Very good. Please. Yeah. Help me. Are we giving a march from North Korea or from Arsene? Just from Arsene. OK. Yeah. That works. You've got the option, too, if you want. But I think we'll all just sit down. Yeah. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. My name is David Livingston. And I'm an associate in our energy and climate program here in Washington. I'd like to start off with a few words of thanks, a few words of gratitude before we get going this morning. So thanks, first of all, to the Embassy of the United States in Finland. Thanks to the US State Department. Thanks also, a very special thanks to the Embassy of Finland here in Washington, DC, for providing the very conventional fuels that are giving you energy this morning, coffee and pastries. They are very graciously co-hosting this morning's event and are responsible for the food we're all enjoying for breakfast. I'd also like to thank the Carnegie Endowment for hosting this event, for the many staff that have made this possible. A special thanks to Florencia Franzini, who's tirelessly worked to put this all together and to make it a very, very smooth start this morning. And I'd finally like to thank all of you for coming out and spending an hour or two with us on what is otherwise a really temperate and quite beautiful morning in Washington, DC. It's appropriate that as we see our winter thaw into the blossoming of cherry trees and the welcome arrival of spring, we also gather here to discuss a thaw with far more mixed and systemic implications, which is the thawing of the Arctic, of course. It was only a quarter century ago that the Arctic passed from a great unknown, essentially an area of relative obscurity on the global map into what was perceived as the next great frontier discovery, a wild west to many, and in particular to those who didn't live in the Arctic space, those who were not Nordic countries or at the far north of Canada or the United States or Russia. It's incredible as well that since that quarter century ago when the Arctic first began to be studied in greater depth, understood to grow in public perception and awareness that we've quickly, with the help of our scientific communities here in Europe, in Russia, and elsewhere, we've come to see the Arctic as a place of rich endowments, not only of resources, oil and gas, minerals, rare earth minerals, et cetera, but also as a rich endowment of culture, indigenous peoples, and ways of life, and a space which is incredibly unique in an otherwise highly globalized world. And it's no sooner that we've gotten to know this previously terra incognita that we also have come to see that it's changing before our very eyes. The Arctic that we've come to learn about is an Arctic which is evolving, and the Arctic of 2050 or 2100 will hardly be the Arctic of today. This of course is the result of two great human-driven processes. On the one hand, there's economic development and growth and maturation. On the other hand, there's anthropogenic climate change. And as President Obama very poignantly put it to paraphrase his remarks at the Paris Climate Conference last year, we are the generation that will, on the one hand, be the first to come to have certainty over the challenge of climate change and the scale of the challenge which it presents. And on the other hand, we will also be the last generation with the power to do something about it. It starkly puts into relief this temporal challenge of not only climate change but of climate change's great bellwether, which is the future of the Arctic region. Saved for a few prolific days of ice growth, we're expecting to have the lowest year of maximum ice cover on record in the Arctic in this current period than we've had in recorded history. And that's after last year set a previous record, a record low for the recorded maximum ice coverage. As the Arctic thaws, it's presenting not only new risks but new opportunities. There's much made of the resources in the Arctic. There's much made of new shipping routes, the Northwest Passage, et cetera. But the challenge for governance in the Arctic will be to balance those risks and opportunities. Essentially, it will be to take a generation that is inherited an Arctic as a frontier of opportunity and to balance it against a generation that now also increasingly views it as a region of responsibility that we're inheriting. Finland, which we're very, very pleased to be hosting here this morning, plays a critical role in determining that future and determining the shape of Arctic governance for years to come. It's notable that Finland has played an incredibly active and prominent role in Arctic governance and in particular environmental governance for a number of decades. It's no surprise. Finland only recently was named in an index as the least failed state in the world. If you interpret that in slightly less euphemistic terms, that might suggest that they're one of the best governed in the world. And so Finland has much to offer and is a partner not only in the Arctic Council but as an important bilateral partner of the United States, an indispensable bilateral partner on issues that include how to send those in the Arctic. The Arctic Council, of course, can also be traced to Finland. It was the Rovaniemi process that laid the foundations for what became environmental governance of the Arctic and what eventually led to the formation of the Arctic Council 20 years ago in 1996. An anniversary we're now celebrating. And Finland has consistently a unique leadership role in setting the agenda for good governance of the Arctic and ensuring that we lay down the rules and guidelines for safe operation in the Arctic in collaboration with all of the partners in the Arctic, including a number of new observer states or putative observer states that all see some stake in the future of Arctic governance. And so it's our pleasure to welcome today a discussion over the transition from the U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic to the Finnish chairmanship of the Arctic next year and to talk also in particular about the role of sustainable development and about the paradigm shift away from the Arctic as a Wild West to an Arctic of increasingly knowable and yet very complex risks and fragilities and opportunities at the heart of those risks and fragilities as we move into the Finnish chairmanship and beyond. It's notable that last week or actually earlier this week rather President Obama and Prime Minister Trudeau not only reinvigorated the U.S.-Canada relationship and of course Canada's chairmanship of the Arctic Council came just prior to the current U.S. chairmanship but they also elevated the issue of the Arctic to a level that I previously have not seen in the bilateral U.S.-Canada relationship. And so there's momentum behind us, there's wind at our back, there's a growing salience of the Arctic is an issue of great concern but it's still history that's being written particularly with a number of very politically powerful members of the Arctic Council and it's one of the few areas of the world in which history is yet before us and is yet to be written. So with that I'd like to introduce our speakers. We're extremely grateful to be joined by a distinguished, knowledgeable and very thoughtful group of thinkers on the Arctic and issues beyond the Arctic. To begin with on my immediate right, Melanie Nakagawa is the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Transformation in the Bureau of Energy Resources Department. Kirstie Kelpie is the Ambassador of Finland to the United States. She was previously posted to Vienna where she served as Ambassador of Finland to Austria and is Finland's permanent representative to the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency as well as the UN organizations in Vienna. And Charles C. Adams Jr., a personal friend, is U.S. Ambassador to Finland. Prior to his nomination, he was the leading partner in the Geneva Switzerland office of Aikengump, Strauss, Hauer and Feld. And Ambassador Adams, since taking over as Ambassador, only quite recently, has actively immersed himself in issues relating to Finland and in particular has taken interest in the Arctic and the role that the U.S.-Finland bilateral relationship is going to play in the Arctic region for years to come. So I would ask him to lead off and to give us a bit of insight into what the United States is doing in its Arctic chairmanship, what role the U.S. Embassy in Helsinki plays in that, and what we might expect in the months to come. Please. David, thank you for that introduction. It's terrific to be back in our nation's capital. I can report to you that there is yet snow on the ground in Helsinki, so getting off the plane into 75-degree temperature brought to mind that the spring is indeed just around the corner. As you've said, David, the Arctic is very much of a priority for the United States. It's a series of issues which come together under that rubric, which are attracting a great deal of attention in this country, in the member states of the Arctic Council and indeed around the world. It was last summer that President Obama made history in the course of his visit to Alaska in August by becoming the first sitting U.S. President to set foot in the Arctic. And in so doing, he helped to draw the attention of the American people to the fact that we are an Arctic nation and have an important stake in the Arctic and in its future. So too is the Arctic central to Finland, which has 40% of its landmass north of the Arctic Circle, north of 66.7 degrees latitude and not insignificant a portion of its population, including the fifth biggest city north of the Arctic Circle, which is Rovaniemi. And so it is only natural that the Arctic should be a large part of our own ongoing responsibilities and activities of the American Embassy in Helsinki. Finnish Prime Minister Soini was of course an active participant in the Glacier Conference in Anchorage last August. In fact, when he was introduced to President Obama, he announced himself memorably by saying, I'm Timo from Finland and I'm here to help. And indeed Finland has been a stalwart member of the Arctic Council ever since its formation 20 years ago and is looking forward to assuming the chairmanship of the Arctic Council taking over from the United States in April of 2017. So this is an appropriate time to provide a very quick overview of what's been going on in the US chairmanship of the Arctic Council and what we at the Embassy in Helsinki have been doing in connection with this theme. Following President Obama's visit to the Glacier Conference and his visit to the US Arctic, there was a realization that there needed to be a greater degree of coordination as among the various federal and state and local agencies involved in issues pertaining to the Arctic. And so there was thus formed within the White House the Arctic Executive Steering Committee under the leadership of our former ambassador to Sweden, Mark Brzezinski. And the Arctic Executive Steering Committee among other things has been very much involved in recent months in looking toward September into a forthcoming meeting of the White House Arctic Science Ministerial Gathering which will bring together senior scientific authorities and ministers responsible for scientific activities from the eight member states of the Arctic Council. In the meantime, the Arctic Council itself under U.S. Championship has been pushing forward vigorously with the U.S. agenda under the theme of one Arctic with shared opportunities, challenges and responsibilities for all. This echoes the belief of the United States that all eight Arctic Council members must work together to address the formidable challenges of a changing Arctic and to embrace the opportunities that this presents and together to face the responsibilities which we have as stewards of this vast and awesome region of the planet. I won't speak in any detail of the activities of the Arctic Council insofar as climate change and renewable energies and the like are concerned since Das Nakagawa is expert on these subjects. This is one of the principal vectors of activity in the current U.S. Championship as also is the protection of the Arctic environment, the development of a pan-Arctic network of marine protected areas and generally promoting a circumpolar network of local environmental observers. The warming Arctic also presents opportunities for new shipping routes and for oil and gas exploration. Even though this is rather abated during the current decline in cyclical prices of oil it is nonetheless a fact that this is something that we are concerned with and planning for the future of the Arctic in coming generations. In two weeks on the 25th of March there will come into effect the Arctic Council's agreement on oil pollution preparedness and there will be several exercises that have been planned to rehearse in real time the concerted responses of the member states and the kind of an emergency should such occur in the future in these very, very fragile ecosystems. We're also planning a number of exercises to enhance response capabilities to mass search and rescue operations in the Arctic to deal with the eventuality that with increased activity in shipping there could occur emergencies that are immediate access to the region for the evacuation. For example, of cruise ship passengers from stranded cruise ship this is something which would have been scarcely imaginable as recently as a decade ago but I can tell you that the first major cruise ship activity in the Arctic and in the barren seas will be unfolding this coming summer and this will bring with it the possibility of the kinds of scenarios that will require urgent response and urgent rehearsed response and this is the point of both the tabletop and the real time exercise that will be taking place led by the US in the coming months and of course in May of 2017 will be the next full ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council in Fairbanks, Alaska to mark the end of the US chairmanship and the beginning of Finland's chairmanship of the Arctic Council for the ensuing two years. So there are a lot of very very exciting programs and activities that are unfolding I can tell you that it's a particular privilege to be in Helsinki as ambassador during this period because virtually every day brings with it some new learning, some new adventure and the sense of participating in something that has true meaning for our country as it does for Finland for the entire membership of the Arctic Council and for the international community as a whole. I'd like to mention just a couple of specific ramifications of all of this for our embassy in Helsinki or for my own activity in the coming months. For one thing, I've been dealing a lot and thinking a lot about ice breakers. Paradoxically, in this era of global warming and of melting ice cap, ice breakers are an even more urgent theme. President Obama at the Glacier conference committed the United States to an accelerated program for the design and construction over a 10-year time horizon of at least one new heavy ice breaker and medium-weight ice breakers also within the same program. Already a $150 million allocation has been in the budget submitted to Congress for the Coast Guard to launch this program. This is of extreme interest to Finland. Finland happens to be a world leader in ice breaker design and construction. In fact, two-thirds of the world's fleet of ice breakers has been built in Finland. And therefore, this American program for the enhancement of our, at the present, completely inadequate ice breaker capability affords interesting opportunities for commercial collaboration between Finnish enterprise and American shipyards and ice breaker operators. Last week, the Vice Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, Admiral Michel, was in Helsinki on a visit centered on precisely this theme. And Admiral Michel visited several installations in Helsinki having to do with ice breaker design, with the testing of new hull configurations for sea-going, ice-going vessels. He visited the very impressive shipyards in Rauma. And I think we can expect that in the coming months and indeed years, these kinds of reciprocal visits on a theme pertaining to ice breakers will be very, very frequent. We've also had the pleasure in the last couple of months of hosting in Helsinki special Arctic envoy, Admiral Papp, who has made repeated trips to Finland. He was in Helsinki immediately following the Tromsø meeting of the Arctic Council and has promised to be back in Finland early and often, to which we very much look forward. Another couple of Arctic-related themes. It happens that incoming ambassadors in American embassies abroad reforted the opportunity of putting together an art collection through the programs of the art and embassies resources in the Department of State centered on a theme chosen by the ambassador and the ambassador's spouse. And naturally enough, our theme is the Arctic. And so we now have, in the residence in Helsinki, a small collection of first-rate Arctic art, paintings, photographs, some sculptures to which we will be adding for the time that we are privileged to be in Helsinki conducting tours for school children and more generally making that part of the embassy a living testimonial to the extent to which the Arctic is a major theme for our country as it is also for Finland. Along the same lines, we're looking forward to our celebration of the 4th of July at the embassy in Helsinki. This is an event which, in Finland, actually doesn't occur on the 4th of July because July is to the Finns August is to the French, which is either nobody's around at all. So we celebrate the 4th of July in Helsinki on June 16. And there too, every year, there's a theme, and naturally, the theme of our 4th of July celebration on June 16 in Helsinki is the Arctic, which means that all of the food options are centered on the Arctic, which brings to mind, first and foremost, Alaska King Crab Clause. And we are in discussions with the Alaska King Crab Fisherman's Association to see if they might like to contribute a ton or so to our activity on June 16. So two lobsters and oysters and reindeer, hot dogs, and so forth, people in polar bear costumes. Terovaraste, the excellent and vigorous CEO of Arktia, the Finnish operator of icebreakers, has agreed to position one of Arktia's icebreakers on the waterfront right outside of our embassy and to have tours of the icebreaker for our 2,000 guests. It will be quite a day, I think. And I'm hopeful that we can encourage some of the membership of our Alaska congressional delegations to be on hand to help us celebrate. I was just last month in the city of Oulu on the Ostrobothnian coast of Finland, mostly to give the keynote address of the Fulbright Arktic conference, but also to participate in a rather eccentric gathering called the polar bear pitch fest. Now what is the polar bear fest, you might ask? I think we have a representation of this. Basically, the idea is to get start-up enterprises to practice their elevator pitch, if you like, how to explain in one minute or less why one's product or project is the greatest thing since light spread, but you have to do it from a hole in the ice. And so I was asked to inaugurate the proceedings at the polar bear ice fest, and so I did, and marched into this very, very cold water with ice cubes floating in it in my best Hong Kong Taylor's white suit. I got an email from him striking me from his list of customers and making this little pitch actually in finish for the most part for longer than I thought it was going to be tolerable. It was great fun. There's a YouTube video, actually, if you want to make note of the link. I can bear with you since we're among friends. I wanted to comment to my colleague from the embassy who was there waiting with a bathrobe to put over me, which is that I was very happy that I already have two children. Wonderful. Thank you. Thank you very much, Ambassador Adams. And I can only imagine that the State Department is hard at work recalculating the hazard pay calculation that goes into the Finnish post who do that entrepreneurship carried with it such sacrifices. Thank you very much. Ambassador Kaupi, I would ask you as a country that's been invested in the Arctic, understanding the Arctic, governing the Arctic and cooperating in a bilateral, multilateral fashion for so long on Arctic issues. What does it mean for Finland from the view of the diplomatic corps and how do you view this handover from the US chair to the Finnish chair going into 2017? Well, thank you, David, very much. But I have to start by saying that I watched the YouTube video and I have to say that Ambassador Adams would have made a better thing than myself. I would never do that. But I can claim something else and that is that I myself am almost an Arctic product. I was born close to the Arctic Circle. So I think that sort of is something that I can claim. But I would like to start actually by stating something that is probably obvious to everybody here but it needs to be restated and restated and that is why is the Arctic crucial? Why is it crucial globally for the whole humankind, not only for the Arctic nations? And that is, of course, that the impact of climate change is so much more dramatically stronger in the Arctic than elsewhere and also that the changes in the Arctic function as an accelerator of climate change. And that is also the reason why actually the one most important sort of international effort related to the Arctic and the governance in the Arctic and what is the future of the Arctic is the Paris Climate Agreement and its implementation. So that will be crucial for the future of the Arctic. It will be crucial for the Arctic policies, priorities and challenges. And of course there are other two sides in the Paris Climate Agreement. There's the mitigation side which has to be a priority globally but where the Arctic countries have to show leadership. And then there's the adaptation. And since we are talking about the Arctic, both as far as the mitigation and the adaptation are concerned, we need special specific measures in the Arctic. Since the environment, both natural and human environment is quite special. As far as the adaptation side is concerned, of course the rising temperature and the melting ice have a direct impact on the 4 million people who live in the Arctic and who call Arctic their home. These communities have to increase their resilience in the face of changing conditions. The traditional livelihoods need to be complemented. People need new skills which correspond to the new demands of also the digital age. And there of course we come to issues like education and training for instance. As far as the mitigation side is concerned, it's important to note that the most acute climate change and environmental problem in the Arctic is black carbon. It's a powerful short-lived greenhouse gas particles from power plants, traffic and flaring and descending on polar ice it makes it melt at a rapid rate. So one can claim that in the short run reducing these emissions is actually more critical and more cost effective as a mitigation measure than reducing CO2. That is of course not to diminish the importance of reducing CO2 but when we are thinking about the concrete urgent actions that are needed this is the area where special attention is needed in the Arctic. So we were very happy when the US Germanship from the Arctic Council has named the reduction of black carbon emissions as the first task in the Arctic. The Arctic Council has agreed on an enhanced black carbon and methane emissions reductions framework of action and it will be very important to implement this as a high priority in all the Arctic Council countries and this is obviously a big challenge because we are talking about maybe thousands of power plants and a lot of other things as well. Science and research is extremely important for several reasons we need a solid basis scientific basis for our actions and also for the simple reason that things are changing rapidly so we need to not only a picture of what the situation is at present time but some kind of projections of what is going to happen and that is of course that is why we are especially happy that the United States is focusing a lot on science and research and there is going to be the ministerial in September which is of course not limited to the Arctic Council countries but is a broader forum. I would just like to mention one particular dimension of the institution in the science and research field and that is that there is a university of the Arctic U Arctic and it's a network of universities, research institutes and other organizations that are already functioning and by networking they are building sort of stronger resources for the Arctic research and also very useful collaborative infrastructure. Now to the Arctic Council much has been said already and as was mentioned Finland has early on focused quite a lot on trying to figure out what would be a very pragmatic but efficient way of addressing concrete issues that we are facing today and going to face in the future in the Arctic and developing structures where we can address the governance issues regulation issues but also very much the issues of collaboration. And here of course the Arctic Council is a key institution one should say the key institution. We can talk more about how the Arctic Council functions and what is let's say the what other structures today of course many have asked whether it is possible to work in a collaborative passion in the Arctic Council because the overall political situation is not the best that we could hope for but it is very important that all the members of the Arctic Council have actually come to the conclusion that this collaboration cooperation is so important that we have to continue on a very inclusive basis in other words all the Arctic Council needs to take part despite of the political situation so this is very important the Arctic Council has continued to function in a very pragmatic fashion despite of the overall situation. There is also a very strong common understanding between the members of the Arctic Council that the cooperation needs actually to be strengthened and here of course the chairmanship is in a very key position. The US chairmanship program has been very and is very ambitious and everybody all the Arctic Council members have welcomed that program. The US chairmanship is in midway at the moment so we feel in Finland that it would be a bit early to talk about the details of the Finnish chairmanship. We are in the process of consulting with the other Arctic Council member states on the priorities of our program but what I can say and underline is that our chairmanship program will place a lot of emphasis on continuity. Successive chairmanship can only be successful if there is strong continuity and obviously in the Arctic we need a very long-term perspective. We have been extremely happy with the cooperation between the US and Finland as far as the Arctic Council chairmanship is concerned we have a very intensive cooperation we meet regularly we have an easy communication and I'm also very happy to report that we are we have also very vibrant bilateral cooperation between the US and Finland on the Arctic issues. Now as far as Finland's approach to the Arctic is concerned we do place a lot of emphasis on the environmental aspect sustainability of the development in environmental terms but it is obvious that there will be there is already a lot of economic activity in the Arctic and there will be much more so it is important to address the issues related to the economic activity early and that is why we have welcomed very much not only the regulatory work and the science and research work within the Arctic Council but also the formation of Arctic Economic Council which was established in 2014 because it is also important that the economic actors develop a common approach and a common sort of basis as far as science and research is concerned so there is a link between the regulatory side of things and the economic actors themselves. Another important body is the Arctic Coast Guard Forum which was established last year a lot of concrete practical cooperation and finally there are other organizations as well which work on the Arctic issues the Barrens Euro Arctic Council is a very interesting form of cooperation where the regions of the Arctic work together with the Arctic nations countries, governments and in a very concrete fashion again and also one should not forget the EU's North and Dimension Policies where we have implemented quite a lot of important concrete projects which have a direct impact on the Arctic environment as well so maybe this as I'm afraid a little bit of a lengthy introduction but a very welcome one and insightful as well and it's actually quite natural leading because Ambassador Calvi you laid out a number of high level principles and gave us a picture of some of the political dynamics at work and the Arctic Council seeks out its agenda and future in 2017 and Melinda your leading work right now that's extremely important in translating these higher level principles and priorities into action on the ground actually seeing sustainable development happen and you're at a very interesting place in the US government where you see that connection between the political and between the empirical working public-private partnerships working with local communities could you give us a little bit of a picture on what is the US government's holistic approach to sustainable development in the Arctic? Great well thank you and thank you again for inviting me to be here today it's a great discussion so far so I'm looking forward to some of the questions from all of you in the audience as well so let me just kick it off with just a couple points to get some more discussion going about what we're doing here at the State Department and also throughout the US government in the Arctic region as we think about from the narrow lens frankly the energy window because you've really gotten a great perspective this morning of the various different pillars by which we're operating the Arctic and in various Arctic priorities but in my current role in the energy space I just wanted to elaborate a bit more on that Ambassador Adams already made it very clear that Arctic is a top priority for the United States and in particular it's the warming of the Arctic that makes it quite unique you know as many of you already should know and know it's warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world and this warming is really affecting not only the region but also having tangible effects globally as well as the Arctic warms there's an increasing evidence that the warming is changing weather patterns even 4,000 miles away even here in Washington DC last summer President Obama as Ambassador Adams made it clear he made this historic visit to Alaska as the first sitting president to attend the Glacier conference I joined the Secretary of State at this conference as well and it was really important about this conference to be surrounded by Arctic foreign ministers from around the world and members of the cabinet to talk about the work that we're doing the Arctic and specifically the Arctic communities to deploy low carbon solutions that can improve livelihoods enhance energy security and promote sustainable economic growth such as renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency measures but really the trifecta of both economic prosperity energy technologies and community development was a key part of that during the visit President Obama announced the creation of a new project to support clean energy development in the Arctic and also climate resiliency activities for the most vulnerable communities this included Department of Energy's 4 million remote Alaskan communities energy efficiency challenge I'm afraid it doesn't make for a great acronym but it's quite a long title but it's very descriptive at least and it provided support for communities affected by climate change through the Denali Commission internationally though we're also working closely with global partners to achieve our common Arctic interest and our shared values and prepare this region for the future particularly through the Arctic Council and we're looking forward to working closely with Finland and as they prepare for their chairmanship and as they take on the chairmanship Finland is a world leader in combined heat and power and energy efficient homes expertise that will greatly benefit the people of the Arctic but frankly also more globally as well taking a closer and more narrow look at the energy space scientific estimates of technically recoverable conventional oil and gas resources north of the Arctic Circle total approximately 13% of the world's undiscovered oil and about 30% of the world's undiscovered gas deposits with the rapid disappearance of sea ice these resources are becoming more available for development throughout the region however development in the Arctic is technically very complex as we've seen summer after summer after summer it's expensive and it must be conducted with the highest environmental standards to protect the very sensitive region and ecological region in this area in particular with oil prices as low as they are today these resources are unlikely to be developed in the near term but as any others have mentioned you also need to think about the midterm and the longer term with the predicted rise in prices as well at the moment the United States should take advantage of this quote low in activity if we want to call it that because of the low oil prices to continue to underscore the crucial consideration of environmental protection associated with offshore development and gas development we must ensure that the development will take place in a way that's keeping with our shared values in the region and recognizing the ecological importance of the resources there as well during this current visit the timing is terrific for this event Prime Minister Trudeau was just here meeting with President Obama and they announced to establish a quote Arctic class safety and environmental standards for commercial activities in their words and a quote we confirmed that commercial activities in the Arctic including shipping commercial fishing and oil and gas exploration and development should take scientific evidence traditional and local knowledge into consideration and should occur only with the highest safety standards and environmental standards are met and when in accord with indigenous rights and agreements end quote science based decision making and taking into account local and traditional knowledge will continue to be central to the U.S. Arctic policies and our programming while energy in the Arctic has traditionally meant fossil fuels there's a tremendous amount of renewable energy resources available and being explored today available and being explored at the moment as well that I really would like to highlight for our part the Energy Resources Bureau has taken a lead in developing programming to support clean energy access this is a priority the access part is quite a priority because many of the more remote Arctic communities are almost solely reliant on costly diesel generation for home heating, electricity transportation sustainable economic development in these communities is dependent on a diversification of energy resources and energy supply which would help improve access to clean reliable affordable energy resources as noted by Ambassador Kaupe black carbon is quite a major concern in the region both for what it happens in the Arctic but also from a human health perspective black carbon is generated often by diesel combustion in the Arctic and it speeds up melting and warming while this is a small source overall there's evidence to support that black carbon deposits are close to where they're generated also it contributes to this speeding up and these emissions have serious health impacts for Arctic residents as well finally there are about 200 off-grid diesel communities in Alaska 300 in Canada 70 in Greenland and likely 3000 in Russia in Arctic Russia this is a tremendous market for American businesses in the off-grid energy space whether it's renewables, smart grids, or energy efficiency we've also seen that local capacity building is essential to ensuring the success of clean energy micro grid projects in rural communities this is why the State Department has partnered with Finland, Canada the Gwichan Council International Iceland and the Alaska Center for Energy and Power to create what we call the Arctic Remote Energy Networks Academy known by the acronym ARENA which will bring stakeholders from each of the Arctic states, permanent participants to learn how to become clean energy champions and increase human capacity in the development operation and management of these other types of energy resources my department has also been developing an Arctic Clean Energy Business Plan prize in keeping with the White House directive to pursue innovative arrangements to engage public-private partnerships and stakeholders as well as promote youth entrepreneurship in a really important region this competition will seek out approaches from Arctic Nations youths for deploying clean energy technologies to reduce diesel use in home heating, electricity generation and particularly in remote communities we're also holding a series of workshops to bring together governments, the private sector communities, civil society academia, Indigenous peoples from Arctic countries that will highlight key challenges to consider while in pursuit of long-term sustainable hydrocarbon and mineral development in fragile environments such as the Arctic two of the workshops have been completed and the third is already being planned for the spring so as you can hear, as you can tell there's a lot of sort of on-the-ground work that's been happening already under our chairmanship and as part of our programming in the region and we're looking forward to doing a lot more later this year but that just to give you a quick flavor some of the concrete work that we're doing in the region to promote both the sustainable development of these hydrocarbon resources as well as promote access to the renewable energy technologies that are crucial for the sustainability of this region longer term. So thank you. Wonderful. Thank you very much. You mentioned the the importance of standards of setting some common guidelines for operations in the Arctic all sorts of commercial activity in the Arctic and I'm particularly curious about the case of oil because I think there's been a lot of curiosity about that with the U.S. cancelling a number of planned oil lease sales in the Arctic region with companies such as Shell downscaling some of their Arctic investment plans or freezing them entirely I'm curious what role the low oil price is playing in our conception of the Arctic as a future hub of commercial activity and whether it's it offers a bit of a wind to our sales or whether it offers a bit of headwinds in terms of promulgating new regulations, new guidelines, etc at a time when prices are so low and we seem to have a lull in activity how do you interpret the intersection between those two phenomena? Well as I mentioned the lull in these prices is giving us an opportunity frankly to pursue just a smarter and a much more strategic approach to the regulation in the region as we think about how to develop it and without the the fury to try to do it quickly we now have our time to really assess in a strategic fashion what we want to do in the region and how best to do it in addition, as Vester copy mentioned there's some geopolitics that are at play through the council or other types of these mechanisms and so we also created other mechanisms that really take some of the the politics out of the way and let the working level do the work that's needed to talk about development in the region one such of those mechanisms is called the Arctic Offshore Regulators Forum at the U.S. Department of Interiors participating in this regulators forum is a way to allow the working level and to talk about technical cooperation in the region as we think about standard setting and really just promote the responsible development in the region but we do as many of the market analysis show we do expect prices to increase at some point in the oil side and therefore we will expect some development to interest in development to come back online and so when that happens we want to be prepared with the right standards and with the right best practices in place so that we're not sort of behind the curve if you will as development starts to be explored. You mentioned some of those political sensitivities I would offer a question to the ambassadors which is that I think we all recognize that a sustainable Arctic and a prosperous Arctic is simply not feasible without a peaceful Arctic and so security cooperation and the broader security environment and rhetoric around the Arctic is very important going forward. Is it your sense that the Arctic Council in cooperation on the Arctic has been somewhat a victim of perhaps some of the tenuous dynamics between Russia and some of the other Arctic nations recently or is it instead a tool for improving that relationship on a very technical pragmatic basis? David, I would point out only that one of the premises of the Arctic Council in its current activities has been that cooperation and collaboration as among the eight member states is to go forward unaffected by the tensions which we all acknowledge exist geostrategically in various regions around the world but it is imperative that insofar as the Arctic is concerned that this dialogue continue that collaboration continues and I fully anticipate that we can expect full cooperation from all members including Russia throughout the remainder of our chairmanship and into the Finnish chairmanship beginning in April of 2017. I certainly agree I don't think the cooperation has been a victim of what is happening in the geopolitical sphere it is very important to sort of make the case that this is something that we have to continue and that we have a long term common interest and as I said in the beginning of my remarks it is a global interest to have this cooperation the Arctic as such has been a region of low tension and there is no need for that to change I think we all would prefer that it continues to be a region geographically region of low tension as far as the Arctic Council is concerned quite a few of the activities that we have there are related to security but of course security is a broad concept it is not limited at all to military security and of course in the Arctic Council we are not talking about military issues but there are many many other aspects to security that can be addressed like of course search and rescue and so on and so forth so I think we are in a pretty good shape as far as that particular aspect is concerned and hopefully it continues in the same manner There was a recent piece that I liked very much that talked about the way that the Arctic was becoming interlinked with different global processes and of course the most salient example of that is in physical climate change it offers a number of global goods that I think many of us don't recognize or take for granted a bit too much which is of course the storage of ice the storage of carbon the albedo effect that it offers is the ability to manage the stability of the global climate and as it was kind of poignantly summarized the future of the Arctic is not the future of the Arctic the future of the Arctic is the future of Miami the future of the Arctic is the future of so many low lying cities on our coasts it's of so much property and global assets that are at risk in a world in which climate change is not managed and then by the same token the Arctic is also increasingly interlinked with our global governance processes with global politics with the rise of the rest if you will and one thing we haven't really mentioned thus far is the role of observer states I wonder when you see the proliferation of applications in recent years for observers from China to Japan to Singapore to India all expressing interest in having some sort of formal role in the Arctic Council and in addition with the European Union's own application as an observer member still pending how will Finland likely approach the question of observers in the Arctic Council and what might we expect next year well it is very welcome that there are all the different countries that are already observers in the Arctic Council so many more want to gain that status the issue of observer status in the Arctic Council is a little bit tricky in the sense that as you mentioned the European Union has applied for that status and we consider that very important it would be European Union is a global there are a lot of resources that the European Union can mobilize for the benefit of the Arctic and so on and so forth the observer status of the European Union is blocked at the moment by Russia and so we will have to see how things develop and of course it is now the US Germanship which is sounding out on this issue and we'll I'm sure come up with some kind of an approach before the ministerial meeting next year but in general I think it is important to note that it's very positive that there is interest in countries to join the Arctic Council as observers the observers do have a role and then how do we get in the new observers that is a work in progress there is also the consideration I think that we have to acknowledge which is that the Arctic Council is a working tool for collaboration as among the eight nations in the world which have real estate north of the Arctic Circle the issues which are addressed within the Arctic Council are indeed of interest to the entire world for the reasons that we've mentioned but attention also needs to be paid to the simple workability of the instrument and there is some concern that by reaching out to include stakeholders well beyond the circle of the member nations themselves and of the indigenous peoples represented within the Arctic Council there may be a dilution of the effectiveness of the instrument for the achievement of the ends that are being pursued I know we have a number of questions out there so I'm going to go out to the audience for about 10 or 15 minutes to collect some questions I would ask that they are questions if I'll allow you a little one opening sentence but if they exceed more than two sentences I'm going to hurry you along and ask for the question mark to come soon so yes, the gentleman at the back we're going to take four at a time so we'll come around we'll take the gentleman at the back the woman up front and then we'll go around to this side, yes My name is Amit Pandya you've all referred to the decline in oil prices and how that affects the sense of opportunity in the Arctic I think it best note that there's been a parallel decline in the state of the maritime industry rates that are below the carrying costs massive over investment massive over capacity in the maritime industry so I think that we do need to as we're thinking about the opportunity in the Arctic two factors and see really how how very crippled they are at the moment and that should affect our calculations but that relates to my question which actually goes back to the question of Russia's role because Russia clearly has made a different bet on both those industries clearly has a different long-term view about the value of oil and gas exploration and of maritime commerce in the Arctic so quite apart from the security rivalries, the geostrategic considerations behind the possibility of Russian lack of cooperation, isn't there also a real challenge in the governance of the Arctic Council from the fact that Russia really has quite a divergent sense of its economic interests from the sense that the rest of the members of the council are really good, thank you and many up here, yes Thank you very much for our fascinating panel my name is Esther Brimmer now at George Washington University and former assistant secretary of state for international organizations so I'm going to ask you the governance question also about the Arctic Council indeed the phenomenon you describe of more countries wanting to be part of a previously more focused international organization is a trend to see generally more countries want to be part of the governance of our global spaces could you comment a bit more about the long-term governance within the Arctic Council the relationship you've touched on observers but one could imagine that this could become an even more difficult phenomenon to manage and just what will be the continued leadership role of the initial countries relative to the new members and how we see the future in that area, thank you Excellent, these were such model questions and they're so rich in their implications that we're actually going to take a break and I think tap into them right now let's pull on those threads, the first one the parallel decline in the state of the maritime industry the stress is there along with oil but of course the role of Russia the challenge of Russia, the second one being long-term governance in the Arctic Council As to the first question pertaining to maritime overcapacity and declining rates this clearly is a reality in the maritime industry currently but both are both that and the decline in oil and gas exploration activity are direct functions of a world recovery from an economic crisis in 2008 and we're we're not really back to full-scale activity at the moment and it may take some time that is not to say however that we have any different sense than does Russia as to the long-term interest of the Arctic regionally as a focus for economic and commercial development to the contrary I think that we share the same vision Russia is very heavily invested in the development of port facilities along the perimeter of the Russian Arctic coast as also it is in the reinforcement of infrastructure and that is indeed continuing on debated notwithstanding the current economic decline affecting economic activity in the region and among the member states of the Arctic Council that to my mind doesn't signify any divergence of view the reality is that the Arctic as a zone of economic activity is not dependent upon oil and gas exploration we referred earlier to the opening of maritime passages the northern passage from Europe to Asia cutting 14 days off the maritime transit time potentially opening the avenue to billions of dollars in economies in transit costs this is to a reality which is going to provide a boost to my mind to maritime activity to maritime rates will deal with the issue of economic capacity so that really this is a long term economic projection in which all of the members of the Arctic Council ourselves Finland Canada and the rest including Russia have a shared vision I would agree with that I I don't know that the fact that the sort of the economic time perspective is a little bit different in different countries would have had an impact on our work in the Arctic Council I know that also the Russian plans have been impacted by the economic downturn in Russia and of course the oil prices but interestingly enough I believe that that there is for instance Chinese investment in the Russian Arctic and China of course has a very long term perspective and has maybe more sort of is not that dependent on the fluctuations in the market and that brings me to the other question about the observers in the Arctic Council of course when the number of observers grows there is a challenge there but from the point of view of the Arctic Council member states it is clear that we are in the key role, the eight of us the Arctic Council are the eight members and also isn't it better to have those countries who are interested in the Arctic and whose activities have an impact in the Arctic isn't it better to have them in the Arctic Council as observers because at least they are somehow linked to a process and forum where the Arctic Councils are in a decisive role so I think this is a good development there are challenges there but I think we can manage it just to pick up the last thread following on what Ambassador Kapi talked about and the observers and the Finland's view on the observer piece of it on the long-term governance component as the Arctic eight and with the permanent participants as well as the expanding observers it's really important, as we mentioned it's a consensus body which has been really successful in ensuring collaborative uniformity we've passed agreements collectively through the Arctic Council on shipping and environmental standards which is frankly voluntary standards but it shows a cohesiveness integration, professionalism even as times when things are challenging with Russia they are participating because there's a shared interest frankly in the region whether it's economic or is one question commented maybe divergent but the end is the same which is an interest in the region whether or not the reasons for it may be seemingly different although not very different when you peel back some of the layers and so as we think more long-term about the governance of the council itself and our chairmanship calling our chairmanship title the shared Arctic common challenges responsibilities, opportunities as you may remember you can imagine how many meetings we may have had defining the title of our chairmanship and what words, what order let's just say it was not coincidence that that was done in the way it was and something so simple took quite such a long time but the reason why I really thought about from a long-term perspective how do we collectively grow the professionalism of the council to showcase that this non- sort of international body per se but this collaborative institution this collaborative body is effective of actually moving the region forward is effective at actually showcasing change and showcasing a mechanism that works frankly you know I think that in this era of growing multilateral organizations and multilateralism showing confidence-building mechanisms that showcase that we could actually get multilateralism done well and done right and effectively is really important and now with the growing interest of observer states I think it's a real test to see how observer states not only are simply observers a one-way conversation but how that's a two-way conversation how observers are actually voluntarily they're under no obligation to do anything at their contribution to the Arctic and how they're finding value in the conversations that we're having through the council and how do you continue to foster that through the US chairmanship as David made it so clear we wanted to showcase at least in the US perspective why the lower 48 should care and more broadly why the rest of the world should care about what's happening in the Arctic and the way to do that is to showcase us as a strong body a confident mechanism that's getting things done that's effective in ensuring sort of global security because of what the decisions we're taking and I use security in the not hard security sense obviously but in the more of the kind of environmental conservation and that side of the house but that's a quick response to some of the longer-term challenges we see but the strength of the body is continuing to have and showcase through our chairmanship and hopefully continue through Finland's Let's take a few more questions a couple from this side, yes we have another young lady back there woman over here and then we'll go through her for one more round I'm with Tural Law School I have a specific question regarding the reconciliation of the interests economic interests and the protection of indigenous people based on the concept of governance since there is a revolutionary change and the understanding of the world order since Paris of December 2015 where stewardship economy and not the idea that the Earth is where the plenitude of human interest there is this governance in Europe versus other regional powers that is completely different from the United States or from Russia which means that the interest of climate change in terms of a cap of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 230 and with the knowledge that oil only so much oil can be taken out of the ground to be burned that the governance issue puts a band on oil exploration on oil drilling because we would be then violating that normative goal of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius and we would be violating the very principle of human security which is the only intergovernmental agency in the world that has this as its primary to protect those people so the question is about the reconciliation of the mandates of human security stopping climate change, the hard limits there and then this economic interest, very good, thank you yes, young lady thank you, Patricia Shuker and your journalist in Washington I'd like to push for the first question that I was asked about Russia but for more an investment standpoint so Russia made territorial claims in Denmark, a NATO country made directly disputed Russia's claim to the recent territory so now does this scare people away when they see this territorial dispute based upon the volatility of the composition of the Arctic Council as Russia is the only non-NATO state in that so how does this affect the market when it comes to the future of the energy sector and the Arctic thank you very much next question over here Caitlin Atram rule of law committee for the ocean the state of Alaska response to President Obama's Arctic statement was somewhat underwhelming for lack of engagement of the state officials by contrast on Wednesday the Russian Arctic Development Commission announced that they would be devolving some of the responsibilities to eight economic regions now the Eurobearance process has been very good at engaging sub-national levels of governance in Arctic policy development what can we do to give Alaska more engagement at the international level as opposed to feeling that they have to have everything filtered through whatever policies are predominant in Washington at the time and how does that reflect with Russia's engagement of its regions you see that having any impact on Russia's Arctic development policy good and interesting questions all take the first swing at one of these three I can offer one or two comments firstly as to the reconciliation between the imperatives of controlling climate change and on the one hand and oil and gas activity on the other the fact is that oil and gas exploration and extraction is a minute portion of what potentially would be economic and commercial development in the Arctic it is not indispensable that there be ongoing oil and gas activity in the Arctic in order for economic development to go forward in the interest of indigenous peoples and in the interest of precisely the kind of stability that we're seeking to bring about I can give you any number of examples of economic activity unrelated to oil and gas which are even as we speak bringing progress in economic development to indigenous peoples of the Arctic region there are even wider implications in terms of transport and communication throughout the region one random example Finnair is currently examining the sustainability of a direct air link between Helsinki and Fairbanks, Alaska because of the likelihood of there being increasing traffic between those two regions now currently it takes about 26 hours to fly from Helsinki to New York to San Francisco to Seattle to either Fairbanks or Anchorage as the crow flies it takes five and a half hours to fly from Helsinki to Fairbanks over the pole there is a route by the way that currently exists Helsinki to Reykjavik Reykjavik to Fairbanks taking advantage of the same semi-direct route over the pole I fully believe that this is going to become a reality it's going to become part of Finnair's business plan to take advantage of Finland's geographic location as being the shortest route from Asia to Europe and the shortest route from northern Europe to Alaska this will in itself generate further economic and commercial activity having nothing to do with oil and gas so that I think it's a mistake to conflate the idea of oil and gas exploration and extraction on the one hand and the progress in the fight against climate change these are not necessarily mutually incompatible one quick word on the territorial claims by the way what's important in respect of territorial claims we're now talking about claims to the extension of the continental shelf undersea all of these claims including the Russian claim are being dealt with in accordance with due process of international law through the commission that has been established to that precise end to the contrary this to my mind is a positive development reflecting a consensus that issues of the delimitation of the continental shelf in the Arctic will go forward through a mechanism which is peaceful which is directed towards the rule of law and as to which all of the member states are in unanimous agreement with I agree very much as far as the territorial claims are concerned and there of course we have the UN convention and even if the US is not so far a member of the convention it's following the principles and rules of the convention we of course hope that the US would join as quickly as possible it would strengthen the notion that you do have strong international rules to settle these kind of disputes which is I think very much in everybody's interest as far as the oil extraction is concerned of course energy policy as such is not at all in the remit of the Arctic Council it's national competition as far as the European Union is concerned we have in the European Union very strong policies related to how we want to shape our energy portfolios and energy production, energy efficiency and there's certainly the objectives at the European Union level are very very ambitious and aiming exactly to reducing the dependency on fossil fuels so I think we are doing a lot of things but certainly there is it's a very good question as far as the Alaska question and sort of whether there is something in the Barents Euro Arctic Council model that could be of relevance it's too difficult a question for me I really don't have an answer except to say that the Barents Euro Arctic Council is interesting it's not huge in scale but it's locally very interesting and useful, very pragmatic and there by the way Finland was the chair until I think October last year and Russia is now the chair and has been very very committed to this cooperation it's again one indication that also Russia sees this kind of cooperation as a long-term issue where the common interests way more than the differences and I'll just comment I'm two-fold as Katelyn knows really well she helped us when we were in the Senate try to move forward with the modification of the law to sea and I'm sure she's still hard at work trying to bring that back on the Alaska question and unfortunately we don't have Admiral Papp here who is our senior representative in the lead to the Arctic Council so I will be wearing previous to my current position I had worked for the Secretary in his policy planning office and I have a quick response to that and I also look to one of my colleagues here Hillary in the audience who also works for Admiral Papp and has a much more detailed answer but it's my understanding that would be in the Alaska side of the house we actually have various processes underway and already in place actually that incorporates and that includes the Alaskan delegation both at the state level as well as elsewhere to really provide input and real time into the policy and the policy shaping process one of those is the Arctic, the AES the Arctic Steering Committee or the Arctic Executive Steering Committee where Alaska is part of that discussion and I know that we mentioned that earlier that the President created this mechanism but Alaska is actually part of that steering committee if I'm correct and they participate in some of those discussions so that's one way that we've been trying to reach out and embrace the Alaskan delegation and part of that the policy formation process that we're thinking about in the interest of, I know we have remaining perhaps one quick question back there and then we're going to have to wrap things up so one sentence or less please Hi, I'm Erin Roberts and I'm from the U.S. chairmanship team with Hillary and Melanie and everyone I just wanted to point out a little factoid that I did an informal count at our last senior Arctic official meeting in October in Anchorage and we probably between staff members like myself, our U.S. delegation and our permanent participants and I tried to look up the actual number but my Black Gray doesn't have service I think we probably had 30 or 40 of those of that group that I just said and 50% of those were Alaska so we had at least the indigenous people represented through the ICC, the Arctic at the Basking Council staff, we have a number of staff members from Alaska at the State Department and our delegation had a lot of Alaskans on it I don't have exact numbers so there is at least 50% of those Americans involved in the last Arctic Council meeting in Anchorage were Alaska so there's definitely a large participation in the Arctic Council side of things, thanks. Wonderful thank you very much to respect not only the time of our distinguished speakers but also your own time will end here today I would actually encourage you Carnegie's Twitter feed is at Carnegie and Dow, at Carnegie and Dow please tweet at us any remaining questions you have, ideas you have things you were not able to say we welcome your comments and input after this meeting ends and if there are three major takeaways from today that I heard I think it's that number one the United States is an Arctic nation number two we can lead not only with principles but with our pragmatism and number three that we cannot do it alone and that no systemic progress will happen without indispensable partners such as Finland never more prominently than in 2017 as it assumes its Arctic Chair. Thank you please join me in thanking our distinguished speakers and guests have a wonderful weekend and what we know already through our academic we know


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