Hey guys, it's Nate, AKA The Foot Accountant. Welcome back to the channel. We are sporting our Adidas Orange today as the numbers of promo is here inside of FIFA 22. The Adidas Don't Stop Till You're 99, brand new promo is released today inside of FIFA 22. I wanna talk about this loading screen, how I think it could be a crazy day for the market, and also what other content that I expect, because this is a never seen before promo inside of FIFA, right, we talked about it yesterday, EA branded promo with another company. It's very interesting, right? There's a lot of names being thrown around for who could be in this promo team.  There's at least a little bit of uncertainty as it seems right now. So I wanna talk about that loading screen and how I think with the preview packs, are they gonna drop preview packs on a promo Friday? That's the big question I have for today. And that would be basically the number one thing that could change the market like crazy today is if we do get preview packs, because we've been getting them a lot this past week, and I'm curious to see if that continues with this promo. So let's take a look at the loading screen and get right into it, because we don't have any hints. As of right now, there are no hints about who is gonna be in this promo from the loading screens that EA have put out. They did show us yesterday that these cards are gonna be, again, live updating or progressing cards. So the guys are gonna get their 99 stats right away, but just pause for a second and realize that this is the third. We have been inside of FIFA 22 for almost two months, about a month and a half, and this is the third promo with upgrading or live cards of some aspect already in this game. That's crazy. That's definitely something we've never seen before, but this is how these cards are gonna upgrade, right? Today on Friday will be upgrade number one. Basically, when the promo launches, anybody who's in the team, that will count as upgrade number one. Then some way down the line, upgrades number two and number three will be happening.  So let's say, again, it's 99 passing on a copa card, right? They would get plus five passing and plus one everywhere else. And then upgrade number three, that copa stat that or copa predator or the X, the pace passing or dribbling stat would go all the way to 99, and the others would get a plus one. Now, also this shows plus one on the card. I don't know if it's gonna be like an inform upgrade or a plus one, like legit plus one. So we'll have to figure that out, of course. But the biggest thing with today is, it depends on when these upgrades happen, right? Whenever upgrade number two and upgrade number three are gonna be released, some people are talking about that this might be in January and upgrade number three might be in March. That's a long time. I know it doesn't seem like a long time, but there's gonna be a lot of promo cards released between now and then. So hopefully that these upgrades two and three, we hope that they're not too far spread apart. But again, obviously today we're gonna be looking at upgrade one with a campaign launch and hopefully they juice some of the cards up that will be in the team today. Now, I wanna talk about the team a little bit. We don't really have many leaks. There's only a couple names that have been thrown around, but there's a couple things from actually commercials and Instagram posts that have been shown in the past couple months that we maybe would have missed. This was an official advertisement from Adidas. And if you see, it's about the whole don't stop to your 99 promotion on this commercial and you see some of the footballers that are in here. This might give us some hints to who was in this promo today, right? Delhi Ali, as you can see right here is in-game player inside of FIFA 22. It's hard to make out, but that is definitely Delhi Ali. We keep going a little bit in this and we see 99 dribbling for Delhi Ali, right? Next player up, Ferran Torres. You see him kicking the ball around. You see Jude Bellingham, right? That's been a name that's been thrown around a lot. Jude Bellingham. Chiro Omobile is another one. Joao Felix, that is the one leak. Supposedly right now, Joao Felix is gonna be in this team. As you keep going through here, you see a few more. It shows like the passing, of course. I think it shows a 99 shooting as well or a 99 pace. I think that's even Joao Felix right there. If you slow the video down right there, it looks like Joao Felix. And then as you get here to the end, I think there's one more player that you see. Let me see if I can show you. It is right here, it's right towards the end. Timo Werner, right there, that's Timo Werner. I'm pretty sure in a Germany shirt. So I'm curious to see which of these players get in that are from this video of all the Adidas athletes. There's tons of names, right? And we don't have a ton of leaks right now, but we have that video in some of these Instagram posts. Georena, I guess obviously as we talked about too, Georena is confirmed to be in EA posted that one. But like Paul Pogba made an Instagram post, Jude Bellingham made a post, and Mobile made a post. So all of these cards could be coming out in the next, either if there's gonna be a team one or a team two. A couple more, Bernardo Silva is involved here in Golucante and then Joao Felix. So who knows, right? Who knows, there's a ton of Adidas athletes, right? There are tons of Adidas athletes, and that's where the uncertainty comes in today. Now I wouldn't be surprised, I would not be surprised if there are more leaks coming out today on Friday as I'm putting this video out. And as you're looking on Twitter and stuff like that, there's probably gonna be some names released of players that are gonna be getting into this promo, but at least right now, that is not the case. But I wanna talk about the cards again that are gonna be in packs today, probably 11, right? It's a normal promo team of 11 cards, is what we usually see. But that's the thing, is this promo gonna be any little bit different since it is a sponsored promo by Adidas? Are they gonna put more cards in packs? Is it gonna be a two week promo or just a one week promo? I think since it's a brand new promo today, there's gonna be a lot of uncertainty and I think that's gonna cause a few different things on the market. The first thing we're uncertain about is preview packs because we've had a 50K preview pack, the 81 to 86, and then yesterday on Thursday, they randomly dropped a 25K preview pack into the store. That was like unheard of before this last week, we have had no other preview packs besides the 7.5K in this game and now we have had three brand new different types of preview packs that have destroyed the market, not destroyed, 50K packs destroyed the market, but they've affected the market each and every day and now people are getting used to having this in here and a lot of people are panic selling their cards before 6PM UK every day. I think that's gonna be the same today, but one thing with these brand new cards, if they release these Adidas items today and depending really the supply on these cards, it really depends on the packs that are in the store. I know a lot of people have saved rewards and in week one of a promo team, there's always a lot of saved packs. So like marquee matchups, there's brand new league SBCs that are out and people might be saving some of those packs, which a few of them are tradable. Of course, division rivals reward, sorry, food champions rewards. The finals, people are gonna be playing on Friday, getting those rewards as well. So I'm really curious to see what EA put inside of the promo pack section today. Could we see 100K packs for the first time this year? Could we see 50K preview packs, 25K preview packs? Again, if you look at the pack probabilities, oh, I guess I can't look right now because it's being updated. But I believe like out of a 50K pack, it was like a seven or 8% chance for a rule breaker. Keep that in mind today with these Adidas cards to see how rare they are on this market. And really, I think that a lot of the game in the market side of things today, it really depends upon what packs that they put in the store. Cause if they put 100K packs, that's gonna bring a lot of supply to the market. That's gonna hurt a lot of your top tier cards. Like, you know, even an Mbappe or a card like this, there's gonna be a lot of supply today regardless. But the amount, like the drastic, how drastic that supply is, depends on if there's preview packs. If there's preview packs, then the brand new promo cards are gonna get so cheap unless their pack weight is really low. Because again, those preview packs just bring so much extra supply to the market. Then if they're not, if it's just 50K regular packs and maybe 25Ks, then it might not be as crazy. But I'm really wondering if EA's gonna continue that preview pack trend this week and I would be, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some today. I really wouldn't. And I think with people knowing that, I think you're gonna see some panic selling. That's the other thing I wanna talk about is I really do think that you are gonna see some people selling cards off this morning into, as we get closer to the content drop, you might see a few cards rise up. Because usually early on Fridays, you see people go out and they're competing in the weekend league. So sometimes they wake up on Fridays and cards actually rise up a little bit. But one thing I would expect to see are some of your high tier, elite tier cards, maybe even some of these rule breakers. And just across the whole entire market, honestly, I would expect to see some panic selling today. Icons out of packs, cards like road to the knockouts, stuff like that. I would expect to see some panic selling today because there's a lot of unknown. Again, as I mentioned with this promo, there's a lot of unknowns with the upgrades, what players are gonna put in. There's a lot of names being thrown around, big names. So with that uncertainty, and since this is a brand new promo, I think you will see a decent amount of panic selling today. Now a lot of the market has actually gone up. If you bought cards around rewards, these guys have really flown. A lot of the golds, right? I bought Manes at 127. He's, you know, 140s. Son went from 80K to 93. Marquinhos went from low 80s up to the mid to high 90s. So you see a lot of prices right now that are up. And again, I think you're gonna see prices stay higher than what they were Wednesday night. The only thing that would make prices go lower than what they were on Wednesday would be, again, like an insane amount of supply. Again, just to give you a little bit of a glimpse of what has gone on, like this Llorente on Thursday after awards was 40,000 coins, or right before rewards. He was 40K. He's risen up to almost 48, 49,000 coins. And if you take a look at a lot of these gold meddas, it's the same thing. So a lot of people went out and bought teams at the Division Rivals Rewards period yesterday because there was a lot of selling ahead of time. These cards jumped up a lot. So I'm curious to see if, I don't think you're gonna see Varan at like 150K again or below 150K unless we get like 100K packs or some sort of huge preview pack in the store, right? I wouldn't expect to see crazy, crazy insane drop-offs on the gold cards unless you see that. But with, again, the players that are being tossed around, like, again, the names like Felix, Diogo Jota, Di Maria, Ter Stegen, I think people have mentioned his name. There's a lot of big-name players that are in this promo that could have some pretty cracked cards. I'm curious to see which ones get into the side, which ones get into this team and where it affects the market. And I think that uncertainty is gonna cause some people to sell cards today. So that would be one thing that I would watch out for, especially if you're looking at out-of-packs informs and icons. Icons and those out-of-packs informs are probably gonna be some of your safest bets. Today, heroes might do pretty well, depending on the card and depending on what kind of new items come out as a part of the promo that people might want to link up together. So I would keep an eye on a lot of that stuff. Like, it's specifically some of your road to the knockouts, if somebody like a Paul Pogba were to get in, that might bring some hype a little bit for Man United fans in this game to maybe go out and try Fred. Or if there's another, like if Lucas Mora were to get a card, there's a couple rumors that Lucas Mora might be in as an Adidas athlete, then you might see a card like this Fred jump up in price. So there's that kind of thing that could happen today, but there's also the opposite. Let's say supposedly there's the name that Sergio Reguillon could potentially be getting in. So another Prem right back, you might see this Andrew Robertson road to knockouts card who right now is actually up in price, 225,000 coins. You might see him drop. So that's the kind of stuff you would watch out for today, but I would expect to see panic selling, of course, per usual. And if the promo is really not that good, like we saw last week with Rule Breakers team too, I think not too many people were really excited about the cards that were getting released. So last Friday was an incredible day to make profit on icons and other out of pack specials like Rule Breakers from team one move to decent amount, icons that were from previous team with weeks, road to the knockouts. There was a lot of profit to be made last week on those cards, because instead of going and buying the new Rule Breakers, people went back to other cards on the game because the new cards that came out just weren't that good. So that'll be something that we have to look at today. As we see the new cards come out, we'll kind of be deciding that in real time, of course, as we start to see the promo team released and all sorts of stuff like that. Now content-wise, again, since it's a, you know, again, a brand new promo, you would expect that we would have some sort of SBC player, and then also we would have some sort of objective player released today as well. Since the new season is out, they wouldn't have to release any of those objectives inside of the milestones tab since we are in season two. You know, this would be able to be released under the objectives tab. So I'm really curious to see, again, that's the biggest question for today. What's gonna change since this is a specific, like branded promo, and what is that gonna change? But we saw a ton of SBCs in the past week for Rule Breakers, right? Zaniolo, we've had like Verati, you know, Goosens has been, Parejo, there's been so many different players, the Marais, Flashback, there's been so many different player SBCs that have been released in the past week. I'm curious to see if it slows down for this week or if it continues into the weekend with these Adidas promos, numbers up promo players being released. Also, one thing I do wanna shout really fast is watch out for maybe some brand new packs. I don't know if they're gonna be in the SBC section or in the store. I think we looked at it on yesterday's video just for a second. It was like an 82 pace plus upgrade pack, an 82 dribbling plus upgrade pack and an 82 passing plus upgrade pack. I think that could be something they might release today as well. I don't know if that would again be an SBCs or if that would be in the store, but that would be something to watch out for today as well. So it's gonna be a crazy day just because of the fact of the unknown, right? There's not a lot that we know about this promo except from the Instagram post, the EA quote unquote leaks that you've seen. And some of these prices are still pretty low in this market from where it's been earlier in the week. I just looked at that mid-lam, 1.29. That's still really cheap for him. Now some of these icons have rebounded back up a little bit, you know, and there's people that are using cards right now as we talked about a nice little market rise after the rewards timeframe on yesterday, Thursday. So I'm curious to see if people are quick to Panic sale this morning or if people are kind of holding on to cards that they have and are just fine, keeping with those cards in their team and they're not super worried about the Adidas promo. So we will keep our eyes peeled for that, but it's another promo Friday, man. Hopefully we get some nice cards today. Hopefully it is a dope promo. And hopefully these upgrades aren't gonna be too far spaced apart. Hopefully it's like maybe you have to wait a month and a half or like maybe it's once per month, like boom, in December they're gonna upgrade them first and then in January they're gonna upgrade them again to get them their 99-Pay stat because that would be pretty hype. But we'll get the full story today as they release of course all the information that we need to know. It is a promo Friday and it's gonna be exciting regardless, leading up into the promo today. So if you enjoyed this video, make sure to give it a thumbs up, comment down below if you have any questions and subscribe if you are new. It has been Nathan Foot Accountant. I will catch you guys later. Peace.


Today, we're going to talk about the fascinating phenomenon called eating while driving Hey there and jaybrew22.com here with another low carb keto carnivore chat And I just want to let you know one thing when you're low carb or carnivore like a good low carb person and carnivore You never really feel the need to eat you don't get hunger pangs And you're not constantly craving things or hitting the pantry or the refrigerator for food It's true. It's 100% true. And when you keep your blood sugar low when you don't spike it with the high sugar high-carb foods Your hunger remains in control at all times you never really get hungry quickly your hunger is real like your body wants fuel It's not Asking for it because it got shocked by too much sugar But what I find fascinating is that when you see people driving and eating in their cars while they're on the road About 99% of the time what they're eating is very high in carbs a lot of times It's a burger or a sandwich or some french fries. It's really not any different than going to any commercial restaurant They're all carb dens as we said in a previous post. They're carb dens It's just everything has sugar and carbs and added bad Ingredients and especially when you're eating on the road. You can't really eat a steak while you're driving You have to need a fork and knife. I mean, I've even ordered burgers from Like I think once I did it at Burger King.  It's Your chicken wings imagine and you know That's why you don't see people eating pizza or or egg food young on the highway because you just can't do it when you can see that almost night all the food that people eat while driving are Super high carb. Maybe that can help you put together Another piece of the puzzle if you haven't already Eating is mindless for most people on the standard American diet They get hungry and they see these restaurants all at easy access points on the highway It basically it's one drive-thru window leads to the next drive-thru window and so on and so on and so on So my suggestion is that if you can try carnivore and really be Disciplined about it just for a couple months. You're gonna realize that wow all this quick pit stops You've made to get food was some sort of false body Signal that that you were getting it was just you just feeding a bad Addiction so get off the sugar and you'll never have to pull into a McDonald's or Burger King or whatever Restaurant it may be and that's it. You like the video. Please hit the bell and subscribe and I'll see you next time


You're going to get Paul Merrim because Paul Merriman is here and I'm excited about that He's a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds index investing and asset allocation he retired in 2012 from Merriman wealth management, which he founded in 1983 and Basically dedicated himself at that point just educating as many people as he possibly could for free About financial literacy. He's the author of eight books. He writes a regular column for a market watch and produces a multi-award winning weekly podcast sound investing and He's got over 30,000 subscribers to his twice monthly newsletter More recently. He has made a massive donation to boosting financial literacy at a university in the state. So thank you for that Paul and congratulations on on that. I Really am excited to be here. This this is on my bucket list. Some people want to go to other parts of the world when they retire I've been waiting to be here for 10 years. So I am I Yeah It's really it's a very exciting and and I am not here really to debate Rick Ferry I really am here to share some information that I think could help you bake more money With your portfolios nothing more than that. We are simply a nonprofit organization Feeding people Information that we hope will help them understand ways to combine different kinds of equity asset classes We are not investment advisors We are not financial planners We are teachers and that is all we are so as your teacher for a few minutes here today I want to make the case for small cap value as a factor in your portfolio and I want to make it based on information that I trust and I mentioned that because I ran into a gentleman last night a Friend from many many years ago He doesn't believe in small cap value. It was not Rick and I wanted to know why because there's so much great information He doesn't trust the path that the returns or the studies that have been done and we are in a faith based industry like it or not and Since that's the way it is if he doesn't trust those numbers then I understand that he shouldn't be using small cap value I use numbers that I'll share with you many more than many people like That make me trust it that come from people that I trust have developed the numbers from the past That I can recommend in a sense to other people. So let me talk about the truth of Small cap value the good the bad and the ugly and let me tell you the ugly is about as ugly as it can get and If a person's not ready for that ugliness then they shouldn't be in it And by the way that can be true of the stock market as well It all starts with this simple table that shows the long-term return for the four major u.s. equity asset classes I started making this table in 1995 and every year we update it and what it shows is that Large cap blend or the S&P 500 is compounded at about 9.8% Large cap value higher small cap blend higher small cap value it at 13.2 Now what's fascinating to me is a lot of people don't trust that 13.2 because if you trusted it wouldn't you want to have some of it if it didn't take your risk over the top Which of course is the big question so if we could believe That short-term bonds make less than intermediate bonds or long-term bonds or governments make less than corporate or Junk bonds make more than High-grade if we could believe all of those things. Why is this such a big leap of faith? So I'm going with what I'm seeing here, and I want some of that 13.2 I want it for my portfolio, and I've got a brand-new granddaughter. We gave her money last November when she was born half in S&P 500 half in small cap value for the rest of her life and If you want to know why half in S&P 500 I don't have time This is one of the greatest teaching tools I've ever seen Darrell Balls is our director of analytics Total volunteer as as is Chris Patterson who also works with me on this project What this shows is the rate of return. I know it's too small many of you don't have your computers But let me just tell you what it shows One year at a time since 1928 How did the S&P 500 do how does small cap value do how did large cap value do? How did All of the major asset classes do any color coded them for us So when you get home and you and you pull up the PDF on this You can look at these and you're going to be able to look at at 90 plus years of returns and See how wild and crazy it is. I mean there's nothing low risk about the S&P 500. It's at the top It's at the bottom. I mean it's it's all over the place. So is small cap value And so one of the things this does because the green is the S&P 500 by the way The green is supposed to give us the lowest rate of return Why because it's the highest quality of the four But Darrell surprised me. He's always got a surprise in a new table. He threw in the four fund strategy What would happen if you put those four? Asset classes including the s the small cap value if you put them together in one portfolio And you rebalance them every year. How much more risky would that be than the S&P 500? That is the pink and where is the pink the pink is in the middle Why is it in the middle because it picks up some of the value of all four, but it's never the best and it's never the worst so if you had a portfolio that was 25 percent small cap value that's a lot and 75% these other three assets and you were running around the middle all the time if the rate of return was better than the S&P 500 would it not be a better investment? Anybody vote for yes Not enough So then a couple years later he does another table, but this time and I'm just giving you the results So you'll see why I think this is so powerful Here what we have at the top. We have us small cap value 13.4% Over that whole period of time at the bottom. We have the S&P 500. I want you to notice something here Those two are normally at the top or at the bottom because the other three are combinations of these major asset classes What I love is the S&P 500 is 10.2 The two fund strategy that my granddaughter is going to to retire on is 12.2 Every half a percent would mean at least a couple million more dollars to her that difference And so I think that's a slam dunk because that too there's it doesn't end up at the top It doesn't end up at the bottom the two fund strategy That's what we're looking for less volatility better returns I call that Ben Felix. I think one of the finest educators. Could we agree on that? Ben Felix is the finest one of the finest educators. I'm talking about YouTube pieces on investing How many follow Ben out of curiosity? Yes And I just think he does a marvelous job. I called Ben. I said Ben. I've got a face Rick Give me something I could bring here that that Rick isn't prepared for And he gave me something that's just marvelous He gave me a study. He was working on that showed remember the lost decade from 2000 to 2009 That was a big surprise that kind of stuff doesn't happen very often. He went back to 1927. He looked at every hundred and 120 months Consequently to to call those all decades. He found out that there were a hundred and forty five lost decades for the S&P 500 Over that period of time So lost decades are not uncommon. And by the way, there's a lot of repeats there because you're going one month at a time To start a new period of time, but here's what I like Even if small cap value does not make you a lot richer We do at least know this that looking backward if we looked at the hundred and forty five lost decades for the S&P 500 How did small cap value do for those same periods? and it turns out in 78 74 percent a hundred and eight of the hundred and forty five small cap value made money and That if you looked at every one of those hundred and forty five decades that the S&P 500 on average lost two point three Small cap value made six point four five and I'm thinking I mean, I can't tell you that every little number that was ever added up and all of these studies is exactly right I'm a salesperson. We don't we don't focus on details, right? The bottom line is this tells me there is something there worth you. Oh, and I love this We have over 200 tables that kind of look like this So they aren't for today and I understand that But I wanted to give you something that where you'd have a piece of paper you could compare small cap value in the S&P 500 You could look at it one year at a time You could look at it all small cap all S&P 50 50 60 60 40 80 20 You got it every combination here all those years Going from 1970. I'm sorry. Yeah, 1970s through 20 22 And we can find out how did they each do and then we could even can pretend we invested in them And what here's what I like. I mean this really I think is is mind-bending By adding 10% on the far left. We have the S&P 500. You can't see it. It's 10.4 percent That was the compound rate of return the worst 12 months was a loss of 43.3 The worst drawdown was a loss of 51 if you were Adventuresome enough to put 10% into that portfolio instead of 10.4 You have gotten 10.8 instead of all well, of course now you're gonna have bigger losses. Yeah, six tenths of 1% in both cases Standard deviation is still the same In fact personally, I don't mind moving further over to the right and saying look this is not taking big risk This is not like cryptocurrency In fact what we're doing if you think about it if we add it to the S&P 500 We go from having 500 stocks to maybe maybe having 2,000 or 1,500 and Yeah, one by one. They aren't great quality, but not are all the S&P 500 companies Hey, are you keeping time by the way? I have no idea. I Want to look at it two ways because I'm not gonna get through all the slides By the way, if you do look at the PDF that we provided To the folks here it not only has these slides, but two nights ago I made a 45 minute presentation about this to AAII all the slides are in the PDF And there are some killer slides. I can't show you today Here we have The S&P 500 on one side Small cut value on the other same thing except we put money to work starting in 1970 a thousand dollars This is something your grandkids your kids need to know about And you and you put away monthly 83 dollars and 33 cents And then every year you upped that by three percent a year so that you were kind of replicating what inflation might have been And then what happened is you put it into the S&P 500 only that's the far left hand column And at the end of that period, I don't read well, but I think it's around Three plus million dollars Oh, I do read well, but not from this distance If I look at the small cap value, it's a holy moly. It looks like it looks like well well over 20 Yes, I can of course, I sleep with this understand But every time you add a half of a 10 small cap value you can see what happens to the bottom line It goes up about 500 thousand dollars A year I mean per per column that's important But I want to and and that's good, but if you think that's good, I want to talk to any fire movement It's brad barrett here today by chance And no and no fire movement people here. Well, let me tell you They're standing behind you because they're trying to learn how to invest like you're investing But they're young and they want to retire at 40 45 or 50 This next Chart table.  It's going to be more aligned to what we might be thinking and that is Distributions in retirement Now, yes, this is all equity on this page But please understand that I'm just I'm having this replicate the the equity portion of your portfolio. Okay So you may only have 20% in equity, but I want you to see what happens here And what we have with the s&p 500 start with a million dollars taken out 40 000 dollars Increasing that by real inflation every year over this period of time You would have taken out about eight and a half million dollars over that 53 year period And at the end of that period with the s&p 500 you would have been left with about nine million dollars I do not know anybody I've ever met that would say that was not a good outcome Now it's all equity, so I'm not recommending we go put all of our money in equity for for retirement But that shows in the equity part, but I just want to go one tiny step to the right And add 10 small cap value And when I first saw this I actually didn't believe it. I said daryl. There's something wrong And then he went through the whole thing line item by line item confirm everything was right instead of nine million dollars It's about 25 million dollars Because that's that impact of that that uh four tenths of one percent And I'll tell you what else it is and this is why I love adding other asset classes to the s&p 500 That when we look at that period 2000 through 2009 What we know is that was not good for the s&p 500 And so you actually over that period of time you went from about let's say six million down to about 3.7 million Over in the let's take the 5050 you were at 22 million in the beginning and you ended at 31 How can the s&p 500 be rolling dropping like a rock? Oh, I didn't see your fingers am I got Okay Look at the table And I am out of town, but I want you to see this and look look at the pdf here is why people Can shy away from small cap value every time you see a green area small cap values doing well But every time you see it moving sideways next to the s&p 500 It means it's not doing better than the s&p 500 Which means over half of the time you were not doing any better than the s&p 500 And if you're an advisor and you're advising clients And you're not doing well and they're looking at that. What's that small cap value in there for? And it's because they don't want to hold it for 17 years to get the premium It is not easy and then I'm going to go forward here and just show one more And that is Avantas did this study. We're going to write it up. I think it's beautiful study Show the return of six different small cap value indexes six different small cap growth indexes six different small cap blend indexes And the difference between the best index over 15 years and the worst Was about two and a half percent I mean you could be in growth or small cap or core small In an index and simply be in the wrong index Which it means that we need to understand how indexes are being constructed if we're going to be an index investor That's bootcamp on our website That's me teaching classes. These are free books. My time is up. Thank you, Jim and thank you all


Going on everyone Sam here with late in sports cards doing rip in 22 panini XR football seven box half case break number 19 Random team stylers look again at your random results As always you can find these on the website under the results tab as well as the link in chat Fox family stop Fox. Oh Good luck here everybody. Let's do it here. We go Nico Collins to 249 goal Jake Ferguson seven of 10 Cowboys and Nicoby Dean rookie feeling a one-on-one in the second box. All right. Okay. All right. Okay. I can be talked into that Got auto David Montgomery 13 to 50 going to the Bears. There you go Shane Derek Carr Devante Adams six of 15 going to the Raiders on the combo spot Rats on that Vegas Berry G pierce extreme rookies 9 of 10 for the Colts Zemir White to 99 Isaiah Speller to 249 rookie of Brian Robinson, Jr. base and base and John Matchy 77 out of 199 on the jumbo rookie jersey auto for Houston Congrats Texans All right Fox then is Predicting a one-on-one in this box. Let's see got a CJ Mosley to 249 Trayvon Walker base rookie rookie expo Zay to 149 at Skymore and Tyler or Troy Anderson to 199 will not be resumed. What are they ruling in a no contest? Vaughn or tie Trey McPride 148 out of 199 triple rookie jersey auto Troy Anderson to 49 K Von Cibodeau rookie Danny Gray to 199 Base and base this is cool gamers Zach Martin November 23rd 2017 19 out of 99 For the Cowboys and right behind it another gamer Zach Martin same game 6 to 49 Cowboys can start putting this jersey together now. They're sweet dude. I gotta love the O linemen love Love for the trenches Monro St. Brown to 199 Jake Ferguson to 49 Veilish Jones rookie base Leo Chanel rookie auto to 199 going to the Chiefs He's actually a pretty good rotational player for them and Kyle Hamilton 47 out of 49 two-color patch for the Ravens I think so. Yeah, they don't have like a partnership with any of the company's I don't believe there's Kenneth Walker to 149 Tyrion Davis Price to 99 Jolani Woods to 249 Jordan Davis base and base and Kenny Pickett to 99 39 out of 99 rookie Jersey auto nice one there congrats dealers Cody be with the Steelers Cody Extra extra Josh Allen for the bills to 99 Sonnaskin to 199 Reese Hall to 249 Tyler Algier rookie I know I thrive in that situation Veilish Jones jr. Going to the Bears 35 of 49 there you go again Shane two-color RPA Not for sale Not for sale group break right here Travis ETN To 249. I have no idea you put up with me Sean CD lamb to 99 and Majai Sanders Walking apart. Yeah, right in comparison nice one here going to the Titans 17 out of 99 luminous endorsements. That is Malik Willis congrats on that Tennessee alley s pulled both the Two higher drafted quarterbacks very nice And miles Garrett gamers 11 of 15 two-colored patched September 12, 2021 This is where you're saying the one of one is this was the box Thank you. I won't yeah, the fact that they date the patch is really awesome. Yeah, that is really cool Rook extreme rookie Danny Gray at the 99 Derek Carr to 249 Jermaine Johnson to 75 Brian Cook base base And Calvin Austin jr. To 199 rookie at Jersey Auto triple Chad Mooma to 49 Jalen water mar to 199 sauce gardener rookie Base and base. This is cool. Got Jersey Auto Justin Tucker 39 out of 75 for the Ravens. That's sweet dude. That's so sick Very jealous of this card Terry McClurin at Johan Dotson 7 out of 49 on the team materials No, not Justin Tucker the goat can you pick it rookie expose a to 99 Leo Chanel to 199 Devonta Smith the 249 and James Cook. He is legatron dang right base base and Trey McBride is 21 out of 75 for the Cardinals Which new airman? Got a thickie in here County Ingram the 249 James and Williams the 49 Kennedy Brooks base base Luminance rookie endorsements 18 out of 99 is George Pickens ice 7 of 25 three color two color Aiden Hutchinson Jepo Kuda on the team materials for the Lions Congrats Detroit Yeah, I'm told there's a Matt Corral one-on-one in this box Brandon Let's see it Ken Allen to 40 not Brian Asamoa to 149. This is a mirror white rookie base base Got Carson strong to 149 for the Eagles on the triple Jersey auto John Matchy X back to materials the 75 Texans last Pack of the break everybody Another thick one in here TJ Watt to 249 Rashad white to 199 Kyle Phillips base and base That's a Carson strong 36 out of 75 rookie patch auto Yeah, most likely Carl if not they'd go early tomorrow with forest and We've got Alec Pierce 22 out of 49 on the jumbo Jersey for the Colts I'll do it for the break guys do a quick recap here Alec Pierce Colts John Matchy Texans Lions duel Commander's duel Miles Garrett Browns Kyle Hamilton Ravens Zach Martin Cowboys Raiders duel a lot of dual isn't that one? Yeah, no problem Shane. We got autos Carson strong Eagles Carson strong Eagles George Pickens Steelers Trey McBride for the Cardinals Justin Tucker Ravens Calvin Austin Steelers Viles Jones Bears Zach Martin for the Cowboys Leo Chanel Chiefs Trey McBride Cardinals John Matchy Texans David Montgomery for the Bears Then we've got Mags cards Kenny Pickett to 99 for the Steelers rookie Jersey auto and Malik Willis Luminous endorsements to 99 as well That'll do it for the break. Thank you guys again for the fill next up the second half key


Now the storm storm that's been hitting the Lakeland viewing area tonight had prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter storm warning in the city of Brainerd has already declared a snow emergency. Due to the winter storm, area schools closed and many businesses closed early, including the Brainerd Public Library. Brainerd City officials warns that those who must go out during the storm should use extra precaution. I would try to avoid it, but if you do have to venture out into the snow, make sure you really watch your speed, watch out for the plows on the roads. You know, all those guys, they work a lot of hours and you know, with storms like this it gets really interesting from them up in a plow truck with limited visibility and just make sure you give them room to maneuver and do what they need to do to keep us safe on the roads. Now the Brainerd Lakes area is expected to see anywhere from four to ten inches of snow from what we're hearing. If you enjoyed this segment of Lakeland news, please consider making a tax deductible contribution to Lakeland PBS.


Welcome to economics and beyond. I'm Rob Johnson, president of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. I'm here today with my friend Orville Schell, who's the head of the U.S.-China program at the Asia Society. He's the author, along with John DeLurie, of Wealth and Power, a wonderful book about China. And I would encourage you to go to the iNAT website and revisit the interview that we did on video together when that book was released. Orville is also working on a new novel, which will come out by Alfred Knapp, probably around the turn of the year, on China called My Old Home. Orville has recently written an article called The End of Engagement about the U.S.-China relationship. And reading that article inspired me to call you. And thank you for joining me today. I think our listeners have a lot to learn from the kind of thoughts that you've been creating. It will be fun. So Orville, it's near the end of June 2020. The pandemic is here. We're watching all kinds of stresses in economy, stresses with regard to health, concern about whether collaboration and climate change will be, how I say, made more difficult by these things. And you, a specialist in understanding China and its relationship to the United States, and I know you've done work with the Governor of California on climate change, I just want to open wide up. What are you seeing? What is really going on inside China itself? And how are we going to address the kind of challenges that you wrote about with The End of Engagement? Well, what's so striking to me, Rob, is that after all of these decades of following the U.S.-China relationship at this time, when we have this confluence of a whole stream of other extraordinarily stressful problems assaulting us, we also find that we are at the end of a period of almost a half a century of a framework that did manage to keep the U.S. and China in a reasonably constructive and increasingly engaged mode. And that was very striking and quite extraordinary given the fact that China is a Marxist-Leninist system with a completely different political structure and value system. And yet, since 1972, when Kissinger and Nixon went to China and forged that partnership with Mao Zedong and Joe Enlai, the two countries have managed to coexist and even to become much more interconnected. And that was, I think, looking back on it, a rather extraordinary accomplishment. So we're left to ask at this point now when I think it's fair to say that engagement is essentially over as a framework. And it happens precisely when we're being hit by a pandemic, an economic depression, and a whole myriad of other things. Why did that happen? And who's responsible for that sorry end? I would have to say that, you know, as you look back over the decades before, which I did in writing this article, The Death of Engagement, I went back into a lot of archives, read a lot of books, papers, you know, whatnot. The thing that really, really impressed me was the degree to which the United States over a period of eight presidential administrations, almost every single president, didn't matter if they came in raging against, you know, the butchers of Beijing, the Baghdad or, you know, against communism, they all came out trying to support engagement, trying to steady the course and to keep the United States committed to interacting with China under the supposition that China would slowly change, it would slowly become integrated into the global marketplace, and it might even become more comfortable within the whole outside world of liberal democratic values. So why did that end? And, you know, even more important, what's going to replace it? And now that question, of course, is the most critical question of all, because we see that as China drifts into a much more aggressive and assertive posture, places like in India and Australia and around the world, you know, we're left to ask, how are we going to get along with the second largest economy, the most populous nation in the world without any real kind of a clear framework and operating system? Well, this breakdown is quite daunting. And I guess my tendency would be to go inside each of the countries and understand what were the forces that are tearing it apart. You have a much more experienced deeper lens into the inner workings of China. What are some of the clues? What are some of the elements that you see that what you might call illuminate the stresses that are bringing this breakdown to the surface? Well, that really is the question of questions. And I think one might sort of analyze it this way that, of course, when China began its whole developmental process back in the late 1970s, as it came out of the Maoist period and Deng Xiaoping started the period of openness and reform, the key elements were economic reform. And secondarily, people also around the world hoped that political reform would also follow. And as that evolution continued through the 80s, there were some extraordinary changes that did, in fact, grip China and did transform it in very significant ways. But then what happened 1989 and the Beijing massacre, and that really sadly, in retrospect, I have to say, and I was there during most of it. And I felt in many ways it was completely justified what people were asking for. But it did put a stake through the heart of the Communist Party's comfort level with the idea of reform, because suddenly they thought if you let reform go, this is what you get. A million people in the center of your capital city embarrassing you, humiliating you, and bringing everything to a grinding halt. So that put a huge break on the whole process of reform within China. And that meant that as China developed economically, it was much less inclined to actually change the structures of its economy, and certainly not its body politic. And it created a situation where the playing field with countries like the United States and the EU, particularly in markets, became more and more out of level as China developed. So the inequities rose. China continued to act as if it were developing country. It was very protectionist, excluded foreign companies from many parts of its markets, where it was welcomed almost around the full compass rose and outside of China. But this created an inequity, a lack of reciprocity, an unlevel playing field that became increasingly less tolerable. And of course, Obama recognized this, and that's what the pivot to Asia was all about under him, the people like Kurt Campbell sort of wrote that kind of document. And then along came Trump, who in his very sort of animal way, always knows when he's being taken or when he's being deceived or not being treated right. And he looked at the relationship and in many ways he got it wrong, but in certain ways he got it right. And he said, this isn't working. It's not fair. It's not reciprocal. It's not level. And I'm not going to take it anymore. And so then you've got both sides in a state of antagonism over how to level the playing field. And that's where we are. That's where we are today. So that really, I think, puts most of the burden on China for not recognizing that to play this game, to be in the engagement process required that it keep performing and that it, as it molted out of its developmental phases as a country that was not advanced, it had to also be more reciprocal. I mean, just look at certain things like the whole areas in China where American companies or European companies are completely excluded, information technology, there isn't an IT company in America that can actually operate openly in China.  I mean, there are myriad others, of course, where the playing field is not level. And so we are reaping that bitter harvest now. And then we've got President Trump as a president who recognized the problem and said about trying to do something about it, but in many ways, quite ineptly, I think. Yeah, I look at the, you know, many people acted like at some level Trump created this. And I think that's a little too convenient. My own look at the United States, I could see Silicon Valley companies feeling blocked. I could see knowledge intensive companies engaging in foreign direct investment in China and thinking they would have access to an enormous economies of scale through a market. And then they watched what you might call the transfer of technology to domestic firms who became favored, and they lost out. I saw Wall Street anticipating a deepening and modernization of the capital markets in China, and then global integration of the Rememby into the foreign exchange system. And that was thwarted. So looking, and then finally the traditional companies, the Nikes, the Walmarts and others, started to experience profit compression because the Chinese, and this isn't necessarily a bad thing, started to want to raise the wages of their people and improve the environmental standards. So some of these things are good, some of the things are not. And when people saw the China 2025 design, which was about displacing things at the upper end of the value chain, I just think what you might call that raw hard political economy within the United States said, this doesn't look like comparative advantage. This doesn't look like us working together and making people better off here and there, and what they would call the gains from trade. And so you'd mentioned Kurt Campbell and another gentleman named Blackwell at the CFR. We're writing about this in late 2014, early 2015, which is before Donald Trump's campaign took off. So I think the forces were mounting and the only place where I would agree with Chinese leaders who I've met with is that they say China is large scale. It's not the size of Tonga. It's four or five times the size of the United States. And so as they begin to develop, globalization is going to create substantial adjustment and displacement everywhere else in the world, primarily meaning the advanced countries of Europe and the United States and Japan. And when they say that, they're saying essentially who was guilty was American political economy, which used the power of the new profits of the winning sectors to lobby Washington to keep their money offshore, to limit infrastructure, to not pay trade adjustment assistance or retraining on an adequate scale. And then when the many people in America were in despair, which contributed to Trump's election, they wanted to blame China. And the Chinese leaders say we were powerless in the adjustment assistance process, but we understand it was coming because of the scale and the intensity of China's development. So I can see pressures on both sides and failures on both sides. But that's where we are now. Yes. And I think the striking thing, Rob, is that if you look at the goodwill that really was all around the compass rose in, let's say, the 1980s. And even in the 1990s under Jiang Zemin and Clinton came, I remember Clinton came into power talking about the butchers of Baghdad, the Beijing, and he came out a really, really close ally of Jiang Zemin. And I went on that trip in 1998 to China with him. And I've never seen such a kind of a close, sort of friendly accord between a US and Chinese leader. But what happened after that was quite striking. One by one, China managed to alienate constituencies within the United States. I mean, it lost the church. It lost the military. It lost academics by, you know, harassing them and not letting, giving them visas, not letting them into archives. It lost journalists. And then the last group that it lost as consequence was the one group in America that really was the heart and soul of the engagement process as functional. And that was the businessman. And I remember three, four years ago, you began to hear all the chambers of commerce starting to be increasingly negative about reporting the sentiments of their members within China. And that continued to become much more sort of critical. And when the businessmen were lost, then China really had no one in the United States supporting the idea that engagement was a functional, ongoing process that would ultimately bring us, make us more convergent rather than divergent. So that was the tragedy. And that's where we are now. We are very closely intertwined in terms of supply chains and in terms of sort of economics and trade. And yet increasingly, we feel divided in every other way. And moreover, we don't have any of the kind of, you know, big timber leadership that might wrench this thing around in some fundamental ways through some dramatic readjustment or recalibration. And so we're, we find ourselves in a very dangerous spiral downward that is being reinforced by economic forces, political forces, military forces, human rights forces, and geopolitical forces around the globe. What's interesting to me is when I've met, I've never met Xi Jinping, but I've met most of the other top people in China repeatedly, is that these are not unstudied, uneducated, unaware people. They are very sophisticated people. Why are they behaving this way as a country? What is going on that's driving their leadership and particularly Xi Jinping in this aggressive direction? So this is a really important question to pose, because if you look around the world, you find a very striking tableau of countries which once were seemingly unimaginable in terms of being in some state of antagonism with China, and they're now been pushed to a position where you know, they're very skeptical about China and increasingly view it as a threat.  Well, the Chinese have hectored and bullied Sweden to the point where they are very alienated. They did this to Norway over Leo Schaupel, the Nobel Prize winner, and they sort of penalized Norway and salmon imports and whatnot. Look at what's happened in Australia. This country is very dependent on Chinese markets on grain, beef, iron ore, and yet because of inept Chinese diplomacy and intrusiveness into Australian politics, etc., we now find the Australian government in a very sort of antagonistic relationship with China. And there are many other examples. India, just of late, with the Aksai-Chin-Ladak border feuds, India now is being sort of driven out of any kind of state of being, you know, a non-aligned country. So you have to ask yourself, why is China doing this? What does it gain, the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the way they treated Korea after the Thad missile of Guha? Well, I think, you know, two things suggest themselves as answers. One is that the sense that China's current leaders have that the U.S. is in decline has given them a kind of an unrealistic sense of their own omnipotence and their own power, almost like a tragic, a Greek tragedy in which the hero overweening ambition and hoopers overreaches and comes a cropper. So there's that element.  And you see that in the way he's managed to inculcate such an incredible state of sort of Leninist discipline within China. But he is not a very cosmopolitan man. He has never been abroad, does not speak a foreign language. And I think fundamentally doesn't feel particularly comfortable in global company. And we now live in a global world. He goes to Davos, but he doesn't mix. And if you look at other leaders, there was much more sort of spontaneity and openness. Johnson, then Clinton, I've alluded to, but Deng Xiaoping, who'd been to France, and Jimmy Carter, and Joe and Lai, who had also been to France and Russia with Kissinger and Nixon, but not Xi Jinping. So I think in a certain sense, she is a person who is rather hermetically raised in China, and is probably someone who does not feel very comfortable and secure in dealing with sort of global leadership circles in a way that outside leaders are accustomed to. And thus he relies on ritual, on formality, and sort of structured ceremony. And that, of course, makes it very difficult to wrench fundamental problems back into a state of equilibrium. Well, the interesting thing from my perspective is I would have thought, as China and the United States were at loggerheads, that various other places, Africa, Europe, other countries in Asia, India in particular, and Australia, they would be seeking to fortify their relations with. But isn't it, at least as I'm following the news, it seems like those frontiers are antagonistic as well? Yeah, I think it's very important to kind of do an assay of sort of major players around the world and what are the trend lines in terms of their relations with China? Despite the fact that Trump is quite inept and is leaving a tremendous leadership vacuum in the world, the striking thing is the degree to which Xi Jinping and China are nonetheless alienating one country after another. So it's almost as if Trump and Xi are in a race to see who can do the worst job in terms of weaving a global fabric of allies together in their own national interests. So I mean, I've mentioned a few of the countries around the world where China has been alienating people. But if you look at Europe, which remember, Europe has no security issue in Asia the way the US does. It doesn't have a seventh fleet. It doesn't have an alliance structure. And we have that with Japan, Korea, Australia, to some degree, with the Philippines, they're a technical treaty ally. And we have an increasingly close relationship with countries like Vietnam and even Singapore. China or Europe does not have that. There's no boats out there. There's no responsibilities. Their relationship with China is pretty much strict trade. And yet, one country after another, you see them looking increasingly at China as some kind of a threat. And you notice this particularly in their relation to the issue of 5G and Huawei and whether they feel comfortable with their countries adopting Huawei 5G infrastructure. And we see now even people like Boris Johnson, I mean, remember in Britain, the golden era on Cameron when Britain and China were going to waltz off into the future, that's gone. And you find people like Boris Johnson initiating what he's called the 10D, the 10 democracies to get together, to figure out a way to meet the China challenge. You see in the EC, the EU, Joseph Borrell, who's the head of the China Committee, increasingly looking at China as something that needs to be countered, not just embraced and collaborated with. Even Merkel and Germany, you see this in the Czech Republic. It's quite an interesting turn of the worm there. And you have the prime minister of Denmark saying, we shouldn't take Huawei 5G in Denmark. We should take it from a friendly country. This doesn't make sense to deal with a country that has a different political system and different values on such a fundamental technological level. So it's really interesting to look at the way the lights are turning on all around the world in terms of a greater awareness and a greater sense of caution about being too deeply involved with China, particularly on matters of national security, such as 5G. Well, I see, I mentioned earlier, the vision of economies of scale. I remember in the 70s, people talking about Pepsi and Coke having a billion two customers and things like that. What I'm hearing now from people I know in the tech sector is China is playing a hand of cards where Huawei gets to be building the infrastructure all over the world, but the Chinese market is closed to just them. So they can cross subsidize with the profits they make with monopoly power at home in order to what you might call undermine competition in the other parts of the world. I can't imagine why other countries would stand for that. Well, I think that that's precisely the plan, that if you can shut IT companies out of China and give their national champions like Huawei the run of the pen, then they can build up tremendous amounts of profit and R&D and then go abroad and occupy key technological sectors. And then in a certain sense, the world will be Chinese. You logically have asked, why would this be sustainable or acceptable? And I think the answer is it shouldn't be and it isn't. And what is so interesting to me as I watch this now is to see one country after another asking the very question that you've asked and coming up with a question, an answer to that question, which is we need another sort of way forward. And so where does that leave them? Well, not with tremendously much. There's Ericsson, there's Nokia in Europe, Qualcomm makes the chips in this country. What we really need if we're serious about competing with China and not letting China into sectors where national security might be threatened such as IT, we need some sort of a collaboration among these companies, which I think will take some sort of state to state subsidy, because if we're going to have an answer to Huawei, which does base stations, it does the works, we've got to really get with it or Huawei is going to win. So this is a kind of a metaphor for the competition that is building between China and other countries, particularly the US, particularly in the areas where security really matters like IT. And I guess we always in the United States hear about the Asian region and military confrontation around various islands and so forth. What's happening in the explicit military realm? Is China acting in an aggressive manner there, or is it more commercially aggressive rather than militarily aggressive in this context? Well, sad to say that if it was just a commercial, just a market competition dilemma between China and the world, that might be manageable. Where we really have danger zones are in the South China Sea, Hong Kong to some degree, although it's doubtful that that could be caused by any military intervention, but certainly Taiwan. And the East China Sea, where the Japanese have administrative control over the Tsingaku Islands, the Chinese golem, the Diao Yudal, and they're not about to give them up. And China is very aggressively sort of challenging Japanese control there. Those three areas are the areas where we could very, very easily have a military dust up, which could lead to some larger conflict. So if it was just a question of technology and market competition, etc., etc., that would be one thing, but you add an overlay of this very assertive, aggressive, forward military posture of China in these other areas. And you have a very inflammatory situation. And remember, in the South China Sea, the so-called Nine-Dash Line, China basically claims the entire South China Sea as its own. It's like a giant cow udder that comes down from South China and Hainan Island all the way down to Indonesia, to the Natuna Islands off Indonesia, sweeps down the Vietnamese coast, down the Malaysian coast to Singapore, up Borneo, all right skirts along the Philippines. And these are some of the most important fishing grounds and possibly petroleum tracks in the region. So this is really dangerous stuff. And China's built islands, built military bases and shows no sign of willing to trim its jib or make any kind of accommodation to anybody. So if you were advising, we'll call it the next American administration, we'll call it the Biden administration. We have this whole constellation of difficulties. And yet on the horizon, we have a dangerous challenge related to climate. How would you advise an administration in coming, or I guess on January of next year, to approach necessary collaboration with China on environmental issues? Well, it's interesting. You raised the question of the environmental challenge, because that is in fact the great common interest that whether we care to acknowledge it or not binds us to China. And it is infinitely more compelling, in my view, than the challenge the Soviet Union posed the two countries in 1972 when Kissinger and Nixon went, and they buried the hatchet in order to ally against the Soviet Union. It's also interesting to note that right now, there is a real threat to the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River. There's very torrential rains and very high levels of river flow in the area of South China that is putting the Three Gorges Dam in enormous jeopardy. If that dam were to ever go, it would wipe out many cities downstream, including Shanghai, and it would be one of the great disasters of history. So that highlights the importance of climate change. So is it possible to get together around these areas where we do have a common interest like the pandemic? But we show no evidence whatsoever of being able to collaborate on this recent COVID-19 pandemic. So what should Biden do? Well, I mean, in many ways, Biden is well-suited to try to have a major new sort of global initiative to reformulate to recalibrate the operating system between China, the US, and the world. Because when he was vice president, it was he who hosted Xi Jinping in America when he came here on a trip, and I went on that trip and watched them interact. And in many ways, Biden was the perfect antidote to Xi Jinping's very formal ritualistic, ceremonial manner, never giving away much, no back slapping, no glad handing. And then Xi Jinping invited Biden to China, and he went back. And I thought it was one of Obama's great mistakes that he did to appoint Biden, the China guy at a high level as vice president, but he didn't do it. Anyway, if he were to come into office, I think he would be in a very good position to say, listen, this is one of the truly dangerous moments in history, when two great powers are sliding ineluctably toward an increasingly adversarial relationship.  Would it work? I'm not particularly optimistic, but I do think it is definitely worth a try. And I think I don't know whether China is at this point capable of responding in a spontaneous enough, open enough, innovative enough way. I don't see that particularly in Xi Jinping's MO. But I think it is something that Biden would know how to do. He should do. He might even appoint someone like Bill Clinton to try to go and kick this thing around into a different frame. Who would China appoint to match Clinton? That's the question. There isn't anyone besides Xi Jinping. So I don't know what will happen, but I do think that if Biden gets elected, that's essential. And I think it probably is on his agenda. So I want to go back a little bit to your book Wealth and Power, because it seems to me at least in my own way of seeing that that book described a woundedness that derived from being a middle kingdom, a great leader of civilization, and then being humiliated. As a result, first of the opium of wars used to be Great Britain and then the Japanese invasion during the Second World War. What would free Xi Jinping or his ruling coalition to feel like they experienced national, what I'll call, resurrection and dignity in the context of collaboration? Because if they're fighting, what you might call those scar tissues, those ghosts, it makes it even harder to see the benefits of collaboration that seem to be potentially right in front of us. Yes. I think you've used a very apt metaphor here, scar tissue. And I think we have to remember that part of the whole, an essential element in the whole Chinese communist ideology, which began back in the 1920s, was China as a victim. China as a hapless, helpless, supine power that had broken down and collapsed, being preyed upon by the great powers. And they had this notion of 100 years of humiliation. And that is very deeply ingrained, I think, in the sort of genetic code of China as a culture and the way it looks on the world. And of course, this is what Xi Jinping's China dream is all about rectifying, and his notion of a rejuvenation of China, this word in Chinese fuxing, that to rejuvenate China, this is the heart and soul of what he wants to bring about. And in many ways, I think it's fair to say that China has accomplished this rejuvenation. It's extraordinary what the Chinese people, and one would have to say, to give credit where credit is due, the Chinese Communist Party has accomplished by way of development in China. But what is so striking about that success is that it hasn't translated into any less of a sense of victimhood. And in fact, the old ideology of anti imperialism and victimization and humiliation continues on to be the predominant party ideology, even as they have this incredibly startling, historic, never equaled in the history of the world's success. And the tragedy of that is that you cannot be successful and a victim at the same time. So in a certain sense, China's insistence on maintaining its victim culture denies it the very sense of successfulness and accomplishment that it deserves. And this is a real problem, and this is where history is so important. You just can't erase history. It's very hard to get rid of history. And history keeps barking and biting in China in ways that really, I think distort and corrupt China's ability to see itself in a new way as a successful great power, rather than as a still victimized, you know, used to be known as the poor man of Asia, right? And sort of humiliating a moniker. So this is a dilemma. History is still sort of making Chinese see themselves in a way that doesn't comport with the actual state of grace of their country. Well, now the other side of what I'll call the narcissist pool, you see the United States, which has been the world leader of the principal architect for many, many years. And China, very large and growing, increasingly powerful country, is not emulating all aspects of the American system and folding into our world system design. So I guess I'd say from the pride of having been number one, America may have some digestive difficulties with the need to express national identity that is so important to the Chinese. I know, isn't it, isn't it strange that you have both of these great, great accomplished powers competing to in a way to see who can be the biggest victim? Trump blaming the virus on the Chinese, okay, fair enough. But I mean, you know, why not just beat the virus at home and show them what a superior country we are, because we can do it instead of blaming someone. So we're in a kind of a weird historical period where all of the great powers are feeling victimized, filled with grievances. I mean, look at Russia. That's another grievance culture. And it's very odd that nobody's able to enjoy their own accomplishments. Estelle is instead insisting on blaming someone else for the things that they haven't been able to do. And we're into this very masochistic world of self-flagellation. And it's all quite extraordinary because it throws the whole global compact off into the world of psychology and puts it right on Freud's couch, rather than, you know, in the World Trade Organization or the UN. And it's a psychological issue in some deeply fundamental way that we are completely unprepared to analyze or deal with. Yeah, I think we need to go back to the spirits of Joseph Campbell and Xi Jinping to help us unravel this puzzle. Well, I mean, I think, Rob, this is why when you get right down to it, it's all well and good to be a policy specialist and to be in a think tank and walk away. But actually, a lot of these issues that we're dealing with are ones that are all too human. And this is why I constantly go back and read Greek tragedy, because in many ways, I think what we see acting out, being acted out today, is a kind of a tragedy of human weakness and human frailty, rather than a bad policy or lack of rational insight. Yeah, and I, I guess, Oral, I remember, I think it was you, it was your son, Ollie, that suggested to me watching a movie that he said was growing in leaps and bounds in China, and people were singing the national anthem on the closing credits called Wolf Warrior 2. Oh, boy. I mean, hasn't that become the, you know, the text of the of the moment? Yes, especially as pertains to Africa. Yes, and what's the Wolf Warrior all about? It's about the most simple-minded antidote to being a victim. You turn into it's, it's opposite. You turn into a belligerent bully. Yeah. And, but I remember that film and, and the energy that it generated, the box office energy, I think it's like the third or fourth highest box office film ever, largely because of the enthusiasm inside of China. But I found just the whole storyline, how would I say, the victim's revenge and turning into a superhero. Yes, I mean, I think you can, you could say, if you, if you're trying to understand why China is acting as assertively, aggressively and belligerently as it is, and it's in a kind of a very sad and tragic way, it, its own era of being bullied by superpowers taught it, that when you become a superpower yourself, one of the hallmarks of that arrival is that you get to bully too.  And so we, we, we may be in a period where strangely we're, we're, you know, we're, we're reaping a bitter harvest of our own great power malfeasance that China is now acting out that script itself. It's something that Freud explicitly, Sigmund Freud referred to as identification with the aggressor. Yes. Meaning when someone has pushed you down, the way you feel good is by doing to others, what made you feel humiliated? Yes, I mean, the great Chinese writer Lu Shun always said that, you know, the relationship between slave and master was not a contradiction or opposite. It was two sides of the same proposition and that when the slave becomes the master, it's all too easy to adopt the master's predatory behavior. And there, there is a bit of that going on, I think, right now. Yeah. Yeah. Well, there's a whole lot that sits on the horizon before us. And a lot of what you've unpacked today should give people insight into the complexity, the degree and the difficulty of the challenges that are on the horizon. And I hope after a few months past, maybe after a presidential election, you and I can get back together again, take stock of where things have evolved to and provide another chapter to this podcast. But for now, I really just want to thank you for being here today and for helping us all dig in and understand. And I want to encourage everybody to watch the work that you do in the US China program at the Asia Society. And obviously to pre-order your novel as soon as we can find it at Knopf's website or Amazon or wherever. But thanks, Orville. It's always great to talk with you. And as I mentioned, when Wealth and Power came out, we did a video together on the Inet websites that people can, I'll put that link up on associated with our podcast. But my best to you and your family. I wish I could see you out in Bolinas, but I'm stuck here in New York. But I'm not stuck when I get to talk to great people like you. Well, thank you Robert. It was a lot of fun. Yeah. As always. Thanks. All right, cheers. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. And check out more from the Institute for New Economic Thinking at InetEconomics.org.


Today I'm showing you my McCalls 8106 aka Sky McCalls. I had a ton of fun making this dress and cannot wait to tell you all about it. The website describes this as a bias cut slip dress with cowl neckline and with or without drawstring details. I somehow missed the part about it being a bias cut dress but I was thrilled when I saw that. I love bias cut dresses so flattering so comfortable. Regardless I was going to be making this out of a knit so bias doesn't really apply to this version but it was nice to know for future makes.  I do think there are some small fit issues mostly with the back piece and there are also some construction things that I want to point out.  The back is finished the back neckline is finished with a facing which is a little odd for a knit but I just went with it. As I'm showing you this facing you can see that the center back is a little bit wide which makes sense because you can also see from the front that the straps are kind of like wide set. I think they're supposed to be sitting up higher on my shoulder I mean not super high but maybe like an inch or so in. This would also make the cowl a little bit droopier a little bit drapeier and maybe a little bit more intentional which I actually think is a good thing. The other thing I want to point out is the construction of the shoulder seam. They have you sew and finish the shoulder seam then finish your arm side and then sew down the facing. There is no instruction for finishing the raw edge of the shoulder edge of the facing either. Again this is a knit so it's not the big of a deal but if it had been a woven I would have had to unpick some seams to finish that facing. The next fit thing that I want to talk about is the size of the arm side mostly the scoop that's underneath the arm. It is a pretty low scoop so I think that I need to actually take it up in the shoulder seam. Whenever I have a really low arm side like this I find that just filling it in doesn't necessarily fix the problem and that it usually is a result of your shoulders being too long so I need to take up the shoulder some. I'll put this on my ditto form and show you guys what I'm talking about in a future Tuesday fitting video but I just want to point out that this does have really droopy arm size. Other than those things the fit is really nice it's just shapely enough to show some curves but not too tight that it is uncomfortable. The length of the dress is as drafted I did not lengthen or shorten the pattern at all and I am 5'5 for reference. The hem length is just below my knee but I think that that's nice with a dress of this design and I wouldn't have wanted to shorten it at all. All in all with just a few tweaks here and there I think this pattern is really going to be a great tried and true. My next one will for sure be a bias cut woven so stay tuned for that. I do want to talk to you guys about the fabric some. This is a cotton jersey knit from Joanne. Joanne has a lot of great jersey knits. They just happen to be in the juvenile section of the store. I do not know why they're not printing more mature prints on this cotton print hopefully maybe they're watching these videos and they will start to do that because I've mentioned it before. They have some beautiful prints in the women's section but they're all on rayon jersey and I much prefer a cotton jersey. So check out the juvenile prints the knits they you know obviously there's dinosaurs and rainbows and things like that but they also have some that are just really fun kind of bright maybe borderline juvenile I'm okay with that but this one's really nice I got another one that's tie-dye so you can find some things you just kind of have to dig for it. Oh and I also heard from a viewer that they're doing solids now so be sure to check that out but that is gonna do it for me today thank you all so much for watching and I will see you very soon bye


Hi, I'm Rami Abu Jamrah. I'm a medical doctor and a human geneticist. I work at the Institute of Human Genetics in Erlangen. I met a family that has two children with intellectual disability and they asked me if I can know the reason that would be of great advantage for them. It looked like or to some a recessive. I made mapping and sequencing and I identified a very interesting candidate mutation in his brain. To functionally characterize it, I thought that I must find somebody who knows that, who can do it and who is interested. I was very lucky to find a group of Helen Morrison and Jena. Helen is working with this gene and she is an expert so I think it's the time to give up to Helen. Hello, my name is Helen Morrison. I'm a biologist working at the Leibniz Institute for Age Research in Jena. Our lab studies escharine function in the nervous system so for this particular study I'd like to hand over to Lars who is the first author and he can very well explain the study. Hello, I'm Lars Witten. I'm a PhD student at the Morrison Lab and first author of our study published in Human Mutation. In the study we identified an inhibition of RAS activation due to homozygous escharine variant in patients with profound intellectual disability. We examined the family with one healthy daughter and two affected sons. The boys showed severe intellectual disability, a partial malformation of the brain and a developmental delay that was obvious as early as three months of age. Following exome sequencing, filtering and in silico prediction of pathogenicity, we identified a single variant located in EZR, the gene coding for the protein escharine. Escharine is classically known for linking membrane proteins to the actin cytoskeleton, thereby organizing cell polarity and architecture. Membrane binding is mediated by the firm domain, which also contains the identified variant. However, using fluorescently labeled proteins, we did not detect any differences in membrane targeting or subcellular localization. In addition to Escharine's linker function, we recently identified also a role in growth factor signaling, where Escharine assists activation of the small GDPS RAS. RAS in turn is essential for many cellular processes, including proliferation and neuronal differentiation. The identified escharine variant is located within the firm's subdomain F2. Modeling this variant into Escharine's crystal structure suggested a disturbance of its local conformation. Modeling the variant into the related structure of CRAT1 further suggested that this variant may disturb an important binding surface used for small GDPS binding. We had previously reported that Escharine can directly bind RAS via its firm domain. Therefore, we investigated whether this binding of RAS is disturbed by the identified variant. Indeed, we found that RAS binding was strongly impaired, both in complexes isolated from cellular lysates, as well as in direct binding assays using purified recombinant proteins. As a downstream consequence, the variant also inhibited growth factor-induced RAS activation and cellular proliferation. In summary, our data indicates that the identified Escharine variant inhibits proper formation of a previously identified RAS activation complex. The variant precludes RAS from this complex, thus prevents its activation and inhibits RAS-dependent cellular processes. We suggest that this Escharine variant constitutes a novel type of developmental RAS pathway disturbance that is characterized by reduced RAS activity. Classically, developmental RAS pathway disturbances are characterized by a hyperactivation of the pathway due to dominantly inherited variants. In contrast, our data indicates that the identified Escharine variant is the first recessively inherited variant that leads to reduced RAS pathway activity and therefore may represent a novel counterpart to the classic RASopathies. We hope you enjoyed our video abstract. For further information, please refer to our publication at Human Mutation. And for further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Thank you very much.


We have more than a thousand companies that have joined the COVID platform. No, we are also moving into the mood of looking at what would a great reset look like, how to restart the global engine, how to get out of the recession. Emerging economies are at this point looking at its first really contraction of the economies for the first time in six decades. We cannot end this pandemic unless we end it in every continent and every country will be truly safe only when everyone is safe. There is a profound hunger for global leadership that can exercise moral imagination and moral courage on behalf of the common good. The best way that the banking system can aid that process, and aid, frankly, making this recession as tolerable as it can be as to continue lending. There was a lot of firepower used by central banks. Absolutely the right thing to do, no question about that. We had to stabilize financial markets, but we're going to have to come back and revisit the effectiveness of doing that. There is a pressing need to reduce the continent's high trade dependency on non-African partners. Inter-African trade accounts for less than 16% of the continent's total trade, and therefore in post-COVID world, once fully operational, the CFT could boost intra-African trade significantly and aid in economic recovery. We should also make sure that we get a more sustainable economy. There are huge opportunities here, and we can also leapfrog when it comes to digitalization. There were a number of automation and digitalization trends already underway that were already likely to disrupt jobs. And I think what this crisis is likely to do is actually make that opportunity for reaction, that window for opportunity even shorter than it was before, because a lot of the digitalization trends are likely to accelerate in this current crisis, in addition to the job losses from the structural change that has occurred. We're putting a lot of emphasis on creating jobs. We're no longer setting a GDP growth target. Instead, we're setting a target for job creation and job maintenance. I think this is one thing which is highly dependent on government's policy. Today we're seeing absolutely every single C-suite that I know in America and elsewhere focused on stakeholders in the sense that they have to talk to not just their shareholders, but to their own employees, their customers, their clients, governments, and also society around them about what they're doing to respond to the crisis. And we've seen this again in relation to Black Lives Matter. What we have found in fact post-COVID is that the interests in things that are sustainable, investments that are sustainable, investments that are impactful in a positive way, and ESG has in fact been increasing. So if you look post-2020, in fact diversity does pay, in fact ESG does pay. All investing has an impact. All corporate behavior has an impact. The question is whether it's a good impact or a bad impact, and do people think about the impact? And they've not in the past, but in the future they will, and that will be at the heart of any great reset.


Hello, I'm Xiao Wu and I study for my Korean language. Hello, everyone. I want to introduce a history about Taiwan. As you've seen, it's Taiwan and its distribution about indigenous people in Taiwan in the past. But it's similar to where they live now. Okay, there are 23 million people in Taiwan and our people, indigenous people, are only about 2% The most indigenous people is Army's group. It's about 20,000 people. Yeah, 20,000 people. And this one is Kana Kana group. It's about 355 people. So our country is disappeared. And beside our country, our cellar is long and happy about living in the past and our land got disappeared too. To tell you the story, we began with the importance of preserving our country and managing this in the past. And how does it happen, why our country disappeared? So the story, I will show you the history. Okay, before some people living in Taiwan, Taiwan was shown up in the world. It's in the 16th century that Portuguese were still in the past by Taiwan and said, well, a bone mosa in a beautiful land. But the people who actually staying and got political power aren't it, aren't it, yeah. Crucial time is in the Japanese rule and our Chinese government rule. They have several policies in life like this. It's about not to say local language policy and important about a gap between Eldies and teenagers. The gap is my father's generation. He experienced this and I think most people in Taiwan experienced this at that time. So it becomes a problem to pass on the language and the culture when we want to fix it and we got the power. Like this, we preserve the language culture by decadentize in online and it seems like this. And say, Our language in Taiwan's native language.  And I'm from Dodantre in Garisadec. But when we tap on this mosa like this, so many red light under the wall. Because the system treat to be one world, they should be progressed. So it's all about a typing system. They're going to introduce this. Yeah, technology marginalized. Not just about the document system. It's about online translation. It's about online translation rules about electronic resources. And in the past, we didn't have any sort of mobile keyboard. Now we do have one for our needs. But we still don't have a keyboard for the others 15 recognized as a group. Not for those unrecognized people and for thousands of dialects of languages. So the government passed the national languages development art. And it says all national languages are equal, including indigenous languages, including Taiwanese. And residents should not be discriminated or be limited when using national languages. But in reality, we are discriminated, we are limited. And also those official documents in indigenous languages policy. So it means that when you make announcements, when you make announcements in indigenous area, you should use both Chinese and their indigenous language. But they are suffering a lot. Most public servants say they are not used to indigenous languages. And they just like our own policy. Although we have quite a class on this policy in Taiwan. But some workers in public sectors, they are still trying to do it themselves to reduce the use of these. So we are thinking about building infrastructure for indigenous languages. And it's not that hard, but like Microsoft, it does not support it at all. And so we turned to liberal arts. For liberal arts, we have a powerful platform and a wonderful community helping us. And we have a full procedure for localization to make a built-in dictionary. We have a local correct center. And so it's not that hard. We just need to follow the procedure and make a dictionary for indigenous languages. Then we just keep going and try to translate the user interface. But our priority is to make a local correct. Most indigenous people, they are really good users at Chinese, since the history he mentioned about it. So we are not that eager to translate the user interface.  Those are really annoying and they are not helpful at all. And we need some real-time timing suggestion. And then this can be a shared database for indigenous languages across free and different sources. So software, like mobile keyboards, like other softwares, it can use a similar database. And we don't want other people to do it from scratch again. And last but not least, it's free and open. It's very important. So the benefits of the project. For some fluent speakers, they will see 14 or more, because young people are taking Chinese education at school. So these people, they can use this platform to enhance their type of abilities. In the past, they are used to speak, not type. They didn't have a chance to write their own languages, because the whole language writing system is also new. So when they try to type without mistakes, because now when you type, you don't have anyone to correct it for you. So you often make mistakes. After mistakes are reduced, it will help digitalize indigenous literatures and reduce tech barriers. Because we still have a little population who are more used to indigenous languages than Chinese. So also for language learners, because we have digitalized those literatures by the elderly, by people more than 40s. So we get more learning materials for language learners like Xiaowu. And they can get higher interest in improving indigenous languages. Imagine when you use WhatsApp or another messaging app. Most people, including indigenous people, will always use Chinese. So it can be fun to type in their own languages. And for government workers, like I mentioned before, we have an ODF policy, as well as official documents in indigenous languages policy. So we combine the two, and we hope to reduce the workers in public sectors. They can reduce work time by doing the both, because they help each other. We hope so. And for indigenous communities, we try to revitalize and digitalize dying languages. And as for the liberal arts community, because at least in Taiwan we have a problem engaging young people to a community. But for indigenous activists, a lot of them are very young. And they are interested, because most of them don't take sound. And they can start to at least know there's a software called liberal arts. And the community of liberal arts is willing to make this possible. And so we can probably get more uses and more orders from the software. And also the government, since this would be the best software to type in indigenous languages. So when they are making documents in these languages, they are more willing to use this. And now we talk about the current status of the project. Now we have five foreign leaders from different indigenous youths. They represent the point of view of the indigenous community. And they can hopefully fully control the project in the near future. We don't want to take over, we don't want to control the project. It's not my language, it's their language. So we should think that they have the balls to do whatever they think is the best for the community. Also we just started the normalization process. And we received a lot of kind help from Vogue, from Franklin. And we were still learning the text. But some of the leaders of this community and members, they say that they are willing to teach indigenous youths about those non-foss, non-hubs. And they to you is not the boss, but to us it's like really bad. I don't know how to say it. And also some research centers for indigenous studies mostly at NTU, which is our school. They have shown interest in the project because some professors, they have shown their, they have expressed their pretty high interest. Also they can offer support about the linguistic and can protect the government. This is important because the central government of Taiwan, they made some dictionaries and they collected a lot of linguistic materials. But when we asked them for licenses, they said they'd rather give the license to a legal entity, like a school agency, like an official agency. So after the collaboration with the university become clear, I think this will go much smoothly. So now we have some discussions about the future. Keep the microphone with the upper part. That's okay. Don't put the hand in the lower part. Because the antenna is there. That's fine. It's okay. Okay, the following question, a discussion is our, it's a problem we meet. So the one is who owns the dictionary. And the language is belong to the indigenous people. But the license is government because they, they, they learn the language from our trips. So the discussion is who owns the license and who have to decide the language go on. So it's in my, we meet, we encounter the discussion in different culture. And the next one is this, make many, many language in, in the past, every trips in, in the nation. So, so nation, so truck research, truck and truck have a similar culture. But, but in, you know, you know, in now, they, they become the, the same, the same, the same entity group. So, so in the inside, who it may, it may, it may sacrifice some, some benefit to the, to the most people. So, so it's, it's a, it's hard to, to, to say who, who can decide or who can, who can do this. And the next one is very, very few people have, have, haven't seen a problem like what is good. So, so we, we'll talk about, like, empower some, some young people to, to see the problem and, and maybe join us, maybe to, to solve this problem. Okay. Okay. So let me come through those three problems. So, like I mentioned before, we have many dialects and we have different tribes, different villages, and let's speak a little bit different. But there's a standard for each, each language. So who can decide, who can decide to use which dialect to be like the standard or, or to be like the language for this platform. And this is the biggest problem and the other problem is to empower indigenous youth to, to join this project. So we hope to build a government structure because this is a complicated issue. It's about ethnic, it's about, yeah, ethics, it's about different, different groups of people. So, so please help us to find out more about these topics. We will try to come forward and find everyone else again. And we want to hear from you as much as possible and learn about your thoughts, your ideas about these topics. And not just limited to these topics, about more different, different points of views. I think most of you have heard similar problems in your own country. So, or maybe send us an email because this is just a new, more ideal. We want to build this structure maybe in the future people from other countries, they can use, they can follow the structure or they can, they can take advantage from this. Yeah, and maybe working together is always good. Yeah, thank you so much. I don't know if we have two or three minutes. We have two or three minutes. Any questions?