Hi, everyone. Welcome to today's webinar on fundamental trading strategy Part 1, brought to you by TickMill. Just wait a couple of minutes for everyone to tune in. So we are broadcasting this via Zoom, exclusively on Zoom. So this is the only platform where you'll be able to watch this webinar. So my name is Katen. And yeah, so just before we start, I can see everyone coming in. Hi, guys. Hi, everyone. Right. Okay, we also have the chat going as well. Right. So yeah, so at any point in time, please feel free to drop your questions, right? I'll be happy to answer all of your questions along the way as we progress through today's webinar. Right. Okay, I think we've got everyone coming in today. Mostly everyone is in. All right. Okay, excellent guys. Okay. So all right, so let's let's start. Okay, so today's session is on fundamental trading strategy Part 1. Okay, so just a quick disclaimer before we start, right? This material provided here is for information purposes and should not be considered as an investment advice. Right. The views, information and opinions expressed here belong solely to the author. Me today. Right. Okay. And also I would like to highlight the high risk warning disclaimer as well. CFDs are complex instruments. With a high risk as well. So please do all due diligence before putting on any trades. All right. Okay. Hi. All right. Yeah. Okay, the chat's working as well. Excellent. So hi, Neeraj. Hi, Paul. Okay, guys. Welcome. All right. Okay, so, so I said, okay, so my name is Kate. Yeah, Kate. I'm from a adverse fortune group. So if you have a part special partnership with Thick Mill, where we bring you the best analysis and webinars as well. EFG has been the best, has won several awards of which you can see our best effects research in 2019, 2020, 2021, as well as best equity research at 2020, 2021. So this was the technical analysis awards. Right. Okay, so now that we've got things going, we've got the disclaimers out. Let's just start. Okay, so today's agenda. Okay, what will we be covering today? We'll be looking at the information resource. So when we get all the info on fundamental, to help us with fundamental analysis. And we'll also be looking at central banks. What do they do with regards to monetary policy, their meeting schedules as well as potential interventions. And we'll also be looking at some of the key economic data and how it impacts forex movements as well. And for today's session will round up with the US dollar index and its composition. Okay. Right. Okay. Okay, so first of all, information resource. Okay, so the good thing is, I'm sure most of you have heard of Forex factory. So Forex factory is like the good thing is it's a central depository where we have the economic calendar. And not only does it have the calendar itself, it also has the links to the actual sources for each of the respective economic events or whether it's from the United States, the Eurozone, Australia, New Zealand, all the data links are provided in Forex factory as well. Okay, so you just, if you click on Forex factory, and then you look for the economic calendar, you will be able to find all the details. Right. Okay, Jamelew as well testing on the chat. All right. Hi Jamelew. Okay. So okay, so let's just have a quick look at Forex factory right so you guys are all familiar with this page Forex factory. So let's just run a quick example. Okay, so let's do today. Okay, all the timings in UTC plus eight plus zero, sorry, so that is GMT time just to make sure we're all in the time zone. This is GMT timing. Okay, so let's just look at. Okay, let's just look at from easy from March till now. Okay, so first of March till 24 April. Okay, so this is our calendar setting, and then we'll search and then you can. So you guys should be familiar with this you can set your timeframe. Period and then you can filter for the data that you're looking for so usually I pick the two most impactful options and of course event times I'll choose all the events. So let's start off with us data right because we all know this Federal Reserve is the biggest central bank in the world, and whatever they do anything with regards to monetary policy, or any other actions everyone is impacted by it right. So usually the other central banks will follow suit and will react in a similar fashion. Okay, so let's just look at from the US perspective first. Okay, so we apply the filter. We've got a few economic data points. Okay, so first we'll start off by looking for the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting event right that took place in March we had. Here we go yes on 22nd of March right there was FOMC meeting ran from 22nd to 23rd March. Okay, so over here you can see okay federal funds rate this is the interest rate. As you all know, if we click on this graph icon here you're able to see the history of how the Fed has been raising interest rates cutting them, and then raising interest rates again. So in this last year and a half the Fed has been aggressively raising interest rates. It is actually has been the quickest rate of increases since the 1970s, which was when the last inflation, highly inflationary period occurred. So, the Fed, together with all the other central banks have been raising interest rates in order to combat inflation. Okay, so we can see a brief history of how interest rates have been raised cut. Hello, and then raised again. Okay, now if you click on the folder icon. Right, we are able to get a brief description of what this economic data is all about, and where, what is the source of you click on latest release. It will take you to the FOMC website so the FOMC basically stands for Federal Open Market Committee, right the committee is made up of several members and the chairman. And of course, Jerome Powell should be a very familiar name for everyone. Okay, so over here, as you can see you will have the links for the previous years as well, and of course for 2023 so we are able to see the schedule for the items of the meetings. And not only are we able to see the dates upcoming dates. Right, so the next one we have in May, next week, right, all eyes will be on this, but not only do we have the schedule but we also have access to the statement to be able to read the statements as well if you click on PDF, if you wish you can feel I can read through the statement in detail to find out more exactly what you're talking about. Oops, okay, I didn't mean to close that, okay. And not only that you have also links for the press conferences because it's a two-step process. So the first is they'll announce the interest rates changes that they have done. And they will also release the statement and after which the chairman, Jerome Powell will run a press conference as well, where he will answer several questions and update things that are not included in the statement. So if you wish to watch the conference as well, you are able to do so. Okay. So this is here and also the other thing that gets released after each FOMC meeting are the minutes as well. So sometimes the minutes can have an impact on currency markets as the contents and details of the minutes usually might not be discussed in detail during the press conference or might not be even be included in the statement because as you can see the statement is quite a brief document with about four pages. And whereas if you want to look at the minutes, the minutes are more detailed, right, comprising of almost 10 pages of written text where they actually go and look at all the major discussion points. So this, that is why sometimes minutes can have an impact on currency markets as well. So this is where we can get all this information. Okay, so for the Federal Reserve. If you go back to Forex Factory, you look for the event called FOMC statement, Federal Funds Rate. Okay. So this is where it, like I said, click on the folder icon and then you can click on latest release. It'll take you to their website which is here and then you can go in detail, dive in and explore the minutes, the press conferences and the statements as well. Okay. Now, since we are on the topic of the Federal Reserve and the next meeting that's coming up next week, one tool that I like to use this is called the CME FedWatch tools. Okay, so if you want to key this in in Google, okay, so CME FedWatch tool whether you leave a space and only leave a space, I think it shouldn't matter, you should still get the right results. If you click on that, right, it takes you to the CME group and the first link is the one that we want CME FedWatch tool. So this is a very useful website where we are able to see the target rate probabilities for each upcoming meeting, right? So the next week, we're having the meeting on the 3rd of May. Current interest rates are between 475 and 500. So this is in terms of basis points. So what this basically means is 100 basis points is 1%. So basically we're looking at 4.75% to 5%. Okay, hi Neeraj. Okay, there's a question on best website for goal analysis. Okay, we won't be covering goal today. Probably I can try and do this in part two, right? Okay. Thank you for your question. Yeah, I will try and see if I can put this in for the next session. Okay, so, okay, so this tool tells us what the Fed is likely to do at the next upcoming meeting. So this website is always running and the target probabilities are always being calculated. So currently the interest rates are at 4.75 to 5%. And what this is telling us is the target rate. Okay, so let's just look at the upper band. So the upper band is currently at 5% or 500 basis points. And now there's a 85% probability that interest rates are going to be raised by 25 basis points. Okay, there's another question. Part two, which date? Okay, I believe just stay tuned on your usual TickMail website and your e-mailers. You'll be getting the information through those regular media channels, right? I'm sure the information will be released and marketed in due time. Okay, so what this website is telling us that there's an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the upper range to 525 basis points. So that's 5.25%. So this website is constantly updated with the latest probabilities. So we know beforehand what the Fed is very likely to do. Okay, so once you know what the Fed is very like, you're basically anticipating what the Fed is doing, you don't actually have to wait for the meeting, right? So you already know beforehand what we can advance a few days and once what the Fed is going to do, it is very likely some of the moves gets priced in before the statement is released and the meeting takes place. So this is one tool that I would like to use and it's very easy to search for it. Just remember CME Space Fed Watch Space Tool. You can bookmark it for future references and you can also you'll be able to do it for track the probabilities for future meetings after next week. Okay. Right, so the CME Fed Watch Tool. Okay, so now if we go back to our slides. Okay, so we talked about the data links where we can get. Okay. Then we will also look at, let me see, what do I... Okay, so I showed you guys the links, right? Okay, so let's bring up the slides. Okay, so remember Forex Factory from there, you're able to look for the relevant economic event be it from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, RBA Reserve Bank of Australia. Right, so what we looked at here was the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Calendar. And these are all the other links related to GDP, which is by BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis. You have ISM which is Institute for Supply Management which releases PMI results, purchasing manager index surveys for the manufacturing and services sector. BLS is Bureau of Labor Statistics where you can get information on the employment report, CPI, PPI. Right, okay. And right, okay, so this is the data links. So primarily once you have Forex Factory, you can find the others and just bookmark all the relevant economic events that you think are important for you. Okay, central banks. Let's just quickly touch on central banks. Okay, so as mentioned earlier, the Federal Reserve is the largest central bank in the world. And when they raise interest rates or cut interest rates, it has a major impact on the rest of the world. Right. And usually all the other central banks follow suit. Right, so as we know for the last 18 months or so the Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates aggressively. And this includes the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, BOE, BOC, RBA, RBNZ. The only central bank that stands out out of this list is the Bank of Japan. And despite rising inflation globally, sorry, despite inflation rising globally, the Bank of Japan is the only central bank that has actually maintained its interest rates and negative 0.1% while the rest have all been hiking aggressively. So there's a big divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and the rest of the other central banks. Okay, so this is also quite important because when you know what the major central banks are doing, you're able to see what we also would like to see is look out for divergence. Right. So what do I mean by divergence in monetary policy action. Basically, when one central bank is hiking, another one could be pausing or cutting rates. So in this case, let's just look at the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Right, the Federal Reserve was aggressively raising interest rates throughout 2022, whereas the BOJ was keeping its rate as negative 0.1%. So you have a big divergence in policy actions. It is also reflected in the bond yields as well. And also ultimately it gets reflected in the currency pair, which is the US dollar and Japanese yen. Okay, so when we know that there's such a big divergence going on in monetary policy with regards to monetary policy action, it is probably logically, we would think that yes, the Federal Reserve is raising rates. Bank of Japan is keeping it at negative 0.1. And not only is the Federal Reserve raising rates, they were doing it very aggressively. It is very logical to think that the dollar yen will gain against, or the dollar yen will rise, right? USD, JPY, dollar yen will rise. And this is what has exactly happened. So if we were to go to TradingView and you look at the dollar yen. Okay, this is a, okay, hang on, sorry, this is a daily chart. Okay. Let me just zoom out so we can see the start of 2022. Right? Okay, so this was the period in March when the Federal Reserve started raising rates. Right, the first one kicked off in March and they raised 75 basis points. And in each of the first, I think three or four meetings, so this was the fastest and most aggressive rate hike action carried out by the Fed. While at the same time, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rates at negative 0.1%. So in this scenario, we can tell that, okay, logically, like we said, right? We're basically thinking if one bank is raising interest rates, the other is keeping it at negative, you would expect the currency pair. In this case, the dollar yen to rise, which is what was exactly happening. So once we are able to determine the longer term or the overarching monetary policy view for the central banks involved in this currency pair, we can see that, okay, the high probability trades are, is to go long. Of course, they are pullbacks along the way, but over the course of a few weeks of over two months, the most high probability trades were to go long with regards to the dollar yen. Whether you're a position trader, or a position trader over like a weekly outlook, or maybe two to three day outlook, the high probability trades would have been to the upside. So naturally, there's also pullbacks along the way. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Conversely, nothing goes down in a straight line. But once we are able to determine what is the overarching monetary policy framework in place between the Fed and BOJ, you can determine that, yes, okay, I will, I will be looking to go long the dollar versus the yen. Okay, so then we, as you can see all the way till November 2022, the dollar yen broke 152. So basically this means the Japanese yen was getting devalued very strongly versus the US dollar as the Fed raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. Okay, now, this brings us to another part of what central banks do, right? Okay, you have monetary policy actions, whether you're cutting rates, raising rates, keeping rates steady. Another thing that central banks can do is intervene in the open market, right? So these are called central bank interventions. So now why this is important? So interventions means they're doing something that is not part of the usual framework, right? So now in this period in October and October early November, the Japanese yen was getting overly devalued. And this is not good for Japan as well, because as a country, their imports become more expensive. Whereas their exports are more attractive to the rest of the world, but the imports become more expensive and this adds to inflationary pressures back in Japan. So during this period, the Bank of Japan intervened in the open market. So if this news was, naturally, was captured by all the big media outlets, right? So if you're paying attention to currency news, effects news, this you would have seen this intervention by the Bank of Japan being covered by various media outlets. So let's just type BoJ intervention 2022, right? So let's go. Yeah, okay. So let's just click on this one for CNBC. So Japan intervenes in the FX market. So what this means is the Bank of Japan, sorry. Okay, apologies for that. Okay, so the Bank of Japan was actively engaging in the open market, in the foreign exchange open market by buying the Japanese yen to stem its devaluation, right? So as you can see by this, by the bullet points here, Japanese yen was getting better. It was getting devalued to a level where it was not sustainable for the long term. So thus the Bank of Japan had to intervene in the open market, right? And by buying the yen to prop up its price, right? And as you can see, we mentioned they still kept interest rates ultra low, but because of this policy and with the Fed acting in the opposite direction, their currency was getting devalued very strongly. And so thus they had to intervene by buying the yen in the open market. So when they do that, you can see it basically created a turning point for the dollar yen. So the intervention had a major impact on the direction of the dollar yen. And despite the last quarter of 2022 where the Fed was still raising rates and Bank of Japan was still kept their interest rates at negative 0.1. But because of the intervention action carried out by Bank of Japan, the dollar yen actually started to pull back pretty significantly all the way till early January as well. So if you had caught the news of Japan, the Bank of Japan rather, sorry, intervening in the open market, you would have stopped and thought to yourself, okay, hang on, there's a big change in action by the Bank of Japan, right? They have intervened strongly in the open market, right, in the FX market, in the open FX market, and they have started to buy the yen aggressively to stem its devaluation and bring it back down to a level where they're probably more comfortable with. So in this scenario, you would have been looking to short the short dollar yen, right? So here in the first 10 months of 2022, you would have been looking to go long, generally most of the time, but of course, like I said, nothing goes up in a straight line. So this is where your technical analysis on a daily timeframe or H4 timeframe will help you identify various support and resistance levels. And then once you know what is the overarching theme, you will deploy your strategies accordingly. In the end of October, early November onwards, once BoJ had intervened, it was a signal, a turning point in the direction of this currency pair. So over here, you'd be looking to short dollar yen, but of course, like I said, even on the way down, nothing goes down the straight line, we have pullbacks as well. So this is where you can combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis, looking at what central banks are doing, and is there anything new or different that they've recently announced, and you can combine all these factors to at least determine what is the environment that we are in. Right, so this is the, as you can see over time as the, as time played out, the dollar yen from a high of 152 dropped to as low as about, yeah, the low, the high 120, so it's 128, around 128. So this is how we can use monetary policy action, keeping out an eye on news, and then mash it all up with technical analysis to give us the best outlook and also to give us a good problem to help us set up high probability trades be it long or short. Okay, so we've covered the major central banks, the calendars, what the Fed is doing, and also looking out for interventions. Right, so these are some of the key fundamental aspects to look out for. Okay, so let's see next would be. Okay, I think I will. Okay, so next we will look at economic data. Right, okay. So economic data is, there's a wide range of economic data. So what should we focus on. Right. Many things ranging from GDP to to employment report numbers and to inflation figures as well. Okay, so one of the key aspects of why the Fed is still continuing to raise interest rates is because the economy is still strong. And the labor market is still very tight. So what did it mean by a tight labor market it means unemployment rate is low, and total employment numbers are high. So when you have an environment where you have steady economic growth, and a very strong and robust labor market. The Fed can continue to raise interest rates. Right, even though they're already at 5% that the upper range is at 5% now, they will still, as you can see the CMB Fed watch tool, they're very likely to raise another 25 basis points next week, next week. So this is why it is important to be aware of the current level of economic activity in terms of GDP PMI surveys, and also the employment report, which tells us the unemployment rate and also the total non farm employment figures. Okay, so let's see how should I proceed with the next part. Okay, okay, before I just proceed and go into economic data is there anything you guys would like me to touch on, or just review what we've discussed. If not, I can just proceed to the next part of this webinar. Okay, so I think, right, okay, so far, no questions. Okay, so we'll just proceed on to the next part. So, GDP, okay, okay, there's been a lot of talk of recession right. So, let's just look at a couple of things. Okay, so let's just look at where the previous GDP. So, most of the economic data gets released on a monthly basis, right GDP is released every quarter but along the way, we have to advance estimate second estimate and third estimate. The third estimate is usually the last and final reading. For that particular period. Okay, I see a question by Raj. Okay, let me check with Desmond on this and see how I can, I'll feed this, I'll feedback this, this update, I'll feedback this detail to Desmond and I will try and sort this out for you guys. All right. Okay, so going back to GDP. Okay, so we, after, after a technical recession. In the first half of 2022, the US economy has actually bounced back strongly in the second half of last year. Right, and it's also chugging along quite well. This year as well. Okay, so we know the economy has bounced back at the end of second the second half of last year and after the banking crisis in March with signature signature bank SVB Silicon Valley bank. We have a recession talk again, but actually, if you actually, we have to look at the underlying economy and how it is actually doing. So, right now, the third and final estimate for the Q4 2022 the reading was 2.6%. But what's actually happening in the first quarter right. So if you look at our calendar. Look at our calendar so if you come to it, don't we have sorry. Okay, let me just change the date. So if we look at our calendar today, right 24th March. Here we have GDP and one GDP coming up as well. So this is actually the GDP data for the first quarter of 2023. Right. Okay, so they're expecting the initial estimate was 2% growth on a quarterly basis and as you can see the previous reading the fourth quarter reading of 2022 came in at 2.6%, which is what we see over here. Okay, but how do we know how can we get a better estimate of where the economy currently is. Okay, so another tool that's good to use is called the GDP. Now tools of your time GDP now space Atlanta space fed. Okay, this is Atlanta Fed is one of the regional banks are the governing body. Right. You have the main Federal Reserve and then you have all the various reserve. Bank says I mean banks from different regions of the US so if you type GDP now Atlanta Fed, what it, it will bring you to a website that actually gives you the estimate the running estimate for the current quarter right on the previous quarter. So what now we have moved on into the second quarter of 2023, which runs from April, May to June. And we're going to have the first estimate of the GDP data being announced on 27 April 1230pm UTC zero or GMT time. So if you go to the GDP now website, you're actually able to see what is the current estimate for the growth. So the growth is actually coming in at 2.5%. So this is actually higher than the initial estimate of 2% here, and it's not that far off from the fourth quarter figure. So this is actually telling us that the US economy is still growing pretty steadily, despite all the banking fiasco that happened in early March. Majority of it seems to be resolved, and the US economy is chugging along pretty well. So this data is updated on a weekly, every week so we can track this website and see exactly how well the US economy is actually going. So this is actually more gives you more timely update and is more frequent as well because you're able to see the updates every week. Okay, then another aspect. What is also another important figure is the employment report, right? So if we go back to here, we had employment reports for the US announced earlier this year. So 7th April, sorry, earlier in April this month. So we have non-farm employment change, which are your NFPs, non-farm payrolls, and you have your unemployment rate. So you click on the folder, go to latest release, it will bring you to the employment situation summary. Now naturally, we won't have time to read through all this, right? Well, what's important is always easy to understand data through charts. So let's just click on news release charts. And it will take you to this page where you have various data points. And here the first one is the unemployment rate. So the unemployment rate has been ranging between 3.4 and 3.7% for like almost over a year now. So as you can see, unemployment rate is low. So despite all the tech layoffs that we've been hearing about and seeing since the last quarter of last year and even start of this year, you can see it has not had a big impact on the unemployment rate. That could be related to a few things. One is that people who are getting laid off had probably could be a combination of getting hired again rather quickly. And also the tech industry as big and as powerful it is, it doesn't become a huge significant factor of the total U.S. employment, right? You're just looking at one sector out of many industries and sectors that make up the U.S. economy. So this is one way of seeing where the unemployment data rate is. And this is all on a monthly basis. And to look at non-fund payroll numbers. Okay, so you click on the filter, go to establishment survey data and click on employment by industry monthly changes. And click on go. Oh, wait, sorry, not this one. Where is it? Is it? Okay, I think it's employment by industry. Yes, sorry. Okay. So we want to look for establishment survey data and then look for the subtitle employment by industry. Okay, so this brings us to the page where we get the total non-fund figures, total private and also all the various sectors that we can see here. So naturally, after the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, employment numbers crash unemployment rate spiked, but then ever since then as economies reopened and people got back to work, whether work from home or physically in office. Non-fund payroll numbers have continued to rise pretty steadily and they've even surpassed the pre-COVID high. So what this tells us is the labor market is very strong and healthy. So that means the Fed can still continue to raise interest rates if they wish to do so. But obviously this is not the only factor that they look at and also look at PMI numbers, GDP figures and also of course the inflation rate. But this is one of the primary reasons why the Fed would still like to raise interest rates because there's no break in the labor market. It is still very tight and strong with low unemployment and high non-farm employment levels. So you can break it down into various industries as well. You can look at leisure, hospitality, financial activities, professional and business centers. Is there anything? No, there's nothing on tech. Okay, maybe it's probably under information. Most likely it could be under information as well. So yeah, so there's various industry sectors here that you can look at. Okay, now the other one that I would like to look at is PMI data and inflation. Actually, I have a very interesting chart here that actually shows us how the inflation, rising inflation was actually forecasted by the ISM report. Indirectly or inexplicitly it was forecasted. Okay, so if we go back here, sorry, oops. Okay, if you look at this chart, this is showing us the annualized CPI of the US versus the ISM prices average. Okay, so maybe just a quick view on what is ISM. So if we just look, okay, so ISM services PMI. Let's click on that and go to their latest release. Okay, so you have various sectors, the manufacturing sector services sector hospital is something relatively new which was created after COVID or during COVID. But the ones that we want to look out for will be the surveys or reports for manufacturing and services. So if we just quickly look at the charts, do you have the headline PMI reading together with the sub indices here. So if you can see a reading above 50 means that this sector is expanding and growing and reading before below 50 means this sector is contracting or slowing down. So throughout 2021 and the first half of 2022 the manufacturing sector was still expanding LB at a slower rate and finally towards the end of last year the manufacturing sector started contracting. And what we want to look out here is for the prices indices are every month the various readings that various sub indices are readings for the various sub indices are released. So if the prices indices actually tells us what is the inflation level in manufacturing manufacturing sector. Similarly, if we go to the services report, the services sector is still strong, although it had a month of contraction right at the end of last year it is actually rebounded pretty strongly. And the readings are still above 50 indicating that the services sector is still growing and it is actually driving overall economic growth in the US. And similarly you will have the prices sub index here as well, which tells you whether inflation in the services sector is increasing or decreasing. Okay, so by tracking this figures and we are able to see the historical performance or historical yeah historical performance between ISM prices and the CPI data. So let's just go back to our slides. Okay, so what we are looking at here. The blue line is CPI consumer price index. This is the headline CPI on an annualized basis why or why is year over year so annualized basis. So the blue line is annual CPI, which we know hit a high of 9.1% in around June middle of last year before it peak that has been moderating pretty significantly. But this is good because this is telling us that the fence actions of raising interest rates is having an effect on inflation.  When boring costs are high, you will tend not to expand or take on larger projects for example so that means demand is slowing down so when demand slows down. And your supply steady but we also had a bunch of supply chain problems due to the pandemic lockdowns but supply chains have also moderated and improved rather sorry supply chains have improved and together with falling demand. Overall inflation peaked in June of 2022 last year and has been moderating pretty significantly. But what is important here is to look at the red line. The red line here is telling us the average of the ISM prices sub index remember there was a survey or report for ISM manufacturing and another one for services. And in both of those reports there were several sub index indices right and one of the key the ones that I was looking at was prices. So when you take the average of those two sub indices, we get the red line as we see here and if you plot it in comparison with CPI, you can see that ISM prices over time generally leads CPI prices to the upside and also to the downside. So on the left side here is your your y axis for the CPI and the right side is your axis for the prices, which is at an index level, not a percentage is an index level whereas CPI is measured in percentage. But as you can see clearly over time, ISM prices has led CPI so what this means is when whether ISM prices moves up or down it is actually telling us that CPI is likely to follow suit. Similarly after the financial crisis in 08 ISM prices bottomed around the level around 30, around the 30 level is started rising CPI headline CPI bottomed at about negative 2% a few months after and then started rising sharply so you can see that. Back then in 2008 CPI ISM prices were really telling us inflation was going to rise and CPI followed suit. Similarly, in around 2014 ISM prices started to hit down first before CPI started falling so similarly you could see that inflation is falling here or ISM prices are falling. And this means that very likely that CPI will also fall. Similarly, you can see that happen over the years and it also is very obvious here in 2020 and 2021. After the pandemic lockdowns, demand fell so naturally prices fall and then as economies reopen and activities resume, manufacturing activities resume, services activities resume although at well they resume progressively right nothing. Everyone was taking baby steps to reopen at different, they're all reopening at various rates and stages. So as you can see here, ISM prices, the average started rising pretty sharply, at least two to three months ahead of the CPI reading. So based on this we could already tell that CPI is expected to rise right and if CPI is rising we have to look at what the Fed is thinking and what were they planning on doing. So if this if you see ISM prices rising and you also see CPI following suit, it means that the Fed is probably thinking about raising interest rates pretty soon. And then we have to look at what bond yields are doing right the benchmark bond yield is the 10 year bond yield. So if you can see us bond yields rising quickly. It also usually means that the dollar is going to be in strong demand. So, when the US 10 year bond yield rises the dollar index rises, generally this was a period where the dollar would outperform most of its peers right or rather or probably almost all of its peers and similarly, the ISM prices peaked. I would say in the second quarter of 2022. Well before CPI peaked and actually started heading down pretty sharply. And this was already telling us that CPI is about inflation overall inflation in the United States is about to follow suit is very likely going to follow suit. So this is also a period where we saw in the second half of 2022, especially third quarter onwards where US bond yield started to fall aggressively the dollar index also was falling aggressively. So this was a period where inflation was falling. And despite the Federal Reserve raising continuing to raise interest rates the dollar index was actually falling. And the dollar was losing its its strength versus all its peers. So this is how we try and predict inflation as well using ISM reports and looking at the prices sub index. So there was a bit of a scare in I think February where the prices index picked up. But the good thing was in the latest reading for the month of March it headed down back again, and also the latest CPI reading also continues to fall lower. So it does for now it does look that like inflation has peaked and should continue to head lower so looking at ISM prices index we are able to at least try and rely reliably forecast the direction of overall inflation. Okay, so let's just look at the dollar index right just to visualize visualize this over a chart or with a chart. So this was a period where inflation was rising. The US bond yields were rising right the 10 year bond yield was rising. And we also had naturally as you can see the dollar index rising as well. And then, as inflation peaked in although inflation peaked in June, it was still and started falling the dollar index was still rising. The bond yields were still rising. It was only here in this third quarter and fourth quarter at the start of fourth quarter of last year where the dollar index peaked started falling and bond yields also started falling. So despite the Federal Reserve, continuing to raise interest rates over this period, actually, all the moves in FX had actually reversed. So let's look at the Euro dollar. So okay, your dollar so when the dollar is strong, your dollar is going to fall so which is what was actually happening. And then in October, November is when there was a big change in the direction of bond yields and also in the dollar index when the dollar index started losing its value. All its counterparts will gain. So this is when the Euro had a big strong rally as well. And it also is reflected in the pound, the British pound as well. Right. So if you just look at dollar index. Together with okay, I'm just going to split the chart. So okay, stop chart is dollar index, bottom chart we're going to look for the US 10 year bond yield. So just type US 10 why you'll get United States 10 year government bond yield. So this is the benchmark yield. So we can. Okay, let's just put it on the weekly chart cause. Yes, sorry. Okay. Okay, it's easy to visualize the moves between the government bond yields and the dollar index on a weekly time chart so you can see the longer trends and you can also see the inflection points. So, as we've, as I've mentioned earlier, so October, November was the period where several things happened we had a BoJ intervention as well. And it was also one of the turning points where bond yields peaked right the US 10 year period peaked at about 4.3% or close to it. And then it has fallen to about 3.4% while the dollar index has been falling aggressive pretty sharply as well. So even though bond bond yields are relatively historically elevated, the dollar index continued to fall while the Federal Reserve was still raising rates and it, and it looks like next week they're going to raise continue to raise interest rates as well. So although this is this is why it's important to also look at what bond yields are doing and what the dollar index is doing because sometimes it can be a bit. We may not get the complete picture by just looking at monetary policy actions by off the central banks. So if you're just looking at what the Fed was doing at every FIMC meeting they were raising rates they're still, and they're still continuing to do so. And you just were looking at that singular data point, then actually you would have gotten your idea or your overview of the currency pretty wrong. Right, so despite Fed raising interest rates, bond yields started to fall, bond yields peak started to fall, dollar index also started to fall. Right, so this was something that you would have, you would need to pay attention to and follow what the benchmark 10 year bond yield is doing. Right, so the bond yield stays about 3.5% and continues to head lower despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the dollar index could continue to fall further as well. So this is how we use fundamental data or how we perform fundamental analysis by looking at what central banks are doing. What are there any divergence between monetary policy actions between the various central banks. We also look at potential interventions that have taken place. I think we definitely can't predict any intervention by any central bank but it's important to take note when an intervention takes place and who has done it and why. And that's also important potential important turning points in the direction of the currency. We look at economic data, such as GDP growth, PMI numbers, unemployment numbers. Okay, the good thing about most of the economic data, it's a release on a monthly basis so you don't have to track it every day. You can track it on a monthly basis and form the longer term view of where the market is headed, where what sort of environment are we in. And then from there you're able to determine the right strategies for your trading. Okay, and let's see if I okay next key then. Okay. Okay, I'll just go back to the slides and we'll just talk about the US dollar index right and the composition so wise. Okay, just a quick history or dollar index okay so basically it was established in 1973 after the Bretton Woods agreement was dissolved. Basically, under Bretton Woods, the goal was the basis for the United States, and all the other currencies were packed to the value of the US dollar so basically, the Federal Reserve. To hold the value of gold to pack to form this foundation of a value of the US dollar and all the other countries were packed to the US dollar but then this agreement was dissolved and the base for the dollar index, the dollar index was established and the base was set at 100. So that is why you see dollar index ranging between, and it's highest 110, 115 to the low of maybe 90 or 80 so it's all referenced to the value of 100 which was established back in 1973. Okay, and the dollar index is consisted of, or made up of various currencies, which is the euro, the Japanese yen pounds sterling Canadian dollar Swedish corner, and I'm sorry this will be Swiss Frank. Sorry about that. Yeah, okay so the Swiss Frank. So, as you can see, the biggest component of the dollar index is the euro. So what this tells us is that if we see dollar index moving up very aggressively or falling very quickly. It means it's very likely that the euro will have the inverse performance right or the opposite performance. So that is why it's also important to note the relative performance of the dollar index together with more deals. So at least we are then able to establish the direction for the rest of the currency pairs, particularly the euro since the euro makes up almost 60% of the basket. It will be the currency that will have the most impact versus the rest of the currency or the rest of the components. Okay, so this is also quite important to know that if you're just going to trade euro dollar, you should be looking at the fact the ECB what they're doing in terms of monetary policy action. It will be important to know what the how bond yields the relevant bond yields are performing relative to each other. And then once we know how dollar index is performing rising or falling, it will have the most impact on the euro itself. This is about dollar index. So naturally, yeah, so if you switch this to right. So the dollar, the euro will have the tightest inverse correlation to the dollar index right to remember this euro is in the pad with the US dollar as the denominator. So if the dollar index is falling, that means this denominator is falling so hence the euro is going to rise and conversely the opposite will happen as we see here from June of 2021, all the way to October 2022, when the dollar index over a longer term period was rising very sharply and the euro was falling very strongly. Okay, so just to recap, before I, yeah, what is the highest leverage offered to treat us okay this depends on the on how tick mill has done it right okay so we won't be covering answering this question here today but before I would end the webinar, I would just like to do a quick recap again right so we've gone through the information resource where to get the relevant data so remember for X factory takes us gives us consolidates all the information for us across the various countries and central banks. And then from there we're able to go directly to the specific source and find out more details about that particular piece of economic data. Right and then we also have to, we know we have identified the central, which are the major central banks it's important to note the monetary policy actions taken by them. It's also important to note the meeting schedule, and also to look out for any interventions that have taken place. Then we look at economic data, right, these are not the only data points but I would say this are probably some of the ones that are probably a bit more important and you can start tracking these for as well GDP PMI's employment report inflation, and I've also talked about the dollar index and its components and the respective weightage so you can see how the rise and fall of the dollar index impacts other currencies, particularly the euro. Okay, okay there's a question by way where can we get the recording. I believe this yeah this recording will be put up on tick meals website as well. So I think just look out for any emails if you're mailing list look out, look out for the emails and also just look at their website as well and when will it be available, not to show but probably maybe by the second half of this week I guess at the earliest it should be available as well. All right. Okay. Okay, any questions or would you guys like me to revisit anything that was discussed today. Okay, guys. Okay, well if there's no further questions, then I would just end the webinar now and I hope this has been a good session for you guys. And yeah I look forward to presenting. I look forward to presenting the next session part two for you guys right so do look out for the date it'll be the information will be released soon, whether you have the mailing list or on the website itself right okay so do look out for the next available date and also the recording will be made available as well as well. Okay so most likely they should be done in the second half of this week I suppose right. All right. Thank you everyone. Have a good start to the trading week. Yeah, and yeah, all right. Yeah, good luck and I look forward to the next session right take care guys.


Hello everyone, welcome back to another tutorial. In this one, I want to show you the best free AI image generator or text to image generator. It's not mid-journey, it's not dolly, it's in fact canva and it's hidden. Let me show you how to do this. Let me just show you here. It's currently unlimited. That's why I believe it to be the best one. The other versions, mid-journey for example, you only get 25 before they make you pay for it. Let me show you what I'm talking about though. Here you go. Create a design and then I'm going to go ahead and create a logo. It's going to make a 500 by 500 rectangle here and now let me show you what you want to do. You want to go over here to the left side, click on more and then here's where it gets interesting. Click on this text to image. This is an AI generator. That's right. It creates images. It's amazing. Here are a few examples. You can type in objects, colors, locations, surroundings, people. They've got some examples here so we'll just go ahead and click on one of these, panda riding through a bike and now if we click on that we get to select a few different options. Let's start on the left. You can take a wild guess here with a surprise. You can have a photo, a drawing, 3D, painting, pattern and concept art. This is so cool. Again, this is free. We've selected panda riding. Let's go ahead and click on photos. See what we get. It takes a few seconds so I'll just skip through this and let's go ahead now and click generate image. Here we go. This is what the photo gave us. How cool is this? Let's click on this one here. Add it in. I'm just going to increase the size.  Look at this. This is totally free. Presto, we've got the AI image generator. Let's start again and see what the other options look like. Let's look at drawing. Let's click on this. I'm going to click generate image and it'll come back when it's done. Holy smokes. Look at this. I mean, click on this. Add this in. I'm just going to make it nice and bigger so you can see it. What the heck? I mean, we've got some amazing looking stuff here. This is a cool one as well. I'll add that on top. This is all being done for free, unlimited using Canva Text to Image. Check out this tool. It's worth your time. Thanks for watching.


Hi everyone and welcome back to another episode of our Pokemon Road to Ranked roulette series We kicked off this brand new series last week on the channel and it has been a lot of fun I hope you guys are enjoying it Thank you so much before we get into anything to each and every one of you for all of the support the comments the views Just getting involved and especially all of the nominations that we've had for Pokemon for the team last week And also for the team this week I literally was going through the list of all the nominated Pokemon for this week and literally smiling Year-to-year just looking through and thinking I want that Pokemon I hope this Pokemon comes out. I really like all of the selections that we've had this week have been amazing So I'm having a lot of fun with this series But hopefully the main thing is that you guys are enjoying it and having a lot of fun with it as well It is completely different to what we normally do. It's not serious We're here to have fun choose some really random Pokemon and hopefully showcase them and maybe find some hidden gems and You never know we might get some along the way this week, but getting into this week. We need to select that brand new team I did ask you guys what you prefer two week cycle with a team or a one week cycle I came back pretty anonymous that you wanted a one week cycle So we're gonna be doing a brand new team while we're doing this series every single week So I will be putting up a new poll on the YouTube channel Probably Tuesday Wednesday time I will let you know to go and start nominating for next week's Pokemon selection So without further ado though, let's get into the fun animations to kick us off today and see what the roulette throws out for a Brand new six Pokemon team going into this week So we'll be right back and we'll hit that roulette wheel right now an incredible team got into this week We've got tapu bulu Chameco. I don't think I've ever played Chameco ever I don't even think I've caught one and get well I might have caught one in game at some point, but I don't think I've ever played it. It's a very cool Pokemon It's got some really cool text that we can use but it's gonna be exciting to play it. We've got Articuno We've got Nucrosma the original Nucrosma as well Tyranitar as you well know for all of you guys out there that do know me Tyranitar is probably my favorite Pokemon I see this about a lot of Pokemon, but really Tyranitar It's definitely hands down my favorite Pokemon if you had to ask me that would be my answer every single time So we've got the Tyranitar. We've got Sylveon as well another really favorite Pokemon on mine So I've put a team together with the Pokemon you can see the the nominations from a Lovely viewers on the screen in front of you right now. So we had the tapu bulu from Mojaru I'm sorry if I'm butchering that username, but that's that's yes, Mojaru with tapu bulu We had Chameco from Hamid Lee We had Will Hopper getting another selection two weeks in a raw will but he pulling out the Sylveon this week from the Wheel we've got Articuno from Luciano So that's a really cool suggestion and Nucrosma from Zed Hoffman another one that's had another selection this week So and then Tyranitar from Jungle Hunter as well So you can see all of those on your screen big shout out to everyone that has nominated and sorry to everyone That didn't get their selection coming up But we do have three buttons that we can activate this week remember we've got our legend maker We've got our randomizer and we've got our random switch up button that we can activate Come Wednesday if we want to change things up with the team So there is three more chances for you guys who have nominated Pokemon to get those Pokemon going in the rest of this week So we will get to Wednesday. We will definitely activate the buttons this week But hopefully we kick off with a good start this week. So this is a team As you can see on the screen in front of you as always the raw paste poker paste is down in the description below If you'd like to check it out try it out I'm gonna say that Articuno spread is probably one of my favorite ones And I'm really hoping we can get it going because that will be a lot of fun and really mean me if we can't get it going This week check it out. I'll not spoil anything just yet And I guess without further ado Let's crank some music on and let's get into today's episode. So I'm really looking forward to it We've got the Chameco the Sylveon. We've got the Articuno the Nucrosma The Tyranitone Tabulu, so let's select some music What are we gonna go with let's go with league title defense to kick us off today and Hopefully it doesn't take too long to find our first opponent. I'm really nasally as well I'm really sorry if it's coming across like bad on the audio my voice in general But my hair fever this weekend is being absolutely brutal And I took we took the air to the beach today, which was the first time she's ever been to the beach We've had an amazing day. It's been so sunny and nice as well. And I think she liked it She slept for most of the time We've got one of these weird carrier things that you can put her in she was like snuggled up in a little ball on My front and yeah, we went to the beach. It was nice. We had ice cream So what what what better what better way to spend a Sunday afternoon? I I don't know but we've got Joker up as our first opponent. So let's get into team preview and let's see what we're going up against here Okay, so we've got Joker. He's playing a team of Requiser incinero Garchomp good old Garchomp haven't seen you for a while my old friend Groudon Tapu Lily and Aerodactyl and anyone out there that's putting suggestions in this week Garchomp would be a great nomination going into next week's team if it does come out But that's just one of mine that may be a pick that I would throw in and okay So we've got definitely tailwind is the primary speed control source on My opponent's team. You've got the Aerodactyl there providing that for the team Outside of that. They're really lacking any sort of speed control and So trick room could be very good for us for sure and And if they do bring the tapu lele for the psychic train It does help us out a bit against the air the requiser with his extreme speeds We've got to watch out for the incinero though That is a little bit awkward to deal with I am gonna bring Chameco up top Bring Chameco and Do we go Sylvean or do we keep Sylvean for late game maybe Sylvean late game we could go on a crossbar It's just then we leave ourselves a little bit weak to incinero I'm gonna bring Tito up top I'm gonna bring Sylvean in the back and then I'm gonna throw in a cross mark probably bench Articuno and tapu booloo here Yeah, we're locking with those We're getting to this first one today. Hopefully we have I just feel like Articuno has a really tough time Yeah, you've got the ground on you got the incinero and then you got the Aerodactyl It'll give a really tough time So I think when we're playing Articuno and we were trying to get that move set Specifically off. I think we need the right conditions. We need the right team to play it against now I do feel like the team does have a few holes in it We are kind of weak to a lot of the big threats in this format, but we'll see if we can get around them We're gonna say go chomp. I'm gonna say Aerodactyl come out for my opponent So we've got a great opportunity here to get our trick room up with Chameco because we do have levitate On Chameco, so we can get around the guard chomps big ground type attacks, but problem is T-tiles are not in the best of places right now. I tell you what we'll do. We'll Z trick room With Chameco and we'll just do the mega evolve just yet. Probably not I don't really want to give the guard chomp in core Big advantage here. It's just I kind of worry about a tectonic bridge coming up from the guard chomp, but maybe Maybe we don't see that Can we bring in the Crosmar? I'm gonna bring in the Crosmar right now. I feel like the Crosmar Will do a better job at this point Then T-tile So we'll see we'll get both of our psychic types out on the field. We're gonna see just an earthquake come out Okay Chameco obviously has that levitate ability can get around that. I wonder what the aerodactyl is gonna do. It's scarf guard chomp as well Which is interesting. So and of course I've taken that pretty comfortably tailwind. Boom. Perfect Chameco and the thing is with Chameco as well. So I've kind of went down a similar route to how we'd run Psychinium Z bronze on with the Z trick room and then the hymnosis so we can start putting things to sleep Okay So that's good. So we can start putting things to sleep which is good because we get that accuracy boost with the Z trick room Yeah, let's put the guard chomp to sleep Should we just get a calm mind up while we can with the Crosmar? I feel like it's probably good good thing to do right now Aerodactyls likely got protected. We know the guard chomp hasn't because it went before the aerodactyl So definitely a scarf there Locked into that earthquake so we can definitely get a hymnosis off into that slot for sure Stop those earthquakes coming out and the aerodactyl is not really threatening too much It could have Z move and it could be a bit problematic for the Crosmar, but I think we'll be alright So there's our first hypnosis Chameco putting in all the work already. What a great suggestion as well It was like it would be one of those Pokemon that I would totally just not think of because it's just one of those Pokemon sadly that I just don't have much experience with even playing the games But then I look at it and think so cute. It's so cute. I need it. I need it Okay, we're gonna see Rob slide come up from the aerodactyl. We do get the calm mind up with Crosmar, so that's good. We can double into the aerodactyl here. We could just put the aerodactyls to sleep and I Guess go for a photon geyser into the guard chomp here I think in earthquake I'll probably just proc a barrier on the Crosmar That would be my best guess Chameco being really disruptive here. Oh God, I'm gonna switch out. So whatever comes in. Oh, it's grout on photon geyser. I Don't mind this Really mean we get some nice damage off onto it and then the next turn it is gonna be susceptible to Aerodactyl might protect here, who knows Just like line activating now from that grout on so we're gonna have the Sun up No, sis. There we go. Chameco on point. Aerodactyl gonna have a snooze Okay, so redactyl fall in the sleep photon geyser Coming out Wow, that does so much damage. That does so much damage. That's crazy Okay, I Guess we'll chip the aerodactyl with a sidekick and We'll go for another photon geyser into the ground on Because the Crosmar should under speed like this see like my opponents team like we've said it is it is generically a Tailwind team so I would imagine most things on the team are quite fast offensive From that damage on this ground on as well You can kind of tell that it's probably not the the bulkiest so it's not really gonna be the slowest The slowest thing here. Okay, so aerodactyl still Sleep sleep sleep. Chameco getting that psychic off. There we go It did go for the protect that try to and photon guys are gonna get rid of the grout on so that's one big big big problem out of the way Which is nice And I wonder if they'll be the Rayquaza it comes in as the last Pokemon that tailwind pit us out So that's fine. And we've got two more two more turns trick room. Yeah, I think If my math is correct Who knows it is Rayquaza? Okay, I don't mind this at all because we've got Sylvan in the back and We're running scarfed Sylvan. So that's so good for us And I'll try and get the trip the hypnosis off into the Rayquaza And I'm just gonna photon guys are the aerodactyl if it stays asleep. We get the KO there Which is super nice? If the Rayquaza doesn't protect though And it's it's definitely going to nap time So let's see if we can get this going Good if we can get a win today. I'm not gonna hold out just yet I feel like we were in so many good positions last week with team and then it just fell apart at the last minute And then we're like, how did we lose that? We were so we saw far ahead and then everything just flipped on its head So I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. Just yet. We want to take one step at a time with stuff like this So Yeah, I don't want to don't want to jump the gun So we're gonna make it evolve. I guess the guard chomps the one thing that's a little bit awkward to deal with So we do need to keep speed control if we can Okay, there's extreme speed coming out it is into Chameco There's a lot of damage. It is life orb ray, but we do get the hypnosis onto it We're not gonna see a protect this time come out from the aerodactyl So we should be able to pick up the knockout there with the photon geyser and our trick room if it does end this turn Then we're in a great position to get another trick room up because the Requires us definitely. Yeah, the request is definitely gonna have a turn of sleep now the guard chomp comes in and It is asleep. So even if it wakes up it probably wants to lock into earthquake And but it does mean that we probably are gonna get a trick room up once more. So Chameco, I mean just absolutely Unbelievable work this game and we will go for a photon geyser into the Rick was the Rick Yeah, that's the one thing I really want to get rid of like life orbits. We've got no intimidate in the team. So Being able to just remove that is gonna be be quite nice because the guard chomps I feel is a lot more manageable both Pokemon sleeping on my punish side of the field. So that's fine And like I say now we get the trick room up We're gonna be able to kind of probably lock this one up pretty easy. We do see the trick room set up here And the Rayquaza now The only thing is yeah, we need to get we need to concentrate down on this ray because If Sylvan comes in it is scarf, but it will be slower than the guard chomp because a guard chomp is scarfed So I'm gonna try and target down the ray though the rate could wake up now and go for a protect But my opponent just forfeit. So we are off to a victory for our first one this week Which is amazing news for us guys. So record right now wins one losses zero Here we go. Can we carry it on this week Chameco?  Have we found a hidden gem in Chameco? Who knows maybe we'll see it is one game. So we can't get too carried away with ourselves. All right music music music man Let's go with elite four Why not and hopefully like I was saying before it doesn't take too long to find the next opponent We'll get into the next one, but I can tell you more about the beach story. So yes, we took Thea down She's like six weeks six weeks old now, which is crazy to think six weeks ago was when she was born Um, but yeah things are going really well. She's growing. I'll have to get her on I will have to get her on and bring her on for an episode I'm probably more likely to do it for a stream But I will try and get her on for at least one of these videos And she can help me button mash for one episode. How cute would that be? Um So yeah, so yeah things have gone well I'm actually catching up on sleep now, which is good. So hopefully stream schedule will be able to do that I'll be able to get caught up on all of the different bits and bobs that I've got on the pipeline and get the That content out and things feeling a bit more normal now at home Um after starting a new job and then having Thea and just adjusting to all that It's been pretty crazy, but I'm pleased that we've kept content going on the channel I mean, that's the big thing for me. I did I was so worried about like just Dropping content on the channel because it's something that I've been doing for a long time and I know Priorities do shift, especially when you've got like a kid But at the same time, this is something that I do love you doing and I don't want to let slip So just even minimally just putting out content every day Monday to Friday is just something I really do want to try and keep doing and obviously when things do settle down We get back into that nice rhythm that we were before I'll be able to do other content I'll be able to do streaming and stuff like that and really get back into things Hopefully in time for sword and shield to come out as well because uh, that's not too long away is it but Here's me chatting away and we can't find an opponent So I'm gonna have to jump back in but I'll tell you what we'll do guys I'll cut right to it when we find an ex opponent. So we'll be right back And we've got an ex opponent of the episode and what better opponent to have With us today than a good friend Johnny hacks. This is incredible I don't think we've had Johnny on the series. So this is a pleasure Johnny. Good luck my friend We're gonna hop over to team preview and Hopefully this is a good one. I'm Johnny always has great teams. So this is going to be a very good match So let's get into it Okay, Johnny running a solid team of zonius groud on salamence a lowland persian smeagol and amungas So we've got the zonius groud on combination We know how strong that is zonius setting up that gm and see the groud on there Just protecting it from those steel types of threats so hard We've got the speed control from the salamence there It's gonna have tailwind Intimidate as well and then you've got that alone in persian which gives us a few issues You know, you've got to really kind of play around that because it's got fake out It's got the potting shot that can be a bit awkward And then the two support pokemon there you got the smeagol with the fast fake out as well Follow me redirection there and then the other redirection user with the amungas there So lots of support around that zonius. So that's the big key pokemon here that we need to try and get rid of And how are we going to do it? That's the big question Um, okay, let us go chameco because I think tailwind trick room is going to be quite useful for us I'm going to lead with sylvan here. Um, I think we will bring And a crossmer for sure and Table boo-loo Table boo-loo If you like this one it's going to be a little bit tough a little bit tough But can chameco do some work? Once again, let's see Johnny there All okayed out and that nice comma all armor gear whatever you want to call it very good We're gonna see lovely sylvan sylvan one of the best shiny pokemon as well in my opinion I don't know what you guys think but I always I always love sylvan. I think it's such a cool looking pokemon. Um, okay so Hmm groudon and What are we gonna see this chameco? There's some amungas too. Is it gonna protect? Uh, we can't really hit the groudon too hard with anything. Um, it could be eruption groudon as well Which could be a little bit awkward for us. Um, we And if we get the trick room up right now, it's not It's not ideal. So we could z move z move the amungas and um, hmm We're just not going to be able to do like we've got side shock on sylvan But without the specs, I don't think we're going to be able to pick up the knockout onto the amungas. Um I really want to keep sylvan around for later as well if I can I can help it um I might just keep keep it in and just and just hyper voice Just try and get some damage off sylvan shouldn't go down this turn But like just chipping that groudon might be useful chipping the amungas as well In case it is sash might be useful And the groudon going for a fire punch. Are we gonna take it? That's the question Yeah, chameco is a beast and there we go. We're gonna get the z move off and we're gonna get rid of that amungas We lose our speed control Which isn't ideal at all. I mean sylvan gets through this turn pretty unscathed. So that's that's nice Chameco, we're gonna get through this turn as well. So we're we're still up in numbers, but It's still gonna be really tough to kind of Wow, we actually don't take the amungas down and then procs a berry. Oh, chameco. You're so weak and there's a spoil I think it's done already. I think it's done already The amungas is too bulky. I would have I really would have thought I really would have thought that we would be able to take that. Um Okay, let's protect chameco and I guess we can try and get sylvan wake up and just hyper voice again. Um, we've got a guarantee turn of sleep here We could have maybe used this. So the amungas gonna withdraw now. Maybe seasonius. Yeah hit the field. Yep Come on, we need sylvan to wake up Hmm, let's see where the groudon goes though. Is it going precipice blades or is it going fire punch? It probably targets down the sylvan just to be safe. I think Yeah, oh, we could have went for a trick room there Wow sylvan going down Down and down. Uh, okay. Necrosma. Let's bring this bad boy in. I don't think we've really got the resources to kind of Do do things now. I really just don't I don't think we're gonna get a trick room up um And we can go for a calm mind with necrosma But we're gonna see a geomancy probably a fire punch into the chameco It's gonna be quite easy for for johnny now to close this one up. I feel Oh, we're just going we're just gonna see dazzling gleam. We're not even gonna see the The geomancy here doesn't probably need to go for it to be honest fire punch coming out. Well, let's just proc a berry Hopefully it will Yeah, okay, and we'll get a calm mind up, which I don't know Mike I don't think it puts us really in any better position, especially with tapu budu cover there Who's not really gonna want to take a fire punch? um But you never know you never know what we can do if for some Some way we can get a wood hammer onto The zonius if we can take a fire punch From the ground on It's a big ask mind It's a big big big old ask and then we can get a wood hammer which should be enough to get the zonius Uh earth power Now should be enough plus one to get the ground on So we'll see we'll see Um, but it's about bulu if it can live because you've got to hope that the zonius goes for Moonblast maybe into the necrosma And then a fire punch into the bulu from the ground on so bulu can survive get the wood hammer into the zonius Which might be enough to pick up the knockout. Maybe you know, we're not gonna see that though Uh fire punch where you going this time? Oh into the necrosma again. Oh, we don't we don't take it No, no, it's done. I think it was pretty much over after the moonga survival If we get the moongas, I think the game's a little bit different going forward That's born to the sylvan didn't help but at the same time. I just think Maybe Maybe there was just we just had a little bit too much and this is a perfect game like looking back now This is a perfect game where we should have brought We should have brought ardukuno and tried the the the gimmicky sets. We should have tried the gimmicky set Oh, and johnny johnny is just too nice sending me a message already saying didn't know what to do But it's fine johnny. You've got a solid lovely team there There's no need to apologize as I say it's a pleasure having you on the channel Very good game my friend in a lovely way for us to end up today Now we're gonna be on a record of one win one loss. We've got some things to think about going forward But I'm gonna take this all as a positive way to kick off this week. Um, you know Looking at this team We need to refigure out how we're gonna lead and position ourselves against at least we know now chameco Where there's a move even after a hyper voice chip from sylvan is not enough to pick up the moongas So we can't go down that route. So we've got to look at different options there get around it Like I say, I think the ardukuno might have been a nice option there Not so much to try the memes, but you know, we could have went tailwind instead of the trick room I am because we will be faster than the ground on the most cases unless it's like timid max And even then we've still got the sash to kind of rely on a little bit there So I think we've got different options and I think that's what we need to look at But as I say it's a success. I'm really excited to get into the rest of the week We're gonna be sticking with this team tomorrow. Obviously, we can't activate our buttons until wednesday So good little way to go so we can activate any of those but we might bring in one of the another legend And maybe activate that legend maker, but let me know what you guys which button you'd like to see Would you like to see the legend maker button activated on wednesday the switch up or just the random switch up activated to mix things up Or would you like to see the team just continue? Either way, anyway, whatever you like we will do guys, but thank you so much for tuning Have a great rest of your day and I will catch you for the next one tomorrow. So until then take care and bye. Bye


I begin with the third lecture called laws of convection. In a way, this is the most fundamental lecture along with the next one, because I will first be stating the fundamental laws that govern our subject of convective heat and mass transfer, but then go on essentially to enunciate the laws governing fluid motion, which are then also the tractable forms of governing equations are also called Navier-Stokes equation. So, I will end with complete derivation of the Navier-Stokes equation. In a way, this lecture is very very fundamental, because fluid motion is so very important in convective heat transfer. So, what are the fundamental laws? The first is the law of conservation of mass, which is responsible for transport of mass. This Newton's second law of motion force is equal to mass into acceleration is essentially responsible for transport of momentum and the first law of thermodynamics is really responsible for transport of energy. The first two laws namely the law of conservation of mass and Newton's second law of motion define fluid motion completely and the third one defines the transport of energy. So, today I am going to consider only the first two laws that define fluid motion completely by applying these laws to infinity similarly small control volume located in a moving fluid. The first question that arises is that how should we look at fluid and its motion? The fluid itself is viewed in two ways. The first one is called the particle approach and the second one is the called the continuum approach. In the particle approach, the fluid is assumed to consist of particles, molecules, atoms and the laws are applied to study motion of each particle. The fluid motion that we see and feel is then described by statistically average motion of a group of particles, very, very important. In this approach, the motion of each particle is studied, but the fluid motion that we speak of is described by statistically average motion of a group of particles. For most engineering applications and also environmental applications, this approach is too cumbersome simply because the significant dimensions of our flow say radius of a pipe could be anywhere from say 5 millimeters to anything up to 2 meters diameter is conceivable or a boundary layer thickness. So, these are the significant dimensions of the flow and these tend to be considerably bigger than the mean free path length between molecules, which means in a given pipe there will simply billions and billions and trillions of particles to track even in a simple 1 centimeter diameter pipe. To appreciate this, just consider something that you already know. For example, the Avogadro's number specifies that at normal temperature of 25 degree centigrade and pressure of 1 atmosphere, a gas will contain 6 into 10 raise to 26 molecules per kilo mole. So, for example, air, which has a molecular weight of say about 29 and density of about 1, it can easily be deduced that there will be 2 into 10 raise to 16 molecules per millimeter cube. You can very well imagine therefore that the mean free path length between molecules must be very very small and there will be simply far too many molecules to track even in a simple case of a flow in 1 centimeter diameter pipe. Continuum approach was devised essentially to overcome this difficulty. In this approach, we assume that the statistical averaging is already performed and we consider elements of fluids to which fundamental laws are applied. The elements of fluid are also sometimes called control volumes and these control volumes although infinitesimally small actually contain large number of particles. They are simply very very tiny very very tiny or infinitesimally small and since we already assumed that the fluid is viewed such that averaging has been taken place, obviously some information is always lost in any averaging and therefore that information must be recovered and it is this information recovery is done by invoking some additional auxiliary laws along with the fundamental laws and the three fundamental the three auxiliary laws that we that are normally invoked are firstly the stokes stress and rate of strain law which defines the fluid viscosity mu. The Fourier's law of heat conduction which is familiar to you defines the thermal conductivity k and Fick's law of mass diffusion which defines the mass diffusivity and you will recall in my first lecture I said all these are molecular phenomena. Essentially, they are molecular simply because they represent the lost information as a result of averaging at the molecular levels. The transfer properties mu k and diffusivity are typically determined from experiments although theories such as kinetic theory of gases etcetera are available to be able to determine their magnitudes. As we move towards applications involving very small dimensions called micro scale heat transfer or nano scale heat transfer a quantity called Knudsen number is a very important one. Knudsen number is simply the ratio of mean free path length between molecules divided by the characteristic flow dimension l small l divided by capital L and we say that the continuum approach is valid and is also experimentally verified when Knudsen number is less than 10 raise to minus 4. Today, we have micro channels whose dimensions could be of the order of microns or 10th or 100th of microns and clearly the dimension l itself would be comparable to the mean free path length l and therefore in such a case the particle approach would become necessary. In this course of course, we are always going to assume continuum approach by saying that we would be considering situations in which capital L is much greater than the mean free path length. I said in the continuum approach the fundamental laws are applied to a fluid element we call control volume. So, let us just define the control volume. The control volume is a region in space across the boundaries of which matter energy and momentum may flow and it is a region within which source or sink of the same quantities may prevail further it is a region on which external forces may act. So, imagine a fluid inside a flowing flow very tiny fluid element then we are saying that in this fluid element energy will flow in and flow out mass will flow in flow out momentum will flow in and flow out and it is an element on which external forces may act. In general, a C v can be large or infinitesimally small however consistent with the idea of a differential in a continuum and infinitesimally small C v is considered. Remember the idea of continuum is also invoked in mathematics. In fact, when we define a derivative we say difference between difference in the values of two variables or value of a variable at two distinct points is written as d y by d x when d x goes to 0. In other words when d x becomes very very small or the two points are brought very very close to each other a derivative is defined. The notion here is very similar. We want to represent our laws in terms of differential equations and so in order to be consistent with the idea of a differential in a continuum we shall consider infinitesimally small control volume. The C v is located within the moving fluid again there are two approaches first of them is called the Lagrangian approach and the second one is called the Eulerian approach. In the Lagrangian approach the C v is considered to be moving with the fluid as a whole. In the Eulerian approach on the other hand if I have a moving fluid the element that I consider is fixed in space. In a way the material of the element is changing continuously because some fluid is coming in and going out and the fluid element contains different materials at different times but the location of the element is fixed in space. In the Lagrangian approach on the other hand the material of the element does not change but the element itself moves with the fluid. In the Eulerian approach the C v is assumed to be fixed in space and the fluid is assumed to flow through and past the C v. When is Lagrangian approach invoked? It is invoked in only study of certain types of unsteady flows such as free surface waves for example but this is not something of interest to us and therefore we shall be preferring Eulerian approach to application of fundamental laws to control volumes. There is also one more advantage when we consider Eulerian approach. As I said in the Eulerian approach the fluid element is fixed in space although located inside the moving fluid it is fixed in space. Now recall of course that whenever we do experimental measurements using a pitot tube or hot wire for velocity or laser Doppler anometer and so on so forth they are all fixed instruments in space and the fluid moves past them and the fluid moves past them. As a result there is a great advantage in the sense that what is measured by the instruments can now be compared directly with the solution of the differential equations that the Eulerian approach defines and as a result we shall always prefer throughout this course to look at the fluid as a continuum and apply fundamental laws to the control volume within the Eulerian approach. Now there is still one more matter to be settled. The fundamental laws by themselves are pretty useless in many ways. Firstly the fundamental laws apply only to total flows of mass momentum energy. They define total flows both in magnitude as well as in direction. So there are two properties involved magnitude of the total flow and the direction of the total flow. To the extent direction is involved all these flows are vectors like this say total vector. Now the trouble is that when the fluid flows through a duct or flows over a turbine blade or something like that at every point in the flow I simply do not know the direction of the total vector a priori. I am sure you are able to imagine this for the in the entrance region of a duct where the boundary layers grow close to the wall the direction of the flow will be pointing towards the axis of the tube inside the boundary layer. But as I move away from the wall it will be more or less aligned to the and parallel to the axis of the flow and in fact at the axis symmetry the flow will be absolutely parallel to the axis of symmetry. But I simply do not know a priori the direction that the total vector will make with the fixed coordinate system x, y, z. Now do I know its magnitude? So what is done then that in the general problem of convection since we do not know magnitude and direction a priori we settle the matter in this way. We say the problem of ignorance of direction is circumvented by resolving the total vector in three directions x 1, x 2 and x 3 as I have shown here. So the total velocity vector u would be resolved in terms of velocity vector u 1 in the direction x 1, u 2 in the direction x 2 and u 3 in the direction x 3. Same thing would apply to forces, same thing would apply to all other fluxes like heat flux and mesh flux. So we shall always resolve all the vector quantities in three directions that define the space. Of course we have increased our work but at least we have made the problem tractable in the sense that now we need to be worry only about how to determine their magnitudes in three directions so that the total vector could always be constructed knowing the three vector sub vectors in three different directions. Let us consider the very first law of conservation of mass and here is a control volume. The verbal statement of the law is very simple. It says the rate of accumulation of mass within a control volume would equal the rate of mass in minus rate of mass out. Very simple to understand there is no difficulty at all. So how do we represent mathematically the accumulation of mass, the rate of accumulation of mass m dot ac? Remember the mass of the element would be simply rho m multiplied by its volume, rho m is the bulk fluid or mixture density multiplied by the volume which is delta x 1 delta x 2 delta x 3 divided by dt. So partial d by dt rho m delta v would be the rate of accumulation. Well at surface x equal to x 1 the mass rate of mass flow in will be rho m into u 1 which is the mass flux multiplied by the area delta a 1 which is delta x 2 multiplied by delta x 3. So that is what I have written here.  Incidentally notice that the directions of x 1 x 2 x 3 satisfy the right hand screw rule which means if I start with x 1 and move towards x 2 a right hand screw would make take me forward in x 3 direction. So that is what is implied here if I turn x 1 to x 2 I will move in x 3 direction. This is very very important to remember in all our subsequent slides that the coordinate directions are so chosen that they obey the right hand screw rule in cyclic manner. So having written out the replace the verbal statement by in its mathematical form we divide each term here by volume delta v which is nothing but delta x 1 delta x 2 and delta x 3 and remember that delta a 1 is delta x 2 delta x 3 delta a 2 is equal to delta x 1 delta x 3 and delta a 3 is delta x 2 delta x 1. Then the law of conservation of mass would read something like this rho m u 1 x 1 which is the mass flux in minus rho m u 1 x 1 x 1 mass flux out from in the x 1 direction divided by delta x 1 similarly in y direction and similarly in z direction and if I now let each of these delta x 1 delta x 2 delta x 3 go to 0 that means making the control volume extremely small or infinitesimally small and then each of these expressions would simply get converted to a partial derivative. This expression for example would be minus d rho m u 1 by dx 1 minus d rho m u 2 by dx 2 minus d rho m u 3 by dx 3 which I have transformed on the left hand side to read is false.  It is also called a conservative form of equation simply because this is how it is derived. It has conserved all the fluxes in all directions and non conservative form can be derived by mathematical manipulation. For example, I can treat this as differentiation of a product then you will see this will become u 1 d rho m by dx 1 and u 1 d rho m by dx 1 which I have written sorry rho m d u 1 by dx 1 which is written here on the right hand side.  This way of writing is called the non conservative form of writing the law of conservation of mass and you will readily recognize that this left hand side is nothing but what we call the total derivative d rho m by dt equal to minus rho m and what is this is simply divergence of velocity vector v and therefore, written as del dot v. So, d rho m by dt equal to minus rho m del dot v is a non conservative form of the law of conservation of mass. I now turn to the second law of motion which as I said is concerned with the transport of momentum the statement goes something like this for a given direction x 1, x 2 or x 3 the rate of accumulation of momentum equals rate of momentum in minus rate of momentum out plus some of the forces acting on the c v in the same direction. Remember Newton's second law of motion says that the force equal to mass into acceleration, but implies that the force and acceleration are in the same direction. What are the forces that act on a control volume firstly there are shearing stresses shearing forces tau 2 1 is a shearing force acting in x 1 direction and likewise tau 2 1 would be at x 2 equal to constant surface would act in this direction tau 3 1 likewise acts at x 3 plus delta x 3 surface and tau 3 1 also acts in the other direction. The difference in this traces provide the shear of the control model sigma is the normal stress it is tensile and therefore, points outwards from all surfaces sigma 1 here sigma 2 here and sigma 3 on the back and likewise sigma 1 here sigma 3 here and sigma 2 there at the other surfaces. In addition there could well be body forces due to buoyancy or coriolis force or a centrifugal force or an electromagnetic force a fluid can experience variety of forces body forces in particular. So, these are all the forces, but the important thing is we can consider the Newton's law of motion in one direction at a time. So, therefore, since there are three direction we shall have three equations as I mentioned here. Let us write each term in mathematical form momentum accumulation well simply what is the mass of the control volume is rho m into delta v and since I am considering direction 1 I must multiply that by u 1 to get mass into velocities momentum and the rate of change of that is the accumulation. So, d by d t of rho m delta v u 1 is the accumulation of momentum what about momentum in rate of momentum in would be rho m u 1 into delta a 1 is the mass coming in from surface x 1 x 2 constant that must be multiplied by velocity u 1 to get momentum in x direction. There is also mass coming in from x 2 equal to constant surface that also must be multiplied by velocity u 1 to get momentum in direction 1 and likewise there is also coming mass is coming from the back at x 3 equal to constant surface which must also contribute to momentum in direction 1.  So, these are the way mass momentum in and momentum out terms what about the forces remember as I said sigmas are tensile forces sigma 1 acts on the area delta a 1 sigma 2 acts on the area delta a 2 and sigma 3 acts on delta a. So, the first term is in direction x 1 positive direction I shall have minus sigma 1 at x 1 minus sigma x 1 at delta x 1 multiplied by delta a 1 this would be the force in the positive direction 1 likewise tau 2 1 at x 2 plus delta x 2 surface is acting in positive direction where the tau 2 1 at x 2 surface is acting in the negative direction and therefore, I have tau 2 1 x 2 plus delta x 2 minus tau 2 1 x at x 2 multiplied by delta a 2 and likewise in the surfaces in the z direction tau 3 1 at x 3 plus delta x 3 minus tau 3 1 at x 3 multiplied by delta x 3 plus there if there is a body force b 1 in extend direction which acts on the control volume as a whole is written as rho m into delta v which is the mass of the control volume multiplied by b 1 meaning thereby that b 1 has units of Newton's per kilogram and therefore, it has been multiplied by rho m into delta v stresses on the other hand have units of Newton's per meter square and therefore, are multiplied by area a 1 a 2. So, in other words the units of each term here is simply Newton's the force.  This would be the momentum equation in direction x 1. The left hand side as you will readily appreciate is the net rate of change of momentum in x 1 direction and the right hand side is the net forces in x 1 direction by fluid stresses and body forces. Now, clearly an exercise similar to this can be carried out in direction 2 and direction 3. I leave that as an exercise for you it is not very difficult at all. You will notice if you write down 3 equations together then they can be represented in a tensor by tensor notation. So, for example, law of conservation of mass can be written as d rho m by d t d rho m u j by d x j equal to 0 where j goes from 1 2 3 in direction in cyclic order.  It equals 0 when i is not equal to j and equals 1 when i is equal to j. So, these terms will survive only when i is equal to j d by d x j tau j i 1 minus delta i j i these terms will survive only when i is not equal to j plus rho m v i and in tensor notation we write it as in this fashion for i equal to 1 2 3 and j equal to 1 2 3 cyclic, but now we have a little closure problems. As you can see these represent three equations these represents one. So, the fluid motion has been described by four equations, but we have many more unknowns. First of all we have three velocity components which are not known in fact that is what we wish to determine sigma i 3 tensile stresses which we do not know and six shear stresses tau i j or tau j i. So, we have essentially 6 plus 3 9 and plus 12 unknowns and only four equations. So, essentially this is a not a solvable set. In the early days say around 1960 Euler simply assumed that the tensile stresses and the tau j i the shear stresses would be extremely small and simply ignored them that was the situation is 1960. Around 1825 a man called Navier found that now those terms cannot be neglected this the fluid is indeed stressed as it flows through the tube through when it flows and therefore fluid stresses could be as big as the body forces that it experiences and therefore decided to retain them which gave rise to these nine unknown stresses. But the way forward was found by Stokes in England and he said that the shear stresses would be related to velocity gradients or the rates of strain through viscosity tau i j is equal to mu equal to d u i d x j plus d u j d x i. Remember this is simply a definition or a model of a stress related to rate of strain introducing an entirely new quantity mu into our set of equations. From the form of the stress strain law you can readily appreciate that tau i j will indeed be equal to tau j i because when you change the indices the expression does not change when i is not equal to j and this is precisely what we call complementary stresses. So, the tau 2 1 is a stress in that direction the stress complementary to that is tau 1 2 acting on another phase. Likewise tau 2 1 at x 2 has a complementary stress tau 1 2 which acts on x 1 surface. So, the 6 stresses which were unknown are now reduced to 3 unknowns due to complementarity and they are now reduced to the velocity components if you know the value of viscosity.  We had 4 equations and 12 unknowns but sigma i and tau i j are now replaced by velocity gradient and pressure. So, now we have 4 equations and 4 unknowns 3 velocity components u i and pressure p and also one more additional constant called fluid viscosity mu. Now, this viscosity was simply a constant of proportionality between stress and strain. It is our great fortune that viscosity has turned out to be the property of a fluid rather than the flow. Imagine if I had if I had if the stress and strain were connected in such a way that viscosity of water a when it flows in a circular tube is different from when it flows in a square section tube we would have a much bigger problem on our hand. We are very lucky it is an accident of history if you like our accident of nature if you like that viscosity has turned out to be a property of the fluid and not surprisingly because it is essentially trying to capture the information loss during statistical averaging of molecular motions. So, we must supply to the equations now the value of viscosity.  So, these equations written in this form are known as Navier stokes equations. Navier was a French scientist engineer and Stokes was a English scientist engineer both are credited with formulating these set of equations by including the stress terms which were ignored by Euler in 1760. When of course, these three equations are ignored essentially we are saying viscosity is assumed to be 0 and therefore, when these terms are 0 we say the momentum equations applied to inviscid fluid, inviscid meaning fluid having zero viscosity or really an ideal fluid. Such an ideal fluid can explain quite a few things in fluid mechanics, but not others principally it cannot explain the drag offered by a body when fluid flows past it and as I said this drag is of paramount importance to a convective heat transfer engineer because he must design his surfaces such that the drag is reduced or the pressure drop caused by the drag is reduced and therefore, these terms are very important to a convective heat transfer heat and mass transfer analyst. These equations then describe the fluid motion completely. Incidentally, I may mention that when mu happens to be an absolute constant which is only a property of the fluid then we say the fluid is Newtonian because stress and rate of strain are then linearly related but there are fluids like blood or polymers and so on and so forth in which the viscosity or the magnitude of viscosity itself depends on the rate of strain and sometimes in the manner in which the fluid was strain through time and therefore, viscosity also happens to be function of time, function of the flow in which the fluid is situated and so on and so forth. So, my remarks about viscosity apply only to Newtonian fluids such as air and water at pressures that we are interested, pressures and temperatures in which we are interested in mechanical engineering. We are leaving out exceptional applications like blood flows and other thing where the flows are non-Newtonian. In the next class I will take up the fundamental law of energy which is the first law of thermodynamics.