You know, I think true prophets don't make many misses, but any of us are capable because we are in flesh. We are new creatures in Christ, but we still have emotions sometimes that are wounded. Are there really false prophets in the Bible? Well, yes, there are. Hey, smart Christians, one of the things that I don't know if you all have paid attention or noticed that as people throw this word around false prophet, false teacher and so forth, when we talk about a false prophet, that is someone who gives a false prophecy. That's one of the definitions. To be a prophet or to prophesy or a prophet, the word simply means to inform, to tell, to utter, to give a revelation, a revelation of God. Now, the generic term can be used of anyone, whether they are a prophet of God or they could even be prophets of Baal. It doesn't matter. You are giving revelation or information, you're informing, you're telling about someone. Now, can you be a false prophet? Sure. The Bible even notes false prophets. What's happening though is that we are having people now who because today we have modern day false prophets who give these errant prophecies. There are those who will defend them or defend the supposed gift by impugning true authentic prophets of the Bible. They'll say things like these prophets gave words that weren't either true, they weren't sure of it, or they were false. The problem is though, that's not the case. There is no prophet of God, not one in the Bible that gave a prophecy that was not of God. But there are some false prophets who did give prophecies that were not of God and they were to be condemned. And we are still to refuse them. The Bible says that there's a person who claims to speak in my name and what he prophesies. That didn't come to be. Well, then that person has presumptuously spoken in my name. And because it didn't come to be, that person is not true. He's not a true prophet. As a matter of fact, he's even said that he needs to be killed. Now, we're not going that far. But the Bible says that do not fear him, do not listen to him. He does not speak for me. God has not changed that. God is not saying now, yes, it's okay to give a word, claim that it's from me. And if it doesn't come to be, then it's okay. That's not how that works. There are even some that will make the absurd claim that just because a person is called a false prophet, hey, there's still a prophet. Is a wrong prophet a false prophet? Deuteronomy 1822, if the prophet speaks in the Lord's name but his prediction does not happen or come true, you will know that the Lord did not give that message. That prophet has spoken without my authority and need not be feared. A, the Bible still calls him a prophet. But the key is they are false prophets. And what does God want you to know? The old prophet in 1 Kings 13 serves as an example for those who want to listen.  That person will be judged, the false prophet, but so too will you, heeding his word. And then the lesson that we see in 1 Kings 13 is that the man of God listened to the false prophet. What was the result? Well, the man of God died. That's the point. The point is following them is going to get you in a world of trouble according to God. So don't do it. Do not turn around and defend the false prophet by saying such things as though a person can give a false prophecy and not be a false prophet. That person needs to be quiet. He is not a prophet. He is not a prophet of God. He has spoken falsely and you cannot come back and say, well, God is infallible in his revelation, but the prophet can misunderstand it or give it falsely. The point is we're not impugning God's word. We're impugning you for giving the false prophecy in the first place. The point is you are not a false prophet. And what's happened is we've got people now going to the scriptures and picking out supposed false prophecies by men of God. For example, Nathan. The Bible tells us that Nathan is a prophet and David in 2 Samuel wants to build a house for the Lord. What happens? Nathan makes a statement and then some are going to say that this is a false prophecy. Remember, a prophecy is simply a declaration or utterance or revelation from, in this case, from God. Did Nathan give a revelation from God? In 2 Kings chapter 7, verse 2, David says, See, now I dwell in the house of Cedar, but the ark of God dwells within tent curtains. Nathan said to the king, Go do all that is in your mind for the Lord is with you. There are going to be those that will say that, see, this is a false prophecy. The question is, was this a revelation from God? Did God say, tell him that the Lord said to do this? No. All he simply says, the Bible recounts that David says, Go do all that is in your mind. Why? For the Lord is with you. The problem is though, this phrase, the Lord is with you, is not meant to be taken as a prophecy as those will say that because David makes a statement that the Lord is with you. Well, then he's simply saying the Lord has said this. That's not what it's saying. It's poor exegesis, it's isegesis, and it's trying to literally defend a false prophet for the sake of impugning a true prophet. First of all, we see this phrase in Genesis when Abimelech says the same thing to David, the Lord is with you. Is that Abimelech being a prophet or a given prophecy? No, he's making a statement. The same thing happens. David makes a statement. As a matter of fact, it's recounted a few times in 1st and 2nd Chronicles. Now, to prove this point of this phrase not being a prophetic phrase, just a statement, David says the same thing as recounting in 1 Chronicles 22. It says, Now my son, the Lord be with you that you may be successful and build the house of the Lord your God. Now, I want you to notice something, this phrase that I have highlighted to the right, which is, you see the tetragrammaton for the Lord. But then right here, it says, let me even highlight it in the blue so you can see it. It is Imach, this is with you, that same phrase. If we go back to 2nd Samuel 7, 2, it's the exact same phrase that's used here. Let me also remove this so I can highlight that point so you guys can see that as well. It's the exact same phrase, the Lord be with you. This is not a prophecy. David didn't give a prophecy to Samuel. He's just making a statement. The Lord is with you. It's a declaration. God is with you. You know who else that made that statement? Rahab the harlot. The Lord is with you, speaking in Israel. You see this statement recounted over and over again throughout scripture. So to say that this is Nathan when he makes a statement that do all that's in your mind for the Lord is with you, he's simply stating, go ahead and do it. The Lord is with you. The Bible does not recount every statement that Nathan says to be a prophecy when Nathan is speaking to his father. Is that a prophecy? No, Nathan's words all the time are not prophetic. Nathan has the ability to ask for food, to ask for water, to speak about his feelings, to talk about whether he can speak about whatever he wants to without it being regarded as prophecy. However, when he does prophesy, when the Lord does speak to him, notice what happens because in the very next passage, verse four, he says, but the same night the word of the Lord came to David saying, go and say to my servant, David, thus says the Lord, are you the one who should build from your house? And so what does they so what does Nathan do? He then gives the prophecy. This is a word of the Lord that Nathan gives. Do not listen to people when they tell you or they want to impugn Nathan for giving a false prophecy when he did not. Either they are being intellectual, dishonest, or they simply aren't understanding, maybe not even want to understand because they want to prove a point. This is not Nathan giving a false prophecy. Another example is in Acts 21-4. Remember what a prophecy is. In Acts 21-4, you've got these people who are disciples. And in verse 4-21, it says, after looking at the disciples, we stayed there seven days and they kept telling Paul through the spirit not to set forth in Jerusalem. They are saying through the spirit, obviously they understand some dangers are going to happen and they're telling him because of that not to go. Is there a false prophecy? Did God reveal something to them that was incorrect? Did they come to him and say, thus saith the Lord, you will not go there or you will not? Or if they said the Lord said you should not. They didn't even say you should not, which would not be a false prophecy. But they didn't say the Lord said you must not. You will not go. This is going to happen. They didn't say that. What they did state was their concern for him for the Lord. Paul goes anyway. Why? Well, remember when Paul is introduced to Christ, Paul is told that he's going to suffer things for that sake. And as a matter of fact, we have that. We have a recount of the Lord saying the same thing to Ananias in Acts 9, 16. He says, Well, I will show him how much he must suffer for my name's sake. And then we see Paul even giving a recounting of the sufferings that he has in 2 Corinthians 11, 20, 23. He says, Are they servants of Christ? What Paul says, I speak of as if insane, I more so in far more labors in far more imprisonments, beaten times without numbers often in danger of death. Five times I received from the Jews, 39 lashes. Three times I was beaten with rods. Once I was stoned. Three times I was shipwrecked. So Paul goes through a litany of things that he has to suffer. Even here in this case in Acts, he goes to a place and he is in trouble. He is, he is bound. He's beaten. He goes through all these things that he must suffer. They just simply warned him of that. They didn't want him to go. Were they wrong? No, they were not wrong. And they did not invoke the Lord. The Lord said, don't do this or the Lord said this. They didn't do that. And so the problem that we have guys is that we've got people now wanting to do the unthinkable to impugn legitimate prophets, people who actually heard the word of the Lord and delivered it correctly. And we're equating them, we're looking for a flaw, a chink in their armor to say that these other known false prophets of today are okay. They're on par because if these true prophets of God can make a mistake, well, then so too can these modern day prophets. The problem is the prophets in the Bible, the true prophets of God, not one of them made a mistake. Not one of them got it wrong. Here's what a prophet must do. There's only two steps. Hear what God said and say what he says. That's it, regardless of how confidently you say it, regardless of even if you believe it yourself. If you hear what he says and you say it, that's prophecy. And we'll know it's true because it comes about or it's backed up by the Scripture. That's it. And so be careful of people who are saying these things. And if you are one of those who are doing so yourself, be careful that you don't find yourself impugning the prophet of God, which by extension you're impugning God in his word by equating these known false prophets or liars with the true men of God. So are there false prophets in the Bible? Sure, they're called false prophets. They're called lying prophets. They're called prophets of them and they will have their reward. Do not be found occurring favor with them. Do not be found accepting them because it could be that the Lord is testing you as well as testing them. Amen.


The Lagos state government has formally received the letter of approval for the construction of the Lakey Airport. Minister of Aviation Hadi Siriki made the presentation to Governor Babajid-e-Sanmolu at this year's Lagos Economic Summit, TAG Ehingbeti 2022. Justin Akadonye tells us more. For over 20 years, the Lagos State Economic Summit, TAG Ehingbeti, has served as a beacon of change in helping to shape the state's public discourse over time. This year, the state is launching its development plan for the next 30 years to chart the path for sustainable socioeconomic growth. On the top agenda is the construction of the Lakey International Airport. The Minister of Aviation Hadi Siriki is here with some chairing news as he presents a formal approval to the governor. May it be beneficial to Lagos, to its people, its future, its fortune, to the country and to humanity. The Excellency. The Minister believes that the best way Lagos State can be linked to the rest of the world is through infrastructure and civil aviation. For the governor, Ehingbeti's summit, which is private sector-driven, has to a large extent achieved its purpose through the adoption and implementation of innovative ideas and suggestions. I'd like to emphasize and highlight the importance and centrality of civil aviation in the scale of things. The plan for 30 years is prodigious, years there is time, but all of us believe the Lagos can pull it. The summit has indeed served as a veritable, convenient platform for the best and the brightest in class, stakeholders' engagement, idea-focused, tailor-made development for Lagosians. On its development plan, as ambitious as revenue projection looks, the government shares insight on how it intends to achieve it. In terms of revenue, we are doing just about 2 percent of our GDP, leading cities around the world from what we see. We need to do more than that. So this vision says we should move it up to 5 percent. If we move it up to 5 percent, there will be significant amount of revenue. But it is not just the revenue of the state government that counts, because that revenue probably in taxes, about 20 percent of the people's earnings. To the extent that we are talking about over 200 resolutions over a number of years, and you have over 90 percent implementation, I don't think you can ask for anything more. And I was very impressed, I must say. The governor takes time to share thoughts and imputes of the youths while other discussions centered on how Lagos can become the world's best investment destination. Justin Nakadoni, plus the news Lagos.


Members of the business community came together in Bemidji to discuss the state of manufacturing. The Northwest Minnesota Foundation hosted Enterprise Minnesota who presented its findings from a comprehensive survey on manufacturing. The gathering featured local business and community leaders who shared their thoughts on the manufacturing sector. While there is optimism in the job sector, there is anticipation of a workforce shortage leaving communities to get creative. We're finding that communities like Brannard, Bemidji all over the state are really focusing together their economic development with the manufacturers, with the colleges, with chambers, and just business leaders to try to resolve this on a community-by-community basis. And there's some great things going on as our panel here in Bemidji will tell us today of collaboration. The survey also revealed that manufacturers have a high level of optimism, record revenues, profitability, and increased wages. If you enjoyed this segment of Lakeland News, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution to Lakeland PBS.


My name's Corey Chamberlain. I'm a software engineer at PagerDuty. Today I'm going to talk to you about poker, postmortems, and life.  Okay, most of you have played. Hopefully this talk is helpful for you and it's helpful for the people who've never played before. I'm not a professional poker player. I work on software. But I've taken a few courses and I've read some books and I've played a lot of poker. It's a serious hobby for me. I am, however, an expert on postmortems, having attended and caused quite a number of them in my travels. And my conclusion is that postmortems would be a lot better if they were run and attended by people who understood poker. So today I'm going to make you into those people. I submit that most postmortems as they exist today make us risk averse and that learning about poker can help us to mitigate. So first we're going to talk about poker. We're going to talk about the rules of the game and basic strategy. That's why most of you are probably here. Next we're going to talk about postmortems and how we can mess them up in unintuitive ways because we're not thinking like a poker player might. And finally we're going to talk about some other areas of life where thinking like a poker player can help you out. At the end of this talk you'll hopefully have a few ideas that you can take with you to your next poker game and maybe you'll gain some insights that you can take with you to your next postmortem. So poker. Poker is a game of numerous variants but it's typically played with the standard 552 card deck. There are usually some number of hidden cards, some number of rounds of placing bets on which player has the best hand, calling those bets or leaving the hand which we call folding. When the betting is all done the player that remains in the hand with the strongest five card hand wins all the money in the pot. The best hand. These are the hand ranks in a game of poker from the weakest hand to the best possible. It's not critical for this talk that you learn them right now or anything. It is pretty important if you want to play poker that you know which ones are better than which. Most are self-explanatory. A straight though is five in a row. A flush is five cards of the same suit. A full house is a pair and a three of a kind and they're like different. So maybe three fours and two fives. A straight flush is both a straight and a flush. The best possible hand in all of poker is 10 jack, queen, king, ace suited. And that's a special straight flush called the royal flush. And you're guaranteed to win if you have that hand. Within the framework of these rules many different variants of poker are played. But for the purpose of this talk we're going to focus on just one. No limit hold them is the most popular variant of poker today. It's called the Cadillac poker. If you buy a beginner book on poker or if you get into a course or you watch poker on TV, odds are that it's going to be no limit hold them. You really kind of have to go out of your way to avoid it. It's such a big part of poker. So let's talk about high level overview how no limit is played. Very first there's a round of blind bets. Two players called the big blind and the small blind put in a bet dictated by the table before they receive cards. These bets are made before each hand to encourage action at the table. So not everybody waits for the very best cards to play. They're usually used to set the buy in for the table and often players consider their opening bets in terms of how many big blinds they're putting in. The small blind is usually about half the big blind. Different tables have different blind levels so online you can get into a micro stakes game with big blinds of like two cents and a small blind like a penny. And then they go way, way up to like a couple hundred dollars or something. Live play usually starts at more like a dollar for the small blind and two dollars for the big blind. The blinds along with the whole betting order rotate around the table each hand. Next, everybody gets two cards. These are called the whole cards. Then starting to the left of the big blind and then working clockwise players either call the big blind, raise the bet or they fold.  Besides that though, once a bet makes it all the way around to a player who made that bet without being raised, the next stage of the hand begins. And the next stage here is called the flop. Three community cards, they're dealt face up. Eventually we're going to end up with five community cards are considered to be part of everybody's hand. So how it works is you take your whole cards plus the five community cards and you figure out the best possible five card hand that you could make and that's your hand. Anyway, after the flop, another round of betting occurs. It's important to note that from here on out, the player to the left of the button will start each betting round. So that means the button bets last any time after the flop and this is a really big advantage that we're going to talk about in just a minute. Then comes the turn. So after the turn, during the turn we get one more community card and another round of betting and then the final card is dealt on what's called the river and a final betting round occurs. If two or more players are left in the hand, we get a showdown where each player in turn reveals their hand and the best hand wins. The vast majority of hands do not get to this point. Usually one player is able to convince the other that he or she has a better hand and to fold. Most hands even in before the flop. Poker, it's a very simple game in a lot of ways. That's pretty much all there is to it. You can sit down at a poker table and you can pretty much play in about ten minutes. The rules aren't very complicated. The cards will come however they will and the only actual choices that you really get in the game of poker are to call to raise or to fold when it's your turn. However, those choices are enough to make poker a game that's dominated by skill over a long period of time. So what's the skill of poker? The skill of poker is making good bets. A player who makes better bets than their opponents will, given enough time, take all their opponent's money. So what are some ways that we can improve the quality of our bets? Here's a few tactical things. First of all, most beginning players play far, far too many hands. The goal in poker is not to win the most hands. It's to win the most money. You should play hands which play well post-flop. A tight player is going to fold 80% of the time before they ever commit money to the pot. As you improve, you can learn to outplay your opponents with a looser but still aggressive style of play and you'll still probably be playing far fewer hands than most beginning players play. At the end, I'll mention a few courses and books and they'll have recommended hand ranges for opening. But the general idea is it's a lot fewer than you would think. And the ones that are good are not necessarily intuitive. Somewhat counter-intuitively, most beginning players like to call too much. So they like to take weak hands and then call with them. If you have a narrow range of quality hands, you more often than not want to raise your opponent's wider range of weak hands because, for one, they're likely to call because beginning players like to call. And two, your smaller range of hands is likely to beat their hand. For example, many beginning players like to slow play a very strong hand pre-flop like ace, ace, or king, king. But that's the opposite of what you should do. You want to keep raising until you have exactly one opponent left since your hand has great odds against individual hands.  Finally, understanding position. Remember when we talked about how the betting order rotates around the table? It turns out that this is very, very, very important. The players who bet last have the most information. Therefore, you should be playing fewer hands in earlier betting positions. And you should be a lot more aggressive in later positions. It's hard to overstate how powerful it is that you get to decide what to do after your opponents have already committed their money to the pot. Let's say, for example, you have a hand like 8-7 suited. This particular hand performs very well in a pot with a ton of collars before you. But it's a really bad hand against a single opponent, since they're unlikely to give you enough money to be worth the slim odds that you hit either a straight or a flush. Suppose that you're the very first player to act before the flop. That's the player to the left of the big blind. We call them under the gun. So how does this play out? Well, you don't know what anybody else is going to do, but you think, this hand is OK. I've got a medium suited connector. That means I can get a straight or a flush from this hand.  And then the hand folds around to the player before the button. We call that player the cutoff. And that player raises the pot six big blinds. And naturally, everyone, after that player, folds because that player has represented a very strong hand. And so now it comes back to you. And your options are to either call that raise or to fold or, I guess, to raise yourself. You don't really have a choice but to fold, because it would cost you so much to continue to play, and you think that this hand is unlikely to beat a very strong hand that your opponent's representing. In this case, it costs you a big blind to learn the strength of your opponent's hand. Imagine, though, if you'd been on the button, everybody's hands at the table are the same, but you're over here. Everyone folds around to the cutoff, and they open at five or six big blinds, because nobody called before them. And you would know that you don't want any piece of that player. So you can fold right now, and you get to save your money. This little edge of knowing what most of the other players at the table are going to do, played out over many, many hands, ends up being really, really big. If you give an amateur player permanent position over a seasoned pro, the amateur is most likely gonna have a better day than the pro. The state of playing later than your opponent's is called being in position. Playing earlier than your opponent's is called being out of position. So folding enough, raising enough, position play, these are all things, sort of small ideas that help you make better bets. And the way they do that is they improve the average amount of value that you expect to receive from making a bet. That's called expected value. It's how you know whether a bet is any good. It's the sum of all possible outcomes of a decision times their individual likelihoods. Let's do an example. Suppose we make up a game, not poker, it's a simpler game. It costs a dollar to play, and we flip a fair coin. If the coin comes up heads, you win $5. And if the coin comes up tails, you lose the game. Should you play this game? Well, half the time, you're gonna win nothing. So half of zero is zero. Half the time, you're gonna win five bucks. So on average, that's $2.50. If you add it up, you get $2.50 of expected value each time you play this game. Is $2.50 more than the dollar it costs to play? This is the ruby part of the talk. Yeah, $2.50 is more than a dollar.  So a poker example. Suppose your heads up versus a single opponent. You hold the nine aid of diamonds. Based on your opponent's betting decisions, you believe it's reasonably likely that she opened with a small pair and she hit three of a kind on the flop. That makes you think she has three sixes. She might also have a really strong queen hand, like king, queen, or queen jack, or maybe even queen 10. Right now you have nothing, but what you do have isn't opened in a straight draw.  The opponent has bet $3 into a $7 pot, should you call? Well, if we call we're betting $3, that we can win $13. That's the pot of $7, the opponent's bet of $3 and our bet of $3. So what are the odds that we draw the winning card? Well, there are 52 cards in a deck. We have two known cards in our hand and there are four known cards on the table. We treat the opponent's cards as unknown because we don't really know what they have. So there are 46 unknown cards total. Of those 46, exactly eight will give us victory. That's the four sevens and the four jacks. We call those outs. Therefore our odds of winning are eight over 46 or 17.9%. If you multiply this by our theoretical winnings, you get $2.33 of expected value. Since losing pays out zero dollars, we know this is all we can expect to get on average from making this bet, $2.33. Since it costs us $3 to make the bet, we should fold in this spot. This simple calculation in poker is called pot odds. What are the odds that the pot is giving you to call? There are other ways to extract equity out of a hand. There's implied odds.  In this case, maybe not so much since your straight is sort of obvious and the way you're playing is sort of obvious. There's fold equity, which is the percentage of time that you can get an opponent to fold a better hand if you raise. But if you add up all these values together, you get the expected value. One of the big things in poker is that if you suspect your opponent is drawing to a straight or drawing to a flush, you can manipulate the pot odds and induce them to make a mistake by your bet sizing. So you can create a situation where it is incorrect for them to call and they do so anyway. You'll notice in both of these scenarios, the coin game and the poker hand, there's no conclusion to the story. We don't know in the coin game whether you got heads or tails or whether you would have completed your straight in the poker hand. It's for a very important reason. The outcome is immaterial to the strength of the decision.  It only matters that you repeatedly make good bets. If someone is offering you four to one money at three to one odds, you should take the bet, assuming that it's a sustainable amount of money for you to bet. You don't bet the house, but you take the bet. You're gonna lose that bet 75% of the time, but the 25% that you do win it's more than gonna make up for the losses. Should you be upset about losing that bet? No way. You expected to lose 75% of the time, but you still made a good decision by taking the bet and you should do that every time somebody gives you the opportunity. Conversely, if someone offers you three to one money at four to one odds, you should not take the bet.  One really important way to improve at poker is to run postmortems on your poker sessions. It's really simple to do in poker because it's so numeric. Most online clients record your hand history, including the replay. So if you run into a tough spot and you're not really sure what the right play is, you can mark the hand and you can review it later. And then you can come back after you're done with your session. You can use free tools like Equalab or PokerStove and you can calculate your exact equity based on how your opponent plays and how they represent their hand. And you can figure out what the right play would have been. It makes it really, really easy to see when you made the right call even if it went badly or if you made the wrong call even if it went well. So that's a super high level view of poker and some ideas for poker in about 15 minutes. So what can we learn from this with respect to postmortems? According to PagerDuty's incident response documentation, a postmortem is a blame-free detailed description of exactly what went wrong in order to cause an incident. Usually it involves things like having an investigation into the root cause of an incident, creating follow-up tickets based on the result of the findings, scheduling a meeting with internal stakeholders and developing communications for our customers to let them know what went wrong and what we're gonna do about it. I've read a lot of postmortems working on this talk and it seemed to me that postmortems are really tied up in this question. They take it on faith that if we'd just prepared harder or if we'd investigated more correctly or if we'd done the right things up front that we could have prevented all of this and they take it on faith that anything that we could have done to prevent this in the past is now a critical action item. If we analyzed poker play in this way, we would not be playing poker for very long. It's a little easier to get away with in software because we have venture capital or we have things like stickiness or customer inertia or we're only like a really small part of a big machine or maybe our competitors also haven't caught on to this edge yet and so we're all sort of equally terrible at it. Why do I think this is so bad? There's no room in this model to accept a painful reality not every outage is the result of a bad decision. In fact, sometimes outages will be caused directly by making good choices and some outages will only be preventable by making bad choices. For example, remember the coin flip game? Remember how we did math and we figured out that you make on average 250 every time you play the game and it's right to play. So you go home from this talk and you explain this game to your buddy Ben and he doesn't really buy into the whole math thing and he's bad at money so he offers to be the house and he's willing to let you play this game so you take your shot and then you lose because you're gonna lose half the time and Ben cackles maniacally and he walks away with your dollar and it really hurts and you think to yourself what could I have done differently and how could I have prevented this and suddenly it comes to you there it is playing his day you don't know why you didn't see this before. If these are the rhetorical devices that you use for postmortems the only answer that you can possibly get is that you lost a dollar and you decided to play the game. Everything beyond that decision was out of your control. The only time, this is the only time in all of this when you have an actual decision that can affect the outcome of the game and the lesson that you'll get is that you should never play this game again. This is very wrong. We did math, we did Ruby and we proved that it's right to play. The game has risk but the rewards of the game exceed the risk on average just because you experience the downside of a risk doesn't mean that the risk wasn't worth taking just because a bad thing happened doesn't necessarily mean that a bad choice was made. The term results oriented thinking comes from poker. Well, it sounds awesome on a resume it's not something you wanna be it means that you're measuring the soundness of a decision based on its outcomes instead of based on the information available when the decision was made. It stems from an illusion of control. It's the idea that the choices that we make have a one to one mapping to consequences instead of a probabilistic mapping. It tries to extrapolate lessons from a sample of too few trials. People do this all the time in all kinds of contexts when they say that my grandpa smoked six packs of cigarettes every day of his life and he lived to be 110 or they're disappointed when they've been exercising for weeks and they haven't seen the results that they'd hoped for yet. It's a basic defect in the way that we think. If you're a caveman results oriented risk aversion is probably okay.   But it's reasonable enough given the high stakes involved and the cost of figuring out which snakes are poisonous and which aren't and you got other stuff you can eat, right? However, modern living and modern enterprise require that we take calculated risk. Results oriented thinking will lead to a misallocation of resources.  This is an existential risk in itself. Here's a good example from the classic television series Star Trek, The Next Generation. In the season two episode, Peak Performance, Data is defeated in the game, Stratagema by third level grandmaster, SIRNA Kaurami. And Data takes it really hard. He removes himself from the bridge. He returns to his quarters and he does the robot version of sulking. And then Deanna Troy comes in and she tries to make Data feel better. She says, look, Data, some of our greatest advances come from analyzing failure. And she says, I know it might hurt your ego and Data's like, hang on a second. I'm an Android, I don't have an ego. Aren't you supposed to be good at this? And then Troy's like, look, you can learn from your mistakes and Data, he says, that's the problem. I didn't make any mistakes. Like I analyzed all my play. I didn't see a single mistake in any of this. And then Troy doesn't have anything to say to this.  And Data thinks that the way he sees the world is fundamentally flawed because he doesn't believe he made any mistakes. So he thinks that the way he analyzed the game itself must be wrong. Pulaski comes in and she tries to give Data tough love. But she also comes off as not really getting it. She's just trying to make him see that it's okay to make errors when no errors were committed. And they go to Picard and they say, look Picard, Data's all messed up and you need to go fix him. And so Picard comes down and tells Data, hey, get back on the bridge. We got a battle simulation real soon and you're the plan maker, you need to go make a plan. And then he tells him this.  And that's not a weakness, that's life. Picard is a good captain and a good poker player. But what he really should have said, if he'd seen this talk, is that Data, you're being really results oriented. So here's a real life example. So sometime ago at PagerDuty, we had an elaborate system for testing our providers. We had a bunch of consumer cell phones mounted on the wall behind me and they were constantly receiving text messages via our providers. The system caused a number of false alarms in its three year lifespan. And as far as I know, it never really alerted us to anything that we didn't detect in other ways. It did, however, wake us up a lot for no reason at all. Eventually, the phones started to degrade from such abuse. The batteries swelled up and the cases bent and they looked like they were gonna explode. The team who owned it considered very briefly, maybe we should just replace those batteries and keep trucking. However, they looked at their considerable experience with the system and they're like, come on. This costs way too much to continue maintain. Let's just decommission this and think about, maybe what could we replace it with in the future? So all is well, we took it down. And then a few months later, no surprise and unrelated outage occurred. And during the post mortem, it was determined that if we'd had this system in place and it was working, that we could have mitigated the outage somewhat. And so the conclusion that the post mortem came up with was that it was a mistake to turn the monitoring off and that in fact, we should double down on it. Not only do we need one wall of exploding cell phones, we need two walls of exploding cell phones. So, was the conclusion accurate? In my opinion, no. It's certainly a risk that there were theoretical outage modes that only this system could detect. However, our approximation of the likelihood of these failures times the cost of such a failure was a lot less than the cost of continuing to maintain the system. And the fact that a failure actually occurred later had no impact on the validity of that decision. It's easy to see though, how results oriented thinking could lead us to believe that taking this thing down was playing fast and loose when in reality we'd identified a small reasonable risk with a disproportionate upside and we'd made a good play. We made a good decision to have a risk, right? So, it's not helpful for me to tell you that post mortems are results oriented unless you just wanna troll people by telling them they're being results oriented. So, I thought of some questions that people should be asking more frequently in post mortems. If they wanna maximize their potential for learnings and minimize the odds that they're learning the wrong things. Question one, should we have prevented this? So, most post mortems assume that all problems are worth preventing. I disagree. I think if you assume this, it will make you risk averse. Not all outages are worth attempting to prevent. If you think that the decisions that led to an outage took into account reasonable risks and took into account all the information available at the time, then the decisions that you made were sound and you should feel good about it. If you time travel and then you fabricate ways in which those decisions were wrong based on hindsight, then it will lead to worse decision-making in the future. Question two, should we try to prevent this in the future? So, this is actually a different question. We know different things now. The stakes have changed. The odds are different and the costs have gone down. Critically, every post mortem involves stakeholders. Sometimes, one's with actual stakes and pitchforks and torches. And if your system experiences a failure, your customers are gonna expect that it makes sense that you're gonna adjust your process so that you'll never experience this particular failure mode again, regardless of how much that costs and how unlikely that is. Therefore, this failure mode will have a greater cost the next time it occurs. This is why a lot of places have a policy. We don't have the same incident twice. In our favor, though, we may understand the failure mode better, and we may have an easier solution for it than if we'd gone out looking for dragons early in the process. It may be that the odds of this actual, real-life proven failure mode are higher than we thought initially and a solution is cheaper for this than for many theoretical failure modes up front. It doesn't mean that the answer is yes always, though. Odd occurrences still happen no matter what. So if an asteroid wipes out USS-1, it's probably still unwise to buy into an anti-astroid missile defense system. It's just important to know that the game has changed a bit and our decision needs to reflect that going forward, but not looking back. Did we understand this risk up front or was it an emergent thing? Did we just come out on the bad side of a calculated risk? If you think, okay, I'm going to do this and 99% of the time it's gonna go well, 1% of the time we're gonna cause an outage, and everybody's okay with that and an outage happens, well, you knew that there was a chance of that. However, sometimes it's an unknown risk. You could have known about it if you'd done reasonable due diligence and that means diligence, which is likely to be worth it. There's often little point in exploring every possible avenue of failure, but if there are some areas where you have poor visibility or where there's a really complicated system, you can focus maybe some smaller effort there and you can get outsized benefits for the future. Finally, how should our decision making change in the future? I think one of the big takeaways from this talk is that sometimes it just shouldn't. The lesson sometimes that you need to learn is that you can do everything right and still lose. Maybe you had reasonable knowledge about the system and you worked with people that did and you mitigated against clear failure cases. You evaluated the risk of this particular scenario and you felt like this isn't worth preparing for or the odds of it were so slim that even your team of experts, it didn't even occur to them that it might happen. Even so, we can be thoughtful at this time and we can think maybe there's some areas where we can make better decisions in the future. Maybe there's some critical dependency that's too poorly understood or maybe we're taking far too many risks in the aggregate. So if it's your 100th postmortem for the year, maybe you have some problems with technical debt that you need to address. It's also possible you're taking too few risks. If it's your first postmortem in several years and maybe you can tolerate taking a few more chances and spending more time on your product and less on your reliability. It depends, but it's possible, right? So that's how poker can help you see postmortems in a different way. In addition to being great at teaching you how to deal with postmortems, poker teaches us in a painful, visceral way a number of wonderful life lessons. Poker teaches you to deal with tilt. So tilt is when you go out of your mind with rage or frustration because you made a bad play or because your opponent got lucky, something bad happened and then you start making really poor, really expensive decisions. Part of being successful at poker is learning when your mind is not under your own control, getting out from the table and recentering yourself. You learn to know yourself. You learn to pay attention to your feelings, to what upsets you and to accept and deal with those things instead of letting them drive you and drive your decisions. It also teaches you to deal with failure in a constructive way. In poker, every failure is an opportunity. You get to review your play. You can find those mistakes and the next time you get to take advantage of opponents who make that mistake. No matter how good you are, poker will eventually find your flaws and make you learn for them or you'll quit. Poker teaches us to think long term. Poker is an unusual game because you take your score, AKA your money, with you from table to table in one long eternal session, right? Every hand is a mere stitch and a tapestry that you're weaving for your whole poker career, critical only in the aggregate. It doesn't matter, like single hands don't matter in poker. It's the way that you approach hands in the aggregate that matters. So I kept saying earlier, things like giving enough runway and in the long run. So how can you be sure to have enough runway? How can you prepare yourself to survive till the long run? Well, it basically boils down to minimizing catastrophic risks. Catastrophic risks are risks that take you out of the game. Why is this important? Well, even if you only make positive EV bets, if you bet everything every time, eventually you'll hit negative variance. And since you bet everything, it will cost you everything. So you need to construct the game so that if you experience a big slump, you get to keep moving based on your positive expectations. In poker we do this with what's called bankroll management.  And the greatest poker movie of all time, Rounders, it's about how poker prodigy Matt Damon has the worst bankroll management. He takes his entire $30,000 bankroll to the local underground poker room and he loses it all on a single hand heads up versus the movie's villain, John Malkovich. If you haven't seen this movie yet, you really need to. Anyway, a decent rule of thumb is that you don't be like Matt Damon and you get 20 buy-ins in your bankroll at all times.  That means you have to go quite poorly to go completely broke in poker. Outside of poker we can mitigate risks in other ways. We buy insurance for our property, for incomes and health. It turns out insurance is negative EV. That's how insurance companies make money but we buy it because it reduces our risk of ruin. Insurance is usually a bet we don't wanna win but we do it anyways because it keeps us in the game. Backups, they're an example of something that's probably negative EV, like insurance. Also like insurance, we can adjust our premium versus our deductible so you can have cheap backups that are sort of hard to restore like tape or you can have expensive backups that are easy to restore like active database replicas. It makes sense to identify the areas which if they failed would be catastrophic and find ways to mitigate against them like business ending events even if it's fairly unlikely but keep in mind it's not necessary that you make this kind of disaster painless. It's unlikely after all but if you can take them from literally ruinous to it's gonna be a bad day if that happens that's a really big win. So I hope today that you got something from this talk you can take back with you to your work, to your life, maybe to a poker table. We talked about poker, we had a brief introduction to the game, some high level strategy to get you started on your journey. We talked about postmortems and how they're way too results oriented. So hopefully you got some new tools now to get more out of your postmortems and you can ask more effective questions. You can analyze the decisions that lead to a result rather than the outcome. And we talked about some ways that poker can make you better at living. If you wanna learn more about poker and you're just getting started here's a few recommendations. This guy Alton Hardin runs an online poker school. He has a lot of Udemy courses. I've taken some, they're really good. He has a popular book on poker math. Dave Sklansky wrote two classic books on poker, Hold'em Poker and the Theory of Poker. And Pokerology offers a free poker course which is how I got started back in the day and I think it's a good place to start. I would be remiss if I didn't mention my wonderful employer, PagerDuty. We are currently hiring so go apply. All the slides from this talk as well as all the resources I mentioned are available at this URL, chamberlin.net slash rubyconf18. You can find me on Twitter at Chamberlin or you can read my blog at chamberlin.net where I mostly write about Lisp and programming and stuff. You can also come up to me after and feel free to say hi or ask questions. Thank you all so much for coming to this talk.


Hey there friends, how's it going? My name is Kevin and today we're going to be playing some Microsoft Flight Simulator. I used to love traveling, but um, well that doesn't happen anymore, so we're just going to do it virtually. I can't wait to show you my favorite places in Ireland. We're fly- oh yeah, the glove. Sorry, I- I had a captain's hat for another video that I wanted to wear but I couldn't find it, so I just- or a glove instead. Um, I think it kind of works the same. Only problem is it's so tight that it's kind of restricting blood flow. Alright, I'm going to do one training exercise and then I'm going to jump in. There's a lot of training exercises, so I figure if I do one, I should have at least the basics down and I'll be ready to fly commercial airlines. Oh! Oh, okay. It's Lil Kev flying the plane. He's down by the pecking pedals. This is an update from your captain. I can't see. Why is it giving me some of the controls and controller and some of them on keyboard? I don't understand. Hold X. Like, do I have to swap between them? I don't understand.  It's restricting my movement so much. I still remember my first instructor saying the yoke is like a steering wheel. Ah, the yoke. That's what Irish people call everything. It's like, oh yeah, use the yoke. You see that yoke there? Grab it. Oh my God, what am I doing? Wait, why do I have to use both?  On the ground. Those pedals are gonna- On the ground. Hold on. Let me look at the ground. Oh, I'm looking at the ground. Try them out. You damaged your landing gear. I think I damaged more than that. Okay, I'm ready to fly. All right, I'm going to show you guys some of Ireland. Where's Ireland? Oh, of course, it's hidden by clouds. What a surprise. Where is Cork Airport? Oh, God, I'm pissed. Oh, wait, there it is. Okay, I'm happy again. Okay, so we depart here. We're gonna go up and visit the cliffs of Mohr. Do what? Set his arrival. Yeah, sure. We'll just land at the cliffs of Mohr. Oh, Boeing 747. Yeah, I'll fly that thing. This is gonna be a disaster. This is the cult's private jet. We're all aboard. We're gonna take a look at those lovely cliffs. This is where they filmed the Harry Potter. Some of it. There's some facts for you. I'd make a good captain of a tour bus. Oh, parking brake engaged. Hold on. Let me just engage that. Are we good? I don't know how to go forward. This is a slight issue. Wait, are we going backwards? This is your captain speaking. I'm gonna be doing a backwards speed run today. Oh, wait, no, we're going forwards now again. Okay, never mind. Ignore that. No passengers. It's just a little captain's joke. It's captain's humor.  I'm a nervous flyer and I'm getting a bit nervous even in the game. I feel like I'm not doing this right. Oh, we're going up. Oh, wait, hold on. I got to use my controller. Okay, great. Why does it take caution? No, no, no, it's just a bit windy. It's Ireland. Oh, God. I touched back down just to make sure the wheels were still out. Oh, no, this is actually nerve wrecking. Oh, that doesn't sound good. Retract gear. Yes. Yep, it's taking damage. Yeah, yeah, we need to retract that. Oh, no, oh, no, it's in caution and I don't know why. Oh, we're up kind of high. This is working. Where's my co-pilot? Oh, no, it's all in my hands. I don't know where my destination is. I think I might have taken a wrong turn somewhere. I mean, it kind of looks like the cliff some more might be around here. Don't give me warnings. I know what I'm doing. I've been to pilot school. I've got an A plus. Okay, there we go. I got an external view and I can tell everything's fine. You overstressed the aircraft. Well, if the aircraft was stressed, why didn't he say something before takeoff? I'll use a smaller one then. That's a cool little one. That'll be able to keep up with my rebel ways of flying. Just any way to avoid me saying I'm bad. Oh, good. This little plane has a feckin' map. That's what you need. The other one was overpriced garbage. Expect me to know where I'm going. Idiots. I have to break on again. Okay, here we go. Just pull back immediately. No need to get some speed. Just pull up. Ground speed too low. It's a plane up. Come on. They charge me for every meter of the runway I use.  Ah, yes. The scraping sound means everything is okay. That's not good. Raise landing gear. How do I do that again? Oh, there we go. Good as gold. Wait, oh, I thought that was my destination, but no, that's just the airport. That's where I already am. Idiots. Don't sink. Don't sink. Again, it's a feckin' plane. We're not on a boat.  Every time I try and go up, it beeps at me. Like, there's some kind of warning. It's an absolute joke, to be honest. Like, I'd get it if I was in a car or something and I was trying to go up and the car was beeping because I'm not supposed to, but I'm in a plane. Don't sink. Don't sink. Is that the plane talking to me or is it just, like, a passenger in the back whispering in my ear? Wait, I can see I do have a co-pilot there. Oh, my God, he must be having a panic attack. That's the everything's okay alarm. It beeps when everything is okay. I'm gonna do a roll now. Oh, sweet Jesus. This doesn't look good. Why do I feel like we're never gonna get to the cliffs of Mohr? Thing is, I wanna go down for a closer look. Like, the world looks so good. Look at that. Wait, landing gear is still deployed. Why did I deploy that again? Uh, this is your captain speaking. We're experiencing some mild turbulence. You can ignore it. It's not a fault with the plane and it is most certainly not a flaw with me. It is just turbulence.  This really looks like a scene from Harry Potter. Except, you know, there's a plane for some reason. The buildings are so detailed. Like, they're so 3D. It's insane. Like, this is rural Ireland. Statistically, probably the place they care least about when they're making this game. It's all, like, taken from their satellites and everything. Oh, there's my destination. It's finally showing up. Spanish Point Airfield. Did I accidentally go to the wrong country? Hola amigos, ¿qué tal? No, it must just be where the Spanish tried to invade Ireland. Little known fact, but the Spanish came in from the Atlantic and tried to colonize Ireland. Operation Suppressive de Montague, they called it. Have I missed the Cliffs of Moher? Like, they're pretty big. I don't know how I'd miss them, but I feel like I have. I think it's trying to redirect me to the closest airport rather than where I actually want to go. This is your captain. All right, Cliffs of Moher and Spanish Point. So we need to go more north of Spanish Point and then we'll cross here. Perfect. This is going to be epic. I really want to show the cult, not the cult, the community, the Cliffs of Moher. What? I just got there and I didn't get close enough.  It looked awful. All right, fine. I guess we're not going to the Cliffs of Moher. All right, I'm going to show you Cork instead. Cork is better anyway. Way better, way, way better in the Cliffs of Moher. Screw Cliffs of Moher. Do they even have a pub? I don't think so. Cork is loads of pubs. I want to swap aircraft as well. This one has too many beeping noises and stuff. Too many warnings. I want something more old-fashioned that doesn't care if I'm abusing it. All right, I can change the payload. Pilot, I'm extremely thick. 1,170 pounds. The plane's just going to be in a nose dive all the time. Something's going to have to counterbalance me. Plus, to make it actually work, I had to upgrade the plane and turn off like my co-pilot and everything. So, I'll be staring the fly with... Good evening. Thank you for flying with your co-pilot and your flight crew today. If you need anything, please click the buttons above your head. I'll be sure to run as quick as I can so that I can get back to the controls in time before the crash. All right, enjoy your flight. I started without the parking brake this time. I've learned. I'm learning like really, really well. All right, up, up. Oh, God. This is your captain speaking. Your pilot is too heavy. The plane is not going up. Okay. Okay, we got it. Oh, that was a struggle. Oh, God, we're back down. This is your captain speaking. I'm extremely thick. Sorry about the crash. I hope you're all doing fine. And I'd like to thank you once again for traveling on. Call me Kevin, thick boy airlines.  I left the parking brake engaged. What happens if I get like halfway down the runway and then I just turn on the parking brake again? Oh, God, she's shuddering. She's shuddering. All right, parking brake. Okay, I'm taking off with the parking brake on. Oh, God. Am I genuinely heavier? Okay, great. We're over Cork City now. I'm going to show you some of my favorite landmarks. Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain, Sparks City. We got about two minutes to go. And we're going to forcibly fill those two minutes with clips from the call me Kevin Twitch channel. I hope you enjoy. Hey, is that danger light supposed to be lighting up? How's this thing still on? Okay, out of the limit. Okay, I weigh 11,000 pounds and the co-pilot weighs 17 pounds. It's my newborn child. This is your captain speaking. I'm dummy thick. Oh, guys, guys, I'm not straight. Please. I'm not straight. I'm not straight. You hear me, mom and dad? This is your captain speaking. Today we're going to Lombadon. What is that plane? I think the earth just turned into a plane for some reason. Wait, it's all a plane. Always has been.  Like that, that clapping. Can you hear that?  That's nothing to do with the plane failing. The speed off it as well. And he expects all the passengers to do that. You know, when they say clap when the plane lands, that's what he means. Everyone just died. No, they didn't. Wait, maybe we should check in on our pilot. Clap if you're alive, please. Oh, no. I don't hear a clap. Oh, he's alive. He's good. Ah, as if I'm going around that way now. I can see where the runway is. Why would I have to make it longer for me customers? I, as well, like as captain, I try and keep the messages really brief. I'd simply say, uh, this is your captain speaking. We're going down and then just stop talking.  I'm trying to be stealthy here and come in from the other side.  What? I'm pissed. It must be a bug or something. The best way to look for feckin North Korea. Yes, this is Korea. You know why? Because they've got no feckin lights on. That is why it's just completely dark. Yeah. Oh, Jesus Christ. I'm caught in an updraft feckin hell.  I died immediately.  What?  You're overstressed. I might have to turn off damage if I'm going to be flying this low. I might have to swap plane to it. I don't think this is built to be hovering over a city. All right. Now we're talking. Look at this. Texatron Aviation Cezna. I love that brand. You don't see me leaving the house without my Cezna bag along with my Cezna clothes and Cezna hat. Everywhere I go, people always point me. Oh my God, is that a Cezna? Yes. Yes. I didn't want to point it out, but it is in fact a Cezna. Also, I weigh 1,170 pounds. Please help me. I'm above the weight this plane can carry, but I'm going to try it anyway. Feck it. He won't let me. This plane is fat shaming me. I'm going to have to go on a diet. I'm afraid the max I can be is 574 pounds. Oh, fine. 73 pounds. Jesus. What? Do they have a scale there? And they're like, uh-uh, you're one pound over the limit. It's all muscle. I assure you muscle weighs more than fat. And it's fire muscly. Let me tell you that. The plane isn't moving. Oh, no. This plane is fat shaming me. I hate it. All right.  Let's go.  I'm trying, but it's crying when it's trying to lift up. Oh, no, I'm running out of runway. Oh, no. Oh, no. Here's the end of the runway. Please come on. Please. All right. Force it. Force it. Force it. Oh, no. Please. I'm so embarrassed. Yeah, she's not going anywhere. I'll turn around and I'll go back. This is sad. All right. I'm back and I've dieted. I don't weigh a thousand pounds anymore. Surely that's got to be Guinness World Record or something. Okay. So this is one of my favorite Cork Landmax, the airport. And it might be the only one you see, unfortunately. I'll show you where I usually park my car. Usually here. This is where I park my car down here. Like where the red van is. That's where I park my car. Jesus. Much better than this car park where all the cars are just painted on. All right. So this is the River Lee. And this is the river that goes right through Cork City. Isn't it beautiful? Wait a second. Is this the River Lee? Are they both there? You know what? It doesn't matter. It's a river. Oh, look at that car. It's driving all over those buildings. That is sick.  I misinformed you earlier. Sorry. That's kind of it. I think like I showed you the river. This is Cork City. This is the city I'm from. I showed you the van that drives around on the roofs of the buildings. So, um, all right, I guess we're gonna head back. That was good.  The big question is, is why are there not hundreds of other players flying around Cork City? I assumed it would be everyone's first stop with a turbulence. They're coming in for the landing, but that's fine. We're still on track to do a lovely little landing. Am I coming in from the wrong side? I am coming in from the wrong side. Oh, well, let's just hope a plane doesn't come against me. How do I, how do I lower the throttle? Oh, Jesus Christ. Okay. This is stressful. Okay. Oh, no, this is fine. This is fine. This is great, actually. This is really good. Hold on. It's okay. All right. It's bad. No, it's good. It's good. We're coming in gently. Coming in gently. Running out of runway. We're coming in gently. Here we come. No, down.  To break press Y. Okay. Oh, no, that's grass. That's grass. Okay. Oh, thank God. I can't collide with that. Send in X-ray gone. Was he congratulating me? Why is no one clapping? Why don't people clap anymore when the plane lands? Air traffic control radio to ground and request taxi clearance. I just packed on the runway. Oh, no, the plane's trying to take off. I'm just trying to move a bit forward. What's it doing? Stop it. All right. I can't figure out where the second radio is. I'll bring her in myself. I know what I'm doing at this point.  Stay in the grass.  The amount of times I've flown out of here before. Oh, look, there's someone there directing. Oh, Jesus. Hold on. Okay.  There are all the things I've done and that was fine. Okay. This should be fine. This should be fine. This should be fine. All right. Look, I wouldn't be dead in that one at least. I'd be fine. I could just get out of critical damage to the aircraft, but not critical damage to me. Minor injuries at best superficial. Is my plane on fire? I think my plane is on fire. Yeah. My plane's on fire and it's dead. I literally just wanted to fly to the Grand Canyon to end my video there, but I don't think I'm meant to fly. You know what? Man wasn't meant to fly. It's not my fault. It's just man, man, ruining everything. Right. Well, we are going to leave it there. I hope you enjoyed flying with Kevin air. Sounds kind of nice actually, but it doesn't fly nice. And I guess that's the main point. But yeah, I hope you enjoyed. I appreciate you watching as always. If you want to check out more of my stuff, I post every day. I also stream over on Twitch. If you want to check that out, link in the description. But other than that, I'll just thank you for watching and hope to see you next time. Bye for now.


be the easiest way to do it based on this table. But you can also say that if I use the absolute numbers over here, the spades are from 1 to 13. So you could try to tell Excel that you want to sum this column if the numbers between 1 and 13. I believe when we did it, we did it based on this column here. But in any case, Excel can add that up for you. It'll add it up, and then we can take the percent. So we can say, OK, well, I've got 1, 2, 3, 3 out of 5,000 draws. Well, let me do that again. 1, 2, 3, 3 out of 5,000. And that comes out to 2, 4.66. And this one is 1, 3, 3, 4 out of 5,000. That comes out to 26.68%. The percentages out of all of them, of course, add up to 100, because that's going to give us our check number. And we would expect that it would be about 25%, which is 13 over 52 cards in the deck, 13 of every suit over 52. So you can see this one is off, but they're somewhere in the range that we would expect. So the results seem to verify that this is a fair deck that has actually 52 cards in it. We can also do the same thing and say, well, what if we were to count each card, but there's four cards of each suit? So anyway, in the cases of aces, I can say, well, there's four aces out of 13. I'm sorry, four aces out of 52. So we would expect that we would draw an ace if we did this infinite amount of times, the whole population of the cards, about 7.6. So we can tell Excel, try to count the number of aces. So we've got another sum if formula, meaning I want you to sum the range. So we're going to tell Excel, sum up this range of the results if the result has an ace in it. Now notice when I look for an ace, it's easier to look at this column, because this is the card number that's going to show me the one ace here, another one. So we can tell Excel, sum up this column if the criteria, this column, has a one in it. Otherwise, it gets a little bit more confusing. We could also say, sum up this column if this column has either a one or the next ace is down here, or a 27, or a 40. So it would be easier to use these two columns. Sum up this result if this column has a one in it. So we do that here. We're going to sum it up. Sum criteria, criteria range if it's equal to a one. And if we do that, then these are the results we get. And this first one, for example, is 363 over divided by the total, 5,000. 5,000 gives us 7.26. This one's 7.46. And again, they look somewhat within a range that seems reasonable if we compare that to what we expect to happen. If we did this infinite amount of times, it would be 4 over 52, or 7.69%. And then again, we can look at the differences. And some are under. Some are over. That's kind of what we would expect. So based on this kind of statistical drawing, it looks somewhat like a fair deck. Now we could make histograms of this. What we did here is try to make a histogram of the entire data set. So we just did a histogram, and then I adjusted the histogram to try to give me each number. But the problem with the histogram, if you're trying to do that, is that it needs a range. So this is going from 1 to 2, 2 to 3, 3 to 4, and so on. But you could see that it gives you just how many times we drew, in essence, each number is basically what I'm looking for. And you can see it's kind of somewhat even, because you would expect if you did an infinite amount of times. For example, if there was each number, 1 over 52, is that percent-wise, 1.92% times 5,000. We did this 5,000 times. You would expect them to be hovering around 96. That's kind of what you would expect to be the case. And so there we have it. Now you could also make that with a bar chart. So in this case, I used a bar chart to look at the results. So now I've got 1 through 52, so I did the same thing. But this time, I assigned this to the x-axis and the results to the y-axis. And now this one's notice the bar chart's a little bit nicer, because now I can just have one number represented down here instead of the bucket ranges, even though you can kind of get a similar chart with both of them. And then I added the numbers. It's a little crowded in, but you get the idea. And then this is going to be a histogram of the percent results. So just to get an idea of that, we've got the percent results. Now remember, the percents, you would expect to be around 1 over 52. You would expect them to be hovering around 1.92. And that's kind of what we have here. So it's a little bit over here. But 1.92 is kind of what we would expect. It's kind of like the middle point of a histogram like that. And that's kind of what you see here. So here's the bucket 1.54 to 1.72. There were seven results in that bucket range and so on and so forth. OK, so the next thing we can say, well, what if I wanted to skew the data? How could I represent that in Excel if it wasn't a fair deck? Like there's a card missing or something. Well, we can do the same kind of random generation 1 to 52. And there's multiple ways that you can then take that randomly generated number set and then skew it in whatever way you want if you wanted to practice using a data set that wasn't exactly fair, depending on what you're doing. But for us, let's just say that we took our data. This represents an even 1 over 52, as if you drew one card 5,000 times out of a 52 fair deck. And then we're going to go into it using in Excel the find function and replace. So now we're going to replace everything that was a 29 with a 1. So we're going to remove all the 29s, which I think is like a 3 or something of some diamonds or something. And then we're going to replace it with a 1, which is an ace of spades. So now someone has stacked the deck with the ace of spades and removed the 3 of diamonds or something like that. So let's see what that would look like.


Are you dispelling? Do I get it? Yeah, you just fell in It's not good. Let's go for all this game. Go for all. Yeah, I'll just take this Yeah, this is really bad open first Skip for all cleaning. Yeah I can line up to this This dance for all hard now. Okay. Yeah To get to the tomb. I'm gonna tank more burns. Oh He's kind of low mana as well, though. Yeah, it's not the worst if I get the innovate Yes, he ordered for me. No, he doesn't actually doesn't have food I got it Go please go please go please Yep I'm gonna feed as well. That's doing this. Yeah, this is really good go burning bang bang I guess maybe burn. I'll kick him. I mean, yeah, I got one.  I'm gonna do another Okay, clone here watching It's seen of it. It's gonna hit me. Yeah, confederate. Can you three please when he comes? Yeah? Right now. Oh, I'm trying trying. He's dodging. I can't just Even get that bro. It's so crazy Maybe I can get nine it's risky though. I don't want to risk. I don't want to risk. Yeah, it's very slow, man Miss time is over It's got a shield. Yes. Yeah, we'll be fine though Gosh trying to get it. My gosh. I didn't get it. Do you get it? I'll blind him if you shrink it please might try and fit me here He missed it. He missed it. Yes Half clone. I'm gonna go for priests now. He doesn't have filled. Yeah, good.  Yeah, he's trading, but it's fine. I win I fit his fiend Nice sick I'm gouging it instead. Okay. So yeah, got the proc sick Bash me I'm gonna p.s. Okay. Yeah, it's a good piece in same piece.  I am deep Can gush please man. Can gush please? Yeah. Yeah. Five sec. Five sec. Okay Let's come here Dancing burning. Yeah, sure. He's drinking for it though. It's okay. Yeah, I'm sitting He's gonna stun me all this time. Can you spot me? I should have drink it. Just by now I'll stop him maybe now.  I'm hymning him in me Sure Lucky for all I can fit priest here Yeah, fit nice. I'll burn off it. Yeah, shoot him as well I'll just spell you I gotta miss it. I'm not doing it. I'm not doing it. He's on his melt actually Let's go priest now. Okay. He has no mana. Yeah Kenny Mame Actually clone Yeah, I'm gonna fill with you. I need to be careful the feather. I do have trinket there Kick them Gosh this guy. Fearing double shift. Yeah Burn off and kill. Yeah, so I can get away. So I can get away.  Yeah, no Kept for all. Get him out. Yeah, Kenny. Nice.  We win though. We win though Let's keep chasing. I'm gonna trinket the fear if he does it. Yeah. Yes Let's kill him now It's hard for me to do. Fair, fair, fair. Nice. You might live though. I'm not even killing Got the proc.  I got one heal for you pretty much I'm gonna try and drink now. Yes, do it. Can you gauge? Yeah, I can but he's gonna get away.  This priest is gonna drink. Yeah, I'm drinking as well I'll fear this I bless that priest now. Okay. Yeah, there's an AWE buff Kill for all. Got him, got him. Yeah Good skin. Getting it. I'm in bash. Got it.  Double miss backstab dude. Double miss backstab.  I've got the shield. I've got the shield I'm gonna drink now. Double miss backstab.  We're lucky always Unbelievable. We get to the clone proc, of course I'm just fairly so lucky. Maybe I can get the innovate. Yeah Fair, fair. I'll go priest right now. Ready? Ready, ready. Go, go, go Burning it. Yeah, I'll drink it. Yeah It's gonna double fear. I'll drink it. Nice. Big trouble now. Okay. Yeah, I'm gonna p.s Got the clone, but I'm yeah p.s. You're okay. Yes, I think I'm not a pro. He's just shitting proxies guy, bro. Like it's unbelievable million ones Kid me Does he have a zerk? Do you know the feral? Uh, no, no, no. Okay. Can you get a double fear? It's huge. Okay. Yeah, I'll try Get the race to double fear. Come Yeah I just get a single. I'll get a single.  He's p.s back Keep feral or keep priest, I mean I'll dance feral. Okay. Yeah Skin got the bot I won't get the shield I can fiend. Manor is not too bad They're sniping us with metal jam and speck cloned Priest has filled, but maybe I can get it. He dodged feral. I dodged feral. I'm fearing him Touch gouge He's gonna bash me. I'm dead. Maybe you have anything for me. Just spamming heals.  Yeah, you can clock off this I didn't get it. I got cloned. I got the shield. I got the shield. I got the shield. Nice, nice I'll gouge with this, okay? Go for re. I'll take eye as well. I'll keep feral. Yeah, I'll just take eye in the case Feral, uh, priest. Yeah, feral's getting eye. Feral's getting eye. I'm gonna drink with it. Yeah, drink He will drink as well, though. Yeah I'll rock it, then, mate. Last time before he stomped you I'll go back. Yeah. I'll get the shield. Get the shield. Yeah. Resist twice. Yes. Burning Priest. I'll get one, maybe I line his, line his. No, he'd maim me. Fuck, that was a good maim. My gouge didn't go off, man. Unbelievable He's gonna fear you in a sec, yeah? Yeah, I'm trying to avoid. I'll field you as well. I'm gouging for double fare right now. Yeah, doing it He's gonna start this one, though For the vision here Kill you feral It's gonna double fare. I shift him. Keep feral Yeah, got him. Got the proc as well, actually. Nice. Nice. Next phase is huge for us, by the way, okay? Yeah, 10 sec But priest is gonna fear me. I shift him again. Trying to dodge. I will aim. I will aim. He can't reshoot We need a double fare. It's gonna be huge. Yeah Right now. Clean me. I'll drink it. Income. Yeah, I gush with it.  I'm holding it. Holding it. Yeah Fuck, we're lost now. We're lost. Yeah, it's over Maybe I can shoot it Please Maim, anything? Bash me. I'm throwing p.s. Yeah, dude. He melt it. Okay, maybe get a re. Fuck. God, you're in a sec You can dance that priest now, maybe. I should do it Double-double-double. Nice. Nice. I got the proc as well. I need to get mana now Yeah, just run, man. Run. Get a re, maybe.  I get one.  It's so gross It's on Priest Double-double. Okay, three bro. Nice. I got you before you spell them. Okay. I'm gonna drink.  I don't know if I get any tixer He fears me here. I don't know if I get any tixer You might need to cloak here, I think. Innovate Yeah I'll dance for her, okay Skin. Got the buck. Yeah, get ps here, bait ps maybe Yeah, we'll do it I got the field. I'm gonna get it off and fear. Maybe double, maybe double Yeah, hit him in here. I'll get a re here. I'll just fear Priest. I just fear Priest. Got the proc Nice. Just trying to get a drink, man. We need it so badly. Yeah, I kept feral Yeah, I can stun him soon I'll stop you. He needs one minute Stun him now Maybe I can drink here, but Priest is rushing so he has fear. Watch out. Nice. I'm gonna mine. Fuck, there's no way I can go room Maybe suffer or maybe I got it. Do you get away, mate? Do you get away? Yeah, I'm going room. Going room. Yes.  No, I know you have to. It's fine. It's all good Priest coming to me Yeah, he missed him. He missed him. Nice. I won't dance here, I think I'm not gonna dance late Got one, got one. Keeping feral Yeah, he might burn you at hard door. I'm lining, lining, lining. You won't get this. Getting the proc? Didn't get it Stun him and drink if you can.  I can rock him Yes, I'm distracting Nice and some janks Kill the feral, am I ready? Right now. Go Pig down Yes Gonna go to Priest to fear of Swin now. Try and win here It's for me.  Got you. Yeah, yeah Keep going, my boy. Kill him here Please die, man. Got the shield?      Yeah, if they're on me, if they're on me. Yeah, sure. If they're on you, then I'll try and See what's up first and range the science Just gonna set now I know what he's doing. I can see it It's gonna set for any seconds when he casts on D. Yeah, I'm set now. Nice Okay, we're gonna open them. Okay Yeah, sure I'll wait a bit though This is really good for us You can get here I'm scared he's gonna look for me, though Swelling in there? Yeah. Got the fuel? Yeah, let's go. Let's go Get his next, I'll stop for a clean life He's gonna disarm me though. Okay.  Yeah Pre-disarming is going on. Get ready. Yeah Get ready. Get him before I'm here Yes Silence me, I didn't get. Yeah, spell it instantly. Yep Please got it. Yeah, I'll vanish his dance. Maybe I'll try it. He's disbanding my vanish What is that? I'll be fine. It's a bit. I think I'll be fine. He wasted a lot of energy. I should be fine Stop me now. I'll empty rogue. Yeah And again Yeah Catch please now You have me? Yeah, I should do but I can't keep rogue again. Yeah. Go please go please Kill me for it. Yeah do it Good I'm setting this. It's a bit. Just keeping in combat. Yeah, I'm keeping rogue Yeah, we just kill please now. Silence you. Yes. Yeah, I'll be fine Dancing now. Going rogue. Hating rogue. Yeah I have a blindness He's found my vanish. That was really sketchy To be honest, it feels But I mean an ideal world show but yeah Well, we still have BM on. That's good. That's good I feel like these guys are like full opener gamers Yeah, they are man. They play like 200 games a day apparently You can sap whenever he comes into your P&D. Look for the rogue. Sap me. Sap me. It's fine This is really good for us. Okay. Yeah, I can purge him from here as well. So I'm just hammering it. Yeah I have to go in. I'm just gonna look from here. Yep. Yep. Yep Third sap on me. He's coming now. Yeah Purge him I'll open. Okay. Yep Okay They're going here. They're going here. They're going here. Yeah, I'm going away He misses gauze on me. Watch yourselves. Yes. Yes. Good. Pre-silence first items. Yeah I have to talk to the students. Do a pre-bm as well Very Yes, insane They're on me. Yes, they're dead, but I've got pre-zero. It's painful. Yeah, you're fine. You're fine. Recess completely This is good We open. Okay. Yeah Okay, come back. Come in. It's on him before. Got it. You can fear. Yeah, I only don't have it actually. I don't have it He has it. It's okay. It's okay. I'm sitting this. It's a bit. Just keep going You have to feed on a rogue, which is amazing. It's gonna fear you have. Yeah, maybe I'm gonna drink it No, no, no. It's okay. Holding. Holding.  Kill please I'm just sitting everything Keep the rogue out. Yeah, I can empty him Okay, I'm down still Keep empty if you can. Maybe I can get this one. No, I can't. I can't Keep going priest. Keep going priest. There. Beautiful Win here, okay. Rogue trinket. Yeah, I'm just sitting everything bro. It's fine.  I'm just too scared like I care. I he ranged the md because I uh got dotted by priest and I was like He uh, he got a bit unlucky as rogue.  We take those deep Yeah, we do take those. Yeah, we do this guy's found me way too many times man It's fine. I'm putting no more one back on. Can maybe I can get a sniper, okay? Maybe stay back. Yeah lucky I'm pushing.  What is he doing? Kill the frail. Kill the frail. Pressure frail. It's normal for me, dude I should run into him. He's running you.  I'm actually somehow still ahead of mana. I'm gonna purge him I'm gonna fear him here.  It's weird Priests like I don't know what he's doing with his mana, but he's doing He's poking I'm just kidding. Catch.  Yes, md I'm trying to get the shields man.  Okay. Yeah, I'm gonna fear here. Maybe holding holding it.  Watch out. Yeah Kicking next on trying to get the clone keep going. Yeah, maybe I can fear. No no, throttle is stopping me guys It's not gonna change. But we're actually doing good on my he might innovate here.  I'm gonna go for the burn. Yes, go for it. Go for it It's not okay. I trade one burning another night. If he comes keep burning. Yeah.


Hey guys, what is up? Welcome to my channel. For today's video, I'm going to be reviewing three newish luxury products So these aren't brand brand new, but they are new this season and I have yet to try them So the first one is the clay to po radiant fluid foundation That was what I'm wearing today really excited about that one. The next one is the NARS extreme effects eyeshadow palette I know NARS isn't really super luxury I would say it is more on the higher end of high end But we're gonna count it as luxury for this video because I've been meaning to try this and then the last item I got a lot more requests for this than I thought I would so that ultimately is why this whole video is happening We have the Dior batch sage a glow face palettes one here my thoughts on all three of these products then just keep watching Hey guys, if you're new here, my name is Morgan. I am a product knowledge Enthusiast basically I like to share my thoughts with you on the makeup that is new on the makeup market I've collected a few luxury items that I've been wanting to review but since they're not brand new I was like, let me just Squish them all into one video because you guys have been very curious about my thoughts on these and nobody asked me about the clay to Po radiant fluid foundation because I don't review a clay to poem on my channel It's a bit too pricey a bit out of my range, but I was in Nordstrom yesterday So I picked up a sample So I did not pick up the bottle got a free sample because this foundation costs a $130 but the curiosity killed me my friend Tara Tara Lynn here on YouTube. She loves this foundation I was like Tara you are not about to make me spend a hundred thirty five dollars So I'm really hoping this foundation doesn't work out for me because free is a lot better than 130 Let's find out very quickly I'm gonna prime my face with a tried and true two-faced hangover primer very important to use a primer You're familiar with with a foundation review So I can really see how the makeup sets and wears so some facts about this foundation It comes in a very nice glass heavy puddle a little bit nicer than this there are 24 shades and I got mine in the shade B 20 light medium beige. Hopefully this is actually the correct shade This does have SPF 20 and this is a soft matte liquid foundation that combines a radiant finish with long-term Skincare benefits to smooth and refined skin while minimizing the appearance of visible pores, right? I didn't do too much research into this foundation. I just know Tara liked it So I really wanted to try it so B 20. It looks like a very nice shade on me We will see about that So I'm just going to paint it on my face as I normally would this might be like a touch Peachy on me, but nothing bad now. I'm gonna take my sponge and just push it into the skin Okay, that looks very nice. Let me blend it on to the forehead now I'm gonna get a little bit closer as can really see my skin So I would say a lighter to medium coverage based on this one quick layer And you can see the difference between my natural skin and my not natural skin It is blending out very nice and easily sometimes you'll find some foundations can be a little bit more tricky to move around your skin I'm not having problems with this one. Okay, so here is how one quick layer is looking And that's a very beautiful coverage and it's weird because it is a matte finish But you can see a little bit of that radiance as well.  It is more of a medium coverage so you can still see some skin through But it has a nice soft matte finish to it. It brushes over pores Beautifully it hasn't sunk in yet. So while that sets I'm gonna do my eyebrows concealer powder all of that stuff If you're curious about anything else that I'm wearing it will be down in the description box And then we will move on to the eyeshadow palette, but based on first application the foundation looks really good Okay, so with complexion basically done I just did a bit of concealer and a touch of the Charlotte Tilbury airbrush Flawless in the center of my face and then I did use a powder blush in bronzer to kind of set the outside of the face And here's how we're looking it might look the tattest tattest tattest Tattest bit dry because this is more of a matte finish foundation But I'm not bothered by that because as the day goes on and my natural oils come through I feel like starting off with a base like this is actually better So then it will become more natural and not too oily too quickly And it's not a dryness where it's like showing off dry patches by any means you can just tell it's matte And I have dry skin, but it still looks really great very flawless But let's hop into the eyeshadow palette Like I said this came out in the beginning of the season and I bought it at Ulta a few weeks ago And I'm finally excited to give it a go. So this is the extreme effects eyeshadow palette This is $60 says this has 12 sultry shades in Super matte shimmer and latex like finishes and this is limited edition I've gotten as far as swatching this palette and it feels amazing the color story in here Great color story for fall. It's not too bold at all It's very wearable a little bit more on the deep side kind of boring like nothing we haven't seen before but they felt Amazing so I think this guy is gonna stand out more so in the quality as opposed to the actual color story There's three purples to create a bomb purple look right now. Y'all know I'm thinking about it We might just have to do that. Anyways, we're gonna start off with this cream shade right here I'm just using a blender brush. Oh, that's way too deep Never mind. Oh, that does not look good That definitely pulled deeper than I was anticipating But that is a great brow cream color for deeper complexions though not for light complexions We're actually gonna use that shade. I stand corrected as a crease Transition shade not necessarily crease because this is like a half shade deeper than my actual Skin tone, but this is going to be the base for all of the shadows to blend into and just to create a very Smooth canvas. So there we go. That's what that shade is for. All right, so now we're gonna use the mob Shaked right here. I know I'm doing a purple look. I'm so predictable But you guys I can tell you if this palette is gonna be good or not based on these shades So this color very very pigmented. It did get some fallout It is a little bit more loosely packed. So make sure you tap off your brush But as you can see that blended quite seamlessly and it is packing on some color blending out See these are colors that I know I'm gonna use a lot even though it doesn't excite me when I first look at it They're just colors that I feel so comfortable with for this time of year So you can get a great fall look with this palette like a basic fall look, you know Nothing special and now we're gonna go into this shade right here the deeper plum shade This is a shimmer finish, but don't be intimidated. You can use it like a matte finish. So whatever it's kind of too much On my brush, I'm gonna bring it to the other eye and then we'll come back. We're gonna blend this for some depth Now we're gonna go into it this shade right here. Oof. It feels so gravy Okay And I'm gonna apply this to the outer half of the eyelid and this is just gonna provide a fun little purple sparkle It actually is does not have as pigmented of a base as I thought it was gonna be it more So has a lid topper kind of feel to it. So I'm not the biggest fan of that I just thought I was getting something else. I scratch that now. We'll do a fall look Let's go for this color right here using a wing us number seven and I'm gonna put this all over the lid And this is a gorgeous warm bronze shade. It actually has almost some pink sparkles to it pink and gold Oh, this is really pretty. Yeah, I did not like that purple shade that I just used too much I think it would be pretty for a purple Topper on the lid, but it just wasn't what I thought it was gonna be because I wanted that one to give me some color Now this color is giving me what I want.  I'm just quickly gonna run this along my lash line I'm using a VK of beauty 207 gorgeous and then I'm gonna take some of the metallic plum shade Apply that right on top to finish her off for using this as our highlight shade, and I'm gonna pat this Very pretty. I like this shade. So alright, so this is the look just a simple fall I We're using the extreme effects palette and I do like this palette I think the mattes are super creamy very blendable the shimmers are really pretty I'm gonna have to test out the rest of the shades because I wasn't a big fan of this shade It's more of like a sheer sparkly shade, which yeah, I wanted it to have more color to it I definitely want to play with this some more so far It seems really good, but I don't think it is a necessity because you have these colors But if you really like the nurse formula, it is on par with their stuff It's pretty good because I'm gonna finish liner lashes and all of that and then we will get to I think what most of you Are excited for the Dior backstage palettes With liner and lashes, I'm really digging this smoky fall Look this palette for these smoky fall eyes us and on my lips I'm wearing shantikai tamarind from their new collection again perfect for fall fall vibes today Highlighters gonna kind of make my face a little bit mishmash, but let's get into the glow face highlighter palettes Now I have had a heck of a time with these I feel like I originally ordered these straight from the Dior website and they came not shattered That's a strong word, but they definitely came broken to the point where I emailed them Try and get my money and get them to send a new one I love ordering from the Dior website because their stuff comes so nicely packaged. It's a very luxurious experience But when it comes to having to return items, it's a little bit more work The policy with Sephora is really just very easy. So we're spoiled with that so it makes anything else seem harder But anyways, I'm still waiting for them to send me the return label for that While I was waiting I just decided to order these from Sephora and Everybody seems to have had some type of issues with shipping based on what you guys have told me They've either come broken or when this came even from Sephora, they were like out of the pan I had to kind of squish them back in in both palettes So something about the formula in here Dior has to work on they seem pretty in now But I do I can still press them down They released three palettes and it says online these are limited edition But it also says the original ones are limited edition as well So I don't know I haven't even touched these as far as swatching But I got the two that I thought would go good on my skin tone So I pure gold and then this one I'm super excited for this is rose gold This is really truly the one that I wanted. I have not swatched these. I'm so excited If you're new to my channel a little biased the other two shades that Dior has released of these quads previously are My favorite highlights and we'll start off with the rose gold. So I'm gonna go one two Here is that light shade The second. Oh Okay, now we'll do three and four three and four Just turn my brightness down a little bit So hopefully you can see the colors a little bit better and let's swatch the pure gold while we're at it So I'm gonna do the same order one two three four One two Oops three. Okay. So here the top four is rose gold Then we have the regular pure gold and for the pure gold Definitely this one is not gonna work as an actual highlighter for me So medium skin tones can make this one work, but not on my skin tone. So these are gorgeous I have gotten a lot of questions about the Charlotte tolbury how it compares There's been a lot of luxury Highlighters to come out. So I might do a video on this one the Dior the Pat McGrath and then Natasha Do not know once I get them all in but this is the only one that I currently have I would say the closest match to this one has to be the fourth shade in the Rose gold palette. They're similar, but this one is more like glittery reflective So they aren't even that close. So there are eight shades all together I only have two cheeks So I might not get to try all of the shades that I want to try today But we're gonna start off in the rose gold. I want to see if I can use this baby as a blush topper. So Oh, yes, it's so pretty as a blush topper. It's not too shiny I'm using a refer number four brush. By the way, that makes a gorgeous blush topper so far so good All right, so now let's try the peachy highlighter. I'm using a colitos h1 brush And this is very very metallic Gorgeous, it's not glittery. There are some sparkles in there But they are just so fine that it's not bothering me at all. Let me tip off my cheek this one Like right. Oh, yes, and these are layering so beautifully So we'll take some of this as the inner corner highlight too. So just for Experimental purposes. Ooh, okay. Obviously this is only a first impressions, but I love this one This is a winner and I like pink highlights typically. So no surprise there So this guy I know is not gonna work for me. So that's just that that has to be a lid color But let's play around with this pure gold color. Ooh, that's actually still very pretty that works on my skin tone Sometimes these can run a bit too yellow. That looks really good Okay, cool. And now we'll try this one right here on the center of my cheek Ooh, okay, that one is a very blinding color not emphasizing texture It's still that great formula that is in the other palettes by the way, which are amazing now. We'll take the lightest one Okay, I am flat out impressed with these really excited. I picked these up They seem to be the same formula as the old ones My favorite one is the rose gold because these are the colors that I wear more But if you like gold, I still recommend the pure gold Okay, so before I send you off, let me give you my final thoughts as of now The shanty pie looks really good. I'm excited to see how this wears So I will add a little clip at the end of this video so you can see the eyeshadow palette I think it's nice. I don't think it's knocked my socks off I was really hoping that it would because the quality seemed so great when I swatched it And the quality does seem really beautiful on the eyes, but it's true It's not a palette that you need. It's not unique colors But if you're looking for like a great everyday fall palette, this is very very nice quality It's not going to steer you wrong. Nothing special out on the market right now But still very pretty and then the Dior highlighters My expectations were very high for these because I loved my other ones so much And they did not disappoint my cheeks look gorgeous and glowy The only thing is if you have the opportunity to buy these in person as opposed to online I would recommend that just because these don't seem to be coming in one piece So that's all I have for now. I'm gonna check in at the end of the day and we'll take a look at the foundation So it is about nine o'clock. So I've worn the foundation for about six hours now I wish I could have done it for a little bit longer But I'm not trying to stay up till midnight editing this video because I have to work in the morning So we're gonna just stop it here, but I do think this is a beautiful foundation. Let's come on in So I ate hot soup for dinner So you'll see where my nose is kind of running It did fade a little bit, but it really didn't go into my smile lines very much now Mine aren't very deep, but it's always impressive when a foundation doesn't go in my smile line And overall this foundation wore beautifully and even where it starts to wore down It still looks very beautiful The highlight is still sitting nice and vibrant on my cheek the eyeshadow as well as not creasing It looks just as great as it did hours ago. So overall everything in here I think was a success. The thing that I like the most about the foundation is the finish that it gives the skin Now I didn't give it a full wear test not enough time and also literally I did nothing today So it didn't get an actual nice hardware out So I do need to continue playing with this foundation But it has that overall airbrush finish that I find that my favorite luxury foundations give If you have the dior airflash the lameir foundation Tom Ford all of them I feel like just have this finish to them that only luxury foundations have this one is in that category for sure It is a good one It gets my stamp of approval for my first impressions and you guys know I need to continue playing with it From what I can tell I really like the way it wore down And I really love the finish that it gives my skin and it definitely looks more skin like now that my oils have started To kind of come through so that is all I have for today's video. I'm gonna end it there I hope you guys enjoyed it Let me know your thoughts about these products down below If you aren't subscribed to my channel already, please make sure you take the time to do so I would really appreciate it and I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye guys. Have a good one