The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Hazel Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Hi everyone, I'm Hazel Chapman on this day before the Fed comes out with the Fed speak but what can they say I mean inflation is is is high this is no question about it how do they deal with it they can talk about speeding up they're tapering at the same time you've got another force wanting to throw money at the at the at the market in the country there are fighting forces here and I think that's really what we have to deal with in fact if you look at the Dow right now the Dow is up 68 71 actually at 35,728 having held the 14-period exponential moving average most importantly what we're looking at is this is such a selective market there within the components of the Dow you have enough stocks that regardless of inflation and friars they could hold up quite well I mean you've got health care you got areas like that at the same time you've got some sensitivity you've got some financials but it while we're looking at the overall market look the Dow is up 80 now the S&P which is 500 stocks and a much broader base is down 22 at 46 46 all time I was 47 43 did a retest of the hide went very close it went to 40 47 14 was it 47 yeah 13.57 on the 10th and now it's pulling back got that little double top pattern or you can even call it it's really not head and shoulders because this drop was just way too sharp but it's got a right side that is fading technically the MACD is good but not great the stochastics under 80% at 79.13 cents okay on balance volumes pulling back the 9th period is just above the 14 period it's very close to turning down but at the same time the weekly charts are holding pretty well so far so you got the QQQ which is now a lot a lot more specific because it has so many high-tax very weak down 4.7 at 387.50 so this is the Vesco QQQ trust series the NDX 100 basically got repelled in the chapter wave falling acts inside track repellent zone pulling back it's right on the 50 period moving average right now making a second arch formation I would say to you that this is an area especially with the estimations the semiconductors down 230 at 297.35 this is the area that could become somewhat vulnerable and we could start to see a rotation now I'm going to do this I didn't do the for subscribers but I'm gonna do this now MJ which is the alternate harvest EDF the cannabis sector does money start to flow in the terribly weak areas while there's some decision being made as to where to go next meaning January so are we going to see something like a weak sector that has nothing to it because it doesn't need a catalyst you've got SDZ which I've said for ages and ages this is the best of the best in the when you get to the cannabis sectors because it has the alcohol aspect as well constellation brands just an absolute winner for years and years and years look at this SDZ right here up until the height was made in April of 2018 and 236.62 remember some of you remember I had a stock I used to follow what was the clothing company it was taken over by warehouse miss warehouse I think Joseph A Banks and it looked like this I don't know what it was it's like I was told that they kept buying inside it's kept buying and buying and buying and propping the stock up but it looked like this until it was taken over then it just fell apart and I still in existence I think but it's not the same company so this was the winner and then when constellation brands announced after sorry to decline April of 2018 at the 236 level it announced that it was taking over I don't know what it was in the cannabis sector and I said aha so this is a company that's been absolutely fantastic in the area of spirits alcohol etc. now they're going to have a learning process and it's going to take them a little while but because they got it right in one sector I'm pretty sure that they're going to get it right in the next sector so this is a stock we don't have it I should have had it actually like syntax when I'm smoking about it for years and years this is that's overalls that these are sectors like WM which is waste management this is a forever sector and yet it is doing nicely was done 86 cents at 236 right now but it plunged to 184 March of 2020 low and it ran up to 244 just above the 236 high of April of 2018 and then it pulled back to the 14-speed moving average in the monthly and now it's trading well so I'm this is the kind of area that I think might not be as vulnerable to some market decline because of what the Fed says so within that context what I am saying is be very selective here we're trying to do that we've got stocks that have held very well during this period I don't know if they'll keep holding well but they have so far but at the same time we can begin we try to buy a stock today it actually popped up a little bit this morning pre-market but I noticed this because it held the 200-speed moving average beautifully enough that this is great it could have a balance it is a favorite of ours but we've had it briefly but mostly we've been watching it and it plunged over the last many weeks and I thought this is a good opportunity and then as I put the buy-in for subscribers this morning with a remember folks I did send an update of the stop because I had to have a very tight stop I didn't want a wide stop I made a mistake with the stop and then I and then I noticed that it was Kathy Woods who was buying it and then I thought oh no that's the worst thing of all I don't want her buying this because she's just got this terrible touch lady she's gonna be right at some point but in the meantime that portfolio of hers the RKR ARKK oh man and then I thought that's the then and then I saw that Goldman Goldman Sachs I think it was or one of those had upgraded this Morgan Stanley it upgraded it and but it did pull back and we did get stopped out very very tight stop on on a hundred and what a hundred and forty dollars stock I'm quite prepared to get a stop out of a just a couple of percent while I'm waiting for something to really be activated on the upside but be being very selective here we've raised cash I don't want to be running into any kind of hazard right now we did buy a particular index we've got it at the absolute low today we waited from yesterday when it looked like an absolute crazy thing so I want to say why are you waiting 500 point drop to get it well we did get it and I'm satisfied that we got it because I think that all of this is in a way being built in for the Fed we know that they can have no choice but to talk about speeding up the the acceleration of their the tapering the decline of just throwing money at the market but there are other factors yet that are equally important and my suspicion is that when it's all said and done why we'll have a clearer picture I think we will find that was being most affected all stocks likely the tech stocks that have written spent quite a bit on it I'm a lower interest rate maybe not the house want just yeah I'll be back in a moment while hard to get anything done I'll be back are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis in our gear to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN educating investors what's separating 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excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors all now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> everyone we're back just to show you some jump wave techniques look at this we've got a nice little signal right yet 930 for a rally got peak A peak B peak C peak D peak E D's where you start to be a little bit careful it went to E pulls back it went above the 200 feet moving average which acted like a magnet that's the reason why that particular stock this morning is what I wanted because it held the 200 period moving out and then look what happened the left side had very strong technicals the right side retest and weak technicals and now it's gone sharply lower there's the E-mini S&P and one minute chart patterns repeat over and over yes the big H of the arch formation if I can find there it is left side and it's extended to the right we'll see what happens just make it clear if at 4637 if at any point this morning start to see the E-mini trade under 4630 it says our problem and if it starts to push above 46 it's at 4638 if it can close above 4649 says hey there's a little bit of strength here again we'll see if we can get a decent ready going let's go back to our story here so SDZ I was talking about the only reason why I wanted to bring it up is to say in this particular period right now we might find that the very very weak sectors just have a little bit of a law end of the year rally or at least a bounce and I'm just mentioning that this in the sector is really the leader although it's really spirits more than it is cannabis sector it's done very very well SDZ constellation brands I'm not giving you as a recommendation anything we don't have it for subscribers I'm just saying this is the leader and it's doing very well and let's go on now we want you to look at the IWM Russell 2000 to see if it's increased no it's pulling back a little bit now it's only up that's now it's down three ticks at two sixteen point oh one visit this is going to be a tough market for going into two o'clock tomorrow and then maybe it's going to be a very tough market after that but in the meantime it's in a stalling holding pattern question I see where was it where was it where was it yeah so the question is I have the SMH up is that the same person no William William sir thank you very much I don't know if I'm a sir but and I was formerly from the British Commonwealth being from South Africa before they went alone as a republic and I just wanted to say the blue indicator within the stochastic is right here this is blue and it's the on balance volume I love the on balance volume I been using it I use I got inter technical analysis because of Joe Joe well for the granville I was it said for the first time I forgot his name Joe granville's on balance volume but I used to have to add it up with a calculator or with a pen and pencil pencil and paper it's a running total of all the previous up on an update you added the volume to the total on the down day you subtracted that's all it is but once they do once we're on computers they developed it as a program with one line that was fantastic and look at look at the beautiful indicators that is you know the way it's given a question about new month mining came up let's see if we can do this with with on balance one new month mining yeah so you want mining had a very nice bounce where did it bounce from to get the way the on balance volume right here the low of the on balance volume then people will say our indicators they're lagging indicators well look how lagging this is on the 2nd of December on balance more volume made a v-shaped what we didn't know it was a turnaround the next day we didn't know that was a turnaround with a v-shaped pattern well that just happened to be the low of 52 point 60 in new month mining and look at the run up it had but then the on balance volume stalled and said hey be careful be careful be careful look at the high peak e right there on the 16th of November one day after the on balance one turns around from that m pattern so yes I use it not always doesn't work but it's a fantastic indicator to have as just a convenience just such an easy thing to see visually and so on new month mining is down 91 cents at 5626 it's holding pretty well but is in the rectangle formation in the weekly charts and just think of it going from the one level of the rectangles of the upper part to the lower part from the lower part back to the upper part and it's just but the monthly charts is be careful if there's nothing to see a yet in new month mining and so let me just go to gold if I done this already gold is down 15 and 1770 I did in the update it's making a potential art formation right here the dreaded H which have we've methodology right there it hasn't broken down yet but it is saying that it's been pretty weak and I've been talking about this for a long time saying it's more an intraday trading vehicle it had a very nice move to the upside back in November going from about 1760 all the way to 1880 and then it comes back in the Eiffel Tower straight up straight down pattern and it's broken it hasn't broken the left side low of the first of no third of November of 1765 point five in the 1761 point one in the continuous contract the load that was made a week and a half ago was 1762 point two just above it so but my thinking here is that if it takes that out in the arch second H pattern takes out the left side low of this pattern right here of the 61 level watch out because it could very quickly go into the 55 so I'm watching gold very closely I was thinking there was a chance that maybe the thing does something or says something that triggers the inflationary vehicle of gold so that it starts to move we don't know yet but all I can say is once gold starts if and when gold starts to trade above 1806 that's where gold is going to move very quickly to the upside just make it as simple as possible so let's see gold is more disinflationary you know you remember about five months ago I said let's start thinking of Goldy that's gold Bondi that's bonds TLT this Dolly that's the dollar our long dollars for since night 2018 and Vixie the volatility index I used to say we can tie them together at least two or three move in the same direction when certain things happen now I'm saying think of them separately gold is in its own trajectory the volatility index made this major high of major high on the on the dating chart in 35.32 plummets down to the 19th and now it's trading at 21.70 think of it kind of independently the load that was made was a low I don't know if it was the low on the first of December the third of December in the Vixie index and all I can say is that it's a wonderful vehicle and if you're able to trade the UVXY that's good but think of it this is absolutely volatility and emotionality related in the stock market this is that's why I'm trying to think of it as a separate thing gold can be moving in a different way look at the Bitcoin the Bitcoin which is trying to rally head went made a leg into downside yesterday I've been saying this is done with its major move to the upside at least for now maybe even for the year I'm not sure yet but I do say that I've been saying that since it made that top at 60 69 860 that Bitcoin is I don't know if it's done done but it's definitely in this particular phase it is below the 200 pre-moving average I just don't think it's going anywhere just yet I'll type see in a moment we'll look at the thing are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tigers Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the Den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tigers Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other Tigers and Tigers is as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market acting all trading day subscribe to the 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incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com hi everyone there are a lot of stocks and things I have questions about but also so I just posted the code in the Dan posted this and I want to do this look at this D E F so there is no you can go to a G and there is no H so I'll call this to be as conservative as possible I'm gonna call this a G on this particular chart but let me show you something I don't know if I want to go back yeah I'll do that look at this chart you watch me do the chapwave notation from the low of this particular chart that's the low I'll put an up arrow because we know that it's that was the low and now look at this we go uppercase so that's a that was an a right then it's just go over it a a little pulls back goes to it a again another a no that's a b yep that's a b so now we've got a b now I need to check it my eyes is that it's a b 51 45 and 51 65 correct that is a b of course you've got a notation automatically like Steve does that's very good D and now we start a brand new look keep moving keep moving and the reason why I want to do this you're going to be shocked when you see it and this is the reason why I said to subscribers this morning we're going to we're going to stay with that long position we wanted way down yesterday morning it looked like absolutely impossible this morning we got it within pennies and then there was a rally only because there's a chance that a lot of this has already been worked into the market I don't want to be fooled by nervousness I want to be not fooled I want to be there we go I want to move with what the trend is and I'm not sure just yet that is complete fake out that we are done so this is called us an A call this a B call this a C and a D remember D's what you're doing the Chapman wave methodology that it's ideal if you can get to a D and then pull back and then restart so now what do we have we have D you pull back sharp you start another move to the upside call this gray a because it's under the previous high this has to be E slash B new B or old E and this is old F or new C now the reason why I wanted to take the time you know what this is this is something that I've seen before but I never really looked at it I just saw the ticket go by this is called the SPLV and what is the SPLV I've never known until this very moment although I'm sure it was pointed out to me many times first time I'm seeing thank you Kota for letting me know this is right here it says SPLV ETF report ratings anything okay as SPLV offers a straightforward low volatility take on the S&P 500 if it's it selects about 100 S&P 500 stocks with the lowest daily volatility over the past year and so it's a low volatility ETF and look at this look how spectacular it is now why do I bring it out as a as a tool to show you because look if this was a down arrow was technically on every every level I should be saying there's a down arrow there and that should be an up arrow right here because the stochastic pullback from over 80% way down to 20 under 20% on that pullback the magnetic turned down sharply on balance volume turned down sharply the 9th period went under the 14th period and then crossed above it and we've had a really nice takeoff in a single leg a to the upside says G slash a G says oh be very careful at any moment you could pull back very sharply a says are you kidding every single pullback you want to buy because you want to still go to an a B a C and a D on the upside so this is interesting why because look at the XLK the XLK had this big move to the upside almost the same thing I discussed it yesterday I think it was I showed it to subscribers in my overview over the weekend and look at had the single move up which is either a G or a C so the way to answer this is to say wait a minute the magnetic went positive just briefly this is the S&P select text spider fun it went briefly above now it's gone back to negative stochastic went over 80% and now it's at 81% is holding okay but it's starting to pull back the 9th period moving average is above the 14th period moving edge but look at this dip look at the slide down 245 and 169.89 so that says for the you for the SPLV to break down like the XLK is and they very different vehicles you would have to and I have no choice but to actually put that in there at least for the moment there was a peak D in the chart but it did it just barely it almost crossed negative but it didn't in the 9 period under the 14 it's held quite nicely you would have to see the equivalent pullback from 65.94 and this is the low volatility group why would they pull back unless the market itself tanks so that says that it would have to go underneath 64.95 is the 14 period moving average probably would have to go close to the 50 period moving average near the 64 level so it's about two points down if it breaks down though those two points in the next by Friday or Monday this is that definitely was a single leg up to the A side failure pattern the G coming back down very sharply if it holds very nicely and for whatever reason by Friday we actually have one tick above the height of the 13th that happens to me yesterday of 66.53 goes to 66.54 that is really positive action thank you for pointing it out and before I forget I need to write down SPLV with a big question mark I need to do a lot more work on that LV with a big question mark got it all right now we can go back to the questions look at AA we'll look at AA which is alcoa AA is actually acting quite nicely today it's gone above the trend line resistance it's up $3.20 actually more than quite nice this is very good 6.7% at 50.99 now what's interesting is that and I see this made a peak F technically I should put it down arrow but look the 9 didn't even get close to crossing negative under the 14 in the weekly chart all the technicals are weak nothing on balance volume so it says you might find that this is an alternative count but I'm calling it an F for now I'll come a monthly course in a peak C this is very nice action let's just see if X is doing the same thing yeah X is moving so what are we doing we're starting to see the infrastructure stocks moving today and that's what I was saying is this a period where we start to see the real laggards start to move very nicely oh that stuck that I because stopped out of is actually doing a little bit better a little bit better well that's the way it is I mean I just once I knew Kathy Wood was involved I you just can't tell because she's been choosing these things like I'm like a she's she needs metal gloves to be able to catch the falling knives anyway we'll see what happens I can always get back in so X U.S. Steel nice day today a 5.2% up $1.17 and 23.37 I just don't know if this is going to work but it is today you're looking at the 200p moving average acting as a support in you know U.S. Steel and that's what I was saying is this a time now where we get to roll over a complete a switch where the tech stocks really take a well earned reader and all of a sudden you're looking at the heavier stuff are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate 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and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv i got a lot of questions so let me get to this i'm just i i didn't want to do it only because i'm just furious at myself for not holding on to s o x i just timed it perfectly the top in the in the smh's and then we just we got out too soon we and just what can i say uh it was just a vehicle that i chose if i just said short it if you can get the short chair short that's great some people can't the smh is right on the day of the top in the 22nd of november 318.82 uh we were just we were in hell holding it because i would have put a stop above 318.80 at the high of the day i didn't know what the high of the day was but i would have found it and then after that i said that was that's the stuff and yeah we are from 318 we've gone down to today at 296 we've already been down to 290 had a very strong bounce so let me just show you this applied materials round number high remember 159 round number high back on the 16th of november i said i just got to watch this closely it came right back just under 159 remember these double tops that i've been talking about how fascinating it is uh in the market patterns repeat and sometimes you can have completely diverse instruments an instrument that says i've got nothing to do with the other thing and then they both do the same pattern and this is what happened with applied materials double top 159.00 retests again and what does it do it goes to 158.34 i mean 66 cents away what else yeah 66 cents away from testing the 159 round number high and now it's dropped that's applied but it hasn't broken down but it's saying it's struggling look at nvidia nvidia has what a round number low that day that on the 22nd it made its high 346.47 319 was the round number high i said watch that closely and what we are we're now we're at 280 we've gone down to leg c today's lows to 272.50 look at advanced micro devices um running today it's up a dollar 20 and 135 it hit 164.46 on december the 20 on the 30th and today's low was 130 i would say 34 points that's what almost 20 percent uh in one of the leaders on the upside advanced micro devices uh look at the one that we remember marvel i said we'll make a high and then start just lower lows and lower highs and lower lows and lower highs well so far what has it done it made an all-time high of 93.85 morale technologies semiconductor area 93.85 on the 8th of december every day since then has had lower highs and lower lows and today doesn't change that it's down a dollar 25 85.33 on the shorter term these guys are having trouble just on the shorter term look at um zylings same area does the dreaded h today took out the left side low 238.79 the 30th of november high and it's turning right now 209 one by but oh the difference is that this has uh on turn of count gsas c in the weekly chart i think it's time to go to our caller we've got um victor and paramus new jersey victor how are you good good where would you do at amc right now so amc folks amc is of course this is the entertainment holding entertainment industry is trading up 50 cents at 2373 um it made oh i didn't know dated peak app peak c peak dpe doji candle high on the um 13th of september at 52.79 and it's come all the way down to today's low of 20.80 wow listen so what would i do right now if you want to trade a balance thinking that this is in the area that could find a little bit of support as the general market has weakness while waiting for the fed maybe at 23.67 you could just take a tiny little nibble but to tell you the truth victor i think because it's made a lower low in the art formation on the weekly chart my suspicion is that if you're looking at this in about two to three weeks time it's trading right now 2369 i would not be surprised if it's tested the body of this candle right here this candle that has a low of so that low is 12 and the highest 36 that's the candle of the 28th of may i wouldn't be surprised if it gets into the that it it's tested it has tested by then 17 so i don't see it could it could bounce a little bit but i suspect that this is it's not a good looking chart at all if you know something fundamental that's different i i don't see it i the chart is not telling me that fundamentally there's anything good news about it at this particular point so as a balance for point of two maybe but i just think it's going to be going lower in fact i i'm not sure i would short the stock because is that a big move from the 45 it's been cut in half to today's low but i do think that if it has a balance there's a real good chance it's going to test the low of today which is 20.80 if it starts to trade under under 20 if it trades in the 19 area wow then the then the daily the weekly and the monthly charts are starting to deteriorate i hope that helps you what about expiration they got anything to do it on Friday oh expiration well that's what i'm saying maybe it has a little balance within it would you use it up would you use it option that's a nine-day moving average would you use an option on it or would you trade no i should but i wouldn't but would you use the nine-day moving average it looks like it bounces off there all the time well this nine-day moving average is way up at 28.25 that's five points i don't know if it's good let me look at the 120-minute chart give me a second that's a 20-minute chart you know i to tell you the truth if if i was looking at this as an option play i would rather say if it bounces towards the 25 80 26 30 area i'd look at the put side for Friday i'd rather trade a move before that on the upside thinking that there's some selling going to go on into into expiration if it rallies now the opposite would be true that if it pulls back and it starts to hold 20.30 or 20.50 maybe you can have a quick pop on Friday you know what let's look at it again maybe Thursday okay sounds good okay thanks for calling i appreciate that so a couple other things i wanted to say so that's so that's invidia you will look to look to look to that uh belly up intraday thoughts Pat says um Eiffel towers can be called Christmas trees absolutely absolutely i never thought of that very good well dials down 127 right now sbs down 44 hmm this is going to be very very interesting why because within the context of a rally we've already used up that strength and it hasn't held now that says to me be be very careful for for two reasons one is if the market closes towards the lows today it really doesn't have any room at all if there's if the market perceives is what the fed says not just as a negativity they gain whatever they're going to say it can't be a positive thing but they can ameliorate that negativity by talking about it as if there's a plan involved and we've already accomplished this much etc i'll talk about when we return because this is going to be an important couple of days i'll be right back sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors you might think that 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pays you on a monthly basis the target first mortgage program may be the program for you the best rate on a five-year cd in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year or $1,000 per 100,000 invested the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly on secured high-value billable properties in st. Petersburg, Florida the investment is for four years paying 7% per year or $7,000 per 100,000 invested your investment is secured by high-value real estate in st. Petersburg, Florida your investment can be anywhere from $100,000 to $500,000 do you want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured target first mortgage the target first mortgage program may be just the program for you the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call<PHONE_NUMBER> that's<PHONE_NUMBER> this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com so let me just do this we've got a moment to go you're going to be going to Lady Pezzavento you've got think or swim you've got that's with Kevin Kevin Hanks you've got Steve Rhodes, Dave White Tomalba I'll be back with Tomalba later today what I am going to say is this and I do want to mention once again this time it's for Ruby's family friend who passed away our deepest sorry deepest regrets deepest thoughts are going with you and I don't know how much it meant to you so Ruby really our deepest sympathies so FXI on your loss the FXI which is the China this is the big cap ETF a large cap they call it and makes this H but the dreaded H pattern it's held so far that f side low now when I was saying to you if I don't want to talk about this maybe tomorrow or the chaff wave this is the stock leg upside down stock leg formation what I do want to say is that yes looking at alternates because the market is starting to tank where would you go and that's what I was saying the areas that have been hardest hit maybe they have a bounce but it could be just a bounce and the FXI just to make it as clear as possible close below 37 it's a 37 53 would be very negative if there is a bounce and that bounce takes you about 38 60 there's a chance that yes the FXI China could bounce a little well I would only consider the bounce I don't see anything in China yet that I can look at when I look at the stocks like a Baidu etc and that says I'll break out to the upside not yet but I do see a bounce as a possibility so the dows on 154 s abuse down 50 this is this is serious stuff because finally you've got your SMH's which are not tested the left side low yet but they're just showing not they're not showing the signs of strength that normally they would and the QQQ which has the NBX100 the tech sector is actually very weak right now I don't even have a chance to look at Apple etc but you can only have leadership in a few stocks going so far unique the borderline so just be real careful the arrays a bit of cash is nothing wrong with that I'll be back in a moment for the news and then I will be ready with Tom otherwise too much


Hey everybody, Cyrus here. This is my final speaker introduction of the session. And I'm so happy that it's someone that's really cool. So if you follow SEO online at all, follow the online marketing world, what would you say is one of the hottest companies going in SEO and online marketing? It's actually a platform. And yes, I'm talking about Shopify. They've assembled such a big talent pool. If you have Shopify on your resume right now, that means you're doing something really good. So Cameron Jenkins is content lead at Shopify. Before that, she actually worked here at Moz and Bodify, where she did some amazing work. So Cameron's job is to create content that ranks and converts, and she's very good at it. But here, she asks a question. When you have limited resources, why spend all your time creating new content when older content has a better chance of ranking? That's what she's gonna talk about. Hey everyone, I wanted to kick things off today with a little bit of a scenario. And if you're a content marketer, I have a feeling this might sound a little familiar to you. Let's say, for example, you have pretty ambitious traffic KPIs to hit. And those traffic KPIs have prompted you to decide on a publishing cadence of somewhere around two posts per week, which for your small team, or maybe even it's just you, it's keeping you pretty busy. Most of your posts perform okay, but for some reason, when you look back at your month after month traffic in aggregate, things are stagnating. That's the unfortunate reality for a lot of us who work on sites with a lot of legacy content. Blogs and other content properties that have been around for a few years definitely have their work cut out for them. And that's because of something called content decay. Content decay is the natural deterioration of content performance over time. It looks like this and it has a variety of causes. For one, Google is constantly tweaking its algorithm so that the SERPs better match the intent of people's queries. Your competitors are constantly vying for your spots, information is always falling out of date, and your website's changing all the time. Content decay, in my opinion, poses one of the biggest risk to brands that rely on content to generate inbound leads and revenue. I wanted to hop back to this screenshot for a second just to illustrate how big of a problem this can be. This is a post on one of the blogs that I manage. And at its peak, it was bringing us about 4,000 sessions every week. And at its lowest point, which you can see here, less than 600 sessions per week. Now, we know when it comes to traffic, it's kind of all relative. There are some posts and topics where 600 sessions per week would be nothing to scoff at, but for this post, we knew it could and should be doing a lot more for us.  There is something we can do about it. And that something is content refreshes. Content refreshes involve updating your existing content to reclaim its lost traffic. But even though content refreshes are the antidote to this huge business problem, the content marketers I surveyed, most of them said that only zero to 25% of their calendars were dedicated to refreshes. So let's fix that. Over the next couple of minutes, I'm gonna walk you through the exact process that I use to refresh my content. There are three main steps to my process. Identify, execute, and iterate. So of course, let's start with identification. How do we even know which content needs a refresh? Now, because we're talking about organic search traffic, this isn't something we can guess at. Our guts, unfortunately, are not gonna tell us what to do here, but we do have tools at our disposal to help. So let's start by diving into Google Analytics. And one of the reports that I default to in Google Analytics is the landing page report. To get there, just go to behavior, site content, landing pages. Step two, make sure you're looking at only your organic traffic and step three is to set your date range. Now, there's no hard roll on the date range. I personally here have six months over the previous six months. You can do 12 over 12. Just make sure you zoom out enough to see a trend. And what you're looking for is posts like this. Posts that have lost a pretty substantial amount of traffic over that time period. When you click into those posts and isolate the trend line for those posts, you will likely see that they've been declining over time. And this is a good potential opportunity for a refresh. Now, a word of warning here is that session loss does not necessarily equate with ranking loss. There are actually a lot of reasons why your organic sessions might be down, aside from ranking loss. It could be that the post has just lost demand over time. The topic has lost demand over time. Maybe seasonality as at play. There are a lot of reasons that could be causing this. So that's why I like to pair my Google Analytics strategy with this next strategy I'm gonna show you in Google Search Console. So step one in Google Search Console is to filter to make sure I'm only looking at data from the property I care about. So for example, I'm using just show me blog. Step two is to set your date range. Much like Google Analytics, you can set your date range to six months, 12 months, just zoom out enough in order to see a trend. And step three for me is to export. There are a lot of things you can do natively in the Google Search Console UI, but I personally like to export so that I have a little bit more control over how I sort and I filter. So I'm gonna go ahead and export. And what I'm gonna see here is my queries, last six months position, previous six months position. I'm gonna remove everything else like impressions, clicks and CTR. And then I'm gonna add this column to calculate position difference with this formula you see here. You sort this and then you'll easily be able to see which queries you lost the most positions for over time. And this is really gonna help you pinpoint which content is in most in need of a refresh because it's lost organic position. Now those two strategies can potentially net you a lot of opportunities for refreshes. And of course, we don't have all of the time in the world. We have limited resources. So we're gonna need to prioritize. And one of my favorite ways for prioritizing is by conversions. Now every company keeps track of this a little bit differently, but one common way I've found is by tracking your goal conversions in Google Analytics. By doing this, you're gonna be able to see things like conversion rate and total number of goal completions right alongside your sessions and other metrics in reports that you probably look at all the time like your landing page report. The reason I wanna prioritize pages that have the highest conversion rate is because by increasing the traffic to those pages, I'm going to get the most amount of conversions possible. Another tip for prioritizing is by trending topics. So let's say for example, you're in your Google search console, you see a query where its impressions have spiked, but you're ranking pretty much the same for it. That could indicate that the topic is trending and you might wanna piggyback off of that. And the third tip for prioritizing is just to be in tune with your business's priorities. There are probably certain topics that your business cares about more than others at any given time and that is a totally valid way to prioritize. Okay, so you have your refresh opportunities, you have them all prioritize. The next step is to execute. How do we actually go about refreshing content? What does that process look like? And there are three main questions I wanna ask here and that's what's table stakes, what's gonna give us a competitive advantage and what's gonna help us maximize conversions. So let's start with table stakes. Because we're talking about organic search traffic decline, one of the things that I wanna know is well, which queries did we lose the most positions for? Now this screenshots likely gonna look familiar. That's because we're gonna use the same process as we just used in Google Search Console. The only difference is that instead of looking at traffic and data for the entirety of our blog, we are going to filter by the URL that we're refreshing and that singular URL. So what we're gonna be left with is a list of queries that that particular post has lost the most positions for over time. That's really gonna help us point us in the right direction and see what we actually need to improve on the page. Another thing I like to do is just Google the terms that my page is targeting and seeing what is ranking. If not us, then who and what are those pages look like? This is a good way to get Google's understanding of what the standard is for this query. Another step that I like to take in the refresh process is seeing if there are any consolidation opportunities. So to do this, I go into Google Search Console, I filter by query and I see if there are multiple pages on my site that are vying for that term. It could be the case, not always, but it could be the case that there are opportunities to consolidate those posts into one stronger post rather than multiple potentially weaker competing posts. Another thing that I think is table stakes in addition to query targeting is internal linking. And I think a lot of people assume that because a page has been on your site for a long time, it already has all the internal links it needs. And more often than not, I actually find that there's more opportunity here. And one of my favorite ways for finding those opportunities is by using a Google Search operator, like you see here. What you'll probably get back is a list of URLs, at least a couple, where there's opportunity to go in and add more links to the page that you're refreshing. And this is so important because internal links are a big contributing factor to ranking, so we wanna make sure we have this base covered. And it's likely also the case that your post already has some internal links to it, in which case I like to use refreshes as an opportunity to audit those links. You can do that with a crawler like Screaming Frog, and Seer has a really great guide to helping you through that, making sure that your links aren't broken, that they're not going through redirects, and that they have descriptive anchor text or some things that I like to check into. The next question we wanna ask is what's gonna give us a competitive advantage? One of my favorite ways to give my refreshes a competitive advantage is by including original research. Now you definitely don't have to use a fancy expensive firm like Forester to do this. A lot of times I find that companies are sitting on a lot of data themselves. And to take this as an example, Shopify's content marketers last year worked alongside of our data science team to publish this BFCM by the numbers post. But even if something like that is a little bit too high of a lift and you need something that's a little bit more manageable, you can always do your own original research by using free tools like Google Forms, SurveyMonkey, and Typeform. Another thing that I like to do to help my refreshes stand out is to include original expert quotes. So if you're not sure where to get these, I have a few tips for you. Try going to your sales team. They might love to connect you with a prospect to contribute a quote.  Same with your success team with your customers. You can post a call for quotes on your own Twitter and LinkedIn profiles and get those from your own network. And if your company has a podcast, I would definitely recommend going through those transcripts and seeing if there are opportunities to pull quotes from that. And it has the added benefit of promoting your podcast as well. So I wanna switch gears a little bit because so far we've talked a lot about how to improve our rankings, but I think refreshes are also an opportunity to evaluate how is this page gonna show up in the search results. So here you see an example of FAQ schema. This is something we implemented on our page and we were lucky enough to get this kind of question and answer accordion style feature in our search result. That was able to get us a lot more clicks than we were getting with just a standard result. And the same idea goes here. This is how to schema, but it's exactly the same kind of idea that we're going for. It's taking up more real estate on the search results. It's a little bit more eye-catching. We're getting more clicks because of it. Another thing that my team started doing is adding these jump to links. And we originally did this for user experience. We wanted to make it super easy to have readers be able to navigate throughout the page, especially on longer posts. So you see here this table of contents. You click on one of those and it takes you down to that section of the page. But we also noticed that this was having the added benefit of showing up these little site links in our search results listing, which is pretty cool. If you're interested in learning more about this and structured data in general, I would definitely recommend checking out Google's search gallery to get the code. And if you wanna test the code, going to Google's rich results test. The next question I wanna ask here is what's gonna help us maximize conversions? We wanna make sure we're not only ranking better and getting more traffic, but that we're funneling that traffic to the right places. So one of my main tips here is just adding call to actions. So tip number one, I always like to make sure that there is a call to action. Tip two is to make sure that that call to action has clear and compelling messaging. Spend a little extra time on this. I would also try multiple placements. So instead of just having a CTA at the end, I'll try one a little bit higher up on the page too. I personally also like to be mindful of funnel stage. So for example, when I'm reading a top of funnel blog post, I personally find it a little bit jarring and a little too salesy to see a buy now or schedule a demo CTA when I'm just reading for information or inspiration. So I like to take my top of funnel articles and do CTAs that are like top of funnel kind of gated pieces or link those to mid funnel assets and then take my mid funnel assets and use those to link to bottom funnel offers. It's just a little bit more of a natural way to lead people down your funnel. And then the last tip is to make the offer relevant. This is probably common sense, but I think it's worth mentioning. You can see here on the right that the future of retail 2021 download this report, that's our CTA. And the topic of the blog is omnichannel trends to look for in 2021. It should come as no surprise that this CTA gets clicked on quite a bit. And it's because of how relevant that offer is to the topic of the page. Okay, so we're at the final step of this process and that's iteration. And that's really here to underscore the fact that the refresh process is never really done. Typically what we find is that we'll publish a refresh and we see really quick gains, which is awesome. This is a real example of a refresh that we published recently and we saw a 207% gain in month over month traffic, which is fantastic. And then we get excited, we wanna check our total, our total site traffic month over month. And then we're met with something like this, where we're left wondering, why on earth are we still stagnating? Why are we doing a little bit worse even? This is the point I always need to remind myself that SEO is a lot like owning a car.  Your old decaying traffic is constantly working as a traffic detractor and your new and refresh content is typically acting to add traffic to your totals. And those two things are constantly working against each other, which is why it is so important to prioritize refreshes. So if you come away with nothing else, come away and remember these three main steps to the process. And that's number one, make a habit of identifying posts where your position and traffic have been declining over time. Tip two is to make sure you get the table stakes right when you're executing these, but then go above and beyond and build a moat by including things like expert quotes and FAQ schema. And number three, keep iterating. Remember that content requires constant maintenance if you want it to keep bringing in that free traffic to your site. Thank you.


Yesterday, I was coaching a group of facilitators, they're all consultants, and I was coaching them on how to raise their day rates, so how to make more money per day. And I started to notice a pattern while I was coaching these people, and I've noticed this pattern before, but I've never put words to it, and it's also something that I've never heard anyone talk about before. So I think it's maybe kind of something that most of you won't know about. So I noticed a pattern in the people who had low day rates versus the people who had high day rates. Now, there's a lot of things that lead to that, but there's just one thing that I think is super important. And that is that the people with high day rates tend to invest more in themselves. They tend to invest a higher percentage of the money they're earning in educating themselves versus the people who are not making much money. Now, I know you might say, yes, but the people who have more money will spend more money on themselves. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying even when these people who are having the high day rates today, even when they were starting out, they were still spending more on themselves than the people who are stuck in the low day rates. And I realized that reflected back on me when I was 20, when I was basically making no money, when I was working in a bar, when I was working in restaurants. I remember the first like thing that I bought when I made my first paycheck was an online course on copywriting. And that like took all of my money for the month that I could have been spending on drinking, having fun or whatever. And I didn't even think about it. I was just like, yeah, I want to learn this thing that will help me make more money. And that was just the end of it. I wasn't, I wasn't overthinking it. And I realized talking to the people, we were in this group coaching call, maybe you can show like what that looks like. It's like a zoom call and I'm coaching these people. And I started asking people like the people who had the high day rates, how much do you spend on yourself per year when you weren't making much money? Like how much did you buy any courses? Did you buy any books? Did you go to any conferences? Did you, did you have a coach? Did you have a mentor? All of this kind of stuff. And by the way, there's actually a different point coming up. It's not just the point that they spend more money because they spend more money on themselves. They also are willing to ask more money from their clients without feeling weird. So, you know, when one of them spends 5000 on coaching or like on personal development coaching, they don't feel as bad asking 5000 for their day rate to a client to do something else buying things for yourself and investing in yourself and spending money on services and coaching services for yourself actually sort of remove some of the barriers that you might have asking clients. Now let's look at the people who are with low day rates. And the thing is, these are people who've actually, they're at the same point in their career. This person's been working in the industry for 10 years. This person's been working in the industry for 10 years. Maybe their skills are somewhat comparable, but this person's making less than this person, even though they also live in the same country, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Now, this person, and when I ask them questions, they're a lot more cheap with investing in themselves. And they're the type of person who will look at a course and it's like $500 and they're like, that's not worth $500. I can do that research myself online. So they would rather spend like three or four weeks doing all the research themselves than spending the $400 and just getting all the information. Or they would rather, like if there's a coach and the coach costs $500 an hour or something ridiculous, which by the way, good coaches cost even more than that, they will look at that and say, no, like I'm not spending that. Like that's a ridiculous amount per hour. I would rather like read all these books and figure this stuff out for myself. The problem is that they're not taking shortcuts. That one coach for one hour could maybe bring them two years ahead of where they are today by just spending that $500. Instead, they actually use all their time and have to go to all this trial and error. But the main problem is because they're so stingy with themselves, they are also scared to ask clients for a higher rate. They're not used to thinking about the value of money and how much it is actually valuable for clients just to spend money to get ahead and to get somewhere quicker. And so that was one of the things I noticed. This mindset, the people who spend a lot on themselves in terms of education, in terms of coaching, they have a lot of an easier time asking clients for money. I'll give you a good example for me. So I was kind of stuck at a 15k day rate for a while. And then I got this public speaking coach to help me. He's actually coming next week. But his day rate is 35,000 euro per day to train me in public speaking. And the second I saw that I was like, hell, I want to now start charging 35k per day. And it immediately changed my mindset. Really, it immediately changed my thoughts on where the ceiling is for how much I want to ask clients to book me. And literally, like my next workshop that I'm doing is going to be 35k. So really, that's one thing to think about. When you're thinking about how you invest in yourself, the real key here is if you're not willing to invest in yourself, you'll attract those types of people to you as well. You're going to attract clients that don't really want to invest in the things that you do. And if you're also the type of person who really nitpicks at price and you're always like looking to make sure you get all the value out. And if you don't get exactly what you want, then you want to refund or you're going to write a bad review, you're going to also attract those exact types of clients to you because you waste too much time on that kind of thing. I've been to conferences where maybe over the four days or I've been to retreats or I've had coaches where maybe out of all of the hours that I've had with them or at the conference, maybe only one minute of it was valuable. And to me, that's okay, I've got all the value I need. And that's what these high day rate people, that's how they think, how can I extract the value out of this and move on? Whereas the low day rate people tend to be the type of person who's like, okay, well, I've been talking to this person for an hour, but like the last 10 minutes, I don't feel like I got the value. I want that last 10 minutes of money back. And you're going to attract exactly that type of client to you. So with this video, what I'm trying to tell you, and there's really no, I have no goal for making this video.  My goal is to help you understand that one of the things that might be holding you back from getting a higher day rate, and one of the things that might hold you back from even asking for a higher day rate is that you also are the type of person who doesn't spend on yourself. So even if you're just starting out, even if you're a beginner, think about what things can I be doing or what things am I not doing? Because I'm being a little bit cheap about my own education. And what things could I be doing that sort of could break that barrier to me asking other people for that day rate for myself? That's the whole video. I have no idea if it makes sense, but if the point gets across great, if not, I love you anyway. Bye everyone.


Hi there, I'm Caitlin Hossam and we are here at Bradford Woods in Martinsville, Indiana talking about goat grazing. So I've always loved goats and I used to work at a dairy, a small dairy operation and that's kind of where my love for goats really was born and decided I wanted them to be part of my life. So a couple of years ago I got goats of my own and started thinking, what can I do with these goats? So I have received a SAIR grant to explore goat grazing as a tool to remove or reduce invasive plants and that's kind of what we're out here doing today. So we're here at Bradford Woods and we have a fenced in acre and a third and we are trying to answer a few questions. First what will the goats eat? Second how well do they eat it or what's the impact that grazing has on these plants? So tracking changes over time, what's the short term and the long term benefit or impact? And also what is the best goat to land ratio when doing something like this? The second part of the grant is kind of telling folks that goat grazing is an option to remove or reduce your invasive plant problem and also helping those folks who might be interested in doing this as a business. The project calls for 10 goats to be out here on an acre and a third and I realize that that's kind of too big of a space for 10 goats so we're experimenting with what size paddock is the perfect size for 10 goats saying how quickly they can clear it by clear I mean you know five six feet and down that's what a goat can reach. So how quickly they can clear it in a reasonable amount of time thinking if you were going to be doing this as a business you want to clear something as fast as you can so yeah the idea is that all the vegetation about five six feet and down will be gone and it would be but we want to make sure that we do it in an efficient way so that's kind of part of the experiment here.