Hey Virgo, welcome back to another episode of your love life. This is Kelly from House of Virgo. Welcome back everyone. If you're new, please do hit like, share, and subscribe, and if you want to get a personal reading there's a link in the description box below this video. Just click that link and you would be able to book your reading. In some cases, same day. Really just depends. I'm booked up for the rest of this week, but you can grab the next available one-hour phone call or a 30-minute phone call. Okay, you guys. Remember, this is a general love reading. This will be for Virgos and Virgos only. Virgo Sun, Moon, Rising, or Venus. Male or female. Masculine or feminine. I feel like I need to preface that because some people are like, why do you keep saying male or female? I mean it's just energy. However you identify is, you know, up to you obviously. Alright, let's take a look. I'm going to do the Celtic Cross tonight. See what the energies are here playing out. Celtic Cross reading. Let's see. Okay, Virgos Sun, Moon, Rising, or Venus. One of the messages for Virgos Sun, Moon, Rising, or Venus. Welcome, you guys. If you're in the chat, if you're not in the chat, please join the chat every evening. I feel if you need support or you need to talk to anybody, the chat is like awesome. Let's take a look here. Okay. So, past position. The Four of Swords. The present. Nine of Pentacles. The challenge. I'm not pulling reversals in this spread. The challenge. The benefit is a wheel of fortune. Driving the reading. Page of Swords. Crowning is the Queen of Swords. Wow, near future. The world.  Five of Swords in the position of you. Oh my goodness, Virgo. External to you. The Eight of Pentacles. Or the other person. Or other people. Hopes and fears. You have the Four of Cups. The outcome is the Eight of Swords and the Ten of Swords. Bottom of the deck. You know what? I'm not this. I can't even make this up. As soon as these cards are coming out, I just, it just feels like Virgo, you are like, if you've never been done with anything in your life before, these cards are like, oh yeah, this is like history. The Five of Pentacles. So, Virgo, there's like someone's feeling left out in the cold, abandoned. I mean, it's not, it's not like, I was just picking up some energy. Somebody here is hearing this and they're like laughing or they're good. If this is you leaving someone out in the cold. And I don't, it's not like a judgment, but it kind of feels a little sad. Okay. I don't know if somebody, it's weird energy. I don't know if somebody feels bad about leaving someone out in the cold or has a sense of guilt or maybe remorse or this or it's the person, if you've left someone or abandoned the situation, this person feels a sense of guilt or remorse that they had something to do with it. Okay. So we have the tower and tower is in the reverse. So it feels like this person was not expecting this. They kind of knew it was coming. That's what I'm hearing. They're having a hard time accepting that something is just completely over. Yet it feels like they're struggling with it. It's kind of a burden. They understand that, you know, they were too much up in their head or they were just living in La La Land or fantasy land, but the moon tells me like the truth is coming out and this person is getting clarity.   Do we commit? You know, do we get married? Go the full distance or just stay friends? Maybe they treated you like a friend of benefits or it was just too casual. They just weren't taking things seriously. Kind of feels like they're aware of this. And I feel like Virgo, I'm just hearing some of you just made a decision for yourself. You didn't maybe inquire about this other person. You just said, well, I'll make the decision for both of us. That kind of thing. That's what I feel like. Yeah, look, heartbreak. Maybe they were connecting with others or just too much partying or just too much social fun time and leaving you out in the cold for some of you. Or they had other priorities or maybe dating around or just not taking your feelings into consideration, that kind of thing. Three swords energy. There might have been a third party as well for some of you or just it's a very heartbreaking situation. Some of you may have been with child and this person just would not commit even with that energy. Okay. Whether in utero or gave birth or just have children that just, you know, this might have been your partner. You thought that you were going to marry one day or be with one day and there was a child coming along and this person wasn't taking it seriously. They were just sitting on the fence being passive about making a decision. Okay. It just feels like trying to make up their mind. You know, really stressful about this. This person had a fear of overcoming themselves. It's very bizarre. It's like they knew they needed to make a move. But they just, oh, it just feels like, I don't know if they didn't feel like they were good enough or they didn't feel like they could give you what you needed. That kind of energy. Okay. I'm not going to leave these here.  I was seeing almost all the signs in here as I was looking. I'm not going to call anybody out right now because I just feel like if this message is going to, you feel like it's resonating for you, then that's your person. Okay. I'm going to just give these a quick little shuffle and I want to see what the romance love messages are at this time. What's going on in Bergo's love life. Please show us what's going on in Bergo's love life.  And I see here in the past, this is like withdrawal, maybe ghosting, disappearing, passive energy, nothing happening. Okay. Keep an open mind. Bergo, you still make me differ from your usual type in expectations. Okay. Religious factors. Maybe some blockages, finances and career always showing up as number three here. Let's just get one more. This could be the one. Ooh, Bergo, you have some new love coming in, but we'll get to that in a minute. Okay. And I will check that to see. I just feel like the past energy, the four of sorts, it's like withdrawal, total withdrawal, maybe ghosted. There was an energy between two people where it's like just not going to happen. Somebody just wanted, some of you might have been praying a lot in the past or asking for healing and blessings or trying to like speaking your prayers and intentions in the past, hoping for things to work out with you and this person. That might have been an energy like where you would be laying in bed at night and you had your prayers up and you were just praying and praying and praying. Okay. You know, oh, I see, I see, I see. There's three swords hanging on the wall there praying for healing. This is a healing card after the three of swords heartbreak. Some of you really got your heart broken by another person. Some of you really did. If there was cheating or just a third party interference. Now, when I say third party, it doesn't necessarily mean it was a person. It could have been a place or a thing. It was just some type of interference in this relationship. It could have been somebody kind of like interjecting either their opinions. This person might have had an addiction. Addiction can be a third party interference. Could have been another person, anything, you know, your story better. Okay. It's, it's a noun. It's a person, place, a thing. It's it could have been an argument or it could have been something that happened that you two were on a path of making a decision to work things out or be together, but something, something infiltrated the connection and left you heartbroken, heartbroken. And I feel like in the past, you made this could have even just been yesterday. You may have just gotten into this position where you just wanted to heal. You needed to heal. Some of you were praying for healing in that relationship or maybe some of you might have been setting your intentions and asking spirit or lighting candles and asking for that third party thing to be removed from the relationship. Okay. But I feel like a lot of you also needed to remove yourself from the relationship. So past energy healing, which is a positive healing is always a positive. Okay. But it was not easy for you. Hold on. I just wanted to kind of chill the music out here a little bit. Okay. So your current energy. Oh, actually they just said pull card on the four of sorts. So let's see what's going on here. Tell me more about the four of sorts for Virgo. Okay. Yeah. Six of wands praying for a victory, praying for success, praying for something to be healed in this past relationship. Okay.  You might have been dealing with someone who just had a very large ego. I just thought that their their ish didn't stink and that they were they didn't need you. They had all the attention and victory and applause and admiration. Some of you were even hoping that this person would be successful in their life. I know there's a lot of Virgo who have good intention for the people that they love, even when Virgo gets hurt. But I feel like this past energy, when I look here, it seems to me like you're, you're on good, you're on good ground. Okay. Look, 10 of cups here. Yeah. Praying for, oh, it just feels like support, healing a family relationship, seeking love and support. A lot of you, I know went through something. You were just hoping or sending your attention to this person would like see the error of their ways or see how they were hurting you and things like that. Okay. Let's get away from the past energy because we do way too much of that past stuff. Let's take a look at you right now, Virgo. You look amazing male or female. You've got the nine of pentacles. So you're independent, you're solo, you are standing tall right now. You may not feel all that wonderful. Some of you may. Okay. In other words, when I say that, I feel like some of you are like having to accept the situation right now.  You're pretty stable. You got things going on for yourself, which is good, but you're single. And a lot of you are just standing here like waiting for the winds of change to come. You know, it's really a benefit for you with this wheel of fortune and in your favor to work hard to make, you know, make bank to see your growth, your blessings to actually take a look and see how lucky you truly are right now. I don't know what that might mean for you, but you might just still, it feels like there's no emotion here. So I feel like a lot of you have put your emotions on the back burner or you've just said, let me just deal with what's in front of me, like the practical stuff. Okay.  Make yourselves feel better. Um, let me take a look here. It's a challenge for you though to move forward. It really is.  You know that when you give your heart and if you gave your heart to somebody and it wasn't reciprocated, you know that you will still survive. Virgos are survivors. You will still keep it moving. You'll be okay. So let me see this nine of pentacles. Okay. Yeah. See five of cups. That's what I was saying. There's a bit of sorrow at this time in your heart, your emotions, the emotions. I don't feel like a lot of you are feeling overly joyous and happy. You don't have that dopamine hit, so to speak, but you guys are kind of like, hmm. Well, everything else is good in my life. You know, my house is clean and my family's good and I have a job. And so you are looking at your blessings for sure, but your emotions, when it comes to that, for some of you, you're kind of just feeling, I don't know, remorseful, sorrowful, regretful. Um, some of you may feel like if you've left somebody that it was a wrong decision, others of you may feel like, nope, that was the right decision. Some of you just stayed as long as you could or hung on because you didn't want to go through the feeling of sadness. You didn't want to feel that grief. So I get it, Virgo. You know, everything else, if anybody was on the outside looking at you, they would see that you look good, you're strong, you're independent, but your emotions, your heart hurts a little bit here. Okay. Um, but I see in this month here, as difficult as things are, you're going to see, Virgo, that this was all meant to be. This was all a blessing in disguise for you. You may not understand it. You may feel lost and confused at this time. You may be hurting.  You may have a little bit of depression. This is a beautiful thing though. It really is. Luck is on your side here, Virgo. And it's, this is a benefit that's up that you, this decision you made, or if somebody else made the decision for you and you didn't go back, you're moving forward, it's a beautiful thing for now. Okay. There's an emperor coming into your life, Virgo. There's, there's an emperor. There's a person who's coming into your life. This is what this is all meant to be. Whatever you were, you were holding on and kicking a dead horse for a very long time. Some of you feel that way.  You learned some really huge lessons here, Virgo. I do feel like you're trying to keep your mind open in regards to love. You are looking for your other half, your soulmate. You're definitely in that energy. And, and I feel like you're kind of like grieving the loss of a past relationship yet open for someone new and somebody's coming in here. And the reason why, if you haven't met anyone yet, I mean, I feel like this is now and going into the rest of this month. And the reason why this hasn't happened for some of you is because it's a real challenge for you to get that wheel to keep it moving and keep moving forward. Okay. This person comes in exactly as you were hoping your past person would come in. And don't worry, that same attraction that you had for your last person, those feelings that those butterflies in the stomach, they're going to come with this new person. Okay. The emperor is Aries energy for some, it could be an empress. It could be a Libra. But apart from that, it's just energy. This is someone who is respectful. They are courteous. The confidence they have that they did not to it's not ego. It's not high ego. It's just they're self assured. They're good at taking care and nurturing their good father. They're a good mother. They are not someone who is unstable. They're very stable. They probably have a good job and they run a big company. Some of you may have already met this person. Okay. They have a leadership role.  They know who they are. Okay. And this is like a lucky break that's coming in for you. Virgo, this is something that you've been hoping for. This is the person. This could be the one. Some of you have already met this person. This could be the romantic partner that you've been seeking for quite a long time. Okay. Now listen, Virgo. You know what? They said, just get another card for this Emperor. Tell us more about this Emperor. This person comes in with like, it's, I just keep feeling luck. I just feel like you're, you're going to feel that you're going to feel very lucky. What you thought you, okay, this is what they're saying. When you meet this new person, or when you, you know, get yourself in that place to welcome a new love in your life, when that energy comes in, you're going to look back on the past person with a loving heart, but also like, why was I settling for less than I deserve? There's a comparison. Okay. There's a comparison that's kind of going to make you see, I feel like you wish this past person well to some degree because you do love this person, but maybe you just weren't compatible. The chemistry might have been there, but there was some obstacles, maybe religious obstacles, economic, cultural, racial, whatever it might have been here. These, there's, these were factors that played a role in why something didn't go through. It might have been a moral different belief system, a lack of understanding one another, no matter how hard just, you know, I feel like some of you were, were just, maybe you were brought up or raised differently than this person, but you fell in love and you both fell in love with each other, but you weren't in alignment. That's what I feel. And some of you know, you know now, or you knew then that you needed to let go, but some of you were just still holding on. Maybe there was like a physical attraction that was very strong, that chemistry. There was a lack of compatibility for some of you could have been a long distance kind of thing where it just, you know, too far apart. You could have just been right next door to each other and still felt huge distance. Okay. But you tried to stay strong through that situation. So let, all right, let's take a look at this new person coming in. This person is going to be a benefit to your life in a lot of ways. They're going to bring benefit to your life for a go. Okay. They're not just going to, you know, put their dick on the table and say, this is all I got to bring to the table and vice versa. This person is actually, they have the capability to put food on the table. They have the capability to cook for you to clean and that's service stuff, but to provide. That's what I'm saying. Mentally, emotionally, physically, spiritually. Okay.  So you're going to meet this person while you're traveling Bergo or they're going to be traveling. Okay. So traveling, not necessarily like, could they be long distance? I'm not picking that up real strong, but you both could live in the same town but are going home for the holidays and you meet on a plane. That's what I just heard or you meet on a boat right? You both could be from the same place, but it's like his mat.    They're out. They're free. They're single. They're doing their own thing and it's like, boom, here they come. They just show up into your life. I feel it's like around the holidays. Okay. I really do. And Bergo, I see you here with the page of sorts.  This is what's happening here. You have your eyes open. You're looking for something. You're seeking something Bergo. What are you seeking? Okay. King of wands.  Don't, don't, don't sell yourself short, Bergo. Expect the best. Okay. Some of you are just, maybe your past person might have been a fire sign or just whatever your past person was, you might be spying on this person to see how they're doing. This part of the closure for you, Bergo, I don't know. I don't want to say spying. You might just be curious to see if they're okay or see how they're doing, kind of like you're in transition here. This is what I feel because you're still letting go of someone from the past, but then somebody new comes in. So you're kind of like, oh, somebody new and you're happy about this and it'll start to feel good and you'll be like everything I've ever wanted, but you still have those strings energetically attached to someone in the past. So you may not even be looking at this person in any way or are going to where they work or passing past their desk if you work together or anything like that or if you're connected or if they bring the kids or something. You have a curiosity. I'm not going to lie, but I also feel like this new person too has that same curiosity about you. It's interesting. It's to keep getting Leo energy. So for some, this could be Leo. Hmm. Okay. They're just telling me. Oh yeah. Some of you, let's keep it real. After this heart heartache, this heartbreak with somebody, if you like officially broke up with someone and told them you just weren't going to stay involved with them anymore, you're looking to see if this person is showing that they're hurting. That's what the curiosity, it's not, it's not vengeful. It's, it's more like, did they even care? This person even care? That's kind of like your energy. Like, are they showing any emotion? Do they have any regret? Do they feel anything? I feel like you're still kind of curious to know like, okay, something ended like, I ended it. They ended it. I was forced to end it or whatever. But it's like, did they even care? That's what you're curious about. You're wondering that to yourself. Okay. And I feel like some of you, because for some, they may not have showed that they may have wore their poker face.  And a lot of you are struggling with that. I know you are. That's where the heartbreak is. It's like, did they even really love me? What were what was going on all this time? I know a lot of you are in that position. You know, why were, you know, why were we still meeting up every weekend? Why were we connecting? Why were you here? What was it all about? What was it for? Did you even really love me? And I feel like that's what your curiosity, so you're, you're still kind of trying to release that. And at the same time, you have somebody new coming in here. Okay. Oh, spirit just threw a card out here. Okay. So two of sorts on the queen of sorts. So you're definitely in your headspace trying to get clarity at this time. Okay. You're not fully, you're not willing to compromise with your past person at this time. Maybe later, you don't, you never know how things are going to go. But at this time, you're just, you're not even trying to make a decision about anything.  Okay. I feel like a lot of you, you still have those heartstrings attached. The process, you have to trust this process Virgo. I know a lot of you were like, this person, I'm just putting them out of my head, like you're forcing it. A lot of you are just trying to force it away. And you just have to let divine timing work through that. Okay.  This is a gauge of your healing. It's how to gauge your healing.  Trust me. And you're going to say to yourself, wow, I don't feel an emotional attachment any longer. Right. So some of you might just be, you know, you're kind of in this transition. I do feel like you're in a transition, Virgo. And I think it's totally okay. And be gentle and compassionate with yourself. Okay. I do, Virgo, I got to tell you something. I do feel like this. Okay. The Wheel of Fortune just fell out again. So I'll look at that in a second. Virgo, I do feel like this person did have deep, your past person did have deep feelings for you. I do feel that way. I do feel like they truly, they did love you. They had those deep feelings for you. Let me, I just want to take a look. Spirit seeing to see what their, their hidden emotions or their hidden feelings were for you, Virgo, because I want to help give you closure so you can move on. This person, they blamed you probably for why things didn't move forward, but it was really because of them. Okay. I feel like this person just didn't feel worthy of you, Virgo. And there is really nothing you can do about that. And they'll say the timing just wasn't right. Now for some, let's keep this real here. For some of you, this is a timing thing. Some of you needed to release and let go and go with somebody else. I don't know for how long, I don't know if this is going to be your person for the rest of your life, this new person. For some, it could be. And for others of you, it's more like this energy needed to just be released from a past thing. Okay. This person does, look, there's, they also have regret and remorse and a lot of areas for themselves. They wish now that they had treated you better. And I feel like Virgo, it's because this past thing just needed to fizzle out. Lessons to be learned. Okay. So we have the queen of cups here getting in touch with the emotions. You know, guys, I'm just going to do you the favor. I'm going to do you the favor. Okay. Aries, Libra, Gemini Aquarius, Cancer Scorpio, Pisces, Leo, Sagittarius energy for sure. You know, strangers that may seem. There is Virgo here. You might have been connecting with another Virgo. Uh, I'm not seeing Taurus and Capricorn here yet, but I want you to know something about that. And at least not in court cards or Arcana, major Arcana. But what I want you to know, oh, there is Taurus here. It's Capricorn that's missing. Why is Capricorn missing? Some of you were connected with a Capricorn and this person went MIA. Missing disappeared on you like a hardcore supreme ghost. Either that person passed away and you are still struggling with the grieving process, or this person just completely moved on with their life and didn't even give you the benefit of a goodbye or closure. Okay. We're getting a lot of Leo energy here. And I feel for those of you who were connected with someone who didn't pass away, this person really was lacking their confidence and their strength and their ability to give you what they want. That what you wanted. And I feel like that was a major thing. All right, I'm going to do one more card for your past person. Then we're going to go on to the new. Okay. Although I do feel mostly like this is about you. This person, um, buries himself or were they buried themselves in work. Like when you left, they just went into like complete work mode. Maybe always like I'm busy, I'm busy, I'm busy. But they think about everything, the conversations that you both had over the time you were together. They do believe that you will be together again. They do have faith. But for now, Virgo, I just feel like you don't, you're trying to release all the stored up pain. Okay. And here you are with the world card, Virgo. Again, this is like you're walking into the new year. You know, maybe you're transitioning out of all this old stuff, um, for the next couple of months, but you're walking into the new year. Okay. Feet walking forward. Your head is looking back at the past. But I think I feel like this is one last look is one last look.   But I just feel like you're getting to this place where you're like, you know what, I'm not even mad, bro. Not even mad, sis. I just got to keep it moving. I just got to keep moving forward and find my person. Some of you thought this was your person. Okay. And maybe they were, but maybe they weren't your person. It's not Mr. or Mrs. Right. It's, it's Mr. or Mrs. Not the right time. That's what I feel. But did you meet for a reason? You did. Why did Virgo meet this past person? What was the reason for this?  You both, oh, they just told me to feel that spark of love again, to feel that passion again, you both needed to, you were with both of you individually were holding a lot of things in, in your lives, a lot of hurt, a lot of pain, you both needed to get the confidence, build your calm. I feel like that was like the purpose of the relationship was to come to yourselves individually, lessons learned and to stop fighting. There was a lot of pushback Virgo, you went through your life pushing back, pushing back, pushing back, you needed to learn kindness and peace and serenity. And this person did the same thing. And they needed to, they needed to learn confidence and security. All right, enough of them. All right, so here you are moving forward. Okay. And you are 100% moving forward. I feel like the end of 2021, this is a 21 card here, the world, that's your official one last look back and moving forward. Okay. So even though you do have somebody new who's fabulous and wonderful and everything you could ever hope for. Okay. Even though you have that, you're still, you're not rushing into, you're still not rushing into anything just yet. Does that mean you're going to tell this new person? No, absolutely not. You'll go on your dates, you'll spend time, holiday time, you'll do things with them. They're showing up the way you wanted your past person to show up. Your past person was not capable to do that. Does it mean they didn't love you? No, they just didn't have the capability. They may not have even been willing, motivated either. Okay. But that's not your problem. You did what you could do so that one last look back, Virgo, and you're closing the book on it for good. There you are, the king of pentacles. That's it. That's you. Even for the divine feminine, you're embracing your masculine side. Okay. Stability, you get your stability back in a lot of ways. I feel like a past relationship really tore you apart. Okay, five ones, right? See, you're walking away from the drama, you're walking away from the unmanageability and the uncertainty. I feel like whoever you're with before gave you uncertainty. Okay, you know what, you guys? I'm going to get to your new person in a minute. I am, I promise. Just give me a minute. Your advice here is the five of sorts to do the shutdown, to shut it out, to keep doing that, cut it out, cutting out people, places and things that are just unhealthy for you. Okay, whatever that may be for you at this time. That's your advice, Virgo, the five of sorts energy. This is this person here holds three swords. You may have to break a few hearts in the growth process here. You know, when you're changing and growing, as you know, Virgo, there's got to be people who are going to give you pushback about that because that means they may have to grow as well. And then there's others who are going to just support you and give you encouragement to keep going in that direction. But those people, as you're making your decisions and you're cutting out and you're changing things, okay, and getting rid of the uncertainty or the unstable people in your life, people, places and things, your job, your place you live, whatever it is, right? You're just trimming the tree here.  And it just feels like you're going to have to break a few hearts or a heart. But just be careful that you don't get into this. Just be careful that some of you're cutting out the bullying or abusive behaviors as well or people from people. Just be careful that you in doing so, you don't become a bully yourself, but do stand up for yourself. Okay? Okay, yeah, you're cutting out people who are deceptive and lying to you. Look, you, when I said you're cutting out people who are abusive, look at this guy here, okay? He carries five sorts. So this person could not make a decision with the two of sorts here, just left things a stalemate and that felt abusive to you. And here you are.  Your intention is to drive a wedge in between you and this person so that they cannot hurt you anymore, okay? And that's a very specific message, okay? For those of you, I know not everybody was, was connecting with someone who was extremely verbally abusive, you know, calling your names or saying that stuff. And that message is for those of you who were, if that was a past lover, that's the person that you're like, nope, no more of that. And for others, it's just energetic.  All right, let's go in and your advice is to keep doing that, okay? Your advice is to like, run as fast as you can from anything that is going to cause heartache or pain. So let's look at this new person, okay? Some of you, I feel like some of you have seen this person before, okay? Just this new person coming in. Now, maybe I don't know how or where you may have seen this person or you've passed by them, but when you did, this is what, this is how they looked, okay? Yeah, maybe they don't have any hair. They could be bald. And if it's a female, hey, maybe she's going through chemo. So let's not make any jokes. But either way, I feel like when you see this person, this is how you will see them. If you haven't already seen them, they could be sitting at their laptop in a coffee shop. They could be at their desk working. They could be somebody who's a craftsman or working on something or building something. This could be like you're the person, a masculine energy that's building something for you, creating something or drawing something could be an artist. This is kind of like someone who creates or works very hard. This is how I feel like you will see this person. And this person is a very hard worker, okay? They're creating something, they're building something, mass producing something day after day after day after day. Let's take a look here and see what else. It feels like craftsmanship because each one of these pentacles, it's unique. It might be an artisan. It's unique. Each thing that they create is unique and different from the one before. Each thing has its own, this person, I really like the energy, very creative energy for some of you. Oh my God, eight of pentacles on the eight of pentacles.  Listen, look at these, look at the images, okay? Look at the images. This person is very similar to you in a lot of ways because you guys work really hard. This person works really hard. They're building something. There's a, there's a match here in the pentacle energy. There's a match, okay? This person does not, like they work so hard so that they can be able to provide for themselves and others. They do not do well if they're not working. Are they like a workaholic where they're not involved, like they can't have time for relationship? No, I don't feel that way at all. I feel like they just understand they have a very strong work ethic. They may have, when you meet them, they may have had some financial loss in the past, okay? Let's take a look here. Yeah, ace of pentacles, but they've recovered. Oh, I feel like this could be like a loan officer. Look at all this pentacle energy. You guys, there's so much similarity here between you and this person. Oh yeah. Okay, they're just giving me this message for some of you.  That kind of thing. Have I seen you before? You look familiar to me. That kind of energy playing out, but this is like, oh look, the two of cups is the bottom of the deck. This is soulmate energy. This is what I said. Keep an open mind. Your soulmate may differ from usual type and expectations. So I see similarity, but there's something about you and this person that there's, it's like, wow, it's not like your past person. They're not like that. What you thought your past person was your type. This person is not usually your type, yet it's the same feeling. It's the same wow feeling. It's crush. It's smitten. It's enthusiasm. It's excitement. This person will feel about you the way you feel about them, the communication. It's like excitement.  Like this is not usually what I'm attracted to, but man, there's this thing. There's a spark. That's what the page of wands is, like a spark gets ignited between the two of you. Look at that. You guys get together. I feel like there's like dinner or drinks or meeting here. There's a mutuality between the two of you. That's just so beautiful. Look at the spark here on that cup. Okay, there's a light, this chemistry, but there's also compatibility as well, which is the two of cups. Now, some of you may already be, have already met this person, like you're already involved with them.  And that's fine, because you're transitioning out of one thing and into the next. It doesn't feel like a rebound or anything like that. I feel like whomever you were with in the past was for quite some time, like a long enough time where it's not a rebound. It's not a rebound. This feels like something you need to be experiencing in your life at this time. Somebody completely different, somebody completely unexpected, not your usual type. You need to have that contrast I feel to help you understand better what you were in. Let's see. Now your hopes and fears. So you're kind of on the fence. Like some of you, I feel like you do, some of you do want this new love, and some of you are indifferent.  You're kind of like one foot out the door and one foot in the past. It's kind of like you're in slow motion. That's what I just feel slow motion. You want new love to come in, but still you're grieving. You're still heartbroken a little bit here.  So you're not rushing into anything right away. And that's okay. You're hoping for you have to look at that. That's a ace, ace of cups right there by the clouds, see the hand coming down.  You're hoping for that, right? But you're also fearing it because you don't know if you're ready. And that's fine. I don't feel like somebody new that's coming in here has any intention to push you or rush you into anything. Their excitement and their overzealous joy and smitten and crush energy with you may make you feel like they're trying to rush you. But I don't feel like they really are. I just feel like they're just overwhelmed with they feel so free. They're just so happy to have met you and for you to even be giving them a chance or a time of day. Okay. So they feel enthusiastic about you. And it may seem it may feel to you like, Oh, there's it's smothering. It's too quick. I'm not ready. It's okay. You can express that to them. You could just tell them don't I feel like that, you know, energy with this person will wear off a bit and things will settle down a little bit. So try not to you don't have to you don't have to rush. You do what's best for you, Virgo. That's what I feel. Do what is best for you. Let's take a look at your outcome here. Okay, you have the eight of sorts, and you have the 10 of sorts.  That's going to be done with that's going to be over any kind of betrayal that you felt with someone in the past. That's ending. Okay. Like in other words, that hit you took to your self esteem by loving someone who wasn't loving you back or wasn't treating you well. Or who betrayed you. Okay. I feel like you hit rock bottom with that. Like I feel like in other words, that energetic pain that you feel from something from someone in the past, what they did, it comes to an end. Now this could be going into the new year. I'm hearing the dates December 8 or December 10. And I'm going to give you guys dates because I didn't give the dates. Oh yeah, look, six of cups here. I do feel that I'm going to tell you Virgo. Remember when I said this person feels like you will be together again? This person I do feel once the negative energy releases and it's gone and things have settled, I do feel like your past person is going to reach out and try to reconcile with you. Now does that mean they're going to try to stir up this relationship again? Not necessarily. It could be just the closure that you needed. And by that time, maybe you won't need it anymore. But it could be closure coming in for some and that might enclosure in the sense where it's like, you know what, let's let bygones be bygones. It wasn't meant to be. I wish you well. I wish you well too. That kind of thing for some it could be that for others. It could just be that this person realizes that the way that they put restrictions on your relationship this past person and how they betrayed you that come in with an apology or they come in to try to like sort things out with you and see if you guys can have a fresh brand new start. Now Virgo isn't always the way it goes. So you have a decision at some point in your life, you don't have to make a decision right now about a new person or a past person.  Well, the tower is here. So this will be a shock. I feel like Virgo, a lot of you, I do feel like this person will never do something like that. They will never make some kind of apology. It's just not in them. It's just not how they are. Why would they? I'm not even sure that they loved me. I do feel like that you're going to get the shock of your life that this person is going to actually come to their senses.  And I think you felt that too, but there's a lot of unanswered questions about what happened. I do feel like this person is going to tell you maybe they were on their addictions.  They may have had depression, anxiety. This person may have had some type of a mental disorder or something along those lines or something from their childhood that they're getting help with. It feels like an energy of like they're thinking about the past and they just want everything to just be broken down and try to start over. But some of you are also in this position where thank you for saying that. Thank you for giving me that. I needed that. But I think I've met my true soulmate now. This whole thing is just come to a finale here. I'm done with it and you're moving on because you've met somebody else. So you have some stuff going on here, Virgo. I'm not going to lie. The magician is here. So this is like there's definitely a manifestation happening at the end of this time period going into I feel like December that somebody is going to try to come back and try to start over and rebuild and try to creatively make something have laying all their cards on the table 100%. But that is also happening for you in a new love relationship as well. So you're going to have to choose from the past and not necessarily I don't see you being in a dilemma here at all. I feel like when that time comes, you're going to know. You're going to know. You're going to know what's the best thing to do. I can't choose for you. I can't tell you if you know what you need to do here. I want to but I feel like in this reading here, I I don't I don't see anything here that's saying make a decision for yourself. I feel like trust your intuition and when the time comes, you'll know what to do. I just want to get your messages of love here. I'm going to pull some numbers for you. I'm going to pull some dates. I did say December 8th through the 10th might be significant or November 8th through the 10th was significant. Okay here and now your true love is already part of your life. Oh my gosh, this coincides with this could be the one you've already met the romantic partner you seek. So some of you are with someone right now. Okay, this is this is your true love the person you are with right now. Okay, if you need that confirmation, that's it right there. Okay, if you don't have anybody that you're with right now, this could be somebody coming in. Like I said, you may have already seen them or experienced them in some way. Maybe you saw them in your mind's eye or you had dreams about this. They keep showing up in your dreams. You're manifesting this person. Oh my goodness. They may be in your periphery and not actually here. Okay, spiritual lesson. This person, this new person is in your life to teach you a spiritual lesson, but a healing one. I feel like maybe the last connection you had was in your life to teach you a karmic lesson. I don't know if you gave out bad karma from other relationships and you got it back. Hey, listen, it happens karma is karma. If there was bad karma that you gave out somewhere somehow maybe you don't even remember something in your past and somebody came into your life. I know there are some people who were like some burgos who were in relationships and were cheating on their partner and then left their partner for the for the one they were cheating with. And then that cheating partner dumped them or cheated on them. That's like bad karma, right?  It's just the choices we make. When we make good choices, we get that good stuff back. At the time, somebody may have felt like the decision they were making was a good decision, but come to find out later that maybe that wasn't. And now there's consequences to that. Okay. That's not all of you, but let's keep it real here.  We are all imperfect beings. We human beings are so complex. We are all so complex.  I see now, I understand. Maybe that are reflecting back on past decisions. You know, Virgos all want your past person to reflect on their past decisions. Well, Virgo has to do it too, right? So we keep it real here. So this new person, I feel like is in your life to bring healing to you in some way, one way or another. Okay. Is it going to be romantic? I feel for some of you, this will be a new romantic partner for others. This feels like it could be somebody coming in who comes in as a very good friend or a mentor or someone that is a spiritual guru or something. Okay. To help you heal or to help you deal or to help you. Okay. They just said heal from your hurt and your pain and your grief. So that because you want to pass person needed to go through this healing process in order to come back fresh and brand new again, there needs to be a lot of forgiveness. Okay. Some of you that is your story. This may not be a romantic partner coming in new here. This could be someone who comes in and kind of takes a place of a romantic partner, but takes a place as a spiritual healer. All right. So keep that in mind. Keep it in mind. Remember, it's general and go a whole bunch of different ways. Let's see what else. Okay. Obsession. Someone is connection is gripped by obsessive thoughts. Virgo, that's you. I feel like that's you. You're still letting go. Some of you just got ghosted or something happened and you have not been able to process the closure. And when that happens, there's a tendency to obsess over and over in your mind about, well, what did I say? Or what did I do? Or what didn't I say? What didn't I do? What happened? What happened? What happened? The obsessive, it's not obsessed with the person. It's obsessive thoughts about trying to resolve something in your heart and your mind. Don't beat yourself up about that. That happens when somebody leaves or even when someone passes away unexpectedly, there's always those questions. And there's always these tumultuous feelings, you know, a roller coaster of emotion that comes through what happened, why I could have done this, like, so just label that when you feel that that's happening to you, label it. Okay. And say, oh, I'm obsessing about this. And what do I need to do to get some relief in my heart and my mind? It's to pray or to talk to somebody. Okay. Or to write. Writing is very cathartic and healing. Okay. Yeah, you do have new love coming in, Virgo. And so as I said before, I'm going to say it again, there is new love, but there's also a recommitment to an old love between two people. Something's developing here. Okay. Healing. Listen, Virgo. The number one thing, if this is your story and what's going on with you, the number one thing I feel the message here they're saying is to focus on your healing first. Just do that first. Don't worry about everything and anybody else. Remember, I said the other day, when you're just undecided, you don't know what to do. You don't know what path to take. If you need to just be done with something or just keep going. Don't worry about that. When you're focusing on you and your healing and what's in the benefit for you, everything else just resolves itself. Let the chips fall where they may. Trust the process. Give it up to spirit and say, you know what? You take this right now. I need to focus on this boiling pot of water that's right in front of me that I got to deal with right here right now and that is my boiling heart. Okay. Children are important to this partnership. Okay. So there may somebody might have children. Okay. You could be meeting someone that has children as in a romantic partner. There could be children that are from a past relationship that you guys need to sort some things out as well. All right. Let me see. I just kind of feel like spirit's telling me to keep going. Longing. Someone is secretly longing and yearning for you. We need to ask spirit. Can you tell Virgo who is secretly longing for Virgo? Who is this? Is this a new or an old? What can you tell us about this Virgo? For Virgo. Oh, this is a new person. Okay. For some of you, it's Aquarius, but this new person has a yearning for you. Of course, Virgo. Longing. They are very attracted to you, this new person. They say, okay, protected. You are safe and divinely guided. I feel like it's a very strong message. You needed to hear that. Somebody here needed to hear that. Some of you are just, I don't know, calling for protection, praying to Archangel Michael, praying to your angels for protection at this time, protecting your heart. For some of you, you're in a safe place and healing. Here we go, Virgo. That's what I'm talking about. The healing. The healing is so important right now. You know what, you guys? I'm going to skip the charms today. We're just going to go into dates. Okay. And I know you guys love the charms. I'll just pull one. I'm just going to get one. Okay. They said one charm. Wow. That's so funny. It's like a flower. It's a bronze yellowish flower with black in the center, which is interesting. I was just looking at wall decor flowers that look just like this today, this morning. So I was doing a little shopping. So let's see. You might have a clock that looks like that. Somebody has a clock on the wall. Oops. This feels like bronze and black, I'm hearing. Oh, they just gave me the Saints football team.  Something about black and gold, Saints, the Saints. And I was talking about Archangel Michael. I feel like that's a message here. Yes. They're saying you need to start, if you haven't already, or if you've been slacking, or if you just forgot, you need to start praying to Archangel Michael, or praying to Spirit or God for protection. Angel's protection like to guide you to fight your battles for you. You're exhausted, Virgo. You're tired. Ask them to fight your battles for you. That's what I just heard. Very important message. All right, let's go and take a look at dates. What important dates does Virgo need to know this time? Important dates for Virgo. Wow. Okay. And I'm not going to call out the cards. We're looking at the dates. Okay. Somebody's name. All right. They're giving me, they're also, they're telling me to give you initials as well. We, so I'm going to give you letters. Okay. R is the letter R. We have the letter Z and H. They're also giving me January 18th. It might be an important time. Okay. They're giving me a G, a letter G. They're giving me March 8th, February 14th to Valentine's Day. I don't know. Valentine's Day. Significant. February 1st. They're giving me a letter K and letter K and the letter N as a no and an S. They're giving me May 5th, July 8th. Bear with me, you guys. Bear with me. We have a letter A. Okay. I'm also hearing the 17th. Okay. The 17th is significant date or day. A letter C. Sorry, you guys. Letter C and also the 5th and also the 16th. We got the letter P and oh, that's strange. They're just saying the word me, me, like M-E or M-I, me and an O. Okay. I'm also hearing again the 10th, maybe December 10th, something significant. There's some new start happening on the 10th, December 10th perhaps. I just heard somebody say my knees hurt. Something with my knee or I did something to my knee. I hurt my knee. I injured my knee. I had knee surgery. This is when I'm, you guys, this is when I'm really channeling hard here. Somebody's name is Aaron or Ariana or Ariel. Did somebody recently purchase something from a 7-Eleven? I don't know. But I feel like there's a November, someone born in November, maybe the 7th I heard as well. And I'm also hearing either the 9th or September 9th. December 3rd, a significant day. And also in March 13th, as they just, somebody just said, I heard a voice that they said not right now. Somebody said not right now. Somebody's name is Joe, J-O, J-O-E, J-O, JoJo, JoAnne, Joe.  Oh, and then I just heard J-E, like G, G, Joe, G, Gina, Jeff, June 20th, they said. Oh, Ursula or U, something about U, letter U or U, Ursula, a U. Then they're giving me June 19th. I love when they speak to me. I love it. Okay, did somebody, somebody called somebody queen? Somebody called somebody queen. Okay, that was like a name. Maybe it was the first time we ever heard that or that was a nickname for someone. There's something to do with the queen. Okay, Ripali, I'm hearing. And then they're saying February 6th.  Roar like a lion, like arrr. And that's a pirate. Maybe roar like a pirate. I don't even freaking know. You guys, I just want to get one more message for you and then I'm going to close it out. Yeah, I didn't go like, I was going to go like, no, never mind. I'm going to leave it. Oh, here you go. Test of faith and boundaries. This is the like major theme for what's going on here, Virgo. You are being tested for sure. I feel like that is the whole theme of this reading, overarching theme, a test of faith and boundaries, as you sort through some pretty serious things in your heart at this time. And as you process something out with the old and in with the new, and then the old comes back and then you've got the new and what are you doing and you have a lot going on. So look at this table. It is nothing but cards everywhere and I love it. I'm going to like, see if I can make a table with all of my old decks and just kind of glue all the cards down like this and then put some glass over top of it. And that looks so cool. I would love that. All right, you guys. So this felt like kind of kind of deep, but kind of like a moving on kind of reading. So I hope that this gave you some clarity. That's for sure. And of course, I will be back tomorrow night to do the next day's reading. I hope that you like it. At least if you did, please do hit a like on the video. And if you haven't subscribed yet, please do subscribe and tick the notification bell so that you will be alerted when I upload.  First of all, when you tick the bell, click all notifications and then make sure when you go into your phone, you have that enabled in the app, if you have the app.  But if you're using your phone, you got to enable it in your phone or you won't know. And it'll just drop down or you'll get some type of message that, hey, this video is about to start in 30 minutes because I always premiere them.  All right, you guys, so make sure that you log in to the link below the video to go over and book a reading if you need one. I'm going to be offering new services on my booking site for new different types of readings. Okay, so just keep checking back and I will let you know what I have. 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Hello, I'm Oliver Perra and this is the second part of my introduction to Bayesian Regret. In the first presentation I had provided a broad overview of the Bayesian approach. In this second presentation I will apply that to the case of regression analysis. And before that I just wanted to provide a quick reminder of what we mean by linear regression. Linear regression models basically try to learn about the mean and variance of a measurement variable using an additive combination of other measurements. So the basic formula is in fact this one I presented here where the value of an outcome variable y for each individual i will be equal to the sum of parameters a and the product of parameters b and by a predictor x. And there is also an element e that represents individual variation from the expected scores. Parameter a represents the value that outcome y takes when predictor x is equal to zero so it is called intercept. Parameter b represents the change in outcome y associated with one unit increase in predictor x and it is also called the slope. The parameter e is supposed to be normally distributed with mean zero and the variance that we can estimate. So one important point is that linear regression uses normal distributions to describe uncertainty about measurements. And most of you are probably familiar with a normal distribution. It's a bell shaped symmetrical distribution and it's basically defined by two parameters the mean indicated by the Greek letter mu as you can see here at the bottom of this slide and the standard deviation indicated by the Greek letter lower case sigma as you can see here again in the bottom of the slide. In this graph also in the slide also represent the different examples of normal distributions that all have the same mean mu equals zero but with different standard deviations. So just a quick reminder how standard normal distribution changes in its aspect depending on these parameters mu and sigma. So I have provided an example of how conventionally regression analysis is formalized but in running a linear regression using Bayesian approaches the regression model can be described in a slightly different way as you can see here. This may be bizarre and probably it's a bit more cryptic to many of you. However there are many advantages in using this alternative notation and description. One is that for example many of the assumptions of linear regression such as homoscedasticity and others are more explicitly read from a similar notation. This notation also provides a more flexible way of describing a linear regression model which also allows to specify different assumptions in a more straightforward way and I will provide an example that should make this notation clearer and also show the advantages of using this notation. So for this example I have used some fictional data that I have created and you can find them with the material for this module together with the script I have used to provide these examples so online for the script and the data. So this fictional data set represents newborns birth weight in grams by maternal weight in kilograms. Studies have indicated that there is an association between maternal weight and newborns birth weight and this is the regression model that I will develop in the example. So to start the analysis in a Bayesian approach I need a prior and model that represents the plausibility of parameters before I see the data before I collect any data and before I see the data I can safely assume that the distribution of newborns birth weights is going to be approximately normal with a mean new and a standard deviation sigma. So in the green circle here you can see the notation I have used to say that the birth weight of infants is going to be approximately normally distributed with a mean mu and standard deviation sigma and we'll now move to other parameters in the model. So the purpose of Bayesian analysis is to estimate a posterior distribution that represents the plausibility of different combinations of parameters conditional on the data I have collected so learning from the data I have collected and the model that I had developed before seeing the data. So here I move to the second line the second equation circled in orange. In linear regression I can assume that the mean mu of the distribution of birth weights will be equal to the sum of an intercept A and the sum of the product of the slope B by the predictor maternal weight. So here the slope B represents the change in newborns birth weight associated with one kilogram increase in maternal weight and it makes easier to standardize or center predictors in linear regression and in this case I centered maternal weight so that maternal weight is expressed as an deviation from the average maternal weight and the average maternal weight in this sample was 72.01 which is actually the average maternal weight in England according to some statistics. So here the intercept then represents the expected birth weight of newborns when mother has an average birth weight of about 72 kilograms. Note that by linking the mean mu to this equation where mu is represented as a function of the intercept and the slope I am making the value of mu dependent on the other parameters A and B. So A and B are now measurable properties that are uncertain parameters in a Bayesian approach and I will need some prior assumptions on these to make the Bayesian analysis start. In most cases the parameters in a model are specified independently so here in yellow I cycled the prior for the standard deviation of birth weight. Here the notation basically means that the standard deviation sigma is expected to be approximately distributed following a uniform distribution that ranges from 0 to 100 grams. So this just means that I am considering any standard deviation of newborns birth weight from 0 to 1 kilograms 1000 grams equally probable. And why did I choose 1 kilogram as the upper bound in this uniform distribution of probability? But if birth weight is normally distributed then I know that 95 percent of the values will be between minus two standard deviations plus two standard deviations. And therefore I thought that it is sensible to assume that 90 percent of birth weights will be between two kilograms above or below the population average. If the average birth weight of children is four kilograms 95 percent of babies would have birth weight between two and six kilograms. So I thought that was sensible enough to assume. Now what other prior assumptions should I have for the other parameters in the model? And let's consider first a model with no prediction, no predictor. So assuming that the maternal birth weight is average parameter A then highlights highlighted in the red circle represents the distribution of birth weight for mothers of average birth weight. So what priors should I give to this? We know that normal birth weight varies between 2500 grams and 4000 grams. So let's say that I might expect that the average of for children of mothers with average weight may be say 3,300 grams. So 3.3 kilos. So this is the value I put here for the normal distribution of the intercept circling red. And the standard deviation say maybe 1,500 grams. So 1.5 kilos. And again, since I am assuming a normal distribution, I know that 95 percent of cases fall between two standard deviations below or above the mean. So if I take these values as good, I would expect that the average birth weight has 95 percent probability of being between 300 grams and 6,300 grams. And note that I'm talking about the mean. And I know the average birth weight can hardly be 300 grams in any typical population. So this seems to be a very broad prior and probably unrealistic one. And in fact, it is always a good idea to plot the priors to have an idea of what we are assuming, what are our assumptions before we run the analysis. In the script I have attached with the course material, you can see how I have created this plot that represents the priors specified here for the intercept. And if you look at this probability distribution in the graph, you can see this is not a very good prior. The prior assumes as possible that some average birth weights will be 0 or even negative. You can see in the horizontal axis the birth weights of children and the horizontal vertical line here represents 0. So you can see that some, however unlikely, but still this prior is assuming as possible some to observe some negative values, which is obviously not a very sensible assumption. And shall we care, after all, the model will learn from the data and will update the posterior concedering the data. So if we have numerals data, not having a sensible prior will not matter that much, but this is not always the case. So it always makes sense to construct some sensible priors. And many of us highlight that as long as the priors are specified, we see the data, there's nothing wrong in using knowledge and substantive knowledge about the issues to provide some priors that are plausible and sensible. So here I changed the prior for the intercept where I keep the mean to be expected to be 3,300 grams, but the standard deviation is 600 grams. So this means that before seeing the data, I am assuming that there is a 95% possibility that the average birth weight of babies of mothers of average weight will range between 1 kilo and 200 grams, more or less the average. And this is the representation in the graph, you can see the representation of this prior where the expectations are more sensible. So you can check the script I have provided with the material of this course to see how I created this graph. So I keep this prior for the intercept and I'll move to the slope. So here circled in blue are the parameters for the slope and the slope indicates the increase in newborns birth weight for a one unit increase in maternal weight compared to the average maternal weight. So I may start by assuming that this uncertainty parameter is normally distributed and has a mean zero and a standard deviation of 50. Because I'm assuming a normal distribution saying that the mean of this distribution for the slope is zero means that I am assuming there is as much probability of the parameter being below zero as above zero. And if the slope is zero, there is no association between child's birth weight, maternal weight. Why choosing this? It does make sense to choose the least informative distribution that is consistent with our knowledge about. So in this case, you can see I am opting for a skeptical prior because I am not assuming that the association between the predictor and the outcome has a specific sign and I am also considering as plausible that might even be zero. So there is no association between the predictor and the outcome. And the rationale for choosing similar broad and skeptical priors is that since the posterior distribution on which we base our conclusions is estimated by learning from the likelihood of the data, it does make sense to have priors that keep the models learning from the data in check. So in a sense we want priors that regularize this process. This just means skeptical priors avoid overfitting while still allowing the model to learn from the regularities in the sample data in the data we observe. And for more discussion about this, I refer to the book Statistical Refinking by Michael Ra and particularly chapter seven where there is more discussion about this. The point really is that to have some sensible priors, but priors that in a way are more skeptical and keep the learning from the data in check. So the data are not just, the posterior distributions are not just skewed or not overfitting new data. It's also important that similar broad priors are checked in sensitivity analysis and some of their references, particularly the reference from Krushka, I included, emphasized the importance of sensitivity analysis where when using broad priors or skeptical priors like that, analysis are then run, changing these priors to other broad priors that are possible and check if different priors still produce the same pattern of results. So it's important that because there are many different priors, we can assume we also check the sensitivity of the posterior distributions to different type of priors. And I refer to the different references I have put with the material of this course. So I assume here that the mean of the slope is zero and the standard deviation is 50, which means that 95% of the times the effect of maternal weight will vary with using baby's weight by 100 grams or adding 100 grams for each kilo of maternal weight or over the average maternal weight. This is a large effect and you can see this by looking at the graph I report here where I am plotting the slopes implied by this prior assumption. And again you can see the script I have used to create this graph, but you can see that this is really creating very implausible slopes where some maternal weights associated with incredibly high or incredibly low newborn's weights and that even fall below zero. And the other horizontal line here represents 2500 kilos, which is the threshold for... So you can see that the slopes implied by this prior assumption about the slope are incredibly implausible and they describe incredibly strong relationships that fall side of the possible range of newborn's birth weights. So changing the standard deviation of the slope to 25 grams here provides assumptions that are more plausible and here you can see them represented and again you can check the script I have used. So this seems like a plausible assumption for the slope. So now I have a model ready to analyze the data I'm going to collect. So I have a likelihood function, a function that represents how my data the observed birth weights of newborns may have come about. The likelihood is saying that the underlying distribution that may have generated the birth weights I'm going to observe is normal with mean. It's normally approximately normally distributed with mean, new and standard deviation sigma. I also have a linear model that says that the average of birth weights is a linear function of addictive association with an intercept and the slope that represents the rate of change for different units of maternal weight, changes in maternal weight from the average maternal weight. And then I have prior assumptions about the distribution of these different parameters where I am assuming that the slope is normally distributed around an average of three kilos and 300 grams and the fact of the slope is normally distributed about around an average of zero. So it may be positive negative or null. And then I am assuming that the standard deviation of newborns birth weight may take any value between zero and one kilo. So I will use these different elements prior likelihood and my linear model to update my assumptions about the distributions of these parameters and rank the plausibility of these different combinations of these parameters based conditionally on the data I'm going to observe and conditionally on the model I have just described here. So I will do this in the next presentation. And so thank you very much for your attention and please remember to check the web page of the National Research Methods for more material and other resources. Thank you.


Recently, Canonical, the company behind Ubuntu, posted a new job offering on their website. They're looking for someone to become the Linux desktop gaming product manager, and this person, this role will be for somebody that can drive engagement and adoption. The role requires an analytical storyteller with a strong sense of message and a deep understanding of Linux graphics, gaming, desktop technologies, and community. Basically, they want someone to help get a better gaming experience specifically on Ubuntu, and of course, they want somebody to convey that message to the community to preach just what a wonderful experience gaming on Ubuntu can be. And I find this job posting very interesting, because I do think it confirms something that I've been saying for a number of years now, and that Ubuntu has kind of been resting on its laurels, right? Ubuntu kind of just quit trying to actually make desktop Linux work, because Canonical, the company behind Ubuntu, they make all their money in the server space.  They don't make any money on Ubuntu, the desktop. So in the last four or five years, it seems like they've kind of just forgotten about desktop Linux. They really don't give it much lip service, and they really don't do much to actually improve desktop Linux, the experience. And it shows because so many other desktop Linux distributions out there have rose up in the last few years. I mean, Manjaro has just exploded on the scene here in the last few years, right? Manjaro has become a very popular new user friendly distribution that has a good gaming experience. PapOS, the same thing in the last few years, PapOS exploded in popularity. And again, new user friendly distribution, and it has a really good gaming experience as far as getting, you know, the latest and greatest drivers and kernel and things like that. And these distributions have really shown just how far behind Canonical has fallen, because, you know, Canonical is not a good gaming Linux distribution. And that's why they're hiring this product manager. It's because, you know, in 2012, when Valve first came out with Steam on Linux, they actually recommended Ubuntu as the distribution to use for Steam on Linux. And the reason they did that is because Ubuntu was the most popular Linux distribution by far, you know, on the desktop. So they catered to Ubuntu. But quickly, I think they realized that Ubuntu, just the whole development model, you know, the static release model with Ubuntu, and just the fact that Ubuntu and the company behind it, Canonical, didn't seem that interested in, you know, the whole desktop experience anyway. You know, they quickly transitioned to promoting other Linux distributions. Valve, eventually, when they did the first Steam OS, of course, they decided to actually base off of straight Debian rather than Ubuntu. And of course, now they finally transitioned to where most of desktop Linux, I think would agree, is the best gaming experience, which is Arch Linux, Arch Linux-based distributions.  If you want the latest and greatest, you need to be on a rolling release. And Arch Linux is kind of the king of rolling release desktop Linux distributions. I think one of the biggest reasons why Ubuntu lags behind as far as being a good Linux gaming distribution is there's so much development being done on Steam on Linux and Wine and Proton and Vulkan and all of these technologies, they're constantly coming out with this new cutting edge, bleeding edge technology that you can't just go and then go get these new experimental apps from the app package manager in Ubuntu. They're not going to be in the repose, right? You got to go jump through some hoops, you've got to go try to enable some experimental PPAs to get some of these new packages, or maybe go find a snap pack or even a flat pack or, you know, some third party package, maybe you even have to build it from source, where on an Arch-based distribution, you wouldn't have to do any of that, because typically on Arch, as soon as a new app is ready, and as soon as it's been introduced into the repository, it's ready like the next day, right? You can go grab it and it's ready to go. You don't have to jump through any weird hoops to go install third-party packages that may or may not be trustworthy. I think the most glaring indictment of Ubuntu and the failure of Ubuntu as a Linux gaming distribution is some of these big tech YouTubers that are now giving Linux a serious try as far as a regular day-to-day operating system as a gaming operating system, especially none of them are trying out mainline Ubuntu, right? When you see people like the Linus Tech Tips guys and, you know, they're not downloading mainline Ubuntu and trying to make that thing a gaming operating system, right? They're downloading things like Manjaro, PapoS, Linux Mint, right? I think that really says everything you need to know about how far Ubuntu has fallen in the last four or five years. And honestly, I'm not sure that canonical and Ubuntu can turn this thing around. I'm not sure that they're ever going to be a suitable desktop gaming Linux distribution, just because I don't think Ubuntu is suited for that task. I don't think they're suited for gaming. It's just the way Ubuntu is designed. The whole development model, the static release model, you know, and of course Ubuntu, the mainline Ubuntu, is really predicated on being a stable, you know, a long-term support distribution, right? It's more along the lines of something like Debian stable rather than Arch Linux, right? And you can't be one of these old, crusty, rot-solid, stable Linux distributions and then, at the same time, be good for gaming. And I think another reason why Ubuntu lags way behind as far as a good desktop gaming experience is the fact that Ubuntu as a distribution is not focused on the gaming experience. Obviously, they're trying to correct that by hiring this new gaming product manager. But what I'm talking about is desktop Ubuntu. They're focused really, when you think about Ubuntu, you think about two technologies, right? You think about snap packs and you think about GNOME. Because Ubuntu, the the main ship edition of Ubuntu, is so heavily invested in snap packages, right? That seems like all they work on these days. And of course, the desktop is the GNOME desktop, which not everybody loves the GNOME desktop, right? That's one of the advantages something like Arch Linux has over Ubuntu is the fact that Arch Linux doesn't have a desktop environment that it's married to, right? They don't promote GNOME or KDE or XFCE, right? If you want any of those desktop environments, you go install it, it doesn't matter which one. Arch doesn't care, right? Where Ubuntu, Ubuntu is married to GNOME, right? It's married to the snap technology that they created. And as long as there's so many people out there that just can't stand GNOME and can't stand snap packages, they're never going to give your distribution a try. You can make it the most fantastic gaming Linux distribution out there. It could be fantastic. It could be better than Windows Gaming.  As long as you're focused on that, right? And that's the problem is for the last few years, Ubuntu has been focused on stuff that the community simply doesn't care about. Nobody in the community cares about snap packages. I don't care.  I'll install them. I have nothing for or against snaps, but I don't necessarily want a Linux distribution that all they're doing is working on snap packages, right? And trying to, you know, when they ship new versions of their distribution, some of the programs installed are actually installed by default as snaps. They're like, nobody wants that. Nobody's asking for that. And when that's what you're working on, that's why you've dropped the ball. That's why you're no longer the leader on the Linux desktop. And that's why, in many ways, I think Ubuntu would be better served to actually look at some of the leaders in this space. You know, pay attention to what PapoS is doing right now. Pay attention to what Manjaro is doing right now, because they are getting Linux on the desktop, right? Because they're actually focusing on the stuff that actually matters to the people. I do wish Ubuntu luck in finding somebody for this Linux desktop gaming product manager position. If any of you guys want to apply for it, you know, I'll actually link to it in the show description, because I do think it's a worthwhile gig. And I do think I would love for Ubuntu to knock this out of the park and really make Ubuntu a much better desktop gaming experience, because I think not only would it improve Ubuntu, but I think it would improve the entire Linux ecosystem. Now, before I go, I need to thank a few special people. I need to thank the producers of the show, Devon Gabe, James Matt, Michael Mitchell, Paul Scott, Wiss, Kami Allen, the Linux Ninja Chuck Commander, Kurt Dayokai, Dylan. Oh my goodness, the COVID is acting up on me. I got through most of the video without coughing up along Gregory Higo, Kaskali, Max, Mike, Nitrix, Erion, Alexander, Peace, Archive, Vador, Polydeck, Raver, Rip profits, even Willy. These guys, they're my last tier patrons over on Patreon without these guys. This quick rant about Linux desktop gaming, it wouldn't have been possible. The show's also brought to you by each and every one of these ladies and gentlemen as well. All these names you're seeing on the screen right now, these are all my supporters over on Patreon, because I don't have any corporate sponsors. I'm just sponsored by you guys, the community. If you like my work and want to support me, look for DistroTube over on Patreon. All right, guys. Peace. I guess I need to update my resume.


Moving swiftly along, we can't use that kind of language on YouTube, but today I thought we'd go through some hunting articles. Look at this one here out of the USA, Alaska. We've got a grizzly bear that mauled a hunter. The hunter survived the attack and shot and killed the bear. Now the hunter was out killing rabbits.  And in the process of him murdering these rabbits, a bear came to murder him and eat him. And the man shot the bear and killed the bear. I don't know why the man just didn't lay down and just become part of the circle of life and say, hey, you know what grizzly bear? You can eat me.  I'm basically in your territory now.    This hunter here thought it was fine to go out shooting rabbits to death to probably eat them, skin them, wear their skin. I don't know why he just didn't submit himself to the bear and be part of the kumbaya, the circle of life. It's interesting when you see these bear attacks and people actually get murdered by bear out in the woods or sharks or something like that. No one ever comes running along and goes, you know what, circle of life, mate? They need to eat meat to survive and survival of the fittest. Nah, human beings come out there, grab some guns. There's a great clip from Gary Aroski. Every time a bear kills a hiker, what do we do? Start singing Hakuna Matata?   Very, very interesting one. Let's see some comments here. We've got Stacey says, that's so sad. A mama bear just trying to protect her babies. Ah, the mama bear apparently had her cubs trailing with her and she was just trying to protect her cubs from this guy with a gun. Chris said the bear was protecting her cubs.  Could this hunter have not used bear spray, which would have worked just as well? Wait a second, this hunter killed the bear. Isn't that the circle of life as well? What's going on with these commenters? Like, yeah, the hunter was out shooting rabbits. You didn't say anything about that. Let me get this straight. This is species is encapsulated here. So this hunter was out there shooting rabbits to death. Little innocent rabbits that harm no one. He gets attacked by a bear, another circle of life thing. He shoots the bear, kills the bear, another circle of life thing, okay? And all of a sudden everyone's upset about the bear being killed, you know? But not the rabbits. What if he ate the bear? What if he was out there shooting the bears to kill and eat? Is that okay? Society has this weird fetish with carnivorous animals. It's almost bizarre. Like, the rabbit's okay to kill, the deer's okay to kill, but if someone shoots like a coyote or a bear, it's like, it's crazy injustice. People were so upset about this bear being killed, they probably ate a steak sandwich last night for dinner. They're probably eating bacon and eggs every morning where animals are being tortured and gas chambered and murdered. But as soon as a guy shoots a bear in self-defense and kills the bear, it's, oh my God, why don't you use pepper spray? Oh my God, we love this bear. He's out there murdering rabbits and no one says, it's crazy. These people are so morally inconsistent and lost and confused. They don't know whether they're coming or going when it comes to animal ethics. Like, what the is wrong with you?  So this one is the 13th of June a day before this Alaska bear shooting. A man has been seriously injured after he was accidentally shot at a golf club. Irish police believe he may have been mistaken for an animal by a person out hunting in the area.  You can only shoot other non-human animals because if you shoot a non-human animal, that's completely fine. But if you shoot a human animal, that's completely crazy. Even if it's the same gun by the same hunter. It is understood one of the hunters saw movement in the dark, mistook the man for an animal and discharged around. Irish police do not believe the shooting to be sinister. So let me get this straight. Police didn't think it was sinister for a man to be out there at night time with a gun shooting non-human animals. As soon as he shoots a human animal, they had to investigate to make sure it wasn't sinister, even know what the hell's he doing out there with a gun shooting non-human animals to begin with. I think that's pretty damn sinister myself. Let's see what the comments have to say about this. How do you accidentally shoot a person? I don't know. It's just a moving animal in the dark, isn't it? I mean, what is the morally significant difference between shooting a human and shooting a rabbit?  They're both sentient. Well, it's because the human's more intelligent. You can't shoot the human.  Okay, yeah, we have a massive double standard as a society. John says a hunter shouldn't be out lamping in the first place. I agree with you, mate. The hunter shouldn't be out hunting in the first place. Thomas says, you totally agree. You shouldn't shoot at something you can't clearly see or identify. Should be charged and licensed or evoked. So if you can identify that it's a non-human animal and you shoot them in the face, that's completely fine with you. Well, it's definitely not fine with me. Moving on to September 2009. This one here is really interesting. A dog shot dead after being mistaken for a fox, which is an animal that looks almost identical to a dog.  I'm just genuinely heartbroken. Someone has taken away my best friend, the owner said. So let me get this straight.  But as soon as he shoots a dog, then all of a sudden it's an outrage.  That is really sad actually. But you know what else is sad? Animals being shot in the skull in the beef industry. Animals being shot in the skull in the veal industry. Animals being shot in the skull so you can have land. So there's two tragedies here.  Just another crazy point of hypocrisy here. Horrible, horrifying, but look into animal agriculture in the UK and I'm sure you'll just be even more shocked at the torture and the violence and the cruelty.  We've got another one here in the New York Post. Hunter using animal caller is mistaken for coyote and killed. A hunter who's using an animal caller was fatally shot by a man with an AR-15. He said he mistook the sounds for a coyote. So again, we've got a hunter just mistaking someone for a dog and shooting the man. So both these two hunters were out there shooting coyotes. One hunter has a coyote calling device. Makes a sound. The other hunter thinks he's a coyote and shoots him dead. How's that for karma in action? Here's a picture of Michael Smith with a dead deer.  He also shoots herbivorous animals. So these hunters are out there shooting innocent animals all the time. This guy here is going to prison for shooting a human animal. When they're out there shooting non-human animals all day and no one blinks an eye. So here we go. We've got one final story from January 2023. We've got a French hunter avoids prison time over killing a man he had mistaken for a boar. A French hunter on Thursday avoided prison over the killing of a Franco-British man he had mistaken for a boar. Disappointing relatives and friends who had wanted a stiffer penalty. He was given a two-year suspended jail term and banned for hunting for life. Meanwhile, the organizer of the hunt received an 18-month suspended sentence in a five-year hunting ban. The message has been sent that if you kill someone there is absolutely no consequences, said Peggy, a friend of Keynes. Let's just think this through, this one here.  Miss takes a human animal for a non-human animal, shoots a human animal.  So basically you see a lot of hunters mistaking some animals for other animals and animals for human beings, beings for beings.   And I just think that we should be consistent when it comes to these animals that are being shot. If you don't want to be shot yourself, especially if it's unjustifiable. There are reasons to shoot people, I don't know if they're encroaching on your home and about to kill your family, yes.  There are justified reasons to enact violence. There are unjustified reasons to enact violence. The majority of hunting is unjustifiable. It's just very interesting to see people get upset when certain animals are shot and not so upset when other animals are shot. Upset when human animals are shot, not so upset when non-human animals are shot. In the case of a bear, the bear could attack the guy and they were more upset that the bear got killed than they were with the guy being attacked. Even though the guy was out there shooting baby rabbits to death, no one said anything about the rabbits. It just goes to show the hierarchy of care for different species. So rabbits, don't worry about them at all, no one cares about rabbits, similar to rats, you know? But rabbits, maybe a little higher than rats. And then you've got this human being here who was out there shooting the rabbits, but the bear almost was above the human being in this situation, maybe.  Guys out there both trying to hunt other animals and their human ends up shooting another human. All of this moral inconsistency, and then, you know, one of the charges that hunters could just levy at the meat-eating population if they've got a problem with hunting is that, well, you pay for someone else to torture and kill animals anyway.  Because I eat them. Why? Because I eat them. What does the f*** do to you? All right, your own video. I eat them. Do you buy meat from the supermarket? Yeah, but we're not going to...  They get killed even...  Nasty, a whole bunch of blood leaking. That's why I'm saying that's why you don't want that. All of them are eating meat. Hunters are out there shooting their own animals, which I think is just murder. The public are out there paying for animals to be factory farmed and tortured and killed as well. So they can't really point the finger at hunters, can they? And I'm over here thinking it's all wrong and unjustifiable. Why doesn't everyone just live consistent and be vegan? So leave your thoughts down below. What do you think of these stories? And I'll see you all in the next video. Peace.


One must understand that the Arab oil embargo crisis of 1973 to 1974 came with a precursory series of events. Extremely high regional tensions after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War crippled the many attempts of peaceful negotiations and potential reconciliation by the concerned parties. The main goal was to achieve a systematic return of Egyptian and Syrian lands still occupied by Israel. But all attempts failed from the very beginning. A major obstacle for resolution as perceived by Arab nations was the United States' political favoritism and unrelenting backing of Israel, regardless of how unfair or unsubstantiated the Israeli position was. From 1972 to May 1973, warnings by Arabs to the United States and Europe went unheeded. Warnings that without the support of evenly balanced negotiations by the West, such unsympathetic inactivity could lead to subsequent Arab military action against Israel and in parallel the weaponization of oil. But let me digress. I want to share a side story that summarizes the attitudes of the times.  Attitudes that were conceited and contemptuous. It is well documented that prior to the Yom Kippur War by some time and during a press conference at the White House after meeting with the United States President Richard Nixon, the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Amr Saqaf commented that an oil embargo was a very likely possibility due to America's hesitation in taking an active and fair stance in negotiations. An American reporter mockingly shouted in response that the Saudis could drink their oil. A Saqaf's retort? Alright, we will. Now back to our main storyline. The West concededly brushed off any reality checks given by the Arabs. Vanding together and delivering such a strong position was in Western opinion a bluff and would never come to pass. And within a few months, the Yom Kippur War started on October 6, 1973 when the Egyptian army overcame the Israeli Defense Forces and crossing the Suez Canal. In parallel, OAPEC, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries began its first phase of oil production cuts by reducing their overall output by 5% and promising further cuts of up to 5% per month. On October 11, and while meeting with Arab leaders, Nixon guarantees that a peaceful and honorable resolution will take place driven by him and Henry Kissinger, the same way he managed to conclude the Vietnam War. In the meantime, Israel was suffering great losses of personnel, equipment and territory. In Goldemir, the Israeli Prime Minister pled with the United States to urgently provide military supplies and financial support. A few days later, the Arabs initiate Phase 2 of the embargo by applying a further 5% production in oil production and institutes a partial embargo on the United States, Netherlands, Rhodesia, South Africa and Portugal, all of whom are Israel's allies. On October 18, the United States grants Israel $2.2 billion in aid, almost three times the requested value, and begins a massive airlift to Israel, providing military support and equipment. A day later, a total embargo is placed on the United States due to the duplicity of Nixon's promises to the Arabs in brokering peace versus the United States' most recent actions in financially and militarily supporting Israel. On October 26, the Yom Kippur War ends with a signed armistice temporarily ceasing military activities by both parties. Oil production in December 1973 drops to 75% of September production levels, with more cuts threatened. In early 1974, Europe is hit hard and heavy by the embargo, as its petroleum imports are mainly dependent on the Middle East. Oil prices quadruple in value, leaving many developed nations in a state of operational chaos. Local pressure mounts in the United States due to gasoline skyrocketing prices and shortages across the country. The New York Stock Exchange loses $90 billion in market value, and industries are brought into sudden decline. Negotiations for settlement on the various land disputes, now pushed by motivated United States and Europe, begin between Egypt and Israel, characterized by more even-handed approach and fairness. In March 1974, the Arab oil embargo comes to an end, as Israel withdraws its final troops from the Suez Canal and the western part of Sinai. No one can be sure about the level of success that the Arab oil embargo had on the world at the time. Arabs believed that the embargo brought about a change in political and economic attitude in how the West viewed the Middle East.  But what one can be sure about is that oil was now not only a weapon, but a facilitating and primary driving factor for going to war and protecting the nation's energy security. Post embargo, it became recognized that oil and its guaranteed supply was an Achilles' Hue for the developed world, and for the West and mainly the United States to be in such a position, a position of weakness and dependence, was never going to be acceptable again.