Good morning, good afternoon. Dear participants, for 50 years the World Economic Forum has been the flag barrier for stakeholder responsibility. Today is a milestone in implementing the stakeholder principle into the management of companies. The measuring stakeholder capitalism report that has just been released by the Forum's International Business Council suggests practical metrics that companies can measure and report on. This will allow executives, investors, employees and other stakeholders to see how the company performs on metals that reflect society as a whole, such as climate change and biodiversity, workplace diversity and inclusion, and good governance. And as a consequence, they will herald a sea change in the way companies are run and evaluated. We are very proud of these steps. We are proud that business leaders, such as the ones present here today, have taken the lead in giving meaning to stakeholder capitalism. With these metrics, the business world will finally be able to walk the talk on their commitment to ESG performance and the stakeholder principle. I look forward to the discussions that will follow now. And I want to thank Brian Morinian, who led this IBC initiative, as well as our partners from the four largest audit firms, Carmen Decibio, Bob Moritz, Pundit Rennian and Bill Thomas. And of course, Chilean Ted of the FT for being present here today. Good morning, everyone. Or as Professor Schwab just said, good afternoon, good evening, depending from wherever in the world you're watching. We're delighted you joined us. My name is Chilean Ted. I'm with the Financial Times. I'm also co-founder of the Financial Times, this moral money platform, which looks at environmental, social and governance issues, which is what we are talking about today. Specifically, we're talking about the launch of stakeholder capitalism metrics, which is a rather unwieldy mouthful. We might also call it simply the launch of the accountant as an activist or the warrior accountant, because the initiative to promote ESG metrics is fantastically important for anybody who cares about the ESG and sustainability debate. We have something on the first day, which is we have the heads of all four big accounting firms, Pundit Rennian of Deloitte, Carmine Decibio from Ernst & Young, Bill Thomas from KPMG and Bob Muritz of PWC, all sitting together to talk about why they consider these new metrics to be so important and why this very long and very time-consuming and sometimes torturous initiative to get them launched has taken place. But we also have Brian Moynihan, who is both CEO of Bank of America and chair of the International Business Council, who's played a critical role in pushing through this whole initiative. So we're going to hear from them all about why they've done this, why it's so important, and where it's going now. But I'd like to start perhaps with Brian and ask you, Brian, why did you feel that now was the time to push for these ESG metrics? Oh, good morning, Dylan, and thank you for taking your time to help us launch these metrics. I think there's a couple key things, a couple confluence that came together. Obviously, just heard Klaus talk about 50 years ago, he put on the map the concept of stakeholder capitalism, thinking about all constituencies that a company has to operate against. And so that's one, that's the backdrop. The other big backdrop is the sustainable development goals, which the metrics align themselves again, which the IBC a few years ago, three years ago now, said our companies, we will manage our companies to help make progress on the SDGs. So that's another key criteria. Another key criteria is one of a group of assigned a letter saying we would achieve carbon neutrality, asking people to achieve carbon neutrality. And then we've had many people respond to that. But then you came down to the more pragmatic question, which is how do you align capitalism with the goals from society? And how do you make it happen? And how do you measure that? And how do you do it in a way that can consolidate all these measurement systems and bring one set of metrics that the big four accounting firms that we'll hear from my colleagues in that can endorse and help companies get through and publish so that people can judge whether they're making progress? Because the research shows that companies who don't make progress on the SDG goals or SDG goals tend not to do as well. And those that make progress tend to do better. And so the idea is to give investors, owners and others the ability to measure that progress so that we push for what society needs and use the strength of capitalism, innovation, the capital and the capabilities to help drive a fork. So it's all those events coming together. And here is a set of metrics that companies agree. And my big four colleagues will talk about how they've worked with companies, worked on metrics, but the companies agree are substantial, accountable and also meet the test of many of the different standards that are out there. Right. Well, thank you, Brian. Well, I'm curious, by the way, I should say that, you know, we are, I'd like everyone improvising right now. We're talking from all over the world. We've got Klaus and Geneva, I believe. We've got Puneet, who's over in Oregon. We've got Brian in South Carolina. We've got Bill, who's in Toronto. We've got Carmine, who I think is actually in New Jersey. And Bob, I've lost track of where Bob is, but you can tell us in a moment or I've got you mixed up. I'm in Manhattan. So it really is a sign of the times. But I'd like to... So if the links go a bit funny, please, anyone watching, please be patient. But I'd like to turn to Puneet over in Oregon and ask you, from the point of view of Deloitte, why do we need even more metrics? Because we already have an horrible alphabet soup of different sustainability standards. SASB, TCFD, GRI, et cetera, et cetera. Why do we need another one? First, thank you for the question. I think Brian addressed it, Jillian, to achieve results and make progress against CSTGs, we believed and the IBC agreed that we needed a common set of metrics that everybody could sign up to. And that's exactly what this project has achieved. And Brian said this quite eloquently. I think it is proven that businesses that focus on all stakeholders and the planet over the long term do better. And so what we're trying to do here is measure and as a result, achieve what the STG aspirations are with the common set of metrics. So try to incorporate the other metrics into what you're doing or have them running parallel. And then I'm going to turn to Carmine. But go ahead, Carmine. Oh, well, actually, Puneet, first, just to clarify for anyone watching, are the other metrics going to run in parallel or be incorporated? No, our initiative calls for these metrics to be adopted. And they're a common set. And we've gone through a long process. We've taken a year. We've engaged extensively with the IBC members, which are the leading companies in the world. And we focused on the four areas that broadly encompass the STGs, governance, people, prosperity in the planet. And we believe that the core metrics and the expanded metrics provide a common set of metrics that companies are prepared to sign up for. Right. I'm going to come back to the issue in a moment about how they dovetail with other metrics. But Carmine, explain to us why the International Business Council got involved, because there are other bodies out there which have been promoting metrics. Why has the IBC and the World Economic Forum played such a pivotal role this time around? Yeah. So, Jillian, to reinforce what Puneet just said, the IBC got involved and really got involved because it was a place where companies belong to and we could really make progress on companies adhering to a common set of metrics. As Puneet said, we started over a year ago and we decided that we were all going to work on this together. We all took one of those streams that Puneet mentioned and worked on it with Brian's team and with Klaus's team from the West. The whole concept was to not create new metrics, but to take all the metrics that are out there from all the frameworks that are out there, so GRI, SASB, we were actually involved, EY was involved in a project called Epic. We took all those metrics, consolidated them, worked with the IBC members for over a year, as Puneet said, to come down to these 21 core metrics that we feel incorporates everything that's out there. We're not trying to replace anything out there, we're just trying to convene and come up with a common set of metrics that companies can sign up to. There are regulators, there are standard setters, there are other organizations out there that have metrics that are pushing us along, but this was the time, the convening power of the IBC and WEF where actually companies could come together and commit to something we thought was very important. The idea of having all the big four working together, which is something that as far as I know, we haven't done much of like this, has worked really well. So we've incorporated most of the, all the metrics that were out there, we have a common set, and we're really asking the IBC members and other companies in general to commit to these 21 core metrics. Right, right. Other than understanding, it's actually the first time we've had the CEOs of all the big four coming together for a joint webinar like this, I mean, not quite on the same platform, the same virtual platform, I guess, this is the Countings version of Kumbaya moment. But I'd like to ask you, if you have a company coming to you now saying, okay, so you've made this announcement, what does it mean for us? What are you telling them? I mean, is there a clear sort of idiot's guide to how to translate this actually into business action and are all the big four giving the same message on this one? Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Jillian. Let me just pick up on your point. I mean, I think this, I'm incredibly proud of the fact that we're all involved in this. And certainly in my tenure in this role, I can't think of a time where we came together because, and I think it just highlights the importance of the topic. So if you think about the benefit to companies, I think there's to your point, there's lots of benefits. But if let me just focus on a couple. So consistency, these metrics allow companies to report in a consistent way. Why is that important? They set their strategy and transparently report against it. They've now got a confidence that there's a level playing field. And I think that that frees them to sort of make decisions that can happen today. And why I think we've, Carmine talked to it, we found the report has been well received. So in the report, you'll see 85% of the corporate respondents believe that this is good for their company and even more believe that it's good for financial markets and the economy. But I think the biggest reason, I mean, if we're talking to any stakeholder through this process, one of the biggest reasons to do it is the impact on people. You know, if you think about attracting and retaining the very best people today, they want to work for an organization as a purpose beyond simply profits. They know that business has to play a role to build a better, more sustainable society. And to a point that was mentioned earlier companies that lead on this reporting, they can look their employees in the eye and say they are walking the talk, which I think truly helps to attract simply the best and the brightest. Right. I mean, because the other question I have is, you know, how globally coordinated is this going to be? Because, you know, we haven't managed to have globally coordinated accounting standards in non-sustainability sector. Is your vision that this is going to be globally coordinated or globally adopted? And if so, how does that dovetail with the fact that, you know, the European Commission is producing its own metrics right now and America or the federal element of the American government is going in different direction? I mean, Bob, how would you square that circle right now? Yeah. So, Jillian, it's a great question. But let me go back to the premise. The premise is this is good for society. Society's got a number of challenges. And as a result, society should benefit from this effort going forward, which is getting the right information in people's hands to make these judgments and take action. In order to do that, we want to have consistency across the world. And what we'd like to do and avoid is that fragmentation that you described earlier. And what we're hoping for here is this is basically led by the business community. We're trying to get ahead of that alphabet soup from the various agencies and we're trying to influence the regulators around the world, the standard setters around the world, the rating agencies around the world to say, these are the ones that we truly believe as a business community are the right measures to start with. We're not looking for perfection. We're looking for progress. And we'd like some consistency to demonstrate both that progress that Bill just talked about and that comparability. So the whole peer is that as we go forward, we will lead, just like with accounting standards, generally accepted before rules and regulations come into place such that the generally accepted and those that are practiced influence the rules, the regulations. And then we can cascade and scale those rules and regulations for more alignment, more consistency, and better comparability on a worldwide basis. Right. So, and Brian, from the point of view of the financial community, is this going to become the benchmark for deciding which companies banks like yourself will actually lend to or not lend to? Or, you know, who investment groups asset managers should be investing in or not?  Brian? Well, I think that that that's a that is a true goal of this and the other. So the first goal is to actually do the right thing and help make progress in the SDGs. But if you're operating a company, you have a lot of people coming to you saying, do this particular element, do this particular element. Well, this is more comprehensive. Number one and two, it's driven on a set of metrics that all the companies can disclose over time that gives a chance to be judged consistently and independently. And so if you think about that, that's important. So as a lender, we're often asked to not lend a community to company A because they're in industry, in industry, or not in as an investor, if we have $3 trillion in assets under management or wealth management platforms, not allow your your your clients to invest in company A. What we're hoping to achieve with this is saying this isn't a binary invest, don't invest. Think about having 10 companies in an industry being able to see consistent metrics across all of the ones at the top who are doing the right thing and making progress and whatever goals they set, should be lent it to, should be invested in, and should be encouraged to keep going. That's the care part. The ones at the bottom who either haven't disclosed or have disclosed and aren't making progress, people should ask them, when are you going to make the progress? Because the end of day, what these metrics represent is the progress that society wants companies to make in order to help meet the goals of society. So that clarity and that setting, it has a benefit to companies because they know what to disclose and how to disclose it, but also has a benefit to lenders like ourselves, we can then use it and say, look, look on those metrics, you don't have to be number one, you just have to be doing something and making good progress in accordance to your goals, then we can stay with you and help you make that transition happen. And I think that's an important difference between a divest, a binary divest or don't invest or lend or don't lend decision, which becomes completely about just sort of getting out of an industry and doesn't become about helping make all these industries make the transformation, whether it's on human capital issues, but importantly, the environmental piece is what this has a lot to do with the near term. Hey, Jillian, the one thing I'd say, if I can, this is all about information and information actually drives decision making. And to Brian's point, what we're looking for here is, for example, a company should have better information to make their own decisions in terms of how to incent change, behavioral change, process change, and focus consistent with the strategy. The investors, as Brian rightly focused on is, let's get the investors the right information to make the right decisions to have the biggest impact. As Bill Thomas talked about, let's make sure that the employees or future employees have the right information to say, who is doing what and where do I want to actually contribute as an employee going forward? As a consumer, who's making the progress? So we're looking for is demonstrating the right progress and, yes, using these to make choices, be it an insurer, investment bank, analyst, or otherwise. Jillian, that comes back a little bit to the question was, because this is driven by the businesses saying, we agree these are the metrics that implement the SDGs, we believe we can disclose this and we will disclose these. What you then have is a consolidating effort among all the different standard bearers of rating agencies that everything Bill talked about, to drive them towards a set of metrics. Now, there'll be different points of view. Somebody will have a metric they like better than one of the metrics we chose, etc. But these metrics represent a lot of people's thinking and these four colleagues of mine who did a lot of work, a lot of companies, to boil down. Everything existed at all the different standard setters and said, what are the important ones that companies can actually do? And that's a critical thing. This is a doable scheme. And so we already have companies that will be signing up and going, it's a doable scheme as opposed to it's a theoretical scheme. And we're about to actually getting stuff done. I was just going to add, to me, it gives companies and it gives analysts a chance to really look at companies for the long term and look at their long term value as Bob said around clients, people and society for all stakeholders. And I think these metrics as they get developed, as people disclose them, you'll be able to really see a company's long term value as opposed to some of the financial metrics out there now that are very short term oriented. So I do think it will be incredibly important for investors in particular long term thinking investors. So I'm curious, I'd like to bring in both Puneeta and Bill on this one. In terms of the breadth of these metrics, are you not concerned that they will end up looking like a jack-of-all-trades and master of none, that they're just too broad brush to actually have much meaning and that your faith more targeted about greenwashing, going down the, or woke washing, going down the path? Puneeta or Bill, do you have you on that? Yeah, look, I think there's a potential risk there, Gillian, but the truth of the matter is, is that a set of 21 metrics that cover the gamut of the four topics that we talked about with a comply or explain type mindset and mandate attached to them. Brian's point about momentum, pragmatic, and listen and tweak for potential unintended consequences is a way better route than another two years of analyzing, try and get it perfect, and actually don't do anything. So is it going to be a perfect right out of the gate? Are we going to run into the potential for what you just described? Sure, but I think as long as we have the right attitude, the right mindset, and we work with the organizations, we work with the standard setters to tweak this as we go, we're going to be way better off than we would if we did nothing. And I think what I would add is, as has been said, we started with the broad funnel. We looked at all the metrics, and we've in a very pragmatic way narrowed them down in four critical areas that cover the entire gamut of the SDGs. So you're looking at about three or four metrics per area in a very pragmatic, tangible way. Listen, it's been said, but I want to reinforce the point. This is not only the right thing to do, it is the right business thing to do. And for all the points that have already been made. And so, Gillian, I believe it'll be a small set of tangible metrics, and I think they will be based on, in the least, the companies that we've interacted with over the last year, there will be a good take up on this. Any of you concerned that in a country like America, which is very litigious, having these metrics might leave companies open to liability with? I'm happy to take that one start, if you want. But those risks exist today. Right. And these risks, again, let's go back to the basics of what was said. What we tried to do was actually talk about and gather the metrics that already exist, and put them together in a framework to get that progress and comparability noted. And as a result, one of the challenges, not only from a US, but a worldwide perspective, is to talk about the downstream implications as we move forward on this journey. And that's where actually working with the regulators and agencies, government agencies, Gillian's going to be so important as we progress this on a going forward basis. The reality is the stakeholders want to need this. A lot of cases, they're already getting it, perhaps in bit pieces in a fragmented way by those companies, by what they say to an analyst, by what they say in a transparency report or a corporate responsibility report, bring it together so we can actually demonstrate the comparability and progress to actually bring it to life. And we'll work through the liability issues as we move forward in various countries. It's not just a US issue. It's actually a much broader issue as we look at the world today. But hopefully we focus on the good and not necessarily downside and those minimal issues. I'm going to say minimal, don't get in the way of progress. We know we got challenges, but we got to take this first step. Otherwise, we'll never move forward. Yeah, the other, I mean, this was brought up, Gillian. And in fact, Brian hosted a number of companies just in August when we had our summer session at WEF. And one of the CEOs that was in my focus group brought this up. I think it's a legitimate concern. And if you think about mitigating risk, you certainly have to mitigate legal risk. But if you're looking long term, you're also interested in brand and brand risk. If you don't do this, I think you are subjecting your brand because there are multiple stakeholders that are asking for this to to risks. So you've got to, I mean, we're certainly going to mitigate legal risk, as Bob said, but brand risk needs to be taken into account as well. So in practical terms, as I understand it, but none of you are yet able to implement all of these 21 or 34 metrics right now in your own operations, but you're aiming to do so in January. Is that correct? And you're hoping that the IBC members, so 130 of those will be essentially most of them will be implementing it in the 2021 accounts. Is that correct? Brian, do you have any thoughts? Sure. Gillian, the path forward really was, this started almost two years ago with this group of companies talking about short term, long term issues over the last couple of years before that. And we came to the idea that one thing you had to do is be able to measure stakeholder capitalism and long term strategic progress on the things that are critical. And so this has been a long time. So there's been a lot of work done to sort of decipher the metrics and go through them, everything my colleagues have described. That piece is behind us now. The consultation's done. This has been taken in front of many, many different accounting groups, standard setters, rating agencies and investors, et cetera. So now the idea is today we released the document. And now the question is what do we do next? Well, we have a bunch of companies who have signed up and said, I will start disclosing these. Sometimes they can't disclose every one of them because they're still working on the calculation going to your point that you want to make sure it's right. And those accounting firms are helping them figure out how to make sure that number is findable through the books and records of the company and can be, you know, attested to and make sure the CEOs and the CFOs feel comfortable. So one is we get companies signing up. But with the goal of between now and sort of January timeframe when the web enemy would be we'd have a group of companies signing that would be released, that those companies are on board to disclose immediately what they can and then what they can over the next couple of years and then sort of roll through. The question that comes up then is, okay, those are big 130 companies. What do you do after that? Well, all of us have been working with groups of directors that are on medium-sized company boards, even private investors saying these metrics may not, every one of them might not apply to a non-public company, for example. But the idea is we have to get all companies to agree that this goes on or a substantial majority. Otherwise, you might start to see arbitrage to private companies, state-owned companies who won't agree to make these disclosures. So that's another round of work that's going on. But the core near term is get the people to sign up and start disclosing and let that momentum carry this as being a standard of which then the rest of the standard bears can start to coalesce around. Right. So basic message is, although Davos is not going to happen, the World Economic Forum in person in January, there will be a round of online meetings and discussions in January. So watch this space and there's going to be a lot of work in 2021 coming up in relation to this. Sadly, very sadly, we are out of time. There's going to be a virtual session afterwards in the lounge, link to top link from where the World Economic Forum, where anyone who's watching who wants more discussion with a friendly accountant will find representative, senior representative from the Big Four waiting to answer all of your questions collaboratively. And also, you can read the entire report online at the website. So it just remains for me to say a big thank you to all of you from taking parts from everywhere from Toronto through to South Carolina through to Oregon and Geneva and Manhattan. Thanks to all of you for watching. And on the personal note, I should say that as someone who trained as an anthropologist, I used to think that it was going to be activists, anthropologists chaining themselves the bulldozers who are going to change the world on the green side. It's been quite humbling to discover actually may end up being a new breed of warrior accountant who's picking up the green and social activist agenda. But accounting is something which is not usually seen as being deeply cool or involved in activism. But it's certainly interesting to see how it's developing now. So best of luck to all of you in trying to reshape the world through the accounting systems, we'll be tracking it closely at the Financial Times and Moral Money platform. And I look forward to hearing more of the debate through the World Economic Forum and IBC going forward. So thank you.


If you are dissatisfied with your life, then ask yourself, what is your life a metaphor for? It may well be that your life is a metaphor for the life you really want to be living.  Live the real thing. Don't live the shadow version of what you want to do. Do it, because the clock is ticking, time's running out, it's never too late, they say, but it can get more complicated the later you leave it to do some things. So if you're in a shadow career, a shadows of what you really want to do, come out of the shadows and step up and get on stage as it were, and be the singer, instead of be the guy or the woman all the time, watching the singer and thinking, I wish that was me. It can be start today. Shadow careers, interesting, eh?


Our first relation to others are within the family. It is relationship as an infant, and then as a child, with parents and siblings. This is our human foundation. Mary has a baby. It is wonderful in one sense. In another it is nothing but burden. The new person that has grown within her has separated and has become an individual person. It is also a person who does nothing on his or her own but demand. It is a person who can do nothing for him or herself beyond basic body functions. In many ways, mother and baby is a trust relationship. Human life as a separate being begins with a newborn who can do nothing, apparent as an adult who is entrusted to see to the needs and wants of a baby provides for both its life and its welfare. Every growing young human learns one lesson after another and soaks up knowledge of their environment. And with each new lesson on how to do things for him or herself, the child learns to take part in his or her own life and welfare. It is the corresponding role of the parent to support that learning and to support the child who learns to feed him or herself. Parents usually thrill to the witness that a child is learning to walk so that they do not have to carry him or her everywhere else. The thrill they see when their child's play with safe objects watching the child learn to manipulate things with fingers and hands. Growing up does not reach pause points and neither does the role of a parent cease. It also changes and grows to address new sets of wants and needs as the youngster grows. The young child learns to survive and prosper in the presence of others, most strangers and peers. The child learns that siblings share many things with him or her as do other young children. They learn to sort this out and parents watch as they take in their early social lessons. With continued growth, they reach a point where they can accept factual understandings and this is where we have positioned public education, providing the classroom environment to be something akin to a family and later morphing into a purpose-based grouping of others most like themselves in age and maturity. It is the human family that is the same for all students. It is every child's need for parenting. This has provided that most wonderful and effective foundation that we generally term trust. There is an incredible personal value for every human being in being able to trust those around them. Social education, with the help of its non-family experts, is available for children who reach an appropriate mental and physical maturity, almost always at around age five. It is then that the intellectual lessons can begin in earnest. Still, the foundation is family and it is a source for the trust that the student puts into the teacher as an adult tasked with the welfare of children. It is that trust that makes education possible and it is human for a younger child who trusts an adult in the school environment. There is a different level of trust between the parent and classroom teacher. It is still trust based on a shared purpose in caring for and promoting the future of a child. The most important differences are in the educational lessons received by the teacher and corporate constraints placed upon the teacher. These are constraints as to the lessons presented and constraints as to the corporate class management behaviors. It is here that students are racked for punishment and reward against other children, which no parent would ever do to their own children. It is here that knowing something is presented as more valuable than what you might be able to do with that knowledge. It is here that authority of the school is promoted at the expense of parental authority. It would be wrong to blame this on teachers. It is the corporate system in which they are required to function. They are human beings and largely past and present parents to their own children. Even as parents, teachers have been educated within the system we have. It is education on what they must do to succeed within it as teachers. They do what they have learned and the system rewards them. If they do something else, they face censure. In going to modern schools, learning which took the child from a helpless and isolated being at birth to a walking, talking, and moderately self-sufficient part of a family slows to a crawl. It switches from what the child can do to what they should do and from learning how to be effective to learning what every child should know. This is where we pick up the study of performance. Teenage students coming to intellectual awareness that they are the only real party in interest. It is as early teenagers that the student realizes they are not just passive receivers at the end of an educational pipeline. They have a purpose and their purpose is the purpose of education.


Bacteria and archaea have developed multiple antiviral mechanisms, present a tool that automatically detects known antiviral systems in prokaryotic genomes and show that variations in antiviral strategies correlate with genome size, viral threat, and lifestyle traits. This article was authored by Florian Tessen, Alexandra Hevey, Ernest Mordred, and others.


This is Stink Tech, Hawaii. Community matters here. Bingo, we're back. This is Jay Fidel with research at Minoa. I'm wearing my hat and my cat's a delicatessen hat because it's raining so hard. And my umbrella broke when I took my morning walk today and I got so wet, I couldn't believe it. It was so wet in my neighborhood and the water was raging down the street. It was awful. In fact, it cut our walk short. That's Dennis Juan. Dennis is with the faculty at UHC Grant College program, which is affiliated with NOAA.  Yeah. Today we're going to take stock. It couldn't be a more appropriate take stock of what's going on with our current Olivia, but also we also want to connect up and see what does Olivia have to do with Florence on the East Coast and with all the other hurricanes that are going on in the world. So we're going to divide the show in two parts. One is we're going to take a status report on what's happening outside and the other is we're going to connect up a sort of global connection of all these hurricanes and climate change. Welcome again to the show, Dennis. Thank you, Jay. It's good to be back. It's appropriate time. There's a lot of activity going on right now. A lot of things to learn from what's going on. Yeah, isn't that true? Yeah. It's like you always want to learn from every calamity and for that matter, every extreme storm so we can do better the next time. That's right. And today we're going to have some pictures for Florence, Aniki, Lane and Olivia. We'll cover all of those. We'll show you some relationships that I think may be important for your listeners or viewers and a lot of things to go over. Okay. Well first you have some pictures and by those pictures we can take a closer look at what's going on with Olivia right now in Hawaii. So take it away, Dennis. Okay. So actually why don't we go to the first picture then and we're actually going to go to Florence because this is a typical graph from the National Weather Service. They'll produce this on the east coast for the systems there and also in Hawaii for the Pacific and it's very important that your readers know how to understand this graph. Okay. So that white cone is your cone of uncertainty. Okay. So a lot of people have been exposed to that. They may not realize that that cone supposed to represent 67% accuracy. So where that X is, this is by the way Hurricane Florence and it was just taken a few hours ago for the National Weather Service report in the Atlantic and where that X is where the center of the hurricane is and that cone represents the cone of uncertainty with a 67% accuracy. That means that there's still a 30% or 33% chance that the eye could go outside of that cone anywhere along that cone. And then the other thing to note is the dark brown is where the extent of the hurricane force winds, it's a very large system Florence. It's right now it's a category 320 mile per hour sustained winds and the diameter for the light brown circle is over several hundred miles in diameter and what's important that you note is even if the eye goes in the cone or outside of the cone, the extent of the hurricane force winds and the tropical storm winds are going to go way outside of that. So for instance, say the eye goes, makes landfall near the northern part of the cone, the hurricane winds and the tropical storm winds could affect Virginia or further north. And if the eye were to go along the southern border of that cone, the tropical storm winds could affect Georgia or Florida. So it's very important to understand what that cone represents and also realize that this is a relatively new product. National Weather Service has started doing this. The cone of uncertainty. The cone of uncertainty combined with the wind fields. The wind fields are the the the brown blob, dark brown blob and the lighter blob which represent hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds. So it's very important to realize that you could get impacts outside of the cone. Very important to always follow National Weather Service. Where is the M? There was these black dots. What is that? The M stands for major hurricane. Okay, so when it and then when it it's category three, four or five, one or two is hurricane and then you'll see sometimes it'll convert to an S where it means it's a tropical storm. Okay, you can learn a lot from that. Yes, it's important because a lot of people think I'm outside of the cone. I don't need to worry but that's not the case and they need to have always always listen to TV and radio always you know listen for the updates and usually the National Weather Service has six hour updates. 5 a.m. 11 a.m. 5 p.m. 11 p.m. Okay, so you should be watching the cone but it needs to have these reports because it changes. Right, it's going to change. Outside of the cone are you safe? No, you're still there still could be risk involved. You know, it's better to be outside of the cone than inside the cone but you still need to have be alert and won't monitor what's going on. Okay. You said this was a category three. Yes, off of the Carolinas and it's you said it was 120 sustained. 120 mile per hour sustained. That's pretty serious. If that came ashore in Hawaii that would do a lot of damage, wouldn't it? Yes, well actually maybe we should go to the next slide because we'll show exactly what could happen. Yeah, let's do that. Okay, so why don't we go to the next slide. Okay, so this is a Niki making a landfall on Kauai as a category four hurricane. It actually at the time it had 120 mile per hour sustained winds just like Florence now but the winds were amplified because it was moving so far, moving forward so fast like the forward movement like 20 miles per hour at it to 120 miles per hour rotational speed gave you the 140 mile per hour wind speed when it made landfall. So it was actually a category three or four when Niki made landfall. But the key thing to note is if Niki had turned north six hours earlier instead of impacting Kauai would have hit Oahu and instead of damaging six or seven thousand structures it could have damaged 50,000 structures or damaged or destroyed 50,000 structures. That's confirmed in a risk assessment. A lot of people do not realize how vulnerable Oahu is and when we saw this information actually this is really one of the main reasons that spurred us to do the homeowners handbook because realize there's so many people that are vulnerable and they don't really understand the risk that's involved and all the different ways they could do to try and protect themselves. So this is very instructive about what could happen. So you say vulnerable, what do you mean by vulnerable? Certainly there's going to be a multiple of ten times as many structures both office structures and residential structures like Oahu as in say Kauai. Is that what you mean by vulnerable or is it infrastructure where some of those structures actually are providing infrastructure to the community and if you break them then all the structures become you know deprived. Yeah well it's both I mean because we're talking primarily about structures here like houses and buildings but the infrastructure is going to be impacted also and by vulnerable we mean that it's exposed so it's exposed to the storm surge the rain and the wind okay not only it is exposed but there it's sensitive to these impacts because like some of the buildings are old you know so they won't withstand very withstand the forces very well that's what we mean by vulnerable there's exposure there's sensitivity to these potential impacts and you know it's that's really the worst case almost the worst case scenario. Is it fair to say that a more densely populated area is always more vulnerable than a less densely populated area? Yes because they have more exposure yeah it's the number of structures that are essentially Oahu has eight times more structures than Kauai so if you have six or seven thousand houses damaged or destroyed on Kauai multiply that by eight that's where we get roughly the fifty thousand that and then there's still other things like impact infrastructure power lines roads trees you know other things for that matter yeah services that supply the neighbor islands right so if you have damage to centralized services of any kind in Oahu that's going to have a secondary effect on neighbor islands right yeah so let's see some more of your pictures okay so can we get the next picture okay so this is Lane and really we had three systems we do a lot of outreach in throughout the state over the last years and the people that we find the most difficult to reach are on Oahu it's not be it's not related to like the how the county agencies are formed that the emergency management structure or anything like we think it's related more like just the fact that people on Oahu are more urbanized in a way they think more about business maybe they're less in tune with nature but they seem to be the least prepared and or take preparation the most likely so here's Lane and here's it's you see and it's a major category hurricane this is just as strong as Florence is right now at this point in time and it's start it's it has a projection to curve and threaten the Hawaiian islands and especially Oahu okay now if it were not for this shear remember the system got sheared off yeah and then the trade winds pushed the bottom of the hurricane to the west okay but that's what happened but potentially if there was no shear the system would have continued north as a pretty strong hurricane threatening Oahu and the other islands so here you have like two scenarios that happen one is what actually happened which Lane was a non-event for a lot of people on Oahu and they may say oh there's not going to be any impact there's no need to prepare the other scenario is something similar to a Niki where the system curves north and hits Oahu as a major as a strong hurricane and tens of thousands of structures are damaged and all of a sudden people something like this could happen in a matter of a day or two you know depending on the scenario people be caught off surprise that's why people really got to understand the risk there is risk out there and they really got to be proactive about preparing they just can't prepare for Lane or Olivia they need to all their preparations need to be for the short term but extrapolated into the long term so that so that it it goes into 2019 for instance and I'll explain what's we'll explain shortly about that why that's important yeah okay all right are we ready for our break then Dennis sure you want to take another picture we can sure let's take another picture okay well and here is here's Olivia this was taken just a few hours ago released from the National Weather Service and again you see the cone of uncertainty the the center of the tropical storm is over Maui now it's already made landfall on Maui and Lanai and here's where here's why it's important to see the wind field do you see the light brown circle yeah wind field that shows that even though Oahu looks like it's outside the cone of uncertainty yeah they still project tropical storm some type of tropical storm winds for Oahu let me talk about 60 70 80 90 miles an hour no not that high in this case over 39 miles per hour okay so so that's that's and what's what's important even though let Olivia weekend you know it's very important people you know after Olivia occurs and people go Olivia wasn't that bad I'll forget about it until hurricane season 29 the that's not what we're trying to do we're trying to get people in order to make a difference to move the needle to prevent 50,000 structures from being damaged destroyed from a major hurricane people gotta think about these things all the time they gotta think about it now it's the new normal and prepare before we before we go to the break I just want to ask you what you have an S there and you have can I go back to that picture and have an S and a D okay what is that sign that stands for tropical storm D is a tropical depression so you'll see in this moment in this new in this these products from National Weather Service they'll have either an M for major hurricane H hurricane S tropical storm the tropical depression and that's that's what it's projected to be in the future is the wind shear phenomenon working now I think I think there's a little wind shear it's it and you know we would have to talk the National Weather Service there is some wind shear but I don't think it's as strong as the wind shear that Lane encountered a few weeks ago could we go to a more slider well let me ask you a question first though and that is could we have a surprise northerly turn here as it comes off Maui could it turn to the north and and the center of that wind hit Oahu is that possible I think it's it's slight it's probably it's not very possible I mean a National Weather Service has done has a pretty good handle and the direction of Olivia for this system and then even if it were to turn north which is probably it probably won't it's it's very unlikely that it will intensify so the winds right now are are I think they're 45 or 50 mile per hour sustained winds it's not like a it's like a weak tropical storm it's not it's not a strong tropical storm like a cell was yeah so is it fair to say we've been through the worst of it right now here at almost 330 well it's hard to say because we're just talking about the winds now and then there was the rain the rain has the rain bands have a larger extent than the wind so there's still some impacts possible for you know for the rain on Oahu and we know we don't know exactly what's going on in Maui now there there is a fair amount of rain going on right right now yeah in my house there's plenty of rain yeah okay we got any more pictures you want to go break now one last one maybe last picture okay that's another picture that's okay this is the same one okay this is another graph I that I use the three products that I find most useful for national weather service are the cone of uncertainty with the wind field and then this one is a tropical storm wind probability they also have a hurricane wind probability but it shows at this point in time where the center of the system is and say for Oahu there's a colored bar or legend at the bottom so on Oahu there's like a 40% chance with it that's where the yellow is that yellow is it's roughly a 40% chance that will get tropical storm winds on Oahu okay so I used that a lot and then the other one I use a lot I find very useful is the expected arrival time of tropical storm winds and this is all related to preparation yeah so we're gonna get the next report at six o'clock today 5 p.m. 5 p.m. today yeah and we'll know then I mean they'll tell us then what what the estimated time of arrival is I guess well yeah well they you they already I mean it's essentially arrived it's it's weakened it's it's weakened Olivia that's why I'm feeling I'm not feeling too bad about it because yes I surmise that even in case of the rain we've already seen the worst of it at least in my neighborhood well yeah well yeah it's hard to say because they're rain bands and you could get no rain and then another rain band could come around and and centric rain band yeah concentric rain band so hard to say less always listen to TV and radio for for the because they they they were in tune with National Weather Service I'm sort of like trying to give you a big picture of the risk that's very valuable to the future yeah and we're gonna go even a little more into the future in the next part we are we take a break first and then back and talk about the future and the connection of these storms all together yes on a global basis we'll be right back after this okay sure this is think tech Hawaii raising public awareness this then it's one on the faculty at UHC Grant College which is affiliated with NOAA we're talking today we're giving a status report on Olivia Olivia Olivia Olivia woman's name and what does Olivia have to do with Florence and other hurricanes so this is the part I like now you have more you have more photographs yeah what we're gonna talk about in this part of the show okay well I'd like to talk about the fact that we're in an El Nino watch right now so I'm gonna explain what that is what the significance is how could affect the risk and I want people to understand that there you know that there is a lot more risk than people think there is yeah yeah we can't be complacent about this yeah okay well you have more pictures let's sure let's go through them okay so this is a report by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center it was actually two days ago they put this out and part of NOAA it's just like NOAA is a huge organization like National Weather Service is part of NOAA Sea Grant we're affiliated with NOAA and this is the Climate Prediction Center these people are not on Hawaii they're in Baltimore, Maryland but there are a bunch of scientists studying climate climate they're looking at a big picture yeah and they're and specifically they're looking at something called El Nino so we're gonna talk about something called La Niña El Nino cycles in the Pacific and what is the significance of it what does it mean yeah so can we get the next let's go to the next one this is really getting more global okay but you're gonna see how it relates to Hawaii okay so currently we're in an El Nino neutral condition right now okay so we flip back and forth between La Niña and El Nino or if we're not in that that condition we're in a neutral position what do we like better El Nino or La Niña we would like better La Niña okay so so but you could see at the very bottom there's 60% chance of an El Nino in the northern hemisphere by fall 2018 increasing the 70% chance by winter of 2018 and 2019 so and this all relates to it relates to tropical cyclone activity to the hurricanes we're talking about so so we're about there's a 70% chance we're about to go into an El Nino by winter and when that happens this extreme weather will become more extreme more extreme right yeah so let's continue on okay with the story you're gonna give me a lot of concern here this okay well I'm just trying to explain everything so here is what El Nino looks like under normal conditions there's normal trade winds and there you could see off the equator and off South America their trade winds are moving the warm water to the west okay but during an El Nino the trade winds weaken and then the warm water along the equator does not move to the west but collects and collects along South America and and the northern part of South America by the way this is the breeding ground for all the tropical cyclones they all come from that off South America yeah a lot of them form there and then they travel to the west right to us to us right so that's the significance of this so we have the next slide okay so this is data from the National Weather Service from 1970 to 2017 and you could see the red years are El Nino the blue years are El Nino and the yellow is neutral and you could see that the greatest number of tropical cyclones is during El Nino years okay so in 82 we had Eva and that was it during an El Nino in 1992 we had a Niki that was during El Nino in 2015 we had what was called a super El Nino and the probably the strongest El Nino they ever had with the greatest number of tropical cyclones we've ever had okay so the unfortunately we're very fortunate that they all managed to miss us we were lucky yes but that doesn't last forever I'm even on a random basis what's the difference between a cyclone and a hurricane okay it's it's just terminology a tropical cyclone includes a hurricane a tropical storm and a tropical depression tropical cyclone means forming over the tropics you know zero to 22 degrees latitude and cyclonic circular circular circular action okay but can we go back to that slide again yeah okay so 2017 we had a super El Nino and you can see there are 16 tropical cyclones they think that that part may that may have been related to climate change and the warmer you know it's it's not there's no consensus but a lot of scientists think that it may be you mean El Nino or the number of storms did not see how strong that El the number well the El Nino they called it a super El Nino in 2015 it was it was stronger than so that's climate change made it into a super El Nino mate they some people think that bigger than any other and then it related and then and then it led to those 16 tropical cyclones okay and then in 2017 you see it's yellow so we're going in a neutral in 2018 we're in blue which is La Nina but we're about to go into neutral again and then we're about to go into an El Nino again 20 to 2019 yeah El Nino and that's why I'm saying these cycle these cycles are going to continue into the future there's going to be and if it's related to climate climate change and warming some of these El Ninos maybe get you know out of fuel and gas or you know it's worse they're going to be worse so people got to prepare for this type of constant activity where where Hector is coming by and then Lane and then Olivia and you know it's it's it's the new normal yeah it's it people got to realize that there is actual risk out there and they can't always count on these things missing us let me just pin one thing down Dennis it's no question that the exacerbation of this weather is due to climate change right well it's hard to say because I mean there's so many scientists see definitely sea surface temperatures are warmer so because there's always a question does climate change lead to greater frequency and magnitude of storms most intuitively you would say yes because the sea surface temperatures are warmer but a lot of scientists also say well when there's climate change there's more wind shear right remember wind shear is what to our lane apart so there's just so many factors involved but you know you got to take a look at the data itself too and that may be telling you that that there's a good likelihood that it could be happening there's no consensus but a lot of people think it is okay we talked about complacency yeah we're talking about the complacency of people in a highly populated area like Oahu do you have more slides let's do that okay let's just go over next slide okay so this was the 2015 year during the Super Al Nino and again 15 or 16 tropical cyclones in the Pacific and John Bravinder he was on your show with myself last week and when when people asked him is there any way to explain all these systems missing us yeah his answer was luck there's no reason these systems have missed us there's no physical reason why these systems have missed all of missed us so and next year our luck may turn yeah so I mean it's really we got a people got to be on their toes and prepare what does that mean we only have a minute left what does that mean okay so they need to prepare properly so that they don't get hurricane fatigue you know for instance don't return your supplies your supplies you bought for Olivia keep them mark them with a sharpie with expiration dates use them for your 2019 hurricane season if you're always going out to buy things and then returning them you're going to get hurricane fatigue you know everything you do should be could should consider both the short term and the long term what you're doing and you do the same thing for your water you don't need to buy cases of water buy plastic containers disposable plastic containers or or you know that are always on hand okay so this is all a ramp up it's all a training it's all a preparation time for us to deal with the season maybe 2019 in which we're not so lucky and if we're lucky in 2019 well there's always the years after that with more El Nino and more climate change right more extreme weather so you have to come back and tell us about I really appreciate you're coming in today Dennis sir this is kind of education it's so important people have to understand what's going on not only in the short term not only this afternoon but in the long term right we have a new normal a new way of life actually in the world yes thank you so much for coming down Dennis good to be here Jay thanks next time soon yeah


Bitcoin bulls and bears are currently at war. The last two weeks price action has little to do with Bitcoin's technicals and a lot more to do with the events that are out of our control, unfortunately. Last week it was about the CPI numbers that sent the market in a frenzy. And this week it's been all about the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine. This of course has brought a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt into the markets. So much so that even gold has moved up for the first time since 2020's pandemic run.  He says gold is the future and that the last 10 years are irrelevant. Sure, Peter, whatever you say, buddy. I'm sure Wayne Huizinga and Blockbuster said the same thing about Netflix. Anyways, in today's video, we will be taking a look at the Bitcoin charts and looking for some supports in the event that an invasion actually happens over in Russia with Ukraine and of course looking for some resistances in the event that they come to a peaceful resolution. So yeah, guys, we're basically flipping a coin to see what happens this weekend. Oh, so starting at the monthly timeframe, you can see not much has really changed here. We've kind of lost this support right here, but we're still in the green and we still have the ability. We still have about two weeks left in the month to still get above it and close above it. So not too much has changed here. Let's drop down to the weekly on the weekly chart. You can see where we kind of currently are right here. This is basically the middle of nowhere. Although we do have the support here at $40,000, the next main support here if we continue dropping is down here. That's basically down around the $37,000 area. You could also see that we've bounced before here at that 40K range. So that's currently where we're sitting. And now there's really no way to know what's going to happen next because right now the price action is based off of what happens with Russia and Ukraine. So because of that, technicals here really don't matter too much. So if over the weekend things go bad, there's an invasion, then we can expect prices to drop maybe down to 38 and the bottom of it I would say would be this Fibonacci level right here. If it went really, really bad, then we can start considering a break of that support there, which is the same support that held us up last time and possibly falling back down to this support. Now the thing with this support, this is at $30,000 level. If we look at where the majority of the buy orders are right now, you will see that there's really no huge buy walls until about $30,000. And $30,000 is exactly where this next Fibonacci level is sitting at if we were to lose this. So there's a lot of people looking and waiting to buy down here at $30,000. If in worst case scenario, there was a really big drop like that, that's where I would expect the bottom. But again, that's really far off and we'd have to reevaluate once we got to that point. Right now we're more focused on the present, which is at $40,000 level. And the next support levels, which is going to be sitting around 38 and 36. Now, if we do get a peaceful resolution, we should expect prices to bounce back to the upside. In that scenario, I'm expecting Bitcoin to come right back up here, which is right around that $44,000 to $45,000 area, and possibly continue the falling wedge breakout that we started on a couple weeks ago. Remember, we had this falling wedge pattern right here where we broke out to the upside. Last time we had this happen, we went all the way up and set up new all-time highs. Of course, it didn't happen without a pullback first, but also at that time, we didn't have a possible war about to happen. So I definitely believe if we didn't have this war happening, Bitcoin would have been already through $45,000, probably closer to $50,000 at this point. But unfortunately, that's not how it works. And because of the things going on right now, it's of course suppressing the prices of not just Bitcoin, but of the overall market. And let's not forget, guys, inflation is still here. There's still the Fed raising rates, which I think have been priced in already. But just a lot of things going on that's affecting the prices right now. So for those of you who are looking to trade the possible drop or rise in Bitcoin, let's go ahead and look over some trade setups. But before I show you guys these trade setups, make sure to smash that subscribe button. If you guys want to make money through trading, crypto passive income, NFTs, or maybe you just want to stay up to date with the latest money making trends in crypto, I upload a video almost every single day about these topics. So please smash that subscribe button so that you never miss another opportunity to make money in crypto.  So if you guys have any questions, feel free to DM me or leave it in the comments. By the way, guys, I have a free Discord channel for the community that you can join with like-minded individuals to talk about crypto, trading, passive income, and NFTs. The link is in the description below. All right, guys, so taking a look here at the daily timeframe, you can see that things look ugly. So right now, there's really two levels that I'm watching that I'm going to possibly play, but it just depends on so many things, right? So the first level in the event that we get a peaceful resolution, I'm looking to enter back above 42,000. So above 42,000 will be a break back above this trend line. And of course, it's a break above 42,000, which has been a big level. You can see what happened last time we broke above it here. So that's the only level that I'm looking to play for the long entries. So now in the event that we get bad news and that an invasion actually happens, there's two ways to play it. The first level is 40,000, the low 40,000. As you guys can see, we've already gone as low as 39,400. But the bulls are trying to protect that level.  So that is a level that you can play, but you have to play it with an aggressive trail stop. You have to take profits quickly because it's going to continue just this up and down, up and down within that same level. But the trend is looking like it's going to keep pushing down unless we get some type of good news. So 40,000 is definitely a level that I like to enter a short trade at. As long as it continues to respect this trend, as long as there's no peaceful resolution, I think that something like this could most definitely happen here. Just a slow grind down and at any point, the bottom could fall off and just drop all the way down to that 38 to $36,000 levels. So now these are all very high risk. I would say that the entry above 42,000 is less risky. You could probably risk around two to 3% on that entry, but on the $40,000 entry because there's just so much going on, it's very high risk. You have to be careful with that entry. Maybe set up a stop loss around the high right here. So that's around 40,500. So maybe above that, you want to get out of the trade. And basically you'd be looking to write this down as far as possible. On that one, I'd still be looking to risk 1% or even less. Now, if you guys want to know exactly what trades I'm taking, what levels I'm looking at in real time, every single day you need to get into my mentorship training program. In this group, I share every single trade that I take with my complete training plan. Entries, stop loss, take profit, all of it. I teach you how to trade the right way, how to use leverage, how to trade with the right position size, using the right amount of risk so that you never have to worry about blowing up your account again. In addition to that, I also post crypto passive income opportunities, NFT projects, and much, much more. Now, there are limited spots to get into this program because so many people want to get in, but I could only work with so many at once. So if you guys are interested, go to the link in the description below. I'm telling you guys, crypto is a once in a generation opportunity to make money and the opportunities that we have right now will not last forever. So please, if you guys are interested, sign up in the link in the description. If not, watch the next two videos that I'm about to put up on the screen because they're the videos that YouTube thinks that you should watch next. Thank you guys so much for watching. I'll see you on the next one. As always, peace and love.