The next item of business is members' business debate on motion 15855 in the name of Christine Graham on men's sheds. The debate will be concluded without any questions being put. Would those members who wish to speak in the debate please press your request to speak buttons and I call on Christine Graham to open the debate for around seven minutes. Thank you very much, Presiding Officer. Let me thank all who signed my motion and are taking part in the debate, and those who are now coming into the gallery attending from men's sheds across my constituency and other parts of the boarders, such as Peebles, Gallashields, Lauder-Hoyke and I-Mouth. In fact, the boarders have 10 per cent of all men's sheds in Scotland and 19 per cent of Scotland's members. It may seem because of this explosion of men's sheds that it is a new phenomenon, but it is no such thing. In fact, the first recorded men's shed was in Tongala, Victoria, Australia in 1998 and the first in Scotland in Westhill, Aberdeenshire in 2013. According to the very helpful Scottish Men's Shed Association website in Scotland, there are 106 open sheds, 58 in development with 1,612 members, though even as I speak, that may have been surpassed. While I am on the topic of the websites, it is a great place to go if you are interested in joining or even starting one. That information I put on the record for our colleague Ken Hughes, our current Deputy Chief Executive, who is retiring today. He may want to look at the website for something to do with his time. There is a map of existing sheds in Scotland that tells you how to start from the moment that the idea takes root in your head through publicising locally and gathering support, setting up a steering group, developing a constitution, to registering as a charity, to how you successfully access funding through what is called a dragon's den attitude, the so-called so-what tests, for example, so what if it is better than sitting in the pub of an afternoon drinking, so what if it is better than couch potatoing, I made up that word, in front of the afternoon telly and so on? Generalising, we know that men perhaps are not so good at sharing their worries and concerns with others. Not everyone plays golf or is a member of a club, so the sheds have given men and women, for example pupils, does not bar women, but mostly men, a place to gather, make, chat, have a laugh, make plans for the shed—all good for body and soul. The wife or partner might be glad of a wee break from them, too. There are problems, of course, with money, not membership, but most of all in my experience with premises. I know both in Lodder, which temporarily has a room in the Lodder leisure centre, not really a permanent solution, should begin their activities there in the next fortnight. Peaboles, the former ex-servicement club they have just secured, and Hoik has secured a former mill at a peppercorn rent. Let's face it, in most of our rural towns and villages, there unfortunately will be plenty empty premises that are going. It takes time and effort, but I think that this is the making of a men's shed. The fight for facilities and funding pulls the men together from the start. It's theirs, of their making and their shaping. Of course, there is no one-size-fits-all, no breed-to-derman format. It's up to the members, and that's exactly how it should be. Those members have diverse skills as a retired accountant and a retired joiner. They're both equally useful. What they do is up to them. For instance, Gallamen shed has made 60 feeders for red squirrels and furniture repairs for the Aberlour Trust. The benefits to the members and the appetite for sheds is reflected in the numbers. The Shed and its relative infancy already has 78 members. The benefits to health and wellbeing, to remaining active and mind and body cannot be overstated. Good for individuals, good for the public purse. The name shed is so appropriate. My late father, with five children, caralled in a small council house, took refuge and sanctuary in a small green wooden shed at the bottom of the garden. There, he kept all his tools, and that's where he made our sleds and bootcases, which I believe to this day are indestructible. They weren't very functional, but they were indestructible. More importantly, it was his shed. With the door open, he would sit admiring the growing vegetables with the Sunday papers and his cup of tea. He always had to read them for the rest of us. Rain or shine, taking a moment away from the hurly burly of those five children indoors. My late mother was happy to leave him to it. Domestic friction was reduced. When I think of men's sheds, though populated with many men, they have much in common with that little green shed at the bottom of the garden. In some ways, they are a place of sanctuary to make things but also to chat and sit idly and perhaps share concerns, and perhaps they too reduce the potential for domestic friction. I'm just saying. On that note, to lay any rumours that, as a single woman of a certain age, I am fleguenting men's shed with romantic intent. Can I ensure the gentleman in the gallery and beyond that? My interest is purely professional. Thank you, Ms Graham. Can I say to the public gallery, much as you want to hiss, boo or clap, please don't, we prefer it if you don't show appreciation or otherwise. Can I say to everyone here that we have a shedload of people who want to speak? Therefore, I'm going to have to be very strict with the timings no more than four minutes in Rachel Hamilton, followed by Jenny Gilruth. I'm delighted to have the opportunity to speak in today's debate and thank Christine Graham for bringing it forward. Welcome all those people in the gallery with us today and some of whom are familiar faces to me. Men's Sheds have been a real success story right across Scotland. From humble beginnings with only five back in 2013 to over 170 today, they've become a buzzing centre for craftsmanship, camaraderie and community cohesiveness. Not only are they all self-funding but they also carry out tasks within the local community such as building flower boxes and bird boxes, refurbishing old furniture and making garden furniture. I was outside the men's shed in coldstream on Monday. It wasn't open but I was looking in the window at the lovely things that they're making and I had my eye on. However, I want to share with you, if I may, a little bit about my constituency of Ettrick, Robsburgh and Berwickshire on the men's sheds and the tremendous success story that they have become. I recently visited the men's shed in Hoik, which was absolutely fantastic and welcoming all sorts of people. That is the main point about the men's sheds. They're so welcoming and offering that friendship in a way. However, as Christine Graham has said, 10 per cent of Scottish members in the Scottish boarders are in men's sheds and there are 10 men's sheds across the boarders, from Jebre and the west to EyeMouth in the east. The Scottish Borders Council has recently appointed a sheds development officer and David Parker and Councillor John Greenwell were instrumental in securing funding from the Scottish Borders Council to help the men's sheds to get off the ground. The wonderful thing about those sheds is the positive change that they bring to older members of our society. Every shed is different in its make-up but they all have the same aim to eradicate social isolation amongst men mainly and give a purpose to life. I speak a lot about social isolation here in the chamber and it's a pressing issue in rural Scotland, especially amongst older people and it's fast becoming the biggest challenge facing older generations. The men's shed does go some way to alleviate that. According to Age Scotland, 94 per cent of members have made good friends through the shed movement in rural areas with the decline in rural pubs and the lack of meeting places. Men's sheds are fast becoming the main hub for socialising in some of our towns and villages. We've heard a lot in the media over the last couple of years about social prescribing and the impact that it can have on mental and physical health. I really hope that the NHS will see the opportunity, particularly for the positive impact that men's sheds have on mental health. Men's sheds, as Christine said, are not just about men, however. At Jedbra's men's shed, they've opened up the shed to the wider community, including women. As I understand, there is a ladies' day once a week and I've yet to attend, but I look forward to going. I hope to see those numbers continue to grow. Moreover, there is an opportunity for adults with learning difficulties and physical disabilities, too. As some have come along with carers and helped with current projects or have brought fresh ideas and started new projects, the achievement to date is phenomenal. The growth rate is amazing and we should be so proud of what those gentlemen and others across Scotland are achieving. I hope that they will continue to grow and inspire the younger generations to carry on the good work that they have started. Jenny Gilruth, followed by Ian Gray. Can I begin by congratulating my colleague Christine Grahame on securing today's important members' debate on men's sheds? In July of last year, I had the privilege of cutting the ribbon at the official opening of Glynothys Men's Shed. It was one of those strangely warm nights that we had last summer and right in the middle of the World Cup, as I recall, where over 40 to 70 folk from different communities across the town gathered to mark the occasion. Glynothys Men's Shed is on the site of an old scout hall, and the absolute transformation that has taken place there is simply remarkable. Advanced higher art pupils from a community high school helped to design the murals on the exterior shed walls with the help of local artist Donna Forrester, so July's event was a real community experience. As Shed member John McElroy told me at the time, the purpose of Glynothys Men's Shed is to be accessible primarily, but not exclusively to men—18 or over—providing a safe, friendly environment where they are able to socialise and work on meaningful hobbies and projects at their own pace in their own time. Christine Grahame's motion today makes specific mention of Men's Shed's ability to improve mental health. Yesterday, with colleagues from across the chamber, I attended training provided by Sam H on suicide prevention. Suicide remains the biggest killer for men in Scotland aged 34 to 44. We know that there are lots of reasons why that is the case, but I think that Men's Shed has a crucial role to play in tackling social isolation and loneliness. Men's Shed has grown in popularity in recent years because of the opportunity that it affords, particularly for the older generation, although not exclusively, to socialise in a safe environment and to have a sense of purpose. Earlier this week, I was delighted to visit the other shed in my constituency in Kenneway, but I am not daft enough to refer to it today, as I mentioned, as at least half of the attendees on Tuesday were women. In Kenneway, the shed is a community shed. It is also quite unique because it has the largest branch membership than any other shed in the country. Given that Kenneway's shed population is just over 4,500, I hope that all members will agree that that is a pretty impressive feat for a small town in Fife. I sat with a group of ladies who were involved in craft work in Cross Stitch, and I am sure that they will not mind me telling the chamber that it was their view that the women did all the work at Kenneway's shed. The gender divide alive and well in Kenneway. Despite that, they laughed and told me about the camaraderie of the shed and how it offered them the opportunity to learn new skills. One took me to task about a certain Nicola Sturgeon, and when I reminded her that Nicola Sturgeon was, in fact, my boss, she simply replied, yes, I know that. Humphrey is one of the star attendees at the shed in Kenneway. He has been coming since his wife passed away last year. Someone in the church recommended it to him, and now every week he turns up on a Tuesday and on a Friday to tend to his jigsaws. Every week the team at the shed carefully lifts Humphrey's jigsaw up and they store it away safely so that he can continue where he left off. He is provided with a hot water bottle to keep him warm, and as he sits making his progress with his jigsaws, the great and the good of the shed arrive to discuss the issues of the day with Humphrey. Simply put, Humphrey is the leader of Kenneway community's shed, and it was an honour to meet him this week. Kenneway's shed struck me, however, as more than simply bricks and mortar. It is the favour that is done for someone who needs their blinds taken down and someone who will pay it forward the next week with some home baking. It is the shed being a little bit noisy with the woodwork area, so some of the volunteers working together to put up a new wall. There is a really strong community bond throughout Kenneway's shed where everyone, irrespective of age and gender, has something to contribute to the greater good. I asked Bob McPhail, the founder of Kenneway's shed, what he thought made it work, and he told me that every shed is unique in its own way. Ours is mixed, and some are just men only. Together, we are making a huge difference to people's lives and to make them feel part of something. Some pass on the skills that they have, others will just come for a chat and a cuppa and try to set the world to rights. Setting the world to rights is exactly what I did on Tuesday with the help of some of Bob's members. Although we did not quite sort out Brexit or agree on independence, it was a privilege to be in their company and to experience the inclusive community that they have helped to create in Kenneway. Iain Gray, followed by Bruce Crawford. Thank you very much, and let me add my congratulations to Christine Graham for bringing forward this important debate. It is important. The men's shed movement, I suppose, is a little tongue-in-cheek, and perhaps it should be because it did start in Australia, as Christine Graham pointed out, where irreverence and irreverence about masculinity is pretty common. However, it also plays to those stereotypes of sheds and man caves to which those, like Christine Graham's father, find somewhere to retreat from family life. Of course, the men's shed movement is the opposite of those things. Firstly, it is very serious in its intent and its purpose, but it is also quite the opposite about retreating. It is not about retreating at all but about coming out into the world. Loneliness is, as a number of speakers have said, one of the biggest problems that men in particular face. We know how toxic loneliness can be. It is considered by the health authorities to be the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day in terms of the damage that it does to your health. It is a serious issue that men's sheds deal with by creating a network of friends for those who participate, but by connecting them again with their communities, because all the men's sheds do work with their communities. We have certainly seen the strength of that in the men's shed movement in East Lothian. Indeed, all of our towns in East Lothian have men's sheds at different stages of development. Musselborough has one, Dumbard does, Trinain, North Berwick, and Preston Pans, the men's shed, is becoming a part of the lighthouse community hub. A very successful community development in that town. In Haddington, the shed has been doing some really useful work producing various things—furniture for the middle park school for children with additional support needs. I thank the member for taking intervention. Can I ask him on the question of all those centres that you are talking about opening up throughout East Lothian? What efforts are the men's sheds taking to encourage armed forces veterans to join men's sheds in the East Lothian area? That was more as quarry. I will answer that to a degree by turning now to the doy ends of the men's shed movement in East Lothian. Those are the MacMerry men's shed. David Dixon and his redoubtable shredders in MacMerry claimed to be the second men's shed in Scotland, and it would be very foolish to try and argue with them. They have 60 members, 35 of whom are active, and indeed a good many are veterans. That is a group that the men's shed has reached out to. It started five years ago, just four men. Lesley Kidd, the founder of the movement in East Lothian, with nothing. They now have everything, including a power tool workshop. They make all sorts of things, including the nameplate for my house on my garden gate. Although I have to say that I have been told since the last time that I was at MacMerry men's shed, somebody has donated a pool table to them and I believe that productivity has taken a very significant dive in terms of production. You do not have to take my word for this, because MacMerry men's shed, with Age Scotland, made a tremendous short film telling their story and why the men's shed is so important to them. You can find that on YouTube or I'll link to it on my own Facebook page. I just want to finish by saying that we are all here to praise the men's shed movement, but we need to say gently to the minister too that this movement does need support. It has had support from Age Scotland in East Lothian, strived the local third sector organisation support it too. Government could do more to support this movement. The minister is the exception that proves the rule, but Government ministers are usually considered to be middle-aged men in suits. They should understand that they will soon become old gets in cargo shorts and they will need a men's shed to go to. They should support this movement. I do not think that there is anything to segue from that, but can we have Bruce Crawford? I've got my cargo shorts and I'm certainly an old git. I would just say to the members of the men's shed from the Borders, from experience, if Christine Grahame has come on your way, please run or get on your bike as fast as you can. It's true that, for most people, what they need is a sense of purpose in their lives, a sense of belonging. Whether that's achieved through their family, their work, supporting the local football team, volunteering, taking part in sports themselves or even political activism, it all matters to them. It's that sense of purpose that can often fuel us to get us through the day and it carries us on. However, we all know as we get into retirement years and I'm probably getting into the... By the way, I'm not retiring in no chance. We're all getting a bit older. I might get thrown out, but I'm not retiring. It can often be a difficult phase if people's lives, a pair of hands and a mind that we'll once use productively are now looking for their next purpose. That change of direction can sometimes take a serious toll on the mental wellbeing of people, not to mention, of course, potentially a serious impact on relationships in the household. I want to share a very short story about a man of no. It's a man of no age who'd gone through this transition from working life to retirement. Like many people in these circumstances, he found it incredibly difficult to come to terms with no longer having the routine of a working day. I guess you could say, as others have said already in this debate, his purpose was lost. It was having a serious impact on this man. Mentally, he was coming more and more depressed within himself and at home he barely spoke to his wife. His mind was in that dangerous cycle of just existing in the world and no more. Then luck would have it. He fell ill and went into hospital. Why is that luck? He might ask that question in those circumstances well. In that short time in hospital, he was able to meet with other men on the ward of his own age. They had a good blither together. He was able to play cards with them and other games. By the time he was discharged, frankly, he didn't want to leave. The impact of having that company in hospital had a profound impact on his overall wellbeing. When he got home, he was a happier man. His relationship with his wife greatly improved. The spark was re-ignited. Knowing that, what had lifted his spirits, he then went and signed up to his local men's shed. Here, this particular man spends his time with other men and other women, mostly around his age, where they use the materials and tools to put their hands and their minds to productive use. He now has that renewed sense of belonging, a regained sense of purpose. I'm not going to tell this story because it's what the men's shed at their core and its movement is all about—a way for men to find a sense of purpose with other men and other women in the same situation. We have talked a lot in this place about mental health and how best to tackle mental health problems. The men's shed movement offers at least some of the answers to how we can tackle the causes of ill health, particularly for men and women of retirement age. Earlier this year, I was honoured to officially open the men's shed in Stirling, and I'd like to thank our Mark O'Mann co-tip maher for the fantastic work that he has done in establishing the men's shed in Stirling. In fact, because of my great age, I'm now proud to say that I am a member of the men's shed in Stirling and have been for a number of weeks. I'm just preparing for the time when I'm 80 or 90 and I decide to slow down. Situated in the creative hub in King Street, Stirling's men's shed is a brilliant space for socialising, for building, fixing and creating—not just the objects, but the people too. For its members, it's installed the sense of purpose and belonging, and I hope that this brilliant organisation can reach out and have the same impact and many more men in the future. I also congratulate Christine Grahame for bringing forward this debate this afternoon. Men's Sheds is vital in creating the socially connected society that we want and need. Men's Sheds are places of sheds or otherwise where members can meet and pursue practical interests, such as woodwork, refiner skills, play pool or simply put the world to right. While largely based in a shed or other building, they are places where people can go out and meet with other men and women. Men's Sheds are whatever members want them to be, and I think that that, in essence, is the success on them. It's not a top-down model, but it is very much a model of people deciding in their community what would help them and what would benefit them, because loneliness does not discriminate on economic barriers or even age barriers. We are told recently that more than 100,000 people in Scotland who are older are suffering from loneliness right now. That can be because of retirement, a change in medical or physical health for an individual. One men's group that I was talking to in Edinburgh when they were getting going could not find many men to come. What they went was to their wives and to the partners of the men to encourage them to send the men to go out. I think that there is still, within our society, a difficulty for men, particularly perhaps older men, to be able to talk and discuss about the bereavement or about loneliness or about other issues that we wouldn't want to discuss within the family. That is where the importance of men's sheds really needs to be stressed. They provide community more than that. They provide meaningful community and real friendship. Age concern produced a report in May 2017, in which they surveyed members for multiple men's sheds across Scotland. Overwhelmingly, they found that what the men valued was having banter, fellow shedders and people that they could simply spend an afternoon or an evening with. They valued the individual rather than the activity because they felt needed and loved. An example of a local shed here within Lovian is Mayfield men's shed, which we meet on a Tuesday and Friday morning. The shed is just one of many that we have fortunately here within Edinburgh and Lovians. Activities include refurbishing community benches to make and selling wooden chairs. They have been able to sell what they have made, again, adding further value to their work. Indeed, many shedders describe having a new lease of life because of their local shed helping them to embrace and enjoy the stage of their life. I encourage every one of us to look into men's sheds, whether for yourself or someone you know. They are a fantastic way of connecting with others in the community and may, for some, be a lifeline to keep them going as the years progress. Before I call Emma Harper in view of the number of members who still wish to speak in today's debate, I am content to accept a motion under rule 8143 to extend the debate by up to 30 minutes. I would ask Christine Grahame to move such a motion. Are members in agreement? No members having disagreed. I therefore extend the debate under rule 8143. I call Emma Harper to be followed by Mark McDonald. I am pleased to have the opportunity to speak in this debate to raise awareness of the work and value of men's sheds. I congratulate my colleague Christine Grahame on securing the debate, which she has aptly described what men's sheds are all about. I, too, welcome the shedders to the gallery this afternoon. Men's sheds respond to men's need for camaraderie and provide opportunities to work together in a way that contributes meaning to their lives. They are endless benefits to those who attend from health to education. The Scottish Men's Shed Association says on their excellent website that they will strive to lobby MSPs, councillors and Scottish councils, to support our Scottish Men's Shed movement, both financially, in kind and in policy making. It is the funding that I am going to focus on today. The grass-roots community empowerment men's shed model is a new way of supporting the desired Scottish Government's national outcomes and the community empowerment and engagement asset transfer bill. I agree with them that the men's sheds are one of the best ways for Scottish councils to save money and allow buildings to be transferred to the community to be used as men's sheds. The Scottish Government has recognised the Scottish Men's Sheds efforts and, in September 2016, allocated start-up funding. In addition to the funding from Scottish Government, men's sheds have found a wide variety of potential funds. Age Scotland's small development grants can be used for men's sheds. They have up to 15 grants of £1,000 each to award to men's sheds in Scotland. The big bike revival in Scotland will give organisations the tools to engage with the community and the funding to repair old bikes. They are looking for 100 organisations across Scotland to run a range of bike revival events with grants of up to £1,000. Tesco bags of help has already funded 780 projects in Scotland, sharing over £4 million between them. They fund a huge variety of projects that bring benefits to the community. The Royal Voluntary Service, with funding from Asda Foundation, has been able to give out grants worth over £84,000 to 100 sheds over the past three years. Big Lottery Fund Scotland has a range of funding programmes that can support men's sheds type activity. The main fund that the advice men's sheds apply to is awards for all Scotland. That can provide funding between £500 and up to £10,000 for up to 12 months. The men's shed movement is a growing phenomenon and it is fantastic to see the work that everybody is doing. In my south Scotland region across Dumfries and Galloway, it has seen the men's sheds grow steadily since the Dolbeaty men's shed was first opened its doors back in 2011. There are now six men's sheds across the local authority area and I am pleased to hear that there are plans in place to develop more over the years to come. Dolbeaty's men's shed was named the best in the UK at the UK Men's Sheds Association Shed of the Year 2017 awards. Last summer, Sir Billy Connolly popped into the Dolbeaty men's shed when he was filming a new TV project. He was very interested in the Skeuch utility car replica that Dolbeaty men's shed is building. The Rins men's shed at Stony Kirk and the Glen Kens men's shed in Balmuclellan are two sheds that I will be visiting in the near future. I was happy to speak at the Dumfries men's shed at Noble Hill for its open day last summer. Good health is based on many factors, including feeling good about yourself, being productive and valuable to your community, connecting with friends and maintaining an active body and an active mind. Becoming a member of a men's shed gives a man and new women as well that safe and busy environment without pressure. In conclusion, I encourage men across the country to attend men's sheds because of the education that they can receive on health matters, the friendship that they can build and, most importantly, to contribute to their positive mental health. Mark McDonald followed by Liam McArthur. I congratulate Christine Grahame on securing this debate and opening the debate in her usual inimitable style. I have two men's sheds in my constituency, and I want to say a little bit about each of them because their stories are somewhat different in terms of the progress that they have each made. Following the election in 2016, after going home and dropping my kids off at school, I went straight to Dice community centre, where Dice men's shed were formally opening their workshop, which had been granted a sole use of a room within the community centre to develop. When they first formed in July 2014, they were initially allocated two rooms for their initial membership of between eight and 10 local men for social activities such as darts, pool and board games, but those rooms were shared with other groups at different times of the day. Following discussions with the local authority, they were allocated the sole use of one room in which they have established a workshop mainly for woodwork. Davey Walker, the secretary of Dice men's shed, advises me that their membership has now grown to approximately 30 from Dice in the Surrending Communities, meeting three mornings a week, with usually between 18 to 20 individuals attending on at least two of those three mornings. Their activities have expanded, and they now include indoor bowls and also a musical group. Those who partake in the workshop activities, while generally making items for their own use, have occasionally made outdoor play equipment for local children's nurseries and also planters for the local shops in the community. The men's shed in Dice is also about giving back to the community and being involved in the community efforts in the community of Dice. The strap line of the men's shed is making friends, and Davey advises that the friendship that is formed among the members is most evident, particularly among those who have lost their partners. The point has been made about the impact of retirement, loss of partners and isolation and loneliness that can impact on men and how men's sheds act as an antidote to that. Bridge of Dawn men's shed is the other men's shed in my constituency. It began two years ago, but they currently do not have premises. They have around 30 members, but they are struggling to offer activities on a regular basis as a consequence of their lack of premises. They have been gifted a storage unit by Jim Wright of Secure-A-Store, a business in Buxburn in my constituency, but they are currently trying to secure £2,000 in order to move that unit and are seeking planning permission for it to be based behind the Alec Collies Sports Centre in Bridge of Dawn. They advised me that they have had a difficult journey to get things moving, and it could take up to four years to get the shed up and running properly. One of the members on their board is a local general practitioner who believes that there ought to be consideration given to how NHS funds could perhaps support and fund the work of men's sheds. I think that there is a particular case perhaps for some of the additional finance that is being directed towards mental health to be considered in relation to men's sheds. A report that Age Scotland has highlighted in its briefing to us shows that for every £1 spent on men's sheds, there is around £9 of social return. I think that it cannot be underestimated the potential for men's sheds to be viewed as a form of social prescribing, which can help to encourage men to become more active or to remain active, tackle isolation and loneliness, and therefore bring greater benefits as a result of that. I hope that that is something that might be given greater consideration in terms of how finance is directed and supports the work that men's sheds do, but also in terms of how local general practitioners view men's sheds as an option when faced with individuals who may be suffering from loneliness, isolation or stress, as a means by which to address that rather than perhaps following the traditional medical model. Liam McArthur, followed by Elaine Smith. I congratulate Christine Grahame on securing the debate, and after her remarks suggest that the men's sheds in the Borders investigate securing CCTV cameras around their premises, if not checking the locks on their doors and windows. I also wish Ken Hughes well, as he takes up her encouragement to join the men's shed after his imminent retire later on this evening. Despite its growth in popularity and geographic reach over the years, that remains a largely unsung success story, one that we should be doing more to shout from the rooftops. Before offering some thoughts on the positive impact that Orkney's Men's Shed has had in my constituency under the stewardship of Morgan Harcass and an excellent committee, I am tempted to declare an interest on each and every occasion that I visited the Orkney Men's Shed in Finston. Indeed, when popping along to their stalls at various agricultural shows last summer, I seemed to have come away with a raffle prize. Unlike recent Euro lottery winners, my cumulative winnings are not yet life-changing, but they have helped to break a losing streak in local charity raffles going back many years. As for men's sheds themselves, it is no exaggeration to say that they have proved to be life-changing. Certainly, there is tangible evidence, including in Orkney, that they can help to improve the quality of life of shedders, whether through reducing the risk of loneliness and isolation as they ingrain Genegal Ruth and others identified or helping individuals to enjoy better mental health. That is borne out by Age Scotland's Survey of Shedders in 2017. The overwhelming majority of respondents pointed to the same benefits that they got from the men's shed—more active, made friends, gained a sense of achievement, feel more involved in the local community, learned new skills, all adding up to physical and mental health improvements. That is something that we should be making more of a song and dance about, but it is also something that demands greater recognition and greater value attached to it than seems to be the case at present. Scottish Men's Sheds Association, as Mark McDonnell reminded, has found that, for every £1 spent on the Whitehill men's shed in Aberdeenshire, there was a return of more than £9 in terms of health, social care and community learning outcomes. That cannot be atypical, yet we still hear of problems that men's sheds have, not least in securing premises. Orkney men's shed is fortunate in that it now has a permanent home in Finston, thanks to the general city of local fishermen and tar markets. However, that came only after lengthy and ultimately unsuccessful negotiations with the local council over another site. Since moving in in 2017, such has been the growth in membership and demand that Orkney men's shed is already having to look at extending its building. As well as creating much needed extra space, that would also allow for better disabled access. Unfortunately, local group will need to cover the full planning costs in addition to the cost of the work itself. That fund-raising pressure is relentless for a voluntary organisation like the men's shed. Thankfully, the Orkney public has responded with consistent generosity to appeals for their nations in funding. In return, the shedders have provided support to local schools, charity shops, guides and individuals in the community. However, as I said in Parliament last month and as Mark McDonald was rightly focusing on, there is a strong argument for looking at whether men's sheds should be able to bid in for health and wider social care funding. That is the approach that has been taken in Australia and it certainly seems to be meriting consideration here, too. Meanwhile, Orkney men's shed goes from strength to strength with a membership up to 140 and growing at a rate of three or four a month. Open two days a week, attendance at sessions averages around 35. It is making a real difference and there is ambition and appetite to do more. All men's sheds are different, but they share an ability to foster friendships and enhance wellbeing. As Andy Swain of Orkney men's shed put it, for many local shedders, the shed has improved their life and given them a sense of purpose. For that alone, I offer my thanks to the men's shed movement and wish all current and future shedders as well as the shed movement every success in the future. Elaine Smith, followed by David Torrance. Thank you, Presiding Officer, and I apologise to you and Liam McArthur for my pill alarm going off in the chamber. I would also like to thank Christine Grahame for lodging the motion and securing the debate today on this interesting subject. I do not know if Ken Hughes has already got his cargo shot spot, but I suppose we can ask him later on. That is just how I will do. Men's Sheds, of course, have only been in Scotland for a relatively short time, but they are already playing an important role in the lives of men and communities around the countries that we have heard from members today. Like others, I want to take the opportunity to commend the work of men's sheds in the area that I represent. No two men's sheds are the same, and in Grangemouth there are both a men's and hen's group who meet at different times in the Jupiter Urban Wildlife Centre. They are part of an on-going wood recycling project than making planters, bird boxes, stools, spice racks and many more items out of recycled pallet wood. In Coatbridge, the men's shed club was formed about six months ago, with members meeting twice a week since then, to play dominoes and to do woodwork gardening or just simply to socialise. I was saddened to hear the news recently that the Coatbridge men's shed club's premises were destroyed in a fire. Although emergency services believed that the fire was accidental, the loss has been devastating for the members. Local member Jim Gallacher in the advertiser newspaper said that there are eight pensioners who found refuge in the men's shed that is now being destroyed. If we do not keep meeting every week, the club will fall apart and members will just go back to staring at four walls in their homes every day. I very much hope that a suitable temporary meeting place can be found and wish them luck in re-establishing the premises that they had. When men's sheds first began to be formed in Australia in the 90s, there were a number of issues identified around men's health that were not being addressed, and those issues are common among men in many western countries. One of the key societal issues identified—and it has been mentioned already today—is that many of all ages were not encouraged to discuss their feelings and their wellbeing. It was a point particularly made by Iain Gray and Jeremy Balfour. For a lot of men particularly older and retired, men had a serious and detrimental effect on their physical and mental health. In the case of mental health, men have been affected by a cultural expectation that they will not discuss their feelings or have consideration for their wellbeing, as Jenny Gilruth has already mentioned. Countless men's life has undoubtedly been lost to this macho-style interpretation of how men should or shouldn't act. I commend the positive role that men's sheds have played in addressing this issue. The positive effects of the sheds are becoming even ever more well known. To go back to Australia, in 2007, a survey was carried out among members of the men's sheds. 99.5 per cent said that they felt better about themselves. 97 per cent said that they had a place that they felt they belonged. 79 per cent felt that they got access to men's health information. We see similar percentages in the Age of Scotland briefing at home that we received. I think that it was interesting to note from that briefing that, for every pound spent in a men's shed, more than £9 has been found to be returned in terms of health, social care and community learning outcomes, which adds to Iain Gray's point about more government support being needed. I hope that men's sheds continue to grow all around the country so that more men in Scotland can benefit from improvements in health and wellbeing for years to come and in closing, Presiding Officer. Once again, I congratulate Christine Grahame on securing this debate. I thank Christine Grahame for securing this debate and allowing myself the opportunity to talk about the positive impact of men's sheds on the health and wellbeing of our members in general and especially in the Fife community. Men's sheds are community spaces for members to connect, converse and create. Men's sheds are open to all aged 18 and up, however, the majority of shredders are pensioners. That is incredibly important, as one in five of the UK population is an older man aged over 65 years. According to the National Institute for Health and Research, men's mortality rates are higher in women's and the loneliness and social isolation are highly common in this group, which are associated with poorer health outcomes. Older men also find it more difficult than women to make friends later in life and are less likely to join community-based social groups. Men's sheds are helping to tackle mental health issues and social isolation amongst men and elderly population by granting members a chance to spend time outside their house, meeting with local members of the community and socialising with people who have similar interests. Moreover, men's sheds help to boost the confidence in self-image of participants by engaging shredders in meaningful and productive work that gives them a sense of accomplishment, which each and every craft they produce. Age Scotland reports that 84 per cent of shredders have gained a sense of achievement as a result of a project that they have been involved in in their shed. It is obvious that the shed plays a vital and valued role in the lives of its members. Fife is probably a home to multiple men's sheds, including the Kennewy community shed, which was announced in 2018 as the largest men's shed in all of Scotland. Furthermore, my constituency is home to Cercodian district's men's shed. At the shed's beginning, I had the pleasure of helping founders and getting the shed set up and running and inquiring the necessary funds. The past Monday, I had the opportunity to visit a shed where I met with some of the members who showed me equality of detailed wood pieces, paintings and other works that they have produced. I got to witness first-hand the positive impact of the shed on my community through their conversations with those men and women. It is with much sadness that I announced that just last week that Cercodian district men's shed was a victim to a robbery in which its equipment, tools and electric generators were stolen. Currently, shredders do not have heat nor equipment or electricity needed to craft their masterpieces. Now more or never, a shred needs the support of a community, especially a business community, in helping them to build itself up once again and in place the items that were stolen. The impact of men's shed reaches far beyond what was the help to the rest of the community by promoting hospitality, citizenship and civil engagement and creating a more unified and engaged society. In conclusion, men's sheds are not only workshops when members are able to work on projects, crafts or repairs, but they are also active community hubs in which members can showcase their handiwork, teach an old skill to a fellow shredder or learn a new one, socialise with old friends or meet new ones, gain confidence and boost their self-esteem and improve both physical and mental health. For raised reasons, it is no wonder that 93 per cent of shredders report failing at home in their local shreds. Men's sheds are homes built on the foundation of camaraderie and compassion supported by a network of community and painted with the promise that members will live healthier and happier and more connected lives. The last of the open debate contributions is from Finlay Carson. I thank Christine Grahame for bringing this debate to the chamber this afternoon. I welcome the opportunity to speak on this topic because I am very much a supporter of the expansion and creation of men's shed across the country. In my constituency of Galloway and Western Friest, there are men's sheds operating in Dolbeaty, Balmuclellan and Stonykerk. As others have mentioned, men's sheds are hugely beneficial to the communities that we represent in a number of ways. For example, we have heard tackling social isolation, and it is difficult anywhere in the country. However, there are additional barriers to overcoming rural communities in which people can often feel and find it a struggle to integrate into social situations simply because there are not the resources to deliver activities that suit their needs. However, having paid a visit to the award-winning men's shed in Dolbeaty last year and the shadow to go again this Easter, I have seen the hugely positive role that men's sheds can play in creating friendships and providing men with activities with great benefits in working on projects with an identifiable goal. That goal might be to learn a new skill or to put existing skills to create something new or to indeed pass those skills on to others. It is important that those communities organisations know that their contribution to society is very much welcomed and that support will be there for them. I welcome that the Scottish Government has provided £75,000 to the Scottish Men's Shed Association to provide practical support and guidance to existing and new sheds with health and safety and organisational issues. I know that this debate is large about celebrating men's sheds. However, having listened closely to local organisations and in Dolbeaty in recent weeks, it is not fair to say that among some shedders there have been concerns about the potential for the SMSA to overly influence the future direction of men's sheds. We must never forget the reason why we have so many and why they work so well. At the moment, that is because they are self-sufficient and they are completely run by the shedders themselves and their unique bespoke projects focusing on the priorities in their local communities. A few weeks ago in the chamber, I raised these concerns with Christina McKelvie and I hope that she remains committed to working closely with MSPs like myself who have a shared interest in promoting and encouraging new men's sheds. I welcome her positive response to my questions. As Christine Grahame has said, the last thing that the men's shed operations need is a one-size-fits-all approach, bound by red tape. Although I have no doubt that they are all well intended, shedders do not potentially need potentially restrictive good practice obligations from the Scottish Government or from anywhere else to secure funding and support, whether that is from the Government or from other funding bodies. Although there is a recognition that support should be given to individual sheds to help with policies such as insurance, health and safety, and virus and so on, they should not have to operate to a standard blueprint that is based on another man's shed in a completely different part of Scotland. I welcome the three-year project that the big lottery has funded to Galloway, Caledonian University, looking into the developmental challenges of men's sheds in Scotland, as well as the health and wellbeing impacts of shared activities. However, it is still concerning that only six sheds across Scotland are being analysed out of the 170 that we have in operation, and the research appears only to be looking at the successful establishments of sheds and not at those who have unfortunately not been successful for whatever reason. We need to learn the lessons from those who have failed as part of ensuring that new projects will be successful and be aware of the mistakes that others have made. I hope that, over the course of the next three years, the project research will not just be limited to a mere six successful sheds. I would like to finish by stressing my thanks to the men's shed organisations across the country and giving them my full backing. However, I think that it is only right that we have an open and honest discussion about the future direction of the SMSA and to make sure that we all work together to address the concerns that have been raised. Organisations such as the Dobiti Men's Shed, while being self-sufficient, have now grown to more than 50 members, and we do not want to add additional red tape around funding that might stifle that growth. I am very much looking forward to my upcoming visit to them, and I know that they will take a keen interest in today's debate. Men's Sheds have come a long way since they started 14 years ago. Indeed, as we have already heard, the concept has travelled all across the world. I hope that we continue to build on their success, especially in rural communities, where they have provided a great social and wellbeing focus point for so many people. Aileen Campbell will respond to the debate for around seven minutes, please, cabinet secretary. It has been quite a debate with images of Iain Gray, Bruce Crawford, Ken Hughes in cargo shorts, fresh in our minds—maybe they should find a shed to hide in, maybe, for us all—and, of course, discussion about Christine Graham's love life. I do not think that I was quite prepared for all those topics this afternoon. More seriously, I would like to start by thanking Christine Graham for bringing in the Scottish Men's Sheds movement to the attention of this Parliament. Like many other members, I welcome the Borders Shedders to the gallery. It is important and right that we recognise the importance of the initiative, one that transcends health and wellbeing and provides many wider community benefits. Christine Graham is right to point out that the Men's Sheds are new, with the movement starting up in Australia way back to the 1980s. They were originally set up to advise and improve the overall health of men. Some have since expanded the remit to include anyone regardless of age or gender. Here in Scotland, Men's Sheds started to establish a little later, and by 2013 we had five pioneering sheds. Today, that number, though, is closer to 170—a massive jump in a short space of time—and in no small part down to the hard work and generosity of the sheds themselves, and also helped by the expert support provided by the Scottish Men's Sheds Association, who the Scottish Government worked closely with and fund. It has been lovely to hear about the growth of the movement from members, articulated through the wonderfully varied and diverse sheds in constituencies right across Scotland. That diversity was pointed out by Rachel Hamilton in her remarks. Kenneway in Fife, Aberdeenshire, Orkney, Dumfries and Galloway, Stirlingshire—all men's sheds, but all doing very different things and responding to their local communities. Although I am vexed to hear about the examples that have problems from Elaine Smith and David Torrance. Nonetheless, we know that men's sheds have proven positive effects on the physical and mental health of those who attend sheds, but they also benefit their wider communities in a whole range of different ways that we have heard about today, such as building buddy benches for primary schools, making planters for hospitals and providing educational classes in the sheds themselves to the wider community in operating tools or craft projects. However, men's sheds are not just workshops, they can also be a place to practice printing, try arts and crafts, play pool, cards, darts or simply just be a place to drop in for a copy and a blether. I am like others, I am a supporter of men's sheds myself and in December I visited the Mobile Men's Shed run by South Lanarkshire Council while it was in Kerluk. That innovative project saw the transformation of a council-operated vehicle—I think that it was a former library—into a Mobile Men's Shed, and it regularly visits communities across Lanarkshire. That not only brings the Med Sheds to the communities but also encourages and inspires local communities to start their own sheds. It is a great example of partnership working to support communities, and I thank Christine Calder and Paul Creehan at South Lanarkshire Council for getting behind that innovative project. Many members have also acknowledged that men can be at risk of social isolation and loneliness, particularly during key life transitions such as retirement or the loss of a partner. In our recently published Connected Scotland, National Strategy for Tackling Social Isolation and Building Stronger Social Connections, we recognised the important role of men's sheds where people typically older men but often younger men and women too meet regularly for company and camaraderie. Men's sheds are a really good example of community-led projects that help to foster relationships and contribute building resilient local communities. Their positive mental and physical health benefits are backed up by strong evidence, so we will continue to work with partners to develop this important health intervention nationally, including providing support to the Scottish Men's Sheds Association. In truth, while I am responding on behalf of the Scottish Government and while men's sheds technically falls within my portfolio, the truth is that many Government ministers could be standing here responding to this debate, such as the reach and the impact of men's sheds across many different portfolio areas. That is why it is important that we take the seriousness of what they do and, importantly, we take that seriousness of what they do and ensure that we recognise that. Again, that seriousness of what is done and delivered through men's sheds was a point made by Iain Gray. What evidence do we have here in Scotland to support the growth of men's sheds? Well, our own Scottish evidence base is growing rapidly and it corroborates that of the established international evidence on men's sheds. Men's sheds provide positive views of ageing in later life, and that is referenced in the shed effects study carried out by Age Scotland, which was funded by the Scottish Government. That report highlighted that 76 per cent of those surveyed agreed that their physical health improved as a result of being involved in the shed, and 79 per cent of those surveyed felt that their mental health improved as a result of shed involvement. Those benefits are felt in the wider community, too, with savings to our health and social care systems. As Mark McDonald pointed out, research carried out by the Scottish Men's Sheds Association in Westhill highlighted that, for every £1 spent in the Westhill men's shed, there was a return of £9.34 in terms of health and social care and community learning outcomes, a social return on investment that no one can ignore. We know that it is not only a case of supporting the growth of the movement and creating new sheds. We understand that, as sheds establish themselves, their needs can change and they need support with sustainability. The Scottish Government is working closely with the individual sheds on issues, including achieving sustainability, and I fed into the Sheds for Sustainable Development three-year project that Finlay Carson spoke about, which has been led by Dr Daniel Kelly of Glasgow Calais University. That important study explores the health and wellbeing impacts of shed activities on their users and will identify the key development challenges that are facing sheds, enabling the Scottish Government and our partners to remain ahead of those challenges and conform in how best to respond. I would like to underline that point again to Finlay Carson. None of this is about attempting to provide a blueprint about how men's sheds should operate, but what we want to do is to support the growth of men's sheds, recognising that their community led, that they are grass roots, that they are also very diverse. That is why we want to support it as best we can, but that is a sustainable issue. I will take one, please. I thank the minister for taking intervention. It is just to, would the minister acknowledge that there are different funding mechanisms in Scotland with Scottish Men's Shed compared to Ireland and even funding for UK Men's Sheds Association, which are all different? Aileen Campbell. Absolutly. The fact that the men's sheds reach into so many policy areas would provide them with an incredible opportunity to explore different funding streams. We provide that funding to the Scottish Men's Sheds Association of £75,000 of core funding, and we are the only Government in the world to provide that strategic national support in this way. We view our role in the support of men's sheds growth incredibly seriously indeed, but I take on board the points that have been made and made well around premises and finding premises. In fact, the men's shed in my constituency of bigger is currently looking for a home, and I know how challenging that has been for them, and that probably requires us to work out how we can provide much more support on those very practical issues that men's sheds are facing, so to the issues of that funding that has been made by others. To conclude, I think that we all agree that men's sheds are brilliant things, safe places in the heart of our communities throughout the whole of Scotland, from Shetland to the borders, bringing people together, enabling local people to support each other through friendship and trust. They are simple, but they are impactful, and they tackle serious issues that vex government and society, wellbeing, mental health and loneliness, to name a few. Getting behind the men's shed movement is in all of our interests, but it will not just be government alone. It will require a partnership approach, and I am grateful to the support that the Government receives from Age Scotland, the Men's Sheds Association and Glasgow, Caledonian University, to name a few. However, we can go further through, and I urge our local partners to get behind sheds, local authorities, the third sector, the NHS. That issue around social prescribing being particularly important, and community workers alike, so that we can all together play a role in developing and supporting this important initiative. With an ageing population, it is absolutely in all of our interests, because the simple project stands to help us to create the connected, resilient communities that help towards the betterment and the wellbeing of our country. Before I end, many people have mentioned Ken Hughes. I would like to offer my recognition for his role, not in cargo shorts. However, I recognise his contribution to the Parliament over the number of years and wish him well in retirement. I hope that he finds a good shed near him when he does retire this evening. Thank you to all the members. That concludes the debate. The meeting is suspended until half past two. If you wish to show your appreciation now, I am happy that you do that.


This is… this is something that people have been struggling with for ages because these are two different types. These are two different dimensions of one's existence. About these two dimensions are about doing something, making something happen and allowing something to happen to you. These are two different aspects. So now the question is, which is more, which is less? Can I do it all? Or there is nothing I can do, I have to just allow it. If you are capable of just allowing it, that would be very good for you.  People around you cannot understand what it means to allow. Doing is something that they understand, but doing is a limited possibility and doing is a very laborious process. It's like if I want to bake bread, how much of it do you do? How much of it do you allow? There is an equal proportion of both. If you do not need it hard enough, if you do not work to load the oven properly, if you do not set the right temperatures, which is all you are doing, it's not going to happen. But if you are not willing to allow that you're willing to close it and simply sit there like a pregnant woman, yes? If you do not know how to bake bread, it is all as complicated as bearing a child. Yes? You have to sit there and wait. If you are too much of a doer, you want to open every few moments and look at it, you will not have bread, you will have something else. This goes for baking bread, growing a plant, bringing up a child or bringing yourself up, which is… you're realizing is the hardest task, that if you want to bring yourself up, there's a certain amount of striving and doing on your part to be done. But without allowing, it will be an extraordinarily difficult process and incomplete process for a very long time to come. So both are needed. If both have entered your life at the same time, you must consider yourself to be an extremely fortunate human being. Whether you understand the fortune or not, because there are people who for lifetimes are just doing without grace being available to them. There are people who are just waiting for grace to happen, not doing anything because they do not know what to do, doing their own little things without doing the right kind of thing to become open to the process. So these two kind of people exist everywhere in the world. Some are waiting for gods to do things for them. Some are trying to do everything by themselves. You are an extremely fortunate human being.  So it is that dimension. It is this combination of these two that we are effectively delivering through Isha Yoga that people learn to do something about themselves. At the same time, people learn the humility of waiting, the devotion. Devotion is needed, otherwise one cannot wait. If you do not look up to something, you cannot wait. So to be able to do everything that's needed, having the necessary tools and the empowerment to do things about your life, at the same time having the necessary sense and grace to wait and be able to receive, both these things need to happen. So if the question is pushed a little further, the question could be, can't I do it myself? Or the next question could be, will you write a self-help book? Get yourself enlightened. This happened at a doctor's office. A woman came with her husband who was limping and in a bad shape. She brought him slowly. He was leaning heavily on her. She brought him slowly and made him sit down. The receptionist who was sitting there, being sympathetic to the situation, said to the woman who brought this man, arthritis with complications. The woman said, no, self-help with concrete blocks. So self-help books sometimes have done things for people, good things for people. A lot of times they only enjoyed themselves, broke things up, broke situations up in your life because self-help is not always the right thing. But is it something that you don't do? No, you must do. So a combination of both is best. If you push one too far, you may lose your grounding.  If you do try to do everything yourself, not allowing anything to be received, then it's like a plant which is trying to grow without sunlight. It will grow but pale. It will not produce any flower or fruit. It will be a long time before it can produce anything. So we need a combination of both. The kriyas, the practices are a phenomenal way to prepare the system, to be open to new possibilities. If your energies do not open up to new possibilities, then you're talking about a long drawn-out journey. To become open is the most important thing. So just believing that I am open and not doing anything about it is no good. There are lots of very open people. If you say one word, tomorrow they'll be gone. They believe they are very open. Even me, if I make as much as one comment about them, tomorrow they'll be gone. That open they are. So openness has to be tested with your commitment of time and effort. How open you are, you have to prove. Every day to yourself and to the existence, by every day putting in that much, I am this open, I am willing to give my this much of time and commitment, I am that open. So your sadhana is a tool for opening you up and also a test for your openness both ways. So these are inseparable. You cannot separate them. If you separate it, it is an unrealistic separation, which it does not work, largely does not work. There may be a devotee who does nothing, who just sits and receives it. But as I said, if you become all receptivity, it may be wonderful for you, but you won't know whether you're going forward or backward. That's one thing. Another thing is nobody would want to pee around you. That's another thing. It's already so.


Morning trainers, Patrick Munley here with your London session Tick Mill Chart hits. I want to draw your attention today to a developing opportunity on the introductory time frame for our time frame. We're looking at the Swiss Yen here. We appear to have made an ABC correction versus the decline from the 10th September into the 28th of September low. Overlaping correction back into resistance here. We're also at the symmetry swing resistance versus the scale and structure of the last leg higher, or corrective leg, sorry, and we've run into the 50% retracement as well. As such, we've got a bearish pin bar reversal. So I'm looking to enter short positions on a break of the current four-hour candle low, stop just above the high, targeting range sport down to 1.1374. As always, traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.


Cool, we're good. So that's the only side I have. So, right, so thank you for coming. We'll do it really quickly, just a quick introduction. Kevin, I'm working at a company called Cambridge Spark. We do trainings in data science for individuals and for companies on site. That was it. Now, the notebook. The link that you have here is available as well on the, can you all read? Yeah, it's available as well on the European page. So if you can't read it here, you can just copy paste it from there. So today we're going to talk about ensemble models. So first, quickly, why do we care about ensemble models? Well, they're really popular. They've been used a lot and they still use a lot in the industry. They provide pretty good performance and they're quite convenient in the sense that they don't require as much data as they're planning in general. So that can, they can be a good alternative. And in fact, they use a lot in machine learning competitions as well on Kaggle, for example. The goal of this talk is to try to build a bridge between the theory and the implementation of those models in Python. So it's going to be really much applied. Just quickly, the agenda, I'm going to start with an intuition of why ensemble models work. Then discuss the main building block of the ensemble, which usually we use a decision tree. Then talk about two techniques, bagging and booging and boosting. And finally, talk about other libraries that you can use that are a bit more advanced. Right, so quickly, first the definition of what do we mean by ensemble model. So it's simply combining multiple simple models that we will call weak learners into a larger one that will be our ensemble. There are two popular techniques that you can use, bagging and boosting. And we'll discuss both of them here. And we use, as a core building block, a weak learner, here it's going to be a decision tree and it's usually a decision tree. Right, so quickly, just some intuition. So let's say you want to know if you have a given disease that here I called A. You're going to see three doctors. All of them tell you that you have that disease. And let's say you have access to the file of past diagnosis and you know that you can calculate their accuracy on previous patients and they had like all of them had 75% accuracy. So the question here is, do you think that the probability of you having the disease given that all the doctors told you that you have it, is it higher than 75% or is it equal to 75%? In the notebook that you have on GitHub, they have actually simulating that scenario so you can play with it and run it if you're interested. Here, I really don't have time to do it. So I'm just going to tell you the answer. There is no much suspense here. It's actually higher. So by combining all those predictions together, we get a higher probability. The reason behind that really simply is because the probability of all those doctors to be wrong at the same time is, since they're more likely to be right than wrong, is going to be really low. So you get better accuracy by doing that. There are two main assumptions behind that for it to work. The first one, the models here, our doctors have to make predictions independently. If all the doctors will make the prediction the same way, then you would just have the same, the exact same thing by consulting three doctors than if you would just have one. Also, another assumption, either you need your model or your doctor here to have an accuracy higher than 50%, you need them to be more right than wrong. The reason behind that is that if you combine several diagnoses from people that are more wrong than right, you will end up just having something really wrong. So really quickly, introducing the data set that we're going to use here. So it's data from Facebook, different posts that were posted on pages. We have features such as the category of the page, the number of comments on the page, and so on and so forth. And the last column in the data set, so you can download the data set here at this link. The last column on the data set is the thing, the target, the thing we are trying to predict, is the number of comments that we will receive in the next hour. That's a regression. Here we want to stick to classification in order to stay with our analogy of the doctors that we've seen above. So we'll define the problem as will this post be commented on in the next hour or not? So basically, will we have zero comments or more than zero? So let's just load the data really quickly because we don't have that much time. I have 10 minutes left. All right. So we defined the features really quickly here. That's just what I said. If we have zero comments, if we have more than zero comments, we have true, otherwise false. So here, the data is quite balanced. So pretty much half of the data set has comments. The other half doesn't have any comments. And let's create a training set and a test data set. Right. So the first building block here is the decision tree. So quickly, why are we using decision tree to do to build our ensembles? Well, it matches with the two different conditions that we stated above. The first one is that we need to have 50% accuracy. Well, those decision trees are actually pretty good at capturing complex relationship, including nonlinear relationships in the data. So we have that checked. The second reason why we use decision trees because they overfit easily. Usually that's seen as a bad thing, but here it's good because that means we will, by perturbating a little bit, the data will be able to build decision trees that are quite different one from another. So let's start here by building a decision tree that has a depth of two. So really simple one. I'm going to fit it on my data and then plot it. So by the way, the function that I'm using to plot it is I've defined it myself. It's at the bottom of the notebook. So if you want to run it yourself, you need to run that first. But here you can see that really simple decision tree. I'm starting looking at the feature 30. I'm looking at whether it's smaller than 4.5. Then I continue that way, looking at another feature and so on until I reach the bottom where I'm saying that if a sample is here, then we predict it will have comments. Otherwise, no comment here has comments here. Something important to note here is this sample's value. It's actually the fraction of the data that is represented in that node. So at the first node at the top, we are looking at 100% of the data. Then it's split in two. 63% of the data will be on the left-hand side and the other one on the 37 remaining on the other side. It will become important in a minute. Just let's look at the accuracy, 81%. Right, so now we've built a really simple tree. We only have three rules. So surely our data is more complicated than that. So we'll try to build a more complex tree by increasing the depth. Here, we're going to use a depth of 10. So let's plot it. Here you see a really complex tree. Let's zoom a little bit. And you see that here we don't even see the whole tree because we can't plot the whole thing. But the important part here is the samples. You see that we have 0.4% for example in this node that is of the data that is represented. So surely that looks like we are overfitting a little bit. If we look at other ones, we see that, for instance, here we have 0.0% of the data in this node. So we are really overfitting to some particular example in our data. Surely that's not what we want. So with Scikit-learn, there is a parameter that we can use to control that. It's called mean sample splits. And what we're doing is passing exactly the minimum percentage that we need represented to create a new node. So here I've used a really large number, 20%, and we'll see how that looks. So it's creating another tree with a max depth of 10 still. So we can still model complex relationships. But we're not overfitting to really simple, to single examples. For example, here we have 30% of the data represented here. If we go down, we only have 30%. So we don't create a new rule here. We stop and we say that all those samples will have what we predict has comments here. And we say that if we have more data to back up our nodes, we actually keep dividing in two and go down and go down. And here we don't plot it because that would just be too much to visualize. But we're still going deeper. Right. So with this first building block, we are able to build our first ensemble, a random forest. So as you can see in this diagram, it's pretty similar to what we were talking about with the doctors. We will train, here we're training two different trees. The main difference is that in order to make those trees not correlated, we are not going to train them directly on the data. But we will introduce perturbation in data. So the first stage is the bootstrapping. We will sample from our data with replacement in order to create a new data set that has only a subset of the observation. And it will have some observations duplicated as well, meaning that here are sample one and our sample two are both statistically similar to the data, but they are different one from another. The second step that we're doing is the feature subsampling. So instead of providing all the features to our trees when we're training them, we will only take a sample of the features. So we will have some trees that will focus on some features and other trees hopefully that will focus on others. The last important thing to do when you're training a random forest is to make sure that your trees overfit a little bit. Because if you keep your trees really simple and had a really big constraint on it, for example, you will only create one node that will be the exact same one for all your sample data sets. So you're not going to be able to benefit from this advantage of ensemble models that we've seen before with different models. Right. So the three points are summarized here. Let's try to apply it with scikit-learn now. We'll start with five trees. So here, those are the main parameters to pass to the scikit-learn implementation of the random forest. The first row that you see here are the parameters that constrain our trees. So those are the same one as before. We choose a depth of 10, and we keep 20 percent for the main sample split. So as we've mentioned, it's not a good idea to do that. We'll see how it works in a minute. And estimator. So we are going to use five trees. Max features is the feature sub-sampling. Here, we're not doing it. We're not using it. And we're not doing the bootstrap either. So we're expecting that to be quite bad. Let's see if that happens. We'll calculate the accuracy, right? 81 percent. With scikit-learn, we can look at every single decision tree in our ensemble. So let's do that. Here, you see the list of all your decision trees within your ensemble. The nice thing is that since we can access every single tree, we can also access the accuracy of every single tree. So by iterating over all my estimators, I can predict on the test that I set and then calculate the accuracy. If I do that, I see here the accuracy of my five trees. As you can see, they all have the exact same accuracy. In fact, we've built five trees that are exactly the same ones. And when we end up assembling them, as we've seen before, we get the exact same accuracy as one single tree. So basically, by not using properly the parameters of my random forest, I've not gained anything by assembling. Right. So now we'll try to get a bit better by using the feature sub-sampling here. So by defining auto, it's just going to pick square roots of the number of features every time it's building a sample. And we're setting the bootstrap to be true as well. Here, for the moment, we are keeping the... Okay, I'm skipping this one. I'm just going to go to the right one. Okay. So this is the good one. So here, I'm doing everything right. I'm letting my trees overfitting by having a loser constraint on the minimum sample split. Only one person here. I'm also using more trees, 15. I'm using the feature sub-sampling, and I'm using the bootstrapping. So let's see how it does. 83%. That's a bit better. Let's look at every individual tree. And here, we see that we've managed to build... Oops, I don't want to do that. Here, we see that we managed to build trees that are different, one from another. We see that some of them will have a lower accuracy, some of them a higher one, and they compensate each other, which is what we wanted. Right. So I have five more minutes to talk about boosting. So boosting is different than random first, in a way that instead of building all the trees in parallel, here, we're going to build them sequentially. So we start from the data. We build our first tree. So that's the stage one here. And then we compute the residuals from it. So we check what is the difference between what we were supposed to predict and what we actually predicted. Then we build the second tree that is not trained on the original data, but on the residuals, meaning that this tree will learn how to predict what the other tree got wrong, meaning that if we subtract the second tree from the previous one, we will compensate the error. Obviously, this tree itself is not perfect, and it will make an error. It will get some error itself. So we compute again the residuals, train another tree on it, et cetera. So we can end up training a lot of trees. As you can anticipate, it will overfit really easily, because at some point, the error is going to be smaller and smaller, and we'll start building trees that instead of compensating the error, they will overfit to what is essentially noise. So it's quite important to make sure you tune properly the number of trees you're going to use here. And also, you don't want your first tree to overfit in this case, because if it already overfits, your second tree is only going to compensate for, to try to overfit to the error, to the noise. Right. Also here, we have access still to the bootstrapping, so it's called subsample for gradient boosting and the feature sampling in order to make sure that every subsequent tree that you're going to build will focus on something different in the data and try to correct in a different way, so we can benefit from the advantage of ensembles. Right. So let's do it again. Again, I've tried to put in the first row the parameters for the trees. Same ones that we used before. I'm using five trees here, using 80 percent of the data set for every new tree. I'm using feature subsampling, and the learning rate, which is the way we're correcting the error, is just the weight we will be using for every new tree correcting the error of the previous one. So if I have a large learning rate, only building one tree after the first one will correct a big amount of the error, so it will overfit really quickly with only a few trees, whereas if I keep the learning rates smaller, I will need to build more trees to be able to converge to the ideal solution, but yeah. Right, so where was I? Cool. So I think I'm going to skip, okay, so I will just show this one, and then I will skip that because I just have two minutes left. All right, so accuracy by default here, I've got 82 percent. Yeah, just one thing, here it doesn't make any sense to look at the individual accuracy of the trees, it's just because if you look at the tree at stage two, for example, it was never meant to be accurate on the original data. In fact, it has never seen the original data, it was only trained on the residual, so it only makes sense in the context of the previous tree, and the error that was the previous tree had. So the only thing we can do here is cut at one stage and look at how all the trees before that behave together. So for example, if I cut here, I can look at how the two first trees do without the third one. So let's do that with scikit-learn, we have access to the stage predict function that generates a prediction at every stage. We're able to iterate over that and calculate the accuracy score for all of those predictions. So if we look at it, we see that here we start with an accuracy of 54%, and then every new stage, every new tree that we're adding is improving the accuracy a little bit. So we go from 54 to 77, and so on and so forth. Here you can see it's always increasing, so you might wonder whether we should build more trees, and at what time we would stop seeing an improvement. So we're going to do just that and try to do the same thing but with more trees this time. So we're using 15 trees. I've also changed the learning rate, so it takes less trees to converge. And let's run that.  So I've got pretty much the same accuracy score here, but let's look at every stage to see how the error on the testing set changes. So here we see that it's improving with the first few trees, but after a while it just starts converging to 83%. And then it starts going down again 82, and it would probably go even lower after that as we are overfitting to some noise in the training set. So what that means is that we really need to make sure that we stop adding trees at one stage and get that number of trees right, and also the learning rate. So just really quickly to finish, here I'm using the scikit-learn implementation of gradient boosting. It's pretty good for demonstration purposes, but it has that issue that it can't run in parallel. So usually people in production will use other libraries that are more optimized for speed. So we have XGBoost, which is probably the most popular one, like GBM and Catboost, which are two more recent ones. The good thing with those libraries is that you can use them exactly the same way you would use the gradient boosting in scikit-learn. So you can import the classifier the exact same way, so I'm doing it here, and then you instantiate your classifier with the same parameters, you use .fit and .predict the exact same way. So you can keep the exact same pipeline, but just change the instance that you're using. So here I'm training XGBoost classifier, like GBM, and finally a Catboost one. Right, so that's it. You've got access to the notebook, if you want to play a bit with it and trying to replicate that. Yeah, that's it. Thank you very much. So officially the time is over, even for the question, so this is a bit of overtime we're taking, given the problems we had. There's a 10-minute break that, well now it's like seven minutes until the next session, which is the spring orientation. I mean, we have time for a couple of questions, so if anyone has a question. Thank you for the talk. You mentioned about the boosting tree that the trains are trained to correct the error of the first train, right? Yeah, but how did it work when you predict? Because you don't know the error when you predict of the first train, right? You don't know what's wrong? So when you predict the test data, you don't know the... Right, yeah, so you... The residuals are calculated on a training set, right? So you don't see, yeah, as you said, you don't see the test data set at this stage. You're calculating the difference, so the error on the training set that you have, and then you train your second tree on this data. Thanks, so could you recommend like any publicly available data set to play and start with random forests and the decision trees? Well, you can use this one. That's a good one. I think a lot of people start with the titanic one that is on Kaggle, for example. That's just... It's pretty good, because it has a mix of categorical data and numerical data, and it's a pretty simple problem to understand, so it might be a good one, but if you want the advantage of the data set I'm using here is that it has more data, it has more rows, so you might be able to get more benefit from libraries like SGBoost with this data, which are more complex models. We have time for one last question, if anyone... No, so thank you, Kevin.