You're right guys. Can you can you guys hear me? Can you hear me? All right, brilliant brilliant brilliant. So What I want to do is I just want to say To everyone that can hear me. Please mute your mics. Please make sure your mics are muted Make sure all your mics are muted and you don't need to turn on your Your your your video either So I'm gonna get started now welcome to day one of the two-day Webinar right guys, please mute your mics.  Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, right? Welcome to the first date of the two-day webinar with myself and I'm gonna be covering The free step to generating profitable trade ideas Yeah, I'm gonna have a Q&A at the end of the webinar. So any questions you do have I'm going to You can ask them then I will do a bit of a learning check as well. So At the end of each slide because there are some a bit of kind of complex Fundamentals that you know, I'm trying to simplify and not everyone's gonna follow Probably due to language barriers, etc. So from that perspective I'm gonna try to make sure that everyone is following along at least the majority of people are following along After, you know, a certain period of time after you've covered a certain step and any questions you do have please type it in the chat box and I'll try and just recover it just in case and make sure you're all following So day one is with me today right now, which we're gonna get started in a sec But a day two is gonna be with Mark Chapman and he's gonna be Covering really the the market makers and really identifying the footprints of the market makers And it's not anything like you know what you see on on YouTube or TikTok or anything like that It's totally it's real the real business model, right? It's not the theoretical side of things and I do have Mark here with me Mark if you want to unmute your mic and And give them a little bit about what they'll be getting tomorrow as well Hello, hello, hello guys. Yep. Can you let me know if you guys can hear me? Okay? Yep Yeah, it's coming through fine. Yeah, everyone saying yes 67 people on the call. That's awesome.  Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're back here Hey guys, sorry about that.  I'll be holding a class on the footprints of the market Wales and how you can learn To see where they are in the markets and how you can position yourself to Trade alongside them and today is all about the fundamentals and Leon's gonna Go over the three steps for generating profitable trade ideas. It's it. It's massively helpful Even if you do understand the institutional trading strategies To still have a fundamental bias To then go on to a chart with an idea of where you want to be trading in terms of directional bias Prior to then deploying those institutional Strategies in the market. Just it makes a great trader a super trader So I hope you enjoyed today's session tomorrow session will be with me 8 p.m. London exactly the same time and we'll be going over Essentially How you can see the big money liquidity providers essentially the market makers I'm going to be talking about before being able to see them You've got to understand how to interpret order flow in the market actual order flow not footprint charts or the various types of trading software out there that supposedly shows you Order flow on on your trading platform quite the opposite. This is the purest version of it How to actually understand the mechanics of price action and then once you sort of got the grasp of that I'm going to be introducing you to the idea that the market is indeed an option and from there we can then see learn to understand and see where The big market makers liquidity providers are positioned in the markets and I'm going to actually show you their number one Number one footprint. So I'll look forward to Seeing you guys tomorrow. Have a great session today And yeah, I'll I'll see you guys tomorrow enjoy tonight. Yeah, thanks Mark. Much appreciated much appreciated and Enjoy guys. So let's get started because I know many of you were depending on where you are in the world It's probably late, you know, I had a few people message me saying that it's like, you know, two three in the morning and stuff like that So I'll try and get this Fly through it but in a sense of you know, like I said no man left behind or at least a majority of you Anyway, can follow along, right? So First things first again for those of you who have just come in please ensure that your mics are off remain off and That you don't you know turn on your video And yeah, we'll just keep it like that. And yeah, any questions will leave them either to the end or whenever we Come to maybe the end of a certain section and I'll ask if there's anything that you were not understanding And I try and go over it again, right? So hopefully I should cover this within the next hour Also, and then maybe the Q&A might last a little longer. But anyways, let's get into it So please note as well, it's not necessary to know everything about fundamental analysis We can literally go down the rabbit hole when it comes to fundamental analysis There's so many things to learn and it's not important to know everything about everything, right? What I'm trying to do is I'm gonna get you to the place where you literally just focus on what is the most Important to make your trading decisions as well as what really moves the market. Yeah, that is what is the most important thing Yeah, so we're gonna eliminate the noise ignore the distractions and really focus on what the Central banks the financial institutions institutional flow, you know, what they're mainly focused on Yeah, and what they are focused on overall. Yeah, so let's get into it Hi, hi everyone So is this how you trade fundamental analysis fundamental analysis is really touted online as going to Forex factory and Looking at news releases and then buying and selling based off of whether it was expected or whether it wasn't expected, right? and So that is not fundamental analysis that is not how to trade fundamental analysis, you know I think probably maybe 99% of you know Videos and by the way, I've been around for a little while. I've probably watched, you know, all of the videos That's a all of the videos, but that's a bit of an exaggeration but I've worked many of the videos that you guys have watched on YouTube back in the day and I have a little browse on YouTube from every now and then to see if the quality has changed and to be fair from when I started trading back in 2012-2013 Nothing's really changed apart from maybe technical strategies And the technical strategies are a dime a dozen, right? But this is not how you trade Fundamental analysis if it was we'd all be trillionaires, right? Anybody can, you know, buy and sell Good news and bad news, but we're all here, right? We all understand that there's obviously more to it than just doing this no matter what, you know, someone on YouTube says It's not this isn't necessarily fundamental analysis trading but what is is Really identifying currency divergences and Differentials it is the most it's really important that you understand this concept Yeah, so currencies as we know pretty much currency trading one-on-one is Currencies are trading in trading in pairs But how it's not viewed or what people may not know or maybe just kind of disregard is that in fact it is a Straight one-on-one fight. Yeah So It's a straight one-on-one fight You know, it's it's really about Which currency is appreciating or strong? Versus a currency that is weak or depreciating. Yeah, and what we want to do in currency when we're developing a trade idea Is look for divergences or differential so divergence really is In case you don't you English isn't the greatest. It's really to understand that divergence is Where I guess currencies are moving or extending in different directions Yeah, differentials is just the difference between the two But what's more important than differentials is the divergence right and I'm going to show you pretty much the three steps So when we have a strong divergence, yeah As far as you know a really strong currency or an appreciating currency Versus a depreciating currency or a weak currency That's where you get Trending price. Yeah, and when you have a weak divergence. Yeah So for example, there are two strong currencies versus maybe two weak currencies or two Appreciating currencies versus to depreciating currencies. That's where you generally have I guess what mark would call more of an auction You might you might know it as a ranging market sideways moving market and accumulation phase, etc Right, but it's really where you get non trending price over a certain period now I'm talking about as well Applying fundamentals to the medium to long term Price action shot in the short term and you know for for a day or for a week. Yeah Fundamentals and I guess I'll get into this maybe a bit later But fundamentals can still be applied But you have to have more the medium to longer term bias medium to long term meaning, you know a month to maybe three months six months Time horizon right because in the short term as mark will go over tomorrow There's there's liquidity, you know The market generally is looking for liquidity market makers pricing fair value auctions, etc You'll find out, you know tomorrow, but from a macro perspective a macro economic perspective You know, this is what we're looking towards the big trends. Yeah, and so Step one is really if it is really identifying interest rate divergence Yeah, if you want a shortcut if you want a shortcut as to understand Which currency you should be buying against which currency you should be selling as far as divergence is It's looking at interest rate divergence. Yeah, must look at interest rate divergences and All fun all roads lead to interest rates. Yeah meaning what that means is is that? You've got you know many different macro economic data points. For example, you've got retail sales You've got home buying you've got Hello guys, please can you mute your mics? If you don't mute your mic and you keep you know repeat offending I'm gonna kick you from the from the from from the call So please just ensure that your mic is is muted. Please please Justice Kofi ensure that your mic is muted if you don't mute your mic and you keep disrupting I'm going to kick you right, so All roads lead to Interest rates, so there are many different data points that we look at for example on on Forex factory but all roads lead to what the central bank is going to do with interest rates yeah, and central banks manage and influence currency valuation right meaning they either want to appreciate or depreciate the currency or Keep it the valuation as it is by either increasing decreasing or holding Interest rates. Yeah, so all roads lead to what the central bank is going to do whether you're looking at like I said retail sales Whether you're looking at manufacturing whether you're looking at producer prices index whether you're looking at employment unemployment all roads lead to All those roads lead to what the central bank is going to do So if you wanted to the shortest cut shortest way to understand which way you should be buying or selling is Look at what the central bank is doing with or central banks are doing with their With their interest rates and it really in case you don't know an increase in interest rates It's come and see appreciation and a decrease in In in an interest rates is is tends to lead to currency Depreciation yeah, not saying that you know price is gonna go up every single day every single week every single, you know Month for example, right? It's a bit more complex than that But the general part for least resistance will be currency appreciation if they high crates and if they cut rates Then you should see currency depreciation yeah now Interest rates in just in case you don't know think about it like this is Obviously interest rates is the return that you get for depositing your money in a bank. Yeah So an increase in rates is basically the yield that you're gonna receive for depositing You know money into your bank accounts. I think about it like this where you have two banks on the high street Yeah, and one is offering five percent Interest rate so, you know, you're looking to you know put your savings somewhere One is offering five percent one is offering one percent. Everyone's gonna go to Where they're gonna get the most yield right the most return on there on there on their money So the demand for the higher rate. Yeah in simple terms will cause You know demand which the demand will cause, you know, the currency appreciation And it's the same thing in currency land when you're looking at it from an international investor perspective Investors generally will put their money into certain currencies or into all currencies, right? And so if you have a Central bank, right or a currency that is, you know, giving you, you know, maybe four percent So to hold that currency versus another currency that is, you know, offering you maybe zero percent Yeah, the money is gonna flow into the one that is The higher interest rate. Yeah, so Again, the shortcut is really to listen or to read central bank statements and news articles To determine what central banks are likely to do with interest rates Yeah, whether they're likely to hike hike hold or cut. So raise interest rates cut interest rates or Or or or cut interest rates, right? So that's the shortcut of it all. Yeah But you might be thinking well, what determines the central bank's decision to hike hold or cut rates How do we get ahead of the central banks? How do we know when they are going to do it or when they're likely to do it? So step two Yeah, is understanding The business cycle gross domestic product business cycle so divergences and differentials Yeah, it's really important to understand it. So gross domestic product is the value of an economy's goods and services. Yeah, and The GDP and I guess the business cycle can be described as Having phases. So we have the boom contraction recession bust slump recovery Expansion and then back to boom again and it literally goes round and round and round in circles So boom contraction recession bust slump recovery expansion boom contraction and that is really the cycle Yeah, and it's important to understand that in the recovery or expansion or boom phase of the business cycle Yeah, business and currency demand increases. So look at it like this If you're again an international investor, yeah, and you want to invest in certain economies You know, you've got, you know certain businesses that you want to set up for example And you're thinking what should I go to Europe or should I go to the UK? Yeah Now the UK have got you know, we're in the maybe the expansion or the boom phase, right? There's lots of demand. There's growth there, you know Businesses are growing etc. My people are spending money people are borrowing lending etc. Right economies doing really really good Versus setting up for example in Europe where they may be heading into a recession Right where they're heading into a recession where people are not spending money businesses are going bust and you know There's not too much going on, right? We all know what recessions and bust slump, you know, feels like right We went through it just with you know, COVID in 2020, right? So where are you likely to place your money and I guess it's a rhetorical question But it's going to be everyone's going to flood into the economy where you've got growth Yeah, and that creates not only business demand, but it creates Currency demand because in order to do business in that currency. Yeah, you're gonna have to buy it Right, you're gonna have to buy that currency. So from that perspective You can see the divergences. So what you ultimately in the differentials, I guess so ultimately what you want to try to do The first step you want to do is look towards is understanding Where a country potentially is? Sorry in its business cycle is it growing is it in the recovery expansion boom phase of the business cycle Or is it heading into a recession bus slump cycle of the business of the business cycle and you can find out literally just by Reading, you know the news looking at the data, right? So GDP business cycle divergences. Yeah So remember this central banks typically increase Increase interest rates during the recovery expansion and the boom phases of the economic cycle Yeah, and central banks will typically decrease interest rates during contraction recession bus slump phases of the economic cycle So when we're talking about again divergences or differentials, yeah once we know where a Where an economy is? Yeah, then we kind of have a clue as to what the central bank is Typically going to do whether they're going to hold or hike Yeah, when the economy is doing really good or in that recovery expansion phase and they're likely to potentially cut rates during, you know, economic downturns contractions bustle slump phases, right so many of you obviously, you know, I Would have obviously been they paying attention to COVID, right? But how many of you, you know, we're paying attention to what the central bank was doing, you know During that time in you know in 2020 in March and what central banks did with interest rates Yeah, they literally they the central banks all around the world Started to cut interest rates Yeah So just as a as a rule of thumb, yeah meaning that just what typically happens We know if the central bank or the economy is heading into a recession Yeah, potentially they generally want to cut rates and if we are and if an economy is Expanding or in the recovery of the boom phase Then central banks will typically Increase interest rates so you can look for again the divergence, right? So GDP business cycle divergence differentials that is What we need to do in a really kind of simplified Form, yeah, there's everyone is everyone following along Yeah, the majority of you are following along Then I will continue one if there's maybe one or two that are not unfortunately. I'm going to have to just continue Everyone's following along you can type yes Why in the chat box all clear brilliant all good all good probably excellent welcome probably Thomas Excellent all right brilliant brilliant brilliant brilliant brilliant so Divergencies and differentials that is you know, and it's not me saying this by the way It's not my theory. This is you know economic period. These are these this is the rules to the fundamental game. Yeah so Here's an example, right of the of GDP business cycle and it gets divergence and differentials and what we are looking at is the Euro dollar, right the most traded forex pair now Look at what happened, I guess from from really from from last year, right from 2021 over the whole year now from really from from January 2021 to really this year We had some negative growth, right in in Europe and you know, we did get a little bit of growth But then we kind of came back to zero point three percent. Yeah, so you can see We had some negative growth two quarters of Of negative growth is deemed as a recession, right? So Europe were in a recession. Yeah Technically and then came out of it, but then had some pretty much a I guess Limited growth very weak growth economic growth, right when you compared that compared that to The dollar the US dollar You saw the US dollar around January February March April and new all these quarters, right? We had growth four point five percent six point three percent six point seven percent two point three six point nine was the most recent The most recent Reading right percentage so you can see yeah the difference between the two Yeah, so obviously the one you should have been looking to buy Yeah, is the dollar and you're looking to sell the euro Yeah That is the difference that there's differentials and divergences and sometimes you won't know you might necessarily get a divergence Where they where they're moving in different directions, but if you can see the differentials That is also what will help you to make one of the steps to make you Understand what the central bank is likely to do with Interest rates because that is what is most important What is the central bank likely to do with the valuation of the currency are they looking to high crates? Which means appreciating the currency or are they looking to cut rates? Which is going to be to depreciate and devalue the currency. Yeah, so this is one of the steps now the second step and step number three I guess is Inflation and this is where a lot of traders tend to have Maybe a bit of trouble Understanding the impact of inflation on on on what the central bank is going to do And how it factors in right, so let me just I know Richard and Patricia is new you're out to the new to the newer to the new Attendees we've just joined just a quick I guess housekeeping just make sure that your mics are off and that your videos are off as well and Yeah, I'm gonna have a Q&A pretty much at the end of the webinar and welcome by the way So the inflation divergence Differentials right so inflation is the currencies purchasing power. Yeah, and actually rising inflation Yeah, equals currency depreciation and devaluation Yeah, now many people think that inflation means an increase in value. No, in fact It's the absolute opposite. Yeah, and I think that they've deliberately labeled and I say they but the you know, there's the smart money, I guess have deliberately labeled and mislabeled the What inflation really is In a sense that you know to confuse the general public just my conspiracy theory But inflation is actually the devaluation of the currency. So can you guys see? my Pen tool I'm trying something. Can you see that you see that guys? Can you just just type a yes. Yeah, yeah, brilliant. Excellent, right? so inflation Right, so inflation INF Right, in fact means devaluation Yeah, or depreciation stroke depreciation So for my right and I'm on I'm on a I'm on a track pad at the moment, right? So that's what inflation means. It's the higher that the higher that inflation goes right from you know from zero To one what's supposed to be a Zero but let's say zero percent. Yeah, these all percentages one percent two percent three percent is the more devalued your currency is so your purchasing power is decreasing in value. Yeah, and so Falling inflation means that current the currency is a is actually appreciating. Yeah, so if the currency is going from for example for To three to two to one. In fact, it's actually Appreciating yeah, it's getting more expensive. So if there's there's some inverses here. Yeah, so Yeah, I know Lawrence don't worry. I've got that. I've got it. Thanks Yeah, so so just understand that inflation means devaluation depreciation. Yeah, so rising inflation Means your currency is getting more and more devalued. Yeah Now falling inflation. Yeah Means that your currency is getting is appreciating. Yeah So your currency is getting more expensive and what can happen. Yeah is where you have deflation Right, so you've got deflation DF Right, and that actually is appreciation P See oh My writing is okay. Hope you guys can read it appreciation. All right, so it's getting more expensive right So with that being said, yeah Rising inflation devalued deflation is actually appreciation So inflation.  It started their video. Please turn it off. I find out who it is. You're gonna get kicked if you don't turn it off Sorry guys one second right, um right so With that being said Just disturbing the flow of the webinar Right, so Where was I inflation is influenced by other countries, right? So central banks try to control inflation. Yeah via interest rates Yeah, and inflation is influenced so you know rising and falling is inflation is really influenced by Other countries currency valuations, right? So for example their GDP and their interest rate policy as well as supply and demand QE commodity scarcity Supply chain and wage growth, etc. So think about it like this if inflation is going higher. Yeah, if inflation is going higher Yeah, what does the what does the central bank have to do? To interest rates, so if that's inflation and this is interest rates Yeah, and remember a hike in interest rates does what it appreciates the currency Yeah, so appreciate can't be asked to write it all out. Yeah, but if this is for example zero, that's one That's two. That's three. Yeah, and that's four Yeah, if inflation is going higher meaning it's being devalued to count to that devaluation. Yep as a sabi has As said in the private and as well as a art draft Yeah, exactly. They have to look to do what they have to hike rates exactly. Yeah, so the higher inflation goes or devalues They have to then start to appreciate the currency by hiking interest rates from one to two to three to four.  So the more inflation goes higher Is the more you have to hike rates? Yeah That is how they counter inflation That is exactly how they counter inflation and it's the same thing When you have Deflation so appreciation Yeah, they have to actually end up cutting rates to devalue the currency Everyone following everyone following so far. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah Brilliant brilliant brilliant everyone following brilliant fantastic So that's what You need to understand when it comes to because at the moment we're in an environment where you know We're suffering with high inflation, right? I think I think what was it the last reading was 7.5% in the US Something like that. It's crazy. So as you guys know What are the what is the Federal Reserve looking to do with? With interest rates everyone knows this right they're looking to hike interest rates. It's no mystery The higher inflation goes it forces or it's one of the factors that forces The central bank to have to appreciate the currency because at the moment, you know The US if you're living in the US your your currency is being devalued, you know at the moment by 7.5% Yeah, so these again are the this is the rules to the game guys This is not, you know, some you know Leon making it up or whatever it is This is what the banks look at they look at GDP and they look at Inflation, right? So here in fact Let me give you a bit of a question. Yeah, because many people do get this get this wrong in their understanding So a chocolate bar or whatever. Yeah, but a chocolate bar costs one pound last year the chocolate bar in 2022 has gone up by 10 pence. So it now costs one pound 10 pence has the value of the currency Appreciated in value increased in value or has it Depreciated as it devalued Q says devalued and End says decreased depreciated devalued decreased devalued hmm Excellent anybody think anybody think It should the currency has actually appreciated in value Everyone says pretty much devalued Brilliant guys brilliant. Excellent. So you're understanding this excellent. Welcome Ken Um So, yeah brilliant and the reason why is because it takes more of that currency Yeah to buy a chocolate bar Yeah, if it only cost you one pound but now it cost you one pound ten It is taking more of those pounds to buy the same chocolate bar So in fact your currency is being devalued. That's exactly it Yeah, and you get you can get into things like, you know hyperinflation Yeah, lax says only understanding because you're explaining it so well did not before all brilliant lax. Thank you. Thank you very much Yeah, brilliant. Excellent. So this is what inflation is. Yeah, this is what inflation means devalued depreciation Yeah, and on the other end just to go over it quickly If this is interest rate hikes Yeah, these are hikes because you're increasing you're going from one to two to three three to four on this end You've got negative interest rates, which we've just pretty much come out of right in certain countries certain countries still have it So minus one minus two minus three for example Yeah, what that is Yeah, and deflation would be for example minus one minus two Minus three Yeah, and remember deflation is currency Appreciation so as the currency gets more expensive and appreciates remember cuts if this is an appreciation Cuts mean devalued or a depreciation, right? That's a depreciation So if inflation is getting is appreciating the central bank then has to go into Negative interest rates if they don't have any more interest rates to cut because they might go from two to one from one to zero Yeah But if inflation or you know inflation goes to deflation for example, yes to keep it keeps appreciating Then what happens is the same thing They're gonna have to keep cutting in order to try to bring the I guess deflation back To and really the central banks Target right inflation rate every year is actually 2% Yeah, so when inflation is at 2% central banks will hold rates generally Yeah, that's they are mandated. Yeah, and I'll get into that in the next slide 2% inflation is what central banks are mandated to try to get inflation to Why they see that as They see that as the As acceptable it's almost like the Goldilocks economy where you know in in in our current form and what we have They think that 2% is really not too hot not too cold, right when it comes to currency Appreciation and depreciation But just understand that that they are they are mandated generally to 2% some central banks around maybe 2.5% I've seen even 3% but the ones that are Generally in the currencies that we trade You know, maybe the G10 including, you know, the New Zealand dollar It's usually around about 2% to maybe 2.5% is what their mandate is. Yeah That's what it is. So Whenever you have an appreciating currency and deflation Generally central banks will cut rates. Yeah, and when you have Inflation that is going higher meaning devalue Central banks will try to appreciate so it's always they're always trying to counter Yeah, they're always trying to counter the devaluation of you know of their currency or the appreciation of their currency Can it be 2% in in different insight? Yeah, it can be it can be not every kind because China is a different A total at the whole different story, right? They people's Bank of China. They pretty much set their rates, right? Now I don't think I have a free they don't have a free floating currency But that's getting something else as long as you guys understand this. Yeah, as long as you guys understand this This is what is going to generate you trade ideas Forever right forever and a day as long as we have currencies long as we have central banks long as we have the current system This is how it is done. This is how it is done and I've got some of the guys in the room from my from my Private discord group and they will tell you you know if you ever speak to them I've been doing this a long time and Yeah, it's pretty much. That's what we do week in week out month in month out year in year out Yeah, generate these ideas Right so as long as you have Growing inflation, I'm sorry growing inflation, but you also have GDP growing at the same time Yeah, you've got to have both GDP is growing Inflation is above that 2% target. Yeah, then central banks will typically hike rates That's exactly what they're going to typically do and once you understand that you can get ahead of the central banks and start to Position yourselves to either go long or short because you're gonna find one current Central bank that is looking to potentially hike rates and another one that is going to either look into cut rates I'll just keep rates as they are. Yeah, so there are a Few divergences that we can look towards. Yeah, so you're you want to buy the currency that is hiking rates Versus one that is holding rates and preferably one that is cutting rates because there's a gap there there's a differential there between a hike and a hold and an even bigger gap between a hike and A cut. Yeah, and that's when when when you see, you know, hiking holding Cutting. Yeah, when you see when you can See central banks that are really diverging in their monetary policy. Yeah, that's where you get Those trending markets either to the downside or to the upside Yeah, depending on which is the base of the quote currency, so again, we're gonna do a bit of a learning check for everyone One second clear all the drawings. You're right, Dan. Just mute your mic. I'll mute it for you. Thanks, Dan Welcome by the way. So again the rules to the game here are the rules to the game The central bank has an inflation target of 2% right, so they're mandated Yep They're mandated. That's the line in the sand. That's that's this is the target. I guess. Yeah, so 2% target By the way, if you don't believe me on any of this, you can always Google it, right? Well, the Google is your friend Right, so that's the target 2% now if inflation is above the 2% target Yeah, and trending away from Their 2% target you will have, you know a rate rise a rate hike Yeah, and if you have inflation that is above the 2% target, but trending towards Their target they genuinely will hold rates central banks. Yeah They don't like to Really mess with interest rates. They don't like it because it can have and hiking hold and cutting rates can can have Positive effects on the economy, but it can also have negative effects If you get if they get it wrong if they hike too much or if they cut too much Yeah, because of borrowing and lending spending etc. Yeah, so, you know, I Give an example imagine if interest rates. Yeah, we're like at 10% right now How would that affect your business? How would that affect, you know, borrowing and lending if you know? Interest rates were at 10 15% right now Kill you, right?  Right. Exactly. It's bad That's exactly it Q bad for GDP, right? So it's not that they don't want to they don't like To hike or cut in fact, they would prefer to hold Yeah, they would they would prefer to hold and they they they really they really kind of hike or cut rates You know when they they are really kind of forced to yeah, they were they're really forced to so just as a rule of thumb Central banks would try to hold rates for you know for as long as they can Yeah, until they're really kind of forced to again look at what's happening with the US and the Federal Reserve, right? Pretty much they keep increasing their their projected hikes. Yeah for the US dollar Before it was like I remember when it was they were gonna maybe do it three times Then it's turned to four times then it's turned to five times and now it's turned to well instead of hiking You know 25 basis points or you know 0.25 percent now they got a hike 0.5 percent, you know I mean because they were they increasing they're constantly increasing it because Inflation and we'll see it in a minute. It's constantly kept rising Yeah Asabi says hi highly on the third bullet point. Please. Can you read and explain it? Yeah, I'm gonna get to that in a sec Yeah, I'm gonna get to that in a sec. So so if inflation Yeah, is above the 2% target and trending towards the 2% target.  They're just gonna leave inflation to do what it does because it's coming back to their 2% target Yeah, does that make sense? I'm sorry. I think that's the third point or is that always one two three Or do you want to talk about if inflation is below the 2% target, right?  Yeah from 1 to 0 to minus 1 percent to minus 2 percent Means that the the currency is actually appreciating, right? Right, so this is this is appreciate and this is Depreciate or D value Yeah That's how to look at it above that line D value actually that even 2% is really being D value, but it's acceptable D value But anything below 2% they look at it as appreciate the currency is appreciating getting more expensive So if the currency is already, you know inflation is already below the 2% and trending away It's appreciating and then they're not reaching their 2% target Which means that they have to cut rates and cutting rates means they have to D value the currency Yeah, they have to counter the appreciation by D value in the currency to bring it back to the 2% target Yeah, but if inflation is below the 2% target, but automatically trending towards That without actually having to do anything then they will hold rates There's no need for them to hike rates when prices are below it, right? And they don't want to cut rates Because inflation is already trending towards it and like I said before Central banks don't want to you know tinker with in Interest rates with their own interest rates because it can hurt the economy So they'd rather let it Naturally get to where they want it to get to Yeah, so these are the rules to the game and if you understand this This is evergreen Yeah, forget looking at forex factory and trying to trade You know any kind of retail sales or anything like that all roads lead to this retail sales employment unemployment it all leads back to GDP and inflation and therefore Interest rates. Yeah Is everybody everybody following? Everyone follow that. Yeah That says Leon can inflation of a country who just went off a country be affected by by the Global economy. Yes, it can it can for example, you know, you've got supply chain problems, right? You've got scarcity And and like you've got commodity prices that that do affect inflation, you know, but it's not It's not right now. I'm trying to keep things as simple as possible Yeah, we're trying to get things keep definitely keep things as simple as possible But the answer is is yes. Yeah inflation of a country can be affected By the global economy depending on where they're located and who their trade partners are Yeah, I give I give I just give a quick example of that for example, Australia, right? So China are the The World's economic engine, right? If China the saying is is if China sneezes then the whole world catches a cold if China go into a recession It would generally affect, you know, the globe because of globalization, right? so the first the countries that are going to be really affected by that by a China slowdown, yeah is going to be Australia and New Zealand typically Australia because they You know that that's their biggest trade partner, right? I know that's exactly it our traffic, right? I know Copper for example gold, etc. So basically China will be buying less of those commodities Yeah, because they're going into a recession, right? They can't afford to the infrastructure projects I've come to a halt. They're not spending as much. Yeah so if Australia then are selling less to a China then that's going to affect not only their GDP, but it can affect inflation because commodity prices are Are included I guess in with inflation readings Yeah, so it can affect it either directly or indirectly also depending on where you are in the world Yeah, so yeah, that is that So let's move on and I'm glad everybody is following brilliant. Excellent. Excellent. Excellent Right, so here we go. Here we are with inflation divergence. I guess differentials, right? And again euro dollar Yeah, so let's go into the euro dollar so you can see hopefully you guys can see the One second. Let me just change the color of this pen tool to do it read Excellent, right. So this was last year, right? So for the hold of 2021 beginning of 2022. Yeah now Remember I said that the the mandate for the central bank is 2% 2% 2% yeah when prices are above 2% Yeah, and trending away from that Then it's one of the things that can force a central bank to want to hike rates, of course, we must remember gdp gdp must support A rate hike so you have to have gdp growing at the same time. Yeah so in the Sorry in the uh in in in the us Around april you had inflation at 4.2 Crazy pretty much double their mandate, right? Whereas in april Yeah of 2021. Sorry. I said 2022 didn't I? Yeah, so april of 2021. Yeah, it's 4.2% in the us Europe was 1.6 in april So again, what do you think? Who was under more pressure to hike rates? Which country was under pressure? All right, here we go.  You're getting it. Yep. Yeah, exactly the us, right? The us were more under pressure in order to hike rates Then europe europe would pretty much look into hold rates so understanding that Yeah, the path of least resistance if you actually look and the same thing, you know continued on right? So the same thing continued on for for for generally You know july or wasn't even though price inflation did go higher in europe and it's going higher pretty much everywhere in the in the world Look at the numbers, right? Look at the numbers. You've got five You know 4.95 5.1. Whereas you've got seven percent So so which currency is being devalued more? Is it europe or is it the us? who's suffering with the most Devaluation of their currency that's exactly it. So which central bank? Is is likely as we know the potential bank that is likely to act first when it comes to hiking rates? Exactly the fed are more aggressive simple Yeah, the fed are more aggressive. Yeah That is it So with that being said so that being said over the year Right, we can look back over the year and we can see Where the path of least resistance was so again just quickly Do you think if we're looking at the the year, right? We're looking at the whole year Right of the euro dollar without looking at the chart. No cheating. Yeah Right, do you think the euro dollar went up or do you think the euro dollar? Went down over the year Leah says down Oh q says up euro dollar, right? So euro dollar pair Yeah, euro dollar. Just make sure yeah If we're looking at the euro dollar over one year because we can see one year's worth of data here and here Where do you think the euro dollar went the euro dollar by the way? I'm seeing up. I'm seeing down Well, why would you buy the euro over the dollar if we just established That the fed are more aggressive in hiking rates. What is hiking rates? Hiking rates is appreciating, right? Appreciating the currency Right. There we are For those of you who were saying up. I don't think you've uh, you've understood you've understood man Exactly down cute. That's exactly it. You're buying the dollar, right? You're buying The quote currency meaning that if you want to buy the quote currency, yeah, then Really on your broker, you're pressing short, right? If you're buying the base currency It means that you're buying, you know, you're thinking at prices are going to go higher, right? So in order for you to buy the euro u.s. Dollar meaning that you think the dollar is going to appreciate, right the euro dollar Went down over the year. Yeah And this is provable by The next slide. This is what happened over the year Yeah, combining inflation and gdp cycle divergence differentials Yeah, this is what happened over the year prices fell from probably around a thousand pips over the Course of over a thousand pips over the course of the year Yeah, the power for this resistance was to the downside. Yeah, we had a moment where prices went up But overall The trend was to the downside predictable predictable And uh, many of the guys many of the guys, you know, um You know in in the group will attest to this. We were going short on the euro dollar last year. No, no longs No longs. I didn't I didn't take one long euro Euro dollar trade Mercedes Mercedes Mercedes welcome, but keep your mic muted, please Um, so so that is pretty much what happened. Yeah light bulb moment. How many of you are getting that light bulb moment? Yeah, we'll do it again, right? We'll do it again We'll do it on another pair. Yeah again last year so Combining inflation and GDP cycle divergence differentials and we do it on the dollar yen The sun is in your eyes It's still a bit confusing. Ah, well, what I can't really ask Unfortunately, is it is it mr. Sean? um Why why is it confusing? What is it because I did ask if everyone was following along And everyone was saying yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. And then all of a sudden now There's a bit of confusion. What is it? What is it?  I don't want to butcher your name is it ammo Gellung ammo Gellung Sean All right, let me go back just just for just for anyone else anyone who's confused. Yeah Just for anyone who's confused So inflation remember is devaluation All right, so this is inflation is devaluation Yep devaluation interest rates combat devaluation or try to combat devaluation Yeah, because by hiking rates You are appreciating And you're creating demand for the currency Yeah, so iron Right, so a hike in rates or a rise in rates So if something is becoming more devalued The only way to get it back to the 2 target is to try to appreciate it That's it. So the central bank is likely To hike rates and if they're hiking rates causing an appreciation Then you should be buying the dollar because the euro are not looking to hike rates anytime soon Because They were lagging behind Yep, it's clear Uh the rising inflation in the us meant devalued currency That's why it was confusing the rising inflation in the us meant a devalued currency Yes, and that's and that's exactly why a sabi I I I truly believe that they deliberately called inflation Inflation should actually be called deflation and deflation should be called inflation because Inflation you think is an increase in value and d deflation would be a decrease In value right, but they did it the other the opposite way round and I do honestly think to confuse to confuse people um If inflation for the us is still going If sorry one second. So mr. Sean said if inflation for the us is still going down Wouldn't it mean that the us is weak? Okay, so you're you're just let's let's focus on what I'm saying right now because nobody's talking about inflation going down, right? I'm giving you an example of inflation rising Yeah, so understand what I'm saying right now. Don't let your mind wander anywhere else You'd need to focus on what's going on right now right in front of you. Yeah So if you don't understand this then how can you ask a totally other opposite question? You have to just focus on what's going on now. You understand d that inflation is devaluation And in order to combat devaluation to stop the devaluation of your currency You need to try to appreciate it And the only way the central banks can try to appreciate it to combat the devaluation to counter that is to hike So the more devalued it gets Is the more they go into hike Yeah Right, uh All right, um Okay, all right. I'll allow you I'll allow you to speak and then I'm gonna move on. Yeah. All right. Let's go. All right. So Did the Fed uh increased the The rates like did they hike or just because of the probability that they're going to hide? Make people trade against uh Your they don't know they don't care about that they care about their economy and they care about inflation Yeah, it's not it's not it's not about whether it's against the euro and it's against it not like they got issues They couldn't care less They're trying to manage their economy.  I'm giving you the rules to the game Just look at the data. That's it. Yeah They got they got inflation problems. They're mandated to bring inflation To 2% they're mandated mandate means that they have to do it They have to have to have to do it somehow. Yeah central banks are mandated to do it so If they're mandated mean mean it's a must Then they're not concerned about what's going on in europe. They would just want To get to that target Yeah, so they have to appreciate it. But anyways, we spent a while on this. I want to get to uh The us dollar. I'm hoping that everybody uh is clear on that If not, unfortunately, I don't know. I don't know what else to say. I don't know what else to say. Um So, um Okay, brilliant. Brilliant. You guys are getting it right By the way guys, I know you guys are commenting in here, but I can't just to get through this To get through the presentation I kind of have to maybe focus more on the presentation And then we're nearly there by the way a few more slides and then we can ask all the questions you want So another maybe 10 15 minutes, right? So let's look at another example of what happened last year So you've got us inflation Yeah, as we know Is it around 7% right cool. It was it was rising. Yeah So it went from 1.4 to 1.7 to 2.6 to 4.2 and it was really, you know going higher, right Above their 2 percent target Now let's look at the yen. Yeah the yen had negative inflation, right minus inflation For pretty much january 2021 And they've just now kind of come positive and that positive is basically 0.8 Yeah, so then you've got what? A check in the check column. Which one do you want to pretty look to buy? You want to look to buy the us dollar, right? You're definitely looking to buy, you know, because the the central bank the bank of japan Yeah, it's not going to do anything with with with interest rates They're doing absolutely nothing with interest rates because they don't have to Yeah, they shouldn't as we said if This is their 2 target. Yeah, and inflation is below Their 2 target, which is what which it was it was like in the negative.  It was just they just literally held rates Whereas the federal reserve Are looking to high crates look at the economy and then let me zoom in I guess a bit because I know it's a bit small Yeah, so let's look at Yeah, so we're looking at us GDP again We know that for for for sure 4.5 6.3 6.7 2.3.  So they weren't doing too great So again when we understand The divergences and the differentials between the two economies Yeah What is the central bank likely to do with interest rates for the us? It's likely to obviously we know that for a fact is high crates Japan hold rates, right? High crates hold rates. So we're just gathering evidence Yeah, so there's a there's a differential. There's a divergence there, right? Remember I say into about divergences you've got divergence at hike hold or cut The best trade is basically, you know hikes versus cuts But there's still a divergence between hikes and holds. Yeah, so understanding this Yeah What do you think in what direction? Do you think the dollar yen went last year higher or lower? On a price chart Up higher long everybody's getting it right. That's exactly it brilliant higher. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, brilliant brilliant brilliant guys Excellent. And if you look at this remember, this is a this is a year's data. This is all a year's data Yeah Fundamentally This is what happened. Yeah over the year It went from pretty much one Two fifty all the way up to one fifteens. So that's literally around about You know, maybe 1300 pips Yeah So that is it Yeah, so combining those cycles Right and the differentials and the divergences Yeah, so Just to round off now because I've been doing this for an hour and I wanted to keep this year Around about an hour and a half or so hour 45 So combine inflation and GDP cycle divergences and differentials with leading and lagging lagging monetary policies A leading and lagging lagging monetary policy. Yeah Now One of the things you must look also look towards Divergences as well as leading and lagging lagging policy. I don't know why I can't can't say uh lagging properly anyways so With leading and lagging Yeah, monetary policy Let me just explain this. So This is from ing bank ing bank do central bank, you know, they're they're forecasting what the central bank possibly may do. Yeah by looking at GDP And inflation as well as some other things as well, but generally all roads lead back to these two, yeah Now One of the things you want to do is you want to look to see who is looking to hike first Yeah, so who is hiking first? Right, so who's first to hike who's second to hike who's first who's third lost and and compared to who's lost to hike So who's hiking first compared to who's lost? Oh, that's right. That's meant to be a t. Sorry about that Yeah, and you want to buy the currency Or I I generally buy the currency who is hiking first because what is hiking hiking is appreciating Versus the currency that is not looking to hike at all. So or and secondly as well, right? Secondly, who is hiking more? Yeah, and who is hiking less? Because the more hikes means that the they're they're they're they're looking to appreciate their currency more the less Hikes that they they're projected to do in the year means that they're not looking to hike as much They're not looking to appreciate their currency as much Yeah, so you want to do you want to you want to take into account who's first who's second who's third? Compared to who's lost there's a divergence and then who's hiking more compared to who is hiking less and This situation and this I guess this this graph is basically just showing you for example for 2022 Right 2022 the quarters right here What they expect the central banks to do so again Federal reserve looking to hike once twice three times four times five times this year compared to what europe who generally I think now this has kind of changed I think the expectation with christine lagarde when she came out was it last week or the week before Pretty much indicating that they may want to hike rates in the fourth quarter Right so that actually should have a bit of a narrow there potentially whether they will whether they won't who knows but you know Pretty much the federal reserve Should be hiking more than the european central bank the bank of england as we know have been hiking rates But less so than the federal reserve Bank of japan Sure not looking to do anything bank of canada looking to hike quite a lot You know reserve bank of australia are starting their first hikes I guess in the second quarter Yeah of this year Again swiss national bank Probably fourth quarter of 2023 so again You can pretty much see Who is hiking And how much they're hiking and you generally again You generally over the medium to long term want to look towards buying the currencies that are looking to appreciate their currencies Then the ones that aren't yeah So leading and lagging Is is is really important? uh one second so And again, we can just look at various this is just a basically a map From bloomberg right showing you central banks take hawkish stance and more than a dozen have already hiked rates in 2022 with more to come And it just shows you from a guess a global perspective Who is hiking who is who has held rates and who is cutting right so you can start to look and see Which countries you should be buying? You know and which countries you should be selling of course i'm not looking to buy anything That's not you know one of the major or exotic pairs and exotic i mean, you know You know pairs like for example euro new zealand. I'm still only looking to trade You know the swiss franc japanese yen, you know canadian dollar australian dollar new zealand dollar pound yen And euro right And the dollar those are really the currencies that i'm looking to looking to trade right and i'm looking at Differentials and divergencies between those right so Ultimately we need To think like the central bank. Yeah What are they likely to do with interest rates? Right appreciate or depreciate the currency when looking at gdp and inflation data. What are they likely to do? Yeah, and in with with fundamental analysis What we're doing as fundamental analysis protagonists We're looking to buy the rumor and sell the fact so again We think like investment banks and funds because the investment banks and funds take their cues from what? The central bank is going to do and they're the they're you know Is what it's I guess what it's called the market whenever people say refer to you know what the market thinks It's the investment banks the hedge funds the sovereign wealth funds the family offices, etc Right those are the buyers and sellers of the currency and those create the demand or supply etc Right, but they're taking their cues from what central banks Do yeah, so In order for you to Again want to buy or sell the currency. Yeah, and buy the rumor I guess is what I meant to say right the data must support the the rumor or the narrative It's really important that you understand this because yes, we can understand that let's say for example Let's say for example gdp. Yeah is on the rise. Oh brilliantly on said gdp is on the rise excellent I want to be buying First of all, you really want gdp and inflation. Yeah to be on the rise, but let's say for example We have inflation and let's say for example inflation is at I don't know two percent yeah GDP is on the rise now If inflation yeah, it doesn't mean that they're going to high crates But let's say for example the inflation starts to look like it's going higher. Yeah Maybe two point one percent and there's rumors that they may want to high crates. Yeah Because it may be inflation is going maybe slightly slightly beyond their two percent target And I wouldn't even say two point one. I would probably say maybe something like maybe three percent. Yeah three percent Central banks start to maybe wanting to try to talk it down or whatever it is. Yeah, let's say for example It's a three percent now if the next reading, let's say for example is maybe two point eight percent Yeah, it doesn't support the narrative that they're going to high crates Because they think, you know that obviously there's a two percent target that they're mandated to achieve and this may be the start of Prices or inflation coming back down towards that two percent target Yeah, so the data has to support the narrative Yeah, you can't just start buying willy-nilly or selling willy-nilly, you know, I mean you have to You know, there has to be legs to the rumor. There has to be supporting evidence. Yeah to the rumor Yeah, so make sure that that You know, you keep your finger on the pulse Trust bank forecasts, right trust the banks And no people don't trust the banks and there's times where you know You've got to be kind of anti-establishment in certain respects and I'm not one to necessarily trust the establishment But when it comes to bank forecasts I trust them and the reason why is because I'm not saying that they're going to be right all the time or wrong We're just kind of illustrating a point is that banks are not in the Business of misleading their clientele. Yeah, they're not in the, you know, they're paid, you know clientele And they're and and the people that they're managing money for right They're not in the business of doing that. They need to have credibility. Yeah, so when they Produce their bank forecasts, they don't know who's reading it. Right. It could be a massive, you know Investor right who subscribes to Bloomberg or the Financial Times and you know, they've got an analyst, you know Who's quoted as saying, you know, we think that the euro dollar is going to go down for example, right? It's going to continue to devalue. Yeah now They could basically make Decisions, you know, their clientele or a potential client could make decisions based off of what they're Saying, right? So they don't they're not trying to be wrong because if they're wrong more often than they're right Yeah, then they're going to lose all credibility. They're going to get money. So Trust bank forecasts. Yeah, I'm not saying that, you know, the forecast today Yeah, because again, as I as I'm going to remind you repeatedly remind you This is medium to long-term trading. Yeah, this is medium to long-term trading in the short term for this week Who knows what price is going to do mark is going to show you basically how to How the market makers work in the short term and how to really kind of trade short term Yeah, as well as, you know, medium to long term as well, but From the perspective of, you know, trying to predict where price is going to go in the short term. Yeah Is really a bit of a fool's game if you don't understand the market makers model, right? I can tell you that now and I've traded I've probably bought a whole load of courses. I've probably spent what I spent maybe 15 Nearly maybe 20 grand on indicators in the past, right when I was learning And uh, I can tell you some I can tell you tell you now, right God is my witness, right? It is just, you know It's technical analysis if you don't know, you know I guess all the flow market makers stuff is you're just going to be lost in the wilderness. Anyways, trust the banks Combined fundamental divergence trade ideas with higher time frame zones So look at we always look at it from a macro perspective. Yeah From from the bigger picture. So the best zones, whatever technical strategy you're trading Yeah, look at it from the higher time frame perspective, whether you're trading supply and demand, whether you're trading Support and resistance daily zones Daily levels are really where you want to have that perspective. Yeah um five minute levels, you know one minute zones, you know These one hour zones and levels are just not going to um Cut it you really need you really really really need to look at it from a bigger perspective And that's not to say that you shouldn't trade the lower time frames, of course But let's say what what ultimately what you want to do and and what we do at trading 180 is is understand basically You know, we're looking at looking at daily zones. First of all, right? That's a demand zone For example, prices might come up. So we do our fundamental analysis. We understand the price has been coming up Whatever it is, this is an area of value and then From a daily perspective and then we look to or a weekly perspective and then we go down into The lower time frames and look for our, you know, trade entries and trade setups Whether it's stop hunting catch a pain relief or just daily supply and demand zone setups Yeah, so you can go into the lower time frames when you're looking for entries and you know Micro levels but overall what you want to do is have that daily and look for daily and weekly zones Whatever your technical strategy, you know is currently um The market Marches to the drum of its own beat not yours. So what do I mean by that? I mean that the market works in its own time. Yeah, just because you're trying to pass a Prop firm challenge or because you need to make money, you know today this week or even this month. Yeah It doesn't, you know, the the market doesn't care. It doesn't care what you want to do and what your targets are Yeah, generally Yeah, the the market I don't want to get too much into it But how the how the uh, the banks and financial institutions have to do the business model between Institutions and market makers. Yeah It takes time for them to fill their orders, right? So Banks institutions may take at least You know a week a month two three months to fill their orders before prices may go higher, right? so Again, I'm not really trying to get into the technicals around it, but just understand that That fundamentally we want to be buyers. There's that that might be maybe a week or two of trading Yeah, now many people will say well Leon said to buy the you know the the the euro dollar or sell the euro dollar Then it's been going sideways for the past, you know week or two That's again, it's not our concern. Eventually it will go higher or lower But what has to happen in more more of the short term is more of the auction phase Yeah, the buying and selling Yeah of of of of euros liquidity has to be got Yeah, iceberg orders, etc has to be accumulated and They banks don't have the luxury of being able to fill their orders just in one click Right like like retail traders. We just buy here and that's it. Brilliant. But they have to accumulate They have to you know be able to buy in Um, you know over a period of time So fundamentals and as I say medium to long term you've seen the euro dollar, right? You saw the euro dollar go down you saw Um, the the dollar yen go up where their periods in that euro dollar downtrend Where you might have had a week or two or even a month or two of prices rising, of course, you would have Yeah, but overall the path of lethal distance was to the downside in the same way that you know the the yen was Was was was going sideways for maybe periods of time before going higher Maybe even went lower, but generally The path for these resistance was to the upside. Yeah, so in the short term It's really about understanding Um, you know value and the market marching really to the beat of its own drum Not yours. You can't put a time frame when when these things are going to happen But trust me They will right they will so other fundamental trade ideas do include convergence and resentment I'm not going to get into that in this one. Maybe in another webinar Maybe not it depends, but the guys definitely who are in the group will know about convergence and resentment ideas We just really kind of focused on divergence Ideas and also as well finally just quickly as well Don't get married to forex pairs really and truly your forex pairs that you trade should be dictated to you by The fundamental analysis and looking for that trade idea right looking for the divergences or the differentials in monetary policy Whether, you know, a central bank is hiking rates Another one is cutting rates or whether, you know, you've got Leading and lagging monetary policy. That's where you're looking to trade That's because that's where you know, hopefully where prices should go either to the upside or to the downside If you're trading to currencies where the central banks are looking to hold rates Then who knows where prices may go? I don't know You know what I mean in the medium to long term Nobody knows because it's again, it's a straight fight. It's like betting on You know a boxing match where you've got two even evenly matched fighters It's harder To make money on that bet then it would be To bet on a fighter who is in tip top shape versus someone who hasn't been training in his maybe in his bloody 40s You know, I mean there's there's easy bets out there It doesn't happen every day or even every single week. Yeah, it can There's times where we get loads of trade ideas everything kind of aligns and we we we have so many trades We don't know which ones to take and there are some days where and maybe some weeks where you know, there are slim pickings We can't You know trade based off of what Our time frame is the market, you know is is a is a relationship between the institutions and the market makers Yeah, it's their business model. It's not ours. Yeah, so we have to pick and choose when we trade And when we don't and as I said, there's some trade There's some weeks where you might have 10 trades. There's some weeks where you might have one trade. Who knows? Yeah, so don't but don't get married to forex pairs if the fundamentals are not clear, right On your favorite pair.  Oh, my favorite pair is that's nonsense because your favorite pair is dictated to by a fundamental analysis Right and if it's not clear Don't trade it. There's nothing wrong with not trading. You know the the gu There's nothing wrong with not trading the eu if it's if if if if it was once trending Yeah, or once the fundamentals were clear. Yeah And then all of a sudden now let's hit all of a sudden but generally it's they they become less of a divergence It doesn't become as clear. Just don't trade it right look for where there are divergences And there there are always divergences There are always divergences from resentiment divergences. I've obviously just shown you one, you know, and there are convergences It's always trade ideas that you can but from a from a Divergence perspective. This is you know, where we are, right? So those are really my uh, my top tips Yeah, and that brings me really So to the end of the webinar and marks, you know, just so told you about tomorrow Just as a reminder day two footprints of the market wells and how to trade alongside them Tomorrow thursday 17th of february 8 p.m. London time and I was going to say email mark But you've already got the links. So don't worry about that um And pretty much just a q&a now, um, there is something I do want to go over just quickly as well I forgot I put this in this slide matter of fact just quickly because I do get this question a lot And the question is is should I always buy the currency with the highest interest rate and the answer really is no Um, because the highest interest rate doesn't always dictate Um You know the way you should be buying a given example, right? So let's say for example, you've got an uh, a currency that has five percent In interest rate, right and you have one that is Uh at one percent this central bank is looking to hold rates. Yeah, but this Central bank is looking to hike rates. Which one should you buy? Which one should you buy? Which bank should you buy bank a?  All right. Anyone said b is correct because What's known? Yeah, what's known about the valuation of The this currency the central bank are not looking to do anything. They're not looking to appreciate Or or depreciate their currency, right? They're looking to hold rates. They're comfortable with where it is whereas This currency or this central bank are looking to hike rates from 1 to 1.5 Maybe to 2 to 2.5. So these guys are actually appreciating their currency. Whereas these guys are not So by default you will have The valuation you will have if this is obviously, you know, this might be uh, Don't know the euro for example, and that might be the dollar. Yeah So if you're buying euro dollar EU Yeah, and this is what happens then you want to buy Europe you want to buy the one with the lowest If interest rate because they're looking to hike rates and they're looking to appreciate their currency Whereas the one with the higher interest rate actually isn't they're looking to hold rates So there's a tip right there There's a massive tip right there a lot a lot of traders get that wrong In fact, I'd probably say again 99 percent. I haven't seen the one Trader not like I'm looking online or anything like that.  Anyways, and the second one before we get into the q&a is and I'll do the q&a for maybe another maybe about Maybe about 15 15 minutes or so, right? So can I apply fundamentals to the five-minute chart? Yes, of course you can but and I think I've probably alluded to this Earlier or actually I said it earlier is understand where you are on a price chart Apply the higher timeframes. Yeah, you you must look at the higher time frame levels Higher time frame zones. Yeah in order for you to um In order for you to uh To trade in the five minutes because what you're ultimately doing again Like I said, if you're coming up to if you're coming down to maybe a daily or weekly demand zone Then fine brilliant. You can trade the five minute in there, right zoom down into that zone but you have to look for Higher time frame levels because those are the ones that are going to be traded the most So, uh, all right, that brings me to the end of the webinar. I'll do a quick 15 minutes And I've got a few questions. I will start with Lloyd Lloyd says can you please show us how you prepare fundamental analysis spreadsheet? I will say that not in this webinar Not in this webinar, but the fundamental analysis spreadsheet is really for the guys in the in the group and uh I think I might be doing them a bit of a disservice if I do, you know, I mean it's a bit of a trade secret So, uh, unfortunately not um How do we combine inflation and interest rates to GDP? Well, first of all You would you that's not the way to look at it because interest rates are dictated by GDP and inflation Almost like you have to look at it like this. Yeah, as I said all roads at the beginning I don't know if you was here at the beginning, right to answer that question, but All roads lead to interest rates So you have to look at it like this Yeah, as I said all roads at the beginning I don't know if you was here at the beginning right to answer that question But all roads lead to interest rates. So that's the most important Right and then below that You've got inflation And GDP uh GDP. Yeah, so this is like the king. This is like where all roads will lead This is the final destination what the central bank would do with currencies either appreciate Or depreciate or devalue, right? That's basically what what we're talking about So depending on what happens here and here inflation and GDP will determine What central banks do with interest rates and that's all i'm concerned with right if GDP is growing and inflation is above the 2 target and trending away from that 2 target as far as trending higher Then I know that central bank is generally going to high crates. So I want to be buying that currency. That's it Yeah, that is it. I'm not trying to remix this and trying to look at what's going on with GDP Looking at inflation and interest rates. That doesn't make any sense. Why would I want to do that? So No worries, uh, uh chalky, uh, can you please open membership? No, um Yeah I'll think about it. I'll think about it. Uh, we watched a video Okay, uh, what banks that do analysis Which we can some we can trust somehow that's from no so pretty much All the banks. All right, I'll give you you know what you should um If you go to one of the banks and one of the free websites and that I use pretty much religiously Is ing yeah, I use there. There are there are several there was probably maybe around about 10 11 12, uh banks in the group that we look towards Uh analysis wise, but I'll give you one of the three ones and it's think th i k Dot i and g Dot com right Lots of info there Lots of info there great analysis. Um, and uh, you know That will definitely help you out with the forecasts. What's going on in the economy? Um, you know, you can there's there's bloomberg You can you know, I wouldn't say subscribe to that if if it's not in your budget You can if you want to if they do like a I guess a maybe like a A three month, you know trial subscription for maybe like, you know, 10 pound or something like that then Um, then definitely worth it You find it worth it ing yeah the ing bank ing Bank there a dutch bank great analysis Uh, I'm just scrolling back through the through the um Through the through the questions Uh, okay, please. Can we can we get gdp inflation interest rates? Right? So that would be trading economics So trading to our ad ing e c o n o m i c s Right to get all that data trading trading economics.com Is where I look towards for my data Uh, do you take into consideration the amount of loans with fixed and variable interest? Nah, I don't do that. There's no reason to take into account. Um Loans and fixed and as I said, I don't know if you was at the beginning at the beginning uh, oringo one, um Eliminate the noise, right? There's a lot of noise. There's a lot of Um distractions. Yeah, I'm this presentation literally tells you What to focus on Like I wouldn't say there's nothing else. Yeah, there are some other things in here that you maybe you could But you don't need them. This is what you need. Yeah, this is all you need. This is like, you know Keys to the kingdom or this will definitely give you a great trading idea There are like said other trading ideas, of course, there are but this is one of them that will that will definitely set you straight And if you can understand this Then you should be all right Difference between GDP year on year and quarter on quarter year on year is measured obviously every year quarter on quarter every quarter Uh, you want to look at probably more focus on quarter on quarter Um, because that's where you will find out It's a shorter time frame first of all and also two two negative readings Yeah, two negative readings of of um of quarter on quarter two quarters negative readings will equal a recession right recession I think ess recession So it's better. It's it's you know, if you're gonna I mean focus on you can focus on both But the most important reading is the quarter on quarter Um news. Yeah, so news that affects inflation and and interest so news that affects inflation and There's lots of there's lots of news. What I would say is is is is try to focus on Things like wage growth Um And again, you can go into so much. There's there's many different areas to focus on Focus more on things like just cpi right cpi data Yeah, um is one of them wage growth is definitely Um another that the central bank generally tends to focus on there are obviously other You know inflation data like you know commodity prices, you know supply chain problems But generally what you want to focus on is is mainly cpi. Yeah mainly cpi and wage growth Uh, just a practical question. You cannot attend tomorrow's webinar. Will it be recorded? Or that's up to mark that is up to mark. Unfortunately Uh, I don't know. We might just want to want to make it exclusive. Sorry again. Um Let's see, uh Asabi Attend marks webinar and you'll see Yeah attend marks webinar and you'll see us abby Uh Flawless with what we have learned from you today. Can you look to sell the euro dollar in the future?  Yeah, and we've been sellers of the euro dollar. Um pretty much Most of the year I would say actually pretty much all year probably from around about January I think it was january mid january if I remember correctly Um, I've been a seller of the uh of of the euro dollar So yeah, I mean the divergence isn't there anymore as much as as much anymore, right? And the reason why is because the um the ecb right ecb Christine Lagarde has come out and kind of Given the markets a bit of a rumor that they may want to high crates this year Even though even though the the fed are way ahead of them I do think I do think that towards the maybe the second half of the year You know, we could get a decent pullback on that euro dollar But me my my uh my bias is still to the short side It's still to the short side for sure um All right, uh, I am still getting confused on how to identify economic cycle of a country Please just a little bit more. Whoa. Just just just think about your own country. Uh, I think is is it no I think it's how you pronounce it think about your own country, right? Think about your own country Where are you in in terms of are you are you growing? Yeah, are you growing? Are you seeing the the GDP data? Start to grow if you are yeah, then you're probably in either the recovery the expansion Phase the boom phase would be when everything is lovely and everything is brilliant, right? But you're probably either in the recovery or the expansion phase of the economic cycle That's what I would say. It depends on where obviously where you are if obviously you're you're you're you're GDP data is going down then, you know, you're not right You're probably in the contraction the the recession or the bust lump, you know phase of things Yeah, so from that perspective, you know, that's really where you are So and again, you just just by generally having a look reading, you know And looking at the data you can you can pretty much see where you are or where a country is Um Zaya do you keep asking that question sir? Can you tell me news that affects interest rates and inflation and GDP news that affects interest rates inflation and GDP is news that says You know about interest rates inflation and GDP, right? So What affects again? The economy what makes up the economy For me, I tend to right so you can you know, if you go on forex factor You've got loads of different, you know points and this is why I say all roads lead to um to GDP right so they say you got GDP here Right now below GDP you're going to have all these other data points Yeah, whether it's you know home building whether it's Manufacturing whether it's retail sales. Da da da da. You've got everything. Yeah all of these little data points They all lead to GDP Yeah, they all lead to GDP now While I have A slight eye on that that's fine to have you know to just be aware of what's going on But I filter out generally this noise Yeah, I'm aware of certain things of course and every single tick That happens you might get you know, maybe a bit bad data there You might get good data there good data there, right? So you might have four five 10 different data points that are great You might have maybe two that are bad, but ultimately I'm looking at this number I'm looking at did GDP grow And or did GDP store or did GDP shrink that's what I'm looking at Yeah, so I'm not really focused on And I'm not saying that you shouldn't be focused on it Of course, definitely be aware of what's going on but all of these generally will add up to this and also as well again the shortcut was understanding what the central bank is doing with interest rates the central bank Could basically the smartest guys in the room and if you read their statement and they're saying that they can They're continuing to high crates and they want to high crates. Yeah It pretty much means that they think that GDP is going to continue to grow Right, that's the shortcut Because they're looking at GDP anything that you think you're being clever with in in a sense that you think you're looking at something That no one else is looking at The central bankers are looking at everything they're taking into account every single data point And they're saying in their statements. They're giving you the shortcut. They're saying We've looked at the economy And we're hiking rates still That should tell you everything you need to know Yeah, so there are there is a cheat sheet there You know, I mean looking at a central bank statement But also as well just looking at general GDP and inflation and looking at that data and where it's going Marianne welcome Marianne. How you doing? When should we start buying and selling when the rumor appear or when the news is published? Well, they go hand in hand, don't they? Because you don't really get the rumor until you see You know pay attention to certain news, right and and and they get their data So it really depends on where you are in the cycle, right? So let's say for example Marianne Let's let's focus on the euro the euro is a good example because because the euro has been weak for so long Yeah, and it's been lagging behind lots of other central banks like, you know, the new zealand dollar the the The the the u.s. Dollar the canadian dollar, etc. Right. They're like they're lagging behind The rumor now has started to change hasn't it right the rumor is that they might look at start looking to hike rates Yeah So the rumor started with with with really the the um the central bank Yeah, because they've looked at what inflation Yeah, and they've said inflation is way above it's like five point was it five point one or something like that right now So it's way above their two percent target Yeah, five point one percent Now they've come out themselves And said and given a signal that they might want to hike rates So the rumor now has started directly from the ecb So then What will make what will what will give this rumor? What will give this rumor? Legs what will give it more credibility if inflation is above there What do you need to see as a trader to believe that they are likely to hike rates? What needs to happen? They exactly guys exactly marianne gdp data, right? Because the ecb are not going to hike if gdp is still flatlining They need to see some good figures So if you start to so the rumors started now, right? So you could you could you could price might come down to a level, right? And you could say all right there's a demand zone For example on the euro swiss Right, which is a pair that i'm definitely interested in buying right now. Yeah Surprises have come down to a level And the ecb have now turned around and said we need to see gdp data Now of course i'm going to want to start to look to buy right? I'm going to have to look to buy i don't know what gdp data is going to be But i all what i do know is that the smartest people in the room Have started the rumor now They've obviously looked at gdp data and said well, it's probably maybe about time We should probably start to maybe you know start the rumor now They don't know and i don't know nobody knows but no there's no certainties But what i can do is the rumors starts i can start to scale in yeah, i can start to add a small position Yeah, so buy the rumor Yeah, buy the rumor so i start to add in a small position as soon as the rumors starts And then as Time goes on and then you get good gdp data Yeah Brilliant, you know you can stay in that trade because then the rumor starts to have legs because The rumor when you're buying the rumor everyone else is going to start to buy the rumor right everyone's starting to look to buy On pullbacks, etc. Market does move in a straight line, but the root once once the rumors starts It's then up to you to decide You know what is this rumor likely to happen or not do i believe the rumor and So if you start to believe the rumor then Why not just put on a small position right and then maybe once it starts to have legs Then you can start to maybe add a full position size on and start to trade it You know with in with full positions, but it starts with a combination of Of things so it starts from you know the the the ecb can start with you know the actual data itself You know confirming that fact or the the the the data Coming ahead of the ecb because sometimes that happens as well or central banks the data can confirm What is happening in the economy? And then you'll then what you'll generally see is then central banks say well We look to the data and we think that that's what it is right We're going to high crates or cut rates for example So as long as the data Yeah is getting better Then it can be a combination of things whether it's data or whether it's you know the actual ecb looking to Um But that's where the rumor starts, but you won't know where the rumor starts unless you understand GDP interest rates You know or inflation and and and the relationship between that between those three Uh, so I've got scrolled up because there's there's a load of questions, right? I'm going to stay on for another I'll do another 10 minutes. I'll do two hours, right? So let me just scroll up a bit. So I did answer Marianne I hope that answered question Marianne, but Marianne you're in yeah, I'll speak to you in a bit later Ambrose how long are your trades open for on average? Um, I'm not getting into that ambrose Because it really doesn't matter what I do In so far as I swing trade, right? Um, I swing trade and and that's what it is. We're talking about the fundamentals right now Um How'd you get the mocks? Well, if you're here, then you should have the same you should have the link Ambrose to um in that same email Uh to mocks, uh webinar So in that same email that I sent or mocks sent, I think he would have put in the webinar if he's if he hasn't Um, then you probably will get a link maybe tomorrow You'll get an email tomorrow. Uh, alex says, uh, yes, that would be the best thing to do Right now press conference. Yeah press conferences can also start the rumor but any example The us had inflation higher than the euro And the us did not hike rates I don't know what they're good, but they're going to hike rates, right? They're going to hike rates. That's what it is alex. Um, they're looking to hike rates this year So the the ecb are not looking to hike rates anytime soon. So again that leading and lagging, right? Um, so in the you and again, we're buying the rumor that they will Yeah, this is the rumor So the rumor has already started the rumor started a long time ago before you way before you got into, you know this, uh Before you got into this webinar, right me and the guys in our discord room, right? We're short in the euro That's all we've been doing is short in the euro over the over the past year So we've been buying the rumor way before the rumor started Yeah, because now everyone's gonna once everyone starts to buy the dollar when they start to hike rates That's maybe you know where you want to sell the facts But I don't want to get into that because that's that brings off onto into something else um In the us and jpy slides wise Why what if us gdp was down? Would you still go long, uh, dollar? Yes, of course not lax Why would I want to go long the dollar if the gdp is down? All right, you answered your own question No need to Why eu was in buy mode. I have no idea what that means. Sorry. Sorry, Alex Then Then then you've got to watch your mouth, man Um All right. All right. I'm so sorry. Yeah, no worries. No way. Did you want to ask did you want to ask the question then? No, all right, then cool Yeah, can you hear me? Yeah, I can hear you All right, like I was so surprised like to See that the webinar is on But already I have a I have a question in mind All right, you know what have the when did when did you join? Yeah, like I was I was in I was in for like, um up to like 30 minutes and And so like Unfortunately, unfortunately, okay, Dan, I'm gonna I'm gonna say this. Yeah, unfortunately for you. I cannot go over I cannot go over the webinar again. I'm afraid you missed it. I'm afraid you missed it. So, um Yeah, there may be a recording. I was I was toying with the idea of a recording But I do want to generally reward the people, you know who turned up, you know for the webinar and I you know I'll think about releasing the recording. I really will think about it I'll I'll don't know about where I'll be very grateful like I'll be very grateful. Yeah, I might do I'm I may do Yeah, because again, I don't want this stuff floating around online forever in a day This is you know, this is years of hard work. By the way, this is trial and error You know, I mean he's I'm saying everybody. It's funny. Everybody wants everybody wants wants wants to share Information it's funny. Yeah, they want to share and I don't mind sharing information, of course You know, I mean it is what it is It's not necessarily, you know that but in a sense of You know that there was a there was a dying all day like to to hear How about this because I know I really need it in my trading journey Like I know it's going to help me fundamentally like I'll be having issue like grabbing the concept fundamental people There's a lot that goes into it, but trust me This is this is this is really the the basics, but thanks Dan and unfortunately you missed it, but Um, you know, I might release it a bit, you know a bit later. It depends. Uh, let me get through the questions though quickly one second So flawless says Please do you think the Kiwi is a bargain now fundamentally and technically to buy? Yes, I do and again This is I'm not giving you financial advice. Please I'll give you financial advice. I'm not saying we'll go and buy now, but it is definitely Um, a pair that I'm interested in you have to be just just careful of risk off Yeah, risk off sentiment because risk off sentiment is um Something that goes against commodity currencies and can strengthen Safe haven currencies like the the yen and the swiss franc. Yeah, so just be careful of that But I do think risk off sentiment Um is dissipating and I think we're probably coming, you know, we're in a bit more risk on mode So I am I am looking uh for for buy trades on that. Um on that, uh, New Zealand dollar Do you see euro coming below? No, I don't I don't see the euro dollar going below below one Does fundamentals work for indices? Well I only trade forex. Um, and I know it works for forex. I have no idea what works for indices. Unfortunately GDP is lagging indicator Uh Again, I think I think when people say lagging indicator, like it's a bad thing, of course gdp's it lags simply because Um Because they have to collect the data, right? There's you know, you think about the amount of information that you have to collect Yeah, but it doesn't be it being a lagging indicator doesn't stop and does never stopped us from making money, right? It's all about understanding Um What uh is likely to happen is happening now and what it likely is happening in the future, right? And Yes, gdp might be technically a lagging uh data I wouldn't say indicator, but it's a lagging data, but it's the most important Yeah, it's the most important one of the most important, you know things that you have to look at, right? So, um Do use other indicators leading to predict if gdp should be positive Uh or negative, um, I would say look at look at jobs jobs is generally Um, uh a good indication, you know jobs employment unemployment is a good indicator of Of whether the economy is doing well Uh So does retail Oh No, it says um Does retail sales influence and affect I have no idea uh favor No idea whether retail sales data influence or affect cpi data um Japan economy depends so much on export how this relate to the value of its currency. Um So exports exports Generally help an economy And let me just delete this I guess exports help an economy Um Because the more you sell which is exports. Yeah, rather than imports Should boost economic growth, right? So it just think of your own pocket. Yeah, if you're spending Yeah more than your Uh, I'll think of a business. I should say so if you're if you're spending more in your business For example wages, um, you know rent for the building, etc. You know equipment then you are Um getting customers in then you're going to be in in in in what's known as a deficit, right? You're going to be in a Um, you're going to be in trouble. Yeah, but if you're selling more then your Overheads then you're going to be making money. It's the same thing with imports and exports. So As long as exports Yeah Are more than imports. It's it's what's known as I guess, um Ah lord, my brain's gone blank. I think I'm just tired. It's called, um Uh, you've got Surplus that's it. Yes. Yes trade surplus. Thank you Thank you. Whoever that was thank you. Like I said, I've been talking for two hours and my my prices went blank Yeah, trade deficits and trade surplus. All right trade deficits trade surplus So if you've got a trade surplus, I mean most countries apart from maybe australia, I think it is in new zealand Generally have trade deficits, but and I think maybe canada might have a trade surplus, but I'm not too sure. Um, but yeah, basically Exports help you to get to a trade surplus And if your trade deficit is keeps going down meaning that you're importing more than you're exporting It will have the the effect on your gdp Right, it will have an effect on gdp Um, because you have to really kind of sell more than you then you're buying and that's the reason why china right china Export more than they import Right, I don't think when was the last time china went into a recession Um, have no idea But because they're because their their currency is so cheap and it's managed by the people's bank of china um They can afford everybody the world pretty much, you know the uk the us wherever you live in the world Generally will go to china Um to to manufacture goods, right because you can manufacture goods for cheap And then china will export those goods to the world, right? So they sell way more than they import because how many how i don't know if china buy uk goods I don't know if china buy, you know as much us goods or or or european goods Of course they do but the balance is definitely not Um from the perspective of you know, they they sell more to the world than they probably buy Right, it's just and that's why their their economy is generally always Always tip-top, so um the question being is is from a japan economy depends much on exports I think most economies do Um, it would it would relate to the value of its currency and if we go back a few slides or if you remember remember The japan economy Yeah Was in the negative for ages. I think it was It was negative for for a while and then it's only now just returned to some sort of growth I think and then it went down and that was inflation. Sorry. It wasn't negative for ages I think it was like it was like that last year 2021. I think it was 2022 Obviously we all suffered, you know With the recession due to covet, but I think the recovery was was very uneven I think it was down. I think it was minus then it went into positive then it went into minus again So they're struggling with obviously the covet They were struggling with with the recovery after covet whereas other countries like the uk for example in the us You know, they managed to get covet under control, which then means that they you know Were first out at the blocks when it came to gdp, right? Because they didn't have as many lockdowns, etc. Same thing was like new zealand, etc. So But imports going back to exports and that it does help the economy directly Which then would affect, you know, the the currency It's I'm gonna maybe answer one more question because it is 10 o'clock and I did say I'd have 10 minutes So unfortunately Thomas or fortunate for Thomas, but for everybody else Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to answer any of your questions But Thomas is the last one. So how long have you been trading this way? What's the average length of your okay? I'll answer the how long we're trading this way and I've been trading this way for Four or five years probably something like that And Again, I'm not really going to get into average length of my trades because everybody's different, right? Everybody in the group is different Um, and that gets into really how I you know, trade and it's not really about that. Unfortunately Thomas I don't really want to go into it in this in this webinar Um, but generally I do swing trade, right? I do both So not to say I day trade and swing trade, but I take short term profits But I always leave Positions open for a for for the swing trade for generally the medium to long term I want to say always it also depends because fundamentals Can and do dictate how long I hold trades for because if something changes Then I'm going to take take profit, right? If something changes in the fundamentals, then I will take profit Um, it's not the only reason why I take profit But generally I'll have an idea as to the next maybe one to three months What is potentially happening and I will get into and out of trades and swing trade the longest I held the trade for was uh Was gold and I held it for sorry not gold Silver and I held it for about a year biggest trade I ever I ever made and that was like something like a an 85 to 1 trade and in fact It was probably a bit maybe a bit more because I was kind of getting in and out But one of my trades one of my positions ended up being like a 85 to 1. So So, yeah, um You know that was uh, and that's all documented by the way Just in case you don't believe me. I I did that in the group and there's evidence of that. So, um Unfortunately guys all the questions are uh, I can't answer any any more. So I'm going to end the webinar now I hope you found it useful And uh, don't forget please Uh, you know mark Chapman is going to blow your mind tomorrow. Seriously man. Um, that guy is uh, he's very very plugged in Very plugged in to what's going on. It's not nonsense. He's talking about what he's going to show you literally and what he showed me Um is literally, you know from a market maker's mouth Yeah from an actual market maker not theory. Yeah, it's not Um, you know anything like okay.  So I implore you please just turn up You know and and and listen and really get that knowledge Um and what he's about to say anyways guys brilliant You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome guys.