The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Okay looking good feeling good Lewis welcome to the offices of Duke and Duke 100 South Broad Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 1 9 1 4 7 sorry to hear that mr. Oh my goodness I can't believe that I've lost such an incredible football coach I mean it's just amazing the Miami Dolphins folks Diane Shula passed away yesterday at the age of 90 He was a perfect model for everyone folks. He was a good man in every single respect He was a great coach great father And he was just really really a wonderful human being got to meet him one time Anyway, let's move on here and I have an announcement to make today We're going to have dr. David Paul is going to be our guest at 9 30 and also folks on Mark your calendars on June 13th I am going to be doing a webinar for the money show used to be on the money show Every year for about 15 years and I quit doing it because I don't like to travel too much for just two days So I don't really do it much. Well, I don't do it anymore And I would like to mention that the money show started back in 99 folks in California Two of my students Jim Sugarman and Tim Berkman Jim was a He was a he was a marketing guy for a Software company and Tim was a sergeant in the Los Angeles police and they had been my students and they decided to do a Money show type thing in California in a little city outside of California out by Bakers not by Bakersfield out by Claremont and so I went there and They said would you you know be one of our speakers and I said sure I said, what are we doing? So we're gonna have some people there and you know would like to have you give us a talk We'll give you an hour and I said, okay great. I'll come over and so I go over and I'm wearing a polo shirt and Bermuda shorts I think it's gonna be like 20 or 30 people There were there were thousands of people there and CNBC Had had just started. Yeah, they had just started I believe they had someone there and Bloomberg had someone there And they interviewed me and of course luckily they only did a Upper shot that didn't see that I was wearing a Bermuda shorts, but from that that's what happened and then then what's really interesting The reason I'm bringing this to your attention to show you how this thing grew in Remember at 9 11 that was in 01 right well in February of 02 that was the big show the February show in New York at the marquee marquee The marquee in Times Square Marriott marquee now that was the big show and what happened was because it was all you know so very close to Ground zero that the money show and also the hotel Gave Jim and Tim the option of not to doing the show So they wouldn't lose any money because it was such a gonna be such a you know probably poorly done and Jim and Tim said no We're gonna roll the dice. We think we're gonna get a lot of support And folks you wouldn't believe it you couldn't you couldn't fall down in the place It was that crowded it was there where I met Tom O'Brien And so that's a all long time long long time ago. Holy cow Okay All right, let's move on here and get to the market as you can see Okay I have to tell you another story someone's saying here when black ties optional always go with the tucks that way you're you're never underdressed This was about oh 1990 1994 I was a black tie 1994 I was Going to China to speak in 1995 I was going to China to speak for the first time and I went through Thailand because I had been have had trouble with My TMJ my jaws were just locking up on me. It was really bad. I tried everything And one of my friends said go over there to what pole where the blind masseuses are and they'll you know work on you And in a matter of time you're you're gonna be fine. I did that for three days I mean I've never it's never bothered me since it was the most amazing thing So but while I was there one of our friends here Kelly in Virginia They were friends of the royal family and they it was it was New Year's Eve And I was invited to a New Year's Eve party and they said oh, it's very casual You know, this is this is Thailand. So we're very casual So I show up and I'm just wearing a little sports shirt colorful sports shirt Tommy Mahoma and slacks and everybody's black tie and Well, anyway, it was really great worked out fine. So I'm always underdressed. I guess so we'll see let's get to the markets As you can see I posted a chart for the Dax you notice It's just made a 382 retracement The move down the big move down now we've exceeded that 382 retracement in the S&P and also in the In the Dow Jones both of those have already exceeded that retracement But if you look here at what we're watching here now in the footsie, you'll so this is the one we looked at yesterday You know, this has worked out pretty nicely that ABCD pattern had a little bit of a pullback So at least it started in the right direction That's about all you can do when you're doing these patterns folks is to you know They are predictable within limits and the key word there is limits because it's nothing hundred percent All you're looking at is something that repeats over and over again and it is repeatable to some percentage of In your favor in other words better than 50% And but it does give you a place to you know, put your stops in and to see where you're going to be is as far as looking at Longer or short All right, let's move on by the way I want to mention also that tomorrow will be norm winsky and then on Thursday, we're going to have Andrew Piccoli and then we're also going to have Bill Chapman from trade trend trend view will be with us on Friday So we got a nice group of guests this week to help us through the meander through these markets maybe they'll give us some pretty good ideas of Looking at what we're looking at someone asked a question about Tim boss prediction as you recall he was saying that on May 11th the SNP should be around in just a little under 2700 and we're at 2860 or something like that now So it's gonna be interesting to see what we have Tim on the him on the line We'll have to take our barbecue colds with us to give him a little a little royal punting if he's wrong because You guys do it to me all the time. So we'll do it to everybody else Hey folks, everybody's wrong all the time, you know, this thing is you're not going to be right every time But you can be right all the time and still be right once in a while And that's the key to what you're looking at here. So let's remember that very very important. All right There's a question about the gold market, but before we get that I must bring it to your attention this one right here, this is the Treasury bond it's a 30-year Treasury bond over the past three weeks We have completed a Gartley pattern folks right down here at 179 Remember that level up here at one one eighty three oh four folks. That's the 78% level We've hit that level so many times over the past weeks and months that it is tremendous resistance This is going to be a very important day today because if we close below 179 This is telling us that this market is failing and we're getting ready to have a much much larger move to the downside That's the that when you look at the charts that way. That's what you think you'd be looking at Take a look at this longer-term picture If you're not currently using the TAS profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities Then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon the TAS profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve doll TAS Understands that in today's technological world the use of top-flight software Applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market You also gain access to the webinar that Steve doll and Tom O'Brien just hosted the best way to use the TAS profile scanner to profit This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up all new subscriptions Also come with a 30 day money back guarantee. 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That's 727 329 83 22 call us today tfnn is launching an open house for our tiger's den for a limited time You can get a 30 day free trial to the tiger's den Just enter promo code open at checkout and pay nothing for 30 days while you try out your tiger's den membership as part of our Open house with market volatility at an all-time high and people all over the world working from home If possible tfnn is hosting an open house in our tiger's den the tiger's den is an interactive chat room That runs all day where other tigers and tiger's discuss trading ideas with the hosts and members Along with charts and current market news as well as live access to the charts the hosts use during their programs Join us for the tiger's den open house begin your den membership today by just entering open at checkout And pay nothing while you try things out for 30 days for all the details and to start your den membership today Visit the front page of tfnn.com Don't miss out on the tfnn tiger's den open house taking place now sign up today Okay from new jersey we have a victor on the line victor. How are you doing? Good good good. Hey, what is he? I saw it at bradley mall and it said may 11th. It's a high For 2020 it's conflicting what that guy that was on that radio. Yeah The bradley model is basically good for dates I mean it does predict the trend to some extent and it could it could invert at that time In other words, if it's going down into may 11th, it could still be a good bradley date And that's one of the problems that we have is we have so much conflicting information that you mentioned You have to decide what is good and that's why I look at the bar charts and try to give me what the pattern is showing I think the government is buying everything. I don't care what you say You can do anything you want the government buys one day one day it doesn't buy And I just oiled the Rockefeller's controlled oil and they did this all on purpose And they're going to drive the price of oil up. That's the only thing they got it's food Oil and religion. That's what we fight all wars about Mm-hmm I have to agree with you on the government. They seem to be everywhere. Have you got your check? They're buying up this market. There's no volume in it every time it goes down. They're in there And it's going to end badly. I think it's going to end real badly Well, we'll see did you get your check yet from the government? Have you spent it? No, I didn't I didn't No, no news is good news And I listen where do you think oil is going? I think the Rockefeller's controlled oil and I think That's the only thing the only game we got to play is drive up prices. You know what I mean? They did that on purpose so they would Drive the price of oil up and now you know what I mean? Where do you think oil is going? $50 all the way? Durning is it coming out? Where do you think that's going? I have no idea victor I just look at the charts my my guess is it'll probably be in a good trading range You know, I don't think it's going to go below 30 minus 37 again, but we'll have to wait and see When you think the next war is Coming up. I think we're in one. I think we I think it started with this This coronavirus this is a different type of war fake. It's bill gates. You want to put a chip in you're in control Yeah, you gotta get rid of bill gates Okay, if you do some research on him, he's a terrible guy that foundation he has he should be put in jail And I got four seats. He's been in charge of that and I see for 30 years He should be gone too. He's a career. He's like a politician who takes payoffs I got four seats. Okay. Well, listen, thanks for joining us and I want you to keep that positive out keep that positive outlook. Okay All right, hopefully bill gates dies tomorrow Well, I don't want to wish that on anybody Oh dear, let's uh Let's move on to the next one here. Uh folks, let's take a quick look here at the uh euro I posted the chart of the euro in here and as you can see here Uh, we made a 61 percent retracement at the 110 level and I spent a lot of time on the newsletter describing that that was most probably going to be the sign that we're going to have a correction because the Reverse of this chart, which is the dollar index and I think we need to look at that you'll see that it was making a double bottom and uh at major support and we already talked about this on yesterday's show The fact that the number seven up six down seven up six down was working And that's exactly what we had here and we've had a really strong two-day rally now In the dollar index and it could get up to this 100.20 level I don't know where it is right now, but that's the part that I'm looking at and I'm seeing if the euro can get down To 10850 and that will be an important place to look at it So we'll watch to see if these outlines, you know come up the way they have to look at this Okay Uh, okay Okay, all right. Thank you Tommy for the the information. I appreciate very much We appreciate all your calls coming in folks and if you have an opinion, please give us a call<PHONE_NUMBER> However, don't try to call right now because the lines are just absolutely lit up Al said he was just overwhelmed with the boards We'll have to do it at another time, but one was able to get through one was able to get through Michael from Niagara Falls, Canada. I think Mike, how you doing? I'm on the Ontario side. Yeah Yes, sir. I know you are and you want to look at X O P with that theme of Rockefeller and oil Could you take a look at the X O P? I certainly will and here again, you're going to be see a market. It's just completed An abcd pattern at the 382. It's the second one that we've had here We had one back in january and we just had another one right here So it appears this should be coming under a little pressure here In the next few days and weeks would be my guess And and if say you're wrong, what's the upside target? Well, if if we're wrong, the first upside target would be $70 that would be up $18 and where we are right now if if i'm wrong on that Okay, okay. Well $70 $70 is what i'd be looking at if it breaks through that 55 level You'll be looking around $70 which would be the 61% retracement of that move from january It would also be a 382 retracement from the all-time high You know from last year in may so that would be that was at 130 So this market's gotten hit really bad from 130 to 30 that they've really beaten up pretty badly Yeah, okay, so 70 70 is the upside 70 would be the upside if if it gets above 56 you bet Okay, you bet. All right, let's move on to the next one here. We talked about that Dollar index. We talked about the euro That's very very important Now I want to show you something that's going to be happening here It most of you folks are not involved in this but I think it's something relatively important to talk about And uh Shane on the line Larry can you hear me? Yeah, hey, how you doing chief? What can I do for you? Good morning? I thought I would just call this seems to be the uh the caller day of the week So I was gonna call it on Tuesday. You were lucky to get in. What can I do for you my friend? I just wanted to uh make a comment about the fmp for your for your viewers that um The fed juice is is very very strong right now still But I think we'll probably be coming into a high either later today or tomorrow. There's a gap in there on the fmp Uh, right around that 2902 level. I think that's going to fill even today or tomorrow and then Um, probably we might see it. We might see a short term high here today or tomorrow I think it's going to go through to tomorrow my guess is but today technically without counter speed It's a high today. So But you guys know that Well, thank you very much and I and thanks for letting me know about don shula because I Always a big fan of his and uh Oh, yeah, he was the best but but he let he led a great life. So You're following in his footsteps my young friend because you you're a great role model. Keep it up. Okay Thanks, Larry. All right. Have a great morning everybody You bet Chains million folks. All right now the next discharge that I'm going to bring up now I'd like for you to see this is bitcoin folks and something interesting is going to happen here in 10 days In bitcoin by the way today is Cinco de Mayo folks Mexican independence here Being 72 miles from the mexican border. It used to be a big holiday, but not anymore I want you to look at the uh, go back to 2012 and look at the little box down there at 2012 And then I want you to look at the little box at 2016 Okay, that little box is going to happen on the 15th of may in about 10 days That is a halving. That's where I don't know exactly what it means But it means that the number of bitcoins that are out there are going to be halved and notice every time we've had a halving event Look what's happened to the price It's exploded to the upside And look at the price that we have in bitcoin now And this is a monthly chart folks And so this is this a very very bullish chart. Stay tuned folks We're gonna have dr. David paul here from vector vest 8 7 7 9 2 7 6 6 4 8 Larry pesavento watches the market's 24 7 and now is a great time to try out his daily trading service Fibonacci 24 7 Larry publishes videos and charts for subscribers throughout the week when warranted and every weekend He puts out a thorough report covering worldwide markets futures commodities and currencies with Fibonacci Retracement levels possible trading setups and zones and stops and targets for all recommendations included Larry applies the principles He's developed over decades of trading while analyzing a variety of markets for subscribers To see for yourself the types of videos charts and analysis that Larry provides for his subscribers Sign up for Fibonacci 24 7 today by visiting the front page of tfnn.com Under the newsletter tab you'll also gain instant access to Larry's archive subscriber webinar from earlier this year New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee. 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Yes Say listen, I wanted to congratulate Vector Vest on The way they handled this market I thought they did a tremendous job of protecting their friends and customers and they gave them some pretty good advice So my hat's off to you my friend. What do you have for us today, David? Okay, Larry. Well, can you see my slides in the background or can I'll see the slides there? Yes, sir. We've got it going a nice blue background tfnn may 5th. Okay, you're online We certainly called it. Well, Larry, that's for sure Very very pleased with it. That's the spx and The red and the green triangles represent a mechanical medium term market timing system And as you can see, there was a green triangle last October A red triangle which didn't last very long and then we had that false run up And then in February a very good signal a mechanical Objective signal to actually sell the market and we were out of all that mass on the downside And then this medium term market timing system In fact gave a signal to buy the market on the 6th of April and I'm still holding long positions. I'll show you the positions in a second based on that mechanical medium term market timing system that we refer to as the de w Now, I'm sure your keen eye will have seen the spx moving up in three drives And I'm sure your keen eye will have pointed out the 62 percent retracement that it came off so I'm still holding my long position, but I've managed to take some shorts in the market based on Shorter term time frames. So where are we? Well, uh, it Ralph Elliott couldn't have called it better Larry because we had uh, five waves up And then in the last wave, this is an early chart. There's a beautiful five wave pattern within that So this is the nirvana of Elliott wave people in that It is a fifth of a fifth And the dumb thing came off and as I'm quite sure you noticed yesterday. It stopped at a 62 78% retracement to the tech. It's now moving its way back up again So I would expect I think I've got a slide of where it was a few minutes ago It's moving up again in five waves. I would expect it. It's open going to open up today I would expect it to get up Another few ticks this afternoon to make that 62 percent retracement. I still think there's probably a little bit more downside But our objective mechanical method is still saying That that medium term trend is still up. I think the market will make a decision for us my own view If you go back to the first chart Larry my own view is that Again in terms of Elliott those of you that know anything about Elliott I think the first thing you got to realize is the first 25 years is the worst after that it gets easier, but I think 25 might be on the low side. Yeah, have you read t. Hamilton Bolton's work 25 years is on the low side I reckon that's a larry and we're coming back To a b and that we've got to run up here Into sea and I think that that can quite easily take us Into october sir So, uh, that's that's the model that I'm playing on although I am Doing my best to trade the market and not trade the darn forecast. Uh, so I I want now to To look at what I've been doing myself. I put together a very simple unoptimized search on vector vest to look for Shares that are in the s and p 500 because my broker in london larry doesn't make a market outside the s and p 500 shares So it's it that's for me Now vector vest have a method of measuring the trend which is quite unique. It's called the comfort index and it measures Uh, the strength of the trend It measures the volatility of the price action and it measures the fundamentals If the trend is strong and getting stronger with level volatility and the fundamentals of the share are improving Then that scores well on the comfort index and I think you would agree if you've got a share That's trending with little volatility and the company's fundamentals are getting better. That should offer you some comfort Uh, it's quite unique And so I'm looking for a comfort index on a scale between zero and two of above 1.2 Which is a reasonable trend And that finds a lot of shares And then I'm sorting those shares by a mixture of the comfort index, which is the long-term trend Multiplied by g r t, which is the growth rate of earnings so The vector vest edge is to try and put the best of both worlds together To find shares that are in the throes of a strong technical position and marry those that are in the throes of a strong fundamental Position and that's what i'm trying to do. So The medium-term market timing model Gave us a buy signal on the 6th of april So I ran that search on the 6th of april myself Those are the shares that came out of it larry amd charter com newmont, etc Those shares have got the best combination of long-term trend and fund and growth fundamentals on the smp 500 and I bought them and I bought the top five on the spread bets here in london and That's what they've done to date Wow, they they are up 11 percent and the markets up 7.88 percent now on vector vest We have lots and lots and lots of really really complicated searches I have a phd in mathematics as I've bored you with before and I firmly believe that the the simpler the work The more robust it is. It's so easy to get into a curve fitting exercise where you fit exactly the past And you'll find from i find from bitter experience that that produces a bloody awful fit to the future. So It's a very simple search It marries fundamentals and technicals together and it's been working for me and working for my son. In fact, he runs a small fund exceptionally wealth so as long as the uh medium term market timing model is still up Then uh, we would be holding those shares. Uh, if the medium term market timing model prints one of those red triangles And there's absolutely no uh, subjective input there when it prints a red triangle We are simply as they say here in london. We run for cover, sir. Uh, so My son in johannesburg is not allowed to hold outright positions So he buys uh The top five stocks And he shorts the overall market try to make the bit in between Because the the risk manager will not allow him to hold an outright position So he's trying to make the difference between the 11 and the 7.88 percent. So he's running a long short book Based on this. I'm running an outright book But the risk manager down there won't allow him to do that. He says it's too risky, especially over the weekends So, uh, I think that we've probably got a little bit more downside to go Uh, I think that the s and p will probably stop at 62 percent of the run up from the low Monday a month ago Can you stay with us david? We got another segment coming, please. Yeah, sure man. We'll be right back folks David paul vector vest If you're in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. Petersburg, florida The tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no Tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. 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If you'd like more information about the tiger first mortgage program, you can call me at<PHONE_NUMBER> That's<PHONE_NUMBER> The gold market has taken off top side in a large way in 2020 If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report took profits in four of its equities in the gold portfolio in the first week of january for a combined profit of 99.2 percent with two positions left in the portfolio that have a profit of 67.5 percent as of january 7th The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every monday morning I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xa u hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To seep yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report Sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today Fill the s and p 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spx s Directions daily s and p 500 bull and bear leveraged etfs Direction leveraged etfs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call eight six six four seven six seven five two three Or visit direction investments.com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc The bull bear trading hour with tom and tommy o brian next We're back folks. We're talking with dr. David paul David we have a question from one of our listeners and that is does vest vector vest work in the options market also Yes, larry it does work in the options market and we have a Very strong options training program at vector vest I am I am not an options trader myself And I run vector vest uk and in the uk the options market Is not liquid at the retail level Whereas in the us it's clearly exceptionally liquid. So at vector vest, we have a very strong Options program. We've got two courses on options. Uh, what's called the options jump starter and then a Very long and detailed course in how to actually use the options market to bring in income And we have a very experienced options trader who takes that, uh, very experienced indeed Although I personally do not trade options. I'm uh, a swing trader over Three to 13 days, hopefully I do a bit of intraday trading as well, but uh Only when I feel like it and my biggest edge in intraday trading is that I know when I don't feel like it and I don't bother That's good Say David, could could you do me a favor and send me the link? Uh, so that I could someone's asked me about options And I'd like to send that link on to them about vector vest option program Their training program and stuff that would be great. It's uh, just drop me a That would be super few just dropping into skype or something for me I certainly will and uh for that young man who asked that question We'll be having an annual financial freedom summit at vector vest for three days and If you go to vector vest.com forward slash summit folks, uh, you can pick out of that What you're interested in and there's certainly many many presentations on the options market within that so The options market's a big big big part of vector vest in the us Not nearly as big a part in the uk because uh, uk people don't have the ability to actually uh, trade options Without actually open up a usa account. Uh, so Uh, so there's there used to be a strong options market in the uk larry, but when spread betting arrived, uh, 10 or 15 years ago spread betting here is tax free. Uh, so The the volume uh moved uh to uh spread betting Spread betting is pretty much a swing trading. Uh, it it's just got it just means that you don't have to pay tax On the profit you really have to you don't even have to put the profits into your annual tax return Which is quite an advantage Yeah, we don't have that advantage here. That's for sure Yeah The uk government says that you either pay the tax upfront on a bet or you pay the tax on the winnings So, uh, there's a little bit of tax in the spread Uh, so they get their money, uh on the upfront on the spread. Yeah David we have another question for someone and that is you worked with tom hugard and made a big impact impact on his life What would you recommend is reading material or studying material to try to get the psychological demons off of your You know your gray matter to you know to trade free and without fear and stuff like that Do you have books that you that you really recommend? Yes, of course, and uh tolman i worked together and we still work together very closely. He's my dear's friend Uh, and he certainly has made a big impact in my life as well. Uh, so uh, I think that uh, uh, I I did uh, quite a few a lot of courses at the Institutional level and people used to laugh at me because I in fact used to hand out a book on uh, what I suppose is spirituality in that I find that People keep asking me. What's the what's the characteristic of a winning trader? And a winning trader is a very present person in my opinion They don't allow their mind the luxury of moving to the past. They don't allow their mind the luxury Are moving to the future they focus on perfect execution of this one trade so if I could Ask anyone to try and read a book that will help them straight away It would be a a little book by a gentleman by the name of akkar tall It's called practicing the power of now and it'll show you how to focus your mind on the present moment And to hang out in the present. I think that uh, uh, there's a little book by a chap that I think you know, uh, eddie topple Uh called zen eddie topple. Yeah. Yeah fast eddie. I met him a couple of times. He's dead He died of a heart attack and uh, he sure did instantly. He didn't even get to finish his sins Yeah, he was a good man and uh, he's written a little book called zen in the markets, which Is a very simple little book you can read it in 20 minutes But it contains a great deal of wisdom on how to actually, uh Put try and wrestle the ego And of course, I think that everybody should read uh, mark douglas book trading in the zone and read it over and over and over again I remember on a flight to copenhagen once with tom He had in fact, he was in fact making notes out of the book on the journey to copenhagen So, uh, he takes I take that very seriously. It travels with me everywhere. Uh, so, uh Being able to Keep your head when everybody else is losing theirs as kippling said or poorly quoted from kippling Is the trick of the exercise I can If I took everybody listening and I took them on to a firing range I could give them a rifle. I could show them how to clean it. I could show them how to hold it I could show them how to breathe And uh, within a couple of hours I could have them hitting the target nine times out of 10 My question to them is it could they hit the target if some other sword was shooting back at them? And that's exactly what happens when the little bar is bouncing up and down It can make the sanest of people do the dumbest of things. It takes you out of the moment completely. So Anything that you can do, uh, to focus your mind on the present moment will help you immensely in trading And uh, I found at that little book, uh, practicing there's a book called the power of now, uh, which uh, oprah In fact put on the map with ecart tool, but it's quite a difficult read So I would start off with practicing the power of now, which is a workshop version of the bigger book And it will help you in any facet of life You know, if you're in a corporation, uh, your boss is paying you largely to focus to keep your head to sort out trouble When everybody else is running around like the proverbial headless chicken So, uh, even if you're working for somebody else, uh, presence will allow you to move through the, um Organization, I know quite a few professional golfers quite well. No Ernie else in South Africa quite well and, uh, Their edge is that they focus on perfect execution of each every stroke Not the last one not the next one, but perfect execution of this Particular stroke if they screw up at the fourth the average golfer will have that in their mind forever Screwing up at the fourth or as uh, the professional forgets about it goes on and plays The next whole, um, as if it never happened, uh So Anything on presence, uh, will help you immensely in my humble opinion David, thank you so much for joining us. We're going to have you Again soon and please Stay safe over there. I know there's a lot of different People have different theories of what's going on. So make sure you, uh, You know, do the things as necessary where your mask and social distancing I'm sure you do all those things and be safe my friend because uh, thank you very much Yeah, we're valuable. Yes, and a good friend. So please stay with us. Okay Thank you larry. Thanks everyone. Okay, you bet. David paul of vector vest 8 7 7 9 2 7 6 6 4 8 I I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money Let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done Which is how to time the markets I'm steve rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months Timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals Which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 Six and three months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well The fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that is Transforming into one of the best at what I do Sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the home page of tf and n dot com And get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step How to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today If you haven't checked out the newsletters page of tf and n dot com What are you waiting for all of the tf and n newsletters are informative up to date Affordable and a must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive Informational edge in today's markets tf and n newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news Plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days From all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech There's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from tf and n Stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game Visit our newsletters page by going to tf and n dot com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tf and n dot com educating investors Markets trading with extreme volatility and peaks and troughs everywhere regardless of what you're looking at in the markets This is a great time to see the type of analysis Basil Chapman delivers for his subscribers every market day with the opening call newsletter Basil has been analyzing markets providing his take for subscribers to his trading services since 1984 Every morning basil publishes an update for his subscribers along with weekend and evening updates when warranted The opening call provides traders a daily market overview with regard to the direction of the key indices selective stocks and commodities along with specific recommendations including stops and targets You also gain instant access to basil's subscriber webinar archive from earlier this year A dark cloud cover an essential market analysis ride the Chapman wave today by signing up for the opening call newsletter On the front page of tf and n dot com under the newsletter tab new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk sign up today This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tf and n dot com Okay, folks. I've just been alerted yesterday. The shane told us that the new york fed was now Actively buying early in early may they're going to be buying etf's And i'm sure they're going to put that in their investment portfolio What I think is nice is the fact that they alerted us to the fact that they're going to be buying How nice it is now mr. Buffett did not do that he got out of his Airline stocks and then told us well the new york fed is doing something different They're telling us that they're going to be buying the etfs. Well, that's a really good nice of them That's what we like the government. They're always giving us good information folks Someone mentioned the fact that bill meridian said there was going to be a low in gold around the first week of may And here we are and we do have a little low down there at 1696 If I saw anything that would even resemble open interest coming into this market I'd be buying gold but by golly. It just doesn't look like that right now I will maintain that short position that we have from 1762. We do have a buy stop at 1730 if we get above there I'm going to have to get bullish folks and I'll have to wait and see right now. We're around 1706 so we'll be able to To be watching it. We have a key date coming up here on thursday That's when we have andy coming in i've made a notation of that andy picoli is going to be back from the uk He's in the uk and he's going to be talking to us about his cycle work Which is really predictive stuff, which is not similar to what they had in the cycles program last saturday It's going to be quite interesting because it's related to the market stuff And I think that's what we really like to look at also We want to take a look here today folks at the long-term picture here in the crude oil This is the june crude oil contract and we are approaching the 78 percent level up around 24 bucks folks We hit 23 and changed just a little while ago And so it's got a chance to get up there to that make a go go even higher for sure But that's the the first big abcd we've had in this in in weeks So if you believe anything about the gartley you want to keep an eye on it To see if that's going to mean anything we got the s and p is up 51 The nasdaq's up 150 boy things are great in river city today folks It looks at least that the virus is going to be beaten down by the financial markets


So, okay, it's time to start our afternoon session. And our speaker is Mr. Balainen, with his talk, Random Work and Random Environment and the KPC class. Thanks very much. And yeah, thanks again to the organizers for this great event. So this talk is coming slightly off the field, right? It's from the area of motion in a random medium where one of our, the benchmark models that have been studied for a few decades is this RWRE model, Random Work and Random Environment. And in recent years, this class of models has been linked with the KPC class that Jeremy began to discuss yesterday. So let me begin by giving brief statements of the theme of this talk, mainly to the experts. And then I'll back up and go to square one and start with definitions. So what this talk is about, it's about one plus one dimensional, yes, yeah. So one plus one dimensional directed random walks in correlated random environments that manifest KPC behavior rather than the typical diffusive behavior of random walks. So there are two examples or two sources. So the first one is limits of one plus one dimensional directed polymer measures. So limits of a quenched directed polymer. And the example, that exactly solvable example here is the log gamma polymer. And this piece of work is in a joint paper with my ex-student Nikos Georgiu from Sussex and Firas Rasul Aga from down the street from Salt Lake City. And then Atilla Ilmas from Istanbul and it's an AOP paper from 2015. And then the second case is one where you take nearest neighbor directed RWRE in an IID environment. So RWRE in an IID environment, but then you condition it to go off to infinity at an atypical velocity. So that's a singular conditioning. So the conditioning has to be done in the sense of dub. So conditioned on an atypical velocity. And this is ongoing, not yet published work with Marci Balas from Bristol and Firas Rasul Aga again. And hopefully we'll get this out in the next few months. So what is important in both cases is the expectation of universality. So Jeremy touched upon this yesterday a little bit. So in both cases, I think it's reasonable to expect that the results would be valid very, very broadly subject to some assumptions on weights on moments and maybe decay of correlations. But as it's the case for much of this KPC class, the only existing results are for exactly solvable cases. So I won't be able to cover both of these two topics in this talk. So today I am going to talk about this one. And here the exactly solvable example is the beta RWRE. All right, so that's where we're headed. So I hope to describe some of the results for this beta RWRE that show how this atypical velocity conditioning puts it into a situation where it seems to be exhibiting KPC behavior. But now let me start from the very beginning and just tell you what RWR is for starters. So let's talk about RWRE, Random Walk in Random Environment on ZD. So the ingredients of this model are the following. We have a space of environments. Let me call it capital omega. And I'll denote those environments by lowercase omega. And on this omega space, there's a probability measure. And in this random medium business, there's always several probability measures floating around. So one has to be precise about the notation. So this environment probability measure will be this blackboard bolt P. And there's a group action on omega. And we'll assume that this P is always at least ergodic under some group of bijections, T sub X, where X ranges over that lattice. So that's the background situation. An ergodic group action on a probability space. And then each of these environments omega drives a Markov chain on ZD. So there's a function. So there's a function that takes omega into a transition probability matrix. And I'll denote that by pi. And I'll put the omega upstairs. So pi of omega is a transition probability matrix on the lattice. So the matrix elements are pi sub X, Y. And the assumption is that this transition probability matrix respects these translations here. So the assumption is that if you shift the environment, then that's the same as translating or shifting the lattice arguments. So if I look at a shifted environment, Tz of omega, and the probability of jumping from X to Y, then that's the same as under the original environment jumping from X plus Z to Y plus Z. So there's that structure. And then some notation. I'll write P super omega sub X for the path measure of the walk or the Markov chain on ZD that's obeying the transitions specified by omega. So this is the so-called quenched path measure on the path space. So the path space is the space of ZD valued paths in indexed by non-negative integers. So P super omega X satisfies the obvious properties, right, that at time 0 the walk. So the walk is the capital X. Capital X dot, this is the walk on ZD. So at time 0 the initial state is X. And then to go forward in time, we multiply transition probabilities, just the good old Markov chain recipe, nothing more. So I write, say, that the path probability that you go from X to X1 and to X2, et cetera, Xn. This is then just a product of, let me call that X0. So then this is a product of transition probabilities, pi omega going from Xi to Xi plus 1. So that's the general RWRE model on ZD. Anything I could clarify at this moment? It's funny to stand up here in the bright lights and not with no contact with you guys out there. Any questions at this point? So obviously, like we often do in probability right, we construct things on canonical probability spaces. So here the natural canonical choice would be that omega is a product space, say script B to the ZD, where script P is the space of probability measures on ZD. And then omega is a configuration or an assignment of these jump probability vectors on this work. OK. So what was I about to say? Yeah, just to describe the canonical choice for this probability space is one where we just build in the transition probabilities into the space omega itself. So I would go that omega is now a configuration indexed by the lattice points. And each omega little x is a probability measure, which gives the probabilities of the jumps. So then the transition probability matrix from x to y would be you pick the omega x probability distribution, and then you take the probability of the jump from x to y. And then as you might imagine, the most basic and popular and important thing to study is the case where these omega x's are IID, right? So the IID environment means that the omega sub x's are IID. IID under P. All right, let's try to see one. Can you hear me now? Yes. I can hear myself now, so you can too, right? All right. So that's the general RWRE model. Where is it coming from? Well, the mathematical study can kind of be dated to a Cornell thesis by one Fred Solomon in 1972. The advisor was Frank Spitzer, of course, whom we all know for his random workbook, et cetera. Somehow this is not sitting right. I guess I did it wrong. No, still not right. Maybe I should. I really should use these clips here rather than this. OK, that's good. Let's see. All right, let's try. OK, so Fred Solomon wrote his PhD thesis under Frank Spitzer, 1972. And he did a very nice piece of work. So he studied the one-dimensional IID case. And he delineated transience and recurrence and laws of large numbers. And his thesis is a 1975 AOP paper. So that's when it all started. So now we've been studying this thing for about 40 years. But just like in these other favorite models of ours, like first passage procolation, which is the generalization of the IIDN model that Jeremy mentioned yesterday, and many others, despite these decades of work, we've barely even scratched the big results. So the study of this model has sort of splintered into studies of various special cases where we assume a little more structure and then we can make some progress. So just to tell you the pathetic situation of the study of this, well, it's not pathetic, but just to indicate what kinds of basic questions are open, if you take dimension D equals 2 here and make these jumps to be just nearest neighbor, we still don't know if it's recurrent or transient. So that kind of stuff, that level stuff is still open. So I'm going to now drastically simplify the model. So I'm going to go into two dimensions and I'm not going to allow the walk to sort of roam around. But rather, I'm going to force it to go into particular directions and I'll of course take the environment IID. So now I'll do a directed nearest neighbor, RWRE on Z2. So I'll allow only two steps. So from each point X, you can only go to the right or up one step. And my environment, omega, well, I only need one number at each point X now to determine the environment. So I'll take it to be this horizontal jump probability. So let me call it omega from X to X plus E1 like this and one for each lattice point. And then the complementary probability will of course be one minus that. And I'll take these to be now IID. So now you see what's happening is that as my walk marches along, it always jumps to a new level, so to speak. So it's always seeing fresh environments as it goes. So now if I calculate the average distribution of the average path probability, let me do it over there conveniently. Still have that in view. And let me actually take a piece of colored chalk here to see if this works. So the average distribution of the process would be the one where I integrate away the omega variable. So let me just write it by dropping the omega. And so that's what I get when I take this probability here and I integrate over omega. So that's now this blackboard bold P. And I come over here and I take expectation. So this blackboard bold E is the expectation under that P. And now for any fixed path, I'm always forced to sort of go forward. So these XIs will be all distinct. And since my environment is IID, expectation of product is product of expectations. And we just see that this average process is just a classical random walk that obeys the averaged transitions. So this simplification allows us to do a lot with this kind of a model. So under these assumptions here, this walk X dot satisfies all the classical results. So it has a law of large numbers, a central limit theorem, a large deviation principle. Now it's obvious that it has these properties under the average measure P because then it's just a classical random walk. But it's also the case that it has these same properties under the quenched distribution. So the first one is the first statement is immediate from classical results. The second ones need proof, not the law of large numbers because an almost sure law of large numbers under P implies the same under P omega for almost every omega. But the other two results need proof. I don't need the CLT going forward, but I do want to record the law of large numbers and the LDP. So let me just write those down. So the law of large numbers says that xn over n converges to the expected velocity. Let me call it c star. So that's, of course, in terms of this notation here. It's just the pair of transition probabilities. So the velocity is a vector. Now pointing in that northeasterly direction.  I need to refer to it in the sequel. So let me actually write it down. So qLDP, so quenched LDP, it says that if I take the quenched probability that xn is at point n times c. So my c will come from the line segment between e1 and e2. Let me draw a picture here. Since the admissible steps are e1 and e2, all the possible asymptotic velocities of the walks are on this little simplex here between e1 and e2. And sometimes I might abbreviate it u. So that's where this c comes from. And the brackets nc, well, that's going to be a discrete approximation of n times c, which is n steps away from the origin, so that this is a reasonable probability to write down. And then we take 1 over n log limit as n goes to infinity. Sorry, running a lot of space here. And the statement is that there is a quenched large deviation rate function, which I'll write capital I sub q, such that this limit is true for bold p, almost every environment omega. So that is a theorem. And IQ, well, it's a typical kind of decent large deviation rate function. It's going to be positive as long as you're off the low of large numbers limit. It's convex, but we don't really know any further regularity properties of it in this general case. If and only if not equals. Testing if anybody is still awake. All right. Let me, even though I don't really need the CLT, so I won't bother writing it down, let me, though, emphasize its importance. Because the whole point of one of the points of my talk is that once we go to the dub conditioned RWRE, we don't see diffusive behavior anymore. So diffusive behavior means that the walk obeys the standard kind of central limit behavior at the, in the scale, square root of n. Like the first CLT you learn in undergrad probability. OK, so that's the nearest neighbor directed RWRE. So now let me specialize further and impose a distribution on these weights. OK. Oh, to be honest, I should have said that there's a moment assumption for the large deviation principle, but it's not important, so let me skip that. So now I'll make those weights omega beta distributed. So now for the beta, beta RWRE. So now omega X to X plus E1 will be beta distributed with some parameters alpha beta. So fix alpha and beta to positive reels. So in case you forgot or have never had any reason to be interested in, beta distribution means that, well it looks like this. Let's see, I hope I get this fraction right here. The density is between 0 and 1, as it should write X to the alpha minus 1, 1 minus X to the beta minus 1 dx. So that's what the probability measure looks like between 0 and 1. And let me just highlight the fact that the uniform distribution is there. So the case alpha equals beta equals 1, sorry, is the uniform distribution. So in some sense, if you had to say what would be the most natural model here, that one would probably rank pretty high on your list. It's a pretty natural choice. OK, so that's the beta RWRE. So now it didn't seem for a long time that there was really nothing in common or nothing linking these RWREs in IID environments with the KPZ class. But this changed when Guillaume Barracond and Ivan Corwin discovered that this beta model is exactly solvable, so one can do very deep computations with it, and they found a link with KPZ. So here's their result. So Barracond, Corwin. So the result says that if you take the difference between this converging log probability and the rate function, then that has a tracy wedom correction in that n to the 1 third scale, which is the one for KPZ. So in other words, we take log of quenched probability, and now I need to write a deviation event here. So I'm going to write, I'll do the following pictorially. So here's, again, the simplex of those possible velocities. I mean, the uniform case now, so alpha equals beta equals 1. So the velocity c star points in the diagonal direction. So I want to go out here, say, and symmetrically out here, far enough away from the diagonal. So I'll say something like xn.e1, capital N maybe, is bigger than nx1 log of that, and then minus n times, no, plus n times the rate function. OK, let's put rate function at c, where c is this point called at x, x1 minus x. So that's the probability of the deviation minus the limit. It's a plus there, because we have this convention of putting a minus sign there in large deviations. And then divide this by some constant, depending on x, times the n to the 1 third normalization. And then look at the probability of this under the probability distribution of the environment. And the statement was that this converges to the GUE distribution. Oops, I forgot something important, didn't I? I need to put an inequality. So let me write that all over again. Should have been a little more careful here. So bold P probability of log of the quenched probability deviating away from its law of large numbers velocity. And this less than or equal to, say, s, close the bracket, this goes to the GUE distribution. That's correct, Ivan, is it? OK, so that was the result. So hypothesis uniform and then far enough away from c star. So this tells us that something Kpz, like, is going on. So then what, of course, intrigue Kiras and me right away, was then the question, where is the wandering exponent, the 2 thirds? So maybe a word of explanation here again, or maybe a reference to Jeremy's talk yesterday. So if you still recall, early on when Jeremy exhibited what the Kpz universality is about, there were two exponents floating around in his presentation. One was this 1 third here. And then the other one was the wandering exponent, or the transversal exponent 2 thirds. So we sort of expect these two to go together. And the answer is then that, well, first of all, of course, the mystery was that, well, since it was on that board that got erased, since the walk in the IID environment is just perfectly classical with central limit theorem behavior, it's not like the walk itself can have, sorry about this, maybe that's good. So since the walk itself in the IID environment behaves just like classical random walk, that's not the source of a 2 thirds wandering exponent. But then it was the doob transformed thing that exhibits the 2 thirds behavior. All right, so let me now then turn to describing our results in three parts.


The kids bring this life with them that just makes it more family-oriented, which encourages recruitment at a senior level as well. I'm Ethan and I'm a CFA junior. I'm Michelle and I'm a CFA junior. Well, I joined it because if there was a fire near I would join it and I would know what to do. Hello, my name is Lincoln and I'm a junior CFA volunteer at Gennline. The best thing I've learned being a junior is probably being able to communicate on radios and being able to roll out hoses and stuff like that. My name is Locke. I am a junior member at Gennline Fire Brigade. I joined the brigade because I really like firefighting. My dad, my uncle and a lot of my family members are in the Gennline Brigade. My name is Lenny and I'm a junior member in the Gennline Brigade. In today's training session we learn how to tie some just normal knots and then we played this game called Robots where we get to use the radios. I'm Jess and I'm from Gennline Fire Brigade. I'm a junior leader. We started eight months ago, started up the junior program then and that was primarily why I joined the Fire Brigade here. We had roughly 11 on the first night which was a really good turnout. Probably within the first month or two we had another fore come. The youth support coordinator came along, met with us. He gave us all these resources that we had at our disposal. Promoting that fun environment was what attracted a lot of the kids. I think that we have a really good communication method. I speak to the families through text messages during the week whether it be if there's something going on with the kids personally or if we have an extra session like we've just had a first aid course but I also think that a big part of it's been the fun for the kids and the interactive environment that we can give them. It's up to individual brigades to decide when they have their sessions, how long they run for. I do think though with our retention rate we've maintained that because we've chosen to do it weekly and I do think that's had a big part of it because it keeps it forefront of mind for the kids. Here is a very inclusive place. We never put people down. They just encourage you to do stuff and all that.


Assalamu alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuhu I'm the delight I've been asked to share a few thoughts On Ramadan and and this idea that You know kind of a preparation but preparation in a way that that perhaps excites us and I Think and starting off for this Ramadan This is special Every Ramadan is special no doubt But I would say for me That this is something special in particular Because this Ramadan for me now marks Two two lives if you will So I became Muslim when I was 26 And now this year becomes my 26th Ramadan So I have half of my life as a non-Muslim and half of my life now as a Muslim And I say that because I want to Share with you that in In this month You know we perhaps she upon Tries this kind of like one last assault To create doubt Right if you can't get us not to fast he's going to get us to have he's going to try and work on us to have doubt That's his game And I think about you know What life was like, you know kind of right up to that first time that you fast and Whatever delts that a person may have You can say with absolute sincerity, I'm sorry with absolute yakin that Whatever you think you can't do With the intention a love will see you through it Like whatever you think you can't do That a love will see you through that and As I think about this month I Want to share with you just some thoughts Of some notes that I wrote Some time ago, but I think that they are appropriate and I think about this month It's as if we are hosting a most unique most honored and most generous guest And it's a guest that we are blessed to host once a year for the duration of a month The guest arrives at a port and at a point in time and Departs at an appointed time and the beauty of this guest is that it brings the most sought-after gifts for the spiritual aspirant right if we are aspiring in Our relationship with us behind Allah then this guest brings the most sought-after gifts It brings God's mercy and generosity and disperses it to those who avail themselves to it like no other time of the year It brings us deeds that draw us nearer to our Lord and his pleasure in his garden like no other time in the year It distances us from the hellfire and protects us from Shekwan and his was to us Like no other time in the year It brings with the fragrance of the garden It brings life to our hearts with the eternal speech of the ever-living Creator creator of the Quran obviously we're talking about here and that fills our home with family's friends and loved ones and I think about this one one aspect here in terms of in terms of Protects us from Shekwan and his misgivings because what we find in this game is that Shekwan will tell us something or whisper something to us and Either we're going to listen to it or we're not And that's the game And normally what we have learned From our scholars and from what we understand from our tradition is that Shekwan will normally just kind of Put something forward to you once and if you don't Respond to it. He'll move on to something else But the nafs the nafs will continue to kind of pull push you towards that thing or pull you towards that thing and so we think about Ramadan as I said in this kind of protection from Shekwan that beautiful hadith, right? Futah al-abwab jannah We'll look at the abwab jahannam was susilal shayatin like what a gift that is from Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala that Allah says That the that at Ramadan that the that the doors of jannah are flung open and The doors of jahannam are locked and The shayatin are chained and so our teachers taught taught us that All that is good Will be pouring out from heaven And that's a gift of this month and all Energy if you will this is a term that we will use in this way just for the description of this of Negativity or any type of What's just called a negative aspect which the doors of jahannam that they are closed and The those types of whisperings from Shekwan are closed off and it says that all of this is To aid one to not be distracted in the month and I just thought that is just so incredible Right like everything is multiplied in this month of the actions that we're doing and then I'm gonna make it easier for you to even do it in this month and So I think about this in terms of of a gift, right? So this guest is Ramadan the month of Quran the month of layatu qadr the month of Mercy the month of forgiveness the month of liberation from the hellfire Right the month of patience the month of reflection the month of reflection and renewed spiritual commitment The month of charity for the under resourced and solidarity with the underserved the month of when the deeds are multiplied the month of the pre-dawned meals of of Suhoor and the month of qiyam and Tarawih and I just think to myself like You know when when we are Having a relationship with his guest I'm reminded of the tradition the one who believes in Allah mankana you may be like William and Akhir mankana you Be like William and Akhir for you Krim Jaruhu But the one who believes in Allah and is last in the last day last day to let him honor his neighbor Well, I can I you and be like William and Akhir for you Krim Yeah, no for you Krim Jaruhu and so and then also in another Meaning as well too then let him honor his guest right mankana you will know if you're a wife of who right let him honor his guest so here the question is How are we upholding our obligation to honoring our guests of Ramadan? That's the question that I want us to ask Right like if we know that a guest is coming what preparations do we make? Make sure everything is in order We might even hire somebody to clean the house and take care of all of these things and all these affairs now We have this month coming and we have this house right here How do we clean this house and how do we prepare this house for this guest that is coming? So Hamdullah as we think about this month To think about it, you know in that way and as mashallah our sister Husay mentioned here that There is emotional intelligence That is required You know, I think that there are some practical things as well too and just in terms of our spiritual Intelligence that we want to Think about one of the things that I was just reading with our students We've been reading for the past couple of weeks on campus after war each day We've been reading the etiquettes are fasting by Imam Ghazali and his book Ella bidat al-hidayat the beginning of guidance and one of the things that he said was Like he said do not approach the eating in the meal as If you want to make up for the food that was lost and not eaten throughout the day He said because that is the absolute opposite of what the goal and the intention of the month is because the whole idea of the month is to Lesson one's desires and now Maybe this is going to anger some people Maybe it won't however. I see that because I Give this advice that perhaps we look to simplify our meals during this month Look to simplify our meals during this why? Because meals take time meal take meal prep takes time Shopping takes time and all of that time. Yes. We are we want to have a good meal We want to have that but just for these 30 days Just for these 30 days the best 30 days throughout the year Look and see if we can approach this from a bond with a different type of approach to our food One that is just some simple now. I'll share this with you again, I don't say in any way to To to to say anything other than I just wanted to test to see what this was like So my first 10 days of last Ramadan only on dates in water 21 seven at Suhoor seven iftar and seven after Tarawih And I drank water, and I'm still here Hamdillah from the foot love of Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala and Tabarak Allah not to boast but to show you what Allah can do. I wanted to go the 30 days But I felt bad for my family Because I wasn't joining them in meals, but just because I wanted to say two things I wanted to see What was the meaning of Aswadain as we hear in the hadith of the Prophet ﷺ lived on dates in water? for three months in Hadith of Aisha radi allahu ala Right, so if he can do for three months, can we do 30 days now? I'm not saying everyone should have dates in water for the entire month. We could try and roast them We can put them in a curry. We can do different things. I'm just teasing What I'm saying is that it showed me What the possible and my schedule didn't change it's doing all of the things that I had to do why because then you also understand that with This is like a this is a means But the real the reality of all thing is a lot of Taufi in this because we can eat a Kings meal and not be satiated Or we can have dates in water and get up have our day Be with our family be in tarawih and do all of the other things that we need to do So in this preparation maybe in this month spiritually We look to push ourselves outside of our comfort zone of what we've been our Ramadan does that no doubt We have to get up at times that we normally don't get up. We have to you know Be without food and water for times that we normally don't and so within it Within itself right Ramadan has the the the ability to do that But let's think about perhaps other things that we're doing that we can begin to eliminate because as I said Before and I'll share this again is that is that as we look at Ramadan And we look at other aspects of the Dean and Ramadan falls into this category that Ramadan is Proximity to God. It's gaining nearness to Allah. Subhanahu wa ta'ala through subtraction Right through subtraction So if we look for multiple places within our lives of where we can subtract Let's see what this Ramadan will look like And that we pray Masha Allah that this is you know one of the the if not the greatest Ramadan that we've had Well, ma bi dhalika ala wa bi aziz that's not difficult for Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala to filter that Right and then one of the things that I'll just end with here and and and I I kind of I feel like I always like to share this is that we we really become people when Allah says we really look at this I it and we really look to to to to What can I say that we really look to live with this verse of Quran Allah says, you know what Allah says in Quran Yeah, but you Adam Ah Kudu zina to come and a cool image it will cool. What's for the walla to srifu in a hula? Yes, I love most of you That old children of Adam adorn yourselves adorn yourselves When you enter into the places of worship and eat and drink and do not waste where he does not love those who waste and so think about Food or other things in this month think about this That maybe I take a few sips of this and if I set it down I walk away Where is it? What's left inside of the bottle doesn't matter to me? There's another bottle right there on the count I'll just grab another one Right, so think about this now that would be considered waste and I just spent my entire day Got up for Tahajjud prayed Had sohoor made dua fasted Made my intention fasted real Quran gave charity made thicker visited the sick attended a janaza and all of these things that could be possible in one day in Ramadan broke my fast made do I do I as musta job that The prayer is accepted, but then at the time of my meal I will load my plate up not eat all of the food and then throw food away, and Allah just says in Quran That he does not love so I go through the entire day in the state in which he is Pouring out his love because of all of the actions that we did only to flip it into that side and be in a category that he describes With his own words of saying that he doesn't love those who waste so maybe let's try to make a Promise to ourselves to Allah to our community to our Akhira to whatever it is That we look with intentionality that any type of any morsel of food Will not will be consumed by us Okay. Now. There's one dispensation that I allow Which is if someone else makes you a plate of food and that is because people I feel They misappropriate the sunnah and they say the prophet salam was generous So they'll load food and food and food and food and one more scoop and one more scoop and one more scoop Onto your play and you're looking at you're like I couldn't eat that between now and Tuesday And then I'm supposed to go pray tarawih and have presence with that Right and so if that is the case, maybe we can eat a portion of it If we eat a portion of it after tarawih, I don't know but I'm just saying that we really look you get my point We're trying not to you know We're trying to to remove this Cognitive dissonance to say Alhamdulillah that the up I'm in a was a corner would you on them in a muslim mean make Dua and then throw food into the garbage Right So this is a challenge that I put out to myself and I put out to all of us here who are present and shut Other we can pass it on to those who are absent as well, too that this is part of our spiritual preparation Right that we will that we will commit ourselves to not be people who waste In this month inshata Allah it becomes habituated and we move forward with that be it in less behind what to Allah So those are just a few brief thoughts Alhamdulillah as we prepare for this month, and I think that you know, Alhamdulillah sister Husay she read the dua at the end Allahumma barakana fi baqta ila Al-waliya Sha'ban wabaligna Ramadan O Allah bless us in the remaining days and nights of Sha'ban and allow us to experience I like that personally. I like that translation allow us to experience Ramadan with all of its gifts with all of its gifts that Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala that we know of and that We don't know of all of the gifts that we know and that we don't know Facilitated by Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala. Who is the most generous and and and in this month You know puts out a generosity and deals with us in a way that is just unimaginable and may Allah Subhanahu wa ta'ala continue to bless this community and And its organizers of this community and the members of this community to facilitate What it does in aiding people to have a beautiful month of Ramadan


Well yee-haw! Welcome to Monet Café. I'm artist Susan Jenkins and here today we're doing the last in a series of farm themed paintings and today's painting tutorial is of a barn and a beautiful farm scene with mountains so I'm glad you've joined me here today. I hope you learn a lot. I hope you'll subscribe if you haven't. Hit that little bell icon to be notified of future videos. And if you would like to become a patron of mine to support Monet Café and get extra content it's only $5 a month and it's easy to find. Patreon.com slash Susan Jenkins. Alright let's get started. I was enjoying that country music. I have some serious country roots in the Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Okay so I've been using this Paris collection of Sennelier pastels a lot. You may wonder why I've used it a lot. I'm away from my home studio since my mom passed away still with my dad staying with him and I'm a little more limited in my pastels. Now this is Sennelier the same company as the pastels pastel paper. It's sanded paper it's Sennelier Le Carte pastel card. It's called pastel card because it's a little thicker. I love this surface and I am doing kind of a long format landscape with this. I actually altered a lovely reference photo that I cropped it quite a bit and made some adjustments in Photoshop's to get it the way I want. I want to show my patrons how I did that and this reference photo is actually from one of my patrons Patrice de Dominic. She is from my Patreon page and my patrons that's her calf painting there. My patrons get to submit their work into a homework album and I get to see all of their creations from my tutorials. I just love it. Look at all the duck paintings. You can tell it was farm theme this month. Oh gosh and poor Ian. He had a leg injury so he painted sunflowers on his cast. That was creative. I am so proud of my patrons and it's such a blessing to see what they're creating from my tutorials. Alright let's get to painting. My last tutorial that focused on getting a loose painterly look with loose and painterly edges was of a hen and it was all real time. The entire video with the exception of the sketch and a teeny bit at the end. Now I am speeding this one up a bit. A little bit at the beginning. I'll speed it up a little bit more towards the end. The painting was oh gosh probably less than two hours long so I want to be able to upload it. I have kind of slow Wi-Fi. Anybody else out in the country you kind of that's one of the disadvantages of being out in the country is you sacrifice fast Wi-Fi speeds but that's okay. I like the fresh air and sunshine. But I'm going to be providing commentary especially here at the beginning portion and I want to talk a lot about of course a painting this scene but also I get a lot of comments about how when you first start applying pastels you feel like you're not getting a good application and notice my pastel strokes here. Can you see how the surface of the paper is still showing and that's okay. If you are first starting out with pastels and that's frustrating you try not to get frustrated that's just the process. Pastel painting is a gradual process. It often takes a while before it starts coming together. A lot of artists talk about it going through an adolescent stage or teenage stage so it sometimes does look a little unfinished and perhaps not quite what your goal is or aim until you get a few layers down so don't get discouraged at that. It is best to keep a light touch. See right now I'm using this kind of cool green. I'm getting in some of my darker values and it's okay that I've still got that paper showing through because I'm going to be gradually adding layers. Trust me the pastels start to layer themselves as you work. Now the disadvantage if you go ahead and press hard and you try to get a solid application is you're going to fill up the grit of that tooth of that paper. The paper is sanded for a reason. It's sanded so that you're able to get a lot of layers and really get creative but if you fill it up early on you're going to lose that layering ability. Your color is going to start to look flat and muddy and you also don't get the color mixing. That's another video I'm going to be making soon about how you really can mix colors with pastels on the surface but if you're not keeping a light touch that just doesn't work. Now you can see how I'm taking a warmer green and I'm keeping a really light stroke here and I'm layering it over some of the darker value I've already put down and gradually these pastels will start to combine and make new color combinations and a lot of fun color energy. I'd also like to add that I really love using Sennelier pastels on Sennelier pastel card and of course it's made by the same company so that makes sense but the Sennelier pastels are soft and buttery and awesome color. In my last video of the hen painting was it that one? Actually I think it's the one just before that with some crazy chickens. I talk a lot about pastels consistency, how they're made, why certain pastels are more expensive than others, and why some pastels get much more vibrant color. I give kind of my recommendations on what types of pastels to buy. I'm trying to remember what that video was called but it had it's just two videos back. Maybe I can put a little link up here somewhere where you can see it and you may have noticed at the beginning where you could see my initial sketch. It was just a charcoal pencil where I laid out the basic shapes. You see here now I'm not getting into any detail right now. Everything is basically just the largest shapes and I actually recorded my process when I was altering the photo in Photoshop and I'm gonna try if I have time to create a video. If you're one of my patrons and you're listening here I'm gonna try to create a video where I show you kind of how I broke down the photo to its basic shapes and simplified it. That is what I totally recommend. I would say almost always when you do a painting is to get your big shapes in your values, your basic values and colors in first and then you start working honing it in with the detail towards the end. So big shapes to small shapes, values first of a good value study and then you're just really ready to get going in your painting and start having some fun putting in the details. You'll notice at the very end of this I'm gonna show you how I even put in a fence at the end but I'm not even worried about any of that stuff right now. I'm just getting in big shapes, value and a basic color palette. I'd also like to mention that even though it's early on in the painting still I'm trying to create directional strokes. I wanted the sky to feel like it was radiating out. What would you say the focal point is in this particular reference image? Well I would say it's the barn and kind of that tree and I still wanted the painting, it felt a little heavy on the left side with that barn so I still wanted there to be some interest on the right side of the painting so as it goes on I create those trees a little bit more on the right. Also I create the fence and everything in a way to where I think I hope it's working with my focal point. So the energy that I'm creating with the sky with my directional strokes that just means take your stroke in the direction that you want the clouds to go or the viewer's eye to go and I wanted that to complement my focal point strategy and just create a composition that had more energy and drama perhaps. Now I use my finger to blend a little bit there but I usually don't like to over blend on the surface because like I said the pastels blend themselves so beautifully when you give them a chance. You will see me later actually use a packing peanut. It's like a piece of styrofoam to do a little bit of blending but I try not to over blend. I'm going to add a little bit of music now and let you watch and think about the things that I've talked about already but I'm gonna be back when I get to blocking in the barn and give some commentary there. I'm still keeping this just barely sped up at this point. I'll only speed it up a little bit more towards the end so enjoy. I'm keeping this with the farm theme and some good old country kind of blue grass music so enjoy. Here I'm developing a few of the clouds. I didn't want any really distinct clouds. I wanted them really subdued because I didn't want to draw too much attention to edges in the clouds or in the sky so I'm just really just making some lighter cloud shapes all emulating a little bit from the photo but like I said before mostly trying to keep that energy where things are radiating out from the barn and giving a little bit of drama to the scene. All right now I'm going to move on to actually getting in the value. Really I'm focusing on value which means the lightness and darkness really more so than color. I know it's going to be a reddish or burgundy color, deeper colors. I had to put my glasses on but really what I want to do is I want to get those darker values. If you look at the reference photo where's the sun coming from? Well you know it's going to be kind of the upper right. You can look at the tree and see that there are lighter leaves towards the top but you can look at the barn and see that the side that's kind of facing us is the shadow side where I'm painting right now and it's a pretty dark value so really again like I said at the beginning I'm focusing on shapes here and not getting any detail so I purposely avoided the barn with everything because I knew I wanted to take my time with it and when it's an architectural structure something with perspective you have to get right. Those are things it's not like a tree you can't just you know with a tree you can be a little bit off with a leaf or a branch and that's okay but with a structure like this you want to make sure you get your angles and your perspective right so that's why I wanted to take my time and kind of focus on that separately. In a second you'll see me start to develop the roof and the values of the roof which is receiving sun. I wanted to mention to the notice the dark that I put kind of under the eaves of the house that's because a shadow is being cast so that's definitely going to be darker even though kind of the front side of the barn I said house of the barn is brighter because of the sunshine make sure to get those shadows under the roofline and now you can see I'm just using kind of a medium to dark gray and I'm cooling it off a bit with a little bit of purple I wanted to add a little bit color interest rather than just that gray and purple is a good color to use sometimes when things are in shadow and I'll reiterate that it's best just to think of these things as shapes I'm looking at my reference image I'm seeing like the roofline where I'll be painting right now that's really like an upside down triangle if you look at the reference image you can see that shape and so try to really pay attention to those things and also of course the value I know that the that area right there is lighter than the other roof lines and I created a little darkness down lower where the tree was to create some depth now this is the fun part I loved the bright sunshine on the front part of that barn and also to notice I don't know what it was coming from but there was a little shadow being cast to the right side of that barn face there I decided to leave it there I wasn't sure if it was maybe from one of the branches of the trees but I thought it added some dimension and I played around with some colors here but I did decide to make this part of the barn the brightest you'll see in a minute that I actually make it even a little brighter and warmer there I'm just adding a little warmth like it's kind of peeking around this corner of that barn face there now here's the brighter it's actually kind of a coral pink color and there's where I wanted to just add that differentiation and sunshine hitting it you see how that really just brightened that up now this part of the barn top part of that barn is not as bright it's in the sunshine too but you can see in the reference image it's just not quite as bright as that little part below so I wanted to keep it accurate and it makes it more believable so you'll notice that the color that I'll use to lighten up this side of the barn is not quite as light in value or bright in color as the one on the lower portion there and I thought that was effective I took a little break and wanted to start painting again and I wanted to share that I love to burn essential oils or it's a diffuser you're not really burning them but I love frankincense and darn it's so expensive but I just sometimes even put it on to smell it while I paint now I'm gonna add a little music again while I paint and don't go anywhere because I will be back towards the end to talk about this fence that I'm gonna put in and I'm gonna give you some little tips and techniques on how to effectively create a fence often we give too much information when creating fences and I'd like to share that with you so here's some music and I'll be back fun they had some pretty crazy titles too I hope you guys enjoy the music I get some great feedback suggesting that you do so I like to have fun with these tutorials now I'm adding a little bit of that same light I added to the grasses to the the top of that tree it's really starting to give some things to mention I wanted to show you this I'm using I believe this is a terry Ludwig pastel I brought out my box of neutrals to show you that I did grab a few other pastels other than the Paris collection by Sennelier and I like using the edge of those terry Ludwigs because they're a rectangle they have a little edge and it makes nice grasses so now I'm back to the Paris collection and just kind of fine-tuning the clouds but I'm gonna jump ahead just a bit I'm almost done here and I'm gonna talk about the fence and creating a believable fence what I'm using here is another one of the Prismacolor new pastels I have them in really small pieces because this is my travel set since I'm out of town and they make almost the perfect little height of a fence post all I want to do at this point you know when things are far away like this you really just need to suggest things often well early on in my art career when I would try to do things like a fence or whatever I try I got up my ruler I tried to line everything up just perfectly and made my fence way too noticeable and in cases like this you're gonna have light reflecting off of things and you don't always see every line perfectly straight or smooth and with regards to straightness it's actually good to vary your fence post it's really gonna make it look believable especially in a case like this like it's an old farm if you saw the reference image I'm veering away quite a bit from the fence that was there it was thicker and not in the same oh there's my dad's dog barking sorry adds to the farm theme right and it was I've put my fence in a different place once again to balance out like I mentioned before the composition I added a fence on the opposite side kind of coming in to draw the eye into the painting see how suggestive that is you don't need a whole lot I hope you guys enjoyed this this is the last in the farm theme for the month of July and I'm gonna have a new theme in Monet cafe art group and I can't wait to announce what it is I hope you guys enjoyed all of the farm theme paintings and as always happy and blessed painting