Good day, fellow investors. When it comes to Chinese stocks everybody is saying stay away from that, it's a fraud, but what if Warren Buffett owns 8.25% of the company? Charlie Munger owns the company. Then we have to also look at from a different perspective. Further, what if the company is very, very similar to Tesla, but profitable? It's actually the leader in electric vehicle sales in the globe, is investing similarly to Tesla into battery factories, electric buses, Skyrail, not the boring company, has a much better financial situation and as I said, Warren Buffett is invested in it. It's always risky. It is selling mostly cars like Tesla, but then some people say it's a data company. But let's focus now on what is there and let's see whether this is something that fits your portfolio or not. I don't know who will win the electric vehicle race, who will be dominant in 5 to 10 years, but the key is to understand the risk and reward and see how that fits your portfolio. That's what investing is all about. 10 years ago, it was a positive risk reward for Warren Buffett. He took the bet. He did really, really well. And the management says they want to increase sales about 7 times over the next 6, 7 years, become a 1 trillion Remymbi company from the current 120 billion sales. So that's huge upside. If they make that by selling cars, selling batteries, they're entering into deals with Toyota, some other Chinese car companies and they're creating batteries, they have the technology, they're doing buses, garbage trucks. So they're doing a lot of things that Tesla is also doing, but let's say on a much, much less fancy, unglittering way. They're simply doing it, it's a business and they treat it like a business, not like we are doing who knows what. So that's a difference, perhaps also a difference in culture, but Buffett doesn't own Tesla, Buffett owns this. Let me give you an overview of the company and then we'll finish with the risk and reward, the financial analysis and how could this fit your portfolio from an investment perspective. Let's start. Alright, so let me give you an overview of what BYD is. The interest of the Chinese government is to get rid of oil because of environmental issues and because they don't have it, they don't have much of it, so it's much better if they could switch to some new technologies that would be beneficial also for the development of China because of the technology component of it, but also form an environmental perspective. China is a communist country, so what they say has to be done if they say no more fuel engines by 2030, so it will be. We'll see whether it will be profitable for China or not. However BYD gives you exposure to that is the largest EV battery producer in China which gives it an advantage, as said Berkshire and Margar are invested. Also Li Lu with Himalayan capital. So they get sales from automotive and related products, 59%, 34% it from handset components and assembly services, so they service the smartphone industry and then rechargeable batteries just 7%, but a lot of these components are growing fast, still growing fast, revenues are growing fast, so BYD is a fast grower and if it continues to grow at 20-30% over the next 5-10 years which is the goal of the management, this could be a 5-10 vaguer over the next few years. Currently it is in a downturn, smartphone shipments are down, electric vehicles are down and following the stock is also down because the market is always so focused on the short term. If next quarter is bad, let's sell, sell, sell, sell and then again in China stock market investing is not really long-term, a weekend is very very long-term so a lot of gambling, nobody wants to hold something that has the chance of going down which creates opportunities for long-term investors like Buffett invested in 2008. So the developments for example something very interesting, they plan to do an IPO of the battery business by 2022 to separate it from a car supplier and really give perspective on what the company is really focusing on which is batteries and that would separate the low margin business cars, highly competitive to something where they have an advantage for now, they have the supply chains, they have the production capabilities and they can supply those batteries to a lot of car makers and they are making deals with car makers to help them and become actually a battery company, not so much a car company even if they make cars, they also make buses, they also make trucks but it's all in a starting point, I don't know whether they are doing it to learn about the technology, to learn about the supply chain or really because they want to make it profitable. They are profitable now thanks to subsidies in China but those are slowly disappearing so we'll see how this fits the long-term. However the company evolved from doing batteries for your Motorola Razr to creating electrical vehicles cars. So it's a fast-growing company with capable management that really did good things over the long-term. The plan is to continue to grow, they have Skyrail which is another project that really didn't take off but if the government in China decides to build a lot of these one rail, mono rail, Skyrails and they get orders then they might do really, really good. They are doing taxes in Montreal so they are even exporting e-trucks so they are building them in California so also U.S. company so they can also do sales there without the trade wars because they are actually building it from inside. So they are completing their battery recycling plant. They will have the same gigawatt capacity of Tesla when they finish their currently constructed plants. 2020, 2021 also the CAPEX might be lower that should increase profitability if they don't enter into a new CAPEX cycle depending on what the market is saying. So just wanted to give you an overview here. It's not smart to go into the details of everything what is the profitability because it's actually the macro bet that means here. Is the management going to deliver of the promises or not? So it's an interesting comparison also to companies like Tesla. The company is profitable currently even if sales have dropped there have been profits. It's growing book value over time and not diluting shareholders which is also very, very important. So an interesting play let's conclude with the financial investment thesis. So from an investing thesis perspective I think that the upside is really there. If you look at the stock price it's 16 billion the market cap. If they really increase sales 7 times over the next 5 to 10 years it's very likely that the market cap will also increase 7 times. So this is the investment thesis. The upside 7x upside compared to what is the maximum loss. The maximum loss is unlikely to be 100% because somebody will come will take it over because of the technology because of the battery factories because of the exposure to the future tailwinds. So just the key thing to understand here is upside 7x, 10x, 5x over the next 5 to 10 years downside 30, 50, 70% and the downside is exerberated it's already 50% down from the highs of a few years ago because actual car sales in China have really, really slowed down. If we look at the latest developments, the latest sales we see how some things are good, electric vehicles are sold really well and still growing but some other things are really down. So it's always very difficult to sell cars. It's in a downtrend, the automotive industry is in a downtrend globally. So if you're not ready to buy now and add more in the downturn you might do as I do, I'll put this on the watch list I'll watch it over the next year or two and then if it really hits bargain, bargain, bargain territory then I might even dip my toe into it when compared to other, all other investments, potentials out there. Charlie Munger is really specific how the company has great management that can deliver on what they are doing which gives it an advantage against other companies. The quality of the cars isn't stellar, the quality of the batteries is already something better, something more important but they are learning, developing and if you have a lower cost base perhaps in China then in the US then you can do those things. So there is not really something to hold on like to call it a margin of safety technology can change, subsidies change, China government might change but their policies are very pro-electric vehicle and the upside will never be linear, it is always undulating and if you buy in a downturn which we are now already given the decline on the stock price you might do very, very well in the future. So this is BYD perhaps an idea to look elsewhere, it's traded OTC it's traded in Hong Kong so again you need an international broker or a good American broker to buy it which means it's not on the radar so much of Wall Street which might make it much more undervalued for the potential upside. Thank you for watching, looking forward to the comments and I'll see you in the next video.


At the beginning of the 19th century, most people in the western world had a solid theory about our origins. All creatures were formed by a single creator. But then, in 1831, a 22-year-old student decided to go on an expedition that would change everything. The young man spent years on remote islands, investigating living organisms and taking careful notes on their differences. Very close to five long years, the man returned home. He organized his findings and started to write his own theory on the origin of species. Decades later, in 1859, Charles Darwin, supported by the work of Alfred Wallace, challenged the status quo with his theory of evolution, based on natural selection. Natural selection is the process through which populations of living organisms adapt, reproduce and change. This is possible because organisms evolve when random mutations happen in the DNA of reproductive cells. Stored in cells, the DNA contains instructions that determine an organism's characteristics early after conception. For instance, two animals with particular features can have a baby with very special ones. Since most of us are in competition for limited resources, territory or potential partners, certain traits are beneficial while others are not. And when the survival of one is challenged by the presence of another, some can get by as they are, while others must adapt or they will die out. One way to adapt is to specialize for particular ecological niches in order to survive and reproduce. Over time, it may be that there are certain mutations that later happen to improve one's ability for reproduction. If these particular traits are also heritable, that is passed from parent to offspring, then there will be a reproductive advantage, and that's what modern evolutionary theory defines as fitness. The phrase survival of the fittest stands for the process within a population where fit variants leave reproductive copies of themselves and less fit variants reproduce less or disappear. Over generations, fit traits become the dominant variation in a population and can eventually emerge as a new species, a group of similar organisms who interbreed with each other and know others. And as all of this happens in the surroundings of the organism, which may change at any time, it's their natural environment that selects for how successful a species is at reproduction. And this is why the entire process is known as natural selection. One famous real-life example is the story of peppered moths, which populated the United Kingdom with the perfect texture to blend in to their natural environment. In the 1800s, the Industrial Revolution then changed that. Factories and homes darkened the skies, and the smoke from coal blackened everything. Over time, the tree barks also became darker, and white moths were more visible to predators, while the less prevalent black moths became invisible. As a result, peppered moths were more likely to be eaten, and dark ones ended up having a reproductive advantage. By 1970, in some regions almost all moths had dark wings. They were not stronger, not faster, not smarter, but simply fitter. As humans started paying attention to the environment, this tendency reversed. Today, mostly white moths dominate in the UK again. Random genetic mutations were giving dark moths a reproductive advantage in a certain environment for a certain period of time. What are your thoughts? Are all species related? And if so, do all stem from the same single origin? And if that's the case, how do we solve the chicken and egg problem? Share your thoughts in the comments below. If you like how we explain complicated ideas in simple cartoon animation, you can support us. Visit patreon.com slash sprouts. Just visit us, learn how it works, and what's in it for you. We hope to see you there. And if you are a parent or educator, check out our website, sproutschools.com. There, you can find this and other video lessons, additional resources, and classroom activities.


Educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tygruses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see. With Larry Pezzavento all now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now, Larry Pezzavento. OK, good afternoon, folks. We have an interesting chart that was sent to us by one of our listeners going back, showing historically what happened when we had another one of these really bad debt problems where they increased the ceiling by quite a bit. Of course, it was in 2011 during Obama's years. And that's when we had a national debt, I believe, of around $4 trillion. And now we're at $31 trillion. So the national debt, you can see in that year of July, this is where the top was made right back in here. That's when the debt ceiling was passed. And you can see the big drop that we had into October of that year, and then a movement back up. So all I'm saying is the news will probably be out. And we have an incredibly bullish market today as opposed to a bearish market yesterday. And that tells us that the cycle that we thought was going to happen on yesterday certainly didn't happen. We had a really nice profit in the NASDAQ that turned into a small loss. But that's neither here nor there. Even the Russell is strong today, reaching back to those levels in the S&P around that $41.75 that are interesting. But there's really, we have this much strength early in the morning. It's really amazing to see that the stock market can continue to go higher as we go each day. Now, I want to go over that trade here in the NASDAQ because I've had several people asking me why it didn't work. Well, the gold worked, the Euro worked, the bond worked, and the court haven't been filled on the court yet. But let me post this chart. I remember we've had a lot of movement here because this is just a short-term chart to where we were high. This was our high yesterday. And the market came all the way down. It dropped about 50, a little more than 50 handles, taking out this low today at $14.75. And then it took off. That's why our stops were right there. And of course, we didn't get anything on the long side. We didn't get hurt too bad on the short side. So when these patterns fail, you just got to stand aside and not even worry about it. And let's look at another one here that we're watching here today. This happens to be a weekly chart on corn. I feel very strongly about this trade.  It hasn't been filled yet. It came within two cents of the price that we wanted to buy it at. It's rallied a little bit from that level, still down on the day. But this is a perfect setup. And remember, when these setups fail, stand aside, get out of dots, because they don't work. That's the main thing that you have to realize when you're watching these things that this is what you have to worry about. So we have the same thing going on in soybeans, the same thing going on in corn. And if it fails, it fails, and away it goes. So that's neither here nor there. So just remember that. Now, we've got an interesting chart here from the DAX, very, very colorful chart that shows this DAX, the German DAX, in a beautiful, a triangle formation. As you can see here, the tops, how symmetrical they are, just absolutely perfect. And then you have the Gartley buy-bottom right here. There's your 61% retracement. And I don't know where it's happened since that time, but my guess is it's probably moving to the upside. But look at these trend lines.   There's drive one, drive two, excuse me, one, three, five pattern, one, three, five pattern there. And on the downside, you've got a one, three, five pattern. So that's just on the German DAX. And since we're over there, we don't have to fly back. We'll just take a look at the FTSE. Now the FTSE is also showing the fact that there's probably some type of a buying thing coming in today. Let's take a look at it. You'll be able to see where we are and there's where we are. There's your big move down. Look at the double bottom down here, folks. That's a classical double bottom.  If it's a real double bottom, it's gonna stop right there. And if it's not, it's gonna collapse through there. So that's really the definition of a double bottom. Now, when Andrew Lowe did his book, The Non-Random Walkdown Wall Street, he quantified all those numbers. In other words, how far does it have to go below the double bottom before it's not a double bottom? And the answer to that, folks, is 1%. And boy, that gives you a lot of really good information. So let's remind ourselves that all this is based on the mathematics of the market. And by golly, that's what you should be paying attention to. So that's pretty much it. But this pattern that we had here, you can see how I'm gonna get this up here to show you that this was what we were looking at. And I assumed it was gonna be right, but it is totally wrong. You can see this move right here. We went up to it. We dropped over $2,000, three times, folks, and ended up with a loss. And there's nothing you can do about that because we were looking for something like this. And in fact, it started pretty good. We moved our stop as close as we could possibly get. And we're trading something that's worth $130,000, $160,000, if you're only risking 400, that's not a bad deal. So that's why we use stops is because it prevents you from getting wiped out. And as long as you can do that, you're gonna stay in the game. And that's the best part of doing this is the fact that it keeps you in the game. And that's why. Let's remind ourselves, Todd. Remember yesterday, one of the reasons why we were looking at the market for the NASDAQ and we were showing that one or two stocks were running the NASDAQ and that one stock that was running the NASDAQ yesterday was Nvidia. But what happened today, all the Nvidia's buddies came along and they all went up. And that's why the NASDAQ exploded to the upside. I mean, that's what you're looking for. So those are the things that I'm paying attention to here this morning. And I'll show you one that I thought was going to be an absolute beautiful trade. And by golly, it lasted for about 20 points. And then it was no good. And that was selling the NASDAQ up here at this level of 16,000 with a stop at 16,000. They will be right back,<PHONE_NUMBER>. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals. What is behind the Tiger Forex Report? For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability, 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's daily market newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today, and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Three, that's one, eight, seven, seven, nine, two, seven, six, six, four, eight, internationally, at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, we're back folks when I wanna focus on the Euro here because it has been dropping considerably. It does two things on this chart. As you're watching, you can see the big A, B, C, D that is formed on the downside. We had the three, eight, two rally and then of course, it's continued to break down. And we're getting very, very close to some pretty good support here in the Euro. The Eurus dollar, it just really goes, excuse me, I have a look, those of Palo Verdes have hit me a little bit today, but it goes a little bit lower and then we should have some support about another 50 pips lower in the Euro so we wanna be covering that short here, either today or tomorrow. As you can see how many days it's been down. So usually 10 days is all you're gonna get in a move to the downside. So we haven't issued the order to buy it yet, but it's getting very, very close, probably some time today. I've been asked to show a chart here of a Facebook, also known as Meta, and we'll get up so you'll be able to see this in just a moment. And we'll see there's, all this is doing now folks is it's making a rally. Notice the move to the downside was quite substantial and I'll be rallied up to the 50% level, very little pattern in here folks. This is mainly the first part of this probably short covering, but we have no ABCD at all in here. That it's just like it was all the way down. So what we're doing now is we're back into this area where that gap occurred. If you remember, well, it doesn't show because it's a shorter term weekly chart. There was a gap in here when they had the really bad news now with this artificial intelligence that's going on out there. It's brought stock up to the 50% level. So that's what we're paying attention to. Someone just asked me if I'm really bullish and the answer to that is no, I'm not.  I took the small loss in the NASDAQ, but the Russell position course made a great deal of money because it was the one that has rallied the least of all the things that we're looking at. Now I've got to switch gears here folks and I don't want to step on anybody's toes, but someone asked me and they sent me this chart and they I'll show you what it is. And I'm just going to go through my two cents worth to see what it is. This is from the Elliott wave newsletter that was sent out yesterday or the yesterday because I worked on it last night and it shows this triangle that is there. This is a ascending pennant is what it is. It's actually, well, that's what they called it. The person asked me, how did I make any sense out of that? He said, because you talk about ABCDs all the time and I don't see any ABCDs or any patterns on this. And I said, well, I said all they're doing is connecting these lines from highs to lows, but they're not telling you what they're looking at. I mean, as far as that, so all I did was I went in and I just drew the lines just like I thought I like I do every day, nothing any different. You'll get up here and oh dear, what do we got here? Hold on, hopefully this will work out. There we go. So here's my version of what they're trying to tell you. There's the lines that I drew on top. First of all, as you can see the first, that folks right there is a perfect ABC. There's ABCD garly and it's right at the 61% retracement. That leads to an A, B, C, D to the upside, right up in here in this area right here. You can also look at it really closely on the lower one. You can see the three drive to a top that is forming. That's the one we were looking at yesterday, okay? So that's what we were looking at. And if you look, and this is the larger ABCD, right here, I didn't even draw that in because, well, I did it here. There's your A, B, C, D and it all measures up into this zone, but we went popping through here today with this all this volatility. And so my guess is with a high probability it's either today or tomorrow, you're going to see a pretty big reversal in this market and it was going to be a, I think it will be historic, but again, it could be 100% wrong. Well, let's call 90% because I always put a stop and protect the things that we're looking at. But let's move on and talk about the corn market one more time because this is going to be very important in the updated newsletter tonight because we got our fill in the soybeans, but we did not get our fill in the December corn. This came within two cents of our actual low nuts only rallied eight or nine cents since that time. But it's a little frustrating when you think you're going to get filled and all of a sudden it's up $400 because you're only risking $400 on the trade. So now you have to wait for the market to come down to you one more time. And that's hard to do because you've got to exercise patience when you do this because if you don't, you're going to be sitting there with Jell-O in your hands and trying to put it into a cup and you want to put Jell-O in the cup before you try to understand what the heck is going on. I use Jell-O because it's shaky all the time and shades is formed most of the time. So that's the main thing is when you do this folks is you have to have patience when you're trading. When I worked here in this office right here was six years with my good friend Mark Douglas. The one thing that he exhibited was the fact that he was very patient when he was waiting to put on the trade. He never got upset or impatient or anything like that. He was right there on top of it. And that's why you've got to be able to do these things. Sometimes you're going to be wrong sometimes you're going to be right but that's neither here nor there. Now let's go to the gold market. Here's what we were looking at yesterday in the gold market. We're going to do two sections to show you where we were because it'll give you an idea of ABCDs. And this showed us yesterday is why we were bearish up here. It's the fact that you had a 61% retracement of the high that was right here and a 78% retracement of the high from here. And here's where we had the beautiful a little small ABCD right exactly at the 382. And folks when you see something and the reason why it's a 382 you see the double bottom again does not take it out. And that rallies up to the 382 that was a 2030 and that gives us a profit objective to the downside. So what we're going to do now is we're going to take a look at that just to see how well it turned out. And here it is, we're going to get it right here. And I still think we're headed lower but let's just wait and see. Because on this particular chart you can see the price level we're looking at was 1977.1 and the low today was 1978. Missed it by 90 cents. Now that probably is at the bottom but we've only rallied from that level only $11. And one would think with a move like that it would be really, really interesting to see if that's going to be the bottom or not. So we're still looking at that. Another reason is if you'll look at this 1.618 level right in here, that's it. So let's pay attention to that and we'll be right back. Gold report. As a precious metal gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. 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For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their tick on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, folks, our guest today is Stan Harley of the Harley Stock Market Letter and how are you doing, young man? I am just doing awesome, Larry. That's good to hear. Listen, why don't you go ahead and get started on what you're gonna be showing us today? I guess the 34-week, eight-month primary intermediate cycles and we still have right translation going. So what do you think here? We do indeed, Larry. What I thought I would do is start off with that cycle, of course. The 34-week cycle that I've talked about so much on the air is the dominant cycle that it contracts and expands. Most frequently, it's right at 34 weeks. Sometimes it expands by a 1.618 Fibonacci function to 55. Sometimes it contracts by 0.618 Fibonacci to 21 weeks. But nominally, I call it the 34-week cycle simply because that's the most frequent when it's plotted on the histogram. Here is a chart going back several years and I've noted with purple lines each of the occurrences of this cycle. Of course, the October lows from last year coincided with the cycle, but the mid-March lows also coincided and that happened to be a contracted function, a 0.618 contracted function down to 21 weeks of this same cycle. But the indications are certainly strong there that we bottomed and we've turned up and this is where it starts to get really interesting. First of all, let's look at the Dow. And my gosh, the Dow actually peaked coming off the October bottom from last year in mid-December. And this trend line that began from the November 2021 lows has been the governing overhead resistance line for the Dow Jones industrials and by extension the overall market. And we're trading a little bit below that trend line right now. My analysis suggests we are poised to break above that very, very shortly. And I'll show you why I think that's about to occur. This is something that, this is a topic you and I addressed in our previous segment a couple of weeks ago, but it's still instructive even through today, I find. This is the pattern from 2001 to 2003. And what I found just by visual inspection is it's remarkably similar to what's going on in the present timeframe exactly 20 years later. So that chart you see on the screen now is 20 years ago. Let's look at the current pattern. This is just before we came on the air. And as one can see, the highs and lows, particularly the lows, match up very nicely. In fact, not only very nicely, but virtually to the day. So what I've done here is I've put the two S&P charts on top of one of each other. And the pattern from 20 years ago is on the top. The current timeframe is on the bottom. And then the purple lines there line up the lows. And in some cases they're virtually to the day. 20 years ago, we bought on on October the 10th. And 2022 we bought on on October 13th. We had a mid-March low of 2003. We had a mid-March low in 2023. And the pattern suggests, as long as this analog remains in effect, that we'll be much higher from here. These pattern similarities I find are always interesting and they work until they don't. But right now, Larry, my gosh. It seems to be following the dance steps of exactly 20 years ago. And this will work, as I said, until it doesn't work. I think it's gonna work for several months. And then later in the year, as more people start recognizing it, it will probably cease to work. But right now it's working. And the pattern suggests we should be marching higher. And I think that's what's likely to happen. I have a question for one of our listeners. And that is, how much higher do you think this could go, Stan, in the S&P 500? Good question. And that's something I have thought a lot about. And in a future segment, we'll look at some charts and explore that. Okay. I think it's very possible. Let's look at the big five indices. The Dow, industrials, the transports, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and then New York Composite.  And I look at all five of those to ascertain either confirmation or divergences. The Dow industrials have retraced almost 60% of their January to October decline of last year. All the other benchmark indices have retraced less than 50%, the transports being the weakest. But with the Dow industrials having retraced almost 60, a few days ago it was even 60. I think it's likely, no, no, that's too strong of a word. Plausible, plausible, let me use that word. Likely. Throttle back, Stan. Plausible, the Dow could go to a new high. Wow. And maybe the end, and the other indices do not. And that happens in the next six to seven months. And that would really fit the pattern, the long-term pattern very nicely. And we'll show that in a future discussion. And I mean going back as in hundreds of years that would fit the pattern nicely. Oftentimes the Dow industrials are the last index to peak out in any market cycle. And I think that might, I think it's very plausible. I don't wanna say certain and I don't wanna say likely. But I could easily see the Dow being a solo performer in the new high ground in the next five to six months. S&P, NAS, New York Comp, Dow Transports, maybe not. But we've got lots of time to explore that one. Wow, that's really, really good. In the short term here, we've got right translation, evident in the trading cycle pattern. And you know from our past discussions, I place a great deal of emphasis on the notion of right and left translation to give me indications of whether or not I think this market is likely to have either lower or higher. From January of last year into the October bottom, we had a consistent left translation in all of the trading cycles. But from the October lows through the present timeframe, on the S&P chart, we've had consistent right translation, which is indicative of bull market structure. So that lends credence to my view, the market is likely to head higher. Well, it certainly has that appearance, but the right translation is such an important concept because it really gives you an idea of what direction we're looking at. We have a question for one of our listeners. Why doesn't Stain have a tie on today? Well, I am actually visiting family in Florida. Technology of Skype that we have, I'm able to be with you on the air today. But so I'm a little bit more casual today. Okay, good. Where are you in Florida, Stan? Panama City. Oh, okay, good. All right, let's continue. But they're very observant here. So they wanted to know why you were very casual today. So let's continue on with- Well, I got to be on my toes. The viewers are really watching me closely. Oh, listen, they listen to this over and over again and write it down. We're gonna be back with Stan Harley after paying two bills.<PHONE_NUMBER>. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com, educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. 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To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Hi folks, we're Stan Harley. Stan, how are you doing? You're looking pretty good, so let's continue. Doing just awesome, Larry. Absolutely. Let's take a look at a pattern that I find very interesting. The dominant cycle lows on the daily chart have been coming in at intervals of 49 to 50 trading days and there are multiples, 1.618 multiple and a two times multiple. As you can see going back the last couple of years, the lows have been coming in at 100, around 100 trading days, 99, 79, 80 and 49 to 50-ish. And this latest one, I thought we might see a cycle low towards the end of this week. That would have fit the pattern nicely, but we may have bottomed here just a few days ago and in that case, the cycle may have contracted to a 0.764 function. The operable function is 49.2. There's some Fibonacci math that goes into that but that appears to be what's taking place right now. Last month or so, the market has been trading sideways and my indicators attract price velocity and price range have been coming downhill. When a market trades, when indicators go down, price can either go down or go sideways. If it goes sideways, that has a profoundly bullish message. Yes, I agree with that. So for the bullish case, indicators come down the price does not go down, it goes sideways. That means once the indicators turn up, the market is likely to pop up and out of the trading range and rock and roll to the upside. And that's what I'm expecting. And I think a lot of folks are gonna be some pleasantly surprised, some not so pleasantly surprised. But I think we're going higher. And over the next several months, as I talked about earlier, I think there is a very plausible case of the Dow June industrialists to make a marginal new high in the months that come. What the fundamental catalyst will be, I don't know, maybe the Congress comes to an agreement on the budget and the debt issues and maybe Wall Street rejoices with that one. That would be the most likely scenario, but certainly as a technical analyst, I'm suggesting that we're poised to pop to the upside here very, very shortly and break out of this trading range. Wow. Now you have a little chart here on the Case Schiller home prices. Yes, last chart I thought we would showcase today, Larry, is the Case Schiller index. There are several Case Schiller indices. There is a National Index, which is what's on the screen right now. And then there are separately, both 20 regional indices and 10 indices of the largest metropolitan areas around the country. And they all tend to follow the same waveform. They moved up fairly, fairly concerted into a 2006 peak. Then we had a sharp pullback for about a little over five years in the 2012. And then we marched higher once again. And it appears to me that home prices have peaked. I was certainly looking for a peak towards between the middle to the latter part of the year 2022. It looks like we're seeing that now. Prices now are starting to pull back. And once we get a sustained break of that red line, which is an 18 month moving average, that will confirm the sell signal. And I think home prices are gonna head lower. They've run up an awful lot, particularly out in your area. Oh my gosh, Arizona has been the strongest real estate market in the entire USA. You could just close your eyes and buy anything in Arizona. And it went up, and it went up a lot, as you know. Yeah, so we actually had two people this week knock on our door, not realtors. People that wanted to buy a house in our, we're not an expensive area, but that knocked on our door to ask if we wanted to sell our house. You know, so I never had that happen before ever, even when I lived in Westlake Village, which, you know, stand that house I bought in Westlake Village for 32,000 back in 1965. Do you know what it's selling for now? I bought it, I paid 32 grand for it, 2400 square feet, four bedroom, three baths. I can imagine. 1.9 million, and that's down from where it was. Yeah. 1.9 million dollars. This trade ever made, now let it go. Well, on the screen here, the K-Shiller and X, there's a, without running indicators, not crunching any numbers, just a simple 18 month moving average. I find this works very, very well. Just note where the monthly price bars in blue cross either above or below that 18 month moving average. And you have a very simple, but very effective buy-sale signal for real estate. Note where the monthly price bars broke above the 18 month moving average. It happened several times. Back here in the 80s, it happened again in the late 90s and the early 2000s, and it happened again following the 2012 lows. That was your buy signal. Conversely, when price broke below the 18 month moving average, or when the blue lines broke below the red lines, that was a sell signal. And we saw that following the 2006 peak that summer. And boy, if you kept buying real estate on the way down, you got crushed into the 2012 lows. And then monthly price bars broke above that 18 month moving average in red, and we've been on a buy signal ever since. And right now, we are like right there, poised to break below the 18 month moving average. Let's see if it happens. If it rebounds off of it, well, then the buy signal is still in effect. On the other hand, if the monthly price bars break below that red 18 month moving average, that will confirm the sell signal and the highs that occurred in the summer of last year. That's truly an amazing one because it's certainly a contrary to what some people have thought, that's for sure. That's really good. Listen, I want to thank you for being our guest today. And we're gonna have you on again in a couple of weeks and I hope your travel works okay. And that you're out of the snow now, you know, to get any more snow until probably December back there in New Jersey. So you should be okay. Actually, we lucked out this year in Central New Jersey had no snow at all. Wow. It was a, since I've lived here, it's been a very, very mild, mild winter. You had more snow in Tucson than we had in New Jersey. Yeah, we did. We flat out did. We had three or four big snowfalls.  So it's not too much. We have a question for one of our listeners and that is what you're feeling on interest rates, whether we're gonna be going higher or lower in the bond market. Next time I'll bring some charts on to discuss that in greater detail, but just as a general statement, I think interest rates are longer term heading higher. There is, for the last 150 years or so, there's been a very clear 40 year cycle in the pattern of interest rates. The last pivotal turn was in 1981, when interest rates reached a high. Summer of 1940, about 40 years prior, interest rates reached a low, early 1900. Another low, 1861, they were high. So fast forward, March, 2020, that was about 40 years from the 1981 high, they hit a low and they're going up. So I think interest rates are gonna head higher, not for just a few years, but perhaps for a few decades. I mean, the last several runs went 40 years. Oh, that's where I see things heading. All right buddy, listen. 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The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. 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That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Okay, folks, I want to bring the last chart, which is the NASDAQ up into the viewing section here, because you can see here, the number that we had there at 14,494, that we hit three days in a row, backed off 40 handles or so from that level. We are now 200 points higher than that, folks, way above the 16,000 level. That means that this thing is going higher. How much higher? I don't know. We just had stand on the air and it looks like it's going to go considerably higher. Even the Russell, which we've been various for such a long time and hasn't rallied much, but has now moved started to move higher, tells us that maybe the stocks that we're lagging are going to be being pulled up by these NASDAQ stocks. So this is a considerably important breakout because we took out the 61% retracement of nine months ago and we took out the 50% retracement of 18 months ago and we're doing it with great volume and huge volatility to the upside. You know, the Dow Jones up about 500, the NASDAQ up 160, the S&P up about 80. These are not small numbers, folks. So that tells us that this is most probably a real breakout to the upside. So if you're going to fade it, make sure you put a stop in it and that'll keep you protected because you can be wrong a lot of times and use your stops, but you can only be wrong one time and not use a stop, then you're out of business. So that's why it's so very important to remember it's not how much money you make, it's how much money you don't risk. So I hope that gives you some indication of my feeling because I thought that this was going to be a chance for the market to go lower. I was wrong, I've been right on the gold, the Euro, the bonds, everything else, but I've been running on the stocks. We'll see y'all tomorrow, folks, with every day and an attitude of gratitude and may God bless.


Hi, I'm Stephanie Cadue, Minister of Children and Family Development. Families are the strong foundation of vibrant communities, and they help make BC an amazing place to live. That's why I'm excited about Family Day coming up on February 10th. It's a perfect day to spend some time with our loved ones, to build connections and have fun. And if you're looking for some ideas for your family, why not have a staycation in your community? I'm here at the Honey Bee Center in my neighborhood of Cloverdale in Surrey. It's a great place to visit. Here at the center, they really want the world to know how amazing honey bees are. Kids can check out the bees and bugs lab, parents can unwind in the tea room with honey, sweetened tea, and you can even take a course on how to become a beekeeper. I love it here because the whole family can learn about the important role bees play in agriculture and in nature. So on this Family Day, come to the Honey Bee Center. It'll be buzzing with activity. By supporting local attractions like this, you're helping support the vital tourism industry in our province, which is mostly made up of small businesses. So happy Family Day. And visit hellobc.com for some great ideas on how to celebrate with your family.