Absolutely at first glance you might think where does transforming the census fit into this story but I hope that you're about to see that it fits really centrally into the story that we've just been talking about. So a little bit of context as to why I'm doing this presentation. Although I'm involved in NCRM and Administrative Data Research Centre for a long time I was the coordinator of ESRC's census program which doesn't exist now it's part of the UK data service which is why UK data service appears in some of these slides later on as well and for about 25 years in one way or another I've worked with ONS on aspects of census and my main interest as a geographer is in georeferencing small areas zone design. This presentation is not about that. What I'm aiming to do is to give you an insight into how some of this administrative data linkage that we've just been talking about is going to make 2021 census look extremely different to 2011 and in fact some of the things that are going on right now are likely to lead to new data and different data becoming available within a general census frame that might be useful to you even before we get to 2021. I want to do a quick straw. I'm not going to let you doze off at this point. A quick straw, I've got some questions for you as we go along. How many of you somewhere in what you do have contact with any kind of census data? Okay, about a third to a half of you. And some of you may discover that there's stuff in here that you might be using without realizing that's where it comes from. So that's the plan. I want to explain in general sense how census is changing. It's quite a lot of international context for this and I'm going to bring it down to what's currently going on in England and Wales for the Office for National Statistics. And you'll see in the middle there the administrative data is particularly key to this. And so the way in which England and Wales census is changing is an important part of how the landscape around the linkage of a lot of other data sets relevant to what Laura and James have already talked about might be changing as we go. And I've put discussion in brackets depending on whether you're very responsive when I ask you questions. I might either ask you to do a little bit of conversation as we go and get some questions out or we might save that for the panel at the end. So if you haven't been and can understand and not everybody gets up every morning and turns immediately to the census news page in their paper they're not a census junkie like me. If you just look at what's globally going on with censuses we are seeing several clear trends very similar in different countries all pushing statistical agencies conducting censuses into some common problems, common challenges, they're not all coming up with the same solutions. And so we'll see that we've got common challenges and some rather diverse responses. So one obvious thing in creating demand for really timely data. Challenge with censuses in England and Wales we only do them every 10 years. Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand doing them every five years. Even a five-year gap is quite a long time between censuses. And really if you're wanting to maybe think about moving into linked administrative data you want to have really good population denominators or denominators for particular groups. You're interested in why is life expectancy stalling, what's happening to the very elderly, waiting and using 10-year data and trying to project it forward which is kind of how our systems broadly work now not the smartest move. So lots of people say actually we need baseline demographic data much more frequently and much more up-to-date. So there's a big pressure. And actually doing the census is getting harder. So actually going and getting census forms through people's letterboxes and getting them to respond again by any means is increasingly difficult particularly in developed societies we're seeing that not only because people are just less willing to respond but actually they leave very busy lives. Lots of households are unoccupied right through the working day. Lots of people spend some of the week in one place and some in another. There's just lots of practical circumstances of our lives that are making it difficult to do a traditional census enumeration. And the result of that is if you left everything the same the response rate falls. If you want to keep the response rate up you've got to spend more and more money and go to more and more effort and have more and more complex designs. That drives cost it's very unpopular with government understandably. And there's a second sort of block down the bottom there which I call dissolving definitions which is even more of a challenge but does touch on some of the things that we were talking about in the first session. And that is that the traditional way of collecting census data assumes stability of a set of core concepts. And actually for lots of people the idea of usual residents, if you've got kids that split between two parents and spend their time on some kind of complex rotor sometimes at one house and sometimes at another, the interpretation of their usual residence is far from straightforward. We see a growth in those kinds of dilemma. Definition of a household, who are household members. Lots of people, young adults buying or renting a house together. Kind of shared arrangements for some stuff, individual arrangements for others. Conventional definition of a household doesn't look particularly resilient either. What do people do for their main employment? Working in the gig economy, working on several different jobs, changes rapidly. Lots of the things that if you like a census which was developed to give you a pay perform and capture a reality with a notion that that was a sort of thing that was stable over a long period of time is almost all dissolving as we watch. And also we've got, as per this workshop, lots of interesting and exciting methods about linking data that are tantalisingly hanging there in front of census agencies around the world thinking could we do it differently? So we've got lots of drivers for change. But we're still at the end of the day and I want to go to all these tricky places and work out who is there, what are their personal and household, their living arrangement characteristics, some stuff about their housing, the places they travel to work, because we use that information in so many ways, deeply embedded in planning, education, health care, public services, business decisions. So our basic challenge hasn't changed, but it's getting harder to do and the ways we want to consume the data are different. And there you go, two original photos from the 2011 census campaign. The one of ONS is two purple buses that drove around the country with a kind of a campaign trying to get people to fill in their census forms and big publicity campaign. It's time to fill it in, it says on the bus stop. Interestingly, outside ESRC's headquarters in Swindon, I couldn't resist that particular photograph when I went there just at the time of the census and there's the census campaign. So all of this speaks to what feels quite an old fashioned way of getting a lot of data. But it's very precious data and we don't want to let it go unless we've got a good alternative plan. So let's have a little look at how we might think about a typology of getting census type data. My traditional census is down in the bottom left corner. You'll see this diagram a few times, I'm going to plot some dots on it and drag them around and do stuff. And if you think about what happens in a really traditional census, the one that we've filled in all these times before, you could be really trendy and up to date and put the form on the internet. And that would take you in the direction of my top left box, basically the form that you know and love, the questions that you know and love, dressed up in an online kind of way and maybe with some drop down boxes for answers that people find tricky and then we'd get good data quality because they wouldn't type in that their three year old daughter was a mechanical engineer or that many other implausible circumstances which we see on actual census forms. However, if we went down the route that we started off for the last couple of hours and we thought actually how this admin data, if you could link it together in a sensible way, we could probably reconstruct most of the stuff that's on the census form. We'd be heading over in my right hand side over here. Traditional census, maybe use a bit of internet as well, but let's think about what we can link on the admin side and we get lots of advantages that way. We'll have a look at those. Or we could do the all seeing, all dancing, why not keep a list of people, get some online survey to fill in tricky characteristics and do the rest of it with admin data. Have this beautiful linked system. We would be up here in the top right hand corner. And obviously this is a kind of play version. In my mind, each of these dots does represent a place, but I haven't labelled them individually because otherwise we could argue for the rest of the day. But in 2011, we see a whole host of censuses that are down here and they're effectively doing something really traditional, but edging up into putting their census forms online and thinking that would be a good way of collecting some data, playing a little bit with maybe checking against administrative records. So that dot there, I'll let you into a secret, was Northern Ireland. This is just a few I knew about. I dropped on there. Northern Ireland was the only bit of the three UK censuses where looking at linked administrative data actually changed directly in a processing way some of the counts that were published. Whereas in England and Wales, we did a traditional census, we did a coverage survey, then we had a look at some administrative data as a quality check, but the numbers from the administrative data in 2011 didn't change directly in a straight transfer of values any of the published census data. So lots of people move into the top left in that box. And what we've also got up here, because everybody always says this and it's true, is some broadly Scandinavian countries working with a population register who've long since parted from asking those traditional questions at all and they're effectively building the whole thing from an integrated system of linked data. But the key is, right back to what James was talking about, it's based on a population register with a single person identifier that the society is happy with government agencies holding and using, which means effectively, and it won't be perfect, you've got a single citizen number allowing you to connect health, education, housing, employment, taxation, benefits, the whole lot, and therefore we're looking at a really high quality but not perfect linkage in a system which is mature. And a few countries, Netherlands, Belgium, have got there in later decades, not as long as the Scandinavians, but are building things effectively from linked administrative records, not all of whom started in quite the same space as us, but generally they have some acceptance of a kind of single citizen identifier, which makes it possible to do the linkages. And just to be different, a couple of nations in my frame here who have leapt off the page and done something really quirky and different, and I put the USA and France in that box, who've come up with unconventional designs which are not quite on that page, both effectively involving a very extensive rolling survey program, where you're not doing a full enumeration at any time, but you're doing a large program of stratified surveys year on year, building up a population picture, but it's really hard for researchers to use, because when you want some data for say a reasonably small area, you may find that you've got to pool the results over three years or five years, and the dataset you're looking at is actually based on some records that are year old and some records that are three years old and some records that are five years old and you have to have a completely different design head on thinking about how you analyze the data. But if there's a general trend, it's kind of shifting bottom left up to top right. So why does it matter? And this is a sort of England and Wales perspective, because I'm addressing an audience where mostly it's likely that you will encounter this in the context of England and Wales data. I should say that Scotland and Northern Ireland, who do their different censuses, are heading in the same broad direction, but are not always doing the same things as the office financial statistics. So they are independent censuses taking independent decisions about quite a few important methodological things, which is why they're certainly not the same dot in that diagram. If you stand where we are now, the stuff that really originates from 2011 census is our single best and only source of really high quality small area population distributions with any covariates. So effectively, if you want to understand ethnicity by age for small areas, census is the only reliable source you've got. And if you want to understand anything more complex, like housing type, ethnicity, economic activity, there is no source that will take it down to small area data, the kind of thing that's going to demarcate neighbourhoods and be useful to local plans and policy makers. Something that's going to feed into deprivation indicators at real high spatial resolution. We've got surveys that might give you the big trend for the country, but none of them have anywhere near a sample size that's going to tell us about small areas. And that's because we get very high coverage from the census. If you've got very high coverage, you can make detailed local data without being disclosive. And this issue about having full coverage, high geo-referencing just gives you this enormously rich data environment, which exists at the moment uniquely in the census frame. So we've got unique combination of attribute, detail, spatial resolution. And we need those data because that drives most of our national systems which need small area denominators. So I was meeting yesterday, ONS population theme advisory board, a whole array of fascinating stuff that they were reporting back on. And in every system, whether it is to do with a bit of the jigsaw for estimating migration, a bit of the jigsaw that's looking at life expectancy, the stuff that's to do with population projections, things that are to do with migration projections even, somewhere in that jigsaw, one of the core pieces of gold is the fact you've got those reliable census estimates to start from and therefore you're building them into systems which are actually allowing you to have some certainty at least about the denominator part. It's also, this is my one geography bullet point I think, at the moment that census data sets also the driver of the basic statistical geography. So if you've done anything, anybody ever used index and multiple deprivation in something that they do, controlling for deprivation? Remarkable, not many. Normally more people reckon they use deprivation than census. Super output areas, indices of deprivation, middle layer, lower layer, the output areas themselves, they're all produced as an artifact of the census processing, they were not independently created. So we get all of those things being done from our census machinery. It gives us a range of integrated data products. So if you are interested in accessing microdata samples, various versions, controlled access census microdata, records anonymized about actual individuals and households who filled in 2011 census forms, you can go into the ONS virtual microdata laboratory and access those samples. If you want to understand change over time, we've got the ONS longitudinal study which is the longitudinal link between a small sample of individuals from censuses from 1971 through to 2011 linked to birth and death registration and cancer registry and much more powerful longitudinal studies actually linked to census in Northern Ireland and in Scotland. If you want the small area data, this is where it comes from, you want boundaries, this is where it comes from, you want travel work matrix, this is where it comes from. We don't at the moment have really resilient comprehensive alternatives to those things and so the why does it matter part of the question is that if we are to move on to doing something slightly more adventurous with our census type data, we're going to have to be pretty certain that we're replacing the really important pieces with something equally resilient and sustainable and not burn our bridges and discover we have no root forward for lots of these processes. Also worth saying of course the beauty of census is it is a giant linked dataset, so the individuals linked to addresses, linked to households are there in a database which we can't access but which underlie all the census output products and you can request bespoke tabulations and other bespoke products which are based on that. So we've got big picture, small area aggregate data, boundaries, interactions, micro data, longitudinal studies all in the one package and my one UK data service slide justifies my UK data service part is if you want to find any of that stuff working from the academic community and you think well I might need to know about one of those go to UK data service there is a link on the front page to census outputs which links through to all of those bits and pieces on the previous slide and there's explanations and links to how to get them. So back to the general census story what we've got is both of these big shifts going on at the same time and we see them in different mixtures in different countries taking the traditional census and putting it online that is clearly part of the 2021 plan for England and Wales but at the same time taking the traditional census and spinning up an alternative system based on the admin data linkage with the possible objective if you like the current expectation that by 2021 ONS have got to a point with the admin data linkage that there is no further complete enumeration and that the system which rolls forward is one based on admin data linkage and that brings with it everything every caveat that James introduced you to at the very beginning but also a whole host of opportunities about frequent data and ability to answer new questions. So there's two points in here this is from the National Statisticians recommendations on 2021 increased use of administrative data and surveys in order to enhance the statistics from 2021 and improve what happens thereafter and an online census so the goal here is that this is a successor to the traditional paper based decennial census with some caveats which I'll say something about so we're going in both directions we are effectively moving ourselves to the middle of the diagram going up to the point where we're sitting there certainly not in that top right corner because there is no sit as an identifier there's no permanent linkage at the moment between any of those things but what we're doing is moving up if you like into a position which has got a if it's if the census is a four-legged thing it's got a foot in each of the if the courts and that is something which we see going on pretty generally so New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Northern Ireland, England, Wales censuses that tend to cross reference one another quite a lot all going to about that same position and also a few countries that are not pushing into the admin data are still nevertheless shifting out of here and putting their traditional census online and they're all cross referencing one another because they're all very anxious about one of the obvious things what would be one of your most obvious concerns if I said I would just do the census online next year what would possibly as a researcher concern you about that digitally excluded people certainly that would be one of my key ones whatever anything else that might concern you if we said I was going to do it online security fraud public acceptability I mean public acceptability basically underpins all of those things so if it if it's not trusted if people are bought into the thing it's not going to work so let's do the administrative bit first and visit that and then we'll briefly touch on how it interacts with the online and we'll come back to them put them together the the the commentary around this and it was there in 2011 as well I think a lot of people don't realize how close we came to not having a 2011 census so financial crash change of government two years before the census um Francis Mould who was minister of the cabinet office new government coming in and saying we need to cut all sorts of superfluous things why we spend in all this money on this census thing and the answer which meant it carried on was not anything to do with really the value of it but the fact that we spent most of the money already and it would look silly not to and that is that was my analysis at the time and it is still my analysis of how close it was for 2011 we could have been looking at some kind of big survey or something that was much much more scaled down and all the data that the stuff that we've been talking about we rely on we would have been re-engineering fragments of that for the last eight years but the narrative goes we're collecting loads of administrative data so we've already talked about lots of it this morning DWP HMRC Student Loans Company TV Licensing Authority Driver and Vehicle Licensing Authority NHS Department for Education Higher Education Statistics Agent they've all got these data sets surely surely surely if the public purse is paying for them all you could put them together and say you've you know three quarters of a billion you're going to spend on a census and you'd still have the same data that is a very attractive high level narrative other countries do it although let's face it the ones that are doing it successfully are doing it based on a citizen number a common population register and there was quite a strong sense at the beginning of the decade that says well yeah that's the way to go how fast can we get there can we do it let's let's let's let's make the thing happen but of course there are a lot of obstacles and you spotted some public public acceptability obviously but actually the technical and legal and practical issues are very substantial what it would look like if you like current model of an administrative data census interpreted in a UK setting is select some of the key public data sources that already exist and then do the personal level linkages so develop of a kind of a standard routinized way of taking maybe what Netherlands do an annual cut of those administrative data putting them together and building if you like a statistical model of that population which is done with the linkages at the person level you then have to deal with all kinds of imputations and corrections for the things that are over and under counted in the different data sets and you would produce from it something that looked like a census result and a set of census data products each of the sources that you bring in bring some extra variables so you want to know about housing well we could get housing data from evaluation office agency we don't need to ask people to estimate how many rooms are in their house and we want to ask people about vehicles available to a household and there's a different kind of question but we know about vehicle registrations we get the demographics that's seen quite a lot of them you want to get education seen quite a few to a certain degree so the idea is that each of these things replace or enhance components of the existing system with the potential of course that you could then rematch re-update and that you do the thing you'd be able to have potentially annual data sets for some of those so here's a little insight into 2011 where the thinking got to that's I know you can't see the numbers it doesn't matter in the quality assurance work from 2011 census as I said in England and Wales the other data sources that were available were not used in a computation to adjust the census counts but several alternative data sets and although you won't be able to see them because this screen is not especially high resolution we've got here age groups what the census counted some estimation bands around that and some estimates data we got from census coverage survey and then we've got some other lines which is from the NHS patient register data for certain ages we know from who's on the school system we've got some electoral register data we've got some benefits data for the young and the elderly which effectively are all giving you at the really simple level estimates of how many people you thought there ought to be an age band in each small area and ONS used that data in the quality assurance publishing a lot of local authority profiles a bit like this one what's going on here this is City of Bristol we have the line in the center of the purple band which was what was finally published as the census estimate but then the other lines are all the other sources and how they stack up over age so the blue line at the bottom is the people the census actually count it census doesn't count everyone that's why we do a big coverage survey and we do a lot of quite complex imputation for missing people and missing households until we get back to what we feel should be the correct estimate but also in there we've got the NHS register which is the patient register is the green line tracking well above census from around about age 20 through to late 50s but actually pretty close with census at the very young and the very old and we've got some of those other sources in there and so looking at this the question which is being asked is effectively if you can model the relationship between the lines and you've got the other sources anyway why spend all that money getting the middle line and that effectively is what's underlying this but that is a very univariate kind of view because it's assuming that what you're after is some small area demographic estimates for age groups and it gets very very complex very rapidly once you start wanting to add all those other attributes which are important for specific studies so ONS had a look and that ran a project for two or three years called Beyond 2011 I'm going to make a prediction there'll be a project in 2022 called Beyond 2021 and the title of the projects has changed a bit but they said well look here's a lot of census options there's traditional census up the top we could do a rolling census that would be something a bit like the US been doing or the French we could do a short form where we send a short questionnaire to everyone and then detail to the others that's what the US used to do we could just do a head count and send out some big annual survey and ramp up some of our current surveys or here's some admin data options basically what I just showed you for Bristol is the aggregate analysis that doesn't involve the linkage it's just producing estimates of things from individual admin records or we could do a bit of sample linkage or we could create 100% linkage of everybody or we could just do a big survey and all of those options if you like started on the table and here's from that that we have got to the current position which I stated so in order to get there it's not that these other things have not been considered but they've been considered and crossed off along the way as not being workable ways of producing the data that we need and one of the particular challenges is that a lot of those methods especially anything survey based doesn't produce the small area data and it's evolved quite a lot in the kind of the debate around why the small area data really matters you can use the national survey data to get good estimates for sorts of things but you can't bring it down to the local level so if you go now to the ONS website and you search on admin data census research you will see the beginnings of some outputs they're all experimental statistics which are the results of making estimates of various things from admin sources and you also see a lot of very interesting research reports which are the first attempts at linking one or other of those data sets and understanding the admin data quality but this is not at the moment a fully integrated linked system one of the things that ONS has invested a lot of effort into is experimenting with quite a wide variety of matching methodologies because of course we haven't got a direct citizen number even what Laura told us where they happily discovered that national insurance number was both on the student loans data and the RC data doesn't exist in most of these cases so we are back at the level of taking in some kind of hashed and anonymized age birth versions of name address data and then using if you like automated matching tools that rank the weights and probabilities that we've got the same person and building if you like a lot of different tools and models for that trying to refine towards one which would be able to routinely support the kind of thing that would be needed in this 2021 world I throw a couple of these slides in because it's easy to think that it doesn't fundamentally change anything and actually this way of thinking fundamentally changes loads of stuff that we take for granted if you look for example at what census currently tells us about people in families grouped together in things we call households and households occupy household spaces within dwellings and those things usually have addresses that is a hierarchy which people contest a bit because local government doesn't have exactly the same definitions as individual departments but you can get all of those things from the census data infrastructure because we have a kind of model forgetting them anybody here interested in households yeah few flickers of maybe households very interesting because of course households are almost completely invisible in most of those administrative sources in fact I probably go as far as to say that there isn't any real way of completely linking the household in the sense that we understand it from census by putting the admin data together nearly all of the admin records are based on either the person because we're matching the person or one of the tiers of the address that says here's a group of people associated with this address but that doesn't necessarily mean we've matched it all right we may have one of the previous residents and three of the current residents and go and think that they're a household and we would get a very very different answer to what we get from the census question actually the only way we currently really understand who's in a household is by asking them and for the last five decades all the census questions have asked something about people you live with and have some kind of common housekeeping so you share a microwave or in fact they used to use the phrase common housekeeping which for me feels like that there's a glass jar standing on the top of the fridge with the with the 50Ps in and somebody probably mum went out and did the shopping down at the co-op our world is not like that anymore but actually who people think they're living with and what those living arrangements are we only really know by asking you cannot derive sophisticated understandings of something like that by linking the admin records you'll end up with something but it will be something different and this is back again to what James and Laura were saying about the fact that understanding the purpose for which the thing was collected versus the purpose for which you want it for our whole world kind of unravels in several directions and we have to start thinking about stuff very differently we may actually end up if you did an administrative census having this whole stack of constructs for ways that people live together where you may have often connections between usually a mother and children which you can trace from some of the administrative data you have a fairly strong connection through some of the DWP benefits data but it's not going to get every household it's not going to get absent parents and indeed as households and family relationships change we may well not have a very good track of that at all so lots of the things that were challenging for census are even more challenging in this particular world let's just turn to the internet for a minute because that was part of this jigsaw it's not even as simple as solving the data linkage problem across a load and load of different government records it's much worse than that because we're going to try and do an internet enumeration 2010 11 censuses as I said most of the ones in the bottom left of that diagram internet was an option so you could complete your 2011 England Wales census form online oh yeah there it is I took a screenshot of it knowing that one day it would be useful so on the left is the form actually that's a specimen one but it's what the paper form looked like and on the right was the internet version and 16 percent of the forms were returned online so effectively on the census form there was a url and a code and you could go to the url and put in the code that was on your form and complete it online what we get is really good data quality because of being able to control the structure there may be some response by us in there as well maybe people who would have filled the form in better anyway tended to do it online so obviously as you've pointed out there's there's a big age bias in there and in the latest tests for 2017 trialing bits of census the 20 year olds 90 something percent of them responded online in a small scale trial in 2017 50 percent of the over 85s and we're pretty certain of most of the 50 that seem to be online it was somebody else doing the form for them so we're changing the thing we're measuring quite a lot have a look at what happens then post 2011 though so we know the forms of high quality so all the census agencies around the world say way to go let's do this New Zealand 2011 census disrupted by the Christchurch earthquake so they put it back two years pushed online heavily got up to 34 percent looked pretty good Australia 2016 Canada everybody who's doing a mid decade census think yeah we're going to go for online first Australia disaster census night big campaign against distributed denial of service attack on the census site bit poor PR 10 percent response when they've been aiming for 65 percent this is a really risky strategy if it all goes wrong this is worse than paper forms and a mail strike because of course at least when the mail strike is over your paper forms might get there you do it all online and everybody loses faith in the exercise or somebody just puts the wrong message out or maybe there's a data breach or something else happens completely outside the control of the census agency the week beforehand it's a very risky strategy so actually despite the fact that it looks good and that's the campaign is targeting 75 percent online response online first you need still a colossal infrastructure for trying to prop it up and be able to do it with a lot of paper forms and people whizzing around and a complete communications architecture for dealing with things that might go wrong Canada does look like they've got it right 68 percent so it can be done can actually get high coverage and of course those internet responses are quite cheap so once you put the investment in you've got the date it's basically ready in the database do a bit of cleaning and checking but fundamentally you are creating at source the census database from which everything else can be constructed what's difficult is the business of how we then get to all the people that will not respond online and so that's what the 2017 test was experimenting with do you send an enumerator just straight in advance and say these areas are going to be really hard they've got poor internet connectivity or they've got populations that we know aren't going to respond online very much and you plan to go with a paper form or even digitally assisted somebody coming around with a tablet but if you do that we're going to introduce all kinds of response by us that we haven't previously had in our census data set so none of these routes is plain sailing and what we get in 2021 is intended to be online first assisted for those that can't and then lots of admin data integration being spun up if you like to the point where it's getting to the same speed as the census outputs and we can say oh we got this data about size of households numbers of rooms car ownership and we've got these other things are they telling us the same answer because if we've got to about the right place we don't do this again we just carry on with the admin source I threw this one in although it's just a couple of slides because somebody will otherwise ask and it's been in the news lately although it is not a part in any integral way of the 2021 plan which is what about big data and I make an explicit distinction between admin data and big data DWP's admin systems are pretty big but they're not big like Google's or Vodafone's big data systems I was about to pick up my device this thing sitting here connected to Vodafone and we'll have told them a couple of hundred times since we started that Dave's device is sitting here in this room that's really big data but it doesn't actually answer many of the census type questions it could be really important part of the jigsaw for some so data about things and events that that device started at my home and came here but it usually goes to the University of Southampton occasionally it goes to the University of Southampton might be quite a useful way of extracting some travel to work information if you didn't have a census form that asked it and you're not going to get that directly from the linked admin data set you might make an association between me and the university but that's not really going to tell you about local travel to work that might so locational stuff certain types of activity expenditure household energy some really tantalising potentially very powerful sources for using the big data if you saw it's stuff that is sensed rather than part of an administrative system or something that is volunteered but we don't really have the means of doing a lot of linkage between them they tend to give us a fascinating noisy picture of a particular system but the integration of that with the other data sets is really quite challenging just to illustrate that this is not going to be plain sailing this is not even the internet census this is this one is based on a little trial 7th November so only a couple of weeks ago mobile phone tracking data could replace census questions say the BBC and the little bit under the picture you might not see is thousands of people have had their movements tracked by the Office of National Statistics to see if they can find out where they live and work don't believe everything that you read ONS acquired for local authority level flows with more than 15 people in them from a secondary analysis company the work flows into three London local authorities from one phone provider for a four week period just to work out whether or not this might tell you anything that was useful so the headline is a bit of a long way from the reality but elsewhere around the world we do see people starting to get some useful mobility data in particular but it's only replacing one little silo think about everything else we were talking about earlier in the in the morning not much of that is going to get replaced directly because we don't have the attributes on most of the big data they're usually proxies for something that's quite a long way removed from the individuals fascinating futures huge ethical questions about how you use it what on earth is consented so should I perhaps start looking at which devices spend lots of time together and then I might have a new definition of practical living arrangements and households all sorts of things that in your working lives we will have to deal with we're not there in the 2021 world so 2011 looked like that in a nutshell we had traditional enumeration for 84 percent of the population on the left with 16 percent responding online those data being cleaned and put together into a census database then several big steps including the coverage survey and checking against various administrative data sources adjustment and estimation to produce if you like an outputs cleaned database from which all the outputs that we know and love are available on the right hand side there's more boxes available other boxes are available I just haven't put them on this slide but the 2021 model watch the admin checks is one that looks like this where we've got hopefully a large amount of internet collection a little bit of traditional hopefully almost swapping those two over several admin sources coming in and providing variables income quite possibly maybe replacing some of the questions like number of rooms in the household or in the dwelling space which we might get from the admin source that we could link feeding actually into the census database so that this thing then becomes the beginnings of a statistical population data set rather than what you got off your forms maybe still some admin checks from other sources but I've kind of shifted it in cartoon form down to there because that's really the 2021 thinking and the coverage survey still being needed 2011 census coverage survey you think of it as just an adjunct to the census it is still by far the largest household survey we've conducted in the decade so 300,000 or so addresses stratified all local authorities different area types visited to work out how well you've done with your census because otherwise you don't know how to do the correction we're certainly still going to need that in there and then we can still do the same set of outputs so I put this in the point where I thought I would be after about 40 minutes and it's not far off there I've got some questions for you so just to cede the conversation we have later I want you to chill out a bit and say something to somebody else on your table just pick something off there that looks vaguely interesting to you are there some census variables stuff we've talked about that's relevant to what you do maybe for some of you that's easy what might they look like if we go down the route that I'm talking about or worse if you had to do them from an admin source just have a little ponder just think yourself three years down the line and think well I know how you do it now but when we get the new data well might that be the same or not what would be the biggest challenge how would it affect what you do don't spend ages I'll give you about three minutes but what I want to do cede a few excitement about the future or possible anxieties about the future that you might come back with because then when I ask you for things in 10 minutes time we're on a panel you'll have lots of material to work from have a quick conversation there's your admin census just a kind of further update to my processing model that says now I've got no standard enumeration on the left hand side I've just got a variety of linked admin data sets we bring them all in they get linked in that statistical population database which interestingly is probabilistic so it can have half the person at their term time address and half a person at their home address for example in the way it's currently being constructed it's a floating point calculation it's not exactly here's a person and they're wholly in one place and I can foresee the big data coming in at the point where the admin data was being used for the checks possibly on its way to providing some variables over there but importantly with your point about validation I don't see any route here that doesn't involve a coverage survey at least as big as the one in the 2011 model because if you do any of this you will find exactly if you stop doing the census how do you know when you've drifted off the admin sources governments will change policies child benefit things of this kind we thought we'd got the admin data but then you haven't changed the admin data doesn't look like the admin data used to look like maybe it'll be the same with something to do with universal credit you know some future government will do it differently so we have to have the concepts firm and know how we're measuring them but it's got to be resilient against the fact that most of the data are there as a result of particular policy that way of doing stuff lasts about a decade and we do it differently so maybe we end up with this world which is mostly administrative some big data sources a large official model of the population and we do a big coverage survey every five years or 10 years or a rolling one that helps us to fill in where do we think the reality lies and that's possibly the answer to the validation question that didn't address your ethics question and the legal is a bit separate from the ethics the ethics debate I think is it's still needing to be had and the security concerns about the online census we've got lots of things still needing to be had but there are in a sense then legal terms quite a lot of exemptions for putting the data together for the purposes of creating the official statistics for the country but I would really separate them out from if you like the broader ethical discussion just because it's legal is it ethical discuss might want to come back to that one there we go what future so 2021 we're going to get a vaguely conventional census question but mainly enumerated online admin data integrated some big risks which ONS are working on in fairness a lot of thought but we see that really bringing a routinization of the admin data integration and I would say that where where the government departments and ONS get to if you like their comfort zone and success levels for 2021 that's the single biggest driver so where 2021 census gets to is likely to set some standards and norms which will then affect what happens when any of us are talking to them talking to departments who hold those data future linkages certainly in the early part of the next decade because it's all going to be based on this worked within the census frame these are the matching methodologies these are the things that we understood and how it worked we've got the validation and it's going to be an enormously important marker that affects the projects we apply for now that might be ready in six years time shall we say and beyond that something really diverse but I think needing to be calibrated with those big coverage surveys so effectively last couple of slides that's your 2021 model we shrink it down a bit we're going to wrap big data around the edge a lot of those countries are going to it's like somebody's hits the billiard ball the cue ball comes in from bottom left and they scatter they're all heading up in that direction and my final comment just for interest is that there were a few like this who I call leapfroggers and we're down there and then they've gone there because most of this is a developed world census narrative I've given you and in lots of parts of the world where there have been no formal censuses for quite a long time period the big data routes which are saying we can use satellite imagery to find the houses we've got a load of mobile phone data really high mobile phone coverage we've got mobility flows it's some really basic demographics and counts will stop even attempting to do what's bottom left and we'll jump immediately around to top right so I should stop there


Baxter made several advancements as a city during the 1990s and early 2000s while Gary Mulehausen was mayor. This week, the city of Baxter is mourning the loss of their former mayor. Mulehausen passed away peacefully in his sleep last Sunday at his home in Baxter. He served as Baxter's mayor from July 21, 1998 until the end of 2004. Baxter saw growth during Mulehausen's tenure and his impact on the city will not be forgotten. I loved his passion he had for working with individuals with disabilities. If there was a difference of opinion, he was willing to discuss it without being argumentative. He will be remembered by his family and friends and residents of Baxter as a good person. There will be a celebration of his life at Arrowhead Lodge in Baxter tomorrow from five to eight. Mulehausen was 75 years old. If you enjoyed this segment of Lakeland News, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution to Lakeland PBS.


St. Lucia recently joined the rest of the world in observing World No Tobacco Day. The event, which was organized by the World Health Organization, seeks to discourage persons from tobacco use. This year's observances are being held under the theme, Commit to Quit. In a panel discussion held to mark the occasion, Senior Medical Officer for Non-Communicable Diseases, Dr. Shana Sierra-Filbert, reminded the public of some of the dangers of tobacco use. Smoking affects every organ in the body, especially your respiratory system. So of course you're inhaling smoke, your body was not made to inhale smoke and so the whole immune system of your respiratory system is affected. So smokers tend to be more prone to getting respiratory diseases like tuberculosis, they get flu, etc., diseases like that more often than someone who does not smoke. In 2019 and 2020, St. Lucia enacted a new legislation designed to reduce the number of public locations in which people can smoke. Deputy Director of the Substance Abuse Advisory Council Secretariat, Joanna Joseph Henry, explained the intended benefits of the laws. The big concern right now is to try as much as possible to reduce the exposure, the initiation of our young persons into tobacco use. The Public Health Act was revised to allow the control of smoking in public places, in workplaces, enclosed public places as well as outdoor public places. So the purpose of all of that is to reduce the exposure of individuals to tobacco smoke. The 2021 World No Tobacco Day Observances also included the unveiling of a new mascot named Luther Lung which was designed by a student of the St. Mary's College. For the Ministry of Health and Wellness, I am Jack Hingson-Compton.


الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وصلى الله على سيدنا وحبيبنا وشفي عنفوسنا أب القاسم محمد وعلى آل بيته الطيبين الطاهرين المعصومين لاسيما بقية الله روحي وأرواح العالمين لترابي مقدمه الفداء أم أبعد رسبكت السكولرين أخواتي السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته أحب أن أرسل كل شخص في إشتراك هذا العالم من رمضان أحب أن أرسل كل شخص من رمضان مبارك إن شاء الله لنبدأ هذا العالم من this month of mercy this month of reward this month of blessings of Allah and which He has granted for us ونقول ذلك إن شاء الله سبحانه وتعالى today's speech and the upcoming speeches will be based on the preparation for this holy month of Ramadan إن شاء الله سبحانه وتعالى tonight especially I want to look at the mercy of Allah and the opportunity has given us in order to come towards the message of Ahlulbayt to come towards the message of Allah سبحانه وتعالى to go towards the door of repentance to the door of mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى إن شاء الله tonight in particular we want to focus on the idea of mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى and three particular points or faculties that we want to look at the first and foremost we want to look at Allah's mercy in an aspect where we can give examples because we cannot comprehend Allah's mercy nor can we comprehend His Adalah but we can look into it from our particular perspective so we'd like to look at Allah's mercy in particular analogies then we want to look at it when we look at our Imams especially the Imam that will be martyred in this holy month of Ramadan Imam Ali ابن أبي طالب and the mercy that Allah سبحانه وتعالى had in this particular Hajj on this earth and see how we can relate this to Allah سبحانه وتعالى and his mirror images on earth and then in the final occasion in شاء الله and to wrap everything together and to prepare ourselves we'd like to look at how we can take this mercy and apply it in the holy month of Ramadan so please help me in starting the topic of the mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى with one of your loudest salawat محمد وآلي محمد Allah's mercy is a very complex idea to come across because Allah سبحانه وتعالى has many levels of His mercy there's mercy in particular beings, there's mercy on particular acts there's mercy that Allah سبحانه وتعالى has given us in which we have a narration that says everything that you have now every mercy that Allah has blessed you with whether it be your eyesight whether it be your hands any senses, the gifts that Allah has given you the blessings you have around you is only 1% everything you have on earth the narration says it's 1% and he says he's left 99 for the day of judgment that there's another narration that says that even when Iblis sees how merciful Allah is on the day of judgment he begins to think to himself maybe Allah سبحانه وتعالى will forgive me that's how much mercy Allah will show on the day of judgment but let's look at Allah's mercy in particular analogies when the NBR are trying to be shown Allah's mercy there's an analogy that's given to show them in a very close perspective of how merciful Allah سبحانه وتعالى is and this is the example of the boy, his mother and an illegitimate relationship Allah tells his prophet he says to him you want to see my mercy he says yes he says go and look at what's about to happen the story goes is that a man was in blind love with a particular woman and the mother would not have them be married so he goes to the woman and he says what can I do to be with you and the woman look at what she replies and this is why lust for relationships is very devastating towards society the woman replies by saying go and kill your mother and I want your mother's beating heart brought to me only then will I be with you can you imagine the mercy of a mother when Allah سبحانه وتعالى tries to show us the mercy that he has in relation to a mother why because it's unconditional love when we look at the mother the mother is the embodiment of love the embodiment of mercy because the mother and we stated this when we looked at the right of the mother the mother has unconditional love in which she is prepared to be thirsty as long as you drink as long as you are quenched the mother is happy and sufficed to be hungry as long as you eat as long as the night as long as she sees you sleep she will remain bare as long as you are clothed and this is all from the right of Imam Zayn al-Abdina in which he says to the words the right of the mother trying to give you a closer analogy then we look that boy goes towards his mother he's in blind love he goes towards his mother he kills his mother he takes her heart and he goes towards on the way look at Allah سبحانه وتعالى on the way he trips he falls the heart falls out of his hand Allah gives the ability to the heart to speak what does the heart of the mother say he says my beloved oh my deez son are you okay the boys just killed his mother Allah has given the ability for the heart to speak and the heart what does it say are you hurt my son what to his prophet he says bear witness that's my mercy and my love towards my creation is greater than this love and mercy for this mother for her son how many folds there's a notion that says 70 times more there's a notion that says 100 times more but imagine the mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى in reference to his abad to me and you that's the mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى when the prophet when the prophet he says when can I return back to Allah سبحانه وتعالى and we can remember this because this is the month of mercy this is the month that Allah has given us the opportunity to return back to him he says when is it that we can repent and go towards you oh Allah and the prophet asked this the prophet was in his state he says you can return back to Allah he says one year before you die one year before you die if you repent Allah will accept your repentance and then he pauses because he knows the mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى he pauses and he says no it's not one year he says it's one month he pauses again he says no not one month he says one week then he goes on to say one day he pauses for the last ones as it gets closer and closer to the idea of mercy of Allah he pauses and he says if it's one hour then he says if it's one minute then he goes on to say what he says if the angel of death is standing at your footsteps and you begin to see the gardens of heaven and the pits of hell he says then if you go towards Allah sincerely isn't it وإذا بلغت الحلقوم وإن تمحين إذن you begin to see the gardens of heaven and the pits of hellfire the prophet says then if you repent sincerely to Allah سبحانه وتعالى Allah will forgive you and this is the mercy of Allah we see it in an everyday situation but we do not pay attention to it what's the greatest example of Allah's mercy is the faculty that is given us between sin and reward if we look at it in depth if we look at a sin how many does Allah right for us as a sin when we sin one sin isn't it when we sin it's one when we do an act of worship how many does Allah سبحانه وتعالى give us 10 rewards that in itself is Allah's mercy but we don't look at it it goes further than this Allah سبحانه وتعالى has told if you think about sinning if you think your intention is there to sin however or whether it be intentionally or unintentionally that you do not commit that sin remember you thought about it you didn't commit that sin what does Allah right that's the mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى and he goes further he goes even when you do betray me even when you do commit the sin look at the mercy of Allah he says I have given authority on the right angel over the left angel what's the authority he says when you commit a sin he says I have given authority to the right angel to stop the left angel to write it straight away because when you do a reward when you do a good deed however when you sin the right angel tells the left angel he says wait one hour goes by he says wait another hour until seven hours go past he says if you repent within that seven hours he won't write it however after the seven hours the left angel will look at the right he says can I write it he says now you may write it so he gives us an opportunity to repent towards Allah سبحانه وتعالى this is all in a level that we know but we didn't look at in depth that Allah is mercy but it's something to look at it's something to analyze especially in the month of mercy in which Allah سبحانه وتعالى has multiplied the rewards has multiplied the recitation of the Quran has multiplied even your breathing even your sleeping in the month of Ramadan is عبادة imagine if you actually do عبادة imagine if you stay at the night imagine what reward you get on the day of القدر imagine what Allah has ready for you in this holy month only if you go out and take it because you are given the opportunity it's like this person that said he fell off a boat it's quite a funny analogy actually he falls off a boat and he says Allah سبحانه وتعالى will save me he's fall off the boat and he's waiting for Allah سبحانه وتعالى because he believed that he has faith in Allah سبحانه وتعالى so he falls off and he waits he says Allah سبحانه وتعالى will rescue me so the first boat comes by and he stops he says hop on you look like you're struggling he says no no no Allah سبحانه وتعالى will save me so that boat goes by the second boat comes he says hop on you're struggling he says no no no I don't need your boat Allah سبحانه وتعالى will save me he comes on the day of judgment and he says Allah سبحانه وتعالى he tells him well what happened I wanted you to save me and Allah says didn't I send three ships towards you in which you can hop on board now the idea is not that the person didn't believe in Allah but he did not read the signs of Allah when Allah gives us an opportunity you come one step towards him Allah will come ten steps you go one step away what do you think will happen if you forget from Allah سبحانه وتعالى if you forget Allah سبحانه وتعالى but if you remember him he will come towards you and the blessings will not even see as a revert one of the reverts that I've heard comes from a different religion we have Islam we're born into Islam we're given this beautiful beautiful message spoon fit to us imagine a revert that had to struggle to come towards this message this revert look at the way he came towards Islam look at the way he came towards Islam he says I believed in Islam completely he says I understood Islam I went and I read and I researched and I came to a complete state of salvation that yes this is the right path Islam is the right religion he says but I was looking for a sign I wanted something from Allah سبحانه وتعالى from his merciful grace to show me to lead me you know when sometimes we're down and we just want something to pick us up again something some kind of sign something from Allah سبحانه وتعالى this revert had the same idea as you and I he says for three nights in Ramadan he says in three nights in Ramadan he says I opened the Quran obviously he couldn't read Arabic at the time so he had the transliteration he says I wanted to read something I wanted something to start to come and submit towards Allah سبحانه وتعالى he says I created an atmosphere he says I let the lights off I opened the candles I opened the windows I was waiting for it he says the first night I was waiting for a sign from Allah he says nothing happened he says the second night I was waiting for a sign from Allah he says nothing happened he said the third night, I was waiting I was ready. he says everything was ready he said I was looking for the smallest of signs. he says a small sound the wind gushing و 많이 تجح these blinds moving He says nothing, nothing moved No sound was there It was completely silent I'm already submitted Let me start reading the Quran I believe it or not The verse, the verse he reads from the Holy Quran Is the repetitive verse In The Sura Kenyaa In in which he reads فبأي أهلاء ربكما، تكذباني، which of the signs of your Lord do you deny? He says which of the signs of your Lord do you deny? Now this person straight away he said I got the goosebumps I went straight towards the mosque He says I want to come towards a religion right now And in which he begins to recite the shahada and everyone comes around to him And imagine he says to himself I was so taken back from the amount of people that came towards me Little did he know that it was actually iftar at the mosque at that time But that's for another particular story Now in essence let's look at the mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى We've understood that Allah is the most merciful That we cannot grasp the mercy of Allah سبحانه وتعالى But in instance let's look at how Allah سبحانه وتعالى has manifested his mercy In which are the Ahlul Bayt Let's look at the person that will be martyred in the month of Ramadan The person that brought this religion and held this religion If it was not for his sword, if it not for his knowledge If it was not for his dances Whether it be in the battle field or in the court of law Or his silence for the خلافة This person is the manifestation of mercy And I say this was examples brothers and sisters When Ali ibn Abi Talib was struck in his sujood When Ali ibn Abi Talib was struck in his sujood We find that the person that struck Ali ibn Abi Talib What did Ali ibn Abi Talib do towards him For us if someone hurt us by a word Or looked at us in a wrong way It's the end of the world Ali ibn Abi Talib this person struck him with a poisonous sword He says bring him, do not hurt him Feed him, clothe him Tell me what kind of mercy did he show Ali ibn Abi Talib And look at what Ali ibn Abi Talib showed him in return We really need to have to think about this particular analogy We have to think about the stories that we hear from the Ahl al-Bait This is the manifestation of mercy This is the manifestation of Allah's mercy on earth When we find that a person by the name of Sauda Which used to write poems for the people To fight for Ali ibn Abi Talib and Safin When she goes towards Muawiyah She says such and such governor of yours Is not doing his job Is doing ABCD against religion Muawiyah just dismisses her He says why should I even listen to you You wrote the poems for Ali ibn Abi Talib So she begins to cry And she says where is Ali ibn Abi Talib Muawiyah straight away he looks at her He says why do you remember Ali He says I remember when I went to tell Ali ibn Abi Talib About a governor that used to just eat With the wealthy people In which Ali ibn Abi Talib straight away And he began to weep And asked for forgiveness from Allah And he says look at the difference between Ali and yourself He says look at this instance brothers and sisters And the companions at the time knew this When we had a young 5 year old Like the beautiful people we see nowadays 5 year old And the brothers I see in front of me A girl 5 years of age The daughter of Abu Aswad al-Du'ali One of the companions of Ali ibn Abi Talib After Ali ibn Abi Talib When Muawiyah's time When he used to try to get Ali ibn Abi Talib's people towards him He gave this household A bit of honey with saffron inside You can imagine the companions of Ali ibn Abi Talib They didn't have honey Because they were a state of famine at the time And they were following the honey that had the saffron inside So she did not know who it's from 5 years of age as the narration 5 or 6 years of age as the narration goes She picks it up She sees it at the door She opens it She begins to eat it Her father Abu Aswad al-Du'ali comes in And he asks her He says do you not know who that honey is for So she looks at her father And she says who's this honey for her father He says this honey is from Muawiyah's camp This is from Muawiyah And look at how this 5 year old acts I want the brothers especially to look at this 5 year old And how she acted In light of Ali ibn Abi Talib She goes The narration says She puts her hand in the back of her throat Until she regurgitates She vomits all that Which she just ate So all the honey and saffron Just comes out And she goes and points towards Syria at the time Or Damascus And she says Particular lines of poetry In which she begins to talk with Muawiyah And she says Do you try to take us away With some saffron flavored honey Take us away from Ali ibn Abi Talib He says no way will you be able to Get the closest companions away from such An amazing leader And she says this in lines of poetry Brothers and sisters At 5 years of age She begins to talk with Muawiyah In which she says What Join back to the idea of mercy Of Allah سبحانه وتعالى How does it apply nowadays How does it apply nowadays Because we have to grasp it And I made sure to talk about the aspect of mercy Before I begin to talk about Ramadhan In the upcoming nights Because first we have to prepare ourselves Physically, mentally, spiritually For the month that comes ahead of us We have to prepare ourselves In which Allah سبحانه وتعالى Has given us the opportunity To stay away from number one The food and the drink That may affect our thinking That may affect our way of life That may affect us in any particular way And give us a clear idea of thought He takes us away from that which is Halal And we have to stay from that which is Haram Whether it be backbiting Whether it be harming oneself Whether it be drinking or eating That which is Haram We are away from all of that And we have to behave ourselves As certain guidelines we have to abide by Allah is trying to teach us Allah is trying to put us onto this particular path Let's use this time But first we have to put ourselves Into the mindset of Islam We have to put ourselves in the mindset That is Ramadhan By first and foremost Having the idea of where we want to be At the end of Ramadhan And then step by step We'll begin to achieve it Step by step We'll say to ourselves That this is what we're going to achieve this day This is what we'll be achieved By half of Ramadhan This is what I will be Before it hits us And in which At the end of Ramadhan You will begin to say to yourself That yes I have done That which I wanted And insha'Allah Next Ramadhan I will be tenfold the person I am today I will learn tenfold Of what I know nowadays I'll be a better person In the eyes of Allah And we pray to Allah On this Closing line insha'Allah And insha'Allah In the upcoming nights We'd like to decipher And go into detail About The month of Ramadhan How did fasting come about What is the benefits of fasting From the imams From the scientific perspectives From طب الأئمة We'd like to look at it In a more detailed manner Not just in a stereotypical Very Kind of Surface level In which we usually look at it And go in depth And look at Ramadhan in its essence Ramadhan The month of mercy Ramadhan The opportunity That Allah has given us And how we can grasp That opportunity The best we can And insha'Allah We pray to Allah On this note That it gives us the opportunity To better ourselves During this month of Ramadhan To elevate Us In both knowledge Spirituality And closeness towards Allah Subhanahu Wa Ta'ala We pray to Allah With the Surah المباركة الفاتح But before it Three of your loudest Salawat على محمد وقال محمد


In C, you can put if statements inside of if statements, and that's called a nested if. Let's look at this program that calculates movie ticket prices. It uses a single if with a compound condition to determine whether a person is under 16 and attending on the weekend or not. If they're under 16 and it's a weekend, they get a price of 450. Otherwise, for everyone else, on every day, it's $7.95. There are, however, some sets of decisions that aren't easily addressed by a single if with a compound condition. Consider this program with a more complicated decision structure. Young people still get a discount, but the amount depends on whether they're attending on the weekend or not. Here's a flowchart of the decision process. You can see that the first decision leads to another decision. In C, that translates to a nested if statement. Let's put that into our code. The first decision asks if age is less than 16. If that's true, it leads to another question, namely, is the day equal to 6 or is the day equal to 7? If that's true, then the price is $6. Otherwise, the price is $4.50. That takes care of the case when age is less than 16. If age is not less than 16, the price is $8. No matter which day it is. And then print the result. Let's build that and let's run it. For example, a 15-year-old person who attends on Wednesday pays $4.50. If they attend on Saturday, they pay $6. And somebody who's 25 on any day of the week pays $8. When you write nested if statements, it's vital to indent properly and use braces to keep your code organized and readable. Here's the flowchart and the corresponding code for the nested if.


Hi everybody it's Sam at Mixed Up Craft thank you for watching my tutorial today. I'm going to be showing you how to make these really cute novelty handbags. So this one is the Father Christmas and this one is an elf and I really like how they come together. Some of you recognize the bag shape and all I've done is just shrunk it down so again it's a size that I haven't done before so I will put the measurements within the title and then it'd be easy for you to find this size gift bag and I will also pop it in my gift bag playlist and my I'll probably do a novelty one because last year I done the big Christmas pudding and I done another Father Christmas one but it was a circular bag and those were really popular and many of you made those so I will link that up here and you'll be able to find any other novelty style kind of bags and boxes that I'll pop in there. So this is what we're making the measurements for these ones are it is two and a half in depth and it is six and a quarter wide and then well the highest point is seven but the side there is six just under six so they're a nice size it definitely can fit you know some lovely smaller gifts in there and then I've popped a Velcro fastening so it just seals at the top like so and this one here you can see just take them apart there you've got all that room you don't have to have the sides sticking out you can pop them inside if you would rather and I'll show you what I've used for the tag and the buckle and everything I've also got some stitching detail here and just some use of your border punches and dies and things like that just to create these fun little details so this is what we're going to make. Okay so I'm using the these are some punches that I shared a while back now when I received a lovely parcel from Dress My Craft so they've sent me this border punch which is the scallop border punch and it's really good for obviously having a scallop detail on you know your cards and things like that but for creating fun elements so like the collar for example which I've done on the did I use it on that one? No it's for the the piece through the middle where like the santa's the fur would be on the coat but I think what I'm going to do today is do it around the collar and maybe make more of a mrs claws so this is this is mr claws and then we'll do a mrs claws so we will see and then this is the two and a half scallop punch which I've used for the tag then I've got my 20mm hook and loop which is the dot and dab range and then I've got all my pieces here so the buckle I've had these for a while I brought quite a few I think I had them maybe not even last year but the year before and obviously they're meant for you know making your own you know belts and using them for dress making and things like that but they're great for papercraft so you would have seen me feature these in other handbag tutorials I'll try and link something similar because on the elf one I've actually used the silver so you know any kind of buckle if you just pop in belt buckles on amazon and ebay places like that you should be able to find somebody selling them but also go into a charity shop and if there's a load of belts for like 50p or something some of them you can probably cut away I mean leather ones are a bit more difficult but fabric ones you could probably cut everything off and just be left with a nice buckle so just check those things out that's what I like to do the stamps I'm using is this one here which is the pink fresh and it's the one with that lovely big ponsettia that I used for one of my tutorials when I showed the Nova markers but it was free on a magazine I can't remember which magazine but again I'll try and link it below so I know a few of you have got that one because you've shared it before yeah and then also some circle dies if you don't have any punches so okay so you're going to need two pieces of let me get the main pieces because it's all deconstructed so you've got the the different colors on the sides there so you want two pieces that are six and a quarter by nine and a half and along the nine and a half inch side on both those pieces you want to score it two and a half okay and then just fold and burnish and again I've already done that once so just fold and burnish okay so that's those two ready so these are three and a half by eight and a quarter so it's the length of a four okay along that long side you want to score it two and a half then on the shorter side you want to score it half an inch and three inches and then also score it one and three quarters about I don't know almost down you've got about one inch from where I'm stopping there to that score line that you e-scored that two and a half score line it's just going to help you fold out these pieces here I'm not doing all the other bits because we're not folding it flat but just to help it kind of stay in that position because if you don't add that score line it's likely to just kind of want to pop open so by adding that score line it will just help it all keep its shape so do that on both pieces and again you just want to fold and burnish I'm just pinching that one just down to the top there okay so I've got those two pieces and then for your straps you want two pieces that are one inch by 11 and three quarters so it's the default A4 length 11 inches will be fine 12 inches you may even want them shorter again I have started the stitching on one of them but I'll do the other one in a minute I'll show you my pen that I use and then I've got these pieces here and these pieces here so these are to go completely optional but it was just in detail and it's to do this piece here I just quite like that I don't know just I thought it looked nice I'll show you there on the black I done the white but because we've got white on the side of this one which is why I thought it looked good as Mrs Claus I've done the red so these pieces measure two and a half by three quarters of an inch you want two pieces and along that two and a half inch I just scored at one and a quarter and again one and a quarter and then just fold and burnish and then these pieces here one is for the belt all right now you will yours may vary in the width because I've done mine so that it fits through this particular buckle so depending on what you're doing I know a lot of you will probably die cut you can just die cut a silver circle or a gold circle that will work fine and then just sit that behind the um because you imagine that piece wouldn't be seen anyway so if that was I'm going to take that piece off in a minute but if that was to just feed through it just looks like a circle so if you just die cut a silver or I like I said a silver or a gold circle then it will work fine so depending on what the width is of the inner diameter of what you punch will then depend on the width of this you just want to make sure it fits through but the length will be six and a quarter it's the full length of this piece here okay you can see there if it's across nicely and then this piece is the center part that looks like the the jacket and this is one and a half by seven now it won't be one and a half once I punch the sides so it will end up becoming more about just over one really okay but again all of that you can change and you know you might want to do yours a little bit differently to mine anyway okay so with the side pieces here we just want to do a little bit of cutting so where you've got that score line that two and a half score line on the bottom you just want to cut the side pieces off so that side that side and then remove them but also you might as well just cut on an angle like that just take a little wedge out just so you don't get any of that overhanging so I'm just going to cut straight away on an angle and just cut that away like so and then also just take a little wedge off of both sides again do that on this one here okay now if you would prefer to stick down the detail on this top piece before you put it all together you can I'm going to put mine all together just because I like to have it all in its 3d form and then start kind of adding the decoration so what you want to do first of all I'm just going to grab my my glue and you just want to add some glue along the side of the tab you can use double sided tape as well if you want just make sure it's quite strong so a red red line of tape something like that will work well and then you just want to make sure that your base score line here lines up with this base score line here you're not lining up your tops because this one comes down shorter so again just going to push all that out of the way and just lie that one down and just sit it right next to the score line and then fold it over you can also depending if you're using a liquid glue or not but you can always move it and wiggle it around just to make sure that you get it lined up sometimes when I rub like that it might slide the glue but now when I open that up and that pushes out I imagine that's going to be underneath and that pushes out the side okay then grab another one of your sides and again pop some glue on the so this will be the left hand side that you're going to do this one and you're going to pop it on the opposite side again lining up those base score lines okay and then grab your other piece pop another layer of glue on the other tab and stick this one down okay and then fold the whole thing over fold that side and then with this side here again just add some glue lie that one down flat underneath and then that one should line up perfectly and the whole thing should lie flat I'm just going to let that all dry okay so now decide which one you want to be the front and the back so I'm going to keep this as my front so you want to fold the back down first and then you want to pop some glue on this piece and fold in both of your sides pop some more glue on the top turn the whole thing upside down and then using a ruler or your hand you can just go in there and just push everything down okay so now we've got the bag next I'm going to grab my handles so I'd already done one with the other one I've used my Posca pen this one here it's the 0.7 mil you must always give it a good shake just so it mixes everything up otherwise it'll come out very diluted and weak and the although it may come out quite white it will then become quite translucent and almost disappear so you've got to give it a good shake and then you'll get that lovely crisp white this is great for adding you know any kind of highlight snow effects and this kind of faux stitching so I'm just going to go along here and literally just put little dashes all the way along the sides okay so now they're all done so I'm going to do this one first just because I know it's dry and I'm just going to stick it like that now because I'm this is the front and I'm adding the collar for these ones I'm actually going to stick them behind but you can see so there I stuck them behind and then on the elf I actually stuck them over the top they kind of look like braces so it's entirely up to you you know dependent on what look that you want to go for but I'm going to stick these ones behind so I'm going to use my hot glue just because it's a little bit quicker and I'm just going to put a thin bead covering about half an inch and it's up to you how far you're in you want to come I'll come in about one and a quarter inches I'm just going to hold that one there for a second keeping everything nice and straight okay like so and then I'm just going to bring the other one around like that again just cover small little section there and just stick it in coming in roughly about the same okay so that's now stuck inside and okay and then also what you can do is die cut some circles and put the circles covering that if you want to but I'm happy with that then with this one you want to do the same on the back all I'm going to do is use the ones that I've just stuck down on the front as a guide so if you just kind of pop it in there if you lie it on this one so lie it on top of that one and then just kind of close this one and it will like pick it up there we go at least that way you know that you've got them in line with each other like that okay then I've got my hook and loops I'm just going to pop a pair together and just stick one in there and then stick that together and I'm just going to leave that there because now it's ready for me to decorate the front so first of all I'm going to use this piece here so using that punch these work just like all other border punches so you just punch anywhere you want and then you'll see the lovely detail that you get there and then you just move it along left or right it doesn't matter until you start to it starts to sit within this silver pattern here and you line it up perfectly with that pattern keep everything straight and then punch again and you'll see it will perfectly continue so again if I come along a bit further always make sure you keep it straight you get the last ones in there and then I can go back now along this side and use this end to just finish off the rest of it see and then if you miss a piece like that it just means I've got to come down a little bit further so let's do it there we go I've got a mark on that I have to turn it over and then again I'm just going to carry up all the way up here just so I can finish off that end like so and then I've still got that little bit there so I just need to come up a tiny bit more and then you've got a really fun decorative edge so I'm going to do the same on the other side okay so that one is going to go right down through the center now I've got a little bit there but I think I've gone a little bit long so what I can do is just trim a tiny little bit of excess off there yeah now that sits perfectly there then I'm just going to remove this piece here and then I'm going to pop this piece through and I want to make sure that I get it in the center so about there and then I'm going to just make sure it doesn't move around I'm just going to pop some hot glue either side and just let that kind of do its thing just really needs to go a little bit that way there we go so I'm just going to let that sit for a minute yeah just put some faux stitching on these pieces and I'm just going to stick these in place again just waiting for that hot glue to really set on that buckle before I stick it down these ones here just pinch around the tops because they're completely optional but I don't know just thought it adds a nice touch and I'm probably going to do a bit more stitching on this one just because it's Mrs Claus I quite like the faux stitching and then this piece here I'm just going to stick right down through the center and then with the other sides of this I'm just going to pop some glue and again sit this in the center and it's this that does it you could put that on anything and it would just look really really fun I love it I actually think I use the same buckles on the ones I did last year so okay so now I want to make the little collar here so what I'm going to probably do is I would like to have that scalloped detail so I might even let's just try something I haven't done it this way let's have a look so I'm just going to use this punch like so that's a two and a half punch and then I'm just going to line try and get like the center so one and a quarter I think so let's see because this is two and a half here so it may well yeah look I think that works perfectly so because I was going to add a little necklace as well like some and I was going to do some little gold so I'd like it to tuck under there a little bit more but then I've got oh that doesn't matter though yeah I think that looks really quite cute doesn't it I really like it I guess it could be Father Christmas still but I'm going to go with Mrs Claus and then I think I'm going to do like a little necklace or something there so I'm going to get these stuck down first so yeah if you get yourself a two and a half roughly diameter circle and you can do it just you know with a plain circle it would still look nice but if you've got a scalloped one or something with a nice little decorative finish then it would just add a little bit more character to the bag yeah I think that looks quite sweet again it's completely optional but I am just going to pop a little just a little chain there just so I don't know I look at it I'm looking at it in the monitor and I just don't know I do like it but maybe I'll just keep it plain let me know what you think I'm going to leave it plain because I can add this on whenever and let me tell me what you think do you think I should add the necklace or not it's got a load of glitter on it now so which doesn't matter anyway but yeah let me know what you think because I love it like that anyway I'm going to pop these to to one side and I can always yeah because I'd add them again later okay so I'll quickly make the tags I'm just going to punch one of these large circles and then I've got a two and a half punch here sorry that's two and a half and this is a two inch and that one's just going to stick in the center there and then I went around it with the Posca pen again just to add a little bit more stitching I think I may add some along maybe I don't know sometimes I end up doing too much okay then I just want to stamp my image so let's find which one I want to use I've got Christmas wishes Merry Christmas on the other ones so let's do well there's happy holidays so we do that one there we go these have got such a lovely font I really like those ones a lot although that one seems to have smudged or something on that okay let's turn it over stamp it again and then I'm just going to add because that still might be a bit wet I'm just going to add a foam pad in the center of that one and then just pop that there and then I'm just going to do some stitching I'm just going to punch a hole I'm just using the smaller from the crocodile I'm just going to pop one at the top like so and then I've got this nice twine here which has got all the colors through it's the green red and white I've used this a lot especially for wrapping as well it's really nice I always cut off more than I need but it's okay just thread that through I kind of do another top first like so and then just on the front handle I'm just going to wrap that around and then just tie it off in a nice bow okay so there is the finished bag I really like it like I said let me know in the comments if you think I should add a little necklace or not but I just think it looks great either way I'm really pleased with these so that's Mrs Claus then you've got Mr Claus for Father Christmas I've just added more black on that one so just to give you ideas on how different you can make them and then the elf I do really like this one I think it looks really really cute so yeah there you have them very very easy to make the gift bag on its own is great just for you know birthdays and any occasion really but just adding those touches onto the front and choosing your colors can then make it into more of a novelty thing so yeah I really like them so thank you for watching please give me a thumbs up if you've enjoyed today and consider subscribing so you get to see more bye


I think you should know you of the Capitol Press Corps who are here. This is Mayor Moses of Fort Wayne, and here is Governor Orr of Indiana, and my good friend Governor Jim Rhodes of Ohio, Ohio and Wisconsin are all, or Michigan I should say, are all involved in this flood, but we were, as you know, in Oklahoma, and I wanted to make this stop. Congressman Coates of this district has been in communication with our people about this and I'm looking forward to talking with him, but I wanted to see for myself and certainly what the people know here that their neighbors in the rest of the country are registered. This is quite a, quite a story that's been going on here. The, literally the, I can't say that all of the emergencies have been stopped. We know it hasn't been great distress for the people, but it could have been far worse had it not been for thousands of volunteers including young people who have been working literally around the clock and sandbagging the dykes and helping to prevent this from being worse. You see from the air, I saw too many houses with water all around them. But in Oklahoma we went over Bartlesville and saw that swath of destruction there that had been caused by the tornadoes yesterday. President, we're really going to have to move. Well, they tell me we have to move. Do you mind if you declare this a disaster area? Well, that's what is going to be, our people are in communication on this and we will be talking about that. So, mainly now you're going to see the evacuees and they pick up? Yes. Well, I think first of all try to tell them how much all their neighbors in this country feel for them, how concerned we are. Maybe this would be a good time for from coast to coast and border to border for our people to remember the navaliness and offer a hand here and help. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. A lot of people, but at the same time, right along here is something that I think is working. Our whole team is here and meeting with the local officials on all of this. I think we did it all right. Well, the team is here to see there are certain people. Oh, no. Okay, back down. Hey, people watch the buses back there, okay? Come on, let's go. Don't stop to go yet. Oh, God.


How's everybody doing welcome back to my channel this week? We are here at the buddy our expo and we are gonna be Tattooing alongside the whole entire team. We have eight artists coming with us. We got a nice little area here It's a whole square I'm really excited for this weekend just because we haven't had we haven't done an expo as a team in so long So it's more than the expo.   I'm about to start tattooing. I don't see anybody tattooing just yet So I feel a little weird that I'm gonna start first But this is the project that we're gonna be doing we have the astronaut here on the top as day one This is day one. We got the two planets here. I'm gonna freehand the galaxy and yeah, it's gonna be fun the approach that I'm gonna be taking today is I Have my reference here with some yellows a lot of yellows a little bit of turquoise here, but My most important thing about this is the highlight of the astronaut the background I'm gonna play with it to make sure that I That I'm able to showcase a reflection of the helmet What's given it that reflection? So that that is why I put here this planet This planet is gonna be bright orange and yellow so we can reflect on to the onto the helmet that way it makes sense But other than that the only the most important thing for me is to these two things other than that I'm taking off We I just free-handed this meteor here. Oh, how would you call it? asteroid asteroid asteroid or asteroid or meteor one of those I Just free-handed it real quick What I'm gonna be doing is with a seven-round liner. I'm gonna create the rock that's creating the fire Outside of the ring. I'm gonna be doing like a brown to make it look like the fire is fading into the blue I don't if you can see my setup here I don't have brown, but if you mix your blue yellow red and black it gives you brown After you get that brown look, I'm gonna navigate getting closer to my red then my yellow to make it look like it's glowing and that is on fire So here we are on the second day of the body our expo yesterday was pretty dope We were able to finish the thigh area now. We're gonna be doing the center of the piece and then the lower part of the arm The arm the leg I forgot what what is this called? What is this part of the body called? Yesterday was pretty dope. We ended up taking a best color tattoo of the day and we took best second place best leg category It's gonna be fun today Saturday is gonna be super busy. So It's actually pretty good man like the time goes by Twice as fast because you got all the people rolling around something to watch Day one was a little easier because we just started on the upper thigh and day two we went right for the kneecap So it's a little bit more sensitive, but I'm doing pretty good. So we're going with Kind of ocean all the way up through space. My wife has the same kind of theming from Kevin So we're trying to match it up without matching exactly here Popo a la muerte