The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. We'll start out here with the German Dax like we usually do. By the way, folks, we're going to have Jan Jamison on several times a week now for a while, putting him to work, and he's going to talk to us about 5G technology, Bitcoin, and some other things, but I have to get on my soapbox, folks. I heard on the news that the country and western group that I really like, Confederate Railroad, they canceled their venue, their presentation because of the name. I can't believe that. And then also there's a city, and I think it's Seattle, that they're complaining about the names of manhole covers. Well, when you look at a manhole cover, it doesn't say manhole, it says property of AT&T. Do not pick it up. It's very heavy, that kind of stuff. I don't know, we'll get to... I don't know what's happening. I spent a lot of time down in Vicksburg, Mississippi in the late 90s, late 80s, and early 90s with Jay Cross, and that is really amazing. Folks, Vicksburg sits on a big hill, and there was a... The battle of Vicksburg was fought, and the people at Vicksburg would be on the top of this hill watching the fighting between the red and the red, between the gray and the blue. It's really tremendous. And when they tear down these statues of people from these things, I mean, this is our history. I guess I'm just an old man. I'd better shut up and talk about the one thing I do know, and I'm not even sure I know much about that. And that's some of these charts. You can see the Dax is in a downtrend. Here's another one here that is in a downtrend. That is the footsie. And, of course, there's problems over in the U.K. now because of Iranians taking one of their tankers or something like that. There's always something going on. There's big trouble in Hong Kong, too, folks. My goodness, they're actually causing damage and physical harm to people. And let me tell you, folks, that China, they're not going to put up with that. They're awfully nice to let them do what they want to do on their own with capitalism, but if it gets any worse, I predict that they're going to put the hammer on them, but, you know, we'll have to wait and see. So one other thing I wanted to mention, at the University of Arizona here, I am a guest lecturer at the Stuart Udall School of Business. And we had a barbecue getting ready for the coming season. And I only speak two hours a whole semester or so, and it's fun. Anyway, I have to listen to these young people that have PhDs and all my guys, folks. I thought I was living in a different country yesterday. I mean, I'm in cowboy country, folks. I mean, this is as close to Redneck as you can get other than being in either Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, or, you know, I just couldn't believe it. I mean, my goodness, they did. Well, stop the music, Larry, move on to something else. We've got to do something else for today. Let's take a look here at what we think is happening in one of these markets that is very, very important, folks. Here is the gold market. This is a long-term weekly chart. Now, I'm going to run through these quickly because you see there's a big ABCD pattern. There's two of them coming in together at $14.55. That's where the market went to $14.55 or something. Folks, we dropped exactly $34 in the first correction. That took one day. We went from $55 down to $21, and so far our bounce back has only been up to about $29, so it's still a sort of a bearish. But there's a lot of numbers happening in the metals, folks. Let's take a look at the silver market. Now, this is a long-term chart on silver. It's a weekly chart. But you'll notice that the high that it made on last Friday was exactly 61% from the high in 2017 to the exact tick. If you did the ABCD structure, you'll see that was almost perfect, and not only that, but the open interest in the silver dropped to the last two days of the week when it was screaming up. That is not good bullish action. So just keep that one in mind. The next one we want to take a look at here is the XAU. This is the Gold Silver Index. And if you look at this, this is also a weekly chart. You'll see that the 61% retracement hit exactly on Friday, and it was a 61% retracement of the high in 2016. Once we get above that, it's clear sailing. But I believe, since we've been up like eight weeks in a row without a serious correction, we're most probably going to get a correction of some kind that tell us that, yes, this is a possibility that we're going to be looking at that. Now, the last one I would like to mention, of course, is the platinum, because that is the one that is... It's been the weaker of the group. It was the strongest, and now it's the weakest. Here again, we went up to that 18... excuse me, 865, and we hit that spot on, and we backed off a little bit. Anytime we take out those highs of last Friday, you have to be bullish gold and silver, because it's going to destroy those numbers. And, boy, when they're spot on like that, you really have to respect them, either on the upside or the downside. So I think something that's that important for you to deserve your attention, but the open interest is not looking good in silver. It really isn't, folks, so... unless some buyers start to come in here to put this thing up, we could look at something possibly to the downside. We've had a request to take a look at the Bitcoin. We've been watching this quite regularly, even though we don't trade it just from a technical standpoint. You can see the ABCD pattern down there at 9,200. We got up to about 11,000 again. Right now, it's still acting pretty good. We had a three-drive pattern there. If you look at it really closely, between the 11th and the 18th, there's a really nice three-drive pattern there that told us it was right near that same price of 9,200. It went to 9,000, so very, very close. But right now, it doesn't. Now, the one thing... John Jameson will be our guest, as I mentioned, and he'll talk to us about blockchain technology, and he really understands it. He writes for one of the largest sites, Altcoin Sidekick. He writes the articles for that kind of stuff, and he really understands it. Maybe I'll even... by osmosis, I might be able to understand some of this stuff. The Euro is still holding its own, folks. It's trying to keep above this 112 level, which is very, very important. You know, this morning, we're trading at 112.18. Last week, we got as high as 112.85, and then backed up. So that's another key thing to look at. Very, very important in the Euro. Another one that really needs our attention this week is the crude oil, because the crude oil is setting at roughly $56. We've been as low as $54.80, bounced a dollar and sum of barrel, which is nothing in the midst of basically an almost war attack on the U.K. by Iran, taking over one of their ships on the high seas. That's an act of war, folks. I don't know why they're still talking, because that's not that kind of stuff. The other one that really is important is the stock market, folks, because we had a pretty good break. We had a little bit of a bounce around this morning at the bank, but the transportation index is signaling there's something wrong, and I'll go into that when we come back from our break. We'll hope to have Kevin Murphy from Irmournometry Specialty at our break,<PHONE_NUMBER>. 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TFNN.com, educating investors. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, folks, we're back and I posted a chart of the VIX index going back over the last 10 years. You can see the last five years we've had virtually no volatility. We had that one in January of 18 where it was the biggest day ever and, of course, that was the bottom of the market and it reversed and been going up ever since, but my opinion has been from a long time is anytime you get that VIX down to 10, just buy it. I've been saying that for quite some time. We're trading around 14 or something right now, but I believe we're going to start to see volatility increase. No one thinks that can happen with zero interest rates, but I'm not sure about zero interest rate. That jury's still out, but just pay attention to this VIX index because it is quite, that's why it's volatile because it's the VIX index, but I don't trade it very often, but I try to keep a position in it just to try to get it moving. Here's one of the things I wanted to talk about a little bit about this transportation index. This was from, just one second, get this up here so we can talk about it. This is from CAS Information Systems. This is the freight index and as you can see the year over year percentage of the freight has been dropping since 2000, January of 2018. That means shipments are going down so they're not moving as much product. That doesn't mean the stock market can't go up because that's predicting something possibly in the future. That's one thing to look at. Another chart that was very interesting, I got this from Modell and Economics that I usually check their charts. This is the one from Lance Roberts and it's basically showing the economic prosperity over the last 45 years and you can see here since 2008 we've actually been drifting down. We haven't really had too much. That's with $33 trillion in bailouts and that's all we got. Now the stock market, now that's had one heck of a run. We've gone from $6,400 into Dow Jones all the way up to $27,400 in change so that's had one heck of a move but the rest of the economy parts of it anyway have not responded too much so that's a main thing to look at. One of the questions that someone posed during the break was about the crude oil. Folks, the fact that crude oil can only rally a dollar, a dollar, something, a barrel in the midst of an Iranian, or what they call, I guess there's little small ships, whatever they are, going after that big UK oil tanker, that's usually not the way it goes. Usually you get two or three, four dollars rallies in crude oil so that's not a bullish response. Another one that's happening is last night, early in the evening around three o'clock in the afternoon here at Tucson Time, I got a call from Rich Anderson and he was saying that his sources for weather and stuff have predicted a sharply higher open in all of the grains because of the hot weather that had happened and low and behold, when the grains opened, they opened sharply but not higher, they opened lower. So here again, you've got the news is looking really bullish and yet the market's not responding to it. That's why I always say trade what you see, not what you hear or believe. So that's, as a technician, that's what you have to do because unless you're reading every bit of fundamental information, you really don't know what's going on. Even when you read it, you don't know if it's going on or not. So that's the main thing. Folks, after that barbecue yesterday, I actually about halfway through, I just started laughing because it was so ridiculous. In fact, they were talking about negative interest rates and bonds and stuff. There must have been IQ-wise, there must have been, oh my gosh, a lot of really smart people there. All they said the government has to do is just print more money. That's all they really have to do. It doesn't make any difference. That might be true, but we'll see. Anyway, we'll see. Well, it's just hamburgers and hot dogs, a little get-together. It was a school of economics and a school of education. There was about, oh, 50 people there. It used to be really a lot of fun to have it at Peggy Hitchcock's house. That's Peggy Mellon. She's from the Mellon Bank. She was one of the big benefactors of the University of Arizona and happened to befriend me when I first moved here. We would have it out at her mansion. And it was always, but she passed away a long time ago. So they just have it at one of the other professors' houses near the university where the old mansions are in Arizona. The school started in 1865. It was when Tucson started in 1865. But the biggest city in Arizona in 1865, folks, was Tombstone because that's where all the mines and stuff were. With Wyatt Earp and Bat Masterson and the Clintons. Okay, let's move on to the currencies, folks. The Euro. We mentioned the importance of this 112 level in the Euro. Folks, this is really important. Look at this chart here on the Euro. You know, I'm a chartist, so take a look at it here. You can see here we're hugging this 112. We're trading at 112.18 right now. But if we break below this 112 level, it's going to set up another 100 pips lower down to 111. And that is going to be a key to key. Because look, you've got an ABCD pattern there. You've got a double bottom that was at 111.10 way back on the 24th of March, May. So that's going to be a really key one to look at. Now we're 120 pips away, but watch that. Make sure you have your limit binders on. Because if it goes crashing through there, I mean, you know, these things can totally collapse. Then it means it's going to go down a great deal more. But that would be the spot where it's going to have really strong support. So that's my two cents worth. So I'm watching it. It's there. The little red boxes there in the middle there in January and March. That's a 1.618 expansion, a 1.27 expansion, a double bottom, an ABCD. Those are all the things that you like to see when you're looking at patterns. And you don't know what's going to happen, but at least you have a pretty good idea that this is where the wagons have been circled. Oh, I don't mean wagons about Indians. I don't mean that. I mean water wagons when the firemen are fighting a fire. I don't have anything to do with circling wagons about the Old West and stuff like that. I know that's something that hurt everybody's feelings here in the room. And I certainly don't want to do that. That's not a good thing to do. Being from southern Indiana, folks, I was never exposed to a whole lot outside of Indiana for my first 21 years. So as I traveled around the world now and see what's going on, folks, when I see what's happening in Hong Kong, I mean, it literally breaks my heart. I mean, Sarah and I are there a lot. And when I see this stuff is right out in front of where we hang out and stuff, it's really scary and they're fighting. And the people over there, that's the one thing they usually don't do, is they don't do it. They argue once in a while, of course, but the fighting, you just don't see that. You don't see any graffiti on the trains or buses or anything like that. And it's very clean. This is totally different. So things are changing. I don't know if they're for the good or not. Gee, you got me on the soapbox today. God bless Kevin Murphy. He'll surrender and give us a rescue mission from the old cowboy today. Tomorrow we're going to have Stan Harley on with a little bit of luck. He's going to be calling me back this morning to give me a verification. Wednesday we're going to have Rich Anderson. Thursday we're going to have Tim Bost, I believe. And Friday I'm going to try to get John Jameson to give you guys a little heads up on Bitcoin blockchains and G5. Larry Pezzimento has just started his brand new service Fibonacci 24-7 and he's already delivering content to his subscribers on a daily basis when the markets opened and even on weekends. Each Monday you'll receive Larry's written report that provides detailed commentary and a summary on the charts and videos that Larry sends out. And throughout the week when warranted, Larry will send out via charts or videos or both the key markets that he is watching during the day. This will be up to the date active trading information that will help you in your daily trading. In Larry's first week alone, he sent out 25 charts, 6 videos and a full report to his subscribers in just one week. 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Kevin, are you there? Yes, I'm here. Can you hear me? Ah, you're coming in perfectly just like you're sitting right next to me. Kevin, before we start, I would like to just review to the folks here what I remember about Bill Erman. I met him, oh gosh, I must have been more than 10 years. Yeah, 10, 12 years. It's more than 10 years. And I corresponded with him every day. He went into a pseudonym of John Balsam. Evidently, he didn't want the people to know that he was Bill Erman so I chatted with him and his wife was still alive at the time and I was really interested in his work because of the relation to geometry and Fibonacci and sacred geometry and all of that stuff and I introduced him to one of my very dear friends and trading buddies over in the UK and he corresponded with him and when John's wife got sick he was running into some medical problems and my friend cut him a check for $25,000. No questions asked and it was really a big help to him and stuff but he put, folks I'm telling you this just to give you a review of what Bill was all about but he started to write a book and he sold the book before he finished it and that upset some people and I think it had some really great information and you're carrying the torch which I think is really great but you mentioned last week when we had you on for that short period of time that you were going to go into the money management part and Kevin, that is where you should be my friend because the rest of it, the education part you might get a little bit out of it but you'll never get very much your money will come from making money for people based on what you're seeing so I urge you to move in that direction because education even though it's important doesn't pay the bills very much so make sure you focus on that so that's my two cents for that. Well thanks for that I've been in that business before I mean I've been a portfolio manager so okay go ahead I'm sorry go ahead. That's basically really what I wanted to tell the folks but I worked with him daily for just all the time and you know some of his calls were great and then he talked about this balance point that I was very important to me that balance point was very important because he was saying that his forecast was saying that what he was looking for was wrong and it was most probably going to go up into the next cycle and almost every time it actually did that so you know that's what I thought was so really great about it so I think it's important that we keep who in the heck is calling me must be one of the Federal Reserve members Kevin I posted the first chart here yeah they call me all the time for advice you know anyway along with the Queen of England if you'll take a look at that first chart which is the reverse point wave the ABCD expanding triangle can you tell me I had more questions about that okay you're going into you're in chart 3 okay I didn't yes chart 3 and then what we'll do is go ahead go ahead I'm just going to call this a megaphone pattern because it just looks like an expanding megaphone Elliott waivers call it an expanding triangle yeah ABCDE each wave gets progressively longer and there are clear three step patterns in Elliott waves so basically the work I've been doing says we just finished point D D is in dog last week and we're starting now in the wave E sequence which is unfolding about another 12 months from now to a low sometime next summer in the 2020 and then from there you start another sequence bull market to come so basically the work and the previous chart chart 2 also corroborates that with the longer term balance point saying last week was a high of significance in the Dow and S&P and basically now we're rolling over and starting a new wave E down which should last a number of months and have a I guess the large rally you see in the middle there sometime during the middle of that point and my guess is that's going to come into the into the winter of 2019 some time in December to see another high followed by another sequence down into the summer 2020 so that's kind of what that chart says in terms of timing but it's it's called a megaphone pattern as you see okay one of the questions that we're getting from the Tiger Den here is do you remember any of the books that Bill Ehrman referred to or that he read quite often do you remember any of the books that are a material that he used to source material I don't remember once he spoke of I do have I do have one here he says he left me all his work basically one of the divine proportion by H.E. Huntley H-U-N-T-M-E-Y it's like 30 years old and it was a book that he had that I hadn't seen before that I've got and he may have gotten some of his geometry from that book by looking at it but other than that no I don't know of any that he referred to okay I had that same problem when I was working with William Barrett's widow for torque analysis guy and all of she donated all the books to the university of Hawaii and they were all stolen because he had some really rare books there about that type of information but that's that's neither here nor there okay let's what would you like would you like to go to chart five now and talk about that we can go to chart five and I don't I presume I guess your listeners are familiar with charts one two because we spoke about them last week so we can go back to them if necessary but let's go to chart five which I sent you I think over the weekend yes which is very interesting because it has something to do with balance points in the high that we just I believe we saw last week if you look at this chart it's basically showing the Dow back to the mid 1990s and the peak in 2000 along with the S&P those peaks were 48 days apart and basically this has a lot to do with balance points because in the low of 2002 and 2003 there those two lows comprised the balance point and then the highs in 2007 those highs were separated by 14 days that also comprised the balance point and the same thing happened at the bottom in 2009 those lows were separated by 70 days and when I say days I mean market trading days I don't mean calendar days I mean market trading days that's how Bill did everything by a market trading day count so what this shows is that from the Dow high back in the year 2000 at the peak of the internet bubble to the lows back in 2002 and three was a total of 738 market trading days from that high to that balance point low then if you take that number and multiply it by three it takes you from the S&P high that year in 2000 to the lows in 2008 and 2009 that exact balance point between the November low in 2008 and the March low in 2009 so those two moves were related by three to one or one to three using the balance point concept and this is a good example of how balance points work because a lot of times you'll get an initial move like it did from the 2000 high in the Dow but the subsequent projection will come from the other side of the balance point which in that case was the S&P high in 2000 so that's how balance points work you get projections from one and initial projections from one side and you get the following projection from the other side so that's the way the market plays and play tricks on you yeah we're going to take a commercial we'll have you right back Kevin Murphy study your we will be right back folks if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for ten years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of 1550 per year or 6,200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you 3,500 per year or 14,000 over the four years what should you prefer? 6,200 or 14,000 of interest on your investment. 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We're talking with Kevin Murphy out of Nashville, Tennessee a study of Erminometry. Kevin, we have a question. Is there an actual definition of a balance point that Bill worked off of? Well, it's typically I don't know if there's a definition but basically two different market indices need to make a high or a low around the same time. And I say around the same time in you know in parentheses because historically that's what it's been you've seen some balance points which can be I guess a couple years away like the ones that occurred in 1966 and 68 but typically they're very close in time like the ones that have in chart 5 like the Dow and S&P back in 2000 were 48 days apart the ones in 2002 and three were 104 days apart and the ones in 07 were 14 days apart so typically you just have one index like the Dow or S&P making a high on one day and then the other index if it's a Dow one time it'll be the S&P the next time making a high or a low on another particular day in the same time frame that's the difference where it can get more complicated is when you introduce another index like the NASDAQ but that can also be very useful then you have three indices which peak at different times or bottom at different times and those can develop more complex balance points but they are more valuable so again the definition is simply different indices peaking or bottoming at a different time you know typically in the same move when you're making a major high or low how about on December like on December on December 26th everything bottomed at the same time is that more powerful not necessarily more powerful but that's where you would not have a balance point when they all peak or bottom at the same time it's not necessarily more powerful the balance point simply means projections are going to be made from different points into the future it's a essentially complicated situation because you have highs and lows at different points so basically the market is telling you that at some time in the future projections are going to be made from those different points in time is basically what it's telling you and the hold the low we had in December they all came from the same point in time so that's a obviously simpler easier calculation so it definitely complicates or makes the situation more complex when you have multiple balance points but it also serves to clear up some of the some of what's going on like it does in chart 5 because in chart 5 now we have the balance point in 2007 at the 2007 highs if you take 738 and you multiply it by 4 you reach the high we had on the Dow on July 16 last week so that is the point of this chart is that the sequence of balance points basically projected the next high or the high on July 16 which in my opinion should be significant that makes really good sense but I hope you got the gist of the conversation that's good well the charts are very very helpful now if the folks want to take a look at some of the stuff that you have what is the best way for them to contact you they can email me at kwmurphy at bellsouth.net I think those are on these charts and I can send them these charts and any other ones I see of significance as well as any other you know I can send them some of the work that Bill Ehrman did that he left me which I have sent to most of his subscribers to my knowledge and send that information as well if they want to review it for themselves okay one other question next time you see something that you really would like to talk about please get in touch with me so we could have you on again the folks really they really enjoyed this so we're glad you were able to come back today we had more time but when you do have something please give me a jingle and we'll have you on because it's very esoteric it's the kind of stuff that I like to see and believe in a lot so please don't lose my number okay I would like to leave you with just one other thing the important chart in this entire sequence is chart number two because I don't know if you still have that or are able to show that to your subscribers we will pull it up yes we will pull it up so why is that one so important Kevin because what this chart shows you is that when you look at the longer term balance points because typically Bill only worked with data from like 2000 excuse me 1907 to the present but I was able to go back further and look at these longer term balance points and see that the market is actually related in much longer time spans using this concept of the balance point so the point I'm trying to make is I don't think Bill was aware necessarily of the significance of these long term balance points because they appear to play into the long term structure of the market so we have a high here like in 2019 there should be another one in 2023 and that ties into lows that were made back into in the late 1800s so that's on a very long term basis these things appear to be much more significant than he may have thought originally well that's really great I want to make in chart 2 if that makes any sense it certainly does well I want to thank you for joining us and please when you see something that you'd like to chat with us please give me a call we'll have you on again you certainly are carrying the torch and I really think you're going to do great no matter what direction you want to go but I certainly hope that you'll go in that direction of well you've already decided so anything I can do to help you my friend please let me know okay okay thanks Larry thanks for having me on my pleasure Kevin Murphy out of Nashville Tennessee who worked with Bill Ehrman for many years and I hope you enjoyed that type of presentation it's a little esoteric but it's all based on sacred geometry the numbers of the Fibonacci sequence and timing and price no astrology there's no astrology in there at all it's all related to things that are just related to those particular areas of sacred science okay now we have in a really strong market today with the NASDAQ leading the road up about 60 Dow Jones is up about 50 S&Ps up about 10 so we're having a pretty good snapback rally there should be some pretty strong resistance up around that 29 295 that's about eight handles from where we are right now and we're running into the 50% retracement in the NASDAQ as we speak so that's another one that will be interesting but we could easily have made a bottom there possibly on Friday and maybe we're going to go higher these markets surprise everyone but that big expanding triangle that we're looking at is very very important folks there's no question about it that you need to respect it because it does have a lot of things happening now the New York Stock Exchange Index is lagging a little bit today so maybe take a look at it Basil asked a question of what would negate his out if we make a new high Basil that would definitely negate that particular pattern that he's looked at because it's backed off enough to verify that that high of July 13th 16th was very important because we backed off at least 300 points so that's the way he looks at that we backed off 40 handles in the S&P a little more than 40 handles so that's what we're watching so that's the main thing that we're looking at it's a little esoteric but it's certainly exciting I worked with Bill Ehrman for a long time and I really I never could quite understand some of it what I do is quite simple I look at just ABCD and expansion contraction so<PHONE_NUMBER> I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best that they do in life it's the most common trait that we Tigers and Tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6 and 3 months Timer Digest also ranked me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is, markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too sign up today if you haven't checked out the newsletters page of TFNN.com what are you waiting for? all of the TFNN newsletters are informative up to date, affordable and it must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk free for 30 days all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page TFNN.com educating investors since 1984 Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns Basil's market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Okay we're back folks and we're going to take a look here at the US dollar index because that's you know inverse relationship to the dollar and as you can see here it would not take very much movement here to break it out to the upside right now you know it's sitting at this area right near ninety seven hundred above ninety seven fifty would certainly well ninety seven twenty five would be a breakout but this is a very bullish chart long term you notice in September January, March and June we've all had higher bottoms that's very very powerful all with that last ABCD completing down there at ninety five fifty so whether this will be related to the tariffs or any of this other stuff folks I'm not really sure but that's neither here nor there so we'll you know keep an eye on it to see whether that's going to be the that's going to be the case or not so that's one of the things that we're watching here today as we're watching this dollar index the stocks are starting to strengthen up we got the NASDAQ up about seventy now twelve points in the S&P watch the twelve to twenty nine ninety five folks that's the key level in that S&P if we get above that we could have one heck of a strong trending day which we've already started today but that could easily switch at any time this is a what I believe is a short covering rally for what we saw on Friday but it's still a little bit early I believe Treasury bonds are still quite bearish we're trading it around one fifty five oh four a lot of resistance at one fifty six in those September Treasury bonds so that's another one that you want to sort of watch so that's a one to keep on your on your watch list because the Treasury bonds should be able to look at that yes we've had a Mr. Zeese talking about Holy Moly the NASDAQ has moved eighty points since the opening and it's mainly is Microsoft, Apple, Facebook and Intel Intel's not so much because it's cap weighted and it's not not too much but Facebook, Apple and Microsoft really give it a boost that's what you're seeing as you see these indices go a whole lot higher where they end up today might be a little bit different for different things so that's needed here to take a look at the chart of Microsoft folks it doesn't look that good on the long term


sponsored by SAP HANA Cloud, the leader in platform as a service, with support from Console Inc, the cloud internet company. Now, here are your hosts, John Furrier and Peter Burris. Okay, welcome back everyone. We are here live in Orlando, Florida for SAP Sapphire Now. This is theCUBE's SiliconANGLE's flagship program. We go out to the events and extract the signal from the noise.  Thank you for the support. Our next guest is Mark Giel, who's the SVP at GM of SAP's platform partner ecosystem. Welcome to theCUBE. Thank you for having me. So we are so excited.  But it's also a more competitive advantage for SAP. And we were talking about that yesterday and today and we've had all the SIs on pretty much everyone here on theCUBE, all pointing to simplicity, run simply, that's the theme. How are you guys doing pulling this off? Because this is a game changer for you guys, not new, you guys have done ecosystems, you've got an ecosystem, but it seems to be transforming. What is the key dynamic for this ecosystem? I think it's timing. I mean, if you take a look at a lot of industry analysts, they're now talking about this two-pace IT, bimodal IT, as Gartner describes it. We have that agility layer. We have that ability to enable customers and partners to innovate very, very quickly and deliver incremental value to customers. So that is very attractive to our partners because they can now start to build new revenue streams. They can do this in a very profitable way and enables them to drive incremental value. So I think this timing of bimodal and the digital transformation that we're seeing in the marketplace provides an opportunity for partners to transform their business models and they're doing that with HANA Cloud Platform. SAP has historically been very focused on calling itself an applications company and try to avoid some of the platform nomenclature. But over the past couple of sat fires, we've started to see that switch. And now SAP is very strongly talking about the platform, a holistic thing where the application set is, I don't want to say being buried, but it's being embedded even deeper into operations. So is your job essentially to kind of catalog and bring that platform perspective, turn it into something that actually can be transferred with partner and get them up and running on the platform orientation and all the stacks associated with it so they can create value at the platform and to the platform? It's a really good observation. I actually think we have three business models. We have a platform business model, we have an application business model and we have a network business model. And those are somewhat different. If we are ostensibly an applications business, then we want the platform to have partners build into white space where we don't have the skills or the expertise or the resource to do it. So platform is really a way of augmenting our own capabilities and taking advantage of the innovation in the ecosystem. So the goal is to say, look, this digital transformation is happening. A lot of that means that you need to extend use cases, you need to rethink and redesign use cases. You want to do that from where all the data is, right? All the data sits within SAP's backend. It sits within 300,000 customers. It sits within two million suppliers on the network. So we provide, we have that access to the content and now the platform makes that content available to other businesses, ecosystem partners that can build incremental value. So it's really, it's something that I think was unexpected in many ways from partners that they can innovate with SAP. Historically, SAP was doing all the innovation. We're now enabling the partners to augment and do additional innovation and that's the real value. But in a disciplined and coherent way that doesn't cut off innovation out where the action actually is. Absolutely, we are an open platform. So if a partner wants to build something that is competitive to one of our applications, they can. They're not going to get much support in the market but they can do it, right? So we are very open in our approach but what we do is we provide insights to partners so they build the right app in the right way, right? We want them to strengthen our overall portfolio. We want them to identify a white space, right? And they will build into that white space. So that enables us to get broader coverage in the market. We can put a stronger solution in the market that drives more value for customers and it means that we can optimize and focus our R&D where it really matters, right? We can be very strategic in our R&D and build out where we have skills and competence and our partners then can augment that. So I got to ask you because the platforms are awesome. I mean, I love platforms. I mean, better to be a platform than a tool but also a tool could have platform like features in it using data, for instance, and thriving an ecosystem. Now standing out in the wild, they can get funded but they can't get critical mass. Certainly in the enterprise it's very difficult these days. It's getting worse now. It was easier seven years ago than it is now to be a startup or an emerging feature or tool in the enterprise, compliance, integration. So being an enabler is critical. So I love that. So I have two questions. What do you see as the disruptive enabler? So there's some disruption that's going to enable some opportunities to create innovation and then two, how are you measuring your business? What are your KPIs to check the scoreboard to see if you're successful? I think the fundamental disruptor is this digital transformation that we're seeing, right? Companies have to change their business models. If they don't, somebody else will. I mean, classic example, I don't know when you flew into Orlando but I've heard stories of people waiting three hours for a cab at Orlando Airport, right? Uber has disrupted not just the taxi industry but also the logistics industry. SAP Sapphire is disrupted. Well, that's true. That's true. Tsunami of people coming in. But that digital transformation is driving that opportunity, yeah? So when we look at how we should be working with our partners, we say, okay, look, where is there change? Where is transformation happening, right? It could be around the internet of things. It could be about the fact that a customer needs to understand their customer behavior better. It could be they want to profile those customers. So I think there's disruption everywhere. I think historically it was very difficult to leverage a platform or a technology to support that. In many ways it hindered, right? So I think many corporates, historically, their IT infrastructure reflected their business five years ago when they invested in it, right? Exactly. Today, it reflects their business needs tomorrow, right? So what's interesting? Cloud, compute, conversion infrastructure, all that stuff points to, under the hood, the engines are better, they're faster. Well, the beauty of Agile is that it allows you to create a deliverable now, but at the same time create options for what you're going to do in the future. Right, and as your business model changes, that can change with us, right? So you're always creating new options when you're doing this right. So there's a big land of opportunity out there out in the valley of innovation, which no doubt we agree, 100%. Now you guys are going to take advantage of all the new point releases, if you will, of new innovations. So the question, second question is, how are you going to measure yourself? What are the things that you want to see lighting up the scoreboard? And be specific, is it more downloads or more SDKs with Apple? Is it more insights? What's, how do you guys measure yourself in terms of, you know, benchmarking? We're doing good, we're doing great. How, what are the things? That's a really good question. That's a really good question. Ultimately, ultimately it's... Well more people are participating in the program, that's one, right? I mean, the ultimate goal is money the partners are making, right? The platform economics are about making, are basically about making money, right? So if our partners can't monetize that investment, that innovation that they're doing, then there's no value. So, you know, there are some high level KPIs that we track, you know, how many partners are building on HANA Cloud Platform? How many apps are out there? How many customers have adopted those apps? So those are the critical ones. Just inability of the partner. Is there any incentives? Are you guys offering any incentives for partners just to be able to, watching, since a lot of entrepreneurs will watch the show. What incentives is there any kind of onboarding? I know the fees are really low, 3,000 euros or roughly around there. Yeah. No, so I think what's interesting is that partners understand that they're going through their own transformation, right? So if I'm a systems integrator, I've historically made money by billing headcounts, yeah? They now want to build a repeatable revenue stream. The best way to do that is build IP, yeah? So what we're seeing is that they need to go down this journey. They're going in one direction to the clouds and then the other to building IP. And you need to do both of those. So what we're also doing is we're trying to educate partners in terms of look, this is the transformation you're going through as a partner and this is how we're going to help you on that journey. We'll help you in terms of building the right products in the right way, right? So we will identify the white space that they can build into. We will then help them launch that product. We will help them potentially even build pipeline for the product that they've built and then hopefully commercially- So basically you're incubating- So we're incubating ideas and we're incubating new business models, yeah. And facilitating resources to the customer. Yep, absolutely. Now one of the big challenges we have is customers don't always associate this agility and this innovation with SAP, right? We've got this rock-solid stable core. Now we're providing this agility layer and it's partners that are providing additional value. So how do we make sure that SAP plus the partner goes to the customer in a coherent and consistent way to demonstrate that business value and remove some of the complexity that we have of going to visit that customer and sell to that customer together? Well the key is going to be partnering with the developer and the partner because they're going to want to have trust because when they go to market they're going to want to have SAP standing next to them or behind them if you will, even if it's abstracted away. Absolutely, and one of the challenges we have, right? And I'm not sure people have always thought this through but we've just spent the last 20 years getting companies to rationalize the number of vendors that they're working with, right? The whole let's build a solution and take that solution to market one throat to check. We're now flipping that business model and saying, look, we've got this platform and we've got hundreds or thousands of partners innovating on the platform. Actually, you need to buy with all of them, right? That's going to take time, I think, for the CIOs and the procurement leads to understand, look, things have changed and I think we need to re-educate the customer. We also need to re-educate our field. The platform without any content is just an empty container, right? But there's good news here. Let me run this by you. There is some good news here and that is that it used to be that the real challenge was getting the process to work on the technology and the companies that the party to the deal between the customer and the seller was the technology company because they knew how the technology really worked and the seller had to protect themselves from a lot of opportunism, very complex contracting, one throat to choke because everything was, the contracting process was so complex. Now we're in a world where we're more focused on the business value that's created, the uncertainty of the processes, cloud platform makes the technology more certain so it leads to a wholly new set of relationships. We're not so much worried about long contracting, we're worried about turning the value on as fast as possible so it makes it possible to carry on more relationships but it's not so much as a procurement as it is a vendor management work. Do you agree with that? Is that kind of the way you're thinking about stuff? I think we're traveling that path, right? I don't think we're there today. I think we, you know, there is, as I mentioned, I think there's an education process because- It's new, how old is this baby?  So, you know, we need to drive that education. You know, we still get examples, right? Where we're going in, we're showing agile innovation, we're showing product, you know, you could have a product that you build that tries to understand consumer behavior for the Rio Olympics, right? The value of that product is in maybe the four weeks before the Olympics and one or two weeks after. You can't go into a 120-day procurement cycle, right, for something that's going to be of value for eight weeks, right, so that needs to change and I think we need to make sure that we have the right message with our partners to say, look, you know, you're not locking yourself in for 10 years and have to generate a 10-year return on investment. This is something that's driving value maybe for six, eight weeks or it could be for multiple years depending on how your business evolves. So, you know, it's horses for courses in many ways. How are the opportunistic? Yeah, horses for horses, love that. Dave Vellante's favorite line. Mark, final question. What's the plans?  Now we see a big uptick on a cloud platform. Certainly, the developers are attracted. Cloud Foundry is maturing. Things are kind of coming together.  What's going on this year? You guys doing road shows, any kind of promotional stuff? What should people expect to see? Are you guys going to be doing anything online? Any kind of e-learning platform? What's some of the activities you guys are looking at this year? So, I mean, we look at our product portfolio and we run webinars to basically explain to partners the opportunities, right? So it could be around internet of things. So we'll do a push around IoT in the second half. We continue to see good success and adoption around success factors, our cloud HR solution. So we will run some programs around that. And then S4. I mean, S4 now has been a key focus of Sapphire. I mean, it's an area where partners can add a lot of value, right? I mean, if you're rethinking a business process or reimagining a business model, you need that partner insight. So that's an area where we see a huge amount of value in our focusing. Could you take a minute or so just to kind of summarize the S4 impact for the folks who aren't here, aren't seeing it? What is S4 all about this year? What is the core message core? What is the core, what is the main point around S4? What's the hub of all about here for S4? It's the next generation ERP. It's the next generation business solution, right? It basically enables you to run real-time. It's cloud-ified. There are cloud options. I mean, we still have customers that are basically consuming it on-prem or running on-prem. But it's a big deal. It's a big deal because it enables these customers to take advantage of the digital transformation, to take advantage of data and process that data and basically turn that data into actionable insights. I'd say to operate the digital transformation. Maybe. I don't know about operating. I think it's a fundamental part of the digital transformation. Well, I'm not saying it's not, but the notion is as you go off and you do these transformations, it still has to work. Absolutely, and that's the key, right? Which is agility is great, but we're running critical business processes for customers, right? So they need to know that that process is going to work. It's rock solid. U.S.4 provides that rock solid capability and HANA Cloud Platform provides that agility layer to say you can differentiate and innovate, right? So I think, you know. It's a developer cloud. It's a developer cloud, really, right? I mean, I think it's more than that because it comes back to, I think, that the crux of the value of HANA Cloud Platform is its content access, right? We have 75%, 76% of global transactions touch an SAP system. We're making that business data available for new use cases. Yeah, it's going to be a flourishing environment. Really exciting. I think you guys are not getting the kind of credit and the press for this vision. I think it's something that's kind of nuanced, but, you know, when the money starts hitting the table, it becomes very clear, as you said, monetization isn't a great opportunity to reap the rewards of innovation. And certainly, that'll be at the scorecard. That'll give the scoreboard. Mark, thanks so much for sharing the insights here in theCUBE. Rich ecosystem on the horizon, continuing to grow and modernizing your operations. That's SAP's core message.  This is theCUBE. We're going fast and hard. Day two, got a full day tomorrow. Got a couple more interviews here today. You're watching theCUBE. We'll be right back. There'll be millions of people in the near future that want to be involved in their own personal well-being and wellness.


Thanks for inviting me and hopefully I will also then add some perspective in terms of shifting focus a little bit from the global developing world and to the richer part of the economies that are still under development of course and in this case Sweden and here the question is if we care about wealth then we would also want to care about what happens with wealth when it's passed on to others in and in this paper we look at one particular channel of this passing on namely the inheritance process so looking at many of the countries that we have that we are interested in and also looking at the work that Jim and Tony and co-authors have done we see that wealth is becoming increasingly unequal in most countries of the world and not at the global scale but for the country of interest now Sweden wealth has has become more unevenly distributed and this is one of the one one of the arguments for why we want to look at wealth and why why wealth may be then more and looking at the implications of why wealth has become more unequally distributed we have also looked at the role of inherited wealth in general inheritance as a source of wealth has become more important over the last decades this is both true for Sweden but as to my piggy tea has also shown look he has also looked at the France and some other countries where the flow of inheritance has become at the general level become more important and the question then we pushed in this paper how does this matter for the wealth inequality among the living this question is not new we found this wonderful quote in a book written by economist Wedgewood in England in the late 1920s he says that inheritance perpetuates perpetuates and may intensify inequalities arising originally from other causes the extent of this of its influence on distribution remains an open question which cannot be decided merely by theoretical reasoning but requires in addition something in the nature of a quantitative analysis of the relevant facts and in fact as it turns out this question is still highly valid we still know quite little about the implications of inheritance on the distribution of wealth okay of course working on the Swedish environment we have one key key advantage namely we can use the registered data that also Jim mentioned are often of high quality when you want to look at the distribution of wealth so in particular we will employ a new database on Sweden where we have registered all inheritance is in fact for the entire population over several years in the 2000s and this is simply for tax reasons we have we have had an inheritance tax and the tax authorities have collected all the states and also then in calculated the the inheritance is to each of the heirs and then the correct inheritance tax in this database then we have all descendants and all their heirs family heirs and non family heirs focus in this analysis will be in the early 2000s when the data are at their best and the data that we have are not only then from the source of the deceased namely the estate but also we we have data on the heirs and their wealth and the and we can also follow these people over time so we have a panel so we in fact observe what happens to the distribution of wealth among the heirs before they inherited and after they inherited and this is at the heart of our analysis we want to look at the before and after and to compare those who inherited with those who have not yet inherited okay what we find so first of all this is a registered analysis of inheritance that have not been able to have not existed before before people have used states samples collected from one particular town or or a country from different sources or they have used computer simulations which we which are based on on assumptions well well founded mostly but nonetheless none of the previous studies have looked at registered data on inheritance so having just the stylized facts coming out of these data are very important so inheritance are very unequally distributed with that's one of the key aspects I will show you more about this we also find a bit remarkably that inheritances actually reduce the cross-sectional inequality among heirs and I will explain why shortly we look at the role of inheritance taxation there are some institutional aspects of the Swedish case where we you want to look at how the inheritance tax was structured but what we find is that it was not very important on the whole and if anything it seems to have reduced increased the level of inequality and I will explain why shortly as well we do also look at the mobility so how people change position in the wealth distribution after having received the inheritance and we see that mobility increases after as a consequence of the inheritance so as you can see we we have some very specific aspects of inheritance and the role of inheritance but what we claim is that these data are so are advantageous from this point of view that we can actually look at causal effects by comparing treated persons those who inherited inherit with those who are not treated and that is not in have not inherited so really coming down to a very precise causal implication of inheritance in at the heart of that is the focus on cohorts so to understand the idea is that in each year a sectional of the population dies in Sweden around 1% and they receive and they have heirs and all the people who inherit from these deceased will then will then represent the full cross section of heirs in society and given that everybody basically inherits some point of their life maybe they inherit nothing in many cases actually this is the case or very small amounts but everybody have everybody has a parent has a parents and or other relatives who will pass on something and for from that perspective looking at the heirs is actually to look at the population of as a whole and focusing on the point in time when they inherit so the cohorts that we look at are those who inherit and they can be very young children young children or they can be fairly old even very old if they inherit means from their children maybe or their brothers or sisters so the counterfactual is not a world without inheritances so that's one discussion that we have in the paper what would have what would that counterfactual in fact be that we would have a 100% inheritance tax for example and we could think then that there are processes come that come to play in terms of how people accumulate their wealth but in our in our case we have a situation where the counterfactual is when people have not yet inherited rather than they will never inherit so we make very little influence on on on the on the on the so to say the plausible world in our analysis okay coming out of the data and I would suspect that this is a representative picture for many of the developing development developed countries in the world so to the left you have a picture of of the distribution of estates so the balance sheets of those who deceased in in this year I know we have all the courts we have we have three courts 2002 2003 and 2004 and then you would have to the right you have the distribution of inheritance and inheritance here are then defined as the means that the heirs get which of course are are relatively you know they map on to the estates but then at this at the estate level you have only the distribution among the deceased but as you can see these distributions are very skewed we have you have genie coefficients around point eight and you see there's big mass points around zero where most people most people live without anything and then you have this fat this tail going up to the right recall now that in many of the standard approaches in economics for example the well-known lifecycle models of Modigliani Brunberg and others they actually claim that people should have lumped being been totally lumped around zero namely that they should not leave anything after after themselves when when they die because this is being consumed away as retired but as we see we have in fact a lot of positive inheritances and positive estates in Sweden at this time you can also see that the heirs are on average 55 years which is then also something which is fairly intuitive that people die in their early 80s in Sweden and their children most of the times are in their 50s okay looking then at the graphic analysis this is one way to show the very intuitive way to show what is the effect of the inheritance on the distribution of wealth so here we have a picture of the cohort 2002 so those inheriting in 2002 and the distribution of their personal wealth in 2001 and 2003 so we can see that the the densities are fairly similar but there are some differences we have a somewhat factor tail in the solid line in 2003 three than we have and we have a smaller share of people being with no net wealth in 2003 then in 2001 we could then from this say that okay there is a shift but this shift could come about for many reasons maybe you know the there are calendar year reasons so we can have business cycle effects on people's wealth of course let's compare the same years but with another cohort the cohort 2004 and this is than people who would who will inherit but not yet have inherited so for them there is see there seems to be a small small differences difference over time but it's much smaller than it is for those who inherit and we can when we look at the the differences in density it's it's clearer that we have here the the cohort 2002 they have a larger decrease of density around with people with no wealth as when they inherit as compared to those in 2004 who have not yet inherited then we also can see whether maybe this is just a general pattern and then we can compare this to a period two years earlier when none of these cohorts have inherited neither the 2002 court or the 2004 court and here as you can see the patterns are very similar for both cohorts as compared to the previous case so this is an indication that something is happening and in fact it's actually captures that the act that the full distribution effect although just in graphs the next step is then to see what happens when we look at some some collect usually normal standard collection of inequality measures so the genie coefficients is obviously the most well-known of those there are some questions about using the genie when you have a lot of zeros and even negative wealth we we we claim that it's possible what we in we also look at coefficient of variation we look at percentile ratios we look at top shares in our analysis I will here only look at the genie coefficients in the interest of time so this is what it looks like so this is the genie coefficient of personal wealth among heirs heirs who have not yet inherited and heirs who are inheriting and afterwards after they have inherited between the years 1999 and 2007 so the picture shows a downward trend of inequality of wealth in this in this group of heirs this downward trend could be explained but a lot of things but typically people are accumulating wealth so there are many lifecycle effects of these particular individuals you see a fairly long large jump downwards in the first year this is the year of the dot-com bubble burst when a lot of high-tech stocks became useless worthless for men of the rich so you would have people losing out disproportionately in the top end of the distribution and that's the genie getting fairly much lower and but what is striking here is that the cohorts in that would be inheriting in 2002 three and four follow very much the same pattern in between 1999 and 2001 and they would actually look following pretty much the same pattern both in trend but also in level in the years after they have inherited in 2005 six and seven but looking at the years when they inherit so we see fairly striking patterns namely that this down the this lower line with the circles this is a 2002 court those who actually inherit after 2001 and during in 2002 you can see the genie decrease much more for them than for the other course who would not have inherited yet looking then at the next year you would see that the 2003 court in squares take this jump down whereas the 2004 cohort who has not still not received inheritors inheritance remains at the same level going one year further you would see that the 2004 cohort when they inherit they experience the decrease in genie coefficient whereas the two and three court does not the reason is that the reason for why have we have a decrease over two years is that for for heirs with parents who die in the end of the year it takes some time until the the the the capital actually gets transferred to their personal accounts so you would have this effect dispersed over two years for for airs those who have who airs with parents who died during 2002 because with late dire late in the year diaries the money would not come until the year after but the effect then is still very consistent so the full effect on the genie would be over these two on the 2002 court would be over these two years and then what we estimate is then compared to the other cohorts over over these two years and then come controlling for the fact that the others are then also inheriting at some point in time but I think this picture gives you a very concise view of the causal effect on the on the cross-sectional wealth distribution of the airs upon inheriting but why then do we see this decreasing dispersion of wealth among the airs so this picture gives you the intuition of that it shows you the dispersion of of inheritances over the distribution of of airs across these sides when they are distributed in these sides so the the the triangular line shows you the mean inheritance over the distribution of of airs so what you see here is that the average level of inheritance gets higher the richer the air is before inheriting that that is if you're a rich air you are more likely on average to receive a large inheritance and this is of course you know something which is very intuitive but when we look at the other line we see that the relative importance of the inheritance so this line shows you the size of the inheritance as a share of your pre inheritance wealth it goes the other way it's much higher for people with little wealth before inheriting than for those who do inherit who inherit who have a lot of wealth before inheriting so the relative importance of the inheritance is is larger for relatively poor airs and this captures very much the effect on the genie coefficient oh yeah so looking at the inheritance tax the Swedish tax in in these years was scaled down to be to be relatively small both in levels and also in level of progressivity but we find in fact that the the effect on on on the distribution is that it seems to have contributed so much to an increase in the level of the genie coefficient when we compare we do it in different ways when we compare the post inheritance genie with and without the inheritance tax we can add it back of course this you know there is a distance there is a behavioral effect that that we do not account for but mechanically we see that it seems to increase the level of inequality a little bit of course there are caveats of when it comes to the tax analysis and we are still working on this so draw you know the general conclusions from inheritance taxation could be affected by the fact that the tax was fairly flat in Sweden and this point at this point and and so on so forth there are some points on that but the intuition behind this result is the same namely that we have as we had in the main result we see that the mean inheritance tax paid by the airs is increasing in the size of the pre inheritance wealth of the airs so the airs who are richer before inheriting on average pay more inheritance tax than those who are poorer than in before inheriting but when we look at the the the tax receipt as a share of pre inheritance wealth of the of the airs it's larger for poorer relatively poorer airs and this is this line so we would have the same relative versus absolute differences in in terms of the effect on the on the wealth distribution of airs we also look at the mobility with the people switch places in the distribution so this plot this picture shows you a collection of mobility measures and using basically the same difference in difference analysis as we used in the main in the main exercise and what we see here is that the level of mobility increases upon inheriting for the 2002 cohort and for the 2003 cohort when they inherit and in relative terms for the 2004 cohort where there seems to be a downward trend in all over when it comes in terms of mobility so and this is perhaps not so surprising that people switch places relatively more often when they inherit and but this is just merely establishing that fact using this causal analysis as we claim okay of course there are many more things to say we have a paper which is a working paper on the web on these issues and I you know I was not humble enough to mention that there you know many many of the papers there are out there that have addressed these issues before which there are people here in the audience who have actually contributed a lot to this literature but this is a this is an ongoing question which is of quite some interest so what we then look find using these register data which is our key advantage of this study is that we find this compressionary effect on the wealth distribution of airs upon inheriting but of course in we we we we are still working on this analysis and we look forward to hearing your comments because of course there are issues that you want to think about what about did we did not think about or we have not still not looked at the distribution of the tax received to people so how would that affect the wealth distribution if say all the wealth inheritance taxes or inheritance tax receipts would be distributed to the to the people at the lower end what would what would be would be the counterfactual thought experiment if that if you would tax all inheritance or all inheritances and then redistribute them perhaps progressively of course then that raises another question what would happen to people's willingness to accumulate wealth in the first place anyway there are a lot of issues on this agenda I think this the role of inheritance is inheritance is for for wealth inequality has it's been been been discussed before but it will be discussed more and more over the years and and for reasons that I started out saying namely that wealth inequality is increasing and and the aggregate size of inherited wealth in the economies are is also increasing so we won't think about these questions more and more over the time thank you


And again, the better we... Makes it way better, right? Makes us way more calculated. Now, I'm gonna talk about a couple of problem areas, all right, and there's a couple more things on the leg defense that we'll do, but I wanna talk about a couple of problem areas too. But let's talk about power half, all right? Because power half's one of those tricky things that like, you know, it's kinda like leg defense. Best leg defense, don't let legs in, right? I get it, all right? Best power half defense, don't let a guy get a power half on you. I mean, guys that are good with power halfs, get out to the elbow and start stretching us out. It's bad news. All right, I'm gonna give you a couple options here, all right? So we're getting to this position right here, strong position. If this guy goes power half before I go to hip smash, strong position, all right? What I wanna do with my left elbow, because the minute he gets here, it's a wrap, I'm gone. Okay, it's gonna be real tough for me to recover from this. So what we're gonna do, he starts power half cranking me in my base. What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna keep my elbow tight, but I'm also gonna step my free leg up to reinforce my elbow. See, I'm kinda pushing my elbow in with my knee right here. Then, standing power half, then when I get there, I'm gonna come back to strong position, all right? When I get to strong position right here. When I get to strong position, I'm still hiding my elbow with my knee and then I'm focused on working the legs out. But I'm keeping this elbow tight. Now, once I get this bottom leg out and I start getting my hips away, this power half isn't as effective. Even if he cranks the power half now, I'm just swimming because he has no control over my hips. All right? I really think that if we stay here and try to just push back in strong position without that knee reinforcing my elbow, we get ourselves in a decent bit of trouble. So that's what I'm talking about. He starts cranking that power half in my base and I just try to push back to strong position. That momentum, yeah. That momentum is gonna get me, okay? I'm almost creating a better situation by pushing back, all right? So I like this knee, this kind of knee-reinforced thing.  But he's gonna get in this leg ride. I'm still blocking. He goes power half. I step up and reinforce my elbow with my knee and I keep it trapped as I pressure back to strong position. This is the foot I'm worried about right now, okay? So I block my elbow, I keep hips low and as soon as I get to my kickstand strong position, foot comes out, okay? Because if he still keeps cranking and he gets me about right here, I'm in trouble, okay? So again, once I get here elbow tight, hidden by my knee, I put the foot out and I block. Now if he does continue to beat me with the power half, I at least have my hips free, okay? I at least have my hips free. I can swim towards the head, run out of his lap, start wrestling that position. Now, I don't necessarily have to swim for the head. I can scoop my hips away and get skinny and try to turn in the face. I stretch his power half out, all right? I feel pretty confident swimming the head right there. All right, so one more time. I'm blocking, power half comes in my base, all right? I step up outside knee to reinforce my elbow. Notice my chest is low, hips are low and I'm pushing my elbow in with my knee. It's not just, I'm putting it there for looks. I'm trapping my own elbow. I'm pressuring back, strong position, immediately attack this foot, okay? This is what, because when he power halfs, think about the mechanics of a power half. He's taking my chest, my head and my shoulders away as he anchors my hips with his leg. So if I see that, his leg is taking my hips and anchoring them down there and he's stretching my body out. So if I get here and I'm blocking my elbow and he can't stretch for a couple seconds and I'll put them out and block, there's no way he can anchor my hips. And I can get here and scoot down, right? I don't feel as good here as if I do. Just getting a little separation and then a big swim to the head, all right? Big swim to the head. One thing I do have to worry about though is that that top side boot does come in. Right here, I gotta attack it, okay? And if I get this position, power half, I don't take it to his head, right? Not a good idea. I would just probably throw it out and then scoot and attack the head, rotate out of the lap. Just get away from his lap, okay? Play in there, go!


Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another video. So I actually sat down today to record Wheel of Mutt. And honestly, it's not uncommon for people to just trash talk me.  Whatever. But recently, people have been taking, like, serious shots at me. This guy, who has, this is like a Minecraft user named Diamond Knight. I guarantee this has to say, he's gotta be 10 years old, plays Minecraft, saw a video, and now he wants to trash talk me. Talk about some guy banging Bella, of course. Go straight for Bella. MMG, you're- I don't even know how that's supposed to be spelled absolutely.  How does it feel getting Bella stolen by a 12-year-old?  I really shouldn't be entertaining this, but I'm gonna entertain this today. Play me right now and I'll destroy you. L. I honestly just wanted to record Wheel of Mutt today, but I think- I think if this guy is gonna play a game with me, I think that's what we're gonna do for today's video. I know he's- there's no way people like this are good at man. It just is not possible. You're gonna get massacred. Shake in my head, this is why you lost Bella. NIGGA! That kinda threw me over the edge.  But, uh, this- this one guy, I guess, is getting his lucky way.  Who wants to put- you guys want to put back on, like, what pitch his voice is? I'm willing to bet he's just got a 10-year-old voice. 10 to 12. No- no older than 8th grade. It's not a party, I'm like, moment of truth. I'm excited to see how your response is. Can you hear me? Hey, what's up guys?  I don't- I don't know how crazy you are for this.   Exactly what this kid is gonna sound like. Okay. Maybe I sound weird, but- Do you have a- do you have a girlfriend? Do you have a girlfriend? Can I make jokes against- Do you have a girlfriend? Hey, that's not it. Yeah, bro, I have a girlfriend. I do. Her name's Bella. What's your girlfriend? OH!  You little- Okay, I'm gonna find you a game right now. Alright, wait, I'm going to play. I'm gonna- I'm gonna play a game. Okay, I'm gonna play a game. I already have a team drafted, just draft for the review. I already have a team drafted too. I already have a team drafted too and you're about to get destroyed with it. It's not even that good. You talk so much. We haven't even started. Oh. Hey, I don't care. I'm not gonna underline anything quite yet. But for taking shots at my ex-girlfriend, I broke up with my ex-girl. Here's the number. I am going to, oh, am I other ex-girlfriend than you are. Psych! That's the wrong number! Oh!     Everyone in my, everyone in my comment section too.   I wish Bella was in this video. Wait, you said put my money where my mouth is. I put my money where Bella's mouth is. Damn! Oh, God, please don't. Hey, you already hear it wrecked by 12. You're messing around here. What's your clickbait thumbnail gonna be?  Like right now you're saying all this, but when I'm winning by like at least probably 21 to zero, I'll just put in this little meme montage in the video. Like as I'm, as I'm running in showboating, scoring a touchdown in the background, you'll hear the audio of you going, I'm going to wreck you. Uh, I'm with Bella. I'm just gonna put all those audio clips in. It's gonna be a great day. You're gonna put it in there? Oh, now we're gonna do the editor jokes. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. What do you mean? Dude, I edit for eight hours a day and I don't have any editors and it's not like I pay them a dollar every hour. Do you want anything?  Wait, is that how good? Wow, how did you get a 94? I didn't get a single 94 or 93. Is your username, is your username like Minecraft related? I guarantee it is.  Like, yeah. That's exactly what I thought. I was like six, it doesn't count. Oh sweet, you're eight now. It's been two whole years, how's it feel? You want to fight it? Bro. Dude, that would be child abuse. I don't even worry. What was that play where you always got the running back to touch on a real mutt? P.A. Shackles and you're getting- Oh, Grog, you gotta get that juice. You're gonna see it right here. Boom, right there. Rifle it over, A. First down. Money!  You're real quiet now.  But I mean like- Oh, money! I'm inside zone to the left and I'm still gonna go this side. Oh, am I just gonna touch down? Calling the police of school when I'm fighting here since I've been in ESL. Are you trying to talk trash to me for how long my drive took? I just want a second point. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, because I think I could hold you on. Oh, I think you could hold me on defense.  If you guys want to watch the real gameplay- Get your shameless plug out of here. Video.  I knew I should- No! Hey, remember when you said I wasn't gonna get a single point? Chobo, cha-cha-cha. I thought I wasn't gonna get a single point on the board. That's six. I need a handicap. Throw a pick right here. That's my handicap. All right, no, I'm just gonna scram. It's EA, you never know. Rock, you better get in that end zone. No! I'm not gonna consciously score. I'm not gonna consciously score. Let's go! Literally gets a Hail Mary touch.  Such a good user by me. You literally cannot move. I can't? I can't throw the ball anywhere now? Or you say it? Or you say it's a thing? 12 seconds later. I assume this is a run of some sort. Obviously it is. Oh, you're kidding! Ha ha ha!  A big hitter fumble, fullback died? And your other touchdown was somewhat respectable. I'll give it to you on your other touchdown. Hopkick! Oh, you saw me working! Saw! I saw your user and his garbage, so I threw straight at it. Good looks! Cause you will not be within three points at the end of this game. Oh, you thought. Yeah, you user playmaker! His garbage!   If I, yeah, but the video can.  And you also have to do a weird prank. Texting on Bella.  The lyric prank text are the lamest things ever. Oh, let's get it! Boo-yay! Return it for sick. Boo-yay to the house! Oh, you thought. I should have let you kill it. You just lost my 10.  You do not even care. You just got exposed. All right, see you later, Jake. Paul, you're so good. I really enjoyed that, kid. All right, guys. More passing yards, less rushing yards, more average yards, way more takeaways, and obviously a higher score, because you took it down here.  That does not mean I'm gonna play with you just because you tell me that Bella and I are not together anymore, doesn't work. Thanks for watching as always, guys. I hope you enjoyed the video. I might do more videos like this. I think this is fun, the little back and forth banter stuff. That's it for now, guys. Thanks for watching as always. Take care.


Welcome to this series of videos on tools that can help you improve your study in reading, writing, and organization. Why should you start thinking about using some digital tools? Well, there are many reasons, but first, they can help you make the process of reading easier, both in terms of how much you can read, how easily you read it, and also how well you comprehend what you are reading. They can help you get more writing done, take better notes. Also, they can make the process of referencing, which is so important for academic writing, much easier. And finally, they can help you organize your studies better as well. Now, this should not be just a matter of watching a few videos. This should be a long process of reflection and improvement. So as you watch the videos, you will be given a menu of options, things you can choose from. But then you will have to sit down and reflect on what actually might work for you, which things that you think will improve your life and allocate some time to that decision and choosing the right tools. But in the long term, you should practice. You should dedicate some time to improving the way you use these digital tools and reflect on how they actually improve the way you're studying. And maybe you decided some of them are not improving and make decisions about changing them or not using them at all. Now, the tools you will be presented with fall into one of three categories. They are fairly low investment tools where you just may install a piece of software. But there are also things that require medium investment. We may have to spend quite a bit of time learning how to best use something, for example, a referencing manager. But there are also high investment tools, high investment suggestions, where you may have to significantly change the way you approach some parts of your studies. You may decide, you may have to make some purchases.  Now, we will cover six areas on reading, note-taking, writing, referencing, organization, and workflows. This is not the only place where you can learn about these things, so where can you go to learn more? So first, there is a database associated with this video that you can find a link to that covers all the tools mentioned here with brief descriptions and categorization. You will find also the Learning Productivity and Study Skills Support site has many more resources, both internal and external, that you can draw on. And one of the places where you should definitely think about going is LinkedIn Learning, which is available to all Oxford University students. And you can find out on the L-PASS site Learning Productivity and Study Skills site by going to the Learn More link and reading about how to access it. And also, maybe take advantage of some of the recommended courses. That covers mostly questions to do with Microsoft Office, but there are also many other useful tools that you will find beneficial. There are other places where you can go. You can subscribe to various blogs or podcasts or follow YouTube channels that cover study skills and particularly tools for study. So there are many of these. Those and there are again linked in that Learn More section there. So this is just by way of introduction. In the next video, we're going to have a deeper look at the various tools you can use to improve your reading.


What is a course? A course in Moodle is basically a space on the Moodle site where one or more teachers can add learning resources and activities for their students. What your course might look like as a teacher will depend partly on the chosen theme and settings of your administrator. But you can usually expect to see blocks, for example here on the right-hand side, but yours might be on the left or on both sides of the larger central area here where the actual teaching and learning resources will be added. In this course there are numbered topics, but if we look at a different course, which is still Moodle but has a different theme, you can see that these are divided into weekly sections and there are blocks on the right and on the left. In another video we'll look at the use of these blocks. In order to add learning resources you need to have the editing turned on and you can do this either by clicking the button top right or by going to your administration block and clicking the link turn editing on. This then displays an edit menu next to each resource for editing the settings, deleting, duplicating, hiding etc. For example there's a news forum here and if I wish to move it into a different topic section I click the cross hairs icon and I can move it up or down by dragging and dropping. If you aren't able to move by dragging and dropping then it's worth asking your administrator to check your browser settings and the Moodle site settings. In order to add files, documents or activities for your students you need to click the link add an activity or resource in the section where you'd like them to appear. It doesn't matter if you choose the wrong section by mistake because it's always possible to move them afterwards. When you click add an activity or resource this displays Moodle's activity chooser which then allows you to choose what you would like to add and we'll look at this in a separate video. If you don't see the link add an activity or resource it might be because it hasn't been turned on in your course in which case you can check in your administration block, activity chooser or again ask your Moodle admin to check your settings. In the next video we look at how you can change the name and the layout of your Moodle course.