Your Excellency Prime Minister Najib Tunrazat, Ambassador Jamaluddin, Tansri Hashim, Tansri Anwar, Dr. Rebecca, Dr. Mahani, friends from Kuala Lumpur in the United States, ladies and gentlemen, welcome. Good morning and Salamat bagi. Welcome to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CIS is honored to join hands with our partner institution in Kuala Lumpur, the Institute for Strategic and International Studies, with whom we've signed a MOU this morning to look at U.S.-Malaysia relations in more depth, led by Dr. Dato Mahani in presenting a discussion on U.S.-Malaysia relations today here in Washington, D.C. The timing for our discussion, of course, could not be better. Prime Minister Najib has just consulted bilaterally with his colleague President Barack Obama. Both countries have a deep reservoir of cooperation to draw on and are now under the leadership of these two men stepping into a new era of renewed cooperation. We'll explore these opportunities in detail today in our session. In the course of our program, we'll hear directly from the visionary behind this new chapter in our relations, Prime Minister Najib, as well as from practitioners and policymakers in the areas of security and trade and investment cooperation. We'd like to thank all of you for attending today and encourage you to engage with discussion and good questions and comments, which is in the CSIS tradition. Let me now turn to our guest of honor and the man who is driving this new relationship and taking Malaysia into new areas, Dato Shri Tuen ... sorry, I didn't ... I promoted you already. I did not mean to do that. There we have a headline already. Let me now invite the Prime Minister to make his remarks, and Prime Minister, welcome again to CSIS. Thank you, Ernie, for your very warm introduction. I can understand the slip there. Dato Ernie Bauer, Minister of Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Friends, Ladies and Gentlemen. I'm very pleased to be able to have this opportunity to speak to you today. I commend the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, and the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, ISIS, for your initiative in organizing this seminar and the untiring and your deep commitment to further strengthen U.S.-Malaysia bilateral ties. Both institutions have a history of collaboration. I am heartened that the spirit of cooperation and friendship is strong and certainly augurs well for the bilateral relations of both countries. I strongly believe in the efficacy and wisdom of having tracked two or none official exchanges such as yours. They are invaluable for gathering rich insights, exchanging perspectives, and even to iron out differences that are inevitable in any relationship. I am pleased to note that our two prestigious institutions, ISIS and CSIS, have formalized a while ago, a little while ago, a memorandum of understanding that was set into motion a dynamic and fruitful dialogue process. Indeed, there is much to look forward to. There are many complementarities and synergies to be harnessed. As you know, Malaysia is located in the fastest-growing region in the world. We are a founding member of ASEAN, one of the factors responsible for achieving peace in our part of the world. ASEAN is striving to be more coherent and integrated in years to come. Malaysia has actively served as a bridge between Muslims and the West. Muslims make up slightly less than a quarter of all humanity, over 60 percent of which live in Asia, but are still misunderstood. I encourage CSIS and ICs to endeavour towards correcting these misperceptions and to explore ways to bring about common prosperity, peace and stability to the international community. This morning, I would like to spend my time to outline some of the more recent initiatives that Malaysia has taken to strengthen peace and security within its own borders in the region and the world. Ladies and gentlemen, the post-Cold War era has presented important opportunities for new regional and global security initiatives. With the crumbling of ideological divides between the East and the West, there have been greater occasions to cement constructive engagement and cooperation on pressing issues of regional and international security. The conflict and distrust that marked relationships during the Cold War has now given way to close friendships not only among Southeast Asian nations, but also between major powers and ourselves. Southeast Asia places such a premium in America's engagement in our multilateral processes. Malaysia in particular welcomes the Obama administration's endorsement of multilateralism as the preferred route to problem-solving. We also welcome its endorsement of ASEAN centrality in regional processes. Important initiatives such as active dialogue between the United States and regional leaders and the recent signing of the Treaty of Amity and cooperation are an affirmation of the close ties between the United States and ASEAN. Initiatives such as these go a long way towards strengthening the security architecture of the Asian region. We therefore look forward to building upon the efficacy of our existing security institutions with our American counterparts in order to advance our mutual security interests at both regional and global levels. Ladies and gentlemen, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and related materials represents one of the most pressing challenges for the international community. It brings the terrifying prospect that more countries could acquire or develop nuclear capabilities, but more horrifying the possibility that terrorists or non-state actors could gain control of nuclear weapons poses a fundamental threat to us all, irrespective of which nation is targeted. That is why the leaders of over 40 nations and I responded to President Barack Obama's invitation to the recent Nuclear Security Summit. I believe that the summit has advanced the crucial goal of cultivating a global consensus on the severity of the threat from nuclear terrorism and how we could deal with this threat both at the national and international level. In this regard, I would like to reiterate that Malaysia is committed to us ensuring that nuclear materials and technologies do not fall into the wrong hands. This commitment is clearly demonstrated by the recent passage of the 2010 Strategic Trade Bill through the lower house of the Malaysian parliament. It provides for severe criminal penalties for those involved in the illicit export, transshipment, and brokering of weapons of mass destruction, their delivery systems, and related technologies. This piece of legislation will enhance Malaysia's ability to contribute to global counter-proliferation efforts. However, establishing a legal framework is only the first step. The Malaysian government therefore intends to see to it that this legislation is strictly enforced and that our law enforcement agencies are provided with the necessary resources to do so. At the center of the international community's efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As most of you are aware, the NPT Review Conference will be convened in New York next month in May. The 2005 Review Conference showed the difficulties inherent in arriving at a global consensus on how the non-proliferation and disarmament agenda can be moved forward. It is important that we do not go back to our capitals the way we did in 2005 with our tail between our legs. For this year's conference to succeed where the previous one failed, it is crucial that the nuclear weapon states demonstrate their commitment to nuclear disarmament. Malaysia therefore welcomes President Obama's vision of a world without nuclear weapons although the timeline might take a bit longer but we fully subscribe to this noble vision as articulated in his speech in Prague in April of last year. This is an aspiration that is very close to the hearts of Malaysians and Southeast Asians as evidenced by ASEAN's establishment of the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone. We are also encouraged by the 2010 nuclear posture review which reduces the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. security policy. The declaration that United States will not use nuclear weapons against NPT-compliant non-nuclear weapon states I believe a step in the right direction. Ladies and gentlemen, when I took over office a year ago, one of the things that I decided was that there must be a new beginning in our bilateral relationship. I decided that we should redefine, reconfigure this relationship because it is so important but we have not fully realized its potential. Therefore, I have committed myself to working very closely with the present administration and I am delighted that much has happened over one year in so many ways and I am very confident that this bilateral relationship will grow from strength to strength. One of the things that I have responded very positively is that Malaysia will play our part in areas that we could be helpful and this includes our new commitment to be involved in Afghanistan in ways of providing help in the reconstruction of that country in terms of training, capacity building, civil reconstruction and medical assistance. We are now in the process of working out the details but the commitment has been delivered and I delivered it personally to President Obama. Ladies and gentlemen, the interests of Malaysia and United States intersect in many areas and none more so in the struggle against terrorism. Admittedly, we do not always agree in our approaches in addressing the threat posed by terrorist groups but we do not always have to, not when we fundamentally agree on the objective and the seriousness of the threat itself. The unprecedented levels of cooperation between Southeast Asia's security forces, particularly those of Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, have eroded the ability of the Jemaah Islamic Network to terrorise the people of our region but we cannot afford to be complacent as the saying goes. Just when some thought the days of major terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia were behind us, we were gravely reminded why we cannot never let our guard down, particularly when recently we uncovered a group of not Jemaah Islamia but real hardcore al-Qaeda operatives who tried to get into Malaysia. The United States has played a positive role in building the capacity of Southeast Asia's security forces in the struggle against terrorism. Indeed, cooperation between Malaysia and the United States, particularly between our security agencies, has never been stronger. It is my hope that this cooperation will be sustained long into the future. Securing Southeast Asia's maritime environment represents another area where the interests of Malaysia and the United States converge. Both countries wish to ensure the safe, secure and safe passage of vessels through major sea lanes of communication. The best way to achieve this is by building the capacities of the region's maritime forces. The figures for piracy incidents in Southeast Asia over the last decade bear this out. In 2000, there were 242 incidents in our regional waters. Last year, that number had dropped to 45. This has been a result of collaborative efforts by Southeast Asia's military forces. And the capacity to do so has been achieved in no small part due to the assistance of countries from outside the region, including Japan and the United States. For example, through the annual cooperation afloat readiness and training exercise or carrot, the United States Navy has shared its expertise with the maritime forces of Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Malaysia regards such exercises as valuable opportunities indeed. And I hope Malaysia and the United States could explore ways to further expand our collaboration in the maritime domain. Malaysia's location means that it is largely protected from natural disasters. But because our security and our prosperity is inextricably linked with our neighbours, Malaysia cannot afford to ignore the need to prepare for such contingencies. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Cyclone Nagus in 2008 showed that assistance from outside the region could be critical in the event of exceptionally severe disasters. The people of Southeast Asia appreciate America's assistance in our moments of need. There is significant potential for collaboration between Malaysia and the United States in responding to natural disasters. And I hope this could be explored between our two countries. Ladies and gentlemen, Malaysia, along with other ASEAN countries, is cognizant of the changing dynamics of international security in the 21st century. In this day and age, the global security agenda is no longer exclusively defined by traditional security issues. International security has now expended to include non-traditional security issues such as human trafficking. Malaysia recognises the need for such issues to be included within national and regional security efforts. If non-traditional security issues are left unaddressed, they can pose severe and significant security implications. Human trafficking has emerged as both a regional and global security issue in recent times. Global statistics indicate that around 2.7 million people are being trafficked worldwide annually. The majority of whom are women and children. Malaysia has undertaken several important initiatives to address the problem of human trafficking. First, the Malaysian Parliament passed the Anti-Trafficking in Persons Act in 2007. As Malaysia's first anti-human trafficking legislation, it provides the legislative means for Malaysian authorities to pursue and convict human traffickers. As of 10th February 2010, 280 syndicate members have been arrested. More than 1,400 men, women and children from 17 countries have been rescued between February 2008 and 2010. The second initiative is a national action plan against human trafficking. This plan serves as the blueprint for a comprehensive and integrated approach among Malaysian government agencies to effectively tackle the problem of human trafficking. Ladies and gentlemen, United States and Malaysia's investment and economic relationship is another key pillar in our bilateral relationship. The United States is Malaysia's major trading and investment partner. In 2009, Malaysia's total trade with the United States is $35 billion, representing 11.1 percent of Malaysia's total trade. The United States direct investment in Malaysia in 2009 amounted to US $300 million, or 8.4 percent of total FDI. And I am personally, with my other colleagues, determined that this number will increase in the years to come. As a matter of interest, I was personally involved in encouraging the Coca-Cola company to invest in Malaysia. The discussion started during APEC, Singapore last year in November, and the plan is already under construction in March this year. This is an indication of how fast and expeditious we can respond to major high-impact investment. Not that I drink Coca-Cola myself, but I think it is important that we are associated with such a brand household name, and the fact that such a major corporation can get such positive intervention and assistance from the Malaysian government. And that is the message I would like to deliver to the entire US business community. In fact, this relationship extends beyond trade and investment. Malaysia is part of the US multinational company's production network in East Asia, and brings with it technology and management capability as well as marketing network and venture capital. Certainly, there is a scope for expanding this investment and economic relationship that can bring mutual benefits and deliver growth to our nations. It is unfortunate that Malaysia and the United States were unable to conclude a free trade agreement before the expirations of fast-track authority. Even without this formal arrangement, I can see opportunities in which bilateral investment and trade can flourish. Malaysia can be the hub for investment in green and energy-efficient technologies through the use of our natural resources. Services industries where Malaysia is emerging as a strong leader, such as Islamic finance, tourism, halal products and services can be an avenue for enhancing bilateral trade. Malaysia will also take a serious look at strengthening its investment and economic ties with the United States through the Trans-Pacific Partnership with terms and modalities that are mutually beneficial. The Malaysian economy is now at a critical crossroad. Our economy is caught in the so-called middle income trap, where growth in the past decade has been moderate. Policies that have been effective in the past may no longer be so in the future. That is a strong raison d'etre and basis for us to move forward with the new economic model, or NEM, to lift Malaysia out of this trap and to achieve our goal as an advanced and high-income economy. This model adopts a holistic approach to ensure that all communities will benefit from the wealth of the country and, at the same time, taking care that the pursuit of higher growth should be done without compromising future generations. Under the NEM, Malaysia intends to grow at 6.5 percent per annum so that we can double our GDP per capita from the present US$7,000 to US$15,000 by 2020. The NEM encapsulates the new mindsets and methods that will need to succeed. Growth must be private sector-led and productivity-driven. In order for this to happen, we must focus on improving both our domestic and international competitiveness, private sector investment appetite must be restored by improving the investment climate, reducing unnecessary red tapes. Industries that are technologically capable must be nurtured and workers must be highly skilled. As this growth will be highly dependent on the quality of our workforce, our education system must be re-evaluated so that we will produce the right kind human talents and, at the same time, retain them in the country. In the main, the new economic model strives for greater productivity. Efficiency and we also aim for better quality of life and improvements in the standard of living and all around inclusiveness. US corporations and investors will benefit from a more conducive investment climate, increased liberalization efforts, a higher quality in the Malaysian workforce as well as efforts to facilitate the growth of promoted industries. Industries such as electrical and electronics and oil and gas have significant US participation and interest and under the NEM, these industries will be given a further boost. The NEM will place further emphasis on the creation of a conducive investment climate. For example, the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority will be empowered to lead our efforts to attract more investment and this transformation is reflected not only in its new identity and name. MAIDA is now known as Malaysian Investment Development Authority but MAIDA will be empowered to make decisions in real time and this is a clear signal that we intend to be very responsive to the needs of the international business community. To be sure, there are many of those whose interests still lie in the old way of doing things. That may well, may suit them but the grave consequences are economic stagnation and social regression. I've always likened this to a marathon race. The fact that you're doing well halfway through the race doesn't mean that you'll be leading when you reach the tape, unless you uplift yourself, unless you are driven with new dynamism and energy, then you might find yourself overtaken by others. Without rapid and sustained economic growth, we are unable to uplift those who require assistance the most. That in a nutshell is the inescapable fact of the matter. The initiatives embodied in the NEM will enable us to address the imperatives of equity and nation building. The NEM is one of the four components of my transformation initiative. The first component is the all overarching philosophy, if you like, which is embodied in one Malaysia, people first, performance now concept. To unite all Malaysians, to give all Malaysians a sense of togetherness, to face the challenges ahead. The second is the new or the Government Transformation Program, GTP, aimed at strengthening public services area in national key result areas under GTP, cumbersome regulations, processes and procedures will be simplified to improve the effectiveness and reduce opportunities for rent seeking behaviour. As a matter of fact, the GTP program and using NKRA and KPIs as part and parcel of the Government methodology to gauge performance and outcome on such a large scale is unprecedented worldwide. This is a huge challenge for us, but we believe that we can deliver and we can fulfill the hopes and expectations of all Malaysians. The third critical component is the new economic model where the measures will form the Economic Transformation Program. So essentially you have two key pillars, the GTP and the ETP, and both are meant to transform Malaysia by 2020 into a developed and competitive economy whose people will enjoy high quality of life and high level of income from growth that is both inclusive and sustainable. The final component of course is the 10th Malaysia Plan and eventually the 11th Malaysia Plan which will operationalise both the Government and Economic Transformation Program to be unveiled this year. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope that I have managed to give a broad overview of Malaysia's security, economic outlook and the main agenda for the Government. I hope you will now examine how greater US-Malaysia collaboration and understanding can be achieved in these areas. The best understanding however would be gained if you were to come to Malaysia and find out first hand what is actually going on in Malaysia. I'm not making a tourism pitch. I'm confident that you will be pleasantly surprised at how different reality and perceptions are. I thank you.


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the third one, right? Now this book is the book that was with me a few months ago. It's a book that one of the people on Twitch popped in and you know we're talking about comic books and stuff like this and they knew I'm not showing you the front of it just because the names and the addresses and stuff are on there, right? So we're going to crack this open and this thing is basically a comic book that I put up part of a collection and it's if you're following the other videos you would have seen it being loaded on, we graded it and put it on to eBay. It's Amazing Spider-Man 361, right? And I put this up with the rest of the Amazing Spider-Man, the appearances of the first appearances of Cletus, the cameo appearances of Carnage and Cletus and the first two full appearances of Carnage and this is the most expensive one. It's first full appearance of Carnage was Amazing Spider-Man 361 and this thing Mark is the person that ended up buying it. Thank you Mark. I mentioned during the last stream that I appreciate it very much, right? And I he mentioned that I was going to send it back to it was like no man you can't do that it was because this was you know more expensive than I believe most of the other ones put together, right? So it was the it was a cream, right? So what he ended up doing was when he got the books he sent this into CGC, got it graded and then send it back up to me as a gift, right? So huge huge and if you know the history of Amazing Spider-Man this is a very very important book, right? Very important book and what I ended up grading this as was 9.4, right? Near mint. Seriously, I'm like nervous on this. I think that's why I've been sort of forgetting names and sort of losing my train of thought because this thing's been sitting on my couch for the last day for us to set up the live stream for me to crack this open, right? So it's packaged like lots of bubbles and wrapping and stuff. So let's take this out. Look at this. Oh my god, serious bubbles. Look at this. Awesome. So we're going to crack this open. Hold on, let me put this guy here. Okay, let me put this here. Crazy. Let's see what this is. And I don't have this graded. For sure I don't have this graded, right? I only have I think with this one we have a total of I don't know probably 10 or 12 CGC graded books or something. Let's check it out. And this thing when I graded it, I mentioned that on the spine on the lower staple, dangerous, lower staple was a little bit of crease on the lower staple. So I'm not, my estimate of this thing would be 9.4 because the rest of the book was absolutely beautiful, right? And that was sort of a stress mark or whatever it is on the staple. So I'm not sure how much that kicks down the grade, but let's see what CGC considers that to be. I don't know yet. Oh my god, no way. Awesome. By the way, Mark is watching on the live stream, right? Wow, cool. So I guess we're lowballing it on the eBay auctions, right? This sucker came back as 9.6. That is sweet. Crazy, crazy. Awesome, awesome. Mark, fantastic. And this thing, by the way, this thing had, because of the printing, right, the way they print comic books in the bottom of it. There's the cut things that they do with Marvel. Marvel had a lot of these because this stuff was sort of on muse print. When they did the cut for the comic books, there's usually a couple of slits, not usually, but a lot of the comic books have a couple of slits at the bottom where the cutting happens. So they look like holes and they are holes, but that doesn't knock it down on the grading. So I knew about that. So I didn't knock off anything on it. I just assumed just because of the spine thing on here. It was a 9.4, but it came back as a 9.6. Oh, crazy, crazy, dude. Awesome, awesome. So some of the things we must have graded at 9.6, 9.6, they would have come back as 9.8 and kick it up, kick it up, right? So people that did the buys on the eBay, the auctions, I'm glad they're getting great comics. We have one person commenting, laughing at how low I was grading some of the comics, right? He was very happy, the person buying. There's a few people that have been buying the comics that have been very happy with the comics, right? So first, full of fears of carnage, 9.6 slapped. And so this thing basically Mark ended up buying for more. It was 167.50 Canadian, which came out to, you know, that comes out to $126 U.S. or so, right? So $126 U.S., right? I don't know how much it costs to send in for grading. I know a cost from Canada costs too much. It costs like 40 bucks or something or more, right? So 40 bucks Canadian, so it would be 30 bucks U.S., right? So this thing total cost, not including shipping that Mark sent. Mark, seriously, dude, thank you for the love, man. Thank you for the love, right? I'm just doing a price thing just because we're doing a lot of price things on comic books, right? So include the shipping and all this jazz. So $130, not $360, $170, let's say, $180, let's say, right? 9.6 CGC for $361. I think it's selling for $200 plus, right? So with all this shipping, sending in yourself to be graded, doing a Hail Mary buy on eBay, you find a right buyer, you get great deals, right? Fantastic. And if the seller is super lucky, has amazing people that are sending them amazing love, they get a grade and send them back to them. So this is great. What else did they say here? Amazing Spider-Man, $361, Marvel Comics, January, February, March, April, 1992, $492. David Michellini's story, Mark Bagley and Randy Ember-Lean cover and art, first full appearance of carnage, cleatus cassidy, fantastic, like this thing, awesome.  I've never sent a book in to be graded, right? The feeling I'm getting right now, this was in my hands, right? I looked at it, we flipped it just to make sure, right? We graded it, we sold it, right? Went to the United States, Mark kind enough, send it in to be graded, comes back, comes back here, right? This is a book that was in my collection that went on a serious trek and found its way back, fantastic, wow, wow, wow, super, super cool, super cool. This thing just became one of my favorite comics in my collection, really, like cherish, right? Cherish, cherish, cherish, very cool, very Mark. Thank you, brother, thank you, awesome.


Like this. One, two, at this speed. Don't rotate your body, keep your shoulders square. Keep your hands relaxed, keep your fists half closed at this point. Keep your shoulders relaxed. And when you pull back the fist, pull back the fist under the hand that goes out.


The presidential election petition caught PEPC sitting in Abuja has adjourned till Friday for the proceedings on the petition. The candidate of the People's Democratic Party, PDP, filed to challenge the outcome of the presidential election that held on February 25. The Justice Haruna Samani, led five-member panel, adjourned to continue for the pre-hearing session on the petition, as well as to hear pending applications that were filed by the respondents. Cited as respondents in the matter are the Independent National Electro-Commission INEC, the President-Elect, Ashwajibullah Tinambu, and the All Progressives Congress APC. The respondents are praying the court to dismiss the case in its entirety or in the alternative, strike out many paragraphs of the petition for being incompetent. While adjourning the matter, Justice Samani said the court would decide on the number of witnesses that would be allowed for each of the parties, time to be allocated to them as well as the time to be allowed for cross-examination. He urged the parties to put heads together and agree on further modalities to be adopted.


Okay, thank you mercy. Okay. That is not a black hole evaporating That's the Kizumun volcano in Kamchatka that took a picture out of the out of the window an airplane when I was flying from Vancouver to I Can't remember whether it was about a ten years ago. Either to Korea or to or to Japan I Forgot to leave and look up the year, but it's on it's in the Wikipedia article about Kizumun volcano, so Okay, so Well, we've we've heard a lot from Jose and that and he's covered a lot that some of the things that I'm trying to cover too So there's some overlap in some sense classically black holes Maybe the simplest objects in the university and put what once they settle down They're just characterized by mass and angular momentum in asymptotically flat space, but quantum mechanically they may be the most complex they seem to have an enormous number of states and Enormous number of different behaviors, so I was asked to talk a little bit about some of the timescale So I'll talk a bit about that. There are a number of timescales associated with a black hole in this talk, yeah, I'm Going to whoops, where's the point to the pointers the top part? Oh There we go. Anyway for simplicity, I'm going to just talk about four-dimensional space time Maybe most of formulas generalized other dimensions, but let's do that. So if you if you imagine well We the biggest black hole that we've seen now. I mean it's some question about what the mass is but of order 40 Billion solar masses at least as some example Wikipedia the number is very questionable But anyway of that order, there's others of order 30 billion solar masses black hole So let's suppose we take the biggest one to get some of the biggest numbers of this Then of course if you say that we have that much energy Then what's the quantum oscillation period for the for the phase to change by 2 pi then that that period is is about 10 to the 91 seconds and then the Hawking decay time is around 10 to the 106 seconds, so there's a ratio of those times of that and then there's also Larger timescales of black hole if it's if it's stable in the micro canonical and in an anti-decider space time Well as the box can't be too big as Jose said in this case for this black hole The box can't be bigger than about 10 to the 31 light years Then there's a classical recurrence time or I think what was it called this Hilbert time e to the the s It's roughly that it's roughly the 170 30 37th root of a Google plex And then there's a quantum recurrence time for the quantum state to get back to within some small number of that Which is doubly exponential, so it's roughly exponential of 10 to the 10 to the 10 to the 100 and then times alpha so Google plex times alpha raise it to the power of 10 Exponentiated anyway, so there's enormous range of times for for some of these black holes and Okay, I'll probably can skip over the details of this but to avoid Historical accidents of units like the foot and and so on all use plank units and here You know the plank mass and the and the plank length and the plank time and the plank and the plank energy Which is roughly I think the most kinetic energy of an airplane that I've asked the pilots about Afterward what their mass it was about 10 plank units for the kinetic energy of a jumbo jet smaller Just tend to be less than one plank unit of kinetic energy Plank power is that plank energy density while it's it's 85% of 10 to the 200 electron volts for megaparsec cube If you want to use crazy units for this thing Okay, and observe physical parameters of plank units. Well the elementary charge I'm setting H bar and C and G is is roughly that proton mass About 10 to the minus 20. It's very close to the inverse square root of the largest prime ever found by human without the use of computers But off by a little bit electron mass 10 to the minus 23 solar mass is Roughly 10 to 37. It's it's it's it's close to the inverse square of this by Stellar evolution stellar model things supermassive black hole of the biggest one I'll Take as this which is roughly that a year well a Julian year that astronomers use is that age of universe is about 5 trillion days Cosmological cause the interesting is very these numbers very close to Unity that fit in there so you can describe it by 10 by three English words 10 square out of Hertz is the cosmological constant And the given Hawking energy is also very close to within the uncertainties of lamba. It's it's it's very close to this this number Okay, that's just the background Well as we heard before after suggestions from David Beckenstein that black holes have an entropy proportional to their horizon area Which Stephen Hawking originally noted would be inconsistent with the then-believed fact that black holes can only absorb radiation but then after independent predictions by Jacob Zeldovich and Alexi Starbinski and then others of us Larry Ford and I sort of independently realized later That the black rotating black holes would emit then Hawking heard about this and he talked to Zeldovich and Starbinski he liked her idea didn't like their derivation So he went back to do it to do the derivation and found his way that even non rotating black holes He met radiation and have a temperature And so here I'll give it for a non rotating uncharted black hole in other words short shield black hole With event horizon radius that so well for general Black hole it's in four dimensions. It's it's related to the the surface gravity And then okay, if you put in the numbers, it's what in plank unit is one over eight pie in So this thermal Hawking radiation made Beckenstein's idea of entropy consistent It wouldn't just be infinite entropy if the black hole only absorbed and it fixed the unknown constant of proportionality So that the dimensionless entropy entropy divided by Boltzmann's constant Is is then given by in plank units a quarter of their horizon area or for a short shield black hole four pi m squared So we heard in the last talk the entropy goes proportional to the square of the of the of the mass of the energy So then Okay, so then Vaporation rates I did numerical calculations from Hawking's formulas of various rates for a black hole and Roughly if you have a big black hole of stellar masses and assuming that all three neutrinos Have masses that are within an order of magnitude or took our couple of them Then then these massive black holes basically can only emit photons and gravitons and then the the mass rate loss is given by this This is not the fine structure constant, but just a numerical calculation constant that I calculated Then the entropy of the Beckenstein Hawking entropy of the black hole Decreases by that The radiation because it goes through this barrier. There's there's some extra entropy Denoted it's bigger by a factor that for photons and gravitons is about this The last digits are probably uncertain, but I put them here is just if anybody wants to repeat the calculation I'd be curious to know how close I got it, but Anyway, if it's way off, I don't know do I lose my PhD if If somebody gets finally different numbers Okay, so semi classical evolution of the black hole it's it's decaying and four dimensions and because well we heard from the last talk the lifetime goes is in cubed and So therefore the the the masses a function of time goes like this the decay time is that it's it put in the numbers It's it's almost nine thousand times the in plank units times the cube of the mass or in solar masses This is the mass of the Sun 10 to the 67 years for a solar mass and a 10 solar mass would be 10 to the 70 years and so on and Then there's semi classical beccasite Hawking black hole entropy then has this time dependence and Whereas the radiation entropy because there's this extra factor beta because of the scattering through the barrier outside has this sort of form then Okay, if Hawking well as we heard also from the people talking assuming local quantum field theory and a fixed dynamical space-time background And particularly assuming the horizons Smooth well, I guess this is really what's outside right? I suppose it doesn't really matter. What's inside the horizon? but if what's outside the rise of the smooth assuming local quantum field theory then It would evaporate in black hole with its absolute event horizon That's the boundary of what can get to the outside then leads the loss of information From the exterior Hawking therefore predicted when the black hole evaporates away And information would be lost from the universe and a pure initial state would become a mixed state so he did this breakdown of I Think he originally Tyler breakdown of physics and a referee required him to change that so he'd break or break down our predictability And this argument did depend on a semi classical analysis the first paper to dispute it was the following one Which gave a number of options and but didn't really prove which one was right But suggested that maybe there was no loss of information Well the issue laid in the doldrum for years But now most opinion but not all is switched to mine and even Hawking has as conceded that But there are still you know holdouts like bill undrew and Bob wall that so on think that maybe information really is lost Now interest in this in this black hole information thing Surge recently with a paper by on Hyrey Meroff Plochinsky and sully black hole complimentary are firewalls 2013 so they gave a provocative argument that suggests that an in falling Observer burns up at the horizon or he gets destroyed at the horizon of a sufficiently old black hole So the horizon becomes what they call the firewall So the argument basically was that if unitary evolution suggests at late times The Hawking radiation is maximally entangled with the remaining black hole and neighborhood including the modes just outside the horizon But then this further suggests that what's just outside cannot be insufficiently entangled with what's inside There's a monogamy theorem that's that something can't be maximally entangled with two different things So if the Hawking radiation that's about to come out is maximally entangled with the earlier Thing what you'd expect to be at least after it came out You'd expect it to be maximally entangled with the the the earlier Hawking radiation if it is also maximally entangled when it's just about To come out it can't be maximally entangled with just inside and then without this entanglement you'd have fields basically oscillating into or Fluctuating independently in both sides of the horizon which would lead to huge gradients in the fields and therefore large energy densities So without this ladder entanglement observer falling into the black hole should be burned up by high energy radiation Okay, I'm not gonna solve this this this problem here I think I mean it does make assumptions in particular local quantum field theory outside the horizon whereas in quantum gravity I don't think we have locality. So it's there's at least one assumption. That's almost certainly not true but it is a little bit surprising how Locality is a pretty good approximation now now you cannot Externally observe entanglement across the horizon because at least if it is an absolute horizon because you can't see across it But it's but this should be eventually transferred to the radiation So one thing we'd like to know is the retarded time dependence of the von Neumann entropy the Hawking radiation if you look at Scribe plus at the future in all infinity and ask What's the entropy of up to what some point? How does it depend on time and the Strominger? Raise this question gave five back can it answer? Maybe it's a bad question. Maybe the information is destroyed Maybe there's a long-ring rev net Maybe there's a non-local remnet and then max or maxible information return Well, I'm going to assume unitarity and maxible information return that the black hole does go away It doesn't leave a remnet and that this this comes out. So let me just give a little bit things about the The time scales so I'll assume unitary evolution no loss of information I'll assume that there's an initial approximately pure state So for example if you form it from a star the entropy of a star is of order that which is a lot bigger than the Beckenstein Hawking entropy of the black hole for a solar mass is of order 20 of orders of magnitude bigger And you remember this gets Exponentiated so the number of states is just enormously bigger For a black hole then for the star So but we assume that since it's for maybe from a low entropy state that initially the black hole really The number of states that are composed of is much smaller than this. It's actually a tiny subset of that Okay, I'll assume that there's nearly maxible entanglement between the hole and the radiation that and also People asked me to and ask how do I measure entropy? I'm going to measure entanglement across a fuzzy boundary if you put a sharp boundary You tend to get depending on what your cutoff is if your cutoffs have ordered the plank energy you tend to get Entropies that have ordered the at quarter the area and I want to avoid that So well one thing is you could take as the if it's a pure if the whole thing's a pure state Then half the mutual information would be the entropy of each part So instead of taking with a sharp boundary you could say one of the systems inside oracles 3m Where's the circular photon orbits? I mean this is arbitrary, but and the other ones outside are equal 6m Which is the isco the innermost stable circular orbits for massive things So if you admit that region in between then the the mutual information becomes finite You're sort of missing that region But you'd expect just Hawking radiation without it without including the high energy modes to have you know Over one particle crossing this region at each time. Okay. I'm assuming complete evaporation in the just final Hawking radiation I'm assuming a non rotating uncharged in other words short shield black hole in four dimensions initial Mac black hole is large massless photons and gravitons if this is true then Then I'm assuming that there's no other particles that have less mass than this and this is quite a lot less than the differences Is in the masses for neutrinos? We don't know what the lightest neutrino, but I'm just assuming the lightest ones bigger than that So I'm going to soon just essentially photons and gravitons emitted. That's basically just to get the time scales I mean you can modify it to that. Okay, I just made up another slide this morning Just explain a little bit more or another idea of how to regularize this thing So suppose I said that there is a von Neumann entropy in a region Let's suppose we take spherical shells and Suppose we say that is a region between our time a times a m That's why I can make a to be just a pure number and our b times a m So for example, I'll use a equals 3 and b equals 6 for example And suppose you use the Planck scale cutoff with areas of that and Let's suppose that I want the I really want the entropy not counting these Contributions that have ordered the area or if you do the cutoff just right you can get it a over 4 of the boundaries So I'm I'm really interested in the entropy of taking off these high values that you get at the cutoffs So suppose I did that Well, let's suppose I have a Cauchy surface that maybe cuts across and goes into the black hole But it's it's it's regulars to Cauchy surface and I want to and so on the whole Cauchy surface I have some state, but I don't want to divide it into subsystems.  So it's it's a regular Cauchy surface So from zero radius to 3m and then between 3m 6m and then from 6m on to infinity and Suppose that except for the high frequency mode, there's negligible entanglement between this region I mean after all it's sort of it's a small region So there wouldn't be expected to be many Hawking quadricles crossing it So except for the high energy modes, you wouldn't expect that much entanglement between this region and the other two regions. So therefore the the this this Finite entropy or this entropy is not too big, but it would be Between there and there and between there and there in other words There's not too much entanglement. So it's basically a sum and also from r equals 3m out to infinity is roughly this Okay, then you can just by putting this in you I can write these things in terms of these Unregularized well, you have to get a cut off. I guess to make them finite But these ones that you cut that you'd look include the high energy modes If you did that you could you could you could get this and then that's an approximation for that And then this is approximation for that so if I use those approximations I get finite numbers because basically There's one boundary here and one boundary for there and but this has two boundaries So therefore the minus sign that the contribution from the boundaries that are that are like a over four Cancel between here and here and similarly down here. So these are then finite things So that's what I'm going to be sort of talking about when I talk about these these things Now the arguments for nearly maxible entanglement is that if you take a if you take a sub a Pure state a system in a pure state and it's a the Hilbert space is a tensor product of two parts Then if you trace over one part you get the the von Neumann entropy the other part and Similarly if you trace over this part you get the von Neumann entropy that if the whole things appear state those two are the same But then you can ask that of course that depends I mean once you set the decomposition of the Hilbert space it depends on what the total pure state is But you can take the average You if you integrate over this over this this complex projective space that Gary talked about with the The the standard measure on it the fubini of the volume element of the fubini study metric on that you get what's called the Har measure on these pure states so I can do a hard averaging over all pure states to calculate what the average was and that's what I What I calculated in here. I had an approximate formula And I had a conjecture for an exact formula that other people later proved And then if you apply it that that comes out that there's a less than the half unit of information on average in the smaller sub system In other words, it's entropy. It's von Neumann entropy The average is within a half a unit of the and actually if the if the two systems are unequal on sides It's much closer, but that's sort of the maximum difference Then I applied this to black holes if all the information going into gravitation collapse Escapes gradually from the black hole it would likely come out in such a slow rate or be so spread out It can never be found or excluded by perturbative analysis. This is like Jose is saying it's do you've got e to the minus s effects? So it's non perturbative. You can't you can't exclude it by perturbative analysis Well, then also so kind of on Susskin's Conjecture that black holes are fat fast scramblers and that they take a time of logarithmic in the number of degrees of freedom and That black holes are the fastest scramblers in nature So that they rapidly give a state that gives something like this They don't well it doesn't get hard averaging over this time But it gives it so that almost all subsystems the average the average entropy would be very nearly the same as that So they support like results on using an average overall peer states of the total system of black hole plus radiation so Okay, so let's let's just do some calculation suppose we take this these semi-class These are now really going to be that the ones have taken out the the the the a things at the boundary So I'm going back to capital letters here Suppose they be a alright suppose these are approximate upper bounds on the von Neumann entropy See, I'm thinking the Beckenstein Hawking entropy is it's not always the actual von Neumann entropy of a black hole In fact the black hole the form from the star with the actual von Neumann entropy Would be much much less But that would be the maximum for a black hole of that size and then the radiation will assume that you know You have some volumes and you have this some this amount of energy to raise. What's the maximum amount of that? So that's what these two numbers are the von Neumann entropy The Hawking radiation which is assumed to initially pure initial state of uniterity is the same as the von Neumann entropy The black hole since the co-amidations that appear state and it shouldn't be greater than either this or these these are upper bounds So then okay, I can make this well This is partly coming up on an acronym. That's the first letters of my wife's name Kathy But anyway, conjectured annex or anorexic triangle hypothesis that the triangular inequalities for the joint entropy Are nearly saturated. So it's a nearly and nearly anorexic Well, actually was my wife. I told her it was a very skinny triangle and she asked me if it was anorexic So anyway, she gave me the idea. It's an anorexic triangle that the inequalities are very nearly saturated So this leads the assumption of nearly maximal entangle what we need hole in radiation So the von Neumann entropy be near the minimum of that It can't be bigger than either one and as time changes then these well first This is big and then the radiation is small and there's a ratio come out to cross. So That's what then leads to this the von Neumann entropy going up and down So it's the semi classical which is spontaneously creasing with time of the radiation and the semi classical entropy the black hole Decreasing as the black hole evaporates the maximum occurs at that this crossover point at this time Which you see it's about half the decay time, but it's not exactly and the epsilon depends on this ratio of the of the How much entropy is produced by the thing and the mass of the black hole? It's about seventy seven percent initial black hole and the Becking Hawking's the Beckenstein Hawking entropy is about 60 percent of the of the initial value It's a little bit off off from the half, which is you know But this is yeah, this is the point at which the thing Turns over so at this time The von Neumann entropy the radiation and that the entropy then has a value of that about 60 percent of the initial one Or in terms of solar masses, it's about six times ten to the seventy six times the square of the mass and solar units so it's about twenty percent greater than half the original semi classical one and This time it's about eighty three percent of the of the half of the decay Sorry, it's about It's it's it's it's it's roughly it's that times this time Which is the time for the black hole to lose half its area and half its semi classical Beckenstein Hawking entropy so Okay, then you can put in if you want to you can then get an explicit formula for the von Neumann entropy Because you've got this at the early times before this t star You you've got this this theta functions once you've got this term And then after that time you have this term and then putting in numbers in turn in plank units You get this this sort of thing so here's a here's a graph of that thing You can see it goes up and it curves up a little bit because of course as the black hole loses mass It evaporates faster and then here it goes down and then it curves it bends down because basically as you get to the end The black hole evaporates faster. So that's it's the this is even more more curve for for this this thing So, okay, that's what you that's what we sort of expect. I mean, it's not proved that this is exactly right But that's that's what I would sort of expect it to be Well, I'd also expect some correct correct some corrections to those formulas From fluctuations of the mass the black hole could spit out a little more particles or a little less So there may be more changes in each for the mass Fluctions of the position There's going to be brownie in motion to the black hole and in fact by time a solar mass black hole evaporates the uncertainty in the position is Going to be I forget 20 orders of magnitude in the than the size of the observable universe today or something It's enormous how much uncertainty there is in the position, but that doesn't add that much to the entropy Entropy of the motion, okay, there's a log m and Maybe non-maximal entangle, but the fact that it's it's not going to be exactly to peak There's this half units of order one and entropy near the black hole I'm not counting the high frequency modes, but just caulking particles near the border one Fuzziness in the boundary of order one. So there's you know, there's there's corrections of our but that whole entropy's of order in Square, so these are all relatively small correction. So Okay, so on the assumption that a short shield black hole of initial mass Much bigger than the solar mass basically to make it too massive to mid anything but photons and gravitons If it starts at a nearly pure quantum state at least relatively speaking and decays away completely by unitary process While being nearly maximal scrambled at all time the von Neumann entropy increases up to this maximum entropy At a time given by this and then decreases back to near zero Okay, I don't have time to give it here, but if you did start with a black hole on a maximum mixed state This is from some other people where I talked about the time dependence the von Neumann entropy the Hawking radiation increases from zero Up to a maximum of a bit of about 20% more than the initial Beccasite Hawking entropy at this time and then the increases back this so you can do these curves for different Vies of an initial entropy, but here I don't have only time I made just that just to summarize what I've calculated in some other paper now so far I've been talking about black holes that decay in Asymptotically flat space time, but an anti-decentre Space time with a negative cosmological constant if you impose either thermal or reflecting boundary conditions that it's time like conformal boundary at radial infinity The thing it acts like a finite box So either you keep it perfectly reflecting and fix the energy or you keep it thermal at the box Then sufficiently large black holes can be stable in either the canonical or micro canonical ensemble as Hawking and I found So if we use this notation for the word so B is what was it called L? it's the scale length of the black hole and Canonical ensemble gives a stable black hole if the temperature is bigger than the square of three over 2 pi B This is in four-dimensional space time is generalized you can generalize our other dimensions and the mass is bigger than that so if if the scale is is B divided by giga years then then the Then the mass would would have to be bigger than than this if that were a giga year of core For for the canonical ensemble and B is related to the negative cosmological constant by this formula the micro canonical ensemble allows the box to be much bigger than the black hole and Then basically the the energy of the hole plus radiation has to be bigger than this Well, this comes out from numbers and then the root of some cubic So it's about this this mass where B is in giga years So if we had a link scale of giga years, then you'd have Then even a a black hole smaller than a solar mass could be stable with radiation so you could have You know so solar mass or less it's stable with its radiation in this in this anti-decentre space If its size is at least that are bigger Okay, then we have various recurrence times if you have it in anti-decentre space to keep the thing from evaporate Then the the black hole can can can change and you can if the if RH is the radius of the rise in an anti-decentre space Then the mass and the entropy are this that the mass and entropy are non-linear functions And you can see that basically at large mass then the mass goes is the Cube and so the entropy goes is the two-thirds power Which is what which is a D what you'd expect for conformal field theory with two plus one dimensions one time and two space dimensions so the number of quantum states of a black hole of roughly this size is approximately e to the s and This multiplied by the time for light to travel a distance comparable to the hole say that is a classical recurrence time It's the expected time to return to near the initial state at the black hole Say if you imagine this is not really full-quantary if we're undergoing a sequence of classical transitions So for represented by roughly s classical bits ignoring factors like log 2 that each could take vise of 0 1 This would be expected time until the black hole returned to the same sequence of Cubans Okay, I'm not I don't fully understand the arguments and they're not sure I can repeat them But Lenny Susskin and others have argued that black holes formed by collapse from smooth initial conditions Remain free of firewalls for a time at least of the order of the classical recurrence time Assuming they're kept from evaporating and if they did evaporate then big black holes They wouldn't last anywhere near this time so that they would never become unsmooth But even if they're in the center There are arguments that they that it won't get Again, I'm not completely competent to discuss the details and I don't have time to discuss the details Now if you want just not just the microscopic classical configuration to return to near some previous value, but also the quantum state Then you need all the amplitudes for all well all to run to return to very near the same values So that you don't get a orthogonal state So the sum of the absolute squares of the differences of these amplitudes are small So this is a much stronger constraint and it takes a quantum recurrence time Which for black holes is estimated to be doubly exponential So X exponentiate the number of that's the number of states But you have to have an exponential of that because you're you're basically having this number of of states with with phases You want all basically nearly all the phases to come back to be close to zero So doubly exponential the entropy or the number of cubits representing the black hole So okay, Jose talked a little bit about complexity at the end Suskin and others like Adam Brown have argued that the complexity of a black hole quantum state Which is defined as the minimal number of a certain set of quantum gates needed to produce the state Well within some epsilon. That's again not specified front To produce a safe on a simple fiducial state goes linear with the time for order this this is I think what? Oh, they called it the the Heisenberg time that the the classical recurrence time And then it reaches the maximum possible value and then the complexity stays there with small fluctuations But then if you want it to have a fluctuation that goes down very near to zero that takes this quantum recurrence time. So Anyway, so he's saying that well, maybe the black hole stays smooth up until at least this this or This time and then it might have firewalls. I mean, okay Nobody's really sure it might have firewalls, but then occasionally maybe the firewalls would go away if it went down to that Okay, this is very speculative. I don't know. I mean, I guess I tend to favor the fact that is the view that they hardly ever have firewalls But it's that's a subject of Okay, let me go back to the the time scales and let's collect a number of them and do them for For two masses for a solar mass even though that's too small to actually astrophysically form a black hole But it's a convenient mass unit and then also for these ones It's roughly the highest estimate of any supermassive black hole to subserve so far So the shortest one I can think of is the quantum period in black units 2 pi over m 2 pi over the energy So a plank units. It's that so that many seconds for a solar mass for a 40 billion solar mass. It's really short Next shortest time I can think it might be the time just travel one short shield radius You might call it the light crossing time. So for a solar mass, that's about 10 to the minus 5 seconds For a supermassive black holes. It's a border four and a half days for light to go go that distance Okay, then all right, then there's a scrambling time and this is a time for the information to essentially get scrambled over the black hole or Well other things that that Preskel and Hayden show or even Preskel showed that If you knew all the quantum information that came out of the black hole up to some time and now you've somebody fit in some New information how long would it take for you to decode that new information and that's also board of the scrambling time? so it's the light time crossing time times a log of ass so then for that the Solar mass black hole. It's it's it's about three Milliseconds and for this one. It's a border 5.6 years. So it's bigger than the four and a half days by this log factor All right then another scale again This is a little arbitrary But if you if you ask what sort of anti-decider space could have this black hole in it as a micro conical ensemble the time scale for Oscillation of a particle in this anti-decider space that would give another scale that you you could get and Basically because it goes the e to the five thirds Then that's about 10 to the 65 plank units or about 10 to the 14 years for a solar mass black hole That's the if you if you'd have to have an anti-decider space With it with a length scale or a time scale less than this to hold it It was bigger than that the block would be more favorable for the black hole evaporate away for this 40 billion mass one You get 8 times 10 to the 31 years for this Then this time to reach the maximum von Neumann entropy That's what some people called the the the page time. Well, maybe they haven't defined it Well, so I don't know maybe I'm taking liberties with it to say it's the time when the von Neumann It is the maximum, but I assume that's what people mean. Anyway, I didn't make up the name So I'm I guess I should leave it to who how they define it But having the peak of the von Neumann entropy at least if you start as reasonable thing So that time scale for a solar mass black hole is it's six times in the 66 years for the supermassive It's about four times in the 98 years the Hawking evaporation time is you know of order two times this but not quite so that's 10 to the 67 years for the solar mass and almost 10 to the 99 years for the for the the supermassive black hole Then these recurrence times if we have reflecting boundary conditions to prevent the evaporation the classical recurrence time Because it's a huge exponential. It doesn't really matter whether I use plank units or a short-shield radius So here I could basically just give it in plank Well, whatever units you multiply this by the plank or by the short-shield radius That's going to make some tiny change in the very far number of digits of these far more digits than I've given So it's 10 to that or 10 to this for this So this second one is roughly a Google plex raised to the power of the fine structure constant if you want a mnemonic for it And the quantum recurrence time is get exponential of that So that's of order this for the solar mass one and and very this and so it's very nearly So we have a Google and then this is a Google plex so Google plex to the alpha power Factorial then take a factorial of that It's not quite as big as when my children were younger. They wanted to know big number. Well, I told them a Google plex They want something bigger. So the shortest two-word thing I can say is Google plex factorial So they kept going around saying they want a Google plex cactorial of cake or Google plex factorial I can't of course. I can't say it's a Google plex factorial I have to take a Google plex to the alpha power and then take a factorial to get this to get this number for forty billion mass black hole Okay, so to conclude Classically a vacuum spherical black hole is very simple described by the short shield metric when the cosmological constant zero or by the short shield Anti-decider metric that I gave back earlier when that when the cosmological constant is negative and there's analogous one When the cosmological constant is positive But a quantum black hole has a complicated behavior of many different time scales The quantum oscillation time that the light crossing time the scrambling time the largest ads period for micro Canonical ensemble that's that the so-called page time the Hawking decay time the classical recurrence time and the quantum recurrence time so For a supermassive black hole of 40 billion solar masses these times raised from less than 10 to 91 seconds to very roughly the factorial of 137th root of a Google plex, so Anyway, okay, so anyway, so black holes are extremely fascinating and when you go to the Quantum they become very complex and there's lots of mysteries about them We don't yet understand exactly. How does the information come out? Are there firewalls that if so when? But it's a very fascinating subject to to consider so thanks for your attention


Okay, so we were wondering why this particular point was absolutely the high to what makes that a high probability trade. Well, what makes it a high probability trade is let's zoom into that look at that volume there you know it came it's going up and then it gets absolutely smashed down. Okay, and this volume right here I thought actually this volume was this because we were looking at a larger chart but this volume right here is a complete giveaway. I mean look at this thing but now of course we'll see this could be support but why I don't think it's support is because it ended at the bottom of the bar. Okay, it was definitely a very harsh day for Tesla because started at the top the top itself being much lower than the previous days close you know was it learnings I'm guessing then must have been because this is a big big gap however you still want to get some confirmation after that because if you're looking at day trading that's a different thing but you know if you're looking at swing let's see the options on Tesla stock is at 257 right now the deltas of any meaningful valued option which I think is this one is 17 it's too high it's too high so so maybe if you want to do a long strangle now when you're doing a strangle you need to come closer okay because you have two long options the double time decay is going to kill you and it's going to make a very big problem if it goes if you're if you're holding the trade for five to seven days and nothing has happened let me tell you it's not going to happen straddles and strangles look so nice on paper you know they look like a gift from God but they're not the moment five days goes in into the strangle you will see time decay really having a very corrosive impact on the option prices so regardless but you have to come close because that that gives you the best opportunity for the strangle to profit now granted you're not going to hold this to expiry we all know that you know two long options no way if you come closer the deltas are higher the gammas are higher that that would make one of the option option price to shoot up either the call or the put side depending on which way it goes and so I would I would prefer to come closer so you would you would not want to wait for max profit you would not want to wait for the final day to expiry okay those are those things can be lethal given that it's a credit spread okay I mean I wouldn't say that for a debit spread


Going on everyone, Sam here with late sports cards. We're in one box of 2022 at Panina Daenerys Optic football retail for Martin Z. It's good luck here, Martin. See what we got buddy. Let's see if we can get a downtown out of this. Or maybe a Lasers or a mythical. One of the short prints would be very nice. Very nice. So the following are the sub there, Ricardo. There's a Blue Stars, Patrick Sir Tan, for the Broncos, PS2, base rookie of Jameson Williams for the Lions. Blue Stars, Devin White, going to the Bucks, and Jaquan Brissker. Danny Gray, Blue Stars. Nice one there, nice rookie. See the downtown. Why not dude? A Skymore rookie for the Chiefs. Brissol, elite series rookie, going to the Jets. Nice one there, congrats on that. Martin. Hello, DeMarcus Lawrence, and rated rookie, Kyron Williams. Rated rookie, TJ Watt. Blue Stars, JJ Watt, not a rated rookie. That would have been 10, 12 years ago. 2011. Jeez, man. That is gonna be Devin Lloyd. Good Lord. What are we doing? Got a Robert Woods, Bobby Trees on the Blue Stars. Nice one there, Bobby at Trees. Shreylon Burks, rated rookie. Blue Stars, rated rookie, Skyler Thompson. For the Finns. Skylett Thompson. Sam Williams, rated rookie. For the Cowboys. I just want to hear Sam Howell, Great Iron Kings. That'll work. Grats on that. Jonathan. Kate Otten, hollow rated rookie. For the Buccaneers. And Kobe Bryant. Malik Willis, white-hot rookies for the Titans. That is a Kyle Hamilton. For the Ravens as well, Kyle Hamilton. My guy. Played really well this year. I've really enjoyed watching Kyle Hamilton play and develop. Ebbett Smith, retro series. Insert, and last pack is a Jermaine Johnson, the second. Rated rookie. That'll know for your break there. Jonathan, not Jonathan. Martin, thanks again for the support buddy. Get him right out to my men.


Workstream 3 focuses on labor market dynamics, which are central to the production of inequality in South Africa, and then people's livelihoods coming into the labor market and emerging from the labor market. So what we did really well in phase one was that we put together some data that's not available in the country to look at these issues, particularly with regard to the tax data, but also in regard to starting to talk to people in status A about combining various data sources that are in government to augment our knowledge. But we didn't get that far on actually analyzing the data and particularly honing policies out of the data. And so obviously we want to build off that platform that we laid, and in particular the collaboration across government departments because the generation of inequalities full of many dimensions. I think one of the things that is going to assist in strengthening phase two of SA-Tide going forward is not just the fact that COVID unfortunately still with us, but COVID has raised very interesting questions, but it has also brought to the surface long standing structural challenges in the South African macroeconomy and going forward these could be very valuably addressed with the evidence-based platform that SA-Tide has provided so far. So looking ahead, phase two presents opportunities across the spectrum of poverty and inequality analysis. One of the key things that's going to be important this time around is obviously looking at sustainable interventions. It's going to be very important going forward to think about the long-term trajectory of policy interventions not just in an emergency sense, but again tackling the structural nature of South Africa's long-standing poverty, inequality and unemployment. In phase one we got quite a good picture of the national story and the inequalities across the country, but many of those inequalities are actually about where you live. And what that means for the schools that you go to and the clinics that you can use and the type of labor markets that are prevailing in those areas. And so we're on a special campaign to augment our data with some special information so that we can weave that into the story of overcoming inequality and poverty.


This study found that IPD incidents decreased by 85% and 35% in children aged less than two years and two to less than five years, respectively from period 1, 1995 to 2004, to period 4, 2015 to 2017, with a 97% reduction in serotypes covered by the 7-valent vaccine. In period 4, 59% of the disease was caused by serotype 3 and was largely attributed to an Mb positive, novel ST6011 clone, indicating low efficacy of the 13-valent vaccine against infection by this serotype. This article was authored by Pat Lung-Ho, Piera Yintung Law and Susan S. Du.


Physical pain and specifically back pain is one of the most common conditions we see within the field of Chinese medicine. But very often we don't address the root of it or even understand where the root of back pain is. Now in this video I thought I would share some quotes from our medical ancestors about where pain comes from and how we treat it in Chinese medicine. Hey guys I'm Dr. Alex Hine doctor of acupuncture and traditional Chinese medicine and author of the health book Master of the Day. So before we jump in, two important links right below the video. The first is if you'd like to become a patient of mine locally in Los Angeles or virtually via telemedicine, you can contact my private practice right below this video. And the second is for a free guide which is for daily rituals that potentially help you ideas to your life with traditional Chinese medicine. So let's first read from Su Wen chapter 39, one of our most ancient books, The Huangdi Naging, about what causes pain within the body and within the channels from a Chinese medicine point of view. So this is a translation from Henry C. Lu and he says, the yellow emperor asked what causes sudden pain in the five viscera of the human body, the organs. Qi Bo replied, the Qi of the meridians flows without stop. It circulates in the meridians continually. When the cold Qi penetrates into the channels, it will cause obstructions and slow down the circulation. If this pathological Qi resides in the external region of the meridians, it will cause a scarcity of blood. If it resides in the internal region of the meridians, it will cause a stoppage of Qi circulation, which results in sudden pain. Now there's another passage that talks a lot about wandering body pains and where they come from. So this is chapter 43, again a translation from Henry Lu and the yellow emperor asked, how does rheumatism come about? Qi Bo said, a mixture of three cheese, he translates them as energies, will cause rheumatism, which include wind, coal and dampness. When rheumatism is caused by the predominant Qi of wind, it is called wandering rheumatism, meaning the pains wander around the body. When it's caused by the predominant Qi of cold, it is called painful rheumatism, meaning it's in a localized area in this physical pain. When it is caused by the predominant Qi of dampness, it is called fixed rheumatism. So these are translations I believe of B syndrome, which are various kinds of pains in the body and various kinds of aches, wandering, localized, sharp, that kind of thing. Now very often physical pain in the body is what Chinese medicine considers cold. Now if you just hear the idea or the term cold, it sounds very mystical and very pseudoscientific. But remember that these ancient people were observing symptoms and illnesses and trying to explain them in the absence of modern chemistry, modern imaging and modern labs. So for example, ancient people clearly observed that physical pain and menstrual pain got better with the application of warmth, which is still true to this day, right? Women that come into my office, they say they'll put a heating pad on their low abdomen during their menses because it helps the pain. Logical that an ancient person would assume that there's some cold there, why would warmth make it better, right? Warmth is creating some quality that the body seems to like. Now the same is true for pain, people putting a heating pad on their neck or a bengue, right? Those patches you put on that are heating and warming. All of this kind of stuff is a modern example of how these ancient people observed physiological relationships that they did not really know the true explanation for, but developed these metaphorical ways of describing and treating them. And the treatments do really work and they still work to this day. So pain is often viewed as cold, one of the kinds of pain. Now a very common scenario is, for example, this cold is often due to lack of circulation or is due to some kind of obstruction in the body. So for example, I've spoken with many PTs that say that for a lot of people, one of the reasons why they have neck pain is that the thoracic vertebra, let's just say between the shoulder blades, is sort of a quote dead zone for people that are sitting at their computers all day. Because you may be typing, typing, typing away and the neck is moving like this or like this, but this whole area is not moving at all. And very often by applying massage or warmth or foam rolling or trigger point therapy in that area, it will improve circulation in that area and help some of the pain. You know, for example, when we talk about people who throw their back out, anecdotally, clinically, I see that the people who do this most often are not physically active athletes getting injured. It's most often the sedentary desk worker that goes down to pick up their newspaper in the morning and they get that, that locked up sensation in the low back. It's not someone deadlifting a thousand pounds off the floor. It's an inactive person who doing a very minor movement that then tweaks their back or that puts them in bed for three days, for example. So one of the ways we can view cold is circulation, lack of use and activity. That's one of the ways we can view this. Now, one of the most famous quotes in Chinese medicine is the quote here that basically, if there's no flow, there's pain. And if there's free flow, or if there is flow, there's no pain. So often what we utilize acupuncture for is to increase the flow. One thing is of circulation in the channel where there may be pain. For example, if there's back pain, a lot of time people treat the bladder channel, which goes along the whole posterior part of the body from the back of the calf down to the heel, all the way up to the back of the neck, and even over the head. And you can needle both the heel and locally in the back to help with the pain. Or along the flanks to shy young channels like the liver and the gallbladder, that kind of thing. Along, you know, the outside of the leg, especially if there's hip pain as well, going down to the outside of the ankle. So often we're treating the whole length of the channel and not just locally for pain. Usually skilled practitioners in my field are not needling locally specifically for pain. And that's one of the ways that you know they're a skilled practitioner. They may also need a locally, but there's often distal acupuncture or even this kind of mirror acupuncture across the other sides of the body. In general, what can you do about this without coming to see me or see an acupuncturist or a Chinese medicine practitioner? One of the best ways is foam rolling. So foam rolling is one of the ways at home you can treat musculoskeletal pain that is related to something going on with the musculature. So you can treat trigger points, you can increase the circulation, you can just help with overall circulation in that area. And one of the things that's interesting is that like massages, not only these physical therapies that are manual or somatic in nature, they do increase circulation, they can stimulate the vagus nerve. And even if there's physical touch involved, can release a cocktail of chemicals like oxytocin, like endorphins that are related to making you feel good. But in general, the point is increasing circulation and increasing activity in that area will often help with pain. Now one final thought about foam rolling is if you have back pain, for example, is to roll along the whole Chinese medicine channel pathway. So if you have back pain, don't just foam roll locally in your back. Go through the lumbar, go through the thoracic, don't go in the cervical vertebrae, but go up the thoracic spine, do the base of the spine, the suboccipital area, and go all the way down the hamstrings, go down the calves, do the calves, the hamstrings, the low back, the thoracic spine, and then even the base of the skull, the suboccipital area, because then you're factoring in we're trying to increase circulation throughout the entire channel for the pain.  If you can work along the entire fascial pathway, it'll help a lot more with getting to the root of that chronic pain, as opposed to just doing it locally. So that's one part ancient medical knowledge about where pain comes from within Chinese medicine and why warmth makes it better. And pragmatically about something you can apply in daily life. So my two cents on back pain, just a very quick general overview. Check it out. Don't forget to check the links below this video and the two other related videos for you right there.


Today is Thursday and that means acting analysis for animators and today I'm gonna take a look at the TV show season one of altered carbon All right alter carbon is a show on Netflix and if you have Netflix you can watch season one right now And it's actually been out for quite some time. This is episode eight I want to talk about character interaction looks and eye lines and kind of villainous type of behavior all that stuff That I love so let's get right into it. I'll show you what I mean So throughout season one you had this character kind of chasing This character who is the main character and I won't say too much and spoil too much about character changes and swaps and things I thought it was kind of interesting show actually So if you've seen it, let me know in the comments what your thoughts are not everything was great But there's some cool stuff towards it. But anyway, so these guys are constantly Chasing and fighting each other and now they're trapped in this elevator where at this point They're not allowed to fight so there's a lot of No blinking stairs. It's kind of a power struggle and you can see they are just they're not liking each other There's a lot of confrontations and I love this moment here. This is such a cool moment of Him doing this and you can read in this as much as you want to this could be your you know symbol of a gun He's telling him he could potentially be telling him I'm about to kill you don't come between me and my objective, but I love how he is not wavering He's not blinking. He's absolutely steady in his resolve. They're both just ready To kill each other, but they can't do anything at this point again. I don't want to spoil it But at this point, it's just they have to be together in this elevator They got to get to a certain place certain person That's how it is and I love that for them That's their conflict besides their personal conflict and fighting each other and wanting to kill each other at this point They're not allowed to so they have to go back and forth and kind of demean each other via with words and just say Thanks. It's just a great moment in the in this season but going back again This is just such a cool moment of that that little interaction. You can see how much the head moves I'm talking about specifically in your animation terms the contact You can see the movement in the skin here, you know depending on how you your style is going to be how How realistic your animation is going to be but that type of thing you'd have to do all the crazy You know skin deformation, but it can still kind of move your eyebrow shape there But it's important to have and you can see this over one frame This would be a linear key as that head moves over just to get that really harsh impact and to me that Damn makes it more interesting because he is not blinking if you have someone or if you tap someone like this You probably expect that person to blink especially because it's so close to the eye But the fact that they're not doing that goes back into all the stuff that I love about Eyeline and eyesight and how long is someone looking and blinking or not and what does that mean like the intensity of it? So after all this the other part that I love is as they go back They continue to insult each other and say whatever they say he smokes a lot in the show and cigarettes are Maybe not that much anymore, but it used to be kind of a common Prop in animation. There's just some things that people do like if someone picks something up You know this little thing or that or looking at the watch or tapping their feet or doing these type of gestures There's a couple of overused things and I think cigarette props used to be the thing I don't really see it that much anymore, but if you use this you can use this to your advantage in a way that kind of Tells us something about their relationship and this could be positive or negative and in this case It's negative So as he lights the cigarette what I love about this scene as he keeps talking to him and and you know as they Have their standoff. I love Moment it's so good. He blows the smoke on purpose his way He leans away because he hates that and it's just such a great usage of prop So if you have a cigarette if you want to use this or whatever other prop you have How could you use this in terms of a relationship between the two if even if you don't know anything if you just start Here right let's pretend here. So we know okay that person has a cigarette and they just watch this I Think it's pretty clear that this person does not like this person There's something going on and then they they continue We know with their banter and all that good stuff where they have to stay somewhat civilized and they continue with with our Transaction and all that good stuff, but This moment love it. So what could you do? What could you do with a prop? I can one of the classic things if someone has a cigarette and doesn't like kids They will kind of pop the balloon of a kid But if you have any other prop anything that one character likes and knows that the other character doesn't like What could you do with that prop so we get to know more about the character? So again for me, it's not just well, I have a prop I want to use it or I don't know what to do with my hands and fingers and I got to use a prop It's well if you use a prop Then what could you use it for is it something that will tell us something about that character just by itself or a Relationship with another character and there's more in the season I thought there's some cool especially cool action stuff But in terms of again character things that I like to pick out that you might be able to use your animation I think this moment really really stood out again There's some other stuff a lot of visual cool visual stuff So watch it watch it if you're into that type of sci-fi Let me know if you've seen it let me know what you think and if you've seen any other things But that was kind of it that's kind of just that that contact point is very important that when you have Even if it's short and it's not prolonged contact of holding and pulling or you know Like longer fighting and interaction with creatures and pulling stuff Even if it's something small like this that you make sure that the contact is really visible and with your linear key Showing how harsh you're gonna do this or you're gonna do something soft Then the person just has that and then pushes the character off all that stuff again that timing is up to you It's up to you to really decide on the frame by frame basis the impact and if it's something That's kind of just like that if it's that or if it's that Again tells us something about the character, but it's always different right so everything every move every every single frame That you decide on will tell us something different about the character So you have to be fully in control about your keys your ins and ins and outs your your contact points I'm super picky about that because it's so cool because it gives you so many tools in terms of well This is what the character feels this is how they feel towards each other and this is how I'm gonna show it So if you have contacts like that and this could be all kind of thing This could be I just watched Princess Bride recently where the grandfather takes the cheek and does that you know with the kid who doesn't like it Or you could do something where someone is kind of maybe they talk too much And then the other person puts the head on the chin goes, okay, and it pushes them away It's kind of like I'm done with you. I don't want to hear you anymore Just all those contact points are really interesting to animate. They're technically potentially also very difficult But I think it's worth exploring so again if you have two characters and it could be also with one character And the other characters potentially off-screen with so you blow the smoke to someone off-screen But if you have another character and you have props think about that Think about how you could use the prop so it's not just there because you want a prop But it's something that will enhance a the shot be will tell us something about the character And also will give you opportunity to show off your your humor your sense of entertainment or like I always say It's okay to animate villains in this case villainous behavior or interaction where the characters are not good They're not friendly and I think that's just it's something worth exploring because there's so many shots out there and reels with characters There are nice. I'm not saying that you should be always mean I'm saying in terms of character development and stuff you could animate There's always a villain that most of the time there's a villain in the movie So why not explore that character state of mind and then animate that to have variety in your real and with variety Of course, not just humans but also creatures So again think about how you could humanize Creature animation and then maybe that prop interaction or whatever. Maybe it's not a prop Maybe it's a specific animal thing where maybe your animal has a really long tongue Like a lizard taffing or snake type of thing and maybe the other person doesn't like to be touched So you got two creatures talking at one point the lizard or snake or whatever looks over That tongue goes over just enough to touch the cheek of the other character Because don't stop touching me to this could be a moment where they interact like that where maybe it's not a proper say But it's part of a creature feature, you know, I mean so you can take in creature behavior Still have them act like humans But then use the creature observation stuff that you studied to again add something to the shot So they're more mean to each other more of a villain or a good character or a positive character If you will whatever you want to do, but that's it and if this was helpful as always I would appreciate a like if you want to subscribe to this channel subscribe and hit that bell button So you get the notifications about all my uploads and if you've watched these whole thing again till the very end as always I appreciate it and I will see you tomorrow for part three of my Q&A and potentially the last part Depending on how many questions are left. Thank you


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