Good evening, and thank you very much and welcome for coming out tonight on this very somewhat a little bit warmer than usual, but still chilly January evening. This is our community conversation, we're called Community Conversation 2.0, this is an opportunity for us to come back after a few years of Thrive 2027 getting started and really sort of not only check in with you all about what has been happening with Thrive 2027, but also hear from you about some of the issues that are important to you. In terms of what, and for those of you who don't know, I do this every time, my name is Ronald Jarrett and I'm Director of Public Policy and Advocacy at United Way of Greater Portland, and so the purpose of this evening is really to, as I mentioned earlier, come together to have a conversation. We're going to do a number of interactive activities tonight, and so the program is going to go until about seven o'clock, and one of the things we're going to do is we're going to hear from Ann Dalton, who's going to be sharing with us, Ann Dalton is on our Thrive 2027 Council, and we'll be sharing with us her experiences on the Council and what it means to her, we're going to do a little exercise with the minty meter, and for those of you who don't know, I'm not going to spoil it, it's quite an experience, it's pretty fun. We're going to talk to, we're going to hear from Senator Millet about LD1760, and that is a really important, well I'm going to save it for her talk, but it's a really interesting bill that a lot of folks are supporting to advance, to expand access to quality childcare, and so this is quite a piece of legislation. And we're going to have an opportunity, as a matter of fact, can I see a show of hands, who brought their cell phone with them? Excellent, and of those folks with their hands up, who likes to send text messages? Great, so we're going to do a little activity in which you will be able to actually do a little bit of advocacy using your phone, and it takes 30 seconds, but I'm going to save that until we get into that later, and also we're going to do a little bit of a breakout session, which is one of the reasons why I try to encourage folks to sit up front and around these tables, because it'll be a chance in small groups to hear from each other, what are some of the issues in the community, as well as what do you think we, as a community, should be doing about some of these issues, among others. And then we're going to wrap up and have a little bit of a reception where folks can, if you haven't already, do a bit of networking, and also an opportunity to ask us questions, some of the folks around the room. So one of the things I want to share, and the mid-term meter is going to be next, is more than three years ago, folks came together in hopes of ensuring Cumberland County is a thriving community, and the goal-setting process was overseen by the Greater Portland Community-wide Goal-setting Council, and this was representing many different voices across the community, across the county, and a cornerstone of this process were 90 community conversations, where we had with over 1,500 people, and we received over 550 responses to an online survey, and basically those conversations, we asked three questions, what kind of community do you want, what's stopping us from having that community, and what would make a difference. Now, three additional volunteer groups assessed community needs and aspirations, and using local data, we were able to end input from the community conversations and surveys and strategies, and looking at strategies that worked in other communities like ours, we were able to create the councils and the cabinets were able to create three goals that really guide the work that we're doing here, the first goal being giving kids a strong start, the second one is empowering neighbors to thrive, not just survive, and the third one being help us all live longer and better.  If you have your phone with you, if you can go to minty.com, that's M-E-N-T-I.com, and you're going to use, you're going to put in the code 1-4-6-4-8-2. So the first question is, what inspire you to be here today? So what inspire you to be here today? Thank you. Education, opportunity, community seems to be the big one. Connection, child care access, and information. These are all a lot of the reasons why folks came together around for our 2027 in the beginning, and it's really great to see that this is why we're all here today. And I believe there's a second question. All right, we've got a lot of really interesting answers here. I love a lot. That's great. Community guided goals, awesome. So as we see, there's a lot of different things. Almost as many people as are in the room have different understanding of Thrive 2027. And to help folks understand this a little bit better, I dug up the video that was created in response to the initial launch of Thrive 2027. It's less than five minutes, and if we can queue that up. Testing, testing. Good morning, everybody. Be celebrating what we're about to celebrate. We need more clarity of the process elements of this to make sure it is inclusive of process as possible. I think we would all agree that greater employment is a great place to live and work. I think we would also agree that some people are not doing well. For example, today, 7,970 urban and county Thrive owners do not agree at great level. Today, more than a half of our neighbors don't have sufficient resources for housing and other necessities. And today, like in the rest of America, our citizens with major mental illnesses are dying anywhere from 13 to 32 years younger than the rest of the gentle population. You know, greater poor living in Cumberland County are great places to live, but given these statistics, it's clear that we can do better, and we must do better, and we can. But only if we work together towards a shared vision and engagement voices into the work of a set-up shared culture. If we put people at the center of all of our combined or individual and collective efforts and engage two voices, we can make one way of change in our community. Together, we can make greater problems known as the place where everyone thrives. And that's why we're all here today, to announce 10-year community life goals for greater poor living. One, is that every child has quality learning experiences beginning at birth, and this is an absolutely critical goal because we all know that our kids are going to be leading our community tomorrow and we need them healthy, educated, and resilient. It's going to take all of us to ensure that even our youngest kids in Greater Portland have a strong start so that they can agree proficiently by the end of third grade because that is the mark when kids stop learning to read and switch over to reading to learn, which makes this an absolutely critical edge mark for life-long success. The goal, too, is that individuals and families have the education, employment opportunities, and resources to achieve financial stability because we know that when people have the education and employment opportunities to become financially stable, they can pay their rent on time, they can put food on the table. They're also better able to save for emergencies, buy a house, pay for college, and save for retirement. And this is why we need to all work together to ensure that more individuals and families in Greater Portland are financially secure and provide them with the educational and employment opportunities that they need. And finally, goal three is that children and adults will have the resources and opportunities they need to achieve optimal healthy lives. Today, too many lives are cut short in barriers to health such as untreated mental illness, substance abuse disorders, and domestic violence, and that's why we need to work to ensure that everyone in Greater Portland and Temple County has the opportunities to lead healthy lives and all that we can to reduce preventable early deaths. Just this morning, in 47, community-wide adults can get there. 10 years, the year 2027, you know, it might seem a long way, but the reason is that it will be here before we know it, which is why we need to begin acting today in order to impact Greater Portland tomorrow. Every single person to play, there will be and for every organization, whether that's a company or whether that's a service club or whether that's a book group, we really want everybody to feel that they have a way that they can contribute. We need everyone who cares about this community to get involved and stay at home. We need people, we need businesses, we need systems, we need organizations. We need everyone, but if we can do this and we believe we can, we will in fact thrive in 2027. We are absolutely excited to be part of this initiative and leading this initiative today. And, you know, we said today that we're all in. And today, the people, members of the community who came out today, showed us that they're all in. And we know that that momentum is just going to build and build and build. And together we're going to make an amazing community over the next 10 years. It's something really exciting and we're all very proud that we were here today in Congress for this beautiful day to celebrate that. You know, I've been with United Way of Greater Portland for about two years and have been a resident of Portland, Maine for, wow, almost four. And, you know, I haven't watched this video in quite some time, but after having been here for a while and doing this work, it is really inspiring to see the fact that so many different people from all over the region came together and to focus on three key goals that we know are actually going to move the needle and make life better for all of us. Some of us may not be some of the folks who are the beneficiaries, or rather the recipients of some of the support that whether our volunteer time, our community investments or advocacy helps to support. But we all benefit from this work and I think that's something that we should acknowledge because it's really important that the power of compassion, of empathy, and also of creating reachable goals and creating reachable programs and policies and efforts to affect this are so important and so needed. And so I just want to thank, first of all, Ann Dalton for being a part of this event. Ann is a senior leader with the Association of Junior Leagues International, and previously she was with Girls Club of New York. She was executive director there. She was Henry Street Solomon's director of Youth Employment Services and senior planner with the Vera Institute of Justice. Ann holds a BA in English from Cornell University and an MSW from Hunter College and is a graduate of the Carver Policy Governance Academy and the Institute for Civic Leadership's leadership intensive. She is a sustaining member of the Junior League of Portland and secretary of the Board of Portland Public Library. She's a board member of the United Way of Greater Portland and a member of Thrive 2027 Council. And I just want to introduce, thank you very much Ann for being here and sharing with us your story. Thank you, Ronald, but most importantly thank all of you for hanging in there and really being interested in where we're going with Thrive 2027. I've been asked to sort of reflect on three different aspects. Partly, you know, why do I support Thrive? I have to confess I was in at the very beginning on the Goals Council. What am I the proudest about in terms of what we've accomplished so far and then bringing it down a little bit to more specifically what we're going to talk about later tonight. How does Goal 2, which I am the co-chair of, that's the financial stability goal, how does that goal connect with the issue of ACES? Why do I support Thrive? Thrive is fundamentally to me, it's about how we show up together as a community. It's about inviting all who are interested to participate regardless of which sector you come from. It affirms that if we harness our efforts together and set specific goals, we all benefit. For Thrive today, that's about everyone having a good start in school, the ability to enjoy financial stability and the opportunity for us all to be healthier. But the facts are that not everyone in Cumberland County actually enjoys those benefits today. And as a result, all of us who live here are negatively affected. What Thrive offers is a community-built and data-driven way of tackling these persistent challenges. It's about doing things differently that I think notably sets Thrive 2027 apart. I think I'm proudest to go all the way back to the beginning and being incredibly heartened by the interest in the... across Cumberland County when we did the first set of community conversations that Ronald referenced earlier that led very significantly and very directly to the identification of those goals. Today, there are over 270 businesses, nonprofits, and government groups that have endorsed those goals, and of that number, over 140 have agreed to work together to achieve one or more of the outcomes. It's the willingness to come together and work differently to achieve the goals that I think is perhaps the most inspiring about our work. So what about goal two and ACEs? I think we all tend to think of ACEs as something that happens only to children.  That in turn means a greater likelihood that that adult will have difficulty in successfully obtaining employment and being financially stable. So goal two sees ACEs both from the perspective of supporting efforts at early detection and prevention that are primarily being addressed more specifically in goals one and goal three, as well as from the perspective of how an adult who experienced ACEs as a child needs to be supported to achieve financial stability. So that's why I'm involved with Thrive 2027, and thank you again for being here tonight. Thank you, Ann. And so one of the things that we wanted to do next, we have one more little minty meter exercise. Once again, we have a number of different answers here. Brain development is definitely an interesting one around, especially with regards to adverse childhood experiences and some of the solutions around that. And we'll be able to talk a bit about some of the A policy that we're looking to do around this. So moving past those actual implementation is definitely an important subject, an important question. Data is definitely a key part of this. We can talk more about that. And concrete strategies and implementation. Thank you. One of the things that we are looking at is, well, as Ann mentioned, we realize that adverse childhood experiences or ACEs is connected to so many of the challenges that we're trying to impact. And one solution for decreasing the instances of adverse childhood experiences is for a child to be in a high quality, safe, and affordable early care and education program. So recognizing this need and the need for meaningful workforce development, one of our legislators, including Senator Rebecca Millett, have co-sponsored LD1760. This is an act to support children's health, healthy development, and school readiness. And so I just want to first of all say thank you, Senator Millett, for being here tonight. And, you know, Senator Rebecca Millett is the State Senator for Maine's 29th District, and this includes South Portland, Cape Elizabeth, and parts of Scarborough. Now, she currently is Senate Chair of the Education and Cultural Affairs Committee and is serving her fourth and final term in the legislature. From 2004 to 2010, Senator Millett served on the Cape Elizabeth School Board and grew up in Portland and attended area public schools. She earned her BA and BS from American University in Washington, D.C. and her MBA in finance from the University of Chicago. And so I'd like to introduce you all to Senator Rebecca Millett. Hi, everyone. Oh, yeah, so I have been on the Education Committee my full time in the state legislature. For my very first two years, I was actually the Senate Chair, which was an interesting experience because I'd never been in the legislature before. And in the next four years, I was in the minority, but I was the minority lead on the committee and now I'm back to being Senate Chair. So there's a certain amount of... What am I trying to say? It's a benesity to that. We spend a lot of time in the Education Committee talking about why aren't all of our kids able to be successful. And it's been very interesting to see the progress of the discussion from my first year to where we are now. And last session in particular, countless bills came before us trying to get at early childhood experiences and social-emotional learning. There's a much greater understanding that what schools are experiencing is actually a continuation from the child's earliest life experiences. So this bill is a recognition that every child's experience is unique. Every opportunity, every barrier is pretty much unique to each child. And there is no one magic approach in helping that child thrive. There's a bunch of these in the back which explain kind of the overarching approach that this bill has. And it's basically for... There we go. Four different areas. Families. If a child's family life is unstable and healthy, it's no surprise then really that they're going to come to school with some serious setbacks. And we're recognizing that childcare providers, early education providers are a really great way to meet them where they are and try to get in early and quickly to improve their situation. This is all modeled against the Educare model. How many people know about Educare? So a good amount. Educare is a model that's been implemented across the country and very much reflects this approach. It's very expensive. And there's one Educare... actual Educare facility in the state of Maine in Waterville. And while it has this amazingly beautiful, fantastic setup for childcare for children, it's also a training facility as well. And they bring in lots of providers and agencies to come in and see what they're doing in hopes of spreading some of these best practices. But we're in recognition that we don't have the money to build an Educare in every community across the state of Maine. So a number of... I'm losing track of time, maybe four years ago, with the help of Mieleg, which is the Maine Early Learning Investment Group, which is a group of businesses, partnered with Educare Maine to try kind of a hub-and-spoke system, which is to say, you're not going to build an Educare in Skowhegan, but we are going to provide technical assistance to Skowhegan in hopes that we can help better support the childcare providers and agencies in that community. And it's worked really well. So this bill is to try to take that model and now create 10... 10... pilot programs around the state. So we've had one, it worked really well, and now we want to scale it up to 10. So you're working... So these facilities work with the families. If there is an unemployment issue, if there's a transportation issue, if there's a mental health issue, they have the ability to put those families in contact with whatever necessary resources that they may need. It's working with the early educators and saying, we recognize that your job is really tough. We have been hearing a lot about expulsions of young children from childcare centers because they are coming in with some serious behavioral challenges. And our childcare providers are not necessarily trained in how to deal with those kind of presentations of behavioral issues. So this model would provide that assistance as well to the early educators. And then of course, obviously, the children in this environment really thrive because their parents are hopefully healthier and sometimes the parents come into these with job issues and the centers can help them with that as well. We had a young, gosh, it's a sign of my age now. I can't believe I'm saying that. A woman who was in her, probably in her 30s, who did not have a job and was struggling to make ends meet. So poverty is one of the leading aces. I think we all know that. And so they worked with her to get training to become an early childcare provider herself. Which is really fantastic. And you could just see how proud she was of the journey that she had taken. And you know for sure that that is going to then reflect back into her family life in their house. So that's what the bill is. And our hope is, is that we are going to find the money in this round of budgetary discussions. It helps when the Senate president is the lead co-sponsor and have the opportunity to see the education model in person and interact with the children and the providers. And he's drinking the same Kool-Aid that I drank about six years ago. Everything falls from this. All of our workforce development issues. Our opioid epidemic issues. You name it. It comes from how these kids experience life in those first incredibly important developmental years. And the good news is after at least four years of the U.S. military retired military coming in our law enforcement officers coming in our business leaders coming in and talking to the legislature over and over again about why this is not a partisan issue. This is a main issue. It's not a partisan issue anymore. We now have a children's caucus that I co-founded with then Republican Representative Matt Pouliott. Now my co-chair is Solin Millett. He is a longstanding Republican leader within the State House. So that's really great news. But the real this costs money. Everything costs money. And so it's about making this a priority above all the other really important priorities. But in terms of the return on investment this is one of our favorite ways of getting our more conservative colleagues. It's one of the best that you can have. I think it's like between 6% and 12% or something like that So I think I'm going to wrap up there and I'm happy to answer any questions that folks may have about this project. There will be a public hearing in February. It hasn't been quite set yet but I really hope that folks will consider supporting this bill. Lending your voice to it the more the better. While indeed it's great to have the President of the Senate and the Federal Legislature and we have a Governor who has lots of competing interests in well so the more unified we are with our voices then we can bring everybody to that same place of support the better chances we have getting this passed. Any questions? We have a few minutes for questions. No? So part of the Living United Child Care Advertising Committee so we're very excited to hear about this bill. I'm also in the last month I've been in an event where I heard that community colleges talk about lack of support and additional funding for community college education. I've been at community meetings for the part of public schools talking about drastic changes that don't even come close to covering the budget. I'm curious and this is an uneducated question are there other bills that are also education focused as a legislature considering that this is competing with or collectively how has education as a whole been viewed in the last week? Yeah we've spent a lot of money on education in the state of Maine. It's a huge chunk of our budget. Statutorily the state of Maine is required to fund 55% of the total cost of public education and we have not met that goal since that referendum was passed for its second or third time I can't remember. But we are getting closer and closer so for 1% increase it's like a 40 or 50 million dollar investment. But when you do that then more money flows into the overall education system we have a very complicated methodology so Portland often does not get as much as others because of property rates and how it can it can raise more funds with its mill rate than a place like Rumford. So in terms of it, it's still relatively speaking it gets a lot of money maybe you know 8 million 10 million 12 million whatever but as a percentage of the overall budget it's very small whereas Rumford probably gets less than what Portland does but it's a bigger chunk of its budget. Everybody hates the funding formula and so for me that's a sign that it's working because it's it's designed to send money to where the economy is not as strong and they can't raise their own funds because we rely very heavily on property tax. But there's that constant conversation about funding the state funding total public education. And we're making headway. There's funding requirements for our career and education centers. That's in the mix. There's funding requests for supporting social emotional learning coaches. There's funding requests for increasing the rate of reimbursement for our early childcare providers. The list goes on and on. The community colleges system, the university main system they didn't get everything they wanted but they got an increase and are any they're all worthy. But you know we had three rounds of tax cuts in a row between the legislatures and we basically eliminated around 240 million dollars of state revenue in a biennium. 240 million dollars. It has a real impact on what our capacity is. And that's that's one of the elephants in the room. It's when we it's really great to have goals. It's really great to bring everybody together and agree that this is important. But at some point we have to say we can't fund all this. So who are we going to say no to? Or are we going to start talking about tax reform? I hope that answered your question. Thanks. In line with the other question to add on, what are the three main priorities for the children's caucus? I understand that first for me that was one of them, but the other priorities? Well actually we have not this session we have not gotten to the point of deciding what our priorities are. We did that last session and I apologize. My brain is mushed today. I cannot remember what the actually the social emotional coaches got funded last year. And that was one of our priorities. But yeah, we are actually in the process. We have a couple more informational presentations from the administration and some outside groups and then we're going to start doing the heavy lifting of deciding what our priorities are. Does that mean that they're going to get funded? But it helps when you have the Republican lead for the appropriations and financials affair committee as your co-chair. So as you saw there is a bill that's picking up quite a bit of momentum in supporting expansion of early care and education as well as supporting workforce development. All the things that we know are going to positively impact the efforts that we're making to overcome quite a few of these challenges. So one of the things that we Senator Millet mentioned about having all of our voices together and I want to see a show of hands who here has ever written a letter to your legislator or made a phone call. Okay. So a good number of folks here. So one of the things that we are doing is making it very easy for folks to get up to speed on some of the bills that are happening that Thrive 2027 is supporting but also make it easy for folks to actually advocate. And so for the last time if you can pull out your cell phone and if you can text the word ME child, or main child, ME second word child to the number 52886 you should receive a prompt. This will allow you to write a personalized letter with some talking points and prompts to your specific legislator. See some folks already doing it, that's awesome. And what we've seen is that they actually get these emails and they actually read them and most likely you will get a response. Yes, awesome. So yes, so advocating as you can see can be very easy and straightforward.


Okay, so now we've done a lot with roots and fifths and playing through these chord changes and really being solid on that root, doing a little bit of walking. The next idea that I want to relate to you is how these chords fit together. And it's really important as we talk about roots and fifths. In really all music, there are three primary chords that we're going to be using and they're based on steps of a scale in a key. Typically, the strongest chords in any key are the one chord, which is based on the root note or the key note. So we've been playing in B-flat. The one chord is the B-flat chord, the chord that starts the tune and ends the tune. So we've been starting on B-flats all along. The second strongest chord in any song, and this goes for rock music, jazz music, any music is what we call the five chord. And it's based on the fifth note of the scale, the fifth that we've been playing. So in B-flat, the B-flat is the one chord and the F chord is the five chord. And you'll notice that that relationship on the bass is a very, very strong one. Now the other primary chord is the four chord and that in the song we've been playing is the E-flat chord. These chords, one chord, in our case the B-flat chord, the four chord, in our case the E-flat chord and the five chord, in this case the F chord, have this strong, strong relationship. And they have this strong sort of geographic relationship on the bass. They fit together really nicely. And that happens for every single key. The one chord, the four chord, and the five chord all fall together very nicely. And incidentally they can be used to harmonize literally any tune. That's why they're so strong in jazz and in pop and in rock music and frankly in classical music as well. So they're all over the place. So it's really important to me that as a bass player you understand the key note is where that root is of the first chord essentially that the four chord is straight across one fret or excuse me one string up on the bass and that the five chord corresponds to the five of the one chord or here. Very, very important this relationship. One chord, four chord, five chord. These will fall together in literally every single jazz tune that you do. The ones in the fives are the strongest relationship. The five always pulls us back to one. And the four is very important as well. So no one chord, four chord, five chord. And we could literally play this blues tune in any key with the knowledge that the one chord is four measures long to start the song. The four chord, the E-flat is two measures, the it goes back to the one chord for two measures, the five chord for two measures, one for one measure, five for one measure. Let's play blues by five one more time and this time instead of calling out the chord names let's use the Roman numeral one, four, or five. And you say them along with me. I think that'll be really important. Here we go. Blues by five. I'll play half notes in B-flat. Playing the one chord to start, one chord, four chord, one chord, five chord, one, five, back to one. Now we could do that same thing in absolutely any key. I think it would be great for us to do it in a different key right now. Let's use the key of G. Now let's play that pattern all in the key of G thinking one chord, four chord, and five chord. You'll see what I'm talking about. Same tune, key of G. Find my G note, roots and fifths. One chord, four chord, one chord, five chord, one chord, five, back to one. One chord, five chord. I hope that makes sense. Work on that and really get used to that relationship between ones, fours, and fives. We'll come into play all through the jazz literature you're going to learn. Good luck.


Features of teaching ear fell in a kindergarten. Deciding to be a teacher in a kindergarten can be intimidating for some inexperienced teachers in the beginning. In my case, I was quite unsure of teaching very young kids and would rather teach adults. However, I ended up in China and started to teach English in a kindergarten and it resulted to be easier than expected. Good rap war. I would say that the key point in order to be a good kindergarten teacher is establishing a good rap war with the kids since the beginning. Kids at this age or very young and some of them won't like the teacher in the beginning. Some warmers, songs, and games with them will quickly solve the problem. In a few days, all the kids will like the teacher very much and this is very important to make them improve their English. If the kids don't like the teacher, they won't learn. Another important step to do in the beginning is to remember the kid's name. Being an ear fell teacher in a kindergarten often means teaching more than a hundred kids and remembering all their names in a short period of time is not always easy, adding the fact that some of them look very alike for a foreign teacher. Nevertheless, it is fundamental to remember them all. Indeed, a common mistake made by EFL teachers is to constantly ask questions to the kids they remember the name of and neglect the others. Interesting materials. After the rap war is established, lots of teaching materials have to be created and included in the lesson. Kids at this age will get bored very quickly, and if the teacher is willing to target all the class, I.t not only the smart kids that are very receptive and always participate, the teacher should try his best to make each class different. Meanwhile, it is true that kids at this age learn very quickly but will also forget things very fast. So constant revision is necessary. Coral drills is an efficient way to teach and review as well as managing a large class of young learners. This method gives them all the opportunity to talk. Proper teaching aids. It is also important to mention that using flashcards is a very good way to teach since kids at this age or too young to use books apart from the senior level class, five, six years old. On the other hand, the constant use of PPT is not a good way because it is not good for the eyes of the kids. The ultimate solution, especially for the younger kids, three-four years old, is to have recourse to flashcards. Lots of games can be created from them. The teacher can ask the kids to say the word on the flashcard, and if the kid answers correctly, will get the flashcard as a reward. Kids enjoy it very much. The teacher can then ask where is that word then the kid holding the flashcard will reply. Having enough flashcards for all the kids is a good way to give them all the opportunity to talk. Moreover, flashcards can allow kids to play together. For example, the teacher can create a fishing game and let the kids try to catch the correct card. At this age, kids need to learn mostly by playing and having fun. Are you ready to teach English in a kindergarten abroad? Enjoying the English class or having fun while learning is really what parents here in China are expected from us, and I guess it's, in fact, the same in every country. So as long the kid is happy and learning at the same time, the EFL teacher will be very appreciated by the school and the parents, and the teaching results will be absolutely rewarding. Speak with an ITTT advisor today to put together your personal plan for teaching English abroad. Send us an email or call us toll free at 1-800-490-0531 to speak with an ITTT advisor today.


Everyone, Basel Chapman here. This is the Tiger Financial News Network, 4 o'clock closing price on this Monday, the 11th of April. We're looking at the Dowdown 412 for $34,309. It made that peak, Dean, the fourth highest peak in the Chapman way methodology at $35,372. Pullback hasn't taken our Thursdays low yet, but look at the S&P. It certainly did, S&P is right on the 200-period exponential moving average, making this a really important moment. The technicals are starting to deteriorate. Also made that peak, Dean. We're looking at any move below $43,92. Let's give it a give back even more. We're looking at the QQQ, 123. We're looking at the Q's down 8.24, down 2.36%. That's the biggest percentage move at 340.91. It is looking very, very poor in both the daily and the weekly chart. So far, the monthly chart is holding okay. We're looking at the IWM, the Russell 2000, also acting poorly down $1.36 and $1.96 got repelled at the 200-period moving average at that fourth highest peak, D. We're looking at gold to this particular point. Gold is holding pretty nicely. It's up 12 at 1,957. It seems to, if this MACD can cross positive, you'll see gold quickly move into the 1,986, 1,992 area. If it does that, that's a very good move. And if you're looking at the crude oil, crude oil in fact is testing the left side low of about the 14th or so of March. It is at 1,987 on the continuous contract, down 339. This is really a critical moment both in the daily and the weekly chart. And that monthly chart has made a leg E. We're going to see if crude oil is available so that it drops the price because of competition. We're looking also at the TLT, and we discussed that in the show just a little earlier when I was the guest host of Tom's, Tom O'Rine Show. And we're looking at 1,2314 going out of the down channel. It has just three days to get back in to move above 1,2580, 1,2633. Somewhere in that area it needs to get there. Otherwise this is really poor because that TBT, the inverse, is breaking out in the weekly chart. I discussed that. And it's in leg C in the monthly chart. Yeals are going high. That's a way to shorten. We're going to see if there's a bit of a pullback. And the volatility index trading right now at 24, 34 is the high of the day. In the 24s, that's pretty high. If it touches 2580 tomorrow, the market continued down. There's going to be a ready couple of other things and we'll be back tomorrow on Tuesday. Stay tuned.


So this is our Serving for 125 event. It's part of the 125 years of women's celebration. The first two women enrolled in 1893, so we've been celebrating that milestone all year long and this is our ending celebration, which is a day of service. On behalf of the Anderson Society, we decided to donate the $6,000 that it would cost to feed 1,500 students in the Tuscos community who go hungry at night or on the weekends whenever they aren't in school. The best way to get involved is to go out into the Tuscaloosa community and just find areas to serve. The Center for Service and Leadership is really great here at the university with connecting students to different places in Tuscaloosa or even in the greater Alabama community, sometimes even nationally. We were only serving for 125 minutes today and we've been able to do a lot of good.


I'm at level five just to flex on him. Do we actually do that though? Yeah, I'ma do it to him. Let's flex. Buff Gojina, but don't worry about his animations.  How's it going everybody? Datoi here back with some more Dragon Ball Fighters ranked matches. This time playing a team comprised of characters that I really hope get buffed in the upcoming patch for the game. So that's right, we do know there is a patch incoming probably alongside the Master Roshi release sometime in September. So that is pretty much confirmed is what I was going to say. We don't know exactly what the patch is going to do whether or not it actually will even affect characters. What they said in the video is that they wanted to address assist specifically, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were going to touch up on characters. So if they do, I just wanted to have a record of saying I really hope these characters get touched. So that's Jiren. Gojina also were in the corner. Let me just spin kick my way down. Yep. Jiren, Gojina and Goku Black would all be my, can I, I wonder if I can get a Gojina assist to hit here? Nope. Well, we gave it a shot. All right, let me vanish. Let me vanish. Let me go to work. Oh, nope. You can back it up. For Jiren, I actually think Jiren is probably, yeah, I'm comfortable saying that. I think Jiren is by far the best character on this team. I actually think he's a pretty decent anchor. It's just the fact that they made him pretty decent and then dropped you I Goku, which is pretty much just better Jiren. That was so unfortunate. So yeah, I would like to see Jiren get touched up specifically his command grab or his projectile counter, if that could finally get like, if that could finally be a confirmed thing for him when he hits it, that would be not, why did I 2M? I went right underneath. It was like I was trying to a nice EX kicks. It was like I was trying to avoid him. All right, let me save. No, I can't believe we let that hit. The jump up dragon rush. I think that was the second time he attempted that too. So now he's like, damn, I am God. I am God. Like I knew that read with it. Oh no, not Gojira. I would actually say Gojira is probably the worst character. Goku Black might have it. I don't know. It's pretty hard to tell and Gojira is just, Gojira is definitely the most disappointing though. I feel like for a Gojira character, he should be crazy strong, but instead he's actually just kind of bad.  I probably could have killed there if I played that correctly. Instead I'll take that. Let me, oh never mind. I was going to go for the overhead, but I will have to settle for this super dash as well. Let me take a couple of kicks. Why do I keep doing that?  I keep trying to go for like a flex combo. Let me wake up. Oh, don't drag. Is he gonna? Yeah, there's the kicks again. Overhead. Let's go behind the bat. Stop. I did not do that one. Yeah. Okay. Deserve that. Really? A level one? Is that gonna? Okay. I was like, how's the scaling on that look? One button. DP, that was sick. Unfortunately, we can't get much else off the, are we gonna have to level three here? Yes, we are. I don't think a level one would have killed, which is unfortunate because I would have really preferred to have gone for a level one, but instead we'll take Vigino.  And you know what? I'm gonna make a read. I'm gonna say this man is going to jump. He also tried to make a read.  The UI versus Jiren matchup? Thank goodness we aren't on. Actually, that's a different Goku as well, isn't it? Nevermind. I was gonna say, I can't believe there's not a UI versus Jiren dramatic finish, but I guess a UI Goku technically didn't really win that matchup. Oh, I clicked the button. Kick Adam. That's fine. Oh, what are you doing? Trying to out Jiren Jiren, huh? Not gonna happen. Grab. Oh, it actually landed. Ooh, that was looking a little slow too. I thought that was gonna miss. All right, I'm gonna think he throws a Key Blast. No. I'll take it.  I dropped it. That's fine. Oh, oh, we went for the hard read and it just wasn't there for us. That's fine. I'm glad we attempted it though. We have five bars. We could technically land it raw. Oh, no. Are we dead for that? He can't finish it. He doesn't have the bar. He can't finish it. He doesn't have the bar. I can't believe we didn't get the block. Nice 2M. All right, game one. We couldn't bring it home. I definitely, I'm gonna chalk that up to pretty bad play on our part though. If we can make the correct adjustments, especially with finishing our Gojira combos, that was upsetting. I dropped way too many Gojira combos there. That was on me. Oh, he didn't, oh, he didn't attack? All right, I'll take that. Oh, oh, I was gonna say it was a bit laggy there. I think he was, whoa, my goodness, dude. That was, that movement was pretty sick. All right, dude, this is, why is this like so threatening? I'll take a dragon rush. Man, what UI versus Duran just kind of hits differently. We are just standing around, waiting to see what the other one did. Oh, I deserve that. I am playing a counter character. Level one though, so we kind of get off for free. Okay, DP that? Yes, it was your turn to click a button, but we have DP's on. I took a big risk. I took a big risk. I probably shouldn't have Gojira. Not to Vegeta. We can't lose out to the other fusion here. There's too much at stake. I'm DP'ing out of here, dude. You forced my hand. Jiren, get in here. Just the instant switch out found me. I'll take another dragon rush. I feel like we can keep going for that option. We have to kind of force him to want a block. Do we level three here with Gojira? Yeah, I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do it. Let's get the fusion matchup back out here. All right, does he spark? I'm gonna say yes. Regret. Dude, if it would have worked out, come on. If it would have worked, we would have been talking about, they would have been, I would have said common your favorite moment. People would have timestamped that. I would have been pretty high. We might have even had an intro. Oh, and now it's this. And now it's just this. Now, look at us. Look at it. We're in a completely different ball game. I'm just gonna swap. Wow, we let him slide. Let him slide by. Heavy actually connects though, so we'll take it. I am panicking right now. Super dash button. I can't believe I didn't get there at the time. I really tried to force that. I'll take it to him. Dude, dart cancel there. I like that. We have to level three for this. Yeah, that's fine. We'll take a level three and then that should kill him. We'll get base Goku back in here. Yeah, this is about sounding right. I think, as long as we don't, I mean, base Goku's a really good limit break character though. As long as we don't lose to limit break sparking Goku. Does he have spirit bomb charged up? Oh no. Oh no, we're playing sloppy already. We're playing sloppy already. Look at that. It's just melting away. Health bar half off. I'm definitely sparking. I don't want to spark first though. I feel like he needs to spark first. I'll take another dragon rush. Dude, if we weren't getting as many dragon rushes, this would be even worse for us. Okay, there it is. We can spark now. We can spark. I'm going to let him kill his own time though. All right, now we're sparking. Yep. All right, that's good. Nice. Very nice. Okay. Now I'm feeling like we're back in control. I was a little worried there for a second. We'll take that. Excellent movement. But you couldn't see the EX. Zamasu, get this man. Oh, I thought this would do so much more damage. I was getting ready to be like, yes. Didn't do as much as I wanted. You went up. Oh, there it is. We're going to keep like, oh. Yeah, but you see, I could use a little buff on that to be honest. Oh, excellent elbow. Oh no, that's going to be Jiren. Yep, that's Jiren gone. I don't, I think he can finish it with just the Kaio Ken portion of this. I don't think he needs a finisher. He probably does not need that, but maybe not. Oh yeah, he didn't. Okay. I was, I was, I was kind of close. I was like, oh no, unfortunate. Goku Black, you got to do it though. I know what I said about you earlier, but I didn't mean it though. It was for the intro. Is this how? Oh no, did we just lose to a dragon rush? Somehow drop this dude. Somehow drop it. I'm not giving up hope just yet. Is this not going to kill? Even with the extra bar? We're still in the game. Oh no, our cancel on that. He didn't go for the auto. Oh no. Oh no. Just a little bit of panic in my voice. Nothing too, nothing too severe. Give me that. I didn't know what had happened. I need to recover. I need to recover from that. I need to recover from that.  Oh no. Okay, hold on. I need to snap this game. I just need a game to get the old confidence back, dude. That was, ooh, ooh, that one was bad. I was like, I was getting ready to, I think the reason that hurt is because I was so getting ready to say, wow, I can't believe we won. Damn. It really be like that sometimes.  Dude, imagine if that was a double KO. Imagine if that was a double KO, dude. I think I actually would have left it. Like, I think I would have left the video and I just would not have returned. I'm at level five just to flex on him. Do we actually do that though? Yeah, I'm gonna do it to him. Let's flex. Yeah. Both go Gina, but don't worry about his animations. You guys killed it with that.  Oh, dude. This is the game I needed, by the way. Punch him in the face. I can't believe that didn't get reflected, but whatever, I will definitely take that. All right, onto base Goku now. He does still have sparking left, but after that, oh man, oh, that was bad on me. I was definitely starting to feel myself a little too much after this round. But good, that's good. We did ask specifically for a round like this, where I could just kind of like, click buttons with a smile on my face, dude. No, not that, oh, it kind of worked out. I definitely didn't mean to do that though. Damage. Look at the damage. I do appreciate the counter-buffs though. I will admit that the counter-buffs make it, the counter-buffs make it hurt so much less. A lot of blue health for it though. Oh man. Oh man. I should not have gone for the medium counter. Oh no, switch. Oh, he still got us on the switch. I guess it didn't end up too bad, but nice. All right, he's out. No, nice job. That's only a level one though, isn't it? Jiren, we're going all the way down Thunder- Oh, that would have been so... Thunder-dome, I'm coming back for you. I got you for three minutes. Oh, the elbow, all right, this game is... Oh, not like that, not like that actually. I'm sorry, that was not an acceptable way. I feel like we might have just conned that man, but I will definitely take that. Go out into a level one with Goku Black. Wow, that was a weird animation transfer. We're going to take a game though, two, one. I need to calm down, I need to calm down. Let me get some time. All right, we're back, we're ready to go. Let me back in there, dude. Let me back in there. Let me back in. Okay, let's see if we can make a comeback. I would love to get, I would love to come back. All right, so he does have that B assist. That's probably why he thought he had a level three. Can I switch out here? No, I can't. You back off though. I love it just that one jab hits and you don't get anything else off of it. Okay, I'm not coming with a jump in medium though. And a little bit of a reset. Okay, okay. Who do I want out Jiren probably, right? Let Jiren take the point. Yeah, all right. Another good start for us. I appreciate the good starts. Is he going to make a read? Wow. He actually hit that because I specifically went for that move.  I was like, I could probably catch that spirit sword if I tried. Nice dragon, that was smart. I didn't expect that. Good stuff. We can't afford to lose Jiren though because that would mean our lead is for nothing. Yeah, he tried it. That's in the, that's in the Vegeta. They passed that out to the Vegeta handbook. If you go to any Vegeta meeting, you'll see that in the guidebook. Always jump up after the first one hits. I felt good. I'll take a medium sliding. Hey, you know what? I'll take a whole level three. I don't want your average sliding. I need this knockdown. Now, unfortunately our mix up isn't that great. So we're just going to have to, I'm in the dragon rush. Yes. I got to hit you with a little bit of something else. Oh, I tried dragon rushing again.  Oh, the slicer actually saved us. Nice. All right. Now we just have this base Goku to deal with. What a. Wow, he's moving. He is definitely moving right now. He is angry. Oh, let's escape. And I go right and he's moving, dude. He's definitely feeling himself for some reason. The confidence when base Goku came out, the aura is completely different. Four bars to we are definitely dead times 20. Yikes, times 20 limit break. And we still got to get rid of that spark. I think we have to switch out in the Jira and try to go head up with him on a level three. Go Jira.   We'll have to see. No, I am allowing it. And he X elbow is sick. Are we? Yeah, we're dead for that. Aren't we? No, he's not going to vanish. I got hit by another ex elbow. That move is killing me right now. Hold on.  We wanted this head up match up to him. Oh, no. Oh, no, he's going to force me to spark first. Damn, not a great look. Not a great look, but it's fine. No, I've had enough. I'm just going to I don't know if that was safe or not. Probably not. I just really wanted that. I don't know.   I was I wasn't blocking three bars. We're dead unless he drops it. No, he's not going to drop it. I can't believe we lost like that. Hold on. Hold on. Maybe he'll drop it. No, my back, my back. Oh, just toss me gently. That wasn't that gentle. Oh, I can't believe we lost like that. That was that was my bad. I wasn't thinking I was not thinking at all. I gave. Well, good game to my opponents. That was a great set. Hopefully you all enjoyed it and let me know down below in the comment section what characters you would like to see get buffed or just any changes you would like to see in the patch in general. Other than that, I've been Dr. Do it. Thank you so much for watching this video and I will see you in the next one.


Everybody forced here rip in 2022 origins football hobby eight box half case number 33 random teams Check the results here any time at any time the late sports cards calm And there's a Lincoln chat. Good luck everybody. Oh, there's gonna be a short break guys gonna skip three kept because we are behind Way to my heart is sweet That's not me I love languages English English is not a nice language Rams can makers of two ninety nine To seventy five Matt Stafford Rams Rookie Jersey Johan Dotson to one ninety nine commanders. Oh Boy Zachariah, I just read Zachariah's.  That was here. They wanted all to that was it that was his MVP season It's one ninety nine T. Higgins Bengals and McLauren at two ninety nine commanders No giddy ups Rookie Jersey Commander Sam Howell the one ninety nine. All right. Give me okay. Okay the comments were give me backhanded compliments Do that give me backhanded compliments instead. I love that. That's a lot more fun Niners Danny Gray rookie auto Like oh, yeah, you're a little you're a top five breaker late and say something like that's good That's a good one to Danny Gray there for the Niners Got a rookie Jersey auto Titans Hassan Haskins That vanishing beard that was that was pretty weird right good old camera lighting trick You are not at all that bad opening card packs That was just straight up that's not even a backhand. It's not even common Top ten for sure Sam Howell Colts Jonathan Taylor to one ninety nine Two ninety nine Browns Nick Chubb Dude Chris you can't keep bringing up the elite I pull you good cards man The four one ninety nine rookie Jersey Chris Alave Saints That's funny. Great penny-sleever. Hey, that's that's actually decent column. Hey It's not as easy as it looks to do it first as like smooth videos like we would be out. Yeah Anyone that sleeves a lot of cards knows it's not super easy. Tyrion Davis price Niners Sam's pretty good at it too. Sam's trash. Oh, yeah Damian Pierce rookie Jumbo Jersey auto redemption for the Texans That was one of the things Richard had me work on when I first started breaking is like sleeving cards like while breaking Yeah Yeah, I think it's like an arm position Different That I just had never been around cards until I started working at us right like at all Marquis Brown is a Spiller no Devonte Smith the two ninety nine Eagles No, I love me. I'm saying it's one ninety nine Broncos Russell Wilson. They just go at it.   Yeah trash There's a nice one a rushing stars or Raiders rookie autos is a mirror white nine of 25 depending on nailed it Don't And redemption Sam howl orange RPA to 75 What do you say Go dolphins Chargers Yeah, Sunday night, let's go Often's got to keep winning man. Oh man. It's a big one. I know you are brother Cowboys CD to 299 all jokes and time him out. You have the power 75 turbisky twitching rookie Jersey Titans trail on Berks to 199 Absolutely, bro. It's all jokes John Mets you the third rookie auto for the Texans to 99 All right, I was out here now You know, I Sam's hot takes away get some trouble though. Yeah He gets so riled up about certain players to 99 RPA jet sauce When you see his nice white Connecticut skins start turning bright red You got That's amazing. Oh my god, that's too good. Oh, man, Shaq Help you Shaq Brady to 99 bucks Panthers McCaffrey to 299 You Isn't average defender he was adequate he made big plays is what I was saying he made Jelani Woods rookie auto colts to 99 Tremac pride Cardinals rookie jumbo patch for a 15. Oh, wow. That's a pretty cool book right there six of 49 Origins rookie stars dual patch rookie auto book with some purple ink Jagstruv on Walker lions Aiden Hutchinson Really cool number one number two pick book right there I believe that is a random between the Jaguars and the Lions very nice Hunter L with the Lions and Jacob M with the Jaguars. Good luck on that book. I'm gonna get a pick of that one too at the end. Yeah That is nice again six of 49 Very nice. Love the purple on that too and Steelers RPA orange with a number patch 40 to 75 Calvin Austin the third And that's the eight from the rookie Premier Jersey card there The top-loader cam Yeah, dude, he sits over here and just watches NFL games and calls teams trash. I think the whole time That's my forte Yeah, if you want to see someone say go dolphins 55 times a night, we'll get a cam for you dolphins We got tana held to 199 Titans. Let's go Chargers Herbert gonna get a win on Sunday. I'm sure the chargers are to 299 what Rookie patch Titans Malik Willis the 99 Alternate camera angles I'll just switch it at random. Yeah, Kenneth Walker the third rookie auto Seahawks Mini camera for a stash And it would be like when Farva's introduced and and super troopers and it's just his like come in one two come in one Do you need my assistance that would be like the view? RPA jets breeze halter 99 Oh boy, I do kind of have a four of a super trooper stash Dude, if they make a super troopers three, I'm there leader of cola leader Can I get a double bacon cheeseburger for a cop? Love that That's such a classic stands a test of time variation Corral Panthers a Lamar Jackson of 50 Ravens Tate Adams to 199 for the Raiders That was that Zach that was funny. He had no clue Santa's who ace Ventura is I was doing oh my god Rookie patch Jets Garrett Wilson a 199 laces out. Oh my oh Dude, I think I remember you telling me that it's kind of setting in now Rookie auto Seahawks Kenneth Walker the third. He had no clue, dude enhance and Aiden Hutchinson RPA Lions 91 of 99 There you go Lions a good break there guys some numbered RPA's some nice Different variations of on-card autos and we have this book to random as well Santa's those ace Ventura is My god make him watch on the way to Disney and make him watch it. Yes, Satan. Yeah Oh, I thought you were some oh mr. Shiggy dance. I thought you were somebody else. Oh Man, I love it. That was funny. I was like what the heck how do you not know ace? I don't think rich would have hired him if you knew that. There's no way All right, very nice book here dual patch dual auto the top two picks Travon Walker Jags Aiden Hutton's and Lions to 49 On my application It said, you know who Ray Finkel is All right, good luck every good luck out to the Jags and Lions here You can pry it though, okay four and two six times top team gets it one two Three four five and six go into the Detroit Lions and that's gonna do it for the break Thank you very much everybody another half case coming up next


Okay, very good morning to everyone. It's Tuesday the 3rd of December and I'm gonna go straight into this graphic I've got here, which is a bit of a reflection of the size of the sell-off that we had yesterday Pretty much the S&P putting in its biggest sell-off that we've had in about two months the Dow I think it was down closed about 268 points on Wall Street the combination really of The tariff man back in business of course before he heads and meets other senior heads of state in the NATO leader summit happening in the UK Coming up this week I've got a full agenda for Trump that we can look at hour by hour So we can track his movements for any potential tweets that he might make on these subjects and then we've had the economic data that's been coming up and Despite some of the recent kind of positive US economic data points. We've had we've had some Disappointments and particularly yesterday almost sparking further momentum behind the sell-off on Wall Street was that latest ISM manufacturing number Kind of every component of it the US manufacturing sector was he contracting slightly faster the rate in November The PMI survey also showing businesses scaling back production new orders of faltering the employee constituent was down against the prior month And all of this of as well coming ahead of more key North American data this week You've got the non manufacturing PMI ADP and of course non-farm payrolls all coming up On Fridays, so they were kind of the two main real catalyst to yesterday's price activity So the dollar got hit both major pairs largely supported and if we're looking at the the kind of charts this morning Things are seeing a little bit of a recovery of sorts I guess given the depth of the move that we saw yesterday. This is usually quite common kind of practice People just closing out those speculative shorts having hit that move yesterday and just looking at two major stock indices here This is the S&P 500 One of the questions I was asking Sam first thing this morning was if you were gonna if you if I had to force you to buy The dip where would you buy the dip and I'm sure he can talk about this a little bit more Because for me yesterday's movement had enough reasons from the tariffs and the data But not forgetting as well that we were at record all-time highs And so I do think that a little bit of a pullback here is kind of warranted at these levels The question is then well at what point then do we We kind of look to get in For the inevitable center clause rally if that does indeed materialize obviously a lot of risks looming mid month given the Tariffs still potentially coming on China. We've got the Federal Reserve meeting. You've got the UK general election It's still plenty going on But you can see here from yesterday's response to the key kind of technical level you had that trend line Ascending trend line from really the 13th the retest on around the 20th and that coinciding with some of the upside resistance that we had around the middle of November Just all coinciding around that same point before then seeing a bit of a lift in the most recent price activity This morning to get things underway for looking at the DAX pretty similar as well You know the DAX loves it when it breaks a key technical level You know the way I kind of look at the DAX and the way of which it moves It's all often you need the fundamental catalyst, but then the technical breaches of key Longer time frame levels tends to see some real Sharp price movement and yesterday certainly we got beyond that point. You can see we broke that mid-November Area we then pushed down so you can see here that level that extension on the wick there I know it's quite small for you to see that we make it a bit bigger So there the break that you get you get the break the pull back to the exact level of where the initial Area that people were looking at then you get the push down on the downside and as we recover We're recovering back Playing on the same kind of technical points So the market responding initially when the overnight Asia Pacific late in that session to where we were on the 20th Then we break higher. Where do we go back to that level again of where we were? Consolidating previously here and here so again quite you know when you're trading that type of instrument, which is very Volatile, I think you've got to be picking out these levels well in advance of time and I did if you didn't catch it Yesterday I did share Some commentary I was doing immediately post the ISM on our YouTube channel So if you go on the breaking news and a category you can catch that but you can see how When I'm trying to observe the markets in flux when things are moving quite rapidly for me It's about monitoring of key levels across asset class that's how I generally can determine then about the the depth of a move how How far it can go so in addition to just seeing how the candles are forming the kind of movement on the ladder Also looking at the cross asset class correlations to see if there any meaningful Coordinated breaks of key levels is what I'm generally basing that along the decision and if you're trying to kind of maximize then Potential profit targets for example to maximize the trade to get out When the market is moving quite quite rapid as it was yesterday One thing that's going back on the macro from This was another graphic that I'm sure In summary is very familiar and this is looking at the blue line as the S&P 500 index The white line as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index That's kind of a whole continent if you like putting all together those agent indices so the US has out performed The point here is not that the point is the red lines here So every time you know if you were to remove the right-hand side of the chart This is record all-time highs. We hit the record all-time high Trump says he will raise tariffs on 200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% that was in Kind of may time of this year and then equities fall We then get to equities all-time highs Trump says will add 10% tariffs to 300 billion of Chinese goods Equities fall we get to all-time highs Trump comes out as I'm about to discuss and now he's not talking about Potentiality of delaying or Disrupting at least the phase one deal with China But now he's firing bullets across the entire globe at everyone from France to Australia to Brazil Argentina With this whole kind of US protectionist policy and and therefore we've had a little bit of a correction So, you know the one thing that is still very telling here If you're kind of moving yourself out of the intraday market and looking at this more medium-term perspective Is that every time we get near that all-time high we go back into that continuum that loop of The trade war cycle Trump has that Flexibility then almost it feels to kind of get a little bit more aggressive on the rhetoric and inevitably then markets pull back Only for then a deal to be made or hints towards it The Fed might respond if there's continuous pressure in the market, and then we go back up again One would imagine this can't Be sustained forever, but at the moment this is a very distinct pattern And one that I think we can continue to expect to see in time the other thing that that I've Was thinking this morning when I was coming into work is that there seems to me to be a very distinct pattern Not only about where the stock market is at this point in time and how that can translate to Trump's Activity or at least his strategy is the other thing we do have this coming up Donald Trump arrived in Britain fairly fairly quiet arrival actually yesterday I have tweeted on my account the full agenda of where he's gonna be today and On the 4th of December this of course is for that NATO leader summit that's happening in Hertfordshire But the important point I want to make here is that every time So if we're to look at the fourth when we're right in the middle of the NATO meeting some of the people attending this are Justin Tredo the Canadian PM Angler Merkel the German Chancellor will be there Of course Boris Johnson is hosting the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti the Italian PM is gonna be there Mark Rutte the Dutch PM is there nearly always That I've seen the head of a g7 g20 NATO whatever it might be if there's heads of state present particularly Trump's trance least favorite character Emmanuel Macron. He always Threatens new tariffs or he Threatens basically this kind of notion that the world is taking advantage of America and so again These types of things are very subtle But something to be aware of because then you can start to almost Anticipate around the timing of which the Trump tone or tactic might change gear or direction What I'm saying then is that every time before meeting heads of state He typically starts to talk a quite a Negative tone So something to just bear in mind, but that in combination with the stock market I think Given that we were at all-time record highs was almost like the perfect storm for what happened and created a lot of the market Movement yesterday I feel from a fundamental perspective The other point here though that makes it a little more Interesting and perhaps a little bit more that we could see some more downside to come is the fact that China have been quite vocal about potentially Retaliation now Chinese state media has said the government would soon publish a list of unreliable Entities that could lead to sanctions against US companies Now a lot of this is coming in retaliation to the human rights Issues that the US have been saying about what's been going on in Hong Kong with the pro-democracy Protests and also in an area in the western part of China in Xinjiang which is where they've been these reported voluntary reeducational camps Which I'll let you make your own judgment on what you really think about that in reality But all of this of course has come at a very Interesting time and one of which is adding a lot of pressure about the delivery of Something's got to give before the middle of the month because the clock is ticking December 15th Trump has threatened to impose 15 percent tariffs on a hundred and sixty billion Further more of Chinese imports now at the moment I think things get a little bit more worse on this front before then the inevitable happens And I do think that a phase one deal will not be completely Eliminated I do think though we're gonna have to be looking until the new year until it gets done But between now and then obviously there's a lot of risk on the table renewed that is The other thing as well that the Global Times editor Which you'll know quite vocal on Twitter in the Western world tends to be the mouthpiece of the government has been talking about US officials may also face visa curbs as well So it's all suddenly kind of escalated quite quickly Particularly on the back of that again legislation that was passed by the president last week Supporting the situation that's happening with the protesters in Hong Kong This just to make matters worse the as I said Trump going into meeting all of these officials I mean just imagine going into a meeting room where you've basically Just said you're gonna massively Tariff Individual countries and then you go into a room to meet all of the prime ministers and heads of states of these countries I mean You've got to hand it to him. He's got he's got some pair of Well some pair of stuffing balls, let's say keeping it seasonal, but Yeah, this is the main thing that's happened overnight in the headline that Bloomberg are running with is that the US was proposing duties on 2.4 billion dollars of French goods over tech tax now Hitting France where it hurts cheese and wine and handbags I'm sure Bloomberg are having a little little bit of a dig and a laugh at that this morning But you know these are the main exporting goods out of that country and so the US proposing this In retaliation to digital revenues that France has been proposing to hit and specifically target large American Corporations so as you can imagine those like Google Apple Facebook Amazon Which they feel are massively underpaying and getting around the loopholes of the amount of tax that they should be paying And of course America taking this as why are you unfairly picking on us in the situation? The US TR are not only looking at France though They've got their eyes on Austria Italy and Turkey. So now It's spread almost and although that was always the case Again the more the market starts to believe that this is beyond the shores of just China the more of a global risk that it becomes So yeah in very interesting developments so overnight, okay? Let's move off Trump and let's go somewhere else. One is just wanted to quickly talk about OPEC. So For those on the distribution list. I did email this out to you this morning. So do you have a read? Basically, it's an analysis piece a preview ahead of the OPEC meeting that's happening later on second half of this week I did also Re-share on my Twitter account if you need to see the article that way now a couple of points I've taken out of this article and I just wanted to get you up to speed of a thing things to think about Because as I said yesterday's briefing the OPEC meeting rarely does it get to the point of the confirmation from the press conference? Officially we're going to get a lot of a lot of headline noise coming up over the next day or two So I wanted to get you guys kind of set up for what to expect now many analysts say the group Should announce deeper cuts for longer in order to avoid a price slump So far however OPEC delegates have largely indicated no appetite for bolder action So on the balance Expectations are that they're not going to deepen the existing OPEC 1.2 million pounds per day cut They're just going to roll this over given its exploration at the end of Q1 of 2020 now A lot of this has been reignited by the fact that the Iraqi all-minister Said on Sunday that the proposal should be to increase the cut depth by an extra 400,000 to 1.6 million now for the most part OPEC plus Appears headed towards a less ambitious but more straightforward extension of a deal on the same quotas The exact length though is unknown Some according to those familiar with the discussions have said that we're looking at basically three Six or nine month extensions, which could be Under discussion obviously the longer the extension probably the more bullish it could be for prices So scaling out from three six to nine months now I thought this was a really interesting point and something which I do think could throw a little bit of a spanner in the works for a Positive price surprise and this is that shares in the state-owned Saudi Aramco a set to begin trading next week and obviously this has been one of the most eagerly anticipated and Biggest initial public offerings. We've ever seen now What do you think Saudi Arabia will want for the price of oil and the first few days of which Saudi Aramco starts trading? For me, I think that definitely spells a little bit fishy that you know Would they really even though they've been the ones who've been very reluctant to deepen the cuts because they know they typically end up Shouldering most of the burden, but they definitely are going to want oil prices Stabilizing or moving higher when that those shares in Aramco start trading next week. So just think yeah a little bit Suspect the timing will Saudi Arabia feel this kind of political pressure to perform with Aramco? And so therefore well, look, let's just let's just commit to something pretty decent like a nine month rollover Or let's go for a 200k Extension for a little bit more plus an extension on the time frame something like that just to propel mark the oil price in time Knowing as well Saudi that the global picture is at some degree of risk Coming this and next week under now the renewed protectionism coming out of the US Which could dent oil prices right at the worst time for Saudi without Aramco listing So yeah in the absence though of deeper collective cuts analysts have said that the Saudis could well start to just put some additional pressure on the likes of Iraq Nigeria who have been historically very bad with their compliance to just basically start Upping their game and falling into line and obviously the Russians will be key. So a couple of interesting points that I thought I'd share Rounding off the the headlines the other things here are in Germany. We were talking about this yesterday pretty Huge move in in Buns actually yesterday in German yields So I wanted to just give you an update because everyone yesterday was talking about perhaps now You know a revolutionary move from a from a fiscal budget point of view So we're moving out of the surplus to really ramp up government spending under this new leftist junior Partner coalition in the SPD. However now the dust has settled One of the things here that I read which I think was quite interesting was that they said the SPD and these these new Juo leaders that are more left rather than centrist I believe that ending the coalition Generally speaking in Germany then leads to the risk of a snap election now That's a particular risk for the SPD whose popularity has been decreasing Where support has slumped around 15% in some recent polls now the risk that that runs then is the SPD could lose out because in the polls at the moment the far right AFD are polling at a pretty much matched level so The idea here being then that maybe they won't want to disrupt and pull the plug on the existing coalition Because the risks are too great that if they did and we went down election route They could be completely out of power and you'd have a far right AFD potential Representation and so better off then just using your negotiation internally with Merkel's CDU to try and make make further headway So I just thought I would cover that New poll has come out overnight the ICM poll Importantly and this is going to be something quite interesting to watch over the coming days This is the first poll conducted which encapsulates the field work Post the event of the the tragic event that unfolded in London on Friday So this was polling people who would have already have experienced and known about that terror attack that happened on London Bridge Now what we've seen before is this often can lead to further support for the conservatives given the more aggressive policies on things like Policing immigration internal Kind of rulings about the severity of punishments in regards to the the criminal system and so on comparative to labor but One thing that happened was it wasn't like a big change if anything it was Stabilization the conservatives in the latest ICM poll have maintained a seven point lead over labor And so you remember the weekend There were what four new polls three of which labor were gaining and so if anything this is a slight positive for the conservatives on this side and in finally The Aussie is a little bit firmer overnight in the currency market So despite some of the the negatives we've been discussing on China and trade wars Australia had their RBA the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision as expected They didn't change rates. They kept it on hold at zero point seven five percent But they did say they are prepared to be patient as policy has long and variable lags So again, not looking to make any near-term moves if you're reading between the lines of the types of commentary That came alongside their actual holding in rates Looking at the actual calendar for today. What have we got? So on the data side of things UK construction PMI that's not going to really move Much the sterling currency will be the service number we'll get tomorrow, which will be more important Eurozone producer prices perhaps could be warrant watching the month-to-month is expected at flat The bottom-ended range there would be negative point one and this afternoon fairly quiet in the US We do get the API all of the trees after market But the thing I'd probably say you need to monitor really more is anything coming out of Trump As I said that full Agenda is available on my Twitter account to see all of the movements of today Really today is the build-up the actual NATO meeting starts happening tomorrow Demonstrations are apparently happening across London as they do when Trump arrives in town They're going to be happening from 3 p.m. Because then at Buckingham Palace. They're hosting a reception this evening before then the meeting kicks off first thing 7 30 a.m. For the the start of proceedings on Wednesday All right, that's it from me going to hand you over to Sam. I hope that was useful Remember to like and subscribe to the channel if you're not really done so for more updates and I'll catch you later on Thanks very much. Hi guys. Good morning. Hope we're all doing well Decent move lower in stocks yesterday and we did come down to test the Well, initially we filled the gap from a couple of weeks ago Decent reaction from that's put us down to a 15 minute. You can see a couple of times. We did come down to hit 31 11 we've got a good push back and we couldn't break below it as simple as that really and looking on the 240 That trend line that starts back on the 13th of the month Before November on November, I should say it's held up well So we're keeping an eye on that how it holds up because if that was to go 3100 could be a level to keep an eye on and as I mentioned in terms of sort of buying a dip Where would appeal to me? I do quite like the the look of and it was around this sort of point here 30 What was it 30 54 55? I think that's a good level as any to really come back in and haven't really necessarily Tested that area since we we did break through and you'll remember as well Maybe just a bit above that now is the the longer-term trend Channel the top part of that that we did break through on the first November So again, that would be probably worth it's having a quick look at to see where we're trading now for any Retracement to that point. It's gonna put this on for us here. Let's just keep it as a trend line Let's roughly draw that there so you can see well if that was to come in now around 67 You see the breakthrough on the the beginning of November that I was on about so that'd be worth keeping a watch on as well Just in case we are to have any followed through but must stress, you know until we really get below that trend line From the middle part of November, I wouldn't be too worried about this market Coming down too much. So but now holding up obviously above where we're trading We've got to keep an eye on any of these potential resistance points that we had previously been support that we broke through But you know that trend number we want to keep an eye on and then the retest of the overall big trend from the all-time highs As well the pound start in the the morning quite nicely Finally breaking above that trend in the early hours But we did come back and it would have probably caused a bit of drama So anyone wanting to get long in there, but we have pushed up to test up towards today's R2 So decent push there for the pound and if we put this on a 240 you can see the significance of this area Just above where we're trading 130 I'm going to draw a bit of a rectangle on that going back to the highs that we had back on the 17th of October We had a couple of goes at really trying to push above that couldn't quite make it. We came back on Halloween Brexit Day Apparently and the 18th of November couldn't quite get above where we're trading now So quite a lot of resistance above where we are trading How long we've got now nine days until The election and if we have a look just at the the recent price action of this market over the last few weeks We have been Overall just chopping in a bit of a range every time we potentially look like we're gonna have a go at breaking out of it We haven't so we're just coming up to the top end of that now So worth having this marked up and you can see the significance of this level if we go back to What was that April this year and then obviously retesting that now? So a key level on the longer-term chart to have a watch that around this 130 on the future There's a break above that could expect a point move. I would say relatively quickly If that was to take place But saying that each time we've come to either the top or bottom end of this range We've been met with some decent price action for a reversal euro. Yes, they're lovely day for any Person who was bullish and we're coming back up to its key point and top end of that range as well Just above 111 the handle on the futures You can see here once we've broken through this on the sick and the seventh of November We came back to retest it a couple of times in the mid-part and and it's held up very well Since then so keep a watch on that for the euro the downside you can see why on Friday We found support there So again longer term looking at this more as a a key level of support below resistance above and again If we were to break out of those points Then why can't we reach the other parts of the range 1202 up to the top? And then obviously that low that we had on the first of October down at 109 gold yesterday Had an attempt to try push higher but wasn't really met with much buy-in especially with stocks going lower and the dollar was weak You know you have to be slightly worried about that You know if you're a gold ball anyway 1450 still a key level to the downside the the top end of this range that we broke through We came back to retest that on the 20th of November. It was 1480 down the contract roll over taken into 87 So just be aware of that if trading futures But we are getting squeezed in from both directions you'd have to say now for gold So keep a watch on that and any potential break that could come drop this down to 240 You can just see maybe over the last few hours. We are just getting squeezed in from that top end So keep a watch on that once I put the pivots on just have a little look more Closer intraday on the 60 minute at where we're trading you can see from the last two Trading sessions those highs have been coming down and as well just below where we're trading here at 1465 Is a pretty key level? Yes a bit choppy yesterday But you can see we found support today and have been a really good price action point over Last week as well so gold getting squeezed from the top the bottom As well you could argue with the trend starting on the 26th really nicely Respected yesterday morning for the third test after we made one on Friday as well So I probably for gold wait for in terms of a bigger move outside of those trend lines or wait to see what happens at 1465 As well have a quick look at oil yesterday We pushed higher really an early morning trade and just couldn't get above the Low that 21st around 56 60 incredibly well respected technical level there that matches up along with yesterday's high today On the R1 to keep a close watch on that any push above that R2 marks up pretty well bang on with the low the 25th So oil quite well respected yesterday from a technical point of view Quite low in volume today It's gonna get a quick trend line on that just to Potentially see if we can get a third test of that Later on the higher today. We had a go at trying to break above what was again quite a good level 46 32 Yes, so you can see resistance late. Yes They was initially support and then the first real test of that today offering a level where the sellers have got in So we'll be keeping an eye on that trend line obviously the high from yesterday the R1 break above that you could see Fervor move towards 27, which was a key point as we can see back on the 25th Which didn't really stand in the way of Friday sell-off following that technical break as well Which would have picked things up to the downside quick look over at the Dax I mean well this time yesterday we were saying well hang on Dax is is trying to push up to the top end of that range quickly Reverse along with stocks across the board and a big push down. We are coming back now to test Some of those resistance points to keep a watch on that was it a pivot again worth keeping an eye on and with any of These equity markets, you know Yes, they was a day where the afternoon led to that selling so keep her a close watch on any support And if we do come down with a bit of force whether you would want to be a buyer around these levels or not Again, I'm not too sure there could still be some to come especially if one of these trends were to break So euro not necessarily massively strong today, which is allowing maybe the Dax to recover a bit But a strong day in the euro. Yes, they'll support the Dax down and the Bund as well You can see here still getting a bit choppy around those lows. I just clear up the Market levels you can see that low from yesterday was a decent area from the 13th as well So that 13th of November being attracted by quite a few markets a break below there in the bund and you can see the next horizontal Level that it'd be targeting We'll be down to the low the 12th the 8th and the 7th as well where there was quite a lot of buy-in that came in Again with these markets if you do get those retracements, just keep an eye On any previous lows and today the pivot 170 30 and the low of the 22nd all match up As well as usual any questions, obviously, please do let us know be on the mic throughout the day and Hope you will have a good one and I look forward to catching up with you all later