So, now in this set of lectures I am going to discuss the different hypothesis put forth for the basis basic system responsible for the monsoon. So, this is what I am going to consider in the next set of lectures. So, I will first consider the seasonal variation in the pressure and winds at the surface as well as in the lower and upper troposphere associated with the wind and Indian monsoon which has to be understood in terms of the basic system proposed. So, what is the system that we are trying to develop hypothesis for that is what I will look at first. Now, this is something we have seen before this is the seasonal variation of the direction of mean pressure surface wind from July to November and this seasonal variation is what Arabs were concerned about and seasonal variation of the winds you can see this is from the south west in July and from the north east in November. So, these were the south west monsoon and these are the north east monsoon which I will show at the end of this set of lectures to be misnomer. But this is the seasonal variation in the surface wind please notice that there is also a variation in the surface pressure that there is a low pressure belt in July here over what I call the monsoon zone and this low pressure belt shifts southward equatorward in November. Now, if we consider the winds isobars at higher and isobars at higher levels also there is a market change with season. So, now these are the isobars that you see first these are from the re-analysis by the European centre from that we can now generate with the compute to the kind of charts which were we choose to be drawn earlier by hand. So, now what you see here is a low pressure belt over the monsoon zone and this is at 850 HPA which is about 1.5 kilometres above the ground. So, this is at the pressure surface 850 HPA and what you see is pretty much over the surface trough is a trough zone low pressure zone of the surface field over the monsoon zone. Now what are the winds like now this is from IMD Atlas and again you see this has both winds and pressure and actually also temperature, but I am not going to talk much of temperature right now. So, what you see here is again a low pressure belt over the monsoon zone and you can see that south of the low pressure belt are the westerlies and north of the low pressure minimum pressure are easterlies. So you have if this is the line of monsoon trough say minimum pressure then south of it you have westerlies and north of it easterlies as you know from geostrophic this is what would logically happen remember now we are above the planetary boundary layer right. So, there is the main component of wind is geostrophic that is along isobars and therefore you will have westerly winds here and easterly winds here because the high pressure is here low pressure is here geostrophic wind would be this way. So, that the pressure gradient which would be this way from high to low balances the Coriolis force. So, you have westerly winds here and easterly winds here as soon as you come above the boundary layer. Now in the upper troposphere at 200 HPA a high pressure belt is seen exactly more or less over the region where we had a low pressure. So, if we go to 200 HPA and these are the levels of in fact these are levels of the 200 HPA surface. So, there are two ways in which you can show pressure contours either you can show the pressure at a fixed level at the of the atmosphere say 10 kilometers 15 kilometers or whatever or you can take a pressure surface such as 200 HPA and ask the question what is the height of the pressure surface above the sea level and what you find here is that there is a high pressure here which is about at which the height of 200 HPA is more than 12,000 meters. So, this is about 12 kilometers or so and so there is a high pressure belt overlying the low pressure belt. So, if we were to go back see what do we expect see this is a region of cyclonic vorticity if we go to 850 millibar this is a level above the boundary layer this is a region of cyclonic vorticity. So, you expect that the boundary layer will have convergence in this region region of the monsoon zone and air will ascend in this region right, but the air cannot go on ascending it has to eventually descend and for that the troposphere acts as a lead. So, the air that ascends or the air that converges in the boundary layer and ascends has to stop ascending somewhere diverse and then descend in the surrounding region that happens in the upper troposphere. So, you have a cyclonic vorticity here which corresponds to ascent of moisture and when we go to the upper troposphere you have a high pressure zone. So, this high pressure zone is built up because of the ascending air and notice that here the vorticity is actually anti-cyclonic see the wind is stronger here than here. So, the sign of the vorticity is this way so it is clockwise which means it is anti-cyclonic in the northern hemisphere. So, what we can see now is that in fact so what did we see that at 850 millibar 850 HPA I am sorry I keep using the word millibar here at 850 HPA we had cyclonic vorticity and low pressure belt right and then when we went to 200 HPA we had a high pressure belt over the region where there was a low pressure belt at lower levels and the vorticity here is anti-cyclonic. So, what we can consider is the following we can consider the tropopause to be the upper lid of the atmosphere because all the action that we are interested in is in the troposphere right beyond the tropopause you know that the temperature starts increasing with height in the stratosphere. So, we can consider the tropopause to be an upper boundary and there instead of having it is not a solid wall like the surface of land so there we could impose the condition of zero wind stress instead of zero wind which was the no slip condition and in simple model sometimes all tropopause is also considered to be a rigid lid like the bottom boundary. But so in any event we expect irrespective of whether you take it as a free boundary with stress free condition wind stress going to zero or a rigid boundary there will be a boundary layer near the tropopause and where frictional effects will be important. So, just like you have a boundary layer near the surface of earth you will have a boundary layer near the tropopause right and now you saw that at the edge of the boundary layer and since we are talking of boundary layer attached to the upper limit of the atmosphere or the tropopause then the edge of the boundary layer means around 200 HP or so the vorticity is anti-cyclonic right. Since the vorticity is anti-cyclonic this boundary layer will be opposite of what we saw at the surface where the vorticity was cyclonic it will be divergence in the boundary layer. So, in fact we have cyclonic vorticity and above the lower boundary layer and convergence in the boundary layer in the upper boundary layer at the edge of the upper boundary layer the vorticity is anti-cyclonic and you expect divergence to occur there and then when you have divergence in the upper level the air that is divergence diverging in the upper layer will descend in the surrounding region region surrounding the region over which ascent is taking place ok. So, now suppose we look at what is the circulation like when we average over 70 to 90 degrees. So, we are looking at a circulation in a north south vertical plane right we are averaging over an entire longitudinal belt 70 degrees to 90 degrees which we can call the Indian longitudes. Remember 90 degrees is sort of the center of the Bay of Bengal it goes very near almost through Calcutta and 70 degrees is just off the west coast of the peninsula and it goes across the Arabian Sea and then through Gujarat and Rajasthan and so on. So, 70 to 90 we can consider our Indian longitudes suppose we take an average over those ok and then ask the question what how is the air moving in this plane meridional vertical plane or north south vertical plane that is what you see here ok. So, this is the equator this is north ok and what you see is that around the monsoon zone is around here 20, 25 or something like that and what you see is convergence of air in the monsoon zone at the lower level ascent and at upper levels you see divergence and the air that is diverging is descending primarily in the winter hemisphere in our summer the winter hemisphere is the southern hemisphere. So, what you see is a very nice circulation here ok. So, you have the monsoon zone here and ascent of air the air that is ascending moves southward into the southern hemisphere and descends here, but note that the ascent is over a rather broad region which goes almost from 10 south to about 25, 30 north ok. So, this is the vertical circulation associated with the monsoon. So, air converging in the low pressure belt in the lower troposphere ascends and diverges in the upper troposphere this is the rising limb of the circulation. The circulation is completed by sinking of the air transported upwards primarily over the region south of the monsoon zone. So, this is the nature of the beast this is what we are trying to understand the theories of. Now, when we talk of seasonal variation it is also important to look at post monsoon season. So, if we look at post monsoon season we saw the what happens at the sea level in few slides earlier this is at 850 HPA. So, this is above the boundary layer remember earlier in the summer monsoon July the monsoon trough was here and the low pressure belt was on the monsoon zone. Now, you see the lowest pressure is here over the bay and we are getting a southward shift of the low pressure zone for October it is more or less around 10 degrees north the monsoon trough has moved to 10 or 12 degrees north or so. So, the seasonality is seen in the seasonal variation in the location of the low pressure belt this is for October. So, in October at 850 HPA remember that is 1.5 kilometers above the ground so it is above the boundary layer the low pressure belt is seen around 10 north from 60 to 90 east and at 200 HPA a high pressure belt is seen. So, again let us just see the 200 HPA in October and what we see is that over the region where there was a low pressure belt now a high pressure belt is seen here. And what you see is the associated winds now so the system which used to be here has now moved southward with the season. So, now so in October at 850 HPA the low pressure belt is seen around 10 degrees north from 60 to 90 and at 200 HPA a high pressure belt is seen between 5 and 20 so again you know it is absolutely essential that you have a high pressure region in the upper troposphere overlying a low pressure region. So, as to ensure that the air that is ascending throughout the troposphere can actually diverge and then descend. So, if the vertical cell actually extends through the troposphere you have high pressure in the upper troposphere overlying the low pressure exactly like we saw in July except now the entire system has moved southward. So, it is around 10 north or so is the center is serving 22 or 24 north as it was in July. So, this southward displacement of the system relative to its location in the summer monsoon leads to the variation in the direction of the wind. Thus now you can see the winds here this is the these are the winds that you see here and now you can see that the winds are largely from the north or they are northeasterly here and here the winds are westerly over this region. So, associated with the shift of the low pressure belt we have a shift in the winds as well. Now, what are the hypothesis which can explain the seasonal variation that we have seen in all these plus the more important thing the seasonal variation in rainfall as well. Now, we have so to understand those hypotheses again we have to revise a little bit of the fundamentals we learnt in an earlier lecture that the basic source of energy for the atmospheric circulation is the radiation from the sun. The sun is very hot with temperatures around 6000 k and the wavelength of maximum emission is inversely proportional to the temperature of the radiating body. So, the incoming solar radiation is short wave radiation and since the atmosphere is almost transparent to the incoming short wave radiation it gets absorbed primarily at the surface of the earth be it land or ocean thus although the basic source of energy is the sun the atmosphere is actually heated from below whether it is by land or ocean. The Indian monsoon is associated with seasonal variation of the wind direction and rainfall this is how Indian monsoon was defined by seasonal variation of wind direction originally and of course to us it means seasonal variation of rainfall much more so than the variation of wind. We in the monsoonal regions of the world are concerned primarily with the seasonal variation of rainfall. So, now to understand what leads to the seasonal variation of rainfall we have to remind ourselves that ascent of moisture near the surface is a necessary condition for clouds and hence rainfall. Now it is believed that the monsoon is a response of the tropical atmosphere to a spatial variation of the heating that is to say atmosphere is heating heated from below. So at the bottom boundary if the heating is not uniform but rather varies in space this is what we call differential heating from the bottom and monsoon is believed to be a response of the atmosphere to differential heating that is heating which is not uniform at the bottom boundary but rather varies in space. Now the two major hypothesis for the basic system responsible for the monsoon differ in what is considered to be the most important factor for generating the ascent of surface air. So the two major hypothesis differ in what is the differential heating that generates this kind of monsoonal circulation. The first theory which in fact even today is found in textbooks views the monsoon as a gigantic land sea breeze. This is what we were taught in schools as well that according to the first hypothesis the monsoon is a gigantic land sea breeze arising from land ocean contrast in surface temperatures. Now let us consider first how canonical land sea breeze arises before we consider the monsoon as a gigantic land sea breeze. How do we get land sea breeze? Now land sea breeze is what we all experience when we go near to the coast. How why do we get land sea breeze? Because with the intense incoming radiation in the daytime the land gets hotter than the sea in the vicinity. And why is that given the same amount of radiation land gets hotter than sea because the specific heat capacity of land is different from that of the ocean. So while the heat that is incident on land goes to heat up only a thin layer of the soil for the ocean it heats up a much deeper layer of the water. So this means that given the same kind of radiation incident which is at daytime we will have hotter the land becomes hotter than the ocean around the place relative to the sea the land becomes hotter. Now the associated circulation at the surface would be a breeze from the sea to the land called the land breeze why because the land is hotter than the sea. So there will be a low pressure created on land relative to the sea and air will move towards the low pressure and that is the land sea breeze because that is the air moving from sea to land because the pressure decreases from sea to land. This is the standard land sea breeze. Now what happens at night? At night land cools very fast. So wind goes from the land to the sea at night because the sea is warmer and the low pressure would be there. So it is in the reverse direction. Now in the standard land sea breeze what happens to the air that goes to land in the daytime it rises over land over the hot land and then the circulation is completed by divergence of this air and sinking over the cooler sea. So the associated circulation at the surface in the daytime is a breeze from sea to the land which would lead to the ascent of air over the hot land, wind from the land to the sea at higher levels and sinking over the cooler sea. So you get a circulation completed in that at night it reverses. So this is the kind of thing that we get that in the daytime we have at low level circulation from the sea to the land because the land is hotter and the pressure is lower and ascent of air over land then it diverges and because ocean is cooler than land it descends over there. So if land is maintained hotter than ocean this is what we get and this is called the land sea breeze in the daytime it is from sea to land and exactly opposite happens at night which is from land to sea. So the impact of continuous differential heating over land and ocean would be this. Now according to the first hypothesis the primary cause of the monsoon is the differential heating between the continental and oceanic regions. Now in the summer land gets hotter than the surrounding seas for the same incident solar radiation because of the difference in heat capacities of land and ocean. Thus within the same latitudinal belt air over land is much hotter than that over the ocean and you can see that here this is the surface monthly surface temperature climatology this is for July and this is for January. So July means that the sun is overhead in the northern hemisphere and you see the land brighter shades or higher temperatures you can see that the land is much hotter than the ocean. And this is southern hemispheric summer in January where you can see that the Australian continent is much hotter than the surrounding ocean. So it is clearly seen that maximum heating or temperature the surface is in the summer hemisphere. So first of all note that highest temperatures occur in the summer hemisphere which is the northern hemisphere in July and the southern hemisphere in January. And within the same latitudinal belt land gets much hotter than the ocean. So this is the famous land ocean contrast which is supposed to be responsible for the monsoon according to the first hypothesis. And it is amazing that we have a very long history of theorizing about the monsoon over more than 300 years ago. Edmund Halley who is better known for the Halley comet in fact published a paper entitled an historical account of trade winds and monsoons observable in the seas between and near the tropics with an attempt to assign the physical cause of the said winds is very interesting. We are discussing in these lectures physical cause of the monsoon and this is exactly the problem that was addressed by Halley way back in 1686. This was published in the philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Now what did he suggest in this? He suggested that the primary cause of the monsoon was the differential heating between ocean and land. This is what we were taught in school. Now Halley and many scientists after him considered the monsoon to be a gigantic land sea breeze in which ascent of air and hence clouds and rainfall over the heated land is generated by the land ocean temperature contrast. So we remember we have talked about how ascent of surface air in a moist surface moist moist surface air in a tropical atmosphere can lead to clouds and rainfall. So what leads to the ascent was suggested by Halley as the land ocean contrast. So the contrast between land and ocean in the temperatures or in the heating of the atmosphere from below leads to a gigantic air sea breeze sea air breeze land sea breeze in which there is ascent of air over land because now we are not thinking of day and night but rather with season. So in the summer in our summer land is much hotter than the sea around it and therefore we get a land sea breeze but which is a gigantic because we are the contrast is also on the scale of continents and oceans. So over the heated land we get ascent of air which will give clouds and rainfall was the assumption and this is so the land ocean temperature contrast was supposed to be the primary driving force of the monsoon. Now in Halley's time people were not aware of the impact of rotation of the earth Coriolis came later and Coriolis force was included in this discussion. So this is the continent we are looking at and this is the land ocean contrast but we should also mention that we have a very unusual topographic scenario in our country. We have Tibetan plateau to the north which extends through half the troposphere. So not only do we have heating of the subcontinent relative to the ocean around but we also have an what people call an elevated heat source because this mountain is rising through half the troposphere. So it is a very very strong heating that is generated. So people realize that Tibetan plateau would also have an impact and so the kind of schematic of the monsoon driven by land ocean contrast is what you see here that land heats faster than ocean this is land this is the same solar radiation but land heats faster than ocean then there is a topography this is the Tibetan topography which provides elevated heat source and so land heating faster than ocean means lower pressure gets created here and that leads to this is the gigantic land sea breeze. So that leads to moisture from the ocean being sucked in towards the land and that leading to clouds and rain okay heated over the land over the land rises forms convective clouds releases latent heat and you get copious rainfall over land and this is supposed to be the monsoon this is the first model of the monsoon. So as I mentioned before now this land sea gigantic land sea breeze theory was modified a bit by Haley who took into account what Coriolis force would do. So what would happen is rather than simply the wind going from high pressure to low pressure a Coriolis force would make an impact on this wind and because that is important for special scales of thousands of kilometers characterizing the monsoon. So finally from this first hypothesis monsoon is considered to be the response of an atmosphere on a rotating earth to land ocean contrast in surface temperature or heating okay and this implies that the system responsible for the monsoon is special to the monsoonal region right because it is a system that gets generated during the summer over land okay and it reverses during our winter it disappears there is no more rainfall in our winter. So this is if we believe that land ocean contrast is the primary force of the monsoon then the system responsible for the monsoon is very special to the monsoon region okay. Now as I said this theory is even today mentioned in many many textbooks and in important reviews like two I have quoted this is a paper by Webster on elementary monsoon in a book edited by Fine and Stephens in 87 and many books of which I give just one example which gives introduction to circulating atmosphere which has something about the monsoon referred to the monsoon as being generated by land ocean contrast in temperature okay. So what is the hypothesis then according to this hypothesis the low pressure over the land mass over of the monsoon trough which is this low pressure here remember this is the low pressure belt here okay is generated by the heating of the land relative to the ocean. So heating of the subcontinent and of course the Tibetan plateau here leads to the low pressure over here this is what. So seasonality of the winds and the rainfall characteristic of the monsoon are believed to be generated by the land ocean contrast. In order to understand the proposed mechanism we first let us consider a simple case of a fluid subject to differential heating at the bottom boundary okay. So to just understand what happens when you have say atmosphere heated from below just consider the simplest possible scenario in which we forget about the rotation of the earth okay and we consider what happens to a fluid which is heated from below. Now this is a very classic problem this is the response of a fluid to differential heating at the bottom boundary. So you have response of a heating fluid heated from below and this is called the classic Benant convection problem or the so called porridge problem why is it called the porridge problem or in India you could call it the sambar problem is that if the heat is too much the porridge or the sambar will get burnt unless it is stirred okay. So this is why it is called the porridge problem and now I will go on to say what does one mean by heat being too much okay. The nature of the response of the fluid depends on the value of the non dimensional Rayleigh number okay which is a measure of the forcing by the imposed temperature gradient vis-a-vis the viscosity and conductivity of the fluid. We know very well that water when heated from below does not really get burnt because it just convex whereas porridge or the thick sambar heated from below can get burnt. So it has to do with the viscosity of the fluid as well and Rayleigh number is a non dimensional number which determines how large is the heating vis-a-vis the viscosity and conductivity of the fluid. So when viscous effects dominate as for a thick sambar or porridge the Rayleigh number is small and there is no convection that is to say there is no convection of the fluid the fluid is sitting at the bottom as it is and burning because there is too much heat there okay the sambar gets burnt over the hot part of the bottom plate. As the Rayleigh number increases the fluid begins to convict and the classic example is that if you heat water then the hot water at the bottom rises to the top and there is regular convection maintained in the fluid and there is no burning and so on. So what how the fluid reacts depends on the Rayleigh number. Now this actually the equations of this can be readily solved at this point I am not going to bother you with the equations but show you just the solution. So the circulation and the temperature distribution driven by differential heating obtained by numerically solving the governing equations for two values of Rayleigh number are shown in the next slide and what you see here is the temperature in colors and blue to red means hotter and hotter and the fluid is heated from below and it is heated only over this part of the plate okay. It is heated only over red part of the plate and this is the numerical solution to what happens in a steady state it is in fact being cooled on all sides on the sides here so that on the whole the fluid does not get heated up okay there is equilibrium possible. So we have heating from here and what this leads to is ascent of air or whatever fluid it is okay. So low level you get a low pressure region created here fluid moves towards the low pressure region imagine if you like that this is land and this is sea. So the fluid is moving air is moving towards the land rising diverging and in this case descending in the surrounding air where this bottom temperature is colder okay. So we have the kind of circulation that we described qualitatively as land sea breeze here. Now what happens as Rayleigh number increases then the ascending limb becomes narrower and the descending limb becomes broader okay. So as the heating increases visa with the viscous effects and we know that the atmosphere we have seen in the earlier lecture that atmosphere is not very viscous and viscous effects are felt mainly in the boundary layers. So as we go towards the inviscid limit then we see that we get a very very narrow ascending region and a relatively broad descending region. So this is now the basic response of a fluid heated from below remember we are not worried here about the rotation of the fluid okay. So as I mentioned that convection is characterized by rising above the heated region and sinking elsewhere and circulation is completed by fluid converging to the low pressure over the heated region at low level and diverging at the higher levels. So the strength of the circulation increases with the magnitude of differential heating. So keeping the viscosity same if we increase the differential heating which is what implies that Rayleigh number is higher the strength of the circulation is higher stronger ascent here and you see this is the circulation that is driven that you have convergence at low levels air ascending divergence at high levels and air descending in the surrounding region okay. So this is the way the circulation is completed and the strength of the circulation increases with the magnitude of the differential heating. So for very large Rayleigh number the rising zone is much narrower than the region over which it sinks okay. Now so let us go back to the atmosphere we expect that such a strong ascent of moisture forced by differential heating can lead to clouds and rainfall right because once we have strong ascent driven by this differential heating and if the ascent is above the lifting condensation level we can get clouds and rainfall okay. So if the monsoon is indeed a gigantic land sea breeze the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall in space and time should be governed by the variation of the temperature difference between land and ocean okay. So the first hypothesis which is the one we were taught and which is the one which is quoted extensively in many many textbooks namely that the monsoon is driven by land ocean contrast in temperatures this is the way this is the fluid mechanics of that the ascent driven by differential heating and the stronger the differential heating the narrower the ascent and narrower the ascending region and stronger the ascent and more clouds and rainfall. So monsoon is then envisaged as a gigantic land sea breeze which is a response to continents being much much hotter than the oceans okay. Now one thing we have to realize is that if we believe that we have understood what is the physical system responsible for the monsoon we should be able to understand and explain the variability of the monsoon in space and time you remember in the second lecture we talked about how rainfall varies in space and time we saw how rainfall varies within a season from dry spells to wet spells and how it varies in space also for example in the monsoon zone you get much more high rain over the Bay of Bengal and as we go north westwards towards Rajasthan the rainfall decreases right. So we should be able to explain the space time variation of monsoon and particularly rainfall from the understanding of the basic physics system physics of the monsoon or the basic system responsible for the monsoon right this is an absolute requirement. Now what happens is with this first hypothesis which actually gives primacy to land ocean temperature contrast observations of the space time variations of the monsoon over the Indian region are not consistent with this expectation right. What was the expectation that if the monsoon is indeed a gigantic land sea breeze variation in monsoon rainfall will be governed by variation in temperature difference between land and ocean right. For example if the temperature difference decreases what happens if the temperature difference decreases we go to a case which we have seen earlier where the heating becomes less intense right then we expect to get less rain because the ascent is weaker this is from simple minded fluid mechanical theory right. So then we expect the variability to be determined by the land temperature contrast ok. But in fact the observations are inconsistent with this expectation ok and this was first pointed out very eloquently by Simpson in the quarterly journal of Royal Met Society as early as in 1921 ok. In a major review paper called the Southwest Monsoon he says I believe very few educated people would have any difficulties in giving an answer to the question what is the cause of the monsoon ok. They would refer to the high temperature over the land compared with that over the surrounding seas. So this is the main land sea contrast of temperatures would speak of ascending currents of air causing an in draft of sea air towards the interior of the country right because the land is hotter you the air would ascend which he calls ascending currents of air. And this of course is possible because the moist sea air at low levels is coming towards the land in the land sea breeze and it is that air that is ascending. So they would speak of ascending currents of air causing an in draft of sea air towards the interior of the country. It is only when one points out that India is much hotter in May before the monsoon sets in it is only when one points out that India is much hotter in May before the monsoon sets in then in July when it is at its height right. So what he is now saying is in May if the temperature contrast is much higher which it is because the temperatures of land are very very high in May they are of the order of 40 degrees in many places whereas in July the land is much cooler right. So one would expect that there should be more rain in May than in July right. So it is only when one points out that India is much hotter in May before the monsoon sets in before the rainfall begins then in July when it is at its height right. So when you look at temporal variation you have less land ocean contrast in temperature when you have rainfall or draws attention to the fact that the hottest part of India the northwest which is part of Rajasthan gets no rain at all during the monsoon. So if we look at the spatial variation then temperature is highest temperature is highest over Rajasthan in the northwest as you go along the monsoon trough towards the bay of Bengal the temperature decreases. So the land the temperature contrast with ocean is maximum vis-a-vis Rajasthan or the northwestern part whereas it is minimum over the region to the eastern part eastern part of the monsoon trough. But there is no rain at all over Rajasthan and plenty of rain near the bay of Bengal you know over the eastern part Orissa Bengal and so on and so forth. So this again is contrary to an expectation that the variability in space will be determined by variability of land ocean land sea temperature contrast and then he makes a further point or shows by statistics that the average temperature is much greater in years of bad rains than in years of good rains that they begin to doubt whether they know the real cause of the monsoon. Now this fact that the average temperature is much greater in years of bad rains than in years of good rains was something that was stated by Simpson but he did not actually show data for it but I will show you some data this was done by Kothawale and Rup Kumar and what they did was they made averages or composites of all droughts and all excess monsoon seasons okay and they looked at surface temperature anomaly remember anomaly is just the temperature minus the average for the Indian region and did it for surface as well as at higher levels okay and what do they find first look at the surface okay and this is monthly now this is January to December and these are seasons okay. So now notice that for each case hatched corresponds to excess monsoon here and deficit rainfall or droughts are solid years okay. So now when you come here let us first look at JJAS you find that droughts are the solid bars in droughts the surface temperature anomaly is positive whereas in excess rainfall years it is negative okay. So this is exactly what Simpson pointed out that when you have less rainfall the land ocean temperature contrast is more because the surface temperature anomaly is positive land is hotter than average whereas land is colder than average when the rain is high okay. So this is absolutely opposite of what one would expect if the rainfall was governed by land ocean contrast in fact you see the same story for the individual months here this is June July August and September. So you see exactly the same thing all the solids are above positive anomaly all the negatives hatched are negative which means land is colder for excess rain it is interesting that as you go to higher levels like 700 HPA this is 3 kilometers here cloud is already beginning to have an impact on the temperatures. So there you find that all the hatched things are above that is to say at 700 millibars if you have more rain you have higher temperatures if you have droughts you have lower temperature this is again consistent with our understanding of clouds and rainfall and what they do to the temperature and at 200 HPA the same thing remains okay. So this is exactly what Simpson had said that that the surface temperature anomaly see sorry this is Kothawale and Rupkumar but what Simpson had said was that shows by statistics which is what I showed you generated by Kothawale and Rupkumar that the average temperature is much greater in years of bad rains which were the droughts then in years of good rains which is the excess monsoon rain that excess rainfall season that we looked at they begin to doubt whether they know the real cause of the monsoon. So what Simpson has shown is that the you cannot explain the observed space-time variation of rainfall by assuming that the rainfall is related to land ocean temperature contrast okay. So this is a very important statement he made back in 1921 and in fact this is consistent with our experience in the rainy season that days without rain are much hotter than rainy days right. So clearly rather than the land surface temperature determining the amount of rainfall why are they impact on the difference between land and ocean temperature the land temperatures determined by the rainfall are lack thereof. So if you do not have rain it is hotter and if you have rain it is colder. So this in fact shows thus the observation suggests that the land surface temperature varies in response to the variation of rainfall and it is not appropriate to consider land ocean temperature contrast as a cause of the monsoon rains okay beginning with reminding you of what Haley gave as a title to his paper what is the cause of the monsoon winds he said he was more concerned with winds but if we ask what is the cause of the monsoon rains we cannot attribute monsoon rains to land ocean surface temperature contrast okay. This cannot be considered as a cause of the monsoon rains in other words the observations are not consistent with the land ocean hypothesis land land breeze sea breeze hypothesis. So we now have to think of another hypothesis for the system which is responsible for monsoon rains the hypothesis that monsoon is a gigantic land sea breeze does not in fact give results which are consistent with observations of space time variation of monsoon rainfall and this is very simple space time variation variation of monsoon rainfall between droughts and good monsoon seasons variation of monsoon rainfall over space between the eastern part of the monsoon trough zone over Orissa and the eastern regions Visavi Rajasthan and the northwestern region. So land ocean temperature contrast cannot be considered as the primary cause of the monsoon over India and the Indian monsoon cannot be thought of as a gigantic land sea breeze. This is the conclusion we have come to now that we have shown that one hypothesis is wrong we have to show what is right before we can start interpreting what is monsoon variability. So in the next lecture we will look at what I believe is the correct hypothesis for the basic system responsible for the monsoon thank you.


Hi guys. So I'm sorry about the weird lighting, but this is my upstairs hall guest bathroom. It's a first for me filming a YouTube video in the bathroom. Anyway, so this is where I clean my art tools. And this is what started the whole idea of being more environmentally conscious about what I do with my art supplies and disposing of the cleaning water and that sort of thing, even more than I already was. Because the rag, I said in a prior video about the rags, I've been doing the rag thing for years, literally years, a very long time. But I, you know, in the old house we had a utility sink. And to be honest, I wasn't super conscious about what I was doing. I would just dump whatever down the sink. And yeah, that probably was not a good thing. Up here, we don't have a utility sink. So I need to not only keep the bathroom looking nice, but then I thought, you know, it's probably also a good thing to not dump all that stuff down the piping into the sewer system. It's not a good idea. So what can I do differently that I wasn't doing that would help me alleviate some of those issues. So we're going to go over that today. So join me in my bathroom and let's see what I'm doing. And of course, as usual, if you guys have any ideas, something that you do that works for you, do share either here on YouTube in the comments below, or if you're in my Facebook group, a life of art and self expression, I would love for you to share over there. Not everybody has the same setup or the same systems. So what I'm doing might not work for you, but maybe what somebody else is doing will. And so let's share and let's compare notes. All right, let me get everything set up so that I'm not like doing this vlog style. And I'll be right back. Okay, the first thing I'm going to say about this bathroom is it's big. And I'm lucky because it has two sinks, one here, and one there. It also has two under sink cabinets. And this big bank of drawers. So plus this is the guest bathroom. So I'm able to utilize some of the space for my art tool cleaning stuff, like this top drawer. There you go. So I have a couple of trays in here. This one is a cafeteria style tray food tray with a right one of my rags in it. That's generally where I put stuff after I've cleaned it that needs to dry. Right now it has my little cake I've soaked for my watercolor brushes in it because it was wet. I have a couple of old and sort of past kitchen sponges, but they work well for up here. I do have this brush. This is wet. That's why it's there. This finger brush works great for scrubbing some things. I have this. I think it's some sort of makeup blending tool. It not only works well for scraping some of the hard crusty bits out of your paint brushes after they've been soaking, but it works great for getting the paint out from under your fingernails. As does this old pair of tweezers. This is for cleaning makeup brushes. Again, it works great for rubbing your paint brushes against so that you can clean them and then have some spare different kinds of brush cleaning soap. They just live in here and when company comes over, I don't have to worry about moving things around. I can just put close a drawer. I can have a bunch of paint brushes in here drying, but I can just close the drawer. While they're soaking, where am I keeping them? Well, when company comes over I hide everything, which I'll show you at the end, but this is my jar. I've had this jar. It's from the old house. It has about, I don't know, that much water in it with a couple tablespoons of Murphy's oil soap. The brush is sitting here and soaked sometimes for too long, but anyway. This is one of my famous rags because I'm not going to use the fancy kitchen towels. I mean bathroom towels. So when I need to dry things on, I have a rag usually right here. And then this is one of my two buckets. I'm going to get my tripod so I can get both hands in here and show you what I do and I'll be right back. Okay. So this is your standard five gallon bucket with a lid and I actually have a spare one under the sink, which I'll show you in a minute.  This needs to actually be dumped. And I also put usually, I need to put a new one, a coffee filter. Why the coffee filter? Because the holes in the metal strainer, while they're small, which is why I use the metal one over plastic. The holes are smaller. They're not quite small enough to catch all of the paint particles that I want to catch. And of course, because I'm on camera, I can't do this. There we go.  I want to try to catch as much as I can and you'll see by how dyed this paper towel is, and I don't know if you can catch it on camera, but there's little pieces of granules of pigments and minerals on the coffee filter. I want to try to catch as much of that as I can before it goes into the bucket. I'm going to put this on my rag up there. So when I'm dumping out my paint water or the water the brushes are soaking in or the water I've washed the brushes in, it all goes through here and into the bucket below. This is really gross, but this is actually a clean day and that's what it looks like. I don't know if you can see that on camera or not. Now, when the bucket gets to be about halfway or so full, because if it gets more than that, it's hard for me to get it down the stairs. If it's been sitting here for a while like this has and while the top well cloudy is relatively clean and sludge free for lack of a better word, I can dump the top layer of water down the toilet and not the sludge that's at the bottom and I can just leave the sludge in the bottom. In the wintertime I can, after a while you get a lot of sludge in the bottom and in the wintertime I will take a cardboard box and put it into a giant plastic garbage bag and I'll dump the sludge into the garbage bag and just let it freeze and soak up in the cardboard and then put it in the garbage, but that way it's not going into the water system. If I only have this much water, I won't put any of it down the toilet. I will just take the whole thing and do that same thing and dump it in the cardboard in the plastic bag and just let it absorb the cardboard, absorb it and then dispose of it that way. You also can let, if you live in a warm place or a place where it's summertime, you can let this out in the sun and let the water evaporate until there's just dried crusty bits at the bottom and then pick the crusty bits out and dispose of them, which is why I have two buckets. So I have a spare bucket under the sink and it fits under the sink and when one is outside with the water evaporating, I can just change out the lid and I can have this one up here, disposing of more water. Now, in an effort to keep the sink clean when I am cleaning, I have these. This is more just more random like brush cleaning soap, different kinds. I generally just use Murphy's Oil soap, but I've been gifted a few other brands and so I've been trying them out. So these again are small plastic paint buckets. These are from the hardware store or Walmart, Fred Mayer or something like that. You can get these anywhere, a couple different sizes. These both fit in the sink under the faucet and so after I've dumped this water in here, I put the brushes in here. I wash the brushes in here. I don't just wash the brushes in the sink and let all the random bits that are falling off the paintbrush go down the drain and don't even do that. As I'm washing the brushes, of course this will fill up and get gross and I will dump it down into the bucket and then I'll keep washing brushes. At some point, the brush is relatively clean and then I do give it a clear rinse without a bucket in the sink and that works. But I do capture as much of the paint sludgy gross water into my five down bucket as I can. I don't want any of it if I can help it to go down the drain. So and these are all things from the hardware store. This big blue thing, in case you're wondering, I showed you the little pink one for cleaning makeup brushes. This is the same thing. You can get these at Amazon. You can get them on Wish or AliExpress. You probably can get them at Ulta or the Ford, but you're probably going to pay more. They were really cheap. These are from Wish. They were really cheap. As I said, I also use coffee filters to line the five gallon bucket and metal strainers in the lids of the bucket. This is a set of three different sizes. I think the one that's in here is the large one. These are from Amazon, but you can get them at Walmart or sometimes the Dollar Tree. I would not cut the hole in the lid until you have one to put in there, but you want this fine mesh metal strainer because the holes are smaller and the strainer itself is going to catch a lot of stuff and then the coffee filter will catch more. That being said, don't just pick up one, pick up two or more because you want to back up because after a while, if you can see that, they start to look like that. And at some point, to be honest, you just get tired of cleaning it. That being said, you could pull the metal out of here and probably reuse it in some mixed media. It's got all these wonderful paint chips and stuff to stuff to it. If you like grungy mixed media, I mean, it's kind of cool. It won't go to waste. When I do have a company coming over. Oh, and by the way, this is another nylon cutting board, and this is for laying the brushes on. And remember before I said I have this. So sometimes with your brushes, you have chunks of things in the brush that don't come out from just soaking them in water. So you need to lay the brush flat on a board and then you need to scrape the chunks out. That's what this board is for. And that's what this is for. And again, I do that over one of the smaller plastic buckets. But when company is coming over, this fits under the sink. And if I do happen to have both buckets upstairs, one of them will fit under this sink and the other one fits under the other sink. And I do make sure that I wipe down the sink I do use up here, up here, here, here. Before I'm done, I don't leave any like dry paint blobs in the sink or anything like that. Getting down on the floor is easy. Getting up is harder. I do make sure before I'm done, any splatters or anything I've gotten on the sink are wiped clean. And so it stays clean and pristine. And when guests come over, again, the two buckets will fit under the sinks. This jar will also fit under the sink as well. The rag can go in the drawer. And then the guests never know otherwise, honestly, unless they get nosy. So what do you do to keep your tools and supplies clean that's environmentally friendly, that we're not creating lots of extra waste if we can help it? And if we do have things that can't be recycled that are waste, what do you do with them? There, of course, is lots of mixed media collagey things you can do. But is there anything else you can do? If you can think of something, I would appreciate you leaving it in the comments below. I'm no expert, as I've said, by any stretch. This is what I do. Maybe you do something different. I'd love to hear about it either here in the comments below or if you're a member of my Facebook group, a life of art and self expression, I'd love to hear it over there. If you want to follow me on social media or support the free content here or on Facebook, you can click on my link tree link. You'll find me on Instagram there. I should say you'll find the link for Instagram, the link for Twitter, my Etsy shop, the Amazon store, the tip jar, Patreon, all that stuff. So check it out. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. Hit that little bell icon if you want to get notifications for new videos. And the most important thing, go out and have a great day and do something nice for yourself because you deserve it. I'll see you later. Bye, guys.


What's up everybody? Jason here for jaspyscasebreaks.com fills the mixer here with these win-five spots in the mixer 2020 prism hobby one pack break Round of teams number six. So again 30 total spots We first do the pack breaker prism hobby only the inserts numbered cards hits will ship member no veteran base And then we'll randomize customer names and teams of course to see what teams you guys get Then at the end of the break we'll randomize all 30 customer names again And top five names will win a spot each in the lords of the swing baseball mixer It's around my customer names teams to the break and come back here at the end randomize the customer names the original customer names here Top five get into the mixer. So let's roll it and we got ourselves a one out of three for four times one I Know I got Jerry Judy Scott. He's so cheap like in fancy right now three Joseph Done a cord one two three Dodgers down to the Phillies So there you go. Just a quick glance Joseph got the Dodgers Sean Dastros so many Yankees John McCall got the White Sox There you go Reds Matthew really quick. Let's think of what you got. All right. Here you go Travis Demerits at 35 JD Martinez a little dust in me now. Let's see who gets into the mixer guys. Good luck Dutch roller here's a list of customer names roll it again, and it's snake eyes two times. Wow one Two Ryan Redman you are in so men you are in Joseph you're in Andy you're in And John McCall, I know that's like our second. That's our third snake. I have a second time for a filler So they go top five are in congratulations now coming up next is the This one


From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. Despite all the chatter about cloud repatriation and the exorbitant cost of cloud computing, customer spending momentum continues to accelerate in the post-isolation economy. If the pandemic was good for the cloud, it seems that the benefits of cloud migration remain lasting in the late stages of COVID and beyond. And we believe this stickiness is going to continue for quite some time. We expect I ask revenue for the big four hyperscalers to surpass $115 billion in 2021. Moreover, the strength of AWS specifically, as well as Microsoft Azure remain notable. Such large organizations showing elevated spending momentum as shown in the ETR survey results is perhaps unprecedented in the technology sector. Hello, everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we'll share some fresh July survey data that indicates accelerating momentum for the largest cloud computing firms. Importantly, not only is the momentum broad-based, but it's also notable in key strategic sectors namely AI and database. There seems to be no stopping the cloud momentum. I'm certainly plenty of buzz about the cloud tax, so-called cloud tax, but other than wildly-assumptive valuation models and some pockets of anecdotal evidence, you don't really see the supposed backlash impacting cloud momentum. Our forecast calls for the big four hyperscalers, AWS, Azure, Alibaba and GCP to surpass $115 billion, as we said, in IS revenue this year. The latest ETR survey results show that AWS Lambda has retaken the lead among all major cloud services tracked in the dataset as measured in spending momentum. This is the service with the most elevated scores. Azure overall, Azure Functions, VMware Cloud on AWS and AWS overall also demonstrate very highly elevated performance, all above that of GCP. Now, impressively, AWS's momentum in the all-important Fortune 500, where it has always showed strength, is also accelerating. One concern in the most recent survey data is that the on-prem clouds and so-called hybrid platforms, which we had previously reported as showing an upward spending trajectory, seemed to have cooled off a bit, but the data is mixed and it's a little bit too early to draw firm conclusions. Nonetheless, while hyperscalers are holding steady, the spending data appears to be somewhat tepid for the on-prem players, particularly for their cloud. We'll study that further after ETR drops its full results on July 23rd. Now, turning our attention back to AWS, the AWS cloud is showing strength across its entire portfolio and we're going to show you that shortly. In particular, we see notable strength relative to others in analytics, AI and the all-important database category. Aurora and Redshift are particularly strong, but several other AWS database services are showing elevated spending velocity, which will quantify in a moment. All that said, Snowflake continues to lead all database suppliers in spending momentum by a wide margin, which again, will quantify in this episode. But before we dig into the survey, let's take a look at our latest projections for the Big Four hyperscalers in IaaS. As you know, we track quarterly revenues for the hyperscalers. Remember, AWS and Alibaba, IaaS data is pretty clean and reported in their respective earnings reports. Azure and GCP, we have to extrapolate and strip out a lot of the apps and other certain revenue to make an apples to apples comparison with AWS and Alibaba. And as you can see, we have the 2021 market exceeding $115 billion worldwide. That's a torrid 35% growth rate on top of 41% in 2020 relative to 2019. Aggressive, yes, but the data continues to point us in this direction. And until we see some clearer headwinds for the cloud players, this is the call we're making. AWS is perhaps losing a share point or so, but it's so large that its annual incremental revenue is comparable to Alibaba's and Google's respective cloud business in total, IaaS business in total. The Big Three US cloud companies all report at the end of July, while Alibaba is mid August. So we'll update these figures at that time. Okay, let's move on and dig into the survey data. We don't have the data yet on Alibaba and we're limited as to what we can share until ETR drops its research update on the 23rd. But here's a look at the net score timeline in the Fortune 500 specifically. So we filter the Fortune 500 for cloud computing. You got Azure in the yellow, AWS in the black and GCP in blue. So two points here stand out. First, is that AWS and Microsoft are converging. And remember, the customers who respond to the survey, they probably include a fair amount of application software spending in their cloud answers. So it favors Microsoft in that respect. And GCP, second point is showing notable deceleration relative to the two leaders. And the green call out is because this cut is from an AWS point of view. So in other words, GCP declines are a positive for AWS, so that's how it should be interpreted. Now let's take a moment to better understand the idea of net score. This is one of the fundamental metrics of the ETR methodology. Here's the data for AWS. So we use that as a reference point. Net score is calculated by asking customers if they're adding a platform new. That's the lime green bar that you see here. In the current survey, they're asking, are you spending 6% or more in the second half relative to the first half of the year? That's the forest green. They're also asking, is spending flat? That's the gray, or are you spending less? That's the pink, or are you replacing the platform, i.e. repatriating? So not much spending going on in replacements. Now in fairness, 1% of AWS is half a billion dollars. So I can see where some folks would get excited about that, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a sliver. So again, we don't see repatriation in numbers. Okay, back to net score. Subtract the reds from the greens and you get net score, which in the case of AWS is 61%. Now just for reference, my personal subjective elevated net score level is 40%. So anything above that is really impressive based on my experience. And to have a company of this size be so elevated is meaningful. Same for Microsoft, by the way, which is consistently well above the 50% mark in net score in the ETR surveys. Think about it, that's even more impressive perhaps than AWS because it's triple the revenue. Okay, let's stay with AWS and take a look at the portfolio and the strength across the board. This chart shows net score for the past three surveys. Serverless is on fire. By the way, not just AWS, but Azure and GCP functions as well. Well, look at the AWS portfolio. Every category is well above the 40% elevated red line. The only exception is Chime. And even Chime is showing an uptake. And Chime is met if you've ever used Chime. Every other category is well above 50% net score, very, very strong for AWS. Now, as we frequently reported, AI is one of the four biggest focus areas from a spending standpoint, along with cloud, containers, and RPA. So it stands to reason that the company with the best AI and ML and the greatest momentum in that space has an advantage because AI is being embedded into apps, data, processes, machines everywhere. This chart compares the AI players on two dimensions, net score on the vertical axis and market share or presence in the data set on the horizontal axis. For companies with more than 15 citations in the survey, AWS has the highest net score. And what's notable is the presence on the horizontal axis. Databricks is a company we're high on, also shows elevated scores above both Google and Microsoft, who are showing strength in their own right. And then you can see data IQ, data robot, Anaconda and Salesforce with Einstein all above that 40% mark. And then below you can see the position of SAP with Leonardo, IBM Watson, and Oracle, which is well below the 40% line. All right, let's look at the all important database category for a moment. And we'll first take a look at the AWS database portfolio. This chart shows the database services in AWS's arsenal and breaks down the net score components with the total net score superimposed on top of the bars. Point one is Aurora is highly elevated with a net score above 70%. That's due to heavy new adoptions. Redshift is also very strong, as are virtually all AWS database offerings with the exception of Neptune, which is the graph database. RDS, DynamoDB, ElastiCache, DocumentDB, Timestream and Quantum Ledger database all show momentum above that all important 40% line. So while a lot of people criticize the fragmentation of the AWS data portfolio and their right tool for their right job approach, the spending metrics tell a story and that the strategy is working. Now let's take a look at the Microsoft database portfolio. There's a story here similar to that of AWS. Azure SQL and Cosmos DB, Microsoft's NoSQL distributed database are both very highly elevated, as are Azure database for MySQL. Postgres and MariaDB. Azure Cache for Redis and Azure for Cassandra. Also, Microsoft is giving customers a lot of options, which is kind of interesting. You know, we've often said that Oracle strategy, because we already think about Oracle, they're building the Oracle database cloud. We've said Oracle strategy should be to not just be the cloud for Oracle databases, but be the cloud for all databases. I mean, Oracle's got a lot of specialty capability there, but it looks like Microsoft is beating Oracle to that punch, not that Oracle is necessarily going there, but we think it should to expand the appeal of its cloud. Okay, last data chart that we'll show, and then this one looks at database disruption. The chart shows how the cloud database companies are doing an IBM Oracle Teradata and Cloud Error accounts. The bars show the net score granularity as we described earlier, and the ETR callouts are interesting. So first, remember, this is in an AWS context. So with 47 responses, ETR rightly indicates that AWS is very well positioned in these accounts with a 68% net score. But look at Snowflake, it has an 81% net score, which is just incredible. And you can see Google database is also very strong in the high 50% range, while Microsoft, even though it's above the 40% mark, is noticeably lower than the others, as is MongoDB with presumably Atlas, which is surprisingly low, frankly. But back to Snowflake. So the ETR callout stresses that Snowflake doesn't have as strong a presence in the legacy database vendor accounts yet. Now, I'm not sure I would put Cloud Error in the legacy database category, but okay, whatever. Cloud Error, they're positioning CVP as a hybrid platform, as are all the on-prem players with their respective products and platforms. But it's going to be interesting to see because Snowflake has flat out said it's not straddling the cloud and on-prem, rather it's all in on cloud. But there is a big opportunity to connect on-prem to the cloud and across clouds, which Snowflake is pursuing, that ladder, the cross-cloud, the multi-cloud. And Snowflake is betting on incremental use cases that involve data sharing and federated governance, while traditional players, they're protecting their turf at the same time trying to compete in cloud native and of course across cloud. I think there's room for both, but clearly as we've shown, cloud has the spending velocity and a tailwind at its back. And AWS, along with Microsoft, seem to be getting stronger, especially in the all-important categories related to machine intelligence, AI, and database. Now, to be an essential infrastructure technology player in the data era, it would seem obvious that you have to have database and or data management intellectual property in your portfolio, or you're going to be less valuable to customers and investors. Okay, we're going to leave it there for today. Remember, these episodes, they're all available as podcasts wherever you listen, all you got to do is search breaking analysis podcast and please subscribe to the series. Check out ETR's website at ETR.plus, ETR.plus. We also publish a full report every week on Wikibon.com and SiliconANGLE.com. You can get in touch with me, David.Valante at SiliconANGLE.com. You can DM me at Dvalante. Or you can hit me up on our LinkedIn post. This is Dave Valante for theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Have a great week, stay safe, be well, and we'll see you next time.


Early fibrotic interstitial lung abnormalities, EFILas, are common finding on chest CT scans in patients aged 45 to 75 years old. These abnormalities are characterized by reticular or ground-glass opacities, but not traction bronchiectasis or honeycombing. In this study, it was found that these abnormalities are associated with increased risk of death from any cause, as well as radiologically proven progression of the abnormality. Additionally, elevated levels of monocytes in the blood were also associated with progression of the abnormality. This article was authored by Andrew Akiah, Paul Leon, Emily Fraser, and others.


Hi, she was seven. I'm back. So this video is going to be about those women who you see on Facebook on social media Who talk about you know, oh Well, what do I bring to the table? What as Women do we bring the table to the table for men? And how can we be better women for men and blah blah blah blah blah blah? That's a gimmick, okay? I'm gonna tell y'all straight up men. I know y'all watch That's a gimmick women that write stuff like that are looking for attention from so-called good men, okay? This is kind of like bait and this is kind of like oh, I'm really a good woman I'm gonna do all the things that You know a good man would want I'm putting myself out there and agreeing with these guys who are Looking for something more and women And I'm trying to attract this kind of guy because it's never those kind of women who are married It's never those women who are in long-term relationships. It's always those single women who are looking for those kind of guys that you know Want women to bring stuff to the table to me this you might as well just Say free room and board You might as well tell them hey, I will take care of you you might as well tell them Hey, I will go out. I will work. I will pay all the bills. You just I just need a man You might as well go tell them that because that's exactly the type of man that you are Attracting when you post silly stuff like that and argue with women who have high standards or standards period, okay? now There's been plenty of times where people have you know post it stuff up that I have said and will You know trash me for it and these are women But then at the same time two weeks later on their Facebook account They're talking about how they've been screwed over by men by this by that so It don't bother me. I'm just saying Those type of women are fishing for good men But they're also lowering their standards to do it Because they think that's what men want to hear and as soon as that man gets in that relationship all of a sudden she wants to develop standards in The middle of the relationship and then then she wonders why the relationship doesn't work out Then she comes to me. Well, how can I get my man to be more about motivated? How can I get him to get up and go get a job? How can I get him to want to do more? How can I get him to want to have? better things in life Well, when you put out statements on Facebook that women need to bring more to the table and we need to support our men and we need to Help them when they're down and you put that kind of stuff out on Facebook And then you come to me asking me two weeks later how to get your man motivated and wanting to do stuff The problem is not your man The problem is you and what you're attracting and what you're saying is okay and what you are fishing for Okay, when you put those kind of statements out Men automatically say oh she has low standards. She doesn't care. She's gonna do for me I don't need to do as much as I would have to do for another woman with her She she's gonna be understanding when I tell her I can't do this. This isn't that because she believes In those values, so I'm gonna go I'm gonna you know date her for a while until she realizes I'm not changing at all Sorry y'all had a phone call so Yes, so when it gets to the middle of the relationship now she wants more now She wants him to have a good job. She wants him to career to have a career She wants him to go to school. She wants him to marry her. She wants him to be the provider She wants him to you know, take care of this and take care of that But when she advertised herself for a man on Facebook to get attention She was calling out to all men who weren't about nothing. Okay, so you can't have it both ways Lowering your standards on social media to attract a man.  Okay, because that's what you sit for. That's what you advertise for, okay? Now y'all can drag my name through the mud or whatever. I don't care But I don't have those problems. Why because I set my standards high. I leave them high and I don't bring them down for nobody Why because I have to live with myself. Okay, I have to live with myself in the end and I choose to keep them high and It's paid off. It has paid off It and ask any woman who keeps their standards high. It will eventually pay off. Okay?  But you know a lot of people say, you know, it's worth the wait to find a good one, okay? And another thing ladies when you get into a relationship Tell them what you want in the beginning. Don't wait to the middle Don't wait to almost the end where he's about to leave you Tell him upfront what you want. Okay, don't say, oh, well, we're just gonna see where this goes Or this is a friendship or we're just having fun You tell him exactly what you want before you even sleep with him the first time you say look I am in this relationship to see where it goes. I'm looking for a serious future with someone. I want to build I want marriage. I want kids. I want home a house. I want, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah If you're not on the same page right now, please let me know because This is what I'm holding you to this is what you're committing to right now before we sleep together This is what you're gonna be committing to. Okay, we're gonna start making future plans together I'm gonna get my life going if you want to play around if you just want friends with benefits You need to tell me now so I can adjust my thought pattern And get on the same, you know wavelength as you and I know how to handle you, you know And they'll be like, whoa, I'm not ready for all that yet One would just back it up and be friends You know, if you need, you know, if you just want to hang out call me sometime That right there will let you know if he's gonna be serious or you know Just wants to play around if you put all that weight on his shoulders right in the beginning He has a choice to waste your time Or to back off, you know, and if you hold him to stuff that he agreed to in the beginning of the relationship Then you know when you start having problems you can go back look you already said you were gonna do this This isn't it if you're not about it.  Okay. I'm just telling y'all Never get emotionally attached to anyone and tell your Mary why Not a hundred percent anyway, let it go 50% or you can take them or leave them Okay, lots of women they go overboard.  I always have Always let them know they are replaceable. Okay, and I always keep Your mental and your emotional At that same level that they are replaceable.  Okay I'm just telling y'all it's easy to fall into when you're young But after a couple times you're gonna be like, okay, I know what you're about. Let's move it along You know, you're not you're not right for me. Let's just have this Date and then I'll probably never call you again. Okay. No, no the kind of me in your dating Know that if he's a player know that if he's gonna take you seriously Don't listen to his words watch his actions if he's done more than he's talked about That's a good man. If he's talked about more than he's done. He's not about anything. Let him go. Okay.   No And I'm just using that as an example because a lot of women will bargain themselves cheap To a man who won't even have a lot of money They have to have the bargain chick because they don't have anything, you know, they can't they can't provide for a Woman with high standards, so they're gonna find the one with the lowest self-esteem The one bringing the most to the table The one who is Desperate and the one who cries for attention on social media. Those are their targets. Okay So I'm just let y'all know I know we live in the age of you know Social networking and there are certain rules and there are certain things that you need to abide by when you are trying to date Online or attract men's attention online. Don't attract those wrong men attention. That's just that's just a waste of your time and Six months later five months later, you're gonna be crying. Okay. I don't care how spiritually aligned or connected you are to somebody That's not as you know, all that is is knowledge anybody can read a book and get some spiritual knowledge.  Okay The only thing that you should be offering is yourself as a total package Okay, if they don't want that they want more if they want you to do a bc and D or you're not qualified then You know Find someone who wants you as you are You don't have to bring all the extra stuff. Okay, the right man won't need all that extra stuff They'll already have it taken care of on their side.   I Have all my priorities in the correct order. This is what I want You don't you don't have to do much because I've already done everything, you know So this is the type of man that a lot of women will attract who aren't bargaining themselves off cheap. Okay, and I'm not talking about like a price. I'm talking about standards. Okay You always see the woman with the highest standards with the best guy The lowest standards got the worst guy. It's common sense. Okay, so ladies a lot of people Ask me, how do you have your how do you have so much confidence? What is it about you? That gives you that confidence to speak that truth and do this this and that because I know what I want. Okay, you go up To a restaurant and you look on the menu.  Something that you don't like if you have the money in your pocket to pay for anything on this menu Are you gonna order, you know, the cheapest thing on there? No, you can get what you want. Okay, if you're gonna play the game, you might as well play it to win what you want. Okay confidence is basically No fear of rejection. Okay, I don't have fear being rejected because I know right after that one is another one coming Right after that one is another one coming right after that one is another one coming Why because that's what men do. Okay fear if you should not fear rejection You should fear in and out with the wrong man. Okay You should fear in and out with a broke man who can't do another worry. That's what you should fear Rejection is nothing, you know, I don't care. I've rejected so many people Until I got to the one that met the qualifications, you know, you can't just settle for anything Just cuz somebody tells you you're cute. Oh, you're special. Oh this show me. I'm special. Okay Where's the gift that says I'm special What is the big grand thing that you have done to show me that I'm special words are nothing I need to see Okay, so when your man can show you something When you don't have to make excuses for him When he has prepared a way for you already You don't have to do much but just show up and be there That's good guy. Okay Don't go fishing for men on Facebook Lowering your standards pretending to be holier than now and then six months later telling him you want ABC and D Don't do that. Okay. That's why you always get played because you are false advertising yourself at a bargain rate And then just like those phone companies and those cable companies you want to raise the rate after a few months now Okay, you can't start off a bundle package with a free You know unlimited data and then two months later you got to pay for This much data if you use it up. No, you can't do that.  There's always somebody waiting to buy you out There's always some next guy who's waiting for you to break up with this guy. There's always that guy who's saying, okay Well Now you want this this and that but before you didn't want anything You just want to be a good woman and support your man and bring stuff to the table to him Now you want to get married now you want to, you know, have a joint savings account now You want to go on vacation and build a future? No, I'm now I'm going to spring. Hi, you know You can't start off like that. You got to come correct. Okay, ladies


Oh hi everybody, so I'm here to talk about an Argentinean solar, which hopefully you rather buy that one instead of a Chilean solar. So our name is Neo Lithium and we are essentially developing a new lithium solar called Tres Quebradas, a 3Q lithium project. A little bit of cautionary statements and this is why we think Neo Lithium is the right place to be in. First of all, we're pure play. We have one asset, which is in Catamarca in Argentina, it's a new discovery which we essentially discovered in December of 2015. We own 100% of the project, there's nobody around us and the complex and it's fully permitted into feasibility. We fast-tracked this asset, we've raised over 45 million dollars, we put back almost now 9 to 10 million dollars into the project, we've reconditioned the road, we have ICAMP, a lab, we already have a pilot pond which is evaporating as we speak and we have extremely and very encouraging results on process studies which we can do regular evaporation, not with any new processes and we also put out some press releases with extremely good drilling results which are one of the highest in Argentina and one of the highest in the world in terms of brine. We intend to have a resource in the next, let's say, a couple weeks, I believe, and a new PEA in Q3 of this year. We believe we have the right asset, we not only have high grade but we also have the lowest combined impurities of any known solar. When you look at brines, you need to look at two things, grade and also impurities and we have both. We have a large footprint, you need that because if you don't have that, you cannot be able to have a big enough resource to make this thing happen and be economic and, of course, the people are one of the most important parts here. Our CEO, Waldo Perez was the CEO and founder of Lithium Americas. He took Kaucharisalar and Lithium Americas up to feasibility. He is the CEO of our company. Our chairman, Konstantin, obviously, has opened a lot of doors in Asia and Europe in order for us to have strategic partners come in and help us finance the project and the local team that's currently working with us is basically the same team that was in Lithium Americas and we've already hired three people from SQM as well so that are have experience in the Lithium side and obviously operations. In terms of the structure, we have about 89 million shares, 105 fully eluded, with fully financed feasibility and we raised $45 million. We have a good institutional base with 40% and the insider's on about 20. So this is where we are. We are at the bottom of the Lithium Triangle. We're essentially about 10 kilometers from the border with Argentina. Our project essentially goes up to the border. On a straight line, we're about 40 kilometers to the Maricunga Salar and we're extremely close to Argentina to achieve it. In fact, we are one of the closest salars, even though we're in the Argentina side, to the port in Chile. There's no inhabitants of our original communities in the area, I'm sorry. And as I said, we have 100% ownership of our complex. This is a picture looking north on a salar. One of the unique aspects of our complex is that we have three brine lakes. It looks like a lake, a water lake, but it's not water. It's brine, essentially now crop of our resource. If you look south, this is what our salar looks like. It's a bit more rocky-ish than your regular salar, which is very flat. This is what we've done so far. This is the camp that we build on site. It's about 60 people a year-round with solar panels and diesel generation that we're able to assist over winter if need be for many months. Here we go. This is the road that we've upgraded to the camp. It's about a 60-kilometer road from the highway to the project. These are the solar panels and diesel generators. We have a state-of-the-art weather monitoring station, which is extremely important to understand the weather conditions in the area. You can essentially tap into other salars to understand what the evaporation rates and the weather are during the area, but in this case, we have to put one there in order to provide enough information to build your definitive feasibility study, which is next year. This is a lab full chemical lab that we have on site to test all the evaporation ponds and some of the salar sampling. We have wells and pump tests already within the salar, and we already built a pile of evaporation ponds. In fact, they've been evaporating since January of this year. This is a satellite view of our salar or our complex on the north. The black spot on the north is the lake that I showed a picture of before. Then you have a transition period, transitions part of the salar, which is light blue, and then the white is the entire salar, then another lake, another salar, and another lake at the bottom. Another unique aspect of the salar is that we have geothermal springs coming into the top, as you see in the north and on the west side of the salar, that the top or the northern geothermal springs bring in cleansing agents, mostly calcium, and on the west side, it's bringing high-grade lithium, meaning we get up to almost 1,000 milligrams per liter in some spots, but on average we're 500 milligrams per liter constantly, and that is 500 liters per second of high-grade lithium. On the west and on the north, we get about 700 to 800 liters per second of rich calcium geothermal springs coming into the salar on the north. We haven't explored yet the ones on essentially the middle one. We are obviously advancing the project very rapidly because of the experience of our team. We're currently at a resource definition stage. We'll have a resource in the next couple of weeks, and we'll have a PEA later this year in Q3. This is a picture just to give you an idea of how one of the hot springs are. This is the hot spring that brings in high-grade lithium. I'm not sure if I have a pointer here, but there we go. This right here are cars, and over here you see some people walking.  This is what with geochemistry. This is what we did back in April to establish what we thought was our grade and our impurities. We did about 250 samples, almost 300, I'm sorry, and that helped us understand what we had. This is the results. All the black dots here are the sampling work. On the left-hand side, you'll see the high-grade lithium on the north, on the blue, and on the green, you see the high-grade potassium also on the north. Now, obviously, that's the grade. We have on the northern target, the average grade there is about 800 milligrams per liter, and importantly, as well, on the northern target, you see the white color that is very low on the left-hand side is the magnesium-to-lithium ratio, and on the right-hand side is the sulfate ratio, very low on both the northern target. So obviously, again, you not only need to look about grade, you also need to understand the critical impurities. After that, we did some geophysics to understand where we should focus our drilling program. We did about 55 kilometers, nine geophysical lines, and this showed us, as you see on the right-hand side of the map, where we did those lines. We expanded what we call the northern target to 20 kilometers instead of 14 kilometers, and we saw, in this case, we saw a brine up to almost 200 meters. What we've done so far, we've already finished, but it's 12 platforms, 24 holes, about 2,500 meters drilled, and a combination of diamond drills and rodeoes. This is a bit of geology. The interesting part about this is that we found two types of aquifers. We have an upper aquifier and a lower aquifier. The upper aquifier is about 70 meters up to 70 meters deep on average, and then there's a halide core there without not much porosity, and then again, at about 120 meters, we have a lower aquifer that is still open. So we haven't even found the bottom of that yet. These are the drilling results. As you can see, the drilling confirmed the high grade on the north side with up to almost 1,000 milligrams per liter, 600, 700, and so forth. What we did is that we expanded our drilling down to what we call the southern target, where sampling work, about a meter, gave us grades of almost maybe 200 milligrams per liter. But when we drilled, we found four to five or even 600 milligrams per liter at death, still open. So that expanded again, yet again, are essentially our targets to the south. And by the way, the impurity ratios did not change either on the drilling. Maintained very low on both magnesium and sulfate. Pumping porosity tests, we also obviously did this for the calculation of the resource, which is imminent. These are some of the results. Essentially, what we found here is extraordinary in terms of the porosity and pump test. We believe we have more than enough to produce from our solar. And essentially, some of the results that we've gotten, you don't see those anywhere in Argentina, and they're comparable to Atacama solar. They're on the top there. Okay, so we also did process studies. And one of the reasons we were able to do this is that we have a lake or a reservoir or a brine outcropping. Without that, we wouldn't be able to do the process as we could. You need to bulk sample that and send it to labs. So we did this and the results came back with extremely positive that we are able to essentially have a very simple evaporation technology to produce lithium. The recovery of 25 times per hectare is comparable to any solar. And I think somebody mentioned yesterday that salars, in terms of the brine, takes up to 18 months to two years to evaporate. That's wrong. I just want to make sure that everybody understands that our salar takes 8 to 12 months. So and it's a continuous batch process, not just one batch every 18 to 24 months. It's continuous batch after eight months. This is a comparison based solely on the sampling work that we've done. We are the highest grade in Argentina and we are the fourth highest grade in the world in terms of brine. This tells you a little bit about the impurities. As you can see, we're at the bottom corner, the red dot. This tells you all things being equal, where your cost is going to be. So you want to be on the zero zero. However, the majority of the salars are way off that. So the producing ones are in the 10 range there on the sulfate. And then anything beyond 10 on the magnesium side almost essentially very difficult to put in operation because of the cost associated with taking the magnesium out. There's a little bit of our history timeline and track record. We've moved very fast. What I want you to take away from this slide is that we just discovered this property in December of 2015 and we're about to issue a resource statement next couple of weeks and we'll have a PA by Q3. And we made it a race, we're fully financed to feasibility. There's no more dilution. A bit of the timeline and this essentially just tells you about what's going to happen over the next little while. We're going to have a feasibility in 2020 this year. I mean, sorry, PA this year and a feasibility one year after. The pilot plan will have results continuously, but we'll finalize in Q3 of next year. A bit of our capital structure, which I mentioned before, we have about 30 million today in the bank. And we have a pretty good ownership and institutional base. So, high grade, low impurity, simple evaporation process, large project, 35,000 hectares, 100% on. We're not sharing the project with anybody. So, the straws are going in our straws and we'll pull whatever we need to pull out. And we have an experienced team. So, catalyst, resource and PA this year with a feasibility next year. Thank you very much.