Carter vs. Reagan, the last semi-intelligent presidential race, by William L. Anderson, an audio-mesist wire narrated by Michael Stagg. Presidential campaigns in the United States tend to be discouraging affairs, even if one is not a libertarian who has zero expectations that anything good can come from American elections. The old saw that insanity consists of doing the same thing repeatedly and somehow expecting different results applies to presidential campaigns as well as to anything else. For whatever reason Americans, and especially the American media, seem to believe that the process by which voters select presidential candidates will someday produce a Marcus Aurelius or some other philosopher king, as opposed to the final race we have between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, neither of whom will resurrect memories of orators like Daniel Webster or Frederick Douglass. Instead it will be a race in which observers watch to see who commits the most malapropisms. Recent presidential campaigns have not been assuring when it comes to actual content being discussed on the campaign trail. Part of that problem is that no matter how intelligent or sound a policy initiative may seem to be, in the end government agents are not caretakers of an economy or possessors of great powers. Instead they tend to be hacks, and no matter how much adoring media on all sides of the ideological spectrum try to make their favored candidates out to be philosopher kings, in the end the best outcome we can hope to have is that they do not do too much economic and social damage. The last election gave us the forgettable lines of, lock her up, and why am I not 50 points ahead. Before then we had Bill Clinton asking voters to, help me build a bridge to the 21st century and saying, we're going to invest in education and the environment. In other words, we hear slogans devoid of content and we realize that one of the persons uttering something inane will actually occupy the White House. The last presidential campaign in my memory that produced anything close to having substance happened four decades ago when incumbent Jimmy Carter ran against Ronald Reagan. Interestingly the media had written off Reagan, a former governor of California known better for his B-movie acting career in Hollywood as an intellectual lightweight, someone lacking an intellect worthy of the presidency. Perhaps one should ask the question of whether the modern American presidency is worthy of someone with intellect in the first place. While it is not difficult to find the tell-tale gaffes and wrong-headed statements in any presidential campaign, nonetheless the Carter-Reagan race stood out because it was the last presidential campaign in which serious economic concepts were discussed. Even though Carter had enacted a number of grievous economic policies during his time in office, perhaps the worst being the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978, nonetheless he had also dismantled or was in the process of dismantling huge swaths of New Deal business regulation, a deregulation process that still pays huge dividends today. Carter also began the process of removing price and allocation controls on oil and gasoline, although he accompanied oil deregulation with the infamous windfall profits tax on oil companies under the mistaken belief that deregulation would quickly raise prices that would significantly boost profit margins, something that didn't happen as deregulation led to falling fuel prices. Carter's error is notwithstanding, his administration through its massive deregulation efforts in passenger air, railroads, trucking, telecommunications, and banking and finance was in itself a supply-side initiative that more than rivaled Reagan's moves to drop the top income tax rate from 70% to 50% and to better promote the private sector. Unfortunately for Carter and the Democrats, the president was virtually silent about what would be his most important and longest lasting accomplishments. In part, Carter's reluctance to tout his substantive accomplishments seemed to reflect his inability to connect with the Ted Kennedy-led liberal wing of the Democratic Party, as Carter had turned back Kennedy's primary challenge, but with Kennedy humiliating Carter at the Democratic National Convention in the summer of 1980. Although Kennedy had been instrumental in the passenger airline deregulation initiative, his 1980 campaign was geared toward a program of massive price controls, regulation and social democracy. Since much of Carter's deregulation essentially undid many of the business and finance cartels created by the New Deal, and since Kennedy had geared much of his own campaign toward promoting what would be called a second New Deal. Taking his presidential campaign to take victory laps for his legislative success seemed out of question. Furthermore, Carter initiated the wage price guidelines in an attempt to calm the double digit inflation rates that plagued his administration. Although to his credit he resisted demands from Kennedy and the AFL-CIO, which is the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, to impose mandatory wage and price controls, none of these initiatives stopped inflation, and again to his credit Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Federal Reserve Chairman, and Volcker's relatively tight money policies ultimately helped tame the inflation beast, at least in the early 1980s. So Carter entered the fall race with at least some economic successes, although the dividends from deregulation would be long-term and could not be seen right away, while Reagan, at least, was talking a much better game of free markets than any of his predecessors had done at least since the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt. Furthermore, Reagan's embrace of supply-side policies invoked the memory of Jean-Baptiste Sey and his contention that the source of demand was not government-demand-side policies, but rather what people produced. While Sey never wrote, supply creates its own demand, nevertheless the Reagan camp was not wrong when it called for measures to reduce regulatory and tax burdens on producers, as the government's Keynesian policies were creating havoc with inflation. What is more important is that people actually were debating whether Keynesian policies were effective or harmful, something that is in contrast to the Barack Obama campaign in 2008, calling for Keynesianism to be resurrected. No campaign since Reagan-Carter in 1980 has even mentioned, say, or, for that matter, any other economist of note. This is not to say that the Reagan-Carter campaign resembled an old-time Oxford debate. The Carter camp tried to resurrect memories of Lyndon Johnson's portrayal of Barry Goldwater as a bomb-throwing madman, and they floated a number of Reagan's old quotes about social security and the minimum wage, as though Reagan were going to abolish both things without congressional approval, which would be politically impossible. Reagan, on the other hand, accused Carter of being weak on communism in general and on the USSR in particular. Like so many people caught up in the rancid politics of the Cold War, both men, but especially Reagan, saw the Soviet Union as an entity that would last for generations, despite the fact that the once mighty evil empire was only a decade away from collapsing. Carter at least stuck with a foreign policy based on non-interventionism and promotion of human rights, something that Reagan portrayed as weakness, but in retrospect was a major accomplishment, especially given the military ventures of the United States beginning with George H.W. Bush's Gulf War. Unfortunately, at the time Carter's achievement was portrayed as failure. There also was the infamous Iranian hostage crisis. Carter had given in to bad advice against his own instincts and allowed the deposed Shah to receive cancer treatment in New York City in the fall of 1979. While he was there, Iranian militants invaded the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took more than 50 Americans there as hostages. Carter approved an ill-fated rescue attempt the following spring, which resulted in the deaths of eight U.S. servicemen, something that made Carter look even more out of his element. To the credit of both campaigns, the hostage issue was not overtly placed front and center, and Reagan was reasonably restrained in his statements, even though the issue itself really was the proverbial elephant in the living room. If one wished for the hostages to come home safely, then American responses were limited, especially since Iran had experienced an Islamic revolution that was thumbing its nose at the diplomatic niceties of the civilized world. In the end, the hostages came home safely, right after Reagan's inauguration. At the time of the campaign, the usual criticisms were uttered. They aren't talking about the issues, or we are tired of the months slinging. But the 1980 presidential campaign in retrospect at least had its intelligent moments. Although it is unfortunate that Carter's own Democratic Party members did not see the value of economic deregulation, nonetheless Carter's initiatives probably were as significant a boost to the economy as any president has accomplished since 1980. No president is able to live up to the promises made in a campaign, but there is no doubt that at least some of the issues debated in the fall of 1980 were substantive and certainly would seem to have depth, especially when compared to the vapid and utterly shallow contest between Trump and Biden. At the time, many of us expressed our disappointment with Carter and Reagan. Would it be that we had anything close to what we had 40 years ago? For more content like this, visit Mises.org.


So I'm filling out my rental property permit renewal application and I'm at the final step here And I need to find my information. I'm not going to be able to complete this form right now Well, good news is I can save my progress the way to save progress on any form on Amherst MA gov Is by signing in to a civic plus account? We'll get a warning here just saying that any uploads are not saved If you've uploaded a parking plan and you save a form that upload won't get saved But everything else will the bulk of things So I'm going to get presented with a login screen right here And if I have an existing account I can sign in if you don't have an account just create a profile All that you need is an email address Costs nothing. There's no requirement for any credit card or anything like that. So I'm going to fill out my sign-in information and and sign in so First thing we'll see is that my form has been saved So everything that I already filled in is saved and as you can see I've got information in here It puts me back on the first page, but everything I just filled in before is here, which is great Now if you've saved a form and you're coming in to the form center You can look at your saved forms by clicking on my forms Click on I'm just going to show me any Versions of this form that have been saved and as you can see I have three that I've saved this morning So if I want to go back into any of them, I can just go back in and It was there That's it for today. Thank you


Sales returns and allowances. Credits you allow customers for return merchandise and any other allowances you make on sales are deductions from gross sales in figuring net income. So this one's a little bit confusing because there's a timing difference issue and we've got this situation of like net sales versus an expense. So for example, if you made a sale in say 2021 and then in 2022, they've returned the item if it was merchandise, for example, negating the sale that you made in 2021. So then you might say, well, the sale that I had and I pay taxes on in 2021 isn't really legitimate because I had to return the money and they reversed the sale in 2022. So am I gonna go back to 2021, amend the return, reduce the sales amount in 2021? No, that would be tedious. Instead, we wanna take care of it in the current year. So what could we do in the current year? We could reduce the sales in the current year but we don't really like doing that because the sale actually happened last year in 2021. So sales or revenue, usually we like it only to go up. We don't like reducing sales even though there was a reversal in this case. Instead, we create a Contra asset account. We call it is a net which is returns and allowances. So that means when we talk about our sales line we've got sales minus the returns and allowances which isn't an expense but kinda acts like an expense to get to the net sales instead of the growth sales which is different than net income and then we have the expenses. It's similar to having like a bad debt situation. If it was a, if you just think someone's not gonna pay you we would record it as an expense of bad debt instead of reversing sales, right? If it's inventory, oftentimes we put it in net sales which is a Contra sales account. Okay, advanced payments. Special rules dealing with an accrual method of accounting for payments received in advance are discussed in chapter two under accrual method. So note that if you are on an accrual method you're not gonna record revenue until you get paid generally. Right, so I mean, I'm sorry on an accrual method you're gonna record revenue when you do the work and typically you do the work at the same point in time or you do the work before you get paid. If you're a bookkeeper you might do the work before build the client and then get paid. If you're a restaurant you probably do the work at the same point in time that you get paid but you could have situations where they give you money in advance. If they give you money in advance in an accrual method you wouldn't record the revenue until you earn the money. So if they give you an advanced payment as a lawyer to do work in the future then when you do the work under an accrual method that's when you would record the revenue not when you got the money before doing the work but that's like an exception for the IRS because they're gonna say you've got the money you've committed to doing the work, we want our piece of it. So you wanna think about those advanced payments for taxes do you have to include them in income even if using an accrual method at the point in time you've received them. Insurance proceeds, if you receive insurance or another type of reimbursement for a casualty or theft loss you must subtract it from the loss when you figure your deduction. You cannot deduct the reimbursed part of a casualty or theft loss. In other words, if you get insurance proceeds the proceeds should be compensating you for a casualty typically for the insurance. So you can't deduct the reimbursed part of the casualty or theft loss because you don't really have a theft loss in that case you would be netting it out. You can imagine this happening in a couple of different ways, right? You had a loss of property and then the insurance is covering it. So you can imagine you put the loss on the books as a loss like an expense or something like that. And then when you got the insurance proceeds you put them on their income. Income minus expenses nets out. Or more likely you're gonna say the insurance proceeds aren't really income what they're doing is they're putting you back to where you should be given this weird this unusual event. So that would mean that you wouldn't record either the expense or the insurance proceeds because they net out against each other, right? Because you didn't really, you're not gonna write off a loss if you've got reimbursed for the loss for the insurance proceeds which in theory are bringing you back to whole. So for more information on casualty or theft losses you can see publication 547.


Jeffree Star is an internet sensation who's transitioned his career from a pop singer to a makeup magnate. His journey began in the early days of the internet to today where he is an outspoken and influential YouTuber that has recently hit over 10 million subscribers. To put those numbers into proportion, there are more people watching his content than the amount of people in most big cities. New York has what? 8.5 million people? What's going on guys? My name is Paloma Lopez and you are watching the before and after transformation of Jeffree Star. In this video, we're going to discuss how Jeffree was able to overcome the troubled circumstances of his childhood and how it was his makeup kit that sent him down the path of stardom, success, and eventually acceptance of himself. As always, let me know who you would like me to document next in the comments down below and let's get started. Jeffree, born Jeffree Steininger, Jr. was raised by a single mother after his father took his own life when Jeffree was just 6 years old. His mother was a model who frequently was on the road and owned a healthy arsenal of makeup supplies that Jeffree just loved to play with. By high school, he was regularly wearing his mother's makeup to school and experimenting with pale foundations and bold pink and blue eyeshadows on his face. Initially, the school strictly protested Jeffree's use of makeup, saying that it was too distracting to the other students. And Jeffree's mother was having none of it. Not only did she lend him her makeup, but Jeffree's mother also fought the school tooth and nail until he was allowed to wear makeup every day.  Jeffree credits his mom as the one who taught him to be open-minded, loving, allowing him to accept his own sexual preferences early in life without the need to worry about judgment. After graduating from high school, Jeffree moved to LA and began supporting himself by taking up various modeling, makeup, and music gigs. Of course, they were all odd jobs here and there, which made it really tough for him to support himself. Jeffree describes his period as, using a fake ID to attend Hollywood clubs, dressed in mini dresses and 9-inch heels, where celebrities would contract me for makeup work at their homes. During this time, Jeffree was also active on MySpace, using the platform to spread his work and his ideas of self-image and confidence.  By 2006, he was the most followed page on MySpace and regularly topped the charts as one of the most popular figures on the site. In 2009, his first and only album, A Beauty Killer, was released. During this time, Jeffree joined the work tour and embraced a flamboyant, goth punk look, dressed in all black, except for his brightly colored hair. However, his musical career came to an abrupt end in 2013 after he canceled his second album and left his studio, leading him to launch his makeup brand. What he had to say about the ordeal was that signing with Acorn was the biggest mistake he has ever made. While we cannot be exactly sure if it was a fight that went down, most people suspect that it was the label that was just not letting Jeffree be his true self. After this, Jeffree invested all of his savings into his makeup brand in a risky move that eventually paid off massively. The launch of Jeffree Star Cosmetics and Jeffree's YouTube channel led him to where he is today, a beauty guru and online personality. But it wasn't easy. It was either, this was going to work out for me or I was going to have to go back to the mall and work at Mac again, Star said. It was probably the most scared I've been in my entire life. While he is and always has been outspoken about LGBT rights, he doesn't want to be just seen as a figurehead for the cause, saying, They think I'm just a gay artist because I like guys, but I'm a worldwide artist. All of this being said, this influential YouTuber like most has had his unpopular moments as well.  In these videos, I say some really disgusting, vile, nasty and embarrassing things he said. These videos were 12 years ago and I look at them and it just makes me sick to my stomach because I don't know the person who I was. That person was just angry at the world. That person felt like they were not accepted. That person was only seeking attention. But does that make it okay? Absolutely not. Jeffree now lives with his husband and spreads the message of acceptance and self-love to his followers throughout his YouTube channel. He's come a long way from the not understood high school student to the makeup artist just trying to survive through odd jobs in LA. He's really an outstanding example of the power of individualism and letting your dreams take you to wherever you have to go. So thanks so much for watching guys. If you did like this video and are a fan of Jeffree Star, don't forget to give it a thumbs up and subscribe and I'll see you next time.


All right, welcome back to the Sports Mag Zone. Let's talk football. Members of Jamaica's Regga Girls Squad have been assembling in Panama ahead of Wednesday's Conker Cave Gold Cup qualifier in a release earlier on Monday from the Jamaica Football Federation. It stated that members of the technical and management staff are already in Panama with the remaining members scheduled to leave Kingston at 3 p.m. That was earlier today. It went on to state that two players, Tahitian Nelson and Shangei Nelson were also expected to depart Jamaica via that 3 p.m. flight. Now just quickly some news coming out of Panama earlier today that a government contract or that a number of individuals in Panama are disgruntled with the awarding of a government contract to an overseas company, specifically a Canadian company, and it has caused someone's rest in the country. In fact, a number of roads have been blocked and there is even a possibility from what I am understanding that the venue for Wednesday's match between Jamaica and Panama could be changed. We await further information on that matter and as soon as we have it, we'll bring it to you. Disappointingly though for Jamaica's senior women's football program, all the members of the Regga Girls Squad that got to the knockout phase of this year's FIFA World Cup decided to withdraw from the upcoming Gold Cup qualifiers. The team cited the constant mistreatment from the Jamaica Football Federation as the reason for their withdrawal. However, earlier this afternoon, the Jamaica Football Federation released an extensive statement with an aim of what it describes of clarifying the facts. The JFF statement outlined the following one. We, the JFF, spent close to US$4 million on the campaign too and during the FIFA Women's World Cup. The only money that was owed to the Regga Girls up to last week is 20% of the JFF prize money from the 2023 Women's World Cup. The reason provided was that although the contract stated that an amount of 20% is to be paid to the players, including those playing in qualification matches, it did not specify how the amount is to be distributed amongst the players. Now, the JFF says although the total prize money from FIFA was approximately US$1.8 million of that amount, there is a reimbursement that the JFF is in the process of claiming. The players are insisting on 20% of the US$1.8 million. Meanwhile, the JFF has advised that they can only pay out the incentive on the amount of US$1.2 million received so far. Point four, the players asked about who the composition of the coaching staff, which was a condition of responding on being available. This is not a requirement under the current contract. Five, the contract states that the standard travel category is economy, but that the JFF reserves the right to determine the travel category based on circumstances. The release went on to state that it is important to note that the JFF has always facilitated upgrades given the circumstances and requests from clubs and the coach. And finally, the JFF wrote to the girls individually advising their selection would be suspended. A monthful coming from the Jamaica Football Federation earlier today as Mariah pointed out at the top of the show, quite detailed, quite lengthy and from my perspective it is good that the JFF has come out and said something on this matter. Lance and Mariah, what do you make of this? Well I think it was very necessary because for me it's always difficult when you're looking on from the outside and you're only hearing one side of the story. So for me it was important that the JFF came out to the public and gave their side of what was happening because even your record on the show was saying that we can't only think about the girls side in other terms because maybe some of the requests are things that they can't abide by. We always have to remember the JFF. One of the things that they've always spoken out about is being cash-strapped, the financial issues. So to see this release coming on from the JFF, the fact that the girls are insisting they want 20% of the prize money and the total sum of the prize money, not all that they could afford to distribute. So that's one. They're questioning who the coach is and then they will make themselves available based on who the coach is. I find some of the requests that the JFF has included in their press release to me is a bit unreasonable because if I'm playing for a team, I can't decide if I'm available unless I like the coach. I find that to be something that doesn't sit too well with me and I've always supported the girls. Well, to be honest, I think one of the issues here that has caused this contentious discussion on this issue is from the JFF's first standpoint. It is not proper business practice to have a team dictating terms to the JFF. The JFF is in charge of football. So they are in control of decisions regarding football. Obviously, you want to make decisions that are compatible with what the team wants. But the bigger issue for me here is that the relationship between the reggae girls and the JFF has been fractured for a very long time. And there is a lack of trust and confidence from the reggae girls standpoint in the JFF. I saw the lengthy presentation that they put out in a press release today. And from their perspective, I can understand all of what they have said. But the issue goes way beyond that. And the complicating the issue for me now is that we are in the throes of a presidential election for the JFF coming up. So there's a lot of back and now that is happening at the moment behind the scenes, some of it not coming out for obvious reasons. And this current JFF is under a lot of pressure. And they have handled the girls' program very, very badly. And while the girls may be unreasonable in some of the positions that they are taking, they are human beings. And I quite understand their frustration and the frustration of their coach, who is no longer the coach because his contract was not renewed, because the performance of the girls on the international stage has been world-class. The performance of the JFF as administrators has been, I would like to find a way to describe it, but it certainly has been world-class. I said on Friday show that I would give them 1 out of 10 if I was rating their performance as an administrator. So if you have a world-class entity being guided by an entity that is performing poorly, there is going to be disconnect and there is going to be frustration from the standpoint of the reggae girls in this case. And I just see what the JFF put out today as damage control because what is happening right now is very embarrassing. And it shouldn't have gotten here. And I think the reggae girls are frustrated. And I know from the JFF standpoint they feel as if the girls are acting unreasonably. But my problem is that they have reached this position because of the history between the two entities here. And I can't say that I'm in full sympathy with the JFF because I am not. I don't think anybody can be in full sympathy with the Jamaican Football Federation lands because I think the JFF, as we all know, have made a number of mistakes and fall ups. With both men and women. Not just with the women's program, but also with the men's program. And before I even go any further because there's an important point I want to make. I want people to understand that this is not a JFF versus women's issue. This is an issue of the JFF versus its players, whether men or women. So I don't want people to start making this a women's issue or anything like that. Having said that Lance, I completely hear you. You make a lot of fear points. One of the things I want to make clear though, as I think is already clear, that there is a conflict here between the Jamaican Football Federation and the reggae girls. No doubt about that. I said on Friday that the girls, I felt the girls could have and should have looked at the bigger picture with Gold Cup qualifying coming up and I was smashed on X for that. That's fine. Another problem. Here's what I have to say today though. In my opinion, when it comes to conflict resolution, it is important that you explore and exhaust all the possible conflict resolution channels before you get to the most drastic action. In my opinion, I think the girls were a little hasty in moving to making themselves unavailable in this situation and I feel even more so now if I am to believe everything that the Jamaican Football Federation would have presented in that press conference today. So where are you saying if you are to believe as if you have your concerns? No, it's not about having concerns because the reggae girls could welcome out tomorrow and say ABC. That is not the case. So I have to say that. I have to say that. I also want to say though that within the contract that the reggae girls speak of that need to be honored and this is something that you find in almost all contracts between national federations and their players is that you have a grievance clause. What does that grievance clause do? If there is a dispute, it gives you the opportunity to activate that grievance clause and what that means is that you can get third parties in which would also include a mediator and the matter can be taken from there and this is why I feel the girls moved a little bit hastily to get to the point of making themselves unavailable and compromising the country's ability to advance to the Gold Cup for next year which I see as a very important event. If I were advising them, just quickly Mariah, sorry, but if I were advising them, I would say to the reggae girls, first of all, activate that grievance clause, get to the mediation process and if at the end of mediation you are still in a position where you think that you are being unfairly treated, then I would say I am 100% behind you and the decision that you have made in this case. The grievance clause is in the contract as far as I am concerned for these very issues and these types of disputes and the fact to me that they have moved ahead to make themselves unavailable for such an important series of matches without exploring this option is disappointing to me and I think they have missed an opportunity in that sense. And the point I want to touch on is the fact that you said they acted too hastily, right? Because in their response it's as if to them they did everything that they could do in their power. And I'm saying they haven't because here is a clause that is in their contract that is for these specific situations, Lancen Mariah. It's like Sportsmax saying to you Lancen Mariah, if you have a grievance this is how we deal with it. There's no doubt you know guys that there is distrust between the Jamaica Football Federation and the reggae girls and that is exactly why a third party is needed in a situation like this because it has clearly gotten to the stage where the eagles have gotten so big that it's difficult for the the reggae girls and their representation to sit around a table with the Jamaica Football Federation members slash executive and have a conversation that is going to get us to a solution that does not include or or a solution that has the least damaging effect on the country's football, on the country's women's football. But do you realize that it's fractured to the point that they speak to each other via press releases? But that's exactly why the third party is needed Mariah and that's exactly why in my opinion it would have been perfect it would have been perfect to activate this grievance clause because what it means is that now you get in third party representation and you can have that conversation. Instead of everything that has been going on now where you have this situation as you rightly pointed out the girls are writing letters left right hand center, the JFF has to be sending out a press release nobody is coming forward to be cross-examined which by the way is another issue I have but I won't even get too much into that I am saying activate this grievance clause sit down have the conversation sort this thing up sort this thing on. You know when we're going to feel this especially if you are genuine women's football fans which by the way I am I watch all their games and when you're going to feel this is when the gold comes around next year and the reggae girls are not involved in that tournament which by the way as far as I'm concerned is an important tournament for the development of the team and building towards another World Cup because you don't want to get to the round of 16 at this World Cup and the next time it comes around you're not even there you want to make a good run of it and I think the gold cup is an important tournament on that journey and what really worries me is that members of the GFF would be people that you'd expect to have a passion and a love to ensure that the country's football is represented at the highest level and everything is done in the best interest to ensure that football wins and of course Jamaica the country is first the footballers as well when we talk to them there appears to be this inherent passion this love for country football first and all that and to see all of that passion and love pushed aside just by this rift is not a good look at all and it's not good for Jamaica and the football moving forward because these headlines and this history never really goes away you know it just makes you know it dampens the reputation of Jamaica football and for me when I see them play against Panama on Wednesday and let's just say the results don't go in their favor these are the things that will really bother us looking on from the outside. As I said at the top I don't want to disconnect what is happening now from the fact that there is a GFF general election a presidential election coming up and Ricardo you have mentioned quite a few times and I understand to try to repair this damage to look at the bigger picture I get the feeling that the Riga girls are prepared to see everything crash because they are just unprepared to continue working with this administrative bunch for the reasons that they would have outlined in the past about mistreatment and so on which is a word they have used repeatedly and this didn't start last year or the year before or the year before that so the girls to me are tired and there's a lot about the GFF that begs questions about efficiency and proper administration for instance we are hearing now I saw the general secretary on television talking over the weekend about a possibility of the election for the GFF president president being put off until January yes now it's constitutionally due in December and it should be staged in December yes right and we have known for the past four years that it's going to be staged or should be staged in December 2023 so if they are now telling me that because of issues of the pillars not being in place and so on they may extend the deadline into the new year to me that is unacceptable and the GFF continues to operate in a way that shows that it is inefficient and I understand that the girls may have gone the grievance method that you just pointed out that is in their in their contract but the way I see it the girls are fed up and even though logically and ethically that is the proper thing to do yes to try to get it an arbitrator and sort things out the girls at the moment have just given up on this administration well a couple of things Lance and let me say quickly because this isn't my dominant point for me you can't be saying well we signed a contract and within the contract you are to honor it and then in that very contract is a way how we deal with disputes and then you go about dealing with it a different way I don't know that I can agree with that right having said that though given the release from the Jamaica Football Federation today right what do you make of the Jamaica Football Federation saying we have paid over pretty much all the monies that we owe to the girls with the exception of the portion that they were supposed to get as bonuses the GFF portion that they were supposed to get 20% from as bonuses we wrote to the girls and asked them how they wanted this money to be disseminated no response we put together a formula and made a suggestion still no response and so that delay is because we did not get the response and that the girls are upset that they want the 20% from 1.8 million US dollars when the GFF has only gotten 1.2 US dollars well my response to that is a repeat of what I just said that I don't think the girls have acted properly at every stage of this of this issue yes but I repeat that the the girls appear to me to be fed up and their history tells me that they have neither trust nor confidence in the GFF and to me they are just behaving as if whatever happens happens they they don't care anymore because they don't want to work with these people well Lancer must be the most patient man in the whole wild world right but if I sign a contract I am going to exhaust all the possible options in that contract for me to get what I think belongs to me before I get to the stage that the girls have gotten to and I am not saying that the girls can't be fed up because I do understand that when you feel that you have been mistreated over a long period of time it can be difficult in situations like that to see the bigger picture but again part of why you you sign contracts and part of why you have advisors is that there's a greater understanding of how to go about a lot of these things now Lancer Mariah I just cannot accept that with this option available to the girls that you would essentially in my opinion almost hold the country at ransom and put us in a position where we are unlikely to qualify for the gold cup next year when all the possible options were not exhausted in this matter that's where I am on this and you know this is unfortunate Lancer Mariah because a lot of these situations will make it seem as if you are trying to pick a side in this one for sure I know I am not trying to pick a side I have no friends at the Jamaica Football Federation and I have none in the reggae girls camp what I do have though is a love for country and a love for football and a love for women's football and I would want to see the very best for Jamaica on the global stage and I don't think what is happening now is going to end up being the best situation for Jamaica and Jamaica's women's football yeah so we await the next press release because the women now they have to respond to what the GFF sent Mariah you are hilarious by the way you know that right no but that's the truth though that's exactly what we're doing tomorrow we're going to come here you know what I would like I would like to sit down with a member of the Jamaica Football Federation and I would love to sit down with a representative from the reggae girls I have so many questions that I would like to ask and I think if you are confident in your position you should have no issues being cross-examined so he needs a cameraman tomorrow no I have this I have this gorgeous studio no but if they don't want to come to you you're going to have to head across to the GFF okay all right let's take a break we'll be right back


A fiery horse with a speed of light, the cloud of dust, and a hearty high old silver, the lone ranger. With his faithful Indian companion, Tonto, the daring and resourceful masked rider of the planes led the fight for law and order in the early western United States. Nowhere in the pages of history can one find a greater champion of justice. Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear. From out of the past come the thundering hoofbeats of the Great Horse Silver, the lone ranger rides again. Come on, sit there. Let's go, big fellow. Come on, sit there. Every 4th of July, ranchers for miles around gathered at the V3 spread in Harper's Valley. The whole day was spent celebrating in the boisterous carefree manner of the west, with a plentiful supply of food and drink provided by Silas Harper, owner of the V3. Silas, gruff, hearty and smiling, stood watching the merriment surrounded by a group of friends. Well Silas, sure been a big day. Most everybody in town's out here having a time along with the ranchers. That's what I'd like to see when I have my 4th of July party. What's that sharp-eyed lizard doing out here at the V3? Well, I don't like that piece any more than you do, Jim. Even lizard is working to the V3 on the 4th of July. Yes, sir. Yes, old Silas. Say, how are you doing with your prior stock of horses? Fine, fine. I'm a business agent for the army. I've been going through this territory in about 3 weeks. My horses are going to bring a good price. Sure know how to raise them? Yep. Do a better job raising more horses than I do my boy Tom. Where's that kid of yours today? I haven't laid eyes on him. Seems to me, for a boy 18 years old, he ought to be out here yowling with the rest of them. Yes, that's right. Hey, Jim, where is Tom? Have you seen him around? Well, I did see Tom this morning, Mr. Harper. Over at the corral. Now, listen here, Jim. As foreman of this spread, I don't expect you to be a nursemaid of which, am I? If you let him ride off again, will that dad wear that peat and stuff? Tom ain't a kid anymore, Mr. Harper. Doesn't pay any mind to what I say. Then he did go right north, isn't he? Yep. I guess he did. He'd all let that peat and stuff? Tom calls himself an artist. He says they all use that sort of stuff. Yeah, it ain't anything to what I'll call him in a lay eyes on him. Well, I guess your Tom is just a bit different from the rest of his Silas. But maybe you'll get over it. No, maybe about it. You'll get over it fast when I meet up with him. Excuse me, Sheriff. I'm going to speak to the missus about Tom right now. He's on the porch with Sally Harris, Mr. Harper. Yeah, Jack. Really?  And on a day like this... No, sir. Don't remember we got... Calm down, you say.  Silas, you haven't even spoken to Sally yet. Good afternoon, Mr. Harper. Howdy, Sally. How like I was saying, Mary. I wouldn't worry about Tommy, Mr. Harper. Someday he'll be a great artist. He does wonderfully life like painting.  He's making me the laughing stock of the whole caretower. Calm says this morning that he'd like to climb up to Craig Rocking so as to get a good view of Stony Mountain. Being such a nice day and all. Crone up to Craig Rocking. Well, I'm riding up here right now. When I get there, I'll bust all that stuff he carries around once and for all. Silas, there's no duty. I'll teach that weakness a few days. Poor Tom. He was only a bit more like the other ranch's son. Tommy's all right, Mrs. Harper. He's fine. Well, he's the sensitive type. He's a born painter. I know, but Silas would never understand.  Yes, I do. And I think it's a shame his father won't give him a chance. I'm going to ride up to Craig Rock ahead of Mr. Harper and warn Tommy right now. Some distance from the B3 ranch house, Stony Mountain formed a cliff-like wall on the west side of Harper Valley. The only entrances to which were fairly narrow passes at either end, were the rolling hills from the east curved to meet the rigid Stony Mountain Range. All the trails from the B3 spread led to the main trail along the bottom of the valley, along which the lone ranger and his Indian companion, Tonto, were riding. A friend, Silas Harper, has about the choice of spotting this territory, Tonto. Ah, him have whole valley to self. That's right. The guards at each pass he could practically close himself in. What's that to the east? Over there. Oh, that's Craig Rock, give him a study. Yes. I know that. It looks to me as though something's moving on top of it. Craig Rock, plenty high. Point it. No one ever go up there.  Look again. Ah, you're right. You see man up on Craig Rock. He's starting to leave and go down. Ah. It's dangerous. He might slip and fall. We're right over the base of Craig Rock and meet him. Horns, Silas.  He didn't leave horse over there, Kimusubbi. Yes. Look, hello. It's coming down. Looks like Tom Harper, son of our friend Salis and Mary Harper. You met Tom last time we stopped by the V3 Ranch. Oh. Him boy, you'll paint pictures. Yes. He sees us now. It is Tom Harper. Hi. Glad to see you. Hi, Tom. Oh, it's as hard to come down from as it is to climb. Oh, why you go up there, Tom? Well, I wanted to paint a picture of the center part of Stony Mountain. Up there is the only place where a person can see the base of the cliff. Mind if I look at the painting, Tom? No, sir. Here it is under my arm. Thanks. Here, let me help you set these and other canvases down for a moment. All right, thanks. You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome. Well, what do you think of it? Well, Tom, in my opinion, you're a real artist. Look here, Tom. Oh. That looked like real Stony Mountain. That's good, Tom.   I have been, sir. And Dad won't like it if he finds out that I sneaked away from the Fourth of July celebration. And me, here, you are. You're welcome. You're welcome. And Dad won't like it if he finds out that I sneaked away from the Fourth of July celebration. And me, here, your father, say, him not like it when you paint. Now, no. When I went away to school, I took a part. I said I had a natural talent. You have, Tom.  I guess I'm a big disappointment to him, but I... I came a subbie. Someone come right fast. Coming from the direction of the ranch house. Well, look, it's Sally. Sally Harris. Oh, I feel leaves. No, no. Please, wait. Oh, boy. Oh, Tom, I... I'm an asked man. It's all right, Sally. These are friends of mine. Mom and Dad know him, too. Oh, I'm glad to meet you both. I'm Sally Harris, steady boy. I'm glad to meet you, Sally. How? Tom, I came to tell you your father's coming. He's going to destroy your easel in pictures. Oh, Silas Harper wouldn't do that. Oh, yes, he would. You don't know Dad when he's riled up, especially about my painting. Him coming now, maybe. Oh, Tom, what do you do? Maybe I can persuade him not to be too hard. Pull that hook! Pull that hook! Hi, Dad. Hello, Silas. Well, I didn't expect to find you and Tom to here. Good evening. How? Sally, what are you doing here? I left you back in the porch. I came here to tell Tom what you said you were going to do, Mr. Harper. Good. And he already knows. You young whelp. What do you mean sneaking off to the devil with them messy paints? And the other young fellows are celebrating like real men. But Dad... Don't put Dad me. Well, bust all that stuff to smithereens right now. If I ever catch you fooling with painting again, I'll turn you out once and for all. Oh, wait a minute, Silas. Well... Calm down a little. Don't do anything you'll be sorry for. Let Tom keep his things. Maybe someday you'll change your mind. But for now, I'm sure Tom will promise not to use them again. Yeah, well... Well, you heard what the mayor's man said. Well, all right. I promise, Dad. At least, uh, no, you don't lie to me. So you can keep it. But keep it out of shade. And don't ever use it again. I'll give her up that joke and let's get back to the ranch. The following day, the man known as Jed Pierce sat at a corner table in a cafe of the nearby town. He was in low and earnest conversation with a dark, complexed man whom he addressed as Don. Glad you got here, Don. I got your message and Patton came right over here. What's the big deal?  Remember the hombre that hung around bent in the wild? One with his spectacles. Oh, you mean the geologist from St. Louis? Yeah, that's a one. Could you make out like you were a geologist? Fix yourself up to look the park? Hmm, sure could. It was worth my while. You always make out pretty good when we pull deals together, don't you? I guess I'd do with that. Well, then take my word for it. What we have to do first is this. We're gonna build a cabin as quick as we can and move you into it fixed up like a geologist. Just play the part when anybody comes snooping. Look, when I was in St. Louis, I never went in on a deal unless I knew all of the details. I'll tell you all about it later, not here. I get to the hotel and fix yourself up like I said. So after noon, I'll take you out and show you where we'll put up the cabin. We'll bring the stuff in from Benton. Within a month, you'll both have plenty of gold sold away. How about it, eh? All right. We'll drink on it. It's a deal. Two weeks later, the Lone Ranger and Tonto reigned up before the V3 ranch house. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Silas Harper and his wife, Mary, were on the porch enjoying the sunset. Hey, hey, come up and sit away. Hi. You can stay only a few minutes, Silas. Ah, it'll soon be dark. Oh, honey, Claire, you always give me a start when you ride out. It's nice to see you again, both of you. Thank you, Mrs. Harper. We expect to be leaving this territory before long, so we took this opportunity to stop in and say goodbye. Well, she'll be there when she's there. Thanks. You never stay put in one place very long, do you? Not too long, Silas. Oh, uh, how's Tom getting on? Oh, Tom, he just don't know what to do with himself, so he does try hard to help out on the ranch. Well, he's much help as a fish out of water. Can't see why I couldn't have a boy who'd amount to something. I'm sure you'll be proud of Tom someday, Silas. Hope I live to see the day. Silas, you mustn't talk like that about our boy. If you try to see things his way, unless he... Well, here comes Jim. They said we're wrong. Oh, hold on. Well, what's wrong, Jim? Mr. Hopper, I just thought I'd... Oh, you've seen these two here before, so don't get excited. Tell me what's happening. It must be me, Jim. You're all out of breath. Here's some. Mr. Hopper, we've just been checking up, and I come with bad news for you. What's the bad news? Speak up, man. I hate to tell you, but 20 of the finest horses out of the prize heard have been stolen. The curtain falls on the first act of our Lone Ranger story. Before the next exciting scene, please permit us to pause for just a few moments. Now, to continue our story, when Jim, the foreman of the V3 ranch, brought the news that 20 of Silas Hopper's finest prize horses have been stolen, Silas sprang to his feet in a rage. You're playing funny with me. It's a truth, Mr. Hopper. Night before last, one of the boys riding the North Range told me it looked like to him a few was missing. And this morning, he came in and said he was sure more was gone. So I got the boys together and found out 20 was gone. That's quite a loss, Silas. That's plenty of horse to lose. What do you need to do, Mr. Hopper?  He came to some of the boys out near the north of South Passage. The rest of their heads can go with the sheriff to see if he can trail with even coyotes. Right. But as for trailing them, we tried to pick up their trail, but I guess by running a few off at a time like they did, there ain't much of a trail to follow. Fact is, we couldn't cut any sign on them at all. Get the sheriff anyway. Get the hands camped out like a shed. We'll make sure if them wrestlers are still in the valley, can't keep people from using the main trail. But if you make certain none of them drive my horses out with him, get going at him! Yes, sir. It's awful, Silas. Some of your best prize horses. Are all the horses branded, Silas? Yep. Every one of them is carrying the V3 brand. Maybe some of them will show up somewhere. There's no help now. I sure wish you and Tonya was leaving. We're not. You see you're not? That's right. We're staying on until those wrestlers are caught. Oh, I'm so glad. That's mighty fine of you, my friend. Well, we'll leave now. It's getting too dark to try to cut sign. We'll be back at daybreak. Come on, Tonto. Right there at the clock. Adios. Good day to you. See you in the morning. Once again. Let's count. Early the following morning, the lone ranger and Tonto returned to Harper Valley. When they were only a short distance inside the valley beyond the south pass, they saw a horseman racing toward them. There comes Jim, Silas Harper's foreman. Ah, him and heep big hurry. Oh, there was a horse. Good morning, Jim. Good morning, stranger. Things are sure popping, Mr. Harper's mad on a wet hand. What's happened now? Five more prize horses missing. I'm going to get the sheriff again. I don't understand. How could wrestlers get them out? Are the ranch hands guarding both passes? That's right. They are. Nobody went out of the valley with them horses through either pass. Then they must still be in the valley. Or there's another way out. There ain't any other way out, stranger. The horses scowled in the valley with some of the men right now. I better be going to get the sheriff.   Oh, plenty of strange, more horse-gun keema sabi. Yes, it is, Toto. We're right along the base of the cliffs from here to the other end. Come, Silver, come on, boy. Get him up, Scout. You think maybe we find something? I don't know, Toto. The base of the cliffs is not visible from the trail. In fact, that ridge of shale and scrub pine prevent it from being seen from any part of the valley. Easy, Silver. Go for it, boy. Shale's not good to ride over. Probably hard rock at the base of the cliffs. It won't be so bad. If there's any cleft or cave along there, we'll find it before we're through. After riding over the small ridge of shale and scrub pine, the Lone Ranger and Tonto reached a hard rock surface which extended along the sheer walls of Rocky Mountain. Riding slowly, they rode toward the north end, keeping close watch for any opening that might be concealed by scrub pines or bushes.  A cabin. Ah. Then, built close against the wall of the cliff, almost opposite Craig Rock. Need not know cabin mayor Kimosabi. Neither did I. Can't be seen from the trail below. I'll stop and investigate, most of them. Most of them, Toto. Right there, Toto. Come on, Toto. Ah. Ah. Looked like someone lived here. Yeah, it's the strip between the cliff and the trail is an unclean landlash. Yes, what can I do? Why, you're wearing a mask. Ah, don't worry. This is a friendly visit. Oh, would you mind answering a few questions? No. Of course not. Come in. Thanks. A comfortable place you have here, Mr. Professor Robbins. I'm a geologist from Boston. Oh, I see. The Indian rugs you have on the floor and walls are very effective, Professor. Thank you. Thank you. The floor of this cabin is the natural rock, so it needed a covering. I see. Have you been here long, Professor? About a month or six weeks, I should say. Uh-huh. I came here to study the rock formations and had this cabin put up here because it's not visible from the trail and I have complete privacy. Of course. I didn't notice a crow or a horse, Professor. How do you leave the valley to get supplies? I made arrangements to have supplies brought to me frequently. And when I'm ready to move on, I'll have a vehicle brought here to take me out. I see. Well, uh, sorry to have bothered you. We'll be going along. You see, the V-3 ranch has lost some horses and we're aiding in the search. Come along, Tutto. Hold on, hold on, hold on. There he comes now with some of the ranch things. Thanks, I see. And Mrs. Harper said he'd be full up. Is Tom here? Yes. I've got more now to worry about those horses. Well, hi there. Morning, Silas. Call me, Mom. Yes, Tom. I want to see you, Tom. Now, you still have the pinning you made on Crag Rock the 4th of July? Yeah. Good to hear you heard your share of it, Pete. I'll wait, Silas. Wait a minute. This is important. How about it, Tom? Yes, I can. I'll get it for you. Yeah, you can't for the life of me. Figure why you want it. You soon know any sound of the rust, right, Silas? Not a bit. It's a little muddy, funny about the whole thing. They couldn't just fly them horses away from the valley. I know. Did you see that cabin built at the base of Stoney Morrow? Yeah, the first time I knew it was there. In there sometime, I reckon. That strip is unclaimed land. So it's all right for it to be there. Here's the pinning. Well, thanks, Tom. Look here, Silas. I don't want to look at any of Tom's fully stabbing. Look at it, Silas. Well, all right. Good to have you. OK. That's the clear flight opposite Craig Rock. Looks just like it do. Yes. Tom's tail work is perfect. This was painted a little over two weeks ago. But there's something missing in it. Oh, no. That's just as I saw it. But the cabin is not there. Hey, Jupiter, that's right. The cabin we saw this morning is right about there. Where Tom has them scrub pines painted in. Nothing could grow where the cabin now stands. It's all a rock there. Oh, those pines I painted in weren't close to the base of the cliff. They were slightly in the foreground. You see, there's light shining through from behind them. Yes. On either side, you also have scrub pines painted in. But they're much darker. Yet they're situated about the same as those in the center, Tom. Why is that? I don't know. But I do know I painted the scene as I saw it. Now, the sun was reflected more behind the center, Tom, I guess. Look, we're wasting time. Silas, I think Tom's painting gave me the answer to the puzzle. Come on, we'll meet the sheriff and go after those rocks. But hey, we have no time to lose. After meeting the sheriff on the main trail, the lone rain-grain tunnel followed by Silas' ranch hands led the way to the cabin near the base of the cliff. Soon they rained up in front of the cabin. Oh, so good. Oh, no. They'll be right there, big fella. Bring your man, Sheriff. Well, well, still hunting for the rushless gentleman? The hunt is about ended, Professor. Come on, Sheriff. Wait. You can't force your way into my cabin like this. On the side. No, wait. What do we do now? I may be wrong, but I think I'll find the proof of my theory behind those Indian rugs on the back wall. Stay away from those wall coverings. A good pull should bring them down. Look, a big door. Now I'll show you no mass down we can do this. Oh, my hand. Shall he stand with his head? May I not like it to see that bro? I know this professor lost his boss Tony on accent. I should prove something. That's right. I bet he ain't a professional at all. Open that door, man. As your rustlers, is he changing the brands on your horse's silo? She lets you go from riding to a beach in the other side of Rocky Mountains. The rustlers haven't noticed this yet. Have your guns ready. Come on. Rustle, man. Rustle, man. Come on. Within a short time, Pierce and his small band of rustlers were overpowered and taken away by the sheriff in his posse. A young ranger and a toddler returned to the V3 ranch house with a silo. Oh, sir. Come on, sir. Right there. He came by and told me about the rust. We should, didn't we? All right, Dad. I guess you think I should have gone to help. Well, I... I guess I'll never be very good with a gun. You did your part in the capture town? Yeah. You said that on the way here. Just what did that peat and tell you that made you so sure where the rustlers went? The town was detailed work and the penny was almost perfect, Silas. The professor, or that is the fake professor, said he was there six weeks. Ah, him say that. Tom painted his picture about two weeks ago on the 4th of July. According to the painting, the cabin was not there then. Yeah, that's right. The beams of light Tom had shining behind that one clump of scrub pines indicated that there might be an opening in the cliff just behind the clump. From that, I got the idea the cabin hid that opening. Well, I do declare. Then those seagulls moved the rugs from the stone floor, led the horses through the cabin and through the opening of the back, then put the rugs back in place on the floor in the wall. That's right. The rustlers were changing your brand. To a W-8 brand by adding another V and inverting the three. You see, they figured to sell them to the Army, Mary. I sure was in to lose a lot of money. We can thank Tom that you didn't. It was his fine painting that helped us find the rustlers. Yeah, that's all it was. Yeah, Tom-chan. Yes, every man has different likings.  Oh, gee, thanks, Dad. We'll be going now. Thanks a lot. Are you tallo? Uh-huh. Are you ready? Adios. Come on, silver. Goodbye! Goodbye! Goodbye! Goodbye! I declare, Silas, he's your good friend to have. But all this time we've known him, I still don't know who he is. Really? Yes, I forgot to tell you, Mary. He's the Lone Ranger. You have just heard is a copyrighted feature of the Lone Ranger Incorporated.


The door is open for question as you already won there and the next one will be there. Thanks yeah very nice I have two questions one is I mean ROA is a tricky measure of riskiness I mean your question is in fact in particular I would think there is some delay you know I mean you would you would detect riskiness from ROA only after a lag and the question is you didn't report that lag maybe you did it or what would it how would it how would that change if you put in the lag that would interpret this second question is I mean you seem to indicate that more risk-taking is problematic or bad at least sort of some some of some of the remarks you made could be interpreted that way my impression would be that possibly risk-taking was far too low before in the Eurozone at least and so this was a beneficial effect bringing this up to to higher risk-taking levels on the side of the commercial banks so is there anything in terms of welfare one could say thank you so the next question all right so in you show that institution that rely a lot on deposit took more risk alternatively they could have changed their funding structure so in reality is the funding structure so sticky so it doesn't change much so question there yeah I think in general the positive rates are relatively low and they vary less than in another market rates there is evidence on that so you would expect at other times someone else to be reshifting if this sort of child to value were so strong seems a bit and be the hard to quite interpret that way but there is also an alternative interpretation which is a high quality borrowers to care about the health of their lender and there is evidence that they switch so might very much be a credit the main site that the one they can afford to switch to better banks and then you have you're left with the other loans thank you any other questions I was proposed you start by answering this and then we see there are more questions and I would also encourage in case there is anything between the two of you to be clarified or asked to take it up so first of all water thanks a lot for the very interesting discussion let me first get back to the two main points in your discussion so first of all on the behavior of loan officers in the six month period let me just clarify two things so for the main analysis in the paper we are effectively looking at the one year and a half period so June 2014 to the end of 2015 a period over which rates are or negative during the whole period but even having said that I fully agree that it's very interesting to further think about these these mechanisms and turn internally in the wooden banks how this how this exactly is is happening because it's that's very important in order to make sure that this the setup we have is a realistic one in the in the end and then on the on the relativness of the effect so on the the loan growth so if you would look at the aggregate levels indeed lending in the eurozone since 2014 mid 2014 has effectively picked up but what we are actually really what we're really looking at in this paper and like I tried to stress during the presentation is that it's always very important to keep in the back of your mind when when reading these results is that we're looking at relative effects of high versus low deposit banks which makes it hard to make this type of absolute statements a good feeling but the aggregate well an aggregate lending is going is going up over over this period but less so for the high deposit banks that's at least what we what we observe in the in the data there then for the question on return on assets so we so the risk measure in our main analysis is the so the standard deviation of the return on assets and it's taken over a five year period before the loan is being granted so it's really it's really already a an ex ante measure of riskiness so and a measure that the bank should also be able to observe when effectively granting the loan and that's why we take this as our as our main main proxy of riskiness and throughout the paper we also have a whole number of alternative alternative risk measures for for further a business on whether or not the risk-taking is bad well I think all our results in some way show that there's does indeed also a bright side that there's new lending going to borrowers that we're not able to get a loan before in this indicated loan markets that we are that we're studying so this might indeed indicate that there might might have been so that that there's a reduction in in credit constraints for these for these firms then there was a question on the whether the funding structure is stable over time so that seems to be very stable for the for the banks and our sample over time this very little so when banks have a really high deposit ratio they tend to have this that for a prolonged period over time so this really seemed to be some kind of business model choice of of the bank and then the last question of Enrico on the on the matching between borrowers and banks that's indeed a very very good comment I would have to think about ways how we could how we could deal with this in the in the paper but indeed it might be that there's some concern from the borrower side about the quality of the bank as well although I would think that that's something that's already place in the period before that that's not necessarily strongly related to a negative rates but really something that's already happening over the prolonged period that that rates were were low but thanks a lot for the comment thank you one more question here in the front first line first row sorry not like you may have given the answer but I didn't hear it if she did which is what happened to the profit rates of the banks as a function of a deposit ratio deposit funding ratio do we know so there so initially you see a limited effect there but if you as time goes by and by the end of our sample you also see a gap opening up there for the so the high the higher deposit banks seeing a slight slight reduction there compared to the do the low deposit banks thank you very much to the audience for the nice question in particular to the presenter and discussion it was a real discussion challenging and I've learned a lot at least for myself we are closing right on time for lunch thank you and you are back in an hour I understand


Welcome back to learning analytics tools course. This week we will continue on predictive analytics. So, we will discuss Naive-based classifier and a decision tree classification algorithm in this week. So, Naive-based classifier is a probabilistic classifier, the output will be probability of getting pass is some probability of a point 7 or 0.8 or 0.2 or 0.3 and it is very widely used in test categorization. So, it is one of the supervised algorithm because we have to give the label also not only the X we also have to give the Y. So, we know what to be done like a classification whether you have to predict pass or fail or you have to predict whether the student will continue in the course or not something like that. So, it is based on Bayes theorem that is why it is called Naive-based. So, what is Naive? There is a Naive assumption here that is very important in the Bayes theorem. Bayes theorem is very simple, you might have used it in the probability classes, but this Naive-based classifier assumes a Naive assumption that is the features occurring in this are independent that is the main assumption. Suppose if you try to model the students performance based on their attendance, assignment, submission or some engagement in the class, there is something you have to assume that these occurrences are independent although it is not possible, the student has to be attending the class to improve the engagement, but the Naive-based makes this assumption that is a Naive assumption. So, you can think of other features like in MOOC, a student logging in, student interacting with the forum, student watching video, these are independent because not every student is going to interact with forum or something like that. So, this assumption is the Naive assumptions in the Naive-based theorem. So, let us start with the activity before we jump into what is Naive-based theorem.  So, there are two independent events, sorry there are two dependent events A and B. If two events are dependent given this kind of diagram, what is the probability of A given B? That is what the probability of A occurring given B already occurred. Can you write down the formula for conditional probability, you know this Venn diagram, intersection, joint all those things. Can you use that just to write the conditional probability of these two events, two dependent events. So, Bayes theorem starts with this conditional theory that is probability of A given B is probability of A and B occurring together given probability of B occurred like a probability of complete B and the joint probability of A and B that is the Bayes theorem. For example, if I want to know probability of student will fail the exam if attention is low. So, that means probability of failure and attention low as to occur the student who are have a low attention also failed in exam, there are a lot of other might have failed plus given that the probability of B attention occur, there is a probability of attention. So, let us see this in a detailed conditional probability. Let us look at the example, this is a standard probability sum there is a box which contains four apples and three oranges. Out of these two apples are defective and one orange is defective. What is the probability if you pick a defective fruit that fruit will be an apple. To identify it you can apply a conditional probability also is very simple, you know it is very simple to answer directly. Let us see what is the probability of apple and it is being defective and proud of defective fruits. So, let us see since it is complete divided by all this fruits involved I am just going to complete ignore everything I am just going to simply apply apple and defective is two and the total defective fruit is three. There are three fruits available defective if you pick two one it will be one among three and how many of them can be apple is two out of three. So, it is very simple probability two by three because you do not even think of much there are three fruits three are defective you know that is out of three how many will be apple like a two out of three that is 66 percentage of chances that fruit will be apple or 0.66 probability. Let us look at the base theorem from the conditional probability. Probability of a given b is probability of a and b that is equation one that you can write it that you saw that in the previous slide simple and probability of b by a that is probability of a and b same right because b by a but probability of a. If I want to replace this term with the other term suppose consider this probability of b by a this term can give probability of b by a into probability of a this is equal to this right I mean like this particular term can be kept and these two can be removed. This can be this like probability of a and b sorry probability of a and b right this is exactly. So, you can replace this particular statement by this value. So, that is probability of a by b equal to this p this p of a and b can be replaced by this particular term probability of b by a into probability of a divided by this p out of b that is very simple right. So, just how to equation you just have to apply that that is called the base theorem that is it this is the simple base this is a base theorem and you have a naive assumption on it that we can use as a naive base classifier that is exactly this equation is going to explain yes probability of a by b or in a base theorem it is exactly the same value. So, base theorem is very simple it is just a two conditional probability it is like a probability of what is the probability of that a will occur given b already I could argue some value some value of b is probability of b by a into probability of a divided by probability of complete b like not just a particular probability of event occurring all the possibility of event occurring if it has 3, 4 values all the values to be occurring together. That is a base theorem a simple base theorem can be derived from the conditional probability you might have already known that but for people you do not know just this is brushing up what is base theorem. So, now even this particular question also can be solved without using base theorem but I want to apply a base theorem this consider a couple has two children they are twins one of which is boy what is the probability that they have two boys they have two children boys or girls anything possible.  So, please write down the answer after writing it down I assume to continue. So, how do you do that if I want to do a solid by a base theorem first I need to understand what is the question. So, question is probability of both children of boys we want to predict this right what is the probability they have two boys and given one of them is boy right one of the child is boy. So, we have to predict probability of A given B what is the probability of both children or boys given there is a one children might be one children is boy. So, that is probability of A given B you can simply apply in the base theorem and the B word of A by probability of A into B by A into. So, how this numbers came this numbers are very simple right. So, probability of both children or boys there is only two possible right.  So, the outcome the even space is only this four events possible you know and I said that there are the first one and second child and twins all these things I gave. So, given there are four possible outcomes in that being both are boys is one that is why it is one by four this is actually this being both are boys it is one by four.  So, that is the answer here. So, one two three three three chance that one at least one of them will be boy. So, now we have to compute this. So, probability of A is you know probability A is one by four true and the tricky part you know the tricky part is this one probability of B given A what is B? B is probability of one of them being boy given probability of both are children or boys. This is tricky part you might have missed if you do answer correctly that is correct if you do miss this is an exact tricky point you have missed. The point is probability of B by A means one child is equal to boy given both are boys you know both are boys means definitely one child will be boy right. So, the probability is one simple as I said that is a one actually if you substitute that the answer will be this as I mentioned this you do not need to use the Bayes theorem to solve this problem but I took the simple problems to explain the theorems here because that you can understand step by step. So, you can solve without applying the Bayes theorem that is fine but this is how you can apply Bayes theorem on this kind of problems. Please go ahead and solve more problems related to this probability Bayes problems in the internet and understand how it works that helps a lot to understand Bayes theorem. Bayes theorem is just this Bayes theorem only. So, we saw what is Bayes theorem not the Bayes classifier in this slide but it is a Bayes theorem how it is constructed from the conditional probability and I request you to go to solve much more probability problems using Bayes theorem. Thank you.


Every day, construction workers face workplace hazards that pose a significant risk to their health and safety. Some of these risks can result in serious consequences. Of all worker fatalities at work or as a result of work-related illness, roughly one-third are in the construction industry. In zero-tolerance targets, falls of more than three meters, ladder falls, contact with moving machinery, electric shock from a live overhead power line, collapse of scaffolding, collapse of an unshored trench, exposure to asbestos dust, exposure to silica dust, and unstable rocks. As an employer, you have certain responsibilities with respect to these targets. For starters, you must inform your workers of the risks associated with each task. You must train all workers to ensure they work safely and in accordance with preventive measures. You must provide them with safe equipment, tools, and work procedures. You must also supervise their work and ensure compliance with all safety standards. Your prevention program is the best way to meet your responsibilities. If you are in breach of the rules, you could face a full or partial work stoppage, closure of the job site, and statements of offence. More than half of all work stoppages, site closures, and statements of offence are issued in the construction industry. As a construction professional, you should already know how to identify, correct, and control the risks related to the zero-tolerance targets. Don't hesitate to reach out to the APC HQ for support and advice about your prevention process.


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The best government programs for teaching English abroad. Teaching English abroad is now a popular career option for many people of all ages. While there is a strong demand for TEFL-certified teachers in many different regions of the world, there are certain countries who have implemented government-funded programs to attract foreign English teachers. Through these programs, qualified English teachers are placed into schools around their countries where they are employed for a set period of time. Here is a list of the best government programs for teaching English abroad. EPIC for Teaching English in South Korea. The EPIC program in South Korea is one of the largest and most popular teaching programs and stands for English program in Korea. This scheme is run by the South Korean government and places foreign teachers into schools across the country to work as English language instructors. The program offers competitive salaries, attractive extra benefits and the chance to live and work in a unique cultural environment in East Asia. Requirements and more information about the program. Teachers sign a one-year contract that runs from one of two start dates, either the end of February or the end of August. Salary based on qualifications and experience ranging from 1.8 to 2.7 million South Korean won, currently $1,500 to $2,300 US dollars per month. Fully furnished accommodation, not including utilities. Paid airfare in and out of the country. 300,000 South Korean won settlement allowance. 18 days paid leave plus all national holidays. One month salary bonus on completion of contract. You must be a native English speaker with a passport from one of the following countries, Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, the UK or the US. You must hold a university degree and be able to prove a clean criminal record. How to apply. To apply for this scheme, please visit the official EPIC website. Talk for teaching English in South Korea. Talk stands for Teach and Learn in Korea, which is a government sponsored program that places foreign nationals into elementary schools across South Korea. Talk is a similar program to the much larger EPIC, however, the talk program differs by focusing on placements and underprivileged areas that might otherwise struggle to attract foreign teachers. Requirements and more information about the program. Open to college graduates or current undergraduate students who have completed at least two years of a degree course. Applicants must also hold a passport from the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, or Ireland. Minimum age requirement is 19, but no official upper age limit, although those over 35 are typically encouraged to join the EPIC program instead. A national criminal record check must be submitted during the application process. Participants sign a one-year contract that starts in either February or August. Prior to the start date there is a one-month orientation program. A monthly stipend of 1.5 million South Korean won, currently $1,300 US dollars per month. Furnished accommodation, typically a studio apartment, not including utilities. Flight allowance of 2.6 million South Korean won to cover transport in and out of the country. Settlement allowance of 300,000 South Korean won. Seven vacation days per semester. Medical insurance coverage. How to apply, to apply, please visit the official talk program website. Jet for Teaching English in Japan. The Japan Exchange and Teaching Program, JET, is a government-backed scheme that has been operating for more than 30 years. Through the scheme, around 5,000 foreign nationals are placed into schools right across Japan with the intention of raising the language skills of young people. Unlike many similar programs in other countries, the JET program also has a strong focus on cultural exchange between participants and the local population. There are three types of position available through the program. The most common, at over 90% of applicants, is working as an assistant language teacher. Duties of an assistant language teacher include assisting a Japanese teacher in the classroom, preparing teaching materials, and participating in extracurricular activities such as sports or language clubs. If you have a good standard of Japanese language skills then you can also apply as a coordinator of international relations, while sports professionals can apply for the role of sports exchange advisor. Requirements and more information about the program. Open to college graduates up to the age of 40. A minimum of a bachelor's degree or alternatively a three-year teaching qualification at either primary or secondary level. Strong emphasis on youthful energy and a desire to fully embrace the Japanese culture, language, and overall way of life. Pre-tax salary of 280,000 Japanese yen. Currently 25,000 US dollars, in your first year, plus airfares for travel to Japan and homeward flight on completion of the contract. Paid holiday time between 10 and 20 days, plus all national holidays. Working hours are approximately 35 per week from 8.30 a.m. to 5.00 p.m., Monday to Friday. How to apply? Visit the official JET program website to apply for the JET program. Tapef for teaching English in France. The Tapef program, short for teaching assistant program in France, is a government initiative that places applicants into French state schools to work as teaching assistants. The program provides a great opportunity to live and work in a country where long-stay visas can be difficult to secure for non-Europe citizens. For those who meet the necessary criteria, the Tapef program could be the perfect way to fulfill your dream of living and working in France. Requirements and more information about the program. Open to those aged between 20 and 35. Participants work 12 hours per week in up to three different elementary or secondary schools for a period of seven months, running from October 1st to April 30th. Each position comes with a work visa that is valid for the length of the contract, plus health insurance and a monthly stipend of 790 Euro. Each applicant's suitability is evaluated via the following criteria. French language skills, a level equivalent to be one on the common European framework of reference for languages is required. Level of university education. Previous teaching experience. Experience working with children. Experience living abroad. Teflor TESOL qualification, not compulsory but highly beneficial. How to apply. As the requirements are subject to change, you should visit the Tapef program website for the most up-to-date information. As well as being evaluated on the criteria stated above, applicants are also required to submit the following. 500 word statement of purpose in French. Scan of valid passport. Scan of university transcripts. Language evaluation from university French professor. Letter of recommendation from academic or professional. 60 US dollars application fee. Cultural ambassadors program for teaching English in Spain. The cultural ambassadors program, also known as the North American Language and Culture Assistance Program, is run by the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sport. The program places 2500 North Americans into elementary or secondary schools across Spain to work as assistant language teachers. Due to the difficulties for non-Europeans to secure a work visa in Spain, this program is very popular among Americans and Canadians looking to live and work legally as an EFL teacher in Spain. As this is a very competitive program there is no guarantee of acceptance. Requirements and more information about the program. Open to American and Canadian citizens aged between 21 and 60, the upper age limit for placement in the Madrid region is 35. Contracts last from early October until May 31, June 30 in the Madrid region, teachers work a set number of classes per week in return for a stipend of 700 euro per month, plus health insurance coverage, and a long stay work visa. Airfares and accommodation costs are not included. An applicant's suitability is also evaluated on the following criteria. A practical demonstration of Spanish language skills, college transcripts, high school records, and Spanish language certificates can be submitted to provide extra proof. Physical and psychological suitability, a medical form is required. Academic achievement, B.A. or B.S. minimum, university junior, senior, or graduate. Previous teaching experience. Experience working with children. Experience living abroad. Teflor TESOL qualification, not compulsory but highly beneficial. How to apply. For the most up-to-date information regarding the application process you should visit the official website of the cultural ambassadors program. To complete the application you will need to supply the following documents. 250 to 300 word statement of purpose in English. Copy of a reference letter from your employer or university. Copy of your degree or diploma, or an official academic record. Copy of valid U.S. or Canadian passport. Set for teaching English in Hungary. If you are looking for something a little different that is slightly off the beaten path, then the Central European Teaching Program in Hungary may be worth a look. The Central European Teaching Program is a long running program that places applicants into schools in Hungary to work as English language teachers. Requirements and more information about the program. Open to native English speakers from the U.S., Canada, the U.K., or any other Europe country. No official upper age limit, this is a particularly good option for older teachers who might find it difficult to secure jobs in some other European countries. The standard program runs for 10 months from September to mid-June, with an orientation week prior to the start. There are also six month positions available from January to June. Teachers receive a regular salary that is equal to local coworkers, no income tax is required, plus national health insurance, and paid holidays. The work visa also allows you to travel across Europe. Teachers also receive a private, furnished apartment with all utilities covered for the duration of their contract. Partners, friends or families can often be placed together. How to apply. If you are interested in the program and would like further details you should visit the SETP website. In order to be accepted on the program applicants must submit the following documents. Teflor TESOL certification that includes at least 20 hours of practical classroom teaching. Letter from doctor confirming your good health, work visa requirement. Notarized copy of your university diploma. Background check. Net scheme for teaching English in Hong Kong. The net, native speaking English teachers scheme is a recruitment program initiated by the Hong Kong Education Bureau that places qualified teachers from overseas countries into state run schools. The scheme recruits hundreds of teachers every year to work in either primary or secondary level schools across the territory. Requirements and more information about the program. You must be a native English speaker or possess an exceptionally high standard of English language competence. Applicants must be less than 58 years of age at the contract start date. Monthly salary of between 25,000 Hong Kong dollars and 60,000, currently 3,200 US dollars to 7,700, dependent upon relevant experience. Assistance finding suitable accommodation plus a housing allowance of around 20,000 Hong Kong dollars per month. Paid round-trip airfare from your home country, including up to four family members. Relocation allowance to assist with the transport costs of personal belongings. Stipe in for medical insurance coverage. The scheme is split into two separate areas for primary level teachers and secondary level teachers known as PNET and SNET. Applicants for the PNET scheme work with primary students aged from 6 to 12, with a typical class size of 30 to 37. The qualifications required for these positions are a degree in English, a teacher training qualification in primary education, and a TEFL-TESOL certification. In the event that not enough teachers meet these requirements, those with a lower level of qualifications are considered. If accepted on the SNET scheme you will work with secondary students in an average class size of 40 to 45. The stated criteria for these positions are a degree in English or education, a postgraduate diploma in education, a TEFL-TESOL diploma, and at least one year of teaching experience at secondary level. Once again, if recruitment numbers are not met then applicants with fewer qualifications are considered. How to apply, please visit the official net scheme website to apply. English opens doors program for teaching English in Chile. Chile is one of the most stable and prosperous countries in Latin America and has long been a popular destination for ESL teachers. The popular English opens doors program is sponsored by the Chilean Ministry of Education and the United Nations Development Programme and places foreign teachers into schools across Chile on a volunteer basis. Participants on the scheme work as teaching assistants with the aim of improving the English language skills of children ranging from 10 to 18 years old. Requirements and more information about the program. Open to native or near native English speakers between the ages of 21 and 35, applicants outside this age range are assessed on an individual basis. You must possess a bachelor's degree. You require sufficient finances to pay for transportation to and from Chile, as well as living expenses during your stay. Any teaching qualifications or experience of international travel will also be taken into consideration when applying for the program. All housing costs and meals are covered if you choose the homestay option. Monthly stipend of 70,000 Chilean pesos, currently 110 US dollars, plus free visa, free health insurance and free online Spanish lessons. Week-long orientation course in Santiago. Free transport within Chile. How to apply? To apply for this scheme, please visit the official EITP website. Are you ready for teaching English abroad? Thanks so much for watching. We are ITTT the leading provider for TEFL and TESOL training courses. If you like this video, please subscribe by clicking that button down here and click on any of the videos here on the left for more interesting teaching tips for getting certified to teach English abroad and online.