Hello, thank you all for coming to my talk post lunch not an easy thing to do I only had broccoli for lunch very uncharacteristic, but it's gonna keep me spry So my name is Matt Sarabian. I work at zip car. We're our home offices right here in Boston. That's Andy We are hiring so if you think any of this stuff I'm about to talk about as cool. You should talk to him not me Zip car was among the first IOT platforms. It started seven years before the iPhone was invented we currently have over a million customers across a hundred ten countries and Cloud Foundry and Bosch tooling really helped us to standardize across all of our public and private data centers That's been huge. We've been using Cloud Foundry and production for about three years now Which you may have heard from Andy If you caught any of the keynotes And also if you caught any of my colleagues talk like Jason who is here in Derek You know, you may have seen these stats What running in production means for us is that we have over 25 production environments between Dev and prod We have over 6,000 containers running right now kind of a lot our engineers control their own application release cycles They release code every day of the week all the time And if you're laughing right now, I know you have bad taste in jokes and read slides So let's talk secrets These are the things we think about when we're talking about secrets, right if you've seen any other secrets talks here You've probably seen this list many many times We want to keep these things secret There's some big pile of secrets and application needs some subset We need to run time some subset We need during deploy time and we also want infrastructure as code and those things fight Right. So what are we gonna do? We're gonna store them somewhere secure when we're not using them But as a result of doing that Secrets are gonna end up kind of in plaintext on our stack, right? We're gonna try to restrict access to them, but we still need them at some point So we're gonna use a templating solution or we're gonna find ways to inject them into the environment, but You know, that's not ideal when your clicker does Very very bad. Hold on Yes, so We inject them into our environment, right? CFN you may have heard about that that some security talks you can see all the secrets that some container needs That's painful CF dot is even worse if you're in a Diego cell and you check out the state of your cell you're gonna see Every container in that cells secrets Because they live in the environment When you get a scheduler involved, of course your scheduler in this case Diego or if you're on Kubernetes, right? Something else is gonna need your secrets to inject into the environment So it's gonna persist it in its own data store so that when your scheduler wants to heal your Infrastructure or scale you up or deploy a new thing. It's gonna stick that stuff in the environment for you very hopeful also a little scary Or you're gonna do something clever and you're gonna say well I'm not gonna put secrets in my environment instead I'm gonna give it something that's gonna let it off to my super secret store But in order off to your secret store need to give it something to off with which is also a secret And so that's a pain it means that we're transiting secrets through multiple Pieces of our platform and that's Charles all the way down right James Hunt referred to it as the secret zero problem So I don't have tons of time So instead I want to do threat modeling with really big and broad strokes on a scale of script kitty to the massage With an incompetent or malicious employee landing right in the middle. What is our major concern? So I'm guessing that because you're at this talk, which is about managing container secrets at scale You're all comfortable setting up a network perimeter Firewall rules right role-based access credentials VPNs Audible authentication, you know who's in there and what they're doing Congratulations, you're safe from you know, where's from the 90s and script kitties trolling on the internet probably Probably most of you are here. You think your co-workers are kind of cool, right?  That's never happened And so we trust them and we trust the way that they work And we're gonna put in internal authorization levels so that we limit the number of people who can do the inside job And that's cool The problem is that if you can't detect or resist that incompetent or malicious employee You probably cannot detect or resist a Modern attack because at a certain point that modern and sophisticated attack breaks through all your script kitty level safety and it's in your network and now you can't tell the difference between that attack and And that malicious employee and so this is a great time to stop and ask ourselves Why do I care? Oh my god? Right like I you want to talk to me about secure introduction like I got default passwords over there So, you know solving secure introduction is only really a problem if you have secrets to protect and you understand your threat model So nobody's gonna come attack your super secret secret protection architecture If everything else isn't sorted out first So basically what I'm saying is if you're not sure you need this you probably don't need this. It's not fun Secret management is not like something you're gonna do for funsies and a hobby. I think it's fun because I'm insane Secrets don't make friends. That's a saying for a reason so So if you think you need this, it's probably because You've got regulatory requirements, right like somebody is gonna be looking at you if you leak secrets So here's where we want to get We can't resist the NSA or the Mossad or some state actor with unlimited compute unlimited funds spy satellites that we don't have But we can probably resist a malicious employee it'd be nice And you know anybody can get zero dead There's all kinds of bugs out there that people are just sitting on that nobody knows about and so all your cool Security checking is not gonna catch it because no one knows about it It's not we're saying what we're saying is wouldn't it be nice if we could design a system Where we're not trusting nobody ever we're just shy of trusting nobody ever How do you get there? I think there's two keys. The first is expiring trust Yeah, I'm gonna trust my machines I'm gonna trust my employees, but I'm gonna put some kind of onus on them to consistently prove that they're actually worthy of that trust and You know my key here is like if you're gonna implement automated credential rotation or you're gonna swap out your search You're gonna swap out your keys delete the old ones you can laugh but like credential rotation is actually really hard to do and There's a lot of funky and annoying Edged cases that can cause you to leave those old credentials around and if you do that for a few hours or days it's probably not a problem, but like I'm sure some of you have looked into a credential rotation scheme and gone like oh my god We've got six months of old credentials here Not good you'd be so much better off if you never did that because then you'd know the state of the situation There's one secret and as long as it didn't leak. I'm probably good and when I rotate it I'm doing it manually and oh, it's so painful, but like it really is rotated The other one is we're gonna keep our eyes on people and things We want a system where if our secrets are compromised, it's relatively easy and quick to find out in some way We have some options. We have to do this ourselves Some of these may sound familiar Committing secrets baking them into your base imagery base container injecting them into the environment kind of status quo Or fetching them at runtime So three of these things fall just shy of resisting your inside job and one of them is slightly better and I think the thing to remember is like it's still totally a valid Strategy to shrink the group of people who have access to that giant pile of secrets That is totally totally fine because this stuff is hard and doing it wrong is way worse than not doing it at all So committing secrets don't make me talk about this You know, oh, yeah laugh. You're doing it. I know you're doing it. I Promise myself. I'm not gonna get upset so I'm also not gonna talk about baking secrets into a base image I want to talk about this injecting them into the environment This is where at today. There've been some cool talks that show how you don't necessarily have to do this anymore And we'll get into that in a minute Just a reminder the environment can be seen by every process Friendly and hostile if you have a developer that writes an angry application that logs your environment to a log or a server Or an s3 bucket. That's bad Your environment ending up in logs is really bad for two reasons one It's like, oh my god, it's in the logs and two because you're lowering that technical barrier, right? I'm gonna restrict access to my jump box I'm gonna restrict access to my containers and nobody can get into my system Are you restricting access to your cabana logs or elastic search? Probably not because somebody who's gonna like debug this stuff needs to go in there And they might not have that same level of access as that tight-knit group of people And so if I can like Lucine crews are hard, right? But they're not so hard that I can't put one together that says like PG password, right? Like that's not that bad If I want to go a little bit closer to state actor level I can say that my hypervisor and my scheduler both have access To my containers environment and so that means that if there were ever zero days on those all my creds would get leaked And we already talked about how rotation is a pain so fine Great, I've convinced you I can tell we want to fetch them at runtime, but how are we gonna do that? MTLS very popular super awesome A secret that let's us get other secrets. We know that's bad Whitelisting with network information. It's not so bad I think it's like a base level right like is this request coming from a place that should come from We should be asking that question. It's like low hanging security fruit It keeps you safe from script kitties not from a not from a malicious modern attack So this is the secure introduction problem when something requests credentials at runtime Why do I trust that request at all? And if I do trust that request, how am I gonna get them to credentials in the first place? So You only have two options There's probably more but these are the two.  Oh, I love vault, but oh man If you've never worked with a vault server, it can be challenging. There's a lot of tricky things There's a safe release can make that easier And it can easily become a snowflake or single point of failure. That's pain There's no built-in blush support. There's things like spruce that can help. There's other third-party tools that can help us, but There's nothing built in There's lots of off options, but they need to be manually configured which can also be kind of tricky and get too close That's no flake state. Maybe And the seal and unsealed behavior people usually hate. I just restarted I just redeployed vault and like sealed and I have to wake somebody up at two in the morning to unseal it I think that is a feature and you can bother me about that later I don't get those pings by the way So vault is also awesome at a lot of things It has granular break-ass support It has parent-child token relationships And that means that if I have a child token that is doing this awesome second bullet thing of Generating dynamic secrets for me from tons of external services like I can revoke that parent token and all the other credentials get revoked for me I don't I don't care what they are. I don't know what they are, right? That's awesome It also has lots of built-in off options. Even though you have to manually configure them. There's tons of them super cool I say zero credential Rotate zero downtime credential rotation is solved There are lots of tools in the vault ecosystem that make this easier It does require some onus on app developers to solve this right if your app is gonna pull from the environment to read credentials Or gonna pull from some other place to read credentials and it only does that at boot time. Well Probably gonna have to reboot your app might be some downtime and we can talk about ways to solve that It does have built-in concourse support if you do a lot of things with concourse like we do at zip car Your life is can be can be much easier Vault also has mind share both in and out of the CF community. So just like all open-source software while you're sleeping vault is getting better Vault has detailed audit logs and tons of places you can ship those logs to which is great Vault is FIPS compliant, which if I don't know is that a concern for anybody here? Congratulations, that's great the mess not a concern for me either But they will give you a letter that says they are FIPS compliant. You can show that to a lawyer and you are set Vault also has multiple back-end storage options right vault really wants to function as a dumb host So vault doesn't want your data. What does want your secrets? Just gonna pass it through and encrypt it somewhere else That's nice Credhub has tons of benefits to Thanks to Diego Credhub can do mTLS auth for you This slide used to be much different by the way, and I had to rewrite this talk after I went to a bunch of talks here And that was kind of stressful for me But I have a lot of nice things to say now so Mtl sauce is done for you right Diego is gonna give you a cert and as I recently found out You can have Diego rotate that cert constantly for you up to every hour. That's amazing That kind of solves your problem, right? It also integrates with you a so people can off into it, which is nice It has built-in support for Bosch. It has built-in support for concourse And if you've been following credit hub development at all when they first announced credit hub and its integration with surface brokers There was a bit of a security concern that some of us in the community had that we're passing those credentials through tons of components and it wasn't very secure like why can't the apps just talk to credit hub and Since this spring they've solved that which is awesome It's another example of an active open-source project getting better while you're sleeping Credit up also has a detailed audit log currently. It's only in my sequel which can be a problem, but that is changing It also has spring credit hub integration So if you're using spring credit hub is an awesome option for you It has some downsides It does not yet have anything like parent child token relationships or automatic expiration via TTL, which is painful means you have to do it Or you have to figure out a way to rotate credentials without downtime or at least with minimal downtime because Credit hub is really right now relying on that fixed path I have to request a path if some of my containers have certain cred and some of them have another one When do I expire the old ones and these are the fun edge cases that come when you have to implement credential rotation? Mindshare is also right now at least confined to the CF community. So if you're using all CF or mostly CF That's great credit hub is probably the option you want to go with It does not yet have dynamic secret generation like vault does and I'm so it can't generate and expire credentials for you from third-party locations Maybe not a problem for you It's not yet integrated with CFCR. That's on the roadmap. There's only one storage back end as I mentioned There's only one audit back end, which is also my sequel So that can cause pain points. They're able to be worked around and like I said smart people working on this This is gonna get better How do we choose? So Like I said, if you're already using credit up today, and you don't have any of those concerns that I outlined Keep using credit Using vault today, and you want to answer this question? Is it possible to authenticate with a secret service without first seeding an app with a golden secret? What do you think? Let's talk about my favorite software. Yeah All right, I already talked to you about all the awesome things that vault can generate and expire secrets for This is a small list of those things There's you know infrastructure providers their services. There's things you can run yourself There's things that can be hosted elsewhere, and it also has really cool security primitives I would love to see these things integrated in credit hub or any other security software They're so awesome periodic tokens response wrapping in the cubby hole back end. Has anybody in here used one of these or more? Yes, yes talk to me awesome If you haven't let's review them. Okay typical vault tokens have a renewal time and a maximum lifetime and so That means that like, you know, you're using it and you can use it for so long and you could say you want it Some more but eventually it's gonna go away and that can be sad especially for long-running applications and containers periodic tokens do not have a max lifetime But usually what you do is you set a very short renewal time called the period on it So you might say that's 10 minutes 5 minutes 30 seconds if you're crazy and As long as whatever is using that token is calling out to vault and saying I am still using this token That token will live forever Very cool. You can also associate these periodic tokens with parent tokens, which can also be periodic tokens themselves And if you revoke the parent token All of its child tokens are evoked even if it's being renewed and the same goes for any periodic token If you have the assessor to it, you can revoke it even if it's being renewed Response wrapping is probably the closest thing that we're gonna get to those self-destructing spy messages you see in like get smart or mission impossible or like like In specter gadget, which was the get smart guy again Don Adams And this is built into vault. This requires no special configuration. It has a flag. So when you do a vault read Like that one there you just pass a flag wrap TTL and give it a time That's instead of giving you back the secret that you just requested it's gonna give you back a token that kind of looks like a good and That can fetch a single secret One time within that specified amount of time and that is so cool.  This is really cool because I don't know where that secret is coming from See the read has my path in it. The unwrap does not very awesome Cubby hole This is a private scoped key value store each token has their own no other token including the root token Can do anything with another tokens cubby hole You don't even know if there's anything in it You can do nothing with it when that token is destroyed whether it's revoked expired doesn't matter Everything inside the cubby hole goes away to use it all you do is you write something to cubby hole slash instead of secret slash That's it Let's put this all together If you're a big fan of Dwayne the Rock Johnson as I am or you have children You may have seen this scene. It is Maui Inside the movie Moana jumping into the realm of monsters and that is what we are gonna do. So let's do this Okay You probably remember From just a few short minutes ago that in order to use secrets at runtime the app needs to authenticate to vault and get a vault token some way We're gonna say it needs a user name and password This could be an MTLS start it could be a couple of other things app roles are very common ways for machines to authenticate with vault So that's what we're gonna go with for this example, but this could be anything So in order to do that we're gonna need to give it a role ID, which is not so secret and a secret ID We can't just give it to it, right? We need to conceal it in some way give it some cover hold to those two things we talked about in the beginning of this talk Frequent credential rotation clean up the old stuff Watching does it sound like anything? It should sound like these two features Cubby hole gives us a secret place nobody else can read it unless they've compromised your token Response wrapping gives us a single use token that is able to fetch a single secret One time We'll specify the amount of time and the corollary to that is that if something else reads it and you try to read it Oops, that's bad and you try to read it and you can't Something else did that's pretty cool That's this I tried to read it. I couldn't something else did very awesome. Wow, look at that Whoo, all right, we're gonna do this in a couple of pieces So first actually let's let's start here, right this orchestration API. This could be a service broker Could be Could be anything right? It could be an external service outside of Cloud Foundry. You need something That is kind of a snowflake Probably already have this If you're using vault that orchestration API is going to generate a periodic token Probably under a parent token that we scope in some granular level that where it makes us happy for revocation We're gonna inject that token into every application instance the same way we inject stuff into the environment and you say wait You're injecting a secret no because this token cannot do anything inside vault all it can access is its own cubbyhole Okay, so what? So now our orchestration API server is going to generate a secret user ID for the application to use But it's not going to read it like a monster It's going to get it as a wrap response And so what it's going to get back is something that can only be read once And it's going to stick it in that injected tokens cubby hole So it's using its weakness as a strength. It has to keep That injected token around to reboot these applications it has to keep that injected token its environment And so we're gonna put stuff in that injected tokens cubbyhole that is valid for such a small amount of time that if it's ever disclosed Good luck So a boot time the application is going to read that injected token from its environment And it's going to loop through the entry in its cubbyhole, and if it finds one that's awesome It now has its username and password so it can go about its business and get a negotiated token and start working with fault It's not going to do anything crazy like write that negotiated token back out to the environment or to disk or to s3 It's gonna just keep it in memory And if it loops through the whole array and it can't find a wraps response token that's valid it is gonna freak out We're gonna ping people We're gonna revoke the parent token We're gonna do some measured thing or we're in dev and we're gonna tweak our timeout because It happens it happens Once the app is running We have everything we need right we have that token that's in our environment That's now useless because we've read everything out of that array. So Nothing of value there read my environment. I don't care and we have the the negotiated token which is really important we're gonna keep in our memory and We're gonna pole vault with both those things and say ham using this I'm using this I'm using this and That's gonna help us out So that those things don't expire and remember when they do expire whether we do it or whether your app crashes Or whether you just shut down this whole deployment and all the apps are gone All of the secrets that they requested from those dynamic secrets back ends go with them I don't have to worry about like oh my god. What where are those even they're gone? Well, it does that for me. So One more time for people that like diagrams like this. I Wanted to deploy two instances of an application. I talked to my orchestration API talks to vault makes a periodic token for me Maybe it's gonna make a parent and store the assessor so that we can do revocations on some granular level and you have a little control here, right? It might be at basis might be org basis might be space basis, whatever you want Then it's gonna request a wrap response for the secret thing that whatever you're talking about needs to authenticate to vault And it's gonna stick that in the cubby hole And Diego is gonna do its normal thing.  We're gonna get it into our applications environment usually via Diego And now our apps gonna read that out of its environment loop through its cubby hole. So it's there Hopefully read something if it doesn't this is our break glass, right? This is where we would stop and and do something to notify somebody and revoke credentials Assuming it finds it. It's gonna then be able to authenticate to vault It's gonna say hey, can you know, can you actually give me a real token now, please? And it's gonna do that and then it can just talk to vault and it can go provision its secrets You can do anything it would normally do with vault and you can set roles all along the way, right? Like it doesn't have to have full free reign of all you can name space its paths you can Mount custom back-end for your service, whatever you want Once the apps running One it is gonna communicate to vault and do its normal thing requesting credentials. Now. Here's the cool part, right? I said automatic credential rotation was solved So what I mean by that is if you were to develop Something in your applications or a shared piece of code across all your applications like an SDK or just a library that you Want to share to connect to these things you could probably do in a source broker, too You'd say okay I want to I want to use these creds and your app is gonna get the creds and it's gonna start using them and It's gonna implement a small retry loop It's gonna go out. It's gonna try to communicate with these things to run a Query right on postgres site And it can't instead of just crashing and failing and being scared. It's gonna go hold on Let me try to Negotiate new credentials with that same secrets back-end Which should be able to do because it already has a negotiated token to off to vault to generate as many creds as it wants vaults expired my postgres credentials because I was really like nice and I wrote a role that made sure that my Dynamic back-end was expiring my credentials every 30 minutes or something wilds making security people so happy and My application is gonna get new creds and keep going on with its life And so that's not bad that gives us credential rotation We don't have that any downtime We just have a little retry loop and of course if it can't do that Then we probably don't need to trigger break glass But we might want to crash the app and crashing the app depending on how many instances there are will cause that beginning Large diagram to happen again If a single app instance crashes This is what's gonna happen. We're gonna listen to that crash event number one Which we can do right Diego emits events that say something just crashed we listen to that number two We reach out to vault when we say hey, I need a new wrapped response For for for secret ID.  It's gonna find it or it's not we're gonna freak out If it does Then number five is gonna go about its business as it was when the app was running fine There's two risks that I can think about here The first I kind of touched on a little right something reads the cubby hole It's problematic But only for a very small amount of time If you're aggressive with your credential rotations, you're making it really hard like yeah I exfiltrated those creds and now I want to go use them But maybe they're not valid because they have a really short TTL kind of nice And most of the time unless you have an adversary who can like willfully crash your apps and keep them crashed before something else in your monitoring catches like Huh this app that communicates postgres has been down for a couple hours now and it keeps going down I mean something should notify you something's not quite right there, right? The second risk is that something compromises an application's periodic token does something reckless writes to disk Something can like debug your app in real time and get out of its active memory. Whatever that token is That's kind of bad because we wouldn't know But If we concourse or something cool To redeploy our applications regularly and part of that redeployment Was going through and revoking the parent token that we created at the very beginning of this that has never left our orchestration API All those credits will be revoked for us So again, I haven't totally solved it. Maybe it can't be solved But we've significantly increased the difficulty and like there is always an easier target in the enterprise space especially So I think That is my modest proposal of how we can solve this if any of that seems like too much So his legacy technology that you can use to keep yourself safe Miraculously, I think we have maybe time for one question Or or a couple more and and you can harangue me in the back about vault literally the rest of the night Any questions? Oh, it's so easy Great. Thank you so much for coming to my talk. I'll hang around back there And I I love really talking about this because I don't know why but I just do


Hello and welcome to the channel. So I just want to give you a bit of a view of my in-ground potato patch here. And I have been using the root stout method for the past three or four years where I just pile up the straw and hay in the fall and in the spring I just pull back some of this straw and hay. Place my potatoes directly on the ground. Don't bury them in and then just cover them up with more straw or hay. This has been working really well. Another really good benefit of using this method is I've been building up a really nice soil beneath all this straw and I'm going to take you up close and show you how over the past few years all of those leaves and straw and organic material has broken down and it's really created a nice soil underneath all of this straw. So today I'm also going to run you through my drip irrigation setup that I've got going here. As you can see I have some emitter hose strung throughout the garden. I've kind of got it placed out so that I will be doing about eight rows of potatoes and there will be a emitter hose dripping nearby each of those potatoes, which I think is going to really improve the harvest hopefully come fall of my potatoes. For the most part using the roof stout method is a way of kind of retaining that moisture so you don't have to water as often. We've had a really dry couple years last year you know I did need to add some water to this area even though you know I had it covered in straw. It just got so dry. So I figure you know putting in an irrigation system once it's in place is a hands-off watering method that I hope to spread throughout my whole garden here and I will take you step by step as I expand throughout the garden into my containers and other areas of where I'll be planting this year. So I have three kinds of potatoes chitting up this year. I got some Yukon Gold, some Red Norland and some Russets. So I purchased these three kinds of potatoes locally about three weeks ago. They are Saskatchewan grown seed potatoes and I see that they have lots of good sprouting happening on each of them. So it's time to get them in the ground and get them growing. So I'm hoping you can kind of see here. I have turned on the drip irrigation and this emitter hose has emitters every 18 inches. So when I plant the potatoes I'm just going to plant them about 18 inches apart near each of these emitters, then they can get the full benefit of that water. I believe the suggested spacing for potatoes is more around 12 inches, but because like I said, I have these emitters every 18. I think I'll just use that as my spacing guide. I am going to try and just bury these down a little bit. You can see we've got the sprouts here. So try to make it so at least some of them are pointing upwards. So as you can see here, now I've got them planted up. I think I've got nine in my rows here. You can see how the dripping is already getting to those potatoes. So I'm going to start off by burying the potatoes only. I won't be burying the dripping emitter, but I will be covering it up probably with a little bit of the hay and straw ones. Everything's ready to be covered up. So now that I've got the potatoes covered up, I'm just going to kind of lift this hose just so it sits on top. I don't want it to get plugged up and hopefully the moisture will soak through. I'm also going to secure it with some of these steaks that I purchased on Amazon just to kind of keep it in place. Okay, so two rows of potatoes planted and four more to go. Okay, so I just wanted to give you a visual of how I have my irrigation system set up and this whole configuration here is pretty much a basic setting that you would have to use for any type of drip irrigation such as what I just set up with my potatoes or if you're going to be using emitters or different types of sprayers in your containers. This is kind of your starting point of what you need to get going. So I'll just take you in on a close-up here of the setup. So first of all, you have your water source coming from your well or your house wherever you have a tap and this is the battery operated timer, which is just an optional part of this system, but I highly recommend it. You can obviously use it for when you're away. You can set the timer so it waters automatically while you're away from home or you can also manually set it for a certain time so you don't forget to shut it off. So I think that's very handy. And then after the timer here, we have this filtering system here. So this is good to have especially if you're using well water or rain water to filter that water, make sure there's no small particles of dirt or minerals or anything coming from your water that might clog up your irrigation system. And then after your filter piece here, you have the pressure regulator, which is also very important to have for an irrigation system. So what this does is just slows down the water pressure coming from your system here because coming out of the tap, it is way too high a pressure and it would just blow out a lot of your irrigation lines. So this reduces the water pressure down to 15 to 20 psi, I believe. And then after that, you have this converter piece that just converts from a garden hose attachment to the three quarter inch piping here. So this is going to be the start, the main starting point of your irrigation system here. So when I first was setting up and planning out my irrigation system, my hope was that I'd be able to use rain water that I collect in this IBC tote. We have a runoff here from this garden shed that collects rain water, plus we have several rain barrels at the house that get filled up really fast in a rainstorm. And so we just pump it into this tank.  I couldn't seem to get a good flow throughout all my lines, just even in the potato garden here. It wasn't really taking the water all the way to the end of that system. So that was a fail. So from there, I tried using this submersible pump. This is how I've been watering my garden. Most of the time it's hooked to a garden hose. It runs on electricity. I submersed it into this tank and then I can just, you know, hand water with my watering wand. So I thought maybe this could work if I plug it into a timer and kind of run it the same way. But the other problem with rain water is it is very dirty. There was a lot of, you know, build up of LJ and leaves and dirt and bugs all in the rain water. So that clogged up my filtering system within like 20 minutes. So plan B didn't work. So plan C was to have to use well water. So we have a well set up really close to the garden here. And as you can see, we got a Y connection on it because we use this come summertime when the cattle move out to our land here. We use it to run it to their water trough and it's got a super amount of pressure. So it does work with an irrigation system really well. So I have my hose connected up to it and then connected here to the irrigation timer system. So the one downfall of using well water is that we don't really have the best water. It's got a lot of alkali in it. I think I'm going to maybe get it tested because I'm just not sure how it's going to affect my plants and the soil over the long term. But until I get a better filtering system figured out for my rain water, we're going to go with the well water for now and see how it works on the garden. So as you can see here, I got that three quarter inch line heading over to my potato patch and then I put in a tea fixture. It's one of the parts that you want to make sure you get when you're purchasing all your items for your irrigation is these on-off valves. You definitely want to set one up on each of your zones so that you can pick and choose where you want to water and not waste water in areas where they don't need to be watered. So by putting in this tea fixture that gives me the option to move on and set up another area with some irrigation. So that's where this three quarter inch line is leading us now and I'm just getting things ready to set up in my containers. So I'm really hoping this irrigation system is going to be a huge time saver for me. I found that last year I was spending every evening out watering for you know over an hour and it was just taking away from all the other things that you want to get done in your garden like weeding and fertilizing and just kind of working on your plants. So you can stay tuned and keep watching. I will keep updating you on how my irrigation system is going. It's kind of like Lego you know you get all the parts and you can just keep going and building and creating all sorts of different watering systems. So I'm hoping this is going to be a really good time saver for me this summer. So I hope you enjoyed watching me setting up my irrigation system and getting the potatoes planted under straw here in the garden. I will keep you updated on the growth progress of all of my vegetables. Please leave a comment hit that like button and don't forget to subscribe so that you don't miss out on future videos coming to the channel. Thanks for watching and happy gardening.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, a company live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we've got about 24 minutes to go until the opening bell. Another big morning of economic data. We've got retail sales out there weaker than the market expected. We've got producer prices, wholesale prices dropping the most in two and a half years as the headline I saw. We got that number 36 minutes ago at 8.30 a.m. this morning. Let's just drill it down to a minute. Minute charts on the S&P so you can see the initial spike higher to 45-41. We drive down to 45-20. We're just above that level right now. You've still got markets in positive territory. S&P futures up by 13 points right now, trading at 45-24. We've got the NASDAQ 100. You see the volatility there, up above 16,000. We came into that number right at about 16,000. We're just under the 16,000 price point. You still get the NASDAQ 100, up by more than half a percent, up by 82 points at 15,962. You get the Dow right now, up by about two-tenths percent, just under 35,000, 34,948. The Russell, positive by three at 1,809. We jump over to crude, trading a bit lower off 86 pennies at 77-40. Getting some volatility. Check out that volatility. I was going to say we got some action in yields. We got some action in the dollar index, somewhat reverse in what we had happening yesterday. These are minute charts just to illustrate the volatility. Since 8.30 a.m. this morning, let's back it up to a 10-minute chart so you can see the spike we got yesterday on the CPI number and the spike we're getting today. A little bit of a reversal on the PPI number and retail sales. We're going to break down these numbers in a moment. You could call it the main event, yields, all in focus. It was a rip-roaring rally, man. I think that was the test of that channel line. At least that's what I'm going with until the market proves me wrong. But right now, we are well above that channel line, decisive break yesterday. We get a little pullback today. But all things considered, man, we're talking about right now a 10-year yield, sitting right at 4.5%, even with that little pullback. We're still sitting right at 4.5% the yield on the 10-year. And we have the two-year treasury yields actually rising. Yeah, let's see. Let's pull it up. Let's pull up the yield curve for a moment. Come on, cooperate with me here. Co-operate, one. Sorry, my screen's clicking a little bit, and there's the yield curve. Yeah, so yields up across the board. Check it out, man. You got the two-year right now approaching 4.9 up by seven basis points. And you got the 10-year just above 4.5, I mentioned, up about seven basis points as well. All right, let's jump into some of the retail sales. Now, it's going to be a great program, man. We got a couple great guests lined up. We got our man, Kevin Hinks. He's coming up after the first break. We talked to him every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We got our man, Teddy Kegstad. Great day to talk to Teddy with some currency action, some yield movement on the heels of yesterday as well. We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. So two great interviews for the program. But let's get into it. We kick things off with retail sales. Retail sales fall by less than forecast ahead of the holidays. So the market was looking for quite a pullback here. Retail sales month over month. They were looking for a 0.3% decline. They only get a 0.1% decline. Excluding autos and gas, which have really pulled back. Gasoline, we know autos have been pulling back as well, from some of the other data points we've got out there. They were looking for a 0.2% increase. You get a 0.1% increase in the control group, month over month, right in line at 0.2%. Seven of 13 categories posted declines led by furniture and car dealers. Gas sales weren't as big of a drag on the headline number as feared, considering how much pump prices fell in the month. Meanwhile, outlays increased at personal care and grocery stores. Food, right? Is food ever gonna go back to a normal pricing? I don't think so, man. The so-called control group, which control group sales, and that is used to calculate GDP and excludes food services, auto dealers, building material stores, and gas stations rose 0.2%, suggesting the fourth quarter is off to a decent start. Yeah, the U.S. consumer, man, just powering forward. So we get retail sales this morning, slightly off where the market was thinking. Gasoline, a big number in there, in terms of not as big of a drag as the markets were thinking originally, but nonetheless. Now, these are unadjusted for inflation. I think about that. The retail sales number, the value of retail purchases, unadjusted for inflation is decreasing. Now, the next part of that, though, is we just got inflation yesterday. It was unadjusted for inflation, but what was the CPI headline yesterday? Zero. There's no inflation. You don't need to adjust it. I'm paraphrasing, I'm ballparking, okay? I'm generalizing. But month over month, when you're seeing these numbers, because at first I started thinking, oh, unadjusted for inflation. Wow, that really, no. It doesn't on a month over month basis, man, because on a month over month basis, on the CPI, we're basically at zero right now. That was the number yesterday, okay? So unadjusted for inflation, not as big of a discrepancy as you might think if you were adjusting numbers for inflation. Nonetheless, man, we got a pullback market, digesting these numbers right now as we come into Wednesday trading. And it's gonna be interesting to see what kind of a pullback we potentially get with 20 points off the high right now. All the pressure has been to the upside, man. But boy, we got some optimism built into this market when you just traded up 400 points, we're approaching one, eight, nine percent acceleration just from where we were less than three weeks ago in this market. And so I imagine we're gonna have to digest some of that. But I talked about it on the program yesterday, man. 46.34 seems like the next stop, right? You just take on a Fibonacci basis, where that acceleration began to lower prices, okay? October 17th, you traded from a price point of about 44.20, you drive down to a low of 41.22, the one to 1.618 expansion of that pullback, right? We've gotten 100% of it back, but we're already pushing 45.20. You get up about 4,600 and you're at the one to 1.618 expansion, okay? That's also correlating to the recent highs you got back in July, probably the next point this market's going for, man. Now, where do yields go to get the market there? That's what I'm not quite sure of yet. The relationship here is pretty interesting. When you look at, I mean, you know, what happens? Yesterday, yields pulled back dramatically while the market goes up 2%. Today, you have yields going back up a bit while the markets are up nonetheless, okay? Market readjusting on a temporary basis at least to what we've seen happen on the economic data. But boy, it's pretty interesting where 20 ticks off of the high yesterday where we were at 9.30 in the morning, right? 20 ticks we've given up from that spike. We came into that CPI number at about 107.15 and we're sitting at 108.10 right now on the 10 year. You jump over to the dollar index. As I mentioned, talking to our man, Teddy Kakes at 40 past the hour. Always a good conversation, but I love that we talked to him on Wednesdays because we usually get some good data occasionally and today's a good one for sure with retail sales out there and yields moving and dollar moving. Quite the pullback yesterday as you got the dollar driving the action down from 105.57 down to 104 yesterday and just a barely a blip higher as the dollar index continuing to weigh. All right, folks, stay tuned. It's gonna be quite a day in the markets. Quite a day. Every day it seems like right now with volatility. And why not?  We get the VIX right now. We got a 13 handle on that spike yesterday. We're sitting relatively low right next to the lows of yesterday at 15, 16, stay tuned folks. We'll be coming back about our man, Kevin Hinks from the Schwab Network fast market right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader, Larry Pezzavento, on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com Educating Investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award winning newsletter, Mastering Probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back folks, we've got the S&P Futures trailing off a bit. We're off by single digits right now. Still positive by nine points trading at 45, 20. We're about 20 points off of that spike high though. To talk about some of the market action this morning let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks. Every trading day folks, 12 noon Eastern time from the Schwab network fast market with your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White. And let's just jump right into it. Kevin we got some data yesterday. We got some data again today. Yields kind of reverberating a bit. What do you think of the data this morning? Good morning Kevin Hinks. Good morning Tommy and Brian. You know I look at everything as you know Tommy from a prism of trading. And sometimes when you have a big day yesterday you're just looking for to hold on to what you had and stay stable. So the data we got today is solid. The PPI number was disinflationary. The retail sales was firm to better than expected with revisions to last month so even stronger. So I think the data today is good mortgage apps. We're a second week in a row of positive mortgage apps. I think the dollar is higher today because the UK inflation data that came out overnight was weaker than they thought it would be. So that's a good sign over in the UK that their inflation's coming down. That being said Tommy, you know the numbers all, the futures all spiked when the number came out but they've eased back down to very modest gains and the ruffles actually unchanged now. It's pretty wild in terms of just the market moves we get on the instant that those numbers came out. You may yesterday just staggering movements on the thinkorswim platform. I got it up on that 830 number yesterday morning. We got spikes again, like you mentioned this morning. Not quite as dramatic. What do you think about the pullback in the price of the fixed income as in we have yields rising again a little bit today, Kevin but that's not mattering with the market, right? Yesterday yields dropped pretty dramatically on that CPI number. The market goes up two to 3% depending on what you're looking at. This morning we have a little bit of a pullback there but still we have the NASDAQ 100 night right now sitting up about half a percent. Is this market right now, Kevin? You know, tied to yields, I'm trying to wrap my brain around how we actually have yields moving in the opposite direction of yesterday not getting the full move back of course but it's not stopping the market and we got positive prices. How are you looking at that relationship right now with yields moving kind of differently as to yesterday and the market just loving it either way right now. But I think we live right now in a trading environment that's a very microwave trading environment where one good, the momentum that stayed in the market yesterday all day was pretty incredible but high frequency trading will do that. They take things to the final destination almost quicker than the move there. There's very few grinding moves now, right? That trading yesterday was a gap up to those levels. So I think you have to adjust the way you look at these markets and trade them based on high frequency trading and electronic trading and how quickly things get from not point A to point B but point A to point Z frankly, Tommy. Yeah, they didn't leave much room man. They digested that CP high print and markets crawled a bit throughout the day to higher price but boy that move happened almost in an instant yesterday morning. With that Kevin, we had all of that economic data that kind of gets sucked out of the market. We still got some retail sales, excuse me, retail companies that you guys were talking about yesterday. We got some earnings coming out. We march forward from here. Do you guys have any equities? You're talking about our fast market coming up at 12 today, Kevin? Yeah, we got more good names coming out with earnings. Some after the bell today like Palo Alto Networks in Cisco and then we've got Walmart tomorrow morning. That should be a revenue number for 90 days that's bigger than some small countries. So it's gonna be an impressive number but Walmart's had a nice run and look at the bar for Walmart is kind of high based on the run they've had. We talked a lot on yesterday show about a low bar for earnings versus a high bar for earnings and just look at the price action in Target that had a very low bar for earnings and TJX that had a very high bar for earnings. Both came out with good numbers but Target's up big based on that and TJX is down slightly on their numbers. So yeah, I think there's a pretty high bar for Walmart's earnings tomorrow but we got great news in Target overnight or this morning and so yeah, over these but I like networks to obviously cyber security. That's always a fun one to look at. Yeah, I was taking a look at the chart and Walmart as you were talking about it, boy. So much for the pullback of last year, right? With that stock dropped out of thin air basically from 160 down to below 120 and it's been a one way trip basically to all time highs pushing 169, 167 this week coming into that earnings event. Kevin, I appreciate the time as always on a busy morning. We'll be watching Fast Market at 12 today and we look forward to talking to you tomorrow, man. Thanks for your time. Always pleasure folks, check it out, you heard it. They're talking three great stocks, Palo Alto Networks. Yeah, and how about Walmart, right? How about that chart of Walmart? You're talking about a company, you jump over to the Analyze tab, okay? You jump over to the Fundamentals tab. You're looking at about a $5.20 move priced into their earnings on either direction. If you jump over to the entire week you're talking about about just slightly over that level. $5.44 is the move priced in for their earnings this week. Not too large of a move for a pretty stable company but expectations gonna be even higher now with what Target did. And that's a perfect segue to jump into those target numbers because boy, you talk about a pullback, man. Pretty remarkable. So many companies give up the entire COVID acceleration, right? Disney comes to mind. Companies that actually traded back to a time and place in history where, I mean, remember the uncertainty and the fear that took place was right around my birthday during COVID. My birthday is March 20th, folks. And I think schools in Florida shut down like March 15th, 16th, 17th, something like that in 2020. It was just a few days prior to my birthday. And we kind of all knew it was coming a little bit. Things were creeping up. I remember saying to the people in my household on a Friday, it was Thursday night, I think. Let's back it up for two seconds here as we come in. We got five minutes till the next break. I'm gonna have to go back that far pretty quickly. Let's see if I can get back here. We go, we're in 2021 and every click is a month which is crazy. Okay, it was March 13th, I believe, the week before my third birthday. And I remember saying to the kids in my household on Thursday the 12th, I believe so. I think so, right? I remember saying, hey, tomorrow's probably the last day you're gonna be in school. I would take anything out of the locker that you have on Friday and make sure you bring it home. And that's basically what happened. We were closed down by the 16th, 17th and Florida. Things changed state by state. Nonetheless, point being, right? Target almost back to COVID lows, man, when we didn't even know if the economy was gonna exist, Disney in the same accord. But guess what? This morning, you're catching a little bit of a lift for context here. We're up by $16, percentage-wise, quite a move. But on this chart, you see where my cursor is, right? We're basically just back to the lows of where we were in June on this equity. But yes, a low bar for Target and they beat what's gonna happen is you get Target up by $16. That's only put in a lift of about 50 pennies. And that's with a positive market here, okay? In Walmart shares and for some context here, okay? Target started yesterday at 108. Target had a nice day yesterday already coming into their earnings event. So Walmart's gonna have some lofty expectations coming out with their numbers. And as I mentioned, about a $5 move priced in for Walmart on their earnings after the bell tonight. All right, folks, don't miss the opening bell. We're coming back in three minutes. The market is gonna be digesting. Retail sales. We're gonna talk about producer prices when we get back. Haven't talked about those yet. We'll take a look at some of the Magnificent 7. We'll take a look at yields as well. And then don't forget, Teddy Kegstad coming up at 40 pass. Don't go away, folks, we'll be right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks, we got markets open, you got an S&P futures up by about 14 points right now trading at 45, 25, NASDAQ 100.  Get the doll up 98 points in the Russell and positive territory by two. Crude, off a dollar, excuse me, dollar on the dot. At 77.24, we check in on gold, pulling back to 1966 and we gotta check in on yields, man. The 10-year right now, off by about 16 ticks at 108.13, that of course putting some strength in the dollar as we have yields rising, right? We have the price of the 10-year pulling back, we have yields rising, you have slight dollar strength, but boy, it's very interesting to look at the pullback we got in the dollar versus what a yield chart looks like in terms of the 10-year, it's a price chart, okay? But boy, the dollar just holding up so well, I'm gonna ask Teddy about that coming up at 40 past the hour, just rip roaring pullback on the dollar index and we basically got no lift, right? The dollar index is right back where we were at 11.30 a.m. yesterday and in comparison there at 11.30 just for some context, we were right near 108.25, so you've basically had the 10-year pullback, 10 to 12 ticks on the price it's trading at and the dollar's sitting right at that level right now, it's quite a pullback in the dollar index. All right, let's jump around to some of the equities with action this morning, we talked about targets, see how they open 13.3% to the positive side. We jump around some of the fang stocks, Amazon, up by 7.10%, Apple shares up by 4.10% this morning, you jumped to Microsoft, up by 4.10 as well, we always talk about Google. My man Tommy, he's not joined us this morning, he was with me the last couple days, pretty remarkable how often people in the household are watching YouTube these days in every household and that is just one facet of Google's business. I always talk about now, there's always a multiple you can buy something at, you can sell something at, the multiples on YouTube, if it went public by itself right now would probably be astronomical, so be careful, I was saying, there's Kevin, we just talked to Kevin, he's a great expression, I'm gonna surmise it, okay, I may chop it up in terms of the words, but basically the sentiment is there's a price that I'd be willing to buy an equity at, any equity at and there's a price that I'd be willing to sell any equity at, okay, because any equity can become overpriced and underpriced, and that has to do with multiples generally.  So, PPI, wholesale prices fall 0.5% in October for the biggest monthly drop since April of 2020, there it is, two and a half years. Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October, now, these can be particularly volatile and they don't always trickle down to the CPI numbers, but it's a core component, right? And I say core, no pun intended. The prices producers are paying, somewhere down the line translates to consumer prices in some fashion, it has to, okay? The producer price index, which measures final demand costs for business declined 0.5% from the month, market was looking for a 0.1% increase, excluding food and energy, core PPI unchanged, they were looking for a 0.3% increase, if you include food, if you exclude, excuse me, if you exclude food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.1%, always interesting how they're cherry picking, what they're taking in and out. Nonetheless, they talk about retail sales a little bit in there as well. Jumping over to mortgage demand, Kevin referenced this as well, climbs to the highest level in five weeks, not that long ago, right? After interest rates move lower, average rate 7.61, same as last week when I was on this program telling you about it, applications to refinance a home increased 2% for the week and were 7% higher than the same week a year ago. Folks, I love this raise, I say it all the time, percentages on small numbers can be deceiving, okay? The numbers of people who are refinancing is a very small number. So when you start talking about percentage increases and you start talking about a 2% increase on a small number, you start talking about a 7% increase on a small number, they can be very deceiving because they in themselves can be very small numbers, obviously applications for mortgage to purchase a home increased 3% from the previous week and were 12% lower than the same week a year ago. Those conforming loan balances $726,000 or less is the number there, but mortgage demand up by 2.8% last week, okay? And yeah, 7.61% is the number with points decreasing to about 0.67 and that is for a 20% down payment conforming loan. Yeah, not surprising, but be careful of these types of statements, man, okay? Be careful of reading about refinancing a home loan increasing 2% for the week and 7% higher than a year ago because those are very small numbers and percentages on small numbers folks don't give you the whole picture to put it lightly. All right, let's talk a little bit about those target earnings, man. Earnings overshadow sales decline. Yeah, holiday gift items under $25 to attract value focused shoppers is what they're looking for.  He's not on the program today, but boy, he loves Target, man. And we've turned it into a little bit of a Toys R Us experience, right? They get the game systems in there, we go in there, we play with the music sound systems, we like to bump some beats, we like to play DJ in the music aisle. It's a great user experience, but I've talked about, man, Target is expensive, man. Period, end of sentence. But nonetheless, let's get into the numbers. Comp sales fell almost 5% in the three months ended October 28th from the year prior, big numbers, man. Earnings though, growing 36% to almost a billion dollars in the third quarter added, aided by tight inventory and expense management. Analysts had expected earnings of 6.85. Now, as somebody that's in Target all the time, okay? And I only have a few sections of the store that I'm pervading, okay? Surveying, we go into, of course, the toy section. Very familiar with the toy section. I go into the men's clothing section, I go into the kids' clothing section, okay? The toy section for the boys, for the kids, okay? Not for the boys, for the kids in general, and we like the dinosaurs, we like Lightning McQueen, okay? I did notice that I said that, man, it's remarkable that they weren't refurbishing it that often, right? We go in there all the time, and of course, I'm looking for new toys for Tommy to play with, not to buy, okay? Just to play with, to survey. And what was happening was they weren't doing it, man. The shelves were kind of empty, but I knew from being in the market that, guess what, man, okay, they're getting rid of all this inventory, okay? They're not playing these games anymore, that they're just gonna keep stocking inventory, keep stocking the shelves, they're getting rid of the inventory, and what I'm in there often enough that I see it happen, they put them on the shelves, they give them a period of two months, something like that, and then they start discounting them right away, and they discount them, and they discount them until that product's gone, and they make room for the next one, but it was interesting how some of those shelves were a little bit bare, and I found myself saying, do you know what, man, they're getting rid of all these goods. We know they had an inventory problem, and there you go. The numbers say it, man. Yeah, earnings. Why tight inventory and expense management? 971 million, the market likes it. Stay tuned, folks, we're coming back with our man, Teddy Kakes, that don't go away. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tygruses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tygruses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on U.S. large-cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS, directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs, direction leveraged ETFs? An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call<PHONE_NUMBER> or visit Direction Investments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the fund is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. Right now we get the S&Ps up by about 11 points. Little bit of volatility there. We get the dollar index right now up about 30 pennies at 104.36. To talk about some of the action, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, you can check out Teddy's Tiger Forex Report. He puts out new issues every Monday with updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check that out on the front page of TFNN under the newsletter tab. And don't forget about the webinars he's got under the services tab at TFNN. You can check out capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads as well as his Japanese candlestick patterns, stock and option strategies webinars, both of those available under the services tab for 97 bucks. They're archived. You can watch them as many times as you like. And boy, we got some action. Let's jump into it. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Boy, it's been quite 48 hours in this market, almost 24 hours in this market from that CPI print we got yesterday, Teddy. Where do you want to kick things off, man? Well, we definitely had some explosive volatility yesterday. Obviously, we hammered a big lower move low on the dollar index. I mean, right now you have the US dollar as well as yields in a corrective mode right now. I think overall, there's no confirmation of a trend reversal, that's for sure. I think that the hype of it all, especially with rates is getting way ahead of themselves as far as where the yield curve is or is not going. But I think that the volatility is very reflective. I mean, you had a two and a half handle move in the 10 year, excuse me, in the 30 year and a huge move in the 10 year last year or last yesterday. So of course the dollar is gonna get sacked like it did. But if you look at the levels like we had, especially in the Tiger Forex report, we're coming into very corrective areas. So the target levels are nice. Now we had an extreme move yesterday. I was looking for us to creep up to these levels over three to five trading sessions, not in one. So that volatility factor, I think that's something that needs to be paid attention to. We had extreme volatility off of not new, and the news wasn't anything that should have sparked that kind of volatility. So I think you're running extremes right now. You probably squeezed out a lot of weak longs and shorts yesterday, especially with that interest rate move. And I think that you can see the pullback today is profit taking just off of yesterday. But I'd be cautious with these new higher move highs and lower move lows, especially in the FX pairs because the question is, if it's a correction, while we're bottoming and topping out, we're not reversing trend, and that's what you really have to pay attention to. Do you find yourself, Teddy, trying to do the math on the Fed and where they go from here? I mean, that's a lot of focus, of course. We had Chairman Powell the prior week, and then of course you got economic data on the Friday, and then we have the CPI, and we got PPI week number today. A lot of conversation, of course, is about what the market's pricing in maybe for even cuts next year.  But are you trying to work that out in your head, or are you just kind of looking at the currencies and the momentum and the trends that they're working on right now? Great question, long-term, absolutely. I'm looking at that. I mean, if the Fed, even if they don't go dovish, just the fact that they would say that they're stopping, you know, whether it's three, six months or just not indefinitely, but they're, you know, say, let's say we're gonna stop, and we're not gonna think of being hawkish unless the numbers really go back the way they were. If we're in a situation like that, and I think that's pretty much where we're going to be a member, we got an election year next year, and we have over $8 trillion. See, our Fed and our Treasury Department in their ultimate genius over the last five years into 10 years, they financed everything like they did in the 90s under the Clinton administration. They use one through five, 10-year notes to finance the whole of government. You don't do that. You do that when you want to window-dress your own balance sheet. You know, that's where you got your, you know, supposed surplus back in the 90s that there was a synthetic move because of interest rates. Now we're gonna pay the price next year. We have 8.1 trillion coming due in the next 12 months before Christmas of next year, as well as the next two to three trillion we're gonna tack on just for regular spending for 2024. That's not including anything else they asked for, for Ukraine, Israel, the illegal aliens, you know. So that's a lot of money for us the Treasury market to absorb, you know. So I think that right now, especially, the Fed is looking at that issue. They're like, well, how are we gonna raise 10 to 12 trillion? That's a trillion dollars a month they basically have to raise starting in January.  You're not gonna get anyone to invest in bonds. Your auctions are gonna get crushed. You know, not to mention, hopefully they're gonna do it in 30 year notes, you know, because even at the racer at now, it's gonna be a lot better than if they keep raising rates over the next five to six years and they keep doing what they're doing. You're looking at having more bills come due in five to 10 years at absorbent rates, you know, refinancing, you know. So hopefully fiscal responsibility hits the Fed and also the Treasury Department because otherwise we're gonna have a really big problem with the credit markets, you know. And what is that gonna do to the dollar? Well, it could actually make the dollar an extreme bull but the value of the dollar is gonna collapse and the velocity of money is gonna collapse as well. So that doesn't, so that means that it doesn't matter how strong the dollar is because inflation is just gonna just outweigh it, you know. So hopefully that's not the situation but that's what's looming. So that's where I'm looking in the long-term forecast and short-term I still think that you have to think that there's possibly another quarter point between now and the next two to three Fed meetings before they go on a pausing cycle. So that means we're probably capping where as far as how high the 30 year and 10 year and even the short-term rates are gonna rally, you know, I would watch, I think you'll probably see a lot of action in the smaller interest rates, you know, like the short terms, like the euro dollars and the ones, two, three, and five year notes and stuff like that. So I think that's where your volatility is gonna be but if I'm right in that scenario with the bigger interest rate contracts, that means the dollar is gonna get into a range trade probably for the next three to six months that's gonna be established but I don't think that we've seen the high in the dollar index yet, you know, just in also I don't think we've seen the low, you know, in the treasuries either. I think there's still one more spike. Even if it doesn't take out the lows, we should probe those bottoms before we have a confirmation of at least ending the hawkish stance by the Fed. Yeah, and it is interesting. Maybe we, you know, we're getting quite a pullback. We're already, what, 22 ticks? I got the 10 year offer where we were trading at last night. Quite an interesting pullback but the market doesn't care man. Market going higher picking up on yesterday's acceleration. What do you think about crude? All the talk, you know, crude 77 handle. What do you think of the price action in crude this morning? You know what, I like the stability right now. I just don't think it's, I'm not bearish on crude. I think right now you're in a consolidating range trade. I'm still bullish, especially with geopolitical tensions and we're also heading into winter time. You know, I can't imagine that commodity prices are going to stay stable to even deflating over the next three to six months. And I think that as long as if those trends continue, I can't see how you're not gonna see a spike in oil. Now, let's say that we have an abnormally warm winter. Maybe, maybe then that would keep things better. But if we have especially a cold winter, some major storms that hit the US depending on, especially like the Northeast, you know, and things like that. Or even let's say things happen in Texas like happened over the past couple of years, you know? Like if those temperature extremes hit those areas, well, then I can see a nice spike in oil for sure, you know? So because you're just gonna, the demand I think will be increasing that. And we could still see another pop, you know? And now if the Middle East keeps on blowing up, then $100 oil is still on the charts. And I can't believe it's Thanksgiving already next week. But we'll probably talk to you next Wednesday. One more time before the holiday. Teddy, I appreciate it as always man. Have a great week. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. Okay, take care, Tommy. Take care, Teddy. Stay tuned, we'll be right back for one more segment. Don't go away. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. Watch out for this market today, man. We got weakness. We got the S&Ps up by nine points right now, but boy, I was jumping around during the break. We got the Nasdaq 100. We're giving up some of those gains, man. Look where we were at 830 and look where we were even on the opening bell up to 15,965, so only a slight move, but boy, when I was jumping around through some of these fang size, Apple, of course, holding up well, man. Almost maybe a place of safe haven, as is the case usually, right?  You just sold off, what, three to $4 on Microsoft shares on the open. How about Nvidia? From 500 to 487, you give up 12 bucks like that and Nvidia is off by 1.7% right now. Amazon shares just traded from 148 to 145. You were near 147 on the open. I mean, check it out, man. Amazon gives back all of yesterday's acceleration. You came into the CPI number at 143. We're now below 145 for Amazon shares. What else we got? Tesla shares up 7.10% right now. Meta shares down 410. And look at these pullbacks, man. Be careful in this market and yields in focus, absolutely remarkable. We're at 108.07, man. We are within that first acceleration that we got right at 830 yesterday. Market's giving it up. Excuse me, as we got the 10-year right now, negative by 22 ticks as I speak right now. And what is that pushing? That's probably gonna be pushing, let's see. No, that's not the one I wanted. All right, let me find it real quick. Man, and as that's talking, I'm seeing a headline that the GM workers, all right, the yield on the 10-year right now, 4.53%. Okay, and let's jump over to GM as we end the program. Yeah, down about 8.10%. GM union workers appear poised to vote down the record. UAW deal. The workers want more. They want more. They're not satisfied. This market's not satisfied, man, as the market's trade lower. Stay tuned, folks. Thanks so much for starting your trading day off right here. We got our man Basil Chapman coming up next with the Tiger Technicians Hour. Steve Rhodes, live at 11, fast market at 12. Larry will be doing a show at one. He's in their live trading right now. Great workshop going on. Mr. Pezzamint does in there at 8 in the morning before my program. And let's end it with the VIX Volatility Index at 14.16. Stay tuned, folks. Basil's up next. Have a great Wednesday. We'll talk to you tomorrow, folks.