Good morning and welcome to Friday the 20th of October. I trust everyone has had a good week so far and yeah I'm just going to try and do a mic check so if if the microphone is fine please feel free to type that in either in the discord chat or in the in the YouTube chat so with that further ado let's do the disclaimers. All book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of a future results. Okay yeah good morning again. Let me triple check that we've got a few people live with us. Okay right let us move on to let's move on to the slideshow for today and have a look at what is coming up in this session and why I think we've actually got some more time than we usually do to take things slowly and go in into things in depth. So if we look at the news releases there are a few Fed speakers floating around they're not all on this economics counter from Forex Factory. You have got Harker outlined at 9 o'clock and he's a major Fed speaker. He's also got the Fed budget balance which is an ongoing issue. So apart from the Fed speakers there is nothing major during this hour by way of economic releases. That does not mean it won't be volatile. We've got options expiry today and we've also got an escalating war zone in the Middle East and we have earnings season as well. So you've got a few different factors that have added up to quite a bit of volatility in the markets this week and if we keep progressing with the slideshow let's have a look. Okay on the daily we've got this trend line that we drew it doesn't have to be exact that's not the purpose of it it's just basically to capture the approximation of liquidity on this way down and that down trend is intact. It's better shown on the Nasdaq one where they've you know they've tested it a couple of times since it was formed you know if it was formed up here it's been tested one two three times and held. Okay in the ETH session we have toyed with yesterday's low in ES which is very very weak the fact that we are still in that range you know centering on yesterday's low yeah not not a very bullish sign so far and Nasdaq exactly the same just really hovering around yesterday's low. For the heat map I've chosen the entire week so we can have a quick look at the individual sectors involved and what is pretty obvious just looking at that as a whole is that you know this weakness is widespread you know we've got the big techs over here you've got the finance players like like Berkeley B or Berkshire Hathaway rather and you know you've got the health care sector that's really you know if you look at the health care sector that's the only really positive light in any of this so the weakness is across the board okay and the final slide I just wanted to show I did show this the other day which is sort of a lot of you know where I do some trading inside Sierra I just want to show I do I do eat what I preach I'm not quite sure what the exact phrase is but when I'm talking about Delta Tales I'm talking about volume profile yeah I do actually watch it myself in every platform so it's not just in bookmark where I'm talking about it okay we've got five yeah feel free to type in any comments let's get back to the display capture okay and yeah so the theme on the on the educational side or basically we wouldn't do some live order order flow analysis at the same time and maybe yeah maybe that's where we start so if we have a look at something that I did just screenshot and put into the discord channel yeah a few minutes ago this is something that we see regularly absolutely regularly in ES when we're talking about arresting iceberg where they haven't had their complete fill and it's a sell iceberg above the market and you know they place I think there's about 165 contracts filled there or maybe it was no that was it because it wasn't touched again until here and then the market moves away so once it moves away and it's moved significantly away you're looking for a trade if it provided you got a multiple our opportunity you're looking for a trade back to it and through it and that's what happens many a time that's why you know why I flag these to you and again I tend to focus on these resting sell icebergs that above the market rather than the resting by icebergs below the market and the reason for that is the probability of them being tagged is just higher than the other way around okay I just want to check just with anybody on YouTube that I mean I've got a slightly higher resolution on the on the monitor here but I've increased the font size of book map that you can actually all read the numbers so if I'm pointing at 4295 there that you can read it there's any comments feel free to let me know hey Marius how are you going welcome right okay so why have I got three of these and why have we got slightly bigger resolution it is because I want to talk about things in a little bit more depth today because we haven't got to speed along at 100 miles an hour before a major 830 release so one of the things that I keep harping on about is times of the day right and I thought if we have this trading view chart open on a five-minute chart and we make it you know pretty small so that you can see each of the days like there's today yesterday the day before you can do the same in enqueue it just gives you an idea when I talk about you know what our key times in the markets busy you can see across three days and I can always drag it across or scrunched up and make it make it easier to see four days so what I want to talk about is really the types or the the the wins of the opportunity that is present in the eth session right what are we trading we're trading yes and enqueue futures which are based on stocks or you know that futures of stocks or futures derivatives of stocks in the US markets the US market shuts or effectively at 1600 hours or four o'clock eastern which is you know right about there and there etc so we have this great big eth session here and let me see if I can just let me draw it with a blue pen so if I draw it I'll just do it on this some yesterday profile because you've got all of it come on and so yeah so so the eth session that we are talking about really spans from here all the way through to here right and what we have to be cognizant of what we have to be well aware of throughout this process is that the main US market where these stocks are traded is effectively shut there are some pre-open times there's a post pre-open here from 1800 through to about 200 and there's a pre-open which is really about 0400 through to 0930 so in other words you've got this little session here and you've got this little session here where it's sort of open but I would say for the most part it's dead I mean there is some information you can get from the pre-market activity of those stocks and I'd say it was more in this session rather than this session but let's just get rid of some of that so we can just focus on these times again and I'll explain it'll rather it'll become apparent why we are looking at this I think I've gone slightly past that 930 mark but anyway so the eth the one that we're talking about extended trading hours opens at 1800 hours so whatever activity occurs from 1600 through to 1800 including when the market is actually technically closed is what I would call in NFL terms as garbage time right they might be cleaning up a bit of business but it's really garbage time in the sense that they send on their second or third string quarterbacks and the game is effectively over if you look at the size of the trades all the really really large trades ended at 1600 hours and this is effectively nothing or nonsense the only real exception to that is during the earning season where you often get some major major stocks announcing their earnings just after the market closed and obviously the other exception is when you have a fourth major event or in other words if a war breaks out that kind of event but for the most part this is just garbage time that is not a period that I'm willing to trade at all right okay and let's just remove that it's quite nice being able to go slowly for change okay so the next period is 1800 through till 1945 right Asia is technically opens of the markets the futures markets have reopened at 1800 hours but none of the actual individual stock markets that have lots of activities such as Japan are actually open during that period and again it is extremely risky you're not going to you tend to not get tremendously good action and there's no correlations or confluence with other markets during that period so it's really just games during that period so you can get moves you can get moves up and down but there's just games going on and there's nothing that I would call really good flow type action to analyze and to get a repetitive edge in the markets it's a it's a little bit random in fact it's more random than it would be at at most other times so let me just use the rubber this time and we just rub that out okay and let's go here and then my zero is looking sort of like triangles okay I would call this the first real opportunity to do normal futures type trading that 1945 Eastern to 2045 Eastern this I'd call the opening Japan phase and that's where I'd say you get repeatable action all right so looking at this chart over here because I've scrunched it up so much you can't really see that that you get some really good moves but maybe if I remove all of this so if I just ditch all of this for a second and we look across in this period 1800 no I'm sorry 1945 and we'll just do it yesterday so I'm just doing ES even though I know that NQ trades better and the scaling here is automatic so it's gonna it's gonna get bigger and smaller without me really controlling it unless I do something like that but essentially if I get my pen I'll just do it with my mouse this time this period here even though you can't really see it from a five minute chart does have reasonably good trading opportunities right and I'm going to talk about when the better opportunities are in ETH but I'm just saying this period if I was going to rank the periods that were tradable on a consistent repeatable basis this would come at the bottom but it would still fall into that category all right and then the next one you write down the next one really the second one I would say would be the 2115 that's really it's not really good wrapping me I think it's not really doing palm rejection very well hey Stephen 2115 to about 22 30 2245 this may be getting a little bit late for some people that live on the eastern shores of the US but you've got plenty of night birds as well and you've also got plenty of people from the west coast who that kind of time really doesn't look very good let me just rub that out again and try again to write that down doesn't like my handwriting today 2115 to 22 30 that is a slightly better category you'll find that the volatility is higher than at the Japan Open most days and you get some really really good reversals in that period so I'd call it an open period of 2115 to about 2133 2135 and then you've got some more regular type non-opening price action and that can keep going all the way through for another hour hour and a half so I'd say you know I'd say those are the two periods in Asia that are tradable on a repeatable basis I'm not talking about certain random phases that might just crop up during the middle of Asia or one day a week or one day a month I'm talking about things that are are repeatable on a daily basis but the very other thing to accept is that you cannot control this you cannot predict this and sometimes it's just going to be incredibly dull and the trades are not going to move at all but I'm just saying if the relative volume is reasonable both both that Japan Open and this Chinese opening stretch as I could call it are tradable all right and then I would say let me just get rid of all of that that it becomes completely dull until let's draw it in here whoops we are not on a pen until this period here and I'd say you've got a period of oh I'd call this like an Asian afternoon pickup you might get really really good reversals in that hour 50 minutes and that's a prelude to the real action and where the real ETH action comes into play which is at that time there 0-150 for the the German Open and recently the action has really been tradable all the way through from that 0-150 right until the US Open so I was saying that the next session which is the really good long session is when the Germans come on board and that's when you get the real price action so if we get rid of all of this so you know if you if you are an incredibly early bird in the US you know even if you aren't up for the London Open you're likely to find a good stretch of trading at some stage from that London Open or from the German Open all the way through to the US Open so you might just straight you know you might just be willing to sit at your desk for two hours during that and the the later you get I mean really from about 0-600 hours until the open you know you get some you know really consistent type action day after day after day so that's that's just one of the things I wanted to go on in a little bit more detailed than I normally do on how you break down all of this and you know some of those periods may be completely irrelevant to you so you know before we move on to the next thing let me just ditch all of this and go back to that and we'll just you know we'll just watch this break down so yeah I always do do some live order flow action so I will have a look at it again so you know a bit of hindsight analysis here we saw that this sell iceberg was to grab people's attention that they wished to trade up here so they're essentially that what they wanted to do was to grab some more buyers as fuel to then take it down and if we let me just direct this across we have more of the ES and if we look across at this resting liquidity this liquidity has been placed since four o'clock which is you know the pre-open for the US stocks that we just mentioned an hour after London Open and you've got some even earlier resting liquidity there just a little bit lower so you know there's been a game in place since the last time they got down here which was you know they'll make some money squeezing these late shorts take them all the way up there then once it's at a really good price and they can take their stops of those buyers then they'll drive it all the way back down and we're now heading towards that magnetic resting liquidity and the reason why we have these two markets side-by-side is so that you know we can see the action and you can see it in and Keanu I've got a slightly shorter period there it's a really really good trend channel down I don't even need to draw it for you you can see that how beautiful that channel is you don't you don't often get that and you might go back to some historical teaching of what trend channels are yeah they aren't often as you know as beautiful and linear as the movement down from there all the way down to there you know this kind of action up down up down up down is much more likely that's why a lot of that indicator stuff does not work because that is not that not how markets work no questions no comments okay what's always a 21 so the Canadian releases at 830 but it doesn't really cause us much consternation so we're zooming out and and Q and we're looking at these pressing liquidity bands that they've placed and you'll know that they basically placed them at the exact same time so if I look at the highlight of the cursor just looking at the time because oh yeah so effectively you can see yeah I was I was struggling to believe it was that early it was just before the Chinese open so yeah again that confirms one of the things you know one of the reasons why we look to those times because that isn't just when those markets open it's when some of these large players become active and they place these advertising orders in the market you know these advertising orders are often hit much much later than they're placed but it is still interesting to see when they're placed and how long they remain in the market without any major dilution or adding to and you can see these three bands here have been in place for a very very long time but what can happen as it has just happened here is that they can take away a very large band sometimes you know if we zoom down you'll see them move that band on this occasion that is not what what happened but but it's just interesting to know we cannot know why that large player removed that large order and of course the whole thing is polluted by these algo bands which make it very hard to see anything but there's still a large resting liquidity again in NQ since I'm doing things more slowly again today we are looking at resting liquidity levels normally over 30 so when we have a level over 60 and it's been in play for a long long time and it's also been approached once that is of interest to us as market generated information that may provide a useful target on a move down so the market does whatever the market feels like it doesn't normally move in this straight line like this but you know that could be in play for a trailing target at some point especially when you have looking across at ES some interesting resting liquidity below as well which has been in play since the German open that one they added to it at the German open and that one stretches back off my charts but effectively that's been in play all of the Asian session so you know these things you have as markers on your chart so you don't think at any point that they're going to go straight to them but they're just markers that can come into play and are likely to get hit at some point so it should not be a surprise to you you know after a big strong run up that suddenly they start targeting this and then bang they're going to hit this one here at 4285 it looks like like they are just removing some of it zoom right out so we get all of the order book levels they're coming almost to it I mean when you're trading to that as a target you know please remember that you know your risk to reward equation changes throughout your the course of your trade and you know if you were in a trade all the way down to here and it didn't quite tag that you know there is absolutely no harm scaling or taking it before it does hit in case it doesn't hit it because because the risk reward will become quite unfavorable to you if you then let the trade retreat backwards almost to your entry yeah so this is quite a big move down you know we're in a we're in an economic climate where things are not as good and we have two wars on the world stage in play so it's not entirely unforeseen that we would have a bearish week although there have been plenty of games I'm just watching this for a second seeing how these levels move I'm also looking at the tails so I'm always looking at these tails I don't always look at these levels here the ones at the bottom are just the total volume of the sales and buyers in this column here I don't I don't get much out of the numbers sometimes I get some information in my head from the visuals of the length of the horizontal bars in relation to each other either ratio of the red to green or vice versa but you know and it does change if you move that around so you know if I if I zoom right in you'll see those numbers shrink and that ratio might change as well now some of the other things that I did have on when we started doing these webinars I think they distract from what I'm trying to show during this hour so that's why I really haven't got many of them on at the moment you know I think they're great tools to have but for this purpose just trying to see things as clearly as we can I think you know essentially the heat map you know this market pulse which is the volume and pressure imbalance is really quite good the market stops can be useful and I but I have filtered them down considerably so there's far fewer far fewer triggers to actually show those market stops and the icebergs are not filtered so basically every single iceberg is there because I'm not using them as support and resistance and I'm just using them as information and sometimes I'm using them as targets okay so we've just had a little bit of a look at the action there I haven't done an awful lot of live analysis I mean when I did that screenshot of that there I mean if you go back to what I said in the last webinar or the last time I I screenshot one of those and then discussed it live in the webinar it is often the case when they've got these sell icebergs above that they're using as these targets that they're looking to fill lots of of um buyers as fuel from move down and sometimes that you get information from the heat map as well so like if there were many many levels up here so they're trying to get as many fills as possible before this move down that could have been helpful as well but on this occasion there weren't that many levels and it you know if we drag this across it's going to behave and we look at the the green tail towards the top I mean you can see that you can't see a distribution on that delta tail as well as the distribution on the volume profile but the actual you know the marker here where the iceberg was was the big point so once it got down there that was the real you know beginning to roll down hill moment towards these liquidity targets down there so that that's how you'd use it you could see them potentially lining up all these buys as fuel to go down because they'd set these resting liquidity levels up beforehand you had more of these American traders coming on board as we head towards the 930 mark so that you know if they've had these resting liquidity levels here all night at some point closer to that 930 they become to you know they become more and more in play potentially and that's what can happen that's why you know it's why I like to see how long they've been there and whether they've changed in their intensity or not but most importantly I also want to see the number of orders attached to them so I'm not just looking at the colors I'm looking at the numbers right okay so we've looked at the concept I'm going to move back on to this whole slow method of looking at what we look at when we work out what we're going to trade in the ETH session so I'm going to drag across the TPO VP chart that I often do I might make it a little bit bigger come here right and I drew this I drew this when I got up this morning which is sometime just after the 1800 hours and what I do again is I split the previous session which is the the white session which is the RTH session up to find out where the last value was right because that and this this RTH session for me ends at 1600 hours I settlement so that last value was the last real value that's why I've got it there and you can see here this acute this accumulation of time and the volume there and then when I reset the chart the reason why it across there was that it was an approximation of of the value as closely as I could get I'm looking for where there's a break between two distributions and that was the closest thing I could find it to a break and I drew it all the way down to the bottom because it looked to be exploring at settlement so one of the things that you'll often find as well where they do have a strong directional move into settlement is that there is likely to be some level of continuation into the early Asian session so we're talking about the session being at 1800 hours onwards so if we then break down this one and to what happens you can see that it gapped down so if the 1600 settlement was a was was actually up there and where the red triangle is and the t plus one is and the opening bars of the RTA of the ETH session were down here there was a gap down so in other words there was a continuation of this moved a directional move down into the close and that left something which was quite nice it's actually even nicer on the NQ chart and we'll have a look at that one in a second but that meant that we were trading down here and that you the last really fat distribution was up here so there was always a likely opportunity in terms of of auctioning to have what's often known as a coat check or price check which is to price check this value zone up here to see whether people are still interested and think this is represents good buy value as in is it not too expensive so even though we started down there and we moved down and we went like that the likelihood is that this little zone here was always going to be very very attractive for them to come back and check and you can see they went a little bit higher so that so that is something you know it goes hand in hand with some of the stuff that I talked about the times of the day and then which markets are open we're going to look at that as well in a second just because we haven't had a recap of this whole concept for a little while and today is a good opportunity especially because you know options expires a risky day in RTH so you've got to be aware of that there can be some nasty nasty price type moves in RTH that you just completely unpredictable chop because people are trying to hold price into in a certain area where there is options positioning okay let me just get the NQ one let me get rid of all of that yes Stephen thanks for the question try to get rid of this I just mean that you can see this delineation point a low volume node whatever you want to call this it's where the profile and and and the thick line there is the volume profile yeah the LVN right that is the point at which this new distribution started right and here's another one right so this is the first one that they want to go and check so so they basically ended this distribution there they moved into a new distribution in ETH but at some point they want to come back and check because this is much more important than this you know RTH is much more important than this ETH rubbish you know I trade rubbish but that's because you know I know I'm trading I'm trading a casino but they want to come back and see whether this distribution it could be valid again if that's a kind of phrasing that you can understand you know is this distribution still in play or have we definitely finished with that distribution for the time being yeah so that's all they're doing that's what we call a price check I think Tom calls it a price check or a code check like a supermarket price check it's just advertising this price here is this still a price that you're interested in so they come back check it and even though they looked like they were interested they weren't and we've moved back down and we're all the way back down here yep yeah you've got it Stephen yeah okay so it's actually better shown on the enqueue yeah some people are very reluctant to touch the enqueue and they don't believe that it options well but if we drag it in and we make it a bit bigger you can see this even better in enqueue so if we just let me just show you how that ends so that ended again with this distribution so if we'd reset that so I drew it because why did I draw it like that essentially there was an LVN there and they had a big move down and you can see some distribution from the LVN down all the way down at the bottom and because enqueue in volatile times tends to have really really larger ranges that's why I drew that that purple value for ETH perspective value all the way down there right and if we look at what has happened in and we can we can split this one out into bars again you can see that you know if they've got this little distribution here and we can draw this one again if they've got this distribution there you can see they had a price check up here into this distribution and they almost tested out this which was the you know the peak volume of that distribution it's as close as in enqueue you can see the resting liquidity is around there as well so so that's just interesting that that you know when you see some nasty spikes down during Asia that you might get this opportunity certainly early in Europe to have that price check time to kind of drive up and again you don't need many great multiple R trades to get down yeah yeah and we can look at the I see what you're saying Steve and we can look at the action in bookmap for this spike up because you know we have this as context and background in the early Europe and we know about this distribution so we can grab the enqueue bookmap chart and have a look and we'll look at the time that that was in and we can see that from the trading view chart so we'll do that so we'll get rid of the TPO chart if I get my cursor back I know there's some action going on but there's always action going on in the markets so this time we're going to blow this one up and we're going to look maybe I'll just get the I'm just going to grab what I'm doing here is I'm looking on the trading view chart to see when this drive or this big spike down was which was essentially in the just after German open and then it drove all the way up into 445 5 o'clock AM so let's have a look at that so it's really about just after 2 a.m. and I've made it the whole screen so that we can easily drag this across we're going to have to zoom out again and bear with me while we do it to zoom out again and again we know that that low is the point that we're interested in and we're also interested in the rain so we're going to zoom out back in again but we're going to zoom vertically on this why are we looking at such a high level picture because you get better contacts from that picture and remember we've just looked at the volume profile and the time profile so bearing that in mind and we're looking at this resting liquidity and you know it's essentially it's been there for hours it's well above the 30 level that we care about you know 58 98 94 whatever that was and we find out yeah I should be hiding that I can't really find out that would have been higher as well so you know that gives you context as you come down to this and remember we if NQ doesn't quite get down to a band we accept that it is a very thin instrument so if it only just got down to there that's almost going down to down to here and there was a liquidity band there that it turned around you can see them increasing the intensity of that or support as you could call it in liquidity terms a few times until it finally rejected all right so you have that in mind so let's zoom into this kind of action which is so we've we're determined that there is despite all this action going down we've determined that there is a possibility we're not going to call it a probability at this stage a possibility of a coat check or a price check up above to look at the previous distribution that took place in RTH right so that when we come down to here which is early in the German session but I said that recently this entire period from about 150 all the way through has been busy so it should not be a great surprise that you know if you have been trained this to see volatility during that time yet the London Open may not be till 3 a.m. but we've got you know good volatility in NQ there so what are we looking at as we come into this so we zoom in a bit one of those Australian flies that has appeared in my office very painful what we are trying to do here yeah what one thing I'm trying to illustrate first off is the tail the delta tail so you can see on this picture I know where we've got quite a lot of action all the way in from about 153 but what is that showing you that is showing you this is like a 90% delta tail you know in other words it's more sellers than buyers at every price level on this way down and it gets a little bit thin on the volume profile right at this bottom let me just get rid of that go back to the cursor right here the actual bars of this thing that's one of the reasons why I don't look at it too much it doesn't really help that even though you've got 2731 versus 18 so basically 3 to 2 which is a big big imbalance of sellers to buyers it's not really shown in this graphic here so yeah I have an issue with that and I must bring it up to the developers but then if we zoom right into this and this is just trying to get this this is you know to look at how scary it might have been and where you might have got in okay we've almost got I think we have got it now right so you've got you've got plenty of you can see plenty of MBO stops you can be 67 there see 69 71 whatever number that one's 34 maybe so you can see them driving down driving down driving down right what what isn't normally the world's most sensible idea is to fade these right simply because you don't know which one of these spikes is going to be it right so we're looking for more of the SD you know type A or type C category if I call type A and B basically the same thing which is just a test of a previous swing low and and type C is that they'll break out beyond the extreme so what are we looking at here remember that when we're looking at this we know that there's a potential for some long-term trading targets way way above so we know that that even though this may seem crazy that some of these trades might be worth it if they do get going and we've got to look at it right at the low so again we've we're we are really quite focused on on these tails we're focused on the liquidity acting as support we know that there was even more much much bigger liquidity which wasn't tagged or maybe it's just a bean tag but hasn't been tagged for hours and hours right down the bottom but this is significant support in NQ terms 60 is twice 30 so if I'm interested in resting liquidity of 30 if I see 60 I'm definitely interested in that and I don't I don't have to always see it tagged if it comes close that's good enough okay so I'm seeing that as potential support then you're looking at you know have we got a significant tail how have we had a big rundown that's a massive tail right in terms of if that's all red so that at some point it's going to be worth taking a supply-demand trade and then you have to think about the risk coming into this right so essentially dig the pen at just to make this one a bit easier pen the pen is struggling with palm rejection so I've got to be careful I don't touch the pad because that's the problem I think it seemed to get it so I'm saying that this is essentially your support so that your stops are going to be a roundabout there your stop is not not this one right that's too wide a stop for what we're doing right why is that too wide a stop for this purpose is because we're looking for a multiple R type trade so you know we're not just looking at book maps so we've got trading view we've got whatever we've got like I've got stuff in Sierra we've got very importantly we've got the volume profile chart with us to give us ideas on targets above and we've got those resting liquidity levels up above from ES as well as NQ so we're saying that you know you're in there it's a retest of these and you know if we get to the cursor and we zoom out we have to get rid of all that because they're all in the wrong position now we then get into the microstructure and so we start getting down to the 32nd time frames on on these bars here I do hope the font is big enough that you can see them so you know if I read them to you it's like 22 30 onwards right so you're looking at this microstructure you're saying are we testing the lows here and you know do I have a risk point where I'm wrong and you have a risk point where you're wrong here so then you're drawing in your risk into this on the basis you know of the trigger being the fact that they cannot you know they've touched this and they've touched this but they can't get any further so you're looking you're stalking in this zone you're you're aware it might not get back here it might not be the type C so you might have to get in here so the fact that they cannot then get low and they start to move higher you know where is the most likely place you're going to enter it's probably around about here so you've got a risk point let's just draw it all the way up here down to there so and then you look across to work out your risk point it's really about 14 798 to it's not gonna be five points so you're gonna if you look to that screenshot that I did earlier of Sierra the only thing I've got marked on that is rotation size so the only real reason I've got that there is to give me a guidance on stop size that you know when I'm thinking I have worked out where that stop should be that I've roughly got the right size in relation to the swing sizes but because I think you know four or five points is too small even for me you know six seven points that kind of order and then you know that that's an interesting trade because you've got you've got something fairly concrete in your mind in fact six or seven points is a little bit further down here so if you took seven points it is worth it why is it worth it it's worth it because even your first target you know if we look at the volume profile you know it was it was very very skinny all the way down here and if you're looking across here in terms of any real balancing action the last time they had any real balancing action was really around about there you can't really see the volume profile very well on this I'd have to actually make it a lot bigger so even if I made that a lot lot bigger it's still no it doesn't it's not the most attractive so I won't do that but it's it's up there and you've also got these breakdowns of resting liquidity which are often very very good points for for targets you know the the if you've got a resting liquidity that's broken they'll often come right back to it and you've got two here you've got one and you've got two so you so if we zoom back in again zoom right in so I'm saying that we couldn't get back in you you're in there and you've got yeah that's too small to be a decent first target but you got this one and you've got this one and then you know you've got some interesting targets above and if we go back to trading view for a second and we look at where what where we were in relation to that you know when we were down here we're off the 1 2 3rd standard deviation from VWAP and you've got things like you've got yesterday's low which is this red line you've got VWAP itself you know as well as settlement which they almost tagged so you've got wider targets and you've also got the ability in yourself to accept that you are happy to take your stops and be wrong because you know that you might have to have a couple of goes a really really good structural setups to get get a trade that can take you up at least to yesterday's low so you know you can't forget the context in which you are looking at the trade even though you're looking at it on this micro structure level you've got some context from much bigger levels to look at as as real targets realistic targets you know because whilst whilst the micro structure option is incredibly useful when you're looking at what is happening in the here and right in here and now it doesn't necessarily cover what's likely to happen over the course of the next 15 minutes half an hour you know because they can have lots and lots of those micro structure auctions which may go in various different directions until we get this move which went zonk all the way up to settlement you know it was still a lot of nonsense up and down up and down until that that move got going and you you know you just have to give your trade a chance and accept that it could get stopped out okay we'll just get that across might have a look at the live market again what I didn't really cover was you know the other markets that you're looking at but as you know because you'll have heard me say this time and time again when you're in Europe sorry in fact let's go back to Asia and I won't write this up so we'll just just have the action that's going on in bookmark and we can talk about anything that is really really of any great note in Asia in terms of correlations I won't talk about big players I just talk about correlations first the correlations I mean what's driving the markets you've got the Japanese stock market you've got the Japanese central bank or interest rate etc affecting or Japanese bonds affecting currencies so the easiest thing for you to see as a retail trader is the impact on currencies and that's often reflected directly in in the USD currency pairs you like the Japanese yen USD in that in Asia or gold right so you know you can have a look at some of the other stock markets in play have a look at China have a look at Japan have a look at Australia have a look at Korea so you know there are some correlations it's not the best time of the ETH session but there are things that can help you with the broader picture and when you're in Europe you know you've got more interesting things so you you've got a much better correlation and you can do the statistical studies yourselves on working out what the current correlations are but you can have a look at the DAX the Euro stocks the FTSE and in particular where are each of those markets as they open in relation to yesterday's high yesterday's low yesterday's settlement all of those things you know can be really really helpful with you and also you can get much better volume and volatility I haven't done an actual direct volume comparison on like a volume per 15 minutes in Europe versus in Asia but I'm guessing it's at least double in Europe than it is in Asia so you know those are the correlations and in addition to those you've got you got the Euro so they got the Euro futures or the EUR USD currency pair and you've got the Bund the FGBL and you've got crude oil gets a little bit more active in Europe and you've got some good correlations that are often in play in the European session between crude oil and the equity indices futures so yeah you've got you've got more information that's helping you and you've got better action and you've also got this you know let's let's tag settlement in each of those markets kind of thing in the equity indices futures markets which doesn't happen as well in the Asian session one of the reasons why it doesn't happen you know the go-home kind of trade that I've talked about and that I think there's a book map webinar by my friend David as well and he's talked about this go-home session where ESN and Q will go back to the home point or their settlement from yesterday point during the the London Open the reason why that's not so useful in Asia or the most common reason why it's not that useful is because they haven't traveled very far from home so it's such a short distance to get back to him question thought I had a question maybe I have to open chat I was a chat in the room as well I was asking it do I see you going down further I don't put it the future I can look at what's in play if you look at you know I think one of the things I've already said it's a cookie I'm sorry it's cookie is that this is options expiry day if you look at the various options expiry days during the year this is not one of the major ones but it's still a significant one so it's a monthly options expiry day so you've got monthly options expiring weekly ones and some of those ones that are about two days so you the biggest options expiry days are the quarterly ones or the quad witching days which was like last month but because it is an options expiry day one of the most useful things to do is look at you know look at some basic information look at the open interest in the SPX options for example which is you know the most heavily traded one in in the sphere and the SPS and the SPX options do have some bearing on NQ futures as well as ES futures and you look at the levels that they might want to peg them out and if you did look at that you'd find some so I'm saying I'm looking at the current spread between SPX and ES futures and I think it's 25 points so I know when I'm looking at this for example 25 points off this is still above 4250 and there's that there's some open I have interest at 4250 which would be about 4275 ES so yeah I do see it checking 4275 at some point you know maybe in this zone here but whether it'll go down any further I haven't got a clue and again yeah I've learned that you don't get paid by predicting the future you get you get paid by coming up with ideas on what may happen but you get paid by taking high expectancy trades that have a reasonable level of probability you know they don't have to have a hundred percent probability or even 80 or 70 percent probability but they just it has to be a good reason why now if you've got a set of triggers you're looking you know I'm thinking about my my friend Yuri like calls them fingers you know how many of those fingers or confluence factors of your triggers you know what's your most important one and one of the most important ones I've talked about is this fuel factor you know this this red tail if you want to go long often with combined with some nice liquidity support you know what factors have you got in your triggers that suggests that this is a good time to execute this trade and you know how much risk you're taking in relation to how much reward are you going to get the you know you're going to get the two hours three hours four hours if not why are we doing it you know if we are we're doing it just because we think price is going down that's not a not a good enough reason you know you can be wrong an awful lot and still make money in fact make more money than you lose and so you know what I'm trying to say is that my analysis is pretty much irrelevant you know what is more important is that I stay in the present that are you know that I see things as they happen and that I've worked on my prep my homework for the kinds of things that I should be looking for in order to get the types of trades that I want and that that I basically execute them without overthinking it or you know if I think for example oh my god it must go down four two seven five but you know we're here and I suddenly get a great long I have to take that great long you know because it's in my trading plan and it's got a two or three or whatever it is you know even though I think oh my god it's definitely gonna get to four two seven five that's irrelevant you know I can't predict the future I am so not Nostradamus and all I can yeah all I can say is that you know I have spent way too many times saying I must get to four twos and five and they're not taking those great little longs so I don't do that anymore yeah I accept that the process that you know the process that you build in your trading plan hopefully you will find is a much better trader than you are a predictor of the future you know as long as it is you know the best trader you have your process that's all you need you know and all this rubbish about all these people always being able to work out what's going to happen next you know good on them but it's often means they're not telling the truth in regards to you know their actual trading and yeah that's kind of a very long-winded answer to that question but I hope it wasn't a bit over the top what time is it now it's gone nine I think it is coming up nine o'clock we've got seven more seconds so let's just zoom out one last time and have a look at this so you got the biggest resting liquidities are below they're actually below that four two seven five who knows maybe we will get down there but I don't know well good luck to everybody who is you know trading tonight and be wary of options expiry be very very careful thank you very much for coming along