My name is Martin Halbert. I'm the NSF science advisor for public access. I'm delighted to introduce this session About the federal year of open science We have four presenters on this panel will be we're gonna reserve some time for questions Q&A at the end Our first presenter is Miriam Zaring-Hollum from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Oh, we did. Okay great There's just a bit of a lag. Okay, I'll bring this down to my level So good afternoon My name is Miriam Zaring-Hollum, and I am the assistant director for public access and research policy at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy or OSTP for those who like acronyms So for those of you who aren't familiar with OSTP our mission includes providing science and technology advice to the executive office of the president and working with our very great federal partners including those here on this panel with us today As well as with Congress to create bold visions wise policies and effective equitable programs for science and technology Now my work at OSTP centers on advancing the Biden-Harris administration's commitment to providing public access to data Publications and the other important research products of the nation's taxpayer-supported research and development enterprise So we're here today to talk to you about the 2023 federal year of open science Which officially kicked off as many years do in January With a slate of actions from federal agencies to advance open and equitable research in Total 17 federal agencies and departments as well as OSTP Signed on to this effort with other agencies Contributing to our discussions and activities through the National Science and Technology Council's subcommittee on open science Which is made up of representatives from across the US government So the year kicked off with the unveiling of a US government-wide definition for open science Which was developed by a team of agency representatives through that subcommittee on open science To really anchor and root us in a common understanding of open science and what we're trying to achieve Through open science So collectively we've defined it as the principle and practice of making research products and processes available to all while respecting diverse cultures Maintaining security and privacy and fostering collaborations reproducibility and equity Now this definition is doing a whole lot of work braiding together the administration's priorities and aspirations around advancing a vision for science and for research more broadly So it first leads with this commitment to enhancing access to the products and processes of research Which is really foundational to all of the definitions of open science that we came across and that informed our own definition here It's inclusive Noting that these research outputs must be made equitably available to all whether we're thinking about researchers students policymakers community advocates professors Small business owners or other members of the broader public The definition also notes the need for members of this open science enterprise to respect diverse cultures in their pursuit instilling a sense of curiosity and humility while reinforcing that inclusive spirit it also Centres need the need for considerations around security and privacy when making decisions around what can and should be shared broadly and it ends by looking towards The outcomes of open science. What are we aspiring towards? Namely opening up more opportunities for collaborations with diverse stakeholders across all of society Enhancing reproducibility by increasing access to the data and tools underlying research findings and supporting equitable access to those findings Now if we look to the administration's Aspirations from curbing greenhouse gas emissions to reducing social inequalities to ending cancer as we know it These all while driving equitable Outcomes for all across our nation bolstering public trust in science and in research and strengthening our decision-making abilities These are really complex and multifaceted challenges that require a diverse and collaborative knowledge base And so advancing open science policies is really critical to realizing these aspirations And to ensuring that all of America can participate in contribute to and benefit from science and technology So you can learn more about all of the great work that has been happening Across the federal government in this last year if you go to open dot science dot gov But for now for I'm gonna do a very quick Year-in-review recap of some of the activities that have been going on at agencies other than those represented on this great panel here So we can generally organize These activities and initiatives that have been advanced in this past year into five overarching themes I'm sure you could reorganize them in a different way, but this is how I've sorted them in my mind So we have policy development to advance the practice of open science and ensure The benefits of government-funded research can extend to all We have infrastructure developments or enhancements to enable that access in a manner in a manner that is equitable and secure There is opportunities for training and capacity development to promote a workforce that contribute that can contribute to and advance open research We have opportunities for community engagement to broaden participation in open science And then we're also thinking about promoting incentives for advancing open research practices so that this important work is recognized and rewarded So starting with that first sort of bucket of activities the the 2023 year of open science of course comes on the heels of OSTP's 2022 memorandum Titled ensuring free immediate and equitable access to federally funded research Now this memo builds on and strengthens the public access guidance that was issued a decade before by OSTP in 2013 So the driving principle motivating the updated policy guidance can be summed up in the memo itself Where it says that American investment in such research is essential to the health economic prosperity and Well-being of the nation there should be no delay between taxpayers and the returns on their investments in research So since the memo was issued We have been really hard at work across the entire government Coordinating and collaborating with our great agency partners around its implementation Agencies with over a hundred million in annual research and development Expenditures who were originally covered by the 2013 memo Submitted their updated public access plans to OSTP and OMB for review in February 2023 After our review a number of those agencies have made their including NSF Have made their plans for policy development publicly available and you can find those updated plans if you go to organized on science.gov and Newly covered agencies Specifically those with research and development expenditures below a hundred million We're given more time to develop their public access plans for the first time They submitted their plans to us in August and we've been working with them since then to get those plans finalized and translated into policies Now of course the celebration of the year of open science goes beyond public access a key point In a key factor in enabling open equitable and secure access to research outputs is ensuring that we have robust infrastructure So we have activities like CDC That has launched its data modernization initiative Adopting innovative data systems that get information to CDC and the public quickly and accurately We also have the Department of Energy Which launched PIDs at osti.gov which is a website That provides Streamlined and unified access for its persistent identifier services Agencies have also worked to support and sustain a community of open science practitioners through various Training and capacity development activities. So just last week NASA has transformed to open science program Release their open science one-on-one curriculum, which introduces Those beginning their open science journey to important definitions tools and resources and provides participants at all levels recommendations on best practices so you can head on over to that website and access that that Really wonderful training opportunity there In addition NIST released version 1.5 of its research data framework or the RDA Which is a resource that maps out the research data space and provides a dynamic guide for various stakeholders To understand best practices costs and benefits for research data management and dissemination The RDAF has been developed through really extensive Community engagement Including a plenary that was hosted earlier this fall and a request for information That was released over the summer to get that really important input from the community In addition to training those who are already interested and engaged in open science Agencies have created engagement opportunities aimed at broadening participation in open science reaching out to those who we May be traditionally haven't reached out to in the past So these activities include Continuing long-standing programs like the US geological surveys community for data integration Which is a community of practice working to grow usgs's knowledge and capacity and scientific data and information management and integration We also have activities that have been aimed at understanding the needs of those who would like to become more active in the open science space So over the summer OSTP hosted a series of four listening sessions on advancing a future of open science Centering the needs of the early career researcher community And there were a number of key themes that emerge from this session that might be of interest to you all and we've been sort of noodling them in the interagency space What the first is that early career researchers have really long been at the forefront of the open science movement That a future of equitable open science requires Recognizing and addressing uneven access to open science infrastructures Expertise training and funding and that rewarding the sharing of research outputs beyond Publications like scientific data and code is really critical to incentivizing open science practices and public access policies Which brings us to our final sort of bucket of activities Which is you know thinking about how can we incentivize the practice of open science? So in addition to creating funding opportunities and vet and investments Through various activities that I touched on over the course of my remarks to you all We've thought about how to spotlight stories of open science success How can we sort of shine a light on these great exemplars that have been happening for quite some time well before the 2023 year of open science So in September we launched the White House OSTP year of open science recognition challenge partnering with a number of agencies to promote the challenge We invited researchers community scientists Educators innovators and other members of the broader public to share stories of how they've advanced equitable open science And the goal is again to spotlight the stories and the teams behind the projects that have advanced a particular challenge or addressed or Given us a solution to a challenging problem while embodying the principles of open science And by highlighting the transformative impact of open science on society These stories can inspire others to contribute to this movement as the US government Continues from a year of open science and into a future of open equitable and secure research And so with that we're thinking about that quite a bit today We've been talking about a year of open science 2023 is a year But how can we move from that you know all of the great progress that we've made? Sustain this momentum into a future of open science And so with that I will turn it over to my fellow federal colleagues to share in more detail what they have gotten underway Thank you for your for your attention Our plan is to reserve a group time for Q&A at the at the end of this um What I'm gonna have more of a Off-the-cuff set of remarks namely so that I can speak to this a newly revamped interface to the science gov site the Agencies that are listed as collaborating in the year of open science Are a subset of a larger group of federal agencies that Participate in a number of Subcommittee efforts of the National Science and Technology Council namely the subcommittee on open science This particular group the year of open science group is a Subset of those agencies that agreed to participate in this as a formal effort this year and Perhaps going forward as Miriam has suggested and The one of the you there's we see a lot of utility in the year of open science activity one of the things that has been exciting about it is that it Provided an external outreach kind of activity As a lens into the work of this very very active Subcommittee on open science within the federal space So we hope through the science gov site and specifically the open science gov portion of it to provide more of a Window into these activities into the very sort of active space of collaboration here so what I'm going to do is just narrate some of the features of this newly updated site and Kind of use that as a mechanism say a few words about NSF activities The you'll see this drop-down that provides a Number of windows into that space. Let me just go into the sub-site I can get to it. I can see Lee this is still open. Yep. Okay, so this is just a a list of agencies and Sort of the this preserves a lot of the information that was on the prior site Which was a lot sort of blander sort of more of a traditional 1990s kind of website. We just tried to update it with a few content management sorts of functions But the The what let's see I want to go first to this one, which is a list of a lot of people were asking us Where can we see the new public access plans and guidance that are coming out of these agencies? So we made this special page that has Expansion points for all of the different agencies that are working in this space So let me use NSF as an example if you click on the Expand button here. You're going to see three key links to NSF resources First let me what's labeled here additional guidance on NSF public access. This is the NSF Public access initiative site. So in other words the agency Web page that provides access information on what we're doing in the area of open science NSF has done for example a lot of public Engagements, this was one we were very pleased in the results How can public access advance equity and learning? It was a joint webinar that we did with triple AS And the recordings to all of these all of the sessions within that site are all provided there So you can go and watch those. This was a particularly I think I learned a lot in that session because it featured not only the federal agency presentations Not just in a NSF, but also NASA NIH DOE and also junior researchers and people that coordinate programs for early career researchers that I found very catalytic in their perspectives their Observations on where they see public access going in the future So I would direct you to if you want to see some of our External public engagements that have been recorded go to this site. We have a link to a number of other NSF public engagements that we Undertook to get feedback as we were planning on the release of our public access our new our public access plan 2.0 and you can read all about that there as well as a lot of other information That about internal agency guidance from our different directorates Other features and I'm trying to keep my comments short so we have time for our other presenters The other links here are one to our original public access plan Excuse me From in response to the Holden memorandum of 2013. This was NSF's first public access plan 2015 today's data tomorrow's discoveries and was the inception point of our response to the Holden memorandum And how we set everything up the other item to that is linked out here is of course our second public access plan something that took up a lot of my time over the last year and a half and You can read about our how we are updating and Planning to implement and as it says here Undertake the activity of ensuring open immediate and equitable access to National Science Foundation Funded research so this website will hopefully provide a lot of information in addition to these basic core links to our agencies We've got this section which provides a a mechanism again for outreach and announcements from different agencies about New developments in the the space of of of this some this undertaking So with that let me Quickly transition then and there's more stuff on here if you want to you know, I would encourage everybody to browse through this thing Let me transition to Brett Bobly and he's gonna tell you about what in any age is doing Hello folks Very good to be here today You know as Martin indicated they NSF has just come out with their 2.0 version of their public access plan NEH is one of the agencies that one of the new agencies that is just working on their very first public access plan right now So I can't tell you how excited I am to have the to be able to tell you that today I've been working on trying to get the NEH to have a public access plan for a couple decades now Things move a little slowly in government But thank thank goodness for that memo from OSCP. Thank you. I'm Miriam. Thank you Alondra Nelson wherever you are today You know right now We have this unusual situation right where if for example an historian of science were to get a grant from the NSF and Publish a paper that paper would be subject to to public access That exact same historian got a grant from any from NEH. They would not they would not have to publish it in a public access forum And you know that that to me is very problematic You know, I remember a couple years ago a librarian a university librarian Let's talk to them and they said to me Brett. Are we get into a point where? All science is going to be open All the scientific disciplines, but all the humanities disciplines are gonna be behind paywalls and that was very concerning to me because I I feel like What we don't need is even more people feeling that Humanities research is irrelevant to to the conversations in the world today because I think it's extremely relevant to a lot of the issues we have today and I think that treating humanities research like it's something completely different from the discipline from discipline our research in the Sciences is a bad idea. So I'm very very pleased that the NEH is moving toward a public access plans Let me tell you a little bit about it First of all, let me know, you know public access really has been central to our mission at the age for a very long time I mean even in our founding legislation back in the 60s We talked about the fact that public funds provided by the federal government must ultimately serve public purposes We fund the dizzillion things as you many many if you know like the national digital newspaper project Which is a giant open open project In fact for over 20 years our grant guidelines have even stated that all other considerations being equal NEH gives preference to projects to provide free access to the public. So this is very much in our DNA But we've never had a formal public access plan Similar to what the other agencies have now So as per the 2022 the Nelson memo that came out from OSTP We are now working with our many other agencies and with OSTP to try to put together our own plan We have a draft plan already And we're kind of embarking on a tour. This is day one of the tour by the way to tell you all To tell you all that we were working on this thing So congratulations you get to hear before anyone else you can breaking news But anyway, we're working on that right now and I can tell you that One of the keys to our plan is to not be special for snowflakes We want our plan to be very similar to what you're going to find that NSF or NIH because we have the same applicants Our researchers are mostly people from universities and we don't want universities to have a completely different set of rules for the NEH They would for NSF or NIH or whatever. So We're endeavoring to make our plan requirements easy simple very similar to what you're already familiar with if you ever get a grant from NSF or another federal agency and We're working closely with with other agencies and with OSTP to try to make it as smooth as possible There are two key points to the public access plan and if you've read the Nelson memo This is not a surprise to you, but in a nutshell If you are a researcher and you get a grant from the NEH and you publish a peer-reviewed journal article you will need to send a copy of that peer review journal article the Manuscript to the NEH where we will put it into a designated repository So similar to like PubMed or something like that or the NSF part We're gonna have a designated repository where we will have a copy of peer-reviewed articles that were funded With research the underlying research was funded by the NEH So that's pretty pretty straightforward again very similar to what you're already familiar with Again, it's specifically about peer-reviewed journal articles doesn't impact You know NEH funds lots of other things doesn't affect like museum exhibitions We fund or monographs that we fund or films that we find this is really about peer-reviewed journal articles The other portion of course from the Nelson memo it has to do with scientific data sets right if you for example get a grant you create a scientific data set that maybe undergirds your peer-reviewed journal article you have to You have to describe to the NEH some kind of a data management and sharing plan to preserve that data and make it Openly available to the public now because of the nature of the humanities. We don't fund a lot of scientific Data set so that's not as nearly as common for the NEH Researchers it would be at NSF or NIH But nevertheless we will be making changes to our NOFOs our grant guidelines To ensure that if you are one of those grantees It does create a data set that you have a plan in place for preserving it and making it available to the public Okay You know as I noted earlier we don't just fund R&D. We fund lots of other things at the NEH public programming education, etc So for for people if you're the if your organization Plies to the NEH to make documentary films for example the public access plan may not have much of an impact on you This is more about the researchers that are applying to the NEH and you'll see that in our plan But that it's really mainly about about research Okay Here's our timeline which again taken straight out of the memo really We back on August 20th. We submitted our draft plan to Mary M and her colleagues at OSTP We are starting our listening tour. Oh, that's today by the way today's our listening to her So we're gonna be going around and talking to people letting people know about our new plan answering questions that kind of thing December 31st 2024 is our deadline for publishing the actual policies that kind of undergird the plan itself We're gonna hope it to roll out our designated repository in 2025 and then the ultimate ultimate deadline For the new policies to be effective is December 31st. I hope we're gonna actually get it done before that But those are the official deadlines, so Okay The public access point of context at the NEH is me and my colleague Chris Thornton Chris is the director of our division of research Feel free to get in touch with us at any time if any questions whatsoever, so thank you very much. Appreciate it Great. Hi, everyone. My name is Ashley Sands and I am a senior program officer at IMLS the Institute of Museum and Library Services And since this is CNI I will first say if you don't know what IMLS is then let's definitely chat right after this session But I because I'm gonna proceed as though you're fairly familiar with IMLS And again, if not we talk now Also, I do want to hit on something that Brett was just saying that You know while we're while we all made a different public access plan We do hope that they're fairly consistent, right? We it's not supposed to be some kind of trickery that your institutions have to memorize all these different things It's just within each context. There really are Our distinctions that and I'll give some examples of the kinds of decisions that need to be made based on the context of each institution You've already heard Brett already talk about, you know, what are you gonna do with monographs are not are not the same as Paraviewed scholarly publications that kind of a thing so some things are different and some things are the same And one of the things that's also the same as our listening tour starts today So great to see you and hopefully hear hear from you all again in the future as we kind of Proceed down this draft So IMLS is also one of those smaller agencies that was not required to develop a plan under the 2013 OSTP memo R&D expenditures are way less than a hundred million dollars annually However, because we're part of your community We've always had a commitment to openness at the agency supporting libraries archives and museums and so in fact in September in September of 2013 began work in order to create the increasing access to the results of IMLS and IMLS funded research and data now That's an internal document That so you haven't seen that but what you have seen is the policy Policy text that came from that plan and those have been in our general terms and conditions For the awards that I'm seeing many familiar faces that hopefully you've all read So You can see that there is text the text has been in there to encourage you to be sharing these materials over the years So there's two parts right articles peer review journal articles. So this is actually from our current terms and conditions We expect you to ensure that final peer-reviewed manuscripts resulting from research Conducted under to this award are made available in a manner that permits the public In fact, you must provide IMLS at least one copy of any printed or physical distributable products Also electronic ones. I do like every now and then I get something in the mail of a printed report, which is kind of fun You'll see that there's lovely words like we expect you to so there's there's less teeth That have been in these general terms and conditions and there will be once the new memo takes into place So we just talked about journal articles for a second there and now let's talk about the data component of the memo again Here's what's here's what's already here data resulting from our funded research needs to be in a broadly accessible repository I will note that right now it says no later than the data pond which you submit your final report to IMLS and I underlined that as a consideration of Immediate so immediate is going to be is a requirement in the new memo. What does immediate mean? Is are we going to retain that same definition is? immediate like as soon as you hear that You're accepted. You're like a quick put it in the repository that kind of thing. So that's just an example of the things that actually need to be worked out individually at each agency and Why you know on the surface coming up with these public access plans may be simple Just say what do what it says in the memo. There's actually a lot to be clarified And as always we have allowed you to include the cost of getting the the data or articles ready for public release or if there's any cost to Continuing to make them available All right, so that was the where we're at now. Where's where are we going? We do not have a public version of our public access plan yet, which Now that I think about it is something we need to remedy shortly But I wanted to share the thinking and planning that we've been doing over this more than a year since the memo came out Also a really quick side note We do have some internal research done at IMLS and they are also subject to this memo But you all you our colleagues here are interested in the requirements for the externally funded research So we're gonna talk more about that So here's something that Brett was just kind of talking about the distinction between what's required in the memo and What's recommended in the memo or what we feel us our community is recommending So these peer reviewed research publications again are gonna are required These need to be made open and again for data. It's the data underlying those peer reviewed research publications But IMLS we support so many different other kinds of grant deliverables In addition to these kinds So a big consideration at the agency right now is how do we take the important steps necessary to meet the OSTP requirements? but how can we also use this as a time to kind of The impetus to be able to help make other kinds of grant deliverables more findable We're findable accessible reusable. I keep thinking maybe not quite fair at the moment I don't know about interoperable, but I'm gonna say we're gonna go far instead of there That's all I can that's all I'm going with it. I'm going with it So so so again, where are we going and what are we working on? The next steps we are going to be convening internal working groups again to come up with these Specifics for IMLS. So we need to define and operationalize some of these terms. I already mentioned immediate What does immediate deposit mean? We need to operationalize that does it is at the end of the grant period perform out Performance before close out again the second that you get the acceptance letter. We also need to operationalize research What does it mean to if you do a research study if you check the planning grant box Does that count as research if you have research questions? How are we defining that? You know, we have we have ways that we kind of define those right now But our do those need to adapt as we go into this As as we move forward past the memo You know other good things how our program officer is going to monitor compliance everybody's favorite things, you know The whole will there be carrots will there be sticks Can we make this beautifully integrated into our current content? EGMS reach our content management system Things that again behind the scenes we're trying to do I promise we're trying to do for you all to make it easier So you don't have to do something completely unique at each agency Again our listening tour is starting now, but we OSTP Mariam and her colleagues have already held a couple of Calls that she's she's mentioned previously and we were able to sit in on those so it's not the first time we're even considering What y'all have to say we're very interested and eager to continue to learn more. I Do want to just really briefly mention two really important Awards that we made over the summer that are particularly relevant to this year of open science and kind of one of the We'll say that's one of the ways we celebrated the year of open science at IMLS In fact, I believe your your colleagues for both these awards are are in the In the building if not in the room So the California Digital Library from CDL in the UC office of the president actually has been working with ARL in order to address the urgent needs of you all of various sized institutions to respond to these increased requirements to share this federally funded data So they're going to be enhancing the DMP tool Including with persistent identifier registries to meet these again these evolving funder mandates So they're heading towards machine actionable data management plans very excited about that again You'll you'll see that your colleagues here if you want to hear more about that Also an ARL has been leading this other initiative Through a number of institutions with the data curation network They are going to conduct research on the economics Investments in public access to research data We all love the term unfunded mandate Well these folks are going to take a look and see exactly how much is it costing you all at your libraries or at your institutions Largely through some surveys and interviews get a better sense of the expense and service models to allow this Public access to research data to happen Again, my name is Ashley. I'm hoping this is the start of our conversation and Looking forward to discussing that further, but otherwise we will take some questions and answers from the panel


Let's go to everyone loves this topic, Walt in New Jersey. Hey, Walt. Hi, good afternoon. I think somebody should send bone to somebody Yankee plays to a Little League game where they can see fundamental baseball played yesterday. Yankees were down to run, had a left-handed batter. Man on first, third baseman, Texas is playing at the shortstop spot. The shortstop is playing almost behind second base. Why don't they bat? There's never ever an opportunity that you have like that. Bunt the ball. But who was it? Who was up? I forgot. It was left-handed bat. I mean, it's not the first time this goes on. They don't get Yankee, Bunt never comes out when it's a good number to play. Nobody Bunts. Nobody Bunts. And the Bunt is down the line. Analytics believe that why would they give up an out? By the way, Trevino tried one yesterday. No, no, no, no. But down the line for a hit. Then you put a guy in first and second. There's so many times that you think base running Bunt is ridiculous. I mean, you can still make those mistakes. have you watched the Mets honestly. I'm watching the Yankees. I'm just telling you, there's other teams that play a lot worse. Fundamentals are- Oh my god, it's so frustrating. It's so frustrating. All right, all right, all right, all right, all of a sudden it's just, it stinks, but Alicia, you took two out of three? What game are you talking about? They won. Yeah, but they won at the end because they could have won earlier. Oh my, goodbye. Thank you for the, Walt, thank you for the phone call. So now we're going to bring it, they could have won earlier. Because baseball just had a rule. People don't realize that they award extra points if you win the game earlier in the context. So I've got a team that stinks. I've got a team that can't catch fly balls. I've got pitchers that can't fire strikes. I've got guys that can't run the bases. It's the bad news bears, Redux, with a major league team that's got the highest payroll in the history of sports. I've got people, grown men, calling the show, complaining that the Yankees aren't winning early enough in games, screw, go scratch yourself.  You just took two out of three from Texas. You're keeping afloat without the best player of baseball. I got to bet you guys that it's like they're humping a football instead of actually playing baseball. So I don't want to hear from you. I don't want to hear it. If they call, tell them, thanks for the call, go away. We didn't win early enough. My team's seven games under 500. They couldn't find a house on the face of the sun. Someone interrupts when he tells a lie. Just someone. But Peter, you know how frustrating it is for me? I'm waiting for the lie. But it's like, oh, I watched the Yankees. Well, good for you. You watched the team take two out of three of fundamental baseball. Watch that. Watch the eighth inning.  That is the first strike before every one of you brought to you by Corona. Enjoy the final life of sports. Corona, the official set of a set of Major League Baseball. I knew this was going to happen, Peter. And what you got was about 20% of a meltdown I had in the meeting. I knew these people were going to come out of the woodwork and go, why aren't they bunting? Do you watch baseball? And here's a little hint, Peter.  I want it. It's just a baby hint. It's about this big. It's tiny.  I have for the callers in the greatest city in the world. If you're going to complain about a guy not bunting, he's a hint. Who was it? You don't even know who it was. You're just complaining to yourself, complain. You're complaining that he didn't bun. He couldn't remember who the guy who didn't bun. Now I was watching the med game and trying to bounce back and forth. My daughter had a recital. I'm trying to stay up on these things. You watched the game. You had it, your face against the television screen, and you can't remember who didn't bun. And yet you call. You sit on hold for 20 minutes, and you don't know. And then you have the actual audacity to say they didn't win early enough. You know how frustrating that is? I don't even know how that works, by the way. I was at the game. I had a great time. I enjoyed myself thoroughly. Who was it? You don't even know, because you didn't care. You know what? You walked out of the building skipping because they won the game. Right.  Every day I walk into the studio is a miracle that my head doesn't explode. By the way, you use the word functional. You don't know that that's true. Yeah, because we don't know if you dialed the phone. His nurse may have. Hey, Don, I want you to do two things. Take a really deep breath, tell me your name, and then talk about cars. Don LaGrette, you're here for Ramsey Mines.


The authors discussed the importance of developing accurate worldwide estimates for the impact of antimicrobial resistance. This article was authored by Marley G. A. de Krakr, Andrew J. Stewardson and Stefan Harbeth.


Did you know it is thought that Wyoming was home to one of the most important copper mines in the West from the late 1880s to early 1900s? Copper deposits were discovered in the Sierra Madre Mountains in South Central Wyoming in 1874. A decade-long copper boom did not occur until sheepherder Ed Haggerty discovered a more significant copper deposit in 1897. The copper boom brought people, money, and engineering achievements. A steam and gravity-powered tramway was constructed to transport ore from the ferris Haggerty Mine to the Boston-Wyoming Mill and smelter constructed in Riverside in 1902. The tramway traveled east and gained nearly 1,000 feet in elevation to cross over the continental divide. The tramway then descended over 3,000 feet to the eastern flanks of the Sierra Madres and on down to the smelter. The tramway was considered an engineering marvel and was the longest in the world at the time. Each of the 840 buckets on the tramway could transport up to 700 pounds of ore. The extraction of copper at the mine ceased in 1908. To learn more and to view sections of the aerial tramway, visit the Grand Encampment Museum. From the University of Wyoming Extension, I'm Wendy Kelly, Exploring the Nature of Wyoming.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Filming for Tommy O'Brien, let's figure out what we got going on here. How y'all doing this morning? It is 58 and sunny in Florida, which is awesome. We're going to get some camping trips in here. Listen to some Stan Rogers or something like that. Let's look at what we're doing right now. All right, we're on the court, straight fundamentals right now. We're up. We're up in everything. We're up .93% before the open. The Russell futures up 1.37%. NQ up 1.32%. The Dow futures up .67%. Gold at $19.98. Still looking for above. We topped right there about 2020. Still looking for something going up from there. Silver at $23.14. And Copper at $3.68 on the contract. Tesla, we're up about 4% pre-market steel dynamics. Still trading in this bounds. I don't know. I need to hop in when we retrace back here. I think I'm going to do that. The dollar, we finally cracked it. We're at 105.88. Don't know if we're having some issues right now with the stream. Can't see the screen. Can anyone in the den tell me what's going on with this? You guys see anything? We'll run it anyways. What's the big news? What's letting this rally go on? Basically, Yellen was saying they're going to spend, excuse me, sell $776 billion in bond. This is lower than what they had announced, $852 billion prior. This somewhat suggests that we might have a stabilization in rates, at least in the tenure. This is very positive. This essentially kind of sends the market green. So rates have topped in theory. And this brings essentially less selling pressure in the bond market. This is very positive. Sorry, give us a second here. I think we are working on some technical difficulties here. All right. We'll take a look over here. We're going to Palantir. They had pretty solid earnings. So let's take a look here. Projects price revenue above estimates on demand for AI platform. They are trading about 17% up, which is pretty solid. This is obviously on a year to date. But we're looking right around here. This is a big move up. They've also been supplying just general AI for kind of warfare solutions. And there's another company called Andrew that does similar things that's run by Lucky Palmer. And what they're doing is supplying kind of tech out to border patrol agents. This is massive. So this kind of security solutions and AI is really blowing up. Data analytics firm Palantir Technologies forecast fourth quarter revenue above market estimates on Thursday, betting on strong demand for its new artificial intelligence platform from clients, including U.S. government agencies. We've spoken about them in the past. Palantir expects revenue between 599 million and 603 million, the midpoint of which was above analysts estimates of 600 million. Positive sign of the future. Demand for its new platform, the company said it was seeing strong interest in AI boot camps that it had launched in October to give clients access for one to five days. The company revenue rose 17% to 558 million in the third quarter, slightly above estimates. Revenue from government clients, key source of sales grew 12% below Wall Street expectations and 15% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Budgeting constraints at the government level has sparked some near-term uncertainty in the business, but Palantir remains positive on demand in light of geopolitical tensions. And that is a massive thing because their solutions are kind of used in, I say warfare, but we can also say security, right? Maybe it's not outright warfare, but you know intelligence gathering and stuff like that is not so direct. These guys will win with this. Still trading about 1745 on a share. It was really good a few years ago. I hopped on, there was a rally on, I don't know how long ago this was. Yeah, it was right around here. I think we went above, take a look here, further out. We traded about like $41 on the thing. I bought in around 30 and it popped up there. And luckily I got out quickly, but the problem was a lot of people didn't and it shot down and we're trading now at 1743. I like this stock. It's very interesting. And I think AI being used in kind of security solutions is definitely the forefront and going to increase. We have a news article here. We'll take a look. Uber and Lyft are paying $328 million to settle wage theft allegations in New York State. They agreed to pay a combined $328 million to sell allegations of the ride-hailing companies unlawfully withheld wages from drivers and failed to provide mandatory paid sick leave in New York State. Uber will pay $290 million while Lyft will pay about $38 million. The money will go to drivers affected by the company's alleged practices. More than 100,000 drivers in New York could be eligible to receive the funds and benefits secured under the agreements. James Office said drivers will be notified by mail. And this is such a rough like gig to be in. I had some friends who were doing, especially DoorDash, we'll talk about them because they're they had increased sales this quarter, which is pretty intense. I did not expect that, especially as I think a lot of people are not ordering out as much. So I wonder if some of these larger cities are really driving DoorDash. I know there's a major culture in Manhattan around it and I saw that a lot when I was there and a lot of people I spoke to when I was kind of prodding on that are still using DoorDash. But the workers for these companies, it's a tough space for them. If they don't get tipped, they don't make a lot of money. If they are sick, as we see in this kind of article here, it's really rough for them. Because in theory, at least we look at Uber and Lyft, they work for the company, but it's much more of a contract idea. Now, obviously they are employed, but they're using the idea that these workers would access Uber and Lyft's kind of marketplace in order to drive. It's not like a taxi company. This says for years that Uber and Lyft systematically cheated their drivers out of hundreds of millions of dollars and paying benefits while workers long hours, excuse me, while they work long hours in challenging conditions. It's interesting. So we're seeing kind of a shift in trying to get these companies in this kind of new economy that we are running. Take a look here. We can go into Starbucks. They had a massive increase as well. They're up 11%, which is pretty good for them. Look here. We'll go on the month. Huge green bar up there, trading from about the low here, at least on this bar, 91.38 before this breakout, about the same level hovering just under 92. We're trading at 101.60 now before the open. U.S. consumers still waiting to splurge on all their stuff here. This is massive. These guys are huge for the holidays with their pumpkin spice and chai lattes. And they've just maintained dominance even in a situation and in a world where people are really trying to support smaller breweries. The larger cities, they love Starbucks. It's easy. They're everywhere. And the product is consistent. Folks, stay tuned. We'll be right back. We'll get these technical difficulties sorted out in the break. And we'll see you soon. Stay right there. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com Educating Investors. The Fibonacci 24-7 30-day money-back guarantee. So you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all traders for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back. We are on YouTube now. We have the streaming going wrong. This is positive. You can see my mug now this morning. Before we left this for the YouTube folks, we were talking about estimates. Essentially, they're up 10.61%. And the big driver for this is that American consumers are still willing to pay higher costs for their premium seasonal beverages. That meme for the pumpkin spice is strong. Same-store sales were up 8% in the U.S. with the kind of introduction of the seasonal beverages. There's a lot of promotional activities. They popped it up. Obviously, the culture itself sells it to everyone with all the memes on pumpkin spice. International same-store sales also jumped 5%. It's a little bit less than was expected. China's same-store sales were up 5% and that beat estimates. And there was a lot of companies actually that have tried to beat Starbucks. Maybe I'll talk about that. I'm going to be filling in tomorrow as well. And we can go into a little bit, I think it was called Lucky Rabbit or something like that, but they had an attempt to beat out Starbucks and they were engaged in not great activities in order to do so and it fell through as well. Even though foot traffic increased 8%, people ordered less as the average ticket size fell 3%. That is in China. Starbucks has invested more in international business over the years. Recently announced 20,000 locations outside of North America and plans to expand 9,000 stores in China. That is a large amount. So anyways, that's what we got popping before the open today. So Barrett Gold, now this is good stuff here. Give me one second. I'm trying to pull everything up. From the Gold Report, if you're not subscribed, subscribe into that. We're at 1.19 right now. Barrett Gold beat Analyst Expectations for third quarter profit on Thursday. The Canadian Gold Minor Benefit from Lower Costs increased production and higher bullion prices. Again, the Gold contract is trading at about 1995. Toronto-based company posted adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share for the quarter ended in September 30 while analysts on average had expected 20 cents. Average prices of gold during this quarter rose 11.4% from earlier this year. With Barrett's average, realized gold prices rising 1928 per ounce from 1722. Let me take a look here. We really did have a nice runoff in gold. We get this from 1889, popped up to our high right now, at least of the year of 2019. Gold production in the third quarter was higher sequentially on higher production and it's still looking good for the gold bugs here. Of course, we're having a little bit of a pull down here from the top. We might get a consolidation kind of going on. We're talking a little bit. I didn't bring this up yet. Let's say quickly here. This isn't Europe, so it isn't always affected so much, but this company is being sued at least by some states in the U.S. This is META. The states of the U.S. are suing META because of Instagram's predatory content cultivation concept. Wow, that's a lot of got a little bit of a assonance right there, alliteration rather. European privacy officials are also hitting on them as well. META basically has behavioral advertising where it pulls in data from its users and basically tries to sell them things based on that, right? So they're putting kind of the kibosh on that. They've widened the band on the behavioral advertising practices to most of Europe on Wednesday, setting up broader conflict between the continent's privacy conscious institutions and an American technology giant. I still think that this culture is growing in the U.S. where people don't want this overall, right? So falling into that, you know, we had the lawsuit that finished out with Uber and Lyft, right? A predatory practice, as you're getting META smacked down on some of that as well. We have Attorney General at least in Washington, D.C., they're suing real-page and residential landlords. They're saying for rental price-fixing, illegally raising thousands of districts' residents' rents. Of course, you had that lawsuit. I think it was out in Kansas who got at the owners of MLS. I think that's the N.A.R. And then obviously Zillow and Redfinn got hit on that as well for kind of working together to increase some kind of fees. So now this is expanding into just straight landlords in general. The defendant landlords are some of the largest providers of multi-family housing in the district. This is in Washington, D.C., and the Office of the Attorney General's investigation revealed that real-page technology was used to set rents for more than 50,000 apartments across D.C. This is pretty intense. Which offers a variety of technology-based services to real estate owners and property managers including revenue management products. So it would be interesting to see this kind of spread out in the country if we do get that. I think there is a case to be made in a lot of areas that this is happening as well in other spots. Let's go back in here.  In the saga of Disney, essentially, right, we're going to move over them now, okay? They've had quite a fall from grace. They're increasing prices to their parks, trying to kind of offset this major L that they've taken this entire year. And now they're moving into essentially buyout Comcast and take full control of Hulu. This is an $8.61 billion deal. It has not moved much at all at least pre-market on this news, which is not something that I like to see as someone who holds Disney. They're buying the rest of Hulu from Comcast. They'll acquire 33% of Hulu Comcasts. Excuse me. 33% of Hulu that Comcast still controls and expects to pay NBC Universal approximately $8.61 billion for it. Bob Iger said when he announced the combined streaming app that it's a logical progression of the company's direct to consumer offerings and that will provide greater opportunities for advertisers while giving bundle subscribers access to more robust and streamlined content. You know, I think that there's a bit, and you know, Bob Iger really presided over Disney after a massive kind of run-up for it, right? And they brought him back in to try to straighten out the company. I think that they're seeing issues in streaming already with Disney Plus. Okay, so that's one thing. You're buying not necessarily a competitor, but something in the same kind of industry you're in. I think that Disney, you know, this might pay off for them, but I worry that they're kind of losing, you know, what they're meant to be doing, right? Which is they have this technology, which is pulling out phenomenal movies that everyone loves. They're big blockbusters. Obviously, they acquired Star Wars, which was positive for them revenue-wise, at least in the beginning. They've had to shut down some parts of their Star Wars park, okay? And less people are going to their, or have been historically going to their parks. So they're lowering, excuse me, they're increasing the prices as that surge comes back post-pandemic, okay? Now we're seeing them trying to get into something else, which they do now. They already own a large majority of it for a while. And I don't know if that's the right way to necessarily go. That's a lot of money going out. Maybe they're kind of standardizing some cash flows and that might be positive for the company going forward. But see that more as a stabilization factor than something that's going to bring Disney back up to higher prices, right? And so I'm kind of sitting here, stuck with all these shares at a cost basis that's still below here, but, you know, when you're talking about you had a company that was, you know, above 100 for so long and now we're sitting at 8170, you know, it's not a great look. And so the Hulu thing is not something that I'm, as a stockholder, super excited over. And we'll see what other people think, too. I think they think the same because we're not moving a lot on Disney. Folks, stay tuned. We'll be right back. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, and it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive. He just hosted Forex Strategies and Fundamentals What is Behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights. Your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his Daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text, either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. TFNN Live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Folks, you're at the market open right now. Let's see the ES futures up almost a percent. We're also futures up 1.5 NQs at 1.23. Dow futures up 0.64. The gold contract moving down a little bit. We're at 1993. 3.5% which is pretty decent for them. They had a nice little pull down here. There were some issues at least trying to get the cyber truck out. I think something that's important to note here is just kind of how long how far ahead Tesla is in producing these EVs. They're able to sell them at cheaper prices than these other competitors that are trying to break in. I'm interested in Volkswagen because they are trying out of cheaper EV out in Europe that has not hit American markets. They can make that profitable there for a cheap cost. They may be I wouldn't say a full on competitor with Tesla but someone that can make them kind of make some more moves, right? We take a look at other companies that are trying to break into the EV market and we're talking about Ford in particular, right? And so what Ford is doing is they're trying to essentially reel back in the production of plants, okay? Ford had proposed a $12 billion EV factory in Kentucky. It was basically going to be building, assembling some of the cars but also focusing on building the batteries, okay? They're postponing this, right? They're not backing off on producing the EVs per se but they're backing off on expansion of it in the meantime, okay? I think Tesla just has such a run ahead of all these companies that they kind of have streamlined production for it. Ford's EV business continues to lose money. This is around $1.3 billion this past quarter in adjusted earnings. So far this year Ford has lost about $3.1 billion on its EV spending and said it's going to lose a total of $4 billion the next year. The Kentucky plant which is a mega-campus that builds the lithium-ion batteries for electric cars is going to be put on hold. Ford's not alone in all of this. General Motors is backing back production of its new slate of electric trucks and SUVs. Tesla CEO Elon Musk spent a large chunk of his last earning calls moaning about interest rates. Customers would probably agree most of the early adopters have adopted and the next tier of possible customers has enough sticker shock to keep their wallets closed. Now I think which would be massive when we've seen this in the UK at least but sales for essentially used EVs has actually jumped 81%. So we might see a lot of the consumers coming into EV on the second-hand market, right? This is not really a big thing for the producers themselves because they're not really getting that that kind of pay right there. It's the second-hand sellers who are. So if we look at it that way you're going to have a longer time frame for these companies that are trying to break into EV who have made classic traditional cars with combustion engines that are essentially going to lag in seeing a lot of purchasing of their newer cars, right? So we might be out a few years from that. Ford reached a tentative agreement with the United Auto Workers last night being the first of the big three U.S. automakers to get a deal. Strike cost them around 1.3 billion and the company pulled back its guidance for 2023 based on that. I also think that I still think that Tesla's going to be selling this kind of data as they go forward for autonomous driving. We're seeing more autonomous vehicles popping up in larger cities and that's going to kind of pad the loss that Tesla might get from decreased new EV sales. So and I still think too that the government is pushing this in a major way. There's obviously still a massive tax credit you can get for buying these EV vehicles and they are dumping in a lot of money at least the White Houses for hydrogen production plants. This is for renewable energy in general not necessarily EV that's still going to be you know you charge the batteries I guess with this kind of stuff and then of course the government is trying to push for taking relays to charge a lot of these vehicles and I think the minute we get to that you're going to start seeing a lot of consumers who I think still find like the kind of curve appeal of EVs it's still there right it's just so expensive in an era where I think that you know things people aren't spending as much for that and we've seen that too with people just missing car payments in general I think that's rough for a lot of folks that are getting there obviously that's not a great sign for the economy itself there's a record number of subprime borrowers behind the auto loan payments but more than 60 days a rate hit 6.11% in September and obviously that's just the base so you can go up pretty rough you know I had friends who were paying 15-20% APR on their vehicle which is pretty nuts and we might see more defaults with that the analysts predict that the auto loan delinquencies will continue to rise in 2024 if you get about 10% before they start to fall high rates of delinquencies indicate that many lower earning workers in particular are struggling amid ongoing high inflation a rough jobs market and a resumption of federal student fees so we have this kind of confluence of like positive and negative events for vehicles in general EV vehicles as well that kind of might indicate a slowing acquisition of new EV vehicles in the market in general right I don't think Tesla gets hit that hard by it they still get hit but you definitely see Ford and Dodge and Jeep and everyone trying to get in to this EV spot they get hit pretty hard alright we can take a look at air B and B they've done okay they've lowered for the fourth quarter guidance sadly but they earn 4.4 billion in the third quarter and this is due to tax breaks and higher than expected revenue they still did well regardless of the tax breaks we'll take a look at that in general Wednesday it said to earn 4.37 billion in the third quarter as it booked a large tax benefit and posted higher than expected earnings revenue rose 18% 3.4 billion and the what's important to note as well is they said that excluding the tax benefit the net income would have been 1.6 billion which is up from 1.2 the year prior so they still did well but these kind of positive earnings were magnified because of the tax break the company saw a 14% increase in bookings and that's really what we're looking at so as more people are interacting with it it's again not just because of the tax break and slightly higher and let's expect the San Francisco company to post revenue of 3.37 billion according to a fact survey Airbnb predicted fourth quarter revenues between 2.13 billion and 2.17 and I still see it and again when I talk about what I see other people doing I have a kind of a large array of different people that I interact with all different socioeconomic levels and just different backgrounds and so that's why I know they're anecdotal but when I say I don't see people much I think I have an okay sample size now obviously I'm still in St. Petersburg, Florida so that's a unique spot in general economically speaking and definitely culturally as well but why am I saying all this because I still see people even though things are tough for a lot of people that I know I'm still seeing them spend money on getting Airbnb's go on trips now maybe the trips are you know you don't spend as much I see a lot of people my age I'm 27 and probably on the other side of that as well you go on these trips your largest cash outflow for this is going to be Airbnb okay finding a place to stay and then you do normal stuff that doesn't cost a lot of money you hike you go look at animals maybe you go to a nice dinner every now and then but I still see Airbnb being very strong and a lot of people my age still spending money to get there pretty frequently folks stay tuned we'll be right back tires every Tuesday and Thursday there's a unique insight that he's developed over decades of trading now on Tuesday November 7 from 4 p.m. to 5 30 p.m. Eastern time Tim Ord will be hosting his own live webinar Tim's analysis has been outperforming market returns by almost double and his gold analysis is on track to be a winner as well Tim will be delving into six secret ratios that every trader should know in this webinar Tim will be covering the Daily TLT VIX the Daily and Weekly Spy VIX the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Bear Ratios and the Trin Panic Levels Tim will break down each ratio how it is calculated its importance and how it can help you make bigger returns it's as simple as this learn the ratios trade by them and see your returns that's it visit the front page of TFNN.com today to sign up now TFNN Educating Investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right? like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman the creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave the Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com Educating Investors S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL SPUU or SPXS directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds perspective should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold Vista Gold We're moving up a little bit from what we were pre-open, which is about $105.80, but that's fine. This is a nice crackdown. I don't see us having another fake-out with it. The market loves this. I think the concept that rates might be stabilizing, especially with the Treasury selling less than they had anticipated is positive, and the markets love this. And you ask, Jacob, how could I have known this is when it was going to rip off, when it was going to just pop? Well, I would ask you that. Have you been listening to Tom O'Brien and Tim Ord? Tim Ord is on every Tuesday and Thursday. He's going to be on today, folks. Tim went long on Friday, which was massive. If you did that, you would have made a lot of profit. I want to take a look here. Tim Ord is actually having his own webinar on November 7th. So let's take a look here. And he's going over these key levels that are telling him when he wants to go long, when he wants to go short, and kind of going out of his six secret ratios. This is the Daily TLT VIX, Daily SPY VIX, the Weekly SPX VIX, the Daily VIX over the VIX, American Association of Individual Investors, Bull Bear Ratios, and Trin Panic Levels, which are phenomenal themselves. I've been trying to learn as much as I can when Tim is on, and it's beautiful. Folks, check this out, all right? This is going to be great. This is going to be on November 7th from 4 to 5.30 p.m. Eastern time. And I really recommend you checking him out today on Tom O'Brien's show. So that's what we're looking at. I see this as a positive thing for everything. The environment right now is positive. I think that the market wants things to go up. I still think we have this permable concept. Things are still relatively strong in the U.S. economy. I mean, we're seeing pretty good quarterly growth. Some companies have lowered their expectations for Q4, but not all of them. And I still think we're not in a major burn-down situation right now. If that happens, that's going to be in the next two quarters or three quarters, especially we were talking about with some consumers defaulting on some of their loans. But as it stands now, the companies are doing all right. Speaking of companies that are doing all right, we have Roku. They have blown up themselves. Take a look. Oh, man. It makes your heart hurt when you see that because you wish you were in it. Geez, up 20% right now. Yes. So they've done pretty well. Revenue grew about 20% year over year. Man, look at that. Well, we were kicking subs 60s, and now we're above 70 right now. That is pretty intense. Of course, on the high, on the year today, we had 98. Revenue accounts also beat coming in at 75.8 million for the quarter. Roku said it experienced a rebound in video ads during the period. After the Bell Wednesday, Roku reported actually a net loss of 330 million for the third quarter or 233 per share. The revenue was up 20%, however, year over year, quality over quantity here, largely driven by strong performance in content distribution, in video advertising, along with unit sales of Roku branded TVs. That's the big thing, and I'm actually due to buy a new Roku stick, so maybe I'll get to contribute to this a little bit. Roku branded smart TVs come pre-insolved with Roku interfaces. Users would experience on external plug-in Roku streaming players. Smart TV was first made available best buy earlier this year and drove a device segment revenue increase of 33%, and that is pretty solid for them. I still think they're a big player in kind of that streaming device services. I don't use Roku TV per se. I think Samsung really has the domination in that, excuse me, the dominance in that kind of market, but you keep buying these kind of units just so you can stream Netflix or Apple or whatever, and it's easy. I think, too, they did really well in the beginning, one with their marketing. This is when they really first started, because myself as someone who owns a Roku, and I've had this thing for probably a decade now, and I really need to get a new one, but the point is I don't want to buy anything else. I have no interest in trying out a Fire Stick or Apple TV or whatever when I stick with Roku, and I think there is a lot of brand loyalty in kind of streaming devices, and so I think Roku benefits from that pretty solidly. Taking some more, let me get the ticker up for you. I always eludes me, mainly because I don't trade the company. We're looking at Dash. That's right. It's just Dash. I mean, this is nuts. These are nuts numbers for a lot of these companies here, and I think the market is still looking for somewhere to just put their cash. DoorDash orders surge 24% in the third quarter, helping narrow the delivery app's losses. Powered past sales and earnings expectations in the third quarter, saying a growing mix of stores and faster service is drawing customers in the U.S. and abroad, San Francisco company said that its total orders grew 24% to $543 million, and it still blows my mind that people still use DoorDash. Again, I was saying, I think this is in larger cities. I do see people talking online about it and meme concepts or just complaining about the company itself, but they're never going to not use it, because who doesn't want food just delivered directly to their door? I think the advent of using internet pay has made it easier to kind of separate you and your money. You know, we use DoorDash a lot during basically quarantine, and it can double your order every time. It's unbelievable. Their drivers don't get paid that much. They rely heavily on tips, which is really what drives this kind of increase in price for DoorDash. I mean, you can make something that's $15, end up being $32, all things considered. But people still love it supposedly. I mean, look at this, right? In some of the cafes that I go to, people will be DoorDashing very expensive drinks. I can't even imagine what that cost is, but I guess it has an appeal to certain people. I don't use this company like that, just mainly because I try to watch what I spend. But it seems like a lot of other consumers aren't necessarily concerned with that. The revenue jumped 27% at $2.16 billion, ahead of the $2.09 billion that was expected, and obviously we are trading 16.8% right now. The company said its monthly active users increased at double-digit percentage rates in September, which is insane, and a strong demand from both the U.S. and international markets. Growth and order frequency also accelerated from the second quarter. And it makes you kind of wonder what this economy looks like under the mask, right? Who is out there that is able to spend so much money? I mean, a double-digit increase in monthly active users is insane, right? And maybe that might be one-time users. It would be interesting to know the exact data on that. But you get this conflicting analysis that some people, like, listen, we have Target, okay, and they're saying their consumer market is not spending as much on groceries. They're moving into something like Walmart, right, that offer cheaper groceries. Then you have something like DoorDash, which amplifies the cost of food and eating out, essentially, you know, by almost double. And they're on fire right now. And I wonder, there just must be like these diverging classes in the U.S., and I think young people are the ones who are the participants in this, right? Young people are the ones who are moving away from Target groceries, and young people are also the ones who are spending a ton more money on DoorDash. I think that having a deep kind of, like, I guess, review of this analysis might really kind of elucidate some interesting concepts. Folks say, too, we'll be right back for a very short break. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the U.S. futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now. At TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. Let's take a look at a Shopify on the break. We have a short segment here, but just these wins are insane. This is up 19% right now on significant volume. Wow. It posted a third quarter revenue in line with Wall Street Estimates on Thursday as its artificial intelligence products drew more merchants to its platform. The e-commerce company said total revenue for the three months of September stood at $1.7 billion compared with analysts of estimates of $1.67 billion. I mean, what else do you need to know about that? They were dominant in kind of the e-commerce spot. And congratulations if you were in this before the run-up. I mean, 19.4% is pretty intense. We were talking a little bit in the den, so I was bringing up some stuff about McDonald's. Take a look. This is just a little bit more of your traditional economics class here. But McDonald's and Chipotle are raising menu prices in California next year as fast food wages rise to $20. Obviously, they're raising menu prices to offset the increase in minimum wage. However, the CEO of McDonald's said that the minimum wage hike could help the burger chain gain market share in California in the long term. They haven't decided how much they're going to hike the prices in California as they raise $20. Chipotle did say they're going to raise it by mid to high single digit percent in the state, but it's not made a final decision, which is a pretty significant increase, obviously. Restaurants have been hiking menu prices for more than two years in response to rising ingredient and labor costs. Price for food away from home is up 6% in September compared to a year ago. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, dinners are already used to paying more for their meals. Some have been eating out less often to mind their budget. McDonald's executive said Monday that consumers making under $45,000 have been visiting less frequently contributing to a dip in the U.S. traffic this quarter. And honestly, I mean, McDonald's is expensive now. Like it's not your cheap, you know, let me pay a buck for a burger or anything. That's another story that will be interesting for kids who are, you know, in business school, you know, they were having that issue with people not wanting to go for them. And it was more of the image, right? Nobody wanted to be unhealthy. And so to try to combat that, they introduced a lot of new burgers and sandwiches that were like eight or nine bucks. I mean, look, we're healthy. Nobody feels that way about your company. McDonald's. Just make yourself look cool yet or something. Folks, thank you so much for joining me today. We have a replay of Basil up next and I'll be with you on Friday as well. Take care.


Hello, it is Sunday the 13th of February. I hope you are doing well and welcome to the look ahead for the week And I'm going to encapsulate a couple of the key things of where we really finished last week Which will still be very much dominant factors for the week ahead namely that what's going on with Russia and also that of Rate pricing given the surprisingly high inflation reading we had last week from the US and this balance between whether or not the Fed are Going to hike 50 so going to get up to speed on those two themes There's some other things as well Goldman Sachs revised down their S&P forecast over the weekend We've got updates on the Iranian deal Brexit update You've also got a lot of data coming out this week namely from the states We have retail sales industrial production and FMC minutes and then from the UK You've got jobs data inflation data and retail sales as well all on the docket So plenty for me to get you up to speed on don't forget as well If you're not already subscribed to the YouTube channel hit that subscribe button and press the bell Icon to be notified whenever new content comes out, but look let's get straight into this and talk about this story right here, which is the latest on Russia and President Joe Biden had spoken to the Ukrainian leader On Sunday so today and said the US and its allies would act quite swiftly and Decisively if Russia was to invade Ukraine and this comes after an hour long call between these two characters here Biden and Putin they spoke on Saturday the Kremlin characterized their conversations as business-like and Balanced nothing really material coming out of their conversations Of course, this comes after US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan You might have heard this late on Friday when oil really went bid and equities were Softening up a bit going into the clothes and this came after he told a White House briefing that there were signs of Russian Escalation at the Russian bore or Ukrainian border and Sullivan said it's possible an invasion could occur During the Olympics despite speculation on the contrary and of course this comes after the mass troop Buildup that we've seen in the risk of a military incursion over the border from Russia into Ukraine So oil prices as I mentioned got a kick up Towards the back end of last week and we we jumped over 94 bucks briefly in futures market if I put on a weekly bar just to put in a bit of context then on to the Multi-year picture really if I look over here on this this ellipse. This is the 2014 price action We of course ran into a bit of a short-term resistance last week up at around those highest levels in several years back to late 2014 the latest news on Friday puts us above there and obviously as we continue to watch this situation very closely Any more material escalation could well see further bid come into energy and Psychologically $100 obviously resides at around $6.10 above the current price where we close in the futures market on Friday And then you've got the peak of the price activity we were seeing of 2014 which would come up at 107 42 so can't discount these of course, however personally, I think that there's a little bit of Curation on behalf of the US really just given just the massive headache that that's happening at the moment with Biden He's being assaulted on so many different fronts at the moment. I think he needs to sound tough against Russia Personally, I think the the risk of an incursion from Russia Is is somewhat limited? I think they're doing this is all just part of a leverage play just to make Europe honest about just keeping a the status quo in terms of NATO's Involvement in the lights of Ukraine But also that of the Nord Street to pipelines didn't play as well And we all know that really Putin holds a lot of the cards here. So I do see The the forceful invasion into Ukraine as somewhat a lower probability in my opinion But nonetheless anything to the contrary would of course see likely quite a dramatic further increase in the price of energy products in General particularly gas prices as well as oil Ukraine's foreign minister actually downplayed board of tensions with Russia this weekend saying that there's been no pivotal change in the outlook German Chancellor Olaf Schultz meets with Putin on Tuesday This comes after Macron of course was with Putin last week Schultz aides has said he has not given up hope that diplomacy can avert a war Although they are playing down expectations of any breakthrough and I'd probably agree with with that Not really looking for for a breakthrough at this point in time But of course this is going to be a hot story to watch So we'll continue to watch that with great vigilance and of course can as you saw on Friday Be very important for overall multi-asset class kind of sentiment more specifically Otherwise just before I move on don't forget to check out the Amplify me.com Slash Market hyphen maker that gives you access then to our daily market newsletter Which I put out at the end of every European trading day I'll drop the link on this video But feel free to subscribe to that if you want to be kept up to speed with all the latest things in markets But elsewhere we do have the Iran update Russia's top diplomat At the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna said world powers have made quote significant progress as their negotiations to revive a Landmark 2015 agreement enter the final stage However in other news I've just read this evening a senior Iranian security official has said that progress in talks to salvage that deal have become more difficult as Western powers only pretend to come up with initiatives So I think we've been here so many times before where it looks like they make progress But inevitably it stumbles at the final kind of passage kind of feel like I'm siding with that again at the moment and I'd say on the balance although Any type of deal would certainly be more perceived to be bearish for oil prices at the moment on the hierarchy of Kind of major themes in play the Russian Ukraine story is definitely more dominant at this present point in time Elsewhere other weekend needs to be aware of as I mentioned briefly Goldman Sachs have lowered their forecast for US stock market returns for this year in the S&P now to 1900 they were previously penciling in 5100 by the end of the year the prospect of aggressive monetary tightening Essentially weighing on valuations is the summation of their rationale They said though and this is the kind of extremity of that view on the bullish and bearish case that if inflation remains high and prompts to Fed to hike more than currently anticipated the S&P 500 could decline by 12% to 3900 or even slumped to 3600 if the tightening tips the economy into a session Their strategists warned Goldman Sachs as a reference point are currently looking for a rate hike at every meeting of this year So seven going forward by contrast if inflation recedes So this is the other side of that that call if it recedes inflation faster and fewer hikes are needed The benchmark could rally to 5500 in their most bullish case scenarios gives you a bit of perspective there again The base case now downgraded to four thousand nine hundred for the spools Other things to be mindful of of course lots of Movement in short-term rates and yields in the US following that red hot inflation number that we saw So the latest commentary that we've had comes from feds daily Who is a non-voter the head of the San Francisco Fed as she said it is paramount for the central bank to be measured and data Dependent as it starts lifting US interest rates to ensure stability But she did reiterate that she does favor the commencement of the first rate hike at the March FOMC meeting Bit of perspective city-deutcher. They're both backing 50 basis points I think credit Suisse is the same HSBC as well leaning on the 50 side But daily appears to be much more skeptical And has suggested there is little need to start a cycle being increases with such an aggressive move So although she's saying yes, we should go in March She's kind of leaning more on the 25 basis point side of things Markets, how are they priced at the moment? So lots of fluctuation of this of course after inflation number It briefly got up to 95 percent. We saw that fade through Friday and we're currently now Priced at around 50 50 for a 50 basis point rate hike in March So hike is definitely happening to what size is really up in the air at the moment Of course ahead of that mid-March FOMC meeting. We do get one more inflation reading There's some other important data points coming out the US still lots of playful there to determine really the outcome of this One thing to be aware of the St. Louis Fed president James Bullard the one who's the most hawkish He does speak on CNBC's squawk box Eastern time in the morning and the reason why I'm bringing this to attention is that he surprised markets last Thursday with his calls for the Fed funds rates to be at a hundred basis points higher by July Which would be akin to kind of 50 and some thereafter to squeeze that many basis points in over that shorter period of time So he's gonna be speaking again on Monday. You have Mester Speaking on Thursday and then Waller Williams and Brainard the vice chair and she is speaking on US monetary policy They will all be on Friday in terms of Fed speakers Elsewhere ECB just following in soup what we've had from Christine the guard the president last week You've had the head of the Irish central bank this chap here And he has said over the weekend and an FT exclusive that investors are wrong to bet on eurozone interest rates rising in June Predicting that policymakers will be careful to avoid killing off the recovery He added ECB could stop its net bond purchases in June or a few months later and would only raise rates after that So continues to just kind of reaffirm the points that were made from the guard from last week Then on Brexit kind of similar to what we had last week The UK a signal that could accept custom controls on goods destined only for sale in Northern Ireland It's first significant concession during months of talks of Brussels over those post-Brexit training arrangements But in terms of really the the focus for for this week I would say much more for the UK will be on the data side of things And the reason for that is we do have quite a bit of UK data coming out So just to quickly run you through the calendar on Tuesday You've got the unemployment data employment change to the UK UK CPR Wednesday UK retail sales coming Friday From a top level the unemployment rate is expected to tick down once again to to 4% from previous 4.1 So it's virtually where it was pre virus now CPR Wednesday probably the highlight of the three is expected to remain at 5.4% in January That does match then the 30 year high that we printed at the end of 2021 However, the impact of that reading might well be somewhat debatable Given the general kind of path and direction of where inflation is heading Most know that it's going to go further north for the time being and is set to peak close to 7% in April When of course those electricity price hike start to feed through as well So even though that number is going to be obviously a three decade high Maintaining at that level is probably not going to rock the market a great deal or the perception on rates Or that of the price of sterling in the intraday market given the fact that we're already there And we're already likely to go considerably higher in the months ahead Then retail sales for the UK on Friday should see a bit of a bounce back. We had a very disappointing figure at the last month in terms of the end of 2021 It was almost like that figure was somewhat partially impacted I guess by the emergence of the Omicron situation, but also the front-loading of Unseasonably early of Christmas shopping, which then meant that a lot of that was front-loading in October November Which caused me to a weak figure So I'll look for a bit of an uptick there, but again the future looks like household incomes are going to be Stretched the cost of living is going up as we just mentioned with inflation Particularly these electricity price is going to kick in as well in the months to come So any positivity on the retail side? I don't think it's really going to have a meaningful impact For sterling this week and if my US perspective quite busy Tuesday You get PPI data coming out and again expected to be pretty hot It's expected at 9.1 percent year-on-year, but that is down from 9.7 if that were the case That we saw in December if it comes in in line And then on Wednesday you get from the US retail sales industrial production Unless that ing note that retail sales has been soft in recent months But auto sales jumped in January and should ensure a decent overall gain However outside of that component sales growth is like to be softer given the Omicron variant clearly had a detrimental impact on Consumer behavior with a notable drop-off in restaurant dining Air passenger numbers and mobility in areas of retail and recreation as well As far as the industrial production number is concerned Analysts expect that to be kind of okay The cold weather in January set to boost utility output as people try to just generally heat their homes given those weather conditions And then Wednesday night we do get the Fed minutes So as per usual looking out for any new insights on the plans for rate hikes the inflation outlook any commentary on the balance sheet Discussions these types of things will be at the forefront of investors minds and even earnings perspective just to kind of wrap things up Not really too much going on There's obviously a lot of companies but nothing from a major weighted index point of view But a couple that I'm looking at for the for the coming days is going to be Roblox and Airbnb quite interested in just although they're smaller companies Just giving us some of the focus on the metaverse and recent IPOs Nvidia is also reporting after market on Wednesday and that follows the collapse of the deal that we saw from SoftBank and arm last week and then you've got the Retailer Walmart reporting pre-market on Thursday as well Which I'm always quite interested to watch their numbers when they hit the tape But that is it so I'll let you get to it and wish you a good week ahead Any questions at all feel free to drop me a comment and I will see you for the next session. All right. Take care