables rather than go hunting for sigma x and sigma y and prove that they are independent sigma algebras. The equivalent conditions you can verify which is enough to say that x and y are independent. So, the following are equivalent meaning that. So, the 4 statements I have said are equivalent statements. So, what does it mean? So, what the first of all if I say 2 statements are equivalent what is the what does it mean? So, if I say statement a and statement b are equivalent a implies b and b implies a correct. So, if I say that 2 statements are equivalent I have to prove 2 results this direction and this direction right. So, here I am saying 4 statements are equivalent which means I should prove how many statements 12 statements I have to prove right. Is that true? So, I for. So, I can pick any 4 choose 2 ways of picking these statements right 6 statements and I have to prove 2 theorem both ways right. So, I have to prove 12 theorem there are 12 results in this right, but often you do not have to that is what it logically that is what I have to do right. You have to prove that this implies this, this implies this right and this implies that the third one and so on right. You have to exhaust 12 statements, but often what you can do is you can prove a circular 1 implies 2 implies 3 implies 4 implies 1 right. That kind of a thing is also fine right. Often you may be able to get away with verifying a smaller subset of these 12 statements right. So, in this case actually see some of these are trivial right the equivalence of 2 and 3 is quite trivial right right. So, we are saying this says that the event x is equal to little x and y equal to little y are independent events and the equivalence to the PMS factorizing is very obvious right. It is almost like from the definition it follows straight from the definition right. In fact, the equivalence of 2, 3 and 4 is very easy right that I will not do it is very easy to verify. Proof equivalence of 2, 3 and 4 is easy I will not do it you it is almost from the definition. So, if you buy that 2, 3, 4 are equivalent how many statements do you know what you have to prove? It is enough to prove that 1 implies any one of these guys right any one of these guys and conversely if you assume any one of these 2, 3, 4 it implies 1 that would be enough right. Any questions? So, let us prove that 1 implies how do you prove 1 implies 2. So, you are assuming that x and y are independent right and you want to prove that these 2 are independent events right how do you prove that. So, the sigma algebra. So, if x and y are independent sigma algebra generated by x and y are independent sigma algebra which means for any Borel sets for any Borel B 1 and B 2 we have p of x belonging to B 1 and y belonging to B 2 is equal to p x belonging to B 1 times p y belonging to B 2 y belonging to B 2. So, these are Borel sets in R these are Borel sets in. So, they are for any Borel sets B 1 and B 2 in R you must have this right this is what independence of sigma algebra means correct. Now, how do you know what you do next? Take singleton take B 1 as the singleton x and B 2 as the singleton y right. Now, take B 1 as singleton x and B 2 as singleton y little y right that will be the end of it because then you will have probability that x is equal to little x and y is equal to little y will product out which means that these 2 are independent events right. See when I write comma for intersection that I already mentioned I think right and that is it proofs over right. So, one this direction is very easy now I have to prove that one of these right we assume either 2 or 3 or 4 you get 1 right. So, assume that now let us say 2 holds right then you have to prove 1 alright. So, we proceed as follows again B 1 B 2 or Borel sets in R Borel sets B 1 B 2 we have probability of x belongs to B 1 and y belongs to B 2. So, this is equal to. So, I am going to take. So, this can be written as a summation is it not? Summation x belongs to B 1 y belongs to B 2 probability x sorry x is equal to little x y equal to little y and you are summing over all. So, you are looking at the probability x is in B 1 and y is in B 2. So, you are looking at you are summing over all the masses that are sitting inside B 1 and B 2 respectively correct. So, that relation is. So, this is just saying that if I know the joint PMF I know the joint when it is like saying I know the joint law right except the Borel set here is of is like a Cartesian product of 2 Borel sets on R right B 1 cross B 2 now. So, this is equal to I am assuming 2 is not it. So, this is equal to. So, this will be equal to probability of x is equal to x times probability of y is equal to y because I am assuming 2. Now, this will become summation x belongs to B 1 probability x is equal to x times summation y belongs to B 2 probability y equal to y. How does this work? Because see now you have factorized right. So, this x summation will only hit this and y summation will only hit that right clear and you have what you want right. So, this is equal to probability that. So, this x is a discrete random variable now right. So, this is equal to what probability that times probability that y belongs to B 2 correct. And this is true for any Borel sets B 1 and B 2 right which means the sigma of x and sigma of y are independent sigma algebra which means x and y are independent. So, this is true for all Borel B 1 and B 2 implies x y are independent. So, are there any questions on this yeah. So, what we have said is that if you want to for if you want to talk about independence of discrete random variables x and y it is good enough to verify that the joint P M F factorizes into the marginals right. That is equivalent to saying x and y are independent random variables and conditional P M F is something you can calculate. If you are given only the joint because from the joint you can get the marginal and divide 1 by the error you will get the conditional P M F. And this condition simply says if you are given if the conditional P M F is same as the unconditional P M F also saying x and y are independent they are equivalent. Very easy stuff right this is as elementary as it gets discrete random variables are very easy. Now, if you move on to continuous random variables. So, in the discrete case we said if x takes if x is discrete then it takes only countable values on r with probability 1. Similarly, y takes countable set of values on r with probability 1 then the pair x comma y necessarily takes only countable values on r 2 that is because cartesian products of 2 countable sets is necessarily a countable set. However, in the countable case in the continuous case this is not so simple. If x is a continuous random variable and y is a continuous random variable it need not be true that x and y are jointly continuous. First of all I have not told you what jointly continuous is which I will, but what you suspect it will be remember we said that we said x is a continuous random variable if the measure P x is absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure on r. In other words all length 0 sets have 0 probability measure right. So, if you are talking about random variables x and y mapping to r 2 mapping omega to r 2 what should the equivalent definition of a continuous jointly continuous x y b exactly. So, it should just be that.  Now, if for every 0 area set 0 Lebesgue measure set on r 2 you have the joint law is 0 right. Then you say x comma y is a jointly continuous jointly continuous random variables right, but what I am saying is that it is not true if x is continuous and y is continuous it is not necessarily true that x comma y is jointly continuous. It is in the discrete case if x and y are separately discrete they are jointly discrete right. So, let me define this.  And we said that if x is x and y are random variables then all Borel sets on r will have pre measures which are f measurable that will actually be a home work you have to prove this right that the pre measures of Borel sets on r 2 are necessarily f measurable. Now, what I am saying is that. So, there is 2 measures here one is the measure pushed by the random variables which is P x y the other measure is Lebesgue let us call it lambda for the whatever better name. So, what we want is the following definition x and y are jointly continuous if the joint law P x y well P x y is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure on r 2 strictly speaking I should say the Lebesgue measure on the Borel sigma algebra on r 2 right. Absolutely continuous means that if you take any Borel set on r 2 which has 0 area 0 Lebesgue measure then the corresponding probability law P x y must also be 0 right is that clear. So, if you give me any Borel set n such that lambda of n is 0 then I must have P x y of n is also 0 any questions. So, this is a repetition of what we said in the one dimensional case right caution if x and y or continuous random variables x and y need not be jointly continuous. So, if x and y are separately discrete it necessarily means that the joint measure x y will also take only countable values right. So, x and y are jointly discrete, but in the continuous case if x and y are separately continuous it does not mean that x comma y is jointly continuous can you see why roughly you are right you are talking about. So, x and y are separately continuous means that their joint see their marginal laws are absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure on r right, but that is not imply that the joint laws absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure on r 2 right. So, if you can just take any simple example you want let us say. So, let us say x is Gaussian remember this Gaussian with mu equal to 0 sigma equal to 1 right. So, this is denoted by n 0 1 remember this example. So, this will you can take anything you want right this I am just giving one example let us say and y let us say let y equal to 2 x. So, x is some standard Gaussian you can take standard exponential for all you for all for all I can take any continuous random variable you want and take y equal to 2 x y will also be a continuous random variable. In fact, it will be Gaussian with parameters 0 and 4 you can show we will see that later. So, then y is distributed like n 0 4 which is also a continuous random variable right, but what you see is that this guy this measure exist. So, this is just sample space omega, but your measure exists only on the line y equal to 2 x right. All the measure is sitting on the line right all omegas here necessarily map to that line y equal to 2 x see y. So, x of omega is whatever it is y of omega is necessarily twice of x of omega by definition right. So, all the measure will exist on that line with me, but this line has 0 Lebesgue measure it has 0 area right the line has 0 area you can actually show it rigorously if you if you can consider the line as some countable intersection of small rectangles and so on and prove that this line has 0 Lebesgue measure and. So, you have all the probability measure of 1 sitting on a set of Lebesgue measure 0 on r 2 right. So, this is an example to show that even if x and y are separately continuous random variables they need not be jointly continuous according to a definition right. So, saying that x and y are jointly continuous is a strictly stronger condition than x and y are. So, what we will show is that if x and y are jointly continuous they have to be marginally continuous as well that is something we will show very soon. So, joint continuity is a stronger condition than being marginally continuous x and y being marginally continuous is that clear any questions no see y is it is true see x is some Gaussian and y is is equal to 2 x it is also Gaussian y is also Gaussian you can show. What I am saying is that this is your sample space all omegas necessarily map to this line correct that is clear to everybody right because if x of omegas whatever it is y of omegas has to be twice x of omegas. So, all your measure has to sit on that line which has Lebesgue measure 0. So, it is not jointly continuous. So, now suppose that x and y are in fact jointly continuous random variables which means that p x y is absolutely continuous with respect to lambda. Now, what can you say now you can invoke what can you invoke now you can invoke Radon Nicodem theorem right Radon Nicodem theorem holds for very arbitrary measure spaces with sigma finite measures. So, it is a very general theorem that is what I mean to say. So, that so p x y can be written as the integral of some non negative measurable function d lambda on r 2 right. So, Radon Nicodem theorem will imply the following Radon Nicodem theorem right that. So, if x comma y are jointly continuous random variables Radon Nicodem theorem will imply that there exists measurable function non negative measurable function f x y which maps r 2 to 0 infinity such that for any Borel B on r 2 we have the joint law p x y of B given by the integral over B f x y d lambda this is lambda is on Lebesgue measure on the plane r 2 actually if you if you prefer you can just write this as d x d y there is nothing wrong in writing it as d x d y right. So, I mean again this is an integral you will not fully understand now this is a Lebesgue integral. Again you can just think of B as being some box right if you want some rectangle as well that the probability of x and y mapping to a box is integral over that box f x y d x d y and this is saying there exists such a non negative function. And in particular taking what you do now you will take generating class right. So, what is the generating class for Borel sigma algebra on r 2 semi infinite rectangles right. So, taking B equal to minus infinity x cross minus infinity y oops infinity y we have then p x y of a set like that will be nothing, but what the joint c d a is not it we have f x y of x comma y which is nothing, but the probability that x is less than or equal to x y is less than or equal to y equal to integral minus infinity to x integral minus infinity to y f x y d y d x I should write may be d f x y of x y f x y of some let us say r comma s or something like that because I cannot use the same variables f x y of s comma t d t d s that does make sense I am not writing d x d y because I mean that is that guy sitting outside right I cannot integrate with respect to same variables. So, red on equilibrium theorem affirms that the c d f can be written as the integral over the semi infinite rectangles of some non negative function again just like in the single dimensional case this has this is called probability density function except now it is a joint p d f joint probability density function. So, this is called joint probability density function of x and y it is some non negative measurable function again it has no interpretation of probability whatsoever only if you integrate it over a Borel set do you get a probability. And also this just like in the one dimensional case this p d f is only uniquely specified up to a set of Lebesgue measure 0 are there any questions on this. So, this is a point you will appreciate later. So, I was just saying that see the c d f probability law can be written as the integral of some non negative measurable function with respect to the Lebesgue measure all I was saying is that this joint p d f is uniquely specified only up to a set of Lebesgue measure 0 you change the function on some 1 or 2 points or a countable points or some 0 measure point does not really change the integral as we will see later. So, you can it is unique up to a set of measure 0 uniquely specified up to a set of measure 0. So, when I mean so when I mean measurable f x y that means that pre images of Borel sets on R must be Borel sets on R 2 that is all I mean I mean this you will understand later you can only integrate see when we do integration theory we will integrate a measurable function with respect to a measure over a measurable set we will do that later. So, which is why this you put a question mark we will get back to it in about 2 weeks, but this you understand this guy is just your indefinite Riemann integral fine. In fact, in this you can also it is also true that the order in which you integrate will not matter, because this is a non negative function then it can be shown that the order in which you integrate does not matter you can jolly well just write d s d t integrated in the opposite order. Now, so if I give you the joint p d f you can integrate it and find the joint c d f, but if you given the joint c d f you can always find the probability law which means that if I specify the joint p d f it is a complete characterization of 2 jointly continuous random variables. Are there any questions on this now what you can show also is that. So, you have that relation. So, I can now show that if I just consider the probability that x is less than or equal to x suppose I am only interested in probability that. So, I just want to compute this let us say which is the probability that x is less than or equal to x say x and y are jointly continuous. So, what will I do I know the joint c d f and you know theorem about joint c d f if you send y to infinity you get the marginal c d f of the other guy x. So, if I send y to infinity in this relation. So, this is this we can this we have shown already if I send y to infinity I will get the joint I will get the marginal this is x comma y I will get the marginal of x. This is from one of our properties of joint c d f this has nothing to do with continuous random variables, but now I am going to invoke this relation. Now, I am going to use the fact that x and y are jointly continuous. So, then I am going to write. So, I send limit y to infinity as I said you can just integrate it to any order you want I will not prove that, but just take it from me that if you have a non negative function you can change the order of integration nothing happens. If this guy can be positive as well as negative then you have to be very careful about interchanging the orders of integration. You cannot always integrate in any order you wish, but this guy is non negative. So, there is a theorem known as fubini's theorem which we will not do in this class which allows you to integrate in any order you wish. So, you can write this as integral write this as all that f x y of s t d t d s I am just putting y equal to infinity I am being a little bit loose I am sending. So, what I am doing is I am sending limit inside one of the integrals. All this you can do because f is non negative normally you cannot do all this, but here you are here you are pushing limit into the second first integral. Now, what happens? So, if you look at. So, let us look at. So, my x variable is s my x variable is s and my first integral is hitting t and t is going from minus infinity to infinity. So, if I simply just consider that bit the t integral alone what remains will be a function of s and I am integrating a non negative function over minus infinity to infinity. So, what I must get is a also non negative function it will be a non negative measurable function. If you integrate a non negative measurable function you get another non negative measurable function. So, this is some non negative measurable function which means I can write the c d f of x as the integral from minus infinity to x of some non negative measurable function of s which means that x is a continuous random variable.  So, and I am I am saying that I can write f x of x as the integral of a non negative measurable function which means that x is a continuous random variable right. Because in fact, rayon equilibrium theorem is an if and only if statement right if p x is continuous or nu is absolutely continuous with respect to nu if and only if nu nu of b can be written as the integral f d mu. So, if and only if statement. So, this implies x is a continuous random variable because it is c d f can be written as the integral of a non negative measurable function. This is after all I mean I should not be I mean I can only call this f x right. So, I can now that I know it must be the p d f of x right I can just call this f x of s right. So, if I am given the joint probability density function I can get the marginal probability density function by integrating out the other variable from minus infinity to infinity. So, where so maybe here I should say it where f x of s equal to integral f x of s is equal to integral minus infinity f x comma y of s comma t d t right. That is what I am calling f x of s and because my c d f is into expressible as the integral of f x of s this must automatically be the probability density function of x the marginal probability density function of x. So, if x and y are jointly continuous random variables it is the case that they are marginally continuous we have just proved it right. But of course, we know that if x and y are marginally continuous they need not be jointly continuous that we have we have a counter example. So, being jointly continuous is a strictly stronger condition than the random variables being marginally continuous is that clear. So, you said other way of saying if it is jointly continuous it need to be marginally continuous take this marginally continuous need not be jointly. Yes that is correct exactly correct all right any question so far how much time do I have I have 5 more minutes. So, next we will discuss the independence of two jointly continuous random variables. So, we know that see we know that independence of any two random variables is equivalent to the c d f factorizing right that we have established already. So, which means that so if x and y are jointly continuous and independent we must have f x y of x y must be f x of x times f y of y. But the seed joint c d f itself can be written as an integral right and the marginal c d f can also be written as the integrals right. So, what we can show is that if x and y are jointly continuous and they are independent you can show that the joint p d f must necessarily factorize. And conversely you can show that if the joint p d f factorize x and y are independent that seems perfectly reasonable right. So, for jointly continuous random variables so that is something we will start in the next class I do not want to start it now I will stop here thanks.


Good morning traders. Can you hear me and see my screen if you could just type yes in the questions there? Okay, excellent. Thank you David All right guys, let's get started. So rounding out the week here Friday This is the bookmap live trading webinar. We've been doing here in discord for a few weeks now With the Educational goals here. It's all a part of our educational course that you get with bookmap First there's an online course. That's four parts. If you haven't watched the videos. I Really encourage you to do that first We're gonna go over the same course content in these live markets. So all of the different vocabulary And Terminology is already in those videos as well as like these concepts that we're going to go through rather quickly Due to this being the live market The concept of the education is you have the course learn from the course Come to these webinars and be able to apply what you've learned in the live market The kind of analysis we're going to go through here is live forward-looking Analysis of the market will read the current market and give insight to where we think price will move next It is not hindsight analysis We will go through hindsight if people request it or if we want to look at something to as a lesson as well as like a Where price might go looking on higher timeframes? We will go back in hindsight and look at Behavior and then give insight to where we think price will go next. So that's our goal here Now it's not necessarily about trading strategies nor Trade management We have live trading webinars with Jay trader a stocks trader on Wednesday and Scott will see me a futures trader on Thursday They will go through that Because book map is not a trading strategy a book map is a platform There are many different ways to trade Jay trader and Scott trade completely differently So You know, everyone has their own style of trading Book map is the playing field the platform. So it's important to understand and use The tools here in book map to get what you want from your trading method All right So we have a very complete education these three parts that you get you get the course The live forward-looking analysis and the live trading and it's all included. It's all free I really encourage you and Suggest you take a look at other competitors out there No one offers anything like this that I have seen if they do offer education You have to pay for it and you have to pay quite a bit hundreds or even thousands of dollars and a lot of that education is just static it is Documentation of different things and PDFs Imagery etc and they just go here you go and Or videos and then that's it No follow-up no live forward-looking analysis if they do live analysis. It's probably in Hindsight most likely and I doubt they're gonna offer any trading room services for free. All right, so anyway Just some things to Consider I just think it's a really nice program that we offer here a lot of value I hope you guys are getting a lot out of it All right, so let's go through some disclosures and then we'll jump in general disclosure all book map limited materials Information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor Recommendations risk disclosure trading futures equities and digital currencies Involves the central risk of loss and it's not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All right So let's jump in here. We're gonna take a bigger picture approach first and Just want to let you guys know on our Twitter and YouTube channels. You might want to follow along a Great webinar yesterday with Scott Pulsini the recording is here And I also want to show you on YouTube where you can find this as well. So we just kind of Reorganize a little bit the homepage in our YouTube channel here With the playlist book map intro videos pro trader webinar courses here or series some selected webinars features and components order flow education and live Recordings of the live streaming here discord events Scots and J traders webinars are here. Okay, so if you want to watch them, they're here All of them are here You can click on the on the text here and open up the entire playlist and you'll see them all in here All right, so that's that if you have any questions about that Let's take a look at this S&P 500. That's what we're gonna take a look at and jump into and before we do We're gonna take a bigger step back and and look at the broader picture Understand what's going on in market structure and then we're gonna drill down in that market structure All right, so we're gonna look at the order flow In book map aligned with the higher timeframe structure. So let's jump back here. Let's take a look This is the daily chart over here on the left This is the hourly in the middle and then we have the 15 minute on the right-hand side So here's what we saw and we were looking for We kept these boxes on here or this analysis here these drawings We were looking for buyers around this area. We found them. We had a nice move to the upside Now this is due to a lot of iceberg orders that we saw Last week and the beginning of this week and we saw a beautiful move to the upside now It makes sense that we're also, you know, moving down to the downside. The news is not so good out there so However, it just want to point out that, you know, even with the news larger players activity or when the majority of traders are Aligned in a specific direction You know, the market's gonna It's they're gonna make money. It just makes sense like if they continue to absorb or Get filled on higher timeframes over a long period There's not gonna be any more selling pressure And that's when they're gonna make their money So buyers will start to come in and they'll move price back up and that's exactly what unfolded so Having that context and understanding of and this we saw in book map, right? Especially with the icebergs. We saw this We were in tune with that and this move played out really nicely now Why didn't it go up any higher than this? Well, I mean the news is not good, you know So but they made their money Clearly, like, you know, they made their money along the way here. So Above above where these icebergs were back up into just about this 47 40 area, I thought it would hit 50 It did not went up to just shy of 40 and then we're dropping here Okay, so we're right back down almost right back down to well There's these previous areas here. We just opened up in the previous area down here so let's let's take a look at the The the 15 minute chart here and Hold on There we go. Okay We can get rid of this here. This is what we drew up the other day. We were looking for this this move to the upside The the trend line really does not apply any longer here. So we can get rid of this This zone though, it still applies Okay, why is because this is where we found Buyers previously and we would assume that we will find buyers or at least short covering in this area as well And we have so far. Okay, so the cash Open here was down below the swing here Okay, it's gonna knock a lot of people out that were maybe swing traders or whatever looking for a bigger move here And now we just went up and filled the gap here Okay, so you can look at these areas here and these are pretty high probability You know, we opened up down below The gap is up here You know, there's gonna be a lot of covering and a lot of people maybe entering or You know having to buy back so Here we are right back up to the the gap fill What do we think now at this point? Well, it's not not so clear actually the You know looking at some of these maybe we'll look at some profile or some market structure in here The trend is still down. Okay, we know that So maybe a pullback to some of these trend trend lines or You know, maybe it just fills the gap and then just kind of starts to go exponential to the downside here One of the big scenarios for today is it could just just chop between the low and the high so far And in this area here, maybe it comes up a little bit higher Maybe it comes up into kind of this swing or this area here just looking at previous value areas, right? So in fact, we could probably, you know, draw another line in here up around this 4663 Something like that or maybe a different zone in here as well. So in fact, let me let me draw another line in here. I Think I have better Luck with lines in here because these Squares they just they're static and price moves and they're outdated Let's see here horizontal line. I'm sorry drawings horizontal line Okay Huh, okay, what did I do wrong? Let's see 4652 is that what we want 4652 that's fine. I'm not gonna adjust it. All right. Well, I don't know what I'm doing here I don't know why it's not drawing Anyway Yeah, I'm not too too good with our trader pro Anyway, this is the higher time frame that we're kind of looking at and we're looking Let's just keep this in mind here this 4664 area here And maybe I'll draw something else here instead I'll draw a Trendline Okay, so more around here Yeah, and we'll just keep that in mind this this area here, so we're looking at kind of a range here Could also draw another trend line over here just to keep in mind other Market structure here. Yeah, something like that. Okay. All right, so we're good So we're just kind of looking at some of these areas in here on the higher time frame and not really seeing much today All right, so let's let's jump into book map and see what's going on Here is the the move from Yesterday the move we can see here to the the downside And then we have the overnight session here was just chopped back and forth and then we immediately dropped here in the In this cash session here or I'm sorry We opened up down down in this area here like we were just seeing that gap fill and that gap has already been filled so Let's just zoom in here a little bit more and see what's going on All right So we're back up into market structure up here around this 46 50 and we just filled some of this liquidity up here and Yeah, just kind of chopping back and forth here And we're still bullish this this little structure from the cash open is still bullish We see the buyers come in here higher highs more buyers in here Kind of equaled sellers on the other side here and then we made kind of an equal high here We just made a higher low in here. So just again market structure What is the volume within the structure the back and forth structure that we're looking at here? Creates value areas. It might be a diagonal value area It might be a horizontal and then we can look at our volume profiles, etc And start to understand value areas a little more in a more concrete manner So anyway not not seeing much here either in this market at the moment All right one thing to see if we can get a little bit of buying up here now Right here where we are and this little swing here if we can I think we can come back up and break above 46 50 And maybe hit 55 here Okay, so looking for buyers at the moment. Let's just zoom in here now for this scenario to play out What are we looking for? Well a skew in the order book and buyers here Okay, here's here come some buyers a little bit of skew is already showing up here And we're looking for these guys to pull here at 50 and we can go come up into 51 and then maybe 55 here Okay, so just just shy of 50 at the moment here and we've already pulled back Okay, and now what about the volume up here not showing us much not showing us much at all Okay, this volume here looks pretty good. I mean just for the small move and we're not looking for You know much here if the volume was of different size in here and we saw a nice movement along with it We would be looking for that move into 55. Okay, we didn't really get what we're kind of looking for here Just shy of 50 and then that was it now We can you can see we're down at the bottom of the range again here And High liquidity starting to come in here at 4644 and a little bit of a bounce so far Let's see. There was a question earlier and just and Craig it was just because you had Mentioned it before the webinar just before the webinar So let me let me read it out loud and then we'll take a look at it and go through it here Since we're not looking for too much here at the moment Okay Let's see if these buyers can come back in and hit 50 again. I'm I'm I think we can do it here I just they're bidding up here. I just not quite getting buyers yet Okay, and then a move just up to 50 to begin with Anyway Craig's question here. I'm reading the order flow. I'm having a hard time telling if liquidity is affecting price or if Price is affecting liquidity at any given moment. It seems to occur simultaneously most of the time Please hear your thoughts on this. Okay, so the the answer here is To it's understanding the context here Right, so now they're bidding up here at 45. Look at they just added more in here Here are the buyers we're looking for we're already at 50 and beyond it and we're at 52 now as well Let's try to reach 55 now does 55 fit our higher time frame. Yeah, we were looking for 63 or so up here All right, so looking for this to break out Okay, so far so good. We're up at 55 already so Yeah looking for a bit of a pullback here and continuation up to 60 stop runs are starting to occur. That's good Hey, we're looking for that as well And we have some iceberg orders in here as well Okay, not a whole lot Looks like it's a lot, but it's not Yeah, it's just a blip here most icebergs are actually here I'm sorry here and they were selling All right, so Let's get back to Craig's question and let's just zoom in here and we're gonna we're gonna go through an exercise here So we're still looking for this to move to the upside. Hey, we're in an uptrend. The volume looks good. It's moving price and That answers part of Craig's question it is volume that actually moves price Okay, liquidity Technically cannot move price at all. It can stop price from moving and that would be absorption All right, so that's a short answer, but it the the question is about the context. So for example And this is actually Craig. I would recommend watching part one of our educational course Hey understanding a market mechanics and how Liquidity that technically can't move price, but how it affects price Okay, so now we're gonna do is this exercise here is we're gonna take liquidity off of the chart Or I'm sorry volume off of the chart now. We're gonna look at just two elements here on bookmap chart We're just looking at pure price action here best bid and offer streaming And and liquidity here. All right, so here's our context look at they don't they want to be buyers here. It looks like They came into the book. They're front running this area here at 45 and a half And there's liquidity up here at 4650 Okay, now we're looking to see maybe in this area here a skew in this order book or supply and demand Now this kind of happened at the same time in fact, it looks like Sellers came in first Craig then liquidity came in so yeah a lot of times it is kind of like that but you'll see like how Liquidity comes in and then price reacts to it and that gives us a lot of insight Another thing that really gives us a lot of insight is liquidity that trans acts and Then what happens like high liquidity important liquidity that trans acts that is the event Then what happens after that? So see how these guys are pulling here. So let's see if we can come down into 43 25 Okay, they're adding more here on the offer at a lower area Okay, there's our 43 25 now it tested it. Did it trade it? I we don't have the volume on I we don't know It looks like it did Yeah, I would say it probably transacted only yeah 94. I mean that's not bad And how much was there earlier? It was about 130 so most of that transacted that gives us some insight. All right, so let's see what happens after that event Okay, so far. We're still at that area here. So they're Likely is some more selling pressure Hey, here come here come the buyers actually So that this is what we're kind of looking for is there more selling pressure or our buyers interested here Okay, so a little more on the offer here Little more on the bid here. So we're not getting too much out of this right now Well, they continue to offer at lower areas here But the bid keeps on jumping back in so we're just kind of kind of even with the slant to the downside here Okay, now see I'm starting to pull a little bit there. That's kind of interesting as price is coming up They're starting to pull away. All right. So what all right? Here comes a move back down lower still All right, so now I'm really curious now since we're getting down into some of these levels here Let's look at our previous price action and swings in here and structure. Okay, there's a swing down here at 40 4640 and there's another one down here Okay, so there's there's a few in here here as well and then we're breaking this trend line So again, we're looking at market structure here And some of these swings Okay, now what we want to understand is some of these areas of market structure is is this liquidity getting filled looks like it again Okay, and there's still more selling pressure here. Okay, so we're looking for still to go lower. There's 38 Okay But you see how balanced the book is in here and there there's our imbalance right there right there Right, so this is this is where how to how to read this or you know start to use this to to your advantage Now it's happening very quickly and these guys are back out So it's likely to come right back down again, right, but we need to see if they stay in the order book here Okay, so let we can go through this here and they're starting to stay in here Okay, so now do we get buyers here if we get some buyers up here? They should come right back up to 4350 or at least 43 Okay, these guys need to stay in the order book and the reaction to this needs to be price moving up See they're not really staying in the book. They're kind of fickle in here This is they're starting to show a little more action though More on the bid here Okay, and they and again he pulled now they're even pulling down here So, you know, they don't really want to be buyers here But we're waiting and watching here because it's getting kind of interesting now. We're down at some of these levels here Still pulling still pulling 35 is even pulling down here. There we go. So it continues to move on lower Okay, now, let's see if we get a skew in the order book here and if we can come back up into about this 37 level here Okay, looking for maybe a skew. Here's our skew. There's our reaction. We're just looking for about here 37. That's it Now this is a pullback though, right the trend is down Decisively the here's our skew again right here. Okay. Now. What's the reaction to price? Okay, see they pulled Okay, we we got to our 37 now This isn't really you know, I'm sorry Craig. This is not the best example This is starting to tell us something. See how they coming in at 30 is 36 and three-quarters though Okay, here's our skew again. Now. Do they stay in the order book is key and what's the reaction price? Looks like sellers want to take these guys on There they go Okay, now what happened after that is there's still more selling down here. Let's take a look Are they adding more on the bid and what's the reaction to are on the offer and what's the reaction to that? Okay, see how it's balanced right now more or less We're looking for an imbalance and here's a bit of an imbalance right here Okay, and they're pulling up here. They're adding here great. We're finding buyers great should come up to 40 should go up to 41 Okay, it made it up to 40 now. Do they still add in here? See we want to see if we get a strong breakout of this area and then they're adding more up at some of these areas here in the order book and See look at this kind of wall of liquidity now. It's not looking too good for it to continue I don't say it's dark down here. I think sellers are going to drive it right back down to 36 And it doesn't take a whole lot of selling to move it back down into these areas here Okay, now it only moved down to about 37 Okay, this is turning into a pretty big wall here and they seem to be interested in selling here Okay, that's a lot of levels of liquidity here, right? And they're pulling here On the bid. All right. So let's they're adding even more in here Okay, now what we want to understand as well in here is like this dark area You know when we see a move back up and it's dark underneath it's it's pretty easy to drive it right back down Okay, so we want to be aware of that because like if they're not going to bid up and stay in the order book to support this Uh, it can easily move back down to lower levels of liquidity Okay, now here this is getting interesting. Let's see see the reaction now this came in a little bit later But this came in first This little area right here. Okay. Do you see that distinction? Okay, so it's a pressure here. There's buying demand here What is the reaction of price? Okay, we started to see it moving up here So we're looking for it to trade up into like first probably would be up here at 40 And then maybe 40 and a half or maybe try to tangle with some of these guys up here If we still even see higher demand at a higher level here Okay, now it was very short lived. It did make it to 40 though Okay, then these guys pulled now if they stayed in the order book it would be different right So this is what we're trying to gauge we're trying to gauge and understand the the condition of the auction in here The context of it Okay, here's a bit of a skew coming in. Let's see. How does how does price react to that? Let's see them drive it back down to 32 I want to see these guys now. This is again like if we're you know, usually the order book is pretty balanced Right and and this is how we can also look at it this way here We can insert a new column in here and we can add in here Um, I'll configure it to show aggregation Okay to look at kind of order book skew Uh as well and you can see a skew down here. Look at this, right? What's the reaction to this liquidity down here? We're starting to find buyers Okay, they should be able to move it up to 37 then No, we're see you see the context here. Sellers are interested in this liquidity down here In fact, this is kind of distracting at the moment So the liquidity is down here Now they're bidding up here Okay, do we find buyers? No, not really All right, so sellers are going to go for this liquidity here most likely And then they'll try to trade these guys polling now And adding back in Now they're adding more here. What's the reaction? Okay, we found some sellers interested in that liquidity Do we get more sell if we get more sellers here at 32 and a half? We should be able to trade back down into these levels here Okay, now we're finding buyers And they're pulling up here I mean, this is really back and forth action in here. I mean, no question about it and it changes It's an auction is changing Okay, now we're looking at it on these smaller timeframes and going through several examples back and forth, etc Okay, see it pulled again. Let's see. Do they do they add here on the bid a little bit? What's the reaction buyers? Okay, let's see if we can try to get higher here then Now let's see how they kind of pulled in here. Now, you know, this looks very fickle We're going back and forth and yeah, it's changing. It should go this way should go that way We can zoom out and we can look at this on much much higher timeframes right and start to understand these levels So 30 Now let's match 30 liquidity up with our market structure. Here it is Here's the swing down here here. We can use this new feature in the heat map Uh to uh lessen the uh the heat map Uh transparency and let's draw a line in Okay, that's why this liquidity is here. It's this swing right here Okay, there's another swing down here And this is where we had that we see this breakout to the upside for the day All right, so now, uh, let's see what what happened We're below some of these other swings here that we kind of marked up And we we still went lower Okay, now what about this liquidity down here? at this level they are, um uh They seem to be uh, they're adding or i'm sorry the liquidity is above the swing actually This is kind of bullish here. This is bullish. We if that means that they're trying to buy basically Uh In front of like, you know, they're supporting it here basically Else you'd see them be below that area And want to buy it at a deeper discount here. So this is kind of bullish liquidity in here It's even more bullish. We just kind of missed it When they start to come into the order book like this or no, we did see this we did see this Okay, so now we have bigger picture understanding of liquidity here Okay, now what was the reaction? Well, we've we found our buyers here Okay to this liquidity took a little while a little back and forth in here And we've come up to the top of 40 now the range here Any questions on this? Okay, so we're kind of you know, we're reading a lot of little nuances in here And I know that that can be kind of confusing Uh, we can zoom out though and we look at higher time frames And we just went and went through this higher liquidity and now that that seems to be working pretty well here They're buying in front of the swing here and they were bidding up down here And this is a nice block of liquidity Whereas we saw the other block of liquidity up here Now on the higher time frame this block of liquidity. We can see what happened Right price went down and traded into this liquidity here And then it kind of dribbled down a little bit further Hey, they're coming in again. See them coming in again. Okay. There's our imbalance in the order book Let's see if sellers now can trade it right back down into 30 and 31 Okay, looking for it. Okay. Now we're going to look at some nuances in here as well Okay, when does that heat map start to give us some some more insight? Okay, here they come a little bit on the offer here. What's the reaction? They pulled They're adding on the bid. So this is back and forth in here right now Okay, looking for something looking for a distinction here Okay, this is a distinction right here. See that distinction And look at them. Look at the movement. Okay, it's not much of one. It's just it's a smaller one Okay, bigger picture though. We're still looking for this to fill down here 30 31 and here we go here. Here they here they go Uh, moving down on the offer and they're just kind of staying here in the book at between 30 and 31 Now they're starting to add in a little bit Okay, so they want to be buyers here Here's our distinction on the offer sellers. We should be able to trade into this now Looking for the move into 30 and 31 And there it is beautiful, okay, so Uh stop run as well now. We're not looking at volume here at all All right, we're just looking at the order book and price action relationship of this context and of the price action and structure of price action And and liquidity within that structure All right, let's zoom out. Let's take a look All right, so now we're getting down in some really interesting areas. We're down below this. We should see some pretty big stop runs in here Uh, look at other price action or price structure elements here. We drew one up here around 24 Uh, we also have another one right around here where it broke out from at 27 Now is there liquidity in those areas here? Not really not yet Okay, so we're kind of looking and and and waiting and watching here Okay, we're also looking for a potential false breakdown here. Why we just filled this liquidity in here price didn't drop that significantly Okay, now, what if we get you know, we'd be looking for our green dots in here and we can see the bars here So they are in so we're looking actually for a move to the other side of the range here Uh, maybe up to 46 40 again See how we're back in the range here after this liquidity got filled Okay, now we got to get through this most traded level right here And we got to get through it on by volume size and we don't have volume to look at right now So we're going to look at liquidity Okay, are they bidding up here? Are they pulling on the offer a little bit? Yeah Now they pulled here though. We need to see them stay in the order book here We need to see these guys pull and we want price to start moving up Okay, this block here of liquidity they need we need to I want to see them lift it and I want to see it come up into 40 And nothing doing right now Okay, order book looks pretty balanced We're looking for that imbalance Okay, it's a little it's imbalanced on the on the offer here. So let's see if price can move right back down to 30 then Okay, now look at that. They're interested again here between 30 and and now a little bit lower though 28 Okay, here's our move into 30 So we didn't get up to 40. We got up to here Our previous line in here Do you guys find this helpful?  I I I Okay, I missed the some of the questions in here. Um I scrolled up and left it scrolled up. So I didn't see any questions Sorry, so David let's see can you again those liquidity lines also be stops? No, no, no There there never stops. Uh, it well unless it's a stop limit, um Or limit no, I'm sorry, it wouldn't even be that wouldn't even be the correct answer There are limit buys and limit sells and that's it That's all it is a limit, um, a stop limit is it turns into a limit once it is, um Triggered or unpacked as soon as the market hits it or some sort of Condition, maybe it's pips away and then it triggers or something, right? We have that functionality in bookmap. Uh, you can have your stop limit triggered a certain number pips away if you want Okay, vintage you you find this helpful good. All right Ah, okay scotty, uh The context has been invaluable. Uh, do you Have recommendations for lagging bookmap for a lagging bookmap my bookmap lag. Oh, um, I should not be lagging at all Scotty, I don't know what the um, why uh, 50 50 or 60 seconds depending on the market. Um Please reach out to support and get this fixed immediately. Um this is uh It it it might not be bookmap at all. Um, it could be so many different things Uh, it might be it could be your your, you know computer hardware. It could be your connection to the internet Uh, especially if you're wirelessly connected, uh immediately. Um, uh fix that by connecting directly All right support then Tell them that it's escalated escalated. I mean like, uh, here I'll ping them right now. Um, and and tell them because Yeah, that that's essential. Uh, there is I can show you actually, um Let's see, um Some some resources though, I think they're going to point you to these resources to be honest, uh immediately It like I'm going to um, okay All right, so uh, hold on a minute here and let me find those resources And uh, sorry guys, we're kind of missing some moves here. It looks like, um Yeah, scotty, let me let me let me take a quick look at the price action here and we'll get to it All right, so yeah, we're below that area. We're below this area here. Okay, so uh, and there still seems to be selling so Uh, we're looking for maybe the move back down to our next level and that and the equities here around 25 So let's see if we can move back down there Okay, now keeping a close eye on this though We're down at some of these interesting levels and we know that some of this liquidity filled in here I mean, we can see the volume bar in here, but price moved into it and and this liquidity stayed in the order book So, you know going off of that and then also verifying it with a volume bar, uh, at least I know that they They they stayed in the order book here And got filled now that's important, right? So we're looking for false break breakdowns and potential for move back into the range here Okay, and it kind of did it here. Well, it kind of did it a few different times It did it here. We were looking for that and we're looking for higher Um, and it's trying to do it again. It's still kind of fighting it here All right, so we want to take a look at what's going on in the auction currently All right, and let's get to Uh, this is where you can find out about it go to uh knowledge base here, uh on the more button Okay on uh bookmap.com the more button knowledge base here Takes you here. Uh, and then we're going to go through their system requirements here So you might want to take a look at that first Okay, uh, and then we're going to scroll down here to Help the help section here. Okay, so book map performance faqs Okay, click on that And then go through this there's many different on the on the right margin here You'll see the different sections to go through Okay, so Market data is lagging. Okay right here. This will be important. Okay, so, um, those are the first, uh, You know kind of uh resources to check out scottie as well as i've pinged support. Okay, so, uh, Hopefully that helps you out Yeah, yeah, you got it. You oh you got a new machine. Okay. You should not should not be an issue Yeah, it might be your connection Um, it might be like, uh, it could be a whole host of things All right, so we're trading back down into liquidity here at 27 Okay, they're staying in the order book. Look at the distinction here. See how they're staying in the order book See how they're adding now they're adding kind of below it here So it's getting interesting very interesting in here We're seeing and let's just zoom out We're seeing some interest on on the bid here now. Let's get that context again Okay, now we were kind of in that myopic view there now that we're zoomed out a little bit more How important is this liquidity? Well, it's not it looks pretty good. It's kind of look at You know, they keep on adding in here. So that looks pretty good Um, but it wasn't in here for a long time. It's new liquidity So, you know Uh, it's these areas that have kind of stayed in the order book for a long long time and you know The market knows it can you know trade up to this cell Liquidity or supply up here. That's kind of more important. So this area here was more important Okay, now here we go with our false breakdown. Okay looking for our buyers looking for a move back up into Uh, the swing at at 36 here and then maybe we can get to 40 as well We've collected a lot of sellers down here They're moving prices moving pretty quickly Away from that area back into the range here and it's already made it back to point of control I want to see it go to the other side of the range Now the first other side of the range is right here and we're almost there at 36 The other the other one is here up at 40 Due to this this, um, kind of bigger range and bigger picture. I think we can make it to 40 Okay, based on the context of just structure And liquidity here now what's helping us out a ton is also the move this strong move here Okay, we don't know volume on it. We don't know what the volume dots look like in here We can look at the bars and that's kind of cheating But we we already know that like this is uh, this is pretty pretty strong move, right? So now we made it to our first target that would be 36 and it went up a little bit higher 37 Okay, now an initial pullback here And I'm looking again here. Let's see. I'm looking for more buyers to support it at a higher level And uh, I want to see a move back up into see if we can get back to 40 here Okay, now I don't like that. We're below the point of control here, right Most traded level now. I know that has nothing to do with the heat map Okay, the heat map is saying they're they want to be buyers here and they just pulled so they Don't really want to be buyers here. They want to be buyers a little bit lower here Okay, and they're adding on the on the on the offer as well Okay, let's look for an imbalance here And we want to look at the at reaction to this imbalance here Uh, uh rambo mambo why why aren't the volume dots on today because it was a question If you maybe look up uh Earlier we can stop this exercise. It's a worthy exercise to go over again and again um, it was Craig, uh, who asked this question? Okay And that's why we're going through it Okay, I'm still looking to see this we got to get above point of control here Uh, and we need to see it on Well in this view, we need to see a pretty big imbalance in in the order book I like that they're pulling here already at 35 I want to see a skew here and I want to see the price move up We're kind of getting it We see a little bit of a skew underneath here, but they pulled now We had insight to this potentially playing out already because they pulled here And they look like they're kind of serious in here, right? And then they pulled Now they didn't add too much on the offer or in the bid. I don't like that, but they're they're pulling here Okay, great. You know, I'm looking for them to add on the bid at a higher level And I want price to come up into like 37 38 and 40 Okay, now everything got um, kind of upheavaled here this guy came in and You know kind of spoiled the party here Price came back down a little bit and then this guy came in on the offer here now See how see how this had it this had an influence on price Okay, this is this is advertising here They're pulling here price moved back up and then like get these guys trapped And then someone comes in on the offer like this Now they're trying to get it back down to 27 Now let's take let's talk about some some strategy in here. Okay. We're down at 27 looking for 25 now too Okay, now what happened in here? Well, this is a classic order flow Maneuver around point of control So this is where like, you know how scott yesterday is looking at lug levels And then he's looking at the order flow around those lug levels Here we're looking at point of control and the order flow around that point of control And here's the outcome. So this kind of like got people to to you know, get going up this direction here Slam the door. This is like a book flip in in essence Uh, you know slam the door here and get some sellers here looking for the move lower. Okay now Suppose we bought into that advertising in here Okay, you looked at it. You saw it. Okay, great a move up. Boom. We should get it. We should get to 37 and then 40 doesn't work out Okay, get out of the position Look for going the opposite direction. Now. I know that's not easy to do Uh and shift mentally like that and that's why like I recommend in these webinars of not trading Because uh, you know, how do you how do you handle something like that? What's a lot easier when you're not in a position? Okay, and learn from it now look for this next time When you're trading Okay, I mean this is a classic dupe right right here Okay, pull that liquidity. I would have loved to see them add more on the bid here. They didn't really Uh and price kind of floated back up here You know capture some some longs in here if you can and then just slam the door here Now what was the reaction to this liquidity? And not much actually didn't really do much Until they actually pulled and then likely this is just a This is probably just a limit Now there's there's a stop run in there, but this is just a market sell pushing it lower likely Right just moving it away Okay, but anyway, you know, you can see how other other traders kind of tune into this Uh and start to get reactive with it As well as stops being hit All right, so craig. I think I I hope I answered your question in here. Uh, we spent almost Most of the webinar going through this exercise. Uh, it's really great though It really you know really helps you focus and understand liquidity And why that's so important is because what have we been looking at for years? Maybe decades We've been looking at price action and volume We haven't been looking at liquidity liquidity was totally separate in a in a uh a separate chart Okay, your dome your level two There was no there was no education on liquidity And understanding the context and and the importance of liquidity So this is why this this exercise is really good. Now, uh, if this is confusing for a lot of uh traders Then a really good exercise is to Don't do this one Do the opposite Put on volume dots Take off the heat map Have just two elements here and understand the context of volume dots and price action Now here come our buyers. Where do we want to go top of the range here? And maybe we can even break it here. Okay point of control back to 35 37 That's what we'll be looking for. Why look at the buyers here Okay, now we don't have liquidity. We don't have that kind of to lean on are they bidding up underneath here? Did they just slam on the on the offer here? We don't we don't know Right, we just have to context of two This is kind of like your um I like your footprint chart basically Uh, except the footprint chart is on bar data, which is aggregated You might not see some of these smaller structures in here Okay, still looking for them to try to trade back up into 35 and 37 here Still looking for it Okay, just based on these two elements structure and volume Okay, we got up to almost 35 still looking for it. I think they can think they can pull this off No, it mean this is kind of the last gasp for the for those buyers here Right here where they broke out from now. They need to get back up above here pretty quickly Now let's see 35 looking for it should be able to hit it and then 37 I think We can get up to 37 here No, I can't do it so far All right, so the insight we're getting from this volume is like we're not finding buyers actually now looking for Sellers to break this line here and come back down to 27 and a half Why we can't get through it? We're not finding the buyers. We're looking for here looks pretty good Here they're trying and they couldn't do it. They can't do it again They're making a lower high looking for our sellers here And looking for them to try to trade it back down to the lower ends of the range here Okay, I guess 27 would be the 27 and a half would be the first stop Okay, next would be 25 and let's zoom out a little bit more Yeah, those two look good Okay, first one 27 and a half right here Okay, just reading the context of these two elements here Structure and volume okay our levels important levels and volume Now what happened in here is was with it was within the structure Okay breakout great above this pull back Even a higher high here.  Here's our retest back up here And do we get our buyers? No Do we get our sellers? Yeah starting to get sellers in here Okay, so now we're looking for a lack of buying Which we're not getting at the moment Okay, and we're looking for more sellers So this is this is convoluting things a little bit this buying up here But let's see if we get our seller we now now if if I were looking for the drop into 27 I have to have sellers down here at 30 Or even 29 and and three quarters Yeah, so yeah, see how this kind of convoluted that here Finding buyers back up above So this was it's not high probability and we're looking for another scenario here sellers down here We didn't get them Okay, now this original move looks like very likely to unfold here the original move back up into 37 here It made it up to 35 Okay, I still want to see you get higher though. Now. Let's look at our point of control Again, this is pretty bearish actually it made it up to that point of control and it immediately sold off Okay, so in the bigger picture You know, we're looking very closely at this little area here at 35 Okay, can't get can't get above it. We need to get above it on buying Okay, there we go now. It's looking pretty good. All right. So now they should be able to to pull it back on up into 38 and 40 Okay, see them move it away like that. Okay Okay, again understanding the context here In this case the context is point of control And the volume around that that context Okay, there's our move into 40 All right. Now these things happen quickly, right? But we're we're calling it out in real time here and we're looking for that scenario first hand And what that scenario looks like and this is it Okay, we're looking for volume above this point of control. It was bearish here for a bit It's like, whoa, wait a minute. They can't even on this retest. They can't get above point of control Okay, well once they came back up again and we started to see that. Yes We're looking for the move all right, so Now we've just made it back up to 40 here, right and now our bigger picture is Of the context of these two elements It's just we're back up to to 40, you know looking for a bit of a pullback here Now if we and and not much maybe maybe back down to just about here um, you know, maybe 35 um And maybe a needs to bounce off of point of control again, right? This would be a pullback To point of control now. What if we get sellers down below here? This would be a false breakout here Okay, so we need to be and and this is how you can you can consider weaving trade management into Uh your order flow readings here Okay, so uh, so for example You know, you're looking for that breakout and you're looking for the move to the other side of the range But that was it at the moment. We don't know uh after that Okay, so now are you still bullish in here a bigger picture boy? I'm you know I wouldn't be um I I like this move here But I am looking for the pullback and it's now back in the range and we're actually below point of control All right, so this is a false breakout Okay, looking for these sellers to try to drive it away now very quickly down to 25 Uh, and we're back down into these these areas here. Okay back down to uh, uh, 17 or 15 Maybe lower the day Okay, it can't seem to stay above point of control Okay, so again structure and volume around these structural structural areas here Not only structure in terms of point of control, but ranges The the swing here and the swing down here. So here's our move just about into 25 There it is Okay, so how how can you consider trade management around some of these areas? Uh without going mad We'll just try to trade for the the and this is something alan. I know alan's in here That alan asked like a couple years ago And the answer was well just look for the higher probability Outcomes and scenarios and when they start to unfold Look for that and look for a minimum target You know take a minimum target Uh and Once you once you take like a minimum target, then you can like uh, or that can be your full full Target, you know, just get in and get out all in all out In fact, that might be the easiest once, uh, you know, it becomes more advanced and and uh, you're more, uh, You've seen many instances of this you can consider going for you know, easing out of it Scaling out one leg holding it for for bigger uh bigger move You're not that old alan, but it was more than a year ago for sure. I I know that Okay, david that's a good question So you're trying to feel how to get a feel for how to implement this in your trading. Um, well I'm I'm hoping that this is starting to cover it You know, you're looking for these kind of minimum, uh moves that are higher probability And then we don't really know after that and unless You know, that's when we need to get more context Uh, but we do know is if we can get back down below this kind of point of control here and we see some selling in here We're looking for the other side of the range If we're looking for a pullback in for it to bounce off of this area here 35 Okay, now this is it's a little more convoluted this one here just because uh, this was the move, uh It's still within a range here, right? It made it above point of control, but it didn't really break out from the range All right, we want to see it break out from the range See how this this move here sets up this, you know, pretty pretty nice move to the downside now Look at the selling here Right now look at the selling and where is it going? Okay, lots of selling. Do we get price movement with it though? Not yet Why look at this huge iceberg just coming in huge This is like 2000 They're absorbing here Now we don't even have the heat map on but we know this is absorbing look at the size of these dots here And look at how how much price moved it didn't move much at all Okay, so we know that a larger player and iceberg orders are getting filled in this area here So is it good question david? I think maybe I'll cover more and more about the trade Maybe the usage use scenarios here The the the important part though. I think first is um To be able to read the order flow And go through scenarios and and and kind of go through this analysis of like wow, we see this Now let's what are we looking for? What's the scenario here? See because we see all this absorption, but we're right back down here again Now i'm looking now. What if we get more sellers here? Well, then they should be able to drive it lower Order flow rules here first iceberg is nice. It's nice to see that But we want we want to see buyers above this area in here if it's going to move away from This range here. We're not getting that. We're still seeing more selling pressure in here So sellers ought to move this lower still Okay, now, how can you get a position on it? Well? Yeah, you know, I don't know if you'd be willing to maybe take a risk on this one But yeah, we're looking for it to go lower Right now. Yeah, due to there there being a lot of absorption a lot of icebergs We're at the end of the kind of bottom of the range here. It's possible to come right back in And and find buyers try to reach right back up into value area here at 35 All right, we we not to see the sellers move it away on on power So that's uh And you know is so it's a little more convoluted here for sure And what does that mean? Well, lots of things can happen And we don't we don't think it's a high probability at this point Let's take a look at your image here, David. Okay And going through these scenarios, I think is key Okay, so let's see. What did you say here? Um What happened here at 46 23 is exactly what I was wondering about in combination with the swings. It's so conflicting for me still Okay Well, yeah, I mean traded into high liquidity here Right Uh, yeah, they pulled added back in. Yeah, I mean is this is So this is a little confusing. I mean like, uh, yeah, you know traded into this area here And we got a little bit of a bounce out of it It's not really telling us much here Okay, so, uh You know, they kind of added lower now What if they came in and added a bunch more up in here though Like in this area here and we found a lot of buyers then is telling us something a lot more so, you know, it It's it's uh more likely for a move to take place It's kind of understanding the footprints here of the uh, that's a bad word to use. Um You know, um trying to see the tracks of of the of the traders And uh kind of sniff it out here like what what direction might they be going here And um and trying to get a feel for for the market and the auction We can go through something. Um, I think a lot simpler Let's just look at a specific level that's important and then order flow around the level And just keep it at that instead of all this back and forth in here and yes, it should go here It should go there or whatever like, um, let's just look at specific levels In a range and then that's it and then order flow around it Okay, so now we've come back down into this kind of um, little high volume node down here Okay, and we're below a range here Okay, well, all right. So the scenario at this at this low here Is we're still in a downtrend, but what if we get buyers back up here at 25? Then we're kind of back into this range And I'd be looking for a move back to 30 Okay, so that's the scenario Else I'm looking for Uh more sellers down here at 20 and to drive it lower And now that would be low of day Right Yeah down here around 15 Okay, so let's look at let's go around let's go over volume and and let's add the heat map back on here now We're going to look at everything Okay, anyway, just a note before we put the heat map back on This is something to consider You know looking at these two elements and starting to understand this context really well Before adding a third context that third context can you know really adds a lot more into it and makes it You know more more complex for sure Okay, so we just filled this liquidity. Okay, so now we're looking for move back in. Let's see if we can get our buyers here Okay, we're back in the range now. We need to see buyers up here Okay a lot at 22 and a half Okay order book's not telling us much right now We're not seeing the buyers We're drifting up there, but we're not seeing the buyers Okay, they're adding more on the offer here Okay, so yeah, nothing nothing shaking Okay, now they're adding a little more on the bid here We want to see them add up higher than that up here. Maybe maybe around 19 or 20 I want to see them pull it 23 and 25 Okay, so we're at our swing. This is the level we're looking at you know our 20 to 18 level here Okay, now we're looking at our swing and we're looking for a move back into the range here Okay, these are our levels here And not we didn't get the buyers. We're looking for still Starting to bid up a little bit Nothing shaking, you know, no no no no edge right now We're looking at our You know, this is our level down here Round around let's call it 18 and three quarters Okay, up to 23 and three quarters And we're looking for order flow around it here Okay, so here here come some sellers here that hadn't taken on this liquidity yet They're going to take them on and they're probably going to trade it lower here Okay, there's our move into 18 and now This this move below the the range here How much selling is that and how much of a movement is it? It's not much and see how the buyers are right back in the middle of the range here In fact, this has already been a move back to this smaller high volume node right here Or just about just about close close enough for me All right now we got our sellers trying to move it away here. They're trying All right, I think they should they should be able to move it down There they go. So looking we're looking for low of day 15 Hey, and then the liquidity is down a little bit lower though 14 Okay, now we're getting a battle here and and we would kind of anticipate this battle We've got a few different things going on for this battle to start to unfold here. First off, we're at the low of the day Right, that's that's uh, they're gonna there's going to be a big battle at you know highs and lows of the day Secondly, we're very close to the London close on Friday Okay, so there's going to be you know a lot of a lot of back and forth in here Okay. Now what happened in here? We had high liquidity Filled we found sellers And now what if we get buyers back up above this little trans this transaction right here? Okay looking for a move right back into Uh, yeah this swing and also this point of control or this high volume node Okay, looking for it. See how they pulled here. We just need to find a few more buyers at 17 and we can move A little bit of skew on the bid. There we go. Let's see the move. Let's see back to 20 Okay, liquidity is here at 20 See how we're above this area here Okay, and look at see how did not here now they're starting to support it on on the bid Not much not much at all. See how this is just not as high probability They're not really supporting it here and it just exhausted out up here as well Okay, so the order flow around this event here for a move back in it's not looking too good It still may do it But yeah, you know the pieces that we put together in this area here It's not looking so great. So, you know And yet yet it followed it followed through to 20 okay, so uh There's the move. However, like it just doesn't look good. Um exhausted here Not much support on on the uh On the bid which means sellers in these areas can drive it down here very very quickly Okay, here we go again more buyers. Okay, this is starting to shape up better Okay, looking for the move back to this 22 and at 22 even Okay, we really want to see them on the bid here at a higher level And to pull here on the offer and we're not we're not seeing it. See it's just not as high probability. That's all It's like, okay. Well, we're looking for order flow around these levels here Okay, we we we saw something kind of nice that look like might move back up into 20 and then we kind of bailed on that idea in here Just wasn't looking good Uh, yeah, these webinars are recorded and posted So the you can find it in this thread here. Just scroll up a bit. You'll find it. Uh, thanks. Thanks for the kind words there All right, David. I don't know if that helps you David a bit. Um, but uh, we'll go go over it again You know more and more like here's here's a double bottom pattern You know at the at the low of the day here, uh, and uh, the the context is well, we found sellers here Okay, but see how the look at buyers snapped it away very very quickly Okay, so they maybe maybe the I I don't like it still but they have the potential to move it right back up Uh to you know higher the range here. This is a false breakdown Right. So looking for buyers to try to move it back up into areas where they can cover And that would probably be up here around 20 again But see see how we're just not finding that buying interest really is some but see how it's dark still underneath here There a little help there now on the bid Pushing pulling they're pulling on the offer. They should be able to get up to about 20 Okay, let's see it. Let's see it buyers Back up to 20 or 21 now No, they cannot do it Uh, this is that I mean there's it was starting to look okay in here Now we're right back now that now they should be able to do it Let's see a little bit more on the on the bid here that ought to seal the deal And they're not they're not on the bid So another another rotation, right? We're looking for that order book to kind of like give us some some help here All right, let's see if we can get our buyers here looking for a skew in the book right around here around 16 and a half or so Nothing nothing so far in in fact exhaustion Actually looking for potential for sellers here at 16 and a quarter Yeah, all right, so it's sellers here Let's see if they can drive it now lower back down into maybe 14 Okay, now again, this is not really high probability stuff like the order book is is you know It's not really helping us too much. It's kind of dark on on either side. Still we're going to read the order flow Right, we're making we couldn't get back up here We're look we're pulling for these buyers. They couldn't do it It's starting to exhaust out up here. We're looking for our sellers Uh, and they they at least made it back down to about 15 here And but the liquidity is still down here at 14 Okay, they should be able to hit it again here Sellers into this is into this liquidity here now The the the book and balance here it it was more balanced to the to the to the bid side here right You can see it here. There is it is again. This is this is what we're looking for earlier Now what's the reaction to it and there's our buyers Okay, so there and there's a nice there's the nice move back up into 20 Okay, see see how this this can help you here This was this was a convoluted move though in here like, you know Uh, we're looking for buyers up here. We were looking for the support It did not come in had to drop a few more times here. We're looking for the drop lower here Uh, and that it didn't really pan out It came back down to about 14 and three quarters And then uh, uh, we had this skew in the book here Hard hard to catch hard to catch that one Hey, but this came in first before the the volume move here though. You can see that And that's a that's a beautiful stop run too beauty yeah, that's uh 600 or so stops. All right, so we our london close is just uh just upon us here. So, uh, You know this volatility kind of occurring or kicking up at the at the close is uh Anticipated so, uh, let's uh, we'll end the webinar So we would go in about an hour and a half almost hour and 25 minutes Went through a few different exercises looking for some of these moves to unfold We went over some higher time frame stuff, but mostly it was exercise on reading the order flow Uh of the um The order book and how that affects price uh, and then also about the The volume and how that affects You know price or the structure Uh, so these two elements together now Uh, I want to I want to make a point clear though Okay, we're going through These three elements structure volume, uh and um The the liquidity or the supply and the demand Okay, now If you're a pattern trader Okay, you're looking at bottom double bottoms and tops and flags and Penance and wedges and you know all of this kind of stuff head and shoulders Uh, it is the order flow within those patterns that you want to watch Okay, and you want it you want to be uh, you know kind of keyed into This is where this is the way you trade you're looking for a confirmation of a head and shoulders Look at the order flow to help you confirm that that will make a big big difference now Suppose you are a volume profile trader Okay, we've covered a little bit of it here, but not much All right. Now use your strategies within volume profile. Maybe you read Dalton. Maybe you read uh a Stadelmeyer Uh, now use some of those ideas But look at the order flow within those ideas And this is where you're going to get the edge like on this high higher time frame here Yeah, this looks great for a move right back up to point of control here around 35 Okay, see the buyer is coming in look at look at the bid here See how they're underneath here on the bid and we're finding our buyers great Let's move on up into most traded level or um, you know value areas And so there's your strategy together with the order flow Okay, so takes know those strategies very very well Uh know where you usually get in and head and shoulders or whatever Uh and uh, uh, you know now look at the order flow to confirm it Okay, so we so we just did it here Uh with volume profile very very quickly You know look look at the buyers coming in right and we're above our little areas here a structural This was a false breakdown of this little structure Seeing some pretty big volume and they're supporting it on the bid here Still finding buyers. These are Responsive buyers. We want to have them trade back to about 35 Okay, looking for this to unfold. Okay, this is looking higher probability on this time frame Hey because of the volume and and and the order book and we're already back in the structure here So there there's your your um putting together your um volume profile Along with your order flow Okay, all right guys. Uh, yeah have a good weekend everybody. We'll wrap it up and this will be on the Recorded youtube page here Give it a few hours or so. I'll put it up and you can review it if you like Okay, let's see here. Um, Alan. Do you get a post? Oh, uh, okay Okay, yeah, I'll take a look Alan. Um Oh moderator stuff. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, sure Oh tom. Okay. Yeah. So, uh, nice to see you in here tom. So, um Uh All right, this is I was worried about this from the get go. So are you gonna make it out of costa riga or not? um You know, I can you even find a flight So, uh, anyway, I hope so. Uh, we we got you scheduled for the 18th Now tom is going to be streaming and he's going to be going through exactly what we just talked about Uh, he's going to be talk. He's going to be talking about, um Uh volume profile. He's a volume profile trader Okay, and then he's going to be talking about the order flow within it to give those insights Okay, so we're getting a pullback here already. All right, so it's, you know Still still, uh This is still in play. It's just a pullback here Uh, then now we're looking for buyers to and end the bid here to support it again to come right back up Uh into 27 then 30 and then you know back into like 35 or so. Yeah, I know david like, uh Well, anyway, it's not a bad place to be stuck. That's for sure, uh tom. So enjoy it while you can Uh, and uh, no worries. I mean we'll get started when when you get back. Uh, and um and and take it from there So yeah, have a good weekend everybody and we'll catch up Next week. All right. Bye. Bye