This is Think Tech Hawaii, Community Matters here. Hey, Aloha, and welcome to Stand Energy Man. On Think Tech Hawaii, we're Community Matters. Thanks again to Rachel and Ryan last week for filling in for me while I was on the NTE with my wife, taking care of some family matters. And unfortunately, the trip wasn't long enough to improve my fringe, but it was long enough for me to get too much sun and eat too much good Polynesian food. So it's been 30 years since I was in French Polynesia, and things have certainly changed, but the natural beauty and the wonderful people are still amazing. So being in Tahiti slowed me down a little bit, but it didn't stop me from thinking about hydrogen. And while meditating on the irony of how much sense hydrogen makes versus how little traction it's getting, even among the most hardcore tree huggers and climate change components, I think I've sorted out some of the core issues. Everyone is gravitating to batteries to store energy, even when the National Lab studies all say that batteries are not economically feasible or sustainable in many of the applications are being considered for now. All the major automakers are in production or moving to be in production and have made huge capital investments to be in production for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, but the gas and oil industries are not moving at all in the hydrogen direction. Why? In the Air Force, we used to say if it's not broken, don't fix it. And I've concluded that that's the key that I was searching for. The auto industry and engine manufacturers are trying to meet strict federal mandates to reduce particulate and greenhouse gas emissions. And they have concluded that electric vehicles are the future. But there is no such issue on the fuel side. And the first fuel substitute, that meaning batteries, are struggling even to get their infrastructure in place to support their vehicles, even though Tesla and others are pushing hard. So in a sense, the current truck makers are the only ones moving towards clean transportation, but the fuel companies aren't. The oil and natural gas industries see nothing broken, while the car makers know that they need to make some clean electric vehicles or they will not be able to sell cars at all and they're not too distant future. So they have something that will soon be broken if they don't fix it.  But the natural gas industry is investing in CNG and LNG and oil companies know that they'll be providing gas and diesel for vehicles for years to come. So nothing's broken with them. So today I offer you a challenge. How do we make the oil and gas industries see that they need to manage their future now? How do we show them that they are broken even if they don't see it? Maybe if we take away all the government incentives, the tax breaks and other subsidies that they have, they would be broken and they would for sure be looking for clean solutions. Anyway, send me your suggestions, we'll see what we can do. My guest today is Skyping in from the soon to be frozen Tundra of North America and he is one of the warriors familiar with the if it's not broken concept, don't fix a concept. And he gives advice to a lot of folks to keep them making good energy decisions. So welcome to Gary White, founder and CEO of Blackstart. For those of you that are not familiar with the term Blackstart, Blackstart is the electrical utility that is faced with a large portion of its grid dropping off of the line and the challenges it faces bringing that power back online. So welcome Gary White, recent retiree from the Air Force Reserves and energy expert that was given advice to the Pentagon. Glad to have you on board, Gary. Glad you could join us today. Well, thanks, Stan. I appreciate that and glad to be here. I wore this Hawaiian shirt on a Friday afternoon in DC for you. Makes me feel warm just wearing it. I appreciate it. It's a lot of Friday everywhere. So give us an idea of how you got interested in doing energy things and what has drive in your train in terms of getting out of the active duty, you know, you weren't always on active duty, but the last assignment you had on activity was very energy intensive. And what kind of got you headed down that road and starting your own company regarding energy? Yeah, that's a great question. And my story is a little, a little strange. It's not the normal, but that's good, which has led to a lot of innovative thinking and how I ended up coming up with the Black Star innovation concept. So as you know, I had active duty time and then I switched into reserves and I had various assignments. But bottom line is I'm an acquisition guy by trade. I started out as a flyer crossed into this world of purchasing everything from satellite systems to other complex, four-mil-prace sales, command and control equipment for the Air Force. And my career kind of went on as an acquirer and program manager. And then I had this unique opportunity to enter the energy world. And it was the first time since I left the flying world that I truly found a passion behind what I was doing. I felt that like it was not only giving back to the Air Force and doing a great service for our national security, but also for the nation at large from an economic perspective, from bettering the climate and the environment. So there were a lot of pluses behind it and it was quick and easy for me to get behind. And then I was put into a very interesting position, as you mentioned, working with the Pentagon or the Pentagon as the number two guy focused on our installation energy security, which kind of dovetailed into a previous assignment I had where I was senior advisor to the director of security for all of our installations across the DOD within the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence office. So they kind of dovetailed because the reality is it's all about security of our installations from the military perspective, regardless of what that is, whether it's somebody who's physically attacking it or it's a threat to the energy that supplies all of our missions, the ability to function. So it was kind of a good fit for me, even though I didn't have a traditional background in energy, I was able to quickly step in from that more operational national security perspective and easily take over that mission. And so I did almost two years there doing that effort and we had a lot of creative projects that we were working on. One of the things I quickly realized was we had such a heavy proportion of our work focused on large scale generations at our installations. And so we're talking about putting in large scale utility scales or 10 megawatts or greater solar fields. We were looking at wind turbines, of course, as a source of distributive generation of the installations and other means, but we really weren't emphasizing a whole lot on other types of technology that could really supplement that generation. A lot of the big benefit to generation ended up in my mind at least, still focusing on cost savings and efficiencies that way. And that's great. And that's a big piece of the puzzle, but there's still a lot of other pieces involved. And I would attribute that perspective, if I can interrupt there. You mentioned you came from an operational background and I think that is really a key piece that most people even inside the Air Force don't understand. A lot of folks in the Air Force kind of get stove piped in acquisition or maintenance or some other field, but even the maintenance world deploys, when you've been in an operational unit for a good portion of your career, you have a different perspective. You're not just into what makes a dollars and cents thing, but what makes the mission happen? And that's the kind of perspective, I think makes it great for a guy like you to show up and take the career path you did because like you, I had an operational background, but then I went off into plans and policy and things like that and having that operational background makes a huge difference when you're trying to help the Air Force see the future. So I think that's part of what makes your super sauce work. Yeah, absolutely. You know, if you really think about it, it's the perspective of you or the end user at one point and everybody else is working to supply something to the end users that you come in really with that perspective of what works in the field, what doesn't, and that's not just military. I think that could be applied to many other industries as well. It's really understanding what the end result truly needs to be from somebody who's utilized it. And certainly I think that's unique. And you know, my two cents on that really is I think almost everybody in a support position, you know, not necessarily needs to be tip of the spear at some point, but you know, if there's some kind of additional duty you could do for a couple of years that gives you that insight. I think that's truly invaluable, absolutely. Great. So your company, now that you've kind of separated from the military world and you're off on your own, what kind of things are you up to? We're up to everything. So yeah, so going back to what I was kind of saying, you know, I noticed a lot of pieces were missing to this big, you know, energy security, energy resiliency during installation puzzle. And a large proportion of that were technologies and projects that could potentially supplement the large scale generation stuff that we were really heavily focused on. And so when I separated or retired now, then I started my own company, Blackstar Innovation, and we're an innovation and energy resiliency focused consultancy firm. Now, what does that mean? You know, we have sort of three levels of effort right now that we're focused on and it's quite exciting stuff. One is you have a lot of interesting entities right now within the Air Force and the Department of Defense at large that are focused on innovation, right? And which is really just coming up with new ideas. But you know, these different organizations and internal incubator programs that are being set up and things like that are really focused largely on educational related programs, which is great, you know, understanding how Silicon Valley works, how things are rapidly acquired and deployed and things of that nature. That's fantastic and that's good from a human capital perspective and maybe slowly changing the acquisition system. But ultimately, they're really not focused on solutions in my mind. So, you know, a lot of these programs also in addition to the education, they focus on problems and that's great. You can work for months and years even and you can fine tune a problem. But if you're not also working or spending that same amount of effort on the problem as you are in identifying which solution areas will work in a given climate or a given region or whatever based on different factors like economics, politics, what have you, then it's almost all for naught, right? And an example of that is when we were with the Office of Energy Assurance, we would often case these large scale generation projects and we would say, you know, we'd like to have a microgrid tied into that deal somehow, which is the ability to island off from the main grid to have your own generation capability right at the source basically. And so the companies that we were relying on to do this work because we were trying to do things third party finance, we'd come back and say, well, you know, it's just not ripe in the market basically, right, that's not going to pencil out on paper. And then you know, throwing my operational hat on, you know, my mission hat that I wore at the beginning of the Air Force time, you know, I'm saying, well, that doesn't make any sense. How can I turn to that mission owner now and say, sorry, that doesn't work in the market right now? I'll get back to you in a couple of years. That didn't sit well with me, right? It didn't sit well with the general, I'm just saying on again, within Blackstar innovation, is that problem alone? So it's taking these identified problems. Acting is sort of, I use the metaphor of like a talent scalper and baseball team. So going out there, searching the nontraditional players that the Department of Defense typically isn't looking at and then saying, okay, you have a really interesting technology and bringing that back into our partners within defense and saying, look what we've found for you, there's something that could answer the problem here and let's figure out a way, which we have, to go forward and acquire this. So that's one service area. So sort of acting like a talent scout for the DOD in the middle. And the other half of that really, you know, not looking at from a defense perspective, is towards industry. There are a lot of companies, big and small, but particularly small, that one, don't understand the problems of the Defense Department or what they're looking for. And they don't understand that there are opportunities to get unique type of funding into their companies quickly. And there are a lot of companies that would love to do business with defense who have relied strictly on venture capital as one example of funding. And the problem with venture capital to them is they're under extreme pressure to get things done quickly. And so that brings the level of quality of their product down. The Defense Department typically does not provide or does not apply that kind of pressure based on their money because they're not requiring return.  So it's really a unique opportunity for companies to come in, serve their country in reality by solving a national security problem or helping to solve one. And then leveraging unique funding. So we're going out there and we're educating these companies as well. We're serving a sort of consultants to them to help them not only understand the opportunities that are out there, help them commercialize their products towards the Defense Department and the federal government is at large. And then also working with them on how they market that. So a lot of these firms are very engineer heavy. Even sometimes I have a current client right now, Prime Solutions Group, and they're fantastic. And they have hired us to help them market and commercialize their product into the Department of Defense. They have a product where they go through big data, internet of things approach to gather basically sensor data from every piece of energy equipment that you would have in an area, region and installation and then visualize that data into a nice management dashboard that someone can make a decision off of from a management level. And that's something that's just an example of something that we're working to bring to defense. Yeah. And I find that's really common in what we do here in our office is bring the military perspective not only to the potential user, AFRAL, but also to the contractors and even the state of Hawaii and show them where the technology applies in their particular application. An example would be when I first worked with US hybrid I asked them what their appeal was to their equipment to the Air Force. And the CEO said, oh, our equipment's clean and green. And I said, the Air Force doesn't care if it's clean and green. It'll help them check a box off for the EPA or something, but it's also expensive. So how do I sell the Air Force your equipment when it's expensive and all it's doing is checking off a box for an issue that the Air Force has. And the answer I told them was your equipment is silent. That's important to the military. Your equipment has no heat signature. That's important to the military. Your equipment's scalable and can deploy. That's important to the military. Your equipment doesn't put off any kind of noxious fumes and you can operate it inside and in closed space. That's important to the military. Your equipment, the exhaust kicks out water. That's important to the military. And those kind of things are really critical. And so I think you're in a great market. You know, right now we're gonna take a quick break and we'll be right back with Gary and he's gonna tell some of his, about some of his projects that he's got going on around the world. I'm Helen Dora Hayden, the host of Voice of the Veteran. Seen here live every Thursday afternoon at one PM on Think Tech Hawaii. As a fellow veteran and veterans advocate with over 23 years experience serving veterans, active duty and family members, I hope to educate everyone on benefits and accessibility services by inviting professionals in the field to appear on the show. In addition, I hope to plan on inviting guest veterans to talk about their concerns and possibly offer solutions. As we navigate and work together through issues we can all benefit. Please join me every Thursday at one PM for the Voice of the Veteran. Aloha. Planning all week for the day of the big game. Watching at home just doesn't feel the same. Put on the list is who's gonna drive. It's nice to know you're gonna get home alive. Plan for fun and responsibility. Choose the DD. Captain of our team. It's the DD. For every game day, a sign a designated driver. When I was in the Air Force, I was always a designated driver because I was always gonna be the one getting in trouble. So I forgot I might as well just drive. Anyway, we're back with Gary White from Black Start and he was talking a little bit about making that connection between the technology and the user more so than just the economic equation that so many people are focused on today to make decisions. And I know that when Gary was working with the Air Force, one of the things he started was what they call a Jedi program. So Gary, why don't you tell us a little bit of how it started there and how you've kind of pulled that into what you're doing now. Right, so yeah, the Jedi lab was pretty exciting and it's something that's still ongoing. And what Jedi stands for is the Joint Energy Development Demonstration and Innovation Lab. Some folks told me, hey, NREL, the National Renewable Energy Lab already has a Jedi software application. I said no problem, I added a D and lowercase the I so I think we're good there. But anyway, no, Jedi's basically a governance mechanism. One of the things I first saw was nobody's talking across departments, nobody's talking across services and a lot of us have the same energy problems. So, as you can imagine as Director of Innovation, I was going around and talking with everybody I could possibly talk to, figuring out what they're working on, what new technologies and so forth. And I often found that we had the same problems that a lot of times we were even looking at the same technologies and we were doubling up on our spending on those. I thought, well, that's kind of pointless. We shall get together in a room and talk. So, really nothing cosmic that I came up with in reality, it's just sort of the basic basics of, hey guys, let's get together and get on the same page here and maybe we can join forces and leverage money across funding streams. So, Jedi was stood up and one of the thoughts was, let's take an ecosystem approach with this. Now, what does that mean? That means that I want you to imagine like a Silicon Valley or imagine Route 128 up in Boston, Cambridge area. Now, take those and apply those out wherever we want, right? Maybe a rural area that doesn't have a lot of the resources that those areas already have. How would we build one? How would we develop our own regional hubs, regional ecosystems to address the problems that we have on our installation? And so that was ongoing and I came up with some interesting designs there and that's something that we're focused on now as well with Black Star Innovation. That's sort of one of our central offerings is ecosystem design around energy innovation. So, we've designed a concept in Alaska and we're engaging with some folks to try and build that out right now. And we've come with a unique approach where you would source problems initially within the department, but then also out in the community. As you can imagine, there are a lot of emergency management services that have similar problems and similar opportunities that they see as well to separate off from the grid and have a distributed generation asset and microgrid setup, but not just emergency management. You think about small communities that don't have a backup. Some communities aren't even on the grid at all and they already have a basic quote unquote microgrid but they could use something more advanced. And so my process starts out with dual sourcing the problems and then down selecting those to ones that make sense in the market, as I mentioned before, pairing against that and then running that through the local chamber of commons yet in my development council, leveraging startup incubator and accelerator programs that not only might already have small technology companies that we can rapidly acquire prototypes from, but also programs that are willing to reach out to the wider community and say, hey, are you interested in solving a problem that your community has? Maybe you have technologists out there that have or other folks in our disciplinary that have unique skill sets that they can come in, bring to the table, whether they form their own company or join another company that's already established, they can help solve the problem by bringing resources in locally. Part of what that does as well is it reduces logistical burden, right? And so you're also leveraging the power of the Economic Development Council's funding outreach. So there are a lot of folks within different communities that in terms of venture capitalists, angel investors, those kinds of folks and then also interesting banking scenarios, so green banks, things of that nature. And then they also have the ability to reach out to different types of defense funding at that point. So when you get to that point, that might attract other folks with money or maybe folks within the Department of Energy to bring some of their resources. As an example, the National Renewable Energy Lab has an innovation program where if you come to them with a problem, whether it's another federal entity and they'll pair with a local community or a company, they'll chip in up to $175,000 of their money and resources in terms of people and experts and maybe even some lab space for you to work through. Then you take that all the way through this cycle, you start to create a prototype, you get it out into the field and test it, but then you've got a unique scenario here. You could potentially take resources on a military installation. And of course, I'm always gonna come back to military because that's my focus, that's my background. You could take these resources in terms of personnel, maybe either A, wanna contribute something to the local community or B, they have to meet a training requirement. And you could use these folks to take that prototype into the local field to train the trainer type scenario that you can have an application applied towards the base and out into the community. And then once you test that a few times, you iterate on it, you can actually get something that grows a little bit, it'll attract more capital, it can be commercialized both ways. And then you have a solution that now can be procured in a traditional means at a large scale within the department, but now out in society. And you've reduced the cost because you've obviously leveraged training resources and things of that nature. That's a basic scenario, but that's something that we're heavily working on and getting folks to try and adopt and get involved in the local community. That's a great model. And I think that application of the term ecosystem with this problem set is important because what we're finding is so many times, the things that are problems out in the community or in the military, they're identified in silos, but when you start solving them with the process you just described, they start seeing that there's a solution for this energy situation that also solves other problems or there's a logistics piece that can be made more efficient if you apply the energy piece to it. And when you start making those connections, you've got a much broader area of support from the customer.  So I think your model is spot on. So are there any specifics you can talk about with any of your projects you got going on right now that you can use for a good example? I'd rather not get into individual project specifics, but we can talk about certain areas that we're working with. Two particular applications, one I just wanna mention, something that you could do in a rural area, again, like Alaska, that's something you could, from a defense perspective, that's something you could replicate or at least test out and model there that you could take out into the field. So when you work in a remote area, whether it's in the desert or it's in somewhere in the Pacific, let's say, and you're in a wartime scenario, you have to work with the locals. I did that in Iraq, I was in Northern Iraq and I had to work with the local Iraqis, the Kurds, to do some airfield construction projects. I didn't think I'd be that involved with them, but maybe just a little bit on the side, but they were the ones really running the project. And so you have to learn their system and how that works, and you have to leverage their field sets which are different, unique, but also valuable, of course. And they're just unique scenarios. You really have to work in this sort of robust environment that sort of breeds innovation. And I think that's a benefit you could replicate it out. Now, to talk another somewhat specific Buffalo, let's talk about Buffalo, New York, right? You have, for example, a reserve base there, Niagara Reserve base. You also have a community in the Rust Belt that is struggling to reinvent itself. The economy has taken a downturn in that review and folks traditionally who are working in mines and brown energy field, they're trying to find new ways to contribute, particularly energy, because they've been in that world for quite a while, just from a different perspective. This serves as a real opportunity now from an ecosystem approach to take an area that has perhaps brown fields that can pass environmental standards. You can convert those over. You can use them to produce cleaner energy. And then you can train people from an economic development perspective to come in and have a new career, basically. And you can turn the economy around. New York is really great as an example because of course they're more advanced in their policy, like some other states like Hawaii and California, for example, that they're really trying to push for a larger balance of renewables and back at 50-50 split here coming up. So we are working with partners in the utility industry and folks within the local government in Buffalo and the base to try and figure out a way forward for an economic or an innovation ecosystem approach to solving the energy needs at the installation and then also solving the needs out in the community from an economic perspective. I think that's a really good example of how this approach could be applied across the board. So it's not just energy, it's not just national security. It's also more of a localized economic approach. Great, well, we're gonna pass your name onto our state energy office, so maybe help them with their perspective on things. But believe it or not, Gary, we've bumped up against our final minute in our show today. I don't wanna thank you for bringing your perspective to energy planning and what your organization does to help make things happen, not just in the DOD, but in the civilian sector. So thanks for being on with us today. Thanks for wearing your loha shirt and commemoration of our great state here. And we look forward to working with you and maybe you can get out here sometime and be on the show live. I hope so. Thank you, Stan. It's been fun. Appreciate it. Okay, talk to you later. Thanks. Take care. And that's gonna wrap it up for Stan the Energy Man this Friday and thanks for being here on my lunch hour and we'll see you next Friday. Aloha.


Let me introduce Gerd very briefly and hand over to him. Gerd is a well-known futurist, author of five books. His background is in music and publishing. In 2006, the Wall Street journal referred to Gerd as one of the leading media futurists in the world. Gerd is a member of the Royal Society for the Arts here in London and he is a member of the tantalisingly named World Future Society. Felly, ydych chi'n gyfnod yn y bydd, Gerd. Thank you. Thank you very much. All right, so the future, I'll just switch my future machine on here. All right, good morning. It's a really great pleasure to be here. I was on vacation last week in Medeirfa hiking, being offline. Now this is the new luxury is going offline. So I was quite luxurious last week. So I run a company called the Futures Agency and this is sort of what we do. We listen to the future. There's no rocket science here. There's a Chinese saying that if you want to know about the future, I'll ask your children. And so that's what we do. We kind of look around three to five years from now all over the world to see if we can share four sides with our clients and our clients include many, many different kind of companies, media companies, technology companies and so on. I'm G Leonhard on Twitter. I have a new gizmo today called GerdCloud. If you're looking, if you're bored with the presentation, you can look up a network called GerdCloud. You can see it on the Wi-Fi. And just bring up any browser and type in password GerdCloud and you can access all of my presentations, my books. My latest book is called The Future of Content and it's free on GerdCloud. It's also free on the internet of course. So you can download it there or you can get the Kindle version. But basically just use GerdCloud if you want to download the presentation also afterwards. It's not currently on there because I changed it just a few minutes ago. I will put out the latest PDF later on and you can download it from GerdCloud. But only if you're not actually going to listen to what I have to say then you can play with the GerdCloud. All right, so first of all, of course, you know that data and connected to the internet is absolutely exploding. I mean if you're looking at this graph here from gest3.com, storage cost dropping, network access increasing, CPU cost dropping, bandwidth cost, I mean this is actually beyond Moore's law. I mean it's mind boggling. And this is happening on a global scale. The other 3 billion are coming online, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, at a very fast pace. Clearly we can expect a significant amount of disruption and innovation which is pretty much the same thing. This box, what was it called? What was it called? It's a medical device that analyzes what you do. The tricorder. It's becoming real now. There's a thing called the tricorder express. You can sneeze into this machine and you can prick your finger and it will do analysis of your health and supposedly beat a doctor in the analysis in terms of speed and accuracy, which is doubtful, I would say. I'll beat a lawyer for all cases. But that's becoming reality now. It's a disruption all over the place. And this is disruption in the television business with a company called Aerio. Here's how it works. Anyone can watch live broadcast TV for free off the air with an antenna. Aerio has taken that antenna and needed unbelievable small. Small enough that hundreds of thousands could fit in the single world where you can access them from the internet and watch live broadcast TV as it enters. They can choose the TV you want. This is Barry Diller's new project and he has already gotten sued for it, of course. Needless to say. He's in New York, putting all of regular television stations into your app and charging for it as well. So disruption is a new normal. There's a great report by the Economist on disruption and is listing a whole bunch of things about disruption. I mean, every single point of these cheap smartphones, business social networks, data mining, cloud computing, holographics, all that stuff, it's all happening now. This is all science fiction stuff from Cory Doctor of Novels. It's all real now. Pretty mind-boggling, all happening at the same time. So basically, I said this last year, you can either be disrupted or you can disrupt. Those are the choices. So if you're in the media business, you have to find a way to disrupt and add more value. So that's quite clearly a tall mission and we're having this what's called Solomo, social, local, mobile. It's a keyword used by Kleiner Perkins, investor in Twitter and Facebook. I would add the cloud to this. The world of social, local, local services, Foursquare and so on, mobile and the cloud. And this is becoming reality now for five billion people in the next three years. So a lot of things will dramatically change because of this if you're looking at the implementations of this. The future is already here if we are willing to accept it. And this is the key question, of course. Are we actually willing to look at the future and what it brings to us? Gadgets on television gestures. This is Siri showing you a way to remote control. Bring up the sound, please. Remote control, your television using Siri. This is a hack, of course. So these kind of devices, and this is automatic translation devices, you can speak in English and it comes out in Japanese. Imagine what this will do to media if you can speak in English and it comes out in Chinese or in German of all languages of whatever. This is going to happen in three years. And then there's people like us who are basically an older generation trying to make this work and we have issues like this. Unfortunately it's missing. So now we have our kids already being quite familiar with this new way of touching and making things work. iPad is very popular with kids, I'm not sure you know. Because it's easy to use. And then we have kids who are encountering something else. It is not the iPad and they're wondering why the magazine doesn't zoom. So I think you will find that this is becoming an attitude among digital natives. Why doesn't it work like this? And the answer is not to go back to them and say, please change your habits because it fits my business model. We can try but then we're going to end up like this guy on the left here who is struggling with technology and mistaken the iPad for a cutting board. Then we're sort of like this. We don't really know what the users are actually doing. I don't recommend you do this at home. But anyway, now we're entering a society to where all the screens are connected. All the screens including my wristwatch, my eyeglasses, my iris even, are all connected to the web. And basically people are expecting that we can engage with all these screens as the Intel Futures says. That we can basically say, okay, we can comment, we can rate, we can do all these things all the time. This is why we're doing the like button and all these things. And of course the key issue I said last year is the issue of control. Users want to have control over this. Of course on the other end of the equation receiving the urge of user control. We're not so happy with the user having control over what we do. Clearly that's an issue because business models are based to large degree on control. This is a real disparity that the user wants more control and we're willing to give less. In fact of course iTunes is the embodiment of that desire to have control back. I use it, but most people don't. It's not financially going to be the future for us. So there are lots of issues about this. Every screen is becoming some kind of connective television. Or radio. Every screen. Including the bus stop. Sending our Bluetooth promotions and all kinds of things. It's mind boggling. Rapid user experience changes that the Samsung television has motion control, where it can gesture, has voice control, has face recognition. The television recognizes your face. I mean think about the implementation of that in terms of privacy. So there's lots of stuff happening that is going to be quite different. If you're looking at what Lady Gaga has done it's completely use all these tools, social, local, mobile, all was on interactive real time, cross media, all those nice words. Actually put them to work. And build a whole career on connecting with her fans in this way. That is going to be a standard for filmmakers, for authors, for musicians in the future. So the question really is, are we willing to accept that our chess game is now three dimensional.  But there are rules. I mean if you know the rules and if you read the books you can beat the other guy. Simple as that is math really. But a three dimensional chess game is not math. It's basically the rules are off. And we're now in the same situation where our chess game is now ten dimensional. Not two dimensional. Not linear. Again going back to the control issue here. So this guy Bruno Latour says that if we change the instruments we will also change the social theory that goes with them. And that's what's happening right now. The social theory is also of course our business theory. This really comes down the same thing. If we're going to use Facebook Instagram, if we're going to use causes to donate money it changes the fabric of society. And therefore also of course of business. One key point here is that we're now living in a world where basically access is replacing ownership. We discussed this last year I think it's actually true now. And it wasn't hard to predict last year or ten years ago really. Access replacing ownership means for example music services in the cloud, health records in the cloud, education in the cloud. So think about what that means. Access not ownership is quite tough actually when you're looking at for example music here is a graph from e-market to US numbers. Digital track sales are flat not really going anywhere streaming and clicking on demand is increasing. So revenues by that is increasing but it's not enough of course it's not enough people doing it. We'll get to that in a second. But clearly the same thing is true for video if you're looking at these numbers online video viewers exploding. And you have sites like wire play of course the Amazon Kindle Netflix and next issue which is doing the Spotify of magazines same idea flat rate for magazines. All that stuff is happening. Our choice is again either we're part of this or we're not going to participate because we find it to be disruptive. I mean artists who are currently opting out of Spotify you have to wonder if next thing they're going to do is opt out of radio. This is the same issue really. So access not ownership this is really quite a challenge and of course because access is handled by telecom company ISPs and operators. Our partners in crime or not in crime rather in absorbing the spoiler in the future are the telecoms right. So there is going to be lots of overlap I call this telemedia and within three years we're going to have a complete telemedia environment to where telecoms and ISPs will essentially work with content owners to provide content in ways that are currently unheard of except for Spotify and possibly other services. But all telecoms will become media companies in the sense of being a platform for media not producing media. So there's a big topic here then of course the biggest problem here is that as the CEO of FT.com said in the Huffington Post the deep paradox is that publishers need to unpick is that even as revenues plummet and their faith is shaken demand for the product is higher than ever before. People love music, people love motion pictures, people love news but how do they pay? It's the one to ten rule basically. Whatever made a dollar offline makes ten cent online. So we have to refurbish 90 cents from somewhere. We have to generate new values and that's the mission right basically for the consumer access is cheaper. We can say that we hate this and obviously we do hate this. I mean that's quite clear. I would prefer if you would buy my book in a print version for $17 and not download it for free or for a dollar. But the reality is I can't go back. I can't tell people to buy a copy because that's a better deal for me. I can try and we have tried but it's not working. So basically here using the Einstein paradigm we cannot solve our problems with the same thing that we use when we created them and that's our reality. It's actually quite hopeful because I think what's happening here is that if you're looking at for example a news business this is a slide from my friend Ross Dawson in Australia he's talking about all the added values that are happening in the news business which is how people pay filtering, community, relevance, terminus, novelty interfaces, insights, design all that stuff that is extra value. This is why I like Flipboard for example because it offers me extra value. So the key question really is in this the value is built around the content. The value is not in the zeros and ones of the download. So when I download a movie then I have the value there's lots more value around what I do there. And Kevin Kelly calls these the new generatives and if you want to really know about this just google new generatives Kevin Kelly who's the founder of Wired and he's mentioned them for example immediacy, personalisation, immediacy is the key behind for example the Metropolitan Opera in New York is you can go to a movie theatre somewhere in Iowa and you can watch the opera remotely but you can be part of it remotely for ten dollars. And this is an added value rather than watching on television you go together in a theatre it's an approximation of the real thing. Metallica has all of the shows available for downloading that you can buy and actually you can subscribe to them. So I want to give you a short demo of this Let me see just one second here. It's a little bit technical but I'm sure you'd appreciate it so give this a try here. Using a fabulous screening app here. Okay. Alright so I'm going to show you here for example what happens when I use my iPhone using an app that adds value for example Spotify you can see for example the value behind Spotify is not the playlists which I have many of as you can see which I really like and I've filled up the maximum here for my ten euros. So quite interesting but the value of Spotify is not that it's these guys here my Facebook friends who have playlists if I use a playlist here from Adrian Pope who runs Play It Again Sam here in the UK it will bring up all of his playlists so I'm going to subscribe to his playlist and download those songs or listen to them. The feature of the friends of course 3G is not working very well here so our cloud is not actually very active here but in any case that is the added value this is why I use Spotify I mean I can listen to free music on YouTube don't need Spotify for that so I pay ten euros for the friends feature value around the content the same goes for this app which you may know Flipboard Flipboard connects you with your Facebook friends and Twitter friends and it generates a magazine every couple of minutes a new version of it where you can browse to the stories and basically using whatever Facebook friends you have there and the value of Flipboard is not the story itself which of course is valuable otherwise it wouldn't be there but it's the way of finding it it's a curation tool I mean the same goes of course for the Kindle app which I'm sure you've used what's so great about the Kindle is not that I can buy the book I can buy the book before but now I can look at all these books and I can synchronize with how far I read it I can just click on it and it goes automatically to the latest place where I've read it on the iPad or in the Kindle so that is really a big difference in terms of how media is going to be used in the future let's go back to this here for a second it's probably a more elegant solution than this ok so second screens are becoming now the new generatives for television people second screens means about 45% of the UK residents that are on television are currently using a second screen while they're watching TV which is the iPad or iPhone or whatever Android device and lots of times talking about the content on the screen there's already an app by eBay that shows you all the stuff that's being currently shown on screen in the movie it shows you in real time to buy that stuff on eBay while you're watching for example the Ferrari that you can buy on eBay and then of course Facebook go in public this year will we have a Facebook remote control for television? yes not a question of when just if but when clearly Facebook is the biggest broadcaster in the world already it's roughly 1 billion users so I think this brings up tremendous new opportunities the social, local, mobile cloud idea right but the question is if we're jumping from the glass into the bowl make it a bigger bowl right are we really ready for this right are we ready for those new requirements and they're based on collaboration they're not based on lawsuits right then not even they're maybe based on law but not on the execution of a 50 year old paradigm so we have a significant issue here right we have to reinvent how it works together how we make money and the money making part of course if we're looking at the issues that we have are we going to control consumption make content unavailable and forced payment restrict sharing well some of those things may be useful some of the times but most of the time they don't make money they do something else maybe make us feel more entitled to money but my view is that I think we have to look at this a little bit differently I think the next three years we're going to have many policy and paradigm changes as far as content is concerned Fred Wilson, the lead investor in Twitter says restricting access to content is a bad business model in the age of a global network that costs practically nothing you distribute on distribution is zero but of course production is still just as expensive as before so we have a disparity again the New York Times has now decided in their wisdom to cut down from the 23 pages I could see before to 10 to force me into their payment model which is $5.95 a week and I love the New York Times I'm quite happy to pay $50 a year but $5.95 a week to read what's free somewhere else maybe not so things like this I'm a faithful user of iTunes and Apple TV and I watched a movie and 23.5 hours later it gives me this message I can't finish watching the movie that I've paid for because there's software saying I can't can we really expect this to be a solution for the future I know why we're doing this and all this stuff but it doesn't make any sense so we're going from a system of independence which is Disney Universal Music big companies basically having vertical power to a system of interdependence I mean if you look at all the success in the last 10 years Skype, Twitter, YouTube, Facebook eBay, Amazon they're based on interdependent business models which means collaboration and working out what I call hypercollaboration instead of having hypercompetition we have to have hypercollaboration why is it that the publishers have not invented Flipboard I mean all of their content is in Flipboard and there's many arguments about this clearly because we don't know how to collaborate and this is going to kill us if we don't change this because basically it creates huge opportunities to outsiders if you see in this for example what's happening in the US the only real place for growth of television you see it right here is Netflix everything else not growing so ease of use, choice, price values brand translates into dollars why are 24 million people today paying $10 a month for Netflix are they all like mad or are they all the exception to the fact that nobody wants to pay it just shows that it has to be done right and then people will make a payment so Brazil, Russia, India, China go online at fast pace we're going to have 3 billion more producers, users viewers coming online entering the middle class which is going to be absolutely huge and they will have content loaded devices with freemium access with bundled connection to the web using devices like this this is a tablet from India called the Arakash it's $35 for this tablet the price is going to go to $10 $10 for a tablet I mean imagine all the stuff that we can do with 3 billion people and we find a way for the commerce model so consumption this is consumption on mobile devices clearly the future is mobile I predict that between 50% and 75% of all content will be consumed on mobile devices in the next three to five years that may connect to larger screens but basically run by mobile devices so we live in our world that is referred to a network topology as a distributed network moving from the centralized to the decentralized to the distributed our future looks like this what I call the network society and the network society requires network media this is our mission is to become networked to figure out how we are going to offer things in the network society network media means things like central distribution systems shows that sell directly on the internet all the different cloud systems over the top content BBC iPlayer Xfinity from Comcast China internet and basically what we are seeing here is that going direct is also becoming a real option Amazon Kindle I mean clearly there is a lot of change coming up in the publishing business by people being able to go direct and this is now becoming actually feasible Seth Godin has already said he is doing it the premier leak may be sold to Apple I imagine what that will do to the likes of ITV and others we may doubt this will happen but clearly going direct is becoming more of an option going through Kickstarter and crowdfunded services and so on so really this is becoming quite real looking at this of course what it causes is fragmentation I mean our challenge really here is going to be to figure out how fragmentation can be used or not used or be re-bundled be re-aggregated because everybody is doing different things now so it's really quite a challenge here that we can see and then we have social networks no matter what you think of it the interesting part is here that this is a game essentially a gamification and the advertising that will happen there are very powerful forces and clearly we are going to see lots and lots of things where basically we can say that media companies become platforms I mean look at the comparative value of new media and old media Google, Facebook, Yahoo, Netflix and so on and old media the market value is about even this will completely flip in the next 10 years in fact it will emerge of course so we are going to see lots of things that will be quite challenging for us for example the difference between global smartphone users with roughly 1 billion now to 5 billion I mean that business model is extremely powerful for everyone that creates content so in the social ways we have to figure out how we can use this new power that we have and this goes to the issue of data we have to figure out what we can do with our data and what not this is a very lengthy process it's also the first time that this is actually possible we have to say maybe sometimes we have to shut up and not share something we have to be responsible this is a new power that we need to learn and Facebook clearly is shooting to own the socially integrated web I mean own it in the sense of Microsoft so there is a question I think that for our future is do we really want more walled gardens I doubt it I think there's a room for it and we have of course a beautiful walled garden right here with apple and others but I don't think that will work advertising real quick and then we'll wrap up advertising of course is a driver of the content industries about 70% of all content is funded by advertising rather than people paying directly or a mixture of the two of course so we're going to see this disparity between advertising spending and consumer time as you can see print for example a lot more money spent on print than people actually spend time on all that is going to shift back towards the web I mean if we're looking at these stats it's quite clear the biggest growth in 2015 is all digital, interactive, social online advertising that will impact all of our business model because it's roughly $1 trillion that people spend on advertising and marketing so that funding is going to shift and clearly in the next three years that budget shifts will be massive and what's called big data which is what we generate all our stuff are cookies our movements on the web and how we move around and what we say and what we like and what we forward and all that stuff big data will fund big content in parenthesis because data is advertising so clearly if you're in the content business you are in the technology business you are in the advertising business and you are in the data business that is actually a very close relationship these days and we are already paying with our data I mean how does LinkedIn operate you guys are all on LinkedIn I'm sure how do they operate they use your data to attract other people looking at your data and they make $450 million I think of $500 million last year doing this and selling it back to me for $19 so I can spam you I mean it's amazing right I mean all this stuff is basically as Twitter the same thing right selling our attention back to others who want it that's the most traditional way of advertising you can think of right so we're paying with our data and this will become a huge business I mean this is clearly the business of Google, Facebook and others is to have us pay with data so the question is you know if content is free is that a Faustian bargain is that a bargain to where I'm saying you know I'm going to get free movies on YouTube in return they sell my data to advertisers so they can look at my Gmail and dish up some interesting ads but if I don't want that can I still have it I mean clearly this is going to become a major issue in the next couple of years you know we also want to retain our privacy and this is becoming a much bigger issue pretty much every day but can we have the cake and eat it research by the Wall Street Journal saying if there's a do not track button on a website that would wipe out your data where you're coming from right and the browser would you use it and I did the vote and I said yes 90% right but how can we expect not to share our data and still get the free stuff well we obviously can't that we have the cake and eat it so there's a real challenge for us in the future I think the content business model pretty much depends on it so to wrap up my presentation two important points first of all you can't avoid risk if you do you run the course of looking and saying basically we've considered everything every potential risk except for avoiding the risk as the cartoon says right so we have to be more risk open and as you McLeod you have to engage or die I think I said this last year as well our choice is not to disengage and just say well we won't do this because we don't know what to do or we don't want to do it that would be very bad I think our future is engagement in figuring out new business models new generatives as Kevin Kelly has said so thanks very much and we're going to have a discussion later on this we're not taking questions now are we we're not taking questions now okay we're going to have a discussion later thanks very much for your time


Psalm 105 verse 19, until the time that his word came to pass, the word of the Lord tested him. This speaks actually about Joseph. If you read a little bit earlier, it says that he sent Joseph during the time of famine. They heard him. He was sold as a slave. They heard his feet. He was laid in irons.  There is going to be a time when God's word comes pass, when God's promise comes to pass, when God's purpose for your life comes to pass. But I want you to notice it says, before God's word came to pass, it says this, the word of the Lord tested Joseph. So there's three types of words. There is the written word of God, which is the Bible. There is the living word of God, which is Jesus. And then there is the rama or the prophetic word of God. It's the word that God quickens a promise. He makes it real for you, for your situation. And that's the third one that I'm referring to. It's that dream, that prophetic word. It's that, that call from God. It's that anointing. It's that assignment that you have. And it says, until the time that this word came to pass, this word tested Joseph. Everything in our life is either a reward or a test. Write that down. Everything in my life is either a reward or right now it's a test. God does not trust until he tries, until he tests. He tests men. We see this in the Bible. The Bible tells us to test prophecies. The scripture says, examine yourself, meaning even test yourself. The scripture even says to put God to a test through tithing. So testing is not anti-biblical thing. And thank God for tests. I wouldn't want to drive a car that hasn't been tested. In the average, a car goes through 1000 tests before it goes on the market. A vaccine goes through 10 to 15 years of research and then three clinical tests before it's available in the market. A lot of people, you have to go through a test if you're a doctor. You have to go through a test if you're a lawyer. I'm right now in the Bible, Bible college and every week I have to take a quiz and I have to take a test on Saturday. Because they can't let you go to the next level until you take a test. Same thing with God.  I want to share something with you right now. If you're right now waiting for the passing of God's promise in your life, that means you're currently in a test. If you're waiting for the passing, if what God promised has not come true, that means that promise right now is testing you. You're being tested. Five tests Joseph went through. Test number one is the test of time. This is the hardest one because it develops our patience. See, God's tests are not only to reveal that we are impatient, it's also at the same time to build something. They expose and they also expel. They reveal and they also refine us. And that's the first test. It's the test of timing. You know, I'm always in a hurry. Unfortunately, God is not. It's God develops patience by what? By letting us go through time where his word is not coming through on our time schedule. God cannot develop patience if he does not let you wait for things. Waiting is God's game. It's what he does. That's why we need to learn to wait on him and we will have to wait on his promise as well. You don't get everything in the microwave. It's not a drive through. God did not invent those things. He is slow. And then if you think he's slow, he's slower. But he develops something, develops patience. The second test is the test of... Come on, a test of faith. What is the test of faith? It purges our mood swings. The test of faith is this. I don't feel God. I don't feel like he's with me. I feel like God left me. What is happening is test of faith. Joseph went through this test because the Bible says two seasons in Joseph's life where it says the Lord was with Joseph. It was not in the season when he received the dream and he was favored by his father. And it was not in the season where he was promoted. Twice in his life it says the Lord was with Joseph. It was in the season where he was sold as a slave. And then when he was thrown into a prison as a prisoner. Surprisingly, those are the twice, two seasons the Bible says the Lord was with him. And it's interesting because usually in those seasons we need an extra reminder that God's presence is not contingent on the presence of your problems or absence of them. Another thing is God's presence does not hinge on your mood. God's presence with you does not depend on your feelings. In fact, I think sometimes God develops our faith by withdrawing the manifest presence where we feel him for a season so that our faith has a chance to grow. You cannot get a fulfillment of God's promise in your life until God develops your faith. And God cannot develop your faith until your feelings fail. Absolutely fail. I'm talking about splash, blood all over kind of a fail.  God has left me. I have such a dry place. I don't just that. I don't even know if he's real. What happens? You're being tested. Your faith is being tested.   Your faith might not be big, but it's genuine because if it's based in God, it can't be destroyed anymore than gold cannot be destroyed by fire. It takes 1,940 degrees Fahrenheit to turn gold from solid to liquid, but you can't burn it with fire. Real faith cannot be destroyed. It can only be purified. Never be afraid of a test of faith. So what do you do if you are in the season right now where your faith is being tested? Very simple. When you don't feel God's presence, feed on His promise. If you don't feel Him, feed on Him. Feeding is a choice. Feeling is not. You don't control what you feel, but you can control what you feed. Your mood, have it go up and down. Your feelings will go up and down. You can't control that. Sometimes you can make your feelings feel better, even though you can choose to have joy in the Lord, but you can't control your mood. Don't take drugs to change your mood. Just change what you feed yourself with. Feed yourself with God's word. I love Bartimaeus. Bartimaeus was a blind man, and the Bible says, well, he was blind. So when you're blind, you can't see. But the Scripture says this, and Bartimaeus heard Jesus. The Lord spoke to me one time, and he said this, when you can't see me, hear me. And how did he was able to see Jesus? Because when he heard, when you use what is open, it will unlock what is closed. As he heard Jesus, he was able to then cry out to Jesus, and then Jesus opened his eyes, and he was able to see Jesus who saw him before he was able to see him. Jesus sees you when you don't feel Him. Jesus knows you when you don't feel He is near you. And so what you gotta do right now is hear Jesus when you don't see Jesus. If your faith is being tested, faith comes by hearing of the Word of God. If you don't feel His presence, hear Him. Where was I during the first service? Why didn't it flow like this during the first service? My God. I'm just kidding. The third test. The third test, and this is a test of purity. Joseph had to be tested in the area of purity. He fled temptation. He didn't flirt with temptation. He went to prison after the temptation, and then he went to the palace. Purity is the way through prison to the palace. Purity is choosing prison over restriction before you embrace the relationship, the benefits of that relationship.  There's a price to pay for purity, and this price is prison to your desires. What is available to you and not sinful, you have to put that into prison. Everybody wants to be in purity, but what we don't like is the prison. Meaning, I want to still be able to do what I want. I want to follow whoever I want to follow. I want to look at whoever I want to look at. I want to watch what I want. If you ever are giving your flesh no boundaries, no restrictions, no prison, you'll never walk in purity. To walk in purity, the test of purity is this, is that you have to put yourself in the prison. You don't look second time. Come on, older man.  You don't watch that thing, and people will look at you and say, oh, you are legalists. No, I have to put myself in the prison, because that's what purity demands. If you don't choose prison, you will be enforced, eventually a prison of failed relationships, dead into your eyeballs, and then just having all of these troubles. And Joseph chooses prison, not necessarily that he chose prison, but his purity forced him into prison. He fled from a temptation. You don't overcome lust. You don't pass the test of lust by flirting with lust. And a lot of us, this is why we fall into lust and we fornicate. It's because we say flirting is that sin, but falling is sin. So I will see how I can flirt as close to the line as I can possibly can without falling. You can't flirt and not fall.  I know the Bible doesn't say don't make out with your boyfriend, but listen, the moment you begin to play with the line and play in the gray, you will fall. And it's not because the devil is bad. It's because you are careless. And why are you careless? Because you're afraid of a prison. I don't want to put restrictions in my life. There is no other way to pass the test of purity than choosing prison. You gotta choose prison. Amen. Who you talk to? Who you DM? At first, it may seem like that's a lot of legalism.  Emotionally, he better be in prison on his Instagram or no Instagram at all. Why? Because you know one thing, there is no way he can walk in purity. She can walk in purity without a prison. Everybody needs a prison. The better your prison, the better your purity. Ouch! To pass the test, you have to choose your prison.  You will struggle with purity, never walk in it. Because you have to impose restrictions on your liberties. Everything is, I can do everything, but not everything's beneficial. And therefore, I have to restrict my liberties. Amen. The test number four, are you with me? Is the test of offense. And this is a test of forgiveness. Joseph had to go through that. In fact, this, I think, is the hardest one, especially if God has given you the grace and you've conquered the purity part. If you conquered the faith part, this one will jab you so bad, because you feel a little bit entitled to God's favor and God's grace. And what begins to happen is people come alongside and give you such a bad time. And the worst part is these are not strangers or spam bots on YouTube. These are people who actually you know. The reason why pain of rejection is the deepest is because it comes from the closest people. Jesus was rejected by his own. Joseph was rejected by his own. And this is extremely, extremely painful. You cannot be fruitful if you're not forgiving. Every person in this room who will see the fulfillment of God's promise will be hurt. You will, you will get hurt. Some of you, you were hurt.  I am not saying you should stay in abusive relationship. What I'm saying, it's not possible to see the fulfillment of God's word without taking this test. And this is the test of hurt, of offense. Forgiving somebody does not mean I minimize what they did. It doesn't mean I overlook what they did. It doesn't mean I blame myself for what they did. Forgiving somebody does not mean I am waiting for them to apologize. Jesus did not wait on the cross for Pharisees to apologize before he forgave them. Till this day, they still think what they did was right. Forgiveness is not, does not mean that what they did did not matter or did not hurt. It simply means my future is bigger than my hurt. That's all that it means. You made my life miserable, but I do not give you the authority to make my future miserable. My future, you caused a lot of pain, but you do not have access to my, to my, to my future. You had access to my past.  I cannot give you 50. And therefore I choose to forgive you. Not because you deserve it.  This stops today. When you forgive somebody, you set the prisoner free, and then you realize that prisoner was you. You released yourself from the shackles of them controlling your life in the future.  It's being a victor when you release your ex, when you release the person that hurt you, when you release the person that meant to do you well. And then God takes the unfortunate situation and uses it for your good. Because the Bible says Joseph looked at his brothers after the death of Jacob, and they said, we feel so bad about what we did. And Joseph says, do not be afraid because what you meant for evil, you didn't do it unintentionally. You meant intentionally. God turned it for my good. Why? Because I refuse to stay better. I refuse to stay offended. I refuse to switch churches.   I refuse to let to develop this very thin, thick skin and a very thin skin in my heart. I chose to keep my heart soft. I forgive you. I love you. And I'm expecting God to reward me in Jesus' name. The last test, this is the test of diligence. And the test of diligence means you don't wait for a new season in life before you start to do your best in the season that you were in. Destination disease has caused too many people never to do anything in their present. Destination disease is once I get married, I will lose my weight. Once I get married, I'll pay off my debt. The destination disease is this. Once they give me a title at Hungry Jen, then you will see me fasting and prayer. Once they give me this, that's what I'm going to do that. Joseph did not wait until he reached the palace to live pure. He did not wait to reach the palace before he exercised his skills to manage places and to cause places to prosper. To such a good degree that in prison they put him in charge of a prison. He was a prison ward. Why was he that? Because he looked at every situation in his life and he says, I'm now waiting for that season to practice and maximize my effectiveness in this season. And that is one of the reasons his branches climbed over the wall. Actually, the gifts of the Holy Spirit did not show up in the palace as they showed up in prison. God spoke to him when he was a teen, that you will have people bow to you. But you don't see one mention of the gifts of the Holy Spirit operating in Joseph's life until he's in prison and watch this.  You're supposed to be sad. And Joseph comes to him and says, why are you sad? Tells me, the way Joseph ran the prison, there was nobody sad. I don't know what he was doing, telling them jokes or cheering them up with jealousy sermons in every morning. I don't know what he was doing, but everybody was happy. It seems like because the guy who was sad, Joseph highlighted him. And the guy says, I had a dream. Now watch this. Think about it. Joseph had a dream too. So if you hear somebody saying, I have a dream, this would be a good moment to say, bro, did you eat a lot of pizza? Did we spice your drink yesterday? This would be a good moment to say, please, please do not pay attention to them because I did look what it got me. And God was testing Joseph. Will Joseph open himself up to a divine flow of wisdom from God to help somebody in the very area? God is not moving in his area, in his life. And supernaturally, the gift begins to flow. He translates the dream and it works for somebody and he still spends two years in the same prison because God's anointing will always work better through you than for you.  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For decades, Mr President, we have called on global financial institutions to carve out a special regime that takes into account our smallness and vulnerabilities to climate change. This is not an unreasonable demand. We have insisted that the many of the challenges that we face have come from the external environments and are not of our own making. Given our small size and miniscule levels of industrial pollution, we are among the least responsible for global warming. But given our small size, our value economies, we are among the most defenseless to the ravages of climate change. A single hurricane which destroys our entire agricultural crop or destroys our tourism plant and infrastructure can set us back for decades. We are simply asking that these vulnerabilities be considered when our financial obligations for development assistance are being negotiated. This results in the mutual beneficial solution of ensuring that the views of the global economy keep on turning while at the same time allowing us the breathing space to participate meaningfully before a renewed sense of faith in the legitimacy of the global financial system and its institutions. We need to include the vulnerabilities of small states like solution when calculating the value of their economies. This is a matter of survival for our people.


So, you just wanted a quick rundown on the base code from last video. Not a problem. The Any Facts class is just the information that the user types in here. If you look back, you can see that each animation has a checkbox for neutral, a name, an end, what comes after it, and a transition speed, exactly the way we've set it up. Then you have the actual script that performs the animation. In it, these two variables work together to help you get the exact frames in your animation. B-frame is just the adjuster to calculate the frame rate from Blender, and the result allows us to track frame by frame where our animations are at all times. So if you were doing a fighting animation, and you wanted the hitboxes to appear on frames 25 and 32, you could easily tell the hitboxes when to appear using this number. Anicon ref just references our animator, which houses our avatar and our controller. Current animation and frame keep track of which animation is playing and how far into it we are. Actions is just a collection of all your animations. We had three actions, but you could have as many as you wanted. In the start, we set idle animation and set the play speed to one. If your game had slow motion features, this would be the number you want to control. The change method is the one that you call from other scripts any time you want to trigger another animation. The first number tells the animation to change too. The second determines how fast it changes. In the last video, we mapped this method to the up arrow and Y buttons to trigger walking and attacking. The final method here runs the animation. It's normally run from the update method, and everything down here just basically says if the current frame reaches the last frame in the animation. Transition to the next one that comes after. Unless the animation is set to negative one, which you might remember is our term for a loop in animation. Also, if you would like to see what the code looks like using time.delta time, a very fantastic man by the name of Mason Wheeler from Stormhunter Studios has very kindly outlined the changes that you would need to make to implement it. As you all know, I'm still working on incorporating time.delta time into my own workflow, and his take on this code has really helped me shift my technique towards that direction. I'd also like to give one more shout out to Sayuri Artsy of Eager Passion for providing the core code that allowed me to figure this stuff out in the first place. So again, thank you to everyone for your support, and that concludes the basic Blended Unity Export Series. I am currently waiting for some mocap stuff to arrive in the mail, and as soon as those parts arrive, we are going to finish the Blended Animation Tutorial Series with motion capture. So, I hope you look forward to that. As always, I hope you have a fantastic day, and I'll see you around.


Good morning. Welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 27th of May and this quick look ahead at the week beginning the 30th of May and what is going to be a shorter week than normal we've got two bank holidays on Thursday and Friday to celebrate Her Majesty the Queen's Platinum Jubilee 70 years on the throne so the main item of the week will be on the Friday it'll be non-farm payrolls and that could well give a little bit of an indication in terms of wage growth as to whether or not the Fed is likely to pause after the 250 basis point rate hikes that are priced in for June and July. Before we get on to that the payrolls data it's always a good idea to look back at the week just gone and it's been a broadly positive week across the board. FTSE 100 is up around 75.60 post some fairly decent gains this week it's up over 2% over a five day period which is not too shabby in the slightest fairly decent return and back in positive territory for the year we can see that based on this little Bloomberg feature here which is quite nifty for any of you who use Bloomberg over the past five days the best performers this week have been a Cardo which is up 13% with a good portion of that gain on the back of this week's announcement of a windfall tax or an energy price levy or whatever you want to call it and you know I think that that's really been the headline for the week the the I want to say it's an unexpected decision by the government to you turn on a windfall tax even though it was only just over a week ago that they whipped their MPs to vote against a windfall tax but on Thursday they announced a plan to raise up to five billion pound over the next year or so which will go towards helping funding new measures to help eight million people on means tested benefits with a one-off payment of 650 pounds as well as 400 pound payment for everybody else to help with higher than expected energy bills and while the help is very welcome certainly to the more cashstrapped members of society I think you can be for basically the Chancellor taking measures to help out the consumer without actually approving of the means of which he's chosen to do it and certainly I think it doesn't send a particularly wonderful message that the UK has a coherent industrial or energy strategy BP has already announced that it is reviewing its investment in the North Sea and more broadly the UK and let's not forget that BP is also at the forefront of the green height hydrogen revolution and is due to make a decision take a decision next year on a green hydrogen facility in T side 2023 they've they've announced it and earmarked some funds for it but a final decision is going to be taken in 2023 so the fact that also that it's not a one-off tax but it is going to be implemented this year 2023 2024 with a sunset clause the end of 2025 suggests suggests you know sort of an Oliver twist type attitude towards the oil companies please sir can I have some more unfortunately for the UK oil and gas sector it's not BP in shells share prices that really born the brunt of this decision it's the smaller players of Sereca energy and enquest and these you can you can see the impact on this chart here over the course of the last two days I mean these companies generate less than about one and a half billion dollars of revenue per year so it's not as if there's an awful lot of profits to play with and then you've got harbour energy which was born out of the ashes of premier oil it's got debts of over two billion pounds and obviously in terms of investing in UK oil and gas this is a significant blow to the smaller players in the oil and gas sector who in recent years have struggled to get the investment to essentially get this transition fuel into renewables so again big big big falls there in enquest and also harbour energy as well which is in the FTSE 100 and see that chart there fallen quite sharply over the course of the past few weeks when talk of a windfall tax first became mainstream and obviously BP and Shell they've been able to absorb the worst of it simply on the basis that they make an awful lot of their revenue outside the UK so essentially they've they've sort of come out of it an awful lot better and I think that's the key message I think you know when we when we look at this windfall tax while it may may raise an awful lot of money in the short term in the longer term it doesn't really send a particularly positive message and you can see that here in the five-day performance of the FTSE 100 the government has also held open the possibility that they could widen the tax to the utilities providers the electricity grid providers so SSE Scottish and Southern it's down 9% over the past five days national grid down 3.3% you know the problem here it's not so much about the fact that you know we can't buy gas actually spot gas prices are well below three month forward gas prices we don't have storage we don't have infrastructure green infrastructure to be able to get a store this renewable energy and then use it as and when we need it so when you're talking about L when you're talking about Shell investing £25 billion over the course of the next decade BP investing £18 billion over the next decade you're probably going to need an awful lot more than that to upgrade the grid infrastructure as well as the storage capacity and pretty much everything else when it comes to making this transition from fossil fuels to renewables anyway so pretty misguided decision to levy a windfall tax I think at the moment the government needs to I think really focus on a much longer term energy strategy rather than the short-termist measures it sends it seems to stagger to and fro from on a week to week basis anyway that is sort of by the by let's look at the wider market because the wider market is looking pretty positive this week which does seem a little bit counterintuitive when you see when you look at some of the moves that we've seen particularly in retail stocks over the course of the past week or so and we have seen a bit of a turnaround in the retail sector obviously the windfall tax has had a part to play in that in terms of replenishing the the wallets of consumers essentially giving them slightly more regular room when it comes to their disposable income so you could essentially call this week's mini budget if you want to call it that a fiscal stimulus which in fact it is the downside to that is it probably makes a bank of England rate hike or multiple bank of England rate hikes this year over the course of the rest of this year much more likely because of concerns about potentially higher inflation and obviously the downside to this windfall tax is it could actually result in slightly higher oil prices as well oil and gas prices or more should I say more expensive prices at the pump as these companies try to restore some of the margin here that they're likely to take as a result of this windfall tax so these sorts of measures do have unintended consequences notwithstanding the damage it does to the UK's reputation as a stable investment area so thus far we've seen a fairly positive market reaction US markets look as if they're going to go they're going to post the first weekly rise in eight weeks which is always welcome getting a decent rebound in this chart in the S&P 500 here potentially that could be a bullish weekly reversal which if it plays out the way that it that it that it could well do we'd need to see a break above 4100 on a weekly basis to signal a move back towards this trend line resistance from the peaks that we saw here so I'm going to draw that trend line in there keep an eye on that over the course of the next few weeks if we break this support here this was sorry this this resistance area around about 4100 over the course of the next few days one of the one of the other catalysts I think for the rebound in markets has been the sell-off in the dollar over the course of the past couple of weeks but also the weakness in US Treasury yields which I talked about last week as well we do appear to have hit a short-term top when it comes to US Treasury yields so we've got I talked about this bullish reversal back here I then talked about the bullish reversal on the weekly chart a couple of weeks ago and again we've drifted back down again so you know if you're working on the basis that you could well see inflation potentially starting to top out we'll know a little bit more about that with the PCE numbers which you out later today but also in terms of some of the comments that are starting to come out from the Federal Reserve with respect to we'll probably get another 250 basis point rate hikes one in June and one in July but the Atlanta Fed president Rafael Bostic has floated a little bit of a trial balloon this week could we see a pause in September I think we'll get better clues about September in the aftermath of Jackson Hole in August because Jackson Hole generally tends to be a fairly key way sign if you like in terms of what the Fed is looking to do over the course of the rest of the year so you'll get the 250 basis point rate hikes one in June and one in July what happens after that you could get clues to that with respect to Jackson Hole there's also the prospect that the ECB might be looking to raise rates in July as well and September potentially I struggle with two rate hikes this year I struggle with the idea of two we might at a pinch get one which would bring the the main headline rate from minus 0.5 to 0 but given where energy prices are now given that they're not likely to come down anytime soon you do have to struggle to wonder where the growth is going to come from in the Euro area you know you can and also inflation is still at record highs CPI EU CPI is due out flash CPI for May is due out on the 31st of May and that's expected to stay at a record high the 7.5% and potentially head higher to 7.6 now core prices are less than half of that they're around about three and a half percent but nonetheless you've got a wide cross section of inflation rates across the Euro area you've got 4.8% in France that's largely due to the French government capping energy prices and imposing essentially the losses on EDF and the energy energy company there and then bailing them out but in places like Estonia headline CPI is 18.8% it's 16.8% in Lithuania so the Euro area does have an inflation problem it's just masked by an average on the headline number for EU CPI with the ECB you know it does have to set interest rates for the wider area and certainly I think there is pressure being brought to bear on Christine Lagarde to raise rates in July and certainly she said that that will happen in July she sort of held herself to a little bit of a hostage to fortune so if the data deteriorates between now and July she's going to find it very very difficult to resile from that commitment and that could be a problem going forward we've also seen weakness in the dollar and I think that has helped the broader risk recovery that we've seen over the course of the past few days and we can see that in this daily chart here the sticks and moving averages on to that here we go and again it's the 50 day moving average it could almost be you could almost inter you could almost overlay the US 10-year Treasury yield over that chart because they're almost identical in terms of look and feel the only difference is the part right rather than three weeks of declines which the US Treasury yield has this is the second of the US dollar index and you know it's a fairly decent run of run of declines it's probably the worst run of declines since August September last year when we declined two weeks in a row there well we did there as well but we're talking we're talking fairly big declines over the course of the past couple of years we look at the three-year chart we can see it we can see it there so there's certainly room to pull back a little bit further there's also room I think you can argue that we could have further to form maybe back towards 100 over the course the next few days now of course that potentially means that euro dollar could move higher and at the moment we do appear to be starting to see evidence of a little bit of a base starting to form we are pushing up against the 50 day moving average we're also pushing up against trend line resistance from the peaks in January so how we behave around about 108 is going to be very very important in the wider scheme of things when it comes to the direction for euro dollar this is now no longer valid what this doesn't do is undermine my wider view the euro dollar goes lower through 103 40 towards parity the only difference is that that move is likely to take place over the course of the next couple of years in the short term we could get a move all the way back to 111 without undermining that scenario what we don't really want to see I think is a move back above into this triangle breakout here because essentially that's probably going to completely undermine my bearish euro scenario but ultimately the big test will come around about 108 108 20 30 if we break back above these sorts of levels here we could see a wider correction the euro correction towards the upside in terms of cable we're still underperforming relative to euro again we're looking a little bit overboard we're approaching the 50 day moving average the narrative around potential rate hikes has changed somewhat with this week's fiscal stimulus I think there was an info law that there was a little bit of concern that the economy would stagnate q3 q4 obviously this week's measures announced by Rishi Sunak have mitigated that to a certain extent and also let's not forget the national insurance thresholds are also being raised in July so that's an additional boost to incomes and essentially the entire package that he's announced this week it was 15 billion pound but if you add all the measures up the other measures up that he announced earlier it comes to somewhere close to 30 billion pounds but which only five billion of that will be raised by the windfall tax always assuming that of course it even raises that much and yeah there are investment incentives within that 90 for every unit for every pound invested into the UK economy you get 91 P back so essentially a super deduction but I think the wider thing is here while that is welcome the narrative around the imposition of the tax has been such that you don't say that you're not going to do it one minute and then go and do it the next because ultimately it then makes businesses doubt everything that you say about your energy policy and your industrial policy going forward because your word can't be trusted you know you're telling me that you won't do this one minute and then you go and do it the next you know that's not the sort of narrative that you really you know if you're a business and you're going to be investing billions of pounds into an economy that you want to hear from the political leaders of the day so in any case digressing slightly cable big big resistance around about 126 2030 we have we have edged higher posted a higher 67 today I really want to see a move back to 128 30 and then a move through 128 30 to signal a potential basis in certainly on the daily candle the picture is encouraging on that basis so I would certainly argue that we could well go all the way back to 131 over the course of the next few weeks but for now I think we have potentially found a little bit of a base and the big question is now how much can we rally because certainly think in the wider context of things this week's events have made more rate hikes much more likely from the Bank of England that should be sterling positive and that's really reflected in the way euro sterling has behaved over the course of the past couple of days we struggled to get much above 86 now that's not to say that we won't see another test of it but ultimately we're still in the same range we've been we've always been in for most of this year between 82 and 86 and I think that's unlikely to change in the short to medium term so I would continue to play that particular range for the foreseeable future what else have we got we've also got we've got the services PMIs I mean to be quite honest those are a waste of space given the concerns about rising input costs rising inflation disruptions to supply chains I'm actually surprised that they're as positive as they are they certainly don't give a very very accurate reflection of where the economies are if you look at say for example the flash PMIs that we saw from Germany France in the UK we saw a big fall in the UK services PMI to 51.8 well that's not surprising given the tax rises that we saw in April May the May services PMI fell from 58 to 51.8 is a really big fall hopefully this week's events will see a little bit more confidence see back in over the course of the rest of the quarter we've also got UK lending data net consumer credit has recovered after a slow start that's due on the 30th that's on the Monday look to see whether or not there's going to be a little bit of a recovery in that we've also got the Bank of Canada rate decision and we're expecting a 50 basis point rate hike here why simply because Canadian economy is doing well inflation rose CPI froze to its highest levels since 1990 in week in numbers released earlier this month 6.8 percent unemployment is low at 5.2 percent so the Bank of England is likely the Bank of England Bank of Canada is likely to get out in front of the Federal Reserve by hiking its policy rate from 1 percent to 1.5 percent now there's an outside chance they might go 75 I would be surprised if they did but with all the discussions going on about where the neutral rate is you do sort of have to question whether or not they will go any harder than 50 basis points even though there has been talk of the Federal Reserve might start to look at 75 basis points in over the course of the next couple of months the main number for the week is non-farm payrolls and I think the key takeaway for that is not so much the resilience of the labour market we know that's pretty strong I don't think that's going to change 428,000 new jobs were added in April the March number was advised lower to 428,000 so we got a nice bit of symmetry on March and April jobs numbers average hourly earnings remain steady at 5.5 percent now I find that a little bit counterintuitive why because inflation is high and there's 11.1 million vacancies in the US economy and you've got an unemployment rate at 3.5 percent so neither of these numbers are expected to move the dial that much when it comes to monetary policy it's wages growth it is likely to offer clues as to whether or not there is starting to see we are starting to see increasing price pressures starting to build up in the wake of very high inflation now they're around about 5.5 percent average hourly earnings in the US that seems that feels like they should be an awful lot higher given the number of vacancies they're not so I think in terms of the wages numbers we want to see these holding up or even actually rising and the mystery is why that's not happening now I'm looking at the estimates the moment for US wages growth for next week's main numbers and to say that I'm surprised is an understatement markets are pricing in a fall to 5.2 percent so that just completely runs completely at odds to what I would think should be happening when it comes to wage growth so we'll see whether or not that plays out but we don't want to see we don't really want to see a weaker number there and if we do get a weaker number then obviously that's potentially going to be dollar negative going forward so that's payrolls due on the 3rd of June there won't be a payrolls webinar due to it being the Queen's Platinum Jubilee and we're having a street party so I'll probably be out toasting her mage but in terms of earnings announcements next week there's only a couple that really caught my eye B&M European retail is a discount retailer here in the UK has seen a little bit of a recovery in the past couple of days on the back of that budget announcement and hopefully that will arrest some of the declines that we've seen in their retail sector consumer discretionary we've seen a broad mix of numbers obviously we saw those really big misses in the US from Walmart from Target we'll have you but we've seen some fairly decent beats from Dollar Tree Dollar General Nordstrom and Macy's so the US consumer is still out spending money they're probably just being slightly more picky about where they spend it so while things are never as bad as they've seen they're also never as good as they're saying they're sort of somewhere in between so I think when you're trading these markets you basically have to adopt this doctor policy of yeah all doom and gloom on over here okay fine talking your book all sweetness and light over here all good you know nothing is ever as good as it seems but neither is it as bad and I think that's really the the attitude that you really have to adopt having said that looking at B&M European retail it's still done pretty well over the course of the past couple of years and it's still well above its pre-pandemic or post-pandemic first lockdown lows we'll call them that shall we the other one is the M&A that we saw this week Broadcom which is semiconductor to maker done very well from the chip shortage we slip back from the record highs of early this year in much the same as the rest of the sector like its peers in video Intel AMD it's a much more diversified business and they become or I get a set to become even more diversified it makes chips for iPhones industrial equipment it also has a data center business and the software services business so looking at the numbers and its decision to buy VMware cloud company VMware as part of the $61 billion deal in order to diversify its revenue streams even more has seen the company after initial dump over the course of the first part of the week recover an awful lot of those losses and hold above that key support level there so one-and-a-half billion breakclaws in the contract on either side of the deal if they decide to pull out but ultimately I think it's it'll be a fairly a fairly interesting set of numbers and it will certainly be interesting in the context of where they see guidance going forward the fact it's broken below the 200-day moving average is a little bit of a worry and also the fact that it hasn't actually got back above it yet it's hold these lows here we now need to see it get back above the 200-day moving average to reintroduce the uptrend that's been in place over the course of well look at this here over the since since the lows back in March 2020 other companies reporting next week we've got HP first quarter second quarter numbers on the 31st of May and we've got four-year numbers from Dr Martins otherwise that's it for this week ladies and gentlemen once again thank you very much for listening hope you all have a great weekend and but I don't speak to you before I hope you all enjoy the Platinum Jubilee thanks very much for listening