As Salaamu Alaikum, khawatheena khazrat. Welcome to lecture number 8, brand management, MKT 624 at the Virtual University of Pakistan. In the last lecture, I was talking about the brand management process, which starts with a brand vision. Before that, I've been talking about how to build the overall strategic management process, because an understanding of that is a prerequisite to knowing what brand management strategic process is. And we learnt that it is the overall business vision that has to take care of the brand vision. It has to address many elements of the brand vision. And brand vision is the starter when it comes to brand management process. Vision leads to so many different strategies which are all related with brand development, and is set off all those for the complete process which takes us toward the destination. And the destination is the achievement of goals that we have set to ourselves in terms of the brand movement. Having said that, now we are going to talk about how to build that brand vision. In the last lecture, we talked about the brand vision and why brand vision is important. That was a focal point of the previous discussion. Today, we're going to talk about, with a lot of emphasis on how to build that vision. It is a four-part approach. You start talking with the brand management as a part of departure toward the process, because unless you have the vision in place, you just cannot move forward in a well-structured strategic way. Nothing is to be left to chance. So therefore, you start talking with as the first step with the senior management. Why do you talk with senior management? Because senior management of the company has two fundamental jobs. One is to maintain business, and the other is to develop it. Business development being one of the most important jobs of the top management. Top management in a way is all about business growth and development. They keep developing business and they keep maintaining the growth. That's the other way of putting it. When you start talking with the senior management, you have to talk with them very candidly about your brand. And first of all, you have to ask them about their perceptions of the brand's role towards brand's own growth. Towards brand's role in the overall growth of the company and about their perception as to how far the brand will go. When you go to the top management seeking interview or seeking their input, it goes without saying that you go to them fully prepared with all your numbers ready and which brings us back to the translation of the vision into objectives. It is the commitment of the top management to the brand and its future movement which gives substance to the process of brand management and hence the job which you are carrying out. The questions that you ask top management about the three elements that I talked earlier, meaning as to what is their perception of the brand's role towards the brand's growth, what is their perception about the brand's contribution towards the overall growth of the company and what is their thinking about how far the brand will go. To get answers to all these elements, we have to ask very candidly a lot of questions to the brand management. Those questions will enable us to analyze their thinking of the past history as they understand it, be present as they see it because after all they are the creators of business, they are the managers of the overall business, they are experienced people, their perspective is very broad and there has to be a matching of perspectives when we are talking with them. So our perspective of brand movement, given the brand's history and given the brand's present, we have to talk with them to get their analysis of how far the brand will go. Let us start talking about these questions one by one. The first question that you must ask is what markets, business lines and channels the company will pursue. The perspective of top management about all these factors has got to be very clear and there is no doubt about that. When we talk about markets, what it means is how many markets we want to cover. Let us go back to the example of brand XYZ of the fast food that we talked about in the last lecture. You remember that we talked about starting business from the largest market of the country, which is Karachi. And we also talked about the possibility as part of the vision of the company to spread out into other markets and why not. So top management has got to be clear about what markets the company should be covering in the times to come. And when they talk about that, your understanding of the total marketing activities as they relate to the brand in terms of sales, in terms of distribution, in terms of logistics and in terms of communication has got to be very clear. And when I say it has to be clear, I am talking about the clarity of mind that you have to have in the light of the knowledge that you have about those factors. There may be certain factors that are inhibiting and there may be certain factors which are very encouraging. So depending upon how encouraging they are or how inhibiting those are, you have to make your decision, which of course you are going to convey to the management later after you have talked with them and you have gathered all the facts and figures. And which calls for a complete analysis. We should be talking about that in a moment. Business lines I talked about means if you are into the line of sandwiches, you have to have the perspective of management about any other line or lines that they envisage getting into. Again giving you the example of the fast food. If they are into sandwiches, maybe two years down the road they would like to get into pizzas or something very similar to the food line, still offering interesting items, food items in the restaurants, but those may not be really fast food. So these are the kind of questions which you have to ask them about which lines they envision getting into in the future. Let us now talk about accompanying which is into packaged goods and I keep talking about food items. Suppose you are working for accompanying which is into juices, the management may like or maybe thinking in terms of getting into mineral water. And after that another line which is for example cookies or chocolates. So this is the understanding that you have to have in terms of the vision not only about your brand, but also about the future lines which top management may be considering getting into. Remember we talked about brand power and brand value. If a brand is very powerful, you should get into different other categories and a powerful brand in other words does take you across categories. And that is how it renders value to the company and also to consumers. You also have to talk with the top management about their understanding of the geographic areas which the company should be covering in times to come. Going back to the same old example again that is company and brand XYZ in the fast food. We did talk about the company confining itself for the time being in the largest market of the country and we did talk about getting into other markets. You have to have the perspective of the top management as to how they think they should be getting into other markets and why they think the company should be getting into other markets. This is where the questions of logistics, supply chain management and distribution come in. And these are all very heavy weight questions until the time that we have very convincing answers to all these that we really have the ability to cope with all the factors encompassed by these questions. We should not go ahead with penetration into additional geographic areas. So I think of an understanding regarding the first question as to what markets and what lines we should be getting into is quite clear. Another question which is an extension of the first question I would say is about the channels. Channel development has emerged as a very important and significant area within the domain of marketing. The traditional channels whereby are going to be sold packaged goods were like from the company's manufacturing facility, the meaning factory, to the company's warehouses in various markets as transit points, to distributors, to maybe wholesalers, to the retailers and then on to the ultimate consumer. That model is still very intact and depending upon the kind of products you're dealing with or the area you're dealing in, you have to determine the layers of those channels. Maybe for one product you have from company to distributors to the retailers and for another product from the company to distributors to wholesalers and then retailers. It could also be from the company to distributors and to the consumers and could also be from the company straight to the consumers depending on the product, its nature and the logistics involved. So all these things have to be taken into account. I was talking about channel development. It has added a new dimension to itself. Because of the development of different kinds of retailing setups in different markets. So what I'm saying is, it is not essential that we stick to just one model. It may well be that we're dealing with two or three different models of distribution using different channels in order to reach the ultimate consumer. The importance goes to the understanding that we as brand managers should have about what kind of channels should be used to get to the consumers. We as brand managers could have that understanding but then we may also like to have the understanding of the top management. Because don't forget one thing, anything that we undertake within the business area means money. New channels, additional channels, new ways of logistics with warehousing, distribution, everything is cost. Everything is translated into rupees and top management does know what are the costs involved. In model A and what are the costs involved in model B. And they are the best people to guide you about the costing. If not the mechanism, they might like to keep that to themselves. At least about the implications of different costing models in terms of all the variables of the marketing mix. And then try to convince you, listen, this is the model which we think is going to be more effective in all respects. In terms of economies of scale, in terms of cutting costs, which of course automatically becomes part of the economies of scale. And also in terms of operational efficiencies. So what it boils down to is the matching of perspectives that you have to have in order to reach a sound finding. There may not be 100% consensus or agreement between yourself and the top management. But then if perspectives match comfortably and if they match in the sense that business can be carried forward. In a viable way, I think that's what it calls for. And that's the way it should be. And you should just move ahead with the future movements. Another question which you must ask the top management is about the financial and strategic goals of the company. You certainly have financial and strategic goals of the brand. But you must ask them how they envision the overall goals. We did talk in quite very details what financial goals are and what strategic goals are. You might get an answer from the top management about the level of revenues that the company is wanting to achieve. And through that level, the positive cash flows, good earnings, profitability, so on and so forth. All those financials the company would like to achieve, the top management might tell you. Or rather they will tell you. They will take you into confidence. Because you are the one who are going to help the company through the brand vision. And through all the details which have been translated from that vision to give results to the company. You are the one who is going to do that. So there is no reason why top management should not share how they envision the overall business in terms of financial objectives. They will also discuss with you rather any very forceful way that following are the strategic objectives which we want to achieve. And those are the level of market share relating different brands including yours. Those relate to overtaking competitors for example in terms of quality. Improving parameters of quality further in order to stay ahead of the market. So that nobody can catch you if you are in that situation. Or if you are in a situation in which you are a follower, you are a strong brand, but you remain a follower following the leader even then you've got to stay abreast of all these thought processes in order to make the right decisions for the brand. After talking about the financial and strategic goals you've got to talk with the top management about what they think are the strengths and weaknesses of the brand. Do not feel shy that you as brand manager should not be asking them about strengths and weaknesses of the brand because the brand falls into your domain. No, it falls into their domain also. Top management is all about business growth and business development. So the brand belongs to them as much as it belongs to you. They must know the strengths and weaknesses. The point is that you have to have their perspective of the strengths and weaknesses. Maybe they talk about strengths of brand which you are not really taking into account in relation to certain future moves for example. Because they may be having certain plans on the back burner for the time being which they're going to kind of unleash or bring to the front burner of which you do not have the knowledge at the moment. So when they start talking about all those plans with you maybe there are certain strengths which you think are going to be very important to know. By the same token the top management will talk about certain weaknesses. Remember no brand is without weaknesses. When I talk about weaknesses it may not only mean that brand doesn't look very attractive and it doesn't really satisfy its consumers. The brand doesn't have good colors or the brand doesn't have good quality. These are given and all these things have got to be there. The weakness may emerge in the area of distribution for example. You have been trying for the last so many years, not as brand manager but your peers. They all have been trying for the last so many years to improve distribution to the point where it should be but they are not successful. Why? Well they cannot find the right distributors in the marketplace. Maybe the kind of distributors they want to have are already engaged by the competition. When you want to acquire them they don't want to listen to you. Or maybe you do not even want to go talk with them because they are your competitors. You want to develop new ones. It takes time. It takes money. It takes time for them to come to the same wavelength, to come to the same level of vision, to develop their people, to have an understanding of the market dynamics the way you have. So this could be one of the weaknesses or the weakness may lie in logistics. This again is a very important area. If I talk with you going back to the example of company XYZ, let me tell you we talk about the fast food market in this country. The cold supply chain within the country is not very effective. It may be effective in relation to certain strong brands because they are so powerful and they are so successful that they have the means to make everything fall in place for them either with the help of other independent businessmen, other business parties or maybe through their own resources, getting into integration. And integration you understand what I am saying is maybe they would like to have a company of their own that deals with logistics or maybe a separate department. If they think this is something which cannot be handled very efficiently and also effectively by an outside party, what happens in that case? The followers or the small brands which are in the making, they suffer because the gap between the economies which strong brand or strong brands can attain is hard for the followers to achieve for obvious reasons.   What's going to happen? You are bound to go to somebody else talking about their willingness to take your stuff to up-country markets and they are saying no in a polite way. Why? It could very well be maybe your stock levels in terms of the volumes are not attractive enough or maybe they are already committed with the biggies. They are carrying the whole truckload for somebody else for a big one and they politely say no to you. What happens? You wait until that system of cold supply chain develops to the point where it becomes economical for you to carry your goods to up-country markets. What is the implication? The implication of all this that you are constrained to expand your market network. You cannot go to other markets. Your brand is very strong in just one market and you keep hearing from so many different quarters of the market including consumers. Why don't you come to that market? You've got such a wonderful brand and the typical answer of marketing people is, yeah, we are considering getting into the market B, market C and market XYC. It's going to take some time. It takes time to develop the brand, to develop all the systems, procedures, so on and so forth. The fact of the matter is that it is one of the very significant variables which is thwarting the process of development. This is one of the important questions in relation to strengths and weaknesses which you have to talk with the top management. I have talked about a weakness which is not only a weakness of the brand but which is a weakness in its overall manifestations. But if it affects the brand, so that is a weakness, we cannot stay oblivious to. We have to take that into account. So that becomes also the kind of a brand weakness. A brand just cannot move to other markets because the means of communication are not there. So your perspective of the top management perspective has got to be clear on that. Otherwise, not talking with them, maybe you will keep blaming them. I don't know why the top management does not really support us. Whereas they've got such a beautiful brand and so on and so forth. The next question which you must ask the top management also relates strengths and weaknesses. You must ask them, how are you going to reinforce the strengths which the brand has? Over that matter, the impact of that on the overall strengths of business of the company. Top management must talk with you about their plans as to how to further fortify and further strengthen the plus points or the strengths they already have. The way they look at those or the brand is so very strong that we are planning to get into other diversified categories for which we are going to have more brand managers because the bright people like you, they might talk in those terms which motivates you, which lets you know the future planning of the company in relation to future products. They may also talk about the human resource because they're going to need, of course it is not a part of your area, the kind of people they're going to need in different departments barring your own. If you think you can help the company in diversifying because it is going to be the same brand which is going to go across the segmental and the category lines. This is one example of the strengths which the top management might talk with you about your brand. There could be other examples but I would leave that to your imagination to think. What could be those? The point is when you talk with the top management about their perception of brand's strengths and how they plan to further fortify those strengths, in the same breath you must also talk with them about their perception of brand's weaknesses and how they think those weaknesses should be fixed. That's the basic objective. Another question which you must ask the top management is about the resources which they think the company should be committing or the company should be deploying for supporting the brand. Well, one of the resources for the brand managers because they must always talk about and they love to talk about is communication, advertising campaigns and this is where there's a lot of debate among different levels of management. One of that involves the brand managers, the marketing manager and the managers from other departments from finance in particular and the top management. It becomes quite very animated and heated as to what kind of money should be spent on sustaining the brand and for its further growth. Other areas where the top management must commit company's resources are very simple to comprehend and very simple to think about. The area of production for example, the area of technology in other words, the area of information technology in order to have the better and more efficient information systems in place so that communication among the various parts of the company takes place very efficiently and also effectively. Right on time, which fulfills your decisional needs. Information is power, don't forget that. Just like the brand carries power, information is also power. That's why so many people, so many managers like to hold it. They don't want to get apart with that. Information must come to you in its fullest, healthiest and vibrant form at the right time so that you can make the right decisions at the right time. Having said that, the commitment of top management can relate areas of human resource development and any other which forms the overall functions of the company. And I would again leave that to your imagination what areas besides the ones I've talked about could be where their commitment should be forthcoming. With this understanding, you are quite very clear as to how top management perceives the brand and the commitments they have to give a practical shape to the perceptions they have about your brand so that overall business objectives can be achieved. You can get on to the next question. And that again is a very, very important question. And you must ask very candidly, even if you're feeling shy, even if you suspect that that might throw the top management into an outrage, you should still ask in very simple, plain, polite words. Will the company be able to achieve its objectives? If not, why? Top management has got to be very candid in telling you yes or no. If the answer is yes, it doesn't take a lot of explanation because they already have talked about the commitments they have. But if the answer is no, you must listen to them. What is it that is going to affect non-fulfillment of certain objectives? Of course, the answer from them is not going to be, no, we just cannot achieve our objectives. Can you imagine that kind of a situation? No, it never will be. It should be like which part of the objectives or which areas are the gray areas because we might run into certain problems and the reason we might run into those problems could be the following. Like the plant we are putting up in such and such area, it may not be commissioned by that time, it may not be operational by that time. The supply chain that we are going to improve with the help of outside parties is not going to be in place. We suspect, that's the way the top management might say. And therefore, part of the objectives may not be fulfilled and then you must ask them, what is going to be the level of impact on the objectives in terms of non-fulfillment? Like for example, if we are wanting to generate a revenue of 100 million rupees, is it going to be like 90 million, 95, or is it going to be 50 million? If the answer is very drastic, you must seek clarification and if it is going to be on the margins, meaning the difference which are the non-fulfillment, the level of non-fulfillment which the top management perceives, then you must take that into account. And having said that, it doesn't mean that you stop working on that. No, you have got to do your best and all your peers and all your colleagues all across the functional lines have got to do their best because the objectives are in place and like I talked as part of the overall management process that everybody right down to the unit levels has got to have measurable objectives so that the level of their achievement could be ascertained and the company must know where one stands for the further development, for further achievement of goals on part of the company and for further development of those individuals themselves. Anyway, having said that, the next question which you must ask them is about any role models which the top management has in its mind. Role models could be competitors and top managers might start talking in terms of the achievements which your direct competition has achieved, maybe in terms of technology, maybe in terms of certain marketing practices, something which is so very obvious in the marketplace that top managers cannot resist talking about and start lecturing for you to emulate that not only you follow that but you also try to surpass whatever they're doing and the role models could also be within the group if the group consists of so many different companies which does happen in so many cases if you happen to be working with a multinational corporation or even if you're working with a local big group which has a lot many companies maybe the role model is not your company but some other company. So the top managers have got to talk about that so that you can follow certain good examples in order to be if not more efficient which primarily should be the case at least as much efficient as that role model is. Consideration is that you determine the financial contribution gap. What does this mean? This means closing the gap between the revenues that the company is generating today with the help of not only your brand but all the brands and the level of revenues which the company envisages in the years to come. We shall start talking about this model in graphical terms in a moment but before I reach there let me tell you the contribution gap has to be fulfilled by all the brands that the company may have and I keep talking about the existence or the presence of different brand managers within a company who are looking after different brands. So you being the brand manager of brand X you've got to be responsible for your P&L profit and loss account probably I've talked about this thing for the first time you being responsible for the profit and loss account of your brand because that certainly is one of the responsibilities of the brand managers. We shall talk about this thing in detail because once we get to this topic point is you are responsible for your P&L and other brand managers are responsible for their P&Ls. You're talking about a multi-brand company if it is a single-brand company that you are the only one responsible for the overall P&L because it's a one-brand company. When you have different brands playing their role, respective roles toward fulfilling this contribution it is obvious and of course without saying that all the brand managers have to come up with their P&Ls the idea is to close the gap which I said earlier let me also tell you that up to this point it is solely and solely the responsibility of brand management and the marketing department. Here you may also need input for the top management but the top management's input is going to come in terms of the various potential levels of various brands. It's a multi-brand company. Keep that in mind. The contribution of this brand has got to be a little higher. The contribution of that brand has got to be even higher. The contribution from that particular brand sounds too ambitious and we don't think that we are going to be in a position to achieve the 100% of that. Let us be realistic and let us not be overly ambitious. So these are the kind of things that you have to determine in order to work out the financial contribution gap that exists between the level of revenues today and the level of revenues which you want to achieve in the years to come. If it is a three-year business model or brand management model you are talking about at the end of the plan period which is year three. So keep that in mind because we are going through a process which is going to educate you as to how to come up with a business plan especially when it comes to brand management and this part of the plan believe me is the dominant part of the overall business plan. The company is going to have a plan from the production side and from the financial side and from the human resource side but the brand plan is going to be very dominant because it really overwhelms all other areas. Why? Because brands generate money. What really bears importance while talking about closing the gap is again a series of questions for brand managers. Now this time these questions have got to be answered by yourselves by the brand managers and not by the top management. You've got to have an answer to things like should we go for the price and fees? That's the first question which we all love to consider. I mean it is basic arithmetic when you work with a brand and you know this is the selling price multiplied by the number of units that I'm selling I get X number of rupees if I increase the price by another 10%, oh my god look at the revenue level the brand is going to bring to the company. The question is it all looks very rosy it looks very tempting but can we really go for the price increase? Is it really possible for us to go for that in a way that the market accepts that? The increase in price from consumers point of view is as or could be as discouraging as it is encouraging or it could be perceptibly encouraging for the brand managers they like to increase their revenues consumers may not like to pay it's not only consumers but also all the members of the trade who are in between when you increase the price can you imagine what happens that has a direct impact on the cash flows of your distributors the amount which they have been sending you as part of the transaction between themselves and your company goes higher if distributor X has been sending you like 100 rupees every time he buys products from you this is just a hypothetical example when he has to send 110 that pinches him so in the first place because he is going to the first fund to discourage you from going for a price increase now this doesn't mean that you shouldn't go for the price increase this doesn't mean that you should be influenced and you should be so much amenable to the discouraging advice of members of the trade maybe they are right and maybe they are not right at a given point in time when you are totally convinced they are not right you may like to put your foot down and go ahead with whatever you are planned again the question is what it boils down to can you really do it I mean trade members can be influenced by you as well as much as they influence you but you can influence them but influencing the consumer is very difficult that is why companies like to have brands which are very very powerful that is why any company introducing a brand or maintaining a brand would like to see that brand the most powerful in its category and that is why experts say that powerful brands or let's put it this way the brand in the category defines the category it transforms the category I mean that's the power of good brands whatever those brands do the category follows that everybody accepts that even consumers are so much in love with your product they wouldn't mind even if they do they still grudgingly will come forward and start paying you the increased price still remains do you have the ability to have the price increase in place so that you can go for a higher level of revenues in the months and years to come and make your brand more powerful, more valuable for the company the next question which you have to answer to yourself is can you expand markets can you expand availability of your brand now this relates to the discussion which we have been having the talk which I have been giving earlier it is very attractive to expand the market network and go to other markets what we have to convince ourselves about is do we have the competencies and do we have the abilities to do that meaning to expand the market network can we really go there we have to look at all the factors which could impede of a progress in doing so or which may prevent us from doing so which really which really stop us from fulfilling our plans to go to those markets and getting back to the old example of logistics I would say that maybe it is the transportation which might to keep you from going to other markets and a very specialized kind of transportation we did talk about the example of the coal supply chain it is such an important area that the government is paying a lot of attention to it and they are going to provide private businesses with the requisite support and in days to come you will see of this problem because of the dimensions that the problem has taken on I have talked about it for your benefit the objective I will repeat is to look into all those areas and to look at all those points which might stop us from expanding our network what those points are and how we can rectify the situation we may not be in a position to rectify the situation overnight but the journey for that has got to be started the next question which is very closely related to what I have talked about is distribution how are you going to make your distribution more extensive and more intensive we have got to have an answer before we move forward let me tell you the difference between extensive distribution and intensive distribution extensive relates more coverage of widespread areas there is an area where you are not present you would like to extend that area and therefore you say that I am extending my distribution and making it extensive you may reach the conclusion with the help of sales people of course with due respect to the sales department you know the finding that the distribution that you already have in place is not very effective only because the coverage that the distributors I mean the present existing distributors are providing is not the 100% it could be widespread but it is not very intense and the jump areas so you may like to have more distributors covering the same areas and intensify your distribution there so the answers which have got to have to your question is what are the areas where you would like to extend and what are the areas where you would like to intensify your distribution and distribution for the point of view of making your product freely available the product may not always mean a tangible product like a packaged good a pack of cigarettes for example a pack of juice a pack of biscuits a can of edible oil distribution can also relate selling of service products have you thought of the courier services maybe there is a courier service which is very efficient but you always think to yourself I wish they had more distribution points or more sales points from that point meaning I wish they had more offices so that I would not be traveling that far to go to their office so that also falls in the area of distribution and in other words by having better distribution extensive distribution or intensive distribution you make your product or services whatever you are selling more freely available after you have the answer to this question the next one is can you really improve communication this is another question which demands and warrants your attention and I know many brand managers would like to go for more and more communication more and more creative campaigns the answer again has to be what is the ability of the company to do for my particular brand and part of the answer to this question you already have received from the top management with that perspective I think it should not be difficult for brand managers to determine the level of communication that should be taking place because it involves money and the financial level which is going to be attached to the level of communication that you are wanting to have with your consumers is pretty well known to you so this is another ability or disability which you must know before you embark on developing the brand management process and model so to say before I talk about this point or this question in detail I would like to wrap up today's lecture for the paucity of time and I will continue my discussion in the next lecture from this very point which is about the segmentation and expansion of the offerings that you may have under the one brand that you are looking after let me give you the recap we started talking about the brand vision the purpose of brand vision and mostly the thrust of the lecture today has been the word how we build that vision we are still going through that phase and very much in the middle of it I would like to continue in the next lecture thank you very much for the time being and I look forward to seeing you next time with our office


card number 33 Edwin Mies the third fed 759029 Zed Edwin Mies the third who is Edwin Mies the third attorney general card number 33 Edwin Mies the third attorney general after the hasn't fast crashed C card number 29 U.S. Attorney General Edwin Mies the third delayed FBI and customs investigations of southern air transport the CIA company which had owned the down plane but the U.S. missile sales to Iran were exposed in Lebanese Journal on November 4th 1986 and a full-scale investigation became inevitable. Mies told the press on November 25th that while on a fact-finding mission for the president he had discovered a memo in Oliver North's office indicating that profits from the sale of missiles to Iran had been diverted to the Contras. Mies stated that when he informed President Reagan of this of his discovery the president had claimed total ignorance. During the ensuing investigation the question of whether or not Reagan had known about the diversion was debated at length. The more serious issue the ballast basic illegality of the war against Nicaragua was all but ignored. Mies's inept handling of the investigation his failure to secure North's office or to take notes while questioning the principles allowed much much evidence to be destroyed. Edwin Mies was investigated repeatedly concerning allegations of influence peddling and shady financial deals. He finally resigned on July 5th 1988 claiming the investigation had vindicated him. Subsequent publications of the special prosecutors report indicated however that Mies may well have committed criminal acts. Whether or not he obstructed justice during his term as chief law enforcement officer of the U.S. deserves further investigation. Edwin Mies. The third.


So what I'm going to focus on a lot of the material that's what we didn't coordinate this It's just that Jeff Carlson. I it's remarkable how much our talks are going to overlap But yet there's enough distinction that I think you'll see you know our themes are consistent But we're giving you slightly different information if you need This this power point you don't need it if you want this PowerPoint afterwards I'll just obviously ask me and we'll figure our way for you to get this because again I know people in the back might not be able to see this So what I'm going to go through here is the dot-com bubble the housing bubble and then future Crash question mark because what I want to show you is even though the stuff that we're telling you Obviously, there's a sampling bias here. That's sort of people in this room You guys are kind of weird is that a fair thing to say right? So your co-workers look at you a little bit oddly perhaps you maybe keep keep your opinions to yourself when you're out in about town So I realized that you know, we all think the same on these issues and that's why you're here and you're kind of probably hearing things They're consistent But what I want to show you is this way of looking at the world the stuff that Jeff and Carlos have talked about that I'm going to be going over this really did explain what happened for the last crash and that you know Austrians really were not shocked to see that whereas a lot of mainstream people were If you take nothing else away from this talk if you haven't ever seen it go to YouTube And we wait till I'm done talking but do it afterwards go to YouTube and look up Ben Bernanke was wrong Okay, and then make sure you get a good one There's like compilations of it you know get one that's got 50,000 plus views to make sure it's a good juicy one and you'll just see that Bernanke back from 2006 before he was even Fed chair when he was just like on a council of economic advisors in every step Of the way was wrong about what was coming like back then that he was on like CNBC and they're like no Ben they're saying that there's there's maybe a housing bubble What do you think and he was like well there might be some froth froth in the subprime sector But we don't think you know and it'd be a lot of froth didn't it and and then every step of the way then the next His next thing I think he was in front of Congress and they were saying you know Do you think there's gonna be a recession and he and this was like in early 2007 and he goes oh no no It's there there might be you know the housing sector is in trouble We don't think it'll spill over into the broader real economy then the next time the clip shows him saying oh Yeah, there's definitely going to be a recession, but we don't think it'll be too bad And it was just all along the way that he was wrong. Okay, and again remember he got reappointed too, right? So it just showing you that you know Washington DC is not a meritocracy and so it's not merely that we're Contrarians here and also it's it's not just that we're always, you know doom and gloomers that I will tell you when I get to there's one slide in here out of my whole power point That's actually optimistic just to give you a sense of the ratios Okay, there's a lot of pessimistic slides just to warn you, okay But what I want to show you is that the Austrian approach Explained that to kind of give you confidence that you know this this stuff. We're relying on here. This really did come to fruition last time around Okay, so first let me just again go through the theory pretty quickly and then give you some of the facts So what causes the business cycle the speakers today? We all subscribe to the theory that was developed by Ludwig von Mises First in his book the theory of money and credit and then throughout his career He elaborated upon it and then you know one of his leading followers Friedrich Hayek who actually won the Nobel Prize in 74 Largely for his work developing what we could call the Mises Hayek theory of the business cycle So the a quick introduction I'm sure a lot of people in this room You know some of you are experts in this but some of you may have never heard someone just stop and spell it out So let me just give you the big picture of this the way to understand the Austrian theory is sustainable versus unsustainable growth and So if there's genuine savings then that fuels sustainable growth, right? That's it's not an Aberration for living standards to rise over time. That's normal in a market economy Because as Jeff was stressing in his remarks people live below their means right they have an income They save some of it that accumulates capital equipment So part of the way to understand that is yes, there's technological discoveries We know how to do more stuff now than people a hundred years ago did but also our workers have more tools and equipment to work with Okay, so that's partly why our standard of living is higher is because previous generations were saving and accumulating capital all along So there's nothing weird about a rising stock market over a long-term period If that's you know that that could be a barometer of the genuine health of an economy There's no reason if output keeps rising it doesn't need to collapse suddenly and One of the things that helps coordinate that are interest rates So interest rates as Jeff was stressing in his stock are market prices and they coordinate what consumers are doing And what firms are doing and the crucial thing about an interest rate is it has to do with time Okay, now for our remarks today, obviously, I got to be brief on this and sort of giving you the intuition But the idea like if you're a business person You know that the interest rate like if you have a long-term project and you're trying to decide should I pull the trigger on this project Or not, you know It involves a lot of upfront costs and then you have projections about the revenue It might bring in down the road to say is this a good idea or not? What do you need to know? You need to know what's the discount rate that I'm using on this cash flow projection You need to turn future dollars into present dollars to put them on an apples to apples basis to see over the next ten years Is this thing profitable or not? You need to know what's the relationship between future dollars and present dollars. That's what interest rates give you Okay, so that's a crucial Price in the market to help coordinate things over time so it's consistent So the economy doesn't grow too fast then sputter out or you know The amount people want to save and defer to the future. How do entrepreneurs know that? How do they know they should invest in long-term projects because people are willing to wait for it? Well, that's what interest rates do. That's the job. They do in a market economy if they're the correct price So what happens now if the commercial banks and modern times aided and abetted by central banks? If they flood the loan market with unbacked credit that artificially low rates that screws everything up Right, it's the wrong price now So it's like the interest rate if it's artificially low is giving a signal to entrepreneurs Saying go ahead and invest in long-term projects because people have saved more But what if people really didn't save more? What if the reason interest rates are down is not because everybody is being real frugal? But instead because the Fed decided to buy a bunch of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and it created money Electronically out of thin air to do it. Well, then you can see how there's going to be a disjoint in the economy entrepreneurs are going to be investing starting long-term projects because the interest rate signals giving them a green light But yet people haven't saved more on the contrary if it's a boom people are saving less and Interest rates are down so they don't want to save on that account and they feel rich because it's a boom period So you can see how the different pockets or segments of the economy are doing incompatible things It would make sense. It's fine to invest in longer-term projects If people are willing to defer consumption for a few years until those new goods come out of the pipeline That's all consistent, you know over time that that meshes those plans are compatible What doesn't work is if everybody? Like in terms of wage earners and so on if they want to consume more they want to big buy big fancy houses They want to go out to the movies more and so on buy a sports car While the entrepreneurs are thinking oh we can invest in longer-term projects because there's more capital available Those two things can't be true at the same time and yet that's what happens during an unsustainable boom period Okay, and so again the the cheap bank credit and low interest rates They cause an unsustainable boom which inevitably leads to a crash So I think jeff stressed this in his remarks in the austrian framework It's sort of flipped from the conventional narrative in the austrian framework the boom When everybody feels great and the unemployment rates real low everyone's getting you know You can quit your job go get a better job somewhere else things are good business earnings are high The austrians look at that and they're worried and they say this is this is artificial Okay, whereas that's the thing that most mainstream economists when they give policy advice They're trying to go back to that the austrians are saying that's where the seeds were sown For the crisis that's coming and so then when the crisis hits the austrians are like well Yeah, what do you think was going to happen? This needs to happen this cleansing period It's painful, but we got to rearrange resources and get them back on a sustainable trajectory So the recession period is actually healthy in a perverse sense from the austrian framework And policymakers to use that euphemism They should just keep their hands off and let it do what it needs to do Okay, so this general framework i've given you let me just point out that Economists who are relying on the sort of thing that i'm talking about they predicted the housing crash years in advance There's lots of quotes There's some great stuff like that ron paul was doing from the congressional floor in the early 2000s But let me just give you one quotation So i'll read it first then i'll tell you who it was So he says higher interest rates should trigger a reversal in the housing market and expose the fallacies of the new paradigm This exposure will hurt homeowners and the larger problem could hit the american taxpayer Who could be forced to bail out the banks and government sponsored mortgage guaranters Okay, so that is clearly what did happen in fact going into the housing crisis That was economist mark Thornton, you know on staff down in auburn alabama. He was at the works for the mesas institute And he said that back in june of 2004 Okay, so it's eerie when you see how accurately he nailed that and again It's you know Thornton relying on standard austrian business psychotherapy to uh to make these sorts of uh commentary about the At that time everybody was real excited about the great housing boom Okay, so now Let's let me just show you some some data and again for people in the back You're not going to be able to fully make this out But uh, I just want to show this isn't just words up here and the fact that you know, oh, we don't like the federal reserve Or I mean to be clear we don't like the federal reserve, but it's not merely our distaste I want to show you that the numbers actually fit this stuff like you can go and and point to charts And and and tell the story and talk about turning points and what I have you so this is the federal funds rate This is the one that you know, carlsson and jeff are both talking about so I'll tell you the timeline. So down here. This is 1998 1999 2000 And then this is the recession remember there was the terrorist attacks and then the dot com crash So this was the recession in the early 2000s george w bush was in office And you can see the federal funds rate was at six and a half percent And then they brought it all the way down to one percent by june of 2003 held it there for a year And then in june 2004 they started hiking every time the fed met They would you know raise raise a 25 or 50 basis points Okay, so the same playbook that they're doing now. It was just not as severe back then that up the dot com crash Terrorist attacks the economies on the ropes. What do you do? Keynesian textbook move you cut interest rates That's how you stimulate from the monetary side and they were calling green span He was the chair at the time remember they were calling him the maestro They were very happy at how he engineered a takeoff and housing prices Even admits what should have been on paper at least a bad recession So people don't call him maestro too much anymore okay, so Now Taking a further step back here a broader picture you can see so this blue line is still the what was happened with interest rates This red line I put on top is the case schiller Home price index and so you can see that when the you know, they cut interest rates And then started raising them and so you see this red line really zooms up in the mid 2000s That's when the housing bubble really was accelerating and then it turned and started crashing after they had fully raised interest rates back up to their new plateau Okay, so again You know the timeline fits that general narrative I was giving you that the fed the dot com crashed the fed eased by cutting rates that started blowing up the housing bubble You know prices started rising the consumer prices the stuff doesn't the fed it kind of gets worried about our god We can't keep interest rates down at 1% that would be crazy So they started raising and then once they were full, you know, finished with that normalization cycle That's when home prices turned around and then started crashing hard And then of course what they do well They started cutting again because that's what you do when the economy is bad you cut interest rates when the economy is Healthy you start raising rates. That's the standard Keynesian move Okay, so as you well know, Bernanke did the same thing Qualitatively but quantitatively he did much worse Okay, so here is a long-term view of interest rates. Again, we didn't plan this This is we all decided to use the same boring charts with you guys But this is the federal funds rate. You can see this is 1960 Up to the present. So I did this long view And I think that's probably why Jeff was showing it also Just to show you this is not we're not like just cherry picking and looking at the last 15 years or something Over the long term you can see how ridiculously low interest rates have been this is not normal And so over this whole post war era You can see interest rates how high they were and then this right here Is what green span did that we're going to say had something to do with the housing bubble and now you can see what Bernanke did. So what I want to point out is 1% is higher than zero But also look at the the length of time that it was down at 1% For green span for literally just 12 months Whereas with Bernanke and then going into yelling when they started raising That period of 0% effectively interest rates that was for seven full years Okay, so it wasn't just that the interest rates were lower, but they kept them at that low level for seven years So the point being if I if you bought the story a little bit And you think yeah, what green span did after the dot-com crash probably had something to do with at least How big the housing bubble got to be Then you can see why this should be alarming The problem with this though is this understates how much more Bernanke did because once interest rates get down to zero It's hard to push them lower than that because people would just go to currency So a better thing is to look at the stuff that like jeff was showing you with the you know the big monetary base So here i've got the blue line So the title of this slide is stock market tied to the fed from 2009 to 2016 Because a lot of people were like oh you naysayers you're complaining about several We you know once the economy bottomed out and we got our recovery Then look at how the stock market's booming and i'm glad I didn't listen to people like you Okay, and that's that's fine if you're timing it right, but I just want to show people So if you chart from 2009 to january of 2017, so I didn't like have to fiddle with this This is just what the st. Louis feds website generated by me picking these two series The blue line is the feds Sorry, the blue line is the s and p 500 and the red line is the st. Louis monetary base So that's the the thing jeff was showing you so you could see This was qe1 then they stopped on qe2 they stopped on qe3 Okay, so the red line showing how the fed and spurts Kept buying assets then would back off then buy assets back off and so on and you can see how tightly The stock market index moved You know with that thing if you pick the appropriate scaling on the vertical axes Okay, and so it's and if you remember for those of you who are really in the financial markets This this relationship Like that's partly why when the fed decided to launch another round of qe and they would point to you know softness in the economy One of the things they looked at was the stock market Okay, so it's partly you know in other words the red line starting to move up was partly because they were seeing stock prices Were faltering and so they thought all the economy needs more stimulus. Let's start buying some more bonds All right, so you can see how tightly those were together So just in general think of all the bad things economically the obama administration was doing and you know and this isn't political This is just you know standard economic stuff if you think markets generally work, you know, they are running trillion dollar deficits I think four years in a row They uh massive takeover of the health care and health insurance sectors Talking about you know raising the minimum wage several times some of that was signed, you know by george w bush But you know that that did happen in these years Threatening people with a big intervention into the energy sector, you know with a cap and trade and carbon didn't go through But you know threatening having all kinds of regulations on emissions and so forth So there were a lot of things They were doing that you would expect to have hurt the economy To see the stock market booming like that and then to see how it goes hand in glove With the fed just creating money and buying government debt and mortgage backed securities Should make you think that that stock market Correlation there is not because investors realize how great the future was Now let me mention. I I didn't continue it because after trump's election the stock market did rise Some and so this they would you know if you kept this going then the stock market would seem to have gone above With the because the fed was not buying bonds after trump got elected. Okay, and so When I say that the trump card here I will um Say that the stock market rise since his election I have no problem saying that's due to like fundamental legitimate factors Again, not being political but just in terms of the stuff he was saying he was going to do like after the initial scare And people were like, oh, yeah, he maybe you know He's going to do all these things that he said he was going to do like deregulate and so Tax cuts, what have you it would make sense for you know Given what stocks were on the eve of the election and they thought there was going to be a hillary clinton administration Then he comes in once people got over the shock of that It makes sense to me that stock prices would go up that they would revise their forecast of profitability and so on So that that's fine But i'm saying clearly even before the election in my mind that the stock market had been pushed way up By what the fed had been doing Okay, so this is maybe a way of seeing it. We're now tightening after a prolonged period of easy money So again, I believe me. I understand especially carlsson I have been going around for those of you in natural you've you've heard this story And you might say well you guys were complaining about this five years ago Well when they're doing an awful policy for seven years that shows our consistency, right? We were talking about it all along so If you think about it the austrian story is they pump money and cheat money pushes down interest rates And that gives a false boom and then they start hiking and then they pull credit out and that's when the crash happens Okay, so they really have just recently started tightening and so You know if there's a big crash that happens as they continue to tighten that's just that would be standard You know looking back that's standard austrian theory It's the reason it seems like wow What we're just perma bears is because they had this crazy policy in place for so long But they are tightening at this point So now that i've complained so much about Monetary policy. Let me just say a few words here Uh about fiscal policy So it is true that the um The tax cut clearly it was not designed the way you know in other words that they had told me This is how much revenue you're allowed to spend or forfeit in terms of a static analysis And go ahead and do something that you think is economically good, but also we can sell to the public I would not have Done the particular package they did i mean carls has some great research He did the lara murphy report on this like it really was like Paul krubin's caricature of republicans giving handouts to the wealthy and so on with Surprisingly little you know crumbs thrown to the working class But still the government taking less of people's money that's i'm always on board that so i've given that it happened i'm glad it did Uh, but it is true that you know once you you build on all the assumptions is standard scorekeeping It is amazing how much the federal debt's going to explode According to even conservative estimates So even if people aren't factoring in that there's going to be a crash Right if they assume the economy is just going to gradually keep growing and things are going to go back to normal The the numbers so there's no way that people in the back are going to see this But the congressional budget office came out with a recent thing they're saying Starting in fiscal year 2020 so the federal budget fiscal year starts in on october 1st That you're going to have a trillion dollar deficits forever Okay for the next you know as far as the eye can see the deficit just structurally in there You know the way it's built in with the mismatch of revenues to spending That the deficit is going to be a trillion dollars plus and that's there's no that there's no reason for that to fix Itself with current policy. Okay, so this isn't like you know under the obama years they could say Well, we're in the midst of what was going to be the worst crisis since the great depression No kidding. We had trillion dollar deficits, but then it sank down once the economy, you know recovered They don't have that excuse here. This is a normal economy. They're forecasting and yet they're saying Yeah, we're on the numbers here. It's we're going to have trillion dollar deficits perpetually and the federal debt Held by the public So my figure is lower than the ones what jeff and carls were showing you was the total outstanding stuff counting like the social security trust fund You net all that stuff out just what the outside world Is holding in treasuries that's projected to hit 29 trillion by the year 2028 Okay, which is only a decade away at this point. All right, so again, you could just see the the corner. They've painted themselves into Even people who don't understand austrian business cycle theory. Just look at these numbers are wondering What's the exit strategy here because as jeff was stressing they're kind of between a rock and a hard place Is as regular prices start rising, you know the the unemployment right now is very low by the official measures So they can't continue to have these artificially low interest rates because all the economy's so weak Like they've run out of that excuse. They kind of have to start letting interest rates rise But yet with this much debt that they've added and are going to continue adding That the interest rates are going to be huge. So it's sort of like The debt they ran up during the obama years Didn't feel as painful because at the same time the fed pushed interest rates down to zero Okay, so it's you know like if you're Getting credit card offers and you can keep rolling over your balances at zero percent APR for you know, six month 12 month Promotional periods you can go run off the credit card bill and it doesn't feel painful You get a lot of good stuff and it doesn't feel painful But then once those introductory offers run out and you start getting you know regular interest rates hitting you Then all of a sudden the full Amount of your profligacy comes home and you realize just how much you overspent So I think that's the the situation we're in And so you know you can see that they can try to keep interest rates low But that's just going to make the reckoning that much worse You know as the economy overheats the way kainzine would talk about and yet once they start letting interest rates rise You're going to have that Not only a crash from the Austrian point of view, but even putting that aside Just the interest rates on this debt are going to be Just it's not going to work They're going to have to either just cut a bunch of everything else just to pay interest Or like Jeff says come up with some way to give people a haircut And they'll probably come up with euphemisms and the way to do it So it's not construed as an explicit default because after all the u.s. Treasury, you know is the safest investment on planet earth They're not going to want to give that up, but they're they're running out of options and uh I know it's it's it's real easy like I've refrained from making cracks about donald trump just because it's so lazy at this Point like that's what every person does on twitter But it certainly does not seem like he's laying awake at night worrying about the cbo report about the debt in 2028 I'll just put it that way that does not seem to be something that's keeping up at night And then he's coming up with long-term strategies It seems like people are thinking one week ahead with the policies they're putting into place And we've gotten to the point where you know these things it used to be I remember what you know, I'm not that old But I remember when I was younger people talk about the entitlement crisis and and everything was always 30 40 years in the future when bad stuff was going to kick in Unless we turn it around now at this point It's like no starting two years from now the death's going the deficit is going to be a trillion dollars plus going forward unless we start making changes So that's that's the window now that we're dealing with Uh, and none of the changes is going to be good. So I hope you enjoy your lunch. Thanks everybody


Remember a Hallmark card when you carry enough to send the very best. Hallmark reading cards bring you and life. In Isabel Dick's Wild Orchard on the Hallmark Playhouse. Big Hallmark will bring you Hollywood's greatest stars in outstanding stories chosen by one of the world's best known authors. The distinguished novelist, Mr. James Hilton. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. This is James Hilton. Tonight on our Hallmark Playhouse we present a story by Isabel Dick called Wild Orchard. You know on our Playhouse we're rather partial to stories of pioneer life because they do portray so vividly the problems and solutions that made our country great. But now for a change we cross the Pacific and tell a story which shows how the same pioneering spirit lived and thrived in the lands down under. Tasmania where our Wild Orchard was and Australia the great neighbouring continent were built like our own out of the rich and rough life of brave men and women and their histories are the sum total of countless personal adventures. To star in such an adventure tonight we have chosen most appropriately one of Hollywood's most delightful actresses, young and enchanting and life. And now here is Frank Goss from the makers of Hallmark cards. When you want to remember your friends there's one way to be sure the card you send receives an extra welcome. Look for that identifying Hallmark on the back when you select it. For words to express your feelings and designs to express your good taste that Hallmark on the back is your guide. Like the sterling on silver it's a mark of distinction that all quickly recognize and it tells your friends you cared enough to send the very best. And now Hallmark Playhouse presenting Isabel Dick's Wild Orchard starring Ann Blythe. A long way from the friendly orchards of Harriet's childhood to the wild untamed orchards on the island of Tasmania off the coast of Australia. A long way from the cannon's lovely young daughter to the plowman from down under. Yet youth could cross those miles and make them seem as nothing. I met Jan when I was 17. I had been locked in my room as a punishment for some crank I cannot even remember. And since every locked door was a challenge to me in those days I had escaped through a window and gone running across the field to the road to the village. It was a road I had known all my life. It came a road I had never walked before. It led uphill and downhill beside Meadow and River from childhood to womanhood. Or at the end of it I found Jan. He was guiding a plow across the furrows and he stopped and waved when he saw me. Hello there. He was a stranger but I ran down the hill toward him ran headlong into the adventure of my life.  Not today I won't fall down today. How do you know? Oh because this is my day it belongs to me. How do you figure that? Oh it's mine because I stole it.  I'm locked up in my room right now as far as father's concerned. That's why I've stolen the day.  You must be the daughter of the village reprobate. I am the daughter of the cannon. Weren't you in the cathedral on Sunday to hear my father's sermon? Oh the daughter of the cannon. What's your name? Harry. Harry that's no name for a girl. Oh well my name's really Harriet but that's no name for me. No I guess it isn't. That's no name for a girl who runs about stealing days while her father's bankers turn. What's your name? Jan Halifax. Oh yes of course I've heard about you. You're the man from Australia who's working for the Dilla Day. That's right. Your father has a tannery in Australia. You have five sisters and you're working as a hired hand for the Dilla Day so you can learn about growing hops. Then you're going home and grow them. How did you know all that? News travels fast here. Oh I should say it does. Well I must say you know far more about me than I know about you. Well there's not much to know about me. Nothing much has ever happened to me until today. I did not run home. I walked home slowly, reflectively. Lost in dreams that had no beginning and no ending. A man had smiled. And I was a child no longer. And the bright glad road I had taken on a day I had stolen had led into enchantment. A few days later I stole an evening and went to the village fair. I saw Jan standing by the carousel. Well if it isn't the cannon's daughter are you on another stolen halving? As a matter of fact I am. Are you afraid to be locked in your room again? I'm afraid I am. Why? Well I'm supposed to be locked up tonight because I didn't stay locked up the other day. Here take my arm. Let's walk down the road a bit of this episode. It'll be all over the village by morning. Oh it'll be all over the village anyhow and I may be locked up for a week. But it'll be worth it. To escape is worth almost any penalty is it? To escape and to see you. How am I to take that? Are you flirting with me, teasing me, leaving me on? Perhaps. You see I've only grown up very recently. I suppose I'm still experimenting. Don't experiment on me. Just say what you really mean. What? I don't know quite what to talk to you about. You come from such a long way off. What is it like in your country? Well it's rough and untamed. We have to depend on convict labor for a good deal of our work. But there's something growing, beginning a new country taking shape and form under our hands. And you will be part of it. I am part of it. I have a piece of land on the island of Tasmania, just off the coast. There's only a shack on it now. But I'm going back and clear the land and cultivate. I'm going to build a fine big house. And will you live in that house? Alone? I hope not, Harry. I hope not.  Yes, Father. Harriet, on Saturday night when I ordered you to remain in your room, did you run away and go to the village fair? Yes, Father. Harriet, what am I going to do with you? You're absolutely incorrigible. Yes, Father. Now Harriet, a young man has been here. His name is Giant Halifax. Do you know him? Yes, Father. This young man tells me that he's from Australia. His father has died. He must leave for home almost immediately. Yes, Father. This young man is quite highly spoken of by the dillardes and other mutual friends. He seems to come a good family. He makes a good impression. Yes, Father. Perhaps if I were a young girl, I might have been tempted to visit the fair myself under the circumstances. This young man, Giant Halifax, has asked my permission to marry you. Would this make you happy, Harriet? Yes, Father. Oh, yes, Father. Get to my wedded wife. To love and to cherish. To love and to cherish. The words were old. The love at word. Measured out for us in the stately voice of my father. I now pronounce you man and wife. Those whom God had joined together, let no man put asunder. Beyond my father's voice a ship waded. A new country, a new life. Jan kissed me and led me from the church into the future. During the voyage, Jan told me of his island. Tasmania's wild country, Harry. As I warned you, almost all the laborers are convicts from England. And apart from the ones under control, a large bands of convicts that have escaped. They roam the countryside at will, pilfering, plundering, sometimes even murdering. Bushwhackers, they're called. I've been wondering now if it's safe to take you there. Oh, you told me there were other women there. Yes, in the settlement. It's uncultivated and in some ways unprotected. I'm not afraid, Jan. You want me to be with you, don't you? Harry, I want you more than anything in the world. I can't tell you how I feel about it. My land. Mine. Oh, I can't wait to see it. Oh, tell me again, what's the house like? It's just one room, now one big room built around a stone fireplace. But we'll add to it. Before we're finished, we'll have a mansion. A mansion set in the heart of the wild orchard. You'll see our land before the month is over and you'll see the house. Oh, Harry, even though it's only one room now, I know you'll like it. We landed in Australia. We spent a few days in the house Jan's father left on the mainland, getting ready to start into the wilderness. While Jan saw to his father's estate, I explored the town. The Halifax tannery was one of the main industries, and the income we would receive from that would help finances until Jan was able to get the land producing. He put an overseer in charge of the tannery, and then he bought a wagon and team and we loaded it with furniture and supplies. And we were at last on our way. We crossed the bluest water I had ever seen to the island of Tasmania. We made our way along the river beside giant mimosit trees and gnarled wild apple orchards. We made our way deeper and deeper into the jungle growth called the bush. And finally, we turned into an old gate with the name Halifax cut into it, and Jan stood up in the wagon. I never realized how loud the river was before. That's going to be almost in your front yard, Harry.  You'll see the house in a moment just as soon as we get around the bend.  Well, now then the house should be in place. Whoa, whoa, there. Where is the house, Jan? Well, it should be right over there. It's hard to see looking into the sun like this. Here, jump down, Harry. We'll have a look. Oh, that looks like a chimney over there, Jan. It is a chimney. Harry, look, these charred logs. The house has been burned. Burned? Who would burn it? Savages or bush rangers from out there in the bush? Stay here now. I have to take you back to the mainland. What are you going to do? I'm going to get some laborers and start a new house. Then I'm staying here with you. I can't keep you here, Harry. It might be dangerous. I'll just put up a tent for myself. If you're going to stay, Jan, I'm going to stay with you. We'll build our new home together. I'm sorry I got you into all this. To bring your way out here and find no house for you. Oh, don't be sorry, Jan. I'm not. Well, because we built it together. I guess I picked the right girl to bring out here. I'm going to love it here. It's beautiful country, isn't it, Harry? It is beautiful, Jan. House or no house, I feel as though I've really found a home in this wild orchard. In just a moment, we'll return to the second act of Wild Orchard, starring Anne Blythe. Have you looked out of the trees lately? It's along about this time of year that one day we look and the leaves we become accustomed to seeing green have suddenly taken on new colors, or may not even be there at all. In short, it's October. And quickly, before we even realize it, it'll be Christmas. Now, you may be one of those who enjoys the last-minute rush of selecting gifts, but there's one gift I think you'll enjoy even more if you select it early and with care. That's the Christmas card you want imprinted with your name. For your card is a gift, you know. It represents your thoughtfulness and good taste to all the friends you want to remember at Christmas. That's why I think you'll want to see the Hallmark album containing the beautiful new 1951 Hallmark Personalized Christmas cards. You'll find this Hallmark album at fine stores across the country. And right now, you can make your selection leisurely and with care, selecting the very card you'd like to have imprinted with your name. You'll find there are Hallmark Christmas cards to meet every taste and every budget. And each one is designed with the good taste you come to expect from any card bearing that familiar Hallmark on the back. And that's a symbol of quality all instantly recognized and realize you cared enough to send the very best. Now back to James Hilton and the second act of Wild Orchard, starring Anne Blythe. And started to build their home in the heart of a Wild Orchard. Anne hired the only labor available, prison labor. Foundations were dug and the building begun. And during those first months in the wilderness, Harriet realized she was going to have a child. I met Jan when I was 17. As I ran down a road I had known all my life. A road that suddenly became one I had never walked before. I followed it out of the land of my own people into a strange foreign land on the other side of the world. I found a home on that road beside a wilderness river. Don't walk in, Harry. It's the custom to carry the bride over the threshold, you know. Here we go. A bride? Why, we've been married over a year now.  There you are. Oh, funny. I've watched it build every foot of the way, and yet I feel as though I'm seeing it for the first time. Oh, Jan. I'll sit by that fireplace and rock my baby's cradle. I'll stand by this window and wave to you as you go down to the fields in the morning. I'll stand in that doorway and wait for you in the evening. And you'll be building a country. And I'll be building a home. You'll be helping build the country, too. They go hand in hand. And by the time our son grows to manhood, the land will be tamed, laid out in civilized acres. And the house will be mellowed and seen, part of the land. Oh, Jan. Oh, darling, darling, what's the matter? In a little Disney. You better hitch up the wagon. I've got to get to town, the doctor. Harry, sit down.  No, no, hitch up the wagons, Jan. Hurry. Oh, hurry. No sound so full of proper hope. A skilful slap by the doctor and my son was thrust into the world with a lusty cry of protest. I held him in my arms and thought of England. I thought of fine old houses and cultured gardens. I thought of trees.  Crouched just right for a child. I thought of all the wonderful things a boy might see and do in England. And then I thought of Tasmania. I thought of my son growing up in the bush country. There was much he would miss. But he would see for himself the effort, the labor, the strength, the sacrifice that must go into a home. Things would not come easily for him. All that came would have to be earned. He might gain more than he lost by being born in the wilderness. So I held him against my heart and dreamed. When I went home, our first crops were beginning to thrust green heads for the rich black soil. I looked at them with pride and with a sense of achievement. I was completely unprepared for what Jan had to say to me. Harry, would you like to live on the mainland? Live on the mainland? You remember that I put a man in charge of my father's business? The tannery, yes. He's walked off with all the money in the till, left the men unpaid, left the business in heaven knows what condition. So I have to go over and straighten things out. Harry, you know my father left a fine house. I thought perhaps you might like to live there. I could take charge of the tannery and... What about this house that is hardly finished? What about the crops that are starting to grow? What about all that we were going to do here? It would be a different life, but perhaps it would be a happier, more secure life for you and the baby. Yes, it would be that. There would be more comforts in a house in town. It would be a gayer life. We would be closer to people. Oh, but Jan, we would just be picking up the threads of your father's life. We've started a life of our own out here. We have our crops, our home, our family. This land, it's part of you. It's your life. Jan, I want you to sell the tannery. Sell it? Yes, sell it so this discussion can never come up again. This is where you belong. It's where I belong. And it's where our son belongs. If I sell the tannery, it'll be a loss, and we won't have the income we've had from that behind us. We'll manage. Other people have managed, and we can do it. It's what you want, isn't it, Jan? Isn't this where you want to live? It is where I want to live, Harry. Then we'll stay, Jan. We'll stay. Jan left the next day for the mainland. I remained alone in the house with a baby. Jan wanted one of the hired hands to stay in the house, but I was not afraid. It did not even occur to me to be frightened until I ended the house one night about dusk and found a strange man in my living room. Then and only then did I think of the bands of roving convicts, the bush rangers, the man that sat at ease in my living room and the manors of an English gentleman. He rose as I entered. There was nothing frightening about him until you looked in his eyes. Good evening, ma'am. Is Mr. Halifax at home? No, he isn't. It occurred to me that he might not be, and then it also occurred to me that if he wasn't, this charming lady might offer me a cup of tea. It will be my pleasure. The kettle is on. It will soon be hot. I don't think it was wise of Mr. Halifax to leave you alone and unprotected. He didn't think it was wise either, but I persuaded him that I would be quite all right.  What brought you here? I'm not here by choice. You must have chosen whatever it was that brought you here. Perhaps the same basic aims led us both here. Longing for adventure, the excitement of unknown danger. Are you excited now, Mrs. Halifax? No. The danger is not unknown. I'm quite aware of it. Why don't you scream then? Why don't you run for help? Aren't you afraid of me? Let me prepare your tea. I have 30 men out there. You're alone, quite alone. We planned to rifle the house, and if you made trouble, silence you. Do you take milk with your tea? I could almost believe I was in an English drawing room again being soundly wrapped in the knuckles by a disapproving aunt. Rifle the house, if you will. I have learned in the wilderness that one can live without any possessions. Burn the house, if you like. I've also learned that all houses can be built again. Silence me. Someone else will come here to live in my place. Nothing ends. Life is a continuing pattern. One person puts something down, another picks it up. No. No, I'm not afraid of you. I'm sorry for you. Sorry for? Yes. Sorry that you must live as you do. Sorry that you must steal when others can earn. Have you any idea who I am? Yes. You are a man without a home, without a name, without a family. I could not possibly fear you. My pity is too great. I came back early to surprise you, Harriet. I didn't realize you had a guest. This gentleman lost his way and stopped by to ask some directions, Jan. Can I help you, sir? Thank you, no. Your wife has already obliged. Good day, Mrs. Halifax. You're quite right. I had lost my way. I may not find my way, although your directions were quite good. But I shall remember you on my journey. Good day. He didn't give his name. I didn't ask for it. I was worried about you. The Bush rangers are out again. I've been quite all right, darling, except I missed you. Harry, I sold the tannery. You sold the tannery? Oh, Jan, that's wonderful news. Wonderful news. Did you miss me? Oh, I missed you very much. You know my legs are buckling under me. I think I'm a little tired. All the excitement... That man upset you. What did he say to you? Oh, no. No, the man didn't upset me. The man made me realize how very fortunate you and I are. Well, we may not have much money. We may not have many worldly possessions. But we have each other. We have a home, our crops. And more than anything else, we have the future, Jan. We have a future to plan and dream and create. We've found a world here in the heart of a wild orchard. And James Hilton will return in a moment. A few minutes ago, I mentioned that your Christmas card is really a Christmas gift from you to many different people. As such, you have several things to consider when making your choice. Does this card represent my feelings about Christmas? Does it reflect my taste in color and design? Will it be welcomed by my friends and proudly displayed by them all during the holidays? You can be sure of the answer to these questions if you ask to see the Hallmark Christmas card album when you go in to select the card you want imprinted with your name. For in the large and beautiful Hallmark album, you are sure to find the very card that expresses your sentiments exactly. Whether you want a gay, light-hearted, personal approach or a more formal but still warm and friendly greeting. When you stop to think that your Christmas card often is your only contact with friends who live far away or others you don't see frequently, surely you'll want your card to have that Hallmark on the back, which tells your friends you cared enough to send the very best. Here again is James Hilton. You gave us a fine performance, Anne Blythe. Thank you.  I like the stories you select. And, of course, Hallmark cards and I are old friends. When they appear in my mailbox, I always feel as if I had just received a very friendly smile. Well, if cards could smile, I'm sure they'd smile at you, Anne. Thank you, Mr. Hilton. You know, I was interested in reading the excellent reviews of the new television show, Hallmark Cards Presents Sarah Churchill. And I'm looking forward to seeing it here in California, October 21st, a week from this Sunday evening. She's so charming. Yes, isn't she? Sarah, you know, was on the Hallmark Playhouse with us last spring, and we all enjoyed her visit. I hope to have her with us again later in the season. So those cities that don't receive her new television show can hear her in one of our Hallmark Playhouse stories. That will be grand. What are you planning for next week on the Hallmark Playhouse, Mr. Hilton? Next weekend, we shall present our dramatization of a novel by the inimitable George Bernard Shaw. It's a gay love story about a price fighter and a beautiful society girl. It's a casual Byron's profession. And as our star, we shall have Joseph Cotton. Our Hallmark Playhouse is every Thursday. Our producer-director is Bill Gay. Our music is composed and conducted by David Rose. And our script tonight was adapted by Gene Holloway. Until next Thursday, then, this is James Hilton saying, Good night. But that are sold only in stores that have been carefully selected to give you expert and friendly service. Remember a Hallmark card when you'll carry it up to send the very best. Anne Blythe can now be seen in the Golden Horde, Universal International Technicolor Production, co-starring David Ferrar. The role of Jan tonight was played by Paul Dubov, the canon was Theodore Osburn, and the Bush ranger Ted D'Cosia. This is Frank Goss saying, Good night to you all until next week at this same time. When Hallmark Playhouse returns to present Joseph Cotton in George Bernard Shaw's casual Byron's profession. And the week following, Catherine Drinker Bowens, John Adams on the American Revolution, starring Van Heflin. And the week after that, Henry Wadsworth, Dylan on the Hallmark Playhouse. Friends, drive tonight from Hollywood. This is the CBS Radio Network. This is KMDC, Kansas City, Missouri. For a lifetime of greater pleasure and pride in your diamond, choose with confidence a Helzberg Certified Perfect Diamond. Guaranteed flawless of fine color and full 58-basset cut for greater sparkling brilliance. Only Helzberg sells Certified Perfect Diamonds.


Hey everybody, welcome, welcome. We are live from the floor of ITW 2023 right here in the National Harbor, which is in Maryland right outside of DC. I'm Jamie Scottokataya of JSA. Again, welcome to ITW Extra, powered by JSA TV, the official broadcast for ITW 2023. And I am very excited because I am joined here on the expo floor by Mr. David Pruitt. He is the major account sales manager over at Horizon. Thank you. So welcome, welcome David. It's exciting to have you. This is your first time here now on JSA TV. Yes, that's right. So we're super excited to welcome you and to our viewers who, who don't already know. Can you just tell us a little bit about Horizon? 130 year old company started off as a SEALEC, turned into, I'm sorry, started off as an ILEC, turned into a SEALEC. Yeah, we're happy to be here. It's a, it's a fun event. We're excited to have you here and I will tell you, let's talk about the state of telecom today in most rural areas like those that Horizon, of course, serves. What are the individual needs that customers come across, especially when we're talking healthcare, e-rate, education, or local government? What are their needs? What do they need? You know, their needs are really the same as any other company in more metropolitan areas. I mean, I think the key is the fact that we're there to serve these underserved communities. And that is critical. Do customers look for like a great network or connectivity solution? And what things do they look for in a good partner? What do you guys bring as a partner? Well, we're, we can offer higher bandwidth solutions in your traditional ILEC or your traditional cable company. So that's, that's one good alternative that our customers are looking for. Absolutely, absolutely. And one of the major projects that I hear Horizon has in the works, if you will, a network super highway between East Surmac, of course, Chicago data center, to South Bend, Indiana and Indianapolis. So big project there. What kind of demands are spurring these major projects for you? You know, in that case, it's diversity. So a lot of the, a lot of the companies that are interconnecting these metropolitan areas are taking a very similar path. So one thing that we did different with this is taking an alternative path that, you know, really brings that diverse diversity to, you know, the companies are needing. So critical, especially for those who are concerned about network uptime and availability, diversity, critical, critical. Alongside projects like these, of course, Horizon offers a host of other business solutions from doc fiber to data center connectivity, you name it. So are there any that are more popular, more in demand? In our enterprise space, I'd say probably UCAS or SDWAM, those are kind of the high demand right now, both are, both are in our product portfolio. Yeah, and those are, those are both absolutely some services that we hear a lot about here at JSA. So all right, now that I've got you in the tough seat and go ahead and look in that crystal ball, if you will. Can you tell us, give us a little peek into the future of Horizon, what's coming up? Probably the biggest thing is backbone upgrades. Upgrading our core network is going to give us the ability to, you know, not only meet our needs, but our customer needs. That's going to have a trickle down effect on, you know, what we can, what we can offer in the future. That's exciting, very exciting growth, growth, growth on the horizon for Horizon. I said I wouldn't do it and there I did. All right, so where can our viewers go to learn more? www.horizonconnects.com. Horizon connects with an s.com. Yes, absolutely. Thank you so much, David, for your time here. It's been exciting and hey, first JSA TV down, check that box. Hopefully many, many more to come. And thank you viewers for tuning in to ITW Extra, powered by JSA TV. Happy networking.


Hello everyone, here is your God, your God, and today I just want to give you just a tip about what happened in my life last time, because really I was very busy and also missed the time to do something except eat these video blogs and maybe sleep. I'm not sure about that last time, because I didn't sleep that much last time. Maybe you can see that my eyes are already red. But I want to now prepare the last tip about my lack of sleep. And that is the language festival of Sydney. And for those who don't know, because I think I need to clarify the situation about the language festival, the language festival is a very big and important event for Esperantists every year because August is here in Sydney. And it was founded four years ago, and when it was first established, only 30 people took part in it. And now, after four years, it has actually grown a lot more. And now we see that maybe 300 or 500 people will take part in it. And as you can imagine, if you are in abroad, that means that you have to take part in it for a long time. And here, every day, I'm in abroad, I'm abroad. And for those who don't know, my chiefs have to be the inaugurator of the language festival and also teach Esperanto during it. But among those two, which are easy to see, I also have to prepare advertising films for the festival. I have to make a lot of articles for different newspapers and also I have to do a lot of things. Really, I also have to organize all the instructors in Skype-conveno in the post-recorder. So my ideas are a lot. And when Augusto gets closer, of course, my free time gets worse and worse. And then, I didn't make that many records of video games at the last time, because for those who don't know, recording a video game takes a lot of time. I have to work or I have to track the microphone, the camera, the recording of the video game itself. And I have to edit and edit all of it in one film and post it on the internet. And that seems not that much of a work. But usually, and almost always, something bad works. Maybe the sound of the microphone didn't record well, or maybe the camera decided randomly that it didn't want to film, or maybe the recording just stopped. Almost always, always, something bad happens. And that's why I didn't make that much of a video game record at the last time, because I was just busy, really. And that's why I made video blogs. So, I also have a question for you. I want you to go to the language festival page on Facebook and like it. I know that you can't take it, but the more people who like it, the more impressed it looks at the other sponsors. So, just like it, share it with your friends, because whenever you do that, you actually help them. Really, you help them. And if you can, answer to the officials on the page. So, that's all. I just wanted to say that to you. If you liked this film, like it, share it, subscribe to my channel if you haven't subscribed, and I'll see you in the next video. And if you're not there, I'll find you if I have time. And I'll beat you if I have time.


Hi everyone, my name is Steph, this is Little Bookish Teacher, and today I have a picture book review for you. This is Tap Tap Tap by Herve Tole, and this is one ginormous picture book, but it is also a gorgeous book that allows children to explore movement and story and colour and shape, and it's a really, really interesting text. I did receive a review copy of this from Alan and Unwin, so thank you very much to them. As always, I'm going to start with the blurb on the back. It says ready, place your hand here, close your eyes, concentrate, hit it three times, tap, tap, tap.  Finally building to a crescendo of colour, action and movement.  So I have seen some of his previous works before, but this one is a really interesting one. So the whole concept of it, you have your page and your illustration, it's going to be hard to, and some instructions. So the first one is put your hand here. So as the child is being read to, they would follow the instructions with your fingers, and then you follow the instructions like tap, tap, tap. The whole thing has this beautiful, dynamic sense of play and storytelling in book form. The colour palette is fairly simple in red, blue and yellow. The instructions allow a child or whoever's reading to sort of move their hand around the page in different formations. So it's a very active reading experience, which is lovely. It's such a unique concept and something that I don't see often in picture books, which is amazing. I just thoroughly enjoyed exploring this, and I know so many kids who would find this really fun and a way of engaging them in a text that they wouldn't necessarily engage in. So thank you again to the publisher for sending this to me. I will leave a link to where you can find more information about this book down below. If you've read this book or any of Herve Aitoulet's books that you want to talk about them, feel free to do so down below. Otherwise, if you just want to let me know that you're here, feel free to leave a hand emoji down below. I hope that wherever you are in the world, just staying safe and healthy, and I will see you in my next video. Thanks so much for watching. Bye everyone.