Probability. We probably use this word as often as, oh wait, I already said it. Probably. Most of you would probably know what the probability of getting tails in a coin-flipping experiment is. But what is the definition of probability? Let's analyse what we already know about it. Probability is a measure of a likelihood of an event occurring. The bigger the probability, the more likely it is that the event will occur. The lowest probability is zero, and the highest is one, or 100%. So it should be something that varies between zero and one, and grows when the chance of success grows. To construct probability fairly, we first need to make a sample space, which is a set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. For example, sample space for dice-throwing experiment is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Sample space for coin-flipping experiment is heads or tails. For pulling one card out of a deck, it's... For a result in a roulette round, it's... Sometimes it's not as obvious. For example, try to write a sample space for flipping two coins together. Pause the video and try doing it yourself first. The correct sample set is HH, HT, TH and TT, where H means heads and T is tails. We end up with four different events, because HT and TH are different occurrences. So the probability of getting one heads and one tails is higher than the probability of getting two tails. After we construct a sample space, it's pretty easy to find the probability of an event. We just need to find the ratio between the number of outcomes that satisfy our event and the total number of outcomes. For example, let's find the probability of getting more than nine as a sum of two-roll dice. Our event is a sum that's greater than nine. Outcomes that satisfy our event are 5, 5, 6, 4, 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 5 and 6, 6. The number of all possible outcomes is 6 times 6, which equals 36. So our probability is 6 over 36, or 1, 6. Another example, what's the probability of getting a card of spades or an ace from a standard 52 card deck if we get one out blindly? How many cards satisfy our event? We have 13 spades cards and 4 aces, so 13 plus 4 is 17. But we counted ace of spades two times, so there are only 16 cards. As a result, our probability is 16 over 52, or 4 thirteenths. And now a task for you. There are three blue, five red and four yellow balls in a hat. Can you find what the probability of getting a yellow ball from the hat with only one try is? Pause the video and try to find the answer. The correct answer is a third or four twelts. There are four yellow balls. The total number of balls is 12, so our probability is four twelts or one third. And finally, what does probability show and how can we use it? You could say that even if an event has a probability of one in a million, it still may occur. But it's so low, why would you even consider it? Okay, you're right. But probability also shows us that if you repeat an experiment many times, the ratio between successful outcomes and all the outcomes become closer to your probability of success.  That's why you definitely win on a roulette table the longer you play. This is called the law of large numbers. Watch the second part of this video to find out what restrictions this approach has and what its consequences are.


Hi, I'm Mike, past pharmacist, and I want to talk a little bit about hot flashes, menopause, and certainly one of the problems with menopause is certainly going to be the hot flashes, and certainly there are those hormones that certainly will help to balance the body, but there are certain things, other things that will help with the body, and a good example is fish oil. Fish oil will help to reduce the inflammatory process, and many times help to alleviate hot flashes. One of the other problems with hot flashes are that the hormones are not working appropriately, and many times when there is stress, your hormones do not work appropriately because your stress hormones will not allow the hormones to work at the receptor site. So what you can do is you can take any one of the adaptogens, certainly Dr. Wilson's stress formulas, and he has a number of stress formulas, right, work very, very well to help to reduce hot flashes. Certainly natural micronized progesterone and creams certainly will help it. One of the things that works very well is called estrovera, it is a rhubarb extract, and that has been shown to reduce hot flashes.


A clinic in Park Rapids is encouraging the community to take care of their healthy with a day of free and low cost services. Reporter Cheryl Moore tells us how that story tells more on that story about the first Thursday clinic. The first Thursday of the month has become synonymous with being healthy. Thanks in part to the first Thursday clinic at Catholic Health Community Initiatives, St. Joseph's Community Health in Park Rapids. It just has kind of a nice little ring to it first Thursday in a time for the community to people we have some regulars that come for their A1C testing like every three months or six months. The clinic starts at one in the afternoon and ends at three. The services are provided to any adult who's 19 and older. They can have a hemoglobin A1C screening which is a test for pre-diabetes to kind of monitor their diabetes or to see if they are at risk for diabetes. They can have a regular hemoglobin test done which determines if they are anemic which would be low iron. We have a free blood pressure screening and then we also have some immunizations available for adults. Whether you're a regular or first timer at Catholic Health Initiatives everyone is welcome. Even if you don't make an appointment walk-ins are also welcome. One reason why community health chose to host first Thursday is to help manage preventable ailments. The A1C, the hemoglobin, are screening so that it is an opportunity for people to see what their hemoglobin is or their A1C and if they have some abnormal ranges we then refer them to their healthcare provider and they're able to do further testing and study. The first Thursday clinic has become a hit amongst attendees. Oftentimes companies will send groups of their employees to the clinic just to make sure everyone is taking care of their health. People really appreciate it, really appreciate the opportunity to come in. It's just a great service for community health. We provide many services in Park Rapids from prenatal visits all the way up to these senior health screenings so it's just one of the ranges of things that we do. Reporting in Park Rapids, Cheryl Moore, Lakeland News. To make an appointment for the first Thursday clinic you can call Community Health at the number on your screen. If you enjoyed this segment of Lakeland News please consider making a tax deductible contribution to Lakeland PBS.


Here's my Twitter name if you want to pursue me in the Twitter space. You may be wondering what a futurist is. I wonder about that myself. The name futurist was given to me by my clients who said, you always talk about the future. So I became a futurist, really what I do is I try to understand things that go on in the next sort of two to three years and trends in the next five years and I develop simple ideas for my clients based on scenarios. So I'm not a futurist like Toffler or like Paul Sappho or like Ray Codeswell, thankfully. I deal with pretty much for me is the present. So deforming ideas and basically figuring out what to do, I travel the world basically speaking about these things. Here are some of my clients. So let's move right into it. As all of you know, of course, the change in the last two years has been tremendous. But who would have foreseen something like this? People playing music on the iPhone. I used to be a musician, so back then in those days you would get punished. If you go to a guitar store and you play stairway to heaven, you get kicked out. Big science, no playing stairway to heaven. I'm sure you know about what I mean. So in the past of media was all a relatively simple game. It was a pretty straightforward situation until now. All of a sudden in media we're facing the same thing that we're facing in other industries from the internet and it's drastically changing. The past in media was essentially a domination game. He dominated the producers, the artists, distribution, marketing, promotion, selling all in one place. Today's example of that, of course, is iTunes. So we have walled gardens for telecoms. We have captive customers and we have iPod controlling everything and everything under our control. We're essentially looking at a situation where this in the past was number one. Controlling the consumer, controlling the artist, essentially what I call an ego system. So big broadcasters were all about themselves, about controlling the institution. We still had the debate, of course. This is the demise of the music industry, it is the ego system. So basically the future is different. The future is about the connected customer and the interconnected consumer, about people collaborating. And this sounds kind of California where I used to live probably for too long. But it's all about collaboration and creating revenue models together. It's basically about the merging of these things into this sort of new ecosystem and so going back to what I said earlier, we're essentially looking at an ecosystem, rather than an ego system. That sounds very sort of obvious, but here's the master of all futurists. Let's see what he says about this. The global village is a world in which you don't necessarily have harmony. You have extreme concern with everybody else's business. And much involvement in everybody else's life. It's a sort of Anne Lander's column writ large. And it doesn't necessarily mean harmony, peace and quiet, but it does mean huge involvement. Marshall McLuhan, it does not mean peace, harmony and quiet. It means to a large degree a certain kind of chaos. We're in a similar situation now very much to before the orchestra plays. Everybody tunes up its mayhem, right? But then they play a song or an opera, right? That's in a way where we are right now. I think that if you think this sounds kind of new agey, I don't agree. I saw a post this morning on Twitter saying another one of those save the world presentations. So I hope you don't misunderstand me. I think this is a very, very capitalist development that we're seeing from ecosystem to ecosystem. If you're looking at this trend, this is from the latest Morgan Stanley presentation, Mary Meeker at Web 2.0. It's quite interesting. The trend from the users being on the carriers website, all the way to the 2008 trend where the carriers were reduced by 2 thirds of the overall output. So the attention of the user has shifted away from the walled place to the open place. This is a crucial development we're going to see there. It's basically I think the future success in telecom will not be possible without real and deep engagement in media and content. And let me get this clear. I don't mean telecoms getting into content production, becoming record labels, right? But solving the problem of how content is being transacted on the internet and on mobile networks. Without that, I think we're looking at a very, very tough proposal going forward for the telecom industries. So obviously you're with me on this. I mean, we've seen all the long mobile social and all that are major game changes, right? Back to the two people playing with two figures. What we're seeing here in this graph from Cisco is most of the data in 2013 coming from video. But that's not surprising to any of you, I'm sure, as well. But this is where a lot of the change is being driven from mobile, social, and of course, video. This is parallel now in a trend that in February of this year, for the first time ever, email was surpassed by messages on social networks. The blue line is email, right? So for the first time ever, you could say social media beats email. And I blocked about this a year ago. I said email is for old people. That's essentially becoming true now. It's for a different context, right? Does video beat search? Or is that the trend that we're going to see? I think this is a very, very interesting observation if we look at the sort of model on the web, the vortex model. I'm giving away here now that 10 years ago, I was in the internet bubble business with a music company. We had a vortex model. That means pulling from the left and from the right to create value in the middle. There's a company you may know called telco2.0.net, STL partners. They have developed this model called a two-sided telecom model. I'm sure most of you are familiar with this. So I'm taking a piece from them basically saying, I think what we're seeing is that we have upstream customers and we have downstream customers. And we're connecting them with a new model, which creates value on both ends rather than just on one, so that the vortex can sort of start spinning. That sounds indeed kind of futurist. Let me bring it down to a more basic proposal, right? On the left, the upstream. On the right, the downstream value. Great example of this includes eBooks. With eBooks, we're going to see that value created in the middle. I, between the content owner, between the distributor, between the user. And the same goes, of course, for mobile phone applications like Facebook and others. And I think this trend is going to really grow in the next few years. That will be a very interesting overlap of those two vortex models. So the vortex of speed drivers that we're seeing right now already being implemented around the world is essentially the idea of packaging, bundling. We're seeing this primarily with music, which I'll show you a few examples after this. We're seeing that with creating sort of a magnetism for brands and for companies and with an entire new toll booth strategy. In other words, who pays for content? Why, when, and how, and with what? It's completely up to discussion. I think this is a page for the telecoms to take and basically jump on this proposal of essentially creating utility-type models for media, starting with music, proceeding into books, games, and so on, because there are real solutions here that are needed and also already being looked at. So basically, if you're looking at the sort of progress in the next few years, in books, for example, we have this proposition right now where we're essentially saying that books are very expensive right now. But if you buy the Kindle, then it's still very expensive. It's just a little bit cheaper, like a book is $10 rather than $20 or maybe $13, but not cheap enough. So what's happening afterwards is that we're going to go to a utility-type model of flat weights and bundles. Music will be first followed by books, and that is going to look like this. We essentially have a new ecosystem of how we sell. And what we sell, in other words, is selling only starts with the flat rate, doesn't stop with the flat rate. In Germany, they're calling the music flat rate a cultural flat rate. This debate is raging as an antidote to the three strikes, which I'll comment on shortly. Ironically, of course, when we're done with the flat rate, we may well be selling even more expensive things afterwards. Content pricing will flip. In music, we're seeing a trend towards what was already true 10 years ago. A song for 10 cents would easily sell. Is there anybody here who wouldn't buy 100 songs for $10 or 10 euros? Everybody, why would you bother? There's one person. Don't be too public about this. The price is sinking like this. If you put all of the videos online, the DVDs of Warner, they would make one fifth, maybe only one tenth of the money. But what is happening on the other end of the equation is that all of a sudden, the 2% of people that are using iTunes-like service, they would grow like this. Lower prices and ubiquitous use. That's really what you want. Everybody paying a little bit to create a larger momentum. This is what we're going to see in music in the next 18 months, starting with companies like Glass of M, Spotify, Pandora, and so on, leading us very close to the model of Chris Anderson, the freemium model. Freemium meaning that you get something for free, only to then pay more for the premium. Very interesting model. And on top of that, don't forget, of course, the flat rate model means that you can build an entirely new business on top. And this is where it gets interesting. If you want to sell music books, films, television, on the web today, you cannot just sell the copy of zeros and ones. It isn't going to work. You have to sell added values on top of the zeros and ones, on top of the copy. It builds every single attempt to sell music on a per unit base or subscription has pretty much failed except for Apple. And what do they sell? iPods. They make money with hardware. So music by itself is not a selling factor. Everything around it becomes a selling factor, and this model is going to grow in all content industries. Perfect model for the telecom companies to sit on top of. Because creating value when something is really sticky is always going to be a lot easier. Take the New York Times. People are saying that if people stop buying the print edition, we have a big problem. Well, the fact, of course, is content is only 20% of the cost of most newspapers. The rest of the cost is this very building, the trucks, the printing presses, the ink, the infrastructure. So if the cost gets reduced by 80% in theory, we should be able to be able to shift it over here into this. Is that going to hurt the production of content? Probably not. But it hurts the entire business model around who sells what and why. What are we paying for? It's a very painful shift, of course. Big question mark if that is going to be successful when you already have an existing business. So the future really is, as I was suggesting earlier, the idea of bundle plus. Essentially saying you get the bundle as already included in the network access, ISP access, mobile phone contracts, and so on. And of course, the phone itself, like Nokia is trying. But then sell other things on top. This is the crucial Isberg effect. The bundle is only the way to get going. And it's only the very first step. And again, music is the most obvious place. You can sell access to high-definition recordings for people who love jazz or classical music, easy sell. You listen to the badly streamed version on Pandora Last of M, whatever you have. But if you want high-definition, you buy into the high-deaf club for another 50 euros. People would do this, because they see value in high-definition. Things like live streams, virtual goods, social commerce, and so on. This is the ideal place for telecom companies to be involved. Because guess what? In this model, data is the new oil. The data that is being generated that's being used and that can be used for things like next generation advertising is a huge amount of value. Forget everything you know about advertising today. It's a $670 billion industry shifting towards digital, mobile, and content supporting. So there's a great amount of value there. We do have to ask ourselves, where is the value of content? Is this the value? That's what it used to be. When you buy a book, you don't have ads. 100% of the book is paid for with your money, the writing. Not the writer, but the writing. So that was the past. The future is going to be a little bit more fragmented, as I'm sure everything else is pretty much becoming more fragmented. It is moving to a model to where we have a selection of different values, context, curation, timeliness, embodiment, relevance, and many other values. Chris Anderson's new book called Free is being given away for free at wire.com. The Amp3 you can download for free. If you buy the edited version, which is half of the length of the other version, so four hours rather than eight, you pay $8. He's going to get you to pay for him to cut down the version and make it shorter. That's the package. And we're going to see those models all over the internet, adding value. That's what people will charge for. This is the past, selling the file, the copy of content. The future is selling the package. If you want to read to more about this, then you should check out kevinkelly.org. He blocks about this all the time. So what we're seeing in the future is essentially a big shift. What matters is no longer that we can actually download. That matters to some, of course. But what we download, who we connect with, what we select, the context, the curation, the New York Times won't be read by their readers because of their writers. That's one part of the equation, because of their curation, because of trust, because of all the stuff that they serve up that's extra. I will use iTunes, not because I get legal music, but because they give me guidance to what I should select because of all the added values. So there's great opportunity here, I think, in this space, if we're looking at this direction, to lubricate the system and make it liquid. Telecom companies have in the past not want to get involved with this because it's a dangerous place. Are you responsible in parenthesis? This has to stop, because if you don't do this, somebody else will be the lubricant. It's already happening with Google in China, where they have taken responsibility for legal payments of music for the Chinese search engine top 100, which is owned by Google. Here's Group of Murdoch. The digital age is almost over. The aggregators and plagiarists will soon have to pay a price for the co-opting of our content. But if we do not take advantage of the current movement toward paid-for content, it would be the content creators, the people in this hall, who will pay the ultimate price, and the content Clapdomaniacs will triumph. The content Clapdomaniacs will triumph if we don't start paying for content. That's very interesting. Is that wishful thinking? Or does he want his competitors to do this, to see them sing first? This is a very interesting scenario, basically enforcing payment of this nature has been tried. Doesn't work. What works is to get payment by empowering the user. It's as simple as that. That is the model, of course. That's a telco model. Anyway, if you're a telco business, what are you waiting for? This is your turf empowering the user to get the payment. So this model isn't going to work. Building walls, we've tried this in music. Now we're going to do it with books. We're going to get DRM books. That model isn't going to work. The quickest path towards economic suicide is to build a wall around your content. And that is what is the big opportunity in this space right now to help working on this model. Spotify. Anybody know Spotify? It's pretty well known music service, started by a guy named Daniel Eck in Sweden. This is Spotify on the iPhone. Mobile app this time for the iPhone. So here we go. I'll just open up the app to see the Spotify playlist I've created previously. Select the playlist I want. Choose a track. And as you see, it'll start streaming pretty much immediately. Next, I'll go back to the playlist and show you a feature we really like. Tap the offline playlist button. Select the playlist you want made available offline. And all the tracks will be synced to your phone. The celestial jukebox that we've always wanted, right? That seems to be Spotify. Well, there's a tiny problem here. The tiny problem is quite simply this. The content and pricing and licensing issues cannot be solved without the engagement of telecoms. Spotify has to pay close to one cent per track that they play. If they're lucky, I don't know what exactly the deal is. They pay one tenth of a cent. But either way, this will amount to billions of dollars of license fees, right? I mean, I'm sure other people have done the math here. This won't work just like Nokia comes with music. The telecoms have to get engaged to work out these deals on a much larger basis. And I think this is going to be crucial for the future. Here's already one of those deals, three in the UK. Anybody from three here? Three in the UK has made a deal for Spotify to be bundled into the handset for 35 quid. You get the music plus calls, plus SMS, plus all the other stuff, right? Very interesting development. This already happened in other places as well. And of course, this points squarely to the solution of the issue is the collaboration between telecoms, advertising, next generation advertising, and social networks. That's where the juice comes from, right? That's where the money flows, right? If we can ever figure out how to get one connected with the other, right? It takes a certain amount of pressure to get this, which is public, open, and standardized content licenses. As in radio or television, this is what we're going to see. There is no radio station wondering about how much they're going to pay for playing music. There's a law. There's a provision. We're going to see this happening as well in the future of music, and that's the bomb within Spotify is that this doesn't exist. Right now, that is a very tough position to be in. I think rights holders and content owners have the choice between controlling and declining revenues or open up and find new revenues. And this is your moment if you're in the telecom business. They need you to figure this out. All the choice they have is keep up the control as we've seen in music, DVD sales, content from Murdoch all the way down to his son. Controlled way of getting more revenues isn't going to happen. The only choice they have is to open up and go with what you're offering, which is market access. And please forget what you know about advertising when we talk about advertising. This kind of advertising, I took myself by land, disrupted advertising, the news that nobody wants to see or this kind of advertising on YouTube showing me a way to buy US Airways tickets when I watch a video about the crash at the same time.  That isn't going to bring in the money. So what we're going to see is a complete restart of what advertising means. Advertising will become content itself. We're going to see this kind of yelling effect that we had offline and on the internet that isn't going to be happening on the mobile. $675 billion moving into this kind of situation should be plenty to support a lot of free content, just like it has in the past with radio and television. So I could see the French president until now or up to now just passed a law in France last week saying that people can be disconnected if they download illegally, which basically means everyone. So what we're seeing here is passing a law that nobody cares about anyway because everybody is guilty. This kind of development obviously, the idea of doing this really is friction is fiction. That's all you can say about this. Anybody that has anything to do with this knows that it's just not going to work to pressure people into buying something at a certain price because you think you can control the network. That is something that is not going to last. What is going to last is collaboration. And as Eric Schmick says, let's hear what he says. But we do know is that this product is getting built. And so the challenge and the opportunity is to figure out how to make money in that. But you won't get there by suing your end users. You won't get there by preventing this technology from happening. It's going to happen. OK. I think if we all believe in this, I'm going to save you this one with Charlie Rose at Enderson. You have to watch that yourself on charlierose.com. But it gives us more because we don't have enough time. We have to move on with books. Books are going to be 100 times as big as music. Education. Think about this happening on a flat rate access model. That is going to happen. The idea of getting books in the stream, that is absolutely, humongously, a huge business that you have to get into. So we're looking at this course of events, essentially, music, news, games, and books, and television, and music, and so on, moving into the same stream. If we're out of time, let's please skip to slide number 42. So as a summary, what we're seeing here is a complete convergence of previously disconnected places. And you're lucky enough to be right in the middle of this. Telecom, content and media, advertising, social networks, essentially, moving in together and creating a very interesting new telemedia environment. I think the telecom space has to take the leadership here because there's a lot of good things that you can bring to the table to solve these issues across the board. We're looking at a situation like this to where there's many people fishing in the telecom bowl, including, of course, Google, Facebook, and Twitter. And that has to be solved. I want to advance to the third last slide, please, the third one before the last, because there's a lot more, yes. Otherwise, you'll be here on Sunday, and I want to prevent this, right? Okay, so just to wrap up, it's not about transporting the bits and the content, it's about transporting the meaning of that content, the context, the network, the relationships. Think about media as a service just like we're now talking about software as a service. Media as a service can be humongously successful starting with music and get you into the flow of entire new revenue models. So just to summarize, and I'll be really gone, ecosystem, collaboration, content like a utility, collaboration, and lubrication, WD-40. Thanks very much, and please feel free to harass me on the internet and do escape sometimes.


Earlier we have discussed different techniques of monitoring this r-diam construction, now this is a typical figure, it shows this how this instrumentation has been made, if you look at SM means strong motion acylogram, SM is here strong motion acylogram graph, so for monitoring particularly earthquake tremors and T H is your temperature sensor, if you look at here this is your temperature sensor at the along the surface of this slope, E X is your extension meter, E X is your extension meter identify movement of your dam basement and P Z is your piezometers, P Z is your piezometers that means how much is your pore water pressure developed this is for P Z, P C is your pressure cell if you look at this P C these are all typical red color this is P C, P C and P C pressure cell along the width of this dam along the length direction it has been placed, so that how much pressure transferred from this dam to this foundation soil you can measure it, S C is your settlement cell, S C is your settlement cell and W L is your water level meter, this is your W L W L is your water level meter, these are all your water level meters, then similar kind of also there is another also earth field dam, one is your this is your rock field dam, second is your earth field dam in this case of earth field dam in the core if this is this is the core, this is your core part in this core you have your S M strong muscle nacellograph and you have also your you have your also S P, S P and as well as your pressure meters all virtual instrumentation has been placed in case of earth field dam in the core, then key components for design of instrumentations that means put in redundancy, that means instrumentation will get lost due to construction activities and equipment will stop working, so protect equipment from the contractors that means put in safe area mark equipment and protected during installation and post installation, then last is your spend money, so can remotely monitor and collect data and consider data analysis cost also this part also you have to taken into consider, then these are all your references taken from this geotechnical instrumentation for monitoring field performance by Duncliffe 1993, Will St. Sons publications, then US curves of engineers instrumentation of embankment and dams and lifts, so these are all these are all your key references. Now next slide we are going to start a new topic that is your design of your reinforced soil structure, design of your reinforced soil structure, this is also part of application of soil mechanics, reinforced soil structure that means soil structure whatever is there it has been reinforced by outside material, now reinforced earth structures it is particularly this why there is a reinforcement required particularly earth structures to exhibit a certain level of stability against your earthquake events, that means how important of this structure and particularly that area what is the seismicity of that area concerned that will also taken into consideration, how have earth structures performed during recent large earthquake that means that is your new seismic design procedures, in new seismic design procedures number one is your what are the physical mechanism working behind this seismic performance of earth structures, what is the physical, what is the physics behind it, how to design earth structure against high seismic load, how to design, then a comparative study of different design methods approaches, recent case history in Japan in 1993 to 2007 of earthquake magnitude varying from 7.6 to 6.6, now earthquake cause severe damage to highway embankments and on reinforced retaining wall is typically shown in this following slides, in the slides particularly where the earthquake cause a severe damage that means highway embankment particularly embankment and on reinforced retaining structures, if you look at here gravity type of retaining wall it happened in 1995 earthquake, Nanbu earthquake this is your gravity retaining wall this retaining wall is gravity retaining wall the damage has been made it has been taken from that side, how this damage is there because of earthquake, now second is one is your cantilever retaining wall if you look at here this is your cantilever retaining wall this damage because of your 1995 Nanbu earthquake, then this cantilever retaining wall is without any deep foundation, second is your collapse of retaining wall along national highway route 17 and adjacent embankment along Jetsu line it is a 2004 Niigata earthquake, if you look at here it is in this particularly this area is your 56 kilometer and 56 sorry 56 meter it has been damaged because of your earthquake, then collapse of retaining wall along national highway route 17, if you look at here reconstructed during particularly using GRS retaining wall, GRS retaining wall how the construction has been going on this is the first one is your means collapse of your retaining wall and this is by using your reinforced earth how this construction process is going on, then again 2004 Niigata earthquake one is your tunnel there is a damage of the tunnel also it lies nearby the river that is Sinano river nearby this river this is your damage failure of unreinforced embankment this is one is your retaining wall I have shown now unreinforced embankment it has never been reinforced it is just unreinforced embankment it is in case of it is 2004 Niigata earthquake, if you look at here this embankment how this there is a failure of unreinforced embankment, then same also unreinforced embankment then collapse of retaining wall at Kashiwajiki city because of 2007 Niigata earthquake if you look at here collapse of the retaining wall here this collapse of your complete retaining wall these are all examples involved in large scale landslide if you look at here large scale landslides also occurs because of landslides there is a gravity type of retaining wall it also collapse that means past earthquakes have provided numerous case studies of unreinforced soil wall performance under dynamic loading that means if I go to the previous study it gives numerous case studies these are all your case studies in Japan where your unreinforced soil wall performance under this dynamic loading or earthquake loading numerous cases have been reported where reinforced soil structure performance in major earthquake both means we have case study of reinforced as well as unreinforced soil wall performance under earthquake loading reinforced soil structure have performed well in earthquakes there means these are all reported people who have reported reinforced soil structures how it has been it performed particularly during your earthquake reconstruction of failed wall using geosynthetic reinforcement if you look at here reconstruction of failed wall using geosynthetic reinforcement these are all your geosynthetic by using geosynthetic reinforcement geosynthetic reinforcement if you look at here geosynthetic reinforcement there is a reconstruction of this failed wall, then reconstruction using combination of geo-synthetic reinforced retaining structures wall and anchoring, if you look at here these are all your anchoring, anchoring has been made here this point if you look at this is a point of your anchor, anchoring has been made this is a point of your anchoring along with your geo-synthetic stabilization using also soil nail these are all called anchoring by means of soil nailing. Now whatever we have discussed these are all your case studies discussion means basically one is your unreinforced earth unreinforced retaining wall as well as embankment there are case studies how it fails during earthquake then how it has been constructed to sustain your earthquake loading then what is the fundamental mechanics soil has an inherently low tensile strength as you know soil has a low tensile strength, but a high compressive strength which is only limited by the ability of soil to resist applied shear stresses soil has high compressive strength which is only limited by the ability of the soil to resist applied shear stresses. An objective of incorporating soil reinforcement is to observe tensile loads is to observe tensile loads or shear stresses thereby reducing the loads which might otherwise cause the soil to fail in shear or by excess deformation that means reducing load once you are reducing load what will happen to that load this load cause the soil to fail excessive load cause the soil to fail in terms of by shear or by means of excess deformation. If I by means if I reduce this load coming to the soil by applying by giving your soil reinforcement then also it satisfy this design criteria there is some similarity to the principle of reinforced concrete as the reinforced mass may be consider a composite material that means soil with reinforced wall if this is a soil then if I say it is soil with reinforcement soil this these are all your reinforcement reinforcement soil with reinforcement that means there is some similarity to the principle of reinforced concrete as the reinforced mass may be consider as a composite material soil with your reinforcing material may be consider as a composite material with improved properties particularly in tension shear and over the soil or concrete alone. Now range of applications this reinforced earth wall range of application if you look at number of application is your there some applications I have just numeraries one is your wall and abutments this is your wall and abutments second is your reinforced slope there is simple slope and this slope has been reinforced by means of geotextile or other materials if you look at these are all your reinforced slope you can reinforce the slope by also soil nailing then if you look at here reinforced slope is your reinforcement you can provide at the base at the base of your slope you can provide the reinforcement this is your reinforcement has been provided at the base of the slope or you can provide reinforcement along the slope that means a firm layer with a thin soft layer you can provide also you can provide reinforcement in pile embankment if this is your pile then you can at the top you can provide your reinforcement then embankment you can provide then reinforcement over area prone to subsidence that means potential weak zones or voids if there is a potential weak zone or voids then above this you can also provide reinforcement types of reinforcement geometry three types of reinforcement geometry can be considered first is your linear unidirectional that means strips including smooth or ribbed steel strip or coated geosynthetic strips over a load carrying fiber over a load carrying fiber second is your composite unidirectional one is your linear unidirectional second is your composite unidirectional that means for example grids or bars or mat characterized by grid spacing greater than 150 mm greater than 150 mm this comes under composite unidirectional then is your planner bidirectional that means continuous sheets of geosynthetics welded wire mesh and woven wire mesh the mesh is characterized by element spacing of less than 150 mm this is your planner bidirectional second is your first we have discussed about the mechanics then second part we have discussed types of reinforcement geometry what are the different types of geometry first one is linear unidirectional second is your composite unidirectional third is your planner bidirectional then third part is your reinforcing material what are the different materials used as a reinforcement distinction can be made between the characteristics of metallic and nonmetallic reinforcement that means metallic and nonmetallic reinforcement can be characterized metallic reinforcement typically we are using mild steel the steel is usually galvanized or may be epoxy coated look at here may be epoxy coated the steel is usually galvanized or may be epoxy coated these are called metallic reinforcement nonmetallic reinforcement generally in case of nonmetallic reinforcement we provide polymeric materials that means consisting of polypropene polythene or polyester that means nonmetallic reinforcement generally polymeric materials it consists of polypropylene polythene or polyester reinforcing materials are two types one is your metallic reinforcement generally we use mild steel with coated with epoxy epoxy and second one is your nonmetallic reinforcement this is a polymeric material it may be polypropylene polyethylene or polyester there are two classes reinforcing extensibility the next phase is your fourth part is your reinforcing extensibility there are two classes of extensibility in extensible and second is your extensible in case of in extensible the deformation of the reinforcement at failure is much less than the deformability of soil in extensible in extensible means if I compare with the soil mass that means the deformation in the soil mass will be more and the deformation of the reinforcing material or reinforcement is less second one is your extensible if I look at the extensible the deformation of the reinforcement at failure is comparable or even greater than deformability of soil that means if I compare with the soil this if it is extensible reinforcement that means the then reinforcement may be equal to the your deformation of your soil or the deformation of reinforcement is even more than your deformation of soil that means two classes of extensibility one is in extensible means every reinforcing material is extensible but we classify into in extensible and extensible the moment we say in extensible that means if I compare with the soil the deformation in reinforcement will be less as compared to soil but in case of extensible the deformation the deformation in reinforcement will be same to your deformation of soil or may be more than your deformation of soil so that is why it is called extensible now shear failure of soil soil generally fails in shear if you look at the basic mechanics there is a retaining wall retaining wall has been constructed to retain the soil mass so that a structure or man made structure can be made above this retain soil if you look at how this shear failure occurs soil try to soil try to push this retaining wall if I if you look at the animation soil try to push this retaining wall that means if retaining wall is away that means it acts active earth pressure look at this there will be mobilization of shear resistance and there will be a failure surface it does not mean that entire part of the retaining mass of the soil will fail there will be a mobilized shear resistance and failure surface this is your failure surface that means inside this failure surface mobilization of shear resistance occur at failure shear stress along the failure surface reaches the shear strength at failure shear stress along the failure surface reaches your shear strength shear stress along the failure surface reaches the shear strength of your soil shear failure mechanism if you look at the shear failure mechanism failure surface soil grains slide over with each other along the failure surface that means if I say this is my failure surface that means soil grains slide over each other along the failure surface no crossing in this case no crossing of individual grains crossing means no breaking of individual grains that means soil will soil grains will slide over each other if there is one soil grain if there is another soil grain what will happen the soil grain dotted line is slide over the soil grain is slide over another soil grain that means there is no crossing of individual grains that means if this is a soil grain if there is another soil grain it should not be it should not be it should not be like a crossing or breaking of soil particles no so this is the sear failure mechanism if I take a along the failure surface I can take small element what are they are acted now if you look at here at failure sear stress along the failure surface tau at failure this is my failure surface at failure sear stress along the failure surface this is sear stress along the failure surface this is called tau reaches your sear strength of soil reaches your shear strength of soil that is called tau f shear strength of your soil that is called tau f. Mohr–Coulomb failure criteria that means in terms of total stress if I draw the Mohr–Coulomb failure criteria that means tau f is equal to C plus sigma tan phi C is your cohesion and tau f is your failure envelope and phi is your frictional angle tau f is your maximum shear stress this soil can take without failure tau f is your maximum shear stress soil can take without failure under normal stress of under normal stress of sigma then Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion in terms of effective stresses effective stress angle is your phi prime and effective cohesion is your C prime and sigma prime is equal to sigma minus u is equal to pore water pressure. So this is a Mohr–Coulomb diagram versus stress versus shear stress versus your normal stress tau f is the maximum shear stress the soil can take without failure under normal effective stress sigma prime look at here total stress and effective stress it is your sigma prime if I go to the total stress if I go to the total stress it is only sigma in that means in total stress there is no generation of pore water pressure or may be the pore water pressure expulsion means complete pore water pressure has been generated. So has been built up so in case of effective stresses this will be your sigma prime.  So tau f is equal to C prime C prime sigma prime f tan phi m.  A quick note C and phi are measures of shear strength higher the value means higher the value of C and phi higher the shear strength higher your shear strength Mohr circle of stresses if this is your soil element if you take it soil element in the soil mass then this will your sigma 1 prime and sigma 3 prime and with this a theta then you are getting tau and sigma prime reserving forces in sigma and tau direction you will get it tau is equal to sigma 1 prime minus sigma 3 prime by 2 sin 2 theta then sigma prime is equal to sigma 1 prime plus sigma 3 prime by 2 plus sigma 1 prime minus sigma 3 prime by 2 into cos 2 theta then you will get also another equation in terms of tau square plus sigma prime into sigma 1 prime plus sigma 3 prime by 2 whole square is equal to sigma 1 prime minus sigma 3 prime by 2 whole square. Now, if I draw a more circle between sigma 1 prime and sigma 3 prime, if you look at this is my more circle and this is your center sigma 1 prime plus sigma 3 prime by 2 and this will your sigma 1 prime radius will your sigma 3 prime by 2 this is your radius. Now, intersection of principle planes is your pole as I said intersection of principle stress is your pole. So, what will happen if you look at your sigma 1 is your major principle stress sigma 3 is your minor. So, sigma 1 is acting in this direction intersection that means this is your sigma 1 and sigma 3 is acting sigma 3 is acting if you the plane is like this if from sigma 3 if I am drawing a plane like this this is your sigma 1 plane then intersection of principle planes that in this point this is your pole with respect to pole if you draw a line of your failure plane at an angle theta where it touches that is giving your sigma and tau at failure plane I will stop it here. So, next class I will go in details of more circle of stresses.


Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. And folks, head on over to the front page of TFNN. You can check out the Tiger Forex Report by Teddy Kegstad. It's up here. The first issue released this morning. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Thanks for doing the promo for the newsletter today. Appreciate it. Well, listen, I'll tell you, thank you so much for doing such a great job for the listeners being out here doing these weekly segments, Teddy. And we're excited for this letter. I know we've gotten some good feedback in terms of the excitement of you putting out a product on a weekly basis, talking about the forex market. And maybe you can just talk to us a little bit, Teddy, off the bat about what you'll be doing on the letter. And folks, it's all right here on the front page of TFNN. You can save 25% off. I'll check it out. I'll show you in a second for the life of your subscription. But if you could just talk to the listeners, the viewers about what you'll be doing for the letter and what you'll be talking about in that letter, Teddy. Sure. Well, I'm going to highlight, obviously, the major forex pairs. And also, I'm going to also highlight the dollar index, as well as the 30-year Treasury bond and crude oil because of their influences on different currency pairs. So as I break down each market, I'll have different levels so that anyone that subscribes to their newsletter, they can key off of those levels and be aware of them, especially for dictating on what positions they are. It's not necessarily trying to guide somebody into a position as much as it is as making sure people are aware of where their risks should be and where they should be watching out for markets to move. It's pretty cool. And I do have the first issue up. I'm going to give them a quick glimpse, Teddy, as I slide through. But you have some great charts in here, man. You kick it off with the dollar. You got resistance areas. You have corrective support zones. You talk about where things may be bearish. If it breaks certain levels, you do a great job with the charts, man. I'm excited to read this letter myself on Mondays. I am.  You can hit the Subscribe button, OK? And the code that you enter is Teddy25. You see the promo code section? I have it up on my screen right now. Teddy25. Just make sure you hit the Add button. And you'll see you save 25%, which is $24.25 off the $97. And that gets you to a price of $72.75. And you lock that in for the life of your subscription as long as you subscribe, folks, not a one-month deal. I encourage you to check it out. It still comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. So lock that in. Don't miss that special. And if it doesn't fit your trading, if you don't have the time for it, worst case, just ask for that 30-day money-back guarantee. You got nothing to risk. All right, let's talk a little bit of market, Teddy. So we kick things off, man. You got the S&Ps. Start the day positive. We're snuck into the negative a bit by 13 points. We got bonds the 10-year back at about 3.2. And we have crewed sitting pretty healthily, right? At like pretty healthy, I should say, about 108. What are you looking at in this market as we come into the July 4th holiday weekend? We do have a holiday market coming up. So all traders out there, please be wary of Thursday afternoon and to Friday. So expect a lot of people in the finance business are taking a long weekend. You can count on that. So it's gonna be a lot of algo trading, a lot of erroneous moves. So if you're in a position, work it, whatever, but I would highly suggest you stay out of the markets Thursday afternoon and to Friday for one. Right now, I'm watching the interest rate markets. The dollar has been under pressure for most of the beginning of the trading week overnight from Sundays when it first opened up. It tried to have a little bit of strength and then it just kind of wasn't able to happen. And then this morning before the, you know, basically I think around six o'clock, we started to get a little dollar rally. And then as we got closer to the stock market opening, everything started to fizzle out. So, but I'm looking at the bonds and right now they're holding pretty firm about down on one buck right now, one handle. And I think the 10 years down like 17, 16 ticks also. You know, so if that can stay there all day long, remember last week, I think we talked on Wednesday about how I was looking for the bonds to top out around that 136 to 138 area. And they could, they spiked into that area. They fell just a little short of the 138 target. So I, if we could get another rally in the bonds, but I think right now we're seeing that where the interest rates are gonna start to turn back to support. And if they do lay on that all day today, the US dollar, I say, watch out, we have a bear trap here. The bulls are gonna come back very strongly. Yeah, it seems pretty interesting, right? As in even the 10 year, we were approaching 3.5. At one point during my program last week, it was either Thursday or Friday.  And just like that, we're back to 3.2%. And I was just talking about how a program, the rhetoric is almost like, oh, things have eased now, right, rates are pulling back. Maybe it got ahead of each other. And I was like, man, what's, there's no data, basically. Now, yes, we've seen some maybe recessionary data, but there's no data on the inflation front, besides, you know, crude easing, maybe a bit. But we're coming off like a record CPI number, which is pretty amazing when you think about like the talk of maybe we've peaked out. And meanwhile, we just got a CPI number in May that was the record number and March was supposed to be the record, right? So it's kind of interesting, all that rhetoric. And now we come back today though. And yeah, we got the 10 year back to 3.2%. And the market just goes on negative by 15 points right now. Volatility not gone, the point, you know what I mean? As in there's no way that that has to be the end of it when the data basically is still at record territory. And it's not just the futures driving this because the cash bond market's being sold off right now.  It's going to be continued to be sold off. And you have to realize that there's a lot of foreign countries that own our debt. They're selling our debt right now. They got to scramble. They need money. They need things for, you know, they need to balance their own books right now. And as far as right now, it's not that we have dollar strength right now. It's that all these other currencies are weak versus the dollar. So when dollar weakness really starts to stick out and starts to see little flags going over, hey, we actually have dollar weakness, we're going to see the dollar fall really, really hard. You know, and I'm not looking forward to that when that happens. And what would that do to the yen if we see that type of action? We've got the yen at about 135 right now. Oh, we'll see the yen back down around 105 in a heartbeat when the dollar starts to turn. Oh yeah, we're going to see it snap back huge, which means then you think we have inflation now. What happens when our exports start to skyrocket? And we released all the, I mean, it doesn't matter about tariffs anymore. It's just going to matter between the inflation of the cost of goods coming towards us and then the currency conversion. I mean, good luck. I'm telling you right now, start buying your Christmas gifts for not just this year but the next year or two because the average person is going to start to really have to make choices. Well, so real quick back to the letter Teddy, not real quick, but so you put the letter out on Monday, we have the letter out today, the first issue, and you're going to provide updates when warranted. You will provide specific trades when warranted. What kind of trades do you envision? Are you going to be trading forex in there? Are you going to be trading options in there? Is it the whole gambit? What are you going to be talking about? Well, obviously with the letter, I'm going to focus predominantly on the actual forex markets, but I will absolutely put in trades, like if it's especially a 30 year trade or an ML probably have some tenure every once in a while thrown in there. The dollar index, because the dollar index can be traded as well, so I will have certain levels like that. And if I think that there's a signal, especially when you get a lot of times when they start to rack up, where I have them in multiple currency crosses in the dollar index, then I'll lay out a whole bunch of trades where it'll be for forex futures options and binary options too. So especially because it's at the beginning of the week. Awesome. Well, listen, man, we look forward to it. And again, thanks for all this education and doing the letter, and it's a beautiful thing, man. And folks, check it out on the front page of TFNN. You can save 25% still comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. And I know you're going to be talking to my dad this afternoon during the three o'clock hour, and I'll be talking to you Wednesday as well. We'll get double duty. Sounds good. Sounds great. Awesome, Teddy. I appreciate it. Okay, have a great Monday, man. All right.


Hey everybody, welcome to Friday PM. It's Luigi Scarcelli here. We're going to be doing something a little different this weekend. Instead of being in the live in the studio, I'm up here in Bar Harbor, Maine to see the great scenery around me. We're going to be talking to Skip at the Tool Barn. He's a great guy. It's world famous. We're going to be talking to the folks at the Seal Cove Auto Museum. And we're also going to hear some music from Buck Edwards, a great musician. That's back in Portland at Copper Smith. But stick with us. It's going to be a great show. We're happy to have you here. Thanks again. We are very happy to be here at the Seal Cove Auto Museum. Yes. With Ethan Yancurro. Yeah, you're here. Good to see it. Wow. Great to see it. So I was here for a birthday party before. I've blown away. I didn't even notice existed. Seal Cove and it's got cars from everywhere. We're going to be taking a look at a lot of these cars in a minute or two. But we want to kind of learn a little bit more about the history of the place, how it was started, and you seem to be the guy that knows everything about it. I know a few things. Okay. Okay. So where, when did this, you said it 60 years ago? So this 2023 is our 60th anniversary. We were incorporated by our founder, Richard C. Payton Jr. 1960 degree. It was founded as a private foundation. And he was one of those indiscriminate collectors. We really had a focus for them a channel. It was automobiles, the motorcycles, cash registers, big trolleys, cigar store, Indians. There was a little bit of everything in here. It was quite a quite an operation for many years. And he passed away in 2007. There was a decision to be made. I kind of look at it as the story of two museums. There was the museum where Richard could go out and then after his passing, a decision had to be made. And his wishes were that a large number of the automobiles and engines and ephemeral would be sold to create an endowment to help support the collection that you see in the museum today. So he had established this while he was living. And then the museum reformulated and became its own entity and have been doing so since 2008. Okay. And so originally this was, it was a full museum of a lot of things, not just auto, automobile. And so what you're saying is that he sold some of it just to be able to add a really good like markup, I assume. It was actually through an auction at Bonham's, here in the state of Maine. I was always lucky enough to actually be a part of the auction. I had never seen the collection in its entirety as Richard had assembled it. Yeah. But I've seen it, that auction and that that's remained here, but he traded cars. It was a lot of money. So just to delve back to this gentleman, like what year was he born and what was his story a little bit? Oh, the year he was born, I would have heard to say, but he was looked at. But he, yeah, he was a lifelong collector. In fact, what is now a storage facility down the street in about a half a mile, was originally his sob dealership because we're the first, if not the first dealer in sob automobiles in the state of Maine. And they were pretty popular for a long time. You don't see as many sobs anymore, but one time in the 80s and 90s, that was the kind of the hot new car. So he starts it out, it's kind of evolved now. Let's talk a little bit about kind of like what are some of the signature cars? Do you guys focus on cars of different generations? Is it? So the focus of the museum is what's referred to as the brass era of the automobile. And that's roughly 1895 to 1917. And it's really indicating the name itself kind of tells you what what you'll be looking at. But there was a transition in 1916, 1917, where the headlamps and the trim and the horns had been brass. And then they transitioned with a nipple. So you'll often see brass and nipple combined when you're talking about a certain period of odd. But by and large, what you see here in the museum is pre 1917, there are a few examples that deviate from that. The Model A right behind us, one example that falls outside that category. We really like to look at the foundation of the automobile. And more importantly, that's the majority of the vehicles of the museum are American built in the northeast and in the wing. And so a couple of questions on that. Number one, are you guys still acquiring automobiles? Like, yes, we actually in 2022, the museum made the commitment to actually start an endowment fund toward acquisitions. That was that that's that endowment. Okay. And well, we started our own fund. Okay, something that we we took on ourselves. And we felt it was important to be able to acquire vehicles. We actually took in a vehicle on loan this morning 1906 Wayne, which is a beautiful little two place runabout two cylinder horizontally opposed 1906. So you'll see many vehicles are on loan for individuals around the collection. And that was what I was going to ask you was that you're, you know, obviously, not that you wouldn't want to own all these, but a lot of them are on loan from collectors that they like to have just like a museum of art would have a lot of times. Okay, interesting. And we're just kind of in the general viewpoint of cars of that era where these to have a car in those days was very unique, wasn't it? I mean, this was not something everybody had. That's right. And that one of the exhibitions that are limited, we'll see takes a look at a period on mountain driving history that was known as the automobiles. And in the early years of the 20th century, there was actually a ban of automobiles on the island, right? A couple of towns and villages that would allow them. But it was actually something that if you go digging through newspapers across the country, find stories about this, this war, but a small island in Maine was having against the opera. Then that was people that were against this progress or what it was doing, or maybe it was probably had more to do with the roads, maybe the carbon. That was part of it. There was a there was a large influence with the carriage trails and the Canadian National Park, you know, two big things. Presumed and automobiles were big disruptions in the early 20th century. So, I mean, in those days, they probably, I mean, as we all know from like Walden and things, there was environmentalists in those days who probably saw cars as very polluting because they didn't like them. I mean, you could just see what a car would do, especially in those days, probably churn and smoke out everywhere, other than the electric cars that they seem to have in those days. But they probably noise pollution just to the quality of life. They're like, yeah. So that was an auto wars. Is that something that people can look up? So it's probably somewhere on. If it is, and like I said, it's part of the installation installation here this year. So I think we'll be able to see that story along with several others. And so speaking of which, you had a couple of things that you told me about that were coming up the vacation land installations and things just so that we can explain to the viewers who probably will come down here, like what's going on with all of that. Okay. So as part of our 60th anniversary celebration, we decided rather than one large exhibition, we wanted to take a sort of a retrospective look at some of the work that has been presented at the museum before. Auto Wars has each of the exhibitions that we've presented with one exception that have been full-blown, wide installations, and we paired them down and ordered the museum. So you get a little taste of previous exhibitions. Auto Wars is one of them. Another is engines of change, which is the celebration of Centennial of the Nightingale Amendment, which was the ones right to vote. That exhibition was launched in 2020, which coincided with the Centennial of the Nightingale Amendment. But unfortunately, it also coincided with the outbreak of COVID-19. I remember. It was something that might not have gotten as much exposure as it otherwise would have. But it's a great look at how the art of the other, you know, drags transportation played a part in assisting women in spreading the word and getting the vote and earning. We also have art in advertising, which is a look at the early advertising work that went along with the board of their vehicles and the artists who created it. And the final component is the new element is becoming vacation land. In the coming year for 2024, that will become amusing of wide installation. And that will really look at the role that the automobile played in transforming the landscape of Maine and how we became vacation women from the Maine publicity bureau, the Grand Hotels, and then the advent of a motel. As people began traveling on their own in their vehicles rather than before I have any train or stewardship. So it really will dive into how this this landscape of Maine was changed, but also facilitated in becoming more accessible through the use of personal transportation. Well, it's interesting in a couple of ways. I mean, that's kind of like where other parts of the country, maybe the railways, that was integral. And then, you know, but this Maine was really expansive due to I mean, there probably was some train type of things, but but that's not exactly that's what created that was and so was it does it coincide really historically, you know, bit by bit with, you know, automobiles became more affordable, you know, you know, et cetera, et cetera. Prior to the 20th century, most visitors who arrived in Maine, they did come by train. They came by steamship. And we have all of these wonderful stories. The depot, which a lot of people see as it looks like a station wagon and depot and station wagon, those two terms are are integral to each other and they park and back to that period where when you arrived at whatever your destination was by train, that was the depot and the hack was taxing. So the depot hack would take you from the train station to your hotel or whatever your final destination was. And that's became kind of like a prototype to the station wagon. And then the station wagon was took that idea of derivation. Yeah. Instead of the train depot, you have the train station. Right. Right. And that's I mean, it does seem as though if you looked at more of the well to do people that were able to come here in the early, early days, they probably didn't have the big families. You know, the working class folks maybe had the bigger families. How do how do people get here? And that became the onset and were the highways and the new roads, was that all coming along at the same time? That was a big part of it. The foundation of the main publicity girl was hand in hand with the main association and I will spoil the story. Yeah, exactly. But the way they intertwined is it's really fascinating how it was that were the roads in Maine were were really miserable at the moment of the century and there weren't a whole lot of them. So as roads improved, as cars became more affordable and more available, there's there's it's I don't look at it as a chicken or an egg. I look at it as a circle. As one big there are points around this circle that you couldn't have the circle unless they all existed all came together. So if you could tell the audience how how they the dates they can come here, the days or week, how to get here, I was going to say how to get here, but you kind of got to figure it out on your own. I don't know if you could tell them that much. It's not as difficult to get here. Right. It's making out to be short. But you can find directions to the museum on our website, the website, sealcovottomuseum.org. Right here. We are open seven days a week from 10 a.m. 5 p.m. from May 1st until October 31st. Throughout the season we have cars and coffee events on Saturdays. Find all of this information on our website and on our Facebook page. This weekend we have our goodies of wagons, cars, and coffee. So that gives me a chance to break out the Depot Act and talk a little bit about that. Right. So we have our big Carbacue is the name of the event. We'll have three bands, food trucks, part show. It's a great event, fun for the whole family. Definitely something that people will want to miss. So August 5th, 2023, check that out. Like you said, it's August 5th, August 23. And then aren't you doing also the driving the cars around on Tuesday to sell that in the new state? On Mondays, we have Mondays. And between 1 and 2.30 we'd like to pick times 11 and 2 or nice when we have a nice audience at the museum. When it's not raining outside. When it's not raining, I'll take something from the collection that runs. It was raining yesterday, which was a Monday and they actually did the demonstration in the auto workshop. So we're not 100% weather permitting, but we if it's something that we want to drive around, that the weather's good. And that's Mondays. We're going to take a look around and see some more with the Seal Cove Auto Museum. So stick with us. Thanks. So I was wondering, Ethan, do all of the the automobiles here actually run or unfortunately not? But a good number of them do. If you look around you'll see some lights sticking out from underneath the 1914 Stanley Mountain Wagon. There's definitely just a Stanley steam car. It's great to see something under steam operating. But we do have a good number of cars that that actually run. And you probably have something that stands out as like your most unique piece. I think when I was here before, there are some some cars that not only I mean automatically are they really unique. Their history is really unique. And I remember there was one or two of those. And we actually do have a few vehicles that are the definition of we need. They are the only one in the world. And I can think two of those right now that are in running condition. And I always tell people if you ask me what my favorite car is, so it's a little bit like having multiple children and it's the one that you're you're my favorite today. Oh no really he's not my favorite. But it depends on what you're working with and what you're doing research on that everything here is fascinating in its own way. Whether it's historically, mechanically, there's there's something behind just about everything. And that was there any one car that was also I think it was mostly said about women's suffrage. A lot of them they were really tied to that historically. We actually have a vehicle. It's it's a it's a 1916 Saxon that is a representation of a car that was driven by two women, not just across the country, but around the four corners of the country. I think they drove over 10,000 miles, Alice and Nell were their names. And we have a representative Saxon that's painted up to look like their car. It has the stenciling on the doors that show the city of the major cities that they visited. And it's also a great piece in that we can let kids and families get in the car and has their pictures taken with supervision. So it gives people a little bit of a sense, even if it's only for a few moments, what was like to be in one of these cars, let alone for 10,000 miles. And I think the one other question with that for all of the kind of the under the hood junkies out there. Do you guys have guys that fix these here? We do. I mentioned our volunteers. We also have a senior mechanic on staff who is wonderful. He's a he's a great teacher. Okay. Not just a not just a mechanic, but he does a wonderful work and volunteers in shepherding them through the process of working on these vehicles. So it's as much a learning environment as it is a mechanical and shod. Excellent, excellent. Well, I want to thank you very much, Ethan, for taking the time out. We'll be right back after this. One thing stands out as a completely unique experience. Cold 45 malt liquor. Hey, everybody, we're back here at Friday PM. I'm here with Skip, who is the proprietor of the toolbar. Super well known. Hulls Cove. It's been here forever. Any tool you want to find, you can find it here with Skip at the toolbar. This place is great. We're going to be showing some photos and video that we took walking around. I know you're also in Liberty. Yep. Yep. So when did you first kind of establish the tool barn? Well, let me see. We opened the Charles Ford Wood Company in West Charles Ford in 1970. Then about 1974, I bought Liberty tool. And then 1983, I bought this place here West Charles Ford. Okay. 83. 83. So you live here full time in Hulls Cove and you like to live it on the island? Oh, yeah. And so what happens with the other tool barn? Did somebody else run that, too, or that's? Well, in Charles Ford, I ran Charles Ford, and then we opened Liberty in 1974. Then we had helpers down here. So it's been a great business. I'm excited. It's been a fourth year. That's wild. Yeah, I mean, it's shocking how fast time goes by, right? And it's so were you always somebody that loved tools?  Well, I used to be an English teacher. Okay. And I think writing books is my thing. So like what if a buyer or a seller wants to come here to kind of take a look at all the tools? Yeah. Like what do you specialize in certain things or? Of everything. Yeah. Of course, we like woodworking tools. So maybe especially as woodworking tools, special project planes, if you look at me, you see all the planes in the window of the barn. That's part simple. And of course, hasn't it been up here yet? Yep. Yeah, we checked out upstairs. And is some, is it to the point where some people just like, almost like it's a museum in a sense upstairs? I mean, do people vote just to see a lot of stuff? They will. Yeah. Maybe 5% or I think you're hanging on the rules. Yeah. Well, we like our customers who want to use the tool. Sure. And then just for other folks that want to know more about when they can come here, is there, it's, it's, it's open sometimes by appointment? Well, I would say seven days a week, but call ahead during the week. Yes. I'll make sure I'm here. Unless I have to go to the doctor or something, I need seven days a week. You'll come in and open it up and let people take a look around. I'll tell them what to do. Sure. You'll know. See you around, kid. Next time you overeat, take what the guys who overeat for a living take. Alka Seltzer. Here with Skip Brack. And Skip not only has the toolbar, which is like a main establishment. Everybody knows it. And it's also Liberty Tools. Yeah, Liberty Tools. And, but you're also a well-known publisher and writer, written a lot of books over the years. Some of them are about tools, but I think some also are some interesting things that you have some knowledge about like seismology, radiation, things like that. But did you want to talk about some of these tool books that were pretty interesting? Well, let me see. I think my favorite publication of my best, one of my best-selling books is this, a Noron Vigil Reconsidered Molochrum and the Wolling Ought I Asked Were. That's about the Native Americans who lived here. And then French came and the English came and that's what I think. And that's a lot of history in this book. That's super cool. That's just my favorite. Yeah. And if you, if you want to turn the book right to the camera guy, he'll, the front of it, there you go, get a nice shot of it. And so I'm curious about this. Does this, again, is this specialized in your knowledge of tools in the sense that you were talking about what the Native Americans were using for the more, you know, quote-unquote primitive tools to build things? Well, and the interesting thing is, is we're, we're, you know, tribes and things like that. Did they necessarily need as many tools? Because when you're traveling around and you're kind of living off the land, maybe you're less dependent on tools because of the. Well, every community had the specialized tools they needed, what the course of many of them relate to the fishery of the maritime, you know. Just stuff that kept them going. And where a lot of the Native Americans were they, when you say in the maritime where a lot of them trying to always be close to the water, because that's where the fishing was. And it's interesting now, even in modern days, like real estate is always more expensive by the water. I feel like that's just something that's been like that since the beginning, because that's, if you're near the water, it's where, where, you know, at fish and, and, you know, and it's easier to get to irrigating things with the water from it. For example, on Mount Desert Island in several places, you know, French and then the English in the 1750s, maybe some French settlement before that. Okay. And then the Rockefeller came and made the park and it became the playground for the wealthy. And it seemed like it got more relaxed of a place. But now in the past few years, it's become very hoity-toity again. And the time of, I think a lot of people, we talked to the Auto Museum during COVID, I think a lot of people decided they wanted to be, to getting to vacations where they could drive. You know, less people were going to Hawaii or Europe. So they came more to places like Maine and it got very popular here. And it's still pretty popular. And then there's a handbook of iron works. That looks very cool. And this is something that people would be very interested in. They're blacksmiths. That's cool. Glossary, famous metallurgy, iterns. And then this was steel and toolmaking strategies. So this is a lot of history books that are definitely good for the tool buffs. I think I especially could describe the history of toolmaking. History of toolmaking in all of civilization or specifically a lot in America. Wow. Yeah. That is interesting to see how tools have evolved. Yeah. Kind of learn how all of history existed through the existence of tools. Yeah. Archaeology almost in that too. And then this last one here, or you got two more, I think. Yeah. That's very cool. And you can see some of these, a lot of them in the toolbar itself. Yeah. That's very cool. And you can find again on Amazon. Yeah. All of them. And then this last one here was a registry of Maine toolmakers. Yeah. Oh, he was working in 1855 in a trouble. And how did you find, yeah, how, and this was extensive research to see all the toolmakers. And he said in Maine specifically, that's, it's a great history to show. Yep. All of the people from way back when, yeah. That's been my specialty. Your specialty. Well, if you get out to the toolbar and you've got to say hi to Skip and Judy, check this place out this summer. Judith as well. Thank you so much, Skip. It's good to see you, sir. And I'll be back here, but we'll be right back after this break. Thanks a lot. Hello, everybody, Buck T. Edwards here. Great to be talking to you on this fine morning. We've got some wonderful music coming out. I've spent the last six months doing a new album. I got 15 new songs and you're going to hear some of them today. I hope you'll check them out. I'll be playing around Southern Maine all summer. You can go to www.BuckEdwards.com to see my schedule and I hope you enjoy the music and I hope you'll come out and see me this summer. Thank you all and here we go. Hello, everybody. My name is Buck. Thanks for sticking around. I've been working the last six months in a brand new album and we just finished recording this one yesterday. I hope you like it. A little summer song called Summer Looks Good on You. That does look good on you. You can see we've got a beautiful film crew here tonight. Like I said in a brand new album, we're going to try out a few new tunes. I hope you enjoy them. And if you do listen to music somewhere, the name is Buck T. Edwards. And anywhere you stream music, you'll find about 10 albums. Saturday night, drank and bourbon whiskey and it jumps up on the bar. Takes the world and turns it upside down. She'd settle down, be at your town, be in change in her way. I'd be crazy till the end of my day. Hopping jokes at the bar with a sweet scene. I started back to my apartment. But you ain't gone. And that's why Buck always ends his shows by 1130. Danger excites me, but I can't fully enjoy it when I smell like fear and body odor. So I prepare myself with a manly scent of Old Spice Danger Zone. Because even if something bad does happen to a danger zone man, he won't smell like something bad happened. Because the secret is...   Amazing and no. Introducing Old Spice Danger Zone with All Day Odor Protection. Caught in jeep. Can't one after 45. But you did. They say she smiled, but you pulled the hammer back. Guns were filling up back. Man, she loved the cactus and the tumbleweed. And a privilege and a pleasure.  And it's a song about you. About me. Here we go. I wrote a song about you. But you put me. This is it. The 1970 455 cube V8 engine standard. Order it with the new W25 package and you get it all. Fiberglass hood with air grabbing scoops. Brow-wide wheels. Bucket seats. Burst shifter. Dural exhaust. It'd be nice if you had a 442. Escape from the ordinary. It's our show folks. I want to thank Skip at the Tool Barn. As well as Buck Edwards and the folks at the Seal Cove Auto Museum. Have a great weekend. Thanks a lot. We'll see you next week.


past two days all of a sudden her foot caught on something and she tripped falling on her face cursing to herself she pushed herself up and looked at what she tripped on it was a sword but not just a regular sword the hilt and the sheath were both split into black and white gingerly picking it up she grabbed the hilt and drew the sword a few inches the blade was barbed and also split into black and white a masculine voice resounded in her head hmm where am i who the fuck are you the girl yelped and dropped it a talking sword she exclaimed don't drop me whoever you are i need to be near you to see her here but him being rude my name is igoon the end and that is the finale of neither gods nor masters and christ almighty that was that was bad like if i had not already read through this in the past couple of days before getting to this i would have cringed through the floor like i had to get all my previous cringe out of me before i could share this with the world and even with that just knowing that other people are going to not only see this but they're going to know that i'm the one that made it oof that's that is a lot to deal with it's pretty clearly self-insert and in a lot of ways it's wish fulfillment but i didn't really think of it that way at the time because well james diraiu had just such a awful horrible horrible suffering life that i would never ever want to be him in any way and at the same time it's not like anything really goes great for him over the course of the story he's just like a crazy badass who can fight really well that's that's about the only wish fulfillment thing there was there you know it's not like even though like i said it kind of accidentally creates a harem what with fear and lori and lilyth and igoon you could throw in there and well yeah i think i think that's about it but you know four is enough for a harem but yeah even though i kind of accidentally wound up creating that it doesn't really play that bigger role in the story or any role in the story because there's no romance or sex at all there are probably a few points where i could have done that but i chose not to i cut out the worst of just everything that was in there and again i just really want to reiterate i am sorry for putting all of the rape and suicide stuff in there none of that was handled well and it's it's genuinely just gross to to read about now that i'm older and wiser but you know it is there and i you guys didn't really hear it here but the violence in this is also really really bad and it involves people getting cut in half there are heads that are going away people get burned alive just it's awful and i will uh somewhat defend that one because i am of the opinion that if you show violence you should also show the consequences of that violence like you know there's a lot of movies where people like get shot and there's no blood but they still fall down and die and i i feel like you should actually show the consequence of that you should show the blood and the gore and such because it's supposed to be kind of horrifying and yeah that's that's what violence is like in real life so i'm not saying i was trying to make any sort of statement with this because that's certainly not what i was doing at the time i just wanted to make something super dark but looking back yeah i will defend that the pros obviously is just it's it's awful there's spelling errors and such and even leaving that out there's just so many words that get repeated over and over again and so many lines that are just really really cringe so many lines that are meant to be funny but just fail completely it's it's awful it's it's so awful but again i was like 15 when i started it and i think over the course of the story you can see improve if nothing else but despite all of that despite how awful how cringy this is i did finish it you know it's a little bit under 80 000 words long and i wrote the whole thing i sat my ass down and i made myself crank out a chapter every week even though i took a break in the middle for nano rimo but that one i think was only like 40 something thousand so i i guess i technically didn't win that but you know i did finish the story whatever whatever the point is that this one i did finish it like think about how many stories you see on fiction press and on wattpad and stuff where people start off and they start off they clearly have a lot of passion for it even if they aren't skilled very much which usually they aren't but you know they're teenagers they're they're not supposed to be this is evidence of that but yeah there's so many where you start off really strong for a couple of chapters and then just stops and it never updates and well that's disappointing when you read it but it's also disappointing on the level of like oh this person couldn't motivate themselves to do better like you know we we all can do better we all can write if you can write at all you can write a book it's just really difficult and takes a lot of time and effort and i finished this one and as bad as this is no one can take that away from me it's kind of like what i said back when i did that reading through wattpad stories like over a year ago and actually in that i did link to my fiction press account which has the story on it so you know a couple of people must have read at least part of it before i brought this up but but anyways like i said in that one if you're putting yourself out there then you deserve at least some praise you know even if the story you're writing is super cringy and stupid by my standards i can't be that harsh on people because it's just younger teenagers and kids that are putting themselves out there and they're creating something you know think about how many people just go through life never making something so yeah i don't think most of them are as bad as this one is but like i said there congratulations just on getting things out there and if you finished double congratulations so uh yeah this is i think that's about all i have to say about neither gods nor masters it was utter shit back when i wrote it but i was proud of it then and nowadays it's even shittier but i am still kind of proud of it so yeah that's all


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